Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 03/18/12

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TAUNTON MA

422 PM EDT FRI MAR 16 2012

.SYNOPSIS...

LOW PRESSURE EXITS NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE THIS WEEKEND. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST...WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH MUCH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WITH WET WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WITH A STRONGER DISTURBANCE
EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...

SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ARE MOVING THROUGH
EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AND WILL EXIT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS
STILL SOME RESIDUAL INSTABILITY LEFT BEHIND AND HRRR INDICATING
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP LATE AFTERNOON IN THE
INTERIOR AS THE SHORTWAVE SWINGS THROUGH...OTHERWISE TREND WILL BE
FOR DECREASING POPS INTO THIS EVENING. SHORTWAVE MOVES OFFSHORE
TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE REGION. GOOD MID
LEVEL DRYING TONIGHT MAY LEAD TO PARTIAL CLEARING...BUT THERE IS
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO SUPPORT AREAS OF STRATUS AND PATCHY
FOG. MIN TEMPS ARE TRICKY DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE EXTENT OF
CLOUD COVER. WE USED A BLEND OF THE BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE TO
DERIVE MIN TEMPS.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

SATURDAY...
PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BURN OFF DURING THE
MORNING...OTHERWISE MOSUNNY SKIES EXPECTED AS HIGH PRES BUILDS
OVER SNE. LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP COOLEST TEMPS ACROSS E
COASTAL MA AND CAPE/ISLANDS WHICH WILL BE MOST IMPACTED BY MARINE
LAYER. MAXES SHOULD RANGE FROM NEAR 50 E COASTAL MA TO LOWER/MID
60S CT VALLEY.

SATURDAY NIGHT...
MOCLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WITH HIGH PRES IN CONTROL...BUT
CANT RULE OUT SOME LATE NIGHT RADIATION FOG DEVELOPING IN THE
INTERIOR. DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP
BACK THROUGH THE 30S.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...
* A MILD PERIOD /ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS/ WITH MAINLY SOUTHERLY FLOW
* WEAK DISTURBANCE CENTERED AROUND MONDAY WITH SHOWERY WEATHER PSBL
* MAIN SYSTEM LIFTS THRU THE RGN TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK

OVERVIEW...
A CHALLENGING FCST TO SAY THE LEAST WITH LOW CONFIDENCE THROUGHOUT.
MUCH OF THE LONG-TERM IS FOCUSED ON A WEAK DISTURBANCE OUT OF THE
CENTRAL PACIFIC /BECOMING BETTER SAMPLED BY UPR AIR OBS/ PROGRESSING
NEWD THRU THE LONGWAVE FLOW REGIME OVER THE MID-MS VLY OVER THE
WEEKEND...INTO THE NERN CONUS BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. A
COMPLICATED PATTERN EVOLVES AS THE DISTURBANCE IS TIED UP BETWEEN
AN UPR LVL LOW IN PROXIMITY TO BERMUDA AND AMPLIFIED RIDGING AHEAD
OF A DEEPENING SYS THRU THE CENTRAL CONUS. WHILE THE 16/12Z FCST
PACKAGE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PRESENCE OF THE WEAK
DISTURBANCE...ITS EVOLUTION AND POTENTIAL WOBBLE AROUND THE MID-
ATLANTIC THROWS A GIANT WRENCH IN CERTAIN OUTCOMES FOR DAY 3-6
FCST. WITH THIS WEAK SYS...THERE ARE SEVERAL QUESTIONS...SUCH AS
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AND LIFT. ATTENDANT CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL
ULTIMATELY IMPACT THE LOW-LVL PROFILE AND SFC TEMPS KEEPING THINGS
COOLER /MAINLY AROUND THE MONDAY/. THE SYS ITSELF MAY KEEP THE
BETTER THERMAL AXIS N AND W OF THE FCST RGN. BUT AT THE SAME TOKEN
THE WAA AHEAD OF THE STRONG SYS THRU THE CENTRAL CONUS ACTING TO
INCREASE MID-LVL RIDGING ALONG AND AHEAD MAY IN TURN RESULT IN A
GREATER INFLUENCE OF DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE...ALBEIT BRIEFLY AS
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OF THE WARM/MOIST CONVEYOR BELT AHEAD OF THE
SYS WILL SHIFT EWD AS THE SYS EJECTS THRU THE RGN BY THE END OF
THE WEEK. CONCISE THOUGHTS ARE DISCUSSED BELOW.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...
SFC HIGH PRES S AND E OF THE FCST AREA SHOULD MAINTAIN A HOLD ON THE
AREAS WX KEEPING IT DRY AND MILD. DO NOT BELIEVE SW FLOW WILL BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO RESTRICT SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE E SHORE /ALTHO THIS
IS POORLY REFLECTED IN THE FCST GRIDS/. MOSTLY CLEAR INITIALLY...
WITH INCREASING CLOUDS LATE. HIGHS AROUND THE UPR 60S WITH A MILD
NGT AROUND THE MID 40S.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...
WEAK DISTURBANCE WOBBLES THRU THE RGN. WILL GO WITH SLGT CHC POPS
WITH NO THUNDER MAINLY FOR S NEW ENGLAND WHERE BEST LIFT AND
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY SHOULD RESIDE. KEPT SFC TEMPS LOW /LOW-MID 60S
FOR HIGHS/ WITH MODEST DWPTS AROUND 50 DEGREES. WILL NEED TO WATCH
MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS N AND E WITH A POTENTIAL SFC LOW THRU SRN NEW
ENGLAND USHERING NELY FLOW ALONG ERN SHORES.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...
WEAK DISTURBANCE WOBBLES S WHILE SEEMINGLY OVERCOME AND DEAMPLIFIED
WITH ENHANCED BROAD RIDGING OVER THE ERN CONUS. WILL KEEP FCST DRY
YET WITH REMNANT LOW-LVL MOISTURE WILL HINT AT SOME DIURNAL CU WITH
HIGHS AROUND THE LOW 70S /COOLER ALONG THE SHORE/. SW FLOW AND
RENEWED WAA ALOFT. MILD NGT WITH LOWS AROUND 50 DEGREES.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
WEAK DISTURBANCE BEGINS TO LIFT BACK N. WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS INTO THE LATE PD. WARMER AIR BUILDING ALOFT WITH SW FLOW.
HIGHS AROUND THE LOW-MID 70S WITH MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS...ANOTHER
MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS DOWN TO THE LOW 50S.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...
SW FLOW AMPLIFIES AHEAD OF THE SYS ACTING TO INCREASE THE ISENTROPIC
FLOW OF WARM/MOIST AIR FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. ANTICIPATE
INCREASING DIURNAL CU THRU THE RGN WITH THE APPROACHING SYS OUT OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SOME MAJOR UNDERLYING QUESTIONS AS TO THE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE SYS COUPLED WITH THE FACT WHETHER IT WILL
EVOLVE AS A BROADER TROF...OR A SPLIT FLOW REGIME WITH CLOSED H5 LOW
THRU THE AREA. WILL ONLY SPECULATE FOR NOW THAT COME FRI INTO THE
WEEKEND THAT THE SYS SHOULD MIGRATE THRU THE RGN WITH THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND PSBL THUNDERSTORMS.

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT
MODERATE...30 PERCENT TO 60 PERCENT
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT

THROUGH 00Z...WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AND LOCAL MVFR VSBYS IN BRIEF
RAIN SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION 18-21Z. IFR CIGS MAY
DEVELOP ALONG THE S COAST.

TONIGHT...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WE EXPECT AREAS OF STRATUS
AND FOG...BUT UNSURE OF EXTENT AND DURATION OF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS. TAFS HAVE MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS WITH AREAS OF IFR
CAPE/ISLANDS.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. PATCHY MVFR/IFR EARLY...OTHERWISE
VFR.

SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MOSTLY VFR...BUT PATCHY
LATE NIGHT MVFR/IFR STRATUS/FOG POSSIBLE IN THE INTERIOR.

KBOS TERMINAL...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. EXPECT MAINLY
MVFR CIGS THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE CONDITIONS IMPROVE
TO VFR DURING TONIGHT. VFR SAT WITH SEABREEZES DEVELOPING BY
MIDDAY.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...
MODERATE CONFIDENCE VFR. SW FLOW WITH THE ANTICIPATION OF MOSTLY
CLEAR CONDITIONS.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...
MODERATE CONFIDENCE MVFR-VFR. WEAK DISTURBANCE THRU THE RGN WITH LGT
AND VRB FLOW. MAY SEE NELY FLOW ALONG THE E SHORE USHERING LOW CIGS
AND PSBL FOG IMPACTS OFF THE GULF OF ME. -SHRA EXPECTED FOR
TERMINALS LOCATED ACROSS W AND S FCST AREA.

TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY...
MODERATE CONFIDENCE VFR. ENHANCING SW FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
SYS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. LIKELY TO BE DEALING WITH 20-25 KT SWLY
GUSTS. INCREASING CLOUDS THRU THE PD. WILL NEED TO WATCH THE ONSHORE
FLOW FOR THE S TERMINALS AND WHETHER THERE MAY BE CIG AND VSBY
IMPACTS AS COOLER AIR COMES ASHORE OFF THE WATERS.

.MARINE...

WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THROUGH SAT NIGHT AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. SEAS OVER THE EASTERN WATERS ARE STILL
HOVERING CLOSE TO 5 FT BUT WILL BE SUBSIDING. THE ONLY CONCERN
IS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY DENSE FOG TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SUNDAY INTO THURSDAY...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADV THRESHOLDS.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TOWARDS THE LATER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

.CLIMATE...

RECORD HIGHS FOR THE FOUR MAJOR CLIMATE SITES ACROSS THE REGION
FOR NEXT WEEK...

SUN (18) / MON (19) / TUE (20) / WED (21)

TEMP (YEAR)
BOSTON 70 (2011)/ 72 (1903)/ 79 (1945)/ 83 (1921)
WINDSOR LOCKS 71 (2011)/ 73 (2010)/ 81 (1945)/ 82 (1921)
PROVIDENCE 73 (2011)/ 69 (2010)/ 83 (1945)/ 84 (1921)
WORCESTER 65 (1999)/ 71 (1894)/ 77 (1945)/ 71 (1921)

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

SYNOPSIS...KJC/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...KJC/SIPPRELL
MARINE...KJC/SIPPRELL
CLIMATE...WFO BOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TAUNTON MA

322 PM EDT FRI MAR 16 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE EXITS NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE THIS WEEKEND. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST...WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH MUCH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ARE MOVING THROUGH
EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AND WILL EXIT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS
STILL SOME RESIDUAL INSTABILITY LEFT BEHIND AND HRRR INDICATING
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP LATE AFTERNOON IN THE
INTERIOR AS THE SHORTWAVE SWINGS THROUGH...OTHERWISE TREND WILL BE
FOR DECREASING POPS INTO THIS EVENING. SHORTWAVE MOVES OFFSHORE
TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE REGION. GOOD MID
LEVEL DRYING TONIGHT MAY LEAD TO PARTIAL CLEARING...BUT THERE IS
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO SUPPORT AREAS OF STRATUS AND PATCHY
FOG. MIN TEMPS ARE TRICKY DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE EXTENT OF
CLOUD COVER. WE USED A BLEND OF THE BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE TO
DERIVE MIN TEMPS.

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY...
PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BURN OFF DURING THE
MORNING...OTHERWISE MOSUNNY SKIES EXPECTED AS HIGH PRES BUILDS
OVER SNE. LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP COOLEST TEMPS ACROSS E
COASTAL MA AND CAPE/ISLANDS WHICH WILL BE MOST IMPACTED BY MARINE
LAYER. MAXES SHOULD RANGE FROM NEAR 50 E COASTAL MA TO LOWER/MID
60S CT VALLEY.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW VERY GOOD CONTINUITY AND
CONSISTENCY WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF FULL LATITUDE LONG WAVE TROUGH
ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. WITH RESPONDING LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME. SURFACE FEATURES ACROSS THE EAST LOOK GOOD AS WELL
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEN SOME CHANGES AROUND MONDAY AS MODELS
TRY TO BRING A BACKDOOR FRONT DOWN THE COAST. HOWEVER...HIGH PRES
POSITIONS OFF THE MID ATLC COAST...WHICH SHOULD HOLD OFF THIS FRONT
ACROSS MAINE AND EASTERN CANADA. LOOKS LIKE MORE DRY WEATHER WITH A
MODERATING TREND MOVING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH NEAR
RECORD TEMPS POSSIBLE. BY LATE NEXT WEEK...COLD FRONT MAY WORK DOWN
OUT OF EASTERN CANADA...BUT TIMING IS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION THIS FAR
OUT.

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...LARGE HIGH PRES WILL BUILD OUT OF QUEBEC AS
LOW PRES MOVES OFFSHORE. THIS WILL KEEP EASTERN AREAS CHILLY WITH
NE-E FLOW WITH LEFTOVER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND GENERALLY LIGHT
WINDS. WILL SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN
AREAS SAT NIGHT UNTIL AROUND MID MORNING SUNDAY WHICH MAY BECOME
LOCALLY DENSE AT TIMES. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS EXCEPT FOR
PATCHY LOW CLOUDS WHERE FOG DEVELOPS. TEMPS WILL FALL BACK TO THE
30S...THEN WILL REBOUND DURING SUNDAY AFTER THE FOG BURNS OFF.
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE 50S ALONG THE S COAST TO AROUND 60
ALONG THE E COAST WITH ONSHORE FLOW...RANGING TO THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S INLAND. RECORD HIGHS WILL INLAND ARE POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...HIGH PRES WILL BUILD OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COAST DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. WITH LIGHT FLOW IN
PLACE...ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE CAPE COD COAST AS WELL AS CT VALLEY MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
THROUGH MID MORNING MONDAY. LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME S-SW. EXPECT
ANOTHER MILD DAY INLAND...BUT WILL REMAIN COOLER ALONG THE COAST.
BACKDOOR FRONT TRIES TO WORK DOWN THE COAST OUT OF MAINE AND
SOUTHERN QUEBEC...BUT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL REMAIN WELL N OF THE REGION
AS THE HIGH ORIENTS TO THE S HOLDING THE FRONT AT BAY. EXPECT HIGHS
ON MONDAY RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S ALONG THE COAST
RANGING TO THE LOWER 70S INLAND.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...LOOKS LIKE THIS WILL BE THE MILDEST PART
OF THE FORECAST AS HIGH PRES CENTERS OFF THE MID ATLC COAST WHILE
UPPER RIDGE TAKES UP RESIDENCE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S.
THIS IS MORE OF A SUMMER TYPE PATTERN IN PLACE RATHER THAN EARLY
SPRING...WITH WARM AIR WORKING INTO THE REGION ON W-SW WINDS. NOTING
A PROLONGED DRY PERIOD...WITH ONLY LIGHT RAINFALL OVER THE LAST
COUPLE OF WEEKS...SO WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL
ESPECIALLY LATER WED AND THU AS W WINDS PICK UP. EXPECT HIGHS
REACHING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S EACH DAY...MILDEST FORECAST FOR
THURSDAY...THOUGH WILL REMAIN COOLER ALONG THE SOUTH COAST WITH
ONSHORE WINDS AND SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING ALONG THE EAST COASTAL
AREAS.

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT
MODERATE...30 PERCENT TO 60 PERCENT
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT

THROUGH 00Z...WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AND LOCAL MVFR VSBYS IN BRIEF
RAIN SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION 18-21Z. IFR CIGS MAY
DEVELOP ALONG THE S COAST.

TONIGHT...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WE EXPECT AREAS OF STRATUS
AND FOG...BUT UNSURE OF EXTENT AND DURATION OF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS. TAFS HAVE MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS WITH AREAS OF IFR
CAPE/ISLANDS.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. PATCHY MVFR/IFR EARLY...OTHERWISE
VFR.

SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MOSTLY VFR...BUT PATCHY
LATE NIGHT MVFR/IFR STRATUS/FOG POSSIBLE IN THE INTERIOR.

KBOS TERMINAL...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. EXPECT MAINLY
MVFR CIGS THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE CONDITIONS IMPROVE
TO VFR DURING TONIGHT. VFR SAT WITH SEABREEZES DEVELOPING BY
MIDDAY.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. PATCHY LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING FOG ACROSS CT VALLEY AND S COASTAL MA/RI EACH DAY WITH
MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS.

TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. PATCHY LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING FOG ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS WITH MVFR-IFR
CIGS/VSBYS.

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THROUGH SAT NIGHT AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. SEAS OVER THE EASTERN WATERS ARE STILL
HOVERING CLOSE TO 5 FT BUT WILL BE SUBSIDING. THE ONLY CONCERN
IS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY DENSE FOG TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES ACROSS THE WATERS.

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR THE FOUR MAJOR CLIMATE SITES ACROSS THE REGION
FOR NEXT WEEK...

SUN (18) / MON (19) / TUE (20) / WED (21)

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...KJC/EVT
MARINE...KJC/EVT
CLIMATE...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ALBANY NY

137 PM EDT FRI MAR 16 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS. TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND
WILL BE UNSEASONABLY MILD WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 115 PM EDT...THE LATEST KENX AND MOSAIC RADAR TRENDS HAVE
THE BAND OF SHOWERS WITH THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MAINLY EAST OF A
KDDH-KPSF-KPOU AXIS. THE RUC HAS THE SFC WAVE OVER NRN NEW
ENGLAND AND SE QUEBEC. THE COLD FRONT REMAINS UPSTREAM OVER
W-CNTRL NY AND PA. THE RUC40 ALSO SHOWS THE H500 UPPER TROUGH
AXIS JUST DOWNSTREAM OF THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION. WE CONTINUED
AND ISOLD-SCT THREAT OF A SHOWER UNTIL THE UPPER TROUGH AND COLD
FRONT MOVE EAST OF THE REGION IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. THE POP TRENDS WERE REDONE BASED ON THE RADAR TRENDS.

THUNDER WAS ALSO REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST...AS THE AIR MASS IS
TOO STABLE FROM THE RAIN COOLED AIR...AND THERE HAS BEEN A PAUCITY
OF CG LTG STRIKES. THE NAM/RUC GUIDANCE SHOWS LESS ELEVATED
INSTABILITY OVER THE REGION THIS CYCLE TOO.

FINALLY..THERE ARE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER OVER N-CNTRL
PA...AND CNTRL NY. THIS PARTIAL CLEARING MAY GET INTO THE FCST
AREA AFTER 4 PM. HOWEVER...THE RAIN COOLED AIR HAS KEPT TEMPS DOWN
TODAY. WE LOWERED MAX TEMPS EVEN FURTHER WITH 50-55F READINGS IN
THE VALLEYS...ERN CATSKILLS...AND LITCHFIELD HILLS...AND MID AND
U40S OVER THE MTNS...LAKE GEORGE REGION...AND EAST OF THE SRN
GREENS MTNS.

HOURLY T/TD/RH/APPARENT TEMPS TRENDS WERE ALSO DONE BASED ON THE OBSERVATIONS.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BIG BUBBLE NO TROUBLE FOR THE SHORT TERM AS THE COMBINATION OF
INCREASING SURFACE PRESSURES AND RISING HEIGHTS SHOULD RESULT IN
AMPLE AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE. THERE COULD BE SOME FOG FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING DUE TO THE PREVIOUS RAINFALL.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD CONTINUE
ABOVE NORMAL WITH VALLEY TEMPS MAINLY 60S ON SATURDAY AND INTO THE
LOWER 70S ON SUNDAY GIVEN IDEAL MIXING CONDITIONS.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECT MAINLY DRY AND VERY MILD CONDITIONS DURING THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. THERE STILL MAY BE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DURING
THE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME...HOWEVER IT IS BECOMING
LESS CERTAIN IF THIS WILL EVEN IMPACT THE FA. THEREFORE WILL GO
WITH A DRY FORECAST AT THIS TIME AS A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE FA THROUGH MID WEEK. TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE VERY MILD GENERALLY AVERAGING AS MUCH AS 25 TO 30
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECT HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S TO
UPPER 70S WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50.

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/..
STEADY RAINFALL HAS MOVED EAST OF THE REGION AND AWAY FROM THE
HUDSON VALLEY TAF SITES. WHILE A STRAY RAIN SHOWER/SPRINKLE CANNOT
BE TOTALLY RULED DUE TO THE UPPER TROUGH ALOFT...IT SHOULD BE RAIN
FREE THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...PLENTY OF LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP LOW STRATUS AROUND FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS...ESP AT KALB/KPOU. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS SUGGESTS THAT CIGS
SHOULD FINALLY RISE TO MVFR LEVELS BY THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO MOVE IN FOR THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW CLOUDS TO SCT OUT. HOWEVER...WITH THE
WET GROUND FOR THE RECENT RAINFALL...A DEVELOPING STRONG INVERSION
WILL PROMOTE RADIATIONAL FOG IN DEVELOPING...ESP FOR KGFL. IFR
CONDITIONS LOOK TO DEVELOP AT ALL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH
IT MAY BE TAKE UNTIL THE LATE NIGHT HOURS FOR THE IFR TO SET IN AT
KALB. ONE FACTOR MAY BE JUST HOW QUICKLY IT CLEAR THIS EVENING. IF
THE CURRENT STRATUS/STRATOCU TAKES LONGER TO CLEAR OUT...IT MAY
DELAY THE RADIATIONAL FOG FROM DEVELOPING BY A FEW HOURS...SO THE
TIMING OF FOG FOR TONIGHT IS ONLY A LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.

AFTER SUNRISE ON SATURDAY...FOG WILL DISSIPATE BY MID
MORNING...WITH CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING TO ALL
TERMINALS.

WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY 10 KTS
OR LESS. WINDS WILL GO CALM OR VERY LIGHT /3 KTS OR LESS/ AT ALL
SITES OVERNIGHT. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY FOR
SATURDAY...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT AT ALL SITES.

OUTLOOK...
SAT-SUN NT...VFR. NO SIG WX.
MON-MON NT...VFR/MVFR. SLGT CHC -SHRA/-TSRA.
TUE-WED...VFR. NO SIG WX.

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH SHOWERS AND SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL KEEP HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL VARY WITH AMOUNTS GENERALLY BETWEEN ONE QUARTER TO
ONE HALF INCH. DRIER WEATHER RETURNS LATE TODAY WHICH WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE COULD BE SOME FOG FRIDAY NIGHT AS
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES CLIMB TOWARD 100 PERCENT.

WEEKEND MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DO DROP BELOW 50
PERCENT...HOWEVER...WINDS REMAIN LIGHT.

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGY PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

RAINFALL EXPECTED OVER THE ENTIRE HSA IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
QUARTER INCH TO HALF INCH RANGE...WITH THE LOWER AMOUNTS IN THE SRN
REACHES OF THE HSA...AND THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OVER THE WRN MOHAWK
VALLEY...AND THE SRN DACKS. SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION. THE NORTHEAST RIVER FORECAST CENTER
QPF WAS UTILIZED IN THE FIRST 48 HOURS OF THE FORECAST.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AND INTO MOST OF NEXT
WEEK. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT REMAIN IN THE SRN
DACKS...AND SRN GREENS BASED ON THE LATEST DATA FROM THE NOHRSC.
THE WARM AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FROM THE WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK WILL PRODUCE A GRADUAL SNOW MELT WITH MAX TEMPS WELL
ABOVE NORMAL...BUT MINS IN THE 30S TO L40S.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM/WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...WASULA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ALBANY NY

129 PM EDT FRI MAR 16 2012

HOURLY T/TD/RH/APPARENT TEMPS TRENDS WERE ALSO DONE BASED ON THE OBSERVATIONS.

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FOR THIS MORNING EXPECT MAINLY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AT THE TAF
SITES THROUGH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES MOVES INTO NEW YORK STATE EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT SHOWERS TO REACH THE TAF
SITES BTWN 13Z AND 16Z...BEGINNING FIRST AT KGFL AND LAST AT KPOU
AS THE PCPN IS MOVING MORE QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST THAN TO THE
EAST. AT THIS TIME WILL LEAVE THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF TAFS AS THE
LIGHTNING TO THE WEST HAS DIMINISHED GREATLY AND ML MUCAPES
CONTINUE TO INDICATE LESS INSTABILITY ACROSS THE HUDSON VALLEY.
ONCE THE SHOWERS END ARND MID AFTERNOON EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
AT ALL SITES BY 20Z AND THEN FOG DEVELOPING AT THE TAF SITES
LATER THIS EVENING WITH IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS...EXCEPT LIKELY
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AT KGFL.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SOUTHEAST OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH
THIS MORNING...EXCEPT AT KALB WHERE CHANNELING OF SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL RESULT IN SOUTH WINDS AT 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SW-W AT 4-8 KTS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH WINDS THIS EVENING EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

OUTLOOK...
SAT-SUN NT...VFR. NO SIG WX.
MON-MON NT...VFR/MVFR. SLGT CHC -SHRA/-TSRA.
TUE...VFR. NO SIG WX.

WEEKEND MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DO DROP BELOW 50
PERCENT...HOWEVER...WINDS REMAIN LIGHT.

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGY PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM/WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...WASULA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NEW YORK NY

937 AM EDT FRI MAR 16 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE TRI STATE AREA TODAY AND PASSES
THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OFF THE EAST COAST
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON
MONDAY...OTHERWISE DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MINOR UPDATES TO THE GRIDS THIS MORNING. HAVE TRIED TO TIME
SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND CT EARLY...THEN ADDITIONAL
BATCH THAT WAS IN CENTRAL/EASTERN PA AT 11Z. 08Z HRRR SHOWS THEM
WEAKENING AS THEY PROGRESS EAST WHICH MAY OCCUR WITH RELATIVELY
DRY AIR IN THE 950-800MB LAYER...BUT WITH A WEAK MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT IN VCNTY...CHC POPS CONTINUE
ALTHOUGH RAINFALL WILL BE PRIMARILY LIGHT OR IN THE FORM OF
DRIZZLE.

OTHERWISE...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE MID ATLANTIC AND
BACK NORTHWARD THROUGH PA TOWARD A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. ANOTHER WEAK LOW ALONG THE BOUNDARY...SITUATED OFF
THE DELMARVA WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST...HELPING MAINTAIN ON ONSHORE
FLOW OVER THE CWA. THIS...COUPLED WITH A LACK OF A SIGNIFICANT LOW
LEVEL JET AND ONLY WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST OUT OF THE GREAT
LAKES SHOULD PREVENT ANY WARM FRONT PASSAGE FROM OCCURRING
TODAY...KEEPING US IN A MARITIME POLAR AIRMASS THROUGH THE DAY.

A STRONGER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE THEN APPROACHES IN THE
AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL HELP A COLD FRONT ADVANCE EAST TOWARDS
US...AND PERHAPS ALSO WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH PASSING THROUGH BY
LATE AFTERNOON. THETA-E RIDGE AND PWATS WILL INCREASE...AND THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A WEAK UPPER JET STREAK SHIFTS OUR WAY.
LOW VALUES OF MUCAPE AND SHOWALTER INDICES APPROACHING ZERO POINT
TO A LITTLE ELEVATED CONVECTION POSSIBLY REACHING PERHAPS AS FAR
EAST AS THE CITY. SHOWERS THAT OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON ARE
THEREFORE EXPECTED TO HAVE HEAVIER RAINFALL INTENSITIES VS. THE
MORNING HOURS. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP ISOLATED THUNDER MAINLY WEST
OF THE HUDSON. IN GENERAL...HIGH CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY POPS FOR THE
CWA. BLEND OF MAV/NAM MOS LOOKED GOOD FOR THE MOST PART FOR HIGHS.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH DURING THE EVENING...BUT MODELS
SHOWING PLENTY OF DRYING ALOFT BY THE TIME IT MAKES IT THROUGH...SO
LIKELY A DRY PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...AND RAIN CHANCES WILL BE MAINLY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE EXITING PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE EARLY
IN THE EVENING.

MODELS SHOWING SOME MOISTURE GETTING TRAPPED BELOW A STRENGTHENING
LOW LEVEL INVERSION...THEN SCOURING OUT SOMEWHAT IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAVE THEREFORE GONE WITH A MOSTLY CLOUDY FORECAST FOR THE AT LEAST
THE FIRST HALF OF THE MORNING MORNING...THEN TURNING PARTLY SUNNY.
AND WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW...LEANED MORE TOWARDS THE COOLER NAM MOS
FOR HIGHS ON SATURDAY. THESE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FULL LATITUDE UPPER TROUGH ENCOMPASSING WESTERN NOAM AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY MOVING INLAND AND IS FORECASTED TO CUTOFF
OVER THE SOUTHWEST ON TUE. MEANWHILE A HIGHLY ANOMALOUS RIDGE WILL
DOMINATE THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
CONTINUATION OF A DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA.

H5 HEIGHTS MAY COME CLOSE TO 580DM OVER THE NORTHEAST BY WED. DUE TO
LIMITED MARCH SUN ANGLE THIS WOULD TRANSLATE INTO 70S ACROSS
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA. HAVE GONE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
GUIDANCE HERE...BUT HIGH TEMPS CLOSER TO THE COAST ARE TRICKIER WITH
A SLY FLOW EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. THE OTHER CAVEAT IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR STRATUS AT NIGHT. WE ALREADY WILL HAVE A WELL ESTABLISHED SLY
FLOW IN PLACE FROM SUN NIGHT ON AND DEWPOINTS OVER THE WATER ARE
FORECASTED TO BE ABOVE SFC WATER TEMPS SO THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRATUS INCREASES EACH NIGHT. LOW CLOUDS ARE TRICKY AND AREAL
EXTENT IS DIFFICULT TO PREDICT SO DO NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO
PUT THEM IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME...BUT FOG/STRATUS SEASON IS
HERE. IF THESE CLOUDS DO OCCUR...HIGH TEMPS BECOME DIFFICULT DUE
TO TIMING OF STRATUS BURNING OFF. SCENARIO DEPICTS THAT OF STRATUS
REMAINING OFFSHORE DURING THE DAY AND PUSHING BACK IN DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WITH COOLING. SOME PLACES LIKE EASTERN LI/CT
MAY NOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE SOME DAYS BEFORE THE
CLOUDS ROLL BACK IN.

SEA BREEZES WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE COAST MUCH OF THE WEEK...BUT
AGAIN WILL DEPEND ON HEATING. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF LATER
GUIDANCE COMES IN WITH UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 ACROSS SOME INTERIOR
LOCATIONS.

AS FOR PRECIP...OTHER THAN AN UPPER DISTURBANCE APPROACHING WESTERN
ZONES LATE SUN NIGHT/MON IT WILL REMAIN DRY. EC BRINGS THE
SHORTWAVE DIRECTLY OVER THE LOCAL AREA AND IS MORE ROBUST WITH
PRECIP AMOUNTS...HOWEVER HAVE CHOSEN TO STICK CLOSER TO THE NAM/GFS
WHICH TRACKS THE MORE ROBUST SHORTWAVE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST WITH A WEAKER VORT APPROACHING US FROM THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION WITH MUCH LIGHTER QPF.

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS OUT OF THE REGION AS A LOW PRESSURE AREA
DRAGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH LATE TODAY. IFR CONDITIONS PERSIST
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH VFR EXPECTED BY TONIGHT.

MAIN CONCERN THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON ARE IFR CIGS WITH
OCCASIONAL LIFR. DECENT CONFIDENCE LIFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
15Z...WITH LOW CONFIDENCE OF CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON SO HAVE
ONLY AS TEMPO THROUGH 15Z. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES LATER
TODAY...MIXING INCREASES AND WE SHOULD SEE THE CIGS INCREASE TO
VFR BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS ALL AREAS.

EAST SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY
18Z...AND PERSIST THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. LIGHT DRIZZLE IMPACTS
THE SITES THIS MORNING...WITH SCT ACTIVITY MOVING IN THIS
AFTERNOON. LOW CONFIDENCE IN LOCATION THOUGH HAS KEPT FROM
MENTIONING IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN
END TIME OF IFR/LIFR AND FOR POSSIBLE PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN
END TIME OF IFR/LIFR AND FOR POSSIBLE PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN
END TIME OF IFR/LIFR AND FOR POSSIBLE PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN
END TIME OF IFR/LIFR AND FOR POSSIBLE PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN
END TIME OF IFR/LIFR AND FOR POSSIBLE PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN
END TIME OF IFR AND FOR POSSIBLE PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.SATURDAY...POSSIBLE IFR/NEAR IFR CONDITIONS EARLY...THEN VFR.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...VFR.
MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY..3000 FT OR LOWER CEILINGS AND 5SM OR LOWER
VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE.

.MARINE...
EASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
TODAY...AND BECOME LIGHTER AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. WINDS AND SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE JUST BELOW SCA LEVELS ON THE OCEAN WATERS EARLY THIS
MORNING...THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDE. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THIS
EVENING...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTH...THEN NORTHEAST BY LATE
TONIGHT. WINDS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. A NORTHEAST TO EAST
FLOW THEN DEVELOPS ON SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM NEW
ENGLAND. WITH FLOW UNDER 15 KT...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE WATERS THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE EAST COAST.

.HYDROLOGY...
ONLY UP TO AROUND A TENTH OR TWO OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL EXPECTED
TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS MAY CREATE ISOLATED HIGHER
TOTALS. NO ADVERSE HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS EXPECTED. NO SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THE REST OF THE WEEKEND THROUGH AT LEAST
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/24
NEAR TERM...JC/24
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...SEARS
MARINE...JC/24
HYDROLOGY...JC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NEW YORK NY

748 AM EDT FRI MAR 16 2012

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY...AS AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS SOUTH...THEN SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND. A
WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY EVENING.

PRIMARILY IFR CEILINGS...WITH OCCASIONAL CEILINGS LIFTING TO 1000-3000FT
THROUGH MID MORNING...EXCEPT PRIMARILY CEILINGS 1000-2000 FT
KBDR/KISP/KGON. CEILINGS LIKELY LIFT TO 1000-3000 FT THROUGHOUT
FROM BY MID MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS PROBABLE STARTING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR 4-6SM
VISIBILITIES OVERNIGHT WITH IFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE...WITH THE
BEST CHANCE AT KJFK/KHPN/KISP/KBDR/KSWF.

SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY...WITH BEST CHANCE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN THERE OCCURRENCE AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION TO
REFLECT IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. FOR NOW APPEARS BEST POTENTIAL FOR
ANY THUNDER WILL BE TO THE N AND W OF THE REGION...WITH POTENTIAL
OVER THE REGION VERY LOW...HOWEVER ELEVATED CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO E-ESE WINDS 5-10KT THIS MORNING...BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGHOUT BY EARLY AFTERNOON...AND REMAINING
SO WELL THROUGH TONIGHT.

NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN
END TIME OF IFR AND SOME POTENTIAL FOR VARIABILITY IN CONDITIONS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN
END TIME OF IFR AND SOME POTENTIAL FOR VARIABILITY IN CONDITIONS.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN
END TIME OF IFR AND SOME POTENTIAL FOR VARIABILITY IN CONDITIONS.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN
END TIME OF IFR AND SOME POTENTIAL FOR VARIABILITY IN CONDITIONS.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN
END TIME OF IFR AND SOME POTENTIAL FOR VARIABILITY IN CONDITIONS.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE DUE TO SOME POTENTIAL
FOR VARIABILITY IN CONDITIONS.

TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE WATERS THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE EAST COAST.

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/24
NEAR TERM...JC/24
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...MALOIT
MARINE...JC/24
HYDROLOGY...JC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSONVILLE FL

952 PM EDT SAT MAR 17 2012

...CONVECTION WINDING DOWN THIS EVENING...
...AREAS OF FOG LATER TONIGHT...

.SYNOPSIS...THE RUC INDICATED A MEAN LAYER 1000-500 MB RIDGE OVER
THE FL PANHANDLE THIS EVENING WITH A LIGHT SSE STEERING FLOW OVER
OUR GA ZONES...AND SSW OVER OUR FL ZONES. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED
A "DIRTY" UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFYING OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF
OF MEXICO..."DIRTY" REFERRING TO A LOT OF HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING OVER
THE RIDGE AXIS AND APPROACHING THE SE CONUS. THE SFC RIDGE AXIS WAS
GENERALLY OVER NE FLORIDA...AND A DOMINANT EAST COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY
WAS WEST OF VALDOSTA GA. PRECIP CONTINUED TO WEAKEN OVER INLAND
AREAS WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL FORCING.

.UPDATE...WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW A DECREASE IN POPS THROUGH ABOUT
1-2 AM WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SHIFTING WSW
THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THE 00Z JAX SOUNDING SHOWED SOME
DRIER AIR JUST ABOVE THE SFC MOVING INLAND FROM THE ESE...AND THIS
WILL AID IN FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS OUR EASTERN AREAS LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SUN MORNING. HAVE CONTINUED WITH AREAS OF FOG FOR ALL
ZONES...AND INCLUDED DENSE FOG WORDING FOR EASTERN AREAS WHERE SEA
BREEZE MOISTURE INCREASED THIS AFTN AND WHERE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
FELL.

BASED ON RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE TRENDS AND APPROACHING CIRRUS...UPDATED
THE MIN TEMP FORECAST TO REFLECT SLIGHTLY WARMER MINS TONIGHT ACROSS
THE AREA WITH NEAR 60 ACROSS INLAND SE GA TO THE MID 50S ACROSS MUCH
OF NE FL...TO LOW 60S ALONG THE ST JOHNS RIVER BASIN AND ATLANTIC
COAST.

.AVIATION...PREVAILNIG VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDNIGHT...THEN MVFR
DUE TO BR AT ALL SITES THROUGH SUNRISE LESS GNV WHERE IFR WAS
ADVERTISED BEGINNING AROUND 10Z.

.MARINE...LIGHT SE WINDS 10 KTS OR LESS WITH SEAS 1-3 FT. AGAIN
THE SWAN OUTPUT WAS ABOUT 1 FOOT TOO HIGH...SO ADJUSTED THE
FORECAST DOWN ABOUT 1 FT THROUGH SUN AFTN FOR COMBINED SEAS OF 2-4
FT DUE TO AN INCREASING ESE SWELL.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK SUNDAY.

.FIRE WX...ALTHOUGH RHS WILL FALL BELOW 35% ACROSS INLAND NE FL
SUNDAY AFTN...ERC VALUES AND WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW RED FLAG
WARNING CRITERIA.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 60 86 59 86 / 50 20 20 10
SSI 61 78 62 76 / 10 10 10 10
JAX 58 84 59 84 / 20 10 10 10
SGJ 60 77 62 78 / 10 10 10 10
GNV 57 83 58 84 / 40 10 10 0
OCF 57 84 57 84 / 40 0 10 0

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

ENYEDI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS COLUMBIA SC

136 PM EDT FRI MAR 16 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD AND
DISSIPATE OVER THE REGION SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REGAIN
CONTROL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FAIR WEATHER IN PROGRESS. DIURNAL HEATING WAS SLOWED SOME EARLIER
TODAY MY MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS...BUT GOOD DIURNAL HEATING EXPECTED
FOR THE REST OF TODAY. MODELS INDICATING SOME SHOWER OR POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FOR LATE TODAY. DISCREPANCIES CONTINUE TO BE
NOTED BETWEEN NAM AND GFS. LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE AN
ATMOSPHERE THAT IS STILL FAIRLY DRY OVER OUR FORECAST AREA CURRENTLY
WITH A LITTLE BIT OF A LOW LEVEL CAP...AND A FAIRLY HIGH LEVEL OF
FREE CONVECTION. LOCAL WRF RUN INDICATING SOME CONVECTION COULD
DEVELOP. THINK SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE SHOWERS...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE
THUNDER...LOOKS REASONABLE FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED
SHOWERS IN THE EVENING OTHERWISE PARTLY CLOUDY AND MOS
TEMPERATURES LOOK OK.

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE AS A WEAK UPPER RIDGE REMAINS
IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN STATES. THE SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE
WEAK SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE OVER THE WEEKEND. A BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS AND
MAY BECOME A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION. AIR MASS WILL BE WEAKLY TO
MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER AN INCH. KEPT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY DIURNAL.
LARGE SPREAD IN THE POP GUIDANCE AND CONFIDENCE LOW...BUT BELIEVE
NORTHERN AREAS SHOULD SEE THE MOST COVERAGE.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
THROUGH THE LONG TERM. ANOMALOUSLY HIGH HEIGHTS WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. ENSEMBLE POPS ARE AT OR
BELOW AVERAGE...SO WILL KEEP THE FORECAST MAINLY DRY. HIGHS IN
THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. LOWS IN THE 50S.

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
TONIGHT...OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS OR A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM THAT
COULD DEVELOP. CONFIDENCE OF CONVECTION AFFECTING THE TERMINALS NOT
SUFFICIENT TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. FOG POTENTIAL
TONIGHT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER. ANY LINGERING MID TO HIGH
LEVEL CLOUD COVER FROM CONVECTION TO OUR WEST WOULD WORK AGAINST
FOG. WILL FORECAST MVFR VSBYS FOR NOW...KEEPING IN MIND LOWER IFR
VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AT FOG PRONE AGS/OGB. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTER ANY MORNING FOG BURNS OFF. ANY
CONVECTION SATURDAY WILL BE AFTER 18Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR IN LATE
NIGHT/MORNING FOG THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS OR A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM THROUGH SUNDAY.

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

1023 PM CDT SAT MAR 17 2012

.DISCUSSION...
902 PM CDT

MAIN ISSUES FOR THE UPDATE THIS EVENING...ARE WITH LINGERING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND A LARGER MORE ORGANIZED COMPLEX OF
PRECIP JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA.

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW MORE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS AREAS IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...MAINLY ALONG AN
AXIS FROM JOLIET SOUTH TO PAXTON IN ILLINOIS. THESE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE DEVELOPING IN AXIS OF HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR AS WELL AS IN AN
AREA OF STEEPER LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...PER LATEST RUC ANALYSIS.
FURTHER NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHWEST INDIANA AND NORTHEAST
ILLINOIS...MUCH LOWER DEWPOINT AIR RESIDES AND HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT
OF A BARRIER THIS EVENING AND LIMITING ANY NORTHWARD
PROGRESSION...WITH THIS TREND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THIS AXIS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE LESS AND LESS IN COVERAGE/FREQUENCY THIS EVENING AS LAPSE
RATES LOWER AND DRIER AIR WORKS ITS WAY EAST ACROSS THE AREA.

A SOMEWHAT MORE ORGANIZED COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
RESIDES SOUTH OF THE CWA ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS...AND IS SLOWLY
WORKING ITS WAY EAST/NORTHEAST. ALTHOUGH...LATEST WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY/RUC ANALYSIS IS SHOWING THAT THIS MID LEVEL TROUGH IS
WEAKENING/DAMPENING WITH ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION. EXPECT THIS MID
LEVEL TROUGH TO BE ON THE WEAK SIDE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA WITH ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
SLOWLY PROGRESS EAST/NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CWA OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. HAVE LOWERED POPS AND CONFINED THEM TO THE SOUTH
AND SOUTHEAST CWA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM AXIS TO STAY ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA. WITH CONTINUED WEAK SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY DECREASING THIS EVENING...ANY SEVERE THREAT WILL ALSO
BE LIMITED IF NOT NON EXISTENT.

RODRIGUEZ

//PREV DISCUSSION...
258 PM CDT

OUR MID-SUMMER LIKE PATTERN CONTINUES. VISIBLE IMAGERY THIS
AFTERNOON SHOWS A FEW AREAS OF CUMULUS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED...HOWEVER
THE GREATER EMPHASIS HAS BEEN WITH THE CLUSTER OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MISSOURI...AND A
CHANNEL OF STRATUS THAT EXISTS ACROSS MINNESOTA SOUTH THROUGH
OKLAHOMA. THE STRATUS CHANNEL WAS CLOSER TO THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
WHERE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE REMAIN IN THE 60S...WHILE
TO THE EAST TEMPS ARE SURGING WELL INTO THE 70S AND LOW 80S.

FOR NORTHERN IL/NORTHWEST IN...NEARLY FULL SUNSHINE IS ANTICIPATED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE CHALLENGE REMAINS
FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING IS WILL CONVECTION DEVELOP.

IF ONE WAS TO JUST LOOK AT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL FROM MODEL
SOUNDINGS...IT WOULD APPEAR WE ARE POISED FOR DECENT THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT GIVEN SUCH HIGH CAPE VALUES. LAPSE RATES IN THE LOW/MID
LVLS ALSO WOULD SUPPORT THIS ACROSS NORTHERN IL/NORTHWEST
IN...HOWEVER THE LARGEST LIMITING FACTOR CONTINUES TO BE THE LACK OF
SHEAR THROUGHOUT THE LOWEST 0-6KM OF THE ATMOSPHERE. SPC
MESOANALYSIS PAGE HAS BEEN REFERENCED MANY TIMES THIS AFTERNOON IN
TRYING TO DIAGNOSE THE POTENTIAL TRIGGER...AND IT COULD POSSIBLY BE
SOME OLD BOUNDARIES FROM THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION OVER MCHENRY
COUNTY. THE TRIGGER COULD ALSO BE A LAKE BREEZE THAT WILL TRY TO
PUSH INLAND ACROSS COOK/LAKE COUNTIES IL...HOWEVER 925MB WINDS
APPEAR TO BE STRONG ENOUGH FROM THE SOUTH THAT THIS SHUD INHIBIT
MUCH OF AN INLAND PUSH. OR SUGGEST THAT THE LIFT WOULD BE FOCUSED
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE AREAS...SIMILAR TO FRIDAY EVENINGS
THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE.
HOWEVER...THIS IS A VERY LOW PROBABILITY AT THIS POINT FOR THIS
AFTN. REGARDLESS...HAVE CONTINUED TO MENTION THUNDER AS SOME
VERTICAL GROWTH IN THE CUMULUS FIELD HAS BEEN NOTED. GIVEN THE
ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY...THE POTENTIAL IS CLEARLY NOT ZERO.

BEYOND THIS...THE FOCUS TURNS TOWARDS THE APPROACHING 500MB WAVE
THAT PUSHES INTO CENTRAL IL LATER TONIGHT...OR AFT 00Z SUN.
500MB TROUGH CONTINUES TO PIVOT EAST AND SHUD ARRIVE ACROSS CENTRAL
IL ARND 6Z SUN. SOUNDINGS INDICATE CAPE CHANNEL BECOMES SKINNY...BUT
WITH AN APPROACHING LLVL JET AND SOME ADDTL FORCING...CAN/T RULE OUT
THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT. GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED
TO SHOW CORRECTIONS...INDICATING A LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE
PLACEMENT/COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY SUN PRECIP.

TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL YET AGAIN REMAIN MILD IN THE UPR 50S/ARND 60
DEGREES. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR YET ANOTHER VERY MILD AND NEAR
RECORD HIGHS FOR SUN AFTN.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
500MB WAVE EJECTS EAST SUN MORNING...AND MID LVL HEIGHTS BEGIN TO
RISE YET AGAIN. STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE REMAINS WELL WEST OF THE
REGION...THUS ANTICIPATE MINIMAL WEATHER IF ANY FOR SUN MIDDAY THRU
THE AFTN. HAVE HELD ONTO SOME LINGERING PRECIP IN THE MORNING
PERIOD...HOWEVER THIS WAS A LOW CONFIDENCE ASPECT. 850MB THERMAL
RIDGE OF 10 TO 12 DEG C BECOMES PARKED OVERHEAD...AND A FEW GUIDANCE
MEMBERS WARM THIS FEATURE FURTHER TO ARND 13 DEG C INTO MON. THIS
COULD BE A FUNCTION OF THE AMPLIFYING RIDGE AND THE DIGGING WEST
COAST TROUGH. THUS ALLOWING FURTHER FORCING OF WARMTH TO OCCUR.
NONETHELESS...ANTICIPATE SUN AFTN TO REMAIN DRY WITH TEMPS IN THE
LOW 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWFA. THIS APPEARS TO PERSIST INTO MON
WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO THE UPR 70S TO ARND 80 DEG. GIVEN SUCH A
MINIMAL LIFT ENVIRONMENT...AND A THIN CUMULUS FIELD...NOT
ANTICIPATING CONVECTION INTO MONDAY EITHER. SPC CONTINUES TO
ADVERTISE THE BEST CONVECTIVE THREAT SUN/MON WILL REMAIN WELL WEST
OF THE REGION...SO CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT WE WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY
QUIET UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEK.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO DEMONSTRATE THAT PERHAPS A BRIEF RESPITE TO
THE
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES COULD OCCUR TOWARDS THE SECOND HALF
OF NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER THIS IS A LOW PROBABILITY AT THIS JUNCTURE.
CURRENT PROJECTIONS ARE THAT A TROUGH WILL STEADILY DIG INTO THE
FOUR-CORNERS REGION OF THE CONUS...AIDING IN FURTHER AMPLIFICATION
OF THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO NORTH THROUGH HUDSON
BAY. BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS WILL BE A SHARP BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT
SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR A VERY ACTIVE...POTENTIALLY SEVERAL DAYS OF
SEVERE WEATHER FOR THE PLAINS/OZARKS/TENNESSEE VALLEY/OHIO
VALLEY/WESTERN GREAT LAKES. WHAT APPEARS TO BE SETTING UP IS A
TRADITIONAL RING-OF-FIRE...WHERE SYSTEMS DEVELOP ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND SLIDE ALONG THE NORTHERN END.
PWAT VALUES ARE PROGGED TO BE RUNNING ON THE ORDER OF 2 INCHES
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FAVORED CONVECTIVE ZONES IN THIS TIMEFRAME.

AT THE ONSET FOR TUE...IT APPEARS THIS ACTIVE ZONE WILL REMAIN WEST
OF THE NORTHERN IL/NORTHWEST IN AREAS. IT WILL ALL HINGE ON THE
PLACEMENT OF THE 500MB RIDGE FOR HOW PROGRESSIVE THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
THROUGHOUT THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER POTENTIAL FLY IN THE
OINTMENT TO PREVENT MUCH OF A PATTERN CHANGE WILL BE THE DOWNSTREAM
TROUGH OVER GREENLAND. THIS MAY ACT TO BLOCK THE RIDGE FROM MOVING
EAST...AND ALSO MAINTAIN THE WARMTH. HOWEVER...MANY VARIABLES WILL
IMPACT THE EVENTUAL OUTCOME.

CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST...MEDIUM.

BEACHLER

.CLIMATE...
925 AM CDT FRI

RECORD HIGHS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST HALF
OF NEXT WEEK. HERE ARE RECORDS AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE FOR ORD AND
RFD FOR NEXT FEW DAYS...

RECORD MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR CHICAGO
MAR 17 74 2009
MAR 18 74 1969
MAR 19 78 1921
MAR 20 76 1938

RECORD MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR ROCKFORD
MAR 17 74 2003
MAR 18 73 1945
MAR 19 78 1921
MAR 20 79 1921

NORMAL NUMBER OF 70 DEGREE DAYS IN MARCH FOR BOTH CHICAGO AND
ROCKFORD IS 1.2.

RECORD NUMBER OF DAYS WITH MAX TEMP 70 OR ABOVE IN MARCH
CHICAGO 9 IN 1945...6 IN 1910 AND 1907.
ROCKFORD 11 IN 1910...7 IN 1945.

RECORD FOR CONSECUTIVE 70 DEGREE DAYS IN MARCH
CHICAGO...5 FROM MARCH 12-16 1995.
ROCKFORD...9 MARCH 23-31 1910.

TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S ARE EXTREMELY RARE IN MARCH. FOR
CHICAGO...DATA GOES BACK TO 1872. THERE HAVE ONLY BEEN A TOTAL OF
10 DAYS IN MARCH WITH A HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 80 DEGREES. THE MOST
IN ONE YEAR WAS 2 IN 1986. FOR ROCKFORD RECORDS GO BACK TO 1906.
THERE HAVE ONLY BEEN 12 80 DEGREE DAYS IN MARCH. THE MOST IN ONE
YEAR WAS 2 IN 1907...1939...AND 1986.

ALLSOPP/TRS

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 03Z...

* MINIMAL CHANCE FOR -SHRA LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY.

MDB

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 03Z...

