Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 03/16/12
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
1124 AM MDT WED MAR 14 2012
.UPDATE...CURRENT FORECAST TRENDS STILL ON TRACK. BATCH OF MID AND
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS PORTIONS OF PLAINS SHOWING SIGNS OF
DECREASING AS IT HEADS EAST. POTENTIAL FOR MORE HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
THIS EVENING. AIRMASS DRY WITH LOW HUMIDITY FOR THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS TO REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS.
&&
.AVIATION...SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA
AIRPORTS THROUGH THE EVENING. STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR A WESTERLY
PUSH OFF THE FOOTHILLS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS NOTED BY MOST SHORT
TERM MODELS. HRRR SHOWING LIGHTER WINDS...WITH DIURNAL EASTERLY
PATTERN. WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF CURRENT TAFS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 AM MDT WED MAR 14 2012/
SHORT TERM...VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST WITH THE
CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING MUCH OF
THE HIGH CLOUDINESS DEPARTING TO THE NORTHEAST. THERE IS SOME
MORE CLOUDS UPSTREAM WHICH MAY INCREASE OVER COLORADO LATER TODAY
AND TONIGHT. MAIN STORY FOR TODAY IS THE CONTINUED WARM
TEMPERATURES WITH READINGS EXPECTED IN THE 70S. THE RECORD FOR
DENVER TODAY IS 78...SO THINK WILL BE A BIT SHY ON REACHING THE
RECORD. HUMIDITIES WILL AGAIN BE VERY LOW...AND IN FACT THERE HAS
BEEN VERY LITTLE RECOVERY DURING THE NIGHT AS SURFACE DEWPOINTS
HAVE REMAINED IN THE SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE FRONT RANGE. THE WINDS
WILL ACTUALLY BE A BIT LIGHTER TODAY AS THE MID LEVEL FLOW AS
WEAKENED. SO EVEN THOUGH HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL AGAIN BE UNDER 10
PERCENT...NOT EXPECTING MAJOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS DUE TO THE
LIGHTER WINDS.
LONG TERM...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO BE PROGGED OVER
NORTHEASTERN COLORADO THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS WE ARE IN
BETWEEN TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN STATES AND RIDGING OVER THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN STATES. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP THE DRY AND
MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SATURDAY
AT LEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES
WARMER THAN NORMAL OVER THE AREA.
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST WILL DIG SOUTH SATURDAY THEN
BEGIN TO MOVE INLAND SUNDAY. THIS IS WHERE MODELS CONTINUE TO
DIVERGE ON THEIR SOLUTIONS. THESE MODELS ARE NOT ONLY DIVERGING IN
FROM EACH OTHER...BUT ARE ALSO DIVERGING IN THEIR OWN RUN TO RUN
SOLUTIONS WITHIN EACH MODEL. SOME ARE DIGGING IT INTO A CUTOFF LOW
WHERE AS OTHERS KEEP IT AN OPEN TROUGH. EITHER WAY...ALL MODELS
ARE HAVING THE UPPER TROUGH/LOW FEATURE MOVE OVER THE STATE IN THE
MONDAY AND TUESDAY TIME FRAME.
FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH
MOISTURE INCREASING. WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO SEE SOME ISOLATED SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...INCREASING
IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
STILL BE RELATIVELY WARM SO THE HIGH VALLEYS WILL LIKELY SEE RAIN
MIXING IN WITH THE SNOW...UNTIL MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH THE SYSTEM
ALOFT AND SNOW LEVELS DROPPING AGAIN.
OVER THE PLAINS...SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL BE INCREASING
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AHEAD OF THE UPPER SYSTEM. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THESE DAYS
FOR FIRE DANGER. HOWEVER A SLIGHT DECREASE IN TEMPERATURES EACH
DAY MAY HELP KEEP HUMIDITIES ABOVE CRITERIA. YET STILL THE EASTERN PLAINS
WILL LIKELY SEE GUSTS IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE ON THESE DAYS.
DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL SOLUTION COMES TO FRUITION...WE MAY SEE
THESE STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AGAIN ON MONDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO COOL OFF ENOUGH TO TAKE LOW HUMIDITIES OUT OF THE
EQUATION. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MONDAY AS SYNOPTIC
LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE STATE. AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH OVER THE STATE SOMETIME
MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY TO BRING EVEN COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A
MUCH BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. RIGHT NOW TEMPERATURES LOOK
TO STAY WARM ENOUGH FOR ONLY RAIN OR RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW TUESDAY.
AVIATION...VFR WITH UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES TODAY AND MAYBE
SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS INCREASING TONIGHT. SURFACE WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT UNDER 12KT FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST THIS
MORNING...THEN MAYBE A PUNCH OF WESTERLY WINDS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE GRADIENT TIGHTENS SLIGHTLY.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...D-L
LONG TERM....KRIEDERMAN
AVIATION...D-L
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
211 PM EDT WED MAR 14 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTENDED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH LATE WEEK
BEFORE A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DESCENDS INTO THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST THINKING. BASED
ON RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR AND THE GFS I HAVE ADDED AN AREA OF
CHANCE POPS ACROSS SE GA THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...THE CU FIELD
AND SEABREEZE ARE DEVELOPING AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION CONTINUES BELOW.
THE DEEP MOISTURE BOUNDARY IS QUITE NOTICEABLE ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY AND IN THE PWAT VALUES OFF THE 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM KCHS AND
KJAX. THE BOUNDARY CURRENTLY RESTS IN THE VICINITY OF THE ALTAMAHA
AND RUNS NEARLY WEST TO EAST WITH SOME ONGOING CONVECTION BACK
ACROSS CENTRAL AL/GA ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK AND SUBTLE SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DOWNSTREAM OF THE RIDGE AXIS. THIS ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE SLOWLY TO THE SE AS THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES AND SHOULD CROSS S GA
THIS AFTERNOON. SO...THIS FEATURE MAY PASS CLOSE ENOUGH TO OUR SE
GA AREAS TO PROVIDE SOME LIFT (ALBEIT WEAK). AT THE SURFACE...THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL
CONTINUE TO NOSE IN UNDER A OVERALL WEAK SYNOPTIC PATTERN. WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND VERY WARM LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES...HIGH TEMPS WILL
RISE TO ABOUT 10-12 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO. THE ABUNDANT SURFACE
HEATING JUXTAPOSED WITH THE COOL WATER TEMPS (LOW 60S) JUST
OFFSHORE SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR A PROMINENT SEABREEZE TODAY.
THIS SHOULD PUSH THROUGH IN TIME TO PREVENT TEMPS FROM GETTING OUT
OF THE LOW 80S WITH MUCH COOLER AIR BEHIND IT. I HAVE LEFT MAX
TEMPS AND HOURLY TEMPS ALONG FOR NOW AS THEY LOOK TO BE IN VERY
GOOD SHAPE.
AS THE SEA BREEZE MARCHES INLAND TODAY THE MAIN QUESTION WILL
REVOLVE AROUND THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP. GIVEN THE WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE PRESENT AND THE PLACEMENT
OF THE DEEP MOISTURE BOUNDARY...IT APPEARS THE AREA WITH THE BEST
CHANCE TO SEE ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS SE GA. THUS...I HAVE
TRIMMED THE SLIGHT CHANCES AWAY FROM MUCH OF SOUTHERN SC AND
LIMITED IT TO AREAS NEAR THE SAVANNAH RIVER AND SE GA. ANY STORMS
THAT DO DEVELOP HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO GET INTERESTING. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES (500 MB TEMPS AROUND
-17C) WITH VERY DRY 700-500 MB AIR. AS A RESULT LI VALUES WILL
REACH -5 TO -6 WITH CAPES REACHING UPWARDS OF 2000 J/KG. THE
ROBUST MID LEVEL DRY AIR SHOULD ALSO RESULT IN DCAPES IN THE
800-1000 RANGE. SO...ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP COULD BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS A DAMAGING WIND GUST.
I STILL ANTICIPATE THE OVERALL COVERAGE WILL BE LOW BUT WHAT DOES
DEVELOP COULD CERTAINLY BE STRONG TO SEVERE. WILL ADD A BRIEF
MENTION TO THE HWO TO HANDLE THE POSSIBLE THREAT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...THE SEA BREEZE WILL BE APPROACHING THE FAR INTERIOR
ZONES BY SUNSET WITH THE RISK FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS OCCURRING
AHEAD OF IT. ANY RISK FOR MEASURABLE RAIN WILL QUICKLY END AS THE
CIRCULATION GRADUALLY WEAKENS AND MOVES WEST INTO THE MIDLANDS AND
EAST-CENTRAL GEORGIA. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. FOG COULD
BECOME AN ISSUE AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT...SOME OF WHICH COULD BECOME
LOCALLY DENSE. WILL SHOW PATCHY FOG IN THE GRIDDED AND TEXT
FORECASTS TO TREND. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PROMOTE
MODEST RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS SO FAVORED THE COOLER SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOP. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S INLAND TO THE
UPPER 50S AT THE BEACHES. /77
THURSDAY....THE FORECAST AREA WILL BECOME LOCATED ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE ATLANTIC...
WHILE THE AXIS OF THE UPPER RIDGE LEANS INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
LIMITED MID LEVEL MOISTURE...AS WELL AS SUBSIDENCE WITHIN DEEP
LAYER RIDGING...WILL LIKELY SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE THEREFORE CAPPED RAIN CHANCES BELOW 15
PERCENT AT THIS TIME. RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT...WARM SOUTH/SOUTHEAST
FLOW...AND MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...AGAIN SUPPORT
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 80S AWAY FROM THE LOCALLY
COOLER COASTLINE.
FRIDAY...SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BEGIN TO BREAK THROUGH THE UPPER
RIDGE BY EARLY FRIDAY...AS A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
APPALACHIAN REGION. THICKER SKY COVER WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD WEST
TO EAST WITH DEEP MOISTURE INCREASING AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
SLIGHTLY LOWER HEIGHTS ALOFT WITHIN THE WEAKENED RIDGE...AS WELL
AS LESS SUNSHINE ACROSS FAR INLAND AREAS LATE IN THE
DAY...SUGGESTS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER IN
THE LOWER 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST. WILL ALSO INTRODUCE A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR INLAND
LOCATIONS...CLOSEST TO MOISTURE CONVERGENCE FROM THE SURFACE
TROUGH AND RESULTING UPSTREAM CONVECTION.
SATURDAY...A WEAK FRONT EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST/SOUTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...PULLED
BY A DEVELOPING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE VIRGINIA/NORTH
CAROLINA COASTLINE. THE WEAKENING FRONT WILL DESCEND TOWARD THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...BRINGING A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO MANY LOCATIONS. AS THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME DIFFUSE LATE SATURDAY...IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT PORTIONS OF THE GEORGIA COASTLINE COULD NOT SEE ANY
RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE MITIGATED BY MORE
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLY WEAK UPPER TROUGHING...LIKELY
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S NORTH TO THE LOWER 80S SOUTH OF THE
FRONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THE
DESCENDING/DISSIPATING FRONT ON SUNDAY. DRIER AIR WILL SHIFT INTO
THE REGION ACCORDINGLY. HOWEVER...ENOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE AND
CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES
AHEAD OF THE SEABREEZE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN
CONTROL OF THE PATTERN THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHILE A
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE ENTIRE EASTERN
UNITED STATES. MID RANGE MODELS ALL SEEM TO DEVELOP A COASTAL
TROUGH OF VARYING DEGREES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COAST...WHICH COULD
IMPACT MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND RESULTING RAIN CHANCES...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE COAST. PREFER TO KEEP POPS UNDER 15 PERCENT AT THIS
TIME...UNTIL BETTER MODEL CONSISTENCY LEADS TO HIGHER CONFIDENCE
IN SUCH DETAILS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY WARM
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES TYPICALLY
REACHING THE UPPER 70S AWAY FROM THE LOCALLY COOLER COASTLINE.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL INTO THE EVENING. I HAVE
ADDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR VICINITY SHOWERS AND A CB MENTION AT KSAV AS
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE SEABREEZE. THE LIKELIHOOD IS HIGHER AT KSAV COMPARED TO
KCHS SO I HAVE LEFT IT OUT THERE.
TONIGHT THE FOCUS ONCE AGAIN TURNS TO THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT. MODEL GUIDANCE IS MIXED WITH SOME INDICATIONS OF THE
POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG...AND OTHER INDICATIONS OF ONLY PATCHY
MVFR FOG OR SHALLOW GROUND FOG. AGAIN FOG CHANCES ARE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE COVERAGE OF CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO
DEPICT AT LEAST SOME DEGREE OF CLOUDINESS IN THE 4-6 KFT RANGE
WHICH MAY PREVENT VSBYS FROM GETTING TOO LOW. I HAVE ADDED MVFR
LEVEL FOG TO THE TAF/S THIS PACKAGE THOUGH FUTURE ISSUANCES MAY
NEED TEMPO GROUPS TO ACCOUNT FOR LOWER VSBYS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING FOG AND/OR LOW CEILINGS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...
A BROAD SOUTHERLY WIND REGIME WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE
WATERS REMAIN ALONG THE WESTERN FRINGES OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE.
WINDS WILL BECOME ENHANCED IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR AND NEAR THE
LAND/SEA INTERFACE THIS AFTERNOON AS A ROBUST RESULTANT FORMS AND
MOVES INLAND. WINDS SHOULD MAX OUT NO HIGHER THAN 15 KT. OTHERWISE
BOTH WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS THROUGH TONIGHT.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...EXPECT GENERALLY QUIET MARINE
CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY DUE TO A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN IN
PLACE...AS ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY DOMINATES. SEAS WILL
MAINLY FALL WITHIN A 2 TO 4 FT RANGE...MAINLY IN AN 8 TO 9 SECOND
EAST SWELL. CONDITIONS COULD BECOME FAVORABLE FOR SEA FOG DEVELOPMENT
ALONG THE COOL NEARSHORE WATERS LATER THIS WEEK...AS SURFACE
DEWPOINTS RISE...BUT PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW TO JUSTIFY MENTIONING
IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
134 PM EDT WED MAR 14 2012
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1018 AM EDT WED MAR 14 2012/
UPDATE...
WHATS LEFT OF THE FOG OVER W GA EXPECTED TO QUICKLY IMPROVE.
DECENT INSTABILITY FORECAST OVER W AND CENTRAL GA WITH THE MAIN
UPPER SHORT WAVE PASSING BY THIS MORNING AND ANOTHER MOVING TO FAR
NW GA LATE DAY. WILL JUST NEED TO MONITOR THINGS AS THE 12Z NAM IS
PRODUCING NO PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON AND SPOTTY LOW AMOUNTS TONIGHT.
FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES RUNNING 13-16 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
TODAY AND 1-3 DEGREES BELOW RECORDS. BDL
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 746 AM EDT WED MAR 14 2012/
UPDATE...
WILL SEND A QUICK UPDATE TO UPDATE POPS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
GEORGIA. PESKY SHOWERS IN HARALSON...POLK...AND PAULDING COUNTIES
ARE MAINTAINING THEMSELVES SO HAVE ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY.
TDP
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SHORTWAVE THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA LAST NIGHT CONTINUES TO
PRESS TOWARD THE COAST...AS RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.
OVERALL...SHORT- TERM MODEL MASS FIELDS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR BUT
HAVE SIDED WITH THE GFS AS IT AND THE ECMWF ARE IN BETTER
AGREEMENT... NAM IS A LITTLE FASTER AND A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE
WITH THE MOISTURE.
BEST DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE SHUNTED SOUTH TODAY BY THE EXITING
SHORTWAVE BUT WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 80S JUST ABOUT
EVERYWHERE PLUS PLENTIFUL SURFACE MOISTURE...MLCAPE VALUES THIS
AFTERNOON CLIMB TO ABOVE 1000 J/KG ACROSS THE AREA. HRRR AND LOCAL
WRF DO DEVELOP CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON BUT MAINLY LIMIT IT TO
THE SOUTHWEST CORNER. FOR THESE REASONS...HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS BUT KEPT POPS CONFINED MAINLY SOUTH. VERY LITTLE SHEAR
TO WORK WITH /LESS THAN 30M2/S2 0-6KM SHEAR/ SO DO NOT EXPECT
CONVECTION TO REALLY ORGANIZE...BUT LAPSE RATES REMAIN PRETTY
STEEP /AROUND 7C/KM/. OVERALL DO NOT REALLY EXPECT ANY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER CENTRAL GEORGIA DID SEE LARGE HAIL LAST
NIGHT SO IT CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT.
AS MENTIONED...HIGH TEMPS TODAY EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE 80S
JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE...WITH MID 80S POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY. TODAY/S
HIGHS REMAIN JUST BELOW RECORD VALUES BUT THURSDAY/S FORECAST DOES
INCLUDE SOME RECORDS...SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...THUS POPS RETURN TO NORTH GEORGIA LATE IN THE SHORT-
TERM. OVERALL A VERY SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN WITH WARM TEMPS...A MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER...AND A HIGH CAPE LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.
TDP
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUMMER HAS STARTED EARLY. A HIGH-AMPLITUDE RIDGE TAKES FIRM HOLD
OF THE EASTERN U.S. WITH GFS PUSHING 587 DM 500 MB HEIGHTS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALL EXTENDED MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE
CONSISTENT IN THIS...SO CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH FOR HIGHER THAN
NORMAL TEMPS. THEREFORE...I BUMPED MAX TEMPS UPWARD A FEW DEGREES
IN THE EXTENDED TO COUNTERACT MOS TENDENCIES TOWARD CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN MUCH HIGHER THAN NORMAL
FOR THIS PERIOD...SO INCREASED AFTERNOON POPS TO REFLECT
SCATTERED...SUMMER-LIKE CONVECTION FOR THE WEEKEND. GFS SLIDES
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MOVES INTO NORTH GEORGIA BY MONDAY...SO POP
CHANCES DIMINISH. AM NOT QUITE CONVINCED THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO
ELIMINATE PRECIP CHANCES...ESPECIALLY WITH ONSHORE FLOW BEGINNING
AS SURFACE RIDGE CENTERS ON MID-ATLANTIC SEABOARD EARLY IN THE
WEEK. WILL GO WITH /LOW/ MOS POPS FOR NOW...BUT THEY MAY BE TOO
LOW.
27
CLIMATE...
RECORDS FOR 03-14
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAHN 84 1918 33 1993 61 1933 16 1926
1918
KATL 82 1989 33 1993 64 1918 18 1993
1926
KCSG 84 1989 40 1993 65 1973 20 1993
1982
KMCN 85 1973 41 1993 67 1918 21 1926
1953
1918
RECORDS FOR 03-15
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAHN 84 1921 43 1960 62 1990 19 1993
1989
KATL 81 1973 39 1901 64 1989 20 1993
1946
KCSG 83 1989 44 1960 66 1973 21 1993
KMCN 86 1977 42 1960 65 1990 20 1993
1973
RECORDS FOR 03-16
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAHN 82 1945 37 1960 62 2002 19 1890
KATL 84 1945 34 1900 64 2002 18 1890
KCSG 85 2002 51 1969 65 2002 27 1988
1949
KMCN 87 1955 42 1900 65 1942 26 1916
RECORDS FOR 03-17
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAHN 85 1945 39 2005 62 1945 23 1924
KATL 86 1945 38 1892 65 2002 23 1895
KCSG 88 2002 45 2005 67 2002 30 1981
1954
KMCN 88 1945 44 2005 65 1908 27 1988
RECORDS FOR 03-18
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAHN 87 1921 45 1998 63 1908 23 1967
1941
1902
KATL 84 1982 30 1892 67 1908 20 1902
KCSG 89 1982 49 1988 64 1982 29 1967
KMCN 88 1908 43 1902 67 1908 28 2007
1941
RECORDS FOR 03-19
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAHN 86 1982 45 1947 61 1908 22 1892
KATL 85 1982 44 1892 65 1927 17 1892
KCSG 88 1982 52 2001 66 1948 30 1985
1960
KMCN 88 1963 49 1947 64 1982 26 1967
1945 1902
1927
RECORDS FOR 03-20
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAHN 86 1907 38 1906 62 1948 20 1923
KATL 86 1907 36 1906 67 1948 17 1923
KCSG 85 2004 46 2001 66 1982 31 1956
1996 1948 1949
KMCN 90 1907 45 1906 67 1907 23 1923
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH 4000-5000 SCT-BKN CONDITIONS.
POTENTIAL FOR IFR-MVFR VSBYS OVERNIGHT DUE TO FOG. SMALL POTENTIAL
FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT CSG/MCN AND POSSIBLY GET CLOSE TO ATL
AREA. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY WEST AROUND 5 KTS THIS AFTERNOON
BECOMING CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE THIS AFTERNOON EXCEPT LOW CONFIDENCE FOR
CONVECTION AND IMPACTS.
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR WINDS OVERNIGHT.
LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FOR CEILINGS AND VSBYS OVERNIGHT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 82 54 85 58 / 10 10 10 20
ATLANTA 80 61 83 62 / 10 10 20 20
BLAIRSVILLE 75 51 76 54 / 10 10 20 30
CARTERSVILLE 80 51 81 54 / 10 10 20 20
COLUMBUS 83 58 85 61 / 20 10 10 10
GAINESVILLE 79 57 82 60 / 10 10 20 20
MACON 83 54 84 58 / 20 10 10 10
ROME 82 52 81 55 / 10 10 30 30
PEACHTREE CITY 81 50 82 54 / 20 10 10 10
VIDALIA 83 57 85 59 / 20 10 5 5
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
1018 AM EDT WED MAR 14 2012
.UPDATE...
WHATS LEFT OF THE FOG OVER W GA EXPECTED TO QUICKLY IMPROVE.
DECENT INSTABILITY FORECAST OVER W AND CENTRAL GA WITH THE MAIN
UPPER SHORT WAVE PASSING BY THIS MORNING AND ANOTHER MOVING TO FAR
NW GA LATE DAY. WILL JUST NEED TO MONITOR THINGS AS THE 12Z NAM IS
PRODUCING NO PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON AND SPOTTY LOW AMOUNTS TONIGHT.
FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES RUNNING 13-16 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
TODAY AND 1-3 DEGREES BELOW RECORDS. BDL
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 746 AM EDT WED MAR 14 2012/
UPDATE...
WILL SEND A QUICK UPDATE TO UPDATE POPS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
GEORGIA. PESKY SHOWERS IN HARALSON...POLK...AND PAULDING COUNTIES
ARE MAINTAINING THEMSELVES SO HAVE ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY.
TDP
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SHORTWAVE THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA LAST NIGHT CONTINUES TO
PRESS TOWARD THE COAST...AS RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.
OVERALL...SHORT- TERM MODEL MASS FIELDS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR BUT
HAVE SIDED WITH THE GFS AS IT AND THE ECMWF ARE IN BETTER
AGREEMENT... NAM IS A LITTLE FASTER AND A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE
WITH THE MOISTURE.
BEST DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE SHUNTED SOUTH TODAY BY THE EXITING
SHORTWAVE BUT WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 80S JUST ABOUT
EVERYWHERE PLUS PLENTIFUL SURFACE MOISTURE...MLCAPE VALUES THIS
AFTERNOON CLIMB TO ABOVE 1000 J/KG ACROSS THE AREA. HRRR AND LOCAL
WRF DO DEVELOP CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON BUT MAINLY LIMIT IT TO
THE SOUTHWEST CORNER. FOR THESE REASONS...HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS BUT KEPT POPS CONFINED MAINLY SOUTH. VERY LITTLE SHEAR
TO WORK WITH /LESS THAN 30M2/S2 0-6KM SHEAR/ SO DO NOT EXPECT
CONVECTION TO REALLY ORGANIZE...BUT LAPSE RATES REMAIN PRETTY
STEEP /AROUND 7C/KM/. OVERALL DO NOT REALLY EXPECT ANY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER CENTRAL GEORGIA DID SEE LARGE HAIL LAST
NIGHT SO IT CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT.
AS MENTIONED...HIGH TEMPS TODAY EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE 80S
JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE...WITH MID 80S POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY. TODAY/S
HIGHS REMAIN JUST BELOW RECORD VALUES BUT THURSDAY/S FORECAST DOES
INCLUDE SOME RECORDS...SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...THUS POPS RETURN TO NORTH GEORGIA LATE IN THE SHORT-
TERM. OVERALL A VERY SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN WITH WARM TEMPS...A MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER...AND A HIGH CAPE LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.
TDP
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUMMER HAS STARTED EARLY. A HIGH-AMPLITUDE RIDGE TAKES FIRM HOLD
OF THE EASTERN U.S. WITH GFS PUSHING 587 DM 500 MB HEIGHTS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALL EXTENDED MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE
CONSISTENT IN THIS...SO CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH FOR HIGHER THAN
NORMAL TEMPS. THEREFORE...I BUMPED MAX TEMPS UPWARD A FEW DEGREES
IN THE EXTENDED TO COUNTERACT MOS TENDENCIES TOWARD CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN MUCH HIGHER THAN NORMAL
FOR THIS PERIOD...SO INCREASED AFTERNOON POPS TO REFLECT
SCATTERED...SUMMER-LIKE CONVECTION FOR THE WEEKEND. GFS SLIDES
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MOVES INTO NORTH GEORGIA BY MONDAY...SO POP
CHANCES DIMINISH. AM NOT QUITE CONVINCED THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO
ELIMINATE PRECIP CHANCES...ESPECIALLY WITH ONSHORE FLOW BEGINNING
AS SURFACE RIDGE CENTERS ON MID-ATLANTIC SEABOARD EARLY IN THE
WEEK. WILL GO WITH /LOW/ MOS POPS FOR NOW...BUT THEY MAY BE TOO
LOW.
27
CLIMATE...
RECORDS FOR 03-14
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAHN 84 1918 33 1993 61 1933 16 1926
1918
KATL 82 1989 33 1993 64 1918 18 1993
1926
KCSG 84 1989 40 1993 65 1973 20 1993
1982
KMCN 85 1973 41 1993 67 1918 21 1926
1953
1918
RECORDS FOR 03-15
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAHN 84 1921 43 1960 62 1990 19 1993
1989
KATL 81 1973 39 1901 64 1989 20 1993
1946
KCSG 83 1989 44 1960 66 1973 21 1993
KMCN 86 1977 42 1960 65 1990 20 1993
1973
RECORDS FOR 03-16
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAHN 82 1945 37 1960 62 2002 19 1890
KATL 84 1945 34 1900 64 2002 18 1890
KCSG 85 2002 51 1969 65 2002 27 1988
1949
KMCN 87 1955 42 1900 65 1942 26 1916
RECORDS FOR 03-17
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAHN 85 1945 39 2005 62 1945 23 1924
KATL 86 1945 38 1892 65 2002 23 1895
KCSG 88 2002 45 2005 67 2002 30 1981
1954
KMCN 88 1945 44 2005 65 1908 27 1988
RECORDS FOR 03-18
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAHN 87 1921 45 1998 63 1908 23 1967
1941
1902
KATL 84 1982 30 1892 67 1908 20 1902
KCSG 89 1982 49 1988 64 1982 29 1967
KMCN 88 1908 43 1902 67 1908 28 2007
1941
RECORDS FOR 03-19
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAHN 86 1982 45 1947 61 1908 22 1892
KATL 85 1982 44 1892 65 1927 17 1892
KCSG 88 1982 52 2001 66 1948 30 1985
1960
KMCN 88 1963 49 1947 64 1982 26 1967
1945 1902
1927
RECORDS FOR 03-20
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAHN 86 1907 38 1906 62 1948 20 1923
KATL 86 1907 36 1906 67 1948 17 1923
KCSG 85 2004 46 2001 66 1982 31 1956
1996 1948 1949
KMCN 90 1907 45 1906 67 1907 23 1923
AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
WIDESPREAD VLIFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA WITH DENSE FOG NOTED.
THE ONE EXCEPTION IS ATL...VLIFR CONDITIONS SURROUNDING THE
AIRPORT BUT ATL ITSELF HAS NOT DROPPED YET. BEGINNING TO SEE SOME
IMPROVEMENT...WITH VFR EXPECTED JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE BY 14Z.
ADDED VCSH TO THE METRO TAFS TO COVER ISOLATED CONVECTION ON THE
WEST SIDE OF ATLANTA. OTHERWISE...VFR FOR THE REST OF THE DAY WITH
SCT CU 3-4KFT THIS AFTERNOON AND LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS. GUIDANCE
HINTING AT ANOTHER IFR/LIFR VSBY EPISODE THURSDAY MORNING BUT FOR
NOW HAVE ONLY INTRODUCED MVFR CIGS.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...
06Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON WINDS.
MEDIUM ON CIGS/VSBY THIS MORNING AND AFTER 06Z THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE HIGH ON CIGS/VSBY.
TDP
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 82 54 85 58 / 10 10 10 20
ATLANTA 80 61 83 62 / 10 10 20 20
BLAIRSVILLE 75 51 76 54 / 10 10 20 30
CARTERSVILLE 80 51 81 54 / 20 10 20 20
COLUMBUS 83 58 85 61 / 20 10 10 10
GAINESVILLE 79 57 82 60 / 10 10 20 20
MACON 83 54 84 58 / 20 10 10 10
ROME 82 52 81 55 / 10 10 30 30
PEACHTREE CITY 81 50 82 54 / 20 10 10 10
VIDALIA 83 57 85 59 / 20 10 5 5
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
746 AM EDT WED MAR 14 2012
.UPDATE...
WILL SEND A QUICK UPDATE TO UPDATE POPS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
GEORGIA. PESKY SHOWERS IN HARALSON...POLK...AND PAULDING COUNTIES
ARE MAINTAINING THEMSELVES SO HAVE ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY.
TDP
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM EDT WED MAR 14 2012/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SHORTWAVE THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA LAST NIGHT CONTINUES TO
PRESS TOWARD THE COAST...AS RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.
OVERALL...SHORT-TERM MODEL MASS FIELDS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR BUT HAVE
SIDED WITH THE GFS AS IT AND THE ECMWF ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT...
NAM IS A LITTLE FASTER AND A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
MOISTURE.
BEST DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE SHUNTED SOUTH TODAY BY THE EXITING
SHORTWAVE BUT WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 80S JUST ABOUT
EVERYWHERE PLUS PLENTIFUL SURFACE MOISTURE...MLCAPE VALUES THIS
AFTERNOON CLIMB TO ABOVE 1000 J/KG ACROSS THE AREA. HRRR AND LOCAL
WRF DO DEVELOP CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON BUT MAINLY LIMIT IT TO
THE SOUTHWEST CORNER. FOR THESE REASONS...HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS BUT KEPT POPS CONFINED MAINLY SOUTH. VERY LITTLE SHEAR
TO WORK WITH /LESS THAN 30M2/S2 0-6KM SHEAR/ SO DO NOT EXPECT
CONVECTION TO REALLY ORGANIZE...BUT LAPSE RATES REMAIN PRETTY
STEEP /AROUND 7C/KM/. OVERALL DO NOT REALLY EXPECT ANY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER CENTRAL GEORGIA DID SEE LARGE HAIL LAST
NIGHT SO IT CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT.
AS MENTIONED...HIGH TEMPS TODAY EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE 80S
JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE...WITH MID 80S POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY. TODAY/S
HIGHS REMAIN JUST BELOW RECORD VALUES BUT THURSDAY/S FORECAST DOES
INCLUDE SOME RECORDS...SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...THUS POPS RETURN TO NORTH GEORGIA LATE IN THE SHORT-
TERM. OVERALL A VERY SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN WITH WARM TEMPS...A MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER...AND A HIGH CAPE LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.
TDP
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUMMER HAS STARTED EARLY. A HIGH-AMPLITUDE RIDGE TAKES FIRM HOLD
OF THE EASTERN U.S. WITH GFS PUSHING 587 DM 500 MB HEIGHTS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALL EXTENDED MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE
CONSISTENT IN THIS...SO CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH FOR HIGHER THAN
NORMAL TEMPS. THEREFORE...I BUMPED MAX TEMPS UPWARD A FEW DEGREES
IN THE EXTENDED TO COUNTERACT MOS TENDENCIES TOWARD CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN MUCH HIGHER THAN NORMAL
FOR THIS PERIOD...SO INCREASED AFTERNOON POPS TO REFLECT
SCATTERED...SUMMER-LIKE CONVECTION FOR THE WEEKEND. GFS SLIDES
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MOVES INTO NORTH GEORGIA BY MONDAY...SO POP
CHANCES DIMINISH. AM NOT QUITE CONVINCED THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO
ELIMINATE PRECIP CHANCES...ESPECIALLY WITH ONSHORE FLOW BEGINNING
AS SURFACE RIDGE CENTERS ON MID-ATLANTIC SEABOARD EARLY IN THE
WEEK. WILL GO WITH /LOW/ MOS POPS FOR NOW...BUT THEY MAY BE TOO
LOW.
27
CLIMATE...
RECORDS FOR 03-14
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAHN 84 1918 33 1993 61 1933 16 1926
1918
KATL 82 1989 33 1993 64 1918 18 1993
1926
KCSG 84 1989 40 1993 65 1973 20 1993
1982
KMCN 85 1973 41 1993 67 1918 21 1926
1953
1918
RECORDS FOR 03-15
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAHN 84 1921 43 1960 62 1990 19 1993
1989
KATL 81 1973 39 1901 64 1989 20 1993
1946
KCSG 83 1989 44 1960 66 1973 21 1993
KMCN 86 1977 42 1960 65 1990 20 1993
1973
RECORDS FOR 03-16
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAHN 82 1945 37 1960 62 2002 19 1890
KATL 84 1945 34 1900 64 2002 18 1890
KCSG 85 2002 51 1969 65 2002 27 1988
1949
KMCN 87 1955 42 1900 65 1942 26 1916
RECORDS FOR 03-17
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAHN 85 1945 39 2005 62 1945 23 1924
KATL 86 1945 38 1892 65 2002 23 1895
KCSG 88 2002 45 2005 67 2002 30 1981
1954
KMCN 88 1945 44 2005 65 1908 27 1988
RECORDS FOR 03-18
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAHN 87 1921 45 1998 63 1908 23 1967
1941
1902
KATL 84 1982 30 1892 67 1908 20 1902
KCSG 89 1982 49 1988 64 1982 29 1967
KMCN 88 1908 43 1902 67 1908 28 2007
1941
RECORDS FOR 03-19
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAHN 86 1982 45 1947 61 1908 22 1892
KATL 85 1982 44 1892 65 1927 17 1892
KCSG 88 1982 52 2001 66 1948 30 1985
1960
KMCN 88 1963 49 1947 64 1982 26 1967
1945 1902
1927
RECORDS FOR 03-20
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAHN 86 1907 38 1906 62 1948 20 1923
KATL 86 1907 36 1906 67 1948 17 1923
KCSG 85 2004 46 2001 66 1982 31 1956
1996 1948 1949
KMCN 90 1907 45 1906 67 1907 23 1923
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
WIDESPREAD VLIFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA WITH DENSE FOG NOTED.
THE ONE EXCEPTION IS ATL...VLIFR CONDITIONS SURROUNDING THE
AIRPORT BUT ATL ITSELF HAS NOT DROPPED YET. BEGINNING TO SEE SOME
IMPROVEMENT...WITH VFR EXPECTED JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE BY 14Z.
ADDED VCSH TO THE METRO TAFS TO COVER ISOLATED CONVECTION ON THE
WEST SIDE OF ATLANTA. OTHERWISE...VFR FOR THE REST OF THE DAY WITH
SCT CU 3-4KFT THIS AFTERNOON AND LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS. GUIDANCE
HINTING AT ANOTHER IFR/LIFR VSBY EPISODE THURSDAY MORNING BUT FOR
NOW HAVE ONLY INTRODUCED MVFR CIGS.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...
06Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON WINDS.
MEDIUM ON CIGS/VSBY THIS MORNING AND AFTER 06Z THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE HIGH ON CIGS/VSBY.
TDP
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 82 54 85 58 / 10 10 10 20
ATLANTA 80 61 83 62 / 20 10 20 20
BLAIRSVILLE 75 51 76 54 / 10 10 20 30
CARTERSVILLE 80 51 81 54 / 20 10 20 20
COLUMBUS 83 58 85 61 / 20 10 10 10
GAINESVILLE 79 57 82 60 / 10 10 20 20
MACON 83 54 84 58 / 20 10 10 10
ROME 82 52 81 55 / 10 10 30 30
PEACHTREE CITY 81 50 82 54 / 20 10 10 10
VIDALIA 83 57 85 59 / 20 10 5 5
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BALDWIN...BANKS...BARROW...BIBB...BLECKLEY...
BUTTS...CARROLL...CHATTAHOOCHEE...CHEROKEE...CLARKE...CLAYTON...
COBB...COWETA...CRAWFORD...CRISP...DEKALB...DODGE...DOOLY...
DOUGLAS...EMANUEL...FAYETTE...FORSYTH...GLASCOCK...GREENE...
GWINNETT...HALL...HANCOCK...HARRIS...HEARD...HENRY...HOUSTON...
JACKSON...JASPER...JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...JONES...LAMAR...
LAURENS...MACON...MADISON...MARION...MERIWETHER...MONROE...
MONTGOMERY...MORGAN...MUSCOGEE...NEWTON...NORTH FULTON...
OCONEE...OGLETHORPE...PAULDING...PEACH...PIKE...PULASKI...
PUTNAM...ROCKDALE...SCHLEY...SOUTH FULTON...SPALDING...STEWART...
SUMTER...TALBOT...TALIAFERRO...TAYLOR...TELFAIR...TOOMBS...
TREUTLEN...TROUP...TWIGGS...UPSON...WALTON...WARREN...
WASHINGTON...WEBSTER...WHEELER...WILCOX...WILKES...WILKINSON.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
333 AM EDT WED MAR 14 2012
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SHORTWAVE THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA LAST NIGHT CONTINUES TO
PRESS TOWARD THE COAST...AS RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.
OVERALL...SHORT-TERM MODEL MASS FIELDS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR BUT HAVE
SIDED WITH THE GFS AS IT AND THE ECMWF ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT...
NAM IS A LITTLE FASTER AND A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
MOISTURE.
BEST DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE SHUNTED SOUTH TODAY BY THE EXITING
SHORTWAVE BUT WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 80S JUST ABOUT
EVERYWHERE PLUS PLENTIFUL SURFACE MOISTURE...MLCAPE VALUES THIS
AFTERNOON CLIMB TO ABOVE 1000 J/KG ACROSS THE AREA. HRRR AND LOCAL
WRF DO DEVELOP CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON BUT MAINLY LIMIT IT TO
THE SOUTHWEST CORNER. FOR THESE REASONS...HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS BUT KEPT POPS CONFINED MAINLY SOUTH. VERY LITTLE SHEAR
TO WORK WITH /LESS THAN 30M2/S2 0-6KM SHEAR/ SO DO NOT EXPECT
CONVECTION TO REALLY ORGANIZE...BUT LAPSE RATES REMAIN PRETTY
STEEP /AROUND 7C/KM/. OVERALL DO NOT REALLY EXPECT ANY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER CENTRAL GEORGIA DID SEE LARGE HAIL LAST
NIGHT SO IT CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT.
AS MENTIONED...HIGH TEMPS TODAY EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE 80S
JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE...WITH MID 80S POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY. TODAY/S
HIGHS REMAIN JUST BELOW RECORD VALUES BUT THURSDAY/S FORECAST DOES
INCLUDE SOME RECORDS...SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...THUS POPS RETURN TO NORTH GEORGIA LATE IN THE SHORT-
TERM. OVERALL A VERY SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN WITH WARM TEMPS...A MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER...AND A HIGH CAPE LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.
TDP
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUMMER HAS STARTED EARLY. A HIGH-AMPLITUDE RIDGE TAKES FIRM HOLD
OF THE EASTERN U.S. WITH GFS PUSHING 587 DM 500 MB HEIGHTS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALL EXTENDED MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE
CONSISTENT IN THIS...SO CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH FOR HIGHER THAN
NORMAL TEMPS. THEREFORE...I BUMPED MAX TEMPS UPWARD A FEW DEGREES
IN THE EXTENDED TO COUNTERACT MOS TENDENCIES TOWARD CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN MUCH HIGHER THAN NORMAL
FOR THIS PERIOD...SO INCREASED AFTERNOON POPS TO REFLECT
SCATTERED...SUMMER-LIKE CONVECTION FOR THE WEEKEND. GFS SLIDES
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MOVES INTO NORTH GEORGIA BY MONDAY...SO POP
CHANCES DIMINISH. AM NOT QUITE CONVINCED THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO
ELIMINATE PRECIP CHANCES...ESPECIALLY WITH ONSHORE FLOW BEGINNING
AS SURFACE RIDGE CENTERS ON MID-ATLANTIC SEABOARD EARLY IN THE
WEEK. WILL GO WITH /LOW/ MOS POPS FOR NOW...BUT THEY MAY BE TOO
LOW.
27
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORDS FOR 03-14
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAHN 84 1918 33 1993 61 1933 16 1926
1918
KATL 82 1989 33 1993 64 1918 18 1993
1926
KCSG 84 1989 40 1993 65 1973 20 1993
1982
KMCN 85 1973 41 1993 67 1918 21 1926
1953
1918
RECORDS FOR 03-15
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAHN 84 1921 43 1960 62 1990 19 1993
1989
KATL 81 1973 39 1901 64 1989 20 1993
1946
KCSG 83 1989 44 1960 66 1973 21 1993
KMCN 86 1977 42 1960 65 1990 20 1993
1973
RECORDS FOR 03-16
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAHN 82 1945 37 1960 62 2002 19 1890
KATL 84 1945 34 1900 64 2002 18 1890
KCSG 85 2002 51 1969 65 2002 27 1988
1949
KMCN 87 1955 42 1900 65 1942 26 1916
RECORDS FOR 03-17
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAHN 85 1945 39 2005 62 1945 23 1924
KATL 86 1945 38 1892 65 2002 23 1895
KCSG 88 2002 45 2005 67 2002 30 1981
1954
KMCN 88 1945 44 2005 65 1908 27 1988
RECORDS FOR 03-18
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAHN 87 1921 45 1998 63 1908 23 1967
1941
1902
KATL 84 1982 30 1892 67 1908 20 1902
KCSG 89 1982 49 1988 64 1982 29 1967
KMCN 88 1908 43 1902 67 1908 28 2007
1941
RECORDS FOR 03-19
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAHN 86 1982 45 1947 61 1908 22 1892
KATL 85 1982 44 1892 65 1927 17 1892
KCSG 88 1982 52 2001 66 1948 30 1985
1960
KMCN 88 1963 49 1947 64 1982 26 1967
1945 1902
1927
RECORDS FOR 03-20
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAHN 86 1907 38 1906 62 1948 20 1923
KATL 86 1907 36 1906 67 1948 17 1923
KCSG 85 2004 46 2001 66 1982 31 1956
1996 1948 1949
KMCN 90 1907 45 1906 67 1907 23 1923
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
MAINLY SKC CONDITIONS AT TAF/AFD TIME WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD
CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL FOG TO FORM THIS MORNING...ALREADY
SEEING INTERMITTENT LIFR CONDITIONS AT MCN. FOR NOW...
ANTICIPATING MOST OTHER TAFS WILL BOTTOM OUT AT IFR BUT BRIEF LIFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. EXPECT MORE OF A FOG THAN LOW CIG SCENARIO
THOUGH LIFR OR VLIFR VV CONDITIONS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...
ESPECIALLY AT MCN. VSBY IMPROVES AFTER 12Z WITH VFR CU DEVELOPING
THIS AFTERNOON... DISSIPATING TOWARD EVENING. WESTERLY WINDS
LIGHT...BELOW 5KT EXCEPT FOR ATL...THROUGH THE PERIOD.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON WINDS.
MEDIUM ON VFR CIGS AND IFR VSBY THROUGH 13Z...LOW ON POTENTIAL
IFR/LIFR CIGS AND LIFR VSBY.
HIGH ON CIGS/VSBY AFTER 13Z.
TDP
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 82 54 85 58 / 10 10 10 20
ATLANTA 80 61 83 62 / 10 10 20 20
BLAIRSVILLE 75 51 76 54 / 10 10 20 30
CARTERSVILLE 80 51 81 54 / 10 10 20 20
COLUMBUS 83 58 85 61 / 20 10 10 10
GAINESVILLE 79 57 82 60 / 10 10 20 20
MACON 83 54 84 58 / 20 10 10 10
ROME 82 52 81 55 / 10 10 30 30
PEACHTREE CITY 81 50 82 54 / 20 10 10 10
VIDALIA 83 57 85 59 / 20 10 5 5
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
253 PM CDT WED MAR 14 2012
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 252 PM CDT WED MAR 14 2012
18Z SFC MAP SHOWED A LATE SPRING PATTERN IN PLACE AS SOUTHWEST WINDS
GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT IN WESTERN
IOWA...HELPED BOOST TEMPERATURES TO RECORD LEVELS THE UPPER
70S AND LOWER 80S. SEVERAL DAYS OF SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS
ALLOWED DEWPOINTS TO CLIMB TO UNSEASONABLY HIGH LEVELS IN THE
LOWER 60S. ALOFT...BROAD WEST-SOUTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW FEATURED
SEVERAL WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WHICH WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
POTENTIAL CONVECTION FOR THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS FIRST FORECAST CONCERN. WARM AND HUMID
BOUNDARY LAYER COMBINED WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION BELOW 800 MB HAVE LED TO AN UNCAPPED
ATMOSPHERE WITH SURFACE BASED CAPES OF 2500-3000 J/KG. INCREASING
DPVA AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE LIFTING NE OUT OF OKLAHOMA SHOULD
LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. WIND FIELDS ALOFT
ARE UNCHARACTERISTICALLY WEAK FOR EARLY SPRING...WITH 0-6 KM
EFFECTIVE SHEAR ONLY 25 KTS. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A
DISORGANIZED/PULSE TYPE THUNDERSTORM MODE AND EVEN WITH HIGH
INSTABILITY WOULD ONLY EXPECT SOME NEAR SVR WIND GUSTS AND HAIL
PRIMARILY IN A 3PM-7PM WINDOW...AND BEST CHANCES SOUTH OF I-70. THIS
THINKING IS SUPPORTED BY LATEST RUN HIGH-RES HRRR AND WRF-NMM
MODEL RUNS...WITH ANY CONVECTION PUSHING INTO INDIANA AFTER 7 OR 8
PM.
THE NEXT FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LOOKS TO BE
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TO OUR NORTHWEST. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
ELEVATED STORMS SHOULD FORM LATER THIS EVENING NEAR OR EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER AS 30-35 KT WSW ORIENTED LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS.
DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED WITH
THIS ACTIVITY AS IT DROPS SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT.
THE COLD FRONT WILL BECOME ALIGNED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW ON
THURSDAY AND TEND TO PUSH MORE EAST THAN SOUTH. CURRENT GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THE FRONT WILL NOT MAKE IT INTO OUR CWA SO ANOTHER DAY
WITH HIGHS NEAR 80. ASSUMING THE FRONT STAYS TO OUR NORTH AND
WASHES OUT...ANY CONVECTION WOULD BE DRIVEN BY SUBTLE SHORTWAVE
ENERGY. HAVE MAINTAINED LOW CHC POPS DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN
TIMING OR LOCATION OF DEVELOPMENT...BUT WITH HIGH INSTABILITY HAIL
AND GUSTY WINDS WOULD BE POSSIBLE.
LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL FEATURE AN AMPLIFIED
UPPER AIR PATTERN WITH A WESTERN TROUGH DEEPENING AS IT APPROACHES
THE ROCKIES EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHILE A STRONG RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS
THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. THIS WILL KEEP THE LOCAL AREA
BATHED IN SOUTHERLY FLOW AND TEMPERATURES MORE TYPICAL OF MID TO
LATE MAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S.
DEW POINTS WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNSEASONABLY HIGH IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S...GIVING A SOMEWHAT HUMID FEEL TO THE AIR. THE BEST
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE SATURDAY WHEN A
MORE ORGANIZED SHORTWAVE LIFTS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. HAVE TRIED TO FOCUS ANOTHER PERIOD OF HIGHER
POPS LATE IN THE EXTENDED WHEN THE UPPER TROUGH TRACKS EAST INTO
THE PLAINS. LATEST 12Z RUN GFS AND ECMWF HAVE SLOWED THIS SYSTEM
WITH AN UPPER LOW CUTTING OFF IN THE SOUTHERN OR CENTRAL PLAINS.
THIS WOULD KEEP THE AREA IN SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH MID WEEK WITH
EASTERN FRINGES OF A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN APPROACHING THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
25
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1255 PM CDT WED MAR 14 2012
EXPECT ISOLATED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP AFTER 20Z/3 PM OVER THE I-72
CORRIDOR REACHING SPI AND DEC FIRST AND GOING UNTIL MID EVENING
UNTIL 02Z-04Z AS CONVECTION CHANCES SHIFT FURTHER SE WITH LOW
LEVEL JET ENHANCEMENT AND A SUBTLE SHORT WAVE. HAVE VCTS AT
SPI...DEC AND CMI TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS ISOLATED CONVECTION AND LESS
OF A CHANCE AT PIA AND BMI SO KEPT THEM DRY. HIGH END MVFR BROKEN
CEILINGS AROUND 3K FT POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
ACROSS CENTRAL IL. EXTENSIVE CUMULUS CLOUD FIELD ALREADY OVER
AREAS WEST OF I-57 AT MIDDAY WITH GENERALLY LOW END VFR CEILINGS
FROM 3-4K FT. BREEZY SSW WINDS OF 12 TO 17 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 20-27
KTS THIS AFTERNOON TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING TO BETWEEN
10-15 KTS. A COLD FRONT FROM NW WI/IA INTO CENTRAL KS TO PRESS SE
TOWARD THE IL/IA BORDER BY THU MORNING BUT NOT MUCH CONVECTION
EXPECTED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH THU MORNING.
HUETTL
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED 252 PM CDT WED MAR 14 2012
RECORD HIGHS FOR...WEDNESDAY.............THURSDAY
BLOOMINGTON........76 IN 2007............76 IN 2007
CHAMPAIGN..........78 IN 2007............76 IN 1995
DECATUR............78 IN 2007............78 IN 1995
EFFINGHAM..........81 IN 2007............79 IN 2007
LINCOLN............77 IN 1933............78 IN 1935
PEORIA.............76 IN 1995............77 IN 1935
SPRINGFIELD........75 IN 1971/75/2007....79 IN 1935/1995
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
244 PM CDT WED MAR 14 2012
.DISCUSSION...
1136 AM CDT
GOING FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON...INCLUDING RECORD
WARMTH...LOOKS GOOD. TEMPERATURES ALREADY ARE REACHING THE MID 70S
AT 1130 AM IN SOME PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. MIXING ON BOTH ILX
AND DVN SOUNDINGS WOULD PROVIDE LOWER 80S...EVEN MID 80S ON THE
LATTER. INCREASING DEW POINTS AND SOME CIRRUS/CU WILL LIKELY KEEP
VALUES BETWEEN 79 AND 82 ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA.
A SOMEWHAT NOISY UPSTREAM MID-LEVEL FLOW EXISTS PER WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND PROFILERS. THERE APPEARS TO BE A COUPLE
LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE RIPPLES APPROACHING IL FROM IA AND MO.
INSTABILITY IS ALSO ON THE INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST...WITH THE
COMBINATION OF THIS AND THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVES GENERATING
AGITATED CU/ACCAS ACROSS EASTERN MO AND SOUTHWEST IL. THIS IS ON
THE LEADING EDGE OF MUCAPES AROUND 2000 J/KG AND ELEVATED MOISTURE
TRANSPORT. THIS LEADING GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE
NORTHEAST OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. EXPLICIT CONVECTIVE MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR AND WRF
INDICATE SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS DOWNSTATE IL
WORKING NORTHEAST INTO OR NEAR THE SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA. THIS
SEEMS PLAUSIBLE GIVEN THE FORECAST STRONG INSTABILITY AND THE
AGITATED FLOW ALOFT.
THE LOW-LEVEL JET IS ALSO FORECAST TO INTENSITY THIS
EVENING...DRIVEN IN PART TO THE APPROACHING NORTHERN STREAM COLD
FRONT. THIS COULD AS WELL INDUCE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
FURTHER WEST AND NORTH. THIS INCLUDES OVERNIGHT...AS THE
CONVERGENCE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE REGION. THE
DEEP LAYER SHEAR FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT IS FAIRLY
MARGINAL FOR WELL ORGANIZED STORMS...ON THE ORDER OF 20 TO 30 KTS.
SO THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY SEVERE STORMS WOULD SEEM A LITTLE BETTER
WHEN THE INSTABILITY IS ITS DEEPEST AND THE LOW-LEVEL JET NOSE IS
INTO OUR AREA...BASICALLY WITH THE EVENING CONVECTION ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA /IF IT CAN DEVELOP THIS FAR NORTH/...BUT
INSTABILITY IS MODEST ENOUGH THROUGH ALL OF TONIGHT ACROSS OUR
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THAT IT WILL BE SOMETHING TO CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.
MTF
//PREV DISCUSSION...
314 AM CDT
ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR LATE THU AND FRI THANKS TO
PNEUMONIA FRONT PUSHING DOWN LAKE MICHIGAN...THIS WILL BREAK THE
STRING OF 70 DEGREE DAYS FOR CHICAGO...OTHERWISE MILD WEATHER
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. OTHER CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY THU THROUGH SAT NIGHT.
SHORT WAVE TROF MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TOWARD HUDSON
BAY TODAY WITH BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE MIDWEST. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. SURFACE
LOW ASSOCIATED WITH CANADIAN SHORT WAVE WILL DRAG A TRAILING COLD
FRONT/TROF THROUGH THE PLAINS TODAY AND INTO UPPER GREAT LAKES BY
TONIGHT. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SET UP ACROSS
NORTHERN IL AND NORTHWEST IN TODAY. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
TRANSPORT UNSEASONABLY WARM MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION. NAM
SOUNDINGS AND 925 MB TEMPS STILL SUPPORT UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80
TODAY.
THE FRONT SAGS SOUTH DOWN THE LAKE TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING.
NAM/SREF APPEAR TO HAVE A MUCH BETTER HANDLE ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE
FRONT SAGS AND ALSO THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES FOR THU AND FRI.
WITH FRONT PUSHING DOWN THE LAKE THIS TIME OF YEAR...THE COLD HEAVY
AIR OVER THE LAKE HAS A TENDENCY TO PUSH FRONTS FURTHER SOUTH THAN
THE MODELS WOULD SUGGEST. SO WILL LEAN HEAVILY ON NAM/SREF FOR WINDS
AND TEMP TRENDS THU AND FRI. EXPECT TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA AGAIN THU BUT AREAS NEAR LAKE MI WILL SEE
TEMPERATURES PLUMMET THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE COLD LAKE AIR SPREADS
SOUTHWEST ACROSS NORTHERN IL AND NORTHWEST IN. THE AREA SHOULD
REMAIN IN EAST FLOW MUCH OF FRI MORNING BUT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
REBUILDS AND SURFACE WINDS GRADUALLY TURN SOUTHEAST THEN
SOUTH...AREAS AWAY FROM THE LAKE SHOULD WARM UP INTO THE 70S.
MOS GUIDANCE SUGGESTING DENSE FOG DEVELOPING TONIGHT THROUGH THU
NIGHT BUT WE THINK MOS IS EXPECTING THE GROUND TO BE MUCH
COLDER/WETTER THIS TIME OF YEAR...AND ISNT QUITE SURE HOW TO
HANDLE 60 DEGREE DEWPOINTS IN MID MARCH. WILL LIKELY SEE FOG
DEVELOP OVER THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON AS UNSEASONABLY HUMID AIR
SPREADS NORTH. COULD SEE THE FOG SPREAD INLAND THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS THE COOL AIR MASS PUSHES INLAND. DIFFICULT ENOUGH
TO FORECAST FOG A FEW HOURS IN ADVANCE LET ALONE TWO DAYS IN
ADVANCE...BUT THIS SEEMS LIKE A GOOD CASE FOR LAKE EFFECT FOG.
THE OTHER CONCERN IS THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. MODELS DEPICT A SOUTHERN
STREAM WAVE COMING UP FROM MEXICO MOVING INTO THE OH VALLEY THU.
THIS IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS AND MOST OF THE
ENERGY STAYS SOUTH TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY. THE OTHER AREA OF
POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE IN THE NORTHERN LAKES
TONIGHT AND SPREADING SOUTH THU ALONG THE FRONT. WILL GO WITH LOW
POPS HERE TONIGHT THROUGH THROUGH FRI.
GFS AND ECMWF BRING ANOTHER WAVE THROUGH THE REGION SAT-SUN MORNING
WHICH LOOKS LIKE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THEN
MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP A DEEP TROF OVER THE WESTERN US AND PUMP
UP THE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN US SUN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. EXPECT DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER THROUGH THIS
PERIOD.
ALLSOPP
&&
.CLIMATE...
316 PM CDT
DAILY RECORD HIGHS AND RECORD WARM LOWS ARE IN JEOPARDY NEARLY
EVERY ONE OF THE NEXT 8 DAYS...SO RATHER THAN LIST EACH RECORD
HERE IS THE LINK TO THE RECORDS:
CHICAGO: HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/LOT/?N=MARREC-ORD
(ALL LOWERCASE)
RFD: HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/LOT/?N=MARREC-RFD
(ALL LOWERCASE)
IF CHICAGO REACHES 80 DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY IT WILL BE THE THIRD
EARLIEST 80 DEGREE DAY EVER IN CHICAGO. THE EARLIEST FIRST 80
DEGREE DAY WAS BACK ON MARCH 3RD 1974 AND THE SECOND EARLIEST WAS
BACK ON MARCH 12 1990. IN ROCKFORD...THE EARLIEST FIRST 80 DEGREE
DAY ON RECORD IS MARCH 23RD 1939...SO IF ROCKFORD WERE TO REACH
80 ON WEDNESDAY IT WOULD BE THE EARLIEST ON RECORD BREAKING THE
PREVIOUS RECORD EARLIEST BY OVER A WEEK.
RECORD HIGHS WED MARCH 14. CURRENT FORECAST BREAKS BOTH OF THESE.
CHICAGO 77
ROCKFORD 74
NORMAL NUMBER OF 70 DEGREE DAYS IN MARCH FOR BOTH CHICAGO AND
ROCKFORD IS 1.2.
RECORD NUMBER OF DAYS WITH MAX TEMP 70 OR ABOVE IN MARCH
CHICAGO 9 IN 1945...6 IN 1910 AND 1907.
ROCKFORD 11 IN 1910...7 IN 1945.
RECORD FOR CONSECUTIVE 70 DEGREE DAYS IN MARCH
CHICAGO...5 FROM MARCH 12-16 1995.
ROCKFORD...9 MARCH 23-31 1910.
ALLSOPP/IZZI
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...
* SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS. GUSTY THROUGH SUNSET.
* ISOLATED SHOWERS/TS POSSIBLE INTO THIS EVENING.
* FOG/LOW CEILING POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
PAW
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING OVER NORTHERN IL AND NORTHWEST IN
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT ACROSS
THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TYPICAL PARAMETERS IN
PLACE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT LITTLE TO TRIGGER THE
CONVECTION. SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN ANYTHING OCCURRING AT THE
TERMINALS. THE BETTER CHANCE IS TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST.
MVFR CEILINGS PUSHING NORTHEAST THROUGH MO AND CENTRAL IL SHOULD
MAKE IT INTO THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. SOME BREAK UP OF THESE
CEILING THIS EVENING...BUT THEY WILL REDEVELOP AS THE FRONT GETS
CLOSE LATER TONIGHT. SOME LIGHT FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AS
WINDS DIMINISH.
PAW
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND.
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN SHOWERS/TS INTO THIS EVENING.
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN FOG/LOW CIGS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
PAW
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
* THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...PREVAILING VFR...CHANCE TSRA
PRODUCING LOCAL MVFR TO IFR.
* MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR. CMS
&&
.MARINE...
207 PM CDT
PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER LAKE MICHIGAN INTO THIS
EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF
THE LAKE OVERNIGHT...AND THEN ADVANCE DOWN THE LAKE THURSDAY AS
THE COLD WATER TEMPERATURES AND ASSOCIATED PRESSURE DIFFERENCES
HELP TO DRIVE THE BOUNDARY SOUTH. THIS FRONT AND ASSOCIATED WIND
SHIFT TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST SHOULD ARRIVE IN THE ILLINOIS
NEARSHORE AREAS BY EARLY AFTERNOON THURSDAY AND THE INDIANA SHORE
BY MID AFTERNOON. WITH THIS FRONT WILL NOT ONLY COME A WIND SHIFT
AND A BRIEF INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS...BUT ALSO THE LIKELIHOOD OF
FOG. SOME OF THIS FOG WILL POTENTIALLY BE DENSE...ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THERE IS
A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FRONT...WITH THE POSSIBILITY
OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. BEYOND THURSDAY...SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
RETURN FOR FRIDAY...BECOMING SOUTHERLY FOR THE WEEKEND AND THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS THE ANOMALOUSLY WARM PATTERN CONTINUES.
MTF
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
209 PM CDT WED MAR 14 2012
.DISCUSSION...
1136 AM CDT
GOING FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON...INCLUDING RECORD
WARMTH...LOOKS GOOD. TEMPERATURES ALREADY ARE REACHING THE MID 70S
AT 1130 AM IN SOME PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. MIXING ON BOTH ILX
AND DVN SOUNDINGS WOULD PROVIDE LOWER 80S...EVEN MID 80S ON THE
LATTER. INCREASING DEW POINTS AND SOME CIRRUS/CU WILL LIKELY KEEP
VALUES BETWEEN 79 AND 82 ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA.
A SOMEWHAT NOISY UPSTREAM MID-LEVEL FLOW EXISTS PER WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND PROFILERS. THERE APPEARS TO BE A COUPLE
LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE RIPPLES APPROACHING IL FROM IA AND MO.
INSTABILITY IS ALSO ON THE INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST...WITH THE
COMBINATION OF THIS AND THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVES GENERATING
AGITATED CU/ACCAS ACROSS EASTERN MO AND SOUTHWEST IL. THIS IS ON
THE LEADING EDGE OF MUCAPES AROUND 2000 J/KG AND ELEVATED MOISTURE
TRANSPORT. THIS LEADING GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE
NORTHEAST OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. EXPLICIT CONVECTIVE MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR AND WRF
INDICATE SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS DOWNSTATE IL
WORKING NORTHEAST INTO OR NEAR THE SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA. THIS
SEEMS PLAUSIBLE GIVEN THE FORECAST STRONG INSTABILITY AND THE
AGITATED FLOW ALOFT.
THE LOW-LEVEL JET IS ALSO FORECAST TO INTENSITY THIS
EVENING...DRIVEN IN PART TO THE APPROACHING NORTHERN STREAM COLD
FRONT. THIS COULD AS WELL INDUCE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
FURTHER WEST AND NORTH. THIS INCLUDES OVERNIGHT...AS THE
CONVERGENCE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE REGION. THE
DEEP LAYER SHEAR FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT IS FAIRLY
MARGINAL FOR WELL ORGANIZED STORMS...ON THE ORDER OF 20 TO 30 KTS.
SO THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY SEVERE STORMS WOULD SEEM A LITTLE BETTER
WHEN THE INSTABILITY IS ITS DEEPEST AND THE LOW-LEVEL JET NOSE IS
INTO OUR AREA...BASICALLY WITH THE EVENING CONVECTION ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA /IF IT CAN DEVELOP THIS FAR NORTH/...BUT
INSTABILITY IS MODEST ENOUGH THROUGH ALL OF TONIGHT ACROSS OUR
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THAT IT WILL BE SOMETHING TO CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.
MTF
//PREV DISCUSSION...
314 AM CDT
ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR LATE THU AND FRI THANKS TO
PNEUMONIA FRONT PUSHING DOWN LAKE MICHIGAN...THIS WILL BREAK THE
STRING OF 70 DEGREE DAYS FOR CHICAGO...OTHERWISE MILD WEATHER
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. OTHER CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY THU THROUGH SAT NIGHT.
SHORT WAVE TROF MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TOWARD HUDSON
BAY TODAY WITH BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE MIDWEST. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. SURFACE
LOW ASSOCIATED WITH CANADIAN SHORT WAVE WILL DRAG A TRAILING COLD
FRONT/TROF THROUGH THE PLAINS TODAY AND INTO UPPER GREAT LAKES BY
TONIGHT. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SET UP ACROSS
NORTHERN IL AND NORTHWEST IN TODAY. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
TRANSPORT UNSEASONABLY WARM MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION. NAM
SOUNDINGS AND 925 MB TEMPS STILL SUPPORT UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80
TODAY.
THE FRONT SAGS SOUTH DOWN THE LAKE TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING.
NAM/SREF APPEAR TO HAVE A MUCH BETTER HANDLE ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE
FRONT SAGS AND ALSO THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES FOR THU AND FRI.
WITH FRONT PUSHING DOWN THE LAKE THIS TIME OF YEAR...THE COLD HEAVY
AIR OVER THE LAKE HAS A TENDENCY TO PUSH FRONTS FURTHER SOUTH THAN
THE MODELS WOULD SUGGEST. SO WILL LEAN HEAVILY ON NAM/SREF FOR WINDS
AND TEMP TRENDS THU AND FRI. EXPECT TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA AGAIN THU BUT AREAS NEAR LAKE MI WILL SEE
TEMPERATURES PLUMMET THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE COLD LAKE AIR SPREADS
SOUTHWEST ACROSS NORTHERN IL AND NORTHWEST IN. THE AREA SHOULD
REMAIN IN EAST FLOW MUCH OF FRI MORNING BUT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
REBUILDS AND SURFACE WINDS GRADUALLY TURN SOUTHEAST THEN
SOUTH...AREAS AWAY FROM THE LAKE SHOULD WARM UP INTO THE 70S.
MOS GUIDANCE SUGGESTING DENSE FOG DEVELOPING TONIGHT THROUGH THU
NIGHT BUT WE THINK MOS IS EXPECTING THE GROUND TO BE MUCH
COLDER/WETTER THIS TIME OF YEAR...AND ISNT QUITE SURE HOW TO
HANDLE 60 DEGREE DEWPOINTS IN MID MARCH. WILL LIKELY SEE FOG
DEVELOP OVER THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON AS UNSEASONABLY HUMID AIR
SPREADS NORTH. COULD SEE THE FOG SPREAD INLAND THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS THE COOL AIR MASS PUSHES INLAND. DIFFICULT ENOUGH
TO FORECAST FOG A FEW HOURS IN ADVANCE LET ALONE TWO DAYS IN
ADVANCE...BUT THIS SEEMS LIKE A GOOD CASE FOR LAKE EFFECT FOG.
THE OTHER CONCERN IS THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. MODELS DEPICT A SOUTHERN
STREAM WAVE COMING UP FROM MEXICO MOVING INTO THE OH VALLEY THU.
THIS IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS AND MOST OF THE
ENERGY STAYS SOUTH TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY. THE OTHER AREA OF
POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE IN THE NORTHERN LAKES
TONIGHT AND SPREADING SOUTH THU ALONG THE FRONT. WILL GO WITH LOW
POPS HERE TONIGHT THROUGH THROUGH FRI.
GFS AND ECMWF BRING ANOTHER WAVE THROUGH THE REGION SAT-SUN MORNING
WHICH LOOKS LIKE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THEN
MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP A DEEP TROF OVER THE WESTERN US AND PUMP
UP THE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN US SUN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. EXPECT DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER THROUGH THIS
PERIOD.
ALLSOPP
&&
.CLIMATE...
316 PM CDT
DAILY RECORD HIGHS AND RECORD WARM LOWS ARE IN JEOPARDY NEARLY
EVERY ONE OF THE NEXT 8 DAYS...SO RATHER THAN LIST EACH RECORD
HERE IS THE LINK TO THE RECORDS:
CHICAGO: HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/LOT/?N=MARREC-ORD
(ALL LOWERCASE)
RFD: HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/LOT/?N=MARREC-RFD
(ALL LOWERCASE)
IF CHICAGO REACHES 80 DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY IT WILL BE THE THIRD
EARLIEST 80 DEGREE DAY EVER IN CHICAGO. THE EARLIEST FIRST 80
DEGREE DAY WAS BACK ON MARCH 3RD 1974 AND THE SECOND EARLIEST WAS
BACK ON MARCH 12 1990. IN ROCKFORD...THE EARLIEST FIRST 80 DEGREE
DAY ON RECORD IS MARCH 23RD 1939...SO IF ROCKFORD WERE TO REACH
80 ON WEDNESDAY IT WOULD BE THE EARLIEST ON RECORD BREAKING THE
PREVIOUS RECORD EARLIEST BY OVER A WEEK.
RECORD HIGHS WED MARCH 14. CURRENT FORECAST BREAKS BOTH OF THESE.
CHICAGO 77
ROCKFORD 74
NORMAL NUMBER OF 70 DEGREE DAYS IN MARCH FOR BOTH CHICAGO AND
ROCKFORD IS 1.2.
RECORD NUMBER OF DAYS WITH MAX TEMP 70 OR ABOVE IN MARCH
CHICAGO 9 IN 1945...6 IN 1910 AND 1907.
ROCKFORD 11 IN 1910...7 IN 1945.
RECORD FOR CONSECUTIVE 70 DEGREE DAYS IN MARCH
CHICAGO...5 FROM MARCH 12-16 1995.
ROCKFORD...9 MARCH 23-31 1910.
ALLSOPP/IZZI
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS. OCCASIONAL GUSTS CONTINUING THROUGH SUNSET.
* ISOLATED SHOWERS/TS POSSIBLE FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
* FOG/LOW CEILING POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
PAW
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING OVER NORTHERN IL AND NORTHWEST IN
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT ACROSS
THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TYPICAL PARAMETERS IN
PLACE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT LITTLE TO TRIGGER THE
CONVECTION. SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN ANYTHING OCCURRING AT THE
TERMINALS. THE BETTER CHANCE IS TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST.
MVFR CEILINGS PUSHING NORTHEAST THROUGH MO AND CENTRAL IL SHOULD
MAKE IT INTO THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. SOME BREAK UP OF THESE
CEILING THIS EVENING...BUT THEY WILL REDEVELOP AS THE FRONT GETS
CLOSE LATER TONIGHT. SOME LIGHT FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AS
WINDS DIMINISH.
PAW
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN WIND.
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN SHOWERS/TS LATE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN FOG/LOW CIGS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
PAW
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
* THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...PREVAILING VFR...CHANCE TSRA
PRODUCING LOCAL MVFR TO IFR.
* MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR. CMS
&&
.MARINE...
207 PM CDT
PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER LAKE MICHIGAN INTO THIS
EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF
THE LAKE OVERNIGHT...AND THEN ADVANCE DOWN THE LAKE THURSDAY AS
THE COLD WATER TEMPERATURES AND ASSOCIATED PRESSURE DIFFERENCES
HELP TO DRIVE THE BOUNDARY SOUTH. THIS FRONT AND ASSOCIATED WIND
SHIFT TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST SHOULD ARRIVE IN THE ILLINOIS
NEARSHORE AREAS BY EARLY AFTERNOON THURSDAY AND THE INDIANA SHORE
BY MID AFTERNOON. WITH THIS FRONT WILL NOT ONLY COME A WIND SHIFT
AND A BRIEF INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS...BUT ALSO THE LIKELIHOOD OF
FOG. SOME OF THIS FOG WILL POTENTIALLY BE DENSE...ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THERE IS
A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FRONT...WITH THE POSSIBILITY
OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. BEYOND THURSDAY...SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
RETURN FOR FRIDAY...BECOMING SOUTHERLY FOR THE WEEKEND AND THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS THE ANOMALOUSLY WARM PATTERN CONTINUES.
MTF
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1239 PM CDT WED MAR 14 2012
.DISCUSSION...
1136 AM CDT
GOING FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON...INCLUDING RECORD
WARMTH...LOOKS GOOD. TEMPERATURES ALREADY ARE REACHING THE MID 70S
AT 1130 AM IN SOME PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. MIXING ON BOTH ILX
AND DVN SOUNDINGS WOULD PROVIDE LOWER 80S...EVEN MID 80S ON THE
LATTER. INCREASING DEW POINTS AND SOME CIRRUS/CU WILL LIKELY KEEP
VALUES BETWEEN 79 AND 82 ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA.
A SOMEWHAT NOISY UPSTREAM MID-LEVEL FLOW EXISTS PER WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND PROFILERS. THERE APPEARS TO BE A COUPLE
LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE RIPPLES APPROACHING IL FROM IA AND MO.
INSTABILITY IS ALSO ON THE INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST...WITH THE
COMBINATION OF THIS AND THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVES GENERATING
AGITATED CU/ACCAS ACROSS EASTERN MO AND SOUTHWEST IL. THIS IS ON
THE LEADING EDGE OF MUCAPES AROUND 2000 J/KG AND ELEVATED MOISTURE
TRANSPORT. THIS LEADING GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE
NORTHEAST OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. EXPLICIT CONVECTIVE MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR AND WRF
INDICATE SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS DOWNSTATE IL
WORKING NORTHEAST INTO OR NEAR THE SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA. THIS
SEEMS PLAUSIBLE GIVEN THE FORECAST STRONG INSTABILITY AND THE
AGITATED FLOW ALOFT.
THE LOW-LEVEL JET IS ALSO FORECAST TO INTENSITY THIS
EVENING...DRIVEN IN PART TO THE APPROACHING NORTHERN STREAM COLD
FRONT. THIS COULD AS WELL INDUCE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
FURTHER WEST AND NORTH. THIS INCLUDES OVERNIGHT...AS THE
CONVERGENCE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE REGION. THE
DEEP LAYER SHEAR FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT IS FAIRLY
MARGINAL FOR WELL ORGANIZED STORMS...ON THE ORDER OF 20 TO 30 KTS.
SO THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY SEVERE STORMS WOULD SEEM A LITTLE BETTER
WHEN THE INSTABILITY IS ITS DEEPEST AND THE LOW-LEVEL JET NOSE IS
INTO OUR AREA...BASICALLY WITH THE EVENING CONVECTION ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA /IF IT CAN DEVELOP THIS FAR NORTH/...BUT
INSTABILITY IS MODEST ENOUGH THROUGH ALL OF TONIGHT ACROSS OUR
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THAT IT WILL BE SOMETHING TO CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.
MTF
//PREV DISCUSSION...
314 AM CDT
ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR LATE THU AND FRI THANKS TO
PNEUMONIA FRONT PUSHING DOWN LAKE MICHIGAN...THIS WILL BREAK THE
STRING OF 70 DEGREE DAYS FOR CHICAGO...OTHERWISE MILD WEATHER
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. OTHER CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY THU THROUGH SAT NIGHT.
SHORT WAVE TROF MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TOWARD HUDSON
BAY TODAY WITH BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE MIDWEST. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. SURFACE
LOW ASSOCIATED WITH CANADIAN SHORT WAVE WILL DRAG A TRAILING COLD
FRONT/TROF THROUGH THE PLAINS TODAY AND INTO UPPER GREAT LAKES BY
TONIGHT. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SET UP ACROSS
NORTHERN IL AND NORTHWEST IN TODAY. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
TRANSPORT UNSEASONABLY WARM MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION. NAM
SOUNDINGS AND 925 MB TEMPS STILL SUPPORT UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80
TODAY.
THE FRONT SAGS SOUTH DOWN THE LAKE TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING.
NAM/SREF APPEAR TO HAVE A MUCH BETTER HANDLE ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE
FRONT SAGS AND ALSO THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES FOR THU AND FRI.
WITH FRONT PUSHING DOWN THE LAKE THIS TIME OF YEAR...THE COLD HEAVY
AIR OVER THE LAKE HAS A TENDENCY TO PUSH FRONTS FURTHER SOUTH THAN
THE MODELS WOULD SUGGEST. SO WILL LEAN HEAVILY ON NAM/SREF FOR WINDS
AND TEMP TRENDS THU AND FRI. EXPECT TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA AGAIN THU BUT AREAS NEAR LAKE MI WILL SEE
TEMPERATURES PLUMMET THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE COLD LAKE AIR SPREADS
SOUTHWEST ACROSS NORTHERN IL AND NORTHWEST IN. THE AREA SHOULD
REMAIN IN EAST FLOW MUCH OF FRI MORNING BUT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
REBUILDS AND SURFACE WINDS GRADUALLY TURN SOUTHEAST THEN
SOUTH...AREAS AWAY FROM THE LAKE SHOULD WARM UP INTO THE 70S.
MOS GUIDANCE SUGGESTING DENSE FOG DEVELOPING TONIGHT THROUGH THU
NIGHT BUT WE THINK MOS IS EXPECTING THE GROUND TO BE MUCH
COLDER/WETTER THIS TIME OF YEAR...AND ISNT QUITE SURE HOW TO
HANDLE 60 DEGREE DEWPOINTS IN MID MARCH. WILL LIKELY SEE FOG
DEVELOP OVER THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON AS UNSEASONABLY HUMID AIR
SPREADS NORTH. COULD SEE THE FOG SPREAD INLAND THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS THE COOL AIR MASS PUSHES INLAND. DIFFICULT ENOUGH
TO FORECAST FOG A FEW HOURS IN ADVANCE LET ALONE TWO DAYS IN
ADVANCE...BUT THIS SEEMS LIKE A GOOD CASE FOR LAKE EFFECT FOG.
THE OTHER CONCERN IS THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. MODELS DEPICT A SOUTHERN
STREAM WAVE COMING UP FROM MEXICO MOVING INTO THE OH VALLEY THU.
THIS IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS AND MOST OF THE
ENERGY STAYS SOUTH TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY. THE OTHER AREA OF
POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE IN THE NORTHERN LAKES
TONIGHT AND SPREADING SOUTH THU ALONG THE FRONT. WILL GO WITH LOW
POPS HERE TONIGHT THROUGH THROUGH FRI.
GFS AND ECMWF BRING ANOTHER WAVE THROUGH THE REGION SAT-SUN MORNING
WHICH LOOKS LIKE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THEN
MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP A DEEP TROF OVER THE WESTERN US AND PUMP
UP THE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN US SUN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. EXPECT DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER THROUGH THIS
PERIOD.
ALLSOPP
&&
.CLIMATE...
316 PM CDT
DAILY RECORD HIGHS AND RECORD WARM LOWS ARE IN JEOPARDY NEARLY
EVERY ONE OF THE NEXT 8 DAYS...SO RATHER THAN LIST EACH RECORD
HERE IS THE LINK TO THE RECORDS:
CHICAGO: HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/LOT/?N=MARREC-ORD
(ALL LOWERCASE)
RFD: HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/LOT/?N=MARREC-RFD
(ALL LOWERCASE)
IF CHICAGO REACHES 80 DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY IT WILL BE THE THIRD
EARLIEST 80 DEGREE DAY EVER IN CHICAGO. THE EARLIEST FIRST 80
DEGREE DAY WAS BACK ON MARCH 3RD 1974 AND THE SECOND EARLIEST WAS
BACK ON MARCH 12 1990. IN ROCKFORD...THE EARLIEST FIRST 80 DEGREE
DAY ON RECORD IS MARCH 23RD 1939...SO IF ROCKFORD WERE TO REACH
80 ON WEDNESDAY IT WOULD BE THE EARLIEST ON RECORD BREAKING THE
PREVIOUS RECORD EARLIEST BY OVER A WEEK.
RECORD HIGHS WED MARCH 14. CURRENT FORECAST BREAKS BOTH OF THESE.
CHICAGO 77
ROCKFORD 74
NORMAL NUMBER OF 70 DEGREE DAYS IN MARCH FOR BOTH CHICAGO AND
ROCKFORD IS 1.2.
RECORD NUMBER OF DAYS WITH MAX TEMP 70 OR ABOVE IN MARCH
CHICAGO 9 IN 1945...6 IN 1910 AND 1907.
ROCKFORD 11 IN 1910...7 IN 1945.
RECORD FOR CONSECUTIVE 70 DEGREE DAYS IN MARCH
CHICAGO...5 FROM MARCH 12-16 1995.
ROCKFORD...9 MARCH 23-31 1910.
ALLSOPP/IZZI
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS. OCCASIONAL GUSTS CONTINUING THROUGH SUNSET.
* ISOLATED SHOWERS/TS POSSIBLE FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
* FOG/LOW CEILING POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
PAW
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING OVER NORTHERN IL AND NORTHWEST IN
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT ACROSS
THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TYPICAL PARAMETERS IN
PLACE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT LITTLE TO TRIGGER THE
CONVECTION. SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN ANYTHING OCCURRING AT THE
TERMINALS. THE BETTER CHANCE IS TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST.
MVFR CEILINGS PUSHING NORTHEAST THROUGH MO AND CENTRAL IL SHOULD
MAKE IT INTO THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. SOME BREAK UP OF THESE
CEILING THIS EVENING...BUT THEY WILL REDEVELOP AS THE FRONT GETS
CLOSE LATER TONIGHT. SOME LIGHT FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AS
WINDS DIMINISH.
PAW
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN WIND.
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN SHOWERS/TS LATE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN FOG/LOW CIGS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
PAW
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
* THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...PREVAILING VFR...CHANCE TSRA
PRODUCING LOCAL MVFR TO IFR.
* MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR. CMS
&&
.MARINE...
308 AM...LOW PRESSURE ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
ACROSS HUDSON BAY TONIGHT. THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS SOME AND EXPECT
WINDS TO INCREASE INTO THE 15-25 KT RANGE BUT EXPECT A COLD AND
STABLE MARINE LAYER TO LIMIT WAVE HEIGHTS.
A TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM THIS LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE THURSDAY...
REACHING FAR SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
WIND SPEEDS/GUSTS BEHIND THIS FRONT ARE A BIT PROBLEMATIC. MODELS
SUGGEST A WEAK LOW DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN IL...ALONG THE FRONT
WHILE STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. IF
THIS OCCURS...COULD BE A RATHER TIGHT GRADIENT ALONG THE FRONT AND
A PERIOD OF 15-25KTS IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. BOTH THE LOW AND THE
HIGH WEAKEN THURSDAY...SO WIND SPEEDS BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD
DIMINISH AS IT PUSHES SOUTH. GRADIENT THEN BECOMES MESSY BUT WEAK
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND EXPECT LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS TO
TURN LIGHT SOUTH OR SOUTHEASTERLY.
ONE OTHER CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG. AS WARMER AND MORE
MOIST AIR ADVECTS OVER THE COLDER WATERS...EXPECT TO SEE SOME FOG
DEVELOPMENT TODAY. HAVE HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT THE FOG WILL BECOME
DENSE BEHIND THE FRONT BUT NOT CONFIDENT TO HOIST ANY DENSE FOG
ADVISORIES YET...BUT THAT IS SOMETHING THAT WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED LATER TODAY AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT. CMS
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1139 AM CDT WED MAR 14 2012
.DISCUSSION...
1136 AM CDT
GOING FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON...INCLUDING RECORD
WARMTH...LOOKS GOOD. TEMPERATURES ALREADY ARE REACHING THE MID 70S
AT 1130 AM IN SOME PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. MIXING ON BOTH ILX
AND DVN SOUNDINGS WOULD PROVIDE LOWER 80S...EVEN MID 80S ON THE
LATTER. INCREASING DEW POINTS AND SOME CIRRUS/CU WILL LIKELY KEEP
VALUES BETWEEN 79 AND 82 ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA.
A SOMEWHAT NOISY UPSTREAM MID-LEVEL FLOW EXISTS PER WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND PROFILERS. THERE APPEARS TO BE A COUPLE
LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE RIPPLES APPROACHING IL FROM IA AND MO.
INSTABILITY IS ALSO ON THE INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST...WITH THE
COMBINATION OF THIS AND THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVES GENERATING
AGITATED CU/ACCAS ACROSS EASTERN MO AND SOUTHWEST IL. THIS IS ON
THE LEADING EDGE OF MUCAPES AROUND 2000 J/KG AND ELEVATED MOISTURE
TRANSPORT. THIS LEADING GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE
NORTHEAST OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. EXPLICIT CONVECTIVE MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR AND WRF
INDICATE SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS DOWNSTATE IL
WORKING NORTHEAST INTO OR NEAR THE SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA. THIS
SEEMS PLAUSIBLE GIVEN THE FORECAST STRONG INSTABILITY AND THE
AGITATED FLOW ALOFT.
THE LOW-LEVEL JET IS ALSO FORECAST TO INTENSITY THIS
EVENING...DRIVEN IN PART TO THE APPROACHING NORTHERN STREAM COLD
FRONT. THIS COULD AS WELL INDUCE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
FURTHER WEST AND NORTH. THIS INCLUDES OVERNIGHT...AS THE
CONVERGENCE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE REGION. THE
DEEP LAYER SHEAR FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT IS FAIRLY
MARGINAL FOR WELL ORGANIZED STORMS...ON THE ORDER OF 20 TO 30 KTS.
SO THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY SEVERE STORMS WOULD SEEM A LITTLE BETTER
WHEN THE INSTABILITY IS ITS DEEPEST AND THE LOW-LEVEL JET NOSE IS
INTO OUR AREA...BASICALLY WITH THE EVENING CONVECTION ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA /IF IT CAN DEVELOP THIS FAR NORTH/...BUT
INSTABILITY IS MODEST ENOUGH THROUGH ALL OF TONIGHT ACROSS OUR
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THAT IT WILL BE SOMETHING TO CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.
MTF
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
314 AM CDT
ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR LATE THU AND FRI THANKS TO
PNEUMONIA FRONT PUSHING DOWN LAKE MICHIGAN...THIS WILL BREAK THE
STRING OF 70 DEGREE DAYS FOR CHICAGO...OTHERWISE MILD WEATHER
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. OTHER CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY THU THROUGH SAT NIGHT.
SHORT WAVE TROF MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TOWARD HUDSON
BAY TODAY WITH BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE MIDWEST. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. SURFACE
LOW ASSOCIATED WITH CANADIAN SHORT WAVE WILL DRAG A TRAILING COLD
FRONT/TROF THROUGH THE PLAINS TODAY AND INTO UPPER GREAT LAKES BY
TONIGHT. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SET UP ACROSS
NORTHERN IL AND NORTHWEST IN TODAY. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
TRANSPORT UNSEASONABLY WARM MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION. NAM
SOUNDINGS AND 925 MB TEMPS STILL SUPPORT UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80
TODAY.
THE FRONT SAGS SOUTH DOWN THE LAKE TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING.
NAM/SREF APPEAR TO HAVE A MUCH BETTER HANDLE ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE
FRONT SAGS AND ALSO THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES FOR THU AND FRI.
WITH FRONT PUSHING DOWN THE LAKE THIS TIME OF YEAR...THE COLD HEAVY
AIR OVER THE LAKE HAS A TENDENCY TO PUSH FRONTS FURTHER SOUTH THAN
THE MODELS WOULD SUGGEST. SO WILL LEAN HEAVILY ON NAM/SREF FOR WINDS
AND TEMP TRENDS THU AND FRI. EXPECT TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA AGAIN THU BUT AREAS NEAR LAKE MI WILL SEE
TEMPERATURES PLUMMET THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE COLD LAKE AIR SPREADS
SOUTHWEST ACROSS NORTHERN IL AND NORTHWEST IN. THE AREA SHOULD
REMAIN IN EAST FLOW MUCH OF FRI MORNING BUT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
REBUILDS AND SURFACE WINDS GRADUALLY TURN SOUTHEAST THEN
SOUTH...AREAS AWAY FROM THE LAKE SHOULD WARM UP INTO THE 70S.
MOS GUIDANCE SUGGESTING DENSE FOG DEVELOPING TONIGHT THROUGH THU
NIGHT BUT WE THINK MOS IS EXPECTING THE GROUND TO BE MUCH
COLDER/WETTER THIS TIME OF YEAR...AND ISNT QUITE SURE HOW TO
HANDLE 60 DEGREE DEWPOINTS IN MID MARCH. WILL LIKELY SEE FOG
DEVELOP OVER THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON AS UNSEASONABLY HUMID AIR
SPREADS NORTH. COULD SEE THE FOG SPREAD INLAND THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS THE COOL AIR MASS PUSHES INLAND. DIFFICULT ENOUGH
TO FORECAST FOG A FEW HOURS IN ADVANCE LET ALONE TWO DAYS IN
ADVANCE...BUT THIS SEEMS LIKE A GOOD CASE FOR LAKE EFFECT FOG.
THE OTHER CONCERN IS THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. MODELS DEPICT A SOUTHERN
STREAM WAVE COMING UP FROM MEXICO MOVING INTO THE OH VALLEY THU.
THIS IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS AND MOST OF THE
ENERGY STAYS SOUTH TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY. THE OTHER AREA OF
POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE IN THE NORTHERN LAKES
TONIGHT AND SPREADING SOUTH THU ALONG THE FRONT. WILL GO WITH LOW
POPS HERE TONIGHT THROUGH THROUGH FRI.
GFS AND ECMWF BRING ANOTHER WAVE THROUGH THE REGION SAT-SUN MORNING
WHICH LOOKS LIKE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THEN
MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP A DEEP TROF OVER THE WESTERN US AND PUMP
UP THE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN US SUN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. EXPECT DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER THROUGH THIS
PERIOD.
ALLSOPP
&&
.CLIMATE...
316 PM CDT
DAILY RECORD HIGHS AND RECORD WARM LOWS ARE IN JEOPARDY NEARLY
EVERY ONE OF THE NEXT 8 DAYS...SO RATHER THAN LIST EACH RECORD
HERE IS THE LINK TO THE RECORDS:
CHICAGO: HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/LOT/?N=MARREC-ORD
(ALL LOWERCASE)
RFD: HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/LOT/?N=MARREC-RFD
(ALL LOWERCASE)
IF CHICAGO REACHES 80 DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY IT WILL BE THE THIRD
EARLIEST 80 DEGREE DAY EVER IN CHICAGO. THE EARLIEST FIRST 80
DEGREE DAY WAS BACK ON MARCH 3RD 1974 AND THE SECOND EARLIEST WAS
BACK ON MARCH 12 1990. IN ROCKFORD...THE EARLIEST FIRST 80 DEGREE
DAY ON RECORD IS MARCH 23RD 1939...SO IF ROCKFORD WERE TO REACH
80 ON WEDNESDAY IT WOULD BE THE EARLIEST ON RECORD BREAKING THE
PREVIOUS RECORD EARLIEST BY OVER A WEEK.
RECORD HIGHS WED MARCH 14. CURRENT FORECAST BREAKS BOTH OF THESE.
CHICAGO 77
ROCKFORD 74
NORMAL NUMBER OF 70 DEGREE DAYS IN MARCH FOR BOTH CHICAGO AND
ROCKFORD IS 1.2.
RECORD NUMBER OF DAYS WITH MAX TEMP 70 OR ABOVE IN MARCH
CHICAGO 9 IN 1945...6 IN 1910 AND 1907.
ROCKFORD 11 IN 1910...7 IN 1945.
RECORD FOR CONSECUTIVE 70 DEGREE DAYS IN MARCH
CHICAGO...5 FROM MARCH 12-16 1995.
ROCKFORD...9 MARCH 23-31 1910.
ALLSOPP/IZZI
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 14Z...
* SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS. GUSTS BECOMING MORE FREQUENT BY LATE
MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH SUNSET.
* ISOLATED SHOWERS/TS POSSIBLE FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
* FOG/LOW CEILING POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
PAW
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
PRECIP POTENTIAL FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT IS RATHER
UNCERTAIN AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW. ALL OF THE MODELS SHOW A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL IL THIS
AFTERNOON AND ACROSS NORTHWEST INDIANA THIS EVENING. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE DURING THE DAY AND WITH TEMPS
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID/UPPER
50S...THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY. QUESTION IS WHAT WILL
TRIGGER ANY CONVECTION/SHOWERS/TS. WHILE ISOLATED ACTIVITY IS
POSSIBLE...TOWARD 00Z...ONLY FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE A
VCSH AT GYY. TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED THROUGH THE DAY.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH THE
MORNING HRS AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. ONCE THE LOW LEVELS BEGIN
TO MIX LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT WIND
GUSTS TO INCREASE INTO THE MID 20KT RANGE...THEN DIMINISHING
QUICKLY WITH SUNSET.
LOW CIGS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/ARKLATEX
REGION THIS MORNING. THESE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHEAST AND
INITIALLY EXPECT A SCT/BKN VFR CU FIELD TO DEVELOP TODAY BUT WITH
TIME THESE CIGS MAY LOWER INTO MVFR THIS EVENING OR MORE LIKELY
TONIGHT. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG AS
EARLY AS THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY MORNING. AS
NOTED AT 06Z HOWEVER...SUSPECT THE MODELS MAY BE HAVING
DIFFICULTIES WITH THE NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH THE
HIGH DEWPOINTS...AND WHAT SHOULD BE A COLD AND POSSIBLY FROZEN
GROUND FOR MID MARCH. AS WINDS DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND TEMPS DIP
TOWARD THE DEWPOINTS...EXPECT SOME LIGHT/MVFR FOG...BUT STILL NOT
SURE HOW WIDESPREAD OR DENSE IT MAY BECOME AND THIS TOO WILL NEED
TO BE MONITORED LATER THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. CMS
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 14Z...
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN WIND.
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN SHOWERS/TS LATE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN FOG/LOW CIGS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
PAW
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
* THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...PREVAILING VFR...CHANCE TSRA
PRODUCING LOCAL MVFR TO IFR.
* MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR. CMS
&&
.MARINE...
308 AM...LOW PRESSURE ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
ACROSS HUDSON BAY TONIGHT. THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS SOME AND EXPECT
WINDS TO INCREASE INTO THE 15-25 KT RANGE BUT EXPECT A COLD AND
STABLE MARINE LAYER TO LIMIT WAVE HEIGHTS.
A TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM THIS LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE THURSDAY...
REACHING FAR SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
WIND SPEEDS/GUSTS BEHIND THIS FRONT ARE A BIT PROBLEMATIC. MODELS
SUGGEST A WEAK LOW DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN IL...ALONG THE FRONT
WHILE STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. IF
THIS OCCURS...COULD BE A RATHER TIGHT GRADIENT ALONG THE FRONT AND
A PERIOD OF 15-25KTS IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. BOTH THE LOW AND THE
HIGH WEAKEN THURSDAY...SO WIND SPEEDS BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD
DIMINISH AS IT PUSHES SOUTH. GRADIENT THEN BECOMES MESSY BUT WEAK
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND EXPECT LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS TO
TURN LIGHT SOUTH OR SOUTHEASTERLY.
ONE OTHER CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG. AS WARMER AND MORE
MOIST AIR ADVECTS OVER THE COLDER WATERS...EXPECT TO SEE SOME FOG
DEVELOPMENT TODAY. HAVE HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT THE FOG WILL BECOME
DENSE BEHIND THE FRONT BUT NOT CONFIDENT TO HOIST ANY DENSE FOG
ADVISORIES YET...BUT THAT IS SOMETHING THAT WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED LATER TODAY AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT. CMS
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
243 AM CDT WED MAR 14 2012
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 240 AM CDT WED MAR 14 2012
MAIN FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE WITH THE SUMMER-LIKE WEATHER EXPECTED
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AS WELL AS TIMING OF ANY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE GONE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S ALMOST EVERY DAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS A
COUPLE DEGREES COOLER ON SATURDAY. WILL LIKELY BE SEEING TEMPERATURE
RECORDS BEING BROKEN EACH DAY OVER SOME PART OF THE FORECAST AREA
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
THE UPPER PATTERN WILL FEATURE A RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE CENTER
OF THE NATION...BECOMING MORE AMPLIFIED ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST IS PROGGED TO
WASH OUT AS IT REACHES ILLINOIS. WHILE THE MODELS GENERALLY AGREE
ON THIS SCENARIO...THEY ARE ALL VARYING IN WHERE EXACTLY TO
GENERATE ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE ABNORMALLY WARM TEMPS...AND
A WIDE-OPEN MOISTURE FLOW OFF THE GULF FOR THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE...ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF INSTABILITY WITH CAPES RISING TO
OVER 2000 J/KG AND LITTLE CAP. ANY STORMS THAT FORM WILL HAVE THE
CAPABILITY TO APPROACH SEVERE LEVELS DURING PEAK HEATING. HOWEVER...
THERE IS NOT A LOT OF FOCUS ON ANY PARTICULAR BOUNDARY TO GET ANY
WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY GOING. HAVE TENDED TO GO WITH THE LOWEST POPS
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CWA...BUT 30 TO 40 PERCENT POPS ARE
DOMINATING THROUGH THIS PART OF THE FORECAST.
LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS TROUGHING
ALONG THE WEST COAST INTENSIFIES. THIS DEEP TROUGH WILL BE PUSHING
TOWARD THE ROCKIES EARLY NEXT WEEK. HAVE KEPT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS INTO SUNDAY...BUT DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. GOING INTO MIDWEEK...
THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW FAST THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN WITH THE
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH 500 MB HEIGHTS IN PLACE. THE ECMWF IS FASTER IN
THIS REGARD AS THE GFS HAS THE RIDGE MUCH STRONGER IN THE FIRST
PLACE. BUT...THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION CHANCE IS LIKELY
AS THIS TRANSITION OCCURS.
GEELHART
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1152 PM CDT TUE MAR 13 2012
SOME ADJUSTMENTS SEEM IN ORDER FOR THE 06Z TAFS IN REGARDS TO LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE PROSPECTS FOR MVFR CEILINGS LATER THIS
MORNING. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW MEAGER AMOUNTS OF LOW CLOUDS COMING
UP THROUGH EASTERN OK EVEN THOUGH THE LOW LEVEL JET HAS VEERED TO
SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASED TO 45-55 KT AS PREDICTED. THE LATEST RUC
AND HRRR OUTPUT ARE NOW DELAYING THE ONSET OF LOW STRATOCU UNTIL
MIDDAY AND SUGGEST THAT CEILINGS WILL BE 3K-5K FT. THE 00Z GFS AND
NAM MODELS ARE SHOWING SIMILAR SOLUTIONS. SO WILL KEEP SOME TEMPO
MVFR FOG AROUND SUNRISE...BUT DELAY THE ONSET OF BROKEN CEILINGS TIL
AROUND 18Z AND HAVE THEM IN THE VFR RANGE. ONCE THEY ARRIVE...THE
CLOUDS SHOULD HANG ON THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AS THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO BRING MOISTURE NORTHWARD.
THE AIRMASS IS FORECAST TO BECOME UNSTABLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
DEWPOINTS OF 55-60F AND CAPE VALUES OF 1K-2K J/KG. HOWEVER UPPER
SUPPORT FOR ASCENT WILL BE MINIMAL WITH BROAD RIDGING ALOFT...AND A
LOW LEVEL FOCUS WILL BE ABSENT. THE ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS WILL NOT
HELP MATTERS EITHER. THUS AN ISOLATED STORM MAY BE POSSIBLE ALMOST
ANYWHERE...BUT EXPECTED AERIAL COVERAGE AND LOW CONFIDENCE IN WHERE
STORMS MAY DEVELOP PRECLUDES A THUNDER MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS
TIME.
04
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED 240 AM CDT WED MAR 14 2012
RECORD HIGHS FOR...WEDNESDAY.............THURSDAY
BLOOMINGTON........76 IN 2007............76 IN 2007
CHAMPAIGN..........78 IN 2007............76 IN 1995
DECATUR............78 IN 2007............78 IN 1995
EFFINGHAM..........81 IN 2007............79 IN 2007
LINCOLN............77 IN 1933............78 IN 1935
PEORIA.............76 IN 1995............77 IN 1935
SPRINGFIELD........75 IN 1971/75/2007....79 IN 1935/1995
GEELHART
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1152 PM CDT TUE MAR 13 2012
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 830 PM CDT TUE MAR 13 2012
QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY A FEW CIRRUS DRIFTING BY.
FOG FORMATION WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TOWARD DAWN...BUT NOT AS DENSE
AS THIS MORNING SINCE PROJECTED LOWS ARE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE THE
DEWPOINT. THIS WILL BE MAINLY AN AVIATION CONCERN. CURRENT
TEMPERATURES ARE HOLDING PRETTY CLOSE TO THE FORECAST CURVE...SO NO
CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
04
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1152 PM CDT TUE MAR 13 2012
SOME ADJUSTMENTS SEEM IN ORDER FOR THE 06Z TAFS IN REGARDS TO LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE PROSPECTS FOR MVFR CEILINGS LATER THIS
MORNING. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW MEAGER AMOUNTS OF LOW CLOUDS COMING
UP THROUGH EASTERN OK EVEN THOUGH THE LOW LEVEL JET HAS VEERED TO
SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASED TO 45-55 KT AS PREDICTED. THE LATEST RUC
AND HRRR OUTPUT ARE NOW DELAYING THE ONSET OF LOW STRATOCU UNTIL
MIDDAY AND SUGGEST THAT CEILINGS WILL BE 3K-5K FT. THE 00Z GFS AND
NAM MODELS ARE SHOWING SIMILAR SOLUTIONS. SO WILL KEEP SOME TEMPO
MVFR FOG AROUND SUNRISE...BUT DELAY THE ONSET OF BROKEN CEILINGS TIL
AROUND 18Z AND HAVE THEM IN THE VFR RANGE. ONCE THEY ARRIVE...THE
CLOUDS SHOULD HANG ON THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AS THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO BRING MOISTURE NORTHWARD.
