Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 03/11/12
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
939 PM EST SAT MAR 10 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SLOWLY SLIDES OFFSHORE TO OUR SOUTHEAST
THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN CONTINUES TO PUSH FARTHER OFFSHORE
THROUGH MONDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH MONDAY NIGHT AND MOVE
ACROSS THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONT MOVING ACROSS TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THIS MOVES SOUTH WITH A WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVING NEAR THE REGION BY EARLY FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE WELL ESTABLISHED OFFSHORE LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
DEEP LAYER RIDGE BUILDING IN ALOFT OVERNIGHT...AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS ITS GRADUAL TREK TO OUR SE. ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE
WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE...EXCEPT FROM AROUND NYC ON
WEST TOWARDS SUNRISE WHEN SHOULD INCREASE AS RETURN FLOW SETS UP
ON BACKSIDE OF HIGH.
LITTLE OR NO CLOUD COVER EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...SO WITH LIGHT
WINDS...EXPECT STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING TO CONTINUE...EXCEPT
OVER FAR WESTERN ZONES WHERE INCREASING WINDS LATE WILL BRING THAT
TO AN END...COULD EVEN START TEMPERATURES TO RISE A FEW DEGREES.
TEMPERATURES FALLING A BIT FASTER THAN FORECAST...SO HAVE ADJUSTED
TAKING THE MINIMUM OF MAV/MET/LAV GUIDANCE AND HRRR AND NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES...ADJUSTING DOWNWARD A FEW DEGREES AT
NORMALLY COOLER SPOTS WHICH TYPICALLY END UP A BIT COOLER THAN ANY
GUIDANCE PROJECTS IN SCENARIOS LIKE THIS ONE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD TOWARDS THE FORECAST
REGION AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES TO THE SOUTH ON SUNDAY. A
RETURN SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS WITH WINDS PICKING UP AND GUSTING
TO 20 TO 25 MPH AS DAYTIME MIXING OCCURS UP TO 950 MB...AND UP TO
900 MB FOR INLAND SECTIONS. MAV AND MET NUMBERS WERE SIMILAR FOR
HIGHS AND ARE FORECAST TO BE MAINLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S FOR
URBAN AND INTERIOR LOCATIONS...WHILE COASTAL LOCATIONS STAY MOSTLY
IN THE LOWER 50S WITH THE ADVECTION OF COOLER AIR ACROSS THE
WATER.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS APPROACHES ON SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENING AND MOVING FARTHER OFFSHORE. CLEAR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN WITH THE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE
BUT WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE HIGHER AND THEREFORE THE LOWS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE AS COLD AS THOSE OF TONIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY IN THE SOUTHWEST WILL BE RIDING UP ON
THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY.
THIS CONTINUES TO LIFT INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA ALONG WITH THE
MAJORITY OF THE LOW TO MID LEVEL Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND 500MB
VORTICITY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE ON MONDAY. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD. THIS WILL PRESENT LIMITED MIXING
WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ONLY SHOWING
MIXING UP TO AROUND 950 MB. EVEN SO...WITH A STEADY WEST SOUTHWEST
FLOW DEVELOPING...EXPECTING QUITE A MILD DAY. 850MB TEMPS BETWEEN
6 AND 8 DEGREES EXPECTED WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S...BUT COOLER
ALONG LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHEAST CT...WITH TEMPS HELD IN THE UPPER
50S TO NEAR 60.
A WEAK PARENT LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL HAVE AN ASSOCIATED WARM
FRONT APPROACHING MONDAY NIGHT AND MOVING THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF TUESDAY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH GOOD COHERENT MODEL QPF
FIELDS ACROSS THE AREA WITH LIGHT AMOUNTS. THEN A BRIEF DRY
PERIOD FOR TUES AFTERNOON AS WARM FRONT LIFTS TO THE NORTH. THE
MORE WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW COMES IN BEHIND THE WARM FRONT WITH SOME
CLEARING IN CLOUDS. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THIS COULD TREND LATER
WITH FUTURE MODEL RUNS. DID NOT WANT TO GO WITH THE REALLY WARM
SFC TEMPS OF THE NAM12...THEREFORE WENT MORE WITH A MOSGUIDE AND
NAM12 BLEND. VERY WARM AIR USHERED IN WITH INTERIOR AREAS REACHING
NEAR 70 DEGREES FOR HIGHS.
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THEN MOVES ACROSS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES NOTED HERE ESPECIALLY
ALOFT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHOWN TO BE ABSORBED BACK INTO THE
MEAN FLOW AND DAMPENING IN AMPLITUDE. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE FOLLOWING
RIGHT BEHIND PUSHES FARTHER SOUTH INTO NEW ENGLAND...DRIVING THE
COLD FRONT THROUGH. MUCH OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE GFS
ENSEMBLE SHOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT BREAKING UP WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. THEREFORE JUST WENT LOW END CHANCE TO
SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE AFTERNOON AND JUST SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE
EVENING. COLDER AND DRIER AIRMASS USHERED IN BY MORE NORTHERLY
FLOW AND USED MOSGUIDE TEMPS HERE FOR WEDNESDAY. HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN ON
TUESDAY.
AFTER THAT SHORTWAVE AXIS PUSHES SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A LARGE AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL BE TAKING SHAPE
OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH SATURDAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN ON WEDNESDAY WITH SOME COLDER AIR FROM THE NORTHWEST FLOW.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...GRADUALLY INCREASING 850MB TEMPS WITH
MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES AND WEAKENS TO
THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. VARIANCE IN SFC TEMPS BETWEEN WESTERN
AREAS AND COASTAL AREAS WITH MARINE INFLUENCE BEING THE FACTOR IN
MAKING THESE COASTAL AREAS SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN TEMPS
ACROSS WESTERN AREAS. HIGH TEMPS WELL IN THE 60S INLAND AND MORE
IN THE 50S FOR COASTAL SECTIONS.
A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES BY FRIDAY MORNING BUT IS NOT REMARKABLE
WITHIN THE HEIGHT AND MSLP FIELDS SO IT SEEMS THAT IT WILL DISSIPATE
WITH THE BROAD SCALE HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE BEING THE DOMINANT
FEATURE FOR LATER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WITH FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND
AGAIN ON SATURDAY WITH APPROACH OF ANOTHER FRONT. OTHERWISE...DRY
AND MILD WEATHER CONTINUES.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS TO OUR SOUTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY.
VFR.
LIGHT AND VRB WINDS TO GET STARTED...BECOMING SW 5-10 KT TOWARDS
THE END OF THE PUSH SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS INCREASE TO 10-15KT AND
GUSTY TOWARDS MIDDAY SUNDAY. FOR NOW FEEL GUSTS MORE OCCASIONAL AT
KJFK THAN OTHER TERMINALS SO HAVE NOT PUT IN THE TAF THERE. GUSTS
SHOULD ABATE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. WIND DIRECTION DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY WILL BE TRICKY...GUSTS WILL BEND WIND MORE TOWARDS THE
WEST...BUT POTENTIAL SEA BREEZE IN THE AFTERNOON WILL
BEND...ESPECIALLY COASTAL TERMINALS...MORE TOWARDS THE SOUTH.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...VFR.
.MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS
POSSIBLE.
.WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...VFR. GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE HOURLY WIND/WAVE GRIDS BASED ON LATEST
TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FORECAST WATERS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
TRANQUIL OVERNIGHT. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE SE DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN WITH MINIMAL GUSTS. BY
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON THERE COULD BE OCCASIONAL GUSTS OVER THE
OCEAN WATERS THAT REACH 25 KT. SUNDAY NIGHT WINDS WILL
SUBSIDE...HOWEVER...WITH THE PROLONGED PERIOD OF SOUTHWEST FLOW
SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS MAY BUILDS TO AROUND 5 FT DURING THE
EVENING AND REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. WILL HOLD OFF ON
ISSUING A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AT THIS TIME WITH THE UNCERTAINTY
AND BEING THIRD PERIOD.
ONLY MARINE ISSUES IN LONG TERM ARE SOME HIGHER SEAS MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. EXPECTING A SOUTHWEST FLOW TO HELP THE
FETCH WITH BUILDING SEAS ON THE OCEAN TO 5 TO 6 FT...ESPECIALLY
EAST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET AS A WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT. UPPER LIMIT TO WIND GUSTS IS 20 KT ON THE
WATERS IN THIS TIME FRAME. CONDITIONS LOWER BELOW SCA LEVELS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH RETURN OF HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 20 MPH ALONG WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS
LOWERING TO AROUND 30 PERCENT ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY...THE
LOWER HUDSON VALLEY..AND INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
CONNECTICUT SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL COMBINE TO CONTRIBUTE TO AN
ENHANCED THREAT OF WILDFIRE SPREAD.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. QPF WITH THE WARM
FRONT LOW MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY...GENERALLY LESS THAN A
QUARTER OF AN INCH WITH EVEN LESS WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. OVERALL...DRY WEATHER THEREAFTER WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/MET/JM
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...MALOIT
MARINE...MALOIT/MET/JM
FIRE WEATHER...MET
HYDROLOGY...MET/JM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
108 PM EST FRI MAR 9 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR SATURDAY AND BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. A
WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BACK EDGE OF POST-FRONTAL LOWER CLOUD SHIELD EXITING OFF OF LONG
ISLAND WITH ABUNDANT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE AREA. THESE
ARE CLEARING OUT THIS AFTERNOON BUT CLOUDS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
INTERIOR. WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO NORTHWEST
WINDS FURTHER DECREASING TODAY BUT HELPING USHER IN A COOLER
AIRMASS.
MUCH COOLER TEMPS IN STORE WITH SUBSTANTIAL COLD AIR
ADVECTION FROM THE BACKING OF WINDS FROM LOW TO MID LEVELS WITH
HIGHS UPDATED TO SLIGHTLY COOLER VALUES...MOSTLY IN THE UPPER
40S. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENING TOWARDS THE END OF THE
AFTERNOON WITH ITS ASSOCIATED INCREASE IN OMEGA AND PVA ALONG WITH
A WEAK SFC LOW APPROACHES BUT WITHOUT MUCH MOISTURE. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE
BETTER DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH. WITH RECENT RADAR
OBSERVATIONS TO THE WEST AND HRRR MODEL RUNS...SHIFTED THE
SHOWERS SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...NEW YORK
CITY AND LONG ISLAND WHICH IS FORECAST TO BE MOSTLY ISOLATED
COVERAGE. ANTICIPATING INITIALLY THE SHOWERS WOULD EVAPORATE
BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND WITH DRY LOW LEVELS...SO TIMED THE
SHOWERS MORE TOWARDS LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
BY EARLY EVENING...SOME SHOWERS IF HEAVY COULD BE A
RAIN/SNOW MIX WITH THE CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION AS SFC TEMPS
DROP TO NEAR 40.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE AND WITH ENOUGH COOLING IN
COLUMN...ANY RAIN SHOWERS WILL START TO MIX WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND
THEN PLAIN SNOW SHOWERS LATER AT NIGHT. WITHOUT A RICH MOISTURE
SOURCE...NOT THINKING OF ANY ACCUMULATIONS...PERHAPS JUST A
COATING ON GRASSY SURFACES AND AGAIN THIS WOULD BE MORE FOR THE
INTERIOR AREAS IN THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
CONNECTICUT...ESPECIALLY THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WEATHER DRIES OUT
LATE WITH HIGH PRESSURE STARTING TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.
A SECONDARY BURST OF WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 30 MPH THIS
EVE...THEN WINDS DIMINISH INTO SAT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE
REGION. MOSUNNY AND DRY SAT WITH TEMPS JUST BLW CLIMO.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THERE COULD BE SOME CLOUDS AROUND SAT EVENING ESPECIALLY OVER
SOUTHERN CT AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSES BY...THEN EXPECT
CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES TO THE SE OF THE AREA. A RETURN WSW FLOW WILL MARK A QUICK
WARMING TREND TO ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE LOWER 60S
FROM NYC NORTH/WEST...AND IN THE ACROSS MOST OF LONG ISLAND AND
SOUTHERN CT.
APPROACHING WARM FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK NOW LOOKS SLOWER TO
ARRIVE...SO HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST AND HIGH TEMPS REACHING
THE 60S TO NEAR 70...WARMEST FROM NYC NORTH/WEST AWAY FROM MARITIME
INFLUENCE. STILL HAVE CHANCE POP IN MOST PLACES WITH THE WARM
FRONTAL APPROACH MON NIGHT.
A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES PASSING THROUGH WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE TO
LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST...BUT WIDESPREAD CONTINUOUS RAIN IS
NOT ANTICIPATED NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK LOW PRES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT THIS EVENING. HIGH PRES RETURNS TONIGHT.
VFR...THOUGH A BKN MID-DECK AT 4K FT IS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS
EVENING.
WINDS WILL BACK TO THE WEST THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING AS WEAK LOW
PRES MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. A COLD FRONT FOLLOWS THIS
EVENING...AND WINDS VEER TO THE NW BEHIND THE FRONT. WITH CAA AND
A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT OVER THE AREA...NW WINDS INCREASE TO 15-20
KT WITH 25-30 KT GUSTS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS TO THE LEFT OF 310 TRUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING...THEN VEERING RIGHT OF 310 TRUE. AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR
CHANGES IN WIND DIRECTION AND/OR SPEED.
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR CHANGING WIND
DIRECTION/SPEED.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR CHANGING WIND
DIRECTION/SPEED.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR CHANGING WIND
DIRECTION/SPEED.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR CHANGING WIND
DIRECTION/SPEED.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR CHANGING WIND
DIRECTION/SPEED.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SATURDAY AFTERNOON-NIGHT...VFR WITH DIMINISHING WINDS.
.SUNDAY...VFR. GUSTY SW WINDS POSSIBLE.
.MONDAY...VFR.
.MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...SUB VFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS.
.WEDNESDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
EXPECT SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING. ON THE
PROTECTED WATERS...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THIS MORNING. SEAS ON
OCEAN LOWER SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN
TONIGHT TO 4-6 FT. WIND GUSTS RAMP BACK UP TO 25-30 KT TONIGHT
WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS WITH SCA FOR ALL WATERS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ON SATURDAY WITH GRADUAL LOWERING WINDS.
AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SE OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY...A WSW RETURN
FLOW WITH SPEEDS UP TO 20 KT SHOULD BUILD OCEAN SEAS UP TO SCA
LEVELS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY EAST/FARTHER OFFSHORE.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH THEREAFTER...WITH QUIET CONDITIONS RETURNING FOR
MON-MON NIGHT. INCREASING SW FLOW AFTER A WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE COULD
BUILD OCEAN SEAS UP TO SCA LEVELS TUE INTO TUE NIGHT...ONCE AGAIN
MAINLY EAST/FARTHER OFFSHORE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING WITH QPF
BEING LOW...A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OR LESS. WIDESPREAD
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION NOT EXPECTED.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WATER LEVELS WITH THE NEXT LOW TIDE CYCLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING SHOULD REMAIN JUST ABOVE THE LOW WATER ADVY
THRESHOLD OF -1.8 FT MLLW.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...JMC/GOODMAN/JM
SHORT TERM...JMC/JM
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...JMC/GOODMAN/JM
HYDROLOGY...JMC/JM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1140 PM CST THU MAR 8 2012
.AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH THROUGH AREA NOW WILL TURN WINDS TO THE
NW. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT BUT WILL
SETTLE BACK TO 10KTS TO 20KTS A FEW HOURS AFTER THE FROPA.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FRIDAY MORNING WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN. THE HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY
EVENING ALLOWING WINDS TO TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. ..DLF..
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CST THU MAR 8 2012/
SYNOPSIS...
12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS AN 850MB COLD FRONT FROM SOUTHERN LAKE HURON INTO
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. A BIT MORE IMPRESSIVE IS THE 700MB COLD FRONT
FROM THE MACKINAC STRAITS INTO SOUTHEAST COLORADO. A STRONG LLJ WAS
TRANSPORTING MOISTURE FROM THE GULF COAST INTO NEW ENGLAND. SATELLITE
TRENDS HAVE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY. LOW LEVEL SC/CU WERE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A SHORTWAVE ROTATING ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA TOWARD
WISCONSIN.
18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS THE PRIMARY FRONT FROM TEXAS INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY WITH SEVERAL WEAK TROFS FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. A NEW COLD FRONT WAS DROPPING SOUTH FROM CANADA AND WAS INTO
NORTH DAKOTA AND MINNESOTA. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE TEENS AND 20S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDWEST WHILE 40S AND GREATER DEW POINTS RAN FROM
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...
THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED PV ANOMALY IS MOVING INTO SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN. THESE FEATURES COMBINED WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
HELPED PRODUCE THE STRONG WINDS STARTING AROUND MID DAY. AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES WITH SUNSET THE WINDS WILL DECREASE.
LATER TONIGHT A STORM SYSTEM WILL PASS NORTH OF THE AREA BUT WILL
DRAG ANOTHER COLD FRONT/BOUNDARY THROUGH THE AREA. THUS CLOUDS WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE LATER THIS EVENING. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES...
STRONG SUBSIDENCE SHOULD START BREAKING UP THE CLOUDS PRIOR TO
SUNRISE. THE RUC DOES INDICATE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES GETTING STEEPER
LATE TONIGHT SO THE SUBSIDENCE SHOULD ALLOW WINDS TO PICK UP AGAIN
BEFORE DECREASING AGAIN PRIOR TO SUNRISE.
ON FRIDAY HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA RESULTING IN MUCH
LIGHTER WINDS AND GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES. SUBSIDENCE WILL LIMIT THE
AMOUNT OF MIXING THAT OCCURS BUT THE STRONG MARCH SUN SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO BE SIMILAR TO THURSDAY. ..08..
LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY...
CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH A LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN EVENT LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
OVERALL...INITIALIZATION AND VERIFICATION SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE WITH
SIGNFICANT DISCREPANCIES OF TEXAS CONVECTION. THIS WILL IMPACT THE
TIMING...EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF UPPER LOW FOR LATE SUNDAY. THIS IS
HANDLED ADEQUATELY BY A BLEND OF THE HI-RES ECMWF AND GFS BUT COLD
FRONTAL EVOLUTION SUGGESTS A BIT FASTER TRACK AND QUICKER OCCLUSION
THAT MAY BECOMEM EVIDENT THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH FASTER STARTING OF
RAIN ON SUNDAY AND IN NW SECTIONS...LIGHTER AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITION.
FRIDAY NIGHT...TRIMMED LOWS A FEW DEGREES IN EASTERN SECTIONS DUE TO
LIGHT SE WINDS ALLOWING FOR A BIT OF DECOUPLE UNDER A CLEAR SKY WITH
MIDDLE 20S POSSIBLE FOR LATER SHIFTS AND A DECENTR FROST ALONGAND
EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
SATURDAY...WARMING TREND WITH INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AND
COPIOUS SUNSHINE. UPPED HIGHS TO AROUND 60F WESTERN SECTIONS AND
MIDDLE 50S EAST. IF ENOUGH BL MIXING OCCURS AS SUGGESTED...MAX TEMPS
MAY STILL BE A FEW DEGREES TOO COOL. MINS SATURDAY NIGHT MAY BE
AROUND MIDNIGHT BEFORE HIGH CLOUDS ARRIVE WITH UPPER 30S NORTH AND
LOWER TO POSSIBLY MIDDLE 40S SOUTH SECTIONS.
SUNDAY...AREAS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA WITH
AMOUNTS MOSTLY A QUARTER TO LOCALLY AROUND A HALF INCH. CLOUDS AND
EVAPORATIVE COOLING TO KEEP HIGHS IN THE 50S THAT MAY FALL INTO THE
40S WITH PERIODS OF RAIN. TIMING QUESTION PRECLUDES GOING MORE THAN
LIKELY WITH BULK OF RAIN SUGGESTED BETWEEN 21-09Z ATTM. SUNDAY NIGHT
MINS MILD MOSTLY IN THE MIDDLE 40S DUE TO HIGH DEWPOINTS AND RH
VALUES WITH LIGHT FOG NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR LATER SHIFTS.
MONDAY...CLEARING SKIES WITH ANY RAIN ENDING EARLY. SOUTH WINDS TO
USHER IN MILD GULF OF MEXICO AIR WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S...OR
ABOUT 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MILD AND DRY WITH MORE WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS 65-75F SUGGESTED WITH LOWS 45-55 DEGREES WITH
LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS. WITH ENOUGH BL MIXING...UPPER 70S MAXES
SUGGESTED WHICH ARE RECORD HIGHS FOR THIS PERIOD. RECORD MILD MINS
ARE AROUND 50 DEGREES WHICH MAY ALSO BE THREATENED. ..NICHOLS..
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
627 PM EST SAT MAR 10 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
EASTBOUND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY, SEASONABLE CONDITIONS INTO
TONIGHT, AND MILD TEMPERATURES SUNDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM,
TRAVELING NORTHEAST FROM KANSAS TO THE GREAT LAKES, WILL BRING
RAIN SHOWERS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY A DRY, MILD
SPELL INTO LATE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WILL ALLOW
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT TO BE NEAR NORMAL LEVELS, WHICH IS
SUPPORTED BY RECENT GFS AND NAM MOS AND GFS LAMP AND HRRR MODEL
OUTPUT.
RECENT SREF MODEL OUTPUT SHOWS SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A WARM UP SUNDAY, WITH STILL FEW
CLOUDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES CAN BE AS MUCH AS 10 DEGREES WARMER
THAN NORMAL, PER CONSENSUS OF RECENT GFS AND NAM MOS. LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT CAN LIKEWISE BE UP TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BLEND OF RECENT SREF, CMC, AND ECMWF MODEL OUTPUT SHOW A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM, MOVING NORTHEASTWARD FROM KANSAS TO THE GREAT
LAKES, WILL PUSH A WARM FRONTAL BAND OF SHOWERS EASTWARD THROUGH
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY DAYTIME MONDAY, AND A WEAKER OCCLUDED COLD
FRONTAL BAND OF SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT.
NAM MODEL PROFILES SUGGEST THERE MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO
INCLUDE MENTION OF A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.
CLOSELY CONCURRING GFS AND NAM MOS SHOW LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT CAN BE
UP TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL. DESPITE THE CLOUD INCREASE
AND RAIN PROSPECTS, BLEND OF GFS AND NAM MOS CONTINUE TO SHOW
HIGHS MONDAY TO BE SIMILAR TO SUNDAY AND AS MUCH AS 10 DEGREES
WARMER THAN NORMAL. POST-SYSTEM DRYING WILL YIELD DECREASING
CLOUDS DAYTIME TUESDAY. WITH THE JETSTREAM FLOW ALOFT NOT
SUPPORTING ANY POST-SYSTEM COOLING, NAM AND GFS MOS SHOW HIGHS
TUESDAY CAN BE MORE THAN 15 DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NAEFS AND ECMWF MODEL OUTPUT SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL JETSTREAM
PATTERN BECOMING ORIENTED SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE UNITED
STATES THIS PERIOD, WHICH WILL PROVIDE MILD TEMPERATURES INTO THE
WEEKEND.
MIDWEST HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS INTO THURSDAY. A
SERIES OF GULF-MOISTURE-FED WARM FRONTS WILL BRING SHOWERS AT
TIMES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
FORECASTED TEMPERATURES TO BE MORE THAN 20 DEGREES WARMER THAN
NORMAL PER HPC-PREFERRED CONSENSUS OF GFS MOS, AND ECMWF AND NAEFS
MODEL OUTPUT.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE TERMINALS THROUGHOUT THE
TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER PATTERN. CLEAR
SKIES WITH NEAR CALM WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL UNTIL MONDAY WHEN A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY BRINGS THE CHANCE OF RESTRICTIONS WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN VFR
CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY BRINGS
THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
827 AM EST FRI MAR 9 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A CLIPPER-TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES WILL
SWING A COLD FRONT AND A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS A FEW SNOW SHOWERS NORTH OF I-80 BEFORE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A CLIPPER-TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DROP A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE REGION BY THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONT IS
RELATIVELY LOW...THE HI-RES MODELS AS WELL AS THE GFS/NAM SUGGEST
THAT A SNOW SHOWERS COULD REACH THE MOST NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS
AFTERNOON. THE RUC ACTUALLY SUGGESTS THAT FLURRIES COULD BE
POSSIBLE AS FAR SOUTH AS PITTSBURGH BUT FOR NOW...KEPT LOW CHANCE
POPS MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES.
COLD AIR ADVECTION AND NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD BRING INCREASED CLOUD
COVER THIS AFTERNOON. BUFKIT MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO SUGGEST WINDS
COULD GUST ONCE AGAIN CLOSE TO 35 MPH THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL APPROACH TONIGHT AND SETTLE OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE U.S FOR THE WEEKEND KEEPING THE AREA DRY. WHILE
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY...THEY WILL MODERATE
WITH A RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW SUNDAY. CLOUD COVER WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE LATE SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PROGGED
TO DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD MONDAY.
FOLLOWED TEMPERATURE TRENDS CLOSE TO MAV/MET GUIDANCE WHICH
BROUGHT THE HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY CLOSE TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE
LOW TRACKING FROM THE MS VALLEY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
MONDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL
REBUILD BY MIDWEEK...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS ON THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING AS COLD ADVECTION HAS
NEUTRALIZED AND SURFACE WIND HAS BACKED TO THE WSW WITH THE
APPROACH OF A SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
THAT DISTURBANCE WILL PULL A REINFORCING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
TERMINALS BY MIDDAY...REINITIATING COLD ADVECTION AND SPAWNING
MVFR TO VFR STRATOCU FOR THE AFTERNOON. INCREASED LAPSE RATES
SHOULD SUPPORT WIND GUSTS TO 25KT...AS WELL AS THE CHANCE FOR
SOME SNOW SHOWERS NEAR KFKL AND KDUJ. EXPECT THE COLD NW FLOW TO
CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING...HENCE HAVE MAINTAINED A MVFR FORECAST
FOR LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD PROVIDE GENERALLY VFR WEATHER FOR THE
WEEKEND. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
444 AM EST FRI MAR 9 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A CLIPPER-TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES WILL
SWING A COLD FRONT AND A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS A FEW FLURRIES NORTH OF I-80 BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
RESIDUAL HIGH CIRRUS IS ESSENTIALLY ALL THAT IS LEFT OF THE COLD
FRONT THAT CROSSED THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED INTO THE 30`S EVERYWHERE THIS MORNING
AND SHOULD BUDGE VERY LITTLE TODAY AS A CLIPPER-TYPE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DROPS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE
MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONT IS RELATIVELY LOW...THE HI-RES MODELS AS
WELL AS THE GFS/NAM SUGGEST THAT A SNOW SHOWERS COULD REACH THE
MOST NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. THE RUC ACTUALLY SUGGESTS
THAT FLURRIES COULD BE POSSIBLE AS FAR SOUTH AS PITTSBURGH BUT FOR
NOW...KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES.
COLD AIR ADVECTION AND NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD BRING INCREASE CLOUD
COVER THIS AFTERNOON. BUFKIT MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO SUGGEST WINDS
COULD GUST ONCE AGAIN CLOSE TO 30MPH THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL APPROACH TONIGHT AND SETTLE OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE U.S FOR THE WEEKEND KEEPING THE AREA DRY. WHILE
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY...THEY WILL MODERATE
WITH A RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW SUNDAY. CLOUD COVER WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE LATE SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PROGGED
TO DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD MONDAY.