SHOWER/TS ACTIVITY HAS JUST ABOUT DISSIPATED ACROSS THE CHI METRO
AREA AND THERE IS NOT MUCH SUPPORT FOR NEW DEVELOPMENT THIS
EVENING. ATTENTION TURNS TO UPPER LOW SPINNING ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. PRECIP ACTIVITY HAS BECOME A LITTLE LESS
WIDESPREAD WITH THIS FEATURE AS IT LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD AND THE
BULK OF THE FORCING LOOKS TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT. OVERALL...IT IS LOOKING LESS FAVORABLE FOR PRECIP TO
WORK INTO THE THE TERMINALS AND THE REDUCED CHANCE IS BELOW
THRESHOLD FOR MENTIONING IN THE TAF AT ORD/DPA/MDW SO IT HAS BEEN
REMOVED. THE CHANCE IS NOT ZERO BUT PROBABLY ONLY IN THE 20
PERCENT RANGE. WITH GYY BEING A BIT FURTHER SOUTH HAVE KEPT A
VCSH/CB MENTION THERE.

MDB

FROM 00Z...

TSRA REMAINS THE MAIN CHALLENGE AND CONCERN THROUGH TONIGHT. ISOLD
TS CONTINUES TO FESTER EAST OF A LINE FROM DKB TO PNT EASTWARD
INTO THE WESTERN CHI METRO AREA. CONFIDENCE IS NOT ALL THAT HIGH
WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF A COHERENT FORCING MECHANISM TO KEY ON
BUT ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE FOR A FEW
HOURS...AND POSSIBLY EXPAND TO THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE. THOUGHT
IS THAT COVERAGE WILL START TO WANE WITH SUNSET BUT AN UPPER
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST MAY ALLOW THINGS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING. AS THIS UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES...ADDITIONAL
SHRA/TSRA WILL MOVE NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE AREA BUT SHOULD STAY
PRIMARILY SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS...BUT SOME ACTIVITY MAY APPROACH
THE CHI METRO TERMINALS AND GYY LATER TONIGHT. BETTER THREAT FOR
TS APPEARS TO BE FROM GYY SOUTH SO WILL KEEP ANY CB/TS MENTION
AWAY FROM ORD/MDW/DPA FOR NOW. PRECIP WILL EXIT TO THE SOUTHEAST
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS CONTINUE TO FLUCTUATE FROM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST BUT SHOULD BECOME A STEADIER SOUTH DIRECTION OVERNIGHT
WITH SOME GUSTS RETURNING LATE SUNDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME SHALLOW FOG MAY
DEVELOP FOR AREAS THAT SEE RAINFALL. SCATTERED TO PERIODICALLY
BROKEN CU WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING WITH BASES
RISING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

MDB

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 03Z...

* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT CHANCES FOR -SHRA ARE MINIMAL LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

MDB

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 00Z...

MONDAY...VFR.

TUESDAY...VFR WITH CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA ARRIVING TUESDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...OCCASIONAL SHRA/ISOLD TSRA. MVFR LIKELY WITH
PERIODIC IFR POSSIBLE.

FRIDAY...CHANCE SHRA. MVFR LIKELY.

MDB

.MARINE...
239 PM CDT

AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE EASTERN
SEABOARD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHILE BROAD LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS STATES SETTING UP A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
MODEST SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE LAKE. WITH VERY WARM AIR BEING
ADVECTED OVER THE WATERS...THIS WILL CREATE A PERSISTENT STABLE
LAYER THAT SHOULD KEEP SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE 10 TO 20 KT RANGE
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND 60S ADVECTING
OVER THE WATER WILL ALSO SET THE STAGE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT WHICH
MAY BECOME DENSE AT TIMES. BMD

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

902 PM CDT SAT MAR 17 2012

.DISCUSSION...
902 PM CDT

MAIN ISSUES FOR THE UPDATE THIS EVENING...ARE WITH LINGERING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND A LARGER MORE ORGANIZED COMPLEX OF
PRECIP JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA.

RODRIGUEZ

.PREV DISCUSSION...
258 PM CDT

FOR NORTHERN IL/NORTHWEST IN...NEARLY FULL SUNSHINE IS ANTICIPATED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE CHALLENGE REMAINS
FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING IS WILL CONVECTION DEVELOP.

TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL YET AGAIN REMAIN MILD IN THE UPR 50S/ARND 60
DEGREES. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR YET ANOTHER VERY MILD AND NEAR
RECORD HIGHS FOR SUN AFTN.

CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST...MEDIUM.

BEACHLER

.CLIMATE...
925 AM CDT FRI

RECORD HIGHS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST HALF
OF NEXT WEEK. HERE ARE RECORDS AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE FOR ORD AND
RFD FOR NEXT FEW DAYS...

RECORD MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR CHICAGO
MAR 17 74 2009
MAR 18 74 1969
MAR 19 78 1921
MAR 20 76 1938

RECORD MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR ROCKFORD
MAR 17 74 2003
MAR 18 73 1945
MAR 19 78 1921
MAR 20 79 1921

NORMAL NUMBER OF 70 DEGREE DAYS IN MARCH FOR BOTH CHICAGO AND
ROCKFORD IS 1.2.

RECORD NUMBER OF DAYS WITH MAX TEMP 70 OR ABOVE IN MARCH
CHICAGO 9 IN 1945...6 IN 1910 AND 1907.
ROCKFORD 11 IN 1910...7 IN 1945.

RECORD FOR CONSECUTIVE 70 DEGREE DAYS IN MARCH
CHICAGO...5 FROM MARCH 12-16 1995.
ROCKFORD...9 MARCH 23-31 1910.

ALLSOPP/TRS

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 00Z...

* ISOLD TS POSSIBLE NEAR THE TERMINALS...ESPECIALLY MDW...EARLY
THIS EVENING.

* LOW CHANCE FOR ISOLD TS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

MDB

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 00Z...

MDB

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 00Z...

* LOW CONFIDENCE IN TS OCCURRING AT THE TERMINALS.

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THAT THREAT FOR TS IS LOW LATE TONIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING.

* HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS.

MDB

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 00Z...

MONDAY...VFR.

TUESDAY...VFR WITH CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA ARRIVING TUESDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...OCCASIONAL SHRA/ISOLD TSRA. MVFR LIKELY WITH
PERIODIC IFR POSSIBLE.

FRIDAY...CHANCE SHRA. MVFR LIKELY.

MDB

.MARINE...
239 PM CDT

AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE EASTERN
SEABOARD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHILE BROAD LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS STATES SETTING UP A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
MODEST SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE LAKE. WITH VERY WARM AIR BEING
ADVECTED OVER THE WATERS...THIS WILL CREATE A PERSISTANT STABLE
LAYER THAT SHOULD KEEP SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE 10 TO 20 KT RANGE FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND 60S ADVECTING OVER
THE WATER WILL ALSO SET THE STAGE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT WHICH MAY
BECOME DENSE AT TIMES. BMD

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

1046 PM EDT SAT MAR 17 2012

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1046 PM EDT SAT MAR 17 2012

UPDATED POPS AGAIN TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT ACTIVITY OVER CENTRAL KY
AND PARTICULARLY NRN/CENTRAL TN THAT IS ON TRACK TO MOVE INTO THE
SWRN CWA OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. IR SAT SHOWS STORMS GENERALLY
MAINTAINING STRENGTH BUT SOME WEAKENING IS STILL EXPECTED AS THIS
AREA OF STORMS APPROACHES. WILL KEEP SCATTERED THUNDER WORDING FOR
THE FIRST HALF OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH ISOLATED WORDING THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE SEVERE THREAT DOES APPEAR TO BE DIMINISHING...
ESPECIALLY WHERE THE HAILERS HAVE BEEN MOST PROMINENT EARLIER THIS
EVENING. BAD NEWS IS THAT THIS AREA LOOKS TO SEE SOME MORE HEAVY
RAINERS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A QUICK CALL TO LOCAL EM/S AROUND
THE CUMBERLAND COUNTIES REVEALED SOME MINOR NUISANCE FLOODING AROUND
PULASKI AND ROCKCASTLE COUNTIES AND HAVE ISSUED AN URBAN/SMALL STREAM
ADVISORY THRU 330 AM TO ACCOUNT FOR THE NEXT WAVE PUSHING UP FROM
NRN/CENTRAL TN.

A QUICK LOOK AT OVERNIGHT LOWS REVEALED NOTHING TOO OUT OF LINE...
THOUGH DID MAKE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO LOWS IN THE NE WHERE THE
MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS HAVE MANAGED TO SLIP INTO THE MID 50S...AND
AROUND THE SWRN ZONES WHERE TEMPS ARE STILL HOLDING IN THE MID 60S.
OTHERWISE...LOWS GENERALLY BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND
60 ARE EXPECTED. UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 810 PM EDT SAT MAR 17 2012

AREA OF TSTMS MOVING INTO OUR SWRN COUNTIES AS EXPECTED WITH SOME
ENHANCEMENT OVER THE LAST HOUR. HAVE RECEIVED A COUPLE OF REPORTS OF
DIME SIZED HAIL WITH THESE STORMS AND HAVE UPDATED GRIDS TO BETTER
REFLECT POPS THU THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. STILL EXPECTING SOME WEAKENING
AFTER ABOUT 10 PM WITH THE LOSS OF INSTABILITY...THOUGH WITH A
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE NOTED MOVING INTO WRN/CENTRAL KY ON WV IMAGERY
CANNOT RULE OUT MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLATED TSTM OR TWO
AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL UPDATE ZONES AND HWO TO HIGHLIGHT THE HAIL
THREAT THRU THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAINERS THAT COULD PRODUCE SOME LOCALIZED NUISANCE FLOODING THRU
THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 435 PM EDT SAT MAR 17 2012

SFC BASED INSTABILITY STILL INCREASING OVER THE AREA TO THE POINT OF
LOOKING AT A FEW...SHORT LIVED...ISOLATED SHOWERS POPPING AROUND
NERN KY WITH NO LIGHTNING ATTM. MORE ROBUST ACTIVITY OVER NRN/CENTRAL
TN WOULD BE MOVING INTO OUR CUMBERLAND COUNTIES IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS
WHERE LAPS AND SPC MESO ANALYSIS SHOWS SBCAPE CLIMBING TO AROUND
2-3K. GIVEN THE WEAK KINEMATIC FIELDS...NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING TOO
STRONG BUT SLOW MOVING HEAVY RAINERS COULD POSE SOME SHORT TERM HYDRO
PROBLEMS LATER THIS EVENING. WILL DEFINITELY KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS
ACTIVITY AND UPDATE PRIOR TO 00Z IF NECESSARY. OTW...THE CURRENT
FORECAST APPEARS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE SITUATION AND NO MAJOR
CHANGES ARE NEEDED ATTM.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT SAT MAR 17 2012

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA AS OF 19Z HAS A ROBUST CU FIELD
DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL KENTUCKY EXTENDING INTO THE BLUE GRASS
COUNTIES AND ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR. SO FAR TODAY...ONLY A FEW
SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED AND JUDGING BY WHATS GOING ON UPSTREAM...THE
WEAK WAVE PICKED OUT IN THE RUC AND SREF...HAS ONLY BEEN ABLE TO GEN
UP A FEW SHOWERS. IT SEEMS WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT TILL TONIGHT FOR THE
STRONGER WAVE OUT IN WESTERN KENTUCKY TO MOVE INTO THE OUR CWFA TO
PRODUCE ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BY THIS POINT...THE
INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH FROM THE DAY WILL HAVE BEEN PRETTY MUCH CUT
OFF SO EXPECTING JUST SOME RUN OF THE MILL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

WITH AMPLE MOISTURE FROM THE GULF CONTINUING...THE WAVE MOVING
THROUGH TONIGHT WILL PRODUCE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. WATER VAPOR ALSO HINTED AT A
STRONG MOISTURE FLUX IN FROM THE BAJA REGION WITH A FEW EMBEDDED
WAVES AND THEREFORE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF PERIODIC SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT SEEMS LIKELY. BY DAYTIME
HEATING FOR SUNDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD
PERSIST. AT THIS POINT...DUE TO THE INCH AND A TENTH
PWATS...THINKING THAT RAINFALL DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE ONLY
FACTOR TO MONITOR CLOSELY. THE CONTINUED CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA
WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF STRONG STORMS IN CHECK BUT STORMS WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT SAT MAR 17 2012

THE MODELS BEGIN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST IN DECENT
AGREEMENT ALOFT. THEY ALL HAVE THE FULL LATITUDE WESTERN TROUGH
DESCENDING AND DEEPENING INTO A CUT OFF LOW OVER NORTHERN TEXAS
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. THIS RESULTS IN A STRONG DOWNSTREAM RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE APPALACHIANS FROM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
AROUND THIS TIME...THOUGH...THE MODELS START TO DIVERGE FROM EACH
OTHER WITH RESPECT TO THE THIS KEY FEATURE. THE ECMWF AND GEM MOVE
THE LOW EASTWARD QUICKER THAN THE GFS AND THIS DIFFERENCE CONTINUES
INTO THE DAY THURSDAY AS IT PIVOTS OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND STARTS TO ENCROACH ON THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. BY
THIS TIME THE WEAKER ECMWF IS ABOUT 200 MILES EAST OF THE GFS AND
THE GEM ABOUT THE SAME DISTANCE TO THE SOUTHEAST. GIVEN THE MID
LEVEL JET RUNNING SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
CONTINENT...PREFER THE SLOWER GFS IN THIS CUTOFF FAVORING FLOW
PATTERN. AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY CROSSES THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND
MOVES OVER WESTERN TENNESSEE AND KENTUCKY...THE ECMWF WILL START TO
RETROGRADE. AS A RESULT...BY FRIDAY EVENING THEY HAVE A SIMILAR
MAGNITUDE AND PLACEMENT FOR THE LOW...PRETTY MUCH CENTERED OVER EAST
KENTUCKY. FURTHER NORTH...THOUGH...THEY DIFFER ON THE MAGNITUDE OF A
TROUGH IN THE JET STREAM SO THAT EVEN THE SIMILARITIES OVER OUR AREA
TO END THE WEEK DOES NOT ENHANCE CONFIDENCE. THE MODELS THEN TAKE
THE REMAINS OF THEIR LOWS SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS AND
TO THE EAST COAST...AS RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS. DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE WITH HOW THE UPPER LOW IS FINALLY KICKED OUT OF THE
REGION WILL DOWN PLAY THIS POTENTIAL FOR NOW.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A CONTINUATION OF OUR RECENT HEAT
WAVE. THERE WILL BE A LULL IN THE SHOWERS AND STORMS OF THE PAST FEW
DAYS ON MONDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ENOUGH TO CAP SUPPRESS ANY
CONVECTION AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE DRIES OUT THE AIR MASS A BIT. EAST
KENTUCKY WILL REMAIN BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A
BAND OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE STACKED LOW AND ITS OCCLUDED
FRONT SLOWLY MOVE DEEPER INTO KENTUCKY. THE WARM WEATHER THAT
PRECEDED THE FRONT WILL HAVE ITS LAST HURRAH ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE
MATURE LOW...ITS OCCLUDED COLD SECTOR...AND RENEWED RAINS WILL
COMBINE TO RETURN US TO TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR AT THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND TO START THE WEEKEND. THE
BEST CONVECTIVE THREAT LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING
AS THAT BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL ALSO BE THE PEAK TIME
FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...AS WELL. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE
AREA...JUST THE SHOWERS AND STRAY THUNDERSTORMS TYPICALLY FOUND
SCATTERED AROUND THE CENTER OF A MATURE LOW CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE DAY FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY.

THE GRID LOAD CAME IN REASONABLE ENOUGH CONSIDERING THE SLUGGISH
MOVEMENT OF THE SFC FEATURES TO AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
DID FINE TUNE THE POPS FOR A SLOWER ARRIVAL ON THURSDAY...
ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST. PUT A DIURNAL COMPONENT INTO THE POP GRIDS
THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THE EXTENDED. ALSO...RAISED MAX TEMPS A
BIT FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND ADDED MINOR TERRAIN BASED
ADJUSTMENTS BENEATH THAT BUILDING RIDGE EACH NIGHT FROM MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 745 PM EDT SAT MAR 17 2012

SHRA AND TSTMS MOVING INTO THE AREA AT ISSUANCE WITH HISTORY OF
PRODUCING NICKLE TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL IN SOME OF THE HEALTHIER STORMS.
EXPECTING MOST OF THE ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 03Z BEFORE
INSTABILITY WANES AND ANY LINGERING ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT TRANSITIONS TO
ISOLATED SHRA. EVEN AROUND TSTMS...CIGS HAVE GENERALLY REMAINED
AROUND LOW END VFR BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED IFR VSBYS IN AND
AROUND ANY HEAVIER DOWNPOURS...WITH VARIABLE WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND
15 TO 20 KTS. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SCATTERED
SHRA AND TSTMS AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...MB
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM....GREIF
AVIATION...MB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LOUISVILLE KY

1033 PM EDT SAT MAR 17 2012

.Update...
Issued at 1030 PM EDT Mar 17 2012

Two areas of convection continue to push across the forecast area
this evening. One is a NW-SE arc of storms from near Salem Indiana
southeastward to near Standford Kentucky. The second area of storms
is down across our southeast sections near the Lake Cumberland
area. These storms are expected to continue to move eastward at 25
to 30 MPH and will be capable of producing very heavy rains, gusty
winds and quite a lightning show. These storms are moving through
an uncontaminated/unstable environment which is slowly stabilizing
due to the loss of heating. Mixed-layer CAPE values are still
around 1000 J/Kg but CIN is spreading over the region as the PBL
stabilizes. For the next several hours, have inserted likely PoPs
for area generally east of I-65. Expect the bulk of this activity
to slide east of our forecast area by midnight-100 AM EDT.

Further west, convective line of storms continues to march
eastward. This convection is being forced due to a mid-level wave
rotating from eastern MO into southern IL. The latest models take
this wave northeastward into northern Indiana overnight. Airmass
out ahead of this line is slightly unstable with mixed-layer CAPE
values between 800-1100 J/Kg. However, latest radar data from KPAH
suggests that these storms are becoming more outflow dominated with
time. Some additional convection may fire along the southern flank
for the gust front, but given the increasing stability and EML over
the region, convection may have some trouble sustaining itself. The
southern IL convection has shown a tendency to be moving more
northeast and that seems meteorologically correct given that the
upper wave is transversing northeastward. Given the recent radar
trends, feel that best chances of additional convection will be
generally north of the Ohio River overnight. However, the
atmosphere over our NW CWA and in toward the I-65 corridor has been
convectively worked over, so this activity may end up weakening as
it heads into our region. Further south, feel that isolated showers
will be possible overnight as the the nocturnal low-level jet ramps
up and we get some warm air advection over the top of the existing
cold pool from the earlier convection. The latest HRRR and rapid
refresh RUC seem to support this scenario quite well.

Update issued at 653 PM EDT Mar 17 2012

Regional radar mosaics show an area of thunderstorms generally
oriented along and west of I-65. These storms are moving slowly to
the east-northeast at 15 to 20 MPH. Atmosphere currently is in a
weakly sheared but highly buoyant state. Axis of mixed layer CAPE is
running about 1500-2000 J/kg generally along and east of the current
thunderstorm activity while a more stable atmosphere is located to
our southwest. Think that the atmosphere to our southwest is being
more controlled by a warmer elevated mixed layer complimented by
much weaker mid-level lapse rates. Over the next couple of hours,
we expect convection to slowly rumble off to the east with the
highest coverage out in the I-65 corridor.

Activity will likely remain quite strong, but the lack of strong
lapse rates seems to be keeping the updraft speeds in check which is
limiting the possibility of large hail. However, any of these
storms will be capable of producing isolated gusty winds and large
hail this evening. I would think that we should see some weakening
and decrease of areal coverage of the storms once we approach
sunset. However, this may only be a temporary break as we have a
mid-level wave out to the west that will be moving in overnight.
This feature may produce additional convection tonight. However,
activity may not be as widespread depending on how much convective
overturning we see this evening with the current activity.

.Short Term (Tonight through Sunday Night)...
Updated at 250 PM EDT Mar 17 2012

Temperatures this afternoon have risen into the mid to upper 70s
across the region with dewpoints in the low 60s. Instability has
been on this rise as well with LAPS analysis showing LI`s of -6
across the western portion of the forecast area to -4 across the
eastern portion. It is even more unstable to the west of the
forecast area where a line of showers and thunderstorms has
developed. The latest radar scans show additional isolated showers
and thunderstorms popping up across the forecast area. The main line
of storms will continue to move northeast through the afternoon and
early evening across central Kentucky and southern Indiana. If the
storms are able to become strong enough they will be capable of
producing hail and possibly some strong winds, though hail will be
the main threat. This activity should wane this evening with the
loss of daytime heating.

Another shortwave will cross the area overnight. Models do indicate
that this will spark additional showers and thunderstorms late
tonight, so will continue to mention scattered precip through
tomorrow morning. Rain chances will diminish tomorrow afternoon as
the
ridge aloft begins to amplify. Sunday night looks to be the start of
a couple of days of dry weather.

Temperatures will continue to be warm. Lows Sunday and Monday
morning will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Highs tomorrow will
be in the lower 80s.

.Long Term (Monday - Saturday)...
Updated at 245 PM EDT Mar 17 2012

First half of the week will have an amplified upper pattern, with a
deep trof working into the Rockies and a strong ridge extending up
through the Great Lakes. Precip will be suppressed Mon-Tue as the
ridge amplifies over the Ohio Valley. Expect near-record heat both
Monday and Tuesday.

Current records and forecast temps for Mon/Tues:

Mon(3/19) Tues(3/20)
Record/Forecast:
Louisville 83(1907)/84 85(1894)/83
Lexington 79(1945)/81 81(1894)/81
Bowling Green 86(1907)/84 85(1921)/82
Frankfort 81(1948)/82 82(1921)/83

By Wednesday the trof will move into the Plains, and the upper ridge
will retreat just far enough east to open us up for afternoon
thunderstorms again, with the highest POPs west of Interstate 65.
Unseasonable warmth will persist yet another day, but clouds and
maybe precip will limit temps to the mid/upper 70s.

Thu-Fri the models begin to diverge, as a closed upper low develops
and makes its way east into the Tennessee Valley by Friday night.
ECMWF is about 12 hrs faster than the latest GFS with this system.
Whenever this happens expect widespread precip under the difluent
upper flow ahead of the closed low. However, still not enough
confidence in the timing to go with a likely POP, so will carry a
high-end chance POP both Thursday and Friday. Temps will trend quite
a bit cooler, especially once we get under the upper low, but will
still be above normal. Clouds and moist southerly flow will keep min
temps well above climo, generally in the 50s.

Upper low finally edges to our east on Saturday, allowing us to dry
out from west to east. Tapered down to just a slight chance in the
east, with temps only slightly above normal. It is worth noting that
this is still a low-confidence forecast, as closed upper lows are
not always handled well by the models, and if anything the models
are too fast.

.Aviation (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Updated at 655 PM EDT Mar 17 2012

Scattered convection will continue through the evening hours and
affect primarily KBWG and KSDF this evening. Most concentrated area
of convection is generally along and just west of I-65 between KSDF
and KBWG. KBWG should see a decent amount of convection over the
next few hours as convection to the west of the terminal moves
east. Current thinking is that convection should generally be east
of KBWG by 18/01-02Z.

Additional convection is just southwest of KSDF and is moving
northeast. Current thinking is that convection will be likely at
KSDF through 18/01-02Z as well.

Further east at KLEX, convection is not all that widespread and more
scattered in nature. However, the atmosphere is unstable and
scattered convection will certainly be possible through the evening
hours. Not really sure how much of the convection out over the I-65
corridor will make it over into the KLEX terminal. For now, plan on
keeping VCTS in the TAFs and monitor through the evening.

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
$$

Update...........MJ
Short Term.......EER
Long Term........RAS
Aviation.........MJ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

810 PM EDT SAT MAR 17 2012

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 810 PM EDT SAT MAR 17 2012

AREA OF TSTMS MOVING INTO OUR SWRN COUNTIES AS EXPECTED WITH SOME
ENHANCEMENT OVER THE LAST HOUR. HAVE RECEIVED A COUPLE OF REPORTS OF
DIME SIZED HAIL WITH THESE STORMS AND HAVE UPDATED GRIDS TO BETTER
REFLECT POPS THU THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. STILL EXPECTING SOME WEAKENING
AFTER ABOUT 10 PM WITH THE LOSS OF INSTABILITY...THOUGH WITH A
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE NOTED MOVING INTO WRN/CENTRAL KY ON WV IMAGERY
CANNOT RULE OUT MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLATED TSTM OR TWO
AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL UPDATE ZONES AND HWO TO HIGHLIGHT THE HAIL
THREAT THRU THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAINERS THAT COULD PRODUCE SOME LOCALIZED NUSANCE FLOODING THRU
THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 435 PM EDT SAT MAR 17 2012

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT SAT MAR 17 2012

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT SAT MAR 17 2012

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 745 PM EDT SAT MAR 17 2012

SHRA AND TSTMS MOVING INTO THE AREA AT ISSUANCE WITH HISTORY OF
PRODUCING NICKLE TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL IN SOME OF THE HEALTIER STORMS.
EXPECTING MOST OF THE ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 03Z BEFORE
INSTABILITY WANES AND ANY LINGERING ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT TRANSITIONS TO
ISOLATED SHRA. EVEN AROUND TSTMS...CIGS HAVE GENERALLY REMAINED
AROUND LOW END VFR BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED IFR VSBYS IN AND
AROUND ANY HEAVIER DOWNPOURS...WITH VARIABLE WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND
15 TO 20 KTS. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SCATTERED
SHRA AND TSTMS AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...MB
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM....GREIF
AVIATION...MB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

745 PM EDT SAT MAR 17 2012

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 435 PM EDT SAT MAR 17 2012

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT SAT MAR 17 2012

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT SAT MAR 17 2012

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 745 PM EDT SAT MAR 17 2012

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...MB
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM....GREIF
AVIATION...MB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LOUISVILLE KY

554 PM EDT FRI MAR 16 2012

.Update...
Issued at 654 PM EDT Fri Mar 16 2012

Showers have developed over the west central portion of the CWA with
MCV that is slowly rotating through western Kentucky. A look at
forecast soundings shows that updrafts should struggle above 15-20 K
feet as thermal profile warms significantly above this level. Do not
expect much more than a few moderate showers mainly across central
Kentucky, although cannot rule out an isolated thunderstorm or two.

Have tweaked pops just a bit through the overnight hours with the
potential for a scattered line of mainly showers to develop over the
Bowling Green region and lift northeastward from 06 to 12z. Models
disagree on the timing with NAM/GFS more toward dawn, however higher
res HRRR which has current situation handled well begins precip just
after 06 z. The main culprit appears to be some weak isentropic
lift with a weak low level jet. Will monitor trends and update
timing as needed. Otherwise, the rest of the forecast looks on track
at this point.

.Short Term (Tonight through Saturday Night)...
Updated at 255 PM EDT Mar 16 2012

Meso low continues to spin just to our west, now with a surface
reflection in latest MSAS analysis. Fortunately for us, persistent
cloud cover for most of the day so far has inhibited convection over
our CWA. Western Kentucky has been clearer though, and that area now
is seeing some convections, with cells initiating over eastern PAH`s
forecast area. Temperatures are climbing over the western forecast
area, so should start seeing some action there a little later this
afternoon, especially as that low drifts eastward.

Beyond this afternoon and through Saturday night, the atmosphere
will remain plenty moist for additional shower and storm
development. Confidence in timing/location still is not high though.
Precipitable waters will be above an inch. Will have multiple
perturbations in the flow aloft coming across the region, which will
enhance development, especially should these come during any peak
heating times. Given the moist atmosphere, diurnal temperature
swings should be short, and expect readings well above normal for
mid March. Going for lows each night around 60 and highs generally
in the upper 70s.

.Long Term (Sunday - Friday)...
Updated at 255 PM EDT Mar 16 2012

For Sunday, another shortwave in the upper level flow will cross the
Ohio Valley. The models are still having a bit of a hard time with
the timing and the placement of this feature. This will impact how
widespread storms become on Sunday. For now we will continue to
carry a 30-40% chance for thunderstorms. Soundings do become
relatively unstable during the day so a few of these storms may
become strong. These will be the pulse type like we have seen the
last couple of days, with hail being the main threat.

For the beginning of the work week, a highly amplified ridge will
build over the area. This will lead to partly cloudy skies and dry
weather Monday through Tuesday. At the surface, winds will remain
out of the south. Unseasonably warm temperatures will continue with
a shot at breaking some record highs Sunday through Monday.

Current records and forecast temps for Sun/Mon/Tues:

ASOS Sun(3/18) Mon(3/19) Tues(3/20)
Record/Forecast:
SDF 82(1982)/81 83(1907)/83 85(1894)/82
LEX 79(1982)/79 79(1945)/81 81(1894)/81
BWG 87(1908)/82 86(1907)/83 85(1921)/82
FFT 80(1908)/80 81(1948)/82 82(1921)/81

We will see a big change in the weather for the second half of the
week. A large upper level low will approach and cross the region
Wednesday through Friday. Clouds will be on the increase on
Wednesday, keeping temperatures a few degrees cooler than the
previous days. Rain from this system looks to move in Wednesday
night with showers and thunderstorms continuing into Friday as the
low slowly crosses the region. Temperatures will be much cooler
Thursday and Friday. Despite this, temps will remain above normal
for this time of year with highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s and
lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s.

.Aviation (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Updated at 130 PM EDT Mar 16 2012

Unsettled weather continues across the region ahead of a mid level
low just to our west. Persistent cloud cover through the morning has
limited instability this morning and likely will keep thunder to a
minimum this afternoon. Have warmer weather to the west, which
likely will cause some storms to develop out there that could move
into the TAF sites later. Timing still a question mark, but given
above normal moisture in the atmosphere and presence of upper
forcing, will keep in vicinity shower chances through the period and
modify as activity becomes more focused. Winds are expected to be
light, but will pick up more steadily from the south during the day
Saturday.

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
$$

Update...........BJS
Short Term.......RJS
Long Term........EER
Aviation.........RJS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LOUISVILLE KY

107 AM EDT FRI MAR 16 2012

.Update...
Issued at 1104 PM EDT Mar 15 2012

Center of the MCV is sliding into eastern Kentucky, taking the more
widespread rain showers with it. However, new showers and storms
have developed in the wake of the MCV where mid level lapse rates
are rapidly steepening. A line of storms has developed across
southern Indiana to just south of Louisville that has been prolific
at producing lightning. Will need to continue to monitor storms for
small hail as low to mid levels cool rapidly and overall freezing
and wet bulb zero heights lower.

Scattered storms will gradually slide east across southern Indiana
and north central Kentucky through the next few hours, then focus
will shift to another convective complex just west of the
Mississippi/Ohio River confluence as it slowly slides east southeast
toward the area. Models show showers and thunderstorms gradually
weakening as they move toward the western CWA overnight, however
still expect scattered to numerous showers and storms to survive,
moving into areas west of I-65 between 3 and 7 am. The earlier side
of the window will be achieved if storms hold together. As we move
through the dawn and mid to late morning hours, coverage of showers
and thunderstorms looks to increase as mid level disturbance moves
into the region. Best chance for precipitation appears to be across
south central Kentucky.

Temperatures have already fallen to around the 60 degree mark and do
not expect them to move a whole lot through the overnight as dew
points remain in the upper 50s and heavy sky cover will linger.
Updated products already out.

Update issued at 915 PM EDT Mar 15 2012

Cancelled the remainder of the watch box across the eastern CWA as
severe threat has ceased. Still watching showers and a few
thunderstorms move across southern Indiana and central Kentucky.
Latest RUC analysis shows MCV center over central Kentucky. This
feature will continue to slide east, taking most of the rain and
convection with it. Will be looking at updating grids over the next
hour or two as things have settled down in the wake of
afternoon/evening storms.

Update issued at 730 PM EDT Mar 15 2012

Have canceled more counties out of the severe thunderstorm watch.
Cells really weakening, but will leave watch over our
eastern/northeastern CWA in case anything randomly develops as MCV
moves through. Update out shortly.

Update issued at 650 PM EDT Mar 15 2012

Have canceled the Severe Thunderstorm Watch west of the leading edge
of the area of convection in central KY. Some cells will continue in
central KY early this evening, along with lightning in the anvil of
this mesoscale convective system (MCS). However, storms are not
expected to be severe anymore in areas where the Watch was canceled
early due to a stabilizing low-level air mass. Have kept the Watch
in effect for east-central and eastern sections of south-central KY.
Will clear these areas when the threat passes. No other changes to
the near term forecast at this time.

Update issued at 615 PM EDT Mar 15 2012

Large area of convection is currently moving thru central KY at this
time. There have been numerous reports of 1 inch diameter hail with
the storms earlier this afternoon with a few golf ball size reports
from the strongest individual cells. Currently, storms have
congealed into a more mesoscale area over central KY. KLVX Doppler
radar shows a pronounced mesoscale convective vortex (MCV) on the
northern end of this area of showers and storms, which has helped
fuel a more organized convective cold pool and some strong wind
gusts (up to 60 mph) over central KY.

Over the next 1-2 hours, the line in central KY will continue
eastward with a decreasing trend in intensity. The more cellular
storms ahead of the line will move east of our area with also a slow
decrease in hail size potential. Later this evening, most of the
rain will move east of our area, but can`t preclude isolated or
scattered nocturnal showers or a few storms overnight again.

As for the Severe Thunderstorm Watch, will evaluate this shortly,
but looks like anything behind the line may be able to be canceled
early. The area of convection in Missouri at this time should not
affect us in the near term given its current movement and as the
atmosphere in our area will have stabilized somewhat given the
current convection in our area.

.Short Term (Tonight through Friday Night)...
Updated at 315 PM EDT Mar 15 2012

...Severe thunderstorm watch for pulse storms/hail...

In the wake of a convective complex that crossed southern Indiana
earlier this morning, cumulus cloud development has been suppressed
until recently. However, the atmosphere has become quite unstable
and scattered to numerous thunderstorms have developed over
southwest IN and central KY and will spread over the entire area by
late afternoon. Given the strong instability across the region and
weak shear, severe pulse storms are expected and will continue and
thus, SPC has given our entire area a severe thunderstorm watch.
Expect this to continue through the late afternoon and early evening
hours. Storms will lose their strength with sunset but scattered
convection will continue through the overnight hours most likely.

For tonight through Friday night, the Lower Ohio Valley will remain
within a very mild and moist early summer-like pattern. Several
disturbances that are hard to nail down the timing will move across
the region. Scattered thunderstorms are quite possible at any time
from tonight through Friday night. For Friday, feel that the best
chance of convection will lie south of the Ohio River.

Expect overnight lows tonight not far from 60, and highs Friday in
the upper 70s.

.Long Term (Saturday - Thursday)...
Updated at 300 PM EDT Mar 15 2012

Persistent and anomalous pattern will continue for much of the
week. Deep SW flow will keep things unsettled for the first part of
the weekend, so will continue to carry a chance POP for Saturday
afternoon. The upper ridge over the Deep South will amplify Sunday
and into the early part of next week, gradually shutting off our
rain chances. Slight chance Sunday and then a dry forecast Mon-Wed.
A bit more uncertainty creeps in around Day 7, as the models show a
deep trof over the Rockies closing off into a deep upper low over
the Southern Plains by Wednesday. ECMWF brings this feature far
enough east for precip to return on Thursday, while the GFS is about
a day slower. The forecast reflects a compromise and will include a
chance POP for Thursday, but reality will be all or nothing
depending on which solution verifies.

Temps will run 20-25 degrees above climo both day and night through
the period.

.Aviation (06Z TAF Issuance)...
Updated at 108 AM EDT Mar 16 2012

Persistent bands of showers and thunderstorms have plagued the SDF
terminal in the wake of a mesoscale convective vortex that formed
with this afternoon/evening convection. This will continue for at
least the next couple of hours before rain chances scoot off to the
east. LEX is starting to see stratiform rain spreading eastward from
the storms which should persist until around 6 am EDT. BWG should
remain dry for the majority of the overnight, however will have to
watch a secondary convective complex moving east from the
Mississippi/Ohio River confluence toward dawn. SDF and LEX should
stay mostly VFR despite the rain showers, although could briefly
fall into the MVFR range for visibilities.

As we move into the daylight hours on Wednesday, expect the best
coverage of showers and perhaps a few rumbles of thunder nearest the
BWG TAF site as decaying convective complex moves over the region.
By mid to late morning, expect that scattered shower and
thunderstorm chances will be on the increase again through the
afternoon and evening as mid level disturbances moves over the area.
Will forecast VFR and amend with any more certain time frames of
thunderstorm activity.

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
$$

Updates..........TWF/AL/BJS
Short Term.......JSD/AL
Long Term........RAS
Aviation.........BJS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAY ME

1204 PM EDT FRI MAR 16 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON,
AND PASS TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. A MASSIVE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRY AIR WILL BUILD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY,
THEN SETTLE TO OUR SOUTHEAST SUNDAY. A WEAKENING DISTURBANCE
MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING CLOUDS AND SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD, BRINGING SUNNY SKIES AND
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...

NOON...SURFACE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN MAINE
MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS WILL BE SLOW TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING...AND
POCKETS OF LIGHT ICING WILL CONTINUE THERE NEXT FEW HOURS. HAVE
EXTENDED THE FREEZING RAIN ADV THERE TIL 20Z...AND LET IT EXPIRE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA.

935 AM...GIVEN MESONET TEMPERATURES AND RADAR TRENDS I DECIDED TO
EXTEND THE PRESENT ADVISORY UNTIL 16Z FOR THE CURRENT ADVISORY
AREA. OTHERWISE...GIVEN FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND UPSTREAM ACTIVITY
ON RADAR MOSAIC HAVE INCLUDED THUNDER IN THE GRIDS FOR LATER
TODAY. 1ST PERIOD GRIDS WERE LARGELY ADJUSTED BASED ON MESONET AND
RADAR TRENDS. HAV A GUD DAY.

PREV DISC...
WILL CONTINUE THE FRZG RAIN ADVISORIES FOR WRN..CNTRL AND ERN INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF MAINE THRU MID MRNG. WITH THE WAA PATTERN SPRDG ACRS THE
REGION RADAR SHOWS LGT STRATIFORM RN SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA FM
W-E. TEMPS BLO FREEZING OVER MOST OF WRN/CNTRL AND ERN INTERIOR
MAINE THIS MORNING SO SOME LGT FRZG RAIN TO CAUSE SOME PROBLEMS
EARLY THIS MORNING. TEMPS OVER MANY OF THE ADVSRY AREAS A FEW DEGS
BLO THE 32 DEG MARK. ELSEWHERE IN NH AND SRN AND CSTL ME TEMPS
NOW ABV FREEZING AND SLOWLY WARMING. THE FIRST BATCH OF LGT PCPN
MOVES THRU ERLY THIS MRNG AS PER HRRR SUGGESTS AND THEN ANOTHER
BATCH LATER IN THE MRNG AND ERLY AFTN BUT BY THEN ALL SFC TEMPS TO
BE WELL ABV FRZG. USED A BLEND OF THE MAV/MET GUID.

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
LIGHT RAIN COMES TO AN END BY ERLY EVNG FOLLOWED BY CLEARING AS
HIGH PRES GRDLY BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE SUNNY
AND WARMER AS H85 TEMPS DURING THE AFTN REACH +6 TO +8C. HIGH PRES
CRESTS AND BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE AREA SO WINDS WILL BE NIL.
WITH TEMPS REACHING INTO THE 60S...AN AFTN SEA BREEZE CAN BE
EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST. STAYED CLOSE WITH GUID FOR MAX TEMPS WITH
A BIAS TO THE MAV.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS RIDGING BUILDS
OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD. MODEL GUIDANCE IS EXCESSIVELY COOL ON MIN
TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SLIGHTLY TOO COOL ON MAX
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE AFTER
COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING NWS OFFICES.

A WEAKENING DISTURBANCE TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ON
MONDAY...BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THAN SUNDAY
AND SOME MORE CLOUDS. ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY THE RIDGE STRONGLY
RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF WITH TEMPERATURES TOUCHING THE LOWER 70S IN
INTERIOR SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW HAMPSHIRE AND INTERIOR
SOUTHWESTERN MAINE. THIS IS SOME 25F ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. MODEL CONSISTENCY BREAKS DOWN A BIT FOR THURSDAY AS THE
WESTERLIES BEGIN TO SAG TOWARD NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...BREAKING
DOWN THE RIDGE AND THE PERIOD OF ABNORMALLY WARM WEATHER.

.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MVFR TO IFR CONDS TODAY IN LIGHT RAIN...DURING THE
ERLY MRNG HRS SOME FRZG RN EXPECTED OVER MOST CENTRAL AND WRN
AREAS OF MAINE AND NRN NH. BY TNGT CONDS IMPROVE TO VFR FM NW-SE.

LONG TERM...EXTENDED PERIOD OF VFR EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...HIGH PRES SETTLES OVER THE WATERS WITH VERY LITTLE PRES
GRADIENT SO WINDS/SEAS TO BE MINIMAL THRU SATURDAY. NO FLAGS.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND WAVES EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MEZ008-009-013-014.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

$$
ES

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAY ME

941 AM EDT FRI MAR 16 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WARM FRONT WAS PUSHING SCATTERED RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING. LOW PRESSURE
WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON, PASSING SOUTH
OF THE AREA. A MASSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR WILL
BUILD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY, THEN SETTLE TO OUR SOUTHEAST
SUNDAY. A WEAKENING DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WILL BRING CLOUDS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE
EASTERN SEABOARD, BRINGING SUNNY SKIES AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MVFR TO IFR CONDS TODAY IN LIGHT RAIN...DURING THE
ERLY MRNG HRS SOME FRZG RN EXPECTED OVER MOST CENTRAL AND WRN
AREAS OF MAINE AND NRN NH. BY TNGT CONDS IMPROVE TO VFR FM NW-SE.

LONG TERM...EXTENDED PERIOD OF VFR EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...HIGH PRES SETTLES OVER THE WATERS WITH VERY LITTLE PRES
GRADIENT SO WINDS/SEAS TO BE MINIMAL THRU SATURDAY. NO FLAGS.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND WAVES EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR MEZ008-009-013-
014-020>022.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

$$
ES

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAY ME

726 AM EDT FRI MAR 16 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WARM FRONT WAS PUSHING SCATTERED RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY THIS MORNING. LOW
PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES LATER TODAY...PASSING SOUTH
OF THE AREA. A MASSIVE DRY AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY...SETTLING TO OUR SOUTHEAST SUNDAY.
A WEAKENING DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL
BRING CLOUDS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY. THEN HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...BRINGING SUNNY SKIES AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
WILL CONTINUE THE FRZG RAIN ADVISORIES FOR WRN..CNTRL AND ERN INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF MAINE THRU MID MRNG. WITH THE WAA PATTERN SPRDG ACRS THE
REGION RADAR SHOWS LGT STRATIFORM RN SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA FM
W-E. TEMPS BLO FREEZING OVER MOST OF WRN/CNTRL AND ERN INTERIOR
MAINE THIS MORNING SO SOME LGT FRZG RAIN TO CAUSE SOME PROBLEMS
EARLY THIS MORNING. TEMPS OVER MANY OF THE ADVSRY AREAS A FEW DEGS
BLO THE 32 DEG MARK. ELSEWHERE IN NH AND SRN AND CSTL ME TEMPS
NOW ABV FREEZING AND SLOWLY WARMING. THE FIRST BATCH OF LGT PCPN
MOVES THRU ERLY THIS MRNG AS PER HRRR SUGGESTS AND THEN ANOTHER
BATCH LATER IN THE MRNG AND ERLY AFTN BUT BY THEN ALL SFC TEMPS TO
BE WELL ABV FRZG. USED A BLEND OF THE MAV/MET GUID.

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
LIGHT RAIN COMES TO AN END BY ERLY EVNG FOLLOWED BY CLEARING AS
HIGH PRES GRDLY BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE SUNNY
AND WARMER AS H85 TEMPS DURING THE AFTN REACH +6 TO +8C. HIGH PRES
CRESTS AND BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE AREA SO WINDS WILL BE NIL.
WITH TEMPS REACHING INTO THE 60S...AN AFTN SEABREEZE CAN BE
EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST. STAYED CLOSE WITH GUID FOR MAX TEMPS WITH
A BIAS TO THE MAV.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS RIDGING BUILDS
OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD. MODEL GUIDANCE IS EXCESSIVELY COOL ON MIN
TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SLIGHTLY TOO COOL ON MAX
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE AFTER
COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING NWS OFFICES.

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MVFR TO IFR CONDS TODAY IN LIGHT RAIN...DURING THE
ERLY MRNG HRS SOME FRZG RN EXPECTED OVER MOST CENTRAL AND WRN
AREAS OF MAINE AND NRN NH. BY TNGT CONDS IMPROVE TO VFR FM NW-SE.

LONG TERM...EXTENDED PERIOD OF VFR EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...HIGH PRES SETTLES OVER THE WATERS WITH VERY LITTLE PRES
GRADIENT SO WINDS/SEAS TO BE MINIMAL THRU SATURDAY. NO FLAGS.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND WAVES EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MEZ008-
009-013-014-020>022.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAY ME

401 AM EDT FRI MAR 16 2012

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WILL CONTINUE THE FRZG RAIN ADVISORIES FOR NRN NH AND ALL OF WRN
AND CNTRL INTERIOR PORTIONS OF MAINE THRU ERLY THIS MRNG AND
FURTHER E UNTIL MID MRNG. WITH WAA PATTERN SPRDG ACRS REGION
RADAR SHOWS LGT STRATIFORM RN SPREADING INTO THE AREA FM W-E AND
TEMPS BLO FREEZING OVER MOST OF THE AREA SO SOME LGT FRZG RAIN TO
CAUSE SOME PROBLEMS EARLY THIS MORNING. TEMPS OVER MANY OF THE
ADVSRY AREAS A FEW DEGS BLO THE 32 DEG MARK. FIRST BATCH OF LGT
PCPN MOVES THRU ERLY THIS MRNG AS PER HRRR SUGGESTS AND THEN
ANOTHER BATCH LATER IN THE MRNG AND ERLY AFTN BUT BY THEM ALL SFC
TEMPS TO BE WELL ABV FRZG. USED A BLEND OF THE MAV/MET GUID.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
LIGHT RAIN COMES TO AN END BY ERLY EVNG FOLLOWED BY CLEARING AS
HIGH PRES GRDLY BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE SUNNY
AND WARMER AS H85 TEMPS DURING THE AFTN REACH +6 TO +8C. HIGH PRES
CRESTS AND BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE AREA SO WINDS WILL BE NIL.
WITH TEMPS REACHING INTO THE 60S...AN AFTN SEABREEZE CAN BE
EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST. STAYED CLOSE WITH GUID FOR MAX TEMPS WITH
A BIAS TO THE MAV.

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MVFR TO IFR CONDS TODAY IN LIGHT RAIN...DURING THE
ERLY MRNG HRS SOME FRZG RN EXPECTED OVER MOST CENTRAL AND WRN
AREAS OF MAINE AND NRN NH. BY TNGT CONDS IMPROVE TO VFR FM NW-SE.

LONG TERM...EXTENDED PERIOD OF VFR EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...HIGH PRES SETTLES OVER THE WATERS WITH VERY LITTLE PRES
GRADIENT SO WINDS/SEAS TO BE MINIMAL THRU SATURDAY. NO FLAGS.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND WAVES EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

.FIRE WEATHER...
VERY DRY AND VERY WARM CONDITIONS WILL SET UP ON SUNDAY...THEN
AGAIN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BE PROBLEMATIC...BUT WITH DIMINISHING SNOW
COVER AND TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL...PRE-GREENUP FUELS WILL
DRY RAPIDLY.

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MEZ007-
012-019.
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MEZ008-
009-013-014-020>022.
NH...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NHZ001-
002-004.
MARINE...NONE.

$$
SHORT TERM...MARINE
LONG TERM...STJEAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAY ME

119 AM EDT FRI MAR 16 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT...THEN
PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND ON SATURDAY SETTLING TO OUR SOUTHEAST SUNDAY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...PROVIDING FAIR AND WARM WEATHER.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL NOON/...
1AM UPDATE: HAVE ISSUED FRZG RAIN ADVSRIES FOR NRN NH AND ALL OF
WRN AND CNTRL INTERIOR PORTIONS OF MAINE. WITH WAA PATTERN SPRDG
ACRS REGION RADAR SHOWS LGT STRATIFORM RN SPREADING INTO THE AREA
FM W-E AND TEMPS BLO FREEZING OVER MOST OF THE AREA SO EXPECT SOME
LGT FRZG RAIN TO CAUSE SOME PROBLEMS EARLY THIS MORNING. BY USING
INPPUT OBS DATA HAD TO LOWER TEMPS OVER MANY AREAS A FEW DEGS
BRINGING THEM BLO THE 32 DEG MARK. FIRST BATCH OF LGT PCPN MOVES
THRU ERLY THIS MRNG AS PER HRRR SUGGESTS AND THEN ANOTHER BATCH
LATER IN THE MRNG AND ERLY AFTN BUT BY THEM ALL SFC TEMPS TO BE
WELL ABV FRZG.

PREV DISC;
WILL UPDATE TO INCREASE CHC OF PRCP OVER WRN ZONES PER LATEST
RADAR LOOP. WILL CONT TO FCST -SHRA OVERNIGHT WITH PSBL -FZRA
OVER MORE NRN/ERN/HIGHER ELEV AREAS. ALSO ADJUSTED SKY COVER FCST
THRU THIS EVENING BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE LOOP. TREND WILL BE
FOR SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY OR CLOUDY THROUGHOUT. OTRW ANY
CHANGES JUST MINOR TWEAKS.

EXPECT A WIDE RANGE IN OVERNIGHT TEMPS DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER
WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM ABOVE FREEZING TO BELOW FREEZING. ANY
PRECIPITATION TONIGHT IS LIKELY TO BE SPOTTY...AND MAINLY ACROSS
WESTERN SECTIONS WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO BE ABOVE
FREEZING. NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS ARE LIKELY TO DROP BELOW
FREEZING TONIGHT BUT LESSER CHC OF PRCP...STILL COULD BE A SLGT
CHC TO MAYBE A CHC OF -SHRA OR -FZRA...BUT NOT ENOUGH -FZRA TO
WARRANT ANY ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME.

.SHORT TERM /NOON THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
LGT RAIN SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS WERE A BLEND OF MET/MAV
TEMPERATURES. WITH THE SURFACE LOW PASSING TO OUR SOUTH...ONSHORE
FLOW...AND EXPECTED PRECIPITATION...WENT ON THE COOL SIDE OF
GUIDANCE FRIDAY.

RAPID IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SFC RIDGING CROSSES THE CWA ON SAT BENEATH NW FLOW
ALOFT...PROVIDING A FAIR DAY WITH MILD TEMPS IN THE 50S. LARGE
HIGH AMPLITUDE 500MB RIDGING BEGINS TO DEVELOP ON SUNDAY...AND
LOCKS IN OVER ERN THIRD OF THE CONUS EARLY TO MIDDLE NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR VERY MILD TEMPS AND GENERALLY FAIR WX THROUGH
THIS PERIOD. MID LVL WAA COULD THROW SOME CLOUDS ACROSS THE CWA
LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON...BUT OTHERWISE TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE
60S MONDAY...AND INTO THE 70S TUE AND WED...ESPECIALLY INLAND...AS
SEA BREEZE LOOKS TO DEVELOP...KEEPING THE COAST COOLER. STILL...WE
ARE POTENTIALLY LOOKING AT SEVERAL DAYS /SUN-WED/ WHERE TEMPS WILL
RUN 15-25F ABV NORMAL.

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...VFR TO MVFR CIG AND
UNRESTRICTED VSBY AT THIS TIME SHOULD BE LOWERING OVERNIGHT WITH
LGT PRCP ARRIVING LATE TNGT INTO FRIDAY WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING
IFR AND PERHAPS LIFR IN SOME AREAS. MOST PRCP WILL FALL AS -SHRA
THOUGH MORE NRN/ERN/HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS COULD SEE SOME -FZRA.
LINGERING AREAS OF MVFR FRIDAY NIGHT IN FOG.

LONG TERM...EXTENDED PERIOD OF VFR SAT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...WILL UPDATE TO
INPUT LATEST OBSERVED DATA RESULTING IN MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
PREVIOUS FCST. STILL WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY BELOW SCA LEVELS
THRU THE SHORT TERM.