THE AIRMASS IS FORECAST TO BECOME UNSTABLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
DEWPOINTS OF 55-60F AND CAPE VALUES OF 1K-2K J/KG. HOWEVER UPPER
SUPPORT FOR ASCENT WILL BE MINIMAL WITH BROAD RIDGING ALOFT...AND A
LOW LEVEL FOCUS WILL BE ABSENT. THE ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS WILL NOT
HELP MATTERS EITHER. THUS AN ISOLATED STORM MAY BE POSSIBLE ALMOST
ANYWHERE...BUT EXPECTED AERIAL COVERAGE AND LOW CONFIDENCE IN WHERE
STORMS MAY DEVELOP PRECLUDES A THUNDER MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS
TIME.
04
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 211 PM CDT TUE MAR 13 2012
BIGGEST DIFFERENCES IN MODELS FOCUS ON STRENGTH OF RIDGE EARLY NEXT
WEEK. EITHER WAY...TEMPS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THE FORSEEABLE FUTURE.
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ENHANCE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE REMNANTS OF A DISSIPATING
COLD FRONT BROUGHT PATCHY DENSE FOG TO THE REGION LAST NIGHT. DRIER
AIR HAS ADVECTED IN TODAY AND WOULD NOT EXPECT QUITE THE COVERAGE OR
LOW VISIBILITIES ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THIS
MORNING. SOME PATCHY FOG REMAINS POSSIBLE.
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN TRANSITIONING TO A MORE
MERIDIONAL FLOW PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEK. PRIOR TO THE RIDGE
BUILDING TO THE POINT OF CUTTING OFF ENERGY FROM IMPACTING IL...IT
APPEARS THAT A SERIES OF WEAK WAVES MAY EFFECT THE AREA PERIODICALLY
INTO SATURDAY. WITH DAYTIME TEMPS IN THE 70S...THE INSTABILITY WILL
BE WELL OVER 1000J/KG AT TIMES. HOWEVER...SHEAR IS VERY LIMITED AND
DEEP MOISTURE IS LACKING. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP WITH
SOME LOCALLY STRONG CELLS...BUT WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS UNLIKELY.
WILL GO WITH CHC POPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
WITH HEIGHTS BUILDING FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
ATMOSPHERE SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRY. HAVE GONE LOWER ON SKY COVER AND
REMOVED POPS FOR THE PERIOD. GFS IS STRONGEST OF THE 12Z SUITE WITH
STRENGTH OF RIDGE...5850M+ AT 500MB BY 00Z WED...AND RESULTANT
WARMING. GENERALLY FAVOR ITS SOLUTION GIVEN THE WARM TREND OF LATE.
THE ECMWF DOES HAVE SOME PRECIP MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS THE RIDGE IS WEAKER BY ALMOST 100M IN THAT SOLUTION AND
ALLOWS MORE ENERGY TO IMPACT IL...BUT IT IS HARD TO SEE WHERE THE
DEEP MOISTURE CAN ADVECT IN FROM AND WILL GO DRY.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN KEEPING 850MB TEMPS 10C OR HIGHER
THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD. WARMER GFS EVEN APPROACHES 15C BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK. WILL KEEP TEMPS 15-25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS
CONSISTENTLY IN THE 70S AND POSSIBLY A FEW 80S.
BARKER
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
254 PM EDT WED MAR 14 2012
.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON CONVECTIVE CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL
AS CONTINUATION OF UNSEASONABLE WARM TEMPERATURES.
AS EXPECTED...TEMPERATURES HAVE SOARED WELL INTO THE 70S THIS
AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING LL FLOW AND STRONG MIXING. ELEVATED MIXED
LAYER IS KEEPING CLOUDS AT BAY FOR THE TIME BEING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION. AS WE PROGRESS INTO THIS EVENING...THIS WILL CHANGE AS NOSE
OF LL THETA E SURGE AND INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT MOVES ACROSS
INDIANA INTO OHIO. LOCAL WRF MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE
FORCING CONVECTION TO INITIATE BY LATE AFTERNOON TO OUR WEST AND
SWINGING IT THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH MIDNIGHT. NAM KEEP ACTIVITY
SUPPRESSED FURTHER SOUTH. MIDDLE ROAD MODELS (HRRR/4KM SPC WRF) ALSO
FOCUS BULK OF CONVECTION ACROSS CNTRL/SOUTHERN INDIANA WITH
ISOL/WIDELY SCT CONVECTION INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHERN INDIANA. VIS
SAT SHOWS EXPANDING CU FIELD ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS WHERE SFC
DEWPTS WERE NOW IN THE LOWER 60S. AT 18Z...ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE
NOTED SOUTHWEST OF ST LOUIS...WITH A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES SHOWING
UP IN THE BOOTHILL OF MISSOURI...WHICH 14-15ZZ HRRR AND 12Z 4KM SPC
WRF PLACED PERFECTLY...WITH NAM SHOWING NO DEVELOPMENT. THE
LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE NOTED ON NOSE OF MID 60 DEWPTS. AM INCLINED
TO LEAN TOWARDS THESE MODELS AND THEIR TRENDS...WHICH BLEND NICELY
WITH INHERITED GRIDS. SPC HAS CONFINED SLGT RISK FURTHER SOUTH INTO
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND SW INDIANA. WILL NEED TO MONITOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT INTO THIS EVENING WITH RISK OF STRONG STORMS IN PLACE.
WITH THE INCREASE IN LL MSTR...GRIDS NEEDED TO BE PATCHED UP TO
INCREASE OVERNIGHT LOWS CLOSER TO 60...AS WELL AS SUBSEQUENT
INCREASING IN DEWPTS. FOG POTENTIAL STILL LOOMS LATER TONIGHT AS
WEAK BOUNDARY SLIDES SOUTH TOWARDS THE AREA. HOWEVER...WITH
POTENTIAL OF EVENING CONVECTION AND CHANCES IT COULD MESS UP LL
PROFILES...WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES IN REGARDS TO PREV INSERTION OF
FOG.
BOUNDARY WILL STALL OUT ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
EVENING PUSHING SOUTHWARD. THIS WILL CAUSE NUMEROUS ISSUES WITH THE
FORECAST WITH POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER...POSSIBLY FOG
AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. BROADBRUSHED APPROACH BEST
OPTION AT THIS POINT WITH DECREASE IN POPS IN NW AREAS BY THURS NGT
AS DRIER AIR TRIES TO FILTER IN. CAN`T REALLY ADD MUCH DETAIL TO
GRIDS AT THIS POINT WITH SEVERAL SCENARIOS POSSIBLE. UNSEASONABLY
WARM TEMPS WILL STILL BE IN STORE WITH HIGHS INTO THE 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM...
FEW CHANGES TO LONG TERM GRIDS WITH CRALLBLEND INIT IN BALLPARK.
UNSEASONABLY WARM PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH DEEP
TROUGH DEVELOPING IN THE WEST AND STAUNCH RIDGE FOR LATE MARCH
DEVELOPING OVER THE MIDWEST. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE DIFFERENCES IN
THE DETAILS AS EXPECTED WITH NUMEROUS SHORT WAVES AND ABUNDANT
MOISTURE. PWATS STILL EXPECTED ABOVE AN INCH THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND POOLING INTO 60S AT TIMES. THIS
WILL SET STAGE FOR PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEPENDENT ON
TIMING OF EACH WAVE. SHEAR PROFILES REMAIN WEAK WHILE MUCAPES ABOVE
2000 J/KG AT TIMES SO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS REMAIN A POSSIBILITY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 20 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH END
OF PERIOD...POSSIBLY HIGHER NEXT WEEK DEPENDING ON DEGREE OF CLOUD
COVER. HIGHS IN THE 80S REMAIN A POSSIBILITY IF FULL MIXING CAN BE
ACHIEVED NEXT WEEK. WITH SUCH A DEEP SYSTEM TO THE WEST FEEL MODELS
ARE TOO FAST WITH APPROACH OF TROUGH FOR MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND
THUS WED WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM. RAISED ALLBLEND INIT TEMPS
SEVERAL DEGREES IN LINE WITH DAY 5 AND 6 TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION.../18Z TAFS/
HIGH CLOUDS SLOWLY STREAMING TOWARDS THE REGION WILL CAUSE LITTLE
IMPACT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MAIN FOCUS IS DEEPER MSTR AND LIFT
NOTED ACROSS WESTERN ILLINOIS. HI RES MODELS INDICATE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED AS ELEVATED INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO
INCREASE. AGITATED CU FIELD NOTED ON NOSE OF THE INCREASING LIFT
AND A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED SE OF ST LOUIS. PREV TAFS HAVE
HANDLE ON CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THIS EVENING WITH ISOL TO SCT
COVERAGE BEING HANDLED BY VCTS MENTION. HI RES MODELS CONTINUE TO
BRING IN A GOOD DEAL OF FOG LATER TONIGHT AND LINGER INTO MUCH OF
THE DAY THURSDAY AS WEAK BOUNDARY DRIFTING SOUTH INTO THE REGION
LIKELY STALLS OUT. GIVEN POSSIBLE IMPACTS OF CONVECTION THIS
EVENING ON FOG POTENTIAL...HAVE LEFT LATTER PART OF TAFS ALONE.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...LASHLEY
AVIATION...FISHER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
639 PM CDT THU MAR 15 2012
...UPDATED FOR THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
COLD FRONT RUNNING NEARLY EAST-WEST ACROSS THE STATE NEAR INTERSTATE
80 WILL LIFT NORTH TONIGHT. DECENT MOISTURE POOL OVER SOUTHERN IA
AND AREAS SOUTH WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOW 60S..NORTHERN IA REMAINS
IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHEAST WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK SHORT
WAVE THIS EVENING...BUT LOOKING AT SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS THERE IS
ENOUGH OF A WEAK CAP IN PLACE TO KEEP DEVELOPMENT TO A MINIMUM IN
SPITE OF 2000+ CAPE. WILL PUT IN PATCHY FOG OVER THE NORTH HALF OF
THE STATE...GENERALLY NORTH OF THE LIFTING WARM FRONT. MOISTURE
WILL SURGE IN TO THESE AREAS AND WINDS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN LIGHT
NORTH OF THE FRONT. SOUTH OF IT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MIXING TO
KEEP FOG FROM FORMING. THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOME STRATUS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. IN EITHER CASE...DO NOT EXPECT
TO SEE TEMPS FALL AS THEY DID THIS MORNING.
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN PERSISTENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES STAYING WELL ABOVE NORMAL. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE MORE PROMINENT DURING THIS TIME WITH DECENT
INSTABILITY ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA. A WEAK SHORTWAVE APPROACHING LATE
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT MAY BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE SOME CONVECTION
DURING THE EVENING INTO THE NIGHT...MAINLY IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
AREAS. SHEAR WILL BE QUITE WEAK...THEREFORE ORGANIZATION SHOULD
REMAIN LIMITED WITH ANY CONVECTION DURING THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN NEAR RECORD LEVELS FOR DAYTIME HIGHS AND MAX MINIMUMS.
STRONGER SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL ARRIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A LARGE
WESTERN TROF MOVES TOWARD THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY. SOUNDINGS
BECOME QUITE SATURATED IN THE DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH PWATS OF 1.25
TO 1.50 WHICH IS NEAR THE MARCH MAXIMUM VALUES. THIS MAY LIMIT THE
OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH SUCH DEEP MOISTURE KEEPING CAPE VALUES
LOWER...DESPITE AN INCREASE IN SHEAR AS WIND FIELDS STRENGTHEN WITH
THE APPROACH OF THE SYSTEM. THE SATURATED SOUNDINGS LEND MORE
TOWARD HEAVIER RAINS AS THE SYSTEM PASSES SLOWLY ACROSS THE STATE.
THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AND
REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER SYSTEM DROPS INTO
THE LOWER PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY CUTS OFF IN TEXAS. THE MAIN POLAR
JET WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH...THEREFORE COLD AIR IS NOT
EXPECTED TO ENTRAIN INTO THE SYSTEM WITH READINGS REMAINING WELL
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH DAY 7.
&&
.AVIATION...16/00Z
BAND OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING OVER IA CURRENTLY IN ADDITION TO
DISSIPATING CUMULUS FIELD OVER THE SOUTH. OVERALL...SIMILAR AVIATION
CONCERNS AS PAST FEW NIGHTS WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A VAST AMOUNT OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT. HAVE INCLUDED SOME HINTS AT STRATUS AND
FOG...MAINLY OVER THE NORTH. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL SUGGESTING SOME
SCT POTENTIAL OVER THE SOUTH. POSSIBLE BKN MVFR STRATUS IN THE
MORNING TRANSITIONING TO A MVFR/VFR CUMULUS FIELD IN THE AFTERNOON
WITH BREEZY SOUTH WINDS DEVELOPING.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MS MAR 12
LONG TERM...COGIL
AVIATION...DONAVON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
559 PM CDT WED MAR 14 2012
...UPDATED FOR AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TOMORROW)
ISSUED AT 109 PM CDT WED MAR 14 2012
A 500MB ANALYSIS INDICATED A THERMAL TROUGH WAS LOCATED ACROSS
THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES AT 12Z WEDNESDAY. THIS APPEARS TO
BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 50-60KT 250MB JET
WHICH BOTH THE NAM AND GFS MOVE ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA/EXTREME
SOUTHERN KANSAS LATER TONIGHT, MAINLY BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z
THURSDAY. THEY ALSO INDICATED DECENT MID LEVEL INSTABILITY PRESENT
AHEAD OF THIS WAVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS AS WELL AS SOME WEAK 850MB WARM AIR ADVECTION. MID
LEVEL MOISTURE HOWEVER APPEARING SOMEWHAT LACKING BUT AM UNABLE TO
COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED ELEVATED STORM DURING THE PREDAWN
HOURS. AS A RESULT WILL INCLUDE LOW CHANCES FOR THIS OCCURRENCE
EAST OF 283.
AS FOR THUNDERSTORM CHANCES NEAR THE DRYLINE/WARM FRONT ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY THIS EVENING...LOW LEVEL FORCING ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY CURRENTLY APPEARS WEAK BUT STILL BOTH THE NAM AND
GFS INDICATING +2000 J/KG CAPES CAN BE EXPECTED AROUND 00Z
THURSDAY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. WILL THEREFORE KEEP ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS GOING BUT FOCUS THESE SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES
FURTHER EAST. GIVEN THIS INSTABILITY ANY STORM THAT DOES DEVELOP
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SOME HAIL BUT GIVEN WEAK 0-6KM SHEAR
AND A FREEZING LEVEL AT OR ABOVE 12000 FEET HAIL SIZE WOULD
AVERAGE LESS THAN A QUARTER.
DRYLINE/WARM FRONT WILL THEN RETREAT WESTWARD ACROSS SOUTHWEST
KANSAS OVERNIGHT. AS THIS DRYLINE APPROACHES THE COLORADO BORDER
AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE MID-UPPER 50 DEW POINTS, WHICH WERE LOCATED
ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA EARLIER TODAY, WILL START TO SPREAD BACK
INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS. NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATING THAT THIS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RETURN AFTER 06Z WITH THE DEPTH OF THIS
MOISTURE INCREASING TO NEAR 1600 METERS AGL BY 12Z THURSDAY. GFS
HOWEVER WAS NOT AS DEEP WITH THIS MOISTURE RETURN AT 12Z THURSDAY
BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS SO TAKING INTO ACCOUNT ALONG WITH LIGHT
WINDS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WILL EXPAND THE CLOUD COVER A LITTLE
FURTHER NORTHWEST AND RAISE THE LOWS TONIGHT A FEW MORE DEGREES
WHERE THE CLOUD COVER AND HIGHER DEW POINTS ARE NOW EXPECTED.
ON THURSDAY IT WILL TAKE A BIT MORE TIME FOR THE EAST TO HEAT UP
AS THE LOW CLOUDS SLOWLY ERODE. STILL WITH THIS IN MIND THE MODEL
SOUNDINGS ALL INDICATING MIXING HEIGHTS UP TO AT LEAST THE 850MB
LEVEL BY 00Z FRIDAY. BASED ON THIS ALONG WITH THE 00Z FRIDAY 850MB
TEMPERATURE RANGING FROM 16-18C WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR HIGHS ON
THURSDAY RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT WED MAR 14 2012
THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE MARKED BY A COUPLE OF DISTINCTLY DIFFERENT
AIRMASSES DURING THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF THE PERIOD. THE MODELS TEND
TO REINFORCE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS WHILE THE
HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE WEST WILL ACT TO CREATE A DIURNALLY ADVANCING
AND RETREATING DRYLINE WHICH MAY OR MAY NOT BECOME A PRIMARY FOCUS
FOR ISOLATED DEEP MOIST CONVECTION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE FIRST
OPPORTUNITY FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION APPEARS TO BE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. IF THE GFS MODEL FIELDS WERE TO VERIFY,
BETTER LARGE SCALE ASCENT MIGHT BE PRESENT AS THE LEFT FRONT
QUADRANT OF A SOUTHERN STREAM SUBTROPICAL JET WOULD BE PRESENT
PRODUCING A WEAK THERMALLY INDIRECT AGEOSTROPHIC CIRCULATION.
CONSIDERING THIS, AS WELL AS THE NAM SHOWING PRECIPITATION FARTHER
WEST, WE HAVE DECIDED TO TREND POPS A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE SREF
POPS. IN THE CASE OF THE GFS, THE CONVECTION COULD BE SCATTERED OR
EVEN MORE NUMEROUS.
THE LARGE WESTERN TROUGH STILL IS SHOWN BY THE GEM/ECMWF/GFS THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEKEND WITHOUT LARGE DISCREPANCIES IN THE SYNOPTIC
EVOLUTION. WARM SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AHEAD OF THE LARGE SCALE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE DRYLINE AND WARM MOIST SECTOR AHEAD OF IT
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS STILL SEEMS TO REMAIN THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED CONVECTION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND. JUST HOW
DEEP A SURFACE LOW MIGHT DEVELOP AND HOW FAR EAST THE DRYLINE
ADVANCES WILL DETERMINE ANY LOW CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL
REMAIN DIURNAL IN NATURE. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY AS THE MODELS
INDICATE A SUBTLE WAVE LIFTING THROUGH EASTERN KANSAS FROM WESTERN
OKLAHOMA EARLY IN THE DAY. CHANCES INCREASE AS FORCING FOR ASCENT
INCREASED BY SUNDAY. BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY, INCREASING CHANCES FOR A
WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE EVENT ARE ADVERTISED BY THE MODELS. FOLLOWING
THE OPEN WAVE OF THE ECMWF AND GEM, THE STRONG INSTABILITY AXIS
MIGHT BE SHIFTED TOO FAR WEST TO AFFECT OUR FORECAST AREA. IN STARK
CONTRAST, THE GFS ALLOWS A CUTOFF LOW TO DEVELOP, WHICH IS A MUCH
WETTER SOLUTION. THE 00 UTC ECMWF HAD BACKED OFF ON A SIMILAR
SOLUTION IS WAS DEVELOPING ON YESTERDAYS RUNS BUT HAS SINCE FLIP
FLOPPED WITH ANOTHER CUT OFF LOW. LOW CONFIDENCE EXISTS WITH RESPECT
TO THE EXTENDED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 547 PM CDT WED MAR 14 2012
SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATING SHALLOW MOISTURE TO CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTH FROM TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA OVERNIGHT. THE NEW HRRR AND RUC HAVE
IFR CONDITIONS MOVING INTO DODGE CITY AND GARDEN CITY BETWEEN
06-09Z AND AT HAYS BY AROUND 12Z AND LASTING TILL 15Z. AT THIS
TIME SINCE THE EXPECTED FOG IS SO SHALLOW WILL SHOW MVFR
CONDITIONS FOR NOW. NEXT UPDATE MAY HAVE TO INCLUDE VFR CONDITIONS
IF OBSERVATIONS AND HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS WARRANT. COULD ALSO HAVE
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THIS EVENING MAINLY SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST
OF KDDC AND KGCK. ALSO THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF A FEW ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO PUT INTO
THE TAF AT THIS TIME.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT WED MAR 14 2012
FIRE WEATHER WILL BE A CONCERN IN FAR WESTERN KANSAS BEHIND THE
DRY LINE EACH AFTERNOON FROM FRIDAY TROUGH SUNDAY. DEEP MIXING
SHOULD RESULT IN FREQUENT WIND GUSTS OVER 25 MPH EACH DAY, ALONG WITH
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES LESS THAN 15%.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 53 80 50 83 / 10 10 0 20
GCK 45 79 46 82 / 0 0 0 10
EHA 41 78 46 82 / 0 0 0 10
LBL 43 81 47 83 / 10 0 0 20
HYS 52 79 50 82 / 10 0 0 10
P28 59 81 55 81 / 20 10 10 30
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM....RUSSELL
AVIATION...KRUSE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
1103 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2012
.Update...
Issued at 1104 PM EDT Mar 15 2012
Center of the MCV is sliding into eastern Kentucky, taking the more
widespread rain showers with it. However, new showers and storms
have developed in the wake of the MCV where mid level lapse rates
are rapidly steepening. A line of storms has developed across
southern Indiana to just south of Louisville that has been prolific
at producing lightning. Will need to continue to monitor storms for
small hail as low to mid levels cool rapidly and overall freezing
and wet bulb zero heights lower.
Scattered storms will gradually slide east across southern Indiana
and north central Kentucky through the next few hours, then focus
will shift to another convective complex just west of the
Mississippi/Ohio River confluence as it slowly slides east southeast
toward the area. Models show showers and thunderstorms gradually
weakening as they move toward the western CWA overnight, however
still expect scattered to numerous showers and storms to survive,
moving into areas west of I-65 between 3 and 7 am. The earlier side
of the window will be achieved if storms hold together. As we move
through the dawn and mid to late morning hours, coverage of showers
and thunderstorms looks to increase as mid level disturbance moves
into the region. Best chance for precipitation appears to be across
south central Kentucky.
Temperatures have already fallen to around the 60 degree mark and do
not expect them to move a whole lot through the overnight as dew
points remain in the upper 50s and heavy sky cover will linger.
Updated products already out.
Update issued at 915 PM EDT Mar 15 2012
Cancelled the remainder of the watch box across the eastern CWA as
severe threat has ceased. Still watching showers and a few
thunderstorms move across southern Indiana and central Kentucky.
Latest RUC analysis shows MCV center over central Kentucky. This
feature will continue to slide east, taking most of the rain and
convection with it. Will be looking at updating grids over the next
hour or two as things have settled down in the wake of
afternoon/evening storms.
Update issued at 730 PM EDT Mar 15 2012
Have canceled more counties out of the severe thunderstorm watch.
Cells really weakening, but will leave watch over our
eastern/northeastern CWA in case anything randomly develops as MCV
moves through. Update out shortly.
Update issued at 650 PM EDT Mar 15 2012
Have canceled the Severe Thunderstorm Watch west of the leading edge
of the area of convection in central KY. Some cells will continue in
central KY early this evening, along with lightning in the anvil of
this mesoscale convective system (MCS). However, storms are not
expected to be severe anymore in areas where the Watch was canceled
early due to a stabilizing low-level air mass. Have kept the Watch
in effect for east-central and eastern sections of south-central KY.
Will clear these areas when the threat passes. No other changes to
the near term forecast at this time.
Update issued at 615 PM EDT Mar 15 2012
Large area of convection is currently moving thru central KY at this
time. There have been numerous reports of 1 inch diameter hail with
the storms earlier this afternoon with a few golf ball size reports
from the strongest individual cells. Currently, storms have
congealed into a more mesoscale area over central KY. KLVX Doppler
radar shows a pronounced mesoscale convective vortex (MCV) on the
northern end of this area of showers and storms, which has helped
fuel a more organized convective cold pool and some strong wind
gusts (up to 60 mph) over central KY.
Over the next 1-2 hours, the line in central KY will continue
eastward with a decreasing trend in intensity. The more cellular
storms ahead of the line will move east of our area with also a slow
decrease in hail size potential. Later this evening, most of the
rain will move east of our area, but can`t preclude isolated or
scattered nocturnal showers or a few storms overnight again.
As for the Severe Thunderstorm Watch, will evaluate this shortly,
but looks like anything behind the line may be able to be canceled
early. The area of convection in Missouri at this time should not
affect us in the near term given its current movement and as the
atmosphere in our area will have stabilized somewhat given the
current convection in our area.
.Short Term (Tonight through Friday Night)...
Updated at 315 PM EDT Mar 15 2012
...Severe thunderstorm watch for pulse storms/hail...
In the wake of a convective complex that crossed southern Indiana
earlier this morning, cumulus cloud development has been suppressed
until recently. However, the atmosphere has become quite unstable
and scattered to numerous thunderstorms have developed over
southwest IN and central KY and will spread over the entire area by
late afternoon. Given the strong instability across the region and
weak shear, severe pulse storms are expected and will continue and
thus, SPC has given our entire area a severe thunderstorm watch.
Expect this to continue through the late afternoon and early evening
hours. Storms will lose their strength with sunset but scattered
convection will continue through the overnight hours most likely.
For tonight through Friday night, the Lower Ohio Valley will remain
within a very mild and moist early summer-like pattern. Several
disturbances that are hard to nail down the timing will move across
the region. Scattered thunderstorms are quite possible at any time
from tonight through Friday night. For Friday, feel that the best
chance of convection will lie south of the Ohio River.
Expect overnight lows tonight not far from 60, and highs Friday in
the upper 70s.
.Long Term (Saturday - Thursday)...
Updated at 300 PM EDT Mar 15 2012
Persistent and anomalous pattern will continue for much of the
week. Deep SW flow will keep things unsettled for the first part of
the weekend, so will continue to carry a chance POP for Saturday
afternoon. The upper ridge over the Deep South will amplify Sunday
and into the early part of next week, gradually shutting off our
rain chances. Slight chance Sunday and then a dry forecast Mon-Wed.
A bit more uncertainty creeps in around Day 7, as the models show a
deep trof over the Rockies closing off into a deep upper low over
the Southern Plains by Wednesday. ECMWF brings this feature far
enough east for precip to return on Thursday, while the GFS is about
a day slower. The forecast reflects a compromise and will include a
chance POP for Thursday, but reality will be all or nothing
depending on which solution verifies.
Temps will run 20-25 degrees above climo both day and night through
the period.
&&
.Aviation (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Updated at 700 PM EDT Mar 15 2012
Complex of showers and thunderstorms will continue to affect the
terminals through 02z at the latest as an upper level disturbance
passes overhead. Most of the heavy thunderstorms are already east of
SDF and BWG, but will keep a VCTS mention in there for a couple more
hours. For LEX, they may still have a heavy storm through 00z, with
convection tapering off thereafter. Any storm affecting LEX within
the next hour or two could reduce VSBYs to IFR and CIGs down to MVFR
briefly. For BWG and SDF, think conditions will likely remain MVFR
from VSBYs from the SHRA/VCTS.
Behind the convection, more showers and storms can be found well
upstream in Missouri. However, with an unstable environment lasting
through the overnight hours, think scattered SHRA/TSRA may be
possible at any time. Will try and time this possibility toward
sunrise as another upper level disturbance exits KS/OK to the east.
Will just keep the VCTS mention for all terminals for this. In
addition, may be some lowered VSBYs from BR/light FG towards 12z, as
well.
Expect that thunderstorms will redevelop and be possible at any time
Friday after 12z, as well. Southwest winds will generally dominate
from around 10kt this afternoon, then to around 5kt from the south
tonight. Friday afternoon, expect southwest winds around 10kt.
Again, after any potential morning BR/FG, conditions should remain
VFR outside of any thunderstorms.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
$$
Updates...........TWF/AL/BJS
Short Term.......JSD/AL
Long Term........RAS
Aviation.........AL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
909 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2012
.Update...
Issued at 915 PM EDT Mar 15 2012
Cancelled the remainder of the watch box across the eastern CWA as
severe threat has ceased. Still watching showers and a few
thunderstorms move across southern Indiana and central Kentucky.
Latest RUC analysis shows MCV center over central Kentucky. This
feature will continue to slide east, taking most of the rain and
convection with it. Will be looking at updating grids over the next
hour or two as things have settled down in the wake of
afternoon/evening storms.
Update issued at 730 PM EDT Mar 15 2012
Have canceled more counties out of the severe thunderstorm watch.
Cells really weakening, but will leave watch over our
eastern/northeastern CWA in case anything randomly develops as MCV
moves through. Update out shortly.
Update issued at 650 PM EDT Mar 15 2012
Have canceled the Severe Thunderstorm Watch west of the leading edge
of the area of convection in central KY. Some cells will continue in
central KY early this evening, along with lightning in the anvil of
this mesoscale convective system (MCS). However, storms are not
expected to be severe anymore in areas where the Watch was canceled
early due to a stabilizing low-level air mass. Have kept the Watch
in effect for east-central and eastern sections of south-central KY.
Will clear these areas when the threat passes. No other changes to
the near term forecast at this time.
Update issued at 615 PM EDT Mar 15 2012
Large area of convection is currently moving thru central KY at this
time. There have been numerous reports of 1 inch diameter hail with
the storms earlier this afternoon with a few golf ball size reports
from the strongest individual cells. Currently, storms have
congealed into a more mesoscale area over central KY. KLVX Doppler
radar shows a pronounced mesoscale convective vortex (MCV) on the
northern end of this area of showers and storms, which has helped
fuel a more organized convective cold pool and some strong wind
gusts (up to 60 mph) over central KY.
Over the next 1-2 hours, the line in central KY will continue
eastward with a decreasing trend in intensity. The more cellular
storms ahead of the line will move east of our area with also a slow
decrease in hail size potential. Later this evening, most of the
rain will move east of our area, but can`t preclude isolated or
scattered nocturnal showers or a few storms overnight again.
As for the Severe Thunderstorm Watch, will evaluate this shortly,
but looks like anything behind the line may be able to be canceled
early. The area of convection in Missouri at this time should not
affect us in the near term given its current movement and as the
atmosphere in our area will have stabilized somewhat given the
current convection in our area.
.Short Term (Tonight through Friday Night)...
Updated at 315 PM EDT Mar 15 2012
...Severe thunderstorm watch for pulse storms/hail...
In the wake of a convective complex that crossed southern Indiana
earlier this morning, cumulus cloud development has been suppressed
until recently. However, the atmosphere has become quite unstable
and scattered to numerous thunderstorms have developed over
southwest IN and central KY and will spread over the entire area by
late afternoon. Given the strong instability across the region and
weak shear, severe pulse storms are expected and will continue and
thus, SPC has given our entire area a severe thunderstorm watch.
Expect this to continue through the late afternoon and early evening
hours. Storms will lose their strength with sunset but scattered
convection will continue through the overnight hours most likely.
For tonight through Friday night, the Lower Ohio Valley will remain
within a very mild and moist early summer-like pattern. Several
disturbances that are hard to nail down the timing will move across
the region. Scattered thunderstorms are quite possible at any time
from tonight through Friday night. For Friday, feel that the best
chance of convection will lie south of the Ohio River.
Expect overnight lows tonight not far from 60, and highs Friday in
the upper 70s.
.Long Term (Saturday - Thursday)...
Updated at 300 PM EDT Mar 15 2012
Persistent and anomalous pattern will continue for much of the
week. Deep SW flow will keep things unsettled for the first part of
the weekend, so will continue to carry a chance POP for Saturday
afternoon. The upper ridge over the Deep South will amplify Sunday
and into the early part of next week, gradually shutting off our
rain chances. Slight chance Sunday and then a dry forecast Mon-Wed.
A bit more uncertainty creeps in around Day 7, as the models show a
deep trof over the Rockies closing off into a deep upper low over
the Southern Plains by Wednesday. ECMWF brings this feature far
enough east for precip to return on Thursday, while the GFS is about
a day slower. The forecast reflects a compromise and will include a
chance POP for Thursday, but reality will be all or nothing
depending on which solution verifies.
Temps will run 20-25 degrees above climo both day and night through
the period.
&&
.Aviation (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Updated at 700 PM EDT Mar 15 2012
Complex of showers and thunderstorms will continue to affect the
terminals through 02z at the latest as an upper level disturbance
passes overhead. Most of the heavy thunderstorms are already east of
SDF and BWG, but will keep a VCTS mention in there for a couple more
hours. For LEX, they may still have a heavy storm through 00z, with
convection tapering off thereafter. Any storm affecting LEX within
the next hour or two could reduce VSBYs to IFR and CIGs down to MVFR
briefly. For BWG and SDF, think conditions will likely remain MVFR
from VSBYs from the SHRA/VCTS.
Behind the convection, more showers and storms can be found well
upstream in Missouri. However, with an unstable environment lasting
through the overnight hours, think scattered SHRA/TSRA may be
possible at any time. Will try and time this possibility toward
sunrise as another upper level disturbance exits KS/OK to the east.
Will just keep the VCTS mention for all terminals for this. In
addition, may be some lowered VSBYs from BR/light FG towards 12z, as
well.
Expect that thunderstorms will redevelop and be possible at any time
Friday after 12z, as well. Southwest winds will generally dominate
from around 10kt this afternoon, then to around 5kt from the south
tonight. Friday afternoon, expect southwest winds around 10kt.
Again, after any potential morning BR/FG, conditions should remain
VFR outside of any thunderstorms.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
$$
Updates...........TWF/AL/BJS
Short Term.......JSD/AL
Long Term........RAS
Aviation.........AL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
520 PM EDT WED MAR 14 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SLOWLY EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD BRIEFLY INTO THE AREA LATER THURSDAY. A WEAK
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY AND
CROSS THE STATE LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REBUILD INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND WITH AN UNSEASONABLY WARM
WEATHER PATTERN SHAPING UP FOR NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPDATE: SENT A QUICK UPDATE TO INCREASE TOTAL SNFL AMOUNTS TO 4
TO 8 IN ACROSS PORTIONS OF NERN AND FAR NRN AROOSTOOK COUNTY BASED
ON A FEW OBS OF 5 IN ATTM. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING HOW
BANDING WILL EVOLVE OVR THE NEXT FEW HRS...WITH NEAR TERM MODELS
SUCH AS THE HRRR SHOWING THE ENHANCED BANDING CURRENTLY JUST W OF
THE ME-NB BORDER POSSIBLY GRAZING FAR NE AROOSTOOK COUNTY. WILL
MONITOR CLOSELY DURG THIS TM.
ORGNL DISC: UPPER LOW TRACKING TOWARDS THE WESTERN BORDER OF
MAINE AS EXPECTED. SOME INSTABILITY ABOVE H850 AND A SHARP UPPER
TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE CLOSED UPPER LOW IS PRODUCING LOCALLY
HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS IN FAR NORTHEASTERN ZONES. WILL GO FOR UP TO
5 INCHES IN NE CORNER OF STATE...BUT EXPECT WIDE VARIATIONS FOR
NORTHERN ZONES DUE TO HIT OR MISS NATURE OF THE HEAVIER SNOW
SHOWERS. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO WRAP BACK NORTHWESTWARDS FROM THE
MARITIMES AND WILL HELP PROLONG SNOW IN NORTHERN ZONES WELL INTO
THE NIGHT. DOWN EAST AREAS WILL GET A BRIEF SHOT OF SNOW THIS
EVENING THAT MAY LAY DOWN AN INCH OR SO. THIS WILL BE IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE UPPER LOW PASSAGE. THE THREAT FOR FZDZ IS
STILL THERE WITH THE RISK FROM NEAR MILO TOWARDS NORTHERN
WASHINGTON COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON AND QUICKLY SHIFTING TO SOUTHERN
WASHINGTON COUNTY THIS EVENING BEFORE THE WARM AIR ALOFT IS GONE.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DIP SLIGHTLY IN THE LOWER 20S NORTH AND
UPPER 20S DOWN EAST.
WITH SNOW ENDING IN THE FAR EASTERN ZONES EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BUT CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH
A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE FROM THE WEST. EXPECT
SOME CLEARING TOWARDS BANGOR BY AFTERNOON...BUT NOT UNTIL LATE DAY
TOWARDS THE EASTERN BORDER OF THE STATE. HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOW
TO MID 30S TOWARDS THE SJV AND INCREASE TOWARDS DOWN EAST WHERE
LOW 40S ARE LIKELY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVE
EAST OF THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH UPPER
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AND CROSSING THE STATE BY
FRIDAY EVENING. EXPECT ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT TO
SPREAD MAINLY RAIN FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE STATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. RAIN MAY MIX WITH SNOW ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN
SECTIONS. THEN AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE STATE, CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY NIGHT. QPF AMOUNTS AT THIS
TIME APPEARS TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE WITH AMOUNTS GENERALLY BELOW A
QUARTER OF AN INCH. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON
SATURDAY WITH CLEAR SKIES AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES INTO THE 40S
AND 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGING BUILDING ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SOME
VERY MILD WEATHER GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE ALONG
THE EAST COAST WILL BRING A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT
FOLLOWED BY A PARTLY SUNNY AND MILD DAY ON SUNDAY. THE LATEST GFS
SHOWS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING IN LATE SUNDAY WHICH MAY BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS LATE IN THE DAY. THE ECMWF BRINGS A WEAK FRONT
THROUGH LATER MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN CONSOLIDATES AGAIN ALONG THE
EAST COAST TUESDAY AS A VERY STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE EAST. THIS WILL BRING A PARTLY SUNNY AND VERY MILD DAY ON
TUESDAY. THE STRONGEST INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGING WILL LIKELY COME
WEDNESDAY WHEN WARM WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS BOOST TEMPS INTO THE 60S
AND PERHAPS EVEN 70S ACROSS THE REGION. THE VERY WARM TEMPS DURING
THE MID WEEK NEXT WEEK WILL LIKELY RESULT IN LOTS OF SNOW MELT. THE
RELEASE OF SNOW MELT MAY RESULT IN RISES ON RIVERS AND POTENTIAL ICE
JAMS DURING THE MID AND LATE WEEK NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR TONIGHT FOR ALL TERMINALS...BCMG MVFR THURSDAY
MORNING AND VFR BY LATE AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM: VFR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY THEN CONDITIONS
WILL LOWER TO MVFR/IFR IN RAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING AND THEN IMPROVE TO VFR LATER FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SCA WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...BARELY
MEETING CRITERIA WITH WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS AND 5 FT SEAS.
SHORT TERM: WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA CRITERIA THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR
MEZ001>006-010-011-015>017-031-032.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...FOSTER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...VJN
MARINE...VJN/FOSTER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
1032 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL IMPACT THE AREA WITH THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTS A SIGNIFICANT FRONTAL BNDRY ACRS THE
EASTERN SHORE...IT APPEARS TO HAVE STOPPED ITS MOVEMENT SW (AS A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT)...AND IS NOW BEGINNING TO SLOWLY RETREAT BACK
TO THE NE. EARLIER SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE NOW JUST ABOUT COMPLETELY
GONE W/ THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE MD ERN SHORE
ALONG THE BOUNDARY. HAVE DROPPED POPS MOST AREAS AND KEPT LOW CHC
POPS GOING ON THE EASTERN SHORE AND IN FAR SE VA THOUGH MIDNIGHT.
ONLY OTHER PRECIP ISSUE WILL BE FROM MULTIPLE MCS CLUSTERS W OF
THE MTNS. MODELS ARE NOT DOING A VERY GOOD JOB CURRENTLY SO
CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW IN THEIR ABILITY TO FCST THE PRECIP
CHANCES OVERNIGHT. OVERALL THE RUC SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE
ON CURRENT CONDITIONS AND WILL FOLLOW ITS SOLUTION TO SOME EXTENT.
BASED ON RADAR TRENDS...IF MCS`S DO HOLD TOGETHER...PRECIP WOULD
LIKELY NOT MAKE IT TO AKQ CWA UNTIL AFTER 08Z-09Z. HAVE A 20% POP
ALL ZONES AFTER 08Z TO HANDLE THIS. DESPITE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MSTR...LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH WIND/MIXING TO INHIBIT FOG DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT (ALTHOUGH SHALLOW/PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESP IN
PLACES THAT RECEIVED RAIN).
TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY CONTINUE TO SHOW A LOT OF VARIABILITY...GENLY
IN THE 60S TO LWR 70S IN VA/NE NC...WITH UPPER 40S AT OXB AND IN
THE 50S OVER THE REST OF THE ERN SHORE. LOWS LOOK TO RANGE FROM
THE UPR 40S COASTAL MD...TO UPR 50S/AROUND 60 OVER SE VA/NE NC
(TEMPS ON THE ERN SHORE WILL BE STEADY OR MAY RISE SLIGHTLY AS THE
BOUNDARY LIFTS BACK N).
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY: A SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVES AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL
RESULT IN MORE PCPN FRIDAY. THE ENTIRE AREA WILL HAVE AT LEAST 40
PERCENT POPS FRIDAY. THE BEST INSTABILITY AND GREATEST MOISTURE
WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN PORTION AND INCLUDED LIKELY POPS GENERALLY
SOUTH OF I-64 BUT CUTTING BUT DID NOT INCLUDE THE IMMEDIATE COAST
OR ALBEMARLE SOUND AREA WHERE COOL WATER LIMIT THE INSTABILITY. A
CLOUD COVER AND PCPN WILL HOLD DOWN TEMPERATURES SOME WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 80S EXCEPT IN THE 70S ON THE LOWER EASTERN
SHORE.
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY: DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO FILTER INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AND PCPN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH OVER NORTHERN
PORTIONS. SLIGHT CHC TO CHC WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA WITH TSTMS ALSO POSSIBLE OVER INLAND AREAS.
EASTERLY WINDS WILL HOLD DOWN TEMPERATURES OVER EASTERN PORTIONS ON
SATURDAY. LOW FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 50S. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE 60S OVER THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST RANGING TO THE UPPER 70S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT COUNTIES.
SUNDAY: UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH A WEAK
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTION FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS BOTH SUNDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RUN IN THE 70S EXCEPT 60S ALONG THE
COAST AND LOWER EASTERN SHORE. LOWS WILL BE A BIT COOLER WITH
READINGS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ANCHORED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK. SOME MOISTURE ROTATING
CLOCKWISE AROUND THE HIGH COULD OCCASIONALLY STREAM INTO THE
REGION BUT SHOULD ONLY RESULT IN SOME CLOUDINESS RATHER THAN
PRECIPITATION. OVERALL...A DRYING AND WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED
FOR INLAND AREAS WHILE COASTAL LOCATIONS SHOULD RUN ABOUT 5 TO 10
DEGREES COOLER DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION FRI MORNING AND
MAY BRING ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PSBL
TSTMS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL VA. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN VFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD EXCEPT IN VCNTY OF PRECIP...AND SBY
WHERE NE FLOW COULD PUSH SOME LOW CLOUDS OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
SOME PTCHY DENSE FOG PSBL BY EARLY MORNING BUT THIS WILL LIKELY
DEPEND ON AREAS WHERE PRECIP HAS FALLEN AND SOME CLEARING OCCURS.
UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER WILL CONT FOR FRI WITH ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS THRU THE DAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THRU THE REGION FROM THE NORTH LATE
FRI/EARLY SAT WITH A CHC FOR SHOWERS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
EXCEPT WITH PRECIP.
&&
.MARINE...
A LOW PRESSURE WEAKNESS/SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE ACROSS
NORTHERN WATERS TONIGHT...EVENTUALLY PUSHING OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL PRODUCE SOUTH WINDS OF 15-20 KT OVERNIGHT OVER
CHES BAY AND COASTAL WATERS...AND 10-15 KT OVER CURRITUCK SOUND.
HAVE ISSUED SCA HEADLINES FOR CHES BAY TONIGHT PRIMARILY FOR GUSTS
REACHING 18-20 KT. WINDS ACROSS CHES BAY AND COASTAL WATERS ARE THEN
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW 15 KT JUST AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL BE A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND
AVERAGE 10-15 KT WITH STRONGER GUSTS POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
SEAS SHOULD PRIMARILY BE 2-3 FT...ALTHOUGH NORTHERN AREAS OUT NEAR
20NM COULD EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF 4 FT SEAS WITH THE SOUTHERLY SURGE
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST...THEN EAST...AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY SETTLES SOUTH OF THE
REGION SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES DOWN ALONG
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THIS HIGH DRIFTS SOUTHWARD AND BECOMES
ANCHORED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY THROUGH LATE NEXT
WEEK...CREATING RELATIVELY BENIGN CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
&&
.CLIMATE...
SEVERAL RECORD HIGHS HAVE BEEN SET TODAY...RIC HIT 86/ ORF HIT
87...SBY HIT 80 AND ECG HIT 86. SEE RER`S FOR DETAILS.
(PREVIOUS) RECORD HIGH TEMPS THURS (3/15) AND FRI (3/16)
3/15 3/16
RIC 82/2007 85/1945
ORF 84/1973 84/1945
SBY 80/1990 83/1945
ECG 86/1973 87/1945
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LSA
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LSA
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...DAP/JEF
MARINE...BMD
CLIMATE...LKB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
1025 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL IMPACT THE AREA WITH THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTS A SIGNIFICANT FRONTAL BNDRY ACRS THE
EASTERN SHORE...IT APPEARS TO HAVE STOPPED ITS MOVEMENT SW (AS A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT)...AND IS NOW BEGINNING TO SLOWLY RETREAT BACK
TO THE NE. EARLIER SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE NOW JUST ABOUT COMPLETELY
GONE W/ THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE MD ERN SHORE
ALONG THE BOUNDARY. HAVE DROPPED POPS MOST AREAS AND KEPT LOW CHC
POPS GOING ON THE EASTERN SHORE AND IN FAR SE VA THOUGH MIDNIGHT.
ONLY OTHER PRECIP ISSUE WILL BE FROM MULTIPLE MCS CLUSTERS W OF
THE MTNS. MODELS ARE NOT DOING A VERY GOOD JOB CURRENTLY SO
CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW IN THEIR ABILITY TO FCST THE PRECIP
CHANCES OVERNIGHT. OVERALL THE RUC SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE
ON CURRENT CONDITIONS AND WILL FOLLOW ITS SOLUTION TO SOME EXTENT.
BASED ON RADAR TRENDS...IF MCS`S DO HOLD TOGETHER...PRECIP WOULD
LIKELY NOT MAKE IT TO AKQ CWA UNTIL AFTER 08Z-09Z. HAVE A 20% POP
ALL ZONES AFTER 08Z TO HANDLE THIS.
TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY CONTINUE TO SHOW A LOT OF VARIABILITY...GENLY
IN THE 60S TO LWR 70S IN VA/NE NC...WITH UPPER 40S AT OXB AND IN
THE 50S OVER THE REST OF THE ERN SHORE. LOWS LOOK TO RANGE FROM
THE UPR 40S COASTAL MD...TO UPR 50S/AROUND 60 OVER SE VA/NE NC
(TEMPS ON THE ERN SHORE WILL BE STEADY OR MAY RISE SLIGHTLY AS THE
BOUNDARY LIFTS BACK N).
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY: A SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVES AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL
RESULT IN MORE PCPN FRIDAY. THE ENTIRE AREA WILL HAVE AT LEAST 40
PERCENT POPS FRIDAY. THE BEST INSTABILITY AND GREATEST MOISTURE
WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN PORTION AND INCLUDED LIKELY POPS GENERALLY
SOUTH OF I-64 BUT CUTTING BUT DID NOT INCLUDE THE IMMEDIATE COAST
OR ALBEMARLE SOUND AREA WHERE COOL WATER LIMIT THE INSTABILITY. A
CLOUD COVER AND PCPN WILL HOLD DOWN TEMPERATURES SOME WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 80S EXCEPT IN THE 70S ON THE LOWER EASTERN
SHORE.
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY: DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO FILTER INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AND PCPN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH OVER NORTHERN
PORTIONS. SLIGHT CHC TO CHC WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA WITH TSTMS ALSO POSSIBLE OVER INLAND AREAS.
EASTERLY WINDS WILL HOLD DOWN TEMPERATURES OVER EASTERN PORTIONS ON
SATURDAY. LOW FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 50S. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE 60S OVER THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST RANGING TO THE UPPER 70S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT COUNTIES.
SUNDAY: UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH A WEAK
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTION FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS BOTH SUNDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RUN IN THE 70S EXCEPT 60S ALONG THE
COAST AND LOWER EASTERN SHORE. LOWS WILL BE A BIT COOLER WITH
READINGS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ANCHORED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK. SOME MOISTURE ROTATING
CLOCKWISE AROUND THE HIGH COULD OCCASIONALLY STREAM INTO THE
REGION BUT SHOULD ONLY RESULT IN SOME CLOUDINESS RATHER THAN
PRECIPITATION. OVERALL...A DRYING AND WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED
FOR INLAND AREAS WHILE COASTAL LOCATIONS SHOULD RUN ABOUT 5 TO 10
DEGREES COOLER DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION FRI MORNING AND
MAY BRING ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PSBL
TSTMS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL VA. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN VFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD EXCEPT IN VCNTY OF PRECIP...AND SBY
WHERE NE FLOW COULD PUSH SOME LOW CLOUDS OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
SOME PTCHY DENSE FOG PSBL BY EARLY MORNING BUT THIS WILL LIKELY
DEPEND ON AREAS WHERE PRECIP HAS FALLEN AND SOME CLEARING OCCURS.
UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER WILL CONT FOR FRI WITH ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS THRU THE DAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THRU THE REGION FROM THE NORTH LATE
FRI/EARLY SAT WITH A CHC FOR SHOWERS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
EXCEPT WITH PRECIP.
&&
.MARINE...
A LOW PRESSURE WEAKNESS/SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE ACROSS
NORTHERN WATERS TONIGHT...EVENTUALLY PUSHING OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL PRODUCE SOUTH WINDS OF 15-20 KT OVERNIGHT OVER
CHES BAY AND COASTAL WATERS...AND 10-15 KT OVER CURRITUCK SOUND.
HAVE ISSUED SCA HEADLINES FOR CHES BAY TONIGHT PRIMARILY FOR GUSTS
REACHING 18-20 KT. WINDS ACROSS CHES BAY AND COASTAL WATERS ARE THEN
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW 15 KT JUST AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL BE A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND
AVERAGE 10-15 KT WITH STRONGER GUSTS POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
SEAS SHOULD PRIMARILY BE 2-3 FT...ALTHOUGH NORTHERN AREAS OUT NEAR
20NM COULD EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF 4 FT SEAS WITH THE SOUTHERLY SURGE
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST...THEN EAST...AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY SETTLES SOUTH OF THE
REGION SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES DOWN ALONG
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THIS HIGH DRIFTS SOUTHWARD AND BECOMES
ANCHORED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY THROUGH LATE NEXT
WEEK...CREATING RELATIVELY BENIGN CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
&&
.CLIMATE...
SEVERAL RECORD HIGHS HAVE BEEN SET TODAY...RIC HIT 86/ ORF HIT
87...SBY HIT 80 AND ECG HIT 86. SEE RER`S FOR DETAILS.
(PREVIOUS) RECORD HIGH TEMPS THURS (3/15) AND FRI (3/16)
3/15 3/16
RIC 82/2007 85/1945
ORF 84/1973 84/1945
SBY 80/1990 83/1945
ECG 86/1973 87/1945
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LSA
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LSA
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...DAP/JEF
MARINE...BMD
CLIMATE...AKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
940 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS
CENTRAL MARYLAND OVERNIGHT BUT WILL BEGIN MOVING BACK NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT EARLY FRIDAY. A SECOND FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO
SAG SOUTH OVER THE REGION LATER ON FRIDAY...AND FINALLY PUSH SOUTH
INTO THE CAROLINAS ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
BACK DOOR BOUNDARY HAS WEDGED ITSELF SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL
MARYLAND/EXTREME NORTHERN VIRGINIA THIS EVENING. SURFACE WINDS TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THIS BOUNDARY ARE FROM THE EAST. MORE OF A SOUTH
OR SOUTHWEST WIND WAS OCCURRING ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY.
THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVERNIGHT.
OBSERVATIONS ALONG WITH THE 11-3.9 MICRON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW
THE MARINE LAYER ALREADY PUSHING INLAND THIS EVENING OVER NEW
JERSEY AND DELAWARE. HAVE INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN LOW STRATUS
ALONG WITH POSSIBLE REDUCED VSBYS IN FOG ADVECTING TO THE WEST
LATER THIS EVENING TO AT LEAST CENTRAL MARYLAND. THIS IS SUPPORTED
BY LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR AND NAM...IN ADDITION TO ENSEMBLE DATA.
BIG QUESTION IS HOW FAR WEST STRATUS AND POSSIBLE FOG MAKE IT. BY
DAYBREAK THIS COULD BE TOWARD THE BLUE RIDGE IN EXTREME NORTHERN
VIRGINIA. SOME GUIDANCE DOES BRING LOW VSBYS IN CENTRAL MARYLAND
SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG. CAN/T DISCOUNT THIS...BUT
AM LEANING TOWARD THIS BEING MORE STRATUS DOMINANT ATTM WITH VSBYS
DOWN TO AROUND 1 MILE.
ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY...WHILE THERE MAY NOT BE LOW
STRATUS OR FOG...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY AS PLENTY OF MID
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM IN FROM THE WEST. HAVE
BACKED OFF ON CHANCES OF SHOWERS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT SOME
PVA IN ADVANCE OF A TROUGH WILL APPROACH LATER TONIGHT WHICH WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY EVEN A THUNDERSTORM
ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY THAT IS DRAPED ACROSS THE OHIO RVR VLY WILL
BEGIN TO DRIFT EWD AND INTO THE NWRN SECTIONS OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT.
ANYWHERE ALONG THE BOUNDARY...ISOLATED BATCHES OF SHOWER/TSTM
ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY FRI.
HOWEVER...THIS BOUNDARY WILL BECOME THE FOCUS FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
ACTIVITY DURING THE DAYTIME HRS. THE BACKDOOR FRONT THAT IS
CURRENTLY SLIDING INTO THE NERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WILL JOIN-UP W/
THE PSEUDO-STATIONARY FRONT...BISECTING THE CWA TOMORROW DURING THE
DAYTIME HRS. BY EVE AND OVERNIGHT...THE BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT
BACK TOWARD THE NORTH AND EAST AS A WARM FRONT.
NEARLY OVERCAST SKIES THROUGHOUT THE DAY WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL TO MAINLY WEAK AND ELEVATED STORMS. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
TOMORROW WILL BE NUMEROUS BATCHES OF LIGHT-MODERATE RAIN /EMBEDDED
HEAVIER SHOWERS/. TSTM CLUSTERS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL HAVE SOME OF
THE SAME CHARACTERISTICS AS THE OHIO VLY STORMS TODAY...ISOLATED AND
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN-SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS - BUT SHORT-LIVED. HIGHS
TOMORROW WILL BE TEMPERED EVEN FURTHER FROM TODAY...CLIMBING INTO
THE M-U70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE CWFA
FRIDAY EVENING. ANY INSTABILITY WILL BE LOST WITH THE SETTING OF THE
SUN...AS FORCING REMAINS WEAK ALONG THE BOUNDARY. POPS WILL DECREASE
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BEFORE MIDNIGHT. SOME SCT ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWFA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PASSES TO THE SOUTH.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD FOR THE LATE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
MODELS DO HINT AT SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SCT/ISO POPS LOOKED GOOD FOR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND MADE NO CHANGES. COVERAGE BECOMES MORE ISOLATED
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...SO LEFT VERY SMALL CHANCE POPS OUT FOR NOW.
THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK LOOKS DRY.
TEMPS FOR NEXT WEEK LOOK TO BE AROUND 20 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT MTN...BWI...AND EVENTUALLY DCA
AND IAD OVERNIGHT /ONSET TIME LIKELY IN THAT ORDER/. SFC OBS AND
3.9 MICROMETER SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A MARINE LAYER MOVING
WESTWARD ALONG THE DELMARVA AND NEW JERSEY COAST. CIGS TO 200FT
AND VSBYS DOWN TO 3/4 OF A MILE ARE ALREADY BEING OBSERVED FROM
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WITH THIS LAYER. EASTERLY FLOW...WHICH WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...WILL PUSH THIS LAYER FURTHER INLAND WITH IT
FIRST REACHING MTN CLOSE TO 04Z. FROM THERE IT WILL OVERSPREAD BWI
AND DCA THROUGH 06Z. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN GUIDANCE AS TO
HOW FAR WEST THIS MARINE AIR WILL REACH. AT THE MOMENT...IAD HAS
SWITCHED TO PREVAILING SE FLOW SO HAVE INCLUDED CIGS TO IFR LEVELS
AND LOWER VSBYS AROUND 08Z. HAVE KEPT CHO/MRB TO THE WEST OF THE
MARINE LAYER ATTM. RADIATION FOG SHOULD ALSO BE KEPT TO A MINIMUM
WITH PLENTY OF MID CLOUDS OVERHEAD.
FLOW WILL SWITCH TO WESTERLY FRIDAY MORNING BUT EXPECT IT TO TAKE
A COUPLE OF HOURS TO SCOUR OUT THE MARINE LAYER. HAVE VSBYS AND
CIGS SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVING AROUND 14-15Z. VSBY REDUCTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS AREA TERMINALS AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS SHOWERS
FROM A SFC TROUGH CROSS THE REGION.
THE CIRRUS SHIELD FROM EARLIER TODAY IS ABOUT GONE...W/ BATCHES
OF CUMULUS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE VA/MD PIEDMONT. A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND A COUPLE OF TSTMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MID ATLC. THESE
LOW CHANCES FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL REMAIN STEADY
OVERNIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW...BETTER CHANCES FRI AFTN/EVE. A SLOW-
MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT INTO THE REGION
TOMORROW...BEING THE FOCUS FOR MORE WIDESPREAD BUT SHORT-LIVED
PRECIP ACTIVITY.
SCT CONVECTION SHOULD END WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING FRIDAY EVENING.
PATCHY MVFR FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. OTHERWISE...NO RESTRICTIONS TO CIG/VSBYS EXPECTED.
&&
.MARINE...
BACK DOOR BOUNDARY LOOKED TO BE JUST NORTH OF COVE POINT ON THE
BAY THIS EVENING. DON/T EXPECT MUCH MOVEMENT. SOUTHERLY FLOW WAS
NEAR SCA THRESHOLDS TO THE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WITHIN THE BAY.
HAVE ISSUED A SCA FOR THE BAY FROM NORTH BEACH TO DRUM POINT AND
ALSO INCLUDED THE FAR LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER FOR THE OVERNIGHT.
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE BACK TOWARD THE NE ON FRI MRNG...W/ INCREASING
CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR MUCH OF THE DAYTIME
HRS.
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH OF THE WATERS ON
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FOR THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEKEND...WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. WIND SPEEDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
AOB 15KT...OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION.
&&
.CLIMATE...
NEW RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 15 WERE SET AT DCA AND IAD
TODAY. BELOW ARE THE RECORDED HIGHS FOR TODAY AND THE PREVIOUS
RECORD. PLEASE ALSO SEE CLIDCA...RERDCA...CLIIAD...AND RERIAD FOR
FURTHER INFORMATION.
DCA...82F AT 216PM...OLD RECORD WAS 81F SET IN 1990.
IAD...84F AT 316PM...OLD RECORD WAS 82F SET IN 1990.
THIS WAS THE THIRD CONSECUTIVE DAY TO REACH AT LEAST 80F AT BOTH
DCA AND IAD. THE LAST OCCURRENCE OF AT LEAST THREE CONSECUTIVE
DAYS WITH 80F OR GREATER TEMPERATURES IN MARCH AT BOTH SITES WAS
AT THE END OF LATE MARCH 1998.
PRELIMINARY DATA INDICATES THAT THIS YEAR HAD THE SECOND HIGHEST
AVERAGE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE FROM MARCH 1 TO 15 IN THE WASHINGTON DC
CLIMATE RECORD DATING BACK TO 1872. IN 1921...THE AVERAGE MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURE FROM MARCH 1 TO 15 WAS 65.3...WHILE THAT SAME PERIOD
THIS YEAR HAD AN AVERAGE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE OF 64.7.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ533-534-537-
543.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BPP/NWL
NEAR TERM...BPP/GMS
SHORT TERM...GMS
LONG TERM...NWL
AVIATION...CJL/BPP/GMS/NWL
MARINE...BPP/GMS/NWL
CLIMATE...BAJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
715 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO
GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW WITH DRY CONDITIONS SATURDAY AND TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY WARM INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NO CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE EARLY EVE UPDATE OTHER THAN TWEAKS TO
HOURLY TRENDS.
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DIVERGE ON THE EXTENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
RECENT RADAR DATA AND HRRR MODEL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO SHOW NO MORE
THAN ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA INTO EARLY EVENING. RECENT
SREF MODEL OUTPUT, SOMEWHAT SUPPORTED BY RECENT HRRR AND WRF-ARW
MODEL OUTPUT, SUGGEST A BAND OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY LATE
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
GIVEN SPC DEPICTION OF SLIGHT RISK FOR EAST CENTRAL OHIO AND
INCREASED INSTABILITY OVER THOSE COUNTIES AS MOISTURE SUPPLY
IMPROVED...HAVE ADDED A MENTION TO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
FOR THE EVENING. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN ISOLATED SEVERE DEVELOPMENT
IS MINIMAL THOUGH GIVEN THE LACK OF SHEAR...AND INSTABILITY WL
DECREASE AS THE EVE PROGRESSES.
FOR CONTINUITY, CONTINUED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY AS MOST SREF MEMBERS SHOW THE BAND OF SHOWERS HAVING EXITED
BY MORNING, AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. INCREASING.
FORECASTED TEMPERATURES BASED ON BLEND OF RECENT GFS AND NAM MOS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
EAST COAST WILL PROVIDE UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY AND
CHANCE ON SUNDAY. INCONSISTENCY STILL EXISTS BETWEEN THE NAM AND
GFS FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
TREND OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK.
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD BE SET IN AREAS AROUND PITTSBURGH
AND SOUTH WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER 70S. CURRENT RECORD
HIGHS FOR SPECIFIC SITES ARE LISTED IN THE CLIMATE SECTION.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEAK TROF MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKES COULD TRIGGER SCATTERED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
GFS MAINTAINS CONSIDERABLY STRONGER SHORT WAVE THAN OTHER MODELS. AN
UPPER RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK
AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS
PROGGED TO HOLD ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND MAINTAIN SOUTHWEST
FLOW ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION.
MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES AVERAGING NEARLY 20 DEGREES PER DAY ABOVE NORMAL.
NEXT FRONT APPROACHES UPPER OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EVE. WEAK FRONT
LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE ACROSS REGION LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...PROVIDING FOCUS FOR SOME SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WITH MVFR.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER REGION.
OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
WEAK UPPER TROF MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES LATE SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT MAY TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
BEST CHANCE OF RESTRICTIONS ACROSS NORTHERN PA.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 17.
PITTSBURGH PA 73 SET IN 1945.
ZANESVILLE OH 74 SET IN 1989.
MORGANTOWN WV 75 SET IN 1989.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
133 PM EDT WED MAR 14 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 413 AM EDT WED MAR 14 2012
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW UPR RDG OVER MN
BTWN CLOSED LO SHIFTING SEWD THRU QUEBEC AND A MEAN TROF ALONG THE W
COAST. WITH CWA UNDER THE CONFLUENT NW FLOW ALF/12HR H3 RISES AOA
100M...ASSOCIATED SFC HI PRES RDG IS BRINGING TRANQUIL WX/MOCLR
SKIES. AIRMASS IN PLACE IS ALSO RELATIVELY DRY PER LOCAL 00Z
RAOBS...SO SFC TEMPS HAVE FALLEN AOB 32 AT MANY INTERIOR COLD
LOCATIONS WITH THE MOCLR SKIES/LGT WINDS. BUT A MUCH WARMER AIRMASS
IS EVIDENT JUST TO THE W UNDER THE STRONG SLY FLOW BTWN THE SFC HI
PRES RDG OVER THE GRT LKS AND LOWER PRES IN THE HI PLAINS ASSOCIATED
WITH STRONG SHRTWV LIFTING NEWD THRU SW CAN TO THE E OF TROF ALONG
THE W COAST. 00Z H85 TEMPS REACHED AOA 15C ALL THE WAY UP TO GLASGOW
MONTANA AND BISMARCK...AND SFC HI TEMPS WERE UP TO 75 IN EASTERN
MONTANA AND WRN NDAKOTA UNDER THIS WARM SURGE. PIERRE SDAKOTA
REPORTED A MAX TEMP OF 82. THE AIRMASS IN THE CENTRAL AND NRN PLAINS
IS VERY DRY PER 00Z PWAT OF 0.14/0.17 AT RAPID CITY SDAKOTA/NORTH
PLATTE NEBRASKA. BUT A SURGE OF HIER SFC DWPTS IS NOTED MOVING N FM
THE SRN PLAINS...WITH SFC DWPTS AT 03Z UP TO 55 AT KANSAS CITY UNDER
THE STRONG S WINDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EDT WED MAR 14 2012
TODAY...AS SFC HI PRES SHIFTS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND SFC
TROF/COLD FNT ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP SHRTWV LIFTING FM SW CAN TOWARD
HUDSON BAY MOVES INTO WRN LK SUP IN THE AFTN...STRONGER SSW FLOW
UNDER SHARPER PRES GRADIENT BTWN THESE FEATURES IS FCST TO LIFT H85
TEMPS UP TO 12-14C THIS AFTN. ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE MORE COPIOUS LLVL
MSTR IS FCST TO PUSH IN THIS AFTN...THE ARRIVAL OF THIS MSTR WL
COINCIDE WITH PEAK HEATING TIME...SO THERE SHOULD NOT BE MUCH IN THE
WAY OF CLD COVER AHEAD OF THE APRCHG TROF/FNT. WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE AND MIXING TO H85 ON NAM FCST SDNGS...EXPECT TEMPS OVER THE
INTERIOR W TO REACH 70 TO 75. AREAS OVER THE E HALF WL BE COOLER
DOWNWIND OF THE MODIFYING INFLUENCE OF LK MI. DAILY RECORD HI TEMPS
OF 62 AT IWD...56 AT CMX...67 AT IMT...AND 60 AT THE MQT NWS OFFICE
ARE IN SERIOUS JEOPARDY. THE ARRIVAL OF THE SFC COLD FNT LATE OVER
THE W WL BRING SOME MORE CLDS/COOLER TEMPS TOWARD EVNG...BUT THE
OVERALL AIRMASS WL BE TOO DRY WITH PERSISTENT INVRN H75-8 TO SUPPORT
ANY PCPN CONSIDERING THE ABSENCE OF H5 FALLS WITH PASSAGE OF THE
MAIN DYNAMICS WELL TO THE N CLOSER TO SHRTWV TRACK. SO IGNORED THE
LGT QPF GENERATED BY THE 00Z GFS.
TNGT...AS MAIN SHRTWV TO THE N MOVES ACRS HUDSON BAY...SFC COOL FNT
WL DRIFT W-E ACRS THE CWA AND INTO NRN LWR MI BY 12Z THU. MODELS...
ESPECIALLY THE GFS...GENERATE SPOTTY QPF OVER MAINLY THE SE ZNS IN
THE EVNG JUST AHEAD OF THE TROF. SINCE THE INCOMING LLVL MSTR DOES
GET DEEPER AND UP TO H85-8 PER NAM FCST SDNGS...OPTED TO MAINTAIN
SCHC POPS FM ROUGHLY MNM TO ERY THRU ABOUT 06Z...WHEN DRYING WITH A
WSHFT TO THE W BEHIND THE FROPA WL ADVECT DRIER AIR EWD. OPTED TO
ADD MENTION OF ELEVATED TS GIVEN STEEP MID LVL LAPSE RATES ABV LLVL
MOISTENING. PERSISTENCE OF INVRN H8-75 IN ABSENCE OF SGNFT MID LVL
DYNAMICS WL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR ANY SHRA/TS. ALTHOUGH THERE
WL BE DRYING ALF AS HI PRES MOVES ACRS NW LK SUP UNDER WSW FLOW
ALF... VARIOUS GUIDANCE SHOWS MORE LLVL MSTR PERSISTING EVEN AFT THE
FROPA. SO TENDED TO MAINTAIN MORE CLD COVER THRU THE NGT WHERE THE
NW VEERING N WIND WL UPSLOPE.
THU...WITH PERSISTENT WSW FLOW ALF BTWN MEAN UPR RDG OVER THE SE
CONUS AND TROFFING OUT W...SFC HI PRES IS PROGGED TO DRIFT INTO
QUEBEC...LEAVING A SFC RDG OVER THE UPR LKS. ALTHOUGH DRY AIR IN THE
MID LVLS WL RESULT IN A PCPN-FREE DAY...VARIOUS MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW LINGERING LLVL MSTR WITH SHALLOW COOL AIR INFUSION MAINTAINING
FAIRLY SHARP SFC-BASED INVRN. TRICKY TEMPS FCST FOR THU CONSIDERING
DIFFERENCES IN LLVL MSTR SHOWN BY THE VARIOUS MODELS AND POTENTIAL
FOR MORE PERSISTENT ST/SC. TENDED COOLEST NEAR THE LK SHORES WITH
LGT NE FLOW TENDING TO VEER E AND GREATER HEATING INLAND SUPPORTING
LK BREEZE COOLING. ALTHOUGH TEMPS WL BE CONSIDERABLY COOLER THAN
TDAY AND PROBABLY CLOSER TO THE LOWER NAM GUIDANCE GIVEN RATHER HI
STABILITY SHOWN ON FCST SDNGS/POTENTIAL LO CLDS...READINGS WL STILL
BE WELL ABV NORMAL FOR THE IDES OF MARCH.
THU NGT...MAJORITY OF MODELS SHOW WEAK SHRTWV MOVING IN FM THE
WSW...CAUSING LGT LLVL FLOW TO VEER MORE TO THE S. WHILE THIS WSHFT
MIGHT LIMIT UPSLOPE CLD OFF LK SUP...CONCERN SOME ST/SC COULD DRIFT
IN FM LK MI/BAY OF GREEN BAY. SINCE THE FLOW WL BE LGT AND THE MID
LVLS DRY...ALSO MAINTAINED PATCHY FOG IN THE FCST OVER THE E
DOWNWIND OF LK MI.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EDT WED MAR 14 2012
WEAK DISTURBANCE THAT MOVED JUST N OF LK SUPERIOR ON THURS NIGHT
WILL SHIFT E OF THE AREA ON FRI...ALLOWING THE UPPER RIDGE TO
RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON FRI AND FRI NIGHT.
FRI... MOSTLY SUNNY DUE TO DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE UPPER
RIDGE AND EXITING SFC HIGH. MIX TO H900 WOULD YIELD TEMPS IN THE
LOW-MID 60S AWAY FROM LK MI INFLUENCES. MODEL CONSENSUS IS A LIGHT
SE BREEZE...WHICH COULD PRODUCE ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA AND LEADS TO THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT LK BREEZES OVER THE W
AND NCTNRL. LATEST NAM HAS TRENDED TOWARDS STRONGER WINDS AS IT
TRIES TO MIX INTO THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT...WHICH WOULD LIMIT LK
BREEZE POTENTIAL.
FRI NIGHT...SRLY FLOW INCREASES AS THE AREA IS BETWEEN SFC HIGH OVER
SW QUEBEC AND LOW NEAR LK WINNIPEG. THIS TRIES TO PULL ADDITIONAL
LLVL MOISTURE OVER THE AREA. GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH
THIS...WHICH ATTEMPTS TO SOCK THE AREA IN WITH LOW CLOUDS BELOW THE
INVERSION AROUND H850-800. NAM A LITTLE SLOWER...BUT EVENTUALLY
SHOWS A SIMILAR SITUATION. NOT ENTIRELY CONFIDENT THIS WILL
OCCUR...BUT WILL TREND TOWARDS A MORE CLOUDY SOLN. IF THIS LLVL
MOISTURE DOES OCCUR...EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP OVER LK MI AND MOVE INTO
THE ERN CWA. HAVE ADDED A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG NEAR/OVER LK MI AND
ADDED IT OVER NRN LK SUPERIOR OVERNIGHT.
MODELS STILL OUTPUTTING PCPN...LIKELY LIGHT DRIZZLE...IN ONLY A 1 TO
MAYBE 2KFT AREA OF MOISTURE/CLOUDS NEAR THE SFC. REALLY NOT BUYING
THAT SITUATION...SO WILL CAP POPS JUST BELOW SLIGHT CHANCES.
DAYS 4 THROUGH 7 /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ANOMALOUS H500 HEIGHTS...AROUND 2-3 STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL FOR
MID-LATE MARCH WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
OTHER THAN A COUPLE WEAK IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE SWRLY FLOW
ALOFT...EXPECT A FAIRLY WARM/DRY PERIOD TO CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR A WEAK WAVE LOOKS TO BE ON SAT AFTN INTO SUN
MORN. MODELS SHOWING SOME MOISTURE TO WORK WITH ABOVE H850 AND
ELEVATED INSTABILITY WOULD SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER IF ANY
SHOWERS DEVELOP WITH THE WEAK SHORTWAVE. OTHERWISE...DON/T SEE ANY
SIGNIFICANT WAVES OR FORCING AFFECTING THE AREA.
MAIN FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED IS LLVL MOISTURE AND TEMPS. 00Z GFS
CONTINUES TO SHOW ABUNDANT LLVL MOISTURE BELOW THE H850 INVERSION
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. 12Z ECMWF...EVEN WITH THE LIMITED LOWER
LEVELS AVAILABLE DOESN/T SHOW THAT EXTENT OF LLVL MOISTURE. GEM DOES
HINT AT IT AND WONDERING IF IT WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN WITH MORE
CLOUDS AT NIGHT AND THEN ATTEMPT TO MIX OUT DURING THE DAY. IT IS
ONE OF THOSE TOUGH SITUATIONS...DUE TO NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES AND
THE DECENT CAP...WHICH COULD LEAD TO LOW CLOUDS BECOMING TRAPPED
BELOW THE INVERSION AND STRUGGLING TO BREAK OUT. DON/T HAVE ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE ONE WAY OR ANOTHER TO BUCK THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND WILL
LEAVE IT AS IS. MODELS TRYING TO DROP A HUNDREDTH OF QPF OVER THE
GREAT LKS...WHICH IS LARGELY A FUNCTION OF THE LLVL MOISTURE AND
RESULTANT FOG. ADDED PATCHY FOG NEAR LK MI FOR SAT/SUN AND ALSO LK
SUPERIOR JUST OFF SHORE FROM UPPER MI WITH THE SSE FLOW. MAY NEED TO
EXTEND IT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD IF LLVL MOISTURE PANS
OUT...WHICH WOULD PROBABLY PRODUCE SOME DENSE PERIODS.
TEMPS REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AWAY FROM THE SOUTHERLY WINDS OF LK
MI. LOW CLOUDS/FOG COULD CAUSE ISSUES WITH THESE TEMPS AND ONLY
CHANGES MADE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS WAS TO WARM UP DOWNSLOPE AREAS
NEAR LK SUPERIOR.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 132 PM EDT WED MAR 14 2012
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THIS AFTN
UNDER VERY DRY AIRMASS. A COLD FRONT ARRIVING LATE THIS AFTN OVER
WRN UPPER MI WILL BRING A WSHFT BY 00Z AT KIWD/KCMX AND LATER IN THE
EVENING AT KSAW. THERE ARE QUESTIONS AS TO HOW MUCH LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL TRAIL THE FRONT AND WHETHER LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP IN
THE SHALLOW COOL AIRMASS ENHANCED BY THE CHILLY MARINE LAYER FROM
LAKE SUPERIOR. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS KSAW SHOULD HAVE THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR AN IFR CIG AND POTENTIALLY FOG TO DEVELOP
BEHIND THE FRONT LATER TONIGHT AS WINDS VEER TO A MORE UPSLOPE
NORTHERLY DIRECTION. IF DWPTS RISE MORE SUBSTANTIALLY ALONG
APPROACHING FRONT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS...LOW CLOUDS MAY BE MUCH
MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT. UPSTREAM...SFC DWPTS FALL OFF QUITE A BIT
BEHIND COLD FRONT...SO WHERE LOW CLOUDS DO DEVELOP TONIGHT...THEY
SHOULD CLEAR OUT MID TO LATE MORNING THU.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EDT WED MAR 14 2012
EXPECT WINDS TO BE GENERALLY UNDER 25 KTS INTO THIS WEEKEND AS A
RELATIVELY WEAK PRES GRADIENT DOMINATES. ALTHOUGH A SHARPER PRES
GRADIENT/STRONGER S FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND...THE
UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL ALSO RESULT IN
PERSISTENT MARINE LAYER/STRONG STABILITY OVER THE LAKE...HELPING TO
KEEP SURFACE WINDS ON THE LIGHTER SIDE. AT SOME POINT...FOG MAY
BECOME AN ISSUE...BUT EXPECTED DRY WEATHER THRU THE WEEKEND WILL
LIMIT THIS POTENTIAL.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 413 AM EDT WED MAR 14 2012
WARM TEMPERATURES OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...ALONG WITH RAIN OF
0.10 TO MORE THAN 0.5 INCH ON MON HAS LED TO INCREASED SNOWMELT/
RUNOFF. THIS RUNOFF HAS PRODUCED SOME RISE IN LEVELS OF RIVERS IN
UPR MI OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. TEMPS HAVE FALLEN BLO 32 AT
MANY SPOTS OVER THE CWA EARLY THIS MRNG...BRINGING A TEMPORARY
RESPITE TO THE STEADY MELTING.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO MELT THE
SNOW PACK AND LEAD TO FURTHER INCREASES IN RIVER AND STREAM LEVELS.
DESPITE THE BREAK EARLY THIS MRNG...A PERIOD OF RAPID MELTING WILL
OCCUR TODAY...AS TEMPERATURES RISE AOA 70 DEGREES OVER THE WEST AND
DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE 40S LATER IN THE DAY. ALTHOUGH A COOLER
AIRMASS WILL ARRIVE ON THU...EXPECT SOME OF THE RIVERS ACROSS THE
AREA TO EXCEED THEIR BANKS BY THE END OF THIS WEEK. PERSONS LIVING
NEAR RIVERS AND STREAMS SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST RIVER CONDITIONS
AND USE CAUTION IF WALKING ALONG RIVER BANKS...ESPECIALLY THE
CHOCOLAY RIVER...TRAP ROCK RIVER...AND THE STURGEON RIVER IN WESTERN
UPPER MICHIGAN.
THERE WAS AN APPARENT ICE JAM ON THE ONTONAGON RIVER NEAR ROCKLAND
MON EVENING. THIS CAUSED THE RIVER LEVELS TO RISE 4FT BEFORE IT
BROKE FREE. WILL NEED TO MONITOR CONDITIONS ALONG THE ONTONAGON RIVER
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AS THE NUMEROUS BENDS COULD CAUSE THE ICE
TO FORM ANOTHER JAM. IN ADDITION...ICE WAS REPORTED ON THE FORD RIVER
AT HYDE AND THE MOUTH AT LK MI. DEPENDING ON THE BREAKUP OF THE
ICE...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR ICE JAMS THIS WEEK.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KC
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KC
HYDROLOGY...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
721 AM EDT WED MAR 14 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 413 AM EDT WED MAR 14 2012
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW UPR RDG OVER MN
BTWN CLOSED LO SHIFTING SEWD THRU QUEBEC AND A MEAN TROF ALONG THE W
COAST. WITH CWA UNDER THE CONFLUENT NW FLOW ALF/12HR H3 RISES AOA
100M...ASSOCIATED SFC HI PRES RDG IS BRINGING TRANQUIL WX/MOCLR
SKIES. AIRMASS IN PLACE IS ALSO RELATIVELY DRY PER LOCAL 00Z
RAOBS...SO SFC TEMPS HAVE FALLEN AOB 32 AT MANY INTERIOR COLD
LOCATIONS WITH THE MOCLR SKIES/LGT WINDS. BUT A MUCH WARMER AIRMASS
IS EVIDENT JUST TO THE W UNDER THE STRONG SLY FLOW BTWN THE SFC HI
PRES RDG OVER THE GRT LKS AND LOWER PRES IN THE HI PLAINS ASSOCIATED
WITH STRONG SHRTWV LIFTING NEWD THRU SW CAN TO THE E OF TROF ALONG
THE W COAST. 00Z H85 TEMPS REACHED AOA 15C ALL THE WAY UP TO GLASGOW
MONTANA AND BISMARCK...AND SFC HI TEMPS WERE UP TO 75 IN EASTERN
MONTANA AND WRN NDAKOTA UNDER THIS WARM SURGE. PIERRE SDAKOTA
REPORTED A MAX TEMP OF 82. THE AIRMASS IN THE CENTRAL AND NRN PLAINS
IS VERY DRY PER 00Z PWAT OF 0.14/0.17 AT RAPID CITY SDAKOTA/NORTH
PLATTE NEBRASKA. BUT A SURGE OF HIER SFC DWPTS IS NOTED MOVING N FM
THE SRN PLAINS...WITH SFC DWPTS AT 03Z UP TO 55 AT KANSAS CITY UNDER
THE STRONG S WINDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EDT WED MAR 14 2012
TODAY...AS SFC HI PRES SHIFTS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND SFC
TROF/COLD FNT ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP SHRTWV LIFTING FM SW CAN TOWARD
HUDSON BAY MOVES INTO WRN LK SUP IN THE AFTN...STRONGER SSW FLOW
UNDER SHARPER PRES GRADIENT BTWN THESE FEATURES IS FCST TO LIFT H85
TEMPS UP TO 12-14C THIS AFTN. ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE MORE COPIOUS LLVL
MSTR IS FCST TO PUSH IN THIS AFTN...THE ARRIVAL OF THIS MSTR WL
COINCIDE WITH PEAK HEATING TIME...SO THERE SHOULD NOT BE MUCH IN THE
WAY OF CLD COVER AHEAD OF THE APRCHG TROF/FNT. WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE AND MIXING TO H85 ON NAM FCST SDNGS...EXPECT TEMPS OVER THE
INTERIOR W TO REACH 70 TO 75. AREAS OVER THE E HALF WL BE COOLER
DOWNWIND OF THE MODIFYING INFLUENCE OF LK MI. DAILY RECORD HI TEMPS
OF 62 AT IWD...56 AT CMX...67 AT IMT...AND 60 AT THE MQT NWS OFFICE
ARE IN SERIOUS JEOPARDY. THE ARRIVAL OF THE SFC COLD FNT LATE OVER
THE W WL BRING SOME MORE CLDS/COOLER TEMPS TOWARD EVNG...BUT THE
OVERALL AIRMASS WL BE TOO DRY WITH PERSISTENT INVRN H75-8 TO SUPPORT
ANY PCPN CONSIDERING THE ABSENCE OF H5 FALLS WITH PASSAGE OF THE
MAIN DYNAMICS WELL TO THE N CLOSER TO SHRTWV TRACK. SO IGNORED THE
LGT QPF GENERATED BY THE 00Z GFS.
TNGT...AS MAIN SHRTWV TO THE N MOVES ACRS HUDSON BAY...SFC COOL FNT
WL DRIFT W-E ACRS THE CWA AND INTO NRN LWR MI BY 12Z THU. MODELS...
ESPECIALLY THE GFS...GENERATE SPOTTY QPF OVER MAINLY THE SE ZNS IN
THE EVNG JUST AHEAD OF THE TROF. SINCE THE INCOMING LLVL MSTR DOES
GET DEEPER AND UP TO H85-8 PER NAM FCST SDNGS...OPTED TO MAINTAIN
SCHC POPS FM ROUGHLY MNM TO ERY THRU ABOUT 06Z...WHEN DRYING WITH A
WSHFT TO THE W BEHIND THE FROPA WL ADVECT DRIER AIR EWD. OPTED TO
ADD MENTION OF ELEVATED TS GIVEN STEEP MID LVL LAPSE RATES ABV LLVL
MOISTENING. PERSISTENCE OF INVRN H8-75 IN ABSENCE OF SGNFT MID LVL
DYNAMICS WL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR ANY SHRA/TS. ALTHOUGH THERE
WL BE DRYING ALF AS HI PRES MOVES ACRS NW LK SUP UNDER WSW FLOW
ALF... VARIOUS GUIDANCE SHOWS MORE LLVL MSTR PERSISTING EVEN AFT THE
FROPA. SO TENDED TO MAINTAIN MORE CLD COVER THRU THE NGT WHERE THE
NW VEERING N WIND WL UPSLOPE.
THU...WITH PERSISTENT WSW FLOW ALF BTWN MEAN UPR RDG OVER THE SE
CONUS AND TROFFING OUT W...SFC HI PRES IS PROGGED TO DRIFT INTO
QUEBEC...LEAVING A SFC RDG OVER THE UPR LKS. ALTHOUGH DRY AIR IN THE
MID LVLS WL RESULT IN A PCPN-FREE DAY...VARIOUS MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW LINGERING LLVL MSTR WITH SHALLOW COOL AIR INFUSION MAINTAINING
FAIRLY SHARP SFC-BASED INVRN. TRICKY TEMPS FCST FOR THU CONSIDERING
DIFFERENCES IN LLVL MSTR SHOWN BY THE VARIOUS MODELS AND POTENTIAL
FOR MORE PERSISTENT ST/SC. TENDED COOLEST NEAR THE LK SHORES WITH
LGT NE FLOW TENDING TO VEER E AND GREATER HEATING INLAND SUPPORTING
LK BREEZE COOLING. ALTHOUGH TEMPS WL BE CONSIDERABLY COOLER THAN
TDAY AND PROBABLY CLOSER TO THE LOWER NAM GUIDANCE GIVEN RATHER HI
STABILITY SHOWN ON FCST SDNGS/POTENTIAL LO CLDS...READINGS WL STILL
BE WELL ABV NORMAL FOR THE IDES OF MARCH.
THU NGT...MAJORITY OF MODELS SHOW WEAK SHRTWV MOVING IN FM THE
WSW...CAUSING LGT LLVL FLOW TO VEER MORE TO THE S. WHILE THIS WSHFT
MIGHT LIMIT UPSLOPE CLD OFF LK SUP...CONCERN SOME ST/SC COULD DRIFT
IN FM LK MI/BAY OF GREEN BAY. SINCE THE FLOW WL BE LGT AND THE MID
LVLS DRY...ALSO MAINTAINED PATCHY FOG IN THE FCST OVER THE E
DOWNWIND OF LK MI.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EDT WED MAR 14 2012
WEAK DISTURBANCE THAT MOVED JUST N OF LK SUPERIOR ON THURS NIGHT
WILL SHIFT E OF THE AREA ON FRI...ALLOWING THE UPPER RIDGE TO
RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON FRI AND FRI NIGHT.
FRI... MOSTLY SUNNY DUE TO DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE UPPER
RIDGE AND EXITING SFC HIGH. MIX TO H900 WOULD YIELD TEMPS IN THE
LOW-MID 60S AWAY FROM LK MI INFLUENCES. MODEL CONSENSUS IS A LIGHT
SE BREEZE...WHICH COULD PRODUCE ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA AND LEADS TO THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT LK BREEZES OVER THE W
AND NCTNRL. LATEST NAM HAS TRENDED TOWARDS STRONGER WINDS AS IT
TRIES TO MIX INTO THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT...WHICH WOULD LIMIT LK
BREEZE POTENTIAL.
FRI NIGHT...SRLY FLOW INCREASES AS THE AREA IS BETWEEN SFC HIGH OVER
SW QUEBEC AND LOW NEAR LK WINNIPEG. THIS TRIES TO PULL ADDITIONAL
LLVL MOISTURE OVER THE AREA. GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH
THIS...WHICH ATTEMPTS TO SOCK THE AREA IN WITH LOW CLOUDS BELOW THE
INVERSION AROUND H850-800. NAM A LITTLE SLOWER...BUT EVENTUALLY
SHOWS A SIMILAR SITUATION. NOT ENTIRELY CONFIDENT THIS WILL
OCCUR...BUT WILL TREND TOWARDS A MORE CLOUDY SOLN. IF THIS LLVL
MOISTURE DOES OCCUR...EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP OVER LK MI AND MOVE INTO
THE ERN CWA. HAVE ADDED A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG NEAR/OVER LK MI AND
ADDED IT OVER NRN LK SUPERIOR OVERNIGHT.
MODELS STILL OUTPUTTING PCPN...LIKELY LIGHT DRIZZLE...IN ONLY A 1 TO
MAYBE 2KFT AREA OF MOISTURE/CLOUDS NEAR THE SFC. REALLY NOT BUYING
THAT SITUATION...SO WILL CAP POPS JUST BELOW SLIGHT CHANCES.
DAYS 4 THROUGH 7 /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ANOMALOUS H500 HEIGHTS...AROUND 2-3 STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL FOR
MID-LATE MARCH WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
OTHER THAN A COUPLE WEAK IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE SWRLY FLOW
ALOFT...EXPECT A FAIRLY WARM/DRY PERIOD TO CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR A WEAK WAVE LOOKS TO BE ON SAT AFTN INTO SUN
MORN. MODELS SHOWING SOME MOISTURE TO WORK WITH ABOVE H850 AND
ELEVATED INSTABILITY WOULD SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER IF ANY
SHOWERS DEVELOP WITH THE WEAK SHORTWAVE. OTHERWISE...DON/T SEE ANY
SIGNIFICANT WAVES OR FORCING AFFECTING THE AREA.
MAIN FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED IS LLVL MOISTURE AND TEMPS. 00Z GFS
CONTINUES TO SHOW ABUNDANT LLVL MOISTURE BELOW THE H850 INVERSION
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. 12Z ECMWF...EVEN WITH THE LIMITED LOWER
LEVELS AVAILABLE DOESN/T SHOW THAT EXTENT OF LLVL MOISTURE. GEM DOES
HINT AT IT AND WONDERING IF IT WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN WITH MORE
CLOUDS AT NIGHT AND THEN ATTEMPT TO MIX OUT DURING THE DAY. IT IS
ONE OF THOSE TOUGH SITUATIONS...DUE TO NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES AND
THE DECENT CAP...WHICH COULD LEAD TO LOW CLOUDS BECOMING TRAPPED
BELOW THE INVERSION AND STRUGGLING TO BREAK OUT. DON/T HAVE ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE ONE WAY OR ANOTHER TO BUCK THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND WILL
LEAVE IT AS IS. MODELS TRYING TO DROP A HUNDREDTH OF QPF OVER THE
GREAT LKS...WHICH IS LARGELY A FUNCTION OF THE LLVL MOISTURE AND
RESULTANT FOG. ADDED PATCHY FOG NEAR LK MI FOR SAT/SUN AND ALSO LK
SUPERIOR JUST OFF SHORE FROM UPPER MI WITH THE SSE FLOW. MAY NEED TO
EXTEND IT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD IF LLVL MOISTURE PANS
OUT...WHICH WOULD PROBABLY PRODUCE SOME DENSE PERIODS.
TEMPS REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AWAY FROM THE SOUTHERLY WINDS OF LK
MI. LOW CLOUDS/FOG COULD CAUSE ISSUES WITH THESE TEMPS AND ONLY
CHANGES MADE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS WAS TO WARM UP DOWNSLOPE AREAS
NEAR LK SUPERIOR.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 720 AM EDT WED MAR 14 2012
WITH DAYTIME HEATING...EXPECT STRONG LLVL WINDS JUST ABV SFC
RADIATION INVRN THAT IS CAUSING SOME LLWS AT CMX/IWD TO MIX OUT THIS
MRNG AND RESULT IN SOME GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY AT THE MORE EXPOSED
SAW/IWD LOCATIONS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE WITH VERY DRY
AIRMASS IN PLACE. A COLD FNT WILL ARRIVE LATE TDAY OVER WRN UP MI...
BRINGING A WSHFT BY 00Z AT IWD/CMX AND LATER IN THE EVNG AT SAW.
THERE ARE QUESTIONS AS TO HOW MUCH LLVL MSTR WILL TRAIL THE FNT AND
WHETHER LO CLDS WILL DEVELOP TNGT AT THE TAF SITES IN ITS WAKE. THE
BEST CHC FOR LOWER CIGS WITH UPSLOPE NW VEERING NE WIND LOOKS TO BE
AT SAW...WHICH WL BE FARTHEST FROM CORE OF DRY AIR PASSING WITH SFC
HI PRES ENEWD FROM MINNESOTA INTO ONTARIO.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EDT WED MAR 14 2012
EXPECT WINDS TO BE GENERALLY UNDER 25 KTS INTO THIS WEEKEND AS A
RELATIVELY WEAK PRES GRADIENT DOMINATES. ALTHOUGH A SHARPER PRES
GRADIENT/STRONGER S FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND...THE
UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL ALSO RESULT IN
PERSISTENT MARINE LAYER/STRONG STABILITY OVER THE LAKE...HELPING TO
KEEP SURFACE WINDS ON THE LIGHTER SIDE. AT SOME POINT...FOG MAY
BECOME AN ISSUE...BUT EXPECTED DRY WEATHER THRU THE WEEKEND WILL
LIMIT THIS POTENTIAL.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 413 AM EDT WED MAR 14 2012
WARM TEMPERATURES OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...ALONG WITH RAIN OF
0.10 TO MORE THAN 0.5 INCH ON MON HAS LED TO INCREASED SNOWMELT/
RUNOFF. THIS RUNOFF HAS PRODUCED SOME RISE IN LEVELS OF RIVERS IN
UPR MI OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. TEMPS HAVE FALLEN BLO 32 AT
MANY SPOTS OVER THE CWA EARLY THIS MRNG...BRINGING A TEMPORARY
RESPITE TO THE STEADY MELTING.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO MELT THE
SNOW PACK AND LEAD TO FURTHER INCREASES IN RIVER AND STREAM LEVELS.
DESPITE THE BREAK EARLY THIS MRNG...A PERIOD OF RAPID MELTING WILL
OCCUR TODAY...AS TEMPERATURES RISE AOA 70 DEGREES OVER THE WEST AND
DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE 40S LATER IN THE DAY. ALTHOUGH A COOLER
AIRMASS WILL ARRIVE ON THU...EXPECT SOME OF THE RIVERS ACROSS THE
AREA TO EXCEED THEIR BANKS BY THE END OF THIS WEEK. PERSONS LIVING
NEAR RIVERS AND STREAMS SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST RIVER CONDITIONS
AND USE CAUTION IF WALKING ALONG RIVER BANKS...ESPECIALLY THE
CHOCOLAY RIVER...TRAP ROCK RIVER...AND THE STURGEON RIVER IN WESTERN
UPPER MICHIGAN.
THERE WAS AN APPARENT ICE JAM ON THE ONTONAGON RIVER NEAR ROCKLAND
MON EVENING. THIS CAUSED THE RIVER LEVELS TO RISE 4FT BEFORE IT
BROKE FREE. WILL NEED TO MONITOR CONDITIONS ALONG THE ONTONAGON RIVER
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AS THE NUMEROUS BENDS COULD CAUSE THE ICE
TO FORM ANOTHER JAM. IN ADDITION...ICE WAS REPORTED ON THE FORD RIVER
AT HYDE AND THE MOUTH AT LK MI. DEPENDING ON THE BREAKUP OF THE
ICE...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR ICE JAMS THIS WEEK.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KC
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC
HYDROLOGY...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
416 AM EDT WED MAR 14 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 413 AM EDT WED MAR 14 2012
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW UPR RDG OVER MN
BTWN CLOSED LO SHIFTING SEWD THRU QUEBEC AND A MEAN TROF ALONG THE W
COAST. WITH CWA UNDER THE CONFLUENT NW FLOW ALF/12HR H3 RISES AOA
100M...ASSOCIATED SFC HI PRES RDG IS BRINGING TRANQUIL WX/MOCLR
SKIES. AIRMASS IN PLACE IS ALSO RELATIVELY DRY PER LOCAL 00Z
RAOBS...SO SFC TEMPS HAVE FALLEN AOB 32 AT MANY INTERIOR COLD
LOCATIONS WITH THE MOCLR SKIES/LGT WINDS. BUT A MUCH WARMER AIRMASS
IS EVIDENT JUST TO THE W UNDER THE STRONG SLY FLOW BTWN THE SFC HI
PRES RDG OVER THE GRT LKS AND LOWER PRES IN THE HI PLAINS ASSOCIATED
WITH STRONG SHRTWV LIFTING NEWD THRU SW CAN TO THE E OF TROF ALONG
THE W COAST. 00Z H85 TEMPS REACHED AOA 15C ALL THE WAY UP TO GLASGOW
MONTANA AND BISMARCK...AND SFC HI TEMPS WERE UP TO 75 IN EASTERN
MONTANA AND WRN NDAKOTA UNDER THIS WARM SURGE. PIERRE SDAKOTA
REPORTED A MAX TEMP OF 82. THE AIRMASS IN THE CENTRAL AND NRN PLAINS
IS VERY DRY PER 00Z PWAT OF 0.14/0.17 AT RAPID CITY SDAKOTA/NORTH
PLATTE NEBRASKA. BUT A SURGE OF HIER SFC DWPTS IS NOTED MOVING N FM
THE SRN PLAINS...WITH SFC DWPTS AT 03Z UP TO 55 AT KANSAS CITY UNDER
THE STRONG S WINDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EDT WED MAR 14 2012
TODAY...AS SFC HI PRES SHIFTS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND SFC
TROF/COLD FNT ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP SHRTWV LIFTING FM SW CAN TOWARD
HUDSON BAY MOVES INTO WRN LK SUP IN THE AFTN...STRONGER SSW FLOW
UNDER SHARPER PRES GRADIENT BTWN THESE FEATURES IS FCST TO LIFT H85
TEMPS UP TO 12-14C THIS AFTN. ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE MORE COPIOUS LLVL
MSTR IS FCST TO PUSH IN THIS AFTN...THE ARRIVAL OF THIS MSTR WL
COINCIDE WITH PEAK HEATING TIME...SO THERE SHOULD NOT BE MUCH IN THE
WAY OF CLD COVER AHEAD OF THE APRCHG TROF/FNT. WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE AND MIXING TO H85 ON NAM FCST SDNGS...EXPECT TEMPS OVER THE
INTERIOR W TO REACH 70 TO 75. AREAS OVER THE E HALF WL BE COOLER
DOWNWIND OF THE MODIFYING INFLUENCE OF LK MI. DAILY RECORD HI TEMPS
OF 62 AT IWD...56 AT CMX...67 AT IMT...AND 60 AT THE MQT NWS OFFICE
ARE IN SERIOUS JEOPARDY. THE ARRIVAL OF THE SFC COLD FNT LATE OVER
THE W WL BRING SOME MORE CLDS/COOLER TEMPS TOWARD EVNG...BUT THE
OVERALL AIRMASS WL BE TOO DRY WITH PERSISTENT INVRN H75-8 TO SUPPORT
ANY PCPN CONSIDERING THE ABSENCE OF H5 FALLS WITH PASSAGE OF THE
MAIN DYNAMICS WELL TO THE N CLOSER TO SHRTWV TRACK. SO IGNORED THE
LGT QPF GENERATED BY THE 00Z GFS.
TNGT...AS MAIN SHRTWV TO THE N MOVES ACRS HUDSON BAY...SFC COOL FNT
WL DRIFT W-E ACRS THE CWA AND INTO NRN LWR MI BY 12Z THU. MODELS...
ESPECIALLY THE GFS...GENERATE SPOTTY QPF OVER MAINLY THE SE ZNS IN
THE EVNG JUST AHEAD OF THE TROF. SINCE THE INCOMING LLVL MSTR DOES
GET DEEPER AND UP TO H85-8 PER NAM FCST SDNGS...OPTED TO MAINTAIN
SCHC POPS FM ROUGHLY MNM TO ERY THRU ABOUT 06Z...WHEN DRYING WITH A
WSHFT TO THE W BEHIND THE FROPA WL ADVECT DRIER AIR EWD. OPTED TO
ADD MENTION OF ELEVATED TS GIVEN STEEP MID LVL LAPSE RATES ABV LLVL
MOISTENING. PERSISTENCE OF INVRN H8-75 IN ABSENCE OF SGNFT MID LVL
DYNAMICS WL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR ANY SHRA/TS. ALTHOUGH THERE
WL BE DRYING ALF AS HI PRES MOVES ACRS NW LK SUP UNDER WSW FLOW
ALF... VARIOUS GUIDANCE SHOWS MORE LLVL MSTR PERSISTING EVEN AFT THE
FROPA. SO TENDED TO MAINTAIN MORE CLD COVER THRU THE NGT WHERE THE
NW VEERING N WIND WL UPSLOPE.
