Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 03/20/12
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1139 AM MDT SUN MAR 18 2012
.AVIATION...SOUTH WINDS INCREASING ABOUT AS EXPECTED...WITH GUSTS
OVER 40 KNOTS AND BLOWING DUST ALREADY AT KALS. KPUB/KCOS WINDS A
LITTLE SLOWER TO RAMP UP AS CLOUDS HAVE LIMITED MIXING LATE THIS
MORNING...THOUGH LATEST OBS SHOW GUSTS BEGINNING TO MAKE AN
APPEARANCE. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...S/SW WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE ALL AREAS...WITH GUSTS OVER 40 KNOTS AT THE
TAF SITES. BLOWING DUST WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE PERIODS OF MAINLY
MVFR VISIBILITY AT KALS THROUGH 00Z...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME
REDUCED VIS AT TIMES SPREADING ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AFTER
20Z. SNOW HAS BEEN SLOW TO GET GOING OVER THE MOUNTAINS...THOUGH
EXPECT IT TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY WITH IFR CONDITIONS BECOMING
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY 22Z. OVERNIGHT...WINDS
WILL SLOWLY DECREASE AFTER 06Z...WHILE -SHSN CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
AREAS OF IFR CONDITIONS MOST MOUNTAIN AREAS THROUGH 12Z. ON
MONDAY...STILL POTENTIAL FOR S/SW WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS AT THE
TAF SITES...MAINLY IN THE 15Z-20Z PERIOD...WHILE MOUNTAINS ALONG
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE REMAIN IFR DUE TO CLOUDS AND -SN.
--PETERSEN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 504 AM MDT SUN MAR 18 2012/
SHORT TERM...
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
..HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED FOR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...WITH HIGH WINDS
AND VOLATILE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS...
LOTS OF HIGHLIGHTS TO TALK ABOUT IN THE SHORT TERM. UPPER TROF
ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD WITH NORTH SOUTH
ORIENTED UPPER JET ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROF AND TRANSLATING ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CO DURING THE AFTERNOON. QUESTION WILL BE HOW
STRONG WINDS WILL GET ACROSS THE REGION. SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS ACROSS THE PLAINS IN RESPONSE...AND HRRR AND LOCAL WRF
SUGGEST SUSTAINED SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 40 MPH SHOULD BE
ACHIEVABLE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. WITH DEEP MIXING...THERE WILL
BE THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO AROUND 60 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THERE IS STILL SOME CONCERN THAT INCREASING HIGH CLOUDINESS MAY
LIMIT THE GUST POTENTIAL SOME...HOWEVER...SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS
SHOULD MEET HIGH WIND THRESHOLDS OF 40 MPH. THUS WILL UPGRADE THE
WATCH TO THE WARNING...AND WILL ALSO INCLUDE THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS OF WESTERN LAS ANIMAS AND NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTIES AS WELL.
HIGH RES MODELS SUGGEST THAT SOUTHERN EL PASO AND PUEBLO COUNTIES
WILL COME UP JUST SHY OF HIGH WIND CRITERIA...SO WILL KEEP THEM OUT
OF THE WARNING NOW. HOWEVER...THIS AREA WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY
FOR FURTHER EXPANSION IF NECESSARY. WITH LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES...THESE CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN VOLATILE CONDITIONS FOR
FIRE SPREAD ACROSS ALL OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS. RED FLAG WARNING
HAS ALREADY BEEN ISSUED AND STILL LOOKS ON TRACK. NEEDLESS TO
SAY...ANY WILD FIRES TODAY COULD QUICKLY SPREAD OUT OF CONTROL DUE
TO THE VERY STRONG WINDS. AREAS OF BLOWING DUST WILL ALSO BE A
CONCERN...WHICH COULD REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO NEAR ZERO AT
TIMES...AND STRONG CROSS WINDS COULD POSE HAZARDS TO THOSE ON NORTH
SOUTH ORIENTED ROADWAYS THIS AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER AREA WITH POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS TODAY WILL BE ACROSS
THE SAN LUIS VALLEY. HAVE INCLUDED SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF
THE VALLEY IN THE HIGH WIND WARNING AS WELL. AS MOISTURE INCREASE
ACROSS THE AREA...HIGH BASED SHOWERS/-TSRA MAY HELP TRANSPORT SOME OF
THESE STRONG WINDS ALOFT TO THE SURFACE...RESULT IN GUSTS TO AROUND
60 MPH.
MEANWHILE...SNOW SHOULD RAMP UP EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
EASTERN SAN JUANS...THEN SPREADING INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE REGION BY AFTERNOON...AND INTO THE SANGRE DE
CRISTO MOUNTAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. HEAVIEST
ACCUMULATIONS WILL FALL ACROSS THE EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS WHERE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PROVIDE THE MOST FAVORABLE
OROGRAPHICS. TEN TO 20 INCHES OF SNOW WILL POSSIBLE ACROSS THIS
REGION...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS OF 5-10 INCHES ACROSS THE LA
GARITAS...AND THE SAWATCH RANGE AND CREST OF THE SANGRES. WITH
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES...COULD EVEN SEE SOME ISOLATED EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...AND HAVE INCLUDED -TS IN THE
GRIDS. THIS WILL RESULT IN LOCALLY INTENSE SNOWFALL RATES AT TIMES.
FINALLY...MODELS KEEP THE DRY LINE JUST EAST OF THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...THOUGH LATEST MODEL RUNS DO LOOK A TAD
FARTHER WEST...ESPECIALLY LATER TONIGHT. DEEP MOISTURE AND HIGHER
CAPE VALUES APPEAR TO STAY IN KANSAS...SO DON`T THINK WE WILL BE
DEALING WITH ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL. BUT DID MAINTAIN SOME ISOLATED
POPS ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN BORDER AREAS THIS EVENING. -KT
LONG TERM...
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
MODELS IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT TONIGHT IN REGARDS TO THE
EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. ALL MODELS NOW BRING THE
MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND CLOSE A
LOW OFF ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO...INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON. SNOW WILL BE ONGOING MONDAY MORNING FOR THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW EXPECTED OVER THE SAN
JUAN RANGE. LIGHTER SNOWFALL WILL ALSO CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AND THE SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGE. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE
PLAINS LOOKS TO BE FIRE WEATHER. HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN LOW
HEADING INTO MONDAY WITH WIDESPREAD READINGS IN THE LOWER TEENS.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE PLAINS...AHEAD OF THE UPPER SYSTEM PASSING
TO THE SOUTH. WINDS WILL LIKELY GUST IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE
OVER THIS AREA. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH THE LOW
HUMIDITY VALUES TO PRODUCE DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
MODELS IN LINE WITH A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH OVER THE PALMER
DIVIDE BY 00Z TUES AND CONTINUING SOUTH INTO NEW MEXICO BY TUESDAY
MORNING. MODELS PRINTING OUT SOME LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW FOR THE
PALMER DIVIDE BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON...SPREADING SOUTH THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. GIVEN THE NORTHERLY
WINDS THROUGH THE MID LEVELS...THINK THE AREAS TO SEE PRECIP WILL
BE THE PALMER DIVIDE...LEE SLOPES OF THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND THE
RATON MESA. ALL MODELS FOLLOW THIS PROGRESSION WITH PRECIP COMING
TO AN END NORTH TO SOUTH TUESDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.
SNOW WILL ALSO DECREASE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING WITH MINOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS.
BEYOND TUESDAY...MODELS SLOW TO MOVE THE UPPER LOW OUT OF TEXAS
AND INTO THE OZARKS. HOWEVER MODELS HAVE CONVERGED ON A MORE
EASTERLY SOLUTION WITH RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE ROCKIES ON
WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THE NEAR STATIONARY PATTERN...EXPECT WARMING
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION WITH 70S ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH
THE LAST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS FORECAST TO
INCREASE LATE WEEK WITH ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS RETURNING
TO THE AREA. 88
AVIATION...
MTN OBSCURATIONS WITH WIDESPREAD SNOW WILL SPREAD INTO THE CONTDVD
REGION THIS MORNING...CONTINUING THE EVENING WITH IFR TO LIFR
CIGS/VIS. MEANWHILE...WINDS WILL INCREASE AT THE TAF SITES WHERE A
PERIOD OF SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25-35 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 40-45 KTS WILL
CAN BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL LOWER AT KALS DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR -SHRA/-TSRA. AT THIS
POINT...THINK CIGS WILL REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY. SAME STORY FOR
KCOS WITH VFR CIGS MOVING IN DURING THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH THINK ANY
-SHRA SHOULD STAY WEST OF THE TERMINAL OVER THE PIKES PEAK AREA.
WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE WEST DURING THE EARLY EVENING AS THE
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WITH WINDS DECREASING...THOUGH STILL
REMAINING IN THE 15-25KT RANGE AT TIMES. -KT
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ070-071-084-
088-089-093>099.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ222-226>237.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR COZ073-
075.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT MONDAY FOR COZ060-066-067.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT MONDAY FOR COZ068.
&&
$$
10/27
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
504 AM MDT SUN MAR 18 2012
.SHORT TERM...
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
...HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED FOR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...WITH HIGH WINDS
AND VOLATILE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS...
LOTS OF HIGHLIGHTS TO TALK ABOUT IN THE SHORT TERM. UPPER TROF
ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD WITH NORTH SOUTH
ORIENTED UPPER JET ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROF AND TRANSLATING ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CO DURING THE AFTERNOON. QUESTION WILL BE HOW
STRONG WINDS WILL GET ACROSS THE REGION. SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS ACROSS THE PLAINS IN RESPONSE...AND HRRR AND LOCAL WRF
SUGGEST SUSTAINED SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 40 MPH SHOULD BE
ACHIEVABLE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. WITH DEEP MIXING...THERE WILL
BE THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO AROUND 60 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THERE IS STILL SOME CONCERN THAT INCREASING HIGH CLOUDINESS MAY
LIMIT THE GUST POTENTIAL SOME...HOWEVER...SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS
SHOULD MEET HIGH WIND THRESHOLDS OF 40 MPH. THUS WILL UPGRADE THE
WATCH TO THE WARNING...AND WILL ALSO INCLUDE THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS OF WESTERN LAS ANIMAS AND NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTIES AS WELL.
HIGH RES MODELS SUGGEST THAT SOUTHERN EL PASO AND PUEBLO COUNTIES
WILL COME UP JUST SHY OF HIGH WIND CRITERIA...SO WILL KEEP THEM OUT
OF THE WARNING NOW. HOWEVER...THIS AREA WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY
FOR FURTHER EXPANSION IF NECESSARY. WITH LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES...THESE CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN VOLATILE CONDITIONS FOR
FIRE SPREAD ACROSS ALL OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS. RED FLAG WARNING
HAS ALREADY BEEN ISSUED AND STILL LOOKS ON TRACK. NEEDLESS TO
SAY...ANY WILD FIRES TODAY COULD QUICKLY SPREAD OUT OF CONTROL DUE
TO THE VERY STRONG WINDS. AREAS OF BLOWING DUST WILL ALSO BE A
CONCERN...WHICH COULD REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO NEAR ZERO AT
TIMES...AND STRONG CROSS WINDS COULD POSE HAZARDS TO THOSE ON NORTH
SOUTH ORIENTED ROADWAYS THIS AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER AREA WITH POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS TODAY WILL BE ACROSS
THE SAN LUIS VALLEY. HAVE INCLUDED SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF
THE VALLEY IN THE HIGH WIND WARNING AS WELL. AS MOISTURE INCREASE
ACROSS THE AREA...HIGH BASED SHOWERS/-TSRA MAY HELP TRANSPORT SOME OF
THESE STRONG WINDS ALOFT TO THE SURFACE...RESULT IN GUSTS TO AROUND
60 MPH.
MEANWHILE...SNOW SHOULD RAMP UP EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
EASTERN SAN JUANS...THEN SPREADING INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE REGION BY AFTERNOON...AND INTO THE SANGRE DE
CRISTO MOUNTAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. HEAVIEST
ACCUMULATIONS WILL FALL ACROSS THE EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS WHERE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PROVIDE THE MOST FAVORABLE
OROGRAPHICS. TEN TO 20 INCHES OF SNOW WILL POSSIBLE ACROSS THIS
REGION...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS OF 5-10 INCHES ACROSS THE LA
GARITAS...AND THE SAWATCH RANGE AND CREST OF THE SANGRES. WITH
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES...COULD EVEN SEE SOME ISOLATED EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...AND HAVE INCLUDED -TS IN THE
GRIDS. THIS WILL RESULT IN LOCALLY INTENSE SNOWFALL RATES AT TIMES.
FINALLY...MODELS KEEP THE DRY LINE JUST EAST OF THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...THOUGH LATEST MODEL RUNS DO LOOK A TAD
FARTHER WEST...ESPECIALLY LATER TONIGHT. DEEP MOISTURE AND HIGHER
CAPE VALUES APPEAR TO STAY IN KANSAS...SO DON`T THINK WE WILL BE
DEALING WITH ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL. BUT DID MAINTAIN SOME ISOLATED
POPS ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN BORDER AREAS THIS EVENING. -KT
.LONG TERM...
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
MODELS IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT TONIGHT IN REGARDS TO THE
EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. ALL MODELS NOW BRING THE
MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND CLOSE A
LOW OFF ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO...INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON. SNOW WILL BE ONGOING MONDAY MORNING FOR THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW EXPECTED OVER THE SAN
JUAN RANGE. LIGHTER SNOWFALL WILL ALSO CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AND THE SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGE. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE
PLAINS LOOKS TO BE FIRE WEATHER. HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN LOW
HEADING INTO MONDAY WITH WIDESPREAD READINGS IN THE LOWER TEENS.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE PLAINS...AHEAD OF THE UPPER SYSTEM PASSING
TO THE SOUTH. WINDS WILL LIKELY GUST IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE
OVER THIS AREA. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH THE LOW
HUMIDITY VALUES TO PRODUCE DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
MODELS IN LINE WITH A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH OVER THE PALMER
DIVIDE BY 00Z TUES AND CONTINUING SOUTH INTO NEW MEXICO BY TUESDAY
MORNING. MODELS PRINTING OUT SOME LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW FOR THE
PALMER DIVIDE BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON...SPREADING SOUTH THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. GIVEN THE NORTHERLY
WINDS THROUGH THE MID LEVELS...THINK THE AREAS TO SEE PRECIP WILL
BE THE PALMER DIVIDE...LEE SLOPES OF THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND THE
RATON MESA. ALL MODELS FOLLOW THIS PROGRESSION WITH PRECIP COMING
TO AN END NORTH TO SOUTH TUESDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.
SNOW WILL ALSO DECREASE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING WITH MINOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS.
BEYOND TUESDAY...MODELS SLOW TO MOVE THE UPPER LOW OUT OF TEXAS
AND INTO THE OZARKS. HOWEVER MODELS HAVE CONVERGED ON A MORE
EASTERLY SOLUTION WITH RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE ROCKIES ON
WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THE NEAR STATIONARY PATTERN...EXPECT WARMING
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION WITH 70S ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH
THE LAST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS FORECAST TO
INCREASE LATE WEEK WITH ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS RETURNING
TO THE AREA. MOZLEY
&&
.AVIATION...
MTN OBSCURATIONS WITH WIDESPREAD SNOW WILL SPREAD INTO THE CONTDVD
REGION THIS MORNING...CONTINUING THE EVENING WITH IFR TO LIFR
CIGS/VIS. MEANWHILE...WINDS WILL INCREASE AT THE TAF SITES WHERE A
PERIOD OF SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25-35 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 40-45 KTS WILL
CAN BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL LOWER AT KALS DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR -SHRA/-TSRA. AT THIS
POINT...THINK CIGS WILL REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY. SAME STORY FOR
KCOS WITH VFR CIGS MOVING IN DURING THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH THINK ANY
-SHRA SHOULD STAY WEST OF THE TERMINAL OVER THE PIKES PEAK AREA.
WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE WEST DURING THE EARLY EVENING AS THE
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WITH WINDS DECREASING...THOUGH STILL
REMAINING IN THE 15-25KT RANGE AT TIMES. -KT
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR COZ070-071-084-088-089-093>099.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR COZ222-226>237.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT
FOR COZ073-075.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM MDT MONDAY FOR
COZ060-066-067.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT MONDAY FOR COZ068.
&&
$$
31/88
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
1030 AM EDT SUN MAR 18 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY...PRODUCING A SOUTHWEST FLOW OF
WARMER AIR ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK DISTURBANCE COULD TRIGGER AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TONIGHT INTO MONDAY EVENING.
GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER...AND UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
THEN CONTINUE WELL INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1020 AM EDT...THE LOW STRATUS IS HAVING TOUGH THIS MORNING
IN THE HUDSON AND CT RIVER VALLEYS. THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE
LOOP SHOWS THE STRATUS EXTENDING FROM THE SARATOGA REGION SOUTH
DOWN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...WITH SOME LOW CLOUDS IN THE
TACONICS AND BERKSHIRES...SE VT...AS WELL AS NORTHWEST CT.
THE 12Z KALB SOUNDING SHOWS THIS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED
BENEATH A STRONG INVERSION BTWN 980 AND 900 HPA. WE HAVE KEPT
THESE CLOUDS AROUND UNTIL ABOUT NOONTIME...AS THE SOLAR
ANGLE...MIXING FROM ALOFT...AND THE SUBSIDENCE /SINKING AIR/FROM
THE RIDGE WILL YIELD MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS IN THE AFTERNOON.
OUTSIDE THE STRATUS IS CONTINUES TO BE SUNNY WITH TEMPS WARMING
NICELY IN THE 50S AND L60S. WE RETOOLED HOURLY T/TD/RH/APPARENT
TEMPS BASED ON THE OBSERVATIONS.
SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH SLOW MOVING MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE/MCV ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY/MIDWEST MAY REACH WESTERN
AREAS BEFORE SUNSET. WILL NEED TO WATCH UPSTREAM RADARS CLOSELY
LATE TODAY...AS THE LATEST HRRR HINTS THAT SOME SHOWERS MAY REACH
FAR NW AREAS BY EARLY EVENING. WE HAVE INCLUDED SOME SLIGHT CHC
POPS IN THIS REGION TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MIXING HEIGHT POTENTIAL REACHING
BETWEEN 900-925 MB. THIS SHOULD ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH 70-75
ACROSS MUCH OF THE HUDSON VALLEY REGION...AND MOHAWK VALLEY...WITH
THE WARMEST TEMPS ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...WITH
GENERALLY 60S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT-MONDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL SLOWLY
APPROACH FROM THE W. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE 300 K SFC
SHOULD PROMOTE INCREASING CLOUDS THIS EVENING...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES LATER TONIGHT INTO MUCH OF MONDAY. IN ADDITION...EXPECT SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT ACROSS
WESTERN AREAS...AND FOR MOST AREAS BY LATE MONDAY MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. SOME WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY COULD ALLOW FOR
EMBEDDED...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...ESP ACROSS WESTERN AREAS SUCH
AS THE CATSKILLS/SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND MOHAWK VALLEY. ANY SHOWERS
THAT DEVELOP WILL BE SLOW MOVING DUE TO VERY LIGHT WINDS
ALOFT...SO ALTHOUGH AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL BE
LIMITED...LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWAT/S OF AROUND OR OVER 1 INCH...AND LIGHT WINDS
ALOFT. FOR TEMPS...GENERALLY WENT WITH WARMER MET MOS
TONIGHT...WITH 40S IN MOST AREAS...EXCEPT FOR LOWER TO PERHAPS MID
50S CLOSE TO THE CAPITAL REGION. FOR MONDAY...DESPITE MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES...EXPECT MAXES TO REACH THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S IN
VALLEY REGIONS.
MON NT-TUE NT...EXPECT ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS TO GRADUALLY
DIMINISH IN AREAL COVERAGE WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING MON NT.
MOST MODELS INDICATE SHORTWAVE TO WEAKEN...AND POSSIBLY RETROGRADE
FURTHER S AND W TUE INTO TUE NT...AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
STRENGTHENS. THIS SHOULD LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS ON
TUE...WITH MAINLY ISOLATED SHOWERS EXPECTED...ESP ACROSS THE
EASTERN CATSKILLS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY REGION. A WEAK
SIDEDOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS DEPICTED TO MOVE WESTWARD MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH SOME LOW LEVEL COOLING FOR TUE. THE MET MOS HAS
TRENDED MUCH COOLER FOR TUE MAXES...WITH TEMPS ONLY REACHING THE
LOWER/MID 60S IN MANY AREAS...AND EVEN HOLDING NEAR 60 ACROSS THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY. WE HAVE INDICATED MAX TEMPS A BIT WARMER THAN
THESE CHILLY MET MOS...BUT STILL COOLER THAN THE MAV MOS...WITH
GENERALLY 65-70 ACROSS THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...WARMEST TO THE
NORTH...AND LOWER 70S ACROSS THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY. FOR MON
NT...HAVE UTILIZED A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS...WITH 45-50 IN MOST
AREAS. AS THE HIGH REBUILDS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TUE NT...THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS SHOULD END. SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY AFFECT PORTIONS
OF THE REGION LATE AT NIGHT GIVEN A STRENGTHENING SSE FLOW. FOR
MINS...GENERALLY EXPECT MID/UPPER 40S IN MOST AREAS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY DRY AND VERY MILD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING
SOME ALONG WITH UNSETTLED CONDITIONS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD...ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...EXPECT DRY WEATHER AS A LARGE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS FA AND THEN STARTS TO RETREAT TO OUR
SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE VERY MILD GENERALLY
AVERAGING AS MUCH AS 25 TO 30 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECT HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S
TO MID 50S.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
DROP SOUTH FROM SOUTHERN CANADA INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK BY FRIDAY
MORNING. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WITH PCPN WILL GO NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ALONG WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS MOISTURE AHEAD OF
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY DRY UP AS IT BUMPS INTO DEPARTING RIDGE. EXPECT
LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY
IN MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES OR OHIO VALLEY BY SATURDAY MORNING AND THEN
DRIFT SLOWLY TOWARD THE EASTERN SEABOARD LATE SATURDAY. THERE IS A
GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY WHERE THIS LOW WILL TRACK AS THE ECMWF HAS
THIS SYSTEM MOVING NORTHEAST UP THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY...WHILE
THE GFS TRACKS THE LOW EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS SRN PA. EITHER SCENARIO
WOULD RESULT IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...HOWEVER THE ECMWF WOULD HAVE
MUCH MILDER CONDITIONS FOR THE FA THAN THE GFS. FOR NOW HAVE CHANCE
POPS WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S AND HIGHS ON
SATURDAY IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A BAND OF LOW MVFR/IFR STRATUS HAS COVERED MUCH OF THE HUDSON
VALLEY...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH...IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL AROUND NOONTIME NOW. THE STRATUS WILL QUICKLY
ERODE ONCE THE SUN ANGLE BECOMES HIGHER IN THE SKY...AND MIXING
FROM ALOFT OCCURS.
CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY THROUGH THIS EVENING ARE
EXPECTED TO BE VFR WITH MAINLY P6SM SKC. EXPECT HIGH CLOUDS TO
INCREASE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF TONIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT FOG
RESULTING IN MVFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT AT KGFL AND KPOU.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT
4-9 KTS THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
MON...VFR/MVFR. SLGT CHC -SHRA.
MON NT-THU...VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION INTO AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK. EXPECT LIGHT WINDS...AND UNSEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.
THE RH WILL FALL INTO THE 40-50 PERCENT RANGE WITHIN VALLEYS...AND
50-60 PERCENT ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE
RECOVERING TO 90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE RH WILL THEN FALL TO
50-60 PERCENT RANGE IN VALLEYS...AND 60-70 PERCENT ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TODAY AT 5-15 MPH. WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT...THEN BECOME SOUTHEAST ON MONDAY AT
5-15 MPH.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. LINGERING SNOWMELT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS WILL
OCCUR...WHICH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO MINOR...WITHIN BANK RISES ACROSS SOME
NORTHERN RIVERS/STREAMS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS
ALBANY NY: RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874
MARCH 18: 65 DEGREES 1966 (ALSO IN PREVIOUS YEARS)
MARCH 19: 75 DEGREES 1894
MARCH 20: 74 DEGREES 1903
MARCH 21: 78 DEGREES 1921
MARCH 22: 80 DEGREES 1938
NORMAL HIGH: MID 40S LOW: UPPER 20S
GLENS FALLS NY: RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949
MARCH 18: 64 DEGREES 2010 (ALSO IN PREVIOUS YEARS)
MARCH 19: 67 DEGREES 2010 (ALSO IN PREVIOUS YEARS)
MARCH 20: 68 DEGREES 2010
MARCH 21: 68 DEGREES 1946
MARCH 22: 71 DEGREES 1946
NORMAL HIGH: MID 40S LOW: LOWER 20S
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949
MARCH 18: 72 DEGREES 2011
MARCH 19: 70 DEGREES 2010
MARCH 20: 74 DEGREES 1976
MARCH 21: 70 DEGREES 2010
MARCH 22: 71 DEGREES 1979
NORMAL HIGH: UPPER 40S LOW: MID 20S
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/GJM
NEAR TERM...KL/WASULA
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11/WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...KL
HYDROLOGY...KL
CLIMATE...IAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
147 AM EDT SUN MAR 18 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL MOVE
SOUTHWARD OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY...PRODUCING
A SOUTHWEST FLOW OF WARMER AIR ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK DISTURBANCE
COULD TRIGGER AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY EVENING. FAIR WEATHER...AND UNSEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL THEN CONTINUE WELL INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 140 AM EDT...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION.
THE COMBINATION OF CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS HAS ALLOWED TEMPS
TO FALL INTO THE LOWER/MID 30S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LAKE
GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION AND SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...WHILE PERSISTENT
SOUTH WINDS HAVE HELD TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 50S WITHIN THE
CAPITAL REGION.
LOW CLOUDS WERE NOTED ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND ACROSS
NJ...AND WERE MOVING N ACCORDING TO RECENT IR IMAGERY. THE HRRR
AND RUC 13 ALSO INDICATE THIS MOISTURE/CLOUD POTENTIAL EXPANDING
NORTH INTO THE CAPITAL REGION AND CATSKILLS...AND PERHAPS PORTIONS
OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BEFORE DAYBREAK...SO EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME
MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THESE AREAS. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WHETHER THE LOW CLOUDS WILL
FORM FIRST AND REDUCE THE FOG POTENTIAL.
TEMPS SHOULD REACH MINS OVER THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS...BEFORE RISING
WITHIN THE CAPITAL REGION...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND EASTERN
CATSKILLS AS CLOUDS FORM.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
LOW CLOUDS SHOULD PERSIST UNTIL MID MORNING ACROSS THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY FROM AT LEAST ALBANY SOUTH...AS WELL AS ACROSS THE
EASTERN CATSKILLS...AND BERKSHIRES.
AFTER LOW CLOUDS AND FOG BURN OFF...EXPECT SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER
70S.
MAINLY CLEAR AT FIRST SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT AS THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL
TROF TRACKS OVER THE TOP OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...CLOUDS WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE...AND HAVE ALSO INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE AT NIGHT.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50.
ALTHOUGH SOME MODEL RUNS HAVE SHOWN FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE
PCPN ON MONDAY...LATEST 12Z RUNS HAVE DOWNPLAYED PCPN AMOUNTS SO
HAVE KEPT ANY POPS FOR MONDAY BETWEEN 20 AND 30 PERCENT. SKIES WILL
BE MOSTLY CLOUDY ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.
HAVE KEPT THE CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS INTO EARLY MONDAY
EVENING...BUT AS THE TROF DROPS TO THE SOUTH...SKIES WILL CLEAR
MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50 ONCE AGAIN.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE IN PLACE ALONG THE
EAST COAST WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES PERSISTING UNTIL LATE
IN THE WEEK...THEN A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT AND A CUTOFF LOW
APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE LONG
RANGE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE...AND THE ENSEMBLES THAT A HIGH
AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL BE ANCHORED ALONG THE EAST COAST. AT THE
SFC...A BERMUDA TYPE SUMMER TIME HIGH WILL FUNNEL MILD AIR INTO THE
FCST AREA. THE GEFS HAVE H500 HEIGHTS 2 TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL. H850 TEMPS IN THE SAME TIME FRAME WILL BE 1 TO 3
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE WILL
PREVENT ANY BONAFIDE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT WITH THE BEST CHANCES SOUTH
OF THE NORTHEAST OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. HIGHS TEMPS WILL
FLIRT WITH RECORD LEVELS EACH DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO M70S IN
THE VALLEYS...PERHAPS EVEN SOME U70S TO NEAR 80F ON WED. OVER THE
HILLS AND MTNS...EXPECT M60S TO L70S. LOWS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL IN
THE M40S TO L50S.
FRIDAY...HPC/ECMWF CONTINUES TO SHOW A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SLIDING
SOUTH FROM THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY. THE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
IS NOT EXCEPTIONALLY STRONG WITH THIS BOUNDARY...BUT ENOUGH TO
WARRANT A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS. MEANWHILE...A MASSIVE
CUTOFF WILL BE MEANDERING CLOSER FROM THE TN/OH VALLEYS. SOME
SHORT-WAVE ENERGY WITH THE CUTOFF MAY INCREASE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST LATE IN THE DAY. TEMPS SHOULD STILL BE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL WITH M60S TO LOWER 70S OVER THE FCST AREA. THE AMOUNT
OF INSTABILITY IS SUSPECT AT THIS TIME...SO NO THUNDER HAS BEEN
ADDED YET TO THE FCST GRIDS.
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...THIS TIME FRAME LOOKS UNSETTLED WITH
THE CUTOFF SOUTH OF THE REGION...AND ANOTHER NRN STREAM DISTURBANCE
MOVING IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND ONTARIO. IT IS UNCERTAIN
WHAT KIND OF PHASING GOES ON...BUT A DEEP MOISTURE FETCH FROM OFF
THE WRN ATLANTIC...AND CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE UPSTREAM COLD
FRONT...AND SFC WAVE...WARRANTED CHANCES OF SHOWERS FOR BOTH PERIODS.
MAX TEMPS COULD STILL RUN 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS
IN THE M50S TO M60S OVER ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND.
OVERALL...TEMPS WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL...WITH PCPN LIKELY BELOW
NORMAL FOR THE EXTENDED FCST PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL PROMOTE RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF RADIATIONAL FOG AT ALL TAF SITES LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY THIS MORNING. A BAND OF STRATUS IS MOVING
NORTHWARD UP THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE AT
KPOU IN THE NEXT HOUR AND AT KALB ARND 09Z AND REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL
14Z OR 15Z. CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT UNTIL MID
MORNING WILL GENERALLY BE VFR GIVING WAY TO IFR/MVFR WITH THOSE
CONDITIONS PERSISTING UNTIL MID MORNING AFTER WHICH VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT 06Z MONDAY.
WINDS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR SOUTHERLY
AT 4-8 KTS THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT...MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS DUE TO FOG AND LOW STRATUS.
MON...VFR/MVFR. SLGT CHC -SHRA.
MON NT-THU...VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION INTO AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK. EXPECT LIGHT WINDS...AND UNSEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD. ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD OCCUR
MONDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.
THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL RISE TO BETWEEN 90 AND 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT...THEN FALL TO BETWEEN 45 AND 55 PERCENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT. EXPECT SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY AT 5-15 MPH.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. SNOWMELT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS WILL OCCUR...WHICH
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO WITHIN BANK RISES ACROSS SOME NORTHERN
RIVERS/STREAMS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS
ALBANY NY: RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874
MARCH 17: 75 DEGREES 1990 TODAY`S HIGH 62 DEGREES AT 3:35 PM
MARCH 18: 65 DEGREES 1966 (ALSO IN PREVIOUS YEARS)
MARCH 19: 75 DEGREES 1894
MARCH 20: 74 DEGREES 1903
MARCH 21: 78 DEGREES 1921
MARCH 22: 80 DEGREES 1938
NORMAL HIGH: MID 40S LOW: UPPER 20S
GLENS FALLS NY: RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949
MARCH 17: 69 DEGREES 1990 TODAY`S HIGH 58 DEGREES AT 3:39 PM
MARCH 18: 64 DEGREES 2010 (ALSO IN PREVIOUS YEARS)
MARCH 19: 67 DEGREES 2010 (ALSO IN PREVIOUS YEARS)
MARCH 20: 68 DEGREES 2010
MARCH 21: 68 DEGREES 1946
MARCH 22: 71 DEGREES 1946
NORMAL HIGH: MID 40S LOW: LOWER 20S
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949
MARCH 17: 70 DEGREES 1990 TODAY`S HIGH 66 DEGREES AT 3:38 PM
MARCH 18: 72 DEGREES 2011
MARCH 19: 70 DEGREES 2010
MARCH 20: 74 DEGREES 1976
MARCH 21: 70 DEGREES 2010
MARCH 22: 71 DEGREES 1979
NORMAL HIGH: UPPER 40S LOW: MID 20S
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/GJM
NEAR TERM...KL/IAA/GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...GJM
HYDROLOGY...IAA
CLIMATE...IAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
248 AM CDT SUN MAR 18 2012
.DISCUSSION...
902 PM CDT
MAIN ISSUES FOR THE UPDATE THIS EVENING...ARE WITH LINGERING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND A LARGER MORE ORGANIZED COMPLEX OF
PRECIP JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA.
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW MORE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS AREAS IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...MAINLY ALONG AN
AXIS FROM JOLIET SOUTH TO PAXTON IN ILLINOIS. THESE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE DEVELOPING IN AXIS OF HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR AS WELL AS IN AN
AREA OF STEEPER LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...PER LATEST RUC ANALYSIS.
FURTHER NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHWEST INDIANA AND NORTHEAST
ILLINOIS...MUCH LOWER DEWPOINT AIR RESIDES AND HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT
OF A BARRIER THIS EVENING AND LIMITING ANY NORTHWARD
PROGRESSION...WITH THIS TREND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THIS AXIS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE LESS AND LESS IN COVERAGE/FREQUENCY THIS EVENING AS LAPSE
RATES LOWER AND DRIER AIR WORKS ITS WAY EAST ACROSS THE AREA.
A SOMEWHAT MORE ORGANIZED COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
RESIDES SOUTH OF THE CWA ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS...AND IS SLOWLY
WORKING ITS WAY EAST/NORTHEAST. ALTHOUGH...LATEST WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY/RUC ANALYSIS IS SHOWING THAT THIS MID LEVEL TROUGH IS
WEAKENING/DAMPENING WITH ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION. EXPECT THIS MID
LEVEL TROUGH TO BE ON THE WEAK SIDE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA WITH ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
SLOWLY PROGRESS EAST/NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CWA OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. HAVE LOWERED POPS AND CONFINED THEM TO THE SOUTH
AND SOUTHEAST CWA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM AXIS TO STAY ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA. WITH CONTINUED WEAK SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY DECREASING THIS EVENING...ANY SEVERE THREAT WILL ALSO
BE LIMITED IF NOT NON EXISTENT.
RODRIGUEZ
//PREV DISCUSSION...
258 PM CDT
OUR MID-SUMMER LIKE PATTERN CONTINUES. VISIBLE IMAGERY THIS
AFTERNOON SHOWS A FEW AREAS OF CUMULUS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED...HOWEVER
THE GREATER EMPHASIS HAS BEEN WITH THE CLUSTER OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MISSOURI...AND A
CHANNEL OF STRATUS THAT EXISTS ACROSS MINNESOTA SOUTH THROUGH
OKLAHOMA. THE STRATUS CHANNEL WAS CLOSER TO THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
WHERE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE REMAIN IN THE 60S...WHILE
TO THE EAST TEMPS ARE SURGING WELL INTO THE 70S AND LOW 80S.
FOR NORTHERN IL/NORTHWEST IN...NEARLY FULL SUNSHINE IS ANTICIPATED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE CHALLENGE REMAINS
FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING IS WILL CONVECTION DEVELOP.
IF ONE WAS TO JUST LOOK AT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL FROM MODEL
SOUNDINGS...IT WOULD APPEAR WE ARE POISED FOR DECENT THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT GIVEN SUCH HIGH CAPE VALUES. LAPSE RATES IN THE LOW/MID
LVLS ALSO WOULD SUPPORT THIS ACROSS NORTHERN IL/NORTHWEST
IN...HOWEVER THE LARGEST LIMITING FACTOR CONTINUES TO BE THE LACK OF
SHEAR THROUGHOUT THE LOWEST 0-6KM OF THE ATMOSPHERE. SPC
MESOANALYSIS PAGE HAS BEEN REFERENCED MANY TIMES THIS AFTERNOON IN
TRYING TO DIAGNOSE THE POTENTIAL TRIGGER...AND IT COULD POSSIBLY BE
SOME OLD BOUNDARIES FROM THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION OVER MCHENRY
COUNTY. THE TRIGGER COULD ALSO BE A LAKE BREEZE THAT WILL TRY TO
PUSH INLAND ACROSS COOK/LAKE COUNTIES IL...HOWEVER 925MB WINDS
APPEAR TO BE STRONG ENOUGH FROM THE SOUTH THAT THIS SHUD INHIBIT
MUCH OF AN INLAND PUSH. OR SUGGEST THAT THE LIFT WOULD BE FOCUSED
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE AREAS...SIMILAR TO FRIDAY EVENINGS
THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE.
HOWEVER...THIS IS A VERY LOW PROBABILITY AT THIS POINT FOR THIS
AFTN. REGARDLESS...HAVE CONTINUED TO MENTION THUNDER AS SOME
VERTICAL GROWTH IN THE CUMULUS FIELD HAS BEEN NOTED. GIVEN THE
ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY...THE POTENTIAL IS CLEARLY NOT ZERO.
BEYOND THIS...THE FOCUS TURNS TOWARDS THE APPROACHING 500MB WAVE
THAT PUSHES INTO CENTRAL IL LATER TONIGHT...OR AFT 00Z SUN.
500MB TROUGH CONTINUES TO PIVOT EAST AND SHUD ARRIVE ACROSS CENTRAL
IL ARND 6Z SUN. SOUNDINGS INDICATE CAPE CHANNEL BECOMES SKINNY...BUT
WITH AN APPROACHING LLVL JET AND SOME ADDTL FORCING...CAN/T RULE OUT
THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT. GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED
TO SHOW CORRECTIONS...INDICATING A LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE
PLACEMENT/COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY SUN PRECIP.
TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL YET AGAIN REMAIN MILD IN THE UPR 50S/ARND 60
DEGREES. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR YET ANOTHER VERY MILD AND NEAR
RECORD HIGHS FOR SUN AFTN.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
500MB WAVE EJECTS EAST SUN MORNING...AND MID LVL HEIGHTS BEGIN TO
RISE YET AGAIN. STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE REMAINS WELL WEST OF THE
REGION...THUS ANTICIPATE MINIMAL WEATHER IF ANY FOR SUN MIDDAY THRU
THE AFTN. HAVE HELD ONTO SOME LINGERING PRECIP IN THE MORNING
PERIOD...HOWEVER THIS WAS A LOW CONFIDENCE ASPECT. 850MB THERMAL
RIDGE OF 10 TO 12 DEG C BECOMES PARKED OVERHEAD...AND A FEW GUIDANCE
MEMBERS WARM THIS FEATURE FURTHER TO ARND 13 DEG C INTO MON. THIS
COULD BE A FUNCTION OF THE AMPLIFYING RIDGE AND THE DIGGING WEST
COAST TROUGH. THUS ALLOWING FURTHER FORCING OF WARMTH TO OCCUR.
NONETHELESS...ANTICIPATE SUN AFTN TO REMAIN DRY WITH TEMPS IN THE
LOW 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWFA. THIS APPEARS TO PERSIST INTO MON
WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO THE UPR 70S TO ARND 80 DEG. GIVEN SUCH A
MINIMAL LIFT ENVIRONMENT...AND A THIN CUMULUS FIELD...NOT
ANTICIPATING CONVECTION INTO MONDAY EITHER. SPC CONTINUES TO
ADVERTISE THE BEST CONVECTIVE THREAT SUN/MON WILL REMAIN WELL WEST
OF THE REGION...SO CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT WE WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY
QUIET UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEK.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO DEMONSTRATE THAT PERHAPS A BRIEF RESPITE TO
THE
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES COULD OCCUR TOWARDS THE SECOND HALF
OF NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER THIS IS A LOW PROBABILITY AT THIS JUNCTURE.
CURRENT PROJECTIONS ARE THAT A TROUGH WILL STEADILY DIG INTO THE
FOUR-CORNERS REGION OF THE CONUS...AIDING IN FURTHER AMPLIFICATION
OF THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO NORTH THROUGH HUDSON
BAY. BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS WILL BE A SHARP BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT
SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR A VERY ACTIVE...POTENTIALLY SEVERAL DAYS OF
SEVERE WEATHER FOR THE PLAINS/OZARKS/TENNESSEE VALLEY/OHIO
VALLEY/WESTERN GREAT LAKES. WHAT APPEARS TO BE SETTING UP IS A
TRADITIONAL RING-OF-FIRE...WHERE SYSTEMS DEVELOP ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND SLIDE ALONG THE NORTHERN END.
PWAT VALUES ARE PROGGED TO BE RUNNING ON THE ORDER OF 2 INCHES
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FAVORED CONVECTIVE ZONES IN THIS TIMEFRAME.
AT THE ONSET FOR TUE...IT APPEARS THIS ACTIVE ZONE WILL REMAIN WEST
OF THE NORTHERN IL/NORTHWEST IN AREAS. IT WILL ALL HINGE ON THE
PLACEMENT OF THE 500MB RIDGE FOR HOW PROGRESSIVE THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
THROUGHOUT THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER POTENTIAL FLY IN THE
OINTMENT TO PREVENT MUCH OF A PATTERN CHANGE WILL BE THE DOWNSTREAM
TROUGH OVER GREENLAND. THIS MAY ACT TO BLOCK THE RIDGE FROM MOVING
EAST...AND ALSO MAINTAIN THE WARMTH. HOWEVER...MANY VARIABLES WILL
IMPACT THE EVENTUAL OUTCOME.
CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST...MEDIUM.
BEACHLER
&&
.CLIMATE...
925 AM CDT FRI
RECORD HIGHS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST HALF
OF NEXT WEEK. HERE ARE RECORDS AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE FOR ORD AND
RFD FOR NEXT FEW DAYS...
RECORD MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR CHICAGO
MAR 17 74 2009
MAR 18 74 1969
MAR 19 78 1921
MAR 20 76 1938
RECORD MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR ROCKFORD
MAR 17 74 2003
MAR 18 73 1945
MAR 19 78 1921
MAR 20 79 1921
NORMAL NUMBER OF 70 DEGREE DAYS IN MARCH FOR BOTH CHICAGO AND
ROCKFORD IS 1.2.
RECORD NUMBER OF DAYS WITH MAX TEMP 70 OR ABOVE IN MARCH
CHICAGO 9 IN 1945...6 IN 1910 AND 1907.
ROCKFORD 11 IN 1910...7 IN 1945.
RECORD FOR CONSECUTIVE 70 DEGREE DAYS IN MARCH
CHICAGO...5 FROM MARCH 12-16 1995.
ROCKFORD...9 MARCH 23-31 1910.
TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S ARE EXTREMELY RARE IN MARCH. FOR
CHICAGO...DATA GOES BACK TO 1872. THERE HAVE ONLY BEEN A TOTAL OF
10 DAYS IN MARCH WITH A HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 80 DEGREES. THE MOST
IN ONE YEAR WAS 2 IN 1986. FOR ROCKFORD RECORDS GO BACK TO 1906.
THERE HAVE ONLY BEEN 12 80 DEGREE DAYS IN MARCH. THE MOST IN ONE
YEAR WAS 2 IN 1907...1939...AND 1986.
ALLSOPP/TRS
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* VERY LOW CHANCE OF AN ISOLD TSRA
IZZI
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHEAST FROM CENTRAL ILLINOIS
TOWARD NORTHERN INDIANA. SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA WITH THIS SYSTEM
EXPECTED TO PASS SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS...BUT COULD BE A NAIL
BITER AT GYY. GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LOW CANNOT TOTALLY
RULE OUT A RENEGADE SHOWER OR STORM CLOSER TO MDW/DPA/ORD...BUT
CHANCES ARE ONLY AROUND 10%. SYSTEM PULLS EAST AND SKIES CLEAR OUT
AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE WITH ATMOSPHERE GROWING UNSTABLE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ONCE AGAIN THERE IS ABOUT 10% CHANCE OF A SHOWER
OR STORM SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING BUT CHANCES ARE FAR TOO LOW
TO MENTION IN TAFS. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND SOUTHERLY
WINDS.
IZZI
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST
IZZI
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...VFR WITH CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA ARRIVING TUESDAY NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...OCCASIONAL SHRA/ISOLD TSRA. MVFR LIKELY WITH
PERIODIC IFR POSSIBLE.
FRIDAY...CHANCE SHRA. MVFR LIKELY.
MDB
&&
.MARINE...
248 AM CDT
PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AS
REGION IS ANCHORED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE ALONG EAST COAST AND LOW
PRESSURE(S) OVER THE HIGH PLAINS/ROCKIES. WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY
BE FAIRLY LIGHT GIVEN THE STRONGLY STABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE COLD
WATERS...HOWEVER AS VERY STRONG LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO MANITOBA
TUESDAY SHOULD SEE SOUTHERLIES FRESHEN UP A BIT. THREAT OF LOCALLY
DENSE FOG WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH DEWPOINT
AIR MASS BEING ADVECTED OVER THE STILL CHILLY LAKE...WITH GREATEST
FOG THREAT OF NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN.
IZZI
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1212 AM CDT SUN MAR 18 2012
.DISCUSSION...
902 PM CDT
MAIN ISSUES FOR THE UPDATE THIS EVENING...ARE WITH LINGERING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND A LARGER MORE ORGANIZED COMPLEX OF
PRECIP JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA.
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW MORE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS AREAS IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...MAINLY ALONG AN
AXIS FROM JOLIET SOUTH TO PAXTON IN ILLINOIS. THESE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE DEVELOPING IN AXIS OF HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR AS WELL AS IN AN
AREA OF STEEPER LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...PER LATEST RUC ANALYSIS.
FURTHER NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHWEST INDIANA AND NORTHEAST
ILLINOIS...MUCH LOWER DEWPOINT AIR RESIDES AND HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT
OF A BARRIER THIS EVENING AND LIMITING ANY NORTHWARD
PROGRESSION...WITH THIS TREND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THIS AXIS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE LESS AND LESS IN COVERAGE/FREQUENCY THIS EVENING AS LAPSE
RATES LOWER AND DRIER AIR WORKS ITS WAY EAST ACROSS THE AREA.
A SOMEWHAT MORE ORGANIZED COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
RESIDES SOUTH OF THE CWA ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS...AND IS SLOWLY
WORKING ITS WAY EAST/NORTHEAST. ALTHOUGH...LATEST WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY/RUC ANALYSIS IS SHOWING THAT THIS MID LEVEL TROUGH IS
WEAKENING/DAMPENING WITH ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION. EXPECT THIS MID
LEVEL TROUGH TO BE ON THE WEAK SIDE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA WITH ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
SLOWLY PROGRESS EAST/NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CWA OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. HAVE LOWERED POPS AND CONFINED THEM TO THE SOUTH
AND SOUTHEAST CWA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM AXIS TO STAY ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA. WITH CONTINUED WEAK SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY DECREASING THIS EVENING...ANY SEVERE THREAT WILL ALSO
BE LIMITED IF NOT NON EXISTENT.
RODRIGUEZ
//PREV DISCUSSION...
258 PM CDT
OUR MID-SUMMER LIKE PATTERN CONTINUES. VISIBLE IMAGERY THIS
AFTERNOON SHOWS A FEW AREAS OF CUMULUS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED...HOWEVER
THE GREATER EMPHASIS HAS BEEN WITH THE CLUSTER OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MISSOURI...AND A
CHANNEL OF STRATUS THAT EXISTS ACROSS MINNESOTA SOUTH THROUGH
OKLAHOMA. THE STRATUS CHANNEL WAS CLOSER TO THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
WHERE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE REMAIN IN THE 60S...WHILE
TO THE EAST TEMPS ARE SURGING WELL INTO THE 70S AND LOW 80S.
FOR NORTHERN IL/NORTHWEST IN...NEARLY FULL SUNSHINE IS ANTICIPATED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE CHALLENGE REMAINS
FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING IS WILL CONVECTION DEVELOP.
IF ONE WAS TO JUST LOOK AT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL FROM MODEL
SOUNDINGS...IT WOULD APPEAR WE ARE POISED FOR DECENT THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT GIVEN SUCH HIGH CAPE VALUES. LAPSE RATES IN THE LOW/MID
LVLS ALSO WOULD SUPPORT THIS ACROSS NORTHERN IL/NORTHWEST
IN...HOWEVER THE LARGEST LIMITING FACTOR CONTINUES TO BE THE LACK OF
SHEAR THROUGHOUT THE LOWEST 0-6KM OF THE ATMOSPHERE. SPC
MESOANALYSIS PAGE HAS BEEN REFERENCED MANY TIMES THIS AFTERNOON IN
TRYING TO DIAGNOSE THE POTENTIAL TRIGGER...AND IT COULD POSSIBLY BE
SOME OLD BOUNDARIES FROM THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION OVER MCHENRY
COUNTY. THE TRIGGER COULD ALSO BE A LAKE BREEZE THAT WILL TRY TO
PUSH INLAND ACROSS COOK/LAKE COUNTIES IL...HOWEVER 925MB WINDS
APPEAR TO BE STRONG ENOUGH FROM THE SOUTH THAT THIS SHUD INHIBIT
MUCH OF AN INLAND PUSH. OR SUGGEST THAT THE LIFT WOULD BE FOCUSED
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE AREAS...SIMILAR TO FRIDAY EVENINGS
THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE.
HOWEVER...THIS IS A VERY LOW PROBABILITY AT THIS POINT FOR THIS
AFTN. REGARDLESS...HAVE CONTINUED TO MENTION THUNDER AS SOME
VERTICAL GROWTH IN THE CUMULUS FIELD HAS BEEN NOTED. GIVEN THE
ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY...THE POTENTIAL IS CLEARLY NOT ZERO.
BEYOND THIS...THE FOCUS TURNS TOWARDS THE APPROACHING 500MB WAVE
THAT PUSHES INTO CENTRAL IL LATER TONIGHT...OR AFT 00Z SUN.
500MB TROUGH CONTINUES TO PIVOT EAST AND SHUD ARRIVE ACROSS CENTRAL
IL ARND 6Z SUN. SOUNDINGS INDICATE CAPE CHANNEL BECOMES SKINNY...BUT
WITH AN APPROACHING LLVL JET AND SOME ADDTL FORCING...CAN/T RULE OUT
THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT. GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED
TO SHOW CORRECTIONS...INDICATING A LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE
PLACEMENT/COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY SUN PRECIP.
TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL YET AGAIN REMAIN MILD IN THE UPR 50S/ARND 60
DEGREES. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR YET ANOTHER VERY MILD AND NEAR
RECORD HIGHS FOR SUN AFTN.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
500MB WAVE EJECTS EAST SUN MORNING...AND MID LVL HEIGHTS BEGIN TO
RISE YET AGAIN. STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE REMAINS WELL WEST OF THE
REGION...THUS ANTICIPATE MINIMAL WEATHER IF ANY FOR SUN MIDDAY THRU
THE AFTN. HAVE HELD ONTO SOME LINGERING PRECIP IN THE MORNING
PERIOD...HOWEVER THIS WAS A LOW CONFIDENCE ASPECT. 850MB THERMAL
RIDGE OF 10 TO 12 DEG C BECOMES PARKED OVERHEAD...AND A FEW GUIDANCE
MEMBERS WARM THIS FEATURE FURTHER TO ARND 13 DEG C INTO MON. THIS
COULD BE A FUNCTION OF THE AMPLIFYING RIDGE AND THE DIGGING WEST
COAST TROUGH. THUS ALLOWING FURTHER FORCING OF WARMTH TO OCCUR.
NONETHELESS...ANTICIPATE SUN AFTN TO REMAIN DRY WITH TEMPS IN THE
LOW 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWFA. THIS APPEARS TO PERSIST INTO MON
WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO THE UPR 70S TO ARND 80 DEG. GIVEN SUCH A
MINIMAL LIFT ENVIRONMENT...AND A THIN CUMULUS FIELD...NOT
ANTICIPATING CONVECTION INTO MONDAY EITHER. SPC CONTINUES TO
ADVERTISE THE BEST CONVECTIVE THREAT SUN/MON WILL REMAIN WELL WEST
OF THE REGION...SO CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT WE WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY
QUIET UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEK.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO DEMONSTRATE THAT PERHAPS A BRIEF RESPITE TO
THE
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES COULD OCCUR TOWARDS THE SECOND HALF
OF NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER THIS IS A LOW PROBABILITY AT THIS JUNCTURE.
CURRENT PROJECTIONS ARE THAT A TROUGH WILL STEADILY DIG INTO THE
FOUR-CORNERS REGION OF THE CONUS...AIDING IN FURTHER AMPLIFICATION
OF THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO NORTH THROUGH HUDSON
BAY. BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS WILL BE A SHARP BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT
SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR A VERY ACTIVE...POTENTIALLY SEVERAL DAYS OF
SEVERE WEATHER FOR THE PLAINS/OZARKS/TENNESSEE VALLEY/OHIO
VALLEY/WESTERN GREAT LAKES. WHAT APPEARS TO BE SETTING UP IS A
TRADITIONAL RING-OF-FIRE...WHERE SYSTEMS DEVELOP ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND SLIDE ALONG THE NORTHERN END.
PWAT VALUES ARE PROGGED TO BE RUNNING ON THE ORDER OF 2 INCHES
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FAVORED CONVECTIVE ZONES IN THIS TIMEFRAME.
AT THE ONSET FOR TUE...IT APPEARS THIS ACTIVE ZONE WILL REMAIN WEST
OF THE NORTHERN IL/NORTHWEST IN AREAS. IT WILL ALL HINGE ON THE
PLACEMENT OF THE 500MB RIDGE FOR HOW PROGRESSIVE THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
THROUGHOUT THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER POTENTIAL FLY IN THE
OINTMENT TO PREVENT MUCH OF A PATTERN CHANGE WILL BE THE DOWNSTREAM
TROUGH OVER GREENLAND. THIS MAY ACT TO BLOCK THE RIDGE FROM MOVING
EAST...AND ALSO MAINTAIN THE WARMTH. HOWEVER...MANY VARIABLES WILL
IMPACT THE EVENTUAL OUTCOME.
CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST...MEDIUM.
BEACHLER
&&
.CLIMATE...
925 AM CDT FRI
RECORD HIGHS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST HALF
OF NEXT WEEK. HERE ARE RECORDS AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE FOR ORD AND
RFD FOR NEXT FEW DAYS...
RECORD MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR CHICAGO
MAR 17 74 2009
MAR 18 74 1969
MAR 19 78 1921
MAR 20 76 1938
RECORD MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR ROCKFORD
MAR 17 74 2003
MAR 18 73 1945
MAR 19 78 1921
MAR 20 79 1921
NORMAL NUMBER OF 70 DEGREE DAYS IN MARCH FOR BOTH CHICAGO AND
ROCKFORD IS 1.2.
RECORD NUMBER OF DAYS WITH MAX TEMP 70 OR ABOVE IN MARCH
CHICAGO 9 IN 1945...6 IN 1910 AND 1907.
ROCKFORD 11 IN 1910...7 IN 1945.
RECORD FOR CONSECUTIVE 70 DEGREE DAYS IN MARCH
CHICAGO...5 FROM MARCH 12-16 1995.
ROCKFORD...9 MARCH 23-31 1910.
TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S ARE EXTREMELY RARE IN MARCH. FOR
CHICAGO...DATA GOES BACK TO 1872. THERE HAVE ONLY BEEN A TOTAL OF
10 DAYS IN MARCH WITH A HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 80 DEGREES. THE MOST
IN ONE YEAR WAS 2 IN 1986. FOR ROCKFORD RECORDS GO BACK TO 1906.
THERE HAVE ONLY BEEN 12 80 DEGREE DAYS IN MARCH. THE MOST IN ONE
YEAR WAS 2 IN 1907...1939...AND 1986.
ALLSOPP/TRS
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* VERY LOW CHANCE OF AN ISOLD TSRA
IZZI
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHEAST FROM CENTRAL ILLINOIS
TOWARD NORTHERN INDIANA. SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA WITH THIS SYSTEM
EXPECTED TO PASS SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS...BUT COULD BE A NAIL
BITER AT GYY. GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LOW CANNOT TOTALLY
RULE OUT A RENEGADE SHOWER OR STORM CLOSER TO MDW/DPA/ORD...BUT
CHANCES ARE ONLY AROUND 10%. SYSTEM PULLS EAST AND SKIES CLEAR OUT
AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE WITH ATMOSPHERE GROWING UNSTABLE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ONCE AGAIN THERE IS ABOUT 10% CHANCE OF A SHOWER
OR STORM SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING BUT CHANCES ARE FAR TOO LOW
TO MENTION IN TAFS. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND SOUTHERLY
WINDS.
IZZI
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST
IZZI
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...VFR WITH CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA ARRIVING TUESDAY NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...OCCASIONAL SHRA/ISOLD TSRA. MVFR LIKELY WITH
PERIODIC IFR POSSIBLE.
FRIDAY...CHANCE SHRA. MVFR LIKELY.
MDB
&&
.MARINE...
239 PM CDT
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE EASTERN
SEABOARD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHILE BROAD LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS STATES SETTING UP A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
MODEST SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE LAKE. WITH VERY WARM AIR BEING
ADVECTED OVER THE WATERS...THIS WILL CREATE A PERSISTENT STABLE
LAYER THAT SHOULD KEEP SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE 10 TO 20 KT RANGE
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND 60S ADVECTING
OVER THE WATER WILL ALSO SET THE STAGE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT WHICH
MAY BECOME DENSE AT TIMES. BMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
745 PM EDT MON MAR 19 2012
.AVIATION/UPDATE...
SCT TSTMS OVER NWRN IN HAVE DIMINISHED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS
EVE AS TSTM OUTFLOWS AND LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING HAVE STABILIZED
AIRMASS. UPDATED GRIDS/ZFP FOR ENDING OF SHOWERS BY 00Z. ANOTHER
WK SHRTWV EXPECTED TO LIFT UP WESTERN PORTION OF UPR RIDGE
TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM PRODUCING TSTMS AS FAR EAST AS WEST CENTRAL
IL THIS EVE BUT SHOULD ONLY CAUSE SOME HIGH CLOUDS TO MOVE ACROSS
NRN INDIANA OVERNIGHT. THE AFTN STORMS ACROSS NW INDIANA HAVE
RESULTED IN A COOLER MORE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER THAN 24HRS AGO AT
SBN SO FOG A CONCERN THERE TONIGHT... BUT APPEARS SOUTHERLY
GRADIENT WINDS WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT MIXING TO KEEP VSBYS VFR AT
THE TERMINAL. WK INSTABILITY WILL BUILD WITH DIURNAL HEATING AGAIN
DURING THE DAY TUE... BUT WITH LACK OF ANY FORCING MECHANISMS...
EXPECT JUST SCT CU WILL RESULT. FAIRLY DEEP MIXING DURING THE DAY
SHOULD RESULT IN MODEST SOUTHERLY SFC WINDS WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO
ABOUT 22KT PSBL.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 PM EDT MON MAR 19 2012/
SHORT TERM... /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISOLATED SHOWERS POPPING HERE AND THERE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA. MOST PERSISTENT AND STRONGEST STORM DEVELOPED IN
SOUTHERN LAPORTE COUNTY AND HAS BEEN REDEVELOPING SE WITH TIME AS
THE STORM CYCLES. THIS STORM WILL MOVE TOWARDS SOUTH BEND OVER THE
NEXT HOUR OR SO WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLY SOME SMALL
HAIL. OTHERWISE...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE FORMING
UPSTREAM ACROSS EC ILLINOIS INTO FAR WESTERN INDIANA. SFC BASED
CAPES OF 2000 J/KG AND LI`S TO -6 C WERE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA.
HRRR FIRES EVEN MORE CONVECTION WITH TIME INTO EARLY EVENING ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA. THINK HRRR MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE ON ITS
COVERAGE...BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR EXPANDING COVERAGE AS OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES FROM ST JOE COUNTY CONVECTION MAY EXPAND COVERAGE
SOMEWHAT. ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE BY EARLY EVENING AS LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING OCCURS AND BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO COOL.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN BE IN STORE FROM MID EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH LOWS DROPPING BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT
SEE ANY RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT
OF THE ZONES FOR THE TIME BEING.
LONG TERM...
TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY. FEW CHANGES TO AFFORD WRT MED-LONG TERM
FCST PD. CENTROID OF STALWART RIDGE AMASSES INTO WRN OH BY WED
EVE. CONTINUED STRONG INSOLATION AMID STAGNANT AIRMASS CONTS TO
SUPPORT PROGRESSIVELY WARMER TEMPS INTO WED WITH WED AFTN LKLY
WARMEST...DARE I SAY HOTTEST AS LLVL THERMAL FIELD REACHES APEX.
CONT TO WHITTLE AWAY AT LAKE SHADOW AS STRONG SRLY FLOW TO KEEP
DTC RESPONSE OFFSHORE. WITH INCREASED AGREEMENT WRT TIMING OF 5H
CUTOFF HOLDING SOUTH OF TEXAS RED RIVER VALLEY THROUGH 18 UTC
WED...THEREAFTER ONLY SLOWLY LIFTING NEWD TO KS/MO BORDER FRIDAY
MORNING BEFORE TAKING ON A MORE ERLY EXODUS AS NEXT EPAC TROF
DIGS AND IMPARTS DOWNSTREAM BROAD FLAT RIDGING FM WRN TX TO ERN
MT/DAKOTAS. GIVEN SLOWER TREND OF MID/UL PATTERN HAVE REMOVED POPS
THU AMID POOR MID LVL LAPSE RATES AND ACYCLONIC MIDLVL FLOW AND
ABSENCE OF PARTICULAR FOCI. TRENDED POPS HIR ON FRIDAY AS MIDLVL
COLD POOL NEARS WITH MORE FAVORABLE CLOSED CORE LOW CONCEPTUAL
MODEL. INCRSD DIVERGENCE BYND DY6 THOUGH TEND TO FAVOR MORE SERLY
TURN OF ECMWF. GIVEN BREADTH AND SLOW ERLY PROGRESSION INTO HIGH
HGHT ANOMALY...SUSPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ERLY NEXT WEEK TO ONCE
AGAIN SEGUE INTO A PD OF MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...MURPHY
AVIATION/UPDATE...JT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
226 PM EDT SUN MAR 18 2012
.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT A PERIOD OF DRY CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW IN THEIR
WAKE. THE DRY SPELL AND UNSEASONABLY HIGH TEMPS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MID-WEEK. THAT IS WHEN THERE WILL BE A DRASTIC SWITCH IN
THE WEATHER PATTERN AND A RETURN TO MORE SPRING-LIKE WEATHER.
HIGHS WILL FALL INTO THE 60S AND 70S WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
A SHORTWAVE STILL MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOUR AND THEN
WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY FROM HEATING WILL PROMPT CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. PULLED LIKELIES AS
COVERAGE CURRENTLY ON RADAR AND THAT SHOWING UP IN RUC AND HRRR FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY IS NOT SUFFICIENT TO JUSTIFY THEM. PUT
HIGHEST POPS IN THE NORTH THIS MORNING WITH ONE WAVE MOVING ACROSS
NORTHERN INDIANA NOW. TEMPERATURES COULD STILL REACH INTO THE UPPER
70S/LOW 80S WITH BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER SO DID NOT ADJUST AT THIS
TIME. INCREASED CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST BASED ON
SATELLITE TRENDS AND UPPER WAVE LOCATION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE ONLY FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY FOR MORE
RECORD BREAKING HIGHS.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR ENTIRE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH
RIDGING OVER CENTRAL INDIANA. THIS WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF
OPPORTUNITY FOR TEMPS TO SOAR INTO THE LOW 80S ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY DUE TO AMPLE SUNSHINE. TRENDED ON THE WARMER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RIDGE FINALLY BREAKS DOWN BY MID WEEK...ALLOWING A DEEP UPPER LOW
(WHICH ALMOST APPEARS CLOSED OFF AT TIMES) TO DEVELOP AND DIG SLOWLY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY SATURDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY PUSH A BOUNDARY CLOSER AND CLOSER TO OUR AREA
UNTIL IT ARRIVES FRIDAY AND MOVES EAST OF THE STATE LATER ON SATURDAY.
BASICALLY LOOKING AT DAILY CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
UNTIL THE SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN THE BOUNDARY FINALLY PUSHES EAST OF
THE REGION. ALL LONG TERM GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE IN GENERAL
CONSENSUS WITH THIS PLAYING OUT. AND POST THE RIDGE BREAKING DOWN
EXPECT A DROP IN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION...THOUGH
THEY WILL STILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE BULK OF THE PERIOD.
JUST NOT ABOVE *RECORD* LEVEL. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES ARE
CONCERNED...LEANED HEAVILY TOWARDS PERSISTENCE AS CONSALL
TEMPERATURES AND MEX TEMPERATURES HAVE ALSO TRENDED SIMILARLY.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 181800Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
VFR THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. BULK OF THE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MOVED THROUGH THIS MORNING
HAVE MOVED EAST ACROSS THE CWA. THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY
TRIGGER ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS...BUT THESE
SHOULD BE MAINLY EAST OF KIND...AS HIGHLIGHTED BY SPC/S DY1 SLIGHT
RISK. ONLY SCATTERED CU AND SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD
REMAIN FOR THE FORECAST TERMINALS. MODELS KEEP US UNDER A MODERATE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE
SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS TODAY AND SOUTH AROUND 5 KNOTS TONIGHT.
INITIALLY WASN/T THINKING WE WOULD HAVE ANY FOG ISSUES BUT BOTH
MODELS ARE HINTING AT EITHER BR OR A LIGHT SHOWER BETWEEN THE
HOURS OF 10-14Z MONDAY MORNING. AND DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL YOU
LOOK AT ADDITIONAL SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS LATER IN THE DAY AS
WELL... FOR NOW HAVE SHORT PERIOD OF A FEW HOURS FOR 5SM BR FOR MOST
OF THE TERMINALS...THUS BRINGING THEM DOWN TO MFVR FOR A SHORT
TIME.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...SMF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
101 PM EDT SUN MAR 18 2012
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT A PERIOD OF DRY CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW IN THEIR
WAKE. THE DRY SPELL AND UNSEASONABLY HIGH TEMPS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MID-WEEK. THAT IS WHEN THERE WILL BE A DRASTIC SWITCH IN
THE WEATHER PATTERN AND A RETURN TO MORE SPRING-LIKE WEATHER.
HIGHS WILL FALL INTO THE 60S AND 70S WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
A SHORTWAVE STILL MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOUR AND THEN
WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY FROM HEATING WILL PROMPT CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. PULLED LIKELIES AS
COVERAGE CURRENTLY ON RADAR AND THAT SHOWING UP IN RUC AND HRRR FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY IS NOT SUFFICIENT TO JUSTIFY THEM. PUT
HIGHEST POPS IN THE NORTH THIS MORNING WITH ONE WAVE MOVING ACROSS
NORTHERN INDIANA NOW. TEMPERATURES COULD STILL REACH INTO THE UPPER
70S/LOW 80S WITH BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER SO DID NOT ADJUST AT THIS
TIME. INCREASED CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST BASED ON
SATELLITE TRENDS AND UPPER WAVE LOCATION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE ONLY FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY FOR MORE
RECORD BREAKING HIGHS.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR ENTIRE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH
RIDGING OVER CENTRAL INDIANA. THIS WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF
OPPORTUNITY FOR TEMPS TO SOAR INTO THE LOW 80S ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY DUE TO AMPLE SUNSHINE. TRENDED ON THE WARMER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS HAVE TENDED A LITTLE SLOWER IN BREAKING DOWN THE STRONG UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND MOVING THE UPPER LOW FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. PRECIP
WEDNESDAY NOW APPEARS VERY QUESTIONABLE. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSHOWERS OVER WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL SECTIONS LATE
WEDNESDAY AND DRY ELSEWHERE WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
MODELS GRADUALLY SPREAD PRECIP EAST ACROSS OUR REGION...BUT SOMEWHAT
SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS.
AS FAR AS DAY 7 SOME MODELS START TO MOVE UPPER LOW ON TO THE
EAST...WHILE OTHERS KEEP IT NEAR BY. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS DAY 7.
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED...LEANED HEAVILY TOWARDS
PERSISTENCE WEDNESDAY AS UPPER RIDGE IS SLOWER TO BREAK DOWN.
CONSALL TEMPERATURES AND MEX TEMPERATURES HAVE ALSO TRENDED A
LITTLE WARMER MOST OTHER PERIODS IN EXTENDED AND WILL FOLLOW WITH
A BLEND OF THESE TEMPERATURES IN THIS FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 181800Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
VFR THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. BULK OF THE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MOVED THROUGH THIS MORNING
HAVE MOVED EAST ACROSS THE CWA. THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY
TRIGGER ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS...BUT THESE
SHOULD BE MAINLY EAST OF KIND...AS HIGHLIGHTED BY SPC/S DY1 SLIGHT
RISK. ONLY SCATTERED CU AND SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD
REMAIN FOR THE FORECAST TERMINALS. MODELS KEEP US UNDER A MODERATE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE
SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS TODAY AND SOUTH AROUND 5 KNOTS TONIGHT.
INITIALLY WASN/T THINKING WE WOULD HAVE ANY FOG ISSUES BUT BOTH
MODELS ARE HINTING AT EITHER BR OR A LIGHT SHOWER BETWEEN THE
HOURS OF 10-14Z MONDAY MORNING. AND DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL YOU
LOOK AT ADDITIONAL SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS LATER IN THE DAY AS
WELL... FOR NOW HAVE SHORT PERIOD OF A FEW HOURS FOR 5SM BR FOR MOST
OF THE TERMINALS...THUS BRINGING THEM DOWN TO MFVR FOR A SHORT
TIME.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...SMF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1035 AM EDT SUN MAR 18 2012
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT A PERIOD OF DRY CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW IN THEIR
WAKE. THE DRY SPELL AND UNSEASONABLY HIGH TEMPS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MID-WEEK. THAT IS WHEN THERE WILL BE A DRASTIC SWITCH IN
THE WEATHER PATTERN AND A RETURN TO MORE SPRING-LIKE WEATHER.
HIGHS WILL FALL INTO THE 60S AND 70S WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
A SHORTWAVE STILL MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOUR AND THEN
WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY FROM HEATING WILL PROMPT CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. PULLED LIKELIES AS
COVERAGE CURRENTLY ON RADAR AND THAT SHOWING UP IN RUC AND HRRR FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY IS NOT SUFFICIENT TO JUSTIFY THEM. PUT
HIGHEST POPS IN THE NORTH THIS MORNING WITH ONE WAVE MOVING ACROSS
NORTHERN INDIANA NOW. TEMPERATURES COULD STILL REACH INTO THE UPPER
70S/LOW 80S WITH BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER SO DID NOT ADJUST AT THIS
TIME. INCREASED CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST BASED ON
SATELLITE TRENDS AND UPPER WAVE LOCATION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE ONLY FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY FOR MORE
RECORD BREAKING HIGHS.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR ENTIRE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH
RIDGING OVER CENTRAL INDIANA. THIS WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF
OPPORTUNITY FOR TEMPS TO SOAR INTO THE LOW 80S ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY DUE TO AMPLE SUNSHINE. TRENDED ON THE WARMER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS HAVE TENDED A LITTLE SLOWER IN BREAKING DOWN THE STRONG UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND MOVING THE UPPER LOW FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. PRECIP
WEDNESDAY NOW APPEARS VERY QUESTIONABLE. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSHOWERS OVER WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL SECTIONS LATE
WEDNESDAY AND DRY ELSEWHERE WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
MODELS GRADUALLY SPREAD PRECIP EAST ACROSS OUR REGION...BUT SOMEWHAT
SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS.
AS FAR AS DAY 7 SOME MODELS START TO MOVE UPPER LOW ON TO THE
EAST...WHILE OTHERS KEEP IT NEAR BY. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS DAY 7.
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED...LEANED HEAVILY TOWARDS
PERSISTENCE WEDNESDAY AS UPPER RIDGE IS SLOWER TO BREAK DOWN.
CONSALL TEMPERATURES AND MEX TEMPERATURES HAVE ALSO TRENDED A
LITTLE WARMER MOST OTHER PERIODS IN EXTENDED AND WILL FOLLOW WITH
A BLEND OF THESE TEMPERATURES IN THIS FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 181200Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
1430Z UPDATE...TIMED IN SOME SHOWERS WITH A CB GROUP STARTING AT
1545Z AND LASTING UNTIL 17Z BASED ON LIGHT CONVECTION UPSTREAM.
LIGHTNING STRIKES APPEAR TO HAVE DROPPED OFF ATTM BUT COULD PICK
BACK UP AGAIN AS THE SMALL CLUSTER OF CELLS REACHES KIND.
OTHERIWSE REST OF FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. NO OTHER UPDATES NEEDED
ATTM. PREV DISC FOLLOWS...
MOSTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. BUT THERE WILL BE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE NEAR THE ILLINOIS BORDER MOVES EAST ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA. PRESENTLY ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND...BUT WITH DAYTIME
HEATING WILL MENTION CB IN TAFS AT KIND...KLAF AND KBMG. CHANCES
ARE LOWER OF ANYTHING AFFECTING KHUF AND WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION
THERE.
FROM ABOUT 21Z ON ONLY SCATTERED CU AND SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH
CLOUDS. MODELS KEEP US UNDER A MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST PRESSURE
GRADIENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST AROUND 10
KNOTS TODAY AND SOUTH AROUND 5 KNOTS TONIGHT. DON`T EXPECT ANY FOG
ISSUES AS THERE WILL BE ENOUGH WIND TO MIX ATMOSPHERE A LITTLE.