LONG TERM...NO FLAGS ANTICIPATED...ALTHOUGH SW FLOW COULD GUST TO
20 KTS OR SO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MEZ007-
012-019.
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
MEZ008-009-013-014-020>022.
NH...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NHZ001-
002-004.
MARINE...NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WAKEFIELD VA

223 AM EDT FRI MAR 16 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL IMPACT THE AREA WITH THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES SUNDAY.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTS A SIGNIFICANT FRONTAL BNDRY ACRS THE
EASTERN SHORE...IT APPEARS TO HAVE STOPPED ITS MOVEMENT SW (AS A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT)...AND IS NOW BEGINNING TO SLOWLY RETREAT BACK
TO THE NE. EARLIER SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE NOW JUST ABOUT COMPLETELY
GONE W/ THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE MD ERN SHORE
ALONG THE BOUNDARY. HAVE DROPPED POPS MOST AREAS AND KEPT LOW CHC
POPS GOING ON THE EASTERN SHORE AND IN FAR SE VA THOUGH MIDNIGHT.
ONLY OTHER PRECIP ISSUE WILL BE FROM MULTIPLE MCS CLUSTERS W OF
THE MTNS. MODELS ARE NOT DOING A VERY GOOD JOB CURRENTLY SO
CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW IN THEIR ABILITY TO FCST THE PRECIP
CHANCES OVERNIGHT. OVERALL THE RUC SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE
ON CURRENT CONDITIONS AND WILL FOLLOW ITS SOLUTION TO SOME EXTENT.
BASED ON RADAR TRENDS...IF MCS`S DO HOLD TOGETHER...PRECIP WOULD
LIKELY NOT MAKE IT TO AKQ CWA UNTIL AFTER 08Z-09Z. HAVE A 20% POP
ALL ZONES AFTER 08Z TO HANDLE THIS. DESPITE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MSTR...LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH WIND/MIXING TO INHIBIT FOG DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT (ALTHOUGH SHALLOW/PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESP IN
PLACES THAT RECEIVED RAIN).

TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY CONTINUE TO SHOW A LOT OF VARIABILITY...GENLY
IN THE 60S TO LWR 70S IN VA/NE NC...WITH UPPER 40S AT OXB AND IN
THE 50S OVER THE REST OF THE ERN SHORE. LOWS LOOK TO RANGE FROM
THE UPR 40S COASTAL MD...TO UPR 50S/AROUND 60 OVER SE VA/NE NC
(TEMPS ON THE ERN SHORE WILL BE STEADY OR MAY RISE SLIGHTLY AS THE
BOUNDARY LIFTS BACK N).

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY: A SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVES AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL
RESULT IN MORE PCPN FRIDAY. THE ENTIRE AREA WILL HAVE AT LEAST 40
PERCENT POPS FRIDAY. THE BEST INSTABILITY AND GREATEST MOISTURE
WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN PORTION AND INCLUDED LIKELY POPS GENERALLY
SOUTH OF I-64 BUT CUTTING BUT DID NOT INCLUDE THE IMMEDIATE COAST
OR ALBEMARLE SOUND AREA WHERE COOL WATER LIMIT THE INSTABILITY. A
CLOUD COVER AND PCPN WILL HOLD DOWN TEMPERATURES SOME WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 80S EXCEPT IN THE 70S ON THE LOWER EASTERN
SHORE.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY: DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO FILTER INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AND PCPN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH OVER NORTHERN
PORTIONS. SLIGHT CHC TO CHC WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA WITH TSTMS ALSO POSSIBLE OVER INLAND AREAS.
EASTERLY WINDS WILL HOLD DOWN TEMPERATURES OVER EASTERN PORTIONS ON
SATURDAY. LOW FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 50S. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE 60S OVER THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST RANGING TO THE UPPER 70S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT COUNTIES.

SUNDAY: UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH A WEAK
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTION FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS BOTH SUNDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RUN IN THE 70S EXCEPT 60S ALONG THE
COAST AND LOWER EASTERN SHORE. LOWS WILL BE A BIT COOLER WITH
READINGS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ANCHORED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK. SOME MOISTURE ROTATING
CLOCKWISE AROUND THE HIGH COULD OCCASIONALLY STREAM INTO THE
REGION BUT SHOULD ONLY RESULT IN SOME CLOUDINESS RATHER THAN
PRECIPITATION. OVERALL...A DRYING AND WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED
FOR INLAND AREAS WHILE COASTAL LOCATIONS SHOULD RUN ABOUT 5 TO 10
DEGREES COOLER DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW.

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A RATHER CHALLENGING FORECAST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
AS UNSETTLED CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC.
AS OF 06Z...A SHALLOW FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS DRAPED ROUGHLY ALONG
THE VA/MD BORDER. NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...MARINE STRATUS HAS
OVERSPREAD SBY WHERE CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AOB 200FT AND VSBY
SHOULD BE AROUND 1SM OR LESS THROUGH 12Z...BEFORE CONDITIONS
GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH 15Z. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL SOUTH
OF THE BOUNDARY...ALTHOUGH A BRIEF SHOWER IS POSSIBLE AT ANY
TERMINAL.

THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD LIFT TO THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED WEAK LOW PRESSURE DROP
IN FROM THE NW. THIS SHOULD TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. CONDITIONS
SHOULD MAINLY BE VFR...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF REDUCED FLIGHT
CRITERIA IN ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THRU THE REGION FROM THE NORTH LATE
FRI/EARLY SAT WITH A CHC FOR SHOWERS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS.

.MARINE...
A SURFACE BOUNDARY IS PRESENTLY SITUATED ROUGHLY ALONG THE POTOMAC
ACROSS THE CHESAPEAKE BAY (NEAR THE VA/MD BORDER) AND OFF THE
COAST AROUND CHINCOTEAGUE. THIS IS A FARTHER SOUTHWARD ADVANCEMENT
THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED HENCE THERE IS MUCH LESS OF A SOUTHERLY
SURGE OVER THE BAY. GIVEN THIS...THE SCA FLAG HAS BEEN LOWERED AS
SPEEDS SHOULD PRIMARILY BE AOB 15KT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW
20KT GUSTS AT ELEVATED SENSORS.

ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL BE A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND
AVERAGE 10-15 KT WITH STRONGER GUSTS POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
SEAS SHOULD PRIMARILY BE 2-3 FT...ALTHOUGH NORTHERN AREAS OUT NEAR
20NM COULD EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF 4 FT SEAS WITH THE SOUTHERLY SURGE
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST...THEN EAST...AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY SETTLES SOUTH OF THE
REGION SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES DOWN ALONG
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THIS HIGH DRIFTS SOUTHWARD AND BECOMES
ANCHORED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY THROUGH LATE NEXT
WEEK...CREATING RELATIVELY BENIGN CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.

.CLIMATE...
SEVERAL RECORD HIGHS HAVE BEEN SET TODAY...RIC HIT 86/ ORF HIT
87...SBY HIT 80 AND ECG HIT 86. SEE RER`S FOR DETAILS.

(PREVIOUS) RECORD HIGH TEMPS THURS (3/15) AND FRI (3/16)

3/15 3/16
RIC 82/2007 85/1945
ORF 84/1973 84/1945
SBY 80/1990 83/1945
ECG 86/1973 87/1945

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...LSA
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LSA
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...AJZ/BMD
CLIMATE...AKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI

740 PM EDT SAT MAR 17 2012

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 EDT SAT MAR 17 2012

THE PRIMARY STORY IS THE CONTINUED RECORD WARMTH ON BOTH THE HIGH
AND LOW TEMPERATURES. THE OTHER SIGNIFICANT ISSUE IS THE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS (NON SEVERE) WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA DURING
THE MORNING HOURS OF SUNDAY. SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY NIGHT DUE TO HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE AIR AND WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT AT NIGHT.

A SHORTWAVE OVER MISSOURI IS HEADING NORTHEAST AND BASED ON OUR
TIMING TOOL... SHOULD BRING CONVECTION INTO SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS WOULD IMPACT AREAS NEAR AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 96 THE MOST. THE SHOWALTER INDEX FALLS TO -4 TO -5C
BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 8 AM AS THIS SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA.
THE TQ INDEX RISES TO AROUND 20C (15C IS GOOD ENOUGH FOR
THUNDERSTORMS). SINCE THERE IS NOT A SURFACE FRONT TO WORK WITH
AND THERE WILL NOT BE A LAKE BREEZE THEN EITHER... THERE IS NOT A
GOOD FOCUS FOR THE CONVECTION EXPECT FOR ANY OUTFLOW FROM THE
STORMS ALREADY ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTION HEADING THIS WAY.
THUS I HAVE LOW CHANCE POP AFTER MIDNIGHT. I PLAYED IT UP A LITTLE
MORE OVER THE SOUTHERN 1/3 OF THE CWA DURING THE MID DAY HOURS OF
SUNDAY AS THERE WILL BE BETTER SURFACE INSTABILITY THEN.

ONCE THE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE FOR SOME CLEARING TOMORROW NIGHT. COULD LEAD
TO A BETTER SET UP FOR FOG (LESS CLOUDS). HOWEVER... THERE IS 20
KNOTS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER SO THAT MAY MITIGATE THE FOG BECOMING TO
EXTENSIVE EVEN SO.

RECORD HIGH LOWS FOR THE 18TH FOR GRAND RAPIDS AND LANSING ARE 41
DEGREES FOR SUNDAY... 46 AT MUSKEGON. LITTLE QUESTION THAT RECORD
WILL BE BROKEN. MONDAY MORNING GRAND RAPIDS HAS 47 DEGREES...
LANSING 54 DEGREES AND MUSKEGON 59 DEGREES. SEEMS SOME OF THOSE
RECORDS COULD BE BROKEN TOO.

THE 1000-925 MB THICKNESS TOOL... MY ALL TIME FAVORITE (STILL)
FOR FORECASTING HIGH TEMPERATURES (80 PCT OF TIME WITHIN 3
DEGREES 24 HOURS OUT) SUGGEST MID TO UPPER 70S SUNDAY. SO RECORDS
ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN THERE TOO. THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW QUICKLY THE
SUN CAN COME OUT IN THE AFTERNOON AFTER THE SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF
THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 EDT SAT MAR 17 2012

THE BIG STORY FOR NEXT WEEK WILL BE THE EVOLUTION OF A NORTHERN
STREAM LOW THAT SPLITS WITH THE SRN SYSTEM EVENTUALLY BECOMING
DOMINANT PRODUCING PCPN HERE TOWARD THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK.

WARM TO HOT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS STRONG SRLY
FLOW PUSHES H8 TEMPS TO AROUND 14C UNDER A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK DRY AS DOES MUCH OF WEDNESDAY. AS THE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS DEEPENS VARIOUS SHORT WAVES WILL ROTATE
AROUND THE LOW AND LIKELY DEVELOP CONVECTION THAT MOVES NNE. SOME OF
THIS CONVECTION WILL MAKE A RUN AT THE CWA LATE WEDNESDAY AS THE SFC
LOW OVER MISSOURI STRENGTHENS. CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE THURSDAY AS THE SFC AND UPPER LOWS MOVE TOWARD THE CWA.
WE/LL ALSO SEE SFC TEMPS BEGIN TO DECLINE DUE TO CLOUDS AND PCPN. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY AND THAT WILL DIMINISH PCPN
CHANCES. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE MUCH COLDER IN THE MID 50S...BUT STILL
ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPS ON THE ECMWF ARE MUCH COLDER THAN THE GFS BUT
MORE IN LINE WITH WHAT WOULD BE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 740 PM EDT SAT MAR 17 2012

IT IS DOUBTFUL WHETHER ANY OF THE TSRA ACTIVITY SOUTH OF CHICAGO
WILL MAKE IT INTO SW LWR MI TONIGHT. HAVE KEPT SKIES SCATTERED FOR THE
CIRRUS THAT WILL BE BLOWING IN OFF THE TSRA TOPS. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR HI-RES MODEL DATA FOR THIS COMPLEX OF STORMS...BUT
EXPECTING ACTIVITY TO BE CALMING DOWN A BIT AFTER SUNSET. LATEST
HRRR RUC DOES NOT BRING APPRECIABLE PRECIPITATION INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT.

FOCUS REMAINS ON FOG POTENTIAL DURING SUNDAY MORNING. NUMEROUS
MODEL GUIDANCE IS QUITE PESSIMISTIC FOR FG DEVELOPMENT ALMOST
AREA-WIDE DURING OUR TYPICAL EARLY-MID MORNING SETUP.
HOWEVER...AM NOT TOTALLY BUYING INTO THIS YET. THE TEMP/DEW POINT
DIFFERENTIAL IS NOT LESS THAN 4 OR 5 DEGREES OVERNIGHT EXCEPT AT
MKG AND PERHAPS GRR. ALSO...WITH A LIGHT AND STEADY SOUTHERLY BREEZE
OVERNIGHT AND INCREASING CIRRUS/CIRROSTRATUS...WILL LEAN FOR A
COMPROMISE SOLUTION OF BORDERLINE IFR FOR THE SITES AS VISBYS WILL
LIKELY BE GOING DOWN TO 2 OR 3 SM. IF GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
INDICATE 1/4 SM WITH FG THEN WE MAY NEED TO BE MORE AGGRESSIVE
WITH LOWERING OUR MORNING CIGS/VISBYS.

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 350 EDT SAT MAR 17 2012

LOOKING AT WEB CAMS... ALREADY A FEW BRAVES SOULS ARE WADING INTO
THE NEAR SHORE WATERS (2:30 PM HOLLAND...GRAND HAVEN AND MUSKEGON).
WAVES LOOK LIKE THEY ARE LESS THAN 2 FEET. I SEE NO REASON WE
SHOULD HAVE TO MANY ISSUES WITH WAVE HEIGHT OR WINDS THROUGH
MONDAY (WARM AIR OVER COLD WATER). SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE DUE TO
MOIST AIR OVER THE COLD WATER (COAST WATCH SHOWS WATER TEMPS IN
THE MID 40S OFF SHORE). ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT... BUT THOSE SHOULD BE OFF THE LAKE BY MID MORNING SUNDAY.

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 350 EDT SAT MAR 17 2012

THERE REMAIN FOUR RIVER ADVISORIES THIS AFTERNOON...MUSKEGON
RIVER AT EVERT...MUSKEGON RIVER AT CROUTON...GRAND RIVER AND
IONIA...AND THE MAPLE RIVER AND MAPLE RAPIDS. ANY ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL WHILE HEAVY WILL BE VERY LOCALIZED AND SHOULD NOT
SIGINFICANTLY IMPACT THE RIVER LEVELS BUT COULD CAUSE LOCAL FLOOD
ISSUES.

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 350 EDT SAT MAR 17 2012

BELOW ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR OUR THREE OFFICIAL
CLIMATE SITES THROUGH THE 22ND. IT STILL APPEARS THAT A GOOD
MAJORITY OF THESE RECORDS WILL BE BROKEN IN THIS UNUSUALLY WARM
PERIOD FOR MID MARCH. IT IS STILL POSSIBLE THE ALL RECORD HIGHS
FOR MARCH COULD BE BROKEN THIS COMING WEEK.

GRAND RAPIDS

3/18 75 IN 1903
3/19 75 IN 1921
3/20 74 IN 1921
3/21 76 IN 1938
3/22 82 IN 1938

MUSKEGON

3/18 69 IN 1903
3/19 70 IN 1903
3/20 73 IN 1903
3/21 72 IN 1953
3/22 68 IN 1979

LANSING

3/18 75 IN 1894
3/19 76 IN 1921
3/20 75 IN 1921
3/21 73 IN 1918
3/22 81 IN 1938

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...WDM
SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...HOVING
MARINE...WDM
HYDROLOGY...WDM
CLIMATE...WDM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

732 PM EDT SAT MAR 17 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 428 PM EDT SAT MAR 17 2012
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NEAR
THE WEST COAST AND A BROAD DOWNSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE CNTRL AND ERN
CONUS RESULTING IN SW FLOW INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. AT THE
SFC...SRLY FLOW AHEAD OF A TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS HAS BROUGHT GULF
MOISTURE AND RECORD BREAKING WARM AIR FROM THE PLAINS AND MS VALLEY
INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES AND NRN ONTARIO. DESPITE CAPE VALUES INTO
TO AROUND 2K J/KG...ENOUGH CAPPING PREVAILED OVER THE CWA...PER 12Z
KMPX SOUNDING TO PREVENT TSRA DEVELOPMENT OVER THE CWA.
HOWEVER...CONVECTION HAD DEVELOPED ABOVE THE MARINE LAYER NEAR THE
STRAITS...WHERE THE CAP WAS WEAKER.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 428 PM EDT SAT MAR 17 2012

TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...UNSEASONABLY WARM AND MOIST CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE
ALONG WITH RELATIVELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES FROM 7.5C-8.5C/KM.
THIS INSTABILITY WOULD BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT KEEPING SLIGHT CHC POPS
FOR TSRA POTENTIAL OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER...ANY SHORTWAVES LIFTING
INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES ARE EXPECTED TO BE WEAK AND THE GREATEST
ISENTROPIC LIFT NEAR THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET 850 MB WARM FRONT
AND WEAKER CAPPING SHOULD REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF THE CWA...PER
MODEL DATA. WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS...EXPECT MORE FOG/STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN AND AREAS WITH UPSLOPE
SRLY FLOW. RECORD HIGH MINIMUM VALUES ARE EXPECTED WITH LOWS ONLY
DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 50S AT MOST LOCATIONS.

STRONG SRLY FLOW AND WAA WILL PUSH 850 MB TEMPS INTO THE 12C TO 14C
RANGE. SO...WITH SUNSHINE AND DECENT MIXING...EXPECT HIGH TEMPS
AGAIN WELL INTO 70S ACROSS THE W HALF OF UPPER MI AND PERHAPS EVEN
LOWER 80S AT SOME SPOTS. TEMPS WILL REMAIN SUBSTANTIALLY LOWER
DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN WHERE READINGS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 50S
ALONG THE SHORE TO LOWER 60S WELL INLAND.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 428 PM EDT SAT MAR 17 2012

WHAT GOES UP /OUR STRETCH OF UNSEASONABLE WARM TEMPERATURES/ MUST
GO DOWN...EVENTUALLY...BUT THE MAIN QUESTION IS THE DEGREE IT WILL
GO DOWN. DEEP TROUGH OVER FAR WESTERN CONUS IS FCST TO COME EAST
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. GOOD AGREEMENT IN OVERALL SCENARIO THROUGH
ROUGHLY MID WEEK...THEN MODEL DIFFERENCES START CREEPING INTO THE
PICTURE BY LATE WEEK/NEXT WEEKEND. MAIN ISSUE AT THAT TIME IS HOW
MUCH TROUGHING/COLD AIR WILL BE OVER THE UPR LAKES FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. MODELS EARLIER THIS WEEK SHOWED MAIN TROUGH SPLITTING INTO
TWO...WITH MORE OF A CUTOFF LOW OVER SOUTHERN PLAINS MEANDERING
ACROSS CNTRL CONUS...BUT MAINLY REMAINING SOUTH OF UPR LAKES. MORE
RECENT MODEL RUNS SHOWED MORE PHASING BTWN THE TWO TROUGHS OVR THE
UPR LAKES BY LATE WEEK. LATELY THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE
INDICATING MORE SPLIT PATTERN AGAIN. ECMWF IS THE ONLY MODEL SHOWING
MORE OF A PHASED LOOK WHILE ECMWF ENSEMBLES DEVELOP TROUGH FARTHER
EAST...ALLOWING HEIGHTS TO REBOUND OVR UPR LAKES AS QUICKLY AS NEXT
SATURDAY.

INITIALLY TO START THE LONGER RANGE WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW
REGIME WILL BE IN FULL SWING SOUTH OF WARM FRONT. NOT A WHOLE LOT OF
LARGER SCALE FEATURES TO PIN POPS TO SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. LOOKS
LIKE THERE ARE A FEW AREAS OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT FLOWING INTO THE UPR
LAKES THAT MAY TRIGGER CONVECTION IN THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT. BETTER
CHANCE WOULD BE OVER WEST AND NORTHWEST CWA. NOTHING MORE THAN
SLIGHT CHANCES THOUGH GIVEN LACK OF SUPPORT FM SHORTWAVES AND UPR
JET SUPPORT. THUNDER CHANCES SEEM PRETTY REMOTE AS H7-H5 LAPSE
RATES ARE DECREASING WITH ARRIVAL OF WARM AIR ALOFT. SI/S START OUT
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY A BIT BLO 0C BUT BY LATER MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT STABILITY ONLY INCREASES.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK
WITH MORE RECORD HIGHS EXPECTED. COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED BY
LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS PLAINS TROUGH SLIDES INTO CNTRL
CONUS. GREATEST CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE WEEK OCCURS WEDNESDAY AS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AHEAD OF TROUGH/POOLING MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT
AND RIGHT ENTRANCE FORCING FM UPR JET CONGEAL OVR UPR LAKES. DESPITE
ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH /PWATS OVR 300 PCT OF NORMAL/
NOT SURE THAT WILL EQUATE TO WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN OVR THE CWA.
WHERE IT DOES RAIN...IT COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES THOUGH. FOR NOW HAVE
HIGHEST POPS ON WEDNESDAY OVER THE NORTHERN CWA CLOSER TO INFLUENCE
OF UPR JET OVR ONTARIO. EVENTUALLY THOUGH POPS MAY NEED TO BE PUSHED
INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY OVR MUCH OF CWA.

EXTENT OF TROUGHING/COOLING STILL IN QUESTION FOR LATE WEEK AND NEXT
WEEKEND. ECMWF CONTINUES ITS TREND OF SHARPER TROUGHING AND COOLER
TEMPS /H85 TEMPS BLO -5C/ WHICH WOULD RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS THAN
CURRENT FCST SHOWS AND TEMPS COOLING INTO THE 30S. CHANCES OF PCPN
APPEAR LOW THOUGH AS ALTHOUGH IT WOULD BE COOL IT LOOKS FAIRLY DRY
AS WELL. GIVEN LACK OF CONSISTENCY IN MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE NOT
STRAYED TOO FAR FM CONSENSUS AT THIS POINT.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 731 PM EDT SAT MAR 17 2012

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT KIWD AND KCMX OVERNIGHT WITH LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG RETURNING TO KSAW BY 3Z AS SSE WINDS PRODUCE WEAK UPSLOPE THERE.
ALTHOUGH LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AVAILABLE AT KCMX AND KIWD...
DOWNSLOPE WINDS TO INHIBIT FOG FORMATION THERE. HAVE INCLUDED
MENTION OF MVFR VSBYS AT THOSE TWO SITES THOUGH AS CANNOT DISCOUNT
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME PATCHY LIGHT FOG DEVELOPING...ESPECIALLY AT
KCMX WITH LINGERING SNOWPACK THERE. FOG/STRATUS AT KSAW SHOULD LIFT
BY AROUND 14Z SUNDAY MORNING. LLWS WILL BE PRESENT AT ALL SITES
OVERNIGHT AND MAY OCCUR ONCE AGAIN JUST BEYOND THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 428 PM EDT SAT MAR 17 2012
EXPECT GENERALLY S-SE WINDS LESS THAN 25 KTS INTO NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES OVER THE UPR GREAT LAKES REGION. UNSEASONABLY
WARM AIR OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL ALSO RESULT IN PERSISTENT
MARINE LAYER/STRONG STABILITY OVER THE LAKE. WITH THE UNSEASONABLY
HIGH DEWPOINTS MOVING INTO THE AREA...AREAS OF FOG WILL ALSO
CONTINUE OVER THE AREA WITH LCLY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...JLB
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...RJT
MARINE...JLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 06Z TAFS

NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

1005 PM CDT SAT MAR 17 2012

.DISCUSSION...ISSUED 335 PM CDT

LARGE CU AND LEFT OVER STRATUS FILED STILL WITH US LATE THIS
AFTERNOON BUT THINNING OUT IN THE WEST..ESPECIALLY LEE OF THE
BUFFALO RIDGE INTO THE UPPER MN RIVER VALLEY. WE ARE GENERALLY IN
A BROAD WARM SECTOR WITH PLENTY OF ML CAPE BUT THE GREATER 0-3KM
CAPE IS WELL OFF TO THE EAST ON WI. ANY DEFINED SURFACE BOUNDARIES
ARE IN FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND IN THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS NEAR THE
PSEUDO DRY LINE. LATEST AIRCRAFT SOUNDING OUT OF KMSP STILL
SHOWING A DECENT INVERSION. LOOKS LIKE A SIMILAR SITUATION TONIGHT FOR
REDEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. LATEST RUC PROFILES AND
THE 12Z NAM SHOWING THIS TREND AND SEEMS REASONABLE BASED ON CU
FIELD ITO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WE MAY SEE A PERIOD OF SKC HERE AND
THERE BEFORE REDEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
NO TRIGGERS OR SIGNIFICANT ADVECTIVE FIELDS UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT
WHEN BOTH THE EC AND NAM SHOW A WEAK WAVE MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE PLAINS. LOTS OF ML CIN OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY AS WELL. IT
LOOKS WEAK AT THIS POINT SO WILL CONTINUE THE SLIGHT CHANCE OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA LATER SUNDAY NIGHT.

THE MAIN PUSH OF FORCING AND HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER OUT OF THE
LONG WEAVE TROUGH WILL BE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. BOTH THE NAM AND
GFS ARE FORECASTING PWAT VALUES CLOSE TO 1.2 INCHES WHICH WOULD BE
AT "RECORD LEVELS" BASED ON THE CLIMATOLOGY STUDY OF CONUS RAOB
SITES. QUITE A MERIDIONAL UPPER FLOW AS THIS WAVE MOVES OUT...WITH
DECREASED SHEAR. SEVERE CHANCES STILL IN QUESTION BUT CANT RULE
OUT A FEW STRONG STORMS BEFORE THE MORE SATURATED CONDITIONS
DEVELOP. WILL UP POPS IN A FEW AREAS..ESPECIALLY WEST INITIALLY
WITH HIGHER POPS CONTINUING EAST INTO TUESDAY.

CUTTING OFF OF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LOOKS
REASONABLE MID WEEK WHICH COULD CUT OF THE LINGERING LOWER POPS
THAT WE HAVE LATER IN THE WEEK. THE EC LOOKS TO BE MORE CUT OFF
THAN THE GFS.

.AVIATION.../06Z TAF ISSUANCE/

MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS AREA THRU THE TAF PERIOD
BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE TROF IN THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS AND HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. EXCEPTIONALY HIGH DEWPOINTS FOR
MID MARCH WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THRU TAF PERIOD WHICH SHUD
AGAIN RESULT IN STRATUS DVLPG IN THE LATE OVERNITE HOURS...IN
SIMILAR FASHION AS LAST NITE. VSBYS MAY DROP INTO THE 2-4SM RANGE
LATE TONIGHT...BUT SHUD BE ENUF WIND TO KEEP THEM FROM DROPPING ANY
LOWER THAN THAT. CIGS IMPRVG TO VFR ARND 17Z.

KMSP...MAY SEE SOME FOG/HAZE DEVELOP TOWARD DAWN WITH MORE MVFR
STRATUS/CUMULUS ALSO DEVELOPING. CEILING LIFTING THROUGH 3-5K FEET
AND BECOMING SCT-SKC BY EVENING. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WIND WILL
INCREASE AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING AND BECOMING GUSTY FOR THE AFTERNOON.

/OUTLOOK...MON THROUGH THURSDAY...
.MON-TUE...IFR/MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE. SHRA/TSRA LIKELY WITH SLOW FROPA.
.WED-THU...VFR.

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

JPR/BAP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

610 PM CDT SAT MAR 17 2012

.UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

.DISCUSSION...

.AVIATION.../00Z TAF ISSUANCE/

CUMULUS FIELD DISSIPATING THIS EVENING ALONG WITH DECREASING
WINDS. THIS WILL MEAN VFR CONDS MUCH OF THE NIGHT. MIGHT BEGIN TO
SEE MVFR VSBYS IN FOG DEVELOP LATE WITH MORE STRATUS DEVELOPING IN
THE 10Z-14Z PERIOD. IFR/MVFR LIFTING TO VFR CONDITIONS INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS MIXING TAKES HOLD ONCE AGAIN. MAY SEE LESS OF A
CUMULUS FIELD INTO THE AFTERNOON AS WELL. SHOULD GO SCT-SKC INTO
SUNDAY EVENING MOST AREAS WITH MORE LAYERED CLOUDS POSSIBLE AFTER
06Z MON AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHEAST/SOUTH
AND INCREASE AFTER 14Z SUNDAY AND BECOME GUSTY MOST AREAS BY 18Z OR
SO.

KMSP...LEFTOVER CUMULUS DISSIPATING NEXT HOUR OR SO...WITH SKC INTO
THE EARLY MORNING. MAY SEE SOME FOG/HAZE DEVELOP TOWARD DAWN WITH
MORE STRATUS/CUMULUS DEVELOPING THEREAFTER. MAY GO BRIEFLY MVFR
AGAIN LIGHT THIS MORNING...WITH CEILING LIFTING THROUGH 4-5K FEET
AND BECOMING SCT-SKC BY EVENING. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WIND WILL
INCREASE AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING AND BECOMING GUSTY FOR THE AFTERNOON.

/OUTLOOK...MON THROUGH THURSDAY...
.MON-TUE...IFR/MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE. SHRA/TSRA LIKELY WITH SLOW FROPA.
.WED-THU...VFR.

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

JPR/DE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

333 PM CDT FRI MAR 16 2012

.DISCUSSION...

WARM FRONT GENERALLY BISECTING THE CWA IN HALF ON AN EAST-WEST
LINE. CU FIELD WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 55 TO 60 RANGE HAS ALSO PUSHED
INTO SOUTHERN MN. MIXED LAYER CAPE AROUND 2500 J/KG OVER NORTHEAST
IA INTO SOUTHEAST MN WITH VERY LITTLE CIN. 850 MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT DIRECTED MAINLY TOWARD WI AT THIS TIME. A WEAK WAVE
INDICATED IN WV IMAGERY MOVING ENE ACROSS NEB MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH
LIFT FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TSTM OVER SE MN. CURRENTLY A FEW
CELLS OVER SE WI. WILL DECIDE AT THE LAST MINUTE TO INCLUDE A
MENTION IN WEST CENTRAL WI FOR THE EVENING. OTHERWISE...THIS
MAYBE THE ONLY CHANCE UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...OR MORE LIKELY
MONDAY BEFORE WE GET A TRIGGER FOR ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT. THE LOW
LEVEL BOUNDARY WILL HAVE RETREATED INTO NORTHERN MN SO MOST OF
OUR AREA WILL BE IN A WARM SECTOR WITH MAINLY A THICKNESS RIDGE
EXTENDING OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS.

THE OTHER CONCERN TONIGHT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS DEVELOPMENT
LATER.. THERE WAS A LARGE AREA OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG OVER KANSAS
AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA THIS MORNING AND WITH THE CONTINUED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT...WE SHOULD SEE SOME OF SAME OVER PARTS
OF THE AREA INTO MID MORNING SATURDAY. MAX TEMPS MIGHT BE A COUPLE
DEGREES DOWN IN A FEW SPOTS BUT NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM TODAY. IN
FACT...WE SHOULD SEE SIMILAR TEMPS ON SUNDAY AS WELL.

THERE IS REASONABLE AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF OF AN
IMPULSE MOVING NNW OUT OF THE LONG WAVE TROF POSITION FOR MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD GIVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO TUESDAY. IT LOOKS LIKE A LONG
FETCH OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND THE GEFS IS SHOWING A RATHER LARGE
AREA OF PRECIPITABLE WATER ANOMALIES OF AT LEAST 3 SD ABOVE NORMAL
FROM SOUTHERN CANADA INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON MONDAY. SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL IN QUESTION WITH NOT MUCH DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. THE
BETTER POTENTIAL WOULD BE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AS THE NOSE OF
THE STRONGER UPPER JET EMERGES.

.AVIATION.../18Z TAF ISSUANCE/

WARM FRONT BASICALLY ALONG I-94 NOW WILL CONTINUE LIFTING NORTH
THIS AFTERNOON. FAIRLY MOIST/UNSTABLE AND RELATIVELY UNCAPPED
ENVIRONMENT LIFTING NORTH OUT OF IOWA BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS WOULD
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR TSRA ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THE LACK OF A TRIGGER /SFC OR ALOFT/ PRECLUDED ANY SORT
OF CB OR THUNDER MENTION IN ANY OF THE TAFS. LOOKING AT H85
MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE...WRN WI
TERMINALS WOULD BE MOST AT RISK FOR AN ISO TSRA THIS AFTERNOON.
THERE IS AN AREA OF MORE ACCUS TYPE CLOUD COVER NEAR CEDAR
RAPIDS...THAT BASED ON THE LOCAL WRF AND HRRR REFLECTIVITY COULD
BE A SOURCE FOR ANY CONVECTION TODAY...SO WILL MONITOR CLOSELY.
FOR TONIGHT...THE BIG ISSUE WILL BE EXPECTED FOG/STRATUS. NAM
REVERSE TRAJECTORY FROM MSP SHOWED LOW LEVEL AIR SAT MORNING
ORIGINATING FROM ERN KS THIS MORNING...WHERE LIFR STRATUS WITH IFR
VIS WAS COMMON. EXPECT THIS TO BE THE CASE HERE SAT MORNING. GIVEN
THE STRONG GRADIENT EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE
NIGHT...SHOULD SEE 5-10KT SE WINDS THAT WILL KEEP THE THREAT MORE
OF A STRATUS ONE TONIGHT...AS WAS SEEN IN ERN KS THIS MORNING.
TIMED THE CLOUDS IN OFF THE NMM/ARW HI RES FORECASTS...WHICH
BRINGS STRATUS UP OUT OF IA AFTER 06Z. IF THIS SCENARIO WORKS
OUT...RWF/MSP/EAU WOULD BE THE FIRST TO EXPERIENCE THE
STRATUS...WITH IT NOT GETTING UP TO AXN/STC UNTIL CLOSER TO 12Z.
ASSUMING CLOUDS ARE IN PLACE...WILL TAKE MOST OF THE MORNING TO
GET BACK TO SCT/SKC CONDITIONS.

KMSP...BEGINNING TO SEE CU FORM NOW...THOUGH NOT EXPECTING MUCH
MORE THAN SCT AT 050. MAY SEE ISOLD TSRA DEVELOP LATER THIS
AFTERNOON FROM SE MN INTO WRN WI...BUT ANY ACTIVITY WOULD LIKELY
REMAIN EAST OF THE FIELD. LOW LEVEL RH CERTAINLY LOOKS TO BE HIGH
ENOUGH FOR FOG/STRATUS TONIGHT...THOUGH THERE HAS BEEN A TENDENCY
THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS FOR MODELS TO OVER DO THINGS. GIVEN LOW
LEVEL MIXING...NOT EXPECTING DENSE FG LIKE THE GFSLAMP HAS...BUT
GFSLAMP TIMING FOR FG MAY NOT BE BAD FOR WHEN ANY POTENTIAL
STRATUS WILL ARRIVE. ASSUMING WE GET THE STRATUS...COULD TAKE A
WHILE TO CLEAN IT OUT...AS EVEN AT 18Z...A LARGE BATCH OF 010-015
CIGS STILL REMAINS ACROSS ERN KS. WINDS WILL REMAIN BTWN 180 AND
140 THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH GUSTS OVER 20KTS LIKELY SAT
AFTERNOON AS PRESSURE GRADIENT SLOWLY STRENGTHENS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

//OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SUN...VFR.
.MON THRU TUE...CHC SHRA/TSRA AS FRONT SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH.
.WED...VFR.

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

JPR/MPG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

136 PM CDT FRI MAR 16 2012

.UPDATE...

18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION ADDED BELOW.

.DISCUSSION...
MORE RECORD MAX TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BY THE WAYSIDE
TODAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND AS UNPRECEDENTED MARCH HEAT WAVE
CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK. AVERAGE TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS WILL BE ABOUT 25 TO 35 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD DURING THE PERIOD...AS
SURFACE DEWPOINTS SURGE INTO THE 50S.

THE LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL...SHOWED A VERY WAVY PATTERN IN THE MID
LEVEL AND HINT AT 500 MB TOO. SATELLITE IMAGERY OFF THE IR LOOP
SHOWED SOME CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. MODELS SHOWED SOME
INSTABILITY OVER EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WISCONSIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
BY MID AFTERNOON...INHIBITION IS WEAK OVER THIS AREA. ANY UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE ASSOCIATED WITH LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER WESTERN U.S.
COULD TRIGGER SOME WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS...WILL DEEPEN OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S...FOCUSING
ANY SHORT WAVE ENERGY OVER THE ROCKIES AND WESTERN PLAINS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE AS THE UPPER TROUGH STARTS TO MOVE EAST INTO THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR WITH MAXS IN THE 60S AND 70S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S.

.AVIATION.../18Z TAF ISSUANCE/

//OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SUN...VFR.
.MON THRU TUE...CHC SHRA/TSRA AS FRONT SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH.
.WED...VFR.

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

JVM/MPG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

205 AM CDT FRI MAR 16 2012

THE LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL...SHOWED A VERY WAVY PATTERN IN THE MID
LEVEL AND HINT AT 500 MB TOO. SATELLITE IMAGERY OFF THE IR LOOP
SHOWED SOME CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. MODELS SHOWED SOME
INSTABLITY OVER EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WISCONSIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
BY MID AFTERNOON...INHIBITION IS WEAK OVER THIS AREA. ANY UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE ASSOCIATED WITH LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER WESTERN U.S.
COULD TRIGGER SOME WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS...WILL DEEPEN OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S...FOCUSING
ANY SHORT WAVE ENERGY OVER THE ROCKIES AND WESTERN PLAINS.

.AVIATION.../06Z TAF ISSUANCE/

VERY DRY SURFACE DEWPONTS CONTINUE TO ADVECT INTO THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST TO
EAST WIND. THIS MAY LIMIT EXTENT/DEVELOPMENT OF FOG OVER NORTHERN
TAF SITES. HIGHER DEWPOINTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN BORDER AND SHOULD
SEE SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT THERE. THIS MAY AFFECT KRWF AND KEAU AND
TO A LESSER DEGREE KRNH/KMSP. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR DEWPOINT
TRENDS...THOUGH THE 00Z RUC AND NAM HAVE COME IN DRIER. ANY FOG
THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD DISSIPATE THROUGH 15Z-16Z AND MAY LIFT INTO A
MVFR CEILING FOR A TIME. ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN AREAS AS THE WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH. EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE SOME AND CLOUDS TO LIFT
TO VFR THROUGH 19Z OR SO AND MAY SEE SOME WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 20
KNOTS.

KMSP...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY MORNING. MAY YET SEE SOME MVFR FOG
FORM TOWARD DAWN...BUT ANTICIPATE IT TO BE RATHER BRIEF. MAY SEE
CUMULUS FORM AS WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE REGION AND THEN CLEAR OUT
DURING THE EVENING AS FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF REGION. WINDS SHOULD
BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AS WELL WITH PASSAGE OF FRONT AND COULD GUST
15-20 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH PERHAPS SOME FOG DEVELOPING LATE AGAIN. MENTIONED
6SM BR AT 10Z/17 FOR NOW.

//OUTLOOK...
SAT...VFR WITH -SHRA POSSIBLE SOUTH AND EAST OF MSP.
SUN-TUES...SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

JM/DE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION

NWS ST LOUIS MO

1258 PM CDT FRI MAR 16 2012

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1122 AM CDT FRI MAR 16 2012

APPEARS WEAK W 850MB FLOW CONTINUES TO TRANSPORT UNSTABLE AIR OVER
RAIN-COOLED AIRMASS CENTERED ON THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AROUND
STL...AND AS MORE SHOWERS FORM RAIN-COOLED AMS IS MAINTAINING ITS
IDENTITY. NOT CERTAIN HOW LONG THIS SELF-SUSTAINING PROCESS IS
GOING TO CONTINUE...AND NO GUIDANCE IS OFFERING MUCH OF A
CLUE...BUT CLIMATOLOGICALLLY SPEAKING THIS PROCESS SHOULD SHUT
DOWN HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON. ALSO WONDER IF ADDITIONAL STORMS
WILL TRY TO FORM FURTHER W ALONG SURFACE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. RUC IS
INDICATING SFC CONVERGENCE OF THIS MODERATLY UNSTABLE AMS...AND
HAVE BUMPED UP POPS JUST A BIT FROM E OZARKS TO NEAR UIN TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

FORECAST UPDATED TO RELFECT ABOVE TRENDS.

TRUETT

.SHORT TERM...
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT FRI MAR 16 2012
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

MAIN CONCERN DEALS WITH RAIN CHANCES THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE SHOWN A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN
AREAL EXTENT AND INTENSITY IN THE PAST TWO HOURS. MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE VORTEX HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST WHICH IS LIKELY
CAUSING SOME WEAK SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE. NEW CONVECTION IS NOW
PROPAGATING SOUTHWESTWARD OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI WHERE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY IS INTERSECTING THE LOW LEVEL JET. CONWAY PROFILER HAS
SHOWN SOME VEERING OF THE 850MB WIND WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO
SHIFT THE FOCUS OF NEW CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
CWA THE REST OF THE MORNING.

CONFIDENCE IN THE CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION TODAY AND TONIGHT IS NOT
HIGH AS FORCING WILL BE RATHER NEBULOUS. UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WITH TIME AND DO NOT SEE ANY VORT LOBES OR OTHER
FORCING THAT STANDS OUT DURING THE PERIOD. THE GFS AND LOCAL WRF
DOES SHOW THAT MLCAPES WILL CLIMB BACK INTO THE 1000-2000 J/KG
RANGE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MINIMAL CINH. COULD SEE ISOLD OR SCT
THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY ONCE THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES MORE
UNSTABLE. FOCUS MAY OCCUR ON ANY RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES OVER
THE AREA. WHILE EXTENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY NOT BE AS GREAT
AS YESTERDAY...THERE MAY STILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED HAIL
PRODUCING STORMS GIVEN THE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE
7-8C/KM RANGE.

ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO THINK WE ARE ALREADY IN MAY OR JUNE GIVEN
THAT THE CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 50-LOWER 60S. SEE
NO REASON THAT TEMPERATURES WON`T BE ABLE TO GET BACK INTO THE
LOWER 80S AGAIN TODAY GIVEN THE WARM START AND PARTIAL SUNSHINE
LATER TODAY.

BRITT

.LONG TERM...
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT FRI MAR 16 2012
(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)

BOTH THE GFS/LOCAL WRF ARE SHOWING THAT THERE WILL BE INCREASED
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE COINCIDENT WITH WEAK ASCENT CAUSED
BY A WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT WILL MOVE OVER THAT AREA ON SATURDAY. WILL
MAINTAIN THE HIGH CHANCE POPS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING. HERE
AGAIN THINK THAT ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
BECAUSE OF THE STEEP LAPSE RATES. SUNDAY THEN LOOKS DRY AS
SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT AND BEST LOW LEVEL FORCING SHIFTS WEST OVER
THE PLAINS. SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS FAVOR GOING AT OR
ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT UPPER FLOW WILL AMPLIFY
SIGNIFICANTLY NEXT WEEK AND THAT MO/IL WILL LIE BETWEEN A
RETREATING UPPER RIDGE AND DEEPENING TROUGH THAT WILL EVENTUALLY
ENTER THE GREAT PLAINS. THERE IS ENOUGH AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE
GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN GEM TO GO WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DURING MID
WEEK. TEMPERATURES SHOWING A COOLING TREND WITH THE RAIN AND A
COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE WEST...BUT EVEN THESE TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.

BRITT

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT FRI MAR 16 2012

ELEVATED STORMS THAT HAVE BEEN PARKED ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
NEAR STL AREA THROUGHOUT THE MORNING HAVE BEEN IN THE PROCESS OF
WEAKENING OVER THE LAST 45 MINUTES OR SO...AND BELIEVE THIS
DOWNWARD TREND SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.
MEANWHILE...IN THE PRISTINE AIR OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE
CWA...CU HAS BEGUN TO BUBBLE WITH THE DIURNAL HEATING. MAIN
QUESTION FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING IS IF AND/OR WHERE ADDITIONAL
STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR. STILL SEEING SUBTLE CONVERGENCE
BETWEEN RAIN COOLED AMS CENTERED ALONG RIVER AND UNSEASONABLY WARM
TEMPS OVER MID MO...AND BELIEVE THIS MAY BE AN AREA OF FOCUS.
RIGHT NOW...THIS AXIS IS BETWEEN ALL TAF SITES SO ONCE ONGOING
PRECIP WINDS DOWN OVER STL AREA ADDITIONAL PRECIP THREAT FOR THE
AFTERNOON WILL BE HANDLED BY CB CLOUD GROUP...AND WILL ATTEMPT TO
REFINE FORECAST SPECIFICS ONCE STORM DEVELOPMENT DOES OCCUR.

IF STORMS DO HAVE A DIURNAL MAXIMUM...FROM MID EVENING ON THE
NIGHT SHOULD BE FAIRLY TRANQUIL. ONLY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER WILL BE
SOME MVFR VSBYS THAT FORM IN THE SUS AND CPS AREAS DURING THE
PREDAWN HOURS WHERE WINDS WILL TEND TO DECOUPLE.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL...
PRECIP THAT HAS BEEN LOCKED NEAR MISSISSIPPI RIVER CONTINUES TO
DIMINISH...AND IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE IT LOOKS LIKE THREAT
WITH ONGOING ACTIVITY WILL END BY 19Z. BIGGER QUESTION IS WHERE
THE TSRA THREAT WILL BE LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND AS MENTIONED
ABOVE BEGINNING TO FOCUS ON AREA BETWEEN COU AND STL. FOR
NOW...PAST 19Z WILL HIGHLIGHT TS THREAT WITH CB CLOUD GROUP...AND
REFINE TRENDS IF/WHEN STORMS DO REDEVELOP. FOR THE MOST PART IT
WOULD APPEAR CIGS WILL BE AOA 5KFT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH CLOUDS
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT WITH LOSS OF HEATING.

TRUETT

.CLIMATE...
HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH MAXIMUM AND HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
FOR KSTL AND KCOU FOR TODAY (03/16).

KSTL

DAY DATE HI MAX YEAR HI MIN YEAR
FRI 03/16 86F 1945 57F 1919

KCOU

DAY DATE HI MAX YEAR HI MIN YEAR
FRI 03/16 87F 1945 55F 1945

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

WFO LSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS ST LOUIS MO

1131 AM CDT FRI MAR 16 2012

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1122 AM CDT FRI MAR 16 2012

FORECAST UPDATED TO RELFECT ABOVE TRENDS.

TRUETT

.SHORT TERM...
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT FRI MAR 16 2012
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

BRITT

.LONG TERM...
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT FRI MAR 16 2012
(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)

BRITT

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 534 AM CDT FRI MAR 16 2012

MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED WELL S OF THE TAF SITES
EARLY THIS MRNG WITH JUST ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS OVER OUR AREA.
HIGH LEVEL CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEBRIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO THIN OUT.
DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS MRNG INTO THE AFTN
AS THE MOIST ATMOSPHERE BECOMES MORE UNSTABLE WITH DAYTIME
HEATING. UNCERTAINTY WITH THE AMOUNT OF COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY BUT IT SHOULD BE LESS THAN YESTERDAY. MAY INCLUDE CB IN THE
CLOUD GROUPS IN THE TAFS THIS AFTN...PARTICULARLY THE STL AREA
TAFS. IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST COVERAGE WILL BE S OF THE TAF
SITES WITH THE STL AREA HAVING THE BEST CHANCE OF STORMS THIS AFTN
COMPARED WITH THE REST OF THE TAF LOCATIONS. SLY SFC WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORCAST PERIOD.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL...MAY NEED TO INCLUDE VCSH OR VCTS DURING THE
INITIAL COUPLE OF HOURS OF THE STL TAF AS THE RADAR WAS DETECTING
ISOLATED SHOWERS JUST E OF STL. DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL
DEVELOP THIS MRNG...BECOMING BKN EARLY THIS AFTN AROUND 4000-5000
FT. WILL CONTINUE CB IN THE CLOUD GROUP FOR THIS AFTN WITH AT
LEAST WIDELY SCATTERED AFTN STORMS EXPECTED. S-SW WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 9 KTS THIS AFTN...THEN DIMINISH TGT FROM A
S-SELY DIRECTION.

GKS

.CLIMATE...
HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH MAXIMUM AND HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
FOR KSTL AND KCOU FOR TODAY (03/16).

KSTL

DAY DATE HI MAX YEAR HI MIN YEAR
FRI 03/16 86F 1945 57F 1919

KCOU

DAY DATE HI MAX YEAR HI MIN YEAR
FRI 03/16 87F 1945 55F 1945

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

WFO LSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS ST LOUIS MO

904 AM CDT FRI MAR 16 2012

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 902 AM CDT FRI MAR 16 2012

N-S BAND OF CONVECTION JUST EAST OF STL APPARENTLY BEING FUELED BY
WEAK WAA/MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AROUND 850MB. RUC INDICATES THAT
THIS SHOULD WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
THE PRECIP TO GRADUALLY WIND DOWN. FORECAST UPDATED WITH THIS
THINKING.

TRUETT

.SHORT TERM...
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT FRI MAR 16 2012
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

BRITT

.LONG TERM...
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT FRI MAR 16 2012
(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)

BRITT

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 534 AM CDT FRI MAR 16 2012

GKS

.CLIMATE...
HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH MAXIMUM AND HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
FOR KSTL AND KCOU FOR TODAY (03/16).

KSTL

DAY DATE HI MAX YEAR HI MIN YEAR
FRI 03/16 86F 1945 57F 1919

KCOU

DAY DATE HI MAX YEAR HI MIN YEAR
FRI 03/16 87F 1945 55F 1945

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

WFO LSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GLASGOW MT

947 PM MDT SAT MAR 17 2012

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCLUDE SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY TONIGHT
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. SOME WIDELY SCATTERED ECHOES ARE
NOW ON RADAR. HRRR REPRESENTS THIS ACTIVITY AND HAS IT MOSTLY GONE
BY 6Z. ACTIVITY IS ALONG THE COLD FRONT BEGINNING TO ADVANCE INTO
THE AREA.

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCLUDE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR FIRE ZONE
122 FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE LOW SETTLES INTO SOUTHEAST
MONTANA LEAVING ZONE 122 ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH
MODERATE WINDS GENERATED BY THE LOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S IN THIS AREA WITH
DEWPOINTS A COUPLE DEGREES LOWER THAN TODAY. CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE
WIND WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...WHILE LOW RH IS A SAFE BET...WIND STRENGTH
IS A LITTLE MORE QUESTIONABLE AND WILL LET NEXT SHIFT TAKE A LAST
LOOK TO DECIDE ON THE FIRE WEATHER WARNING.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN MONTANA BORDER ARE
CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE CLOSE TO ALL TIME RECORDS FOR THE MONTH
OF MARCH...SO ADDED WORDING TO THAT EFFECT TO THE FORECAST.

NEXT PRECIPITATION PRODUCING SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE DUE IN SUNDAY
NIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING. LATEST GFS HAS MOST SIGNIFICANT RAIN
BEGINNING AROUND NOON ON MONDAY...WITH SNOW POSSIBLE AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. TEMPERATURES DROP MONDAY NIGHT WHILE PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS DECREASE. LINGERING PRECIPITATION SHOULD TURN TO SNOW
MONDAY NIGHT. SREF BEGINS RAIN MONDAY MORNING WITH A RAIN SNOW MIX
OVER MOST OF THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON. MARTIN
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS BROUGHT RECORD WARM TEMPS TO THE AREA IS
SLOWLY BEING SQUEEZED TO THE EAST AS A STRONG UPPER TROUGH IS
DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN STATES. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OUT AHEAD OF
THE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL MONTANA SOUTHWEST. THE LOW WILL
DRIFT EAST INTO THE CWA TONIGHT THEN WEAKEN SUNDAY AS A SECONDARY
LOW FORMS OVER NE WY. THIS LOW THEN TRACKS NORTHEAST REACHING SE
SASK MONDAY MORNING. ARCTIC AIR LOCKED UP OVER NORTHERN CANADA
WILL THEN BLEED SOUTH AND MODIFY OVER BARE GROUND FIRST INTO
NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE DROPPING THROUGH EASTERN
MONTANA ON MONDAY.

THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS WHOLE SYSTEM BEING OVER NORTH-CENTRAL OR
CENTRAL MONTANA AND THIS CONTINUES TO BE THE CASE. HOWEVER...SW
PHILLIPS AND PETROLEUM COUNTIES MAY BE CLOSE ENOUGH FOR SOME
SNOW...WITH SW PHILLIPS POSSIBLY RECEIVING A COUPLE OF
INCHES...ESPECIALLY AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. BUT MUCH OF THE
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO OCCUR AS RAIN AS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THE
AIRMASS NEAR THE GROUND WARM ENOUGH DURING THE GREATEST LIFT.

TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM...UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. THE SE CORNER SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST
WITH READINGS APPROACHING 80 DEGREES. JAMBA

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN ELONGATED TROUGH GENERALLY JUST EAST OF
THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM
THE BORDER BETWEEN MONTANA AND THE DAKOTAS SOUTH TO NEW MEXICO.
THE COLD FRONT MOVES EAST OF MONTANA MONDAY NIGHT. THE NORTH TO
SOUTH ORIENTATED OVERRUNNING MOISTURE FEED SHIFTING EAST WILL
CUT OFF MOST PRECIPITATION FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA. STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ADVECT COLD AIR INTO THE AREA SENDING
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES LOWER AND MUCH CLOSER TO NORMAL. THE WINDS
DIMINISH LATE TUESDAY AND THE COLD START TO THE DAY WILL TEND TO
LIMIT HIGHS CLOSE TO NORMAL.

MODELS BUILD A RIDGE BEHIND THE TROUGH...BUT THE EC RIDGE IS MORE
AMPLIFIED. THE GFS DEVELOPS MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN OVER
EASTERN MONTANA WITH THE COLD BOUNDARY NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER. THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY WHICH WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO TREND WARMER AGAIN.

THE NEXT WAVE/COLD FRONT WILL REACH NORTHEAST MONTANA AROUND
THURSDAY EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL GENERALLY BE DRY...ISOLATED
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE MAIN EFFECT WILL BE TO TREND
TEMPERATURES COOLER...CLOSER TO NORMAL. BUT UPPER RIDGING AND A
WARM FRONT FOLLOWS FOR SATURDAY...WARMING TEMPERATURES AGAIN AND
BRINGING A CHANCE FOR MORE RAIN.

FEW CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE GRIDS. SCT

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SYNOPTIC SET UP...A LONG WAVE RIDGE STRETCHES FROM ONTARIO THROUGH
THE MIDWEST DOWN TO THE SOUTHWEST...WHILE A AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE
TROUGH SPANS THE FOUR CORNERS THROUGH THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST AND
UP INTO THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES. A SMALL RIDGE IS OFF THE COAST
OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH ANOTHER LONGWAVE TROUGH EXITING THE
BEARING SEA INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE TROUGH ACROSS MONTANA WILL
STAY IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY AND EVENTUALLY BEGIN TO EXIT TO THE
EAST AS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS TURNS INTO A
CUT OFF LOW AND PARKS ITSELF OVER THE PLAINS. VERY COLD AIR WILL
BE PRESENT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH FREEZING TEMPERATURES DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. WHAT SNOW SHOWERS WERE PRESENT MONDAY NIGHT
SHOULD EXIT THE AREA BY TUESDAY AS WELL. THE COLD AIR MASS SHOULD
BEGIN TO SHALLOW AND THEN WARM THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST RIDGE MAKES ITS WAY INTO MONTANA.

THURSDAY NIGHT ONWARD...THE CUT OFF LOW OVER THE PLAINS AND
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL BE THE CAUSE OF MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST. MODELS AT THIS POINT ARE NOT SURE WHETHER TO REABSORB
THE FLOW BACK INTO THE ARCTIC JET OR NOT. THIS CAUSES THE ARCTIC
JET OVER EASTERN MONTANA TO BE IN EITHER A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN
IN ONE MODEL OR A SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN IN ANOTHER. ENSEMBLE
OPTIONS FOR RESOLVING THIS DISCREPANCY ARE ALSO AS CLEAR AS MUD.
THEREFORE CONFIDENCE IN THIS GROUP OF PERIODS IS LOW AND SYNOPTIC
MODEL BLENDS WITH MOS...CLIMO...AND 50 PERCENT PERSISTENCE WERE
USED TO DETERMINE MOST OF THE NUMBERS HERE ONWARD. CONFIDENCE IN
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS VERY LOW. GAH

.AVIATION...
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST MOVING ONSHORE WILL
CONTINUE THE STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER MONTANA. THIS TROUGH
WILL EJECT MOISTURE NORTH INTO THE REGION...RESULTING IN MID
LEVEL CLOUDS. BUT WITH THE COLD FRONT STALLING JUST TO OUR WEST
EXPECT LIMITED PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF VICINITY SHOWERS
TONIGHT FOR THE NORTHEAST MONTANA TERMINALS.

THEREFORE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL
DIMINISH THIS EVENING TO LESS THAN 15KT AS THE LEE TROUGH SLIDES
OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA. AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS SOUTH SUNDAY WINDS
WILL BECOME NORTHERLY AT AROUND 10KT. SCT/BLM

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST...MOST AREAS WILL BE
COOLER AND LESS WINDY ON SUNDAY THAN WHAT WAS SEEN ON SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 122 WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE
FRONT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WIND IN THIS ZONE WILL STILL BE
ELEVATED AS WELL WITH THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVING INTO
SOUTHEAST MONTANA. RH DOWN TO 10 TO 20 PERCENT WILL COMBINE WITH
WIND OF 10 TO 25 MPH TO PRODUCE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
FOR THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF ZONE 122 SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MARTIN

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR MTZ122.

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BILLINGS MT

1021 AM MDT FRI MAR 16 2012

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SAT...

ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY IS ON THE WAY THANKS TO MIXING IN ADVANCE OF
A RELATIVELY WEAK COLD FRONT. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALL SUPPORT
MIXING TO AT LEAST 700 HPA TODAY...WHICH WILL PROVIDE HIGHS IN THE
70S F IN MANY AREAS. LIKE WAS THE CASE ON THURSDAY...ONCE WE START
SIGNIFICANT MIXING...TEMPERATURES AND WINDS ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL
RAMP UP QUICKLY IN AS LITTLE AS AN HOUR. THAT SHOULD OCCUR NEAR 18
UTC BASED ON PERSISTENCE FROM YESTERDAY AND THE 12 UTC RUC AND NAM
FORECAST SOUNDINGS. BUFKIT-BASED MOMENTUM TRANSFER TOOLS SUGGEST A
PEAK WIND IN THE MIXED LAYER OF 30 TO 40 KT...SO GUSTS OF AT LEAST
30 MPH SHOULD BE IN THE CARDS. A RED FLAG WARNING IS THUS IN PLACE
TO COVER THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THE GRASSLANDS.

ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO TODAY/S FORECAST...MAINLY TO RAISE
HIGHS JUST BIT OVER SOUTHEASTERN MT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY
OF A BIT DEEPER MIXING THAN EXPECTED. WE ARE CALLING FOR A HIGH OF
77 F AT MILES CITY...WHICH IS ONE DEGREE SHY OF THEIR DAILY RECORD
SET IN 1994. SCHULTZ

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THOUGH
THERE ARE SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN PRECIP LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...MAINLY RESULTING FROM A STRONG UPSLOPE/LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE SIGNATURE IN THE 00Z GFS RUN THAT THE ECMWF DOES NOT
HAVE. AT ANY RATE...LOOK FOR CONDITIONS TO TURN COOLER AND WETTER
LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH
THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS TO SUPPORT ACCUMULATING SNOW.

ON SUNDAY AS A BROAD NEARLY NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. AS THIS BROAD TROUGH PUSHES EAST SUNDAY
WE WILL SEE AN INCREASING CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AS SHORT WAVES
WITHIN THE MEAN FLOW EJECT OUT FROM THE GREAT BASIN TOWARD THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS. CONTINUED THE TREND TO INCREASE
POPS IN THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES A BIT...ESPECIALLY BY
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING FRONTOGENESIS...UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE...INSTABILITY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR AN UPSLOPE
COMPONENT WITHIN THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT...WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND MOIST WRAPAROUND ALOFT IN THE
LOW LEVELS KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN AND SNOW IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AS SUCH...RAISED POPS A BIT ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY. TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE A TRANSITION DAY AS THE UPPER
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SLOWLY PUSHED EASTWARD BY A BUILDING RIDGE.

DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES. MODELS DIVERGE IN THEIR SOLUTIONS
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. WHEREAS THE GFS CONTINUES TO TREND TOWARDS
RIDGING ALOFT...THE ECMWF PUSHES A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS A
DRAMATIC CHANGE FROM ITS PREVIOUS SOLUTION OF A RIDGE DOMINATING
THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
ECMWF SOLUTION AT THIS POINT...KEPT TEMPS ON THE WARM SIDE WITH
JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MOUNTAIN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE RIDGE. STC

.AVIATION...

SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
SOUTH OF KLVM TODAY PRODUCING OCCASIONAL MOUNTAIN TOP OBSCURATIONS.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL OUR FORECAST TERMINALS
TODAY. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
GUSTING AS HIGH AS 45 KTS AT KLVM TODAY. WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS
EVENING BEHIND A COLD FRONT. BT

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

TDY SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 072 040/069 044/067 036/048 031/050 031/061 036/065
1/N 22/T 24/W 54/W 22/W 00/B 00/B
LVM 064 037/063 036/057 029/043 027/045 030/057 034/060
3/W 24/T 35/W 64/W 22/W 20/N 01/B
HDN 074 038/072 041/070 034/051 030/053 029/063 033/068
1/N 12/W 13/W 44/W 22/W 00/B 00/B
MLS 077 040/076 043/072 038/051 029/051 030/062 034/067
0/N 11/B 11/B 33/W 22/W 10/B 01/B
4BQ 076 040/075 044/074 036/051 030/050 030/062 034/067
0/N 01/N 01/N 24/W 22/W 11/B 11/B
BHK 077 039/075 044/075 040/053 028/046 029/060 035/065
0/N 11/N 01/B 23/W 22/W 11/B 11/B
SHR 075 037/074 041/067 032/047 028/048 027/059 030/063
1/N 11/B 22/W 34/W 32/W 00/B 01/B

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING BELOW
5000 FEET FOR ZONES 123>129.
RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
ZONES 130>133.
WY...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
ZONE 274.

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS NORTH PLATTE NE

620 PM CDT SAT MAR 17 2012

.UPDATE...

.AVIATION...
AREAS OF FOG AND LIFR SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 83
AS THE DRY LINE RETREATS WEST OVERNIGHT. THE HRRR AND NAM
SUGGESTED DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN 08Z-09Z. BURN-OFF SHOULD OCCUR
BETWEEN 15Z-17Z.

WINDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON INCREASE TO 18035G45KT IN RESPONSE TO DEEP
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. HIGHEST SPEEDS ARE
EXPECTED ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 83.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 PM CDT SAT MAR 17 2012/

SYNOPSIS...
H5 ANALYSIS THIS MORNING INDICATING A LARGE...DEEPENING TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE PACIFIC COAST...WITH THE DEEPEST HT FALLS
EXTENDING FROM NRN CA TO CENTRAL CA. BROAD SWRLY FLOW ALOFT WAS
NOTED FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...EWD TO THE MID ATLANTIC AND NEW
ENGLAND. WINDS AT THIS LEVEL WERE GENERALLY LIGHT ACROSS MOST OF THE
CONUS. THE EXCEPTION WAS FROM SRN CA NEWD INTO NEVADA...UTAH AND
IDAHO WHERE 50+ KT WINDS WERE NOTED. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE
WAS NOTED OVER NWRN WYOMING...WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING
ACROSS SRN ND INTO NRN MN. A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED
FROM SERN WYOMING SWD INTO ERN NM. PESKY STRATUS DEVELOPED EARLIER
THIS MORNING AND PERSISTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND ERN CWA THROUGH
NOONTIME. TEMPS ARE FINALLY JUST ABOUT TO 70 DEGREES AT KLBF AND
KBBW. ELSEWHERE...TEMPS ARE WELL ON THEIR WAY TO LOWER 80S.

DISCUSSION...

NEAR TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MAIN FORECASTING CHALLENGES IN
THE NEAR PERIODS DEAL WITH WINDS...TEMPERATURES...AND PRECIPITATION
THREAT SUNDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND. FOR TONIGHT...LOWS WILL BE TRICKY
ONCE AGAIN AS THEY WILL BE DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE DRY LINE SETS UP
AND WHERE STRATUS DECIDES TO FORM. BASED ON THE LATEST NAM SOLN AND
MET GUIDANCE...LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 STAND TO SEE
THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR STRATUS AND FOG FORMATION. WILL WORD
FORECAST WITH PATCHY FOG IN THE EAST AND AREAS OF FOG IN LOCATIONS
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STRATUS DECK WHERE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHTER. AS FOR LOWS...AM EXPECTING A SHARP GRADIENT
IN LOWS FROM WEST TO EAST ALONG THE DRYLINE...WITH AROUND 30 IN THE
PANHANDLE...TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S IN THE FAR EAST.

THE FORECAST FOCUS SHIFTS TO WINDS...FIRE DANGER...TEMPERATURES AND
THEN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT. INHERITED A HIGH WIND WATCH
FOR MY CENTRAL AND WESTERN ZONES FOR TOMORROW. CONFIDENCE IN
ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR WINDS LOOKS GOOD RIGHT NOW AS H925 WINDS HIT
35 KTS TOMORROW AFTERNOON IN MOST AREAS. WHAT CONCERNS ME RIGHT NOW
IS WINDS NOT BEING HIGH ENOUGH FOR A WARNING. GUIDANCE WINDS ARE IN
THE 30 TO 35 KT RANGE WHICH IS BORDERLINE WARNING ATTM. H85 AND H925
WINDS TOMORROW AFTERNOON ARE INDICATIVE OF LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION WHICH WOULD HINDER MOMENTUM TRANSFER TO THE
SURFACE...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FA TOMORROW.
FINALLY...HIGHER WINDS TOMORROW WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHETHER
OR NOT STRATUS SETS UP...AND HOW FAR WEST THIS GOES OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT AND FAST IT CAN BURN OFF SUNDAY. WITH THESE
UNCERTAINTIES...FEEL A WATCH IS ADEQUATE ATTM AND WILL LET THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT CREW LOOK AT THIS CLOSER. WINDS WILL BE STRONG
ENOUGH AND MINIMUM RH`S LOW ENOUGH TO WARRANT ISSUANCE OF A RED FLAG
WARNING FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH A WATCH IN THE EAST. SEE THE
FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS. AFTER
SUNDOWN...FORECAST FOCUS SHIFTS TO THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES...ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN AREAS OVERNIGHT. INITIATION OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED ACROSS WRN TX TO WRN KS INVOF OF A DRYLINE
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL WINDS WILL BECOME MORE MERIDIONAL
SUNDAY EVENING...WHICH WILL CARRY THIS ACTIVITY NNEWD INTO CENTRAL
AND EASTERN NEBRASKA. LATE NIGHT TIMING IN NEBRASKA IS EXPECTED TO
CURTAIL THE SEVERE THREAT...WITH THE BULK OF IT SOUTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS THE HIGHEST POPS IN EASTERN
AREAS...WHERE THE BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS LOCATED.

ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIFT ACROSS
THE ROCKIES...EMERGING ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS MONDAY EVENING. IN THE
MEANTIME...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER IN THE EAST MONDAY
MORNING. THE THREAT WILL SHIFT TO THE ENTIRE CWA MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION. LIKE SUNDAY
NIGHT...POPS WILL BE HIGHEST IN THE CENTRAL AND EAST...WHERE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE FOCUSED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FURTHER
WEST...FORCING REMAINS DECENT...BUT A LACK OF MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO
SPOTTY COVERAGE OF SHRAS AT BEST.

THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL TRACK SLOWLY EAST ON TUESDAY
WITH A LINGERING THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND OVERCAST SKIES. DEEP LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE...DECENT INSTABILITY AND BEST FORCING WILL REMAIN
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...SO WILL FORGO MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS
AT THIS TIME AND LEAVE PRECIPITATION AS RAIN SHOWERS ONLY. COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS WILL BE SPOTTY WITH LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE.
CLOUDY SKIES...WILL LEAD TO HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S...WHICH IS
ACTUALLY AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

GENERAL TREND THROUGH THIS PERIOD IS AGAIN ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH AND
AND DRY. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN HOW THE MODELS HANDLE THE
UPPER TROUGH /CURRENTLY OVER THE WEST COAST/ AS IT PROGRESSES ACROSS
THE CONUS. THERE HAS BEEN A CONSENSUS THAT THE UPPER LOW WILL CLOSE
OFF ON TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. IT THEN
SLOWLY PROGRESSES EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WHILE
STRONG RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE TRACK OF THE
UPPER LOW LOOKS TO BE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH THAT ANY PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH IT ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WOULD STAY WELL
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. THERE WILL BE SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA THROUGH THE PERIOD...HOWEVER WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF A FEW WIND SHIFTS AND SLIGHT TEMPERATURE
CHANGES...NOTICEABLE SENSIBLE WEATHER AFFECTS FROM THESE SYSTEMS
WILL BE VERY SMALL. BY SATURDAY BOTH THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF AND GFS
FROM 17.12Z INDICATE ANOTHER AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVING
TOWARDS THE WEST COAST...CAUSING STRENGTHENING OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE. BY MID WEEKEND...GFS INDICATES 850MB TEMPERATURES AGAIN
APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING THE 20C MARK. THE ECMWF IS A BIT SLOWER AND
FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER THE WEEKEND AS IT MOVES INTO
THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. THIS KEEPS THINGS A BIT COOLER...AS IT PULLS
COLDER AIR FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. WILL NOT GO TOO WARM QUITE YET WITH TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP HIGHS ABOVE NORMAL
WITH MODIFICATIONS LIKELY IN COMING FORECASTS.

AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO TONIGHT. WINDS WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY
TONIGHT THEN WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS
EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. IN ADDITION...MODEL GUIDANCE IS
AGAIN SUGGESTING ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EAST OF A LINE FROM
KLBF TO KANW. DID INCLUDE A LOWER VISIBILITY FOR A FEW HOURS AT KLBF
BUT WITH WINDS NOT BECOMING CALM...THE HIGHER THREAT MAY BE LIFR
CEILINGS FOR A PORTION OF THE MORNING.

FIRE WEATHER...

CONDITIONS LOOK FAVORABLE FOR A RED FLAG WARNING SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY IN AREAS NEAR AND WEST OF A LINE FROM
AINSWORTH TO NORTH PLATTE TO CURTIS. EAST OF THIS LINE...THERE IS
MORE UNCERTAINTY DUE TO HIGHER DEWPOINTS...AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL
FOR FOG AND STRATUS IN THE MORNING TO IMPACT TEMPERATURES AND MIXING
POTENTIAL. WINDS WILL BE STRONG THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS LOW
PRESSURE TO THE WEST STRENGTHENS. COULD SEE SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 30 TO
40 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON. ALSO...WHERE THE DRIER
AIR IS EXPECTED...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL DROP BELOW 20 PERCENT.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED TO BE A BIT HIGHER GOING TOWARDS
EASTERN NEBRASKA...BUT IF CLOUDS CLEAR OUT EARLY ENOUGH COULD SEE
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE 80S...STILL DROPPING RELATIVE HUMIDITY
TO AROUND 20 TO 25 PERCENT. AS THE WINDS WILL BE BLOWING AT SUCH
STRONG SPEEDS...EVEN WITH THE HIGHER HUMIDITY...THE POTENTIAL FOR
FIRES TO SPREAD WOULD REMAIN HIGH. SO AS THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING LOCATIONS EAST OF AINSWORTH TO NORTH PLATTE TO
CURTIS...WILL ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR ZONE 209.

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ204-206-208-210-219.

RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON CDT /11 AM MDT/ TO 8 PM CDT /7 PM
MDT/ SUNDAY FOR NEZ204-206-208-210-219.

HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
NEZ004>006-008-009-022>026-035>037-056>059-069-070-094.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR NEZ209.

SHORT TERM/EXTENDED...CLB
AVIATION...CDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HASTINGS NE

1248 PM CDT FRI MAR 16 2012

.AVIATION...18Z KGRI TAF. LOW PRESSURE PASSING NEAR THE TAF
SITE...WILL HELP INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE PLAINS.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE SOUTH TO
AROUND 12 KTS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE REST OF
THE DAY. HOWEVER...THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE TAF SITE WILL BE THE
POSSIBILITY FOR VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS ON SUNDAY. FOG THIS MORNING WAS QUITE DENSE IN NATURE
ACROSS THE AREA...AND MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE SAME FOR
SUNDAY MORNING. THE GFS EVEN SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY OF DRIZZLE
ACROSS THE AREA. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THIS MORNING AND
TOMORROW MORNING WILL BE WIND SPEEDS. WIND SPEEDS THIS MORNING
WERE LIGHT AND CALM...WHEREAS...WINDS SPEEDS ACROSS THE REGION
TOMORROW SHOULD BE NEAR 12KTS WHICH WILL HELP INHIBIT FOG
FORMATION. ALSO WHILE IT REMAINS BORDERLINE...THE LOW LEVEL JET IS
EXPECTED TO KICK UP JUST EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT...CREATING
THE POTENTIAL FOR LLWS OVERNIGHT. DECIDED TO LEAVE IT OUT OF THE
TAF FOR NOW AS CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1054 AM CDT FRI MAR 16 2012/

UPDATE...

VISIBILITIES HAVE IMPROVED ACROSS THE AREA...THEREFORE THE DENSE
FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 729 AM CDT FRI MAR 16 2012/

UPDATE...AFTER WATCHING SEVERAL MORE AUTOMATED SITES CRASH TO 1/4
MILE OR LOWER VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WITHIN THE LAST 60-90
MINUTES...OPTED TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR ALL BUT THE FAR
NORTHERN CWA. ALTHOUGH THIS FOG IS RATHER SHALLOW IN NATURE...IT
IS CREATING CONSIDERABLE VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AT THE BUSY
MORNING COMMUTE TIME. THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE CWA IS LIKELY
NOT EXPERIENCING AS MUCH DENSE FOG...BUT WASN/T GOING TO GET TOO
CUTE AND TAKE ANY CHANCES LEAVING THESE COUNTIES OUT. BASED ON
LATEST HRRR VISIBILITY PROGS...DENSE FOG COULD BE QUITE STUBBORN
TO MIX OUT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA...ALTHOUGH FEEL THAT 16Z EXPIRATION OF HEADLINE SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT.

AVIATION...12Z KGRI TAF. THIS WILL BE A CHALLENGING 24 HOURS WITH
REGARD TO CEILING/VISIBILITY TRENDS. STARTING OUT RIGHT AWAY THIS
MORNING...SHALLOW DENSE FOG HAS SETTLED INTO THE AREA...AND COULD
LAST FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS BEFORE MIXING OUT TO VFR
VISIBILITY/CEILING BY LATE MORNING. THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS SHOULD REMAIN QUIET WITH A STEADY SOUTH BREEZE AROUND 12KT.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE DECREASES AGAIN DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS OR SO
OF THE PERIOD LATE TONIGHT...WITH VARIOUS MODELS SUGGESTING
ANOTHER ROUND OF POTENTIALLY DENSE FOG AND STRATUS. WITH BETTER
MIXING THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER DUE TO STEADY BUT LIGHT SOUTH
BREEZES...AM THINKING THAT STRATUS IS A MORE LIKELY BET THAN
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG. FOR NOW...HAVE STARTED THE TREND WITH AN
MVFR VSBY RESTRICTION AND AN IFR CEILING...BUT THIS LAST 6 HOURS IS
VERY SUBJECT TO CHANGE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 431 AM CDT FRI MAR 16 2012/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE BIG STORY WILL
CENTER AROUND THE NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON AND
THEN THE CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY EVENING
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

TODAY...UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND THE UPPER JET STREAM WELL TO OUR NORTH. THE RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURE FOR TODAY IS 80 DEGREES IN GRAND ISLAND AND
KEARNEY...AND 79 DEGREES IN HASTINGS. WE WILL COME VERY CLOSE TO
BREAKING THESE RECORD HIGHS BY THIS AFTERNOON. SOME AREAS WILL
START OFF WITH FOG THIS MORNING...BUT THIS SHOULD QUICKLY SCATTER
OUT WITHIN A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE.

SATURDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE JUST AS WARM AS TODAY.
HOWEVER...THE RECORD HIGHS FOR SATURDAY ARE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER...WHICH WILL MAKE BREAKING THEM A LITTLE HARDER. THE RECORD
HIGH ON SATURDAY IS 83 DEGREES IN KEARNEY AND HASTINGS...BUT ONLY
81 DEGREES IN GRAND ISLAND. THESE RECORDS COULD AGAIN BE
THREATENED ESPECIALLY IN GRAND ISLAND. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE ON SATURDAY AND WILL BE A BIT GUSTY BY AFTERNOON. THE DRY
LINE WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS OUR WESTERN CWA ON SATURDAY BUT THERE
WILL NOT BE ENOUGH FORCING GIVEN THE RATHER STRONG CAP.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IF THE DRY LINE
DOES CREEP INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES. SEVERAL COUNTIES SUCH AS
DAWSON...GOSPER...AND FURNAS COULD BE ON THE VERGE OF MEETING RED
FLAG WARNING CRITERIA SATURDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD THE DRY LINE SLIP
FAR ENOUGH EAST AND DEW POINTS PLUMMET.

SUNDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS DEEP INTO THE ROCKIES AND
SOUTH WINDS BECOME EVEN MORE GUSTY OVER THE PLAINS OUT AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
AREA ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN CLIMB INTO THE UPPER
70S TO AROUND 80 BUT THE RECORDS FOR THIS DAY ARE IN THE MID 80S
AND SHOULD NOT BE TOO CLOSELY THREATENED. THE MAIN CONCERN ON
SUNDAY WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE
HIGH PLAINS BY LATE AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR SOME COOLING ALOFT.
HOWEVER...THE QUESTION IS WILL THE FORCING AND HEIGHT FALLS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MAKE IT FAR ENOUGH EAST TO GET US
CONVECTION BEFORE SUNSET ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND KANSAS.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT CONVECTION WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY AFTER
SUNSET AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THEREFORE...WILL ONLY BE
GOING WITH A RATHER WEAK SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON HOURS AND THEN A MODEST CHANCE OF STORMS
SUNDAY NIGHT. IF STORMS CAN FORM LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR SUNDAY NIGHT
THEY CERTAINLY COULD BECOME SEVERE GIVEN THE STRONG WIND SHEAR AND
WEAK TO MODEST INSTABILITY.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. BY FAR THE MAIN FOCUS OF THIS
FOUR DAYS IS THE EVOLUTION OF THE EXPANSIVE...DEEP UPPER TROUGH
TRANSLATING SLOWLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS...AND WHETHER ANY
CONVECTION IN THE MONDAY TIME FRAME MIGHT BE STRONG TO SEVERE.

STARTING OFF WITH MONDAY...LATEST 00Z RUNS OF THE ECMWF/GFS ARE IN
PRETTY DECENT AGREEMENT WITH LARGE SCALE FEATURES...WITH A NEUTRAL
TO SLIGHTLY NEGATIVELY TILTED 500MB VORT MAX CHARGING INTO WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE DAY...ON THE FRONT SIDE OF
THE PRIMARY TROUGH AXIS STRETCHED FROM MT TO NM. OBVIOUSLY FORCING
FOR ASCENT WILL BE CONSIDERABLE WITH A NEARLY MERIDIONAL 120+KT
300MB JET STREAK ALIGNED DIRECTLY OVER THE CWA IN THE AFTERNOON
HOURS PER THE ECMWF. IN GENERAL...THE EVOLVING THEME OVER LAST FEW
MODEL RUNS HAS BEEN FOR A FASTER PROGRESSION TO THE SURFACE
DRYLINE...WITH ECMWF/GFS GENERALLY AGREEING...FOR NOW ANYWAY...THAT
THE DRYLINE WILL RAPIDLY SURGE ACROSS THE CWA FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS/EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE A PRETTY GOOD BET DURING THE
DAY...WITH LIKELY POPS STILL FOCUSED ACROSS ROUGHLY THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE CWA...NOT NECESSARILY SURE HOW MUCH OF A STRONG/SEVERE STORM
THREAT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...AS STREAM OF EARLIER CONVECTION MOVING
IN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH COULD RESULT IN CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER AND
POOR LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM 00Z
GFS ARE FAIRLY SATURATED THROUGH A DEEP LAYER WITH MINIMAL CAPE.
OTHER ISSUES FOR MONDAY INCLUDE CONTINUED STRONG SOUTH TO
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS AS THE DRYLINE APPROACHES AND PASSES...WHICH
COULD EASILY APPROACH OR REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA DEPENDING ON THE
STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE GRADIENT. FINALLY...IF THE DRYLINE SURGES
THROUGH AS FAST AS CURRENTLY ADVERTISED...AND IF FORECAST HIGH TEMPS
AROUND 70 ARE REALIZED...THEN FIRE WEATHER ISSUES COULD CROP UP
DURING THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT MIGHT MANAGE TO
AVOID WIDESPREAD RAINFALL UP TO THAT POINT. FOR NOW...ALLBLEND
CONSENSUS DEWPOINTS IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ARE CONSIDERABLY
HIGHER THAN THOSE PRESENTED BY THE 00Z ECMWF/GFS RUNS...AND KEEP
MINIMUM RH VALUES SAFELY ABOVE 20 PERCENT...BUT JUST NOT SURE THIS
WILL LAST OVER NEXT SEVERAL FORECAST ISSUANCES IF THESE PROGRESSIVE
TRENDS HOLD.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...KEPT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD POPS ACROSS
CWA FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT LOWERED TO ONLY THE 20-40 PERCENT
RANGE AS LATEST MODEL RUNS ACTUALLY WOULD SUGGEST THIS 24-HOUR
PERIOD COULD NOW REMAIN DOWNRIGHT DRY IN THE WAKE OF THE INITIAL
VORT MAX AND SURFACE DRYLINE. BOTTOM LINE HERE IS...THESE POPS ARE
REALLY STARTING TO COME INTO QUESTION...AND MAY ULTIMATELY BE
PULLED FROM FORECAST ALTOGETHER IF TRENDS HOLD. KEPT HIGH TEMPS
TUESDAY RIGHT AROUND 60 DEGREES. FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...KEPT IT
DRY...ALTHOUGH MODELS SUGGEST SOME SHOWERS COULD FLIRT WITH THE
SOUTHEAST CWA.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...UNCERTAINTY REALLY GROWS IN THE
FORECAST...AS MODELS DIVERGE ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE PARENT
MID/UPPER TROUGH AS IT STARTS TO STALL OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CORRIDOR OF THE NATION AND CUT OFF. WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS MOST IF
NOT ALL PRECIP EAST OF THE CWA...THE GFS AND ITS 00Z ENSEMBLE MEAN
WRAPS UP A STRONGER CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH
VORT ENERGY WRAPPING AROUND THIS EXPANSIVE LOW GENERATING
CONSIDERABLE RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY WITHIN THE REGION. ALTHOUGH NOT
NECESSARILY SURE THEY ARE WARRANTED AT THIS POINT...LOADED ALLBLEND
MODEL CONSENSUS POPS PRETTY MUCH AS-IS...WITH 20-30 PERCENT CHANCES
FOR RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
ALTHOUGH ISOLATED THUNDER PROBABLY CANNOT BE RULED OUT...INSTABILITY
IN THIS PATTERN SHOULD BE FAIRLY MINIMAL...AND NOT WORTH A THUNDER
MENTION AT THIS TIME RANGE. TEMP WISE...KEPT HIGHS RIGHT AROUND OR
JUST BELOW 60 BOTH WED AND THURS...WHICH IS STILL AT LEAST A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE MARCH.

AVIATION...06Z KGRI TAF. PRIMARY ISSUE INVOLVES POTENTIAL FOG/LOW
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT DURING THE FIRST 9 HOURS OR SO OF THE PERIOD.
THE NIGHT IS STARTING OUT WITH VERY LIGHT/VARIABLE BREEZES AND
HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER RELATIVE HUMIDITY NOW THAT DEWPOINTS HAVE
INCREASED CONSIDERABLY OVER 24 HOURS AGO. THE OBVIOUS IMPLICATION
IS THAT AT LEAST MVFR VISIBILITY COULD TAKE HOLD AT ANY TIME.
ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE NOT UNANIMOUS ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF DENSE FOG
EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH THE BEST FOCUS APPEARING TO RESIDE 20-50
MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE TERMINAL...WILL CONTINUE THEME FROM
PREVIOUS FEW TAF ISSUANCES WITH LIFR CEILING/VISIBILITY IN A
TEMPO GROUP CENTERED AROUND SUNRISE. AGAIN THOUGH...DENSE FOG WITH
VSBY 1/4SM OR LESS IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. ASSUMING FOG DOES
ULTIMATELY SET IN...ANTICIPATE A FAIRLY STEADY BURN-OFF DURING THE
MORNING...AS SOUTHERLY BREEZES START PICKING UP A BIT. HAVE AIMED
FOR A 15Z RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS...WITH ONLY FEW/SCATTERED FAIR
WEATHER CUMULUS ANTICIPATED DURING THE BALANCE OF THE DAY. TOWARD
THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD SATURDAY EVENING...A STRENGTHENING LOW
LEVEL JET STREAM COULD PUSH LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IN THE LOWEST
2000 FT AGL CLOSE TO NEEDING A FORMAL MENTION...BUT WILL HOLD OFF
FOR NOW.

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HASTINGS NE

1054 AM CDT FRI MAR 16 2012

.UPDATE...

VISIBILITIES HAVE IMPROVED ACROSS THE AREA...THEREFORE THE DENSE
FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 729 AM CDT FRI MAR 16 2012/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 431 AM CDT FRI MAR 16 2012/

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HASTINGS NE

729 AM CDT FRI MAR 16 2012

.UPDATE...AFTER WATCHING SEVERAL MORE AUTOMATED SITES CRASH TO 1/4
MILE OR LOWER VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WITHIN THE LAST 60-90
MINUTES...OPTED TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR ALL BUT THE FAR
NORTHERN CWA. ALTHOUGH THIS FOG IS RATHER SHALLOW IN NATURE...IT
IS CREATING CONSIDERABLE VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AT THE BUSY
MORNING COMMUTE TIME. THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE CWA IS LIKELY
NOT EXPERIENCING AS MUCH DENSE FOG...BUT WASN/T GOING TO GET TOO
CUTE AND TAKE ANY CHANCES LEAVING THESE COUNTIES OUT. BASED ON
LATEST HRRR VISIBILITY PROGS...DENSE FOG COULD BE QUITE STUBBORN
TO MIX OUT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA...ALTHOUGH FEEL THAT 16Z EXPIRATION OF HEADLINE SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT.

.AVIATION...12Z KGRI TAF. THIS WILL BE A CHALLENGING 24 HOURS WITH
REGARD TO CEILING/VISIBILITY TRENDS. STARTING OUT RIGHT AWAY THIS
MORNING...SHALLOW DENSE FOG HAS SETTLED INTO THE AREA...AND COULD
LAST FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS BEFORE MIXING OUT TO VFR
VISIBILITY/CEILING BY LATE MORNING. THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS SHOULD REMAIN QUIET WITH A STEADY SOUTH BREEZE AROUND 12KT.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE DECREASES AGAIN DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS OR SO
OF THE PERIOD LATE TONIGHT...WITH VARIOUS MODELS SUGGESTING
ANOTHER ROUND OF POTENTIALLY DENSE FOG AND STRATUS. WITH BETTER
MIXING THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER DUE TO STEADY BUT LIGHT SOUTH
BREEZES...AM THINKING THAT STRATUS IS A MORE LIKELY BET THAN
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG. FOR NOW...HAVE STARTED THE TREND WITH AN
MVFR VSBY RESTRICTION AND AN IFR CEILING...BUT THIS LAST 6 HOURS IS
VERY SUBJECT TO CHANGE.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 431 AM CDT FRI MAR 16 2012/

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NEZ041-
046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.

KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KSZ005>007-
017>019.

UPDATE/AVIATION/LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
SHORT TERM...WESELY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HASTINGS NE

1235 AM CDT FRI MAR 16 2012

.AVIATION...06Z KGRI TAF. PRIMARY ISSUE INVOLVES POTENTIAL FOG/LOW
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT DURING THE FIRST 9 HOURS OR SO OF THE PERIOD.
THE NIGHT IS STARTING OUT WITH VERY LIGHT/VARIABLE BREEZES AND
HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER RELATIVE HUMIDITY NOW THAT DEWPOINTS HAVE
INCREASED CONSIDERABLY OVER 24 HOURS AGO. THE OBVIOUS IMPLICATION
IS THAT AT LEAST MVFR VISIBILITY COULD TAKE HOLD AT ANY TIME.
ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE NOT UNANIMOUS ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF DENSE FOG
EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH THE BEST FOCUS APPEARING TO RESIDE 20-50
MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE TERMINAL...WILL CONTINUE THEME FROM
PREVIOUS FEW TAF ISSUANCES WITH LIFR CEILING/VISIBILITY IN A
TEMPO GROUP CENTERED AROUND SUNRISE. AGAIN THOUGH...DENSE FOG WITH
VSBY 1/4SM OR LESS IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. ASSUMING FOG DOES
ULTIMATELY SET IN...ANTICIPATE A FAIRLY STEADY BURN-OFF DURING THE
MORNING...AS SOUTHERLY BREEZES START PICKING UP A BIT. HAVE AIMED
FOR A 15Z RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS...WITH ONLY FEW/SCATTERED FAIR
WEATHER CUMULUS ANTICIPATED DURING THE BALANCE OF THE DAY. TOWARD
THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD SATURDAY EVENING...A STRENGTHENING LOW
LEVEL JET STREAM COULD PUSH LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IN THE LOWEST
2000 FT AGL CLOSE TO NEEDING A FORMAL MENTION...BUT WILL HOLD OFF
FOR NOW.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CDT THU MAR 15 2012/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. MAIN FOCUS IS ON POTENTIAL
FOR FOG/STRATUS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. A FAIRLY LARGE AREA OF
STRATUS ENCOMPASSED THE SOUTHEAST THIRD OF OUR CWA THIS MORNING AND
THE LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO ERODE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. YORK
VSBY DROPPED TO A QUARTER MILE OR LESS FOR THE SECOND DAY IN A ROW
AND THE LOW VSBY LINGERED TO AROUND 15Z. MOISTURE AXIS AROUND
MIDDAY WAS LOCATED FROM KOLU TO KHSI TO KHLC WITH DPS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THIS LINE IN THE 50S. MODELS INDICATE MOISTURE AXIS WILL
EXPAND FARTHER NORTH AND WEST TONIGHT AS WINDS TRANSITION SOUTHERLY
AND REMAIN LIGHT. EXPECT STRATUS TO REDEVELOP ACROSS A LARGER
AREA...AND ENCOMPASS A GOOD PORTION OF OUR CWA. FOG/REDUCED VSBYS
HAVE BEEN A FAIRLY COMMON THEME IN THIS REGIME AND PLAN TO GO WITH
PERSISTENCE IN THIS PATTERN. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
VSBY RESTRICTIONS FRIDAY MORNING BASED ON RUC13 VSBYS PROGS AND
MODEL NUMERICAL GUIDANCE. MODELS DO INDICATE A LITTLE MORE IN THE
WAY OF MIXING OVER THE STRATUS...AND CONTEMPLATED ADDING IN SOME
DRIZZLE MENTION...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN DRIZZLE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH
ATTM. IN HIGHER MOISTURE TONIGHT...GENERALLY LOOKING AT MILDER LOWS
RANGING FM NEAR 40 ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF STRATUS...TO LOW/MID 50S
IN THE SOUTHEAST CWA WHERE DPS ARE HIGHER.

LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO ERODE AROUND MID DAY ON FRIDAY AND
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON. IN
BETTER MIXING CONDITIONS...TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 70S TO THE
LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

BEGINNING THE LONG TERM...MUCH OF THE CONUS REMAINS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
BEGINS TO PUSH EAST JUST OFF THE WEST COAST. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
CONTINUES TO DEEPEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND...PUSHING THE TROUGH AXIS
ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BY SUNDAY. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND MONTANA BY
SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL HELP INCREASE A PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND THUS INCREASING SOUTH WINDS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TO NEAR WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.

AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO SURGE NORTHWARD FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO. WHILE THE EC KEEPS MOISTURE WELL TO THE SOUTH
ON SUNDAY...THE GFS BRINGS THE MOISTURE MUCH FARTHER NORTH MAINLY
ACROSS FAR EASTERN NEBRASKA AND IOWA. BOTH THE GFS AND THE EC
CONTINUE TO SURGE MOISTURE NORTHWARD ON MONDAY...INCLUDING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA AND KANSAS. BOTH MODELS
ALSO HINT AT THE POSSIBILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND POTENTIALLY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...AS MU CAPES APPROACH 500 TO 1500 J/KG.

THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM PUSHES A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION
TUESDAY AFTERNOON DECREASING HIGH TEMPERATURES BY ABOUT 10 DEGREES
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...BOTH MODELS CONTINUE
TO PUSH ANY MOISTURE FARTHER EAST ACROSS IOWA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO DEEPEN FINALLY
CLOSING OFF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS TEXAS. AT THE SURFACE...THE
EC IS BEGINNING TO LOOK MORE LIKE THE GFS WITH A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SURGING NORTH FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS EASTERN
TEXAS. THIS LOW LOOKS TO SPIN NORTH ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA TEXAS
PANHANDLE WRAPPING AROUND YET ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS
KANSAS AND SOUTHERN NEBRASKA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...CMF
LONG TERM...SALTZMAN
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BURLINGTON VT

1033 AM EDT FRI MAR 16 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COMBINATION OF POTENT ENERGY ALOFT AND A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL PRODUCE OCCASIONAL SHOWERS...ALONG WITH A RUMBLE OF THUNDER
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. A SLOW CLEARING TREND WILL DEVELOP
BY LATE TODAY...WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURNING BY THE
WEEKEND. A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE THE NORTH
COUNTRY WITH MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1018 AM EDT FRIDAY...COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY LATE THIS MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE ESE
ACROSS FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...RATHER
POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION.
LATEST RADAR SHOWING THAT SHOWERS ARE RATHER WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH MOST CONCENTRATED ACTIVITY OVER EASTERN NEW
YORK AND NORTHERN VERMONT IN ADVANCE OF AFOREMENTIONED FRONT.
HIGH PW`S OF AROUND 1 INCH SUPPORT BAND OF MODERATE SHOWERS NOW
MOVING ACROSS THIS AREA. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS DECREASING OVER
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. EXPECT COVERAGE TO
DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS REST OF FORECAST AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. HARD TO RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER...BUT HAVE NOT
INCLUDED ANY MENTION AT THIS TIME AS CHANCES ARE RATHER LOW. MAX
TEMP FORECASTS IN UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S STILL LOOKS TO BE ON
TRACK...ALTHOUGH HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMP/DEWPOINT/WIND
DATASETS TO REFLECT LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND EXPECTED CONDITIONS
OVER NEXT FEW HOURS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...
A HAVE UPDATED TO REMOVE MENTION OF THUNDER IN ZONES...AS BEST
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY HAS SHIFTED TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST. A LOCAL WEB
CAM HAD A NICE DISPLAY OF IN CLOUD LIGHTNING LAST NIGHT...PER
PICTURE RECEIVED BY OUR LOCAL MEDIA. OTHERWISE...BAND OF MODERATE
RAIN IS ENTERING THE CPV ATTM...AND WL BE INTO CENTRAL VT BY
14Z...AND THRU EASTERN VT BY 17Z TODAY. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WL RANGE BTWN 0.15 AND 0.30" ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE.
RADAR STORM TOTAL PRECIP ESTIMATES SHOW AMOUNTS APPROACHING 1.0"
ACRS THE SLV...WHERE NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED STORMS
OCCURRED OVERNIGHT. THIS RAINFALL HAS SHIFTED EAST AND IS
WEAKENING AS STABILITY INCREASES.

OTHERWISE...HIGH TEMP FCST WL BE CHALLENGING THIS AFTN WITH SOME
BREAKS EXPECTED...FEEL A LATE AFTN HIGH TEMP WL OCCUR. HIGHS WL
RANGE FROM THE L/M40S NEK/MTNS TO L/M50S SLV/CPV. AREAS OF PATCHY
FOG WL STILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACRS THE MTN VALLEYS AND HIR
TRRN THRU 15Z TODAY.

FCST CHALLENGE THRU TODAY WL BE TIMING OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDER...ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED TEMPS. WATER VAPOR SHOWS POTENT 5H
VORT ENTERING THE SLV ATTM...WITH PLENTY OF LIGHTNING ACTIVITY
ACRS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE SLV ATTM. THIS
SYSTEM...ALONG WITH GOOD 850 TO 500MB RH AND PWS VALUES
APPROACHING 1.0"...WHICH IS 200 TO 300% ABOVE NORMAL...WL PRODUCE
A BAND OF MODERATE TO LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL ACRS THE FA TODAY.
USING THE RUC13 AND NAM12 700 TO 500MB UVVS AND RH FIELDS...ALONG
WITH LATEST RADAR TRENDS...WOULD SUPPORT PRECIP BEING ACRS THE SLV
BTWN 06-09Z...DACKS FROM 09Z-12Z...CPV BTWN 12-15Z..AND INTO
EASTERN VT BY 18Z TODAY. GIVEN PLENTY OF LIGHTNING ACTIVITY
UPSTREAM AND SW VALUES BTWN -1 AND -2 TODAY...ALONG WITH SOME WEAK
ELEVATED CAPE VALUES WL CONT TO MENTION ISOLATED THUNDER CHCS THRU
21Z...BUT DECREASE CHCS FROM WEST TO EAST...AS INSTABILITY AXIS
SHIFTS EAST OF OUR CWA. GIVEN...STRONG SFC TO 800MB THETA E
CONVERGENCE AND AXIS OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WITH PWS NEAR
1.0"...WL MENTION POPS NEAR 100%...AS BAND OF MODERATE PRECIP
MOVES ACRS OUR CWA TODAY. AVERAGE QPF VALUES WL RANGE FROM 0.25 TO
0.75"...WITH SOME SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE STRONGER
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS...ESPECIALLY ACRS NNY. TEMPS TODAY WL BE
TRICKY...GIVEN CLOUDS/PRECIP...BUT SOME CLRING SHOULD DEVELOP ACRS
THE SLV/NORTHERN NY BY THIS AFTN. SOUNDINGS SHOW LIMITED MIXING
TODAY...BUT WITH SOME SUN THIS AFTN...FEEL SLV/CPV WL REACH THE
L50S...WITH MID 50S NEAR VSF...WHILE CENTRAL/EASTERN
VT...INCLUDING THE NEK STRUGGLE IN THE 40S. TONIGHT...1028MB HIGH
PRES BUILDS ACRS OUR CWA...WITH CLRING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
THESE CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH LEFTOVER BL MOISTURE FROM PREVIOUS
RAINFALL...WL RESULT IN AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING. NAM SOUNDINGS
SHOW PLENTY OF SFC TO 875MB...EVEN AT BTV...THEREFORE WL MENTION
SOME FOG IN FCST TONIGHT. LOWS WL RANGE FROM THE U20S SLK/MTNS/NEK
TO M/U30S WARMER/WIDER VALLEYS.

.SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT FRIDAY...

RECORD BREAKING TEMPS ANTICIPATED ON SUNDAY AND INTO
NEXT WEEK...

THE RECORD IN BTV ON SUNDAY MARCH 18TH IS 62 SET BACK IN 1945...AND
OUR FCST TEMP AT BTV FOR SUNDAY IS 74F. MEANWHILE...THE RECORD HIGH
AT MPV IS ONLY 58 SET BACK IN 1966...AND WE ARE FORECASTING A HIGH
TEMP OF 72F ON SUNDAY MARCH 18TH. SEE CLIMO SECTION BELOW FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.

MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS ACRS OUR CWA...WHILE SFC HIGH PRES SHIFTS
INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND BY 12Z SUNDAY. THE COMBINATION OF 2 TO 3
STD ABOVE NORMAL HGHT FIELDS AND 925MB TO 850MB TEMPS WL PRODUCE
RECORD BREAKING TEMPS ACRS OUR FA ON SUNDAY. PROGGED 925MB TEMPS
BTWN 12C AND 14C...SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE U60S MTNS TO M70S WARMER
VALLEYS ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...925MB TEMPS ON SATURDAY RANGE BTWN 8C
NEK TO 12C SLV...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE M/U50S NEK/MTNS TO M/U60S
WARMER VALLEYS LOCATIONS. TEMPS WL BE COOLER...MAINLY 50S TO NEAR
60F...ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKE CHAMPLAIN SHORELINE...DUE TO WATER
TEMPS ONLY IN THE 30S. LARGE SUBSIDENCE AND ASSOCIATED DEEP DRY
LAYER WL PROVIDE FA WITH MAINLY CLR SKIES WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
ANTICIPATED. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED BOTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 444 AM EDT FRIDAY...WARMER AND MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. SEE THE CLIMATE
SECTION BELOW FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING
A VERY STRONG HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AT
500 MB WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHILE AT
THE SURFACE A BERMUDA HIGH WILL SET UP WHICH WILL BRING
UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD. MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO LOOK TOO COOL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...SO HAVE GONE AT LEAST 3 TO 6 DEGREES OR MORE ABOVE THIS
GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. GFS MODEL
SHOWING 925 MB TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOWING
TEMPERATURES RUNNING 12C- 15C...WHILE THE ECMWF MODEL IS EVEN
WARMER WITH 925 MB TEMPERATURES RUNNING FROM 14C-18C THROUGH THE
PERIOD. MODELS SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES WITH THE THURSDAY
FORECAST...WITH THE GFS MODEL BRINGING A COLD FRONT SOUTH FROM
CANADA THAT APPROACHES THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER BY EARLY THURSDAY
EVENING. THE GFS MODEL ALSO BREAKS DOWN THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE AT
500 MB RIDGE ON THURSDAY. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE ECMWF MODEL
MAINTAINS A STRONG UPPER RIDGE AT 500 MB ON THURSDAY...AND KEEPS
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT MUCH FURTHER NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL QUEBEC ON
THURSDAY. PREFER THE ECMWF SOLUTION FOR THURSDAY AT THIS TIME
AND WILL GO WITH A DRY AND WARM FORECAST FOR THURSDAY. FEEL
GIVEN THE STRONG HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE AT 500 MB...I FEEL THE GFS
MODEL IS TOO FAST IN TRYING TO BREAK DOWN SUCH A STONG HIGH
AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE.

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION TODAY BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS. HAVE NOT
INCLUDED ANY MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS OR THE USE OF THE CB TERM
FOR CLOUD COVER AT ANY OF THE TAFS SITES AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE
LOW CHANCE THAT A PARTICULAR TERMINAL WILL GET A THUNDERSTORM.
EXPECTING RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED TONIGHT...AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA. LIGHT WINDS AND
CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO AREAS OF FOG FORMING.

OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION.

.CLIMATE...
MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ANTICIPATED...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MANY
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE BROKEN FROM SUNDAY MARCH 18TH THRU
WEDS MARCH 21ST. BELOW IS A LIST OF RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR SUNDAY
MARCH 18TH THRU WEDS MARCH 21ST.

BTV:
MARCH 18TH: 62 (1945)
MARCH 19TH: 60 (1894)
MARCH 20TH: 70 (1903)
MARCH 21ST: 68 (1946)

MPV:
MARCH 18TH: 58 (1966)
MARCH 19TH: 57 (1968
MARCH 20TH: 62 (1976)
MARCH 21ST: 54 (2003)

1V4:
MARCH 18TH: 66 (1927)
MARCH 19TH: 71 (1903)
MARCH 20TH: 75 (1903)
MARCH 21ST: 71 (1903)

MSS:
MARCH 18TH: 66 (1966)
MARCH 19TH: 60 (1986)
MARCH 20TH: 66 (1976)
MARCH 21ST: 62 (1976)

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...RJS/TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH
CLIMATE...TABER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BURLINGTON VT

751 AM EDT FRI MAR 16 2012

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 700 AM EDT FRIDAY...HAVE UPDATED TO REMOVE MENTION OF THUNDER
IN ZONES...AS BEST LIGHTNING ACTIVITY HAS SHIFTED TO OUR SOUTH AND
WEST. A LOCAL WEB CAM HAD A NICE DISPLAY OF IN CLOUD LIGHTNING
LAST NIGHT...PER PICTURE RECEIVED BY OUR LOCAL MEDIA.
OTHERWISE...BAND OF MODERATE RAIN IS ENTERING THE CPV ATTM...AND
WL BE INTO CENTRAL VT BY 14Z...AND THRU EASTERN VT BY 17Z TODAY.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WL RANGE BTWN 0.15 AND 0.30"
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. RADAR STORM TOTAL PRECIP ESTIMATES
SHOW AMOUNTS APPROACHING 1.0" ACRS THE SLV...WHERE NUMEROUS
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED STORMS OCCURRED OVERNIGHT. THIS RAINFALL HAS
SHIFTED EAST AND IS WEAKENING AS STABILITY INCREASES.