FOLLOWED TEMPERATURE TRENDS CLOSE TO MAV/MET GUIDANCE WHICH
BROUGHT THE HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY CLOSE TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE
LOW TRACKING FROM THE MS VALLEY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
MONDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL
REBUILD BY MIDWEEK...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS ON THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GENL VFR IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING AS COLD ADVCTN HAS
NEUTRALIZED AND SFC WIND HAS BACKED TO THE WSW WITH THE APPRCH OF A
SHRTWV ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
THAT DISTURBANCE WL PULL A REINFORCING CDFNT ACRS UPR OHIO VALLEY
TERMINALS BY MIDDAY...REINITIATING COLD ADVECTION AND SPAWNING
MVFR...TO BARELY VFR STRATOCU FOR THE AFTN. IMPROVED LLVL LAPSE
RATES ALSO SUPPORTS WIND GUSTS INTO THE MID/UPR 20S...AS WELL AS THE
CHC FOR SOME SHSN NR FKL AND DUJ.
EXPECT THE COLD REGIME/NW FLOW TO CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY EVE...HENCE
HAVE MAINTAINED A MVFR CIG FORECAST FOR THAT LATE-TAF TIME PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD PROVIDE GENERALLY VFR WEATHER FOR THE
WEEKEND. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
440 AM EST FRI MAR 9 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A CLIPPER-TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES WILL
SWING A COLD FRONT AND A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS A FEW FLURRIES NORTH OF I-80 BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
RESIDUAL HIGH CIRRUS IS ESSENTIALLY ALL THAT IS LEFT OF THE COLD
FRONT THAT CROSSED THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED INTO THE 30`S EVERYWHERE THIS MORNING
AND SHOULD BUDGE VERY LITTLE TODAY AS A CLIPPER-TYPE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DROPS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE
MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONT IS RELATIVELY LOW...THE HI-RES MODELS AS
WELL AS THE GFS/NAM SUGGEST THAT A SNOW SHOWERS COULD REACH THE
MOST NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. THE RUC ACTUALLY SUGGESTS
THAT FLURRIES COULD BE POSSIBLE AS FAR SOUTH AS PITTSBURGH BUT FOR
NOW...KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES.
COLD AIR ADVECTION AND NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD BRING INCREASE CLOUD
COVER THIS AFTERNOON. BUFKIT MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO SUGGEST WINDS
COULD GUST ONCE AGAIN CLOSE TO 30MPH THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL APPROACH TONIGHT AND SETTLE OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE U.S FOR THE WEEKEND KEEPING THE AREA DRY. WHILE
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY...THEY WILL MODERATE
WITH A RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW SUNDAY. CLOUD COVER WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE LATE SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PROGGED
TO DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD MONDAY.
FOLLOWED TEMPERATURE TRENDS CLOSE TO MAV/MET GUIDANCE WHICH
BROUGHT THE HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY CLOSE TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE
LOW TRACKING FROM THE MS VALLEY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
MONDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL
REBUILD BY MIDWEEK...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS ON THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GENL VFR IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING AS
CDFNT/ASSOCIATED SHRA MOVE HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE RIDGES. SFC WIND
WL CONT TO DIMINISH AND BACK TO THE W IN THE PREDAWN HRS AS ANOTHER
SHRTWV CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES.
THAT DISTURBANCE WL PULL A REINFORCING CDFNT ACRS UPR OHIO VALLEY
TERMINALS BY MIDDAY...REINITIATING COLD ADVECTION AND SPAWNING
MVFR...TO BARELY VFR STRATOCU FOR THE AFTN. IMPROVED LLVL LAPSE
RATES ALSO SUPPORTS WIND GUSTS INTO THE MID/UPR 20S.
EXPECT THE COLD REGIME/NW FLOW TO CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY EVE...HENCE
HAVE MAINTAINED A MVFR CIG FORECAST FOR THAT LATE-TAF TIME PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD PROVIDE GENERALLY VFR WEATHER FOR THE
WEEKEND. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1243 PM EST FRI MAR 9 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 425 AM EST FRI MAR 9 2012
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW UPR TROF
STRETCHING FM HUDSON BAY INTO THE GRT LKS DOWNSTREAM OF RDG OVER
WRN NAMERICA. PAIR OF VIGOROUS SHRTWVS DIGGING WITHIN THE UPR TROF
AND OVER ONTARIO AND WI ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A SHARP COLD FNT THAT IS
PUSHING ACRS UPR MI EARLY THIS MRNG AND CAUSED 12-24Z H3 FALLS OVER
200M FM MOOSONEE ONTARIO TO APX. WITH STEEP SFC-H7 LAPSE RATE AND A
GOOD DEAL OF LLVL MSTR SHOWN ON THE 00Z INL RAOB AS WELL AS VIGOROUS
DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC ASSOCIATED MAINLY WITH THE STRONGER WI
SHRTWV/ACCOMPANYING 100KT H5 JET MAX...NMRS SHSN ARE PRECEDING THIS
COLD FROPA. A SHARP PRES RISE CENTER OVER NRN MN BEHIND THIS
DISTURBANCE WITH 3HR PRES RISE UP TO 7MB IS ASSOCIATED WITH VIGOROUS
CAD IN ADVANCE OF H85 THERMAL TROF WITH TEMPS DOWN TO -20C PUSHING
INTO NW ONTARIO. THE ISALLOBARIC WIND WNW WIND IN ADVANCE OF THIS
CENTER IS NEARLY ALIGNED WITH THE GRADIENT NW WIND BEHIND THE COLD
FNT AND HAS RESULTED IN WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 KTS AT SEVERAL OF THE
C-MAN SITES OVER WRN LK SUP. BEHIND THE FNT/THERMAL TROF...12-24Z H3
RISES OVER 200M WERE REPORTED AT THE PAS ONTARIO AND BISMARCK...
INDICATING A PROGRESSIVE UPR FLOW. SFC HI PRES IN ADVANCE OF THE
ROCKIES RDG IS CENTERED OVER NDAKOTA. THE 00Z RAOB FM THE PAS SHOWS
A VERY DRY AIRMASS WITH PWAT 0.07 INCH. THIS DRIER AIR IS SURGING
TOWARD THE UPR LKS...AND AT FCST ISSUANCE THIS DRY AIR APPEARS TO BE
LIMITING LES COVERAGE OVER THE W.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 425 AM EST FRI MAR 9 2012
TDAY...IN THE NEAR TERM...THE SFC COLD FNT WL CLEAR ERY BY FCST
ISSUANCE. AS COLDER/MOISTER H85 AIR SHOWN ON THE 00Z INL/YPL RAOBS
FOLLOW OVER LK SUP...EXPECT LES TO INCRS IN INTENSITY EARLY THIS
MRNG IN THE NW WIND SN BELTS E OF MQT. OVER THE W...THE DRIER AIR
THAT HAS CAUSED QUITE A BIT OF CLRG OVER THE W PORTION OF THE LK WL
LIMIT POPS/ADDITIONAL SN AMOUNTS. THE PRES RISE CENTER IS FCST TO
MOVE JUST TO THE E OF ISLE ROYALE BY 12Z THIS MRNG AND THEN TO JUST
E OF WHITEFISH PT BY 18Z. WITH H925 WINDS UP TO 40-45KTS ACCENTUATED
BY THE ISALLOBARIC WIND AHEAD OF THIS CENTER AND VIGOROUS
CAD/MIXING... EXPECT WIND GUSTS TO REACH NEAR 50 MPH AT EXPOSED
LOCATIONS TO NW WINDS IN ADVANCE OF THIS PRES RISE CENTER. WIND WL
DIMINISH ONCE THE PRES RISE CENTER MOVES TO THE E. SINCE VIGOROUS
DNVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC IS PROGGED TO DVLP OVER THE CWA BY 12Z IN
THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SHRTWV COMPLEX...EXPECT STRONG SUBSIDENCE
THAT IS FCST TO LOWER INVRN AND EVEN DESCEND INTO THE DGZ AS WELL AS
ARRIVAL OF MUCH DRIER LLVL AIR /H925-85 DEWPT DEPRESSIONS 5-10C/ TO
CAUSE THE LES TO DIMINISH FAIRLY QUICKLY W-E. THE TIMING OF THESE
NEGATIVE DYNAMICS/SUBSIDING WINDS/OBSERVED TRENDS SUPPORT THE 12Z
EXPIRATION OF THE HEADLINE FOR THE KEWEENAW. ALTHOUGH THE LONGER
FETCH ACRS LK SUP INTO AREAS E OF MQT WL MAINTAIN SOMEWHAT MORE NMRS
SHSN IN THAT AREA LONGER...OPTED TO CANX THE ADVY FOR THOSE AREAS
AFT 18Z ONCE THE PRES RISE CENTER SHIFTS TO THE E AND WINDS DIMINISH
IN THIS PROGRESSIVE FLOW. OVER THE W AND CNTRL...EXPECT A RETURN OF
SOME SUNSHINE DURING THE AFTN WITH THE SUBSIDENCE/LLVL
DRYING/ARRIVAL OF MORE ACYC FLOW AS SFC HI PRES RDG IS FCST TO REACH
THE CNTRL U.P. BY 00Z. BUT HI TEMPS WL BE WELL BLO NORMAL PER
UPSTREAM HI TEMPS MAINLY IN THE TEENS YDAY IN THE INCOMING AIRMASS
OVER SCNTRL CAN.
TNGT...STRONG WAD PATTERN IS FCST TO SET UP TNGT WITH HI PRES RDG
SHIFTING INTO THE UPR OH RIVER VALLEY UNDER PROGRESSIVE UPR RDG THAT
IS FCST TO RAISE H5 UP TO 80M OVER UPR MI BTWN 00Z-12Z. WITH FALLING
MSLP OVER SCNTRL CAN...S WINDS AT H925 ARE FCST TO INCRS UP 45 TO 50
KT BY 12Z SAT TO THE S OF PRES FALL CENTER PASSING THRU ONTARIO. THE
STRONG WAD IS FCST TO LIFT H85 TEMPS UP TO 7C AT IWD BY DAYBREAK.
ALTHOUGH THIS RETURNING WARM AIR WL SUPPORT A BAND OF CLDS THAT WL
SHIFT W-E ACRS THE UPR LKS...THE INCOMING AIRMASS WL BE FAIRLY DRY
WITH H85 DEWPTS IN THE -10C TO -15C RANGE. SO MODELS APPEAR ON TRACK
SHOWING THE WAD PCPN REMAINING MOSTLY TO THE N OF THE U.P. WITH JUST
A BAND OF THICKER AC/AS INFLUENCING THE CWA. DID RETAIN LO CHC POPS
FOR MAINLY THE NE HALF OF LK SUP. SUSPECT MIN TEMPS WL OCCUR IN THE
EVNG...WITH THE LOWEST READINGS OVER THE E IN THE EVNG. BUT TEMPS
SHOULD RISE OVERNGT WITH STRENGTHENING WINDS/RETURN OF MUCH WARMER
AIR.
SAT...WITH WARM FNT SHIFTING TO THE NE...CWA WL BE IN THE WARM
SECTOR WITH H85 TEMPS FCST IN THE 6-9C RANGE. DRYNESS OF THE
INCOMING AIRMASS SUGS POTENTIAL FOR LO CLDS IS MINIMAL. MIXING TO
JUST H9 ON GFS/NAM FCST SDNGS SUG MAX TEMPS WL PEAK IN THE 50S WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. A STRONG WSW WIND WITH H925 SPEEDS UP TO 35 KT
WL ENHANCE DOWNSLOPE WARMING BTWN BARAGA AND MQT. AREAS OVER THE E
DOWNWIND OF LK MI WL BE COOLEST.
SAT NGT...WITH WEAKENING PRES GRADIENT/DIMINISHING WINDS/MOCLR SKIES
UNDER BLDG UPR RDG IN THE GRT LKS...EXPECT A HEALTHY DIURNAL TEMP
FALL. BUT MIN TEMPS WL STILL BE WELL ABV NORMAL WITH UNSEASONABLY
WARM AIRMASS STILL IN PLACE.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 AM EST FRI MAR 9 2012
STILL ON TRACK TO HAVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SFC LOW OVR THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TO LIFT NORTHEAST AND BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN TO THE UPR LAKES.
MODELS SEEM TO BE LATCHING ONTO A SLOWER TIMING COMPARED TO RUNS FM
THE LAST COUPLE DAYS. BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN SUGGESTS A DRY
FCST FOR SUNDAY. GFS FCST SOUNDINGS AND RH FIELDS FM GFS/ECMWF POINT
TO ABRUPT ARRIVAL OF DEEPER MOISTURE/PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY NIGHT.
RESULT IS A GOOD DISPLAY OF SUNSHINE FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY. MIXING TO
925-900MB INDICATES HIGHS WELL INTO THE 50S FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN
HALF OF CWA. SFC WINDS ARE MAINLY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE
LOW WOULD KEEP MORE LAKE MODIFIED AIR/TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 40S OVR
EASTERN CWA AND ACROSS TIP OF KEWEENAW PENINSULA. RAIN FCST TO BEGIN
TO SPREAD IN FM THE SOUTH ON SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT HAVE DELAYED LIKELY
POPS UNTIL MONDAY WITH ARRIVAL OF UPR LOW AND HIGHER H85 DWPNTS.
RAISED MINS ON SUNDAY NIGHT TO 35-40F GIVEN INCREASING SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND MOISTURE ADVECTION.
IN THE EXTENDED...WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT /MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE
AMOUNTS/ CONTINUES TO COME INTO FOCUS ON MONDAY AND PERHAPS EVEN INTO
MONDAY EVENING. GFS/ECMWF HAVE DEFINITELY TRENDED TOWARD THE SLOWER
PROGRESSION OF THE CANADIAN...NOT EXITING POPS OVER CWA UNTIL MONDAY
EVENING. RAIN AMOUNTS WITH THE SYSTEM PROBABLY WILL END UP FM
0.25-0.50 INCH AS GFS/ECMWF SHOW STRONGEST H85 MOISTURE ADVECTION
JUST GRAZING THE CWA TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. AT THIS POINT...APPEARS
STEADIEST RAIN WILL OCCUR MONDAY MORNING INTO MID MONDAY AFTN. TEMPS
WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL BUT SHOULD BE HELD MAINLY IN THE 40S ON
MONDAY DUE TO THE CLOUDS/RAIN. MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE
MONDAY EVENING THEN SHARP DRYING ALOFT OCCURS AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY
NIGHT. AS LONG AS WINDS ARE NOT TOO STRONG...COULD SEE FOG FORM LATER
MONDAY NIGHT OVER CWA IN WAKE OF THE RAIN SHOWERS.
TUESDAY LOOKING DRY WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY. SFC
RIDGE IS OVER THE AREA SO LK BREEZES SHOULD FORM AND TRIED TO PUT
THIS IN GRIDS. MIXING TO H9 PROBABLY PRETTY GOOD BET WITH EXPECTED
SUNSHINE AND THAT GIVES HIGHS WELL INTO THE 50S IF NOT REACHING 60
DEGREES INLAND TOWARD WI BORDER.
SW FLOW INCREASES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF FAIRLY WELL
AGREED UPON TROUGH ADVANCING INTO UPR LAKES. SHOULD BE QUITE WARM
AHEAD OF TROUGH WITH DWPNTS INTO THE 40S AND MAYBE CLOSING IN ON 50
DEGREES IN THE WARM SECTOR. MIXING TO 925MB IS CONSERVATIVE IN SUCH A
SITUATION AND STILL RESULTED IN TEMPS AROUND 60F. IF CLOUDS AHEAD OF
TROUGH TAKE LONGER TO FORM COULD SEE MANY AREAS IN WESTERN HALF OF
CWA PUSHING WELL INTO THE 60S. COORD WITH GRB AND DLH TO INCREASE MAX
TEMPS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH. YDY MODELS WERE JUST
BEGINNING TO PICK UP ON THE TROUGH...BUT NOW ARE TRYING TO BREAK OUT
SOME QPF AHEAD OF TROUGH. LAPSE RATES ARE STEEP AND SI/S FCST TO FALL
BLO 0C. TRYING TO PIN DOWN DETAILS IN PATTERN KIND OF TOUGH BUT FOR
WHAT IT IS WORTH WARM SECTOR FM UPR MI INTO WI/LOWER MICHIGAN IS
WITHIN RIGHT ENTRANCE JET REGION FORCING. ENOUGH EVIDENCE THERE TO
INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR MOST CWA. IF CURRENT EXPLICIT
GUIDANCE FM GFS AND ECMWF IS CORRECT THEN MAJORITY OF CONVECTION
WOULD OCCUR MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF CWA. HOWEVER IF THE FRONT SLOWS
DOWN JUST A BIT THEN CONVECTION WOULD AFFECT MORE OF THE CWA AS FRONT
WOULD SLIDE THROUGH DURING PEAK HEATING. SPREAD SLIGHT CHANCES /NOTE
THESE DO NOT SHOW UP IN MOST OF OUR FORECAST PRODUCTS BEYOND DAY 3/
FARTHER WEST THAN CONSENSUS GUIDANCE SHOWS. HIGHER CHANCES AT THIS
POINT ONLY OVR FAR EASTERN CWA. BUBBLE HIGH BUILDS IN FOR THURSDAY
WITH DRY WEATHER AND TEMPS STILL RUNNING AOA NORMAL.
AS MENTIONED IN RECENT DISCUSSIONS...THE PROLONGED PERIOD OF WARM
TEMPS/HIGHER DWPNTS AND EVEN SOME RAIN RESULTS IN MOST OF THE
SNOWPACK LIKELY MELTING BY THIS TIME NEXT WEEK. DAYSHIFT ON THURSDAY
ISSUED A HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK WITH DETAILS /ARBESFMQT/. OUR OFFICE
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SNOWMELT AND POTENTIAL AFFECTS ON AREA
RIVERS/STREAMS AND OTHER LOW-LYING AREAS THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM EST FRI MAR 9 2012
EXPECT ONGOING DIMINISHING WINDS AND A TRANSITION TO VFR TO CONTINUE
AS HIGH PRESSURE/DRIER AIR ARRIVE FROM THE W. A STRONGER S WIND WILL
DEVELOP TONIGHT UNDER THE SHARPENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING HIGH AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH S CENTRAL
CANADA. FORECAST LLWS AT CMX/SAW BUT GUSTY WINDS AT IWD AS THIS
LOCATION WILL BE MORE EXPOSED...WITH WINDS BECOMING GUSTY (ENDING
LLWS) SATURDAY MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 425 AM EST FRI MAR 9 2012
WITH NW WINDS JUST OFF THE LAKE SURFACE UP TO 45 KTS AND COLD AIR
BLOWING OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM LK WATERS...EXPECT A HI END GALE
EVENT AT LEAST OVER THE E HALF EARLY THIS MRNG. THERE COULD EVEN BE
SOME WIND GUSTS TOWARD STORM FORCE. THE APPROACH OF HI PRES FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS HAS ALREADY CAUSED WINDS TO DIMINISH OVER THE W...
AND THIS HI WILL BRING DIMINISHING WINDS TO THE E AS WELL BY LATER
THIS MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF HI WAVES/VERY COLD TEMPS WILL ALSO
CAUSE SOME HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY...BUT THIS WILL DIMINISH WITH THE
WINDS. AFTER A FAIRLY TRANQUIL EVENING...EXPECT A S GALE TONIGHT
INTO SAT OVER MAINLY THE E HALF AS THE PRES GRADIENT SHARPENS
BETWEEN THE DEPARTING HI AND LO PRES MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA.
BUT SINCE GALE HEADLINES ARE ALREADY OUT IN THIS AREA...WL NOT ISSUE
ANOTHER HEADLINE FOR NOW. THE ARRIVAL OF A WEAKER PRES GRADIENT WL
CAUSE DIMINISHING WINDS LATER SAT/SAT NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
FM THE PLAINS INTO UPR LAKES ON MONDAY WILL BRING INCREASE IN WINDS...BUT
SPEEDS SHOULD STAY BLO 30 KTS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MIZ006-007-085.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ249>251-266-
267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KC
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...KC/JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
559 AM EST FRI MAR 9 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 425 AM EST FRI MAR 9 2012
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW UPR TROF
STRETCHING FM HUDSON BAY INTO THE GRT LKS DOWNSTREAM OF RDG OVER
WRN NAMERICA. PAIR OF VIGOROUS SHRTWVS DIGGING WITHIN THE UPR TROF
AND OVER ONTARIO AND WI ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A SHARP COLD FNT THAT IS
PUSHING ACRS UPR MI EARLY THIS MRNG AND CAUSED 12-24Z H3 FALLS OVER
200M FM MOOSONEE ONTARIO TO APX. WITH STEEP SFC-H7 LAPSE RATE AND A
GOOD DEAL OF LLVL MSTR SHOWN ON THE 00Z INL RAOB AS WELL AS VIGOROUS
DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC ASSOCIATED MAINLY WITH THE STRONGER WI
SHRTWV/ACCOMPANYING 100KT H5 JET MAX...NMRS SHSN ARE PRECEDING THIS
COLD FROPA. A SHARP PRES RISE CENTER OVER NRN MN BEHIND THIS
DISTURBANCE WITH 3HR PRES RISE UP TO 7MB IS ASSOCIATED WITH VIGOROUS
CAD IN ADVANCE OF H85 THERMAL TROF WITH TEMPS DOWN TO -20C PUSHING
INTO NW ONTARIO. THE ISALLOBARIC WIND WNW WIND IN ADVANCE OF THIS
CENTER IS NEARLY ALIGNED WITH THE GRADIENT NW WIND BEHIND THE COLD
FNT AND HAS RESULTED IN WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 KTS AT SEVERAL OF THE
C-MAN SITES OVER WRN LK SUP. BEHIND THE FNT/THERMAL TROF...12-24Z H3
RISES OVER 200M WERE REPORTED AT THE PAS ONTARIO AND BISMARCK...
INDICATING A PROGRESSIVE UPR FLOW. SFC HI PRES IN ADVANCE OF THE
ROCKIES RDG IS CENTERED OVER NDAKOTA. THE 00Z RAOB FM THE PAS SHOWS
A VERY DRY AIRMASS WITH PWAT 0.07 INCH. THIS DRIER AIR IS SURGING
TOWARD THE UPR LKS...AND AT FCST ISSUANCE THIS DRY AIR APPEARS TO BE
LIMITING LES COVERAGE OVER THE W.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 425 AM EST FRI MAR 9 2012
TDAY...IN THE NEAR TERM...THE SFC COLD FNT WL CLEAR ERY BY FCST
ISSUANCE. AS COLDER/MOISTER H85 AIR SHOWN ON THE 00Z INL/YPL RAOBS
FOLLOW OVER LK SUP...EXPECT LES TO INCRS IN INTENSITY EARLY THIS
MRNG IN THE NW WIND SN BELTS E OF MQT. OVER THE W...THE DRIER AIR
THAT HAS CAUSED QUITE A BIT OF CLRG OVER THE W PORTION OF THE LK WL
LIMIT POPS/ADDITIONAL SN AMOUNTS. THE PRES RISE CENTER IS FCST TO
MOVE JUST TO THE E OF ISLE ROYALE BY 12Z THIS MRNG AND THEN TO JUST
E OF WHITEFISH PT BY 18Z. WITH H925 WINDS UP TO 40-45KTS ACCENTUATED
BY THE ISALLOBARIC WIND AHEAD OF THIS CENTER AND VIGOROUS
CAD/MIXING... EXPECT WIND GUSTS TO REACH NEAR 50 MPH AT EXPOSED
LOCATIONS TO NW WINDS IN ADVANCE OF THIS PRES RISE CENTER. WIND WL
DIMINISH ONCE THE PRES RISE CENTER MOVES TO THE E. SINCE VIGOROUS
DNVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC IS PROGGED TO DVLP OVER THE CWA BY 12Z IN
THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SHRTWV COMPLEX...EXPECT STRONG SUBSIDENCE
THAT IS FCST TO LOWER INVRN AND EVEN DESCEND INTO THE DGZ AS WELL AS
ARRIVAL OF MUCH DRIER LLVL AIR /H925-85 DEWPT DEPRESSIONS 5-10C/ TO
CAUSE THE LES TO DIMINISH FAIRLY QUICKLY W-E. THE TIMING OF THESE
NEGATIVE DYNAMICS/SUBSIDING WINDS/OBSERVED TRENDS SUPPORT THE 12Z
EXPIRATION OF THE HEADLINE FOR THE KEWEENAW. ALTHOUGH THE LONGER
FETCH ACRS LK SUP INTO AREAS E OF MQT WL MAINTAIN SOMEWHAT MORE NMRS
SHSN IN THAT AREA LONGER...OPTED TO CANX THE ADVY FOR THOSE AREAS
AFT 18Z ONCE THE PRES RISE CENTER SHIFTS TO THE E AND WINDS DIMINISH
IN THIS PROGRESSIVE FLOW. OVER THE W AND CNTRL...EXPECT A RETURN OF
SOME SUNSHINE DURING THE AFTN WITH THE SUBSIDENCE/LLVL
DRYING/ARRIVAL OF MORE ACYC FLOW AS SFC HI PRES RDG IS FCST TO REACH
THE CNTRL U.P. BY 00Z. BUT HI TEMPS WL BE WELL BLO NORMAL PER
UPSTREAM HI TEMPS MAINLY IN THE TEENS YDAY IN THE INCOMING AIRMASS
OVER SCNTRL CAN.
TNGT...STRONG WAD PATTERN IS FCST TO SET UP TNGT WITH HI PRES RDG
SHIFTING INTO THE UPR OH RIVER VALLEY UNDER PROGRESSIVE UPR RDG THAT
IS FCST TO RAISE H5 UP TO 80M OVER UPR MI BTWN 00Z-12Z. WITH FALLING
MSLP OVER SCNTRL CAN...S WINDS AT H925 ARE FCST TO INCRS UP 45 TO 50
KT BY 12Z SAT TO THE S OF PRES FALL CENTER PASSING THRU ONTARIO. THE
STRONG WAD IS FCST TO LIFT H85 TEMPS UP TO 7C AT IWD BY DAYBREAK.
ALTHOUGH THIS RETURNING WARM AIR WL SUPPORT A BAND OF CLDS THAT WL
SHIFT W-E ACRS THE UPR LKS...THE INCOMING AIRMASS WL BE FAIRLY DRY
WITH H85 DEWPTS IN THE -10C TO -15C RANGE. SO MODELS APPEAR ON TRACK
SHOWING THE WAD PCPN REMAINING MOSTLY TO THE N OF THE U.P. WITH JUST
A BAND OF THICKER AC/AS INFLUENCING THE CWA. DID RETAIN LO CHC POPS
FOR MAINLY THE NE HALF OF LK SUP. SUSPECT MIN TEMPS WL OCCUR IN THE
EVNG...WITH THE LOWEST READINGS OVER THE E IN THE EVNG. BUT TEMPS
SHOULD RISE OVERNGT WITH STRENGTHENING WINDS/RETURN OF MUCH WARMER
AIR.
SAT...WITH WARM FNT SHIFTING TO THE NE...CWA WL BE IN THE WARM
SECTOR WITH H85 TEMPS FCST IN THE 6-9C RANGE. DRYNESS OF THE
INCOMING AIRMASS SUGS POTENTIAL FOR LO CLDS IS MINIMAL. MIXING TO
JUST H9 ON GFS/NAM FCST SDNGS SUG MAX TEMPS WL PEAK IN THE 50S WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. A STRONG WSW WIND WITH H925 SPEEDS UP TO 35 KT
WL ENHANCE DOWNSLOPE WARMING BTWN BARAGA AND MQT. AREAS OVER THE E
DOWNWIND OF LK MI WL BE COOLEST.