HOWEVER A BRIEF PERIOD OF 5-6 MILES VISIBILITIES NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION AROUND SUNRISE TODAY AND AGAIN NEAR SUNRISE MONDAY.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...JH/SMF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
941 AM EDT SUN MAR 18 2012
.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT A PERIOD OF DRY CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW IN THEIR
WAKE. THE DRY SPELL AND UNSEASONABLY HIGH TEMPS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MID-WEEK. THAT IS WHEN THERE WILL BE A DRASTIC SWITCH IN
THE WEATHER PATTERN AND A RETURN TO MORE SPRING-LIKE WEATHER.
HIGHS WILL FALL INTO THE 60S AND 70S WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
A SHORTWAVE STILL MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOUR AND THEN
WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY FROM HEATING WILL PROMPT CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. PULLED LIKELIES AS
COVERAGE CURRENTLY ON RADAR AND THAT SHOWING UP IN RUC AND HRRR FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY IS NOT SUFFICIENT TO JUSTIFY THEM. PUT
HIGHEST POPS IN THE NORTH THIS MORNING WITH ONE WAVE MOVING ACROSS
NORTHERN INDIANA NOW. TEMPERATURES COULD STILL REACH INTO THE UPPER
70S/LOW 80S WITH BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER SO DID NOT ADJUST AT THIS
TIME. INCREASED CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST BASED ON
SATELLITE TRENDS AND UPPER WAVE LOCATION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE ONLY FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY FOR MORE
RECORD BREAKING HIGHS.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR ENTIRE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH
RIDGING OVER CENTRAL INDIANA. THIS WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF
OPPORTUNITY FOR TEMPS TO SOAR INTO THE LOW 80S ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY DUE TO AMPLE SUNSHINE. TRENDED ON THE WARMER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS HAVE TENDED A LITTLE SLOWER IN BREAKING DOWN THE STRONG UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND MOVING THE UPPER LOW FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. PRECIP
WEDNESDAY NOW APPEARS VERY QUESTIONABLE. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSHOWERS OVER WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL SECTIONS LATE
WEDNESDAY AND DRY ELSEWHERE WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
MODELS GRADUALLY SPREAD PRECIP EAST ACROSS OUR REGION...BUT SOMEWHAT
SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS.
AS FAR AS DAY 7 SOME MODELS START TO MOVE UPPER LOW ON TO THE
EAST...WHILE OTHERS KEEP IT NEAR BY. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS DAY 7.
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED...LEANED HEAVILY TOWARDS
PERSISTENCE WEDNESDAY AS UPPER RIDGE IS SLOWER TO BREAK DOWN.
CONSALL TEMPERATURES AND MEX TEMPERATURES HAVE ALSO TRENDED A
LITTLE WARMER MOST OTHER PERIODS IN EXTENDED AND WILL FOLLOW WITH
A BLEND OF THESE TEMPERATURES IN THIS FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 18/12Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
MOSTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. BUT THERE WILL BE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE NEAR THE ILLINOIS BORDER MOVES EAST ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA. PRESENTLY ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND...BUT WITH DAYTIME
HEATING WILL MENTION CB IN TAFS AT KIND...KLAF AND KBMG. CHANCES
ARE LOWER OF ANYTHING AFFECTING KHUF AND WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION
THERE.
FROM ABOUT 21Z ON ONLY SCATTERED CU AND SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH
CLOUDS. MODELS KEEP US UNDER A MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST PRESSURE
GRADIENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST AROUND 10
KNOTS TODAY AND SOUTH AROUND 5 KNOTS TONIGHT. DON`T EXPECT ANY FOG
ISSUES AS THERE WILL BE ENOUGH WIND TO MIX ATMOSPHERE A LITTLE.
HOWEVER A BRIEF PERIOD OF 5-6 MILES VISIBILITIES NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION AROUND SUNRISE TODAY AND AGAIN NEAR SUNRISE MONDAY.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...JH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
600 PM MDT MON MAR 19 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 555 PM MDT MON MAR 19 2012
PRIMARY UPDATE WAS TO ADJUST SKY/TEMP/DEW POINT GRIDS TO REFLECT
CURRENT TRENDS. CONTINUED WITH SLIGHTS OVER THE EASTERN TWO TIER
OF COUNTIES AS WIDELY SCATTERED WEAK CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
DEVELOP AND RAPIDLY DIMINISH. ALSO KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIP
OVERNIGHT OVER THE NORTHWEST IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 210 PM MDT MON MAR 19 2012
ADDING DIURNAL ISOLATED T AND -SHRA TO MY ERN ZONES BASED ON
LATEST VIS SAT IMAGERY CONFIRMING SPC RUC INSTABILITY TRENDS AND
ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE HRRR. THE ACTIVITY WILL MOVE TO THE NORTH
THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD DIMINISH BY EARLY EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1259 PM MDT MON MAR 19 2012
MAIN CHANGE OVER THE PREVIOUS FCST WAS TO ADD LOW CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE COLORADO AND NEBRASKA ZONES FOR LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THE REASONING IS BASED MUCH ON THE PROGGED
DEVELOPMENT OF MID-LVL FRONT-G COUPLED WITH THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY. SNDG PROFILES SUGGEST SHRA/FZRA
FOR THESE ZONES GIVEN THE LACK OF ICE BEING INTRODUCED IN THE
COLUMN. THE NARROW BAND OF PRECIP SHOULD END NORTH TO SOUTH BY
MID-MORNING TOMORROW. WIND-WISE THE CURRENT LIGHT AND VAR WINDS
WILL VEER TO NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT GUSTING 20 TO 25 KTS AND
ARE NOT EXPECT TO REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA. HIGH TEMPS TOMORROW
WILL BE COOLER THAN TODAY BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG WITH NORTH WINDS
AT 15 TO 25 MPH. NO PRECIP CHANCES WERE INTRODUCED AT THIS TIME.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT MON MAR 19 2012
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONCERN CONTINUES TO
FOCUS ON UPPER LOW AND HOW THE TRACK/TIMING WILL AFFECT TEMPS AND
PRECIP OVER OUR CWA. CLOSED LOW IS STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
TEXAS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING ON SOUTHERN FLANK OF LARGE SCALE TROUGH
CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. LATEST MODELS
HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON GENERAL TRACK OF UPPER LOW
ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE TOWARDS THE OK/KS BORDER BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THIS PUTS OUR CWA IN A FAVORABLE POSITION FOR PRECIP AS A
BAND OF PRECIP FORMS ON THE NW QUAD OF THE H5/H7 LOW AND PUSHES
NORTH TOWARDS NW KS. OVERALL TREND HAS BEEN TO SPEED UP THE ARRIVAL
OF PRECIP...SO I ADDED 20/30 POPS TUESDAY NIGHT AFTER 06Z. PRECIP
TYPE SHOULD REMAIN ALL RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT...THOUGH A RAIN/SNOW MIX
COULDN`T BE RULED OUT BEFORE SUNRISE.
BETTER CHANCES OVERSPREAD THE CWA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
UPPER LOW SHIFT NORTH. I BUMPED POPS ACROSS SE PART OF THE CWA TO
LIKELY CATEGORY FOR THESE PERIODS WHERE THERE IS GOOD OVERLAP
BETWEEN MODEL QPF AND PROJECTED LIFT/MOISTURE. THERE IS LESS
CERTAINTY REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LOW AND POSITION OF
DRY SLOT BY THURSDAY. WITH THIS IN MIND...I ADJUSTED POPS THURSDAY
TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT PROJECTED DRY SLOT POSITION IN THE EAST BY
LIMITING POPS TO SLIGHT CATEGORY. I WAS NOT COMFORTABLE PULLING OR
RAISING POPS BEYOND THE 20/40 RANGE THURSDAY CONSIDERING THE POOR
PERFORMANCE OF GUIDANCE ON CLOSED SYSTEMS FOR OUR AREA.
I AM NOT CONFIDENT IN HIGH TEMPS WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY...WHICH
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON LOCATION OF CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP BOTH DAYS.
OVERALL I TRENDED TEMPS DOWN A LITTLE...BUT KEPT THE CWA GENERALLY
IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. IT SHOULD BE COOLER FOR LOCATIONS WITH
PRECIP/THICK CLOUD COVER.
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...OMEGA BLOCK TYPE PATTERN ESTABLISHES
ITSELF BY THIS WEEKEND WITH H5 RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. GFS
AND GEFS ARE MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE RIDGE...WHICH IS
UNREALISTIC CONSIDERING THE WAY THESE PATTERN USUALLY EVOLVE OVER
THE CENTRAL US. GUIDANCE IN THE PAST TENDS TO BE TOO QUICK TO MOVE
UPSTREAM CLOSED LOWS EASTWARD...WHICH IS LIKELY THE CASE WITH THE
GFS. ECMWF HOLDS ONTO THE STRONG RIDGE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. THE RESULT OF A SLOWER SOLUTION WILL BE WARMER TEMPERATURES
AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THESE PERIODS. I TRENDED TEMPS UP
SAT/SUN/MON WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 70S...NEAR 80F ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS MAY STILL BE TOO COOL...WITH A STRETCH OF VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAD LATE LAST
WEEK AND THIS PAST WEEKEND CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 555 PM MDT MON MAR 19 2012
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO REMAIN WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF KMCK AND
ANTICIPATE THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE SO NO MENTION OF PRECIP HERE
BUT TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED AND TAFS ADJUSTED AS NEEDED. WILL SEE
CIGS GRADUALLY LOWER DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS WITH A COLD
FRONT STILL EXPECTED TO IMPACT BOTH TERMINALS IN THE 07-08Z TIME
FRAME. AT THAT TIME...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND
INCREASE WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 30KTS AT TIMES. HAVE GONE AHEAD
AND LOWERED CIGS TO MVFR BY 12Z FOR BOTH TERMINALS BASED ON LATEST
GUIDANCE AND UPSTREAM OBS BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS WILL BECOME
NORTHERLY DURING THE DAY TOMORROW AS CIGS GRADUALLY LIFTING BACK
TO VFR BY MID-DAY.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...FOLTZ
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....DR
AVIATION...FOLTZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1217 PM MDT SUN MAR 18 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1205 PM MDT SUN MAR 18 2012
EVERYTHING PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK SO JUST ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES TO
REFLECT COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOME OF THE EASTERN COUNTIES.
ALSO SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED WINDS TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 851 AM MDT SUN MAR 18 2012
UPDATE TO INCLUDE ADJUSTING TEMPERATURE AND WINDS THIS MORNING.
WILL NEED TO WATCH WINDS CLOSELY THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON GIVEN
HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. ALSO WILL NEED
TO MONITOR THE POSITION OF THE DRYLINE TODAY TO SEE IF RED FLAG
WARNING MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED FURTHER EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM MDT SUN MAR 18 2012
MAIN FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE HIGH WINDS/FIRE WEATHER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH TONIGHT. SATELLITE SHOWING THE FLOW HAS
BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WEST COAST OF NORTH
AMERICA. SOUTHERN END OF UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG AND SPLIT OFF
FROM THE NORTHERN PORTION. WARM AND DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE OVER THE
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY.
EXTREMELY STRONG JET ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THE GFS
FOLLOWED BY THE ECMWF WERE DOING THE BEST WITH THIS. AT MID LEVELS
THE GFS AND UKMET FOLLOWED BY THE ECMWF WAS DOING THE BEST ON THE
HEIGHT FIELD AND ESPECIALLY THE PLACEMENT OF THE SYSTEM OVER CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA. ALTHOUGH THEY ALL TENDED TO BE TOO MOIST AT MID LEVELS.
MODELS WERE NOT DOING WELL WITH THE DRY LINE/LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
THEY TENDED TO NOT HAVE THE DRY LINE FAR ENOUGH WEST. THE HRRR
FOLLOWED BY THE RUC/CANADIAN WERE CATCHING THIS THE BEST.
TODAY/TONIGHT...WINDS AND FIRE WEATHER THE INITIAL PROBLEMS. MAIN
ISSUE IS IF THE AREA OF THE HIGH WIND WARNING NEEDS TO BE EXPANDED.
THE GFS WAS CATCHING THE 700 MB WINDS THE BEST WITH OTHER MODELS
NOT TOO FAR BEHIND. MODELS SHOWING VERY GOOD LAPSE RATES ALONG AND TO
THE WEST OF THE COLORADO/KANSAS BORDER. THIS PLUS THE AREA OF 50
KNOT PLUS WINDS EXPAND A LITTLE TO THE EAST DURING THE DAY. THIS
CORRESPONDING WELL TO THE EXPECTED POSITION OF THE DRYLINE WHICH
THE HRRR CONTINUES THROUGH 08Z TO HAVE A VERY GOOD HANDLE ON.
ALSO BELIEVE THE MODELS ARE OVERDOING THE MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER...
ESPECIALLY THE NAM. SO FELT THERE WAS ENOUGH EVIDENCE TO EXPAND THE
HIGH WIND WARNING A LITTLE TO THE EAST AND SOUTH. TO THE EAST OF
THIS AREA DEFINITE WIND ADVISORY LOOKS GOOD AND WILL BE CLOSE TO
HIGH WIND WARNING IN LOCATIONS NEXT TO THE HIGH WIND WARNING. DID
RAISE THE SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS SOME BASED ON THE GOOD COUPLING OF
LAPSE RATES AND STRONGEST MID LEVEL WINDS. HOPE THE MAV NWP IS NOT
CORRECT WITH SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 45 TO 51 KNOTS AT KITR AND
KGLD. BLOWING DUST LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET AND ADJUSTED THIS AREA
SLIGHTLY BASED ON THE LATEST DATA.
AS STATED ABOVE...THE HRRR CATCHING THE DEWPOINTS WELL. IT HAS THE
LOWEST DEWPOINTS IN THE CURRENT RED FLAG WARNING. SO LEFT THE RED
FLAG WARNING ALONE. HOWEVER...DAY SHIFT WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR AN
EASTWARD SHIFT OF THESE LOW DEWPOINTS. NEXT COMES THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES. AIR MASS IS VERY DRY THROUGH A SIGNIFICANT DEPTH THROUGH
THE DAY. THE AIR MASS LOOKS CAPPED IN THE EASTERN HALF THROUGH THE
DAY WHERE THE INSTABILITY AXIS SETS UP. BASED ON WHAT THE SOUNDINGS
LOOK LIKE AM NOT TERRIBLY EXCITED ABOUT THE CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE JET ON THE FRONT
SIDE OF THE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA AROUND 06Z. THERE IS ENOUGH
IN THERE TO KEEP A LOW CHANCE BUT EXPECT THE MOST WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE AND THREAT OF SEVERE ACTIVITY TO BE TO THE EAST OF THE AREA.
KEPT THE THUNDERSTORMS IN THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH THE LINGERING LIFT.
SINCE THE STRONGEST AND CLOSE OFF PORTION OF THE TROUGH IS TOO OUR
SOUTH...REMOVED THE PRECIPITATION ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE SYSTEM.
SOUNDINGS ARE VERY DRY AS WELL.
DID NOT HAVE LOT OF TIME TO LOOK AT TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY THE
MAXES. MODEL GUIDANCE IS WARMER AND THAT MAKES SENSE WITH A SLOWER
ARRIVING SYSTEM AND LESS CLOUD COVER. USED MAV/GFS SINCE IT DID VERY
WELL YESTERDAY.
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...ABOVE MENTIONED JET LINGERS NEAR OR OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. SO KEPT THE
THREAT OF PRECIPITATION IN THERE DUE TO THE JET IS CLOSE BY.
OTHERWISE...KEPT THE REST OF THE AREA DRY THROUGH THE REST OF
THE DAY SINCE SOUNDINGS ARE VERY DRY THROUGH A SIGNIFICANT DEPTH.
SINCE LOOKS LIKE SYSTEM IS REMAINING RATHER FAR SOUTH...LIFT IS
WEAK AND/OR DISORGANIZED ALONG WITH A DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE...KEPT
THE FORECAST DRY FOR THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. AGAIN DID NOT
HAVE A LOT OF TIME TO LOOK AT TEMPERATURES BUT BELIEVE THE WARMER
GUIDANCE IS GOING TO WORK BETTER SINCE DO NOT EXPECT VERY MUCH IF ANY
PRECIPITATION AND LITTLE CLOUD COVER.
TUESDAY...NORTH WINDS AND SOME COOL AIR ADVECTION MOVES IN DURING
THE DAY SO TEMPERATURES WERE KEPT COOL/LOWERED. WINDS MAY GET A
LITTLE BREEZY BEHIND THE UPPER LOW TO OUR SOUTH. MODELS SHOW A
PRETTY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE PLUS LIFT REMAINS WEAK/UNORGANIZED.
HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT INSTABILITY COULD DEVELOP
OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. SO KEPT A
SLIGHT CHANCE IN THAT AREA AND REMOVED PRECIPITATION FROM THE REST
OF THE AREA.
THANKS TO ALL THAT COLLABORATED.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1254 AM MDT SUN MAR 18 2012
UPPER LOW WILL CUT OFF OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AT THE BEGINNING
OF THIS PERIOD AND SLOWLY MOVE EAST. HOWEVER IT WILL BE TOO FAR
AWAY TO IMPACT THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA. UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE
THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...RESULTING IN DRY
CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1205 PM MDT SUN MAR 18 2012
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE AREA SHOW WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF
40KTS AND ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 50 TO 55KTS THIS AFTERNOON AT KGLD
WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER WINDS EXPECTED AT KMCK BEFORE WINDS BEGIN TO
DECREASE OVERNIGHT. A PERIOD OF REDUCED VISIBILITY WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON DURING PEAK WINDS DUE TO BLOWING DUST GIVEN
THE VERY DRY CONDITIONS AND RECENT TILLING OF FIELDS. THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON BUT GIVEN
LOCATION OF DRYLINE AND CONVERGENCE ZONE...FEEL THAT KMCK WILL
HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING SOME CONVECTION. HOWEVER...CONVECTION
MAY START FURTHER SOUTH AND TIMING IS STILL UNCERTAIN SO HAVE JUST
MADE MENTION OF CB GROUP FOR NOW.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ090>092.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ252>254.
KS...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT /9 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ001-002-013-014-027-041.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT /9 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ001-002-013-014-027-028-041-042.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ003-004-015-016-
028-029-042.
NE...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT /9 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ079-080.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT /9 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ079-080.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ081.
&&
$$
UPDATE...PMM
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM....024
AVIATION...PMM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
908 AM MDT SUN MAR 18 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 851 AM MDT SUN MAR 18 2012
UPDATE TO INCLUDE ADJUSTING TEMPERATURE AND WINDS THIS MORNING.
WILL NEED TO WATCH WINDS CLOSELY THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON GIVEN
HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. ALSO WILL NEED
TO MONITOR THE POSITION OF THE DRYLINE TODAY TO SEE IF RED FLAG
WARNING MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED FURTHER EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM MDT SUN MAR 18 2012
MAIN FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE HIGH WINDS/FIRE WEATHER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH TONIGHT. SATELLITE SHOWING THE FLOW HAS
BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WEST COAST OF NORTH
AMERICA. SOUTHERN END OF UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG AND SPLIT OFF
FROM THE NORTHERN PORTION. WARM AND DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE OVER THE
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY.
EXTREMELY STRONG JET ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THE GFS
FOLLOWED BY THE ECMWF WERE DOING THE BEST WITH THIS. AT MID LEVELS
THE GFS AND UKMET FOLLOWED BY THE ECMWF WAS DOING THE BEST ON THE
HEIGHT FIELD AND ESPECIALLY THE PLACEMENT OF THE SYSTEM OVER CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA. ALTHOUGH THEY ALL TENDED TO BE TOO MOIST AT MID LEVELS.
MODELS WERE NOT DOING WELL WITH THE DRY LINE/LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
THEY TENDED TO NOT HAVE THE DRY LINE FAR ENOUGH WEST. THE HRRR
FOLLOWED BY THE RUC/CANADIAN WERE CATCHING THIS THE BEST.
TODAY/TONIGHT...WINDS AND FIRE WEATHER THE INITIAL PROBLEMS. MAIN
ISSUE IS IF THE AREA OF THE HIGH WIND WARNING NEEDS TO BE EXPANDED.
THE GFS WAS CATCHING THE 700 MB WINDS THE BEST WITH OTHER MODELS
NOT TOO FAR BEHIND. MODELS SHOWING VERY GOOD LAPSE RATES ALONG AND TO
THE WEST OF THE COLORADO/KANSAS BORDER. THIS PLUS THE AREA OF 50
KNOT PLUS WINDS EXPAND A LITTLE TO THE EAST DURING THE DAY. THIS
CORRESPONDING WELL TO THE EXPECTED POSITION OF THE DRYLINE WHICH
THE HRRR CONTINUES THROUGH 08Z TO HAVE A VERY GOOD HANDLE ON.
ALSO BELIEVE THE MODELS ARE OVERDOING THE MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER...
ESPECIALLY THE NAM. SO FELT THERE WAS ENOUGH EVIDENCE TO EXPAND THE
HIGH WIND WARNING A LITTLE TO THE EAST AND SOUTH. TO THE EAST OF
THIS AREA DEFINITE WIND ADVISORY LOOKS GOOD AND WILL BE CLOSE TO
HIGH WIND WARNING IN LOCATIONS NEXT TO THE HIGH WIND WARNING. DID
RAISE THE SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS SOME BASED ON THE GOOD COUPLING OF
LAPSE RATES AND STRONGEST MID LEVEL WINDS. HOPE THE MAV NWP IS NOT
CORRECT WITH SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 45 TO 51 KNOTS AT KITR AND
KGLD. BLOWING DUST LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET AND ADJUSTED THIS AREA
SLIGHTLY BASED ON THE LATEST DATA.
AS STATED ABOVE...THE HRRR CATCHING THE DEWPOINTS WELL. IT HAS THE
LOWEST DEWPOINTS IN THE CURRENT RED FLAG WARNING. SO LEFT THE RED
FLAG WARNING ALONE. HOWEVER...DAY SHIFT WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR AN
EASTWARD SHIFT OF THESE LOW DEWPOINTS. NEXT COMES THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES. AIR MASS IS VERY DRY THROUGH A SIGNIFICANT DEPTH THROUGH
THE DAY. THE AIR MASS LOOKS CAPPED IN THE EASTERN HALF THROUGH THE
DAY WHERE THE INSTABILITY AXIS SETS UP. BASED ON WHAT THE SOUNDINGS
LOOK LIKE AM NOT TERRIBLY EXCITED ABOUT THE CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE JET ON THE FRONT
SIDE OF THE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA AROUND 06Z. THERE IS ENOUGH
IN THERE TO KEEP A LOW CHANCE BUT EXPECT THE MOST WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE AND THREAT OF SEVERE ACTIVITY TO BE TO THE EAST OF THE AREA.
KEPT THE THUNDERSTORMS IN THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH THE LINGERING LIFT.
SINCE THE STRONGEST AND CLOSE OFF PORTION OF THE TROUGH IS TOO OUR
SOUTH...REMOVED THE PRECIPITATION ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE SYSTEM.
SOUNDINGS ARE VERY DRY AS WELL.
DID NOT HAVE LOT OF TIME TO LOOK AT TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY THE
MAXES. MODEL GUIDANCE IS WARMER AND THAT MAKES SENSE WITH A SLOWER
ARRIVING SYSTEM AND LESS CLOUD COVER. USED MAV/GFS SINCE IT DID VERY
WELL YESTERDAY.
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...ABOVE MENTIONED JET LINGERS NEAR OR OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. SO KEPT THE
THREAT OF PRECIPITATION IN THERE DUE TO THE JET IS CLOSE BY.
OTHERWISE...KEPT THE REST OF THE AREA DRY THROUGH THE REST OF
THE DAY SINCE SOUNDINGS ARE VERY DRY THROUGH A SIGNIFICANT DEPTH.
SINCE LOOKS LIKE SYSTEM IS REMAINING RATHER FAR SOUTH...LIFT IS
WEAK AND/OR DISORGANIZED ALONG WITH A DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE...KEPT
THE FORECAST DRY FOR THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. AGAIN DID NOT
HAVE A LOT OF TIME TO LOOK AT TEMPERATURES BUT BELIEVE THE WARMER
GUIDANCE IS GOING TO WORK BETTER SINCE DO NOT EXPECT VERY MUCH IF ANY
PRECIPITATION AND LITTLE CLOUD COVER.
TUESDAY...NORTH WINDS AND SOME COOL AIR ADVECTION MOVES IN DURING
THE DAY SO TEMPERATURES WERE KEPT COOL/LOWERED. WINDS MAY GET A
LITTLE BREEZY BEHIND THE UPPER LOW TO OUR SOUTH. MODELS SHOW A
PRETTY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE PLUS LIFT REMAINS WEAK/UNORGANIZED.
HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT INSTABILITY COULD DEVELOP
OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. SO KEPT A
SLIGHT CHANCE IN THAT AREA AND REMOVED PRECIPITATION FROM THE REST
OF THE AREA.
THANKS TO ALL THAT COLLABORATED.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1254 AM MDT SUN MAR 18 2012
UPPER LOW WILL CUT OFF OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AT THE BEGINNING
OF THIS PERIOD AND SLOWLY MOVE EAST. HOWEVER IT WILL BE TOO FAR
AWAY TO IMPACT THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA. UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE
THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...RESULTING IN DRY
CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 543 AM MDT SUN MAR 18 2012
FIRST ISSUE WILL BE THE STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS THAT WILL DEVELOP
BY 18Z TODAY. STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT KGLD WHERE THE
BETTER LAPSE RATES RESIDE. EXPECT THESE WINDS TO PERIODICALLY
REDUCE VISIBILITY DUE TO BLOWING DUST. HARD TO PINPOINT THE BEST
TIME FOR THIS TO OCCUR OR EXACTLY WHAT VISIBILITIES WILL OCCUR. SO
BROADBRUSHED MVFR VISIBILITIES FOR MOST OF THE FIRST HALF OF THE
PERIOD. THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING WITH THE
BEST CHANCE EAST OF KGLD. EXPECT STORMS TO BE ISOLATED IN NATURE
WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH WHERE WILL INITIALLY FORM DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE WHERE THE DRY LINE WILL DEVELOP. AS A RESULT...ONLY PUT
CB IN DURING THE EVENING AT KMCK. FURTHER REFINING WILL BE NEEDED.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ090>092.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ252>254.
KS...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT /9 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ001-002-013-014-027-041.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT /9 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ001-002-013-014-027-028-041-042.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ003-004-015-016-
028-029-042.
NE...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT /9 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ079-080.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT /9 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ079-080.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ081.
&&
$$
UPDATE...PMM
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM....024
AVIATION...BULLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
548 AM MDT SUN MAR 18 2012
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM MDT SUN MAR 18 2012
MAIN FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE HIGH WINDS/FIRE WEATHER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH TONIGHT. SATELLITE SHOWING THE FLOW HAS
BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WEST COAST OF NORTH
AMERICA. SOUTHERN END OF UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG AND SPLIT OFF
FROM THE NORTHERN PORTION. WARM AND DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE OVER THE
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY.
EXTREMELY STRONG JET ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THE GFS
FOLLOWED BY THE ECMWF WERE DOING THE BEST WITH THIS. AT MID LEVELS
THE GFS AND UKMET FOLLOWED BY THE ECMWF WAS DOING THE BEST ON THE
HEIGHT FIELD AND ESPECIALLY THE PLACEMENT OF THE SYSTEM OVER CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA. ALTHOUGH THEY ALL TENDED TO BE TOO MOIST AT MID LEVELS.
MODELS WERE NOT DOING WELL WITH THE DRY LINE/LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
THEY TENDED TO NOT HAVE THE DRY LINE FAR ENOUGH WEST. THE HRRR
FOLLOWED BY THE RUC/CANADIAN WERE CATCHING THIS THE BEST.
TODAY/TONIGHT...WINDS AND FIRE WEATHER THE INITIAL PROBLEMS. MAIN
ISSUE IS IF THE AREA OF THE HIGH WIND WARNING NEEDS TO BE EXPANDED.
THE GFS WAS CATCHING THE 700 MB WINDS THE BEST WITH OTHER MODELS
NOT TOO FAR BEHIND. MODELS SHOWING VERY GOOD LAPSE RATES ALONG AND TO
THE WEST OF THE COLORAD/KANSAS BORDER. THIS PLUS THE AREA OF 50
KNOT PLUS WINDS EXPAND A LITTLE TO THE EAST DURING THE DAY. THIS
CORRESPONDING WELL TO THE EXPECTED POSITION OF THE DRYLINE WHICH
THE HRRR CONTINUES THROUGH 08Z TO HAVE A VERY GOOD HANDLE ON.
ALSO BELIEVE THE MODELS ARE OVERDOING THE MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER...
ESPECIALLY THE NAM. SO FELT THERE WAS ENOUGH EVIDENCE TO EXPAND THE
HIGH WIND WARNING A LITTLE TO THE EAST AND SOUTH. TO THE EAST OF
THIS AREA DEFINITE WIND ADVISORY LOOKS GOOD AND WILL BE CLOSE TO
HIGH WIND WARNING IN LOCATIONS NEXT TO THE HIGH WIND WARNING. DID
RAISE THE SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS SOME BASED ON THE GOOD COUPLING OF
LAPSE RATES AND STRONGEST MID LEVEL WINDS. HOPE THE MAV NWP IS NOT
CORRECT WITH SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 45 TO 51 KNOTS AT KITR AND
KGLD. BLOWING DUST LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET AND ADJUSTED THIS AREA
SLIGHTLY BASED ON THE LATEST DATA.
AS STATED ABOVE...THE HRRR CATCHING THE DEWPOINTS WELL. IT HAS THE
LOWEST DEWPOINTS IN THE CURRENT RED FLAG WARNING. SO LEFT THE RED
FLAG WARNING ALONE. HOWEVER...DAY SHIFT WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR AN
EASTWARD SHIFT OF THESE LOW DEWPOINTS. NEXT COMES THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES. AIR MASS IS VERY DRY THROUGH A SIGNIFICANT DEPTH THROUGH
THE DAY. THE AIR MASS LOOKS CAPPED IN THE EASTERN HALF THROUGH THE
DAY WHERE THE INSTABILITY AXIS SETS UP. BASED ON WHAT THE SOUNDINGS
LOOK LIKE AM NOT TERRIBLY EXCITED ABOUT THE CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE JET ON THE FRONT
SIDE OF THE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA AROUND 06Z. THERE IS ENOUGH
IN THERE TO KEEP A LOW CHANCE BUT EXPECT THE MOST WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE AND THREAT OF SEVERE ACTIVITY TO BE TO THE EAST OF THE AREA.
KEPT THE THUNDERSTORMS IN THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH THE LINGERING LIFT.
SINCE THE STRONGEST AND CLOSE OFF PORTION OF THE TROUGH IS TOO OUR
SOUTH...REMOVED THE PRECIPITATION ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE SYSTEM.
SOUNDINGS ARE VERY DRY AS WELL.
DID NOT HAVE LOT OF TIME TO LOOK AT TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY THE
MAXES. MODEL GUIDANCE IS WARMER AND THAT MAKES SENSE WITH A SLOWER
ARRIVING SYSTEM AND LESS CLOUD COVER. USED MAV/GFS SINCE IT DID VERY
WELL YESTERDAY.
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...ABOVE MENTIONED JET LINGERS NEAR OR OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. SO KEPT THE
THREAT OF PRECIPITATION IN THERE DUE TO THE JET IS CLOSE BY.
OTHERWISE...KEPT THE REST OF THE AREA DRY THROUGH THE REST OF
THE DAY SINCE SOUNDINGS ARE VERY DRY THROUGH A SIGNIFICANT DEPTH.
SINCE LOOKS LIKE SYSTEM IS REMAINING RATHER FAR SOUTH...LIFT IS
WEAK AND/OR DISORGANIZED ALONG WITH A DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE...KEPT
THE FORECAST DRY FOR THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. AGAIN DID NOT
HAVE A LOT OF TIME TO LOOK AT TEMPERATURES BUT BELIEVE THE WARMER
GUIDANCE IS GOING TO WORK BETTER SINCE DO NOT EXPECT VERY MUCH IF ANY
PRECIPITATION AND LITTLE CLOUD COVER.
TUESDAY...NORTH WINDS AND SOME COOL AIR ADVECTION MOVES IN DURING
THE DAY SO TEMPERATURES WERE KEPT COOL/LOWERED. WINDS MAY GET A
LITTLE BREEZY BEHIND THE UPPER LOW TO OUR SOUTH. MODELS SHOW A
PRETTY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE PLUS LIFT REMAINS WEAK/UNORGANIZED.
HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT INSTABILITY COULD DEVELOP
OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. SO KEPT A
SLIGHT CHANCE IN THAT AREA AND REMOVED PRECIPITATION FROM THE REST
OF THE AREA.
THANKS TO ALL THAT COLLABORATED.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1254 AM MDT SUN MAR 18 2012
UPPER LOW WILL CUT OFF OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AT THE BEGINNING
OF THIS PERIOD AND SLOWLY MOVE EAST. HOWEVER IT WILL BE TOO FAR
AWAY TO IMPACT THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA. UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE
THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...RESULTING IN DRY
CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 543 AM MDT SUN MAR 18 2012
FIRST ISSUE WILL BE THE STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS THAT WILL DEVELOP
BY 18Z TODAY. STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT KGLD WHERE THE
BETTER LAPSE RATES RESIDE. EXPECT THESE WINDS TO PERIODICALLY
REDUCE VISIBILITY DUE TO BLOWING DUST. HARD TO PINPOINT THE BEST
TIME FOR THIS TO OCCUR OR EXACTLY WHAT VISIBILITIES WILL OCCUR. SO
BROADBRUSHED MVFR VISIBILITIES FOR MOST OF THE FIRST HALF OF THE
PERIOD. THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING WITH THE
BEST CHANCE EAST OF KGLD. EXPECT STORMS TO BE ISOLATED IN NATURE
WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH WHERE WILL INITIALLY FORM DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE WHERE THE DRY LINE WILL DEVELOP. AS A RESULT...ONLY PUT
CB IN DURING THE EVENING AT KMCK. FURTHER REFINING WILL BE NEEDED.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR COZ090>092.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR COZ252>254.
KS...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 9 AM MDT /10 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING TO 8 PM
MDT /9 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR KSZ001-002-013-014-027-041.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM MDT /10 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING TO 8 PM
MDT /9 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR KSZ001-002-013-014-027-028-
041-042.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR KSZ003-004-015-016-028-029-042.
NE...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 9 AM MDT /10 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING TO 8 PM
MDT /9 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NEZ079-080.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM MDT /10 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING TO 8 PM
MDT /9 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NEZ079-080.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR NEZ081.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM....024
AVIATION...BULLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
317 AM MDT SUN MAR 18 2012
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM MDT SUN MAR 18 2012
MAIN FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE HIGH WINDS/FIRE WEATHER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH TONIGHT. SATELLITE SHOWING THE FLOW HAS
BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WEST COAST OF NORTH
AMERICA. SOUTHERN END OF UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG AND SPLIT OFF
FROM THE NORTHERN PORTION. WARM AND DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE OVER THE
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY.
EXTREMELY STRONG JET ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THE GFS
FOLLOWED BY THE ECMWF WERE DOING THE BEST WITH THIS. AT MID LEVELS
THE GFS AND UKMET FOLLOWED BY THE ECMWF WAS DOING THE BEST ON THE
HEIGHT FIELD AND ESPECIALLY THE PLACEMENT OF THE SYSTEM OVER CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA. ALTHOUGH THEY ALL TENDED TO BE TOO MOIST AT MID LEVELS.
MODELS WERE NOT DOING WELL WITH THE DRY LINE/LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
THEY TENDED TO NOT HAVE THE DRY LINE FAR ENOUGH WEST. THE HRRR
FOLLOWED BY THE RUC/CANADIAN WERE CATCHING THIS THE BEST.
TODAY/TONIGHT...WINDS AND FIRE WEATHER THE INITIAL PROBLEMS. MAIN
ISSUE IS IF THE AREA OF THE HIGH WIND WARNING NEEDS TO BE EXPANDED.
THE GFS WAS CATCHING THE 700 MB WINDS THE BEST WITH OTHER MODELS
NOT TOO FAR BEHIND. MODELS SHOWING VERY GOOD LAPSE RATES ALONG AND TO
THE WEST OF THE COLORAD/KANSAS BORDER. THIS PLUS THE AREA OF 50
KNOT PLUS WINDS EXPAND A LITTLE TO THE EAST DURING THE DAY. THIS
CORRESPONDING WELL TO THE EXPECTED POSITION OF THE DRYLINE WHICH
THE HRRR CONTINUES THROUGH 08Z TO HAVE A VERY GOOD HANDLE ON.
ALSO BELIEVE THE MODELS ARE OVERDOING THE MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER...
ESPECIALLY THE NAM. SO FELT THERE WAS ENOUGH EVIDENCE TO EXPAND THE
HIGH WIND WARNING A LITTLE TO THE EAST AND SOUTH. TO THE EAST OF
THIS AREA DEFINITE WIND ADVISORY LOOKS GOOD AND WILL BE CLOSE TO
HIGH WIND WARNING IN LOCATIONS NEXT TO THE HIGH WIND WARNING. DID
RAISE THE SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS SOME BASED ON THE GOOD COUPLING OF
LAPSE RATES AND STRONGEST MID LEVEL WINDS. HOPE THE MAV NWP IS NOT
CORRECT WITH SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 45 TO 51 KNOTS AT KITR AND
KGLD. BLOWING DUST LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET AND ADJUSTED THIS AREA
SLIGHTLY BASED ON THE LATEST DATA.
AS STATED ABOVE...THE HRRR CATCHING THE DEWPOINTS WELL. IT HAS THE
LOWEST DEWPOINTS IN THE CURRENT RED FLAG WARNING. SO LEFT THE RED
FLAG WARNING ALONE. HOWEVER...DAY SHIFT WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR AN
EASTWARD SHIFT OF THESE LOW DEWPOINTS. NEXT COMES THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES. AIR MASS IS VERY DRY THROUGH A SIGNIFICANT DEPTH THROUGH
THE DAY. THE AIR MASS LOOKS CAPPED IN THE EASTERN HALF THROUGH THE
DAY WHERE THE INSTABILITY AXIS SETS UP. BASED ON WHAT THE SOUNDINGS
LOOK LIKE AM NOT TERRIBLY EXCITED ABOUT THE CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE JET ON THE FRONT
SIDE OF THE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA AROUND 06Z. THERE IS ENOUGH
IN THERE TO KEEP A LOW CHANCE BUT EXPECT THE MOST WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE AND THREAT OF SEVERE ACTIVITY TO BE TO THE EAST OF THE AREA.
KEPT THE THUNDERSTORMS IN THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH THE LINGERING LIFT.
SINCE THE STRONGEST AND CLOSE OFF PORTION OF THE TROUGH IS TOO OUR
SOUTH...REMOVED THE PRECIPITATION ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE SYSTEM.
SOUNDINGS ARE VERY DRY AS WELL.
DID NOT HAVE LOT OF TIME TO LOOK AT TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY THE
MAXES. MODEL GUIDANCE IS WARMER AND THAT MAKES SENSE WITH A SLOWER
ARRIVING SYSTEM AND LESS CLOUD COVER. USED MAV/GFS SINCE IT DID VERY
WELL YESTERDAY.
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...ABOVE MENTIONED JET LINGERS NEAR OR OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. SO KEPT THE
THREAT OF PRECIPITATION IN THERE DUE TO THE JET IS CLOSE BY.
OTHERWISE...KEPT THE REST OF THE AREA DRY THROUGH THE REST OF
THE DAY SINCE SOUNDINGS ARE VERY DRY THROUGH A SIGNIFICANT DEPTH.
SINCE LOOKS LIKE SYSTEM IS REMAINING RATHER FAR SOUTH...LIFT IS
WEAK AND/OR DISORGANIZED ALONG WITH A DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE...KEPT
THE FORECAST DRY FOR THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. AGAIN DID NOT
HAVE A LOT OF TIME TO LOOK AT TEMPERATURES BUT BELIEVE THE WARMER
GUIDANCE IS GOING TO WORK BETTER SINCE DO NOT EXPECT VERY MUCH IF ANY
PRECIPITATION AND LITTLE CLOUD COVER.
TUESDAY...NORTH WINDS AND SOME COOL AIR ADVECTION MOVES IN DURING
THE DAY SO TEMPERATURES WERE KEPT COOL/LOWERED. WINDS MAY GET A
LITTLE BREEZY BEHIND THE UPPER LOW TO OUR SOUTH. MODELS SHOW A
PRETTY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE PLUS LIFT REMAINS WEAK/UNORGANIZED.
HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT INSTABILITY COULD DEVELOP
OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. SO KEPT A
SLIGHT CHANCE IN THAT AREA AND REMOVED PRECIPITATION FROM THE REST
OF THE AREA.
THANKS TO ALL THAT COLLABORATED.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1254 AM MDT SUN MAR 18 2012
UPPER LOW WILL CUT OFF OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AT THE BEGINNING
OF THIS PERIOD AND SLOWLY MOVE EAST. HOWEVER IT WILL BE TOO FAR
AWAY TO IMPACT THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA. UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE
THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...RESULTING IN DRY
CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1044 PM MDT SAT MAR 17 2012
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A DEEPENING SURFACE TROUGH WILL KEEP
SOUTH WIND BREEZY OVERNIGHT AT KGLD AND KMCK. WINDS WILL INCREASE
SUNDAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 50KTS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS
A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM AT KGLD IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH SO WILL NOT EVEN PUT IN A CB GROUP THERE.
CHANCES ARE EVEN LESS AT KMCK. OTHERWISE CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR
WITH ONLY A FEW MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR COZ090>092.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR COZ252>254.
KS...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 9 AM MDT /10 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING TO 8 PM
MDT /9 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR KSZ001-002-013-014-027-041.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM MDT /10 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING TO 8 PM
MDT /9 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR KSZ001-002-013-014-027-028-
041-042.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR KSZ003-004-015-016-028-029-042.
NE...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 9 AM MDT /10 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING TO 8 PM
MDT /9 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NEZ079-080.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM MDT /10 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING TO 8 PM
MDT /9 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NEZ079-080.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR NEZ081.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM....024
AVIATION...FS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
144 AM EDT SUN MAR 18 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 145 AM EDT SUN MAR 18 2012
UPDATED POPS AGAIN TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT ACTIVITY OVER EASTERN
KENTUCKY. IR SAT SHOWS STORMS STILL GENERALLY MAINTAINING STRENGTH
BUT SOME WEAKENING IS STILL EXPECTED AS THIS AREA OF STORMS
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH
12Z THIS MORNING...AS THE LATEST RADAR IMAGERY REVEALS A NEARLY SOLID
AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EXTENDING FROM THE TENNESSEE BORDER
NORTHWARD TO THE MOREHEAD AREA.
GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE DONE FOR THE NIGHT.
THE BAD NEWS IS THAT THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE STILL CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A QUICK
CALL TO LOCAL EM/S AROUND THE CUMBERLAND COUNTIES REVEALED SOME MINOR
NUISANCE FLOODING AROUND PULASKI AND ROCKCASTLE COUNTIES AND HAVE
ISSUED AN URBAN/SMALL STREAM ADVISORY THRU 330 AM TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
NEXT WAVE PUSHING UP FROM NRN/CENTRAL TN.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 810 PM EDT SAT MAR 17 2012
AREA OF TSTMS MOVING INTO OUR SWRN COUNTIES AS EXPECTED WITH SOME
ENHANCEMENT OVER THE LAST HOUR. HAVE RECEIVED A COUPLE OF REPORTS OF
DIME SIZED HAIL WITH THESE STORMS AND HAVE UPDATED GRIDS TO BETTER
REFLECT POPS THU THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. STILL EXPECTING SOME WEAKENING
AFTER ABOUT 10 PM WITH THE LOSS OF INSTABILITY...THOUGH WITH A
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE NOTED MOVING INTO WRN/CENTRAL KY ON WV IMAGERY
CANNOT RULE OUT MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL UPDATE ZONES AND HWO TO HIGHLIGHT THE HAIL
THREAT THRU THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAINERS THAT COULD PRODUCE SOME LOCALIZED NUISANCE FLOODING THRU
THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 435 PM EDT SAT MAR 17 2012
SFC BASED INSTABILITY STILL INCREASING OVER THE AREA TO THE POINT OF
LOOKING AT A FEW...SHORT LIVED...ISOLATED SHOWERS POPPING AROUND
NERN KY WITH NO LIGHTNING ATTM. MORE ROBUST ACTIVITY OVER NRN/CENTRAL
TN WOULD BE MOVING INTO OUR CUMBERLAND COUNTIES IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS
WHERE LAPS AND SPC MESO ANALYSIS SHOWS SBCAPE CLIMBING TO AROUND
2-3K. GIVEN THE WEAK KINEMATIC FIELDS...NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING TOO
STRONG BUT SLOW MOVING HEAVY RAINERS COULD POSE SOME SHORT TERM HYDRO
PROBLEMS LATER THIS EVENING. WILL DEFINITELY KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS
ACTIVITY AND UPDATE PRIOR TO 00Z IF NECESSARY. OTW...THE CURRENT
FORECAST APPEARS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE SITUATION AND NO MAJOR
CHANGES ARE NEEDED ATTM.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT SAT MAR 17 2012
CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA AS OF 19Z HAS A ROBUST CU FIELD
DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL KENTUCKY EXTENDING INTO THE BLUE GRASS
COUNTIES AND ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR. SO FAR TODAY...ONLY A FEW
SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED AND JUDGING BY WHATS GOING ON UPSTREAM...THE
WEAK WAVE PICKED OUT IN THE RUC AND SREF...HAS ONLY BEEN ABLE TO GEN
UP A FEW SHOWERS. IT SEEMS WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT TILL TONIGHT FOR THE
STRONGER WAVE OUT IN WESTERN KENTUCKY TO MOVE INTO THE OUR CWFA TO
PRODUCE ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BY THIS POINT...THE
INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH FROM THE DAY WILL HAVE BEEN PRETTY MUCH CUT
OFF SO EXPECTING JUST SOME RUN OF THE MILL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
WITH AMPLE MOISTURE FROM THE GULF CONTINUING...THE WAVE MOVING
THROUGH TONIGHT WILL PRODUCE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. WATER VAPOR ALSO HINTED AT A
STRONG MOISTURE FLUX IN FROM THE BAJA REGION WITH A FEW EMBEDDED
WAVES AND THEREFORE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF PERIODIC SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT SEEMS LIKELY. BY DAYTIME
HEATING FOR SUNDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD
PERSIST. AT THIS POINT...DUE TO THE INCH AND A TENTH
PWATS...THINKING THAT RAINFALL DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE ONLY
FACTOR TO MONITOR CLOSELY. THE CONTINUED CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA
WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF STRONG STORMS IN CHECK BUT STORMS WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT SAT MAR 17 2012
THE MODELS BEGIN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST IN DECENT
AGREEMENT ALOFT. THEY ALL HAVE THE FULL LATITUDE WESTERN TROUGH
DESCENDING AND DEEPENING INTO A CUT OFF LOW OVER NORTHERN TEXAS
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. THIS RESULTS IN A STRONG DOWNSTREAM RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE APPALACHIANS FROM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
AROUND THIS TIME...THOUGH...THE MODELS START TO DIVERGE FROM EACH
OTHER WITH RESPECT TO THE THIS KEY FEATURE. THE ECMWF AND GEM MOVE
THE LOW EASTWARD QUICKER THAN THE GFS AND THIS DIFFERENCE CONTINUES
INTO THE DAY THURSDAY AS IT PIVOTS OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND STARTS TO ENCROACH ON THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. BY
THIS TIME THE WEAKER ECMWF IS ABOUT 200 MILES EAST OF THE GFS AND
THE GEM ABOUT THE SAME DISTANCE TO THE SOUTHEAST. GIVEN THE MID
LEVEL JET RUNNING SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
CONTINENT...PREFER THE SLOWER GFS IN THIS CUTOFF FAVORING FLOW
PATTERN. AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY CROSSES THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND
MOVES OVER WESTERN TENNESSEE AND KENTUCKY...THE ECMWF WILL START TO
RETROGRADE. AS A RESULT...BY FRIDAY EVENING THEY HAVE A SIMILAR
MAGNITUDE AND PLACEMENT FOR THE LOW...PRETTY MUCH CENTERED OVER EAST
KENTUCKY. FURTHER NORTH...THOUGH...THEY DIFFER ON THE MAGNITUDE OF A
TROUGH IN THE JET STREAM SO THAT EVEN THE SIMILARITIES OVER OUR AREA
TO END THE WEEK DOES NOT ENHANCE CONFIDENCE. THE MODELS THEN TAKE
THE REMAINS OF THEIR LOWS SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS AND
TO THE EAST COAST...AS RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS. DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE WITH HOW THE UPPER LOW IS FINALLY KICKED OUT OF THE
REGION WILL DOWN PLAY THIS POTENTIAL FOR NOW.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A CONTINUATION OF OUR RECENT HEAT
WAVE. THERE WILL BE A LULL IN THE SHOWERS AND STORMS OF THE PAST FEW
DAYS ON MONDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ENOUGH TO CAP SUPPRESS ANY
CONVECTION AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE DRIES OUT THE AIR MASS A BIT. EAST
KENTUCKY WILL REMAIN BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A
BAND OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE STACKED LOW AND ITS OCCLUDED
FRONT SLOWLY MOVE DEEPER INTO KENTUCKY. THE WARM WEATHER THAT
PRECEDED THE FRONT WILL HAVE ITS LAST HURRAH ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE
MATURE LOW...ITS OCCLUDED COLD SECTOR...AND RENEWED RAINS WILL
COMBINE TO RETURN US TO TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR AT THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND TO START THE WEEKEND. THE
BEST CONVECTIVE THREAT LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING
AS THAT BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL ALSO BE THE PEAK TIME
FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...AS WELL. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE
AREA...JUST THE SHOWERS AND STRAY THUNDERSTORMS TYPICALLY FOUND
SCATTERED AROUND THE CENTER OF A MATURE LOW CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE DAY FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY.
THE GRID LOAD CAME IN REASONABLE ENOUGH CONSIDERING THE SLUGGISH
MOVEMENT OF THE SFC FEATURES TO AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
DID FINE TUNE THE POPS FOR A SLOWER ARRIVAL ON THURSDAY...
ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST. PUT A DIURNAL COMPONENT INTO THE POP GRIDS
THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THE EXTENDED. ALSO...RAISED MAX TEMPS A
BIT FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND ADDED MINOR TERRAIN BASED
ADJUSTMENTS BENEATH THAT BUILDING RIDGE EACH NIGHT FROM MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 135 AM EDT SUN MAR 18 2012
AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES
THROUGH 8Z TONIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTING WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS. CLOUD
BASES AT THIS TIME ARE RATHER HIGH...WITH CIGS OF 4-8K COMMON ACROSS
EASTERN KENTUCKY. BASED ON THE LATEST INFORMATION AVAILABLE...THIS
TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. THERE COULD BE
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR VSBYS WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS. AFTER A BRIEF
LULL IN THE ACTION EARLY THIS MORNING...A SECOND PERIOD OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AROUND 15Z AND LAST THROUGH THE END
OF THE DAY. THE RAIN WILL MOST LIKELY BE COMING TO AN END AROUND 1Z
TONIGHT. AFTER 0 OR 1Z TONIGHT...THE CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY BREAK UP AS
THEY MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM....GREIF
AVIATION...AR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
106 AM EDT SUN MAR 18 2012
.Update...
Issued at 1030 PM EDT Mar 17 2012
Two areas of convection continue to push across the forecast area
this evening. One is a NW-SE arc of storms from near Salem Indiana
southeastward to near Standford Kentucky. The second area of storms
is down across our southeast sections near the Lake Cumberland
area. These storms are expected to continue to move eastward at 25
to 30 MPH and will be capable of producing very heavy rains, gusty
winds and quite a lightning show. These storms are moving through
an uncontaminated/unstable environment which is slowly stabilizing
due to the loss of heating. Mixed-layer CAPE values are still
around 1000 J/Kg but CIN is spreading over the region as the PBL
stabilizes. For the next several hours, have inserted likely PoPs
for area generally east of I-65. Expect the bulk of this activity
to slide east of our forecast area by midnight-100 AM EDT.
Further west, convective line of storms continues to march
eastward. This convection is being forced due to a mid-level wave
rotating from eastern MO into southern IL. The latest models take
this wave northeastward into northern Indiana overnight. Airmass
out ahead of this line is slightly unstable with mixed-layer CAPE
values between 800-1100 J/Kg. However, latest radar data from KPAH
suggests that these storms are becoming more outflow dominated with
time. Some additional convection may fire along the southern flank
for the gust front, but given the increasing stability and EML over
the region, convection may have some trouble sustaining itself. The
southern IL convection has shown a tendency to be moving more
northeast and that seems meteorologically correct given that the
upper wave is transversing northeastward. Given the recent radar
trends, feel that best chances of additional convection will be
generally north of the Ohio River overnight. However, the
atmosphere over our NW CWA and in toward the I-65 corridor has been
convectively worked over, so this activity may end up weakening as
it heads into our region. Further south, feel that isolated showers
will be possible overnight as the the nocturnal low-level jet ramps
up and we get some warm air advection over the top of the existing
cold pool from the earlier convection. The latest HRRR and rapid
refresh RUC seem to support this scenario quite well.
Update issued at 653 PM EDT Mar 17 2012
Regional radar mosaics show an area of thunderstorms generally
oriented along and west of I-65. These storms are moving slowly to
the east-northeast at 15 to 20 MPH. Atmosphere currently is in a
weakly sheared but highly buoyant state. Axis of mixed layer CAPE is
running about 1500-2000 J/kg generally along and east of the current
thunderstorm activity while a more stable atmosphere is located to
our southwest. Think that the atmosphere to our southwest is being
more controlled by a warmer elevated mixed layer complimented by
much weaker mid-level lapse rates. Over the next couple of hours,
we expect convection to slowly rumble off to the east with the
highest coverage out in the I-65 corridor.
Activity will likely remain quite strong, but the lack of strong
lapse rates seems to be keeping the updraft speeds in check which is
limiting the possibility of large hail. However, any of these
storms will be capable of producing isolated gusty winds and large
hail this evening. I would think that we should see some weakening
and decrease of areal coverage of the storms once we approach
sunset. However, this may only be a temporary break as we have a
mid-level wave out to the west that will be moving in overnight.
This feature may produce additional convection tonight. However,
activity may not be as widespread depending on how much convective
overturning we see this evening with the current activity.
.Short Term (Tonight through Sunday Night)...
Updated at 250 PM EDT Mar 17 2012
Temperatures this afternoon have risen into the mid to upper 70s
across the region with dewpoints in the low 60s. Instability has
been on this rise as well with LAPS analysis showing LI`s of -6
across the western portion of the forecast area to -4 across the
eastern portion. It is even more unstable to the west of the
forecast area where a line of showers and thunderstorms has
developed. The latest radar scans show additional isolated showers
and thunderstorms popping up across the forecast area. The main line
of storms will continue to move northeast through the afternoon and
early evening across central Kentucky and southern Indiana. If the
storms are able to become strong enough they will be capable of
producing hail and possibly some strong winds, though hail will be
the main threat. This activity should wane this evening with the
loss of daytime heating.
Another shortwave will cross the area overnight. Models do indicate
that this will spark additional showers and thunderstorms late
tonight, so will continue to mention scattered precip through
tomorrow morning. Rain chances will diminish tomorrow afternoon as
the
ridge aloft begins to amplify. Sunday night looks to be the start of
a couple of days of dry weather.
Temperatures will continue to be warm. Lows Sunday and Monday
morning will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Highs tomorrow will
be in the lower 80s.
.Long Term (Monday - Saturday)...
Updated at 245 PM EDT Mar 17 2012
First half of the week will have an amplified upper pattern, with a
deep trof working into the Rockies and a strong ridge extending up
through the Great Lakes. Precip will be suppressed Mon-Tue as the
ridge amplifies over the Ohio Valley. Expect near-record heat both
Monday and Tuesday.
Current records and forecast temps for Mon/Tues:
Mon(3/19) Tues(3/20)
Record/Forecast:
Louisville 83(1907)/84 85(1894)/83
Lexington 79(1945)/81 81(1894)/81
Bowling Green 86(1907)/84 85(1921)/82
Frankfort 81(1948)/82 82(1921)/83
By Wednesday the trof will move into the Plains, and the upper ridge
will retreat just far enough east to open us up for afternoon
thunderstorms again, with the highest POPs west of Interstate 65.
Unseasonable warmth will persist yet another day, but clouds and
maybe precip will limit temps to the mid/upper 70s.
Thu-Fri the models begin to diverge, as a closed upper low develops
and makes its way east into the Tennessee Valley by Friday night.
ECMWF is about 12 hrs faster than the latest GFS with this system.
Whenever this happens expect widespread precip under the difluent
upper flow ahead of the closed low. However, still not enough
confidence in the timing to go with a likely POP, so will carry a
high-end chance POP both Thursday and Friday. Temps will trend quite
a bit cooler, especially once we get under the upper low, but will
still be above normal. Clouds and moist southerly flow will keep min
temps well above climo, generally in the 50s.
Upper low finally edges to our east on Saturday, allowing us to dry
out from west to east. Tapered down to just a slight chance in the
east, with temps only slightly above normal. It is worth noting that
this is still a low-confidence forecast, as closed upper lows are
not always handled well by the models, and if anything the models
are too fast.
&&
.Aviation (06Z TAF Issuance)...
Updated at 106 AM EDT Mar 18 2012
The first round of scattered convection has pushed east of all the
TAF sites. The second round of scattered convection associated with
a mid-level shortwave is working into the SDF and BWG areas. Expect
the heaviest convection to be along and north of the Ohio River,
where the best forcing is located. LEX will see a short break in
activity before this second round arrives a little later this
morning. Upstream observations indicate VFR conditions and light
winds should prevail aside from thunderstorms. All of this will
shift east through the morning hours as the mid-level trough axis is
projected to be east of the TAF sites by about 15Z or so, with only
a shallow cloud deck for the afternoon hours. Could see some
isolated to scattered precip out of the afternoon development, but
will not mention in the TAFs at this time as confidence is not high
it will directly impact the sites. The cloud deck during the
afternoon should reside around 3500 to 4000 feet. Winds will remain
from the south and southwest through the forecast period, with
sustained speeds of 8-11 knots expected this afternoon.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
$$
Update...........MJ
Short Term.......EER
Long Term........RAS
Aviation.........MJP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
756 PM EDT MON MAR 19 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE COAST THROUGH LATE
THIS WEEK. A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL
FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
QUICK UPDATE TO GOING FORECAST TO REFLECT CURRENT ORIENTATION OF
POPS. NEW 18Z NAM AND LAST FEW RUNS OF HRRR HAVE DONE A GOOD JOB
WITH HANDLING WEAK SHORTWAVE TO OUR NORTH, NICELY DEPICTED ON
IR/WV SAT IMAGERY. DRIER AIR PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST HAS ALLOWED
FOR WANING INSTABILITY AND A REASONABLY STRONG CAPPED
ENVIRONMENT...WHICH SHORT RANGE MODELS ALLOW TO PRESIST THROUGH
THE EVENING. ACCORDINGLY...HAVE SHUNTED ISO TSRA WORDING OUT OF
THE PIEDMONT INTO EASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA...WITH ANY ACTIVITY
WANING QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET.
OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE CIRCULATION LOCATED ABOUT 100-150 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE VA/NC BORDER IS PROGGED TO MOVE UP THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL BRING CLOUDS OVER THE DELMARVA
OVERNIGHT AND SPREAD LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST BY TUESDAY
MORNING.
FOG WILL DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT ACROSS THE REGION BUT SHOULD NOT
FORM UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. VARIABLE VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE AREA...HOWEVER LOCALLY DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE IN
LOCATIONS THAT EXPERIENCE FULL CLEARING THIS EVENING AND IN RURAL
AREAS AS WELL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FOG IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE AND BY MID
MORNING (9-10 AM) FOR AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE LOCALLY DENSE FOG.
YET ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL DROP DOWN FROM THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION TUESDAY AND PROVIDE ENOUGH ENERGY AND LIFT FOR SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT. AN AREA OF POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE INTO THE DELMARVA REGION FROM THE
NORTH BY MID MORNING AND INTERACT WITH THE OFFSHORE LOW. THIS
FEATURE WILL BECOME A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
FROM THE DELMARVA COAST...DOWN THROUGH THE NE NORTH CAROLINA COAST...
AND TILTING TOWARD INTERIOR VA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE EASTERN
PIEDMONT WILL BE CO-LOCATED WITH AN AREA OF CONVERGENCE ALSO IN
THE AFTERNOON...CONTINUING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THIS
REGION.
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY BE SIMILAR TO MONDAY
NIGHT AS FOG RE-DEVELOPS LATE AND PERSISTS THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BRING LITTLE CHANGE TO THE CURRENT
WEATHER PATTERN WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFFSHORE AND
WEAK SHORTWAVES PROVIDING JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH AFTERNOON.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
H5 RIDGE WILL BE POSITIONED OVER THE SE U.S. THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY.
FOR THE MOST PART...THINK WX WILL BE DRY BUT MODELS DO HINT AT AN
ISOLATED AFTN SHWR/TSTORM FOR FRI SO WILL CARRY 20% POP. LOWS THURS
NIGHT IN THE 50S. HIGHS FRIDAY FROM THE MID/UPR 60S AT THE COAST TO
THE LOW 80S ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE UPR LOW OUT WEST SLOWLY PUSHING EASTWARD
THROUGH THE WEEK AND EVENTUALLY IMPACTING THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION
THIS COMING WEEKEND. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM SLOWLY
SPREADS EAST AND INTO THE FA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. STILL
SOME DIFFERENCES ON THE TRACK OF THE ACTUAL UPR LOW...SO FOR NOW
WILL CARRY CHC POPS FROM SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THE UPR LOW SHOULD
BEGIN TO PULL AWAY FROM OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT BUT AGAIN THERE ARE
TIMING DIFFERENCE IN THE MODELS WHICH COULD DELAY THE END TIME OF
PRECIP. FOR NOW...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHC POPS SUNDAY NIGHT AND IF
PREVIOUS RUNS CONTINUE TO SLOW THE UPR LOW DOWN THEN WILL ADJUST
POPS UP ACCORDINGLY. DRY WX SHOULD RETURN TO START NEXT WEEK. STILL
MILD SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S EXCEPT M-U60S COASTAL AREAS. A
LITTLE COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY/MONDAY WITH HIGHS AROUND
70 EXCEPT 60-65 COASTAL AREAS.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENLY VFR CONDS CONTG REST OF THE EVE HRS. BY LTR TNGT...XPCG
AREAS OF FOG AND/OR LOW CLOUDS TO AGAIN BE POSSIBLE. WORST OF THE
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE BETWEEN 08Z-13Z TUES. SIMILAR SETUP TUE AFTN
THROUGH WED MORNING...WITH VFR CONDS AFTER MORNING FOG/LOW CLOUDS
BURN OFF...AND BETTER CHANCE OF WIDELY SCATTERED MAINLY LATE AFTN
AND EVENING TSTMS. A BIT MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW WED NIGHT-FRI...SO
DIURNAL PATTERN OF MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG WILL TEND TO DIMINISH.
&&
.MARINE...
OVERALL WILL BE A BENIGN PERIOD FOR THE WATERS THROUGH FRI...A
BROAD SFC HIGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OFF THE MID ATLC COAST...
KEEPING ANY SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WELL OFF TO OUR WEST.
FOR REST OF TODAY AND TUES THERE WILL BE A VERY WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT...AND ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD DOMINATE WITH WINDS GENLY FROM
THE NE IN THE AM HRS TURNING MORE E FOR THE AFTN/EVENING. FAIRLY
LIGHT WIND SPEEDS...AVERAGING OUT AT 5-10 KT...WITH A SLIGHT
INCREASE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTN AND EVENINGS. SEAS 2-3 FT AND
WAVES IN THE BAY 1-2 FT. SOME FOG WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE
MAINLY DURING THE AM HRS TUES AND WED. WINDS BECOME SW BY WED
AROUND 10KT...THEN SW THURS/FRI BETWEEN 10-15 KT.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG/BMD
NEAR TERM...MAM/BMD
SHORT TERM...BMD
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...ALB/JDM
MARINE...JDM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
355 PM EDT SUN MAR 18 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND MONDAY. DRY AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS BACK
OVER THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE THAT CAN BE SEEN AS A SWIRL IN THE
CLOUDS ON THE VISIBLE SATELLITE HAS BEGUN TO INITIATE CONVECTION
INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL OHIO THIS AFTERNOON. THE MOST RECENT RUN
OF THE HRRR AND 4KM WRF SUGGEST THAT CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO
ORGANIZE INTO A LINE AND APPROACH THE CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
MODEL PROFILES HAVE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO MAINTAIN
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE WEAKENING.
SHEAR IS LIMITED HOWEVER...WHICH SHOULD KEEP ANY STORMS FROM
REACHING SEVERE LEVELS. PWAT VALUES WILL BE NEAR 1 INCH WHICH
COULD ALLOW FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL BUT DO NOT THINK IT
SHOULD BE TOO MUCH OF A CONCERN IN THE WAY OF FLOODING.
THE SLOW MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDE UP ALONG THE
AMPLIFYING RIDGE THROUGH MONDAY ALLOWING FOR THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING ALTHOUGH THE BETTER LIFT MAY REMAIN EAST.
CLOUD COVER AND AN EARLIER LINE OF SHOWERS KEPT TEMPERATURES FROM
RISING TOO QUICKLY TODAY. HOWEVER...BREAKS OUT AHEAD OF THE LINE
OF CONVECTION THAT IS DEVELOPING AND SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD STILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE MID 70S. REMAINED CLOSE TO MAV/MET
GUIDANCE TONIGHT AND MONDAY WHICH IS NEARLY 20-25 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT WAVE WILL CREST THE UPPER RIDGE AND WEAKEN THROUGH THE
PERIOD SEVERELY LIMITING ANY ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY. WITH SOME
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT...KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE BACKING OFF TO ONLY THE RIDGES. BOTH
MAV/MET GUIDANCE HAVE TEMPERATURES REACHING VERY CLOSE TO 80 BY
MIDWEEK AND WITH STRONG RIDGE STATIONED TO THE EAST AND SOUTHERLY
FLOW...FELT NO REASON TO STRAY FROM THESE NUMBERS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
REGION WILL BE UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE INTO THURSDAY WITH MILD
TEMPERATURES. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT A
DIURNAL SHOWER IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY...BUT OVERALL A DRY FORECAST.
LARGE STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL GRADUALLY COME
EAST BY FRIDAY WITH SHOWERS INTO SATURDAY. MODELS HAVE TIMING
DIFFERENCES BY THE DAY 7 TIME PERIOD WITH A SHOT OF COLDER AIR
MOVING DOWN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS BEHIND THE SATURDAY SYSTEM.
USED HPC GUIDANCE FOR CONSISTENCY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT WILL GENERATE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WITH MVFR AT TIMES. THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH LATE EVENING. WEAK FLOW WITH ABUNDANT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR IFR STATUS AND MVFR FOG TO DEVELOP
MOST LOCATIONS LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. AFTER FOG AND STATUS
MIX OUT MID MORNING MONDAY GENERAL VFR EXPECTED.
OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE INTO THURSDAY WITH GENERAL VFR
CONDITIONS. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS WILL RETURN FRIDAY AS
A STORM SYSTEM MOVES EAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MARQUETTE MI
921 PM EDT MON MAR 19 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 920 PM EDT MON MAR 19 2012
REMOVED PCPN CHANCES FOR ALL EXCEPT THE FAR WEST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
LACK OF A TRIGGERING AND FOCUSING MECHANISM IS THE REASON. 00Z KGRB
SOUNDING IS RELATIVELY STABLE AS WELL AND THIS AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT THE AREA. THE MORE UNSTABLE AIR WILL STAY OFF TO THE WEST
OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 438 PM EDT MON MAR 19 2012
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A VERY AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH
A DEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE ROCKIES
AND A RIDGE FROM THE GULF INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND NRN
ONTARIO RESULTING IN SSW FLOW FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS
VALLEY AND WRN GREAT LAKES. CAPPING EVIDENT ON MORNING SOUNDINGS AND
FCST SOUNDINGS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON HAS WEAKENED AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER SRN WI LIFTS TO THE NORTH. THE SHRTWV COMBINED WITH
MLCAPE VALUES INTO THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE SUPPORTED AN AREA OF
SHOWERS OVER SE WI AND MORE ISOLD SHRA/TSRA OVER NRN WI. ANOTHER
AREA OF SHRA/TSRA WAS LOCATED OVER NE IA INTO SE MN.
OTHERWISE...PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND AFTERNOON MIXING HAS AGAIN PUSHED
TEMPS AGAIN TO RECORD HIGHS INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S.
AS THE WI SHRTWV LIFTS TO THE NORTH EXPECT THE ISOLD CONVECTION OVER
NRN WI TO ALSO MOVE INTO SRN UPPER MI LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WITH COOLING LATER THIS EVENING...EXPECT THE PCPN TO
DIMINISH.
STRONGER SHORTWAVES LIFTING OUT OF THE NRN PLAINS INTO SASK AND
MANITOBA ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY FLATTEN THE RIDGE AND ALLOW THE
FRONT OVER THE ERN DAKOTAS TO SHIFT TO THE EAST. HOWEVER THE
STRONGER LARGE SCALE DYNAMICS WITH UPPER LEVEL DIV ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER JET MOVING INTO N ONTARIO WILL REMAIN WILL REMAIN
NORTHWEST OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH CONTINUED SSW MID LEVEL FLOW AND
THE VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE REGION...WEAK
SHORTWAVES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO TRIGGER SOME SCT/ISOLD SHRA/TSRA
INTO MAINLY THE WEST HALF OF UPPER MI. AS IS TYPICAL WITH WARM
SEASON CONVECTION...THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
TIMING/POSITION OF ANY SHRA/TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK
DISTURBANCES. SO...THE FCST CONTINUES TO CARRY CHANCE POPS LOWER END
CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD OVER THE WEST.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN RECORD TERRITORY FOR HIGH OVERNIGHT MINS AND
MAX READINGS TUESDAY WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND HIGHS REACHING THE MID
70S. WITH A FEW MORE CLOUDS OVER THE AREA...TEMPS MAY BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN TODAY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 438 PM EDT MON MAR 19 2012
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
OUR STAGNANT 500MB WEATHER PATTERN OF LATE...WITH THE HIGH AMPLITUDE
500MB RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION WILL BECOME
SUPPRESSED...BUT STILL OVERHEAD THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
TAKING A LOOK CLOSER TO THE SFC...THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT
STRETCHING FROM THE MAIN SFC LOWS ACROSS FAR NE MANITOBA AND IA WILL
SHIFT OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA BY 21-00Z WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...WHILE CONTINUING TO WEAKEN/WASH OUT TO OUR EAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR. THE ENTIRE SYSTEM LOOKS TO HAVE SLOWED DOWN A BIT MORE. IT
WILL HAVE ASSISTANCE FROM THE EXITING 300MB JET...BUT THIS WILL
MAINLY BE ACROSS W TO NORTH CENTRAL UPPER MI...AND LAKE SUPERIOR.
DID NOT GO WITH HIGH POPS YET...DUE TO THE LOW PROBABILITY AND
DIMINISHED AMOUNTS OF PRECIP EXPECTED. BEHIND THE FRONT...WHILE A
HUGE COOL DOWN IS NOT EXPECTED...850MB TEMPS WILL STILL FALL FROM
AROUND 11C TO NEAR 8C BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON ON LIGHT WINDS.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
THE 500MB LOW...CURRENTLY ORGANIZING ACROSS THE 4-CORNERS REGION
TODAY WILL BE OVER N TX AT 00Z THURSDAY. EXPECT THIS CUT OFF LOW TO
EJECT NORTHWARD AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...PUSHING ACROSS E KS FRIDAY
MORNING...AND MO BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
JUST HOW MUCH OF AN INFLUENCE THIS TRACK HAS ON OUR WEATHER IS STILL
IN QUESTION...AS THE 500MB LOW SLIPS EASTWARD TO THE LOWER OH VALLEY
SATURDAY /AND SFC LOW MOVES AS FAR NORTH AS SCENTRAL WI AT 00Z
SATURDAY/...BEFORE FURTHER EXITING EASTWARD AND WEAKENING SUNDAY
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...WITH A REBOUNDING RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE
PLAINS AND UPPER GREAT LAKES. STILL HAVE A CHANCE OF RAIN FRIDAY
MORNING THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY...BUT WILL WAIT TO SEE ON MUCH
NEEDED AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE.
EVEN WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING BACK ACROSS THE CWA...NE WINDS WILL
PULL COOLER AIR DOWN FROM ONTARIO. THE 19/00Z RUN OF THE ECMWF EVEN
INDICATES 850MB TEMPS OVER THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW AROUND 0C AT 06Z
SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THE WARMER 19/06Z RUN OF THE GFS IS STILL AROUND
4C. EITHER WAY...LOOK FOR WAA ON WEAK S-SW WINDS AGAIN BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 656 PM EDT MON MAR 19 2012
CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD AT CMX AND IWD. S-SE
WINDS OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN TONIGHT MAY CAUSE VSBYS AT SAW TO DROP TO
MVFR OVERNIGHT AND PUSHED IT BACK TO LATE TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS
FAIRLY LOW THOUGH AS PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS HAVE SEEN NO FOG. USUALLY
WHEN THE WIND IS SOUTH AND THERE IS FOG IN LAKE MICHIGAN...CIGS AND
VIS COME DOWN AT SAW. AS DAYTIME HEATING SUBSIDES AND MIXING
DIMINISHES...EXPECT LLWS TO DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT AT ALL SITES. DID
PUT IN CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUE AFTERNOON OVER IWD AS FRONTAL BAND GETS
CLOSER TO THAT AREA. FURTHER EAST...CONFIDENCE IN SEEING SHOWERS IS
LOWER AND DID NOT INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 438 PM EDT MON MAR 19 2012
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF STRONG LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS. DUE TO THE SUMMER TYPE NATURE OF THE
SYSTEM...WINDS AS THE SURFACE OF THE LAKE REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK DUE TO
THE MARINE LAYER...ALTHOUGH WINDS ABOVE THE MARINE LAYER ARE MUCH
STRONGER. IN ADDITION...DESPITE THE SOUTHERLY SYNOPTIC FLOW...WINDS
ACROSS THE WEST EAST OR NORTHEASTERLY AS IS TYPICAL DURING THE
SPRING WITH LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST. EXPECT WINDS TO TURN WESTERLY
WED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...THEN ONCE AGAIN SOUTHERLY BY THE WEEKEND
AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS. OTHER THAN
TODAY...EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN BELOW 30 KT THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ248-250.