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT FRIDAY...

RECORD BREAKING TEMPS ANTICIPATED ON SUNDAY AND INTO
NEXT WEEK...

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 444 AM EDT FRIDAY...WARMER AND MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. SEE THE CLIMATE
SECTION BELOW FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING
A VERY STRONG HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AT
500 MB WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHILE AT
THE SURFACE A BERMUDA HIGH WILL SET UP WHICH WILL BRING
UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD. MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO LOOK TOO COOL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...SO HAVE GONE AT LEAST 3 TO 6 DEGREES OR MORE ABOVE THIS
GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. GFS MODEL
SHOWING 925 MB TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOWING
TEMPERATURES RUNNING 12C- 15C...WHILE THE ECMWF MODEL IS EVEN
WARMER WITH 925 MB TEMPERATURES RUNNING FROM 14C-18C THROUGH THE
PERIOD. MODELS SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES WITH THE THURSDAY
FORECAST...WITH THE GFS MODEL BRINGING A COLD FRONT SOUTH FROM
CANADA THAT APPROACHES THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER BY EARLY THURSDAY
EVENING. THE GFS MODEL ALSO BREAKS DOWN THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE AT
500 MB RIDGE ON THURSDAY. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE ECMWF MODEL
MAINTAINS A STRONG UPPER RIDGE AT 500 MB ON THURSDAY...AND KEEPS
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT MUCH FURTHER NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL QUEBEC ON
THURSDAY. PREFER THE ECMWF SOLUTION FOR THURSDAY AT THIS TIME
...AND WILL GO WITH A DRY AND WARM FORECAST FOR THURSDAY. FEEL
GIVEN THE STRONG HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE AT 500 MB...I FEEL THE GFS
MODEL IS TOO FAST IN TRYING TO BREAK DOWN SUCH A STONG HIGH
AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE.

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION TODAY BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS. HAVE NOT
INCLUDED ANY MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS OR THE USE OF THE CB TERM
FOR CLOUD COVER AT ANY OF THE TAFS SITES AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE
LOW CHANCE THAT A PARTICULAR TERMINAL WILL GET A THUNDERSTORM.
EXPECTING RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED TONIGHT...AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA. LIGHT WINDS AND
CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO AREAS OF FOG FORMING.

OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION.

BTV:
MARCH 18TH: 62 (1945)
MARCH 19TH: 60 (1894)
MARCH 20TH: 70 (1903)
MARCH 21ST: 68 (1946)

MPV:
MARCH 18TH: 58 (1966)
MARCH 19TH: 57 (1968
MARCH 20TH: 62 (1976)
MARCH 21ST: 54 (2003)

1V4:
MARCH 18TH: 66 (1927)
MARCH 19TH: 71 (1903)
MARCH 20TH: 75 (1903)
MARCH 21ST: 71 (1903)

MSS:
MARCH 18TH: 66 (1966)
MARCH 19TH: 60 (1986)
MARCH 20TH: 66 (1976)
MARCH 21ST: 62 (1976)

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH
CLIMATE...TABER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BURLINGTON VT

700 AM EDT FRI MAR 16 2012

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT FRIDAY...

RECORD BREAKING TEMPS ANTICIPATED ON SUNDAY AND INTO
NEXT WEEK...

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION TODAY BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS. HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY
MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS OR THE USE OF THE CB TERM FOR CLOUD COVER
AT ANY OF THE TAFS SITES AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE LOW CHANCE THAT A
PARTICULAR TERMINAL WILL GET A THUNDERSTORM. EXPECTING RAIN SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED
TONIGHT...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA. LIGHT
WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME AREAS OF
FOG FORMING...ESPECIALLY IN THOSE AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL
TODAY.

OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION.

BTV:
MARCH 18TH: 62 (1945)
MARCH 19TH: 60 (1894)
MARCH 20TH: 70 (1903)
MARCH 21ST: 68 (1946)

MPV:
MARCH 18TH: 58 (1966)
MARCH 19TH: 57 (1968
MARCH 20TH: 62 (1976)
MARCH 21ST: 54 (2003)

1V4:
MARCH 18TH: 66 (1927)
MARCH 19TH: 71 (1903)
MARCH 20TH: 75 (1903)
MARCH 21ST: 71 (1903)

MSS:
MARCH 18TH: 66 (1966)
MARCH 19TH: 60 (1986)
MARCH 20TH: 66 (1976)
MARCH 21ST: 62 (1976)

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH
CLIMATE...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BURLINGTON VT

444 AM EDT FRI MAR 16 2012

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT FRIDAY...FCST CHALLENGE THRU TODAY WL BE TIMING OF
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER...ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED TEMPS. WATER
VAPOR SHOWS POTENT 5H VORT ENTERING THE SLV ATTM...WITH PLENTY OF
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY ACRS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE SLV ATTM.
THIS SYSTEM...ALONG WITH GOOD 850 TO 500MB RH AND PWS VALUES
APPROACHING 1.0"...WHICH IS 200 TO 300% ABOVE NORMAL...WL PRODUCE
A BAND OF MODERATE TO LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL ACRS THE FA TODAY.
USING THE RUC13 AND NAM12 700 TO 500MB UVVS AND RH FIELDS...ALONG
WITH LATEST RADAR TRENDS...WOULD SUPPORT PRECIP BEING ACRS THE SLV
BTWN 06-09Z...DACKS FROM 09Z-12Z...CPV BTWN 12-15Z..AND INTO
EASTERN VT BY 18Z TODAY. GIVEN PLENTY OF LIGHTNING ACTIVITY
UPSTREAM AND SW VALUES BTWN -1 AND -2 TODAY...ALONG WITH SOME WEAK
ELEVATED CAPE VALUES WL CONT TO MENTION ISOLATED THUNDER CHCS THRU
21Z...BUT DECREASE CHCS FROM WEST TO EAST...AS INSTABILITY AXIS
SHIFTS EAST OF OUR CWA. GIVEN...STRONG SFC TO 800MB THETA E
CONVERGENCE AND AXIS OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WITH PWS NEAR
1.0"...WL MENTION POPS NEAR 100%...AS BAND OF MODERATE PRECIP
MOVES ACRS OUR CWA TODAY. AVERAGE QPF VALUES WL RANGE FROM 0.25 TO
0.75"...WITH SOME SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE STRONGER
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS...ESPECIALLY ACRS NNY. TEMPS TODAY WL BE
TRICKY...GIVEN CLOUDS/PRECIP...BUT SOME CLRING SHOULD DEVELOP ACRS
THE SLV/NORTHERN NY BY THIS AFTN. SOUNDINGS SHOW LIMITED MIXING
TODAY...BUT WITH SOME SUN THIS AFTN...FEEL SLV/CPV WL REACH THE
L50S...WITH MID 50S NEAR VSF...WHILE CENTRAL/EASTERN
VT...INCLUDING THE NEK STRUGGLE IN THE 40S. TONIGHT...1028MB HIGH
PRES BUILDS ACRS OUR CWA...WITH CLRING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
THESE CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH LEFTOVER BL MOISTURE FROM PREVIOUS
RAINFALL...WL RESULT IN AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING. NAM SOUNDINGS
SHOW PLENTY OF SFC TO 875MB...EVEN AT BTV...THEREFORE WL MENTION
SOME FOG IN FCST TONIGHT. LOWS WL RANGE FROM THE U20S SLK/MTNS/NEK
TO M/U30S WARMER/WIDER VALLEYS.

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT FRIDAY...

RECORD BREAKING TEMPS ANTICIPATED ON SUNDAY AND INTO
NEXT WEEK...

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 444 AM EDT FRIDAY...WARMER AND MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. SEE THE CLIMATE
SECTION BELOW FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING
A VERY STRONG HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AT
500 MB WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHILE AT
THE SURFACE A BERMUDA HIGH WILL SET UP WHICH WILL BRING
UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD. MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO LOOK TOO COOL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...SO HAVE GONE AT LEAST 3 TO 6 DEGREES OR MORE ABOVE THIS
GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. GFS MODEL
SHOWING 925 MB TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOWING
TEMPERATURES RUNNING 12C- 15C...WHILE THE ECMWF MODEL IS EVEN
WARMER WITH 925 MB TEMPERATURES RUNNING FROM 14C-18C THROUGH THE
PERIOD. MODELS SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES WITH THE THURSDAY
FORECAST...WITH THE GFS MODEL BRINGING A COLD FRONT SOUTH FROM
CANADA THAT APPROACHES THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER BY EARLY THURSDAY
EVENING. THE GFS MODEL ALSO BREAKS DOWN THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE AT
500 MB RIDGE ON THURSDAY. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE ECMWF MODEL
MAINTAINS A STRONG UPPER RIDGE AT 500 MB ON THURSDAY...AND KEEPS
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT MUCH FURTHER NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL QUEBEC ON
THURSDAY. PREFER THE ECMWF SOLUTION FOR THURSDAY AT THIS TIME
...AND WILL GO WITH A DRY AND WARM FORECAST FOR THURSDAY. FEEL
GIVEN THE STRONG HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE AT 500 MB...I FEEL THE GFS
MODEL IS TOO FAST IN TRYING TO BREAK DOWN SUCH A STONG HIGH
AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE.

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION TODAY BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
...ALONG WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS. HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY
MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS OR THE USE OF THE CB TERM FOR CLOUD COVER
AT ANY OF THE TAFS SITES AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE LOW CHANCE THAT A
PARTICULAR TERMINAL WILL GET A THUNDERSTORM. EXPECTING RAIN SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED
TONIGHT...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA. LIGHT
WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME AREAS OF
FOG FORMING...ESPECIALLY IN THOSE AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL
TODAY.

OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION.

BTV:
MARCH 18TH: 62 (1945)
MARCH 19TH: 60 (1894)
MARCH 20TH: 70 (1903)
MARCH 21ST: 68 (1946)

MPV:
MARCH 18TH: 58 (1966)
MARCH 19TH: 57 (1968
MARCH 20TH: 62 (1976)
MARCH 21ST: 54 (2003)

1V4:
MARCH 18TH: 66 (1927)
MARCH 19TH: 71 (1903)
MARCH 20TH: 75 (1903)
MARCH 21ST: 71 (1903)

MSS:
MARCH 18TH: 66 (1966)
MARCH 19TH: 60 (1986)
MARCH 20TH: 66 (1976)
MARCH 21ST: 62 (1976)

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH
CLIMATE...TABER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BURLINGTON VT

403 AM EDT FRI MAR 16 2012

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT FRIDAY...

...RECORD BREAKING TEMPS ANTICIPATED ON SUNDAY AND INTO
NEXT WEEK...

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT THURSDAY...MAIN WX FEATURE FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD
WILL BE STRONG SFC RIDGE OFF THE EAST COAST. MDLS DO MEANDER THE
SYSTEM A BIT DURING THE EXTENDED BFR COLLAPSING SOME ON THURSDAY
AS BACKDOOR FRONT SINKS SOUTH. FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WK TROUGH SETS
UP ALONG THE WESTERN PORTION OF RIDGE. ENOUGH INSTABILITY DURING
THE DAY TO WARRANT MENTION OF -RW...BUT WILL HOLD OF MENTION OF
ANY THUNDER ATTM. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MDLS BUILD RIDGE FURTHER
NORTH INTO EASTERN CANADA...CRESTING OVER THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL
KEEP CWA PRECIP-FREE FOR THIS TWO-DAY STRETCH. FINALLY BY
THURSDAY...RIDGE BREAKS DOWN ALLOWING FOR FRONT...WHICH HAS
MEANDERED ALONG THE FRINGE OF NORTHERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE...TO
SINK TOWARDS US. MOVEMENT IS LIMITED DUE TO BLOCKING EFFECTS OF SFC
HIGH...BUT WILL BRING IN CHANCE FOR -RW WITH BEST CHANCES NEAR THE
CANADIAN BORDER. 925 TEMPS RANGING FROM +12C TO ALMOST +16C WILL
MEAN DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 70S THRU PERIOD. HAVE GONE ABOVE MDL
GUIDANCE BY A FEW DEGREES.

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MOVE ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK THROUGH 02Z...ESPECIALLY
NEAR KMSS. OTHERWISE LOOK FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
TO BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA AFTER 06Z TONIGHT AND LAST
THROUGH ABOUT 18Z. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL LOWER INTO THE
MVFR CATEGORY AS A RESULT. SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF AFTER 18Z AND
VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE INTO THE VFR CATEGORY...BUT CEILINGS
WILL REMAIN IN THE MVFR CATEGORY. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL
GENERALLY BE UNDER 15 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AS A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION.

BTV:
MARCH 18TH: 62 (1945)
MARCH 19TH: 60 (1894)
MARCH 20TH: 70 (1903)
MARCH 21ST: 68 (1946)

MPV:
MARCH 18TH: 58 (1966)
MARCH 19TH: 57 (1968
MARCH 20TH: 62 (1976)
MARCH 21ST: 54 (2003)

1V4:
MARCH 18TH: 66 (1927)
MARCH 19TH: 71 (1903)
MARCH 20TH: 75 (1903)
MARCH 21ST: 71 (1903)

MSS:
MARCH 18TH: 66 (1966)
MARCH 19TH: 60 (1986)
MARCH 20TH: 66 (1976)
MARCH 21ST: 62 (1976)

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...EVENSON/JN
CLIMATE...TABER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BUFFALO NY

153 AM EDT FRI MAR 16 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ENDING THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH
SUNSHINE RETURNING AND TEMPERATURES REMAINING WARM IN THE 60S. THERE
WILL BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND CONTINUED WARM FOR SAINT PATRICKS
DAY.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
THROUGH 930 PM...THERE ARE SEVERAL AREAS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE REGION...BUT THEY HAVE YET TO REACH WESTERN
NEW YORK. THIS WILL CHANGE AS AN AXIS OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY
DROPS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 600 AM. THE
AREA OF MOST INTEREST IS CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO.
EXPECT THIS AREA TO SLIDE EASTWARD THROUGH THIS EVENING...LIKELY
EXPANDING TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF LAKE
ONTARIO. AFTER THIS...THE LINE SHOULD LIKELY SLIDE
SOUTHWARD...CROSSING WESTERN NEW YORK DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. FEEL THE HRRR DOES HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS...AS ITS
FORECAST IS IN LINE WITH THE GFS FORECAST MOVEMENT OF THIS
AXIS...WHICH HAS THUS FAR WORKED QUITE WELL. MOST OTHER MODELS
APPEAR QUITE FAR OFF...AND HAVE LARGELY BEEN DISCARDED.

THE MAIN IMPACT OF THIS WILL LIKELY BE SOME HEAVY RAIN IN A FEW
LOCATIONS. DESPITE THE TIMING...EXPECT THE ELEVATED CONVECTION TO
MAINTAIN...WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS A POSSIBILITY EVEN DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE WEAK FLOW AND SLOW MOVEMENT OF THIS
MAY RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...WITH GREATER THAN AN INCH OF
RAIN POSSIBLE IN SPOTS. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WITH THIS
REMAINS MINIMAL...AS THE CONVECTION BECOMES ELEVATED AND LESS
CELLULAR. WIND THREAT IS VIRTUALLY NIL...WITH ONLY A MARGINAL
POSSIBILITY FOR HAIL IF CELLS EXCEED EXPECTATIONS.

OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP VERY LITTLE ONCE HIGH CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS MOVE IN. AFTER THE RAIN...EXPECT THERE WILL BE PATCHY
FOG...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LAKE...AS DEW POINTS INCREASE TO WELL
ABOVE THE LAKE TEMPERATURE.

CONVECTION WILL BE MOVING EASTWARD DURING EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND
SHOULD CLEAR THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MIDDAY THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON. WILL SEE A CLEARING TREND DURING THE
AFTERNOON...BUT MAY BE TOO LATE FOR TEMPS TO CLIMB MUCH MORE THAN
THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S...50S TO LOWER 60S EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO...STILL MUCH ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVERAGE HIGH TEMPS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 40S.

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
BY FRIDAY EVENING A LOW AMPLITUDE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. ANY RAIN SHOULD BE OVER BY EARLY EVENING
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE LOWER LAKES REGION. ON SATURDAY
THIS HIGH WILL BUILD INTO NEW ENGLAND...WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
BOOSTING 925MB TEMPS TO +16C BY THE END OF THE DAY. THIS SHOULD
SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AWAY
FROM THE LAKESHORES. THE SYNOPTIC SCALE FLOW SHOULD STILL BE WEAK
ENOUGH TO ALLOW LOCAL LAKE BREEZES TO FORM DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH
THE PEAK OF DIFFERENTIAL HEATING. ONSHORE BREEZES WILL KEEP AREAS
WITHIN A FEW MILES OF THE LAKES COOLER.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT A VERY WEAK CONVECTIVELY AUGMENTED SHORTWAVE
WILL TRAVERSE THE TOP OF THE BUILDING RIDGE AND SLOWLY CROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER LAKES REGION. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A
PLUME OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY AWAY
FROM THE LAKE SHADOWS. WITH THIS IN MIND HAVE CONTINUED WITH CHANCE
POPS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GIVEN THE RELATIVELY WEAK
FLOW...ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
THIS SHOULD SLOWLY DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...AND ALSO AS THE WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES OVERWHELMED
BY BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND DISSIPATES.

ANY CONVECTION SHOULD BE LATE ENOUGH IN THE DAY AND SCATTERED ENOUGH
IN NATURE TO ALLOW TEMPS TO SOAR ONCE AGAIN WITH MID 70S ACROSS
LOWER ELEVATIONS AND EVEN CLOSE TO 80 ACROSS THE WARMEST SPOTS OF
THE GENESEE VALLEY. ONCE AGAIN THERE SHOULD BE LOCAL LAKE BREEZES
DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH ONSHORE FLOW KEEPING THE LAKESHORES
COOLER.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE BIG STORY IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE THE ONGOING INCREDIBLE WARMTH
WHICH SHOWS NO SIGNS OF ABATING MOST OF NEXT WEEK. THE LONGWAVE
PATTERN WILL STAGNATE ACROSS NORTH AMERICA WITH A VERY DEEP AND SLOW
MOVING TROUGH IN THE WEST...AND A MASSIVE EASTERN RIDGE WHICH WILL
EVOLVE INTO AN OMEGA BLOCK OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER LAKES BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. 850MB TEMPS WILL RUN IN THE +10C TO +12C RANGE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON MOST DAYS...THIS WILL
TRANSLATE INTO HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH THE WARMER SPOTS
OF THE GENESEE VALLEY LIKELY MAKING A RUN AT 80 ON AT LEAST A FEW
DAYS. EXPECT SYNOPTIC FLOW TO BE WEAK ENOUGH ON MOST DAYS TO ALLOW
LOCAL LAKE BREEZES TO FORM...KEEPING THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORES COOLER.

AS FAR AS PRECIP CHANCES GO...FOLLOWING THE WEAK WAVE ON SUNDAY THE
CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD DIRECTLY OVERHEAD
AGAIN...WHICH SHOULD PRODUCE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF
NEXT WEEK. WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND MODEST
INSTABILITY IN PLACE...THERE IS ALWAYS A SMALL CHANCE OF ISOLATED
DIURNAL CONVECTION BENEATH THE RIDGE AXIS...BUT VERY WARM MID LEVEL
TEMPS AND NO SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL KEEP THIS VERY LIMITED. WITH THIS
IN MIND...HAVE JUST CONTINUED THE DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THE INCREDIBLE WARMTH WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF NEXT
WEEK. LONG TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN EVENTUAL BREAKDOWN OF THE
PATTERN BY THE WEEKEND OF MARCH 24TH...EITHER AS THE WESTERN TROUGH
MOVES EAST...OR AS THE RIDGE BUCKLES AND ALLOWS A NORTHERN STREAM
BACKDOOR FRONT INTO NEW ENGLAND.

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT 06Z MAINLY VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...AND ALSO
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER TO START THIS TAF CYCLE. WE WILL FOCUS
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TAFS FOR THE KART AND KJHW TERMINALS AND REMOVE
THE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND GENESEE VALLEY WHERE
SHOWERS ARE MORE LIKELY...THOUGH LEAVE A CB FOR ANY STRAY THUNDER
ACTIVITY.

SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL END ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION BETWEEN 09Z AND
15Z THIS MORNING THOUGH CIGS AND VSBYS MAY FALL TO IFR WITH
DEWPOINTS REMAINING QUITE HIGH ACROSS THE REGION.

UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE CROSSES THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH DRIER
AIR AND CIGS SCATTERING TO VFR THROUGH THE LATER MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HOURS. EXPECT A RETURN TO VFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS
AND REMAINING VFR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS. EXCEPTION
WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER WHERE PATCHY FOG MAY FORM BUT FOR
NOW WILL MAINTAIN THE VFR VSBYS.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY...VFR.
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH CHANCE -TSRA.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR.

.MARINE...
QUIET CONDITIONS ON THE LAKES SHOULD CONTINUE WITH THE COLD LAKE
WATERS STABILIZING WINDS AND WAVES. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
ARE NOT EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MIGHT BE
DURING ANY THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LAKES TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...
DURING WHICH WINDS AND WAVES MAY PRODUCE HAZARDOUS BOATING
CONDITIONS.

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/WCH
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...APFFEL/WCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BINGHAMTON NY

150 AM EDT FRI MAR 16 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
ACCOMPANIED BY SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LINGER ON FRIDAY WITH CONTINUED
UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER... THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE REGION THIS WEEKEND BRINGING DRY WEATHER. UNSEASONABLY WARM
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
930 PM UPDATE...
SURROUNDING RADARS SHOWING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ACTIVITY THIS
EVENING. RUC CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME MODEST MID LEVEL INSTABILITY
OVERNIGHT. WITH UL WAVE PROGGED TO TRACK ACROSS FA, WE WILL KEEP
ISO/CHC THUNDER IN THE FORECAST LATE.

OVERALL WE DECREASED POPS, ESPECIALLY PRIOR TO 6Z. SHOWERS SHOULD
INCREASE TOWARD MORNING.

4 PM UPDATE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG
AND JUST ON THE COLD SIDE OF A BOUNDARY SEPARATING 30S DEW POINTS
OVER EASTERN NY AND NEW ENGLAND FROM 50S DEW POINTS ACROSS WESTERN
NY SOUTHWEST TO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE MAIN CONCENTRATION OF SHOWERS
HAS BEEN OVER ONEIDA COUNTY WHERE STRONGER STORMS HAVE BEEN
ASSOCIATED WITH SOME SMALL HAIL. SPC MESO- ANALYSIS INIDICATES
THAT SFC-BASED CAPE VALUES GREATER THAN 500 J/KG ARE STILL WELL TO
THE WEST OF OUR AREA... HOWEVER SOME MID- LEVEL INSTABILITY EXISTS
ACROSS OUR AREA WITH MID-LVL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7 DEGREES C / KM
PER BUFIT SOUNDINGS. WITH LITTLE LARGE-SCALE FORCING ABOVE THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY EXPECT THAT THESE SHOWERS WILL MOSTLY DISIPATE BY
AROUND SUNSET.

AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS
FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT. LOW-LEVEL STABLE LAYER WILL LIKELY
BE IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT BUT MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE MODERATELY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH NEAR
ZERO SHOWALTER INDICIES INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ELEVATED
THUNDER WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE BEST FORCING LATER TONIGHT OR
FRIDAY MORNING.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WAVE PASSING ACROSS THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ELEVATED THUNDER. THE WAVE
WILL PASS EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH GRADUAL DRYING.
MODELS SOUNDINGS SHOW AN INCREASE IN INSTABILITY FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WITH NAM FORECAST SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES INCREASING TO OVER
1000 J/KG. GFS FORECASTS MUCH LESS INSTABILITY WITH AFTERNOON
CAPES GENEARALLY BELOW 500 J/KG. BASED ON THIS THINK THAT THERE STILL
COULD STILL BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON DESPITE THE UPPER FORCING MOVING AWAY. ENOUGH
DRY AIR SHOULD MOVE IN TO COMPLETELY SHUT DOWN PRECIPITATION
CHANCES BY FRIDAY EVENING.

VERY QUIET... EXTREMELY WARM WEATHER RETURNS AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A DRY DAY ON
SATURDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN
ON SUNDAY MAINLY ACROSS THE WEST AS MOISTURE RETURN BEGINS AROUND
THE WEST SIDE OF THE SURFACE HIGH. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL
RETURN TO THE 70S IN MOST OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LONG RANGE CONTS TO ADVERTISE A HUGE UPR RDG AND TEMPS WELL ABV
NRML...TO NEAR OR ABV RECORD LVLS. OPERATIONAL GFS AND EURO DO
START THE PD WITH A WV ROTATING THRU THE RDG WHICH WILL BRING THE
CHANCE OF SHWRS AND TRWS ON MON. BHD THE WV...RDG POPS BACK INTO
SHAPE WITH H5 HGTS RCHG ABV 580 BY THE END OPF THE PD. WITH THE
RISING HGTS COMES DRYING AND THERE SEEMS TO BE LOW CHANCE OF PCPN
THRU THE END OF THE PD. MOS GUID BNOT DOING WELL WITH THE
UNSEASONABLE WARMTH AND ARE CLOSE TO 10F TOO LOW BY THE END OF THE
PD. IN GNRL...HPC GUID SEEMED RSNBL THRU THE PD...HWVR TEMPS COULD
END UP BEING EVEN WRMR THAN THE FCST DEPENDING ON THE AMT OF SUN.

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAK SFC LOW MOVING ACROSS NEARBY SOUTHERN CANADA WILL PUSH A
WARM FRONT THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY A SFC
TROF AROUND MIDDAY. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS
THE KRME/KSYR TERMINALS AND LESS TO THE SOUTH. MVFR SHOWERS ARE
LIKELY EARLY THIS MORNING PRIMARILY BETWEEN 09Z-14Z. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING BUT NOT
INCLUDED IN TAF DUE TO LIMITED COVERAGE. AFTER THE CONVECTION
PASSES BY MID MORNING MVFR/LOW MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED. SOME MODELS
SUGGEST IFR CIGS BUT NOT FOLLOWED DUE TO NO UPSTREAM HISTORY. ONCE
TROF PASSES 18Z-21Z, CIGS WILL BECOME VFR THEN SCATTER OUT THIS EVENING.

E/SE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING BECOMING S/SW BY MID MORNING AROUND
8-10 KNOTS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST AT 5-10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK...

SAT TO SUN...VFR.

MON TO TUE...GNRL VFR. CHC MVFR SHOWERS MON NGT INTO TUE MRNG.

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...DJP/MSE
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...RRM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON NC

708 AM EDT FRI MAR 16 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT HOLDS OVER THE AREA. A WEAKENED COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT
SOUTH OVER THE CAROLINAS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY BRINGING CLOUDS
AND LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE HOLDING OFFSHORE NEXT WEEK COMBINED WITH AN
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 645 AM FRIDAY...VIA LATEST KLTX AND SURROUNDING 88DS INDICATE
WIDELY SCATTERED -SHRA DEVELOPING AND/OR MOVING ACROSS THE FA. WEAK
S/W TROF ALOFT ADVERTIZED BY THE LATEST RUC MODEL IS CURRENTLY
PUSHING ACROSS THE FA...AND IN CONJUNCTION WITH A WEAK SFC TROF
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS...WIDELY SCATTERED -SHRA WILL CONTINUE
TO AFFECT THE AREA THIS MORNING. A STRONGER S/W UPPER TROF HAVING
CRASHED INTO THE UPPER RIDGE AS IT CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS THE
APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN AND EVENTUALLY SUCCUMB TO
THE UPPER RIDGE. ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO
THE COAST THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH MUCH OF ITS MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF
CLOUDS AND ONLY ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED PCPN. A WEAK BACKDOOR TYPE
COLD FRONT EXTENDING EAST-WEST...WILL DROP SOUTH TODAY WITH MODELS
STALLING IT TONIGHT EITHER ACROSS OR JUST NORTH OF THE ILM CWA
RESPECTIVELY. CONVECTION CHANCES LOOK SLIGHTLY BETTER AHEAD OF THIS
SFC FEATURE THAN EARLIER...AND AS A RESULT WILL INDICATE CHANCE POPS
NORTHERN PORTIONS...DROPPING TO ISOLATED COVERAGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS. THE UPPER RIDGE HOLDING TOUGH ACROSS THE
FA...WILL ACT AS A NEGATIVE FOR PCPN CHANCES. AS FOR MAX/MIN
TEMPS...USED THE HIER MODEL MOS GUIDANCE AND THEN ADDED A FEW
DEGREES...ESPECIALLY CONCERNING TODAYS MAXES. THE SEA BREEZE WILL BE
ACTIVE ONCE AGAIN WITH MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING WINDS ONLY 15 KT OR
LESS THROUGH 300MB. HOWEVER...DONT EXPECT IT TO PUSH AS FAR INLAND
LIKE PREVIOUS DAYS DUE TO CLOUDS AND THREAT FOR PCPN RESULTING IN
MAXES NOT AS HIGH LIKE THE PREVIOUS DAYS.

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE. RIDGE BUILDING
BACK IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS ON SAT BUT WEAKENED COLD FRONT
MAKING ITS WAY SOUTH OVER NORTH CAROLINA. DECENT AMOUNT OF LIFT
AND MOISTURE AHEAD OF FRONT ON SAT AFTN AIDED BY CONVERGENCE ALONG
SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY. THE BEST LIFT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE JUST TO
THE NORTH AND WEST OF LOCAL CWA BUT WINDS THROUGHOUT THE LOW TO
MID LEVELS WILL BE W-NW AND SHOULD STEER ANY SHWRS/TSTMS AND
DEBRIS CLOUDS UPSTREAM TOWARD THE COAST. WILL SEE A GOOD DEAL OF
CLOUDS IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS STREAMING OVER AREA.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH AND WEAKEN BUT SHOULD
REMAIN A FOCAL POINT FOR CONVECTION ALONG WITH THE SEA BREEZE TO
PRODUCE SHWRS/TSTMS AGAIN ON SUNDAY. THE BEST CHC LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL SHIFT SOUTH OVER SOUTH CAROLINA FOR SUNDAY. THIS BOUNDARY
MAY REMAIN IN VICINITY AS IT BEGINS TO DISSIPATE BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM THE ATLANTIC AND ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE NOSING IN FROM THE N-NE BY SUN AFTN. OVERALL WILL SEE A
FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS OVER THE AREA AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AROUND FOR THE WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WELL ABOVE NORMAL. GOOD AMOUNT
OF CLOUDS WILL NOT HELP MUCH TO KEEP AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS FROM
REACHING AROUND 80 DEGREES. THE CLOUDS WILL PREVENT MUCH IN THE
WAY OF RADIATIONAL COOLING AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL BE CLOSE TO
60. THEREFORE EXPECT WARM NIGHTS AND VERY WARM DAYS THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE. MASSIVE UPPER
RIDGE BUILDING UP THE EAST COAST WILL TAKE A WHILE TO BREAK DOWN.
LINGERING MOISTURE AND DECENT SEA BREEZE EACH AFTERNOON WILL
PROVIDE A FOCAL POINT FOR CLOUDS AND CONVECTION BUT HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN THROUGH THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM THE
N-NE AT THE SURFACE WILL ORIENT ITSELF FURTHER OFF SHORE AND WILL
SEE BERMUDA HIGH DOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE CENTER DOES
MIGRATE WESTWARD CLOSER OVERHEAD THROUGH THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO THE WEST TRIES TO MAKE ITS WAY EAST. SHOULD SEE THIS
SYSTEM WEAKEN AS IT COMES UP AGAINST THE STRONG RIDGE. IF IT DOES
MAKE IT INTO THE CAROLINAS IT PROBABLY WILL NOT MAKE IT UNTIL
FRIDAY.

PCP WATER VALUES SPIKE UP A BIT ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY EACH DAY
REACHING AROUND 1.4 INCHES BUT BY MID WEEK...WED INTO THURS...GFS
SHOWING A DRY PUNCH COMING IN FROM THE EAST WITH PCP WATER VALUES
DROPPING DOWN TO AROUND A HALF INCH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK
INTO AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC. THEREFORE SHWRS/TSTMS TO DROP OUT OF
THE FORECAST BY MID WEEK. LOOKS LIKE EVENTUALLY THIS DRY AIR WILL
GET ERODED AWAY BUT PROBABLY NOT UNTIL FRIDAY WHEN MOIST SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

OVERALL TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 BUT WILL TAKE
A SLIGHT DIP MID WEEK AS DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE EAST WILL
ALLOW DEWPOINT TEMPS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS TO DROP SEVERAL DEGREES
CLOSER TO THE LOWER END OF 50 RATHER THAN NEAR 60. THIS WILL KEEP
THE DIURNAL RISE IN TEMPS FROM REACHING AS HIGH...BUT STILL
EXPECTING TEMPS INTO THE 70S.

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...MODERATE UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION TODAY. ATMOSPHERE IS REASONABLY JUICY FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...HOWEVER THERE IS NOT MUCH OF A TRIGGER. THE GFS IN PARTICULAR
IS NOT VERY ENTHUSED...WITH ONLY 20 POPS FOR TODAY. THE NAM IS A BIT
MORE PESSIMISTIC. A LOT WILL DEPEND ON THE SOLAR INSOLATION TODAY.
IF WE GET INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80...THINGS WILL PROBABLY POP.
TONIGHT...DIMINISHING CONVECTION WITH SOME LIGHT FOG EXPECTED.
DEBRIS FROM CONVECTION COULD INHIBIT FOG FORMATION. LIGHT SOUTHWEST
FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. MORNING FOG POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS. VFR TUESDAY.

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 645 AM FRIDAY...RIDGING FROM THE SFC HIGH CENTERED WELL
OFFSHORE AND EAST OF THE ILM WATERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE
NEAR TERM. THE RIDGING WILL DEPRESS SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH AS A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH...WITH IT POSSIBLY REACHING THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS TONIGHT BEFORE STALLING. THE SFC PRESSURE PATTERN
PROVIDES A S-SW WIND THROUGHOUT THE NEAR TERM. THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT REMAINS QUITE RELAXED...YIELDING WIND SPEEDS 10 KT OR
LESS...EXCEPT COULD OBSERVE A BRIEF PERIOD OF 10-15 KT NEAR SHORE
FROM A MODEST SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. AN ESE 2 FOOT GROUND SWELL AT 8-10 SECOND PERIODS WILL
COMBINE WITH A 1-2 FOOT 4 SECOND PERIOD WIND WAVE. THIS WILL PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT SEAS AT 2 TO 3 FT THROUGHOUT THE NEAR TERM.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...RATHER BENIGN SEAS WILL CONTINUE IN A LIGHT TO
MODERATE RETURN FLOW AROUND HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE
ATLANTIC. WILL SEE SLIGHT VEERING TO THE W-SW SOME VARYING WINDS
AS WEAKENED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTS SOUTH OVER THE WATERS LATE SAT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY BUT OVERALL WILL MAINTAIN S-SW WINDS AROUND 10
TO 15 KTS A LITTLE HIGHER TO START IN TIGHTER GRADIENT FLOW AS
COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON FRI. WINDS WILL WEAKEN HEADING INTO
SUNDAY. OVERALL SEAS WILL BE AROUND 2 TO 4 TO START BUT WILL
REMAIN 2 TO 3 FT THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...WITHOUT ANY OTHER SYSTEMS MOVING IN...THE
GRADIENT WILL BE ALLOWED TO RELAX THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES UP THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE. SEAS WILL ACTUALLY
DECREASE A BIT MORE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...LEAVING MOST WATERS
LESS THAN 3 FT BY LATE MON INTO TUESDAY. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
WILL DOMINATE AS BERMUDA HIGH DOMINATES THE WEATHER. WINDS WILL BE
LESS THAN 10 KTS WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE WITH THE SEA BREEZE EACH
AFTERNOON AS LAND AREAS WARM CLOSE TO 80.

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...43

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON NC

655 AM EDT FRI MAR 16 2012

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 645 AM FRIDAY...VIA LATEST KLTX AND SURROUNDING 88DS
...INDICATE WIDELY SCATTERED -SHRA DEVELOPING AND/OR MOVING ACROSS
THE FA. WEAK S/W TROF ALOFT ADVERTIZED BY THE LATEST RUC MODEL IS
CURRENTLY PUSHING ACROSS THE FA...AND IN CONJUNCTION WITH A WEAK SFC
TROF ACROSS THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS...WIDELY SCATTERED -SHRA WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA THIS MORNING. A STRONGER S/W UPPER TROF
HAVING CRASHED INTO THE UPPER RIDGE AS IT CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS
THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN AND EVENTUALLY
SUCCUMB TO THE UPPER RIDGE. ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
TRACK TO THE COAST THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH MUCH OF ITS MOISTURE IN
THE FORM OF CLOUDS AND ONLY ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED PCPN.
A WEAK BACKDOOR TYPE COLD FRONT EXTENDING EAST-WEST...WILL DROP
SOUTH TODAY WITH MODELS STALLING IT TONIGHT EITHER ACROSS OR JUST
NORTH OF THE ILM CWA RESPECTIVELY. CONVECTION CHANCES LOOK SLIGHTLY
BETTER AHEAD OF THIS SFC FEATURE THAN EARLIER...AND AS A RESULT WILL
INDICATE CHANCE POPS NORTHERN PORTIONS...DROPPING TO ISOLATED
COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS. THE UPPER RIDGE HOLDING TOUGH
ACROSS THE FA...WILL ACT AS A NEGATIVE FOR PCPN CHANCES. AS FOR
MAX/MIN TEMPS...USED THE HIER MODEL MOS GUIDANCE AND THEN ADDED A
FEW DEGREES...ESPECIALLY CONCERNING TODAYS MAXES. THE SEA BREEZE
WILL BE ACTIVE ONCE AGAIN WITH MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING WINDS ONLY
15 KT OR LESS THROUGH 300MB. HOWEVER...DONT EXPECT IT TO PUSH AS FAR
INLAND LIKE PREVIOUS DAYS DUE TO CLOUDS AND THREAT FOR PCPN
RESULTING IN MAXES NOT AS HIGH LIKE THE PREVIOUS DAYS.

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...VFR TO DOMINATE THE VALID ISSUANCE PERIOD...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF MVFR/IFR FOG CONDITIONS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY IS QUIET ACROSS OUR AREA WITH ACTIVITY
TRACKING EAST FROM THE WESTERN CAROLINAS BASICALLY DISSIPATING BY
THE TIME IT REACHES THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. AS A RESULT WILL REMOVE
PCPN THREAT FROM THE PRE-DAWN HRS. GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. GUIDANCE HINTING AT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPMENT. ONCE
THE MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS SCOURS OUT SOME...FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL
BECOME A REALITY. HAVE OPTED FOR TEMPO GROUPING WITH MVFR/IFR FOG AT
ALL TERMINALS...WITH THE WORST FOG CONDITIONS AFFECTING THE LOCAL
TERMINALS IN A 3-4 HR WINDOW SURROUNDING DAYBREAK. BY MIDDAY AND
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE ISSUANCE PERIOD INTO TONIGHT...ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WILL BE ADVERTISED. FOR NOW...HAVE INCLUDED
VICINITY WORDING FOR CONVECTION AT ALL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE
VALID ISSUANCE PERIOD. ANTICIPATE SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH WINDS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS AOB 12 KTS BY
AFTERNOON...SUBSIDING TO NEAR 6 KTS TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD.
ANOTHER ACTIVE SEA BREEZE BUT NOT NEARLY AS IMPRESSIVE LIKE THE PAST
FEW DAYS DUE TO CLOUDINESS AND THREAT OF PCPN HOLDING MAX TEMPS
DOWN.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. MORNING FOG POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS. VFR TUESDAY.

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...DCH/SGL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CLEVELAND OH

956 PM EDT SAT MAR 17 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
THE SNEAK PEAK AT SUMMER LIKE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE FINAL
FEW DAYS OF WINTER ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES.
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC AND NEW
ENGLAND COAST WILL CONTINUE TO FORCE WARM AIR INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH NO COOL DOWN IN SIGHT EVEN THROUGH NEXT
WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
THE FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS WAS WEAKENING. THE NEXT ROUND WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA LATE TONIGHT. DEBATED ABOUT WHETHER THUNDER COULD BE REMOVED.
THIS NEXT SYSTEM HAS A LITTLE MORE DYNAMICS SO EXPECTING THAT SOME
THUNDER COULD OCCUR. THE 18Z GFS BACKS OFF ON THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS FOR NE OH AND NW PA. HOWEVER...THE 00Z RUC HAS SOME QPF ON
THE OH AND PA BORDER AROUND 12Z SUNDAY. BACKED OFF ON THE POPS
OVER NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PA UNTIL WELL AFTER
MIDNIGHT...BUT CONTINUED THE THREAT. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
TO THE LOWS.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
WILL HAVE A MIX OF HIGH CHANCE AND LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE REGION
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY AS THE DISTURBANCE ALOFT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIP IN THE AREA...EXPECT
TEMPS A BIT LOWER THAN TODAY BUT STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL. MODELS
MOVE THIS EAST SUNDAY NIGHT BUILDING A RATHER SHARP RIDGE ALOFT
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES MONDAY. WILL HAVE A SLIGHT
CHANCE POP FAR EAST TO START WITH ON MONDAY MORNING BUT GIVEN THE
STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE WILL GO DRY FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY. NO
CHANGE FOR TUESDAY OTHER THAN THE UPPER HIGH BROADENS AND BUILDS
FURTHER WITH HEIGHTS REACHING 582DM OVER THE EASTERN LAKES. EXPECT
DAYTIME HIGHS 75 TO 80 AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
NEAR 60.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WILL FEATURE A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW
CROSSING THE OHIO VALLEY. WHILE THERE IS STILL SOME VARIABILITY WITH
ITS TIMING...IT LOOKS TO SETTLE ON BEING OVERHEAD FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ENTER THE FORECAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THIS FAR OUT HAVE NOT TARGETED
ANY LIKELY OR CATEGORICAL POPS...BUT KEPT IT AT HIGH CHANCE. GFS
STEADILY MOVES THE UPPER LOW ACROSS AND BUILDS IN HIGH PRESSURE BY
LATER SATURDAY...ABOUT A HALF DAY TO DAY SOONER THAN THE PREVIOUS
RUN AND STILL A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE ECMWF...SO DETAILS STILL TO
BE WORKED OUT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. NO COLD AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW...THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL JUST
KEEP US COOLER THAN WHAT WE HAVE BEEN AND WILL FORECAST HIGHS
SATURDAY IN THE 50S.

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM MODELS SEEM TO INDICATE BAND OF SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA FROM
NEAR DFI SE TO NEAR ZZV WILL DISSIPATE NEXT HOUR OR TWO BEFORE
GETTING MUCH FURTHER NORTH AND AFFECTING ANY TAF SITES OTHER THAN
FDY. MOISTURE FLOWING IN FROM THE SOUTH SHOULD LEAD TO A FAIR AMOUNT
OF CLOUDS FROM ABOUT 5K FT TO 10K FT TONIGHT SPREADING NNE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA. SHOULD SEE SOME MVFR FOG FORM SECOND HALF OF THE
NIGHT BUT THE INCREASING CLOUDS SHOULD HELP TO LIMIT FOG FROM
GETTING MUCH THICKER.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WORKS NE INTO WESTERN OH BY 12Z AND THIS MAY
PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING FOR SCT SHRA AND POSSIBLE TSRA TO SPREAD NE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE TAF AREA THE LATTER PART OF THE NIGHT THROUGH SUN
MORNING BUT THE PROBLEM IS THAT THIS TIME OF NIGHT IS NOT GENERALLY
FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION TO EXIST UNLESS VERY STRONG DYNAMICS ARE
TAKING PLACE AND JUST NOT SURE THIS WILL BE THE CASE. THUS...AM
INCLINED TO ONLY MENTION VCSH OR VCTS TO COVER THIS FOR NOW AND WAIT
TO SEE HOW MUCH CONVECTION TRIES TO HANG AROUND FURTHER INTO THE
NIGHT...THEN UPDATE ACCORDINGLY IF NEEDED.

A GOOD THREAT FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL BE THROUGHOUT THE AREA ALL DAY SUN
AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD TO HELP DESTABILIZE THE
ATMOSPHERE. OUTSIDE OF LOWER CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIER RAIN...VFR
SHOULD PREVAIL MOST OF THE TIME.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY EVENING AND LATE
THURSDAY OUTSIDE OF EARLY MORNING BR EACH MORNING.

.MARINE...
LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES FOR THE LAKE FROM TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH LOCAL ONSHORE BREEZES FOR THE EAST NEARSHORE POSSIBLE.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALSO POSSIBLE THIS WEEK. AN
UPPER LOW MOVES TO THE OHIO VALLEY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...OUDEMAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON OH

949 PM EDT SAT MAR 17 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE EAST COAST...A SOUTHERLY FLOW
AROUND THE HIGH WILL ALLOW AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AIRMASS TO PERSIST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE
INTERACTING WITH THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE FLOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
WILL BECOME ANTICYCLONIC AND WARMER AIR WILL MOVE IN ALOFT ON
MONDAY WHICH WILL BRING AN END TO THE THUNDERSTORMS.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
DIFFICULT NEAR TERM FORECAST AS MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING THE WEAK
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WELL ALONG WITH THE CONVECTION THAT THEY
ARE PRODUCING. HAVE BASED THE UPDATE ON THE LATEST MOSAIC RADAR
AND HRRR WHICH SUGGEST THAT THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS
OVERNIGHT WILL BE ACRS THE SRN ZONES. HAVE PLACED LIKELY POPS HERE
AND THEN TAPER POPS OFF TO THE N AND NE. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
OVERNIGHT AND WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S...LOWS WILL
LIKELY SETTLE IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S AS WELL...WHICH ARE HIGHER
THAN NORMAL HIGHS THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY PERSIST ON SUNDAY AS AN
EMBEDDED S/WV CRAWLS EAST ACRS THE REGION AND INSTABILITY LINGERS
INTO THE AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED DUE TO MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND RATHER WEAK WIND
FIELDS...THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT LARGE HAIL WITH WBZ HEIGHTS AROUND
9 KFT.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE SHORT
WAVE LIFTS NORTH AND AN UPPER RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD IN. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY MONDAY EVENING AS THE UPPER RIDGE BECOMES
ESTABLISHED AND A CYCLONIC FLOW DEVELOPS IN LOWER LEVELS.

TEMPERATURES WILL STAY MORE THAN 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD. HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S ON SUNDAY AND
AROUND 80 ON MONDAY WILL BE FLIRTING WITH RECORD HIGHS AT OUR 3
CLIMATE SITES AT CINCINNATI...COLUMBUS AND DAYTON.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WITH A TROF OVER THE
WEST AND A LARGE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS RIDGE
WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER AND MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. FOR
TUESDAY HAVE FCST HIGHS FROM NEAR 80 NORTH TO THE LOWER 80S SOUTH.
RECORD HIGHS WILL BE IN JEOPARDY OF FALLING. TUESDAYS RECORD HIGHS
ARE CVG 82, DAY 79 AND CMH 78.

THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST COAST ON
WEDNESDAY WITH THE UPPER TROF MOVING INTO THE NATIONS MID SECTION.
GIVEN THE HIGH DEGREE OF AMPLIFICATION...PREFER THE SLOWER ECMWF
SOLN...KEEPING THE REGION DRY ON WED. EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 70S NORTH TO 80 SOUTH. AGAIN RECORDS WILL BE IN JEOPARDY WITH
WEDNESDAY RECORDS STANDING AT 79 FOR CVG, 78 FOR DAY AND 80 AT
CMH.

UPPER LEVEL LOW TO PUSH SLOWLY EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
THURSDAY/FRIDAY. NUMERICAL MODELS GENERALLY SIMILAR WITH THE CENTER
OF THE LOW CLOSE TO CVG BY FRIDAY EVENING. WILL INTRODUCE LOW POPS
INTO THE SW LATE WED NIGHT AND THEN SPREAD THIS CHC NE ACRS THE FA
THURSDAY. WL BUMP POPS UP TO HIGH CHC LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY
FRIDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY. UNDER CONTD
INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LOW...WL CONTINUE LOW POPS INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

HAVE TRENDED THURSDAYS AND FRIDAYS HIGHS A LTL ABOVE GUID BUT OPTED
TO GO COOLER ON SATURDAY FOLLOWING ECMWF SOLN WHICH BRINGS IN COLDER
AIR.

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
REGION CONTINUES TO BE LOCATED ON THE BACK SIDE OF A MID LVL RIDGE
AXIS WHICH STRETCHES FROM THE GULF COAST NE INTO NEW ENGLAND.
WEATHER PATTERN IS COMPARABLE TO A LATE SPRING OR EARLY SUMMER
REGIME WITH EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES MOVING NE ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE RIDGE AXIS AND CONSEQUENTLY TRIGGERING AREAS OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS IN THE MOIST...UNSTABLE AIR. MODELS USUALLY HAVE A HARD
TIME ON PLACEMENT...TIMING AND COVERAGE OF STORMS AND TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WILL BE NO DIFFERENT. HAVE OPTED TO TRY AND PINPOINT THE
VERY SHORT TERM AND BROAD BRUSH THE LONG TERM BEYOND 6 HOURS GIVEN
LOW CONFIDENCE. WITH THAT SAID...MOSAIC RADAR WAS SHOWING A BROKEN
LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHING FROM SRN INDIANA INTO
NORTHERN KENTUCKY NEAR KSDF. HRRR MODEL AND RADAR MOVEMENT SUGGEST
THAT THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MAKE IT NEAR KCVG AND KLUK BETWEEN 02Z
AND 03Z AS LONG AS IT DOES NOT FALL APART. HAVE PLACED A VCTS AND
CB IN KCVG AND KLUK IN REGARDS TO THIS POTENTIAL ACTIVITY.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...ALL EYES FOCUS ON A MAIN
DISTURBANCE LOCATED TO THE WEST OVER MISSOURI/ILLINOIS. THIS
FEATURE IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY ROTATE ENE THROUGH THE AREA ON
SUNDAY. POTENTIAL EXITS FOR SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER AS IT
MOVES THROUGH. FOR NOW...HAVE PLACED VFR SHOWERS IN THE TAFS IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE BEST FORCING...KNOWING THAT LOCAL MVFR OR
EVEN ISOLATED IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
STORMS. GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE ON THUNDER COVERAGE...VCTS/CB HAVE
BEEN LEFT OUT ATTM.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY EVENING AND AGAIN ON
THURSDAY.

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO/HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO/HICKMAN
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HICKMAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

328 PM EDT FRI MAR 16 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SAG THROUGH THE REGION TODAY...BRINGING
A SLIGHT COOL DOWN BEFORE WARM WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A WEAK WARM FRONT PRETTY MUCH BISECTS THE FCST AREA...DOG LEGGING
FROM JUST EAST OF BRADFORD AND STATE COLLEGE DOWN WEST OF
HARRISBURG AND YORK. IT SHOWS UP QUITE WELL IN THE ANALYZED LI
FIELDS. SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT IT MAY NOT MOVE MUCH
TODAY BEFORE FINALLY BEING SCOURED OUT BY A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT LATER TODAY. THAT BACK DOOR FRONT IS JUST NOW BEGINNING TO
EDGE INTO NWRN PA WHERE WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE WEST.

LATEST HIGH RES ARW AND HRRR SHOW THAT THE REST OF THE DAY INTO
THE EVENING ONLY SEE A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS OR STORMS POP UP.
MESO ANAL INDICATES WE ARE DEVELOPING A SMALL MEASURE OF
INSTABILITY...AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE MORE THAN 6C/KM OVER
THE WHOLE AREA...BUT DESPITE THIS THE FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW
INCREASING AMOUNTS OF DRY AIR CREEPING IN ALOFT...ACTING AS A
STRENGTHENING CAP.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
THE SFC HIGH IS FCST TO QUICKLY SETTLE DOWN OFF THE MID ATL COAST
WHICH TURNS OUR GRADIENT WINDS SOUTHERLY. WE COULD START OUT WITH
A FAIR AMOUNT OF LOW CLOUDS AND EVEN SOME FOG...BUT STRONG LATE
MARCH SUN AND MIXING SHOULD BRING A MUCH BRIGHTER AFTERNOON. FCST
SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY DRY PROFILES BY MID DAY SUPPORTING THE IDEA OF
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND STRONG HEATING. HIGHS WILL AVERAGE IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE FCST AREA.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE EXTENSIVE RIDGING
ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH NEXT WEEK. A SHORTWAVE IS
PROGGED TO TOP THE RIDGE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...AND COULD BRING
A CHC OF SHRA/TSRA TO THE AREA.

