Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 03/21/12

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ

920 PM EDT TUE MAR 20 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK COASTAL LOW PRESSURE NEAR NORFOLK VIRGINIA WILL DISSIPATE WEDNESDAY.
OTHERWISE...STRONG AND LARGE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST NORTH OF BERMUDA
WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD THIS WEEKEND. THAT WILL PERMIT A COLD FRONT TO
SETTLE SOUTH INTO DELMARVA FRIDAY. THEREAFTER...PLAINS STATES LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS EASTWARD ALONG THAT FRONT TO NEAR DELMARVA SUNDAY
MORNING AND THEN OUT TO SEA SUNDAY EVENING. A SOUTHWARD EXTENSION
OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE ALONG THE EAST COAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
WE STARTED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY ALONG COASTAL AREAS OF NEW
JERSEY WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST. THIS MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED
FARTHER TO THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. SO FAR THIS EVENING THERE HAS
BEEN MORE STRATUS THAN PATCHY DENSE FOG. THE STRATUS IS OUT
RUNNING THE DENSER FOG AND MAY PROTECT FARTHER INLAND PLACES FOR
A WHILE. THUS CONFIDENCE ABOUT INCLUDING THE DENSE FOG ADVY IN
THESE AREAS IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH ATTM. WEB AND TRAFFIC CAMS ARE
SHOWING SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG IN COASTAL NEW JERSEY, NOT YET IN
DELAWARE.

OTHERWISE, THE OFFSHORE SHOWERS ARE NOT MAKING MUCH LATITUDINAL
PROGRESS ABOVE 40N. HRRR STILL SUGGESTING THEY MIGHT MAKE IT INTO
THE EXTREME NE PART OF OUR CWA OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE STILL NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE A LOW CHANCE. TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS
WERE TWEAKED CLOSER TO EACH OTHER, OVERALL NOT TOO MANY CHANGES
FROM THE TWO PREVIOUS ESTF FORECASTS. THE MESO LOW IS WEAKENING
IN DELMARVA, BUT THE WEAK ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD PERSIST OVERNIGHT.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
LOOKS LIKE WEDNESDAY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY, WITH THE FOG
AND LOW CLOUDS GRADUALLY GIVING WAY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL ACTUALLY BE BUILDING INTO
A BERMUDA TYPE HIGH. LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH LATE IN THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL, ONCE AGAIN,
CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S AND 70S, WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS
ALONG COASTAL SECTIONS.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TEMPS: CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THIS PERIOD THOUGH THE EXCESSIVE
15 TO 25 DEGREE CALENDER DAY ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH OF THIS WEEK WILL
BE TEMPORARILY SUBDUED TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL LATER THIS WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

ALOFT: THE BROAD VERY STRONG RIDGE WITH ITS STRONGEST N-S AXIS JUST
WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL BE CUT BACK ON ITS EASTERN ATLANTIC
FLANK BY A SERIES OF STRONG SHORT WAVES. TWO OF THOSE SHORT WAVES
MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE VICINITY HUDSON BAY CANADA THROUGH THE
MARITIMES (1) THURSDAY FRIDAY AND (2) SUNDAY MONDAY...WHILE THE
HUGE SOUTHERN ROCKIES VORTEX SLOWLY WEAKENS AFTER ITS NORTHEASTWARD
EXIT OUT OF THE PLAINS STATES FRIDAY...SHOVING EASTWARD OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE SUNDAY.

SURFACE: STRONG HIGH PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF BERMUDA WILL SHIFT
SOUTHWARD THIS WEEKEND PERMITTING A CANADIAN COLD FRONT TO
SETTLE SOUTH INTO DELMARVA FRIDAY. THEREAFTER THE REMAINS OF THE
PLAINS STATES LOW TRACKS ALONG THE FRONT TO NEAR DELMARVA. THERE
MAY BE A BURST OF RELATIVELY CHILLY /NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR/ CANADIAN AIR IN ITS WAKE BY TUESDAY BUT THIS IS STILL IN
THE CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY TIME FRAME.

THE DAILIES...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...BLENDED 12Z/20 NCEP MOS
GUIDANCE BENEATH THE RELATIVELY DRY ALOFT-STRONG RIDGE. LIGHT WIND.
FOG AND STRATUS...MAY NOT BE QUITE AS EXTENSIVE. THE REASONING...A
TENDENCY FOR A WLY BL WIND DEVELOPING EARLY THU. CALLED IT PATCHY
FOG FOR NOW AND MAY NOT HAVE ENOUGH FOG MENTIONED IN THE ZONES.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON FRIDAY...WIND TENDS TO
BECOME WESTERLY AND WARMER. A VERY GOOD CHANCE OF RECORD WARMTH ON
ONE OF THESE TWO DAYS...THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. CONTINUED RELATIVELY
DRY...IN PART BECAUSE OF THE NEAR 560 WARM THICKNESSES AND NO FOLIAGE
EVAPOTRANSPIRATION CONTRIBUTION. NCEP MOS POPS AGREE WITH THE DRY
PATTERN CONTINUING...DESPITE A CFP...POSSIBLY THRU THE WARMEST
TIME OF THE DAY. THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY AND WE MAY EVENTUALLY
NEED TO ADD A CHC OF A SHOWER OR TSTM FRIDAY. THE ECMWF HAS COOLER
MAX TEMPS ON THURSDAY THAN WHAT WE HAVE POSTED BUT THIS MAY IN
PART BE DUE TO ITS TRYING TO FCST A SHOWER DURING MIDDAY THURSDAY.
FOR NOW...WE ARE DRY AND WARMER THAN THE 12Z/20 ECMWF AND CLOSE TO
12/20 NCEP MEX GUIDANCE.

THIS WEEKEND...A RAINY PERIOD EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
PLAINS STATES LOW TURNING EAST OR ESE TOWARD THE DELMARVA. THE
COMBINATION OF RAIN...AN ONSHORE MARITIME FLOW OFF THE COLDER SSTS
OF THE ATLANTIC /WHICH ARE VARIABLE BUT NEAR 10C/ AND A SWD
INJECTION OF COLDER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
WILL ADD A COOLER FLAVOR COMPARED TO THE READINGS OF THIS
WORKWEEK. HPC GUIDANCE TEMPS ACCEPTED WHICH ARE COLDER THAN THE
12Z/20 GFS MEX GUIDANCE TEMPS. TODAY`S EC STICKS WITH THESE COLDER
TEMPS. OUR POPS ARE LIKELY FOR NOW... BUT UNDOUBTEDLY THERE HAS TO
BE INTERMITTENT RAIN FOR AT LEAST ONE OF THESE TWO WEEKEND DAYS
AND THERE MAY BE E QUITE A LOT. WOULD NOT SURPRISE TO SEE 2 INCH
AMTS...ESPECIALLY S NJ SE PA SWD CLOSER TO SLOW MOVING CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS /THUNDER IS A POSSIBILITY THERE BUT NOT GRIDDED ATTM/.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...NCEP FAIR WX GUIDANCE ACCEPTED AS HIGH PRESSURE
APPROACHES WITH A DECENT BURST OF NLY FLOW CAA...STILL A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL BUT NOT NEARLY THE RECENT EXTREMES.

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

WE ARE VERY CONFIDENT ABOUT IFR CONDITIONS SPREADING ACROSS THE
TERMINALS THIS EVENING AND ENVELOPING ALL BY 06Z OVERNIGHT. THE
CONFIDENCE FACTOR THOUGH IT MAY BE MORE STRATUS AND LESS DENSE FOG.
CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR THE COAST AND TIMING IN GENERAL WAS
ZERO TO TWO HOURS FASTER THAN LAST NIGHT. WE ARE FORECASTING
PREVAILING LIFR CONDITIONS TO OCCUR INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WE
FOLLOWED THE SAME IMPROVEMENT SCENARIO AS TODAY, VSBYS GO VFR
ABOUT AN HOUR BEFORE THE IFR STRATUS CIG DISSIPATES TO VFR
CONDITIONS. EXCEPTION IS WE HELD THE IFR STRATUS CIG LONGER INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AT KACY. NOT CONFIDENT ABOUT KACY, BUT
ELSEWHERE FORECAST MOISTURE LEVELS ABOVE THE GROUND ARE MEAGER
ENOUGH THAT ONLY SCATTERED NON CIG VFR CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
IN THE AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL START LIGHT FROM THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST AND BECOME CALM
IN MOST PLACES. THE PREVAILING DIRECTION ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH. A SEA AND POSSIBLY BAY BREEZE FRONT SHOULD
FORM ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH MORE DETAILS AS WE COME CLOSER IN
TIME.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AT LEAST PATCHY IFR/LIFR STRATUS AND FOG ARE
PROBABLE AGAIN...ESPECIALLY LATE. LIGHT WIND TRENDING SW LATE.

THURSDAY...ANY MORNING IFR/LIFR GIVES WAY TO VFR CONDS AND WIND
TRENDING SW OR W IN THE AFTN G10-15 KTS.

FRIDAY...VFR. LIGHT WLY WIND AHEAD OF THE CFP THEN SHIFTING N OR E
FOLLOWING CFP. IFR STRATUS OR FOG MAY DEVELOP AT NIGHT IN THE LIGHT
ATLANTIC MARITIME EASTERLY FLOW. /LOW PROB A LINE OF SCT SHOWERS OR
TSTMS NEAR THE CF FRIDAY AFTN?/

THIS WEEKEND...MVFR/IFR CONDS DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY IN SHOWERY RAINS WITH E FLOW SAT AND GUSTY N-NE FLOW 15 TO
25 KTS SUNDAY. SMALL CHC OF THUNDER S OF PHL.

.MARINE...
A WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED NEAR THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND AND A VERY WEAK MESO
LOW JUST TO OUR SOUTH OFF THE DELMARVA COAST. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THIS PERIOD. E WINDS 5 TO 10
KT WILL BECOME SE WEDNESDAY AND THEN TURN MORE S`RLY LATE IN THE DAY.

THE LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE VERY MOIST AND WILL ALLOW FOG TO
FORM OR MOVE BACK OVER OUR WATERS TONIGHT. SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW
SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HANGING ALONG COASTAL SECTIONS THIS
AFTERNOON. ONCE THE DAYTIME HEATING ENDS, THIS AREA SHOULD EXPAND
RATHER QUICKLY. IF VSBYS DROP LOW ENOUGH OVER A WIDE PORTION OF
OUR AREA, A MARINE ADVISORY, OR AT THE VERY LEAST, A MARINE WEATHER
STATEMENT MAY BE NEEDED. ALL MARINERS SHOULD BE AWARE THAT VSBYS
COULD DROP QUICKLY IN AREAS OF FOG LATER TONIGHT. THE FOG WILL
LIFT WEDNESDAY, MUCH AS IT DID TODAY.

OUTLOOK...
NO HEADLINES ATTM FORESEEN THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. LIGHT WINDS...
TENDING TO BE MAINLY SOUTH OR SE WITH A CFP OF SHIFTING WIND FRIDAY.

A STRONG PROBABILITY FOR STRONG SCA CONDITIONS LATE SATURDAY OR
MORE LIKELY SUNDAY IN STRENGTHENING NE FLOW SHIFTING N AND ATLC
SEAS BUILDING TO 6-8 FT.

.CLIMATE...
RECORD MAXS NOT ALL OF THESE WILL BE AT RISK OF EXCEEDENCE.

TODAY`S REVIEW OF FCST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS FRIDAY THE MORE
LIKELY DAY FOR MANY RECORDS BUT...IF THERE IS NO RAIN ON THURSDAY AND
A DECENT WSW WIND WITH PLENTY OF SS...THERE WOULD ALSO BE A NUMBER
OF RECORDS ON THURSDAY AS WELL.

3/22 3/23

ACY 84-1948 79-1907 POR 1874
PHL 80-1948 78-1938/1907 POR 1872
ILG 82-1948 78-1994/1923 POR 1894
ABE 75-1929 73-1979/1923 POR 1922
TTN 79-1938 79-1938 POR 1865
GED 78-1955 80-2007 POR 1948
RDG 83-1938 79-1938 POR 1869
MPO 73-1938 70-1938 POR 1901

FOR THE THE FIRST 19 DAYS... DAILY MEAN TEMPS SO FAR ARE

KABE PLUS 10.7F
KACY PLUS 9.1F
KGED PLUS 9.2F
KPHL PLUS 8.9F
KRDG PLUS 10.2F
KTTN PLUS 11.0F
KILG PLUS 8.8F
KMPO PLUS 12.0F

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ012>014-
020>027.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...GIGI/RPW
SHORT TERM...RPW
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...DRAG/GIGI
MARINE...DRAG/RPW
CLIMATE...DRAG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

949 PM CDT TUE MAR 20 2012

.DISCUSSION...
900 PM CDT

TEMPERATURES REMAIN VERY MILD ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...ON
THE HEELS OF REACHING OR AT LEAST TYING A DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE
RECORD FOR ONE WEEK STRAIGHT AT CHICAGO AND FOR SIX OF THOSE DAYS
AT ROCKFORD.

THE GOES WATER VAPOR LOOP THIS EVENING SHOWS THE WELL-DEFINED
CLOSED UPPER LOW SHIFTING EAST INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF THE
SOUTH. VERY ANOMALOUS DUE SOUTH 60 TO 80 KT 500 MB FLOW IS EVIDENT
ON ALMOST ALL PROFILERS/RAOBS FROM EASTERN OK AND AR UP THROUGH
MN. MOIST PLUME WITHIN THIS IS STARTING TO SPREAD EAST SOME THIS
EVENING...WITH CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES NOT WARMING MUCH ON IR INTO
WESTERN IL. RUC AND NAM 400 MB RH SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO DRAW THIS
OVER AT LEAST THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA...WHICH MAKES SENSE. THIS
SHOULD THIN SOMEWHAT LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING AS SHORT
WAVE ENERGY ACROSS MO LIFTS DUE NORTH TOWARDS MN...ALLOWING THE
MOIST PUSH FROM THE WEST TO EASE. THE CLOUDS TONIGHT WILL HELP
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING MUCH...ALLOWING FOR AN EASY BREAK OF THE
WARM LOWS FOR MARCH 20TH...AND SET THE STAGE FOR MARCH 21ST TO
POTENTIALLY FLIRT WITH ALL TIME WARM LOWS FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH
AT BOTH LONG TERM CLIMATE SITES /SEE CLIMO DISCUSSION BELOW/. THIS
IS ACCOUNTED FOR WELL IN THE GOING GRIDS. THE WARM MINIMUM VALUES
WILL ALLOW FOR A VERY MILD STARTING POINT WEDNESDAY...WHICH SHOULD
AGAIN SEE RECORD SMASHING WARMTH AS UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA REMAIN STAGNANT THROUGH THE DAY.

MTF

//PREV DISCUSSION...
255 PM CDT

NEAR CLOUDLESS SKIES THIS AFTERNOON HAVE DEVELOPED OVER ALL OF
NORTHERN IL/NORTHWEST IN. THE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER CONTINUES TO BE
ORIENTED FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO NORTH THROUGH EASTERN
TEXAS...KANSAS...BENDING NORTHEAST THROUGH WESTERN WISCONSIN. BROAD
500MB RIDGING CONTINUES TO HOLD THIS FEATURE WEST OF THE CWFA
TONIGHT...AND MOST LIKELY WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. STRONG
MIXING HAS TAKEN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA...WITH BREEZY
WINDS TO 35 MPH. THIS HAS ALLOWED DECENT SUBSIDENCE AT THE SFC WITH
DEW POINTS PUSHING INTO THE 40S...AND AFTN RH VALUES INTO THE
MID/UPR 20 PERCENT RANGE. THUS A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN HOISTED
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. THE EXPECTATION IS THAT ONCE BEYOND THE PEAK
HEATING LATE THIS AFTN/EARLY EVE...THE STRONG MIXING WILL BEGIN TO
RELAX AND RH VALUES WILL BEGIN TO RISE ABOVE RED FLAG CONDITIONS.

FLOW WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH MINIMAL
CLOUD SHIELDING. SO THE GREATEST CHALLENGE WILL BE HOW COOL TEMPS
WILL RADIATE TONIGHT. MOST GUIDANCE MEMBERS HAVE HOVERED AROUND
TEMPS IN THE UPR 50S/NEAR 60 DEG. THE CONCERN IS THAT GIVEN THE
SUPPRESSED DEW POINTS FROM THIS AFTN...OVERNIGHT LOWS MAY RADIATE
FURTHER. THE LARGEST LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE THAT WINDS SHUD REMAIN
LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH. THIS MAY CREATE ENOUGH FRICTION TO LIMIT HOW
MUCH COOLING ACTUALLY TAKES PLACE AT THE SFC...AND MAINTAIN SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPS.

FOR WEDNESDAY THE 850MB THERMAL RIDGE REMAINS OVERHEAD...WITH TEMPS
BTWN 12 AND 14 DEG C. THIS COMBINED WITH THE EXPECTED STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW...MINIMAL CLOUD COVER...VERY MILD OVERNIGHT
LOWS...WILL SET THE STAGE FOR RECORD BREAKING WARMTH YET AGAIN WITH
TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 80S. A FEW LOCATIONS COULD EASILY PUSH INTO THE
MID 80S...ESPECIALLY SOME OF THE FAVORED URBAN
AREAS AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IL. FURTHER WEST THE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER
WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT EAST...AS THE 500MB SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO BECOME
CUTOFF. HOWEVER...ENOUGH RIDGING INFLUENCE REMAINS OVER THE CWFA TO
LIMIT ANY PRECIP UNTIL CLOSER TO DAYBREAK THUR POSSIBLY LATE THUR
MORNING. AS CLOUDS SLOWLY INCREASE ALOFT WED NGT AND THICKEN...TEMPS
SHUD REMAIN MILD YET AGAIN. IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT TEMPS MAY NOT
DROP BELOW 60 DEG...WITH SEVERAL LOCATIONS REMAINING IN THE LOW/MID
60S.

CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.

THURSDAY...
500MB SHORTWAVE BECOMES CUTOFF AND CONTINUES TO STEADILY DRIFT
NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARDS THE WESTERN OHIO RIVER
VALLEY THUR. VARIOUS GUIDANCE MEMBERS HAVE SUGGESTED THAT PRECIP MAY
BE KNOCKING ON THE DOOR STEPS OF NORTHERN IL/NORTHWEST IN EARLY
THUR...WHILE A FEW OTHER MEMBERS HAVE HELD ONTO THE RIDGE INFLUENCE
AND DRY IDEA SLIGHTLY LONGER. CONFIDENCE IS THAT PRECIP SHUD ARRIVE
ARND DAYBREAK...AND HAVE ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY. IT APPEARS
ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL EXIST ALOFT TO WARRANT THE MENTION OF
THUNDER...HOWEVER IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE WIDESPREAD. THUS HAVE
HELD ONTO A SLT CHC OF THUNDER. TEMPS WILL NOT WARM AS MUCH AS IN
PREVIOUS DAYS...HOLDING MAINLY IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S. IT MAY BE
POSSIBLE THAT FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA COULD PUSH INTO THE
UPR 70S OR NEAR 80...BUT WILL HINGE UPON HOW THICK THE CLOUD SHIELD
ENDS UP BEING AT DAYBREAK.

POPS STILL LOOK LIKELY DURING MIDDAY THUR...THRU THE AFTN HOURS THEN
BEGIN TO FALL THROUGH THE EVENING TIMEFRAME. GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED
TO SUGGEST A DRY SLOT ARRIVING ARND 00Z FRI..HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS
LOW THAT THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE PRECIP. THUS HAVE MAINTAINED
POPS THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO FRI.

CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
MINIMAL SPREAD AMONGST ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WITH REGARDS TO THE 500MB
WAVE PATTERN. CUTOFF LOW CONTINUES TO SHOW STEADY WEAKENING FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK...THEN EVENTUALLY BECOMES ABSORBED INTO THE RIDGE.
THE DOWNSTREAM TROUGH OVER THE ATLANTIC BEGINS TO WEAKEN...HOWEVER
IT APPEARS AN UPSTREAM TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP YET AGAIN ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. THIS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT AFTER THE BRIEF
COOL DOWN INTO THE LOW/MID 60S FOR THE WEEKEND...TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO
RISE INTO THE UPR 60S/LOW 70S FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. THIS
FEATURE HAS SOME VALIDITY TO IT GIVEN THE BUILDING MID-LVL RIDGE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL US DRIFTING EAST.

PRECIP CHCS WILL CONTINUE THRU SAT...THEN AS THE CUTOFF LOW DRIFTS
FURTHER EAST DRY AIR SHOULD RETURN FOR SUN/MON.

TEMPERATURE CONFIDENCE...HIGH.
PRECIPITATION CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.

BEACHLER

.CLIMATE...
900 PM CDT

CHICAGO ROCKFORD
HIGH WARM LOW HIGH WARM LOW
MAR 20: 53 (1918) 53 (1921)
MAR 21: 77 (1938) 54 (1918) 78 (1938) 53 (1948)

ALL TIME WARMEST FOR SO EARLY IN THE SEASON:
CHICAGO ROCKFORD
HIGH WARM LOW HIGH WARM LOW
82 (3/17/2012) 62 (3/13/1990) 82 (3/17/2012) 62 (3/19/2012)

ALL TIME RECORDS FOR MARCH:
CHICAGO ROCKFORD
HIGH WARM LOW HIGH WARM LOW
88 (3/29/2986) 66 (3/29/1998) 85 (3/29/1986) 63 (3/29/1998)

IZZI

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 02Z...

* GENERALLY SOUTH WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD...GUSTING TO 20-25KT
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

KREIN

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 00Z...

WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND LOW PRESSURE REMAINING NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER THE SOUTH HIGH PLAINS...WINDS WILL REMAIN
SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD. UNDER FILTERED SUNSHINE
TOMORROW...WINDS SHOULD GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25KT THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTH HIGH PLAINS SHOULD BEGIN
TO LIFT SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD TOMORROW...SPREADING SOME MORE HIGH
CLOUD OVER THE REGION.

KREIN

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 02Z...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL FORECAST ELEMENTS.

KREIN

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 00Z...

THURSDAY...VFR...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE
EVENING...MVFR BECOMING POSSIBLE.

FRIDAY...OCCASIONAL SHRA WITH TSRA POSSIBLE EARLY...MVFR POSSIBLE AT
TIMES.

SATURDAY...CHANCE SHRA EARLY...OTHERWISE...VFR.

SUNDAY...VFR. WX NIL.

MONDAY...VFR. WX NIL.

KREIN

.MARINE...

239 PM...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
24 HRS OR SO. LARGE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THURSDAY AND BEGIN TO WEAKEN FRIDAY AS
IT DRIFTS EAST OVER THE ATLANTIC. THE GRADIENT HAS TIGHTENED OVER
THE WESTERN LAKES TODAY AND DEEP MIXING HAS ALLOWED GUSTS INTO THE
30 KT RANGE ACROSS THE ILLINOIS AND INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS.
HOWEVER...THE STABLE MARINE LAYER OVER THE COLD WATERS IS LIKELY
PREVENTING THESE STRONGER WINDS FROM MIXING TO THE SURFACE. THE
GRADIENT WEAKENS SOME TONIGHT BUT REMAINS STRONG INTO WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THIS HIGH WILL THEN BE ABSORBED BY STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE FURTHER
NORTH ACROSS HUDSON BAY. AS THIS OCCURS...THERE COULD BE A PERIOD
WHERE THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ENOUGH FOR EASTERLY WINDS AS HIGH AS
30 KTS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY OVER THE NORTH END OF THE
LAKE. THE GRADIENT THEN BECOMES FAIRLY WEAK AS BROAD WEAK LOW
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN LAKES REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. CMS

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

901 PM CDT TUE MAR 20 2012

.DISCUSSION...
900 PM CDT

MTF

.PREV DISCUSSION...
255 PM CDT

CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.

PRECIP CHCS WILL CONTINUE THRU SAT...THEN AS THE CUTOFF LOW DRIFTS
FURTHER EAST DRY AIR SHOULD RETURN FOR SUN/MON.

TEMPERATURE CONFIDENCE...HIGH.
PRECIPITATION CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.

BEACHLER

.CLIMATE...
900 PM CDT

CHICAGO ROCKFORD
HIGH WARM LOW HIGH WARM LOW
MAR 20: 53 (1918) 53 (1921)
MAR 21: 77 (1938) 54 (1918) 78 (1938) 53 (1948)

ALL TIME WARMEST FOR SO EARLY IN THE SEASON:
CHICAGO ROCKFORD
HIGH WARM LOW HIGH WARM LOW
82 (3/17/2012) 62 (3/13/1990) 82 (3/17/2012) 62 (3/19/2012)

ALL TIME RECORDS FOR MARCH:
CHICAGO ROCKFORD
HIGH WARM LOW HIGH WARM LOW
88 (3/29/2986) 66 (3/29/1998) 85 (3/29/1986) 63 (3/29/1998)

IZZI

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 00Z...

* SOUTH WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD...GUSTING TO 20-25KT TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.

KREIN

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 00Z...

KREIN

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 00Z...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL FORECAST ELEMENTS.

KREIN

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 00Z...

THURSDAY...VFR...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE
EVENING...MVFR BECOMING POSSIBLE.

FRIDAY...OCCASIONAL SHRA WITH TSRA POSSIBLE EARLY...MVFR POSSIBLE AT
TIMES.

SATURDAY...CHANCE SHRA EARLY...OTHERWISE...VFR.

SUNDAY...VFR. WX NIL.

MONDAY...VFR. WX NIL.

KREIN

.MARINE...

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 10 PM TUESDAY.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTHERN INDIANA

415 PM EDT MON MAR 19 2012

.SHORT TERM... /THROUGH TONIGHT/

ISOLATED SHOWERS POPPING HERE AND THERE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA. MOST PERSISTENT AND STRONGEST STORM DEVELOPED IN
SOUTHERN LAPORTE COUNTY AND HAS BEEN REDEVELOPING SE WITH TIME AS
THE STORM CYCLES. THIS STORM WILL MOVE TOWARDS SOUTH BEND OVER THE
NEXT HOUR OR SO WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLY SOME SMALL
HAIL. OTHERWISE...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE FORMING
UPSTREAM ACROSS EC ILLINOIS INTO FAR WESTERN INDIANA. SFC BASED
CAPES OF 2000 J/KG AND LI`S TO -6 C WERE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA.
HRRR FIRES EVEN MORE CONVECTION WITH TIME INTO EARLY EVENING ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA. THINK HRRR MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE ON ITS
COVERAGE...BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR EXPANDING COVERAGE AS OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES FROM ST JOE COUNTY CONVECTION MAY EXPAND COVERAGE
SOMEWHAT. ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE BY EARLY EVENING AS LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING OCCURS AND BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO COOL.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN BE IN STORE FROM MID EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH LOWS DROPPING BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT
SEE ANY RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT
OF THE ZONES FOR THE TIME BEING.

.LONG TERM...
TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY. FEW CHANGES TO AFFORD WRT MED-LONG TERM
FCST PD. CENTROID OF STALWART RIDGE AMASSES INTO WRN OH BY WED
EVE. CONTINUED STRONG INSOLATION AMID STAGNANT AIRMASS CONTS TO
SUPPORT PROGRESSIVELY WARMER TEMPS INTO WED WITH WED AFTN LKLY
WARMEST...DARE I SAY HOTTEST AS LLVL THERMAL FIELD REACHES APEX.
CONT TO WHITTLE AWAY AT LAKE SHADOW AS STRONG SRLY FLOW TO KEEP
DTC RESPONSE OFFSHORE. WITH INCREASED AGREEMENT WRT TIMING OF 5H
CUTOFF HOLDING SOUTH OF TEXAS RED RIVER VALLEY THROUGH 18 UTC
WED...THEREAFTER ONLY SLOWLY LIFTING NEWD TO KS/MO BORDER FRIDAY
MORNING BEFORE TAKING ON A MORE ERLY EXODUS AS NEXT EPAC TROF
DIGS AND IMPARTS DOWNSTREAM BROAD FLAT RIDGING FM WRN TX TO ERN
MT/DAKOTAS. GIVEN SLOWER TREND OF MID/UL PATTERN HAVE REMOVED POPS
THU AMID POOR MID LVL LAPSE RATES AND ACYCLONIC MIDLVL FLOW AND
ABSENCE OF PARTICULAR FOCI. TRENDED POPS HIR ON FRIDAY AS MIDLVL
COLD POOL NEARS WITH MORE FAVORABLE CLOSED CORE LOW CONCEPTUAL
MODEL. INCRSD DIVERGENCE BYND DY6 THOUGH TEND TO FAVOR MORE SERLY
TURN OF ECMWF. GIVEN BREADTH AND SLOW ERLY PROGRESSION INTO HIGH
HGHT ANOMALY...SUSPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ERLY NEXT WEEK TO ONCE
AGAIN SEGUE INTO A PD OF MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.

.AVIATION /18 UTC TAFS/...
INSTABILITY INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA WITH CU FIELD EXPANDING IN
SEVERAL PARTS OF THE REGION. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP
WITH THE STRONGEST CURRENTLY BETWEEN TAF SITES. LACK OF STRONG
FORCING AND CONVERGENCE WILL CAUSE COVERAGE OF ANY CONVECTION TO
BE ISOL TO SCT AT BEST. INITIAL SURGE OF CONVECTION MAY END UP
DEVELOPING OVER BOTH AIRPORTS...MOVING NE WITH TIME. ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION MAY FIRE BACK TO THE SW WITH HRRR MODEL HINTING FOR
SEVERAL RUNS AT SCT- NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING BY MID
AFTERNOON. WILL STAY CONSERVATIVE FOR THE TIME BEING WITH ONLY CB
MENTION AT BOTH SITES. AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS AS CONVECTIVE SCENARIO BECOMES CLEARER.

AFTER SUNSET...CONVECTION SHOULD QUICKLY WANE LEAVING BEHIND VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...MURPHY
AVIATION...BENTLEY/FISHER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTHERN INDIANA

136 PM EDT MON MAR 19 2012

.AVIATION... /18Z TAFS/
INSTABILITY INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA WITH CU FIELD EXPANDING IN
SEVERAL PARTS OF THE REGION. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP
WITH THE STRONGEST CURRENTLY BETWEEN TAF SITES. LACK OF STRONG
FORCING AND CONVERGENCE WILL CAUSE COVERAGE OF ANY CONVECTION TO
BE ISOL TO SCT AT BEST. INITIAL SURGE OF CONVECTION MAY END UP
DEVELOPING OVER BOTH AIRPORTS...MOVING NE WITH TIME. ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION MAY FIRE BACK TO THE SW WITH HRRR MODEL HINTING FOR
SEVERAL RUNS AT SCT-NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING BY MID
AFTERNOON. WILL STAY CONSERVATIVE FOR THE TIME BEING WITH ONLY CB
MENTION AT BOTH SITES. AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS AS CONVECTIVE SCENARIO BECOMES CLEARER.

AFTER SUNSET...CONVECTION SHOULD QUICKLY WANE LEAVING BEHIND VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

.UPDATE...
UPDATE MAY BE NEEDED TO ZONES/GRIDS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
AS CU FIELD CONTINUES TO SLOWLY EXPAND ACROSS THE AREA. CU HAS
STRUGGLED TO GAIN MUCH HEIGHT...BUT A FEW CELLS HAVE MANAGED TO
INCREASE IN HGT WITH STRONGEST CELL CURRENTLY JUST SOUTH OF THE
OFFICE WHERE A LIGHTNING STRIKE WAS ALREADY NOTED. OTHER SHOWERS
WERE ACROSS STARKE AND PULASKI COUNTY. 14Z HRRR AND PREV RUNS ALL
HINTED AT CONVECTION FIRING GENERALLY WHERE IT IS NOW AND PUSHING
NE WITH TIME. ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY FIRE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH OF
THE AREA AND MOVE IN MID-LT AFTERNOON. FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN 20 TO
30 POPS GIVEN COVERAGE. IF COVERAGE INCREASES FURTHER THAN UPDATE
WILL BE WARRANTED. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND HAIL TO THREE QUARTERS
OF AN INCH IN DIAMETER WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST
CELLS...ESPECIALLY DURING COLLAPSE OF ANY STORMS.

AS FOR TEMPS...FORECAST HIGHS SEEM ON TRACK. HEATING HAS SLOWED A
BIT AT KSBN WITH CIRRUS SHIELD COMING OVERHEAD...BUT SHOULD SEE
SOME CLEARING AGAIN OVER NEXT HOUR OR 2. RECORD HIGHS ALREADY
BROKE AT BOTH SBN AND FWA.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 435 AM EDT MON MAR 19 2012/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

MUCH OF THE SAME FOR BEGINNING OF THE WEEK...WITH FORECAST ATTENTION
CENTERED ON RECORD BREAKING WARMTH AND CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.

IN THE VERY NEAR TERM...HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR
NORTHERN NORTHWEST OHIO COUNTIES AND HILLSDALE COUNTY MICHIGAN.
STRONGER RADIATIONAL COOLING ACROSS THESE LOCATIONS
EARLIER...COMBINED WITH WEAK EAST SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW COMPONENT
HAS BEEN CONDUCIVE FOR SOME WESTWARD EXPANSION OF DENSE FOG THAT
FORMED WEST OF LAKE ERIE. THIS DENSE FOG MAY NOT MAKE IT AS FAR WEST
AS THE FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTIES IN THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY BUT FOG SATELLITE PRODUCT AND OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST A SLOW
WESTWARD EXPANSION OF DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT.

THE SLOW MOVING CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED VORT MAX THAT BROUGHT
YESTERDAYS PRECIPITATION HAS EXITED INTO EASTERN OHIO THIS MORNING.
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS TRYING TO DEVELOP IN NARROW AXIS OF ENHANCED
LOW/MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION BEHIND THIS DEPARTING VORT MAX FROM
SOUTH CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN INTO NORTHWEST OHIO. RUC INITIALIZATION
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THESE SHOWERS ARE ELEVATED TO AN EXTENT MAKING IT
DIFFICULT TO REALIZE MUCH ELEVATED INSTABILITY. SIMILAR CONCERNS IN
TERMS OF MAGNITUDE OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY PERSIST ACROSS WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH SHORT TERM PROGS FROM NAM/RUC
SUGGEST WEAK AREA OF SECONDARY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/THETAE ADVECTION
SHIFTING INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA THIS MORNING THAT MAY HELP TO
ENHANCE ELEVATED INSTABILITY. A WEAK SHEARED VORT MAX ALSO LIFTING
NORTHEASTWARD DOWNSTREAM OF LARGE SCALE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH MAY
ALSO PROVIDE SOME WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO GENERATE SOME
ISOLD ELEVATED STORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS THIS AFTERNOON AND
HAVE MADE NO CHANGES TO TSRA CHANCE POPS WEST/SLIGHT CHANCE
EAST AS CONTINUED WEAK EMBEDDED WAVES LIFT INTO THE AREA. THE MOST
NOTABLE OF THESE SHORT WAVES APPEARS TO BE SITUATED FROM EASTERN
MISSOURI INTO NORTHERN ARKANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING. MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO STEEPEN TOWARD MIDDAY AS AN ELEVATED
MIXED LAYER ADVECTS NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA. SFC TEMPERATURES
WARMING TO AROUND 80 THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD COMBINE WITH THESE
STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES FOR SBCAPES ON THE ORDER OF
1000-1500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. PRESENCE OF MID LEVEL RIDGE/LOW
SHEAR WILL KEEP SEVERE THREAT LOW...WITH PERHAPS SLIGHTLY MORE
RESPECTABLE 0 TO 6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES INTO THE 20 TO 25 KNOT
RANGE ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
WILL MENTION JUST AN ISOLD HAIL/WIND THREAT IN THIS MORNINGS HWO.
IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...MIXING TO AROUND 900 HPA SHOULD SUPPORT
HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 WHICH WOULD ONCE AGAIN BREAK
THE RECORD HIGHS FOR THE DATE...76 AT FORT WAYNE AND 77 AT SOUTH
BEND...BOTH SET IN 1921.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING/AMPLIFICATION ACROSS THE ROCKIES WILL
RESULT IN DOWNSTREAM MID LEVEL HEIGHT RISES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION TONIGHT/TUESDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE IS ALSO IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT IN A DRIER POCKET OF LOW LEVEL AIR ADVECTING NORTHWARD
LATER TONIGHT AS THIS RIDGE AMPLIFIES...EFFECTIVELY SUPPRESSING
ELEVATED CONVECTION. THUS...WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY TONIGHT.
TUESDAY SHAPING UP TO BE ANOTHER DAY OF RECORD BREAKING WARMTH
WITH DEEPER MIXING THAN MONDAY...THAT SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 80S MOST LOCATIONS. THIS DEEPER MIXING AND SLIGHTLY DRIER
LOW LEVEL AIR SHOULD LIMIT DIURNAL INSTABILITY...AND WITH LARGE
SCALE RIDGE IN PLACE...WILL KEEP REMAINDER OF SHORT TERM DRY.

LONG TERM... / WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY /

TREND IN MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TO SLOW THE EASTERN PROGRESSION OF
A SOUTHERN PLAINS CUT-OFF UPPER LOW LATE THIS WEEK INTO SATURDAY.
THIS IS NOT SURPRISING GIVEN THE NATURE OF CUT-OFFS AND EXPECTED
AMPLIFICATION OF A HIGHLY ANOMALOUS EASTERN CONUS UPPER RIDGE. AS A
RESULT OPTED TO BUY INTO THIS SLOWER SOLUTION WITH THIS DEEP
TROPOSPHERIC CIRCULATION NOW PROGGED TO DRIFT TO THE MID MS VALLEY
BY FRIDAY...AND THE OH VALLEY BY SATURDAY. RAISED HIGHS SEVERAL
DEGREES...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY GIVEN THE SLOWER SOLUTION.
A COOL DOWN IN STILL IN THE WORKS FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND PER
HEIGHT FALLS AND INCREASING CLOUDS/RAIN?...STILL LIKELY REMAINING
AROUND 10 DEGREES OR SO ABOVE NORMAL BY THIS WEEKEND (COMPARED TO
EXPECTED RECORD HIGH TEMPS AROUND 30 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TO START
THE PERIOD).

SYSTEM WILL MATURE AND FILL A BIT WITH EWD DRIFT AS IT COLLIDES WITH
THE RIDGE...GETTING ITS KICK FROM ANOTHER LONGWAVE TROUGH PROGGED TO
DIG TOWARDS THE WEST COAST. GIVEN THIS EXPECT FORCING TO WEAKEN A
BIT AS IT FINALLY MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE OH VALLEY AND SRN GREAT
LAKES. HOWEVER...THERE STILL SHOULD BE A MORE ORGANIZED BAND OF
SHOWERS TO ACCOMPANY THE WEAKENING LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC
ZONE/OCCLUDED FRONT...WITH A MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORING THE
FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT PERIOD FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL LOCALLY. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ARE NOT LOOKING OVERLY IMPRESSIVE ALTHOUGH SOME LOCALIZED
HEAVIER RAIN APPEARS POSSIBLE GIVEN SUFFICIENT MOISTURE/WEAK
INSTABILITY. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS LINGER INTO SATURDAY AS THE UPPER
LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL ALOFT SHIFTS INTO REGION. OVERALL...
CHANGES TO POPS/WX WERE TO REMOVE LOWER CHC POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
LOWER THURSDAY POPS TO SLIGHT CHC. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS OTHERWISE.