&&
$$
UPDATE...07
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...07
MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
135 AM EDT SUN MAR 18 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 428 PM EDT SAT MAR 17 2012
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NEAR
THE WEST COAST AND A BROAD DOWNSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE CNTRL AND ERN
CONUS RESULTING IN SW FLOW INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. AT THE
SFC...SRLY FLOW AHEAD OF A TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS HAS BROUGHT GULF
MOISTURE AND RECORD BREAKING WARM AIR FROM THE PLAINS AND MS VALLEY
INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES AND NRN ONTARIO. DESPITE CAPE VALUES INTO
TO AROUND 2K J/KG...ENOUGH CAPPING PREVAILED OVER THE CWA...PER 12Z
KMPX SOUNDING TO PREVENT TSRA DEVELOPMENT OVER THE CWA.
HOWEVER...CONVECTION HAD DEVELOPED ABOVE THE MARINE LAYER NEAR THE
STRAITS...WHERE THE CAP WAS WEAKER.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 428 PM EDT SAT MAR 17 2012
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...UNSEASONABLY WARM AND MOIST CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE
ALONG WITH RELATIVELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES FROM 7.5C-8.5C/KM.
THIS INSTABILITY WOULD BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT KEEPING SLIGHT CHC POPS
FOR TSRA POTENTIAL OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER...ANY SHORTWAVES LIFTING
INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES ARE EXPECTED TO BE WEAK AND THE GREATEST
ISENTROPIC LIFT NEAR THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET 850 MB WARM FRONT
AND WEAKER CAPPING SHOULD REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF THE CWA...PER
MODEL DATA. WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS...EXPECT MORE FOG/STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN AND AREAS WITH UPSLOPE
SRLY FLOW. RECORD HIGH MINIMUM VALUES ARE EXPECTED WITH LOWS ONLY
DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 50S AT MOST LOCATIONS.
STRONG SRLY FLOW AND WAA WILL PUSH 850 MB TEMPS INTO THE 12C TO 14C
RANGE. SO...WITH SUNSHINE AND DECENT MIXING...EXPECT HIGH TEMPS
AGAIN WELL INTO 70S ACROSS THE W HALF OF UPPER MI AND PERHAPS EVEN
LOWER 80S AT SOME SPOTS. TEMPS WILL REMAIN SUBSTANTIALLY LOWER
DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN WHERE READINGS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 50S
ALONG THE SHORE TO LOWER 60S WELL INLAND.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 428 PM EDT SAT MAR 17 2012
WHAT GOES UP /OUR STRETCH OF UNSEASONABLE WARM TEMPERATURES/ MUST
GO DOWN...EVENTUALLY...BUT THE MAIN QUESTION IS THE DEGREE IT WILL
GO DOWN. DEEP TROUGH OVER FAR WESTERN CONUS IS FCST TO COME EAST
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. GOOD AGREEMENT IN OVERALL SCENARIO THROUGH
ROUGHLY MID WEEK...THEN MODEL DIFFERENCES START CREEPING INTO THE
PICTURE BY LATE WEEK/NEXT WEEKEND. MAIN ISSUE AT THAT TIME IS HOW
MUCH TROUGHING/COLD AIR WILL BE OVER THE UPR LAKES FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. MODELS EARLIER THIS WEEK SHOWED MAIN TROUGH SPLITTING INTO
TWO...WITH MORE OF A CUTOFF LOW OVER SOUTHERN PLAINS MEANDERING
ACROSS CNTRL CONUS...BUT MAINLY REMAINING SOUTH OF UPR LAKES. MORE
RECENT MODEL RUNS SHOWED MORE PHASING BTWN THE TWO TROUGHS OVR THE
UPR LAKES BY LATE WEEK. LATELY THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE
INDICATING MORE SPLIT PATTERN AGAIN. ECMWF IS THE ONLY MODEL SHOWING
MORE OF A PHASED LOOK WHILE ECMWF ENSEMBLES DEVELOP TROUGH FARTHER
EAST...ALLOWING HEIGHTS TO REBOUND OVR UPR LAKES AS QUICKLY AS NEXT
SATURDAY.
INITIALLY TO START THE LONGER RANGE WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW
REGIME WILL BE IN FULL SWING SOUTH OF WARM FRONT. NOT A WHOLE LOT OF
LARGER SCALE FEATURES TO PIN POPS TO SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. LOOKS
LIKE THERE ARE A FEW AREAS OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT FLOWING INTO THE UPR
LAKES THAT MAY TRIGGER CONVECTION IN THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT. BETTER
CHANCE WOULD BE OVER WEST AND NORTHWEST CWA. NOTHING MORE THAN
SLIGHT CHANCES THOUGH GIVEN LACK OF SUPPORT FM SHORTWAVES AND UPR
JET SUPPORT. THUNDER CHANCES SEEM PRETTY REMOTE AS H7-H5 LAPSE
RATES ARE DECREASING WITH ARRIVAL OF WARM AIR ALOFT. SI/S START OUT
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY A BIT BLO 0C BUT BY LATER MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT STABILITY ONLY INCREASES.
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK
WITH MORE RECORD HIGHS EXPECTED. COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED BY
LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS PLAINS TROUGH SLIDES INTO CNTRL
CONUS. GREATEST CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE WEEK OCCURS WEDNESDAY AS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AHEAD OF TROUGH/POOLING MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT
AND RIGHT ENTRANCE FORCING FM UPR JET CONGEAL OVR UPR LAKES. DESPITE
ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH /PWATS OVR 300 PCT OF NORMAL/
NOT SURE THAT WILL EQUATE TO WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN OVR THE CWA.
WHERE IT DOES RAIN...IT COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES THOUGH. FOR NOW HAVE
HIGHEST POPS ON WEDNESDAY OVER THE NORTHERN CWA CLOSER TO INFLUENCE
OF UPR JET OVR ONTARIO. EVENTUALLY THOUGH POPS MAY NEED TO BE PUSHED
INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY OVR MUCH OF CWA.
EXTENT OF TROUGHING/COOLING STILL IN QUESTION FOR LATE WEEK AND NEXT
WEEKEND. ECMWF CONTINUES ITS TREND OF SHARPER TROUGHING AND COOLER
TEMPS /H85 TEMPS BLO -5C/ WHICH WOULD RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS THAN
CURRENT FCST SHOWS AND TEMPS COOLING INTO THE 30S. CHANCES OF PCPN
APPEAR LOW THOUGH AS ALTHOUGH IT WOULD BE COOL IT LOOKS FAIRLY DRY
AS WELL. GIVEN LACK OF CONSISTENCY IN MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE NOT
STRAYED TOO FAR FM CONSENSUS AT THIS POINT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 133 AM EDT SUN MAR 18 2012
FOG TO DEVELOP AT KSAW OVERNIGHT AS WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW
DEVELOPS...RESULTING IN IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS. WHILE ABUNDANT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AVAILABLE AT KCMX AND KIWD...DOWNSLOPE FLOW TO
INHIBIT FOG FORMATION THERE. LATEST TRENDS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR HAVE
SHOWN FOG DRIFING SE TOWARDS KCMX...SO WILL NEED TO MONITOR. HAVE
INCLUDED MENTION OF MVFR VSBYS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
PATCHY LIGHT FOG DEVELOPING WHERE REMAINING SNOWPACK LINGERS.
FOG/STRATUS AT KSAW SHOULD LIFT BY AROUND 14Z SUNDAY MORNING WITH ALL
SITES VFR THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AFTER THEN. LLWS WILL BE PRESENT
AT ALL SITES OVERNIGHT AND MAY OCCUR ONCE AGAIN AFTER 0Z AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES. LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH RH SHOULD ALLOW FOG TO
REDEVELOP AT KSAW...WITH FOG FORMING AT KCMX AS SE UPSLOPE FLOW
DEVELOPS. &&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 428 PM EDT SAT MAR 17 2012
EXPECT GENERALLY S-SE WINDS LESS THAN 25 KTS INTO NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES OVER THE UPR GREAT LAKES REGION. UNSEASONABLY
WARM AIR OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL ALSO RESULT IN PERSISTENT
MARINE LAYER/STRONG STABILITY OVER THE LAKE. WITH THE UNSEASONABLY
HIGH DEWPOINTS MOVING INTO THE AREA...AREAS OF FOG WILL ALSO
CONTINUE OVER THE AREA WITH LCLY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JLB
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...RJT
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
806 PM CDT Mon Mar 19 2012
.UPDATE...
/753 PM CDT Mon Mar 19 2012/
Sent a quick update to lower chances of thunder and remove them from
the northwest portions of the forecast area. The bulk of any
remaining true thunderstorm activity will be confined over the
eastern third of the forecast area over the next few hours.
Otherwise, only isolated rumbles are expected out of the stratiform
moderate to heavy rain shield moving in from southeastern Kansas.
Also scaled back QPF in the northwestern portion of the forecast area
as the heaviest rain should be focused east and especially southeast
of that region. Will keep the flood watch as is for now as future
rounds rain/storms may have a greater impact on the northwestern
portions of the forecast area. The heaviest rain over the next 12
hours should be focused mainly across east central Kansas into west
central and eventually central Missouri with amounts greatest south
of the Missouri River/I-70 area.
CDB
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Short range (Tonight through Wednesday)
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a large upper level trough
centered over the eastern Rockies has begun to overspread the area
this afternoon. The main concerns with this system for the remainder
of the afternoon and this evening will be twofold. First, there is a
marginal severe threat with these storms. Over the eastern portion of
the CWA more discreet cells are ongoing in an area of better
instability. Shear associated with these storms appears to be
unidirectional out of the south however winds at the surface have
backed to the southeast a bit so there is a modicum of concern that
these cells could take on rotation. Across the western CWA better
shear exist however there is very little instability due to rain
cooled temperatures ranging from the mid 50s to low 60s. However do
to good shear there is a wind threat across the area as well as a
marginal threat for severe hail as there is good upper level forcing
across the area. The second concern with these storms will be the
more long term and more likely flood threat that exists for the area
and as such a flood watch is out through Wednesday night. The
aforementioned upper level trough will be a slow mover, moving into
the Southern Plains by tomorrow. A cold front associated with this
system is extending from central Nebraska into western Kansas and
Oklahoma. This cold front will continue to move slowly across the
Plains states as we go through tonight into tomorrow keeping the
area in southerly flow at the surface and continuing to advect moist
Gulf air into the area. This will bring periods of heavy rain and
thunderstorms to the area again tomorrow. By Wednesday the cold
front remains stalled across the area as the upper level trough
closes off an upper level low across the Southern Plains. However,
the moisture transport will remain strong as a 40-50kt
south-southeasterly LLJ continues to pump Gulf moisture into the
area. PWAT values tonight through Wednesday range between
1.25"-1.50" and with several rounds of precipitation expected
through Wednesday rainfall totals across the CWA will range between
2 to 5 inches with potentially locally heavier amounts.
73
Medium Range (Thursday through Monday)...
While the heavy rain will have ended by Thursday we will still be
dealing with the effects of the upper system which will have long
since closed off. The medium range models are in generally good
agreement in the overall picture of a slow plodding closed upper
low. There are noticeable differences in how the ECMWF, NAM and GFS
handle the occlusion process and wrapping of a frontal band through
the CWA on Thursday. Concerns also include how the models typically
are too fast to move these types of systems out. It is conceivable
we will still be dealing with pops on Friday as the cold core part
of the system moves through. In addition a conceptual model
utilizing this scenario suggests potential for steep afternoon lapse
rates should we see even partial sunshine. This would increase the
potential for afternoon low topped storms with hail. Will keep
reasonable high chance pops going Thursday/Friday. The thermal
structure is pretty homogeneous so Thursday/Friday temperatures
should be similar.
Should finally be rid of this system by the weekend with height
rises aloft followed by a pronounced upper ridge sliding east.
GFS/ECMWF h8 temperature forecasts look reasonable and given the
prolonged warm period we`ve had feel justified in raising
temperatures above guidance Sunday/Monday.
MJ
&&
.AVIATION...
For the 00z TAFs...A large fetch of deep tropical moisture is
fueling this large swath of rain/showers extending from central TX
through MN. Minimal threat for any additional thunderstorms at least
through the overnight period. Short term convective models as well
as deterministic models not particularly helpful on timing of next
round of precipitation. Will use a blend of 12z 4km WRF-NMM, HRRR
and RUC as they all tend to shift the back edge of this initial band
of rain out of the terminals during the pre-dawn hours. Thereafter,
have minimal confidence in models. They are all over the place with
the rain starting at the crack of dawn or waiting till afternoon.
Will broadbrush non-stop rain for now for most of Tuesday and adjust
with next model run when they hopefully will be more in tune.
Despite all of this rain cigs have remained stubbornly VFR. Again,
model sounding forecasts run the full gamut from LIFR to VFR
bouncing the cigs back and forth. Inspection of upstream obs says to
maintain VFR cigs until proven otherwise. Do believe the environment
will eventually become so saturated that MVFR and possibly IFR cigs
will materialize on Tuesday.
MJ
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLOOD WATCH through Wednesday evening FOR MOZ001>008-011>017-
020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.
KS...FLOOD WATCH through Wednesday evening FOR KSZ025-057-060-102>105.
&&
$$
WFO EAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
643 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012
...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.DISCUSSION...
Short range (Tonight through Wednesday)
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a large upper level trough
centered over the eastern Rockies has begun to overspread the area
this afternoon. The main concerns with this system for the remainder
of the afternoon and this evening will be twofold. First, there is a
marginal severe threat with these storms. Over the eastern portion of
the CWA more discreet cells are ongoing in an area of better
instability. Shear associated with these storms appears to be
unidirectional out of the south however winds at the surface have
backed to the southeast a bit so there is a modicum of concern that
these cells could take on rotation. Across the western CWA better
shear exist however there is very little instability due to rain
cooled temperatures ranging from the mid 50s to low 60s. However do
to good shear there is a wind threat across the area as well as a
marginal threat for severe hail as there is good upper level forcing
across the area. The second concern with these storms will be the
more long term and more likely flood threat that exists for the area
and as such a flood watch is out through Wednesday night. The
aforementioned upper level trough will be a slow mover, moving into
the Southern Plains by tomorrow. A cold front associated with this
system is extending from central Nebraska into western Kansas and
Oklahoma. This cold front will continue to move slowly across the
Plains states as we go through tonight into tomorrow keeping the
area in southerly flow at the surface and continuing to advect moist
Gulf air into the area. This will bring periods of heavy rain and
thunderstorms to the area again tomorrow. By Wednesday the cold
front remains stalled across the area as the upper level trough
closes off an upper level low across the Southern Plains. However,
the moisture transport will remain strong as a 40-50kt
south-southeasterly LLJ continues to pump Gulf moisture into the
area. PWAT values tonight through Wednesday range between
1.25"-1.50" and with several rounds of precipitation expected
through Wednesday rainfall totals across the CWA will range between
2 to 5 inches with potentially locally heavier amounts.
73
Medium Range (Thursday through Monday)...
While the heavy rain will have ended by Thursday we will still be
dealing with the effects of the upper system which will have long
since closed off. The medium range models are in generally good
agreement in the overall picture of a slow plodding closed upper
low. There are noticeable differences in how the ECMWF, NAM and GFS
handle the occlusion process and wrapping of a frontal band through
the CWA on Thursday. Concerns also include how the models typically
are too fast to move these types of systems out. It is conceivable
we will still be dealing with pops on Friday as the cold core part
of the system moves through. In addition a conceptual model
utilizing this scenario suggests potential for steep afternoon lapse
rates should we see even partial sunshine. This would increase the
potential for afternoon low topped storms with hail. Will keep
reasonable high chance pops going Thursday/Friday. The thermal
structure is pretty homogeneous so Thursday/Friday temperatures
should be similar.
Should finally be rid of this system by the weekend with height
rises aloft followed by a pronounced upper ridge sliding east.
GFS/ECMWF h8 temperature forecasts look reasonable and given the
prolonged warm period we`ve had feel justified in raising
temperatures above guidance Sunday/Monday.
MJ
&&
.AVIATION...
For the 00z TAFs...A large fetch of deep tropical moisture is
fueling this large swath of rain/showers extending from central TX
through MN. Minimal threat for any additional thunderstorms at least
through the overnight period. Short term convective models as well
as deterministic models not particularly helpful on timing of next
round of precipitation. Will use a blend of 12z 4km WRF-NMM, HRRR
and RUC as they all tend to shift the back edge of this initial band
of rain out of the terminals during the pre-dawn hours. Thereafter,
have minimal confidence in models. They are all over the place with
the rain starting at the crack of dawn or waiting till afternoon.
Will broadbrush non-stop rain for now for most of Tuesday and adjust
with next model run when they hopefully will be more in tune.
Despite all of this rain cigs have remained stubbornly VFR. Again,
model sounding forecasts run the full gamut from LIFR to VFR
bouncing the cigs back and forth. Inspection of upstream obs says to
maintain VFR cigs until proven otherwise. Do believe the environment
will eventually become so saturated that MVFR and possibly IFR cigs
will materialize on Tuesday.
MJ
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLOOD WATCH through Wednesday evening FOR MOZ001>008-011>017-
020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.
KS...FLOOD WATCH through Wednesday evening FOR
KSZ025-057-060-102>105.
&&
$$
WFO EAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREAT FALLS MT
914 PM MDT MON MAR 19 2012
.UPDATE...
WINTER STORM SYSTEM MOVING NORTH DEEPER INTO SASKATCHEWAN THIS
EVENING WITH DRIER AIR STARTING TO WORK INTO THE REGION. ENDED THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY EARLY WITH WINDS DROPPING OFF AND WITH THE
SNOW ENDING ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA.
CURRENT RUC13 SHOWING DECENT H700 WINDS STARTING TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ROCKY MTN FRONT TONIGHT INTO TUES...WITH THESE WINDS
STAYING UP ACROSS FRONT RANGE AND OUT INTO THE PLAINS DO NOT THINK
THAT TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT TOO MUCH EVEN WITH SOME CLEARING
EXPECTED. SHELTERED AREAS WILL THOUGH...AND THIS WILL MEAN THAT
VALLEY LOCATIONS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE STATE MAY RAD
COOL THEMSELVES INTO SINGLE DIGITS OR EVEN WELL BELOW ZERO IF
ENOUGH CLEARING DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT WITH THE LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED
IN THAT PART OF THE TREASURE STATE. DUE TO THE RECENT MOISTURE AND
THE CLEARING COUPLED WITH LIGHT WINDS...PATCHY FOG MAYBE POSSIBLE
ACROSS VALLEYS OF SW MONTANA WITH THE RUC12 HIGHLIGHTING THIS
THREAT CLOSER TO WYS AND VALLEYS JUST TO THE WEST ACROSS PORTIONS
OF MADISON COUNTY. --SCHOTT
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 645 PM MDT MON MAR 19 2012/
.UPDATE...
AFTER CALLS TO LOCAL OFFICIALS ACROSS THE BLIZZARD WARNING
AREA...CONDITIONS HAVE STARTED TO DRAMATICALLY IMPROVE. WITH THIS
SAID...LOCAL OFFICIAL REPORT THAT POWER IS STILL OUT IN MANY
AREAS...ESPECIALLY AROUND BLAINE COUNTY. BLOWING AND DRIFTING WILL
BE A MAJOR CONCERN AS THE LAST OF THE SNOW WRAPS UP ACROSS BLAINE
AND FERGUS COUNTY THIS EVENING. BLAINE COUNTY SHERIFF REPORTS
SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING ISSUES ACROSS THE COUNTY. CANCELLED
OR ENDED ALL THE BLIZZARD WARNINGS BUT HAVE ADDED A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR BLAINE AND FERGUS COUNTY WHERE BOTH LIGHT SNOW AND
BLOWING AND DRIFTING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. --SCHOTT
&&
.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0045Z.
THE STRONG WEATHER SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT WIDESPREAD SNOW/BLOWING SNOW
TO THE AREA OVER THE LAST 18 HOURS OR SO HAS MOSTLY EXITED THE AREA
AND CONDITIONS HAVE RAPIDLY IMPROVED SINCE 18Z. THROUGH 06Z...AM
EXPECTING LINGERING CLOUDS/WINDS ACROSS THE AREA...AS WELL AS SNOW
BOTH IN THE MOUNTAINS AND ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA
(INCLUDING KLWT)...TO DECREASE. HOWEVER...THE LINGERING SNOW IN THE
EAST WILL OBSCURE MOUNTAINS AND CAUSE MVFR/IFR THROUGH AROUND 03Z.
SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER THE PLAINS WILL REMAIN BREEZY ENOUGH OVERNIGHT
(10 TO 20 KT) TO LIKELY PREVENT FOG FORMATION AT THE PLAINS
TERMINALS (KCTB KHVR KGTF KLWT)...BUT ANY DROP-OFF IN WINDS COULD
CAUSE PATCHY FOG TO FORM. WILL MONITOR THIS CLOSELY. WINDS SHOULD
DROP OFF ENOUGH IN THE SOUTHWEST MONTANA VALLEYS (KHLN KBZN) TO
ALLOW PATCHY FOG TO FORM. A DISTURBANCE IN THE DEVELOPING WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS WITH MOUNTAIN TOP
OBSCURING PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA ON TUESDAY...AS WELL AS GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS. WINDS ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT COULD GUST INTO
THE 55 TO 65 KT RANGE DURING THE DAY...WITH MOSTLY GUSTS OF 30 TO 40
KT FARTHER OUT ONTO THE PLAINS. COULSTON
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 245 PM MDT MON MAR 19 2012/
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...LARGE WINTER WEATHER
SYSTEM SHOWING SOME INITIAL SIGNS OF EASING UP AS THE CLOSED UPPER
LOW PRESSURE CENTER DRIFTS NORTH INTO SRN SASKATCHEWAN. WAS ABLE
TO CANCEL EARLIER WARNINGS/ADVISORIES OVER THE ROCKY MTN FRONT AND
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MT...BUT CURRENT BLIZZARD AND WINTER STORM
WARNINGS OVER CENTRAL AND HILINE COUNTIES REMAIN IN EFFECT INTO
THIS EVE. STILL EXPECT THE ENTIRE SYSTEM TO EXIT OUR AREA LATER
TONIGHT...WITH PROGRESSIVELY IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM WEST TO
EAST. SOME CONCERN THAT OVERNIGHT LOWS...MAINLY UPPER TEENS OVER
PLAINS/VALLEYS...MAY DROP FURTHER IF SKIES TOTALLY CLEAR OVER THE
NEW SNOW COVER. BUT BREEZY WINDS MAY OFFSET SOME OF THE
COOLING...FOLLOWING SHIFTS WILL GIVE IT A LOOK AND ADJUST IF
NEEDED. MUCH IMPROVED CONDITIONS TOMORROW AS WEAK RIDGING AND
WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. FORECAST MODELS
HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN INDICATING POSSIBILITY OF HIGH WINDS ALONG
THE ROCKY MTN FRONT BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT...SO HAVE UPGRADED TO
WATCH FOR THE FRONT AND ERN GLACIER COUNTY TO A WARNING BEGINNING
AT MIDNIGHT. HAVE ALSO ADDED A NEW WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE
ROCKY MTN FRONT STARTING NOON TOMORROW. PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL
STREAM ACROSS WESTERN MT AND BANK UP AGAINST THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE...BUT MOISTURE WILL NOT MAKE IT TOO FAR EAST GIVEN THE
DRYING DOWNSLOPE FLOW OF THE HIGH WINDS IN THE SAME LOCATION. HAVE
DECREASED HIGH TEMPS FOR TUES A FEW DEGREES TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
SNOW COVER WITH LOW/MID 40S EXPECTED. DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO
WED...THOUGH PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ALONG THE ROCKY
MTN FRONT. WITH LESS SNOW COVER BY THEN...EXPECT WED MAX TEMPS TO
REACH THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S. WARANAUSKAS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A
PROGRESSIVE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH PACIFIC MOISTURE EXPECTED ALONG
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA REMAINS DRY.
A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY
THOUGH MODELS HAVE VERY LITTLE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT.
THERE MAY BE SOME SHOWERS ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND ALONG
THE HI-LINE SO HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS IN THESE
AREAS. BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY BEFORE
NEXT STORM SYSTEM ENTERS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SHORTWAVE ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH MAIN TROUGH WILL BRING INCREASED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TO NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND HAVE RAISED
POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE CATEGORY. SOUTHWEST MONTANA WILL
LIKELY REMAIN DRY AS THE MAIN ENERGY STAYS FARTHER NORTH. MODELS ARE
INCONSISTENT DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY REGARDING THE TREND OF NEXT SYSTEM. THE GFS IS
THE WETTER SOLUTION AS IT BRINGS ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY INTO
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA. THE ECMWF IS CONSIDERABLY DRIER SO
HAVE NOT FAVORED ONE SOLUTION OVER THE OTHER AND ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS OVER THE PLAINS AND CHANCE POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS FOR NEXT
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES THROUGH THE PERIOD. MLV
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF 23 45 30 53 / 10 10 10 10
CTB 21 44 29 46 / 10 10 10 10
HLN 22 44 30 52 / 10 10 10 10
BZN 17 41 26 52 / 10 10 10 10
WEY -5 29 16 40 / 40 30 30 30
DLN 13 39 26 47 / 10 20 20 10
HVR 19 43 27 49 / 10 10 10 0
LWT 16 40 28 49 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT MDT TUESDAY
NIGHT EASTERN GLACIER...NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT...SOUTHERN
ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TUESDAY TO NOON MDT WEDNESDAY
FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 5000 FEET FOR NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN
FRONT...SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...WARANAUSKAS
LONG TERM...BLANK/MLV
AVIATION...COULSTON
WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
311 PM EDT SUN MAR 18 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK
AS AN UPPER RIDGE REMAINS AMPLIFIED OVER THE REGION. EACH AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING WILL BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM AS
MOISTURE AND HEATING COMBINE WITH THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE FRONT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...IN THE VERY NEAR TERM...NARROW AXIS OF SFC BASED
INSTABILITY EXITS ACROSS INLAND SC COUNTIES WHERE SOLAR INSOLATION
WAS ONGOING THE LONGEST. VORT MAX WITH GOOD PRESENTATION IN BOTH SAT
AND RADAR IMAGERY...JUST SOUTH OF CLT PROVIDING SOME SYNOPTIC SCALE
LIFT GENERATING SOME MODERATELY STRONG CONVECTION. A FEW SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENTS LIKELY IN THE OFFERING AND A STRAY SVR OR TWO NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION. HRRR INITIALIZED AT 15Z CAPTURED THESE STORMS
PRETTY WELL AND TAKE THEM SSE THROUGH ABOUT 5 OR 6 PM. THE SAME
MODEL IS NOT EXCITED ABOUT PRECIP CHANCES FURTHER NORTH WHERE
EXTENSIVE STRATUS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON HELD DOWN HIGH TEMPS BY A
FEW DEGREES COMPARED TO THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. IN FACT RUC
ANALYSIS SHOWS THE BORDER BETWEEN SFC BASED CAPE AND CAPPING TO
ROUGHLY FOLLOW THE STATE LINE. POPS NORTH OF THIS LINE ARE MORE
PROBLEMATIC ESPECIALLY SINCE THE WELL INITIALIZED HRRR SHOWS
NOTHING. HOWEVER CAPE FEAR REGION HAS ALSO CLEARED OUT NICELY OF
CLOUD COVER AND 12Z WRF STILL IMPLIED SOME LIGHT QPF SO SOME SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS WILL BE ADVERTISED THROUGH JUST AFTER 00Z AND PLACE LESS
STRESS ON THUNDER. SHORTWAVE WILL BE EXITING THE COAST ROUGHLY BY
THIS TIME AND SHOULD REPRESENT THE LAST REMAINING MECHANISM FOR LIFT
AND THE OVERNIGHT HOURS LOOK MAINLY DRY. TEMP GUIDANCE HAS SOME
DROPPING DEWPOINTS OVERNIGHT LEADING TO LOW TEMP FCST IN THE MID 50S
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. THIS MAY BE A BIT TOO LOW AND HAVE
RAMIFICATIONS FOR FOG POTENTIAL. FOR NOW FOLLOWED GUIDANCE RATHER
CLOSELY AND ADVERTISED PATCHY FOG. LATER SHIFT MAY BE ABLE TO
RE-EVALUATE BOTH AFTER CONVECTION DIES OFF.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...MONDAY AND TUESDAY TEMPERATURES WILL PAN OUT
WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR MIDDLE MARCH...AS AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS ALONG
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AMPLIFIES. SEVERAL IMPULSES
ALOFT WILL LIKELY DROP SE ALONG THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS
THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS TO PROVIDE SLIGHTLY ENHANCED LIFT. COUPLED
WITH AFTERNOON HEATING...ADEQUATE COLUMN MOISTURE...AND THE SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATION...WARRANTS ISOLATED CONVECTION BOTH MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. UPPER 70S TO MID 80S EXPECTED BOTH DAYS WITH 60S ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL SITES. LOWS GENERALLY 50S AREA-WIDE.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST WITH MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE STILL HAVING TROUBLE OUT WEST. DEEP 5H TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHWEST CONUS WILL EVENTUALLY CUTOFF OVER TX MIDWEEK. MAIN
FORECAST ISSUE IS FIGURING HOW FAR NORTH THE CUTOFF OVER TX WILL
LIFT BEFORE MOVING EAST. CLOSER TO HOME THE SUMMER PATTERN CONTINUES
WITH BERMUDA HIGH HOLDING UNDER 5H RIDGE. THE BREAKDOWN OF THE 5H
RIDGE WILL DETERMINE HOW FAR NORTH THE CUTOFF TRAVELS BEFORE IT
MOVES EAST. A STRONGER 5H RIDGE THAN WHAT THE GUIDANCE IS
SHOWING...A KNOWN BIAS...WOULD TEND TO TRACK THE LOW FARTHER NORTH
WHILE ALSO RESULTING IN A SLOWER SOLUTION. GIVEN THE LOW CONFIDENCE
AND THE ISSUES THE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN HAVING WITH SOUTHWEST SYSTEMS
THIS WINTER DID NOT MAKE A LOT OF CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.
HIGHEST POP LOOKS TO BE SAT/SAT NIGHT WHEN STACKED LOW AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IMPACT THE REGION. OTHERWISE HAVE DIURNAL
SLIGHT CHANCE POP EACH DAY TO ACCOUNT FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 19Z...CEILINGS HAVE LIFTED TO MVFR...EXCEPT AT FLO/LBT
CONDITIONS ARE VFR. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED BETWEEN
ILM AND CRE WEST TO BETWEEN LBT AND FLO. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPANDING OVER INTERIOR SC WILL TRACK TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST.
COASTAL TERMINALS TO BECOME VFR EARLY TO MID-AFTERNOON. WITH THE
PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT OVERNIGHT ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD LINGER
THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS BUT MAY STAY SOUTH
OF THE TERMINALS. THERE WILL BE A MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF LIFR/IFR
CONDITIONS IN FG/STRATUS RE-DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. THE LOW
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE MORE RAPIDLY MONDAY MORNING DUE TO
STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...THROUGH THE PERIOD...MORNING FOG/MVFR...SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON...THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...WEAK BOUNDARY STALLED ALONG FRYING PAN SHOALS
LOSING ITS IDENTITY ESPECIALLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE SEA
BREEZE IS DEVELOPING. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE A VERY WEAK
GRADIENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WITH RATHER
LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW ACROSS NORTHERN ZONE OR TWO. A LIGHT WIND
CONTAINING A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT...I.E. SW TO WSW...WILL BE
MAINTAINED OVER SOUTHERN WATERS. WITH SUCH LIGHT WINDS AND IN THE
ABSENCE OF ANY SIGNIFICANT SWELL ENERGY SEAS WILL BE CAPPED AT 2 FT
FOR THE MOST PART.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE ONSHORE WINDS WILL
PREVAIL MONDAY AND TUESDAY...KEEPING SEAS RELATIVELY SMALL FOR
MIDDLE MARCH AND QUITE MANAGEABLE. ESSENTIALLY WE CAN EXPECT 2-3
FOOT SEAS...PRIMARILY SE WAVES OF 1-3 FEET EVERY 78 SECONDS AND
ALIGHT S-SE CHOP ON THE WATERS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BE EXPECTED MAINLY IN THE LATE AFTERNOONS AND OVERNIGHT
BOTH ACROSS WESTERN EDGE OF THE GULF STREAM...AND POSSIBLY INSHORE
AS ISOLATED LATE DAY STORMS DRIFT OFF LAND TOWARD THE S OR SE.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW AROUND BACKSIDE OF
BERMUDA HIGH WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. GRADIENT REMAINS
FAIRLY WEAK THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ONLY A SLIGHT TIGHTENING LATER
FRI...ASSUMING THE TIMING FOR THE SYSTEM EMERGING FROM THE SOUTHWEST
IS CORRECT. SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE 10 TO 15 KT WITH A SLIGHT
INCREASE EACH AFTERNOON AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. ALTHOUGH WINDS
WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT THE PROLONGED RETURN FLOW AROUND THE
BERMUDA HIGH WILL DEVELOP A 7 TO 8 SECOND SOUTHEAST SWELL BETWEEN 2
TO 3 FT ON TOP OF THE 1 TO 2 FT WIND WAVE BEING GENERATED.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...MBB
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...MRR/MBB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
130 PM EDT SUN MAR 18 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A SUMMER LIKE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE NEW WEEK WITH
WARM TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA NEXT
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1000 AM SUNDAY...OPAQUE LAYER OF VERY LOW LEVEL POST-FRONTAL
STRATUS IN PLACE OVER COASTAL ZONES. 12Z MHX SOUNDING INDICATING
THAT THIS LAYER EXTENDS UPWARDS TO ABOUT 1000FT. JUST WEST OF THIS
LAYER THERE IS LITTLE ENOUGH CLOUD COVER THAT SOLAR INSOLATION IS
ALREADY LEADING TO WARMING AND MIXING. TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S
ARE ALL THAT WILL BE REQUIRED TO MIX OUT THE STRATUS DECK AND THIS
IS ALREADY BEING ACHIEVED ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR. SO ALTHOUGH WHILE
IN PLACE THE CLOUDS WILL BE EFFECTIVE IN PREVENTING HEATING THE
WESTERN EDGE SHOULD ERODE...PERHAPS QUICKLY...OVER THE NEXT 2 HOURS
OR SO. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THEIR TREND TOWARDS ABOVE CLIMO
BUT THE DELAYED START TO HEATING OVER CAPE FEAR REGION WILL TEMPER
THE WARMTH COMPARED TO DAYS PREVIOUS. A MODERATE VORT MAX...12 S-1
WILL CROSS THE AREA BY 18Z. THIS MAKES FOR A PROBLEMATIC POP
FORECAST AS THE NET SENSE OF VERTICAL MOTION WILL BE DOWNWARD
THEREAFTER AND ONLY MESOSCALE FORCING MAY MANAGE TO GENERATE PRECIP.
WILL AWAIT MORE MORNING MODEL GUIDANCE TO SEE IF AND HOW POPS FCST
MAY BE REFINED. 12Z RUC HAS A FAIRLY PLAUSIBLE LOOK IN SHOWING BEST
RAINFALL CHANCES AND AMOUNTS OVER SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE FCST
AREA. (WHEREAS CURRENT FORECAST MORE OR LESS 40-ISH AREA-WIDE).
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
AS OF 3:00 AM SUNDAY...MODELS ARE NOW IN SOME GENERAL AGREEMENT
ON A MID LEVEL WEAKNESS PERSISTING OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH A VERY WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN AT THE SURFACE. I HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS TO REPRESENT A MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN TREND AS
FORCING WILL BE RELEGATED TO THE SEA BREEZE AND RESIDUAL
BOUNDARIES. FOR TEMPERATURES...HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
UPWARD TO MATCH THE LATEST GUIDANCE OTHERWISE EXPECT NEAR 80
INLAND AND SOMEWHAT COOLER THE CLOSER YOU GET TO THE COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3:00 AM SUNDAY...FORECAST CHALLENGES FOR THE EXTENDED
REMAIN ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED FROM THIS TIME LAST NIGHT AS THE
AMPLIFIED PATTERN CONTINUES TO YIELD TIMING ISSUES. HPC CONTINUES
TO KEEP FORECAST IN BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE CRITERIA AS THE
CUTOFF LOW IN THE FOUR CORNERS REGION MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. TWEAKED POPS UP SLIGHTLY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS THERE IS A BIT OF AGREEMENT ON A SUBTLE MID LEVEL LOW
MEANDERING ABOUT MAKING THERMAL PROFILES MORE CONDUCIVE TO DIURNAL
CONVECTION. POPS RAMP UP LATER FRIDAY AND INTO THE DAY SATURDAY
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED STORM SYSTEM BUT AGAIN...CONFIDENCE IS
LOW. NO CHANGES TO TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...IFR CEILINGS HAVE LIFTED TO LOW MVFR AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS...EXCEPT AT ILM WHERE CEILINGS WILL LIFT IN THE NEXT HOUR
OR SO. AT FLO/LBT CONDITIONS ARE VFR. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS
LOCATED BETWEEN ILM AND CRE WEST TO BETWEEN LBT AND FLO. SHOWERS
WERE OCCURRING NEAR THE COASTAL TERMINALS BUT COVERAGE HAS NOT BEEN
AS MUCH AS EARLIER EXPECTED. OTHER LIGHT SHOWERS ARE MOVING EAST
TOWARDS FLO/LBT.
EXPECT THE COASTAL TERMINALS TO BECOME VFR EARLY TO MID-AFTERNOON.
LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AND WILL INCLUDE VCSH IN TAFS. DUE TO THE ISOLATED NATURE OF
ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL OMIT FROM TAFS ATTM AND AMEND AS
NECESSARY. WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT OVERNIGHT ISOLATED
SHOWERS COULD LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS
BUT MAY STAY SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS. THERE WILL BE A MUCH BETTER
CHANCE OF LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN FG/STRATUS RE-DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT.
THE LOW CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE MORE RAPIDLY MONDAY MORNING DUE TO
STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...THROUGH THE PERIOD...MORNING FOG/MVFR...SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON...THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM SUNDAY...NO CHANGES IN THINKING WITH RESPECT TO
BOUNDARY POSITION OR THE FORECAST AS A WHOLE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS:
AS OF 400 AM SUNDAY...WEAK GRADIENT WILL AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT RESIDES OVER THE AREA. EXPECT TO
SEE LIGHT E-NE WINDS NORTHERN WATERS AND LIGHT W-SW WINDS SOUTHERN
WATERS. SEA BREEZE MAY MAKE WINDS MORE SE-S AROUND 10 KT THIS
AFTERNOON WITHIN 10 NM OF THE COAST. SEAS OF 3 FT OR LESS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3:00 AM SUNDAY...WEAKLY FORCED WIND FIELDS WILL GRADUALLY
BECOME BETTER DEFINED BY LATE IN THE PERIOD DEVELOPING INTO A TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME PATTERN OF SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE
LIGHT AT OR BELOW TEN KNOTS BEFORE INCREASING WITH THE DEVELOPMENT
OF THE PIEDMONT TROUGH TUESDAY. SEAS INCREASE FROM 2-3 FEET EARLY
TO 2-4 FEET LATE IN THE PERIOD.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3:00 AM SUNDAY...SUMMERTIME PATTERN CONTINUES EACH DAY WITH
SOUTHEAST FLOW INCREASING VIA SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION. SEEMS
UNLIKELY THAT ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS INLAND MAKES A
SUCCESSFUL MOVE ACROSS THE MARINE LAYER TO DISTORT SYNOPTIC WINDS.
SPEEDS OF 10-15 KNOTS. SEAS OF 2-4 FEET INCREASING LATE.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ109.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...MBB/31
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...MRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
636 AM EDT SUN MAR 18 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STALLED SOUTH OF THE AREA
BEFORE DISSIPATING MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE EAST
THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
REGION FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AND CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 635 AM SUNDAY...A FEW SHOWERS HAVE AFFECTED THE SOUTHERN
COASTAL PLAINS...WITH EVEN A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER IN THE PAST
COUPLE OF HOURS. THE PRECIP IS RAPIDLY DECREASING IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY AS OF 10Z AS BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND MAXIMUM
PRECIPITABLE WATER AXIS HAS MOVED SOUTH OF THE REGION. NOT MUCH
CHANGE IN MODEL SOLUTIONS IN THE LATEST RUC13 AND 06Z GFS WHICH
SHOWS BEST MOISTURE/LIFT REMAINING SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA
UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON WHEN AXIS MOVES BACK OVER OUR SOUTHERN
AND WESTERN COUNTIES. WILL HAVE LOW CHC POPS IN THAT
AREA...TAPERING BACK TO A SLIGHT CHC FURTHER NORTH AND EAST. MAX
TEMPS SHOULD BE INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S WITH A FEW UPPER
70S...DESPITE WHAT WILL BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER GIVEN LOW
OVERCAST WHICH SHOULD RULE FOR MOST OF THE MORNING HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
AS OF 355 AM SUNDAY...BASED ON THE MODEL MOISTURE PROFILE SHOWING
BEST PRECIPITABLE WATER/MIXING RATIO/SPECIFIC HUMIDITY AXIS OVER
THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE CWA THRU TONIGHT...WILL AGAIN HAVE 20
TO 30 PCT POPS IN THIS AREA WITH MINIMAL POPS OVER THE NORTH AND
EASTERN CWA. GIVEN THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTENT...EXPECT MORE
LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHES OF FOG OVERNIGHT AS WELL. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES REMAIN RATHER WARM FOR MID-MARCH WITH MOST AREAS IN
THE MIDDLE 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SUN...THE REGION WILL BE STUCK IN OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN
THROUGH THE WEEK...AS UPPER RIDGE REMAINS DETACHED FROM MAIN BELT OF
WESTERLIES FAR TO THE NORTH IN CENTRAL CANADA. THIS WILL BRING MORE
OF A `SUMMER-LIKE` PATTERN TO E NC...IN THAT ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THE PERIOD. BEST CHANCE FOR
SEEING AN ISO TSTORM ARE AWAY FROM THE COAST WITH SEA BREEZE
INTERACTION. NOCTURNAL STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS EACH NIGHT DUE TO COASTAL TROUGH AND WARMER SST`S NEAR THE
GULF STREAM. COULD SEE THIS COASTAL TROUGH MOVE TOWARDS THE COAST BY
MIDWEEK WHICH MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS ONSHORE.
BLOCKING PATTERN MAY BREAK DOWN AS EARLY AS LATE THIS WEEK...AS
CUTOFF/CLOSED LOW EXPECTED TO MIGRATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PART OF THE CONUS. HOWEVER...WITH MODEL TENDENCY PRONE TO BREAK DOWN
BLOCKING PATTERNS TOO QUICKLY...CHANCES OF RECEIVING ANY ORGANIZED
SHOWERS BEFORE THE WEEKEND ARE VERY SLIM AT BEST.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 635 AM SUNDAY...IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE PREVAILING AT ALL
TAF SITES THIS MORNING AS 11-3.9 MICRON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
FAIRLY SOLID DECK OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG COVERING MUCH OF EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA EAST OF I-95. WILL INDICATE CEILINGS RISING TO MVFR BY
MID-MORNING THEN ABOUT A 4000-5000 FOOT CEILING BY MID AFTERNOON.
MOST ALL NUMERICAL GUIDANCE INDICATE ANOTHER ROUND OF IFR/LIFR
CEILINGS AND VSBYS BY LATE TONIGHT AS MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS IN
PLACE.
LONG TERM /SUN NIGHT THROUGH THU/
AS OF 330 AM SUN...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH LIGHT
SOUTHERLY/EASTERLY COMPONENT WINDS DUE TO SFC HIGH OFF THE SE COAST.
WIDELY SCT MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION MAY LOWER
CIGS/VSBYS TO MVFR/IFR BRIEFLY AT TIMES. FOG IS POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT
INTO EARLY MORNING ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 635 AM SUNDAY...NE WINDS OF GENERALLY 10 TO 15 KNOTS BEING
OBSERVED AT 10Z THIS MORNING WITH SEAS GENERALLY 3 TO 5 FEET.
LATEST RUC13 DOES INDICATE SOME 15 TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE OVER THE
OUTER WATERS UP NORTH THIS MORNING...BUT MOST OF THE MARINE ZONES
WILL BE IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE SO NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE
FORECAST.
LONG TERM /SUN NIGHT THROUGH THU/
AS OF 330 AM SUN...LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW EXPECTED OVER THE WATERS
INITIALLY THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH PRES RIDGES SOUTH THROUGH THE
COASTAL WATERS. THE SFC HIGH WILL DRIFT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND EAST
THAT SOUTHERLY GRADIENT FLOW WILL FINALLY BE REALIZED BY LATE
TUESDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT GENERALLY AROUND 10 KT AS THE HIGH
WILL BE STUBBORN TO DEPART THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
SEAS WILL BE CORRESPONDINGLY LOW...WITH GENERAL 2 TO 3 FOOT
SEAS...WITH SOME 4 FOOT SETS FURTHER OUT IN THE OUTER WATERS.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...CTC/TL
MARINE...CTC/TL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1253 AM EDT SUN MAR 18 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT THEN
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH MID WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1245 AM SUNDAY...LATEST RUC13 HAS A FAIRLY GOOD HANDLE ON
THE PRECIPITATION AT THE CURRENT TIME. THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL
STAY THE OUR SOUTH AND WEST AND OFFSHORE WITH LITTLE EXPECTED OVER
THE CWA. WILL LEAVE IN SMALL CHANCES TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY
OF SOME OF THE ACTIVITY NEAR RALEIGH MAKING IT THIS FAR EAST LATE
TONIGHT. OTHER ISSUE AT MOMENT IS LARGE AREA OF STRATUS AND FOG
WORKING ITS WAY SOUTH AND WEST...ROUGHLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE
HIGHWAY 17 CORRIDOR. WILL MONITOR THE NEED FOR A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY LATER ON...BUT CURRENTLY VSBYS LARGELY AROUND A MILE AND
A SPS HAS ALREADY BEEN ISSUED FOR THE OUTER BANKS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM SATURDAY...REMNANTS OF THE FRONT WILL BE S OF REGION
SUNDAY. MDLS SHOW BETTER MOISTURE CONTINUING OVER SRN AND INLAND
AREAS AND EXPECT WITH SOME INSTAB WILL HAVE SCT SHRA/TSRA THESE
AREAS. FURTHER N ATMS IS DRIER AND MORE STABLE SO HAVE KEPT POPS
OUT OF THE NRN TIER AND IMD CST. ONCE MORN FOG/ST BURNS OFF TEMPS
WILL RISE TO THE MID AND UPR 70S SW...WITH ONSHORE FLOW NE
SECTIONS WILL ONLY REACH THE LOW/MID 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SAT...AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL BE PRESENT TO START
THE LONG TERM WITH A LONGWAVE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE ERN CONUS AND A
DEEP UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE WRN CONUS. A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
RIDES OVER THE RIDGE SUN AND REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SFC HIGH PRES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC SLOWLY
MIGRATES SWD INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH A COASTAL TROUGH
LINGERING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN
DOMINANT BUT SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL PRESENT EACH
AFTERNOON FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM TO DEVELOP ACROSS
INLAND AREAS AND ENHANCED CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF THE GULF
STREAM DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. FORCING WILL BE WEAK WITH
CONVECTION MAINLY DRIVEN BY THE SEA/LAND BREEZE CIRCULATION. SOME
MODELS BRINGING THE COASTAL TROUGH TOWARD THE COAST EARLY TUE OR
EARLY WED (DEPENDING ON THE MODEL) AS THE HIGH MIGRATES SWD AND
COULD SEE A FEW SHOWER APPROACH COASTAL AREAS THOSE MORNINGS. WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH LOW LEVEL RH`S COULD SEE FOG DEVELOP EACH
MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAIN THE AFTERNOON
BEFORE.
BY AROUND NEXT WED...THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE W
DEVELOPS INTO A CUT-OFF LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND SLOWLY
PUSHES EWD THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. AS IS ALWAYS THE
CASE...MODELS OFFERING A WIDE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS AS TO THE
PROGRESSION LOW EWD AND TIMING OF IMPACTS ACROSS THE REGION.
ENSEMBLE MEAN GENERALLY SUPPORTS TIMING ON THE SLOWER SIDE OF
MODEL SOLUTIONS AND AT THIS TIME EXPECTING MAIN IMPACT TO AFFECT
ERN NC FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. COULD SEE A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY
SEVERE STORMS DEVELOP IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH
THE PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW DETERMINING BEST UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT.
TEMPS CONTINUE TO BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
LONG TERM WITH LITTLE DAY TO DAY VARIATION. EXPECT HIGHS INLAND
REACHING THE M70S TO M60S COAST AND LOWS IN THE 50S.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1235 AM SUNDAY...LARGE AREA OF STRATUS AND FOG ADVECTING
SOUTH AND WEST FROM THE OUTER BANKS AND EXPECTED AT ALL OF THE TAF
SITES WITH IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS BECOMING WIDESPREAD BY 06Z.
EXPECT IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS TO LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH ANY
FOG BURNING OFF BY MID MORNING...WITH MVFR BKN STRATUS DECK
LINGERING INTO THE LATE MORNING. LIGHT NELY/ELY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
SUNDAY.
LONG TERM /SUN NIGHT THROUGH THU/
AS OF 300 PM SAT...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH LIGHT WINDS
DUE TO SFC HIGH NEARBY. WIDELY SCT MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
CONVECTION MAY LOWER CIGS/VSBYS TO MVFR/IFR AT TIMES. FOG IS
POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT
RECEIVE RAINFALL.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1235 AM SUNDAY...NE WINDS CONTINUE AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH
SEAS GENERALLY 2 TO 4 FEET WITH A ROLLING 9 TO 11 SECOND SWELL AS
OF 04Z. MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO CURRENT MARINE FORECAST...MAINLY
A SLIGHT UPTICK OF WINDS OVER THE SOUNDS AND NORTHERN WATERS BASED
ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING A BIT
MORE OF A GRADIENT OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS.
LONG TERM /SUN NIGHT THROUGH THU/
AS OF 300 PM SAT...LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW EXPECTED OVER THE WATERS
INITIALLY THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH PRES RIDGES SOUTH THROUGH THE
COASTAL WATERS. THE SFC HIGH WILL DRIFT SWD AFTER MON WITH WINDS
BECOMING SELY TUE AND WED...THEN TRENDING TO SLY THU. WINDS
INITIALLY AOB 10 KT BUT MODELS A LITTLE STRONGER WITH THE HIGH INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND PRODUCE WINDS AROUND 10-15 KT. SEAS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE 2-4 FT.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...CTC/SK/LEP
MARINE...CTC/SK/LEP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
906 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012
.DISCUSSION...
MAIN CHANGE WAS TO TWEAK POPS AND WX FOR THIS EVENING. SPC MESO
ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE DECENT MUCAPE THAT COVERED MUCH OF THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON HAS DWINDLED DOWN TO 500
J/KG IN THE NORTHEASTERN TIER OF COUNTIES. RADAR AND LIGHTNING
DATA TRENDS HAVE BEEN GOING DOWNWARD IN THE LAST FEW HOURS...SO
CHANGED WX TYPE TO JUST SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS...GOING OVER TO ONLY SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
CONTINUED TO KEEP POPS IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES PRETTY HIGH AS
RADAR SHOWS RAIN MOVING NORTHWARD FROM WADENA TO LAKE OF THE
WOODS. THERE SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE EAST
OF THE RED RIVER UNTIL THE MAIN COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH LATER
TONIGHT. HRRR AND 00Z NAM BOTH HAVE QPF HANGING AROUND FOR MUCH
OF THE NIGHT...AND GIVEN THE SCATTERED SHOWERS LINGERING DOWN INTO
SD AND NEB THIS SEEMS REASONABLE. WILL KEEP POPS CATEGORICAL FOR
EARLY EVENING IN THE EAST AND THEN DOWN TO LIKELY FROM 03-06Z AND
WILL KEEP THE DROP DOWN TO CHANCE LATE TONIGHT. MADE A FEW MINOR
TWEAKS TO HOURLY TEMPS...BUT LOWS LOOK ON TRACK TO DROP INTO THE
UPPER 30S IN THE WEST WITH AROUND 50 IN THE EAST BY MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CLEARED OUT OF ALL TAF SITES WITH ONLY A BIT OF
-RA HANGING AROUND KBJI. CEILINGS HAVE BEEN VFR AND CLOUDS WILL
BEGIN TO DECREASE AFTER 06Z TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT USHERS IN
DRIER AIR AND WESTERLY WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KTS. THE WEST WINDS AND
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF
PERIOD.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012/
SHORT TERM...
WE WILL CANCEL THE WIND ADVISORY THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR THE DEVILS
LAKE BASIN...WITH WINDS REMAINING BELOW CRITERIA. IT WILL REMAIN
WINDY THROUGH THE EVENING FOR MOST AREAS THOUGH.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012/
SHORT TERM...
THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE CONVECTIVE/SEVERE CHANCES THROUGH THIS
EVENING AND TEMPS. MODELS ARE IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT...AND HAVE
BEEN FOLLOWING THE RUC/HRRR IN THE NEAR TERM.
FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...EXPECT A BAND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH AND DEVELOP
NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE EVENING. THERE WILL BE AMPLE DEEP
LAYERED SHEAR AND INSTABILITY FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS...WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL THE MAIN THREATS.
FOR TUE...EXPECT A COOLER DAY ALTHOUGH HIGHS WILL STILL BE ABOUT
20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE IN ALL AREAS BY AFTERNOON.
ON WED...TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE LOW/MID 60S FOR THE REGION WITH
NEARLY FULL INSOLATION.
FOR THU...EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHEAST BY
AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE SPINS IN FROM A CLOSED LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. IT WILL STILL BE VERY WARM WITH MOST AREAS INTO THE LOWER/MIDDLE
60S ONCE AGAIN.
LONG TERM (THU NITE THROUGH MONDAY)...
MAJOR GUIDANCE IN AGREEMENT WITH SPLIT FLOW REGIME DEPICTING CLOSED
LOW MOVING INTO OHIO VALLEY AND UPSTREAM RIDGING TO INCLUDE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THIS PORTENDS CONTINUATION OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. SHOWERS WILL BE EXITING
FRIDAY...VESTIGIAL PIECES OF THE UPPER LOW/S LONG REACH TO THE
WEST. ZONAL FLOW PREDOMINATES FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH A COUPLE OF RIPPLES MOVING THROUGH WITH SOME LIQUID
PRECIPITATION MAINLY CLOSE TO THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
JR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
958 AM CDT SUN MAR 18 2012
.DISCUSSION...
MORNING UPDATE FOCUSED ON SKY TRENDS...TEMPS...AND DISSIPATION OF
SOME EARLY MORNING FOG ALONG THE HWY 2 CORRIDOR AND ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. THINK ANY FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT
HOUR OR SO AS WINDS/MIXING PICKS UP...SO WILL PULL FOG AT 16Z.
UPDATED FCST TREND USING A WEIGHTED MODEL BLEND WITH PREV
FORECAST...WHICH WORKED WELL FOR MAJORITY OF CWA.
WASKISH...HOWEVER...IS THE HOT SPOT THIS MORNING AT 64 F BY 9 AM.
MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THAT AREA TO WARM THINGS UP. BIGGEST ISSUE
WILL BE HOW MUCH CLOUDS MOVING INTO SE ZONES OFFSET WAA IN THE
AREA...AS WARM...MOIST AIR ADVECTS IN FROM SOUTHWEST MN. WILL GO
WITH AFOREMENTIONED TEMP BLEND AND SEE HOW IT VERIFIES WITH 10 AM
OBS...BUT MAY BE A BIT WARM IN THE SE. OTHER ISSUE IS GUSTY
WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEY...WHICH WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR
ADV CONDS BUT AT THE MOMENT...IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL REMAIN BELOW
25 KT SUSTAINED WINDS. WILL SEE HOW GFS MOS GUIDANCE LOOKS WHEN IT
COMES IN AND ADJUST AS NECESSARY WITH A SECOND UPDATE.
&&
.AVIATION...
LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE AT KDVL AS PATCHY DENSE FOG
DECK LIFTS AND DISSIPATES BY LATE MORNING. A GENERALLY IFR DECK WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA THIS MORNING
AND SHOULD IMPACT ALL REMAINING TAF SITES BY 18Z. SOUTHEASTERLY
SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE THIS MORNING AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP. AT THE PRESENT TIME...EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS
OF AROUND 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KNOTS KNOTS TO BE
PREVALENT THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
FARGO IS JUST ABOUT READY TO PEAK AT JUST BELOW FLOOD STAGE.
HICKSON UPSTREAM FROM FARGO CRESTED OVERNIGHT.
STILL SOME RISES ALONG THE MAINSTEM RED DOWNSTREAM FROM FARGO BUT
WELL WITHIN BANKS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CDT SUN MAR 18 2012/
SHORT TERM...
BIG CHALLENGE IS EARLY ON TODAY REGARDING THE EXTENT OF MORNING
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS. RAPID REFRESH MODEL DOING QUITE WELL AGAIN IN
HANDLING DEVELOPMENT. FOG AREA FORMED NR 06Z AROUND DEVILS LAKE TO
HARVEY...AND THIS AREA EXPANDING A BIT EAST TO GRAFTON AT 08Z WITH
FOG DEVELOPING SOUTHWARD IN A NARROW ZONE ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
RED RIVER VALLEY THROUGH GRAND FORKS AIR BASE TO ORISKA-BUFFALO
ND BTWN VALLEY CITY AND FARGO. RR MODEL SHOWED THIS QUITE WELL.
THIS INITIAL FOG FORMATION AREA IS VERY NEAR THE FRONTAL ZONE
WHICH PER OBS EXTENDS FROM ABOUT FLAG ISLAND TO PEMBINA THEN TO
DEVILS LAKE WITH EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS NORTH OF FRONT AND SOUTHEAST
WINDS SOUTH OF IT.
OTHERWISE THE CLEAR SKY. ISSUE SEEMS TO BE IN LOCALIZED AREAS THAT
CAN DROP BLO 5 KT WIND....THAT IS THE CATALYST FOR TEMPS TO DROP
QUICKLY TO WELL BELOW THE EVENING DEW PT AND FOG TO FORM. RR MODEL
HAS LOW CLOUD CLOUD/FOG AREA HOLDING IN THIS AREA WITH SOME
EXTENSION SOUTH TOWARD LISBON. ALSO IT PICKS UP ON THE STRATOCU
FORMING IN NEBRASKA AND RACES IT NORTH THRU ERN SD INTO SE ND
TOWARD 12Z-13Z IN ZONE OF 40-45 KT LOW LEVEL JET. THEN IT HAS SLOW
DISSIPATION OF FOG/CLOUDS THRU LATE MORNING WITH LAST PLACE TO
CLEAR OUT THIS AFTN BEING THE DVL BASIN. THUS WILL TREND COOLEST
TEMPS IN THAT REGION TODAY WITH MOSTLY 70-75 OVER THE REST OF THE
AREA.
IN TERMS OF PRECIP CHANCES THEY LOOK AWFULLY LOW. GFS/NAM MODEL
HAVE QUITE STABLE SOUNDINGS ABOVE THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION TODAY
WITH NEGATIVE CAPE HIGHER THAN POSITIVE CAPES IN MOST AREAS. LACK
OF ANY FORCING AS WELL SO COORD WITH BIS AND REMOVED MENTION. HAVE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BUT 850-500 MB LAYER QUITE WARM TO GET TOO MUCH
GOING WITHOUT ANY FRONT. DOES APPEAR AS WELL FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH
OUT OF THE NW FCST AREA BY LATE MORNING.
LOW LEVEL JET OF 40-50 KTS WILL BE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND SFC
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN UP IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE WITH GUSTS IN THE
VALLEY. THUS THREAT FOR FOG SEEMS VERY LOW.
MOST MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN HAVING A SHORT WAVE RIDE NORTH
INTO CNTRL ND MONDAY AFTN WITH SURGE OF MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION
OVER FAR ERN ND INTO MOST OF MINNESOTA MONDAY AFTN-EVE. DRY SLOT
WILL WORK EAST GRADUALLY MON NIGHT. 00Z EC MODEL IS A BIT SLOWER
AND HAS MORE PRECIP IN ERN ND THAN OTHER MODELS WHICH SHOW MORE IN
MINNESOTA THAN NORTH DAKOTA. CHAT WITH HPC QPF DAY 2 REVEALS IDEA
OF GOING LESS THAN ECMWF QPF SHOWS. EITHER WAY NOT A BIG EVENT
PRECIP WISE WITH MOST MODELS HAVING 0.10 TO 0.33 INCH WITH PERAPS
A BIT HIGHER IN THE EASTERN FCST AREA WHERE PRECIP WILL LINGER
LONGER. SHOWWALTERS AND OTHER THUNDERSTORM INDICIES ARE NOT THAT
IMPRESSIVE MONDAY AFTN BUT ENOUGH FOR SOME THUNDER.
WILL LINGER PRECIP CHANCES IN ERN FCST AREA TUESDAY...O/W DRY WITH
SOME CLEARING OVER ERN ND. TEMPS A BIT COOLER BUT STILL WAY ABOVE NORMAL.
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT IN SLOWLY CLOSING OFF THE
UPPER SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND TRANSLATING IT EASTWARD BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD...WITH THE GFS STILL A BIT SLOWER. IT APPEARS MILD
AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH PREDOMINANTLY ZONAL
MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
IN THUR NIGHT MAINLY IN MN AS ECMWF/GFS BRING THE PRECIP SHIELD
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS NORTHWARD.
HIGHS IN THE 50S/LOW 60S ARE EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
PERIOD WITH WESTERLY WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY BY THUR. ECMWF CONTINUES
TO BE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DRAGGING A FRONT INTO
THE REGION ON FRIDAY...WARRANTING LOWER TEMPS FOR SAT. WARM AIR
ADVECTION LOOKS TO KICK IN AGAIN JUST BEYOND THIS PERIOD.
AVIATION...
A TOUGH FCST TO START THE DAY...ESP AT KGFK. GRAND FORKS AIRPORT
SEEMS ON THE EDGE OF DENSE FOG TO THE WEST AT GRAND FORK AIR BASE.
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN IF FOG WILL ADVECT EAST AND BE DENSE LIKE AT RDR
OR NOT. OTHERWISE LIKELY THAT KDVL AIRPORT WILL REMAIN IN DENSE
FOG THROUGH MID MORNING. KFAR-KTVF AND KBJI AND OTHER AREAS EAST
AND SOUTH OF THIS AREA STAND A BETTER CHANCE TO ONLY GET SOME
LIGHT FOG. THOUGH COULD SEE MVFR CIGS SPREAD NORTH IN LOW LEVEL
JET THIS MORNING AND AFFECT FARGO BY 12Z-13Z. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING
AND DURATION OF ALL THIS IS QUITE LOW. WOULD THINK MOST SITES WILL
BE VFR THIS AFTN AND LIKELY REMAIN VFR TONIGHT WITH SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST WIND 15 TO 25 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY.
HYDROLOGY...
THINGS WINDING DOWN WITH FARGO ABOUT READY TO PEAK JUST BELOW
FLOOD STAGE. DAYSHFIT CAN CHAT WITH RFC ABOUT FCST AS IT MAY WELL
NOT REACH FLOOD STAGE. HICKSON UPSTREAM FROM FARGO CRESTED OVERNIGHT.
STILL SOME RISES ALONG THE MAINSTEM RED DOWNSTREAM FROM FARGO BUT
WELL WITHIN BANKS.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SPEICHER/BRAMER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
345 AM CDT SUN MAR 18 2012
.SHORT TERM...
BIG CHALLENGE IS EARLY ON TODAY REGARDING THE EXTENT OF MORNING
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS. RAPID REFRESH MODEL DOING QUITE WELL AGAIN IN
HANDLING DEVELOPMENT. FOG AREA FORMED NR 06Z AROUND DEVILS LAKE TO
HARVEY...AND THIS AREA EXPANDING A BIT EAST TO GRAFTON AT 08Z WITH
FOG DEVELOPING SOUTHWARD IN A NARROW ZONE ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
RED RIVER VALLEY THROUGH GRAND FORKS AIR BASE TO ORISKA-BUFFALO
ND BTWN VALLEY CITY AND FARGO. RR MODEL SHOWED THIS QUITE WELL.
THIS INITIAL FOG FORMATION AREA IS VERY NEAR THE FRONTAL ZONE
WHICH PER OBS EXTENDS FROM ABOUT FLAG ISLAND TO PEMBINA THEN TO
DEVILS LAKE WITH EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS NORTH OF FRONT AND SOUTHEAST
WINDS SOUTH OF IT.
OTHERWISE THE CLEAR SKY. ISSUE SEEMS TO BE IN LOCALIZED AREAS THAT
CAN DROP BLO 5 KT WIND....THAT IS THE CATALYST FOR TEMPS TO DROP
QUICKLY TO WELL BELOW THE EVENING DEW PT AND FOG TO FORM. RR MODEL
HAS LOW CLOUD CLOUD/FOG AREA HOLDING IN THIS AREA WITH SOME
EXTENSION SOUTH TOWARD LISBON. ALSO IT PICKS UP ON THE STRATOCU
FORMING IN NEBRASKA AND RACES IT NORTH THRU ERN SD INTO SE ND
TOWARD 12Z-13Z IN ZONE OF 40-45 KT LOW LEVEL JET. THEN IT HAS SLOW
DISSIPATION OF FOG/CLOUDS THRU LATE MORNING WITH LAST PLACE TO
CLEAR OUT THIS AFTN BEING THE DVL BASIN. THUS WILL TREND COOLEST
TEMPS IN THAT REGION TODAY WITH MOSTLY 70-75 OVER THE REST OF THE
AREA.
IN TERMS OF PRECIP CHANCES THEY LOOK AWFULLY LOW. GFS/NAM MODEL
HAVE QUITE STABLE SOUNDINGS ABOVE THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION TODAY
WITH NEGATIVE CAPE HIGHER THAN POSITIVE CAPES IN MOST AREAS. LACK
OF ANY FORCING AS WELL SO COORD WITH BIS AND REMOVED MENTION. HAVE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BUT 850-500 MB LAYER QUITE WARM TO GET TOO MUCH
GOING WITHOUT ANY FRONT. DOES APPEAR AS WELL FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH
OUT OF THE NW FCST AREA BY LATE MORNING.
LOW LEVEL JET OF 40-50 KTS WILL BE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND SFC
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN UP IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE WITH GUSTS IN THE
VALLEY. THUS THREAT FOR FOG SEEMS VERY LOW.
MOST MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN HAVING A SHORT WAVE RIDE NORTH
INTO CNTRL ND MONDAY AFTN WITH SURGE OF MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION
OVER FAR ERN ND INTO MOST OF MINNESOTA MONDAY AFTN-EVE. DRY SLOT
WILL WORK EAST GRADUALLY MON NIGHT. 00Z EC MODEL IS A BIT SLOWER
AND HAS MORE PRECIP IN ERN ND THAN OTHER MODELS WHICH SHOW MORE IN
MINNESOTA THAN NORTH DAKOTA. CHAT WITH HPC QPF DAY 2 REVEALS IDEA
OF GOING LESS THAN ECMWF QPF SHOWS. EITHER WAY NOT A BIG EVENT
PRECIP WISE WITH MOST MODELS HAVING 0.10 TO 0.33 INCH WITH PERAPS
A BIT HIGHER IN THE EASTERN FCST AREA WHERE PRECIP WILL LINGER
LONGER. SHOWWALTERS AND OTHER THUNDERSTORM INDICIES ARE NOT THAT
IMPRESSIVE MONDAY AFTN BUT ENOUGH FOR SOME THUNDER.
WILL LINGER PRECIP CHANCES IN ERN FCST AREA TUESDAY...O/W DRY WITH
SOME CLEARING OVER ERN ND. TEMPS A BIT COOLER BUT STILL WAY ABOVE NORMAL.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT IN SLOWLY CLOSING OFF THE
UPPER SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND TRANSLATING IT EASTWARD BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD...WITH THE GFS STILL A BIT SLOWER. IT APPEARS MILD
AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH PREDOMINANTLY ZONAL
MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
IN THUR NIGHT MAINLY IN MN AS ECMWF/GFS BRING THE PRECIP SHIELD
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS NORTHWARD.
HIGHS IN THE 50S/LOW 60S ARE EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
PERIOD WITH WESTERLY WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY BY THUR. ECMWF CONTINUES
TO BE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DRAGGING A FRONT INTO
THE REGION ON FRIDAY...WARRANTING LOWER TEMPS FOR SAT. WARM AIR
ADVECTION LOOKS TO KICK IN AGAIN JUST BEYOND THIS PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...
A TOUGH FCST TO START THE DAY...ESP AT KGFK. GRAND FORKS AIRPORT
SEEMS ON THE EDGE OF DENSE FOG TO THE WEST AT GRAND FORK AIR BASE.
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN IF FOG WILL ADVECT EAST AND BE DENSE LIKE AT RDR
OR NOT. OTHERWISE LIKELY THAT KDVL AIRPORT WILL REMAIN IN DENSE
FOG THROUGH MID MORNING. KFAR-KTVF AND KBJI AND OTHER AREAS EAST
AND SOUTH OF THIS AREA STAND A BETTER CHANCE TO ONLY GET SOME
LIGHT FOG. THOUGH COULD SEE MVFR CIGS SPREAD NORTH IN LOW LEVEL
JET THIS MORNING AND AFFECT FARGO BY 12Z-13Z. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING
AND DURATION OF ALL THIS IS QUITE LOW. WOULD THINK MOST SITES WILL
BE VFR THIS AFTN AND LIKELY REMAIN VFR TONIGHT WITH SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST WIND 15 TO 25 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
THINGS WINDING DOWN WITH FARGO ABOUT READY TO PEAK JUST BELOW
FLOOD STAGE. DAYSHFIT CAN CHAT WITH RFC ABOUT FCST AS IT MAY WELL
NOT REACH FLOOD STAGE. HICKSON UPSTREAM FROM FARGO CRESTED OVERNIGHT.
STILL SOME RISES ALONG THE MAINSTEM RED DOWNSTREAM FROM FARGO BUT
WELL WITHIN BANKS.
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
RIDDLE/MAKOWSKI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
215 AM EDT SUN MAR 18 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE EAST COAST...A SOUTHERLY FLOW
AROUND THE HIGH WILL ALLOW AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AIRMASS TO PERSIST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE
INTERACTING WITH THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE FLOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
WILL BECOME ANTICYCLONIC AND WARMER AIR WILL MOVE IN ALOFT ON
MONDAY WHICH WILL BRING AN END TO THE THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
DIFFICULT NEAR TERM FORECAST AS MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING THE WEAK
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WELL ALONG WITH THE CONVECTION THAT THEY
ARE PRODUCING. HAVE BASED THE UPDATE ON THE LATEST MOSAIC RADAR
AND HRRR WHICH SUGGEST THAT THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS
OVERNIGHT WILL BE ACRS THE SRN ZONES. HAVE PLACED LIKELY POPS HERE
AND THEN TAPER POPS OFF TO THE N AND NE. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
OVERNIGHT AND WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S...LOWS WILL
LIKELY SETTLE IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S AS WELL...WHICH ARE HIGHER
THAN NORMAL HIGHS THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY PERSIST ON SUNDAY AS AN
EMBEDDED S/WV CRAWLS EAST ACRS THE REGION AND INSTABILITY LINGERS
INTO THE AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED DUE TO MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND RATHER WEAK WIND
FIELDS...THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT LARGE HAIL WITH WBZ HEIGHTS AROUND
9 KFT.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE SHORT
WAVE LIFTS NORTH AND AN UPPER RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD IN. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY MONDAY EVENING AS THE UPPER RIDGE BECOMES
ESTABLISHED AND A CYCLONIC FLOW DEVELOPS IN LOWER LEVELS.
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY MORE THAN 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD. HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S ON SUNDAY AND
AROUND 80 ON MONDAY WILL BE FLIRTING WITH RECORD HIGHS AT OUR 3
CLIMATE SITES AT CINCINNATI...COLUMBUS AND DAYTON.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WITH A TROF OVER THE
WEST AND A LARGE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS RIDGE
WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER AND MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. FOR
TUESDAY HAVE FCST HIGHS FROM NEAR 80 NORTH TO THE LOWER 80S SOUTH.
RECORD HIGHS WILL BE IN JEOPARDY OF FALLING. TUESDAYS RECORD HIGHS
ARE CVG 82, DAY 79 AND CMH 78.
THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST COAST ON
WEDNESDAY WITH THE UPPER TROF MOVING INTO THE NATIONS MID SECTION.
GIVEN THE HIGH DEGREE OF AMPLIFICATION...PREFER THE SLOWER ECMWF
SOLN...KEEPING THE REGION DRY ON WED. EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 70S NORTH TO 80 SOUTH. AGAIN RECORDS WILL BE IN JEOPARDY WITH
WEDNESDAY RECORDS STANDING AT 79 FOR CVG, 78 FOR DAY AND 80 AT
CMH.
UPPER LEVEL LOW TO PUSH SLOWLY EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
THURSDAY/FRIDAY. NUMERICAL MODELS GENERALLY SIMILAR WITH THE CENTER
OF THE LOW CLOSE TO CVG BY FRIDAY EVENING. WILL INTRODUCE LOW POPS
INTO THE SW LATE WED NIGHT AND THEN SPREAD THIS CHC NE ACRS THE FA
THURSDAY. WL BUMP POPS UP TO HIGH CHC LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY
FRIDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY. UNDER CONTD
INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LOW...WL CONTINUE LOW POPS INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
HAVE TRENDED THURSDAYS AND FRIDAYS HIGHS A LTL ABOVE GUID BUT OPTED
TO GO COOLER ON SATURDAY FOLLOWING ECMWF SOLN WHICH BRINGS IN COLDER
AIR.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
H5 SHORTWAVE OVER ILLINOIS WILL SLOWLY UNDERCUT THE ESTABLISHED
RIDGE OVER THE REGION EARLY TODAY. NAM SHOWING A SURFACE
CIRCULATION UNDERNEATH IT BUT THIS APPEARS TO BE FAR-FETCHED GIVEN
THE H5 WAVE IS OPEN IN NATURE. THE WAVE IS EAST OF THE TAF SITES
BY 0Z AND THERE SHOULD BE A MARKED DECREASE IN SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AT THIS TIME.