OTHERWISE...THE UNSEASONABLY WARM AND GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL
PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEK. ONE PROVERBIAL FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS
THE POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF EASTERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OFF THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH COULD HOLD TEMPS DOWN
ACROSS EASTERN PA. KEPT WARM TEMPS IN THE FCST...BUT THIS MAY
BEAR WATCHING.

AFTER THE SHORTWAVE EXITS THE REGION MONDAY...THE NEXT DECENT CHC
AT PRECIP WILL NOT COME UNTIL THE END OF THE WEEK WHEN A CLOSED
UPPER-LEVEL LOW APPROACHES FROM THE MIDWEST. TIMING OF THIS FEATURE
IS UNCERTAIN...BUT INTRODUCED 30 PERCENT POPS FOR FRIDAY....WHICH
IS NEAR OR EVEN A BIT BELOW CLIMO FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE BACK DOOR FRONT CONTINUES TO HANG STUBBORNLY OVER EASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA KEEPING LOW CLOUDS LOCKED IN OVER MUCH OF THE SUSQ
VALLEY. LATEST VIZ SATELLITE SHOTS SHOW THAT SOME MIXING IS
FINALLY BEGINNING TO ERODE THE CLOUDS WITH THE IMPROVEMENT TAKING
PLACE FROM JUST WEST OF IPT DOWN THRU THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. THE
STATIONS STARTING OFF MVFR SHUD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY IMPROVE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING BY EVENING.

THE OVERNIGHT WILL SEE A BIT OF FOG DEVELOP BRINGING VIZ DOWN TO
THE 1-3 MILE RANGE AT MOST SITES. THE SLIGHTLY MORE MOIST SERN
AREAS LIKE MDT/LNS COULD SEE VIZ DIP UNDER A MILE. ALL TERMINALS
WILL BURN OFF SMARTLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH A BRIGHT SUNNY DAY
EXPECTED AT ALL LOCATIONS BY MID DAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUN-TUE...VFR...WITH BRIEF REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCT
SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS.

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...EVANEGO
AVIATION...LA CORTE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

132 PM EDT FRI MAR 16 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SAG THROUGH THE REGION TODAY...BRINGING
A SLIGHT COOL DOWN BEFORE WARM WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

A WEAK WARM FRONT PRETTY MUCH BISECTS THE FCST AREA...DOG LEGGING
FROM JUST EAST OF BRADFORD AND STATE COLLEGE DOWN WEST OF
HARRISBURG AND YORK. IT SHOWS UP QUITE WELL IN THE ANALYZED LI
FIELDS. SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT IT MAY NOT MOVE MUCH
TODAY BEFORE FINALLY BEING SCOURED OUT BY A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT LATER TODAY. THAT BACK DOOR FRONT IS JUST NOW BEGINNING TO
EDGE INTO NWRN PA WHERE WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE WEST.

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...

THE SFC HIGH IS FCST TO QUICKLY SETTLE DOWN OFF THE MID ATL COAST
WHICH TURNS OUR GRADIENT WINDS SOUTHERLY. WE COULD START OUT WITH
A FAIR AMOUNT OF LOW CLOUDS AND EVEN SOME FOG...BUT STRONG LATE
MARCH SUN AND MIXING SHOULD BRING A MUCH BRIGHTER AFTERNOON. FCST
SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY DRY PROFILES BY MID DAY SUPPORTING THE IDEA OF
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND STRONG HEATING. HIGHS WILL AVERAGE IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE FCST AREA.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LONG WAVE PATTERN SHOWS STRONG RIDGING ACROSS EASTERN US THROUGH
THE EXTENDED. SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH SHORTWAVE TRACKING THROUGH THE
RIDGE LATE SUNDAY AND OVERNIGHT. INCREASED POPS WITH THIS FEATURE.
OTHERWISE...MAJORITY OF THE EXTENDED LOOKS DRY WITH TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING TO BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. LATE IN THE EXTENDED WILL
HAVE TO WATCH WHAT CUTOFF LOW IN CENTRAL US DOES...BUT FOR NOW
MAJORITY OF SOLUTIONS HAVE IT STAYING WEST OF HERE SUPPORTING THE
WARM TEMPERATURES WE ARE FORECASTING.

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

THE BACK DOOR FRONT CONTINUES TO HANG STUBBORNLY OVER EASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA KEEPING LOW CLOUDS LOCKED IN OVER MUCH OF THE SUSQ
VALLEY. LATEST VIZ SATELLITE SHOTS SHOW THAT SOME MIXING IS
FINALLY BEGINNING TO ERODE THE CLOUDS WITH THE IMPROVEMENT TAKING
PLACE FROM JUST WEST OF IPT DOWN THRU THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. THE
STATIONS STARTING OFF MVFR SHUD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY IMPROVE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING BY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

SUN-TUE...VFR...WITH BRIEF REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCT
SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS.

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...ROSS
AVIATION...LA CORTE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

1008 AM EDT FRI MAR 16 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SAG THROUGH THE REGION TODAY...BRINGING
A SLIGHT COOL DOWN BEFORE WARM WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

LATEST HIGH RES ARW AND HRRR SHOW THAT THE AREA OF SHOWERS GOING
THROUGH NOW WILL CONTINUE EAST AND DISSIPATE...WITH JUST WIDELY
SCATTERED ACTIVITY BECOMING POSSIBLE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

WILL BE ANOTHER MILD DAY...BUT SEVERAL DEG COOLER THAN YESTERDAY
WITH THE CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND THE REGION.
OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LI`S REMAIN NEAR ZERO TODAY SO
CANNOT RULE OUT THE RUMBLE OF THUNDER AS WELL.

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED EAST OF PA WILL BRING ANOTHER WARM AND DRY
DAY TO THE CWA. 850MB TEMPERATURES SUPPORT ANOTHER DAY WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO MIDDLE 70S UNDER ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE. AMAZING WEATHER FOR MID MARCH...A GOOD 20 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LONG WAVE PATTERN SHOWS STRONG RIDGING ACROSS EASTERN US THROUGH
THE EXTENDED. SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH SHORTWAVE TRACKING THROUGH THE
RIDGE LATE SUNDAY AND OVERNIGHT. INCREASED POPS WITH THIS FEATURE.
OTHERWISE...MAJORITY OF THE EXTENDED LOOKS DRY WITH TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING TO BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. LATE IN THE EXTENDED WILL
HAVE TO WATCH WHAT CUTOFF LOW IN CENTRAL US DOES...BUT FOR NOW
MAJORITY OF SOLUTIONS HAVE IT STAYING WEST OF HERE SUPPORTING THE
WARM TEMPERATURES WE ARE FORECASTING.

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

FRONT OVER EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA KEEPING LOW CLOUDS LOCKED IN OVER
MUCH OF THE SUSQ VALLEY. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR TO CONTINUE
THROUGH LATE MORNING BEFORE SLOW IMPROVEMENT BEGINS.

OUTLOOK...

SAT-TUE...VFR...WITH BRIEF REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCT
SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS.

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...ROSS/CERU
LONG TERM...ROSS
AVIATION...LA CORTE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

814 AM EDT FRI MAR 16 2012

.SYNOPSIS...

A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SAG THROUGH THE REGION TODAY...BRINGING
A SLIGHT COOL DOWN BEFORE WARM WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE VERY WARM.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

A WEAK WARM FRONT DOG LEGS FROM JUST EAST OF BRADFORD AND STATE
COLLEGE DOWN WEST OF HARRISBURG AND YORK. IT SHOWS UP QUITE WELL
IN THE ANALYZED LI FIELDS. SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT IT
MAY NOT MOVE MUCH TODAY BEFORE FINALLY BEING SCOURED OUT BY A WEAK
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT LATER TODAY.

LATEST HIGH RES ARW AND HRRR SHOW THAT THE AREA OF SHOWERS GOING
THROUGH NOW WILL CONTINUE EAST AND DISSIPATE...WITH JUST WIDELY
SCATTERED ACTIVITY BECOMING POSSIBLE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

FRONT OVER EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA KEEPING LOW CLOUDS LOCKED IN OVER
MUCH OF THE SUSQ VALLEY. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR TO CONTINUE
THROUGH LATE MORNING BEFORE SLOW IMPROVEMENT BEGINS.

OUTLOOK...

SAT-TUE...VFR...WITH BRIEF REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCT
SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS.

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROSS/LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/CERU
SHORT TERM...ROSS/CERU
LONG TERM...ROSS
AVIATION...CERU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LUBBOCK TX

358 PM CDT FRI MAR 16 2012

.SHORT TERM...
THE FORECAST AND SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS ARE PROGRESSING AS
EXPECTED FROM THIS MORNINGS UPDATE. LATEST RUC ANALYSIS INDICATES
3500 J/KG OF SURFACE INSTABILITY NOSING INTO THE AREA WITH AREAS
OF HIGH THETA-E AIR AND NO SURFACE BASED CIN. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
CONTINUES TO INCREASE OVER THE AREA WITH ABOUT 30KT OBSERVED.
ADDITIONALLY...A LARGE AREA OF ACCAS HAS BEEN OBSERVED SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST OF THE LUBBOCK AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO EXPECT AN
INITIATION TIME AFTER 21Z. THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT REMAINS AS
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. DESPITE SUPERCELLULAR STRUCTURE
EXPECTED WITH STORMS...TORNADOES ARE NOT AS LIKELY DUE TO THE VERY
WEAK LOW LEVEL SHEAR.

FOG IS AGAIN EXPECTED TONIGHT AND COULD BECOME DENSE AGAIN ON THE
CAPROCK. THE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO MIX FURTHER EAST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THE CAP IS PROGGED TO BE NEARLY ZERO OFF THE CAPROCK
WITH VERY STRONG SURFACED BASED CAPE IN EXCESS OF 3 KJ/KG.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A LACK OF LARGE SCALE LIFT TOMORROW
AFTERNOON WITH ONLY WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE.
WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE GOING FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON GIVEN
THESE PARAMETERS IN PLACE. JDV

.LONG TERM...
ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE LOOKS TO MOVE OVER THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING BUT POINT SOUNDINGS SHOW A PRETTY
STRONG CAP IN PLACE THAT MAY LIMIT STORM CHANCES SOMEWHAT. CHANCES
FOR STORMS...A FEW ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLY SEVERE...LOOKS TO BE BETTER
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AS A COMBINATION OF THE APPROACH
OF THE MAIN LOW...INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND CURVED LOW-LEVEL
HODOGRAPH...AND INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE THANKS
TO A LOW-LEVEL JET ALL CONTRIBUTE TO DECENT INSTABILITY LEVELS.
DID INCREASE POPS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AS THE
DRYLINE/PACIFIC FRONT HELPS TO FOCUS SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND THEN
CLEAR PRECIPITATION OUT FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE MORNING.

OTHER CONCERN WITH THE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES OUT ACROSS THE AREA WILL
BE FIRE WEATHER FOR MONDAY. SEE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION SECTION
FOR MORE DETAILS. DRY AIR WILL RAPIDLY SWEEP IN ON A BREEZY TO
WINDY WESTERLY WIND DURING THE DAY MONDAY. MODELS HAVE COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT ON DEVELOPING THE TROF INTO A CLOSED LOW AND
TAKING IT FURTHER EAST RATHER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS KEEPING IT CLOSER
TO THE FORECAST AREA. FORECAST PARAMETERS WILL DEPEND ON WHETHER
WE WILL HAVE WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING OR ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA.
DRY AIR WILL SLOWLY MODIFY AT THE SURFACE THROUGH THE END OF NEXT
WEEK WHICH WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY. HOWEVER...FOCUS IS ON
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS SO MOST OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST WAS NOT CHANGED.

JORDAN

.FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED TO LOW END CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE
LIKELY SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS. A
SURFACE TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN SATURDAY AFTERNOON LEADING TO GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS ON THE WEST SIDE OF A DRYLINE. THIS DRYLINE WILL
MOVE TO THE EDGE OF THE CAPROCK TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH VERY DRY
AIR TO THE WEST OF THIS FEATURE. GUSTY WINDS COMBINED WITH VERY
WARM TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO THE ELEVATED OR LOW END CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. ANOTHER MORE WIDESPREAD FIRE WEATHER
EVENT WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY AS STRONG WESTERLY WINDS AND DRY
AIR PUSH INTO THE REGION BEHIND A DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 46 84 52 81 46 / 10 0 0 20 30
TULIA 53 83 58 80 49 / 20 10 20 30 40
PLAINVIEW 51 82 58 81 50 / 30 10 20 30 50
LEVELLAND 51 82 59 82 50 / 30 10 10 30 40
LUBBOCK 54 83 60 81 53 / 30 10 20 30 50
DENVER CITY 52 82 56 84 50 / 30 10 10 20 40
BROWNFIELD 53 83 60 83 51 / 40 10 20 30 40
CHILDRESS 57 84 62 80 60 / 30 20 20 30 60
SPUR 55 83 61 80 58 / 40 20 20 30 50
ASPERMONT 59 80 64 79 59 / 40 20 20 30 50

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
TXZ021>023-027-028-033-034-039-040.

01/14

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX

1202 AM CDT FRI MAR 16 2012

.AVIATION...
LITTLE CHANGE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS MODERATE SLY LOW LEVEL
WINDS CONTINUE TO BRING GULF MOISTURE INTO S TX. MVFR CIGS WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND FALL TO IFR BETWEEN 08Z AND 10Z. CIGS
WILL AGAIN LIFT TO VFR BY AROUND 18Z ON FRIDAY. ISOLATED THUNDER
SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF KDRT AND DISSIPATE BY 08Z SO HAVE NOT
INCLUDED IN FORECAST. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
I-35 TERMINALS AFTER 08Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH 18Z. S-SELY WINDS
OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND 10 TO 15 KNOTS ON FRIDAY WITH GUST
TO 20 KNOTS FROM 19Z-23Z.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1158 PM CDT THU MAR 15 2012/

AVIATION...
LITTLE CHANGE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS MODERATE SLY LOW LEVEL
WINDS CONTINUE TO BRING GULF MOISTURE INTO S TX. MVFR CIGS WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP. KDRT WILL SEE MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING AROUND
10Z. CIGS WILL AGAIN LIFT TO VFR BY AROUND 18Z ON FRIDAY. ISOLATED
THUNDER SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF KDRT AND DISSIPATE BY 08Z SO HAVE
NOT INCLUDED IN FORECAST. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE I-35 TERMINALS AFTER 08Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH 18Z. S-SELY
WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND 10 TO 15 KNOTS ON FRIDAY WITH
GUST TO 20 KNOTS FROM 19Z-23Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1118 PM CDT THU MAR 15 2012/

UPDATE...
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OVER BREWSTER COUNTY WILL MOVE THROUGH
SOUTHERN TERRELL COUNTY AND LIKELY WEAKEN INTO A SHOWER AS IT GETS
INTO WESTERN VAL VERDE COUNTY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE LATE NIGHT
ACTIVITY DID WARRANT FURTHER INSPECTION AS THE SATELLITE WV LOOP
SHOWED A DECENT SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO SRN NM AND FAR W TX. MID
LEVEL WIND FORECASTS FROM THE RUC MATCHES UP WELL WITH A SHORTWAVE
SEEN ON HI-RES MODELS THAT DEPICT THE SHORTWAVE AFFECTING CENTRAL
TX AND SHOWING AN INCREASING QPF TO SUGGEST STREAMER SHOWERS
MAINLY IN THE MORNING HOURS. UPDATED FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS THROUGH 17Z. THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 631 PM CDT THU MAR 15 2012/

AVIATION...
LITTLE CHANGE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS MODERATE SLY LOW LEVEL
WINDS CONTINUE TO BRING GULF MOISTURE INTO S TX. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH 04Z-06Z WHEN MVFR CIGS WILL
REDEVELOP AND LOWER TO IFR BY 12Z WITH PATCHY LIGHT DRIZZLE AND
FOG BETWEEN 10Z-15Z LOWERING VSBYS TO 4-6 MILES. KDRT WILL SEE
MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING AROUND 12Z. CIGS WILL AGAIN LIFT TO VFR BY
AROUND 18Z ON FRIDAY. S-SELY WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND
10 TO 15 KNOTS ON FRIDAY WITH GUST TO 20 KNOTS FROM 19Z-23Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 533 PM CDT THU MAR 15 2012/

UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE ISSUED TO CLEAN UP QPF NUMBERS FOR SUNDAY INTO
TUESDAY. SOME COSMETIC CHANGES ALSO MADE TO POPS...SKY...AND FIRST
PERIOD TEMPS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 247 PM CDT THU MAR 15 2012/

DISCUSSION...
SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL GULF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY BELOW A SOUTHWESTERLY SUBSIDENT JET. SOME MORNING DRIZZLE
MAY AGAIN DEVELOP ALONG ESCARPMENT COUNTIES LATE NIGHT TO LATE
MORNING. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. HIGHS FRIDAY FROM THE
MID 70S HILLS TO THE UPPER 70S AND 80S ADJACENT AREAS. DISTURBANCES
TRACKING NORTHWEST OF THE REGION TOMORROW EVENING MAY PRODUCE
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MAY CLIP OUR EXTREME NORTHWEST TO EXTREME
NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY LOCATIONS. INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW RESULTING
IN BETTER UPSLOPING MOISTURE MAY FORCE CONVECTION OFF BURROS INTO
WESTERN CWA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. FURTHER DISTURBANCES PUSHING
ACROSS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WILL PRODUCE
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS HEIGHTS ALOFT
CONTINUE TO LOWER AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING STORM SYSTEM TO OUR WEST.
BY MONDAY NIGHT...EARLY TUESDAY...THE BROAD UPPER LOW`S FORWARD
SIDE WILL BEGIN IMPACTING THE REGION AS A PACIFIC FRONT PUSHES INTO
WESTERN PORTIONS. GOOD JET ACTIVITY ALONG AND AHEAD THE FRONT COMBINED
WITH PW`S SOME 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS HIGHER THAN WHAT IS NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR WILL RESULT IN EFFICIENT RAIN RATES WHICH MAY
LEAD TO SOME LOCALIZED FLOOD PROBLEMS FROM THE EASTERN HILL COUNTRY
EASTWARD OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. ONE TO TWO
INCH RAINS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AFOREMENTIONED TIME RANGE (OVERNIGHT
MONDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY) ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
DECREASING CLOUDINESS FROM THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS
DRY NORTH WINDS UNDERCUT THE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS...
CHANCES OF RAIN DECREASE EASTERN HALF. COOLER TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S HILLS TO THE LOW AND MID 50S SOUTH
AND EAST. AS THE UPPER LOW PIVOTS NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN U.S.
PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...DRIER WESTERLIES ALOFT WILL
END RAIN CHANCES WITH COOL READINGS AT NIGHT AND MILD DAYTIME
HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND NEXT THURSDAY.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 67 81 68 82 69 / 10 10 10 20 30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 66 81 66 82 68 / 10 10 10 20 30
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 65 80 65 81 67 / 10 10 10 20 30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 65 79 65 80 67 / 10 10 10 30 40
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 65 83 65 84 66 / - 20 20 20 40
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 66 78 67 79 67 / 10 10 10 20 30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 65 81 64 82 66 / 10 10 20 30 40
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 66 80 66 81 68 / 10 10 10 20 30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 66 79 68 80 69 / 10 10 10 20 30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 67 79 67 81 69 / 10 10 10 20 40
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 67 79 67 81 68 / 10 10 10 20 40

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...18

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX

1158 PM CDT THU MAR 15 2012

.AVIATION...
LITTLE CHANGE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS MODERATE SLY LOW LEVEL
WINDS CONTINUE TO BRING GULF MOISTURE INTO S TX. MVFR CIGS WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP. KDRT WILL SEE MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING AROUND
10Z. CIGS WILL AGAIN LIFT TO VFR BY AROUND 18Z ON FRIDAY. ISOLATED
THUNDER SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF KDRT AND DISSIPATE BY 08Z SO HAVE
NOT INCLUDED IN FORECAST. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE I-35 TERMINALS AFTER 08Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH 18Z. S-SELY
WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND 10 TO 15 KNOTS ON FRIDAY WITH
GUST TO 20 KNOTS FROM 19Z-23Z.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1118 PM CDT THU MAR 15 2012/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 631 PM CDT THU MAR 15 2012/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 533 PM CDT THU MAR 15 2012/

UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE ISSUED TO CLEAN UP QPF NUMBERS FOR SUNDAY INTO
TUESDAY. SOME COSMETIC CHANGES ALSO MADE TO POPS...SKY...AND FIRST
PERIOD TEMPS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 247 PM CDT THU MAR 15 2012/

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 66 80 67 81 68 / 20 20 10 10 10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 65 80 66 81 66 / 20 20 10 10 10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 66 78 65 80 65 / 20 20 10 10 10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 65 78 65 79 65 / 20 20 10 10 10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 65 81 65 83 65 / 10 10 - 20 20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 66 77 66 78 67 / 20 20 10 10 10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 66 80 65 81 64 / 20 20 10 10 20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 66 79 66 80 66 / 20 20 10 10 10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 68 79 66 79 68 / 20 20 10 10 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 66 78 67 79 67 / 20 20 10 10 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 67 79 67 79 67 / 20 20 10 10 10

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...18

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX

1118 PM CDT THU MAR 15 2012

.UPDATE...
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OVER BREWSTER COUNTY WILL MOVE THROUGH
SOUTHERN TERRELL COUNTY AND LIKELY WEAKEN INTO A SHOWER AS IT GETS
INTO WESTERN VAL VERDE COUNTY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE LATE NIGHT
ACTIVITY DID WARRANT FURTHER INSPECTION AS THE SATELLITE WV LOOP
SHOWED A DECENT SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO SRN NM AND FAR W TX. MID
LEVEL WIND FORECASTS FROM THE RUC MATCHES UP WELL WITH A SHORTWAVE
SEEN ON HI-RES MODELS THAT DEPICT THE SHORTWAVE AFFECTING CENTRAL
TX AND SHOWING AN INCREASING QPF TO SUGGEST STREAMER SHOWERS
MAINLY IN THE MORNING HOURS. UPDATED FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS THROUGH 17Z. THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 631 PM CDT THU MAR 15 2012/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 533 PM CDT THU MAR 15 2012/

UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE ISSUED TO CLEAN UP QPF NUMBERS FOR SUNDAY INTO
TUESDAY. SOME COSMETIC CHANGES ALSO MADE TO POPS...SKY...AND FIRST
PERIOD TEMPS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 247 PM CDT THU MAR 15 2012/

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...18
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...32

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BLACKSBURG VA

1152 PM EDT SAT MAR 17 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
THE CIRCULATION BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST AND LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE NATION WILL MAINTAIN A
WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND MID APPALACHIAN
REGION THROUGH NEXT WEEK. A SERIES OF WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES
WILL DRIFT EAST THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE PERIOD...RESULTING IN
SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
INTO AT LEAST MONDAY.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1130 PM EDT SATURDAY...

NARROW BAND OF CONVECTION WORKING SLOWLY ENE FROM THE BLUE RIDGE
AROUND PEAKS OF OTTER...SOUTH INTO THE NC PIEDMONT. THE HRRR AND
LATEST NAM SHOWING THIS ACTIVITY STAYING AROUND FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS. WILL KEEP HIGHER POPS IN THE EAST...AS AIRMASS REMAINS
MOIST. WATCHING STRATUS DECK MOVING SLOWLY WEST INTO THE
TIDEWATER. CONFIDENCE IS LESSENING ON IT MAKING TOO FAR WEST...BUT
MODELS DO DEVELOP ANOTHER AREA OF CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE BLUE RIDGE
AFTER 3 AM.

THE SHOWERS ACROSS KY SHOULD STAY WEST OF US INTO DAWN...BEFORE
WORKING IN. KEPT DRIZZLE AND POSSIBLY FOG FROM THE BLUE RIDGE
INTO THE FOOTHILLS. A GOOD AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER IN MOST AREAS
COUPLING WITH A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD ENSURE THAT OVERNIGHT
LOWS ARE QUITE UNIFORM ACROSS THE AREA...MAINLY IN THE 50S...
WHICH IS CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGICAL HIGHS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

WEATHER ON SUNDAY LIKELY TO BE A REPEAT OF TODAY AS ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE TROF...NOW MOVING EAST OUT OF MISSOURI CRESTS THE FLAT UPPER
RIDGE AND MOVES TOWARD/INTO THE MID APPALACHIAN REGION. WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT...UPSLOPING ACROSS WESTERN FLANKS OF APPALACHIANS...
AND CONTINUED MODERATE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD SUPPORT
ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE
WEST...WITH LOWER THREAT EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE THE
COOLER/DRIER WEDGE ON WESTERN PERIPHERY OF SURFACE HIGH WILL
RESIDE. ONCE AGAIN...GOOD DEAL OF CLOUD COVER WILL CUT BACK ON
POTENTIAL INSOLATION...LIMITING AFTERNOON HIGHS TO THE UPPER 50S
TO MID 60S ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT.

METMOS AND LOCALLY DERIVED MOSMOS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SUPERIOR TO
MUCH WARMER MAVMOS IN THIS CURRENT AIR MASS...AND SEE NO NEED TO
DEVIATE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST IN MAINTAINING THE COOLER THERMAL
REFLECTION...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. AS A RESULT...
ONLY SUBTLE TWEAKS WERE MADE TO REFLECT LOCAL CLIMATOLOGICAL
BIASES BASED MAINLY ON TOPOGRAPHICAL INFLUENCES.

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 247 PM EDT SATURDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SKIRT ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT. ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVES AND POSSIBLY REMNANTS OF AN
MCS WILL TRACK OVER AND EAST OF THE AREA. IF TIMING IS
CORRECT...SHOWERS WILL BE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE IN THE
EVENING...EXITING THE PIEDMONT BY MIDNIGHT. A WEAK SURFACE HIGH
WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE AREA WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STRETCHING
FROM THE GULF NORTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOIST
AND AFTERNOON HEATING MAY GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS ALONG AND EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE MONDAY AFTERNOON. MODEL AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS NOT
IMPRESSIVE...THEREFORE WILL KEEP POPS LOW AND CLOSE TO 20 PERCENT.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS IN
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND IS IN A FAVORABLE POSITION FOR AN INSITU
WEDGE TO DEVELOP. EASTERLY FLOW WILL BRING ATLANTIC MARINE AIR INTO
THE REGION DURING THE PERIOD. VERY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE MAY PLAGUE
THE EAST AND MORE SO ALONG EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE. CLOUDY
AND DAMP CONDITIONS WITH WEDGE IN PLACE WILL KEEP THE AREA ALONG AND
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE COOL FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK.
DOWNSLOPING FLOW AND OUTSIDE OF THE WEDGE MAY HELP BREAK CLOUDS
ALONG WESTERN SLOPES THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE MOUNTAINS EMPIRE AND
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA WILL BE THE DRIEST PART OF RNK CWA.
MEASURABLE RAINFALL LOOKS SPOTTY THEREFORE WILL KEEP POPS LOW WITH
THE HIGHEST PERCENTAGE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE.

MUGGY WITH TEMPERATURES 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY. TEMPERATURES
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY AS WE TRANSITION FROM CALENDAR WINTER IN
TO SPRING.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1224 PM EDT SATURDAY...

INSITU WEDGE AND EASTERLY FLOW MAY KEEP CLOUDY DAMP CONDITIONS ALONG
AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE POSSIBLE INTO
THURSDAY MORNING FOR THE EAST. LIKE IN THE SHORT TERM...MEASURABLE
RAINFALL SPOTTY...THEREFORE WILL KEEP POPS IN THE 20-30 PERCENT
RANGE AND MAINLY ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE.

THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK GOING INTO THE WEEKEND IS A COIN TOSS.
MODELS TRACKING A DEEP CYCLONE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
MID WEST. THE 00Z UKMET IS ON THE NORTH SIDE...THE 00Z CANADIAN ON
THE SOUTH SIDE...THE 00Z ECMWF/12Z GFS IS ON THE FAST SIDE...AND THE
00Z GFS ON THE SLOW SIDE OF THE OVERALL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
SPREAD. THIS LOW MAY END UP IN THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY...PUSHING
A RAIN BAND INTO THE REGION. THIS SHOULD BREAK THE WEDGE BUT BRING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE REGION. MODEL
PREDICTING THIS LOW TO BUMP HEADS WITH THE RIDGE ALONG THE EAST
COAST. HPC AND MYSELF AGREE MORE WITH THE SLOWER 00Z GFS THAN THE
OTHER MODELS. WILL KEEP LOW CONFIDENCE POPS DURING THE PERIOD.

TEMPERATURE WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL AND GENERALLY IN THE 70S INTO
THE WEEKEND.

.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM EDT SATURDAY...

SHOWERS WILL AFFECT THE BLF/LWB/BCB/ROA AREA THIS EVENING FOR LESS
THAN AN HOUR OR SO. NOT EXPECTING TS.

THE MODELS COMING IN SHOWING BETTER DEPICTION OF LOWER CLOUDS
FORMING OVERNIGHT. ATTM...LEANING TOWARD MORE PESSIMISTIC FORECAST
IN THE MTNS ON CIGS/VSBY WITH SUB MVFR AT TIMES AROUND 07Z-14Z.
THE MODELS OVERDID THIS LAST NIGHT...BUT DEWPOINTS HAVE RISEN
SOME. WILL BE IFFY TO KEEP VSBYS DOWN LONG DUE TO CLOUD COVER...SO
MAY BE MORE OF A LOW CLOUD THREAT.

EASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP THE CLOUDS LINGERING LONGER OVER BCB/ROA
AND POINTS EAST SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE WV
MTNS SCOURING OUT THE LOWER CIGS.

THE MVFR CIGS WILL RISE INTO LOW END VFR OUT EAST IN THE AFTN WITH
SOME THUNDER POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.

LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE MID APPALACHIAN AND MID ATLANTIC
REGION INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...WITH A BLOCKING HIGH OFFSHORE
AND LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST. A WARM MOIST AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OVER THE AREA...MAINTAINING A THREAT FOR OCCASIONAL MVFR
RESTRICTIONS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS...ALONG WITH A CONTINUED THREAT FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN SCATTERED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...WERT
NEAR TERM...WERT/WP
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...WERT/WP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI

853 PM CDT SAT MAR 17 2012

.UPDATE...
UPDATED THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHTS FORECAST TO PULL THE MENTION OF
THUNDER. THE CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH HAS DIED WITH THE DIURNAL
TRENDS...AND THE COLD POOL THAT KEPT TRIGGERING THEM HAS WEAKENED
AS WELL. CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IS UP TO ABOUT 100-150J/KG AND NOT
MUCH SUPPORT FOR ANY KIND OF ELEVATED CONVECTION. THE STRONG MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS EVENING...LIFTS EAST
NORTHEAST AND LOOKS TO REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE BORDER. ANOTHER
MILD NIGHT IN STORE.

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. HAVE REMOVED ANY CHANCES OF THUNDER ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST PART OF WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT. ANY FOG TONIGHT LOOKS
TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE AS ENOUGH STIRRING/MIXING SHOULD PRECLUDE
THE DENSE STUFF. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ABOVE THE SHALLOW
INVERSION ARE ABOUT 20 TO 25 KNOTS...ABOUT 5 TO 10KTS BELOW.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 PM CDT SAT MAR 17 2012/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

MAIN STORY CONTINUES TO BE THE UNSEASONABLE HEAT ACROSS SOUTHERN
WI. THE WARM PUMP JUST KEEPS ON PUMPING WITH MORE RECORD WARMTH ON
TAP FOR SUNDAY. RECORD HIGH MINIMUMS WILL BE SHATTERED TONIGHT
WITH MORE RECORDS SHATTERED ON SUNDAY. ON THE PRECIP END OF
THINGS...PER WATER VAPOR RUC COMBO...WATCHING A COUPLE OF WAVES
RIDING NORTHEAST FROM MISSOURI. APPEARS TO BE A DOUBLE VORT
STRUCTURE WITH ONE VORT IN SC MO AND THE OTHER IN THE NW. THIS
MORE NW VORT IS OF GREATEST CONCERN AS IT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
REPEAT THE CONVECTION IN A SIMILAR FASHION TO WHAT TRANSPIRED
SATURDAY MORNING. SEEING EVIDENCE OF SOME INCREASED 850 MOISTURE
ADVECTION AROUND 12Z SUNDAY WITH DEW POINTS INCREASING A BIT ON
THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE 850 LOW LEVEL JET AXIS. WEAK 700 WARM
ADVECTION NOTED WITH SOME FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING. PER
MODELS...BELIEVE GREATER COVERAGE AND POTENTIAL WILL BE TO OUR
SOUTH WITH THE STRONGER SOUTHERN VORT. ONCE ANY OF THIS CONVECTION
GETS OUT OF THE WAY...SHAPING UP TO BE ANOTHER WARM DAY. 925 TEMPS
SUPPORT TEMPS SIMILAR TO SATURDAY WITH A FEW READINGS EXCEEDING 80
DEGREES.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

UPPER RIDGING WILL BE OCCURRING FROM SUN AFT INTO SUN NT AS STRONG
LOW PRESSURE AND THE UPPER WAVE OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS LIFTS NWD
INTO CANADA. MEANWHILE THE SRN PORTION OF THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE WEST WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS AND TX
INTO TUE. THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
EXTEND WELL NWD WITH THE ERN PERIPHERY AFFECTING THE WEST HALF OF
WI FOR MON-TUE. THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT OVER THE PLAINS WILL STAY
TO THE WEST DURING THIS PERIOD. THUS POPS INCREASE FROM EAST TO
WEST ACROSS THE CWA WITH BEST CHANCES FOR PCPN ON MON. THE WARM
CONVEYOR BELT MAY ACTUALLY SHIFT SLIGHTLY WWD FOR MON NT AND TUE
SO LESSER POPS ARE FORECAST. KEPT TEMPS A LITTLE COOLER FOR MON
DUE TO MORE CLOUDS AND PCPN CHANCES BUT INCREASED THEM AGAIN FOR
TUE WITH LESS CLOUDS/PCPN CHANCES.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

THE LARGE CLOSED LOW OVER TX FOR TUE/TUE NT IS THEN DEPICTED BY
THE EXTENDED MODELS TO SLOWLY EJECT NEWD...REACHING THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY BY FRI AND THE EAST COAST LATER ON SAT. THE WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS ACROSS SRN WI WED-THU WITH THE WARM CONVEYOR
BELT OVERHEAD. DECENT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND TSTORMS IS FORECAST
WITH PCPN CHANCES DECREASING FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES AWAY. A CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL THEN ARRIVE FRI NT IN
RESPONSE TO CYCLOGENESIS MOVING EWD ACROSS SRN CANADA. SOME
DIFFERENCES ON MODELS ON THE STRENGTH OF THE COOL AIR BUT BEST ESTIMATE
AT THIS TIME IS FOR HIGHS IN THE 50S ON SAT WHICH IS STILL ABOVE NORMAL.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...VFR THIS PERIOD WITH BROAD SOUTHERLY FLOW
CONTINUING BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE ON THE EAST COAST AND LOW PRESSURE
SITUATED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. CU FIELD WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. LIGHT FOG POTENTIAL LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY BUT WILL NOT LATCH ONTO THE DENSE FOG PLAYED OUT BY MOS WITH
MAIN SYNOPTIC WARM FRONT WELL NORTH. POPS ARE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH ANOTHER WAVE PROGGD TO TRACK SOUTH OF WI LATER
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. GFS MORE GENEROUS WITH QPF BUT GUID POPS
ARE QUITE LOW. IF STORMS DEVELOP EXPECTING COVERAGE TO BE ISOLATED
AT BEST...WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION FOR NOW UNTIL CONVECTIVE TRENDS IN
TERMS OF TIMING AND COVERAGE BECOME MORE CLEAR.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...DAVIS
TONIGHT/SUNDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...COLLAR
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...GEHRING

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GREEN BAY WI

1243 PM CDT FRI MAR 16 2012

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...WHILE A STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHES
ACROSS IOWA AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS TO LOW PRESSURE OVER SE ONTARIO.
SKIES ARE CLEAR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...THOUGH LOW STRATUS IS
STARTING TO EXPAND NORTHWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF LAKE
MICHIGAN. MAY HAVE TO MAKE A LAST MINUTE ADJUSTMENT BASED ON LATEST
TRENDS OF THIS STRATUS. SOME CONVECTION IS STARTING TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT OVER IOWA BUT WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
KEEP IT SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY. AS THIS FRONT RETURNS NORTH TODAY
AND TONIGHT...LOW CHANCES OF PRECIP ARE THE PRIMARY
CONCERN...FOLLOWED CLOSELY BY TEMPS.

TODAY...STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHING ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA AND
ILLINOIS WILL BEGIN TO RETURN NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT TODAY AND
WILL BISECT WISCONSIN FROM NW TO SE BY LATE IN THE DAY. PERSISTENT
EAST TO SE FLOW WILL EXIST NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY WHICH WILL PREVENT
THE FRONT FROM PUSHING INTO NE WISCONSIN. DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF
850MB MOISTURE ADVECTION AND FAIRLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...WILL HAVE SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVING IN ALOFT...THAT MAY
ENHANCE THE CAP MORE THAN WHAT THE NAM IS SHOWING ON PROGGED
SOUNDINGS. KTOP AND KSGF ARE ALSO SHOWING FAIRLY PRONOUNCED CAPPING
IN PLACE. SO WILL STICK WITH A DRY FORECAST WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE LOW 60S NE TO LOW 70S SW...LOCALLY COOLER NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN.

TONIGHT...SW FLOW CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN ALOFT WHICH WILL PUSH THE
FRONT THROUGH ALL BUT FAR NE WISCONSIN WHERE SE WIND WILL KEEP THE
SHALLOW MARINE LAYER IN PLACE. PROGGED SOUNDINGS INDICATE FAIRLY
SUBSTANTIAL ELEVATED CAPE DEVELOPING WITHIN THE LLJ AXIS OVER
CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY 06Z...TO THE TUNE OF 1100
J/KG IN THE GFS AND 2500 J/KG IN THE NAM WITHOUT MUCH CIN. NOT
ENTIRELY CONFIDENT IN THIS INSTABILITY MATERIALIZING FOR THE REASONS
MENTIONED ABOVE (STRONG CAP ON SOUNDINGS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS).
BUT EVEN WITH THIS INSTABILITY...TOUGH TO FIND A TRIGGER TO INITIATE
CONVECTION. DO SEE THE POSSIBILITY OF A WEAK WAVE MAKING IT TO
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND IOWA LATE...BUT IT MAY BE A TAD TOO FAR AWAY
FOR ANY IMPACT IF THE MODELS HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON IT (NOT SURE OF
THAT EITHER). SO WILL GO DRY FOR THE FORECAST. NOT EXPECTING MUCH
FOG CONCERNS EITHER DUE TO THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. LOWS
RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

SATURDAY...THE WARM FRONT FINALLY CLEARS THE ENTIRE AREA ON SATURDAY
WITH WINDS TURNING TO THE SOUTH. SHOULD SEE A VERY WARM DAY PENDING
CLOUDS AND PRECIP. IF THAT WAVE IS ACTUALLY PRESENT...IT WILL PASS
ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND COULD INTERACT WITH ELEVATED
INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND STORMS. AS A RESULT...DO NOT
HAVE A CONVINCING ARGUMENT TO REMOVE POPS. TEMPS WILL SOAR BACK
INTO THE 70S EVERYWHERE.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THRU THURSDAY. MAIN FORECAST
CHALLENGES REMAIN HOW WARM WILL TEMPS CAN GET SUNDAY-TUESDAY...FOG
POTENTIAL...AND PRECIP CHANCES.

MODELS REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE WEST COAST...AND
UPPER RIDGING DOMINATES THE EASTERN U.S. MODELS BEGIN TO DIFFER BY
MID-WEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH CUTS OFF AND DRIFTS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

MANY RECORD HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SHATTERED OVER THE WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL USHER IN WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. 850/925 TEMPS SUPPORT MID/UPPER 70S FOR
CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WI ON SUNDAY...AND LOW/MID 70S NORTH. SOME
SPOTS MAY TOUCH THE 80 DEGREE MARK ACROSS CENTRAL WI! MAYBE
SLIGHTLY COOLER ON MONDAY...BUT STILL VERY WARM. MORE CLOUDS AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ALOFT FOR TUESDAY...BUT TEMPS STILL EXPECTED
TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S NORTH AND LOW/MID 70S SOUTH. THE COOL
WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL KEEP THINGS MUCH COOLER ALONG THE
LAKESHORE AND NEAR THE BAY OF GREEN BAY THROUGH THE PERIOD. RECORD
HIGH MINIMUMS WILL LIKELY BE SHATTERED AS WELL IN MANY SPOTS...
WITH LOWS AT NIGHT ONLY FALLING INTO THE 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS
AWAY FROM THE LAKE AND FAR NORTHERN WI. SURFACE WINDS BACK TOWARD
THE SE EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING THE COOLER TEMPS AT THE
LAKESHORE A LITTLE FARTHER INLAND ACROSS FAR EASTERN WI.

PRECIP CHANCES STILL CHALLENGING THROUGH THE EXTENDED AS QUESTIONS
REMAIN REGARDING TIMING/LOCATION OF WEAK DISTURBANCES ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE RIDGE...AND TIMING THE UPPER TROUGH MID-WEEK. SATURDAY
NIGHT IS THE FIRST PERIOD OF CONCERN. GFS/NAM DIFFER ON AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY ALOFT...WITH THE GFS SHOWING VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES. ECMWF/GEM FAVOR THE GFS. MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN
NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...VERY WEAK SHEAR...PLUS STILL NO CLEAR
TRIGGER FOR PRECIP ACTIVITY TO FIRE ON...WITH MODELS ONLY SHOWING
A FEW WEAK VORT MAXES. MAJORITY OF MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SHOW
SOME PRECIP SATURDAY NIGHT...SO FEEL THE NEED TO KEEP SOME SLIGHT
POPS IN THE GRIDS. MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP FOG EACH NIGHT...AS
DEWPOINTS CREEP TOWARD 60. WILL ADD FOG TO LAKE MICHIGAN AND NEAR
THE LAKESHORE...MAINLY ALONG DOOR COUNTY...AS COOLER WATERS SHOULD
ENHANCE FOG POTENTIAL...BUT HOLD OFF ON ANY FOG MENTION ELSEWHERE.

WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS
THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. EVEN THE PRECIP
HAPPY MODELS KEEP THINGS DRY! SOME DISAGREEMENT ON HOW FAST TO
BRING THE CHANCE FOR PRECIP INTO THE AREA AS THE UPPER TROUGH
ADVANCES SLOWLY EASTWARD. PREFER A SLOWER SOLUTION...SO WILL KEEP
THE FORECAST DRY ACROSS EASTERN WI THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WILL HOLD
ON TO SOME LOW CHANCE POPS FOR CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WI WHICH
WILL BE A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE APPROACHING TROUGH. WILL NOT BRING
HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA UNTIL WEDNESDAY...AS THE UPPER
TROUGH FINALLY PUSHES CLOSE ENOUGH...AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND COLD
FRONT PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO INCREASE RAIN/STORM
CHANCES.
&&

.AVIATION...
SOME PATCHY IFR/MVFR CIGS DEVELOPED BELOW AN INVERSION LAYER ACROSS
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN LATE THIS MORNING. THIS AREA WILL SHIFT NORTH
INTO FAR NORTHEAST WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON. LATER TONIGHT...MAIN
QUESTION WILL BE HOW WIDESPREAD AND DENSE THE FOG (IFR/MVFR
CEILING AND VISIBILITIES) WILL BECOME. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUGGEST
THAT AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 29 AND NEAR THE LAKE WILL SEE
AREAS OF DENSE FOG. HOWEVER...925MB WINDS ARE 20 TO 30 KNOTS WHICH
COULD PREVENT THE DENSE FOG FORMING. HAVE TAKEN THE KAUW/KCWA/KRHI
18Z TAFS DOWN TO A HALF MILE TONIGHT. THE IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE RAPIDLY BY 15Z-16Z ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE DENSE FOG
IS EXPECTED TO LINGER A LITTLE BIT LONGER AT KSUE/KMTW WITH WIND
OFF THE LAKE. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WITH GUSTS 0F 20 TO 25 KNOTS. ALSO...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...BUT TIMING AND LOCATION OF THESE
STORMS STILL UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. DID NOT INCLUDE THUNDER IN
THE 18Z TAFS.

ECKBERG

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

1242 PM CDT FRI MAR 16 2012

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
303 AM CDT FRI MAR 16 2012

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...AS WELL AS THE LONG PERIOD OF WARMTH SEEN.

CURRENTLY AS OF 07Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED TROUGHING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND RIDGING BUILDING
OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO MANITOBA. TWO OTHER FEATURES OF NOTE
IN WATER VAPOR ARE SHORTWAVES OVER NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND NEAR
TUSCON ARIZONA. UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR REMAINS UNDER THE BUILDING
RIDGING AND PRETTY MUCH THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE U.S.. 850MB
TEMPS AT 00Z RANGED FROM 10-12C AT BIS...ABR...MPX AND GRB...WHILE
OAX AND DVN WERE WARMER AT 14C. AT THE SURFACE...LEE TROUGHING WAS
PRESENT FROM THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS DOWN INTO NEW MEXICO...WHILE A
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING OFF THE LEE TROUGHING EAST ALONG US-20 IN
IOWA. THIS STATIONARY FRONT NOT ONLY SEPARATES SOME OF THE WARMER
850MB AIR SEEN ON 00Z RAOBS...BUT MOISTURE AS WELL. THE 850MB
DEWPOINT AT MPX WAS -10C...COMPARED TO 6C AT DVN. ON A SIDE NOTE...
THE 12Z NAM/GFS WERE 3-5C TOO HIGH WITH THE DEWPOINT AT 850MB FOR A
12 HOUR FORECAST AT DVN...BUT NEARLY SPOT ON AT MPX. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS JUMP NEARLY 20F BETWEEN MSP AND DSM WITH WIDESPREAD MID
50S TO LOW 60S READINGS SOUTH OF THE FRONT. 925MB PROFILER AND RADAR
VWP DATA SHOWED AN INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND FROM OKLAHOMA
INTO IOWA AND THE DAKOTAS...INDICATIVE OF THE BUILDING UPPER
RIDGING. SO FAR ANY FOG THAT HAS FORMED HAS BEEN PATCHY AND
RESTRICTED TO RIVER VALLEYS.

UPPER AND SURFACE PATTERN...OVERALL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
HERE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. TROUGHING CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST IS GOING TO BECOME A FULL LONGWAVE TROUGH DOWN THE WEST
COAST OF THE U.S. BY 18Z SATURDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...THE UPPER FLOW
OVER THE FORECAST AREA BRIEFLY TURNS SOUTHWEST FOR TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY...THEN HEIGHTS/RIDGING BUILDS OVERHEAD. FOR SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGHING SHIFTS EAST INTO THE
ROCKIES...RESULTING IN A SLIGHT SHIFT EASTWARD OF THE RIDGING OVER
THE FORECAST AREA. IN ADDITION...A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ENDS UP
FORMING OVER EASTERN MONTANA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. NOW REGARDING
SOME OF THE INDIVIDUAL PERIOD DETAILS:

TODAY AND TONIGHT...AS THE UPPER RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS
PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...THE STATIONARY FRONT COMES
NORTH...CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 18Z AND 06Z. GIVEN ALL
THE UNSEASONABLE WARMTH AND HUMIDITY ALONG/SOUTH OF THE FRONT...
CONCERN IS IF ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD FORM ON THIS
FRONT. IN FACT...16.00Z GFS SHOWS ONLY 25-50 J/KG OF MLCIN
ALONG/SOUTH OF THE FRONT. ONLY REAL SHORTWAVE OF NOTE IS THE ONE
OVER NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...ALBEIT IT IS VERY WEAK...WHICH IS PROGGED
TO MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HARD TO SAY IF THIS
INITIATES CONVECTION OR NOT. THE 16.00Z GFS SAYS IT DOES OVER FAR
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN...WHILE THE 16.00Z NAM/SPC WRF SAYS NOT AT ALL.
REGARDING THE FRONT ITSELF...0-2 KM CONVERGENCE PLOTS FROM BOTH THE
GFS AND NAM SHOW NO CONVERGENCE OCCURRING. FEELING IS THAT GIVEN THE
FRONT HAS NO CONVERGENCE...WE WILL END UP DRY...BUT THE WEAK
SHORTWAVE IS A WORRY. WHATEVER DOES FORM THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD
DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. THE OVERNIGHT THEN LOOKS
DRY WITH THE AREA UNDERNEATH A BROAD STREAM OF 925-850MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WITH NO FOCUSING MECHANISM. REGARDING TEMPERATURES...850MB
READINGS HOLD STEADY TODAY BETWEEN 10-12C...THOUGH 925MB READINGS
ARE PROGGED 2-4C HIGHER NORTH OF I-90 COMPARED TO 00Z FRIDAY.
THEREFORE...ANTICIPATING HIGHS TO BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY SOUTH OF
I-90 AND 4-6F WARMER NORTH OF I-90. CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION ON A
SOUTHERLY BREEZE TONIGHT...PLUS HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL ALL LEAD TO
LOWS STAYING UP IN THE 50S. A FEW SPOTS MAY NOT DROP BELOW 60.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THINGS GET EVEN MORE MURKY TO FIND
TRIGGERS FOR CONVECTION. WITH THE MAIN FRONT...NOW A WARM FRONT...
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...AM CONCERNED THIS ENTIRE TIME PERIOD WE
WILL END UP CAPPED. THE 16.00Z NAM DOES DEVELOP CONVECTION NORTH OF
I-90 SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT THIS LOOKS SUSPICIOUS. THE
SHORTWAVE CAUSING THE NAM TO DEVELOP THE CONVECTION ORIGINATES FROM
UTAH RIGHT NOW...WHICH IS TOUGH TO FIND ON WATER VAPOR...THEN
SUDDENLY STRENGTHENS OVER EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA LATE SATURDAY.
OUTSIDE OF THE NAM...THE CANADIAN/GFS/ECMWF ALL BASICALLY DEPICT A
DRY SCENARIO...WITH A LITTLE SMATTERING OF QPF ON SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. HAVE DECIDED SINCE THE SMATTERING OF QPF STILL
EXISTS TO MAINTAIN THE PREVIOUS 20 PERCENT CHANCES FOR SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT...PER ALSO COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.
UNLESS A MORE DEFINED SIGNAL FOR PRECIPITATION BECOMES APPARENT...
ENVISION THESE 20 PERCENT CHANCES CAN BE DROPPED. THIS LEAVES
TEMPERATURES THE MAIN CONCERN. 925MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED BETWEEN
16-18C BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THESE READINGS PRODUCED HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S OVER NORTHEAST IOWA YESTERDAY...SO THESE SHOULD BE
SEEN IN MOST AREAS OVER THE WEEKEND. LOWS ALSO EXPECTED TO STAY VERY
WARM WITH ABNORMALLY HIGH DEWPOINTS AND A SUSTAINED SOUTH BREEZE.

NOTE...SHOULD ANY STORMS FORM DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...0-6KM
SHEAR IS LESS THAN 20 KT. PLUS...ALL CAPE PROFILES SUGGEST A NARROW
RIBBON. THEREFORE...NO SEVERE STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH LIGHTNING
AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN THE MAIN CONCERNS.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
303 AM CDT FRI MAR 16 2012

ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD FOCUS IS ON THE SPEED AND EVOLUTION OF THE
LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE ROCKIES SUNDAY NIGHT. A STRONG
CONSENSUS EXISTS AMONGST THE ECMWF/GFS/CANADIAN AND GFS ENSEMBLES
FOR THE TROUGH TO REACH THE WESTERN PLAINS BY 12Z TUESDAY...THEN
BEGIN TO SPLIT APART AS IT RUNS INTO THE VERY STRONG RIDGE TO ITS
EAST. THE NORTHERN PART OF THE TROUGH ENDS UP LIFTING NORTH TOWARDS
HUDSON/JAMES BAYS BY WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE SOUTHERN END CUTS OFF
INTO AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE 16.00Z GFS/ECMWF
AND SOME GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HINT THAT BY LATE THURSDAY THE UPPER
LOW COULD START LIFTING NORTH TOWARDS THE AREA. HOWEVER...THE 15.12Z
ECMWF...SOME 16.00Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND EXTRAPOLATION OF THE
16.00Z CANADIAN ALL SUGGEST A VERY SLOW MOVEMENT WHICH SEEMS MORE
REASONABLE.