SAT NGT...WITH WEAKENING PRES GRADIENT/DIMINISHING WINDS/MOCLR SKIES
UNDER BLDG UPR RDG IN THE GRT LKS...EXPECT A HEALTHY DIURNAL TEMP
FALL. BUT MIN TEMPS WL STILL BE WELL ABV NORMAL WITH UNSEASONABLY
WARM AIRMASS STILL IN PLACE.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 AM EST FRI MAR 9 2012
STILL ON TRACK TO HAVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SFC LOW OVR THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TO LIFT NORTHEAST AND BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN TO THE UPR LAKES.
MODELS SEEM TO BE LATCHING ONTO A SLOWER TIMING COMPARED TO RUNS FM
THE LAST COUPLE DAYS. BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN SUGGESTS A DRY
FCST FOR SUNDAY. GFS FCST SOUNDINGS AND RH FIELDS FM GFS/ECMWF POINT
TO ABRUPT ARRIVAL OF DEEPER MOISTURE/PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY NIGHT.
RESULT IS A GOOD DISPLAY OF SUNSHINE FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY. MIXING TO
925-900MB INDICATES HIGHS WELL INTO THE 50S FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN
HALF OF CWA. SFC WINDS ARE MAINLY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE
LOW WOULD KEEP MORE LAKE MODIFIED AIR/TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 40S OVR
EASTERN CWA AND ACROSS TIP OF KEWEENAW PENINSULA. RAIN FCST TO BEGIN
TO SPREAD IN FM THE SOUTH ON SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT HAVE DELAYED LIKELY
POPS UNTIL MONDAY WITH ARRIVAL OF UPR LOW AND HIGHER H85 DWPNTS.
RAISED MINS ON SUNDAY NIGHT TO 35-40F GIVEN INCREASING SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND MOISTURE ADVECTION.
IN THE EXTENDED...WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT /MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE
AMOUNTS/ CONTINUES TO COME INTO FOCUS ON MONDAY AND PERHAPS EVEN INTO
MONDAY EVENING. GFS/ECMWF HAVE DEFINITELY TRENDED TOWARD THE SLOWER
PROGRESSION OF THE CANADIAN...NOT EXITING POPS OVER CWA UNTIL MONDAY
EVENING. RAIN AMOUNTS WITH THE SYSTEM PROBABLY WILL END UP FM
0.25-0.50 INCH AS GFS/ECMWF SHOW STRONGEST H85 MOISTURE ADVECTION
JUST GRAZING THE CWA TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. AT THIS POINT...APPEARS
STEADIEST RAIN WILL OCCUR MONDAY MORNING INTO MID MONDAY AFTN. TEMPS
WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL BUT SHOULD BE HELD MAINLY IN THE 40S ON
MONDAY DUE TO THE CLOUDS/RAIN. MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE
MONDAY EVENING THEN SHARP DRYING ALOFT OCCURS AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY
NIGHT. AS LONG AS WINDS ARE NOT TOO STRONG...COULD SEE FOG FORM LATER
MONDAY NIGHT OVER CWA IN WAKE OF THE RAIN SHOWERS.
TUESDAY LOOKING DRY WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY. SFC
RIDGE IS OVER THE AREA SO LK BREEZES SHOULD FORM AND TRIED TO PUT
THIS IN GRIDS. MIXING TO H9 PROBABLY PRETTY GOOD BET WITH EXPECTED
SUNSHINE AND THAT GIVES HIGHS WELL INTO THE 50S IF NOT REACHING 60
DEGREES INLAND TOWARD WI BORDER.
SW FLOW INCREASES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF FAIRLY WELL
AGREED UPON TROUGH ADVANCING INTO UPR LAKES. SHOULD BE QUITE WARM
AHEAD OF TROUGH WITH DWPNTS INTO THE 40S AND MAYBE CLOSING IN ON 50
DEGREES IN THE WARM SECTOR. MIXING TO 925MB IS CONSERVATIVE IN SUCH A
SITUATION AND STILL RESULTED IN TEMPS AROUND 60F. IF CLOUDS AHEAD OF
TROUGH TAKE LONGER TO FORM COULD SEE MANY AREAS IN WESTERN HALF OF
CWA PUSHING WELL INTO THE 60S. COORD WITH GRB AND DLH TO INCREASE MAX
TEMPS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH. YDY MODELS WERE JUST
BEGINNING TO PICK UP ON THE TROUGH...BUT NOW ARE TRYING TO BREAK OUT
SOME QPF AHEAD OF TROUGH. LAPSE RATES ARE STEEP AND SI/S FCST TO FALL
BLO 0C. TRYING TO PIN DOWN DETAILS IN PATTERN KIND OF TOUGH BUT FOR
WHAT IT IS WORTH WARM SECTOR FM UPR MI INTO WI/LOWER MICHIGAN IS
WITHIN RIGHT ENTRANCE JET REGION FORCING. ENOUGH EVIDENCE THERE TO
INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR MOST CWA. IF CURRENT EXPLICIT
GUIDANCE FM GFS AND ECMWF IS CORRECT THEN MAJORITY OF CONVECTION
WOULD OCCUR MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF CWA. HOWEVER IF THE FRONT SLOWS
DOWN JUST A BIT THEN CONVECTION WOULD AFFECT MORE OF THE CWA AS FRONT
WOULD SLIDE THROUGH DURING PEAK HEATING. SPREAD SLIGHT CHANCES /NOTE
THESE DO NOT SHOW UP IN MOST OF OUR FORECAST PRODUCTS BEYOND DAY 3/
FARTHER WEST THAN CONSENSUS GUIDANCE SHOWS. HIGHER CHANCES AT THIS
POINT ONLY OVR FAR EASTERN CWA. BUBBLE HIGH BUILDS IN FOR THURSDAY
WITH DRY WEATHER AND TEMPS STILL RUNNING AOA NORMAL.
AS MENTIONED IN RECENT DISCUSSIONS...THE PROLONGED PERIOD OF WARM
TEMPS/HIGHER DWPNTS AND EVEN SOME RAIN RESULTS IN MOST OF THE
SNOWPACK LIKELY MELTING BY THIS TIME NEXT WEEK. DAYSHIFT ON THURSDAY
ISSUED A HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK WITH DETAILS /ARBESFMQT/. OUR OFFICE
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SNOWMELT AND POTENTIAL AFFECTS ON AREA
RIVERS/STREAMS AND OTHER LOW-LYING AREAS THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 557 AM EST FRI MAR 9 2012
ALTHOUGH GUSTY NW WINDS AND SOME BLSN WL IMPACT MAINLY CMX EARLY IN
THIS FCST PERIOD...EXPECT DIMINISHING WINDS AND A TRANSITION TO VFR
EVERYWHERE AS HI PRES/DRIER AIR ARRIVE FM THE W. A STRONGER S WIND
WL DEVELOP TNGT UNDER THE SHARPENING PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING HI AND A LO PRES MOVING THRU SCNTRL CAN. FCST LLWS AT CMX/
SAW BUT GUSTY WINDS AT IWD AS THIS LOCATION WL BE MORE EXPOSED.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 425 AM EST FRI MAR 9 2012
WITH NW WINDS JUST OFF THE LAKE SURFACE UP TO 45 KTS AND COLD AIR
BLOWING OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM LK WATERS...EXPECT A HI END GALE
EVENT AT LEAST OVER THE E HALF EARLY THIS MRNG. THERE COULD EVEN BE
SOME WIND GUSTS TOWARD STORM FORCE. THE APPROACH OF HI PRES FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS HAS ALREADY CAUSED WINDS TO DIMINISH OVER THE W...
AND THIS HI WILL BRING DIMINISHING WINDS TO THE E AS WELL BY LATER
THIS MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF HI WAVES/VERY COLD TEMPS WILL ALSO
CAUSE SOME HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY...BUT THIS WILL DIMINISH WITH THE
WINDS. AFTER A FAIRLY TRANQUIL EVENING...EXPECT A S GALE TONIGHT
INTO SAT OVER MAINLY THE E HALF AS THE PRES GRADIENT SHARPENS
BETWEEN THE DEPARTING HI AND LO PRES MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA.
BUT SINCE GALE HEADLINES ARE ALREADY OUT IN THIS AREA...WL NOT ISSUE
ANOTHER HEADLINE FOR NOW. THE ARRIVAL OF A WEAKER PRES GRADIENT WL
CAUSE DIMINISHING WINDS LATER SAT/SAT NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
FM THE PLAINS INTO UPR LAKES ON MONDAY WILL BRING INCREASE IN WINDS...BUT
SPEEDS SHOULD STAY BLO 30 KTS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MIZ001-
003.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MIZ006-007-085.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ249>251-266-
267.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ THIS
MORNING FOR LSZ162-240>242-263.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
LSZ243>245-248-264-265.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LSZ243>245-248-264-
265.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST /5 AM CST/ EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
LSZ240>242-263.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KC
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC/JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
432 AM EST FRI MAR 9 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 425 AM EST FRI MAR 9 2012
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW UPR TROF
STRETCHING FM HUDSON BAY INTO THE GRT LKS DOWNSTREAM OF RDG OVER
WRN NAMERICA. PAIR OF VIGOROUS SHRTWVS DIGGING WITHIN THE UPR TROF
AND OVER ONTARIO AND WI ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A SHARP COLD FNT THAT IS
PUSHING ACRS UPR MI EARLY THIS MRNG AND CAUSED 12-24Z H3 FALLS OVER
200M FM MOOSONEE ONTARIO TO APX. WITH STEEP SFC-H7 LAPSE RATE AND A
GOOD DEAL OF LLVL MSTR SHOWN ON THE 00Z INL RAOB AS WELL AS VIGOROUS
DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC ASSOCIATED MAINLY WITH THE STRONGER WI
SHRTWV/ACCOMPANYING 100KT H5 JET MAX...NMRS SHSN ARE PRECEDING THIS
COLD FROPA. A SHARP PRES RISE CENTER OVER NRN MN BEHIND THIS
DISTURBANCE WITH 3HR PRES RISE UP TO 7MB IS ASSOCIATED WITH VIGOROUS
CAD IN ADVANCE OF H85 THERMAL TROF WITH TEMPS DOWN TO -20C PUSHING
INTO NW ONTARIO. THE ISALLOBARIC WIND WNW WIND IN ADVANCE OF THIS
CENTER IS NEARLY ALIGNED WITH THE GRADIENT NW WIND BEHIND THE COLD
FNT AND HAS RESULTED IN WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 KTS AT SEVERAL OF THE
C-MAN SITES OVER WRN LK SUP. BEHIND THE FNT/THERMAL TROF...12-24Z H3
RISES OVER 200M WERE REPORTED AT THE PAS ONTARIO AND BISMARCK...
INDICATING A PROGRESSIVE UPR FLOW. SFC HI PRES IN ADVANCE OF THE
ROCKIES RDG IS CENTERED OVER NDAKOTA. THE 00Z RAOB FM THE PAS SHOWS
A VERY DRY AIRMASS WITH PWAT 0.07 INCH. THIS DRIER AIR IS SURGING
TOWARD THE UPR LKS...AND AT FCST ISSUANCE THIS DRY AIR APPEARS TO BE
LIMITING LES COVERAGE OVER THE W.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 425 AM EST FRI MAR 9 2012
TDAY...IN THE NEAR TERM...THE SFC COLD FNT WL CLEAR ERY BY FCST
ISSUANCE. AS COLDER/MOISTER H85 AIR SHOWN ON THE 00Z INL/YPL RAOBS
FOLLOW OVER LK SUP...EXPECT LES TO INCRS IN INTENSITY EARLY THIS
MRNG IN THE NW WIND SN BELTS E OF MQT. OVER THE W...THE DRIER AIR
THAT HAS CAUSED QUITE A BIT OF CLRG OVER THE W PORTION OF THE LK WL
LIMIT POPS/ADDITIONAL SN AMOUNTS. THE PRES RISE CENTER IS FCST TO
MOVE JUST TO THE E OF ISLE ROYALE BY 12Z THIS MRNG AND THEN TO JUST
E OF WHITEFISH PT BY 18Z. WITH H925 WINDS UP TO 40-45KTS ACCENTUATED
BY THE ISALLOBARIC WIND AHEAD OF THIS CENTER AND VIGOROUS
CAD/MIXING... EXPECT WIND GUSTS TO REACH NEAR 50 MPH AT EXPOSED
LOCATIONS TO NW WINDS IN ADVANCE OF THIS PRES RISE CENTER. WIND WL
DIMINISH ONCE THE PRES RISE CENTER MOVES TO THE E. SINCE VIGOROUS
DNVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC IS PROGGED TO DVLP OVER THE CWA BY 12Z IN
THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SHRTWV COMPLEX...EXPECT STRONG SUBSIDENCE
THAT IS FCST TO LOWER INVRN AND EVEN DESCEND INTO THE DGZ AS WELL AS
ARRIVAL OF MUCH DRIER LLVL AIR /H925-85 DEWPT DEPRESSIONS 5-10C/ TO
CAUSE THE LES TO DIMINISH FAIRLY QUICKLY W-E. THE TIMING OF THESE
NEGATIVE DYNAMICS/SUBSIDING WINDS/OBSERVED TRENDS SUPPORT THE 12Z
EXPIRATION OF THE HEADLINE FOR THE KEWEENAW. ALTHOUGH THE LONGER
FETCH ACRS LK SUP INTO AREAS E OF MQT WL MAINTAIN SOMEWHAT MORE NMRS
SHSN IN THAT AREA LONGER...OPTED TO CANX THE ADVY FOR THOSE AREAS
AFT 18Z ONCE THE PRES RISE CENTER SHIFTS TO THE E AND WINDS DIMINISH
IN THIS PROGRESSIVE FLOW. OVER THE W AND CNTRL...EXPECT A RETURN OF
SOME SUNSHINE DURING THE AFTN WITH THE SUBSIDENCE/LLVL
DRYING/ARRIVAL OF MORE ACYC FLOW AS SFC HI PRES RDG IS FCST TO REACH
THE CNTRL U.P. BY 00Z. BUT HI TEMPS WL BE WELL BLO NORMAL PER
UPSTREAM HI TEMPS MAINLY IN THE TEENS YDAY IN THE INCOMING AIRMASS
OVER SCNTRL CAN.
TNGT...STRONG WAD PATTERN IS FCST TO SET UP TNGT WITH HI PRES RDG
SHIFTING INTO THE UPR OH RIVER VALLEY UNDER PROGRESSIVE UPR RDG THAT
IS FCST TO RAISE H5 UP TO 80M OVER UPR MI BTWN 00Z-12Z. WITH FALLING
MSLP OVER SCNTRL CAN...S WINDS AT H925 ARE FCST TO INCRS UP 45 TO 50
KT BY 12Z SAT TO THE S OF PRES FALL CENTER PASSING THRU ONTARIO. THE
STRONG WAD IS FCST TO LIFT H85 TEMPS UP TO 7C AT IWD BY DAYBREAK.
ALTHOUGH THIS RETURNING WARM AIR WL SUPPORT A BAND OF CLDS THAT WL
SHIFT W-E ACRS THE UPR LKS...THE INCOMING AIRMASS WL BE FAIRLY DRY
WITH H85 DEWPTS IN THE -10C TO -15C RANGE. SO MODELS APPEAR ON TRACK
SHOWING THE WAD PCPN REMAINING MOSTLY TO THE N OF THE U.P. WITH JUST
A BAND OF THICKER AC/AS INFLUENCING THE CWA. DID RETAIN LO CHC POPS
FOR MAINLY THE NE HALF OF LK SUP. SUSPECT MIN TEMPS WL OCCUR IN THE
EVNG...WITH THE LOWEST READINGS OVER THE E IN THE EVNG. BUT TEMPS
SHOULD RISE OVERNGT WITH STRENGTHENING WINDS/RETURN OF MUCH WARMER
AIR.
SAT...WITH WARM FNT SHIFTING TO THE NE...CWA WL BE IN THE WARM
SECTOR WITH H85 TEMPS FCST IN THE 6-9C RANGE. DRYNESS OF THE
INCOMING AIRMASS SUGS POTENTIAL FOR LO CLDS IS MINIMAL. MIXING TO
JUST H9 ON GFS/NAM FCST SDNGS SUG MAX TEMPS WL PEAK IN THE 50S WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. A STRONG WSW WIND WITH H925 SPEEDS UP TO 35 KT
WL ENHANCE DOWNSLOPE WARMING BTWN BARAGA AND MQT. AREAS OVER THE E
DOWNWIND OF LK MI WL BE COOLEST.
SAT NGT...WITH WEAKENING PRES GRADIENT/DIMINISHING WINDS/MOCLR SKIES
UNDER BLDG UPR RDG IN THE GRT LKS...EXPECT A HEALTHY DIURNAL TEMP
FALL. BUT MIN TEMPS WL STILL BE WELL ABV NORMAL WITH UNSEASONABLY
WARM AIRMASS STILL IN PLACE.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 AM EST FRI MAR 9 2012
STILL ON TRACK TO HAVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SFC LOW OVR THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TO LIFT NORTHEAST AND BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN TO THE UPR LAKES.
MODELS SEEM TO BE LATCHING ONTO A SLOWER TIMING COMPARED TO RUNS FM
THE LAST COUPLE DAYS. BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN SUGGESTS A DRY
FCST FOR SUNDAY. GFS FCST SOUNDINGS AND RH FIELDS FM GFS/ECMWF POINT
TO ABRUPT ARRIVAL OF DEEPER MOISTURE/PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY NIGHT.
RESULT IS A GOOD DISPLAY OF SUNSHINE FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY. MIXING TO
925-900MB INDICATES HIGHS WELL INTO THE 50S FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN
HALF OF CWA. SFC WINDS ARE MAINLY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE
LOW WOULD KEEP MORE LAKE MODIFIED AIR/TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 40S OVR
EASTERN CWA AND ACROSS TIP OF KEWEENAW PENINSULA. RAIN FCST TO BEGIN
TO SPREAD IN FM THE SOUTH ON SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT HAVE DELAYED LIKELY
POPS UNTIL MONDAY WITH ARRIVAL OF UPR LOW AND HIGHER H85 DWPNTS.
RAISED MINS ON SUNDAY NIGHT TO 35-40F GIVEN INCREASING SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND MOISTURE ADVECTION.
IN THE EXTENDED...WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT /MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE
AMOUNTS/ CONTINUES TO COME INTO FOCUS ON MONDAY AND PERHAPS EVEN INTO
MONDAY EVENING. GFS/ECMWF HAVE DEFINITELY TRENDED TOWARD THE SLOWER
PROGRESSION OF THE CANADIAN...NOT EXITING POPS OVER CWA UNTIL MONDAY
EVENING. RAIN AMOUNTS WITH THE SYSTEM PROBABLY WILL END UP FM
0.25-0.50 INCH AS GFS/ECMWF SHOW STRONGEST H85 MOISTURE ADVECTION
JUST GRAZING THE CWA TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. AT THIS POINT...APPEARS
STEADIEST RAIN WILL OCCUR MONDAY MORNING INTO MID MONDAY AFTN. TEMPS
WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL BUT SHOULD BE HELD MAINLY IN THE 40S ON
MONDAY DUE TO THE CLOUDS/RAIN. MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE
MONDAY EVENING THEN SHARP DRYING ALOFT OCCURS AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY
NIGHT. AS LONG AS WINDS ARE NOT TOO STRONG...COULD SEE FOG FORM LATER
MONDAY NIGHT OVER CWA IN WAKE OF THE RAIN SHOWERS.
TUESDAY LOOKING DRY WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY. SFC
RIDGE IS OVER THE AREA SO LK BREEZES SHOULD FORM AND TRIED TO PUT
THIS IN GRIDS. MIXING TO H9 PROBABLY PRETTY GOOD BET WITH EXPECTED
SUNSHINE AND THAT GIVES HIGHS WELL INTO THE 50S IF NOT REACHING 60
DEGREES INLAND TOWARD WI BORDER.
SW FLOW INCREASES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF FAIRLY WELL
AGREED UPON TROUGH ADVANCING INTO UPR LAKES. SHOULD BE QUITE WARM
AHEAD OF TROUGH WITH DWPNTS INTO THE 40S AND MAYBE CLOSING IN ON 50
DEGREES IN THE WARM SECTOR. MIXING TO 925MB IS CONSERVATIVE IN SUCH A
SITUATION AND STILL RESULTED IN TEMPS AROUND 60F. IF CLOUDS AHEAD OF
TROUGH TAKE LONGER TO FORM COULD SEE MANY AREAS IN WESTERN HALF OF
CWA PUSHING WELL INTO THE 60S. COORD WITH GRB AND DLH TO INCREASE MAX
TEMPS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH. YDY MODELS WERE JUST
BEGINNING TO PICK UP ON THE TROUGH...BUT NOW ARE TRYING TO BREAK OUT
SOME QPF AHEAD OF TROUGH. LAPSE RATES ARE STEEP AND SI/S FCST TO FALL
BLO 0C. TRYING TO PIN DOWN DETAILS IN PATTERN KIND OF TOUGH BUT FOR
WHAT IT IS WORTH WARM SECTOR FM UPR MI INTO WI/LOWER MICHIGAN IS
WITHIN RIGHT ENTRANCE JET REGION FORCING. ENOUGH EVIDENCE THERE TO
INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR MOST CWA. IF CURRENT EXPLICIT
GUIDANCE FM GFS AND ECMWF IS CORRECT THEN MAJORITY OF CONVECTION
WOULD OCCUR MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF CWA. HOWEVER IF THE FRONT SLOWS
DOWN JUST A BIT THEN CONVECTION WOULD AFFECT MORE OF THE CWA AS FRONT
WOULD SLIDE THROUGH DURING PEAK HEATING. SPREAD SLIGHT CHANCES /NOTE
THESE DO NOT SHOW UP IN MOST OF OUR FORECAST PRODUCTS BEYOND DAY 3/
FARTHER WEST THAN CONSENSUS GUIDANCE SHOWS. HIGHER CHANCES AT THIS
POINT ONLY OVR FAR EASTERN CWA. BUBBLE HIGH BUILDS IN FOR THURSDAY
WITH DRY WEATHER AND TEMPS STILL RUNNING AOA NORMAL.
AS MENTIONED IN RECENT DISCUSSIONS...THE PROLONGED PERIOD OF WARM
TEMPS/HIGHER DWPNTS AND EVEN SOME RAIN RESULTS IN MOST OF THE
SNOWPACK LIKELY MELTING BY THIS TIME NEXT WEEK. DAYSHIFT ON THURSDAY
ISSUED A HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK WITH DETAILS /ARBESFMQT/. OUR OFFICE
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SNOWMELT AND POTENTIAL AFFECTS ON AREA
RIVERS/STREAMS AND OTHER LOW-LYING AREAS THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1156 PM EST THU MAR 8 2012
DISTURBANCE AND STRONG COLD FRONT WILL EXIT TO THE SE OVERNIGHT.
STRONG/GUSTY NW WINDS BEHIND FRONT WILL FAVOR KCMX FOR THE WORST
CONDITIONS. WITH WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 35KT...-SHSN/BLSN WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN LIFR CONDITIONS THERE FOR A FEW HRS INITIALLY. IFR
CONDITIONS WILL START THE PERIOD AT KIWD. CONDITIONS AT KCMX/KIWD
WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE OVERNIGHT AS DRIER AIR/SUBSIDENCE BEHIND
DISTURBANCE WORKS TO DIMINISH LAKE EFFECT -SHSN. WHILE KIWD WILL
IMPROVE TO MVFR...GUSTY WINDS/BLSN MAY MAINTAIN IFR CONDITIONS THRU
THE NIGHT AT KCMX. AT KSAW...CONDITIONS MAY BE QUITE VARIABLE OVER
THE NEXT FEW HRS. ALTHOUGH MVFR SHOULD GENERALLY PREVAIL...HEAVIER
SHSN FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS MAY BRING BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR. WITH
APPROACHING HIGH PRES BACKING WINDS/START OF WAA...MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE TO VFR EARLY AFTN AT KIWD AND BY LATE AFTN AT
KCMX/KSAW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 425 AM EST FRI MAR 9 2012
WITH NW WINDS JUST OFF THE LAKE SURFACE UP TO 45 KTS AND COLD AIR
BLOWING OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM LK WATERS...EXPECT A HI END GALE
EVENT AT LEAST OVER THE E HALF EARLY THIS MRNG. THERE COULD EVEN BE
SOME WIND GUSTS TOWARD STORM FORCE. THE APPROACH OF HI PRES FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS HAS ALREADY CAUSED WINDS TO DIMINISH OVER THE W...
AND THIS HI WILL BRING DIMINISHING WINDS TO THE E AS WELL BY LATER
THIS MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF HI WAVES/VERY COLD TEMPS WILL ALSO
CAUSE SOME HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY...BUT THIS WILL DIMINISH WITH THE
WINDS. AFTER A FAIRLY TRANQUIL EVENING...EXPECT A S GALE TONIGHT
INTO SAT OVER MAINLY THE E HALF AS THE PRES GRADIENT SHARPENS
BETWEEN THE DEPARTING HI AND LO PRES MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA.
BUT SINCE GALE HEADLINES ARE ALREADY OUT IN THIS AREA...WL NOT ISSUE
ANOTHER HEADLINE FOR NOW. THE ARRIVAL OF A WEAKER PRES GRADIENT WL
CAUSE DIMINISHING WINDS LATER SAT/SAT NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
FM THE PLAINS INTO UPR LAKES ON MONDAY WILL BRING INCREASE IN WINDS...BUT
SPEEDS SHOULD STAY BLO 30 KTS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MIZ001-
003.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MIZ006-007-085.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ249>251-266-
267.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ THIS
MORNING FOR LSZ162-240>242-263.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
LSZ243>245-248-264-265.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LSZ243>245-248-264-
265.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST /5 AM CST/ EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
LSZ240>242-263.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KC
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KC/JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
322 PM EST FRI MAR 9 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST THIS EVENING... FOLLOWED
BY A CHILLY NORTHWEST FLOW TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SNOW SHOWERS
OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING... EXCEPT FOR A FEW BANDS OF LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW
PERSISTING INTO THE MORNING HOURS ON SATURDAY. DRY... COLD WEATHER
IS EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER WILL
RETURN ON SUNDAY... WITH SEVERAL DAYS OF WARM WEATHER EXPECTED
THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
500 MB TROUGH AND VORTICITY MAX WILL TRACK ACROSS AND EAST OF THE
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. WIDESPREAD SNOW
SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER SQUALLS WILL DIMINISH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING.
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP FROM CENTRAL
NEW ENGLAND WNW BACK TOWARD LAKE ONTARIO THIS EVENING IN RESPONSE
TO THE SHORT WAVE MOVING EAST FROM NY ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THAT TROUGH
ALONG WITH SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT WITH A FLOW FROM AROUND 290
DEGREES AND 850 MB TEMP FROM -10 TO -12 SHOULD HELP TO ORGANIZE
SNOW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKE IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY THIS
EVENING. VSBL SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GREAT
LAKES INDICATE THAT THE ATMOSPHERE IS CURRENTLY SUPPORTING SOME
WNW ORIENTED SNOW BANDS OVER MICHIGAN CURRENTLY... AND THESE
SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO OUR AREA THIS EVENING WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT
BY THE SURFACE TROUGH. SOUTH OF THESE BANDS EXPECT JUST A FEW
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. THIS SCENARIO IS SUPPORTED BY THE HIGH
RESOLUTION HRRR AND 4 KM NAM.
THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT SHIFTING TO
AROUND 320 TO 330 DEGREES AFTER MIDNIGHT. THAT SHOULD ALLOW SOME
LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS TO SHIFT SOUTH TOWARD THE FINGER LAKES
OVERNIGHT. OVERALL EXPECT SNOW AMOUNTS TONIGHT SOUTHEAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO TO BE LIGHT AS TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE MARGINALLY COLD
ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT... WINDS WILL NOT BE VERY STRONG AND THE
INVERSION WILL BE LOWERING. NIGHT-TIME ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 4
INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS PROBABLY IN THE HILLS
SOUTH SYRACUSE AND MOHAWK VALLEY. CONCERN WOULD BE FOR LOCALLY
HEAVIER AMOUNTS IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
SURFACE TROUGH... BUT EXPECT THAT THIS BAND WILL NOT ORGANIZE
EARLY ENOUGH TO PERSIST FOR LONG BEFORE IT SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH
WITH THE WIND SHIFT TO NORTHWEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
VERY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD. ANY FLURRIES
SOUTHEAST OF THE FINGER LAKES SHOULD DIMINISH BY NOON ON
SATURDAY... WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BY
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT BEFORE A LONG PERIOD OF WARM WEATHER. AFTER A CHILLY START
SUNDAY MORNING EXPECT SUNSHINE AND RAPIDLY WARMING TEMPERATURES
DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH ALL AREAS RECOVERING WELL INTO THE
50S... AND SOME LOWER 60S POSSIBLE OVER THE LAKE PLAIN.
NEXT CHC OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL BE MONDAY AS A CLOSED UPPER
LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARD THE GREAT
LAKES. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THIS SCENARIO ON MONDAY... ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY FARTHER
EAST WITH SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION. AT THIS POINT A LOW CHC POP
SHOULD COVER THINGS FOR MONDAY WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS OVER THE
WESTERN PART OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME
WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL 500MB
HEIGHTS AND MILD CONDITIONS.
TWO SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD. A SFC LOW WILL
MOVE FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO EASTERN CANADA. MODEL
CONSENSUS IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN YESTERDAY SO WILL INCLUDE CHC
POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS BOTH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOOKS DRY WITH BUILDING H5 HEIGHTS
AND SFC HIGH PRES IN THE VCNTY. A SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH EASTERN
CANADA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. GFS MUCH STRONGER WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL WAVE
THROUGH EASTERN CANADA AND RESULTING SFC LOW COMPARED TO THE
ECMWF. FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE WHICH LEANED TOWARD THE GFS.
INCLUDED CHC POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT,
FOLLOWED BY DRY WEATHER ON FRIDAY.
TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL MORE IN LINE
WITH LATE APRIL NORMALS, WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 40S AND HIGHS UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL BOUNCE FROM VFR
TO MVFR AND EVEN IFR AS SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS MOVE FROM WEST TO
EAST. CIGS AND VSBYS COULD BOTH BE AFFECTED, ALTHOUGH, SO FAR,
THEY ARE NOT NECESSARILY DROPPING WITH EACH SHOWER. GIVEN THIS,
HAVE USED TEMPO GROUPS TO INDICATE POSSIBLE CONDITIONS UNDER THESE
SHOWERS. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT THIS EVENING AND LAKE EFFECT
SNOW WILL DEVELOP. THE MAIN TAF SITES AFFECTED WILL BE SYR AND
ITH, GIVEN THE FLOW WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST. RME MAY SEE SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS, AS WELL AS ELM AND BGM. AVP LOOKS TO SEE A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON, BUT MOST LIKELY WILL NOT SEE ANY
LAKE EFFECT SNOW. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
WINDS ARE GENERALLY WESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 10KTS. THEY
WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY LATE THIS EVENING AND SHOULD INCREASE A
BIT TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15KTS.TOMORROW THEY WILL CONTINUE TO BE NW
BUT DECREASE TO 5 TO 10KTS.
.OUTLOOK...
SAT/SUN...VFR.
MON...MAINLY VFR. PSBL MVFR IN LATE DAY SHWRS.
TUE...VFR WITH PSBL MVFR IN -SHRA.
WED...VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...MSE
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...SLI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
258 PM EST FRI MAR 9 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST THIS EVENING... FOLLOWED
BY A CHILLY NORTHWEST FLOW TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SNOW SHOWERS
OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING... EXCEPT FOR A FEW BANDS OF LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW
PERSISTING INTO THE MORNING HOURS ON SATURDAY. DRY... COLD WEATHER
IS EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER WILL
RETURN ON SUNDAY... WITH SEVERAL DAYS OF WARM WEATHER EXPECTED
THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
500 MB TROUGH AND VORTICITY MAX WILL TRACK ACROSS AND EAST OF THE
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. WIDESPREAD SNOW
SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER SQUALLS WILL DIMINISH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING.
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP FROM CENTRAL
NEW ENGLAND WNW BACK TOWARD LAKE ONTARIO THIS EVENING IN RESPONSE
TO THE SHORT WAVE MOVING EAST FROM NY ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THAT TROUGH
ALONG WITH SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT WITH A FLOW FROM AROUND 290
DEGREES AND 850 MB TEMP FROM -10 TO -12 SHOULD HELP TO ORGANIZE
SNOW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKE IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY THIS
EVENING. VSBL SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GREAT
LAKES INDICATE THAT THE ATMOSPHERE IS CURRENTLY SUPPORTING SOME
WNW ORIENTED SNOW BANDS OVER MICHIGAN CURRENTLY... AND THESE
SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO OUR AREA THIS EVENING WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT
BY THE SURFACE TROUGH. SOUTH OF THESE BANDS EXPECT JUST A FEW
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. THIS SCENARIO IS SUPPORTED BY THE HIGH
RESOLUTION HRRR AND 4 KM NAM.
THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT SHIFTING TO
AROUND 320 TO 330 DEGREES AFTER MIDNIGHT. THAT SHOULD ALLOW SOME
LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS TO SHIFT SOUTH TOWARD THE FINGER LAKES
OVERNIGHT. OVERALL EXPECT SNOW AMOUNTS TONIGHT SOUTHEAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO TO BE LIGHT AS TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE MARGINALLY COLD
ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT... WINDS WILL NOT BE VERY STRONG AND THE
INVERSION WILL BE LOWERING. NIGHT-TIME ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 4
INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS PROBABLY IN THE HILLS
SOUTH SYRACUSE AND MOHAWK VALLEY. CONCERN WOULD BE FOR LOCALLY
HEAVIER AMOUNTS IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
SURFACE TROUGH... BUT EXPECT THAT THIS BAND WILL NOT ORGANIZE
EARLY ENOUGH TO PERSIST FOR LONG BEFORE IT SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH
WITH THE WIND SHIFT TO NORTHWEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VERY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD. ANY FLURRIES
SOUTHEAST OF THE FINGER LAKES SHOULD DIMINISH BY NOON ON
SATURDAY... WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BY
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT BEFORE A LONG PERIOD OF WARM WEATHER. AFTER A CHILLY START
SUNDAY MORNING EXPECT SUNSHINE AND RAPIDLY WARMING TEMPERATURES
DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH ALL AREAS RECOVERING WELL INTO THE
50S... AND SOME LOWER 60S POSSIBLE OVER THE LAKE PLAIN.
NEXT CHC OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL BE MONDAY AS A CLOSED UPPER
LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARD THE GREAT
LAKES. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THIS SCENARIO ON MONDAY... ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY FARTHER
EAST WITH SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION. AT THIS POINT A LOW CHC POP
SHOULD COVER THINGS FOR MONDAY WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS OVER THE
WESTERN PART OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
330 AM FRI UPDATE... NO CHANGES MADE TO THE GRIDS ATTM...AS MODEL
CONSENSUS FOR THE 00Z FRI CYCLE IS REASONABLY WELL REPRESENTED IN
OUR LATEST FCST.
EC/GFS/CMC AGREEMENT IS VERY GOOD ON THE LARGE-SCALE NEXT
WEEK...WITH A FAIRLY DEEP TROUGH NEAR THE WEST COAST...A MEAN RIDGE
AXIS FROM THE GOMEX TO THE MID-ATL COAST...AND A BROAD MILD SWLY FLOW
PATN COVERING MOST OF THE CONUS.
DAILY WX-WISE...A PROGRESSIVE UPR-LVL WAVE AND ASSOCD SFC TROUGH ARE
STILL EXPECTED TO PUSH ACRS NY/PA MON INTO MON NGT...WITH AT LEAST
SCTD -SHRA. THE NEXT DISTURBANCE AND WEAK SFC BNDRY AREN`T SLATED TO
ARRIVE TIL THU...BRINGING THE NEXT ROUND OF SHWRS. IN BETWEEN...TUE
AND WED LOOK RAIN-FREE...WITH WELL ABV NORMAL TEMPS FOR MID-MAR.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 50S AND 60S
EACH DAY. IN FACT...IF ENOUGH OF A WARM AIR PUSH DEVELOPS AHD OF THE
LATE WEEK FROPA MENTIONED ABV...A RUN AT 70 DEGS WOULDN`T AT ALL BE
INCONCEIVABLE FOR WED. TIME WILL TELL.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL BOUNCE FROM VFR
TO MVFR AND EVEN IFR AS SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS MOVE FROM WEST TO
EAST. CIGS AND VSBYS COULD BOTH BE AFFECTED, ALTHOUGH, SO FAR,
THEY ARE NOT NECESSARILY DROPPING WITH EACH SHOWER. GIVEN THIS,
HAVE USED TEMPO GROUPS TO INDICATE POSSIBLE CONDITIONS UNDER THESE
SHOWERS. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT THIS EVENING AND LAKE EFFECT
SNOW WILL DEVELOP. THE MAIN TAF SITES AFFECTED WILL BE SYR AND
ITH, GIVEN THE FLOW WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST. RME MAY SEE SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS, AS WELL AS ELM AND BGM. AVP LOOKS TO SEE A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON, BUT MOST LIKELY WILL NOT SEE ANY
LAKE EFFECT SNOW. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
WINDS ARE GENERALLY WESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 10KTS. THEY
WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY LATE THIS EVENING AND SHOULD INCREASE A
BIT TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15KTS.TOMORROW THEY WILL CONTINUE TO BE NW
BUT DECREASE TO 5 TO 10KTS.
.OUTLOOK...
SAT/SUN...VFR.
MON...MAINLY VFR. PSBL MVFR IN LATE DAY SHWRS.
TUE...VFR WITH PSBL MVFR IN -SHRA.
WED...VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...MSE
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...SLI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
303 AM EST FRI MAR 9 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...BRINGING SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITH COOLING AND CLEARING TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. FAIR AND
WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE MAINTAINS A MILD CIRCULATION OVER THE AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...PICTURES FROM SPACE SHOW A COLD FRONT MOVING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS MORNING. MOSAIC RADAR LOOPS
SHOW A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN STUDDED WITH MODERATE SHOWERS ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. REPORTING STATIONS WERE AVERAGING 0.10 INCH-
PER-HOUR RAIN AMOUNTS WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TALLIES NOTED. TIMING
WISE...THE FRONT SHOULD BE AT OUR INTERIOR MID TO LATE MORNING
THEN ACROSS THE COAST IN THE EARLY AND MID AFTERNOON. LIMITED
STRENGTH AND INSTABILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM DICTATES CONVECTION BUT
NO THUNDER. HISTORICALLY THE BRUNT OF RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM
HAS REMAINED AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
WITH CLOUDS QUICKLY MOVING AND LITTLE INSOLATION EXPECTED THINK
WE CAN KEEP MAXIMUM TEMPS HELD IN THE 60S TODAY. SHARP MID AND LOW
LEVEL DRYING OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY WILL BRING CLEARING BY
DAYBREAK. THIS COUPLED WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION OVERNIGHT SHOULD
YIELD UPPER 30S INLAND AND NORTH...TO THE LOWER AND MID 40S EAST
AND SOUTH ZONES AT FIRST LIGHT OF SATURDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...A COOL...BUT SUNNY AND QUIET WKND ON TAP FOR
THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA
SATURDAY MORNING...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH FROM
THE MID-ATLANTIC CREATING COOL NE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. 850MB
TEMPS WILL ONLY REACH AROUND 3C...BUT SINCE MIXING WILL NOT EVEN
REACH THIS LEVEL LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES ARE A BETTER PREDICTOR OF MAX
TEMPS SATURDAY...AND 1000-900MB THICKNESSES SUPPORT MAX TEMPS MORE
TYPICAL OF MID JANUARY THAN EARLY MARCH...MID 50S NORTH TO LOW 60S
SOUTH. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL SETTLE DOWN INTO THE MID 30S MOST
LOCATIONS...WITH JUST ENOUGH WIND TO PREVENT IDEAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING. A FEW COOL SPOTS MAY DROP AS LOW AS 30 THOUGH...AND SOME
FROST OR A LIGHT FREEZE IS POSSIBLE EARLY SUNDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS OFFSHORE DURING SUNDAY ALLOWING WINDS TO VEER
TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AND ADVECT WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION.
TEMPS RECOVER TO NEAR CLIMO FOR BOTH MAX AND MIN WITH ANOTHER DAY OF
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...A PATTERN MORE TYPICAL OF EARLY SUMMER IS
PROGGED TO DEVELOP EARLY WEEK AND PERSIST THROUGH THE EXTENDED...AS
UPPER RIDGING AND SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE BECOME ENTRENCHED ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST.
UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS MONDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...AND GUIDANCE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE RIDGE AXIS WILL ELONGATE SW-TO-NE ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HEIGHTS EXCEEDING 580DM. THIS
RIDGE FLATTENS A BIT TUE/WED AS POTENT SHORTWAVE PUSHES A FRONT
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC. THIS FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO GET CLOSE TO
OUR AREA...AND BELIEVE THE ECMWF DEPICTION OF PRECIP TUE NIGHT IS
OVERDONE SINCE IT WILL BE QUITE DIFFICULT TO OVERCOME THE STRONG
UPPER RIDGE AND PERSISTENT SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. WILL KEEP SCHC POP
TUE/WED FOR POTENTIAL THOUGH...AND THIS WILL BE THE ONLY RAIN
CHANCES IN THE EXTENDED. 500MB HEIGHTS REBUILD WED/THU...AND HPC
DEPICTS ANOMALIES OF 100M OR MORE IN THE DAYS 3-8 TIME FRAME. THIS
COMBINED WITH 850MB TEMPS RISING TO 10C OR HIGHER THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK SUPPORTS SURFACE HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S EACH DAY AWAY FROM
THE BEACHES...WITH LOWS ONLY AROUND 50.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...LATEST RUC AND NAM SLOW DOWN THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF
THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH
CATEGORICAL POPS DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON
FROM THE INLAND TERMINALS TO THE COAST. HAVE MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST SLOWING DOWN THE PRECIP AND KEEPING
CEILINGS VFR TIL ABOUT 09Z ACROSS THE INLAND TERMINALS AND 12Z ALONG
THE COAST AND THEN DOWN TO MVFR FOR THE TERMINALS...AFTER 15Z
MENTION CHANCE IFR FOR LBT AND FLO IN CEILINGS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE
WITH FROPA FROM WEST TO EAST STARTING AFTER 18Z INLAND AND AFTER 21Z
NEAR THE COAST. WILL MENTION PROB GROUP ALONG THE COAST TIL ABOUT
10/00Z AS PRECIP LINGERS NEAR THE COAST AND COULD IMPACT THE
TERMINALS. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE WEST AND EVENTUALLY NORTH WITH THE
FROPA DURING THE DAY.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE FOR MORNING FOG MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FLAGS IN PLACE FOR SE
WAVES OF 4-6 FEET IN 8-9 SECOND INTERVALS. THE FETCH THAT PRODUCED
THIS ENERGY IN NO LONGER CONTRIBUTING AND WINDS WILL EASE THROUGH
THE MORNING. THUS THINK BY MIDDAY WE CAN DROP THE SEA ADVISORY AS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS DECREASE. WE MAY NEED AN ADVISORY TONIGHT
FOR GUSTY N WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT A CAUTION STATEMENT MAY
BE CONSIDERED DUE TO MARGINAL NATURE. BUMPY SEAS TONIGHT AS N-NW
WINDS TEAR ACROSS RESIDUAL SE WAVE ENERGY. NO TSTMS EXPECTED ON
THE WATERS WITH THIS SYSTEM. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM WSW TO NNW IN
THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...GUSTY NE WINDS TO START THE PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN THE COAST BEHIND A COLD FRONT. THESE WINDS WILL
CREATE SEAS OF 5-7 FT THROUGH SAT AFTN EXCEPT IN THE FAVORED
SHADOWED AREA SW OF FRYING PAN SHOALS...AND AN ONGOING SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH SAT NIGHT BEFORE SEAS FALL TO
3-5 FT EARLY SUNDAY. THE WAVE SPECTRUM WILL INITIALLY BE DOMINATED
BY LARGE NE WIND WAVES...BUT AS WINDS EASE DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE
RETREATING OFFSHORE...THE RESIDUAL SE SWELL WILL BECOME MORE
NOTICEABLE. ON SUNDAY...WINDS FALL TO LESS THAN 10 KTS AND BECOME
MORE EASTERLY. EVEN WITH THE VERY LIGHT WINDS...SEAS WILL REMAIN 3-4
FT...MOSTLY DUE TO A 3FT/10SEC SE SWELL.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...FAIRLY UNIFORM WIND AND WAVE CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE SITTING
OFFSHORE CREATES SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS...BUT AT
SPEEDS LESS THAN 10 KTS. THIS CREATES VERY WEAK WIND WAVES OF ONLY
1-2 FT ON TOP OF A CONTINUING...BUT SLIGHTLY DECAYING...3 FT SE
SWELL. THESE COMBINE TO CREATE 3-4 FT SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-
256.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...MJC/MAC
MARINE...MJC/JDW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1239 AM EST FRI MAR 9 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...BRINGING SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITH COOLING AND CLEARING TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. FAIR AND
WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE MAINTAINS A MILD CIRCULATION OVER THE AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 9:50 PM THURSDAY...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENT ZONE PRODUCED LIGHT
SHOWERS ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES THIS EVENING...AND THESE WILL
AFFECT THE NEW HANOVER COAST FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...SSW FLOW WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT AND HOLD DEWPOINTS AND LOW TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S
MOST AREAS. CHANCE OF RAIN WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT...AND BASED
ON LATEST RADAR MOSAIC...DONT EXPECT ACTIVITY TO MAKE IT INTO THE
CWA UNTIL PROBABLY AFTER 09Z.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT PLOWING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
MIDWESTERN STATES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN CAROLINAS DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY...USHERING IN A MUCH COLDER CANADIAN AIRMASS FOR
THE WEEKEND. DEEP MOISTURE CURRENTLY ON AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL ADVECT EAST AND OUR PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL INCREASE
TO AROUND 1.4 INCHES BY 18Z FRIDAY. SYNOPTIC LIFT WILL BE THE
LIMITING FACTOR CONCERNING HOW MUCH OF THIS MOISTURE ACTUALLY GETS
SQUEEZED OUT AS MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. THE 300 MB JET STREAK
CURRENTLY ENHANCING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL PEEL OUT TO THE NORTHEAST...REMAINING TOO FAR NORTH TO
HELP US OUT IN THE CAROLINAS. A WEAK 500 MB DISTURBANCE WELL SOUTH
OF THE STRONG VORTICITY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS FRIDAY...WITH AT LEAST
SEVERAL HOURS OF NVA AND IMPLIED SINKING MOTION FOLLOWING THE
DISTURBANCE. INSTABILITY APPEARS VERY LIMITED (IF NOT ZERO
ALTOGETHER) AS MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE AT OR LESS THAN MOIST-
ADIABATIC THROUGHOUT THE EVENT...AND LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES NEVER
BECOME GREAT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE NEAR-SURFACE BASED CAPE.
ALL THIS POINTS TO MID-RANGE POPS WITH LOW QPF...NOT TOO
DISSIMILAR TO OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST. FORECAST POPS RANGE FROM 70
PERCENT IN THE LUMBERTON-BENNETTSVILLE AREA TO AROUND 50 PERCENT
FROM MYRTLE BEACH TO GEORGETOWN...WITH LESS THAN TWO-TENTHS OF AN
INCH OF RAIN FORECAST ANYWHERE.
SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT AS 1038 MB HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST DROPS SOUTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
SATURDAY EVENING...WITH CHILLY NORTH WINDS TURNING NORTHEASTERLY
SATURDAY NIGHT.
GIVEN THE LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED FRIDAY I LIKE THE
PREVIOUS FORECASTS IDEA OF FRIDAY HIGHS WELL ABOVE THE 12Z GFS
MOS...GENERALLY MID TO UPPER 60S. AN IMPRESSIVE SHOT OF COLD
ADVECTION FRIDAY NIGHT WILL DROP LOWS INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE STUCK IN THE 50S DESPITE FULL
SUNSHINE. AS WINDS DIE AWAY SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE
30S...WITH THE FAVORED COLD SPOTS IN SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
LIKELY RECEIVING FROST IF NOT FREEZING TEMPERATURES.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE JUST TO OUR WEST ON
SUNDAY WHILE SURFACE HIGH RIDGES INTO THE CAROLINAS FROM POINTS
NORTH AND EAST. END RESULT WILL BE A FAIRLY DRY COLUMN SAVE FOR A
THIN LAYER OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE (PROBABLY SCATTERED CU AND SC) AND
NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPS. THESE FEATURES TRANSLATE EASTWARD BY MONDAY
PAVING THE WAY FOR WARM ADVECTION AND A RETURN OF 70 DEGREE WARMTH.
MUCH OF THIS WILL HOLD TRUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK ALTHOUGH
THE MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE DECREASING IN AMPLITUDE/STRENGTH. BY
THURSDAY THE RIDGE MAY HAVE BROKEN DOWN ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME
WEAK SHORTWAVES TO START CROSSING THE REGION. THIS PAIRED WITH WEAK
MOISTURE ADVECTION THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD SHOULD LEAD TO
INCREASED CLOUDINESS BUT SEEMINGLY NOT ANY MENTIONABLE RAINFALL
CHANCES.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...LATEST RUC AND NAM SLOW DOWN THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF
THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH
CATEGORICAL POPS DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON
FROM THE INLAND TERMINALS TO THE COAST. HAVE MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST SLOWING DOWN THE PRECIP AND KEEPING
CEILINGS VFR TIL ABOUT 09Z ACROSS THE INLAND TERMINALS AND 12Z ALONG
THE COAST AND THEN DOWN TO MVFR FOR THE TERMINALS...AFTER 15Z
MENTION CHANCE IFR FOR LBT AND FLO IN CEILINGS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE
WITH FROPA FROM WEST TO EAST STARTING AFTER 18Z INLAND AND AFTER 21Z
NEAR THE COAST. WILL MENTION PROB GROUP ALONG THE COAST TIL ABOUT
10/00Z AS PRECIP LINGERS NEAR THE COAST AND COULD IMPACT THE
TERMINALS. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE WEST AND EVENTUALLY NORTH WITH THE
FROPA DURING THE DAY.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE FOR MORNING FOG MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 9:50 PM THURSDAY...BUOY OBS CONTINUE TO SHOW SEAS IN THE 4
TO 6 FT RANGE A RESULT OF PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND
OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL REMAIN 15 KT OR LESS
IN A RATHER MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE 6 FT SWELL.
OTHERWISE...LIGHT SHOWERS FROM CAPE FEAR TO SURF CITY WILL MOVE
QUICKLY OFF TO THE NE THROUGH MIDNIGHT. NEXT ROUND OF PRECIP WILL
BE OCCURRING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND WILL LIKELY
HOLD OFF UNTIL AT LEAST SUNRISE FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...A RATHER IMPRESSIVE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MODEST
SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BECOME A STRONGER
NORTHEAST WIND FRIDAY NIGHT AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DROPS
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE CAROLINAS. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY EVENING WITH A GRADUAL VEERING AND
DECREASE IN OUR WINDS.
BOTH THE NOAA WAVEWATCH AND OUR LOCAL SWAN WAVE MODELS SHOW THE
SUBSTANTIAL SOUTHEAST SWELL WE HAVE TODAY WILL CONTINUE INTO
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL ONLY A SMALL REDUCTION IN WAVE HEIGHT AND
NO CHANGE IN PERIOD...CURRENTLY OBSERVED AND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
AT 9-10 SECONDS. THIS COULD BRING 6-FOOT SEAS TO THE OUTER
PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS ALMOST THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE PERIOD
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY REGARDLESS OF WHAT THE SYNOPTIC WEATHER IS
DOING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS APPEAR MOST LIKELY FRIDAY
NIGHT WHEN THE STRONGEST PERIOD OF NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO ADD A STEEP CHOP ON TOP OF THE SWELL.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING NORTHEAST FROM THE
CAROLINAS TO BRING AN ONSHORE FLOW ON SUNDAY THAT WILL VEER AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES. SOME RESIDUAL EASTERLY SWELL WILL COMBINE WITH THE
WIND WAVE FOR A POSSIBLE NEED FOR CAUTIONARY HEADLINES TO START THE
PERIOD. THIS WILL WANE AS THE DAY WEARS ON AND THE GRADIENT AND
SWELL BOTH RELAX. THE HIGH WILL MOVE WELL OFFSHORE BY MONDAY
BRINGING A TURN TO THE SOUTH AND A FURTHER SETTLING OF THE SEAS AS
THE SWELL ENERGY CONTINUES TO ABATE. THE RETURN FLOW REGIME WILL
LAST INTO TUESDAY WITH PERHAPS A VEER FROM S TO SW.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
AMZ250-252-254-256.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...CRM/MJC
SHORT TERM...TRA
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MAC/MJC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
825 PM CST SAT MAR 10 2012
.DISCUSSION...
QUESTION OVERNIGHT IS FOG POTENTIAL. POTENTIAL IS THERE...SO WILL
LEAVE AREAS OF FOG MENTION FROM PREV FCST ISSUANCE. WONDER IF THE
MOISTURE IS QUITE SHALLOW HOWEVER NEAR THE SURFACE WITH DRY
AIRMASS JUST ABOVE AND THIS MAY PREVENT WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT OF
FOG. UPS STUDY WOULD INDICATE POTENTIAL AS EXPECT LOW TEMPS TO
DROP SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW THE AFTERNOON DEW POINT IN MUCH OF
EASTERN ND AND THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER ARE LIGHT. TEMPS FALLING PRETTY QUICKLY IN MOST AREAS...AND
ADJUSTED CURVE A BIT. STILL EXPECT MOST AREAS TO FALL INTO THE 25
TO 30 DEGREE RANGE OVERNIGHT...LANGDON MAY BE A BIT COLDER.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 PM CST SAT MAR 10 2012/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPERATURES AND FOG POTENTIAL.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...BUT ALL HAVE PERFORMED POORLY WITH
TEMPERATURES. WILL USE A BLENDED SOLUTION WITH NO REAL MODEL
PREFERENCE FOR TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE...NOTING THAT EVEN THE RUC IS
STRUGGLING.
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES TODAY HAVE RESULTED IN SIGNIFICANT SNOW
MELT AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DEW POINTS IN THE
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. HIGH MOISTURE...COMBINED WITH CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WIND OVERNIGHT WILL RESULT IN FOG DEVELOPMENT. AREAL
COVERAGE AND TIMING UNCERTAINTIES EXIST...BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE AREAS OF DENSE FOG WITH VISIBILITY BELOW 1 SM.