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...BENTLEY/FISHER
UPDATE...FISHER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTHERN INDIANA

648 AM EDT MON MAR 19 2012

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL TODAY.

MOST OF THE FOG HAS BEEN CONFINED TO EXTREME NORTHWEST OHIO THIS
MORNING WHERE WEAK LOW LEVEL EASTERLY COMPONENT HAS PROVIDED SOME
MARINE INFLUENCE FROM LAKE ERIE. STILL SEE A LOW END POTENTIAL OF
SOME PATCHY FOG AFFECTING KFWA OVER NEXT FEW HOURS BUT MAY BE ABLE
TO PULL THIS MENTION WITH THE 12Z TAFS AS SOME INCREASING MID/HIGH
CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT THIS POTENTIAL. OTHERWISE...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...BUT SHORT
WAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS CONVECTION SHOULD TAKE A TRACK TO KEEP
THIS THREAT WEST OF TERMINALS THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...ANOTHER
UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS/SOUTHERN MISSOURI
SHOULD LIFT INTO NORTHEAST ILLINOIS/NORTHWEST INDIANA THIS
AFTERNOON. STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND WEAK TO MODERATE
INSTABILITY SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE AT LEAST ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA THIS
AFTERNOONN. GREATER COVERAGE MAY REMAIN WEST OF KSBN AND AT THIS
FORECAST DISTANCE WILL LIKELY CONFINE MENTION TO CB CLOUD GROUP AT
KSBN THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ALSO
POSSIBLE AT KFWA BUT WEAKER MID LEVEL FORCING MAKES THIS SCNEARIO
MORE QUESTIONABLE. THREAT OF PRECIP SHOULD END BY EARLY EVENING AS
MID LEVEL HEIGHTS BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. SOUTH WINDS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 18 TO 20
KNOTS EXPECTED AT KSBN THIS AFTERNOON WITH A SLIGHTLY STRONGER SFC
PRESSRUE GRADIENT IN PLACE.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 435 AM EDT MON MAR 19 2012/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

MUCH OF THE SAME FOR BEGINNING OF THE WEEK...WITH FORECAST ATTENTION
CENTERED ON RECORD BREAKING WARMTH AND CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.

LONG TERM... / WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY /

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ081.

OH...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ001-002-
004-005.

LM...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...MARSILI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTHERN INDIANA

435 AM EDT MON MAR 19 2012

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

MUCH OF THE SAME FOR BEGINNING OF THE WEEK...WITH FORECAST ATTENTION
CENTERED ON RECORD BREAKING WARMTH AND CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.

.LONG TERM... / WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY /

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS...OVERALL VERY FEW CHANGES TO THE 06Z TAFS FROM PREVIOUS
ISSUANCE WITH CONTINUED CONCERNS CENTERED ON FOG AND CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL. IN TERMS OF CONVECTION...RUC INITIALIZATION SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST MODERATE AMOUNTS OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHERN INDIANA...BUT QUESTION CONTINUES TO BE IF ENOUGH ELEVATED
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT TO OVERCOME ANY CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS WILL
LIFT INTO NORTHERN INDIANA THROUGH 09Z...AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH
FOR SOME ISOLATED CELLS DEVELOPING ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
ILLINOIS/NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA OVER NEXT 2 TO 4 HOUR PERIOD. WITH
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO...HAVE KEPT TAFS DRY WITH JUST A
CB CLOUD GROUP MENTION FROM 10Z-15Z AT KSBN. ADDITIONAL WEAK
DISTURBANCES TO EJECT NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN INDIANA ON
MONDAY WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPING AGAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP TAFS DRY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AT THIS
FORECAST DISTANCE GIVEN EXPECTED LIMITED COVERAGE. FOG ALSO WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED TONIGHT...BUT PRESENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST
MOST SIGNIFICANT FOG TO AFFECT AREAS ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEAST
INDIANA/SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN. THUS...HAVE KEPT MVFR VSBYS IN
FOG FOR BOTH KSBN AND KFWA IN THE 10-14Z TIMEFRAME.

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ081.

OH...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ001-002-
004-005.

LM...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...MARSILI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

515 PM MDT TUE MAR 20 2012

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT TUE MAR 20 2012

EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RUC H5 ANALYSIS SHOW LONGWAVE TROUGH
DRAPED ACROSS THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST WITH A CLOSED CIRCULATION
CENTERED OVER WESTERN TEXAS/EASTERN NEW MEXICO. THIS CLOSED LOW
WILL BE THE BIG WEATHER MAKER FOR OUR AREA THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.

FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE ON TRACK WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS OVER
CENTRAL KS ALREADY MOVING TOWARDS CWA. THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
SPREAD INTO THE CWA FROM THE E/SE AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH
THE NIGHTTIME PERIOD. MODEL SOUNDING ANALYSIS WOULD SUPPORT MAINLY
RAIN FOR THE EVENT. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A RAIN/SNOW CHANGE
OVER BASED ON FAVORABLE WBZ HEIGHTS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
CWA IN THE 09-12Z TIME-FRAME TONIGHT. AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY
SHIFTS NORTH...MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE INTO THE
CWA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA. I LEFT ISO THUNDERSTORM MENTION WED
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WHERE ECMWF/GFS STILL SHOWS WEAK ELEVATED
INSTABILITY. OVERALL IT LOOKS LIKE WE COULD SEE DECENT RAINFALL
OUT OF THIS WITH 0.50-1.00" OF RAIN POSSIBLE FOR THE EVENT.

AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS NORTH THURSDAY A DRY SLOT WILL WORK ITS
WAY W/NW INTO OUR CWA. GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A
BAND OF PRECIP LINGERING OVER THE WESTERN CWA THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH DECREASING COVERAGE IN THE EAST. IN THE EXTREME SE
PART OF THE CWA CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW CENTER THERE COULD STILL
BE ADDITIONAL SHOWER RE-DEVELOPMENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
COLD POOL ALOFT...SO I ONLY TRENDED POPS DOWN FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT OVER EASTERN LOCATIONS.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE HELD UP BY WIND AND
CLOUD COVER...SO VALUES SHOULD REMAIN IN MID 30S TO NEAR 40 FOR
MOST OF THE AREA. HIGH TEMPS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL ALSO BE
AFFECTED BY PRECIP/CLOUDS....WITH THE COOLEST DAY ON WEDNESDAY
WITH TEMPS STRUGGLING TO WARM ABOVE THE UPPER 40S OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL MODERATE SOME
WITH VALUES GENERALLY IN THE MID-UPPER 50S FOR MOST OF THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT TUE MAR 20 2012

A RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
AS A STRONG RIDGE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL US. WHILE THE ENTIRE
EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE ABOVE NORMAL...HIGH TEMPS SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY COULD APPROACH RECORD LEVELS SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW
DURING OUR WARM-UP LAST WEEK. HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
70S ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY...AND WITH VALUES IN THE LOW 80S OVER
A LARGE PART OF THE AREA POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST TOWARDS THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY AS THE H5 RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOW. A COLD FRONT
WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA BY TUESDAY. THE MAIN EFFECT WILL BE
TO BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION WITH VALUES IN THE LOW-
UPPER 60S FOR MUCH OF THE CWA. THERE IS SOME INDICATION OF
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH A DRY LINE LINGERING
OVER THE CWA AND INSTABILITY BUILDING INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL
KANSAS. A STRONG CAP AND VERY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE WILL LIMIT
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...SO I LEFT MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 510 PM MDT TUE MAR 20 2012

PRECIPITATION SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER
TEXAS PANHANDLE STILL TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
TERMINALS. CURRENT THINKING IS FOR GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS TO
DIMINISH BY 02Z ONLY TO INCREASE AGAIN AROUND 09Z WITH GUSTS TO
30KTS THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION MAY FALL AT BOTH
KGLD AND KMCK BETWEEN 09Z-12Z AS UPPER LOW ROTATES INTO OKLAHOMA
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. CIGS WILL LOWER INTO THE MVFR RANGE
AFTER 18Z AND POSSIBLY IFR RANGE AFTER 22Z.

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM....DR
AVIATION...007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

240 PM MDT MON MAR 19 2012

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 210 PM MDT MON MAR 19 2012

ADDING DIURNAL ISOLATED T AND -SHRA TO MY ERN ZONES BASED ON
LATEST VIS SAT IMAGERY CONFIRMING SPC RUC INSTABILITY TRENDS AND
ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE HRRR. THE ACTIVITY WILL MOVE TO THE NORTH
THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD DIMINISH BY EARLY EVENING.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1259 PM MDT MON MAR 19 2012

MAIN CHANGE OVER THE PREVIOUS FCST WAS TO ADD LOW CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE COLORADO AND NEBRASKA ZONES FOR LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THE REASONING IS BASED MUCH ON THE PROGGED
DEVELOPMENT OF MID-LVL FRONT-G COUPLED WITH THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY. SNDG PROFILES SUGGEST SHRA/FZRA
FOR THESE ZONES GIVEN THE LACK OF ICE BEING INTRODUCED IN THE
COLUMN. THE NARROW BAND OF PRECIP SHOULD END NORTH TO SOUTH BY
MID-MORNING TOMORROW. WIND-WISE THE CURRENT LIGHT AND VAR WINDS
WILL VEER TO NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT GUSTING 20 TO 25 KTS AND
ARE NOT EXPECT TO REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA. HIGH TEMPS TOMORROW
WILL BE COOLER THAN TODAY BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG WITH NORTH WINDS
AT 15 TO 25 MPH. NO PRECIP CHANCES WERE INTRODUCED AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT MON MAR 19 2012

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONCERN CONTINUES TO
FOCUS ON UPPER LOW AND HOW THE TRACK/TIMING WILL AFFECT TEMPS AND
PRECIP OVER OUR CWA. CLOSED LOW IS STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
TEXAS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING ON SOUTHERN FLANK OF LARGE SCALE TROUGH
CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. LATEST MODELS
HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON GENERAL TRACK OF UPPER LOW
ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE TOWARDS THE OK/KS BORDER BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THIS PUTS OUR CWA IN A FAVORABLE POSITION FOR PRECIP AS A
BAND OF PRECIP FORMS ON THE NW QUAD OF THE H5/H7 LOW AND PUSHES
NORTH TOWARDS NW KS. OVERALL TREND HAS BEEN TO SPEED UP THE ARRIVAL
OF PRECIP...SO I ADDED 20/30 POPS TUESDAY NIGHT AFTER 06Z. PRECIP
TYPE SHOULD REMAIN ALL RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT...THOUGH A RAIN/SNOW MIX
COULDNT BE RULED OUT BEFORE SUNRISE.

BETTER CHANCES OVERSPREAD THE CWA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
UPPER LOW SHIFT NORTH. I BUMPED POPS ACROSS SE PART OF THE CWA TO
LIKELY CATEGORY FOR THESE PERIODS WHERE THERE IS GOOD OVERLAP
BETWEEN MODEL QPF AND PROJECTED LIFT/MOISTURE. THERE IS LESS
CERTAINTY REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LOW AND POSITION OF
DRY SLOT BY THURSDAY. WITH THIS IN MIND...I ADJUSTED POPS THURSDAY
TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT PROJECTED DRY SLOT POSITION IN THE EAST BY
LIMITING POPS TO SLIGHT CATEGORY. I WAS NOT COMFORTABLE PULLING OR
RAISING POPS BEYOND THE 20/40 RANGE THURSDAY CONSIDERING THE POOR
PERFORMANCE OF GUIDANCE ON CLOSED SYSTEMS FOR OUR AREA.

I AM NOT CONFIDENT IN HIGH TEMPS WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY...WHICH
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON LOCATION OF CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP BOTH DAYS.
OVERALL I TRENDED TEMPS DOWN A LITTLE...BUT KEPT THE CWA GENERALLY
IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. IT SHOULD BE COOLER FOR LOCATIONS WITH
PRECIP/THICK CLOUD COVER.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...OMEGA BLOCK TYPE PATTERN ESTABLISHES
ITSELF BY THIS WEEKEND WITH H5 RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. GFS
AND GEFS ARE MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE RIDGE...WHICH IS
UNREALISTIC CONSIDERING THE WAY THESE PATTERN USUALLY EVOLVE OVER
THE CENTRAL US. GUIDANCE IN THE PAST TENDS TO BE TOO QUICK TO MOVE
UPSTREAM CLOSED LOWS EASTWARD...WHICH IS LIKELY THE CASE WITH THE
GFS. ECMWF HOLDS ONTO THE STRONG RIDGE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. THE RESULT OF A SLOWER SOLUTION WILL BE WARMER TEMPERATURES
AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THESE PERIODS. I TRENDED TEMPS UP
SAT/SUN/MON WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 70S...NEAR 80F ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS MAY STILL BE TOO COOL...WITH A STRETCH OF VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAD LATE LAST
WEEK AND THIS PAST WEEKEND CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1127 AM MDT MON MAR 19 2012

VFR CIGS AND VIS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AT BOTH MCK AND
GLD. CIGS SHOULD LOWER TONIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT BUT STILL REMAIN ABOVE 3000 FT. UNTIL THE FRONT ARRIVES
LATER TONIGHT THE SFC WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. AS THE
FRONT ARRIVES THE WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS AROUND
20-25 KTS. AS FOR PRECIP CHANCES...THERE IS A LOW CHANCE THERE MAY
BE SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW OR A MIX OF RAIN SNOW AT KGLD LATER
TONIGHT. AT THIS TIME I DID NOT INTRODUCE AND PRECIP GIVEN MY LOW
CONFIDENCE.

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...05
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....DR
AVIATION...05

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

215 PM MDT MON MAR 19 2012

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 210 PM MDT MON MAR 19 2012

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1259 PM MDT MON MAR 19 2012

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 103 AM MDT MON MAR 19 2012

UPPER LOW AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL BE MEANDERING AROUND
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. ALTHOUGH MODELS SHOW IT TAKING A BIT OF A
NORTHERN JOG ON THURSDAY THIS LOOKS VERY SUSPICIOUS...AND MODELS
HAVE BEEN TERRIBLE WITH UPPER LOWS RECENTLY. NONETHELESS...WILL
THROW IN SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE TIME BEING. AFTER THE LOW
GETS OUT OF HERE...UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD FROM THE WEST AND
DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1127 AM MDT MON MAR 19 2012

VFR CIGS AND VIS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AT BOTH MCK AND
GLD. CIGS SHOULD LOWER TONIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT BUT STILL REMAIN ABOVE 3000 FT. UNTIL THE FRONT ARRIVES
LATER TONIGHT THE SFC WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. AS THE
FRONT ARRIVES THE WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS AROUND
20-25 KTS. AS FOR PRECIP CHANCES...THERE IS A LOW CHANCE THERE MAY BE
SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW OR A MIX OF RAIN SNOW AT KGLD LATER TONIGHT.
AT THIS TIME I DID NOT INTRODUCE AND PRECIP GIVEN MY LOW CONFIDENCE.

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...05
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....024
AVIATION...05

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DODGE CITY KS

238 AM CDT MON MAR 19 2012

...UPDATED FOR EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1123 PM CDT SUN MAR 18 2012

HAVE UPDATED POPS AND WEATHER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR
EXPECTED PRECIPITATION TREND. THE HRRR HAS A DECENT TREND ON POPS
EVOLUTION. A NARROW LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE RAPIDLY DEVELOPING
ALONG THE COLD FRONT SPREADING ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
NORTHEASTWARD FROM AMARILLO. THE LINE SHOULD GROW UPSCALE INTO THE
NOW WEAKENING INSTABILITY FIELD OVER CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. THE ARW AND NMM NAM/WRF RUNS ARE SUPPORTIVE OF SUCH AN
EVOLUTION WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN PLACEMENT. THE NAM SURFACE WIND
FIELD INDICATES WINDS SHOULD VEER AND WEAKEN IN THE COMING HOURS
AS THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER EASTERN COLORADO MOVES EAST. AT THIS TIME
ONLY A COUPLE OF METAR OBSERVATIONS ARE CLOSE TO OR MEETING WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA. WE PLAN TO ALLOW THE CURRENT WIND ADVISORY TO
EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT SUN MAR 18 2012

WILL GO AHEAD AND LET THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR MORTON AND STANTON
COUNTY EXPIRE ON TIME AT 7 PM CDT. HUMIDITIES ARE RISING ABOVE
15 PERCENT. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WERE FORMING ALONG THE DRYLINE AND
MOVING NORTH NORTHEAST AT AROUND 45 MPH FROM GARDEN CITY TO SCOTT CITY.
SOME STORM SPLITTING WAS OCCURRING BUT UPDRAFTS SO FAR HAVE NOT
BEEN ABLE TO SUSTAIN THEMSELVES LONG ENOUGH FOR SEVERE THRESHOLDS. AS
THE SUN SETS THE PROBABILITY FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DECREASE. HOWEVER LATER TONIGHT AROUND OR AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE
UPPER TROUGH AND COLD POOL ALOFT MOVES INTO WESTERN KANSAS A
MARGINALLY SEVERE MCS MAY FORM WITH HAIL LESS THAN OR UP TO DIME
AND QUARTER SIZE. A LOW LEVEL JET OF 60 KTS WILL CONTINUE WITH STRONG
SURFACE WINDS THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF LULL
IN THE STRONG WINDS AROUND SUNSET THEN THEY SHOULD PICK BACK UP AGAIN.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TOMORROW)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SUN MAR 18 2012

A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WAS MOVING TROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
THIS AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE, STRONG LEE TROUGHING WAS
OCCURRING ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS. A SURFACE DRYLINE WAS LOCATED
ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS. TO THE EAST OF THE DRYLINE, LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WAS IN PLACE AND CAPPING WAS BEING ERODED THROUGH STRONG
DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER, A STRONG CAP WAS STILL IN PLACE WELL
AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE AT DODGE CITY PER MODEL SOUNDINGS.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE BY 5 PM
WITH INTENSE DAYTIME HEATING. GIVEN THE STRONG SHEAR AND CAPE
AROUND 2000 J/KG, LARGE HAIL WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST STORMS.
DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS THE LOWER LEVELS COOL, CLOUD HEIGHTS
WILL DECREASE AS THE STORMS MOVE EAST OF THE DRYLINE. THEREFORE, A
TORNADO OR TWO CAN`T BE RULED OUT DURING THE EVENING BEFORE THE
LOWER LEVELS STABILIZE TOO MUCH AND SURFACE BASED STORMS DIMINISH.

LATER TONIGHT, MID-LEVEL COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH, ALONG WITH A NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTED COLD
FRONT. SO ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT,
ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE
WILL RESIDE. THESE STORMS SHOULD NOT BE AS SEVERE SINCE THE LOWER TO
MID-LEVEL WINDS WILL BE UNIDIRECTIONAL BY THAT TIME, ALONG WITH
MUCH LOWER CAPE VALUES DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
NEVERTHELESS, MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IS POSSIBLE. WARM OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S CAN BE EXPECTED AROUND MEDICINE LODGE AND
PRATT WHERE 60F DEWPOINTS AND 15KT WINDS WILL BE LOCATED. COOLER
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S CAN BE EXPECTED IN FAR WESTERN KANSAS IN
THE DRIER AIR.

CLEARING CAN BE EXPECTED ON MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS
SOUTHWEST KANSAS IN THE MORNING. DESPITE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE,
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE ALL THAT COLD SINCE THIS IS NOT AN ARCTIC
AIRMASS AND SINCE SURFACE WINDS WILL HAVE A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT.
THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER ON THE
HIGHER TERRAIN, WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES IN CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE
DOWNSLOPE WARMING WILL BE GREATER.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 AM CDT MON MAR 19 2012

SHORT DISCUSSION TODAY DUE TO ACTIVE RADAR WATCH.

LOADED THE CREXTENDFCST_INIT TOOL, CHECKED FOR INTERSITE
COORDINATION COMPLIANCE AND RAN THE INTEGRITY TOOL. ALL GRIDS LOOK
FINE, REASONABLE AND IN LINE WITH OTHER OFFICES. THE UPPER LEVEL
CUT OFF LOW WILL TRACK INTO CENTRAL KANSAS WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. AS IT DOES, DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE TRANSPORTED INTO
WESTERN KANSAS ON THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE LOW.
THEREFORE, POPS HAVE INCREASED TO 40 PERCENT WEDNESDAY ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEAST, BUMP UP TO 60 LIKELY POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN OUR EAST
AND 40 TO 50 POPS IN OUR WEST, THEN DECREASE TO 40 POPS ON
THURSDAY. QPF FROM THE HPC GIVES OUR SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL ZONES
0.35-0.40 INCH THROUGH THE EVENT, AND OUR SOUTHWEST ZONES
0.30-0.35 INCH, THE NORTH WILL SEE LESS THAN THAN, PERHAPS 0.10 TO
0.15 INCH. NO POPS AFTER FRIDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND DRY THINGS OUT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE MODERATE TO SEASONAL TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY,
WITH HIGHS IN AROUND 60 DEGREES. FRIDAY WILL START A WARMING TREND
WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND WARMING AFFECT FROM THE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S FRIDAY, WARMING TO
THE MID TO UPPER 70S BY SUNDAY. MIN TEMPERATURES DID NOT CHANGE,
BEING THE COLDEST WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE UPPER 20S WEST RANGING TO
NEAR 41F DEGREES IN THE SOUTHEAST. THURSDAY, FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
WILL SEE LOWS IN THE UPPER 30SS WEST TO THE MID 40S EAST, THEN
SUNDAY SHOULD WARM MIN TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1248 AM CDT MON MAR 19 2012

88D COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY SHOWS A SHARP LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS MORNING. THE MODELS
DEVELOP THIS LINE UPSCALE INTO PARTS OF SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL KANSAS
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. THE SITE WITH THE GREATEST ODDS OF
RECEIVING SOME SMALL HAIL WOULD BE KDDC, BUT TEMPO TSRA CANNOT BE
RULED OUT AT EITHER GARDEN CITY OR HAYS THROUGH 12 TO 15 UTC.

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT SUN MAR 18 2012

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON
FROM GARDEN CITY AND LIBERAL WESTWARD. HOWEVER, SURFACE WINDS WILL
BE MARGINAL. NO WATCH OR WARNING WAS ISSUED AT THIS TIME.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 66 39 59 36 / 60 10 10 10
GCK 63 34 56 34 / 10 10 10 10
EHA 59 33 53 32 / 10 0 10 10
LBL 63 33 57 34 / 10 0 10 10
HYS 71 41 59 37 / 50 10 10 10
P28 69 46 61 41 / 60 10 20 20

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...RUSSELL
SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM....BURKE
AVIATION...RUSSELL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DODGE CITY KS

1250 AM CDT MON MAR 19 2012

...UPDATED FOR AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1123 PM CDT SUN MAR 18 2012

UPDATE ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT SUN MAR 18 2012

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TOMORROW)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SUN MAR 18 2012

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT SUN MAR 18 2012

THE LATEST MODEL RUNS OF THE ECMWF, GFS AND GEM ALL SHOW THE LARGE
SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL WYOMING SOUTH TO
NORTHERN ARIZONA BY 12Z MONDAY. STRONG UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL BE
FLOWING THROUGH CENTRAL KANSAS, AND A COLD FRONT WILL BE DIVIDING
OUR CWA FROM WEST TO EAST. MOISTURE WILL BE HIGH IN OUR EXTREME
EASTERN COUNTIES, AND THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A GOOD CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR EASTERN 2 TIER OF COUNTIES. THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOVE EAST OF OUR AREA BY 00Z TUESDAY, SO MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY WILL NOT HAVE POPS IN.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT, AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CUT
OFF AND BE CENTERED OVER NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THIS COULD BRING
SOME WRAP AROUND RAIN SHOWERS TO OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES BOTH TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE MOISTURE WILL GET DEEPER BY THURSDAY, SO
THE NEW CR_EXTD_INIT OR CONSALL MODELS SHOW THURSDAY WITH 20 PERCENT
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS, AS FAR WEST AS STANTON AND SCOTT COUNTIES.
WENT ON THE LOWER SIDE FOR QPF AMOUNTS THURSDAY, AS THE SHOWERS WILL
PROBABLY BE WIDELY SCATTERED AND HIGH BASED/ELEVATED.

THE LARGE CUT OFF UPPER LOW PRESSURE WILL ADVANCE EAST THURSDAY
NIGHT, BRINGING AN END TO THE PRECIP CHANCES. A RATHER LARGE SCALE
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN INTO THE WESTERN
PLAINS FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL MEAN A WARMING TREND
SETTING IN.

MONDAY HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S IN OUR SOUTHWEST TO THE
UPPER 60S IN OUR SOUTHEAST. TUESDAY MAY BE THE COLDEST DAY IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD, WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 50S IN OUR WEST AND
THE LOWER 60S ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. SO TECHNICALLY, THE
WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN WEDNESDAY WHEN MAX TEMPS RISE TO THE LOWER
60S. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM TO THE MID 60S BY THURSDAY,
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S BY FRIDAY, AND THEN WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IN FULL FORCE BY THE WEEKEND, HIGHS SATURDAY WILL
TOP OUT IN THE 70F TO 75F DEGREE RANGE.

MINIMUM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL GO THROUGH A
WIDE RANGE. TUESDAY MORNING WILL SEE THE INITIAL SURGE OF COLD AIR
SNEAK INTO OUR WESTERN 1/3RD OF THE CWA, WITH MINS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 30S. EASTERN COUNTIES TUESDAY WILL SEE ELEVATED MINS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 40S DUE TO THE MOIST SOIL CONDITIONS. WEDNESDAY
MORNING WILL LIKELY BE THE COLDEST MORNING AS COLDER AIR SEEPS
EASTWARD, WITH MIN TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S IN OUR FAR WEST AND
RANGING TO NEAR 40F DEGREES IN THE MEDICINE LODGE AREA. BY THURSDAY
MORNING, SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL BE FILTERING IN, AND LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM 37F DEGREES IN HAMILTON COUNTY TO 44F DEGREES IN
BARBER COUNTY. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL SEE MORNING LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 40S.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1248 AM CDT MON MAR 19 2012

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT SUN MAR 18 2012

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON
FROM GARDEN CITY AND LIBERAL WESTWARD. HOWEVER, SURFACE WINDS WILL
BE MARGINAL. NO WATCH OR WARNING WAS ISSUED AT THIS TIME.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 39 59 36 59 / 10 10 10 30
GCK 34 56 34 60 / 10 10 10 20
EHA 33 53 32 59 / 0 10 10 20
LBL 33 57 34 60 / 0 10 10 30
HYS 41 59 37 60 / 10 10 10 20
P28 46 61 41 60 / 10 20 20 40

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT /MIDNIGHT MDT/ EARLY THIS MORNING
FOR KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090.

UPDATE...RUSSELL
SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM....GERARD
AVIATION...RUSSELL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DODGE CITY KS

1130 PM CDT SUN MAR 18 2012

...UPDATE FOR THUNDERSTORM TRENDS AND WINDS...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1123 PM CDT SUN MAR 18 2012

UPDATE ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT SUN MAR 18 2012

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TOMORROW)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SUN MAR 18 2012

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT SUN MAR 18 2012

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 600 PM CDT SUN MAR 18 2012

STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS TO
35 KTS. VFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS, SOME
SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS A LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS TO 60 KTS BY
THROUGH 03Z. HOWEVER THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE COOLING WITH MORE
CLOUDS MOVING IN. AFTER MIDNIGHT LOOK FOR GENERAL MCS WITH
MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL POSSIBLE THROUGH ABOUT 12-15Z TONIGHT WITH
UPPER LEVEL COOLING AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO WESTERN KANSAS.

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT SUN MAR 18 2012

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON
FROM GARDEN CITY AND LIBERAL WESTWARD. HOWEVER, SURFACE WINDS WILL
BE MARGINAL. NO WATCH OR WARNING WAS ISSUED AT THIS TIME.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 53 66 39 59 / 80 20 10 10
GCK 46 63 34 56 / 30 10 10 10
EHA 44 59 33 53 / 40 0 0 10
LBL 47 63 33 57 / 70 0 0 10
HYS 57 71 41 59 / 70 40 10 10
P28 62 69 46 61 / 40 70 10 20

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT /MIDNIGHT MDT/ MONDAY FOR KSZ030-
031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090.

UPDATE...RUSSELL
SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM....GERARD
AVIATION...KRUSE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PITTSBURGH PA

600 PM EDT MON MAR 19 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
INCREASING HUMIDITY MAY GENERATE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING ACROSS EAST CENTRAL OHIO AND NEAR THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS. PATCHY FOG CAN DEVELOP TOWARD MORNING. STRENGTHENING
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE WARM TEMPERATURES AND GENERALLY DRY
CONDITIONS INTO FRIDAY.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RECENT RADAR DATA SHOWS ISOLATED SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
EAST CENTRAL OHIO, AND ANOTHER BATCH OVER THE NORTHERN
PENNSYLVANIA MOUNTAINS. PER RECENT RADAR MOVEMENT AND HRRR MODEL
OUTPUT, EXPECT THE OHIO STORMS TO SPREAD JUST EAST OF THE I-77
CORRIDOR BEFORE DISSIPATING AFTER DARK AS NOCTURNAL COOLING
BEGINS. LIKEWISE THE STORMS JUST NORTHEAST OF JEFFERSON COUNTY PA
SHOULD DISSIPATE THEN ALSO.

THE REST OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

HAVE INTRODUCED PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING AS SUGGESTED BY RECENT NAM MODEL PROFILES AND GFS
AND NAM MOS.

UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN DOMINATE TUESDAY
WITH VERY WARM TEMPERATURES. WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND SOME
INSTABILITY A STRAY AFTERNOON THUNDERSHOWER IS POSSIBLE BUT
OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY.

FORECASTED SPECIFIC TEMPERATURES USING BLEND OF NAM MOS, GFS MOS
AND LAMP.

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RECENT SREF MODEL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO SHOW UPPER RIDGE WILL
PROVIDE JUNE-LIKE TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS, WITH NO
MORE THAN AN ISOLATED LATE AFTERNOON THUNDERSHOWER POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
OCCLUDED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY TRACK EAST FROM THE MS
VALLEY ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THE WEEKEND. A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT PROGGED TO SAG SOUTHWARD AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM COULD BRING
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ON FRIDAY...BUT A GREATER COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH THE
EASTWARD MOVING LOW.

A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM SHOULD BRING DRY
CONDITIONS ON MONDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DOWN INTO THE MID 50S TO MID 60S BY
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BUT OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER EAST CENTRAL OHIO
INCLUDING KZZV THROUGH AROUND 23Z.

MVFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST OVER NORTHWEST PA INCLUDING
KDUJ AND KFKL INTO TONIGHT...WITH PREDOMINATELY VFR ELSEWHERE
THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION...WITH AREAS OF
MVFR CEILINGS AND FOG LIKELY REFORMING AFTER 06Z TONIGHT...AND IFR
RESTRICTIONS REDEVELOPING AT KDUJ AND KFKL. IMPROVEMENT TO
GENERALLY VFR IS FORECAST AFTER 15Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PROVIDE GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
FRIDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING EAST FROM THE MS VALLEY WILL
BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
RESTRICTIONS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WAKEFIELD VA

551 PM EDT MON MAR 19 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE COAST THROUGH LATE
THIS WEEK. A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL
FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
QUICK UPDATE TO GOING FORECAST TO REFLECT CURRENT ORIENTATION OF
POPS. NEW 18Z NAM AND LAST FEW RUNS OF HRRR HAVE DONE A GOOD JOB
WITH HANDLING WEAK SHORTWAVE TO OUR NORTH, NICELY DEPICTED ON
IR/WV SAT IMAGERY. DRIER AIR PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST HAS ALLOWED
FOR WANING INSTABILITY AND A REASONABLY STRONG CAPPED
ENVIRONMENT...WHICH SHORT RANGE MODELS ALLOW TO PRESIST THROUGH
THE EVENING. ACCORDINGLY...HAVE SHUNTED ISO TSRA WORDING OUT OF
THE PIEDMONT INTO EASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA...WITH ANY ACTIVITY
WANING QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET.

OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE CIRCULATION LOCATED ABOUT 100-150 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE VA/NC BORDER IS PROGGED TO MOVE UP THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL BRING CLOUDS OVER THE DELMARVA
OVERNIGHT AND SPREAD LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST BY TUESDAY
MORNING.

FOG WILL DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT ACROSS THE REGION BUT SHOULD NOT
FORM UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. VARIABLE VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE AREA...HOWEVER LOCALLY DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE IN
LOCATIONS THAT EXPERIENCE FULL CLEARING THIS EVENING AND IN RURAL
AREAS AS WELL.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FOG IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE AND BY MID
MORNING (9-10 AM) FOR AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE LOCALLY DENSE FOG.

YET ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL DROP DOWN FROM THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION TUESDAY AND PROVIDE ENOUGH ENERGY AND LIFT FOR SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT. AN AREA OF POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE INTO THE DELMARVA REGION FROM THE
NORTH BY MID MORNING AND INTERACT WITH THE OFFSHORE LOW. THIS
FEATURE WILL BECOME A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
FROM THE DELMARVA COAST...DOWN THROUGH THE NE NORTH CAROLINA COAST...
AND TILTING TOWARD INTERIOR VA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE EASTERN
PIEDMONT WILL BE CO-LOCATED WITH AN AREA OF CONVERGENCE ALSO IN
THE AFTERNOON...CONTINUING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THIS
REGION.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY BE SIMILAR TO MONDAY
NIGHT AS FOG RE-DEVELOPS LATE AND PERSISTS THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BRING LITTLE CHANGE TO THE CURRENT
WEATHER PATTERN WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFFSHORE AND
WEAK SHORTWAVES PROVIDING JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
H5 RIDGE WILL BE POSITIONED OVER THE SE U.S. THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY.
FOR THE MOST PART...THINK WX WILL BE DRY BUT MODELS DO HINT AT AN
ISOLATED AFTN SHWR/TSTORM FOR FRI SO WILL CARRY 20% POP. LOWS THURS
NIGHT IN THE 50S. HIGHS FRIDAY FROM THE MID/UPR 60S AT THE COAST TO
THE LOW 80S ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE UPR LOW OUT WEST SLOWLY PUSHING EASTWARD
THROUGH THE WEEK AND EVENTUALLY IMPACTING THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION
THIS COMING WEEKEND. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM SLOWLY
SPREADS EAST AND INTO THE FA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. STILL
SOME DIFFERENCES ON THE TRACK OF THE ACTUAL UPR LOW...SO FOR NOW
WILL CARRY CHC POPS FROM SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THE UPR LOW SHOULD
BEGIN TO PULL AWAY FROM OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT BUT AGAIN THERE ARE
TIMING DIFFERENCE IN THE MODELS WHICH COULD DELAY THE END TIME OF
PRECIP. FOR NOW...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHC POPS SUNDAY NIGHT AND IF
PREVIOUS RUNS CONTINUE TO SLOW THE UPR LOW DOWN THEN WILL ADJUST
POPS UP ACCORDINGLY. DRY WX SHOULD RETURN TO START NEXT WEEK. STILL
MILD SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S EXCEPT M-U60S COASTAL AREAS. A
LITTLE COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY/MONDAY WITH HIGHS AROUND
70 EXCEPT 60-65 COASTAL AREAS.

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING FOR ALL TAF SITES WITH LIGHT WINDS.

LATER TONIGHT...AM EXPECTING AREAS OF FOG AND/OR LOW CLOUDS TO
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE. WORST OF THE CONDITIONS SHOULD BE BETWEEN
08Z-13Z TUES. SIMILAR SETUP TUE AFTN THROUGH WED MORNING...WITH
VFR CONDS AFTER MORNING FOG/LOW CLOUDS BURN OFF...AND BETTER
CHANCE OF WIDELY SCATTERED MAINLY LATE AFTN AND EVENING TSTMS. A
BIT MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW WED NIGHT-FRI...SO DIURNAL PATTERN OF
MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG WILL TEND TO DIMINISH.

.MARINE...
OVERALL WILL BE A BENIGN PERIOD FOR THE WATERS THROUGH FRI...A
BROAD SFC HIGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OFF THE MID ATLC COAST...
KEEPING ANY SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WELL OFF TO OUR WEST.
FOR REST OF TODAY AND TUES THERE WILL BE A VERY WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT...AND ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD DOMINATE WITH WINDS GENLY FROM
THE NE IN THE AM HRS TURNING MORE E FOR THE AFTN/EVENING. FAIRLY
LIGHT WIND SPEEDS...AVERAGING OUT AT 5-10 KT...WITH A SLIGHT
INCREASE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTN AND EVENINGS. SEAS 2-3 FT AND
WAVES IN THE BAY 1-2 FT. SOME FOG WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE
MAINLY DURING THE AM HRS TUES AND WED. WINDS BECOME SW BY WED
AROUND 10KT...THEN SW THURS/FRI BETWEEN 10-15 KT.

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG/BMD
NEAR TERM...MAM/BMD
SHORT TERM...BMD
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...JDM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PITTSBURGH PA

158 AM EDT MON MAR 19 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS
AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT. SUNSHINE MAY HELP DEVELOP
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON, AS WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE THIS WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATED TO REMOVE THUNDER FOR ALL BUT THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES WHERE
THE RISK OF THUNDER REMAINS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE.
RAIN SHOWERS IN THE NORTH WILL SLOWLY END FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE
SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST OF THE DISTRICT TOWARD DAYBREAK. NOCTURNAL
COOLING OF A RAIN- MOISTENED SURFACE LAYER CAN RESULT IN PATCHY
FOG OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

CLOUDS WILL ERODE DURING MONDAY MORNING, TO PROVIDE SOME SUNSHINE
BY AFTERNOON. THIS MAY GIVE RISE TO ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR
ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.

TWEAKED TEMPERATURES USING RECENT HRRR AND GFS LAMP MODEL OUTPUT.
THESE SHOW LOWS TONIGHT SIMILAR TO SATURDAY NIGHT, AND HIGHS
MONDAY A TAD WARMER THAN SUNDAY.

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXPECT SHOWER CHANCES TO DECREASE MONDAY NIGHT WITH NOCTURNAL
COOLING OF THE SURFACE LAYER REDUCING INSTABILITY. WITH UPPER
LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH HAVING PAST EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY,
HAVE FORECASTED DRY CONDITIONS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

BOTH MAV/MET GUIDANCE HAVE TEMPERATURES REACHING VERY CLOSE TO 80
BY MIDWEEK AND WITH STRONG RIDGE STATIONED TO THE EAST AND
SOUTHERLY FLOW...FELT NO REASON TO STRAY FROM THESE NUMBERS.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
REGION WILL BE UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE INTO THURSDAY WITH MILD
TEMPERATURES. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT A
DIURNAL SHOWER IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY...BUT OVERALL A DRY FORECAST.
LARGE STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL GRADUALLY COME
EAST BY FRIDAY WITH SHOWERS INTO SATURDAY. MODELS HAVE TIMING
DIFFERENCES BY THE DAY 7 TIME PERIOD WITH A SHOT OF COLDER AIR
MOVING DOWN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS BEHIND THE SATURDAY SYSTEM.
USED HPC GUIDANCE FOR CONSISTENCY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE TERMINALS, BRINGING SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA THROUGH DAWN. AT THIS TIME,
HAVE LEFT OUT MENTION OF CB AND -TSRA AS STORMS ARE FORECAST TO MISS
KZZV/KHLG/KMGW. THUS, VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE
TERMINALS UNTIL THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. CLEARING BEHIND THE MID-
LEVEL WAVE MAY ALLOW FOR FOG TO DEVELOP NEAR DAWN. MVFR
VISIBILITIES WITH FOG ARE FORECAST AT KPIT/KAGC/KBVI/KHLG WITH IFR
POSSIBLE AT KZZV.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY WITH ISOLATED
CONVECTION POSSIBLE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW
AT THIS TIME TO MENTION THIS IN TAFS. WINDS THROUGHOUT THE
MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND 5KTS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL DOMINATE INTO THURSDAY WITH GENERAL VFR
CONDITIONS. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS WILL RETURN FRIDAY AS
A STORM SYSTEM MOVES EAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES.