REGARDING THE IMPACT ON THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE UPPER TROUGH...A
STRONG SOUTHERLY JET OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF IT SHOULD START PRODUCING
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF I-35 MONDAY MORNING. THESE
WILL THEN SLOWLY PROCEED TO MOVE EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. BEST CHANCES TO SEE PRECIPITATION
WOULD BE WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...CLOSER TO THE FORCING FROM
THE UPPER TROUGH. FOR NOW HAVE STAYED PRETTY CLOSE TO A CONSENSUS ON
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO HANDLE UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING AND DISTANCE
IN TIME IN THE FORECAST...THOUGH THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT. THE EXACT TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES COULD
CHANGE AS WE GET CLOSER. LOWER CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION EXIST
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...DUE TO THE LINGERING STREAM OF
MOISTURE AND FORCING FROM THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE UPPER
TROUGH...OR THE UPPER LOW APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A SLOW COOL DOWN THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD AS THE UPPER TROUGH/LOW APPROACH THE REGION. STILL...850MB
TEMPS DROP ONLY FROM AROUND 12C MONDAY TO 8-10C ON THURSDAY.
THEREFORE TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO STAY WELL ABOVE NORMAL...
ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT WITH THE CLOUDS PREVENTING HEAT LOSS. DEPENDING
ON THE PROGRESSION OF THE CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...POTENTIAL EXISTS TO BREAK RECORD HIGHS.

.AVIATION...THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY
1242 PM CDT FRI MAR 16 2012

A WARM FRONT HAS COME THROUGH THE REGION WITH WINDS SHIFTING
AROUND TO THE SOUTH AT RST AND LSE. THESE WINDS COULD BE GUSTY AT
TIMES THIS AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY AT RST WHERE SOME 20KT GUSTS
ARE POSSIBLE. THE QUESTION FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS
WHETHER ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS REGION WIDE...THERE IS PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY AVAILABLE TO TAP INTO...BUT THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO
BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF A TRIGGER TO GET IT STARTED. SO...WHILE
THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF SEEING SHOWERS/STORMS...HAVE NOT PUT
THEM INTO THE TAFS AT THIS POINT. WITH THE WARM FRONT OFF TO THE
NORTH TONIGHT AND SOME STRONGER LOW LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE
REGION...AM NOT EXPECTING AS LOW OF VISIBILITIES DUE TO FOG AS THE
PAST FEW MORNINGS BUT SOME 4-6SM RESTRICTIONS ARE STILL POSSIBLE.

.CLIMATE...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY
303 AM CDT FRI MAR 16 2012

BOTH RECORD HIGHS AND RECORD WARM LOW TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE EACH
DAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS
CONTINUES TO RESIDE ACROSS THE AREA. NOTE THAT TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BEGIN COOLING MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT...CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION MOVE INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER...RECORDS ON THOSE DAYS
COMPARED TO FORECASTS SUGGEST POTENTIAL TO BREAK THEM.

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
303 AM CDT FRI MAR 16 2012

WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.

SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...HALBACH
CLIMATE....AJ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

645 AM CDT FRI MAR 16 2012

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
303 AM CDT FRI MAR 16 2012

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...AS WELL AS THE LONG PERIOD OF WARMTH SEEN.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
303 AM CDT FRI MAR 16 2012

.AVIATION...TODAY AND TONIGHT
645 AM CDT FRI MAR 16 2012

DEALING WITH FOG POTENTIAL EARLY THIS MORNING AS A UNSEASONABLY
MILD/MOIST AIRMASS CONTINUES OVER THE AREA. WINDS AT BLUFF TOP
AT THE WEATHER OFFICE HAVE STAYED STIRRED UP AROUND 3-5MPH WITH A
COUPLE GUST AROUND 12 MPH. THIS STIRRING APPEARS TO HAVE KEPT
DENSE FOG FROM FORMING DOWN IN THE RIVER VALLEY/KLSE TAF SITE.
HAVE PREDOMINANT 4SM BR GOING RIGHT NOW WITH TEMPO FROM 12-14Z OF
1-2SM BR. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
HOURS. OTHERWISE...KRST HAS STAYED UP P6SM ALL NIGHT AS WINDS
THERE STAYED UP SUSTAINED AROUND 8 KT TO PREVENT FOG. CARRYING
JUST SOME 6SM BR THERE UNTIL 14Z. BEYOND THIS...LOOKING AT
UNSEASONABLY WARM/MOIST AIR MASS TO MOVE IN/STAY ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR SOME CONVECTION
TODAY IN DAYTIME HEATING AND BUILDING INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...THERE
REMAINS NO FOCUSING MECHANISM TO FORCE CONVECTION. SO...LOOK FOR
SOME BUILDUP IN CUMULUS TODAY BUT REMAINING SCATTERED WITH BASES
AROUND 3000FT. WILL HAVE TO KEEP A VIGILANT EYE ON THE
POSSIBILITY OF SHRA/TS DEVELOPMENT TODAY AT THE TAF SITES MAINLY
THIS AFTERNOON DURING PEAK HEATING. ALSO INTRODUCED SOME LIGHT 5SM BR
TONIGHT AFTER 07Z WITH SOME COOLING IN THE LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER
OVERNIGHT AND MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE.

.CLIMATE...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY
303 AM CDT FRI MAR 16 2012

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
303 AM CDT FRI MAR 16 2012

WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.

SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...DAS
CLIMATE....AJ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GREEN BAY WI

628 AM CDT FRI MAR 16 2012

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THRU THURSDAY. MAIN FORECAST
CHALLENGES REMAIN HOW WARM WILL TEMPS CAN GET SUNDAY-TUESDAY...FOG
POTENTIAL...AND PRECIP CHANCES.

.AVIATION...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND ACROSS ALL BUT FAR NE WISCONSIN TONIGHT. NO
LONGER ANTICIPATING MUCH FOG...BUT LOW STRATUS HAS BEEN EXPANDING
OVER SE WISCONSIN AND INTO THE FOX VALLEY. SHOULD CONTINUE TO DO
THROUGH MID-MORNING SO HAVE ADDED BKN MVFR CONDITIONS AT ATW.
POTENTIAL TO GET INTO GRB TOO. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. THINK WILL SEE SOME SCT-BKN CLOUDS ROLL IN WITH
THE APPROACH OF THE WARM FRONT. SHOWER CHANCES TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

MPC
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

338 AM CDT FRI MAR 16 2012

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
303 AM CDT FRI MAR 16 2012

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...AS WELL AS THE LONG PERIOD OF WARMTH SEEN.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
303 AM CDT FRI MAR 16 2012

.AVIATION...THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY
337 AM CDT FRI MAR 16 2012

APPEARS WINDS OFF THE SURFACE AROUND 925MB/1500-200FT ARE A BIT
STRONGER AND KEEPING THE LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER STIRRED ENOUGH TO
PREVENT DENSE FOG FROM FORMING AT THE KLSE TAF SITE. HAVE BACKED
OUT OF THE 1/4SM FG AS A RESULT AND GOING 6SM FROM
08-12Z...PERHAPS LOWERING TO AROUND 3SM BR AROUND 12Z...THEN
LIFTING TO P6SM BY 14Z AS WINDS SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE TO PICK
UP. KRST ALSO MAINTAING A 3 DEGREE THREE DEGREE TEMP/DEW POINT
SPREAD WITH WINDS MIXING THERE AS WELL. WILL KEEP THINGS AS IS
THERE AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR THROUGH THIS MORNING.

OTHERWISE...UNSEASONABLY MILD/MOIST AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS...WITH SOME
LATE DAY INSTABILITY COULD RESULT IN SOME SHRA/TS DEVELOPMENT.
HAVING A HARD TIME FINDING A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR CONVECTION
THOUGH...SO WILL NOT ADD TO THE TAF FOR NOW. HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR CONVECTION POTENTIAL TODAY...AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.CLIMATE...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY
303 AM CDT FRI MAR 16 2012

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
303 AM CDT FRI MAR 16 2012

WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.

SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...DAS
CLIMATE....AJ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GREEN BAY WI

327 AM CDT FRI MAR 16 2012

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THRU THURSDAY. MAIN FORECAST
CHALLENGES REMAIN HOW WARM WILL TEMPS CAN GET SUNDAY-TUESDAY...FOG
POTENTIAL...AND PRECIP CHANCES.

.AVIATION...PLAN TO CONT WITH JUST MVFR VSBYS LATER TNGT AS GUID
AGAIN SEEMS TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH LOW CLDS AND FOG.

SKOWRONSKI
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$
MPC/BERSCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

303 AM CDT FRI MAR 16 2012

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
303 AM CDT FRI MAR 16 2012

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...AS WELL AS THE LONG PERIOD OF WARMTH SEEN.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
303 AM CDT FRI MAR 16 2012

.AVIATION...
1115 PM CDT THU MAR 15 2012

POTENTIAL FOR SUB 1SM BR OVERNIGHT-EARLY FRI MORNING IS THE MAIN
AVIATION CONCERN.

SFC TDS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S AT LATE EVENING...AND EXPECT THEM TO
STAY THERE. T/TD SPREAD AT 7 F AT KRST AT 10 PM...BUT ONLY 3 AT
KLSE. LIGHT SFC WIND FIELD...BUT RUC13 BUFKIT SOUNDINGS HAVE
20 KTS OF WIND BY 300 KFT AT 09Z...AND AT LEAST 10 KTS AT KLSE AT
300 FT AT 09Z. BOTH HAVE DECOUPLED...BUT THE SHELTERED LOCATIONS OF
KLSE WOULD BE MORE SUPPORTIVE OF FOG FORMATION.

FOG PARAMETERS POINT TO KLSE FOR THE HIGHEST RISK OF 1/4SM FG.
PROBABLY TOO MUCH MIXING AT KRST TO DROP THAT LOW...PLUS THERE IS
STILL A GOOD T/TD SPREAD.

WILL CONTINUE THE 1/4SM AT KLSE. SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THERE MIGHT
NOT BE IMPROVEMENT AT KLSE UNTIL 16Z...WITH THE INVERSION NOT
BREAKING/MIXING OUT UNTIL 19Z OR SO.

FOR KRST...NOT SOLD THAT VSBYS WILL DROP BELOW 1SM...2 TO 3SM MIGHT
BE MORE REASONABLE.

MOIST AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...WITH PWS UPWARDS OF 300% OF NORMAL. THIS...WITH SOME
LATE DAY INSTABILITY COULD RESULT IN SOME SHRA/TS DEVELOPMENT.
HAVING A HARD TIME FINDING A FOCUS THOUGH...SO WILL NOT ADD TO THE
TAF. ITS SOMETHING TO WATCH TODAY...AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.CLIMATE...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY
303 AM CDT FRI MAR 16 2012

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
303 AM CDT FRI MAR 16 2012

WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.

SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...RIECK
CLIMATE....AJ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

1115 PM CDT THU MAR 15 2012

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT
600 PM CDT THU MAR 15 2012

FOG IS THE CONCERN TONIGHT...AND A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MIGHT BE
NEEDED.

MISS ON THE DENSE FOG FROM THIS MORNING AS THE SFC FRONT DID NOT
USHER IN THE DRIER AIR ANTICIPATED. DEW POINTS HOVER NEAR 50
CURRENTLY...AND WILL LIKELY HOLD THERE THROUGH THE NIGHT. SFC WINDS
ARE STILL LIGHT...BUT BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW AN INCREASE UP TO 15 KTS
AFTER 06Z FROM ABOUT 300 FT AND ABOVE. NOT QUITE AS FAVORABLE FOR
DENSE FOG AS THIS MORNING...BUT DECOUPLING WILL HAVE ALREADY
OCCURRED BY THEN...ALLOWING FOR POOLING OF THE NEAR SFC MOISTURE.
RIBBON OF HIGH DEW POINTS INDICATED VIA MSAS ANALYSIS...RIDING THE
I-90 CORRIDOR TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. A BATCH OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY...BUT SHOULD EXIT EAST BETWEEN
02-04Z...WITH SKC-SCT CLOUDS AFTER THAT. SO...A LOT OF FAVORABLE
VARIABLES TO SUPPORT FOG...AND DENSE FOG. THE GREATEST THREAT LOOKS
TO BE FROM THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER EAST...ESPECIALLY IN THE I-90
CORRIDOR. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
314 PM CDT THU MAR 15 2012

15.00Z GFS/GEM/ECMWF IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT MON/TUE WITH THE SLOW
EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE WESTERN CONUS LONGWAVE TROUGH. AS PREVIOUS
FORECASTER MENTIONED...MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH THE EVOLUTION OF
THIS THOUGH...AS SEEN IN THE LESSER RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY. 15.12Z
RUNS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER THAN THE 15.00Z RUNS...MORE IN LINE WITH
THE 15.00Z ENSEMBLE MEANS. 15.12Z GFS/ECMWF WITH VERY SIMILAR OUT
INTO THE TUE/WED TIME-FRAME. ALL MODELS REMAIN SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE
WITH THE TROUGH WED/THU BUT TREND TOWARD DEVELOPING AN UPPER LOW IN
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THU...TO BE EJECTED NORTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA
LATE NEXT WEEK. BETTER BETWEEN MODEL CONSISTENCY MON-THU LENDS SOME
BETTER CONFIDENCE TO THE LONG-TERM PORTION OF THE FCST. NO MATTER
HOW THE TROUGH/UPPER LOW EVOLVES THRU NEXT WEEK THE MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE. THE SMALLER/MESO-SCALE DETAIL
DIFFERENCES IN THE DAY 4-7 PERIOD DO LEAD TO SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE
MON-THU SHRA/TSRA CHANCES. DEEP SOUTH FLOW AHEAD OF THE SLOWLY
PROGRESSIVE SFC-MID LEVEL TROUGH PULLS A VERY MOIST AIRMASS...PW
VALUES OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES /250-350 PERCENT OF NORMAL/ NORTHWARD INTO
THE REGION BY MON. FORCINGS FOR CONVERGENCE/LIFT AHEAD OF THE SFC-
MID LEVEL TROUGH BEGIN TO SPREAD EAST INTO THE FCST AREA MON...THEN
TRANSLATE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE FCST AREA MON NIGHT INTO THU. WITH
THE DEEP MOISTURE/ NEARLY SATURATED AIRMASS AND THE IMPROVED MODEL
CONSENSUS...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES IN THE 25 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE MUCH OF
THE MON NIGHT THRU WED PERIOD LOOK GOOD AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER THIS
TIMING SUBJECT TO CHANGE IF TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLOW. INSTABILITY IS
QUESTIONABLE BY TUE AND BEYOND...WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS MOIST-
ADIABATIC FROM THE SFC-500MB AND AREA LOOKING TO BE UNDER RATHER
PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER. FOR NOW CONTINUED AN ISOLATED TSRA MENTION
FOR TUE THRU THU. T GRIDS. DID RAISE HIGHS A BIT MON/TUE WITH THE
DEEP SOUTH FLOW AND POTENTIAL TO BE DRY THESE DAYS.

.AVIATION...
1115 PM CDT THU MAR 15 2012

POTENTIAL FOR SUB 1SM BR OVERNIGHT-EARLY FRI MORNING IS THE MAIN
AVIATION CONCERN.

FOG PARAMETERS POINT TO KLSE FOR THE HIGHEST RISK OF 1/4SM FG.
PROBABLY TOO MUCH MIXING AT KRST TO DROP THAT LOW...PLUS THERE IS
STILL A GOOD T/TD SPREAD.

WILL CONTINUE THE 1/4SM AT KLSE. SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THERE MIGHT
NOT BE IMPROVEMENT AT KLSE UNTIL 16Z...WITH THE INVERSION NOT
BREAKING/MIXING OUT UNTIL 19Z OR SO.

FOR KRST...NOT SOLD THAT VSBYS WILL DROP BELOW 1SM...2 TO 3SM MIGHT
BE MORE REASONABLE.

.CLIMATE...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY
314 PM CDT THU MAR 15 2012

BOTH RECORD HIGHS AND RECORD WARM LOW TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE
EACH DAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS
CONTINUES TO RESIDE ACROSS THE AREA. AT THIS TIME...THE WARMEST
DAYS LOOK TO BE FRIDAY...SATURDAY...AND MONDAY.

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
314 PM CDT THU MAR 15 2012

WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.

SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION.....RIECK
CLIMATE......BOYNE/RRS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ALBANY NY

147 AM EDT SUN MAR 18 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL MOVE
SOUTHWARD OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY...PRODUCING
A SOUTHWEST FLOW OF WARMER AIR ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK DISTURBANCE
COULD TRIGGER AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY EVENING. FAIR WEATHER...AND UNSEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL THEN CONTINUE WELL INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 140 AM EDT...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION.
THE COMBINATION OF CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS HAS ALLOWED TEMPS
TO FALL INTO THE LOWER/MID 30S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LAKE
GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION AND SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...WHILE PERSISTENT
SOUTH WINDS HAVE HELD TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 50S WITHIN THE
CAPITAL REGION.

LOW CLOUDS WERE NOTED ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND ACROSS
NJ...AND WERE MOVING N ACCORDING TO RECENT IR IMAGERY. THE HRRR
AND RUC 13 ALSO INDICATE THIS MOISTURE/CLOUD POTENTIAL EXPANDING
NORTH INTO THE CAPITAL REGION AND CATSKILLS...AND PERHAPS PORTIONS
OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BEFORE DAYBREAK...SO EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME
MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THESE AREAS. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WHETHER THE LOW CLOUDS WILL
FORM FIRST AND REDUCE THE FOG POTENTIAL.

TEMPS SHOULD REACH MINS OVER THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS...BEFORE RISING
WITHIN THE CAPITAL REGION...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND EASTERN
CATSKILLS AS CLOUDS FORM.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
LOW CLOUDS SHOULD PERSIST UNTIL MID MORNING ACROSS THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY FROM AT LEAST ALBANY SOUTH...AS WELL AS ACROSS THE
EASTERN CATSKILLS...AND BERKSHIRES.

AFTER LOW CLOUDS AND FOG BURN OFF...EXPECT SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER
70S.

MAINLY CLEAR AT FIRST SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT AS THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL
TROF TRACKS OVER THE TOP OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...CLOUDS WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE...AND HAVE ALSO INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE AT NIGHT.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50.

ALTHOUGH SOME MODEL RUNS HAVE SHOWN FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE
PCPN ON MONDAY...LATEST 12Z RUNS HAVE DOWNPLAYED PCPN AMOUNTS SO
HAVE KEPT ANY POPS FOR MONDAY BETWEEN 20 AND 30 PERCENT. SKIES WILL
BE MOSTLY CLOUDY ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

HAVE KEPT THE CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS INTO EARLY MONDAY
EVENING...BUT AS THE TROF DROPS TO THE SOUTH...SKIES WILL CLEAR
MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50 ONCE AGAIN.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE IN PLACE ALONG THE
EAST COAST WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES PERSISTING UNTIL LATE
IN THE WEEK...THEN A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT AND A CUTOFF LOW
APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE LONG
RANGE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE...AND THE ENSEMBLES THAT A HIGH
AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL BE ANCHORED ALONG THE EAST COAST. AT THE
SFC...A BERMUDA TYPE SUMMER TIME HIGH WILL FUNNEL MILD AIR INTO THE
FCST AREA. THE GEFS HAVE H500 HEIGHTS 2 TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL. H850 TEMPS IN THE SAME TIME FRAME WILL BE 1 TO 3
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE WILL
PREVENT ANY BONAFIDE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT WITH THE BEST CHANCES SOUTH
OF THE NORTHEAST OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. HIGHS TEMPS WILL
FLIRT WITH RECORD LEVELS EACH DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO M70S IN
THE VALLEYS...PERHAPS EVEN SOME U70S TO NEAR 80F ON WED. OVER THE
HILLS AND MTNS...EXPECT M60S TO L70S. LOWS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL IN
THE M40S TO L50S.

FRIDAY...HPC/ECMWF CONTINUES TO SHOW A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SLIDING
SOUTH FROM THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY. THE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
IS NOT EXCEPTIONALLY STRONG WITH THIS BOUNDARY...BUT ENOUGH TO
WARRANT A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS. MEANWHILE...A MASSIVE
CUTOFF WILL BE MEANDERING CLOSER FROM THE TN/OH VALLEYS. SOME
SHORT-WAVE ENERGY WITH THE CUTOFF MAY INCREASE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST LATE IN THE DAY. TEMPS SHOULD STILL BE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL WITH M60S TO LOWER 70S OVER THE FCST AREA. THE AMOUNT
OF INSTABILITY IS SUSPECT AT THIS TIME...SO NO THUNDER HAS BEEN
ADDED YET TO THE FCST GRIDS.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...THIS TIME FRAME LOOKS UNSETTLED WITH
THE CUTOFF SOUTH OF THE REGION...AND ANOTHER NRN STREAM DISTURBANCE
MOVING IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND ONTARIO. IT IS UNCERTAIN
WHAT KIND OF PHASING GOES ON...BUT A DEEP MOISTURE FETCH FROM OFF
THE WRN ATLANTIC...AND CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE UPSTREAM COLD
FRONT...AND SFC WAVE...WARRANTED CHANCES OF SHOWERS FOR BOTH PERIODS.
MAX TEMPS COULD STILL RUN 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS
IN THE M50S TO M60S OVER ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND.

OVERALL...TEMPS WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL...WITH PCPN LIKELY BELOW
NORMAL FOR THE EXTENDED FCST PERIOD.

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL PROMOTE RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF RADIATIONAL FOG AT ALL TAF SITES LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY THIS MORNING. A BAND OF STRATUS IS MOVING
NORTHWARD UP THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE AT
KPOU IN THE NEXT HOUR AND AT KALB ARND 09Z AND REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL
14Z OR 15Z. CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT UNTIL MID
MORNING WILL GENERALLY BE VFR GIVING WAY TO IFR/MVFR WITH THOSE
CONDITIONS PERSISTING UNTIL MID MORNING AFTER WHICH VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT 06Z MONDAY.

WINDS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR SOUTHERLY
AT 4-8 KTS THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT...MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS DUE TO FOG AND LOW STRATUS.
MON...VFR/MVFR. SLGT CHC -SHRA.
MON NT-THU...VFR. NO SIG WX.

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION INTO AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK. EXPECT LIGHT WINDS...AND UNSEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD. ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD OCCUR
MONDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.

THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL RISE TO BETWEEN 90 AND 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT...THEN FALL TO BETWEEN 45 AND 55 PERCENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT. EXPECT SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY AT 5-15 MPH.

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. SNOWMELT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS WILL OCCUR...WHICH
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO WITHIN BANK RISES ACROSS SOME NORTHERN
RIVERS/STREAMS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS
ALBANY NY: RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874
MARCH 17: 75 DEGREES 1990 TODAY`S HIGH 62 DEGREES AT 3:35 PM
MARCH 18: 65 DEGREES 1966 (ALSO IN PREVIOUS YEARS)
MARCH 19: 75 DEGREES 1894
MARCH 20: 74 DEGREES 1903
MARCH 21: 78 DEGREES 1921
MARCH 22: 80 DEGREES 1938

NORMAL HIGH: MID 40S LOW: UPPER 20S

GLENS FALLS NY: RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949
MARCH 17: 69 DEGREES 1990 TODAY`S HIGH 58 DEGREES AT 3:39 PM
MARCH 18: 64 DEGREES 2010 (ALSO IN PREVIOUS YEARS)
MARCH 19: 67 DEGREES 2010 (ALSO IN PREVIOUS YEARS)
MARCH 20: 68 DEGREES 2010
MARCH 21: 68 DEGREES 1946
MARCH 22: 71 DEGREES 1946

NORMAL HIGH: MID 40S LOW: LOWER 20S

POUGHKEEPSIE NY: RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949
MARCH 17: 70 DEGREES 1990 TODAY`S HIGH 66 DEGREES AT 3:38 PM
MARCH 18: 72 DEGREES 2011
MARCH 19: 70 DEGREES 2010
MARCH 20: 74 DEGREES 1976
MARCH 21: 70 DEGREES 2010
MARCH 22: 71 DEGREES 1979

NORMAL HIGH: UPPER 40S LOW: MID 20S

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/GJM
NEAR TERM...KL/IAA/GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...GJM
HYDROLOGY...IAA
CLIMATE...IAA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

248 AM CDT SUN MAR 18 2012

.DISCUSSION...
902 PM CDT

MAIN ISSUES FOR THE UPDATE THIS EVENING...ARE WITH LINGERING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND A LARGER MORE ORGANIZED COMPLEX OF
PRECIP JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA.

RODRIGUEZ

//PREV DISCUSSION...
258 PM CDT

FOR NORTHERN IL/NORTHWEST IN...NEARLY FULL SUNSHINE IS ANTICIPATED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE CHALLENGE REMAINS
FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING IS WILL CONVECTION DEVELOP.

TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL YET AGAIN REMAIN MILD IN THE UPR 50S/ARND 60
DEGREES. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR YET ANOTHER VERY MILD AND NEAR
RECORD HIGHS FOR SUN AFTN.

CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST...MEDIUM.

BEACHLER

.CLIMATE...
925 AM CDT FRI

RECORD HIGHS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST HALF
OF NEXT WEEK. HERE ARE RECORDS AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE FOR ORD AND
RFD FOR NEXT FEW DAYS...

RECORD MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR CHICAGO
MAR 17 74 2009
MAR 18 74 1969
MAR 19 78 1921
MAR 20 76 1938

RECORD MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR ROCKFORD
MAR 17 74 2003
MAR 18 73 1945
MAR 19 78 1921
MAR 20 79 1921

NORMAL NUMBER OF 70 DEGREE DAYS IN MARCH FOR BOTH CHICAGO AND
ROCKFORD IS 1.2.

RECORD NUMBER OF DAYS WITH MAX TEMP 70 OR ABOVE IN MARCH
CHICAGO 9 IN 1945...6 IN 1910 AND 1907.
ROCKFORD 11 IN 1910...7 IN 1945.

RECORD FOR CONSECUTIVE 70 DEGREE DAYS IN MARCH
CHICAGO...5 FROM MARCH 12-16 1995.
ROCKFORD...9 MARCH 23-31 1910.

ALLSOPP/TRS

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...

* VERY LOW CHANCE OF AN ISOLD TSRA

IZZI

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...

UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHEAST FROM CENTRAL ILLINOIS
TOWARD NORTHERN INDIANA. SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA WITH THIS SYSTEM
EXPECTED TO PASS SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS...BUT COULD BE A NAIL
BITER AT GYY. GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LOW CANNOT TOTALLY
RULE OUT A RENEGADE SHOWER OR STORM CLOSER TO MDW/DPA/ORD...BUT
CHANCES ARE ONLY AROUND 10%. SYSTEM PULLS EAST AND SKIES CLEAR OUT
AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE WITH ATMOSPHERE GROWING UNSTABLE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ONCE AGAIN THERE IS ABOUT 10% CHANCE OF A SHOWER
OR STORM SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING BUT CHANCES ARE FAR TOO LOW
TO MENTION IN TAFS. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND SOUTHERLY
WINDS.

IZZI

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST

IZZI

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 00Z...

MONDAY...VFR.

TUESDAY...VFR WITH CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA ARRIVING TUESDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...OCCASIONAL SHRA/ISOLD TSRA. MVFR LIKELY WITH
PERIODIC IFR POSSIBLE.

FRIDAY...CHANCE SHRA. MVFR LIKELY.

MDB

.MARINE...
248 AM CDT

PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AS
REGION IS ANCHORED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE ALONG EAST COAST AND LOW
PRESSURE(S) OVER THE HIGH PLAINS/ROCKIES. WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY
BE FAIRLY LIGHT GIVEN THE STRONGLY STABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE COLD
WATERS...HOWEVER AS VERY STRONG LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO MANITOBA
TUESDAY SHOULD SEE SOUTHERLIES FRESHEN UP A BIT. THREAT OF LOCALLY
DENSE FOG WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH DEWPOINT
AIR MASS BEING ADVECTED OVER THE STILL CHILLY LAKE...WITH GREATEST
FOG THREAT OF NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN.

IZZI

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

1212 AM CDT SUN MAR 18 2012

.DISCUSSION...
902 PM CDT

MAIN ISSUES FOR THE UPDATE THIS EVENING...ARE WITH LINGERING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND A LARGER MORE ORGANIZED COMPLEX OF
PRECIP JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA.

RODRIGUEZ

//PREV DISCUSSION...
258 PM CDT

FOR NORTHERN IL/NORTHWEST IN...NEARLY FULL SUNSHINE IS ANTICIPATED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE CHALLENGE REMAINS
FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING IS WILL CONVECTION DEVELOP.

TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL YET AGAIN REMAIN MILD IN THE UPR 50S/ARND 60
DEGREES. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR YET ANOTHER VERY MILD AND NEAR
RECORD HIGHS FOR SUN AFTN.

CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST...MEDIUM.

BEACHLER

.CLIMATE...
925 AM CDT FRI

RECORD HIGHS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST HALF
OF NEXT WEEK. HERE ARE RECORDS AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE FOR ORD AND
RFD FOR NEXT FEW DAYS...

RECORD MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR CHICAGO
MAR 17 74 2009
MAR 18 74 1969
MAR 19 78 1921
MAR 20 76 1938

RECORD MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR ROCKFORD
MAR 17 74 2003
MAR 18 73 1945
MAR 19 78 1921
MAR 20 79 1921

NORMAL NUMBER OF 70 DEGREE DAYS IN MARCH FOR BOTH CHICAGO AND
ROCKFORD IS 1.2.

RECORD NUMBER OF DAYS WITH MAX TEMP 70 OR ABOVE IN MARCH
CHICAGO 9 IN 1945...6 IN 1910 AND 1907.
ROCKFORD 11 IN 1910...7 IN 1945.

RECORD FOR CONSECUTIVE 70 DEGREE DAYS IN MARCH
CHICAGO...5 FROM MARCH 12-16 1995.
ROCKFORD...9 MARCH 23-31 1910.

ALLSOPP/TRS

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...

* VERY LOW CHANCE OF AN ISOLD TSRA

IZZI

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...

IZZI

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST

IZZI

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 00Z...

MONDAY...VFR.

TUESDAY...VFR WITH CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA ARRIVING TUESDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...OCCASIONAL SHRA/ISOLD TSRA. MVFR LIKELY WITH
PERIODIC IFR POSSIBLE.

FRIDAY...CHANCE SHRA. MVFR LIKELY.

MDB

.MARINE...
239 PM CDT

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

317 AM MDT SUN MAR 18 2012

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM MDT SUN MAR 18 2012

MAIN FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE HIGH WINDS/FIRE WEATHER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH TONIGHT. SATELLITE SHOWING THE FLOW HAS
BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WEST COAST OF NORTH
AMERICA. SOUTHERN END OF UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG AND SPLIT OFF
FROM THE NORTHERN PORTION. WARM AND DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE OVER THE
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY.

EXTREMELY STRONG JET ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THE GFS
FOLLOWED BY THE ECMWF WERE DOING THE BEST WITH THIS. AT MID LEVELS
THE GFS AND UKMET FOLLOWED BY THE ECMWF WAS DOING THE BEST ON THE
HEIGHT FIELD AND ESPECIALLY THE PLACEMENT OF THE SYSTEM OVER CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA. ALTHOUGH THEY ALL TENDED TO BE TOO MOIST AT MID LEVELS.
MODELS WERE NOT DOING WELL WITH THE DRY LINE/LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
THEY TENDED TO NOT HAVE THE DRY LINE FAR ENOUGH WEST. THE HRRR
FOLLOWED BY THE RUC/CANADIAN WERE CATCHING THIS THE BEST.

TODAY/TONIGHT...WINDS AND FIRE WEATHER THE INITIAL PROBLEMS. MAIN
ISSUE IS IF THE AREA OF THE HIGH WIND WARNING NEEDS TO BE EXPANDED.
THE GFS WAS CATCHING THE 700 MB WINDS THE BEST WITH OTHER MODELS
NOT TOO FAR BEHIND. MODELS SHOWING VERY GOOD LAPSE RATES ALONG AND TO
THE WEST OF THE COLORAD/KANSAS BORDER. THIS PLUS THE AREA OF 50
KNOT PLUS WINDS EXPAND A LITTLE TO THE EAST DURING THE DAY. THIS
CORRESPONDING WELL TO THE EXPECTED POSITION OF THE DRYLINE WHICH
THE HRRR CONTINUES THROUGH 08Z TO HAVE A VERY GOOD HANDLE ON.

ALSO BELIEVE THE MODELS ARE OVERDOING THE MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER...
ESPECIALLY THE NAM. SO FELT THERE WAS ENOUGH EVIDENCE TO EXPAND THE
HIGH WIND WARNING A LITTLE TO THE EAST AND SOUTH. TO THE EAST OF
THIS AREA DEFINITE WIND ADVISORY LOOKS GOOD AND WILL BE CLOSE TO
HIGH WIND WARNING IN LOCATIONS NEXT TO THE HIGH WIND WARNING. DID
RAISE THE SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS SOME BASED ON THE GOOD COUPLING OF
LAPSE RATES AND STRONGEST MID LEVEL WINDS. HOPE THE MAV NWP IS NOT
CORRECT WITH SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 45 TO 51 KNOTS AT KITR AND
KGLD. BLOWING DUST LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET AND ADJUSTED THIS AREA
SLIGHTLY BASED ON THE LATEST DATA.

AS STATED ABOVE...THE HRRR CATCHING THE DEWPOINTS WELL. IT HAS THE
LOWEST DEWPOINTS IN THE CURRENT RED FLAG WARNING. SO LEFT THE RED
FLAG WARNING ALONE. HOWEVER...DAY SHIFT WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR AN
EASTWARD SHIFT OF THESE LOW DEWPOINTS. NEXT COMES THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES. AIR MASS IS VERY DRY THROUGH A SIGNIFICANT DEPTH THROUGH
THE DAY. THE AIR MASS LOOKS CAPPED IN THE EASTERN HALF THROUGH THE
DAY WHERE THE INSTABILITY AXIS SETS UP. BASED ON WHAT THE SOUNDINGS
LOOK LIKE AM NOT TERRIBLY EXCITED ABOUT THE CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE JET ON THE FRONT
SIDE OF THE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA AROUND 06Z. THERE IS ENOUGH
IN THERE TO KEEP A LOW CHANCE BUT EXPECT THE MOST WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE AND THREAT OF SEVERE ACTIVITY TO BE TO THE EAST OF THE AREA.
KEPT THE THUNDERSTORMS IN THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH THE LINGERING LIFT.
SINCE THE STRONGEST AND CLOSE OFF PORTION OF THE TROUGH IS TOO OUR
SOUTH...REMOVED THE PRECIPITATION ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE SYSTEM.
SOUNDINGS ARE VERY DRY AS WELL.

DID NOT HAVE LOT OF TIME TO LOOK AT TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY THE
MAXES. MODEL GUIDANCE IS WARMER AND THAT MAKES SENSE WITH A SLOWER
ARRIVING SYSTEM AND LESS CLOUD COVER. USED MAV/GFS SINCE IT DID VERY
WELL YESTERDAY.

MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...ABOVE MENTIONED JET LINGERS NEAR OR OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. SO KEPT THE
THREAT OF PRECIPITATION IN THERE DUE TO THE JET IS CLOSE BY.
OTHERWISE...KEPT THE REST OF THE AREA DRY THROUGH THE REST OF
THE DAY SINCE SOUNDINGS ARE VERY DRY THROUGH A SIGNIFICANT DEPTH.
SINCE LOOKS LIKE SYSTEM IS REMAINING RATHER FAR SOUTH...LIFT IS
WEAK AND/OR DISORGANIZED ALONG WITH A DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE...KEPT
THE FORECAST DRY FOR THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. AGAIN DID NOT
HAVE A LOT OF TIME TO LOOK AT TEMPERATURES BUT BELIEVE THE WARMER
GUIDANCE IS GOING TO WORK BETTER SINCE DO NOT EXPECT VERY MUCH IF ANY
PRECIPITATION AND LITTLE CLOUD COVER.

TUESDAY...NORTH WINDS AND SOME COOL AIR ADVECTION MOVES IN DURING
THE DAY SO TEMPERATURES WERE KEPT COOL/LOWERED. WINDS MAY GET A
LITTLE BREEZY BEHIND THE UPPER LOW TO OUR SOUTH. MODELS SHOW A
PRETTY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE PLUS LIFT REMAINS WEAK/UNORGANIZED.
HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT INSTABILITY COULD DEVELOP
OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. SO KEPT A
SLIGHT CHANCE IN THAT AREA AND REMOVED PRECIPITATION FROM THE REST
OF THE AREA.

THANKS TO ALL THAT COLLABORATED.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1254 AM MDT SUN MAR 18 2012

UPPER LOW WILL CUT OFF OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AT THE BEGINNING
OF THIS PERIOD AND SLOWLY MOVE EAST. HOWEVER IT WILL BE TOO FAR
AWAY TO IMPACT THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA. UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE
THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...RESULTING IN DRY
CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1044 PM MDT SAT MAR 17 2012

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A DEEPENING SURFACE TROUGH WILL KEEP
SOUTH WIND BREEZY OVERNIGHT AT KGLD AND KMCK. WINDS WILL INCREASE
SUNDAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 50KTS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS
A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM AT KGLD IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH SO WILL NOT EVEN PUT IN A CB GROUP THERE.
CHANCES ARE EVEN LESS AT KMCK. OTHERWISE CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR
WITH ONLY A FEW MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS.

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR COZ090>092.

RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR COZ252>254.

KS...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 9 AM MDT /10 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING TO 8 PM
MDT /9 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR KSZ001-002-013-014-027-041.

RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM MDT /10 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING TO 8 PM
MDT /9 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR KSZ001-002-013-014-027-028-
041-042.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR KSZ003-004-015-016-028-029-042.

NE...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 9 AM MDT /10 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING TO 8 PM
MDT /9 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NEZ079-080.

RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM MDT /10 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING TO 8 PM
MDT /9 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NEZ079-080.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR NEZ081.

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM....024
AVIATION...FS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

144 AM EDT SUN MAR 18 2012

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 145 AM EDT SUN MAR 18 2012

UPDATED POPS AGAIN TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT ACTIVITY OVER EASTERN
KENTUCKY. IR SAT SHOWS STORMS STILL GENERALLY MAINTAINING STRENGTH
BUT SOME WEAKENING IS STILL EXPECTED AS THIS AREA OF STORMS
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH
12Z THIS MORNING...AS THE LATEST RADAR IMAGERY REVEALS A NEARLY SOLID
AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EXTENDING FROM THE TENNESSEE BORDER
NORTHWARD TO THE MOREHEAD AREA.

GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE DONE FOR THE NIGHT.
THE BAD NEWS IS THAT THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE STILL CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A QUICK
CALL TO LOCAL EM/S AROUND THE CUMBERLAND COUNTIES REVEALED SOME MINOR
NUISANCE FLOODING AROUND PULASKI AND ROCKCASTLE COUNTIES AND HAVE
ISSUED AN URBAN/SMALL STREAM ADVISORY THRU 330 AM TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
NEXT WAVE PUSHING UP FROM NRN/CENTRAL TN.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 810 PM EDT SAT MAR 17 2012

AREA OF TSTMS MOVING INTO OUR SWRN COUNTIES AS EXPECTED WITH SOME
ENHANCEMENT OVER THE LAST HOUR. HAVE RECEIVED A COUPLE OF REPORTS OF
DIME SIZED HAIL WITH THESE STORMS AND HAVE UPDATED GRIDS TO BETTER
REFLECT POPS THU THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. STILL EXPECTING SOME WEAKENING
AFTER ABOUT 10 PM WITH THE LOSS OF INSTABILITY...THOUGH WITH A
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE NOTED MOVING INTO WRN/CENTRAL KY ON WV IMAGERY
CANNOT RULE OUT MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL UPDATE ZONES AND HWO TO HIGHLIGHT THE HAIL
THREAT THRU THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAINERS THAT COULD PRODUCE SOME LOCALIZED NUISANCE FLOODING THRU
THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 435 PM EDT SAT MAR 17 2012

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT SAT MAR 17 2012

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT SAT MAR 17 2012

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 135 AM EDT SUN MAR 18 2012

AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES
THROUGH 8Z TONIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTING WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS. CLOUD
BASES AT THIS TIME ARE RATHER HIGH...WITH CIGS OF 4-8K COMMON ACROSS
EASTERN KENTUCKY. BASED ON THE LATEST INFORMATION AVAILABLE...THIS
TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. THERE COULD BE
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR VSBYS WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS. AFTER A BRIEF
LULL IN THE ACTION EARLY THIS MORNING...A SECOND PERIOD OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AROUND 15Z AND LAST THROUGH THE END
OF THE DAY. THE RAIN WILL MOST LIKELY BE COMING TO AN END AROUND 1Z
TONIGHT. AFTER 0 OR 1Z TONIGHT...THE CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY BREAK UP AS
THEY MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST.

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM....GREIF
AVIATION...AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LOUISVILLE KY

106 AM EDT SUN MAR 18 2012

.Update...
Issued at 1030 PM EDT Mar 17 2012

Update issued at 653 PM EDT Mar 17 2012

.Short Term (Tonight through Sunday Night)...
Updated at 250 PM EDT Mar 17 2012

Temperatures will continue to be warm. Lows Sunday and Monday
morning will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Highs tomorrow will
be in the lower 80s.

.Long Term (Monday - Saturday)...
Updated at 245 PM EDT Mar 17 2012

Current records and forecast temps for Mon/Tues:

Mon(3/19) Tues(3/20)
Record/Forecast:
Louisville 83(1907)/84 85(1894)/83
Lexington 79(1945)/81 81(1894)/81
Bowling Green 86(1907)/84 85(1921)/82
Frankfort 81(1948)/82 82(1921)/83

.Aviation (06Z TAF Issuance)...
Updated at 106 AM EDT Mar 18 2012

The first round of scattered convection has pushed east of all the
TAF sites. The second round of scattered convection associated with
a mid-level shortwave is working into the SDF and BWG areas. Expect
the heaviest convection to be along and north of the Ohio River,
where the best forcing is located. LEX will see a short break in
activity before this second round arrives a little later this
morning. Upstream observations indicate VFR conditions and light
winds should prevail aside from thunderstorms. All of this will
shift east through the morning hours as the mid-level trough axis is
projected to be east of the TAF sites by about 15Z or so, with only
a shallow cloud deck for the afternoon hours. Could see some
isolated to scattered precip out of the afternoon development, but
will not mention in the TAFs at this time as confidence is not high
it will directly impact the sites. The cloud deck during the
afternoon should reside around 3500 to 4000 feet. Winds will remain
from the south and southwest through the forecast period, with
sustained speeds of 8-11 knots expected this afternoon.

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
$$

Update...........MJ
Short Term.......EER
Long Term........RAS
Aviation.........MJP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

135 AM EDT SUN MAR 18 2012

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 428 PM EDT SAT MAR 17 2012

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 428 PM EDT SAT MAR 17 2012

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 133 AM EDT SUN MAR 18 2012

FOG TO DEVELOP AT KSAW OVERNIGHT AS WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW
DEVELOPS...RESULTING IN IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS. WHILE ABUNDANT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AVAILABLE AT KCMX AND KIWD...DOWNSLOPE FLOW TO
INHIBIT FOG FORMATION THERE. LATEST TRENDS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR HAVE
SHOWN FOG DRIFING SE TOWARDS KCMX...SO WILL NEED TO MONITOR. HAVE
INCLUDED MENTION OF MVFR VSBYS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
PATCHY LIGHT FOG DEVELOPING WHERE REMAINING SNOWPACK LINGERS.
FOG/STRATUS AT KSAW SHOULD LIFT BY AROUND 14Z SUNDAY MORNING WITH ALL
SITES VFR THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AFTER THEN. LLWS WILL BE PRESENT
AT ALL SITES OVERNIGHT AND MAY OCCUR ONCE AGAIN AFTER 0Z AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES. LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH RH SHOULD ALLOW FOG TO
REDEVELOP AT KSAW...WITH FOG FORMING AT KCMX AS SE UPSLOPE FLOW
DEVELOPS. &&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...JLB
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...RJT
MARINE...JLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC

1253 AM EDT SUN MAR 18 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT THEN
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH MID WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1245 AM SUNDAY...LATEST RUC13 HAS A FAIRLY GOOD HANDLE ON
THE PRECIPITATION AT THE CURRENT TIME. THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL
STAY THE OUR SOUTH AND WEST AND OFFSHORE WITH LITTLE EXPECTED OVER
THE CWA. WILL LEAVE IN SMALL CHANCES TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY
OF SOME OF THE ACTIVITY NEAR RALEIGH MAKING IT THIS FAR EAST LATE
TONIGHT. OTHER ISSUE AT MOMENT IS LARGE AREA OF STRATUS AND FOG
WORKING ITS WAY SOUTH AND WEST...ROUGHLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE
HIGHWAY 17 CORRIDOR. WILL MONITOR THE NEED FOR A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY LATER ON...BUT CURRENTLY VSBYS LARGELY AROUND A MILE AND
A SPS HAS ALREADY BEEN ISSUED FOR THE OUTER BANKS.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM SATURDAY...REMNANTS OF THE FRONT WILL BE S OF REGION
SUNDAY. MDLS SHOW BETTER MOISTURE CONTINUING OVER SRN AND INLAND
AREAS AND EXPECT WITH SOME INSTAB WILL HAVE SCT SHRA/TSRA THESE
AREAS. FURTHER N ATMS IS DRIER AND MORE STABLE SO HAVE KEPT POPS
OUT OF THE NRN TIER AND IMD CST. ONCE MORN FOG/ST BURNS OFF TEMPS
WILL RISE TO THE MID AND UPR 70S SW...WITH ONSHORE FLOW NE
SECTIONS WILL ONLY REACH THE LOW/MID 60S.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SAT...AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL BE PRESENT TO START
THE LONG TERM WITH A LONGWAVE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE ERN CONUS AND A
DEEP UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE WRN CONUS. A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
RIDES OVER THE RIDGE SUN AND REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SFC HIGH PRES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC SLOWLY
MIGRATES SWD INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH A COASTAL TROUGH
LINGERING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN
DOMINANT BUT SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL PRESENT EACH
AFTERNOON FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM TO DEVELOP ACROSS
INLAND AREAS AND ENHANCED CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF THE GULF
STREAM DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. FORCING WILL BE WEAK WITH
CONVECTION MAINLY DRIVEN BY THE SEA/LAND BREEZE CIRCULATION. SOME
MODELS BRINGING THE COASTAL TROUGH TOWARD THE COAST EARLY TUE OR
EARLY WED (DEPENDING ON THE MODEL) AS THE HIGH MIGRATES SWD AND
COULD SEE A FEW SHOWER APPROACH COASTAL AREAS THOSE MORNINGS. WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH LOW LEVEL RH`S COULD SEE FOG DEVELOP EACH
MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAIN THE AFTERNOON
BEFORE.

BY AROUND NEXT WED...THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE W
DEVELOPS INTO A CUT-OFF LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND SLOWLY
PUSHES EWD THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. AS IS ALWAYS THE
CASE...MODELS OFFERING A WIDE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS AS TO THE
PROGRESSION LOW EWD AND TIMING OF IMPACTS ACROSS THE REGION.
ENSEMBLE MEAN GENERALLY SUPPORTS TIMING ON THE SLOWER SIDE OF
MODEL SOLUTIONS AND AT THIS TIME EXPECTING MAIN IMPACT TO AFFECT
ERN NC FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. COULD SEE A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY
SEVERE STORMS DEVELOP IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH
THE PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW DETERMINING BEST UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT.

TEMPS CONTINUE TO BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
LONG TERM WITH LITTLE DAY TO DAY VARIATION. EXPECT HIGHS INLAND
REACHING THE M70S TO M60S COAST AND LOWS IN THE 50S.

.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1235 AM SUNDAY...LARGE AREA OF STRATUS AND FOG ADVECTING
SOUTH AND WEST FROM THE OUTER BANKS AND EXPECTED AT ALL OF THE TAF
SITES WITH IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS BECOMING WIDESPREAD BY 06Z.
EXPECT IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS TO LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH ANY
FOG BURNING OFF BY MID MORNING...WITH MVFR BKN STRATUS DECK
LINGERING INTO THE LATE MORNING. LIGHT NELY/ELY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
SUNDAY.

LONG TERM /SUN NIGHT THROUGH THU/
AS OF 300 PM SAT...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH LIGHT WINDS
DUE TO SFC HIGH NEARBY. WIDELY SCT MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
CONVECTION MAY LOWER CIGS/VSBYS TO MVFR/IFR AT TIMES. FOG IS
POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT
RECEIVE RAINFALL.

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1235 AM SUNDAY...NE WINDS CONTINUE AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH
SEAS GENERALLY 2 TO 4 FEET WITH A ROLLING 9 TO 11 SECOND SWELL AS
OF 04Z. MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO CURRENT MARINE FORECAST...MAINLY
A SLIGHT UPTICK OF WINDS OVER THE SOUNDS AND NORTHERN WATERS BASED
ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING A BIT
MORE OF A GRADIENT OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS.

LONG TERM /SUN NIGHT THROUGH THU/
AS OF 300 PM SAT...LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW EXPECTED OVER THE WATERS
INITIALLY THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH PRES RIDGES SOUTH THROUGH THE
COASTAL WATERS. THE SFC HIGH WILL DRIFT SWD AFTER MON WITH WINDS
BECOMING SELY TUE AND WED...THEN TRENDING TO SLY THU. WINDS
INITIALLY AOB 10 KT BUT MODELS A LITTLE STRONGER WITH THE HIGH INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND PRODUCE WINDS AROUND 10-15 KT. SEAS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE 2-4 FT.

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...CTC/SK/LEP
MARINE...CTC/SK/LEP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND FORKS ND

345 AM CDT SUN MAR 18 2012

.SHORT TERM...
BIG CHALLENGE IS EARLY ON TODAY REGARDING THE EXTENT OF MORNING
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS. RAPID REFRESH MODEL DOING QUITE WELL AGAIN IN
HANDLING DEVELOPMENT. FOG AREA FORMED NR 06Z AROUND DEVILS LAKE TO
HARVEY...AND THIS AREA EXPANDING A BIT EAST TO GRAFTON AT 08Z WITH
FOG DEVELOPING SOUTHWARD IN A NARROW ZONE ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
RED RIVER VALLEY THROUGH GRAND FORKS AIR BASE TO ORISKA-BUFFALO
ND BTWN VALLEY CITY AND FARGO. RR MODEL SHOWED THIS QUITE WELL.
THIS INITIAL FOG FORMATION AREA IS VERY NEAR THE FRONTAL ZONE
WHICH PER OBS EXTENDS FROM ABOUT FLAG ISLAND TO PEMBINA THEN TO
DEVILS LAKE WITH EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS NORTH OF FRONT AND SOUTHEAST
WINDS SOUTH OF IT.

OTHERWISE THE CLEAR SKY. ISSUE SEEMS TO BE IN LOCALIZED AREAS THAT
CAN DROP BLO 5 KT WIND....THAT IS THE CATALYST FOR TEMPS TO DROP
QUICKLY TO WELL BELOW THE EVENING DEW PT AND FOG TO FORM. RR MODEL
HAS LOW CLOUD CLOUD/FOG AREA HOLDING IN THIS AREA WITH SOME
EXTENSION SOUTH TOWARD LISBON. ALSO IT PICKS UP ON THE STRATOCU
FORMING IN NEBRASKA AND RACES IT NORTH THRU ERN SD INTO SE ND
TOWARD 12Z-13Z IN ZONE OF 40-45 KT LOW LEVEL JET. THEN IT HAS SLOW
DISSIPATION OF FOG/CLOUDS THRU LATE MORNING WITH LAST PLACE TO
CLEAR OUT THIS AFTN BEING THE DVL BASIN. THUS WILL TREND COOLEST
TEMPS IN THAT REGION TODAY WITH MOSTLY 70-75 OVER THE REST OF THE
AREA.