FOR NOW...ADDED AREAS OF FOG FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FROM 03
UTC TONIGHT UNTIL 15 UTC TOMORROW MORNING. EVENING SHIFT WILL NEED
TO MONITOR OBSERVATIONS FOR POSSIBLE ADVISORY CONDITIONS.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT NOT EXPECTED TO COOL MUCH BELOW CURRENT DEW
POINT VALUES...SO WILL GO WITH LOWS FROM THE UPPER 20S TO THE
LOWER 30S.
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL BE TRICKY WITH SEVERAL COMPETING FACTORS.
EARLY MORNING FOG COULD DELAY TEMPERATURE RISE...BUT INCREASING
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WIND AND MARCH SUN ANGLE SHOULD HELP LIFT/BURN OFF
FOG RATHER RAPIDLY. THE REST OF THE DAY WILL SEE SOME INCREASING
CIRRUS...BUT REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY. SURFACE INVERSION SHOULD NOT BE
NEARLY AS STRONG AS TODAY WITH BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AROUND 20 KTS
AND TEMPERATURES ALOFT FROM +10 TO +12 C. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
CLOSE TO THOSE OBSERVED TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S. HIGHER TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE...BUT WILL BE CAUTIOUS/
CONSERVATIVE WITH DEGREE OF WARMING AT THIS TIME GIVEN SOUTHERLY
WIND DIRECTION AND POSSIBLE FOG IMPACTS.
AZ/NM CUT-OFF LOW EJECTS NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE MN ARROWHEAD
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION.
TEMPERATURES ARE WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN AND FAVORED AREA IS
STILL ALONG AND EAST OF THE VALLEY GIVEN WARM AIR ADVECTION/
ISENTROPIC LIFT...FOLLOWED BY WRAP AROUND MOISTURE. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS THROUGH MONDAY UP TO 0.3 INCH ARE POSSIBLE. WILL HAVE TO
WATCH FOR POTENTIAL IMPACTS ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS GIVEN
CONCURRENT SNOW MELT. HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL STILL BE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL FROM THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S...BUT SLIGHTLY COOLER
ACROSS MN WHERE CLOUDS AND RAIN SHOULD LIMIT RISE.
A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT ONLY IMPACTS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER
LOWS TUESDAY MORNING FROM THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S AND BREEZY
NORTHWEST WIND. COOLER AIR IS QUICKLY REPLACED BY THERMAL RIDGE ALOFT
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...ALLOWING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB BACK INTO
THE 50S AND LOWER 60S.
LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING INTO MANITOBA TUESDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT DOWN INTO THE CWA LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
BEHIND IT. EVEN WITH THE COLD FRONT TEMPS WILL STILL BE WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF
THE PERIOD...WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AT THE SFC AS LOW
PRESSURE SETS UP TO OUR NORTHWEST. 850MB TEMPS GET WELL INTO THE
TEENS C...AND WITH WARM TEMPS FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK BEFORE...THERE
WILL NOT BE MUCH SNOW LEFT TO KEEP TEMPS DOWN. WILL CONTINUE TO
KEEP HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS MILD IN THE UPPER 30S INTO THE 40S. WITH TEMPS
STAYING ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK...SNOW MELT AND RUN OFF WILL PICK UP
SPEED AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH RIVER LEVELS CLOSELY.
BY SATURDAY...THERE START TO BE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE OVERALL
PATTERN WITH THE GFS EJECTING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES INTO SOUTHERN CANADA WHILE THE ECMWF IS MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED
AND SHOWS NO SHORTWAVE. THE GFS HAS PLENTY OF MOISTURE STREAMING UP
FROM THE GULF AND A FEW OF THE NAEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE PRECIP
FOR SATURDAY...SO KEPT THE LOW POPS THAT ALLBLEND GAVE US.
SHOWALTERS ARE NEGATIVE...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY THUNDER MENTION
FOR NOW AND JUST INCLUDE RAIN SHOWERS.
AVIATION...
WITH WARM TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON MELTING SNOW...DEWPOINTS HAVE
RISEN INTO THE LOWER 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. WITH LIGHT
WINDS...INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE MELTED SNOW...AND
CLEAR SKIES...CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO LOOK FAVORABLE FOR FOG
FORMATION. VIS AND CEILINGS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH 04-06Z OR
SO...THEN GO DOWN TO IFR OR LOWER LATE TONIGHT. SOME OF THE FOG
COULD BE DENSE WITH VIS UNDER A MILE. FOG WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE
SOMETIME AROUND THE 15-17Z TIME FRAME.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
RIDDLE/ROGERS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
652 AM CST FRI MAR 9 2012
.SHORT TERM...
WARM FRONT OVER SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA QUITE EVIDENT ON SURFACE
CHARTS WITH SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH WINDS FROM HETTINGER TO DICKINSON
AND WILLISTON AND TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 20S. SOUTHWEST OF THAT
LINE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID 30S FROM GLENDIVE...BEACH...
BAKER AND BUFFALO SD WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS. THE FRONT IS EDGING
EAST AND WHERE IT ENDS THE DAY WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER STORY OF
THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES HAVE VERY LARGE RANGE
FROM MID 20S FAR EASTERN DAKOTAS TO MID 60S OVER THE WEST. FRONT
MOVED THROUGH KBHK AROUND 8Z AND THROUGH BEACH AROUND 11Z...FAIRLY
SLOW MOVEMENT. THIS MAY ACCELERATE SOME THROUGH THE MORNING AS
SOLAR HEATING AIDES IN MIXING.
.AVIATION...
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH BAND OF MID CLOUD EXTENDED
FROM CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA NORTH THROUGH EASTERN SASKATCHEWAN.
MODELS HINT AT SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DEVELOPING IN SOUTHEAST
SURFACE FLOW BUT NO REFLECTION OF THAT AS OF NOW. HRRR HAS NARROW
BAND OF LIFR FORECAST BETWEEN BISMARCK AND DICKINSON BUT 12Z
OBSERVATIONS AND TAFS DO NOT REFLECT THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FORECAST.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HW
AVIATION...HW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
307 AM CST FRI MAR 9 2012
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
IN THE NEAR TERM...THE NAM/GFS AND TO SOME EXTENT THE HRRR SHOW
SOME LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS MORNING...PER 925MB
RELATIVE HUMIDITY FIELDS. HOWEVER...THE FOG/STRATUS LOOP CONTINUES
TO DOWNPLAY ANY DEVELOPMENT...THUS WILL SKEW THE EARLY MORNING
FORECAST TO MAINLY CLEAR EXCEPT IN THE NORTHEAST WHERE A BAND OF
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM THROUGH.
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS 3MB/3HR PRESSURE FALLS MAXIMIZED
OVER EASTERN ALBERTA AND WESTERN SASKATCHEWAN...AND INTO EASTERN
MONTANA. THIS IS COINCIDING/INDICATIVE OF RISING MOTION ALONG AND
AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA. THE WARM FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY MORNING...PUTTING
THEM IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR THE AFTERNOON. THE WARM FRONT LOOKS TO
MAKE ITS WAY INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES LOOK TRICKY ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY. THE
NAM/GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW A SHALLOW MIXED LAYER ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT WHICH INCLUDES KMOT/KBIS/KJMS...WITH A
DEEPER MIXED LAYER BEHIND THE FRONT FOR KISN/KDIK. HAVE USED THE
ALLBLEND TO ADJUST TEMPERATURES...WARMEST IN THE WEST BEHIND THE
FRONT AND COOLER READINGS HEADING EAST...ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
WARM FRONT. EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH DEVELOPING
BEHIND THE WARM FRONT IN THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON.
FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WARM TEMPERATURES DOMINATING.
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EXTENDED PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST TONIGHT AND USED A BLEND OF MODELS FOR THE GRIDS.
STRONG RIDGING IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN
PLAINS DURING THE BEGINNING OF EXTENDED SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
THE RIDGE SLOWLY FLATTENS AS SPLIT FLOW OFF SHORE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
GUIDES WEAK SHORTWAVES UP AND OVER THE RIDGE. CUT OFF LOW IN THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST MOVES SLOWLY EAST IN SOUTHERN FLOW.
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW BEGINS TO EJECT BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND FLOW BECOMES
SOUTHWEST OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND WESTERN DAKOTAS. HOWEVER THE
SURFACE LOW WHICH DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO MID LEVEL ENERGY MOVES
WELL NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER AND THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY AND
MILD THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
A SECOND SHORTWAVE MOVES NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE
PROVINCES ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH PERHAPS SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE WAVE...BUT AGAIN MAIN ENERGY
AND SURFACE LOW IS WELL NORTH OF THE BORDER. RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AGAIN BY END OF THE WORK WEEK.
MAINLY DRY FORECAST WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
&&
.AVIATION...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH BAND OF MID CLOUD EXTENDED
FROM CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA NORTH THROUGH EASTERN SASKATCHEWAN.
MODELS HINT AT SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DEVELOPING IN SOUTHEAST
SURFACE FLOW BUT NO REFLECTION OF THAT AS OF NOW. HRRR HAS NARROW
BAND OF LIFR BETWEEN BISMARCK AND DICKINSON BUT 12Z TAFS WILL NOT
REFLECT THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FORECAST UNLESS SOMETHING
MATERIALIZES BEFORE ISSUE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER INDICES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHWEST TODAY. HOWEVER FIRE MANAGEMENT OFFICERS REPORT THAT THE
GRASSLANDS AND GROUND ARE TOO MOIST TO SUPPORT RED FLAG CRITERIA
AT THIS TIME...POSSIBLY IN ANOTHER WEEK THESE CONDITIONS MIGHT
CHANGE. THUS WILL HIGHLIGHT THE VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER INDICES IN
THE HWO.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/FIRE WEATHER...KS
LONG TERM....HW
AVIATION...HW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
850 PM CST SAT MAR 10 2012
.DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 850 PM CST/
ALLOWED RED FLAG WARNING TO EXPIRE AS PLANNED WITH WINDS DIMINISHING
AND RH VALUES CLIMBING AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES COOLED. OTHER THAN
FRESHENING UP THE GRIDS...FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK WITH MINOR
UPDATES OUT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 300 PM CST/
ADDED LAST FIRE WEATHER ZONE TO RED FLAG WARNING PRIOR TO 19Z...AS
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THAT ZONE WERE ALSO FALLING TO BELOW 25 PERCENT RH
AND WINDS THERE GUSTING TO NEAR 25 MPH OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER. NORTHERN
PARTS OF THAT ZONE NOT LIKELY TO HIT RED FLAG CRITERIA...BUT LATEST
OBS ARE SHOWING RH VALUES AT KHON FLIRTING WITH 25 PERCENT AS OF 20Z
AS WELL. DEW POINTS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY CLIMBING ACROSS OUR SD COUNTIES
AS THE HRRR ALLUDED TO ON ITS EARLIER RUNS...WHICH LENDS CONFIDENCE
TO USING THIS FOR SOME GUIDANCE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. INCREASED
DEW POINTS NOT ENOUGH TO RAISE RELATIVE HUMIDITY SIGNIFICANTLY IN
OUR SOUTHWEST THOUGH...AS TEMPS WARMING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S
ARE KEEPING RH VALUES AT OR BELOW 20 PERCENT. SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA
NOT YET DOWN TO 25 PERCENT BUT GETTING VERY CLOSE AS OF 20Z AND
STRONGEST WINDS STILL SEEN IN THAT AREA WITH GUSTS TO 35+MPH MUCH OF
THE AFTERNOON. SO ALL IN ALL LOOKS LIKE A GOOD RED FLAG WARNING
THROUGHOUT THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
AS FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT DEW POINTS TO JUMP A BIT AND WIND GUSTS TO
DROP OFF WITH SUNSET...SO EXPIRATION OF RED FLAG WARNING AT 6PM
LOOKS OK. SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD STAY FAIRLY STEADY IN 10-15MPH MOST
AREAS TONIGHT. SLIGHTLY HIGHER SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...BUT NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS STRONG AS LAST NIGHT AS LOW
LEVEL JET NOT AS STRONG ACROSS THIS AREA. THE MODEST WINDS AND SOME
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH MORE SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FETCH
WILL HOLD TEMPS UP A BIT FROM LAST NIGHT...AND HAVE BUMPED LOWS UP A
FEW DEGREES INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S.
APPROACH OF UPPER LOW SUNDAY WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. STILL THE INITIAL INTRUSION OF SHOWERS ALOFT WILL
HAVE TROUBLE GETTING TO THE SURFACE AND WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE
PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE MORNING. OTHERWISE EXPECT THE UPPER LOW AND
ITS HALF DECENT DYNAMICS TO COMBINE WITH THE INCREASING MOISTURE
AND MEAGER THERMAL SUPPORT TO PRODUCE A HIGH PROBABILITY/ LOW QPF
EVENT OF RAIN FOR OUR EASTERN FORECAST AREA...THOUGH NOT SO LOW THAT
A TENTH OF AN INCH OR TWO COULD NOT BE SPIT OUT. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
MAY GET INTO THE WEST ALSO. TIMING IS MAINLY SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH
SYSTEM MOVING OUT STEADILY MONDAY AND DRY OVER THE AREA BY NOON. MID
AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MOST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WHICH GOES INTO THE COMING WEEKEND. STEADILY
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PUMP UP LOW TEMPERATURES WHILE
DAYTIME HIGHS ARE IN THE 60S AND 70S. BASICALLY MID TO LATE APRIL
WEATHER. AS MAJOR TROUGH DIGS OVER THE WEST COAST THERE COULD BE A
WEAK WAVE OR TWO COME UP AHEAD OF TROUGH IN SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER
FLOW. ACCORDINGLY HAVE MENTIONED A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR
SATURDAY. THIS IS AHEAD OF MAIN SYSTEM AND THE DRY WARM SPELL COULD
GO THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER THE AIR WILL BE GETTING MORE
UNSTABLE IN ADDITION TO THE MOISTURE INCREASE...SO THE GUIDANCE
INDICATION OF PRECIPITATION THREAT WILL BE FOLLOWED FOR NOW. THREAT
OF SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM AND SEVERE WEATHER EVENT CONTINUES TO BE
BEYOND FORECAST PERIOD AS 00Z GFS RUN WAS NOT ACCEPTED HERE.
/WILLIAMS
&&
.AVIATION.../FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE/
TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. HOWEVER THERE ARE SOME NON
CONVECTIVE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONCERNS IN OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES...
WHICH INCLUDES THE HURON TAF. ALTHOUGH THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL REMAIN
STRONG EVERYWHERE IN OUR FORECAST AREA...OUR NORTHWEST ZONES WILL
SEE THE MOST DECOUPLING AT THE SURFACE CREATING FAIRLY LIGHT
WINDS...AND THUS THE MOST LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR. OTHERWISE ON
SUNDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE NORTHWARD. MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY ENCROACH IN OUR NORTHWEST IOWA ZONES AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES ON SUNDAY...WITH RAIN CHANCES IN THE MID AND LATE
AFTERNOON THROUGHOUT THAT SAME AREA.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
MN...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SD...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
559 PM CST SAT MAR 10 2012
.DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 300 PM CST/
ADDED LAST FIRE WEATHER ZONE TO RED FLAG WARNING PRIOR TO 19Z...AS
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THAT ZONE WERE ALSO FALLING TO BELOW 25 PERCENT RH
AND WINDS THERE GUSTING TO NEAR 25 MPH OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER. NORTHERN
PARTS OF THAT ZONE NOT LIKELY TO HIT RED FLAG CRITERIA...BUT LATEST
OBS ARE SHOWING RH VALUES AT KHON FLIRTING WITH 25 PERCENT AS OF 20Z
AS WELL. DEW POINTS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY CLIMBING ACROSS OUR SD COUNTIES
AS THE HRRR ALLUDED TO ON ITS EARLIER RUNS...WHICH LENDS CONFIDENCE
TO USING THIS FOR SOME GUIDANCE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. INCREASED
DEW POINTS NOT ENOUGH TO RAISE RELATIVE HUMIDITY SIGNIFICANTLY IN
OUR SOUTHWEST THOUGH...AS TEMPS WARMING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S
ARE KEEPING RH VALUES AT OR BELOW 20 PERCENT. SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA
NOT YET DOWN TO 25 PERCENT BUT GETTING VERY CLOSE AS OF 20Z AND
STRONGEST WINDS STILL SEEN IN THAT AREA WITH GUSTS TO 35+MPH MUCH OF
THE AFTERNOON. SO ALL IN ALL LOOKS LIKE A GOOD RED FLAG WARNING
THROUGHOUT THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
AS FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT DEW POINTS TO JUMP A BIT AND WIND GUSTS TO
DROP OFF WITH SUNSET...SO EXPIRATION OF RED FLAG WARNING AT 6PM
LOOKS OK. SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD STAY FAIRLY STEADY IN 10-15MPH MOST
AREAS TONIGHT. SLIGHTLY HIGHER SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...BUT NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS STRONG AS LAST NIGHT AS LOW
LEVEL JET NOT AS STRONG ACROSS THIS AREA. THE MODEST WINDS AND SOME
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH MORE SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FETCH
WILL HOLD TEMPS UP A BIT FROM LAST NIGHT...AND HAVE BUMPED LOWS UP A
FEW DEGREES INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S.
APPROACH OF UPPER LOW SUNDAY WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. STILL THE INITIAL INTRUSION OF SHOWERS ALOFT WILL
HAVE TROUBLE GETTING TO THE SURFACE AND WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE
PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE MORNING. OTHERWISE EXPECT THE UPPER LOW AND
ITS HALF DECENT DYNAMICS TO COMBINE WITH THE INCREASING MOISTURE
AND MEAGER THERMAL SUPPORT TO PRODUCE A HIGH PROBABILITY/ LOW QPF
EVENT OF RAIN FOR OUR EASTERN FORECAST AREA...THOUGH NOT SO LOW THAT
A TENTH OF AN INCH OR TWO COULD NOT BE SPIT OUT. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
MAY GET INTO THE WEST ALSO. TIMING IS MAINLY SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH
SYSTEM MOVING OUT STEADILY MONDAY AND DRY OVER THE AREA BY NOON. MID
AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MOST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WHICH GOES INTO THE COMING WEEKEND. STEADILY
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PUMP UP LOW TEMPERATURES WHILE
DAYTIME HIGHS ARE IN THE 60S AND 70S. BASICALLY MID TO LATE APRIL
WEATHER. AS MAJOR TROUGH DIGS OVER THE WEST COAST THERE COULD BE A
WEAK WAVE OR TWO COME UP AHEAD OF TROUGH IN SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER
FLOW. ACCORDINGLY HAVE MENTIONED A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR
SATURDAY. THIS IS AHEAD OF MAIN SYSTEM AND THE DRY WARM SPELL COULD
GO THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER THE AIR WILL BE GETTING MORE
UNSTABLE IN ADDITION TO THE MOISTURE INCREASE...SO THE GUIDANCE
INDICATION OF PRECIPITATION THREAT WILL BE FOLLOWED FOR NOW. THREAT
OF SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM AND SEVERE WEATHER EVENT CONTINUES TO BE
BEYOND FORECAST PERIOD AS 00Z GFS RUN WAS NOT ACCEPTED HERE.
/WILLIAMS
&&
.AVIATION.../FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE/
TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. HOWEVER THERE ARE SOME NON
CONVECTIVE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONCERNS IN OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES...
WHICH INCLUDES THE HURON TAF. ALTHOUGH THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL REMAIN
STRONG EVERYWHERE IN OUR FORECAST AREA...OUR NORTHWEST ZONES WILL
SEE THE MOST DECOUPLING AT THE SURFACE CREATING FAIRLY LIGHT
WINDS...AND THUS THE MOST LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR. OTHERWISE ON
SUNDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE NORTHWARD. MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY ENCROACH IN OUR NORTHWEST IOWA ZONES AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES ON SUNDAY...WITH RAIN CHANCES IN THE MID AND LATE
AFTERNOON THROUGHOUT THAT SAME AREA.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
MN...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SD...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ABERDEEN SD
1132 PM CST THU MAR 8 2012
.UPDATE...
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF ND THIS
AFTERNOON. COMBINED WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE DAKOTAS TONIGHT AND SNOW COVER ON THE
GROUND...TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS IN
THE EAST. WHERE GROUND IS BARE...EXPECT LOWS TO DROP INTO THE
UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH BETWEEN 0Z AND 03Z AFTER THE FROPA. UNTIL THEN
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE BETWEEN 21Z AND 0Z. MOST AREAS WILL STAY
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA..THOUGH THE 17Z RUC INDICATES THAT CORSON
COUNTY AND LOCAL AREAS IN THE FAR NORTHEAST CORNER MAY BRIEFLY SEE
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 MPH. DECIDED THE IMPACT WAS NOT SUFFICIENT
ENOUGH TO MERIT AN ADVISORY. AT THIS POINT SNOW PACK IS WET AND
HEAVY ENOUGH TO LIMIT ANY BLOWING SNOW.
WITH DRY WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND CONTINUING THROUGH
SATURDAY...WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
IN SNOW FREE AREAS ACROSS CENTRAL SD. EXPECT SURFACE TEMPS TO CLIMB
INTO THE LOWER 50S IN THE EAST TO LOWER 70S IN SOUTHCENTRAL SD BY
SATURDAY AS H85 TEMPS RISE TO NEAR +13.
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
AS THE PERIOD OPENS...THERE IS A LONGWAVE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
POSITIONED OVER THE WESTERN CONUS /ESPECIALLY THE PAC NW/ AND A
CUT-OFF LOW SPINNING/MEANDERING OVER THE DESERT SW. BY
MONDAY...THIS CUT-OFF LOW IS FINALLY EJECTING OUT OF THE SWRN
CONUS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. TEMP-WISE...CURRENT
SOLUTIONS SUGGEST IT WILL BE WARM ENOUGH THAT ANY PRECIPITATION
COMING INTO THE FAR EASTERN CWA SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS LOW WOULD BE RAIN. THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG
TERM SEES THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST REPOSITION TO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES/EASTERN CONUS...WHILE A BROAD LONGWAVE TROF
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WEST COAST WITH VARIOUS TRANSIENT S/WS PROGGED
TO WORK INLAND ACROSS WASHINGTON..IDAHO AND MONTANA BEFORE BEING
REDIRECTED NORTH AND EAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHERN MN AND SC
CANADA. LARGELY...THIS CWA IS NOT EXPECTED TO RECEIVE MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION BETWEEN MONDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. OTHER THAN A COLD
FRONT PROGGED TO PASS THROUGH WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT BRINGING A
TEMPORARY COOL DOWN...THERE SEEMS TO BE NO END IN SIGHT TO
MILD...UNSEASONABLY WARM /MUCH ABOVE NORMAL/ AIR OVER THE CWA NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. LIGHT NELY WINDS
LATE THIS EVENING WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO SOUTHERLY BY SUNRISE
FRIDAY. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS ARE
EXPECTED BY MID TO LATE MORNING AT ALL TERMINALS.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CHURCH
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...CHURCH
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
551 PM CST SAT MAR 10 2012
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
252 PM CST SAT MAR 10 2012
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON THE EXPECTED PRECIPITATION SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT.
CURRENTLY AS OF 20Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED THE MAIN BELT OF THE WESTERLIES TRAVERSING FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA...THEN DOWN INTO TROUGHING OVER
NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER...IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM...AN UPPER LOW WAS
PRESENT OVER NEW MEXICO WITH RIDGING BUILDING UP AHEAD OF IT OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. MOISTURE SO FAR AHEAD OF THIS UPPER LOW
HAS ADVECTED INTO OKLAHOMA...NOTED BY SHOWERS...LOWER LEVEL STRATUS
AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. A MUCH DIFFERENT SITUATION
EXISTS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO OUR REGION...THOUGH. 12Z
SOUNDINGS FROM BIS...ABR...OAX AND MPX ALL DEPICTED A VERY DRY
ATMOSPHERE. 850MB TEMPS HAVE WARMED FAIRLY DRAMATICALLY SINCE LAST
NIGHT TOO...WITH MPX JUMPING FROM -1C AT 00Z TO 13C AT 12Z. PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE...BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS FROM 30 TO 45 MPH
AND THE DRY AIR HAS ALLOWED FOR TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 60S
OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. EXCEPTION TO THIS IS OVER THE
SNOWPACK IN TAYLOR COUNTY WHERE READINGS ARE STILL IN THE MID 50S.
DEWPOINTS HAVE STRUGGLED TO FALL MUCH SO FAR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...
THOUGH. THINKING THIS IS DUE TO MOISTURE STILL IN THE SOIL
EVAPOTRANSPIRATING. CONDITIONS ARE STILL CONDUCIVE FOR FIRES...
THOUGH...NOTED BY A FIRE THAT OCCURRED NEAR MANKATO MN SEEN ON MPX
RADAR.
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC IS PROGGED
TO SLIDE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...CAUSING THE UPPER LOW IN NEW
MEXICO TO LIFT UP INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE SPEED OF THIS UPPER
LOW EJECTION HAS REMAINED NEARLY CONSISTENT FOR THE PAST FEW
DAYS...THOUGH THE SPEED AT WHICH MOISTURE/PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE
UPPER LOW HAS SLOWED DOWN. IN FACT...THE 10.12Z ECMWF...GFS...NAM...
CANADIAN AND UKMET ARE ALL NOW DRY FOR SUNDAY. GIVEN THE CURRENT DRY
AIRMASS...THINK THE DRIER TREND IS THE WAY TO GO AND REMOVED ANY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR SUNDAY. WE SHOULD SEE SOME MID/HIGH CLOUD
COVER ADVECT IN FROM THE SOUTH DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...THOUGH. A
WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT IS PROGGED TONIGHT THAN WHAT OCCURRED THIS
MORNING...BUT A 5 TO 15 MPH SOUTHWEST WIND LOOKS TO PERSIST. THE
WIND WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES UP SOMEWHAT...THOUGH THE DRY
AIRMASS DOES LEND ITSELF FOR BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING.
THEREFORE...HAVE KEPT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST LOWS ABOUT THE SAME.
HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE TRICKY BECAUSE OF THE INCOMING CLOUDS. CERTAINLY
THE DRY AIR AND A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND ARE HELPFUL TO HAVE
ANOTHER WARM DAY...IN ADDITION TO 850MB TEMPS HOLDING BETWEEN 8-10C.
DECIDED TO LEAN TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE MET/ECMWF/REGIONAL CANADIAN
GUIDANCE GIVEN GOOD PERFORMANCE IN THESE ABOVE NORMAL SCENARIOS.
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
EJECTING NORTHEASTWARD...CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY MORNING.
BY 00Z TUESDAY...THE UPPER LOW SHOULD BE LOCATED OVER EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR. IMPRESSIVE CHANGE IN 500MB HEIGHTS FOR THE FORECAST AREA.