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PITTSBURGH PA

1250 AM EDT MON MAR 19 2012

CLOUDS WILL ERODE DURING MONDAY MORNING, TO PROVIDE SOME SUNSHINE
BY AFTERNOON. THIS MAY GIVE RISE TO ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR
ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.

TWEAKED TEMPERATURES USING RECENT HRRR AND GFS LAMP MODEL OUTPUT.
THESE SHOW LOWS TONIGHT SIMILAR TO SATURDAY NIGHT, AND HIGHS
MONDAY A TAD WARMER THAN SUNDAY.

BOTH MAV/MET GUIDANCE HAVE TEMPERATURES REACHING VERY CLOSE TO 80
BY MIDWEEK AND WITH STRONG RIDGE STATIONED TO THE EAST AND
SOUTHERLY FLOW...FELT NO REASON TO STRAY FROM THESE NUMBERS.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
REGION WILL BE UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE INTO THURSDAY WITH MILD
TEMPERATURES. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT A
DIURNAL SHOWER IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY...BUT OVERALL A DRY FORECAST.
LARGE STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL GRADUALLY COME
EAST BY FRIDAY WITH SHOWERS INTO SATURDAY. MODELS HAVE TIMING
DIFFERENCES BY THE DAY 7 TIME PERIOD WITH A SHOT OF COLDER AIR
MOVING DOWN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS BEHIND THE SATURDAY SYSTEM.
USED HPC GUIDANCE FOR CONSISTENCY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE EASTWARD PASSAGE OF SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT, THAT CAN RESULT IN MAINLY MVFR
CONDITIONS. SUBSEQUENT NIGHTTIME COOLING OF A RAIN-MOISTENED
SURFACE LAYER MAY RESULT IN PATCHES OF IFR FOG THROUGH 14Z.

AFTER FOG DISSIPATES MONDAY MORNING, EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP DURING
THE AFTERNOON BUT HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE ANY TAF SITES WILL BE
AFFECTED.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE INTO THURSDAY WITH GENERAL VFR
CONDITIONS. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS WILL RETURN FRIDAY AS
A STORM SYSTEM MOVES EAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES.

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PITTSBURGH PA

1240 AM EDT MON MAR 19 2012

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATED TO REMOVE THUNDER FOR ALL BUT THE SOUTHERN MOST COUNTIES
WHERE THE RISK OF THUNDER REMAINS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON
LINE. RAIN SHOWERS IN THE NORTH WILL SLOWLY END FROM WEST TO EAST
AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST OF THE DISTRICT TOWARD DAYBREAK.
NOCTURNAL COOLING OF A RAIN- MOISTENED SURFACE LAYER CAN RESULT
IN PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

CLOUDS WILL ERODE DURING MONDAY MORNING, TO PROVIDE SOME SUNSHINE
BY AFTERNOON. THIS MAY GIVE RISE TO ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR
ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.

TWEAKED TEMPERATURES USING RECENT HRRR AND GFS LAMP MODEL OUTPUT.
THESE SHOW LOWS TONIGHT SIMILAR TO SATURDAY NIGHT, AND HIGHS
MONDAY A TAD WARMER THAN SUNDAY.

BOTH MAV/MET GUIDANCE HAVE TEMPERATURES REACHING VERY CLOSE TO 80
BY MIDWEEK AND WITH STRONG RIDGE STATIONED TO THE EAST AND
SOUTHERLY FLOW...FELT NO REASON TO STRAY FROM THESE NUMBERS.

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS MARQUETTE MI

657 PM EDT MON MAR 19 2012

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 438 PM EDT MON MAR 19 2012
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A VERY AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH
A DEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE ROCKIES
AND A RIDGE FROM THE GULF INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND NRN
ONTARIO RESULTING IN SSW FLOW FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS
VALLEY AND WRN GREAT LAKES. CAPPING EVIDENT ON MORNING SOUNDINGS AND
FCST SOUNDINGS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON HAS WEAKENED AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER SRN WI LIFTS TO THE NORTH. THE SHRTWV COMBINED WITH
MLCAPE VALUES INTO THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE SUPPORTED AN AREA OF
SHOWERS OVER SE WI AND MORE ISOLD SHRA/TSRA OVER NRN WI. ANOTHER
AREA OF SHRA/TSRA WAS LOCATED OVER NE IA INTO SE MN.
OTHERWISE...PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND AFTERNOON MIXING HAS AGAIN PUSHED
TEMPS AGAIN TO RECORD HIGHS INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S.

AS THE WI SHRTWV LIFTS TO THE NORTH EXPECT THE ISOLD CONVECTION OVER
NRN WI TO ALSO MOVE INTO SRN UPPER MI LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WITH COOLING LATER THIS EVENING...EXPECT THE PCPN TO
DIMINISH.

STRONGER SHORTWAVES LIFTING OUT OF THE NRN PLAINS INTO SASK AND
MANITOBA ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY FLATTEN THE RIDGE AND ALLOW THE
FRONT OVER THE ERN DAKOTAS TO SHIFT TO THE EAST. HOWEVER THE
STRONGER LARGE SCALE DYNAMICS WITH UPPER LEVEL DIV ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER JET MOVING INTO N ONTARIO WILL REMAIN WILL REMAIN
NORTHWEST OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH CONTINUED SSW MID LEVEL FLOW AND
THE VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE REGION...WEAK
SHORTWAVES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO TRIGGER SOME SCT/ISOLD SHRA/TSRA
INTO MAINLY THE WEST HALF OF UPPER MI. AS IS TYPICAL WITH WARM
SEASON CONVECTION...THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
TIMING/POSITION OF ANY SHRA/TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK
DISTURBANCES. SO...THE FCST CONTINUES TO CARRY CHANCE POPS LOWER END
CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD OVER THE WEST.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN RECORD TERRITORY FOR HIGH OVERNIGHT MINS AND
MAX READINGS TUESDAY WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND HIGHS REACHING THE MID
70S. WITH A FEW MORE CLOUDS OVER THE AREA...TEMPS MAY BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 438 PM EDT MON MAR 19 2012

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
OUR STAGNANT 500MB WEATHER PATTERN OF LATE...WITH THE HIGH AMPLITUDE
500MB RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION WILL BECOME
SUPPRESSED...BUT STILL OVERHEAD THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

TAKING A LOOK CLOSER TO THE SFC...THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT
STRETCHING FROM THE MAIN SFC LOWS ACROSS FAR NE MANITOBA AND IA WILL
SHIFT OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA BY 21-00Z WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...WHILE CONTINUING TO WEAKEN/WASH OUT TO OUR EAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR. THE ENTIRE SYSTEM LOOKS TO HAVE SLOWED DOWN A BIT MORE. IT
WILL HAVE ASSISTANCE FROM THE EXITING 300MB JET...BUT THIS WILL
MAINLY BE ACROSS W TO NORTH CENTRAL UPPER MI...AND LAKE SUPERIOR.
DID NOT GO WITH HIGH POPS YET...DUE TO THE LOW PROBABILITY AND
DIMINISHED AMOUNTS OF PRECIP EXPECTED. BEHIND THE FRONT...WHILE A
HUGE COOL DOWN IS NOT EXPECTED...850MB TEMPS WILL STILL FALL FROM
AROUND 11C TO NEAR 8C BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON ON LIGHT WINDS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
THE 500MB LOW...CURRENTLY ORGANIZING ACROSS THE 4-CORNERS REGION
TODAY WILL BE OVER N TX AT 00Z THURSDAY. EXPECT THIS CUT OFF LOW TO
EJECT NORTHWARD AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...PUSHING ACROSS E KS FRIDAY
MORNING...AND MO BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

JUST HOW MUCH OF AN INFLUENCE THIS TRACK HAS ON OUR WEATHER IS STILL
IN QUESTION...AS THE 500MB LOW SLIPS EASTWARD TO THE LOWER OH VALLEY
SATURDAY /AND SFC LOW MOVES AS FAR NORTH AS SCENTRAL WI AT 00Z
SATURDAY/...BEFORE FURTHER EXITING EASTWARD AND WEAKENING SUNDAY
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...WITH A REBOUNDING RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE
PLAINS AND UPPER GREAT LAKES. STILL HAVE A CHANCE OF RAIN FRIDAY
MORNING THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY...BUT WILL WAIT TO SEE ON MUCH
NEEDED AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE.

EVEN WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING BACK ACROSS THE CWA...NE WINDS WILL
PULL COOLER AIR DOWN FROM ONTARIO. THE 19/00Z RUN OF THE ECMWF EVEN
INDICATES 850MB TEMPS OVER THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW AROUND 0C AT 06Z
SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THE WARMER 19/06Z RUN OF THE GFS IS STILL AROUND
4C. EITHER WAY...LOOK FOR WAA ON WEAK S-SW WINDS AGAIN BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 656 PM EDT MON MAR 19 2012

CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD AT CMX AND IWD. S-SE
WINDS OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN TONIGHT MAY CAUSE VSBYS AT SAW TO DROP TO
MVFR OVERNIGHT AND PUSHED IT BACK TO LATE TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS
FAIRLY LOW THOUGH AS PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS HAVE SEEN NO FOG. USUALLY
WHEN THE WIND IS SOUTH AND THERE IS FOG IN LAKE MICHIGAN...CIGS AND
VIS COME DOWN AT SAW. AS DAYTIME HEATING SUBSIDES AND MIXING
DIMINISHES...EXPECT LLWS TO DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT AT ALL SITES. DID
PUT IN CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUE AFTERNOON OVER IWD AS FRONTAL BAND GETS
CLOSER TO THAT AREA. FURTHER EAST...CONFIDENCE IN SEEING SHOWERS IS
LOWER AND DID NOT INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 438 PM EDT MON MAR 19 2012
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF STRONG LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS. DUE TO THE SUMMER TYPE NATURE OF THE
SYSTEM...WINDS AS THE SURFACE OF THE LAKE REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK DUE TO
THE MARINE LAYER...ALTHOUGH WINDS ABOVE THE MARINE LAYER ARE MUCH
STRONGER. IN ADDITION...DESPITE THE SOUTHERLY SYNOPTIC FLOW...WINDS
ACROSS THE WEST EAST OR NORTHEASTERLY AS IS TYPICAL DURING THE
SPRING WITH LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST. EXPECT WINDS TO TURN WESTERLY
WED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...THEN ONCE AGAIN SOUTHERLY BY THE WEEKEND
AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS. OTHER THAN
TODAY...EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN BELOW 30 KT THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...07
MARINE...KF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

439 PM EDT MON MAR 19 2012

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 438 PM EDT MON MAR 19 2012

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 130 PM EDT MON MAR 19 2012

A WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THERE MAY BE A PASSING SHOWER
ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF UPPER MICHIGAN BUT WIDESPREAD PCPN IS NOT
EXPECTED AND CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD REMAIN VFR. S-SE WINDS OFF OF LAKE
MICHIGAN TONIGHT MAY CAUSE VSBYS AT SAW TO DROP TO MVFR OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE...ALL OTHER SITES WILL REMAIN VFR. GUSTY S-SE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE AGAIN TODAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT POSSIBLE. AS DAYTIME
HEATING SUBSIDES AND MIXING DIMINISHES...EXPECT LLWS TO DEVELOP
AGAIN TONIGHT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...KF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS GLASGOW MT

915 AM MDT MON MAR 19 2012

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
WINTER HAS DECIDED TO GO OUT LIKE A LION...AT LEAST OVER THE
WESTERN COUNTIES TODAY. THE MONTANA DOT ROAD REPORT HAS SEVERE
DRIVING CONDITIONS IN PETROLEUM COUNTY...WESTERN GARFIELD AND
SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS COUNTIES DUE TO ICE AND SNOW...WHICH STARTED
AROUND 4 AM THIS MORNING. JUST TO THE WEST OF THOSE COUNTIES
CONDITIONS INCLUDE HEAVY SNOW WITH VISIBILITIES LESS THAN A
QUARTER MILES WITH 30KT WINDS. BASED ON OBSERVATIONS...TWEAKED
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER IN SOME WESTERN AREAS. EASTERN AREAS
WILL CONTINUE WARMER THAN NORMAL. THE MAIN CHANGE WAS TO ADD AREAS
OF FOG OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...AGAIN BASED ON CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS. THIS MORNING THE SURFACE LOW CENTER COULD BE A
BULLS-EYE FOR THE CWA. THAT MEANS THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE IN THE
SOUTHWEST ZONES WHERE BLIZZARDS WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT. THE REST
OF THE HAZARDS APPEAR TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE SO NO PLANNED CHANGES
THERE. SCT

STRONG LATE WINTER STORM IS UNDERWAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
MONTANA. NATIONAL ATTENTION GIVEN BY SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION AND
SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES.

SHORT TERM MODEL QPF DEPICTIONS HAVE CONVERGED ON A VERY WET AND
HEAVY PRECIPITATION EVENT FOR TODAY. SIGNIFICANT GRADIENT OF MANY
WEATHER ELEMENTS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE CWA TODAY. NEAR NOTHING IN
OUR EASTERN ZONES...TO A FULL OUT BLIZZARD IN OUR WESTERN ZONES.
TIGHT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA WILL PUSH
NORTH AND EAST...ALLOWING STRONG WINDS TO WRAP AROUND THE WESTERN
SIDE OF THE LOW. WINDS HAVE ALREADY INCREASED EARLY THIS MORNING
MORE THAN ANTICIPATED. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR
WILL BE LIKELY TODAY. MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW ALONG WITH
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WILL EASILY RESULT IN BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS FOR SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS COUNTY AND PETROLEUM COUNTY.
FELT IT WAS BEST TO UPGRADE TO A BLIZZARD WARNING FOR THOSE ZONES
AND GIVE BUFFER ZONES OF WINTER STORM WARNING AND WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FURTHER EAST THROUGH OUR CENTRAL CWA. RECENT HRRR MODEL
RUNS HAVE BEEN SLIDING THE PRECIPITATION PROGRESSIVELY FURTHER
EAST THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. GREATEST PRECIPITATION IMPACT WILL
BE WITH HEAVY SNOW BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z. GREATEST WIND IMPACT WILL
BE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE 30G40KT RANGE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

STORM WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY TONIGHT AND DISAPPEAR ENTIRELY AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXITS NORTHEASTWARD INTO
CANADA...TAKING THE MAIN FORCING AND MOISTURE WITH IT.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL
WITH A SLIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT TO IT. ENOUGH OF A HIGH
PRESSURE INFLUENCE FROM THE SOUTH WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION AWAY AS
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO SLOWLY REBOUND TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS AGAIN
INTO MID WEEK. BMICKELSON

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH AN
UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST AND RIDGE TO THE EAST. NORTHEAST MONTANA
WILL BE WARM AND DRY BEING CLOSER TO THE RIDGE THAN THE TROUGH.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MODELS BEGIN TO DIFFER IN THEIR SOLUTIONS AT
THIS POINT BUT THEY POINT TOWARDS SOME MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONT
AND POSSIBLY A SHORTWAVE OR TWO IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WILL
MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

GFS IS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF WITH BRINGING THE UPPER TROUGH INLAND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. WILL MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS ON MONDAY DEPENDING ON TEMPERATURES. FORRESTER

.AVIATION...
KGGW BEING IN OR NEAR THE MAIN BAND OF RAIN/SNOW THIS MORNING WILL
SEE A MIX OF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WITH STRONG NORTH
WINDS. KOLF WILL SEE A VARIATION OF IFR/MVFR AND VFR CONDITIONS
THIS MORNING WITH THE DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECT TO PASS
NEAR KGGW AND KOLF THIS MORNING...A LULL IN THE WINDS IS EXPECTED
IN THE LATE MORNING BEFORE STRONG WEST WINDS 20-30 KNOTS DEVELOP
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW THIS AFTERNOON. KGGW AND KOLF WILL SEE
A MIX OF IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH RAIN CHANGING
TO SNOW BEFORE THE PRECIP ENDS AROUND 00Z AND CONDITIONS IMPROVE
TO VFR BY 02Z.

KSDY AND KGDV WILL BY ON THE DRY EAST SIDE OF THE LOW THIS MORNING
WITH VFR CONDITIONS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EARLY WILL BECOME
SOUTH 15 TO 20 KNOTS THIS MORNING AND GRADUALLY TURN SOUTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON AND WEST 20-30 KNOTS BY EVENING AS THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS
NORTH. KSDY AND KGDV WILL REMAIN VFR FOR THE MOST PART THIS
AFTERNOON BUT SOME LOW CLOUDS IN THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE MAY GIVE
THEM BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS. FORRESTER

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...NORTHERN VALLEY.

BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR PETROLEUM...
SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...GARFIELD...NORTHERN PHILLIPS.

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GLASGOW MT

359 AM MDT MON MAR 19 2012

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

STRONG LATE WINTER STORM IS UNDERWAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
MONTANA. NATIONAL ATTENTION GIVEN BY SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION AND
SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES.

STORM WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY TONIGHT AND DISAPPEAR ENTIRELY AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXITS NORTHEASTWARD INTO
CANADA...TAKING THE MAIN FORCING AND MOISTURE WITH IT.

GFS IS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF WITH BRINGING THE UPPER TROUGH INLAND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. WILL MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS ON MONDAY DEPENDING ON TEMPERATURES. FORRESTER

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...NORTHERN VALLEY.

BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR PETROLEUM...
SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...GARFIELD...NORTHERN PHILLIPS.

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE

1239 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KLNK AND KOFK.

SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE TAF SITES FOR THE
AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH ISOLATED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE...DID NOT MENTION
THIS IN THE TAF BUT RATHER INCLUDED A CB MENTION WITH THE CLOUDS
AS COVERAGE LOOKS QUITE ISOLATED. VFR CIGS EXPECTED BUT MAY DROP
TO MVFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. RAIN SHOULD COME TO AN END
AFTER 00Z. HAVE NOT FOLLOWED THE LIFR CONDITIONS THE NAM GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS FOR OVERNIGHT. THIS SEEMS TO BE THE ODD MODEL OUT BOTH
AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT WHICH WILL COME THROUGH OVERNIGHT
GIVING US A WINDSHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 AM CDT MON MAR 19 2012/

DISCUSSION...

TIMING OF PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE MAIN
FORECAST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM AS UPPER WAVE CUTS OFF OVER
SOUTHERN TEXAS AND LINGERS THERE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

A SURFACE TROUGH WAS LOCATED ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA AT 07Z
SEPARATING DRY AIR TO THE WEST FROM MOIST AIR TO THE EAST.
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS HAD DEVELOPED JUST EAST OF THE TROUGH
EARLIER IN THE EVENING. MAIN AREA OF CONVECTION EARLY THIS
MORNING WAS OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
SHORT RANGE HRRR GRADUALLY LIFTS THE STORMS NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE MORNING WITH CURRENT TIMING BRINGING INITIAL ROUND
OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA
AROUND 15Z. WEAK MID LEVEL INSTABILITY INDICATED BY FORECAST
SOUNDINGS THROUGH THE MORNING WITH BETTER FORCING AND DEEPER
MOISTURE IN THE AFTERNOON FROM SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHWEST
IOWA. EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA IS INCLUDED IN SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE TODAY WITH STRONG SHEAR BUT LIMITED CAPE INDICATED BY
CURRENT FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THIS INITIAL WAVE THEN SHIFTS EAST
INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT WITH POPS DECREASING ACROSS
THE AREA.

A SECONDARY SURFACE WAVE LIFTS NORTH FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON
TUESDAY BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA...
ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY EVENING. SURFACE FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY OVER WESTERN
IOWA DURING THIS TIME WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
FROM EXTREME SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHWEST IOWA...ALTHOUGH
CURRENT FORECAST TRENDS PLACE AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN JUST EAST OF THE
AREA. POPS AGAIN DECREASE TUESDAY NIGHT OVER THE AREA AS SURFACE
WAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST AND WEAKENS.

CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER TEXAS BEGINS TO IMPACT THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTH BRINGING ANOTHER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO STAY ON THE MILD SIDE ALTHOUGH THE CLOUD
COVER AND PRECIP WILL KEEP READINGS COOLER THAN SEEN THE PAST FEW
DAYS.

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE

616 AM CDT MON MAR 19 2012

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KLNK AND KOFK. SHOWERS WILL MOVE
INTO THE TAF SIGHTS THIS MORNING...BY ABOUT 14Z AND KLNK/KOFK AND
15-17Z AT KOMA. MVFR CEILINGS WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE RAIN...ALONG
WITH GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 15 TO 25 KTS. CONFIDENT THAT THUNDER
SHOULD OCCUR AT KLNK THIS MORNING BASED ON RADAR TRENDS FOR A
COUPLE HOUR PERIOD. BEYOND THEN...BEST THUNDER POTENTIAL SEEMS TO
BE THIS AFTERNOON AT KOMA. RAIN SHOULD END AT KOFK/KLNK BY 00Z AND
KOMA BY 02Z. THERE WILL ALSO BE A WIND SHIFT VERY LATE IN THE
PERIOD...PERHAPS BY 20/09Z AT KOFK AS A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE
INTO THE REGION.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 AM CDT MON MAR 19 2012/

DISCUSSION...

TIMING OF PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE MAIN
FORECAST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM AS UPPER WAVE CUTS OFF OVER
SOUTHERN TEXAS AND LINGERS THERE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER TEXAS BEGINS TO IMPACT THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTH BRINGING ANOTHER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO STAY ON THE MILD SIDE ALTHOUGH THE CLOUD
COVER AND PRECIP WILL KEEP READINGS COOLER THAN SEEN THE PAST FEW
DAYS.

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE

323 AM CDT MON MAR 19 2012

.DISCUSSION...

TIMING OF PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE MAIN
FORECAST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM AS UPPER WAVE CUTS OFF OVER
SOUTHERN TEXAS AND LINGERS THERE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER TEXAS BEGINS TO IMPACT THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTH BRINGING ANOTHER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO STAY ON THE MILD SIDE ALTHOUGH THE CLOUD
COVER AND PRECIP WILL KEEP READINGS COOLER THAN SEEN THE PAST FEW
DAYS.

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.

DEVELOPING MVFR CIGS NEAR FL025 WILL SPREAD ACROSS ALL EASTERN
NEBRASKA TAF SITES SHORTLY AFTER 06Z. STRONG SOUTH WINDS GUSTING
NEAR 30KTS WILL ALSO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND MUCH OF MONDAY. RAIN
AND CIGS NEAR FL015 ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AROUND 12Z AND PERSIST
MUCH OF THE MORNING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR KLNK
AND KOMA...MAINLY DURING THE 16Z TO 22Z TIME FRAME MONDAY...WITH
THESE STORMS SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA BY 00Z.

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

FOBERT/DERGAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS NORTH PLATTE NE

112 AM CDT MON MAR 19 2012

.AVIATION...
CLEARING SKIES OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
THEN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS BUILD BACK IN BY SUNRISE. SOME LOWER
STRATUS AT BKN025 TO THE EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
MORNING. STRONG SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 742 PM CDT SUN MAR 18 2012/

UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE NEARLY UNABATED THIS
EVENING AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES...A PACIFIC COLD FRONT
PUSHES INTO THE PANHANDLE AND 985 MB LOW PRESSURE ACROSS WY
LIFTS NORTH INTO WRN SD/ERN MT AND DEEPENS TO NEAR 980 MB TONIGHT.
A HIGH WIND WARNING CONTINUES ACROSS WRN NEB AS THIS AREA IS MOST
PRONE TO HIGH WIND GUSTS AND THE RUC SUGGESTED A 65KT 850 MB JET.

THE RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 06Z AS EARLIER SOLNS
OF THE RUC INDICATED VERY LOW RH...LESS THAN 25 PERCENT UNTIL 06Z
BUT THE MODEL HAS SINCE BACKED OFF AS THE DRYLINE CONTINUES TO
RETREAT WEST THROUGH KOGA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 621 PM CDT SUN MAR 18 2012/

UPDATE...

AVIATION...
VFR IS EXPECTED WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

A POWERFUL PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE FCST
OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED STRONG OR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. MVFR CIGS MAY
DEVELOP ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 TONIGHT THROUGH 15Z AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT. VFR IS EXPECTED AFTER 15Z ALL AREAS.

WINDS AT 18030G45KT WILL SUBSIDE TO BY ROUGHLY 06Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT SUN MAR 18 2012/

SYNOPSIS...
H5 HAND ANALYSIS THIS MORNING INDICATING A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
EXTENDING ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST FROM WASHINGTON TO SRN CALIFORNIA.
HT FALLS WERE GREATEST OVER FAR SRN CA AND ARIZONA WITH 120 METER
FALLS AT FLAGSTAFF AND 110 METER FALLS AT TUSCON. WINDS HAVE FINALLY
BEGUN TO PICK UP ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH OGALLALA GUSTING TO 45 MPH LAST HOUR AND IMPERIAL 43
MPH. RECORD HIGHS HAVE ALREADY BEEN SET AT IMPERIAL AND VALENTINE THIS
AFTERNOON. AS OF 3 PM CDT...NORTH PLATTE TIED ITS RECORD OF 84
DEGREES. RED FLAG CONDS WERE BEING MET ACROSS ALL FIRE WEATHER
FORECAST ZONES BUT 209 THIS AFTERNOON...AND WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE
WINDS...GLAD WE HAVE A RED FLAG WARNING IN PLACE EVERYWHERE.

DISCUSSION...

NEAR TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CHALLENGES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...DEAL WITH WIND AND CONVECTION TONIGHT...FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS TOMORROW...A COLD FROPA TOMORROW NIGHT...THEN THE THREAT
FOR PRECIPITATION INTO WEDS AS A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW MEANDERS
ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS.

FOR TONIGHT...WINDS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE THE MAIN
FORECASTING CONCERNS. WITH RESPECT TO WINDS...SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN ACROSS NERN WYOMING LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING...THEN LIFT NORTH INTO SERN MT AND WRN ND OVERNIGHT.
THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL STEEPEN EAST OF THE PANHANDLE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...BEFORE RELAXING TOWARD
MORNING...AS A SURFACE TROUGH TRANSITIONS EAST. H85 WINDS INCREASE
TO 40 TO 60 KTS EAST OF THE PANHANDLE LATER THIS EVENING...PEAKING
AROUND 06Z. IF WE COULD MIX THE BULK OF THIS OUT...THE HIGH WIND
WARNING UNTIL 01Z MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED THIS EVENING. H925 AND H85 WINDS
ARE UNIDIRECTIONAL THROUGH ABOUT 03Z...THEN DIVERGE TOWARD LATE
EVENING. THIS WOULD LESSEN MIXING AND LEAD TO SLIGHTLY LOWER
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS. FOR NOW...WILL LET THE HIGH WIND WARNING RIDE
TILL 8 PM CDT AND LET THE EVENING CREW DECIDE ON WEATHER OR NOT TO
EXTEND THE WARNING OR ISSUE A WIND ADVZY.

POPS THIS EVENING WERE TRIMMED OUT OF THE WESTERN ZONES AND WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE CENTRAL AND SERN ZONES THIS EVENING. THE CHANGE WAS
MADE TO ACCOMMODATE THE DRY LINE POSITION WHICH IS ALREADY EAST OF
HIGHWAY 83 AS OF 2 PM CDT. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE RETAINED IN THESE
AREAS IF CONVECTION DECIDES TO FIRE ALONG THE DRYLINE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IN EASTERN AREAS WILL
ARRIVE OVERNIGHT AS TSRAS FROM WRN KS LIFT NEWD INTO THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN ZONES. INITIATION FORCING IS MUCH MORE FAVORABLE IN WRN
KS AND THE TX AND OK PANHANDLES THIS EVENING AND ANY STORMS IN THE
ERN ZONES WILL HAVE TO ORIGINATE IN THESE AREAS. WITH TIMING BEING IN THE
OVERNIGHT...SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL...THOUGH GUSTY
WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE INVOF OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS...THANKS TO DECENT
H85 WINDS.

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE EAST
HIGHLIGHT THE MONDAY FORECAST. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...THE DRYLINE
WILL PUSH EAST OF HIGHWAY 83...WITH VERY LOW DEW POINTS NOTED WEST
OF THIS FEATURE IN THE WRN SANDHILLS AND ERN PANHANDLE. EVEN WITH
COOLER HIGHS IE. 60S...FCST DEW POINTS IN THE HIGH SINGLE DIGITS AND
LOWER TEENS WILL LEAD TO MIN RH`S AROUND 15 PERCENT MONDAY AFTERNOON
WHICH IS NEAR CRITICAL CRITERIA. WINDS WILL BE THE WILD CARD IN ALL
OF THIS AS LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED WEST OF THE DRYLINE TOMORROW.
GUIDANCE FOR OGA HAS AFTERNOON WINDS RANGING FROM 10 TO 20 KTS WHICH
WOULD BE BLO RED FLAG CRITERIA. WINDS ARE A TAD HIGHER IN THE
PANHANDLE AND ACTUALLY APPROACH 25 MPH BRIEFLY BY MID AFTERNOON.
ATTM THE GREATEST THREAT FOR RFW CONDS IS IN THE EASTERN
PANHANDLE...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE YET TO PUSH OUT A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH.

BY MONDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...JOINING THE DRYLINE ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA.
DECIDED TO HOLD ONTO SOME POPS IN EASTERN AREAS MONDAY EVENING EAST
OF THE APPG FRONT AND INVOF OF THE DRY LINE...WITH DRY CONDS
EXPECTED FURTHER WEST. H85 TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE
SINGLE DIGITS TUESDAY...WHICH WILL LEAD TO HIGHS IN THE 50S...AND
WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE PERIOD. IRONICALLY...TUESDAY...WILL
HAVE HIGH TEMPS AROUND OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. DRY CONDS WILL
CARRY OVER INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ARE CAUGHT BETWEEN
EXITING LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND A DEVELOPING CLOSED LOW OFF TO
THE SOUTH. THE SECOND FEATURE WILL MEANDER...THEN DRIFT NORTH
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...POSING A PLETHORA OF FORECASTING
ISSUES TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS THIS SYSTEM
DRIFTS NORTH INTO KANSAS AND SRN NEBRASKA. CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK
AND TIMING OF THIS FEATURE STILL IN DOUBT AS THE FORECAST MODELS
HAVE ONLY RECENTLY HINTED AT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A DOWN STREAM
BLOCKING RIDGE AND A NWD MOVING CLOSED LOW.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AS MENTIONED EARLIER...THE
MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARD A CUTOFF LOW CREEPING NORTH INTO
KANSAS...THEN EAST INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY LATE IN THE WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND. ON THIS TRACK...POPS WILL NEED TO BE INCREASED
IN SOME CENTRAL...SRN AND EASTERN AREAS TO ACCOMMODATE PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPMENT ON THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW. WENT AHEAD AND
INTRODUCED POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST AND EASTERN ZONES FOR WEDS NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. BEYOND FRIDAY...DRY CONDS ARE EXPECTED AS RIDGING
ALOFT BUILDS BACK INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
BACK IN THE 70S BY THE WEEKEND.

FIRE WEATHER...

FIRE CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. WINDS ALOFT WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. AND WITH
DEEP MIXING CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY EVENING...WILL CONTINUE TO GET
THE STRONG WINDS BLOWING ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. WILL NOT BEGIN TO SEE RELATIVE HUMIDITY BEGIN TO RECOVER
ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS UNTIL AFTER SUNDOWN...SO RED FLAG WARNING WILL
CONTINUE UNTIL THIS EVENING AS CONDITIONS REMAIN CRITICAL TO EXTREME
FOR DANGEROUS FIRE BEHAVIOR.

THE DRY AIR WILL STAY IN PLACE FOR MONDAY...ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABOUT 15 TO 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY
WILL FALL TO AROUND 15 PERCENT IN LOCATIONS WEST OF HIGHWAY
83...HOWEVER WINDS IN THESE AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN 20KTS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. IN LOCATIONS TO THE EAST INTO CENTRAL
NEBRASKA...WINDS WILL BE A BIT STRONGER /STILL 25KTS OR LOWER/ IN
THE AFTERNOON...HOWEVER RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE HIGHER AS
WELL...25 TO 30 PERCENT. THEREFORE FIRE DANGER ON MONDAY IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE CRITICAL.

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT /3 AM MDT/ EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094.

SHORT TERM/EXTENDED...TAYLOR
AVIATION...POWER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BINGHAMTON NY

254 AM EDT MON MAR 19 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...THOUGH...RAIN FREE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
MIDWEEK.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
1230 AM UPDATE...LOCAL RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS
REDEVELOPING FROM THE CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER ACROSS THE FINGER
LAKES TO THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY. HRRR AND LOCAL WRF INDICATE
THIS ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD, ALTHOUGH
ISOLATED, IN AN AREA OF HIGHER SFC DEW POINTS LOW/MID 50S. ADJUSTED
POPS TO REFLECT ISOLATED ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT FROM ABOVE MENTIONED
AREA WITH SLIGHT PROGRESSION EAST. NO OTHER CHANGES.

10 PM UPDATE...AN AREA OF BROKEN TO ISOLATED SHOWERS ON A LINE
FROM SOUTHERN STEUBEN COUNTY NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FINGER LAKES
CONTINUES TO FALL APART. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. ASIDE FROM THIS PRECIPITATION...A QUICK LOOK AT THE
REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS THAT WE SHOULD BE IN FOR A MAINLY DRY NIGHT
ONCE WE GET RID OF THE SHOWERS CURRENTLY IN PLACE. THE NEXT AREA
OF SHOWERS ACROSS OHIO IS IN DIRECT ASSOCIATION WITH A H5 SHORT
WAVE ACROSS EASTERN OH. THIS SHORT WAVE IS ESSENTIALLY IN THE
MIDDLE OF TWO H5 RIDGES (ONE TO OUR EAST OVER NEW ENGLAND AND
ANOTHER ACROSS THE WESTERN OHIO VALLEY). DUE TO THIS...THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW IS VERY WEAK AND WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY LIFTING MECHANISM TO
MOVE OUR WAY FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT. ON MONDAY AS THIS
SHORT WAVE MOVES A BIT CLOSER AND WE GET SOME DAYTIME
HEATING...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BODILY INCREASE
FROM MID-MORNING ON.

7 PM UPDATE...INCREASED CHANCE POPS TO LIKELY FROM THE
FINGER LAKES INTO THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. AFTER WE LOSE OUR DAYTIME HEATING THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH AND WHILE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE
STILL POSSIBLE...THIS THREAT SHOULD ALSO GO DOWN. EXPECT THAT THE
AREA OF PRECIP NOW WILL NOT SHIFT TOO MUCH FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST
SO THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT THE AREAS SEEING RAIN NOW WILL REMAIN THE
MOST AT RISK.

3 PM UPDATE... SCTD SHRA/TSRA ARE POPPING UP LATE THIS AFTN ACRS
WRN PA/NY...AS AN UPR-LVL WAVE APPROACHES...AND ACTS ON EXISTING
INSTAB (ML CAPES IN THE 500-750 RANGE). WE EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO
DRIFT VERY SLOWLY EWD...AND INTO OUR WRN/NRN ZNS IN THE 21-00Z
TIME FRAME. ALTHOUGH THE AMS WILL CERTAINLY STABILIZE DIURNALLY
AFTER SUNSET...THE HISTORY OF THIS SHRT WV HAS FEATURED EMBEDDED
TSRA...EVEN IN THE OVERNIGHT PDS. THUS...WE`LL CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE SCTD SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA...MAINLY FROM THE FINGER
LKS/CNTRL SRN TIER AREAS...UP ACROSS KSYR METRO...AND INTO THE
MOHAWK VLY/SRN TUG HILL RGNS. AREAS TO THE S AND E OF KBGM SHOULD
STAY MOSTLY RAIN-FREE OVERNIGHT.

GIVEN AN INCREASE IN CLDS FROM THE W TNT (LESS RADIATIONAL
COOLING)...AND A LOW-LVL TRAJECTORY MORE FROM THE S AND SW...AS
OPPOSED TO THE SE...WE FEEL THE EXTENT OF MARINE LYR ST/FOG WILL
BE MUCH LESS...AS COMPARED TO RECENT NGTS.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
310 PM UPDATE... MODEL AGREEMENT REMAINS GOOD...ON THE SYNOPTIC
SCALE...THAT THE ABV MENTIONED UPR-LVL WAVE WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT
ACRS NY/PA MON INTO MON NGT...WHILE WEAKENING. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD
THEN MINOR OUT AND DRIFT TO OUR S ON TUE. SINCE...THUS FAR...MOST OF
THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS OCCURRED ON THE ERN/SERN SIDES OF THIS SHRT
WV...WE FEEL GOOD ABT OUR FCST OF SCTD SHRA/ISOLD TSRA MON AND MON
NGT...WITH A DECREASE IN COVERAGE TUE. INSTAB MAY BE SOMEWHAT LESS
ON MON...AS OPPOSED TO THIS AFTN...WITH MORE CLDS/SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPS...BUT A FEW TSTMS STILL SEEM PLAUSIBLE...AND THUS WE LEFT
THIS MENTION IN THE FCST.

CLDS SHOULD BREAK TO ALLOW INCREASING SUNSHINE TUE...AS SOME DVM
DEVELOPS TO THE REAR OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHRT WV. GIVEN A VERY
WARM AMS STILL IN PLACE...TEMPS SHOULD AGAIN CLIMB WELL INTO THE 70S.

WED COULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK...WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS
AT ALL LVLS...AND A FAIR AMT OF SUN. TEMPS IN THE 75-80
RANGE SEEM LIKELY...MAYBE EVEN INTO THE LWR 80S IN NORMALLY WARMER LAKE
PLAIN AREAS.

THE MODELS IN GENERAL...HAVE NOT BEEN ABLE TO KEEP UP WITH THE
UNSEASONABLE WARMTH...AND WE`VE GONE ABV ANY AVAILABLE MACHINE
TEMPS...BY SEVERAL DEGS AT LEAST.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
4 AM UPDATE...
NOT MUCH CHANGE. THURSDAY ONE MORE DAY IN THE 70S. STILL
QUESTIONS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ON HOW MUCH COLD AIR COMES IN
WITH THE BACK DOOR FRONT. BLENDED THE COLDER GMOS WITH THE HPC
GUIDANCE.

4 PM UPDATE...THE OVERALL THEME OF A WARM START TO THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...FOLLOWED BY GRADUALLY "COOLER" TEMPS...BUT STILL
REMAINING ABOVE AVERAGE CONTINUES. THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCE OVER THE
LAST 24 HOURS HAS BEEN THE LONG RANGE MODELS NAMELY THE
EURO/GFS/CANADIAN...ALL NOW SHOW A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVING INTO
THE AREA LATE THURSDAY. ASIDE FROM AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND MAYBE
A LATE DAY SHOWER THURSDAY...HIGHS STILL LOOK TO BE VERY WARM
AHEAD OF THE FRONT OR WELL INTO THE 70S ONCE AGAIN.