ONGOING CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE FAVORED TO ONLY AFFECT KCMH/KLCK
IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS BUT THIS IS STILL OPEN TO A LOT OF
INTERPRETATION AND I AM NOT INCLUDING THESE SHOWERS UNTIL I AM
CERTAIN THAT THEY ARE GOING TO OCCUR. MODELS HAVE BEEN NOTORIOUSLY
BAD WITH THIS AIRMASS AND INITIATION AND/OR PLACEMENT OF
CONVECTION.
KEPT VFR CONDITIONS WITH A SCT-BKN CU DECK AOA 5KFT TODAY. EXPECT
ANY STORMS TODAY TO BRING ABOUT A HIGHER DECK OF 15KFT LATER IN
THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT. GENERALLY KEPT A VISCINITY SHOWER DURING
THE DAY AND DROPPED IT AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER SHORTWAVE.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO/HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...FRANKS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PORTLAND OR
845 PM PDT MON MAR 19 2012
.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THIS
EVENING...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT THAT WILL STALL ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SNOW LEVELS SHOULD RISE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
LIMIT MOST SNOW TO THE CASCADES. THE RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AT
TIMES TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...AND THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING OF LOCAL STREAMS AND RIVERS TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW ELEVATION
SNOW DEPENDING ON WHERE THE FRONT SETS UP WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
COOL AND SHOWERY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...0Z SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTS A FAIRLY STRONG SFC LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH AN OCCLUDING SYSTEM OFF THE B.C. COAST. THE WARM
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS NEAR THE COAST...AND THUS
ISENTROPIC LIFT IS INCREASING. LATEST RUC ANALYSES DEPICTS THE
STRONGEST LIFT WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG THE COAST/COAST RANGE THIS
EVENING...WITH MODEST LIFT SPREADING INLAND LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW. EXPECT SNOW LEVELS
TO REMAIN BELOW PASS LEVELS AS THE WARM SECTOR COLLAPSES WITH THE
COLD SECTOR QUICKLY OVERTAKING IT. KLGX/KRTX RADAR CONFIRMS AN
INCREASE IN RAIN AT THE COAST...WITH CONTINUED LIGHT THOUGH SOMEWHAT
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN INLAND.
WINDS WILL INCREASE ALONG THE COAST WITH THE FRONT TONIGHT...WITH A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SUSTAINED 30 TO 40 MPH SOUTH WINDS AND OCCASIONAL
HIGHER GUSTS. SNOW LEVELS HAVE BEEN GRADUALLY RISING TODAY BUT STILL
REMAIN WELL BELOW PASS LEVEL AND SHOULD REMAIN AT OR JUST BELOW PASS
LEVEL AS THE MAIN PRECIPITATION ARRIVES WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
LATE TONIGHT. THERE IS PLENTY OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM...WITH A LONG FETCH OF 1.25-1.50 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES ENTRAINING INTO THE SYSTEM.
THE CASCADES WILL GET A GOOD DOSE OF SNOW TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WILL MAINTAIN THE WINTER STORM WARNING. THE MOUNTAINS WILL
CONTINUE TO PILE UP SNOW FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. PREVIOUS SHIFT ENDED
THE WINTER STORM WARNING AT 0Z FOR AN EXPECTED BREAK IN
PRECIPITATION...AS OROGRAPHIC FLOW EASES...BUT THE NEXT WAVE WILL BE
QUICKLY ON ITS HEELS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE THE FRONT ON
TUESDAY SETS UP.. HAVE NOT MADE ANY CHANGES TO THE WARNING...BUT
EXPECT THAT ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY SNOWFALL WILL COMMENCE SOMETIME
TUESDAY NIGHT...AND MAY JUST KEEP ON GOING...WARRANTING A GENERAL
CONTINUATION OF THE WARNING. ELSEWHERE... MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
WILL FALL AS RAIN FOR THIS FIRST WAVE. EXPECT UP TO 1 INCH OF RAIN
ACROSS THE COAST RANGE...0.75 TO 1 INCH ALONG THE COAST AND LESS
THAN 0.75 INCH IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND THE I-5 CORRIDOR FROM 5
PM TODAY THROUGH 5 PM TUESDAY.
THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AS
ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST...AND
BRINGS ANOTHER BAND OF MOISTURE. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY OF WHERE THE
FRONT WILL STALL...AND THE CORRESPONDING HEAVY PRECIP AXIS. MODEL
RUNS HAVE BEEN ALTERNATING BETWEEN A SOUTHERN PLACEMENT...OVER
SOUTHERN OREGON AND A NORTHERN ONE...BETWEEN LANE AND LINN COUNTIES.
DEPENDING ON WHERE THIS FRONT STALLS AND HOW STRONG THE LOW
IS...THIS COULD MEAN ANYTHING FROM LOWLAND SNOW TO FLOODING RAINS.
REGARDLESS OF THE POSITION OF THE FRONT...NORTHWEST OREGON WILL SEE
MORE RAIN...AND POTENTIALLY VERY HEAVY RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS WELL AS ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY SNOW FOR THE
CASCADES. MUCH OF THE COAST RANGE FORECAST HINGES ON WHETHER THERE
IS OFFSHORE FLOW AND THUS LOWER SNOW LEVELS FOR SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATING SNOW...OR SOUTHWESTERLY ONSHORE AND HEAVY RAIN.
ONE THING THAT HAS NOT BEEN HIGHLIGHTED IS MORE SPECIFIC INFORMATION
ON THE POTENTIAL FOR EITHER HEAVY RAIN AND A PERIOD OF WET SNOW
IN THE VALLEY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WHILE ALL
OF THIS HINGES ON THE FRAGILE LOCATION OF THE STALLED OUT
FRONT...SEVERAL RUNS OF THE NAM...INCLUDING THE NEWEST 0Z...HAVE BEEN
HINTING THAT THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER OUR SOUTHERN CWA OR EVEN
FURTHER SOUTH. THIS WILL LEAVE AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF OUR AREA IN
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND AREAS TO THE NORTH IN COLD NORTHERLY FLOW. AS THE
UPPER JET MOVES OVERHEAD...EXPECT THE LOW TO MID LEVEL FRONT TO
STRENGTHEN AS THIS OCCURS.
MODEL SOUNDINGS ON THE 12-18Z NAM BUFR SUGGEST A PERIOD FROM 9Z -18Z
WEDS AS THE NEXT WAVE MOVES OVER THE FRONT WHERE THE LOWEST LEVELS
GO ISOTHERMAL...SUGGESTING WET SNOW. IF YOU BELIEVE THE CURRENT 0Z
NAM...EUGENE STAYS COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW ALL DAY WITH HEAVY PRECIP..
MOST MODELS DO KEEP SFC TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING. SNOW RATIOS WOULD BE
VERY LOW...BUT IT IS DURING THIS CRUCIAL TIME OF FRONTOGENESIS THAT
THE NAM/GFS/ECM ALL HAVE A GOOD DOSE OF QPF OVER THE AREA. WHILE THE
12/18Z NAM USING THE TOP DOWN METHODOLOGY COBB OUTPUT GIVES EUGENE
1" OF SNOW..IT ONLY ACCUMULATES SNOW WHEN IT HAS SNOW AS THE
DOMINANT P-TYPE...WHICH ONLY OCCURS FOR A SHORT TIME GIVEN THE ABOVE
FREEZING SFC TEMPS FORECAST. THE 0Z NAM IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
ACCUMULATIONS. AND...WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIP RATES AND AN
ISOTHERMAL PROFILE CAN EASILY ACCUMULATE SNOW IF HEAVY ENOUGH WITH
ABOVE FREEZING SFC TEMPS. ANYWAYS..AT THIS TIME THIS WOULD NOT BE
THE MOST LIKELY SOLUTION...BUT IT IS A VERY REASONABLE SOLUTION THAT
HINGES ON WHERE THE FRONT STALLS. AREAS FURTHER NORTH...INCLUDING
SALEM AND PORTLAND MAY SEE SOME SNOW MIXED IN BEING IN THE COLDER
AIR...BUT AT THIS TIME THE MODEL QPF IS STRONGER FURTHER SOUTH.
MEANWHILE WHAT SEEMS TO BE THE MORE LIKELY SOLUTION GIVEN THE TIME OF
YEAR ARE BASED ON THE THE GFS AND ECM...WHICH WHILE HAVING HEFTY
QPF...ARE WARMER...AS THE UPPER JET AND FRONT GET POSITIONED A BIT
FURTHER NORTH AND WEST...ALLOWING WARMER SOUTHERLY FLOW TO
RULE...MEANING A GOOD BOUT OF HEAVY RAINFALL...EVEN FOR PARTS THE
VALLEY. WHILE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE NOT OFF THE
CHARTS...0.75" OR SO...WHICH IS IN THE 75TH PERCENTILE...IN THE 1 TO
2 STANDARD DEVIATION RANGE OF NORMAL...LOCALIZED URBAN AND SMALL
STREAM FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE AS RAIN FALLS OVER THE SAME AREA WITH
THESE MODEL SOLUTIONS. WILL UPDATE THE ESF TO HIGHLIGHT THIS
POSSIBILITY. AT THIS TIME...THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY WOULD BE
FAVORED...BUT THIS CAN CHANGE QUICKLY.THIS MAKES A DETERMINISTIC
FORECAST FOR THESE AREAS NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE...WITH 6000 FT FREEZING
LEVELS AND HEAVY RAIN FOR EUGENE/SALEM OR VERY LOW SNOW LEVELS.
THERE WILL BE A STRONG GRADIENT SOMEWHERE. FOR NOW HAVE NOT MADE ANY
DRASTIC CHANGES AND HAVE CONTINUED WITH A COMPROMISE REFLECTED IN
THE ECMWF AND HAVE LEFT CURRENT GRIDS INTACT..BUT THIS WILL LIKELY
NEED REFINEMENT AS WE GET CLOSER. CURRENT QPF FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY SEEMS TO BE A COMPROMISE...AND HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN
ADDING ANY HEAVY RAIN PERIODS UNTIL A LITTLE LATER. WHAT IS
INTERESTING ON THE GFS SOLUTION IS IF PRECIP REMAINS HEAVY LONG
ENOUGH...WE COULD SEE A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WELL.
IF THIS TREND HOLDS...SNOW LEVELS WILL COME DOWN IN FUTURE FCSTS. KMD
.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...COMPARED WITH
THE RECENT PAST AND PRESENT...EXTENDED
PERIOD EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET. LATE IN THE WEEK...GFS AND
ECMWF AGREE ON THE UPPER TROUGH DIGGING S OFFSHORE. THIS SUGGESTS
LOWER POPS ARE IN ORDER...BUT WITH THE UPPER FLOW STILL OPEN TO
THE S FRI INTO SAT...WILL NEED TO KEEP SOME MENTION OF SHOWERS IN.
WITH LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW FRI...EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BEGIN ON THE
COOL SIDE WITH LOW SNOW LEVELS...BUT AS WARMER AIR MOVES UP FROM THE
S...WILL SEE A MODERATION OF TEMPS CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS BY
SAT. 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS BRINGS MOISTURE BACK N BY SUN...WHILE ECMWF
TENDING TOWARDS A DEEPER CUTOFF THAT DOES NOT OPEN UP UNTIL MON.
GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES...WILL TREND TOWARDS CLIMATOLOGY FROM SUN ON.
&&
.AVIATION....A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. MVFR
CIGS INCREASING ALONG THE COAST...AND HAVE JUST BEGUN TO PUSH
INLAND IN THE NORTH AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES. AFTER 05Z...S
WINDS WILL ALSO BE INCREASING ALONG THE COAST...THOUGH STRONGEST
WINDS NOT UNTIL AFTER 08Z AS WARM FRONT LIFTS INLAND ACROSS
REGION. BREEZY CONDITIONS ALSO EXPECTED INLAND AFTER 09Z...BUT NOT
AS STRONG AS THOSE ON COAST. EXPECT MVFR TO BE DOMINANT OVER AREAS
AFT 08Z...WITH OCCASIONAL IFR ALONG THE COAST. MTNS AND HIGHER
TERRAIN WILL BE OBSCURED IN CLOUDS AND PRECIP LATER TONIGHT WELL
INTO TUE AS THE OCCLUDED FRONT SLOWS AND NEARLY STALLS OVER THE
REGION. ROCKEY/BROWN
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...STILL EXPECTING
INCREASING MVFR BETWEEN 04Z AND 07Z...WITH STEADY RAIN DEVELOPING
ABOUT THAT TIME ALSO. MVFR WILL DOMINATE AFTER 08Z...WITH RAIN.
MVFR CONDITIONS IN STEADY RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST TUE
AFTERNOON. ROCKEY/BROWN
&&
.MARINE...CURRENT FORECAST FOR SOUTHERLY GALES TONIGHT STILL LOOKS
ON COURSE. WILL SEE STRONGEST WINDS ON THE WATERS BETWEEN 06Z
AND 10Z AS WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS REGION. HOWEVER...WARM FRONT
QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY THE COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL MOVE ONSHORE TUE
AM. THIS WILL ALLOW S WINDS TO TURN MORE W TO NW TUE AM. AS
GRADIENT RELAXES TUE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...WINDS GRADUALLY EASE.
REST OF WEEK LOOKS MORE TRANQUIL...WITH WINDS STAYING BELOW 20 KT.
SEAS WILL RISE AGAIN LATER TONIGHT AS WINDS INCREASE. STILL LOOKS
AS THOUGH COMBINED SEAS PEAK AT 15 TO 17 FT LATER TONIGHT...THEN
EASE OFF A BIT TUE AM. HOWEVER...EXPECTING FETCH OF W TO NW SWELL
TO ARRIVE TUE EVENING...PEAKING AT 19 TO 22 FT WED. HIGHEST SEAS
REMAIN TO OUR N. AFTERWARD...SEAS EASING BACK TO THE LOWER TO
MID TEENS FOR WED NIGHT AND THU.
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR CASCADES IN
LANE COUNTY-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES.
WA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR SOUTH
WASHINGTON CASCADES.
PZ...GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM
CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 7 PM
PDT TUESDAY.
&&
$$
MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEDFORD OR
900 AM PDT SUN MAR 18 2012
.SHORT TERM...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS SHIFTING EAST OVER THE AREA
TODAY. THIS IS BRINGING LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE AREA THIS MORNING.
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. VERY COLD AIR ALOFT
AROUND -33 TO -35 DEGREE C WILL BRING WEAK INSTABILITY TO EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. SHOWERS COMBINED WITH WEAK INSTABILITY MAY
ALLOW SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF THE
AREA EAST OF THE CASCADES. SO HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE FORECAST. ELSEWHERE EXPECTED A COLD SHOWERY
PATTERN. SOME MODERATE SHOWERS MAY HAVE GRAUPEL OR SMALL HAIL IN
THEM. SNOW LEVELS ARE DOWN TO 500 FEET THIS MORNING AND WILL
GRADUALLY RISE TO AROUND 1500 TO 2500 FEET THIS AFTERNOON.
MODELS SHOW SHOWERS DECREASING IN THE EVENING. THEN A WEAKENING
FRONT MOVES INTO THE COAST WHILE A RIDGE BUILDS OFFSHORE. THIS
FRONT WILL BRING ONLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION...WITH BEST CHANCES FOR
LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW ALONG THE COAST AND JUST INLAND THIS EVENING
INTO TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE HOW COLD
MONDAY MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL GET. THE CURRENT FORECAST CALLS
FOR LOW 30S NEAR THE COAST AND MID 20S TO LOW 30S INLAND ON THE
WEST SIDE TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS EAST OF THE CASCADES. THE
POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING CONDITIONS ON THE COAST MAY DEPEND ON THE
AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AS THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES TOWARDS
THE AREA TONIGHT. CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT FREEZING
CONDITIONS MAY BE LIMITED TO THE CURRY COAST AND SOME INLAND AREAS
OF COOS COUNTY.
MONDAY...A LOW TO THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING A WARM FRONT TOWARDS
THE COAST...THEN INLAND MONDAY NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TO 2500 TO 4000 FEET AHEAD OF THIS FRONT THEN TO 4000 TO
6000 FEET ON TUESDAY. AREAS OF MODERATE PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH THIS SYSTEM ESPECIALLY FROM THE
CASCADES WEST. THIS FRONT MAY ALSO BRING STRONG GUSTY WINDS TO THE
COASTAL WATERS AND COAST. INLAND AREAS WILL ALSO SEE GUSTY SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS. OVER THE SUMMER LAKE AREA...SOUTHWEST WINDS
MAY INCREASE WITH GUSTS TO 40 TO 50 MPH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
WET CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER STRONG FRONT
MOVES INTO THE AREA. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 4000
FEET...LOWERING WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION...MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY...AND CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE MVFR WEST OF THE CASCADES
WITH MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EAST OF THE CASCADES. OCCASIONAL RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS WILL DROP VISIBILITY LATER THIS MORNING FROM THE
CASCADES WESTWARD...AND THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD LAST THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 AM PDT SUN MAR 18 2012/
DISCUSSION...TWO MAIN FEATURES WILL AFFECT OUR WEATHER THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. FIRST...A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
SWING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...FURTHER COOLING THE AIR
MASS AND PRODUCING SNOW SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF SOUTHERN OREGON AND
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. NEXT...A POTENT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF WET WEATHER TO THE AREA FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
TODAY...AN ILL-DEFINED TROUGH FEATURE THAT IS FOLLOWING THE DEEP LOW
OVER THE GREAT BASIN IS REACHING THE OREGON COASTLINE. SOME
DEFORMATION BEHIND THE DOWNSTREAM LOW SEEMS TO BE EVIDENT ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND THIS COULD ENHANCE PRECIPITATION TODAY.
RADAR RETURNS ARE NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE RIGHT NOW BUT SNOW DOES SEEM
TO BE EXPANDING SOME...SO HAVE KEPT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR
AREAS WEST OF THE CASCADES...GENERALLY ABOVE 1500-2000 FEET.
NAM...GFS...AND THE HIGHER RESOLUTION HRRR HAVE CONSISTENTLY
INDICATED SHOWERS INCREASING IN COVERAGE TODAY...SO EXPECT 1 TO 3
INCHES IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TODAY. SEE THE WINTER WEATHER
PRODUCTS AT PDXWSWMFR FOR MORE DETAILS. SNOW IMPACTS WILL BE MUTED
IN THE LATE MORNING HOURS AS TEMPERATURES WARM SOME...MAKING IT
MORE DIFFICULT FOR ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS TO STICK TO ROADS.
SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MOSTLY OVER BY TONIGHT.
ADDITIONALLY...THE COQUILLE RIVER AT COQUILLE CONTINUES TO
FLOOD...AND SHOULD GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH TODAY.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND MONDAY
MORNING...WHICH WILL LIKELY BE THE COLDEST MORNING FOR THE NEXT WEEK
OR SO. GIVEN THE EXPECTED MEDIUM TO HIGH AMOUNT OF
CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO STAY IN THE UPPER 20S FOR WEST
SIDE VALLEYS. HOWEVER..THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW
MUCH BREAK IN CLOUDS THERE COULD BE AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER
SYSTEM ARRIVING MONDAY. ALSO...DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE IN THE MID 20S
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. THEREFORE...A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR PARTS OF JOSEPHINE...DOUGLAS...AND JACKSON COUNTIES.
ADDITIONALLY...A FROST ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED AGAIN FOR THE
COASTAL AREAS. SEE PDXNPWMFR FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE POTENTIAL
FOR FREEZE CONDITIONS.
THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA WILL BE ATTACHED TO A PARENT LOW
THAT DEEPENS OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA ON MONDAY. THIS WILL SET UP A
FETCH OF HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES THAT WILL OVERRUN A WARM
FRONT MONDAY NIGHT...AND GENERATE A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY OVER THE COAST RANGE. FROM MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY ABOUT 5 INCHES OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE TOWARD THE
CURRY COUNTY COAST WITH 3 INCHES NEAR THE COOS COUNTY COAST...AND 2
TO 3 INCHES OVER THE CASCADES. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE ABOVE 5000
FEET...ESPECIALLY PRIOR TO WEDNESDAY...AND THIS WILL CAUSE
RIVERS...CREEKS...AND STREAMS TO RISE AGAIN.
LATE NEXT WEEK MODELS SUGGEST SEVERAL POSSIBILITIES...ONE OF WHICH
INCLUDES A CUTOFF LOW MEANDERING SOUTH ALONG THE COAST. IN ANY
CASE...CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED IS LOW AND MINIMAL CHANGES WERE
MADE TO THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM PDT MONDAY FOR ORZ021-022.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PDT THIS MORNING ABOVE 1500
FEET FOR ORZ021-022.
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
ORZ023.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PDT THIS MORNING ABOVE 1500
FEET FOR ORZ023-025.
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
ORZ024.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PDT THIS MORNING ABOVE 1500
FEET FOR ORZ024.
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
ORZ026.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PDT THIS MORNING ABOVE 2000
FEET FOR ORZ026.
CA...NONE.
PZ...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
PZZ350-356-370-376.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 5 AM TO 2 PM PDT MONDAY FOR
PZZ350-356-370-376.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE MONDAY
NIGHT FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM PDT MONDAY
FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
$$
CC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEDFORD OR
315 AM PDT SUN MAR 18 2012
.DISCUSSION...TWO MAIN FEATURES WILL AFFECT OUR WEATHER THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. FIRST...A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
SWING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...FURTHER COOLING THE AIR
MASS AND PRODUCING SNOW SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF SOUTHERN OREGON AND
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. NEXT...A POTENT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF WET WEATHER TO THE AREA FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
TODAY...AN ILL-DEFINED TROUGH FEATURE THAT IS FOLLOWING THE DEEP LOW
OVER THE GREAT BASIN IS REACHING THE OREGON COASTLINE. SOME
DEFORMATION BEHIND THE DOWNSTREAM LOW SEEMS TO BE EVIDENT ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND THIS COULD ENHANCE PRECIPITATION TODAY.
RADAR RETURNS ARE NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE RIGHT NOW BUT SNOW DOES SEEM
TO BE EXPANDING SOME...SO HAVE KEPT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR
AREAS WEST OF THE CASCADES...GENERALLY ABOVE 1500-2000 FEET.
NAM...GFS...AND THE HIGHER RESOLUTION HRRR HAVE CONSISTENTLY
INDICATED SHOWERS INCREASING IN COVERAGE TODAY...SO EXPECT 1 TO 3
INCHES IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TODAY. SEE THE WINTER WEATHER
PRODUCTS AT PDXWSWMFR FOR MORE DETAILS. SNOW IMPACTS WILL BE MUTED
IN THE LATE MORNING HOURS AS TEMPERATURES WARM SOME...MAKING IT
MORE DIFFICULT FOR ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS TO STICK TO ROADS.
SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MOSTLY OVER BY TONIGHT.
ADDITIONALLY...THE COQUILLE RIVER AT COQUILLE CONTINUES TO
FLOOD...AND SHOULD GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH TODAY.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND MONDAY
MORNING...WHICH WILL LIKELY BE THE COLDEST MORNING FOR THE NEXT WEEK
OR SO. GIVEN THE EXPECTED MEDIUM TO HIGH AMOUNT OF
CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO STAY IN THE UPPER 20S FOR WEST
SIDE VALLEYS. HOWEVER..THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW
MUCH BREAK IN CLOUDS THERE COULD BE AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER
SYSTEM ARRIVING MONDAY. ALSO...DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE IN THE MID 20S
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. THEREFORE...A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR PARTS OF JOSEPHINE...DOUGLAS...AND JACKSON COUNTIES.
ADDITIONALLY...A FROST ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED AGAIN FOR THE
COASTAL AREAS. SEE PDXNPWMFR FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE POTENTIAL
FOR FREEZE CONDITIONS.
THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA WILL BE ATTACHED TO A PARENT LOW
THAT DEEPENS OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA ON MONDAY. THIS WILL SET UP A
FETCH OF HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES THAT WILL OVERRUN A WARM
FRONT MONDAY NIGHT...AND GENERATE A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY OVER THE COAST RANGE. FROM MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY ABOUT 5 INCHES OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE TOWARD THE
CURRY COUNTY COAST WITH 3 INCHES NEAR THE COOS COUNTY COAST...AND 2
TO 3 INCHES OVER THE CASCADES. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE ABOVE 5000
FEET...ESPECIALLY PRIOR TO WEDNESDAY...AND THIS WILL CAUSE
RIVERS...CREEKS...AND STREAMS TO RISE AGAIN.
LATE NEXT WEEK MODELS SUGGEST SEVERAL POSSIBILITIES...ONE OF WHICH
INCLUDES A CUTOFF LOW MEANDERING SOUTH ALONG THE COAST. IN ANY
CASE...CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED IS LOW AND MINIMAL CHANGES WERE
MADE TO THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY...AND CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE MVFR WEST OF THE CASCADES
WITH MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EAST OF THE CASCADES. OCCASIONAL RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS WILL DROP VISIBILITY LATER THIS MORNING FROM THE
CASCADES WESTWARD...AND THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD LAST THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON.
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR ORZ021-022.
FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM PDT MONDAY FOR ORZ021-022.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PDT THIS MORNING ABOVE 1500
FEET FOR ORZ021-022.
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
ORZ023.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PDT THIS MORNING ABOVE 1500
FEET FOR ORZ023-025.
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
ORZ024.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PDT THIS MORNING ABOVE 1500
FEET FOR ORZ024.
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
ORZ026.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PDT THIS MORNING ABOVE 2000
FEET FOR ORZ026.
CA...NONE.
PZ...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
PZZ350-356-370-376.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 5 AM TO 2 PM PDT MONDAY FOR
PZZ350-356-370-376.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE MONDAY
NIGHT FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM PDT MONDAY
FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 8 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR
PZZ376.
$$
SK/DW/BN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
933 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012
.DISCUSSION...
SHALLOW SHOWERS WERE STREAMING NORTHWARD ACROSS SE TX AT MID
EVENING. THE MAIN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS ALONG THE INTERSTATE
35 CORRIDOR. THE SHORT-RANGE MODELS DIFFERED ON THE TIMING OF THE
EVENTS...WITH THE NAM12 APPEARING TO BE TOO SLOW. THE 00Z RUC
LOOKED GOOD AND BROUGHT THE LINE INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES OF THE
FORECAST AREA AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. DO EXPECT THE MAIN
LINE OF STORMS TO SLOW ITS EASTWARD MOVEMENT GIVEN THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
THE MAIN ITEMS OF CONCERN INCLUDE THE WIND ADVISORY...CHANCES FOR
STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS...AND HEAVY RAINFALL. WITH THE STRONG LOW-
LEVEL JET OVERHEAD...THE WINDS ARE STILL MIXING DOWN ENOUGH TO
KEEP SOME SITES ABOVE 25 MPH AND WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY IN PLACE.
SOUNDINGS FROM KCRP...KLCH...AND A SPECIAL SOUNDING AT COLLEGE
STATION ALL INDICATED THAT THE CAP WAS STRONGEST OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES AT 00Z. THE COLLEGE STATION
SOUNDING SHOWED THE CAP PRETTY MUCH ERODED. THIS INFORMATION IN
ADDITION TO THE RUC FORECAST AND THE CURRENT EVOLUTION OF THE LIEN
OUT WEST INDICATES THAT THE WESTERN AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE CHANCES
FOR STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS BY 08Z. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL STILL
LOOKS ON TRACK ON TUESDAY GIVEN THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER EASTWARD
MOVEMENT OF THE ENTIRE SYSTEM.
WILL ISSUE AN UPDATE TO MODIFY THE TIMING OF EVENTS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF TONIGHT.
40
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 652 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012/
DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION.
AVIATION...
WATCHING THE ORGANIZED CONVECTION WEST OF SE TX AND TRYING TO TIME
THE LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE TAF SITES.
THE LINE SHOULD APPROACH CLL AROUND 10Z AND REACH THE COAST IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS TOMORROW. IT IS LIKELY TO SLOW DOWN DURING THE
MORNING HOURS ACROSS SE TX. MAY SEE ISOLATED TSTMS DEVELOP OUT
AHEAD OF THE LINE...BUT LEFT OUT OF TAFS DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. RETAINED
THE LLWS GROUP DUE TO THE THE STRENGTHENING LLJ WITH 50 KTS
EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT AT TO 2 TO 3 KFT. 33
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 65 70 54 67 49 / 80 90 50 30 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 71 76 57 68 51 / 40 90 50 40 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 72 76 60 68 61 / 30 90 60 50 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...BURLESON...CHAMBERS...
COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...GRIMES...HARRIS...
HOUSTON...JACKSON...LIBERTY...MADISON...MATAGORDA...
MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...WALKER...
WALLER...WASHINGTON...WHARTON.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 3 AM CDT TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...
BRAZOS...BURLESON...CHAMBERS...COLORADO...FORT BEND...
GALVESTON...GRIMES...HARRIS...HOUSTON...JACKSON...LIBERTY...
MADISON...MATAGORDA...MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...
TRINITY...WALKER...WALLER...WASHINGTON...WHARTON.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT
TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...33
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS LUBBOCK TX
1246 PM CDT SUN MAR 18 2012
.UPDATE...
LATEST MODEL RUNS STILL SHOW A TWO PRONGED SEVERE EVENT TO UNFOLD
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. SEVERAL MODEL SOLUTIONS MIX
THE DRYLINE TO THE CAPROCK EDGE OR EVEN FURTHER EAST THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THIS MAY BE OVERDONE BY THE MODELS. THE BASE
OF THE SURFACE TROUGH IS SHOWN TO BE WEST OF THE RATHER DIFFUSE
DEW POINT GRADIENT. STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS WEST OF THE
DRYLINE MAY ALSO LIMIT THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT THIS AFTERNOON. LOW
STRATUS WAS STILL HANGING ON OFF THE CAPROCK BUT MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS WERE MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST WHICH MAY
LIMIT MIXING AND THUS EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE DRYLINE. EVEN
THOUGH THE DEW POINT GRADIENT WILL NOT BE EXTREMELY SHARP...THE
STRONG WINDS ON EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY WILL LEAD TO STRONG
CONVERGENCE. MODELS DEPICT STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FIELDS
FROM INTERSTATE 27/US 87 EAST TO THE EDGE OF THE CAPROCK AND THEN
BACK SOUTHWEST INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN. BELIEVE THIS MAY BE THE
POINT OF INITIATION WITH THE LATEST HRRR RUNS SHOWING THIS
SCENARIO. LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL BE RATHER WEAK THIS AFTERNOON
UNTIL LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING WHEN THE TROUGH AND UPPER
LEVEL JET MAX APPROACHES THE REGION.
SEVERAL ATMOSPHERIC PARAMETERS ARE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE AND ROTATING STORMS. DAYTIME HEATING WILL
LEAD TO SURFACE INSTABILITIES OFF THE CAPROCK BETWEEN 2 AND 3
KJ/KG WITH THE CAP ERODING AROUND 21-23Z. THIS WILL BE UNDERNEATH
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AT 8 C/KM. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP
WILL HAVE A HIGH POTENTIAL TO ROTATE. MODELS PROG DEEP LAYER SHEAR
BETWEEN 40 AND 50KT. THERE WILL BE STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR AS WELL
WITH 0-1KM VECTORS BETWEEN 15 AND 20KT. MODEL HODOGRAPHS SHOW GOOD
LOW LEVEL TURNING WITH 0-3KM SRH VALUES GREATER THAN 250 M2/S2
OFF THE CAPROCK. THE TORNADO RISK WILL BE SLIGHTLY GREATER TODAY
THAN SEEN ON FRIDAY BECAUSE OF THIS LOW LEVEL SHEAR. HOWEVER...
LCLS WILL STILL BE RELATIVELY HIGH WITH VALUES BETWEEN 4 AND 5KFT.
THE PRIMARY THREAT THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE LARGE HAIL WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED TORNADOES. AS WE LOSE DAYTIME HEATING...INHIBITION WILL
TAKE OVER AND CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO WEAN BEFORE LATE TONIGHT
WHEN THE DRYLINE RETREATS AND LARGE SCALE LIFT SPREAD OVER THE
REGION. ANALOG GUIDANCE FOR SEVERAL DAYS HAS INDICATED SEVERAL
HISTORICAL CASES OF SEVERE WEATHER OCCURRENCES. JDV
&&
.AVIATION...
LOW STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT KCDS FOR THE NEXT HOUR UNTIL
MOVING EAST OF THE REGION. HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPILL INTO
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON HOWEVER THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT BOTH
TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TWO DEFINED THUNDERSTORM
EVENTS WILL OCCUR WITH THE FIRST BEING ISOLATED STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AT KCDS. THUNDERSTORM INITIATION IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR JUST EAST OF KLBB SO A CB WAS PLACED IN THE KLBB
TAF. THESE INITIAL STORMS WILL DISSIPATE LATER IN THE EVENING BUT
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN MORE OF A
LINEAR FEATURE AFFECTING BOTH TAF SITES MOSTLY AROUND AND AFTER
MIDNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION EARLY MONDAY
MORNING SHIFTING WINDS TO THE WEST.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 AM CDT SUN MAR 18 2012/
AVIATION...
MVFR CLOUD DECKS HAVE PERSISTED AT KLBB...HOWEVER THE LOW CLOUDS
APPEAR TO BE SOUTH OF KCDS HENCE KCDS METAR VOID OF CLOUD DECKS.
COULD SEE THE LOW CLOUDS NEAR/DEVELOP AT KCDS LATER THIS MORNING
AND THUS WILL ADD A MVFR MENTION. LATEST METARS ALSO DISPLAYED
FALLING VISIBILITIES ALBEIT VFR ATTM...THUS LOW VFR/MVFR FOG IS A
POSSIBILITY LATER THIS MORNING AND LASTING UNTIL AOA 15Z. RATHER
BREEZY TO LOW END WINDY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ENSUE LATE THIS
MORNING/EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A DRYLINE LINGERING ACROSS THE
REGION WILL PROMOTE CHANCES FOR -TSRA AT KCDS THIS
AFTERNOON...SPREADING TO KLBB BY THE EVENING AND LINGERING AT KCDS
THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. THUS...VISIBILITIES
MAY BRIEFLY BECOME RESTRICTED.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 AM CDT SUN MAR 18 2012/
SHORT TERM...
BROAD UA LOW ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS CONTINUED TO TRANSLATE ESE
ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA PER 08Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...THUS
SHARPENING THE SW FLOW ALOFT AND TRANSPORTING A PLUME OF HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION. LOOKING AT THE SFC..THE DRYLINE HAS
RETREATED WEST TO JUST PASS THE STATE LINE ACROSS EASTERN NEW
MEXICO...ALLOWING FOR DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND 60S ACROSS THE ENTIRE
SOUTH PLAINS TO ENSUE. RISING DEWPOINTS NEARING THE CURRENT LOWS
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR EARLY MORNING FOG ONCE AGAIN...ALTHOUGH A
SLIGHT TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION HAS RESULTED IN
WIND SPEEDS AOA 15 MPH. MODEL SOUNDINGS EXHIBITED MOISTENED LOW
LEVELS THROUGH 15Z...ALTHOUGH NOT QUITE AS MOISTENED AS PREVIOUS
MORNINGS. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SCT-BKN STRATUS DECKS MAY
CONTINUE TO FORM IN ADDITION TO THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT...ALBEIT DENSE FOG MAY NOT BE AS PREVALENT AS PREVIOUS
MORNINGS THANKS TO ADEQUATE SUSTAINABLE WIND SPEEDS. THE LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG IS EXPECTED TO SCOUR OUT/DISSIPATE AOA 15Z. LATEST RADAR
SIGNATURES DISPLAYED LIGHT ECHOES ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY/SE OF THE
FA LIKELY CAUSED BY A 70+ KT 250 MB JET MOVING ACROSS THE SAID AREA.
HAVE THEREFORE OPTED TO ADD MENTIONABLE POPS ACROSS SERN ZONES IN
CASE THE PRECIP ACTIVITY MOVES ACROSS THERE.
THIS AFTERNOON...THE AFOREMENTIONED UA SYSTEM WILL BE PROPAGATING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WHERE DOWNSTREAM A TIGHTENED PRESSURE
GRADIENT PROVIDED BY A SFC LEE TROUGH NORTH OF THE REGION...WILL
RESULT IN RATHER BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS. PROGGED MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOWED DEEP MIXING TO AOA 650 MB /MORE SO ON THE CAPROCK/...WHERE
WIND SPEEDS AT THE SAID LEVEL IS ANTICIPATED TO RANGE BETWEEN 35-45
KTS. THUS IT IS NO WONDER MOS GUIDANCE WIND SPEEDS ARE HINTING AT
WIND ADVISORY LEVEL WIND SPEEDS /27-31 KTS/ ESPECIALLY ON THE
CAPROCK...WITH SLIGHTLY LESSER SPEEDS OFF THE CAPROCK /20-26 KTS/.
HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND
SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AS ATMOSPHERIC WIND ANALYSIS CONFIRMS MOS
GUIDANCE WIND SPEED EXPECTATIONS. CONCURRENTLY...THE DRYLINE WILL
SHIFT EAST TO THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT /ALBEIT A BIT DIFFUSED/ WHICH
WILL ALLOW FOR THE FILTERING OF DRYER AIR ACROSS LOCALES WEST OF THE
DRYLINE. THUS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE CAPABLE OF FALLING
BELOW 15 PERCENT...AND THUS INCREASE THE FIRE DANGER. IT APPEARS THE
LOWEST RHS AND HIGHEST WIND SPEEDS WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS AND AS SUCH...WILL GO AHEAD AND
ISSUE A REDFLAG WARNING FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. FOR FURTHER
DETAILS REFER TO THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW. ALTHOUGH HEIGHT
FIELDS ARE FALLING...TEMPS WILL STILL BE UNSEASONABLY WARM /10-15
DEGREES ABOVE NORM/. WARM TEMPS COMBINED WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
DRYLINE WILL HELP TO BREAK THE CAPPING INVERSION BETWEEN 21Z-00Z.
BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING APPEARS TO BE ACROSS
EASTERN LOCALES...ALTHOUGH DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT SPATIAL
DISTRIBUTION OF THE DRYLINE...MENTIONABLE POPS IS VALID FOR PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL LOCALES. STEEPENING LAPSE RATES...PWATS OVER 1.00
INCH...SBCAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG...LOWERING LCL/S...35 KTS OF
0-6 KM BULK SHEAR AND SHEAR VECTORS PERPENDICULAR TO THE DRYLINE
SUGGESTS ORGANIZED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE CONVECTION WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF MODERATE RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS...HAIL AND
PERHAPS A BRIEF WINDOW FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WEST OF THE DRYLINE.
TONIGHT...THE BROAD UA LOW WILL NEAR EASTERN ARIZONA INDUCING HEIGHT
FIELDS TO CONTINUE TO FALL AND A BIT OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT TO
COMMENCE SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION. THE DRYLINE WILL RETREAT
WEST TO ACROSS THE CENTRAL ZONES AND THUS INDUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ALONG AND EAST OF THE DRYLINE..MORE SO AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SHEAR VECTORS BECOME MORE ALIGNED/PARALLEL TO THE DRYLINE
WHICH SUGGESTS LINEAR ORGANIZED STORMS/SQUALL LINE. HENCE...WITH
INCREASING SYNOPTIC LIFT AND PWATS BETWEEN 0.50-1.00 INCH...SUGGESTS
GUSTY WINDS...HAIL AND BRIEF MODERATE RAINFALL AS THE PRIMARY
THREATS.
LONG TERM...
MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE DIFFICULTY WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AS IT
MOVES ONTO THE PLAINS STATES TUESDAY...IN PARTICULAR WITH HOW DEEP
THE CLOSED LOW WILL BE THAT FORMS IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
FOLLOWED BY WITH WHAT SPEED IT WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE FCST AREA.
BEFORE THEN THE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ROCKIES MONDAY WITH
PRECIP FROM TONIGHTS MCS LIKELY EAST OF THE FCST AREA BY 12Z BUT
WILL HANG ONTO LINGERING LOW CHC POPS EAST IN CASE SLOWER NAM IS
THE CORRECT ONE. SHOULD THEN SEE WINDY SW LOW LEVEL FLOW AND DRY
AIR BUT COOLER TEMPS SWEEP ACROSS THE FCST AREA.
STILL WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME ELEVATED SHOWERS DEVELOP
WITH THE DEVELOPING CORE OF THE UPPER LOW AS IT FORMS OVER THE SRN
HIGH PLAINS IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. HOWEVER...SUB-CLOUD
MOISTURE WILL BE MEAGER AND CHANCE FOR ANYTHING MEASURABLE LOOKS
SLIM. WILL KEEP POPS BELOW MENTION ATTM. 00Z MODEL RUNS HAVE
TRENDED TO WRAPPING LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND THE LOW
TOWARDS NW TEXAS AND THE ERN PART OF THE FCST AREA WITH EACH OF
THE MAIN THREE MODELS GENERATING SOME QPF ON THE NORTH AND NW
FLANKS OF THE UPPER LOW. WILL NOT BITE ON THIS SOLUTION YET BUT
LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO CONTEMPLATE POPS INTO MIDWEEK IF MODELS
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THIS SOLUTION. REGARDLESS COOL NORTHERLY
FLOW BEHIND THE LOW WILL LEAD TO HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S THROUGH
AT LEAST WEDNESDAY BEFORE UPPER RIDGING LATE IN THE WEEK LEADS TO
WARMER TEMPS HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER...
THIS AFTERNOON A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NORTH OF THE SOUTH
PLAINS...WILL INDUCE A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION
AND THUS SSW 20-FOOT WIND SPEEDS TO BETWEEN 25-30 MPH ESPECIALLY ON
THE CAPROCK. FURTHERMORE...THE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO SLOSH EAST TO
NEAR THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT AND HENCE ALLOW THE FILTERING OF DRYER
AIR ACROSS LOCALES WEST OF THE DRYLINE. FORECAST MODELS DISPLAY
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO DROP TO BETWEEN 10-15 PERCENT ACROSS THE
WESTERN AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS. THUS...DRY
FUELS...RHS BELOW 15 PERCENT...TEMPS 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORM AND
WINDY CONDITIONS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA. WILL THEREFORE ISSUE A
REDFLAG WARNING VALID FROM 17Z-01Z. FURTHERMORE...STORMS COULD
DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND PERHAPS
AID TO ALLEVIATE FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS. HOWEVER...WILDFIRE STARTS CAUSED BY LIGHTNING
SHOULD BE TAKEN INTO CONSIDERATION.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 77 41 55 29 51 / 10 20 10 0 10
TULIA 79 47 59 34 55 / 20 50 20 10 10
PLAINVIEW 79 48 61 35 56 / 30 60 20 10 10
LEVELLAND 80 45 60 35 57 / 10 40 10 10 10
LUBBOCK 81 49 62 36 59 / 30 50 20 10 10
DENVER CITY 80 45 59 35 57 / 10 20 10 10 10
BROWNFIELD 81 47 61 36 58 / 20 40 10 10 10
CHILDRESS 80 54 72 42 66 / 50 70 20 10 10
SPUR 81 52 68 40 63 / 40 70 20 10 10
ASPERMONT 81 55 72 43 64 / 40 60 30 10 10
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ021>023-027>029-033>035-039>041.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ021>023-027-028-033-034-039-040.
&&
$$
01
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1254 AM EDT SUN MAR 18 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
THE CIRCULATION BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST AND LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE NATION WILL MAINTAIN A
WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND MID APPALACHIAN
REGION THROUGH NEXT WEEK. A SERIES OF WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES
WILL DRIFT EAST THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE PERIOD...RESULTING IN
SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
INTO AT LEAST MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1130 PM EDT SATURDAY...
NARROW BAND OF CONVECTION WORKING SLOWLY ENE FROM THE BLUE RIDGE
AROUND PEAKS OF OTTER...SOUTH INTO THE NC PIEDMONT. THE HRRR AND
LATEST NAM SHOWING THIS ACTIVITY STAYING AROUND FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS. WILL KEEP HIGHER POPS IN THE EAST...AS AIRMASS REMAINS
MOIST. WATCHING STRATUS DECK MOVING SLOWLY WEST INTO THE
TIDEWATER. CONFIDENCE IS LESSENING ON IT MAKING TOO FAR WEST...BUT
MODELS DO DEVELOP ANOTHER AREA OF CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE BLUE RIDGE
AFTER 3 AM.
THE SHOWERS ACROSS KY SHOULD STAY WEST OF US INTO DAWN...BEFORE
WORKING IN. KEPT DRIZZLE AND POSSIBLY FOG FROM THE BLUE RIDGE
INTO THE FOOTHILLS. A GOOD AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER IN MOST AREAS
COUPLING WITH A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD ENSURE THAT OVERNIGHT
LOWS ARE QUITE UNIFORM ACROSS THE AREA...MAINLY IN THE 50S...
WHICH IS CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGICAL HIGHS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
WEATHER ON SUNDAY LIKELY TO BE A REPEAT OF TODAY AS ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE TROF...NOW MOVING EAST OUT OF MISSOURI CRESTS THE FLAT UPPER
RIDGE AND MOVES TOWARD/INTO THE MID APPALACHIAN REGION. WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT...UPSLOPING ACROSS WESTERN FLANKS OF APPALACHIANS...
AND CONTINUED MODERATE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD SUPPORT
ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE
WEST...WITH LOWER THREAT EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE THE
COOLER/DRIER WEDGE ON WESTERN PERIPHERY OF SURFACE HIGH WILL
RESIDE. ONCE AGAIN...GOOD DEAL OF CLOUD COVER WILL CUT BACK ON
POTENTIAL INSOLATION...LIMITING AFTERNOON HIGHS TO THE UPPER 50S
TO MID 60S ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT.
METMOS AND LOCALLY DERIVED MOSMOS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SUPERIOR TO
MUCH WARMER MAVMOS IN THIS CURRENT AIR MASS...AND SEE NO NEED TO
DEVIATE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST IN MAINTAINING THE COOLER THERMAL
REFLECTION...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. AS A RESULT...
ONLY SUBTLE TWEAKS WERE MADE TO REFLECT LOCAL CLIMATOLOGICAL
BIASES BASED MAINLY ON TOPOGRAPHICAL INFLUENCES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 247 PM EDT SATURDAY...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SKIRT ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT. ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVES AND POSSIBLY REMNANTS OF AN
MCS WILL TRACK OVER AND EAST OF THE AREA. IF TIMING IS
CORRECT...SHOWERS WILL BE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE IN THE
EVENING...EXITING THE PIEDMONT BY MIDNIGHT. A WEAK SURFACE HIGH
WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE AREA WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STRETCHING
FROM THE GULF NORTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOIST
AND AFTERNOON HEATING MAY GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS ALONG AND EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE MONDAY AFTERNOON. MODEL AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS NOT
IMPRESSIVE...THEREFORE WILL KEEP POPS LOW AND CLOSE TO 20 PERCENT.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS IN
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND IS IN A FAVORABLE POSITION FOR AN INSITU
WEDGE TO DEVELOP. EASTERLY FLOW WILL BRING ATLANTIC MARINE AIR INTO
THE REGION DURING THE PERIOD. VERY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE MAY PLAGUE
THE EAST AND MORE SO ALONG EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE. CLOUDY
AND DAMP CONDITIONS WITH WEDGE IN PLACE WILL KEEP THE AREA ALONG AND
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE COOL FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK.
DOWNSLOPING FLOW AND OUTSIDE OF THE WEDGE MAY HELP BREAK CLOUDS
ALONG WESTERN SLOPES THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE MOUNTAINS EMPIRE AND
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA WILL BE THE DRIEST PART OF RNK CWA.
MEASURABLE RAINFALL LOOKS SPOTTY THEREFORE WILL KEEP POPS LOW WITH
THE HIGHEST PERCENTAGE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE.
MUGGY WITH TEMPERATURES 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY. TEMPERATURES
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY AS WE TRANSITION FROM CALENDAR WINTER IN
TO SPRING.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1224 PM EDT SATURDAY...
INSITU WEDGE AND EASTERLY FLOW MAY KEEP CLOUDY DAMP CONDITIONS ALONG
AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE POSSIBLE INTO
THURSDAY MORNING FOR THE EAST. LIKE IN THE SHORT TERM...MEASURABLE
RAINFALL SPOTTY...THEREFORE WILL KEEP POPS IN THE 20-30 PERCENT
RANGE AND MAINLY ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE.
THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK GOING INTO THE WEEKEND IS A COIN TOSS.
MODELS TRACKING A DEEP CYCLONE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
MID WEST. THE 00Z UKMET IS ON THE NORTH SIDE...THE 00Z CANADIAN ON
THE SOUTH SIDE...THE 00Z ECMWF/12Z GFS IS ON THE FAST SIDE...AND THE
00Z GFS ON THE SLOW SIDE OF THE OVERALL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
SPREAD. THIS LOW MAY END UP IN THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY...PUSHING
A RAIN BAND INTO THE REGION. THIS SHOULD BREAK THE WEDGE BUT BRING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE REGION. MODEL
PREDICTING THIS LOW TO BUMP HEADS WITH THE RIDGE ALONG THE EAST
COAST. HPC AND MYSELF AGREE MORE WITH THE SLOWER 00Z GFS THAN THE
OTHER MODELS. WILL KEEP LOW CONFIDENCE POPS DURING THE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURE WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL AND GENERALLY IN THE 70S INTO
THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1245 AM EDT SUNDAY...
BAND OF DIMINISHING SHOWERS CONTINUES TO PUSH NE TOWARD KLYH AND
EXPECT SOME SLIGHT VSBY REDUCTIONS AND POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS THERE
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. OTRW MOST OF THE AREA TERMINALS
REMAIN IN VFR ATTM BETWEEN INLAND MOVING STRATUS TO THE EAST AND
DEEPER MOISTURE WITH THE NEXT IMPULSE WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THIS
ALONG WITH SOME BREAKS SHOULD ALLOW FOR FOG FORMATION OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...AND THEN LOWERING CIGS...BUT LIKELY NOT UNTIL
NEAR DAYBREAK WHEN THE WEDGE STARTS TO DEVELOP OUT EAST AND THE
NEXT ROUND OF SHRA APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THUS LEANING TOWARD
DEVELOPING MVFR THRU ABOUT 09Z...THEN PERIODS OF SUB MVFR AT
TIMES AROUND 10Z-14Z IN FOG AND LOWER CIGS IN SPOTS
EASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP THE CLOUDS LINGERING LONGER OVER KBCB/KROA
AND POINTS EAST SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE WV
MTNS SCOURING OUT THE LOWER CIGS.
THE MVFR CIGS WILL RISE INTO LOW END VFR OUT EAST IN THE AFTN WITH
SOME THUNDER POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BUT MORESO ALONG AND
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE MORE HEATING AND INSTABILITY WILL
EXIST.
LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE MID APPALACHIAN AND MID ATLANTIC
REGION INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...WITH A BLOCKING HIGH OFFSHORE
AND LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST. A WARM MOIST AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OVER THE AREA...MAINTAINING A THREAT FOR OCCASIONAL MVFR
RESTRICTIONS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS...ALONG WITH A CONTINUED THREAT FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN SCATTERED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WERT
NEAR TERM...WERT/WP
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...JH/WERT/WP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
615 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
326 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012
THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM IS WITH THE RAIN/THUNDER CHANCES
THROUGH THE WEEK ALONG WITH HOW LONG THE RECORD BREAKING
TEMPERATURES CAN HANG ON FOR.
THE BROAD...DEEP AND STACKED TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
US HAS BEGUN TO EMERGE FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS AS IT
SPLITS INTO TWO SYSTEMS. THE NORTHERN STREAM CLOSED LOW IS CURRENTLY
LIFTING NORTH THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA WHILE THE SOUTHERN STREAM
TROUGH IS PROPAGATING EAST ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. STRONG
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS UP THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THIS LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES
TO ADVECT WARM...MOIST AIR UP FROM THE GULF. AS A RESULT OF ALL
THIS MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH...CLOUD COVER HAS FILLED IN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THOUGH THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW BREAKS HERE
AND THERE.
THE FIRST WAVE OF CONVECTION CAME THROUGH THIS MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON AND HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST WITH A SECOND BAND OF
CONVECTION OCCURRING ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA
AS THE RESULT OF A OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION
OUT WEST. THE NEXT WAVE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS
CENTRAL IOWA/MINNESOTA AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ASSOCIATED
WITH THE CLOSED LOW OVER MONTANA LIFTS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING THIS CLUSTER OF CONVECTION
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THIS AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR ANY
PRECIPITATION FALLING WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI. WITH TEMPERATURES
REACHING THE MID 70S AND DEW POINTS STILL IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S...SURFACE BASED CAPE HAS CLIMBED TO THE 500-1500 J/KG RANGE
WHICH WILL HELP FUEL THIS CONVECTION PUSHING NORTH INTO THE
REGION THIS EVENING. 0-6KM BULK WIND SHEAR STILL LOOKS WEAK AND
UNIDIRECTIONAL...BUT THERE IS SOME 0-3KM WIND SHEAR WITH SOUTHEAST
SURFACE WINDS VEERING TO THE 30-40KT LOW LEVEL JET. BY THE TIME
THIS CONVECTION REACHES THE REGION IT SHOULD BE DIMINISHING IN
INTENSITY WITH ANY CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS FURTHER TO THE WEST
ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR WHERE THE FORCING WILL BE
DEEPER DUE TO THE TROUGH. THE 19.12Z MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW THIS
BAND OF CONVECTION COMING ACROSS MINNESOTA AND IOWA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AND WEAKENING AS IT REACHES THE RIVER...WHICH SEEMS
PLAUSIBLE GIVEN THE NORTHWARD TRAJECTORY OF THE FORCING.
AS THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH PROPAGATES EAST ACROSS CENTRAL
CANADA TOWARD HUDSON BAY...IT WILL OCCLUDE THE SURFACE LOW OVER
CENTRAL MANITOBA WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS
MINNESOTA AND THE WESTERN FLANK OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY TUESDAY. THIS
FRONT WILL THEN STALL OUT ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN TO CENTRAL
IOWA AS A RESULT OF THE CUT OFF LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
HOLDING IT UP. THIS FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS OF ANY SHOWERS/STORMS
THROUGH MID WEEK WITH THE HIGHER CHANCES BEING ALONG THE NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN TO SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND CENTRAL IOWA CORRIDOR. WHILE
SOME THUNDER WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE...INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN
RATHER WEAK AT JUST A FEW HUNDRED J/KG...THOUGH PREVIOUS CAPE
FORECASTS FOR TODAY WERE MUCH LOWER DUE TO THE LOWER FORECAST
TEMPERATURES. CONFIDENCE IS STILL NOT VERY HIGH ON THE TIMING OF
WHEN THE BETTER CHANCES WILL BE AFTER TONIGHT GIVEN THE WEAK
FORCING AND BROAD AREA OF UNSTABLE AIR SOUTH OF THE FRONT. GOING
INTO THURSDAY...THE CUT OFF LOW IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL START
TO MEANDER NORTHWARD AND PROVIDE SOME BETTER LIFT FROM THE SOUTH.
TEMPERATURE-WISE...MUCH OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM
SECTOR THOUGH THE CORE OF THE WARMEST 850MB AIR WILL START GOING
EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES. STILL...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MID WEEK ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION WITH MORE
RECORDS LIKELY TO BE BROKEN THROUGH THURSDAY. SEE THE CLIMATE AFD
FOR FURTHER DETAILS ON THE RECORD BREAKING STRETCH.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
326 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012
FORECAST PROBLEM DURING THIS PERIOD IS THE CURRENT SWRN U.S. LOW AS
IT CLOSES OFF AND NEARLY CUTS OFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW...AND HOW IT
LIFTS EASTWARD DURING THE PERIOD. LATEST TREND IN THE GFS 19.06Z AND
19.12Z RUNS IS TO SHIFT THE LOW NE AND CLOSER TO THE GREAT LAKES FOR
A MORE SHOWERY SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THE 19.12Z GEM AND ECMWF LOW
TRACK TREND IS FURTHER SOUTH. THIS WOULD MEAN A DRIER WEEKEND AND
MORE LIKELY COOLER DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW. 19.12Z
GEM IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE COLD ADVECTION AS IT HAS A
STRONGER NRN SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS SRN CANADA SATURDAY...WITH
STRONG COLD ADVECTION INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES. 19.12Z 850 MB
TEMPERATURES DROP TO NEAR 0C IN THE GEM FOR SATURDAY...BUT THIS IS
THE OUTLIER. THE AREA WOULD LIKELY SEE 40S AND LOW 50S SATURDAY PER
THE GEM SOLUTION. THE 19.12Z ECMWF HAS A SIMILAR SHORTWAVE TRAVELING
ACROSS RN CANADA AND COLD AIR ADVECTION...BUT SLOWER/LESS
AGGRESSIVE/FURTHER EAST...WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO NEAR
6C SUNDAY. THE 19.12Z GFS IS EVEN FURTHER NE AND HAS NO COLD AIR
ADVECTION...AS IS THE 19.12Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN.
BOTTOM LINE IS THERE IS STILL A WIDE SPECTRUM OF OUTCOMES THIS
WEEKEND. HAVE GONE WITH THE CONSENSUS FORECAST FOR NOW...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOWER AND FEEL SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WEATHER WOULD TEND
TO GO COOLER THAN CURRENT FORECAST...AND WE MAY SEE MORE SHOWERS
WITH THE UNPREDICTABLE...WEAKLY FORCED LOW TRACK /IT COULD BE SLOWER
MOVING EAST/. WOULD THINK A GRADIENT IN TEMPERATURES WOULD BE
PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA AS THAT FRONT ALIGNS NW-SE BY SUNDAY AT THE
LATEST. STILL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...
615 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012
CLOUD/PCPN FORECAST WILL REMAIN A CHALLENGE OVER THEN NEXT FEW DAYS
AS THE UNSEASONABLY MOIST AIR MASS REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE
REGION...WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HOLDS JUST TO THE WEST.
MODELS GRADUALLY CUT THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF...BUT PICK
IT BACK UP IN TIME TO LIFT IT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FOR THE WEEKEND.
IN THE MEANTIME...BITS OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL KICK OUT OF THE
TROUGH...AND THESE PIECES HAVE BEEN DIFFICULT TO TIME AND PLACE.
CURRENT WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY DOES POINT TO A SHORTWAVE
LIFTING NORTH ACROSS MO EARLY EVENING. THIS SHOULD BE A FOCUS FOR
SHRA/TS DEVELOPMENT...IN ADDITION TO THE ONGOING NORTH-SOUTH RUNNING
CONVECTION ACROSS MN/IA. THIS CURRENT PCPN HAS A BETTER SHOT OF
MOVING THROUGH KRST FOR A BIT THIS EVENING...WITH THE SHORTWAVE
PROVIDING BETTER CHANCES FOR KLSE AS WELL AS KRST. THE HRRR IS DOING
THE BEST WITH THIS SHORTWAVE. INSTABILITY PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS IS
VERY SKINNY AND NOT VERY SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. SOME
LIGHTNING THOUGH. WHAT INSTABILITY THERE IS WANES LATER THIS
EVENING...AND SO SHOULD THE TS THREAT.
WINDS WILL STAY UP TONIGHT...BUT SLACKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ON TUE
SHOULD RESULT IN A LESS WINDY DAY. THERE COULD STILL BE SOME
AFTERNOON GUSTS...BUT MORE IN THE 20 MPH RANGE RATHER THAN 30 OF
RECENT DAYS.
OVERALL...FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW FOR CLOUDS/PCPN. SHORT
TERM TRENDS WILL LIKELY DRIVE THE FORECAST/REVISIONS FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.
&&
.CLIMATE...THIS WEEK
326 PM CDT MON MAR 18 2012
THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE AT ROCHESTER WAS ONCE AGAIN BROKEN
TODAY...BUT NOT YET AT LA CROSSE. CHECK RER STATEMENTS LATER TODAY
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION REGARDING ANY NEW RECORDS. ADDITIONAL
HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS LOOK POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...THOUGH IT WILL MAINLY DEPEND ON CLOUD COVER AND WHETHER ANY
RAIN SHOWERS OCCUR.
HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORDS WILL LIKELY BE BROKEN THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH FORECAST LOWS ONLY TO DROP INTO THE LOW 50S
WITH MANY OF THE RECORDS IN THE 40S.
FOR A LIST OF WHAT HAS OCCURRED REGARDING RECORDS THUS FAR AS
WELL AS THOSE THAT COULD FALL IN THE DAYS TO COME...PLEASE SEE THE
TOP NEWS STORY ON OUR WEBSITE ON THE UNSEASONABLY WARM MARCH.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
326 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HALBACH
LONG TERM....BAUMGARDT
AVIATION.....RIECK
CLIMATE......HALBACH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1235 PM CDT SUN MAR 18 2012
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
335 AM CDT SUN MAR 18 2012
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON THE UNPRECEDENTED WARMTH AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT.
CURRENTLY AS OF 07Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED DEEP TROUGHING ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE U.S. AND RIDGING
OVER THE REST OF THE U.S.. WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN THESE
TWO FEATURES THERE ARE VERY FEW SHORTWAVES OF NOTE. ONLY ONE THAT
REALLY SHOWS UP IS OVER NORTHEAST ILLINOIS WHICH HAS BEEN PRODUCING
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS AROUND IT AND ALMOST INTO NORTHWEST
ILLINOIS. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW EXISTS UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE WITH
850MB WINDS OF 30-50 KT FROM OKLAHOMA INTO THE FORECAST AREA PER
PROFILER AND RADAR VWP DATA. THIS FLOW HAS ALLOWED THE UNPRECEDENTED
WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS TO REMAIN IN PLACE. AT 00Z...SOUNDING SHOWED
850MB TEMPS BETWEEN 13-15C FROM OKLAHOMA CITY TO MINNEAPOLIS AND
GREEN BAY. THESE ARE 2.5-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
FORECAST AREA...THUS THE RECORD HIGHS YESTERDAY. THE 850MB DEWPOINTS
WERE 10-12C...REFLECTING THE MOISTURE AS WELL AS THE CUMULUS THAT
FORMED UNDER CAPPING SEEN ON SOUNDINGS. SO FAR CLOUDS HAVE BEEN
RESTRICTED TO SOME BKN CUMULUS AROUND 800MB...MAINLY WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER AROUND THE CAPPING INVERSION. TEMPERATURES ARE
STILL IN THE 60S...AIDED BY DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S AND A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SUPPORTING A SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY BREEZE.
SURFACE PRESSURE ANALYSIS SHOWED LOW PRESSURE IN EASTERN
MONTANA...WITH WARM FRONTS EXTENDING NORTHEAST INTO NORTHERN
ONTARIO...AS WELL AS EAST TO MINNEAPOLIS AND SOUTHEAST TO CHICAGO.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...TROUGHING ALONG THE WEST COAST IS PROGGED TO
MOVE OVER THE ROCKIES BY 12Z MONDAY...CAUSING A DEEPENING OF THE
SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN MONTANA. THIS DEEPENING IN TURN INCREASES
THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW...CAUSING RIDGING INITIALLY TO BUILD
OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...BUT THEN THIS RIDGING SHIFTS EAST
TONIGHT. WITHIN THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW THAT DEVELOPS TONIGHT
ALOFT....MODELS SHOW A SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO AREAS WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER BETWEEN 06-12Z. THIS SHORTWAVE APPARENTLY IS NEAR
THE BIG BEND REGION OF TEXAS. BOTH THE 18.00Z GFS AND 17.12Z ECMWF
BRING PRECIPITATION INTO LOCATIONS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER...WHILE THE 18.00Z REGIONAL CANADIAN IS WEST OF I-35 AND THE
18.00Z NAM HAS NOTHING. INTERESTINGLY...THOUGH...THE 305K SURFACE OF
THE 18.00Z NAM SUGGESTS ISENTROPIC LIFT SIMILAR TO THAT OF THE GFS.
PROBABLY THE ONLY DIFFERENCE IS SATURATION WHERE THE NAM IS SLOWER.
GIVEN THE INCREASING MOISTURE TRANSPORT TONIGHT...FEEL BETTER TO
LEAN TOWARDS THE GFS SCENARIO AND HAVE SOME PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. LATER FORECASTS WILL NEED TO
RE-EVALUATE PRECIPITATION COMING IN TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...DRY
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED UNDERNEATH STRONG CAPPING. SHOULD SEE THE
TYPICAL DIURNAL CUMULUS DEVELOP BELOW THE CAP. 850MB AND 925MB
READINGS ARE PROGGED TO BE PRETTY CLOSE TO THOSE SEEN AT 00Z LAST
EVENING...MAYBE JUST 1C COOLER AT MOST. THEREFORE ANTICIPATING HIGHS
SIMILAR TO THOSE YESTERDAY. FOR TONIGHT...A BLUSTERY SOUTH WIND AND
HIGH DEWPOINTS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES UP SIMILAR TO THOSE
CURRENTLY.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...INDICATIONS ARE THAT PERIODIC ROUNDS
OF PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR DURING THIS TIME FRAME...ALL IN RESPONSE
TO UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE ROCKIES SLOWLY ENCROACHING ON THE AREA.
IT DOES NOT APPEAR THE TROUGH WILL EVER FULLY GET HERE...THOUGH...AS
MODELS FORECAST IT TO SPLIT APART TUESDAY NIGHT OVER THE PLAINS. A
PERSISTENT STREAM OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...NOTED
BY PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HOVERING BETWEEN 1-1.4 INCHES THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...WILL STAY OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND PROVIDE FUEL
FOR PRECIPITATION. THIS MOISTURE INTERACTING WITH 500MB HEIGHT FALLS
OF 10-20 METERS PER 12 HOURS FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...SURGES OF
ISENTROPIC LIFT THROUGHOUT...AND EVEN LOW TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
COME TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT ALL SUPPORT THE PERIODIC ROUNDS OF
PRECIPITATION. BEST CHANCES START OFF MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WEST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...THEN SLOWLY PUSH EAST FOR TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING CLOSER. WITH STILL SOME
DIFFERENCES EXACTLY HOW THE PRECIPITATION ROUNDS WILL EVOLVE...
MAXIMUM CHANCES ARE HELD AROUND 70. HOWEVER...LATER FORECASTS SHOULD
BE ABLE TO FIND BOTH TIME PERIODS AND AREAS OF FOCUS TO RAISE
CHANCES FURTHER. CAPE IS PRESENT DURING THE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
TIME PERIOD...THOUGH GRADUALLY LOWERS OVER TIME IN RESPONSE TO LAPSE
RATES BECOMING MORE TOWARDS MOIST ADIABATIC AND INCREASING CLOUD
COVER. ON MONDAY...GENERALLY MUCAPE IS 500 J/KG OR LESS...THEN DROPS
TO 300 J/KG OR LESS FOR TUESDAY. DEFINITELY WARRANTS A THUNDER
MENTION BUT COVERAGE SHOULD PREDOMINATELY STAY SCATTERED. DAY 2
OUTLOOK PULLED THE SEVERE RISK OUT OF OUR AREA FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY
3...AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN LIMITED INSTABILITY AND 0-3/0-6
KM SHEAR LESS THAN 25 KTS. REGARDING TEMPERATURES...LOWS ARE A
LITTLE EASIER TO FORECAST THAN HIGHS...SINCE THE CLOUDS AND HIGH
DEWPOINTS WILL HELP TO HOLD READINGS UP. SHOULD SEE SOME COOLING FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT OVER THE DAKOTAS MOVES IN. HIGHS
COMPLETELY DEPEND ON HOW THE PRECIPITATION EXACTLY EVOLVES. 850MB
TEMPS STAY 10-12C ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SO IF ANY SUN OCCURS
TEMPERATURES COULD EASILY GET INTO THE 70S. FOR NOW KIND OF FOLLOWED
A BLEND OF GUIDANCE...WHICH PRODUCES WARMEST READINGS IN WISCONSIN
WHERE A LITTLE SUN IS MORE LIKELY.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
335 AM CDT SUN MAR 18 2012
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT EXISTS AMONGST THE 18.00Z ECMWF/GFS/CANADIAN
AND GFS ENSEMBLES REGARDING THE UPPER TROUGH SPLIT FROM TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH ALL OF THESE MODELS NOW HAVING AN UPPER LOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE POSITION OF THE
UPPER LOW HELPS TO MAINTAIN UPPER RIDGING OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THURSDAY. DESPITE THE UPPER RIDGING...CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE AS THE MOISTURE STREAM REFERENCED IN THE
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT DISCUSSION GETS STUCK OVER THE FORECAST
AREA. IN ADDITION...THERE APPEARS TO BE PERSISTENT LOW TO MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS ACTING ON THE MOISTURE STREAM.
BEYOND THURSDAY...THE FORECAST BECOMES A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAIN. SOME
OF THE TROUGHING THE MODELS SHOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON
WEDNESDAY IS FORECAST TO EJECT OUT. TWO SCENARIOS EXIST:
1. THE 18.00Z GFS/CANADIAN AND MAJORITY OF GFS ENSEMBLES ARE FASTER
IN THE EJECTION AND MORE SHEARED OUT...WHICH IN TURN ALLOWS THE
MODELS TO MAINTAIN UPPER RIDGING OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
SUNDAY. IF THIS SCENARIO PRESENTED PANS OUT...SOME PRECIPITATION
WOULD REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE MOISTURE STREAM SLOWLY
DRIES UP AND THE FRONTOGENESIS WEAKENS...THEN DRY WEATHER PREVAILS
THEREAFTER. MORE IMPORTANTLY...850MB TEMPS COOL TO NO LOWER THAN 8C.
2. THE 17.12Z AND 18.00Z ECMWF SUGGEST THE PORTION OF THE TROUGH IS
SLOWER AND MORE POTENT...EVENTUALLY DIGGING DOWN THROUGH ONTARIO ON
SATURDAY. THIS SCENARIO STILL KEEPS PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE THROUGH
FRIDAY AND DRY CONDITIONS THEREAFTER...BUT 850MB TEMPS END UP
FALLING TO 0 TO -4C ON SATURDAY...COLDEST NORTH OF I-94.
IT MAY TAKE A FEW DAYS TO FIGURE OUT WHAT WHICH SCENARIO IS MORE
LIKELY TO OCCUR. FOR WHAT IT IS WORTH...THE ECMWF APPEARS TO BE
TRENDED MORE TOWARDS THE GFS/CANADIAN CAMP. FOR NOW HAVE STUCK WITH
A MODEL CONSENSUS APPROACH FOR BOTH PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURE
FORECASTS WHICH...FOR TEMPERATURES...KEEPS THE ABOVE NORMAL
CONDITIONS GOING BUT DEFINITELY COOLER THAN WE HAVE BEEN DEALING
WITH RECENTLY. ALSO...THE CFS V2 MODEL ENSEMBLE WHICH HAS DONE
EXTREMELY WELL WITH THE RECENT WARM SPELL LEANS MORE TOWARDS THE
GFS/CANADIAN IDEA...THOUGH THE GFS IS A MEMBER OF THE CFS.
&&
.AVIATION...THIS AFTERNOON THRU MONDAY
1235 PM CDT SUN MAR 18 2012
WARM/MOIST SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE TAF SITES
THRU MON. MUCH LIKE SAT...WATCHING A RATHER EXTENSIVE STRATO-CUMULUS
DECK OVER MUCH OF IA/MN ADVECT NORTHEAST TOWARD THE FCST AREA AT
MID-DAY. DIURNAL WARMING/MIXING ERODING/RAISING THE CLOUD DECK CIGS
MUCH LIKE SAT AS WELL. CARRIED MAINLY SCT VFR CLOUDS AT KRST/KLSE
THRU THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT WITH ONLY A SMALL PERIOD BKN DECKS AT
KRST THIS AFTERNOON AS SOME OF THE THICKER CLOUDS/MOISTURE MOVES
THRU. DIURNAL WARMING/MIXING WITH MDT PRESSURE GRADIENT ALSO
PRODUCING SOUTH WINDS 12-18KTS G25KTS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
DECOUPLE TO 8-12KTS FOR TONIGHT/EARLY MON MORNING. AIRMASS REMAINS
MDT/STRONGLY CAPPED THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. CAP ERODES LATE TONIGHT
WITH DEEPER FORCING/LIFT AHEAD OF THE STRONG TROUGH MOVING OUT OF
THE ROCKIES SPREADING INTO THE AREA FOR MON. INTRODUCED VCSH AFTER
ABOUT 15Z MON ALONG WITH CIGS IN THE 3K-4K FT RANGE. INSTABILITY
QUESTIONABLE MON WITH THICKENING CLOUDS AND -SHRA EXPECTED TO SPREAD
IN DURING THE MORNING. LIMITED TSRA MENTION TO CB AT KRST FOR NOW AS
TSRA ON MON LOOKING TO BE ISOLATED TO SCT AND MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
&&
.CLIMATE...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY
335 AM CDT SUN MAR 18 2012
ANOTHER DAY OF RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH
TEMPERATURES LIKELY CLIMBING UP TO AROUND 80. ROCHESTER WHICH HAS A
REALLY COOL RECORD HIGH OF 60 COMPARED TO ALL OTHER SITES AROUND THE
REGION WILL BE SHATTERED. IN FACT...ROCHESTER HAS ALREADY SET THEIR
RECORD HIGH FOR TODAY WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 66 AT MIDNIGHT. RECORD
HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO BE BROKEN TONIGHT AND GIVEN
CURRENT READINGS...WE COULD BREAK THE ALL TIME MARCH HIGH MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES AGAIN AFTER BREAKING THEM YESTERDAY.
MORE RECORD HIGHS AND RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. RECORD HIGHS DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE
BEFORE PRECIPITATION MOVES IN.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
335 AM CDT SUN MAR 18 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...DAS
CLIMATE......AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
1233 PM CDT SUN MAR 18 2012
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY.