FROM 00-12Z MONDAY...THESE HEIGHTS FALL AROUND 150 METERS. SO
DEFINITELY GOOD FORCING IN THIS TIME PERIOD FOR PRECIPITATION. ON
THE FLIP SIDE...BETWEEN 12Z MONDAY-00Z TUESDAY...THE HEIGHTS RISE
40-100 METERS...INDICATING DECENT SUBSIDENCE. WHEN LOOKING AT MODEL
QPF OUTPUT THE SAME SIGNAL SHOWS UP...WHERE SHOWERS SPREAD SOUTH TO
NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN END SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST MONDAY. VERY
GOOD AGREEMENT EXISTS AMONGST THE MODELS FOR PRECIPITATION...SO HAVE
RAISED PRECIPITATION CHANCES UP TO 100 WITH A LITTLE EXTRA TIMING
INFORMATION INCLUDED. AS FAR AS QPF AMOUNTS GO...PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES CLIMB TO 250-300 PERCENT OF NORMAL...THOUGH MUCH OF THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT ENDS UP SHUNTED OFF TO THE EAST. VERY
LITTLE IF ANY CAPE IS PROGGED DUE TO MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES. NO
HINTS AT ANY UPPER JET FORCING EITHER. THEREFORE...THINK QPF AMOUNTS
OVERALL WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT...ON THE ORDER OF 0.25-0.5 INCHES. WITH
THE MOISTURE COMING UP...EXPECT LOWS TO STAY ON THE MILD SIDE SUNDAY
NIGHT. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL TEND TO
KEEP THINGS COOLER ON MONDAY...RELATIVELY SPEAKING FOR MID MARCH
GIVEN THAT HIGHS ARE STILL GOING TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...500MB HEIGHTS ARE PROGGED TO RISE
FURTHER...DUE TO THE UPPER LOW MOVING FARTHER AWAY...AND YET ANOTHER
UPPER TROUGH FORECAST TO DIG INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AS
SUCH...WE GET A SURGE OF WARMER AIR AT 850MB TEMPS TO ADVECT INTO
THE FORECAST AREA...CLIMBING FROM 6-10C AT 12Z TUESDAY TO 10-12C AT
00Z WEDNESDAY. OTHER THAN A LITTLE LINGERING STRATUS EARLY MONDAY
NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LOW...AS WELL AS A FEW MID CLOUDS TO
PASS THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY...MUCH OF THIS TIME PERIOD LOOKS TO
BE CLEAR. IN FACT...SOUNDINGS ON TUESDAY LOOK PRETTY DRY WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW US TO WARM NICELY. SO AFTER A NIGHT IN THE MID 30S TO
LOW 40S MONDAY NIGHT...ANTICIPATING TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND BACK
WELL INTO THE 60S. IN FACT...SOME LOCATIONS COULD REACH 70...
ESPECIALLY IN FAR WESTERN SECTIONS.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
252 PM CST SAT MAR 10 2012
AS STATED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS AND STILL HOLDS TRUE...THE MAIN
STORY IS THE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH. PRETTY MUCH THE ENTIRE LONG
TERM PERIOD...ACCORDING TO ALL 10.00Z/12Z MODELS...FEATURES
SOUTHWEST FLOW FROM SAY NORTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO HUDSON BAY...
ALLOWING FOR RIDGING AND DOWNSLOPED PACIFIC AIR TO DOMINATE THE
EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE U.S.. TOWARDS THE WEEKEND...THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW AMPLIFIES OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AS DEEP TROUGHING FORMS ALONG
THE WEST COAST. IF ANYTHING...THIS COULD SEND EVEN WARMER AIR
TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA. 850MB TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM
PERIOD ARE PROGGED AT 2 TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. AS
SUCH...WE COULD BE DEALING WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE RECORD
HIGHS EVERY DAY. IN GENERAL 850MB TEMPS HOLD BETWEEN 10-14C...WITH
THE WARMEST OF THESE ON WEDNESDAY. WITH WHAT LOOKS TO BE PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE THROUGHOUT...STAYED TOWARDS THE HIGH END OF ALL AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE AND FORECASTED HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. THESE
ARE READINGS ARE MORE SIMILAR OF MID MAY THAN MID MARCH.
REGARDING PRECIPITATION CHANCES...THESE ARE RESTRICTED TO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THEN FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A
DYING COLD FRONT PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA. NOT SURE IF THIS FRONT WILL CONVECT...BUT THE 10.12Z
ECMWF DOES SHOW A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT. THIS
SHORTWAVE COMBINED WITH A STREAM OF 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
INSTABILITY COULD RESULT IN SOME CONVECTION. MAINTAINED JUST A 20
PERCENT CHANCE IN FAR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. FOR FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...A STREAM OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY COMING UP OUT OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO MAY COMBINE WITH SOME SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO INITIATE CONVECTION. HARD TO TIME AND EXACT
DETAILS VERY UNCERTAIN...THUS CHANCES ARE KEPT AT A MODEL CONSENSUS
20-40 VALUE.
IF THE CFS MODEL IS RIGHT...WHICH IT HAS BEEN DOING FAIRLY WELL THE
PAST FEW MONTHS...THE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH LOOKS TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF APRIL.
CERTAINLY IN THE LATEST 10.12Z ECMWF...THE WARM AIR AT LEAST STICKS
AROUND THROUGH NEXT MONDAY AND LIKELY WELL BEYOND.
&&
.AVIATION...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
550 PM CST SAT MAR 10 2012
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING AT BOTH TAF
SITES...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT
WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.
A 500MB CLOSED LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL EJECT NORTHWARD ON
SUNDAY. ANY RAIN LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 00Z...BUT CLOUDS WILL
THICKEN THROUGH TE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH CEILINGS POSSIBLY
LOWERING TO 4K=6K FEET BY 00Z.
&&
.CLIMATE...THROUGH SATURDAY
252 PM CST SAT MAR 10 2012
WE ARE APPROACHING RECORD HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON. WITH A FEW MORE
HOURS TO GO...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR EITHER TYING OR BREAKING.
STATIONS THAT HAVE LONG PERIODS OF RECORD...OVER 115 YEARS...1894
RECORDS EXIST FOR DECORAH /66F/...LA CROSSE /67F/...MEDFORD
/53F/...AND WINONA /64F/. MEANWHILE THOSE WITH SHORTER DATA
BASES...THE TEMPERATURES WILL THREATEN RECORDS EITHER SET IN 1967
OR 1977.
LOOKING AHEAD...A STRING OF NEAR RECORDS OR RECORD HIGHS APPEAR
LIKELY FOR TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AND COULD EVEN GO BEYOND
THIS. IN ADDITION...WE COULD ALSO APPROACH OR BREAK RECORD HIGH
MINIMUMS. AN ABNORMALLY STRONG RIDGE AND WARM AIR IS PROGGED TO
REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
READINGS LOOK TO BE MORE SIMILAR OF MID MAY VERSUS MID MARCH. STAY
TUNED TO SEE HOW WARM WE ACTUALLY GET. RECORDS HAVE BEEN POSTED ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...THROUGH MONDAY
252 PM CST SAT MAR 10 2012
SIMILAR TO THE EARLIER HYDROLOGY DISCUSSION...SOME MINOR CONCERNS
ABOUT WHETHER ANY FLOODING WILL OCCUR ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN
AS A RESULT OF A MELTING SNOW PACK AND RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. QPF AMOUNTS ARE STILL FORECAST BETWEEN 0.25-0.5 INCHES OVER
A LONG PERIOD WITH NO THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO OCCUR. WITH GRADUAL
MELTING DUE TO THE WARMER TEMPERATURES...CURRENTLY EXPECT TO SEE
SOME RIVER RISES ALONG THE BLACK AND MAYBE TREMPEALEAU RIVERS...BUT
PROBABLY NOT UP TO FLOOD STAGE AT THIS POINT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...THROUGH SUNDAY
550 PM CST SAT MAR 10 2012
WILL ALLOW RED FLAG WARNING TO EXPIRE AT 6 PM.
LOOKING AHEAD TO SUNDAY...MORE MOISTURE STREAMING FROM THE SOUTH AND
INCREASING CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON SHOULD KEEP THE RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES FROM DROPPING BELOW 30 PERCENT. LOWEST HUMIDITIES ARE
PLANNED OVER SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN...WHICH IN THIS AREA THE FUELS ARE
A LITTLE MORE MOIST. WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO BE QUITE A BIT
LIGHTER THAN THOSE SEEN TODAY. THEREFORE...CONDITIONS FOR FIRES WILL
NOT BE AS GOOD AS THEY WERE TODAY.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
550 PM CST SAT MAR 10 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...RABERDING
CLIMATE...BOYNE/AJ
HYDROLOGY...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
331 AM EDT SUN MAR 11 2012
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO DOMINATE
THE AREA TODAY WITH RIDGING BUILDING IN ALOFT AND GENERAL EASTERLY
FLOW AT THE SURFACE. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS ONLY SLIGHTLY WARMER TODAY
THAN YESTERDAY. CUTOFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE NORTHEAST AS CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION SPREAD OVER THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AS SURFACE FLOW SHIFTS TO MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY LATER TODAY IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING FRONT...
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WILL BE ADVECTED INTO THE REGION. THE NAM IS A
LITTLE STRONGER THAN MODEL CONSENSUS WITH THE SURFACE SYSTEM
APPROACHING THE AREA...WITH STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. IT THUS HAS A FASTER PACE OF RETURN MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT. HAVE GENERALLY SIDED WITH THE GFS/ECMWF...BUT IN-HOUSE 4KM
WRF AND HRRR HINT THAT THE NAM MAY BE ONTO SOMETHING AND THAT
ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO THE ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE TODAY. HAVE CONTINUED TREND OF SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS
BEGINNING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST...ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE HIGH.
LOW TEMPS TONIGHT /AS IN SUNDAY NIGHT/ WILL BE MARKEDLY HIGHER
THAN LOW TEMPS AT AFD TIME /SUNDAY MORNING LOWS/ DUE TO THE
MOISTURE INCREASE AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER. HIGH TEMPS MONDAY
SHOULD BEGIN THEIR SLOW BUT STEADY INCREASE THAT WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEK. FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH
AFTERNOON CAPES PROGGED IN THE 200-400 J/KG RANGE MAINLY IN
EXTREME WESTERN ZONES. BEST CAPE REMAINS OVER ALABAMA BUT WITH THE
PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT...CANNOT RULE OUT THUNDER ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON BUT HAVE LIMITED IT TO SLIGHT CHANCE. POPS IN NORTH
GEORGIA REMAIN VERY HIGH BUT EXPECT LOW QPF AMOUNTS.
AS MAIN DYNAMICS LIFT NORTH WITH THE CLOSED LOW...WHICH WILL BE
ABSORBED BY THE LONGWAVE SYSTEM IN CANADA...THE FRONT BEGINS TO
STALL AND DISSIPATE. SOME UNCERTAINTY IN AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AND
LIFT AVAILABLE MONDAY NIGHT SO HAVE LIMITED POPS TO SLIGHT
CHANCE...BUT LATER FORECASTS MAY NEED TO INCREASE POPS ESPECIALLY
NORTH MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
TDP
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT KEEPS THE SURFACE FRONT FROM PROGRESSING
THROUGH THE CWA ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER THE CWA IS LEFT WITH INCREASING
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW. ALTHOUGH THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...THE GFS ESPECIALLY SHOWS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES
ORIGINATING IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM AND MOVING OVER THE RIDGE TO
AFFECT NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA. ECMWF SHOWS THE SHORT WAVES BEING
PUSHED FURTHER TO OUR NORTH. WITH THIS UNCERTAIN PATTERN...LOW POPS
SEEM REASONABLE FOR EACH PERIOD. CAPES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE BETWEEN
500 AND 1000 DURING THE WEEK...SO HAVE LEFT IN A MENTION OF THUNDER
FOR EACH DAY. WITH RIDGING ALOFT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARM
AND SHOULD BE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST AREAS.
41
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
VFR THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z TONIGHT...THOUGH EARLY THIS MORNING
CIRRUS COVERAGE WILL INCREASE WITH LOW VFR CLOUDS BUILDING INTO
THE AREA BETWEEN 15-18Z. WINDS EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY 5-10KT
THROUGH THE PERIOD...GUSTING TO 15-20KT BETWEEN APPROXIMATELY
15-00Z TODAY. AFTER 00Z...CIGS BEGIN TO LOWER WITH MVFR CIGS
MOVING IN WITH -SHRA IN THE METRO AREA JUST BEFORE 06Z. SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW LOW CIGS WILL DROP AFTER 06Z...HAVE
INTRODUCED IFR CONDITIONS AT ATL BUT HAVE KEPT IT AT OVC010.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON WINDS AND VSBY.
MEDIUM ON TIMING OF MVFR CIGS MOVING IN AND LOW ON
DEVELOPMENT/TIMING OF IFR CIGS.
TDP
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 67 48 66 52 / 10 30 40 40
ATLANTA 64 51 66 56 / 10 50 50 40
BLAIRSVILLE 62 46 59 50 / 10 60 60 50
CARTERSVILLE 64 51 66 54 / 10 70 70 50
COLUMBUS 67 55 73 58 / 10 30 30 40
GAINESVILLE 64 50 64 53 / 10 50 50 40
MACON 66 54 74 56 / 10 20 20 30
ROME 67 53 69 54 / 10 70 70 50
PEACHTREE CITY 65 52 69 52 / 10 50 50 40
VIDALIA 68 53 73 55 / 10 10 20 20
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
319 AM CDT SUN MAR 11 2012
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INTO
NORTH DAKOTA. CLOSED LOW ALOFT EJECTING OUT OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO
THIS MORNING IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEAST...ACROSS MINNEAPOLIS
MONDAY. THIS LOW WILL PUSH A SLUG OF H85-H7 MOISTURE INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. MODELS
HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY SHOWING SOME RAIN SHOWER INTO OUR FAR
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THUS HAVE
PAINTED IN A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THIS AREA WITH DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS
ELSEWHERE. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL SLIDE THROUGH WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
TODAY WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL SUPPRESS
TEMPERATURES A COUPLE DEGREES IN THE WEST FROM WHAT OCCURRED
SATURDAY...BUT OVERALL EXPECT ANOTHER WARM DAY AHEAD. BISMARCK
AND JAMESTOWN WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR TODAY AND SHOULD
CLIMB TO NEAR RECORD HIGHS TODAY. THE FOLLOWING TABLE SHOWS
FORECAST HIGHS AND THE RECORD HIGHS FOR MARCH 11:
SITE FORECAST RECORD YEAR
WILLISTON 64 71 1990
MINOT 62 66 1990
DICKINSON 70 71 1990
BISMARCK 67 67 1934
JAMESTOWN 60 62 1934
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BETWEEN 06Z-
12Z MONDAY...AND INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BETWEEN 12Z-18Z. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WILL ENSUE BEHIND THE FRONT.
EXPECTING A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT GUSTY WINDS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EXTENDED
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST TONIGHT AND USED A BLEND OF MODELS FOR THE
GRIDS.
LARGE FLAT RIDGE REMAINS OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS OF NORTH AMERICA
THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIODS. SEVERAL SHORTWAVE
SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH OR OVER THE MEAN RIDGE POSITION...FLATTENING IT
AS IT MOVES SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. BY END OF THE EXTENDED
PERIODS RIDGE IS POSITIONED ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH A BROAD
TROUGH OVER WEST COAST AND ROCKIES.
A CUT OFF LOW IN SOUTHERN STREAM WILL EJECT INTO THE MID WEST AT THE
START OF THE EXTENDED BUT MOST EFFECTS OF THIS ENERGY WILL MISS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
LARGE SCALE SOUTHWEST FLOW EXTENDS FROM WEST COAST TO EASTERN CANADA
WITH SHORTWAVES MOVING PROGRESSIVELY THROUGH THE FLOW. LITTLE TIME
FOR MOISTURE TO BE ADVECTED NORTH AND THE EXTENDED PERIODS REMAIN
MILD AND MAINLY DRY. DAY SEVEN ALL BLEND INTRODUCES SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...SOME MOISTURE BEGINS TO APPEAR IN THE TAFS LATE IN
PERIODS AS CUT OFF LOW OVER SOUTHWEST MOVES TOWARD THE GREAT
LAKES. NAM TIME SECTIONS BEGIN TO INTRODUCE SOME LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE BEGINNING AFTER 00Z MONDAY. HOWEVER NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
FROM GFS AND TIME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FORECAST FROM HRRR DO NOT
SUPPORT THIS AT LEAST IN THE FIRST PORTIONS OF THE PERIOD AND WILL
CONTINUE VFR FORECAST IN TAFS.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM....HW
AVIATION...HW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1243 AM EST SUN MAR 11 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND REMAIN
OFFSHORE THE EASTERN SEABOARD FOR SEVERAL DAYS. A WEAK FRONT WILL
BRUSH THE REGION ON MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
OTHERWISE... THE COMING WEEK WILL BE FAIR AND UNSEASONABLY WARM.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
DESPITE CLEAR SKIES AND LOW DEWPOINTS...TEMPS SLOW TO FALL
TONIGHT DUE TO A DEVELOPING SW BREEZE. HRRR AND RUC GUIDANCE
INDICATE LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPS BTWN 05Z-12Z WITH READINGS
AVERAGING IN THE L30S BY DAWN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
A RAPID WARM UP IS IN STORE SUNDAY...AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES
EAST OF THE AREA AND MILDER RETURN SOUTHWEST FLOW ADVECTS MUCH
WARMER AIR ALOFT. EVEN WITHOUT IDEAL MIXING...THE ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE...COMBINED WITH 850 MB TEMPS INCREASING TO 5C SHOULD
TRANSLATE TO HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. AS PREVIOUS
SHIFT NOTED...THESE HIGHS COULD BE AT LEAST A FEW DEG F TOO COOL
ACROSS THE CENTRAL VALLEYS AND SUSQ VALLEY...SHOULD MIXING DEEPEN
ENOUGH TO TAP THE WARMER AIR ALOFT.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS WE HAVE SEEN FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS...THE LONG TERM MODELS AND
GENERAL PATTERN LEAD A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST OF VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES AND NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL. THE LONG WAVE
RIDGE IN PLACE AS WE START THE PERIOD WILL BE WEAKENED SLIGHTLY
BY A COUPLE OF SYSTEMS ROLLING OFF TO OUR NORTH.
STRONG SFC ANTICYCLONE - A BERMUDA HIGH - OFF KHAT WILL DIRECT THE
FIRST SYSTEM WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. THE
THINNING MOISTURE RIBBON OF /INITIALLY/ 1 INCH PWATS ALONG OF THE
WARM FRONT WILL LEAD TO A SLUG OF WARM ADVECTIVE RAIN/SHOWERS.
TIMING FOR SHOWERS WOULD BE MONDAY AFTN/EVENING. INSTABILITY PROGS
YIELD BARELY MARGINAL LI/S EXIST AS IT MOVES THROUGH...BUT ELEVATED
THUNDER POSSIBLE IN THE WEST. ALL THIS IS WELL-COLLABORATED AMONG
THE VARIOUS MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. DRYING BEHIND THE FIRST
SYSTEM MAY TAKE A DAY OR SO WITH MOIST SWRLY FLOW AT THE SFC IN THE
WARM SECTOR. SCT SHRA EXPECTED ON TUES AS THE LEADING EDGE OF COOLER
- BUT STILL ABNORMALLY MILD - AIR MOVES DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
RIDGE ALOFT IS FLATTENED A BIT BUT REBOUNDS QUICKLY WITH THE AXIS
OVER THE CENTRAL US AND UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE BERMUDA HIGH WEAKENS
AND GETS DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH BUT THEN REBOUNDS AND THE LLVL FLOW
REMAINS DECIDEDLY S/SW. THE SECOND AND VERY WEAK UPPER SHORT WAVE IS
A TINY TAIL FROM A SYSTEM THAT GOES OVER HUDSON BAY. THE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH GETS LOST IN THE VERY HIGH HEIGHTS OVER THE BULK OF THE
CONUS. BUT ENOUGH FORCING AND INFLOW FROM THE WESTERN GULF EXISTS
THURS/FRI TO KEEP A VERY LOW CHC OF PRECIP IN FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK...BUT MOST OF THE TIME WILL BE DRY BETWEEN TUESDAY AND
SATURDAY/DAY 7 AS THE RIDGE SLIDES TO THE EAST. FAIRLY HIGH
CONFIDENCE FOR THE LAST DAY OF A 7-DAY FORECAST. DEEP LONG-WAVE
TROUGH IN THE WEST AND OUR BIG RIDGE OVERHEAD WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST
MOISTURE TO OUR WEST. WILL DRAW A LOW CHC OF PRECIP IN FOR SAT
SINCE THE SWRLY FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH MOISTURE MAY BE ABLE TO FORM A
WEAK SFC TROUGH OVER THE MS/OH VALLEYS AND BRING SCT SHOWERS TO THE
REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED ALONG THE SRN MID-ATLC COAST WILL YIELD TO
AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM BY MON AFTN. THIS SYSTEM MAY BRING
REDUCED FLYING CONDS LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH OCNL -SHRA.
HIGH PRES RETURNS FOR MID TO LATE WEEK WITH MAINLY VFR CONDS XPCD.
OUTLOOK...
MON NGT-TUE...CHC OF SHRA/REDUCED CIGS MAINLY N-W MTNS.
WED-THU...VFR.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...DANGELO
AVIATION...STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1228 AM EST SUN MAR 11 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND REMAIN OFF OF
THE EASTERN SEABOARD FOR SEVERAL DAYS. A WEAK FRONT WILL BRUSH THE
REGION ON MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...
THE COMING WEEK WILL BE FAIR AND UNSEASONABLY WARM.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
DESPITE CLEAR SKIES AND LOW DEWPOINTS...TEMPS SLOW TO FALL
TONIGHT DUE TO A DEVELOPING SW BREEZE. HRRR AND RUC GUIDANCE
INDICATE LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPS BTWN 05Z-12Z WITH READINGS
AVERAGING IN THE L30S BY DAWN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
A RAPID WARM UP IS IN STORE SUNDAY...AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES
EAST OF THE AREA AND MILDER RETURN SOUTHWEST FLOW ADVECTS MUCH
WARMER AIR ALOFT. EVEN WITHOUT IDEAL MIXING...THE ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE...COMBINED WITH 850 MB TEMPS INCREASING TO 5C SHOULD
TRANSLATE TO HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. AS PREVIOUS
SHIFT NOTED...THESE HIGHS COULD BE AT LEAST A FEW DEG F TOO COOL
ACROSS THE CENTRAL VALLEYS AND SUSQ VALLEY...SHOULD MIXING DEEPEN
ENOUGH TO TAP THE WARMER AIR ALOFT.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS WE HAVE SEEN FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS...THE LONG TERM MODELS AND
GENERAL PATTERN LEAD A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST OF VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES AND NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL. THE LONG WAVE
RIDGE IN PLACE AS WE START THE PERIOD WILL BE WEAKENED SLIGHTLY
BY A COUPLE OF SYSTEMS ROLLING OFF TO OUR NORTH.
STRONG SFC ANTICYCLONE - A BERMUDA HIGH - OFF KHAT WILL DIRECT THE
FIRST SYSTEM WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. THE
THINNING MOISTURE RIBBON OF /INITIALLY/ 1 INCH PWATS ALONG OF THE
WARM FRONT WILL LEAD TO A SLUG OF WARM ADVECTIVE RAIN/SHOWERS.
TIMING FOR SHOWERS WOULD BE MONDAY AFTN/EVENING. INSTABILITY PROGS
YIELD BARELY MARGINAL LI/S EXIST AS IT MOVES THROUGH...BUT ELEVATED
THUNDER POSSIBLE IN THE WEST. ALL THIS IS WELL-COLLABORATED AMONG
THE VARIOUS MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. DRYING BEHIND THE FIRST
SYSTEM MAY TAKE A DAY OR SO WITH MOIST SWRLY FLOW AT THE SFC IN THE
WARM SECTOR. SCT SHRA EXPECTED ON TUES AS THE LEADING EDGE OF COOLER
- BUT STILL ABNORMALLY MILD - AIR MOVES DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
RIDGE ALOFT IS FLATTENED A BIT BUT REBOUNDS QUICKLY WITH THE AXIS
OVER THE CENTRAL US AND UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE BERMUDA HIGH WEAKENS
AND GETS DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH BUT THEN REBOUNDS AND THE LLVL FLOW
REMAINS DECIDEDLY S/SW. THE SECOND AND VERY WEAK UPPER SHORT WAVE IS
A TINY TAIL FROM A SYSTEM THAT GOES OVER HUDSON BAY. THE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH GETS LOST IN THE VERY HIGH HEIGHTS OVER THE BULK OF THE
CONUS. BUT ENOUGH FORCING AND INFLOW FROM THE WESTERN GULF EXISTS
THURS/FRI TO KEEP A VERY LOW CHC OF PRECIP IN FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK...BUT MOST OF THE TIME WILL BE DRY BETWEEN TUESDAY AND
SATURDAY/DAY 7 AS THE RIDGE SLIDES TO THE EAST. FAIRLY HIGH
CONFIDENCE FOR THE LAST DAY OF A 7-DAY FORECAST. DEEP LONG-WAVE
TROUGH IN THE WEST AND OUR BIG RIDGE OVERHEAD WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST
MOISTURE TO OUR WEST. WILL DRAW A LOW CHC OF PRECIP IN FOR SAT
SINCE THE SWRLY FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH MOISTURE MAY BE ABLE TO FORM A
WEAK SFC TROUGH OVER THE MS/OH VALLEYS AND BRING SCT SHOWERS TO THE
REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE VFR CONDS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. LIGHT
WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
UNTIL MONDAY EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
MON NGT-TUE...CHC OF SHRA/REDUCED CIGS MAINLY NW MTNS. WED-
THU...VFR.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...DANGELO
AVIATION...DEVOIR/CERU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
1055 PM CST SAT MAR 10 2012
.DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 850 PM CST/
ALLOWED RED FLAG WARNING TO EXPIRE AS PLANNED WITH WINDS DIMINISHING
AND RH VALUES CLIMBING AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES COOLED. OTHER THAN
FRESHENING UP THE GRIDS...FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK WITH MINOR
UPDATES OUT.
&&
.AVIATION.../FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE/
TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. HOWEVER THERE ARE SOME NON
CONVECTIVE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONCERNS IN OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES...
WHICH INCLUDES THE HURON TAF. ALTHOUGH THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL REMAIN
STRONG EVERYWHERE IN OUR FORECAST AREA...OUR NORTHWEST ZONES WILL
SEE THE MOST DECOUPLING AT THE SURFACE CREATING FAIRLY LIGHT
WINDS...AND THUS THE MOST LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR. OTHERWISE ON
SUNDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE NORTHWARD. MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY ENCROACH IN ALONG AND EAST OF I 29 AS THE DAY PROGRESSES
ON SUNDAY...WITH RAIN CHANCES IN THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON
THROUGHOUT THAT SAME AREA. ON SUNDAY EVENING...MVFR IN RAIN WILL
MOVE THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE
JAMES RIVER.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 300 PM CST/
ADDED LAST FIRE WEATHER ZONE TO RED FLAG WARNING PRIOR TO 19Z...AS
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THAT ZONE WERE ALSO FALLING TO BELOW 25 PERCENT RH
AND WINDS THERE GUSTING TO NEAR 25 MPH OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER. NORTHERN
PARTS OF THAT ZONE NOT LIKELY TO HIT RED FLAG CRITERIA...BUT LATEST
OBS ARE SHOWING RH VALUES AT KHON FLIRTING WITH 25 PERCENT AS OF 20Z
AS WELL. DEW POINTS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY CLIMBING ACROSS OUR SD COUNTIES
AS THE HRRR ALLUDED TO ON ITS EARLIER RUNS...WHICH LENDS CONFIDENCE
TO USING THIS FOR SOME GUIDANCE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. INCREASED
DEW POINTS NOT ENOUGH TO RAISE RELATIVE HUMIDITY SIGNIFICANTLY IN
OUR SOUTHWEST THOUGH...AS TEMPS WARMING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S
ARE KEEPING RH VALUES AT OR BELOW 20 PERCENT. SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA
NOT YET DOWN TO 25 PERCENT BUT GETTING VERY CLOSE AS OF 20Z AND
STRONGEST WINDS STILL SEEN IN THAT AREA WITH GUSTS TO 35+MPH MUCH OF
THE AFTERNOON. SO ALL IN ALL LOOKS LIKE A GOOD RED FLAG WARNING
THROUGHOUT THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
AS FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT DEW POINTS TO JUMP A BIT AND WIND GUSTS TO
DROP OFF WITH SUNSET...SO EXPIRATION OF RED FLAG WARNING AT 6PM
LOOKS OK. SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD STAY FAIRLY STEADY IN 10-15MPH MOST
AREAS TONIGHT. SLIGHTLY HIGHER SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...BUT NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS STRONG AS LAST NIGHT AS LOW
LEVEL JET NOT AS STRONG ACROSS THIS AREA. THE MODEST WINDS AND SOME
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH MORE SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FETCH
WILL HOLD TEMPS UP A BIT FROM LAST NIGHT...AND HAVE BUMPED LOWS UP A
FEW DEGREES INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S.