THU...WITH PERSISTENT WSW FLOW ALF BTWN MEAN UPR RDG OVER THE SE
CONUS AND TROFFING OUT W...SFC HI PRES IS PROGGED TO DRIFT INTO
QUEBEC...LEAVING A SFC RDG OVER THE UPR LKS. ALTHOUGH DRY AIR IN THE
MID LVLS WL RESULT IN A PCPN-FREE DAY...VARIOUS MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW LINGERING LLVL MSTR WITH SHALLOW COOL AIR INFUSION MAINTAINING
FAIRLY SHARP SFC-BASED INVRN. TRICKY TEMPS FCST FOR THU CONSIDERING
DIFFERENCES IN LLVL MSTR SHOWN BY THE VARIOUS MODELS AND POTENTIAL
FOR MORE PERSISTENT ST/SC. TENDED COOLEST NEAR THE LK SHORES WITH
LGT NE FLOW TENDING TO VEER E AND GREATER HEATING INLAND SUPPORTING
LK BREEZE COOLING. ALTHOUGH TEMPS WL BE CONSIDERABLY COOLER THAN
TDAY AND PROBABLY CLOSER TO THE LOWER NAM GUIDANCE GIVEN RATHER HI
STABILITY SHOWN ON FCST SDNGS/POTENTIAL LO CLDS...READINGS WL STILL
BE WELL ABV NORMAL FOR THE IDES OF MARCH.
THU NGT...MAJORITY OF MODELS SHOW WEAK SHRTWV MOVING IN FM THE
WSW...CAUSING LGT LLVL FLOW TO VEER MORE TO THE S. WHILE THIS WSHFT
MIGHT LIMIT UPSLOPE CLD OFF LK SUP...CONCERN SOME ST/SC COULD DRIFT
IN FM LK MI/BAY OF GREEN BAY. SINCE THE FLOW WL BE LGT AND THE MID
LVLS DRY...ALSO MAINTAINED PATCHY FOG IN THE FCST OVER THE E
DOWNWIND OF LK MI.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EDT WED MAR 14 2012
WEAK DISTURBANCE THAT MOVED JUST N OF LK SUPERIOR ON THURS NIGHT
WILL SHIFT E OF THE AREA ON FRI...ALLOWING THE UPPER RIDGE TO
RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON FRI AND FRI NIGHT.
FRI... MOSTLY SUNNY DUE TO DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE UPPER
RIDGE AND EXITING SFC HIGH. MIX TO H900 WOULD YIELD TEMPS IN THE
LOW-MID 60S AWAY FROM LK MI INFLUENCES. MODEL CONSENSUS IS A LIGHT
SE BREEZE...WHICH COULD PRODUCE ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA AND LEADS TO THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT LK BREEZES OVER THE W
AND NCTNRL. LATEST NAM HAS TRENDED TOWARDS STRONGER WINDS AS IT
TRIES TO MIX INTO THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT...WHICH WOULD LIMIT LK
BREEZE POTENTIAL.
FRI NIGHT...SRLY FLOW INCREASES AS THE AREA IS BETWEEN SFC HIGH OVER
SW QUEBEC AND LOW NEAR LK WINNIPEG. THIS TRIES TO PULL ADDITIONAL
LLVL MOISTURE OVER THE AREA. GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH
THIS...WHICH ATTEMPTS TO SOCK THE AREA IN WITH LOW CLOUDS BELOW THE
INVERSION AROUND H850-800. NAM A LITTLE SLOWER...BUT EVENTUALLY
SHOWS A SIMILAR SITUATION. NOT ENTIRELY CONFIDENT THIS WILL
OCCUR...BUT WILL TREND TOWARDS A MORE CLOUDY SOLN. IF THIS LLVL
MOISTURE DOES OCCUR...EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP OVER LK MI AND MOVE INTO
THE ERN CWA. HAVE ADDED A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG NEAR/OVER LK MI AND
ADDED IT OVER NRN LK SUPERIOR OVERNIGHT.
MODELS STILL OUTPUTTING PCPN...LIKELY LIGHT DRIZZLE...IN ONLY A 1 TO
MAYBE 2KFT AREA OF MOISTURE/CLOUDS NEAR THE SFC. REALLY NOT BUYING
THAT SITUATION...SO WILL CAP POPS JUST BELOW SLIGHT CHANCES.
DAYS 4 THROUGH 7 /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ANOMALOUS H500 HEIGHTS...AROUND 2-3 STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL FOR
MID-LATE MARCH WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
OTHER THAN A COUPLE WEAK IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE SWRLY FLOW
ALOFT...EXPECT A FAIRLY WARM/DRY PERIOD TO CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR A WEAK WAVE LOOKS TO BE ON SAT AFTN INTO SUN
MORN. MODELS SHOWING SOME MOISTURE TO WORK WITH ABOVE H850 AND
ELEVATED INSTABILITY WOULD SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER IF ANY
SHOWERS DEVELOP WITH THE WEAK SHORTWAVE. OTHERWISE...DON/T SEE ANY
SIGNIFICANT WAVES OR FORCING AFFECTING THE AREA.
MAIN FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED IS LLVL MOISTURE AND TEMPS. 00Z GFS
CONTINUES TO SHOW ABUNDANT LLVL MOISTURE BELOW THE H850 INVERSION
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. 12Z ECMWF...EVEN WITH THE LIMITED LOWER
LEVELS AVAILABLE DOESN/T SHOW THAT EXTENT OF LLVL MOISTURE. GEM DOES
HINT AT IT AND WONDERING IF IT WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN WITH MORE
CLOUDS AT NIGHT AND THEN ATTEMPT TO MIX OUT DURING THE DAY. IT IS
ONE OF THOSE TOUGH SITUATIONS...DUE TO NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES AND
THE DECENT CAP...WHICH COULD LEAD TO LOW CLOUDS BECOMING TRAPPED
BELOW THE INVERSION AND STRUGGLING TO BREAK OUT. DON/T HAVE ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE ONE WAY OR ANOTHER TO BUCK THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND WILL
LEAVE IT AS IS. MODELS TRYING TO DROP A HUNDREDTH OF QPF OVER THE
GREAT LKS...WHICH IS LARGELY A FUNCTION OF THE LLVL MOISTURE AND
RESULTANT FOG. ADDED PATCHY FOG NEAR LK MI FOR SAT/SUN AND ALSO LK
SUPERIOR JUST OFF SHORE FROM UPPER MI WITH THE SSE FLOW. MAY NEED TO
EXTEND IT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD IF LLVL MOISTURE PANS
OUT...WHICH WOULD PROBABLY PRODUCE SOME DENSE PERIODS.
TEMPS REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AWAY FROM THE SOUTHERLY WINDS OF LK
MI. LOW CLOUDS/FOG COULD CAUSE ISSUES WITH THESE TEMPS AND ONLY
CHANGES MADE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS WAS TO WARM UP DOWNSLOPE AREAS
NEAR LK SUPERIOR.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 110 AM EDT WED MAR 14 2012
DRY AIRMASS WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA AS VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THE FCST PERIOD. AS HIGH PRES RIDGE
SHIFTS E OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT...WINDS WILL INCREASE ABOVE NOCTURNAL
INVERSION...RESULTING IN LLWS AT KIWD AND KCMX.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EDT WED MAR 14 2012
EXPECT WINDS TO BE GENERALLY UNDER 25 KTS INTO THIS WEEKEND AS A
RELATIVELY WEAK PRES GRADIENT DOMINATES. ALTHOUGH A SHARPER PRES
GRADIENT/STRONGER S FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND...THE
UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL ALSO RESULT IN
PERSISTENT MARINE LAYER/STRONG STABILITY OVER THE LAKE...HELPING TO
KEEP SURFACE WINDS ON THE LIGHTER SIDE. AT SOME POINT...FOG MAY
BECOME AN ISSUE...BUT EXPECTED DRY WEATHER THRU THE WEEKEND WILL
LIMIT THIS POTENTIAL.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 413 AM EDT WED MAR 14 2012
WARM TEMPERATURES OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...ALONG WITH RAIN OF
0.10 TO MORE THAN 0.5 INCH ON MON HAS LED TO INCREASED SNOWMELT/
RUNOFF. THIS RUNOFF HAS PRODUCED SOME RISE IN LEVELS OF RIVERS IN
UPR MI OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. TEMPS HAVE FALLEN BLO 32 AT
MANY SPOTS OVER THE CWA EARLY THIS MRNG...BRINGING A TEMPORARY
RESPITE TO THE STEADY MELTING.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO MELT THE
SNOW PACK AND LEAD TO FURTHER INCREASES IN RIVER AND STREAM LEVELS.
DESPITE THE BREAK EARLY THIS MRNG...A PERIOD OF RAPID MELTING WILL
OCCUR TODAY...AS TEMPERATURES RISE AOA 70 DEGREES OVER THE WEST AND
DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE 40S LATER IN THE DAY. ALTHOUGH A COOLER
AIRMASS WILL ARRIVE ON THU...EXPECT SOME OF THE RIVERS ACROSS THE
AREA TO EXCEED THEIR BANKS BY THE END OF THIS WEEK. PERSONS LIVING
NEAR RIVERS AND STREAMS SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST RIVER CONDITIONS
AND USE CAUTION IF WALKING ALONG RIVER BANKS...ESPECIALLY THE
CHOCOLAY RIVER...TRAP ROCK RIVER...AND THE STURGEON RIVER IN WESTERN
UPPER MICHIGAN.
THERE WAS AN APPARENT ICE JAM ON THE ONTONAGON RIVER NEAR ROCKLAND
MON EVENING. THIS CAUSED THE RIVER LEVELS TO RISE 4FT BEFORE IT
BROKE FREE. WILL NEED TO MONITOR CONDITIONS ALONG THE ONTONAGON RIVER
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AS THE NUMEROUS BENDS COULD CAUSE THE ICE
TO FORM ANOTHER JAM. IN ADDITION...ICE WAS REPORTED ON THE FORD RIVER
AT HYDE AND THE MOUTH AT LK MI. DEPENDING ON THE BREAKUP OF THE
ICE...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR ICE JAMS THIS WEEK. &&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KC
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...KC
HYDROLOGY...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
357 AM EDT WED MAR 14 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT WED MAR 14 2012
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW UPR RDG OVER MN
BTWN CLOSED LO SHIFTING SEWD THRU QUEBEC AND A MEAN TROF ALONG THE W
COAST. WITH CWA UNDER THE CONFLUENT NW FLOW ALF/12HR H3 RISES AOA
100M...ASSOCIATED SFC HI PRES RDG IS BRINGING TRANQUIL WX/MOCLR
SKIES. AIRMASS IN PLACE IS ALSO RELATIVELY DRY PER LOCAL 00Z
RAOBS...SO SFC TEMPS HAVE FALLEN AOB 32 AT MANY INTERIOR COLD
LOCATIONS WITH THE MOCLR SKIES/LGT WINDS. BUT A MUCH WARMER AIRMASS
IS EVIDENT JUST TO THE W UNDER THE STRONG SLY FLOW BTWN THE SFC HI
PRES RDG OVER THE GRT LKS AND LOWER PRES IN THE HI PLAINS ASSOCIATED
WITH STRONG SHRTWV LIFTING NEWD THRU SW CAN TO THE E OF TROF ALONG
THE W COAST. 00Z H85 TEMPS REACHED AOA 15C ALL THE WAY UP TO GLASGOW
MONTANA AND BISMARCK...AND SFC HI TEMPS WERE UP TO 75 IN EASTERN
MONTANA AND WRN NDAKOTA UNDER THIS WARM SURGE. PIERRE SDAKOTA
REPORTED A MAX TEMP OF 82. THE AIRMASS IN THE CENTRAL AND NRN PLAINS
IS VERY DRY PER 00Z PWAT OF 0.14/0.17 AT RAPID CITY SDAKOTA/NORTH
PLATTE NEBRASKA. BUT A SURGE OF HIER SFC DWPTS IS NOTED MOVING N FM
THE SRN PLAINS...WITH SFC DWPTS AT 03Z UP TO 55 AT KANSAS CITY UNDER
THE STRONG S WINDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT
WED MAR 14 2012
TODAY...AS SFC HI PRES SHIFTS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND SFC
TROF/COLD FNT ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP SHRTWV LIFTING FM SW CAN TOWARD
HUDSON BAY MOVES INTO WRN LK SUP IN THE AFTN...STRONGER SSW FLOW
UNDER SHARPER PRES GRADIENT BTWN THESE FEATURES IS FCST TO LIFT H85
TEMPS UP TO 12-14C THIS AFTN. ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE MORE COPIOUS LLVL
MSTR IS FCST TO PUSH IN THIS AFTN...THE ARRIVAL OF THIS MSTR WL
COINCIDE WITH PEAK HEATING TIME...SO THERE SHOULD NOT BE MUCH IN THE
WAY OF CLD COVER AHEAD OF THE APRCHG TROF/FNT. WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE AND MIXING TO H85 ON NAM FCST SDNGS...EXPECT TEMPS OVER THE
INTERIOR W TO REACH 70 TO 75. AREAS OVER THE E HALF WL BE COOLER
DOWNWIND OF THE MODIFYING INFLUENCE OF LK MI. DAILY RECORD HI TEMPS
OF 62 AT IWD...56 AT CMX...67 AT IMT...AND 60 AT THE MQT NWS OFFICE
ARE IN SERIOUS JEOPARDY. THE ARRIVAL OF THE SFC COLD FNT LATE OVER
THE W WL BRING SOME MORE CLDS/COOLER TEMPS TOWARD EVNG...BUT THE
OVERALL AIRMASS WL BE TOO DRY WITH PERSISTENT INVRN H75-8 TO SUPPORT
ANY PCPN CONSIDERING THE ABSENCE OF H5 FALLS WITH PASSAGE OF THE
MAIN DYNAMICS WELL TO THE N CLOSER TO SHRTWV TRACK. SO IGNORED THE
LGT QPF GENERATED BY THE 00Z GFS.
TNGT...AS MAIN SHRTWV TO THE N MOVES ACRS HUDSON BAY...SFC COOL FNT
WL DRIFT W-E ACRS THE CWA AND INTO NRN LWR MI BY 12Z THU. MODELS...
ESPECIALLY THE GFS...GENERATE SPOTTY QPF OVER MAINLY THE SE ZNS IN
THE EVNG JUST AHEAD OF THE TROF. SINCE THE INCOMING LLVL MSTR DOES
GET DEEPER AND UP TO H85-8 PER NAM FCST SDNGS...OPTED TO MAINTAIN
SCHC POPS FM ROUGHLY MNM TO ERY THRU ABOUT 06Z...WHEN DRYING WITH A
WSHFT TO THE W BEHIND THE FROPA WL ADVECT DRIER AIR EWD. OPTED TO
ADD MENTION OF ELEVATED TS GIVEN STEEP MID LVL LAPSE RATES ABV LLVL
MOISTENING. PERSISTENCE OF INVRN H8-75 IN ABSENCE OF SGNFT MID LVL
DYNAMICS WL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR ANY SHRA/TS. ALTHOUGH THERE
WL BE DRYING ALF AS HI PRES MOVES ACRS NW LK SUP UNDER WSW FLOW
ALF... VARIOUS GUIDANCE SHOWS MORE LLVL MSTR PERSISTING EVEN AFT THE
FROPA. SO TENDED TO MAINTAIN MORE CLD COVER THRU THE NGT WHERE THE
NW VEERING N WIND WL UPSLOPE.
THU...WITH PERSISTENT WSW FLOW ALF BTWN MEAN UPR RDG OVER THE SE
CONUS AND TROFFING OUT W...SFC HI PRES IS PROGGED TO DRIFT INTO
QUEBEC...LEAVING A SFC RDG OVER THE UPR LKS. ALTHOUGH DRY AIR IN THE
MID LVLS WL RESULT IN A PCPN-FREE DAY...VARIOUS MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW LINGERING LLVL MSTR WITH SHALLOW COOL AIR INFUSION MAINTAINING
FAIRLY SHARP SFC-BASED INVRN. TRICKY TEMPS FCST FOR THU CONSIDERING
DIFFERENCES IN LLVL MSTR SHOWN BY THE VARIOUS MODELS AND POTENTIAL
FOR MORE PERSISTENT ST/SC. TENDED COOLEST NEAR THE LK SHORES WITH
LGT NE FLOW TENDING TO VEER E AND GREATER HEATING INLAND SUPPORTING
LK BREEZE COOLING. ALTHOUGH TEMPS WL BE CONSIDERABLY COOLER THAN
TDAY AND PROBABLY CLOSER TO THE LOWER NAM GUIDANCE GIVEN RATHER HI
STABILITY SHOWN ON FCST SDNGS/POTENTIAL LO CLDS...READINGS WL STILL
BE WELL ABV NORMAL FOR THE IDES OF MARCH.
THU NGT...MAJORITY OF MODELS SHOW WEAK SHRTWV MOVING IN FM THE
WSW...CAUSING LGT LLVL FLOW TO VEER MORE TO THE S. WHILE THIS WSHFT
MIGHT LIMIT UPSLOPE CLD OFF LK SUP...CONCERN SOME ST/SC COULD DRIFT
IN FM LK MI/BAY OF GREEN BAY. SINCE THE FLOW WL BE LGT AND THE MID
LVLS DRY...ALSO MAINTAINED PATCHY FOG IN THE FCST OVER THE E
DOWNWIND OF LK MI.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT WED MAR 14 2012
WEAK DISTURBANCE THAT MOVED JUST N OF LK SUPERIOR ON THURS NIGHT
WILL SHIFT E OF THE AREA ON FRI...ALLOWING THE UPPER RIDGE TO
RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON FRI AND FRI NIGHT.
FRI... MOSTLY SUNNY DUE TO DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE UPPER
RIDGE AND EXITING SFC HIGH. MIX TO H900 WOULD YIELD TEMPS IN THE
LOW-MID 60S AWAY FROM LK MI INFLUENCES. MODEL CONSENSUS IS A LIGHT
SE BREEZE...WHICH COULD PRODUCE ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA AND LEADS TO THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT LK BREEZES OVER THE W
AND NCTNRL. LATEST NAM HAS TRENDED TOWARDS STRONGER WINDS AS IT
TRIES TO MIX INTO THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT...WHICH WOULD LIMIT LK
BREEZE POTENTIAL.
FRI NIGHT...SRLY FLOW INCREASES AS THE AREA IS BETWEEN SFC HIGH OVER
SW QUEBEC AND LOW NEAR LK WINNIPEG. THIS TRIES TO PULL ADDITIONAL
LLVL MOISTURE OVER THE AREA. GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH
THIS...WHICH ATTEMPTS TO SOCK THE AREA IN WITH LOW CLOUDS BELOW THE
INVERSION AROUND H850-800. NAM A LITTLE SLOWER...BUT EVENTUALLY
SHOWS A SIMILAR SITUATION. NOT ENTIRELY CONFIDENT THIS WILL
OCCUR...BUT WILL TREND TOWARDS A MORE CLOUDY SOLN. IF THIS LLVL
MOISTURE DOES OCCUR...EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP OVER LK MI AND MOVE INTO
THE ERN CWA. HAVE ADDED A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG NEAR/OVER LK MI AND
ADDED IT OVER NRN LK SUPERIOR OVERNIGHT.
MODELS STILL OUTPUTTING PCPN...LIKELY LIGHT DRIZZLE...IN ONLY A 1 TO
MAYBE 2KFT AREA OF MOISTURE/CLOUDS NEAR THE SFC. REALLY NOT BUYING
THAT SITUATION...SO WILL CAP POPS JUST BELOW SLIGHT CHANCES.
DAYS 4 THROUGH 7 /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ANOMALOUS H500 HEIGHTS...AROUND 2-3 STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL FOR
MID-LATE MARCH WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
OTHER THAN A COUPLE WEAK IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE SWRLY FLOW
ALOFT...EXPECT A FAIRLY WARM/DRY PERIOD TO CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR A WEAK WAVE LOOKS TO BE ON SAT AFTN INTO SUN
MORN. MODELS SHOWING SOME MOISTURE TO WORK WITH ABOVE H850 AND
ELEVATED INSTABILITY WOULD SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER IF ANY
SHOWERS DEVELOP WITH THE WEAK SHORTWAVE. OTHERWISE...DON/T SEE ANY
SIGNIFICANT WAVES OR FORCING AFFECTING THE AREA.
MAIN FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED IS LLVL MOISTURE AND TEMPS. 00Z GFS
CONTINUES TO SHOW ABUNDANT LLVL MOISTURE BELOW THE H850 INVERSION
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. 12Z ECMWF...EVEN WITH THE LIMITED LOWER
LEVELS AVAILABLE DOESN/T SHOW THAT EXTENT OF LLVL MOISTURE. GEM DOES
HINT AT IT AND WONDERING IF IT WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN WITH MORE
CLOUDS AT NIGHT AND THEN ATTEMPT TO MIX OUT DURING THE DAY. IT IS
ONE OF THOSE TOUGH SITUATIONS...DUE TO NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES AND
THE DECENT CAP...WHICH COULD LEAD TO LOW CLOUDS BECOMING TRAPPED
BELOW THE INVERSION AND STRUGGLING TO BREAK OUT. DON/T HAVE ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE ONE WAY OR ANOTHER TO BUCK THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND WILL
LEAVE IT AS IS. MODELS TRYING TO DROP A HUNDREDTH OF QPF OVER THE
GREAT LKS...WHICH IS LARGELY A FUNCTION OF THE LLVL MOISTURE AND
RESULTANT FOG. ADDED PATCHY FOG NEAR LK MI FOR SAT/SUN AND ALSO LK
SUPERIOR JUST OFF SHORE FROM UPPER MI WITH THE SSE FLOW. MAY NEED TO
EXTEND IT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD IF LLVL MOISTURE PANS
OUT...WHICH WOULD PROBABLY PRODUCE SOME DENSE PERIODS.
TEMPS REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AWAY FROM THE SOUTHERLY WINDS OF LK
MI. LOW CLOUDS/FOG COULD CAUSE ISSUES WITH THESE TEMPS AND ONLY
CHANGES MADE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS WAS TO WARM UP DOWNSLOPE AREAS
NEAR LK SUPERIOR.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 110 AM EDT WED MAR 14 2012
DRY AIRMASS WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA AS VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THE FCST PERIOD. AS HIGH PRES RIDGE
SHIFTS E OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT...WINDS WILL INCREASE ABOVE NOCTURNAL
INVERSION...RESULTING IN LLWS AT KIWD AND KCMX.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT WED MAR 14 2012
EXPECT WINDS TO BE GENERALLY UNDER 25 KTS INTO THIS WEEKEND AS A
RELATIVELY WEAK PRES GRADIENT DOMINATES. ALTHOUGH A SHARPER PRES
GRADIENT/STRONGER S FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND...THE
UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL ALSO RESULT IN
PERSISTENT MARINE LAYER/STRONG STABILITY OVER THE LAKE...HELPING TO
KEEP SURFACE WINDS ON THE LIGHTER SIDE. AT SOME POINT...FOG MAY
BECOME AN ISSUE...BUT EXPECTED DRY WEATHER THRU THE WEEKEND WILL
LIMIT THIS POTENTIAL.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KC
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ST LOUIS MO
617 PM CDT THU MAR 15 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 610 PM CDT THU MAR 15 2012
ADJUSTED THE GRIDS TO BETTER REFLECT ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS
THE AREA.
KANOFSKY
&&
.SHORT TERM...
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT THU MAR 15 2012
(TONIGHT)
MAIN CONVECTIVE THREAT SHOULD BE THIS EVENING...AND PRIMARILY OVER
S SECTIONS OF THE CWA...ALONG AND AHEAD OF BLOSSOMING CONVECTION
ACROSS THE OZARKS. MEANWHILE...HAVE CONTINUED CHANCE POPS OVER N
SECTIONS OF THE FA. NOT CERTAIN THAT MUCH PRECIP WILL BE ABLE TO
DEVELOP THAT FAR N...BUT INSTABILITY...LOW CIN...AND UPSTREAM
SHORTWAVE WARRANTS CONTINUING MENTION OF TSRA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REMAIN UNSEASONABLY MILD...AND RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
TRUETT
&&
.LONG TERM...
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT THU MAR 15 2012
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN MDL SOLNS FROM YESTERDAY. MDLS STILL SUGGEST
REGION REMAINS IN A SIMILAR AIRMASS INTO THE WEEKEND. MDLS PROG H85
TEMPS TO REMAIN IN THE 12C TO 14C RANGE. SCT TSRA DURING THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AND AGAIN JUST BEFORE AND AFTER SUNRISE.
HAVE THEREFORE KEPT PERSISTENCE FORECAST GOING INTO SUN WITH ONLY
MINOR TWEAKS FROM DAY TO DAY. SAT NIGHT DOES HAVE SOME UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING TEMPS/POPS. MDLS CONTINUE TO DEPICT MCS/MCV ON SAT INTO
SAT NIGHT MOVING NEWD INTO/NEAR THE CWA. MDLS AGREE ON THE
OCCURRENCE OF THIS FEATURE. HOWEVER...TIMING AND TRACK DIFFER. TEMPS
ON SAT AND POSSIBLY INTO SUN WILL GREATLY DEPEND ON WHICH SOLN
VERIFIES.
LIKEWISE...THE GOING MAX TEMPS ARE BASED ON EXPECTING ISOD TO SCT
TSRA...DEPENDING ON LOCATION IN THE CWA. BELIEVE BEST CHANCES FOR
MULTICELL CLUSTERS WILL BE OUTSIDE OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...IF THE
LOCATION CHANGES...TEMPS WILL HAVE TO BE ALTERED IN FUTURE UPDATES
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
AS FOR SVR CHANCES...WITH SAME THINKING AS MENTIONED ABOVE...AN ISOD
SVR TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE WEEKEND. MDLS PROG MLCAPE AROUND
2000 J/KG WITH STEEP MID LVL LAPSE RATES. DEEP LAYER SHEER WILL BE
DIMINISHED...LIMITING ORGANIZED THREAT.
FOR THE EXTD...PERSISTENCE TRENDS CONTINUE EARLY INTO THE PERIOD.
MDLS CONTINUE TO DEPICT LEE CYCLOGENESIS ON DEEP TROF CROSSING THE
ROCKIES MON INTO TUES. THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE CWA AS
EARLY AS MON AND A NUMBER OF S/WS EJECT INTO THE PLAINS INCREASING
THE CHANCE OF TSRA ACROSS THE AREA.
MDLS AGREE WITH A CUT OFF LOW DEVELOPING AND EVENTUALLY IMPACTING
THE CWA. HOWEVER...MDLS DISAGREE REGARDING TIMING. FOR NOW...HAVE
CONTINUED LOWER END CHANCE POPS AND WILL INCREASE AS CONFIDENCE
INCREASES.
HAVE CONTINUED WARM TREND THRU THE EXTD PERIOD...BUT TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE COOLER WED INTO THURS AS CUT OFF LOW APPROACHES AND
SPREADS PRECIP/CLOUDS INTO THE REGION.
TILLY
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT THU MAR 15 2012
THIS MORNINGS CONVECTIVE CLUSTER PUSHING INTO S IL ATTM...SO
FORECAST TRENDS FOR THIS AFTERNOON DEAL WITH REDEVELOPMENT IN THE
WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM. AMS IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH LITTLE
CIN...SO EXPECT HIT AND MISS CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON. ATTM
NOT CERTAIN IF AND/OR WHERE THE MAIN COVERAGE OF THIS AFTERNOONS
CONVECTION WILL BE...ALTHOUGH HRRR DATA HAS BEEN HINTING THAT THE
SOMEWHAT BETTER FOCUS FOR STORMS WILL BE FROM THE EASTERN OZARKS
THROUGH THE STL AREA. FOR NOW HAVE HIGHLIGHTED TS THREAT WITH CB
CLOUD GROUP ALG AND S OF I-70 CORRIDOR. HAVE ALSO KEPT CB GROUP
GOING INTO THE EVENING...AS THERE SEEMS TO BE SOME MODEL CONSENSUS
THAT SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER OK WILL KEEP SOME THREAT GOING PAST
MAX HEATING. FINALLY...GIVEN PERSISTENT S FLOW AND CONDITIONS OVER
THE PLAINS AROUND DAYBREAK THIS MORNING...HAVE INTRODUCED A BIT OF
FOG AND STRATUS FOR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...PRIMARILY IN UIN AND
COU.
SPECIFICS FOR KSTL...TAF ATTEMPTS TO REFLECT AN AMS-TYPE TSRA
THREAT WITH A BKN CU FIELD...VCSH...AND CB CLOUD GROUP...AND WILL
REFINE THIS IF/WHEN CONVECTIVE TRENDS BECOME A BIT BETTER DEFINED.
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...HAVE ALSO HELD ONTO CB CLOUD GROUP PAST MAX
HEATING AND THROUGHOUT THE EVENING DUE TO UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE.
TRUETT
&&
.CLIMATE...
HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH MAXIMUM AND HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
FOR KSTL AND KCOU FOR THURSDAY 03/15 AND FRIDAY 03/16.
KSTL
DAY DATE HI MAX YEAR HI MIN YEAR
THU 03/15 80F 1945 60F 1919
FRI 03/16 86F 1945 57F 1919
KCOU
DAY DATE HI MAX YEAR HI MIN YEAR
THU 03/15 79F 1914 62F 1919
FRI 03/16 87F 1945 55F 1945
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ST LOUIS 63 85 65 85 / 60 30 20 40
QUINCY 60 83 59 83 / 30 20 20 40
COLUMBIA 61 82 60 82 / 30 20 20 50
JEFFERSON CITY 61 82 63 82 / 40 20 20 50
SALEM 61 80 62 80 / 60 40 30 40
FARMINGTON 61 81 62 81 / 60 40 30 40
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
619 PM CDT THU MAR 15 2012
.AVIATION...00Z KGRI TAF. CONCERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE CHANCE OF
STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. SURFACE TROUGH HAS MOVED VERY
LITTLE TODAY FROM SW TO NE KANSAS WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING
A BIT FURTHER NORTH AS COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO WITH DEWPOINT JUMP
OF TEN DEGREES TO 54 AT KGRI IN THE PAST HOUR. WILL FOLLOW
PREVIOUS FORECASTERS LEAD AND GO WITH PERSISTENCE AS FOG/STRATUS
PREVALENT EARLY THIS MORNING JUST SOUTHEAST OF KGRI. BIGGEST
QUESTION IS WILL DEVELOPMENT OCCUR CLOSE TO OR ACROSS THE
TERMINAL. WILL OPT ON PESSIMISTIC SIDE AND BRING FOG/STRATUS IN
AROUND 09Z AND CONTINUE IT UNTIL MID MORNING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CDT THU MAR 15 2012/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. MAIN FOCUS IS ON POTENTIAL
FOR FOG/STRATUS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. A FAIRLY LARGE AREA OF
STRATUS ENCOMPASSED THE SOUTHEAST THIRD OF OUR CWA THIS MORNING AND
THE LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO ERODE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. YORK
VSBY DROPPED TO A QUARTER MILE OR LESS FOR THE SECOND DAY IN A ROW
AND THE LOW VSBY LINGERED TO AROUND 15Z. MOISTURE AXIS AROUND
MIDDAY WAS LOCATED FROM KOLU TO KHSI TO KHLC WITH DPS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THIS LINE IN THE 50S. MODELS INDICATE MOISTURE AXIS WILL
EXPAND FARTHER NORTH AND WEST TONIGHT AS WINDS TRANSITION SOUTHERLY
AND REMAIN LIGHT. EXPECT STRATUS TO REDEVELOP ACROSS A LARGER
AREA...AND ENCOMPASS A GOOD PORTION OF OUR CWA. FOG/REDUCED VSBYS
HAVE BEEN A FAIRLY COMMON THEME IN THIS REGIME AND PLAN TO GO WITH
PERSISTENCE IN THIS PATTERN. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
VSBY RESTRICTIONS FRIDAY MORNING BASED ON RUC13 VSBYS PROGS AND
MODEL NUMERICAL GUIDANCE. MODELS DO INDICATE A LITTLE MORE IN THE
WAY OF MIXING OVER THE STRATUS...AND CONTEMPLATED ADDING IN SOME
DRIZZLE MENTION...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN DRIZZLE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH
ATTM. IN HIGHER MOISTURE TONIGHT...GENERALLY LOOKING AT MILDER LOWS
RANGING FM NEAR 40 ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF STRATUS...TO LOW/MID 50S
IN THE SOUTHEAST CWA WHERE DPS ARE HIGHER.
LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO ERODE AROUND MID DAY ON FRIDAY AND
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON. IN
BETTER MIXING CONDITIONS...TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 70S TO THE
LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS.
LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
BEGINNING THE LONG TERM...MUCH OF THE CONUS REMAINS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
BEGINS TO PUSH EAST JUST OFF THE WEST COAST. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
CONTINUES TO DEEPEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND...PUSHING THE TROUGH AXIS
ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BY SUNDAY. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND MONTANA BY
SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL HELP INCREASE A PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND THUS INCREASING SOUTH WINDS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TO NEAR WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO SURGE NORTHWARD FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO. WHILE THE EC KEEPS MOISTURE WELL TO THE SOUTH
ON SUNDAY...THE GFS BRINGS THE MOISTURE MUCH FARTHER NORTH MAINLY
ACROSS FAR EASTERN NEBRASKA AND IOWA. BOTH THE GFS AND THE EC
CONTINUE TO SURGE MOISTURE NORTHWARD ON MONDAY...INCLUDING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA AND KANSAS. BOTH MODELS
ALSO HINT AT THE POSSIBILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND POTENTIALLY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...AS MU CAPES APPROACH 500 TO 1500 J/KG.
THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM PUSHES A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION
TUESDAY AFTERNOON DECREASING HIGH TEMPERATURES BY ABOUT 10 DEGREES
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...BOTH MODELS CONTINUE
TO PUSH ANY MOISTURE FARTHER EAST ACROSS IOWA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO DEEPEN FINALLY
CLOSING OFF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS TEXAS. AT THE SURFACE...THE
EC IS BEGINNING TO LOOK MORE LIKE THE GFS WITH A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SURGING NORTH FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS EASTERN
TEXAS. THIS LOW LOOKS TO SPIN NORTH ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA TEXAS
PANHANDLE WRAPPING AROUND YET ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS
KANSAS AND SOUTHERN NEBRASKA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CMF
LONG TERM...SALTZMAN
AVIATION...EWALD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1243 PM CDT WED MAR 14 2012
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.
A WIND SHIFT IS PUSHING THE LOW CLOUDS AND HIGHEST SURFACE
DEWPOINTS OFF TO THE EAST...SO EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AT 5 TO 15KTS BECOMING
LIGHT NORTHEAST AFTER 00Z AND THEN VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. THE LOW
LEVEL DEWPOINTS WILL RETURN THURSDAY MORNING AND WITH THE WEAK
FLOW...INCLUDED SOME MVFR VSBYS AFTER 12Z THURSDAY WITH FOG. AT
THIS TIME HAVE HELD OFF ON LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT...BUT MAY SEE LOW
CLOUD RE-DEVELOPMENT APPROACHING KLNK AND KOMA THURSDAY AM.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 AM CDT WED MAR 14 2012/
DISCUSSION...
FOCUS CENTERS AROUND RECORD/NEAR RECORD TEMPS AND CHANCES FOR
TSTMS NEXT FEW DAYS.
WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAS MOVED WELL EAST OF THE REGION LEAVING
CENTRAL PLAINS IN WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FOR NEXT FEW DAYS.
SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS SOUTHWEST FLOW
AND WILL COMPLICATE THE FORECAST INTO THE WEEKEND. MODEL AGREEMENT
ON STRENGTH OF THESE SHORTWAVES IS POOR...LEADING TO LOW
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE ON TSTM CHANCES INTO THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN QUITE WARM THIS MORNING AND WILL BE CLOSE TO
RECORD MAX MINS. STRONG MOIST ADVECTION CONTINUES WITH UPSTREAM
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S. PATCHY STRATUS IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP
ACROSS SRN KS AND SO WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON HOW
WIDESPREAD THIS BECOMES THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. 06Z NAM AND
LATEST HRRR ARE TOO QUICK ON SPREADING THIS STRATUS INTO OUR SERN
COUNTIES SO DO HAVE RESERVATIONS ABOUT ADDING CLOUDS TO THE
SOUTHEAST. SURFACE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS ACROSS CNTRL ND
AND INTO NWRN SD AND WILL QUICKLY PUSH SEWD THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS AND ENTER INTO THE NWRN CWA BY LATE MORNING. WE SHOULD BE
ABLE TO MIX OUT AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WITH THE FRONT COMING THRU A
MAJORITY OF THE CWA BY PEAK HEATING. HAVE FOLLOWED MORE CLOSELY TO
PREVIOUS FORECAST HIGHS TODAY RATHER THAN JUMP ONTO NEW MET
GUIDANCE WHICH IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER. WE ARE STILL
FORECASTING NEAR RECORD HIGHS AT LNK AND OMA. DID REMOVE CHANCE OF
TSTMS TONIGHT AS FORCING IS MINIMAL AND INSTABILITY AXIS IS FAR TO
OUR SOUTH. SFC FRONT WASHES OUT OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING.
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW RETURNS ON THURSDAY WITH SFC DEWPOINTS
RETURNING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 IN OUR SOUTH BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. DRY LINE/SFC TROF IS FORECAST TO REMAIN JUST TO OUR WEST
AND AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE REGION...TSTMS
COULD POSSIBLY DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON. SWODY2 HAS LARGE AREA OF
SLIGHT RISK OVER THE CWA. WL CONCENTRATE TSTM CHANCES MAINLY IN THE
SOUTH WHERE RICH THETA-E AIR RESIDES. VEERED LOW LEVEL JET AROUND
30KTS WL AID IN LLVL CONVERGENCE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW ON THE TSTM CHANCES SO THEREFORE HAVE ONLY GONE WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE POP.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND WITH RICH
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE. SHORTWAVE IS
FORECAST TO PASS OVER THE REGION WITH LITTLE CONFIDENCE ONCE
AGAIN ON STRENGTH. WL NOT GET TOO CARRIED AWAY ADDING TSTMS OVER
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA JUST YET BUT DO HAVE LOW POPS IN THE SOUTH
ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS NOSE OF VEERED 50KT LOW LEVEL JET CREEPS INTO
SERN NEB WHERE INSTABILITY REMAINS MODERATE.
IN THE EXTENDED...LARGE WESTERN TROF AXIS IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY
PROGRESS INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY MONDAY AND BECOME SLIGHTLY
NEGATIVELY TILTED BY TUESDAY AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE CNTRL PLAINS.
CHANCE POPS CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF THIS LARGE
TROUGH.
KERN
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
ZAPOTOCNY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1202 PM CDT WED MAR 14 2012
.AVIATION...18Z TAF. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH FM THE
DAKOTAS THIS AFTN AND SHIFT EAST WITH TIME. WINDS WILL BE FROM A
NORTHERLY DIRECTION INITIALLY BUT WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THIS EVENING AND WILL REMAIN VARIABLE INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SKIES
WILL BE CLEAR OR BE LIMITED TO HIGH CLOUDS AT BEST.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 525 AM CDT WED MAR 14 2012/
SHORT TERM...THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE IS
DETERMINING WHEN...AND EVEN TO SOME EXTENT IF...LEGITIMATE
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL TAKE PLACE WITHIN THE CWA AS
THE AIRMASS DESTABILIZES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
09Z OBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS A WEAK TROUGH AXIS CUTTING
ACROSS THE HEART OF THE CWA FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST...TRAILING
WELL SOUTH OF A STRONG...PARENT SURFACE LOW IN CANADA. TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THIS TROUGH AXIS...AN INCREDIBLY BALMY NIGHT HAS BEEN
OBSERVED WITH TEMPS EVEN AT THIS HOUR RIGHT AROUND 60 IN THE
SOUTHEAST CWA...ACCOMPANIED BY SOUTHERLY BREEZES GUSTING TO AROUND
20 MPH OR HIGHER. FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA HOWEVER...BREEZES
ARE LIGHTER WITH A LIGHT NORTHWEST COMPONENT STARTING TO WORK INTO
NORTHWEST ZONES...WHERE TEMPS ARE NOTABLY COOLER IN THE 40S AND
EVEN SOME UPPER 30S. ALOFT...11-3.9 MICRON AND WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEAL EXPANSIVE WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...WELL TO THE SOUTH OF A POWERFUL NEGATIVELY TILTED
SHORTWAVE GRINDING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. WHILE SKIES ARE
GENERALLY CLEAR OVER THE CWA...A PLUME OF THIN CIRRUS IS SKIRTING
ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES...WHILE A FEW COUNTIES SOUTHEAST OF THE
CWA...SOME LOW STRATUS IS STARTING TO EXPAND ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
AND EASTERN KANSAS.
STARTING OFF RIGHT AWAY THIS MORNING...WILL RUN WITH THE
ASSUMPTION THAT ANY LOW STRATUS DEVELOPING TO OUR SOUTHEAST WILL
REMAIN JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA...ALTHOUGH IT COULD BE A FAIRLY
CLOSE CALL PER 925MB RH PROGS FROM THE 06Z NAM. HRRR HAS ALSO BEEN
SUGGESTING SOME PRE-DAWN FOG DEVELOPMENT IN SOUTHEAST ZONES...BUT
UNLESS WINDS REALLY DROP OFF NOT ANTICIPATING ANYTHING MORE THAN
MAYBE A LIGHT HAZE NOT WORTH MENTIONING IN THE FORECAST AT THIS
POINT. GETTING ON WITH THE BULK OF THE DAY...ANOTHER IN A
REMARKABLE STRING OF DAYS WITH TEMPS RUNNING AROUND 30 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL IS IN STORE...AS THE LOW LEVEL TEMP PROFILE IS
ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED FROM YESTERDAY. ONLY MAIN DIFFERENCE FROM
YESTERDAY IS THAT WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER AND TRANSITION TO MORE OF
A NORTHWEST/NORTHERLY COMPONENT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH
AXIS/WEAK COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH. 06Z RUC SUGGESTS NORTHERLY
BREEZES COULD GET SLIGHTLY BREEZY FOR A FEW HOURS MAINLY LATER
THIS MORNING...BUT SPEEDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN SHORT OF RED
FLAG WARNING CRITERIA. FOR MORE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION...PLEASE
SEE SEPARATE SECTION BELOW. GETTING BACK TO HIGH TEMPS...CHANGED
LITTLE FROM PREVIOUS WITH WIDESPREAD UPPER 70S/NEAR 80 IN NEB
ZONES...AND LOW-MID 80S IN KS.
THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN ALOFT REMAINS
LARGELY UNCHANGED WITH THE BROAD WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW...BUT AT
LEAST KS PORTIONS OF THE CWA SHOULD FINALLY START REALIZING SOME
LEGITIMATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE
06Z NAM/GFS PROGGING MUCAPE IN THE 850-700MB LAYER INCREASING TO
BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO
MODEST THETA-E ADVECTION SPARKED BY A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE
TRANSITIONING THROUGH THE FLOW. COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO...MODELS
IN GENERAL ARE MUCH LESS BULLISH ON INITIATING CONVECTION...WITH
THE NAM NOW DRY AND GFS FOCUSING OVERNIGHT CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE
CWA. 00Z 4KM WRF-NMM IS ALSO DRY. ALL THAT BEING SAID...TRIMMED
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR STORMS OUT OF NEB ZONES BUT KEPT A TOKEN MENTION
GOING ACROSS KS...AS WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A ROGUE STORM
POP IN THE FAVORABLE THETA-E ADVECTION REGIME. STILL...WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED IF DAY SHIFT OPTS TO PULL THE SLIGHT POP ALTOGETHER
DEPENDING ON WHAT NEW MODEL SUITE HAS TO OFFER. FOR LOW TEMPS
TONIGHT...KEPT SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS OVERALL...BUT NUDGED DOWN
SOUTHEAST SLIGHTLY AS LIGHT/VARIABLE WIND REGIME SHOULD ALLOW FOR
MORE OF A DROP. THUS HAVE A RANGE FROM UPPER 30S FAR NORTHWEST TO
LOW 50S FAR SOUTHEAST.
THURSDAY...SAME OLD STORY ALOFT WITH THE WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW...BUT
DOWN LOW...INSTABILITY REALLY RAMPS UP DURING THE AFTERNOON TO THE
EAST OF ANOTHER FAIRLY SUBTLE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS DROPPING IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST. ALTHOUGH THE NAM CAPE VALUES MAY BE OVERDONE...EVEN
THE 06 GFS BRINGS 0-1KM MLCAPE INTO THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE
DURING PEAK HEATING IN EASTERN ZONES...WITH FAIRLY WEAK CAPPING
AND AROUND 30KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THE ULTIMATE QUESTION IS
WHETHER SUBTLE FORCING WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO FIRE CONVECTION.
MODELS CONTINUE TO THROW VARIOUS QPF SOLUTIONS...WITH THE 06Z NAM
LESS AGGRESSIVE THAN ITS 00Z RUN FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
STILL SHOWING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IN THE EVENING MAINLY EAST OF
HWY 281. THE 00Z ECMWF KEEPS ALL CONVECTION SEVERAL COUNTIES EAST
OF THE CWA DURING THIS TIME. ALL THINGS CONSIDERED...CONFIDENCE IS
QUITE LOW WHETHER CONVECTION WILL FIRE...BUT AGREE WITH SPC DAY 2
OUTLOOK THAT ANYTHING THAT DOES GO COULD BECOME STRONG/SEVERE AND
YIELD HAIL/STRONG WINDS. THUS INTRODUCED LOW CONFIDENCE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN ZONES THURS AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING...WITH NOTHING AFTER 06Z AS ANY POTENTIAL STORMS EXPECTED
TO BE OFF TO THE EAST BY THEN. GETTING BACK TO THE DAYTIME
HOURS...ESSENTIALLY COOKIE CUTTER HIGH TEMPS CONTINUE...WITH
WIDESPREAD UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80.
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...UPPER PATTERN STARTS TO SHIFT MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY AS LARGE SCALE TROUGH BEGINS TO IMPINGE ON WEST
COAST. SOUTHERLY BREEZES WILL START PICKING UP DURING THE
DAY...AND BOOSTED SPEEDS NOTICEABLY IN GRIDS...WITH SUSTAINED
SPEEDS AT LEAST AROUND 20 MPH ANTICIPATED. ALTHOUGH AIR MASS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOISTEN WITH WIDESPREAD 50+ DEWPOINTS PROGGED IN
EASTERN COUNTIES...AGAIN HAVE HIGH TEMPS RIGHT AROUND 80 MOST
AREAS. STRONGLY CONSIDERED ADDING ANOTHER SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS VARIOUS MODELS DEPICT AN
EMBEDDED MID LEVEL WAVE SPARKING CONVECTION IN OR NEAR THE
CWA...ESPECIALLY THE GFS ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITHIN A STRONG LOW LEVEL
JET AXIS AND MUCAPE IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG. CERTAINLY IF ANY
STORMS DO MANAGE TO FIRE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE NIGHT...STRONG
TO SEVERE POTENTIAL IS THERE PER SPC DAY 3 OUTLOOK...BUT WITH THIS
STILL BEING 5-6 PERIODS OUT AND MODELS STRUGGLING WITH RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY OF FORCING/TIMING OF QUICK MOVING WAVES...WILL OPT TO
OMIT THUNDERSTORM MENTION FOR NOW. WOULD RATHER PLAY IT
CONSERVATIVE AND NOT LITTER THE FORECAST WITH MULTIPLE SLIGHT
CHANCES OF STORMS UNTIL CONFIDENCE BECOMES CLEARER AT THIS RANGE.
AS MENTIONED LAST NIGHT...WILL NEED TO ALSO MONITOR NEXT FEW
NIGHTS FOR POSSIBLE FOG DEVELOPMENT MAINLY IN SOUTHEAST ZONES
WHERE BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESIDE...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
STILL TOO LOW TO INSERT A FORMAL FOG MENTION INTO FORECAST.
LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL
BE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AND TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. A FEW WAVES MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW BUT THE FORECAST SHOULD
REMAIN DRY. THE SURFACE GRADIENT TIGHTENS THROUGH THE PERIOD AND
EXPECT THAT WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY STRONG OVER THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD REMAIN VERY WARM WITH READINGS 25 TO
30 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
THE UPPER LOW IN THE SOUTHWEST CONUS STARTS TO MOVE TO THE EAST
SUNDAY NIGHT AND AFFECTS THE AREA MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. MODELS
HAVE QUITE A FEW INCONSISTENCIES BOTH BETWEEN MODELS AND EVEN RUN TO
RUN WITHIN THE MODEL. DESPITE THESE DIFFERENCES THERE ARE SOME
SIMILARITIES AS WELL. THERE IS A LONG TERM FETCH OF WARM MOIST AIR
FROM THE GULF INTO THE EASTERN PART OF THE REGION. AS THE LOW GETS
CLOSER THE MOISTURE GETS PULLED INTO THE CIRCULATION AND THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THE MODEL DEPICTION OF PRECIPITATION IS
FAIRLY SIMILAR CONSIDERING ALL THE DIFFERENCES. WILL KEEP CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES AT 850MB ARE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN DURING THE
WEEKEND SO EXPECT THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER...BUT STILL
SHOULD BE ABOVE NORMAL.
FIRE WEATHER...ALTHOUGH WINDS TODAY SHOULD FALL WELL SHORT OF
OFFICIAL RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA OF SUSTAINED 20 MPH/GUST 25
MPH...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE YET AGAIN PROGGED TO SLIP AT
LEAST DOWN INTO THE 15-20 PERCENT RANGE FOR MANY AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE HIGHWAY 281 CORRIDOR. AS A
RESULT...THE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER PRODUCT...RFDGID...HAS DECLARED
EXTREME FIRE DANGER ACROSS THESE CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH CATEGORICAL VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER IN COUNTIES TO
THE EAST. WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...TODAY SHOULD BE THE LAST DAY FOR AWHILE THAT WILL FEATURE
WIDESPREAD RH VALUES BELOW 20 PERCENT. GIVEN THE INCREDIBLE WARM
PATTERN WE ARE IN...THE AREA CAN CERTAINLY USE SOME WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL TO QUELL THE FIRE THREAT...ALTHOUGH FOR MUCH OF THE CWA
THAT MAY HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN THE
LARGE SCALE TROUGH MOVES IN.
CLIMATE...GONNA BE ANOTHER DAY OF AT LEAST NEARING RECORD HIGHS
IN THE TRI-CITIES. ALTHOUGH OFFICIAL FORECAST CURRENTLY KEEPS
READINGS JUST SHORT...THE HIGHS TO BREAK ARE ALL FROM WAY BACK IN
1935...AND CONSIST OF 81 IN GRAND ISLAND...83 IN HASTINGS AND 82
IN KEARNEY. THIS DOES NOT LOOK TO BE THE LAST DAY OF THE NEXT
SEVERAL IN WHICH RECORD HIGHS COULD BE IN JEOPARDY OF
FALLING...BUT THOSE FOR THURSDAY DO APPEAR LEGITIMATELY OUT OF
REACH AS THINGS STAND.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
642 AM CDT WED MAR 14 2012
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS NEAR FL020 WERE DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHEAST
KANSAS...AND ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA. OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS COULD SKIRT THE KOMA AREA FOR A FEW
HOURS BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z...BUT WILL LIKELY STAY JUST TO THE
SOUTHEAST. OTHERWISE SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE FORECAST.
A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AT ALL TAF SITES EARLY WILL GRADUALLY
BECOME NORTHERLY AS A COLD FRONT DRIFTS THROUGH EASTERN NEBRASKA
DURING THE DAY.
DERGAN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 AM CDT WED MAR 14 2012/
DISCUSSION...
FOCUS CENTERS AROUND RECORD/NEAR RECORD TEMPS AND CHANCES FOR
TSTMS NEXT FEW DAYS.
WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAS MOVED WELL EAST OF THE REGION LEAVING
CENTRAL PLAINS IN WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FOR NEXT FEW DAYS.
SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS SOUTHWEST FLOW
AND WILL COMPLICATE THE FORECAST INTO THE WEEKEND. MODEL AGREEMENT
ON STRENGTH OF THESE SHORTWAVES IS POOR...LEADING TO LOW
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE ON TSTM CHANCES INTO THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN QUITE WARM THIS MORNING AND WILL BE CLOSE TO
RECORD MAX MINS. STRONG MOIST ADVECTION CONTINUES WITH UPSTREAM
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S. PATCHY STRATUS IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP
ACROSS SRN KS AND SO WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON HOW
WIDESPREAD THIS BECOMES THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. 06Z NAM AND
LATEST HRRR ARE TOO QUICK ON SPREADING THIS STRATUS INTO OUR SERN
COUNTIES SO DO HAVE RESERVATIONS ABOUT ADDING CLOUDS TO THE
SOUTHEAST. SURFACE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS ACROSS CNTRL ND
AND INTO NWRN SD AND WILL QUICKLY PUSH SEWD THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS AND ENTER INTO THE NWRN CWA BY LATE MORNING. WE SHOULD BE
ABLE TO MIX OUT AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WITH THE FRONT COMING THRU A
MAJORITY OF THE CWA BY PEAK HEATING. HAVE FOLLOWED MORE CLOSELY TO
PREVIOUS FORECAST HIGHS TODAY RATHER THAN JUMP ONTO NEW MET
GUIDANCE WHICH IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER. WE ARE STILL
FORECASTING NEAR RECORD HIGHS AT LNK AND OMA. DID REMOVE CHANCE OF
TSTMS TONIGHT AS FORCING IS MINIMAL AND INSTABILITY AXIS IS FAR TO
OUR SOUTH. SFC FRONT WASHES OUT OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING.
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW RETURNS ON THURSDAY WITH SFC DEWPOINTS
RETURNING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 IN OUR SOUTH BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. DRY LINE/SFC TROF IS FORECAST TO REMAIN JUST TO OUR WEST
AND AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE REGION...TSTMS
COULD POSSIBLY DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON. SWODY2 HAS LARGE AREA OF
SLIGHT RISK OVER THE CWA. WL CONCENTRATE TSTM CHANCES MAINLY IN THE
SOUTH WHERE RICH THETA-E AIR RESIDES. VEERED LOW LEVEL JET AROUND
30KTS WL AID IN LLVL CONVERGENCE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW ON THE TSTM CHANCES SO THEREFORE HAVE ONLY GONE WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE POP.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND WITH RICH
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE. SHORTWAVE IS
FORECAST TO PASS OVER THE REGION WITH LITTLE CONFIDENCE ONCE
AGAIN ON STRENGTH. WL NOT GET TOO CARRIED AWAY ADDING TSTMS OVER
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA JUST YET BUT DO HAVE LOW POPS IN THE SOUTH
ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS NOSE OF VEERED 50KT LOW LEVEL JET CREEPS INTO
SERN NEB WHERE INSTABILITY REMAINS MODERATE.
IN THE EXTENDED...LARGE WESTERN TROF AXIS IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY
PROGRESS INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY MONDAY AND BECOME SLIGHTLY
NEGATIVELY TILTED BY TUESDAY AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE CNTRL PLAINS.
CHANCE POPS CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF THIS LARGE
TROUGH.
KERN
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
554 AM CDT WED MAR 14 2012
.AVIATION...12Z TAF. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA THIS MORNING AND TURN WINDS TO THE WEST...AND EVENTUALLY
TO THE NORTHWEST. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER TODAY WITH SPEEDS AROUND
10 KNOTS OR LESS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH SOME CIRRUS
STREAMING ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 525 AM CDT WED MAR 14 2012/
SHORT TERM...THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE IS
DETERMINING WHEN...AND EVEN TO SOME EXTENT IF...LEGITIMATE
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL TAKE PLACE WITHIN THE CWA AS
THE AIRMASS DESTABILIZES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
09Z OBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS A WEAK TROUGH AXIS CUTTING
ACROSS THE HEART OF THE CWA FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST...TRAILING
WELL SOUTH OF A STRONG...PARENT SURFACE LOW IN CANADA. TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THIS TROUGH AXIS...AN INCREDIBLY BALMY NIGHT HAS BEEN
OBSERVED WITH TEMPS EVEN AT THIS HOUR RIGHT AROUND 60 IN THE
SOUTHEAST CWA...ACCOMPANIED BY SOUTHERLY BREEZES GUSTING TO AROUND
20 MPH OR HIGHER. FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA HOWEVER...BREEZES
ARE LIGHTER WITH A LIGHT NORTHWEST COMPONENT STARTING TO WORK INTO
NORTHWEST ZONES...WHERE TEMPS ARE NOTABLY COOLER IN THE 40S AND
EVEN SOME UPPER 30S. ALOFT...11-3.9 MICRON AND WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEAL EXPANSIVE WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...WELL TO THE SOUTH OF A POWERFUL NEGATIVELY TILTED
SHORTWAVE GRINDING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. WHILE SKIES ARE
GENERALLY CLEAR OVER THE CWA...A PLUME OF THIN CIRRUS IS SKIRTING
ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES...WHILE A FEW COUNTIES SOUTHEAST OF THE
CWA...SOME LOW STRATUS IS STARTING TO EXPAND ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
AND EASTERN KANSAS.
STARTING OFF RIGHT AWAY THIS MORNING...WILL RUN WITH THE
ASSUMPTION THAT ANY LOW STRATUS DEVELOPING TO OUR SOUTHEAST WILL
REMAIN JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA...ALTHOUGH IT COULD BE A FAIRLY
CLOSE CALL PER 925MB RH PROGS FROM THE 06Z NAM. HRRR HAS ALSO BEEN
SUGGESTING SOME PRE-DAWN FOG DEVELOPMENT IN SOUTHEAST ZONES...BUT
UNLESS WINDS REALLY DROP OFF NOT ANTICIPATING ANYTHING MORE THAN
MAYBE A LIGHT HAZE NOT WORTH MENTIONING IN THE FORECAST AT THIS
POINT. GETTING ON WITH THE BULK OF THE DAY...ANOTHER IN A
REMARKABLE STRING OF DAYS WITH TEMPS RUNNING AROUND 30 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL IS IN STORE...AS THE LOW LEVEL TEMP PROFILE IS
ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED FROM YESTERDAY. ONLY MAIN DIFFERENCE FROM
YESTERDAY IS THAT WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER AND TRANSITION TO MORE OF
A NORTHWEST/NORTHERLY COMPONENT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH
AXIS/WEAK COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH. 06Z RUC SUGGESTS NORTHERLY
BREEZES COULD GET SLIGHTLY BREEZY FOR A FEW HOURS MAINLY LATER
THIS MORNING...BUT SPEEDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN SHORT OF RED
FLAG WARNING CRITERIA. FOR MORE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION...PLEASE
SEE SEPARATE SECTION BELOW. GETTING BACK TO HIGH TEMPS...CHANGED
LITTLE FROM PREVIOUS WITH WIDESPREAD UPPER 70S/NEAR 80 IN NEB
ZONES...AND LOW-MID 80S IN KS.
THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN ALOFT REMAINS
LARGELY UNCHANGED WITH THE BROAD WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW...BUT AT
LEAST KS PORTIONS OF THE CWA SHOULD FINALLY START REALIZING SOME
LEGITIMATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE
06Z NAM/GFS PROGGING MUCAPE IN THE 850-700MB LAYER INCREASING TO
BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO
MODEST THETA-E ADVECTION SPARKED BY A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE
TRANSITIONING THROUGH THE FLOW. COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO...MODELS
IN GENERAL ARE MUCH LESS BULLISH ON INITIATING CONVECTION...WITH
THE NAM NOW DRY AND GFS FOCUSING OVERNIGHT CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE
CWA. 00Z 4KM WRF-NMM IS ALSO DRY. ALL THAT BEING SAID...TRIMMED
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR STORMS OUT OF NEB ZONES BUT KEPT A TOKEN MENTION
GOING ACROSS KS...AS WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A ROGUE STORM
POP IN THE FAVORABLE THETA-E ADVECTION REGIME. STILL...WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED IF DAY SHIFT OPTS TO PULL THE SLIGHT POP ALTOGETHER
DEPENDING ON WHAT NEW MODEL SUITE HAS TO OFFER. FOR LOW TEMPS
TONIGHT...KEPT SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS OVERALL...BUT NUDGED DOWN
SOUTHEAST SLIGHTLY AS LIGHT/VARIABLE WIND REGIME SHOULD ALLOW FOR
MORE OF A DROP. THUS HAVE A RANGE FROM UPPER 30S FAR NORTHWEST TO
LOW 50S FAR SOUTHEAST.
THURSDAY...SAME OLD STORY ALOFT WITH THE WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW...BUT
DOWN LOW...INSTABILITY REALLY RAMPS UP DURING THE AFTERNOON TO THE
EAST OF ANOTHER FAIRLY SUBTLE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS DROPPING IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST. ALTHOUGH THE NAM CAPE VALUES MAY BE OVERDONE...EVEN
THE 06 GFS BRINGS 0-1KM MLCAPE INTO THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE
DURING PEAK HEATING IN EASTERN ZONES...WITH FAIRLY WEAK CAPPING
AND AROUND 30KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THE ULTIMATE QUESTION IS
WHETHER SUBTLE FORCING WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO FIRE CONVECTION.
MODELS CONTINUE TO THROW VARIOUS QPF SOLUTIONS...WITH THE 06Z NAM
LESS AGGRESSIVE THAN ITS 00Z RUN FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
STILL SHOWING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IN THE EVENING MAINLY EAST OF
HWY 281. THE 00Z ECMWF KEEPS ALL CONVECTION SEVERAL COUNTIES EAST
OF THE CWA DURING THIS TIME. ALL THINGS CONSIDERED...CONFIDENCE IS
QUITE LOW WHETHER CONVECTION WILL FIRE...BUT AGREE WITH SPC DAY 2
OUTLOOK THAT ANYTHING THAT DOES GO COULD BECOME STRONG/SEVERE AND
YIELD HAIL/STRONG WINDS. THUS INTRODUCED LOW CONFIDENCE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN ZONES THURS AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING...WITH NOTHING AFTER 06Z AS ANY POTENTIAL STORMS EXPECTED
TO BE OFF TO THE EAST BY THEN. GETTING BACK TO THE DAYTIME
HOURS...ESSENTIALLY COOKIE CUTTER HIGH TEMPS CONTINUE...WITH
WIDESPREAD UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80.
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...UPPER PATTERN STARTS TO SHIFT MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY AS LARGE SCALE TROUGH BEGINS TO IMPINGE ON WEST
COAST. SOUTHERLY BREEZES WILL START PICKING UP DURING THE
DAY...AND BOOSTED SPEEDS NOTICEABLY IN GRIDS...WITH SUSTAINED
SPEEDS AT LEAST AROUND 20 MPH ANTICIPATED. ALTHOUGH AIR MASS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOISTEN WITH WIDESPREAD 50+ DEWPOINTS PROGGED IN
EASTERN COUNTIES...AGAIN HAVE HIGH TEMPS RIGHT AROUND 80 MOST
AREAS. STRONGLY CONSIDERED ADDING ANOTHER SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS VARIOUS MODELS DEPICT AN
EMBEDDED MID LEVEL WAVE SPARKING CONVECTION IN OR NEAR THE
CWA...ESPECIALLY THE GFS ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITHIN A STRONG LOW LEVEL
JET AXIS AND MUCAPE IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG. CERTAINLY IF ANY
STORMS DO MANAGE TO FIRE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE NIGHT...STRONG
TO SEVERE POTENTIAL IS THERE PER SPC DAY 3 OUTLOOK...BUT WITH THIS
STILL BEING 5-6 PERIODS OUT AND MODELS STRUGGLING WITH RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY OF FORCING/TIMING OF QUICK MOVING WAVES...WILL OPT TO
OMIT THUNDERSTORM MENTION FOR NOW. WOULD RATHER PLAY IT
CONSERVATIVE AND NOT LITTER THE FORECAST WITH MULTIPLE SLIGHT
CHANCES OF STORMS UNTIL CONFIDENCE BECOMES CLEARER AT THIS RANGE.
AS MENTIONED LAST NIGHT...WILL NEED TO ALSO MONITOR NEXT FEW
NIGHTS FOR POSSIBLE FOG DEVELOPMENT MAINLY IN SOUTHEAST ZONES
WHERE BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESIDE...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
STILL TOO LOW TO INSERT A FORMAL FOG MENTION INTO FORECAST.
LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL
BE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AND TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. A FEW WAVES MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW BUT THE FORECAST SHOULD
REMAIN DRY. THE SURFACE GRADIENT TIGHTENS THROUGH THE PERIOD AND
EXPECT THAT WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY STRONG OVER THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD REMAIN VERY WARM WITH READINGS 25 TO
30 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
THE UPPER LOW IN THE SOUTHWEST CONUS STARTS TO MOVE TO THE EAST
SUNDAY NIGHT AND AFFECTS THE AREA MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. MODELS
HAVE QUITE A FEW INCONSISTENCIES BOTH BETWEEN MODELS AND EVEN RUN TO
RUN WITHIN THE MODEL. DESPITE THESE DIFFERENCES THERE ARE SOME
SIMILARITIES AS WELL. THERE IS A LONG TERM FETCH OF WARM MOIST AIR
FROM THE GULF INTO THE EASTERN PART OF THE REGION. AS THE LOW GETS
CLOSER THE MOISTURE GETS PULLED INTO THE CIRCULATION AND THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THE MODEL DEPICTION OF PRECIPITATION IS
FAIRLY SIMILAR CONSIDERING ALL THE DIFFERENCES. WILL KEEP CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES AT 850MB ARE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN DURING THE
WEEKEND SO EXPECT THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER...BUT STILL
SHOULD BE ABOVE NORMAL.
FIRE WEATHER...ALTHOUGH WINDS TODAY SHOULD FALL WELL SHORT OF
OFFICIAL RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA OF SUSTAINED 20 MPH/GUST 25
MPH...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE YET AGAIN PROGGED TO SLIP AT
LEAST DOWN INTO THE 15-20 PERCENT RANGE FOR MANY AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE HIGHWAY 281 CORRIDOR. AS A
RESULT...THE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER PRODUCT...RFDGID...HAS DECLARED
EXTREME FIRE DANGER ACROSS THESE CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH CATEGORICAL VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER IN COUNTIES TO
THE EAST. WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...TODAY SHOULD BE THE LAST DAY FOR AWHILE THAT WILL FEATURE
WIDESPREAD RH VALUES BELOW 20 PERCENT. GIVEN THE INCREDIBLE WARM
PATTERN WE ARE IN...THE AREA CAN CERTAINLY USE SOME WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL TO QUELL THE FIRE THREAT...ALTHOUGH FOR MUCH OF THE CWA
THAT MAY HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN THE
LARGE SCALE TROUGH MOVES IN.
CLIMATE...GONNA BE ANOTHER DAY OF AT LEAST NEARING RECORD HIGHS
IN THE TRI-CITIES. ALTHOUGH OFFICIAL FORECAST CURRENTLY KEEPS
READINGS JUST SHORT...THE HIGHS TO BREAK ARE ALL FROM WAY BACK IN
1935...AND CONSIST OF 81 IN GRAND ISLAND...83 IN HASTINGS AND 82
IN KEARNEY. THIS DOES NOT LOOK TO BE THE LAST DAY OF THE NEXT
SEVERAL IN WHICH RECORD HIGHS COULD BE IN JEOPARDY OF
FALLING...BUT THOSE FOR THURSDAY DO APPEAR LEGITIMATELY OUT OF
REACH AS THINGS STAND.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
525 AM CDT WED MAR 14 2012
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE IS
DETERMINING WHEN...AND EVEN TO SOME EXTENT IF...LEGITIMATE
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL TAKE PLACE WITHIN THE CWA AS
THE AIRMASS DESTABILIZES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
09Z OBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS A WEAK TROUGH AXIS CUTTING
ACROSS THE HEART OF THE CWA FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST...TRAILING
WELL SOUTH OF A STRONG...PARENT SURFACE LOW IN CANADA. TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THIS TROUGH AXIS...AN INCREDIBLY BALMY NIGHT HAS BEEN
OBSERVED WITH TEMPS EVEN AT THIS HOUR RIGHT AROUND 60 IN THE
SOUTHEAST CWA...ACCOMPANIED BY SOUTHERLY BREEZES GUSTING TO AROUND
20 MPH OR HIGHER. FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA HOWEVER...BREEZES
ARE LIGHTER WITH A LIGHT NORTHWEST COMPONENT STARTING TO WORK INTO
NORTHWEST ZONES...WHERE TEMPS ARE NOTABLY COOLER IN THE 40S AND
EVEN SOME UPPER 30S. ALOFT...11-3.9 MICRON AND WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEAL EXPANSIVE WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...WELL TO THE SOUTH OF A POWERFUL NEGATIVELY TILTED
SHORTWAVE GRINDING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. WHILE SKIES ARE
GENERALLY CLEAR OVER THE CWA...A PLUME OF THIN CIRRUS IS SKIRTING
ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES...WHILE A FEW COUNTIES SOUTHEAST OF THE
CWA...SOME LOW STRATUS IS STARTING TO EXPAND ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
AND EASTERN KANSAS.
STARTING OFF RIGHT AWAY THIS MORNING...WILL RUN WITH THE
ASSUMPTION THAT ANY LOW STRATUS DEVELOPING TO OUR SOUTHEAST WILL
REMAIN JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA...ALTHOUGH IT COULD BE A FAIRLY
CLOSE CALL PER 925MB RH PROGS FROM THE 06Z NAM. HRRR HAS ALSO BEEN
SUGGESTING SOME PRE-DAWN FOG DEVELOPMENT IN SOUTHEAST ZONES...BUT
UNLESS WINDS REALLY DROP OFF NOT ANTICIPATING ANYTHING MORE THAN
MAYBE A LIGHT HAZE NOT WORTH MENTIONING IN THE FORECAST AT THIS
POINT. GETTING ON WITH THE BULK OF THE DAY...ANOTHER IN A
REMARKABLE STRING OF DAYS WITH TEMPS RUNNING AROUND 30 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL IS IN STORE...AS THE LOW LEVEL TEMP PROFILE IS
ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED FROM YESTERDAY. ONLY MAIN DIFFERENCE FROM
YESTERDAY IS THAT WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER AND TRANSITION TO MORE OF
A NORTHWEST/NORTHERLY COMPONENT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH
AXIS/WEAK COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH. 06Z RUC SUGGESTS NORTHERLY
BREEZES COULD GET SLIGHTLY BREEZY FOR A FEW HOURS MAINLY LATER
THIS MORNING...BUT SPEEDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN SHORT OF RED
FLAG WARNING CRITERIA. FOR MORE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION...PLEASE
SEE SEPARATE SECTION BELOW. GETTING BACK TO HIGH TEMPS...CHANGED
LITTLE FROM PREVIOUS WITH WIDESPREAD UPPER 70S/NEAR 80 IN NEB
ZONES...AND LOW-MID 80S IN KS.
THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN ALOFT REMAINS
LARGELY UNCHANGED WITH THE BROAD WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW...BUT AT
LEAST KS PORTIONS OF THE CWA SHOULD FINALLY START REALIZING SOME
LEGITIMATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE
06Z NAM/GFS PROGGING MUCAPE IN THE 850-700MB LAYER INCREASING TO
BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO
MODEST THETA-E ADVECTION SPARKED BY A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE
TRANSITIONING THROUGH THE FLOW. COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO...MODELS
IN GENERAL ARE MUCH LESS BULLISH ON INITIATING CONVECTION...WITH
THE NAM NOW DRY AND GFS FOCUSING OVERNIGHT CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE
CWA. 00Z 4KM WRF-NMM IS ALSO DRY. ALL THAT BEING SAID...TRIMMED
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR STORMS OUT OF NEB ZONES BUT KEPT A TOKEN MENTION
GOING ACROSS KS...AS WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A ROGUE STORM
POP IN THE FAVORABLE THETA-E ADVECTION REGIME. STILL...WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED IF DAY SHIFT OPTS TO PULL THE SLIGHT POP ALTOGETHER
DEPENDING ON WHAT NEW MODEL SUITE HAS TO OFFER. FOR LOW TEMPS
TONIGHT...KEPT SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS OVERALL...BUT NUDGED DOWN
SOUTHEAST SLIGHTLY AS LIGHT/VARIABLE WIND REGIME SHOULD ALLOW FOR
MORE OF A DROP. THUS HAVE A RANGE FROM UPPER 30S FAR NORTHWEST TO
LOW 50S FAR SOUTHEAST.
THURSDAY...SAME OLD STORY ALOFT WITH THE WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW...BUT
DOWN LOW...INSTABILITY REALLY RAMPS UP DURING THE AFTERNOON TO THE
EAST OF ANOTHER FAIRLY SUBTLE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS DROPPING IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST. ALTHOUGH THE NAM CAPE VALUES MAY BE OVERDONE...EVEN
THE 06 GFS BRINGS 0-1KM MLCAPE INTO THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE
DURING PEAK HEATING IN EASTERN ZONES...WITH FAIRLY WEAK CAPPING
AND AROUND 30KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THE ULTIMATE QUESTION IS
WHETHER SUBTLE FORCING WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO FIRE CONVECTION.
MODELS CONTINUE TO THROW VARIOUS QPF SOLUTIONS...WITH THE 06Z NAM
LESS AGGRESSIVE THAN ITS 00Z RUN FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
STILL SHOWING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IN THE EVENING MAINLY EAST OF
HWY 281. THE 00Z ECMWF KEEPS ALL CONVECTION SEVERAL COUNTIES EAST
OF THE CWA DURING THIS TIME. ALL THINGS CONSIDERED...CONFIDENCE IS
QUITE LOW WHETHER CONVECTION WILL FIRE...BUT AGREE WITH SPC DAY 2
OUTLOOK THAT ANYTHING THAT DOES GO COULD BECOME STRONG/SEVERE AND
YIELD HAIL/STRONG WINDS. THUS INTRODUCED LOW CONFIDENCE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN ZONES THURS AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING...WITH NOTHING AFTER 06Z AS ANY POTENTIAL STORMS EXPECTED
TO BE OFF TO THE EAST BY THEN. GETTING BACK TO THE DAYTIME
HOURS...ESSENTIALLY COOKIE CUTTER HIGH TEMPS CONTINUE...WITH
WIDESPREAD UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80.
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...UPPER PATTERN STARTS TO SHIFT MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY AS LARGE SCALE TROUGH BEGINS TO IMPINGE ON WEST
COAST. SOUTHERLY BREEZES WILL START PICKING UP DURING THE
DAY...AND BOOSTED SPEEDS NOTICEABLY IN GRIDS...WITH SUSTAINED
SPEEDS AT LEAST AROUND 20 MPH ANTICIPATED. ALTHOUGH AIR MASS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOISTEN WITH WIDESPREAD 50+ DEWPOINTS PROGGED IN
EASTERN COUNTIES...AGAIN HAVE HIGH TEMPS RIGHT AROUND 80 MOST
AREAS. STRONGLY CONSIDERED ADDING ANOTHER SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS VARIOUS MODELS DEPICT AN
EMBEDDED MID LEVEL WAVE SPARKING CONVECTION IN OR NEAR THE
CWA...ESPECIALLY THE GFS ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITHIN A STRONG LOW LEVEL
JET AXIS AND MUCAPE IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG. CERTAINLY IF ANY
STORMS DO MANAGE TO FIRE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE NIGHT...STRONG
TO SEVERE POTENTIAL IS THERE PER SPC DAY 3 OUTLOOK...BUT WITH THIS
STILL BEING 5-6 PERIODS OUT AND MODELS STRUGGLING WITH RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY OF FORCING/TIMING OF QUICK MOVING WAVES...WILL OPT TO
OMIT THUNDERSTORM MENTION FOR NOW. WOULD RATHER PLAY IT
CONSERVATIVE AND NOT LITTER THE FORECAST WITH MULTIPLE SLIGHT
CHANCES OF STORMS UNTIL CONFIDENCE BECOMES CLEARER AT THIS RANGE.
AS MENTIONED LAST NIGHT...WILL NEED TO ALSO MONITOR NEXT FEW
NIGHTS FOR POSSIBLE FOG DEVELOPMENT MAINLY IN SOUTHEAST ZONES
WHERE BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESIDE...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
STILL TOO LOW TO INSERT A FORMAL FOG MENTION INTO FORECAST.
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL
BE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AND TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. A FEW WAVES MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW BUT THE FORECAST SHOULD
REMAIN DRY. THE SURFACE GRADIENT TIGHTENS THROUGH THE PERIOD AND
EXPECT THAT WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY STRONG OVER THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD REMAIN VERY WARM WITH READINGS 25 TO
30 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
THE UPPER LOW IN THE SOUTHWEST CONUS STARTS TO MOVE TO THE EAST
SUNDAY NIGHT AND AFFECTS THE AREA MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. MODELS
HAVE QUITE A FEW INCONSISTENCIES BOTH BETWEEN MODELS AND EVEN RUN TO
RUN WITHIN THE MODEL. DESPITE THESE DIFFERENCES THERE ARE SOME
SIMILARITIES AS WELL. THERE IS A LONG TERM FETCH OF WARM MOIST AIR
FROM THE GULF INTO THE EASTERN PART OF THE REGION. AS THE LOW GETS
CLOSER THE MOISTURE GETS PULLED INTO THE CIRCULATION AND THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THE MODEL DEPICTION OF PRECIPITATION IS
FAIRLY SIMILAR CONSIDERING ALL THE DIFFERENCES. WILL KEEP CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES AT 850MB ARE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN DURING THE
WEEKEND SO EXPECT THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER...BUT STILL
SHOULD BE ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...ALTHOUGH WINDS TODAY SHOULD FALL WELL SHORT OF
OFFICIAL RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA OF SUSTAINED 20 MPH/GUST 25
MPH...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE YET AGAIN PROGGED TO SLIP AT
LEAST DOWN INTO THE 15-20 PERCENT RANGE FOR MANY AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE HIGHWAY 281 CORRIDOR. AS A
RESULT...THE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER PRODUCT...RFDGID...HAS DECLARED
EXTREME FIRE DANGER ACROSS THESE CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH CATEGORICAL VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER IN COUNTIES TO
THE EAST. WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...TODAY SHOULD BE THE LAST DAY FOR AWHILE THAT WILL FEATURE
WIDESPREAD RH VALUES BELOW 20 PERCENT. GIVEN THE INCREDIBLE WARM
PATTERN WE ARE IN...THE AREA CAN CERTAINLY USE SOME WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL TO QUELL THE FIRE THREAT...ALTHOUGH FOR MUCH OF THE CWA
THAT MAY HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN THE
LARGE SCALE TROUGH MOVES IN.
&&
.CLIMATE...GONNA BE ANOTHER DAY OF AT LEAST NEARING RECORD HIGHS
IN THE TRI-CITIES. ALTHOUGH OFFICIAL FORECAST CURRENTLY KEEPS
READINGS JUST SHORT...THE HIGHS TO BREAK ARE ALL FROM WAY BACK IN
1935...AND CONSIST OF 81 IN GRAND ISLAND...83 IN HASTINGS AND 82
IN KEARNEY. THIS DOES NOT LOOK TO BE THE LAST DAY OF THE NEXT
SEVERAL IN WHICH RECORD HIGHS COULD BE IN JEOPARDY OF
FALLING...BUT THOSE FOR THURSDAY DO APPEAR LEGITIMATELY OUT OF
REACH AS THINGS STAND.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1228 AM CDT WED MAR 14 2012/
AVIATION...06Z TAF. VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ONLY
SOME CIRRUS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE PERIOD. A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE MORNING AND
TURN WINDS FROM SOUTH TO WEST AND EVENTUALLY NORTHWEST. WINDS WILL
BE FAIRLY LIGHT DURING THE PERIOD...AROUND 10 KNOTS.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/FIRE WEATHER/CLIMATE...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...JCB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
359 AM CDT WED MAR 14 2012
.DISCUSSION...
FOCUS CENTERS AROUND RECORD/NEAR RECORD TEMPS AND CHANCES FOR
TSTMS NEXT FEW DAYS.
WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAS MOVED WELL EAST OF THE REGION LEAVING
CENTRAL PLAINS IN WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FOR NEXT FEW DAYS.
SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS SOUTHWEST FLOW
AND WILL COMPLICATE THE FORECAST INTO THE WEEKEND. MODEL AGREEMENT
ON STRENGTH OF THESE SHORTWAVES IS POOR...LEADING TO LOW
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE ON TSTM CHANCES INTO THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN QUITE WARM THIS MORNING AND WILL BE CLOSE TO
RECORD MAX MINS. STRONG MOIST ADVECTION CONTINUES WITH UPSTREAM
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S. PATCHY STRATUS IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP
ACROSS SRN KS AND SO WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON HOW
WIDESPREAD THIS BECOMES THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. 06Z NAM AND
LATEST HRRR ARE TOO QUICK ON SPREADING THIS STRATUS INTO OUR SERN
COUNTIES SO DO HAVE RESERVATIONS ABOUT ADDING CLOUDS TO THE
SOUTHEAST. SURFACE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS ACROSS CNTRL ND
AND INTO NWRN SD AND WILL QUICKLY PUSH SEWD THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS AND ENTER INTO THE NWRN CWA BY LATE MORNING. WE SHOULD BE
ABLE TO MIX OUT AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WITH THE FRONT COMING THRU A
MAJORITY OF THE CWA BY PEAK HEATING. HAVE FOLLOWED MORE CLOSELY TO
PREVIOUS FORECAST HIGHS TODAY RATHER THAN JUMP ONTO NEW MET
GUIDANCE WHICH IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER. WE ARE STILL
FORECASTING NEAR RECORD HIGHS AT LNK AND OMA. DID REMOVE CHANCE OF
TSTMS TONIGHT AS FORCING IS MINIMAL AND INSTABILITY AXIS IS FAR TO
OUR SOUTH. SFC FRONT WASHES OUT OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING.
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW RETURNS ON THURSDAY WITH SFC DEWPOINTS
RETURNING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 IN OUR SOUTH BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. DRY LINE/SFC TROF IS FORECAST TO REMAIN JUST TO OUR WEST
AND AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE REGION...TSTMS
COULD POSSIBLY DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON. SWODY2 HAS LARGE AREA OF
SLIGHT RISK OVER THE CWA. WL CONCENTRATE TSTM CHANCES MAINLY IN THE
SOUTH WHERE RICH THETA-E AIR RESIDES. VEERED LOW LEVEL JET AROUND
30KTS WL AID IN LLVL CONVERGENCE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW ON THE TSTM CHANCES SO THEREFORE HAVE ONLY GONE WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE POP.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND WITH RICH
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE. SHORTWAVE IS
FORECAST TO PASS OVER THE REGION WITH LITTLE CONFIDENCE ONCE
AGAIN ON STRENGTH. WL NOT GET TOO CARRIED AWAY ADDING TSTMS OVER
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA JUST YET BUT DO HAVE LOW POPS IN THE SOUTH
ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS NOSE OF VEERED 50KT LOW LEVEL JET CREEPS INTO
SERN NEB WHERE INSTABILITY REMAINS MODERATE.
IN THE EXTENDED...LARGE WESTERN TROF AXIS IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY
PROGRESS INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY MONDAY AND BECOME SLIGHTLY
NEGATIVELY TILTED BY TUESDAY AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE CNTRL PLAINS.
CHANCE POPS CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF THIS LARGE
TROUGH.
KERN
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.
SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS LIKELY THROUGH 11Z AT KLNK AND KOMA
AS LOW LEVEL JET KICKS UP TO OVER 40KTS. INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE THROUGH MID MORNING COULD BRING BRIEF MVFR VSBYS TO KLNK
AND KOMA...AND MAYBE SCATTERED CLOUDS BELOW FL020. OTHERWISE A
WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED AT KOFK IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH WINDS
BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY BUT REMAINING FAIRLY LIGHT.
DERGAN
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
942 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
ACCOMPANIED BY SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LINGER ON FRIDAY WITH CONTINUED
UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER... THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE REGION THIS WEEKEND BRINGING DRY WEATHER. UNSEASONABLY WARM
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
930 PM UPDATE...
SURROUNDING RADARS SHOWING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ACTIVITY THIS
EVENING. RUC CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME MODEST MID LEVEL INSTABILITY
OVERNIGHT. WITH UL WAVE PROGGED TO TRACK ACROSS FA, WE WILL KEEP
ISO/CHC THUNDER IN THE FORECAST LATE.
OVERALL WE DECREASED POPS, ESPECIALLY PRIOR TO 6Z. SHOWERS SHOULD
INCREASE TOWARD MORNING.
4 PM UPDATE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG
AND JUST ON THE COLD SIDE OF A BOUNDARY SEPARATING 30S DEW POINTS
OVER EASTERN NY AND NEW ENGLAND FROM 50S DEW POINTS ACROSS WESTERN
NY SOUTHWEST TO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE MAIN CONCENTRATION OF SHOWERS
HAS BEEN OVER ONEIDA COUNTY WHERE STRONGER STORMS HAVE BEEN
ASSOCIATED WITH SOME SMALL HAIL. SPC MESO- ANALYSIS INIDICATES
THAT SFC-BASED CAPE VALUES GREATER THAN 500 J/KG ARE STILL WELL TO
THE WEST OF OUR AREA... HOWEVER SOME MID- LEVEL INSTABILITY EXISTS
ACROSS OUR AREA WITH MID-LVL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7 DEGREES C / KM
PER BUFIT SOUNDINGS. WITH LITTLE LARGE-SCALE FORCING ABOVE THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY EXPECT THAT THESE SHOWERS WILL MOSTLY DISIPATE BY
AROUND SUNSET.
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS
FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT. LOW-LEVEL STABLE LAYER WILL LIKELY
BE IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT BUT MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE MODERATELY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH NEAR
ZERO SHOWALTER INDICIES INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ELEVATED
THUNDER WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE BEST FORCING LATER TONIGHT OR
FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WAVE PASSING ACROSS THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ELEVATED THUNDER. THE WAVE
WILL PASS EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH GRADUAL DRYING.
MODELS SOUNDINGS SHOW AN INCREASE IN INSTABILITY FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WITH NAM FORECAST SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES INCREASING TO OVER
1000 J/KG. GFS FORECASTS MUCH LESS INSTABILITY WITH AFTERNOON
CAPES GENEARALLY BELOW 500 J/KG. BASED ON THIS THINK THAT THERE STILL
COULD STILL BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON DESPITE THE UPPER FORCING MOVING AWAY. ENOUGH
DRY AIR SHOULD MOVE IN TO COMPLETELY SHUT DOWN PRECIPITATION
CHANCES BY FRIDAY EVENING.
VERY QUIET... EXTREMELY WARM WEATHER RETURNS AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A DRY DAY ON
SATURDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN
ON SUNDAY MAINLY ACROSS THE WEST AS MOISTURE RETURN BEGINS AROUND
THE WEST SIDE OF THE SURFACE HIGH. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL
RETURN TO THE 70S IN MOST OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LONG RANGE CONTS TO ADVERTISE A HUGE UPR RDG AND TEMPS WELL ABV
NRML...TO NEAR OR ABV RECORD LVLS. OPERATIONAL GFS AND EURO DO
START THE PD WITH A WV ROTATING THRU THE RDG WHICH WILL BRING THE
CHANCE OF SHWRS AND TRWS ON MON. BHD THE WV...RDG POPS BACK INTO
SHAPE WITH H5 HGTS RCHG ABV 580 BY THE END OPF THE PD. WITH THE
RISING HGTS COMES DRYING AND THERE SEEMS TO BE LOW CHANCE OF PCPN
THRU THE END OF THE PD. MOS GUID BNOT DOING WELL WITH THE
UNSEASONABLE WARMTH AND ARE CLOSE TO 10F TOO LOW BY THE END OF THE
PD. IN GNRL...HPC GUID SEEMED RSNBL THRU THE PD...HWVR TEMPS COULD
END UP BEING EVEN WRMR THAN THE FCST DEPENDING ON THE AMT OF SUN.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPR WV TRIGGERING SHWRS AND TRWS OVER LWR MI THIS EVE WILL MOVE
INTO THE FCST AREA AFT 06Z. XPCT CONVECTION TO WEAKEN SO WILL NOT
FCST LTG BUT WILL XPCT SHWERS AND LWRD CIGS AND VSBYS THRU ABT
14Z. BHD THE WV...MODELS SHOW MUCH DRIER AIR MVG INTO THE REGION
SO A RETURN TO VFR CONDS IS XPCTD THRU THE END OF THE PD. WEAK SFC
GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN LGT WIND OVRNGT...BCMG WLY FRI BHD THE WV.
.OUTLOOK...
SAT TO SUN...VFR.
MON TO TUE...GNRL VFR. CHC MVFR SHOWERS MON NGT INTO TUE MRNG.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...DJP/MSE
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...DGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
936 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
WITH MILD AND MOIST AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH CROSSING THE REGION OVERNIGHT WILL LIKELY BRING A ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE RAIN WILL DIMINISH ON FRIDAY MORNING
WITH A CLEARING TREND AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WILL HAVE
TEMPERATURES MORE SIMILAR TO EARLY JUNE THAN MID MARCH.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 930 PM...THERE ARE SEVERAL AREAS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE REGION...BUT THEY HAVE YET TO REACH WESTERN
NEW YORK. THIS WILL CHANGE AS AN AXIS OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY
DROPS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 600 AM. THE
AREA OF MOST INTEREST IS CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO.
EXPECT THIS AREA TO SLIDE EASTWARD THROUGH THIS EVENING...LIKELY
EXPANDING TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF LAKE
ONTARIO. AFTER THIS...THE LINE SHOULD LIKELY SLIDE
SOUTHWARD...CROSSING WESTERN NEW YORK DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. FEEL THE HRRR DOES HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS...AS ITS
FORECAST IS IN LINE WITH THE GFS FORECAST MOVEMENT OF THIS
AXIS...WHICH HAS THUS FAR WORKED QUITE WELL. MOST OTHER MODELS
APPEAR QUITE FAR OFF...AND HAVE LARGELY BEEN DISCARDED.
THE MAIN IMPACT OF THIS WILL LIKELY BE SOME HEAVY RAIN IN A FEW
LOCATIONS. DESPITE THE TIMING...EXPECT THE ELEVATED CONVECTION TO
MAINTAIN...WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS A POSSIBILITY EVEN DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE WEAK FLOW AND SLOW MOVEMENT OF THIS
MAY RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...WITH GREATER THAN AN INCH OF
RAIN POSSIBLE IN SPOTS. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WITH THIS
REMAINS MINIMAL...AS THE CONVECTION BECOMES ELEVATED AND LESS
CELLULAR. WIND THREAT IS VIRTUALLY NIL...WITH ONLY A MARGINAL
POSSIBILITY FOR HAIL IF CELLS EXCEED EXPECTATIONS.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP VERY LITTLE ONCE HIGH CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS MOVE IN. AFTER THE RAIN...EXPECT THERE WILL BE PATCHY
FOG...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LAKE...AS DEW POINTS INCREASE TO WELL
ABOVE THE LAKE TEMPERATURE.
CONVECTION WILL BE MOVING EASTWARD DURING EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND
SHOULD CLEAR THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MIDDAY THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON. WILL SEE A CLEARING TREND DURING THE
AFTERNOON...BUT MAY BE TOO LATE FOR TEMPS TO CLIMB MUCH MORE THAN
THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S...50S TO LOWER 60S EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO...STILL MUCH ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVERAGE HIGH TEMPS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
BY FRIDAY EVENING A LOW AMPLITUDE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. ANY RAIN SHOULD BE OVER BY EARLY EVENING
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE LOWER LAKES REGION. ON SATURDAY
THIS HIGH WILL BUILD INTO NEW ENGLAND...WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
BOOSTING 925MB TEMPS TO +16C BY THE END OF THE DAY. THIS SHOULD
SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AWAY
FROM THE LAKESHORES. THE SYNOPTIC SCALE FLOW SHOULD STILL BE WEAK
ENOUGH TO ALLOW LOCAL LAKE BREEZES TO FORM DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH
THE PEAK OF DIFFERENTIAL HEATING. ONSHORE BREEZES WILL KEEP AREAS
WITHIN A FEW MILES OF THE LAKES COOLER.
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT A VERY WEAK CONVECTIVELY AUGMENTED SHORTWAVE
WILL TRAVERSE THE TOP OF THE BUILDING RIDGE AND SLOWLY CROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER LAKES REGION. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A
PLUME OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY AWAY
FROM THE LAKE SHADOWS. WITH THIS IN MIND HAVE CONTINUED WITH CHANCE
POPS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GIVEN THE RELATIVELY WEAK
FLOW...ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
THIS SHOULD SLOWLY DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...AND ALSO AS THE WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES OVERWHELMED
BY BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND DISSIPATES.
ANY CONVECTION SHOULD BE LATE ENOUGH IN THE DAY AND SCATTERED ENOUGH
IN NATURE TO ALLOW TEMPS TO SOAR ONCE AGAIN WITH MID 70S ACROSS
LOWER ELEVATIONS AND EVEN CLOSE TO 80 ACROSS THE WARMEST SPOTS OF
THE GENESEE VALLEY. ONCE AGAIN THERE SHOULD BE LOCAL LAKE BREEZES
DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH ONSHORE FLOW KEEPING THE LAKESHORES
COOLER.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE BIG STORY IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE THE ONGOING INCREDIBLE WARMTH
WHICH SHOWS NO SIGNS OF ABATING MOST OF NEXT WEEK. THE LONGWAVE
PATTERN WILL STAGNATE ACROSS NORTH AMERICA WITH A VERY DEEP AND SLOW
MOVING TROUGH IN THE WEST...AND A MASSIVE EASTERN RIDGE WHICH WILL
EVOLVE INTO AN OMEGA BLOCK OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER LAKES BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. 850MB TEMPS WILL RUN IN THE +10C TO +12C RANGE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON MOST DAYS...THIS WILL
TRANSLATE INTO HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH THE WARMER SPOTS
OF THE GENESEE VALLEY LIKELY MAKING A RUN AT 80 ON AT LEAST A FEW
DAYS. EXPECT SYNOPTIC FLOW TO BE WEAK ENOUGH ON MOST DAYS TO ALLOW
LOCAL LAKE BREEZES TO FORM...KEEPING THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORES COOLER.
AS FAR AS PRECIP CHANCES GO...FOLLOWING THE WEAK WAVE ON SUNDAY THE
CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD DIRECTLY OVERHEAD
AGAIN...WHICH SHOULD PRODUCE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF
NEXT WEEK. WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND MODEST
INSTABILITY IN PLACE...THERE IS ALWAYS A SMALL CHANCE OF ISOLATED
DIURNAL CONVECTION BENEATH THE RIDGE AXIS...BUT VERY WARM MID LEVEL
TEMPS AND NO SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL KEEP THIS VERY LIMITED. WITH THIS
IN MIND...HAVE JUST CONTINUED THE DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE INCREDIBLE WARMTH WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF NEXT
WEEK. LONG TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN EVENTUAL BREAKDOWN OF THE
PATTERN BY THE WEEKEND OF MARCH 24TH...EITHER AS THE WESTERN TROUGH
MOVES EAST...OR AS THE RIDGE BUCKLES AND ALLOWS A NORTHERN STREAM
BACKDOOR FRONT INTO NEW ENGLAND.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING...AS THE MAJORITY OF
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN JUST OUT OF WESTERN
NEW YORK...THOUGH THERE WILL BE STORMS NEARBY TO THE NORTH AND
WEST.
EXPECT ACTIVITY TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION BETWEEN 04Z AND
10Z...WITH A PERIOD OF SHOWERS LIKELY AT ALL TAF SITES. THIS WILL
STILL BE CONVECTIVE...WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. TIMING IS
STILL TOO FAR OFF...SO WILL KEEP CB GROUP IN TAFS...AND PLAN ON
INTRODUCING THE TSTM ONCE TIMING BECOMES MORE CERTAIN.
AFTER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TAPER OFF...EXPECT A PERIOD OF
LOWERING CIGS AND POSSIBLY FOG. THIS A BIT TRICKY...SINCE IT WILL
BE DEPENDENT ON WHICH LOCATIONS RECEIVE RAINFALL...BUT WITH
CLEARING ALOFT POSSIBLE...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIFR
CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING IN AREAS WHICH DO GET
SOME RAIN.
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE ON FRIDAY...WITH LIFTING CIGS
AND VSBY DURING THE DAY AS SHOWERS TAPER OFF.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...VFR.
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH CHANCE -TSRA.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
QUIET CONDITIONS ON THE LAKES SHOULD CONTINUE WITH THE COLD LAKE
WATERS STABILIZING WINDS AND WAVES. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
ARE NOT EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MIGHT BE
DURING ANY THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LAKES TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...
DURING WHICH WINDS AND WAVES MAY PRODUCE HAZARDOUS BOATING
CONDITIONS.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
THE KBUF WSR-88D RADAR IS DOWN DUE TO A HARDWARE PROBLEM. A
TECHNICIAN IS ONSITE AND WORKING ON THE PROBLEM. AT THIS TIME IT
APPEARS THAT THE RADAR WILL REMAIN DOWN UNTIL AT LEAST LATE THIS
EVENING.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WCH
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/WCH
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/WCH
EQUIPMENT...APFFEL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
818 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
WITH MILD AND MOIST AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH CROSSING THE REGION OVERNIGHT WILL LIKELY BRING A ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE RAIN WILL DIMINISH ON FRIDAY MORNING
WITH A CLEARING TREND AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WILL HAVE
TEMPERATURES MORE SIMILAR TO EARLY JUNE THAN MID MARCH.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 730 PM...CONVECTION HAS EFFECTIVELY AVOIDED WESTERN NEW
YORK...WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS EASTERN MICHIGAN...WITH JUST A SMALL CLUSTER OF SHOWERS
NEAR ERIE PA. FEATURES DRIVING THIS CONVECTION ARE QUITE
SUBTLE...WITH BOTH SURFACE BASED AND ELEVATED CONVECTION ONGOING.
FOR TONIGHTS FORECAST...THE 18Z GFS SHOWS AN AXIS OF BEST LI
EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN LAKE HURON TO SOUTHERN ONTARIO...WITH
ELEVATED CONVECTION TENDING TO DEVELOP BEST ALONG THIS LINE.
MEANWHILE...THE STRONG STORMS ACROSS EASTERN MICHIGAN APPEAR MORE
SURFACE BASED. THE HRRR ALSO SEEMS TO KEY ON THIS FEATURE AS
WELL...WITH FORECAST UPDATE RELYING ON THESE TWO FEATURES.
EXPECT THIS AREA WILL FLATTEN OUT...AND EVENTUALLY START STREAMING
TO THE EAST INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO. OVERNIGHT...THIS SHOULD BECOME
ELEVATED...DIMINISHING THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AS IT APPROACHES
WESTERN NEW YORK. BECAUSE OF THIS...WILL PUSH BACK THE START TIME
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EVEN FURTHER TO LATE EVENING OR AFTER
MIDNIGHT IN MOST LOCATIONS. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT BY THE TIME
IT REACHES HERE APPEARS TO BE VERY LOW GIVEN THE ELEVATED NATURE
AND DIMINISHED CONVERGENCE BOUNDARIES. HOWEVER...SLOW MOVING CELLS
STILL COULD DROP QUITE A BIT OF RAIN ON A FEW LOCATIONS...THOUGH
IT IS DIFFICULT TO TELL EXACTLY WHERE THIS WILL OCCUR. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD VEER TO THE RIGHT AS THEY APPROACH WESTERN
NEW YORK...WHICH SHOULD KEEP CELLS LAKE ERIE SOUTHWARD OUT OF OUR
REGION.
CONVECTION WILL BE MOVING EASTWARD DURING EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND
SHOULD CLEAR THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MIDDAY THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON. WILL SEE A CLEARING TREND DURING THE
AFTERNOON...BUT MAY BE TOO LATE FOR TEMPS TO CLIMB MUCH MORE THAN
THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S...50S TO LOWER 60S EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO...STILL MUCH ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVERAGE HIGH TEMPS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
BY FRIDAY EVENING A LOW AMPLITUDE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. ANY RAIN SHOULD BE OVER BY EARLY EVENING
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE LOWER LAKES REGION. ON SATURDAY
THIS HIGH WILL BUILD INTO NEW ENGLAND...WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
BOOSTING 925MB TEMPS TO +16C BY THE END OF THE DAY. THIS SHOULD
SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AWAY
FROM THE LAKESHORES. THE SYNOPTIC SCALE FLOW SHOULD STILL BE WEAK
ENOUGH TO ALLOW LOCAL LAKE BREEZES TO FORM DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH
THE PEAK OF DIFFERENTIAL HEATING. ONSHORE BREEZES WILL KEEP AREAS
WITHIN A FEW MILES OF THE LAKES COOLER.