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW AN AMPLIFIED
PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA...CONSISTING OF A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE
WEST COAST AND STRONG RIDGING EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. A
SHORTWAVE IS ATTEMPTING TO UNDER-CUT THE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN
OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES...AND IS SENDING A CIRRUS
SHIELD INTO EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN. PRETTY QUIET UPSTREAM SO FAR
THIS MORNING. A CU FIELD HAS BEEN DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN MINNESOTA
AND IOWA ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK 850MB THETAE ADVECTION...BUT THE
ATMOSPHERE APPEARS CAPPED AT THE MOMENT. FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE
POP CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES.
TODAY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS ILLINOIS THIS MORNING WILL
MOVE EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES TODAY...AND SHOULD NOT
IMPACT THE AREA. OTHERWISE...WEAK 850MB THETAE ADVECTION WILL SHIFT
EAST OVER WISCONSIN THIS MORNING AND SHOULD BRING A CU FIELD
OVERHEAD. CROSSING MY FINGERS WILL NOT HAVE A REPEAT OF LAST
NIGHT...AS MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN STEEP THOUGH CAPPING WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING. INCREASING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS AND
700MB WARM ADVECTION WILL HELP A POTENT CAP BUILD BY LATE MORNING
ONWARD...WHICH WILL SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE ANY CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.
NO SIGN OF ANY MARINE FOG...SO WILL JUST KEEP A PATCHY WORDING IN
THE FORECAST. LOW LEVEL TEMPS ARE VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT THEY WERE
YESTERDAY. SO JUST BLENDED YESTERDAYS HIGHS WITH THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.
TONIGHT...VERY LITTLE CHANGES INTO TONIGHT. MID-LEVEL RIDGING MOVES
ON TO THE EAST...BUT LOOKS LIKE CAPPING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. WILL
START TO SEE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARRIVE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
LATE. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN OVER-DOING FOG POTENTIAL GREATLY
LATELY...AND WILL KEEP A MENTION OVER FAR NE WISCONSIN WHERE SURFACE
WINDS ARE PROJECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY MORE EASTERLY THAN THE SYNOPTIC
FLOW...AND COULD ADVECT MARINE AIR INLAND. LOWS MAINLY RANGING
THROUGH THE 50S.
MONDAY...HEIGHT FALLS START ARRIVING ALONG WITH A PRETTY GOOD INFLUX
OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROPICAL MOISTURE. PWATS WILL CREEP UP TO
1.5 INCHES WHILE THE CAP WILL BE ERODED OVER THE COURSE OF THE
MORNING. CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 60S
NORTH TO LOWER 70S SOUTH...AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH THOSE TEMPS
BY MIDDAY OR SO. WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE 70S...ML CAPES
WILL REACH AROUND 1000 J/KG WHILE CIN WILL BE ZERO. SEEMS LIKE A
GOOD RECIPE FOR PULSE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING WITH THE
HEAT OF THE DAY. 0-6KM SHEAR WILL ONLY BE IN THE 20-30 KT
RANGE...SO SHOULDNT SEE ANYTHING ORGANIZED...BUT WOULDNT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW STORMS FLIRT WITH NEAR WARNING
CRITERIA...MAINLY FOR HAIL. SE FLOW WILL HELP PROTECT THE DOOR AND
SOUTHERN MARINETTE COUNTY.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THRU SATURDAY. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES
ARE TEMPS...FOG POTENTIAL...AND PRECIP CHANCES.
MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE ON OVERALL PATTERN AS UPPER RIDGE SLIDES
TOWARD THE EASTERN SEABOARD EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND THE WESTERN U.S.
TROUGH CROSSES INTO THE PLAINS. UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL
ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.S. AND SOUTHERN CANADA MID-WEEK...AS CUT OFF
UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVES EAST INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS HIGHEST POPS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH-
CENTRAL WI MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...AS BEST FORCING
AND MOISTURE REMAIN SITUATED OVER EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI NEAR A
BAROCLINIC ZONE SAGGING INTO NW WI. EASTERN WI MAY VERY WELL STAY
DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IF CURRENT TIMING HOLDS...AS ONLY
A STRAY SHOWER/STORM WOULD BE POSSIBLE IN THE PERSISTENT SW FLOW.
AS UPPER LOW INCHES CLOSER MID-WEEK...DEEP MOISTURE ON THE
NORTHERN FRINGE OF IT WILL COMBINE WITH INCREASING LIFT FIRST FROM
AN UPPER JET...THEN FROM THE UPPER LOW ITSELF...TO KEEP HIGH
CHANCE POPS EAST AND LIKELY POPS WEST. NOT EXPECTING MUCH SUN
EITHER IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN. AS THE UPPER LOW
MOVES TOWARD THE EASTERN SEABOARD NEXT WEEKEND... WEAK RIDGING
SHOULD BUILDS ACROSS THE PLAINS...BRINGING DRY WEATHER BACK TO THE
REGION. THIS FAR NOT...NOT SURPRISING MODEL DIFFER ON THE DEGREE
OF AMPLIFICATION SO WILL NEED TO SEE HOW MODELS HANDLE THIS IN
LATER RUNS.
FOG POTENTIAL REMAINS ON LAKE MICHIGAN AS HIGH DEWPOINTS INTERACT
WITH THE COOLER WATERS. BASED ON THE PAST FEW DAYS/NIGHTS...NOT
MUCH FOG OVER THE BAY...AND ONLY PATCHY ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST WI.
DO NOT SEE MUCH CHANGE FOR MONDAY NIGHT...SO WILL CONTINUE TO JUST
MENTION PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE FAR NE AND BAY/LAKE. WILL LINGER
PATCHY FOG OVER LAKE MICHIGAN INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN INCREASING
WINDS AND PRECIP SHOULD REDUCE THE FOG THREAT.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED...WITH THE
WARMEST TEMPS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY...THEN CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL
KNOCK DOWN TEMPS FROM THE RECORD BREAKING READINGS. N/NE FLOW
WILL TAKE TEMPS DOWN SEVERAL MORE DEGREES FOR SATURDAY...BUT STILL
REMAINING 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. WITH A SLOWER ONSET OF PRECIP
ACROSS EASTERN WI ON TUESDAY...HAVE RAISED TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES
ACROSS EASTERN WI. AS 850MB TEMPS HOVER AROUND 12C...SOME SPOTS
COULD MAKE ANOTHER RUN AT 80 DEGREES IF WINDS REMAIN SOUTHERLY AND
WE CAN GET A LITTLE SUN TO HELP OUT.
&&
.AVIATION...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NXT 24
HOURS. DIURNAL CU FIELD THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH BY EVENING.
MID/HI LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING INTO NE WI AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURANCE MOVES INTO THE MIDWEST. THIS
DISTURBANCE IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE INTO/THRU WI ON MON AND BRING
A CHC OF SHWRS...ESPECIALLY BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ENUF
INSTABILITY TO BE PRESENT SUCH THAT AN ISOLATED TSTM IS PSBL...BUT
NOT ENUF COVERAGE TO WARRANT MENTIONING IN THE TAF SITES. IT IS
ALSO PSBL THAT VSBYS COULD BE REDUCED TO MVFR UNDER ANY TSTM THAT
DOES DEVELOP.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
630 AM CDT SUN MAR 18 2012
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
335 AM CDT SUN MAR 18 2012
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON THE UNPRECEDENTED WARMTH AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT.
CURRENTLY AS OF 07Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED DEEP TROUGHING ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE U.S. AND RIDGING
OVER THE REST OF THE U.S.. WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN THESE
TWO FEATURES THERE ARE VERY FEW SHORTWAVES OF NOTE. ONLY ONE THAT
REALLY SHOWS UP IS OVER NORTHEAST ILLINOIS WHICH HAS BEEN PRODUCING
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS AROUND IT AND ALMOST INTO NORTHWEST
ILLINOIS. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW EXISTS UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE WITH
850MB WINDS OF 30-50 KT FROM OKLAHOMA INTO THE FORECAST AREA PER
PROFILER AND RADAR VWP DATA. THIS FLOW HAS ALLOWED THE UNPRECEDENTED
WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS TO REMAIN IN PLACE. AT 00Z...SOUNDING SHOWED
850MB TEMPS BETWEEN 13-15C FROM OKLAHOMA CITY TO MINNEAPOLIS AND
GREEN BAY. THESE ARE 2.5-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
FORECAST AREA...THUS THE RECORD HIGHS YESTERDAY. THE 850MB DEWPOINTS
WERE 10-12C...REFLECTING THE MOISTURE AS WELL AS THE CUMULUS THAT
FORMED UNDER CAPPING SEEN ON SOUNDINGS. SO FAR CLOUDS HAVE BEEN
RESTRICTED TO SOME BKN CUMULUS AROUND 800MB...MAINLY WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER AROUND THE CAPPING INVERSION. TEMPERATURES ARE
STILL IN THE 60S...AIDED BY DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S AND A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SUPPORTING A SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY BREEZE.
SURFACE PRESSURE ANALYSIS SHOWED LOW PRESSURE IN EASTERN
MONTANA...WITH WARM FRONTS EXTENDING NORTHEAST INTO NORTHERN
ONTARIO...AS WELL AS EAST TO MINNEAPOLIS AND SOUTHEAST TO CHICAGO.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...TROUGHING ALONG THE WEST COAST IS PROGGED TO
MOVE OVER THE ROCKIES BY 12Z MONDAY...CAUSING A DEEPENING OF THE
SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN MONTANA. THIS DEEPENING IN TURN INCREASES
THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW...CAUSING RIDGING INITIALLY TO BUILD
OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...BUT THEN THIS RIDGING SHIFTS EAST
TONIGHT. WITHIN THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW THAT DEVELOPS TONIGHT
ALOFT....MODELS SHOW A SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO AREAS WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER BETWEEN 06-12Z. THIS SHORTWAVE APPARENTLY IS NEAR
THE BIG BEND REGION OF TEXAS. BOTH THE 18.00Z GFS AND 17.12Z ECMWF
BRING PRECIPITATION INTO LOCATIONS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER...WHILE THE 18.00Z REGIONAL CANADIAN IS WEST OF I-35 AND THE
18.00Z NAM HAS NOTHING. INTERESTINGLY...THOUGH...THE 305K SURFACE OF
THE 18.00Z NAM SUGGESTS ISENTROPIC LIFT SIMILAR TO THAT OF THE GFS.
PROBABLY THE ONLY DIFFERENCE IS SATURATION WHERE THE NAM IS SLOWER.
GIVEN THE INCREASING MOISTURE TRANSPORT TONIGHT...FEEL BETTER TO
LEAN TOWARDS THE GFS SCENARIO AND HAVE SOME PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. LATER FORECASTS WILL NEED TO
RE-EVALUATE PRECIPITATION COMING IN TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...DRY
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED UNDERNEATH STRONG CAPPING. SHOULD SEE THE
TYPICAL DIURNAL CUMULUS DEVELOP BELOW THE CAP. 850MB AND 925MB
READINGS ARE PROGGED TO BE PRETTY CLOSE TO THOSE SEEN AT 00Z LAST
EVENING...MAYBE JUST 1C COOLER AT MOST. THEREFORE ANTICIPATING HIGHS
SIMILAR TO THOSE YESTERDAY. FOR TONIGHT...A BLUSTERY SOUTH WIND AND
HIGH DEWPOINTS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES UP SIMILAR TO THOSE
CURRENTLY.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...INDICATIONS ARE THAT PERIODIC ROUNDS
OF PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR DURING THIS TIME FRAME...ALL IN RESPONSE
TO UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE ROCKIES SLOWLY ENCROACHING ON THE AREA.
IT DOES NOT APPEAR THE TROUGH WILL EVER FULLY GET HERE...THOUGH...AS
MODELS FORECAST IT TO SPLIT APART TUESDAY NIGHT OVER THE PLAINS. A
PERSISTENT STREAM OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...NOTED
BY PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HOVERING BETWEEN 1-1.4 INCHES THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...WILL STAY OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND PROVIDE FUEL
FOR PRECIPITATION. THIS MOISTURE INTERACTING WITH 500MB HEIGHT FALLS
OF 10-20 METERS PER 12 HOURS FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...SURGES OF
ISENTROPIC LIFT THROUGHOUT...AND EVEN LOW TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
COME TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT ALL SUPPORT THE PERIODIC ROUNDS OF
PRECIPITATION. BEST CHANCES START OFF MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WEST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...THEN SLOWLY PUSH EAST FOR TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING CLOSER. WITH STILL SOME
DIFFERENCES EXACTLY HOW THE PRECIPITATION ROUNDS WILL EVOLVE...
MAXIMUM CHANCES ARE HELD AROUND 70. HOWEVER...LATER FORECASTS SHOULD
BE ABLE TO FIND BOTH TIME PERIODS AND AREAS OF FOCUS TO RAISE
CHANCES FURTHER. CAPE IS PRESENT DURING THE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
TIME PERIOD...THOUGH GRADUALLY LOWERS OVER TIME IN RESPONSE TO LAPSE
RATES BECOMING MORE TOWARDS MOIST ADIABATIC AND INCREASING CLOUD
COVER. ON MONDAY...GENERALLY MUCAPE IS 500 J/KG OR LESS...THEN DROPS
TO 300 J/KG OR LESS FOR TUESDAY. DEFINITELY WARRANTS A THUNDER
MENTION BUT COVERAGE SHOULD PREDOMINATELY STAY SCATTERED. DAY 2
OUTLOOK PULLED THE SEVERE RISK OUT OF OUR AREA FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY
3...AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN LIMITED INSTABILITY AND 0-3/0-6
KM SHEAR LESS THAN 25 KTS. REGARDING TEMPERATURES...LOWS ARE A
LITTLE EASIER TO FORECAST THAN HIGHS...SINCE THE CLOUDS AND HIGH
DEWPOINTS WILL HELP TO HOLD READINGS UP. SHOULD SEE SOME COOLING FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT OVER THE DAKOTAS MOVES IN. HIGHS
COMPLETELY DEPEND ON HOW THE PRECIPITATION EXACTLY EVOLVES. 850MB
TEMPS STAY 10-12C ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SO IF ANY SUN OCCURS
TEMPERATURES COULD EASILY GET INTO THE 70S. FOR NOW KIND OF FOLLOWED
A BLEND OF GUIDANCE...WHICH PRODUCES WARMEST READINGS IN WISCONSIN
WHERE A LITTLE SUN IS MORE LIKELY.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
335 AM CDT SUN MAR 18 2012
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT EXISTS AMONGST THE 18.00Z ECMWF/GFS/CANADIAN
AND GFS ENSEMBLES REGARDING THE UPPER TROUGH SPLIT FROM TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH ALL OF THESE MODELS NOW HAVING AN UPPER LOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE POSITION OF THE
UPPER LOW HELPS TO MAINTAIN UPPER RIDGING OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THURSDAY. DESPITE THE UPPER RIDGING...CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE AS THE MOISTURE STREAM REFERENCED IN THE
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT DISCUSSION GETS STUCK OVER THE FORECAST
AREA. IN ADDITION...THERE APPEARS TO BE PERSISTENT LOW TO MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS ACTING ON THE MOISTURE STREAM.
BEYOND THURSDAY...THE FORECAST BECOMES A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAIN. SOME
OF THE TROUGHING THE MODELS SHOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON
WEDNESDAY IS FORECAST TO EJECT OUT. TWO SCENARIOS EXIST:
1. THE 18.00Z GFS/CANADIAN AND MAJORITY OF GFS ENSEMBLES ARE FASTER
IN THE EJECTION AND MORE SHEARED OUT...WHICH IN TURN ALLOWS THE
MODELS TO MAINTAIN UPPER RIDGING OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
SUNDAY. IF THIS SCENARIO PRESENTED PANS OUT...SOME PRECIPITATION
WOULD REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE MOISTURE STREAM SLOWLY
DRIES UP AND THE FRONTOGENESIS WEAKENS...THEN DRY WEATHER PREVAILS
THEREAFTER. MORE IMPORTANTLY...850MB TEMPS COOL TO NO LOWER THAN 8C.
2. THE 17.12Z AND 18.00Z ECMWF SUGGEST THE PORTION OF THE TROUGH IS
SLOWER AND MORE POTENT...EVENTUALLY DIGGING DOWN THROUGH ONTARIO ON
SATURDAY. THIS SCENARIO STILL KEEPS PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE THROUGH
FRIDAY AND DRY CONDITIONS THEREAFTER...BUT 850MB TEMPS END UP
FALLING TO 0 TO -4C ON SATURDAY...COLDEST NORTH OF I-94.
IT MAY TAKE A FEW DAYS TO FIGURE OUT WHAT WHICH SCENARIO IS MORE
LIKELY TO OCCUR. FOR WHAT IT IS WORTH...THE ECMWF APPEARS TO BE
TRENDED MORE TOWARDS THE GFS/CANADIAN CAMP. FOR NOW HAVE STUCK WITH
A MODEL CONSENSUS APPROACH FOR BOTH PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURE
FORECASTS WHICH...FOR TEMPERATURES...KEEPS THE ABOVE NORMAL
CONDITIONS GOING BUT DEFINITELY COOLER THAN WE HAVE BEEN DEALING
WITH RECENTLY. ALSO...THE CFS V2 MODEL ENSEMBLE WHICH HAS DONE
EXTREMELY WELL WITH THE RECENT WARM SPELL LEANS MORE TOWARDS THE
GFS/CANADIAN IDEA...THOUGH THE GFS IS A MEMBER OF THE CFS.
&&
.AVIATION...TODAY AND TONIGHT
628 AM CDT SUN MAR 18 2012
CURRENTLY MONITORING FIELD OF VFR STRATOCUMULUS AFFECTING
KRST/KLSE TAF SITES THIS MORNING. THIS CLOUD IS A RESULT OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT RIDING UP INTO THE REGION VIA THE LOW-LEVEL
JET. RUC MODEL BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWING THIS STRATOCUMULUS
BREAKING UP/SCATTERING OUT AT KRST AROUND 14Z THIS MORNING AND 15Z
AT KLSE AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXES. MAY SEE OCCASIONAL CIGS
AROUND 4KFT AT KRST THIS AFTERNOON CLOSER TO FETCH OF BETTER
MOISTURE ACROSS THE PLAINS. OTHERWISE...FAIRLY STRONG SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH GUSTS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30-35KT
RANGE. LOOK FOR THE WINDS TO SUBSIDE AROUND SUNSET. STRATOCUMULUS
EXPECTED TO BECOME BROKEN AGAIN ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE KRST
TAF SITE THIS EVENING AS BETTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT KICKS IN IN
ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT OVER THE PLAINS. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN VFR. LOOKING INTO MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL BE ADVANCING
TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE PLAINS AND WILL SPREAD CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE AREA.
&&
.CLIMATE...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY
335 AM CDT SUN MAR 18 2012
ANOTHER DAY OF RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH
TEMPERATURES LIKELY CLIMBING UP TO AROUND 80. ROCHESTER WHICH HAS A
REALLY COOL RECORD HIGH OF 60 COMPARED TO ALL OTHER SITES AROUND THE
REGION WILL BE SHATTERED. IN FACT...ROCHESTER HAS ALREADY SET THEIR
RECORD HIGH FOR TODAY WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 66 AT MIDNIGHT. RECORD
HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO BE BROKEN TONIGHT AND GIVEN
CURRENT READINGS...WE COULD BREAK THE ALL TIME MARCH HIGH MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES AGAIN AFTER BREAKING THEM YESTERDAY.
MORE RECORD HIGHS AND RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. RECORD HIGHS DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE
BEFORE PRECIPITATION MOVES IN.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
335 AM CDT SUN MAR 18 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...DAS
CLIMATE......AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
612 AM CDT SUN MAR 18 2012
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY.
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW AN AMPLIFIED
PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA...CONSISTING OF A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE
WEST COAST AND STRONG RIDGING EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. A
SHORTWAVE IS ATTEMPTING TO UNDER-CUT THE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN
OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES...AND IS SENDING A CIRRUS
SHIELD INTO EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN. PRETTY QUIET UPSTREAM SO FAR
THIS MORNING. A CU FIELD HAS BEEN DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN MINNESOTA
AND IOWA ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK 850MB THETAE ADVECTION...BUT THE
ATMOSPHERE APPEARS CAPPED AT THE MOMENT. FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE
POP CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES.
TODAY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS ILLINOIS THIS MORNING WILL
MOVE EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES TODAY...AND SHOULD NOT
IMPACT THE AREA. OTHERWISE...WEAK 850MB THETAE ADVECTION WILL SHIFT
EAST OVER WISCONSIN THIS MORNING AND SHOULD BRING A CU FIELD
OVERHEAD. CROSSING MY FINGERS WILL NOT HAVE A REPEAT OF LAST
NIGHT...AS MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN STEEP THOUGH CAPPING WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING. INCREASING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS AND
700MB WARM ADVECTION WILL HELP A POTENT CAP BUILD BY LATE MORNING
ONWARD...WHICH WILL SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE ANY CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.
NO SIGN OF ANY MARINE FOG...SO WILL JUST KEEP A PATCHY WORDING IN
THE FORECAST. LOW LEVEL TEMPS ARE VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT THEY WERE
YESTERDAY. SO JUST BLENDED YESTERDAYS HIGHS WITH THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.
TONIGHT...VERY LITTLE CHANGES INTO TONIGHT. MID-LEVEL RIDGING MOVES
ON TO THE EAST...BUT LOOKS LIKE CAPPING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. WILL
START TO SEE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARRIVE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
LATE. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN OVER-DOING FOG POTENTIAL GREATLY
LATELY...AND WILL KEEP A MENTION OVER FAR NE WISCONSIN WHERE SURFACE
WINDS ARE PROJECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY MORE EASTERLY THAN THE SYNOPTIC
FLOW...AND COULD ADVECT MARINE AIR INLAND. LOWS MAINLY RANGING
THROUGH THE 50S.
MONDAY...HEIGHT FALLS START ARRIVING ALONG WITH A PRETTY GOOD INFLUX
OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROPICAL MOISTURE. PWATS WILL CREEP UP TO
1.5 INCHES WHILE THE CAP WILL BE ERODED OVER THE COURSE OF THE
MORNING. CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 60S
NORTH TO LOWER 70S SOUTH...AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH THOSE TEMPS
BY MIDDAY OR SO. WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE 70S...ML CAPES
WILL REACH AROUND 1000 J/KG WHILE CIN WILL BE ZERO. SEEMS LIKE A
GOOD RECIPE FOR PULSE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING WITH THE
HEAT OF THE DAY. 0-6KM SHEAR WILL ONLY BE IN THE 20-30 KT
RANGE...SO SHOULDNT SEE ANYTHING ORGANIZED...BUT WOULDNT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW STORMS FLIRT WITH NEAR WARNING
CRITERIA...MAINLY FOR HAIL. SE FLOW WILL HELP PROTECT THE DOOR AND
SOUTHERN MARINETTE COUNTY.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THRU SATURDAY. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES
ARE TEMPS...FOG POTENTIAL...AND PRECIP CHANCES.
MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE ON OVERALL PATTERN AS UPPER RIDGE SLIDES
TOWARD THE EASTERN SEABOARD EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND THE WESTERN U.S.
TROUGH CROSSES INTO THE PLAINS. UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL
ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.S. AND SOUTHERN CANADA MID-WEEK...AS CUT OFF
UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVES EAST INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS HIGHEST POPS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH-
CENTRAL WI MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...AS BEST FORCING
AND MOISTURE REMAIN SITUATED OVER EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI NEAR A
BAROCLINIC ZONE SAGGING INTO NW WI. EASTERN WI MAY VERY WELL STAY
DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IF CURRENT TIMING HOLDS...AS ONLY
A STRAY SHOWER/STORM WOULD BE POSSIBLE IN THE PERSISTENT SW FLOW.
AS UPPER LOW INCHES CLOSER MID-WEEK...DEEP MOISTURE ON THE
NORTHERN FRINGE OF IT WILL COMBINE WITH INCREASING LIFT FIRST FROM
AN UPPER JET...THEN FROM THE UPPER LOW ITSELF...TO KEEP HIGH
CHANCE POPS EAST AND LIKELY POPS WEST. NOT EXPECTING MUCH SUN
EITHER IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN. AS THE UPPER LOW
MOVES TOWARD THE EASTERN SEABOARD NEXT WEEKEND... WEAK RIDGING
SHOULD BUILDS ACROSS THE PLAINS...BRINGING DRY WEATHER BACK TO THE
REGION. THIS FAR NOT...NOT SURPRISING MODEL DIFFER ON THE DEGREE
OF AMPLIFICATION SO WILL NEED TO SEE HOW MODELS HANDLE THIS IN
LATER RUNS.
FOG POTENTIAL REMAINS ON LAKE MICHIGAN AS HIGH DEWPOINTS INTERACT
WITH THE COOLER WATERS. BASED ON THE PAST FEW DAYS/NIGHTS...NOT
MUCH FOG OVER THE BAY...AND ONLY PATCHY ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST WI.
DO NOT SEE MUCH CHANGE FOR MONDAY NIGHT...SO WILL CONTINUE TO JUST
MENTION PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE FAR NE AND BAY/LAKE. WILL LINGER
PATCHY FOG OVER LAKE MICHIGAN INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN INCREASING
WINDS AND PRECIP SHOULD REDUCE THE FOG THREAT.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED...WITH THE
WARMEST TEMPS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY...THEN CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL
KNOCK DOWN TEMPS FROM THE RECORD BREAKING READINGS. N/NE FLOW
WILL TAKE TEMPS DOWN SEVERAL MORE DEGREES FOR SATURDAY...BUT STILL
REMAINING 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. WITH A SLOWER ONSET OF PRECIP
ACROSS EASTERN WI ON TUESDAY...HAVE RAISED TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES
ACROSS EASTERN WI. AS 850MB TEMPS HOVER AROUND 12C...SOME SPOTS
COULD MAKE ANOTHER RUN AT 80 DEGREES IF WINDS REMAIN SOUTHERLY AND
WE CAN GET A LITTLE SUN TO HELP OUT.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
DIURNAL CU FIELD EXPECTED TO BLOSSOM BY MIDDAY AND DIMINISH BY
SUNSET. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT...BUT
PRECIP CHANCES WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER MONDAY MORNING.
MPC
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS LA CROSSE WI
335 AM CDT SUN MAR 18 2012
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
335 AM CDT SUN MAR 18 2012
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON THE UNPRECEDENTED WARMTH AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT.
CURRENTLY AS OF 07Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED DEEP TROUGHING ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE U.S. AND RIDGING
OVER THE REST OF THE U.S.. WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN THESE
TWO FEATURES THERE ARE VERY FEW SHORTWAVES OF NOTE. ONLY ONE THAT
REALLY SHOWS UP IS OVER NORTHEAST ILLINOIS WHICH HAS BEEN PRODUCING
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS AROUND IT AND ALMOST INTO NORTHWEST
ILLINOIS. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW EXISTS UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE WITH
850MB WINDS OF 30-50 KT FROM OKLAHOMA INTO THE FORECAST AREA PER
PROFILER AND RADAR VWP DATA. THIS FLOW HAS ALLOWED THE UNPRECEDENTED
WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS TO REMAIN IN PLACE. AT 00Z...SOUNDING SHOWED
850MB TEMPS BETWEEN 13-15C FROM OKLAHOMA CITY TO MINNEAPOLIS AND
GREEN BAY. THESE ARE 2.5-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
FORECAST AREA...THUS THE RECORD HIGHS YESTERDAY. THE 850MB DEWPOINTS
WERE 10-12C...REFLECTING THE MOISTURE AS WELL AS THE CUMULUS THAT
FORMED UNDER CAPPING SEEN ON SOUNDINGS. SO FAR CLOUDS HAVE BEEN
RESTRICTED TO SOME BKN CUMULUS AROUND 800MB...MAINLY WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER AROUND THE CAPPING INVERSION. TEMPERATURES ARE
STILL IN THE 60S...AIDED BY DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S AND A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SUPPORTING A SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY BREEZE.
SURFACE PRESSURE ANALYSIS SHOWED LOW PRESSURE IN EASTERN
MONTANA...WITH WARM FRONTS EXTENDING NORTHEAST INTO NORTHERN
ONTARIO...AS WELL AS EAST TO MINNEAPOLIS AND SOUTHEAST TO CHICAGO.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...TROUGHING ALONG THE WEST COAST IS PROGGED TO
MOVE OVER THE ROCKIES BY 12Z MONDAY...CAUSING A DEEPENING OF THE
SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN MONTANA. THIS DEEPENING IN TURN INCREASES
THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW...CAUSING RIDGING INITIALLY TO BUILD
OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...BUT THEN THIS RIDGING SHIFTS EAST
TONIGHT. WITHIN THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW THAT DEVELOPS TONIGHT
ALOFT....MODELS SHOW A SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO AREAS WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER BETWEEN 06-12Z. THIS SHORTWAVE APPARENTLY IS NEAR
THE BIG BEND REGION OF TEXAS. BOTH THE 18.00Z GFS AND 17.12Z ECMWF
BRING PRECIPITATION INTO LOCATIONS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER...WHILE THE 18.00Z REGIONAL CANADIAN IS WEST OF I-35 AND THE
18.00Z NAM HAS NOTHING. INTERESTINGLY...THOUGH...THE 305K SURFACE OF
THE 18.00Z NAM SUGGESTS ISENTROPIC LIFT SIMILAR TO THAT OF THE GFS.
PROBABLY THE ONLY DIFFERENCE IS SATURATION WHERE THE NAM IS SLOWER.
GIVEN THE INCREASING MOISTURE TRANSPORT TONIGHT...FEEL BETTER TO
LEAN TOWARDS THE GFS SCENARIO AND HAVE SOME PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. LATER FORECASTS WILL NEED TO
RE-EVALUATE PRECIPITATION COMING IN TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...DRY
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED UNDERNEATH STRONG CAPPING. SHOULD SEE THE
TYPICAL DIURNAL CUMULUS DEVELOP BELOW THE CAP. 850MB AND 925MB
READINGS ARE PROGGED TO BE PRETTY CLOSE TO THOSE SEEN AT 00Z LAST
EVENING...MAYBE JUST 1C COOLER AT MOST. THEREFORE ANTICIPATING HIGHS
SIMILAR TO THOSE YESTERDAY. FOR TONIGHT...A BLUSTERY SOUTH WIND AND
HIGH DEWPOINTS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES UP SIMILAR TO THOSE
CURRENTLY.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...INDICATIONS ARE THAT PERIODIC ROUNDS
OF PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR DURING THIS TIME FRAME...ALL IN RESPONSE
TO UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE ROCKIES SLOWLY ENCROACHING ON THE AREA.
IT DOES NOT APPEAR THE TROUGH WILL EVER FULLY GET HERE...THOUGH...AS
MODELS FORECAST IT TO SPLIT APART TUESDAY NIGHT OVER THE PLAINS. A
PERSISTENT STREAM OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...NOTED
BY PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HOVERING BETWEEN 1-1.4 INCHES THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...WILL STAY OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND PROVIDE FUEL
FOR PRECIPITATION. THIS MOISTURE INTERACTING WITH 500MB HEIGHT FALLS
OF 10-20 METERS PER 12 HOURS FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...SURGES OF
ISENTROPIC LIFT THROUGHOUT...AND EVEN LOW TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
COME TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT ALL SUPPORT THE PERIODIC ROUNDS OF
PRECIPITATION. BEST CHANCES START OFF MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WEST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...THEN SLOWLY PUSH EAST FOR TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING CLOSER. WITH STILL SOME
DIFFERENCES EXACTLY HOW THE PRECIPITATION ROUNDS WILL EVOLVE...
MAXIMUM CHANCES ARE HELD AROUND 70. HOWEVER...LATER FORECASTS SHOULD
BE ABLE TO FIND BOTH TIME PERIODS AND AREAS OF FOCUS TO RAISE
CHANCES FURTHER. CAPE IS PRESENT DURING THE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
TIME PERIOD...THOUGH GRADUALLY LOWERS OVER TIME IN RESPONSE TO LAPSE
RATES BECOMING MORE TOWARDS MOIST ADIABATIC AND INCREASING CLOUD
COVER. ON MONDAY...GENERALLY MUCAPE IS 500 J/KG OR LESS...THEN DROPS
TO 300 J/KG OR LESS FOR TUESDAY. DEFINITELY WARRANTS A THUNDER
MENTION BUT COVERAGE SHOULD PREDOMINATELY STAY SCATTERED. DAY 2
OUTLOOK PULLED THE SEVERE RISK OUT OF OUR AREA FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY
3...AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN LIMITED INSTABILITY AND 0-3/0-6
KM SHEAR LESS THAN 25 KTS. REGARDING TEMPERATURES...LOWS ARE A
LITTLE EASIER TO FORECAST THAN HIGHS...SINCE THE CLOUDS AND HIGH
DEWPOINTS WILL HELP TO HOLD READINGS UP. SHOULD SEE SOME COOLING FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT OVER THE DAKOTAS MOVES IN. HIGHS
COMPLETELY DEPEND ON HOW THE PRECIPITATION EXACTLY EVOLVES. 850MB
TEMPS STAY 10-12C ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SO IF ANY SUN OCCURS
TEMPERATURES COULD EASILY GET INTO THE 70S. FOR NOW KIND OF FOLLOWED
A BLEND OF GUIDANCE...WHICH PRODUCES WARMEST READINGS IN WISCONSIN
WHERE A LITTLE SUN IS MORE LIKELY.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
335 AM CDT SUN MAR 18 2012
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT EXISTS AMONGST THE 18.00Z ECMWF/GFS/CANADIAN
AND GFS ENSEMBLES REGARDING THE UPPER TROUGH SPLIT FROM TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH ALL OF THESE MODELS NOW HAVING AN UPPER LOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE POSITION OF THE
UPPER LOW HELPS TO MAINTAIN UPPER RIDGING OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THURSDAY. DESPITE THE UPPER RIDGING...CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE AS THE MOISTURE STREAM REFERENCED IN THE
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT DISCUSSION GETS STUCK OVER THE FORECAST
AREA. IN ADDITION...THERE APPEARS TO BE PERSISTENT LOW TO MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS ACTING ON THE MOISTURE STREAM.
BEYOND THURSDAY...THE FORECAST BECOMES A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAIN. SOME
OF THE TROUGHING THE MODELS SHOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON
WEDNESDAY IS FORECAST TO EJECT OUT. TWO SCENARIOS EXIST:
1. THE 18.00Z GFS/CANADIAN AND MAJORITY OF GFS ENSEMBLES ARE FASTER
IN THE EJECTION AND MORE SHEARED OUT...WHICH IN TURN ALLOWS THE
MODELS TO MAINTAIN UPPER RIDGING OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
SUNDAY. IF THIS SCENARIO PRESENTED PANS OUT...SOME PRECIPITATION
WOULD REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE MOISTURE STREAM SLOWLY
DRIES UP AND THE FRONTOGENESIS WEAKENS...THEN DRY WEATHER PREVAILS
THEREAFTER. MORE IMPORTANTLY...850MB TEMPS COOL TO NO LOWER THAN 8C.
2. THE 17.12Z AND 18.00Z ECMWF SUGGEST THE PORTION OF THE TROUGH IS
SLOWER AND MORE POTENT...EVENTUALLY DIGGING DOWN THROUGH ONTARIO ON
SATURDAY. THIS SCENARIO STILL KEEPS PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE THROUGH
FRIDAY AND DRY CONDITIONS THEREAFTER...BUT 850MB TEMPS END UP
FALLING TO 0 TO -4C ON SATURDAY...COLDEST NORTH OF I-94.
IT MAY TAKE A FEW DAYS TO FIGURE OUT WHAT WHICH SCENARIO IS MORE
LIKELY TO OCCUR. FOR WHAT IT IS WORTH...THE ECMWF APPEARS TO BE
TRENDED MORE TOWARDS THE GFS/CANADIAN CAMP. FOR NOW HAVE STUCK WITH
A MODEL CONSENSUS APPROACH FOR BOTH PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURE
FORECASTS WHICH...FOR TEMPERATURES...KEEPS THE ABOVE NORMAL
CONDITIONS GOING BUT DEFINITELY COOLER THAN WE HAVE BEEN DEALING
WITH RECENTLY. ALSO...THE CFS V2 MODEL ENSEMBLE WHICH HAS DONE
EXTREMELY WELL WITH THE RECENT WARM SPELL LEANS MORE TOWARDS THE
GFS/CANADIAN IDEA...THOUGH THE GFS IS A MEMBER OF THE CFS.
&&
.AVIATION...
1110 PM CDT SAT MAR 17 2012
LOW MVFR CIGS DEVELOPED ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN IA/MN EARLY THIS
MORNING...IN A REGION OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. CONCERN IS
THAT THIS REGION COULD SHIFT A BIT FARTHER EAST TONIGHT...IMPACTING
KRST/KLSE. LATEST RUC13/NAM12 SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THE
EASTERN EDGE OF THIS HIGHER MOISTURE COULD REACH KRST BY 09Z
SUN...BUT THE AXIS DOESN/T REALLY SHIFT OVER THE LOCAL AREA UNTIL
MONDAY NIGHT/TUE. IN ADDITION...NOT MUCH OF A NOCTURNAL INVERSION
TONIGHT INDICATED VIA BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...WITH ABOUT 15 KTS OF WIND
BY 100 FT. THE FOG POTENTIAL WILL BE LOW. LOW MVFR CIGS DO LOOK
POSSIBLE AT KRST BETWEEN 09-15Z OR SO...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS SHAKY
ON THIS. WILL KEEP IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW...BUT CLOSE MONITORING OF
SATELLITE/OBS WILL NEED TO BE DONE...AND UPDATES TO THE FORECAST AS
NECESSARY.
WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH MONDAY WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS VIA
MIXING OF 30 TO 35 KTS AT KRST...SLIGHTLY LESS AT KLSE.
&&
.CLIMATE...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY
335 AM CDT SUN MAR 18 2012
ANOTHER DAY OF RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH
TEMPERATURES LIKELY CLIMBING UP TO AROUND 80. ROCHESTER WHICH HAS A
REALLY COOL RECORD HIGH OF 60 COMPARED TO ALL OTHER SITES AROUND THE
REGION WILL BE SHATTERED. IN FACT...ROCHESTER HAS ALREADY SET THEIR
RECORD HIGH FOR TODAY WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 66 AT MIDNIGHT. RECORD
HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO BE BROKEN TONIGHT AND GIVEN
CURRENT READINGS...WE COULD BREAK THE ALL TIME MARCH HIGH MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES AGAIN AFTER BREAKING THEM YESTERDAY.
MORE RECORD HIGHS AND RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. RECORD HIGHS DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE
BEFORE PRECIPITATION MOVES IN.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
335 AM CDT SUN MAR 18 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION.....RIECK
CLIMATE......AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
331 AM CDT SUN MAR 18 2012
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY.
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW AN AMPLIFIED
PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA...CONSISTING OF A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE
WEST COAST AND STRONG RIDGING EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. A
SHORTWAVE IS ATTEMPTING TO UNDER-CUT THE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN
OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES...AND IS SENDING A CIRRUS
SHIELD INTO EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN. PRETTY QUIET UPSTREAM SO FAR
THIS MORNING. A CU FIELD HAS BEEN DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN MINNESOTA
AND IOWA ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK 850MB THETAE ADVECTION...BUT THE
ATMOSPHERE APPEARS CAPPED AT THE MOMENT. FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE
POP CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES.
TODAY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS ILLINOIS THIS MORNING WILL
MOVE EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES TODAY...AND SHOULD NOT
IMPACT THE AREA. OTHERWISE...WEAK 850MB THETAE ADVECTION WILL SHIFT
EAST OVER WISCONSIN THIS MORNING AND SHOULD BRING A CU FIELD
OVERHEAD. CROSSING MY FINGERS WILL NOT HAVE A REPEAT OF LAST
NIGHT...AS MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN STEEP THOUGH CAPPING WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING. INCREASING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS AND
700MB WARM ADVECTION WILL HELP A POTENT CAP BUILD BY LATE MORNING
ONWARD...WHICH WILL SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE ANY CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.
NO SIGN OF ANY MARINE FOG...SO WILL JUST KEEP A PATCHY WORDING IN
THE FORECAST. LOW LEVEL TEMPS ARE VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT THEY WERE
YESTERDAY. SO JUST BLENDED YESTERDAYS HIGHS WITH THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.
TONIGHT...VERY LITTLE CHANGES INTO TONIGHT. MID-LEVEL RIDGING MOVES
ON TO THE EAST...BUT LOOKS LIKE CAPPING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. WILL
START TO SEE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARRIVE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
LATE. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN OVER-DOING FOG POTENTIAL GREATLY
LATELY...AND WILL KEEP A MENTION OVER FAR NE WISCONSIN WHERE SURFACE
WINDS ARE PROJECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY MORE EASTERLY THAN THE SYNOPTIC
FLOW...AND COULD ADVECT MARINE AIR INLAND. LOWS MAINLY RANGING
THROUGH THE 50S.
MONDAY...HEIGHT FALLS START ARRIVING ALONG WITH A PRETTY GOOD INFLUX
OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROPICAL MOISTURE. PWATS WILL CREEP UP TO
1.5 INCHES WHILE THE CAP WILL BE ERODED OVER THE COURSE OF THE
MORNING. CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 60S
NORTH TO LOWER 70S SOUTH...AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH THOSE TEMPS
BY MIDDAY OR SO. WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE 70S...ML CAPES
WILL REACH AROUND 1000 J/KG WHILE CIN WILL BE ZERO. SEEMS LIKE A
GOOD RECIPE FOR PULSE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING WITH THE
HEAT OF THE DAY. 0-6KM SHEAR WILL ONLY BE IN THE 20-30 KT
RANGE...SO SHOULDNT SEE ANYTHING ORGANIZED...BUT WOULDNT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW STORMS FLIRT WITH NEAR WARNING
CRITERIA...MAINLY FOR HAIL. SE FLOW WILL HELP PROTECT THE DOOR AND
SOUTHERN MARINETTE COUNTY.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THRU SATURDAY. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES
ARE TEMPS...FOG POTENTIAL...AND PRECIP CHANCES.
MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE ON OVERALL PATTERN AS UPPER RIDGE SLIDES
TOWARD THE EASTERN SEABOARD EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND THE WESTERN U.S.
TROUGH CROSSES INTO THE PLAINS. UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL
ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.S. AND SOUTHERN CANADA MID-WEEK...AS CUT OFF
UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVES EAST INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS HIGHEST POPS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH-
CENTRAL WI MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...AS BEST FORCING
AND MOISTURE REMAIN SITUATED OVER EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI NEAR A
BAROCLINIC ZONE SAGGING INTO NW WI. EASTERN WI MAY VERY WELL STAY
DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IF CURRENT TIMING HOLDS...AS ONLY
A STRAY SHOWER/STORM WOULD BE POSSIBLE IN THE PERSISTENT SW FLOW.
AS UPPER LOW INCHES CLOSER MID-WEEK...DEEP MOISTURE ON THE
NORTHERN FRINGE OF IT WILL COMBINE WITH INCREASING LIFT FIRST FROM
AN UPPER JET...THEN FROM THE UPPER LOW ITSELF...TO KEEP HIGH
CHANCE POPS EAST AND LIKELY POPS WEST. NOT EXPECTING MUCH SUN
EITHER IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN. AS THE UPPER LOW
MOVES TOWARD THE EASTERN SEABOARD NEXT WEEKEND... WEAK RIDGING
SHOULD BUILDS ACROSS THE PLAINS...BRINGING DRY WEATHER BACK TO THE
REGION. THIS FAR NOT...NOT SURPRISING MODEL DIFFER ON THE DEGREE
OF AMPLIFICATION SO WILL NEED TO SEE HOW MODELS HANDLE THIS IN
LATER RUNS.
FOG POTENTIAL REMAINS ON LAKE MICHIGAN AS HIGH DEWPOINTS INTERACT
WITH THE COOLER WATERS. BASED ON THE PAST FEW DAYS/NIGHTS...NOT
MUCH FOG OVER THE BAY...AND ONLY PATCHY ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST WI.
DO NOT SEE MUCH CHANGE FOR MONDAY NIGHT...SO WILL CONTINUE TO JUST
MENTION PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE FAR NE AND BAY/LAKE. WILL LINGER
PATCHY FOG OVER LAKE MICHIGAN INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN INCREASING
WINDS AND PRECIP SHOULD REDUCE THE FOG THREAT.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED...WITH THE
WARMEST TEMPS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY...THEN CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL
KNOCK DOWN TEMPS FROM THE RECORD BREAKING READINGS. N/NE FLOW
WILL TAKE TEMPS DOWN SEVERAL MORE DEGREES FOR SATURDAY...BUT STILL
REMAINING 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. WITH A SLOWER ONSET OF PRECIP
ACROSS EASTERN WI ON TUESDAY...HAVE RAISED TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES
ACROSS EASTERN WI. AS 850MB TEMPS HOVER AROUND 12C...SOME SPOTS
COULD MAKE ANOTHER RUN AT 80 DEGREES IF WINDS REMAIN SOUTHERLY AND
WE CAN GET A LITTLE SUN TO HELP OUT.
&&
.AVIATION...PATCHY MVFR VSBYS DUE TOO FOG MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT
AND LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE
AGAIN.
TDH
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MPC/BERSCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
504 AM EDT TUE MAR 20 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT OVER NEW ENGLAND DISSIPATES JUST TO THE NORTH
OF THE TRI-STATE AREA THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
OFFSHORE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH MID WEEK. A COLD FRONT
THEN PUSHES TO OUR SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A SURFACE LOW APPROACHES THE
AREA FROM THE WEST BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
OVERALL...JET STREAM WELL NORTH OF THE REGION WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
ACROSS THE REGION. WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND BULK OF
ASSOCIATED PVA SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE WILL BE ESTABLISHED WELL OFFSHORE WITH DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED. THIS WILL KEEP A CONTINUED LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW TODAY.
BIG QUESTION IS THE FOG AND LOW LEVEL STRATUS THAT HAS SOME DECENT
AGREEMENT BETWEEN MOS GUIDANCE AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS TO BE PRESENT
GOING INTO DAYBREAK AND LAST THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY THIS MORNING.
CURRENT FORECAST HAS THESE CONDITIONS ENDING LATE THIS MORNING. THERE
IS UNCERTAINTY WITH THE ENDING TIME AND RUC BUFKIT FOR EXAMPLE
SHOWS A MUCH LONGER DURATION FOR COASTAL SITES WITH THICKENING OF
STRATUS THROUGH THE DAY. THERE IS AN INVERSION ABOVE THE SURFACE
UP TO AROUND 950 MB. LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW HELPS TRAP MOISTURE
BENEATH THIS INVERSION. GREATER NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS HAVE SHOWN
A SHARP DOWNWARD TREND TO VISIBILITIES DOWN TO QUARTER MILE OR
LESS. DENSE FOG ADVISORY ISSUED FOR LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF NYC FOR NOW UNTIL 14Z WITH POTENTIAL FOR EXPANSION TO
INCLUDE ADJACENT AREAS TO THE NORTH SUCH AS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
NYC...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...AND COASTAL CONNECTICUT.
WE START TO MIX OUT TOWARDS AFTERNOON ONCE INVERSION BREAKS. THIS
WOULD PROMOTE INCREASED DAYTIME WARMTH AS CLOUD COVER DECREASES.
THIS TIMING WILL BE CRUCIAL FOR MAX TEMP FORECAST TODAY...POTENTIALLY
HIGHER OR LOWER DEPENDING ON WHEN EXACTLY THE CLOUDS SCATTER OUT.
TOOK A MAV/MET BLEND BUT MADE SLIGHTLY COOLER ALONG THE
COAST...WHERE STRATUS/FOG WILL BE PRESENT IN THE MORNING WITH LESS
DIURNAL WARMING THAN FARTHER INTERIOR. CURRENT FORECAST HAS LOWER
70S FOR HIGHS ACROSS INTERIOR AND MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S
NEAR THE COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SAME SCENARIO SETS UP FOR TONIGHT WITH MILD LOWS EXPECTED.
CONTINUED DRY WEATHER. FEATURES ALOFT REMAIN NEARLY THE SAME.
AGAIN A MAV/MET BLEND WAS USED FOR LOW TEMPERATURES. WITH FLOW
TURNING MORE SOUTHERLY...THINK THAT FOG WILL BE KEPT AT PATCHY
COVERAGE OUTSIDE OF THE CITY. THIS WILL LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY BUT
EXPECT A WARMER DAY WITH THE MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW. LESS REMARKABLE
INCREASE IN WARMTH FOR THE COAST WITH MARITIME INFLUENCE. HIGHS
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THOSE OF TUESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
DEEP LAYER RIDGING ANCHORED OVER THE EAST COAST WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL
ABOVE NORMAL.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS SOUTH...MORE OF A
SOUTHWEST FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL DEVELOP. THESE RELATIVELY HIGHER
WINDS WITH A MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT SHOULD REDUCE THE FOG POTENTIAL
FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD INTO THURSDAY MORNING. FOR NOW...WILL
CONTINUE TO CARRY PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS FALL
INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S.
A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY. THE
FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY...AND WITH DECENT MIXING TEMPERATURES
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE CLOSE TO 20 DEGREE ABOVE NORMAL. IN
ADDITION...SOME OF OUR CLIMATE STATIONS WILL COME CLOSE TO OR BREAK
THEIR RESPECTIVE RECORDS. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 70S
TO NEAR 80 ACROSS THE INTERIOR...AND UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S CLOSER
TO THE COAST. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AND ISOLATED THUNDER FOR LATE
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH COLD FRONT PASSAGE...ALTHOUGH
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AT BEST.
DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW SETS UP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN ON FRIDAY...ALLOWING A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO APPROACH ON SATURDAY AND IMPACT THE REGION SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE GRIDS LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH POPS CONTINUING
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION. THERE
MAY BE SOME LEFT OVER SHOWERS MONDAY MORNING AS THE LOW
DEPARTS...HOWEVER BY AFTERNOON...DRIER WEATHER WILL BE WORKING BACK
INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL...BUT NOT AS WARM AS IT HAS BEEN THIS WEEK. HIGHS ONLY IN THE
50S AND LOWER 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH TOMORROW.
A VARIETY OF CONDITIONS NOTED ACROSS THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING.
COASTAL TAF SITES WILL REMAIN IFR WITH OCCASIONAL LIFR THROUGH 14Z
AS DEVELOPING FOG DIMINISHES VIS LESS THAN 1/2SM...AND DOWN TO
1/4SM AT TIMES. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING IS MODERATE...AND MAY NEED TO
BE ADJUSTED. INLAND...FOG EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY 10Z...BUT SHOULD
REMAIN AT IFR LEVELS. VIS IMPROVE LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THIS
AFTERNOON.
CIGS WILL DIMINISH STILL...WITH ALL SITES DROPPING LESS THAN 010
AND ISOLATED SPOTS DROPPING TO LESS THAN 005. AGAIN...MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE AND TIMING. CIGS IMPROVE FOR THE DAY.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH A SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW EXPECTED DURING THE DAY BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH 12Z.
AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED TO ADJUST VIS AND CIGS.
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH 12Z.
AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED TO ADJUST VIS AND CIGS.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 14Z.
AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED IF VIS/CIG DIMINISH TO LIFR CONDITIONS
BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 14Z.
AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED IF VIS/CIG DIMINISH TO LIFR CONDITIONS
BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH 13Z.
AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED TO ADJUST VIS AND CIGS.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED TO ADJUST TIMING OF
LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS. POSSIBLE LIFR VIS THROUGH 12Z.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WED...IFR STRATUS/FOG POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING (LOW CONFIDENCE)...THEN
VFR.
.THU-FRI...VFR.
.SAT...MARGINAL VFR CIG.
&&
.MARINE...
WITH DOMINANT RIDGING ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE...SHOULD SEE
SUB SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE. AREAS OF FOG EXPECTED THIS MORNING AND
PATCHY FOG FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...WHICH COULD BE
LOCALLY DENSE...ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS.
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WIND GUSTS WILL LIKELY INCREASE BUT REMAIN SUB
SCA LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE THIS WEEKEND AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE AREA WATERS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ074-075-
078>081-176>179.
NJ...MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ338-345-
350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/JM
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...SEARS
MARINE...BC/JM
HYDROLOGY...BC/JM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
423 AM EDT TUE MAR 20 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT OVER NEW ENGLAND DISSIPATES JUST TO THE NORTH
OF THE TRI-STATE AREA THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
OFFSHORE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH MID WEEK. A COLD FRONT
THEN PUSHES TO OUR SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A SURFACE LOW APPROACHES THE
AREA FROM THE WEST BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
OVERALL...JET STREAM WELL NORTH OF THE REGION WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
ACROSS THE REGION. WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND BULK OF
ASSOCIATED PVA SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE WILL BE ESTABLISHED WELL OFFSHORE WITH DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED. THIS WILL KEEP A CONTINUED LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW TODAY.
BIG QUESTION IS THE FOG AND LOW LEVEL STRATUS THAT HAS SOME DECENT
AGREEMENT BETWEEN MOS GUIDANCE AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS TO BE PRESENT
GOING INTO DAYBREAK AND LAST THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY THIS MORNING.
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH THE ENDING TIME AND RUC BUFKIT FOR EXAMPLE
SHOWS A MUCH LONGER DURATION FOR COASTAL SITES WITH THICKENING OF
STRATUS THROUGH THE DAY. THERE IS AN INVERSION ABOVE THE SURFACE UP
TO AROUND 950 MB. LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW HELPS TRAP MOISTURE
BENEATH THIS INVERSION. OTHER UNCERTAINTY IS HOW DENSE THE FOG WILL
BE. WITH ONLY ISOLATED REPORTS OF FOG IN THE AREA...WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR PROGRESS OF UPSTREAM OBS AND SEE HOW FAR THE EXTENT OF
THIS FOG AND HOW DENSE IT GETS OVER NEXT FEW HOURS.
WE START TO MIX OUT TOWARDS AFTERNOON ONCE INVERSION BREAKS. THIS
WOULD PROMOTE INCREASED DAYTIME WARMTH AS CLOUD COVER DECREASES.
THIS TIMING WILL BE CRUCIAL FOR MAX TEMP FORECAST TODAY...POTENTIALLY
HIGHER OR LOWER DEPENDING ON WHEN EXACTLY THE CLOUDS SCATTER OUT.
TOOK A MAV/MET BLEND BUT MADE SLIGHTLY COOLER ALONG THE
COAST...WHERE STRATUS/FOG WILL BE PRESENT IN THE MORNING WITH LESS
DIURNAL WARMING THAN FARTHER INTERIOR. CURRENT FORECAST HAS LOWER
70S FOR HIGHS ACROSS INTERIOR AND MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S
NEAR THE COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SAME SCENARIO SETS UP FOR TONIGHT WITH MILD LOWS EXPECTED.
CONTINUED DRY WEATHER. FEATURES ALOFT REMAIN NEARLY THE SAME.
AGAIN A MAV/MET BLEND WAS USED FOR LOW TEMPERATURES. WITH FLOW
TURNING MORE SOUTHERLY...THINK THAT FOG WILL BE KEPT AT PATCHY
COVERAGE OUTSIDE OF THE CITY. THIS WILL LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY BUT
EXPECT A WARMER DAY WITH THE MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW. LESS REMARKABLE
INCREASE IN WARMTH FOR THE COAST WITH MARITIME INFLUENCE. HIGHS
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THOSE OF TUESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
DEEP LAYER RIDGING ANCHORED OVER THE EAST COAST WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL
ABOVE NORMAL.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS SOUTH...MORE OF A
SOUTHWEST FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL DEVELOP. THESE RELATIVELY HIGHER
WINDS WITH A MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT SHOULD REDUCE THE FOG POTENTIAL
FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD INTO THURSDAY MORNING. FOR NOW...WILL
CONTINUE TO CARRY PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS FALL
INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S.
A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY. THE
FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY...AND WITH DECENT MIXING TEMPERATURES
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE CLOSE TO 20 DEGREE ABOVE NORMAL. IN
ADDITION...SOME OF OUR CLIMATE STATIONS WILL COME CLOSE TO OR BREAK
THEIR RESPECTIVE RECORDS. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 70S
TO NEAR 80 ACROSS THE INTERIOR...AND UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S CLOSER
TO THE COAST. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AND ISOLATED THUNDER FOR LATE
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH COLD FRONT PASSAGE...ALTHOUGH
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AT BEST.
DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW SETS UP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN ON FRIDAY...ALLOWING A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO APPROACH ON SATURDAY AND IMPACT THE REGION SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE GRIDS LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH POPS CONTINUING
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION. THERE
MAY BE SOME LEFT OVER SHOWERS MONDAY MORNING AS THE LOW
DEPARTS...HOWEVER BY AFTERNOON...DRIER WEATHER WILL BE WORKING BACK
INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL...BUT NOT AS WARM AS IT HAS BEEN THIS WEEK. HIGHS ONLY IN THE
50S AND LOWER 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH TOMORROW.
A VARIETY OF CONDITIONS NOTED ACROSS THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING.
COASTAL TAF SITES WILL REMAIN IFR WITH OCCASIONAL LIFR THROUGH 14Z
AS DEVELOPING FOG DIMINISHES VIS LESS THAN 1/2SM...AND DOWN TO
1/4SM AT TIMES. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING IS MODERATE...AND MAY NEED TO
BE ADJUSTED. INLAND...FOG EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY 10Z...BUT SHOULD
REMAIN AT IFR LEVELS. VIS IMPROVE LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THIS
AFTERNOON.
CIGS WILL DIMINISH STILL...WITH ALL SITES DROPPING LESS THAN 010
AND ISOLATED SPOTS DROPPING TO LESS THAN 005. AGAIN...MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE AND TIMING. CIGS IMPROVE FOR THE DAY.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH A SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW EXPECTED DURING THE DAY BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS.
...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH 12Z.
AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED TO ADJUST VIS AND CIGS.
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH 12Z.
AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED TO ADJUST VIS AND CIGS.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 14Z.
AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED IF VIS/CIG DIMINISH TO LIFR CONDITIONS
BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 14Z.
AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED IF VIS/CIG DIMINISH TO LIFR CONDITIONS
BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH 13Z.
AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED TO ADJUST VIS AND CIGS.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED TO ADJUST TIMING OF
LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS. POSSIBLE LIFR VIS THROUGH 12Z.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WED...IFR STRATUS/FOG POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING (LOW CONFIDENCE)...THEN
VFR.
.THU-FRI...VFR.
.SAT...MARGINAL VFR CIG.
&&
.MARINE...
WITH DOMINANT RIDGING ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE...SHOULD SEE
SUB SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE. AREAS OF FOG EXPECTED THIS MORNING AND
PATCHY FOG FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...WHICH COULD BE
LOCALLY DENSE...ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS.
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WIND GUSTS WILL LIKELY INCREASE BUT REMAIN SUB
SCA LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE THIS WEEKEND AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE AREA WATERS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ338-345-
350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/JM
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...SEARS
MARINE...BC/JM
HYDROLOGY...BC/JM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
401 AM EDT TUE MAR 20 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT OVER NEW ENGLAND DISSIPATES JUST TO THE NORTH
OF THE TRI-STATE AREA THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
OFFSHORE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH MID WEEK. A COLD FRONT
THEN PUSHES TO OUR SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A SURFACE LOW APPROACHES THE
AREA FROM THE WEST BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
OVERALL...JET STREAM WELL NORTH OF THE REGION WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
ACROSS THE REGION. WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND BULK OF
ASSOCIATED PVA SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE WILL BE ESTABLISHED WELL OFFSHORE WITH DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED. THIS WILL KEEP A CONTINUED LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW TODAY.
BIG QUESTION IS THE FOG AND LOW LEVEL STRATUS THAT HAS SOME DECENT
AGREEMENT BETWEEN MOS GUIDANCE AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS TO BE PRESENT
GOING INTO DAYBREAK AND LAST THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY THIS MORNING.
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH THE ENDING TIME AND RUC BUFKIT FOR EXAMPLE
SHOWS A MUCH LONGER DURATION FOR COASTAL SITES WITH THICKENING OF
STRATUS THROUGH THE DAY. THERE IS AN INVERSION ABOVE THE SURFACE UP
TO AROUND 950 MB. LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW HELPS TRAP MOISTURE
BENEATH THIS INVERSION. OTHER UNCERTAINTY IS HOW DENSE THE FOG WILL
BE. WITH ONLY ISOLATED REPORTS OF FOG IN THE AREA...WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR PROGRESS OF UPSTREAM OBS AND SEE HOW FAR THE EXTENT OF
THIS FOG AND HOW DENSE IT GETS OVER NEXT FEW HOURS.
WE START TO MIX OUT TOWARDS AFTERNOON ONCE INVERSION BREAKS. THIS
WOULD PROMOTE INCREASED DAYTIME WARMTH AS CLOUD COVER DECREASES.
THIS TIMING WILL BE CRUCIAL FOR MAX TEMP FORECAST TODAY...POTENTIALLY
HIGHER OR LOWER DEPENDING ON WHEN EXACTLY THE CLOUDS SCATTER OUT.
TOOK A MAV/MET BLEND BUT MADE SLIGHTLY COOLER ALONG THE
COAST...WHERE STRATUS/FOG WILL BE PRESENT IN THE MORNING WITH LESS
DIURNAL WARMING THAN FARTHER INTERIOR. CURRENT FORECAST HAS LOWER
70S FOR HIGHS ACROSS INTERIOR AND MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S
NEAR THE COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SAME SCENARIO SETS UP FOR TONIGHT WITH MILD LOWS EXPECTED.
CONTINUED DRY WEATHER. FEATURES ALOFT REMAIN NEARLY THE SAME.
AGAIN A MAV/MET BLEND WAS USED FOR LOW TEMPERATURES. WITH FLOW
TURNING MORE SOUTHERLY...THINK THAT FOG WILL BE KEPT AT PATCHY
COVERAGE OUTSIDE OF THE CITY. THIS WILL LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY BUT
EXPECT A WARMER DAY WITH THE MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW. LESS REMARKABLE
INCREASE IN WARMTH FOR THE COAST WITH MARITIME INFLUENCE. HIGHS
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THOSE OF TUESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
DEEP LAYER RIDGING ANCHORED OVER THE EAST COAST WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL
ABOVE NORMAL.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS SOUTH...MORE OF A
SOUTHWEST FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL DEVELOP. THESE RELATIVELY HIGHER
WINDS WITH A MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT SHOULD REDUCE THE FOG POTENTIAL
FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD INTO THURSDAY MORNING. FOR NOW...WILL
CONTINUE TO CARRY PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS FALL
INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S.
A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY. THE
FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY...AND WITH DECENT MIXING TEMPERATURES
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE CLOSE TO 20 DEGREE ABOVE NORMAL. IN
ADDITION...SOME OF OUR CLIMATE STATIONS WILL COME CLOSE TO OR BREAK
THEIR RESPECTIVE RECORDS. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 70S
TO NEAR 80 ACROSS THE INTERIOR...AND UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S CLOSER
TO THE COAST. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AND ISOLATED THUNDER FOR LATE
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH COLD FRONT PASSAGE...ALTHOUGH
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AT BEST.
DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW SETS UP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN ON FRIDAY...ALLOWING A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO APPROACH ON SATURDAY AND IMPACT THE REGION SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE GRIDS LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH POPS CONTINUING
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION. THERE
MAY BE SOME LEFT OVER SHOWERS MONDAY MORNING AS THE LOW
DEPARTS...HOWEVER BY AFTERNOON...DRIER WEATHER WILL BE WORKING BACK
INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL...BUT NOT AS WARM AS IT HAS BEEN THIS WEEK. HIGHS ONLY IN THE
50S AND LOWER 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY.
FORECAST UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES OVERNIGHT. A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT
CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE AS IT APPROACHES THE REGION...BUT MOIST
ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE WAVE DRIFTS N
FROM THE MID ATLANTIC. WITH STRATUS DEVELOPING ACROSS S NJ/SE PA
AND CREEPING NORTH...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN POTENTIAL FOR IFR
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUES MORNING ACROSS COASTAL
TERMINALS.
STRATUS/FOG EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY MIX OUT TO VFR BY LATE MORNING
WITH DAYTIME HEATING. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE HINTING AT STRATUS
REMAINING OFFSHORE DURING THE DAY...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO IT COMING
BACK INTO THE COASTAL TERMINALS FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER SUNDOWN TUES
EVE. CONFIDENCE ON THAT IS LOW.
OTHERWISE...GENERALLY LIGHT SE FLOW...VEERING MAINLY TO THE RIGHT
OF 120 TRUE IN THE AFTERNOON. HYBRID AFTERNOON SEABREEZE ALONG
COASTAL TERMINALS SHOULD VEER WINDS MORE TO THE SSE.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
TUESDAY NIGHT...IFR STRATUS/FOG POSSIBLE.
.WED...IFR STRATUS/FOG POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING (LOW
CONFIDENCE)...THEN VFR.
.THU-FRI...VFR.
.SAT...MARGINAL VFR CIG.
&&
.MARINE...
WITH DOMINANT RIDGING ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE...SHOULD SEE
SUB SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE. AREAS OF FOG EXPECTED THIS MORNING AND
PATCHY FOG FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...WHICH COULD BE
LOCALLY DENSE...ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS.
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WIND GUSTS WILL LIKELY INCREASE BUT REMAIN SUB
SCA LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE THIS WEEKEND AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE AREA WATERS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/JM
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...SEARS
MARINE...BC/JM
HYDROLOGY...BC/JM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
148 AM EDT TUE MAR 20 2012
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS...FEW AVIATION CONCERNS OF NOTE FOR THE 06Z TAFS.
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW TO CONTINUE IN MODEST SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENT WITH SPEEDS OF 10 KNOTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT. LITTLE
EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY IS EXPECTED...WHICH WILL KEEP STRONGER FORCING WITH CUT
OFF UPPER LOW TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA. DEEPER MIXING
EXPECTED TODAY WHICH SHOULD PROMOTE WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS
THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE SOUTH. WEAKER AFTERNOON INSTABILITY
EXPECTED TODAY WITH DEEPER MIXING TO THE SURFACE OF SLIGHTLY DRIER
AIR PRECLUDING ANY AFTERNOON SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. VFR CONDITIONS TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 745 PM EDT MON MAR 19 2012/
AVIATION/UPDATE...
SCT TSTMS OVER NWRN IN HAVE DIMINISHED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS
EVE AS TSTM OUTFLOWS AND LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING HAVE STABILIZED
AIRMASS. UPDATED GRIDS/ZFP FOR ENDING OF SHOWERS BY 00Z. ANOTHER
WK SHRTWV EXPECTED TO LIFT UP WESTERN PORTION OF UPR RIDGE
TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM PRODUCING TSTMS AS FAR EAST AS WEST CENTRAL
IL THIS EVE BUT SHOULD ONLY CAUSE SOME HIGH CLOUDS TO MOVE ACROSS
NRN INDIANA OVERNIGHT. THE AFTN STORMS ACROSS NW INDIANA HAVE
RESULTED IN A COOLER MORE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER THAN 24HRS AGO AT
SBN SO FOG A CONCERN THERE TONIGHT... BUT APPEARS SOUTHERLY
GRADIENT WINDS WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT MIXING TO KEEP VSBYS VFR AT
THE TERMINAL. WK INSTABILITY WILL BUILD WITH DIURNAL HEATING AGAIN
DURING THE DAY TUE... BUT WITH LACK OF ANY FORCING MECHANISMS...
EXPECT JUST SCT CU WILL RESULT. FAIRLY DEEP MIXING DURING THE DAY
SHOULD RESULT IN MODEST SOUTHERLY SFC WINDS WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO
ABOUT 22KT PSBL.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 PM EDT MON MAR 19 2012/
SHORT TERM... /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISOLATED SHOWERS POPPING HERE AND THERE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA. MOST PERSISTENT AND STRONGEST STORM DEVELOPED IN
SOUTHERN LAPORTE COUNTY AND HAS BEEN REDEVELOPING SE WITH TIME AS
THE STORM CYCLES. THIS STORM WILL MOVE TOWARDS SOUTH BEND OVER THE
NEXT HOUR OR SO WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLY SOME SMALL
HAIL. OTHERWISE...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE FORMING
UPSTREAM ACROSS EC ILLINOIS INTO FAR WESTERN INDIANA. SFC BASED
CAPES OF 2000 J/KG AND LI`S TO -6 C WERE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA.
HRRR FIRES EVEN MORE CONVECTION WITH TIME INTO EARLY EVENING ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA. THINK HRRR MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE ON ITS
COVERAGE...BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR EXPANDING COVERAGE AS OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES FROM ST JOE COUNTY CONVECTION MAY EXPAND COVERAGE
SOMEWHAT. ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE BY EARLY EVENING AS LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING OCCURS AND BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO COOL.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN BE IN STORE FROM MID EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH LOWS DROPPING BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT
SEE ANY RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT
OF THE ZONES FOR THE TIME BEING.
LONG TERM...
TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY. FEW CHANGES TO AFFORD WRT MED-LONG TERM
FCST PD. CENTROID OF STALWART RIDGE AMASSES INTO WRN OH BY WED
EVE. CONTINUED STRONG INSOLATION AMID STAGNANT AIRMASS CONTS TO
SUPPORT PROGRESSIVELY WARMER TEMPS INTO WED WITH WED AFTN LKLY
WARMEST...DARE I SAY HOTTEST AS LLVL THERMAL FIELD REACHES APEX.
CONT TO WHITTLE AWAY AT LAKE SHADOW AS STRONG SRLY FLOW TO KEEP
DTC RESPONSE OFFSHORE. WITH INCREASED AGREEMENT WRT TIMING OF 5H
CUTOFF HOLDING SOUTH OF TEXAS RED RIVER VALLEY THROUGH 18 UTC
WED...THEREAFTER ONLY SLOWLY LIFTING NEWD TO KS/MO BORDER FRIDAY
MORNING BEFORE TAKING ON A MORE ERLY EXODUS AS NEXT EPAC TROF
DIGS AND IMPARTS DOWNSTREAM BROAD FLAT RIDGING FM WRN TX TO ERN
MT/DAKOTAS. GIVEN SLOWER TREND OF MID/UL PATTERN HAVE REMOVED POPS
THU AMID POOR MID LVL LAPSE RATES AND ACYCLONIC MIDLVL FLOW AND
ABSENCE OF PARTICULAR FOCI. TRENDED POPS HIR ON FRIDAY AS MIDLVL
COLD POOL NEARS WITH MORE FAVORABLE CLOSED CORE LOW CONCEPTUAL
MODEL. INCRSD DIVERGENCE BYND DY6 THOUGH TEND TO FAVOR MORE SERLY
TURN OF ECMWF. GIVEN BREADTH AND SLOW ERLY PROGRESSION INTO HIGH
HGHT ANOMALY...SUSPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ERLY NEXT WEEK TO ONCE
AGAIN SEGUE INTO A PD OF MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...MURPHY
UPDATE...JT
AVIATION...MARSILI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1241 AM MDT TUE MAR 20 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 555 PM MDT MON MAR 19 2012
PRIMARY UPDATE WAS TO ADJUST SKY/TEMP/DEW POINT GRIDS TO REFLECT
CURRENT TRENDS. CONTINUED WITH SLIGHTS OVER THE EASTERN TWO TIER
OF COUNTIES AS WIDELY SCATTERED WEAK CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
DEVELOP AND RAPIDLY DIMINISH. ALSO KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIP
OVERNIGHT OVER THE NORTHWEST IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 210 PM MDT MON MAR 19 2012
ADDING DIURNAL ISOLATED T AND -SHRA TO MY ERN ZONES BASED ON
LATEST VIS SAT IMAGERY CONFIRMING SPC RUC INSTABILITY TRENDS AND
ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE HRRR. THE ACTIVITY WILL MOVE TO THE NORTH
THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD DIMINISH BY EARLY EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1259 PM MDT MON MAR 19 2012
MAIN CHANGE OVER THE PREVIOUS FCST WAS TO ADD LOW CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE COLORADO AND NEBRASKA ZONES FOR LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THE REASONING IS BASED MUCH ON THE PROGGED
DEVELOPMENT OF MID-LVL FRONT-G COUPLED WITH THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY. SNDG PROFILES SUGGEST SHRA/FZRA
FOR THESE ZONES GIVEN THE LACK OF ICE BEING INTRODUCED IN THE
COLUMN. THE NARROW BAND OF PRECIP SHOULD END NORTH TO SOUTH BY
MID-MORNING TOMORROW. WIND-WISE THE CURRENT LIGHT AND VAR WINDS
WILL VEER TO NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT GUSTING 20 TO 25 KTS AND
ARE NOT EXPECT TO REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA. HIGH TEMPS TOMORROW
WILL BE COOLER THAN TODAY BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG WITH NORTH WINDS
AT 15 TO 25 MPH. NO PRECIP CHANCES WERE INTRODUCED AT THIS TIME.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1237 AM MDT TUE MAR 20 2012
UPPER LOW WILL FINALLY SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY. IN ITS
WAKE...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AND NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1052 PM MDT MON MAR 19 2012
LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED MUCH SLOWER WITH
STRONGER WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT OVERNIGHT. NOW APPEARS STRONGER
WINDS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AROUND 12-13Z. ALSO APPEARS CIGS WILL
REMAIN JUST INTO VFR. CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT PERIODS OF MVFR
CIGS BUT CONFIDENCE IN SPECIFIC TIMING IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE A
TEMPO GROUP FOR THIS ISSUANCE. WIND GUSTS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE
EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO DECREASE.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...FOLTZ
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....024
AVIATION...FOLTZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1056 PM MDT MON MAR 19 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 555 PM MDT MON MAR 19 2012
PRIMARY UPDATE WAS TO ADJUST SKY/TEMP/DEW POINT GRIDS TO REFLECT
CURRENT TRENDS. CONTINUED WITH SLIGHTS OVER THE EASTERN TWO TIER
OF COUNTIES AS WIDELY SCATTERED WEAK CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
DEVELOP AND RAPIDLY DIMINISH. ALSO KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIP
OVERNIGHT OVER THE NORTHWEST IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 210 PM MDT MON MAR 19 2012
ADDING DIURNAL ISOLATED T AND -SHRA TO MY ERN ZONES BASED ON
LATEST VIS SAT IMAGERY CONFIRMING SPC RUC INSTABILITY TRENDS AND
ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE HRRR. THE ACTIVITY WILL MOVE TO THE NORTH
THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD DIMINISH BY EARLY EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1259 PM MDT MON MAR 19 2012
MAIN CHANGE OVER THE PREVIOUS FCST WAS TO ADD LOW CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE COLORADO AND NEBRASKA ZONES FOR LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THE REASONING IS BASED MUCH ON THE PROGGED
DEVELOPMENT OF MID-LVL FRONT-G COUPLED WITH THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY. SNDG PROFILES SUGGEST SHRA/FZRA
FOR THESE ZONES GIVEN THE LACK OF ICE BEING INTRODUCED IN THE
COLUMN. THE NARROW BAND OF PRECIP SHOULD END NORTH TO SOUTH BY
MID-MORNING TOMORROW. WIND-WISE THE CURRENT LIGHT AND VAR WINDS
WILL VEER TO NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT GUSTING 20 TO 25 KTS AND
ARE NOT EXPECT TO REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA. HIGH TEMPS TOMORROW
WILL BE COOLER THAN TODAY BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG WITH NORTH WINDS
AT 15 TO 25 MPH. NO PRECIP CHANCES WERE INTRODUCED AT THIS TIME.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT MON MAR 19 2012
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONCERN CONTINUES TO
FOCUS ON UPPER LOW AND HOW THE TRACK/TIMING WILL AFFECT TEMPS AND
PRECIP OVER OUR CWA. CLOSED LOW IS STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
TEXAS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING ON SOUTHERN FLANK OF LARGE SCALE TROUGH
CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. LATEST MODELS
HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON GENERAL TRACK OF UPPER LOW
ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE TOWARDS THE OK/KS BORDER BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THIS PUTS OUR CWA IN A FAVORABLE POSITION FOR PRECIP AS A
BAND OF PRECIP FORMS ON THE NW QUAD OF THE H5/H7 LOW AND PUSHES
NORTH TOWARDS NW KS. OVERALL TREND HAS BEEN TO SPEED UP THE ARRIVAL
OF PRECIP...SO I ADDED 20/30 POPS TUESDAY NIGHT AFTER 06Z. PRECIP
TYPE SHOULD REMAIN ALL RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT...THOUGH A RAIN/SNOW MIX
COULDN`T BE RULED OUT BEFORE SUNRISE.