THE DIFFERENCE WITH THE FRONT WILL BE COOLER TEMPS
FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FAR NORTH...WITH MUCH LESS OF AN
IMPACT FARTHER SOUTH INTO NEPA. WE MAY SEE A DECENT NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST TEMPERATURE GRADIENT THIS DAY DUE TO THE COOLER AIR
MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST. IN ADDITION TO BEING SLIGHTLY
COOLER...BEHIND THE FRONT DRIER WEATHER WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY INTO
EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE WE MAY SEE THE INFLUENCES OF A CUT OFF LOW
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES AT THIS POINT IN THE
FORECAST ARE VERY UNCERTAIN...BUT BASED ON THE LAST FEW MODEL RUNS
IT APPEARS THAT WHILE IT WILL BE COOLER OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
THAN OUR RECENT STRETCH...WE WILL REMAIN QUITE MILD FOR THIS TIME
OF THE YEAR.

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
2 AM UPDATE...
OVERALL VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN THE ATMOSPHERE IS BRINGING ISOLATED
LIGHT SHOWERS INTO THE SYR AND RME VICINITY BUT NOT ENOUGH THERE
TO PUT IN THE TAFS. REST OF SITES COULD HAVE SOME MVFR VSBYS
AROUND SUNRISE...11Z THIS MORNING. MID CLOUDS FOR THE ENTIRE
PERIOD. SOME MORE SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON BUT MOST LIKELY
WILL NOT CAUSE ENOUGH MVFR TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME. SHOWERS WILL
BE ORIENTED NORTH TO SOUTH AND WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST TODAY INTO
THE EVENING.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING. SOUTH WINDS 3 TO 6
KTS DURING THE DAY TODAY. BACK TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...

LATE TONIGHT...MVFR VSBY FOG AGAIN POSSIBLE.

TUE TO WED NGT...GNRL VFR DURING THE DAY AND MVFR FOG LATE AT
NIGHT.

THU...VFR. POSSIBLE MVFR IN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT.

THU NGT TO FRI...VFR. MVFR FOG POSSIBLE LATE THU NGT TO FRI
MORNING.

.FIRE WEATHER...
230 AM MON UPDATE...
LOW FIRE THREAT WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TOO HIGH AND TOO LITTLE
WIND MOST OF THE WEEK. IN ADDITION SHOWERS TODAY... TONIGHT...AND
POSSIBLY THURSDAY TO WET THE FUELS.

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...HEDEN/MLJ/RRM
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...HEDEN/TAC
AVIATION...TAC
FIRE WEATHER...TAC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BINGHAMTON NY

1236 AM EDT MON MAR 19 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM TONIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
OTHERWISE...THOUGH...RAIN FREE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
MIDWEEK.

CLDS SHOULD BREAK TO ALLOW INCREASING SUNSHINE TUE...AS SOME DVM
DEVELOPS TO THE REAR OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHRT WV. GIVEN A VERY
WARM AMS STILL IN PLACE...TEMPS SHOULD AGAIN CLIMB WELL INTO THE 70S.

THE MODELS IN GENERAL...HAVE NOT BEEN ABLE TO KEEP UP WITH THE
UNSEASONABLE WARMTH...AND WE`VE GONE ABV ANY AVAILABLE MACHINE
TEMPS...BY SEVERAL DEGS AT LEAST.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
4 PM UPDATE...THE OVERALL THEME OF A WARM START TO THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...FOLLOWED BY GRADUALLY "COOLER" TEMPS...BUT STILL
REMAINING ABOVE AVERAGE CONTINUES. THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCE OVER THE
LAST 24 HOURS HAS BEEN THE LONG RANGE MODELS NAMELY THE
EURO/GFS/CANADIAN...ALL NOW SHOW A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVING INTO
THE AREA LATE THURSDAY. ASIDE FROM AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND MAYBE
A LATE DAY SHOWER THURSDAY...HIGHS STILL LOOK TO BE VERY WARM
AHEAD OF THE FRONT OR WELL INTO THE 70S ONCE AGAIN.

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN THE ATMOSPHERE IS BRINGING A LINE OF
DIMINISHING SHOWERS INTO THE NORTHWESTERN TERMINALS THIS EVENING.
THE SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF BETWEEN 0Z AND 2Z, AND VFR RESTRICTIONS
ARE ANTICIPATED.

IT WILL BE A QUIET OVERNIGHT, WITH SOME LIGHT FOG FORMING TOWARD
SUNRISE. VISIBILITIES OF 3SM TO 5SM WILL BE LIKELY BETWEEN 8Z AND 12Z.

ANOTHER FRONT WILL SLIDE TOWARD THE REGION LATE MONDAY MORNING.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 13Z AND 19Z, BUT VFR
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL.

.OUTLOOK...

TUE...GNRL VFR DURING THE DAY AND MVFR FOG LATE AT NIGHT.

WED TO THUR...VFR.

FRI...VFR. POSSIBLE MVFR IN LIGHT SHOWERS.

.FIRE WEATHER...
320 PM SUN UPDATE... SCTD SHRA/TSRA AND HIGHER RH VALUES WILL
MITIGATE ANY FIRE WX CONDS MON.

TUE SHOULD SEE LESS PCPN...BUT WINDS LOOK LGT AND VRBL...SO AGAIN
A MINIMAL THREAT IS FORESEEN.

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...HEDEN/MLJ/RRM
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...HEDEN
AVIATION...DJP
FIRE WEATHER...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON NC

1026 PM EDT TUE MAR 20 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
SUMMER-LIKE CONDITIONS...WARM TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A MORE
SIGNIFICANT SPRING-LIKE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST IS PRODUCING A LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WIND ACROSS THE
AREA WITH UNSEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES AND HIGH DEWPOINTS. AT AND
ABOVE THE 700 MB LEVEL A STRONG RIDGE EXISTS ALONG THE APPALACHIANS
WITH NORTHERLY MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW RUNNING FROM THE MID-
ATLANTIC INTO THE COASTAL SOUTHEAST STATES. A SERIES OF UPPER
DISTURBANCES IN THIS COOL FLOW ALOFT HAVE CREATED WAVES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS SPACED ROUGHLY 12-18 HOURS
APART. THE LATEST WAVE CURRENTLY IS MOVING SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA AND MAY BRING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO
INLAND PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. THE LATEST THREE RUNS OF THE HRRR MODEL SHOW CONVECTION
DISSIPATING JUST BEFORE REACHING THE LUMBERTON/ BENNETTSVILLE
VICINITY. LATEST RADAR TRENDS SEEM TO SUPPORT THIS IDEA AS WELL.
THEREFORE WE HAVE LOWERED POPS TO NO HIGHER THAN 30 PERCENT ACROSS
THE BENNETTSVILLE AREA. 20 PERCENT (SLIGHT CHANCE) POPS ARE BEING
RESTRICTED TO AREAS NORTH OF FLORENCE AND MARION...AND WEST OF
WHITEVILLE AND WHITE LAKE. OFFSHORE CONVECTION ALONG THE WESTERN
WALL OF THE GULF STREAM SHOULD HAVE LITTLE LUCK CROSSING THE COLD
NEARSHORE WATERS AND SHOULD NOT AFFECT LAND TONIGHT.

NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO LOW TEMPERATURE FORECASTS...WITH UPPER
50S FORECAST FOR MOST AREAS. FOG POTENTIAL IS LESS THAN THE PREVIOUS
TWO NIGHTS WITH CLOUDINESS EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATER THIS EVENING
WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER DISTURBANCE...BUT POTENTIAL IS STILL HIGH
ENOUGH TO WARRANT THE INCLUSION OF PATCHY OR AREAS OF FOG IN THE
FORECAST. WE`RE ALREADY SEEING SOME MINOR RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY
IN GEORGETOWN AND CONWAY.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...THE HIGH AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE EAST COAST
IS SLOWLY BE PINCHED OFF AS A UPPER LEVEL LOW NORTH OF THE
DELMARVA. THIS LOW WILL SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTH ALONG THE COAST. THIS
WILL BRING A CONTINUED CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. THE TIMING OF THE WEAK SHORTWAVES IS PROBLEMATIC THUS HAVE
KEPT IN THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE
ONSHORE FLOW WILL PROVIDE MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVEL AND THE
UPPER LEVEL WILL INCREASE THE MOISTURE THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN THROUGH OVERNIGHT FRIDAY THUS THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE MID 70S NEAR THE COAST TO AROUND
80 DEGREES INLAND LOWS WILL FALL TO THE UPPER 70S.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE STILL IN PLACE ON FRIDAY
BUT PROBABLY NOT FOR MUCH LONGER AS CUTOFF SLOWLY BOWLS ITS WAY
ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEYS. MUCH OF FRIDAY AFTERNOON LOOKS DRY THEN
BUT SOME HEIGHT FALLS MAY IMPINGE UPON THE REGION FROM THE WEST
TOWARDS EVENING. HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES MAY COME FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS RIBBON OF HIGHEST LOW LEVEL RH COMES THROUGH. CUTOFFS
ARE ALWAYS TRICKY TO TIME SO THE FORECAST WILL BE A BIT MORE
BROAD-BRUSHED. SOME GUIDANCE IS A LITTLE SLOWER ANYWAY AND THIS IS
USUALLY A GOOD SOLUTION WHEN THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE IS AMPLIFIED.
SERIES OF DRY SLOTS AND MOISTURE CHANNELS KEEP CROSSING THE AREA
THROUGH SUNDAY ACCORDING TO GUIDANCE SO ONCE AGAIN THE FORECAST WILL
BE HARD-PRESSED TO CONTAIN MUCH SPECIFICITY BEYOND SCATTERED POPS
FOR MOST OF THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD DOWN CLOSE TO
CLIMO BY BOTH CLOUD COVER AND SOME COOL AIR ADVECTION ESPECIALLY
FOLLOWING SUNDAY SURFACE FROPA. REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL STILL
FIND THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGING OFF THE COAST. HEIGHT RISES AND
CONTINUED COOL AND DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL ROUND OUT THE LONG TERM
WITH MINIMAL CLOUD COVER AND NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD...WITH EXCEPTION OF
POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS DUE TO POTENTIAL
FOG DEVELOPMENT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO
SPREAD FROM VA DOWN INTO NC. AN ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA HERE AND THERE
HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING IN OUR AREA. FOR NOW HAVE LEFT IN VCSH FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...WITH BETTER CHANCES AT KLBT AND KILM.
OTHERWISE...ANTICIPATE CLOUDS TO FILL IN ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LEFTOVER ACTIVITY NORTH OF OUR AREA. THIS COULD INHIBIT ANY FOG
DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE AFTER 9Z. SFC WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...THOUGH
BOUNDARY WINDS WILL BE A BIT STRONGER. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT TEMPO
MVFR/POTENTIAL IFR AT ALL TERMINALS. CONFIDENCE IS LOWERED AT THIS
TIME HOWEVER. AFTER 14Z...ANTICIPATE ANY LINGERING FOG TO QUICKLY
DISSIPATE GIVING WAY TO VFR BKN/OVC SKIES. WINDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY
ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE SOUTHEAST...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AOB 10 KTS
THROUGH THE VALID TAF. CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MORNING FOG/MVFR AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. BETTER CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE IS PROVIDING A
LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WIND ACROSS THE WATERS THIS EVENING.
LATEST HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW THE GULF STREAM SHOWER/T-STORM
ACTIVITY MAY DRIFT IN AS CLOSE AS 15-20 MILES FROM SHORE AFTER
MIDNIGHT IN THE CAPE FEAR AREA WATERS...BUT THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COASTAL WATERS SHOULD REMAIN RAIN-FREE TONIGHT. SEAS AVERAGE 2 FEET
CURRENTLY PRIMARILY IN SOUTHEAST SWELL.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH WINDS SPEEDS AROUND 10 T0 15 KNOTS. THE LOCAL SHALLOW
WAVE MODEL INITIALIZED OFF FORECAST WIND FIELD IS SHOWING WAVE
HEIGHTS RANGING BETWEEN 2 TO 4 FEET.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ON FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE THAT HAD BEEN WELL OFF THE DELMARVA COAST DROPS SOUTH INTO
A MORE SUMMER-LIKE BERMUDA HIGH POSITION. SEAS REMAIN QUITE SMALL
AND MAY EVEN HAVE A BIT OF A NEAR SHORE VS OFFSHORE RANGE OPEN UP AS
THE FLOW BECOMES MORE COAST-PARALLEL. THE APPROACH OF SOME WEAK
SURFACE TROUGHINESS FROM THE WEST ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE UPPER
LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MAY INTRODUCE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE
GRADIENT/WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE BUILDING OF SEAS WILL
TEND TO BEGIN WELL OUT TO SEA BUT A SIMILAR UPTICK SHOULD BE NOTED
ALONG THE OUTER REACHES OF THE 20NM FORECAST ZONES LATER IN THE DAY
SATURDAY. SCEC HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED AS 5 FOOTERS START AFFECTING
SAID AREAS. SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY FROPA TO BRING A FURTHER
INCREASE IN SPEED AS THE DIRECTION STARTS TO VEER TO MORE OFFSHORE
TRAJECTORY. FOR NOW THIS MAY PRECLUDE AN ADVISORY BUT ITS TOUGH TO
RULE OUT SO FAR IN ADVANCE EITHER.

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...HAWKINS
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...SGL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON NC

752 PM EDT TUE MAR 20 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
SUMMER LIKE CONDITIONS...WARM TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A MORE
SIGNIFICANT SPRING LIKE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 730 PM TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST IS PRODUCING A LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WIND ACROSS THE
AREA WITH UNSEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES AND HIGH DEWPOINTS. AT AND
ABOVE THE 700 MB LEVEL A STRONG RIDGE EXISTS ALONG THE APPALACHIANS
WITH NORTHERLY MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW RUNNING FROM THE MID-
ATLANTIC INTO THE COASTAL SOUTHEAST STATES. A SERIES OF UPPER
DISTURBANCES IN THIS COOL FLOW ALOFT HAVE CREATED WAVES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS SPACED 12-24 HOURS APART.
ANOTHER SUCH WAVE CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTHERN VIRGINIA AND NORTHERN
NORTH CAROLINA WILL DROP SOUTH TONIGHT...POTENTIALLY BRINGING SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO INLAND PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
THE LATEST HRRR MODEL SHOWS CONVECTION REACHING THE LUMBERTON/
BENNETTSVILLE VICINITY AROUND 03Z/11PM...MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AND
DISSIPATING AROUND THE TIME IT REACHES THE FLORENCE METRO AREA.
OTHER LOWER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE GENERALLY SUPPORTS THIS IDEA AS
WELL. WE HAVE REDRAWN THE POP/WX GRIDS TONIGHT TO SUPPORT THE HRRR
IDEA WITH THE HIGHEST POPS...40 PERCENT...LATE THIS EVENING TO JUST
AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN ROBESON COUNTY INTO BENNETTSVILLE. 20
(SLIGHT CHANCE) POPS ARE BEING DRAWN IN AS FAR SOUTH AS FLORENCE AND
MARION. CLOSER TO THE COAST THE ANTICIPATED TRAJECTORY OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL REMAIN TOO FAR WEST...AND POPS HERE ARE 10 PERCENT
OR LESS. OFFSHORE CONVECTION ALONG THE WESTERN WALL OF THE GULF
STREAM SHOULD HAVE LITTLE LUCK CROSSING THE COLD NEARSHORE WATERS
AND SHOULD NOT AFFECT LAND TONIGHT.

LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW WILL VEER AROUND
BECOMING E-SE THROUGH THE DAY AS SURFACE HIGH OVER ATLANTIC SHIFTS
BACK WESTWARD. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE RIDING
DOWN IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT PRODUCED SOME SHWRS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS OVER WESTERN COUNTIES BUT HAS NOW DISSIPATED LEAVING
SOME LINGERING CLOUDS. AS WINDS VEER AROUND AND
WITH AN ADDED PUSH FROM THE SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON HIGHER
DEWPOINT AIR WILL MAKE ITS WAY INLAND. EXPECT BEST CONVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY AS IT PUSHES INLAND. OVERALL
CONVECTIVE INDICES DO NOT SEEM AS FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON AND THERE ALSO SEEMS TO BE A BIT OF SUBSIDENCE OVER AREA.
THEREFORE HAVE KEPT ISOLATED CONVECTION FOR MOST AREAS.

UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS WESTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT AS H5 LOW TRIES TO
DEVELOP EAST OF DELMARVA TONIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS MID TO UPPER FLOW
BECOMES SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHWESTERLY. NAM/GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW
ANOTHER IMPULSE RIDING DOWN INTO AREA OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD ADVECT
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SHOWERS/TSTMS INTO AREA OVERNIGHT. AT THE SAME
TIME THE SURFACE HIGH RETROGRADES WESTWARD REINFORCING THE S-SE FLOW
AT THE SURFACE. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A MOIST ON SHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW
AND MAY SEE SOME OF THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OVER OFF SHORE WATERS
MOVE TOWARD THE COAST. WITH ALL THAT SAID...LOCAL AREA MAY STAY IN
BETWEEN THIS OVERNIGHT AND MAY SEE MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS THAN
PCP. MOISTURE PROFILES INDICATE COLUMN MOISTENING UP ABOVE 700 MB AS
MID TO HIGH CLOUDS THICKEN TOWARD MORNING.

TEMPS WILL BE A BIT TRICKY. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR EARLY ON AND WINDS
WILL BECOME CALM. THIS WILL HELP TEMPS TO DROP OUT QUICKLY AFTER
SUNSET AND THEN THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS OVERNIGHT SHOULD STABILIZE
TEMPS. THE MOIST ON SHORE TO SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL ALSO HELP TO
KEEP DEWPOINTS TEMPS HIGHER BUT MAINLY CLOSER TO THE COAST AS MIXING
WILL CUT OVER MOST AREAS. READINGS SHOULD DROP TO THE MID 50S BUT
SLIGHTLY HIGH RIGHT ALONG THE COAST.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE MID 70S NEAR THE COAST TO AROUND
80 DEGREES INLAND LOWS WILL FALL TO THE UPPER 70S.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MORNING FOG/MVFR AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. BETTER CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 730 PM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE IS PROVIDING A
LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WIND ACROSS THE WATERS THIS EVENING.
LATEST HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW THE GULF STREAM SHOWER/T-STORM
ACTIVITY MAY DRIFT IN AS CLOSE AS 15-20 MILES FROM SHORE AFTER
MIDNIGHT IN THE CAPE FEAR AREA WATERS...BUT THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COASTAL WATERS SHOULD REMAIN RAIN-FREE TONIGHT. SEAS AVERAGE 2 FEET
CURRENTLY PRIMARILY IN SOUTHEAST SWELL.

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...HAWKINS
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...SGL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

356 AM CDT MON MAR 19 2012

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST PERIOD CENTER AROUND WINDS AND FIRE
WEATHER. MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY WITH LARGE-SCALE
FEATURES AND USED A BLEND FOR DETAILS.

CURRENTLY...THE UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH WAS OVER THE ROCKIES
WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT MOVING UP THE PLAINS STATES AND INTO
SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA. AT THE SURFACE...THE LOW WAS CENTERED
OVER EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA. SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS HAD
INCREASED IN THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS WITH WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE STATE AT 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH AT
TIMES. DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE STATE INDICATED DRY AIR MOVING INTO
SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S AND 30S. IN
THE CENTRAL AND EAST DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE 40S AND 50S.

MODELS INDICATE THAT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE AND BY LATE
MORNING SURFACE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO LINK WITH FAST-MOVING FLOW ALOFT
TO H850...AND BY EARLY AFTERNOON THE ADIABATIC LINK WILL LIKELY
REACH H700. EXPECTING SOUTHERLY WINDS TO REACH 40 MPH SUSTAINED IN
PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...NAMELY SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER AND AS FAR EAST AS KILLDEER/DICKINSON/HETTINGER. THUS HAVE
UPGRADED THE HIGH WIND WATCH TO A HIGH WIND WARNING IN THESE
COUNTIES FOR LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. WIND
SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH AT LEAST 30 MPH FOR THE REST OF WESTERN
AND MOST OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. UPGRADED THE HIGH WIND WATCH IN
THESE AREAS TO A WIND ADVISORY WITH THE SAME TIMING AS IN THE
WARNING.

SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION FOR DETAILS OF THE CURRENT RED FLAG WARNING.

LOOKING AT HIGHS AROUND 60 FAR WEST TO AROUND 70 IN EASTERN PARTS OF
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

THE MODELS INDICATE THE SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK NORTHWARD INTO
SOUTHEASTERN SASKATCHEWAN BY EVENING...AND INTO NORTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA BY TUESDAY MORNING. AS THE LOW MOVES
NORTH...WINDS IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND WESTERLY TONIGHT AND BRING IN COOLER AIR AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE STATE
TONIGHT. EXPECTING LOWS TONIGHT FROM THE UPPER 20S WEST TO THE 30S
IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

COOLER TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL
AGAIN INCREASE TUESDAY WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS IN RESPONSE TO THE
FAST-MOVING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND ANOTHER SURFACE LOW MOVING EAST
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE IN
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW. THE NORTHWEST HALF OF NORTH DAKOTA SHOULD SEE
SOUTHWEST WINDS REACHING 25 MPH BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

SEE THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR IMPLICATIONS REGARDING THE
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

WE BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH QUASI-ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND A CUTOFF LOW IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE
PERIOD WILL BEGIN ON A QUIET NOTE WITH DRY CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY. UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL
RESULT IN DOWNSTREAM RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND WILL ALLOW
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO DRIFT
NORTH. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL PUSH INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES OF THE LOCAL AREA. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY TO AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 83
CORRIDOR. UPSTREAM RIDGING WILL PUSH THE SYSTEM OUT OF THE AREA BY
FRIDAY EVENING.

MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON THEIR SOLUTIONS AFTER THIS AND
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN INTO THE WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. GENERALLY SPEAKING...THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL BE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...WITH NORTH DAKOTA
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE...SHORTWAVE ENERGY EXITING AN
EASTERN PACIFIC/WESTERN U.S. TROUGH WILL SKIRT THE NORTHERN TIER
COUNTIES. WILL THEREFORE CONTINUE A MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IN THE NORTH.

LATE IN THE PERIOD...THE GFS IS QUICKER TO EJECT THE WESTERN U.S.
TROUGH AND BRINGS INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER THE LOCAL
AREA BY LATE SUNDAY. THE ECMWF/GEM AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FAVOR A
SLOWER SOLUTION...KEEPING THE UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH WARMEST READINGS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...THEN COOLING DOWN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

.AVIATION...

STRONG LOW PRESSURE IS LIFTING NORTH THROUGH FAR EASTERN MONTANA
WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW PUSHING NORTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. FORECAST MODELS AND MET GUIDANCE IS ONCE
AGAIN SUGGESTING POSSIBLE LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT OVER CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA AROUND 12 UTC THIS MORNING. LATEST HRRR IS ALSO INDICATING
AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING AROUND 12 UTC. CURRENTLY NOTHING IS
INDICATED FROM SURFACE OBS OR SATELLITE...ALTHOUGH HIGH CLOUDS ARE
OBSCURING THE VIEW. WILL LIKELY BE ANOTHER GAME TIME DECISION ON
WHETHER OR NOT TO MENTION A PERIOD OF MVFR-IFR CLOUDINESS AT
BISMARCK...MINOT AND JAMESTOWN. MOISTURE POOLING NORTH OF THE
SURFACE LOW IS CREATING AREAS OF FOG IN NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA...AND MAY NEED A MENTION OF FOG THIS MORNING AT WILLISTON.
BY MID TO LATE MORNING...THE SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO NORTHEAST
MONTANA AND DRY AIR WILL HAVE INTRUDED INTO ALL OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE CONCERN FROM MID-LATE MORNING ON WILL BE
WINDS WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW. SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 40 MPH
POSSIBLE IN DICKINSON...AND OVER 30 MPH ELSEWHERE FROM MID MORNING
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. DIMINISHING WINDS WILL SHIFT WEST LATE
AFTERNOON IN THE WEST...AND CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT AT JAMESTOWN. WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE WEST THIS EVENING...WITH A
POSSIBLE PERIOD OF MVFR CLOUDINESS AT DICKINSON AND
WILLISTON...BUT AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTH THE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED
TO DISSIPATE BEFORE MOVING INTO BISMARCK AND MINOT.

.FIRE WEATHER...

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER PERIOD TODAY. THE 25 TO 40 MPH WINDS EXPECTED
TODAY WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH WILL COMBINE WITH LOW HUMIDITY TO BRING
THE FIRE DANGER INTO THE EXTREME CATEGORY FOR ALL OF WESTERN AND
MOST OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO
THE TEENS ACROSS MOST OF THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE TODAY...WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S OVER THE REST OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH ONLY
THE JAMES RIVER BASIN RETAINING HIGHER HUMIDITY WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE 30-45 RANGE. THUS MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM 10 TO 25 PERCENT OVER MOST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...WITH 30 TO 35 PERCENT IN THE JAMES RIVER BASIN.

ON TUESDAY DRY AIR IS AGAIN EXPECTED TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE WITH
DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE TEENS OVER ALL OF WESTERN AND MOST OF
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY SHOULD BE IN THE 15
TO 25 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THIS AREA...BUT WINDS IN THE SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ARE EXPECTED TO REACH ONLY 10 TO 20 MPH. THUS
HAVE DROPPED THESE COUNTIES FROM THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH. THE WEST
AND NORTH CENTRAL COUNTIES SHOULD HAVE SUFFICIENT WINDS OF 25 MPH TO
KEEP THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH GOING. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO UPGRADE
TO A RED FLAG WARNING JUST YET. ALSO CHANGED TIMING OF THE WATCH TO
REFLECT WHEN POSSIBLE RED FLAG CONDITIONS WOULD BE MET - MAINLY
AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING.

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM CDT /NOON MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM
CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-
031>036-040>047-050.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR NDZ001>005-009>013-017>022-031>033-040-041-043.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CDT
/8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NDZ001>005-009>013-019>023-025-
034>037-042-045>047-050.

HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING TO 9 PM
CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NDZ017-018-031>033-040-041-043-
044.

SHORT TERM/FIRE WEATHER...JV
LONG TERM/AVIATION....TWH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON OH

141 PM EDT MON MAR 19 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW AN
UNSEASONABLY WARM AIRMASS TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
DISTURBANCES IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE INTERACTING WITH AN UNSTABLE
AIRMASS WILL PRODUCE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. AN UPPER
LEVEL HIGH WILL MOVE IN LATE MONDAY WHICH WILL BRING AN END TO THE
THUNDERSTORMS.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HEAT AND INSTABILITY WILL AGAIN GROW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE MAX TEMP
FORECAST...WHICH CURRENTLY BRINGS HIGHS TO NEAR THEIR RECORD
VALUES (CVG 81...CMH 77...DAY 78).

STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ALLOW FOR INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP
TODAY...WITH AROUND 1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE EXPECTED (MAYBE 1500 IN
SPOTS). HOWEVER...THE CWA WILL BE NEAR THE CENTER OF A MID LEVEL
RIDGE...AND WIND SHEAR TODAY IS AT THE LOW END OF THE SPECTRUM. AT
THIS TIME...THE RECENT HRRR RUNS SEEM TO BE ON THEIR OWN IN TERMS
OF DEVELOPING A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CWA.
WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DISCERNIBLE FORCING...IT IS MORE LIKELY
THAT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE MOSTLY
DISORGANIZED AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN. THE INSTABILITY IS PROBABLY
ENOUGH TO WARRANT A RISK OF A STRONG STORM...BUT THE LACK OF SHEAR
AND FORCING SEEM TO PRECLUDE A MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT.

TAILORED THE POPS A BIT WITH THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCE SHIFTING
NORTH THROUGH TIME...EXITING THE SOUTHERN CWA BY EVENING AND THE
NORTHERN CWA BY EARLY IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE BECOMES MORE ESTABLISHED TONIGHT...FORCING THE
CONVECTION E. THE RIDGE WILL THEN REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE REST
OF THE PERIOD...KEEPING ANY CONVECTION CAPPED.

TEMPERATURES WILL STAY UNSEASONABLY WARM. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 80
EACH DAY AND WILL BE CLOSE TO OR ABOVE RECORD HIGHS.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WITH A LARGE SPRAWLING
RIDGE CONTINUING TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. PREFER SLOWER ECMWF SOLN GIVEN HIGH DEGREE OF
AMPLIFICATION. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPS
AND DRY WEATHER WEATHER THRU MID WEEK.

HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY FCST FOR THURSDAY. EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 70S NORTH TO 80 SOUTH ON BOTH WED AND THU. AGAIN
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN JEOPARDY. RECORD HIGHS FOR WED
ARE 82 AT CVG, 78 AT DAY AND 77 AT CMH. THE RECORDS FOR THURSDAY
ARE WARMER WITH...85 CVG, 84 AT DAY AND 82 AT CMH.

NUMERICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND SLOWER BUT ARE HAVING A DIFFICULT
TIME WITH CONSISTENCY REGARDING EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF UPPER LOW
OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION. WILL INTRODUCE LOW POPS INTO THE SW
EARLY FRIDAY AND THEN SPREAD CHC POPS NE ACRS THE FA DURG THE DAY.

WL BUMP POPS UP TO HIGH CHC EARLY SATURDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF SFC
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. UNDER CONTD INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LOW...WL
CONTINUE LOW POPS THRU SAT AND THEN DIMINISH TO SLIGHT CHC ON SUNDAY
AS THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO SHIFT SE.

HIGH TEMPS WILL COOL BUT REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL...WITH FCST HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 60S/70S ON FRIDAY AND LOWER AND MID 60S SATURDAY AND THEN
UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S.

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY FOR THE MOST PART. SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL AND WEST CENTRAL OHIO. GIVEN
THE EXPECTED COVERAGE (WIDELY SCATTERED) HAVE INCLUDED VCSH IN THE
TAFS FOR NOW AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION.

OVERNIGHT...SOME FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE THE MOISTURE IS A BIT
HIGHER IN CENTRAL OHIO...AND ALSO AT KLUK. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND BECOME RATHER LIGHT. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY...WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
AND VFR CLOUDS.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY.

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/SITES
NEAR TERM...HATZOS
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HATZOS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON OH

1047 AM EDT MON MAR 19 2012

TAILORED THE POPS A BIT WITH THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCE SHIFTING
NORTH THROUGH TIME...EXITING THE SOUTHERN CWA BY EVENING AND THE
NORTHERN CWA BY EARLY IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES WILL STAY UNSEASONABLY WARM. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 80
EACH DAY AND WILL BE CLOSE TO OR ABOVE RECORD HIGHS.

HIGH TEMPS WILL COOL BUT REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL...WITH FCST HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 60S/70S ON FRIDAY AND LOWER AND MID 60S SATURDAY AND THEN
UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S.

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PATCHY FOG MAY BE LOCALLY DENSE BUT WILL LIKELY NOT HIT ANY OF THE
TAF SITES WITH FOG LESS THAN A MILE...AND ONLY BE AN ISSUE FOR AN
HOUR OR SO AFTER DAYBREAK THIS MORNING. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
ABOUND TODAY. WHERE THEY THIN THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH HEATING AND
MOISTURE TO SUPPORT SOME DAYTIME CU THAT POSSIBLY GOES BKN AT
TIMES BUT SHOULD BE WELL INTO THE VFR CATEGORY.

FELT THAT SINCE THE UPPER LEVEL S/W THAT WAS HELPING SPARK EARLIER
CONVECTION HAS MOVED EAST...THAT SHOWERS OR ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS WOULD
BE A RARITY THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE STILL POSSIBLE...I DO NOT SEE
THE NEED FOR PUTTING IN THE CHANCE OF PRECIP TODAY UNTIL IT CAN BE
AMENDED WITH A CERTAINTY OF OCCURRENCE.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY.

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/SITES
NEAR TERM...HATZOS
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...FRANKS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CLEVELAND OH

206 AM EDT MON MAR 19 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
MID WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL HAS ENDED TO CANCELLED THE FLOOD WARNING
EVEN THOUGH A FEW COUNTIES MAY STILL HAVE SOME MINOR FLOODING
GOING ON. OTHERWISE SOME DECREASE IN CLOUDS OVER NORTHWEST OHIO
AND SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG MAY DEVELOP. THE HRRR MODEL THINKS SOME
SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP IN THIS AREA...KEPT IT DRY. OTHERWISE THE
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER EXTREME EASTERN OHIO AND
NORTHWEST PA WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST. ADJUSTED SOME OF THE LOWS DOWN
BASED ON 9 PM READINGS.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK AS
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA AND WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE.
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE PREDOMINATELY DRY THROUGH MID WEEK. DID
MENTION CHC TSRA MONDAY AFTERNOON AS CAPES BUILD TO BETWEEN 1000
J/KG AND 1500. HOWEVER...LACK OF ANY KICKER COULD HINDER
DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON TSRA.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COOLER TREND FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WITH AN UPPER LOW MOVING INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY AND A COLD FRONT COMING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
TIMING STILL IS AN ISSUE AND LIKELY THIS WILL TAKE A COUPLE/FEW DAYS
TO CROSS THE REGION. MODEL DIFFERENCES ON PHASING BETWEEN NORTHERN
SHORTWAVE AND THE MID U.S. UPPER LOW. EVEN MORE DIFFERENCE UPON
TIMING OF ITS EXIT AND THE ARRIVAL OF HIGH PRESSURE...WITH THE ECMWF
STILL THE FASTEST AND ALSO A LITTLE COOLER. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL...WILL JUST BE ABOUT 15 OR SO DEGREES COOLER FOR HIGHS
THIS WEEKEND.

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MAKE FOG A CONCERN IN AREAS WHERE SKIES
CLEAR OUT TONIGHT. TOL HAS ALREADY DROPPED TO A QUATER MILE WITH
LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW BRINGING MOISTURE OFF LAKE ERIE WITH OTHER
VISIBILITIES ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO STARTING TO FALL. SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDS IN THE 4-8K RANGE INCREASING ACROSS NW OHIO
AND IF THIS CAN BECOME WIDESPREAD ENOUGH THEN IT MAY HELP
VISIBILITIES FROM DROPPING TO LIFR. FURTHER EAST CLOUDS AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS LINGER AND WILL BE SLOWER TO CLEAR AND SEE FOG
DEVELOPMENT.

FOG IS EXPECTED TO BURN OFF AS SOUTHWESTERY FLOW DEVELOPS ON MONDAY
MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY EVEN A THUNDERSTORM BUT COVERAGE WAS TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE IN MOST OF THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE IN MORNING BR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
NON VFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

.MARINE...
OUTSIDE OF ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...LAKE CONDITIONS QUIET.
LIGHT FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK AND FOR THE MOST PART
WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY. THERE IS A FRONT THAT WILL MOVING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL LAKES MID WEEK AND MAY WANT TO SLIP ACROSS LAKE ERIE
THURSDAY...BUT TIMING OF FEATURES LATE THIS WEEK COMPLICATED BY A
CUT OFF LOW THAT WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY SLOWLY TO THE OHIO VALLEY.

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJB
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...DJB
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...OUDEMAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY

NWS RAPID CITY SD

1120 PM MDT SUN MAR 18 2012

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS
DYNAMIC SITUATION IN PLACE OVERNIGHT WITH LOW OVER SOUTHEAST MT
THAT WILL MOVE INTO ND. INITIAL TROUGH/COLD FRONT IS SURGING ONTO
THE SD PLAINS WITH GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF IT AND GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS BEHIND IT. SECONDARY COLD FRONT FROM LOW INTO
SOUTHERN MT WILL SURGE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WITH
STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF IT AND VERY WINDY NORTHWEST WINDS
BEHIND IT. LEFTOVER -SHRA TONIGHT WITH SOME POST FRONTAL -SHRA
POSSIBLE MONDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE WITH SOME SC AROUND
4KFT AND BKN-OVC MID/HIGH CLOUDS.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 823 PM MDT SUN MAR 18 2012/

UPDATE...02Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW OVER SOUTHEAST MT AND COLD
FRONT INTO CENTRAL CO. WATER VAPOUR HAD SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHEAST
WY/NE PANHANDLE...ON THE NOSE OF A 110KT JET. THIS WAVE WILL
RAPIDLY MOVE NORTH TONIGHT PUSHING COLD FRONT INTO THE CWA FROM
THE WEST. AHEAD OF IT...GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE BUT
DIURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER EFFECTS ARE STARTING TO DECOUPLE 50KT LOW
LEVEL JET FROM MIXED LAYER. THUS WILL ALLOW WIND HEADLINES TO
EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE AT 03Z. MOIST TONGUE HAD 50-PLUS DEW POINTS
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD INTO CENTRAL NE. NARROW AXIS OF INSTABILITY
ALLOWING FOR SOME CONVECTION. FURTHER WEST...SOME -SHRA NOTED WITH
MAIN SYNOPTIC FORCING...BUT LAPSE RATES STEEP ENOUGH TO LEAVE
SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THERE THROUGH 06Z.

WITH THESE TRENDS IN MIND AND HRRR SOLUTIONS...WILL BRING SOME
POPS CWA-WIDE THIS EVENING AND ACROSS THE NORTH THROUGH EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT.

FIRE WEATHER...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL RECOVER ENOUGH TO ALLOW
RED FLAG WARNING TO EXPIRE ON-TIME AT 03Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 653 PM MDT SUN MAR 18 2012/

UPDATE...00Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW OVER CENTRAL WY WITH DECENT
GRADIENT OVER THE CWA. BEST GRADIENT FROM SOUTHWEST THROUGH SOUTH
CENTRAL SD WHERE CONTINUED MIXING IS ALLOWING VERY WINDY
CONDITIONS TO PERSIST. FURTHER NORTH WHERE CI/CS SHIELD DROPPED IN
DURING THE AFTERNOON...WINDS ARE JUST BREEZY/WINDY...SO WILL
CANCEL WIND ADVISORY FOR THOSE AREAS.