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT A VERY WEAK CONVECTIVELY AUGMENTED SHORTWAVE
WILL TRAVERSE THE TOP OF THE BUILDING RIDGE AND SLOWLY CROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER LAKES REGION. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A
PLUME OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY AWAY
FROM THE LAKE SHADOWS. WITH THIS IN MIND HAVE CONTINUED WITH CHANCE
POPS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GIVEN THE RELATIVELY WEAK
FLOW...ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
THIS SHOULD SLOWLY DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...AND ALSO AS THE WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES OVERWHELMED
BY BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND DISSIPATES.
ANY CONVECTION SHOULD BE LATE ENOUGH IN THE DAY AND SCATTERED ENOUGH
IN NATURE TO ALLOW TEMPS TO SOAR ONCE AGAIN WITH MID 70S ACROSS
LOWER ELEVATIONS AND EVEN CLOSE TO 80 ACROSS THE WARMEST SPOTS OF
THE GENESEE VALLEY. ONCE AGAIN THERE SHOULD BE LOCAL LAKE BREEZES
DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH ONSHORE FLOW KEEPING THE LAKESHORES
COOLER.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE BIG STORY IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE THE ONGOING INCREDIBLE WARMTH
WHICH SHOWS NO SIGNS OF ABATING MOST OF NEXT WEEK. THE LONGWAVE
PATTERN WILL STAGNATE ACROSS NORTH AMERICA WITH A VERY DEEP AND SLOW
MOVING TROUGH IN THE WEST...AND A MASSIVE EASTERN RIDGE WHICH WILL
EVOLVE INTO AN OMEGA BLOCK OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER LAKES BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. 850MB TEMPS WILL RUN IN THE +10C TO +12C RANGE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON MOST DAYS...THIS WILL
TRANSLATE INTO HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH THE WARMER SPOTS
OF THE GENESEE VALLEY LIKELY MAKING A RUN AT 80 ON AT LEAST A FEW
DAYS. EXPECT SYNOPTIC FLOW TO BE WEAK ENOUGH ON MOST DAYS TO ALLOW
LOCAL LAKE BREEZES TO FORM...KEEPING THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORES COOLER.
AS FAR AS PRECIP CHANCES GO...FOLLOWING THE WEAK WAVE ON SUNDAY THE
CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD DIRECTLY OVERHEAD
AGAIN...WHICH SHOULD PRODUCE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF
NEXT WEEK. WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND MODEST
INSTABILITY IN PLACE...THERE IS ALWAYS A SMALL CHANCE OF ISOLATED
DIURNAL CONVECTION BENEATH THE RIDGE AXIS...BUT VERY WARM MID LEVEL
TEMPS AND NO SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL KEEP THIS VERY LIMITED. WITH THIS
IN MIND...HAVE JUST CONTINUED THE DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE INCREDIBLE WARMTH WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF NEXT
WEEK. LONG TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN EVENTUAL BREAKDOWN OF THE
PATTERN BY THE WEEKEND OF MARCH 24TH...EITHER AS THE WESTERN TROUGH
MOVES EAST...OR AS THE RIDGE BUCKLES AND ALLOWS A NORTHERN STREAM
BACKDOOR FRONT INTO NEW ENGLAND.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING...AS THE MAJORITY OF
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN JUST OUT OF WESTERN
NEW YORK...THOUGH THERE WILL BE STORMS NEARBY TO THE NORTH AND
WEST.
EXPECT ACTIVITY TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION BETWEEN 04Z AND
10Z...WITH A PERIOD OF SHOWERS LIKELY AT ALL TAF SITES. THIS WILL
STILL BE CONVECTIVE...WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. TIMING IS
STILL TOO FAR OFF...SO WILL KEEP CB GROUP IN TAFS...AND PLAN ON
INTRODUCING THE TSTM ONCE TIMING BECOMES MORE CERTAIN.
AFTER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TAPER OFF...EXPECT A PERIOD OF
LOWERING CIGS AND POSSIBLY FOG. THIS A BIT TRICKY...SINCE IT WILL
BE DEPENDENT ON WHICH LOCATIONS RECEIVE RAINFALL...BUT WITH
CLEARING ALOFT POSSIBLE...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIFR
CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING IN AREAS WHICH DO GET
SOME RAIN.
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE ON FRIDAY...WITH LIFTING CIGS
AND VSBY DURING THE DAY AS SHOWERS TAPER OFF.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...VFR.
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH CHANCE -TSRA.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
QUIET CONDITIONS ON THE LAKES SHOULD CONTINUE WITH THE COLD LAKE
WATERS STABILIZING WINDS AND WAVES. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
ARE NOT EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MIGHT BE
DURING ANY THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LAKES TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...
DURING WHICH WINDS AND WAVES MAY PRODUCE HAZARDOUS BOATING
CONDITIONS.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
THE KBUF WSR-88D RADAR IS DOWN DUE TO A HARDWARE PROBLEM. A
TECHNICIAN IS ONSITE AND WORKING ON THE PROBLEM. AT THIS TIME IT
APPEARS THAT THE RADAR WILL REMAIN DOWN UNTIL AT LEAST LATE THIS
EVENING.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WCH
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/WCH
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...WCH
EQUIPMENT...APFFEL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
741 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
WITH MILD AND MOIST AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH CROSSING THE REGION OVERNIGHT WILL LIKELY BRING A ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE RAIN WILL DIMINISH ON FRIDAY MORNING
WITH A CLEARING TREND AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WILL HAVE
TEMPERATURES MORE SIMILAR TO EARLY JUNE THAN MID MARCH.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 730 PM...CONVECTION HAS EFFECTIVELY AVOIDED WESTERN NEW
YORK...WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS EASTERN MICHIGAN...WITH JUST A SMALL CLUSTER OF SHOWERS
NEAR ERIE PA. FEATURES DRIVING THIS CONVECTION ARE QUITE
SUBTLE...WITH BOTH SURFACE BASED AND ELEVATED CONVECTION ONGOING.
FOR TONIGHTS FORECAST...THE 18Z GFS SHOWS AN AXIS OF BEST LI
EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN LAKE HURON TO SOUTHERN ONTARIO...WITH
ELEVATED CONVECTION TENDING TO DEVELOP BEST ALONG THIS LINE.
MEANWHILE...THE STRONG STORMS ACROSS EASTERN MICHIGAN APPEAR MORE
SURFACE BASED. THE HRRR ALSO SEEMS TO KEY ON THIS FEATURE AS
WELL...WITH FORECAST UPDATE RELYING ON THESE TWO FEATURES.
EXPECT THIS AREA WILL FLATTEN OUT...AND EVENTUALLY START STREAMING
TO THE EAST INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO. OVERNIGHT...THIS SHOULD BECOME
ELEVATED...DIMINISHING THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AS IT APPROACHES
WESTERN NEW YORK. BECAUSE OF THIS...WILL PUSH BACK THE START TIME
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EVEN FURTHER TO LATE EVENING OR AFTER
MIDNIGHT IN MOST LOCATIONS. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT BY THE TIME
IT REACHES HERE APPEARS TO BE VERY LOW GIVEN THE ELEVATED NATURE
AND DIMINISHED CONVERGENCE BOUNDARIES. HOWEVER...SLOW MOVING CELLS
STILL COULD DROP QUITE A BIT OF RAIN ON A FEW LOCATIONS...THOUGH
IT IS DIFFICULT TO TELL EXACTLY WHERE THIS WILL OCCUR. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD VEER TO THE RIGHT AS THEY APPROACH WESTERN
NEW YORK...WHICH SHOULD KEEP CELLS LAKE ERIE SOUTHWARD OUT OF OUR
REGION.
CONVECTION WILL BE MOVING EASTWARD DURING EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND
SHOULD CLEAR THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MIDDAY THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON. WILL SEE A CLEARING TREND DURING THE
AFTERNOON...BUT MAY BE TOO LATE FOR TEMPS TO CLIMB MUCH MORE THAN
THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S...50S TO LOWER 60S EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO...STILL MUCH ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVERAGE HIGH TEMPS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
BY FRIDAY EVENING A LOW AMPLITUDE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. ANY RAIN SHOULD BE OVER BY EARLY EVENING
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE LOWER LAKES REGION. ON SATURDAY
THIS HIGH WILL BUILD INTO NEW ENGLAND...WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
BOOSTING 925MB TEMPS TO +16C BY THE END OF THE DAY. THIS SHOULD
SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AWAY
FROM THE LAKESHORES. THE SYNOPTIC SCALE FLOW SHOULD STILL BE WEAK
ENOUGH TO ALLOW LOCAL LAKE BREEZES TO FORM DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH
THE PEAK OF DIFFERENTIAL HEATING. ONSHORE BREEZES WILL KEEP AREAS
WITHIN A FEW MILES OF THE LAKES COOLER.
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT A VERY WEAK CONVECTIVELY AUGMENTED SHORTWAVE
WILL TRAVERSE THE TOP OF THE BUILDING RIDGE AND SLOWLY CROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER LAKES REGION. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A
PLUME OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY AWAY
FROM THE LAKE SHADOWS. WITH THIS IN MIND HAVE CONTINUED WITH CHANCE
POPS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GIVEN THE RELATIVELY WEAK
FLOW...ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
THIS SHOULD SLOWLY DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...AND ALSO AS THE WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES OVERWHELMED
BY BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND DISSIPATES.
ANY CONVECTION SHOULD BE LATE ENOUGH IN THE DAY AND SCATTERED ENOUGH
IN NATURE TO ALLOW TEMPS TO SOAR ONCE AGAIN WITH MID 70S ACROSS
LOWER ELEVATIONS AND EVEN CLOSE TO 80 ACROSS THE WARMEST SPOTS OF
THE GENESEE VALLEY. ONCE AGAIN THERE SHOULD BE LOCAL LAKE BREEZES
DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH ONSHORE FLOW KEEPING THE LAKESHORES
COOLER.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE BIG STORY IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE THE ONGOING INCREDIBLE WARMTH
WHICH SHOWS NO SIGNS OF ABATING MOST OF NEXT WEEK. THE LONGWAVE
PATTERN WILL STAGNATE ACROSS NORTH AMERICA WITH A VERY DEEP AND SLOW
MOVING TROUGH IN THE WEST...AND A MASSIVE EASTERN RIDGE WHICH WILL
EVOLVE INTO AN OMEGA BLOCK OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER LAKES BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. 850MB TEMPS WILL RUN IN THE +10C TO +12C RANGE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON MOST DAYS...THIS WILL
TRANSLATE INTO HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH THE WARMER SPOTS
OF THE GENESEE VALLEY LIKELY MAKING A RUN AT 80 ON AT LEAST A FEW
DAYS. EXPECT SYNOPTIC FLOW TO BE WEAK ENOUGH ON MOST DAYS TO ALLOW
LOCAL LAKE BREEZES TO FORM...KEEPING THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORES COOLER.
AS FAR AS PRECIP CHANCES GO...FOLLOWING THE WEAK WAVE ON SUNDAY THE
CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD DIRECTLY OVERHEAD
AGAIN...WHICH SHOULD PRODUCE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF
NEXT WEEK. WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND MODEST
INSTABILITY IN PLACE...THERE IS ALWAYS A SMALL CHANCE OF ISOLATED
DIURNAL CONVECTION BENEATH THE RIDGE AXIS...BUT VERY WARM MID LEVEL
TEMPS AND NO SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL KEEP THIS VERY LIMITED. WITH THIS
IN MIND...HAVE JUST CONTINUED THE DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE INCREDIBLE WARMTH WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF NEXT
WEEK. LONG TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN EVENTUAL BREAKDOWN OF THE
PATTERN BY THE WEEKEND OF MARCH 24TH...EITHER AS THE WESTERN TROUGH
MOVES EAST...OR AS THE RIDGE BUCKLES AND ALLOWS A NORTHERN STREAM
BACKDOOR FRONT INTO NEW ENGLAND.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING...AS THE MAJORITY OF
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN JUST OUT OF WESTERN
NEW YORK...THOUGH THERE WILL BE STORMS NEARBY TO THE NORTH AND
WEST.
EXPECT ACTIVITY TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION BETWEEN 04Z AND
10Z...WITH A PERIOD OF SHOWERS LIKELY AT ALL TAF SITES. THIS WILL
STILL BE CONVECTIVE...WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. TIMING IS
STILL TOO FAR OFF...SO WILL KEEP CB GROUP IN TAFS...AND PLAN ON
INTRODUCING THE TSTM ONCE TIMING BECOMES MORE CERTAIN.
AFTER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TAPER OFF...EXPECT A PERIOD OF
LOWERING CIGS AND POSSIBLY FOG. THIS A BIT TRICKY...SINCE IT WILL
BE DEPENDENT ON WHICH LOCATIONS RECEIVE RAINFALL...BUT WITH
CLEARING ALOFT POSSIBLE...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIFR
CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING IN AREAS WHICH DO GET
SOME RAIN.
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE ON FRIDAY...WITH LIFTING CIGS
AND VSBY DURING THE DAY AS SHOWERS TAPER OFF.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...VFR.
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH CHANCE -TSRA.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
QUIET CONDITIONS ON THE LAKES SHOULD CONTINUE WITH THE COLD LAKE
WATERS STABILIZING WINDS AND WAVES. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
ARE NOT EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MIGHT BE
DURING ANY THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LAKES TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...
DURING WHICH WINDS AND WAVES MAY PRODUCE HAZARDOUS BOATING
CONDITIONS.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WCH
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/WCH
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...WCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
259 PM EDT WED MAR 14 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE DROP SOUTH INTO THE AREA
TODAY AND DISSIPATE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE
TO INFLUENCE THE WEATHER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLIP SOUTH INTO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 145 PM WED...MINOR UPDATE FOR HOURLY TEMPS. DID RAISE MAX
TEMPS UP A FEW DEGS MOST AREAS.
/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 1130 AM WED...NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH UPDATE. STRATUS/FOG HAVE
DISSIPATED OVER COASTAL PLAINS AND EXPECTING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
UNTIL CU DEVELOPMENT OVER INLAND SECTIONS MID AFTN. LATEST RUC AND
HRRR MODELS INDICATE SOME ISOLD CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN SEA BREEZE
ZONE...THUS WILL KEEP CURRENT SLGT CHC POPS FOR THAT AREA. TEMPS
CONTINUE TO LAG OVER SRN COASTAL PLAINS WHERE STRATUS LIMITED
MORNING INSOLATION...BUT LATEST LAMP GDNC SUPPORTS TEMPS NEAR 80
THERE BY LATE AFTN.
WEAK WIND SHIFT WITH SFC TROF WILL HAVE LITTLE CONSEQUENCE BUT MAY
PROVIDE ADDITIONAL CONVERGENCE WITH SEA BREEZE ZONE FOR CONVECTIVE
INITIATION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM WEDNESDAY...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS EASTERN NC TONIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES WEST INTO
THE AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC. DUE TO EXPECTED STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING...I TRENDED OVERNIGHT LOWS TO THE COOLER MOS GUIDANCE WITH
READINGS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 50S. WOULD EXPECT POTENTIAL FOR FOG
TO DEVELOP LATE.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM WED...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN
COAST THURS NIGHT AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING SHORTWAVE/SURFACE LOW
PROGGED TO CROSS NORTH OF THE REGION ON SAT. SURFACE WINDS WILL
REMAIN SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM LATE FRI INTO SAT...ALLOWING
FOR WARM/MOIST AIR TO ADVECT INTO EASTERN NC. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY...WHICH COUPLED WITH
MOISTEN BOUNDARY LAYER WILL PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING. SPC CONTINUES TO LIST THE
REGION IN GENERAL THUNDER RISK FRI. GREATER CLOUD COVER FRI WILL
BRING TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER THAN THURS...HOWEVER STILL
APPROACH 80 F INLAND.
SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST FRI NIGHT AND PUSHES
OFF THE EAST COAST NEAR THE DELMARVA PENINSULA SAT MORNING. WEAK
SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP OFF THE COAST SAT WITH A WEAK BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT PROGGED TO SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN NC SAT AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING. SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL REMAIN
SOUTHWESTERLY THEN VEER NORTH AND NORTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT.
INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL BRING COOLER TEMPS SAT...MID 70S INLAND
TO LOW 70S ALONG THE COAST. KEPT POPS SAT NIGHT CONFINED TO COASTAL
ZONES ASSOCIATED WITH BEST CONVERGENCE ALONG SURFACE FRONT. TOTAL
QPF FOR THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN 0.10-0.20 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL MIGRATE SOUTH TOWARDS THE REGION SUN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL ADVECT SLIGHTLY LOWER THICKNESSES INTO THE
REGION...YIELDING TEMPS IN THE LOW 70S SUN TO MID/UPPER 70S MON AND
TUES. OVERNIGHT LOWS SUN AND MON WILL REMAIN MILD...LOWER 50S.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /18Z TODAY THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM WED...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR PREVAILING THROUGH THIS
EVENING. ISOLD TSTM CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH SEA BREEZE THIS AFTN
BUT NOT ENOUGH THREAT TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF
PATCHY FOG AND SUB VFR VISIBILITIES. UPS FOG TOOL INDICATES
POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG (<1 SM) ALL BUT KPGV WITH CROSSOVER TEMPS
BEING REACHED...BUT NOT ENOUGH FCST CONFIDENCE TO INDICATE IFR VSBYS
WITH THIS FCST ISSUANCE.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM WED...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OFF THE COAST. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL GUST NEAR 20 KNOTS
FRI AHEAD OF A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THAT WILL SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE
REGION SAT INTO EARLY SUN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FRI INDICATE
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO WARRANT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT CEILINGS TO LOWER TO MVFR FRI NIGHT AS THE FRONT
SLIDES SOUTH WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK
IN FROM THE NORTHEAST ON SUN WITH WINDS SHIFTING NE AND AVIATION
CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1130 AM WED...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE. WEAK WIND SHIFT WITH
SPEEDS 10 KT OR LESS EXPECTED OVER NRN HALF OF AREA WITH SFC TROF
DROPPING IN FROM N-NW. SRN SECTIONS WILL REMAIN S-SW. SEAS REMAINING
3 FT OR LESS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM WED...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SITUATED OFF THE NC COAST
ON THURS NIGHT AND FRI ALLOWING FOR SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW 10-15 KNOTS.
SEAS 1-3 FT WILL BUILD 2-4 FT FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS. A
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS THE WATERS SAT
AFTERNOON INTO SAT NIGHT...WITH WINDS VEERING NORTH THEN NORTHEAST
BEHIND THE FRONT. SEAS WILL BUILD 2-4 FT NEARSHORE TO 3 TO 5 FT FOR
THE OUTER WATERS SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC WILL BUILD SOUTH OVER THE WATERS SUN INTO MON
WITH NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND SEAS 2 TO 4 FT. SWAN AND
WAVEWATCH III WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG RANGE.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JBM
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...JBM/DAG
MARINE...JBM/DAG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
205 PM EDT WED MAR 14 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE DROP SOUTH INTO THE AREA
TODAY AND DISSIPATE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE
TO INFLUENCE THE WEATHER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLIP SOUTH INTO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 145 PM WED...MINOR UPDATE FOR HOURLY TEMPS. DID RAISE MAX
TEMPS UP A FEW DEGS MOST AREAS.
/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 1130 AM WED...NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH UPDATE. STRATUS/FOG HAVE
DISSIPATED OVER COASTAL PLAINS AND EXPECTING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
UNTIL CU DEVELOPMENT OVER INLAND SECTIONS MID AFTN. LATEST RUC AND
HRRR MODELS INDICATE SOME ISOLD CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN SEA BREEZE
ZONE...THUS WILL KEEP CURRENT SLGT CHC POPS FOR THAT AREA. TEMPS
CONTINUE TO LAG OVER SRN COASTAL PLAINS WHERE STRATUS LIMITED
MORNING INSOLATION...BUT LATEST LAMP GDNC SUPPORTS TEMPS NEAR 80
THERE BY LATE AFTN.
WEAK WIND SHIFT WITH SFC TROF WILL HAVE LITTLE CONSEQUENCE BUT MAY
PROVIDE ADDITIONAL CONVERGENCE WITH SEA BREEZE ZONE FOR CONVECTIVE
INITIATION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM WEDNESDAY...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS EASTERN NC TONIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES WEST INTO
THE AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC. DUE TO EXPECTED STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING...I TRENDED OVERNIGHT LOWS TO THE COOLER MOS GUIDANCE WITH
READINGS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 50S. WOULD EXPECT POTENTIAL FOR FOG
TO DEVELOP LATE.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WED...HIGH PRES WILL BE SITUATED OFF THE COAST THU
WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT PROVIDING FOR DRY WEATHER AND TEMPS
AROUND 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE U70S/L80S
INLAND TO M/U60S COAST...WHICH IS STILL SEVERAL DEGREES AWAY FROM
RECORD TEMPS FOR THE DAY WHICH IS 89 AT GREENVILLE AND NEW BERN
AND 79 AT CAPE HATTERAS. THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN FRI AND SAT
AS A COUPLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH RIDE OVER THE RIDGE. SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY WILL EXIST ACROSS THE REGION FRI WITH RETURN FLOW
MOISTURE INCREASING AND GRADUAL HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT TO ALLOW FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS TO DEVELOP MAINLY ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN
DURING THE AFTERNOON. BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
DEVELOP FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA AND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPS S ACROSS THE REGION.
GREATER CLOUD COVERAGE FRI WILL BRING TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES
COOLER THAN THU WITH ADDITIONAL SLIGHT COOLING SAT...MAINLY
M/U70S INLAND FRI AND M70S SAT TO M/U60S COAST EACH DAY.
LONGWAVE RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE ERN CONUS SUN THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM BUT MODELS STILL STRUGGLING WITH THE
EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH AS IT MIGRATES SWD ACROSS THE WRN N
ATLANTIC. LATEST MODELS TRENDING FARTHER OFFSHORE WITH THE TROUGH
OR POSSIBLE UPPER LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW SO WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY
SUN-TUE AT THIS TIME. HIGH PRES RIDGES IN FROM OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST BRINGING NE/ELY ONSHORE FLOW HOLDING TEMPS IN THE
L/M70S INLAND TO L/M60S COAST DESPITE STRONG UPPER RIDGING.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /18Z TODAY THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM WED...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR PREVAILING THROUGH THIS
EVENING. ISOLD TSTM CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH SEA BREEZE THIS AFTN
BUT NOT ENOUGH THREAT TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF
PATCHY FOG AND SUB VFR VISIBILITIES. UPS FOG TOOL INDICATES
POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG (<1 SM) ALL BUT KPGV WITH CROSSOVER TEMPS
BEING REACHED...BUT NOT ENOUGH FCST CONFIDENCE TO INDICATE IFR VSBYS
WITH THIS FCST ISSUANCE.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM WED...HIGH PRES WILL ALLOW VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE
THU AND FRI ALTHOUGH COULD SEE PATCHY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING
FOG. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS EXPECTED FRI NIGHT AND SAT WHICH
WILL LIKELY BRING SOME REDUCED CIGS OR VSBYS. LONGWAVE UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE W SUN WITH SFC HIGH PRES RIDGING IN
FROM THE NORTHEAST SUN ALLOWING FOR PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1130 AM WED...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE. WEAK WIND SHIFT WITH
SPEEDS 10 KT OR LESS EXPECTED OVER NRN HALF OF AREA WITH SFC TROF
DROPPING IN FROM N-NW. SRN SECTIONS WILL REMAIN S-SW. SEAS REMAINING
3 FT OR LESS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM WED...WEAK HIGH PRES WILL BE SITUATED OFF THE COAST
THU WITH LIGHT SLY WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS. THE HIGH SLIDES
FARTHER OFFSHORE LATE FRI AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW.
GRADIENTS TIGHTEN IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT TO 10-20 KT BY LATE FRI
AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY SAT. THE FRONT CURRENTLY PROGGED TO PUSH
S ACROSS THE WATERS SAT EVENING WITH NELY FLOW DEVELOPING SUN.
SEAS GENERALLY 2-3 FT THU TO FRI AM...THEN BUILD TO 3-5 FT LATE
FRI INTO SAT. AN EXTENDED NE FETCH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WRN NORTH
ATLANTIC LATE SAT AND SUN WHICH WILL MAINTAIN 3-5 FT SEAS ACROSS
THE WATERS AND COULD REACH MINIMAL SCA CRITERIA LATE SUN IF AN
ARE OF LOW PRES DEVELOPS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS AS DEPICTED BY
THE GFS...HOWEVER LONG RANGE MODELS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
DETAILS IN THE PATTERN OFF THE COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JBM
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...JBM/SK
MARINE...JBM/SK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1155 AM EDT WED MAR 14 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE DROP SOUTH INTO THE AREA
TODAY AND DISSIPATE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE
TO INFLUENCE THE WEATHER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLIP SOUTH INTO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1130 AM WED...NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH UPDATE. STRATUS/FOG HAVE
DISSIPATED OVER COASTAL PLAINS AND EXPECTING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
UNTIL CU DEVELOPMENT OVER INLAND SECTIONS MID AFTN. LATEST RUC AND
HRRR MODELS INDICATE SOME ISOLD CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN SEA BREEZE
ZONE...THUS WILL KEEP CURRENT SLGT CHC POPS FOR THAT AREA. TEMPS
CONTINUE TO LAG OVER SRN COASTAL PLAINS WHERE STRATUS LIMITED
MORNING INSOLATION...BUT LATEST LAMP GDNC SUPPORTS TEMPS NEAR 80
THERE BY LATE AFTN.
WEAK WIND SHIFT WITH SFC TROF WILL HAVE LITTLE CONSEQUENCE BUT MAY
PROVIDE ADDITIONAL CONVERGENCE WITH SEA BREEZE ZONE FOR CONVECTIVE
INITIATION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM WEDNESDAY...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS EASTERN NC TONIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES WEST INTO
THE AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC. DUE TO EXPECTED STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING...I TRENDED OVERNIGHT LOWS TO THE COOLER MOS GUIDANCE WITH
READINGS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 50S. WOULD EXPECT POTENTIAL FOR FOG
TO DEVELOP LATE.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WED...HIGH PRES WILL BE SITUATED OFF THE COAST THU
WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT PROVIDING FOR DRY WEATHER AND TEMPS
AROUND 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE U70S/L80S
INLAND TO M/U60S COAST...WHICH IS STILL SEVERAL DEGREES AWAY FROM
RECORD TEMPS FOR THE DAY WHICH IS 89 AT GREENVILLE AND NEW BERN
AND 79 AT CAPE HATTERAS. THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN FRI AND SAT
AS A COUPLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH RIDE OVER THE RIDGE. SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY WILL EXIST ACROSS THE REGION FRI WITH RETURN FLOW
MOISTURE INCREASING AND GRADUAL HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT TO ALLOW FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS TO DEVELOP MAINLY ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN
DURING THE AFTERNOON. BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
DEVELOP FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA AND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPS S ACROSS THE REGION.
GREATER CLOUD COVERAGE FRI WILL BRING TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES
COOLER THAN THU WITH ADDITIONAL SLIGHT COOLING SAT...MAINLY
M/U70S INLAND FRI AND M70S SAT TO M/U60S COAST EACH DAY.
LONGWAVE RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE ERN CONUS SUN THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM BUT MODELS STILL STRUGGLING WITH THE
EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH AS IT MIGRATES SWD ACROSS THE WRN N
ATLANTIC. LATEST MODELS TRENDING FARTHER OFFSHORE WITH THE TROUGH
OR POSSIBLE UPPER LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW SO WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY
SUN-TUE AT THIS TIME. HIGH PRES RIDGES IN FROM OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST BRINGING NE/ELY ONSHORE FLOW HOLDING TEMPS IN THE
L/M70S INLAND TO L/M60S COAST DESPITE STRONG UPPER RIDGING.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /06Z TODAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
AS OF 705 AM WEDNESDAY...DRIER AIR HAS MOVED INTO EASTERN NC WITH
CLEAR SKIES. WINDS NEVER FULLY DECOUPLED OVERNIGHT SO THREAT FOR
DENSE FOG IS OVER ALTHOUGH WE COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
VISIBILITIES IN LIGHT FOG THROUGH 13Z. ISOLATED SEA BREEZE
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE DURING PEAK HEATING IF CELLS CAN OVERCOME
DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS AND DRY DOWN SLOPE FLOW AT THE SURFACE.
EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD
LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FOG AND SUB VFR VISIBILITIES.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM WED...HIGH PRES WILL ALLOW VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE
THU AND FRI ALTHOUGH COULD SEE PATCHY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING
FOG. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS EXPECTED FRI NIGHT AND SAT WHICH
WILL LIKELY BRING SOME REDUCED CIGS OR VSBYS. LONGWAVE UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE W SUN WITH SFC HIGH PRES RIDGING IN
FROM THE NORTHEAST SUN ALLOWING FOR PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1130 AM WED...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE. WEAK WIND SHIFT WITH
SPEEDS 10 KT OR LESS EXPECTED OVER NRN HALF OF AREA WITH SFC TROF
DROPPING IN FROM N-NW. SRN SECTIONS WILL REMAIN S-SW. SEAS REMAINING
3 FT OR LESS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM WED...WEAK HIGH PRES WILL BE SITUATED OFF THE COAST
THU WITH LIGHT SLY WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS. THE HIGH SLIDES
FARTHER OFFSHORE LATE FRI AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW.
GRADIENTS TIGHTEN IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT TO 10-20 KT BY LATE FRI
AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY SAT. THE FRONT CURRENTLY PROGGED TO PUSH
S ACROSS THE WATERS SAT EVENING WITH NELY FLOW DEVELOPING SUN.
SEAS GENERALLY 2-3 FT THU TO FRI AM...THEN BUILD TO 3-5 FT LATE
FRI INTO SAT. AN EXTENDED NE FETCH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WRN NORTH
ATLANTIC LATE SAT AND SUN WHICH WILL MAINTAIN 3-5 FT SEAS ACROSS
THE WATERS AND COULD REACH MINIMAL SCA CRITERIA LATE SUN IF AN
ARE OF LOW PRES DEVELOPS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS AS DEPICTED BY
THE GFS...HOWEVER LONG RANGE MODELS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
DETAILS IN THE PATTERN OFF THE COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JBM
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...JME/SK
MARINE...JBM/SK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
325 AM EDT WED MAR 14 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WORK WEEK RESULTING IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 305 AM WEDNESDAY...
SKIES ARE CLEAR ACROSS CENTRAL NC EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO SUPPORT SOME WEAK
DISTURBANCES ALOFT AND A COUPLE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHWEST VA. WHILE THE AIRMASS EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS IS QUITE A BIT DRIER THIS EVENING...THE 00Z KGSO RAOB DID
SHOW AROUND 500 J/KG OF SBCAPE...SO WE CANT ENTIRELY RULE OUT THAT
THESE SHOWERS COULD MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT. HOWEVER...THE
PROBABILITY SEEMS MUCH TOO LOW FOR MENTION IN THE FORECAST THIS
MORNING. THE OTHER CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG PRIOR TO
SUNRISE. WHILE VISIBILITIES HAVE NOT DROPPED ACROSS NC...FOG IS
BEING REPORTED IN PORTIONS OF SC AND THE HRRR AVIATION FIELDS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST FOG WILL DEVELOP NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN
PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOUR. LIGHT STIRRING
OF SURFACE WINDS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE LEE TROUGH IS LIKELY
STAVING OFF FOG FOR THE MOMENT...BUT DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE DOWN
TO LESS THAN 5 DEGREES EVERYWHERE...SO WE WILL CONTINUE THE FORECAST
OF LOCALLY DENSE FOG ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST.
TODAY...THE 850MB RIDGE TO OUR SOUTHWEST WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO AMPLIFY JUST
EAST OF THE MS VALLEY. HOWEVER...ON THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE RIDGE...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTINUE TO BE MODESTLY STEEP
AROUND 6.5 TO 7 C/KM. DEWPOINTS IN THE TRIAD SHOULD DROP INTO THE
UPPER 40S WHICH WILL KEEP MLCAPE LOW. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT
DEWPOINTS WILL HOLD IN THE MID 50S IN THE SOUTHEAST...AND SREF
PROBABILITIES OF 500 J/KG OF SBCAPE AND MLCAPE ARE ABOVE 80
PERCENT. THE MSLP GRADIENT WILL BE WEAK WITH VERY LITTLE LOW LEVEL
FORCING FOR ACCENT...BUT WITH GUIDANCE GIVING LOW TO MID 80S FOR
HIGHS...THE SEA BREEZE MAY BE ABLE TO PUSH INLAND TOWARD THE
SANDHILLS AND PROVIDE AT LEAST SOME LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. ANY
SHOWERS OR STORMS SHOULD BE TOO ISOLATED FOR A MENTION OF SLIGHT
CHANCE...BUT THE ABOVE REASONING ALONG WITH SOME HI-RES WRF MODEL
SUPPORT WOULD SUGGEST IT CANT BE RULED OUT.
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN PLAYING CATCH UP TO THE WARMING TREND
THE PAYS COUPLE OF DAYS IT SEEMS...SO WE WILL NUDGE HIGHS UP TO
81-83. RECORD HIGHS ARE 86/82 AT RDU/GSO.
FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT...THROUGH SLIGHTLY LOWER
DEWPOINTS MAY MAKE FOG MORE PATCHY AND FOCUSED OVER THE EAST. LOWS
IN THE MID 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 AM WEDNESDAY...
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL INCH NORTHEASTWARD THURSDAY WITH THE RIDGE
AXIS FORECAST TO LIE ACROSS GA...SC...AND SOUTHEASTERN NC. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS REMAIN MOSTLY UNCAPPED BUT DEEPER MIXING WILL HELP TO
LIMIT MLCAPE...AND WEAK FORCING WILL PRECLUDE ANY POP AT LEAST
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. OPERATIONAL MODELS SHOW WEAK UPPER
DISTURANCES DRIFTING ATOP THE UPPER RIDGE AND THEN DIPPING SOUTHEAST
INTO NC/VA THURSDAY EVENING. SOME OF THE LONGER RANGE HI-RES WRF
MODELS SHOW CONVECTION UPSTREAM OF THE MOUNTAINS MOVING INTO WESTERN
NC/VA LATE AFTERNOON AND APPROACHING THE WESTERN PIEDMONT BY 00Z
FRIDAY. TIMING OF THE WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES IS DIFFICULT TO
FORECAST...BUT THE FASTEST NAM SOLUTION WOULD BARELY HAVE ANY OF THE
CONVECTION INTO THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT BY 21-00Z...SO WE WILL HOLD
OFF ON POPS UNTIL AFTER 21Z. THERE SHOULD BE MORE CUMULI AROUND
THURSDAYS AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE INCREASES NEAR THE TOP OF THE
BOUNDARY LAYER. AFTERNOON 1000-850MB THICKNESSES ARE FORECAST TO
RISE 3-5 METERS THURSDAY...SO HIGHS SHOULD ONLY BE A DEGREE OR TWO
WARMER AT BEST...82-85. -BLS
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: THE WEAK SOUTHERN-STREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER NRN MEXICO WILL APPROACH THE SRN
APPALACHIANS THURSDAY NIGHT... PUSHING THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS TO
OUR SE... WHILE AT THE SURFACE... LEE TROUGHING SHARPENS OVER THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT. AFTER A BRIEF RESPITE FROM THE HIGH
PRECIPITABLE-WATER AIR TODAY... VALUES OVER 200% OF NORMAL CURRENTLY
OVER TX ARE EXPECTED TO SURGE BACK NORTHWARD THROUGH THE NATION`S
MIDSECTION BY TONIGHT... THEN TRANSLATE EASTWARD... REACHING CENTRAL
NC THURSDAY NIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT THAT CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY. THE WEAK WIND FIELD THROUGH
THE COLUMN (WHICH WILL REDUCE THE DEGREE OF DPVA CROSSING CENTRAL
NC) WILL YIELD JUST MINOR FORCING FOR ASCENT... AND THIS SHOULD
LIMIT COVERAGE SOMEWHAT DESPITE THE MOISTURE. BUT MODELS INDICATE AT
LEAST WEAK INSTABILITY... MLCAPE AROUND 200 J/KG THURSDAY NIGHT...
BECOMING MODERATE BY RISING TO 800-1200 J/KG MAINLY IN THE
CENTRAL/ERN CWA ON FRIDAY... AND THIS MAY PARTIALLY COMPENSATE FOR
THE WEAK DYNAMICS... ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN QUITE
WEAK AT JUST 15-20 KTS. WILL BRING SMALL CHANCE POPS INTO THE
WESTERN/CENTRAL CWA THURSDAY NIGHT... HOLDING POPS A BIT UNDER
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE GIVEN THAT SREF PROBABILITIES OF MEASURABLE
PRECIP ARE 30% OR LOWER. THESE PROBABILITIES CLIMB TO 50-70% DURING
FRIDAY AS THE VERY MOIST COLUMN AND DAYTIME HEATING/DESTABILIZATION
COMBINE WITH WEAK BUT TRACKABLE FORCING FEATURES... INCLUDING
IMPROVING UPPER DIVERGENCE AS THE MID-UPPER LEVEL WAVE DROPS INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NW. WILL RAISE POPS TO GOOD CHANCE BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON... HIGHEST ALONG HIGHWAY 1 EAST. EXPECT A GRADUAL
DIMINISHING OF POPS NNW TO SSE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING
AND WITH MODELS INDICATING LOWER-PW AIR WORKING INTO THE NW CWA...
DUE IN PART TO THE BUILDING RIDGE JUST TO OUR WEST FROM THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES TO THE CENTRAL/WRN GULF... A RESULT OF THE STRONG
LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. BUT WE SHOULD RETAIN
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS
SITS OVERHEAD WITH SURFACE TROUGHING HOLDING IN PLACE THROUGH THE
PIEDMONT. LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
AROUND 80... ALTHOUGH WILL ADD A DEGREE OR TWO TO ALREADY-WARM LOW
TEMPS... BRINGING THEM INTO THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60. -GIH
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM WEDNESDAY...
FOR SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT: RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE VARIED IN THEIR
HANDLING OF A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE LOCATED OVER ONTARIO THURSDAY
NIGHT... WHICH DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY INTO
THE NORTHEAST AND NORTHERN MIDATLANTIC STATES. AFTER AMPLIFYING THIS
FEATURE STRONGLY TOWARD THE SW IN YESTERDAY`S RUNS... THE ECMWF IS
NOW MUCH WEAKER AND HOLDS IT WELL TO OUR NORTH WITHOUT ABSORBING THE
SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE OVER THE CAROLINAS... WHILE THE GFS IS NOW
STRONGER WITH A PROMINENT WAVE DROPPING SOUTHWARD TOWARD NC. GIVEN
THE STRONG TROUGHING IN THE WEST AND RESULTANT AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE
RIDGING EAST OF THE MISS VALLEY TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS... THE
WEAKER AND FARTHER-NORTH SOLUTION APPEARS MORE LIKELY. EXPECT THE
ASSOCIATED BACKDOOR SURFACE FRONT TO HOLD TO OUR NORTH THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. PW VALUES WILL LIKELY HAVE FALLEN BUT SHOULD STILL
BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CAPPING EVIDENT. SO DESPITE THE
LIGHT WIND FIELD THROUGH THE COLUMN (INCLUDING VERY WEAK LOW LEVEL
MASS CONVERGENCE ALONG A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH) AND LACK OF
DYNAMICS... PATCHY SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN CWA WHERE MODELS INDICATE MARGINAL INSTABILITY
(700-900 J/KG). THICKNESSES STAY 40-45 METERS ABOVE NORMAL
SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 70S EVEN WITH VARIABLY CLOUDY
SKIES. LOWS 54-58 SATURDAY NIGHT AS COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE NORTHEAST STATES BEGINS TO WORK SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD WITH THE LEADING EDGE APPROACHING NC.
FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: EXPECT A SLIGHT COOLDOWN (AS THE SURFACE
HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE NNE) BUT STILL ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPS FOR
CENTRAL NC THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE BIG PICTURE REMAINS CLEAR...
BUT SOLUTIONS VARY REGARDING THE FORECAST DETAILS. LONGWAVE
TROUGHING CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OVER THE WESTERN STATES... WHILE
RIDGING HOLDS OVER THE MISS VALLEY INTO THE APPALACHIANS AND THE
BAGGY NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST-ORIENTED TROUGH SITS FROM NEAR OR JUST
OFF THE CAROLINA COAST INTO THE NW ATLANTIC. THE GFS`S STRONGER
TROUGH PUSHING TO OUR SW MEANS DRY WEATHER FOR CENTRAL NC... WHEREAS
THE ECMWF`S LINGERING MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS AND SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS YIELDS A WETTER SOLUTION FOR OUR AREA. WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE IN SUCH WEAKLY FORCED FEATURES AND WITH LITTLE RUN-TO-RUN
MODEL CONSISTENCY... WILL KEEP ANY POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE OR LOWER
FOR NOW. THICKNESSES AND THE LONGWAVE PATTERN SUPPORT CONTINUED WARM
TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S. -GIH
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 150 AM WEDNESDAY...
LIGHT WIND AND RELATIVELY HIGH SURFACE DEWPOINTS SHOULD LEAD TO FOG
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. WHILE VSBYS HAVE YET TO DROP AS OF 06Z...
LIFR VSBYS ARE BEING REPORTED OVER SC AND NEAR TERM GUIDANCE SHOWS
FOG DEVELOPING NORTHWARD OUT OF SC TO KFAY AND AT LEAST NEAR
KRWI/KRDU. THUS..THE CURRENT TAF WILL REFLECT IFR VSBYS AT THOSE
SITES BY 09Z...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LIFR VSBYS BETWEEN 09Z AND
13Z. CONFIDENCE IN DENSE FOG IS HIGHEST AT KFAY. IN THE
TRIAD...LOWER DEWPOINTS SHOULD PRECLUDE VSBYS DROPPING INTO
IFR...BUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE PRIOR TO 13Z.
DURING THE DAY...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA AND THE SLP GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
OUTLOOK...
IMPACTS INCLUDE LOCAL MORNING FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN OVERNIGHT
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTH. CURRENT LONG-TERM GUIDANCE SUPPORTS A GOOD POTENTIAL FOR IFR
CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING IN
LINGERING MOISTURE ON A NORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW.
&&
.CLIMATE...
HERE ARE UPCOMING HIGH TEMPERATURES RECORDS...
AT RDU:
03/14: 86 IN 1990
03/15: 87 IN 1973
03/16: 86 IN 1945
AT GSO:
03/14: 82 IN 1990
03/15: 87 IN 1967
03/16: 85 IN 1945
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BLAES
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...SMITH/HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...SMITH/DJF
CLIMATE...HARTFIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
305 AM EDT WED MAR 14 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WORK WEEK RESULTING IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 305 AM WEDNESDAY...
SKIES ARE CLEAR ACROSS CENTRAL NC EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO SUPPORT SOME WEAK
DISTURBANCES ALOFT AND A COUPLE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHWEST VA. WHILE THE AIRMASS EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS IS QUITE A BIT DRIER THIS EVENING...THE 00Z KGSO RAOB DID
SHOW AROUND 500 J/KG OF SBCAPE...SO WE CANT ENTIRELY RULE OUT THAT
THESE SHOWERS COULD MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT. HOWEVER...THE
PROBABILITY SEEMS MUCH TOO LOW FOR MENTION IN THE FORECAST THIS
MORNING. THE OTHER CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG PRIOR TO
SUNRISE. WHILE VISIBILITIES HAVE NOT DROPPED ACROSS NC...FOG IS
BEING REPORTED IN PORTIONS OF SC AND THE HRRR AVIATION FIELDS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST FOG WILL DEVELOP NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN
PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOUR. LIGHT STIRRING
OF SURFACE WINDS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE LEE TROUGH IS LIKELY
STAVING OFF FOG FOR THE MOMENT...BUT DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE DOWN
TO LESS THAN 5 DEGREES EVERYWHERE...SO WE WILL CONTINUE THE FORECAST
OF LOCALLY DENSE FOG ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST.
TODAY...THE 850MB RIDGE TO OUR SOUTHWEST WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO AMPLIFY JUST
EAST OF THE MS VALLEY. HOWEVER...ON THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE RIDGE...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTINUE TO BE MODESTLY STEEP
AROUND 6.5 TO 7 C/KM. DEWPOINTS IN THE TRIAD SHOULD DROP INTO THE
UPPER 40S WHICH WILL KEEP MLCAPE LOW. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT
DEWPOINTS WILL HOLD IN THE MID 50S IN THE SOUTHEAST...AND SREF
PROBABILITIES OF 500 J/KG OF SBCAPE AND MLCAPE ARE ABOVE 80
PERCENT. THE MSLP GRADIENT WILL BE WEAK WITH VERY LITTLE LOW LEVEL
FORCING FOR ACCENT...BUT WITH GUIDANCE GIVING LOW TO MID 80S FOR
HIGHS...THE SEA BREEZE MAY BE ABLE TO PUSH INLAND TOWARD THE
SANDHILLS AND PROVIDE AT LEAST SOME LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. ANY
SHOWERS OR STORMS SHOULD BE TOO ISOLATED FOR A MENTION OF SLIGHT
CHANCE...BUT THE ABOVE REASONING ALONG WITH SOME HI-RES WRF MODEL
SUPPORT WOULD SUGGEST IT CANT BE RULED OUT.
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN PLAYING CATCH UP TO THE WARMING TREND
THE PAYS COUPLE OF DAYS IT SEEMS...SO WE WILL NUDGE HIGHS UP TO
81-83. RECORD HIGHS ARE 86/82 AT RDU/GSO.
FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT...THROUGH SLIGHTLY LOWER
DEWPOINTS MAY MAKE FOG MORE PATCHY AND FOCUSED OVER THE EAST. LOWS
IN THE MID 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 AM WEDNESDAY...
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL INCH NORTHEASTWARD THURSDAY WITH THE RIDGE
AXIS FORECAST TO LIE ACROSS GA...SC...AND SOUTHEASTERN NC. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS REMAIN MOSTLY UNCAPPED BUT DEEPER MIXING WILL HELP TO
LIMIT MLCAPE...AND WEAK FORCING WILL PRECLUDE ANY POP AT LEAST
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. OPERATIONAL MODELS SHOW WEAK UPPER
DISTURANCES DRIFTING ATOP THE UPPER RIDGE AND THEN DIPPING SOUTHEAST
INTO NC/VA THURSDAY EVENING. SOME OF THE LONGER RANGE HI-RES WRF
MODELS SHOW CONVECTION UPSTREAM OF THE MOUNTAINS MOVING INTO WESTERN
NC/VA LATE AFTERNOON AND APPROACHING THE WESTERN PIEDMONT BY 00Z
FRIDAY. TIMING OF THE WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES IS DIFFICULT TO
FORECAST...BUT THE FASTEST NAM SOLUTION WOULD BARELY HAVE ANY OF THE
CONVECTION INTO THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT BY 21-00Z...SO WE WILL HOLD
OFF ON POPS UNTIL AFTER 21Z. THERE SHOULD BE MORE CUMULI AROUND
THURSDAYS AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE INCREASES NEAR THE TOP OF THE
BOUNDARY LAYER. AFTERNOON 1000-850MB THICKNESSES ARE FORECAST TO
RISE 3-5 METERS THURSDAY...SO HIGHS SHOULD ONLY BE A DEGREE OR TWO
WARMER AT BEST...82-85.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 110 PM TUESDAY...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ORIENTED WEST-EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
RETREATS EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC WITH INCREASING MOISTURE RETURN INTO
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
INITIALLY THE BUILDING MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL
BLOCK THIS MOISTURE AND A VERY WARM DAY IS ON TAP THURSDAY.
THICKNESSES AND MOS GUIDANCE HAVE TRENDED UPWARDS...WITH LOW 80S NOW
WIDESPREAD AND NEAR RECORD MID 80S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE
HIGH MOVES EAST ALLOWING MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW. IN
ADDITION...AN UPPER WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE RIDGE AND A WEAK BACK DOOR
FRONT WILL BE SAGGING SOUTH INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. COULD SEE SOME
PATCHY LIGHT RAIN IN THE WEST LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...OTHERWISE
BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY AND MILD WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S.
LONG-TERM GUIDANCE TRENDS SHOW A TENDENCY TO BE FARTHER WEST WITH
THE RIDGE AXIS ALOFT...WITH LOWER HEIGHTS OFFSHORE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED STRONGEST WITH UPPER-LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE MOVING OVER THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE...WHICH IN TURN PUSHES A
STRONGER COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
EARLY IN THIS LONG-TERM PERIOD. THE GFS AND CANADIAN TREND WEAKER
AND GENERALLY SLOWER...AND THOUGH THE GFS HAS TRENDED LOWER WITH ITS
HEIGHTS ALOFT OFFSHORE...FRONTAL CONVERGENCE STILL APPEARS WEAKER
WITH WEAKER MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL FORCING THAT LINGERS LONGER INTO
THE WEEKEND.
GFSX MOS ENSEMBLE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE CONSISTENTLY ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...AND EVEN INTO SUNDAY...
DIMINISHING BY MONDAY AS DRIER AIR SHOULD GRADUALLY MOVE INTO
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST BEHIND ANY
SURFACE BOUNDARY. THE PATTERN OF DIMINISHING 850MB THETA-E FROM THE
NORTHEAST ON THE ECMWF DURING THE LATER PART OF THE WEEKEND APPEARS
REASONABLE...WITH MAINLY THE TIMING IN QUESTION. WILL FOCUS CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS HIGHER IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT AND TOWARD THE VIRGINIA
BORDER FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGHER CHANCES TRANSITIONING SOUTH
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTH AND
MORE STABLE AIR GRADUALLY MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH. GIVEN SURFACE
RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES INTO THE EASTERN GULF...DO NOT
EXPECT ANY PERIOD TO BE A WASHOUT...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS OR
PERIODS OF SHOWERS PRIMARILY EXPECTED. ABNORMALLY WARM THICKNESSES
AND COOLING ALOFT WITH TROUGHING COULD LEAD TO STEEP ENOUGH LAPSE
RATES TO PROVIDE FOR THUNDER...AS NOTED ON COARSE ECMWF MODEL
SOUNDINGS.
COOLER AIR WILL BE IN PLACE TUESDAY BUT THERE ARE CONSIDERABLE
DIFFERENCES IN MODELS CONCERNING SMALLER SCALE DETAILS WHICH WILL
DETERMINE SKY COVER AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS IN THE
EAST...WHICH WILL BE NEARER IN PROXIMITY TO AN UPPER LOW OFFSHORE.
WILL HAVE A DRY FORECAST WITH A LOW PERCENTAGE OF CLOUD COVER
LEADING TO HIGHS IN THE MID 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 150 AM WEDNESDAY...
LIGHT WIND AND RELATIVELY HIGH SURFACE DEWPOINTS SHOULD LEAD TO FOG
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. WHILE VSBYS HAVE YET TO DROP AS OF 06Z...
LIFR VSBYS ARE BEING REPORTED OVER SC AND NEAR TERM GUIDANCE SHOWS
FOG DEVELOPING NORTHWARD OUT OF SC TO KFAY AND AT LEAST NEAR
KRWI/KRDU. THUS..THE CURRENT TAF WILL REFLECT IFR VSBYS AT THOSE
SITES BY 09Z...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LIFR VSBYS BETWEEN 09Z AND
13Z. CONFIDENCE IN DENSE FOG IS HIGHEST AT KFAY. IN THE
TRIAD...LOWER DEWPOINTS SHOULD PRECLUDE VSBYS DROPPING INTO
IFR...BUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE PRIOR TO 13Z.
DURING THE DAY...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA AND THE SLP GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
OUTLOOK...
IMPACTS INCLUDE LOCAL MORNING FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN OVERNIGHT
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTH. CURRENT LONG-TERM GUIDANCE SUPPORTS A GOOD POTENTIAL FOR IFR
CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING IN
LINGERING MOISTURE ON A NORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW.
&&
.CLIMATE...
HERE ARE UPCOMING HIGH TEMPERATURES RECORDS...
AT RDU:
03/14: 86 IN 1990
03/15: 87 IN 1973
03/16: 86 IN 1945
AT GSO:
03/14: 82 IN 1990
03/15: 87 IN 1967
03/16: 85 IN 1945
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BLAES
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...DJF/MLM
AVIATION...SMITH/DJF
CLIMATE...HARTFIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS FORT WORTH TX
105 PM CDT WED MAR 14 2012
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...LOW VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE
OVER ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THIS EVENING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES AND MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST
CONCERNS.
REGARDING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...MORNING HOURLY RUNS OF THE HRRR
CONSISTENTLY FORECAST THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. THE NAM SEEMS TO BE ON BOARD WITH THIS
SOLUTION AS WELL...HOWEVER A 1650Z AIRCRAFT SOUNDING AT KDFW
INDICATED THAT A SUBSTANTIAL CAP REMAINS IN PLACE AT THE H850
LEVEL. ASSUMING THIS SOUNDING IS REPRESENTATIVE...WE WOULD NEED TO
EITHER WARM UP 10 DEG F OR SUBSTANTIALLY LIFT THE CAP FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP NEAR THE METROPLEX THIS AFTERNOON. BOTH
OF THESE SCENARIOS LOOK UNLIKELY FOR TODAY...SO WILL LEAVE TSTMS
OUT OF THE TAFS AT THIS TIME AND MONITOR FOR DEVELOPMENT.
REGARDING CIGS...GUIDANCE ONCE AGAIN BRINGS IFR FLIGHT CATEGORY
RESTRICTIONS TO AREA TAF SITES AROUND SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING.
BECAUSE OUR ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT GOING TO CHANGE MUCH
IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HRS OPTED TO GO AHEAD WITH A FORECAST SIMILAR
TO WHAT WAS OBSERVED THIS MORNING. THIS MORNING CIGS STRUGGLED TO
FALL BELOW 2 KFT...SO MAINTAINED AN OPTIMISTIC FORECAST KEEPING
CIGS ABOVE 2 KFT AROUND SUNRISE. OTHERWISE THINK CIGS WILL REMAIN
LOW VFR FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
CAVANAUGH
&&
.UPDATE...
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING STARTED OUT PRETTY WARM FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL AGAIN TODAY AND THUS IT WILL AGAIN BE
TOUGH TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THERE ARE MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THIS MORNING WHICH
SHOULD YIELD SLIGHTLY WARMER LOW LEVEL TEMPS LATER TODAY. WITH
WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING OVERHEAD AND A RELATIVELY STRONGER
SHORTWAVE EVIDENT NEAR THE EL PASO AREA...WILL INCLUDE A MENTION
FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ONCE AGAIN...IF A STORM CAN DEVELOP...IT WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
BECOME STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE. OTHERWISE...ADJUSTED
TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES IN THE WEST WHERE THICK CLOUD
COVER SHOULD PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
82/JLD
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 AM CDT WED MAR 14 2012/
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
LEAD TO ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN
PLACE...THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS AS TEMPERATURES APPROACH DEWPOINT READINGS. IN
FACT THE LAST FEW HRRR CYCLES HAVE HINTED AT LOWERING VISIBILITIES
ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA PRIOR TO SUNRISE. HOWEVER...WITH WINDS
REMAINING MAINLY IN THE 10-15 MPH RANGE...FEEL WE WILL BE DEALING
MAINLY WITH LOW STRATUS AND SURFACE VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN
OVERALL OKAY.
THE NEXT CHALLENGE WILL BE POPS FOR NOW THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THE
ATMOSPHERE IS UNSTABLE TODAY WITH MODEL FORECAST SB CAPE APPROACHING
1500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. NAM ALSO ERODES THE CAP ALMOST
COMPLETELY BY MID AFTERNOON...WHILE GFS HOLDS ONTO A GOOD AMOUNT
OF CIN. BELIEVE THAT WITH THE LACK OF A TRIGGER OR ANY UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT...CONVECTION WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME TODAY AND WILL
KEEP POPS BELOW 20 PERCENT WITHOUT ANY MENTION OF PRECIP IN THE
FORECAST. A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE WILL THEN PASS OVERHEAD DURING THE
DAY TOMORROW. FEEL THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF AT LEAST
ISOLATED STORMS. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE 20 POPS IN AREAWIDE AND REFINE
IF NEEDED LATER. THE UPPER DISTURBANCE SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA
ALONG WITH THE ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION THURSDAY NIGHT.
BY FRIDAY IT LOOKS LIKE THE RIDGE WILL BE TOO STRONG FOR
SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES. ONE THING TO KEEP AN EYE ON WILL BE
DRYLINE DEVELOPMENT TO OUR NORTHWEST FRIDAY EVENING. AT THIS TIME
IT LOOKS LIKE ANY ACTIVITY THAT GETS GOING SHOULD DIMINISH BEFORE
REACHING THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. IF ANYTHING HOLDS TOGETHER AN
UPWARD ADJUSTMENT OF POPS MAY BE NEEDED LATE FRIDAY FOR THE
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY BREAK DOWN OVER THE WEEKEND
AS A LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY DURING PEAK HEATING IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN
CHANCES WILL THEN INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
UPPER TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE REGION. GFS AND ECMWF
ARE SIMILAR WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM WITH ONLY MINOR
VARIATIONS IN THE TIMING. LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM
SHOULD LEAD TO WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION BY MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT.
MODELS ARE SHOWING NEGATIVE TILT...AND RESPECTIVE MODEL SOUNDINGS
AND HODOGRAPHS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. IT
IS STILL FAR TOO EARLY FOR ANY SPECIFICS BUT CERTAINLY WORTH
WATCHING AS THE FIRST DAYS OF SPRING DRAW NEAR. LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE THEN POINTS TOWARDS TEMPERATURES FINALLY RETURNING TO
NEAR-NORMAL AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
UPPER TROUGH SHOVES EAST OF THE AREA AND THE NEXT FRONT MOVES
THROUGH.
30
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 77 66 78 66 77 / 10 10 20 10 10
WACO, TX 78 67 78 64 77 / 10 10 20 10 10
PARIS, TX 78 62 77 60 77 / 10 10 20 20 10
DENTON, TX 77 67 78 64 77 / 10 10 20 10 10
MCKINNEY, TX 77 67 77 65 77 / 10 10 20 20 10
DALLAS, TX 77 67 78 65 77 / 10 10 20 10 10
TERRELL, TX 78 66 78 64 77 / 10 10 20 20 10
CORSICANA, TX 78 65 78 64 78 / 10 10 20 10 10
TEMPLE, TX 78 66 78 64 77 / 10 10 20 10 10
MINERAL WELLS, TX 76 63 79 63 77 / 10 10 20 10 10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
/
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS FORT WORTH TX
1040 AM CDT WED MAR 14 2012
.UPDATE...
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING STARTED OUT PRETTY WARM FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL AGAIN TODAY AND THUS IT WILL AGAIN BE
TOUGH TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THERE ARE MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THIS MORNING WHICH
SHOULD YIELD SLIGHTLY WARMER LOW LEVEL TEMPS LATER TODAY. WITH
WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING OVERHEAD AND A RELATIVELY STRONGER
SHORTWAVE EVIDENT NEAR THE EL PASO AREA...WILL INCLUDE A MENTION
FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ONCE AGAIN...IF A STORM CAN DEVELOP...IT WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
BECOME STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE. OTHERWISE...ADJUSTED
TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES IN THE WEST WHERE THICK CLOUD
COVER SHOULD PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
82/JLD
&&
.AVIATION...
AFTER FURTHER CONSIDERATION...HAVE DECIDED NOT TO INCLUDE IFR
CONDITIONS IN A 12-15Z TEMPO GROUPING. THE WINDS ARE KEEPING THE
LOWER LEVELS SUFFICIENTLY MIXED TO KEEP FOG FROM DEVELOPING.
LIKEWISE...CEILINGS TO THE SOUTH REMAIN 1200-2500 FEET. THUS WILL
JUST LEAVE MVFR CEILINGS WITH NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS THIS
MORNING.
.../PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION/...
GENERAL MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH LATE
MORNING. HAVE LEFT A MENTION OF LIGHT FOG AND SOME HIGHER END IFR
CEILINGS IN THE TAFS FOR THE 12-15Z PERIOD...BUT WITH SURFACE
WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS WILL LIKELY JUST RESULT IN LOWER END MVFR
CEILINGS. AS GREATER VERTICAL MIXING OCCURS LATER THIS
MORNING...EXPECT TO SEE CEILINGS RISE BACK TO THE VFR CATEGORY.
MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD RETURN AFTER 06-08Z THURSDAY.
58
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 AM CDT WED MAR 14 2012/
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
LEAD TO ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN
PLACE...THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS AS TEMPERATURES APPROACH DEWPOINT READINGS. IN
FACT THE LAST FEW HRRR CYCLES HAVE HINTED AT LOWERING VISIBILITIES
ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA PRIOR TO SUNRISE. HOWEVER...WITH WINDS
REMAINING MAINLY IN THE 10-15 MPH RANGE...FEEL WE WILL BE DEALING
MAINLY WITH LOW STRATUS AND SURFACE VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN
OVERALL OKAY.
THE NEXT CHALLENGE WILL BE POPS FOR NOW THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THE
ATMOSPHERE IS UNSTABLE TODAY WITH MODEL FORECAST SB CAPE APPROACHING
1500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. NAM ALSO ERODES THE CAP ALMOST
COMPLETELY BY MID AFTERNOON...WHILE GFS HOLDS ONTO A GOOD AMOUNT
OF CIN. BELIEVE THAT WITH THE LACK OF A TRIGGER OR ANY UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT...CONVECTION WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME TODAY AND WILL
KEEP POPS BELOW 20 PERCENT WITHOUT ANY MENTION OF PRECIP IN THE
FORECAST. A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE WILL THEN PASS OVERHEAD DURING THE
DAY TOMORROW. FEEL THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF AT LEAST
ISOLATED STORMS. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE 20 POPS IN AREAWIDE AND REFINE
IF NEEDED LATER. THE UPPER DISTURBANCE SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA
ALONG WITH THE ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION THURSDAY NIGHT.
BY FRIDAY IT LOOKS LIKE THE RIDGE WILL BE TOO STRONG FOR
SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES. ONE THING TO KEEP AN EYE ON WILL BE
DRYLINE DEVELOPMENT TO OUR NORTHWEST FRIDAY EVENING. AT THIS TIME
IT LOOKS LIKE ANY ACTIVITY THAT GETS GOING SHOULD DIMINISH BEFORE
REACHING THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. IF ANYTHING HOLDS TOGETHER AN
UPWARD ADJUSTMENT OF POPS MAY BE NEEDED LATE FRIDAY FOR THE
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY BREAK DOWN OVER THE WEEKEND
AS A LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY DURING PEAK HEATING IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN
CHANCES WILL THEN INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
UPPER TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE REGION. GFS AND ECMWF
ARE SIMILAR WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM WITH ONLY MINOR
VARIATIONS IN THE TIMING. LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM
SHOULD LEAD TO WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION BY MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT.
MODELS ARE SHOWING NEGATIVE TILT...AND RESPECTIVE MODEL SOUNDINGS
AND HODOGRAPHS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. IT
IS STILL FAR TOO EARLY FOR ANY SPECIFICS BUT CERTAINLY WORTH
WATCHING AS THE FIRST DAYS OF SPRING DRAW NEAR. LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE THEN POINTS TOWARDS TEMPERATURES FINALLY RETURNING TO
NEAR-NORMAL AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
UPPER TROUGH SHOVES EAST OF THE AREA AND THE NEXT FRONT MOVES
THROUGH.
30
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 77 66 78 66 77 / 10 10 20 10 10
WACO, TX 78 67 78 64 77 / 10 10 20 10 10
PARIS, TX 78 62 77 60 77 / 10 10 20 20 10
DENTON, TX 77 67 78 64 77 / 10 10 20 10 10
MCKINNEY, TX 77 67 77 65 77 / 10 10 20 20 10
DALLAS, TX 77 67 78 65 77 / 10 10 20 10 10
TERRELL, TX 78 66 78 64 77 / 10 10 20 20 10
CORSICANA, TX 78 65 78 64 78 / 10 10 20 10 10
TEMPLE, TX 78 66 78 64 77 / 10 10 20 10 10
MINERAL WELLS, TX 76 63 79 63 77 / 10 10 20 10 10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
69/82
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS FORT WORTH TX
624 AM CDT WED MAR 14 2012
.AVIATION...
AFTER FURTHER CONSIDERATION...HAVE DECIDED NOT TO INCLUDE IFR
CONDITIONS IN A 12-15Z TEMPO GROUPING. THE WINDS ARE KEEPING THE
LOWER LEVELS SUFFICIENTLY MIXED TO KEEP FOG FROM DEVELOPING.
LIKEWISE...CEILINGS TO THE SOUTH REMAIN 1200-2500 FEET. THUS WILL
JUST LEAVE MVFR CEILINGS WITH NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS THIS
MORNING.
588
.../PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION/...
GENERAL MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH LATE
MORNING. HAVE LEFT A MENTION OF LIGHT FOG AND SOME HIGHER END IFR
CEILINGS IN THE TAFS FOR THE 12-15Z PERIOD...BUT WITH SURFACE
WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS WILL LIKELY JUST RESULT IN LOWER END MVFR
CEILINGS. AS GREATER VERTICAL MIXING OCCURS LATER THIS
MORNING...EXPECT TO SEE CEILINGS RISE BACK TO THE VFR CATEGORY.
MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD RETURN AFTER 06-08Z THURSDAY.
58
58
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 AM CDT WED MAR 14 2012/
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
LEAD TO ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN
PLACE...THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS AS TEMPERATURES APPROACH DEWPOINT READINGS. IN
FACT THE LAST FEW HRRR CYCLES HAVE HINTED AT LOWERING VISIBILITIES
ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA PRIOR TO SUNRISE. HOWEVER...WITH WINDS
REMAINING MAINLY IN THE 10-15 MPH RANGE...FEEL WE WILL BE DEALING
MAINLY WITH LOW STRATUS AND SURFACE VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN
OVERALL OKAY.
THE NEXT CHALLENGE WILL BE POPS FOR NOW THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THE
ATMOSPHERE IS UNSTABLE TODAY WITH MODEL FORECAST SB CAPE APPROACHING
1500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. NAM ALSO ERODES THE CAP ALMOST
COMPLETELY BY MID AFTERNOON...WHILE GFS HOLDS ONTO A GOOD AMOUNT
OF CIN. BELIEVE THAT WITH THE LACK OF A TRIGGER OR ANY UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT...CONVECTION WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME TODAY AND WILL
KEEP POPS BELOW 20 PERCENT WITHOUT ANY MENTION OF PRECIP IN THE
FORECAST. A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE WILL THEN PASS OVERHEAD DURING THE
DAY TOMORROW. FEEL THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF AT LEAST
ISOLATED STORMS. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE 20 POPS IN AREAWIDE AND REFINE
IF NEEDED LATER. THE UPPER DISTURBANCE SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA
ALONG WITH THE ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION THURSDAY NIGHT.
BY FRIDAY IT LOOKS LIKE THE RIDGE WILL BE TOO STRONG FOR
SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES. ONE THING TO KEEP AN EYE ON WILL BE
DRYLINE DEVELOPMENT TO OUR NORTHWEST FRIDAY EVENING. AT THIS TIME
IT LOOKS LIKE ANY ACTIVITY THAT GETS GOING SHOULD DIMINISH BEFORE
REACHING THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. IF ANYTHING HOLDS TOGETHER AN
UPWARD ADJUSTMENT OF POPS MAY BE NEEDED LATE FRIDAY FOR THE
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY BREAK DOWN OVER THE WEEKEND
AS A LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY DURING PEAK HEATING IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN
CHANCES WILL THEN INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
UPPER TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE REGION. GFS AND ECMWF
ARE SIMILAR WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM WITH ONLY MINOR
VARIATIONS IN THE TIMING. LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM
SHOULD LEAD TO WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION BY MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT.
MODELS ARE SHOWING NEGATIVE TILT...AND RESPECTIVE MODEL SOUNDINGS
AND HODOGRAPHS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. IT
IS STILL FAR TOO EARLY FOR ANY SPECIFICS BUT CERTAINLY WORTH
WATCHING AS THE FIRST DAYS OF SPRING DRAW NEAR. LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE THEN POINTS TOWARDS TEMPERATURES FINALLY RETURNING TO
NEAR-NORMAL AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
UPPER TROUGH SHOVES EAST OF THE AREA AND THE NEXT FRONT MOVES
THROUGH.
30
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 77 66 78 66 77 / 10 10 20 10 10
WACO, TX 78 67 78 64 77 / 10 10 20 10 10
PARIS, TX 79 62 77 60 77 / 10 10 20 20 10
DENTON, TX 77 67 78 64 77 / 10 10 20 10 10
MCKINNEY, TX 77 67 77 65 77 / 10 10 20 20 10
DALLAS, TX 77 67 78 65 77 / 10 10 20 10 10
TERRELL, TX 78 66 78 64 77 / 10 10 20 20 10
CORSICANA, TX 78 65 78 64 78 / 10 10 20 10 10
TEMPLE, TX 78 66 78 64 77 / 10 10 20 10 10
MINERAL WELLS, TX 77 63 79 63 77 / 10 10 20 10 10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
58/30
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS FORT WORTH TX
526 AM CDT WED MAR 14 2012
.AVIATION...
GENERAL MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH LATE
MORNING. HAVE LEFT A MENTION OF LIGHT FOG AND SOME HIGHER END IFR
CEILINGS IN THE TAFS FOR THE 12-15Z PERIOD...BUT WITH SURFACE
WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS WILL LIKELY JUST RESULT IN LOWER END MVFR
CEILINGS. AS GREATER VERTICAL MIXING OCCURS LATER THIS
MORNING...EXPECT TO SEE CEILINGS RISE BACK TO THE VFR CATEGORY.
MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD RETURN AFTER 06-08Z THURSDAY.
58
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 AM CDT WED MAR 14 2012/
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
LEAD TO ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN
PLACE...THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS AS TEMPERATURES APPROACH DEWPOINT READINGS. IN
FACT THE LAST FEW HRRR CYCLES HAVE HINTED AT LOWERING VISIBILITIES
ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA PRIOR TO SUNRISE. HOWEVER...WITH WINDS
REMAINING MAINLY IN THE 10-15 MPH RANGE...FEEL WE WILL BE DEALING
MAINLY WITH LOW STRATUS AND SURFACE VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN
OVERALL OKAY.
THE NEXT CHALLENGE WILL BE POPS FOR NOW THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THE
ATMOSPHERE IS UNSTABLE TODAY WITH MODEL FORECAST SB CAPE APPROACHING
1500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. NAM ALSO ERODES THE CAP ALMOST
COMPLETELY BY MID AFTERNOON...WHILE GFS HOLDS ONTO A GOOD AMOUNT
OF CIN. BELIEVE THAT WITH THE LACK OF A TRIGGER OR ANY UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT...CONVECTION WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME TODAY AND WILL
KEEP POPS BELOW 20 PERCENT WITHOUT ANY MENTION OF PRECIP IN THE
FORECAST. A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE WILL THEN PASS OVERHEAD DURING THE
DAY TOMORROW. FEEL THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF AT LEAST
ISOLATED STORMS. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE 20 POPS IN AREAWIDE AND REFINE
IF NEEDED LATER. THE UPPER DISTURBANCE SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA
ALONG WITH THE ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION THURSDAY NIGHT.
BY FRIDAY IT LOOKS LIKE THE RIDGE WILL BE TOO STRONG FOR
SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES. ONE THING TO KEEP AN EYE ON WILL BE
DRYLINE DEVELOPMENT TO OUR NORTHWEST FRIDAY EVENING. AT THIS TIME
IT LOOKS LIKE ANY ACTIVITY THAT GETS GOING SHOULD DIMINISH BEFORE
REACHING THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. IF ANYTHING HOLDS TOGETHER AN
UPWARD ADJUSTMENT OF POPS MAY BE NEEDED LATE FRIDAY FOR THE
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY BREAK DOWN OVER THE WEEKEND
AS A LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY DURING PEAK HEATING IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN
CHANCES WILL THEN INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
UPPER TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE REGION. GFS AND ECMWF
ARE SIMILAR WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM WITH ONLY MINOR
VARIATIONS IN THE TIMING. LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM
SHOULD LEAD TO WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION BY MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT.
MODELS ARE SHOWING NEGATIVE TILT...AND RESPECTIVE MODEL SOUNDINGS
AND HODOGRAPHS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. IT
IS STILL FAR TOO EARLY FOR ANY SPECIFICS BUT CERTAINLY WORTH
WATCHING AS THE FIRST DAYS OF SPRING DRAW NEAR. LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE THEN POINTS TOWARDS TEMPERATURES FINALLY RETURNING TO
NEAR-NORMAL AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
UPPER TROUGH SHOVES EAST OF THE AREA AND THE NEXT FRONT MOVES
THROUGH.
30
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 77 66 78 66 77 / 10 10 20 10 10
WACO, TX 78 67 78 64 77 / 10 10 20 10 10
PARIS, TX 79 62 77 60 77 / 10 10 20 20 10
DENTON, TX 77 67 78 64 77 / 10 10 20 10 10
MCKINNEY, TX 77 67 77 65 77 / 10 10 20 20 10
DALLAS, TX 77 67 78 65 77 / 10 10 20 10 10
TERRELL, TX 78 66 78 64 77 / 10 10 20 20 10
CORSICANA, TX 78 65 78 64 78 / 10 10 20 10 10
TEMPLE, TX 78 66 78 64 77 / 10 10 20 10 10
MINERAL WELLS, TX 77 63 79 63 77 / 10 10 20 10 10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
58/30
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
336 AM CDT WED MAR 14 2012
.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
LEAD TO ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN
PLACE...THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS AS TEMPERATURES APPROACH DEWPOINT READINGS. IN
FACT THE LAST FEW HRRR CYCLES HAVE HINTED AT LOWERING VISIBILITIES
ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA PRIOR TO SUNRISE. HOWEVER...WITH WINDS
REMAINING MAINLY IN THE 10-15 MPH RANGE...FEEL WE WILL BE DEALING
MAINLY WITH LOW STRATUS AND SURFACE VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN
OVERALL OKAY.
THE NEXT CHALLENGE WILL BE POPS FOR NOW THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THE
ATMOSPHERE IS UNSTABLE TODAY WITH MODEL FORECAST SB CAPE APPROACHING
1500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. NAM ALSO ERODES THE CAP ALMOST
COMPLETELY BY MID AFTERNOON...WHILE GFS HOLDS ONTO A GOOD AMOUNT
OF CIN. BELIEVE THAT WITH THE LACK OF A TRIGGER OR ANY UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT...CONVECTION WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME TODAY AND WILL
KEEP POPS BELOW 20 PERCENT WITHOUT ANY MENTION OF PRECIP IN THE
FORECAST. A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE WILL THEN PASS OVERHEAD DURING THE
DAY TOMORROW. FEEL THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF AT LEAST
ISOLATED STORMS. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE 20 POPS IN AREAWIDE AND REFINE
IF NEEDED LATER. THE UPPER DISTURBANCE SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA
ALONG WITH THE ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION THURSDAY NIGHT.
BY FRIDAY IT LOOKS LIKE THE RIDGE WILL BE TOO STRONG FOR
SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES. ONE THING TO KEEP AN EYE ON WILL BE
DRYLINE DEVELOPMENT TO OUR NORTHWEST FRIDAY EVENING. AT THIS TIME
IT LOOKS LIKE ANY ACTIVITY THAT GETS GOING SHOULD DIMINISH BEFORE
REACHING THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. IF ANYTHING HOLDS TOGETHER AN
UPWARD ADJUSTMENT OF POPS MAY BE NEEDED LATE FRIDAY FOR THE
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY BREAK DOWN OVER THE WEEKEND
AS A LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY DURING PEAK HEATING IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN
CHANCES WILL THEN INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
UPPER TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE REGION. GFS AND ECMWF
ARE SIMILAR WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM WITH ONLY MINOR
VARIATIONS IN THE TIMING. LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM
SHOULD LEAD TO WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION BY MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT.
MODELS ARE SHOWING NEGATIVE TILT...AND RESPECTIVE MODEL SOUNDINGS
AND HODOGRAPHS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. IT
IS STILL FAR TOO EARLY FOR ANY SPECIFICS BUT CERTAINLY WORTH
WATCHING AS THE FIRST DAYS OF SPRING DRAW NEAR. LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE THEN POINTS TOWARDS TEMPERATURES FINALLY RETURNING TO
NEAR-NORMAL AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
UPPER TROUGH SHOVES EAST OF THE AREA AND THE NEXT FRONT MOVES
THROUGH.
30
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 77 66 78 66 77 / 10 10 20 10 10
WACO, TX 78 67 78 64 77 / 10 10 20 10 10
PARIS, TX 79 62 77 60 77 / 10 10 20 20 10
DENTON, TX 77 67 78 64 77 / 10 10 20 10 10
MCKINNEY, TX 77 67 77 65 77 / 10 10 20 20 10
DALLAS, TX 77 67 78 65 77 / 10 10 20 10 10
TERRELL, TX 78 66 78 64 77 / 10 10 20 20 10
CORSICANA, TX 78 65 78 64 78 / 10 10 20 10 10
TEMPLE, TX 78 66 78 64 77 / 10 10 20 10 10
MINERAL WELLS, TX 77 63 79 63 77 / 10 10 20 10 10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
58/30
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
905 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL MAINTAIN A MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW OF AIR
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. WEAK IMPULSES RIDING AROUND THE
HIGH WILL PRODUCE MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 840 PM EDT THURSDAY...
INITIAL BATCH OF SHRA/TSRA ALONG EARLIER OUTFLOW AND ASSOCIATED
VORT WITH THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX THAT DROPPED OUT OF THE OHIO
VALLEY HAS FADED TO THE SOUTH THIS EVENING. HOWEVER HAVE ANOTHER
MCS TYPE FEATURE WAITING JUST WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS THAT WILL BE
THE MAIN CONCERN IN HOW FAR EAST IT GETS AND DEGREE OF SHRA
COVERAGE IF ANY THRU MORNING. LATEST SPC ANALYSIS SHOWS A SMALL MESO
HIGH OVER SW VA IN THE WAKE OF THE EARLIER RAINFALL WITH PLENTY OF
STABILITY IN PLACE THAT WITH LOSS OF HEATING SHOULD ACT TO WEAKEN
UPSTREAM CONVECTION AS IT ATTEMPTS TO CROSS THE RIDGES. LATEST
GUIDANCE HAS QUITE A RANGE OF SOLNS OVERNIGHT WITH MOST SHORT TERM
MODELS LIKE THE HRRR AND LOCAL WRFS QUICKLY FADING COVERAGE TO
JUST SOME SCTD WESTERN SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH MODELS HAVING
LOTS OF TROUBLE WITH THESE WEAK PIECES OF ENERGY HAVE BUMPED UP
POPS OVER THE WEST...GIVEN AXIS OF CONVECTION NOW ENTERING FAR SW
VA...TO HIGHER CHANCES OVERNIGHT WITH SLIGHT POPS OUT EAST. LEFT
IN SOME THUNDER MENTION AS WELL IN CASE SOME OF THIS COVERAGE
MAKES IT ACROSS WHICH LOOKS QUITE IFFY ATTM. OTRW MAINLY CLOUDY
WEST TO PC TO BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY EAST. EXPECT TEMPS TO ONLY
FALL OFF INTO THE 50S OVERNIGHT PER HIGHER DEWPOINTS...AND CLOUDS
BUT COOLER 40S VALLEYS AND LOCATIONS THAT SAW EARLIER HEAVY
RAINFALL...INCLUDING LOTS OF SMALL HAIL IN A FEW SPOTS ACROSS THE
SW THIRD.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 405 PM EDT THURSDAY...
SEVERAL PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT
AS CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES IN THE OHIO VALLEY MOVE SOUTHEAST OR
SOUTH. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION REMAINS IN THE
WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA TONIGHT. AS A FRONT APPROACHES THE
REGION ON FRIDAY...THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
WITH ALL THE COLD COVER TONIGHT WENT WITH THE WARMER GUIDANCE FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS. AGAIN ON FRIDAY WITH THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED HAVE LOWERED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES. EVEN SO TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT THURSDAY...
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WILL FEATURE A WESTERN U.S. TROUGH DIGGING
DEEPLY INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. H5 HEIGHTS RISE TO 580+ DM BY SUNDAY.
SURFACE HIGH WILL BE LOCATED OFF THE EAST COAST AND ANOTHER OVER
SOUTHEAST CANADA WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC. CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW AS TO PLACEMENT AND
STRENGTH OF THIS BOUNDARY AND HOW FAR TO THE SOUTHWEST THIS FRONT
MAY END UP. SEVERAL WEAK SHORT WAVES ARE FORECAST TO TRACK ALONG THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES AND MOISTURE SHOULD BE PLENTIFUL
BENEATH THE BUILDING RIDGE AS PWATS REMAIN AT OR NEAR 1 INCH MOST OF
THE WEEKEND. IN ADDITION THE FRONT MAY ACT AS A FOCUS FOR DIURNAL
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS
LI/CAPES WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SOME FAIRLY STRONG STORMS. SHOWER
CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH SOMEWHAT ON SUNDAY AS LESS INSTABILITY IS
FORECAST BUT MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS
REMAINING IN THE WELL ABOVE NORMAL (FOR MID-MARCH) RANGE THROUGHOUT
THE WEEKEND RUNNING AT LEAST 10 TO 15F OVER SEASONAL NORMS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...
ALMOST SUMMER OR AT LEAST LATE SPRING-LIKE PATTERN PERSISTS MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK AS UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO PUMP UP OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
WITH HUGE POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES EXTENDING ALL THE WAY NORTHWARD
INTO LABRADOR WHILE THE WESTERN U.S. MAINTAINS ALMOST EQUALLY STRONG
NEGATIVE HEIGHT DEPARTURES. SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE WITH
TERRAIN AND DIURNAL FORCING BUT NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
AS MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE REMAINS WELL WEST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AND NOTHING WILL BE MOVING VERY FAST UNDER THIS VERY BLOCKY PATTERN.
WARM TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE BIG STORY AS WE JOIN MUCH OF THE
COUNTRY IN POSSIBLY REWRITING THE MARCH RECORD BOOKS.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 700 PM EST THURSDAY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS WILL
GRADUALLY FADE WITH LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING BEFORE ANOTHER
ROUND OF WEAKENING CONVECTION ATTEMPTS TO PUSH IN FROM THE WEST
BY MIDNIGHT. THIS BREAK IN SHRA SHOULD ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF VFR
MOST SITES THIS EVENING WITH SOME PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG POSSIBLY
DEVELOPING IN SPOTS THAT SAW EARLIER RAINFALL. LOW CONFIDENCE IN
HOW FAR EAST THE NEXT BATCH OF SHRA/TSRA MAY MAKE IT ESPCLY WITH
BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING IN THE WAKE OF THE CURRENT EXITING PRECIP.
FOR NOW MAY INCLUDE A VCSH MENTION ACROSS THE SE WVA SITES OVERNIGHT
BUT KEEP CIGS VFR ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER NEAR ANY SHRA COULD
SEE CIGS BRIEFLY LOWER TO MVFR/IFR OVER THE MOUNTAINS. AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND A WEAK IMPULSE SLIDES
ACROSS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN AXIS OF CONVECTION ESPCLY FROM LATE
MORNING IN THE WEST...TO AT LEAST SCATTERED MOST AREAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THINK ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE EITHER SOME
PREVAILING VSBY REDUCTIONS IN SHRA ESPCLY WEST EARLY ON WITH
VCTS/CB MENTION ELSW DURING THE AFTERNOON.
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND...THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST BRINGING A WIND SHIFT
AND SUBSEQUENT UPSLOPE FLOW FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS MAY
BRING SUB-VFR CONDITIONS TO THE AREA IF THE AIR MASS IS ABLE TO
BECOME SATURATED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER FROM EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW.
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY ALSO OCCUR ESPCLY
ALONG/WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH MVFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS NEAR
ANY CONVECTION. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD VFR OUTSIDE OF ISOLATED
MAINLY AFTERNOON MOUNTAIN SHOWERS BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&
.CLIMATE...
MARCH 16
STATION RECORD
ROANOKE 84/1945 81
LYNCHBURG 81/1945 81
DANVILLE 82/1990 82
BLACKSBURG 75/2002 75
BLUEFIELD 73/1995 76
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/JH
NEAR TERM...AMS/JH
SHORT TERM...PC
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...AMS/JH/PM
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
847 PM CDT THU MAR 15 2012
.UPDATE...
WILL BE AWAITING WHAT 03/16 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE WILL HAVE FOR
POSITION OF SHALLOW COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT LINE CURRENTLY BI-
SECTING THE CWA...AND ASSOCIATED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/TEMPERATURE
PLACEMENT. SURFACE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...REFLECTED IN HIGHER DEW
POINTS ALONG THE BOUNDARY...IS ABOUT WHERE IT WAS EXPECTED. WILL
BE MONITORING TRENDS AS ATMOSPHERE COOLS FOR ANY NEEDED
ADJUSTMENTS TO TIMING OR AREAL COVERAGE OF DENSE FOG ADVISORY.
BACK EDGE OF LAKE FOG/STRATUS HAS CLEARED TO THE SOUTH OF WIND
POINT AND RACINE...BUT IS MOVING INLAND OVER FAR NE ILLINOIS PER
SATELLITE 11U-3.9U FOG PRODUCT AND WAUKEGAN AIRPORT OB. ALSO
APPEARS TO BE CLIPPING FAR SOUTHEAST KENOSHA COUNTY NEAR PLEASANT
PRAIRIE. THIS INLAND PUSH WAS EXPECTED...BUT LOOKS AS IF IT WILL
BE FOCUSED SOUTH OF THE BORDER FOR NOW.
ONE CHANGE PER LATEST RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND INSPECTION OF
18Z NAM SOUNDINGS...AS WELL AS LATEST HRRR SURFACE TEMPERATURE/DEW
POINT FORECASTS...WILL EXTEND THE ADVISORY TO 15Z FRIDAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR DELAY IN NEAR-SURFACE MIX OUT PER THE SOUNDINGS.
&&
.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...
WILL BE COMING LATER AFTER NEW MODEL RUNS COME IN.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 PM CDT THU MAR 15 2012/
SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.
A VERY SHALLOW COLD FRONT RACED DOWN THE WESTERN LAKE MICHIGAN
SHORELINE TODAY...CAUSING TEMPERATURES TO DROP ABOUT 15 DEGREES IN A
MATTER OF MINUTES RIGHT ALONG THE SHORELINE. MITCHELL AIRPORT
DROPPED FROM A RECORD HIGH OF 72 DEGREES TO 55 DEGREES LATE IN THE
MORNING. THE DENSITY DISCONTINUITY ALONG THE FRONT WAS VISIBLE ON
THE MKE AIRPORT TERMINAL DOPPLER RADAR THIS AFTERNOON...AND SHOWED
THAT THE LAYER OF COLD AIR WAS ONLY ABOUT 500 FEET DEEP. THE FRONT
MIXED OUT SO QUICKLY THAT TIMMERMAN FIELD BARELY EXPERIENCED A
TEMPERATURE DROP AND KENOSHA AIRPORT REMAINED IN THE 70S AFTER THE
WIND SHIFT.
CUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WHERE DEWPOINT TEMPS LINGERED IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
THE SOUTHWEST FORECAST AREA MIXED OUT THIS AFTERNOON SO TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 70S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 40S WERE EXPERIENCED.
EXPECTING AREAS OF DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP TONIGHT...MOST LIKELY ALONG
THE SURFACE CONVERGENCE ZONE INDICATED BY THE CU FIELD. AREAS MOST
LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED WILL BE A LINE FROM THE DELLS TO MADISON TO
LAKE GENEVA TO KENOSHA. ISSUED DENSE FOG ADVISORY...WITH MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE.
CAPE VALUES WILL BE INCREASING TO OVER 2000J/KG FRI AFTERNOON. NAM
SHOWING MUCH LESS OF A CAP THAN THE GFS. NON-ZERO THREAT FOR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...BUT DID NOT MENTION IN FORECAST DUE TO THE
VERY LOW CHANCE AND NO TRIGGER MECHANISM.
THERE WILL BE A STRONG TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY. WENT WITH MAINLY 2M NAM
BIAS-CORRECTED...MODIFIED BY AN OBS-BASED MOS FORECAST FOR MAX
TEMPS. WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTHWARD FRI
AFTERNOON...THESE TEMPS COULD BE UNDERDONE BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH
A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE WRN USA LATE FRI NT AND SAT
WITH STRONG CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS OF MT. A PORTION
OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND THE SFC FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY LIFT NEWD
INTO CANADA MON/MON NT. THUS WI REMAINS IN SW FLOW ALOFT AND SLY
FLOW AT THE SFC WITH THE WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE SET FOR FRI
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. A VERY WARM...HUMID...UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL
PREVAIL WITH WEAK VORTICITY MAXIMUMS IN THE FLOW BRINGING SMALL
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRI NT/SAT AND AGAIN INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE AT TIMES INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM
A PORTION OF THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT INTO CANADA WHILE
THE OTHER PORTION WILL BECOME A CUTOFF UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
OR SRN PLAINS. VERY MILD TEMPS...HUMID AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE. TSTORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN WITH A DECAYING COLD
FRONT APPROACHING ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF THE UPPER LOW.
AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...
LIFR OR LOWER VSBYS/CIGS IN AREAS OF DENSE FOG TONIGHT ALONG AN AREA
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. AREAS MOST LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED
WITH DENSE FOG WILL BE A LINE FROM THE DELLS TO MADISON TO LAKE
GENEVA TO KENOSHA. WAUKESHA WILL BE ON THE BORDER OF FOG/NO FOG. NOT
EXPECTING DENSE FOG IN MILWAUKEE...ALTHOUGH THEY COULD GET FOG
ADVECTING INLAND FROM THE LAKE.
FOG WILL BURN OFF MID MORNING. ONLY SCATTERED CLOUDS POSSIBLE DURING
THE DAY...THEN FOG POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN FRI NIGHT.
MARINE...
AREAS OF DENSE FOG BEING OBSERVED IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS BETWEEN
MILWAUKEE AND WAUKEGAN. THIS IS A FAIRLY TRANSIENT AND SHALLOW AREA
OF FOG...SO NO HEADLINES AT THIS TIME. WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...SO FOG WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT. USE CAUTION IF MAKING
PLANS TO BE ON THE LAKE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 10 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR WIZ056>058-
063>065-069>072.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...REM
TONIGHT/FRIDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MRC
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...GEHRING
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
521 PM CDT WED MAR 14 2012
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
THE MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TONIGHT AND LOW CLOUDS AND
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY.
SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 19Z SHOWED A NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST COLD
FRONT ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WERE MAINLY IN THE 60S AND 70S...WITH 40S AND 50S DEW POINTS. A
LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPED AND DROPPED TEMPERATURES IN THE LAKESHORE
COUNTIES INTO THE 50S WITH 40S DEW POINTS. MESOANALYSIS HAD
SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES IN THE 1000-1500J/KG RANGE IN THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE 150-300J/KG OF SURFACE
BASED CIN. MODELS ALL SHOWED RATHER STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
THE 12Z GFS AND 09Z SREF HAD QPF IN THE AREA AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING SURFACE FRONT...THE 12Z ECMWF HAD A LITTLE QPF IN
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT. THE 12Z NAM KEPT THE AREA DRY
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD. 12Z MAV AND 12Z MET BOTH
HAD EXTREMELY LOW POPS. AM CONCERNED ABOUT POTENTIAL CONVECTION
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT ONLY WENT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE
EVENING IN THE EAST.
12Z MOS GUIDANCE HAD DENSE FOG AND STRATUS FOR THE GREEN BAY
AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. NOT REALLY SEEING
STRATUS BUT LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS AND HIGH DEW POINTS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
TO AT LEAST GET SOME FOG. THE FRONT STALLS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA SO WINDS WILL BE COMING OFF THE LAKE AND BAY...HOLDING
TEMPERATURES DOWN ON THURSDAY. HAVE HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S
TO UPPER 60S AWAY FROM THE LAKE AND IN THE 50S NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
PERSISTENT RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD. COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WILL SHIFT BACK NORTHWARD AS A
WARM FRONT ON SATURDAY. AFTER A BRIEF COOL DOWN ON FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES
WILL AGAIN WARM WELL INTO THE 60S AND 70S AWAY FROM THE BAY AND LAKE.
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY AT SOME LOCATIONS
FROM SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE BAY AND
LAKE. COOLER BY THE LAKE WORDING WILL ALSO BE NEEDED EACH DAY AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED. NOT ENOUGH EVIDENCE IN THE MODEL DATA WHERE
WINDS WOULD TURN OFFSHORE TO ALLOW FOR THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE
COMMUNITIES TO WARM INTO THE 60S AND 70S.
OTHERWISE...SUMMER LIKE PATTERN WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES ROTATING
AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE. TRYING TO TIME THESE FEATURES
TOUGH THIS FAR IN ADVANCE. DO THINK SHORTWAVE ENERGY FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING IS WORTH MENTIONS IN THE ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT.
WOULD HAVE GONE HIGHER POPS WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT TIMING AND LOCATION
ISSUES KEPT CHANCES A LOWER THAN WHAT HAVE LIKED. FIGURE THIS FEATURE
WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION.
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED HAS SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT
WILL NOT SHOW UP IN THE ZONES FOR MOST PERIODS. LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING
OF THE SMALL SCALE FEATURES ON TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS.
&&
.AVIATION...LOW CONFIDENCE IN CIG AND VSBY FCST FOR 00Z TAFS.
MODELS VERY INSISTENT THAT LOW CLDS AND VSBYS WL BECOME AN ISSUE
OVERNIGHT...IN THE WAKE OF COLD FRONT SLIPPING SWD THROUGH THE
RGN. THE PROBLEM IS...NO SIGN OF THIS HAPPENING YET ON VISIBLE STLT
IMAGERY. PLUS...BY 22Z THE RUC WAS FCSTG VSBYS BLO 1/4 SM OVER
MUCH OF WRN UPR MICHIGAN...AND THE VSREF HAS A GREATER THAN 70
PCT CHC OF VSBYS BLO 1SM IN THAT AREA. THAT IS THE SAME AREA WHICH
IS BASICALLY CLR ON THE STLT...AND HAS SFC DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS
OF NEARLY 25 F DEG RIGHT NOW.
CAN STILL SEE THE CASE FOR LOWER CLDS AND SOME FG DEVELOPING AS
SHALLOW COLD AIR MASS SLIPS SWD ACRS THE AREA. BUT IT CLEARLY IS
GOING TO TAKE LONGER THAN INDICATED BY THE GUID. WL PUSH BACK
TIMING...AND THEN LINGER LONGER INTO TOMORROW AS ELY FLOW
CONTINUES. WL CONT TO MONITOR TRENDS THIS EVENING...AND IF
NOTHING IS DEVELOPING BY THE TIME THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE COMES
ARND...WL NEED TO SERIOUSLY CONSIDER BACKING OFF ON THE LOW CLDS
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
SKOWRONSKI
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
340 PM CST WED MAR 14 2012
.VERY SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
CHALLENGING FORECAST WITH HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN A WEAK THUNDERSTORM
CHANCE...FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT...AND THURSDAY MAX TEMPERATURES.
WARM AIR AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMED INTO SOUTHERN WI THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH CURRENTLY SITUATED FROM
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO WESTERN IOWA. THE STRATUS IN NORTHEAST
IOWA AND FAR WESTERN WI STAYED OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE
AFTERNOON...PROVING THAT WE WERE UNDER A WELL-MIXED ENVIRONMENT.
CUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTHERN WI LATE THIS AFTERNOON AT
THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER...AROUND 3500 TO 4000 FEET AGL. THE CU
ARE VERY SHALLOW DUE TO THE CAP. MAINTAINED THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS FROM MID EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT BUT VERY LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING. THE HRRR AND SPC 4 KM WRF NMM SHOW A
FEW SHOWERS BREAKING OUT. GIVEN THE INSTABILITY WITH CAPE OVER 1000
J/KG...KEPT WITH THE TSTORM THINKING. HOWEVER THE CHANCE IS VERY
LOW. THERE IS VERY LITTLE UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND NO UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.
THE NEXT CHALLENGE IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR FOG AND STRATUS TO DEVELOP
LATE TONIGHT/THU MORNING. VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO...BUT
IT IS HARD TO IGNORE THE PERSISTENT MOS GUIDANCE SUGGESTING DENSE
FOG. GIVEN DEWPOINT TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S THIS AFTERNOON
/CROSSOVER TEMPS/ AND FORECAST TEMPS TO COOL LATE TONIGHT AS
THE TROUGH/WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT COMES OVERHEAD...THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR FOG TO DEVELOP AND POSSIBLY BECOME DENSE. IT IS
DIFFICULT TO PICTURE THIS SCENARIO SINCE THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BEEN SO
DRY AND TEMPS ARE SO WARM TODAY THAT THEY MAY NOT DROP BELOW THE
CROSSOVER TEMPS...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA.
THEREFORE...DID NOT ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY...BUT MENTIONED AREAS
OF FOG WITH PATCHY DENSE FOG IN FORECAST LATE TONIGHT INTO THUR
MORNING.
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL ZIP DOWN LAKE MICHIGAN MID THU MORNING.
THE CANADIAN MODEL IS QUICKER WITH THE WIND SHIFTING TO THE
NORTHEAST THAN THE NAM. WINDS SHOULD INCREASE ALONG THE LAKESHORE
WITH THE FRONT...THEN REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED AROUND 10 KNOTS
THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON WITH THE STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS
COLD FRONT SCENARIO PAINTS A DREARY PICTURE FOR MILWAUKEE ON
THURSDAY. CAN/T RULE OUT DRIZZLE WITH LOW CLOUDS...GUSTY NORTHEAST
WINDS FOR A TIME AND COOL TEMPERATURES FROM THE LAKE. LAKE MICHIGAN
TEMPS WERE BETWEEN 37 AND 40 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT PER MODIS IMAGERY
YESTERDAY EVENING.
UNCERTAIN HOW FAR INTO SOUTH CENTRAL WI THE FRONT WILL MAKE IT ON
THU. THE CANADIAN BRINGS IT ALL THE WAY TO MSN AND THE NAM DOES NOT.
TRIED TO BLEND THE TWO MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR TEMPS AND WINDS.
.SHORT TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
WL CONTINUE TO LEAN MORE ON HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM SOLUTION FOR THIS
PERIOD...WITH SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NUDGED FARTHER SOUTH DEEPER
INTO NRN IL AT START OF PERIOD. WITH MOIST LIGHT LOW LEVEL
NORTHEAST FLOW BELOW INVERSION EXPCD TO CONTINUE...WL CARRY FOG
MENTION THRU THURSDAY NIGHT...AND CONFINE TO THE EAST...CLOSER TO
COOL LAKE MI ON FRI. MAY BE UNDERDOING AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER NORTH
OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY DUE TO MOIST LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW BUT
CONCERNED ABOUT DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM THE NORTH THU NGT INTO
FRI. DEWPTS FALL INTO THE TEENS AND 20S BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE NRN
PLAINS. FOG SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK UP AS BOUNDARY LAYER GETS BETTER
MIXED FRIDAY MRNG.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINS TO SHIFT NORTHWARD LATER FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING LOW LEVEL SW FLOW. CAPPING DOES
DECREASE FRI AFTN BUT LACK OF ANY TRIGGER PRECLUDES ADDING ANY POPS
FOR NOW. BETTER CHANCE APPEARS FRI NIGHT AS MID LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION INCREASES ALONG WITH ELEVATED MOISTURE. COINCIDENTALLY...
WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE CAUGHT IN SOUTHWEST FLOW MOVES THRU SRN
WI. WEAK LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE BRUSHES SRN WI AS WELL...SO
ENUF EVIDENCE TO WARRENT ADDING SCHC POPS FRI NGT...CARRYING INTO
SAT. BULK OF SAT SHOULD BE DRY HOWEVER AS WK FORCING WL HAVE
SHIFTED TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY. SAT EXPCD TO BE WARMER MOST
LOCATIONS WITH BETTER SLY SFC WINDS.
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES PLANNED FOR THIS PERIOD. APPEARS
AMPLIFYING UPSTREAM LONG-WAVE TROFFING WL CONTINUE TO BRING WARM
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND RESULTING UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES TO MOST
OF SRN WI FOR THE BULK OF THIS PERIOD. RIGHT THROUGH 00Z/22...GFS
500H 5 DAY MEAN HEIGHTS REMAIN 100 TO 200 METERS ABV NORMAL ACRS SRN
WI. HOWEVER...GFS DIVERGING FROM OTHER LONG RANGE GUIDANCE LATER IN
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. ECMWF HAS BEEN TRENDING TOWARD MORE
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN MID-WEEK WITH UPSTREAM PIECE OF ENERGY DIGGING
INTO BACK SIDE OF LONG WAVE TROUGH ON TUESDAY. THIS RESULTS IN LONG
WAVE TROUGH EDGING SLOWLY EWD THRU CENTRAL CONUS...WITH SFC FRONT
MOVING THRU AREA LATE TUE NGT AND WED.