IN TERMS OF PRECIP CHANCES THEY LOOK AWFULLY LOW. GFS/NAM MODEL
HAVE QUITE STABLE SOUNDINGS ABOVE THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION TODAY
WITH NEGATIVE CAPE HIGHER THAN POSITIVE CAPES IN MOST AREAS. LACK
OF ANY FORCING AS WELL SO COORD WITH BIS AND REMOVED MENTION. HAVE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BUT 850-500 MB LAYER QUITE WARM TO GET TOO MUCH
GOING WITHOUT ANY FRONT. DOES APPEAR AS WELL FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH
OUT OF THE NW FCST AREA BY LATE MORNING.

LOW LEVEL JET OF 40-50 KTS WILL BE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND SFC
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN UP IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE WITH GUSTS IN THE
VALLEY. THUS THREAT FOR FOG SEEMS VERY LOW.

MOST MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN HAVING A SHORT WAVE RIDE NORTH
INTO CNTRL ND MONDAY AFTN WITH SURGE OF MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION
OVER FAR ERN ND INTO MOST OF MINNESOTA MONDAY AFTN-EVE. DRY SLOT
WILL WORK EAST GRADUALLY MON NIGHT. 00Z EC MODEL IS A BIT SLOWER
AND HAS MORE PRECIP IN ERN ND THAN OTHER MODELS WHICH SHOW MORE IN
MINNESOTA THAN NORTH DAKOTA. CHAT WITH HPC QPF DAY 2 REVEALS IDEA
OF GOING LESS THAN ECMWF QPF SHOWS. EITHER WAY NOT A BIG EVENT
PRECIP WISE WITH MOST MODELS HAVING 0.10 TO 0.33 INCH WITH PERAPS
A BIT HIGHER IN THE EASTERN FCST AREA WHERE PRECIP WILL LINGER
LONGER. SHOWWALTERS AND OTHER THUNDERSTORM INDICIES ARE NOT THAT
IMPRESSIVE MONDAY AFTN BUT ENOUGH FOR SOME THUNDER.

WILL LINGER PRECIP CHANCES IN ERN FCST AREA TUESDAY...O/W DRY WITH
SOME CLEARING OVER ERN ND. TEMPS A BIT COOLER BUT STILL WAY ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT IN SLOWLY CLOSING OFF THE
UPPER SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND TRANSLATING IT EASTWARD BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD...WITH THE GFS STILL A BIT SLOWER. IT APPEARS MILD
AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH PREDOMINANTLY ZONAL
MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
IN THUR NIGHT MAINLY IN MN AS ECMWF/GFS BRING THE PRECIP SHIELD
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS NORTHWARD.
HIGHS IN THE 50S/LOW 60S ARE EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
PERIOD WITH WESTERLY WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY BY THUR. ECMWF CONTINUES
TO BE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DRAGGING A FRONT INTO
THE REGION ON FRIDAY...WARRANTING LOWER TEMPS FOR SAT. WARM AIR
ADVECTION LOOKS TO KICK IN AGAIN JUST BEYOND THIS PERIOD.

.AVIATION...
A TOUGH FCST TO START THE DAY...ESP AT KGFK. GRAND FORKS AIRPORT
SEEMS ON THE EDGE OF DENSE FOG TO THE WEST AT GRAND FORK AIR BASE.
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN IF FOG WILL ADVECT EAST AND BE DENSE LIKE AT RDR
OR NOT. OTHERWISE LIKELY THAT KDVL AIRPORT WILL REMAIN IN DENSE
FOG THROUGH MID MORNING. KFAR-KTVF AND KBJI AND OTHER AREAS EAST
AND SOUTH OF THIS AREA STAND A BETTER CHANCE TO ONLY GET SOME
LIGHT FOG. THOUGH COULD SEE MVFR CIGS SPREAD NORTH IN LOW LEVEL
JET THIS MORNING AND AFFECT FARGO BY 12Z-13Z. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING
AND DURATION OF ALL THIS IS QUITE LOW. WOULD THINK MOST SITES WILL
BE VFR THIS AFTN AND LIKELY REMAIN VFR TONIGHT WITH SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST WIND 15 TO 25 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY.

&&
.HYDROLOGY...
THINGS WINDING DOWN WITH FARGO ABOUT READY TO PEAK JUST BELOW
FLOOD STAGE. DAYSHFIT CAN CHAT WITH RFC ABOUT FCST AS IT MAY WELL
NOT REACH FLOOD STAGE. HICKSON UPSTREAM FROM FARGO CRESTED OVERNIGHT.

STILL SOME RISES ALONG THE MAINSTEM RED DOWNSTREAM FROM FARGO BUT
WELL WITHIN BANKS.

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
RIDDLE/MAKOWSKI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON OH

215 AM EDT SUN MAR 18 2012

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
DIFFICULT NEAR TERM FORECAST AS MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING THE WEAK
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WELL ALONG WITH THE CONVECTION THAT THEY
ARE PRODUCING. HAVE BASED THE UPDATE ON THE LATEST MOSAIC RADAR
AND HRRR WHICH SUGGEST THAT THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS
OVERNIGHT WILL BE ACRS THE SRN ZONES. HAVE PLACED LIKELY POPS HERE
AND THEN TAPER POPS OFF TO THE N AND NE. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
OVERNIGHT AND WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S...LOWS WILL
LIKELY SETTLE IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S AS WELL...WHICH ARE HIGHER
THAN NORMAL HIGHS THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY PERSIST ON SUNDAY AS AN
EMBEDDED S/WV CRAWLS EAST ACRS THE REGION AND INSTABILITY LINGERS
INTO THE AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED DUE TO MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND RATHER WEAK WIND
FIELDS...THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT LARGE HAIL WITH WBZ HEIGHTS AROUND
9 KFT.

HAVE TRENDED THURSDAYS AND FRIDAYS HIGHS A LTL ABOVE GUID BUT OPTED
TO GO COOLER ON SATURDAY FOLLOWING ECMWF SOLN WHICH BRINGS IN COLDER
AIR.

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
H5 SHORTWAVE OVER ILLINOIS WILL SLOWLY UNDERCUT THE ESTABLISHED
RIDGE OVER THE REGION EARLY TODAY. NAM SHOWING A SURFACE
CIRCULATION UNDERNEATH IT BUT THIS APPEARS TO BE FAR-FETCHED GIVEN
THE H5 WAVE IS OPEN IN NATURE. THE WAVE IS EAST OF THE TAF SITES
BY 0Z AND THERE SHOULD BE A MARKED DECREASE IN SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AT THIS TIME.

ONGOING CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE FAVORED TO ONLY AFFECT KCMH/KLCK
IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS BUT THIS IS STILL OPEN TO A LOT OF
INTERPRETATION AND I AM NOT INCLUDING THESE SHOWERS UNTIL I AM
CERTAIN THAT THEY ARE GOING TO OCCUR. MODELS HAVE BEEN NOTORIOUSLY
BAD WITH THIS AIRMASS AND INITIATION AND/OR PLACEMENT OF
CONVECTION.

KEPT VFR CONDITIONS WITH A SCT-BKN CU DECK AOA 5KFT TODAY. EXPECT
ANY STORMS TODAY TO BRING ABOUT A HIGHER DECK OF 15KFT LATER IN
THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT. GENERALLY KEPT A VISCINITY SHOWER DURING
THE DAY AND DROPPED IT AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER SHORTWAVE.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY.

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO/HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...FRANKS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BLACKSBURG VA

1254 AM EDT SUN MAR 18 2012

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1130 PM EDT SATURDAY...

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 247 PM EDT SATURDAY...

MUGGY WITH TEMPERATURES 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY. TEMPERATURES
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY AS WE TRANSITION FROM CALENDAR WINTER IN
TO SPRING.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1224 PM EDT SATURDAY...

TEMPERATURE WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL AND GENERALLY IN THE 70S INTO
THE WEEKEND.

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1245 AM EDT SUNDAY...

BAND OF DIMINISHING SHOWERS CONTINUES TO PUSH NE TOWARD KLYH AND
EXPECT SOME SLIGHT VSBY REDUCTIONS AND POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS THERE
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. OTRW MOST OF THE AREA TERMINALS
REMAIN IN VFR ATTM BETWEEN INLAND MOVING STRATUS TO THE EAST AND
DEEPER MOISTURE WITH THE NEXT IMPULSE WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THIS
ALONG WITH SOME BREAKS SHOULD ALLOW FOR FOG FORMATION OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...AND THEN LOWERING CIGS...BUT LIKELY NOT UNTIL
NEAR DAYBREAK WHEN THE WEDGE STARTS TO DEVELOP OUT EAST AND THE
NEXT ROUND OF SHRA APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THUS LEANING TOWARD
DEVELOPING MVFR THRU ABOUT 09Z...THEN PERIODS OF SUB MVFR AT
TIMES AROUND 10Z-14Z IN FOG AND LOWER CIGS IN SPOTS

EASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP THE CLOUDS LINGERING LONGER OVER KBCB/KROA
AND POINTS EAST SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE WV
MTNS SCOURING OUT THE LOWER CIGS.

THE MVFR CIGS WILL RISE INTO LOW END VFR OUT EAST IN THE AFTN WITH
SOME THUNDER POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BUT MORESO ALONG AND
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE MORE HEATING AND INSTABILITY WILL
EXIST.

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...WERT
NEAR TERM...WERT/WP
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...JH/WERT/WP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED

NWS LA CROSSE WI

335 AM CDT SUN MAR 18 2012

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
335 AM CDT SUN MAR 18 2012

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON THE UNPRECEDENTED WARMTH AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT.

CURRENTLY AS OF 07Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED DEEP TROUGHING ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE U.S. AND RIDGING
OVER THE REST OF THE U.S.. WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN THESE
TWO FEATURES THERE ARE VERY FEW SHORTWAVES OF NOTE. ONLY ONE THAT
REALLY SHOWS UP IS OVER NORTHEAST ILLINOIS WHICH HAS BEEN PRODUCING
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS AROUND IT AND ALMOST INTO NORTHWEST
ILLINOIS. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW EXISTS UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE WITH
850MB WINDS OF 30-50 KT FROM OKLAHOMA INTO THE FORECAST AREA PER
PROFILER AND RADAR VWP DATA. THIS FLOW HAS ALLOWED THE UNPRECEDENTED
WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS TO REMAIN IN PLACE. AT 00Z...SOUNDING SHOWED
850MB TEMPS BETWEEN 13-15C FROM OKLAHOMA CITY TO MINNEAPOLIS AND
GREEN BAY. THESE ARE 2.5-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
FORECAST AREA...THUS THE RECORD HIGHS YESTERDAY. THE 850MB DEWPOINTS
WERE 10-12C...REFLECTING THE MOISTURE AS WELL AS THE CUMULUS THAT
FORMED UNDER CAPPING SEEN ON SOUNDINGS. SO FAR CLOUDS HAVE BEEN
RESTRICTED TO SOME BKN CUMULUS AROUND 800MB...MAINLY WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER AROUND THE CAPPING INVERSION. TEMPERATURES ARE
STILL IN THE 60S...AIDED BY DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S AND A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SUPPORTING A SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY BREEZE.
SURFACE PRESSURE ANALYSIS SHOWED LOW PRESSURE IN EASTERN
MONTANA...WITH WARM FRONTS EXTENDING NORTHEAST INTO NORTHERN
ONTARIO...AS WELL AS EAST TO MINNEAPOLIS AND SOUTHEAST TO CHICAGO.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...TROUGHING ALONG THE WEST COAST IS PROGGED TO
MOVE OVER THE ROCKIES BY 12Z MONDAY...CAUSING A DEEPENING OF THE
SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN MONTANA. THIS DEEPENING IN TURN INCREASES
THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW...CAUSING RIDGING INITIALLY TO BUILD
OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...BUT THEN THIS RIDGING SHIFTS EAST
TONIGHT. WITHIN THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW THAT DEVELOPS TONIGHT
ALOFT....MODELS SHOW A SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO AREAS WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER BETWEEN 06-12Z. THIS SHORTWAVE APPARENTLY IS NEAR
THE BIG BEND REGION OF TEXAS. BOTH THE 18.00Z GFS AND 17.12Z ECMWF
BRING PRECIPITATION INTO LOCATIONS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER...WHILE THE 18.00Z REGIONAL CANADIAN IS WEST OF I-35 AND THE
18.00Z NAM HAS NOTHING. INTERESTINGLY...THOUGH...THE 305K SURFACE OF
THE 18.00Z NAM SUGGESTS ISENTROPIC LIFT SIMILAR TO THAT OF THE GFS.
PROBABLY THE ONLY DIFFERENCE IS SATURATION WHERE THE NAM IS SLOWER.
GIVEN THE INCREASING MOISTURE TRANSPORT TONIGHT...FEEL BETTER TO
LEAN TOWARDS THE GFS SCENARIO AND HAVE SOME PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. LATER FORECASTS WILL NEED TO
RE-EVALUATE PRECIPITATION COMING IN TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...DRY
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED UNDERNEATH STRONG CAPPING. SHOULD SEE THE
TYPICAL DIURNAL CUMULUS DEVELOP BELOW THE CAP. 850MB AND 925MB
READINGS ARE PROGGED TO BE PRETTY CLOSE TO THOSE SEEN AT 00Z LAST
EVENING...MAYBE JUST 1C COOLER AT MOST. THEREFORE ANTICIPATING HIGHS
SIMILAR TO THOSE YESTERDAY. FOR TONIGHT...A BLUSTERY SOUTH WIND AND
HIGH DEWPOINTS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES UP SIMILAR TO THOSE
CURRENTLY.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...INDICATIONS ARE THAT PERIODIC ROUNDS
OF PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR DURING THIS TIME FRAME...ALL IN RESPONSE
TO UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE ROCKIES SLOWLY ENCROACHING ON THE AREA.
IT DOES NOT APPEAR THE TROUGH WILL EVER FULLY GET HERE...THOUGH...AS
MODELS FORECAST IT TO SPLIT APART TUESDAY NIGHT OVER THE PLAINS. A
PERSISTENT STREAM OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...NOTED
BY PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HOVERING BETWEEN 1-1.4 INCHES THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...WILL STAY OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND PROVIDE FUEL
FOR PRECIPITATION. THIS MOISTURE INTERACTING WITH 500MB HEIGHT FALLS
OF 10-20 METERS PER 12 HOURS FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...SURGES OF
ISENTROPIC LIFT THROUGHOUT...AND EVEN LOW TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
COME TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT ALL SUPPORT THE PERIODIC ROUNDS OF
PRECIPITATION. BEST CHANCES START OFF MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WEST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...THEN SLOWLY PUSH EAST FOR TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING CLOSER. WITH STILL SOME
DIFFERENCES EXACTLY HOW THE PRECIPITATION ROUNDS WILL EVOLVE...
MAXIMUM CHANCES ARE HELD AROUND 70. HOWEVER...LATER FORECASTS SHOULD
BE ABLE TO FIND BOTH TIME PERIODS AND AREAS OF FOCUS TO RAISE
CHANCES FURTHER. CAPE IS PRESENT DURING THE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
TIME PERIOD...THOUGH GRADUALLY LOWERS OVER TIME IN RESPONSE TO LAPSE
RATES BECOMING MORE TOWARDS MOIST ADIABATIC AND INCREASING CLOUD
COVER. ON MONDAY...GENERALLY MUCAPE IS 500 J/KG OR LESS...THEN DROPS
TO 300 J/KG OR LESS FOR TUESDAY. DEFINITELY WARRANTS A THUNDER
MENTION BUT COVERAGE SHOULD PREDOMINATELY STAY SCATTERED. DAY 2
OUTLOOK PULLED THE SEVERE RISK OUT OF OUR AREA FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY
3...AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN LIMITED INSTABILITY AND 0-3/0-6
KM SHEAR LESS THAN 25 KTS. REGARDING TEMPERATURES...LOWS ARE A
LITTLE EASIER TO FORECAST THAN HIGHS...SINCE THE CLOUDS AND HIGH
DEWPOINTS WILL HELP TO HOLD READINGS UP. SHOULD SEE SOME COOLING FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT OVER THE DAKOTAS MOVES IN. HIGHS
COMPLETELY DEPEND ON HOW THE PRECIPITATION EXACTLY EVOLVES. 850MB
TEMPS STAY 10-12C ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SO IF ANY SUN OCCURS
TEMPERATURES COULD EASILY GET INTO THE 70S. FOR NOW KIND OF FOLLOWED
A BLEND OF GUIDANCE...WHICH PRODUCES WARMEST READINGS IN WISCONSIN
WHERE A LITTLE SUN IS MORE LIKELY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
335 AM CDT SUN MAR 18 2012

GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT EXISTS AMONGST THE 18.00Z ECMWF/GFS/CANADIAN
AND GFS ENSEMBLES REGARDING THE UPPER TROUGH SPLIT FROM TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH ALL OF THESE MODELS NOW HAVING AN UPPER LOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE POSITION OF THE
UPPER LOW HELPS TO MAINTAIN UPPER RIDGING OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THURSDAY. DESPITE THE UPPER RIDGING...CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE AS THE MOISTURE STREAM REFERENCED IN THE
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT DISCUSSION GETS STUCK OVER THE FORECAST
AREA. IN ADDITION...THERE APPEARS TO BE PERSISTENT LOW TO MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS ACTING ON THE MOISTURE STREAM.

BEYOND THURSDAY...THE FORECAST BECOMES A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAIN. SOME
OF THE TROUGHING THE MODELS SHOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON
WEDNESDAY IS FORECAST TO EJECT OUT. TWO SCENARIOS EXIST:

1. THE 18.00Z GFS/CANADIAN AND MAJORITY OF GFS ENSEMBLES ARE FASTER
IN THE EJECTION AND MORE SHEARED OUT...WHICH IN TURN ALLOWS THE
MODELS TO MAINTAIN UPPER RIDGING OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
SUNDAY. IF THIS SCENARIO PRESENTED PANS OUT...SOME PRECIPITATION
WOULD REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE MOISTURE STREAM SLOWLY
DRIES UP AND THE FRONTOGENESIS WEAKENS...THEN DRY WEATHER PREVAILS
THEREAFTER. MORE IMPORTANTLY...850MB TEMPS COOL TO NO LOWER THAN 8C.
2. THE 17.12Z AND 18.00Z ECMWF SUGGEST THE PORTION OF THE TROUGH IS
SLOWER AND MORE POTENT...EVENTUALLY DIGGING DOWN THROUGH ONTARIO ON
SATURDAY. THIS SCENARIO STILL KEEPS PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE THROUGH
FRIDAY AND DRY CONDITIONS THEREAFTER...BUT 850MB TEMPS END UP
FALLING TO 0 TO -4C ON SATURDAY...COLDEST NORTH OF I-94.

IT MAY TAKE A FEW DAYS TO FIGURE OUT WHAT WHICH SCENARIO IS MORE
LIKELY TO OCCUR. FOR WHAT IT IS WORTH...THE ECMWF APPEARS TO BE
TRENDED MORE TOWARDS THE GFS/CANADIAN CAMP. FOR NOW HAVE STUCK WITH
A MODEL CONSENSUS APPROACH FOR BOTH PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURE
FORECASTS WHICH...FOR TEMPERATURES...KEEPS THE ABOVE NORMAL
CONDITIONS GOING BUT DEFINITELY COOLER THAN WE HAVE BEEN DEALING
WITH RECENTLY. ALSO...THE CFS V2 MODEL ENSEMBLE WHICH HAS DONE
EXTREMELY WELL WITH THE RECENT WARM SPELL LEANS MORE TOWARDS THE
GFS/CANADIAN IDEA...THOUGH THE GFS IS A MEMBER OF THE CFS.

.AVIATION...
1110 PM CDT SAT MAR 17 2012

LOW MVFR CIGS DEVELOPED ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN IA/MN EARLY THIS
MORNING...IN A REGION OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. CONCERN IS
THAT THIS REGION COULD SHIFT A BIT FARTHER EAST TONIGHT...IMPACTING
KRST/KLSE. LATEST RUC13/NAM12 SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THE
EASTERN EDGE OF THIS HIGHER MOISTURE COULD REACH KRST BY 09Z
SUN...BUT THE AXIS DOESN/T REALLY SHIFT OVER THE LOCAL AREA UNTIL
MONDAY NIGHT/TUE. IN ADDITION...NOT MUCH OF A NOCTURNAL INVERSION
TONIGHT INDICATED VIA BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...WITH ABOUT 15 KTS OF WIND
BY 100 FT. THE FOG POTENTIAL WILL BE LOW. LOW MVFR CIGS DO LOOK
POSSIBLE AT KRST BETWEEN 09-15Z OR SO...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS SHAKY
ON THIS. WILL KEEP IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW...BUT CLOSE MONITORING OF
SATELLITE/OBS WILL NEED TO BE DONE...AND UPDATES TO THE FORECAST AS
NECESSARY.

WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH MONDAY WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS VIA
MIXING OF 30 TO 35 KTS AT KRST...SLIGHTLY LESS AT KLSE.

.CLIMATE...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY
335 AM CDT SUN MAR 18 2012

ANOTHER DAY OF RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH
TEMPERATURES LIKELY CLIMBING UP TO AROUND 80. ROCHESTER WHICH HAS A
REALLY COOL RECORD HIGH OF 60 COMPARED TO ALL OTHER SITES AROUND THE
REGION WILL BE SHATTERED. IN FACT...ROCHESTER HAS ALREADY SET THEIR
RECORD HIGH FOR TODAY WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 66 AT MIDNIGHT. RECORD
HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO BE BROKEN TONIGHT AND GIVEN
CURRENT READINGS...WE COULD BREAK THE ALL TIME MARCH HIGH MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES AGAIN AFTER BREAKING THEM YESTERDAY.

MORE RECORD HIGHS AND RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. RECORD HIGHS DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE
BEFORE PRECIPITATION MOVES IN.

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
335 AM CDT SUN MAR 18 2012

WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.

SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION.....RIECK
CLIMATE......AJ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GREEN BAY WI

331 AM CDT SUN MAR 18 2012

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY.

LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW AN AMPLIFIED
PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA...CONSISTING OF A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE
WEST COAST AND STRONG RIDGING EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. A
SHORTWAVE IS ATTEMPTING TO UNDER-CUT THE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN
OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES...AND IS SENDING A CIRRUS
SHIELD INTO EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN. PRETTY QUIET UPSTREAM SO FAR
THIS MORNING. A CU FIELD HAS BEEN DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN MINNESOTA
AND IOWA ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK 850MB THETAE ADVECTION...BUT THE
ATMOSPHERE APPEARS CAPPED AT THE MOMENT. FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE
POP CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES.

TODAY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS ILLINOIS THIS MORNING WILL
MOVE EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES TODAY...AND SHOULD NOT
IMPACT THE AREA. OTHERWISE...WEAK 850MB THETAE ADVECTION WILL SHIFT
EAST OVER WISCONSIN THIS MORNING AND SHOULD BRING A CU FIELD
OVERHEAD. CROSSING MY FINGERS WILL NOT HAVE A REPEAT OF LAST
NIGHT...AS MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN STEEP THOUGH CAPPING WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING. INCREASING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS AND
700MB WARM ADVECTION WILL HELP A POTENT CAP BUILD BY LATE MORNING
ONWARD...WHICH WILL SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE ANY CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.
NO SIGN OF ANY MARINE FOG...SO WILL JUST KEEP A PATCHY WORDING IN
THE FORECAST. LOW LEVEL TEMPS ARE VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT THEY WERE
YESTERDAY. SO JUST BLENDED YESTERDAYS HIGHS WITH THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.

TONIGHT...VERY LITTLE CHANGES INTO TONIGHT. MID-LEVEL RIDGING MOVES
ON TO THE EAST...BUT LOOKS LIKE CAPPING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. WILL
START TO SEE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARRIVE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
LATE. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN OVER-DOING FOG POTENTIAL GREATLY
LATELY...AND WILL KEEP A MENTION OVER FAR NE WISCONSIN WHERE SURFACE
WINDS ARE PROJECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY MORE EASTERLY THAN THE SYNOPTIC
FLOW...AND COULD ADVECT MARINE AIR INLAND. LOWS MAINLY RANGING
THROUGH THE 50S.

MONDAY...HEIGHT FALLS START ARRIVING ALONG WITH A PRETTY GOOD INFLUX
OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROPICAL MOISTURE. PWATS WILL CREEP UP TO
1.5 INCHES WHILE THE CAP WILL BE ERODED OVER THE COURSE OF THE
MORNING. CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 60S
NORTH TO LOWER 70S SOUTH...AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH THOSE TEMPS
BY MIDDAY OR SO. WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE 70S...ML CAPES
WILL REACH AROUND 1000 J/KG WHILE CIN WILL BE ZERO. SEEMS LIKE A
GOOD RECIPE FOR PULSE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING WITH THE
HEAT OF THE DAY. 0-6KM SHEAR WILL ONLY BE IN THE 20-30 KT
RANGE...SO SHOULDNT SEE ANYTHING ORGANIZED...BUT WOULDNT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW STORMS FLIRT WITH NEAR WARNING
CRITERIA...MAINLY FOR HAIL. SE FLOW WILL HELP PROTECT THE DOOR AND
SOUTHERN MARINETTE COUNTY.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THRU SATURDAY. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES
ARE TEMPS...FOG POTENTIAL...AND PRECIP CHANCES.

MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE ON OVERALL PATTERN AS UPPER RIDGE SLIDES
TOWARD THE EASTERN SEABOARD EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND THE WESTERN U.S.
TROUGH CROSSES INTO THE PLAINS. UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL
ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.S. AND SOUTHERN CANADA MID-WEEK...AS CUT OFF
UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVES EAST INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS HIGHEST POPS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH-
CENTRAL WI MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...AS BEST FORCING
AND MOISTURE REMAIN SITUATED OVER EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI NEAR A
BAROCLINIC ZONE SAGGING INTO NW WI. EASTERN WI MAY VERY WELL STAY
DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IF CURRENT TIMING HOLDS...AS ONLY
A STRAY SHOWER/STORM WOULD BE POSSIBLE IN THE PERSISTENT SW FLOW.
AS UPPER LOW INCHES CLOSER MID-WEEK...DEEP MOISTURE ON THE
NORTHERN FRINGE OF IT WILL COMBINE WITH INCREASING LIFT FIRST FROM
AN UPPER JET...THEN FROM THE UPPER LOW ITSELF...TO KEEP HIGH
CHANCE POPS EAST AND LIKELY POPS WEST. NOT EXPECTING MUCH SUN
EITHER IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN. AS THE UPPER LOW
MOVES TOWARD THE EASTERN SEABOARD NEXT WEEKEND... WEAK RIDGING
SHOULD BUILDS ACROSS THE PLAINS...BRINGING DRY WEATHER BACK TO THE
REGION. THIS FAR NOT...NOT SURPRISING MODEL DIFFER ON THE DEGREE
OF AMPLIFICATION SO WILL NEED TO SEE HOW MODELS HANDLE THIS IN
LATER RUNS.

FOG POTENTIAL REMAINS ON LAKE MICHIGAN AS HIGH DEWPOINTS INTERACT
WITH THE COOLER WATERS. BASED ON THE PAST FEW DAYS/NIGHTS...NOT
MUCH FOG OVER THE BAY...AND ONLY PATCHY ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST WI.
DO NOT SEE MUCH CHANGE FOR MONDAY NIGHT...SO WILL CONTINUE TO JUST
MENTION PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE FAR NE AND BAY/LAKE. WILL LINGER
PATCHY FOG OVER LAKE MICHIGAN INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN INCREASING
WINDS AND PRECIP SHOULD REDUCE THE FOG THREAT.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED...WITH THE
WARMEST TEMPS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY...THEN CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL
KNOCK DOWN TEMPS FROM THE RECORD BREAKING READINGS. N/NE FLOW
WILL TAKE TEMPS DOWN SEVERAL MORE DEGREES FOR SATURDAY...BUT STILL
REMAINING 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. WITH A SLOWER ONSET OF PRECIP
ACROSS EASTERN WI ON TUESDAY...HAVE RAISED TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES
ACROSS EASTERN WI. AS 850MB TEMPS HOVER AROUND 12C...SOME SPOTS
COULD MAKE ANOTHER RUN AT 80 DEGREES IF WINDS REMAIN SOUTHERLY AND
WE CAN GET A LITTLE SUN TO HELP OUT.
&&

.AVIATION...PATCHY MVFR VSBYS DUE TOO FOG MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT
AND LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE
AGAIN.

TDH
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$
MPC/BERSCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PUEBLO CO

504 AM MDT SUN MAR 18 2012

.SHORT TERM...

(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

...HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED FOR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...WITH HIGH WINDS
AND VOLATILE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS...

LOTS OF HIGHLIGHTS TO TALK ABOUT IN THE SHORT TERM. UPPER TROF
ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD WITH NORTH SOUTH
ORIENTED UPPER JET ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROF AND TRANSLATING ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CO DURING THE AFTERNOON. QUESTION WILL BE HOW
STRONG WINDS WILL GET ACROSS THE REGION. SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS ACROSS THE PLAINS IN RESPONSE...AND HRRR AND LOCAL WRF
SUGGEST SUSTAINED SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 40 MPH SHOULD BE
ACHIEVABLE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. WITH DEEP MIXING...THERE WILL
BE THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO AROUND 60 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THERE IS STILL SOME CONCERN THAT INCREASING HIGH CLOUDINESS MAY
LIMIT THE GUST POTENTIAL SOME...HOWEVER...SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS
SHOULD MEET HIGH WIND THRESHOLDS OF 40 MPH. THUS WILL UPGRADE THE
WATCH TO THE WARNING...AND WILL ALSO INCLUDE THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS OF WESTERN LAS ANIMAS AND NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTIES AS WELL.
HIGH RES MODELS SUGGEST THAT SOUTHERN EL PASO AND PUEBLO COUNTIES
WILL COME UP JUST SHY OF HIGH WIND CRITERIA...SO WILL KEEP THEM OUT
OF THE WARNING NOW. HOWEVER...THIS AREA WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY
FOR FURTHER EXPANSION IF NECESSARY. WITH LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES...THESE CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN VOLATILE CONDITIONS FOR
FIRE SPREAD ACROSS ALL OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS. RED FLAG WARNING
HAS ALREADY BEEN ISSUED AND STILL LOOKS ON TRACK. NEEDLESS TO
SAY...ANY WILD FIRES TODAY COULD QUICKLY SPREAD OUT OF CONTROL DUE
TO THE VERY STRONG WINDS. AREAS OF BLOWING DUST WILL ALSO BE A
CONCERN...WHICH COULD REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO NEAR ZERO AT
TIMES...AND STRONG CROSS WINDS COULD POSE HAZARDS TO THOSE ON NORTH
SOUTH ORIENTED ROADWAYS THIS AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER AREA WITH POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS TODAY WILL BE ACROSS
THE SAN LUIS VALLEY. HAVE INCLUDED SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF
THE VALLEY IN THE HIGH WIND WARNING AS WELL. AS MOISTURE INCREASE
ACROSS THE AREA...HIGH BASED SHOWERS/-TSRA MAY HELP TRANSPORT SOME OF
THESE STRONG WINDS ALOFT TO THE SURFACE...RESULT IN GUSTS TO AROUND
60 MPH.

MEANWHILE...SNOW SHOULD RAMP UP EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
EASTERN SAN JUANS...THEN SPREADING INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE REGION BY AFTERNOON...AND INTO THE SANGRE DE
CRISTO MOUNTAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. HEAVIEST
ACCUMULATIONS WILL FALL ACROSS THE EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS WHERE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PROVIDE THE MOST FAVORABLE
OROGRAPHICS. TEN TO 20 INCHES OF SNOW WILL POSSIBLE ACROSS THIS
REGION...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS OF 5-10 INCHES ACROSS THE LA
GARITAS...AND THE SAWATCH RANGE AND CREST OF THE SANGRES. WITH
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES...COULD EVEN SEE SOME ISOLATED EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...AND HAVE INCLUDED -TS IN THE
GRIDS. THIS WILL RESULT IN LOCALLY INTENSE SNOWFALL RATES AT TIMES.

FINALLY...MODELS KEEP THE DRY LINE JUST EAST OF THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...THOUGH LATEST MODEL RUNS DO LOOK A TAD
FARTHER WEST...ESPECIALLY LATER TONIGHT. DEEP MOISTURE AND HIGHER
CAPE VALUES APPEAR TO STAY IN KANSAS...SO DON`T THINK WE WILL BE
DEALING WITH ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL. BUT DID MAINTAIN SOME ISOLATED
POPS ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN BORDER AREAS THIS EVENING. -KT

.LONG TERM...

(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)

MODELS IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT TONIGHT IN REGARDS TO THE
EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. ALL MODELS NOW BRING THE
MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND CLOSE A
LOW OFF ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO...INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON. SNOW WILL BE ONGOING MONDAY MORNING FOR THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW EXPECTED OVER THE SAN
JUAN RANGE. LIGHTER SNOWFALL WILL ALSO CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AND THE SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGE. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE
PLAINS LOOKS TO BE FIRE WEATHER. HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN LOW
HEADING INTO MONDAY WITH WIDESPREAD READINGS IN THE LOWER TEENS.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE PLAINS...AHEAD OF THE UPPER SYSTEM PASSING
TO THE SOUTH. WINDS WILL LIKELY GUST IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE
OVER THIS AREA. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH THE LOW
HUMIDITY VALUES TO PRODUCE DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

MODELS IN LINE WITH A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH OVER THE PALMER
DIVIDE BY 00Z TUES AND CONTINUING SOUTH INTO NEW MEXICO BY TUESDAY
MORNING. MODELS PRINTING OUT SOME LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW FOR THE
PALMER DIVIDE BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON...SPREADING SOUTH THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. GIVEN THE NORTHERLY
WINDS THROUGH THE MID LEVELS...THINK THE AREAS TO SEE PRECIP WILL
BE THE PALMER DIVIDE...LEE SLOPES OF THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND THE
RATON MESA. ALL MODELS FOLLOW THIS PROGRESSION WITH PRECIP COMING
TO AN END NORTH TO SOUTH TUESDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.
SNOW WILL ALSO DECREASE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING WITH MINOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS.

BEYOND TUESDAY...MODELS SLOW TO MOVE THE UPPER LOW OUT OF TEXAS
AND INTO THE OZARKS. HOWEVER MODELS HAVE CONVERGED ON A MORE
EASTERLY SOLUTION WITH RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE ROCKIES ON
WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THE NEAR STATIONARY PATTERN...EXPECT WARMING
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION WITH 70S ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH
THE LAST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS FORECAST TO
INCREASE LATE WEEK WITH ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS RETURNING
TO THE AREA. MOZLEY

.AVIATION...

MTN OBSCURATIONS WITH WIDESPREAD SNOW WILL SPREAD INTO THE CONTDVD
REGION THIS MORNING...CONTINUING THE EVENING WITH IFR TO LIFR
CIGS/VIS. MEANWHILE...WINDS WILL INCREASE AT THE TAF SITES WHERE A
PERIOD OF SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25-35 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 40-45 KTS WILL
CAN BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL LOWER AT KALS DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR -SHRA/-TSRA. AT THIS
POINT...THINK CIGS WILL REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY. SAME STORY FOR
KCOS WITH VFR CIGS MOVING IN DURING THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH THINK ANY
-SHRA SHOULD STAY WEST OF THE TERMINAL OVER THE PIKES PEAK AREA.
WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE WEST DURING THE EARLY EVENING AS THE
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WITH WINDS DECREASING...THOUGH STILL
REMAINING IN THE 15-25KT RANGE AT TIMES. -KT

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR COZ070-071-084-088-089-093>099.

RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR COZ222-226>237.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT
FOR COZ073-075.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM MDT MONDAY FOR
COZ060-066-067.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT MONDAY FOR COZ068.

31/88

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ALBANY NY

1030 AM EDT SUN MAR 18 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY...PRODUCING A SOUTHWEST FLOW OF
WARMER AIR ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK DISTURBANCE COULD TRIGGER AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TONIGHT INTO MONDAY EVENING.
GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER...AND UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
THEN CONTINUE WELL INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1020 AM EDT...THE LOW STRATUS IS HAVING TOUGH THIS MORNING
IN THE HUDSON AND CT RIVER VALLEYS. THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE
LOOP SHOWS THE STRATUS EXTENDING FROM THE SARATOGA REGION SOUTH
DOWN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...WITH SOME LOW CLOUDS IN THE
TACONICS AND BERKSHIRES...SE VT...AS WELL AS NORTHWEST CT.
THE 12Z KALB SOUNDING SHOWS THIS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED
BENEATH A STRONG INVERSION BTWN 980 AND 900 HPA. WE HAVE KEPT
THESE CLOUDS AROUND UNTIL ABOUT NOONTIME...AS THE SOLAR
ANGLE...MIXING FROM ALOFT...AND THE SUBSIDENCE /SINKING AIR/FROM
THE RIDGE WILL YIELD MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS IN THE AFTERNOON.
OUTSIDE THE STRATUS IS CONTINUES TO BE SUNNY WITH TEMPS WARMING
NICELY IN THE 50S AND L60S. WE RETOOLED HOURLY T/TD/RH/APPARENT
TEMPS BASED ON THE OBSERVATIONS.

SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH SLOW MOVING MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE/MCV ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY/MIDWEST MAY REACH WESTERN
AREAS BEFORE SUNSET. WILL NEED TO WATCH UPSTREAM RADARS CLOSELY
LATE TODAY...AS THE LATEST HRRR HINTS THAT SOME SHOWERS MAY REACH
FAR NW AREAS BY EARLY EVENING. WE HAVE INCLUDED SOME SLIGHT CHC
POPS IN THIS REGION TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MIXING HEIGHT POTENTIAL REACHING
BETWEEN 900-925 MB. THIS SHOULD ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH 70-75
ACROSS MUCH OF THE HUDSON VALLEY REGION...AND MOHAWK VALLEY...WITH
THE WARMEST TEMPS ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...WITH
GENERALLY 60S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT-MONDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL SLOWLY
APPROACH FROM THE W. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE 300 K SFC
SHOULD PROMOTE INCREASING CLOUDS THIS EVENING...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES LATER TONIGHT INTO MUCH OF MONDAY. IN ADDITION...EXPECT SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT ACROSS
WESTERN AREAS...AND FOR MOST AREAS BY LATE MONDAY MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. SOME WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY COULD ALLOW FOR
EMBEDDED...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...ESP ACROSS WESTERN AREAS SUCH
AS THE CATSKILLS/SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND MOHAWK VALLEY. ANY SHOWERS
THAT DEVELOP WILL BE SLOW MOVING DUE TO VERY LIGHT WINDS
ALOFT...SO ALTHOUGH AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL BE
LIMITED...LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWAT/S OF AROUND OR OVER 1 INCH...AND LIGHT WINDS
ALOFT. FOR TEMPS...GENERALLY WENT WITH WARMER MET MOS
TONIGHT...WITH 40S IN MOST AREAS...EXCEPT FOR LOWER TO PERHAPS MID
50S CLOSE TO THE CAPITAL REGION. FOR MONDAY...DESPITE MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES...EXPECT MAXES TO REACH THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S IN
VALLEY REGIONS.

MON NT-TUE NT...EXPECT ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS TO GRADUALLY
DIMINISH IN AREAL COVERAGE WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING MON NT.
MOST MODELS INDICATE SHORTWAVE TO WEAKEN...AND POSSIBLY RETROGRADE
FURTHER S AND W TUE INTO TUE NT...AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
STRENGTHENS. THIS SHOULD LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS ON
TUE...WITH MAINLY ISOLATED SHOWERS EXPECTED...ESP ACROSS THE
EASTERN CATSKILLS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY REGION. A WEAK
SIDEDOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS DEPICTED TO MOVE WESTWARD MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH SOME LOW LEVEL COOLING FOR TUE. THE MET MOS HAS
TRENDED MUCH COOLER FOR TUE MAXES...WITH TEMPS ONLY REACHING THE
LOWER/MID 60S IN MANY AREAS...AND EVEN HOLDING NEAR 60 ACROSS THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY. WE HAVE INDICATED MAX TEMPS A BIT WARMER THAN
THESE CHILLY MET MOS...BUT STILL COOLER THAN THE MAV MOS...WITH
GENERALLY 65-70 ACROSS THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...WARMEST TO THE
NORTH...AND LOWER 70S ACROSS THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY. FOR MON
NT...HAVE UTILIZED A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS...WITH 45-50 IN MOST
AREAS. AS THE HIGH REBUILDS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TUE NT...THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS SHOULD END. SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY AFFECT PORTIONS
OF THE REGION LATE AT NIGHT GIVEN A STRENGTHENING SSE FLOW. FOR
MINS...GENERALLY EXPECT MID/UPPER 40S IN MOST AREAS.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY DRY AND VERY MILD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING
SOME ALONG WITH UNSETTLED CONDITIONS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD...ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...EXPECT DRY WEATHER AS A LARGE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS FA AND THEN STARTS TO RETREAT TO OUR
SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE VERY MILD GENERALLY
AVERAGING AS MUCH AS 25 TO 30 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECT HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S
TO MID 50S.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
DROP SOUTH FROM SOUTHERN CANADA INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK BY FRIDAY
MORNING. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WITH PCPN WILL GO NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ALONG WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS MOISTURE AHEAD OF
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY DRY UP AS IT BUMPS INTO DEPARTING RIDGE. EXPECT
LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY
IN MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES OR OHIO VALLEY BY SATURDAY MORNING AND THEN
DRIFT SLOWLY TOWARD THE EASTERN SEABOARD LATE SATURDAY. THERE IS A
GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY WHERE THIS LOW WILL TRACK AS THE ECMWF HAS
THIS SYSTEM MOVING NORTHEAST UP THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY...WHILE
THE GFS TRACKS THE LOW EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS SRN PA. EITHER SCENARIO
WOULD RESULT IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...HOWEVER THE ECMWF WOULD HAVE
MUCH MILDER CONDITIONS FOR THE FA THAN THE GFS. FOR NOW HAVE CHANCE
POPS WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S AND HIGHS ON
SATURDAY IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A BAND OF LOW MVFR/IFR STRATUS HAS COVERED MUCH OF THE HUDSON
VALLEY...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH...IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL AROUND NOONTIME NOW. THE STRATUS WILL QUICKLY
ERODE ONCE THE SUN ANGLE BECOMES HIGHER IN THE SKY...AND MIXING
FROM ALOFT OCCURS.

CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY THROUGH THIS EVENING ARE
EXPECTED TO BE VFR WITH MAINLY P6SM SKC. EXPECT HIGH CLOUDS TO
INCREASE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF TONIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT FOG
RESULTING IN MVFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT AT KGFL AND KPOU.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT
4-9 KTS THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...
MON...VFR/MVFR. SLGT CHC -SHRA.
MON NT-THU...VFR. NO SIG WX.

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION INTO AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK. EXPECT LIGHT WINDS...AND UNSEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.

THE RH WILL FALL INTO THE 40-50 PERCENT RANGE WITHIN VALLEYS...AND
50-60 PERCENT ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE
RECOVERING TO 90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE RH WILL THEN FALL TO
50-60 PERCENT RANGE IN VALLEYS...AND 60-70 PERCENT ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TODAY AT 5-15 MPH. WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT...THEN BECOME SOUTHEAST ON MONDAY AT
5-15 MPH.

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. LINGERING SNOWMELT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS WILL
OCCUR...WHICH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO MINOR...WITHIN BANK RISES ACROSS SOME
NORTHERN RIVERS/STREAMS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS
ALBANY NY: RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874
MARCH 18: 65 DEGREES 1966 (ALSO IN PREVIOUS YEARS)
MARCH 19: 75 DEGREES 1894
MARCH 20: 74 DEGREES 1903
MARCH 21: 78 DEGREES 1921
MARCH 22: 80 DEGREES 1938

NORMAL HIGH: MID 40S LOW: UPPER 20S

GLENS FALLS NY: RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949
MARCH 18: 64 DEGREES 2010 (ALSO IN PREVIOUS YEARS)
MARCH 19: 67 DEGREES 2010 (ALSO IN PREVIOUS YEARS)
MARCH 20: 68 DEGREES 2010
MARCH 21: 68 DEGREES 1946
MARCH 22: 71 DEGREES 1946

NORMAL HIGH: MID 40S LOW: LOWER 20S

POUGHKEEPSIE NY: RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949
MARCH 18: 72 DEGREES 2011
MARCH 19: 70 DEGREES 2010
MARCH 20: 74 DEGREES 1976
MARCH 21: 70 DEGREES 2010
MARCH 22: 71 DEGREES 1979

NORMAL HIGH: UPPER 40S LOW: MID 20S

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/GJM
NEAR TERM...KL/WASULA
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11/WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...KL
HYDROLOGY...KL
CLIMATE...IAA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN

1035 AM EDT SUN MAR 18 2012

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

.SYNOPSIS...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT A PERIOD OF DRY CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW IN THEIR
WAKE. THE DRY SPELL AND UNSEASONABLY HIGH TEMPS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MID-WEEK. THAT IS WHEN THERE WILL BE A DRASTIC SWITCH IN
THE WEATHER PATTERN AND A RETURN TO MORE SPRING-LIKE WEATHER.
HIGHS WILL FALL INTO THE 60S AND 70S WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...

A SHORTWAVE STILL MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOUR AND THEN
WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY FROM HEATING WILL PROMPT CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. PULLED LIKELIES AS
COVERAGE CURRENTLY ON RADAR AND THAT SHOWING UP IN RUC AND HRRR FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY IS NOT SUFFICIENT TO JUSTIFY THEM. PUT
HIGHEST POPS IN THE NORTH THIS MORNING WITH ONE WAVE MOVING ACROSS
NORTHERN INDIANA NOW. TEMPERATURES COULD STILL REACH INTO THE UPPER
70S/LOW 80S WITH BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER SO DID NOT ADJUST AT THIS
TIME. INCREASED CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST BASED ON
SATELLITE TRENDS AND UPPER WAVE LOCATION.

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

THE ONLY FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY FOR MORE
RECORD BREAKING HIGHS.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR ENTIRE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH
RIDGING OVER CENTRAL INDIANA. THIS WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF
OPPORTUNITY FOR TEMPS TO SOAR INTO THE LOW 80S ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY DUE TO AMPLE SUNSHINE. TRENDED ON THE WARMER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

MODELS HAVE TENDED A LITTLE SLOWER IN BREAKING DOWN THE STRONG UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND MOVING THE UPPER LOW FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. PRECIP
WEDNESDAY NOW APPEARS VERY QUESTIONABLE. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSHOWERS OVER WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL SECTIONS LATE
WEDNESDAY AND DRY ELSEWHERE WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
MODELS GRADUALLY SPREAD PRECIP EAST ACROSS OUR REGION...BUT SOMEWHAT
SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS.

AS FAR AS DAY 7 SOME MODELS START TO MOVE UPPER LOW ON TO THE
EAST...WHILE OTHERS KEEP IT NEAR BY. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS DAY 7.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED...LEANED HEAVILY TOWARDS
PERSISTENCE WEDNESDAY AS UPPER RIDGE IS SLOWER TO BREAK DOWN.
CONSALL TEMPERATURES AND MEX TEMPERATURES HAVE ALSO TRENDED A
LITTLE WARMER MOST OTHER PERIODS IN EXTENDED AND WILL FOLLOW WITH
A BLEND OF THESE TEMPERATURES IN THIS FORECAST.

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 181200Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...

1430Z UPDATE...TIMED IN SOME SHOWERS WITH A CB GROUP STARTING AT
1545Z AND LASTING UNTIL 17Z BASED ON LIGHT CONVECTION UPSTREAM.
LIGHTNING STRIKES APPEAR TO HAVE DROPPED OFF ATTM BUT COULD PICK
BACK UP AGAIN AS THE SMALL CLUSTER OF CELLS REACHES KIND.
OTHERIWSE REST OF FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. NO OTHER UPDATES NEEDED
ATTM. PREV DISC FOLLOWS...

MOSTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. BUT THERE WILL BE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE NEAR THE ILLINOIS BORDER MOVES EAST ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA. PRESENTLY ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND...BUT WITH DAYTIME
HEATING WILL MENTION CB IN TAFS AT KIND...KLAF AND KBMG. CHANCES
ARE LOWER OF ANYTHING AFFECTING KHUF AND WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION
THERE.

FROM ABOUT 21Z ON ONLY SCATTERED CU AND SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH
CLOUDS. MODELS KEEP US UNDER A MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST PRESSURE
GRADIENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST AROUND 10
KNOTS TODAY AND SOUTH AROUND 5 KNOTS TONIGHT. DON`T EXPECT ANY FOG
ISSUES AS THERE WILL BE ENOUGH WIND TO MIX ATMOSPHERE A LITTLE.
HOWEVER A BRIEF PERIOD OF 5-6 MILES VISIBILITIES NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION AROUND SUNRISE TODAY AND AGAIN NEAR SUNRISE MONDAY.

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...JH/SMF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN

941 AM EDT SUN MAR 18 2012

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

.SYNOPSIS...

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

THE ONLY FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY FOR MORE
RECORD BREAKING HIGHS.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

AS FAR AS DAY 7 SOME MODELS START TO MOVE UPPER LOW ON TO THE
EAST...WHILE OTHERS KEEP IT NEAR BY. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS DAY 7.

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 18/12Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...JH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

908 AM MDT SUN MAR 18 2012

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 851 AM MDT SUN MAR 18 2012

UPDATE TO INCLUDE ADJUSTING TEMPERATURE AND WINDS THIS MORNING.
WILL NEED TO WATCH WINDS CLOSELY THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON GIVEN
HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. ALSO WILL NEED
TO MONITOR THE POSITION OF THE DRYLINE TODAY TO SEE IF RED FLAG
WARNING MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED FURTHER EAST.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM MDT SUN MAR 18 2012

TODAY/TONIGHT...WINDS AND FIRE WEATHER THE INITIAL PROBLEMS. MAIN
ISSUE IS IF THE AREA OF THE HIGH WIND WARNING NEEDS TO BE EXPANDED.
THE GFS WAS CATCHING THE 700 MB WINDS THE BEST WITH OTHER MODELS
NOT TOO FAR BEHIND. MODELS SHOWING VERY GOOD LAPSE RATES ALONG AND TO
THE WEST OF THE COLORADO/KANSAS BORDER. THIS PLUS THE AREA OF 50
KNOT PLUS WINDS EXPAND A LITTLE TO THE EAST DURING THE DAY. THIS
CORRESPONDING WELL TO THE EXPECTED POSITION OF THE DRYLINE WHICH
THE HRRR CONTINUES THROUGH 08Z TO HAVE A VERY GOOD HANDLE ON.

THANKS TO ALL THAT COLLABORATED.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1254 AM MDT SUN MAR 18 2012

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 543 AM MDT SUN MAR 18 2012

FIRST ISSUE WILL BE THE STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS THAT WILL DEVELOP
BY 18Z TODAY. STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT KGLD WHERE THE
BETTER LAPSE RATES RESIDE. EXPECT THESE WINDS TO PERIODICALLY
REDUCE VISIBILITY DUE TO BLOWING DUST. HARD TO PINPOINT THE BEST
TIME FOR THIS TO OCCUR OR EXACTLY WHAT VISIBILITIES WILL OCCUR. SO
BROADBRUSHED MVFR VISIBILITIES FOR MOST OF THE FIRST HALF OF THE
PERIOD. THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING WITH THE
BEST CHANCE EAST OF KGLD. EXPECT STORMS TO BE ISOLATED IN NATURE
WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH WHERE WILL INITIALLY FORM DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE WHERE THE DRY LINE WILL DEVELOP. AS A RESULT...ONLY PUT
CB IN DURING THE EVENING AT KMCK. FURTHER REFINING WILL BE NEEDED.

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ090>092.

RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ252>254.

KS...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT /9 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ001-002-013-014-027-041.

RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT /9 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ001-002-013-014-027-028-041-042.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ003-004-015-016-
028-029-042.

NE...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT /9 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ079-080.

RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT /9 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ079-080.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ081.

UPDATE...PMM
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM....024
AVIATION...BULLER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

548 AM MDT SUN MAR 18 2012