BETTER CHANCES OVERSPREAD THE CWA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
UPPER LOW SHIFT NORTH. I BUMPED POPS ACROSS SE PART OF THE CWA TO
LIKELY CATEGORY FOR THESE PERIODS WHERE THERE IS GOOD OVERLAP
BETWEEN MODEL QPF AND PROJECTED LIFT/MOISTURE. THERE IS LESS
CERTAINTY REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LOW AND POSITION OF
DRY SLOT BY THURSDAY. WITH THIS IN MIND...I ADJUSTED POPS THURSDAY
TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT PROJECTED DRY SLOT POSITION IN THE EAST BY
LIMITING POPS TO SLIGHT CATEGORY. I WAS NOT COMFORTABLE PULLING OR
RAISING POPS BEYOND THE 20/40 RANGE THURSDAY CONSIDERING THE POOR
PERFORMANCE OF GUIDANCE ON CLOSED SYSTEMS FOR OUR AREA.
I AM NOT CONFIDENT IN HIGH TEMPS WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY...WHICH
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON LOCATION OF CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP BOTH DAYS.
OVERALL I TRENDED TEMPS DOWN A LITTLE...BUT KEPT THE CWA GENERALLY
IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. IT SHOULD BE COOLER FOR LOCATIONS WITH
PRECIP/THICK CLOUD COVER.
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...OMEGA BLOCK TYPE PATTERN ESTABLISHES
ITSELF BY THIS WEEKEND WITH H5 RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. GFS
AND GEFS ARE MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE RIDGE...WHICH IS
UNREALISTIC CONSIDERING THE WAY THESE PATTERN USUALLY EVOLVE OVER
THE CENTRAL US. GUIDANCE IN THE PAST TENDS TO BE TOO QUICK TO MOVE
UPSTREAM CLOSED LOWS EASTWARD...WHICH IS LIKELY THE CASE WITH THE
GFS. ECMWF HOLDS ONTO THE STRONG RIDGE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. THE RESULT OF A SLOWER SOLUTION WILL BE WARMER TEMPERATURES
AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THESE PERIODS. I TRENDED TEMPS UP
SAT/SUN/MON WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 70S...NEAR 80F ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS MAY STILL BE TOO COOL...WITH A STRETCH OF VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAD LATE LAST
WEEK AND THIS PAST WEEKEND CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1052 PM MDT MON MAR 19 2012
LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED MUCH SLOWER WITH
STRONGER WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT OVERNIGHT. NOW APPEARS STRONGER
WINDS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AROUND 12-13Z. ALSO APPEARS CIGS WILL
REMAIN JUST INTO VFR. CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT PERIODS OF MVFR
CIGS BUT CONFIDENCE IN SPECIFIC TIMING IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE A
TEMPO GROUP FOR THIS ISSUANCE. WIND GUSTS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE
EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO DECREASE.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...FOLTZ
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....DR
AVIATION...FOLTZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
535 AM EDT TUE MAR 20 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST UNTIL A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND BRINGS
THE POTENTIAL FOR UNSETTLED CONDITIONS NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR LOWER SOUTHERN MD/KING GEORGE
CO. VA. OBS HAVE DROPPED TO A QUARTER MILE OR LESS IN THIS AREA
INCLUDING NHK AND DON/T EXPECT ANY IMPROVEMENT UNTIL MID
MORNING. WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON OBS/TRENDS FURTHER
NORTHWEST IN CASE EXPANSION IS NEEDED.
PREV...
WEAK DISTURBANCE/TROUGH WAS CONTINUING TO PROVIDE MUCH OF CENTRAL
MARYLAND WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOW
LEVELS WERE ALREADY FAIRLY MOIST WITH INFLUENCE FROM LIGHT EASTERLY
FLOW. FOLLOWING RUC/HRRR GUIDANCE...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
MOVE TOWARD THE EAST THROUGH DAYBREAK. WILL HAVE POPS IN THIS AREA
THROUGH ABOUT 12Z...WITH DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE THROUGH THAT TIME.
ANOTHER FACTOR TO CONSIDER IN THE EARLY MORNING FORECAST IS POSSIBLE
FOG FORMATION. MODELS INDICATE MARINE LAYER GETTING A BETTER PUSH
TOWARD DAYBREAK. STILL HAVE THE AFOREMENTIONED SHOWERS TO CONTEND
WITH IN CENTRAL MARYLAND AND ALSO HAVE A DECENT AMOUNT OF CLOUDS
ALREADY OVERHEAD ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA...SO HAVE SOME
UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING BOTH COVERAGE AND MAGNITUDE OF FOG. ABOVE
FACTORS MAY LIMIT DENSE FOG POTENTIAL...ALTHOUGH CAN/T RULE IT OUT
EITHER GIVEN MARINE LAYER INTRUSION AND SEVERAL SOURCES OF GUIDANCE
INDICATING DENSE FOG. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT AREAS OF FOG IN THE
GRIDS ATTM.
BEYOND THIS MORNING...CWA CONTINUES TO BE ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF A
RIDGE AXIS OVER THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. MODELS INDICATE A
DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH IN NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT LATER THIS
MORNING/AFTERNOON. HRRR SUGGESTS MAIN IMPACT MAY BE ACROSS THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST CWA. BUT NAM/GFS ALSO SUGGEST THAT MAY BE SHOWERS
FURTHER EAST TOWARD THE BAY PERHAPS ALONG A LINGERING CONVERGENT
AXIS. EITHER WAY...WILL RAMP POPS BACK UP LATER IN THE
MORNING/AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CWA. FURTHER AWAY FROM INFLUENCE OF THE
MARINE LAYER...ANY THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE HIGHLANDS/CENTRAL
SHENANDOAH VALLEY/CENTRAL VIRGINIA FOOTHILLS COULD PRODUCE SOME
HAIL.
ACTIVITY SHOULD EXIT THE CWA THIS EVENING. MARINE LAYER IS LIKELY TO
PUSH BACK INLAND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. LOW STRATUS AND/OR FOG MAY
RESULT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
A LARGE BLOCKING DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO ENCOMPASS
THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH KINKS IN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND
THE WRN SIDE OF THE HIGH AND CONVERGENCE AREAS TO DEVELOP SOME
SHOWERS FROM THE CAROLINAS INTO THE MID-ATLC. ONE SUCH FEATURE WILL
A RELATIVE UPPER LOW CAUGHT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE UPPER RIDGE
/CENTERED OVER THE TIDEWATER REGION/. AS LOW LEVEL FLOW ROUNDS THE
WRN SIDE OF THE HIGH...BATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN WILL DRIFT NW TOWARD
THE BLUE RIDGE WED MRNG AND INTO THE AFTN HRS. BEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIP ACROSS THE SRN TIER COUNTIES ON WED...BUT AN OUTSIDE CHANCE
FOR A PORTION OF THE ACTIVITY TO DRIFT FURTHER NORTH BEFORE
DISSIPATING.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE OFFSHORE UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN GET REPOSITIONED OVERNIGHT WED
INTO THU...AS THE LARGE AND DEEP UPPER LOW OVER THE SRN PLAINS
BEGINS TO MOVE TOWARD THE EAST. A STRONG NRN STREAM UPPER JET
STATIONED EAST-TO-WEST OVER SRN CANADA ON THU WILL CAUSE THE SRN
PLAINS LOW TO BEGIN MOVING DUE EAST. THIS WON/T LAST LONG...AS THE
JET BEGINS TO PIVOT NW-SE...ALLOWING THE LOW TO DRIFT NEWD INTO THE
OHIO VLY AND CAUSING A FORCED RIDGE AXIS OVER THE APLCNS. THIS WILL
MEAN MORE WARMTH FOR THE ERN SEABOARD AND A RETURN TO NEAR 80 HIGHS
ON THU AND FRI FOR THE MID ATLC. EACH DAY MAY SEE SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS/TSTMS BUT VERY POORLY FORCED AND MAINLY A CONTINUING EFFECT
OF THE HIGH AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK CONVERGENCE.
A FAIRLY CONSISTENT FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND FROM LONG RANGE MEMBERS
THAT BEGIN THE TREK OF THE UPPER LOW INTO THE REGION ON SAT...MOVING
OVER THE MID-ATLC ON SUN AND OFF THE COAST BY EARLY MON. MOVEMENT OF
UPPER LOWS HOWEVER ARE TYPICALLY CHALLENGING BECAUSE THEY ARE
DEPENDENT ON THEIR TELECONNECTIONS W/ THE SYNOPTIC FEATURES THAT
SURROUND THEM. HOWEVER...THE PAST FEW DAYS OF MODEL RUNS HAVE TAKEN
THE UPPER LOW FAIRLY STEADILY OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND...LEADING
TO COOL AND WET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MID-ATLC SAT/SUN.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MARINE LAYER INFLUENCE IS LIKELY TO SUPPORT LOW CIGS IN STRATUS AND
POSSIBLY LOW VSBYS IN FOG THIS MORNING. DEGRADATION HAS BEEN A
LITTLE SLOWER THAN SOME PAST RECENT NIGHTS /SAVE FOR MRB WHICH HAS
ALREADY FOGGED UP AFTER LAST EVENING/S RAIN AND THEN BRIEF
CLEARING/...BUT THERE/S GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG NAM/GFS/HRRR/RUC IN AT
LEAST IFR AND POSSIBLY LIFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AND PERSISTING
THROUGH 14Z-15Z AT THE HUBS. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER AT CHO AND IF IT
WERE TO HAPPEN ONSET WOULD BE CLOSER TO SUNRISE. AFTER CONDITIONS
IMPROVE...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO THE AFTERNOON
ALTHOUGH IT/S DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT EXACTLY WHERE THEY WILL SET UP
SO NO EXPLICIT MENTION HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN TAFS ATTM. MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MORE MARINE LAYER STRATUS/FOG OCCURRING
TONIGHT. ONSET COULD BE A LITTLE SOONER THAN WHAT WE SEE EARLY
THIS MORNING.
OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP MOIST CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION ON
WED FOR ANOTHER DAY OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO
START THE DAY. THE HIGH WILL THEN BEGIN TO PUSH FURTHER OFF THE
COAST THU/FRI AND SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK
WEEK. PERIODS OF LIGHT ELY WINDS ON WED...THEN CHANGING TO SLY ON
THU AND SWLY ON FRI. MORE ACTIVITY WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND...AS
AN UPPER LOW DRIFTS ACROSS THE AREA SAT/SUN INTO EARLY MON.
&&
.MARINE...
THERE WILL BE FOG OVER/NEAR THE WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING THAT COULD
REDUCE TO VSBYS TO 1 NM OR LESS AT TIMES. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
EASTERLY FLOW AT 10 KT OR LESS TO PREVAIL TODAY/TONIGHT.
MARINE LAYER MAY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW VSBYS IN FOG
TONIGHT.
LIGHT WINDS CONTINUING THRU THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE OFF THE COAST SLOWLY FROM THU INTO FRI. AN UPPER LOW BRING MORE
SCATTERED RAIN FOR THE WEEKEND...AND PERIODS OF BREEZY CONDITIONS
BUT LOW-END SCA OR LESS.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ016>018.
VA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ057.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BPP/GMS
NEAR TERM...BPP
SHORT TERM...GMS
LONG TERM...GMS
AVIATION...BPP/GMS
MARINE...BPP/GMS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
400 AM EDT TUE MAR 20 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST UNTIL A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND BRINGS
THE POTENTIAL FOR UNSETTLED CONDITIONS NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WEAK DISTURBANCE/TROUGH WAS CONTINUING TO PROVIDE MUCH OF CENTRAL
MARYLAND WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOW
LEVELS WERE ALREADY FAIRLY MOIST WITH INFLUENCE FROM LIGHT EASTERLY
FLOW. FOLLOWING RUC/HRRR GUIDANCE...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
MOVE TOWARD THE EAST THROUGH DAYBREAK. WILL HAVE POPS IN THIS AREA
THROUGH ABOUT 12Z...WITH DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE THROUGH THAT TIME.
ANOTHER FACTOR TO CONSIDER IN THE EARLY MORNING FORECAST IS POSSIBLE
FOG FORMATION. MODELS INDICATE MARINE LAYER GETTING A BETTER PUSH
TOWARD DAYBREAK. STILL HAVE THE AFOREMENTIONED SHOWERS TO CONTEND
WITH IN CENTRAL MARYLAND AND ALSO HAVE A DECENT AMOUNT OF CLOUDS
ALREADY OVERHEAD ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA...SO HAVE SOME
UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING BOTH COVERAGE AND MAGNITUDE OF FOG. ABOVE
FACTORS MAY LIMIT DENSE FOG POTENTIAL...ALTHOUGH CAN/T RULE IT OUT
EITHER GIVEN MARINE LAYER INTRUSION AND SEVERAL SOURCES OF GUIDANCE
INDICATING DENSE FOG. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT AREAS OF FOG IN THE
GRIDS ATTM.
BEYOND THIS MORNING...CWA CONTINUES TO BE ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF A
RIDGE AXIS OVER THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. MODELS INDICATE A
DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH IN NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT LATER THIS
MORNING/AFTERNOON. HRRR SUGGESTS MAIN IMPACT MAY BE ACROSS THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST CWA. BUT NAM/GFS ALSO SUGGEST THAT MAY BE SHOWERS
FURTHER EAST TOWARD THE BAY PERHAPS ALONG A LINGERING CONVERGENT
AXIS. EITHER WAY...WILL RAMP POPS BACK UP LATER IN THE
MORNING/AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CWA. FURTHER AWAY FROM INFLUENCE OF THE
MARINE LAYER...ANY THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE HIGHLANDS/CENTRAL
SHENANDOAH VALLEY/CENTRAL VIRGINIA FOOTHILLS COULD PRODUCE SOME
HAIL.
ACTIVITY SHOULD EXIT THE CWA THIS EVENING. MARINE LAYER IS LIKELY TO
PUSH BACK INLAND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. LOW STRATUS AND/OR FOG MAY
RESULT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
A LARGE BLOCKING DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO ENCOMPASS
THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH KINKS IN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND
THE WRN SIDE OF THE HIGH AND CONVERGENCE AREAS TO DEVELOP SOME
SHOWERS FROM THE CAROLINAS INTO THE MID-ATLC. ONE SUCH FEATURE WILL
A RELATIVE UPPER LOW CAUGHT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE UPPER RIDGE
/CENTERED OVER THE TIDEWATER REGION/. AS LOW LEVEL FLOW ROUNDS THE
WRN SIDE OF THE HIGH...BATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN WILL DRIFT NW TOWARD
THE BLUE RIDGE WED MRNG AND INTO THE AFTN HRS. BEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIP ACROSS THE SRN TIER COUNTIES ON WED...BUT AN OUTSIDE CHANCE
FOR A PORTION OF THE ACTIVITY TO DRIFT FURTHER NORTH BEFORE
DISSIPATING.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE OFFSHORE UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN GET REPOSITIONED OVERNIGHT WED
INTO THU...AS THE LARGE AND DEEP UPPER LOW OVER THE SRN PLAINS
BEGINS TO MOVE TOWARD THE EAST. A STRONG NRN STREAM UPPER JET
STATIONED EAST-TO-WEST OVER SRN CANADA ON THU WILL CAUSE THE SRN
PLAINS LOW TO BEGIN MOVING DUE EAST. THIS WON/T LAST LONG...AS THE
JET BEGINS TO PIVOT NW-SE...ALLOWING THE LOW TO DRIFT NEWD INTO THE
OHIO VLY AND CAUSING A FORCED RIDGE AXIS OVER THE APLCNS. THIS WILL
MEAN MORE WARMTH FOR THE ERN SEABOARD AND A RETURN TO NEAR 80 HIGHS
ON THU AND FRI FOR THE MID ATLC. EACH DAY MAY SEE SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS/TSTMS BUT VERY POORLY FORCED AND MAINLY A CONTINUING EFFECT
OF THE HIGH AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK CONVERGENCE.
A FAIRLY CONSISTENT FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND FROM LONG RANGE MEMBERS
THAT BEGIN THE TREK OF THE UPPER LOW INTO THE REGION ON SAT...MOVING
OVER THE MID-ATLC ON SUN AND OFF THE COAST BY EARLY MON. MOVEMENT OF
UPPER LOWS HOWEVER ARE TYPICALLY CHALLENGING BECAUSE THEY ARE
DEPENDENT ON THEIR TELECONNECTIONS W/ THE SYNOPTIC FEATURES THAT
SURROUND THEM. HOWEVER...THE PAST FEW DAYS OF MODEL RUNS HAVE TAKEN
THE UPPER LOW FAIRLY STEADILY OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND...LEADING
TO COOL AND WET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MID-ATLC SAT/SUN.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MARINE LAYER INFLUENCE IS LIKELY TO SUPPORT LOW CIGS IN STRATUS AND
POSSIBLY LOW VSBYS IN FOG THIS MORNING. DEGRADATION HAS BEEN A
LITTLE SLOWER THAN SOME PAST RECENT NIGHTS /SAVE FOR MRB WHICH HAS
ALREADY FOGGED UP AFTER LAST EVENING/S RAIN AND THEN BRIEF
CLEARING/...BUT THERE/S GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG NAM/GFS/HRRR/RUC IN AT
LEAST IFR AND POSSIBLY LIFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AND PERSISTING
THROUGH 14Z-15Z AT THE HUBS. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER AT CHO AND IF IT
WERE TO HAPPEN ONSET WOULD BE CLOSER TO SUNRISE. AFTER CONDITIONS
IMPROVE...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO THE AFTERNOON
ALTHOUGH IT/S DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT EXACTLY WHERE THEY WILL SET UP
SO NO EXPLICIT MENTION HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN TAFS ATTM. MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MORE MARINE LAYER STRATUS/FOG OCCURRING
TONIGHT. ONSET COULD BE A LITTLE SOONER THAN WHAT WE SEE EARLY
THIS MORNING.
OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP MOIST CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION ON
WED FOR ANOTHER DAY OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO
START THE DAY. THE HIGH WILL THEN BEGIN TO PUSH FURTHER OFF THE
COAST THU/FRI AND SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK
WEEK. PERIODS OF LIGHT ELY WINDS ON WED...THEN CHANGING TO SLY ON
THU AND SWLY ON FRI. MORE ACTIVITY WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND...AS
AN UPPER LOW DRIFTS ACROSS THE AREA SAT/SUN INTO EARLY MON.
&&
.MARINE...
THERE WILL BE FOG OVER/NEAR THE WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING THAT COULD
REDUCE TO VSBYS TO 1 NM OR LESS AT TIMES. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
EASTERLY FLOW AT 10 KT OR LESS TO PREVAIL TODAY/TONIGHT.
MARINE LAYER MAY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW VSBYS IN FOG
TONIGHT.
LIGHT WINDS CONTINUING THRU THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE OFF THE COAST SLOWLY FROM THU INTO FRI. AN UPPER LOW BRING MORE
SCATTERED RAIN FOR THE WEEKEND...AND PERIODS OF BREEZY CONDITIONS
BUT LOW-END SCA OR LESS.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BPP/GMS
NEAR TERM...BPP
SHORT TERM...GMS
LONG TERM...GMS
AVIATION...BPP/GMS
MARINE...BPP/GMS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
205 AM EDT TUE MAR 20 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 920 PM EDT MON MAR 19 2012
REMOVED PCPN CHANCES FOR ALL EXCEPT THE FAR WEST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
LACK OF A TRIGGERING AND FOCUSING MECHANISM IS THE REASON. 00Z KGRB
SOUNDING IS RELATIVELY STABLE AS WELL AND THIS AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT THE AREA. THE MORE UNSTABLE AIR WILL STAY OFF TO THE WEST
OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 438 PM EDT MON MAR 19 2012
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A VERY AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH
A DEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE ROCKIES
AND A RIDGE FROM THE GULF INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND NRN
ONTARIO RESULTING IN SSW FLOW FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS
VALLEY AND WRN GREAT LAKES. CAPPING EVIDENT ON MORNING SOUNDINGS AND
FCST SOUNDINGS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON HAS WEAKENED AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER SRN WI LIFTS TO THE NORTH. THE SHRTWV COMBINED WITH
MLCAPE VALUES INTO THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE SUPPORTED AN AREA OF
SHOWERS OVER SE WI AND MORE ISOLD SHRA/TSRA OVER NRN WI. ANOTHER
AREA OF SHRA/TSRA WAS LOCATED OVER NE IA INTO SE MN.
OTHERWISE...PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND AFTERNOON MIXING HAS AGAIN PUSHED
TEMPS AGAIN TO RECORD HIGHS INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S.
AS THE WI SHRTWV LIFTS TO THE NORTH EXPECT THE ISOLD CONVECTION OVER
NRN WI TO ALSO MOVE INTO SRN UPPER MI LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WITH COOLING LATER THIS EVENING...EXPECT THE PCPN TO
DIMINISH.
STRONGER SHORTWAVES LIFTING OUT OF THE NRN PLAINS INTO SASK AND
MANITOBA ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY FLATTEN THE RIDGE AND ALLOW THE
FRONT OVER THE ERN DAKOTAS TO SHIFT TO THE EAST. HOWEVER THE
STRONGER LARGE SCALE DYNAMICS WITH UPPER LEVEL DIV ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER JET MOVING INTO N ONTARIO WILL REMAIN WILL REMAIN
NORTHWEST OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH CONTINUED SSW MID LEVEL FLOW AND
THE VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE REGION...WEAK
SHORTWAVES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO TRIGGER SOME SCT/ISOLD SHRA/TSRA
INTO MAINLY THE WEST HALF OF UPPER MI. AS IS TYPICAL WITH WARM
SEASON CONVECTION...THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
TIMING/POSITION OF ANY SHRA/TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK
DISTURBANCES. SO...THE FCST CONTINUES TO CARRY CHANCE POPS LOWER END
CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD OVER THE WEST.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN RECORD TERRITORY FOR HIGH OVERNIGHT MINS AND
MAX READINGS TUESDAY WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND HIGHS REACHING THE MID
70S. WITH A FEW MORE CLOUDS OVER THE AREA...TEMPS MAY BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN TODAY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 438 PM EDT MON MAR 19 2012
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
OUR STAGNANT 500MB WEATHER PATTERN OF LATE...WITH THE HIGH AMPLITUDE
500MB RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION WILL BECOME
SUPPRESSED...BUT STILL OVERHEAD THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
TAKING A LOOK CLOSER TO THE SFC...THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT
STRETCHING FROM THE MAIN SFC LOWS ACROSS FAR NE MANITOBA AND IA WILL
SHIFT OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA BY 21-00Z WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...WHILE CONTINUING TO WEAKEN/WASH OUT TO OUR EAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR. THE ENTIRE SYSTEM LOOKS TO HAVE SLOWED DOWN A BIT MORE. IT
WILL HAVE ASSISTANCE FROM THE EXITING 300MB JET...BUT THIS WILL
MAINLY BE ACROSS W TO NORTH CENTRAL UPPER MI...AND LAKE SUPERIOR.
DID NOT GO WITH HIGH POPS YET...DUE TO THE LOW PROBABILITY AND
DIMINISHED AMOUNTS OF PRECIP EXPECTED. BEHIND THE FRONT...WHILE A
HUGE COOL DOWN IS NOT EXPECTED...850MB TEMPS WILL STILL FALL FROM
AROUND 11C TO NEAR 8C BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON ON LIGHT WINDS.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
THE 500MB LOW...CURRENTLY ORGANIZING ACROSS THE 4-CORNERS REGION
TODAY WILL BE OVER N TX AT 00Z THURSDAY. EXPECT THIS CUT OFF LOW TO
EJECT NORTHWARD AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...PUSHING ACROSS E KS FRIDAY
MORNING...AND MO BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
JUST HOW MUCH OF AN INFLUENCE THIS TRACK HAS ON OUR WEATHER IS STILL
IN QUESTION...AS THE 500MB LOW SLIPS EASTWARD TO THE LOWER OH VALLEY
SATURDAY /AND SFC LOW MOVES AS FAR NORTH AS SCENTRAL WI AT 00Z
SATURDAY/...BEFORE FURTHER EXITING EASTWARD AND WEAKENING SUNDAY
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...WITH A REBOUNDING RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE
PLAINS AND UPPER GREAT LAKES. STILL HAVE A CHANCE OF RAIN FRIDAY
MORNING THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY...BUT WILL WAIT TO SEE ON MUCH
NEEDED AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE.
EVEN WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING BACK ACROSS THE CWA...NE WINDS WILL
PULL COOLER AIR DOWN FROM ONTARIO. THE 19/00Z RUN OF THE ECMWF EVEN
INDICATES 850MB TEMPS OVER THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW AROUND 0C AT 06Z
SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THE WARMER 19/06Z RUN OF THE GFS IS STILL AROUND
4C. EITHER WAY...LOOK FOR WAA ON WEAK S-SW WINDS AGAIN BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 204 AM EDT TUE MAR 20 2012
CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD AT CMX AND IWD. S-SE
WINDS OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN TONIGHT MAY CAUSE VSBYS AT SAW TO DROP TO
MVFR LATE TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW THOUGH AS PAST
SEVERAL NIGHTS HAVE SEEN NO FOG. USUALLY WHEN THE WIND IS SOUTH AND
THERE IS FOG IN LAKE MICHIGAN AND IN ESCANABA...CIGS AND VIS COME
DOWN AT SAW. LLWS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL SITES OVERNIGHT. DID PUT IN
CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE TUE AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER IWD AND CMX AS
FRONTAL BAND GETS CLOSER TO THAT AREA. ALSO PLACED -SHRA IN IWD TAF
EARLY IN THE DAY FOR PRECIP MOVING NORTHWARD OUT OF CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN WI. FURTHER EAST...CONFIDENCE IN SEEING SHOWERS IS LOWER AND
DID NOT INCLUDE AT THIS TIME. FRONT GETS NEAR THE AREA. SAW BEING
FURTHER EAST WILL SEE LLWS TUE NIGHT AS WELL. &&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 438 PM EDT MON MAR 19 2012
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF STRONG LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS. DUE TO THE SUMMER TYPE NATURE OF THE
SYSTEM...WINDS AS THE SURFACE OF THE LAKE REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK DUE TO
THE MARINE LAYER...ALTHOUGH WINDS ABOVE THE MARINE LAYER ARE MUCH
STRONGER. IN ADDITION...DESPITE THE SOUTHERLY SYNOPTIC FLOW...WINDS
ACROSS THE WEST EAST OR NORTHEASTERLY AS IS TYPICAL DURING THE
SPRING WITH LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST. EXPECT WINDS TO TURN WESTERLY
WED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...THEN ONCE AGAIN SOUTHERLY BY THE WEEKEND
AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS. OTHER THAN
TODAY...EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN BELOW 30 KT THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LMZ248-250.
&&
$$
UPDATE...07
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREAT FALLS MT
1055 PM MDT MON MAR 19 2012
UPDATE TO AVIATION
.UPDATE...
WINTER STORM SYSTEM MOVING NORTH DEEPER INTO SASKATCHEWAN THIS
EVENING WITH DRIER AIR STARTING TO WORK INTO THE REGION. ENDED THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY EARLY WITH WINDS DROPPING OFF AND WITH THE
SNOW ENDING ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA.
CURRENT RUC13 SHOWING DECENT H700 WINDS STARTING TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ROCKY MTN FRONT TONIGHT INTO TUES...WITH THESE WINDS
STAYING UP ACROSS FRONT RANGE AND OUT INTO THE PLAINS DO NOT THINK
THAT TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT TOO MUCH EVEN WITH SOME CLEARING
EXPECTED. SHELTERED AREAS WILL THOUGH...AND THIS WILL MEAN THAT
VALLEY LOCATIONS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE STATE MAY RAD
COOL THEMSELVES INTO SINGLE DIGITS OR EVEN WELL BELOW ZERO IF
ENOUGH CLEARING DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT WITH THE LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED
IN THAT PART OF THE TREASURE STATE. DUE TO THE RECENT MOISTURE AND
THE CLEARING COUPLED WITH LIGHT WINDS...PATCHY FOG MAYBE POSSIBLE
ACROSS VALLEYS OF SW MONTANA WITH THE RUC12 HIGHLIGHTING THIS
THREAT CLOSER TO WYS AND VALLEYS JUST TO THE WEST ACROSS PORTIONS
OF MADISON COUNTY. --SCHOTT
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 645 PM MDT MON MAR 19 2012/
.UPDATE...
AFTER CALLS TO LOCAL OFFICIALS ACROSS THE BLIZZARD WARNING
AREA...CONDITIONS HAVE STARTED TO DRAMATICALLY IMPROVE. WITH THIS
SAID...LOCAL OFFICIAL REPORT THAT POWER IS STILL OUT IN MANY
AREAS...ESPECIALLY AROUND BLAINE COUNTY. BLOWING AND DRIFTING WILL
BE A MAJOR CONCERN AS THE LAST OF THE SNOW WRAPS UP ACROSS BLAINE
AND FERGUS COUNTY THIS EVENING. BLAINE COUNTY SHERIFF REPORTS
SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING ISSUES ACROSS THE COUNTY. CANCELLED
OR ENDED ALL THE BLIZZARD WARNINGS BUT HAVE ADDED A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR BLAINE AND FERGUS COUNTY WHERE BOTH LIGHT SNOW AND
BLOWING AND DRIFTING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. --SCHOTT
&&
.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0455Z.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER THE PLAINS WILL REMAIN
BREEZY ENOUGH OVERNIGHT (10 TO 20 KT) TO LIKELY PREVENT FOG
FORMATION AT THE PLAINS TERMINALS (KCTB KHVR KGTF KLWT)...BUT ANY
DROP-OFF IN WINDS COULD CAUSE PATCHY FOG TO FORM. WINDS MAY DROP
OFF ENOUGH IN THE SOUTHWEST MONTANA VALLEYS (KHLN KBZN) TO ALLOW
PATCHY FOG TO FORM...BUT SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID CLOUDS MAY PREVENT
WIDESPREAD FORMATION. WILL MENTION VCFG FOR NOW AND MONITOR THE
SITUATION. A DISTURBANCE IN THE DEVELOPING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
BRING INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS WITH MOUNTAIN TOP OBSCURING
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA ON TUESDAY...AS WELL AS GUSTY WESTERLY
WINDS. WINDS ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT COULD GUST INTO THE 55
TO 65 KT RANGE DURING THE DAY...WITH MOSTLY GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 KT
FARTHER OUT ONTO THE PLAINS. COULSTON
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 245 PM MDT MON MAR 19 2012/
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...LARGE WINTER WEATHER
SYSTEM SHOWING SOME INITIAL SIGNS OF EASING UP AS THE CLOSED UPPER
LOW PRESSURE CENTER DRIFTS NORTH INTO SRN SASKATCHEWAN. WAS ABLE
TO CANCEL EARLIER WARNINGS/ADVISORIES OVER THE ROCKY MTN FRONT AND
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MT...BUT CURRENT BLIZZARD AND WINTER STORM
WARNINGS OVER CENTRAL AND HILINE COUNTIES REMAIN IN EFFECT INTO
THIS EVE. STILL EXPECT THE ENTIRE SYSTEM TO EXIT OUR AREA LATER
TONIGHT...WITH PROGRESSIVELY IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM WEST TO
EAST. SOME CONCERN THAT OVERNIGHT LOWS...MAINLY UPPER TEENS OVER
PLAINS/VALLEYS...MAY DROP FURTHER IF SKIES TOTALLY CLEAR OVER THE
NEW SNOW COVER. BUT BREEZY WINDS MAY OFFSET SOME OF THE
COOLING...FOLLOWING SHIFTS WILL GIVE IT A LOOK AND ADJUST IF
NEEDED. MUCH IMPROVED CONDITIONS TOMORROW AS WEAK RIDGING AND
WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. FORECAST MODELS
HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN INDICATING POSSIBILITY OF HIGH WINDS ALONG
THE ROCKY MTN FRONT BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT...SO HAVE UPGRADED TO
WATCH FOR THE FRONT AND ERN GLACIER COUNTY TO A WARNING BEGINNING
AT MIDNIGHT. HAVE ALSO ADDED A NEW WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE
ROCKY MTN FRONT STARTING NOON TOMORROW. PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL
STREAM ACROSS WESTERN MT AND BANK UP AGAINST THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE...BUT MOISTURE WILL NOT MAKE IT TOO FAR EAST GIVEN THE
DRYING DOWNSLOPE FLOW OF THE HIGH WINDS IN THE SAME LOCATION. HAVE
DECREASED HIGH TEMPS FOR TUES A FEW DEGREES TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
SNOW COVER WITH LOW/MID 40S EXPECTED. DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO
WED...THOUGH PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ALONG THE ROCKY
MTN FRONT. WITH LESS SNOW COVER BY THEN...EXPECT WED MAX TEMPS TO
REACH THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S. WARANAUSKAS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A
PROGRESSIVE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH PACIFIC MOISTURE EXPECTED ALONG
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA REMAINS DRY.
A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY
THOUGH MODELS HAVE VERY LITTLE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT.
THERE MAY BE SOME SHOWERS ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND ALONG
THE HI-LINE SO HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS IN THESE
AREAS. BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY BEFORE
NEXT STORM SYSTEM ENTERS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SHORTWAVE ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH MAIN TROUGH WILL BRING INCREASED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TO NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND HAVE RAISED
POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE CATEGORY. SOUTHWEST MONTANA WILL
LIKELY REMAIN DRY AS THE MAIN ENERGY STAYS FARTHER NORTH. MODELS ARE
INCONSISTENT DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY REGARDING THE TREND OF NEXT SYSTEM. THE GFS IS
THE WETTER SOLUTION AS IT BRINGS ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY INTO
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA. THE ECMWF IS CONSIDERABLY DRIER SO
HAVE NOT FAVORED ONE SOLUTION OVER THE OTHER AND ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS OVER THE PLAINS AND CHANCE POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS FOR NEXT
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES THROUGH THE PERIOD. MLV
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF 23 45 30 53 / 10 10 10 10
CTB 21 44 29 46 / 10 10 10 10
HLN 22 44 30 52 / 10 10 10 10
BZN 17 41 26 52 / 10 10 10 10
WEY -5 29 16 40 / 40 30 30 30
DLN 13 39 26 47 / 10 20 20 10
HVR 19 43 27 49 / 10 10 10 0
LWT 16 40 28 49 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT MDT TUESDAY
NIGHT EASTERN GLACIER...NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT...SOUTHERN
ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TUESDAY TO NOON MDT WEDNESDAY
FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 5000 FEET FOR NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN
FRONT...SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...WARANAUSKAS/SCHOTT
LONG TERM...BLANK/MLV
AVIATION...COULSTON
WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
344 AM CDT TUE MAR 20 2012
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY
344 AM CDT TUE MAR 20 2012
WELCOME TO SPRING 2012...WHICH OCCURRED AT 1214 AM THIS MORNING. MAIN
CONCERNS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WILL BE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WITH ALONG WITH CONTINUED RECORD-BREAKING WARMTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
VERY IMPRESSIVE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RUC ANALYSIS THIS MORNING WITH A
BROAD/DEEP TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN/INTERMOUNTAIN REGION OF THE CONUS
AND HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. STRONG WARM/MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE IN THE MID SECTION OF THE CONUS/LOCAL UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WA
OVER EASTERN SASKATCHEWAN CANADA WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH
THROUGH WESTERN MN AND THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AN EMBEDDED
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE PRODUCED A WAVE OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE EVENING HOURS. CURRENT
RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY SHOWER ACTIVITY
STREAMING NORTHWARD FROM NORTHERN MO INTO WESTERN WI/EASTERN MN.
20.00Z NCEP MODEL SUITE AND THE 19.21Z SREF IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
HANDLING OF THE UPPER LEVEL/SURFACE PATTERN THROUGH THE PERIOD.
FOR TODAY INTO THIS EVENING...NO CHANGE IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WITH
STRONG DEEP/MOIST SOUTHERLY FETCH CONTINUING ACROSS THE AREA. THE
COLD FRONT OVER WESTERN MN WILL GET PULLED SLIGHTLY EAST AND EXTEND
FROM THE ARROWHEAD OF MN INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MN/WESTERN IA BY THIS
AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL
PRODUCE SOME UPSTREAM RIDGING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION...TOWARD
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER REGION. THIS WILL ACT TO SHIFT SHRA/TS
CHANCES WESTWARD SOME TODAY. THIS WILL ALSO SET UP A RATHER STRONG
FRONTOGENETIC ZONE ALONG THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED DUE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING FROM EAST TO WEST. IN
ADDITION...WILL HAVE UPPER LEVEL JET CIRCULATION INFLUENCING THE
FRONTOGENESIS AS WELL. HARD TO PINPOINT WHERE EXACTLY THIS
FRONTOGENETIC FORCED PRECIPITATION BAND WILL SET UP. FOR NOW...IT
APPEARS IT WILL SET UP GENERALLY FROM NORTHWEST WI INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL MN...WITH AREAS NORTHWEST OF LAKE CITY TO ROCHESTER MN AND
CHARLES CITY IA BEING ON THE EASTERN FRINGES. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
SEVERE POTENTIAL AS WELL. NAM DEPICTS 700-1000J/KG 0-1KM CAPE
POTENTIALLY GETTING INGESTED INTO THIS FRONTOGENETIC CIRCULATION
WHILE 0-3KM BULK SHEAR REMAINS STRONG IN THE 40-55KT RANGE. SIMILAR
TO WHAT HAPPENED MONDAY EVENING...MAY SEE A FEW SEVERE LINE SEGMENTS
IF THEY CAN ORIENT THEMSELVES ORTHOGONALLY TO THIS SHEAR.
OTHERWISE...WILL HAVE TO WATCH ALSO FOR HEAVIER RAINFALL WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THE 1-1.5 INCH RANGE. LOOK FOR A
GENERAL DECREASE IN INTENSITY OF PRECIPITATION BY MIDNIGHT AS THE
INSTABILITY DECREASES AND FRONTOGENETIC FORCING EASES UP.
MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES WESTWARD OVER THE AREA
ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT DYING ACROSS WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR/NORTHWEST WI. THERE IS A CHANCE OUR AREA COULD BE VOID OF
ANY PRECIPITATION AS THE 20.00Z GEM DEPICTS. FOR NOW...HAVE DIMINISHED
POPS SOME BASED ON THIS SIGNAL. NAM STILL DEPICTING 0-1KM ML CAPE IN
THE 500-800J/KG RANGE...SO DIDN`T WANT TO REMOVE POPS COMPLETELY.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...WILL BE WATCHING THE CLOSED LOW
MOVE OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MODELS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT IN PUSHING A GOOD CONVEYOR BELT/MOISTURE PLUME INTO
THE AREA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN
THE 1.25-1.5 INCH RANGE BUT CAPE LOOKS RATHER LIMITED WITH INCREASING
CLOUD COVER. WITH THIS IN MIND...WENT WITH SHRA LIKELY WITH ISOLATED
THUNDER. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON PRECIPITATION RATES WITH THIS
GOOD MOISTURE FETCH ON THURSDAY.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
344 AM CDT TUE MAR 20 2012
20.00Z GFS/ECMWF IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
BOTH MODELS CONTINUE TO LIFT THE CLOSED LOW FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
INTO MISSOURI THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO IL ON FRIDAY. THIS CONTINUES
TO PRODUCE A DECENT BAND OF MAINLY SHRA THURSDAY ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT AND SHRA/ISOLD THUNDER DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. SHRA
CHANCES WILL LINGER THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE AREA REMAINS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE CLOSED LOW MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS IL. RIDGE BUILDS IN
WITH FULL FORCE ON SUNDAY FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. MODELS THEN SHOW
THE POSSIBILITY OF WARM FRONTAL SHRA/TS GOING INTO MONDAY. THIS
WOULD BE MAINLY NORTH OF I-94. OTHERWISE...LOOKS LIKE NO END IN
SIGHT FOR WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION...THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY
1115 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW WHEN IT COMES TO CIGS AND PCPN CHANCES OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WITH MOIST AIRMASS AND SMALL FEATURES MAKING IT
QUITE CHALLENGING. THE MODELS ARE ALSO HAVING A VERY DIFFICULT TIME
IN RELATION TO CIG HEIGHTS DUE TO THE UNCOMMONLY MOIST MID MARCH
AIR.
LATEST HRRR HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THE ONGOING CONVECTION...AND WOULD
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY SHOWERS ACROSS KRST/KLSE THROUGH ABOUT
11Z. KLSE THEN APPEARS TO HAVE A BETTER SHOT OF STAYING DRY FOR THE
REST OF THE DAY. KRST WILL BE CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH
THE GEM/NAM/GFS SUGGESTING ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY COULD SPARK MORE
SHOWERS AT KRST FOR LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON. WILL GO WITH VCSH FOR
NOW.
AS FOR CIGS...WILL HOLD WITH VFR FOR NOW...ALTHOUGH ANY THUNDERSTORM
WILL BE CAPABLE OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS.
A SLACKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ON TUE SHOULD RESULT IN A LESS
WINDY DAY. THERE COULD STILL BE SOME AFTERNOON GUSTS...BUT MORE IN
THE 20 MPH RANGE RATHER THAN 30 OF RECENT DAYS.
&&
.CLIMATE...THIS WEEK
344 AM CDT TUE MAR 20 2012
ANOTHER RECORD HIGH FOR ROCHESTER MN SET MONDAY MARCH 19 WITH THE
THERMOMETER TOPPING OFF AT 77 DEGREES. THIS SHATTERS THE OLD RECORD
OF 69 DEGREES SET WAY BACK IN 1910. LA CROSSE CAME CLOSE TODAY BUT
MISSED IT BY ONE DEGREE...TOPPING OFF AT 75 DEGREES. THE RECORD OF
76 DEGREES SET IN 1921 STILL STANDS. LOOKS LIKE THE PREDICTED HIGH
OF 74 DEGREES TODAY AT LA CROSSE WI WILL BE ONE FOR THE RECORD BOOKS
WHILE THE PREDICTED HIGH OF 70 AT ROCHESTER MN SHOULD KEEP THE OLD
RECORD SET IN 1910 SAFE. ADDITIONAL HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS LOOK
POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT THEN CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TO PULL TEMPERATURES DOWN SOME THURSDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. HOWEVER...HIGHS AND LOWS WILL REMAIN SOME 20-25 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.
FOR A LIST OF WHAT HAS OCCURRED REGARDING RECORDS THUS FAR AS
WELL AS THOSE THAT COULD FALL IN THE DAYS TO COME...PLEASE SEE THE
TOP NEWS STORY ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
344 AM CDT TUE MAR 20 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION.....RIECK
CLIMATE......DAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1115 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
326 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012
THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM IS WITH THE RAIN/THUNDER CHANCES
THROUGH THE WEEK ALONG WITH HOW LONG THE RECORD BREAKING
TEMPERATURES CAN HANG ON FOR.
THE BROAD...DEEP AND STACKED TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
US HAS BEGUN TO EMERGE FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS AS IT
SPLITS INTO TWO SYSTEMS. THE NORTHERN STREAM CLOSED LOW IS CURRENTLY
LIFTING NORTH THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA WHILE THE SOUTHERN STREAM
TROUGH IS PROPAGATING EAST ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. STRONG
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS UP THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THIS LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES
TO ADVECT WARM...MOIST AIR UP FROM THE GULF. AS A RESULT OF ALL
THIS MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH...CLOUD COVER HAS FILLED IN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THOUGH THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW BREAKS HERE
AND THERE.
THE FIRST WAVE OF CONVECTION CAME THROUGH THIS MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON AND HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST WITH A SECOND BAND OF
CONVECTION OCCURRING ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA
AS THE RESULT OF A OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION
OUT WEST. THE NEXT WAVE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS
CENTRAL IOWA/MINNESOTA AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ASSOCIATED
WITH THE CLOSED LOW OVER MONTANA LIFTS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING THIS CLUSTER OF CONVECTION
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THIS AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR ANY
PRECIPITATION FALLING WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI. WITH TEMPERATURES
REACHING THE MID 70S AND DEW POINTS STILL IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S...SURFACE BASED CAPE HAS CLIMBED TO THE 500-1500 J/KG RANGE
WHICH WILL HELP FUEL THIS CONVECTION PUSHING NORTH INTO THE
REGION THIS EVENING. 0-6KM BULK WIND SHEAR STILL LOOKS WEAK AND
UNIDIRECTIONAL...BUT THERE IS SOME 0-3KM WIND SHEAR WITH SOUTHEAST
SURFACE WINDS VEERING TO THE 30-40KT LOW LEVEL JET. BY THE TIME
THIS CONVECTION REACHES THE REGION IT SHOULD BE DIMINISHING IN
INTENSITY WITH ANY CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS FURTHER TO THE WEST
ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR WHERE THE FORCING WILL BE
DEEPER DUE TO THE TROUGH. THE 19.12Z MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW THIS
BAND OF CONVECTION COMING ACROSS MINNESOTA AND IOWA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AND WEAKENING AS IT REACHES THE RIVER...WHICH SEEMS
PLAUSIBLE GIVEN THE NORTHWARD TRAJECTORY OF THE FORCING.
AS THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH PROPAGATES EAST ACROSS CENTRAL
CANADA TOWARD HUDSON BAY...IT WILL OCCLUDE THE SURFACE LOW OVER
CENTRAL MANITOBA WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS
MINNESOTA AND THE WESTERN FLANK OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY TUESDAY. THIS
FRONT WILL THEN STALL OUT ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN TO CENTRAL
IOWA AS A RESULT OF THE CUT OFF LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
HOLDING IT UP. THIS FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS OF ANY SHOWERS/STORMS
THROUGH MID WEEK WITH THE HIGHER CHANCES BEING ALONG THE NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN TO SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND CENTRAL IOWA CORRIDOR. WHILE
SOME THUNDER WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE...INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN
RATHER WEAK AT JUST A FEW HUNDRED J/KG...THOUGH PREVIOUS CAPE
FORECASTS FOR TODAY WERE MUCH LOWER DUE TO THE LOWER FORECAST
TEMPERATURES. CONFIDENCE IS STILL NOT VERY HIGH ON THE TIMING OF
WHEN THE BETTER CHANCES WILL BE AFTER TONIGHT GIVEN THE WEAK
FORCING AND BROAD AREA OF UNSTABLE AIR SOUTH OF THE FRONT. GOING
INTO THURSDAY...THE CUT OFF LOW IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL START
TO MEANDER NORTHWARD AND PROVIDE SOME BETTER LIFT FROM THE SOUTH.
TEMPERATURE-WISE...MUCH OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM
SECTOR THOUGH THE CORE OF THE WARMEST 850MB AIR WILL START GOING
EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES. STILL...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MID WEEK ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION WITH MORE
RECORDS LIKELY TO BE BROKEN THROUGH THURSDAY. SEE THE CLIMATE AFD
FOR FURTHER DETAILS ON THE RECORD BREAKING STRETCH.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
326 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012
FORECAST PROBLEM DURING THIS PERIOD IS THE CURRENT SWRN U.S. LOW AS
IT CLOSES OFF AND NEARLY CUTS OFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW...AND HOW IT
LIFTS EASTWARD DURING THE PERIOD. LATEST TREND IN THE GFS 19.06Z AND
19.12Z RUNS IS TO SHIFT THE LOW NE AND CLOSER TO THE GREAT LAKES FOR
A MORE SHOWERY SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THE 19.12Z GEM AND ECMWF LOW
TRACK TREND IS FURTHER SOUTH. THIS WOULD MEAN A DRIER WEEKEND AND
MORE LIKELY COOLER DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW. 19.12Z
GEM IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE COLD ADVECTION AS IT HAS A
STRONGER NRN SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS SRN CANADA SATURDAY...WITH
STRONG COLD ADVECTION INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES. 19.12Z 850 MB
TEMPERATURES DROP TO NEAR 0C IN THE GEM FOR SATURDAY...BUT THIS IS
THE OUTLIER. THE AREA WOULD LIKELY SEE 40S AND LOW 50S SATURDAY PER
THE GEM SOLUTION. THE 19.12Z ECMWF HAS A SIMILAR SHORTWAVE TRAVELING
ACROSS RN CANADA AND COLD AIR ADVECTION...BUT SLOWER/LESS
AGGRESSIVE/FURTHER EAST...WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO NEAR
6C SUNDAY. THE 19.12Z GFS IS EVEN FURTHER NE AND HAS NO COLD AIR
ADVECTION...AS IS THE 19.12Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN.
BOTTOM LINE IS THERE IS STILL A WIDE SPECTRUM OF OUTCOMES THIS
WEEKEND. HAVE GONE WITH THE CONSENSUS FORECAST FOR NOW...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOWER AND FEEL SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WEATHER WOULD TEND
TO GO COOLER THAN CURRENT FORECAST...AND WE MAY SEE MORE SHOWERS
WITH THE UNPREDICTABLE...WEAKLY FORCED LOW TRACK /IT COULD BE SLOWER
MOVING EAST/. WOULD THINK A GRADIENT IN TEMPERATURES WOULD BE
PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA AS THAT FRONT ALIGNS NW-SE BY SUNDAY AT THE
LATEST. STILL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...
1115 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW WHEN IT COMES TO CIGS AND PCPN CHANCES OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WITH MOIST AIRMASS AND SMALL FEATURES MAKING IT
QUITE CHALLENGING. THE MODELS ARE ALSO HAVING A VERY DIFFICULT TIME
IN RELATION TO CIG HEIGHTS DUE TO THE UNCOMMONLY MOIST MID MARCH
AIR.
LATEST HRRR HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THE ONGOING CONVECTION...AND WOULD
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY SHOWERS ACROSS KRST/KLSE THROUGH ABOUT
11Z. KLSE THEN APPEARS TO HAVE A BETTER SHOT OF STAYING DRY FOR THE
REST OF THE DAY. KRST WILL BE CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH
THE GEM/NAM/GFS SUGGESTING ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY COULD SPARK MORE
SHOWERS AT KRST FOR LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON. WILL GO WITH VCSH FOR
NOW.
AS FOR CIGS...WILL HOLD WITH VFR FOR NOW...ALTHOUGH ANY THUNDERSTORM
WILL BE CAPABLE OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS.
A SLACKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ON TUE SHOULD RESULT IN A LESS
WINDY DAY. THERE COULD STILL BE SOME AFTERNOON GUSTS...BUT MORE IN
THE 20 MPH RANGE RATHER THAN 30 OF RECENT DAYS.
&&
.CLIMATE...THIS WEEK
326 PM CDT MON MAR 18 2012
THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE AT ROCHESTER WAS ONCE AGAIN BROKEN
TODAY...BUT NOT YET AT LA CROSSE. CHECK RER STATEMENTS LATER TODAY
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION REGARDING ANY NEW RECORDS. ADDITIONAL
HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS LOOK POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...THOUGH IT WILL MAINLY DEPEND ON CLOUD COVER AND WHETHER ANY
RAIN SHOWERS OCCUR.
HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORDS WILL LIKELY BE BROKEN THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH FORECAST LOWS ONLY TO DROP INTO THE LOW 50S
WITH MANY OF THE RECORDS IN THE 40S.
FOR A LIST OF WHAT HAS OCCURRED REGARDING RECORDS THUS FAR AS
WELL AS THOSE THAT COULD FALL IN THE DAYS TO COME...PLEASE SEE THE
TOP NEWS STORY ON OUR WEBSITE ON THE UNSEASONABLY WARM MARCH.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
326 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HALBACH
LONG TERM....BAUMGARDT
AVIATION.....RIECK
CLIMATE......HALBACH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
743 AM EDT TUE MAR 20 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT OVER NEW ENGLAND DISSIPATES JUST TO THE NORTH
OF THE TRI-STATE AREA THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
OFFSHORE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH MID WEEK. A COLD FRONT
THEN PUSHES TO OUR SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A SURFACE LOW APPROACHES THE
AREA FROM THE WEST BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
OVERALL...JET STREAM WELL NORTH OF THE REGION WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
ACROSS THE REGION. WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND BULK OF
ASSOCIATED PVA SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE WILL BE ESTABLISHED WELL OFFSHORE WITH DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED. THIS WILL KEEP A CONTINUED LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW TODAY.
DENSE FOG ROLLING INTO THE AREA WITH LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION.
ALL COASTAL AREAS ARE IN THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM.
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH THE ENDING TIME AND RUC BUFKIT FOR
EXAMPLE SHOWS A MUCH LONGER DURATION FOR COASTAL SITES WITH
THICKENING OF STRATUS THROUGH THE DAY. FORECAST THINKING RIGHT NOW
IS THAT FOG BECOMES LESS DENSE WITH LOWER STRATUS REMAINING BY LATE
MORNING...AND DECREASING THIS AFTERNOON.
THERE IS AN INVERSION ABOVE THE SURFACE UP TO AROUND 950 MB. LIGHT
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW HELPS TRAP MOISTURE BENEATH THIS INVERSION.
GREATER NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS HAVE SHOWN A SHARP DOWNWARD TREND
TO VISIBILITIES DOWN TO QUARTER MILE OR LESS.
WE START TO MIX OUT TOWARDS AFTERNOON ONCE INVERSION BREAKS. THIS
WOULD PROMOTE INCREASED DAYTIME WARMTH AS CLOUD COVER DECREASES.
THIS TIMING WILL BE CRUCIAL FOR MAX TEMP FORECAST TODAY...POTENTIALLY
HIGHER OR LOWER DEPENDING ON WHEN EXACTLY THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
SCATTER OUT. TOOK A MAV/MET BLEND BUT MADE SLIGHTLY COOLER ALONG
THE COAST...WHERE STRATUS/FOG WILL BE PRESENT IN THE MORNING WITH
LESS DIURNAL WARMING THAN FARTHER INTERIOR. CURRENT FORECAST HAS
LOWER 70S FOR HIGHS ACROSS INTERIOR AND MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID
60S NEAR THE COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SAME SCENARIO SETS UP FOR TONIGHT WITH MILD LOWS EXPECTED.
CONTINUED DRY WEATHER. FEATURES ALOFT REMAIN NEARLY THE SAME.
AGAIN A MAV/MET BLEND WAS USED FOR LOW TEMPERATURES. WITH FLOW
TURNING MORE SOUTHERLY...THINK THAT FOG WILL BE KEPT AT PATCHY
COVERAGE OUTSIDE OF THE CITY FORMING AS A RESULT OF ADVECTION OF
LOW LEVEL WARMER AIR TOWARDS THE COAST AND SOME RADIATIONAL
COOLING INLAND. THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY
BUT EXPECT A WARMER DAY WITH THE MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH A
QUICKER SCATTERING OUT OF LOW CONDITIONS. LESS REMARKABLE
INCREASE IN WARMTH FOR THE COAST WITH MARITIME INFLUENCE. HIGHS
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THOSE OF TUESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
DEEP LAYER RIDGING ANCHORED OVER THE EAST COAST WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL
ABOVE NORMAL.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS SOUTH...MORE OF A
SOUTHWEST FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL DEVELOP. THESE RELATIVELY HIGHER
WINDS WITH A MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT SHOULD REDUCE THE FOG POTENTIAL
FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD INTO THURSDAY MORNING. FOR NOW...WILL
CONTINUE TO CARRY PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS FALL
INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S.
A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY. THE
FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY...AND WITH DECENT MIXING TEMPERATURES
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE CLOSE TO 20 DEGREE ABOVE NORMAL. IN
ADDITION...SOME OF OUR CLIMATE STATIONS WILL COME CLOSE TO OR BREAK
THEIR RESPECTIVE RECORDS. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 70S
TO NEAR 80 ACROSS THE INTERIOR...AND UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S CLOSER
TO THE COAST. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AND ISOLATED THUNDER FOR LATE
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH COLD FRONT PASSAGE...ALTHOUGH
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AT BEST.
DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW SETS UP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN ON FRIDAY...ALLOWING A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO APPROACH ON SATURDAY AND IMPACT THE REGION SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE GRIDS LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH POPS CONTINUING
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION. THERE
MAY BE SOME LEFT OVER SHOWERS MONDAY MORNING AS THE LOW
DEPARTS...HOWEVER BY AFTERNOON...DRIER WEATHER WILL BE WORKING BACK
INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL...BUT NOT AS WARM AS IT HAS BEEN THIS WEEK. HIGHS ONLY IN THE
50S AND LOWER 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH TOMORROW.
MAINLY LIFR VIS AND CIG THIS MORNING...WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE
THE CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN IMPROVING AFTER 15Z. MAY SEE IFR
CONDITIONS LINGER THROUGH 17Z...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH AT THIS
TIME TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY...WITH
VFR FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
FOR TONIGHT...THINKING WE MAY SEE A REPEAT OF THIS PAST NIGHT.
HOWEVER...AGAIN CONFIDENCE LEVEL NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO BRING
CONDITIONS DOWN TO LIFR SO WILL KEEP IFR VIS AND CIGS FOR NOW.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY BETWEEN 5 AND
10 KTS FOR THE DAY. EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
AGAIN TONIGHT...ENABLING THE FOG DEVELOPMENT THAT WILL RESULT IN
THE DIMINISHED VIS.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: POSSIBLE LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 14Z.
AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED IF IFR VIS/CIGS REMAIN.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS YELLOW...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 4-6SM OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: POSSIBLE LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 15Z.
AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED IF IFR VIS/CIGS REMAIN.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: POSSIBLE LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 14Z.
AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED IF IFR VIS/CIGS REMAIN.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: POSSIBLE LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 14Z.
AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED IF IFR VIS/CIGS REMAIN.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: POSSIBLE LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 15Z.
AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED IF IFR VIS/CIGS REMAIN.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: POSSIBLE LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 14Z.
AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED IF IFR VIS/CIGS REMAIN.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WED...IFR STRATUS/FOG POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING (LOW CONFIDENCE)...THEN
VFR.
.THU-FRI...VFR.
.SAT...MARGINAL VFR CIG.
&&
.MARINE...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ALL THE
WATERS. WITH DOMINANT RIDGING ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE...SHOULD SEE SUB SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE. PATCHY FOG
AGAIN TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WIND GUSTS WILL LIKELY INCREASE BUT REMAIN SUB
SCA LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE THIS WEEKEND AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE AREA WATERS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CTZ009>012.
NY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ071>075-
078>081-176>179.
NJ...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ006-
104>108.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ330-335-
338-340-345-350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/JM
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...SEARS
MARINE...BC/JM
HYDROLOGY...BC/JM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
718 AM EDT TUE MAR 20 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT OVER NEW ENGLAND DISSIPATES JUST TO THE NORTH
OF THE TRI-STATE AREA THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
OFFSHORE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH MID WEEK. A COLD FRONT
THEN PUSHES TO OUR SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A SURFACE LOW APPROACHES THE
AREA FROM THE WEST BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
OVERALL...JET STREAM WELL NORTH OF THE REGION WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
ACROSS THE REGION. WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND BULK OF
ASSOCIATED PVA SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE WILL BE ESTABLISHED WELL OFFSHORE WITH DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED. THIS WILL KEEP A CONTINUED LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW TODAY.
DENSE FOG ROLLING INTO THE AREA WITH LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION.
ALL COASTAL AREAS ARE IN THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM.
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH THE ENDING TIME AND RUC BUFKIT FOR
EXAMPLE SHOWS A MUCH LONGER DURATION FOR COASTAL SITES WITH
THICKENING OF STRATUS THROUGH THE DAY. FORECAST THINKING RIGHT NOW
IS THAT FOG BECOMES LESS DENSE WITH LOWER STRATUS REMAINING BY LATE
MORNING...AND DECREASING THIS AFTERNOON.
THERE IS AN INVERSION ABOVE THE SURFACE UP TO AROUND 950 MB. LIGHT
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW HELPS TRAP MOISTURE BENEATH THIS INVERSION.
GREATER NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS HAVE SHOWN A SHARP DOWNWARD TREND
TO VISIBILITIES DOWN TO QUARTER MILE OR LESS.
WE START TO MIX OUT TOWARDS AFTERNOON ONCE INVERSION BREAKS. THIS
WOULD PROMOTE INCREASED DAYTIME WARMTH AS CLOUD COVER DECREASES.
THIS TIMING WILL BE CRUCIAL FOR MAX TEMP FORECAST TODAY...POTENTIALLY
HIGHER OR LOWER DEPENDING ON WHEN EXACTLY THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
SCATTER OUT. TOOK A MAV/MET BLEND BUT MADE SLIGHTLY COOLER ALONG
THE COAST...WHERE STRATUS/FOG WILL BE PRESENT IN THE MORNING WITH
LESS DIURNAL WARMING THAN FARTHER INTERIOR. CURRENT FORECAST HAS
LOWER 70S FOR HIGHS ACROSS INTERIOR AND MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID
60S NEAR THE COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SAME SCENARIO SETS UP FOR TONIGHT WITH MILD LOWS EXPECTED.
CONTINUED DRY WEATHER. FEATURES ALOFT REMAIN NEARLY THE SAME.
AGAIN A MAV/MET BLEND WAS USED FOR LOW TEMPERATURES. WITH FLOW
TURNING MORE SOUTHERLY...THINK THAT FOG WILL BE KEPT AT PATCHY
COVERAGE OUTSIDE OF THE CITY FORMING AS A RESULT OF ADVECTION OF
LOW LEVEL WARMER AIR TOWARDS THE COAST AND SOME RADIATIONAL
COOLING INLAND. THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY
BUT EXPECT A WARMER DAY WITH THE MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH A
QUICKER SCATTERING OUT OF LOW CONDITIONS. LESS REMARKABLE
INCREASE IN WARMTH FOR THE COAST WITH MARITIME INFLUENCE. HIGHS
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THOSE OF TUESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
DEEP LAYER RIDGING ANCHORED OVER THE EAST COAST WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL
ABOVE NORMAL.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS SOUTH...MORE OF A
SOUTHWEST FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL DEVELOP. THESE RELATIVELY HIGHER
WINDS WITH A MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT SHOULD REDUCE THE FOG POTENTIAL
FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD INTO THURSDAY MORNING. FOR NOW...WILL
CONTINUE TO CARRY PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS FALL
INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S.
A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY. THE
FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY...AND WITH DECENT MIXING TEMPERATURES
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE CLOSE TO 20 DEGREE ABOVE NORMAL. IN
ADDITION...SOME OF OUR CLIMATE STATIONS WILL COME CLOSE TO OR BREAK
THEIR RESPECTIVE RECORDS. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 70S
TO NEAR 80 ACROSS THE INTERIOR...AND UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S CLOSER
TO THE COAST. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AND ISOLATED THUNDER FOR LATE
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH COLD FRONT PASSAGE...ALTHOUGH
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AT BEST.
DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW SETS UP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN ON FRIDAY...ALLOWING A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO APPROACH ON SATURDAY AND IMPACT THE REGION SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE GRIDS LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH POPS CONTINUING
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION. THERE
MAY BE SOME LEFT OVER SHOWERS MONDAY MORNING AS THE LOW
DEPARTS...HOWEVER BY AFTERNOON...DRIER WEATHER WILL BE WORKING BACK
INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL...BUT NOT AS WARM AS IT HAS BEEN THIS WEEK. HIGHS ONLY IN THE
50S AND LOWER 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH TOMORROW.
A VARIETY OF CONDITIONS NOTED ACROSS THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING.
COASTAL TAF SITES WILL REMAIN IFR WITH OCCASIONAL LIFR THROUGH 14Z
AS DEVELOPING FOG DIMINISHES VIS LESS THAN 1/2SM...AND DOWN TO
1/4SM AT TIMES. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING IS MODERATE...AND MAY NEED TO
BE ADJUSTED. INLAND...FOG EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY 10Z...BUT SHOULD
REMAIN AT IFR LEVELS. VIS IMPROVE LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THIS
AFTERNOON.
CIGS WILL DIMINISH STILL...WITH ALL SITES DROPPING LESS THAN 010
AND ISOLATED SPOTS DROPPING TO LESS THAN 005. AGAIN...MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE AND TIMING. CIGS IMPROVE FOR THE DAY.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH A SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW EXPECTED DURING THE DAY BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH 12Z.
AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED TO ADJUST VIS AND CIGS.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH 12Z.
AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED TO ADJUST VIS AND CIGS.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 14Z.
AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED IF VIS/CIG DIMINISH TO LIFR CONDITIONS
BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 14Z.
AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED IF VIS/CIG DIMINISH TO LIFR CONDITIONS
BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH 13Z.
AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED TO ADJUST VIS AND CIGS.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED TO ADJUST TIMING OF
LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS. POSSIBLE LIFR VIS THROUGH 12Z.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WED...IFR STRATUS/FOG POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING (LOW CONFIDENCE)...THEN
VFR.
.THU-FRI...VFR.
.SAT...MARGINAL VFR CIG.
&&
.MARINE...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ALL THE
WATERS. WITH DOMINANT RIDGING ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE...SHOULD SEE SUB SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE. PATCHY FOG
AGAIN TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WIND GUSTS WILL LIKELY INCREASE BUT REMAIN SUB
SCA LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE THIS WEEKEND AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE AREA WATERS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CTZ009>012.
NY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ071>075-
078>081-176>179.
NJ...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ006-
104>108.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ330-335-
338-340-345-350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/JM
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...SEARS
MARINE...BC/JM
HYDROLOGY...BC/JM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
623 AM EDT TUE MAR 20 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT OVER NEW ENGLAND DISSIPATES JUST TO THE NORTH
OF THE TRI-STATE AREA THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
OFFSHORE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH MID WEEK. A COLD FRONT
THEN PUSHES TO OUR SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A SURFACE LOW APPROACHES THE
AREA FROM THE WEST BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
OVERALL...JET STREAM WELL NORTH OF THE REGION WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
ACROSS THE REGION. WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND BULK OF
ASSOCIATED PVA SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE WILL BE ESTABLISHED WELL OFFSHORE WITH DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED. THIS WILL KEEP A CONTINUED LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW TODAY.
BIG QUESTION IS THE FOG AND LOW LEVEL STRATUS THAT HAS SOME DECENT
AGREEMENT BETWEEN MOS GUIDANCE AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS TO BE PRESENT
GOING INTO DAYBREAK AND LAST THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY THIS MORNING.
CURRENT FORECAST HAS THESE CONDITIONS ENDING LATE THIS MORNING. THERE
IS UNCERTAINTY WITH THE ENDING TIME AND RUC BUFKIT FOR EXAMPLE
SHOWS A MUCH LONGER DURATION FOR COASTAL SITES WITH THICKENING OF
STRATUS THROUGH THE DAY. THERE IS AN INVERSION ABOVE THE SURFACE
UP TO AROUND 950 MB. LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW HELPS TRAP MOISTURE
BENEATH THIS INVERSION. GREATER NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS HAVE SHOWN
A SHARP DOWNWARD TREND TO VISIBILITIES DOWN TO QUARTER MILE OR
LESS. DENSE FOG ADVISORY ISSUED FOR LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF NYC FOR NOW UNTIL 14Z WITH POTENTIAL FOR EXPANSION TO
INCLUDE ADJACENT AREAS TO THE NORTH SUCH AS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
NYC...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...AND COASTAL CONNECTICUT.
WE START TO MIX OUT TOWARDS AFTERNOON ONCE INVERSION BREAKS. THIS
WOULD PROMOTE INCREASED DAYTIME WARMTH AS CLOUD COVER DECREASES.
THIS TIMING WILL BE CRUCIAL FOR MAX TEMP FORECAST TODAY...POTENTIALLY
HIGHER OR LOWER DEPENDING ON WHEN EXACTLY THE CLOUDS SCATTER OUT.
TOOK A MAV/MET BLEND BUT MADE SLIGHTLY COOLER ALONG THE
COAST...WHERE STRATUS/FOG WILL BE PRESENT IN THE MORNING WITH LESS
DIURNAL WARMING THAN FARTHER INTERIOR. CURRENT FORECAST HAS LOWER
70S FOR HIGHS ACROSS INTERIOR AND MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S
NEAR THE COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SAME SCENARIO SETS UP FOR TONIGHT WITH MILD LOWS EXPECTED.
CONTINUED DRY WEATHER. FEATURES ALOFT REMAIN NEARLY THE SAME.
AGAIN A MAV/MET BLEND WAS USED FOR LOW TEMPERATURES. WITH FLOW
TURNING MORE SOUTHERLY...THINK THAT FOG WILL BE KEPT AT PATCHY
COVERAGE OUTSIDE OF THE CITY. THIS WILL LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY BUT
EXPECT A WARMER DAY WITH THE MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW. LESS REMARKABLE
INCREASE IN WARMTH FOR THE COAST WITH MARITIME INFLUENCE. HIGHS
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THOSE OF TUESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
DEEP LAYER RIDGING ANCHORED OVER THE EAST COAST WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL
ABOVE NORMAL.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS SOUTH...MORE OF A
SOUTHWEST FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL DEVELOP. THESE RELATIVELY HIGHER
WINDS WITH A MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT SHOULD REDUCE THE FOG POTENTIAL
FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD INTO THURSDAY MORNING. FOR NOW...WILL
CONTINUE TO CARRY PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS FALL
INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S.
A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY. THE
FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY...AND WITH DECENT MIXING TEMPERATURES
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE CLOSE TO 20 DEGREE ABOVE NORMAL. IN
ADDITION...SOME OF OUR CLIMATE STATIONS WILL COME CLOSE TO OR BREAK
THEIR RESPECTIVE RECORDS. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 70S
TO NEAR 80 ACROSS THE INTERIOR...AND UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S CLOSER
TO THE COAST. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AND ISOLATED THUNDER FOR LATE
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH COLD FRONT PASSAGE...ALTHOUGH
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AT BEST.
DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW SETS UP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN ON FRIDAY...ALLOWING A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO APPROACH ON SATURDAY AND IMPACT THE REGION SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE GRIDS LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH POPS CONTINUING
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION. THERE
MAY BE SOME LEFT OVER SHOWERS MONDAY MORNING AS THE LOW
DEPARTS...HOWEVER BY AFTERNOON...DRIER WEATHER WILL BE WORKING BACK
INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL...BUT NOT AS WARM AS IT HAS BEEN THIS WEEK. HIGHS ONLY IN THE
50S AND LOWER 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH TOMORROW.
A VARIETY OF CONDITIONS NOTED ACROSS THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING.
COASTAL TAF SITES WILL REMAIN IFR WITH OCCASIONAL LIFR THROUGH 14Z
AS DEVELOPING FOG DIMINISHES VIS LESS THAN 1/2SM...AND DOWN TO
1/4SM AT TIMES. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING IS MODERATE...AND MAY NEED TO
BE ADJUSTED. INLAND...FOG EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY 10Z...BUT SHOULD
REMAIN AT IFR LEVELS. VIS IMPROVE LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THIS
AFTERNOON.
CIGS WILL DIMINISH STILL...WITH ALL SITES DROPPING LESS THAN 010
AND ISOLATED SPOTS DROPPING TO LESS THAN 005. AGAIN...MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE AND TIMING. CIGS IMPROVE FOR THE DAY.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH A SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW EXPECTED DURING THE DAY BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH 12Z.
AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED TO ADJUST VIS AND CIGS.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH 12Z.
AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED TO ADJUST VIS AND CIGS.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 14Z.
AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED IF VIS/CIG DIMINISH TO LIFR CONDITIONS
BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 14Z.
AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED IF VIS/CIG DIMINISH TO LIFR CONDITIONS
BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH 13Z.
AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED TO ADJUST VIS AND CIGS.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED TO ADJUST TIMING OF
LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS. POSSIBLE LIFR VIS THROUGH 12Z.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WED...IFR STRATUS/FOG POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING (LOW CONFIDENCE)...THEN
VFR.
.THU-FRI...VFR.
.SAT...MARGINAL VFR CIG.
&&
.MARINE...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ338-345-
350-353-355.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ074-075-
078>081-176>179.