00Z KUNR SOUNDING SHOWED IMPRESSIVE LAPSE RATES AGAIN. WATER
VAPOUR HAD MAIN SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER NORTH CENTRAL CO/SOUTHEAST
WY ON NOSE OF 110KT JET. THIS WILL PUSH LOW NORTHEAST
TONIGHT...ALLOWING COLDER AIR TO FILTER OVER WESTERN AREAS. STRONG
WIND FIELD MAY SUPPORT GUSTY WINDS NEAR ANY -SHRA/-TSRA THAT
DEVELOP OVER NORTHEASTERN WY AND SOUTH CENTRAL SD TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 234 PM MDT SUN MAR 18 2012/

TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

DEEP LONG WAVE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH CONTINUES ITS SLOW MARCH TO THE
NE...WITH SFC PRESSURE FALLS ONGOING ACROSS WY AND SOUTHERN MT AS A
PORTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH FRACTURES AND BEGINS TO ADVECT NE. THIS
STRONG IMPULSE WILL MERGE WITH A NW CONUS ADVANCING TROUGH AND
SUPPORT SFC LOW ADVECTION NE INTO THE CANADIAN PLAINS. HEIGHT FALLS
CONTINUE INTO WY WITH DESTABILIZATION ONGOING THERE PER LL WARMING
AND UPPER LEVEL COOLING. A FEW HIGH BASED SHRA AND ISOLD TS HAVE
DEVELOPED FARTHER WEST OUTSIDE THE FA...WHERE A LITTLE BETTER UPPER
SUPPORT IS IN PLACE. SFC BASED INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
THIS AFTERNOON OVER NE WY...WITH THE SFC TROUGH EXPECTED TO APPROACH
THE REGION...SUPPORTING LOW CHANCE POPS INTO THIS EVENING
THERE...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE WESTERN BLACK HILLS. OTHERWISE...WARM
WINDY CONDITIONS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION...AS MIXING
HEIGHTS INCREASE AND LL FLOW RESPONDS TO THE HEIGHT FIELD. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH WIND ADV
CRITERIA EXPECTED TO BE REACHED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. STRONG 125+ KNOT UPPER LEVEL JETLET ASSOCIATED WITH THE
MAIN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SW CONUS...WILL ADVECT NNE TOWARD THE
REGION TONIGHT...WITH THE NOSE OF THE UPPER JET EXPECTED TO ADVECT
OVER THE FA. LEFT EXIT REGION INDUCED UPWARD ASCENT WILL HELP IN
FURTHER DEEPENING THE SFC LOW...IN ADDITION TO ACCENTUATING THE LLJ.
FORECAST MODELS ARE STILL INDICATING INCREASING DEEPER MOISTURE OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL SD...GIVEN H85 THETA-E RISES INTO THE 320-330K RANGE
THROUGH 06Z...AHEAD OF THE LEAD SFC TROUGH. GIVEN THE POSITION OF
THE UPPER JET RIGHT EXIT REGION/INCREASING LL MOISTURE/AND
INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT...CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHRA OR
TS OVER THE FAR SE. HAVE INCORPORATED A 6 HOUR PERIOD OF TS MENTION
THERE. OTHERWISE...DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION CHANCES OVER NE WY
WILL WANE THROUGH EVENING.

AFOREMENTIONED UPPER IMPULSE WILL PHASE WITH A NORTHERN STREAM
COUNTERPART AND SUPPORT A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION MONDAY.
CONTINUED WEAK UPGLIDE OVER WESTERN SD MAY SUPPORT A LIGHT SHOWER
OVER THE FAR SE...WITH CONVECTIVE SHOWERS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE SFC COLD FRONT IN NE WY...LIKELY DIURNALLY
ENHANCED. COOLING PROFILES SUGGEST RAIN MAY MIX WITH SNOW DURING THE
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...SFC TEMPS IN THE 40S WILL PRECLUDE ACCUMS.
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL WANE THROUGH EVENING OVER NE WY AND THE
WESTERN/NORTHERN BLACK HILLS...WITH ANY RESIDUAL SHRA TRANSITIONING
TO SNOW. SOME LIGHT ACCUMS ARE POSSIBLE.

OTHERWISE...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AHEAD OF THE SFC COLD
FRONT MON...WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 20 TO 30 MPH OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF WESTERN SD. WIND ADV CRITERIA MAY BE REACHED CLOSER TO THE
ND BORDER GIVEN SIG PRESSURE FALLS ONGOING OVER NE MT.

SFC COLD WILL PUSH EAST OF THE REGION...COMING THROUGH DRY OVER SD
AS THE MAIN LOBE OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT SHIFTS NORTH INTO MT/ND/SK.

DRY BUT STILL MILD WEATHER IS ON TRACK FOR TUES...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES EXPECTED.

EXTENDED...A MAINLY DRY AND MILD WEATHER PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED FOR
THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
IS PROGGED TO BE IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS MIDWEEK AND
SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEK. DEPENDING
ON THE ULTIMATE MOVEMENT OF THE LOW...THERE COULD BE A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS OVER MAINLY SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. VARIOUS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING AND MOVEMENT OF
THE SYSTEM WITH A STRONG RIDGE TO THE EAST OF THE REGION. GFS BRINGS
IT THE FURTHEST NORTH...WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWESTERN INTO CENTRAL SD. WILL GO WITH THE CONSENSUS OF THE
MODELS AND KEEP DRY FOR NOW. OTHERWISE...TEMPS WILL BE WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S ON MOST
DAYS...A BIT COOLER OVER THE BLACK HILLS.

FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHEASTERN WY AND WESTERN SD THIS AFTERNOON AS WINDS INCREASE AND
HUMIDITIES DROP TO NEAR OR BELOW 15 PERCENT. THESE CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE
HUMIDITIES SLOWLY RISE AND WINDS GRADUALLY DECREASE.

ON MONDAY...GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE LOWER...BUT A VERY DRY
AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL DROP RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO AROUND 15 PERCENT
ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA IN THE
AFTERNOON. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVER THESE AREAS IN THE AFTERNOON AND PERSIST UNTIL AROUND SUNSET. A
COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...
BRINGING LOWER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER HUMIDITIES FOR TUESDAY.

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MDT MONDAY FOR BADLANDS AREA-
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS-NORTHERN BLACK HILLS-
NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS-SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA-
SOUTHERN BLACK HILLS-SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.

WY...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...WFO UNR
LONG TERM....WFO UNR
AVIATION...HELGESON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS ABERDEEN SD

1214 AM CDT MON MAR 19 2012

.UPDATE...
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

EXCEPTIONALLY WARM EVENING CONTINUES THIS EVENING AS STRONG LLV
SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES. ABR STILL 72F AS OF THIS WRITING WITH NO
REAL END IN SITE TO AT LEAST MODERATE SOUTH WINDS. RAISED
OVERNIGHT LOWS TO THE WELL PERFORMING BCCONSRAW GUIDANCE LEVELS BUT
THEY MAY NOT BE WARM ENOUGH. 53F IS THE ALL TIME MARCH RECORD FOR
HIGHEST MINIMUM TEMPERATURE AT ABERDEEN. WITH SOUTH WINDS
CONTINUING...THANKS TO A STRENGTHENING LLJ... AND HIGH CLOUDS
INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH...EXPECT THAT TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO
FALL BELOW 60F BY MORNING. ALSO ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHWEST ZONES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT GIVEN
LATEST HRRR RUNS AND RADAR OBSERVATIONS SHOWING THUNDERSTORMS
PROPAGATING NWD THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

MODELS ARE NOT BEING OVERLY HELPFUL WITH THE LACK OF CONSISTENCY
ON THE CURRENT ROCKY MOUNTAIN LOW AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE DAKOTAS ON MONDAY. THIS DEVELOPING LOW
WILL PROGRESS NORTH INTO CANADA AND THEN EAST TRACKING A 65 KT LLJ
OVER THE DAKOTAS TONIGHT. KEPT A SMALL CHANCE OF TSTORMS ACROSS
CODINGTON/HAMLIN/DEUEL COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT AS THE JET PROGRESSES
FARTHER EAST. WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE AND ABOUT
1000 J/KG CAPE SOMETHING MAY KICK OFF. DID NOT PUT ANY TSTORMS
FARTHER WEST DUE TO LACK OF MOISTURE THIS EVENING. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT ON MONDAY THERE ARE TWO AREAS OF CONCERN. ONE WILL BE THE
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS. WITH PRESSURE FALLS OF AROUND 15 TO 20 MB
AND SOME CAA THIS MAY WARRANT A WIND ADVISORY...BUT WILL PUNT THIS
DECISION TO THE NEXT SHIFT. AS THE WINDS INCREASE...RH WILL ALSO
DROP WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER TO 15 TO 20 PERCENT. SO THE SECOND
CONCERN WILL BE TO CONSIDER ANOTHER RFW FOR MONDAY...THOUGH
FARTHER WEST THAN WHAT IS IN PLACE TODAY.

SOME MORE TSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY OUT AHEAD OF THE FROPA
WITH SHOWERS LINGERING BEHIND. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL OFF A BIT
WITH ADDED CLOUD COVER TO AROUND 70 DEGREES ACROSS THE REGION.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT HIGHS WILL REACH ONLY INTO THE UPPER 50S ON TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
MAIN FEATURE TO WATCH IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS THE CUTOFF LOW
THAT WOBBLES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE
BROUGHT THIS FEATURE A BIT FARTHER NORTH WHICH ALLOWS OUTER RAIN
BAND TO REACH THE EASTERN CWA. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS HAVE BEEN
INSERTED ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
OTHERWISE...THIS IS ABOUT THE ONLY FEATURE TO DEAL WITH DURING THE
FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL
WITH READINGS IN THE 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

FOR KABR AND KATY...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MAKE A RETURN LATER
TONIGHT SO EXPECT AREAS/PATCHY OF MVFR/IFR CIGS TO DEVELOP ONCE
AGAIN AFTER APPROXIMATELY 09Z MONDAY. THESE CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE LATE MONDAY MORNING. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...COULD
SEE A FEW HIGH BASED -SHRAS/-TSRAS VCNTY KATY AND KABR. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 25-35 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

FARTHER WEST AT KMBG AND KPIR...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AN ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA IS POSSIBLE
EARLY TONIGHT VCNTY KPIR. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL MAKE A
RETURN MONDAY AFTERNOON.

.FIRE WEATHER...
EXTREME FIRE CONDITIONS TOPS FORECAST PRIORITIES AGAIN TODAY.
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AGAIN POSSIBLE. A HUMID AIRMASS HAS SET
UP IN THE EAST...WHILE WEST IS LESS HUMID AND SHOULD MIX OUT MORE
EFFICIENTLY. THAT WILL CREATE A TIGHT NORTH TO SOUTH GRADIENT IN
THE HUMIDITY TODAY...BETWEEN MOBRIDGE AND ABERDEEN AND BETWEEN
PIERRE AND HURON. HIGH WINDS DEPEND ON THE DEGREE OF MIXING WITH
STRONG WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE ABLE TO MIX DOWN MORE EFFICIENTLY
IN SOUTH CENTRAL COUNTIES. A LOW LEVEL JET WILL FORM AHEAD OF OUR
SYSTEM TONIGHT...SO WHILE WINDS WILL LESSEN...THEY WILL REMAIN
GUSTY...WHICH WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES MILD OVERNIGHT.

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...SD
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...SD

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX

1247 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION.

.AVIATION...COUPLE OF AVIATION CONCERNS FOR THIS TAF CYCLE.
DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM OUT WEST HAS PRODUCED STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS AREA...WITH STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE
TERMINALS. AWW FOR CORPUS CHRISTI FOR 35 KNOT GUSTS WILL CONTINUE
UNTIL 6 PM. LOW CLOUDS HAVE SCATTERED OUT AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT
FOR ALI BUT EXPECT ALI TO IMPROVE TO VFR SHORTLY. CONVECTION WILL
BE THE OTHER ISSUE. THUNDERSTORMS INITIALLY MAY INTO THE WESTERN
PARTS OF THE BRUSH COUNTRY THIS EVENING...AND INCLUDED CB REMARKS
FOR LRD. INSERTED VCTS AT ALI/CRP/VCT TO ACCOUNT FOR SQUALL LINE
THAT WILL PROGRESS W TO E ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY/COASTAL BEND
REGIONS. ALSO EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT BACK INTO
THE MVFR RANGE AND PERHAPS IFR DUE TO THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW.
INTRODUCED WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH AT THE TERMINALS AS FRONT MOVES
THROUGH.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 704 AM CDT MON MAR 19 2012/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION.

AVIATION...SHOWERS HAVE MAINLY MOVED OUT OF THE AREA AS OF
12Z...ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS ARE STILL IN THE VICINITY OF
VICTORIA. EXPECT CIGS TO IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY...WITH LRD
EXPECTED TO GO SCT OR FEW IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY WITH A LLJ CONTINUING OVER THE AREA. TONIGHT WITH
A 40-50KT LLJ ACROSS THE AREA AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL
SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED. HAVE INCLUDED TSRA IN ALL
TAFS EXCEPT LRD WHERE CHANCES ARE A BIT LOWER. THESE SHOWERS AND
STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BRING VERY STRONG WIND GUSTS. THE
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE LAREDO AREA LATE IN THIS TAF
PERIOD...AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THE REST OF TUESDAY MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 433 AM CDT MON MAR 19 2012/

SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A COUPLE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. THE MOST
CONCENTRATED AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS HAS BEEN CLOSELY
ASSOCIATED WITH A VORT MAX PROGGED WELL IN THE RUC MODEL. THE VORT
MAX CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT PUSHES TO THE NORTHWEST AND AS
EXPECTED SHOWERS ARE WEAKENING AS WELL...WITH JUST A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKES REMAINING. THINK MOST OF TODAY WILL BE DRY ACROSS SOUTH
TEXAS WITH JUST SOME ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH
ADDITIONAL WEAK SHORT WAVES PROPAGATING AROUND MAIN TROUGH. MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE SIGNIFICANT CLEARING EVEN POSSIBLY IN WESTERN
CWA. THIS WOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES IN WEBB COUNTY TO INCREASE
QUITE A BIT...CURRENTLY FORECASTING HIGHS IN THE MID 90S...BUT
CAN`T DISCOUNT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME AREAS GETTING A COUPLE OF
DEGREES WARMER IF SKIES CLEAR. WITH LLJ NOT WEAKENING MUCH THROUGH
THE DAY TODAY SHOULD MIX DOWN SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 40MPH THIS
AFTERNOON SO HAVE ISSUED WIND ADVISORY FOR EASTERN HALF OF
FORECAST AREA.

THE FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST RESIDES IN THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. INGREDIENTS LOOK
DECENT FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES. SOUTHERN BRANCH OF SPLIT UPPER JET IS PROGGED A BIT
FARTHER SOUTH TONIGHT THAN MODEL GUIDANCE WAS INDICATING LAST NIGHT.
THIS SHOULD HELP THE CAUSE FOR DEVELOPMENT. WIND THREAT WOULD BE THE
GREATEST SEVERE THREAT...AS 40-50KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD TONIGHT COINCIDING WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS. WITH SLIGHTLY
SLOWER TIMING OF TROUGH...BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WILL BE AFTER
MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA BEING THE MAIN TARGET. MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR VICTORIA
INDICATE 1500J/KG CAPE OVERNIGHT...WITH LI/S AROUND -5. LAPSE RATES
ARE ONLY MODERATE IN THIS REGION HOWEVER...IN THE 5-7C/KM RANGE. HAVE
INCLUDED SEVERE WORDING ON FORECAST MAINLY FOR THE NORTHERN 2/3 OF
THE FORECAST AREA. SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH A MODERATE RISK IN CENTRAL TEXAS.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...MAIN ISSUE THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE IS WHETHER TO PLACE POPS IN AFTER TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
GENERALLY KEEPING SIMILAR POPS FOR TUESDAY AS ADVERTISED IN PREVIOUS
PACKAGES. SPC HAS SLIGHT RISK ON BORDER OF AREA FOR DAY 2...AND WILL
GENERALLY NOT SWAY FROM THIS). MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING THAT...AFTER
THE MCS COMES ACROSS ON TUESDAY (NSSL AND NCEP WRF MODELS ARE
KEEPING BIG CONVECTION TO THE NORTH THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY AND
EXTRAPOLATION KEEPS THEM NORTH)...SOME DRYING OCCURS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON UP TO 850 MB THEN SOME WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE
700-300 MB LAYER COMES IN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT (DRYING FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY EVENING).
THIS IS A POTENT UPPER SYSTEM...AND MODELS FOR DAYS HAVE BEEN TOYING
WITH POSSIBLE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TUESDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE FACT THE
MODEL CONSENSUS IS SLOWING UPPER SYSTEM DOWN SOME...AND GUIDANCE IS
GOING NEARLY LIKELY ON THE RAINFALL (THINK THIS IS OVER-DONE)...HAVE
DECIDED TO INCLUDE POPS TUESDAY NIGHT MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF CWFA. COULD EVEN SEE SOME THUNDER OVER THE EXTREME EASTERN
AREAS/GULFMEX TUESDAY NIGHT. FARTHER WEST...SPRINKLES AT BEST. AFTER
TUESDAY NIGHT...THINK UPPER SYSTEM WILL BE FAR ENOUGH NORTH AND
SUFFICIENT DRYING OVER THE AREA TO END RAIN (GFS-MOS STILL HAS
CHANCE POPS EASTERN AREAS BUT WILL IGNORE THIS). MODELS ARE
RELATIVELY CONSISTENT UNTIL THE END OF THE WORK WEEK IN KEEPING A
WEAK UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA...THEN DIVERGE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH
THE GFS PUSHING THE RIDGE EAST AND MOVING A TROUGH TOWARD THE
WESTERN CWFA LATE SUNDAY. THE ECMWF HOWEVER KEEPS THE RIDGE OVER THE
AREA (BUT NOT BRINGING A BOUNDARY DOWN LIKE IT DID ON YESTERDAY`S
00Z RUN). FOR NOW...WILL KEEP THE FORECAST RAIN-FREE BUT BRING IN
THE MOISTURE A LITTLE FASTER THAN BEFORE AND INCREASE OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES SOME. OVERALL...TENDED TO GO MORE WITH THE WARMER
FORECAST NUMBERS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...THEN OVERALL DID A
CONSENSUS FORECAST BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS FOR
TEMPERATURES AND MOST OTHER PARAMETERS.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 72 83 54 75 54 / 50 60 30 10 0
VICTORIA 70 74 53 72 51 / 70 80 40 10 10
LAREDO 68 83 53 81 54 / 40 20 10 10 0
ALICE 72 82 53 78 51 / 50 50 20 10 0
ROCKPORT 71 78 56 72 59 / 50 70 40 10 0
COTULLA 62 77 49 78 50 / 70 30 10 10 10
KINGSVILLE 71 83 52 77 51 / 50 50 30 10 0
NAVY CORPUS 71 81 57 73 59 / 50 70 40 10 0

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: ARANSAS...BEE...CALHOUN...GOLIAD...JIM WELLS...
KLEBERG...LIVE OAK...NUECES...REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO...
VICTORIA.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
ARANSAS...BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT
O`CONNOR...COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

TB/78...AVIATION

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX

704 AM CDT MON MAR 19 2012

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION.

.AVIATION...SHOWERS HAVE MAINLY MOVED OUT OF THE AREA AS OF
12Z...ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS ARE STILL IN THE VICINITY OF
VICTORIA. EXPECT CIGS TO IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY...WITH LRD
EXPECTED TO GO SCT OR FEW IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY WITH A LLJ CONTINUING OVER THE AREA. TONIGHT WITH
A 40-50KT LLJ ACROSS THE AREA AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL
SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED. HAVE INCLUDED TSRA IN ALL
TAFS EXCEPT LRD WHERE CHANCES ARE A BIT LOWER. THESE SHOWERS AND
STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BRING VERY STRONG WIND GUSTS. THE
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE LAREDO AREA LATE IN THIS TAF
PERIOD...AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THE REST OF TUESDAY MORNING.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 433 AM CDT MON MAR 19 2012/

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 85 72 83 54 75 / 20 50 60 30 10
VICTORIA 81 70 74 53 72 / 40 70 80 40 10
LAREDO 94 68 83 53 81 / 20 40 20 10 10
ALICE 87 72 82 53 78 / 20 50 50 20 10
ROCKPORT 78 71 78 56 72 / 30 50 70 40 10
COTULLA 89 62 77 49 78 / 30 70 30 10 10
KINGSVILLE 87 71 83 52 77 / 20 50 50 30 10
NAVY CORPUS 79 71 81 57 73 / 20 50 70 40 10

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: ARANSAS...BEE...CALHOUN...GOLIAD...JIM
WELLS...KLEBERG...LIVE OAK...NUECES...REFUGIO...SAN
PATRICIO...VICTORIA.

PZ/83...SHORT TERM
GW/86...LONG TERM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX

433 AM CDT MON MAR 19 2012

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A COUPLE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. THE MOST
CONCENTRATED AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS HAS BEEN CLOSELY
ASSOCIATED WITH A VORT MAX PROGGED WELL IN THE RUC MODEL. THE VORT
MAX CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT PUSHES TO THE NORTHWEST AND AS
EXPECTED SHOWERS ARE WEAKENING AS WELL...WITH JUST A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKES REMAINING. THINK MOST OF TODAY WILL BE DRY ACROSS SOUTH
TEXAS WITH JUST SOME ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH
ADDITIONAL WEAK SHORT WAVES PROPAGATING AROUND MAIN TROUGH. MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE SIGNIFICANT CLEARING EVEN POSSIBLY IN WESTERN
CWA. THIS WOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES IN WEBB COUNTY TO INCREASE
QUITE A BIT...CURRENTLY FORECASTING HIGHS IN THE MID 90S...BUT
CAN`T DISCOUNT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME AREAS GETTING A COUPLE OF
DEGREES WARMER IF SKIES CLEAR. WITH LLJ NOT WEAKENING MUCH THROUGH
THE DAY TODAY SHOULD MIX DOWN SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 40MPH THIS
AFTERNOON SO HAVE ISSUED WIND ADVISORY FOR EASTERN HALF OF
FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...MAIN ISSUE THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE IS WHETHER TO PLACE POPS IN AFTER TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
GENERALLY KEEPING SIMILAR POPS FOR TUESDAY AS ADVERTISED IN PREVIOUS
PACKAGES. SPC HAS SLIGHT RISK ON BORDER OF AREA FOR DAY 2...AND WILL
GENERALLY NOT SWAY FROM THIS). MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING THAT...AFTER
THE MCS COMES ACROSS ON TUESDAY (NSSL AND NCEP WRF MODELS ARE
KEEPING BIG CONVECTION TO THE NORTH THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY AND
EXTRAPOLATION KEEPS THEM NORTH)...SOME DRYING OCCURS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON UP TO 850 MB THEN SOME WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE
700-300 MB LAYER COMES IN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT (DRYING FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY EVENING).
THIS IS A POTENT UPPER SYSTEM...AND MODELS FOR DAYS HAVE BEEN TOYING
WITH POSSIBLE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TUESDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE FACT THE
MODEL CONSENSUS IS SLOWING UPPER SYSTEM DOWN SOME...AND GUIDANCE IS
GOING NEARLY LIKELY ON THE RAINFALL (THINK THIS IS OVER-DONE)...HAVE
DECIDED TO INCLUDE POPS TUESDAY NIGHT MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF CWFA. COULD EVEN SEE SOME THUNDER OVER THE EXTREME EASTERN
AREAS/GULFMEX TUESDAY NIGHT. FARTHER WEST...SPRINKLES AT BEST. AFTER
TUESDAY NIGHT...THINK UPPER SYSTEM WILL BE FAR ENOUGH NORTH AND
SUFFICIENT DRYING OVER THE AREA TO END RAIN (GFS-MOS STILL HAS
CHANCE POPS EASTERN AREAS BUT WILL IGNORE THIS). MODELS ARE
RELATIVELY CONSISTENT UNTIL THE END OF THE WORK WEEK IN KEEPING A
WEAK UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA...THEN DIVERGE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH
THE GFS PUSHING THE RIDGE EAST AND MOVING A TROUGH TOWARD THE
WESTERN CWFA LATE SUNDAY. THE ECMWF HOWEVER KEEPS THE RIDGE OVER THE
AREA (BUT NOT BRINGING A BOUNDARY DOWN LIKE IT DID ON YESTERDAY`S
00Z RUN). FOR NOW...WILL KEEP THE FORECAST RAIN-FREE BUT BRING IN
THE MOISTURE A LITTLE FASTER THAN BEFORE AND INCREASE OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES SOME. OVERALL...TENDED TO GO MORE WITH THE WARMER
FORECAST NUMBERS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...THEN OVERALL DID A
CONSENSUS FORECAST BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS FOR
TEMPERATURES AND MOST OTHER PARAMETERS.

PZ/83...SHORT TERM
GW/86...LONG TERM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS FORT WORTH TX

1208 AM CDT MON MAR 19 2012

.AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS ARE DEVELOPING AND MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WILL
INITIALIZE ALL TAF SITES WITH BKN020. MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS MONDAY BEFORE LIFTING TO VFR HEIGHTS.
SOUTH WINDS NEAR 15-20KT ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND WILL INCREASE
TO 20-25KT MONDAY.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS TIMING OF CONVECTIVE EPISODES...WITH AT
LEAST 2 ROUNDS OF STORMS LOOKING LIKELY. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING
ON A ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVING INTO THE METROPLEX AFTER
15Z/10AM. THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING NOW DEVELOPING
IN WEST TEXAS. RUC FORECASTS SURFACE TROUGH/DRY LINE TO REACH
WESTERN TRACON BY 15Z WITH LINE OF STORMS HOLDING TOGETHER LONG
ENOUGH TO REACH METROPLEX TAF SITES SHORTLY THEREAFTER. WILL SHOW
PREVAILING TSRA FROM 15-19Z. THIS FIRST LINE OF CONVECTION SHOULD
NOT BLOW THROUGH AND SCOUR THE AIRMASS...AND WITH THE DRY LINE
HANGING BACK TO THE WEST ADDITIONAL SCATTERED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING HOURS. WILL SHOW VCTS
IN THIS PERIOD SINCE CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PICK A
SPECIFIC TIME PERIOD TO PREVAIL TSRA. PRIMARY UPPER LEVEL FORCING
DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT WHEN A SOLID LINE OF STORMS
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND SLOWLY ADVANCE
EASTWARD. THE LOCATION OF THIS LINE WILL PUT TAF SITES PRIMARILY
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX AND THEREFORE EXPECT
STEADY MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND OCCASIONAL THUNDER PREVAILING
LATE MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

TR.92

.UPDATE...
EXPANDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH WHOLE AREA THIS
EVENING DUE TO ONGOING CONVECTION. MADE ONLY COSMETIC CHANGES TO
REST OF THE GRIDS. 84

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 522 PM CDT SUN MAR 18 2012/
STRONG CAPPING INVERSION CENTERED AROUND 750 MB IS KEEPING NORTH
TX RELATIVELY QUIET THIS AFTERNOON WITH JUST A FEW SPRINKLES OR
LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST CWA. AN AREA OF
ENHANCE CU IS NOW DEVELOPING WEST OF ABILENE AND SAN ANGELO AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THIS REGION. INSOLATION HAS ALSO
PUSHED TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S AND INCREASED SURFACE-BASED
INSTABILITY...WHILE WEAKENING THE CAPPING INVERSION. A SLIGHT RISK
REMAINS WEST OF OUR CWA AND DO NOT EXPECT TOO MUCH ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS THROUGH THIS EVENING. NNE STORM MOTIONS AND EXPECTED CAP
SHOULD KEEP AREA MAINLY HAZARD FREE.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY DIGS AND CREEPS EAST OVER THE ROCKIES
MONDAY MORNING...THE CAPPING INVERSION WILL GRADUALLY ERODE
THROUGH MIDDAY AS A STRONGER LEAD SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM
THE WEST TX BIG BEND AND OVER NORTH TX BY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...A
SURFACE TROUGH WILL PUSH NEAR OR INTO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES AND ACT
AS AN ADDITIONAL TRIGGER FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY
MIDDAY AND AFTER. BULK SHEAR PROFILES AND INSTABILITY...ALONG WITH
THE FORCING SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SEVERE STORMS AS THE AREA WILL BE
UNDER A SLIGHT RISK THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE FIRST ROUND OF
HEAVIER RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN PARTS OF
THE CWA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
THE MAIN THREATS...THOUGH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER DEW PTS
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES COULD RESULT IN A BRIEF WINDOW FOR A
FEW TORNADOES PER BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW AND LOWER LCL VALUES.

THE NEXT AND MORE SIGNIFICANT ROUND OF HEAVIER RAINFALL OCCURS
WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ARRIVING JUST BEFORE SUNRISE TUESDAY
MORNING. WITH PLENTIFUL GULF AND PACIFIC MOISTURE AVAILABLE AND
NEARLY A NORTH-SOUTH AXIS OF FORCING...TRAINING OF HEAVIER
RAINFALL WITH THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED ACROSS AREAS EAST OF A
GAINESVILLE...FORT WORTH...MERIDIAN...LAMPASAS LINE. A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM MONDAY THROUGH MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY. IF
THIS SYSTEM SLOWS UP EVEN MORE THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...THE WATCH
AREA MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED BOTH WESTWARD AND IN TIME INTO
WEDNESDAY FOR THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES. THESE TRENDS WILL BE
MONITORED IN FUTURE FORECASTS. RIVER FLOODING ALONG THE
BRAZOS...TRINITY AND SULPHUR RIVER BASINS WILL LIKELY OCCUR AS
WELL BY EARLY TUESDAY.

AS THE UPPER LOW CREEPS SLOWLY ACROSS WEST TX TUESDAY NIGHT...THE
SOLUTIONS BECOME MORE DIVERGED AND CONFIDENCE WANES QUICKLY ON
RAINFALL CHANCES GOING INTO WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW FOLLOWED A
COMPROMISE WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND FAR EASTERN COUNTIES. COOL VERTICAL
PROFILES WITHIN THE UPPER LOW AND A PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT
SHOULD MAKE FOR RELATIVELY COOL TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S. CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWLY
NORTHWARD AWAY. HIGHS BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S WILL
LIKELY RETURN BY SATURDAY WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA WITH
NO RAINFALL EXPECTED. 05/

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 67 74 56 66 50 / 20 100 100 80 20
WACO, TX 65 76 55 66 51 / 20 100 100 70 10
PARIS, TX 65 74 60 65 52 / 20 100 100 100 30
DENTON, TX 65 74 54 65 47 / 30 100 90 80 10
MCKINNEY, TX 65 72 57 66 50 / 20 100 100 90 20
DALLAS, TX 67 75 56 66 52 / 20 100 100 80 20
TERRELL, TX 65 74 56 65 51 / 20 100 100 90 20
CORSICANA, TX 66 74 55 66 51 / 20 90 100 90 20
TEMPLE, TX 66 77 54 67 48 / 20 90 100 70 10
MINERAL WELLS, TX 64 78 52 68 44 / 50 90 80 70 10

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM CDT MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
FOR TXZ092>095-103>107-118>123-133>135-144>148-156>162-174-175.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

628 PM CDT TUE MAR 20 2012

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH FRIDAY
340 PM CDT TUE MAR 20 2012

MOST OF THE WORK TODAY CENTERED AROUND TRYING TO FORECAST THE
PROPER RAIN CHANCES...LOCATION AND TIMING THROUGH THURSDAY. THE
MAIN ISSUE IS WEAK FORCING WITH SOME INSTABILITY AROUND...AND
MODELS WANTING TO GENERATE PRECIPITATION FAIRLY LIBERALLY.

AT 19Z...A NORTHERN JET STREAM BRANCH SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS
PROGRESSED A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO CENTRAL MN AND IA...JUST
WEST OF I-35. THIS WILL BE A FOCAL POINT FOR EVENING RAINFALL.
MEANWHILE A SURFACE LOW IS SHIFTING NORTH THROUGH WRN MO WITH
STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW THROUGH IL AND ERN MO WITH 40KTS AT 850 MB
RIDING NORTHWARD INTO THE PROGRESSING FRONT IN MN. MOST OF THE
LOCAL AREA HAS BEEN UNDER RIDGE BUILDING TODAY AS THE STRONG
CLOSED LOW OVER TX IS SLOW TO MOVE. TEMPERATURES AGAIN HAVE
ROCKETED TO 80F IN SWRN WI WHERE FORCING IS MINIMAL AND SKIES ARE
MOSTLY SUNNY. 0-3KM MU CAPES ARE AROUND 400 J/KG IN SWRN WI AS
DEWPOINTS ARE WELL MIXED /AND LOWERED/ IN A 1-1.5 KM DEEP
BOUNDARY LAYER. THERMAL GRADIENT IS PRESENT IN THE LOWEST 300 MB
AGL WITH AN 8C 925MB CHANGE FROM KABR-KMPX IN MORNING RAOBS. ALSO
STARTING TO SEE A CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY FROM BLACK RIVER FALLS TO W
OF KLSE..TO NEAR KCCY.

HAVE BEEN DECREASING RAIN CHANCES ALL DAY TODAY AS THE FORCING IS
REALLY MINIMAL AS LOW-LEVEL WEAK RIDGING OCCURS. THIS HAS CLEARED
OUT ERN IA AND MO OF MOST CLOUD. MODEL GUIDANCE...INCLUDING HRRR
CONTINUES TO PROVIDE WET GUIDANCE IN THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA BUT
THE DETAILS ON THE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE HAVE BEEN HANDLED VERY
POORLY AND TOO FAR EAST...THUS NO PRECIPITATION. INDICATIONS
CONTINUE IN THE 20.12Z NAM/GFS AND LATEST 20.18Z RUC THAT THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BECOME ACTIVE TONIGHT NEAR I-35 WITH
MODERATE FRONTOGENESIS OVER THE FAR WRN FORECAST AREA. RUN-TO-RUN
TRENDS IN THE RUC HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH PLACEMENT AND EVENING
INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH THE SURFACE LOW
SHIFTING NORTH FROM MO AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT OVERNIGHT
TO CAUSE A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN.

BIG CHALLENGE IS HOW FAR WEST OR EAST WILL THIS BAND SET UP.
BELIEVE THE EAST EXTENT OF THE RAIN BAND WILL AFFECT THE WESTERN
FORECAST AREA. WITH FRONTAL ZONE ACTIVE AND INSTABILITY ALOFT
ABOVE THE ZONE...COULD SEE SHOWER ACTIVITY EXTEND EAST TO MISS
RIVER. THERE ARE SOME CONSISTENT SIGNALS THAT A SECOND SURGE OF
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND CONVERGENCE WILL MOVE INTO THE FRONT FROM
THE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT TO ENHANCE THE RAIN CHANCES A BIT FURTHER
EAST TOO. THIS IS LOW- LEVEL JET FORCED. MOST OF WI SHOULD REMAIN
DRY.

SEVERE CHANCES WOULD BE BEST IN WI WHERE CAPE IS BUILDING. BUT
THERE IS LITTLE FORCING IN THIS AREA...EXCEPT FOR DEVELOPING
CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY THAT WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED. ALSO...SHOULD
CONVECTION INITIATE AND FORM INTO A LINE SEGMENT OVER ERN
IA...THERE MAY BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SEVERE CONVECTION AS IT
MOVES INTO WI. OVERALL WIND SHEAR IS QUITE FAVORABLE TODAY...BUT
FORCING IS WEAK IN THE INSTABILITY AREA. WILL MONITOR THIS
EVENING.

THE ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT SHOULD LIFT NORTH WEDNESDAY DURING THE
MORNING AS THE FORCING DOES AS WELL. THINKING A VERY SIMILAR DAY
TO TODAY WITH SWRN WI POSSIBLY NEAR 80F AGAIN AND BUILDING CAPE.

CONSENSUS OF THE FORECAST GUIDANCE HAS THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT MOVING IN THURSDAY AS THE CLOSED LOW SHIFTS
NORTHEAST. WOULD THINK MOST AREAS WILL SEE ABOUT 0.25 INCHES
THURSDAY FROM THIS FRONT. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR INSTABILITY
GROWING AHEAD OF THE FRONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE
THREATS. BAND FREEZES IN ERN WI AS THE UPPER LOW HALTS ITS
NORTHEAST PROGRESSION.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
340 PM CDT TUE MAR 20 2012

CLOSED LOW WILL SHIFT IN AND AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY
MID-DAY...THEN HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDING KICKS IN....AGAIN.
MODEL CONSENSUS ON THE NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVING NE OF THE GREAT
LAKES IS BETTER THAN YESTERDAY WITH ABOUT A 2C SPREAD AT 850MB
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THUS...CONFIDENCE IS GROWING ON THOSE FORECASTS
IN THE 60-65F RANGE. GFS SUITE STILL MORE AGGRESSIVE ON WARMING FOR
MONDAY AND HAVE CHOSEN TO BE CONSERVATIVE THERE...WITH COOLER
20.12Z ECMWF. HAVE INTRODUCED PRECIPITATION CHANCES MONDAY AGAIN
AS THE RETURN FLOW IN THE DAKOTAS SHIFTS EAST TOWARD THE
AREA...LIKE IN THE MONTH OF MAY. THUS...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER
THE AREA WILL RETREAT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT BUT BE WORKED ON
SOMEWHAT FOR RAIN CHANCES. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY MAY NEED TO BE
INCREASED SHOULD COLD FRONTAL TIMING VIA STRONG SWRN U.S. TROUGH

.AVIATION...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
628 PM CDT TUE MAR 20 2012

VERY WEAK SURFACE LOW ALONG THE IOWA/MISSOURI BORDER NEAR KLWD IS
MOVING ALMOST DUE NORTH BUT IS FILLING AS IT DOES. SOME LIGHT RAIN
ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW IS TRYING TO SLIP EASTWARD
AS IT ADVANCES NORTH WITH THE SURFACE LOW. THE 20.18Z NAM ADVANCES
THE SURFACE LOW TO NEAR KONA THIS EVENING BUT PRIMARILY LIMITS THE
RAIN TO THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACK UNDER AN AREA
OF BETTER FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 1000-700 MB LAYER. HOWEVER...
CONFIDENCE IN HOW MUCH RAIN WILL ACTUALLY BE OCCURRING WITH THE
LOW ONCE IT REACHES THE AREA IS NOT HIGH AS THE NAM LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL NOT VERIFY WELL AT 00Z WITH MORE RAIN INDICATED THAT WHAT
WILL OCCUR UNDER THE FRONTOGENESIS. LOOKING AT THE 22.12Z HIRES
EAST ARW...IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL VERIFY BETTER AT 00Z AND
DISSIPATES MOST OF THE RAIN AS THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO FILL
AND WEAKEN THROUGH THE EVENING. THE 20.20Z RUN OF THE HRRR IS VERY
SIMILAR TO THE HIRES EAST ARW SO HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE RAIN FOR
KRST WITH MUCH OF THE NIGHT DRY. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT
LOOKS TO INCREASE INTO THE AREA AFTER 09Z. MOST OF THE MODELS SHOW
AN INCREASE IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ON THE NOSE OF THIS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT BUT MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN SECTIONS WHERE
SOME ISENTROPIC UP GLIDE ON THE ORDER OF 3 TO 5 UBAR/S SHOULD BE
OCCURRING. WITH THIS FORCING AGAIN WEST OF KLSE...CONTINUED THE
DRY FORECAST WHILE INTRODUCING VICINITY SHOWERS AT KRST STARTING
AT 09Z. THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND ISENTROPIC UP GLIDE LOOK TO
WEAKEN BY MID MORNING WITH THE MAIN FORCING FOCUSING WELL TO THE
SOUTH CLOSER TO THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW. EXPECTING MOST OF THE
WEDNESDAY TO BE DRY WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

.FIRE WEATHER...
340 PM CDT TUE MAR 20 2012

WHILE FUELS ARE STILL DRY AND READY TO BURN...WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL HOLD IN A MINIMAL THREAT REGIME AS THE WEAK CONTINUES.
WEDNESDAY WILL PROVIDE MIN RH VALUES NEAR 50 PERCENT OVER CENTRAL
WI WHICH IS NOT OVERLY FAVORABLE FOR SPREADING FIRE. HOWEVER...A
WILDFIRE WAS REPORTED IN GREEN LAKE COUNTY TODAY IN CENTRAL
WI...AND THIS AREA IS THE MOST FAVORABLE FOR FIRE ACTIVITY
WEDNESDAY. A WETTING RAIN IS EXPECTED THURSDAY TO HELP REDUCE THE
FUEL VOLATILITY.

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
344 PM CDT TUE MAR 20 2012

WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.

SHORT TERM...BAUMGARDT
LONG TERM...BAUMGARDT
AVIATION...04
FIRE WEATHER...BAUMGARDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

1231 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
339 AM CDT MON MAR 19 2012

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND HOW WARM TO
GO WITH TEMPERATURES.