APPROACH OF UPPER LOW SUNDAY WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. STILL THE INITIAL INTRUSION OF SHOWERS ALOFT WILL
HAVE TROUBLE GETTING TO THE SURFACE AND WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE
PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE MORNING. OTHERWISE EXPECT THE UPPER LOW AND
ITS HALF DECENT DYNAMICS TO COMBINE WITH THE INCREASING MOISTURE
AND MEAGER THERMAL SUPPORT TO PRODUCE A HIGH PROBABILITY/ LOW QPF
EVENT OF RAIN FOR OUR EASTERN FORECAST AREA...THOUGH NOT SO LOW THAT
A TENTH OF AN INCH OR TWO COULD NOT BE SPIT OUT. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
MAY GET INTO THE WEST ALSO. TIMING IS MAINLY SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH
SYSTEM MOVING OUT STEADILY MONDAY AND DRY OVER THE AREA BY NOON. MID
AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MOST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WHICH GOES INTO THE COMING WEEKEND. STEADILY
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PUMP UP LOW TEMPERATURES WHILE
DAYTIME HIGHS ARE IN THE 60S AND 70S. BASICALLY MID TO LATE APRIL
WEATHER. AS MAJOR TROUGH DIGS OVER THE WEST COAST THERE COULD BE A
WEAK WAVE OR TWO COME UP AHEAD OF TROUGH IN SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER
FLOW. ACCORDINGLY HAVE MENTIONED A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR
SATURDAY. THIS IS AHEAD OF MAIN SYSTEM AND THE DRY WARM SPELL COULD
GO THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER THE AIR WILL BE GETTING MORE
UNSTABLE IN ADDITION TO THE MOISTURE INCREASE...SO THE GUIDANCE
INDICATION OF PRECIPITATION THREAT WILL BE FOLLOWED FOR NOW. THREAT
OF SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM AND SEVERE WEATHER EVENT CONTINUES TO BE
BEYOND FORECAST PERIOD AS 00Z GFS RUN WAS NOT ACCEPTED HERE.
/WILLIAMS
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
MN...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SD...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1101 PM CST SAT MAR 10 2012
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
252 PM CST SAT MAR 10 2012
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON THE EXPECTED PRECIPITATION SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT.
CURRENTLY AS OF 20Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED THE MAIN BELT OF THE WESTERLIES TRAVERSING FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA...THEN DOWN INTO TROUGHING OVER
NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER...IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM...AN UPPER LOW WAS
PRESENT OVER NEW MEXICO WITH RIDGING BUILDING UP AHEAD OF IT OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. MOISTURE SO FAR AHEAD OF THIS UPPER LOW
HAS ADVECTED INTO OKLAHOMA...NOTED BY SHOWERS...LOWER LEVEL STRATUS
AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. A MUCH DIFFERENT SITUATION
EXISTS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO OUR REGION...THOUGH. 12Z
SOUNDINGS FROM BIS...ABR...OAX AND MPX ALL DEPICTED A VERY DRY
ATMOSPHERE. 850MB TEMPS HAVE WARMED FAIRLY DRAMATICALLY SINCE LAST
NIGHT TOO...WITH MPX JUMPING FROM -1C AT 00Z TO 13C AT 12Z. PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE...BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS FROM 30 TO 45 MPH
AND THE DRY AIR HAS ALLOWED FOR TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 60S
OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. EXCEPTION TO THIS IS OVER THE
SNOWPACK IN TAYLOR COUNTY WHERE READINGS ARE STILL IN THE MID 50S.
DEWPOINTS HAVE STRUGGLED TO FALL MUCH SO FAR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...
THOUGH. THINKING THIS IS DUE TO MOISTURE STILL IN THE SOIL
EVAPOTRANSPIRATING. CONDITIONS ARE STILL CONDUCIVE FOR FIRES...
THOUGH...NOTED BY A FIRE THAT OCCURRED NEAR MANKATO MN SEEN ON MPX
RADAR.
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC IS PROGGED
TO SLIDE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...CAUSING THE UPPER LOW IN NEW
MEXICO TO LIFT UP INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE SPEED OF THIS UPPER
LOW EJECTION HAS REMAINED NEARLY CONSISTENT FOR THE PAST FEW
DAYS...THOUGH THE SPEED AT WHICH MOISTURE/PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE
UPPER LOW HAS SLOWED DOWN. IN FACT...THE 10.12Z ECMWF...GFS...NAM...
CANADIAN AND UKMET ARE ALL NOW DRY FOR SUNDAY. GIVEN THE CURRENT DRY
AIRMASS...THINK THE DRIER TREND IS THE WAY TO GO AND REMOVED ANY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR SUNDAY. WE SHOULD SEE SOME MID/HIGH CLOUD
COVER ADVECT IN FROM THE SOUTH DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...THOUGH. A
WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT IS PROGGED TONIGHT THAN WHAT OCCURRED THIS
MORNING...BUT A 5 TO 15 MPH SOUTHWEST WIND LOOKS TO PERSIST. THE
WIND WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES UP SOMEWHAT...THOUGH THE DRY
AIRMASS DOES LEND ITSELF FOR BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING.
THEREFORE...HAVE KEPT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST LOWS ABOUT THE SAME.
HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE TRICKY BECAUSE OF THE INCOMING CLOUDS. CERTAINLY
THE DRY AIR AND A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND ARE HELPFUL TO HAVE
ANOTHER WARM DAY...IN ADDITION TO 850MB TEMPS HOLDING BETWEEN 8-10C.
DECIDED TO LEAN TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE MET/ECMWF/REGIONAL CANADIAN
GUIDANCE GIVEN GOOD PERFORMANCE IN THESE ABOVE NORMAL SCENARIOS.
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
EJECTING NORTHEASTWARD...CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY MORNING.
BY 00Z TUESDAY...THE UPPER LOW SHOULD BE LOCATED OVER EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR. IMPRESSIVE CHANGE IN 500MB HEIGHTS FOR THE FORECAST AREA.
FROM 00-12Z MONDAY...THESE HEIGHTS FALL AROUND 150 METERS. SO
DEFINITELY GOOD FORCING IN THIS TIME PERIOD FOR PRECIPITATION. ON
THE FLIP SIDE...BETWEEN 12Z MONDAY-00Z TUESDAY...THE HEIGHTS RISE
40-100 METERS...INDICATING DECENT SUBSIDENCE. WHEN LOOKING AT MODEL
QPF OUTPUT THE SAME SIGNAL SHOWS UP...WHERE SHOWERS SPREAD SOUTH TO
NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN END SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST MONDAY. VERY
GOOD AGREEMENT EXISTS AMONGST THE MODELS FOR PRECIPITATION...SO HAVE
RAISED PRECIPITATION CHANCES UP TO 100 WITH A LITTLE EXTRA TIMING
INFORMATION INCLUDED. AS FAR AS QPF AMOUNTS GO...PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES CLIMB TO 250-300 PERCENT OF NORMAL...THOUGH MUCH OF THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT ENDS UP SHUNTED OFF TO THE EAST. VERY
LITTLE IF ANY CAPE IS PROGGED DUE TO MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES. NO
HINTS AT ANY UPPER JET FORCING EITHER. THEREFORE...THINK QPF AMOUNTS
OVERALL WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT...ON THE ORDER OF 0.25-0.5 INCHES. WITH
THE MOISTURE COMING UP...EXPECT LOWS TO STAY ON THE MILD SIDE SUNDAY
NIGHT. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL TEND TO
KEEP THINGS COOLER ON MONDAY...RELATIVELY SPEAKING FOR MID MARCH
GIVEN THAT HIGHS ARE STILL GOING TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...500MB HEIGHTS ARE PROGGED TO RISE
FURTHER...DUE TO THE UPPER LOW MOVING FARTHER AWAY...AND YET ANOTHER
UPPER TROUGH FORECAST TO DIG INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AS
SUCH...WE GET A SURGE OF WARMER AIR AT 850MB TEMPS TO ADVECT INTO
THE FORECAST AREA...CLIMBING FROM 6-10C AT 12Z TUESDAY TO 10-12C AT
00Z WEDNESDAY. OTHER THAN A LITTLE LINGERING STRATUS EARLY MONDAY
NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LOW...AS WELL AS A FEW MID CLOUDS TO
PASS THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY...MUCH OF THIS TIME PERIOD LOOKS TO
BE CLEAR. IN FACT...SOUNDINGS ON TUESDAY LOOK PRETTY DRY WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW US TO WARM NICELY. SO AFTER A NIGHT IN THE MID 30S TO
LOW 40S MONDAY NIGHT...ANTICIPATING TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND BACK
WELL INTO THE 60S. IN FACT...SOME LOCATIONS COULD REACH 70...
ESPECIALLY IN FAR WESTERN SECTIONS.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
252 PM CST SAT MAR 10 2012
AS STATED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS AND STILL HOLDS TRUE...THE MAIN
STORY IS THE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH. PRETTY MUCH THE ENTIRE LONG
TERM PERIOD...ACCORDING TO ALL 10.00Z/12Z MODELS...FEATURES
SOUTHWEST FLOW FROM SAY NORTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO HUDSON BAY...
ALLOWING FOR RIDGING AND DOWNSLOPED PACIFIC AIR TO DOMINATE THE
EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE U.S.. TOWARDS THE WEEKEND...THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW AMPLIFIES OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AS DEEP TROUGHING FORMS ALONG
THE WEST COAST. IF ANYTHING...THIS COULD SEND EVEN WARMER AIR
TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA. 850MB TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM
PERIOD ARE PROGGED AT 2 TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. AS
SUCH...WE COULD BE DEALING WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE RECORD
HIGHS EVERY DAY. IN GENERAL 850MB TEMPS HOLD BETWEEN 10-14C...WITH
THE WARMEST OF THESE ON WEDNESDAY. WITH WHAT LOOKS TO BE PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE THROUGHOUT...STAYED TOWARDS THE HIGH END OF ALL AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE AND FORECASTED HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. THESE
ARE READINGS ARE MORE SIMILAR OF MID MAY THAN MID MARCH.
REGARDING PRECIPITATION CHANCES...THESE ARE RESTRICTED TO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THEN FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A
DYING COLD FRONT PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA. NOT SURE IF THIS FRONT WILL CONVECT...BUT THE 10.12Z
ECMWF DOES SHOW A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT. THIS
SHORTWAVE COMBINED WITH A STREAM OF 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
INSTABILITY COULD RESULT IN SOME CONVECTION. MAINTAINED JUST A 20
PERCENT CHANCE IN FAR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. FOR FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...A STREAM OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY COMING UP OUT OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO MAY COMBINE WITH SOME SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO INITIATE CONVECTION. HARD TO TIME AND EXACT
DETAILS VERY UNCERTAIN...THUS CHANCES ARE KEPT AT A MODEL CONSENSUS
20-40 VALUE.
IF THE CFS MODEL IS RIGHT...WHICH IT HAS BEEN DOING FAIRLY WELL THE
PAST FEW MONTHS...THE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH LOOKS TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF APRIL.
CERTAINLY IN THE LATEST 10.12Z ECMWF...THE WARM AIR AT LEAST STICKS
AROUND THROUGH NEXT MONDAY AND LIKELY WELL BEYOND.
&&
.AVIATION...THROUGH 06Z MONDAY
1101 PM CST SAT MAR 10 2012
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 03Z MONDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH WIND SPEEDS GENERALLY 10 TO
15 KNOTS. SOME GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS IS POSSIBLE AT KRST BETWEEN 15Z-
22Z SUNDAY. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM LIFTING OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
MODELS CONSISTENT IN SHOWING LOW LEVEL SATURATION AND
PRECIPITATION BREAKING OUT BETWEEN 03Z-06Z AT BOTH TAF SITES. DID
LOWER CEILINGS INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AT KRST AROUND 05Z AND COULD
POSSIBLE SEE MVFR CEILINGS PRIOR TO 06Z AT KLSE.
BEYOND THE TAF PERIOD EXPECT CEILINGS TO CONTINUE TO DROP...WITH
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KRST AFTER 06Z.
&&
.CLIMATE...THROUGH SATURDAY
252 PM CST SAT MAR 10 2012
WE ARE APPROACHING RECORD HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON. WITH A FEW MORE
HOURS TO GO...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR EITHER TYING OR BREAKING.
STATIONS THAT HAVE LONG PERIODS OF RECORD...OVER 115 YEARS...1894
RECORDS EXIST FOR DECORAH /66F/...LA CROSSE /67F/...MEDFORD
/53F/...AND WINONA /64F/. MEANWHILE THOSE WITH SHORTER DATA
BASES...THE TEMPERATURES WILL THREATEN RECORDS EITHER SET IN 1967
OR 1977.
LOOKING AHEAD...A STRING OF NEAR RECORDS OR RECORD HIGHS APPEAR
LIKELY FOR TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AND COULD EVEN GO BEYOND
THIS. IN ADDITION...WE COULD ALSO APPROACH OR BREAK RECORD HIGH
MINIMUMS. AN ABNORMALLY STRONG RIDGE AND WARM AIR IS PROGGED TO
REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
READINGS LOOK TO BE MORE SIMILAR OF MID MAY VERSUS MID MARCH. STAY
TUNED TO SEE HOW WARM WE ACTUALLY GET. RECORDS HAVE BEEN POSTED ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...THROUGH MONDAY
252 PM CST SAT MAR 10 2012
SIMILAR TO THE EARLIER HYDROLOGY DISCUSSION...SOME MINOR CONCERNS
ABOUT WHETHER ANY FLOODING WILL OCCUR ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN
AS A RESULT OF A MELTING SNOW PACK AND RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. QPF AMOUNTS ARE STILL FORECAST BETWEEN 0.25-0.5 INCHES OVER
A LONG PERIOD WITH NO THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO OCCUR. WITH GRADUAL
MELTING DUE TO THE WARMER TEMPERATURES...CURRENTLY EXPECT TO SEE
SOME RIVER RISES ALONG THE BLACK AND MAYBE TREMPEALEAU RIVERS...BUT
PROBABLY NOT UP TO FLOOD STAGE AT THIS POINT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...THROUGH SUNDAY
550 PM CST SAT MAR 10 2012
WILL ALLOW RED FLAG WARNING TO EXPIRE AT 6 PM.
LOOKING AHEAD TO SUNDAY...MORE MOISTURE STREAMING FROM THE SOUTH AND
INCREASING CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON SHOULD KEEP THE RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES FROM DROPPING BELOW 30 PERCENT. LOWEST HUMIDITIES ARE
PLANNED OVER SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN...WHICH IN THIS AREA THE FUELS ARE
A LITTLE MORE MOIST. WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO BE QUITE A BIT
LIGHTER THAN THOSE SEEN TODAY. THEREFORE...CONDITIONS FOR FIRES WILL
NOT BE AS GOOD AS THEY WERE TODAY.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
550 PM CST SAT MAR 10 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...RABERDING
CLIMATE...BOYNE/AJ
HYDROLOGY...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1058 PM MST SAT MAR 10 2012
.UPDATE...
DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE DOWN TO 5 DEGREES HERE AT KCYS AND 7 OUT
AT KSNY. HRRR IS BEGINNING TO CATCH ON TO THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG
DEVELOPMENT IN EXTREME SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THROUGH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE ONE CONCERN IS THAT MID/UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE THICKENING
AT THE SAME TIME WHICH MAY LIMIT THE SPATIAL EXTENT OF ANY FOG.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH TO ADD AT LEAST PATCHY MENTION TO THE
FORECAST IN THESE AREAS.
&&
.AVIATION...06Z TAF ISSUANCE...
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTH ALONG THE FRONT RANGE...SO AM
GROWING MORE CONCERNED FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT AT KCYS...KBFF...KSNY
AND KAIA THROUGH SUNRISE. ONE FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS MID/UPPER-
LEVEL CLOUDS THAT WILL BE STREAM NORTH INTO THE AREA AS
WELL...WHICH MAY LIMIT SOME OF THE LOWER FOG DEVELOPMENT.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH TO ADD FOG MENTION TO THE AFOREMENTIONED
TAF SITES. ELSEWHERE...THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN JUST TOO DRY FOR
ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT...SO KEPT THEM VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. ANY FOG
THAT IS ABLE TO DEVELOP WILL LIFT BY THE MID-MORNING HOURS GIVING
WAY TO BREEZY VFR CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 522 PM MST SAT MAR 10 2012/
UPDATE...
COOLING TEMPERATURES...CLIMBING RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND CALMING
WINDS THIS EVENING HAS BROUGHT AN END TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. THEREFORE...HAVE
ALLOWED THE RED FLAG WARNING TO EXPIRE ON TIME AT 5 PM.
AVIATION...00Z TAF ISSUANCE. CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. WINDS RELATIVELY LIGHT ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS WITH SOME
GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS EARLY THIS EVENING.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 PM MST SAT MAR 10 2012/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
FORECAST CHALLENGES DEAL WITH TEMPERATURES...WINDS AND FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY.
CURRENTLY...LEE SIDE TROUGH SEEN IN SURFACE ANALYSIS ACROSS EXTREME
EASTERN WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON IS MAKING A TRICKY SITUATION FOR
WINDS AND HUMIDITIES IN THE PANHANDLE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
ADVECTING NORTH FROM SOUTHERN COLORADO. HAVE 30 DEGREE DEW POINTS
IN THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AT SIDNEY WHILE JUST A COUNTY AWAY IN
KIMBALL...DEW POINTS ARE CURRENTLY 5. CURRENT RED FLAG WARNING IS
VERIFYING IN SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PANHANDLE...NAMELY
KIMBALL...BANNER AND BOX BUTTE COUNTIES...WITH THE REMAINDER OF
THE PANHANDLE PRETTY CLOSE. SO WILL KEEP THE RFW GOING THROUGH ITS
EXPIRATION TIME OF 5 PM. FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS NEW MEXICO...A
CUTOFF UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN...MOVING EVER SO SLOWLY
EASTWARD. THIS SYSTEM WILL GIVE US A REPRIEVE ON THE DRY
CONDITIONS POSSIBLY SUNDAY.
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO BE SITUATED ACROSS
THE WESTERN KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER JUST SOUTHWEST OF LEXINGTON
NEBRASKA. WINDS LOOK TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF
THE LOW. MODELS HINT AT SOME VERY LIGHT QPF OVER THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE NEAR SIDNEY TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND CONTINUED THE
INHERITED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR CHEYENNE COUNTY.
WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH TRACKS FROM SOUTHERN IDAHO INTO MONTANA. 700MB WINDS
RESPOND BY INCREASING TO 50KT BY 12Z MONDAY...CONTINUING THROUGH
TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME...HAVE OUR WIND PRONE AREAS APPROACHING HIGH
WIND WARNING CRITERIA. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR POSSIBLE HEADLINES
FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. VERY DRY CONDITIONS FORECAST EAST
OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WITH STRONG DOWNSLOPING WINDS. CONFIDENCE
GROWING THAT FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED FOR OUR FIRE
WEATHER ZONES REPORTING CURED FUELS FOR BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...LONG RANGE MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATING THE WEATHER
PATTERN ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES INTO FRIDAY AS A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS NEAR THE PACIFIC COASTLINE. THIS WILL
RESULT IN WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A CONTINUATION OF DRY
WEATHER ALONG WITH WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO MIDDLE 70S EAST OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH SOME RECORD HIGHS
POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WILL
BE SLIGHTLY COOLER OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...BUT HIGHS WILL
STILL BE AROUND 60 DEGREES. A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL BRUSH THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...RESULTING IN WINDY
CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING AS 700MB WINDS
INCREASE TO 50 KNOTS.
BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MODELS SHOW SHORT WAVE ENERGY FROM THE
MAIN PACIFIC TROUGH EJECTING EAST AND NORTHEAST. THE TIMING OF THE
COOLER AIR AND POSSIBLE RAIN/SNOW IS UNCERTAIN...BUT EXPECT A
DRAMATIC CHANGE TO THE WEATHER PATTERN BY THE THIRD WEEK OF MARCH.
CONTINUED TO LOWER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED POP ESPECIALLY WEST
OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS EVENING WITH FAIR TO
EXCELLENT OVERNIGHT HUMIDITY RECOVERIES. LOOK FOR A BRIEF REPRIEVE
IN THE WINDS SUNDAY BEFORE THEY BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH HIGH
WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES ARE POSSIBLE BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR THE PANHANDLE AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE IN
SOUTHEAST WYOMING.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...WITH UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES FORECAST FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...THE POTENTIAL FOR ICE JAM BREAKING AND
FLOODING WILL EXIST ALONG RIVERS AND STEAMS WEST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE. THIS INCLUDES THE MEDICINE BOW...ENCAMPMENT...LITTLE SNAKE
AND UPPER NORTH PLATTE RIVERS.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE/AVIATION...HAHN
SHORT TERM/FIRE WEATHER...CLAYCOMB
LONG TERM...TJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
818 AM EDT SUN MAR 11 2012
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 AM EDT SUN MAR 11 2012/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO DOMINATE
THE AREA TODAY WITH RIDGING BUILDING IN ALOFT AND GENERAL EASTERLY
FLOW AT THE SURFACE. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS ONLY SLIGHTLY WARMER TODAY
THAN YESTERDAY. CUTOFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE NORTHEAST AS CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION SPREAD OVER THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AS SURFACE FLOW SHIFTS TO MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY LATER TODAY IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING FRONT...
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WILL BE ADVECTED INTO THE REGION. THE NAM IS A
LITTLE STRONGER THAN MODEL CONSENSUS WITH THE SURFACE SYSTEM
APPROACHING THE AREA...WITH STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. IT THUS HAS A FASTER PACE OF RETURN MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT. HAVE GENERALLY SIDED WITH THE GFS/ECMWF...BUT IN-HOUSE 4KM
WRF AND HRRR HINT THAT THE NAM MAY BE ONTO SOMETHING AND THAT
ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO THE ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE TODAY. HAVE CONTINUED TREND OF SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS
BEGINNING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST...ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE HIGH.
LOW TEMPS TONIGHT /AS IN SUNDAY NIGHT/ WILL BE MARKEDLY HIGHER
THAN LOW TEMPS AT AFD TIME /SUNDAY MORNING LOWS/ DUE TO THE
MOISTURE INCREASE AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER. HIGH TEMPS MONDAY
SHOULD BEGIN THEIR SLOW BUT STEADY INCREASE THAT WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEK. FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH
AFTERNOON CAPES PROGGED IN THE 200-400 J/KG RANGE MAINLY IN
EXTREME WESTERN ZONES. BEST CAPE REMAINS OVER ALABAMA BUT WITH THE
PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT...CANNOT RULE OUT THUNDER ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON BUT HAVE LIMITED IT TO SLIGHT CHANCE. POPS IN NORTH
GEORGIA REMAIN VERY HIGH BUT EXPECT LOW QPF AMOUNTS.
AS MAIN DYNAMICS LIFT NORTH WITH THE CLOSED LOW...WHICH WILL BE
ABSORBED BY THE LONGWAVE SYSTEM IN CANADA...THE FRONT BEGINS TO
STALL AND DISSIPATE. SOME UNCERTAINTY IN AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AND
LIFT AVAILABLE MONDAY NIGHT SO HAVE LIMITED POPS TO SLIGHT
CHANCE...BUT LATER FORECASTS MAY NEED TO INCREASE POPS ESPECIALLY
NORTH MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
TDP
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT KEEPS THE SURFACE FRONT FROM PROGRESSING
THROUGH THE CWA ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER THE CWA IS LEFT WITH INCREASING
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW. ALTHOUGH THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...THE GFS ESPECIALLY SHOWS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES
ORIGINATING IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM AND MOVING OVER THE RIDGE TO
AFFECT NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA. ECMWF SHOWS THE SHORT WAVES BEING
PUSHED FURTHER TO OUR NORTH. WITH THIS UNCERTAIN PATTERN...LOW POPS
SEEM REASONABLE FOR EACH PERIOD. CAPES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE BETWEEN
500 AND 1000 DURING THE WEEK...SO HAVE LEFT IN A MENTION OF THUNDER
FOR EACH DAY. WITH RIDGING ALOFT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARM
AND SHOULD BE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST AREAS.
41
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
LOW VFR TO MVFR CIGS MOVING IN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TAF AREAS THIS
MORNING. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTH THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS...WITH SOME BRIEF IMPROVEMENT POSSIBLE WITH THE HEATING OF
THE DAY AT NORTHERN TAFS. FOR SOUTHERN TAFS...EXPECT MVFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AND MVFR CIGS WILL LOWER EVERYWHERE AFTER
00Z WITH -SHRA MOVING IN AS WELL. TIMING OF IFR CIGS STILL UNCERTAIN
WITH SOME GUIDANCE BRINGING IT IN AS EARLY AS 03Z. HAVE CONTINUED
TREND FROM PREVIOUS TAF OF TAKING COMPROMISE AT 09Z. EAST TO
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD 5-10KT WITH GUSTS 15-20KT
FROM APPROXIMATELY 15Z-00Z TODAY.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON WINDS.
MEDIUM ON VSBY.
HIGH ON OCCURRENCE OF MVFR CIGS...MEDIUM ON IFR.
MEDIUM ON TIMING OF MVFR CIGS...LOW ON IFR.
TDP
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 67 48 66 52 / 10 30 40 40
ATLANTA 64 51 66 56 / 20 50 50 40
BLAIRSVILLE 62 46 59 50 / 10 70 80 50
CARTERSVILLE 64 51 66 54 / 20 70 80 50
COLUMBUS 67 55 73 58 / 20 30 40 40
GAINESVILLE 64 50 64 53 / 10 50 60 40
MACON 66 54 74 56 / 20 30 20 30
ROME 67 53 69 54 / 20 80 80 50
PEACHTREE CITY 65 52 69 52 / 20 50 50 40
VIDALIA 68 53 73 55 / 10 10 20 20
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
623 AM CDT SUN MAR 11 2012
...AVIATION UPDATE...
.DISCUSSION...
SEE PREV DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...
THERE IS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN HOW LOW THE CIGS WILL GO TODAY.
OBS OVER SOUTHERN KS HAVE GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE 2 KFT WHILE THE
RUC AND NAM PROGS WOULD SUGGEST IFR CIGS. THE RUC ESPECIALLY
LOOKS AGGRESSIVE WITH CIGS COMPARED TO LATEST OBS. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME IFR CIGS TO MOVE IN BUT THERE IS LITTLE
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING THEM. BECAUSE OF THIS HAVE LEANED MORE
OPTIMISTICALLY TOWARDS THE 1-2 KFT CIGS UNTIL THE IFR CIGS BECOME A
LITTLE MORE APPARENT. STILL FEEL LIKE THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN
PRECIP WITH THE INITIAL WAVE NOW MOVING ACROSS THE AREA BREAKING
UP BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THEN ANOTHER ROUND IS POSSIBLE AS THE UPPER
LOW PASSES OVERHEAD THIS EVENING. TEMPS SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR
PRECIP TO BE ALL LIQUID.