NJ...MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ338-345-
350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/JM
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...SEARS
MARINE...BC/JM
HYDROLOGY...BC/JM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
841 AM MDT TUE MAR 20 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 830 AM MDT TUE MAR 20 2012
UPDATED THE CURRENT PERIOD TO REMOVE MUCH OF THE FOG WORDING AND PULLED
WAY BACK ON THIS AFTERNOON/S PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE EAST /
SOUTHEAST ZONES GIVEN REGIONAL RADAR AND NWP TRENDS. THE RASN MIX
ACROSS ERN COLORADO SHOULD CLEAR THE CWA BY 18Z. SFC WINDS BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE CWA ARE GUSTING ABOVE
30 KTS FOR TWO TO THREE HOURS BUT THEN EASE DOWN INTO THE 20-25
MPH RANGE THEREAFTER. A WIND ADVISORY IS NOT WARRANTED ATTM.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 436 AM MDT TUE MAR 20 2012
FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE WINDS/PRECIPITATION TYPE EARLY TODAY
FOLLOWED BY THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
THIS LATER PROBLEM WILL DEPEND ON THE BEHAVIOR OF DEVELOPING UPPER
LOW THAT IS CURRENTLY UNDERWAY. SATELLITE SHOWING CONTINUING TO SHOW
AN AMPLIFIED/AMPLIFYING PATTERN FROM THE PACIFIC INTO NORTH AMERICA.
IN FACT FLOW OVER MOST OF THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE IS NOT SHOWING
MUCH EASTWARD MOVEMENT.
OF COURSE MAJOR FEATURE OF INTEREST IS WHAT THE UPPER LOW IS GOING
TO DO. CURRENTLY SOUTHERN END OF A COMPLICATED UPPER TROUGH IS
STARTING TO SAG SOUTH AND DEVELOP INTO THE LOW OF INTEREST. VERY COLD
AIR ALOFT AND STRONGEST WINDS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM
DEFINITELY SUPPORT THIS CONTINUING. MODELS HAVE TRENDED TO MUCH
COOLER AND WETTER THAN 24 HOURS AGO.
AT JET LEVEL...THE CANADIAN WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE OTHER
OUTPUT. AT MID LEVELS...THE NAM...ECMWF...AND CANADIAN WERE DOING
BEST ON THE POSITION OF FEATURES AND THE HEIGHT FIELD. AT THE
SURFACE...VERY EARLY ON THE RUC WAS CATCHING WELL WITH OVERALL THE
ECMWF DOING SLIGHTLY BETTER THAN THE NAM.
TODAY/TONIGHT...INHERITED FORECAST HAD A MIXTURE OF PRECIPITATION.
SATELLITE/RADAR RETURNS HAVE SHOWN RETURNS/CLOUDS OVER THE
NORTHWEST PORTION OF FORECAST AREA AS THE FORECAST DEPICTED. DAY
SHIFT CORRECTLY DIAGNOSED THIS PER FRONTOGENETIC FORCING/LIFT IN
NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF 700 MB CIRCULATION. PROBLEM HAS BEEN DRY
LOWERS SHOWN IN SOUNDINGS AND CONFIRMED BY LARGE T/TD DEPRESSIONS.
MODELS WERE SHOWING THIS AS WELL YESTERDAY. HAVE SEEN LITTLE IF ANY
GROUND TRUTH IN THE AREA. DECIDED TO LEAVE IT IN RIGHT TO SEE IF IT
DEVELOPS...AND REVISIT THIS AT THE TIME OF THE NEXT ESTF UPDATE.
NEXT PROBLEM IS THE WINDS. 00Z MODELS WERE BRINGING IN A SHORT BURST
OF WINDS TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. HOWEVER...
FRONT BLASTED THROUGH A LITTLE FASTER THAN EXPECTED HERE WITH THE
WINDS ALREADY DECREASING AND LOSING THERE GUSTINESS. ANALYSIS SHOWS
THAT THE HIGHEST 3 HOUR PRESSURE RISES HAVE GONE THROUGH OR ARE
GOING THROUGH RIGHT NOW. VWPS SHOW NOTHING ABOVE 35 KNOTS THE
COLUMN RIGHT NOW. 06Z GUIDANCE HAS DECREASED WINDS AS WELL. SO
EXPECT WINDS TO STAY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.
NOW ONTO THE PRECIPITATION. MODELS DIFFER A LITTLE ON THE JET
POSITION BUT ALL PUT THE AREA IN THE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF THE JET
MOST OF THE DAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST. THIS JET SEGMENT MOVES OFF
TO THE EAST LATER IN THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT. BY 18Z THE AREA IS IN
UPSLOPE THROUGH 700 MB DUE TO BE IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF 700 MB
LOW AND THIS UPSLOPE DEEPENS THROUGH THE DAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST.
NEW MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BROUGHT PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. PLUS TQ INDEX WOULD INDICATE THAT THE COLD AIR ALOFT
COULD CAUSE INSTABILITY SHOWERS FORM...MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY...AND THE
LAPSE RATES/COLD AIR ALOFT IS BETTER TODAY THAN IT WAS YESTERDAY.
SO PUT IN LOW CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE SOUTHEAST HALF FOR THE
DAY. THIS PRECIPITATION AREA SPREADS SLOWLY EAST DURING THE NIGHT.
AS WILL STATE BELOW...MORE WEIGHT WAS GIVEN TO THE ECMWF AND
ESPECIALLY THE SREF QPF/PROBABILITIES FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
THIS MAKES SENSE WITH THE UPPER LOW POSITION. KEPT PHASE AS RAIN
SINCE BELIEVE HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL BE ADVECTED INTO THE AREA IN
THE DEEP EASTERLY FLOW. BASED ON CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WENT BELOW
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE FOR MAXES.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...IT NOW APPEARS THAT MODEL OUTPUT
IS COMING INTO ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A RATHER LONG DURATION PRECIPITATION
EVENT. TO GO INTO A FULL DISCUSSION ON MODEL DIFFERENCES AND TRENDS
WOULD REQUIRE A NOVEL. MODELS ARE IN CLOSER AGREEMENT BUT STILL
DIFFERENCES OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD ON SPEED AND POSITION OF THE
700-500 MB CIRCULATIONS. GEFS AND CLUSTERING OF THE DETERMINISTIC
MODEL OUTPUT SUPPORTS A SLOWER AND SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH PROGRESSION
OF THE SYSTEM. OVERALL THE ECMWF AND NAM WERE A LITTLE FASTER AND AT
TIME FURTHER TO THE WEST WITH THE CIRCULATION WITH THE UKMET/CANADIAN
ON THE SLOWER/FURTHER SOUTH SIDE. WHAT TENDED TO BE IN THE MIDDLE AND
FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE GEFS OUTPUT WAS THE SREF.
QPF THE ECMWF AND ESPECIALLY FROM THE SREF WAS SIMILAR IN POSITION
TO WHAT HPC WAS DEPICTING. SO FOR THE PERIOD WILL TEND TO FOLLOW
THE SREF/GEFS OUTPUT IN ITS PROGRESSION AND QPF LOCATION. SO
PRECIPITATION SPREAD IN FROM THE EAST/SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE WEST.
GREATEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BEGIN IN THE AFTERNOON AND
ESPECIALLY DURING THE NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. DEPENDING ON THE
SPEED OF THE SYSTEM...PRECIPITATION MAY START DECREASING SOME
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE
THURSDAY NIGHT. MODEL OUTPUT IS SHOWING SOME IMPRESSIVE
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF. HOWEVER...CONSIDERING
UNCERTAINTY ON BEHAVIOR OF SYSTEM/RECENT MODEL PERFORMANCE CHOSE TO
GO IN THE MIDDLE GROUND OF AMOUNTS. WITH DEEP EASTERLY FLOW BELIEVE
DEWPOINTS WILL STAY HIGH ENOUGH THAT PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN
LIQUID. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER AND POSSIBLE THAT
WHAT IS IN THE FORECAST MAY NOT BE COOL ENOUGH IF WETTER SOLUTIONS
PAN OUT.
THANKS TO ALL THAT COLLABORATED.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1237 AM MDT TUE MAR 20 2012
UPPER LOW WILL FINALLY SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY. IN ITS
WAKE...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AND NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 525 AM MDT TUE MAR 20 2012
AT THIS TIME VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER...THIS MORNING AND AGAIN LATER TONIGHT CEILINGS COULD
LOWER TO JUST ABOVE MVRR. A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING AND ONCE AGAIN AFTER 06Z. COVERAGE IS
NOT EXPECTED TO BE THAT GREAT UNTIL LATER TONIGHT. DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING AND COVERAGE CHOSE TO HANDLE WITH VCSH AT
BOTH SITES.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...05
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM....024
AVIATION...BULLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
934 AM CDT TUE MAR 20 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 927 AM CDT TUE MAR 20 2012
THE RATHER NARROW CORRIDOR OF DENSE FOG HAS QUICKLY DISSIPATED IN
THE DODGE CITY AREA. A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST HAS
OCCURRED IN THE SCOTT CITY AND GARDEN CITY AREA WITH THIS TROUGH
AXIS CONTINUING TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST. THE DENSE FOG WILL
LIKELY BE CANCELLED BY 15Z. THE NEXT FOCUS OF ATTENTION WILL BE
THE NEXT ROUND OF RAIN CHANCES. SHORT TERM MODELS SUCH AS THE 13KM
RUC AND 4KM HRRR INDICATE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT IN INCREASING
800-700MB SOUTHEASTERLY MOIST FLOW AFTER 18Z. AS A RESULT HAVE
BUMPED UP POPS TO HIGH CHANCE/LIKELY CATEGORY DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS GENERALLY SOUTHEAST OF A LIBERAL TO CIMARRON TO HAYS LINE.
POPS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE BY EARLY EVENING AND ESPECIALLY
OVERNIGHT TO 80-90 PERCENT OF MUCH OF THE SAME AREAS AS IMPRESSIVE
SSE TO NNW FLOW SPREADS MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT INTO
SOUTHWEST KANSAS ON THE NORTHEAST...AND EVENTUALLY NORTH SIDE OF
THE ROBUST UPPER LOW.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 748 AM CDT TUE MAR 20 2012
VISIBILITY HAS DROPPED TO 1/4SM IN DENSE FOG AT DDC THIS MORNING IN
A ZONE OF LOW SURFACE DEPRESSIONS AND SURFACE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
ALONG AND AHEAD OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY. AS A RESULT WE`VE ADDED AREAS
OF FOG TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS MORNING THOUGH AT LEAST 15 UTC AND
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS FOG DEVELOPMENT. DENSE FOG APPEARS
TO BE ON THE UPTREND AND A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 238 AM CDT TUE MAR 20 2012
A LOW PRESSURE CENTER AT THE 500MB LEVEL WAS NEAR THE NEW MEXICO
AND COLORADO BORDER AT 20/00Z. THIS LOW HAS BEEN DEVELOPING CLOSE
TO WHAT THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE FORECAST, FOR ABOUT THE PAST
5 MODEL RUNS. EAST OF THAT UPPER LOW THERE IS A DEEP JET STREAM IN
THE 120KT RANGE FROM WESTERN OKLAHOMA NORTHWARD WELL INTO WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. LOWER IN THE ATMOSPHERE NEAR THE 850MB LEVEL, A LOW
WAS SITUATED OVER EAST-CENTRAL COLORADO, WITH A 30 TO 40KT JET FLOW
OVER WESTERN KANSAS. FOR THIS REASON, ALONG WITH CURRENT DEW
POINTS IN THE LOWER 50S ACROSS OUR EASTERN CWA, THINK THERE WILL
BE RAIN DEVELOPING IN OUR EAST BY NOON, AND WORKING WESTWARD
DURING THE AFTERNOON. RAIN MAY NOT WRAP AROUND ALL THE WAY WESTWARD
INTO OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES UNTIL AFTER 00Z. POPS WILL BE
HIGHEST IN THE EAST, WITH 50 PERCENT POPS ACROSS OUR EASTERN TWO
TIERS OF COUNTIES, GRADUALLY LOWERING TO 30 POPS FROM WAKEENEY TO
COLDWATER, WITH 20 POPS FARTHER WEST. ALSO FOR TODAY, I LOWER MAX
TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES, TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INCREASED CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION. OUR EAST WILL HAVE A HARD TIME REACHING THE MID
50S, WITH THICK CLOUDS AND RAIN MOVING IN EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
THE UPPER LOW WILL CUT OFF AND STRENGTHEN TONIGHT, SO MOISTURE WILL
JUST CONTINUE BE STACKED, ESPECIALLY IN OUR EASTERN FORECAST AREA.
LIKELY 60 POPS WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES
FOR RAIN SHOWERS, BEFORE MIDNIGHT. FARTHER WEST, THERE WILL BE ZONE
OF 30 PERCENT POPS, DECREASING TO 20 PERCENT POPS IN THE NORTHWEST
AND WESTERN ZONES. WILL KEEP PRECIP TYPES AS RAIN SHOWERS BOTH
TODAY AND TONIGHT, BUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION IN OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. SINCE SCOTT CITY SHOWED HOW
FAST DRIER AIR CAN COOL (27F AT 07Z), TONIGHT COULD REALLY COOL DOWN
IN WEST, PERHAPS INTO THE LOWER 30S. OUR EAST ZONES WILL MODERATE
AND MINS SHOULD DIP INTO THE MID 30S NEAR HAYS AND THE LOWER 40S
AROUND MEDICINE LODGE AND COLDWATER.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT TUE MAR 20 2012
THE AREA OF DEEPLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE WILL ROTATE SLOWLY
NORTHWARD FROM NORTH TEXAS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, AND ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS TO POINTS EAST BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. AS
A RESULT, WESTERN KANSAS CAN EXPECT A PERIOD OF ABOUT 36-48 HOURS OF
CLOUDY, COOL AND AT TIMES WET CONDITIONS. BASED ON THE GFS, ECMWF
AND NAM MODELS, GOOD UPPER DEFORMATION WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY EVENING
ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS. THAT IS WHERE ORGANIZED RAINFALL IS MOST
LIKELY TO DEVELOP, ALTHOUGH SOME SHOWERS MIGHT HAVE ALREADY BEGUN
FARTHER EAST IN CENTRAL KANSAS NEAR THE MOIST CONVEYOR
BELT/ISENTROPIC LIFT ZONE. THE MID LEVEL COLD POOL IN THE NAM IS
BETWEEN -25 AND -30 DEGREES C. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH
SURFACED BASED INSTABILITY IS NOT A CONCERN, THE MOST UNSTABLE CAPES
DO CAUSE CONCERN FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS, AND THIS WILL
BE THE CASE BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE GFS ENSEMBLES DO NOT
OFFER A LOT OF SPREAD ON MONDAY WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE OF HIGH
TEMPERATURES NOT EXCEEDING THE LOW 50S, AND WE`VE USED A CONSENSUS
MOS WHICH IS AMONG THE COOLEST SOLUTIONS FOR THE DAY. THE GFSMOS
ALSO APPEARS TO HAVE AS GOOD OF A SOLUTION FOR EARLY MORNING
THURSDAY TEMPERATURES (IN THE 30S). GOOD AGREEMENT EXISTS IN THE
GLOBAL MODELS THAT BY FRIDAY, THE POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW WILL BE
FAR ENOUGH EAST THAT THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE MINIMAL.
THEREFORE WE MIGHT EXPECT CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT THURSDAY WITH
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS STILL EAST OF HIGHWAY 283 WITH FULL
SUN IN THE AFTERNOON AND INCREASING DEEP WARM AIR ADVECTION. THE
MODELS DON`T HAVE THE SAME RIDGE PATTERN THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND
INTO THE WEEKEND, BUT WARMING CONDITIONS SHOULD BE EXPECTED. THE
WEEKEND COULD BE FAIRLY MILD IN THE UPPER 60S, TO WARM NEAR OR
EXCEEDING 80S DEGREES FOR HIGHS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT TUE MAR 20 2012
LOW DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE NEAR HYS WILL
KEEP LOW CEILINGS FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING AT KHYS. THIS
STRATUS WILL NEED TO BE PERSISTENTLY MONITORED TO DETERMINE WHEN THE
CEILINGS WILL DISSIPATE. A LARGE UPPER LOW OVER TEXAS WILL LIFT NORTH
TODAY, ALLOWING A MOIST CONVEYOR BELT TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL
KANSAS. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
ALLOW INITIAL CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS, AND MORE IMPORTANTLY LOWERED
CEILINGS TO MVFR VALUES ON THE LARGE SCALE AFTER 00 UTC.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT TUE MAR 20 2012
WITH COOL TO MILD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK, CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. ONCE
THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK, INCREASING CHANCES
FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. HOWEVER, THIS
WILL LIKELY BE RELEGATED TO THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES BY SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 58 36 53 37 / 60 90 70 60
GCK 58 34 51 36 / 30 70 70 70
EHA 57 32 47 36 / 30 60 60 60
LBL 56 34 50 37 / 50 80 70 70
HYS 56 37 54 38 / 50 70 70 70
P28 59 41 58 41 / 70 90 70 60
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KSZ030-045-
064-077-078.
&&
$$
UPDATE...UMSCHEID
SYNOPSIS...BURKE
SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM....RUSSELL
AVIATION...RUSSELL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
558 AM MDT TUE MAR 20 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 544 AM MDT TUE MAR 20 2012
JUST ISSUED AN UPDATE TO REMOVE THE FREEZING PRECIPITATION FROM
THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. MANY
LOCATIONS IN THIS AREA ARE ABOVE FREEZING WITH ONLY ISOLATED NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING. TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS CONTINUE
TO REMAIN PRETTY LARGE AND CONTINUE TO SEE LITTLE IF ANY
CONFIRMATION THAT ANYTHING IS MAKING TO THE GROUND EVEN THOUGH
RADAR IS SHOWING A NARROW WESTWARD MOVING BAND OF PRECIPITATION.
LAPS SOUNDINGS IN THE AREA INDICATE STILL A RATHER LARGE DRY LAYER
IN THE LOWEST LEVELS. DUAL POL RADAR PRODUCTS ARE INDICATING THAT
THE PRECIPITATION TRYING TO FALL IS SNOW. CONSIDERING THE LOW
DEWPOINTS IN PLACE AND ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES...PRECIPITATION
MAKING TO THE GROUND COULD BE EITHER RAIN OR SNOW. SO THAT WAS
INSERTED INTO THE FORECAST. WILL BE UPDATING AGAIN SHORTLY TO
INTRODUCE FOG. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THIS THROUGH THE NIGHT
AND SO NOW THAT IT MEANS IT IS DEVELOPING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 436 AM MDT TUE MAR 20 2012
FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE WINDS/PRECIPITATION TYPE EARLY TODAY
FOLLOWED BY THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
THIS LATER PROBLEM WILL DEPEND ON THE BEHAVIOR OF DEVELOPING UPPER
LOW THAT IS CURRENTLY UNDERWAY. SATELLITE SHOWING CONTINUING TO SHOW
AN AMPLIFIED/AMPLIFYING PATTERN FROM THE PACIFIC INTO NORTH AMERICA.
IN FACT FLOW OVER MOST OF THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE IS NOT SHOWING
MUCH EASTWARD MOVEMENT.
OF COURSE MAJOR FEATURE OF INTEREST IS WHAT THE UPPER LOW IS GOING
TO DO. CURRENTLY SOUTHERN END OF A COMPLICATED UPPER TROUGH IS
STARTING TO SAG SOUTH AND DEVELOP INTO THE LOW OF INTEREST. VERY COLD
AIR ALOFT AND STRONGEST WINDS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM
DEFINITELY SUPPORT THIS CONTINUING. MODELS HAVE TRENDED TO MUCH
COOLER AND WETTER THAN 24 HOURS AGO.
AT JET LEVEL...THE CANADIAN WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE OTHER
OUTPUT. AT MID LEVELS...THE NAM...ECMWF...AND CANADIAN WERE DOING
BEST ON THE POSITION OF FEATURES AND THE HEIGHT FIELD. AT THE
SURFACE...VERY EARLY ON THE RUC WAS CATCHING WELL WITH OVERALL THE
ECMWF DOING SLIGHTLY BETTER THAN THE NAM.
TODAY/TONIGHT...INHERITED FORECAST HAD A MIXTURE OF PRECIPITATION.
SATELLITE/RADAR RETURNS HAVE SHOWN RETURNS/CLOUDS OVER THE
NORTHWEST PORTION OF FORECAST AREA AS THE FORECAST DEPICTED. DAY
SHIFT CORRECTLY DIAGNOSED THIS PER FRONTOGENETIC FORCING/LIFT IN
NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF 700 MB CIRCULATION. PROBLEM HAS BEEN DRY
LOWERS SHOWN IN SOUNDINGS AND CONFIRMED BY LARGE T/TD DEPRESSIONS.
MODELS WERE SHOWING THIS AS WELL YESTERDAY. HAVE SEEN LITTLE IF ANY
GROUND TRUTH IN THE AREA. DECIDED TO LEAVE IT IN RIGHT TO SEE IF IT
DEVELOPS...AND REVISIT THIS AT THE TIME OF THE NEXT ESTF UPDATE.
NEXT PROBLEM IS THE WINDS. 00Z MODELS WERE BRINGING IN A SHORT BURST
OF WINDS TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. HOWEVER...
FRONT BLASTED THROUGH A LITTLE FASTER THAN EXPECTED HERE WITH THE
WINDS ALREADY DECREASING AND LOSING THERE GUSTINESS. ANALYSIS SHOWS
THAT THE HIGHEST 3 HOUR PRESSURE RISES HAVE GONE THROUGH OR ARE
GOING THROUGH RIGHT NOW. VWPS SHOW NOTHING ABOVE 35 KNOTS THE
COLUMN RIGHT NOW. 06Z GUIDANCE HAS DECREASED WINDS AS WELL. SO
EXPECT WINDS TO STAY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.
NOW ONTO THE PRECIPITATION. MODELS DIFFER A LITTLE ON THE JET
POSITION BUT ALL PUT THE AREA IN THE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF THE JET
MOST OF THE DAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST. THIS JET SEGMENT MOVES OFF
TO THE EAST LATER IN THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT. BY 18Z THE AREA IS IN
UPSLOPE THROUGH 700 MB DUE TO BE IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF 700 MB
LOW AND THIS UPSLOPE DEEPENS THROUGH THE DAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST.
NEW MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BROUGHT PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. PLUS TQ INDEX WOULD INDICATE THAT THE COLD AIR ALOFT
COULD CAUSE INSTABILITY SHOWERS FORM...MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY...AND THE
LAPSE RATES/COLD AIR ALOFT IS BETTER TODAY THAN IT WAS YESTERDAY.
SO PUT IN LOW CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE SOUTHEAST HALF FOR THE
DAY. THIS PRECIPITATION AREA SPREADS SLOWLY EAST DURING THE NIGHT.
AS WILL STATE BELOW...MORE WEIGHT WAS GIVEN TO THE ECMWF AND
ESPECIALLY THE SREF QPF/PROBABILITIES FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
THIS MAKES SENSE WITH THE UPPER LOW POSITION. KEPT PHASE AS RAIN
SINCE BELIEVE HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL BE ADVECTED INTO THE AREA IN
THE DEEP EASTERLY FLOW. BASED ON CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WENT BELOW
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE FOR MAXES.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...IT NOW APPEARS THAT MODEL OUTPUT
IS COMING INTO ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A RATHER LONG DURATION PRECIPITATION
EVENT. TO GO INTO A FULL DISCUSSION ON MODEL DIFFERENCES AND TRENDS
WOULD REQUIRE A NOVEL. MODELS ARE IN CLOSER AGREEMENT BUT STILL
DIFFERENCES OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD ON SPEED AND POSITION OF THE
700-500 MB CIRCULATIONS. GEFS AND CLUSTERING OF THE DETERMINISTIC
MODEL OUTPUT SUPPORTS A SLOWER AND SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH PROGRESSION
OF THE SYSTEM. OVERALL THE ECMWF AND NAM WERE A LITTLE FASTER AND AT
TIME FURTHER TO THE WEST WITH THE CIRCULATION WITH THE UKMET/CANADIAN
ON THE SLOWER/FURTHER SOUTH SIDE. WHAT TENDED TO BE IN THE MIDDLE AND
FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE GEFS OUTPUT WAS THE SREF.
QPF THE ECMWF AND ESPECIALLY FROM THE SREF WAS SIMILAR IN POSITION
TO WHAT HPC WAS DEPICTING. SO FOR THE PERIOD WILL TEND TO FOLLOW
THE SREF/GEFS OUTPUT IN ITS PROGRESSION AND QPF LOCATION. SO
PRECIPITATION SPREAD IN FROM THE EAST/SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE WEST.
GREATEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BEGIN IN THE AFTERNOON AND
ESPECIALLY DURING THE NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. DEPENDING ON THE
SPEED OF THE SYSTEM...PRECIPITATION MAY START DECREASING SOME
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE
THURSDAY NIGHT. MODEL OUTPUT IS SHOWING SOME IMPRESSIVE
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF. HOWEVER...CONSIDERING
UNCERTAINTY ON BEHAVIOR OF SYSTEM/RECENT MODEL PERFORMANCE CHOSE TO
GO IN THE MIDDLE GROUND OF AMOUNTS. WITH DEEP EASTERLY FLOW BELIEVE
DEWPOINTS WILL STAY HIGH ENOUGH THAT PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN
LIQUID. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER AND POSSIBLE THAT
WHAT IS IN THE FORECAST MAY NOT BE COOL ENOUGH IF WETTER SOLUTIONS
PAN OUT.
THANKS TO ALL THAT COLLABORATED.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1237 AM MDT TUE MAR 20 2012
UPPER LOW WILL FINALLY SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY. IN ITS
WAKE...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AND NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 525 AM MDT TUE MAR 20 2012
AT THIS TIME VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER...THIS MORNING AND AGAIN LATER TONIGHT CEILINGS COULD
LOWER TO JUST ABOVE MVRR. A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING AND ONCE AGAIN AFTER 06Z. COVERAGE IS
NOT EXPECTED TO BE THAT GREAT UNTIL LATER TONIGHT. DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING AND COVERAGE CHOSE TO HANDLE WITH VCSH AT
BOTH SITES.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM....024
AVIATION...BULLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
528 AM MDT TUE MAR 20 2012
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 436 AM MDT TUE MAR 20 2012
FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE WINDS/PRECIPITATION TYPE EARLY TODAY
FOLLOWED BY THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
THIS LATER PROBLEM WILL DEPEND ON THE BEHAVIOR OF DEVELOPING UPPER
LOW THAT IS CURRENTLY UNDERWAY. SATELLITE SHOWING CONTINUING TO SHOW
AN AMPLIFIED/AMPLIFYING PATTERN FROM THE PACIFIC INTO NORTH AMERICA.
IN FACT FLOW OVER MOST OF THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE IS NOT SHOWING
MUCH EASTWARD MOVEMENT.
OF COURSE MAJOR FEATURE OF INTEREST IS WHAT THE UPPER LOW IS GOING
TO DO. CURRENTLY SOUTHERN END OF A COMPLICATED UPPER TROUGH IS
STARTING TO SAG SOUTH AND DEVELOP INTO THE LOW OF INTEREST. VERY COLD
AIR ALOFT AND STRONGEST WINDS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM
DEFINITELY SUPPORT THIS CONTINUING. MODELS HAVE TRENDED TO MUCH
COOLER AND WETTER THAN 24 HOURS AGO.
AT JET LEVEL...THE CANADIAN WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE OTHER
OUTPUT. AT MID LEVELS...THE NAM...ECMWF...AND CANADIAN WERE DOING
BEST ON THE POSITION OF FEATURES AND THE HEIGHT FIELD. AT THE
SURFACE...VERY EARLY ON THE RUC WAS CATCHING WELL WITH OVERALL THE
ECMWF DOING SLIGHTLY BETTER THAN THE NAM.
TODAY/TONIGHT...INHERITED FORECAST HAD A MIXTURE OF PRECIPITATION.
SATELLITE/RADAR RETURNS HAVE SHOWN RETURNS/CLOUDS OVER THE
NORTHWEST PORTION OF FORECAST AREA AS THE FORECAST DEPICTED. DAY
SHIFT CORRECTLY DIAGNOSED THIS PER FRONTOGENETIC FORCING/LIFT IN
NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF 700 MB CIRCULATION. PROBLEM HAS BEEN DRY
LOWERS SHOWN IN SOUNDINGS AND CONFIRMED BY LARGE T/TD DEPRESSIONS.
MODELS WERE SHOWING THIS AS WELL YESTERDAY. HAVE SEEN LITTLE IF ANY
GROUND TRUTH IN THE AREA. DECIDED TO LEAVE IT IN RIGHT TO SEE IF IT
DEVELOPS...AND REVISIT THIS AT THE TIME OF THE NEXT ESTF UPDATE.
NEXT PROBLEM IS THE WINDS. 00Z MODELS WERE BRINGING IN A SHORT BURST
OF WINDS TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. HOWEVER...
FRONT BLASTED THROUGH A LITTLE FASTER THAN EXPECTED HERE WITH THE
WINDS ALREADY DECREASING AND LOSING THERE GUSTINESS. ANALYSIS SHOWS
THAT THE HIGHEST 3 HOUR PRESSURE RISES HAVE GONE THROUGH OR ARE
GOING THROUGH RIGHT NOW. VWPS SHOW NOTHING ABOVE 35 KNOTS THE
COLUMN RIGHT NOW. 06Z GUIDANCE HAS DECREASED WINDS AS WELL. SO
EXPECT WINDS TO STAY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.
NOW ONTO THE PRECIPITATION. MODELS DIFFER A LITTLE ON THE JET
POSITION BUT ALL PUT THE AREA IN THE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF THE JET
MOST OF THE DAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST. THIS JET SEGMENT MOVES OFF
TO THE EAST LATER IN THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT. BY 18Z THE AREA IS IN
UPSLOPE THROUGH 700 MB DUE TO BE IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF 700 MB
LOW AND THIS UPSLOPE DEEPENS THROUGH THE DAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST.
NEW MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BROUGHT PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. PLUS TQ INDEX WOULD INDICATE THAT THE COLD AIR ALOFT
COULD CAUSE INSTABILITY SHOWERS FORM...MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY...AND THE
LAPSE RATES/COLD AIR ALOFT IS BETTER TODAY THAN IT WAS YESTERDAY.
SO PUT IN LOW CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE SOUTHEAST HALF FOR THE
DAY. THIS PRECIPITATION AREA SPREADS SLOWLY EAST DURING THE NIGHT.
AS WILL STATE BELOW...MORE WEIGHT WAS GIVEN TO THE ECMWF AND
ESPECIALLY THE SREF QPF/PROBABILITIES FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
THIS MAKES SENSE WITH THE UPPER LOW POSITION. KEPT PHASE AS RAIN
SINCE BELIEVE HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL BE ADVECTED INTO THE AREA IN
THE DEEP EASTERLY FLOW. BASED ON CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WENT BELOW
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE FOR MAXES.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...IT NOW APPEARS THAT MODEL OUTPUT
IS COMING INTO ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A RATHER LONG DURATION PRECIPITATION
EVENT. TO GO INTO A FULL DISCUSSION ON MODEL DIFFERENCES AND TRENDS
WOULD REQUIRE A NOVEL. MODELS ARE IN CLOSER AGREEMENT BUT STILL
DIFFERENCES OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD ON SPEED AND POSITION OF THE
700-500 MB CIRCULATIONS. GEFS AND CLUSTERING OF THE DETERMINISTIC
MODEL OUTPUT SUPPORTS A SLOWER AND SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH PROGRESSION
OF THE SYSTEM. OVERALL THE ECMWF AND NAM WERE A LITTLE FASTER AND AT
TIME FURTHER TO THE WEST WITH THE CIRCULATION WITH THE UKMET/CANADIAN
ON THE SLOWER/FURTHER SOUTH SIDE. WHAT TENDED TO BE IN THE MIDDLE AND
FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE GEFS OUTPUT WAS THE SREF.
QPF THE ECMWF AND ESPECIALLY FROM THE SREF WAS SIMILAR IN POSITION
TO WHAT HPC WAS DEPICTING. SO FOR THE PERIOD WILL TEND TO FOLLOW
THE SREF/GEFS OUTPUT IN ITS PROGRESSION AND QPF LOCATION. SO
PRECIPITATION SPREAD IN FROM THE EAST/SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE WEST.
GREATEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BEGIN IN THE AFTERNOON AND
ESPECIALLY DURING THE NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. DEPENDING ON THE
SPEED OF THE SYSTEM...PRECIPITATION MAY START DECREASING SOME
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE
THURSDAY NIGHT. MODEL OUTPUT IS SHOWING SOME IMPRESSIVE
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF. HOWEVER...CONSIDERING
UNCERTAINTY ON BEHAVIOR OF SYSTEM/RECENT MODEL PERFORMANCE CHOSE TO
GO IN THE MIDDLE GROUND OF AMOUNTS. WITH DEEP EASTERLY FLOW BELIEVE
DEWPOINTS WILL STAY HIGH ENOUGH THAT PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN
LIQUID. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER AND POSSIBLE THAT
WHAT IS IN THE FORECAST MAY NOT BE COOL ENOUGH IF WETTER SOLUTIONS
PAN OUT.
THANKS TO ALL THAT COLLABORATED.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1237 AM MDT TUE MAR 20 2012
UPPER LOW WILL FINALLY SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY. IN ITS
WAKE...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AND NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 525 AM MDT TUE MAR 20 2012
AT THIS TIME VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER...THIS MORNING AND AGAIN LATER TONIGHT CEILINGS COULD
LOWER TO JUST ABOVE MVRR. A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING AND ONCE AGAIN AFTER 06Z. COVERAGE IS
NOT EXPECTED TO BE THAT GREAT UNTIL LATER TONIGHT. DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING AND COVERAGE CHOSE TO HANDLE WITH VCSH AT
BOTH SITES.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM....024
AVIATION...BULLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
436 AM MDT TUE MAR 20 2012
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 436 AM MDT TUE MAR 20 2012
FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE WINDS/PRECIPITATION TYPE EARLY TODAY
FOLLOWED BY THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
THIS LATER PROBLEM WILL DEPEND ON THE BEHAVIOR OF DEVELOPING UPPER
LOW THAT IS CURRENTLY UNDERWAY. SATELLITE SHOWING CONTINUING TO SHOW
AN AMPLIFIED/AMPLIFYING PATTERN FROM THE PACIFIC INTO NORTH AMERICA.
IN FACT FLOW OVER MOST OF THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE IS NOT SHOWING
MUCH EASTWARD MOVEMENT.
OF COURSE MAJOR FEATURE OF INTEREST IS WHAT THE UPPER LOW IS GOING
TO DO. CURRENTLY SOUTHERN END OF A COMPLICATED UPPER TROUGH IS
STARTING TO SAG SOUTH AND DEVELOP INTO THE LOW OF INTEREST. VERY COLD
AIR ALOFT AND STRONGEST WINDS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM
DEFINITELY SUPPORT THIS CONTINUING. MODELS HAVE TRENDED TO MUCH
COOLER AND WETTER THAN 24 HOURS AGO.
AT JET LEVEL...THE CANADIAN WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE OTHER
OUTPUT. AT MID LEVELS...THE NAM...ECMWF...AND CANADIAN WERE DOING
BEST ON THE POSITION OF FEATURES AND THE HEIGHT FIELD. AT THE
SURFACE...VERY EARLY ON THE RUC WAS CATCHING WELL WITH OVERALL THE
ECMWF DOING SLIGHTLY BETTER THAN THE NAM.
TODAY/TONIGHT...INHERITED FORECAST HAD A MIXTURE OF PRECIPITATION.
SATELLITE/RADAR RETURNS HAVE SHOWN RETURNS/CLOUDS OVER THE
NORTHWEST PORTION OF FORECAST AREA AS THE FORECAST DEPICTED. DAY
SHIFT CORRECTLY DIAGNOSED THIS PER FRONTOGENETIC FORCING/LIFT IN
NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF 700 MB CIRCULATION. PROBLEM HAS BEEN DRY
LOWERS SHOWN IN SOUNDINGS AND CONFIRMED BY LARGE T/TD DEPRESSIONS.
MODELS WERE SHOWING THIS AS WELL YESTERDAY. HAVE SEEN LITTLE IF ANY
GROUND TRUTH IN THE AREA. DECIDED TO LEAVE IT IN RIGHT TO SEE IF IT
DEVELOPS...AND REVISIT THIS AT THE TIME OF THE NEXT ESTF UPDATE.
NEXT PROBLEM IS THE WINDS. 00Z MODELS WERE BRINGING IN A SHORT BURST
OF WINDS TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. HOWEVER...
FRONT BLASTED THROUGH A LITTLE FASTER THAN EXPECTED HERE WITH THE
WINDS ALREADY DECREASING AND LOSING THERE GUSTINESS. ANALYSIS SHOWS
THAT THE HIGHEST 3 HOUR PRESSURE RISES HAVE GONE THROUGH OR ARE
GOING THROUGH RIGHT NOW. VWPS SHOW NOTHING ABOVE 35 KNOTS THE
COLUMN RIGHT NOW. 06Z GUIDANCE HAS DECREASED WINDS AS WELL. SO
EXPECT WINDS TO STAY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.
NOW ONTO THE PRECIPITATION. MODELS DIFFER A LITTLE ON THE JET
POSITION BUT ALL PUT THE AREA IN THE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF THE JET
MOST OF THE DAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST. THIS JET SEGMENT MOVES OFF
TO THE EAST LATER IN THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT. BY 18Z THE AREA IS IN
UPSLOPE THROUGH 700 MB DUE TO BE IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF 700 MB
LOW AND THIS UPSLOPE DEEPENS THROUGH THE DAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST.
NEW MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BROUGHT PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. PLUS TQ INDEX WOULD INDICATE THAT THE COLD AIR ALOFT
COULD CAUSE INSTABILITY SHOWERS FORM...MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY...AND THE
LAPSE RATES/COLD AIR ALOFT IS BETTER TODAY THAN IT WAS YESTERDAY.
SO PUT IN LOW CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE SOUTHEAST HALF FOR THE
DAY. THIS PRECIPITATION AREA SPREADS SLOWLY EAST DURING THE NIGHT.
AS WILL STATE BELOW...MORE WEIGHT WAS GIVEN TO THE ECMWF AND
ESPECIALLY THE SREF QPF/PROBABILITIES FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
THIS MAKES SENSE WITH THE UPPER LOW POSITION. KEPT PHASE AS RAIN
SINCE BELIEVE HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL BE ADVECTED INTO THE AREA IN
THE DEEP EASTERLY FLOW. BASED ON CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WENT BELOW
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE FOR MAXES.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...IT NOW APPEARS THAT MODEL OUTPUT
IS COMING INTO ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A RATHER LONG DURATION PRECIPITATION
EVENT. TO GO INTO A FULL DISCUSSION ON MODEL DIFFERENCES AND TRENDS
WOULD REQUIRE A NOVEL. MODELS ARE IN CLOSER AGREEMENT BUT STILL
DIFFERENCES OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD ON SPEED AND POSITION OF THE
700-500 MB CIRCULATIONS. GEFS AND CLUSTERING OF THE DETERMINISTIC
MODEL OUTPUT SUPPORTS A SLOWER AND SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH PROGRESSION
OF THE SYSTEM. OVERALL THE ECMWF AND NAM WERE A LITTLE FASTER AND AT
TIME FURTHER TO THE WEST WITH THE CIRCULATION WITH THE UKMET/CANADIAN
ON THE SLOWER/FURTHER SOUTH SIDE. WHAT TENDED TO BE IN THE MIDDLE AND
FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE GEFS OUTPUT WAS THE SREF.
QPF THE ECMWF AND ESPECIALLY FROM THE SREF WAS SIMILAR IN POSITION
TO WHAT HPC WAS DEPICTING. SO FOR THE PERIOD WILL TEND TO FOLLOW
THE SREF/GEFS OUTPUT IN ITS PROGRESSION AND QPF LOCATION. SO
PRECIPITATION SPREAD IN FROM THE EAST/SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE WEST.
GREATEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BEGIN IN THE AFTERNOON AND
ESPECIALLY DURING THE NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. DEPENDING ON THE
SPEED OF THE SYSTEM...PRECIPITATION MAY START DECREASING SOME
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE
THURSDAY NIGHT. MODEL OUTPUT IS SHOWING SOME IMPRESSIVE
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF. HOWEVER...CONSIDERING
UNCERTAINTY ON BEHAVIOR OF SYSTEM/RECENT MODEL PERFORMANCE CHOSE TO
GO IN THE MIDDLE GROUND OF AMOUNTS. WITH DEEP EASTERLY FLOW BELIEVE
DEWPOINTS WILL STAY HIGH ENOUGH THAT PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN
LIQUID. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER AND POSSIBLE THAT
WHAT IS IN THE FORECAST MAY NOT BE COOL ENOUGH IF WETTER SOLUTIONS
PAN OUT.
THANKS TO ALL THAT COLLABORATED.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1237 AM MDT TUE MAR 20 2012
UPPER LOW WILL FINALLY SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY. IN ITS
WAKE...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AND NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1052 PM MDT MON MAR 19 2012
LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED MUCH SLOWER WITH
STRONGER WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT OVERNIGHT. NOW APPEARS STRONGER
WINDS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AROUND 12-13Z. ALSO APPEARS CIGS WILL
REMAIN JUST INTO VFR. CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT PERIODS OF MVFR
CIGS BUT CONFIDENCE IN SPECIFIC TIMING IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE A
TEMPO GROUP FOR THIS ISSUANCE. WIND GUSTS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE
EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO DECREASE.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM....024
AVIATION...FOLTZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
1025 AM EDT TUE MAR 20 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
RECORD WARMTH WILL PERSIST AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF
OUR WEATHER THE BALANCE OF THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL FEEL
MORE LIKE EARLY JUNE THAN MID MARCH. WET WEATHER IS FORECAST THIS
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE EXISTING FORECAST OTHER THAN TO
TWEAK POPS TO LATEST RADAR TRENDS. SMALL CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONT TO MOVE SLOWLY S FM CENTRAL LAKE ERIE.
DETERMINISTIC HI RES MODELS OFFER A WIDE ENVELOPE OF
POSSIBILITIES THIS AFTERNOON. HRRR IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH
DEVELOPING NUMEROUS STORMS OVER WRN PA...WHILE THE OTHER HI RES
SOLUTIONS SUGGEST ISOLD ACTIVITY AT BEST. AGREE WITH THE
LATTER...WHICH MATCHES ARE ONGOING FORECAST. A POCKET OF ENERGY
MOVING SLOWLY WWRD ALOFT INTO OUR FAR ERN AREAS...FEEL THE
GREATEST CHANCE WILL BE E OF I-79 AND THE MOUNTAINS LATER TODAY.
H8 TEMPS INCREASE 2C OVER MONDAY`S VALUES...WHICH CORRELATES INTO
ABOUT A 4F BUMP IN MAXT. AGAIN THIS PUTS US IN RECORD TERRITORY. SEE
CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR BENCHMARKS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE WILL PROVIDE JUNE-LIKE TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH NO MORE THAN AN ISOLATED LATE
AFTERNOON THUNDERSHOWER POSSIBLE.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
OCCLUDED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY TRACK EAST FROM THE MS
VALLEY ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THE WEEKEND. A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT PROGGED TO SAG SOUTHWARD AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM COULD BRING
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ON FRIDAY...BUT A GREATER COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH THE
EASTWARD MOVING LOW.
A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM SHOULD BRING DRY
CONDITIONS ON MONDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DOWN INTO THE MID 50S TO MID 60S BY
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BUT OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST.
VFR...UNLESS A AIRPORT EXPERIENCES A SCATTERED STORM. AS OF
NOW...PROB IS TOO LOW FOR INCLUSION IN THE TAF.
OUTLOOK...12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR WEATHER IS FORESEEN.
&&
.CLIMATE...
CURRENT RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY MARCH 20.
PITTSBURGH PA.........79 SET IN 1948.
DUBOIS PA.............73 SET IN 1976.
MORGANTOWN WV.........79 SET IN 1984.
WHEELING WV...........69 SET IN 1952.
ZANESVILLE OH.........76 SET IN 1976.
NEW PHILADELPHIA OH....73 SET IN 2003.
PITTSBURGHS HIGH OF 75 ON MARCH 19 EXTENDS THE STRING OF
CONSECUTIVE MARCH DAYS WITH HIGHS OF 70 PLUS...TO SEVEN.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...98
NEAR TERM...98
AVIATION...98
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
906 AM EDT TUE MAR 20 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST UNTIL A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND BRINGS
THE POTENTIAL FOR UNSETTLED CONDITIONS NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR LOWER SOUTHERN MARYLAND AND THE
NORTHERN VIRGINIA PIEDMONT HAS BEEN CANCELLED. PATCHY DENSE FOG
COULD STILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE WESTERN SHORE THROUGH THE REST OF
THE MORNING.
ORIGINAL MORNING DISCUSSION...
WEAK DISTURBANCE/TROUGH WAS CONTINUING TO PROVIDE MUCH OF CENTRAL
MARYLAND WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOW
LEVELS WERE ALREADY FAIRLY MOIST WITH INFLUENCE FROM LIGHT EASTERLY
FLOW. FOLLOWING RUC/HRRR GUIDANCE...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
MOVE TOWARD THE EAST THROUGH DAYBREAK. WILL HAVE POPS IN THIS AREA
THROUGH ABOUT 12Z...WITH DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE THROUGH THAT TIME.
ANOTHER FACTOR TO CONSIDER IN THE EARLY MORNING FORECAST IS POSSIBLE
FOG FORMATION. MODELS INDICATE MARINE LAYER GETTING A BETTER PUSH
TOWARD DAYBREAK. STILL HAVE THE AFOREMENTIONED SHOWERS TO CONTEND
WITH IN CENTRAL MARYLAND AND ALSO HAVE A DECENT AMOUNT OF CLOUDS
ALREADY OVERHEAD ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA...SO HAVE SOME
UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING BOTH COVERAGE AND MAGNITUDE OF FOG. ABOVE
FACTORS MAY LIMIT DENSE FOG POTENTIAL...ALTHOUGH CAN/T RULE IT OUT
EITHER GIVEN MARINE LAYER INTRUSION AND SEVERAL SOURCES OF GUIDANCE
INDICATING DENSE FOG. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT AREAS OF FOG IN THE
GRIDS ATTM.
BEYOND THIS MORNING...CWA CONTINUES TO BE ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF A
RIDGE AXIS OVER THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. MODELS INDICATE A
DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH IN NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT LATER THIS
MORNING/AFTERNOON. HRRR SUGGESTS MAIN IMPACT MAY BE ACROSS THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST CWA. BUT NAM/GFS ALSO SUGGEST THAT MAY BE SHOWERS
FURTHER EAST TOWARD THE BAY PERHAPS ALONG A LINGERING CONVERGENT
AXIS. EITHER WAY...WILL RAMP POPS BACK UP LATER IN THE
MORNING/AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CWA. FURTHER AWAY FROM INFLUENCE OF THE
MARINE LAYER...ANY THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE HIGHLANDS/CENTRAL
SHENANDOAH VALLEY/CENTRAL VIRGINIA FOOTHILLS COULD PRODUCE SOME
HAIL.
ACTIVITY SHOULD EXIT THE CWA THIS EVENING. MARINE LAYER IS LIKELY TO
PUSH BACK INLAND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. LOW STRATUS AND/OR FOG MAY
RESULT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
A LARGE BLOCKING DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO ENCOMPASS
THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH KINKS IN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND
THE WRN SIDE OF THE HIGH AND CONVERGENCE AREAS TO DEVELOP SOME
SHOWERS FROM THE CAROLINAS INTO THE MID-ATLC. ONE SUCH FEATURE WILL
A RELATIVE UPPER LOW CAUGHT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE UPPER RIDGE
/CENTERED OVER THE TIDEWATER REGION/. AS LOW LEVEL FLOW ROUNDS THE
WRN SIDE OF THE HIGH...BATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN WILL DRIFT NW TOWARD
THE BLUE RIDGE WED MRNG AND INTO THE AFTN HRS. BEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIP ACROSS THE SRN TIER COUNTIES ON WED...BUT AN OUTSIDE CHANCE
FOR A PORTION OF THE ACTIVITY TO DRIFT FURTHER NORTH BEFORE
DISSIPATING.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE OFFSHORE UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN GET REPOSITIONED OVERNIGHT WED
INTO THU...AS THE LARGE AND DEEP UPPER LOW OVER THE SRN PLAINS
BEGINS TO MOVE TOWARD THE EAST. A STRONG NRN STREAM UPPER JET
STATIONED EAST-TO-WEST OVER SRN CANADA ON THU WILL CAUSE THE SRN
PLAINS LOW TO BEGIN MOVING DUE EAST. THIS WON/T LAST LONG...AS THE
JET BEGINS TO PIVOT NW-SE...ALLOWING THE LOW TO DRIFT NEWD INTO THE
OHIO VLY AND CAUSING A FORCED RIDGE AXIS OVER THE APLCNS. THIS WILL
MEAN MORE WARMTH FOR THE ERN SEABOARD AND A RETURN TO NEAR 80 HIGHS
ON THU AND FRI FOR THE MID ATLC. EACH DAY MAY SEE SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS/TSTMS BUT VERY POORLY FORCED AND MAINLY A CONTINUING EFFECT
OF THE HIGH AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK CONVERGENCE.
A FAIRLY CONSISTENT FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND FROM LONG RANGE MEMBERS
THAT BEGIN THE TREK OF THE UPPER LOW INTO THE REGION ON SAT...MOVING
OVER THE MID-ATLC ON SUN AND OFF THE COAST BY EARLY MON. MOVEMENT OF
UPPER LOWS HOWEVER ARE TYPICALLY CHALLENGING BECAUSE THEY ARE
DEPENDENT ON THEIR TELECONNECTIONS W/ THE SYNOPTIC FEATURES THAT
SURROUND THEM. HOWEVER...THE PAST FEW DAYS OF MODEL RUNS HAVE TAKEN
THE UPPER LOW FAIRLY STEADILY OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND...LEADING
TO COOL AND WET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MID-ATLC SAT/SUN.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MARINE LAYER INFLUENCE IS LIKELY TO SUPPORT LOW CIGS IN STRATUS AND
POSSIBLY LOW VSBYS IN FOG THIS MORNING. DEGRADATION HAS BEEN A
LITTLE SLOWER THAN SOME PAST RECENT NIGHTS /SAVE FOR MRB WHICH HAS
ALREADY FOGGED UP AFTER LAST EVENING/S RAIN AND THEN BRIEF
CLEARING/...BUT THERE/S GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG NAM/GFS/HRRR/RUC IN AT
LEAST IFR AND POSSIBLY LIFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AND PERSISTING
THROUGH 14Z-15Z AT THE HUBS. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER AT CHO AND IF IT
WERE TO HAPPEN ONSET WOULD BE CLOSER TO SUNRISE. AFTER CONDITIONS
IMPROVE...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO THE AFTERNOON
ALTHOUGH IT/S DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT EXACTLY WHERE THEY WILL SET UP
SO NO EXPLICIT MENTION HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN TAFS ATTM. MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MORE MARINE LAYER STRATUS/FOG OCCURRING
TONIGHT. ONSET COULD BE A LITTLE SOONER THAN WHAT WE SEE EARLY
THIS MORNING.
OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP MOIST CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION ON
WED FOR ANOTHER DAY OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO
START THE DAY. THE HIGH WILL THEN BEGIN TO PUSH FURTHER OFF THE
COAST THU/FRI AND SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK
WEEK. PERIODS OF LIGHT ELY WINDS ON WED...THEN CHANGING TO SLY ON
THU AND SWLY ON FRI. MORE ACTIVITY WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND...AS
AN UPPER LOW DRIFTS ACROSS THE AREA SAT/SUN INTO EARLY MON.
&&
.MARINE...
THERE WILL BE FOG OVER/NEAR THE WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING THAT COULD
REDUCE TO VSBYS TO 1 NM OR LESS AT TIMES. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
EASTERLY FLOW AT 10 KT OR LESS TO PREVAIL TODAY/TONIGHT.
MARINE LAYER MAY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW VSBYS IN FOG
TONIGHT.
LIGHT WINDS CONTINUING THRU THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE OFF THE COAST SLOWLY FROM THU INTO FRI. AN UPPER LOW BRING MORE
SCATTERED RAIN FOR THE WEEKEND...AND PERIODS OF BREEZY CONDITIONS
BUT LOW-END SCA OR LESS.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BPP/GMS
NEAR TERM...CJL/BPP
SHORT TERM...GMS
LONG TERM...GMS
AVIATION...BPP/GMS
MARINE...BPP/GMS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
632 AM EDT TUE MAR 20 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST UNTIL A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND BRINGS
THE POTENTIAL FOR UNSETTLED CONDITIONS NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EXPANDED DENSE FOG ADVISORY WEST TO INCLUDE THE NORTH CENTRAL
VIRGINIA PIEDMONT BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS.
ORIGINAL MORNING DISCUSSION...
WEAK DISTURBANCE/TROUGH WAS CONTINUING TO PROVIDE MUCH OF CENTRAL
MARYLAND WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOW
LEVELS WERE ALREADY FAIRLY MOIST WITH INFLUENCE FROM LIGHT EASTERLY
FLOW. FOLLOWING RUC/HRRR GUIDANCE...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
MOVE TOWARD THE EAST THROUGH DAYBREAK. WILL HAVE POPS IN THIS AREA
THROUGH ABOUT 12Z...WITH DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE THROUGH THAT TIME.
ANOTHER FACTOR TO CONSIDER IN THE EARLY MORNING FORECAST IS POSSIBLE
FOG FORMATION. MODELS INDICATE MARINE LAYER GETTING A BETTER PUSH
TOWARD DAYBREAK. STILL HAVE THE AFOREMENTIONED SHOWERS TO CONTEND
WITH IN CENTRAL MARYLAND AND ALSO HAVE A DECENT AMOUNT OF CLOUDS
ALREADY OVERHEAD ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA...SO HAVE SOME
UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING BOTH COVERAGE AND MAGNITUDE OF FOG. ABOVE
FACTORS MAY LIMIT DENSE FOG POTENTIAL...ALTHOUGH CAN/T RULE IT OUT
EITHER GIVEN MARINE LAYER INTRUSION AND SEVERAL SOURCES OF GUIDANCE
INDICATING DENSE FOG. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT AREAS OF FOG IN THE
GRIDS ATTM.
BEYOND THIS MORNING...CWA CONTINUES TO BE ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF A
RIDGE AXIS OVER THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. MODELS INDICATE A
DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH IN NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT LATER THIS
MORNING/AFTERNOON. HRRR SUGGESTS MAIN IMPACT MAY BE ACROSS THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST CWA. BUT NAM/GFS ALSO SUGGEST THAT MAY BE SHOWERS
FURTHER EAST TOWARD THE BAY PERHAPS ALONG A LINGERING CONVERGENT
AXIS. EITHER WAY...WILL RAMP POPS BACK UP LATER IN THE
MORNING/AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CWA. FURTHER AWAY FROM INFLUENCE OF THE
MARINE LAYER...ANY THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE HIGHLANDS/CENTRAL
SHENANDOAH VALLEY/CENTRAL VIRGINIA FOOTHILLS COULD PRODUCE SOME
HAIL.
ACTIVITY SHOULD EXIT THE CWA THIS EVENING. MARINE LAYER IS LIKELY TO
PUSH BACK INLAND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. LOW STRATUS AND/OR FOG MAY
RESULT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
A LARGE BLOCKING DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO ENCOMPASS
THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH KINKS IN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND
THE WRN SIDE OF THE HIGH AND CONVERGENCE AREAS TO DEVELOP SOME
SHOWERS FROM THE CAROLINAS INTO THE MID-ATLC. ONE SUCH FEATURE WILL
A RELATIVE UPPER LOW CAUGHT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE UPPER RIDGE
/CENTERED OVER THE TIDEWATER REGION/. AS LOW LEVEL FLOW ROUNDS THE
WRN SIDE OF THE HIGH...BATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN WILL DRIFT NW TOWARD
THE BLUE RIDGE WED MRNG AND INTO THE AFTN HRS. BEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIP ACROSS THE SRN TIER COUNTIES ON WED...BUT AN OUTSIDE CHANCE
FOR A PORTION OF THE ACTIVITY TO DRIFT FURTHER NORTH BEFORE
DISSIPATING.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE OFFSHORE UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN GET REPOSITIONED OVERNIGHT WED
INTO THU...AS THE LARGE AND DEEP UPPER LOW OVER THE SRN PLAINS
BEGINS TO MOVE TOWARD THE EAST. A STRONG NRN STREAM UPPER JET
STATIONED EAST-TO-WEST OVER SRN CANADA ON THU WILL CAUSE THE SRN
PLAINS LOW TO BEGIN MOVING DUE EAST. THIS WON/T LAST LONG...AS THE
JET BEGINS TO PIVOT NW-SE...ALLOWING THE LOW TO DRIFT NEWD INTO THE
OHIO VLY AND CAUSING A FORCED RIDGE AXIS OVER THE APLCNS. THIS WILL
MEAN MORE WARMTH FOR THE ERN SEABOARD AND A RETURN TO NEAR 80 HIGHS
ON THU AND FRI FOR THE MID ATLC. EACH DAY MAY SEE SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS/TSTMS BUT VERY POORLY FORCED AND MAINLY A CONTINUING EFFECT
OF THE HIGH AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK CONVERGENCE.
A FAIRLY CONSISTENT FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND FROM LONG RANGE MEMBERS
THAT BEGIN THE TREK OF THE UPPER LOW INTO THE REGION ON SAT...MOVING
OVER THE MID-ATLC ON SUN AND OFF THE COAST BY EARLY MON. MOVEMENT OF
UPPER LOWS HOWEVER ARE TYPICALLY CHALLENGING BECAUSE THEY ARE
DEPENDENT ON THEIR TELECONNECTIONS W/ THE SYNOPTIC FEATURES THAT
SURROUND THEM. HOWEVER...THE PAST FEW DAYS OF MODEL RUNS HAVE TAKEN
THE UPPER LOW FAIRLY STEADILY OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND...LEADING
TO COOL AND WET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MID-ATLC SAT/SUN.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MARINE LAYER INFLUENCE IS LIKELY TO SUPPORT LOW CIGS IN STRATUS AND
POSSIBLY LOW VSBYS IN FOG THIS MORNING. DEGRADATION HAS BEEN A
LITTLE SLOWER THAN SOME PAST RECENT NIGHTS /SAVE FOR MRB WHICH HAS
ALREADY FOGGED UP AFTER LAST EVENING/S RAIN AND THEN BRIEF
CLEARING/...BUT THERE/S GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG NAM/GFS/HRRR/RUC IN AT
LEAST IFR AND POSSIBLY LIFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AND PERSISTING
THROUGH 14Z-15Z AT THE HUBS. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER AT CHO AND IF IT
WERE TO HAPPEN ONSET WOULD BE CLOSER TO SUNRISE. AFTER CONDITIONS
IMPROVE...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO THE AFTERNOON
ALTHOUGH IT/S DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT EXACTLY WHERE THEY WILL SET UP
SO NO EXPLICIT MENTION HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN TAFS ATTM. MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MORE MARINE LAYER STRATUS/FOG OCCURRING
TONIGHT. ONSET COULD BE A LITTLE SOONER THAN WHAT WE SEE EARLY
THIS MORNING.
OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP MOIST CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION ON
WED FOR ANOTHER DAY OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO
START THE DAY. THE HIGH WILL THEN BEGIN TO PUSH FURTHER OFF THE
COAST THU/FRI AND SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK
WEEK. PERIODS OF LIGHT ELY WINDS ON WED...THEN CHANGING TO SLY ON
THU AND SWLY ON FRI. MORE ACTIVITY WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND...AS
AN UPPER LOW DRIFTS ACROSS THE AREA SAT/SUN INTO EARLY MON.
&&
.MARINE...
THERE WILL BE FOG OVER/NEAR THE WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING THAT COULD
REDUCE TO VSBYS TO 1 NM OR LESS AT TIMES. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
EASTERLY FLOW AT 10 KT OR LESS TO PREVAIL TODAY/TONIGHT.
MARINE LAYER MAY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW VSBYS IN FOG
TONIGHT.
LIGHT WINDS CONTINUING THRU THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE OFF THE COAST SLOWLY FROM THU INTO FRI. AN UPPER LOW BRING MORE
SCATTERED RAIN FOR THE WEEKEND...AND PERIODS OF BREEZY CONDITIONS
BUT LOW-END SCA OR LESS.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ016>018.
VA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ050-051-
055>057-502.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BPP/GMS
NEAR TERM...BPP
SHORT TERM...GMS
LONG TERM...GMS
AVIATION...BPP/GMS
MARINE...BPP/GMS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
732 AM EDT TUE MAR 20 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLE WARMTH WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS WE NOW ENTER INTO
ASTRONOMICAL SPRING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OFF THE
ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THURSDAY...ENSURING A CONTINUATION OF
UNSEASONABLE SUMMER-LIKE WARMTH THROUGH THAT TIME. EXPECT CONDITIONS
TO REMAIN LARGELY DRY AS WELL.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 11Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUED TO DISPLAYED A COMPACT SHORT
WAVE OVER CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA THIS MORNING...WHILE IR SATELLITE
DISPLAYS JUST SOME PATCHY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION ACROSS CENTRAL PA UNDER THE
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE. GOES LOW CLOUD BASE PRODUCT ALONG WITH SFC
OBSERVATIONS SHOW AREAS OF FOG ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND SOUTHERN GENESEE VALLEY AS WELL AS
ALONG THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY.
FOR THIS MORNING WILL USE AREAS OF FOG WORDING FOR THE SOUTHERN
TIER...SOUTHERN GENESEE VALLEY...SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE LAKE SHORELINE WHERE THE THICKEST FOG AND GREATEST
REDUCTION IN VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED. ANY PATCHY FOG ELSEWHERE
THIS MORNING WILL ERODE THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS AS DAYTIME
HEATING AND BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING OF DRIER AIR ERODES THE FOG. WE
SHOULD SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE TODAY...EXCEPT FOR PORTIONS OF
THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER AND GENESEE VALLEY WHERE BOTH THE 00Z NAM
AND GFS DEPICT A MOIST 925-850 HPA LAYER THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
HERE A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE THIS MORNING SHOULD BECOME MORE
SUNNY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
THE LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR MODEL SHOW UPSTREAM CONVECTION WITH A
WEAKENING SHORT WAVE NEAR LAKE HURON ADVECTING INTO PORTIONS OF WNY
BEFORE ACTIVITY DIES. LATEST RADAR RETURNS SHOW LIMITED ACTIVITY
CURRENTLY NEAR LAKE HURON THIS MORNING...AND WILL BRING A LOW CHC
POPS ACROSS LAKE ERIE AND THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AROUND NOONTIME
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE WITH THE BUILDING
RIDGE...WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD JUST SLIGHT CHC POPS ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF WNY...AND INCREASE SKY COVER TO PARTLY SUNNY FOR A FEW
HOURS AROUND NOONTIME.
TEMPERATURES AT 850 HPA REMAIN +10 TO +12C THROUGH THE DAY AND WITH
A BIT MORE SUNSHINE TODAY THAN MONDAY...AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE A
FEW DEGREES WARMER WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 ACROSS THE
REGION. WITH THE WEAK FLOW ALOFT EXPECT LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATIONS TO
MAINTAIN COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SHORELINE WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S. COOLEST INLAND AREAS WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS THE TUG
HILL...AND INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER WHERE SOME CLOUDS WILL LINGER
LATER THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
WE WILL BECOME SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH 500 J/KG OF
SBCAPE BUILDING ACROSS THE GENESEE VALLEY ALONG LI`S FALLING TO JUST
BELOW ZERO. MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL REMAIN AMPLE HOWEVER
WITH THE LACK OF A SYNOPTIC TRIGGERING MECHANISM...AND THE
INCREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT EXPECT ANY AFTERNOON CONVECTION UNDER THE
BUILDING RIDGE TO PRIMARILY BE ALONG LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES...AND
MESOSCALE CIRCULATIONS.
AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL END QUICKLY THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING. WE WILL REMAIN MILD AGAIN UNDER A MAINLY CLEAR
SKY WITH LOWS REMAINING IN THE 50S FOR MANY AREAS. WITH DEWPOINTS
WARM AS WELL...AND IN THE SAME AIRMASS EXPECT FOG TO AGAIN DEVELOP
THROUGH THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE THICKER FOG WAS SEEN
THIS MORNING. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS TOMORROW NIGHT WINDS MAY BE
JUST ENOUGH STRONGER FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO MAINTAIN ANY LAKE
STRATUS FOG CONFINED TO OVER THE LAKES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE INCREDIBLY WARM WEATHER WE HAVE BEEN SEEING OF LATE WILL
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS FIRMLY
ENTRENCHED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND ABUNDANT WARM AIR REMAINS
IN PLACE OVER THE REGION. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND 850MB TEMPS IN THE
NEIGHBORHOOD OF +12 TO +14C WILL YIELD HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING
FOR YET ANOTHER DAY OF RECORD HIGHS TO FALL ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BE FOUND NEAR THE LAKES WHERE A WEAK
SYNOPTIC FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP...KEEPING
HIGHS WITHIN A FEW MILES OF THE LAKES DOWN IN THE 60S. IN SPITE OF
THE WARM UNSTABLE AIR IN THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...AM
NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION AS A CAP AT AROUND
850MB ALONG WITH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE UNDERNEATH THE STRENGTHENING
RIDGE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO STIFLE ANY CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
COOL INTO THE 50S ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
EXPECT MUCH OF THE SAME ON THURSDAY. THE ONLY DIFFERENCE IS THAT A
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL BE EDGING SOUTHWARDS TOWARDS THE AREA LATE
IN THE DAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING. THERE IS A SLIM CHANCE THAT WEAK
SYNOPTIC LIFT AHEAD OF THIS FRONT MAY PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH OF A
TRIGGER TO SET OFF SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER AM NOT PARTICULARLY IMPRESSED AT THIS POINT.
AFTERNOON HIGHS MAY ONCE AGAIN BRING US INTO RECORD
TERRITORY...THOUGH NOT QUITE AS WARM AS WEDNESDAY...MOST AREAS CAN
STILL EXPECT UPPER 70S WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE USUALLY WARMER
GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES BREACHING 80.
THE COOLER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT STARTS TO FILTER INTO THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTICULARLY THE NORTH COUNTRY. THUS EXPECT
LOWS TO RUN A LITTLE COOLER WITH LOWER 50S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WITH 40S IN THE NORTH COUNTRY.
EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AS THE DRY BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
SAGS SOUTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK. HOWEVER COOLER IS A RELATIVE
TERM IN THIS CASE AS HIGHS WILL STILL RUN NEARLY 20 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE. QUIET WEATHER WILL PERSIST AS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN
QUITE DRY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AND RIDGING ALOFT WILL ENSURE
CONTINUED WIDESPREAD SUNSHINE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL HINGE ON
THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WORKING ACROSS THE MIDDLE PART
OF THE COUNTRY AND ITS INTERACTION WITH A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE.
ECMWF/CANADIAN/GFS ALL SUGGEST MOISTURE BEING DRAWN NORTHWARD WITH
DECENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS FOR BOTH WEEKEND DAYS WITH A GRADUAL
IMPROVING TREND DEVELOPING AS THE UPPER LOW PUSHES TO THE EAST COAST
BY MONDAY. ASSUMING CLOUDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAVE SUGGESTED COOLER TEMPERATURES DURING THE REST
OF THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH STILL ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT 12Z MAINLY VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WERE FOUND ACROSS THE REGION
UNDER A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND. LATEST GOES LOW CLOUD BASE DEPICTS
AREAS OF FOG ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORES...SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY
AND OVER THE LAKES. WILL CONTINUE THE AREAS OF MVFR VSBYS THIS
MORNING FOR A FEW HOURS...BEFORE A RETURN TO VFR EXPECTED LATER THIS
MORNING.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WITH VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE START OF TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE A TAD STRONGER
OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER WILL STILL INCLUDE A REDUCTION TO MVFR IN
RADIATIONAL FOG LATER OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE WESTERN THREE TAF SITES.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR...WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS THURSDAY AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
FOR THIS MORNING LATEST GOES LOW CLOUD BASE PRODUCT DEPICTS AREAS OF
FOG OVER BOTH LAKES AND WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS FOG WORDING
THROUGH THE MORNING FOR THE LAKE PRODUCTS. WITH A SIMILAR AIRMASS
TONIGHT EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO AGAIN FORM THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WITH WAVES A FOOT OR LESS ON THE LAKES
THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AND MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN DOMINANT ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES REGION
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...PROMOTING A CONTINUATION OF QUIET
MARINE CONDITIONS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS...AND HIGH MINIMUMS FOR BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER THIS
WEEK.
BUFFALO
DATERECORD HIGH (YEAR) HIGH MINIMUM (YEAR)
TUE 3/20 74 (1903) 51 (1921)
WED 3/21 69 (1913) 48 (1948)
THU 3/22 71 (1938) 59 (1938)
FRI 3/23 78 (1966) 48 (1920)
ROCHESTER
DATE RECORD HIGH (YEAR) HIGH MINIMUM (YEAR)
TUE 3/20 79 (1903) 57 (1903)
WED 3/21 72 (1921) 43 (1938)
THU 3/22 83 (1938) 53 (1938)
FRI 3/23 79 (1966) 50 (1938)
A COMPARISON OF THIS CURRENT WARM SPELL IN MARCH OF 2012 TO OTHER YEARS
SHOWS JUST HOW AMAZING THIS STRETCH OF WARM TEMPERATURES ARE.
FOR BUFFALO THE GREATEST AMOUNT OF DAYS REACHING 60F DEGREES OR
WARMER IN THE MONTH OF MARCH IS 11 DAYS SET IN 1973. FOR ROCHESTER
THE GREATEST AMOUNT OF DAYS REACHING 60F OR WARMER IN THE MONTH OF
MARCH IS 12 DAYS SET IN 1946. FOR BOTH CITIES WE WILL LIKELY TIE
THIS MARK TODAY...AND THEN BREAK THOSE RECORDS ON WEDNESDAY.
A TYPICAL MARCH AVERAGES ABOUT 3 DAYS OF 60F OR GREATER.
ANOTHER WAY TO DISPLAY HOW GREAT A STRETCH THIS WARM SPELL IS...IS
TO LOOK AT CONSECUTIVE DAYS AT OR ABOVE 60F IN MARCH. FOR BUFFALO
THE GREATEST NUMBER OF CONSECUTIVE DAYS 60F OR GREATER IN MARCH WAS 6
DAYS SET IN 1945. FOR ROCHESTER THE GREATEST STRETCH OF 60F OR
GREATER TEMPERATURES IN MARCH WAS ALSO 6 DAYS SET IN 1945...1968 AND
1998. PRESENTLY THROUGH MONDAY MARCH 19TH THE STREAK FOR BUFFALO IS NOW 8
DAYS...AND ROCHESTER NOW 9 DAYS...AND COUNTING. MARCH OF 2012 WILL GO
DOWN AS ONE OF...IF NOT THE WARMEST MARCH MONTHS IN RECORDED HISTORY.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...THOMAS
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...THOMAS
CLIMATE...THOMAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1136 AM EDT TUE MAR 20 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
SUMMER LIKE CONDITIONS...WARM TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A MORE
SIGNIFICANT SPRING LIKE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 AM TUESDAY...CANCELLED DFA AS VISIBILITIES INCREASED THIS
MORNING. MAIN CONCERN FOR REST OF DAY IS HOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF
CONVECTION FOR TODAY. LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW WILL VEER AROUND
BECOMING E-SE. A FEW LITTLE MID TO UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES RIDING
DOWN IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT HELPING TO PRODUCE SHWRS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS OVER WESTERN COUNTIES. AS WINDS VEER AROUND AND
WITH AN ADDED PUSH FROM THE SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON HIGHER
DEWPOINT AIR WILL MAKE ITS WAY INLAND. EXPECT BEST CONVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY AS IT PUSHES INLAND BUT WILL
ALSO HAVE ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS/TSTMS MOVING DOWN FROM THE NORTH
BUT AS WINDS VEER AROUND IT MAY HOLD THIS AREA FURTHER WEST AND
NORTH OF LOCAL CWA. HRRR SHOWING CAPE VALUES UP AROUND 1200 WITHIN SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARY AND 500 TO 800 JKG VALUES FURTHER INLAND AND
NORTH. OVERALL CONVECTIVE INDICES DO NOT SEEM AS FAVORABLE FOR
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL KEEP ISOLATED TO SCT
CONVECTION.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WELL ABOVE NORMAL...PERHAPS A
FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY DEPENDING UPON EXTENT OF CLOUD
COVER. CLOUD COVER WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE TODAY...PARTLY CLOUDY
AT LEAST THOUGH THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. AREAS THAT EXPERIENCED
CONVECTION THIS MORNING WERE RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW SUNNIER
AREAS AND WILL RISE MORE SLOWLY DUE TO LINGERING CLOUD COVER. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW MORE IN THE WAY OF OVERCAST CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
OVERNIGHT AS MID TO HIGH CLOUDS THICKEN AND LOWER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3:00 AM TUESDAY...MAIN FOCUS WILL BE THE MID LEVEL
WEAKNESS/LOW THAT DRIFTS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. RICHER THETA-E
AIR WILL ALSO ADVECT IN AND THIS APPEARS TO BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION THIS WEEK. NAM/MET GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE OFF THE CHARTS
WITH LIKELY AND EVEN CATEGORICAL POPS IN SOME INSTANCES. THESE
HAVE BEEN VERY HIGH LATELY AND THE MORE MODEST GFS/MAV NUMBERS
LOOK LIKE A BETTER PLAY. POPS ARE ACTUALLY HIGHER VIA THE GFS FOR
THURSDAY AND SUBTLE LOW AND MID LEVEL OMEGA (WEAK DEFORMATION)
BECOME COUPLED. NO CHANGES TO TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3:00 AM TUESDAY...STARTING TO SEE A HINT OF MODEL CONSENSUS
FOR THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE LONG ADVERTISED SYSTEM FOR THE
WEEKEND. THIS HAS BEEN THE TREND WITH THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE
THE PAST FEW CYCLES. OVERALL THE MID LEVEL CYCLONE LOOPS ACROSS
THE MIDWEST THEN DROPS BACK OVER THE MID ATLANTIC SUNDAY. AT THE
SURFACE WE WILL SEE A COMPLEX SYSTEM OF FRONTS...MOST LIKELY WIND
SHIFTS AS ANY TEMPERATURE DISCONTINUITY WILL BE ALL BUT GONE.