CURRENTLY AS OF 08Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED DEEP TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND STRONG RIDGING FROM
THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. WITHIN
THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...IT IS TOUGH TO FIND
ANY SHORTWAVES OF NOTE ON WATER VAPOR. THIS IS PRIMARILY DUE TO
PLENTIFUL PACIFIC MOISTURE AND BLOW-OFFS FROM EVENING CONVECTION
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS VERY FEW AS WELL. AHEAD
OF THE DEEP TROUGH...A SOUTHWEST 40-60 KT 850MB JET EXISTS OVER THE
PLAINS INTO THE FORECAST AREA...HELPING TO MAINTAIN A CONTINUOUS
FEED OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ON 00Z SOUNDINGS REFLECT THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT...
RANGING FROM 1-1.3 INCHES FROM GRB TO OAX...DVN...TOP AND FWD. THESE
ARE 250-310 PERCENT ABOVE NORMAL. DESPITE ALL OF THIS MOISTURE...
THERE IS VERY LITTLE OCCURRING ON REGIONAL RADARS...AND AGAIN THIS
MIGHT BE DUE TO LACK OF NOTABLE SHORTWAVE FEATURES. IN
ADDITION...ALTHOUGH THE ENVIRONMENT HAS A LOT OF MOISTURE WITH
RESPECT TO NORMAL...00Z SOUNDINGS FROM OAX...DVN AND MPX WERE
ACTUALLY FAIRLY DRY OUTSIDE OF THE 800MB MOISTURE JUST BELOW THE
CAP. NEAREST PRECIPITATION ON RADAR IS IN MISSOURI AND WESTERN
KANSAS. THE BREEZY SOUTHERLY FLOW...AHEAD OF A 982MB LOW IN EASTERN
MONTANA...HAS HELPED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES UP IN THE 60S AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...ALL SHOWING THE CURRENT WESTERN TROUGH
MOVING INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY...THEN SPLITTING APART.
THE MAIN TREND IS THAT THE SOUTHERN END WHICH CUTS OFF INTO AN UPPER
LOW IS FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THIS RESULTS IN RIDGING BUILDING BACK WESTWARD INTO THE FORECAST
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DESPITE THE GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE UPPER
PATTERN...DETAILS ARE MURKY AT BEST...ESPECIALLY WHEN IT COMES TO
PRECIPITATION. THE REASONS ARE TWO FOLD: 1. HAVING THE ABNORMALLY
HIGH MOISTURE STREAM EXPECTED TO STAY PUT OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...AND 2. ANY WEAK SHORTWAVE FORCING
COULD ACT ON THE MOISTURE STREAM AND CAUSE PRECIPITATION TO OCCUR.
THE DAILY DISCUSSIONS BELOW REPRESENT THE BEST ATTEMPT TO FIGURE OUT
THE DETAILS.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...THERE ARE INDICATIONS BY THE 19.00Z
NAM/GFS/REGIONAL CANADIAN OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE COMING OUT OF MISSOURI
AND LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE NAM AND
GFS BOTH PRODUCE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SHORTWAVE...LIKELY
OCCURRING IN THE 15-21Z TIME PERIOD...WHEREAS THE REGIONAL CANADIAN
ONLY PRODUCES PRECIPITATION NEAR GRANT COUNTY. THE 19.03-19.05Z HRRR
RUNS HAVE LOOKED A LOT LIKE THE REGIONAL CANADIAN AS WELL...GIVING A
LITTLE MORE CONFIDENCE TOWARDS A DRIER SOLUTION. GIVEN THE FACT THAT
IT IS TOUGH TO FIND ANY NOTABLE SHORTWAVE IN WATER VAPOR AND THE
DRIER 00Z SOUNDING LOOK...HAVE LOWERED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY
TO MOSTLY 20-40 PERCENT. DOES SEEM THAT THE AFTERNOON WOULD HAVE
BETTER POTENTIAL GIVEN THAT MUCAPE VALUES COULD RANGE FROM 500-1500
J/G...SO THE 40 PERCENT EXIST THEN. STILL...IT IS HARD TO FIND A
TRUE TRIGGER IN THE AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE IF ANY HEIGHT FALLS OR
SHORTWAVE COMING ACROSS. NOTE THAT WHERE THE HIGHEST CAPE
EXISTS...0-6/0-3KM SHEAR IS LESS THAN 25 KT...SUGGESTING STORM
ORGANIZATION AND SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED. ANOTHER ROUND
OF PRECIPITATION WHICH LOOKS MORE CERTAIN WILL MOVE INTO AREAS
WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THIS EVENING. THIS PRECIPITATION IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEPER WARM CONVEYOR BELT SURGE COMING OUT OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. HOWEVER...A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT AND HOW MUCH OF IT STAYS
INTACT. THE REASON FOR THIS UNCERTAINTY IS THAT IT APPEARS THE
WARM CONVEYOR MAY SPLIT APART AS IT PUSHES EAST INTO THE UPPER
RIDGING...LIKE THE SPLIT OCCURRING WITH THE WESTERN UPPER TROUGH.
THEREFORE FOR TONIGHT BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION...IN THE
60-70 RANGE...WILL STAY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE TREND FOR THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH TO SPLIT SOONER...THE OVERALL FORECAST FOR THIS TIME PERIOD
LOOKS DRIER...ESPECIALLY FOR WISCONSIN. PRECIPITATION FORECASTS THAT
WERE MOSTLY OVER THE AREA HAVE NOW SHIFTED WEST TO HANDLE THE
FARTHER WEST UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT. AS SUCH...CHANCES
HAVE BEEN REDUCED. REGARDING A FEW DETAILS...TUESDAY MORNING COULD
BE QUIET AS DEPICTED BY THE REGIONAL CANADIAN AND GFS...RESULTING
FROM THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT FALLING APART. THIS IS ONLY TEMPORARY
BECAUSE IN THE AFTERNOON A NEW SURGE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER
SHOULD COME UP THROUGH THE WEST HALF OF IOWA AND POSSIBLY ENTER
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA. VERY GOOD AGREEMENT EXISTS ON THIS...RESULTING
FROM A SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT OF THE UPPER TROUGH. FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT...THIS SURGE OF PRECIPITATION AGAIN LOOKS TO STAY MORE TO OUR
WEST AND NORTHWEST...AGREED TOO WITH THE NEW 19.00Z ECMWF. IT IS
CONCEIVABLE NOW THAT WEDNESDAY ENDS UP DRY AS UPPER LEVEL AND
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WANES...BUT FOR NOW HAVE MAINTAINED SOME LOW
CHANCES PER CONTINUITY AND STILL SOME WEAK FORCING INDICATIONS. THAT
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING MAY TRY TO STRENGTHEN BACK UP WEDNESDAY NIGHT
IF THE UPPER LOW KICKS OUT AS PROGGED. THUS HIGHER CHANCES ARE
INDICATED THEN.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM...GIVEN THE
PERIODIC ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION...HIGHS ARE DIFFICULT TO FORECAST.
850MB TEMPS HOLD BETWEEN 10-12C AND THE TRUE SURFACE COLD FRONT...
WHICH LOOKS LIKE IT ENDS UP FALLING APART...DOES NOT MOVE INTO THE
AREA UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IF ANY SUN OCCURS...TEMPERATURES
COULD EASILY JUMP WELL INTO THE 70S AND POSSIBLY LOW 80S. FOR NOW
STAYED WITH A BLEND OF GUIDANCE WHICH DID CAUSE AN INCREASE IN
HIGHS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...RESULTING TOO FROM THE UPPER
TROUGH SLOWING DOWN. LOWS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN IN THE 50S TO LOW
60S...WARMEST TONIGHT. SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR POSSIBLE
RECORDS.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
339 AM CDT MON MAR 19 2012

OVERALL MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT EXISTS TODAY AMONGST THE 19.00Z
GUIDANCE WITH THE HANDLING OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN...INCLUDING
THE UPPER LOW. IF ANYTHING...THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED COMPLETELY
TOWARDS PAST AND CURRENT GFS RUNS...WHICH SUGGESTS A CONTINUATION
OF ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THIS ALSO MATCHES CFS
FORECASTS WHICH SUGGESTS THE SAME FOR THE MARCH 24TH THROUGH 28TH
PERIOD.

MAIN FOCUS FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS ON THE UPPER LOW OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GOOD AGREEMENT EXISTS THAT IT
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI BY FRIDAY IN RESPONSE TO
DIGGING TROUGHING OFF THE U.S. WEST COAST. A WARM CONVEYOR BELT OF
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO FORM AHEAD OF THIS LOW AND IMPACT THE AREA
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLY FRIDAY AS WELL IF THE GFS IS
CORRECT. SIMILAR TO THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES ARE WELL ABOVE NORMAL...300 TO 350 PERCENT OR SO. RAISED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO 40-50 AND FURTHER INCREASES MAY BE
NECESSARY. SOME SHOWERS COULD STILL PERSIST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW SCOOTS OFF TO THE EAST...AND WHILE THERE
IS A RELATIVE COOL POOL OF AIR ALOFT. ANTICIPATING DRY CONDITIONS
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH UPPER RIDGING BUILDING
OVER THE PLAINS IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LOW...AS WELL AS SURFACE
RIDGING BUILDING IN AT THE SURFACE.

BACK TO TEMPERATURES...DESPITE THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LOW FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND ITS ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION...BOTH MEX AND
19.00Z ECMWF 2 METER GRID GUIDANCE HAVE REALLY WARMED UP THIS TIME
PERIOD. IN FACT...THE ECMWF SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR RECORD HIGHS ON
THURSDAY. GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE ECMWF DOES CONSIDER PRECIPITATION
IMPACTS ON TEMPERATURES...HAVE RAISED TEMPERATURES SOME OVER THE
BLEND OF GUIDANCE. FURTHER INCREASES MAY BE NECESSARY. SHOULD SEE
SOMEWHAT OF A COOL DOWN FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT 850MB TEMPS ONLY DROP
TO 4-6C AT MOST. THIS WILL KEEP READINGS ABOVE NORMAL.

.AVIATION...THIS AFTERNOON THRU TUESDAY
1231 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012

FCST CONFIDENCE FOR -SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON THRU TUE ON THE LOW
SIDE. DEEP SOUTHERLY AND MOIST FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE AREA THRU
TUE. HOWEVER MODELS DIFFER ON THE SUBTLE TRIGGER/FORCING MECHANISMS
IN THIS MOIST SOUTH FLOW...WITH DIFFERENT OUTCOMES FOR SHRA/TSRA
TIMING AND COVERAGE THE NEXT 24-36HRS. GENERAL CONSENSUS IS FOR
PERIODIC CONVECTION WITH MAINLY SCT COVERAGE TO MOVE ACROSS THE FCST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON THRU TUE. FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...
STRONGER OF WHAT FORCING THERE IS APPEARS TO BE ALONG/EAST OF THE MS
RIVER AND INCLUDED MORE OF A SHRA/CB MENTION AT KLSE. THEN APPEARS
THERE WILL BE A LULL FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH
AN INCREASE OF FORCING/LIFT AS THE SFC-MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVE A
BIT CLOSER TO THE AREA. CONTINUED A PERIOD OF -SHRA AT THE TAF SITES
TONIGHT...MORE-SO AT KRST CLOSER TO THE TROUGH AXIS. ALSO INCLUDED
CB MENTION IN THE 01-08Z TIME FRAME WITH SOME INSTABILITY OVER THE
AREA...THEN JUST -SHRA LATER TONIGHT WITH MINIMAL INSTABILITY. WITH
THE PERIODIC SCT -SHRA THIS AFTERNOON INTO TUE...CIGS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR FOR LATER TONIGHT INTO TUE. GRADIENT REMAINS
TIGHT FOR BRISK SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...THEN RELAXES
FOR TONIGHT/TUE WITH APPROACH OF THE SFC TROUGH/FRONT.

.CLIMATE...THIS WEEK
339 AM CDT MON MAR 18 2012

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO GRADUALLY COOL THIS WEEK WITH PERIODS OF
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED EACH DAY. HOWEVER...THIS PROCESS IS GOING TO
BE VERY SLOW AS THE UNSEASONABLY WARM AIRMASS NEVER GETS FULLY
SHUNTED EAST OF HERE UNTIL MAYBE THIS WEEKEND ACCORDING TO LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE. THEREFORE...POTENTIAL EXISTS EACH DAY FOR RECORD
HIGHS AND MORE LIKELY RECORD HIGH MINIMUMS. CURRENT FORECAST PLAYS
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE CONSERVATIVELY. IF MORE SUN OCCURS THAN
FORECAST FOR TODAY...TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY...RECORDS HIGHS ARE MORE
LIKELY TO BE BROKEN. WEDNESDAY MAY BE THE TOUGHEST DAY TO BREAK
RECORD HIGHS WITH MOST LOCATIONS HAVING RECORDS BETWEEN 75 TO
80...EXCEPT ROCHESTER AND MEDFORD WHICH ARE AT 70.

FOR A LIST OF WHAT HAS OCCURRED REGARDING RECORDS THUS FAR AS WELL
AS THOSE THAT COULD FALL IN THE DAYS TO COME...PLEASE SEE THE TOP
NEWS STORY ON OUR WEBSITE ON THE UNSEASONABLY WARM MARCH.

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
339 AM CDT MON MAR 19 2012

WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.

SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...DAS
CLIMATE......AJ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GREEN BAY WI

1220 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW AN AMPLIFIED
UPPER PATTERN ACROSS THE CONTINENT EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH A LARGE
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST AND SUBTROPICAL RIDGING
CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. A LARGE PLUME OF MOISTURE IS
HEADING NORTHEAST OVER THE GREAT PLAINS THOUGH PRECIP ECHOES ARE
WIDELY SCATTERED OVER MISSOURI AND KANSAS. ONE SHORTWAVE OF NOTE IS
EMBEDDED IN THE SW TROPICAL FLOW OVER KANSAS...BUT IS FAIRLY
INACTIVE AT THE MOMENT. PLENTY OF CAPPING IN PLACE AS DEPICTED ON
00Z RAOBS OVER THE REGION. CLOSER TO HOME...AREA OF 6-7KFT CU HAS
BEEN EXPANDING OVER FAR NE WISCONSIN AND THE EASTERN UPPER
PENINSULA. AS MOISTURE STREAMS INTO THE REGION FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...PRECIP CHANCES ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN OVER THE NEXT
36 HOURS.

TODAY...LARGE TROUGH OVER THE WEST WILL SLOWLY SLIDE ACROSS THE
ROCKIES WHILE MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES. SLUG OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL LIFT
NORTH INTO WISCONSIN LATE IN THE MORNING AND THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...WITH PWATS CLIMBING TO GREATER THAN 1.25 INCHES...WHICH
IS NEAR THE HIGHEST ON RECORD FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH. AS THE COLUMN
MOISTENS...MODELS PROJECT THE STRONG CAP IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
PARTIALLY ERODES...THOUGH THE NAM COMPLETELY WIPES IT OUT. BASED ON
UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS...DO NOT THINK THIS IS REASONABLE.
INSTEAD...WILL GO MORE WITH THE GFS IDEA OF KEEPING A WEAKENED CAP
AROUND. BUT EVEN WITH A WEAKENED CAP...MODIFIED PROGGED SOUNDINGS
OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN USING A 74/58 PARCEL YIELDS ABOUT 900 J/KG OF
ML CAPE AND NO CIN. WILL HAVE TO GET TO THE MIDDLE 70S TO REACH THE
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE TO GET PAST THE CAP THIS AFTERNOON. LACK OF
UPSTREAM ECHOES AND TRIGGERS LEADS ME TO GO DRY ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA THROUGH THE MORNING. IMPULSE OVER KANSAS SHOULD APPROACH THE
REGION IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH COULD INTERACT WITH DAYTIME
INSTABILITY TO CREATE SCT SHOWERS AND TSTORMS. STILL NOT THINKING
ANYTHING SEVERE TODAY...BUT SOME OF THE STRONGEST STORMS COULD
PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS. WILL HAVE MORE CLOUD
COVER AND MOISTURE AROUND THAN YESTERDAY...THOUGH LOOK TO BE OFF TO
A WARMER START THAN YESTERDAY TOO. WILL GO WITH TEMPS A DEGREE OR
TWO COOLER.

TONIGHT...THE AIRMASS CHANGES VERY LITTLE AS THE DEEP TROUGH OVER
THE WESTERN HARDLY MOVES TO THE EAST. AS MOIST AS THE COLUMN
APPEARS...WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH OF A FEATURE OR SHORTWAVE IMPULSE TO
TRIGGER SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTORMS. WILL KEEP A MENTION OVER THE
WESTERN 2/3RDS OF THE FORECAST AREA. SHOULD SEE A WARMER AND MORE
MUGGY NIGHT...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AWAY
FROM LAKE MICHIGAN.

TUESDAY...SOUTHERN PIECE OF THE WESTERN TROUGH CUTS OFF OVER WESTERN
TEXAS WHILE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRAVELS NORTH OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. COLD FRONT ATTACHED TO THE LOW WILL SUBTLY SHIFT EAST TO
THE MN/WI BORDER BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. AIRMASS CHANGES VERY
LITTLE...BUT PROGGED SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME DRYING IN THE MID-LEVELS
THAT LEADS TO SLIGHTLY LESS INSTABILITY THAN PROGGED FOR TODAY.
THAT WONT LEAD TO A BIG CHANGE (IF ANY) IN THE FORECAST THOUGH AND
WILL KEEP POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN 2/3RDS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
HIGHS PERHAPS A FEW DEGREES COOLER OVER NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN DUE
TO CLOUD COVER AND POTENTIAL PRECIP...THOUGH LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPS
FARTHER EAST.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THRU SUNDAY. MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE
TEMPS AND PRECIP CHANCES.

HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN WHICH HAS DOMINATED FOR THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS WITH A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND RIDGING OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. WILL SLOWLY TRANSITION TO MORE OF A SPLIT FLOW AS CUT
OFF UPPER LOW SITS AND SPINS IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MORE OF A
ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.S. AND SOUTHERN CANADA.
MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN TO STALL THE UPPER LOW WELL TO OUR
SW...KEEPING WARMER TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA LONGER...AND HOLDING OFF
BEST PRECIP CHANCES UNTIL LATER THIS WEEK.

PINNING DOWN BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE VERY CHALLENGING AS
MODELS HAVE NOT REMAINED CONSISTENT ENOUGH TO HAVE CONFIDENCE IN
ANY ONE SOLUTION. DUE TO THE MUCH SLOWER EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF
THE UPPER LOW AS ADVERTISED BY THE LAST COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS...
HAVE MADE SOME SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE POPS AND CLOUDS GRIDS
FOR MID-WEEK. FIRST CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL COME TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY AS FRONT CROSSES INTO THE STATE. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL GET. DECIDED TO PULL POPS FOR
ALL BUT FAR NORTH-CENTRAL WI TUESDAY NIGHT...AND CHOPPED WEDNESDAY
POPS TO CHANCE ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WI AND SLIGHTS
OVER THE EAST...FAVORING A SLOWER SOLUTION...PLUS THE BEST FORCING
WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO A UPPER JET NORTH OF THE REGION. REDUCED
CLOUDS MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN WI AS WELL. MODELS HAVE HELD MOST OF
THE ACTIVITY WITH THIS SYSTEM NW OF THE CWA...SO WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF WE MISS OUT ON THIS SYSTEM COMPLETELY IN THE SE...AND
WILL ONLY KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO COVER ANY ISOLATED
ACTIVITY OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE PERSISTENT MOIST SOUTH
FLOW. HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR LATE IN THE WEEK AS MODELS NOW SHOW
THE UPPER LOW WORKING INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES...BUT
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AS HOW QUICKLY THE UPPER LOW WILL TOWARD
THE AREA. WILL CONFINE THUNDER MENTION FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS...
MAINLY THE AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS NOT VERY
IMPRESSIVE WITH CLOUD COVER REDUCING INSTABILITY AND LAPSE RATES
NOT TOO STEEP.

THE RECORD BREAKING...OR NEAR RECORD BREAKING...WARMTH LOOKS TO
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NOW...WITH 850/925MB TEMPS STILL
SUPPORTIVE OF HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL
WI. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ALOFT AND MORE CLOUDS EXPECTED AS YOU
WORK TOWARD NW AND NORTH-CENTRAL WI...AS THE FRONT SAGS ACROSS THE
STATE...SO EXPECT COOLER TEMPS THERE. THICKER CLOUD COVER AND/OR
THE FRONT SAGGING FARTHER SOUTH COULD KEEPS TEMPS COOLER ACROSS
THE AREA...HOWEVER FAVOR THE WARMER TEMPS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WITH NO COLD AIR IN SIGHT
FOR THE AREA. EVEN AS UPPER LOW COMES CLOSER...IT SEEMS TO LOSE
ITS SOMEWHAT CHILLY CORE...SO WILL BUMP UP TEMPS A LITTLE LATE IN
THE WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...A BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WL CONT
TO MOVE N-NE INTO NE WI THIS AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES NE
ACROSS IL. CIGS HAVE GENERALLY REMAINED AT VFR LEVELS AND EXPECT
THIS TO PERSIST THRU THE AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
OVER MOST OF THE REGION TNGT...ALTHO SOME PATCHY FOG MAY ONCE
AGAIN DEVELOP AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY WHERE THE RAINS FELL TODAY.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FCST FOR TUE AS WELL WITH A CHC OF ADDITIONAL
SHWRS PRIMARILY OVER THE RHI...AUW AND CWA TAF SITES.

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

645 AM CDT MON MAR 19 2012

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
339 AM CDT MON MAR 19 2012

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND HOW WARM TO
GO WITH TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
339 AM CDT MON MAR 19 2012

.AVIATION...TODAY AND TONIGHT
645 AM CDT MON MAR 19 2012

FAIRLY COMPLICATED FORECAST SETUP TODAY AND TONIGHT. CURRENTLY...
THE AREA IS ENTRENCHED IN MOIST/SOUTHERLY AIRLFOW AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT IN PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS IS SENDING VFR CLOUDS INTO
THE REGION WITH RADAR FAIRLY QUIET AT THE MOMENT. CLOUDS WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE TODAY AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SPREAD INTO THE
AREA. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING INSTABILITY INCREASING AS WELL FOR
SCATTERED SHRA/ISOLATED THUNDER. CLOUD BASES EXPECTED TO REMAIN
VFR. DUE TO LACK OF A GOOD TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION AND THE LIMITED
INSTABILITY...KEPT VCSH/CB IN THE KLSE/KRST TAF SITES FROM 18Z-
23Z. FOR TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO WESTERN MN/IA. THIS
WILL SERVE TO FOCUS BETTER PLUME OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
LIKELIHOOD OF SHRA/TS INTO THE AREA. FELT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE SHRA IN TAFS AFTER 06Z BASED ON THIS SIGNAL. LOOKING AT
CIGS/VIS TO SLIP INTO MVFR RANGE AT KRST AFTER 06Z WHILE KLSE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR. OTHERWISE...BREEZY SOUTH WINDS WILL
BE SEEN AGAIN TODAY WITH GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 35KT RANGE.

.CLIMATE...THIS WEEK
339 AM CDT MON MAR 18 2012

FOR A LIST OF WHAT HAS OCCURRED REGARDING RECORDS THUS FAR AS WELL
AS THOSE THAT COULD FALL IN THE DAYS TO COME...PLEASE SEE THE TOP
NEWS STORY ON OUR WEBSITE ON THE UNSEASONABLY WARM MARCH.

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
339 AM CDT MON MAR 19 2012

WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.

SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...DAS
CLIMATE......AJ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GREEN BAY WI

612 AM CDT MON MAR 19 2012

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THRU SUNDAY. MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE
TEMPS AND PRECIP CHANCES.

.AVIATION...A LARGE PLUME OF MOISTURE WILL SURGE NE OUT OF THE
PLAINS AND ACROSS THE STATE TODAY. THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO NW
ILLINOIS WOULD REACH THE SOUTHERN FOX VALLEY LATE THIS MORNING...BUT
WILL NOT EXPLICITLY ADD TO TAFS SINCE ITS STILL A LONG WAYS OUT.
SKY CONDITIONS WILL BE BKN THOUGH VFR FROM ABOUT MID-MORNING
ONWARD. AS THIS MOISTURE ARRIVES...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE REST OF THE
TAF PERIOD. BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP WILL BE OVER CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...BUT UNCERTAINTY ABOUT COVERAGE MAKES GOING VCSH ABOUT
THE BEST WE CAN DO AT THIS POINT.

MPC
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

339 AM CDT MON MAR 19 2012

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
339 AM CDT MON MAR 19 2012

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND HOW WARM TO
GO WITH TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
339 AM CDT MON MAR 19 2012

.AVIATION...
1100 PM CDT SUN MAR 18 2012

LOOK FOR MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP IN REGION OF HIGH LOW LEVEL SATURATION
AGAIN TONIGHT...ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF MN/IA. IT SHOULD STAY
JUST WEST OF KRST...LIKE IT DID THIS MORNING AND THE PREVIOUS
MORNING. STILL...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...WITH LOWERING
CIGS...TOWARD 12Z AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES NORTHEAST
OUT OF THE PLAINS. THE SHORTWAVE WILL LIKELY BRING SOME -SHRA WITH
IT ALSO...WITH THE BETTER CHANCES LOOKING TO BE BETWEEN 15-21Z.
MLCAPES NEAR 1000 J/KG...BUT ITS PRETTY SKINNY CAPE...NOT FAVORABLE
FOR STRONGER STORMS. SOME LIGHTNING COULD BE POSSIBLE. WILL STICK
WITH CB MENTION TO COVER THIS RISK FOR NOW.

AS THE SHORTWAVE EXITS LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON...COULD SEE SOME
IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS...ALTHOUGH ANOTHER LOWERING COULD OCCUR WITH
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SLATED TO MOVE NORTH ACROSS MN MONDAY EVENING. THE
SKY FORECAST WILL REMAIN DIFFICULT WITH THE UNSEASONABLY MOIST
AIRMASS PERSISTING.

MORE -SHRA/TS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT MONDAY...WITH CHANCES THEN
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. CHALLENGING FORECAST TRYING TO HIGHLIGHT
THE PERIODS WHEN PCPN WILL BE MORE LIKELY...AS THE MOIST AIR MASS
WILL ALLOW NEARLY ANY FOCUSING MECHANISM TO PRODUCE SOME -SHRA.

WINDS WILL STAY HIGH WITH AFTERNOON MIXING LEADING TO 30 TO 35 KT
GUSTS AT KRST...A BIT LESS AT KLSE.

.CLIMATE...THIS WEEK
339 AM CDT MON MAR 18 2012

FOR A LIST OF WHAT HAS OCCURRED REGARDING RECORDS THUS FAR AS WELL
AS THOSE THAT COULD FALL IN THE DAYS TO COME...PLEASE SEE THE TOP
NEWS STORY ON OUR WEBSITE ON THE UNSEASONABLY WARM MARCH.

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
339 AM CDT MON MAR 19 2012

WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.

SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION.....RIECK
CLIMATE......AJ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GREEN BAY WI

328 AM CDT MON MAR 19 2012

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THRU SUNDAY. MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE
TEMPS AND PRECIP CHANCES.

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. LATER
MONDAY A VFR CIG WILL DEVELOP AS SCATTERED SHOWERS WORK INTO THE
STATE.

TDH
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$
MPC/BERSCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ

112 AM EDT WED MAR 21 2012

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS EXPANDED INTO THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHERN
NEW JERSEY...AS WELL AS DELAWARE. THE EXPANSION OF THE STRATUS IS
COMPLETE IN THESE AREAS. AS WAS THE CASE THIS TIME TUESDAY...THE
DENSE FOG IS FOLLOWING IN ABOUT 90 MINUTES AFTER THE ARRIVAL OF
THE STRATUS.

FOR NOW...THE PHILADELPHIA METRO AREA WAS LEFT OUT OF THE
ADVISORY...BUT IF THE TEND CONTINUES...THESE AREAS MAY BE PLACED
IN A DENSE FOG ADVISORY BEFORE 330 AM.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOOKS LIKE WEDNESDAY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY, WITH THE FOG
AND LOW CLOUDS GRADUALLY GIVING WAY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL ACTUALLY BE BUILDING INTO
A BERMUDA TYPE HIGH. LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH LATE IN THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL, ONCE AGAIN,
CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S AND 70S, WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS
ALONG COASTAL SECTIONS.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TEMPS: CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THIS PERIOD THOUGH THE
EXCESSIVE 15 TO 25 DEGREE CALENDER DAY ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH OF THIS
WEEK WILL BE TEMPORARILY SUBDUED TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
LATER THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...NCEP FAIR WX GUIDANCE ACCEPTED AS HIGH PRESSURE
APPROACHES WITH A DECENT BURST OF NLY FLOW CAA...STILL A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL BUT NOT NEARLY THE RECENT EXTREMES.

.AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

IFR CONDITIONS HAVE OVERSPREAD THE AREA AGAIN EARLY THIS MORNING...
AS MOISTURE SPREADS OUT WESTWARD UNDER THE LOW INVERSION IN PLACE.
LIFR CONDITIONS ARE FOLLOWING IN CLOSE BEHIND...AND MOST PLACES
(OUTSIDE OF KRDG AND KABE) ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO LIFR IN FOG AFTER
0800 UTC...AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO LAST UNTIL ABOUT 1400 UTC.

THE DENSE FOG FOR KPHL AND OTHER METRO AIRPORTS IS NOT AS CLEAR CUT
AS IT WAS THIS TIME TUESDAY MORNING. THE IFR STRATUS IS IN...BUT IS
IT UNCLEAR IF ALL TERMINALS OUTSIDE OF KABE AND KRDG WILL GO LIFR.
THE FORECAST WILL BE FOR THIS TO OCCUR...AS THE LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW
IS STILL PRESENT. HOWEVER..THE FORECAST FOR THE KPHL METRO AIRPORTS
COULD END UP BEING A BIT PESSIMISTIC.

AFTER THE BREAKUP OF THE LIFR CONDITIONS AROUND 1400 UTC...THE
TRANSITION FROM IFR TO MVFR TO MVFR SHOULD OCCUR BY 1700 UTC AT ALL
LOCATIONS. AFTER THIS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THOUGH SUNSET.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
DELAWARE AND NORTHEAST MARYLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT THE
THREAT WAS NOT INCLUDED AT THE TERMINAL LOCATIONS.

AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST TONIGHT...THE
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD LIFR CONDITIONS IN FOG AND STRATUS APPEAR
TO BE LESS THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS. THE STRATUS PROBABLY AFFECTS KACY
AND KMIV BEFORE 0400 UTC THURSDAY. AFTER THAT...IT IS STILL NOT
CLEAR JUST HOW FAR WEST THE STRATUS WILL GET. THIS POTENTIAL WILL BE
ADDRESSED IN THE 1200 UTC TERMINAL FORECASTS.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...ANY MORNING IFR/LIFR GIVES WAY TO VFR CONDS AND WIND
TRENDING SW OR W IN THE AFTN G10-15 KTS.

THIS WEEKEND...MVFR/IFR CONDS DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY IN SHOWERY RAINS WITH E FLOW SAT AND GUSTY N-NE FLOW 15 TO
25 KTS SUNDAY. SMALL CHC OF THUNDER S OF PHL.

OUTLOOK...
NO HEADLINES ATTM FORESEEN THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. LIGHT WINDS...
TENDING TO BE MAINLY SOUTH OR SE WITH A CFP OF SHIFTING WIND FRIDAY.

A STRONG PROBABILITY FOR STRONG SCA CONDITIONS LATE SATURDAY OR
MORE LIKELY SUNDAY IN STRENGTHENING NE FLOW SHIFTING N AND ATLC
SEAS BUILDING TO 6-8 FT.

.CLIMATE...
RECORD MAXS NOT ALL OF THESE WILL BE AT RISK OF EXCEEDENCE.

3/22 3/23

FOR THE THE FIRST 19 DAYS... DAILY MEAN TEMPS SO FAR ARE

KABE PLUS 10.7F
KACY PLUS 9.1F
KGED PLUS 9.2F
KPHL PLUS 8.9F
KRDG PLUS 10.2F
KTTN PLUS 11.0F
KILG PLUS 8.8F
KMPO PLUS 12.0F

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ012>027.
DE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...GIGI/HAYES
SHORT TERM...RPW
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...DRAG/HAYES
MARINE...DRAG/RPW
CLIMATE...DRAG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ

1206 AM EDT WED MAR 21 2012

FOR NOW...THE PHILADELPHIA METRO AREA WAS LEFT OUT OF THE
ADVISORY...BUT IF THE TEND CONTINUES...THESE AREAS MAY BE PLACED
IN A DENSE FOG ADVISORY BEFORE 330 AM.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
LOOKS LIKE WEDNESDAY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY, WITH THE FOG
AND LOW CLOUDS GRADUALLY GIVING WAY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL ACTUALLY BE BUILDING INTO
A BERMUDA TYPE HIGH. LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH LATE IN THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL, ONCE AGAIN,
CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S AND 70S, WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS
ALONG COASTAL SECTIONS.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TEMPS: CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THIS PERIOD THOUGH THE EXCESSIVE
15 TO 25 DEGREE CALENDER DAY ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH OF THIS WEEK WILL
BE TEMPORARILY SUBDUED TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL LATER THIS WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...NCEP FAIR WX GUIDANCE ACCEPTED AS HIGH PRESSURE
APPROACHES WITH A DECENT BURST OF NLY FLOW CAA...STILL A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL BUT NOT NEARLY THE RECENT EXTREMES.

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AT LEAST PATCHY IFR/LIFR STRATUS AND FOG ARE
PROBABLE AGAIN...ESPECIALLY LATE. LIGHT WIND TRENDING SW LATE.

THURSDAY...ANY MORNING IFR/LIFR GIVES WAY TO VFR CONDS AND WIND
TRENDING SW OR W IN THE AFTN G10-15 KTS.

THIS WEEKEND...MVFR/IFR CONDS DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY IN SHOWERY RAINS WITH E FLOW SAT AND GUSTY N-NE FLOW 15 TO
25 KTS SUNDAY. SMALL CHC OF THUNDER S OF PHL.

OUTLOOK...
NO HEADLINES ATTM FORESEEN THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. LIGHT WINDS...
TENDING TO BE MAINLY SOUTH OR SE WITH A CFP OF SHIFTING WIND FRIDAY.

A STRONG PROBABILITY FOR STRONG SCA CONDITIONS LATE SATURDAY OR
MORE LIKELY SUNDAY IN STRENGTHENING NE FLOW SHIFTING N AND ATLC
SEAS BUILDING TO 6-8 FT.

.CLIMATE...
RECORD MAXS NOT ALL OF THESE WILL BE AT RISK OF EXCEEDENCE.

3/22 3/23

FOR THE THE FIRST 19 DAYS... DAILY MEAN TEMPS SO FAR ARE

KABE PLUS 10.7F
KACY PLUS 9.1F
KGED PLUS 9.2F
KPHL PLUS 8.9F
KRDG PLUS 10.2F
KTTN PLUS 11.0F
KILG PLUS 8.8F
KMPO PLUS 12.0F

SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...GIGI/HAYES
SHORT TERM...RPW
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...DRAG/GIGI
MARINE...DRAG/RPW
CLIMATE...DRAG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS COLUMBIA SC

310 AM EDT WED MAR 21 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS
OVER THE REGION. THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST
FRIDAY. A FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
IMMEDIATE NEAR TERM CONCERN IS FOG POTENTIAL. PATCHY DENSE FOG
CURRENTLY DEVELOPING NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE FA. WILL
MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE DENSE FOG ADVISORY.

OTHERWISE...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE EXPECTED TODAY. WE WILL REMAIN
UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS JUST TO OUR WEST.
MODELS INDICATE A WEAK UPPER IMPULSE MAY SET UP CONVECTION AGAIN
MAINLY JUST TO OUR NE. WITH WARM LAND TEMPS/COOL WATER TEMPS WITH
A SE GRADIENT FLOW...SIGNIFICANT SEA BREEZE EXPECTED. WRF MODEL
RUNS INDICATING SEA BREEZE CONVECTION DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON
AND MOVING INTO THE FA. WILL INDICATE MAINLY SHOWERS WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER. SEVERE NOT EXPECTED...AS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY AND WEAK SHEAR.

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE FOR THURSDAY AS WELL. UPPER RIDGE AXIS TO
REMAIN NEAR OR JUST WEST OF OUR REGION. AN UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY
DRIFT SOUTH...ACROSS THE NC COAST AND OFFSHORE...REMAINING JUST
EAST OF OUR FA. SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS...FAVORING THE EAST
AND SOUTHERN FA AGAIN THURSDAY. SIGNIFICANT SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY
EXPECTED AGAIN.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NO CHANGES MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

MODELS REMAIN IN AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH THE MAIN
FOCUS BEING THE UPPER LEVEL CUT OFF LOW. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING AND TRACK PERSIST...HOWEVER THERE IS OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH
THE SYNOPTIC SITUATION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. UPPER LEVEL
BLOCKING PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH A CUT
OFF LOW SLOWLY PROGRESSING THROUGH THE EASTERN US. BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE...HOWEVER WILL
REMAIN HIGHLY AMPLIFIED.

ON FRIDAY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN BREAKING DOWN AS THE
UPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH ILLINOIS. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND CROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY
AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD REACHING KY/TN LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL CROSS THE NC/VA AREA ON SUNDAY AND FINALLY
MOVE OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH THE UPPER RIDGE
AND DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN BUILDING BACK INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY AND
RESIDE OVER THE AREA TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL...WITH A SLIGHT COOLING TREND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CAE RADAR SHOWING SOME SHOWERS TO NORTH ENTERING NORTHERN COUNTIES
EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE
DEPICTED BY THE RUC MODEL. RUC SHOWS SHORT WAVE DROPPING SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING. SHOWERS APPEAR TO BE WEAKENING
AND DO NOT THINK THEY WILL HOLD TOGETHER AND AFFECT TAF SITES.
OTHERWISE...INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE SOUTHEAST FLOW
PLUS DIURNAL COOLING WILL RESULT IN MVFR OR IFR FOG DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. MOST OF THE NAM AND GFS MOS PLUS GFS LAMP
INDICATE FOG. SREF PROBABILITIES OF FOG ARE ALSO SIGNIFICANT.
HEATING AND MIXING SHOULD RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 15Z.
HEATING IN ADDITION TO AN EXPECTED SEA BREEZE WILL HELP CAUSE
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. UNCERTAIN AS TO COVERAGE OF
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WITH SHORT WAVE TO SOUTH AND 40 KM NAM SHOWING
RIDGE TO NORTH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL MIDLANDS INCLUDING
CAE AND CUB MAY LIMIT COVERAGE TO THE NORTH BUT SEA BREEZE TO
SOUTH MAY INCREASE COVERAGE THERE. DECIDED TO GO VFR BUT INCLUDE
SHOWER VCNTY REMARKS MOST TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WITH OGB BEING CLOSER AND BEING MORE AFFECTED BY SEA BREEZE...
DECIDED TO GO WITH TSTM VCNTY REMARK. AGAIN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST WILL DIRECT AN ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE AREA. LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FLOW MAY RESULT IN MAINLY LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING FOG THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY BRING
RESTRICTIONS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS COLUMBIA SC

133 AM EDT WED MAR 21 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THIS
WEEK...RESULTING IN CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
CONVECTION WINDING DOWN ACROSS THE CHARLOTTE METRO AREA AND LOOKS
LIKE PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS
BEFORE DISSIPATING. DO NOT EXPECT ADDITIONAL OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENT
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND WEAKENING INSTABILITY.

OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD FALL BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S AGAIN.
INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TODAY MAY
RESULT IN SOME PATCHY FOG AROUND THE REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
HAVE INCLUDED THAT IN THE FORECAST AFTER 2 AM.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA ON
WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES SOUTHWARD ALONG THE COAST.
DISTURBANCE WILL STALL ALONG THE NC COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN
GRADUALLY TRACK OFFSHORE THURSDAY BEFORE ACCELERATING EASTWARD
THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WITH
THE DISTURBANCE JUST NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL KEEP
INCREASING CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE
NORTHERN AND EASTERN MIDLANDS WITH LOWER CHANCES OVER THE CSRA.
ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE MODERATE THE CHANCE OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS LOW DUE TO WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
LIGHT WINDS ALOFT. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS REMAIN IN AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH THE MAIN
FOCUS BEING THE UPPER LEVEL CUT OFF LOW. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING AND TRACK PERSIST...HOWEVER THERE IS OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH
THE SYNOPTIC SITUATION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. UPPER LEVEL
BLOCKING PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH A CUT
OFF LOW SLOWLY PROGRESSING THROUGH THE EASTERN US. BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE...HOWEVER WILL
REMAIN HIGHLY AMPLIFIED.

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CAE RADAR SHOWING SOME SHOWERS TO NORTH ENTERING NORTHERN COUNTIES
EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE
DEPICTED BY THE RUC MODEL. RUC SHOWS SHORT WAVE DROPPING SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING. SHOWERS APPEAR TO BE WEAKENING
AND DO NOT THINK THEY WILL HOLD TOGETHER AND AFFECT TAF SITES.
OTHERWISE...INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE SOUTHEAST FLOW
PLUS DIURNAL COOLING WILL RESULT IN MVFR OR IFR FOG DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. MOST OF THE NAM AND GFS MOS PLUS GFS LAMP
INDICATE FOG. SREF PROBABILITIES OF FOG ARE ALSO SIGNIFICANT.
HEATING AND MIXING SHOULD RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 15Z.
HEATING IN ADDITION TO AN EXPECTED SEA BREEZE WILL HELP CAUSE
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. UNCERTAIN AS TO COVERAGE OF
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WITH SHORT WAVE TO SOUTH AND 40 KM NAM SHOWING
RIDGE TO NORTH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL MIDLANDS INCLUDING
CAE AND CUB MAY LIMIT COVERAGE TO THE NORTH BUT SEA BREEZE TO
SOUTH MAY INCREASE COVERAGE THERE. DECIDED TO GO VFR BUT INCLUDE
SHOWER VCNTY REMARKS MOST TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WITH OGB BEING CLOSER AND BEING MORE AFFECTED BY SEA BREEZE...
DECIDED TO GO WITH TSTM VCNTY REMARK. AGAIN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA.

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...07

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

235 AM CDT WED MAR 21 2012

.DISCUSSION...
900 PM CDT

MTF

//PREV DISCUSSION...
255 PM CDT

CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.

PRECIP CHCS WILL CONTINUE THRU SAT...THEN AS THE CUTOFF LOW DRIFTS
FURTHER EAST DRY AIR SHOULD RETURN FOR SUN/MON.

TEMPERATURE CONFIDENCE...HIGH.
PRECIPITATION CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.

BEACHLER

.CLIMATE...
900 PM CDT

CHICAGO ROCKFORD
HIGH WARM LOW HIGH WARM LOW
MAR 20: 53 (1918) 53 (1921)
MAR 21: 77 (1938) 54 (1918) 78 (1938) 53 (1948)

ALL TIME WARMEST FOR SO EARLY IN THE SEASON:
CHICAGO ROCKFORD
HIGH WARM LOW HIGH WARM LOW
82 (3/17/2012) 62 (3/13/1990) 82 (3/17/2012) 62 (3/19/2012)

ALL TIME RECORDS FOR MARCH:
CHICAGO ROCKFORD
HIGH WARM LOW HIGH WARM LOW
88 (3/29/2986) 66 (3/29/1998) 85 (3/29/1986) 63 (3/29/1998)

IZZI

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...

* SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

KJB

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...

A SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MEANDER ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL ONCE
AGAIN RESULT IN SOME GUST WINDS ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE WEAKER TODAY THAN IT WAS ON
TUESDAY. THEREFORE...WINDS SPEED SHOULD NOT BE A HIGH. CURRENTLY...I
AM EXPECTING SOME GUSTS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO THE LOW 20 KT RANGE.

OTHERWISE...ONLY SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO
IMPACT THE TERMINALS. ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH THIS STORM
SYSTEM LOOK TO HOLD OFF UNTIL THURSDAY.

KJB

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL FORECAST ELEMENTS.

KJB

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 00Z...

THURSDAY...VFR...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE
EVENING...MVFR BECOMING POSSIBLE.

FRIDAY...OCCASIONAL SHRA WITH TSRA POSSIBLE EARLY...MVFR POSSIBLE AT
TIMES.

SATURDAY...CHANCE SHRA EARLY...OTHERWISE...VFR.

SUNDAY...VFR. WX NIL.

MONDAY...VFR. WX NIL.

KREIN

.MARINE...
234 AM CDT

ANOTHER DAY OF SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN
AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE STILL MEANDERING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL SWITCH OUT OF THE EAST LATE
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE LOW ACROSS THE PLAINS SLOWLY LIFTS
NORTHEAST AND INTERACTS WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHEAST FROM
CANADA TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
DRIVE PRIMARILY EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE LAKE THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE
THE WINDS BECOME MORE NORTHERLY ON SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES
WITHIN THE VICINITY OF SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS NORTHERLY FLOW
MAY CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER...THERE ARE DISCREPANCIES WITH HOW
QUICKLY AND THE EXACT SOUTHERN EXTENT OF ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA EARLY NEXT
WEEK. IF IT MOVES SLOWER...AS SOME OF THE MODELS ARE INDICATING
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY BEFORE FINALLY BECOMING MORE
SOUTHERLY BY TUESDAY. UNCERTAINTY DURING THIS PERIOD REMAINS LOW.

KJB

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

1259 AM CDT WED MAR 21 2012

.DISCUSSION...
900 PM CDT

MTF

//PREV DISCUSSION...
255 PM CDT

CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.

PRECIP CHCS WILL CONTINUE THRU SAT...THEN AS THE CUTOFF LOW DRIFTS
FURTHER EAST DRY AIR SHOULD RETURN FOR SUN/MON.

TEMPERATURE CONFIDENCE...HIGH.
PRECIPITATION CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.

BEACHLER

.CLIMATE...
900 PM CDT

CHICAGO ROCKFORD
HIGH WARM LOW HIGH WARM LOW
MAR 20: 53 (1918) 53 (1921)
MAR 21: 77 (1938) 54 (1918) 78 (1938) 53 (1948)

ALL TIME WARMEST FOR SO EARLY IN THE SEASON:
CHICAGO ROCKFORD
HIGH WARM LOW HIGH WARM LOW
82 (3/17/2012) 62 (3/13/1990) 82 (3/17/2012) 62 (3/19/2012)

ALL TIME RECORDS FOR MARCH:
CHICAGO ROCKFORD
HIGH WARM LOW HIGH WARM LOW
88 (3/29/2986) 66 (3/29/1998) 85 (3/29/1986) 63 (3/29/1998)

IZZI

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...

* SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

KJB

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...

OTHERWISE...ONLY SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO
IMPACT THE TERMINALS. ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH THIS STORM
SYSTEM LOOK TO HOLD OFF UNTIL THURSDAY.

KJB

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL FORECAST ELEMENTS.

KJB

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 00Z...

THURSDAY...VFR...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE
EVENING...MVFR BECOMING POSSIBLE.

FRIDAY...OCCASIONAL SHRA WITH TSRA POSSIBLE EARLY...MVFR POSSIBLE AT
TIMES.

SATURDAY...CHANCE SHRA EARLY...OTHERWISE...VFR.

SUNDAY...VFR. WX NIL.

MONDAY...VFR. WX NIL.

KREIN

.MARINE...

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TOPEKA KS

317 AM CDT WED MAR 21 2012

.DISCUSSION...

THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TX PNHDL EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN OK
TODAY...THEN CONTINUE TO DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHEAST
KS INTO WESTERN MO ON FRIDAY.

TODAY...SHORTER WAVE LENGTH H5 TROUGHS WILL ROTATE AROUND THE CLOSED
UPPER LOW AND WILL PROVIDE ASCENT FOR PERIODS OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE
DAY. THE RAIN MAY BE MORE WIDESPREAD LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE AT 850MB IS ADVECTED NORTHWEST
ACROSS THE CWA. I DO NOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...SO I WILL NOT INCLUDE THEM IN THE FORECAST FOR
TODAY. QPF WILL RANGE FROM 0.10 INCH ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CWA UP TO
0.25 INCH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES.

TONIGHT...THE 700MB DRY SLOT WILL ROTATE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE UPPER
LOW. WE MAY SEE A DECREASE IN THE SHOWERS ACROSS THE CWA...THOUGH
LOW-LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL CAUSE PERIODS OF DRIZZLE AND THIS MAY
ACCUMULATE A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF LIQUID PRECIP. LOWS
WILL ONLY DROP OFF INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AS THE COLD CORE UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS
EASTERN KS WE WILL HAVE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME
THUNDERSTORMS. SKIES CLEAR A BIT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND WE RECEIVE
SOME SURFACE HEATING...THEN LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT UNDER
THE COLD CORE LOW TO PRODUCE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND PERHAPS AGAIN
FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. THE THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD NOT BE SEVERE DUE TO THE LACK OF DEEPER GULF MOISTURE. HIGHS
WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER 60S ON THURSDAY WITH MID 60S ON FRIDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE EAST TOWARD
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. A H5 TROUGH WILL MOVE ONSHORE ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A DOWNSTREAM H5 RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY
ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS WEEKEND THEN TRANSLATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
EAST CENTRAL CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH A
WARMING TREND. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S ON SATURDAY...MID 70S
ON SUNDAY AND UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S BY MONDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...THE H5 TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY LATE TUESDAY. DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL RETURN AHEAD OF A DEEPENING LEE TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
AND THE RESULTING ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE
RETURN MAY BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
CWA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. A PACIFIC COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE STATE ON TUESDAY AS THE H5 TROUGH LIFTS
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. SFC CONVERGENCE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL CAUSE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE CWA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW LOOKS
WEAK...SO THE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON MAY NOT BE SEVERE.

GARGAN

.AVIATION...
THERE REMAINS A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE HEIGHTS OF THE
CIGS...WITH OBS JUMPING ALL AROUND. LATEST GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM
AND RUC SUGGESTS THAT CIGS SHOULD BE BETWEEN 2 AND 3 KFT AT BEST.
THIS SEEMS TO MAKE SINCE WITH AN EASTERLY LOW LEVEL WIND ADVECTING
HIGHER MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL KS. THEREFORE BEST GUESS IS FOR COGS
TO REMAIN AROUND 2 KFT THROUGH THE NIGHT. THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME
LIGHT DZ OR RA...HOWEVER MODELS SHOW THE BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT
DEVELOPING TOWARDS LATE MORNING. MODELS ALSO HAVE THE BETTER
VERTICAL MOTION DURING THE AFTERNOON. THEREFORE WILL FOCUS
PERSISTENT RAIN DURING THIS PERIOD. THINK THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK
IN PRECIP CHANCES WEDNESDAY EVENING AS ISENTROPIC LIFT BECOMES LESS
ORGANIZED. OVERALL THIS FORECAST IS LOW CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT TO
THE CIGS HEIGHTS AND TIMING OF PRECIP.

WOLTERS

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

105 AM MDT WED MAR 21 2012

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 846 PM MDT TUE MAR 20 2012

TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY...UPDATED TO LOWER POPS TONIGHT AND SLOW THE
INCREASE IN POPS WEDNESDAY. KGLD RADAR SHOWING NO PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE AREA. 00Z NAM/RUC AND LATEST HRRR AND EVEN THE 18Z GFS
SHOW THAT ALTHOUGH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE FOR
PRECIPITATION MOST OF IT WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR EAST AND SOUTHEAST
PARTS OF THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. WASNT AS
CONFIDENT IN CONFINING POPS TOMORROW MORNING TO THE SAME AREAS AS
00Z GFS HASNT COME IN YET. BASED ON THE NAM/ECMWF AND SREF BULK OF
PRECIP WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN 1/3 OF THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS.

OTHER ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO ALL REMAINING WX PARAMETERS THROUGH
THE REST OF THE NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT TUE MAR 20 2012

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 100 AM MDT WED MAR 21 2012

UPPER LOW WILL BE MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA ON THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
THREAT OF SHOWERS ENDING. UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD IN ITS WAKE AND
DOMINATE THE LONG TERM PERIOD...RESULTING IN WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS. NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN ROCKIES ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...A TRACK
WHICH SUGGESTS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL BE DRY SLOTTED.
HOWEVER...ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL KNOCK TEMPERATURES
DOWN 10 DEGREES OR SO THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS OF THIS PERIOD.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1039 PM MDT TUE MAR 20 2012

STARTING TO SEE AN INCREASE IN SPOTTY RADAR ECHOES JUST EAST OF
KHLC WITH ACTIVITY MOVING WEST. STILL THINKING IS THAT BOTH KGLD
AND KMCK TERMINALS WILL BE DRY THROUGH AT LEAST 14Z WITH A SLOW
INCREASE IN RAIN/SHOWER POTENTIAL AFTERWARD WITH THE BEST CHANCE
AFTER 17Z AT KMCK AND 00Z-03Z AT KGLD. CIGS WILL REMAIN VFR
THROUGH 00Z OR SO BEFORE FALLING INTO THE MVFR RANGE AND POSSIBLY
IFR RANGE (CLOSER TO 06Z). NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING AROUND
30 KTS EXPECTED AROUND 15Z-17Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH 00Z BEFORE
SUBSIDING.

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...007
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM....024
AVIATION...007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

1049 PM MDT TUE MAR 20 2012

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 846 PM MDT TUE MAR 20 2012

OTHER ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO ALL REMAINING WX PARAMETERS THROUGH
THE REST OF THE NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT TUE MAR 20 2012

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT TUE MAR 20 2012

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1039 PM MDT TUE MAR 20 2012

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...007
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM....DR
AVIATION...007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TOPEKA KS

1125 PM CDT TUE MAR 20 2012

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
SEE PREV DISCUSSION.

WOLTERS

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 PM CDT TUE MAR 20 2012/
TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY...UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER WEST TEXAS WILL
SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN COMPARED TO TODAY WILL CONTINUE...WITH
OCCASIONALLY WET CONDITIONS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
WHILE MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE SHOWERS AT SOME POINT
OVERNIGHT...THE MOST PROLONGED PERIODS WILL BE OVER FAR EASTERN
AND FAR SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA WHERE THE STRONGEST FORCING
IS PROJECTED TO RESIDE. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS DRY AIR TO WORK ITS WAY
INTO THE CWA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH A 3-6 HOUR LULL IN
PRECIPITATION. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM WILL
REDEVELOP AND SPREAD INTO THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON AS LARGE
SCALE ASCENT INCREASES OVER CENTRAL KANSAS IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER
LOW. CHANCES FOR MORE ROBUST THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL RESIDE
EAST OF THE CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR...AND TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE
CWA UNDERNEATH THE UPPER LOW WHERE SURFACE HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE
TO STRONG LAPSE RATES. FLOODING CONCERNS REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE
WITH THE ANTICIPATED QPF...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ANDERSON AND
SOUTHEAST FRANKLIN COUNTY...WHERE 2-3 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE ALREADY
FALLEN. SOME MINOR RIVER FLOODING MAY BE POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL
WARM INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. BLAIR

EXPECT CHANCE OF PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...WITH POSSIBLY SOME ISOLATED THUNDER ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT UNDER THE UPPER LOW HELP
CREATE A FEW HUNDRED JOULES OF INSTABILITY. PERIODS OF RAIN ALSO
EXPECTED TO KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S AND DAYTIME HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 60S. EXPECT IT TO BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER IN EASTERN
COUNTIES WHERE WARMER AIR IS WRAPPING BACK INTO THE SYSTEM.
RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING RAIN CHANCES TO AN END FROM
WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE ARE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND ANTICIPATE A
SIMILAR TEMPERATURE REGIME PERHAPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER AS SKIES
CLEAR.

AREA UNDER SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE LOW BUT IS
ALSO UNDER A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...AND EXPECT SUNSHINE TO
GET AREA BACK INTO THE 70S. INCREASE IN MIXING AND SURFACE FLOW
SHOULD RAISE HIGHS TO THE MIDDLE 70S BY SUNDAY. AS UPPER FLOW
TRANSITIONS TO SOUTHWESTERLY WITH NEXT TROF APPROACHING... HIGHS
MAY REACH TOWARD 80 BY MONDAY. HIGHS TUESDAY DEPENDENT ON WHETHER
FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS MAKES IT THIS FAR SOUTH.
HAVE GONE SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH JUST SLGT CHANCE POPS ATTM. 67

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON NC

139 AM EDT WED MAR 21 2012

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST IS PRODUCING A LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WIND ACROSS THE
AREA WITH UNSEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES AND HIGH DEWPOINTS. AT AND
ABOVE THE 700 MB LEVEL A STRONG RIDGE EXISTS ALONG THE APPALACHIANS
WITH NORTHERLY MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW RUNNING FROM THE MID-
ATLANTIC INTO THE COASTAL SOUTHEAST STATES. A SERIES OF UPPER
DISTURBANCES IN THIS COOL FLOW ALOFT HAVE CREATED WAVES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS SPACED ROUGHLY 12-18 HOURS
APART. THE LATEST WAVE CURRENTLY IS MOVING SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA AND MAY BRING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO
INLAND PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. THE LATEST THREE RUNS OF THE HRRR MODEL SHOW CONVECTION
DISSIPATING JUST BEFORE REACHING THE LUMBERTON/ BENNETTSVILLE
VICINITY. LATEST RADAR TRENDS SEEM TO SUPPORT THIS IDEA AS WELL.
THEREFORE WE HAVE LOWERED POPS TO NO HIGHER THAN 30 PERCENT ACROSS
THE BENNETTSVILLE AREA. 20 PERCENT (SLIGHT CHANCE) POPS ARE BEING
RESTRICTED TO AREAS NORTH OF FLORENCE AND MARION...AND WEST OF
WHITEVILLE AND WHITE LAKE. OFFSHORE CONVECTION ALONG THE WESTERN
WALL OF THE GULF STREAM SHOULD HAVE LITTLE LUCK CROSSING THE COLD
NEARSHORE WATERS AND SHOULD NOT AFFECT LAND TONIGHT.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...THE HIGH AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE EAST COAST
IS SLOWLY BE PINCHED OFF AS A UPPER LEVEL LOW NORTH OF THE
DELMARVA. THIS LOW WILL SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTH ALONG THE COAST. THIS
WILL BRING A CONTINUED CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. THE TIMING OF THE WEAK SHORTWAVES IS PROBLEMATIC THUS HAVE
KEPT IN THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE
ONSHORE FLOW WILL PROVIDE MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVEL AND THE
UPPER LEVEL WILL INCREASE THE MOISTURE THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN THROUGH OVERNIGHT FRIDAY THUS THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE MID 70S NEAR THE COAST TO AROUND
80 DEGREES INLAND LOWS WILL FALL TO THE UPPER 70S.

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD...WITH EXCEPTION OF
POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS DUE TO POTENTIAL
FOG DEVELOPMENT. ANTICIPATE CLOUDS TO FILL IN ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LEFTOVER ACTIVITY FROM EARLIER NORTH OF OUR AREA. THIS COULD INHIBIT
ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE AFTER 9Z. SFC WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
OVERNIGHT...AND THIS WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD HELP DEVELOP
FOG...THOUGH BOUNDARY WINDS WILL BE A BIT STRONGER. FOR NOW HAVE
KEPT MVFR/POTENTIAL IFR AT ALL TERMINALS...WITH GREATEST POTENTIAL
AT INLAND SITES AND KCRE GIVEN LOCAL CLIMATOLOGICAL EFFECTS. AFTER
14Z...ANTICIPATE ANY LINGERING FOG TO QUICKLY DISSIPATE GIVING WAY
TO VFR BKN/OVC SKIES. WINDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY WILL BE
SOUTHEAST...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AOB 10 KTS THROUGH THE VALID TAF.
CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LATER TODAY.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MORNING FOG/MVFR AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. BETTER CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

NEAR TERM...REK/RGZ
SHORT TERM...DRH
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...SGL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

345 AM CDT WED MAR 21 2012

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH FRIDAY
345 AM CDT WED MAR 21 2012

FOCUS IS ON RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD ALONG WITH UNSEASONABLY
WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUING.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A LARGE CLOSED LOW OVER TX
WITH HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. DEEP SOUTHERLY
WARM/MOIST FETCH CONTINUES AHEAD OF THE LOW INTO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION. AS A RESULT...NATIONAL RADAR MOSAIC
SHOWS LARGE CONVEYOR BELT OF SHRA EXTENDING FROM THE LA GULF COAST
AREA NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN IA...THEN TAPERING OFF GOING INTO
NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHEAST MN. MEANWHILE...LOCAL RADAR MOSAIC ALSO
SHOWING FRONTOGENETIC FORCED SHRA ACTIVITY OCCURING ACROSS THE
ARROWHEAD OF MN/NORTHWEST WI...DOWN THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL MN.
OTHERWISE...EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER IN OUR FORECAST AREA...DRY
AND WARM CONDITIONS PREVAILED WITH TEMPERATURES AT 2 AM STILL IN THE
60S.

21.00Z NCEP MODEL SUITE/GEM/ECMWF/20.21Z SREF ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH HANDLING OF THE CLOSED LOW COMING OUT OF TX AND ITS AFFECT ON
OUR AREA.

FOR TODAY...WILL CONTINUE TO SEE MOISTURE FEED AHEAD OF THE UPPER
LOW INTO OUR REGION NAM DEPICTING SFC-700MB FRONTOGENESIS REMAINING
NORTHWEST OF OUR AREA FOR FOCUS OF HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES. WITH THIS
IN MIND AND RIDGING OVER THE GREAT LAKES PROVIDING DRYING IN THE
LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...HAVE
TRIMMED BEST RAIN CHANCES FARTHER NORTHWEST. THIS KEEPS EAST OF A
LINE FROM BLACK RIVER FALLS THROUGH LA CROSSE AND OELWEIN IA DRY FOR
TODAY. THUNDER THREAT WITH THE SHRA ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PARTS OF
THE FORECAST AREA NOT THAT GREAT TODAY AS CAPE IS MINIMAL. DID KEEP
SOME MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER IN WITH DECENT FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING. OTHERWISE...LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY TODAY
WITH AREAS VOID OF RAIN TODAY SEEING TEMPERATURES TOPPING OFF IN THE
UPPER 70S.

TONIGHT WILL SEE BEST SHRA CHANCES STAYING ACROSS NORTHWEST HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA //ROUGHLY NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM BLACK RIVER
FALLS WI-LA CROSSE WI-OELWEIN IA// WITH LINGERING AREA OF 850-700MB
FRONTOGENESIS.

FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WILL SEE THAT CLOSED LOW OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LIFT NORTHEAST INTO MO. THIS SWINGS A BAND OF
MAINLY SHRA NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE AREA. DID INCLUDE ISOLATED
THUNDER MENTION DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AS THE NAM DEPICTS 0-1KM ML
CAPE AROUND 800J/KG DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. FRIDAY LOOKS A BIT MORE
DOUBTFUL FOR THUNDER WITH VERY LIMITED CAPE...BUT OPTED TO KEEP IT
IN FOR NOW. OTHERWISE...LOOKS LIKE RAIN TOTALS POTENTIALLY RUNNING
FROM 1/4 TO 3/4 OF AN INCH.

MAINTAINED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE CLOSED LOW
LIFTS INTO IL AND CYCLONIC FLOW AFFECTS THE AREA.

TEMPERATURE-WISE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD TOP
OFF IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S ON THURSDAY BEFORE TH RAIN SETS
IN...AND THEN COOL INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S ON FRIDAY WITH
LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN AND CLOUD COVER.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
345 AM CDT WED MAR 21 2012

21.00Z GFS/ECMWF SHOWS THE CLOSED LOW MOVES ACROSS IL ON SATURDAY
WITH COOLER/CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AFFECTING OUR AREA ALONG WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF -SHRA. AS THE CLOSED LOW SHIFTS EAST OF TH REGION
ON SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR DRY AND
WARMER CONDITIONS. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND BACK INTO THE
60S TO LOWER 70S. MONDAY COULD SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR A RATHER STEEP
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IS
DUE TO SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH OUT OF ONTARIO INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. COOLER NORTHEAST FLOW HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR
HOLDING TEMPERATURES AROUND 60 OVER NORTH CENTRAL WI...TO NEAR 80
DEGREES ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST IOWA. IN ADDITION...THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA IN ISENTROPIC
LIFT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SHRA/TS CHANCE
ENTER THE PICTURE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY AS THE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS PUSHES TOWARD THE AREA.

.AVIATION...THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY
1138 PM CDT TUE MAR 20 2012

SCATTERED SHOWERS THAT MOVED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IOWA AND
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA THIS EVENING ARE NOW LIFTING TO THE NORTH OF
THE AREA. REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING A BREAK IN THE SHOWERS WITH THE
NEXT POTENTIAL ROUND OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI AND EXTREME SOUTHERN
IOWA. THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE NIGHT
AS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES. THERE WILL ALSO BE
SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC UP GLIDE WITH THIS MOISTURE TRANSPORT WITH
THE 21.00Z NAM SHOWING BETWEEN 3 AND 5 UBAR/S ON THE 300K SURFACE.
THE NAM BRINGS THESE SHOWERS INTO KRST LATE TONIGHT ON THE NOSE OF
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT BUT THE HRRR HAS BEEN
CONSISTENTLY SUGGESTING THESE WILL WEAKEN AS THEY LIFT NORTH
OVERNIGHT. THE 21.01Z RUN BRINGS JUST SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
THROUGH NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AROUND DAYBREAK.
FOR NOW...HAVE CONTINUED WITH JUST A MENTION OF VICINITY SHOWERS
FOR KRST WHILE KEEPING KLSE DRY.

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
345 AM CDT WED MAR 21 2012

WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...04

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

1139 PM CDT TUE MAR 20 2012

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH FRIDAY
340 PM CDT TUE MAR 20 2012

THE ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT SHOULD LIFT NORTH WEDNESDAY DURING THE
MORNING AS THE FORCING DOES AS WELL. THINKING A VERY SIMILAR DAY
TO TODAY WITH SWRN WI POSSIBLY NEAR 80F AGAIN AND BUILDING CAPE.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
340 PM CDT TUE MAR 20 2012

.AVIATION...THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY
1138 PM CDT TUE MAR 20 2012

.FIRE WEATHER...
340 PM CDT TUE MAR 20 2012

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
344 PM CDT TUE MAR 20 2012

WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.

SHORT TERM...BAUMGARDT
LONG TERM...BAUMGARDT
AVIATION...04
FIRE WEATHER...BAUMGARDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA

1156 AM EDT WED MAR 21 2012

.UPDATE...

GRIDS LOOK OKAY FOR THE MOST PART AT THIS TIME. HAVE MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY GRIDS JUST TO CATCH TRENDS BUT OVERALL NO
MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON MAX TEMPS...
ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER OUT THERE THIS MORNING HAS KEPT HOURLY
TEMPS BELOW THE FORECAST. EXPECT CLOUDS TO SCATTER OUT AND TEMPS
SHOULD CATCH UP BUT WILL MONITOR JUST IN CASE. POPS ACROSS EASTERN
ZONES STILL LOOK GOOD AS LOCAL WRF AND HRRR KEEPING MOST OF THE
CONVECTION ON THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THE CWA.

TDP

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 743 AM EDT WED MAR 21 2012/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
/ISSUED AT 344 AM EDT WED MAR 21 2012/
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEP CUT OFF LOW SPINNING OVER
TX...WHILE REGIONAL RADARS SHOW THE ASSOCIATED LINE OF CONVECTION
ACROSS CENTRAL AR AND LA. GFS AND NAM MODELS INITIALIZED WELL WITH
THESE FEATURES AT 06Z TONIGHT. BOTH MODELS ARE GOOD AGREEMENT ON
DRIFTING THE LOW OVER OK BY THIS EVENING WHERE IT SPINS THROUGH
THURSDAY...BEFORE LIFTING INTO AR/MO BY EARLY FRIDAY MORN. DURING
THIS TIME...THE ASSOCIATED LINE OF CONVECTION BARELY PUSHES INTO
WESTERN AL BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE SLOW PROGRESSION SUGGEST ONE
MORE DAY OF SUMMER LIKE PATTERN HERE TODAY... BEFORE THE DEEPER
MOISTURE AND INCREASING RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO PUSH INTO THE AREA ON
THURSDAY. A SUBTLE WEAKENING OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND THE INCREASE IN
HIGH CLOUDS WILL WARRANT GOING A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER WITH HIGHS
TODAY. A CONTINUED INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE... WEAKENING RIDGE
ALOFT AND 500-1000 J/KG AFTERNOON CAPE HAVE WARRANTED THE CONTINUED
MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER...BUT MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN ZONES
WHERE THE GREATER MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED.
WILL SHOW A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALL ZONES ON
THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LOW DRAWS NEAR AND A DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW
ADVECTS AMPLE GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD. A PERSISTENT MID LEVEL RIDGE
INFLUENCE WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD CONVECTION WELL BELOW SEVERE LIMITS
TODAY. THEN EXPECT CLOUD COVER...COOLER HIGH TEMPS AND MODEST
INSTABILITIES TO HELP HOLD STORMS BELOW SEVERE LIMITS AGAIN ON
THURSDAY.

AS FOR TEMPS... CONTINUED TO TAKE A MAV/MET BLEND WITH A SLIGHT LEAN
TOWARD PERSISTENCE MINUS A DEGREE OR TWO. EXPECT TO EXTEND THE MARCH
CONSECUTIVE 80 DEGREE DAY RECORDS AT ATL AND AHN... BREAK THE RECORD
AT CSG...AND TIE THE RECORD AT MCN TODAY. INCREASING CLOUDS AND RAIN
CHANCES ON THURSDAY SHOULD HELP HOLD HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 70S...BUT
CSG AND MCN AREAS WILL BE CLOSE TO THE 80 MARK AGAIN...AND COULD
BREAK THE MCN RECORD ON THU.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 344 AM EDT WED MAR 21 2012/
DEEP...SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW FINALLY STARTING TO LIFT NORTHEAST BY
THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. AMPLE MOISTURE AND
DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW FRIDAY FOR LIKELY POPS INTO THE NORTHWEST...
SPREADING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. UPPER LOW DIGS BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY IN RESPONSE
TO A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. UPPER DYNAMICS AND BEST
MOISTURE ARE EAST OF GEORGIA BY THEN...BUT COOL POOL ALOFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER LOW KEEPS ENOUGH INSTABILITY OVER THE REGION FOR AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION. BY MONDAY...AND FOR THE BALANCE
OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...THE CENTRAL U.S. UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS
EAST OVER THE REGION WITH DRY AND WARM WEATHER RETURNING.

CLIMATE...

RECORDS FOR 03-21

MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAHN 84 1948 41 1950 62 1994 21 1965
1935
1921
KATL 86 1907 37 1914 62 1994 21 1965
1921
1907
KCSG 85 1982 48 1998 62 1994 25 1956
KMCN 90 1907 45 1914 64 1921 27 1965
1907

AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
LOW MVFR STRATUS DECK DEVELOPED OVER NE GA AND CONTINUES TO SPREAD
SW TOWARD ATL THIS MORNING. ATL OBS ALREADY SHOWING FEW015 AND
EXPECT THIS TO BECOME SCT BY 13-14Z IF NOT SOONER. STILL EXPECT THE
MVFR CIGS TO SCT BEFORE GETTING TO ATL AS SUFFICIENT DAYLIGHT SHOULD
HELP QUICKLY HELP TRANSITION THE ST TO CU BY 14-16Z. PREVAILING
WINDS WILL BE SE AROUND 9-11KTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 16-18KTS FROM
17-22Z. THE MAIN CONCERN IS EXPECTED MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING AT ALL TAF
SITES BY AROUND 06Z TONIGHT...THEN LOWERING TO IFR CIGS BY 09Z
THU...WITH SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CIGS THRU 16-17Z THU. EXPECT ANY
PRECIP THREAT ON THU TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 18Z AT THIS TIME.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CLOUDS THIS MORNING AND TONIGHT. HIGH
CONFIDENCE ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 82 59 79 59 / 20 20 30 20
ATLANTA 81 61 78 62 / 10 10 30 20
BLAIRSVILLE 77 54 74 56 / 20 20 30 20
CARTERSVILLE 82 56 79 58 / 10 10 30 30
COLUMBUS 82 62 81 62 / 10 10 30 20
GAINESVILLE 80 59 77 60 / 20 20 30 20
MACON 82 60 81 60 / 20 20 30 10
ROME 85 57 80 59 / 10 10 30 40
PEACHTREE CITY 80 57 78 58 / 10 10 30 20
VIDALIA 83 60 81 60 / 20 20 30 10

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DODGE CITY KS

1041 AM CDT WED MAR 21 2012

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1039 AM CDT WED MAR 21 2012

A MID LEVEL DRY HOLE ON THE MESOSCALE WAS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE OVER
FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...WHICH WAS TAKING ON A RATHER CIRCULAR APPEARANCE
RIGHT AT THE CENTER OF A SMALL SCALE POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY.
JUST OUTSIDE OF THIS FEATURE ON THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST
SIDE...UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WAS ENHANCED AND PRECIPITATION WAS
HEAVIEST FROM MEADE COUNTY NORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHERN CLARK COUNTY
(AS OF 1530 UTC). THE SHORT TERM MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE 3KM
HRRR...BLOSSOM PRECIPITATION ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THIS PV ANOMALY
THROUGH THE DAY WITH HOURLY PRECIPITATION RATES OF 0.10 OF AN INCH
OR GREATER ON THE HRRR EXPANDING OVER MUCH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS. BY
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...DIFFERENTIAL HEATING WILL AID IN LOW LEVEL
FRONTOGENETIC CIRCULATION AND AID IN THE LIFT TO ENHANCE
PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS. POPS AND QPF GRIDS
HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT A BIT HIGHER VALUES GIVEN INCREASED
CONFIDENCE. 0.30 TO 0.50 INCH PRECIPITATION TOTALS ARE IN THE
FORECAST BETWEEN NOW (1530 UTC) AND 0000 UTC THIS EVENING ANYWHERE
FROM THE OKLAHOMA BORDER NORTH TO HIGHWAY 96...AND BETWEEN HIGHWAY
83 AND HIGHWAY 183. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WERE ALSO LOWERED (NEAR
STEADY IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S) WITH PRECIPITATION AND LOW CLOUDS
EXPECTED ALL DAY.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 256 AM CDT WED MAR 21 2012

LOOKING A THE CURRENT RADAR, LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS ARE OVER
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PART OF OUR CWA, WITH STRONGER CONVECTION IN
NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA ROTATING NORTHWARD. DECIDED TO CHANGE THE
POPS IN THE COLDWATER AND MEDICINE LODGE TO LIKELY 60 POPS, BASED
MAINLY ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. THE SHORT TERM MODELS OF THE HRR,
RUC AND NAM MODELS ALL BRING A BAND OF RAIN FROM 0.20 TO 0.35
INCHES ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST INTO SOUTHWESTERN CWA AFTER 12Z. A
VORTICITY MAX AT 500 AND 700 MB IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AND
INTO OUR WEST BETWEEN 12 AND 18Z, WHERE THERE ALSO APPEARS TO BE A
FRONTOGENESIS ZONE AT THE 700 AND 850 MB LEVELS. MOISTURE IS DEEP
AND IN PLACE AND WILL ONLY GET MORE SATURATED AND DEEPER WITH
TIME. AT 00Z LAST EVENING, NEAR 100 PERCENT RH WAS EVIDENT ON THE
DDC SOUNDING UP TO ABOUT 600MB; FORECAST SOUNDINGS TO 00Z THIS
EVENING SHOWED DEEP MOISTURE TO 450MB. THIS RAISES QUESTION OF HOW
MUCH QPF WE WILL GET. STAYED NEAR THE CURRENT 0.28 TO 0.35 INCH
WEST OF A LACROSSE TO MEADE LINE, AND BASICALLY WHERE 80 TO 90
POPS WILL BE. IN OUR SOUTHEAST, THE PRECIP WILL BE MORE
INTERMITTENT, AND QPF VALUES WILL BE IN THE 0.18 TO 0.21 INCH
RANGE. IS THERE A TORNADO THREAT TODAY? I DON`T THINK IT IS TOO
GREAT, BASED ON LOW LEVEL CAPE VERY LOW AND SHEAR NOT FAVORABLE.
HOWEVER, WITH THAT STATED, THERE WERE REPORTS OF FUNNEL CLOUDS ON
MONDAY, NEAR THE COLD CORE OF THE UPPER LOBE ROTATING THROUGH. THE
COLDEST PART OF THE UPPER LOW WILL BE SOUTH OF OUR CWA DOWN IN
OKLAHOMA. MAY MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TOR`S IN THE HWO, BUT
DOWN PLAY THE CHANCES. TEMPERATURE TODAY SHOULD BE COLDER THAN
YESTERDAY, WITH MORE PRECIP PLAYING A ROLE, SO LEFT THE GOING
UPPER 40S IN THE WEST AND LOWER TO MID 50S EAST. FURTHERMORE, OUR
WEST WILL BECOME WINDY AS A THE LOW LEVEL GRADIENT TIGHTENS THIS
AFTERNOON, PERHAPS IN THE 20 G 30 MPH RANGE, BUT JUST SHY OF A WIND
ADVISORY.