MEANWHILE...LAST SEVERAL DETERMINISTIC RUNS OF THE GFS HAVE TRENDED
TOWARD PERSISTENT BLOCKING HIGH OVER ERN CONUS CONTINUING THROUGH
MID-WEEK...PREVENTING EWD PROGRESSION OF LONG WAVE TROUGH. AS A
RESULT...GFS TRENDING TOWARD CUT-OFF UPPER LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE
SRN PLAINS. THIS UPPER LOW WOULD EVENTUALLY GET NUDGED NORTHEAST
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST LATER IN THE WEEK BY UPSTREAM KICKER PUSHING
TOWARD WEST COAST WED NGT AND THU. GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FAVORING
CUTOFF LOW...BUT SEVERAL MEMBERS LEAN TOWARD MORE PROGRESSIVE
SOLUTION. HPC LEANING TOWARD ECMWF SOLUTION...BUT SLOWER EWD
PROGRESSION...WHICH WOULD BE REASONABLE CONSIDERING BLOCKING RIDGE
TO THE EAST. FOR NOW...CONFIDENCE WL BE LOWEST IN THE LATE PERIODS
OF THE EXTENDED.
TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE WILL BE FLIRTING WITH RECORD
HIGHS INLAND...WHILE LAKE MICHIGAN KEEPS LAKESHORE TEMPERATURES
CONSIDERABLY COOLER. LATEST MODIS IMAGES SHOW LAKE MI LAKE SFC
TEMPERATURE REMAINING THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.
FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT AND LOW LEVEL
TEMPERATURE ANOMOLIES BETWEEN 3 AND 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS.
IN THE EARLIER PERIODS OF THE EXTENDED...WL CONTINUE LOW POPS FOR
THUNDER SAT NGT INTO SUN AS PIECE OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY MOVES
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. WARM MID-LEVEL AIR OVERSPREADS SRN WI
AFTER THIS DISTURBANCE. CAPPING INVERSION PREVENTS ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRPN THREAT EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH LIMITED MOISTURE.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS/...
ALTHOUGH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM EXISTS THIS EVENING...DUE
TO THE LACK OF FORCING WILL KEEP THE TAF FORECASTS DRY.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH LATE TONIGHT...AND WITH THE
INCREASED MOISTURE SOME FOG POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE ALONG WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF LIFR FOG OR IFR CEILINGS. VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN FOG
POTENTIAL...BUT IT SEEMS LIKE A GOOD ENOUGH CHANCE TO PUT INTO TAFS.
WILL HOLD OFF MENTIONING DENSE FOG IN A TEMPO GROUP UNTIL BETTER
CONFIDENCE DEVELOPS.
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL ZIP DOWN LAKE MICHIGAN MID THU MORNING.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND INCREASE ALONG THE LAKESHORE
WITH THE FRONT...THEN REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED AROUND 10 KNOTS
THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON WITH THE STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS
COLD FRONT SCENARIO PAINTS A DREARY PICTURE FOR MILWAUKEE ON
THURSDAY. CAN/T RULE OUT DRIZZLE WITH LOW CLOUDS...GUSTY NORTHEAST
WINDS FOR A TIME AND COOL TEMPERATURES FROM THE LAKE.
&&
.MARINE...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SAG IN FROM THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT THEN A
NORTHEAST FLOW AND LAKE COOLING EXPECTED ON THURSDAY. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN TONIGHT AS
MOIST AIR WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE AREA.
&&
.CONFIDENCE...
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...LOW.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...MEDIUM.
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...LOW TO MEDIUM.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...LOW TO MEDIUM.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MEDIUM.
WEDNESDAY...LOW TO MEDIUM.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/LONG TERM...MBK
VERY SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE...MRC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
113 PM CDT WED MAR 14 2012
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE SE U.S. TO THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES...WHILE A COLD FRONT IS HEADING EAST OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR IS SURGING NE OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WHERE DEWPOINTS AND TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 50S AND 60S FROM
WESTERN IOWA TO KANSAS. AS THIS MOISTURE FLOWS INTO THE REGION
AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...SMALL POPS ARE
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THIS FORECAST.
TODAY...STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING NE OVER CENTRAL CANADA WILL PUSH A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS MORNING AND
INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON. ANTICIPATE SE WINDS THIS
MORNING TO HOLD DEWPOINTS BACK SOMEWHAT...BUT SW WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON SHOULD BRING LOW TO MID 50S DEWPOINTS FROM KANSAS AND
OKLAHOMA INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN. THE SW WINDS WILL
ALSO BRING PLENTY OF WARM AIR NE...WITH BOTH THE ECMWF AND NAM
SHOWING 18C AT 925MB...WHICH EQUATES TO MID TO UPPER 70S FOR HIGHS
OVER CENTRAL AND E-C WISCONSIN. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THIS
AFTERNOON...A GENEROUS 77/56 PARCEL YIELDS ABOUT 2100 J/KG OF SB
CAPE AND 42 J/KG OF CIN AT STEVENS POINT. NORMALLY WOULDNT RULE OUT
CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT WITH THAT SMALLISH LEVEL OF CIN...BUT
MID-LEVELS ARE AWFULLY DRY AND CONVERGENCE IS PRETTY WEAK ALONG THE
FRONT. WITH NO UPPER SUPPORT (MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS ACTUALLY
INCREASE)...HAVING TROUBLE ADDING ISOLATED POPS WHEN THINK ITS GOING
TO BE DIFFICULT JUST TO GENERATE CU. IF A STORM DOES POP...AMPLE
INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH LOW WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS OF 7500 FT AND
MID-LEVEL DRY AIR SUGGEST A HAIL/WIND THREAT WOULD BE POSSIBLE.
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW THOUGH TO INCLUDE ISOLATED WORDING IN THE
FORECAST.
TONIGHT...THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE REST OF
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN MOSTLY DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
THE AIRMASS ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY MORE STABLE
AS NOCTURNAL COOLING SETS IN AND THINK A THREAT OF ELEVATED
CONVECTION IS SMALL WITH THE LLJ DEVELOPING EAST OF THE REGION.
WITH CONDITIONS ONLY BECOMING INCREASINGLY MORE HOSTILE TO
CONVECTION...JUSTIFYING POPS IS A DIFFICULT SELL IF GOING WITH A DRY
FORECAST IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP AN ISOLATED MENTION THOUGH TO
BLEND WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES. STATISTICAL GUIDANCE IS RATHER
BULLISH IN PRODUCING FOG TONIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. A DRY AIRMASS
ARRIVES NORTH OF THE FRONT OVER N-C WISCONSIN SO THINK THEY ARE
RELATIVELY SAFE. BUT CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY...WHERE LIGHTER FLOW
AND ELEVATED DEWPOINTS RESIDE...THINK THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR FOG.
WILL ADD IT TO THE FORECAST.
THURSDAY...THE SURFACE FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES
ON THURSDAY...WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.
SINCE THE 850MB FRONT WILL HANG FARTHER BACK OVER CENTRAL AND NE
WISCONSIN...PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STICK AROUND AND WILL
GO WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS OVER NE WISCONSIN. NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A COUPLE SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP OVER E-C
WISCONSIN BUT WILL LET LATER SHIFTS EVALUATE BEFORE GOING OUT OF
LINE WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES. QUITE A CHALLENGING TEMPERATURE
FORECAST DUE TO THE NE WINDS OFF LAKE MICHIGAN COMBINED WITH
POTENTIAL FOR CLOUD COVER AND A WARM AIRMASS IN PLACE. HAVE DROPPED
TEMPS NEXT TO THE BAY AND LAKE THOUGH ADMIT THAT POTENTIAL IS THERE
FOR THE LAKE INFLUENCE TO PENETRATE FARTHER INLAND. TEMPS WILL
MOSTLY BE IN THE 60S AWAY FROM THE BAY AND LAKE.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES
CONTINUE TO BE HOW WARM TEMPS WILL CLIMB...AND DETERMINING BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS.
MODELS FAIRLY CONSISTENT SHOWING SW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING LATE
THIS WEEK...AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. VERY MILD AIR
WILL DOMINATE THE PERIOD...WITH MORE RECORDS LIKELY TO BE BROKEN.
925-850MB TEMPS SUPPORT TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WI FROM SATURDAY-TUESDAY...WITH ONLY
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ACROSS THE NORTH. SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER TEMPS
ARE EXPECTED NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN WITH A PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW
STARTING FRIDAY.
WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH
WEAK LIFT AND LIMITED MOISTURE ABOVE 925MB...WILL CONTINUE WITH A
DRY FORECAST. MODELS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG THURSDAY NIGHT AS
WINDS DIE OFF AND DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE 40S. BELIEVE MODELS
ARE BEING FOOLED WITH THE VERY WARM AIRMASS IN PLACE...AS
TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS REMAIN ABOVE 3 DEGREES FOR MOST LOCATIONS
THROUGH THE NIGHT...LIMITING FOG POTENTIAL. SOME MET/MAV GUIDANCE
EVEN SHOWING FOG WITH SPREADS NEAR 10 DEGREES. WILL ADD SOME
PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE FOX VALLEY AND LAKESHORE...AS SE WINDS OFF
LAKE MICHIGAN COULD BRING SOME COOLER...RELATIVELY MOIST AIR
INLAND...BUT FOG CHANCES NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.
MODELS SEEM TO BE FOCUSING ON LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
FOR THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE AREA...AS A
WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. NO OTHER REAL SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION UNDER
THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN...SO WILL ONLY ADD SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR
NOW AND SEE HOW THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPS. TIMING THIS TYPE OF SYSTEM
WILL BE A CHALLENGE THIS FAR OUT...SO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF
ADJUSTMENTS ARE NEEDED. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS DEEP TROUGH EJECTS OUT OF THE WESTERN
CONUS INTO THE PLAINS. THE RIDGE WILL KEEP STORM CHANCES WEST OF
THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY...BEFORE THE RIDGE FINALLY
BREAKS DOWN ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE TROUGH TO PROGRESS SLOWLY
EASTWARD. HOWEVER...MODELS HAVE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN TIMING
THIS TRANSITION...WITH THE ECMWF MUCH FASTER THAN THE GFS ON
WEDNESDAY. SOMETHING TO WATCH OVER THE NEXT FEW MODEL RUNS.
&&
.AVIATION...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
THERE IS STILL A SIGNIFICANT DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS
FORECAST. AS A RESULT...ENDED UP TAKING A MORE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD
APPROACH TO TAFS. MODELS INDICATED INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY...WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST FLOW BRINGING HIGHER DEW POINTS...AND THE LAKE BREEZE
OR APPROACHING FRONT COULD CAUSE SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP. NOT A GREAT ENOUGH CHANCE OF THIS HAPPENING TO INCLUDE IN
TAFS. THERE WERE SOME MVFR CIGS IN SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN THIS
AFTERNOON BUT THIS CLOUD DECK APPEARED TO BE MOVING MORE TO THE
EAST THAN NORTHEAST. GUIDANCE WAS INDICATING PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE DURING THE NIGHT AND MOS GUIDANCE PRODUCTS HAVE MVFR/IFR
CIGS IN STRATUS AND VSBYS FORECAST BELOW A HALF MILE LATER TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING...WITH WORST CONDITIONS AROUND GRB AND
ATW...NOT AS BAD FARTHER WEST AND NORTH.
MG
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
556 AM CDT WED MAR 14 2012
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE SE U.S. TO THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES...WHILE A COLD FRONT IS HEADING EAST OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR IS SURGING NE OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WHERE DEWPOINTS AND TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 50S AND 60S FROM
WESTERN IOWA TO KANSAS. AS THIS MOISTURE FLOWS INTO THE REGION
AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...SMALL POPS ARE
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THIS FORECAST.
TODAY...STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING NE OVER CENTRAL CANADA WILL PUSH A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS MORNING AND
INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON. ANTICIPATE SE WINDS THIS
MORNING TO HOLD DEWPOINTS BACK SOMEWHAT...BUT SW WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON SHOULD BRING LOW TO MID 50S DEWPOINTS FROM KANSAS AND
OKLAHOMA INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN. THE SW WINDS WILL
ALSO BRING PLENTY OF WARM AIR NE...WITH BOTH THE ECMWF AND NAM
SHOWING 18C AT 925MB...WHICH EQUATES TO MID TO UPPER 70S FOR HIGHS
OVER CENTRAL AND E-C WISCONSIN. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THIS
AFTERNOON...A GENEROUS 77/56 PARCEL YIELDS ABOUT 2100 J/KG OF SB
CAPE AND 42 J/KG OF CIN AT STEVENS POINT. NORMALLY WOULDNT RULE OUT
CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT WITH THAT SMALLISH LEVEL OF CIN...BUT
MID-LEVELS ARE AWFULLY DRY AND CONVERGENCE IS PRETTY WEAK ALONG THE
FRONT. WITH NO UPPER SUPPORT (MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS ACTUALLY
INCREASE)...HAVING TROUBLE ADDING ISOLATED POPS WHEN THINK ITS GOING
TO BE DIFFICULT JUST TO GENERATE CU. IF A STORM DOES POP...AMPLE
INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH LOW WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS OF 7500 FT AND
MID-LEVEL DRY AIR SUGGEST A HAIL/WIND THREAT WOULD BE POSSIBLE.
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW THOUGH TO INCLUDE ISOLATED WORDING IN THE
FORECAST.
TONIGHT...THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE REST OF
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN MOSTLY DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
THE AIRMASS ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY MORE STABLE
AS NOCTURNAL COOLING SETS IN AND THINK A THREAT OF ELEVATED
CONVECTION IS SMALL WITH THE LLJ DEVELOPING EAST OF THE REGION.
WITH CONDITIONS ONLY BECOMING INCREASINGLY MORE HOSTILE TO
CONVECTION...JUSTIFYING POPS IS A DIFFICULT SELL IF GOING WITH A DRY
FORECAST IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP AN ISOLATED MENTION THOUGH TO
BLEND WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES. STATISTICAL GUIDANCE IS RATHER
BULLISH IN PRODUCING FOG TONIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. A DRY AIRMASS
ARRIVES NORTH OF THE FRONT OVER N-C WISCONSIN SO THINK THEY ARE
RELATIVELY SAFE. BUT CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY...WHERE LIGHTER FLOW
AND ELEVATED DEWPOINTS RESIDE...THINK THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR FOG.
WILL ADD IT TO THE FORECAST.
THURSDAY...THE SURFACE FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES
ON THURSDAY...WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.
SINCE THE 850MB FRONT WILL HANG FARTHER BACK OVER CENTRAL AND NE
WISCONSIN...PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STICK AROUND AND WILL
GO WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS OVER NE WISCONSIN. NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A COUPLE SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP OVER E-C
WISCONSIN BUT WILL LET LATER SHIFTS EVALUATE BEFORE GOING OUT OF
LINE WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES. QUITE A CHALLENGING TEMPERATURE
FORECAST DUE TO THE NE WINDS OFF LAKE MICHIGAN COMBINED WITH
POTENTIAL FOR CLOUD COVER AND A WARM AIRMASS IN PLACE. HAVE DROPPED
TEMPS NEXT TO THE BAY AND LAKE THOUGH ADMIT THAT POTENTIAL IS THERE
FOR THE LAKE INFLUENCE TO PENETRATE FARTHER INLAND. TEMPS WILL
MOSTLY BE IN THE 60S AWAY FROM THE BAY AND LAKE.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES
CONTINUE TO BE HOW WARM TEMPS WILL CLIMB...AND DETERMINING BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS.
MODELS FAIRLY CONSISTENT SHOWING SW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING LATE
THIS WEEK...AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. VERY MILD AIR
WILL DOMINATE THE PERIOD...WITH MORE RECORDS LIKELY TO BE BROKEN.
925-850MB TEMPS SUPPORT TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WI FROM SATURDAY-TUESDAY...WITH ONLY
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ACROSS THE NORTH. SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER TEMPS
ARE EXPECTED NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN WITH A PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW
STARTING FRIDAY.
WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH
WEAK LIFT AND LIMITED MOISTURE ABOVE 925MB...WILL CONTINUE WITH A
DRY FORECAST. MODELS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG THURSDAY NIGHT AS
WINDS DIE OFF AND DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE 40S. BELIEVE MODELS
ARE BEING FOOLED WITH THE VERY WARM AIRMASS IN PLACE...AS
TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS REMAIN ABOVE 3 DEGREES FOR MOST LOCATIONS
THROUGH THE NIGHT...LIMITING FOG POTENTIAL. SOME MET/MAV GUIDANCE
EVEN SHOWING FOG WITH SPREADS NEAR 10 DEGREES. WILL ADD SOME
PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE FOX VALLEY AND LAKESHORE...AS SE WINDS OFF
LAKE MICHIGAN COULD BRING SOME COOLER...RELATIVELY MOIST AIR
INLAND...BUT FOG CHANCES NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.
MODELS SEEM TO BE FOCUSING ON LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
FOR THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE AREA...AS A
WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. NO OTHER REAL SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION UNDER
THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN...SO WILL ONLY ADD SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR
NOW AND SEE HOW THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPS. TIMING THIS TYPE OF SYSTEM
WILL BE A CHALLENGE THIS FAR OUT...SO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF
ADJUSTMENTS ARE NEEDED. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS DEEP TROUGH EJECTS OUT OF THE WESTERN
CONUS INTO THE PLAINS. THE RIDGE WILL KEEP STORM CHANCES WEST OF
THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY...BEFORE THE RIDGE FINALLY
BREAKS DOWN ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE TROUGH TO PROGRESS SLOWLY
EASTWARD. HOWEVER...MODELS HAVE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN TIMING
THIS TRANSITION...WITH THE ECMWF MUCH FASTER THAN THE GFS ON
WEDNESDAY. SOMETHING TO WATCH OVER THE NEXT FEW MODEL RUNS.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AS SURFACE WINDS VEER AROUND FROM
THE SE TO THE SW. EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING WHEN A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
CHANCES OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WERE TOO SMALL TO INCLUDE IN THE
FORECAST...AS THE FRONT MAY BE TOO WEAK TO BREAK THE CAP. WINDS
WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE NE BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT AND MAY BRING
LOW STRATUS OFF LAKE MICHIGAN INTO NE WISCONSIN LATE. PATCHY FOG IS
ALSO POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AS WINDS TURN CALM WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.
MPC
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
325 AM CDT WED MAR 14 2012
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE SE U.S. TO THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES...WHILE A COLD FRONT IS HEADING EAST OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR IS SURGING NE OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WHERE DEWPOINTS AND TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 50S AND 60S FROM
WESTERN IOWA TO KANSAS. AS THIS MOISTURE FLOWS INTO THE REGION
AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...SMALL POPS ARE
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THIS FORECAST.
TODAY...STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING NE OVER CENTRAL CANADA WILL PUSH A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS MORNING AND
INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON. ANTICIPATE SE WINDS THIS
MORNING TO HOLD DEWPOINTS BACK SOMEWHAT...BUT SW WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON SHOULD BRING LOW TO MID 50S DEWPOINTS FROM KANSAS AND
OKLAHOMA INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN. THE SW WINDS WILL
ALSO BRING PLENTY OF WARM AIR NE...WITH BOTH THE ECMWF AND NAM
SHOWING 18C AT 925MB...WHICH EQUATES TO MID TO UPPER 70S FOR HIGHS
OVER CENTRAL AND E-C WISCONSIN. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THIS
AFTERNOON...A GENEROUS 77/56 PARCEL YIELDS ABOUT 2100 J/KG OF SB
CAPE AND 42 J/KG OF CIN AT STEVENS POINT. NORMALLY WOULDNT RULE OUT
CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT WITH THAT SMALLISH LEVEL OF CIN...BUT
MID-LEVELS ARE AWFULLY DRY AND CONVERGENCE IS PRETTY WEAK ALONG THE
FRONT. WITH NO UPPER SUPPORT (MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS ACTUALLY
INCREASE)...HAVING TROUBLE ADDING ISOLATED POPS WHEN THINK ITS GOING
TO BE DIFFICULT JUST TO GENERATE CU. IF A STORM DOES POP...AMPLE
INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH LOW WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS OF 7500 FT AND
MID-LEVEL DRY AIR SUGGEST A HAIL/WIND THREAT WOULD BE POSSIBLE.
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW THOUGH TO INCLUDE ISOLATED WORDING IN THE
FORECAST.
TONIGHT...THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE REST OF
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN MOSTLY DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
THE AIRMASS ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY MORE STABLE
AS NOCTURNAL COOLING SETS IN AND THINK A THREAT OF ELEVATED
CONVECTION IS SMALL WITH THE LLJ DEVELOPING EAST OF THE REGION.
WITH CONDITIONS ONLY BECOMING INCREASINGLY MORE HOSTILE TO
CONVECTION...JUSTIFYING POPS IS A DIFFICULT SELL IF GOING WITH A DRY
FORECAST IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP AN ISOLATED MENTION THOUGH TO
BLEND WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES. STATISTICAL GUIDANCE IS RATHER
BULLISH IN PRODUCING FOG TONIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. A DRY AIRMASS
ARRIVES NORTH OF THE FRONT OVER N-C WISCONSIN SO THINK THEY ARE
RELATIVELY SAFE. BUT CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY...WHERE LIGHTER FLOW
AND ELEVATED DEWPOINTS RESIDE...THINK THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR FOG.
WILL ADD IT TO THE FORECAST.
THURSDAY...THE SURFACE FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES
ON THURSDAY...WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.
SINCE THE 850MB FRONT WILL HANG FARTHER BACK OVER CENTRAL AND NE
WISCONSIN...PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STICK AROUND AND WILL
GO WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS OVER NE WISCONSIN. NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A COUPLE SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP OVER E-C
WISCONSIN BUT WILL LET LATER SHIFTS EVALUATE BEFORE GOING OUT OF
LINE WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES. QUITE A CHALLENGING TEMPERATURE
FORECAST DUE TO THE NE WINDS OFF LAKE MICHIGAN COMBINED WITH
POTENTIAL FOR CLOUD COVER AND A WARM AIRMASS IN PLACE. HAVE DROPPED
TEMPS NEXT TO THE BAY AND LAKE THOUGH ADMIT THAT POTENTIAL IS THERE
FOR THE LAKE INFLUENCE TO PENETRATE FARTHER INLAND. TEMPS WILL
MOSTLY BE IN THE 60S AWAY FROM THE BAY AND LAKE.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES
CONTINUE TO BE HOW WARM TEMPS WILL CLIMB...AND DETERMINING BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS.
MODELS FAIRLY CONSISTENT SHOWING SW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING LATE
THIS WEEK...AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. VERY MILD AIR
WILL DOMINATE THE PERIOD...WITH MORE RECORDS LIKELY TO BE BROKEN.
925-850MB TEMPS SUPPORT TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WI FROM SATURDAY-TUESDAY...WITH ONLY
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ACROSS THE NORTH. SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER TEMPS
ARE EXPECTED NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN WITH A PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW
STARTING FRIDAY.
WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH
WEAK LIFT AND LIMITED MOISTURE ABOVE 925MB...WILL CONTINUE WITH A
DRY FORECAST. MODELS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG THURSDAY NIGHT AS
WINDS DIE OFF AND DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE 40S. BELIEVE MODELS
ARE BEING FOOLED WITH THE VERY WARM AIRMASS IN PLACE...AS
TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS REMAIN ABOVE 3 DEGREES FOR MOST LOCATIONS
THROUGH THE NIGHT...LIMITING FOG POTENTIAL. SOME MET/MAV GUIDANCE
EVEN SHOWING FOG WITH SPREADS NEAR 10 DEGREES. WILL ADD SOME
PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE FOX VALLEY AND LAKESHORE...AS SE WINDS OFF
LAKE MICHIGAN COULD BRING SOME COOLER...RELATIVELY MOIST AIR
INLAND...BUT FOG CHANCES NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.
MODELS SEEM TO BE FOCUSING ON LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
FOR THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE AREA...AS A
WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. NO OTHER REAL SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION UNDER
THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN...SO WILL ONLY ADD SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR
NOW AND SEE HOW THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPS. TIMING THIS TYPE OF SYSTEM
WILL BE A CHALLENGE THIS FAR OUT...SO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF
ADJUSTMENTS ARE NEEDED. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS DEEP TROUGH EJECTS OUT OF THE WESTERN
CONUS INTO THE PLAINS. THE RIDGE WILL KEEP STORM CHANCES WEST OF
THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY...BEFORE THE RIDGE FINALLY
BREAKS DOWN ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE TROUGH TO PROGRESS SLOWLY
EASTWARD. HOWEVER...MODELS HAVE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN TIMING
THIS TRANSITION...WITH THE ECMWF MUCH FASTER THAN THE GFS ON
WEDNESDAY. SOMETHING TO WATCH OVER THE NEXT FEW MODEL RUNS.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED MOST OF THE PERIOD. WINDS
ALOFT WL CONT TO INCR TNGT...BUT PROBABLY NOT TO THE POINT TO MEET
LLWS CRITERIA. SOME MVRF CIGS COULD DEVELOP TOMORROW AFTN...ESP
ACRS THE NW 1/2 OF THE FCST AREA.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MPC/BERSCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
316 AM CDT WED MAR 14 2012
TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.
A MODERATE MID LEVEL WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL OCCUR TODAY AND
TONIGHT WITH ONLY WEAK...LESS THAN 2 UBAR/SEC UPWARD MOTION. 700 MB
RELATIVE HUMIDITY REMAINS DRY AND LITTLE MID/UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
WITH
MAIN JET STREAK MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO SOUTHERN CANADA TONIGHT.
850 MB SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES TO 30 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON THEN SAGS
SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS TONIGHT. LITTLE IN WAY OF
CONVERGENCE.
WEAK SOUTHEAST WINDS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD
BECOME MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WITH THE INCREASING GRADIENT. SOME
LAKE BREEZE POTENTIAL...BUT THIS WOULD NOT HAVE MUCH INLAND PUSH TO
IT.
MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM CENTERS ON INCREASING SURFACE TO 850 MB
MOISTURE. THE INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOWER 60S BY 00Z ON
THE NAM APPEARS EXCESSIVE. THE NAM/GFS MOS DO INCREASE THE
DEWPOINTS INTO THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60...BUT THIS OCCURS DURING
THE EVENING. CLOSEST 60 DEWPOINT NOW IS OVER OKLAHOMA. WITH DEW
POINTS LIKELY LESS THAN MODELS INDICATE SO TOO WILL BE THE
INSTABILITY. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE QUITE STEEP...AROUND 9C/KM
BUT THERE IS VERY DRY AIR AROUND 7 THSD FT. GFS ALSO HAS A STRONGER
LOW LEVEL CAP THAN THE NAM. RUC IS SOMEWHAT IN BETWEEN. THEREFORE
EVEN WITH THE LOW LEVEL INCREASE IN MOISTURE A LACK OF A TRIGGER
WILL HAMPER DEEP MOIST CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.
THERE WILL BE A COLD FRONT THAT SAGS SOUTH LATE TONIGHT IN RESPONSE
TO HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE LAKE SUPERIOR AREA.
THIS WILL BE VERY SHALLOW AND WILL LIKELY NOT PRESENT MUCH OF A
TRIGGER POTENTIAL. THE INCREASING MOISTURE AND WEAK WIND SHIFT WILL
POSE A RISK OF FOG DEVELOPMENT...POSSIBLY DENSE.
THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW TO MEDIUM
MAIN CONCERN CENTERS ON TEMPERATURES. BIG DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MET
AND MAV GUIDANCE NUMBERS. GFS ESSENTIALLY IGNORING THE LAKE. GIVEN
THE COLDER LAKE TEMPS PREFER LEANING ON THE TRENDS OF THE NAM IN THE
WIND/TEMPS IN THIS POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT. NAM 2 METER TEMP
STRUCTURE SUGGESTS INLAND BUST POTENTIAL CONCERN AS WELL. MET MOS
WAS A NICE COMPROMISE BETWEEN VERY COLD 2 METER TEMPS AND VERY WARM
LOOK OF THE GFS MAV MOS. SURFACE LOW/WEAK UPPER WAVE RIPPLES THROUGH
IN THE MORNING WITH ALL MODELS SHOWING LIGHT QPF IN THE SOUTHEAST
CWA. LINGERING ELEVATED CAPE WITH SOME WEAK 850-700 Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE. WILL CARRY SMALL POPS FOR ISOLATED STORM DUE TO THE
CAPE AND PROGGD QPF THOUGH OVERALL AIRMASS ABOVE 800 MILLIBARS IS
PARCHED AND FORCING IS MARGINAL. WITH THE COOLER AND MOIST FLOW
OFF THE LAKE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR MORE COVERAGE OF FOG/
STRATUS THAN CURRENTLY ADVERTISING. LIGHT WIND REGIME SETS UP FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT SO MAY BE A MORE PRIME TIME FOR THIS DEVELOPMENT
AND THIS COULD LINGER INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
FRIDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS WITH 925 TEMPS IN THE TEENS. STILL A LAKE
CONTRIBUTION THOUGH MUCH LESS THAN THURSDAY. STILL THINK THE MET MOS
HAS A BETTER HANDLE ON THINGS THAN THE GFS MOS...SO STEERED IN THAT
DIRECTION IN THE FAR EAST CLOSER TO LAKE MICHIGAN. WILL GO WITH THE
DRY LOOK PLAYED OUT BY THE GFS/ECMWF AND NOT LATCH ONTO THE
EXPLOSIVE VORT THEN NAM IS SHOWING IN CENTRAL WI MIDDAY TIME FRAME.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW
MILD AND MOIST FLOW WITH POTENTIAL FOR WEAK VORTICITY MAXIMA
TRIGGERING A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM TIME TO TIME. NOT A LOT
OF ORGANIZATION TO ANY OF THESE WAVES BUT NECESSITATES SMALL POPS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THESE MOVING THROUGH. GFS DOES SUGGEST A CAP THAT MAY
HOLD SO THE LOWER POPS OK FOR NOW.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW TO MEDIUM
DEEP UPPER TROUGH IN THE WESTERN CONUS WITH RIDGE IN THE EAST.
APPEARS WI WILL BE MORE IN THE ANTICYCLONIC GRIP OF THE RIDGE
KEEPING THINGS WARM AND DRY.
&&
.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...SOME PATCHY IFR FOG POTENTIAL MAINLY IN LOW
AREAS AND RIVER VALLEYS EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS WOULD QUICKLY
DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE.
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON COULD DEVELOP
SOME CUMULUS...BUT ENOUGH OF A CAP AND DRY AIR ABOVE SO LITTLE
DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED. ALTHOUGH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM
EXISTS...DUE TO THE LACK OF FORCING WILL KEEP THE TAF FORECASTS DRY.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH LATE TONIGHT...AND WITH THE
INCREASED MOISTURE SOME FOG POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE ALONG WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF LIFR FOG.
&&
.MARINE...SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON BUT WIND SPEEDS
SHOULD BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SAG
IN FROM THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT THEN A NORTHEAST FLOW AND LAKE
COOLING EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...COLLAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
107 AM EDT FRI MAR 16 2012
.Update...
Issued at 1104 PM EDT Mar 15 2012
Center of the MCV is sliding into eastern Kentucky, taking the more
widespread rain showers with it. However, new showers and storms
have developed in the wake of the MCV where mid level lapse rates
are rapidly steepening. A line of storms has developed across
southern Indiana to just south of Louisville that has been prolific
at producing lightning. Will need to continue to monitor storms for
small hail as low to mid levels cool rapidly and overall freezing
and wet bulb zero heights lower.
Scattered storms will gradually slide east across southern Indiana
and north central Kentucky through the next few hours, then focus
will shift to another convective complex just west of the
Mississippi/Ohio River confluence as it slowly slides east southeast
toward the area. Models show showers and thunderstorms gradually
weakening as they move toward the western CWA overnight, however
still expect scattered to numerous showers and storms to survive,
moving into areas west of I-65 between 3 and 7 am. The earlier side
of the window will be achieved if storms hold together. As we move
through the dawn and mid to late morning hours, coverage of showers
and thunderstorms looks to increase as mid level disturbance moves
into the region. Best chance for precipitation appears to be across
south central Kentucky.
Temperatures have already fallen to around the 60 degree mark and do
not expect them to move a whole lot through the overnight as dew
points remain in the upper 50s and heavy sky cover will linger.
Updated products already out.
Update issued at 915 PM EDT Mar 15 2012
Cancelled the remainder of the watch box across the eastern CWA as
severe threat has ceased. Still watching showers and a few
thunderstorms move across southern Indiana and central Kentucky.
Latest RUC analysis shows MCV center over central Kentucky. This
feature will continue to slide east, taking most of the rain and
convection with it. Will be looking at updating grids over the next
hour or two as things have settled down in the wake of
afternoon/evening storms.
Update issued at 730 PM EDT Mar 15 2012
Have canceled more counties out of the severe thunderstorm watch.
Cells really weakening, but will leave watch over our
eastern/northeastern CWA in case anything randomly develops as MCV
moves through. Update out shortly.
Update issued at 650 PM EDT Mar 15 2012
Have canceled the Severe Thunderstorm Watch west of the leading edge
of the area of convection in central KY. Some cells will continue in
central KY early this evening, along with lightning in the anvil of
this mesoscale convective system (MCS). However, storms are not
expected to be severe anymore in areas where the Watch was canceled
early due to a stabilizing low-level air mass. Have kept the Watch
in effect for east-central and eastern sections of south-central KY.
Will clear these areas when the threat passes. No other changes to
the near term forecast at this time.
Update issued at 615 PM EDT Mar 15 2012
Large area of convection is currently moving thru central KY at this
time. There have been numerous reports of 1 inch diameter hail with
the storms earlier this afternoon with a few golf ball size reports
from the strongest individual cells. Currently, storms have
congealed into a more mesoscale area over central KY. KLVX Doppler
radar shows a pronounced mesoscale convective vortex (MCV) on the
northern end of this area of showers and storms, which has helped
fuel a more organized convective cold pool and some strong wind
gusts (up to 60 mph) over central KY.
Over the next 1-2 hours, the line in central KY will continue
eastward with a decreasing trend in intensity. The more cellular
storms ahead of the line will move east of our area with also a slow
decrease in hail size potential. Later this evening, most of the
rain will move east of our area, but can`t preclude isolated or
scattered nocturnal showers or a few storms overnight again.
As for the Severe Thunderstorm Watch, will evaluate this shortly,
but looks like anything behind the line may be able to be canceled
early. The area of convection in Missouri at this time should not
affect us in the near term given its current movement and as the
atmosphere in our area will have stabilized somewhat given the
current convection in our area.
.Short Term (Tonight through Friday Night)...
Updated at 315 PM EDT Mar 15 2012
...Severe thunderstorm watch for pulse storms/hail...
In the wake of a convective complex that crossed southern Indiana
earlier this morning, cumulus cloud development has been suppressed
until recently. However, the atmosphere has become quite unstable
and scattered to numerous thunderstorms have developed over
southwest IN and central KY and will spread over the entire area by
late afternoon. Given the strong instability across the region and
weak shear, severe pulse storms are expected and will continue and
thus, SPC has given our entire area a severe thunderstorm watch.
Expect this to continue through the late afternoon and early evening
hours. Storms will lose their strength with sunset but scattered
convection will continue through the overnight hours most likely.
For tonight through Friday night, the Lower Ohio Valley will remain
within a very mild and moist early summer-like pattern. Several
disturbances that are hard to nail down the timing will move across
the region. Scattered thunderstorms are quite possible at any time
from tonight through Friday night. For Friday, feel that the best
chance of convection will lie south of the Ohio River.
Expect overnight lows tonight not far from 60, and highs Friday in
the upper 70s.
.Long Term (Saturday - Thursday)...
Updated at 300 PM EDT Mar 15 2012
Persistent and anomalous pattern will continue for much of the
week. Deep SW flow will keep things unsettled for the first part of
the weekend, so will continue to carry a chance POP for Saturday
afternoon. The upper ridge over the Deep South will amplify Sunday
and into the early part of next week, gradually shutting off our
rain chances. Slight chance Sunday and then a dry forecast Mon-Wed.
A bit more uncertainty creeps in around Day 7, as the models show a
deep trof over the Rockies closing off into a deep upper low over
the Southern Plains by Wednesday. ECMWF brings this feature far
enough east for precip to return on Thursday, while the GFS is about
a day slower. The forecast reflects a compromise and will include a
chance POP for Thursday, but reality will be all or nothing
depending on which solution verifies.
Temps will run 20-25 degrees above climo both day and night through
the period.
&&
.Aviation (06Z TAF Issuance)...
Updated at 108 AM EDT Mar 16 2012
Persistent bands of showers and thunderstorms have plagued the SDF
terminal in the wake of a mesoscale convective vortex that formed
with this afternoon/evening convection. This will continue for at
least the next couple of hours before rain chances scoot off to the
east. LEX is starting to see stratiform rain spreading eastward from
the storms which should persist until around 6 am EDT. BWG should
remain dry for the majority of the overnight, however will have to
watch a secondary convective complex moving east from the
Mississippi/Ohio River confluence toward dawn. SDF and LEX should
stay mostly VFR despite the rain showers, although could briefly
fall into the MVFR range for visibilities.
As we move into the daylight hours on Wednesday, expect the best
coverage of showers and perhaps a few rumbles of thunder nearest the
BWG TAF site as decaying convective complex moves over the region.
By mid to late morning, expect that scattered shower and
thunderstorm chances will be on the increase again through the
afternoon and evening as mid level disturbances moves over the area.
Will forecast VFR and amend with any more certain time frames of
thunderstorm activity.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
$$
Updates..........TWF/AL/BJS
Short Term.......JSD/AL
Long Term........RAS
Aviation.........BJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
401 AM EDT FRI MAR 16 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WARM FRONT WAS PUSHING SCATTERED RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY THIS MORNING. LOW
PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES LATER TODAY...PASSING SOUTH
OF THE AREA. A MASSIVE DRY AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY...SETTLING TO OUR SOUTHEAST SUNDAY.
A WEAKENING DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL
BRING CLOUDS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY. THEN HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...BRINGING SUNNY SKIES AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WILL CONTINUE THE FRZG RAIN ADVISORIES FOR NRN NH AND ALL OF WRN
AND CNTRL INTERIOR PORTIONS OF MAINE THRU ERLY THIS MRNG AND
FURTHER E UNTIL MID MRNG. WITH WAA PATTERN SPRDG ACRS REGION
RADAR SHOWS LGT STRATIFORM RN SPREADING INTO THE AREA FM W-E AND
TEMPS BLO FREEZING OVER MOST OF THE AREA SO SOME LGT FRZG RAIN TO
CAUSE SOME PROBLEMS EARLY THIS MORNING. TEMPS OVER MANY OF THE
ADVSRY AREAS A FEW DEGS BLO THE 32 DEG MARK. FIRST BATCH OF LGT
PCPN MOVES THRU ERLY THIS MRNG AS PER HRRR SUGGESTS AND THEN
ANOTHER BATCH LATER IN THE MRNG AND ERLY AFTN BUT BY THEM ALL SFC
TEMPS TO BE WELL ABV FRZG. USED A BLEND OF THE MAV/MET GUID.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
LIGHT RAIN COMES TO AN END BY ERLY EVNG FOLLOWED BY CLEARING AS
HIGH PRES GRDLY BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE SUNNY
AND WARMER AS H85 TEMPS DURING THE AFTN REACH +6 TO +8C. HIGH PRES
CRESTS AND BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE AREA SO WINDS WILL BE NIL.
WITH TEMPS REACHING INTO THE 60S...AN AFTN SEABREEZE CAN BE
EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST. STAYED CLOSE WITH GUID FOR MAX TEMPS WITH
A BIAS TO THE MAV.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS RIDGING BUILDS
OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD. MODEL GUIDANCE IS EXCESSIVELY COOL ON MIN
TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SLIGHTLY TOO COOL ON MAX
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE AFTER
COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING NWS OFFICES.
A WEAKENING DISTURBANCE TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ON
MONDAY...BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THAN SUNDAY
AND SOME MORE CLOUDS. ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY THE RIDGE STRONGLY
RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF WITH TEMPERATURES TOUCHING THE LOWER 70S IN
INTERIOR SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW HAMPSHIRE AND INTERIOR
SOUTHWESTERN MAINE. THIS IS SOME 25F ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. MODEL CONSISTENCY BREAKS DOWN A BIT FOR THURSDAY AS THE
WESTERLIES BEGIN TO SAG TOWARD NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...BREAKING
DOWN THE RIDGE AND THE PERIOD OF ABNORMALLY WARM WEATHER.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MVFR TO IFR CONDS TODAY IN LIGHT RAIN...DURING THE
ERLY MRNG HRS SOME FRZG RN EXPECTED OVER MOST CENTRAL AND WRN
AREAS OF MAINE AND NRN NH. BY TNGT CONDS IMPROVE TO VFR FM NW-SE.
LONG TERM...EXTENDED PERIOD OF VFR EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...HIGH PRES SETTLES OVER THE WATERS WITH VERY LITTLE PRES
GRADIENT SO WINDS/SEAS TO BE MINIMAL THRU SATURDAY. NO FLAGS.
LONG TERM...WINDS AND WAVES EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
VERY DRY AND VERY WARM CONDITIONS WILL SET UP ON SUNDAY...THEN
AGAIN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BE PROBLEMATIC...BUT WITH DIMINISHING SNOW
COVER AND TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL...PRE-GREENUP FUELS WILL
DRY RAPIDLY.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MEZ007-
012-019.
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MEZ008-
009-013-014-020>022.
NH...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NHZ001-
002-004.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MARINE
LONG TERM...STJEAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
119 AM EDT FRI MAR 16 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT...THEN
PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND ON SATURDAY SETTLING TO OUR SOUTHEAST SUNDAY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...PROVIDING FAIR AND WARM WEATHER.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL NOON/...
1AM UPDATE: HAVE ISSUED FRZG RAIN ADVSRIES FOR NRN NH AND ALL OF
WRN AND CNTRL INTERIOR PORTIONS OF MAINE. WITH WAA PATTERN SPRDG
ACRS REGION RADAR SHOWS LGT STRATIFORM RN SPREADING INTO THE AREA
FM W-E AND TEMPS BLO FREEZING OVER MOST OF THE AREA SO EXPECT SOME
LGT FRZG RAIN TO CAUSE SOME PROBLEMS EARLY THIS MORNING. BY USING
INPPUT OBS DATA HAD TO LOWER TEMPS OVER MANY AREAS A FEW DEGS
BRINGING THEM BLO THE 32 DEG MARK. FIRST BATCH OF LGT PCPN MOVES
THRU ERLY THIS MRNG AS PER HRRR SUGGESTS AND THEN ANOTHER BATCH
LATER IN THE MRNG AND ERLY AFTN BUT BY THEM ALL SFC TEMPS TO BE
WELL ABV FRZG.
PREV DISC;
WILL UPDATE TO INCREASE CHC OF PRCP OVER WRN ZONES PER LATEST
RADAR LOOP. WILL CONT TO FCST -SHRA OVERNIGHT WITH PSBL -FZRA
OVER MORE NRN/ERN/HIGHER ELEV AREAS. ALSO ADJUSTED SKY COVER FCST
THRU THIS EVENING BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE LOOP. TREND WILL BE
FOR SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY OR CLOUDY THROUGHOUT. OTRW ANY
CHANGES JUST MINOR TWEAKS.
EXPECT A WIDE RANGE IN OVERNIGHT TEMPS DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER
WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM ABOVE FREEZING TO BELOW FREEZING. ANY
PRECIPITATION TONIGHT IS LIKELY TO BE SPOTTY...AND MAINLY ACROSS
WESTERN SECTIONS WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO BE ABOVE
FREEZING. NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS ARE LIKELY TO DROP BELOW
FREEZING TONIGHT BUT LESSER CHC OF PRCP...STILL COULD BE A SLGT
CHC TO MAYBE A CHC OF -SHRA OR -FZRA...BUT NOT ENOUGH -FZRA TO
WARRANT ANY ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM /NOON THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
LGT RAIN SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS WERE A BLEND OF MET/MAV
TEMPERATURES. WITH THE SURFACE LOW PASSING TO OUR SOUTH...ONSHORE
FLOW...AND EXPECTED PRECIPITATION...WENT ON THE COOL SIDE OF
GUIDANCE FRIDAY.
RAPID IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SFC RIDGING CROSSES THE CWA ON SAT BENEATH NW FLOW
ALOFT...PROVIDING A FAIR DAY WITH MILD TEMPS IN THE 50S. LARGE
HIGH AMPLITUDE 500MB RIDGING BEGINS TO DEVELOP ON SUNDAY...AND
LOCKS IN OVER ERN THIRD OF THE CONUS EARLY TO MIDDLE NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR VERY MILD TEMPS AND GENERALLY FAIR WX THROUGH
THIS PERIOD. MID LVL WAA COULD THROW SOME CLOUDS ACROSS THE CWA
LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON...BUT OTHERWISE TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE
60S MONDAY...AND INTO THE 70S TUE AND WED...ESPECIALLY INLAND...AS
SEA BREEZE LOOKS TO DEVELOP...KEEPING THE COAST COOLER. STILL...WE
ARE POTENTIALLY LOOKING AT SEVERAL DAYS /SUN-WED/ WHERE TEMPS WILL
RUN 15-25F ABV NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...VFR TO MVFR CIG AND
UNRESTRICTED VSBY AT THIS TIME SHOULD BE LOWERING OVERNIGHT WITH
LGT PRCP ARRIVING LATE TNGT INTO FRIDAY WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING
IFR AND PERHAPS LIFR IN SOME AREAS. MOST PRCP WILL FALL AS -SHRA
THOUGH MORE NRN/ERN/HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS COULD SEE SOME -FZRA.
LINGERING AREAS OF MVFR FRIDAY NIGHT IN FOG.
LONG TERM...EXTENDED PERIOD OF VFR SAT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...WILL UPDATE TO
INPUT LATEST OBSERVED DATA RESULTING IN MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
PREVIOUS FCST. STILL WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY BELOW SCA LEVELS
THRU THE SHORT TERM.
LONG TERM...NO FLAGS ANTICIPATED...ALTHOUGH SW FLOW COULD GUST TO
20 KTS OR SO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MEZ007-
012-019.
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
MEZ008-009-013-014-020>022.
NH...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NHZ001-
002-004.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
223 AM EDT FRI MAR 16 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL IMPACT THE AREA WITH THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTS A SIGNIFICANT FRONTAL BNDRY ACRS THE
EASTERN SHORE...IT APPEARS TO HAVE STOPPED ITS MOVEMENT SW (AS A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT)...AND IS NOW BEGINNING TO SLOWLY RETREAT BACK
TO THE NE. EARLIER SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE NOW JUST ABOUT COMPLETELY
GONE W/ THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE MD ERN SHORE
ALONG THE BOUNDARY. HAVE DROPPED POPS MOST AREAS AND KEPT LOW CHC
POPS GOING ON THE EASTERN SHORE AND IN FAR SE VA THOUGH MIDNIGHT.
ONLY OTHER PRECIP ISSUE WILL BE FROM MULTIPLE MCS CLUSTERS W OF
THE MTNS. MODELS ARE NOT DOING A VERY GOOD JOB CURRENTLY SO
CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW IN THEIR ABILITY TO FCST THE PRECIP
CHANCES OVERNIGHT. OVERALL THE RUC SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE
ON CURRENT CONDITIONS AND WILL FOLLOW ITS SOLUTION TO SOME EXTENT.
BASED ON RADAR TRENDS...IF MCS`S DO HOLD TOGETHER...PRECIP WOULD
LIKELY NOT MAKE IT TO AKQ CWA UNTIL AFTER 08Z-09Z. HAVE A 20% POP
ALL ZONES AFTER 08Z TO HANDLE THIS. DESPITE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MSTR...LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH WIND/MIXING TO INHIBIT FOG DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT (ALTHOUGH SHALLOW/PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESP IN
PLACES THAT RECEIVED RAIN).
TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY CONTINUE TO SHOW A LOT OF VARIABILITY...GENLY
IN THE 60S TO LWR 70S IN VA/NE NC...WITH UPPER 40S AT OXB AND IN
THE 50S OVER THE REST OF THE ERN SHORE. LOWS LOOK TO RANGE FROM
THE UPR 40S COASTAL MD...TO UPR 50S/AROUND 60 OVER SE VA/NE NC
(TEMPS ON THE ERN SHORE WILL BE STEADY OR MAY RISE SLIGHTLY AS THE
BOUNDARY LIFTS BACK N).
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY: A SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVES AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL
RESULT IN MORE PCPN FRIDAY. THE ENTIRE AREA WILL HAVE AT LEAST 40
PERCENT POPS FRIDAY. THE BEST INSTABILITY AND GREATEST MOISTURE
WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN PORTION AND INCLUDED LIKELY POPS GENERALLY
SOUTH OF I-64 BUT CUTTING BUT DID NOT INCLUDE THE IMMEDIATE COAST
OR ALBEMARLE SOUND AREA WHERE COOL WATER LIMIT THE INSTABILITY. A
CLOUD COVER AND PCPN WILL HOLD DOWN TEMPERATURES SOME WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 80S EXCEPT IN THE 70S ON THE LOWER EASTERN
SHORE.
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY: DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO FILTER INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AND PCPN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH OVER NORTHERN
PORTIONS. SLIGHT CHC TO CHC WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA WITH TSTMS ALSO POSSIBLE OVER INLAND AREAS.
EASTERLY WINDS WILL HOLD DOWN TEMPERATURES OVER EASTERN PORTIONS ON
SATURDAY. LOW FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 50S. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE 60S OVER THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST RANGING TO THE UPPER 70S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT COUNTIES.
SUNDAY: UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH A WEAK
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTION FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS BOTH SUNDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RUN IN THE 70S EXCEPT 60S ALONG THE
COAST AND LOWER EASTERN SHORE. LOWS WILL BE A BIT COOLER WITH
READINGS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ANCHORED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK. SOME MOISTURE ROTATING
CLOCKWISE AROUND THE HIGH COULD OCCASIONALLY STREAM INTO THE
REGION BUT SHOULD ONLY RESULT IN SOME CLOUDINESS RATHER THAN
PRECIPITATION. OVERALL...A DRYING AND WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED
FOR INLAND AREAS WHILE COASTAL LOCATIONS SHOULD RUN ABOUT 5 TO 10
DEGREES COOLER DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A RATHER CHALLENGING FORECAST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
AS UNSETTLED CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC.
AS OF 06Z...A SHALLOW FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS DRAPED ROUGHLY ALONG
THE VA/MD BORDER. NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...MARINE STRATUS HAS
OVERSPREAD SBY WHERE CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AOB 200FT AND VSBY
SHOULD BE AROUND 1SM OR LESS THROUGH 12Z...BEFORE CONDITIONS
GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH 15Z. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL SOUTH
OF THE BOUNDARY...ALTHOUGH A BRIEF SHOWER IS POSSIBLE AT ANY
TERMINAL.
THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD LIFT TO THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED WEAK LOW PRESSURE DROP
IN FROM THE NW. THIS SHOULD TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. CONDITIONS
SHOULD MAINLY BE VFR...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF REDUCED FLIGHT
CRITERIA IN ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THRU THE REGION FROM THE NORTH LATE
FRI/EARLY SAT WITH A CHC FOR SHOWERS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
A SURFACE BOUNDARY IS PRESENTLY SITUATED ROUGHLY ALONG THE POTOMAC
ACROSS THE CHESAPEAKE BAY (NEAR THE VA/MD BORDER) AND OFF THE
COAST AROUND CHINCOTEAGUE. THIS IS A FARTHER SOUTHWARD ADVANCEMENT
THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED HENCE THERE IS MUCH LESS OF A SOUTHERLY
SURGE OVER THE BAY. GIVEN THIS...THE SCA FLAG HAS BEEN LOWERED AS
SPEEDS SHOULD PRIMARILY BE AOB 15KT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW
20KT GUSTS AT ELEVATED SENSORS.
ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL BE A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND
AVERAGE 10-15 KT WITH STRONGER GUSTS POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
SEAS SHOULD PRIMARILY BE 2-3 FT...ALTHOUGH NORTHERN AREAS OUT NEAR
20NM COULD EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF 4 FT SEAS WITH THE SOUTHERLY SURGE
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST...THEN EAST...AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY SETTLES SOUTH OF THE
REGION SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES DOWN ALONG
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THIS HIGH DRIFTS SOUTHWARD AND BECOMES
ANCHORED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY THROUGH LATE NEXT
WEEK...CREATING RELATIVELY BENIGN CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
&&
.CLIMATE...
SEVERAL RECORD HIGHS HAVE BEEN SET TODAY...RIC HIT 86/ ORF HIT
87...SBY HIT 80 AND ECG HIT 86. SEE RER`S FOR DETAILS.
(PREVIOUS) RECORD HIGH TEMPS THURS (3/15) AND FRI (3/16)
3/15 3/16
RIC 82/2007 85/1945
ORF 84/1973 84/1945
SBY 80/1990 83/1945
ECG 86/1973 87/1945
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LSA
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LSA
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...AJZ/BMD
CLIMATE...AKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
205 AM CDT FRI MAR 16 2012
.DISCUSSION...
MORE RECORD MAX TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BY THE WAYSIDE
TODAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND AS UNPRECEDENTED MARCH HEAT WAVE
CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK. AVERAGE TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS WILL BE ABOUT 25 TO 35 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD DURING THE PERIOD...AS
SURFACE DEWPOINTS SURGE INTO THE 50S.
THE LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL...SHOWED A VERY WAVY PATTERN IN THE MID
LEVEL AND HINT AT 500 MB TOO. SATELLITE IMAGERY OFF THE IR LOOP
SHOWED SOME CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. MODELS SHOWED SOME
INSTABLITY OVER EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WISCONSIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
BY MID AFTERNOON...INHIBITION IS WEAK OVER THIS AREA. ANY UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE ASSOCIATED WITH LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER WESTERN U.S.
COULD TRIGGER SOME WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS...WILL DEEPEN OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S...FOCUSING
ANY SHORT WAVE ENERGY OVER THE ROCKIES AND WESTERN PLAINS.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE AS THE UPPER TROUGH STARTS TO MOVE EAST INTO THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR WITH MAXS IN THE 60S AND 70S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S.
&&
.AVIATION.../06Z TAF ISSUANCE/
VERY DRY SURFACE DEWPONTS CONTINUE TO ADVECT INTO THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST TO
EAST WIND. THIS MAY LIMIT EXTENT/DEVELOPMENT OF FOG OVER NORTHERN
TAF SITES. HIGHER DEWPOINTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN BORDER AND SHOULD
SEE SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT THERE. THIS MAY AFFECT KRWF AND KEAU AND
TO A LESSER DEGREE KRNH/KMSP. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR DEWPOINT
TRENDS...THOUGH THE 00Z RUC AND NAM HAVE COME IN DRIER. ANY FOG
THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD DISSIPATE THROUGH 15Z-16Z AND MAY LIFT INTO A
MVFR CEILING FOR A TIME. ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN AREAS AS THE WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH. EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE SOME AND CLOUDS TO LIFT
TO VFR THROUGH 19Z OR SO AND MAY SEE SOME WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 20
KNOTS.
KMSP...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY MORNING. MAY YET SEE SOME MVFR FOG
FORM TOWARD DAWN...BUT ANTICIPATE IT TO BE RATHER BRIEF. MAY SEE
CUMULUS FORM AS WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE REGION AND THEN CLEAR OUT
DURING THE EVENING AS FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF REGION. WINDS SHOULD
BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AS WELL WITH PASSAGE OF FRONT AND COULD GUST
15-20 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH PERHAPS SOME FOG DEVELOPING LATE AGAIN. MENTIONED
6SM BR AT 10Z/17 FOR NOW.
//OUTLOOK...
SAT...VFR WITH -SHRA POSSIBLE SOUTH AND EAST OF MSP.
SUN-TUES...SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
JM/DE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1055 PM CDT THU MAR 15 2012
.UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
&&
.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT MAR 15 2012/
HARD TO ADD TO WHAT HAS ALREADY BEEN SAID ABOUT THIS UNPRECEDENTED
MARCH HEAT WAVE...BUT BELIEVE IT OR NOT...IT WILL TAKE ANOTHER
STEP UP FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS DEEP SRLY FLOW TAKES OVER. WILL
BE INTERESTING TO SEE...BUT FOR THE TWIN CITIES...IT IS ALMOST A
CERTAINTY THAT WE WILL BREAK THE RECORD FOR THE WARMEST LOW EVER
RECORDED IN MARCH /CURRENTLY 57/...AS LOWS SAT AND SUN WILL
STRUGGLE TO GET BELOW 60. ALSO WITHIN REACH SAT AND SUN IN
PARTICULAR WILL BE THE ALL TIME RECORD HIGH FOR THE MONTH WHICH
STANDS AT 83. DO NOT HAVE TEMPERATURES THAT HIGH IN THE
FORECAST...BUT EVEN IF WE HIT 80 THIS WEEKEND...IT WOULD BE THE
EARLIEST ON RECORD THE TWIN CITIES HAS HIT THIS MARK /CURRENTLY
THE FIRST 80 DEGREE HIGH OCCURRED ON THE 23RD/. AFTER
THAT...GFS/ECMWF FINALLY COMING INTO AGREEMENT ON SLOWLY PUSHING A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA MON/TUE...WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
AS IT DOES SO. THIS FRONT ALSO LOOKS TO BREAK THE HEAT A
BIT...KNOCKING HIGHS BACK FROM AROUND 30 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TO A
MORE MODEST 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY MID-WEEK.
FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA YESTERDAY HAS DONE WHAT FRONTS
TYPICALLY DO IN THE SUMMER...STALLED OUT AND COME A BIT DIFFUSE OVER
IOWA INTO NRN IL. RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION ASSOCIATED WITH DEPARTING
UPPER JET OVER NRN LAKE SUPERIOR BROUGHT IN A RATHER THICK BLANKET
OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS TODAY...KEEPING MUCH OF THE AREA ABOUT 10
DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY...AND KEEPING MOST FOLKS BELOW
RECORD HIGHS. TONIGHT...THESE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE EAST...WITH
CONDITIONS BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR THIS EVENING. FOR
TONIGHT...DIFFUSE BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH WILL BEGIN LIFTING BACK
NORTH...WITH A RATHER ILL DEFINED WIND SHIFT...BUT GOOD PUSH OF
MOISTURE...WITH 50 DEGREE DEWPOINTS RETURNING BY FRIDAY EVENING
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. THE MAIN CONCERN TONIGHT WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS/DENSE FOG. STRATUS WAS OBSERVED THIS MORNING
ACROSS SRN IOWA...WITH DENSE FOG ACROSS SRN WI/NRN IL. THIS
AIRMASS WILL BE HEADING OUR DIRECTION TONIGHT. SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL BE QUITE BAGGY...AND WITH DEWPS SLOWLY INCREASING
THROUGH THE NIGHT...WE WILL BE SETTING OURSELVES UP FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG. BUFKIT HYDROLAPSES OFF THE NAM CERTAINLY SUPPORT
THE DENSE FOG IDEA...WITH THE GFSLAMP DEVELOPING DENSE FOG ACROSS
A WIDE SWATH OF THE UPPER MIDWEST...FROM ERN MN/IA...EAST ACROSS
ALL OF WI AND MI ALONG WITH NRN IL AND IN. LOOKING AT THE BOUNDARY
LAYER RH...THE NAM/GFS HAVE THE HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS WRN WI
ARCING BACK INTO CENTRAL MN...SO THIS IS WHERE AREAS OF FOG IS
MENTIONED IN THE GRIDS. HAVE ADDED THE FOG MENTION INTO THE HWO AND
WILL LET LATER SHIFTS DECIDE ON IF ANY ADVISORIES ARE NEEDED.
FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ABOUT THE ONLY THING THAT WILL
SLOW TEMPERATURES DOWN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR MORNING
FOG/STRATUS. 925-850 MB RH FROM ALL OF THE MODELS CERTAINLY
INDICATING ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS AROUND TO DO JUST
THAT...WITH BOTH THE GFS/NAM CU RULES INDICATING BKN CIGS
DEVELOPING FRI AFTERNOON ACROSS ERN MN/WRN WI WHERE THE RICHEST BL
MOISTURE WILL RESIDE. THIS MAY RESULT IN ERN AREAS BEING A BIT
COOLER FOR FRIDAY...BUT COME SAT...THE CU RULES SUBSIDE...WITH THE
FOG/STRATUS POTENTIAL BEING SOMEWHAT LOWER...SO THERE IS A GOOD
CHANCE CURRENT FORECAST MAY BE UNDER DOING HIGHS...ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING MIXING DOWN TO 875 MB OFF THE NAM BRINGS ACROSS HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S EAST TO LOWER 80S WEST. A SIMILAR PERFORMANCE IS
EXPECTED FOR TEMPERATURES SUN...AS THE WARM BUBBLE OF AIR AT H85
BECOMES CENTERED FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO WRN MN. A SLIGHT COOL DOWN
LOOKS IN STORM FOR MONDAY AS ONE...COOLER H85 AIR COMES UP FROM
THE SW AND TWO...CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE ON THE INCREASE FROM THE
WEST AS A FRONT SLOWLY MOVES EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. STILL LOOKS
LIKE WE HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL AT LEAST WED BEFORE WE SEE HIGHS BELOW
THE 60S AGAIN.
PRECIPITATION WAS A BIT OF A TOUGH CALL HERE. BY TOMORROW...WILL
SEE 500-1500 J/KG OF MU CAPE MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH THE 50 DEG
DEWPS...AND THIS ONLY INCREASES THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...THERE ARE NO WELL DEFINED SFC CONVERGENCE BOUNDARIES OR
UPPER SHORT WAVES PRESENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND TO HELP FOCUS
CONVECTION. IN ADDITION...MOISTURE IS CONFINED TO THE LOWEST
LEVELS...WITH DEEPER SATURATION/MOISTURE LACKING. AS A
RESULT...KEPT THE WEEKEND FORECAST DRY...THOUGH AN ISOLD
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. HELD PRECIP CHANCES BACK TO MONDAY AFTERNOON...WHEN
FRONT/UPPER SUPPORT FINALLY STARTS APPROACHING WRN MN...ALLOWING
FOR BETTER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. THIS FRONT WILL BE TAKING ITS
TIME IN CLEARING THE AREA DUE TO THE AMPLIFIED NATURE OF THE
FLOW...AND HAVE HIGH CHANCE POPS SLOWLY MARCHING EAST ACROSS THE
AREA FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT SHOULD BE
FAR ENOUGH EAST/SOUTH OF THE AREA TO END PRECIP CHANCES WED
NIGHT...BUT AS THE FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH...THE GFS/ECMWF CUT
OFF A LOW OVER OK AND SLOWLY DRIFT IT NORTH NEXT WEEK...KEEPING THE
THREAT FOR RAIN GOING ACROSS THE SOUTH THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION.../06Z TAF ISSUANCE/
VERY DRY SURFACE DEWPONTS CONTINUE TO ADVECT INTO THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST TO
EAST WIND. THIS MAY LIMIT EXTENT/DEVELOPMENT OF FOG OVER NORTHERN TAF
SITES. HIGHER DEWPOINTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN BORDER AND SHOULD SEE
SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT THERE. THIS MAY AFFECT KRWF AND KEAU AND TO A
LESSER DEGREE KRNH/KMSP. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR DEWPOINT
TRENDS...THOUGH THE 00Z RUC AND NAM HAVE COME IN DRIER. ANY FOG
THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD DISSIPATE THROUGH 15Z-16Z AND MAY LIFT INTO
A MVFR CEILING FOR A TIME. ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN AREAS AS THE
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE SOME AND CLOUDS TO
LIFT TO VFR THROUGH 19Z OR SO AND MAY SEE SOME WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS
OF 20 KNOTS.
KMSP...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY MORNING. MAY YET SEE SOME MVFR FOG
FORM TOWARD DAWN...BUT ANTICIPATE IT TO BE RATHER BRIEF. MAY SEE
CUMULUS FORM AS WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE REGION AND THEN CLEAR OUT
DURING THE EVENING AS FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF REGION. WINDS SHOULD
BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AS WELL WITH PASSAGE OF FRONT AND COULD GUST
15-20 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH PERHAPS SOME FOG DEVELOPING LATE AGAIN. MENTIONED
6SM BR AT 10Z/17 FOR NOW.
//OUTLOOK...
SAT...VFR WITH -SHRA POSSIBLE SOUTH AND EAST OF MSP.
SUN-TUES...SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
MPG/DE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1235 AM CDT FRI MAR 16 2012
.AVIATION...06Z KGRI TAF. PRIMARY ISSUE INVOLVES POTENTIAL FOG/LOW
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT DURING THE FIRST 9 HOURS OR SO OF THE PERIOD.
THE NIGHT IS STARTING OUT WITH VERY LIGHT/VARIABLE BREEZES AND
HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER RELATIVE HUMIDITY NOW THAT DEWPOINTS HAVE
INCREASED CONSIDERABLY OVER 24 HOURS AGO. THE OBVIOUS IMPLICATION
IS THAT AT LEAST MVFR VISIBILITY COULD TAKE HOLD AT ANY TIME.
ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE NOT UNANIMOUS ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF DENSE FOG
EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH THE BEST FOCUS APPEARING TO RESIDE 20-50
MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE TERMINAL...WILL CONTINUE THEME FROM
PREVIOUS FEW TAF ISSUANCES WITH LIFR CEILING/VISIBILITY IN A
TEMPO GROUP CENTERED AROUND SUNRISE. AGAIN THOUGH...DENSE FOG WITH
VSBY 1/4SM OR LESS IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. ASSUMING FOG DOES
ULTIMATELY SET IN...ANTICIPATE A FAIRLY STEADY BURN-OFF DURING THE
MORNING...AS SOUTHERLY BREEZES START PICKING UP A BIT. HAVE AIMED
FOR A 15Z RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS...WITH ONLY FEW/SCATTERED FAIR
WEATHER CUMULUS ANTICIPATED DURING THE BALANCE OF THE DAY. TOWARD
THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD SATURDAY EVENING...A STRENGTHENING LOW
LEVEL JET STREAM COULD PUSH LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IN THE LOWEST
2000 FT AGL CLOSE TO NEEDING A FORMAL MENTION...BUT WILL HOLD OFF
FOR NOW.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CDT THU MAR 15 2012/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. MAIN FOCUS IS ON POTENTIAL
FOR FOG/STRATUS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. A FAIRLY LARGE AREA OF
STRATUS ENCOMPASSED THE SOUTHEAST THIRD OF OUR CWA THIS MORNING AND
THE LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO ERODE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. YORK
VSBY DROPPED TO A QUARTER MILE OR LESS FOR THE SECOND DAY IN A ROW
AND THE LOW VSBY LINGERED TO AROUND 15Z. MOISTURE AXIS AROUND
MIDDAY WAS LOCATED FROM KOLU TO KHSI TO KHLC WITH DPS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THIS LINE IN THE 50S. MODELS INDICATE MOISTURE AXIS WILL
EXPAND FARTHER NORTH AND WEST TONIGHT AS WINDS TRANSITION SOUTHERLY
AND REMAIN LIGHT. EXPECT STRATUS TO REDEVELOP ACROSS A LARGER
AREA...AND ENCOMPASS A GOOD PORTION OF OUR CWA. FOG/REDUCED VSBYS
HAVE BEEN A FAIRLY COMMON THEME IN THIS REGIME AND PLAN TO GO WITH
PERSISTENCE IN THIS PATTERN. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
VSBY RESTRICTIONS FRIDAY MORNING BASED ON RUC13 VSBYS PROGS AND
MODEL NUMERICAL GUIDANCE. MODELS DO INDICATE A LITTLE MORE IN THE
WAY OF MIXING OVER THE STRATUS...AND CONTEMPLATED ADDING IN SOME
DRIZZLE MENTION...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN DRIZZLE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH
ATTM. IN HIGHER MOISTURE TONIGHT...GENERALLY LOOKING AT MILDER LOWS
RANGING FM NEAR 40 ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF STRATUS...TO LOW/MID 50S
IN THE SOUTHEAST CWA WHERE DPS ARE HIGHER.
LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO ERODE AROUND MID DAY ON FRIDAY AND
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON. IN
BETTER MIXING CONDITIONS...TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 70S TO THE
LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS.
LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
BEGINNING THE LONG TERM...MUCH OF THE CONUS REMAINS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
BEGINS TO PUSH EAST JUST OFF THE WEST COAST. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
CONTINUES TO DEEPEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND...PUSHING THE TROUGH AXIS
ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BY SUNDAY. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND MONTANA BY
SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL HELP INCREASE A PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND THUS INCREASING SOUTH WINDS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TO NEAR WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO SURGE NORTHWARD FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO. WHILE THE EC KEEPS MOISTURE WELL TO THE SOUTH
ON SUNDAY...THE GFS BRINGS THE MOISTURE MUCH FARTHER NORTH MAINLY
ACROSS FAR EASTERN NEBRASKA AND IOWA. BOTH THE GFS AND THE EC
CONTINUE TO SURGE MOISTURE NORTHWARD ON MONDAY...INCLUDING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA AND KANSAS. BOTH MODELS
ALSO HINT AT THE POSSIBILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND POTENTIALLY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...AS MU CAPES APPROACH 500 TO 1500 J/KG.
THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM PUSHES A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION
TUESDAY AFTERNOON DECREASING HIGH TEMPERATURES BY ABOUT 10 DEGREES
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...BOTH MODELS CONTINUE
TO PUSH ANY MOISTURE FARTHER EAST ACROSS IOWA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO DEEPEN FINALLY
CLOSING OFF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS TEXAS. AT THE SURFACE...THE
EC IS BEGINNING TO LOOK MORE LIKE THE GFS WITH A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SURGING NORTH FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS EASTERN
TEXAS. THIS LOW LOOKS TO SPIN NORTH ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA TEXAS
PANHANDLE WRAPPING AROUND YET ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS
KANSAS AND SOUTHERN NEBRASKA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CMF
LONG TERM...SALTZMAN
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
444 AM EDT FRI MAR 16 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
THE COMBINATION OF POTENT ENERGY ALOFT AND A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL PRODUCE OCCASIONAL SHOWERS...ALONG WITH A RUMBLE OF THUNDER
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. A SLOW CLEARING TREND WILL DEVELOP
BY LATE TODAY...WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURNING BY THE
WEEKEND. A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE THE NORTH
COUNTRY WITH MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS THRU MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT FRIDAY...FCST CHALLENGE THRU TODAY WL BE TIMING OF
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER...ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED TEMPS. WATER
VAPOR SHOWS POTENT 5H VORT ENTERING THE SLV ATTM...WITH PLENTY OF
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY ACRS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE SLV ATTM.
THIS SYSTEM...ALONG WITH GOOD 850 TO 500MB RH AND PWS VALUES
APPROACHING 1.0"...WHICH IS 200 TO 300% ABOVE NORMAL...WL PRODUCE
A BAND OF MODERATE TO LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL ACRS THE FA TODAY.
USING THE RUC13 AND NAM12 700 TO 500MB UVVS AND RH FIELDS...ALONG
WITH LATEST RADAR TRENDS...WOULD SUPPORT PRECIP BEING ACRS THE SLV
BTWN 06-09Z...DACKS FROM 09Z-12Z...CPV BTWN 12-15Z..AND INTO
EASTERN VT BY 18Z TODAY. GIVEN PLENTY OF LIGHTNING ACTIVITY
UPSTREAM AND SW VALUES BTWN -1 AND -2 TODAY...ALONG WITH SOME WEAK
ELEVATED CAPE VALUES WL CONT TO MENTION ISOLATED THUNDER CHCS THRU
21Z...BUT DECREASE CHCS FROM WEST TO EAST...AS INSTABILITY AXIS
SHIFTS EAST OF OUR CWA. GIVEN...STRONG SFC TO 800MB THETA E
CONVERGENCE AND AXIS OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WITH PWS NEAR
1.0"...WL MENTION POPS NEAR 100%...AS BAND OF MODERATE PRECIP
MOVES ACRS OUR CWA TODAY. AVERAGE QPF VALUES WL RANGE FROM 0.25 TO
0.75"...WITH SOME SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE STRONGER
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS...ESPECIALLY ACRS NNY. TEMPS TODAY WL BE
TRICKY...GIVEN CLOUDS/PRECIP...BUT SOME CLRING SHOULD DEVELOP ACRS
THE SLV/NORTHERN NY BY THIS AFTN. SOUNDINGS SHOW LIMITED MIXING
TODAY...BUT WITH SOME SUN THIS AFTN...FEEL SLV/CPV WL REACH THE
L50S...WITH MID 50S NEAR VSF...WHILE CENTRAL/EASTERN
VT...INCLUDING THE NEK STRUGGLE IN THE 40S. TONIGHT...1028MB HIGH
PRES BUILDS ACRS OUR CWA...WITH CLRING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
THESE CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH LEFTOVER BL MOISTURE FROM PREVIOUS
RAINFALL...WL RESULT IN AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING. NAM SOUNDINGS
SHOW PLENTY OF SFC TO 875MB...EVEN AT BTV...THEREFORE WL MENTION
SOME FOG IN FCST TONIGHT. LOWS WL RANGE FROM THE U20S SLK/MTNS/NEK
TO M/U30S WARMER/WIDER VALLEYS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT FRIDAY...
RECORD BREAKING TEMPS ANTICIPATED ON SUNDAY AND INTO
NEXT WEEK...
THE RECORD IN BTV ON SUNDAY MARCH 18TH IS 62 SET BACK IN 1945...AND
OUR FCST TEMP AT BTV FOR SUNDAY IS 74F. MEANWHILE...THE RECORD HIGH
AT MPV IS ONLY 58 SET BACK IN 1966...AND WE ARE FORECASTING A HIGH
TEMP OF 72F ON SUNDAY MARCH 18TH. SEE CLIMO SECTION BELOW FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.
MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS ACRS OUR CWA...WHILE SFC HIGH PRES SHIFTS
INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND BY 12Z SUNDAY. THE COMBINATION OF 2 TO 3
STD ABOVE NORMAL HGHT FIELDS AND 925MB TO 850MB TEMPS WL PRODUCE
RECORD BREAKING TEMPS ACRS OUR FA ON SUNDAY. PROGGED 925MB TEMPS
BTWN 12C AND 14C...SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE U60S MTNS TO M70S WARMER
VALLEYS ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...925MB TEMPS ON SATURDAY RANGE BTWN 8C
NEK TO 12C SLV...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE M/U50S NEK/MTNS TO M/U60S
WARMER VALLEYS LOCATIONS. TEMPS WL BE COOLER...MAINLY 50S TO NEAR
60F...ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKE CHAMPLAIN SHORELINE...DUE TO WATER
TEMPS ONLY IN THE 30S. LARGE SUBSIDENCE AND ASSOCIATED DEEP DRY
LAYER WL PROVIDE FA WITH MAINLY CLR SKIES WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
ANTICIPATED. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED BOTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 444 AM EDT FRIDAY...WARMER AND MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. SEE THE CLIMATE
SECTION BELOW FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING
A VERY STRONG HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AT
500 MB WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHILE AT
THE SURFACE A BERMUDA HIGH WILL SET UP WHICH WILL BRING
UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD. MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO LOOK TOO COOL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...SO HAVE GONE AT LEAST 3 TO 6 DEGREES OR MORE ABOVE THIS
GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. GFS MODEL
SHOWING 925 MB TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOWING
TEMPERATURES RUNNING 12C- 15C...WHILE THE ECMWF MODEL IS EVEN
WARMER WITH 925 MB TEMPERATURES RUNNING FROM 14C-18C THROUGH THE
PERIOD. MODELS SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES WITH THE THURSDAY
FORECAST...WITH THE GFS MODEL BRINGING A COLD FRONT SOUTH FROM
CANADA THAT APPROACHES THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER BY EARLY THURSDAY
EVENING. THE GFS MODEL ALSO BREAKS DOWN THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE AT
500 MB RIDGE ON THURSDAY. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE ECMWF MODEL
MAINTAINS A STRONG UPPER RIDGE AT 500 MB ON THURSDAY...AND KEEPS
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT MUCH FURTHER NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL QUEBEC ON
THURSDAY. PREFER THE ECMWF SOLUTION FOR THURSDAY AT THIS TIME
...AND WILL GO WITH A DRY AND WARM FORECAST FOR THURSDAY. FEEL
GIVEN THE STRONG HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE AT 500 MB...I FEEL THE GFS
MODEL IS TOO FAST IN TRYING TO BREAK DOWN SUCH A STONG HIGH
AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION TODAY BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
...ALONG WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS. HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY
MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS OR THE USE OF THE CB TERM FOR CLOUD COVER
AT ANY OF THE TAFS SITES AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE LOW CHANCE THAT A
PARTICULAR TERMINAL WILL GET A THUNDERSTORM. EXPECTING RAIN SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED
TONIGHT...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA. LIGHT
WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME AREAS OF
FOG FORMING...ESPECIALLY IN THOSE AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL
TODAY.
OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION.
&&
.CLIMATE...
MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ANTICIPATED...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MANY
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE BROKEN FROM SUNDAY MARCH 18TH THRU
WEDS MARCH 21ST. BELOW IS A LIST OF RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR SUNDAY
MARCH 18TH THRU WEDS MARCH 21ST.
BTV:
MARCH 18TH: 62 (1945)
MARCH 19TH: 60 (1894)
MARCH 20TH: 70 (1903)
MARCH 21ST: 68 (1946)
MPV:
MARCH 18TH: 58 (1966)
MARCH 19TH: 57 (1968
MARCH 20TH: 62 (1976)
MARCH 21ST: 54 (2003)
1V4:
MARCH 18TH: 66 (1927)
MARCH 19TH: 71 (1903)
MARCH 20TH: 75 (1903)
MARCH 21ST: 71 (1903)
MSS:
MARCH 18TH: 66 (1966)
MARCH 19TH: 60 (1986)
MARCH 20TH: 66 (1976)
MARCH 21ST: 62 (1976)
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH
CLIMATE...TABER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
403 AM EDT FRI MAR 16 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
THE COMBINATION OF POTENT ENERGY ALOFT AND A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL PRODUCE OCCASIONAL SHOWERS...ALONG WITH A RUMBLE OF THUNDER
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. A SLOW CLEARING TREND WILL DEVELOP
BY LATE TODAY...WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURNING BY THE
WEEKEND. A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE THE NORTH
COUNTRY WITH MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS THRU MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT FRIDAY...FCST CHALLENGE THRU TODAY WL BE TIMING OF
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER...ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED TEMPS. WATER
VAPOR SHOWS POTENT 5H VORT ENTERING THE SLV ATTM...WITH PLENTY OF
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY ACRS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE SLV ATTM.
THIS SYSTEM...ALONG WITH GOOD 850 TO 500MB RH AND PWS VALUES
APPROACHING 1.0"...WHICH IS 200 TO 300% ABOVE NORMAL...WL PRODUCE
A BAND OF MODERATE TO LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL ACRS THE FA TODAY.
USING THE RUC13 AND NAM12 700 TO 500MB UVVS AND RH FIELDS...ALONG
WITH LATEST RADAR TRENDS...WOULD SUPPORT PRECIP BEING ACRS THE SLV
BTWN 06-09Z...DACKS FROM 09Z-12Z...CPV BTWN 12-15Z..AND INTO
EASTERN VT BY 18Z TODAY. GIVEN PLENTY OF LIGHTNING ACTIVITY
UPSTREAM AND SW VALUES BTWN -1 AND -2 TODAY...ALONG WITH SOME WEAK
ELEVATED CAPE VALUES WL CONT TO MENTION ISOLATED THUNDER CHCS THRU
21Z...BUT DECREASE CHCS FROM WEST TO EAST...AS INSTABILITY AXIS
SHIFTS EAST OF OUR CWA. GIVEN...STRONG SFC TO 800MB THETA E
CONVERGENCE AND AXIS OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WITH PWS NEAR
1.0"...WL MENTION POPS NEAR 100%...AS BAND OF MODERATE PRECIP
MOVES ACRS OUR CWA TODAY. AVERAGE QPF VALUES WL RANGE FROM 0.25 TO
0.75"...WITH SOME SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE STRONGER
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS...ESPECIALLY ACRS NNY. TEMPS TODAY WL BE
TRICKY...GIVEN CLOUDS/PRECIP...BUT SOME CLRING SHOULD DEVELOP ACRS
THE SLV/NORTHERN NY BY THIS AFTN. SOUNDINGS SHOW LIMITED MIXING
TODAY...BUT WITH SOME SUN THIS AFTN...FEEL SLV/CPV WL REACH THE
L50S...WITH MID 50S NEAR VSF...WHILE CENTRAL/EASTERN
VT...INCLUDING THE NEK STRUGGLE IN THE 40S. TONIGHT...1028MB HIGH
PRES BUILDS ACRS OUR CWA...WITH CLRING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
THESE CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH LEFTOVER BL MOISTURE FROM PREVIOUS
RAINFALL...WL RESULT IN AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING. NAM SOUNDINGS
SHOW PLENTY OF SFC TO 875MB...EVEN AT BTV...THEREFORE WL MENTION
SOME FOG IN FCST TONIGHT. LOWS WL RANGE FROM THE U20S SLK/MTNS/NEK
TO M/U30S WARMER/WIDER VALLEYS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT FRIDAY...
...RECORD BREAKING TEMPS ANTICIPATED ON SUNDAY AND INTO
NEXT WEEK...
THE RECORD IN BTV ON SUNDAY MARCH 18TH IS 62 SET BACK IN 1945...AND
OUR FCST TEMP AT BTV FOR SUNDAY IS 74F. MEANWHILE...THE RECORD HIGH
AT MPV IS ONLY 58 SET BACK IN 1966...AND WE ARE FORECASTING A HIGH
TEMP OF 72F ON SUNDAY MARCH 18TH. SEE CLIMO SECTION BELOW FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.
MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS ACRS OUR CWA...WHILE SFC HIGH PRES SHIFTS
INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND BY 12Z SUNDAY. THE COMBINATION OF 2 TO 3
STD ABOVE NORMAL HGHT FIELDS AND 925MB TO 850MB TEMPS WL PRODUCE
RECORD BREAKING TEMPS ACRS OUR FA ON SUNDAY. PROGGED 925MB TEMPS
BTWN 12C AND 14C...SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE U60S MTNS TO M70S WARMER
VALLEYS ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...925MB TEMPS ON SATURDAY RANGE BTWN 8C
NEK TO 12C SLV...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE M/U50S NEK/MTNS TO M/U60S
WARMER VALLEYS LOCATIONS. TEMPS WL BE COOLER...MAINLY 50S TO NEAR
60F...ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKE CHAMPLAIN SHORELINE...DUE TO WATER
TEMPS ONLY IN THE 30S. LARGE SUBSIDENCE AND ASSOCIATED DEEP DRY
LAYER WL PROVIDE FA WITH MAINLY CLR SKIES WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
ANTICIPATED. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED BOTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT THURSDAY...MAIN WX FEATURE FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD
WILL BE STRONG SFC RIDGE OFF THE EAST COAST. MDLS DO MEANDER THE
SYSTEM A BIT DURING THE EXTENDED BFR COLLAPSING SOME ON THURSDAY
AS BACKDOOR FRONT SINKS SOUTH. FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WK TROUGH SETS
UP ALONG THE WESTERN PORTION OF RIDGE. ENOUGH INSTABILITY DURING
THE DAY TO WARRANT MENTION OF -RW...BUT WILL HOLD OF MENTION OF
ANY THUNDER ATTM. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MDLS BUILD RIDGE FURTHER
NORTH INTO EASTERN CANADA...CRESTING OVER THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL
KEEP CWA PRECIP-FREE FOR THIS TWO-DAY STRETCH. FINALLY BY
THURSDAY...RIDGE BREAKS DOWN ALLOWING FOR FRONT...WHICH HAS
MEANDERED ALONG THE FRINGE OF NORTHERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE...TO
SINK TOWARDS US. MOVEMENT IS LIMITED DUE TO BLOCKING EFFECTS OF SFC
HIGH...BUT WILL BRING IN CHANCE FOR -RW WITH BEST CHANCES NEAR THE
CANADIAN BORDER. 925 TEMPS RANGING FROM +12C TO ALMOST +16C WILL
MEAN DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 70S THRU PERIOD. HAVE GONE ABOVE MDL
GUIDANCE BY A FEW DEGREES.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MOVE ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK THROUGH 02Z...ESPECIALLY
NEAR KMSS. OTHERWISE LOOK FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
TO BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA AFTER 06Z TONIGHT AND LAST
THROUGH ABOUT 18Z. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL LOWER INTO THE
MVFR CATEGORY AS A RESULT. SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF AFTER 18Z AND
VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE INTO THE VFR CATEGORY...BUT CEILINGS
WILL REMAIN IN THE MVFR CATEGORY. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL
GENERALLY BE UNDER 15 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AS A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION.
&&
.CLIMATE...
MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ANTICIPATED...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MANY
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE BROKEN FROM SUNDAY MARCH 18TH THRU
WEDS MARCH 21ST. BELOW IS A LIST OF RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR SUNDAY
MARCH 18TH THRU WEDS MARCH 21ST.
BTV:
MARCH 18TH: 62 (1945)
MARCH 19TH: 60 (1894)
MARCH 20TH: 70 (1903)
MARCH 21ST: 68 (1946)
MPV:
MARCH 18TH: 58 (1966)
MARCH 19TH: 57 (1968
MARCH 20TH: 62 (1976)
MARCH 21ST: 54 (2003)
1V4:
MARCH 18TH: 66 (1927)
MARCH 19TH: 71 (1903)
MARCH 20TH: 75 (1903)
MARCH 21ST: 71 (1903)
MSS:
MARCH 18TH: 66 (1966)
MARCH 19TH: 60 (1986)
MARCH 20TH: 66 (1976)
MARCH 21ST: 62 (1976)
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...EVENSON/JN
CLIMATE...TABER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
153 AM EDT FRI MAR 16 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ENDING THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH
SUNSHINE RETURNING AND TEMPERATURES REMAINING WARM IN THE 60S. THERE
WILL BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND CONTINUED WARM FOR SAINT PATRICKS
DAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
THROUGH 930 PM...THERE ARE SEVERAL AREAS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE REGION...BUT THEY HAVE YET TO REACH WESTERN
NEW YORK. THIS WILL CHANGE AS AN AXIS OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY
DROPS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 600 AM. THE
AREA OF MOST INTEREST IS CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO.
EXPECT THIS AREA TO SLIDE EASTWARD THROUGH THIS EVENING...LIKELY
EXPANDING TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF LAKE
ONTARIO. AFTER THIS...THE LINE SHOULD LIKELY SLIDE
SOUTHWARD...CROSSING WESTERN NEW YORK DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. FEEL THE HRRR DOES HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS...AS ITS
FORECAST IS IN LINE WITH THE GFS FORECAST MOVEMENT OF THIS
AXIS...WHICH HAS THUS FAR WORKED QUITE WELL. MOST OTHER MODELS
APPEAR QUITE FAR OFF...AND HAVE LARGELY BEEN DISCARDED.
THE MAIN IMPACT OF THIS WILL LIKELY BE SOME HEAVY RAIN IN A FEW
LOCATIONS. DESPITE THE TIMING...EXPECT THE ELEVATED CONVECTION TO
MAINTAIN...WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS A POSSIBILITY EVEN DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE WEAK FLOW AND SLOW MOVEMENT OF THIS
MAY RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...WITH GREATER THAN AN INCH OF
RAIN POSSIBLE IN SPOTS. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WITH THIS
REMAINS MINIMAL...AS THE CONVECTION BECOMES ELEVATED AND LESS
CELLULAR. WIND THREAT IS VIRTUALLY NIL...WITH ONLY A MARGINAL
POSSIBILITY FOR HAIL IF CELLS EXCEED EXPECTATIONS.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP VERY LITTLE ONCE HIGH CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS MOVE IN. AFTER THE RAIN...EXPECT THERE WILL BE PATCHY
FOG...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LAKE...AS DEW POINTS INCREASE TO WELL
ABOVE THE LAKE TEMPERATURE.
CONVECTION WILL BE MOVING EASTWARD DURING EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND
SHOULD CLEAR THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MIDDAY THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON. WILL SEE A CLEARING TREND DURING THE
AFTERNOON...BUT MAY BE TOO LATE FOR TEMPS TO CLIMB MUCH MORE THAN
THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S...50S TO LOWER 60S EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO...STILL MUCH ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVERAGE HIGH TEMPS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
BY FRIDAY EVENING A LOW AMPLITUDE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. ANY RAIN SHOULD BE OVER BY EARLY EVENING
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE LOWER LAKES REGION. ON SATURDAY
THIS HIGH WILL BUILD INTO NEW ENGLAND...WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
BOOSTING 925MB TEMPS TO +16C BY THE END OF THE DAY. THIS SHOULD
SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AWAY
FROM THE LAKESHORES. THE SYNOPTIC SCALE FLOW SHOULD STILL BE WEAK
ENOUGH TO ALLOW LOCAL LAKE BREEZES TO FORM DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH
THE PEAK OF DIFFERENTIAL HEATING. ONSHORE BREEZES WILL KEEP AREAS
WITHIN A FEW MILES OF THE LAKES COOLER.
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT A VERY WEAK CONVECTIVELY AUGMENTED SHORTWAVE
WILL TRAVERSE THE TOP OF THE BUILDING RIDGE AND SLOWLY CROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER LAKES REGION. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A
PLUME OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY AWAY
FROM THE LAKE SHADOWS. WITH THIS IN MIND HAVE CONTINUED WITH CHANCE
POPS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GIVEN THE RELATIVELY WEAK
FLOW...ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
THIS SHOULD SLOWLY DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...AND ALSO AS THE WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES OVERWHELMED
BY BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND DISSIPATES.
ANY CONVECTION SHOULD BE LATE ENOUGH IN THE DAY AND SCATTERED ENOUGH
IN NATURE TO ALLOW TEMPS TO SOAR ONCE AGAIN WITH MID 70S ACROSS
LOWER ELEVATIONS AND EVEN CLOSE TO 80 ACROSS THE WARMEST SPOTS OF
THE GENESEE VALLEY. ONCE AGAIN THERE SHOULD BE LOCAL LAKE BREEZES
DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH ONSHORE FLOW KEEPING THE LAKESHORES
COOLER.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE BIG STORY IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE THE ONGOING INCREDIBLE WARMTH
WHICH SHOWS NO SIGNS OF ABATING MOST OF NEXT WEEK. THE LONGWAVE
PATTERN WILL STAGNATE ACROSS NORTH AMERICA WITH A VERY DEEP AND SLOW
MOVING TROUGH IN THE WEST...AND A MASSIVE EASTERN RIDGE WHICH WILL
EVOLVE INTO AN OMEGA BLOCK OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER LAKES BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. 850MB TEMPS WILL RUN IN THE +10C TO +12C RANGE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON MOST DAYS...THIS WILL
TRANSLATE INTO HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH THE WARMER SPOTS
OF THE GENESEE VALLEY LIKELY MAKING A RUN AT 80 ON AT LEAST A FEW
DAYS. EXPECT SYNOPTIC FLOW TO BE WEAK ENOUGH ON MOST DAYS TO ALLOW
LOCAL LAKE BREEZES TO FORM...KEEPING THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORES COOLER.
AS FAR AS PRECIP CHANCES GO...FOLLOWING THE WEAK WAVE ON SUNDAY THE
CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD DIRECTLY OVERHEAD
AGAIN...WHICH SHOULD PRODUCE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF
NEXT WEEK. WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND MODEST
INSTABILITY IN PLACE...THERE IS ALWAYS A SMALL CHANCE OF ISOLATED
DIURNAL CONVECTION BENEATH THE RIDGE AXIS...BUT VERY WARM MID LEVEL
TEMPS AND NO SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL KEEP THIS VERY LIMITED. WITH THIS
IN MIND...HAVE JUST CONTINUED THE DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE INCREDIBLE WARMTH WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF NEXT
WEEK. LONG TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN EVENTUAL BREAKDOWN OF THE
PATTERN BY THE WEEKEND OF MARCH 24TH...EITHER AS THE WESTERN TROUGH
MOVES EAST...OR AS THE RIDGE BUCKLES AND ALLOWS A NORTHERN STREAM
BACKDOOR FRONT INTO NEW ENGLAND.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT 06Z MAINLY VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...AND ALSO
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER TO START THIS TAF CYCLE. WE WILL FOCUS
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TAFS FOR THE KART AND KJHW TERMINALS AND REMOVE
THE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND GENESEE VALLEY WHERE
SHOWERS ARE MORE LIKELY...THOUGH LEAVE A CB FOR ANY STRAY THUNDER
ACTIVITY.
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL END ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION BETWEEN 09Z AND
15Z THIS MORNING THOUGH CIGS AND VSBYS MAY FALL TO IFR WITH
DEWPOINTS REMAINING QUITE HIGH ACROSS THE REGION.
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE CROSSES THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH DRIER
AIR AND CIGS SCATTERING TO VFR THROUGH THE LATER MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HOURS. EXPECT A RETURN TO VFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS
AND REMAINING VFR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS. EXCEPTION
WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER WHERE PATCHY FOG MAY FORM BUT FOR
NOW WILL MAINTAIN THE VFR VSBYS.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...VFR.
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH CHANCE -TSRA.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
QUIET CONDITIONS ON THE LAKES SHOULD CONTINUE WITH THE COLD LAKE
WATERS STABILIZING WINDS AND WAVES. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
ARE NOT EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MIGHT BE
DURING ANY THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LAKES TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...
DURING WHICH WINDS AND WAVES MAY PRODUCE HAZARDOUS BOATING
CONDITIONS.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/WCH
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...APFFEL/WCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
150 AM EDT FRI MAR 16 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
ACCOMPANIED BY SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LINGER ON FRIDAY WITH CONTINUED
UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER... THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE REGION THIS WEEKEND BRINGING DRY WEATHER. UNSEASONABLY WARM
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
930 PM UPDATE...
SURROUNDING RADARS SHOWING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ACTIVITY THIS
EVENING. RUC CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME MODEST MID LEVEL INSTABILITY
OVERNIGHT. WITH UL WAVE PROGGED TO TRACK ACROSS FA, WE WILL KEEP
ISO/CHC THUNDER IN THE FORECAST LATE.
OVERALL WE DECREASED POPS, ESPECIALLY PRIOR TO 6Z. SHOWERS SHOULD
INCREASE TOWARD MORNING.
4 PM UPDATE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG
AND JUST ON THE COLD SIDE OF A BOUNDARY SEPARATING 30S DEW POINTS
OVER EASTERN NY AND NEW ENGLAND FROM 50S DEW POINTS ACROSS WESTERN
NY SOUTHWEST TO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE MAIN CONCENTRATION OF SHOWERS
HAS BEEN OVER ONEIDA COUNTY WHERE STRONGER STORMS HAVE BEEN
ASSOCIATED WITH SOME SMALL HAIL. SPC MESO- ANALYSIS INIDICATES
THAT SFC-BASED CAPE VALUES GREATER THAN 500 J/KG ARE STILL WELL TO
THE WEST OF OUR AREA... HOWEVER SOME MID- LEVEL INSTABILITY EXISTS
ACROSS OUR AREA WITH MID-LVL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7 DEGREES C / KM
PER BUFIT SOUNDINGS. WITH LITTLE LARGE-SCALE FORCING ABOVE THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY EXPECT THAT THESE SHOWERS WILL MOSTLY DISIPATE BY
AROUND SUNSET.
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS
FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT. LOW-LEVEL STABLE LAYER WILL LIKELY
BE IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT BUT MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE MODERATELY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH NEAR
ZERO SHOWALTER INDICIES INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ELEVATED
THUNDER WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE BEST FORCING LATER TONIGHT OR
FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WAVE PASSING ACROSS THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ELEVATED THUNDER. THE WAVE
WILL PASS EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH GRADUAL DRYING.
MODELS SOUNDINGS SHOW AN INCREASE IN INSTABILITY FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WITH NAM FORECAST SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES INCREASING TO OVER
1000 J/KG. GFS FORECASTS MUCH LESS INSTABILITY WITH AFTERNOON
CAPES GENEARALLY BELOW 500 J/KG. BASED ON THIS THINK THAT THERE STILL
COULD STILL BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON DESPITE THE UPPER FORCING MOVING AWAY. ENOUGH
DRY AIR SHOULD MOVE IN TO COMPLETELY SHUT DOWN PRECIPITATION
CHANCES BY FRIDAY EVENING.
VERY QUIET... EXTREMELY WARM WEATHER RETURNS AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A DRY DAY ON
SATURDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN
ON SUNDAY MAINLY ACROSS THE WEST AS MOISTURE RETURN BEGINS AROUND
THE WEST SIDE OF THE SURFACE HIGH. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL
RETURN TO THE 70S IN MOST OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LONG RANGE CONTS TO ADVERTISE A HUGE UPR RDG AND TEMPS WELL ABV
NRML...TO NEAR OR ABV RECORD LVLS. OPERATIONAL GFS AND EURO DO
START THE PD WITH A WV ROTATING THRU THE RDG WHICH WILL BRING THE
CHANCE OF SHWRS AND TRWS ON MON. BHD THE WV...RDG POPS BACK INTO
SHAPE WITH H5 HGTS RCHG ABV 580 BY THE END OPF THE PD. WITH THE
RISING HGTS COMES DRYING AND THERE SEEMS TO BE LOW CHANCE OF PCPN
THRU THE END OF THE PD. MOS GUID BNOT DOING WELL WITH THE
UNSEASONABLE WARMTH AND ARE CLOSE TO 10F TOO LOW BY THE END OF THE
PD. IN GNRL...HPC GUID SEEMED RSNBL THRU THE PD...HWVR TEMPS COULD
END UP BEING EVEN WRMR THAN THE FCST DEPENDING ON THE AMT OF SUN.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAK SFC LOW MOVING ACROSS NEARBY SOUTHERN CANADA WILL PUSH A
WARM FRONT THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY A SFC
TROF AROUND MIDDAY. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS
THE KRME/KSYR TERMINALS AND LESS TO THE SOUTH. MVFR SHOWERS ARE
LIKELY EARLY THIS MORNING PRIMARILY BETWEEN 09Z-14Z. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING BUT NOT
INCLUDED IN TAF DUE TO LIMITED COVERAGE. AFTER THE CONVECTION
PASSES BY MID MORNING MVFR/LOW MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED. SOME MODELS
SUGGEST IFR CIGS BUT NOT FOLLOWED DUE TO NO UPSTREAM HISTORY. ONCE
TROF PASSES 18Z-21Z, CIGS WILL BECOME VFR THEN SCATTER OUT THIS EVENING.
E/SE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING BECOMING S/SW BY MID MORNING AROUND
8-10 KNOTS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST AT 5-10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.
.OUTLOOK...
SAT TO SUN...VFR.
MON TO TUE...GNRL VFR. CHC MVFR SHOWERS MON NGT INTO TUE MRNG.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...DJP/MSE
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...RRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1202 AM CDT FRI MAR 16 2012
.AVIATION...
LITTLE CHANGE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS MODERATE SLY LOW LEVEL
WINDS CONTINUE TO BRING GULF MOISTURE INTO S TX. MVFR CIGS WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND FALL TO IFR BETWEEN 08Z AND 10Z. CIGS
WILL AGAIN LIFT TO VFR BY AROUND 18Z ON FRIDAY. ISOLATED THUNDER
SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF KDRT AND DISSIPATE BY 08Z SO HAVE NOT
INCLUDED IN FORECAST. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
I-35 TERMINALS AFTER 08Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH 18Z. S-SELY WINDS
OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND 10 TO 15 KNOTS ON FRIDAY WITH GUST
TO 20 KNOTS FROM 19Z-23Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1158 PM CDT THU MAR 15 2012/
AVIATION...
LITTLE CHANGE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS MODERATE SLY LOW LEVEL
WINDS CONTINUE TO BRING GULF MOISTURE INTO S TX. MVFR CIGS WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP. KDRT WILL SEE MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING AROUND
10Z. CIGS WILL AGAIN LIFT TO VFR BY AROUND 18Z ON FRIDAY. ISOLATED
THUNDER SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF KDRT AND DISSIPATE BY 08Z SO HAVE
NOT INCLUDED IN FORECAST. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE I-35 TERMINALS AFTER 08Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH 18Z. S-SELY
WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND 10 TO 15 KNOTS ON FRIDAY WITH
GUST TO 20 KNOTS FROM 19Z-23Z.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1118 PM CDT THU MAR 15 2012/
UPDATE...