MAINTAINED THE POPS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST INCREASING A BIT
FOR SUNDAY CITING THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER 0000 UTC GFS SOLUTION AND
HPCS PREFERENCE FOR THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING IN FOG/STRATUS THIS
MORNING AT ALL TERMINALS. TEMPO PERIODS OF VLIFR ARE OCCURRING
MAINLY AT CRE. CONFIDENCE IS VERY HIGH CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AS
INDICATED IN TAFS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY NORTH OF LBT MOVING TO THE
SOUTH. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED IN THE PAST HOUR OR SO.
MODELS DO NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS. THERE IS MODERATE TO
HIGH CONFIDENCE THIS ACTIVITY WILL AFFECT THE LBT TERMINAL 13Z-14Z
WITH AT LEAST TEMPO SHOWERS/MVFR AND POSSIBLY VCTS. ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS LOW A VERY BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR IS POSSIBLE.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE BEST
CHANCE OF CONVECTION ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CREATED BY THIS
MORNING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX...ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR THE FLO-CRE
TERMINALS BY THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE...BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY 10-15 KNOTS.
GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A REPEAT OF LOW/STRATUS AND FOG BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT AS HIGH AS PREVIOUS MORNINGS. SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY POTENTIALLY AFFECT THE LBT TERMINAL
OVERNIGHT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...THROUGH FRIDAY...MORNING FOG/MVFR...SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. BETTER CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 AM TUESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. WEAK
GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT THROUGH THE NEAR
TERM AND EVEN VARIABLE AT TIMES...GENERALLY WELL UNDER 10 KTS.
SEAS WILL IN TURN CONTINUE TO BE BENIGN...RIGHT AROUND 2 FT OR
LESS...MAINLY COMPOSED OF AN ESE SWELL COMPONENT WITH A PERIOD OF
AROUND 8 SECONDS.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3:00 AM TUESDAY...A VERY CONSISTENT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OF
10-15 KNOTS...PROBABLY CLOSER TO 10 WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THURSDAY OFFERS A BETTER CHANCE OF CONVECTION DISTORTING
THE SYNOPTIC WINDS WHICH IS REALLY THE ONLY CAVEAT TO THE
FORECAST. SWAN SEAS DISPLAY CONSISTENCY AS WELL WITH 2-4 FEET.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3:00 AM TUESDAY...ADJUSTED WINDS AND SEAS UPWARD SLIGHTLY
FOR SATURDAY AS THERE IS A BIT MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE SOLUTION FOR
THE EXTENDED. INITIALLY A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN EXISTS AS THE MID
LEVEL RIDGE DRIFTS OVERHEAD FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER SOUTHWEST FLOW
SATURDAY. WIND SPEEDS INCREASE FROM TEN KNOTS OR LESS EARLY FRIDAY
TO 15-20 LATE SATURDAY. INTRODUCED SOME FIVE FOOT SEAS LATE
SATURDAY OTHERWISE...2-4 FEET WILL SUFFICE.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...MRR
MARINE...REK/SHK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
1012 AM EDT TUE MAR 20 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY. A STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE THIS MORNING TO HIGHLIGHT CONVECTION OVER EASTERN LAKE
ERIE. LATEST HRRR SHOWING THIS WELL...AND THIS COMBINED WITH OTHER
MODELS SUGGESTING THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
DEVELOPING OVER INLAND NE OH LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THINKING THAT
THERE WILL BE SOME DISORGANIZED CELLS POPPING UP SO DID NOT GO TOO
HIGH WITH POPS...WITH LOW CHC MENTIONED FOR NOW. EXPECTING LAKE
ERIE SHRA/STORMS TO PUSH INLAND SLOWLY THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. LEFT TEMPS ALONE GIVEN YESTERDAY/S MAXES. OUTSIDE OF
CONVECTION NOT WORRIED MUCH ABOUT CLOUDS GETTING IN THE WAY OF
TEMPS SOMEWHERE AROUND 80 FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
RIDGING CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY. THE WARM AIRMASS OVERHEAD WILL
MODERATE LITTLE AND MORE RECORD HIGHS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND
POSSIBLY THURSDAY. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH ACROSS
THE AREA LATE THURSDAY AND COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS POP UP.
BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP COME AT THE END OF THE WEEK AND START OF
THE WEEKEND. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING INTO
THE REGION FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. TIMING OF THE PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE STILL SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC. RIGHT NOW
IT APPEARS THAT ABOUT THE WEST HALF OF THE AREA WILL HAVE A DECENT
SHOT AT PRECIP BY LATE FRIDAY. EASTERN AREAS MAY HAVE TO WAIT TILL
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT A HALF INCH TO INCH
OF RAINFALL IS LIKELY WITH THIS SYSTEM. HAVE USED A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE TEMPS FOR LATER PERIODS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS GENERALLY IN AGREEMENT SHOWING THE UPPER LEVEL LOW STILL
TRAVERSING THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH THE CORE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL IS EXPECTED TO PASS SOUTH OF THE
AREA...500MB TEMPS NEAR -20C SHOULD STILL PROVIDE ENOUGH INSTABILITY
TO TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY. WOULD EXPECT
COVERAGE TO BE GREATER ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...ESPECIALLY IF THE MARINE LAYER STARTS TO PUSH IN OFF LAKE
ERIE DURING THE AFTERNOON. COUNTING ON THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO
KEEP TEMPERATURES CONFINED TO THE LOW 60S...POSSIBLY STUCK IN THE
50S NEAR THE LAKE. SHOWERS SHOULD DWINDLE ON SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND MORE STABLE AIR WORKING SOUTH OUT OF
CANADA. MODELS ARE PRETTY GENEROUS WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GETTING
TRAPPED BENEATH THE INVERSION ON SUNDAY AND EXPECTING AT LEAST PARTY
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL A FEW MORE DEGREES
INTO THE UPPER 50S.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OUT OF CANADA FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK
BRINGING A RETURN TO CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO THICKEN ACROSS NE OHIO AND A FEW
SPRINKLES OR ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE AT YNG/ERI
THROUGH 15Z. ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON UNLESS A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPS. LESS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE TODAY THAN MONDAY AND MODELS
SHOW LITTLE IF ANY CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON DESPITE SOME
LINGERING INSTABILITY. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SHOULD BE 20 PERCENT
OR LESS SO NOT INCLUDED IN TERMINALS AT THIS TIME. LIGHT SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH A LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPING
AGAIN AT CLE/ERI IN THE 20-02Z WINDOW. BR MAY DEVELOP BY LATE
TONIGHT WITH VISIBILITIES DROPPING INTO THE MVFR RANGE WITH LIGHT WINDS.
MOST LIKELY TO ACTUALLY SEE FOG WILL BE TOL WHERE MOISTURE OFF THE
LAKE WILL RESULT IN LOWER VISIBILITIES.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE IN MORNING BR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
NON VFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
STABLE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON LAKE ERIE WITH A LIGHT EAST TO
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND WAVES GENERALLY BELOW 2 FEET. CONVECTION
POSSIBLE MAINLY ON THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LAKE TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL JUST NORTH OF LAKE ERIE ON
FRIDAY... BEFORE BEING PULLED SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE OVER THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...ABE
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC/JAMISON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1056 AM EDT TUE MAR 20 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS WILL DOMINATE THE REGION OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA OVER THE WEEKEND...FOLLOWED BY
SOMEWHAT COOLER AND DRIER HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1040 AM...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND THE LATEST RUC SHOW A STRONG
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE BASE OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...WITH A WEAK
EMBEDDED VORT LOBE MOVING SWD THROUGH CENTRAL NC/SC. THIS UPPER WAVE
HAS TRIGGERED SCATTERED CONVECTION JUST EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...BUT STEERING FLOW SHOULD KEEP THIS OUT OF THE CWFA. POPS HAVE
BEEN INCREASED SLIGHTLY SE OF CLT THROUGH MID AFTN...HOWEVER.
OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK...WITH TEMPERATURES
RUNNING IN LINE WITH GUIDANCE. CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE AS
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. TRIGGERING
FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS VERY HARD TO FIND THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT WILL BE BEST ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE IN WEAK
CONVERGENT AND UPSLOPE FLOW. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE FAIRLY
SLOW MOVING AND COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. AN ISOLATED
LARGE HAIL OR DAMAGING WIND EVENT CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH ANY 55
DBZ CORES REACHING AROUND 22 KFT. CHANCES WOULD BE BEST OVER THE NC
PIEDMONT. HIGHS WILL APPROACH RECORDS ONCE AGAIN.
THE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS IN PLACE OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH A WEAK UPPER
LOW CLOSING OFF NEAR THE NC/VA COAST FROM THE ENERGY SLIDING DOWN
THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE. WEAK CONVECTION MAY REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT
FROM EITHER LOW LEVEL ELY FLOW OR IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER FORCING.
WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE ISOLATE SHRA ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE
77 OVERNIGHT...AS WELL AS NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE IN CONTINUED UPSLOPE
FLOW. LOWS 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT 225 AM EDT TUESDAY...SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT A NARROW
HIGHLY AMPLIFY H5 RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN
REGION ON WEDNESDAY. TO THE WEST...A LARGE CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. TO THE EAST...A WEAK H5 LOW
MAY DEVELOP OVER EASTERN NC/VA. AT THE SFC...LARGE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...PROVIDING MOIST
EAST FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS INDICATE THAT WEAK QG
FORCING WILL DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF WEAK H5 LOW OVER THE EASTERN
NC/VA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S
WILL YIELD WEAK INSTABILITY. THE COMBINATION OF WEAK SYNOPTIC
FORCING...DEEP MOISTURE...AND ADEQUATE INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT
SCT SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE I-77 AND I-40 CORRIDORS DURING THE
AFTERNOON...FADING TO SCHC WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO RANGE FROM AROUND 50 ACROSS THE MTNS TO U50S EAST.
THURSDAY...H5 RIDGING WILL WEAKEN ACROSS THE CWA AS CLOSED LOW OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS MOVES SLIGHTLY EAST. A BAND OF SHRA/TSRA WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER AROUND SUNRISE THURSDAY. THE BAND WILL MOVE EAST DURING THE
DAY...BUT SHOULD REMAIN WELL WEST OF THE CWA BY SUNSET.
HOWEVER...RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL LIKELY INCREASE
AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. INCREASING UPSLOPE FLOW...LINGERING
DEEP MOISTURE...AND WEAK INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT ISO SHRA/TSRA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE IN THE MID TO U70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...BAND OF SHRA/TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD
FRONT WILL LIKELY ARRIVE OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY MID
DAY...PUSHING EAST DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. GFS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT CAPES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 300 TO 800
J/KG...HELICITY AND SWEAT APPEAR FAIRLY LOW DURING THE PASSAGE OF
THE LINE. I WILL INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE MTNS...SOLID CHC
EAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY RANGE FROM MID 70S ACROSS THE MTNS TO
AROUND 80 EAST. LOWS IN THE 50S.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE THE PLACEMENT
AND TIMING OF THE CLOSED H5 LOW. IT APPEARS THAT QG FORCING WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY LIGHT HOURS ON
SATURDAY...PEAKING EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...THEN MOVING EAST SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. I WILL INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40
LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO LATE SATURDAY EVENING...WITH SOLID POPS
SOUTH. FORCING AND MODERATE LAPSE RATES SHOULD SUPPORT A EQUAL
MENTION OF SHRA AND TSRA THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE CLOSED
LOW...FORCING...AND MOISTURE WILL TRACK EAST DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY...RESULTING IN A STEADY DECREASE IN SHRA. HIGH TEMPS WILL
RANGE IN THE LOW 70S ACROSS THE MTNS TO U70S EAST...COOLING TO THE
U60S ACROSS THE MTNS TO MID 70S EAST ON SUNDAY.
MONDAY...H5 RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THROUGH THE
DAY. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY AND MOSTLY CLEAR. TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO RANGE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF A WEAK VORTICITY LOBE
MOVING SWD ALONG THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE MAY FLIRT WITH THE
KCLT VICINITY THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO PASS BY FAR ENOUGH TO THE SE TO BE INCLUDED IN THE TAF.
EXPECT LIGHT SRLY WINDS...BACKING A LITTLE TONIGHT. TRIGGERING IS
GENERALLY WEAK THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH MAX INSTABILITY AND BEST
CHANCE FOR ISOLD TO SCT TSTMS LIKELY BY 00Z THIS EVENING. THE
GUIDANCE IS QUITE BULLISH ON VSBY PROBLEMS OVERNIGHT...BUT CLOUD
COVER COULD INCREASE IN EASTERLY FLOW...SO WILL ONLY FEATURE MVFR
FOR NOW.
ELSEWHERE...PATCHY MID CLOUDS AND CIRRUS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL HEATING
PROVIDES INCREASING VFR CUMULUS CEILINGS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
EXPECT LIGHT SRLY FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. TRIGGERING IS WEAK FOR
ISOLD TO SCT CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTN THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH CHCS
BEST AT THE NC TAF SITES. GUIDANCE SHOWS IFR FOG AND CIGS DEVELOPING
AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS IS POSSIBLE WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SELY
FLOW. HOWEVER...THE SREF SHOWS NO RESTRICTIONS AND ANY
UPSLOPE/UPGLIDE CLOUD COVER COMPLICATES THIS FORECAST. WILL THUS
ONLY GO MVFR FOG FOR NOW.
OUTLOOK...LITTLE PATTERN CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK...SO THE POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE. FOG/STRATUS MAY ALSO DEVELOP DURING THE
PRE DAWN HOURS ACROSS THE MTNS AND ACROSS AREAS THAT RECEIVE
RAINFALL. A STRONG STORM SYSTEM MAY APPROACH THE AREA BY THE END OF
THE WEEK.
AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...HG/RWH
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...NED
AVIATION...HG/RWH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
700 PM EDT TUE MAR 20 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK COASTAL LOW PRESSURE NEAR NORFOLK VIRGINIA WILL DISSIPATE WEDNESDAY.
OTHERWISE...STRONG AND LARGE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST NORTH OF BERMUDA
WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD THIS WEEKEND. THAT WILL PERMIT A COLD FRONT TO
SETTLE SOUTH INTO DELMARVA FRIDAY. THEREAFTER...PLAINS STATES LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS EASTWARD ALONG THAT FRONT TO NEAR DELMARVA SUNDAY
MORNING AND THEN OUT TO SEA SUNDAY EVENING. A SOUTHWARD EXTENSION
OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE ALONG THE EAST COAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
SHORT TERM UPDATE BASED ON LATEST HRRR TO REMOVE MENTION OF SHRAS
STARTING NOW. HRRR SWINGS SOME SHRAS ACROSS NERN CWA OVERNIGHT,
NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH GIVEN THE TIME OF DAY TO INCLUDE WITH THIS
UPDATE. TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS ADJUSTED BASED ON CURRENT OBS,
MOST OF WHICH WERE NUDGED UP SLIGHTLY.
THE MESO LOW, JUST OFF THE DELMARVA COAST, KEEPING CLOUDS OVER
SOUTHERN DELAWARE AND COASTAL SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY. THE MESO LOW,
ALONG WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST OFF THE TIP OF EASTERN
LONG ISLAND, WILL KEEP A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW OVER OUR FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. THAT WILL MEAN ANOTHER NIGHT WITH PLENTY OF FOG. ONCE THE
SUN SETS, THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD PUSH QUICKLY INLAND.
EXPECT CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING TO BE
SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING. IN OTHER WORDS, WITH AREAS OF DENSE FOG,
THERE COULD BE ANOTHER DENSE FOG ADVISORY. IF ONE IS NEEDED, IT
WILL BE ISSUED ONCE WE CAN GET A HANDLE ON THE AREAS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED. WITH DEWPOINTS ON THE HIGH SIDE AND CLOUDS/FOG EXPECTED
TO ROLL IN, OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN QUITE HIGH. I
ACTUALLY WENT SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE MET/MAV AVERAGE. COULD BE A FEW
SPRINKLES IN THE FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, BUT DID
NOT PUT THEM IN THE GRIDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
LOOKS LIKE WEDNESDAY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY, WITH THE FOG
AND LOW CLOUDS GRADUALLY GIVING WAY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL ACTUALLY BE BUILDING INTO
A BERMUDA TYPE HIGH. LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH LATE IN THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL, ONCE AGAIN,
CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S AND 70S, WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS
ALONG COASTAL SECTIONS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TEMPS: CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THIS PERIOD THOUGH THE EXCESSIVE
15 TO 25 DEGREE CALENDER DAY ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH OF THIS WEEK WILL
BE TEMPORARILY SUBDUED TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL LATER THIS WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ALOFT: THE BROAD VERY STRONG RIDGE WITH ITS STRONGEST N-S AXIS JUST
WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL BE CUT BACK ON ITS EASTERN ATLANTIC
FLANK BY A SERIES OF STRONG SHORT WAVES. TWO OF THOSE SHORT WAVES
MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE VICINITY HUDSON BAY CANADA THROUGH THE
MARITIMES (1) THURSDAY FRIDAY AND (2) SUNDAY MONDAY...WHILE THE
HUGE SOUTHERN ROCKIES VORTEX SLOWLY WEAKENS AFTER ITS NORTHEASTWARD
EXIT OUT OF THE PLAINS STATES FRIDAY...SHOVING EASTWARD OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE SUNDAY.
SURFACE: STRONG HIGH PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF BERMUDA WILL SHIFT
SOUTHWARD THIS WEEKEND PERMITTING A CANADIAN COLD FRONT TO
SETTLE SOUTH INTO DELMARVA FRIDAY. THEREAFTER THE REMAINS OF THE
PLAINS STATES LOW TRACKS ALONG THE FRONT TO NEAR DELMARVA. THERE
MAY BE A BURST OF RELATIVELY CHILLY /NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR/ CANADIAN AIR IN ITS WAKE BY TUESDAY BUT THIS IS STILL IN
THE CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY TIME FRAME.
THE DAILIES...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...BLENDED 12Z/20 NCEP MOS
GUIDANCE BENEATH THE RELATIVELY DRY ALOFT-STRONG RIDGE. LIGHT WIND.
FOG AND STRATUS...MAY NOT BE QUITE AS EXTENSIVE. THE REASONING...A
TENDENCY FOR A WLY BL WIND DEVELOPING EARLY THU. CALLED IT PATCHY
FOG FOR NOW AND MAY NOT HAVE ENOUGH FOG MENTIONED IN THE ZONES.
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON FRIDAY...WIND TENDS TO
BECOME WESTERLY AND WARMER. A VERY GOOD CHANCE OF RECORD WARMTH ON
ONE OF THESE TWO DAYS...THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. CONTINUED RELATIVELY
DRY...IN PART BECAUSE OF THE NEAR 560 WARM THICKNESSES AND NO FOLIAGE
EVAPOTRANSPIRATION CONTRIBUTION. NCEP MOS POPS AGREE WITH THE DRY
PATTERN CONTINUING...DESPITE A CFP...POSSIBLY THRU THE WARMEST
TIME OF THE DAY. THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY AND WE MAY EVENTUALLY
NEED TO ADD A CHC OF A SHOWER OR TSTM FRIDAY. THE ECMWF HAS COOLER
MAX TEMPS ON THURSDAY THAN WHAT WE HAVE POSTED BUT THIS MAY IN
PART BE DUE TO ITS TRYING TO FCST A SHOWER DURING MIDDAY THURSDAY.
FOR NOW...WE ARE DRY AND WARMER THAN THE 12Z/20 ECMWF AND CLOSE TO
12/20 NCEP MEX GUIDANCE.
THIS WEEKEND...A RAINY PERIOD EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
PLAINS STATES LOW TURNING EAST OR ESE TOWARD THE DELMARVA. THE
COMBINATION OF RAIN...AN ONSHORE MARITIME FLOW OFF THE COLDER SSTS
OF THE ATLANTIC /WHICH ARE VARIABLE BUT NEAR 10C/ AND A SWD
INJECTION OF COLDER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
WILL ADD A COOLER FLAVOR COMPARED TO THE READINGS OF THIS
WORKWEEK. HPC GUIDANCE TEMPS ACCEPTED WHICH ARE COLDER THAN THE
12Z/20 GFS MEX GUIDANCE TEMPS. TODAY`S EC STICKS WITH THESE COLDER
TEMPS. OUR POPS ARE LIKELY FOR NOW... BUT UNDOUBTEDLY THERE HAS TO
BE INTERMITTENT RAIN FOR AT LEAST ONE OF THESE TWO WEEKEND DAYS
AND THERE MAY BE E QUITE A LOT. WOULD NOT SURPRISE TO SEE 2 INCH
AMTS...ESPECIALLY S NJ SE PA SWD CLOSER TO SLOW MOVING CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS /THUNDER IS A POSSIBILITY THERE BUT NOT GRIDDED ATTM/.
EARLY NEXT WEEK...NCEP FAIR WX GUIDANCE ACCEPTED AS HIGH PRESSURE
APPROACHES WITH A DECENT BURST OF NLY FLOW CAA...STILL A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL BUT NOT NEARLY THE RECENT EXTREMES.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
WE ARE VERY CONFIDENT ABOUT IFR CONDITIONS SPREADING ACROSS THE
TERMINALS THIS EVENING AND ENVELOPING ALL BY 06Z OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS
ARE ALREADY DEVELOPING NEAR THE COAST AND TIMING IN GENERAL WAS
ZERO TO TWO HOURS FASTER THAN LAST NIGHT. WE ARE FORECASTING
PREVAILING LIFR CONDITIONS TO OCCUR INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WE
FOLLOWED THE SAME IMPROVEMENT SCENARIO AS TODAY, VSBYS GO VFR
ABOUT AN HOUR BEFORE THE IFR STRATUS CIG DISSIPATES TO VFR
CONDITIONS. EXCEPTION IS WE HELD THE IFR STRATUS CIG LONGER INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AT KACY. NOT CONFIDENT ABOUT KACY, BUT
ELSEWHERE FORECAST MOISTURE LEVELS ABOVE THE GROUND ARE MEAGER
ENOUGH THAT ONLY SCATTERED NON CIG VFR CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
IN THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL START LIGHT FROM THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST AND BECOME CALM
IN MOST PLACES. THE PREVAILING DIRECTION ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH. A SEA AND POSSIBLY BAY BREEZE FRONT SHOULD
FORM ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH MORE DETAILS AS WE COME CLOSER IN
TIME.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AT LEAST PATCHY IFR/LIFR STRATUS AND FOG ARE
PROBABLE AGAIN...ESPECIALLY LATE. LIGHT WIND TRENDING SW LATE.
THURSDAY...ANY MORNING IFR/LIFR GIVES WAY TO VFR CONDS AND WIND
TRENDING SW OR W IN THE AFTN G10-15 KTS.
FRIDAY...VFR. LIGHT WLY WIND AHEAD OF THE CFP THEN SHIFTING N OR E
FOLLOWING CFP. IFR STRATUS OR FOG MAY DEVELOP AT NIGHT IN THE LIGHT
ATLANTIC MARITIME EASTERLY FLOW. /LOW PROB A LINE OF SCT SHOWERS OR
TSTMS NEAR THE CF FRIDAY AFTN?/
THIS WEEKEND...MVFR/IFR CONDS DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY IN SHOWERY RAINS WITH E FLOW SAT AND GUSTY N-NE FLOW 15 TO
25 KTS SUNDAY. SMALL CHC OF THUNDER S OF PHL.
&&
.MARINE...
A WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED NEAR THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND AND A VERY WEAK MESO
LOW JUST TO OUR SOUTH OFF THE DELMARVA COAST. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THIS PERIOD. E WINDS 5 TO 10
KT WILL BECOME SE WEDNESDAY AND THEN TURN MORE S`RLY LATE IN THE DAY.
THE LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE VERY MOIST AND WILL ALLOW FOG TO
FORM OR MOVE BACK OVER OUR WATERS TONIGHT. SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW
SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HANGING ALONG COASTAL SECTIONS THIS
AFTERNOON. ONCE THE DAYTIME HEATING ENDS, THIS AREA SHOULD EXPAND
RATHER QUICKLY. IF VSBYS DROP LOW ENOUGH OVER A WIDE PORTION OF
OUR AREA, A MARINE ADVISORY, OR AT THE VERY LEAST, A MARINE WEATHER
STATEMENT MAY BE NEEDED. ALL MARINERS SHOULD BE AWARE THAT VSBYS
COULD DROP QUICKLY IN AREAS OF FOG LATER TONIGHT. THE FOG WILL
LIFT WEDNESDAY, MUCH AS IT DID TODAY.
OUTLOOK...
NO HEADLINES ATTM FORESEEN THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. LIGHT WINDS...
TENDING TO BE MAINLY SOUTH OR SE WITH A CFP OF SHIFTING WIND FRIDAY.
A STRONG PROBABILITY FOR STRONG SCA CONDITIONS LATE SATURDAY OR
MORE LIKELY SUNDAY IN STRENGTHENING NE FLOW SHIFTING N AND ATLC
SEAS BUILDING TO 6-8 FT.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD MAXS NOT ALL OF THESE WILL BE AT RISK OF EXCEEDENCE.
TODAY`S REVIEW OF FCST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS FRIDAY THE MORE
LIKELY DAY FOR MANY RECORDS BUT...IF THERE IS NO RAIN ON THURSDAY AND
A DECENT WSW WIND WITH PLENTY OF SS...THERE WOULD ALSO BE A NUMBER
OF RECORDS ON THURSDAY AS WELL.
3/22 3/23
ACY 84-1948 79-1907 POR 1874
PHL 80-1948 78-1938/1907 POR 1872
ILG 82-1948 78-1994/1923 POR 1894
ABE 75-1929 73-1979/1923 POR 1922
TTN 79-1938 79-1938 POR 1865
GED 78-1955 80-2007 POR 1948
RDG 83-1938 79-1938 POR 1869
MPO 73-1938 70-1938 POR 1901
FOR THE THE FIRST 19 DAYS... DAILY MEAN TEMPS SO FAR ARE
KABE PLUS 10.7F
KACY PLUS 9.1F
KGED PLUS 9.2F
KPHL PLUS 8.9F
KRDG PLUS 10.2F
KTTN PLUS 11.0F
KILG PLUS 8.8F
KMPO PLUS 12.0F
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...GIGI/RPW
SHORT TERM...RPW
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...DRAG/GIGI
MARINE...DRAG/RPW
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
606 PM EDT TUE MAR 20 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK COASTAL LOW PRESSURE NEAR NORFOLK VIRGINIA WILL DISSIPATE WEDNESDAY.
OTHERWISE...STRONG AND LARGE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST NORTH OF BERMUDA
WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD THIS WEEKEND. THAT WILL PERMIT A COLD FRONT TO
SETTLE SOUTH INTO DELMARVA FRIDAY. THEREAFTER...PLAINS STATES LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS EASTWARD ALONG THAT FRONT TO NEAR DELMARVA SUNDAY
MORNING AND THEN OUT TO SEA SUNDAY EVENING. A SOUTHWARD EXTENSION
OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE ALONG THE EAST COAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
SHORT TERM UPDATE BASED ON LATEST HRRR TO REMOVE MENTION OF SHRAS
STARTING NOW. HRRR SWINGS SOME SHRAS ACROSS NERN CWA OVERNIGHT,
NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH GIVEN THE TIME OF DAY TO INCLUDE WITH THIS
UPDATE. TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS ADJUSTED BASED ON CURRENT OBS,
MOST OF WHICH WERE NUDGED UP SLIGHTLY.
THE MESO LOW, JUST OFF THE DELMARVA COAST, KEEPING CLOUDS OVER
SOUTHERN DELAWARE AND COASTAL SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY. THE MESO LOW,
ALONG WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST OFF THE TIP OF EASTERN
LONG ISLAND, WILL KEEP A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW OVER OUR FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. THAT WILL MEAN ANOTHER NIGHT WITH PLENTY OF FOG. ONCE THE
SUN SETS, THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD PUSH QUICKLY INLAND.
EXPECT CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING TO BE
SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING. IN OTHER WORDS, WITH AREAS OF DENSE FOG,
THERE COULD BE ANOTHER DENSE FOG ADVISORY. IF ONE IS NEEDED, IT
WILL BE ISSUED ONCE WE CAN GET A HANDLE ON THE AREAS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED. WITH DEWPOINTS ON THE HIGH SIDE AND CLOUDS/FOG EXPECTED
TO ROLL IN, OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN QUITE HIGH. I
ACTUALLY WENT SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE MET/MAV AVERAGE. COULD BE A FEW
SPRINKLES IN THE FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, BUT DID
NOT PUT THEM IN THE GRIDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
LOOKS LIKE WEDNESDAY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY, WITH THE FOG
AND LOW CLOUDS GRADUALLY GIVING WAY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL ACTUALLY BE BUILDING INTO
A BERMUDA TYPE HIGH. LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH LATE IN THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL, ONCE AGAIN,
CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S AND 70S, WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS
ALONG COASTAL SECTIONS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TEMPS: CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THIS PERIOD THOUGH THE EXCESSIVE
15 TO 25 DEGREE CALENDER DAY ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH OF THIS WEEK WILL
BE TEMPORARILY SUBDUED TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL LATER THIS WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ALOFT: THE BROAD VERY STRONG RIDGE WITH ITS STRONGEST N-S AXIS JUST
WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL BE CUT BACK ON ITS EASTERN ATLANTIC
FLANK BY A SERIES OF STRONG SHORT WAVES. TWO OF THOSE SHORT WAVES
MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE VICINITY HUDSON BAY CANADA THROUGH THE
MARITIMES (1) THURSDAY FRIDAY AND (2) SUNDAY MONDAY...WHILE THE
HUGE SOUTHERN ROCKIES VORTEX SLOWLY WEAKENS AFTER ITS NORTHEASTWARD
EXIT OUT OF THE PLAINS STATES FRIDAY...SHOVING EASTWARD OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE SUNDAY.
SURFACE: STRONG HIGH PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF BERMUDA WILL SHIFT
SOUTHWARD THIS WEEKEND PERMITTING A CANADIAN COLD FRONT TO
SETTLE SOUTH INTO DELMARVA FRIDAY. THEREAFTER THE REMAINS OF THE
PLAINS STATES LOW TRACKS ALONG THE FRONT TO NEAR DELMARVA. THERE
MAY BE A BURST OF RELATIVELY CHILLY /NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR/ CANADIAN AIR IN ITS WAKE BY TUESDAY BUT THIS IS STILL IN
THE CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY TIME FRAME.
THE DAILIES...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...BLENDED 12Z/20 NCEP MOS
GUIDANCE BENEATH THE RELATIVELY DRY ALOFT-STRONG RIDGE. LIGHT WIND.
FOG AND STRATUS...MAY NOT BE QUITE AS EXTENSIVE. THE REASONING...A
TENDENCY FOR A WLY BL WIND DEVELOPING EARLY THU. CALLED IT PATCHY
FOG FOR NOW AND MAY NOT HAVE ENOUGH FOG MENTIONED IN THE ZONES.
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON FRIDAY...WIND TENDS TO
BECOME WESTERLY AND WARMER. A VERY GOOD CHANCE OF RECORD WARMTH ON
ONE OF THESE TWO DAYS...THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. CONTINUED RELATIVELY
DRY...IN PART BECAUSE OF THE NEAR 560 WARM THICKNESSES AND NO FOLIAGE
EVAPOTRANSPIRATION CONTRIBUTION. NCEP MOS POPS AGREE WITH THE DRY
PATTERN CONTINUING...DESPITE A CFP...POSSIBLY THRU THE WARMEST
TIME OF THE DAY. THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY AND WE MAY EVENTUALLY
NEED TO ADD A CHC OF A SHOWER OR TSTM FRIDAY. THE ECMWF HAS COOLER
MAX TEMPS ON THURSDAY THAN WHAT WE HAVE POSTED BUT THIS MAY IN
PART BE DUE TO ITS TRYING TO FCST A SHOWER DURING MIDDAY THURSDAY.
FOR NOW...WE ARE DRY AND WARMER THAN THE 12Z/20 ECMWF AND CLOSE TO
12/20 NCEP MEX GUIDANCE.
THIS WEEKEND...A RAINY PERIOD EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
PLAINS STATES LOW TURNING EAST OR ESE TOWARD THE DELMARVA. THE
COMBINATION OF RAIN...AN ONSHORE MARITIME FLOW OFF THE COLDER SSTS
OF THE ATLANTIC /WHICH ARE VARIABLE BUT NEAR 10C/ AND A SWD
INJECTION OF COLDER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
WILL ADD A COOLER FLAVOR COMPARED TO THE READINGS OF THIS
WORKWEEK. HPC GUIDANCE TEMPS ACCEPTED WHICH ARE COLDER THAN THE
12Z/20 GFS MEX GUIDANCE TEMPS. TODAY`S EC STICKS WITH THESE COLDER
TEMPS. OUR POPS ARE LIKELY FOR NOW... BUT UNDOUBTEDLY THERE HAS TO
BE INTERMITTENT RAIN FOR AT LEAST ONE OF THESE TWO WEEKEND DAYS
AND THERE MAY BE E QUITE A LOT. WOULD NOT SURPRISE TO SEE 2 INCH
AMTS...ESPECIALLY S NJ SE PA SWD CLOSER TO SLOW MOVING CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS /THUNDER IS A POSSIBILITY THERE BUT NOT GRIDDED ATTM/.
EARLY NEXT WEEK...NCEP FAIR WX GUIDANCE ACCEPTED AS HIGH PRESSURE
APPROACHES WITH A DECENT BURST OF NLY FLOW CAA...STILL A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL BUT NOT NEARLY THE RECENT EXTREMES.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOUTHERN DELAWARE AND EXTREME
SOUTHERN COASTAL NEW JERSEY, WHERE LOW CLOUDS PERSISTED. ONCE WE
LOSE THE DAYTIME HEATING, EXPECT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO MOVE IN
FROM THE EAST RATHER QUICKLY. ALL OF OUR TAF SITES ARE FORECAST TO
BECOME IFR/LIFR AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THESE CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST UNTIL MID OR LATE MORNING WEDNESDAY. THIS
WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT HAPPENED LAST NIGHT INTO THIS
MORNING. ONCE THE SUN BEGINS TO WORK IT`S MAGIC WEDNESDAY,
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY AROUND MIDDAY. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, BECOMING MORE
SOUTHERLY LATE IN THE DAY.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AT LEAST PATCHY IFR/LIFR STRATUS AND FOG ARE
PROBABLE AGAIN...ESPECIALLY LATE. LIGHT WIND TRENDING SW LATE.
THURSDAY...ANY MORNING IFR/LIFR GIVES WAY TO VFR CONDS AND WIND
TRENDING SW OR W IN THE AFTN G10-15 KTS.
FRIDAY...VFR. LIGHT WLY WIND AHEAD OF THE CFP THEN SHIFTING N OR E
FOLLOWING CFP. IFR STRATUS OR FOG MAY DEVELOP AT NIGHT IN THE LIGHT
ATLANTIC MARITIME EASTERLY FLOW. /LOW PROB A LINE OF SCT SHOWERS OR
TSTMS NEAR THE CF FRIDAY AFTN?/
THIS WEEKEND...MVFR/IFR CONDS DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY IN SHOWERY RAINS WITH E FLOW SAT AND GUSTY N-NE FLOW 15 TO
25 KTS SUNDAY. SMALL CHC OF THUNDER S OF PHL.
&&
.MARINE...
A WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED NEAR THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND AND A VERY WEAK MESO
LOW JUST TO OUR SOUTH OFF THE DELMARVA COAST. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THIS PERIOD. E WINDS 5 TO 10
KT WILL BECOME SE WEDNESDAY AND THEN TURN MORE S`RLY LATE IN THE DAY.
THE LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE VERY MOIST AND WILL ALLOW FOG TO
FORM OR MOVE BACK OVER OUR WATERS TONIGHT. SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW
SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HANGING ALONG COASTAL SECTIONS THIS
AFTERNOON. ONCE THE DAYTIME HEATING ENDS, THIS AREA SHOULD EXPAND
RATHER QUICKLY. IF VSBYS DROP LOW ENOUGH OVER A WIDE PORTION OF
OUR AREA, A MARINE ADVISORY, OR AT THE VERY LEAST, A MARINE WEATHER
STATEMENT MAY BE NEEDED. ALL MARINERS SHOULD BE AWARE THAT VSBYS
COULD DROP QUICKLY IN AREAS OF FOG LATER TONIGHT. THE FOG WILL
LIFT WEDNESDAY, MUCH AS IT DID TODAY.
OUTLOOK...
NO HEADLINES ATTM FORESEEN THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. LIGHT WINDS...
TENDING TO BE MAINLY SOUTH OR SE WITH A CFP OF SHIFTING WIND FRIDAY.
A STRONG PROBABILITY FOR STRONG SCA CONDITIONS LATE SATURDAY OR
MORE LIKELY SUNDAY IN STRENGTHENING NE FLOW SHIFTING N AND ATLC
SEAS BUILDING TO 6-8 FT.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD MAXS NOT ALL OF THESE WILL BE AT RISK OF EXCEEDENCE.
TODAY`S REVIEW OF FCST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS FRIDAY THE MORE
LIKELY DAY FOR MANY RECORDS BUT...IF THERE IS NO RAIN ON THURSDAY AND
A DECENT WSW WIND WITH PLENTY OF SS...THERE WOULD ALSO BE A NUMBER
OF RECORDS ON THURSDAY AS WELL.
3/22 3/23
ACY 84-1948 79-1907 POR 1874
PHL 80-1948 78-1938/1907 POR 1872
ILG 82-1948 78-1994/1923 POR 1894
ABE 75-1929 73-1979/1923 POR 1922
TTN 79-1938 79-1938 POR 1865
GED 78-1955 80-2007 POR 1948
RDG 83-1938 79-1938 POR 1869
MPO 73-1938 70-1938 POR 1901
FOR THE THE FIRST 19 DAYS... DAILY MEAN TEMPS SO FAR ARE
KABE PLUS 10.7F
KACY PLUS 9.1F
KGED PLUS 9.2F
KPHL PLUS 8.9F
KRDG PLUS 10.2F
KTTN PLUS 11.0F
KILG PLUS 8.8F
KMPO PLUS 12.0F
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...GIGI/RPW
SHORT TERM...RPW
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...DRAG/RPW
MARINE...DRAG/RPW
CLIMATE...DRAG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
230 PM MDT TUE MAR 20 2012
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT TUE MAR 20 2012
EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RUC H5 ANALYSIS SHOW LONGWAVE TROUGH
DRAPED ACROSS THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST WITH A CLOSED CIRCULATION
CENTERED OVER WESTERN TEXAS/EASTERN NEW MEXICO. THIS CLOSED LOW
WILL BE THE BIG WEATHER MAKER FOR OUR AREA THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.
FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE ON TRACK WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS OVER
CENTRAL KS ALREADY MOVING TOWARDS CWA. THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
SPREAD INTO THE CWA FROM THE E/SE AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH
THE NIGHTTIME PERIOD. MODEL SOUNDING ANALYSIS WOULD SUPPORT MAINLY
RAIN FOR THE EVENT. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A RAIN/SNOW CHANGE
OVER BASED ON FAVORABLE WBZ HEIGHTS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
CWA IN THE 09-12Z TIME-FRAME TONIGHT. AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY
SHIFTS NORTH...MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE INTO THE
CWA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA. I LEFT ISO THUNDERSTORM MENTION WED
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WHERE ECMWF/GFS STILL SHOWS WEAK ELEVATED
INSTABILITY. OVERALL IT LOOKS LIKE WE COULD SEE DECENT RAINFALL
OUT OF THIS WITH 0.50-1.00" OF RAIN POSSIBLE FOR THE EVENT.
AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS NORTH THURSDAY A DRY SLOT WILL WORK ITS
WAY W/NW INTO OUR CWA. GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A
BAND OF PRECIP LINGERING OVER THE WESTERN CWA THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH DECREASING COVERAGE IN THE EAST. IN THE EXTREME SE
PART OF THE CWA CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW CENTER THERE COULD STILL
BE ADDITIONAL SHOWER RE-DEVELOPMENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
COLD POOL ALOFT...SO I ONLY TRENDED POPS DOWN FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT OVER EASTERN LOCATIONS.
LOW TEMPS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE HELD UP BY WIND AND
CLOUD COVER...SO VALUES SHOULD REMAIN IN MID 30S TO NEAR 40 FOR
MOST OF THE AREA. HIGH TEMPS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL ALSO BE
AFFECTED BY PRECIP/CLOUDS....WITH THE COOLEST DAY ON WEDNESDAY
WITH TEMPS STRUGGLING TO WARM ABOVE THE UPPER 40S OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL MODERATE SOME
WITH VALUES GENERALLY IN THE MID-UPPER 50S FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT TUE MAR 20 2012
A RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
AS A STRONG RIDGE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL US. WHILE THE ENTIRE
EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE ABOVE NORMAL...HIGH TEMPS SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY COULD APPROACH RECORD LEVELS SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW
DURING OUR WARM-UP LAST WEEK. HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
70S ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY...AND WITH VALUES IN THE LOW 80S OVER
A LARGE PART OF THE AREA POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST TOWARDS THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY AS THE H5 RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOW. A COLD FRONT
WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA BY TUESDAY. THE MAIN EFFECT WILL BE
TO BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION WITH VALUES IN THE LOW-
UPPER 60S FOR MUCH OF THE CWA. THERE IS SOME INDICATION OF
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH A DRY LINE LINGERING
OVER THE CWA AND INSTABILITY BUILDING INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL
KANSAS. A STRONG CAP AND VERY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE WILL LIMIT
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...SO I LEFT MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM MDT TUE MAR 20 2012
FOR THIS AFTERNOON...VFR CIGS AND VIS ARE EXPECTED. SFC WINDS
WILL SLOWLY EASE BACK UNDER SCT-BKN CLOUDS. OVERNIGHT TONIGHT SHRA
WILL DEVELOP AT BOTH MCK AND GLD. AT THAT TIME MVRF CIGS AND VIS
SHOULD DEVELOP AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. SFC WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE BY DAWN AND CONTINUE OUT OF THE NORTH
NORTHEAST.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM....DR
AVIATION...05
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
314 PM CDT TUE MAR 20 2012
...UPDATED SYNOPSIS AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT TUE MAR 20 2012
A LARGE MID LEVEL CYCLONE WAS CENTERED OVER WEST TEXAS THIS
AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON RUC MODEL WAS ANALYZING A -30C COLD CORE
CENTER AT 500MB NEAR MIDLAND, TX. THERE WAS A 110KT SPEED MAX STILL
ON THE WEST-SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE LOW AT 400MB ALONG THE AZ-NM
BORDER. A WEAK SURFACE LOW WAS TRYING TO REFORM FROM THE EASTERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE IN RESPONSE TO THE MID LEVEL LOW CENTER AND RENEWED
POTENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION IN THIS AREA. FROM THIS SURFACE
LOW...A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDED INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND
WEST-CENTRAL KANSAS...WHICH AT 19Z WAS FROM JUST EAST OF LIBERAL TO
JUST WEST OF DODGE CITY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TO JUST WEST OF HAYS.
UP IN THE HAYS AREA...SHOWERS HAD DEVELOPED NEAR THIS BOUNDARY AND
ENHANCED LOW LEVEL VERTICAL VORTICITY AND A FEW REPORTS OF FUNNEL
CLOUDS RESULTED. THE ANALYZED SURFACE-BASED CAPE IN THIS AREA WAS
AT BEST 100 J/KG OR SO. PRECIPITATION WAS INCREASING OVER THE
EASTERN OK PANHANDLE AND INTO ADJACENT MEADE, CLARK, COMANCHE,
BARBER COUNTIES IN AN ENHANCED AREA OF 700MB DEFORMATION AND
CONVERGENCE AS OF 20Z.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT TUE MAR 20 2012
WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL BE MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS THIS EVENING.
THE LATEST POP/WX GRIDS REFLECT THIS AND NOW THE MAIN CHALLENGE IS
HOW MUCH WILL FALL BETWEEN NOW AND EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. THE
PRECIPITATION AREA MENTIONED IN THE SYNOPSIS WILL GROW AND EXPAND
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A
MESOSCALE MID-LEVEL PV ANOMALY SURGES NORTHWARD THROUGH WESTERN
OKLAHOMA. THIS WILL ENHANCE THE 700-800MB CONVERGENCE/DEFORMATION
LEADING TO ENHANCED PRECIPITATION RATES PARTICULARLY OVER THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER TONIGHT.
THIS DEFORMATION AXIS WILL THEN PIVOT WESTWARD WITH RESULTING
PRECIPITATION RATES SHIFTING NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY. THROUGH DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY...WE ARE LOOKING AT THE
POTENTIAL FOR A HALF INCH OF RAIN IN AREAS FROM MEADE TO CIMARRON
AND POINTS EAST TO PRATT AND MEDICINE LODGE. ELSEWHERE NORTH AND
EAST OF THIS AREA...A GENERAL TWO TO THREE TENTHS OF AN INCH IS
EXPECTED. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AFTER 12Z
WEDNESDAY WHICH IS DISCUSSED IN THE LONG TERM SECTION. TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT DURING THE RAINFALL EVENT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY
STEADY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH
NORTHEAST...BECOMING NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH AS THE SURFACE LOW
SLOWLY SHIFTS INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT TUE MAR 20 2012
THE AREA OF DEEPLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE WILL ROTATE SLOWLY
NORTHWARD FROM NORTH TEXAS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, AND ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS TO POINTS EAST BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. AS
A RESULT, WESTERN KANSAS CAN EXPECT A PERIOD OF ABOUT 36-48 HOURS OF
CLOUDY, COOL AND AT TIMES WET CONDITIONS. BASED ON THE GFS, ECMWF
AND NAM MODELS, GOOD UPPER DEFORMATION WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY EVENING
ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS. THAT IS WHERE ORGANIZED RAINFALL IS MOST
LIKELY TO DEVELOP, ALTHOUGH SOME SHOWERS MIGHT HAVE ALREADY BEGUN
FARTHER EAST IN CENTRAL KANSAS NEAR THE MOIST CONVEYOR
BELT/ISENTROPIC LIFT ZONE. THE MID LEVEL COLD POOL IN THE NAM IS
BETWEEN -25 AND -30 DEGREES C. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH
SURFACED BASED INSTABILITY IS NOT A CONCERN, THE MOST UNSTABLE CAPES
DO CAUSE CONCERN FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS, AND THIS WILL
BE THE CASE BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE GFS ENSEMBLES DO NOT
OFFER A LOT OF SPREAD ON MONDAY WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE OF HIGH
TEMPERATURES NOT EXCEEDING THE LOW 50S, AND WE`VE USED A CONSENSUS
MOS WHICH IS AMONG THE COOLEST SOLUTIONS FOR THE DAY. THE GFSMOS
ALSO APPEARS TO HAVE AS GOOD OF A SOLUTION FOR EARLY MORNING
THURSDAY TEMPERATURES (IN THE 30S). GOOD AGREEMENT EXISTS IN THE
GLOBAL MODELS THAT BY FRIDAY, THE POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW WILL BE
FAR ENOUGH EAST THAT THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE MINIMAL.
THEREFORE WE MIGHT EXPECT CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT THURSDAY WITH
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS STILL EAST OF HIGHWAY 283 WITH FULL
SUN IN THE AFTERNOON AND INCREASING DEEP WARM AIR ADVECTION. THE
MODELS DON`T HAVE THE SAME RIDGE PATTERN THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND
INTO THE WEEKEND, BUT WARMING CONDITIONS SHOULD BE EXPECTED. THE
WEEKEND COULD BE FAIRLY MILD IN THE UPPER 60S, TO WARM NEAR OR
EXCEEDING 80S DEGREES FOR HIGHS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 104 PM CDT TUE MAR 20 2012
THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE FOR AVIATION WILL BE FLIGHT CATEGORY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...AND INTO THURSDAY. THE UPPER LOW
WILL BE POSITIONED SOUTH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS WITH MOIST FLOW
BRINGING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND AREAS OF STEADY RAIN TO ALL THREE
TERMINALS (DDC, GCK, HYS). THE GOING FORECAST CALLS FOR PREVAILING
RAIN FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT TONIGHT WITH AVERAGE CEILING IN THE IFR
RANGE. THE CONFIDENCE IS NOT TREMENDOUSLY HIGH IN THE CEILING
FORECAST AS HEAVIER RAIN AREAS WILL MODULATE THE CEILING...SO
CEILINGS WILL LIKELY FLUCTUATE FROM 700 FEET TO 1500 MOST OF THE
NIGHT TONIGHT AND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY. DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS...THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF LIFR...HOWEVER
CURRENT TAF DOES NOT REFLECT THIS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 36 53 39 55 / 90 80 50 50
GCK 34 51 37 55 / 90 90 70 30
EHA 32 47 37 55 / 90 90 50 30
LBL 34 50 37 55 / 90 90 40 40
HYS 37 54 39 56 / 80 80 80 40
P28 41 58 41 55 / 90 30 60 70
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...UMSCHEID
SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM....RUSSELL
AVIATION...UMSCHEID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
109 PM CDT TUE MAR 20 2012
...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 18Z TAFS...
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 927 AM CDT TUE MAR 20 2012
THE RATHER NARROW CORRIDOR OF DENSE FOG HAS QUICKLY DISSIPATED IN
THE DODGE CITY AREA. A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST HAS
OCCURRED IN THE SCOTT CITY AND GARDEN CITY AREA WITH THIS TROUGH
AXIS CONTINUING TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST. THE DENSE FOG WILL
LIKELY BE CANCELLED BY 15Z. THE NEXT FOCUS OF ATTENTION WILL BE
THE NEXT ROUND OF RAIN CHANCES. SHORT TERM MODELS SUCH AS THE 13KM
RUC AND 4KM HRRR INDICATE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT IN INCREASING
800-700MB SOUTHEASTERLY MOIST FLOW AFTER 18Z. AS A RESULT HAVE
BUMPED UP POPS TO HIGH CHANCE/LIKELY CATEGORY DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS GENERALLY SOUTHEAST OF A LIBERAL TO CIMARRON TO HAYS LINE.
POPS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE BY EARLY EVENING AND ESPECIALLY
OVERNIGHT TO 80-90 PERCENT OF MUCH OF THE SAME AREAS AS IMPRESSIVE
SSE TO NNW FLOW SPREADS MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT INTO
SOUTHWEST KANSAS ON THE NORTHEAST...AND EVENTUALLY NORTH SIDE OF
THE ROBUST UPPER LOW.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 748 AM CDT TUE MAR 20 2012
VISIBILITY HAS DROPPED TO 1/4SM IN DENSE FOG AT DDC THIS MORNING IN
A ZONE OF LOW SURFACE DEPRESSIONS AND SURFACE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
ALONG AND AHEAD OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY. AS A RESULT WE`VE ADDED AREAS
OF FOG TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS MORNING THOUGH AT LEAST 15 UTC AND
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS FOG DEVELOPMENT. DENSE FOG APPEARS
TO BE ON THE UPTREND AND A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 238 AM CDT TUE MAR 20 2012
A LOW PRESSURE CENTER AT THE 500MB LEVEL WAS NEAR THE NEW MEXICO
AND COLORADO BORDER AT 20/00Z. THIS LOW HAS BEEN DEVELOPING CLOSE
TO WHAT THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE FORECAST, FOR ABOUT THE PAST
5 MODEL RUNS. EAST OF THAT UPPER LOW THERE IS A DEEP JET STREAM IN
THE 120KT RANGE FROM WESTERN OKLAHOMA NORTHWARD WELL INTO WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. LOWER IN THE ATMOSPHERE NEAR THE 850MB LEVEL, A LOW
WAS SITUATED OVER EAST-CENTRAL COLORADO, WITH A 30 TO 40KT JET FLOW
OVER WESTERN KANSAS. FOR THIS REASON, ALONG WITH CURRENT DEW
POINTS IN THE LOWER 50S ACROSS OUR EASTERN CWA, THINK THERE WILL
BE RAIN DEVELOPING IN OUR EAST BY NOON, AND WORKING WESTWARD
DURING THE AFTERNOON. RAIN MAY NOT WRAP AROUND ALL THE WAY WESTWARD
INTO OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES UNTIL AFTER 00Z. POPS WILL BE
HIGHEST IN THE EAST, WITH 50 PERCENT POPS ACROSS OUR EASTERN TWO
TIERS OF COUNTIES, GRADUALLY LOWERING TO 30 POPS FROM WAKEENEY TO
COLDWATER, WITH 20 POPS FARTHER WEST. ALSO FOR TODAY, I LOWER MAX
TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES, TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INCREASED CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION. OUR EAST WILL HAVE A HARD TIME REACHING THE MID
50S, WITH THICK CLOUDS AND RAIN MOVING IN EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
THE UPPER LOW WILL CUT OFF AND STRENGTHEN TONIGHT, SO MOISTURE WILL
JUST CONTINUE BE STACKED, ESPECIALLY IN OUR EASTERN FORECAST AREA.
LIKELY 60 POPS WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES
FOR RAIN SHOWERS, BEFORE MIDNIGHT. FARTHER WEST, THERE WILL BE ZONE
OF 30 PERCENT POPS, DECREASING TO 20 PERCENT POPS IN THE NORTHWEST
AND WESTERN ZONES. WILL KEEP PRECIP TYPES AS RAIN SHOWERS BOTH
TODAY AND TONIGHT, BUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION IN OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. SINCE SCOTT CITY SHOWED HOW
FAST DRIER AIR CAN COOL (27F AT 07Z), TONIGHT COULD REALLY COOL DOWN
IN WEST, PERHAPS INTO THE LOWER 30S. OUR EAST ZONES WILL MODERATE
AND MINS SHOULD DIP INTO THE MID 30S NEAR HAYS AND THE LOWER 40S
AROUND MEDICINE LODGE AND COLDWATER.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT TUE MAR 20 2012
THE AREA OF DEEPLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE WILL ROTATE SLOWLY
NORTHWARD FROM NORTH TEXAS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, AND ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS TO POINTS EAST BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. AS
A RESULT, WESTERN KANSAS CAN EXPECT A PERIOD OF ABOUT 36-48 HOURS OF
CLOUDY, COOL AND AT TIMES WET CONDITIONS. BASED ON THE GFS, ECMWF
AND NAM MODELS, GOOD UPPER DEFORMATION WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY EVENING
ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS. THAT IS WHERE ORGANIZED RAINFALL IS MOST
LIKELY TO DEVELOP, ALTHOUGH SOME SHOWERS MIGHT HAVE ALREADY BEGUN
FARTHER EAST IN CENTRAL KANSAS NEAR THE MOIST CONVEYOR
BELT/ISENTROPIC LIFT ZONE. THE MID LEVEL COLD POOL IN THE NAM IS
BETWEEN -25 AND -30 DEGREES C. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH
SURFACED BASED INSTABILITY IS NOT A CONCERN, THE MOST UNSTABLE CAPES
DO CAUSE CONCERN FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS, AND THIS WILL
BE THE CASE BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE GFS ENSEMBLES DO NOT
OFFER A LOT OF SPREAD ON MONDAY WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE OF HIGH
TEMPERATURES NOT EXCEEDING THE LOW 50S, AND WE`VE USED A CONSENSUS
MOS WHICH IS AMONG THE COOLEST SOLUTIONS FOR THE DAY. THE GFSMOS
ALSO APPEARS TO HAVE AS GOOD OF A SOLUTION FOR EARLY MORNING
THURSDAY TEMPERATURES (IN THE 30S). GOOD AGREEMENT EXISTS IN THE
GLOBAL MODELS THAT BY FRIDAY, THE POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW WILL BE
FAR ENOUGH EAST THAT THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE MINIMAL.
THEREFORE WE MIGHT EXPECT CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT THURSDAY WITH
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS STILL EAST OF HIGHWAY 283 WITH FULL
SUN IN THE AFTERNOON AND INCREASING DEEP WARM AIR ADVECTION. THE
MODELS DON`T HAVE THE SAME RIDGE PATTERN THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND
INTO THE WEEKEND, BUT WARMING CONDITIONS SHOULD BE EXPECTED. THE
WEEKEND COULD BE FAIRLY MILD IN THE UPPER 60S, TO WARM NEAR OR
EXCEEDING 80S DEGREES FOR HIGHS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 104 PM CDT TUE MAR 20 2012
THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE FOR AVIATION WILL BE FLIGHT CATEGORY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...AND INTO THURSDAY. THE UPPER LOW
WILL BE POSITIONED SOUTH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS WITH MOIST FLOW
BRINGING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND AREAS OF STEADY RAIN TO ALL THREE
TERMINALS (DDC, GCK, HYS). THE GOING FORECAST CALLS FOR PREVAILING
RAIN FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT TONIGHT WITH AVERAGE CEILING IN THE IFR
RANGE. THE CONFIDENCE IS NOT TREMENDOUSLY HIGH IN THE CEILING
FORECAST AS HEAVIER RAIN AREAS WILL MODULATE THE CEILING...SO
CEILINGS WILL LIKELY FLUCTUATE FROM 700 FEET TO 1500 MOST OF THE
NIGHT TONIGHT AND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY. DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS...THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF LIFR...HOWEVER
CURRENT TAF DOES NOT REFLECT THIS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT TUE MAR 20 2012
WITH COOL TO MILD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK, CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. ONCE
THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK, INCREASING CHANCES
FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. HOWEVER, THIS
WILL LIKELY BE RELEGATED TO THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES BY SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 36 53 39 55 / 90 80 50 50
GCK 34 51 37 55 / 70 90 70 30
EHA 32 47 37 55 / 60 90 50 30
LBL 34 50 37 55 / 80 90 40 40
HYS 37 54 39 56 / 70 80 80 40
P28 41 58 41 55 / 90 30 60 70
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...UMSCHEID
SYNOPSIS...BURKE
SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM....RUSSELL
AVIATION...UMSCHEID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1142 AM MDT TUE MAR 20 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1130 AM MDT TUE MAR 20 2012
UPDATED THE CURRENT PERIOD TO REMOVE POPS IN COLORADO AND TO
BETTER REFLECT TRENDS IN THE CLOUD COVER AND TEMPERATURES. APPEARS
WE ARE STILL ON TRACK FOR -SHRA TO MOVE INTO MY FAR ERN/SE ZONES
LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 436 AM MDT TUE MAR 20 2012
FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE WINDS/PRECIPITATION TYPE EARLY TODAY
FOLLOWED BY THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
THIS LATER PROBLEM WILL DEPEND ON THE BEHAVIOR OF DEVELOPING UPPER
LOW THAT IS CURRENTLY UNDERWAY. SATELLITE SHOWING CONTINUING TO SHOW
AN AMPLIFIED/AMPLIFYING PATTERN FROM THE PACIFIC INTO NORTH AMERICA.
IN FACT FLOW OVER MOST OF THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE IS NOT SHOWING
MUCH EASTWARD MOVEMENT.
OF COURSE MAJOR FEATURE OF INTEREST IS WHAT THE UPPER LOW IS GOING
TO DO. CURRENTLY SOUTHERN END OF A COMPLICATED UPPER TROUGH IS
STARTING TO SAG SOUTH AND DEVELOP INTO THE LOW OF INTEREST. VERY COLD
AIR ALOFT AND STRONGEST WINDS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM
DEFINITELY SUPPORT THIS CONTINUING. MODELS HAVE TRENDED TO MUCH
COOLER AND WETTER THAN 24 HOURS AGO.
AT JET LEVEL...THE CANADIAN WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE OTHER
OUTPUT. AT MID LEVELS...THE NAM...ECMWF...AND CANADIAN WERE DOING
BEST ON THE POSITION OF FEATURES AND THE HEIGHT FIELD. AT THE
SURFACE...VERY EARLY ON THE RUC WAS CATCHING WELL WITH OVERALL THE
ECMWF DOING SLIGHTLY BETTER THAN THE NAM.
TODAY/TONIGHT...INHERITED FORECAST HAD A MIXTURE OF PRECIPITATION.
SATELLITE/RADAR RETURNS HAVE SHOWN RETURNS/CLOUDS OVER THE
NORTHWEST PORTION OF FORECAST AREA AS THE FORECAST DEPICTED. DAY
SHIFT CORRECTLY DIAGNOSED THIS PER FRONTOGENETIC FORCING/LIFT IN
NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF 700 MB CIRCULATION. PROBLEM HAS BEEN DRY
LOWERS SHOWN IN SOUNDINGS AND CONFIRMED BY LARGE T/TD DEPRESSIONS.
MODELS WERE SHOWING THIS AS WELL YESTERDAY. HAVE SEEN LITTLE IF ANY
GROUND TRUTH IN THE AREA. DECIDED TO LEAVE IT IN RIGHT TO SEE IF IT
DEVELOPS...AND REVISIT THIS AT THE TIME OF THE NEXT ESTF UPDATE.
NEXT PROBLEM IS THE WINDS. 00Z MODELS WERE BRINGING IN A SHORT BURST
OF WINDS TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. HOWEVER...
FRONT BLASTED THROUGH A LITTLE FASTER THAN EXPECTED HERE WITH THE
WINDS ALREADY DECREASING AND LOSING THERE GUSTINESS. ANALYSIS SHOWS
THAT THE HIGHEST 3 HOUR PRESSURE RISES HAVE GONE THROUGH OR ARE
GOING THROUGH RIGHT NOW. VWPS SHOW NOTHING ABOVE 35 KNOTS THE
COLUMN RIGHT NOW. 06Z GUIDANCE HAS DECREASED WINDS AS WELL. SO
EXPECT WINDS TO STAY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.
NOW ONTO THE PRECIPITATION. MODELS DIFFER A LITTLE ON THE JET
POSITION BUT ALL PUT THE AREA IN THE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF THE JET
MOST OF THE DAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST. THIS JET SEGMENT MOVES OFF
TO THE EAST LATER IN THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT. BY 18Z THE AREA IS IN
UPSLOPE THROUGH 700 MB DUE TO BE IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF 700 MB
LOW AND THIS UPSLOPE DEEPENS THROUGH THE DAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST.
NEW MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BROUGHT PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. PLUS TQ INDEX WOULD INDICATE THAT THE COLD AIR ALOFT
COULD CAUSE INSTABILITY SHOWERS FORM...MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY...AND THE
LAPSE RATES/COLD AIR ALOFT IS BETTER TODAY THAN IT WAS YESTERDAY.
SO PUT IN LOW CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE SOUTHEAST HALF FOR THE
DAY. THIS PRECIPITATION AREA SPREADS SLOWLY EAST DURING THE NIGHT.
AS WILL STATE BELOW...MORE WEIGHT WAS GIVEN TO THE ECMWF AND
ESPECIALLY THE SREF QPF/PROBABILITIES FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
THIS MAKES SENSE WITH THE UPPER LOW POSITION. KEPT PHASE AS RAIN
SINCE BELIEVE HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL BE ADVECTED INTO THE AREA IN
THE DEEP EASTERLY FLOW. BASED ON CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WENT BELOW
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE FOR MAXES.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...IT NOW APPEARS THAT MODEL OUTPUT
IS COMING INTO ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A RATHER LONG DURATION PRECIPITATION
EVENT. TO GO INTO A FULL DISCUSSION ON MODEL DIFFERENCES AND TRENDS
WOULD REQUIRE A NOVEL. MODELS ARE IN CLOSER AGREEMENT BUT STILL
DIFFERENCES OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD ON SPEED AND POSITION OF THE
700-500 MB CIRCULATIONS. GEFS AND CLUSTERING OF THE DETERMINISTIC
MODEL OUTPUT SUPPORTS A SLOWER AND SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH PROGRESSION
OF THE SYSTEM. OVERALL THE ECMWF AND NAM WERE A LITTLE FASTER AND AT
TIME FURTHER TO THE WEST WITH THE CIRCULATION WITH THE UKMET/CANADIAN
ON THE SLOWER/FURTHER SOUTH SIDE. WHAT TENDED TO BE IN THE MIDDLE AND
FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE GEFS OUTPUT WAS THE SREF.
QPF THE ECMWF AND ESPECIALLY FROM THE SREF WAS SIMILAR IN POSITION
TO WHAT HPC WAS DEPICTING. SO FOR THE PERIOD WILL TEND TO FOLLOW
THE SREF/GEFS OUTPUT IN ITS PROGRESSION AND QPF LOCATION. SO
PRECIPITATION SPREAD IN FROM THE EAST/SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE WEST.
GREATEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BEGIN IN THE AFTERNOON AND
ESPECIALLY DURING THE NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. DEPENDING ON THE
SPEED OF THE SYSTEM...PRECIPITATION MAY START DECREASING SOME
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE
THURSDAY NIGHT. MODEL OUTPUT IS SHOWING SOME IMPRESSIVE
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF. HOWEVER...CONSIDERING
UNCERTAINTY ON BEHAVIOR OF SYSTEM/RECENT MODEL PERFORMANCE CHOSE TO
GO IN THE MIDDLE GROUND OF AMOUNTS. WITH DEEP EASTERLY FLOW BELIEVE
DEWPOINTS WILL STAY HIGH ENOUGH THAT PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN
LIQUID. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER AND POSSIBLE THAT
WHAT IS IN THE FORECAST MAY NOT BE COOL ENOUGH IF WETTER SOLUTIONS
PAN OUT.
THANKS TO ALL THAT COLLABORATED.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1237 AM MDT TUE MAR 20 2012
UPPER LOW WILL FINALLY SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY. IN ITS
WAKE...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AND NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM MDT TUE MAR 20 2012
FOR THIS AFTERNOON...VFR CIGS AND VIS ARE EXPECTED. SFC WINDS
WILL SLOWLY EASE BACK UNDER SCT-BKN CLOUDS. OVERNIGHT TONIGHT SHRA
WILL DEVELOP AT BOTH MCK AND GLD. AT THAT TIME MVRF CIGS AND VIS
SHOULD DEVELOP AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. SFC WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE BY DAWN AND CONTINUE OUT OF THE NORTH NORTHEAST.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...05
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM....024
AVIATION...05
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
340 PM CDT TUE MAR 20 2012
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH FRIDAY
340 PM CDT TUE MAR 20 2012
MOST OF THE WORK TODAY CENTERED AROUND TRYING TO FORECAST THE
PROPER RAIN CHANCES...LOCATION AND TIMING THROUGH THURSDAY. THE
MAIN ISSUE IS WEAK FORCING WITH SOME INSTABILITY AROUND...AND
MODELS WANTING TO GENERATE PRECIPITATION FAIRLY LIBERALLY.
AT 19Z...A NORTHERN JET STREAM BRANCH SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS
PROGRESSED A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO CENTRAL MN AND IA...JUST
WEST OF I-35. THIS WILL BE A FOCAL POINT FOR EVENING RAINFALL.
MEANWHILE A SURFACE LOW IS SHIFTING NORTH THROUGH WRN MO WITH
STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW THROUGH IL AND ERN MO WITH 40KTS AT 850 MB
RIDING NORTHWARD INTO THE PROGRESSING FRONT IN MN. MOST OF THE
LOCAL AREA HAS BEEN UNDER RIDGE BUILDING TODAY AS THE STRONG
CLOSED LOW OVER TX IS SLOW TO MOVE. TEMPERATURES AGAIN HAVE
ROCKETED TO 80F IN SWRN WI WHERE FORCING IS MINIMAL AND SKIES ARE
MOSTLY SUNNY. 0-3KM MU CAPES ARE AROUND 400 J/KG IN SWRN WI AS
DEWPOINTS ARE WELL MIXED /AND LOWERED/ IN A 1-1.5 KM DEEP
BOUNDARY LAYER. THERMAL GRADIENT IS PRESENT IN THE LOWEST 300 MB
AGL WITH AN 8C 925MB CHANGE FROM KABR-KMPX IN MORNING RAOBS. ALSO
STARTING TO SEE A CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY FROM BLACK RIVER FALLS TO W
OF KLSE..TO NEAR KCCY.
HAVE BEEN DECREASING RAIN CHANCES ALL DAY TODAY AS THE FORCING IS
REALLY MINIMAL AS LOW-LEVEL WEAK RIDGING OCCURS. THIS HAS CLEARED
OUT ERN IA AND MO OF MOST CLOUD. MODEL GUIDANCE...INCLUDING HRRR
CONTINUES TO PROVIDE WET GUIDANCE IN THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA BUT
THE DETAILS ON THE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE HAVE BEEN HANDLED VERY
POORLY AND TOO FAR EAST...THUS NO PRECIPITATION. INDICATIONS
CONTINUE IN THE 20.12Z NAM/GFS AND LATEST 20.18Z RUC THAT THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BECOME ACTIVE TONIGHT NEAR I-35 WITH
MODERATE FRONTOGENESIS OVER THE FAR WRN FORECAST AREA. RUN-TO-RUN
TRENDS IN THE RUC HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH PLACEMENT AND EVENING
INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH THE SURFACE LOW
SHIFTING NORTH FROM MO AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT OVERNIGHT
TO CAUSE A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN.
BIG CHALLENGE IS HOW FAR WEST OR EAST WILL THIS BAND SET UP.
BELIEVE THE EAST EXTENT OF THE RAIN BAND WILL AFFECT THE WESTERN
FORECAST AREA. WITH FRONTAL ZONE ACTIVE AND INSTABILITY ALOFT
ABOVE THE ZONE...COULD SEE SHOWER ACTIVITY EXTEND EAST TO MISS
RIVER. THERE ARE SOME CONSISTENT SIGNALS THAT A SECOND SURGE OF
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND CONVERGENCE WILL MOVE INTO THE FRONT FROM
THE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT TO ENHANCE THE RAIN CHANCES A BIT FURTHER
EAST TOO. THIS IS LOW- LEVEL JET FORCED. MOST OF WI SHOULD REMAIN
DRY.
SEVERE CHANCES WOULD BE BEST IN WI WHERE CAPE IS BUILDING. BUT
THERE IS LITTLE FORCING IN THIS AREA...EXCEPT FOR DEVELOPING
CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY THAT WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED. ALSO...SHOULD
CONVECTION INITIATE AND FORM INTO A LINE SEGMENT OVER ERN
IA...THERE MAY BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SEVERE CONVECTION AS IT
MOVES INTO WI. OVERALL WIND SHEAR IS QUITE FAVORABLE TODAY...BUT
FORCING IS WEAK IN THE INSTABILITY AREA. WILL MONITOR THIS
EVENING.
THE ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT SHOULD LIFT NORTH WEDNESDAY DURING THE
MORNING AS THE FORCING DOES AS WELL. THINKING A VERY SIMILAR DAY
TO TODAY WITH SWRN WI POSSIBLY NEAR 80F AGAIN AND BUILDING CAPE.
CONSENSUS OF THE FORECAST GUIDANCE HAS THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT MOVING IN THURSDAY AS THE CLOSED LOW SHIFTS
NORTHEAST. WOULD THINK MOST AREAS WILL SEE ABOUT 0.25 INCHES
THURSDAY FROM THIS FRONT. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR INSTABILITY
GROWING AHEAD OF THE FRONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE
THREATS. BAND FREEZES IN ERN WI AS THE UPPER LOW HALTS ITS
NORTHEAST PROGRESSION.
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
340 PM CDT TUE MAR 20 2012
CLOSED LOW WILL SHIFT IN AND AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY
MID-DAY...THEN HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDING KICKS IN....AGAIN.
MODEL CONSENSUS ON THE NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVING NE OF THE GREAT
LAKES IS BETTER THAN YESTERDAY WITH ABOUT A 2C SPREAD AT 850MB
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THUS...CONFIDENCE IS GROWING ON THOSE FORECASTS
IN THE 60-65F RANGE. GFS SUITE STILL MORE AGGRESSIVE ON WARMING FOR
MONDAY AND HAVE CHOSEN TO BE CONSERVATIVE THERE...WITH COOLER
20.12Z ECMWF. HAVE INTRODUCED PRECIPITATION CHANCES MONDAY AGAIN
AS THE RETURN FLOW IN THE DAKOTAS SHIFTS EAST TOWARD THE
AREA...LIKE IN THE MONTH OF MAY. THUS...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER
THE AREA WILL RETREAT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT BUT BE WORKED ON
SOMEWHAT FOR RAIN CHANCES. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY MAY NEED TO BE
INCREASED SHOULD COLD FRONTAL TIMING VIA STRONG SWRN U.S. TROUGH
LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD CHANGE.
&&
.AVIATION...THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY
1259 PM CDT TUE MAR 20 2012
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES LATE
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING AND INTERACT WITH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STRETCH FROM
SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA THROUGH FAR NORTHWEST WISCONSIN THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. KRST WILL SEE SHOWERS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...THEN
PERSISTING OVERNIGHT. PLAN ON MVFR CONDITIONS AT KRST AS THE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MOVE THROUGH. LOOK FOR VISIBILITIES TO FALL
INTO THE 4 TO 5SM RANGE AS THE HEAVIER SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH.
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO AROUND 2 KFT...AND REMAIN IN THE
MVFR CATEGORY THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY TO THE WEST OF KLSE...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED WITH CLOUD BASES IN THE 3500 TO 5000 FT RANGE. THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA
BY MID WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING. PLAN ON SOUTH
WINDS INCREASING INTO THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE WEDNESDAY MORNING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
340 PM CDT TUE MAR 20 2012
WHILE FUELS ARE STILL DRY AND READY TO BURN...WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL HOLD IN A MINIMAL THREAT REGIME AS THE WEAK CONTINUES.
WEDNESDAY WILL PROVIDE MIN RH VALUES NEAR 50 PERCENT OVER CENTRAL
WI WHICH IS NOT OVERLY FAVORABLE FOR SPREADING FIRE. HOWEVER...A
WILDFIRE WAS REPORTED IN GREEN LAKE COUNTY TODAY IN CENTRAL
WI...AND THIS AREA IS THE MOST FAVORABLE FOR FIRE ACTIVITY
WEDNESDAY. A WETTING RAIN IS EXPECTED THURSDAY TO HELP REDUCE THE
FUEL VOLATILITY.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
344 PM CDT TUE MAR 20 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BAUMGARDT
LONG TERM...BAUMGARDT
AVIATION.....WETENKAMP
FIRE WEATHER...BAUMGARDT