TONIGHT, THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW WILL HAVE MOVED A LITTLE
EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL STILL
BE OVER MOST OF OUR CWA, THUS LIKELY POPS FOR RAIN AND RAINSHOWERS
WILL BE OVER OUR NORTHWEST HALF PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT, AND THEN LIKELY
POPS SHIFTING SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM LARNED TO ASHLAND BY THURSDAY
12Z. AFTER MIDNIGHT, WILL LOWER POPS IN THE NORTHWESTERN 2/3RDS OF
THE CWA TO 30 TO 40 CHANCE POPS, AS MOISTURE WILL MOVE EAST ALONG WITH
THE UPPER AND MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVING EAST. EXPECT THE
QPF WILL BE LOWER TONIGHT ALSO, RANGING FROM 0.06 INCH IN THE
SOUTHEAST TO THE 0.15-0.18 INCH RANGE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CWA
BEFORE MIDNIGHT, TO AROUND 0.05-0.08 INCH AFTER MIDNIGHT. MINS WILL
BE TRICKY, AND HIGHLY DEPENDENT OF THE SHIFTING PRECIP, BUT MID
30S IN OUR WEST RANGING TO LOWER 40S IN OUR SOUTHEAST SEEM
APPROPRIATE AND WITHIN ISC TOLERANCES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT WED MAR 21 2012

RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THAT THE 00 UTC GFS AND NAM ARE HANDLING THE
PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER SYSTEM OVER NORTHWEST TEXAS MUCH BETTER THAN
THE 12 UTC RUN OF THE ECMWF. WITH THIS IN MIND WE`LL HEDGE POPS
CLOSER TO THE NAM OR SREF VALUES WHICH FOCUS PRECIPITATION NEAR THE
DEFORMATION AXIS ACROSS THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA EARLY
THURSDAY, AND THEN IS MORE FOCUSED IN THE SHARPER ISENTROPIC LIFT
ZONE NEAR THE TRANSIENT 850 LOW OVER CENTRAL KANSAS LATER IN THE
DAY. EVERYTHING ELSE LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE WIOTH RESPECT TO THIS
SYSTEM INCLUDING THE LOW TO MID 50S TEMPERATURES. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AND COULD BE EVEN MORE SCATTERED IN
NATURE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
INSTABILITY INCREASES DUE TO STEEPENING LAPSE RATES WITH RESPECT TO
THE COLD POOL ALOFT AND WARMING BOUNDARY LAYER TEMEPRATURES.
WE WILL STILL PREFER THE COOLER END OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE OUTPUT FOR
FRIDAY`S MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SINCE CENTRAL KANSAS WILL STILL BE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DEEP CYCLONIC NORTHERLY FLOW AND TIGHT
THERMAL PACKING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE WAS
MADE TO THE FORECAST IN THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. BOTH THE
ECMWF AND GFS HAVE VERY SIMILAR PATTERNS MOVING INTO THE WEEKEND.
THE UPPER (500 MB LEVEL) LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS LOCATED BY BOTH NEAR
KY/TN BY SUNDAY EVENING, ALLOWING A RIDGE TO BUILD ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS REGION. THIS WILL MEAN A PERIOD MARKED BY SOUTHERLY SURFACE
WINDS, AND A WARMING TREND WITH GENERALLY LITTLE CHANCE FOR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE MODELS DO INDICATE A
RELATIVELY NARROW FETCH OF GULF MOISTURE RETURNING ACROSS WEST TEXAS
EARLY IN THE WEEK, WHICH COULD BRING IN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BY MID
WEEK. IN FACT, THESE LATEST RUNS OF THE EC AND GFS BOTH SUGGEST THIS
POTENTIAL PERHAPS AS EARLY AS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. A SOUTHERN STREAM SUBTROPICAL JET WILL PLAY A
ROLE AS WELL AS A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE ROTATING THROUGH THE WESTERN
STATES TOWARD THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON TUESDAY. ANY ONE OF THESE
DAYS COULD BRING DRYLINE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THE CURRENT
ALLBLEND IS NOT YET FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPING SIGNIFICANT POPS FOR
SUCH AND OCCURRENCE. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE RECOVERING FROM A
RELATIVELY COOL PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL AND THE AIRMASS
BEHIND THIS WILL NOT BE ANOMALOUSLY WARM. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WARMER THAN NORMAL BY ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND AND PERHAPS HITTING 80 DEGREES OR MORE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 758 AM CDT WED MAR 21 2012

AN UPPER LOW OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY WILL LIFT INTO CENTRAL KANSAS
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WIDESPREAD LIFR CEILINGS ARE LIFTING
NORTHWARD JUST AHEAD OF THIS LOW AND WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE HYS
AND DDC TERMINALS THOUGH MUCH OF TODAY. A PERIOD OF DEFORMATION
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR AGAIN LATER THIS EVENING THAT WILL LIKELY
AFFECT THE KGCK TERMINAL. ISOLATED TSRA CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE
VICINITY OF ANY OF THE TERMINALS. BEST CHANCES FOR TSRA WILL BE
NEAR KDDC AND KHYS OVERNIGHT AND DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AS THE
LOW MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 49 39 55 37 / 90 80 70 30
GCK 47 37 55 35 / 90 80 50 20
EHA 44 37 55 38 / 90 80 80 20
LBL 48 37 55 38 / 90 80 60 20
HYS 53 39 56 36 / 70 80 40 30
P28 59 41 55 39 / 90 80 90 60

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...UMSCHEID
SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM....RUSSELL
AVIATION...RUSSELL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RALEIGH NC

1000 AM EDT WED MAR 21 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER VIRGINIA WILL INCREASE THE
RISK FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL NC
THROUGH THURSDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE AREA ON
FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BRINGS ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE WEEKEND.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM WEDNESDAY...

VISIBILITIES ARE STEADILY IMPROVING OVER THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT AND
THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 10 AM. AN AREA
OF SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM EDGECOMBE COUNTY TO JOHNSTON COUNTY
APPEARS TO BE ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DISTURBANCE PASSING
THROUGH SOUTHEAST VA. THE RAIN HAS BEEN PERSISTENT ENOUGH FOR AN
URBAN/SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY...BUT RATES HAVE BEEN LOW ENOUGH
THAT ANY FLOODING SHOULD BE VERY MINOR. AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES
OFFSHORE IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
SHOULD DIMINISH.

FOR TODAY...MOST OF THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED SINCE THE
OVERALL PATTERN HAS BEEN PERSISTENT THAT PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. PW
VALUES ARE STILL NEAR 1.25 INCHES OR 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL EAST OF
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS...WHICH IS OVER THE TN/OH VALLEYS THIS
MORNING. THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION THAT HAS BEEN LINGERING AROUND
THE MASON-DIXON LINE WILL DROP SOUTH AND EAST TODAY ACROSS EASTERN
VA AND NORTHEAST NC AND WILL PROVIDE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON. IN PARTICULAR...THERE IS ONE WEAK PERTURBATION
NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER CENTRAL VA THAT WE WILL WATCH AS
IT ROTATES SOUTH AROUND THE MAIN VORT MAX. LATEST HRRR RUNS SHOW
CONVECTION FIRING BY 18-20Z ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT...ALTHOUGH
THE HRRR ALONG WITH OTHER HI-RES MODELS HAVE PERFORMED
INCONSISTENTLY IN THIS PATTERN....SO ONLY SO MUCH WEIGHT CAN BE PUT
ON THOSE SOLUTIONS. GIVEN THAT UPPER LEVEL FOCUS APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTH...HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS STILL SEEM
NECESSARY ACROSS THE NORTH. CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL....THE MAIN
DIFFERENCE FOR TODAY IS THAT OBSERVED MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
WEAKER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH SPC
MESOANALYSIS AND AREA RAOBS SHOWING LESS THAN 6.5 C/KM FROM
700-500MB. STILL...WITH VARIABLE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA AND
STRONG HEATING THIS AFTERNOON...MLCAPE VALUES SHOULD APPROACH 1000
J/KG...SO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY STILL BE A THREAT IN THE
STRONGEST STORMS. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE MID 70S TO AROUND
80...GENERALLY WARMEST IN THE SOUTH WHERE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL
BE LEAST. -SMITH

TONIGHT...EXPECT CONVECTION TO SLOWLY WANE WITH LOSS OF HEATING BUT
MAY LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS EAST OF HIGHWAY 1 WHERE LOW-MID
LEVEL CONFLUENCE (THOUGH WEAK) EXPECTED TO PERSIST. WHERE SKIES
CLEAR...EXPECT AREAS OF FOG WITH LOCALLY DENSE FOG PROBABLE. MIN
TEMPS STILL MILD FOR LATE MARCH IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60.

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...

APPEARS BEST FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION/DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES AS MID LEVEL TROUGH EDGES EWD TOWARD THE
COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A DEVELOPING DOWNSLOPE FLOW IN THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT...POTENTIALLY LIMITING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN
THIS REGION. THUS PLAN TO GRADUATE POPS FROM SLIGHT CHANCE WEST (TO
ACCOUNT FOR ANY CONVECTION THAT FIRES ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN THEN
DRIFT SEWD INTO THE WESTERN PIEDMONT) TO SOLID CHANCE (40-50
PERCENT) COASTAL PLAIN.

SEVERE PARAMETERS STILL RATHER WEAK THOUGH A STRONG STORM PROBABLE
IN THE COASTAL PLAIN WITH HAIL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING THE MAIN
SEVERE WEATHER ATTRIBUTES.

TEMPS REMAIN UNSEASONABLY WARM WITH A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR PLACES IN
THE PIEDMONT TO REACH/EXCEED 80 DEGREES DUE TO A DECREASE IN
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE.

THURSDAY NIGHT...CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT IN
THE COASTAL PLAIN AS MID LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES TO THE COAST AND
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NOSES INTO REGION. SHOULD SEE AREAS OF FOG
DEVELOP REGIONWIDE WITH POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG...ESPECIALLY IN THE
COASTAL PLAIN...SANDHILLS AND EASTERN PIEDMONT. MIN TEMPS ONCE AGAIN
UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...

MID/UPPER LOW FROM THE PLAINS/MIDWEST WILL SLOWLY TRANSLATE EASTWARD
ON FRIDAY... ALLOWING THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO SLOWLY SHIFT
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA FOR FRIDAY (WITH
ONLY THE NW IN THE LOW END CHANCE CATEGORY AS THE MID/UPPER RIDGE
SLOWLY SHIFTS TO THE EAST). GIVEN AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL THICKNESS
VALUES IN THE 1390S AND STATISTICAL GUIDANCE SHOWING HIGHS AREAWIDE
IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S... WILL INCREASE HIGH TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO
ACROSS MOST AREAS... RESULTING HIGH TEMPS ON FRIDAY TOPPING OUT IN
THE LOWER TO PERHAPS MID 80S.

WILL RAISE POPS ON FRIDAY NIGHT GIVEN INCREASING LARGE SCALE LIFT AS
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST ALONG WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR A PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING
INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. THIS YIELDS LIKELY POPS FOR THE
NORTHWESTERN/WESTERN PIEDMONT... TO CHANCE ELSEWHERE OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER... THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS APPEARS TO BE ON
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING AS AN ASSOCIATED COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THUS... GIVEN MODELS APPEAR TO
BE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM... WILL RAISE POPS TO LIKELY FOR THE ENTIRE AREA ON SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY EVENING. GIVEN THE INCREASE DEEP LAYER SHEAR (~30-50
KTS) ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR 300-800 J/KG MLCAPE EXPECT WE WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
DEVELOP/MOVE INTO THE AREA... WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SEVERE
STORMS. HOWEVER... QUESTIONS REMAIN IN EXACTLY HOW MUCH SURFACE
HEATING WE WILL SEE ON SATURDAY ALONG WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT.
THUS... WILL KEEP MENTION OF SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR SATURDAY/SATURDAY
EVENING THE SAME IN THE HWO. LOW TEMPS ON SATURDAY MORNING ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO PERHAPS MID 60S. HIGHS ON SATURDAY
WILL BE GREATLY DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND AMOUNT OF
CLOUD COVER. GIVEN LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE... WILL TREND TEMPS DOWN A
DEGREE OR TWO. THIS YIELDS HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE LOWER 70S NW TO THE
UPPER 70S EAST.

THE MAIN SURFACE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE EAST OF THE
AREA BY SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER... THE MID/UPPER LOW
IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION SUNDAY... POTENTIALLY YIELDING
SOME INSTABILITY SHOWERS/STORMS AS MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN.
GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE IMPORTANT WITH
REGARD TO WHERE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO JUST ADVERTISE CHANCE POPS AREAWIDE... WITH
CURRENTLY OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES STANDING THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING
SOME PRECIP. LOWS SUNDAY MORNING RANGING FROM THE LOWER 50S NW TO
THE UPPER 50S EAST. HIGHS SUNDAY GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK... WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER WITH LOWER
DEWPOINTS. EXPECT HIGHS EARLY NEXT WEEK TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S... WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 740 AM WEDNESDAY...

PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ACROSS CENTRAL
NC THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST RISK/GREATEST COVERAGE
OF CONVECTION OCCURRING DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY WILL OCCUR IN VICINITY OF THE SHOWERS
AND STORMS.

OTHERWISE...VARIABLE AVIATION CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WITH MAJORITY
OF THE AREA EXPERIENCING MVFR VISIBILITY THOUGH IFR/LIFR BEING
OBSERVED IN THE FAR NORTHERN AND WESTERN PIEDMONT. THE FOG/STRATUS
SHOULD LIFT AND DISSIPATE LEADING TO HIGH END MVFR/LOW END VFR
CEILINGS IN THE LATE MORNING-EARLY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF
IFR/LIFR FOG AND STRATUS IS EXPECTED EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

CONVECTION EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS AN AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. THERE WILL LIKELY BE
ANOTHER BOUT OF EARLY MORNING IFR FOG/STRATUS.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
CROSS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND ASSOCIATED MVFR
CONDITIONS TO CENTRAL NC LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
NCZ007>010-023-024.

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS/SMITH
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...WSS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

623 AM CDT WED MAR 21 2012

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH FRIDAY
345 AM CDT WED MAR 21 2012

FOCUS IS ON RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD ALONG WITH UNSEASONABLY
WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUING.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A LARGE CLOSED LOW OVER TX
WITH HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. DEEP SOUTHERLY
WARM/MOIST FETCH CONTINUES AHEAD OF THE LOW INTO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION. AS A RESULT...NATIONAL RADAR MOSAIC
SHOWS LARGE CONVEYOR BELT OF SHRA EXTENDING FROM THE LA GULF COAST
AREA NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN IA...THEN TAPERING OFF GOING INTO
NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHEAST MN. MEANWHILE...LOCAL RADAR MOSAIC ALSO
SHOWING FRONTOGENETIC FORCED SHRA ACTIVITY OCCURRING ACROSS THE
ARROWHEAD OF MN/NORTHWEST WI...DOWN THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL MN.
OTHERWISE...EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER IN OUR FORECAST AREA...DRY
AND WARM CONDITIONS PREVAILED WITH TEMPERATURES AT 2 AM STILL IN THE
60S.

21.00Z NCEP MODEL SUITE/GEM/ECMWF/20.21Z SREF ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH HANDLING OF THE CLOSED LOW COMING OUT OF TX AND ITS AFFECT ON
OUR AREA.

MAINTAINED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE CLOSED LOW
LIFTS INTO IL AND CYCLONIC FLOW AFFECTS THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
345 AM CDT WED MAR 21 2012

.AVIATION...TODAY AND TONIGHT
623 AM CDT WED MAR 21 2012

LOW LEVEL SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW BRINGING DRIER AIR IN FROM
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT AT BOTH TAF SITES. HOWEVER...SOME
LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING AT KRST...WHICH AS
OF 11Z HAS BEEN SPREADING NORTH THROUGH EASTERN IOWA. NOT
ANTICIPATING VISIBILITIES DROPPING BELOW VFR WITH THESE SHOWERS...
AND THE SHOWERS SHOULD END AROUND 17-18Z AS THEY LIFT NORTH OF
KRST. THERE EXISTS THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY AT KRST
FOR THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...DUE TO A COLD FRONT MOVING IN.
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ANY ADDITIONAL SHOWERS IN THE
TAF...THOUGH.

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
345 AM CDT WED MAR 21 2012

WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...AJ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ

556 PM EDT WED MAR 21 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST WILL SINK SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE,
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WILL CROSS OUR AREA OVER THE WEEKEND
AND THEN HEAD OFF TO THE EAST LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE IN AND DOMINATE OUR WEATHER
INTO WEDNESDAY. BY LATE WEDNESDAY, LOW PRESSURE, MOVING EAST
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES, AND IT`S ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT, WILL
BE APPROACHING OUR REGION.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
ESTF UPDATE TO ADJUST SHRAS CHANCES, MAINLY TO CUT THEM OFF SOONER
BASED ON 18Z NAM LATEST HRRR AND CURRENT RADAR DEPICTION. THUNDER
GONE AS OUR PREDECESSORS HAD. WE STARTED THE FOG A LITTLE EARLIER
BASED ON A SPOTTER REPORT FROM OCEAN COUNTY. TEMPERATURES AND DEW
POINTS NEEDED VERY FEW ADJUSTMENTS.

THE LOW LEVEL FLOW GRADUALLY BECOMES MORE OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT, BUT
SAID FLOW IS RATHER LIGHT AND THE TRAJECTORY OF THE AIR COMES FROM A
FAIRLY HUMID PLACE. IT DOESN`T SEEM THAT WE GET SCOURED OUT. THERE
ALSO DOESN`T APPEAR TO BE A LOT OF MOISTURE ALOFT MOST PLACES, SO
WHATEVER CLEARING WE GET THIS EVENING IS EXPECTED TO BE FOLLOWED BY
MORE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. WE TOOK A LOOK AT THE MID LEVEL LOW THAT IS
FORECAST TO DRIFT EAST OVERNIGHT AND ADDED SOME LOW CHANCE POPS NEAR
AND EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS. WE AVOIDED ANY MENTION OF THUNDER FOR
NOW.

IF WE GET DECENT RADIATING, THEN THE TEMPERATURES MAY DRIVE DOWN THE
19Z DEW POINTS. ALSO, THERE IS A CHANCE OF SOME MIXING OUT OF SAID
DEW POINTS DURING THE REMAINS OF THE DAY. STILL, THOSE 19Z DEW
POINTS WERE QUITE HIGH, AND SO OUR OVERNIGHT MINS ARE ON THE MILD
SIDE OF GUIDANCE.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
SOME MARGINALLY DRIER AIR IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA JUST
ABOVE THE SURFACE AS THE MID LEVEL LOW OPENS AND CONTINUES EAST
SLOWLY, AND THAT MAY ALLOW FOR MORE MIXING AND SUNSHINE ON THURSDAY
THAN WE HAD TODAY (ESPECIALLY AS ONE MOVES NORTHWEST THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA). IT ALSO MAY ALLOW EXPECTED LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO
DISSIPATE MORE QUICKLY. THE SURFACE FLOW LOOKS SOUTH-SOUTHWEST, AND
THAT IS NOT A PARTICULARLY DRY FLOW. OUR FORECAST MAXES ARE
OPTIMISTIC ABOUT US MIXING UP TO H925, AND IF WE DON`T, THEN THEY
WOULD BE TOO HIGH. WE JUST CARRY SOME LOW CHANCE POPS FAR SOUTHEAST
OUT OF RESPECT FOR THE MID LEVEL LOW.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A BERMUDA TYPE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM, OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST,
WILL CONTINUE TO SINK SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK
BACKDOOR FRONTAL ZONE COULD DROP SOUTH ACROSS OUR REGION LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE ONLY EFFECT THIS MIGHT HAVE IS
TO BRIEFLY TURN THE WINDS TO A NORTHWEST DIRECTION. THIS COULD
HELP INHIBIT DENSE FOG FROM FORMING THURSDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE,
OUR WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE. EVEN WITH MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES, LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE 50S. FRIDAY COULD TURN OUT TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK,
WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS
WILL BE COASTAL SECTIONS, WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S. WE`LL THEN TURN OUT ATTENTION TO LOW PRESSURE
PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST. THE LEADING EDGE OF MOISTURE, RIDING
OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM, COULD TOUCH OFF A WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWER OR TWO LATE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT, MAINLY IN OUR
NORTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS. THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION
WITH THE LOW WILL OCCUR LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE
LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES JUST TO OUR SOUTH.
OUR VERY WARM STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL BE COMING TO AN END
SATURDAY AS SOUTHEAST WINDS USHER IN PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL ONLY BE ON
THE MID 50S TO MID 60S. SUNDAY COULD TURN OUT TO BE EVEN
COOLER WITH CLOUDS, RAIN AND EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS. HIGHS
ON SUNDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE MAINLY IN THE 50S, EXCEPT
POSSIBLY INTO THE LOWER 60S OVER PORTIONS OF THE DELMARVA.
THE LOW WILL EXIT TO THE EAST LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT, ALTHOUGH
ONE OR TWO COULD LINGER ALONG OUR SOUTHERN COASTAL AREAS UNTIL
SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE
INTO OUR AREA BRINGING A RETURN TO FAIR WEATHER LATER MONDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL RUN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
WITH READINGS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AND MAINLY IN THE 60S ON WEDNESDAY. BY LATE WEDNESDAY, LOW
PRESSURE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES, AND IT`S
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT, WILL BE APPROACHING OUR AREA. THIS COULD
TOUCH OFF A FEW SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST.

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THE CLOUDS MAY SCATTER FOR A FEW HOURS DURING THE EVENING, BUT
THEN WE FORECAST IFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP IN STRATUS AND FOG AND
TO LAST THROUGH DAYBREAK THURSDAY. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO
THE TAF SITES DURING THE MORNING NORTHWEST, BY NOON OVER THE
DELAWARE RIVER VALLEY, AND DURING THE AFTERNOON SOUTHEAST. WINDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE LIGHT. THEY SHOULD DEVELOP A SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT ON THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...
COULD BE SOME LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FOG AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING, BUT WITH THE FLOW BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY,
DON`T EXPECT CIGS/VSBYS TO BE AS LOW OR AS WIDESPREAD AS THE PAST
FEW NIGHTS. THE MAIN WEATHER MAKER DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BE
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT IS FORECAST TO PUSH IN FROM THE WEST.
IT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION JUST TO OUR
SOUTH SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AND THEN EXIT OFF TO THE EAST LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN/SHOWERS/FOG
WITH REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN AS THE LOW
PULLS OFF TO THE EAST LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

.MARINE...
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS ARE FORECAST OVER THE WATERS THROUGH
THURSDAY. THEY SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT, ALTHOUGH THEY MAY START TO
INCREASE INTO THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE LATER THURSDAY. SEAS ALSO ARE
FORECAST TO BE BENIGN.

OUTLOOK...
WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. SW WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL BRIEFLY SWING AROUND TO NW AND N FRIDAY MORNING, AS A WEAK
BACKDOOR FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE WATERS. WINDS WILL THEN BECOME
NE TO E FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAIN E`RLY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. THE LOW
WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. IT WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT
MOVES OVER THE OCEAN WATERS AND EXITS OFF TO THE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN,
WHICH, IN TURN, WILL CAUSE WINDS AND SEAS TO INCREASE. IT APPEARS
THAT ADVISORIES/WARNINGS WILL BE NECESSARY SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPW
NEAR TERM...DELISI/GIGI
SHORT TERM...DELISI
LONG TERM...RPW
AVIATION...DELISI/RPW
MARINE...DELISI/RPW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA

157 PM EDT WED MAR 21 2012

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1156 AM EDT WED MAR 21 2012/

UPDATE...

TDP

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 743 AM EDT WED MAR 21 2012/

CLIMATE...

RECORDS FOR 03-21

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
LINGERING MVFR CIGS WILL LIFT SOON WITH VFR CONDS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER SE AND E GA THIS AFTERNOON. MAIN
CONCERN WILL BE MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING 04-06Z...WITH IFR AND PSBL
LIFR CIGS AND FOG EXPTD EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AT ALL TAF SITES.
CONVECTION CHANCES ALSO INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 18Z
FRIDAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON WINDS...MEDIUM ON TIMING OF CONVECTION...VSBY AND IFR
CIGS.

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DODGE CITY KS

1235 PM CDT WED MAR 21 2012

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 18Z TAFS...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1039 AM CDT WED MAR 21 2012

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 256 AM CDT WED MAR 21 2012

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT WED MAR 21 2012

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT WED MAR 21 2012

RAIN SHOWERS AND LOW CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE THE DDC,
GCK, AND HYS TERMINALS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND INTO
TONIGHT. PREVAILING CEILING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AT DDC AND GCK
WILL BE RIGHT AT OR JUST ABOVE IFR THRESHOLD AT 1000 TO 1500 FEET
OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS...BUT IN SHOWERS THE VISIBILITY WILL FALL TO 2
MILES OR BELOW AT TIMES WITH CEILING A FEW HUNDRED FEET. DURING
THE NIGHT TONIGHT...PREVAILING FLIGHT CATEGORY IS EXPECTED TO BE
WELL INTO THE IFR RANGE AND PERHAPS LIFR AT TIMES..ESPECIALLY
09-13Z THURSDAY MORNING.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 49 41 53 36 / 100 100 70 0
GCK 47 39 55 34 / 100 100 50 0
EHA 44 39 54 37 / 80 80 60 0
LBL 48 39 55 37 / 100 90 70 0
HYS 53 41 53 35 / 90 100 50 0
P28 59 43 56 38 / 90 90 80 0

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...UMSCHEID
SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM....RUSSELL
AVIATION...UMSCHEID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

553 PM EDT WED MAR 21 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE THE IMPRESSIVE STRETCH OF
UNSEASONABLY MILD EARLY SPRING WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK. A DEEP MID-LEVEL CYCLONE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PASSING
TO THE SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA WILL BRING RAIN AND COOLER TEMPERATURES
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
STRATUS CONTINUES TO HOLD TOUGH ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PA THIS
AFTERNOON AS SERLY FLOW TRANSPORTS MOISTURE NWD. CENTER OF UPPER
LOW HAS SHIFTED SOUTH AND THE INSTABILITY SHOULD STAY TO THE SOUTH
OF THE REGION SO ANY CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE EVEN LESS IN
COVERAGE THAN YESTERDAY...WHICH WAS VERY ISOLATED...AND CONFINED
TO THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. EVENTUAL CLEAR SKIES TOWARD EVENING WILL
ALLOW FOR REDEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD FOG AND STRATUS.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE DOMINATED BY AN
ANOMALOUS H5 RIDGE...BUT THIS FEATURE WILL GRADUALLY LOSE ITS
GRIP ON THE REGION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE PESKY/WEAK UPPER
AIR DISTURBANCE MEANDERING SWD THRU VA UNDER THE RIDGE WILL SLIDE
OFF THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLC/NC COAST ON THURSDAY. A S/W TROUGH
CROSSING NRN QUE WILL SEND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SWD THRU THE
NORTHEAST STATES ON FRIDAY...WHILE A DEEP MID-LEVEL CYCLONE/CLOSED
H5 LOW MOVES SLOWLY EWD FROM THE PLAINS THROUGH THE MID MS VLY BY
SATURDAY MORNING. BOTH OF THESE FEATURES WILL GRADUALLY LOWER
HEIGHTS AND HELP BREAK DOWN THE HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE IN THE
EAST. THE BULK OF THE PERIOD WILL BE DRY AND VERY WARM FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S/20+ DEGREES ABV AVG. AN
ISOLD SHOWER WILL BE PSBL OVR THE N-CENTRAL MTNS AND SRN POCONOS
ON FRI AFTN NEAR THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT...WITH THE THREAT OF
MORE WIDESPREAD RAINS INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST FRI NGT INTO
EARLY SAT AS THE CLOSED LOW SHIFTS EWD INTO THE MID OH VLY. HPC QPF
LEANED TWD A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND UKMET SOLNS AND THEREFORE
INCREASED POPS TO LKLY CATG IN THE WEST DURING THE LAST 6HR PD FM
06-12Z SAT.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS REMAIN IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. LARGE
UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL U.S. WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD
INTO OHIO VALLEY BY SAT AS SFC RIDGE OVER PA GRADUALLY BREAKS
DOWN. SYSTEM REMAINS VERY OCCLUDED AND BEGINS TO OPEN UP SAT NIGHT
AS BROAD UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS TO OUR NORTH...DIRECTING CENTER OF
THE LOW SOUTHEASTWARD. BOTH ECMWF AND GFS FORECAST LOW TO SINK
INTO NORTH CAROLINA ON SUNDAY...BEFORE TURNING BACK NORTHEASTWARD
OFF THE EAST COAST.

VERY MILD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT /WITH
READINGS 20-25F ABOVE NORMAL/ BEFORE UPPER LOW BRINGS IN SOME
COOLER AIR FOR THE WEEKEND...DROPPING TEMPS BACK TO ONLY ABOUT 5F
ABOVE NORMAL. COOLER TEMPS ALOFT WILL BRING INCREASE IN SHOWER
CHANCES ON FRI...WITH LIKELY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ON TAP FOR
SAT INTO SUN AS UPPER LOW SLIDES BY. PRECIP CHANCES DROP QUICKLY
FROM NW-SE SUN NIGHT.

BY MON...DIFFS IN GUIDANCE BECOME APPARENT WITH THE ECMWF
CONTINUING MUCH STRONGER WITH POST-SYSTEM TROUGH THAN THE
REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE...WHICH MAY BRING A BIT MORE OF A
COOL-DOWN THAN PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED - THOUGH TEMPS STILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL. AS RIDGE BUILDS IN MON-TUE...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL
BE THE RULE. NOTICEABLY COOLER MORNINGS AS WELL...WITH TUE MORNING
LOOKING LIKE THE CHILLIEST AS LOWS DIP INTO THE 30S AND LOWER 40S.
BUT WARMER SW FLOW RETURNS AS HEIGHTS BUILD AHEAD OF A SYSTEM FOR
LATE WEEK...PUSHING TEMPS BACK WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN VERY STUBBORN TO LIFT OR SCATTER THIS
AFTERNOON. LATEST VIZ SHOTS SHOW THE NORTHERN EDGE MELTING AWAY
INTO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...BUT THE RUC BRINGS THIS CLEARING TO
A HALT BETWEEN 6 AND 8 PM....BEFORE SURGING BACK NORTH OVERNIGHT.
ANOTHER ROUND OF STRATUS AND PATCHY DENSE FOG ARE IN STORE
TONIGHT...INTO TOMORROW...EXPECT IFR AND LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS BTWN
09Z-14Z TOMORROW MORNING AT MOST TAF SITES.

OUTLOOK...

THU...AM LOW CLOUDS/FOG PSBL. VFR AFTERNOON
FRI...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
FRI NIGHT-MON...MVFR/IFR POSS IN SHRA/TSRA.

.EQUIPMENT...
RADAR OUTAGE DUE TO ONGOING DUAL-POL INSTALLATION.

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...GARTNER/STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...GARTNER
SHORT TERM...GARTNER/STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...RXR/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE/GARTNER
EQUIPMENT...LA CORTE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

1241 PM CDT WED MAR 21 2012

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH FRIDAY
345 AM CDT WED MAR 21 2012

FOCUS IS ON RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD ALONG WITH UNSEASONABLY
WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUING.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A LARGE CLOSED LOW OVER TX
WITH HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. DEEP SOUTHERLY
WARM/MOIST FETCH CONTINUES AHEAD OF THE LOW INTO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION. AS A RESULT...NATIONAL RADAR MOSAIC
SHOWS LARGE CONVEYOR BELT OF SHRA EXTENDING FROM THE LA GULF COAST
AREA NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN IA...THEN TAPERING OFF GOING INTO
NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHEAST MN. MEANWHILE...LOCAL RADAR MOSAIC ALSO
SHOWING FRONTOGENETIC FORCED SHRA ACTIVITY OCCURRING ACROSS THE
ARROWHEAD OF MN/NORTHWEST WI...DOWN THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL MN.
OTHERWISE...EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER IN OUR FORECAST AREA...DRY
AND WARM CONDITIONS PREVAILED WITH TEMPERATURES AT 2 AM STILL IN THE
60S.

21.00Z NCEP MODEL SUITE/GEM/ECMWF/20.21Z SREF ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH HANDLING OF THE CLOSED LOW COMING OUT OF TX AND ITS AFFECT ON
OUR AREA.

MAINTAINED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE CLOSED LOW
LIFTS INTO IL AND CYCLONIC FLOW AFFECTS THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
345 AM CDT WED MAR 21 2012

.AVIATION...THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY
1240 PM CDT WED MAR 21 2012

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AS THIS OCCURS...THE MVFR CEILINGS WILL PUSH OFF TO THE WEST
OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL LEAVE BOTH TAF SITES VFR THROUGH TONIGHT.
AS SOME FRONTOGENESIS TO THE NORTH OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
MOVES INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY MORNING...CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY
BECOME MVFR AND SHOWERS WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA.

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
345 AM CDT WED MAR 21 2012

WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...BOYNE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI

1222 PM CDT WED MAR 21 2012

.UPDATE...
INHERITED FCST PACKAGE FOR TODAY PERIOD APPEARS ON TRACK...WITH FEW
CHANGES MADE. MAX TEMPS WERE BUMPED UP A FEW DEGREES GIVEN HOW DEEP
MIXING WILL BE. RUC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS MIXING INLAND UP TO 825 HPA
AT SOME SPOTS. THIS...UPSTREAM CONDITIONS...AND LACK OF CLOUD COVER
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO EXCEED...IF NOT REACH...YESTERDAY/S
HIGHS...WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE LOW 80S AND HIGH 70S EXCEPT NEAR
THE SHORELINE. GIVEN LATEST VIS LOOP...CLOUDS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED
TO GREATLY AFFECT TEMP FCST. CLOUD SHIELD SHOULD STAY OFF TO THE
WEST OF CWA THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH FEW-SCT CIRRUS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION.

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...
FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO YESTERDAY.
LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY HAS NOT YET PUSHED THROUGH MKE/ENW AND IF
SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE THE LAKE BREEZE WILL BE HELD OFF UNTIL
LATE AFTERNOON...PERHAPS AROUND 2200Z. SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO
EXACT TIMING SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR AMENDMENTS. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED UNTIL JUST BEFORE SUNRISE THURSDAY WHEN LIGHT FOG MAY
FORM. CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AFTER THAT TIME AS WELL...BUT ANY SHOWERS
WILL HAVE TO OVERCOME DRY LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE...SO NOT A LOT OF
CONFIDENCE.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 AM CDT WED MAR 21 2012/

SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

PERSISTENCE PROBABLY THE BEST APPROACH FOR TODAY. LOW LEVEL WINDS
AND THERMAL STRUCTURE LOOK VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. MAIN
DIFFERENCE WOULD BE MORE HIGH CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AS THE
WARM AND MOIST CONVEYOR BELT REMAINS JUST TO OUR WEST. THE FORECAST
AREA CONTINUES TO SIT UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS THAT HAS BEEN
STRENGTHENED BY THE DEEPENING OF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. MANY OF THE MODELS EJECT SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY UP THROUGH
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY/FAR WRN WI TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS IS
INTO THE RIDGE AXIS AND MOISTURE LOOKS QUITE LOW THROUGH THE COLUMN.
IN FACT...WE SHOULD SEE DEWPOINTS MIX OUT INTO THE LOWER 50S AGAIN
THIS AFTERNOON. PROBABLY NOT AS LOW AS YESTERDAY WITH SOME HIGHER
DEWPOINT AIR ADVECTING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST. WOULD
EXPECT THESE SHORT WAVES TO ONLY BRING SOME MID OR HIGH CLOUDS AT
TIMES AND ANY PRECIP SHOULD STAY WELL WEST OF THE AREA. STEEP LAPSE
RATES MIXING UP TO ABOUT 825MB WILL AGAIN RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON.

TEMPS NEAR THE LAKE REMAIN A CHALLENGE. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL MAKE
THE SHEBOYGAN AREA COOLER AGAIN GIVEN THE LAKE SHORE ORIENTATION UP
THERE. FARTHER TO THE SOUTH...ANY COOLING DUE TO THE LAKE WILL BE
LIMITED TO THOSE AREAS VERY CLOSE TO THE SHORE. IT COULD BE UPPER
40S AT THE BEACH AND 80 ABOUT 3 MILES INLAND.

THE QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AND HAVE PULLED THE
PRECIP MENTION ACROSS THE FAR WEST.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.

THAT UPPER LOW MEANDERING ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. IS PROGGED TO BE
CENTERED OVER THE OKLAHOMA/KANSAS BORDER ON THURSDAY. PRECIP ON THE
NORTHERN WRAP-AROUND REGION OF THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO PUSH
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL WI ON THU. MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE TIMING OF THE
MAIN PRECIP GETTING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL WI...SO DELAYED LIKELIES IN
SW FORECAST AREA UNTIL THU AFTERNOON. WEAK SHORTWAVES ROTATING
AROUND THE UPPER LOW SHOULD SUPPORT NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY THU NIGHT.

WEAK CAPE AND SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WITH
THESE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW...BUT CANNOT RULE THEM
OUT COMPLETELY GIVEN THE COLDER 500MB TEMPS LENDING TO STEEPER MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SO KEPT MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER.

BIG UNCERTAINTY FOR MAX TEMPS. WITH CLOUDS...PRECIP AND SOUTHEAST
FLOW ACROSS THE AREA...MAX TEMPS WILL BE LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS
COUPLE OF DAYS. HOWEVER...EXPECTING A DELAY IN THE PRECIP UNTIL THE
AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY LATER...SO RAISED THE TEMPS INTO THE MID 70S
IN PARTS OF SOUTHEAST WI.

LONG TERM...

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.

THE UPPER LOW WILL TAKE ITS TIME DRIFTING EASTWARD...SO THERE WILL
BE RAIN SHOWER CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHERN WI DURING THIS PERIOD. KEPT
MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER FOR FRIDAY WITH WEAK INSTABILITY PRESENT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER OVER THE WEEKEND WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIP
IN THE AREA. HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. THIS COULD BE
LOW DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH SUN CAN BREAK THROUGH.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.

UPPER RIDGE WILL NOSE INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER THAN THIS PAST WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND UPPER 50S
NEAR THE LAKESHORE...WHICH IS STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S OR BACK INTO
THE 70S TOWARD WESTERN WI WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE. EASTERLY FLOW OFF
LAKE MICHIGAN WILL KEEP THE LAKESHORE COOL AND A TIGHT TEMP GRADIENT
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

DRY WEATHER EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH DECREASING CLOUDS AS
THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS EASTWARD.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...LOW.

ECMWF AND GFS BEGIN TO DIFFER IN THE EXTENDED. THE ECMWF KEEPS A
500MB LOW STATIONED OVER THE EAST COAST MON NIGHT WHILE THE GFS
MOVED IT OFF THE COAST. BOTH MODELS HAVE A RIDGE OVER THE CENTER OF
THE COUNTRY AND ANOTHER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE WEST. THIS
DIFFERENCE SPELLS TWO POSSIBILITIES FOR MAX TEMPS...EITHER IN THE
UPPER 60S OR UPPER 70S/80S. TOOK A BLEND OF MODELS AND WENT WITH
LOWER 70S INLAND FROM THE LAKE FOR NOW. THERE COULD BE SOME WARM AIR
ADVECTION SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS PERIOD. A TRAILING FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR TSTORMS TUE NIGHT/WED. THE
TIMING OF THIS FRONT IS SLOWING DOWN WITH THE LATEST MODEL RUNS.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL CARRY LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR UNTIL WE
BEGIN TO MIX DEEPER INTO THE ATMOSPHERE BY ABOUT MID MORNING. LOOK
FOR GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AGAIN...POSSIBLY TURNING SOUTHEAST AT
KMKE/KENW DUE TO THE LAKE BREEZE.

MARINE...DESPITE THE SOMEWHAT STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED OVER
THE LAND...THE COOLER LAKE AIR WILL CREATE A STABILIZING INVERSION.
THIS WILL PREVENT THE WINDS FROM REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
OVER THE WATER.

FIRE WEATHER...ANOTHER DAY OF STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING IS
ANTICIPATED TODAY. HOWEVER PERSISTENT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO USHER IN SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPTS FROM THE
CENTRAL GTLAKES AND NRN OH VALLEY FOR THIS. HENCE NOT EXPECTING AS
LOW RH...BUT MAY DROP AS LOW AS 30 TO 35 PERCENT. ENERGY RELEASE
COMPONENT FOR RAWS SITES EXPECTED TO REMAIN LESS THAN 40 TODAY SO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE APPROACHED...BUT
NOT REACHED AT THIS TIME.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...ET/WIMBERLEY
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DAVIS
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MRC