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OVER BREWSTER COUNTY WILL MOVE THROUGH
SOUTHERN TERRELL COUNTY AND LIKELY WEAKEN INTO A SHOWER AS IT GETS
INTO WESTERN VAL VERDE COUNTY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE LATE NIGHT
ACTIVITY DID WARRANT FURTHER INSPECTION AS THE SATELLITE WV LOOP
SHOWED A DECENT SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO SRN NM AND FAR W TX. MID
LEVEL WIND FORECASTS FROM THE RUC MATCHES UP WELL WITH A SHORTWAVE
SEEN ON HI-RES MODELS THAT DEPICT THE SHORTWAVE AFFECTING CENTRAL
TX AND SHOWING AN INCREASING QPF TO SUGGEST STREAMER SHOWERS
MAINLY IN THE MORNING HOURS. UPDATED FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS THROUGH 17Z. THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 631 PM CDT THU MAR 15 2012/
AVIATION...
LITTLE CHANGE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS MODERATE SLY LOW LEVEL
WINDS CONTINUE TO BRING GULF MOISTURE INTO S TX. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH 04Z-06Z WHEN MVFR CIGS WILL
REDEVELOP AND LOWER TO IFR BY 12Z WITH PATCHY LIGHT DRIZZLE AND
FOG BETWEEN 10Z-15Z LOWERING VSBYS TO 4-6 MILES. KDRT WILL SEE
MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING AROUND 12Z. CIGS WILL AGAIN LIFT TO VFR BY
AROUND 18Z ON FRIDAY. S-SELY WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND
10 TO 15 KNOTS ON FRIDAY WITH GUST TO 20 KNOTS FROM 19Z-23Z.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 533 PM CDT THU MAR 15 2012/
UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE ISSUED TO CLEAN UP QPF NUMBERS FOR SUNDAY INTO
TUESDAY. SOME COSMETIC CHANGES ALSO MADE TO POPS...SKY...AND FIRST
PERIOD TEMPS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 247 PM CDT THU MAR 15 2012/
DISCUSSION...
SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL GULF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY BELOW A SOUTHWESTERLY SUBSIDENT JET. SOME MORNING DRIZZLE
MAY AGAIN DEVELOP ALONG ESCARPMENT COUNTIES LATE NIGHT TO LATE
MORNING. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. HIGHS FRIDAY FROM THE
MID 70S HILLS TO THE UPPER 70S AND 80S ADJACENT AREAS. DISTURBANCES
TRACKING NORTHWEST OF THE REGION TOMORROW EVENING MAY PRODUCE
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MAY CLIP OUR EXTREME NORTHWEST TO EXTREME
NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY LOCATIONS. INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW RESULTING
IN BETTER UPSLOPING MOISTURE MAY FORCE CONVECTION OFF BURROS INTO
WESTERN CWA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. FURTHER DISTURBANCES PUSHING
ACROSS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WILL PRODUCE
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS HEIGHTS ALOFT
CONTINUE TO LOWER AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING STORM SYSTEM TO OUR WEST.
BY MONDAY NIGHT...EARLY TUESDAY...THE BROAD UPPER LOW`S FORWARD
SIDE WILL BEGIN IMPACTING THE REGION AS A PACIFIC FRONT PUSHES INTO
WESTERN PORTIONS. GOOD JET ACTIVITY ALONG AND AHEAD THE FRONT COMBINED
WITH PW`S SOME 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS HIGHER THAN WHAT IS NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR WILL RESULT IN EFFICIENT RAIN RATES WHICH MAY
LEAD TO SOME LOCALIZED FLOOD PROBLEMS FROM THE EASTERN HILL COUNTRY
EASTWARD OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. ONE TO TWO
INCH RAINS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AFOREMENTIONED TIME RANGE (OVERNIGHT
MONDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY) ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
DECREASING CLOUDINESS FROM THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS
DRY NORTH WINDS UNDERCUT THE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS...
CHANCES OF RAIN DECREASE EASTERN HALF. COOLER TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S HILLS TO THE LOW AND MID 50S SOUTH
AND EAST. AS THE UPPER LOW PIVOTS NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN U.S.
PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...DRIER WESTERLIES ALOFT WILL
END RAIN CHANCES WITH COOL READINGS AT NIGHT AND MILD DAYTIME
HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND NEXT THURSDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 67 81 68 82 69 / 10 10 10 20 30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 66 81 66 82 68 / 10 10 10 20 30
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 65 80 65 81 67 / 10 10 10 20 30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 65 79 65 80 67 / 10 10 10 30 40
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 65 83 65 84 66 / - 20 20 20 40
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 66 78 67 79 67 / 10 10 10 20 30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 65 81 64 82 66 / 10 10 20 30 40
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 66 80 66 81 68 / 10 10 10 20 30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 66 79 68 80 69 / 10 10 10 20 30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 67 79 67 81 69 / 10 10 10 20 40
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 67 79 67 81 68 / 10 10 10 20 40
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...18
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1158 PM CDT THU MAR 15 2012
.AVIATION...
LITTLE CHANGE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS MODERATE SLY LOW LEVEL
WINDS CONTINUE TO BRING GULF MOISTURE INTO S TX. MVFR CIGS WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP. KDRT WILL SEE MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING AROUND
10Z. CIGS WILL AGAIN LIFT TO VFR BY AROUND 18Z ON FRIDAY. ISOLATED
THUNDER SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF KDRT AND DISSIPATE BY 08Z SO HAVE
NOT INCLUDED IN FORECAST. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE I-35 TERMINALS AFTER 08Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH 18Z. S-SELY
WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND 10 TO 15 KNOTS ON FRIDAY WITH
GUST TO 20 KNOTS FROM 19Z-23Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1118 PM CDT THU MAR 15 2012/
UPDATE...
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OVER BREWSTER COUNTY WILL MOVE THROUGH
SOUTHERN TERRELL COUNTY AND LIKELY WEAKEN INTO A SHOWER AS IT GETS
INTO WESTERN VAL VERDE COUNTY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE LATE NIGHT
ACTIVITY DID WARRANT FURTHER INSPECTION AS THE SATELLITE WV LOOP
SHOWED A DECENT SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO SRN NM AND FAR W TX. MID
LEVEL WIND FORECASTS FROM THE RUC MATCHES UP WELL WITH A SHORTWAVE
SEEN ON HI-RES MODELS THAT DEPICT THE SHORTWAVE AFFECTING CENTRAL
TX AND SHOWING AN INCREASING QPF TO SUGGEST STREAMER SHOWERS
MAINLY IN THE MORNING HOURS. UPDATED FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS THROUGH 17Z. THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 631 PM CDT THU MAR 15 2012/
AVIATION...
LITTLE CHANGE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS MODERATE SLY LOW LEVEL
WINDS CONTINUE TO BRING GULF MOISTURE INTO S TX. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH 04Z-06Z WHEN MVFR CIGS WILL
REDEVELOP AND LOWER TO IFR BY 12Z WITH PATCHY LIGHT DRIZZLE AND
FOG BETWEEN 10Z-15Z LOWERING VSBYS TO 4-6 MILES. KDRT WILL SEE
MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING AROUND 12Z. CIGS WILL AGAIN LIFT TO VFR BY
AROUND 18Z ON FRIDAY. S-SELY WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND
10 TO 15 KNOTS ON FRIDAY WITH GUST TO 20 KNOTS FROM 19Z-23Z.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 533 PM CDT THU MAR 15 2012/
UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE ISSUED TO CLEAN UP QPF NUMBERS FOR SUNDAY INTO
TUESDAY. SOME COSMETIC CHANGES ALSO MADE TO POPS...SKY...AND FIRST
PERIOD TEMPS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 247 PM CDT THU MAR 15 2012/
DISCUSSION...
SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL GULF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY BELOW A SOUTHWESTERLY SUBSIDENT JET. SOME MORNING DRIZZLE
MAY AGAIN DEVELOP ALONG ESCARPMENT COUNTIES LATE NIGHT TO LATE
MORNING. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. HIGHS FRIDAY FROM THE
MID 70S HILLS TO THE UPPER 70S AND 80S ADJACENT AREAS. DISTURBANCES
TRACKING NORTHWEST OF THE REGION TOMORROW EVENING MAY PRODUCE
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MAY CLIP OUR EXTREME NORTHWEST TO EXTREME
NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY LOCATIONS. INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW RESULTING
IN BETTER UPSLOPING MOISTURE MAY FORCE CONVECTION OFF BURROS INTO
WESTERN CWA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. FURTHER DISTURBANCES PUSHING
ACROSS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WILL PRODUCE
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS HEIGHTS ALOFT
CONTINUE TO LOWER AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING STORM SYSTEM TO OUR WEST.
BY MONDAY NIGHT...EARLY TUESDAY...THE BROAD UPPER LOW`S FORWARD
SIDE WILL BEGIN IMPACTING THE REGION AS A PACIFIC FRONT PUSHES INTO
WESTERN PORTIONS. GOOD JET ACTIVITY ALONG AND AHEAD THE FRONT COMBINED
WITH PW`S SOME 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS HIGHER THAN WHAT IS NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR WILL RESULT IN EFFICIENT RAIN RATES WHICH MAY
LEAD TO SOME LOCALIZED FLOOD PROBLEMS FROM THE EASTERN HILL COUNTRY
EASTWARD OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. ONE TO TWO
INCH RAINS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AFOREMENTIONED TIME RANGE (OVERNIGHT
MONDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY) ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
DECREASING CLOUDINESS FROM THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS
DRY NORTH WINDS UNDERCUT THE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS...
CHANCES OF RAIN DECREASE EASTERN HALF. COOLER TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S HILLS TO THE LOW AND MID 50S SOUTH
AND EAST. AS THE UPPER LOW PIVOTS NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN U.S.
PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...DRIER WESTERLIES ALOFT WILL
END RAIN CHANCES WITH COOL READINGS AT NIGHT AND MILD DAYTIME
HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND NEXT THURSDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 66 80 67 81 68 / 20 20 10 10 10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 65 80 66 81 66 / 20 20 10 10 10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 66 78 65 80 65 / 20 20 10 10 10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 65 78 65 79 65 / 20 20 10 10 10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 65 81 65 83 65 / 10 10 - 20 20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 66 77 66 78 67 / 20 20 10 10 10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 66 80 65 81 64 / 20 20 10 10 20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 66 79 66 80 66 / 20 20 10 10 10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 68 79 66 79 68 / 20 20 10 10 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 66 78 67 79 67 / 20 20 10 10 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 67 79 67 79 67 / 20 20 10 10 10
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...18
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1118 PM CDT THU MAR 15 2012
.UPDATE...
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OVER BREWSTER COUNTY WILL MOVE THROUGH
SOUTHERN TERRELL COUNTY AND LIKELY WEAKEN INTO A SHOWER AS IT GETS
INTO WESTERN VAL VERDE COUNTY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE LATE NIGHT
ACTIVITY DID WARRANT FURTHER INSPECTION AS THE SATELLITE WV LOOP
SHOWED A DECENT SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO SRN NM AND FAR W TX. MID
LEVEL WIND FORECASTS FROM THE RUC MATCHES UP WELL WITH A SHORTWAVE
SEEN ON HI-RES MODELS THAT DEPICT THE SHORTWAVE AFFECTING CENTRAL
TX AND SHOWING AN INCREASING QPF TO SUGGEST STREAMER SHOWERS
MAINLY IN THE MORNING HOURS. UPDATED FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS THROUGH 17Z. THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 631 PM CDT THU MAR 15 2012/
AVIATION...
LITTLE CHANGE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS MODERATE SLY LOW LEVEL
WINDS CONTINUE TO BRING GULF MOISTURE INTO S TX. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH 04Z-06Z WHEN MVFR CIGS WILL
REDEVELOP AND LOWER TO IFR BY 12Z WITH PATCHY LIGHT DRIZZLE AND
FOG BETWEEN 10Z-15Z LOWERING VSBYS TO 4-6 MILES. KDRT WILL SEE
MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING AROUND 12Z. CIGS WILL AGAIN LIFT TO VFR BY
AROUND 18Z ON FRIDAY. S-SELY WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND
10 TO 15 KNOTS ON FRIDAY WITH GUST TO 20 KNOTS FROM 19Z-23Z.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 533 PM CDT THU MAR 15 2012/
UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE ISSUED TO CLEAN UP QPF NUMBERS FOR SUNDAY INTO
TUESDAY. SOME COSMETIC CHANGES ALSO MADE TO POPS...SKY...AND FIRST
PERIOD TEMPS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 247 PM CDT THU MAR 15 2012/
DISCUSSION...
SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL GULF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY BELOW A SOUTHWESTERLY SUBSIDENT JET. SOME MORNING DRIZZLE
MAY AGAIN DEVELOP ALONG ESCARPMENT COUNTIES LATE NIGHT TO LATE
MORNING. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. HIGHS FRIDAY FROM THE
MID 70S HILLS TO THE UPPER 70S AND 80S ADJACENT AREAS. DISTURBANCES
TRACKING NORTHWEST OF THE REGION TOMORROW EVENING MAY PRODUCE
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MAY CLIP OUR EXTREME NORTHWEST TO EXTREME
NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY LOCATIONS. INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW RESULTING
IN BETTER UPSLOPING MOISTURE MAY FORCE CONVECTION OFF BURROS INTO
WESTERN CWA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. FURTHER DISTURBANCES PUSHING
ACROSS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WILL PRODUCE
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS HEIGHTS ALOFT
CONTINUE TO LOWER AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING STORM SYSTEM TO OUR WEST.
BY MONDAY NIGHT...EARLY TUESDAY...THE BROAD UPPER LOW`S FORWARD
SIDE WILL BEGIN IMPACTING THE REGION AS A PACIFIC FRONT PUSHES INTO
WESTERN PORTIONS. GOOD JET ACTIVITY ALONG AND AHEAD THE FRONT COMBINED
WITH PW`S SOME 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS HIGHER THAN WHAT IS NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR WILL RESULT IN EFFICIENT RAIN RATES WHICH MAY
LEAD TO SOME LOCALIZED FLOOD PROBLEMS FROM THE EASTERN HILL COUNTRY
EASTWARD OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. ONE TO TWO
INCH RAINS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AFOREMENTIONED TIME RANGE (OVERNIGHT
MONDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY) ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
DECREASING CLOUDINESS FROM THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS
DRY NORTH WINDS UNDERCUT THE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS...
CHANCES OF RAIN DECREASE EASTERN HALF. COOLER TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S HILLS TO THE LOW AND MID 50S SOUTH
AND EAST. AS THE UPPER LOW PIVOTS NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN U.S.
PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...DRIER WESTERLIES ALOFT WILL
END RAIN CHANCES WITH COOL READINGS AT NIGHT AND MILD DAYTIME
HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND NEXT THURSDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 66 80 67 81 68 / 20 20 10 10 10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 65 80 66 81 66 / 20 20 10 10 10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 66 78 65 80 65 / 20 20 10 10 10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 65 78 65 79 65 / 20 20 10 10 10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 65 81 65 83 65 / 10 10 - 20 20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 66 77 66 78 67 / 20 20 10 10 10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 66 80 65 81 64 / 20 20 10 10 20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 66 79 66 80 66 / 20 20 10 10 10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 68 79 66 79 68 / 20 20 10 10 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 66 78 67 79 67 / 20 20 10 10 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 67 79 67 79 67 / 20 20 10 10 10
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...18
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...32
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
338 AM CDT FRI MAR 16 2012
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
303 AM CDT FRI MAR 16 2012
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...AS WELL AS THE LONG PERIOD OF WARMTH SEEN.
CURRENTLY AS OF 07Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED TROUGHING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND RIDGING BUILDING
OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO MANITOBA. TWO OTHER FEATURES OF NOTE
IN WATER VAPOR ARE SHORTWAVES OVER NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND NEAR
TUSCON ARIZONA. UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR REMAINS UNDER THE BUILDING
RIDGING AND PRETTY MUCH THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE U.S.. 850MB
TEMPS AT 00Z RANGED FROM 10-12C AT BIS...ABR...MPX AND GRB...WHILE
OAX AND DVN WERE WARMER AT 14C. AT THE SURFACE...LEE TROUGHING WAS
PRESENT FROM THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS DOWN INTO NEW MEXICO...WHILE A
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING OFF THE LEE TROUGHING EAST ALONG US-20 IN
IOWA. THIS STATIONARY FRONT NOT ONLY SEPARATES SOME OF THE WARMER
850MB AIR SEEN ON 00Z RAOBS...BUT MOISTURE AS WELL. THE 850MB
DEWPOINT AT MPX WAS -10C...COMPARED TO 6C AT DVN. ON A SIDE NOTE...
THE 12Z NAM/GFS WERE 3-5C TOO HIGH WITH THE DEWPOINT AT 850MB FOR A
12 HOUR FORECAST AT DVN...BUT NEARLY SPOT ON AT MPX. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS JUMP NEARLY 20F BETWEEN MSP AND DSM WITH WIDESPREAD MID
50S TO LOW 60S READINGS SOUTH OF THE FRONT. 925MB PROFILER AND RADAR
VWP DATA SHOWED AN INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND FROM OKLAHOMA
INTO IOWA AND THE DAKOTAS...INDICATIVE OF THE BUILDING UPPER
RIDGING. SO FAR ANY FOG THAT HAS FORMED HAS BEEN PATCHY AND
RESTRICTED TO RIVER VALLEYS.
UPPER AND SURFACE PATTERN...OVERALL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
HERE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. TROUGHING CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST IS GOING TO BECOME A FULL LONGWAVE TROUGH DOWN THE WEST
COAST OF THE U.S. BY 18Z SATURDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...THE UPPER FLOW
OVER THE FORECAST AREA BRIEFLY TURNS SOUTHWEST FOR TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY...THEN HEIGHTS/RIDGING BUILDS OVERHEAD. FOR SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGHING SHIFTS EAST INTO THE
ROCKIES...RESULTING IN A SLIGHT SHIFT EASTWARD OF THE RIDGING OVER
THE FORECAST AREA. IN ADDITION...A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ENDS UP
FORMING OVER EASTERN MONTANA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. NOW REGARDING
SOME OF THE INDIVIDUAL PERIOD DETAILS:
TODAY AND TONIGHT...AS THE UPPER RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS
PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...THE STATIONARY FRONT COMES
NORTH...CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 18Z AND 06Z. GIVEN ALL
THE UNSEASONABLE WARMTH AND HUMIDITY ALONG/SOUTH OF THE FRONT...
CONCERN IS IF ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD FORM ON THIS
FRONT. IN FACT...16.00Z GFS SHOWS ONLY 25-50 J/KG OF MLCIN
ALONG/SOUTH OF THE FRONT. ONLY REAL SHORTWAVE OF NOTE IS THE ONE
OVER NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...ALBEIT IT IS VERY WEAK...WHICH IS PROGGED
TO MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HARD TO SAY IF THIS
INITIATES CONVECTION OR NOT. THE 16.00Z GFS SAYS IT DOES OVER FAR
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN...WHILE THE 16.00Z NAM/SPC WRF SAYS NOT AT ALL.
REGARDING THE FRONT ITSELF...0-2 KM CONVERGENCE PLOTS FROM BOTH THE
GFS AND NAM SHOW NO CONVERGENCE OCCURRING. FEELING IS THAT GIVEN THE
FRONT HAS NO CONVERGENCE...WE WILL END UP DRY...BUT THE WEAK
SHORTWAVE IS A WORRY. WHATEVER DOES FORM THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD
DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. THE OVERNIGHT THEN LOOKS
DRY WITH THE AREA UNDERNEATH A BROAD STREAM OF 925-850MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WITH NO FOCUSING MECHANISM. REGARDING TEMPERATURES...850MB
READINGS HOLD STEADY TODAY BETWEEN 10-12C...THOUGH 925MB READINGS
ARE PROGGED 2-4C HIGHER NORTH OF I-90 COMPARED TO 00Z FRIDAY.
THEREFORE...ANTICIPATING HIGHS TO BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY SOUTH OF
I-90 AND 4-6F WARMER NORTH OF I-90. CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION ON A
SOUTHERLY BREEZE TONIGHT...PLUS HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL ALL LEAD TO
LOWS STAYING UP IN THE 50S. A FEW SPOTS MAY NOT DROP BELOW 60.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THINGS GET EVEN MORE MURKY TO FIND
TRIGGERS FOR CONVECTION. WITH THE MAIN FRONT...NOW A WARM FRONT...
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...AM CONCERNED THIS ENTIRE TIME PERIOD WE
WILL END UP CAPPED. THE 16.00Z NAM DOES DEVELOP CONVECTION NORTH OF
I-90 SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT THIS LOOKS SUSPICIOUS. THE
SHORTWAVE CAUSING THE NAM TO DEVELOP THE CONVECTION ORIGINATES FROM
UTAH RIGHT NOW...WHICH IS TOUGH TO FIND ON WATER VAPOR...THEN
SUDDENLY STRENGTHENS OVER EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA LATE SATURDAY.
OUTSIDE OF THE NAM...THE CANADIAN/GFS/ECMWF ALL BASICALLY DEPICT A
DRY SCENARIO...WITH A LITTLE SMATTERING OF QPF ON SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. HAVE DECIDED SINCE THE SMATTERING OF QPF STILL
EXISTS TO MAINTAIN THE PREVIOUS 20 PERCENT CHANCES FOR SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT...PER ALSO COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.
UNLESS A MORE DEFINED SIGNAL FOR PRECIPITATION BECOMES APPARENT...
ENVISION THESE 20 PERCENT CHANCES CAN BE DROPPED. THIS LEAVES
TEMPERATURES THE MAIN CONCERN. 925MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED BETWEEN
16-18C BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THESE READINGS PRODUCED HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S OVER NORTHEAST IOWA YESTERDAY...SO THESE SHOULD BE
SEEN IN MOST AREAS OVER THE WEEKEND. LOWS ALSO EXPECTED TO STAY VERY
WARM WITH ABNORMALLY HIGH DEWPOINTS AND A SUSTAINED SOUTH BREEZE.
NOTE...SHOULD ANY STORMS FORM DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...0-6KM
SHEAR IS LESS THAN 20 KT. PLUS...ALL CAPE PROFILES SUGGEST A NARROW
RIBBON. THEREFORE...NO SEVERE STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH LIGHTNING
AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN THE MAIN CONCERNS.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
303 AM CDT FRI MAR 16 2012
ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD FOCUS IS ON THE SPEED AND EVOLUTION OF THE
LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE ROCKIES SUNDAY NIGHT. A STRONG
CONSENSUS EXISTS AMONGST THE ECMWF/GFS/CANADIAN AND GFS ENSEMBLES
FOR THE TROUGH TO REACH THE WESTERN PLAINS BY 12Z TUESDAY...THEN
BEGIN TO SPLIT APART AS IT RUNS INTO THE VERY STRONG RIDGE TO ITS
EAST. THE NORTHERN PART OF THE TROUGH ENDS UP LIFTING NORTH TOWARDS
HUDSON/JAMES BAYS BY WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE SOUTHERN END CUTS OFF
INTO AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE 16.00Z GFS/ECMWF
AND SOME GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HINT THAT BY LATE THURSDAY THE UPPER
LOW COULD START LIFTING NORTH TOWARDS THE AREA. HOWEVER...THE 15.12Z
ECMWF...SOME 16.00Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND EXTRAPOLATION OF THE
16.00Z CANADIAN ALL SUGGEST A VERY SLOW MOVEMENT WHICH SEEMS MORE
REASONABLE.
REGARDING THE IMPACT ON THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE UPPER TROUGH...A
STRONG SOUTHERLY JET OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF IT SHOULD START PRODUCING
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF I-35 MONDAY MORNING. THESE
WILL THEN SLOWLY PROCEED TO MOVE EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. BEST CHANCES TO SEE PRECIPITATION
WOULD BE WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...CLOSER TO THE FORCING FROM
THE UPPER TROUGH. FOR NOW HAVE STAYED PRETTY CLOSE TO A CONSENSUS ON
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO HANDLE UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING AND DISTANCE
IN TIME IN THE FORECAST...THOUGH THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT. THE EXACT TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES COULD
CHANGE AS WE GET CLOSER. LOWER CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION EXIST
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...DUE TO THE LINGERING STREAM OF
MOISTURE AND FORCING FROM THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE UPPER
TROUGH...OR THE UPPER LOW APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A SLOW COOL DOWN THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD AS THE UPPER TROUGH/LOW APPROACH THE REGION. STILL...850MB
TEMPS DROP ONLY FROM AROUND 12C MONDAY TO 8-10C ON THURSDAY.
THEREFORE TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO STAY WELL ABOVE NORMAL...
ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT WITH THE CLOUDS PREVENTING HEAT LOSS. DEPENDING
ON THE PROGRESSION OF THE CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...POTENTIAL EXISTS TO BREAK RECORD HIGHS.
&&
.AVIATION...THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY
337 AM CDT FRI MAR 16 2012
APPEARS WINDS OFF THE SURFACE AROUND 925MB/1500-200FT ARE A BIT
STRONGER AND KEEPING THE LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER STIRRED ENOUGH TO
PREVENT DENSE FOG FROM FORMING AT THE KLSE TAF SITE. HAVE BACKED
OUT OF THE 1/4SM FG AS A RESULT AND GOING 6SM FROM
08-12Z...PERHAPS LOWERING TO AROUND 3SM BR AROUND 12Z...THEN
LIFTING TO P6SM BY 14Z AS WINDS SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE TO PICK
UP. KRST ALSO MAINTAING A 3 DEGREE THREE DEGREE TEMP/DEW POINT
SPREAD WITH WINDS MIXING THERE AS WELL. WILL KEEP THINGS AS IS
THERE AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR THROUGH THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...UNSEASONABLY MILD/MOIST AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS...WITH SOME
LATE DAY INSTABILITY COULD RESULT IN SOME SHRA/TS DEVELOPMENT.
HAVING A HARD TIME FINDING A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR CONVECTION
THOUGH...SO WILL NOT ADD TO THE TAF FOR NOW. HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR CONVECTION POTENTIAL TODAY...AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.CLIMATE...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY
303 AM CDT FRI MAR 16 2012
BOTH RECORD HIGHS AND RECORD WARM LOW TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE EACH
DAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS
CONTINUES TO RESIDE ACROSS THE AREA. NOTE THAT TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BEGIN COOLING MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT...CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION MOVE INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER...RECORDS ON THOSE DAYS
COMPARED TO FORECASTS SUGGEST POTENTIAL TO BREAK THEM.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
303 AM CDT FRI MAR 16 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...DAS
CLIMATE....AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
327 AM CDT FRI MAR 16 2012
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...WHILE A STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHES
ACROSS IOWA AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS TO LOW PRESSURE OVER SE ONTARIO.
SKIES ARE CLEAR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...THOUGH LOW STRATUS IS
STARTING TO EXPAND NORTHWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF LAKE
MICHIGAN. MAY HAVE TO MAKE A LAST MINUTE ADJUSTMENT BASED ON LATEST
TRENDS OF THIS STRATUS. SOME CONVECTION IS STARTING TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT OVER IOWA BUT WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
KEEP IT SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY. AS THIS FRONT RETURNS NORTH TODAY
AND TONIGHT...LOW CHANCES OF PRECIP ARE THE PRIMARY
CONCERN...FOLLOWED CLOSELY BY TEMPS.
TODAY...STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHING ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA AND
ILLINOIS WILL BEGIN TO RETURN NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT TODAY AND
WILL BISECT WISCONSIN FROM NW TO SE BY LATE IN THE DAY. PERSISTENT
EAST TO SE FLOW WILL EXIST NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY WHICH WILL PREVENT
THE FRONT FROM PUSHING INTO NE WISCONSIN. DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF
850MB MOISTURE ADVECTION AND FAIRLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...WILL HAVE SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVING IN ALOFT...THAT MAY
ENHANCE THE CAP MORE THAN WHAT THE NAM IS SHOWING ON PROGGED
SOUNDINGS. KTOP AND KSGF ARE ALSO SHOWING FAIRLY PRONOUNCED CAPPING
IN PLACE. SO WILL STICK WITH A DRY FORECAST WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE LOW 60S NE TO LOW 70S SW...LOCALLY COOLER NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN.
TONIGHT...SW FLOW CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN ALOFT WHICH WILL PUSH THE
FRONT THROUGH ALL BUT FAR NE WISCONSIN WHERE SE WIND WILL KEEP THE
SHALLOW MARINE LAYER IN PLACE. PROGGED SOUNDINGS INDICATE FAIRLY
SUBSTANTIAL ELEVATED CAPE DEVELOPING WITHIN THE LLJ AXIS OVER
CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY 06Z...TO THE TUNE OF 1100
J/KG IN THE GFS AND 2500 J/KG IN THE NAM WITHOUT MUCH CIN. NOT
ENTIRELY CONFIDENT IN THIS INSTABILITY MATERIALIZING FOR THE REASONS
MENTIONED ABOVE (STRONG CAP ON SOUNDINGS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS).
BUT EVEN WITH THIS INSTABILITY...TOUGH TO FIND A TRIGGER TO INITIATE
CONVECTION. DO SEE THE POSSIBILITY OF A WEAK WAVE MAKING IT TO
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND IOWA LATE...BUT IT MAY BE A TAD TOO FAR AWAY
FOR ANY IMPACT IF THE MODELS HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON IT (NOT SURE OF
THAT EITHER). SO WILL GO DRY FOR THE FORECAST. NOT EXPECTING MUCH
FOG CONCERNS EITHER DUE TO THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. LOWS
RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.
SATURDAY...THE WARM FRONT FINALLY CLEARS THE ENTIRE AREA ON SATURDAY
WITH WINDS TURNING TO THE SOUTH. SHOULD SEE A VERY WARM DAY PENDING
CLOUDS AND PRECIP. IF THAT WAVE IS ACTUALLY PRESENT...IT WILL PASS
ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND COULD INTERACT WITH ELEVATED
INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND STORMS. AS A RESULT...DO NOT
HAVE A CONVINCING ARGUMENT TO REMOVE POPS. TEMPS WILL SOAR BACK
INTO THE 70S EVERYWHERE.
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THRU THURSDAY. MAIN FORECAST
CHALLENGES REMAIN HOW WARM WILL TEMPS CAN GET SUNDAY-TUESDAY...FOG
POTENTIAL...AND PRECIP CHANCES.
MODELS REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE WEST COAST...AND
UPPER RIDGING DOMINATES THE EASTERN U.S. MODELS BEGIN TO DIFFER BY
MID-WEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH CUTS OFF AND DRIFTS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
MANY RECORD HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SHATTERED OVER THE WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL USHER IN WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. 850/925 TEMPS SUPPORT MID/UPPER 70S FOR
CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WI ON SUNDAY...AND LOW/MID 70S NORTH. SOME
SPOTS MAY TOUCH THE 80 DEGREE MARK ACROSS CENTRAL WI! MAYBE
SLIGHTLY COOLER ON MONDAY...BUT STILL VERY WARM. MORE CLOUDS AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ALOFT FOR TUESDAY...BUT TEMPS STILL EXPECTED
TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S NORTH AND LOW/MID 70S SOUTH. THE COOL
WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL KEEP THINGS MUCH COOLER ALONG THE
LAKESHORE AND NEAR THE BAY OF GREEN BAY THROUGH THE PERIOD. RECORD
HIGH MINIMUMS WILL LIKELY BE SHATTERED AS WELL IN MANY SPOTS...
WITH LOWS AT NIGHT ONLY FALLING INTO THE 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS
AWAY FROM THE LAKE AND FAR NORTHERN WI. SURFACE WINDS BACK TOWARD
THE SE EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING THE COOLER TEMPS AT THE
LAKESHORE A LITTLE FARTHER INLAND ACROSS FAR EASTERN WI.
PRECIP CHANCES STILL CHALLENGING THROUGH THE EXTENDED AS QUESTIONS
REMAIN REGARDING TIMING/LOCATION OF WEAK DISTURBANCES ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE RIDGE...AND TIMING THE UPPER TROUGH MID-WEEK. SATURDAY
NIGHT IS THE FIRST PERIOD OF CONCERN. GFS/NAM DIFFER ON AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY ALOFT...WITH THE GFS SHOWING VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES. ECMWF/GEM FAVOR THE GFS. MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN
NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...VERY WEAK SHEAR...PLUS STILL NO CLEAR
TRIGGER FOR PRECIP ACTIVITY TO FIRE ON...WITH MODELS ONLY SHOWING
A FEW WEAK VORT MAXES. MAJORITY OF MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SHOW
SOME PRECIP SATURDAY NIGHT...SO FEEL THE NEED TO KEEP SOME SLIGHT
POPS IN THE GRIDS. MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP FOG EACH NIGHT...AS
DEWPOINTS CREEP TOWARD 60. WILL ADD FOG TO LAKE MICHIGAN AND NEAR
THE LAKESHORE...MAINLY ALONG DOOR COUNTY...AS COOLER WATERS SHOULD
ENHANCE FOG POTENTIAL...BUT HOLD OFF ON ANY FOG MENTION ELSEWHERE.
WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS
THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. EVEN THE PRECIP
HAPPY MODELS KEEP THINGS DRY! SOME DISAGREEMENT ON HOW FAST TO
BRING THE CHANCE FOR PRECIP INTO THE AREA AS THE UPPER TROUGH
ADVANCES SLOWLY EASTWARD. PREFER A SLOWER SOLUTION...SO WILL KEEP
THE FORECAST DRY ACROSS EASTERN WI THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WILL HOLD
ON TO SOME LOW CHANCE POPS FOR CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WI WHICH
WILL BE A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE APPROACHING TROUGH. WILL NOT BRING
HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA UNTIL WEDNESDAY...AS THE UPPER
TROUGH FINALLY PUSHES CLOSE ENOUGH...AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND COLD
FRONT PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO INCREASE RAIN/STORM
CHANCES.
&&
.AVIATION...PLAN TO CONT WITH JUST MVFR VSBYS LATER TNGT AS GUID
AGAIN SEEMS TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH LOW CLDS AND FOG.
SKOWRONSKI
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MPC/BERSCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
303 AM CDT FRI MAR 16 2012
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
303 AM CDT FRI MAR 16 2012
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...AS WELL AS THE LONG PERIOD OF WARMTH SEEN.
CURRENTLY AS OF 07Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED TROUGHING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND RIDGING BUILDING
OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO MANITOBA. TWO OTHER FEATURES OF NOTE
IN WATER VAPOR ARE SHORTWAVES OVER NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND NEAR
TUSCON ARIZONA. UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR REMAINS UNDER THE BUILDING
RIDGING AND PRETTY MUCH THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE U.S.. 850MB
TEMPS AT 00Z RANGED FROM 10-12C AT BIS...ABR...MPX AND GRB...WHILE
OAX AND DVN WERE WARMER AT 14C. AT THE SURFACE...LEE TROUGHING WAS
PRESENT FROM THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS DOWN INTO NEW MEXICO...WHILE A
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING OFF THE LEE TROUGHING EAST ALONG US-20 IN
IOWA. THIS STATIONARY FRONT NOT ONLY SEPARATES SOME OF THE WARMER
850MB AIR SEEN ON 00Z RAOBS...BUT MOISTURE AS WELL. THE 850MB
DEWPOINT AT MPX WAS -10C...COMPARED TO 6C AT DVN. ON A SIDE NOTE...
THE 12Z NAM/GFS WERE 3-5C TOO HIGH WITH THE DEWPOINT AT 850MB FOR A
12 HOUR FORECAST AT DVN...BUT NEARLY SPOT ON AT MPX. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS JUMP NEARLY 20F BETWEEN MSP AND DSM WITH WIDESPREAD MID
50S TO LOW 60S READINGS SOUTH OF THE FRONT. 925MB PROFILER AND RADAR
VWP DATA SHOWED AN INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND FROM OKLAHOMA
INTO IOWA AND THE DAKOTAS...INDICATIVE OF THE BUILDING UPPER
RIDGING. SO FAR ANY FOG THAT HAS FORMED HAS BEEN PATCHY AND
RESTRICTED TO RIVER VALLEYS.
UPPER AND SURFACE PATTERN...OVERALL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
HERE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. TROUGHING CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST IS GOING TO BECOME A FULL LONGWAVE TROUGH DOWN THE WEST
COAST OF THE U.S. BY 18Z SATURDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...THE UPPER FLOW
OVER THE FORECAST AREA BRIEFLY TURNS SOUTHWEST FOR TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY...THEN HEIGHTS/RIDGING BUILDS OVERHEAD. FOR SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGHING SHIFTS EAST INTO THE
ROCKIES...RESULTING IN A SLIGHT SHIFT EASTWARD OF THE RIDGING OVER
THE FORECAST AREA. IN ADDITION...A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ENDS UP
FORMING OVER EASTERN MONTANA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. NOW REGARDING
SOME OF THE INDIVIDUAL PERIOD DETAILS:
TODAY AND TONIGHT...AS THE UPPER RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS
PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...THE STATIONARY FRONT COMES
NORTH...CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 18Z AND 06Z. GIVEN ALL
THE UNSEASONABLE WARMTH AND HUMIDITY ALONG/SOUTH OF THE FRONT...
CONCERN IS IF ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD FORM ON THIS
FRONT. IN FACT...16.00Z GFS SHOWS ONLY 25-50 J/KG OF MLCIN
ALONG/SOUTH OF THE FRONT. ONLY REAL SHORTWAVE OF NOTE IS THE ONE
OVER NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...ALBEIT IT IS VERY WEAK...WHICH IS PROGGED
TO MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HARD TO SAY IF THIS
INITIATES CONVECTION OR NOT. THE 16.00Z GFS SAYS IT DOES OVER FAR
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN...WHILE THE 16.00Z NAM/SPC WRF SAYS NOT AT ALL.
REGARDING THE FRONT ITSELF...0-2 KM CONVERGENCE PLOTS FROM BOTH THE
GFS AND NAM SHOW NO CONVERGENCE OCCURRING. FEELING IS THAT GIVEN THE
FRONT HAS NO CONVERGENCE...WE WILL END UP DRY...BUT THE WEAK
SHORTWAVE IS A WORRY. WHATEVER DOES FORM THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD
DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. THE OVERNIGHT THEN LOOKS
DRY WITH THE AREA UNDERNEATH A BROAD STREAM OF 925-850MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WITH NO FOCUSING MECHANISM. REGARDING TEMPERATURES...850MB
READINGS HOLD STEADY TODAY BETWEEN 10-12C...THOUGH 925MB READINGS
ARE PROGGED 2-4C HIGHER NORTH OF I-90 COMPARED TO 00Z FRIDAY.
THEREFORE...ANTICIPATING HIGHS TO BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY SOUTH OF
I-90 AND 4-6F WARMER NORTH OF I-90. CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION ON A
SOUTHERLY BREEZE TONIGHT...PLUS HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL ALL LEAD TO
LOWS STAYING UP IN THE 50S. A FEW SPOTS MAY NOT DROP BELOW 60.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THINGS GET EVEN MORE MURKY TO FIND
TRIGGERS FOR CONVECTION. WITH THE MAIN FRONT...NOW A WARM FRONT...
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...AM CONCERNED THIS ENTIRE TIME PERIOD WE
WILL END UP CAPPED. THE 16.00Z NAM DOES DEVELOP CONVECTION NORTH OF
I-90 SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT THIS LOOKS SUSPICIOUS. THE
SHORTWAVE CAUSING THE NAM TO DEVELOP THE CONVECTION ORIGINATES FROM
UTAH RIGHT NOW...WHICH IS TOUGH TO FIND ON WATER VAPOR...THEN
SUDDENLY STRENGTHENS OVER EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA LATE SATURDAY.
OUTSIDE OF THE NAM...THE CANADIAN/GFS/ECMWF ALL BASICALLY DEPICT A
DRY SCENARIO...WITH A LITTLE SMATTERING OF QPF ON SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. HAVE DECIDED SINCE THE SMATTERING OF QPF STILL
EXISTS TO MAINTAIN THE PREVIOUS 20 PERCENT CHANCES FOR SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT...PER ALSO COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.
UNLESS A MORE DEFINED SIGNAL FOR PRECIPITATION BECOMES APPARENT...
ENVISION THESE 20 PERCENT CHANCES CAN BE DROPPED. THIS LEAVES
TEMPERATURES THE MAIN CONCERN. 925MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED BETWEEN
16-18C BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THESE READINGS PRODUCED HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S OVER NORTHEAST IOWA YESTERDAY...SO THESE SHOULD BE
SEEN IN MOST AREAS OVER THE WEEKEND. LOWS ALSO EXPECTED TO STAY VERY
WARM WITH ABNORMALLY HIGH DEWPOINTS AND A SUSTAINED SOUTH BREEZE.
NOTE...SHOULD ANY STORMS FORM DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...0-6KM
SHEAR IS LESS THAN 20 KT. PLUS...ALL CAPE PROFILES SUGGEST A NARROW
RIBBON. THEREFORE...NO SEVERE STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH LIGHTNING
AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN THE MAIN CONCERNS.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
303 AM CDT FRI MAR 16 2012
ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD FOCUS IS ON THE SPEED AND EVOLUTION OF THE
LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE ROCKIES SUNDAY NIGHT. A STRONG
CONSENSUS EXISTS AMONGST THE ECMWF/GFS/CANADIAN AND GFS ENSEMBLES
FOR THE TROUGH TO REACH THE WESTERN PLAINS BY 12Z TUESDAY...THEN
BEGIN TO SPLIT APART AS IT RUNS INTO THE VERY STRONG RIDGE TO ITS
EAST. THE NORTHERN PART OF THE TROUGH ENDS UP LIFTING NORTH TOWARDS
HUDSON/JAMES BAYS BY WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE SOUTHERN END CUTS OFF
INTO AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE 16.00Z GFS/ECMWF
AND SOME GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HINT THAT BY LATE THURSDAY THE UPPER
LOW COULD START LIFTING NORTH TOWARDS THE AREA. HOWEVER...THE 15.12Z
ECMWF...SOME 16.00Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND EXTRAPOLATION OF THE
16.00Z CANADIAN ALL SUGGEST A VERY SLOW MOVEMENT WHICH SEEMS MORE
REASONABLE.
REGARDING THE IMPACT ON THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE UPPER TROUGH...A
STRONG SOUTHERLY JET OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF IT SHOULD START PRODUCING
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF I-35 MONDAY MORNING. THESE
WILL THEN SLOWLY PROCEED TO MOVE EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. BEST CHANCES TO SEE PRECIPITATION
WOULD BE WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...CLOSER TO THE FORCING FROM
THE UPPER TROUGH. FOR NOW HAVE STAYED PRETTY CLOSE TO A CONSENSUS ON
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO HANDLE UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING AND DISTANCE
IN TIME IN THE FORECAST...THOUGH THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT. THE EXACT TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES COULD
CHANGE AS WE GET CLOSER. LOWER CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION EXIST
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...DUE TO THE LINGERING STREAM OF
MOISTURE AND FORCING FROM THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE UPPER
TROUGH...OR THE UPPER LOW APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A SLOW COOL DOWN THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD AS THE UPPER TROUGH/LOW APPROACH THE REGION. STILL...850MB
TEMPS DROP ONLY FROM AROUND 12C MONDAY TO 8-10C ON THURSDAY.
THEREFORE TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO STAY WELL ABOVE NORMAL...
ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT WITH THE CLOUDS PREVENTING HEAT LOSS. DEPENDING
ON THE PROGRESSION OF THE CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...POTENTIAL EXISTS TO BREAK RECORD HIGHS.
&&
.AVIATION...
1115 PM CDT THU MAR 15 2012
POTENTIAL FOR SUB 1SM BR OVERNIGHT-EARLY FRI MORNING IS THE MAIN
AVIATION CONCERN.
SFC TDS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S AT LATE EVENING...AND EXPECT THEM TO
STAY THERE. T/TD SPREAD AT 7 F AT KRST AT 10 PM...BUT ONLY 3 AT
KLSE. LIGHT SFC WIND FIELD...BUT RUC13 BUFKIT SOUNDINGS HAVE
20 KTS OF WIND BY 300 KFT AT 09Z...AND AT LEAST 10 KTS AT KLSE AT
300 FT AT 09Z. BOTH HAVE DECOUPLED...BUT THE SHELTERED LOCATIONS OF
KLSE WOULD BE MORE SUPPORTIVE OF FOG FORMATION.
FOG PARAMETERS POINT TO KLSE FOR THE HIGHEST RISK OF 1/4SM FG.
PROBABLY TOO MUCH MIXING AT KRST TO DROP THAT LOW...PLUS THERE IS
STILL A GOOD T/TD SPREAD.
WILL CONTINUE THE 1/4SM AT KLSE. SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THERE MIGHT
NOT BE IMPROVEMENT AT KLSE UNTIL 16Z...WITH THE INVERSION NOT
BREAKING/MIXING OUT UNTIL 19Z OR SO.
FOR KRST...NOT SOLD THAT VSBYS WILL DROP BELOW 1SM...2 TO 3SM MIGHT
BE MORE REASONABLE.
MOIST AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...WITH PWS UPWARDS OF 300% OF NORMAL. THIS...WITH SOME
LATE DAY INSTABILITY COULD RESULT IN SOME SHRA/TS DEVELOPMENT.
HAVING A HARD TIME FINDING A FOCUS THOUGH...SO WILL NOT ADD TO THE
TAF. ITS SOMETHING TO WATCH TODAY...AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.CLIMATE...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY
303 AM CDT FRI MAR 16 2012
BOTH RECORD HIGHS AND RECORD WARM LOW TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE EACH
DAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS
CONTINUES TO RESIDE ACROSS THE AREA. NOTE THAT TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BEGIN COOLING MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT...CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION MOVE INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER...RECORDS ON THOSE DAYS
COMPARED TO FORECASTS SUGGEST POTENTIAL TO BREAK THEM.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
303 AM CDT FRI MAR 16 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...RIECK
CLIMATE....AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1115 PM CDT THU MAR 15 2012
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT
600 PM CDT THU MAR 15 2012
FOG IS THE CONCERN TONIGHT...AND A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MIGHT BE
NEEDED.
MISS ON THE DENSE FOG FROM THIS MORNING AS THE SFC FRONT DID NOT
USHER IN THE DRIER AIR ANTICIPATED. DEW POINTS HOVER NEAR 50
CURRENTLY...AND WILL LIKELY HOLD THERE THROUGH THE NIGHT. SFC WINDS
ARE STILL LIGHT...BUT BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW AN INCREASE UP TO 15 KTS
AFTER 06Z FROM ABOUT 300 FT AND ABOVE. NOT QUITE AS FAVORABLE FOR
DENSE FOG AS THIS MORNING...BUT DECOUPLING WILL HAVE ALREADY
OCCURRED BY THEN...ALLOWING FOR POOLING OF THE NEAR SFC MOISTURE.
RIBBON OF HIGH DEW POINTS INDICATED VIA MSAS ANALYSIS...RIDING THE
I-90 CORRIDOR TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. A BATCH OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY...BUT SHOULD EXIT EAST BETWEEN
02-04Z...WITH SKC-SCT CLOUDS AFTER THAT. SO...A LOT OF FAVORABLE
VARIABLES TO SUPPORT FOG...AND DENSE FOG. THE GREATEST THREAT LOOKS
TO BE FROM THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER EAST...ESPECIALLY IN THE I-90
CORRIDOR. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
314 PM CDT THU MAR 15 2012
15.00Z GFS/GEM/ECMWF IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT MON/TUE WITH THE SLOW
EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE WESTERN CONUS LONGWAVE TROUGH. AS PREVIOUS
FORECASTER MENTIONED...MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH THE EVOLUTION OF
THIS THOUGH...AS SEEN IN THE LESSER RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY. 15.12Z
RUNS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER THAN THE 15.00Z RUNS...MORE IN LINE WITH
THE 15.00Z ENSEMBLE MEANS. 15.12Z GFS/ECMWF WITH VERY SIMILAR OUT
INTO THE TUE/WED TIME-FRAME. ALL MODELS REMAIN SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE
WITH THE TROUGH WED/THU BUT TREND TOWARD DEVELOPING AN UPPER LOW IN
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THU...TO BE EJECTED NORTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA
LATE NEXT WEEK. BETTER BETWEEN MODEL CONSISTENCY MON-THU LENDS SOME
BETTER CONFIDENCE TO THE LONG-TERM PORTION OF THE FCST. NO MATTER
HOW THE TROUGH/UPPER LOW EVOLVES THRU NEXT WEEK THE MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE. THE SMALLER/MESO-SCALE DETAIL
DIFFERENCES IN THE DAY 4-7 PERIOD DO LEAD TO SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE
MON-THU SHRA/TSRA CHANCES. DEEP SOUTH FLOW AHEAD OF THE SLOWLY
PROGRESSIVE SFC-MID LEVEL TROUGH PULLS A VERY MOIST AIRMASS...PW
VALUES OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES /250-350 PERCENT OF NORMAL/ NORTHWARD INTO
THE REGION BY MON. FORCINGS FOR CONVERGENCE/LIFT AHEAD OF THE SFC-
MID LEVEL TROUGH BEGIN TO SPREAD EAST INTO THE FCST AREA MON...THEN
TRANSLATE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE FCST AREA MON NIGHT INTO THU. WITH
THE DEEP MOISTURE/ NEARLY SATURATED AIRMASS AND THE IMPROVED MODEL
CONSENSUS...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES IN THE 25 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE MUCH OF
THE MON NIGHT THRU WED PERIOD LOOK GOOD AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER THIS
TIMING SUBJECT TO CHANGE IF TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLOW. INSTABILITY IS
QUESTIONABLE BY TUE AND BEYOND...WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS MOIST-
ADIABATIC FROM THE SFC-500MB AND AREA LOOKING TO BE UNDER RATHER
PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER. FOR NOW CONTINUED AN ISOLATED TSRA MENTION
FOR TUE THRU THU. T GRIDS. DID RAISE HIGHS A BIT MON/TUE WITH THE
DEEP SOUTH FLOW AND POTENTIAL TO BE DRY THESE DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...
1115 PM CDT THU MAR 15 2012
POTENTIAL FOR SUB 1SM BR OVERNIGHT-EARLY FRI MORNING IS THE MAIN
AVIATION CONCERN.
SFC TDS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S AT LATE EVENING...AND EXPECT THEM TO
STAY THERE. T/TD SPREAD AT 7 F AT KRST AT 10 PM...BUT ONLY 3 AT
KLSE. LIGHT SFC WIND FIELD...BUT RUC13 BUFKIT SOUNDINGS HAVE
20 KTS OF WIND BY 300 KFT AT 09Z...AND AT LEAST 10 KTS AT KLSE AT
300 FT AT 09Z. BOTH HAVE DECOUPLED...BUT THE SHELTERED LOCATIONS OF
KLSE WOULD BE MORE SUPPORTIVE OF FOG FORMATION.
FOG PARAMETERS POINT TO KLSE FOR THE HIGHEST RISK OF 1/4SM FG.
PROBABLY TOO MUCH MIXING AT KRST TO DROP THAT LOW...PLUS THERE IS
STILL A GOOD T/TD SPREAD.
WILL CONTINUE THE 1/4SM AT KLSE. SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THERE MIGHT
NOT BE IMPROVEMENT AT KLSE UNTIL 16Z...WITH THE INVERSION NOT
BREAKING/MIXING OUT UNTIL 19Z OR SO.
FOR KRST...NOT SOLD THAT VSBYS WILL DROP BELOW 1SM...2 TO 3SM MIGHT
BE MORE REASONABLE.
MOIST AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...WITH PWS UPWARDS OF 300% OF NORMAL. THIS...WITH SOME
LATE DAY INSTABILITY COULD RESULT IN SOME SHRA/TS DEVELOPMENT.
HAVING A HARD TIME FINDING A FOCUS THOUGH...SO WILL NOT ADD TO THE
TAF. ITS SOMETHING TO WATCH TODAY...AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.CLIMATE...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY
314 PM CDT THU MAR 15 2012
BOTH RECORD HIGHS AND RECORD WARM LOW TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE
EACH DAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS
CONTINUES TO RESIDE ACROSS THE AREA. AT THIS TIME...THE WARMEST
DAYS LOOK TO BE FRIDAY...SATURDAY...AND MONDAY.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
314 PM CDT THU MAR 15 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION.....RIECK
CLIMATE......BOYNE/RRS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1056 PM CDT THU MAR 15 2012
UPDATE...
WILL BE AWAITING WHAT 03/16 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE WILL HAVE FOR
POSITION OF SHALLOW COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT LINE CURRENTLY BI-
SECTING THE CWA...AND ASSOCIATED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/TEMPERATURE
PLACEMENT. SURFACE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...REFLECTED IN HIGHER DEW
POINTS ALONG THE BOUNDARY...IS ABOUT WHERE IT WAS EXPECTED. WILL
BE MONITORING TRENDS AS ATMOSPHERE COOLS FOR ANY NEEDED
ADJUSTMENTS TO TIMING OR AREAL COVERAGE OF DENSE FOG ADVISORY.
BACK EDGE OF LAKE FOG/STRATUS HAS CLEARED TO THE SOUTH OF WIND
POINT AND RACINE...BUT IS MOVING INLAND OVER FAR NE ILLINOIS PER
SATELLITE 11U-3.9U FOG PRODUCT AND WAUKEGAN AIRPORT OB. ALSO
APPEARS TO BE CLIPPING FAR SOUTHEAST KENOSHA COUNTY NEAR PLEASANT
PRAIRIE. THIS INLAND PUSH WAS EXPECTED...BUT LOOKS AS IF IT WILL
BE FOCUSED SOUTH OF THE BORDER FOR NOW.
ONE CHANGE PER LATEST RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND INSPECTION OF
18Z NAM SOUNDINGS...AS WELL AS LATEST HRRR SURFACE TEMPERATURE/DEW
POINT FORECASTS...WILL EXTEND THE ADVISORY TO 15Z FRIDAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR DELAY IN NEAR-SURFACE MIX OUT PER THE SOUNDINGS.
AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...
FOR KMKE AND KENW...LAKE FOG IS BACKING UP AND SLOWLY SPREADING
NORTHWEST. LOOKS AS IF IT GOES RIGHT TO IFR CIGS AND VSBYS TO
START...WITH VSBYS LOWERING TO LIFR/VLIFR BY 09Z. TEMPERATURE/DEW
POINT SPREAD IN SURFACE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ZONE IS LOWERING
INLAND...AND EXPECT TO SEE HAZY 7SM VSBYS GO TO MVFR FOG AROUND
06Z...AND LIFR/VLIFR AROUND 09Z AT KMSN AND KUES.
BIG TRICK IS WHEN TO RAISE CONDITIONS AFTER SUNRISE. LATEST NAM
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE FOG WILL RAISE TO A LIFR STRATUS DECK
BETWEEN 13Z AND 14Z EVERYWHERE...THEN BECOME SCATTERED AT KMSN AND
KUES BETWEEN 15Z AND 16Z. KMKE AND KENW WILL BE IMPACTED BY COOL
ONSHORE SOUTHEAST FLOW OFF THE LAKE...WHICH KEEPS VSBYS NO BETTER
THAN MVFR THROUGH THE DAY...THEN BACK DOWN AGAIN OVERNIGHT FRIDAY
NIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 PM CDT THU MAR 15 2012/
SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.
A VERY SHALLOW COLD FRONT RACED DOWN THE WESTERN LAKE MICHIGAN
SHORELINE TODAY...CAUSING TEMPERATURES TO DROP ABOUT 15 DEGREES IN A
MATTER OF MINUTES RIGHT ALONG THE SHORELINE. MITCHELL AIRPORT
DROPPED FROM A RECORD HIGH OF 72 DEGREES TO 55 DEGREES LATE IN THE
MORNING. THE DENSITY DISCONTINUITY ALONG THE FRONT WAS VISIBLE ON
THE MKE AIRPORT TERMINAL DOPPLER RADAR THIS AFTERNOON...AND SHOWED
THAT THE LAYER OF COLD AIR WAS ONLY ABOUT 500 FEET DEEP. THE FRONT
MIXED OUT SO QUICKLY THAT TIMMERMAN FIELD BARELY EXPERIENCED A
TEMPERATURE DROP AND KENOSHA AIRPORT REMAINED IN THE 70S AFTER THE
WIND SHIFT.
CUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WHERE DEWPOINT TEMPS LINGERED IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
THE SOUTHWEST FORECAST AREA MIXED OUT THIS AFTERNOON SO TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 70S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 40S WERE EXPERIENCED.
EXPECTING AREAS OF DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP TONIGHT...MOST LIKELY ALONG
THE SURFACE CONVERGENCE ZONE INDICATED BY THE CU FIELD. AREAS MOST
LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED WILL BE A LINE FROM THE DELLS TO MADISON TO
LAKE GENEVA TO KENOSHA. ISSUED DENSE FOG ADVISORY...WITH MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE.
CAPE VALUES WILL BE INCREASING TO OVER 2000J/KG FRI AFTERNOON. NAM
SHOWING MUCH LESS OF A CAP THAN THE GFS. NON-ZERO THREAT FOR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...BUT DID NOT MENTION IN FORECAST DUE TO THE
VERY LOW CHANCE AND NO TRIGGER MECHANISM.
THERE WILL BE A STRONG TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY. WENT WITH MAINLY 2M NAM
BIAS-CORRECTED...MODIFIED BY AN OBS-BASED MOS FORECAST FOR MAX
TEMPS. WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTHWARD FRI
AFTERNOON...THESE TEMPS COULD BE UNDERDONE BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH
A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE WRN USA LATE FRI NT AND SAT
WITH STRONG CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS OF MT. A PORTION
OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND THE SFC FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY LIFT NEWD
INTO CANADA MON/MON NT. THUS WI REMAINS IN SW FLOW ALOFT AND SLY
FLOW AT THE SFC WITH THE WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE SET FOR FRI
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. A VERY WARM...HUMID...UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL
PREVAIL WITH WEAK VORTICITY MAXIMUMS IN THE FLOW BRINGING SMALL
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRI NT/SAT AND AGAIN INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE AT TIMES INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM
A PORTION OF THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT INTO CANADA WHILE
THE OTHER PORTION WILL BECOME A CUTOFF UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
OR SRN PLAINS. VERY MILD TEMPS...HUMID AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE. TSTORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN WITH A DECAYING COLD
FRONT APPROACHING ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF THE UPPER LOW.
AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...
LIFR OR LOWER VSBYS/CIGS IN AREAS OF DENSE FOG TONIGHT ALONG AN AREA
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. AREAS MOST LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED
WITH DENSE FOG WILL BE A LINE FROM THE DELLS TO MADISON TO LAKE
GENEVA TO KENOSHA. WAUKESHA WILL BE ON THE BORDER OF FOG/NO FOG. NOT
EXPECTING DENSE FOG IN MILWAUKEE...ALTHOUGH THEY COULD GET FOG
ADVECTING INLAND FROM THE LAKE.
FOG WILL BURN OFF MID MORNING. ONLY SCATTERED CLOUDS POSSIBLE DURING
THE DAY...THEN FOG POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN FRI NIGHT.
MARINE...
AREAS OF DENSE FOG BEING OBSERVED IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS BETWEEN
MILWAUKEE AND WAUKEGAN. THIS IS A FAIRLY TRANSIENT AND SHALLOW AREA
OF FOG...SO NO HEADLINES AT THIS TIME. WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...SO FOG WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT. USE CAUTION IF MAKING
PLANS TO BE ON THE LAKE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 10 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR WIZ056>058-
063>065-069>072.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...REM
TONIGHT/FRIDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MRC
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...GEHRING
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
937 AM EDT FRI MAR 16 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE TRI STATE AREA TODAY AND PASSES
THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OFF THE EAST COAST
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON
MONDAY...OTHERWISE DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MINOR UPDATES TO THE GRIDS THIS MORNING. HAVE TRIED TO TIME
SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND CT EARLY...THEN ADDITIONAL
BATCH THAT WAS IN CENTRAL/EASTERN PA AT 11Z. 08Z HRRR SHOWS THEM
WEAKENING AS THEY PROGRESS EAST WHICH MAY OCCUR WITH RELATIVELY
DRY AIR IN THE 950-800MB LAYER...BUT WITH A WEAK MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT IN VCNTY...CHC POPS CONTINUE
ALTHOUGH RAINFALL WILL BE PRIMARILY LIGHT OR IN THE FORM OF
DRIZZLE.
OTHERWISE...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE MID ATLANTIC AND
BACK NORTHWARD THROUGH PA TOWARD A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. ANOTHER WEAK LOW ALONG THE BOUNDARY...SITUATED OFF
THE DELMARVA WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST...HELPING MAINTAIN ON ONSHORE
FLOW OVER THE CWA. THIS...COUPLED WITH A LACK OF A SIGNIFICANT LOW
LEVEL JET AND ONLY WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST OUT OF THE GREAT
LAKES SHOULD PREVENT ANY WARM FRONT PASSAGE FROM OCCURRING
TODAY...KEEPING US IN A MARITIME POLAR AIRMASS THROUGH THE DAY.
A STRONGER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE THEN APPROACHES IN THE
AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL HELP A COLD FRONT ADVANCE EAST TOWARDS
US...AND PERHAPS ALSO WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH PASSING THROUGH BY
LATE AFTERNOON. THETA-E RIDGE AND PWATS WILL INCREASE...AND THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A WEAK UPPER JET STREAK SHIFTS OUR WAY.
LOW VALUES OF MUCAPE AND SHOWALTER INDICES APPROACHING ZERO POINT
TO A LITTLE ELEVATED CONVECTION POSSIBLY REACHING PERHAPS AS FAR
EAST AS THE CITY. SHOWERS THAT OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON ARE
THEREFORE EXPECTED TO HAVE HEAVIER RAINFALL INTENSITIES VS. THE
MORNING HOURS. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP ISOLATED THUNDER MAINLY WEST
OF THE HUDSON. IN GENERAL...HIGH CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY POPS FOR THE
CWA. BLEND OF MAV/NAM MOS LOOKED GOOD FOR THE MOST PART FOR HIGHS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH DURING THE EVENING...BUT MODELS
SHOWING PLENTY OF DRYING ALOFT BY THE TIME IT MAKES IT THROUGH...SO
LIKELY A DRY PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...AND RAIN CHANCES WILL BE MAINLY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE EXITING PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE EARLY
IN THE EVENING.
MODELS SHOWING SOME MOISTURE GETTING TRAPPED BELOW A STRENGTHENING
LOW LEVEL INVERSION...THEN SCOURING OUT SOMEWHAT IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAVE THEREFORE GONE WITH A MOSTLY CLOUDY FORECAST FOR THE AT LEAST
THE FIRST HALF OF THE MORNING MORNING...THEN TURNING PARTLY SUNNY.
AND WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW...LEANED MORE TOWARDS THE COOLER NAM MOS
FOR HIGHS ON SATURDAY. THESE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FULL LATITUDE UPPER TROUGH ENCOMPASSING WESTERN NOAM AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY MOVING INLAND AND IS FORECASTED TO CUTOFF
OVER THE SOUTHWEST ON TUE. MEANWHILE A HIGHLY ANOMALOUS RIDGE WILL
DOMINATE THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
CONTINUATION OF A DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA.
H5 HEIGHTS MAY COME CLOSE TO 580DM OVER THE NORTHEAST BY WED. DUE TO
LIMITED MARCH SUN ANGLE THIS WOULD TRANSLATE INTO 70S ACROSS
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA. HAVE GONE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
GUIDANCE HERE...BUT HIGH TEMPS CLOSER TO THE COAST ARE TRICKIER WITH
A SLY FLOW EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. THE OTHER CAVEAT IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR STRATUS AT NIGHT. WE ALREADY WILL HAVE A WELL ESTABLISHED SLY
FLOW IN PLACE FROM SUN NIGHT ON AND DEWPOINTS OVER THE WATER ARE
FORECASTED TO BE ABOVE SFC WATER TEMPS SO THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRATUS INCREASES EACH NIGHT. LOW CLOUDS ARE TRICKY AND AREAL
EXTENT IS DIFFICULT TO PREDICT SO DO NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO
PUT THEM IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME...BUT FOG/STRATUS SEASON IS
HERE. IF THESE CLOUDS DO OCCUR...HIGH TEMPS BECOME DIFFICULT DUE
TO TIMING OF STRATUS BURNING OFF. SCENARIO DEPICTS THAT OF STRATUS
REMAINING OFFSHORE DURING THE DAY AND PUSHING BACK IN DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WITH COOLING. SOME PLACES LIKE EASTERN LI/CT
MAY NOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE SOME DAYS BEFORE THE
CLOUDS ROLL BACK IN.
SEA BREEZES WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE COAST MUCH OF THE WEEK...BUT
AGAIN WILL DEPEND ON HEATING. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF LATER
GUIDANCE COMES IN WITH UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 ACROSS SOME INTERIOR
LOCATIONS.
AS FOR PRECIP...OTHER THAN AN UPPER DISTURBANCE APPROACHING WESTERN
ZONES LATE SUN NIGHT/MON IT WILL REMAIN DRY. EC BRINGS THE
SHORTWAVE DIRECTLY OVER THE LOCAL AREA AND IS MORE ROBUST WITH
PRECIP AMOUNTS...HOWEVER HAVE CHOSEN TO STICK CLOSER TO THE NAM/GFS
WHICH TRACKS THE MORE ROBUST SHORTWAVE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST WITH A WEAKER VORT APPROACHING US FROM THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION WITH MUCH LIGHTER QPF.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS OUT OF THE REGION AS A LOW PRESSURE AREA
DRAGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH LATE TODAY. IFR CONDITIONS PERSIST
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH VFR EXPECTED BY TONIGHT.
MAIN CONCERN THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON ARE IFR CIGS WITH
OCCASIONAL LIFR. DECENT CONFIDENCE LIFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
15Z...WITH LOW CONFIDENCE OF CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON SO HAVE
ONLY AS TEMPO THROUGH 15Z. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES LATER
TODAY...MIXING INCREASES AND WE SHOULD SEE THE CIGS INCREASE TO
VFR BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS ALL AREAS.
EAST SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY
18Z...AND PERSIST THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. LIGHT DRIZZLE IMPACTS
THE SITES THIS MORNING...WITH SCT ACTIVITY MOVING IN THIS
AFTERNOON. LOW CONFIDENCE IN LOCATION THOUGH HAS KEPT FROM
MENTIONING IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN
END TIME OF IFR/LIFR AND FOR POSSIBLE PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN
END TIME OF IFR/LIFR AND FOR POSSIBLE PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN
END TIME OF IFR/LIFR AND FOR POSSIBLE PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN
END TIME OF IFR/LIFR AND FOR POSSIBLE PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN
END TIME OF IFR/LIFR AND FOR POSSIBLE PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN
END TIME OF IFR AND FOR POSSIBLE PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.SATURDAY...POSSIBLE IFR/NEAR IFR CONDITIONS EARLY...THEN VFR.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...VFR.
MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY..3000 FT OR LOWER CEILINGS AND 5SM OR LOWER
VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
EASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
TODAY...AND BECOME LIGHTER AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. WINDS AND SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE JUST BELOW SCA LEVELS ON THE OCEAN WATERS EARLY THIS
MORNING...THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDE. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THIS
EVENING...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTH...THEN NORTHEAST BY LATE
TONIGHT. WINDS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. A NORTHEAST TO EAST
FLOW THEN DEVELOPS ON SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM NEW
ENGLAND. WITH FLOW UNDER 15 KT...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE WATERS THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE EAST COAST.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ONLY UP TO AROUND A TENTH OR TWO OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL EXPECTED
TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS MAY CREATE ISOLATED HIGHER
TOTALS. NO ADVERSE HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS EXPECTED. NO SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THE REST OF THE WEEKEND THROUGH AT LEAST
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/24
NEAR TERM...JC/24
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...SEARS
MARINE...JC/24
HYDROLOGY...JC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
748 AM EDT FRI MAR 16 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE TRI STATE AREA TODAY AND PASSES
THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OFF THE EAST COAST
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON
MONDAY...OTHERWISE DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MINOR UPDATES TO THE GRIDS THIS MORNING. HAVE TRIED TO TIME
SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND CT EARLY...THEN ADDITIONAL
BATCH THAT WAS IN CENTRAL/EASTERN PA AT 11Z. 08Z HRRR SHOWS THEM
WEAKENING AS THEY PROGRESS EAST WHICH MAY OCCUR WITH RELATIVELY
DRY AIR IN THE 950-800MB LAYER...BUT WITH A WEAK MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT IN VCNTY...CHC POPS CONTINUE
ALTHOUGH RAINFALL WILL BE PRIMARILY LIGHT OR IN THE FORM OF
DRIZZLE.
OTHERWISE...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE MID ATLANTIC AND
BACK NORTHWARD THROUGH PA TOWARD A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. ANOTHER WEAK LOW ALONG THE BOUNDARY...SITUATED OFF
THE DELMARVA WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST...HELPING MAINTAIN ON ONSHORE
FLOW OVER THE CWA. THIS...COUPLED WITH A LACK OF A SIGNIFICANT LOW
LEVEL JET AND ONLY WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST OUT OF THE GREAT
LAKES SHOULD PREVENT ANY WARM FRONT PASSAGE FROM OCCURRING
TODAY...KEEPING US IN A MARITIME POLAR AIRMASS THROUGH THE DAY.
A STRONGER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE THEN APPROACHES IN THE
AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL HELP A COLD FRONT ADVANCE EAST TOWARDS
US...AND PERHAPS ALSO WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH PASSING THROUGH BY
LATE AFTERNOON. THETA-E RIDGE AND PWATS WILL INCREASE...AND THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A WEAK UPPER JET STREAK SHIFTS OUR WAY.
LOW VALUES OF MUCAPE AND SHOWALTER INDICES APPROACHING ZERO POINT
TO A LITTLE ELEVATED CONVECTION POSSIBLY REACHING PERHAPS AS FAR
EAST AS THE CITY. SHOWERS THAT OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON ARE
THEREFORE EXPECTED TO HAVE HEAVIER RAINFALL INTENSITIES VS. THE
MORNING HOURS. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP ISOLATED THUNDER MAINLY WEST
OF THE HUDSON. IN GENERAL...HIGH CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY POPS FOR THE
CWA. BLEND OF MAV/NAM MOS LOOKED GOOD FOR THE MOST PART FOR HIGHS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH DURING THE EVENING...BUT MODELS
SHOWING PLENTY OF DRYING ALOFT BY THE TIME IT MAKES IT THROUGH...SO
LIKELY A DRY PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...AND RAIN CHANCES WILL BE MAINLY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE EXITING PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE EARLY
IN THE EVENING.
MODELS SHOWING SOME MOISTURE GETTING TRAPPED BELOW A STRENGTHENING
LOW LEVEL INVERSION...THEN SCOURING OUT SOMEWHAT IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAVE THEREFORE GONE WITH A MOSTLY CLOUDY FORECAST FOR THE AT LEAST
THE FIRST HALF OF THE MORNING MORNING...THEN TURNING PARTLY SUNNY.
AND WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW...LEANED MORE TOWARDS THE COOLER NAM MOS
FOR HIGHS ON SATURDAY. THESE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FULL LATITUDE UPPER TROUGH ENCOMPASSING WESTERN NOAM AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY MOVING INLAND AND IS FORECASTED TO CUTOFF
OVER THE SOUTHWEST ON TUE. MEANWHILE A HIGHLY ANOMALOUS RIDGE WILL
DOMINATE THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
CONTINUATION OF A DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA.
H5 HEIGHTS MAY COME CLOSE TO 580DM OVER THE NORTHEAST BY WED. DUE TO
LIMITED MARCH SUN ANGLE THIS WOULD TRANSLATE INTO 70S ACROSS
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA. HAVE GONE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
GUIDANCE HERE...BUT HIGH TEMPS CLOSER TO THE COAST ARE TRICKIER WITH
A SLY FLOW EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. THE OTHER CAVEAT IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR STRATUS AT NIGHT. WE ALREADY WILL HAVE A WELL ESTABLISHED SLY
FLOW IN PLACE FROM SUN NIGHT ON AND DEWPOINTS OVER THE WATER ARE
FORECASTED TO BE ABOVE SFC WATER TEMPS SO THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRATUS INCREASES EACH NIGHT. LOW CLOUDS ARE TRICKY AND AREAL
EXTENT IS DIFFICULT TO PREDICT SO DO NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO
PUT THEM IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME...BUT FOG/STRATUS SEASON IS
HERE. IF THESE CLOUDS DO OCCUR...HIGH TEMPS BECOME DIFFICULT DUE
TO TIMING OF STRATUS BURNING OFF. SCENARIO DEPICTS THAT OF STRATUS
REMAINING OFFSHORE DURING THE DAY AND PUSHING BACK IN DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WITH COOLING. SOME PLACES LIKE EASTERN LI/CT
MAY NOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE SOME DAYS BEFORE THE
CLOUDS ROLL BACK IN.
SEA BREEZES WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE COAST MUCH OF THE WEEK...BUT
AGAIN WILL DEPEND ON HEATING. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF LATER
GUIDANCE COMES IN WITH UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 ACROSS SOME INTERIOR
LOCATIONS.
AS FOR PRECIP...OTHER THAN AN UPPER DISTURBANCE APPROACHING WESTERN
ZONES LATE SUN NIGHT/MON IT WILL REMAIN DRY. EC BRINGS THE
SHORTWAVE DIRECTLY OVER THE LOCAL AREA AND IS MORE ROBUST WITH
PRECIP AMOUNTS...HOWEVER HAVE CHOSEN TO STICK CLOSER TO THE NAM/GFS
WHICH TRACKS THE MORE ROBUST SHORTWAVE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST WITH A WEAKER VORT APPROACHING US FROM THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION WITH MUCH LIGHTER QPF.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY...AS AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS SOUTH...THEN SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND. A
WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY EVENING.
PRIMARILY IFR CEILINGS...WITH OCCASIONAL CEILINGS LIFTING TO 1000-3000FT
THROUGH MID MORNING...EXCEPT PRIMARILY CEILINGS 1000-2000 FT
KBDR/KISP/KGON. CEILINGS LIKELY LIFT TO 1000-3000 FT THROUGHOUT
FROM BY MID MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS PROBABLE STARTING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR 4-6SM
VISIBILITIES OVERNIGHT WITH IFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE...WITH THE
BEST CHANCE AT KJFK/KHPN/KISP/KBDR/KSWF.
SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY...WITH BEST CHANCE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN THERE OCCURRENCE AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION TO
REFLECT IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. FOR NOW APPEARS BEST POTENTIAL FOR
ANY THUNDER WILL BE TO THE N AND W OF THE REGION...WITH POTENTIAL
OVER THE REGION VERY LOW...HOWEVER ELEVATED CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO E-ESE WINDS 5-10KT THIS MORNING...BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGHOUT BY EARLY AFTERNOON...AND REMAINING
SO WELL THROUGH TONIGHT.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN
END TIME OF IFR AND SOME POTENTIAL FOR VARIABILITY IN CONDITIONS.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN
END TIME OF IFR AND SOME POTENTIAL FOR VARIABILITY IN CONDITIONS.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN
END TIME OF IFR AND SOME POTENTIAL FOR VARIABILITY IN CONDITIONS.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN
END TIME OF IFR AND SOME POTENTIAL FOR VARIABILITY IN CONDITIONS.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN
END TIME OF IFR AND SOME POTENTIAL FOR VARIABILITY IN CONDITIONS.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE DUE TO SOME POTENTIAL
FOR VARIABILITY IN CONDITIONS.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.SATURDAY...POSSIBLE IFR/NEAR IFR CONDITIONS EARLY...THEN VFR.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...VFR.
MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY..3000 FT OR LOWER CEILINGS AND 5SM OR LOWER
VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
EASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
TODAY...AND BECOME LIGHTER AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. WINDS AND SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE JUST BELOW SCA LEVELS ON THE OCEAN WATERS EARLY THIS
MORNING...THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDE. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THIS
EVENING...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTH...THEN NORTHEAST BY LATE
TONIGHT. WINDS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. A NORTHEAST TO EAST
FLOW THEN DEVELOPS ON SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM NEW
ENGLAND. WITH FLOW UNDER 15 KT...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE WATERS THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE EAST COAST.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ONLY UP TO AROUND A TENTH OR TWO OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL EXPECTED
TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS MAY CREATE ISOLATED HIGHER
TOTALS. NO ADVERSE HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS EXPECTED. NO SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THE REST OF THE WEEKEND THROUGH AT LEAST
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/24
NEAR TERM...JC/24
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...MALOIT
MARINE...JC/24
HYDROLOGY...JC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
941 AM EDT FRI MAR 16 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WARM FRONT WAS PUSHING SCATTERED RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING. LOW PRESSURE
WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON, PASSING SOUTH
OF THE AREA. A MASSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR WILL
BUILD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY, THEN SETTLE TO OUR SOUTHEAST
SUNDAY. A WEAKENING DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WILL BRING CLOUDS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE
EASTERN SEABOARD, BRINGING SUNNY SKIES AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
935 AM...GIVEN MESONET TEMPERATURES AND RADAR TRENDS I DECIDED TO
EXTEND THE PRESENT ADVISORY UNTIL 16Z FOR THE CURRENT ADVISORY
AREA. OTHERWISE...GIVEN FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND UPSTREAM ACTIVITY
ON RADAR MOSAIC HAVE INCLUDED THUNDER IN THE GRIDS FOR LATER
TODAY. 1ST PERIOD GRIDS WERE LARGELY ADJUSTED BASED ON MESONET AND
RADAR TRENDS. HAV A GUD DAY.
PREV DISC...
WILL CONTINUE THE FRZG RAIN ADVISORIES FOR WRN..CNTRL AND ERN INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF MAINE THRU MID MRNG. WITH THE WAA PATTERN SPRDG ACRS THE
REGION RADAR SHOWS LGT STRATIFORM RN SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA FM
W-E. TEMPS BLO FREEZING OVER MOST OF WRN/CNTRL AND ERN INTERIOR
MAINE THIS MORNING SO SOME LGT FRZG RAIN TO CAUSE SOME PROBLEMS
EARLY THIS MORNING. TEMPS OVER MANY OF THE ADVSRY AREAS A FEW DEGS
BLO THE 32 DEG MARK. ELSEWHERE IN NH AND SRN AND CSTL ME TEMPS
NOW ABV FREEZING AND SLOWLY WARMING. THE FIRST BATCH OF LGT PCPN
MOVES THRU ERLY THIS MRNG AS PER HRRR SUGGESTS AND THEN ANOTHER
BATCH LATER IN THE MRNG AND ERLY AFTN BUT BY THEN ALL SFC TEMPS TO
BE WELL ABV FRZG. USED A BLEND OF THE MAV/MET GUID.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
LIGHT RAIN COMES TO AN END BY ERLY EVNG FOLLOWED BY CLEARING AS
HIGH PRES GRDLY BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE SUNNY
AND WARMER AS H85 TEMPS DURING THE AFTN REACH +6 TO +8C. HIGH PRES
CRESTS AND BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE AREA SO WINDS WILL BE NIL.
WITH TEMPS REACHING INTO THE 60S...AN AFTN SEA BREEZE CAN BE
EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST. STAYED CLOSE WITH GUID FOR MAX TEMPS WITH
A BIAS TO THE MAV.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS RIDGING BUILDS
OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD. MODEL GUIDANCE IS EXCESSIVELY COOL ON MIN
TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SLIGHTLY TOO COOL ON MAX
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE AFTER
COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING NWS OFFICES.
A WEAKENING DISTURBANCE TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ON
MONDAY...BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THAN SUNDAY
AND SOME MORE CLOUDS. ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY THE RIDGE STRONGLY
RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF WITH TEMPERATURES TOUCHING THE LOWER 70S IN
INTERIOR SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW HAMPSHIRE AND INTERIOR
SOUTHWESTERN MAINE. THIS IS SOME 25F ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. MODEL CONSISTENCY BREAKS DOWN A BIT FOR THURSDAY AS THE
WESTERLIES BEGIN TO SAG TOWARD NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...BREAKING
DOWN THE RIDGE AND THE PERIOD OF ABNORMALLY WARM WEATHER.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MVFR TO IFR CONDS TODAY IN LIGHT RAIN...DURING THE
ERLY MRNG HRS SOME FRZG RN EXPECTED OVER MOST CENTRAL AND WRN
AREAS OF MAINE AND NRN NH. BY TNGT CONDS IMPROVE TO VFR FM NW-SE.
LONG TERM...EXTENDED PERIOD OF VFR EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...HIGH PRES SETTLES OVER THE WATERS WITH VERY LITTLE PRES
GRADIENT SO WINDS/SEAS TO BE MINIMAL THRU SATURDAY. NO FLAGS.
LONG TERM...WINDS AND WAVES EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR MEZ008-009-013-
014-020>022.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
ES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
726 AM EDT FRI MAR 16 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WARM FRONT WAS PUSHING SCATTERED RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY THIS MORNING. LOW
PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES LATER TODAY...PASSING SOUTH
OF THE AREA. A MASSIVE DRY AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY...SETTLING TO OUR SOUTHEAST SUNDAY.
A WEAKENING DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL
BRING CLOUDS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY. THEN HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...BRINGING SUNNY SKIES AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
WILL CONTINUE THE FRZG RAIN ADVISORIES FOR WRN..CNTRL AND ERN INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF MAINE THRU MID MRNG. WITH THE WAA PATTERN SPRDG ACRS THE
REGION RADAR SHOWS LGT STRATIFORM RN SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA FM
W-E. TEMPS BLO FREEZING OVER MOST OF WRN/CNTRL AND ERN INTERIOR
MAINE THIS MORNING SO SOME LGT FRZG RAIN TO CAUSE SOME PROBLEMS
EARLY THIS MORNING. TEMPS OVER MANY OF THE ADVSRY AREAS A FEW DEGS
BLO THE 32 DEG MARK. ELSEWHERE IN NH AND SRN AND CSTL ME TEMPS
NOW ABV FREEZING AND SLOWLY WARMING. THE FIRST BATCH OF LGT PCPN
MOVES THRU ERLY THIS MRNG AS PER HRRR SUGGESTS AND THEN ANOTHER
BATCH LATER IN THE MRNG AND ERLY AFTN BUT BY THEN ALL SFC TEMPS TO
BE WELL ABV FRZG. USED A BLEND OF THE MAV/MET GUID.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
LIGHT RAIN COMES TO AN END BY ERLY EVNG FOLLOWED BY CLEARING AS
HIGH PRES GRDLY BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE SUNNY
AND WARMER AS H85 TEMPS DURING THE AFTN REACH +6 TO +8C. HIGH PRES
CRESTS AND BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE AREA SO WINDS WILL BE NIL.
WITH TEMPS REACHING INTO THE 60S...AN AFTN SEABREEZE CAN BE
EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST. STAYED CLOSE WITH GUID FOR MAX TEMPS WITH
A BIAS TO THE MAV.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS RIDGING BUILDS
OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD. MODEL GUIDANCE IS EXCESSIVELY COOL ON MIN
TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SLIGHTLY TOO COOL ON MAX
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE AFTER
COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING NWS OFFICES.
A WEAKENING DISTURBANCE TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ON
MONDAY...BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THAN SUNDAY
AND SOME MORE CLOUDS. ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY THE RIDGE STRONGLY
RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF WITH TEMPERATURES TOUCHING THE LOWER 70S IN
INTERIOR SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW HAMPSHIRE AND INTERIOR
SOUTHWESTERN MAINE. THIS IS SOME 25F ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. MODEL CONSISTENCY BREAKS DOWN A BIT FOR THURSDAY AS THE
WESTERLIES BEGIN TO SAG TOWARD NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...BREAKING
DOWN THE RIDGE AND THE PERIOD OF ABNORMALLY WARM WEATHER.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MVFR TO IFR CONDS TODAY IN LIGHT RAIN...DURING THE
ERLY MRNG HRS SOME FRZG RN EXPECTED OVER MOST CENTRAL AND WRN
AREAS OF MAINE AND NRN NH. BY TNGT CONDS IMPROVE TO VFR FM NW-SE.
LONG TERM...EXTENDED PERIOD OF VFR EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...HIGH PRES SETTLES OVER THE WATERS WITH VERY LITTLE PRES
GRADIENT SO WINDS/SEAS TO BE MINIMAL THRU SATURDAY. NO FLAGS.
LONG TERM...WINDS AND WAVES EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MEZ008-
009-013-014-020>022.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ST LOUIS MO
904 AM CDT FRI MAR 16 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 902 AM CDT FRI MAR 16 2012
N-S BAND OF CONVECTION JUST EAST OF STL APPARENTLY BEING FUELED BY
WEAK WAA/MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AROUND 850MB. RUC INDICATES THAT
THIS SHOULD WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
THE PRECIP TO GRADUALLY WIND DOWN. FORECAST UPDATED WITH THIS
THINKING.
TRUETT
&&
.SHORT TERM...
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT FRI MAR 16 2012
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
MAIN CONCERN DEALS WITH RAIN CHANCES THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE SHOWN A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN
AREAL EXTENT AND INTENSITY IN THE PAST TWO HOURS. MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE VORTEX HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST WHICH IS LIKELY
CAUSING SOME WEAK SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE. NEW CONVECTION IS NOW
PROPAGATING SOUTHWESTWARD OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI WHERE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY IS INTERSECTING THE LOW LEVEL JET. CONWAY PROFILER HAS
SHOWN SOME VEERING OF THE 850MB WIND WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO
SHIFT THE FOCUS OF NEW CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
CWA THE REST OF THE MORNING.
CONFIDENCE IN THE CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION TODAY AND TONIGHT IS NOT
HIGH AS FORCING WILL BE RATHER NEBULOUS. UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WITH TIME AND DO NOT SEE ANY VORT LOBES OR OTHER
FORCING THAT STANDS OUT DURING THE PERIOD. THE GFS AND LOCAL WRF
DOES SHOW THAT MLCAPES WILL CLIMB BACK INTO THE 1000-2000 J/KG
RANGE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MINIMAL CINH. COULD SEE ISOLD OR SCT
THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY ONCE THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES MORE
UNSTABLE. FOCUS MAY OCCUR ON ANY RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES OVER
THE AREA. WHILE EXTENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY NOT BE AS GREAT
AS YESTERDAY...THERE MAY STILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED HAIL
PRODUCING STORMS GIVEN THE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE
7-8C/KM RANGE.
ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO THINK WE ARE ALREADY IN MAY OR JUNE GIVEN
THAT THE CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 50-LOWER 60S. SEE
NO REASON THAT TEMPERATURES WON`T BE ABLE TO GET BACK INTO THE
LOWER 80S AGAIN TODAY GIVEN THE WARM START AND PARTIAL SUNSHINE
LATER TODAY.
BRITT
&&
.LONG TERM...
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT FRI MAR 16 2012
(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
BOTH THE GFS/LOCAL WRF ARE SHOWING THAT THERE WILL BE INCREASED
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE COINCIDENT WITH WEAK ASCENT CAUSED
BY A WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT WILL MOVE OVER THAT AREA ON SATURDAY. WILL
MAINTAIN THE HIGH CHANCE POPS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING. HERE
AGAIN THINK THAT ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
BECAUSE OF THE STEEP LAPSE RATES. SUNDAY THEN LOOKS DRY AS
SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT AND BEST LOW LEVEL FORCING SHIFTS WEST OVER
THE PLAINS. SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS FAVOR GOING AT OR
ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT UPPER FLOW WILL AMPLIFY
SIGNIFICANTLY NEXT WEEK AND THAT MO/IL WILL LIE BETWEEN A
RETREATING UPPER RIDGE AND DEEPENING TROUGH THAT WILL EVENTUALLY
ENTER THE GREAT PLAINS. THERE IS ENOUGH AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE
GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN GEM TO GO WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DURING MID
WEEK. TEMPERATURES SHOWING A COOLING TREND WITH THE RAIN AND A
COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE WEST...BUT EVEN THESE TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.
BRITT
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 534 AM CDT FRI MAR 16 2012
MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED WELL S OF THE TAF SITES
EARLY THIS MRNG WITH JUST ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS OVER OUR AREA.
HIGH LEVEL CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEBRIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO THIN OUT.
DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS MRNG INTO THE AFTN
AS THE MOIST ATMOSPHERE BECOMES MORE UNSTABLE WITH DAYTIME
HEATING. UNCERTAINTY WITH THE AMOUNT OF COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY BUT IT SHOULD BE LESS THAN YESTERDAY. MAY INCLUDE CB IN THE
CLOUD GROUPS IN THE TAFS THIS AFTN...PARTICULARLY THE STL AREA
TAFS. IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST COVERAGE WILL BE S OF THE TAF
SITES WITH THE STL AREA HAVING THE BEST CHANCE OF STORMS THIS AFTN
COMPARED WITH THE REST OF THE TAF LOCATIONS. SLY SFC WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORCAST PERIOD.
SPECIFICS FOR KSTL...MAY NEED TO INCLUDE VCSH OR VCTS DURING THE
INITIAL COUPLE OF HOURS OF THE STL TAF AS THE RADAR WAS DETECTING
ISOLATED SHOWERS JUST E OF STL. DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL
DEVELOP THIS MRNG...BECOMING BKN EARLY THIS AFTN AROUND 4000-5000
FT. WILL CONTINUE CB IN THE CLOUD GROUP FOR THIS AFTN WITH AT
LEAST WIDELY SCATTERED AFTN STORMS EXPECTED. S-SW WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 9 KTS THIS AFTN...THEN DIMINISH TGT FROM A
S-SELY DIRECTION.
GKS
&&
.CLIMATE...
HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH MAXIMUM AND HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
FOR KSTL AND KCOU FOR TODAY (03/16).
KSTL
DAY DATE HI MAX YEAR HI MIN YEAR
FRI 03/16 86F 1945 57F 1919
KCOU
DAY DATE HI MAX YEAR HI MIN YEAR
FRI 03/16 87F 1945 55F 1945
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1054 AM CDT FRI MAR 16 2012
.UPDATE...
VISIBILITIES HAVE IMPROVED ACROSS THE AREA...THEREFORE THE DENSE
FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 729 AM CDT FRI MAR 16 2012/
UPDATE...AFTER WATCHING SEVERAL MORE AUTOMATED SITES CRASH TO 1/4
MILE OR LOWER VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WITHIN THE LAST 60-90
MINUTES...OPTED TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR ALL BUT THE FAR
NORTHERN CWA. ALTHOUGH THIS FOG IS RATHER SHALLOW IN NATURE...IT
IS CREATING CONSIDERABLE VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AT THE BUSY
MORNING COMMUTE TIME. THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE CWA IS LIKELY
NOT EXPERIENCING AS MUCH DENSE FOG...BUT WASN/T GOING TO GET TOO
CUTE AND TAKE ANY CHANCES LEAVING THESE COUNTIES OUT. BASED ON
LATEST HRRR VISIBILITY PROGS...DENSE FOG COULD BE QUITE STUBBORN
TO MIX OUT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA...ALTHOUGH FEEL THAT 16Z EXPIRATION OF HEADLINE SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT.
AVIATION...12Z KGRI TAF. THIS WILL BE A CHALLENGING 24 HOURS WITH
REGARD TO CEILING/VISIBILITY TRENDS. STARTING OUT RIGHT AWAY THIS
MORNING...SHALLOW DENSE FOG HAS SETTLED INTO THE AREA...AND COULD
LAST FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS BEFORE MIXING OUT TO VFR
VISIBILITY/CEILING BY LATE MORNING. THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS SHOULD REMAIN QUIET WITH A STEADY SOUTH BREEZE AROUND 12KT.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE DECREASES AGAIN DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS OR SO
OF THE PERIOD LATE TONIGHT...WITH VARIOUS MODELS SUGGESTING
ANOTHER ROUND OF POTENTIALLY DENSE FOG AND STRATUS. WITH BETTER
MIXING THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER DUE TO STEADY BUT LIGHT SOUTH
BREEZES...AM THINKING THAT STRATUS IS A MORE LIKELY BET THAN
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG. FOR NOW...HAVE STARTED THE TREND WITH AN
MVFR VSBY RESTRICTION AND AN IFR CEILING...BUT THIS LAST 6 HOURS IS
VERY SUBJECT TO CHANGE.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 431 AM CDT FRI MAR 16 2012/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE BIG STORY WILL
CENTER AROUND THE NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON AND
THEN THE CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY EVENING
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
TODAY...UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND THE UPPER JET STREAM WELL TO OUR NORTH. THE RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURE FOR TODAY IS 80 DEGREES IN GRAND ISLAND AND
KEARNEY...AND 79 DEGREES IN HASTINGS. WE WILL COME VERY CLOSE TO
BREAKING THESE RECORD HIGHS BY THIS AFTERNOON. SOME AREAS WILL
START OFF WITH FOG THIS MORNING...BUT THIS SHOULD QUICKLY SCATTER
OUT WITHIN A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE.
SATURDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE JUST AS WARM AS TODAY.
HOWEVER...THE RECORD HIGHS FOR SATURDAY ARE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER...WHICH WILL MAKE BREAKING THEM A LITTLE HARDER. THE RECORD
HIGH ON SATURDAY IS 83 DEGREES IN KEARNEY AND HASTINGS...BUT ONLY
81 DEGREES IN GRAND ISLAND. THESE RECORDS COULD AGAIN BE
THREATENED ESPECIALLY IN GRAND ISLAND. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE ON SATURDAY AND WILL BE A BIT GUSTY BY AFTERNOON. THE DRY
LINE WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS OUR WESTERN CWA ON SATURDAY BUT THERE
WILL NOT BE ENOUGH FORCING GIVEN THE RATHER STRONG CAP.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IF THE DRY LINE
DOES CREEP INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES. SEVERAL COUNTIES SUCH AS
DAWSON...GOSPER...AND FURNAS COULD BE ON THE VERGE OF MEETING RED
FLAG WARNING CRITERIA SATURDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD THE DRY LINE SLIP
FAR ENOUGH EAST AND DEW POINTS PLUMMET.
SUNDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS DEEP INTO THE ROCKIES AND
SOUTH WINDS BECOME EVEN MORE GUSTY OVER THE PLAINS OUT AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
AREA ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN CLIMB INTO THE UPPER
70S TO AROUND 80 BUT THE RECORDS FOR THIS DAY ARE IN THE MID 80S
AND SHOULD NOT BE TOO CLOSELY THREATENED. THE MAIN CONCERN ON
SUNDAY WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE
HIGH PLAINS BY LATE AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR SOME COOLING ALOFT.
HOWEVER...THE QUESTION IS WILL THE FORCING AND HEIGHT FALLS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MAKE IT FAR ENOUGH EAST TO GET US
CONVECTION BEFORE SUNSET ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND KANSAS.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT CONVECTION WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY AFTER
SUNSET AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THEREFORE...WILL ONLY BE
GOING WITH A RATHER WEAK SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON HOURS AND THEN A MODEST CHANCE OF STORMS
SUNDAY NIGHT. IF STORMS CAN FORM LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR SUNDAY NIGHT
THEY CERTAINLY COULD BECOME SEVERE GIVEN THE STRONG WIND SHEAR AND
WEAK TO MODEST INSTABILITY.
LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. BY FAR THE MAIN FOCUS OF THIS
FOUR DAYS IS THE EVOLUTION OF THE EXPANSIVE...DEEP UPPER TROUGH
TRANSLATING SLOWLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS...AND WHETHER ANY
CONVECTION IN THE MONDAY TIME FRAME MIGHT BE STRONG TO SEVERE.
STARTING OFF WITH MONDAY...LATEST 00Z RUNS OF THE ECMWF/GFS ARE IN
PRETTY DECENT AGREEMENT WITH LARGE SCALE FEATURES...WITH A NEUTRAL
TO SLIGHTLY NEGATIVELY TILTED 500MB VORT MAX CHARGING INTO WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE DAY...ON THE FRONT SIDE OF
THE PRIMARY TROUGH AXIS STRETCHED FROM MT TO NM. OBVIOUSLY FORCING
FOR ASCENT WILL BE CONSIDERABLE WITH A NEARLY MERIDIONAL 120+KT
300MB JET STREAK ALIGNED DIRECTLY OVER THE CWA IN THE AFTERNOON
HOURS PER THE ECMWF. IN GENERAL...THE EVOLVING THEME OVER LAST FEW
MODEL RUNS HAS BEEN FOR A FASTER PROGRESSION TO THE SURFACE
DRYLINE...WITH ECMWF/GFS GENERALLY AGREEING...FOR NOW ANYWAY...THAT
THE DRYLINE WILL RAPIDLY SURGE ACROSS THE CWA FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS/EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE A PRETTY GOOD BET DURING THE
DAY...WITH LIKELY POPS STILL FOCUSED ACROSS ROUGHLY THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE CWA...NOT NECESSARILY SURE HOW MUCH OF A STRONG/SEVERE STORM
THREAT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...AS STREAM OF EARLIER CONVECTION MOVING
IN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH COULD RESULT IN CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER AND
POOR LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM 00Z
GFS ARE FAIRLY SATURATED THROUGH A DEEP LAYER WITH MINIMAL CAPE.
OTHER ISSUES FOR MONDAY INCLUDE CONTINUED STRONG SOUTH TO
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS AS THE DRYLINE APPROACHES AND PASSES...WHICH
COULD EASILY APPROACH OR REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA DEPENDING ON THE
STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE GRADIENT. FINALLY...IF THE DRYLINE SURGES
THROUGH AS FAST AS CURRENTLY ADVERTISED...AND IF FORECAST HIGH TEMPS
AROUND 70 ARE REALIZED...THEN FIRE WEATHER ISSUES COULD CROP UP
DURING THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT MIGHT MANAGE TO
AVOID WIDESPREAD RAINFALL UP TO THAT POINT. FOR NOW...ALLBLEND
CONSENSUS DEWPOINTS IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ARE CONSIDERABLY
HIGHER THAN THOSE PRESENTED BY THE 00Z ECMWF/GFS RUNS...AND KEEP
MINIMUM RH VALUES SAFELY ABOVE 20 PERCENT...BUT JUST NOT SURE THIS
WILL LAST OVER NEXT SEVERAL FORECAST ISSUANCES IF THESE PROGRESSIVE
TRENDS HOLD.
FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...KEPT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD POPS ACROSS
CWA FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT LOWERED TO ONLY THE 20-40 PERCENT
RANGE AS LATEST MODEL RUNS ACTUALLY WOULD SUGGEST THIS 24-HOUR
PERIOD COULD NOW REMAIN DOWNRIGHT DRY IN THE WAKE OF THE INITIAL
VORT MAX AND SURFACE DRYLINE. BOTTOM LINE HERE IS...THESE POPS ARE
REALLY STARTING TO COME INTO QUESTION...AND MAY ULTIMATELY BE
PULLED FROM FORECAST ALTOGETHER IF TRENDS HOLD. KEPT HIGH TEMPS
TUESDAY RIGHT AROUND 60 DEGREES. FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...KEPT IT
DRY...ALTHOUGH MODELS SUGGEST SOME SHOWERS COULD FLIRT WITH THE
SOUTHEAST CWA.
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...UNCERTAINTY REALLY GROWS IN THE
FORECAST...AS MODELS DIVERGE ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE PARENT
MID/UPPER TROUGH AS IT STARTS TO STALL OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CORRIDOR OF THE NATION AND CUT OFF. WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS MOST IF
NOT ALL PRECIP EAST OF THE CWA...THE GFS AND ITS 00Z ENSEMBLE MEAN
WRAPS UP A STRONGER CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH
VORT ENERGY WRAPPING AROUND THIS EXPANSIVE LOW GENERATING
CONSIDERABLE RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY WITHIN THE REGION. ALTHOUGH NOT
NECESSARILY SURE THEY ARE WARRANTED AT THIS POINT...LOADED ALLBLEND
MODEL CONSENSUS POPS PRETTY MUCH AS-IS...WITH 20-30 PERCENT CHANCES
FOR RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
ALTHOUGH ISOLATED THUNDER PROBABLY CANNOT BE RULED OUT...INSTABILITY
IN THIS PATTERN SHOULD BE FAIRLY MINIMAL...AND NOT WORTH A THUNDER
MENTION AT THIS TIME RANGE. TEMP WISE...KEPT HIGHS RIGHT AROUND OR
JUST BELOW 60 BOTH WED AND THURS...WHICH IS STILL AT LEAST A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE MARCH.
AVIATION...06Z KGRI TAF. PRIMARY ISSUE INVOLVES POTENTIAL FOG/LOW
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT DURING THE FIRST 9 HOURS OR SO OF THE PERIOD.
THE NIGHT IS STARTING OUT WITH VERY LIGHT/VARIABLE BREEZES AND
HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER RELATIVE HUMIDITY NOW THAT DEWPOINTS HAVE
INCREASED CONSIDERABLY OVER 24 HOURS AGO. THE OBVIOUS IMPLICATION
IS THAT AT LEAST MVFR VISIBILITY COULD TAKE HOLD AT ANY TIME.
ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE NOT UNANIMOUS ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF DENSE FOG
EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH THE BEST FOCUS APPEARING TO RESIDE 20-50
MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE TERMINAL...WILL CONTINUE THEME FROM
PREVIOUS FEW TAF ISSUANCES WITH LIFR CEILING/VISIBILITY IN A
TEMPO GROUP CENTERED AROUND SUNRISE. AGAIN THOUGH...DENSE FOG WITH
VSBY 1/4SM OR LESS IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. ASSUMING FOG DOES
ULTIMATELY SET IN...ANTICIPATE A FAIRLY STEADY BURN-OFF DURING THE
MORNING...AS SOUTHERLY BREEZES START PICKING UP A BIT. HAVE AIMED
FOR A 15Z RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS...WITH ONLY FEW/SCATTERED FAIR
WEATHER CUMULUS ANTICIPATED DURING THE BALANCE OF THE DAY. TOWARD
THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD SATURDAY EVENING...A STRENGTHENING LOW
LEVEL JET STREAM COULD PUSH LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IN THE LOWEST
2000 FT AGL CLOSE TO NEEDING A FORMAL MENTION...BUT WILL HOLD OFF
FOR NOW.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
729 AM CDT FRI MAR 16 2012
.UPDATE...AFTER WATCHING SEVERAL MORE AUTOMATED SITES CRASH TO 1/4
MILE OR LOWER VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WITHIN THE LAST 60-90
MINUTES...OPTED TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR ALL BUT THE FAR
NORTHERN CWA. ALTHOUGH THIS FOG IS RATHER SHALLOW IN NATURE...IT
IS CREATING CONSIDERABLE VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AT THE BUSY
MORNING COMMUTE TIME. THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE CWA IS LIKELY
NOT EXPERIENCING AS MUCH DENSE FOG...BUT WASN/T GOING TO GET TOO
CUTE AND TAKE ANY CHANCES LEAVING THESE COUNTIES OUT. BASED ON
LATEST HRRR VISIBILITY PROGS...DENSE FOG COULD BE QUITE STUBBORN
TO MIX OUT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA...ALTHOUGH FEEL THAT 16Z EXPIRATION OF HEADLINE SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT.
&&
.AVIATION...12Z KGRI TAF. THIS WILL BE A CHALLENGING 24 HOURS WITH
REGARD TO CEILING/VISIBILITY TRENDS. STARTING OUT RIGHT AWAY THIS
MORNING...SHALLOW DENSE FOG HAS SETTLED INTO THE AREA...AND COULD
LAST FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS BEFORE MIXING OUT TO VFR
VISIBILITY/CEILING BY LATE MORNING. THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS SHOULD REMAIN QUIET WITH A STEADY SOUTH BREEZE AROUND 12KT.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE DECREASES AGAIN DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS OR SO
OF THE PERIOD LATE TONIGHT...WITH VARIOUS MODELS SUGGESTING
ANOTHER ROUND OF POTENTIALLY DENSE FOG AND STRATUS. WITH BETTER
MIXING THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER DUE TO STEADY BUT LIGHT SOUTH
BREEZES...AM THINKING THAT STRATUS IS A MORE LIKELY BET THAN
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG. FOR NOW...HAVE STARTED THE TREND WITH AN
MVFR VSBY RESTRICTION AND AN IFR CEILING...BUT THIS LAST 6 HOURS IS
VERY SUBJECT TO CHANGE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 431 AM CDT FRI MAR 16 2012/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE BIG STORY WILL
CENTER AROUND THE NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON AND
THEN THE CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY EVENING
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
TODAY...UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND THE UPPER JET STREAM WELL TO OUR NORTH. THE RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURE FOR TODAY IS 80 DEGREES IN GRAND ISLAND AND
KEARNEY...AND 79 DEGREES IN HASTINGS. WE WILL COME VERY CLOSE TO
BREAKING THESE RECORD HIGHS BY THIS AFTERNOON. SOME AREAS WILL
START OFF WITH FOG THIS MORNING...BUT THIS SHOULD QUICKLY SCATTER
OUT WITHIN A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE.
SATURDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE JUST AS WARM AS TODAY.
HOWEVER...THE RECORD HIGHS FOR SATURDAY ARE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER...WHICH WILL MAKE BREAKING THEM A LITTLE HARDER. THE RECORD
HIGH ON SATURDAY IS 83 DEGREES IN KEARNEY AND HASTINGS...BUT ONLY
81 DEGREES IN GRAND ISLAND. THESE RECORDS COULD AGAIN BE
THREATENED ESPECIALLY IN GRAND ISLAND. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE ON SATURDAY AND WILL BE A BIT GUSTY BY AFTERNOON. THE DRY
LINE WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS OUR WESTERN CWA ON SATURDAY BUT THERE
WILL NOT BE ENOUGH FORCING GIVEN THE RATHER STRONG CAP.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IF THE DRY LINE
DOES CREEP INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES. SEVERAL COUNTIES SUCH AS
DAWSON...GOSPER...AND FURNAS COULD BE ON THE VERGE OF MEETING RED
FLAG WARNING CRITERIA SATURDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD THE DRY LINE SLIP
FAR ENOUGH EAST AND DEW POINTS PLUMMET.
SUNDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS DEEP INTO THE ROCKIES AND
SOUTH WINDS BECOME EVEN MORE GUSTY OVER THE PLAINS OUT AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
AREA ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN CLIMB INTO THE UPPER
70S TO AROUND 80 BUT THE RECORDS FOR THIS DAY ARE IN THE MID 80S
AND SHOULD NOT BE TOO CLOSELY THREATENED. THE MAIN CONCERN ON
SUNDAY WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE
HIGH PLAINS BY LATE AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR SOME COOLING ALOFT.
HOWEVER...THE QUESTION IS WILL THE FORCING AND HEIGHT FALLS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MAKE IT FAR ENOUGH EAST TO GET US
CONVECTION BEFORE SUNSET ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND KANSAS.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT CONVECTION WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY AFTER
SUNSET AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THEREFORE...WILL ONLY BE
GOING WITH A RATHER WEAK SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON HOURS AND THEN A MODEST CHANCE OF STORMS
SUNDAY NIGHT. IF STORMS CAN FORM LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR SUNDAY NIGHT
THEY CERTAINLY COULD BECOME SEVERE GIVEN THE STRONG WIND SHEAR AND
WEAK TO MODEST INSTABILITY.
LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. BY FAR THE MAIN FOCUS OF THIS
FOUR DAYS IS THE EVOLUTION OF THE EXPANSIVE...DEEP UPPER TROUGH
TRANSLATING SLOWLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS...AND WHETHER ANY
CONVECTION IN THE MONDAY TIME FRAME MIGHT BE STRONG TO SEVERE.
STARTING OFF WITH MONDAY...LATEST 00Z RUNS OF THE ECMWF/GFS ARE IN
PRETTY DECENT AGREEMENT WITH LARGE SCALE FEATURES...WITH A NEUTRAL
TO SLIGHTLY NEGATIVELY TILTED 500MB VORT MAX CHARGING INTO WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE DAY...ON THE FRONT SIDE OF
THE PRIMARY TROUGH AXIS STRETCHED FROM MT TO NM. OBVIOUSLY FORCING
FOR ASCENT WILL BE CONSIDERABLE WITH A NEARLY MERIDIONAL 120+KT
300MB JET STREAK ALIGNED DIRECTLY OVER THE CWA IN THE AFTERNOON
HOURS PER THE ECMWF. IN GENERAL...THE EVOLVING THEME OVER LAST FEW
MODEL RUNS HAS BEEN FOR A FASTER PROGRESSION TO THE SURFACE
DRYLINE...WITH ECMWF/GFS GENERALLY AGREEING...FOR NOW ANYWAY...THAT
THE DRYLINE WILL RAPIDLY SURGE ACROSS THE CWA FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS/EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE A PRETTY GOOD BET DURING THE
DAY...WITH LIKELY POPS STILL FOCUSED ACROSS ROUGHLY THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE CWA...NOT NECESSARILY SURE HOW MUCH OF A STRONG/SEVERE STORM
THREAT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...AS STREAM OF EARLIER CONVECTION MOVING
IN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH COULD RESULT IN CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER AND
POOR LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM 00Z
GFS ARE FAIRLY SATURATED THROUGH A DEEP LAYER WITH MINIMAL CAPE.
OTHER ISSUES FOR MONDAY INCLUDE CONTINUED STRONG SOUTH TO
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS AS THE DRYLINE APPROACHES AND PASSES...WHICH
COULD EASILY APPROACH OR REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA DEPENDING ON THE
STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE GRADIENT. FINALLY...IF THE DRYLINE SURGES
THROUGH AS FAST AS CURRENTLY ADVERTISED...AND IF FORECAST HIGH TEMPS
AROUND 70 ARE REALIZED...THEN FIRE WEATHER ISSUES COULD CROP UP
DURING THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT MIGHT MANAGE TO
AVOID WIDESPREAD RAINFALL UP TO THAT POINT. FOR NOW...ALLBLEND
CONSENSUS DEWPOINTS IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ARE CONSIDERABLY
HIGHER THAN THOSE PRESENTED BY THE 00Z ECMWF/GFS RUNS...AND KEEP
MINIMUM RH VALUES SAFELY ABOVE 20 PERCENT...BUT JUST NOT SURE THIS
WILL LAST OVER NEXT SEVERAL FORECAST ISSUANCES IF THESE PROGRESSIVE
TRENDS HOLD.
FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...KEPT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD POPS ACROSS
CWA FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT LOWERED TO ONLY THE 20-40 PERCENT
RANGE AS LATEST MODEL RUNS ACTUALLY WOULD SUGGEST THIS 24-HOUR
PERIOD COULD NOW REMAIN DOWNRIGHT DRY IN THE WAKE OF THE INITIAL
VORT MAX AND SURFACE DRYLINE. BOTTOM LINE HERE IS...THESE POPS ARE
REALLY STARTING TO COME INTO QUESTION...AND MAY ULTIMATELY BE
PULLED FROM FORECAST ALTOGETHER IF TRENDS HOLD. KEPT HIGH TEMPS
TUESDAY RIGHT AROUND 60 DEGREES. FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...KEPT IT
DRY...ALTHOUGH MODELS SUGGEST SOME SHOWERS COULD FLIRT WITH THE
SOUTHEAST CWA.
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...UNCERTAINTY REALLY GROWS IN THE
FORECAST...AS MODELS DIVERGE ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE PARENT
MID/UPPER TROUGH AS IT STARTS TO STALL OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CORRIDOR OF THE NATION AND CUT OFF. WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS MOST IF
NOT ALL PRECIP EAST OF THE CWA...THE GFS AND ITS 00Z ENSEMBLE MEAN
WRAPS UP A STRONGER CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH
VORT ENERGY WRAPPING AROUND THIS EXPANSIVE LOW GENERATING
CONSIDERABLE RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY WITHIN THE REGION. ALTHOUGH NOT
NECESSARILY SURE THEY ARE WARRANTED AT THIS POINT...LOADED ALLBLEND
MODEL CONSENSUS POPS PRETTY MUCH AS-IS...WITH 20-30 PERCENT CHANCES
FOR RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
ALTHOUGH ISOLATED THUNDER PROBABLY CANNOT BE RULED OUT...INSTABILITY
IN THIS PATTERN SHOULD BE FAIRLY MINIMAL...AND NOT WORTH A THUNDER
MENTION AT THIS TIME RANGE. TEMP WISE...KEPT HIGHS RIGHT AROUND OR
JUST BELOW 60 BOTH WED AND THURS...WHICH IS STILL AT LEAST A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE MARCH.
AVIATION...06Z KGRI TAF. PRIMARY ISSUE INVOLVES POTENTIAL FOG/LOW
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT DURING THE FIRST 9 HOURS OR SO OF THE PERIOD.
THE NIGHT IS STARTING OUT WITH VERY LIGHT/VARIABLE BREEZES AND
HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER RELATIVE HUMIDITY NOW THAT DEWPOINTS HAVE
INCREASED CONSIDERABLY OVER 24 HOURS AGO. THE OBVIOUS IMPLICATION
IS THAT AT LEAST MVFR VISIBILITY COULD TAKE HOLD AT ANY TIME.
ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE NOT UNANIMOUS ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF DENSE FOG
EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH THE BEST FOCUS APPEARING TO RESIDE 20-50
MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE TERMINAL...WILL CONTINUE THEME FROM
PREVIOUS FEW TAF ISSUANCES WITH LIFR CEILING/VISIBILITY IN A
TEMPO GROUP CENTERED AROUND SUNRISE. AGAIN THOUGH...DENSE FOG WITH
VSBY 1/4SM OR LESS IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. ASSUMING FOG DOES
ULTIMATELY SET IN...ANTICIPATE A FAIRLY STEADY BURN-OFF DURING THE
MORNING...AS SOUTHERLY BREEZES START PICKING UP A BIT. HAVE AIMED
FOR A 15Z RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS...WITH ONLY FEW/SCATTERED FAIR
WEATHER CUMULUS ANTICIPATED DURING THE BALANCE OF THE DAY. TOWARD
THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD SATURDAY EVENING...A STRENGTHENING LOW
LEVEL JET STREAM COULD PUSH LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IN THE LOWEST
2000 FT AGL CLOSE TO NEEDING A FORMAL MENTION...BUT WILL HOLD OFF
FOR NOW.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NEZ041-
046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.
KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KSZ005>007-
017>019.
&&
$$
UPDATE/AVIATION/LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
SHORT TERM...WESELY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
1033 AM EDT FRI MAR 16 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
THE COMBINATION OF POTENT ENERGY ALOFT AND A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL PRODUCE OCCASIONAL SHOWERS...ALONG WITH A RUMBLE OF THUNDER
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. A SLOW CLEARING TREND WILL DEVELOP
BY LATE TODAY...WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURNING BY THE
WEEKEND. A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE THE NORTH
COUNTRY WITH MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1018 AM EDT FRIDAY...COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY LATE THIS MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE ESE
ACROSS FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...RATHER
POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION.
LATEST RADAR SHOWING THAT SHOWERS ARE RATHER WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH MOST CONCENTRATED ACTIVITY OVER EASTERN NEW
YORK AND NORTHERN VERMONT IN ADVANCE OF AFOREMENTIONED FRONT.
HIGH PW`S OF AROUND 1 INCH SUPPORT BAND OF MODERATE SHOWERS NOW
MOVING ACROSS THIS AREA. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS DECREASING OVER
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. EXPECT COVERAGE TO
DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS REST OF FORECAST AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. HARD TO RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER...BUT HAVE NOT
INCLUDED ANY MENTION AT THIS TIME AS CHANCES ARE RATHER LOW. MAX
TEMP FORECASTS IN UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S STILL LOOKS TO BE ON
TRACK...ALTHOUGH HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMP/DEWPOINT/WIND
DATASETS TO REFLECT LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND EXPECTED CONDITIONS
OVER NEXT FEW HOURS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...
A HAVE UPDATED TO REMOVE MENTION OF THUNDER IN ZONES...AS BEST
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY HAS SHIFTED TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST. A LOCAL WEB
CAM HAD A NICE DISPLAY OF IN CLOUD LIGHTNING LAST NIGHT...PER
PICTURE RECEIVED BY OUR LOCAL MEDIA. OTHERWISE...BAND OF MODERATE
RAIN IS ENTERING THE CPV ATTM...AND WL BE INTO CENTRAL VT BY
14Z...AND THRU EASTERN VT BY 17Z TODAY. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WL RANGE BTWN 0.15 AND 0.30" ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE.
RADAR STORM TOTAL PRECIP ESTIMATES SHOW AMOUNTS APPROACHING 1.0"
ACRS THE SLV...WHERE NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED STORMS
OCCURRED OVERNIGHT. THIS RAINFALL HAS SHIFTED EAST AND IS
WEAKENING AS STABILITY INCREASES.
OTHERWISE...HIGH TEMP FCST WL BE CHALLENGING THIS AFTN WITH SOME
BREAKS EXPECTED...FEEL A LATE AFTN HIGH TEMP WL OCCUR. HIGHS WL
RANGE FROM THE L/M40S NEK/MTNS TO L/M50S SLV/CPV. AREAS OF PATCHY
FOG WL STILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACRS THE MTN VALLEYS AND HIR
TRRN THRU 15Z TODAY.
FCST CHALLENGE THRU TODAY WL BE TIMING OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDER...ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED TEMPS. WATER VAPOR SHOWS POTENT 5H
VORT ENTERING THE SLV ATTM...WITH PLENTY OF LIGHTNING ACTIVITY
ACRS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE SLV ATTM. THIS
SYSTEM...ALONG WITH GOOD 850 TO 500MB RH AND PWS VALUES
APPROACHING 1.0"...WHICH IS 200 TO 300% ABOVE NORMAL...WL PRODUCE
A BAND OF MODERATE TO LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL ACRS THE FA TODAY.
USING THE RUC13 AND NAM12 700 TO 500MB UVVS AND RH FIELDS...ALONG
WITH LATEST RADAR TRENDS...WOULD SUPPORT PRECIP BEING ACRS THE SLV
BTWN 06-09Z...DACKS FROM 09Z-12Z...CPV BTWN 12-15Z..AND INTO
EASTERN VT BY 18Z TODAY. GIVEN PLENTY OF LIGHTNING ACTIVITY
UPSTREAM AND SW VALUES BTWN -1 AND -2 TODAY...ALONG WITH SOME WEAK
ELEVATED CAPE VALUES WL CONT TO MENTION ISOLATED THUNDER CHCS THRU
21Z...BUT DECREASE CHCS FROM WEST TO EAST...AS INSTABILITY AXIS
SHIFTS EAST OF OUR CWA. GIVEN...STRONG SFC TO 800MB THETA E
CONVERGENCE AND AXIS OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WITH PWS NEAR
1.0"...WL MENTION POPS NEAR 100%...AS BAND OF MODERATE PRECIP
MOVES ACRS OUR CWA TODAY. AVERAGE QPF VALUES WL RANGE FROM 0.25 TO
0.75"...WITH SOME SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE STRONGER
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS...ESPECIALLY ACRS NNY. TEMPS TODAY WL BE
TRICKY...GIVEN CLOUDS/PRECIP...BUT SOME CLRING SHOULD DEVELOP ACRS
THE SLV/NORTHERN NY BY THIS AFTN. SOUNDINGS SHOW LIMITED MIXING
TODAY...BUT WITH SOME SUN THIS AFTN...FEEL SLV/CPV WL REACH THE
L50S...WITH MID 50S NEAR VSF...WHILE CENTRAL/EASTERN
VT...INCLUDING THE NEK STRUGGLE IN THE 40S. TONIGHT...1028MB HIGH
PRES BUILDS ACRS OUR CWA...WITH CLRING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
THESE CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH LEFTOVER BL MOISTURE FROM PREVIOUS
RAINFALL...WL RESULT IN AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING. NAM SOUNDINGS
SHOW PLENTY OF SFC TO 875MB...EVEN AT BTV...THEREFORE WL MENTION
SOME FOG IN FCST TONIGHT. LOWS WL RANGE FROM THE U20S SLK/MTNS/NEK
TO M/U30S WARMER/WIDER VALLEYS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT FRIDAY...
RECORD BREAKING TEMPS ANTICIPATED ON SUNDAY AND INTO
NEXT WEEK...
THE RECORD IN BTV ON SUNDAY MARCH 18TH IS 62 SET BACK IN 1945...AND
OUR FCST TEMP AT BTV FOR SUNDAY IS 74F. MEANWHILE...THE RECORD HIGH
AT MPV IS ONLY 58 SET BACK IN 1966...AND WE ARE FORECASTING A HIGH
TEMP OF 72F ON SUNDAY MARCH 18TH. SEE CLIMO SECTION BELOW FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.
MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS ACRS OUR CWA...WHILE SFC HIGH PRES SHIFTS
INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND BY 12Z SUNDAY. THE COMBINATION OF 2 TO 3
STD ABOVE NORMAL HGHT FIELDS AND 925MB TO 850MB TEMPS WL PRODUCE
RECORD BREAKING TEMPS ACRS OUR FA ON SUNDAY. PROGGED 925MB TEMPS
BTWN 12C AND 14C...SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE U60S MTNS TO M70S WARMER
VALLEYS ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...925MB TEMPS ON SATURDAY RANGE BTWN 8C
NEK TO 12C SLV...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE M/U50S NEK/MTNS TO M/U60S
WARMER VALLEYS LOCATIONS. TEMPS WL BE COOLER...MAINLY 50S TO NEAR
60F...ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKE CHAMPLAIN SHORELINE...DUE TO WATER
TEMPS ONLY IN THE 30S. LARGE SUBSIDENCE AND ASSOCIATED DEEP DRY
LAYER WL PROVIDE FA WITH MAINLY CLR SKIES WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
ANTICIPATED. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED BOTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 444 AM EDT FRIDAY...WARMER AND MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. SEE THE CLIMATE
SECTION BELOW FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING
A VERY STRONG HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AT
500 MB WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHILE AT
THE SURFACE A BERMUDA HIGH WILL SET UP WHICH WILL BRING
UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD. MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO LOOK TOO COOL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...SO HAVE GONE AT LEAST 3 TO 6 DEGREES OR MORE ABOVE THIS
GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. GFS MODEL
SHOWING 925 MB TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOWING
TEMPERATURES RUNNING 12C- 15C...WHILE THE ECMWF MODEL IS EVEN
WARMER WITH 925 MB TEMPERATURES RUNNING FROM 14C-18C THROUGH THE
PERIOD. MODELS SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES WITH THE THURSDAY
FORECAST...WITH THE GFS MODEL BRINGING A COLD FRONT SOUTH FROM
CANADA THAT APPROACHES THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER BY EARLY THURSDAY
EVENING. THE GFS MODEL ALSO BREAKS DOWN THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE AT
500 MB RIDGE ON THURSDAY. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE ECMWF MODEL
MAINTAINS A STRONG UPPER RIDGE AT 500 MB ON THURSDAY...AND KEEPS
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT MUCH FURTHER NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL QUEBEC ON
THURSDAY. PREFER THE ECMWF SOLUTION FOR THURSDAY AT THIS TIME
AND WILL GO WITH A DRY AND WARM FORECAST FOR THURSDAY. FEEL
GIVEN THE STRONG HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE AT 500 MB...I FEEL THE GFS
MODEL IS TOO FAST IN TRYING TO BREAK DOWN SUCH A STONG HIGH
AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION TODAY BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS. HAVE NOT
INCLUDED ANY MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS OR THE USE OF THE CB TERM
FOR CLOUD COVER AT ANY OF THE TAFS SITES AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE
LOW CHANCE THAT A PARTICULAR TERMINAL WILL GET A THUNDERSTORM.
EXPECTING RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED TONIGHT...AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA. LIGHT WINDS AND
CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO AREAS OF FOG FORMING.
OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION.
&&
.CLIMATE...
MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ANTICIPATED...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MANY
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE BROKEN FROM SUNDAY MARCH 18TH THRU
WEDS MARCH 21ST. BELOW IS A LIST OF RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR SUNDAY
MARCH 18TH THRU WEDS MARCH 21ST.
BTV:
MARCH 18TH: 62 (1945)
MARCH 19TH: 60 (1894)
MARCH 20TH: 70 (1903)
MARCH 21ST: 68 (1946)
MPV:
MARCH 18TH: 58 (1966)
MARCH 19TH: 57 (1968
MARCH 20TH: 62 (1976)
MARCH 21ST: 54 (2003)
1V4:
MARCH 18TH: 66 (1927)
MARCH 19TH: 71 (1903)
MARCH 20TH: 75 (1903)
MARCH 21ST: 71 (1903)
MSS:
MARCH 18TH: 66 (1966)
MARCH 19TH: 60 (1986)
MARCH 20TH: 66 (1976)
MARCH 21ST: 62 (1976)
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...RJS/TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH
CLIMATE...TABER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
751 AM EDT FRI MAR 16 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
THE COMBINATION OF POTENT ENERGY ALOFT AND A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL PRODUCE OCCASIONAL SHOWERS...ALONG WITH A RUMBLE OF THUNDER
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. A SLOW CLEARING TREND WILL DEVELOP
BY LATE TODAY...WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURNING BY THE
WEEKEND. A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE THE NORTH
COUNTRY WITH MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 700 AM EDT FRIDAY...HAVE UPDATED TO REMOVE MENTION OF THUNDER
IN ZONES...AS BEST LIGHTNING ACTIVITY HAS SHIFTED TO OUR SOUTH AND
WEST. A LOCAL WEB CAM HAD A NICE DISPLAY OF IN CLOUD LIGHTNING
LAST NIGHT...PER PICTURE RECEIVED BY OUR LOCAL MEDIA.
OTHERWISE...BAND OF MODERATE RAIN IS ENTERING THE CPV ATTM...AND
WL BE INTO CENTRAL VT BY 14Z...AND THRU EASTERN VT BY 17Z TODAY.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WL RANGE BTWN 0.15 AND 0.30"
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. RADAR STORM TOTAL PRECIP ESTIMATES
SHOW AMOUNTS APPROACHING 1.0" ACRS THE SLV...WHERE NUMEROUS
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED STORMS OCCURRED OVERNIGHT. THIS RAINFALL HAS
SHIFTED EAST AND IS WEAKENING AS STABILITY INCREASES.
OTHERWISE...HIGH TEMP FCST WL BE CHALLENGING THIS AFTN WITH SOME
BREAKS EXPECTED...FEEL A LATE AFTN HIGH TEMP WL OCCUR. HIGHS WL
RANGE FROM THE L/M40S NEK/MTNS TO L/M50S SLV/CPV. AREAS OF PATCHY
FOG WL STILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACRS THE MTN VALLEYS AND HIR
TRRN THRU 15Z TODAY.
FCST CHALLENGE THRU TODAY WL BE TIMING OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDER...ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED TEMPS. WATER VAPOR SHOWS POTENT 5H
VORT ENTERING THE SLV ATTM...WITH PLENTY OF LIGHTNING ACTIVITY
ACRS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE SLV ATTM. THIS
SYSTEM...ALONG WITH GOOD 850 TO 500MB RH AND PWS VALUES
APPROACHING 1.0"...WHICH IS 200 TO 300% ABOVE NORMAL...WL PRODUCE
A BAND OF MODERATE TO LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL ACRS THE FA TODAY.
USING THE RUC13 AND NAM12 700 TO 500MB UVVS AND RH FIELDS...ALONG
WITH LATEST RADAR TRENDS...WOULD SUPPORT PRECIP BEING ACRS THE SLV
BTWN 06-09Z...DACKS FROM 09Z-12Z...CPV BTWN 12-15Z..AND INTO
EASTERN VT BY 18Z TODAY. GIVEN PLENTY OF LIGHTNING ACTIVITY
UPSTREAM AND SW VALUES BTWN -1 AND -2 TODAY...ALONG WITH SOME WEAK
ELEVATED CAPE VALUES WL CONT TO MENTION ISOLATED THUNDER CHCS THRU
21Z...BUT DECREASE CHCS FROM WEST TO EAST...AS INSTABILITY AXIS
SHIFTS EAST OF OUR CWA. GIVEN...STRONG SFC TO 800MB THETA E
CONVERGENCE AND AXIS OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WITH PWS NEAR
1.0"...WL MENTION POPS NEAR 100%...AS BAND OF MODERATE PRECIP
MOVES ACRS OUR CWA TODAY. AVERAGE QPF VALUES WL RANGE FROM 0.25 TO
0.75"...WITH SOME SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE STRONGER
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS...ESPECIALLY ACRS NNY. TEMPS TODAY WL BE
TRICKY...GIVEN CLOUDS/PRECIP...BUT SOME CLRING SHOULD DEVELOP ACRS
THE SLV/NORTHERN NY BY THIS AFTN. SOUNDINGS SHOW LIMITED MIXING
TODAY...BUT WITH SOME SUN THIS AFTN...FEEL SLV/CPV WL REACH THE
L50S...WITH MID 50S NEAR VSF...WHILE CENTRAL/EASTERN
VT...INCLUDING THE NEK STRUGGLE IN THE 40S. TONIGHT...1028MB HIGH
PRES BUILDS ACRS OUR CWA...WITH CLRING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
THESE CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH LEFTOVER BL MOISTURE FROM PREVIOUS
RAINFALL...WL RESULT IN AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING. NAM SOUNDINGS
SHOW PLENTY OF SFC TO 875MB...EVEN AT BTV...THEREFORE WL MENTION
SOME FOG IN FCST TONIGHT. LOWS WL RANGE FROM THE U20S SLK/MTNS/NEK
TO M/U30S WARMER/WIDER VALLEYS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT FRIDAY...
RECORD BREAKING TEMPS ANTICIPATED ON SUNDAY AND INTO
NEXT WEEK...
THE RECORD IN BTV ON SUNDAY MARCH 18TH IS 62 SET BACK IN 1945...AND
OUR FCST TEMP AT BTV FOR SUNDAY IS 74F. MEANWHILE...THE RECORD HIGH
AT MPV IS ONLY 58 SET BACK IN 1966...AND WE ARE FORECASTING A HIGH
TEMP OF 72F ON SUNDAY MARCH 18TH. SEE CLIMO SECTION BELOW FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.
MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS ACRS OUR CWA...WHILE SFC HIGH PRES SHIFTS
INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND BY 12Z SUNDAY. THE COMBINATION OF 2 TO 3
STD ABOVE NORMAL HGHT FIELDS AND 925MB TO 850MB TEMPS WL PRODUCE
RECORD BREAKING TEMPS ACRS OUR FA ON SUNDAY. PROGGED 925MB TEMPS
BTWN 12C AND 14C...SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE U60S MTNS TO M70S WARMER
VALLEYS ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...925MB TEMPS ON SATURDAY RANGE BTWN 8C
NEK TO 12C SLV...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE M/U50S NEK/MTNS TO M/U60S
WARMER VALLEYS LOCATIONS. TEMPS WL BE COOLER...MAINLY 50S TO NEAR
60F...ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKE CHAMPLAIN SHORELINE...DUE TO WATER
TEMPS ONLY IN THE 30S. LARGE SUBSIDENCE AND ASSOCIATED DEEP DRY
LAYER WL PROVIDE FA WITH MAINLY CLR SKIES WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
ANTICIPATED. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED BOTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 444 AM EDT FRIDAY...WARMER AND MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. SEE THE CLIMATE
SECTION BELOW FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING
A VERY STRONG HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AT
500 MB WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHILE AT
THE SURFACE A BERMUDA HIGH WILL SET UP WHICH WILL BRING
UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD. MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO LOOK TOO COOL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...SO HAVE GONE AT LEAST 3 TO 6 DEGREES OR MORE ABOVE THIS
GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. GFS MODEL
SHOWING 925 MB TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOWING
TEMPERATURES RUNNING 12C- 15C...WHILE THE ECMWF MODEL IS EVEN
WARMER WITH 925 MB TEMPERATURES RUNNING FROM 14C-18C THROUGH THE
PERIOD. MODELS SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES WITH THE THURSDAY
FORECAST...WITH THE GFS MODEL BRINGING A COLD FRONT SOUTH FROM
CANADA THAT APPROACHES THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER BY EARLY THURSDAY
EVENING. THE GFS MODEL ALSO BREAKS DOWN THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE AT
500 MB RIDGE ON THURSDAY. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE ECMWF MODEL
MAINTAINS A STRONG UPPER RIDGE AT 500 MB ON THURSDAY...AND KEEPS
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT MUCH FURTHER NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL QUEBEC ON
THURSDAY. PREFER THE ECMWF SOLUTION FOR THURSDAY AT THIS TIME
...AND WILL GO WITH A DRY AND WARM FORECAST FOR THURSDAY. FEEL
GIVEN THE STRONG HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE AT 500 MB...I FEEL THE GFS
MODEL IS TOO FAST IN TRYING TO BREAK DOWN SUCH A STONG HIGH
AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION TODAY BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS. HAVE NOT
INCLUDED ANY MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS OR THE USE OF THE CB TERM
FOR CLOUD COVER AT ANY OF THE TAFS SITES AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE
LOW CHANCE THAT A PARTICULAR TERMINAL WILL GET A THUNDERSTORM.
EXPECTING RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED TONIGHT...AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA. LIGHT WINDS AND
CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO AREAS OF FOG FORMING.
OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION.
&&
.CLIMATE...
MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ANTICIPATED...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MANY
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE BROKEN FROM SUNDAY MARCH 18TH THRU
WEDS MARCH 21ST. BELOW IS A LIST OF RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR SUNDAY
MARCH 18TH THRU WEDS MARCH 21ST.
BTV:
MARCH 18TH: 62 (1945)
MARCH 19TH: 60 (1894)
MARCH 20TH: 70 (1903)
MARCH 21ST: 68 (1946)
MPV:
MARCH 18TH: 58 (1966)
MARCH 19TH: 57 (1968
MARCH 20TH: 62 (1976)
MARCH 21ST: 54 (2003)
1V4:
MARCH 18TH: 66 (1927)
MARCH 19TH: 71 (1903)
MARCH 20TH: 75 (1903)
MARCH 21ST: 71 (1903)
MSS:
MARCH 18TH: 66 (1966)
MARCH 19TH: 60 (1986)
MARCH 20TH: 66 (1976)
MARCH 21ST: 62 (1976)
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH
CLIMATE...TABER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
700 AM EDT FRI MAR 16 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
THE COMBINATION OF POTENT ENERGY ALOFT AND A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL PRODUCE OCCASIONAL SHOWERS...ALONG WITH A RUMBLE OF THUNDER
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. A SLOW CLEARING TREND WILL DEVELOP
BY LATE TODAY...WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURNING BY THE
WEEKEND. A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE THE NORTH
COUNTRY WITH MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS THRU MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 700 AM EDT FRIDAY...HAVE UPDATED TO REMOVE MENTION OF THUNDER
IN ZONES...AS BEST LIGHTNING ACTIVITY HAS SHIFTED TO OUR SOUTH AND
WEST. A LOCAL WEB CAM HAD A NICE DISPLAY OF IN CLOUD LIGHTNING
LAST NIGHT...PER PICTURE RECEIVED BY OUR LOCAL MEDIA.
OTHERWISE...BAND OF MODERATE RAIN IS ENTERING THE CPV ATTM...AND
WL BE INTO CENTRAL VT BY 14Z...AND THRU EASTERN VT BY 17Z TODAY.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WL RANGE BTWN 0.15 AND 0.30"
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. RADAR STORM TOTAL PRECIP ESTIMATES
SHOW AMOUNTS APPROACHING 1.0" ACRS THE SLV...WHERE NUMEROUS
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED STORMS OCCURRED OVERNIGHT. THIS RAINFALL HAS
SHIFTED EAST AND IS WEAKENING AS STABILITY INCREASES.
OTHERWISE...HIGH TEMP FCST WL BE CHALLENGING THIS AFTN WITH SOME
BREAKS EXPECTED...FEEL A LATE AFTN HIGH TEMP WL OCCUR. HIGHS WL
RANGE FROM THE L/M40S NEK/MTNS TO L/M50S SLV/CPV. AREAS OF PATCHY
FOG WL STILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACRS THE MTN VALLEYS AND HIR
TRRN THRU 15Z TODAY.
FCST CHALLENGE THRU TODAY WL BE TIMING OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDER...ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED TEMPS. WATER VAPOR SHOWS POTENT 5H
VORT ENTERING THE SLV ATTM...WITH PLENTY OF LIGHTNING ACTIVITY
ACRS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE SLV ATTM. THIS
SYSTEM...ALONG WITH GOOD 850 TO 500MB RH AND PWS VALUES
APPROACHING 1.0"...WHICH IS 200 TO 300% ABOVE NORMAL...WL PRODUCE
A BAND OF MODERATE TO LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL ACRS THE FA TODAY.
USING THE RUC13 AND NAM12 700 TO 500MB UVVS AND RH FIELDS...ALONG
WITH LATEST RADAR TRENDS...WOULD SUPPORT PRECIP BEING ACRS THE SLV
BTWN 06-09Z...DACKS FROM 09Z-12Z...CPV BTWN 12-15Z..AND INTO
EASTERN VT BY 18Z TODAY. GIVEN PLENTY OF LIGHTNING ACTIVITY
UPSTREAM AND SW VALUES BTWN -1 AND -2 TODAY...ALONG WITH SOME WEAK
ELEVATED CAPE VALUES WL CONT TO MENTION ISOLATED THUNDER CHCS THRU
21Z...BUT DECREASE CHCS FROM WEST TO EAST...AS INSTABILITY AXIS
SHIFTS EAST OF OUR CWA. GIVEN...STRONG SFC TO 800MB THETA E
CONVERGENCE AND AXIS OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WITH PWS NEAR
1.0"...WL MENTION POPS NEAR 100%...AS BAND OF MODERATE PRECIP
MOVES ACRS OUR CWA TODAY. AVERAGE QPF VALUES WL RANGE FROM 0.25 TO
0.75"...WITH SOME SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE STRONGER
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS...ESPECIALLY ACRS NNY. TEMPS TODAY WL BE
TRICKY...GIVEN CLOUDS/PRECIP...BUT SOME CLRING SHOULD DEVELOP ACRS
THE SLV/NORTHERN NY BY THIS AFTN. SOUNDINGS SHOW LIMITED MIXING
TODAY...BUT WITH SOME SUN THIS AFTN...FEEL SLV/CPV WL REACH THE
L50S...WITH MID 50S NEAR VSF...WHILE CENTRAL/EASTERN
VT...INCLUDING THE NEK STRUGGLE IN THE 40S. TONIGHT...1028MB HIGH
PRES BUILDS ACRS OUR CWA...WITH CLRING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
THESE CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH LEFTOVER BL MOISTURE FROM PREVIOUS
RAINFALL...WL RESULT IN AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING. NAM SOUNDINGS
SHOW PLENTY OF SFC TO 875MB...EVEN AT BTV...THEREFORE WL MENTION
SOME FOG IN FCST TONIGHT. LOWS WL RANGE FROM THE U20S SLK/MTNS/NEK
TO M/U30S WARMER/WIDER VALLEYS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT FRIDAY...
RECORD BREAKING TEMPS ANTICIPATED ON SUNDAY AND INTO
NEXT WEEK...
THE RECORD IN BTV ON SUNDAY MARCH 18TH IS 62 SET BACK IN 1945...AND
OUR FCST TEMP AT BTV FOR SUNDAY IS 74F. MEANWHILE...THE RECORD HIGH
AT MPV IS ONLY 58 SET BACK IN 1966...AND WE ARE FORECASTING A HIGH
TEMP OF 72F ON SUNDAY MARCH 18TH. SEE CLIMO SECTION BELOW FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.
MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS ACRS OUR CWA...WHILE SFC HIGH PRES SHIFTS
INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND BY 12Z SUNDAY. THE COMBINATION OF 2 TO 3
STD ABOVE NORMAL HGHT FIELDS AND 925MB TO 850MB TEMPS WL PRODUCE
RECORD BREAKING TEMPS ACRS OUR FA ON SUNDAY. PROGGED 925MB TEMPS
BTWN 12C AND 14C...SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE U60S MTNS TO M70S WARMER
VALLEYS ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...925MB TEMPS ON SATURDAY RANGE BTWN 8C
NEK TO 12C SLV...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE M/U50S NEK/MTNS TO M/U60S
WARMER VALLEYS LOCATIONS. TEMPS WL BE COOLER...MAINLY 50S TO NEAR
60F...ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKE CHAMPLAIN SHORELINE...DUE TO WATER
TEMPS ONLY IN THE 30S. LARGE SUBSIDENCE AND ASSOCIATED DEEP DRY
LAYER WL PROVIDE FA WITH MAINLY CLR SKIES WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
ANTICIPATED. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED BOTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 444 AM EDT FRIDAY...WARMER AND MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. SEE THE CLIMATE
SECTION BELOW FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING
A VERY STRONG HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AT
500 MB WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHILE AT
THE SURFACE A BERMUDA HIGH WILL SET UP WHICH WILL BRING
UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD. MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO LOOK TOO COOL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...SO HAVE GONE AT LEAST 3 TO 6 DEGREES OR MORE ABOVE THIS
GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. GFS MODEL
SHOWING 925 MB TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOWING
TEMPERATURES RUNNING 12C- 15C...WHILE THE ECMWF MODEL IS EVEN
WARMER WITH 925 MB TEMPERATURES RUNNING FROM 14C-18C THROUGH THE
PERIOD. MODELS SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES WITH THE THURSDAY
FORECAST...WITH THE GFS MODEL BRINGING A COLD FRONT SOUTH FROM
CANADA THAT APPROACHES THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER BY EARLY THURSDAY
EVENING. THE GFS MODEL ALSO BREAKS DOWN THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE AT
500 MB RIDGE ON THURSDAY. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE ECMWF MODEL
MAINTAINS A STRONG UPPER RIDGE AT 500 MB ON THURSDAY...AND KEEPS
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT MUCH FURTHER NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL QUEBEC ON
THURSDAY. PREFER THE ECMWF SOLUTION FOR THURSDAY AT THIS TIME
AND WILL GO WITH A DRY AND WARM FORECAST FOR THURSDAY. FEEL
GIVEN THE STRONG HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE AT 500 MB...I FEEL THE GFS
MODEL IS TOO FAST IN TRYING TO BREAK DOWN SUCH A STONG HIGH
AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION TODAY BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS. HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY
MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS OR THE USE OF THE CB TERM FOR CLOUD COVER
AT ANY OF THE TAFS SITES AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE LOW CHANCE THAT A
PARTICULAR TERMINAL WILL GET A THUNDERSTORM. EXPECTING RAIN SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED
TONIGHT...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA. LIGHT
WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME AREAS OF
FOG FORMING...ESPECIALLY IN THOSE AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL
TODAY.
OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION.
&&
.CLIMATE...
MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ANTICIPATED...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MANY
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE BROKEN FROM SUNDAY MARCH 18TH THRU
WEDS MARCH 21ST. BELOW IS A LIST OF RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR SUNDAY
MARCH 18TH THRU WEDS MARCH 21ST.
BTV:
MARCH 18TH: 62 (1945)
MARCH 19TH: 60 (1894)
MARCH 20TH: 70 (1903)
MARCH 21ST: 68 (1946)
MPV:
MARCH 18TH: 58 (1966)
MARCH 19TH: 57 (1968
MARCH 20TH: 62 (1976)
MARCH 21ST: 54 (2003)
1V4:
MARCH 18TH: 66 (1927)
MARCH 19TH: 71 (1903)
MARCH 20TH: 75 (1903)
MARCH 21ST: 71 (1903)
MSS:
MARCH 18TH: 66 (1966)
MARCH 19TH: 60 (1986)
MARCH 20TH: 66 (1976)
MARCH 21ST: 62 (1976)
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
708 AM EDT FRI MAR 16 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT HOLDS OVER THE AREA. A WEAKENED COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT
SOUTH OVER THE CAROLINAS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY BRINGING CLOUDS
AND LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE HOLDING OFFSHORE NEXT WEEK COMBINED WITH AN
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 645 AM FRIDAY...VIA LATEST KLTX AND SURROUNDING 88DS INDICATE
WIDELY SCATTERED -SHRA DEVELOPING AND/OR MOVING ACROSS THE FA. WEAK
S/W TROF ALOFT ADVERTIZED BY THE LATEST RUC MODEL IS CURRENTLY
PUSHING ACROSS THE FA...AND IN CONJUNCTION WITH A WEAK SFC TROF
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS...WIDELY SCATTERED -SHRA WILL CONTINUE
TO AFFECT THE AREA THIS MORNING. A STRONGER S/W UPPER TROF HAVING
CRASHED INTO THE UPPER RIDGE AS IT CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS THE
APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN AND EVENTUALLY SUCCUMB TO
THE UPPER RIDGE. ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO
THE COAST THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH MUCH OF ITS MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF
CLOUDS AND ONLY ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED PCPN. A WEAK BACKDOOR TYPE
COLD FRONT EXTENDING EAST-WEST...WILL DROP SOUTH TODAY WITH MODELS
STALLING IT TONIGHT EITHER ACROSS OR JUST NORTH OF THE ILM CWA
RESPECTIVELY. CONVECTION CHANCES LOOK SLIGHTLY BETTER AHEAD OF THIS
SFC FEATURE THAN EARLIER...AND AS A RESULT WILL INDICATE CHANCE POPS
NORTHERN PORTIONS...DROPPING TO ISOLATED COVERAGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS. THE UPPER RIDGE HOLDING TOUGH ACROSS THE
FA...WILL ACT AS A NEGATIVE FOR PCPN CHANCES. AS FOR MAX/MIN
TEMPS...USED THE HIER MODEL MOS GUIDANCE AND THEN ADDED A FEW
DEGREES...ESPECIALLY CONCERNING TODAYS MAXES. THE SEA BREEZE WILL BE
ACTIVE ONCE AGAIN WITH MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING WINDS ONLY 15 KT OR
LESS THROUGH 300MB. HOWEVER...DONT EXPECT IT TO PUSH AS FAR INLAND
LIKE PREVIOUS DAYS DUE TO CLOUDS AND THREAT FOR PCPN RESULTING IN
MAXES NOT AS HIGH LIKE THE PREVIOUS DAYS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE. RIDGE BUILDING
BACK IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS ON SAT BUT WEAKENED COLD FRONT
MAKING ITS WAY SOUTH OVER NORTH CAROLINA. DECENT AMOUNT OF LIFT
AND MOISTURE AHEAD OF FRONT ON SAT AFTN AIDED BY CONVERGENCE ALONG
SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY. THE BEST LIFT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE JUST TO
THE NORTH AND WEST OF LOCAL CWA BUT WINDS THROUGHOUT THE LOW TO
MID LEVELS WILL BE W-NW AND SHOULD STEER ANY SHWRS/TSTMS AND
DEBRIS CLOUDS UPSTREAM TOWARD THE COAST. WILL SEE A GOOD DEAL OF
CLOUDS IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS STREAMING OVER AREA.
THE COLD FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH AND WEAKEN BUT SHOULD
REMAIN A FOCAL POINT FOR CONVECTION ALONG WITH THE SEA BREEZE TO
PRODUCE SHWRS/TSTMS AGAIN ON SUNDAY. THE BEST CHC LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL SHIFT SOUTH OVER SOUTH CAROLINA FOR SUNDAY. THIS BOUNDARY
MAY REMAIN IN VICINITY AS IT BEGINS TO DISSIPATE BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM THE ATLANTIC AND ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE NOSING IN FROM THE N-NE BY SUN AFTN. OVERALL WILL SEE A
FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS OVER THE AREA AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AROUND FOR THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WELL ABOVE NORMAL. GOOD AMOUNT
OF CLOUDS WILL NOT HELP MUCH TO KEEP AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS FROM
REACHING AROUND 80 DEGREES. THE CLOUDS WILL PREVENT MUCH IN THE
WAY OF RADIATIONAL COOLING AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL BE CLOSE TO
60. THEREFORE EXPECT WARM NIGHTS AND VERY WARM DAYS THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE. MASSIVE UPPER
RIDGE BUILDING UP THE EAST COAST WILL TAKE A WHILE TO BREAK DOWN.
LINGERING MOISTURE AND DECENT SEA BREEZE EACH AFTERNOON WILL
PROVIDE A FOCAL POINT FOR CLOUDS AND CONVECTION BUT HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN THROUGH THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM THE
N-NE AT THE SURFACE WILL ORIENT ITSELF FURTHER OFF SHORE AND WILL
SEE BERMUDA HIGH DOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE CENTER DOES
MIGRATE WESTWARD CLOSER OVERHEAD THROUGH THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO THE WEST TRIES TO MAKE ITS WAY EAST. SHOULD SEE THIS
SYSTEM WEAKEN AS IT COMES UP AGAINST THE STRONG RIDGE. IF IT DOES
MAKE IT INTO THE CAROLINAS IT PROBABLY WILL NOT MAKE IT UNTIL
FRIDAY.
PCP WATER VALUES SPIKE UP A BIT ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY EACH DAY
REACHING AROUND 1.4 INCHES BUT BY MID WEEK...WED INTO THURS...GFS
SHOWING A DRY PUNCH COMING IN FROM THE EAST WITH PCP WATER VALUES
DROPPING DOWN TO AROUND A HALF INCH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK
INTO AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC. THEREFORE SHWRS/TSTMS TO DROP OUT OF
THE FORECAST BY MID WEEK. LOOKS LIKE EVENTUALLY THIS DRY AIR WILL
GET ERODED AWAY BUT PROBABLY NOT UNTIL FRIDAY WHEN MOIST SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
OVERALL TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 BUT WILL TAKE
A SLIGHT DIP MID WEEK AS DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE EAST WILL
ALLOW DEWPOINT TEMPS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS TO DROP SEVERAL DEGREES
CLOSER TO THE LOWER END OF 50 RATHER THAN NEAR 60. THIS WILL KEEP
THE DIURNAL RISE IN TEMPS FROM REACHING AS HIGH...BUT STILL
EXPECTING TEMPS INTO THE 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...MODERATE UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION TODAY. ATMOSPHERE IS REASONABLY JUICY FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...HOWEVER THERE IS NOT MUCH OF A TRIGGER. THE GFS IN PARTICULAR
IS NOT VERY ENTHUSED...WITH ONLY 20 POPS FOR TODAY. THE NAM IS A BIT
MORE PESSIMISTIC. A LOT WILL DEPEND ON THE SOLAR INSOLATION TODAY.
IF WE GET INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80...THINGS WILL PROBABLY POP.
TONIGHT...DIMINISHING CONVECTION WITH SOME LIGHT FOG EXPECTED.
DEBRIS FROM CONVECTION COULD INHIBIT FOG FORMATION. LIGHT SOUTHWEST
FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. MORNING FOG POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS. VFR TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 645 AM FRIDAY...RIDGING FROM THE SFC HIGH CENTERED WELL
OFFSHORE AND EAST OF THE ILM WATERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE
NEAR TERM. THE RIDGING WILL DEPRESS SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH AS A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH...WITH IT POSSIBLY REACHING THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS TONIGHT BEFORE STALLING. THE SFC PRESSURE PATTERN
PROVIDES A S-SW WIND THROUGHOUT THE NEAR TERM. THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT REMAINS QUITE RELAXED...YIELDING WIND SPEEDS 10 KT OR
LESS...EXCEPT COULD OBSERVE A BRIEF PERIOD OF 10-15 KT NEAR SHORE
FROM A MODEST SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. AN ESE 2 FOOT GROUND SWELL AT 8-10 SECOND PERIODS WILL
COMBINE WITH A 1-2 FOOT 4 SECOND PERIOD WIND WAVE. THIS WILL PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT SEAS AT 2 TO 3 FT THROUGHOUT THE NEAR TERM.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...RATHER BENIGN SEAS WILL CONTINUE IN A LIGHT TO
MODERATE RETURN FLOW AROUND HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE
ATLANTIC. WILL SEE SLIGHT VEERING TO THE W-SW SOME VARYING WINDS
AS WEAKENED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTS SOUTH OVER THE WATERS LATE SAT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY BUT OVERALL WILL MAINTAIN S-SW WINDS AROUND 10
TO 15 KTS A LITTLE HIGHER TO START IN TIGHTER GRADIENT FLOW AS
COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON FRI. WINDS WILL WEAKEN HEADING INTO
SUNDAY. OVERALL SEAS WILL BE AROUND 2 TO 4 TO START BUT WILL
REMAIN 2 TO 3 FT THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...WITHOUT ANY OTHER SYSTEMS MOVING IN...THE
GRADIENT WILL BE ALLOWED TO RELAX THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES UP THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE. SEAS WILL ACTUALLY
DECREASE A BIT MORE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...LEAVING MOST WATERS
LESS THAN 3 FT BY LATE MON INTO TUESDAY. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
WILL DOMINATE AS BERMUDA HIGH DOMINATES THE WEATHER. WINDS WILL BE
LESS THAN 10 KTS WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE WITH THE SEA BREEZE EACH
AFTERNOON AS LAND AREAS WARM CLOSE TO 80.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...43
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
655 AM EDT FRI MAR 16 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT HOLDS OVER THE AREA. A WEAKENED COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT
SOUTH OVER THE CAROLINAS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY BRINGING CLOUDS
AND LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE HOLDING OFFSHORE NEXT WEEK COMBINED WITH AN
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 645 AM FRIDAY...VIA LATEST KLTX AND SURROUNDING 88DS
...INDICATE WIDELY SCATTERED -SHRA DEVELOPING AND/OR MOVING ACROSS
THE FA. WEAK S/W TROF ALOFT ADVERTIZED BY THE LATEST RUC MODEL IS
CURRENTLY PUSHING ACROSS THE FA...AND IN CONJUNCTION WITH A WEAK SFC
TROF ACROSS THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS...WIDELY SCATTERED -SHRA WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA THIS MORNING. A STRONGER S/W UPPER TROF
HAVING CRASHED INTO THE UPPER RIDGE AS IT CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS
THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN AND EVENTUALLY
SUCCUMB TO THE UPPER RIDGE. ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
TRACK TO THE COAST THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH MUCH OF ITS MOISTURE IN
THE FORM OF CLOUDS AND ONLY ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED PCPN.
A WEAK BACKDOOR TYPE COLD FRONT EXTENDING EAST-WEST...WILL DROP
SOUTH TODAY WITH MODELS STALLING IT TONIGHT EITHER ACROSS OR JUST
NORTH OF THE ILM CWA RESPECTIVELY. CONVECTION CHANCES LOOK SLIGHTLY
BETTER AHEAD OF THIS SFC FEATURE THAN EARLIER...AND AS A RESULT WILL
INDICATE CHANCE POPS NORTHERN PORTIONS...DROPPING TO ISOLATED
COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS. THE UPPER RIDGE HOLDING TOUGH
ACROSS THE FA...WILL ACT AS A NEGATIVE FOR PCPN CHANCES. AS FOR
MAX/MIN TEMPS...USED THE HIER MODEL MOS GUIDANCE AND THEN ADDED A
FEW DEGREES...ESPECIALLY CONCERNING TODAYS MAXES. THE SEA BREEZE
WILL BE ACTIVE ONCE AGAIN WITH MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING WINDS ONLY
15 KT OR LESS THROUGH 300MB. HOWEVER...DONT EXPECT IT TO PUSH AS FAR
INLAND LIKE PREVIOUS DAYS DUE TO CLOUDS AND THREAT FOR PCPN
RESULTING IN MAXES NOT AS HIGH LIKE THE PREVIOUS DAYS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE. RIDGE BUILDING
BACK IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS ON SAT BUT WEAKENED COLD FRONT
MAKING ITS WAY SOUTH OVER NORTH CAROLINA. DECENT AMOUNT OF LIFT
AND MOISTURE AHEAD OF FRONT ON SAT AFTN AIDED BY CONVERGENCE ALONG
SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY. THE BEST LIFT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE JUST TO
THE NORTH AND WEST OF LOCAL CWA BUT WINDS THROUGHOUT THE LOW TO
MID LEVELS WILL BE W-NW AND SHOULD STEER ANY SHWRS/TSTMS AND
DEBRIS CLOUDS UPSTREAM TOWARD THE COAST. WILL SEE A GOOD DEAL OF
CLOUDS IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS STREAMING OVER AREA.
THE COLD FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH AND WEAKEN BUT SHOULD
REMAIN A FOCAL POINT FOR CONVECTION ALONG WITH THE SEA BREEZE TO
PRODUCE SHWRS/TSTMS AGAIN ON SUNDAY. THE BEST CHC LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL SHIFT SOUTH OVER SOUTH CAROLINA FOR SUNDAY. THIS BOUNDARY
MAY REMAIN IN VICINITY AS IT BEGINS TO DISSIPATE BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM THE ATLANTIC AND ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE NOSING IN FROM THE N-NE BY SUN AFTN. OVERALL WILL SEE A
FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS OVER THE AREA AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AROUND FOR THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WELL ABOVE NORMAL. GOOD AMOUNT
OF CLOUDS WILL NOT HELP MUCH TO KEEP AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS FROM
REACHING AROUND 80 DEGREES. THE CLOUDS WILL PREVENT MUCH IN THE
WAY OF RADIATIONAL COOLING AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL BE CLOSE TO
60. THEREFORE EXPECT WARM NIGHTS AND VERY WARM DAYS THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE. MASSIVE UPPER
RIDGE BUILDING UP THE EAST COAST WILL TAKE A WHILE TO BREAK DOWN.
LINGERING MOISTURE AND DECENT SEA BREEZE EACH AFTERNOON WILL
PROVIDE A FOCAL POINT FOR CLOUDS AND CONVECTION BUT HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN THROUGH THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM THE
N-NE AT THE SURFACE WILL ORIENT ITSELF FURTHER OFF SHORE AND WILL
SEE BERMUDA HIGH DOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE CENTER DOES
MIGRATE WESTWARD CLOSER OVERHEAD THROUGH THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO THE WEST TRIES TO MAKE ITS WAY EAST. SHOULD SEE THIS
SYSTEM WEAKEN AS IT COMES UP AGAINST THE STRONG RIDGE. IF IT DOES
MAKE IT INTO THE CAROLINAS IT PROBABLY WILL NOT MAKE IT UNTIL
FRIDAY.
PCP WATER VALUES SPIKE UP A BIT ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY EACH DAY
REACHING AROUND 1.4 INCHES BUT BY MID WEEK...WED INTO THURS...GFS
SHOWING A DRY PUNCH COMING IN FROM THE EAST WITH PCP WATER VALUES
DROPPING DOWN TO AROUND A HALF INCH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK
INTO AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC. THEREFORE SHWRS/TSTMS TO DROP OUT OF
THE FORECAST BY MID WEEK. LOOKS LIKE EVENTUALLY THIS DRY AIR WILL
GET ERODED AWAY BUT PROBABLY NOT UNTIL FRIDAY WHEN MOIST SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
OVERALL TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 BUT WILL TAKE
A SLIGHT DIP MID WEEK AS DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE EAST WILL
ALLOW DEWPOINT TEMPS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS TO DROP SEVERAL DEGREES
CLOSER TO THE LOWER END OF 50 RATHER THAN NEAR 60. THIS WILL KEEP
THE DIURNAL RISE IN TEMPS FROM REACHING AS HIGH...BUT STILL
EXPECTING TEMPS INTO THE 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...VFR TO DOMINATE THE VALID ISSUANCE PERIOD...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF MVFR/IFR FOG CONDITIONS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY IS QUIET ACROSS OUR AREA WITH ACTIVITY
TRACKING EAST FROM THE WESTERN CAROLINAS BASICALLY DISSIPATING BY
THE TIME IT REACHES THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. AS A RESULT WILL REMOVE
PCPN THREAT FROM THE PRE-DAWN HRS. GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. GUIDANCE HINTING AT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPMENT. ONCE
THE MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS SCOURS OUT SOME...FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL
BECOME A REALITY. HAVE OPTED FOR TEMPO GROUPING WITH MVFR/IFR FOG AT
ALL TERMINALS...WITH THE WORST FOG CONDITIONS AFFECTING THE LOCAL
TERMINALS IN A 3-4 HR WINDOW SURROUNDING DAYBREAK. BY MIDDAY AND
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE ISSUANCE PERIOD INTO TONIGHT...ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WILL BE ADVERTISED. FOR NOW...HAVE INCLUDED
VICINITY WORDING FOR CONVECTION AT ALL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE
VALID ISSUANCE PERIOD. ANTICIPATE SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH WINDS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS AOB 12 KTS BY
AFTERNOON...SUBSIDING TO NEAR 6 KTS TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD.
ANOTHER ACTIVE SEA BREEZE BUT NOT NEARLY AS IMPRESSIVE LIKE THE PAST
FEW DAYS DUE TO CLOUDINESS AND THREAT OF PCPN HOLDING MAX TEMPS
DOWN.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. MORNING FOG POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS. VFR TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 645 AM FRIDAY...RIDGING FROM THE SFC HIGH CENTERED WELL
OFFSHORE AND EAST OF THE ILM WATERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE
NEAR TERM. THE RIDGING WILL DEPRESS SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH AS A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH...WITH IT POSSIBLY REACHING THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS TONIGHT BEFORE STALLING. THE SFC PRESSURE PATTERN
PROVIDES A S-SW WIND THROUGHOUT THE NEAR TERM. THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT REMAINS QUITE RELAXED...YIELDING WIND SPEEDS 10 KT OR
LESS...EXCEPT COULD OBSERVE A BRIEF PERIOD OF 10-15 KT NEAR SHORE
FROM A MODEST SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. AN ESE 2 FOOT GROUND SWELL AT 8-10 SECOND PERIODS WILL
COMBINE WITH A 1-2 FOOT 4 SECOND PERIOD WIND WAVE. THIS WILL PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT SEAS AT 2 TO 3 FT THROUGHOUT THE NEAR TERM.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...RATHER BENIGN SEAS WILL CONTINUE IN A LIGHT TO
MODERATE RETURN FLOW AROUND HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE
ATLANTIC. WILL SEE SLIGHT VEERING TO THE W-SW SOME VARYING WINDS
AS WEAKENED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTS SOUTH OVER THE WATERS LATE SAT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY BUT OVERALL WILL MAINTAIN S-SW WINDS AROUND 10
TO 15 KTS A LITTLE HIGHER TO START IN TIGHTER GRADIENT FLOW AS
COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON FRI. WINDS WILL WEAKEN HEADING INTO
SUNDAY. OVERALL SEAS WILL BE AROUND 2 TO 4 TO START BUT WILL
REMAIN 2 TO 3 FT THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...WITHOUT ANY OTHER SYSTEMS MOVING IN...THE
GRADIENT WILL BE ALLOWED TO RELAX THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES UP THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE. SEAS WILL ACTUALLY
DECREASE A BIT MORE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...LEAVING MOST WATERS
LESS THAN 3 FT BY LATE MON INTO TUESDAY. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
WILL DOMINATE AS BERMUDA HIGH DOMINATES THE WEATHER. WINDS WILL BE
LESS THAN 10 KTS WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE WITH THE SEA BREEZE EACH
AFTERNOON AS LAND AREAS WARM CLOSE TO 80.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...DCH/SGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1008 AM EDT FRI MAR 16 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SAG THROUGH THE REGION TODAY...BRINGING
A SLIGHT COOL DOWN BEFORE WARM WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WEAK WARM FRONT PRETTY MUCH BISECTS THE FCST AREA...DOG LEGGING
FROM JUST EAST OF BRADFORD AND STATE COLLEGE DOWN WEST OF
HARRISBURG AND YORK. IT SHOWS UP QUITE WELL IN THE ANALYZED LI
FIELDS. SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT IT MAY NOT MOVE MUCH
TODAY BEFORE FINALLY BEING SCOURED OUT BY A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT LATER TODAY.
LATEST HIGH RES ARW AND HRRR SHOW THAT THE AREA OF SHOWERS GOING
THROUGH NOW WILL CONTINUE EAST AND DISSIPATE...WITH JUST WIDELY
SCATTERED ACTIVITY BECOMING POSSIBLE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
WILL BE ANOTHER MILD DAY...BUT SEVERAL DEG COOLER THAN YESTERDAY
WITH THE CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND THE REGION.
OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LI`S REMAIN NEAR ZERO TODAY SO
CANNOT RULE OUT THE RUMBLE OF THUNDER AS WELL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED EAST OF PA WILL BRING ANOTHER WARM AND DRY
DAY TO THE CWA. 850MB TEMPERATURES SUPPORT ANOTHER DAY WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO MIDDLE 70S UNDER ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE. AMAZING WEATHER FOR MID MARCH...A GOOD 20 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LONG WAVE PATTERN SHOWS STRONG RIDGING ACROSS EASTERN US THROUGH
THE EXTENDED. SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH SHORTWAVE TRACKING THROUGH THE
RIDGE LATE SUNDAY AND OVERNIGHT. INCREASED POPS WITH THIS FEATURE.
OTHERWISE...MAJORITY OF THE EXTENDED LOOKS DRY WITH TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING TO BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. LATE IN THE EXTENDED WILL
HAVE TO WATCH WHAT CUTOFF LOW IN CENTRAL US DOES...BUT FOR NOW
MAJORITY OF SOLUTIONS HAVE IT STAYING WEST OF HERE SUPPORTING THE
WARM TEMPERATURES WE ARE FORECASTING.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FRONT OVER EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA KEEPING LOW CLOUDS LOCKED IN OVER
MUCH OF THE SUSQ VALLEY. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR TO CONTINUE
THROUGH LATE MORNING BEFORE SLOW IMPROVEMENT BEGINS.
OUTLOOK...
SAT-TUE...VFR...WITH BRIEF REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCT
SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...ROSS/CERU
LONG TERM...ROSS
AVIATION...LA CORTE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
814 AM EDT FRI MAR 16 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SAG THROUGH THE REGION TODAY...BRINGING
A SLIGHT COOL DOWN BEFORE WARM WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE VERY WARM.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WEAK WARM FRONT DOG LEGS FROM JUST EAST OF BRADFORD AND STATE
COLLEGE DOWN WEST OF HARRISBURG AND YORK. IT SHOWS UP QUITE WELL
IN THE ANALYZED LI FIELDS. SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT IT
MAY NOT MOVE MUCH TODAY BEFORE FINALLY BEING SCOURED OUT BY A WEAK
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT LATER TODAY.
LATEST HIGH RES ARW AND HRRR SHOW THAT THE AREA OF SHOWERS GOING
THROUGH NOW WILL CONTINUE EAST AND DISSIPATE...WITH JUST WIDELY
SCATTERED ACTIVITY BECOMING POSSIBLE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
WILL BE ANOTHER MILD DAY...BUT SEVERAL DEG COOLER THAN YESTERDAY
WITH THE CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND THE REGION.
OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LI`S REMAIN NEAR ZERO TODAY SO
CANNOT RULE OUT THE RUMBLE OF THUNDER AS WELL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED EAST OF PA WILL BRING ANOTHER WARM AND DRY
DAY TO THE CWA. 850MB TEMPERATURES SUPPORT ANOTHER DAY WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO MIDDLE 70S UNDER ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE. AMAZING WEATHER FOR MID MARCH...A GOOD 20 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LONG WAVE PATTERN SHOWS STRONG RIDGING ACROSS EASTERN US THROUGH
THE EXTENDED. SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH SHORTWAVE TRACKING THROUGH THE
RIDGE LATE SUNDAY AND OVERNIGHT. INCREASED POPS WITH THIS FEATURE.
OTHERWISE...MAJORITY OF THE EXTENDED LOOKS DRY WITH TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING TO BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. LATE IN THE EXTENDED WILL
HAVE TO WATCH WHAT CUTOFF LOW IN CENTRAL US DOES...BUT FOR NOW
MAJORITY OF SOLUTIONS HAVE IT STAYING WEST OF HERE SUPPORTING THE
WARM TEMPERATURES WE ARE FORECASTING.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FRONT OVER EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA KEEPING LOW CLOUDS LOCKED IN OVER
MUCH OF THE SUSQ VALLEY. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR TO CONTINUE
THROUGH LATE MORNING BEFORE SLOW IMPROVEMENT BEGINS.
OUTLOOK...
SAT-TUE...VFR...WITH BRIEF REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCT
SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ROSS/LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/CERU
SHORT TERM...ROSS/CERU
LONG TERM...ROSS
AVIATION...CERU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
645 AM CDT FRI MAR 16 2012
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
303 AM CDT FRI MAR 16 2012
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...AS WELL AS THE LONG PERIOD OF WARMTH SEEN.
CURRENTLY AS OF 07Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED TROUGHING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND RIDGING BUILDING
OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO MANITOBA. TWO OTHER FEATURES OF NOTE
IN WATER VAPOR ARE SHORTWAVES OVER NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND NEAR
TUSCON ARIZONA. UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR REMAINS UNDER THE BUILDING
RIDGING AND PRETTY MUCH THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE U.S.. 850MB
TEMPS AT 00Z RANGED FROM 10-12C AT BIS...ABR...MPX AND GRB...WHILE
OAX AND DVN WERE WARMER AT 14C. AT THE SURFACE...LEE TROUGHING WAS
PRESENT FROM THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS DOWN INTO NEW MEXICO...WHILE A
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING OFF THE LEE TROUGHING EAST ALONG US-20 IN
IOWA. THIS STATIONARY FRONT NOT ONLY SEPARATES SOME OF THE WARMER
850MB AIR SEEN ON 00Z RAOBS...BUT MOISTURE AS WELL. THE 850MB
DEWPOINT AT MPX WAS -10C...COMPARED TO 6C AT DVN. ON A SIDE NOTE...
THE 12Z NAM/GFS WERE 3-5C TOO HIGH WITH THE DEWPOINT AT 850MB FOR A
12 HOUR FORECAST AT DVN...BUT NEARLY SPOT ON AT MPX. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS JUMP NEARLY 20F BETWEEN MSP AND DSM WITH WIDESPREAD MID
50S TO LOW 60S READINGS SOUTH OF THE FRONT. 925MB PROFILER AND RADAR
VWP DATA SHOWED AN INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND FROM OKLAHOMA
INTO IOWA AND THE DAKOTAS...INDICATIVE OF THE BUILDING UPPER
RIDGING. SO FAR ANY FOG THAT HAS FORMED HAS BEEN PATCHY AND
RESTRICTED TO RIVER VALLEYS.
UPPER AND SURFACE PATTERN...OVERALL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
HERE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. TROUGHING CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST IS GOING TO BECOME A FULL LONGWAVE TROUGH DOWN THE WEST
COAST OF THE U.S. BY 18Z SATURDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...THE UPPER FLOW
OVER THE FORECAST AREA BRIEFLY TURNS SOUTHWEST FOR TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY...THEN HEIGHTS/RIDGING BUILDS OVERHEAD. FOR SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGHING SHIFTS EAST INTO THE
ROCKIES...RESULTING IN A SLIGHT SHIFT EASTWARD OF THE RIDGING OVER
THE FORECAST AREA. IN ADDITION...A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ENDS UP
FORMING OVER EASTERN MONTANA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. NOW REGARDING
SOME OF THE INDIVIDUAL PERIOD DETAILS:
TODAY AND TONIGHT...AS THE UPPER RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS
PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...THE STATIONARY FRONT COMES
NORTH...CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 18Z AND 06Z. GIVEN ALL
THE UNSEASONABLE WARMTH AND HUMIDITY ALONG/SOUTH OF THE FRONT...
CONCERN IS IF ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD FORM ON THIS
FRONT. IN FACT...16.00Z GFS SHOWS ONLY 25-50 J/KG OF MLCIN
ALONG/SOUTH OF THE FRONT. ONLY REAL SHORTWAVE OF NOTE IS THE ONE
OVER NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...ALBEIT IT IS VERY WEAK...WHICH IS PROGGED
TO MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HARD TO SAY IF THIS
INITIATES CONVECTION OR NOT. THE 16.00Z GFS SAYS IT DOES OVER FAR
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN...WHILE THE 16.00Z NAM/SPC WRF SAYS NOT AT ALL.
REGARDING THE FRONT ITSELF...0-2 KM CONVERGENCE PLOTS FROM BOTH THE
GFS AND NAM SHOW NO CONVERGENCE OCCURRING. FEELING IS THAT GIVEN THE
FRONT HAS NO CONVERGENCE...WE WILL END UP DRY...BUT THE WEAK
SHORTWAVE IS A WORRY. WHATEVER DOES FORM THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD
DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. THE OVERNIGHT THEN LOOKS
DRY WITH THE AREA UNDERNEATH A BROAD STREAM OF 925-850MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WITH NO FOCUSING MECHANISM. REGARDING TEMPERATURES...850MB
READINGS HOLD STEADY TODAY BETWEEN 10-12C...THOUGH 925MB READINGS
ARE PROGGED 2-4C HIGHER NORTH OF I-90 COMPARED TO 00Z FRIDAY.
THEREFORE...ANTICIPATING HIGHS TO BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY SOUTH OF
I-90 AND 4-6F WARMER NORTH OF I-90. CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION ON A
SOUTHERLY BREEZE TONIGHT...PLUS HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL ALL LEAD TO
LOWS STAYING UP IN THE 50S. A FEW SPOTS MAY NOT DROP BELOW 60.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THINGS GET EVEN MORE MURKY TO FIND
TRIGGERS FOR CONVECTION. WITH THE MAIN FRONT...NOW A WARM FRONT...
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...AM CONCERNED THIS ENTIRE TIME PERIOD WE
WILL END UP CAPPED. THE 16.00Z NAM DOES DEVELOP CONVECTION NORTH OF
I-90 SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT THIS LOOKS SUSPICIOUS. THE
SHORTWAVE CAUSING THE NAM TO DEVELOP THE CONVECTION ORIGINATES FROM
UTAH RIGHT NOW...WHICH IS TOUGH TO FIND ON WATER VAPOR...THEN
SUDDENLY STRENGTHENS OVER EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA LATE SATURDAY.
OUTSIDE OF THE NAM...THE CANADIAN/GFS/ECMWF ALL BASICALLY DEPICT A
DRY SCENARIO...WITH A LITTLE SMATTERING OF QPF ON SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. HAVE DECIDED SINCE THE SMATTERING OF QPF STILL
EXISTS TO MAINTAIN THE PREVIOUS 20 PERCENT CHANCES FOR SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT...PER ALSO COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.
UNLESS A MORE DEFINED SIGNAL FOR PRECIPITATION BECOMES APPARENT...
ENVISION THESE 20 PERCENT CHANCES CAN BE DROPPED. THIS LEAVES
TEMPERATURES THE MAIN CONCERN. 925MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED BETWEEN
16-18C BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THESE READINGS PRODUCED HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S OVER NORTHEAST IOWA YESTERDAY...SO THESE SHOULD BE
SEEN IN MOST AREAS OVER THE WEEKEND. LOWS ALSO EXPECTED TO STAY VERY
WARM WITH ABNORMALLY HIGH DEWPOINTS AND A SUSTAINED SOUTH BREEZE.
NOTE...SHOULD ANY STORMS FORM DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...0-6KM
SHEAR IS LESS THAN 20 KT. PLUS...ALL CAPE PROFILES SUGGEST A NARROW
RIBBON. THEREFORE...NO SEVERE STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH LIGHTNING
AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN THE MAIN CONCERNS.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
303 AM CDT FRI MAR 16 2012
ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD FOCUS IS ON THE SPEED AND EVOLUTION OF THE
LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE ROCKIES SUNDAY NIGHT. A STRONG
CONSENSUS EXISTS AMONGST THE ECMWF/GFS/CANADIAN AND GFS ENSEMBLES
FOR THE TROUGH TO REACH THE WESTERN PLAINS BY 12Z TUESDAY...THEN
BEGIN TO SPLIT APART AS IT RUNS INTO THE VERY STRONG RIDGE TO ITS
EAST. THE NORTHERN PART OF THE TROUGH ENDS UP LIFTING NORTH TOWARDS
HUDSON/JAMES BAYS BY WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE SOUTHERN END CUTS OFF
INTO AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE 16.00Z GFS/ECMWF
AND SOME GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HINT THAT BY LATE THURSDAY THE UPPER
LOW COULD START LIFTING NORTH TOWARDS THE AREA. HOWEVER...THE 15.12Z
ECMWF...SOME 16.00Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND EXTRAPOLATION OF THE
16.00Z CANADIAN ALL SUGGEST A VERY SLOW MOVEMENT WHICH SEEMS MORE
REASONABLE.
REGARDING THE IMPACT ON THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE UPPER TROUGH...A
STRONG SOUTHERLY JET OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF IT SHOULD START PRODUCING
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF I-35 MONDAY MORNING. THESE
WILL THEN SLOWLY PROCEED TO MOVE EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. BEST CHANCES TO SEE PRECIPITATION
WOULD BE WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...CLOSER TO THE FORCING FROM
THE UPPER TROUGH. FOR NOW HAVE STAYED PRETTY CLOSE TO A CONSENSUS ON
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO HANDLE UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING AND DISTANCE
IN TIME IN THE FORECAST...THOUGH THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT. THE EXACT TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES COULD
CHANGE AS WE GET CLOSER. LOWER CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION EXIST
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...DUE TO THE LINGERING STREAM OF
MOISTURE AND FORCING FROM THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE UPPER
TROUGH...OR THE UPPER LOW APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A SLOW COOL DOWN THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD AS THE UPPER TROUGH/LOW APPROACH THE REGION. STILL...850MB
TEMPS DROP ONLY FROM AROUND 12C MONDAY TO 8-10C ON THURSDAY.
THEREFORE TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO STAY WELL ABOVE NORMAL...
ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT WITH THE CLOUDS PREVENTING HEAT LOSS. DEPENDING
ON THE PROGRESSION OF THE CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...POTENTIAL EXISTS TO BREAK RECORD HIGHS.
&&
.AVIATION...TODAY AND TONIGHT
645 AM CDT FRI MAR 16 2012
DEALING WITH FOG POTENTIAL EARLY THIS MORNING AS A UNSEASONABLY
MILD/MOIST AIRMASS CONTINUES OVER THE AREA. WINDS AT BLUFF TOP
AT THE WEATHER OFFICE HAVE STAYED STIRRED UP AROUND 3-5MPH WITH A
COUPLE GUST AROUND 12 MPH. THIS STIRRING APPEARS TO HAVE KEPT
DENSE FOG FROM FORMING DOWN IN THE RIVER VALLEY/KLSE TAF SITE.
HAVE PREDOMINANT 4SM BR GOING RIGHT NOW WITH TEMPO FROM 12-14Z OF
1-2SM BR. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
HOURS. OTHERWISE...KRST HAS STAYED UP P6SM ALL NIGHT AS WINDS
THERE STAYED UP SUSTAINED AROUND 8 KT TO PREVENT FOG. CARRYING
JUST SOME 6SM BR THERE UNTIL 14Z. BEYOND THIS...LOOKING AT
UNSEASONABLY WARM/MOIST AIR MASS TO MOVE IN/STAY ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR SOME CONVECTION
TODAY IN DAYTIME HEATING AND BUILDING INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...THERE
REMAINS NO FOCUSING MECHANISM TO FORCE CONVECTION. SO...LOOK FOR
SOME BUILDUP IN CUMULUS TODAY BUT REMAINING SCATTERED WITH BASES
AROUND 3000FT. WILL HAVE TO KEEP A VIGILANT EYE ON THE
POSSIBILITY OF SHRA/TS DEVELOPMENT TODAY AT THE TAF SITES MAINLY
THIS AFTERNOON DURING PEAK HEATING. ALSO INTRODUCED SOME LIGHT 5SM BR
TONIGHT AFTER 07Z WITH SOME COOLING IN THE LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER
OVERNIGHT AND MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE.
&&
.CLIMATE...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY
303 AM CDT FRI MAR 16 2012
BOTH RECORD HIGHS AND RECORD WARM LOW TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE EACH
DAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS
CONTINUES TO RESIDE ACROSS THE AREA. NOTE THAT TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BEGIN COOLING MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT...CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION MOVE INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER...RECORDS ON THOSE DAYS
COMPARED TO FORECASTS SUGGEST POTENTIAL TO BREAK THEM.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
303 AM CDT FRI MAR 16 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...DAS
CLIMATE....AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
628 AM CDT FRI MAR 16 2012
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...WHILE A STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHES
ACROSS IOWA AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS TO LOW PRESSURE OVER SE ONTARIO.
SKIES ARE CLEAR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...THOUGH LOW STRATUS IS
STARTING TO EXPAND NORTHWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF LAKE
MICHIGAN. MAY HAVE TO MAKE A LAST MINUTE ADJUSTMENT BASED ON LATEST
TRENDS OF THIS STRATUS. SOME CONVECTION IS STARTING TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT OVER IOWA BUT WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
KEEP IT SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY. AS THIS FRONT RETURNS NORTH TODAY
AND TONIGHT...LOW CHANCES OF PRECIP ARE THE PRIMARY
CONCERN...FOLLOWED CLOSELY BY TEMPS.
TODAY...STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHING ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA AND
ILLINOIS WILL BEGIN TO RETURN NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT TODAY AND
WILL BISECT WISCONSIN FROM NW TO SE BY LATE IN THE DAY. PERSISTENT
EAST TO SE FLOW WILL EXIST NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY WHICH WILL PREVENT
THE FRONT FROM PUSHING INTO NE WISCONSIN. DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF
850MB MOISTURE ADVECTION AND FAIRLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...WILL HAVE SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVING IN ALOFT...THAT MAY
ENHANCE THE CAP MORE THAN WHAT THE NAM IS SHOWING ON PROGGED
SOUNDINGS. KTOP AND KSGF ARE ALSO SHOWING FAIRLY PRONOUNCED CAPPING
IN PLACE. SO WILL STICK WITH A DRY FORECAST WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE LOW 60S NE TO LOW 70S SW...LOCALLY COOLER NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN.
TONIGHT...SW FLOW CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN ALOFT WHICH WILL PUSH THE
FRONT THROUGH ALL BUT FAR NE WISCONSIN WHERE SE WIND WILL KEEP THE
SHALLOW MARINE LAYER IN PLACE. PROGGED SOUNDINGS INDICATE FAIRLY
SUBSTANTIAL ELEVATED CAPE DEVELOPING WITHIN THE LLJ AXIS OVER
CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY 06Z...TO THE TUNE OF 1100
J/KG IN THE GFS AND 2500 J/KG IN THE NAM WITHOUT MUCH CIN. NOT
ENTIRELY CONFIDENT IN THIS INSTABILITY MATERIALIZING FOR THE REASONS
MENTIONED ABOVE (STRONG CAP ON SOUNDINGS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS).
BUT EVEN WITH THIS INSTABILITY...TOUGH TO FIND A TRIGGER TO INITIATE
CONVECTION. DO SEE THE POSSIBILITY OF A WEAK WAVE MAKING IT TO
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND IOWA LATE...BUT IT MAY BE A TAD TOO FAR AWAY
FOR ANY IMPACT IF THE MODELS HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON IT (NOT SURE OF
THAT EITHER). SO WILL GO DRY FOR THE FORECAST. NOT EXPECTING MUCH
FOG CONCERNS EITHER DUE TO THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. LOWS
RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.
SATURDAY...THE WARM FRONT FINALLY CLEARS THE ENTIRE AREA ON SATURDAY
WITH WINDS TURNING TO THE SOUTH. SHOULD SEE A VERY WARM DAY PENDING
CLOUDS AND PRECIP. IF THAT WAVE IS ACTUALLY PRESENT...IT WILL PASS
ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND COULD INTERACT WITH ELEVATED
INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND STORMS. AS A RESULT...DO NOT
HAVE A CONVINCING ARGUMENT TO REMOVE POPS. TEMPS WILL SOAR BACK
INTO THE 70S EVERYWHERE.
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THRU THURSDAY. MAIN FORECAST
CHALLENGES REMAIN HOW WARM WILL TEMPS CAN GET SUNDAY-TUESDAY...FOG
POTENTIAL...AND PRECIP CHANCES.
MODELS REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE WEST COAST...AND
UPPER RIDGING DOMINATES THE EASTERN U.S. MODELS BEGIN TO DIFFER BY
MID-WEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH CUTS OFF AND DRIFTS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
MANY RECORD HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SHATTERED OVER THE WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL USHER IN WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. 850/925 TEMPS SUPPORT MID/UPPER 70S FOR
CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WI ON SUNDAY...AND LOW/MID 70S NORTH. SOME
SPOTS MAY TOUCH THE 80 DEGREE MARK ACROSS CENTRAL WI! MAYBE
SLIGHTLY COOLER ON MONDAY...BUT STILL VERY WARM. MORE CLOUDS AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ALOFT FOR TUESDAY...BUT TEMPS STILL EXPECTED
TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S NORTH AND LOW/MID 70S SOUTH. THE COOL
WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL KEEP THINGS MUCH COOLER ALONG THE
LAKESHORE AND NEAR THE BAY OF GREEN BAY THROUGH THE PERIOD. RECORD
HIGH MINIMUMS WILL LIKELY BE SHATTERED AS WELL IN MANY SPOTS...
WITH LOWS AT NIGHT ONLY FALLING INTO THE 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS
AWAY FROM THE LAKE AND FAR NORTHERN WI. SURFACE WINDS BACK TOWARD
THE SE EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING THE COOLER TEMPS AT THE
LAKESHORE A LITTLE FARTHER INLAND ACROSS FAR EASTERN WI.
PRECIP CHANCES STILL CHALLENGING THROUGH THE EXTENDED AS QUESTIONS
REMAIN REGARDING TIMING/LOCATION OF WEAK DISTURBANCES ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE RIDGE...AND TIMING THE UPPER TROUGH MID-WEEK. SATURDAY
NIGHT IS THE FIRST PERIOD OF CONCERN. GFS/NAM DIFFER ON AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY ALOFT...WITH THE GFS SHOWING VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES. ECMWF/GEM FAVOR THE GFS. MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN
NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...VERY WEAK SHEAR...PLUS STILL NO CLEAR
TRIGGER FOR PRECIP ACTIVITY TO FIRE ON...WITH MODELS ONLY SHOWING
A FEW WEAK VORT MAXES. MAJORITY OF MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SHOW
SOME PRECIP SATURDAY NIGHT...SO FEEL THE NEED TO KEEP SOME SLIGHT
POPS IN THE GRIDS. MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP FOG EACH NIGHT...AS
DEWPOINTS CREEP TOWARD 60. WILL ADD FOG TO LAKE MICHIGAN AND NEAR
THE LAKESHORE...MAINLY ALONG DOOR COUNTY...AS COOLER WATERS SHOULD
ENHANCE FOG POTENTIAL...BUT HOLD OFF ON ANY FOG MENTION ELSEWHERE.
WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS
THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. EVEN THE PRECIP
HAPPY MODELS KEEP THINGS DRY! SOME DISAGREEMENT ON HOW FAST TO
BRING THE CHANCE FOR PRECIP INTO THE AREA AS THE UPPER TROUGH
ADVANCES SLOWLY EASTWARD. PREFER A SLOWER SOLUTION...SO WILL KEEP
THE FORECAST DRY ACROSS EASTERN WI THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WILL HOLD
ON TO SOME LOW CHANCE POPS FOR CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WI WHICH
WILL BE A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE APPROACHING TROUGH. WILL NOT BRING
HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA UNTIL WEDNESDAY...AS THE UPPER
TROUGH FINALLY PUSHES CLOSE ENOUGH...AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND COLD
FRONT PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO INCREASE RAIN/STORM
CHANCES.
&&
.AVIATION...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND ACROSS ALL BUT FAR NE WISCONSIN TONIGHT. NO
LONGER ANTICIPATING MUCH FOG...BUT LOW STRATUS HAS BEEN EXPANDING
OVER SE WISCONSIN AND INTO THE FOX VALLEY. SHOULD CONTINUE TO DO
THROUGH MID-MORNING SO HAVE ADDED BKN MVFR CONDITIONS AT ATW.
POTENTIAL TO GET INTO GRB TOO. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. THINK WILL SEE SOME SCT-BKN CLOUDS ROLL IN WITH
THE APPROACH OF THE WARM FRONT. SHOWER CHANCES TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
MPC
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
422 PM EDT FRI MAR 16 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE EXITS NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE THIS WEEKEND. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST...WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH MUCH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WITH WET WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WITH A STRONGER DISTURBANCE
EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ARE MOVING THROUGH
EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AND WILL EXIT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS
STILL SOME RESIDUAL INSTABILITY LEFT BEHIND AND HRRR INDICATING
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP LATE AFTERNOON IN THE
INTERIOR AS THE SHORTWAVE SWINGS THROUGH...OTHERWISE TREND WILL BE
FOR DECREASING POPS INTO THIS EVENING. SHORTWAVE MOVES OFFSHORE
TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE REGION. GOOD MID
LEVEL DRYING TONIGHT MAY LEAD TO PARTIAL CLEARING...BUT THERE IS
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO SUPPORT AREAS OF STRATUS AND PATCHY
FOG. MIN TEMPS ARE TRICKY DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE EXTENT OF
CLOUD COVER. WE USED A BLEND OF THE BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE TO
DERIVE MIN TEMPS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY...
PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BURN OFF DURING THE
MORNING...OTHERWISE MOSUNNY SKIES EXPECTED AS HIGH PRES BUILDS
OVER SNE. LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP COOLEST TEMPS ACROSS E
COASTAL MA AND CAPE/ISLANDS WHICH WILL BE MOST IMPACTED BY MARINE
LAYER. MAXES SHOULD RANGE FROM NEAR 50 E COASTAL MA TO LOWER/MID
60S CT VALLEY.
SATURDAY NIGHT...
MOCLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WITH HIGH PRES IN CONTROL...BUT
CANT RULE OUT SOME LATE NIGHT RADIATION FOG DEVELOPING IN THE
INTERIOR. DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP
BACK THROUGH THE 30S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* A MILD PERIOD /ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS/ WITH MAINLY SOUTHERLY FLOW
* WEAK DISTURBANCE CENTERED AROUND MONDAY WITH SHOWERY WEATHER PSBL
* MAIN SYSTEM LIFTS THRU THE RGN TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK
OVERVIEW...
A CHALLENGING FCST TO SAY THE LEAST WITH LOW CONFIDENCE THROUGHOUT.
MUCH OF THE LONG-TERM IS FOCUSED ON A WEAK DISTURBANCE OUT OF THE
CENTRAL PACIFIC /BECOMING BETTER SAMPLED BY UPR AIR OBS/ PROGRESSING
NEWD THRU THE LONGWAVE FLOW REGIME OVER THE MID-MS VLY OVER THE
WEEKEND...INTO THE NERN CONUS BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. A
COMPLICATED PATTERN EVOLVES AS THE DISTURBANCE IS TIED UP BETWEEN
AN UPR LVL LOW IN PROXIMITY TO BERMUDA AND AMPLIFIED RIDGING AHEAD
OF A DEEPENING SYS THRU THE CENTRAL CONUS. WHILE THE 16/12Z FCST
PACKAGE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PRESENCE OF THE WEAK
DISTURBANCE...ITS EVOLUTION AND POTENTIAL WOBBLE AROUND THE MID-
ATLANTIC THROWS A GIANT WRENCH IN CERTAIN OUTCOMES FOR DAY 3-6
FCST. WITH THIS WEAK SYS...THERE ARE SEVERAL QUESTIONS...SUCH AS
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AND LIFT. ATTENDANT CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL
ULTIMATELY IMPACT THE LOW-LVL PROFILE AND SFC TEMPS KEEPING THINGS
COOLER /MAINLY AROUND THE MONDAY/. THE SYS ITSELF MAY KEEP THE
BETTER THERMAL AXIS N AND W OF THE FCST RGN. BUT AT THE SAME TOKEN
THE WAA AHEAD OF THE STRONG SYS THRU THE CENTRAL CONUS ACTING TO
INCREASE MID-LVL RIDGING ALONG AND AHEAD MAY IN TURN RESULT IN A
GREATER INFLUENCE OF DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE...ALBEIT BRIEFLY AS
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OF THE WARM/MOIST CONVEYOR BELT AHEAD OF THE
SYS WILL SHIFT EWD AS THE SYS EJECTS THRU THE RGN BY THE END OF
THE WEEK. CONCISE THOUGHTS ARE DISCUSSED BELOW.
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...
SFC HIGH PRES S AND E OF THE FCST AREA SHOULD MAINTAIN A HOLD ON THE
AREAS WX KEEPING IT DRY AND MILD. DO NOT BELIEVE SW FLOW WILL BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO RESTRICT SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE E SHORE /ALTHO THIS
IS POORLY REFLECTED IN THE FCST GRIDS/. MOSTLY CLEAR INITIALLY...
WITH INCREASING CLOUDS LATE. HIGHS AROUND THE UPR 60S WITH A MILD
NGT AROUND THE MID 40S.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...
WEAK DISTURBANCE WOBBLES THRU THE RGN. WILL GO WITH SLGT CHC POPS
WITH NO THUNDER MAINLY FOR S NEW ENGLAND WHERE BEST LIFT AND
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY SHOULD RESIDE. KEPT SFC TEMPS LOW /LOW-MID 60S
FOR HIGHS/ WITH MODEST DWPTS AROUND 50 DEGREES. WILL NEED TO WATCH
MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS N AND E WITH A POTENTIAL SFC LOW THRU SRN NEW
ENGLAND USHERING NELY FLOW ALONG ERN SHORES.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...
WEAK DISTURBANCE WOBBLES S WHILE SEEMINGLY OVERCOME AND DEAMPLIFIED
WITH ENHANCED BROAD RIDGING OVER THE ERN CONUS. WILL KEEP FCST DRY
YET WITH REMNANT LOW-LVL MOISTURE WILL HINT AT SOME DIURNAL CU WITH
HIGHS AROUND THE LOW 70S /COOLER ALONG THE SHORE/. SW FLOW AND
RENEWED WAA ALOFT. MILD NGT WITH LOWS AROUND 50 DEGREES.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
WEAK DISTURBANCE BEGINS TO LIFT BACK N. WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS INTO THE LATE PD. WARMER AIR BUILDING ALOFT WITH SW FLOW.
HIGHS AROUND THE LOW-MID 70S WITH MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS...ANOTHER
MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS DOWN TO THE LOW 50S.
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...
SW FLOW AMPLIFIES AHEAD OF THE SYS ACTING TO INCREASE THE ISENTROPIC
FLOW OF WARM/MOIST AIR FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. ANTICIPATE
INCREASING DIURNAL CU THRU THE RGN WITH THE APPROACHING SYS OUT OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SOME MAJOR UNDERLYING QUESTIONS AS TO THE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE SYS COUPLED WITH THE FACT WHETHER IT WILL
EVOLVE AS A BROADER TROF...OR A SPLIT FLOW REGIME WITH CLOSED H5 LOW
THRU THE AREA. WILL ONLY SPECULATE FOR NOW THAT COME FRI INTO THE
WEEKEND THAT THE SYS SHOULD MIGRATE THRU THE RGN WITH THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND PSBL THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT
MODERATE...30 PERCENT TO 60 PERCENT
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT
THROUGH 00Z...WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AND LOCAL MVFR VSBYS IN BRIEF
RAIN SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION 18-21Z. IFR CIGS MAY
DEVELOP ALONG THE S COAST.
TONIGHT...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WE EXPECT AREAS OF STRATUS
AND FOG...BUT UNSURE OF EXTENT AND DURATION OF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS. TAFS HAVE MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS WITH AREAS OF IFR
CAPE/ISLANDS.
SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. PATCHY MVFR/IFR EARLY...OTHERWISE
VFR.
SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MOSTLY VFR...BUT PATCHY
LATE NIGHT MVFR/IFR STRATUS/FOG POSSIBLE IN THE INTERIOR.
KBOS TERMINAL...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. EXPECT MAINLY
MVFR CIGS THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE CONDITIONS IMPROVE
TO VFR DURING TONIGHT. VFR SAT WITH SEABREEZES DEVELOPING BY
MIDDAY.
OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...
MODERATE CONFIDENCE VFR. SW FLOW WITH THE ANTICIPATION OF MOSTLY
CLEAR CONDITIONS.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...
MODERATE CONFIDENCE MVFR-VFR. WEAK DISTURBANCE THRU THE RGN WITH LGT
AND VRB FLOW. MAY SEE NELY FLOW ALONG THE E SHORE USHERING LOW CIGS
AND PSBL FOG IMPACTS OFF THE GULF OF ME. -SHRA EXPECTED FOR
TERMINALS LOCATED ACROSS W AND S FCST AREA.
TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY...
MODERATE CONFIDENCE VFR. ENHANCING SW FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
SYS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. LIKELY TO BE DEALING WITH 20-25 KT SWLY
GUSTS. INCREASING CLOUDS THRU THE PD. WILL NEED TO WATCH THE ONSHORE
FLOW FOR THE S TERMINALS AND WHETHER THERE MAY BE CIG AND VSBY
IMPACTS AS COOLER AIR COMES ASHORE OFF THE WATERS.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THROUGH SAT NIGHT AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. SEAS OVER THE EASTERN WATERS ARE STILL
HOVERING CLOSE TO 5 FT BUT WILL BE SUBSIDING. THE ONLY CONCERN
IS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY DENSE FOG TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
SUNDAY INTO THURSDAY...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADV THRESHOLDS.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TOWARDS THE LATER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR THE FOUR MAJOR CLIMATE SITES ACROSS THE REGION
FOR NEXT WEEK...
SUN (18) / MON (19) / TUE (20) / WED (21)
TEMP (YEAR)
BOSTON 70 (2011)/ 72 (1903)/ 79 (1945)/ 83 (1921)
WINDSOR LOCKS 71 (2011)/ 73 (2010)/ 81 (1945)/ 82 (1921)
PROVIDENCE 73 (2011)/ 69 (2010)/ 83 (1945)/ 84 (1921)
WORCESTER 65 (1999)/ 71 (1894)/ 77 (1945)/ 71 (1921)
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...KJC/SIPPRELL
MARINE...KJC/SIPPRELL
CLIMATE...WFO BOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
322 PM EDT FRI MAR 16 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE EXITS NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE THIS WEEKEND. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST...WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH MUCH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ARE MOVING THROUGH
EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AND WILL EXIT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS
STILL SOME RESIDUAL INSTABILITY LEFT BEHIND AND HRRR INDICATING
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP LATE AFTERNOON IN THE
INTERIOR AS THE SHORTWAVE SWINGS THROUGH...OTHERWISE TREND WILL BE
FOR DECREASING POPS INTO THIS EVENING. SHORTWAVE MOVES OFFSHORE
TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE REGION. GOOD MID
LEVEL DRYING TONIGHT MAY LEAD TO PARTIAL CLEARING...BUT THERE IS
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO SUPPORT AREAS OF STRATUS AND PATCHY
FOG. MIN TEMPS ARE TRICKY DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE EXTENT OF
CLOUD COVER. WE USED A BLEND OF THE BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE TO
DERIVE MIN TEMPS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY...
PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BURN OFF DURING THE
MORNING...OTHERWISE MOSUNNY SKIES EXPECTED AS HIGH PRES BUILDS
OVER SNE. LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP COOLEST TEMPS ACROSS E
COASTAL MA AND CAPE/ISLANDS WHICH WILL BE MOST IMPACTED BY MARINE
LAYER. MAXES SHOULD RANGE FROM NEAR 50 E COASTAL MA TO LOWER/MID
60S CT VALLEY.
SATURDAY NIGHT...
MOCLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WITH HIGH PRES IN CONTROL...BUT
CANT RULE OUT SOME LATE NIGHT RADIATION FOG DEVELOPING IN THE
INTERIOR. DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP
BACK THROUGH THE 30S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW VERY GOOD CONTINUITY AND
CONSISTENCY WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF FULL LATITUDE LONG WAVE TROUGH
ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. WITH RESPONDING LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME. SURFACE FEATURES ACROSS THE EAST LOOK GOOD AS WELL
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEN SOME CHANGES AROUND MONDAY AS MODELS
TRY TO BRING A BACKDOOR FRONT DOWN THE COAST. HOWEVER...HIGH PRES
POSITIONS OFF THE MID ATLC COAST...WHICH SHOULD HOLD OFF THIS FRONT
ACROSS MAINE AND EASTERN CANADA. LOOKS LIKE MORE DRY WEATHER WITH A
MODERATING TREND MOVING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH NEAR
RECORD TEMPS POSSIBLE. BY LATE NEXT WEEK...COLD FRONT MAY WORK DOWN
OUT OF EASTERN CANADA...BUT TIMING IS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION THIS FAR
OUT.
SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...LARGE HIGH PRES WILL BUILD OUT OF QUEBEC AS
LOW PRES MOVES OFFSHORE. THIS WILL KEEP EASTERN AREAS CHILLY WITH
NE-E FLOW WITH LEFTOVER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND GENERALLY LIGHT
WINDS. WILL SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN
AREAS SAT NIGHT UNTIL AROUND MID MORNING SUNDAY WHICH MAY BECOME
LOCALLY DENSE AT TIMES. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS EXCEPT FOR
PATCHY LOW CLOUDS WHERE FOG DEVELOPS. TEMPS WILL FALL BACK TO THE
30S...THEN WILL REBOUND DURING SUNDAY AFTER THE FOG BURNS OFF.
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE 50S ALONG THE S COAST TO AROUND 60
ALONG THE E COAST WITH ONSHORE FLOW...RANGING TO THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S INLAND. RECORD HIGHS WILL INLAND ARE POSSIBLE.
SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...HIGH PRES WILL BUILD OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COAST DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. WITH LIGHT FLOW IN
PLACE...ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE CAPE COD COAST AS WELL AS CT VALLEY MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
THROUGH MID MORNING MONDAY. LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME S-SW. EXPECT
ANOTHER MILD DAY INLAND...BUT WILL REMAIN COOLER ALONG THE COAST.
BACKDOOR FRONT TRIES TO WORK DOWN THE COAST OUT OF MAINE AND
SOUTHERN QUEBEC...BUT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL REMAIN WELL N OF THE REGION
AS THE HIGH ORIENTS TO THE S HOLDING THE FRONT AT BAY. EXPECT HIGHS
ON MONDAY RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S ALONG THE COAST
RANGING TO THE LOWER 70S INLAND.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...LOOKS LIKE THIS WILL BE THE MILDEST PART
OF THE FORECAST AS HIGH PRES CENTERS OFF THE MID ATLC COAST WHILE
UPPER RIDGE TAKES UP RESIDENCE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S.
THIS IS MORE OF A SUMMER TYPE PATTERN IN PLACE RATHER THAN EARLY
SPRING...WITH WARM AIR WORKING INTO THE REGION ON W-SW WINDS. NOTING
A PROLONGED DRY PERIOD...WITH ONLY LIGHT RAINFALL OVER THE LAST
COUPLE OF WEEKS...SO WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL
ESPECIALLY LATER WED AND THU AS W WINDS PICK UP. EXPECT HIGHS
REACHING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S EACH DAY...MILDEST FORECAST FOR
THURSDAY...THOUGH WILL REMAIN COOLER ALONG THE SOUTH COAST WITH
ONSHORE WINDS AND SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING ALONG THE EAST COASTAL
AREAS.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT
MODERATE...30 PERCENT TO 60 PERCENT
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT
THROUGH 00Z...WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AND LOCAL MVFR VSBYS IN BRIEF
RAIN SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION 18-21Z. IFR CIGS MAY
DEVELOP ALONG THE S COAST.
TONIGHT...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WE EXPECT AREAS OF STRATUS
AND FOG...BUT UNSURE OF EXTENT AND DURATION OF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS. TAFS HAVE MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS WITH AREAS OF IFR
CAPE/ISLANDS.
SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. PATCHY MVFR/IFR EARLY...OTHERWISE
VFR.
SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MOSTLY VFR...BUT PATCHY
LATE NIGHT MVFR/IFR STRATUS/FOG POSSIBLE IN THE INTERIOR.
KBOS TERMINAL...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. EXPECT MAINLY
MVFR CIGS THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE CONDITIONS IMPROVE
TO VFR DURING TONIGHT. VFR SAT WITH SEABREEZES DEVELOPING BY
MIDDAY.
OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. PATCHY LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING FOG ACROSS CT VALLEY AND S COASTAL MA/RI EACH DAY WITH
MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS.
TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. PATCHY LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING FOG ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS WITH MVFR-IFR
CIGS/VSBYS.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THROUGH SAT NIGHT AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. SEAS OVER THE EASTERN WATERS ARE STILL
HOVERING CLOSE TO 5 FT BUT WILL BE SUBSIDING. THE ONLY CONCERN
IS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY DENSE FOG TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES ACROSS THE WATERS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR THE FOUR MAJOR CLIMATE SITES ACROSS THE REGION
FOR NEXT WEEK...
SUN (18) / MON (19) / TUE (20) / WED (21)
TEMP (YEAR)
BOSTON 70 (2011)/ 72 (1903)/ 79 (1945)/ 83 (1921)
WINDSOR LOCKS 71 (2011)/ 73 (2010)/ 81 (1945)/ 82 (1921)
PROVIDENCE 73 (2011)/ 69 (2010)/ 83 (1945)/ 84 (1921)
WORCESTER 65 (1999)/ 71 (1894)/ 77 (1945)/ 71 (1921)
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...KJC/EVT
MARINE...KJC/EVT
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
137 PM EDT FRI MAR 16 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS. TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND
WILL BE UNSEASONABLY MILD WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 115 PM EDT...THE LATEST KENX AND MOSAIC RADAR TRENDS HAVE
THE BAND OF SHOWERS WITH THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MAINLY EAST OF A
KDDH-KPSF-KPOU AXIS. THE RUC HAS THE SFC WAVE OVER NRN NEW
ENGLAND AND SE QUEBEC. THE COLD FRONT REMAINS UPSTREAM OVER
W-CNTRL NY AND PA. THE RUC40 ALSO SHOWS THE H500 UPPER TROUGH
AXIS JUST DOWNSTREAM OF THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION. WE CONTINUED
AND ISOLD-SCT THREAT OF A SHOWER UNTIL THE UPPER TROUGH AND COLD
FRONT MOVE EAST OF THE REGION IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. THE POP TRENDS WERE REDONE BASED ON THE RADAR TRENDS.
THUNDER WAS ALSO REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST...AS THE AIR MASS IS
TOO STABLE FROM THE RAIN COOLED AIR...AND THERE HAS BEEN A PAUCITY
OF CG LTG STRIKES. THE NAM/RUC GUIDANCE SHOWS LESS ELEVATED
INSTABILITY OVER THE REGION THIS CYCLE TOO.
FINALLY..THERE ARE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER OVER N-CNTRL
PA...AND CNTRL NY. THIS PARTIAL CLEARING MAY GET INTO THE FCST
AREA AFTER 4 PM. HOWEVER...THE RAIN COOLED AIR HAS KEPT TEMPS DOWN
TODAY. WE LOWERED MAX TEMPS EVEN FURTHER WITH 50-55F READINGS IN
THE VALLEYS...ERN CATSKILLS...AND LITCHFIELD HILLS...AND MID AND
U40S OVER THE MTNS...LAKE GEORGE REGION...AND EAST OF THE SRN
GREENS MTNS.
HOURLY T/TD/RH/APPARENT TEMPS TRENDS WERE ALSO DONE BASED ON THE OBSERVATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BIG BUBBLE NO TROUBLE FOR THE SHORT TERM AS THE COMBINATION OF
INCREASING SURFACE PRESSURES AND RISING HEIGHTS SHOULD RESULT IN
AMPLE AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE. THERE COULD BE SOME FOG FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING DUE TO THE PREVIOUS RAINFALL.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD CONTINUE
ABOVE NORMAL WITH VALLEY TEMPS MAINLY 60S ON SATURDAY AND INTO THE
LOWER 70S ON SUNDAY GIVEN IDEAL MIXING CONDITIONS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECT MAINLY DRY AND VERY MILD CONDITIONS DURING THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. THERE STILL MAY BE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DURING
THE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME...HOWEVER IT IS BECOMING
LESS CERTAIN IF THIS WILL EVEN IMPACT THE FA. THEREFORE WILL GO
WITH A DRY FORECAST AT THIS TIME AS A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE FA THROUGH MID WEEK. TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE VERY MILD GENERALLY AVERAGING AS MUCH AS 25 TO 30
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECT HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S TO
UPPER 70S WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/..
STEADY RAINFALL HAS MOVED EAST OF THE REGION AND AWAY FROM THE
HUDSON VALLEY TAF SITES. WHILE A STRAY RAIN SHOWER/SPRINKLE CANNOT
BE TOTALLY RULED DUE TO THE UPPER TROUGH ALOFT...IT SHOULD BE RAIN
FREE THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...PLENTY OF LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP LOW STRATUS AROUND FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS...ESP AT KALB/KPOU. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS SUGGESTS THAT CIGS
SHOULD FINALLY RISE TO MVFR LEVELS BY THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO MOVE IN FOR THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW CLOUDS TO SCT OUT. HOWEVER...WITH THE
WET GROUND FOR THE RECENT RAINFALL...A DEVELOPING STRONG INVERSION
WILL PROMOTE RADIATIONAL FOG IN DEVELOPING...ESP FOR KGFL. IFR
CONDITIONS LOOK TO DEVELOP AT ALL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH
IT MAY BE TAKE UNTIL THE LATE NIGHT HOURS FOR THE IFR TO SET IN AT
KALB. ONE FACTOR MAY BE JUST HOW QUICKLY IT CLEAR THIS EVENING. IF
THE CURRENT STRATUS/STRATOCU TAKES LONGER TO CLEAR OUT...IT MAY
DELAY THE RADIATIONAL FOG FROM DEVELOPING BY A FEW HOURS...SO THE
TIMING OF FOG FOR TONIGHT IS ONLY A LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.
AFTER SUNRISE ON SATURDAY...FOG WILL DISSIPATE BY MID
MORNING...WITH CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING TO ALL
TERMINALS.
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY 10 KTS
OR LESS. WINDS WILL GO CALM OR VERY LIGHT /3 KTS OR LESS/ AT ALL
SITES OVERNIGHT. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY FOR
SATURDAY...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT AT ALL SITES.
OUTLOOK...
SAT-SUN NT...VFR. NO SIG WX.
MON-MON NT...VFR/MVFR. SLGT CHC -SHRA/-TSRA.
TUE-WED...VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH SHOWERS AND SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL KEEP HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL VARY WITH AMOUNTS GENERALLY BETWEEN ONE QUARTER TO
ONE HALF INCH. DRIER WEATHER RETURNS LATE TODAY WHICH WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE COULD BE SOME FOG FRIDAY NIGHT AS
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES CLIMB TOWARD 100 PERCENT.
WEEKEND MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DO DROP BELOW 50
PERCENT...HOWEVER...WINDS REMAIN LIGHT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGY PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
RAINFALL EXPECTED OVER THE ENTIRE HSA IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
QUARTER INCH TO HALF INCH RANGE...WITH THE LOWER AMOUNTS IN THE SRN
REACHES OF THE HSA...AND THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OVER THE WRN MOHAWK
VALLEY...AND THE SRN DACKS. SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION. THE NORTHEAST RIVER FORECAST CENTER
QPF WAS UTILIZED IN THE FIRST 48 HOURS OF THE FORECAST.
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AND INTO MOST OF NEXT
WEEK. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT REMAIN IN THE SRN
DACKS...AND SRN GREENS BASED ON THE LATEST DATA FROM THE NOHRSC.
THE WARM AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FROM THE WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK WILL PRODUCE A GRADUAL SNOW MELT WITH MAX TEMPS WELL
ABOVE NORMAL...BUT MINS IN THE 30S TO L40S.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM/WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
129 PM EDT FRI MAR 16 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS. TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND
WILL BE UNSEASONABLY MILD WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 115 PM EDT...THE LATEST KENX AND MOSAIC RADAR TRENDS HAVE
THE BAND OF SHOWERS WITH THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MAINLY EAST OF A
KDDH-KPSF-KPOU AXIS. THE RUC HAS THE SFC WAVE OVER NRN NEW
ENGLAND AND SE QUEBEC. THE COLD FRONT REMAINS UPSTREAM OVER
W-CNTRL NY AND PA. THE RUC40 ALSO SHOWS THE H500 UPPER TROUGH
AXIS JUST DOWNSTREAM OF THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION. WE CONTINUED
AND ISOLD-SCT THREAT OF A SHOWER UNTIL THE UPPER TROUGH AND COLD
FRONT MOVE EAST OF THE REGION IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. THE POP TRENDS WERE REDONE BASED ON THE RADAR TRENDS.
THUNDER WAS ALSO REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST...AS THE AIR MASS IS
TOO STABLE FROM THE RAIN COOLED AIR...AND THERE HAS BEEN A PAUCITY
OF CG LTG STRIKES. THE NAM/RUC GUIDANCE SHOWS LESS ELEVATED
INSTABILITY OVER THE REGION THIS CYCLE TOO.
FINALLY..THERE ARE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER OVER N-CNTRL
PA...AND CNTRL NY. THIS PARTIAL CLEARING MAY GET INTO THE FCST
AREA AFTER 4 PM. HOWEVER...THE RAIN COOLED AIR HAS KEPT TEMPS DOWN
TODAY. WE LOWERED MAX TEMPS EVEN FURTHER WITH 50-55F READINGS IN
THE VALLEYS...ERN CATSKILLS...AND LITCHFIELD HILLS...AND MID AND
U40S OVER THE MTNS...LAKE GEORGE REGION...AND EAST OF THE SRN
GREENS MTNS.
HOURLY T/TD/RH/APPARENT TEMPS TRENDS WERE ALSO DONE BASED ON THE OBSERVATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BIG BUBBLE NO TROUBLE FOR THE SHORT TERM AS THE COMBINATION OF
INCREASING SURFACE PRESSURES AND RISING HEIGHTS SHOULD RESULT IN
AMPLE AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE. THERE COULD BE SOME FOG FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING DUE TO THE PREVIOUS RAINFALL.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD CONTINUE
ABOVE NORMAL WITH VALLEY TEMPS MAINLY 60S ON SATURDAY AND INTO THE
LOWER 70S ON SUNDAY GIVEN IDEAL MIXING CONDITIONS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECT MAINLY DRY AND VERY MILD CONDITIONS DURING THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. THERE STILL MAY BE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DURING
THE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME...HOWEVER IT IS BECOMING
LESS CERTAIN IF THIS WILL EVEN IMPACT THE FA. THEREFORE WILL GO
WITH A DRY FORECAST AT THIS TIME AS A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE FA THROUGH MID WEEK. TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE VERY MILD GENERALLY AVERAGING AS MUCH AS 25 TO 30
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECT HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S TO
UPPER 70S WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FOR THIS MORNING EXPECT MAINLY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AT THE TAF
SITES THROUGH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES MOVES INTO NEW YORK STATE EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT SHOWERS TO REACH THE TAF
SITES BTWN 13Z AND 16Z...BEGINNING FIRST AT KGFL AND LAST AT KPOU
AS THE PCPN IS MOVING MORE QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST THAN TO THE
EAST. AT THIS TIME WILL LEAVE THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF TAFS AS THE
LIGHTNING TO THE WEST HAS DIMINISHED GREATLY AND ML MUCAPES
CONTINUE TO INDICATE LESS INSTABILITY ACROSS THE HUDSON VALLEY.
ONCE THE SHOWERS END ARND MID AFTERNOON EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
AT ALL SITES BY 20Z AND THEN FOG DEVELOPING AT THE TAF SITES
LATER THIS EVENING WITH IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS...EXCEPT LIKELY
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AT KGFL.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SOUTHEAST OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH
THIS MORNING...EXCEPT AT KALB WHERE CHANNELING OF SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL RESULT IN SOUTH WINDS AT 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SW-W AT 4-8 KTS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH WINDS THIS EVENING EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
OUTLOOK...
SAT-SUN NT...VFR. NO SIG WX.
MON-MON NT...VFR/MVFR. SLGT CHC -SHRA/-TSRA.
TUE...VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH SHOWERS AND SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL KEEP HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL VARY WITH AMOUNTS GENERALLY BETWEEN ONE QUARTER TO
ONE HALF INCH. DRIER WEATHER RETURNS LATE TODAY WHICH WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE COULD BE SOME FOG FRIDAY NIGHT AS
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES CLIMB TOWARD 100 PERCENT.
WEEKEND MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DO DROP BELOW 50
PERCENT...HOWEVER...WINDS REMAIN LIGHT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGY PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
RAINFALL EXPECTED OVER THE ENTIRE HSA IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
QUARTER INCH TO HALF INCH RANGE...WITH THE LOWER AMOUNTS IN THE SRN
REACHES OF THE HSA...AND THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OVER THE WRN MOHAWK
VALLEY...AND THE SRN DACKS. SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION. THE NORTHEAST RIVER FORECAST CENTER
QPF WAS UTILIZED IN THE FIRST 48 HOURS OF THE FORECAST.
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AND INTO MOST OF NEXT
WEEK. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT REMAIN IN THE SRN
DACKS...AND SRN GREENS BASED ON THE LATEST DATA FROM THE NOHRSC.
THE WARM AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FROM THE WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK WILL PRODUCE A GRADUAL SNOW MELT WITH MAX TEMPS WELL
ABOVE NORMAL...BUT MINS IN THE 30S TO L40S.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM/WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
136 PM EDT FRI MAR 16 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD AND
DISSIPATE OVER THE REGION SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REGAIN
CONTROL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FAIR WEATHER IN PROGRESS. DIURNAL HEATING WAS SLOWED SOME EARLIER
TODAY MY MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS...BUT GOOD DIURNAL HEATING EXPECTED
FOR THE REST OF TODAY. MODELS INDICATING SOME SHOWER OR POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FOR LATE TODAY. DISCREPANCIES CONTINUE TO BE
NOTED BETWEEN NAM AND GFS. LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE AN
ATMOSPHERE THAT IS STILL FAIRLY DRY OVER OUR FORECAST AREA CURRENTLY
WITH A LITTLE BIT OF A LOW LEVEL CAP...AND A FAIRLY HIGH LEVEL OF
FREE CONVECTION. LOCAL WRF RUN INDICATING SOME CONVECTION COULD
DEVELOP. THINK SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE SHOWERS...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE
THUNDER...LOOKS REASONABLE FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED
SHOWERS IN THE EVENING OTHERWISE PARTLY CLOUDY AND MOS
TEMPERATURES LOOK OK.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE AS A WEAK UPPER RIDGE REMAINS
IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN STATES. THE SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE
WEAK SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE OVER THE WEEKEND. A BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS AND
MAY BECOME A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION. AIR MASS WILL BE WEAKLY TO
MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER AN INCH. KEPT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY DIURNAL.
LARGE SPREAD IN THE POP GUIDANCE AND CONFIDENCE LOW...BUT BELIEVE
NORTHERN AREAS SHOULD SEE THE MOST COVERAGE.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
THROUGH THE LONG TERM. ANOMALOUSLY HIGH HEIGHTS WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. ENSEMBLE POPS ARE AT OR
BELOW AVERAGE...SO WILL KEEP THE FORECAST MAINLY DRY. HIGHS IN
THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. LOWS IN THE 50S.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
TONIGHT...OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS OR A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM THAT
COULD DEVELOP. CONFIDENCE OF CONVECTION AFFECTING THE TERMINALS NOT
SUFFICIENT TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. FOG POTENTIAL
TONIGHT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER. ANY LINGERING MID TO HIGH
LEVEL CLOUD COVER FROM CONVECTION TO OUR WEST WOULD WORK AGAINST
FOG. WILL FORECAST MVFR VSBYS FOR NOW...KEEPING IN MIND LOWER IFR
VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AT FOG PRONE AGS/OGB. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTER ANY MORNING FOG BURNS OFF. ANY
CONVECTION SATURDAY WILL BE AFTER 18Z.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR IN LATE
NIGHT/MORNING FOG THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS OR A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
554 PM EDT FRI MAR 16 2012
.Update...
Issued at 654 PM EDT Fri Mar 16 2012
Showers have developed over the west central portion of the CWA with
MCV that is slowly rotating through western Kentucky. A look at
forecast soundings shows that updrafts should struggle above 15-20 K
feet as thermal profile warms significantly above this level. Do not
expect much more than a few moderate showers mainly across central
Kentucky, although cannot rule out an isolated thunderstorm or two.
Have tweaked pops just a bit through the overnight hours with the
potential for a scattered line of mainly showers to develop over the
Bowling Green region and lift northeastward from 06 to 12z. Models
disagree on the timing with NAM/GFS more toward dawn, however higher
res HRRR which has current situation handled well begins precip just
after 06 z. The main culprit appears to be some weak isentropic
lift with a weak low level jet. Will monitor trends and update
timing as needed. Otherwise, the rest of the forecast looks on track
at this point.
.Short Term (Tonight through Saturday Night)...
Updated at 255 PM EDT Mar 16 2012
Meso low continues to spin just to our west, now with a surface
reflection in latest MSAS analysis. Fortunately for us, persistent
cloud cover for most of the day so far has inhibited convection over
our CWA. Western Kentucky has been clearer though, and that area now
is seeing some convections, with cells initiating over eastern PAH`s
forecast area. Temperatures are climbing over the western forecast
area, so should start seeing some action there a little later this
afternoon, especially as that low drifts eastward.
Beyond this afternoon and through Saturday night, the atmosphere
will remain plenty moist for additional shower and storm
development. Confidence in timing/location still is not high though.
Precipitable waters will be above an inch. Will have multiple
perturbations in the flow aloft coming across the region, which will
enhance development, especially should these come during any peak
heating times. Given the moist atmosphere, diurnal temperature
swings should be short, and expect readings well above normal for
mid March. Going for lows each night around 60 and highs generally
in the upper 70s.
.Long Term (Sunday - Friday)...
Updated at 255 PM EDT Mar 16 2012
For Sunday, another shortwave in the upper level flow will cross the
Ohio Valley. The models are still having a bit of a hard time with
the timing and the placement of this feature. This will impact how
widespread storms become on Sunday. For now we will continue to
carry a 30-40% chance for thunderstorms. Soundings do become
relatively unstable during the day so a few of these storms may
become strong. These will be the pulse type like we have seen the
last couple of days, with hail being the main threat.
For the beginning of the work week, a highly amplified ridge will
build over the area. This will lead to partly cloudy skies and dry
weather Monday through Tuesday. At the surface, winds will remain
out of the south. Unseasonably warm temperatures will continue with
a shot at breaking some record highs Sunday through Monday.
Current records and forecast temps for Sun/Mon/Tues:
ASOS Sun(3/18) Mon(3/19) Tues(3/20)
Record/Forecast:
SDF 82(1982)/81 83(1907)/83 85(1894)/82
LEX 79(1982)/79 79(1945)/81 81(1894)/81
BWG 87(1908)/82 86(1907)/83 85(1921)/82
FFT 80(1908)/80 81(1948)/82 82(1921)/81
We will see a big change in the weather for the second half of the
week. A large upper level low will approach and cross the region
Wednesday through Friday. Clouds will be on the increase on
Wednesday, keeping temperatures a few degrees cooler than the
previous days. Rain from this system looks to move in Wednesday
night with showers and thunderstorms continuing into Friday as the
low slowly crosses the region. Temperatures will be much cooler
Thursday and Friday. Despite this, temps will remain above normal
for this time of year with highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s and
lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s.
&&
.Aviation (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Updated at 130 PM EDT Mar 16 2012
Unsettled weather continues across the region ahead of a mid level
low just to our west. Persistent cloud cover through the morning has
limited instability this morning and likely will keep thunder to a
minimum this afternoon. Have warmer weather to the west, which
likely will cause some storms to develop out there that could move
into the TAF sites later. Timing still a question mark, but given
above normal moisture in the atmosphere and presence of upper
forcing, will keep in vicinity shower chances through the period and
modify as activity becomes more focused. Winds are expected to be
light, but will pick up more steadily from the south during the day
Saturday.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
$$
Update...........BJS
Short Term.......RJS
Long Term........EER
Aviation.........RJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
1204 PM EDT FRI MAR 16 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON,
AND PASS TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. A MASSIVE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRY AIR WILL BUILD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY,
THEN SETTLE TO OUR SOUTHEAST SUNDAY. A WEAKENING DISTURBANCE
MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING CLOUDS AND SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD, BRINGING SUNNY SKIES AND
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
NOON...SURFACE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN MAINE
MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS WILL BE SLOW TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING...AND
POCKETS OF LIGHT ICING WILL CONTINUE THERE NEXT FEW HOURS. HAVE
EXTENDED THE FREEZING RAIN ADV THERE TIL 20Z...AND LET IT EXPIRE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
935 AM...GIVEN MESONET TEMPERATURES AND RADAR TRENDS I DECIDED TO
EXTEND THE PRESENT ADVISORY UNTIL 16Z FOR THE CURRENT ADVISORY
AREA. OTHERWISE...GIVEN FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND UPSTREAM ACTIVITY
ON RADAR MOSAIC HAVE INCLUDED THUNDER IN THE GRIDS FOR LATER
TODAY. 1ST PERIOD GRIDS WERE LARGELY ADJUSTED BASED ON MESONET AND
RADAR TRENDS. HAV A GUD DAY.
PREV DISC...
WILL CONTINUE THE FRZG RAIN ADVISORIES FOR WRN..CNTRL AND ERN INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF MAINE THRU MID MRNG. WITH THE WAA PATTERN SPRDG ACRS THE
REGION RADAR SHOWS LGT STRATIFORM RN SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA FM
W-E. TEMPS BLO FREEZING OVER MOST OF WRN/CNTRL AND ERN INTERIOR
MAINE THIS MORNING SO SOME LGT FRZG RAIN TO CAUSE SOME PROBLEMS
EARLY THIS MORNING. TEMPS OVER MANY OF THE ADVSRY AREAS A FEW DEGS
BLO THE 32 DEG MARK. ELSEWHERE IN NH AND SRN AND CSTL ME TEMPS
NOW ABV FREEZING AND SLOWLY WARMING. THE FIRST BATCH OF LGT PCPN
MOVES THRU ERLY THIS MRNG AS PER HRRR SUGGESTS AND THEN ANOTHER
BATCH LATER IN THE MRNG AND ERLY AFTN BUT BY THEN ALL SFC TEMPS TO
BE WELL ABV FRZG. USED A BLEND OF THE MAV/MET GUID.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
LIGHT RAIN COMES TO AN END BY ERLY EVNG FOLLOWED BY CLEARING AS
HIGH PRES GRDLY BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE SUNNY
AND WARMER AS H85 TEMPS DURING THE AFTN REACH +6 TO +8C. HIGH PRES
CRESTS AND BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE AREA SO WINDS WILL BE NIL.
WITH TEMPS REACHING INTO THE 60S...AN AFTN SEA BREEZE CAN BE
EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST. STAYED CLOSE WITH GUID FOR MAX TEMPS WITH
A BIAS TO THE MAV.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS RIDGING BUILDS
OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD. MODEL GUIDANCE IS EXCESSIVELY COOL ON MIN
TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SLIGHTLY TOO COOL ON MAX
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE AFTER
COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING NWS OFFICES.
A WEAKENING DISTURBANCE TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ON
MONDAY...BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THAN SUNDAY
AND SOME MORE CLOUDS. ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY THE RIDGE STRONGLY
RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF WITH TEMPERATURES TOUCHING THE LOWER 70S IN
INTERIOR SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW HAMPSHIRE AND INTERIOR
SOUTHWESTERN MAINE. THIS IS SOME 25F ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. MODEL CONSISTENCY BREAKS DOWN A BIT FOR THURSDAY AS THE
WESTERLIES BEGIN TO SAG TOWARD NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...BREAKING
DOWN THE RIDGE AND THE PERIOD OF ABNORMALLY WARM WEATHER.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MVFR TO IFR CONDS TODAY IN LIGHT RAIN...DURING THE
ERLY MRNG HRS SOME FRZG RN EXPECTED OVER MOST CENTRAL AND WRN
AREAS OF MAINE AND NRN NH. BY TNGT CONDS IMPROVE TO VFR FM NW-SE.
LONG TERM...EXTENDED PERIOD OF VFR EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...HIGH PRES SETTLES OVER THE WATERS WITH VERY LITTLE PRES
GRADIENT SO WINDS/SEAS TO BE MINIMAL THRU SATURDAY. NO FLAGS.
LONG TERM...WINDS AND WAVES EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MEZ008-009-013-014.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
ES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
333 PM CDT FRI MAR 16 2012
.DISCUSSION...
WARM FRONT GENERALLY BISECTING THE CWA IN HALF ON AN EAST-WEST
LINE. CU FIELD WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 55 TO 60 RANGE HAS ALSO PUSHED
INTO SOUTHERN MN. MIXED LAYER CAPE AROUND 2500 J/KG OVER NORTHEAST
IA INTO SOUTHEAST MN WITH VERY LITTLE CIN. 850 MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT DIRECTED MAINLY TOWARD WI AT THIS TIME. A WEAK WAVE
INDICATED IN WV IMAGERY MOVING ENE ACROSS NEB MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH
LIFT FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TSTM OVER SE MN. CURRENTLY A FEW
CELLS OVER SE WI. WILL DECIDE AT THE LAST MINUTE TO INCLUDE A
MENTION IN WEST CENTRAL WI FOR THE EVENING. OTHERWISE...THIS
MAYBE THE ONLY CHANCE UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...OR MORE LIKELY
MONDAY BEFORE WE GET A TRIGGER FOR ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT. THE LOW
LEVEL BOUNDARY WILL HAVE RETREATED INTO NORTHERN MN SO MOST OF
OUR AREA WILL BE IN A WARM SECTOR WITH MAINLY A THICKNESS RIDGE
EXTENDING OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS.
THE OTHER CONCERN TONIGHT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS DEVELOPMENT
LATER.. THERE WAS A LARGE AREA OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG OVER KANSAS
AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA THIS MORNING AND WITH THE CONTINUED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT...WE SHOULD SEE SOME OF SAME OVER PARTS
OF THE AREA INTO MID MORNING SATURDAY. MAX TEMPS MIGHT BE A COUPLE
DEGREES DOWN IN A FEW SPOTS BUT NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM TODAY. IN
FACT...WE SHOULD SEE SIMILAR TEMPS ON SUNDAY AS WELL.
THERE IS REASONABLE AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF OF AN
IMPULSE MOVING NNW OUT OF THE LONG WAVE TROF POSITION FOR MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD GIVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO TUESDAY. IT LOOKS LIKE A LONG
FETCH OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND THE GEFS IS SHOWING A RATHER LARGE
AREA OF PRECIPITABLE WATER ANOMALIES OF AT LEAST 3 SD ABOVE NORMAL
FROM SOUTHERN CANADA INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON MONDAY. SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL IN QUESTION WITH NOT MUCH DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. THE
BETTER POTENTIAL WOULD BE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AS THE NOSE OF
THE STRONGER UPPER JET EMERGES.
&&
.AVIATION.../18Z TAF ISSUANCE/
WARM FRONT BASICALLY ALONG I-94 NOW WILL CONTINUE LIFTING NORTH
THIS AFTERNOON. FAIRLY MOIST/UNSTABLE AND RELATIVELY UNCAPPED
ENVIRONMENT LIFTING NORTH OUT OF IOWA BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS WOULD
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR TSRA ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THE LACK OF A TRIGGER /SFC OR ALOFT/ PRECLUDED ANY SORT
OF CB OR THUNDER MENTION IN ANY OF THE TAFS. LOOKING AT H85
MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE...WRN WI
TERMINALS WOULD BE MOST AT RISK FOR AN ISO TSRA THIS AFTERNOON.
THERE IS AN AREA OF MORE ACCUS TYPE CLOUD COVER NEAR CEDAR
RAPIDS...THAT BASED ON THE LOCAL WRF AND HRRR REFLECTIVITY COULD
BE A SOURCE FOR ANY CONVECTION TODAY...SO WILL MONITOR CLOSELY.
FOR TONIGHT...THE BIG ISSUE WILL BE EXPECTED FOG/STRATUS. NAM
REVERSE TRAJECTORY FROM MSP SHOWED LOW LEVEL AIR SAT MORNING
ORIGINATING FROM ERN KS THIS MORNING...WHERE LIFR STRATUS WITH IFR
VIS WAS COMMON. EXPECT THIS TO BE THE CASE HERE SAT MORNING. GIVEN
THE STRONG GRADIENT EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE
NIGHT...SHOULD SEE 5-10KT SE WINDS THAT WILL KEEP THE THREAT MORE
OF A STRATUS ONE TONIGHT...AS WAS SEEN IN ERN KS THIS MORNING.
TIMED THE CLOUDS IN OFF THE NMM/ARW HI RES FORECASTS...WHICH
BRINGS STRATUS UP OUT OF IA AFTER 06Z. IF THIS SCENARIO WORKS
OUT...RWF/MSP/EAU WOULD BE THE FIRST TO EXPERIENCE THE
STRATUS...WITH IT NOT GETTING UP TO AXN/STC UNTIL CLOSER TO 12Z.
ASSUMING CLOUDS ARE IN PLACE...WILL TAKE MOST OF THE MORNING TO
GET BACK TO SCT/SKC CONDITIONS.
KMSP...BEGINNING TO SEE CU FORM NOW...THOUGH NOT EXPECTING MUCH
MORE THAN SCT AT 050. MAY SEE ISOLD TSRA DEVELOP LATER THIS
AFTERNOON FROM SE MN INTO WRN WI...BUT ANY ACTIVITY WOULD LIKELY
REMAIN EAST OF THE FIELD. LOW LEVEL RH CERTAINLY LOOKS TO BE HIGH
ENOUGH FOR FOG/STRATUS TONIGHT...THOUGH THERE HAS BEEN A TENDENCY
THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS FOR MODELS TO OVER DO THINGS. GIVEN LOW
LEVEL MIXING...NOT EXPECTING DENSE FG LIKE THE GFSLAMP HAS...BUT
GFSLAMP TIMING FOR FG MAY NOT BE BAD FOR WHEN ANY POTENTIAL
STRATUS WILL ARRIVE. ASSUMING WE GET THE STRATUS...COULD TAKE A
WHILE TO CLEAN IT OUT...AS EVEN AT 18Z...A LARGE BATCH OF 010-015
CIGS STILL REMAINS ACROSS ERN KS. WINDS WILL REMAIN BTWN 180 AND
140 THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH GUSTS OVER 20KTS LIKELY SAT
AFTERNOON AS PRESSURE GRADIENT SLOWLY STRENGTHENS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
//OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SUN...VFR.
.MON THRU TUE...CHC SHRA/TSRA AS FRONT SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH.
.WED...VFR.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
JPR/MPG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
136 PM CDT FRI MAR 16 2012
.UPDATE...
18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION ADDED BELOW.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
MORE RECORD MAX TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BY THE WAYSIDE
TODAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND AS UNPRECEDENTED MARCH HEAT WAVE
CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK. AVERAGE TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS WILL BE ABOUT 25 TO 35 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD DURING THE PERIOD...AS
SURFACE DEWPOINTS SURGE INTO THE 50S.
THE LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL...SHOWED A VERY WAVY PATTERN IN THE MID
LEVEL AND HINT AT 500 MB TOO. SATELLITE IMAGERY OFF THE IR LOOP
SHOWED SOME CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. MODELS SHOWED SOME
INSTABILITY OVER EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WISCONSIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
BY MID AFTERNOON...INHIBITION IS WEAK OVER THIS AREA. ANY UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE ASSOCIATED WITH LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER WESTERN U.S.
COULD TRIGGER SOME WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS...WILL DEEPEN OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S...FOCUSING
ANY SHORT WAVE ENERGY OVER THE ROCKIES AND WESTERN PLAINS.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE AS THE UPPER TROUGH STARTS TO MOVE EAST INTO THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR WITH MAXS IN THE 60S AND 70S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S.
&&
.AVIATION.../18Z TAF ISSUANCE/
WARM FRONT BASICALLY ALONG I-94 NOW WILL CONTINUE LIFTING NORTH
THIS AFTERNOON. FAIRLY MOIST/UNSTABLE AND RELATIVELY UNCAPPED
ENVIRONMENT LIFTING NORTH OUT OF IOWA BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS WOULD
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR TSRA ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THE LACK OF A TRIGGER /SFC OR ALOFT/ PRECLUDED ANY SORT
OF CB OR THUNDER MENTION IN ANY OF THE TAFS. LOOKING AT H85
MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE...WRN WI
TERMINALS WOULD BE MOST AT RISK FOR AN ISO TSRA THIS AFTERNOON.
THERE IS AN AREA OF MORE ACCUS TYPE CLOUD COVER NEAR CEDAR
RAPIDS...THAT BASED ON THE LOCAL WRF AND HRRR REFLECTIVITY COULD
BE A SOURCE FOR ANY CONVECTION TODAY...SO WILL MONITOR CLOSELY.
FOR TONIGHT...THE BIG ISSUE WILL BE EXPECTED FOG/STRATUS. NAM
REVERSE TRAJECTORY FROM MSP SHOWED LOW LEVEL AIR SAT MORNING
ORIGINATING FROM ERN KS THIS MORNING...WHERE LIFR STRATUS WITH IFR
VIS WAS COMMON. EXPECT THIS TO BE THE CASE HERE SAT MORNING. GIVEN
THE STRONG GRADIENT EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE
NIGHT...SHOULD SEE 5-10KT SE WINDS THAT WILL KEEP THE THREAT MORE
OF A STRATUS ONE TONIGHT...AS WAS SEEN IN ERN KS THIS MORNING.
TIMED THE CLOUDS IN OFF THE NMM/ARW HI RES FORECASTS...WHICH
BRINGS STRATUS UP OUT OF IA AFTER 06Z. IF THIS SCENARIO WORKS
OUT...RWF/MSP/EAU WOULD BE THE FIRST TO EXPERIENCE THE
STRATUS...WITH IT NOT GETTING UP TO AXN/STC UNTIL CLOSER TO 12Z.
ASSUMING CLOUDS ARE IN PLACE...WILL TAKE MOST OF THE MORNING TO
GET BACK TO SCT/SKC CONDITIONS.
KMSP...BEGINNING TO SEE CU FORM NOW...THOUGH NOT EXPECTING MUCH
MORE THAN SCT AT 050. MAY SEE ISOLD TSRA DEVELOP LATER THIS
AFTERNOON FROM SE MN INTO WRN WI...BUT ANY ACTIVITY WOULD LIKELY
REMAIN EAST OF THE FIELD. LOW LEVEL RH CERTAINLY LOOKS TO BE HIGH
ENOUGH FOR FOG/STRATUS TONIGHT...THOUGH THERE HAS BEEN A TENDENCY
THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS FOR MODELS TO OVER DO THINGS. GIVEN LOW
LEVEL MIXING...NOT EXPECTING DENSE FG LIKE THE GFSLAMP HAS...BUT
GFSLAMP TIMING FOR FG MAY NOT BE BAD FOR WHEN ANY POTENTIAL
STRATUS WILL ARRIVE. ASSUMING WE GET THE STRATUS...COULD TAKE A
WHILE TO CLEAN IT OUT...AS EVEN AT 18Z...A LARGE BATCH OF 010-015
CIGS STILL REMAINS ACROSS ERN KS. WINDS WILL REMAIN BTWN 180 AND
140 THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH GUSTS OVER 20KTS LIKELY SAT
AFTERNOON AS PRESSURE GRADIENT SLOWLY STRENGTHENS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
//OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SUN...VFR.
.MON THRU TUE...CHC SHRA/TSRA AS FRONT SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH.
.WED...VFR.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
JVM/MPG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1258 PM CDT FRI MAR 16 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1122 AM CDT FRI MAR 16 2012
APPEARS WEAK W 850MB FLOW CONTINUES TO TRANSPORT UNSTABLE AIR OVER
RAIN-COOLED AIRMASS CENTERED ON THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AROUND
STL...AND AS MORE SHOWERS FORM RAIN-COOLED AMS IS MAINTAINING ITS
IDENTITY. NOT CERTAIN HOW LONG THIS SELF-SUSTAINING PROCESS IS
GOING TO CONTINUE...AND NO GUIDANCE IS OFFERING MUCH OF A
CLUE...BUT CLIMATOLOGICALLLY SPEAKING THIS PROCESS SHOULD SHUT
DOWN HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON. ALSO WONDER IF ADDITIONAL STORMS
WILL TRY TO FORM FURTHER W ALONG SURFACE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. RUC IS
INDICATING SFC CONVERGENCE OF THIS MODERATLY UNSTABLE AMS...AND
HAVE BUMPED UP POPS JUST A BIT FROM E OZARKS TO NEAR UIN TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
FORECAST UPDATED TO RELFECT ABOVE TRENDS.
TRUETT
&&
.SHORT TERM...
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT FRI MAR 16 2012
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
MAIN CONCERN DEALS WITH RAIN CHANCES THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE SHOWN A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN
AREAL EXTENT AND INTENSITY IN THE PAST TWO HOURS. MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE VORTEX HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST WHICH IS LIKELY
CAUSING SOME WEAK SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE. NEW CONVECTION IS NOW
PROPAGATING SOUTHWESTWARD OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI WHERE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY IS INTERSECTING THE LOW LEVEL JET. CONWAY PROFILER HAS
SHOWN SOME VEERING OF THE 850MB WIND WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO
SHIFT THE FOCUS OF NEW CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
CWA THE REST OF THE MORNING.
CONFIDENCE IN THE CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION TODAY AND TONIGHT IS NOT
HIGH AS FORCING WILL BE RATHER NEBULOUS. UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WITH TIME AND DO NOT SEE ANY VORT LOBES OR OTHER
FORCING THAT STANDS OUT DURING THE PERIOD. THE GFS AND LOCAL WRF
DOES SHOW THAT MLCAPES WILL CLIMB BACK INTO THE 1000-2000 J/KG
RANGE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MINIMAL CINH. COULD SEE ISOLD OR SCT
THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY ONCE THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES MORE
UNSTABLE. FOCUS MAY OCCUR ON ANY RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES OVER
THE AREA. WHILE EXTENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY NOT BE AS GREAT
AS YESTERDAY...THERE MAY STILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED HAIL
PRODUCING STORMS GIVEN THE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE
7-8C/KM RANGE.
ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO THINK WE ARE ALREADY IN MAY OR JUNE GIVEN
THAT THE CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 50-LOWER 60S. SEE
NO REASON THAT TEMPERATURES WON`T BE ABLE TO GET BACK INTO THE
LOWER 80S AGAIN TODAY GIVEN THE WARM START AND PARTIAL SUNSHINE
LATER TODAY.
BRITT
&&
.LONG TERM...
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT FRI MAR 16 2012
(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
BOTH THE GFS/LOCAL WRF ARE SHOWING THAT THERE WILL BE INCREASED
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE COINCIDENT WITH WEAK ASCENT CAUSED
BY A WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT WILL MOVE OVER THAT AREA ON SATURDAY. WILL
MAINTAIN THE HIGH CHANCE POPS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING. HERE
AGAIN THINK THAT ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
BECAUSE OF THE STEEP LAPSE RATES. SUNDAY THEN LOOKS DRY AS
SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT AND BEST LOW LEVEL FORCING SHIFTS WEST OVER
THE PLAINS. SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS FAVOR GOING AT OR
ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT UPPER FLOW WILL AMPLIFY
SIGNIFICANTLY NEXT WEEK AND THAT MO/IL WILL LIE BETWEEN A
RETREATING UPPER RIDGE AND DEEPENING TROUGH THAT WILL EVENTUALLY
ENTER THE GREAT PLAINS. THERE IS ENOUGH AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE
GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN GEM TO GO WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DURING MID
WEEK. TEMPERATURES SHOWING A COOLING TREND WITH THE RAIN AND A
COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE WEST...BUT EVEN THESE TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.
BRITT
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT FRI MAR 16 2012
ELEVATED STORMS THAT HAVE BEEN PARKED ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
NEAR STL AREA THROUGHOUT THE MORNING HAVE BEEN IN THE PROCESS OF
WEAKENING OVER THE LAST 45 MINUTES OR SO...AND BELIEVE THIS
DOWNWARD TREND SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.
MEANWHILE...IN THE PRISTINE AIR OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE
CWA...CU HAS BEGUN TO BUBBLE WITH THE DIURNAL HEATING. MAIN
QUESTION FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING IS IF AND/OR WHERE ADDITIONAL
STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR. STILL SEEING SUBTLE CONVERGENCE
BETWEEN RAIN COOLED AMS CENTERED ALONG RIVER AND UNSEASONABLY WARM
TEMPS OVER MID MO...AND BELIEVE THIS MAY BE AN AREA OF FOCUS.
RIGHT NOW...THIS AXIS IS BETWEEN ALL TAF SITES SO ONCE ONGOING
PRECIP WINDS DOWN OVER STL AREA ADDITIONAL PRECIP THREAT FOR THE
AFTERNOON WILL BE HANDLED BY CB CLOUD GROUP...AND WILL ATTEMPT TO
REFINE FORECAST SPECIFICS ONCE STORM DEVELOPMENT DOES OCCUR.
IF STORMS DO HAVE A DIURNAL MAXIMUM...FROM MID EVENING ON THE
NIGHT SHOULD BE FAIRLY TRANQUIL. ONLY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER WILL BE
SOME MVFR VSBYS THAT FORM IN THE SUS AND CPS AREAS DURING THE
PREDAWN HOURS WHERE WINDS WILL TEND TO DECOUPLE.
SPECIFICS FOR KSTL...
PRECIP THAT HAS BEEN LOCKED NEAR MISSISSIPPI RIVER CONTINUES TO
DIMINISH...AND IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE IT LOOKS LIKE THREAT
WITH ONGOING ACTIVITY WILL END BY 19Z. BIGGER QUESTION IS WHERE
THE TSRA THREAT WILL BE LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND AS MENTIONED
ABOVE BEGINNING TO FOCUS ON AREA BETWEEN COU AND STL. FOR
NOW...PAST 19Z WILL HIGHLIGHT TS THREAT WITH CB CLOUD GROUP...AND
REFINE TRENDS IF/WHEN STORMS DO REDEVELOP. FOR THE MOST PART IT
WOULD APPEAR CIGS WILL BE AOA 5KFT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH CLOUDS
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT WITH LOSS OF HEATING.
TRUETT
&&
.CLIMATE...
HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH MAXIMUM AND HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
FOR KSTL AND KCOU FOR TODAY (03/16).
KSTL
DAY DATE HI MAX YEAR HI MIN YEAR
FRI 03/16 86F 1945 57F 1919
KCOU
DAY DATE HI MAX YEAR HI MIN YEAR
FRI 03/16 87F 1945 55F 1945
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1131 AM CDT FRI MAR 16 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1122 AM CDT FRI MAR 16 2012
APPEARS WEAK W 850MB FLOW CONTINUES TO TRANSPORT UNSTABLE AIR OVER
RAIN-COOLED AIRMASS CENTERED ON THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AROUND
STL...AND AS MORE SHOWERS FORM RAIN-COOLED AMS IS MAINTAINING ITS
IDENTITY. NOT CERTAIN HOW LONG THIS SELF-SUSTAINING PROCESS IS
GOING TO CONTINUE...AND NO GUIDANCE IS OFFERING MUCH OF A
CLUE...BUT CLIMATOLOGICALLLY SPEAKING THIS PROCESS SHOULD SHUT
DOWN HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON. ALSO WONDER IF ADDITIONAL STORMS
WILL TRY TO FORM FURTHER W ALONG SURFACE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. RUC IS
INDICATING SFC CONVERGENCE OF THIS MODERATLY UNSTABLE AMS...AND
HAVE BUMPED UP POPS JUST A BIT FROM E OZARKS TO NEAR UIN TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
FORECAST UPDATED TO RELFECT ABOVE TRENDS.
TRUETT
&&
.SHORT TERM...
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT FRI MAR 16 2012
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
MAIN CONCERN DEALS WITH RAIN CHANCES THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE SHOWN A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN
AREAL EXTENT AND INTENSITY IN THE PAST TWO HOURS. MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE VORTEX HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST WHICH IS LIKELY
CAUSING SOME WEAK SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE. NEW CONVECTION IS NOW
PROPAGATING SOUTHWESTWARD OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI WHERE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY IS INTERSECTING THE LOW LEVEL JET. CONWAY PROFILER HAS
SHOWN SOME VEERING OF THE 850MB WIND WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO
SHIFT THE FOCUS OF NEW CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
CWA THE REST OF THE MORNING.
CONFIDENCE IN THE CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION TODAY AND TONIGHT IS NOT
HIGH AS FORCING WILL BE RATHER NEBULOUS. UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WITH TIME AND DO NOT SEE ANY VORT LOBES OR OTHER
FORCING THAT STANDS OUT DURING THE PERIOD. THE GFS AND LOCAL WRF
DOES SHOW THAT MLCAPES WILL CLIMB BACK INTO THE 1000-2000 J/KG
RANGE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MINIMAL CINH. COULD SEE ISOLD OR SCT
THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY ONCE THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES MORE
UNSTABLE. FOCUS MAY OCCUR ON ANY RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES OVER
THE AREA. WHILE EXTENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY NOT BE AS GREAT
AS YESTERDAY...THERE MAY STILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED HAIL
PRODUCING STORMS GIVEN THE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE
7-8C/KM RANGE.
ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO THINK WE ARE ALREADY IN MAY OR JUNE GIVEN
THAT THE CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 50-LOWER 60S. SEE
NO REASON THAT TEMPERATURES WON`T BE ABLE TO GET BACK INTO THE
LOWER 80S AGAIN TODAY GIVEN THE WARM START AND PARTIAL SUNSHINE
LATER TODAY.
BRITT
&&
.LONG TERM...
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT FRI MAR 16 2012
(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
BOTH THE GFS/LOCAL WRF ARE SHOWING THAT THERE WILL BE INCREASED
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE COINCIDENT WITH WEAK ASCENT CAUSED
BY A WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT WILL MOVE OVER THAT AREA ON SATURDAY. WILL
MAINTAIN THE HIGH CHANCE POPS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING. HERE
AGAIN THINK THAT ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
BECAUSE OF THE STEEP LAPSE RATES. SUNDAY THEN LOOKS DRY AS
SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT AND BEST LOW LEVEL FORCING SHIFTS WEST OVER
THE PLAINS. SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS FAVOR GOING AT OR
ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT UPPER FLOW WILL AMPLIFY
SIGNIFICANTLY NEXT WEEK AND THAT MO/IL WILL LIE BETWEEN A
RETREATING UPPER RIDGE AND DEEPENING TROUGH THAT WILL EVENTUALLY
ENTER THE GREAT PLAINS. THERE IS ENOUGH AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE
GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN GEM TO GO WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DURING MID
WEEK. TEMPERATURES SHOWING A COOLING TREND WITH THE RAIN AND A
COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE WEST...BUT EVEN THESE TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.
BRITT
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 534 AM CDT FRI MAR 16 2012
MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED WELL S OF THE TAF SITES
EARLY THIS MRNG WITH JUST ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS OVER OUR AREA.
HIGH LEVEL CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEBRIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO THIN OUT.
DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS MRNG INTO THE AFTN
AS THE MOIST ATMOSPHERE BECOMES MORE UNSTABLE WITH DAYTIME
HEATING. UNCERTAINTY WITH THE AMOUNT OF COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY BUT IT SHOULD BE LESS THAN YESTERDAY. MAY INCLUDE CB IN THE
CLOUD GROUPS IN THE TAFS THIS AFTN...PARTICULARLY THE STL AREA
TAFS. IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST COVERAGE WILL BE S OF THE TAF
SITES WITH THE STL AREA HAVING THE BEST CHANCE OF STORMS THIS AFTN
COMPARED WITH THE REST OF THE TAF LOCATIONS. SLY SFC WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORCAST PERIOD.
SPECIFICS FOR KSTL...MAY NEED TO INCLUDE VCSH OR VCTS DURING THE
INITIAL COUPLE OF HOURS OF THE STL TAF AS THE RADAR WAS DETECTING
ISOLATED SHOWERS JUST E OF STL. DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL
DEVELOP THIS MRNG...BECOMING BKN EARLY THIS AFTN AROUND 4000-5000
FT. WILL CONTINUE CB IN THE CLOUD GROUP FOR THIS AFTN WITH AT
LEAST WIDELY SCATTERED AFTN STORMS EXPECTED. S-SW WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 9 KTS THIS AFTN...THEN DIMINISH TGT FROM A
S-SELY DIRECTION.
GKS
&&
.CLIMATE...
HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH MAXIMUM AND HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
FOR KSTL AND KCOU FOR TODAY (03/16).
KSTL
DAY DATE HI MAX YEAR HI MIN YEAR
FRI 03/16 86F 1945 57F 1919
KCOU
DAY DATE HI MAX YEAR HI MIN YEAR
FRI 03/16 87F 1945 55F 1945
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
1021 AM MDT FRI MAR 16 2012
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SAT...
ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY IS ON THE WAY THANKS TO MIXING IN ADVANCE OF
A RELATIVELY WEAK COLD FRONT. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALL SUPPORT
MIXING TO AT LEAST 700 HPA TODAY...WHICH WILL PROVIDE HIGHS IN THE
70S F IN MANY AREAS. LIKE WAS THE CASE ON THURSDAY...ONCE WE START
SIGNIFICANT MIXING...TEMPERATURES AND WINDS ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL
RAMP UP QUICKLY IN AS LITTLE AS AN HOUR. THAT SHOULD OCCUR NEAR 18
UTC BASED ON PERSISTENCE FROM YESTERDAY AND THE 12 UTC RUC AND NAM
FORECAST SOUNDINGS. BUFKIT-BASED MOMENTUM TRANSFER TOOLS SUGGEST A
PEAK WIND IN THE MIXED LAYER OF 30 TO 40 KT...SO GUSTS OF AT LEAST
30 MPH SHOULD BE IN THE CARDS. A RED FLAG WARNING IS THUS IN PLACE
TO COVER THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THE GRASSLANDS.
ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO TODAY/S FORECAST...MAINLY TO RAISE
HIGHS JUST BIT OVER SOUTHEASTERN MT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY
OF A BIT DEEPER MIXING THAN EXPECTED. WE ARE CALLING FOR A HIGH OF
77 F AT MILES CITY...WHICH IS ONE DEGREE SHY OF THEIR DAILY RECORD
SET IN 1994. SCHULTZ
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THOUGH
THERE ARE SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN PRECIP LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...MAINLY RESULTING FROM A STRONG UPSLOPE/LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE SIGNATURE IN THE 00Z GFS RUN THAT THE ECMWF DOES NOT
HAVE. AT ANY RATE...LOOK FOR CONDITIONS TO TURN COOLER AND WETTER
LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH
THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS TO SUPPORT ACCUMULATING SNOW.
ON SUNDAY AS A BROAD NEARLY NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. AS THIS BROAD TROUGH PUSHES EAST SUNDAY
WE WILL SEE AN INCREASING CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AS SHORT WAVES
WITHIN THE MEAN FLOW EJECT OUT FROM THE GREAT BASIN TOWARD THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS. CONTINUED THE TREND TO INCREASE
POPS IN THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES A BIT...ESPECIALLY BY
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING FRONTOGENESIS...UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE...INSTABILITY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR AN UPSLOPE
COMPONENT WITHIN THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT...WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND MOIST WRAPAROUND ALOFT IN THE
LOW LEVELS KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN AND SNOW IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AS SUCH...RAISED POPS A BIT ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY. TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE A TRANSITION DAY AS THE UPPER
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SLOWLY PUSHED EASTWARD BY A BUILDING RIDGE.
DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES. MODELS DIVERGE IN THEIR SOLUTIONS
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. WHEREAS THE GFS CONTINUES TO TREND TOWARDS
RIDGING ALOFT...THE ECMWF PUSHES A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS A
DRAMATIC CHANGE FROM ITS PREVIOUS SOLUTION OF A RIDGE DOMINATING
THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
ECMWF SOLUTION AT THIS POINT...KEPT TEMPS ON THE WARM SIDE WITH
JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MOUNTAIN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE RIDGE. STC
&&
.AVIATION...
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
SOUTH OF KLVM TODAY PRODUCING OCCASIONAL MOUNTAIN TOP OBSCURATIONS.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL OUR FORECAST TERMINALS
TODAY. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
GUSTING AS HIGH AS 45 KTS AT KLVM TODAY. WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS
EVENING BEHIND A COLD FRONT. BT
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 072 040/069 044/067 036/048 031/050 031/061 036/065
1/N 22/T 24/W 54/W 22/W 00/B 00/B
LVM 064 037/063 036/057 029/043 027/045 030/057 034/060
3/W 24/T 35/W 64/W 22/W 20/N 01/B
HDN 074 038/072 041/070 034/051 030/053 029/063 033/068
1/N 12/W 13/W 44/W 22/W 00/B 00/B
MLS 077 040/076 043/072 038/051 029/051 030/062 034/067
0/N 11/B 11/B 33/W 22/W 10/B 01/B
4BQ 076 040/075 044/074 036/051 030/050 030/062 034/067
0/N 01/N 01/N 24/W 22/W 11/B 11/B
BHK 077 039/075 044/075 040/053 028/046 029/060 035/065
0/N 11/N 01/B 23/W 22/W 11/B 11/B
SHR 075 037/074 041/067 032/047 028/048 027/059 030/063
1/N 11/B 22/W 34/W 32/W 00/B 01/B
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING BELOW
5000 FEET FOR ZONES 123>129.
RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
ZONES 130>133.
WY...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
ZONE 274.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1248 PM CDT FRI MAR 16 2012
.AVIATION...18Z KGRI TAF. LOW PRESSURE PASSING NEAR THE TAF
SITE...WILL HELP INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE PLAINS.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE SOUTH TO
AROUND 12 KTS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE REST OF
THE DAY. HOWEVER...THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE TAF SITE WILL BE THE
POSSIBILITY FOR VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS ON SUNDAY. FOG THIS MORNING WAS QUITE DENSE IN NATURE
ACROSS THE AREA...AND MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE SAME FOR
SUNDAY MORNING. THE GFS EVEN SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY OF DRIZZLE
ACROSS THE AREA. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THIS MORNING AND
TOMORROW MORNING WILL BE WIND SPEEDS. WIND SPEEDS THIS MORNING
WERE LIGHT AND CALM...WHEREAS...WINDS SPEEDS ACROSS THE REGION
TOMORROW SHOULD BE NEAR 12KTS WHICH WILL HELP INHIBIT FOG
FORMATION. ALSO WHILE IT REMAINS BORDERLINE...THE LOW LEVEL JET IS
EXPECTED TO KICK UP JUST EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT...CREATING
THE POTENTIAL FOR LLWS OVERNIGHT. DECIDED TO LEAVE IT OUT OF THE
TAF FOR NOW AS CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1054 AM CDT FRI MAR 16 2012/
UPDATE...
VISIBILITIES HAVE IMPROVED ACROSS THE AREA...THEREFORE THE DENSE
FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 729 AM CDT FRI MAR 16 2012/
UPDATE...AFTER WATCHING SEVERAL MORE AUTOMATED SITES CRASH TO 1/4
MILE OR LOWER VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WITHIN THE LAST 60-90
MINUTES...OPTED TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR ALL BUT THE FAR
NORTHERN CWA. ALTHOUGH THIS FOG IS RATHER SHALLOW IN NATURE...IT
IS CREATING CONSIDERABLE VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AT THE BUSY
MORNING COMMUTE TIME. THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE CWA IS LIKELY
NOT EXPERIENCING AS MUCH DENSE FOG...BUT WASN/T GOING TO GET TOO
CUTE AND TAKE ANY CHANCES LEAVING THESE COUNTIES OUT. BASED ON
LATEST HRRR VISIBILITY PROGS...DENSE FOG COULD BE QUITE STUBBORN
TO MIX OUT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA...ALTHOUGH FEEL THAT 16Z EXPIRATION OF HEADLINE SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT.
AVIATION...12Z KGRI TAF. THIS WILL BE A CHALLENGING 24 HOURS WITH
REGARD TO CEILING/VISIBILITY TRENDS. STARTING OUT RIGHT AWAY THIS
MORNING...SHALLOW DENSE FOG HAS SETTLED INTO THE AREA...AND COULD
LAST FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS BEFORE MIXING OUT TO VFR
VISIBILITY/CEILING BY LATE MORNING. THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS SHOULD REMAIN QUIET WITH A STEADY SOUTH BREEZE AROUND 12KT.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE DECREASES AGAIN DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS OR SO
OF THE PERIOD LATE TONIGHT...WITH VARIOUS MODELS SUGGESTING
ANOTHER ROUND OF POTENTIALLY DENSE FOG AND STRATUS. WITH BETTER
MIXING THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER DUE TO STEADY BUT LIGHT SOUTH
BREEZES...AM THINKING THAT STRATUS IS A MORE LIKELY BET THAN
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG. FOR NOW...HAVE STARTED THE TREND WITH AN
MVFR VSBY RESTRICTION AND AN IFR CEILING...BUT THIS LAST 6 HOURS IS
VERY SUBJECT TO CHANGE.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 431 AM CDT FRI MAR 16 2012/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE BIG STORY WILL
CENTER AROUND THE NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON AND
THEN THE CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY EVENING
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
TODAY...UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND THE UPPER JET STREAM WELL TO OUR NORTH. THE RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURE FOR TODAY IS 80 DEGREES IN GRAND ISLAND AND
KEARNEY...AND 79 DEGREES IN HASTINGS. WE WILL COME VERY CLOSE TO
BREAKING THESE RECORD HIGHS BY THIS AFTERNOON. SOME AREAS WILL
START OFF WITH FOG THIS MORNING...BUT THIS SHOULD QUICKLY SCATTER
OUT WITHIN A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE.
SATURDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE JUST AS WARM AS TODAY.
HOWEVER...THE RECORD HIGHS FOR SATURDAY ARE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER...WHICH WILL MAKE BREAKING THEM A LITTLE HARDER. THE RECORD
HIGH ON SATURDAY IS 83 DEGREES IN KEARNEY AND HASTINGS...BUT ONLY
81 DEGREES IN GRAND ISLAND. THESE RECORDS COULD AGAIN BE
THREATENED ESPECIALLY IN GRAND ISLAND. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE ON SATURDAY AND WILL BE A BIT GUSTY BY AFTERNOON. THE DRY
LINE WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS OUR WESTERN CWA ON SATURDAY BUT THERE
WILL NOT BE ENOUGH FORCING GIVEN THE RATHER STRONG CAP.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IF THE DRY LINE
DOES CREEP INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES. SEVERAL COUNTIES SUCH AS
DAWSON...GOSPER...AND FURNAS COULD BE ON THE VERGE OF MEETING RED
FLAG WARNING CRITERIA SATURDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD THE DRY LINE SLIP
FAR ENOUGH EAST AND DEW POINTS PLUMMET.
SUNDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS DEEP INTO THE ROCKIES AND
SOUTH WINDS BECOME EVEN MORE GUSTY OVER THE PLAINS OUT AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
AREA ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN CLIMB INTO THE UPPER
70S TO AROUND 80 BUT THE RECORDS FOR THIS DAY ARE IN THE MID 80S
AND SHOULD NOT BE TOO CLOSELY THREATENED. THE MAIN CONCERN ON
SUNDAY WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE
HIGH PLAINS BY LATE AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR SOME COOLING ALOFT.
HOWEVER...THE QUESTION IS WILL THE FORCING AND HEIGHT FALLS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MAKE IT FAR ENOUGH EAST TO GET US
CONVECTION BEFORE SUNSET ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND KANSAS.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT CONVECTION WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY AFTER
SUNSET AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THEREFORE...WILL ONLY BE
GOING WITH A RATHER WEAK SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON HOURS AND THEN A MODEST CHANCE OF STORMS
SUNDAY NIGHT. IF STORMS CAN FORM LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR SUNDAY NIGHT
THEY CERTAINLY COULD BECOME SEVERE GIVEN THE STRONG WIND SHEAR AND
WEAK TO MODEST INSTABILITY.
LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. BY FAR THE MAIN FOCUS OF THIS
FOUR DAYS IS THE EVOLUTION OF THE EXPANSIVE...DEEP UPPER TROUGH
TRANSLATING SLOWLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS...AND WHETHER ANY
CONVECTION IN THE MONDAY TIME FRAME MIGHT BE STRONG TO SEVERE.
STARTING OFF WITH MONDAY...LATEST 00Z RUNS OF THE ECMWF/GFS ARE IN
PRETTY DECENT AGREEMENT WITH LARGE SCALE FEATURES...WITH A NEUTRAL
TO SLIGHTLY NEGATIVELY TILTED 500MB VORT MAX CHARGING INTO WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE DAY...ON THE FRONT SIDE OF
THE PRIMARY TROUGH AXIS STRETCHED FROM MT TO NM. OBVIOUSLY FORCING
FOR ASCENT WILL BE CONSIDERABLE WITH A NEARLY MERIDIONAL 120+KT
300MB JET STREAK ALIGNED DIRECTLY OVER THE CWA IN THE AFTERNOON
HOURS PER THE ECMWF. IN GENERAL...THE EVOLVING THEME OVER LAST FEW
MODEL RUNS HAS BEEN FOR A FASTER PROGRESSION TO THE SURFACE
DRYLINE...WITH ECMWF/GFS GENERALLY AGREEING...FOR NOW ANYWAY...THAT
THE DRYLINE WILL RAPIDLY SURGE ACROSS THE CWA FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS/EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE A PRETTY GOOD BET DURING THE
DAY...WITH LIKELY POPS STILL FOCUSED ACROSS ROUGHLY THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE CWA...NOT NECESSARILY SURE HOW MUCH OF A STRONG/SEVERE STORM
THREAT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...AS STREAM OF EARLIER CONVECTION MOVING
IN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH COULD RESULT IN CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER AND
POOR LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM 00Z
GFS ARE FAIRLY SATURATED THROUGH A DEEP LAYER WITH MINIMAL CAPE.
OTHER ISSUES FOR MONDAY INCLUDE CONTINUED STRONG SOUTH TO
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS AS THE DRYLINE APPROACHES AND PASSES...WHICH
COULD EASILY APPROACH OR REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA DEPENDING ON THE
STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE GRADIENT. FINALLY...IF THE DRYLINE SURGES
THROUGH AS FAST AS CURRENTLY ADVERTISED...AND IF FORECAST HIGH TEMPS
AROUND 70 ARE REALIZED...THEN FIRE WEATHER ISSUES COULD CROP UP
DURING THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT MIGHT MANAGE TO
AVOID WIDESPREAD RAINFALL UP TO THAT POINT. FOR NOW...ALLBLEND
CONSENSUS DEWPOINTS IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ARE CONSIDERABLY
HIGHER THAN THOSE PRESENTED BY THE 00Z ECMWF/GFS RUNS...AND KEEP
MINIMUM RH VALUES SAFELY ABOVE 20 PERCENT...BUT JUST NOT SURE THIS
WILL LAST OVER NEXT SEVERAL FORECAST ISSUANCES IF THESE PROGRESSIVE
TRENDS HOLD.
FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...KEPT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD POPS ACROSS
CWA FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT LOWERED TO ONLY THE 20-40 PERCENT
RANGE AS LATEST MODEL RUNS ACTUALLY WOULD SUGGEST THIS 24-HOUR
PERIOD COULD NOW REMAIN DOWNRIGHT DRY IN THE WAKE OF THE INITIAL
VORT MAX AND SURFACE DRYLINE. BOTTOM LINE HERE IS...THESE POPS ARE
REALLY STARTING TO COME INTO QUESTION...AND MAY ULTIMATELY BE
PULLED FROM FORECAST ALTOGETHER IF TRENDS HOLD. KEPT HIGH TEMPS
TUESDAY RIGHT AROUND 60 DEGREES. FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...KEPT IT
DRY...ALTHOUGH MODELS SUGGEST SOME SHOWERS COULD FLIRT WITH THE
SOUTHEAST CWA.
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...UNCERTAINTY REALLY GROWS IN THE
FORECAST...AS MODELS DIVERGE ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE PARENT
MID/UPPER TROUGH AS IT STARTS TO STALL OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CORRIDOR OF THE NATION AND CUT OFF. WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS MOST IF
NOT ALL PRECIP EAST OF THE CWA...THE GFS AND ITS 00Z ENSEMBLE MEAN
WRAPS UP A STRONGER CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH
VORT ENERGY WRAPPING AROUND THIS EXPANSIVE LOW GENERATING
CONSIDERABLE RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY WITHIN THE REGION. ALTHOUGH NOT
NECESSARILY SURE THEY ARE WARRANTED AT THIS POINT...LOADED ALLBLEND
MODEL CONSENSUS POPS PRETTY MUCH AS-IS...WITH 20-30 PERCENT CHANCES
FOR RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
ALTHOUGH ISOLATED THUNDER PROBABLY CANNOT BE RULED OUT...INSTABILITY
IN THIS PATTERN SHOULD BE FAIRLY MINIMAL...AND NOT WORTH A THUNDER
MENTION AT THIS TIME RANGE. TEMP WISE...KEPT HIGHS RIGHT AROUND OR
JUST BELOW 60 BOTH WED AND THURS...WHICH IS STILL AT LEAST A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE MARCH.
AVIATION...06Z KGRI TAF. PRIMARY ISSUE INVOLVES POTENTIAL FOG/LOW
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT DURING THE FIRST 9 HOURS OR SO OF THE PERIOD.
THE NIGHT IS STARTING OUT WITH VERY LIGHT/VARIABLE BREEZES AND
HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER RELATIVE HUMIDITY NOW THAT DEWPOINTS HAVE
INCREASED CONSIDERABLY OVER 24 HOURS AGO. THE OBVIOUS IMPLICATION
IS THAT AT LEAST MVFR VISIBILITY COULD TAKE HOLD AT ANY TIME.
ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE NOT UNANIMOUS ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF DENSE FOG
EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH THE BEST FOCUS APPEARING TO RESIDE 20-50
MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE TERMINAL...WILL CONTINUE THEME FROM
PREVIOUS FEW TAF ISSUANCES WITH LIFR CEILING/VISIBILITY IN A
TEMPO GROUP CENTERED AROUND SUNRISE. AGAIN THOUGH...DENSE FOG WITH
VSBY 1/4SM OR LESS IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. ASSUMING FOG DOES
ULTIMATELY SET IN...ANTICIPATE A FAIRLY STEADY BURN-OFF DURING THE
MORNING...AS SOUTHERLY BREEZES START PICKING UP A BIT. HAVE AIMED
FOR A 15Z RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS...WITH ONLY FEW/SCATTERED FAIR
WEATHER CUMULUS ANTICIPATED DURING THE BALANCE OF THE DAY. TOWARD
THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD SATURDAY EVENING...A STRENGTHENING LOW
LEVEL JET STREAM COULD PUSH LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IN THE LOWEST
2000 FT AGL CLOSE TO NEEDING A FORMAL MENTION...BUT WILL HOLD OFF
FOR NOW.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
328 PM EDT FRI MAR 16 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SAG THROUGH THE REGION TODAY...BRINGING
A SLIGHT COOL DOWN BEFORE WARM WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A WEAK WARM FRONT PRETTY MUCH BISECTS THE FCST AREA...DOG LEGGING
FROM JUST EAST OF BRADFORD AND STATE COLLEGE DOWN WEST OF
HARRISBURG AND YORK. IT SHOWS UP QUITE WELL IN THE ANALYZED LI
FIELDS. SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT IT MAY NOT MOVE MUCH
TODAY BEFORE FINALLY BEING SCOURED OUT BY A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT LATER TODAY. THAT BACK DOOR FRONT IS JUST NOW BEGINNING TO
EDGE INTO NWRN PA WHERE WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE WEST.
LATEST HIGH RES ARW AND HRRR SHOW THAT THE REST OF THE DAY INTO
THE EVENING ONLY SEE A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS OR STORMS POP UP.
MESO ANAL INDICATES WE ARE DEVELOPING A SMALL MEASURE OF
INSTABILITY...AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE MORE THAN 6C/KM OVER
THE WHOLE AREA...BUT DESPITE THIS THE FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW
INCREASING AMOUNTS OF DRY AIR CREEPING IN ALOFT...ACTING AS A
STRENGTHENING CAP.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
THE SFC HIGH IS FCST TO QUICKLY SETTLE DOWN OFF THE MID ATL COAST
WHICH TURNS OUR GRADIENT WINDS SOUTHERLY. WE COULD START OUT WITH
A FAIR AMOUNT OF LOW CLOUDS AND EVEN SOME FOG...BUT STRONG LATE
MARCH SUN AND MIXING SHOULD BRING A MUCH BRIGHTER AFTERNOON. FCST
SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY DRY PROFILES BY MID DAY SUPPORTING THE IDEA OF
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND STRONG HEATING. HIGHS WILL AVERAGE IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE FCST AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE EXTENSIVE RIDGING
ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH NEXT WEEK. A SHORTWAVE IS
PROGGED TO TOP THE RIDGE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...AND COULD BRING
A CHC OF SHRA/TSRA TO THE AREA.
OTHERWISE...THE UNSEASONABLY WARM AND GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL
PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEK. ONE PROVERBIAL FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS
THE POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF EASTERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OFF THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH COULD HOLD TEMPS DOWN
ACROSS EASTERN PA. KEPT WARM TEMPS IN THE FCST...BUT THIS MAY
BEAR WATCHING.
AFTER THE SHORTWAVE EXITS THE REGION MONDAY...THE NEXT DECENT CHC
AT PRECIP WILL NOT COME UNTIL THE END OF THE WEEK WHEN A CLOSED
UPPER-LEVEL LOW APPROACHES FROM THE MIDWEST. TIMING OF THIS FEATURE
IS UNCERTAIN...BUT INTRODUCED 30 PERCENT POPS FOR FRIDAY....WHICH
IS NEAR OR EVEN A BIT BELOW CLIMO FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE BACK DOOR FRONT CONTINUES TO HANG STUBBORNLY OVER EASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA KEEPING LOW CLOUDS LOCKED IN OVER MUCH OF THE SUSQ
VALLEY. LATEST VIZ SATELLITE SHOTS SHOW THAT SOME MIXING IS
FINALLY BEGINNING TO ERODE THE CLOUDS WITH THE IMPROVEMENT TAKING
PLACE FROM JUST WEST OF IPT DOWN THRU THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. THE
STATIONS STARTING OFF MVFR SHUD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY IMPROVE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING BY EVENING.
THE OVERNIGHT WILL SEE A BIT OF FOG DEVELOP BRINGING VIZ DOWN TO
THE 1-3 MILE RANGE AT MOST SITES. THE SLIGHTLY MORE MOIST SERN
AREAS LIKE MDT/LNS COULD SEE VIZ DIP UNDER A MILE. ALL TERMINALS
WILL BURN OFF SMARTLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH A BRIGHT SUNNY DAY
EXPECTED AT ALL LOCATIONS BY MID DAY.
OUTLOOK...
SUN-TUE...VFR...WITH BRIEF REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCT
SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...EVANEGO
AVIATION...LA CORTE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
132 PM EDT FRI MAR 16 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SAG THROUGH THE REGION TODAY...BRINGING
A SLIGHT COOL DOWN BEFORE WARM WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WEAK WARM FRONT PRETTY MUCH BISECTS THE FCST AREA...DOG LEGGING
FROM JUST EAST OF BRADFORD AND STATE COLLEGE DOWN WEST OF
HARRISBURG AND YORK. IT SHOWS UP QUITE WELL IN THE ANALYZED LI
FIELDS. SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT IT MAY NOT MOVE MUCH
TODAY BEFORE FINALLY BEING SCOURED OUT BY A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT LATER TODAY. THAT BACK DOOR FRONT IS JUST NOW BEGINNING TO
EDGE INTO NWRN PA WHERE WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE WEST.
LATEST HIGH RES ARW AND HRRR SHOW THAT THE REST OF THE DAY INTO
THE EVENING ONLY SEE A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS OR STORMS POP UP.
MESO ANAL INDICATES WE ARE DEVELOPING A SMALL MEASURE OF
INSTABILITY...AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE MORE THAN 6C/KM OVER
THE WHOLE AREA...BUT DESPITE THIS THE FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW
INCREASING AMOUNTS OF DRY AIR CREEPING IN ALOFT...ACTING AS A
STRENGTHENING CAP.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
THE SFC HIGH IS FCST TO QUICKLY SETTLE DOWN OFF THE MID ATL COAST
WHICH TURNS OUR GRADIENT WINDS SOUTHERLY. WE COULD START OUT WITH
A FAIR AMOUNT OF LOW CLOUDS AND EVEN SOME FOG...BUT STRONG LATE
MARCH SUN AND MIXING SHOULD BRING A MUCH BRIGHTER AFTERNOON. FCST
SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY DRY PROFILES BY MID DAY SUPPORTING THE IDEA OF
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND STRONG HEATING. HIGHS WILL AVERAGE IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE FCST AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LONG WAVE PATTERN SHOWS STRONG RIDGING ACROSS EASTERN US THROUGH
THE EXTENDED. SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH SHORTWAVE TRACKING THROUGH THE
RIDGE LATE SUNDAY AND OVERNIGHT. INCREASED POPS WITH THIS FEATURE.
OTHERWISE...MAJORITY OF THE EXTENDED LOOKS DRY WITH TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING TO BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. LATE IN THE EXTENDED WILL
HAVE TO WATCH WHAT CUTOFF LOW IN CENTRAL US DOES...BUT FOR NOW
MAJORITY OF SOLUTIONS HAVE IT STAYING WEST OF HERE SUPPORTING THE
WARM TEMPERATURES WE ARE FORECASTING.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE BACK DOOR FRONT CONTINUES TO HANG STUBBORNLY OVER EASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA KEEPING LOW CLOUDS LOCKED IN OVER MUCH OF THE SUSQ
VALLEY. LATEST VIZ SATELLITE SHOTS SHOW THAT SOME MIXING IS
FINALLY BEGINNING TO ERODE THE CLOUDS WITH THE IMPROVEMENT TAKING
PLACE FROM JUST WEST OF IPT DOWN THRU THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. THE
STATIONS STARTING OFF MVFR SHUD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY IMPROVE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING BY EVENING.
THE OVERNIGHT WILL SEE A BIT OF FOG DEVELOP BRINGING VIZ DOWN TO
THE 1-3 MILE RANGE AT MOST SITES. THE SLIGHTLY MORE MOIST SERN
AREAS LIKE MDT/LNS COULD SEE VIZ DIP UNDER A MILE. ALL TERMINALS
WILL BURN OFF SMARTLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH A BRIGHT SUNNY DAY
EXPECTED AT ALL LOCATIONS BY MID DAY.
OUTLOOK...
SUN-TUE...VFR...WITH BRIEF REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCT
SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...ROSS
AVIATION...LA CORTE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
358 PM CDT FRI MAR 16 2012
.SHORT TERM...
THE FORECAST AND SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS ARE PROGRESSING AS
EXPECTED FROM THIS MORNINGS UPDATE. LATEST RUC ANALYSIS INDICATES
3500 J/KG OF SURFACE INSTABILITY NOSING INTO THE AREA WITH AREAS
OF HIGH THETA-E AIR AND NO SURFACE BASED CIN. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
CONTINUES TO INCREASE OVER THE AREA WITH ABOUT 30KT OBSERVED.
ADDITIONALLY...A LARGE AREA OF ACCAS HAS BEEN OBSERVED SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST OF THE LUBBOCK AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO EXPECT AN
INITIATION TIME AFTER 21Z. THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT REMAINS AS
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. DESPITE SUPERCELLULAR STRUCTURE
EXPECTED WITH STORMS...TORNADOES ARE NOT AS LIKELY DUE TO THE VERY
WEAK LOW LEVEL SHEAR.
FOG IS AGAIN EXPECTED TONIGHT AND COULD BECOME DENSE AGAIN ON THE
CAPROCK. THE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO MIX FURTHER EAST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THE CAP IS PROGGED TO BE NEARLY ZERO OFF THE CAPROCK
WITH VERY STRONG SURFACED BASED CAPE IN EXCESS OF 3 KJ/KG.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A LACK OF LARGE SCALE LIFT TOMORROW
AFTERNOON WITH ONLY WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE.
WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE GOING FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON GIVEN
THESE PARAMETERS IN PLACE. JDV
&&
.LONG TERM...
ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE LOOKS TO MOVE OVER THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING BUT POINT SOUNDINGS SHOW A PRETTY
STRONG CAP IN PLACE THAT MAY LIMIT STORM CHANCES SOMEWHAT. CHANCES
FOR STORMS...A FEW ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLY SEVERE...LOOKS TO BE BETTER
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AS A COMBINATION OF THE APPROACH
OF THE MAIN LOW...INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND CURVED LOW-LEVEL
HODOGRAPH...AND INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE THANKS
TO A LOW-LEVEL JET ALL CONTRIBUTE TO DECENT INSTABILITY LEVELS.
DID INCREASE POPS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AS THE
DRYLINE/PACIFIC FRONT HELPS TO FOCUS SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND THEN
CLEAR PRECIPITATION OUT FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE MORNING.
OTHER CONCERN WITH THE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES OUT ACROSS THE AREA WILL
BE FIRE WEATHER FOR MONDAY. SEE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION SECTION
FOR MORE DETAILS. DRY AIR WILL RAPIDLY SWEEP IN ON A BREEZY TO
WINDY WESTERLY WIND DURING THE DAY MONDAY. MODELS HAVE COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT ON DEVELOPING THE TROF INTO A CLOSED LOW AND
TAKING IT FURTHER EAST RATHER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS KEEPING IT CLOSER
TO THE FORECAST AREA. FORECAST PARAMETERS WILL DEPEND ON WHETHER
WE WILL HAVE WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING OR ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA.
DRY AIR WILL SLOWLY MODIFY AT THE SURFACE THROUGH THE END OF NEXT
WEEK WHICH WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY. HOWEVER...FOCUS IS ON
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS SO MOST OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST WAS NOT CHANGED.
JORDAN
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED TO LOW END CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE
LIKELY SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS. A
SURFACE TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN SATURDAY AFTERNOON LEADING TO GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS ON THE WEST SIDE OF A DRYLINE. THIS DRYLINE WILL
MOVE TO THE EDGE OF THE CAPROCK TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH VERY DRY
AIR TO THE WEST OF THIS FEATURE. GUSTY WINDS COMBINED WITH VERY
WARM TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO THE ELEVATED OR LOW END CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. ANOTHER MORE WIDESPREAD FIRE WEATHER
EVENT WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY AS STRONG WESTERLY WINDS AND DRY
AIR PUSH INTO THE REGION BEHIND A DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 46 84 52 81 46 / 10 0 0 20 30
TULIA 53 83 58 80 49 / 20 10 20 30 40
PLAINVIEW 51 82 58 81 50 / 30 10 20 30 50
LEVELLAND 51 82 59 82 50 / 30 10 10 30 40
LUBBOCK 54 83 60 81 53 / 30 10 20 30 50
DENVER CITY 52 82 56 84 50 / 30 10 10 20 40
BROWNFIELD 53 83 60 83 51 / 40 10 20 30 40
CHILDRESS 57 84 62 80 60 / 30 20 20 30 60
SPUR 55 83 61 80 58 / 40 20 20 30 50
ASPERMONT 59 80 64 79 59 / 40 20 20 30 50
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
TXZ021>023-027-028-033-034-039-040.
&&
$$
01/14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
1243 PM CDT FRI MAR 16 2012
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...WHILE A STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHES
ACROSS IOWA AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS TO LOW PRESSURE OVER SE ONTARIO.
SKIES ARE CLEAR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...THOUGH LOW STRATUS IS
STARTING TO EXPAND NORTHWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF LAKE
MICHIGAN. MAY HAVE TO MAKE A LAST MINUTE ADJUSTMENT BASED ON LATEST
TRENDS OF THIS STRATUS. SOME CONVECTION IS STARTING TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT OVER IOWA BUT WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
KEEP IT SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY. AS THIS FRONT RETURNS NORTH TODAY
AND TONIGHT...LOW CHANCES OF PRECIP ARE THE PRIMARY
CONCERN...FOLLOWED CLOSELY BY TEMPS.
TODAY...STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHING ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA AND
ILLINOIS WILL BEGIN TO RETURN NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT TODAY AND
WILL BISECT WISCONSIN FROM NW TO SE BY LATE IN THE DAY. PERSISTENT
EAST TO SE FLOW WILL EXIST NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY WHICH WILL PREVENT
THE FRONT FROM PUSHING INTO NE WISCONSIN. DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF
850MB MOISTURE ADVECTION AND FAIRLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...WILL HAVE SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVING IN ALOFT...THAT MAY
ENHANCE THE CAP MORE THAN WHAT THE NAM IS SHOWING ON PROGGED
SOUNDINGS. KTOP AND KSGF ARE ALSO SHOWING FAIRLY PRONOUNCED CAPPING
IN PLACE. SO WILL STICK WITH A DRY FORECAST WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE LOW 60S NE TO LOW 70S SW...LOCALLY COOLER NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN.
TONIGHT...SW FLOW CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN ALOFT WHICH WILL PUSH THE
FRONT THROUGH ALL BUT FAR NE WISCONSIN WHERE SE WIND WILL KEEP THE
SHALLOW MARINE LAYER IN PLACE. PROGGED SOUNDINGS INDICATE FAIRLY
SUBSTANTIAL ELEVATED CAPE DEVELOPING WITHIN THE LLJ AXIS OVER
CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY 06Z...TO THE TUNE OF 1100
J/KG IN THE GFS AND 2500 J/KG IN THE NAM WITHOUT MUCH CIN. NOT
ENTIRELY CONFIDENT IN THIS INSTABILITY MATERIALIZING FOR THE REASONS
MENTIONED ABOVE (STRONG CAP ON SOUNDINGS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS).
BUT EVEN WITH THIS INSTABILITY...TOUGH TO FIND A TRIGGER TO INITIATE
CONVECTION. DO SEE THE POSSIBILITY OF A WEAK WAVE MAKING IT TO
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND IOWA LATE...BUT IT MAY BE A TAD TOO FAR AWAY
FOR ANY IMPACT IF THE MODELS HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON IT (NOT SURE OF
THAT EITHER). SO WILL GO DRY FOR THE FORECAST. NOT EXPECTING MUCH
FOG CONCERNS EITHER DUE TO THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. LOWS
RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.
SATURDAY...THE WARM FRONT FINALLY CLEARS THE ENTIRE AREA ON SATURDAY
WITH WINDS TURNING TO THE SOUTH. SHOULD SEE A VERY WARM DAY PENDING
CLOUDS AND PRECIP. IF THAT WAVE IS ACTUALLY PRESENT...IT WILL PASS
ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND COULD INTERACT WITH ELEVATED
INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND STORMS. AS A RESULT...DO NOT
HAVE A CONVINCING ARGUMENT TO REMOVE POPS. TEMPS WILL SOAR BACK
INTO THE 70S EVERYWHERE.
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THRU THURSDAY. MAIN FORECAST
CHALLENGES REMAIN HOW WARM WILL TEMPS CAN GET SUNDAY-TUESDAY...FOG
POTENTIAL...AND PRECIP CHANCES.
MODELS REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE WEST COAST...AND
UPPER RIDGING DOMINATES THE EASTERN U.S. MODELS BEGIN TO DIFFER BY
MID-WEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH CUTS OFF AND DRIFTS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
MANY RECORD HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SHATTERED OVER THE WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL USHER IN WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. 850/925 TEMPS SUPPORT MID/UPPER 70S FOR
CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WI ON SUNDAY...AND LOW/MID 70S NORTH. SOME
SPOTS MAY TOUCH THE 80 DEGREE MARK ACROSS CENTRAL WI! MAYBE
SLIGHTLY COOLER ON MONDAY...BUT STILL VERY WARM. MORE CLOUDS AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ALOFT FOR TUESDAY...BUT TEMPS STILL EXPECTED
TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S NORTH AND LOW/MID 70S SOUTH. THE COOL
WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL KEEP THINGS MUCH COOLER ALONG THE
LAKESHORE AND NEAR THE BAY OF GREEN BAY THROUGH THE PERIOD. RECORD
HIGH MINIMUMS WILL LIKELY BE SHATTERED AS WELL IN MANY SPOTS...
WITH LOWS AT NIGHT ONLY FALLING INTO THE 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS
AWAY FROM THE LAKE AND FAR NORTHERN WI. SURFACE WINDS BACK TOWARD
THE SE EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING THE COOLER TEMPS AT THE
LAKESHORE A LITTLE FARTHER INLAND ACROSS FAR EASTERN WI.
PRECIP CHANCES STILL CHALLENGING THROUGH THE EXTENDED AS QUESTIONS
REMAIN REGARDING TIMING/LOCATION OF WEAK DISTURBANCES ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE RIDGE...AND TIMING THE UPPER TROUGH MID-WEEK. SATURDAY
NIGHT IS THE FIRST PERIOD OF CONCERN. GFS/NAM DIFFER ON AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY ALOFT...WITH THE GFS SHOWING VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES. ECMWF/GEM FAVOR THE GFS. MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN
NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...VERY WEAK SHEAR...PLUS STILL NO CLEAR
TRIGGER FOR PRECIP ACTIVITY TO FIRE ON...WITH MODELS ONLY SHOWING
A FEW WEAK VORT MAXES. MAJORITY OF MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SHOW
SOME PRECIP SATURDAY NIGHT...SO FEEL THE NEED TO KEEP SOME SLIGHT
POPS IN THE GRIDS. MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP FOG EACH NIGHT...AS
DEWPOINTS CREEP TOWARD 60. WILL ADD FOG TO LAKE MICHIGAN AND NEAR
THE LAKESHORE...MAINLY ALONG DOOR COUNTY...AS COOLER WATERS SHOULD
ENHANCE FOG POTENTIAL...BUT HOLD OFF ON ANY FOG MENTION ELSEWHERE.
WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS
THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. EVEN THE PRECIP
HAPPY MODELS KEEP THINGS DRY! SOME DISAGREEMENT ON HOW FAST TO
BRING THE CHANCE FOR PRECIP INTO THE AREA AS THE UPPER TROUGH
ADVANCES SLOWLY EASTWARD. PREFER A SLOWER SOLUTION...SO WILL KEEP
THE FORECAST DRY ACROSS EASTERN WI THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WILL HOLD
ON TO SOME LOW CHANCE POPS FOR CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WI WHICH
WILL BE A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE APPROACHING TROUGH. WILL NOT BRING
HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA UNTIL WEDNESDAY...AS THE UPPER
TROUGH FINALLY PUSHES CLOSE ENOUGH...AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND COLD
FRONT PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO INCREASE RAIN/STORM
CHANCES.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOME PATCHY IFR/MVFR CIGS DEVELOPED BELOW AN INVERSION LAYER ACROSS
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN LATE THIS MORNING. THIS AREA WILL SHIFT NORTH
INTO FAR NORTHEAST WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON. LATER TONIGHT...MAIN
QUESTION WILL BE HOW WIDESPREAD AND DENSE THE FOG (IFR/MVFR
CEILING AND VISIBILITIES) WILL BECOME. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUGGEST
THAT AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 29 AND NEAR THE LAKE WILL SEE
AREAS OF DENSE FOG. HOWEVER...925MB WINDS ARE 20 TO 30 KNOTS WHICH
COULD PREVENT THE DENSE FOG FORMING. HAVE TAKEN THE KAUW/KCWA/KRHI
18Z TAFS DOWN TO A HALF MILE TONIGHT. THE IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE RAPIDLY BY 15Z-16Z ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE DENSE FOG
IS EXPECTED TO LINGER A LITTLE BIT LONGER AT KSUE/KMTW WITH WIND
OFF THE LAKE. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WITH GUSTS 0F 20 TO 25 KNOTS. ALSO...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...BUT TIMING AND LOCATION OF THESE
STORMS STILL UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. DID NOT INCLUDE THUNDER IN
THE 18Z TAFS.
ECKBERG
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1242 PM CDT FRI MAR 16 2012
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
303 AM CDT FRI MAR 16 2012
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...AS WELL AS THE LONG PERIOD OF WARMTH SEEN.
CURRENTLY AS OF 07Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED TROUGHING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND RIDGING BUILDING
OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO MANITOBA. TWO OTHER FEATURES OF NOTE
IN WATER VAPOR ARE SHORTWAVES OVER NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND NEAR
TUSCON ARIZONA. UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR REMAINS UNDER THE BUILDING
RIDGING AND PRETTY MUCH THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE U.S.. 850MB
TEMPS AT 00Z RANGED FROM 10-12C AT BIS...ABR...MPX AND GRB...WHILE
OAX AND DVN WERE WARMER AT 14C. AT THE SURFACE...LEE TROUGHING WAS
PRESENT FROM THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS DOWN INTO NEW MEXICO...WHILE A
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING OFF THE LEE TROUGHING EAST ALONG US-20 IN
IOWA. THIS STATIONARY FRONT NOT ONLY SEPARATES SOME OF THE WARMER
850MB AIR SEEN ON 00Z RAOBS...BUT MOISTURE AS WELL. THE 850MB
DEWPOINT AT MPX WAS -10C...COMPARED TO 6C AT DVN. ON A SIDE NOTE...
THE 12Z NAM/GFS WERE 3-5C TOO HIGH WITH THE DEWPOINT AT 850MB FOR A
12 HOUR FORECAST AT DVN...BUT NEARLY SPOT ON AT MPX. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS JUMP NEARLY 20F BETWEEN MSP AND DSM WITH WIDESPREAD MID
50S TO LOW 60S READINGS SOUTH OF THE FRONT. 925MB PROFILER AND RADAR
VWP DATA SHOWED AN INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND FROM OKLAHOMA
INTO IOWA AND THE DAKOTAS...INDICATIVE OF THE BUILDING UPPER
RIDGING. SO FAR ANY FOG THAT HAS FORMED HAS BEEN PATCHY AND
RESTRICTED TO RIVER VALLEYS.
UPPER AND SURFACE PATTERN...OVERALL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
HERE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. TROUGHING CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST IS GOING TO BECOME A FULL LONGWAVE TROUGH DOWN THE WEST
COAST OF THE U.S. BY 18Z SATURDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...THE UPPER FLOW
OVER THE FORECAST AREA BRIEFLY TURNS SOUTHWEST FOR TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY...THEN HEIGHTS/RIDGING BUILDS OVERHEAD. FOR SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGHING SHIFTS EAST INTO THE
ROCKIES...RESULTING IN A SLIGHT SHIFT EASTWARD OF THE RIDGING OVER
THE FORECAST AREA. IN ADDITION...A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ENDS UP
FORMING OVER EASTERN MONTANA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. NOW REGARDING
SOME OF THE INDIVIDUAL PERIOD DETAILS:
TODAY AND TONIGHT...AS THE UPPER RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS
PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...THE STATIONARY FRONT COMES
NORTH...CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 18Z AND 06Z. GIVEN ALL
THE UNSEASONABLE WARMTH AND HUMIDITY ALONG/SOUTH OF THE FRONT...
CONCERN IS IF ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD FORM ON THIS
FRONT. IN FACT...16.00Z GFS SHOWS ONLY 25-50 J/KG OF MLCIN
ALONG/SOUTH OF THE FRONT. ONLY REAL SHORTWAVE OF NOTE IS THE ONE
OVER NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...ALBEIT IT IS VERY WEAK...WHICH IS PROGGED
TO MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HARD TO SAY IF THIS
INITIATES CONVECTION OR NOT. THE 16.00Z GFS SAYS IT DOES OVER FAR
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN...WHILE THE 16.00Z NAM/SPC WRF SAYS NOT AT ALL.
REGARDING THE FRONT ITSELF...0-2 KM CONVERGENCE PLOTS FROM BOTH THE
GFS AND NAM SHOW NO CONVERGENCE OCCURRING. FEELING IS THAT GIVEN THE
FRONT HAS NO CONVERGENCE...WE WILL END UP DRY...BUT THE WEAK
SHORTWAVE IS A WORRY. WHATEVER DOES FORM THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD
DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. THE OVERNIGHT THEN LOOKS
DRY WITH THE AREA UNDERNEATH A BROAD STREAM OF 925-850MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WITH NO FOCUSING MECHANISM. REGARDING TEMPERATURES...850MB
READINGS HOLD STEADY TODAY BETWEEN 10-12C...THOUGH 925MB READINGS
ARE PROGGED 2-4C HIGHER NORTH OF I-90 COMPARED TO 00Z FRIDAY.
THEREFORE...ANTICIPATING HIGHS TO BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY SOUTH OF
I-90 AND 4-6F WARMER NORTH OF I-90. CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION ON A
SOUTHERLY BREEZE TONIGHT...PLUS HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL ALL LEAD TO
LOWS STAYING UP IN THE 50S. A FEW SPOTS MAY NOT DROP BELOW 60.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THINGS GET EVEN MORE MURKY TO FIND
TRIGGERS FOR CONVECTION. WITH THE MAIN FRONT...NOW A WARM FRONT...
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...AM CONCERNED THIS ENTIRE TIME PERIOD WE
WILL END UP CAPPED. THE 16.00Z NAM DOES DEVELOP CONVECTION NORTH OF
I-90 SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT THIS LOOKS SUSPICIOUS. THE
SHORTWAVE CAUSING THE NAM TO DEVELOP THE CONVECTION ORIGINATES FROM
UTAH RIGHT NOW...WHICH IS TOUGH TO FIND ON WATER VAPOR...THEN
SUDDENLY STRENGTHENS OVER EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA LATE SATURDAY.
OUTSIDE OF THE NAM...THE CANADIAN/GFS/ECMWF ALL BASICALLY DEPICT A
DRY SCENARIO...WITH A LITTLE SMATTERING OF QPF ON SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. HAVE DECIDED SINCE THE SMATTERING OF QPF STILL
EXISTS TO MAINTAIN THE PREVIOUS 20 PERCENT CHANCES FOR SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT...PER ALSO COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.
UNLESS A MORE DEFINED SIGNAL FOR PRECIPITATION BECOMES APPARENT...
ENVISION THESE 20 PERCENT CHANCES CAN BE DROPPED. THIS LEAVES
TEMPERATURES THE MAIN CONCERN. 925MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED BETWEEN
16-18C BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THESE READINGS PRODUCED HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S OVER NORTHEAST IOWA YESTERDAY...SO THESE SHOULD BE
SEEN IN MOST AREAS OVER THE WEEKEND. LOWS ALSO EXPECTED TO STAY VERY
WARM WITH ABNORMALLY HIGH DEWPOINTS AND A SUSTAINED SOUTH BREEZE.
NOTE...SHOULD ANY STORMS FORM DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...0-6KM
SHEAR IS LESS THAN 20 KT. PLUS...ALL CAPE PROFILES SUGGEST A NARROW
RIBBON. THEREFORE...NO SEVERE STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH LIGHTNING
AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN THE MAIN CONCERNS.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
303 AM CDT FRI MAR 16 2012
ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD FOCUS IS ON THE SPEED AND EVOLUTION OF THE
LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE ROCKIES SUNDAY NIGHT. A STRONG
CONSENSUS EXISTS AMONGST THE ECMWF/GFS/CANADIAN AND GFS ENSEMBLES
FOR THE TROUGH TO REACH THE WESTERN PLAINS BY 12Z TUESDAY...THEN
BEGIN TO SPLIT APART AS IT RUNS INTO THE VERY STRONG RIDGE TO ITS
EAST. THE NORTHERN PART OF THE TROUGH ENDS UP LIFTING NORTH TOWARDS
HUDSON/JAMES BAYS BY WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE SOUTHERN END CUTS OFF
INTO AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE 16.00Z GFS/ECMWF
AND SOME GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HINT THAT BY LATE THURSDAY THE UPPER
LOW COULD START LIFTING NORTH TOWARDS THE AREA. HOWEVER...THE 15.12Z
ECMWF...SOME 16.00Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND EXTRAPOLATION OF THE
16.00Z CANADIAN ALL SUGGEST A VERY SLOW MOVEMENT WHICH SEEMS MORE
REASONABLE.
REGARDING THE IMPACT ON THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE UPPER TROUGH...A
STRONG SOUTHERLY JET OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF IT SHOULD START PRODUCING
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF I-35 MONDAY MORNING. THESE
WILL THEN SLOWLY PROCEED TO MOVE EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. BEST CHANCES TO SEE PRECIPITATION
WOULD BE WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...CLOSER TO THE FORCING FROM
THE UPPER TROUGH. FOR NOW HAVE STAYED PRETTY CLOSE TO A CONSENSUS ON
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO HANDLE UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING AND DISTANCE
IN TIME IN THE FORECAST...THOUGH THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT. THE EXACT TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES COULD
CHANGE AS WE GET CLOSER. LOWER CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION EXIST
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...DUE TO THE LINGERING STREAM OF
MOISTURE AND FORCING FROM THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE UPPER
TROUGH...OR THE UPPER LOW APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A SLOW COOL DOWN THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD AS THE UPPER TROUGH/LOW APPROACH THE REGION. STILL...850MB
TEMPS DROP ONLY FROM AROUND 12C MONDAY TO 8-10C ON THURSDAY.
THEREFORE TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO STAY WELL ABOVE NORMAL...
ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT WITH THE CLOUDS PREVENTING HEAT LOSS. DEPENDING
ON THE PROGRESSION OF THE CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...POTENTIAL EXISTS TO BREAK RECORD HIGHS.
&&
.AVIATION...THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY
1242 PM CDT FRI MAR 16 2012
A WARM FRONT HAS COME THROUGH THE REGION WITH WINDS SHIFTING
AROUND TO THE SOUTH AT RST AND LSE. THESE WINDS COULD BE GUSTY AT
TIMES THIS AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY AT RST WHERE SOME 20KT GUSTS
ARE POSSIBLE. THE QUESTION FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS
WHETHER ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS REGION WIDE...THERE IS PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY AVAILABLE TO TAP INTO...BUT THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO
BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF A TRIGGER TO GET IT STARTED. SO...WHILE
THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF SEEING SHOWERS/STORMS...HAVE NOT PUT
THEM INTO THE TAFS AT THIS POINT. WITH THE WARM FRONT OFF TO THE
NORTH TONIGHT AND SOME STRONGER LOW LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE
REGION...AM NOT EXPECTING AS LOW OF VISIBILITIES DUE TO FOG AS THE
PAST FEW MORNINGS BUT SOME 4-6SM RESTRICTIONS ARE STILL POSSIBLE.
&&
.CLIMATE...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY
303 AM CDT FRI MAR 16 2012
BOTH RECORD HIGHS AND RECORD WARM LOW TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE EACH
DAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS
CONTINUES TO RESIDE ACROSS THE AREA. NOTE THAT TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BEGIN COOLING MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT...CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION MOVE INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER...RECORDS ON THOSE DAYS
COMPARED TO FORECASTS SUGGEST POTENTIAL TO BREAK THEM.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
303 AM CDT FRI MAR 16 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...HALBACH
CLIMATE....AJ