WOLTERS
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 AM CDT SUN MAR 11 2012/
TODAY/TONIGHT...WATER VAPOR SHOWS UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN NEW
MEXICO FINALLY ON THE MOVE. AHEAD OF THE LOW...BROAD WARM AIR
ADVECTION WAS ALLOWING FOR AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF SCT SHOWERS FROM
WESTERN/SOUTHERN KANSAS INTO OKLAHOMA. ANTICIPATE ACTIVITY TO THE
SOUTH TO CONTINUE NORTHWARD INTO THE CWA THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. MODEL GUIDANCE AND CONSENSUS DATA SUGGEST HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION TO OCCUR OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA BETWEEN
12-16Z THIS MORNING. THEREAFTER THERE MAY BE A BREAK IN THE
PRECIPITATION UNTIL ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY DEVELOPS WITH APPROACH OF
UPPER LOBE OF VORTICITY...MOST LIKELY BEST COVERAGE IN THE EASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE CWA. A THIRD AREA OF PRECIPITATION MAY EVOLVE
UNDERNEATH THE UPPER LOW IN CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THE END RESULT
WILL BE LIKELY TO DEFINITE PROBABILITIES OF MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION OVER ALL OF THE CWA DURING PERIODS OF THE NEXT 18
HOURS. INSTABILITY WITH THIS SETUP IS VERY MEAGER...AND ONLY A
COUPLE RUMBLES OF THUNDER IS EXPECTED OVER THE CWA. THE LONE
EXCEPTION MAY BE JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA UNDERNEATH THE
UPPER LOW...WHERE ANY POTENTIAL CLEARING MAY ALLOW FOR STEEPER
LAPSE RATES AND SHALLOW CONVECTION WITH MODEST SHEAR PROFILES.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE TEMPERED BY THE EXPANSIVE CLOUD COVER
AND BOUTS OF PRECIPITATION...WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 50S. THE
UPPER LOW WILL QUICKLY DEPART THE CWA TONIGHT...WITH MOST SHOWER
COVERAGE ENDING SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 40S WEST TO THE UPPER 40S EAST. MOST CLOUD COVER WILL CLEAR
THE CWA BY SUNRISE MONDAY.
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A PERSISTENT UPPER PATTERN WITH LARGE
SCALE RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL FEATURE THIS ENTIRE
PERIOD. THIS WILL YIELD WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EACH
DAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S FOR ALL LOCATIONS IN THE
CWA. A FEW LOCATIONS MAY EVEN REACH OR EXCEED 80 DEGREES ON TUE AND
WED. SLIGHT CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THU-SAT AS THE
CWA RESIDES IN THE WARM SECTOR EAST OF A DRYLINE. WHILE NO
SUBSTANTIAL UPPER FORCING REMAINS EVIDENT IN THIS PERIOD...ANY MINOR
UPPER DISTURBANCE MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW SCT THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY
DURING PEAK HEATING/INSTABILITY.
BLAIR
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON MS
945 AM CDT SUN MAR 11 2012
.UPDATE...INITIAL BATCH OF PRECIPITATION NOW PASSING THROUGH WESTERN
MS PER LATEST RADAR IMAGERY. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT
NE ACROSS N/W AREAS THIS MORNING...AND THIS IS HANDLED WELL IN
CURRENT FORECAST. AFTER THIS PASSES THROUGH...INITIAL VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW SOME BREAKS IN CLOUDS ACROSS LA/SOUTHERN MS
WHICH SHOULD ALLOW SOME FILTERED PEEKS OF SUN AT TIMES ESPECIALLY
ACROSS S AND W AREAS TODAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH
FORECAST MAXES IN THE LOW/MID 70S...THOUGH WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE
ON THINGS IN NORTHERN AREAS WHERE MORE CLOUDS AND MORE EASTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW COULD KEEP THINGS A BIT COOLER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
AS FAR LATEST THINKING FOR CONVECTIVE RISK OVER WESTERN AREAS WHERE
SPC HAS OUTLOOKED A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE...RADAR/SATELLITE
INDICATES THAT CONVECTIVE BAND IS CURRENTLY INCREASING OVER EASTERN
TX. MODELS SUGGEST THIS ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE ROBUST
AS INSTABILITY INCREASES DURING THE DAY AND FORCING INTENSIFIES AS
UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER OVER TX PANHANDLE BEGINS TO EJECT OUT TO
THE NE. SFC DEWPOINTS ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING IN THE 50S/LOWER 60S
ACROSS LA...BUT 12Z RAOBS INDICATE THAT BETTER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
EXISTS JUST ABOVE A RELATIVELY SHALLOW LAYER OF COOLER AIR. EXPECT
THAT EVEN WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUDS...INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW AND
SOME FILTERED SUN WILL ALLOW MUCH OF THIS LOW LEVEL COOLER AIR TO BE
MIXED OUT AND THAT CONVECTION OVER E TX WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE
SFC BASED AS IT MOVES INTO LA. LATEST 11Z HRRR INDICATES BAND OF
STRONG CONVECTION WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS...UPDRAFT HELCITIY VALUES
IN EXCESS OF 125 M2/S2...WILL MOVE INTO OUR WESTERN AREAS AROUND
00Z. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE ASSUMING THAT INSTABILITY CAN EVOLVE IN
MANNER SUGGESTED BY HIGH RES MODELS AND 12Z NAM/00Z EC. GIVEN QUITE
FAVORABLE LOOKING SHEAR PROFILES WITH STRONGLY TURNING CLOCKWISE
HODOGRAPHS...0-1 KM SREH VALUES IN EXCESS OF 300 M2/S2...WOULD
EXPECT RISK OF A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY
A COUPLE OF TORNADOES WITH THIS ACTIVITY. PRIMARY RISK OF SEVERE IS
FOCUSED ALONG W OF MS RIVER AND ESPECIALLY NW OF A DELHI LA TO
INDIANOLA MS LINE WHERE BEST FORCING FROM EJECTING UPPER SYSTEM WILL
EXIST ALONG WITH MOST FAVORABLE OVERLAY OF SHEAR/INSTABILITY. MAIN
WINDOW OF SEVERE DEFINITELY LOOKS TO EXIST IN 00Z-06Z PERIOD WHEN
UPPER FORCING IS MAXIMIZED...THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY LOCAL WRF
WHICH HAS MAIN AREA OF STRONG STORMS PRODUCING DECENT WIND GUSTS
MOVING THROUGH DELTA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. WE HAVE TWEAKED THE
GRAPHICASTS TO MATCH ALL THIS THINKING. /08/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 420 AM CDT SUN MAR 11 2012/
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...JUST A QUICK HEADS UP
THAT IF YOU ARE READING THIS AND DO NOT REALIZE THE TIME HAS CHANGED
THEN YOU MIGHT BE AN HOUR LATE FOR SOMETHING.
IMPRESSIVE AND PHASING CLOSED LOW NOW CENTERED OVER THE PANHANDLES
OF TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA WILL BE MOVING NORTHEAST AT AN INCREASING PACE
THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH THE SOUTHEASTERN EXTENT OF UPPER FORCING
AFFECTING THE LOWER MS VALLEY. SOMEWHAT COMPLEX FRONTAL EVOLUTION
WILL TAKE PLACE IN OUR VICINITY THROUGH THIS TIME IN RESPONSE.
INITIALLY...PREVIOUSLY STALLED FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO WILL BE MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY AS A
WARM FRONT...BUT PERHAPS NOT CLEARING THE GOLDEN TRIANGLE REGION
UNTIL THIS EVENING. PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL WITH THIS WARM FRONTAL
PASSAGE DID NOT LOOK OVERLY IMPRESSIVE ON PREVIOUS EXAMINATION BUT
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AND CURRENT REGIONAL RADARS GIVE THE
IMPRESSION MANY AREAS COULD SEE MEASURABLE PRECIP THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. THINKING IS STILL THAT THIS INITIAL SHOWERY STUFF SHOULD
NOT STICK AROUND TOO LONG AND WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT.
BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON MOST OF THE REGION SHOULD BE IN THE WARM
SECTOR WITH RATHER GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND MAYBE A
FEW PATCHES OF SUNSHINE. A FEW SHOWERS WILL STILL BE ABOUT WITH
INCREASING INSTABILITY MEANING A STRAY THUNDERSTORMS IS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION EITHER (ALTHOUGH THE LATTER MAINLY APPLIES TO LOCATIONS
ALONG AND WEST OF THE HIGHWAY 49 CORRIDOR). BUT SOMEONE VIEWING
REGIONAL RADARS AT LATE AFTERNOON WILL PROBABLY FIND VIGOROUS SHOWER
AND STORM ACTIVITY LINING UP JUST WEST OF THE REGION ALONG A WEAK
COLD FRONT PRESSING IN FROM THE WEST.
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ASSESSED A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER WITH THE ACTIVITY ALONG THIS JUST-MENTIONED FRONTAL ZONE
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING. THEIR SLIGHT RISK BASICALLY
COVERS OUR NW COUNTIES ALONG THE RIVER AND ALL OUR AR COUNTIES AND
NE LA PARISHES WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL TO QUARTER SIZE BEING
THE MAIN RISKS. AN EXCEPTION TO TO THE LATTER STATEMENT COULD BE
ACROSS SE AR AND MOREHOUSE PARISH WHERE THE RISK OF A TORNADO IS
HIGHER DUE TO THERE RESPECTIVE PROXIMITY TO EXPECTED
INSTABILITY/SHEAR MAXIMUM. THE SPC`S ASSESSMENT SEEMS GOOD FROM OUR
VIEWPOINT BECAUSE WE ARE EXPECTING THE VIGOROUS STORMS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT TO BE MOVING INTO OUR FAR WESTERN AREAS IN THE EARLY
EVENING WITH WANING INSTABILITY MUCH AFTER THAT POINT REALLY RAMPING
DOWN SEVERE RISK FURTHER EAST. WILL UPDATE THE HWO TO REFINE SEVERE
RISKS...LOCATION AND TIMING.
AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS FORECASTS...HEAVY DOWNPOURS LOOK TO OCCUR
OVERNIGHT WITH ACTIVITY MOVING IN FROM THE WEST AND THE EXPECTATION
OF SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE AXIS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MEANS THAT SOME
AREAS COULD EXPERIENCE REPEATED HEAVY DOWNPOURS. ISOLATED RAINFALL
TOTALS (PARTICULARLY IN THE UPPER ARKLAMISS DELTA) BY DAYBREAK
MONDAY OF UP TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE BUT THIS SHOULD NOT CAUSE ANY
MAJOR FLOODING PROBLEMS. FURTHER EAST IN THE FORECAST AREA
ANTICIPATING AT LEAST SHOWERY ACTIVITY WITH SOME EMBEDDED STORMS TO
PICK UP AS THE NIGHT GOES ON AND BETTER GULF MOISTURE SURGES NORTH.
THE WEAK FRONT MOVING IN TONIGHT WILL DRAPE FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE
UPPER DELTA BY DAYBREAK MONDAY AND WILL BE BASICALLY STALLED AND
DILUTING...ALTHOUGH A DRYING AXIS ABOVE THE GROUND WILL STILL BE
PUSHING EAST AND LEAVING THE STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY BEHIND.
MODERATE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND WILL BE
SOMEWHAT PERTURBED...BUT THERE WILL BE NO BIG SHORTWAVES TO PROVIDE
LIFT. HOWEVER...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE GIVES CONFIDENCE THERE WILL BE
JUST ENOUGH LIFT TO ENSURE TRIAD OF MOISTURE/LIFT/INSTABILITY IS MET
AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM FORM (ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF THE
NATCHEZ TRACE) AS WE GO THROUGH THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS. PEAK
MEAN LAYER CAPE VALUES WILL EASILY RANGE FROM 1000-1500 J/KG IN MOST
OF THE REGION WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR RUNNING 10 KTS OR SO BELOW 40 KT
THRESHOLD FOR FULL STORM ORGANIZATION. THIS ASSESSMENT SUGGESTS AT
LEAST A STRONG STORM IS POSSIBLE ANYWHERE...BUT ANY ISOLATED SEVERE
ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY BE MAINLY LIMITED TO THE VICINITY OF THE
NATCHEZ TRACE CORRIDOR IN MS WHERE SREF SUGGESTS PEAK MLCAPE VALUES
EXCEEDING 1500 J/KG IS A DECENT POSSIBILITY. SEVERE STORM RISKS FOR
MONDAY SHOULD BE LIMITED TO HAIL AND WIND GUSTS. OH YEA...IT WILL
ALSO BE QUITE WARM ON MONDAY DESPITE THE CLOUDS WITH SOME FOG
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AFTER MOST OF THE ACTIVITY DIMINISHES IN THE
EVENING. /BB/
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH LATE WEEKEND....ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH LONG TERM WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOST AFTERNOONS/EARLY EVENINGS.
SYNOPTIC PATTERN BY EARLY/MID WEEK WILL FEATURE AN EXITING TROUGH
ACROSS THE EASTERN CANADIAN MARITIME WITH SUBTROPICAL RIDGING TAKING
HOLD OVER THE SE CONUS. THIS SUBTROPICAL RIDGING...ALONG WITH IN
SITU LOW-LVL MOISTURE CHARACTERIZED BY SFC DEWPOINTS VARYING BETWEEN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S THROUGH OUT THE WEEK...WILL KEEP AREA QUITE
WARM. MIN LOW TEMPS THROUGH PERIOD WILL BE ~10-14 DEGREES F ABOVE
NORMAL AND HIGHS BEING ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES F ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. THE LONG TERM PATTERN IS MORE REMINISCENT OF THE MONTH
OF MAY OPPOSED TO MARCH.
DUE TO INCREASING H7-H5 HEIGHTS ALONG WITH SLIGHT RIDGING TO ZONAL
SW FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL CONUS...MUCH OF THE JET STREAM ENERGY WILL BE
FAR REMOVED TO THE NORTH...LEAVING LITTLE...IF ANY DYNAMIC LIFTING
TO EFFECT THE REGION. HOWEVER...WITH ELEVATED SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOW 60S AND DAYTIME TEMPS EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE U70S/L80S...
MLCAPES OF 1500-2000 J/KG COULD BE REACHED DURING THE PEAK HEATING
HOURS THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. WHILE SUBTLE DIFFERENCES WILL
EXIST EACH DAY THAT WILL DETERMINE OVERALL THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND
POTENCY...(I.E. CAPPING AND LOWER THETA-E POCKETS ENTRAINED WITHIN
SE FLOW FROM GOM VS. SUBTLE S/WV`S EMBEDDED WITHIN SW H5 FLOW) EACH
DAY THROUGH SUNDAY APPEARS TO HAVE AT LEAST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWER/TSTORM COVERAGE. IT COULD ALSO BE CONCEIVABLE THAT WITH THE
RIGHT SUPPORT...SOME STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG AS THE H5-H3
TEMPERATURE PROFILE STILL REMAINS COOL AIDING IN BETTER LAPSE RATES.
AN OVERALL PATTERN CHANGE LOOKS TO OCCUR THROUGH THE LATE WEEKEND AS
A LARGE...HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH BEGINS TO MIGRATE ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS. THIS SYSTEM MAY BE ABLE TO SWING A FRONT THROUGH
THROUGH THE MID PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK (10-13 DAY TIME FRAME).
FOR FORECAST SPECIFICS...MIN LOW TEMPS WERE BUMPED UP 3-6 DEGREES
THROUGH PERIOD OVER MEXMOS GUIDANCE AS BOTH GFS/EC WERE IN
AGREEMENT OF HIGHER MOISTURE INFLUX. USED RAW GFS DEWPOINTS WITH
SOME ADJUSTMENTS AS MOS VALUES APPEARED TO LOW. POPS WERE
GENERALLY ACCEPTED BUT TWEAKED A BIT ON FRIDAY AS LARGER DRY POCKET
PER GFS/EC LOOKS TO ROTATE AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE GYRE. GIVEN LACK
OF ANY LIFT OTHER THAN THERMODYNAMIC BUOYANCY DURING PEAK HEATING
HOURS AND SOME SUSTAINING OUTFLOW COLLISIONS...POPS WERE CUT BACK
DURING MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS AS STABILIZATION OCCURS. /ALLEN/
&&
.AVIATION...PATCHY SUB-VFR (MAINLY MVFR) FLIGHT CATS WILL BUILD IN
FROM SW TO NE THIS MORNING DUE TO CEILINGS AS A WARM FRONT COMES UP
FROM THE SOUTH. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON WILL BE MOST PREVALENT NORTHWEST OF THE NATCHEZ
TRACE...BUT SHOULD GENERALLY NOT BE HEAVY. WINDS WILL BECOME
CONSISTENTLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST AFTER THE WARM FRONT PASSES AND WILL
BE GUSTY BY AFTERNOON. EXPECT A WEAK APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO BRING
MORE VIGOROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE AXIS OF THE MS RIVER BY MID
EVENING WITH AT LEAST SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY BUILDING FURTHER EAST
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MVFR TO IFR FLIGHT CATS LATER TONIGHT
DUE MAINLY TO CEILING RESTRICTIONS. /BB/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 74 62 80 61 / 68 77 57 25
MERIDIAN 72 60 81 60 / 50 54 67 39
VICKSBURG 76 63 80 61 / 80 82 43 14
HATTIESBURG 73 62 81 63 / 31 27 61 33
NATCHEZ 75 63 78 63 / 74 74 46 15
GREENVILLE 72 60 79 60 / 86 99 43 10
GREENWOOD 73 62 80 61 / 77 92 58 19
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
AG/BB/ALLEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
215 PM EDT SUN MAR 11 2012
.UPDATE...
INCREASED THE SKY GRIDS IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA TO HIGHLIGHT THE LATEST SATELLITE TREND AND SURFACE OBS.
OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AS MAX TEMPS...POPS AND
SURFACE WINDS ARE ON TRACK.
16
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 818 AM EDT SUN MAR 11 2012/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO DOMINATE
THE AREA TODAY WITH RIDGING BUILDING IN ALOFT AND GENERAL EASTERLY
FLOW AT THE SURFACE. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS ONLY SLIGHTLY WARMER TODAY
THAN YESTERDAY. CUTOFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE NORTHEAST AS CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION SPREAD OVER THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AS SURFACE FLOW SHIFTS TO MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY LATER TODAY IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING FRONT...
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WILL BE ADVECTED INTO THE REGION. THE NAM IS A
LITTLE STRONGER THAN MODEL CONSENSUS WITH THE SURFACE SYSTEM
APPROACHING THE AREA...WITH STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. IT THUS HAS A FASTER PACE OF RETURN MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT. HAVE GENERALLY SIDED WITH THE GFS/ECMWF...BUT IN-HOUSE 4KM
WRF AND HRRR HINT THAT THE NAM MAY BE ONTO SOMETHING AND THAT
ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO THE ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE TODAY. HAVE CONTINUED TREND OF SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS
BEGINNING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST...ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE HIGH.
LOW TEMPS TONIGHT /AS IN SUNDAY NIGHT/ WILL BE MARKEDLY HIGHER
THAN LOW TEMPS AT AFD TIME /SUNDAY MORNING LOWS/ DUE TO THE
MOISTURE INCREASE AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER. HIGH TEMPS MONDAY
SHOULD BEGIN THEIR SLOW BUT STEADY INCREASE THAT WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEK. FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH
AFTERNOON CAPES PROGGED IN THE 200-400 J/KG RANGE MAINLY IN
EXTREME WESTERN ZONES. BEST CAPE REMAINS OVER ALABAMA BUT WITH THE
PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT...CANNOT RULE OUT THUNDER ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON BUT HAVE LIMITED IT TO SLIGHT CHANCE. POPS IN NORTH
GEORGIA REMAIN VERY HIGH BUT EXPECT LOW QPF AMOUNTS.
AS MAIN DYNAMICS LIFT NORTH WITH THE CLOSED LOW...WHICH WILL BE
ABSORBED BY THE LONGWAVE SYSTEM IN CANADA...THE FRONT BEGINS TO
STALL AND DISSIPATE. SOME UNCERTAINTY IN AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AND
LIFT AVAILABLE MONDAY NIGHT SO HAVE LIMITED POPS TO SLIGHT
CHANCE...BUT LATER FORECASTS MAY NEED TO INCREASE POPS ESPECIALLY
NORTH MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
TDP
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT KEEPS THE SURFACE FRONT FROM PROGRESSING
THROUGH THE CWA ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER THE CWA IS LEFT WITH INCREASING
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW. ALTHOUGH THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...THE GFS ESPECIALLY SHOWS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES
ORIGINATING IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM AND MOVING OVER THE RIDGE TO
AFFECT NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA. ECMWF SHOWS THE SHORT WAVES BEING
PUSHED FURTHER TO OUR NORTH. WITH THIS UNCERTAIN PATTERN...LOW POPS
SEEM REASONABLE FOR EACH PERIOD. CAPES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE BETWEEN
500 AND 1000 DURING THE WEEK...SO HAVE LEFT IN A MENTION OF THUNDER
FOR EACH DAY. WITH RIDGING ALOFT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARM
AND SHOULD BE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST AREAS.
41
AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
MIXTURE OF MOSTLY VFR WITH SCATTERED MVFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY
SHOULD BECOME VFR AREAWIDE BY 20Z. MVFR CONDITIONS SPREAD NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 02Z AND 06Z WITH IFR CONDITIONS
PREDOMINATING AFTER 10Z. SOME IMPROVEMENT POSSIBLE BACK INTO THE
MVFR RANGE AFTER 16Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WINDS SPEEDS 7-10KT THROUGH 00Z WITH GUSTS 15-18KT...
BECOMING 5KT OR LESS THROUGH 13Z BEFORE BEGINNING TO INCREASE ONCE
AGAIN INTO THE 5-10KT RANGE. CHANCE OF RAIN WILL INCREASE AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH SHOWERS LIKELY ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA BY EARLY MONDAY.
CHANCE OF ISOLATED THUNDER LIMITED TO AFTER 16Z MONDAY.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON WINDS.
MEDIUM OTHER ELEMENTS.
20
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 67 48 66 52 / 10 30 40 40
ATLANTA 64 51 66 56 / 20 50 50 40
BLAIRSVILLE 62 46 59 50 / 10 70 80 50
CARTERSVILLE 64 51 66 54 / 20 70 80 50
COLUMBUS 67 55 73 58 / 20 30 40 40
GAINESVILLE 64 50 64 53 / 10 50 60 40
MACON 66 54 74 56 / 20 30 20 30
ROME 67 53 69 54 / 20 80 80 50
PEACHTREE CITY 65 52 69 52 / 20 50 50 40
VIDALIA 68 53 73 55 / 10 10 20 20
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
01
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
1248 PM EDT SUN MAR 11 2012
.UPDATE...
INCREASED THE SKY GRIDS IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA TO HIGHLIGHT THE LATEST SATELLITE TREND AND SURFACE OBS.
OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AS MAX TEMPS...POPS AND
SURFACE WINDS ARE ON TRACK.
16
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 818 AM EDT SUN MAR 11 2012/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO DOMINATE
THE AREA TODAY WITH RIDGING BUILDING IN ALOFT AND GENERAL EASTERLY
FLOW AT THE SURFACE. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS ONLY SLIGHTLY WARMER TODAY
THAN YESTERDAY. CUTOFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE NORTHEAST AS CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION SPREAD OVER THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AS SURFACE FLOW SHIFTS TO MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY LATER TODAY IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING FRONT...
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WILL BE ADVECTED INTO THE REGION. THE NAM IS A
LITTLE STRONGER THAN MODEL CONSENSUS WITH THE SURFACE SYSTEM
APPROACHING THE AREA...WITH STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. IT THUS HAS A FASTER PACE OF RETURN MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT. HAVE GENERALLY SIDED WITH THE GFS/ECMWF...BUT IN-HOUSE 4KM
WRF AND HRRR HINT THAT THE NAM MAY BE ONTO SOMETHING AND THAT
ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO THE ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE TODAY. HAVE CONTINUED TREND OF SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS
BEGINNING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST...ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE HIGH.
LOW TEMPS TONIGHT /AS IN SUNDAY NIGHT/ WILL BE MARKEDLY HIGHER
THAN LOW TEMPS AT AFD TIME /SUNDAY MORNING LOWS/ DUE TO THE
MOISTURE INCREASE AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER. HIGH TEMPS MONDAY
SHOULD BEGIN THEIR SLOW BUT STEADY INCREASE THAT WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEK. FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH
AFTERNOON CAPES PROGGED IN THE 200-400 J/KG RANGE MAINLY IN
EXTREME WESTERN ZONES. BEST CAPE REMAINS OVER ALABAMA BUT WITH THE
PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT...CANNOT RULE OUT THUNDER ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON BUT HAVE LIMITED IT TO SLIGHT CHANCE. POPS IN NORTH
GEORGIA REMAIN VERY HIGH BUT EXPECT LOW QPF AMOUNTS.
AS MAIN DYNAMICS LIFT NORTH WITH THE CLOSED LOW...WHICH WILL BE
ABSORBED BY THE LONGWAVE SYSTEM IN CANADA...THE FRONT BEGINS TO
STALL AND DISSIPATE. SOME UNCERTAINTY IN AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AND
LIFT AVAILABLE MONDAY NIGHT SO HAVE LIMITED POPS TO SLIGHT
CHANCE...BUT LATER FORECASTS MAY NEED TO INCREASE POPS ESPECIALLY
NORTH MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
TDP
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT KEEPS THE SURFACE FRONT FROM PROGRESSING
THROUGH THE CWA ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER THE CWA IS LEFT WITH INCREASING
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW. ALTHOUGH THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...THE GFS ESPECIALLY SHOWS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES
ORIGINATING IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM AND MOVING OVER THE RIDGE TO
AFFECT NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA. ECMWF SHOWS THE SHORT WAVES BEING
PUSHED FURTHER TO OUR NORTH. WITH THIS UNCERTAIN PATTERN...LOW POPS
SEEM REASONABLE FOR EACH PERIOD. CAPES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE BETWEEN
500 AND 1000 DURING THE WEEK...SO HAVE LEFT IN A MENTION OF THUNDER
FOR EACH DAY. WITH RIDGING ALOFT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARM
AND SHOULD BE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST AREAS.
41
AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
LOW VFR TO MVFR CIGS MOVING IN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TAF AREAS THIS
MORNING. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTH THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS...WITH SOME BRIEF IMPROVEMENT POSSIBLE WITH THE HEATING OF
THE DAY AT NORTHERN TAFS. FOR SOUTHERN TAFS...EXPECT MVFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AND MVFR CIGS WILL LOWER EVERYWHERE AFTER
00Z WITH -SHRA MOVING IN AS WELL. TIMING OF IFR CIGS STILL UNCERTAIN
WITH SOME GUIDANCE BRINGING IT IN AS EARLY AS 03Z. HAVE CONTINUED
TREND FROM PREVIOUS TAF OF TAKING COMPROMISE AT 09Z. EAST TO
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD 5-10KT WITH GUSTS 15-20KT
FROM APPROXIMATELY 15Z-00Z TODAY.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON WINDS.
MEDIUM ON VSBY.
HIGH ON OCCURRENCE OF MVFR CIGS...MEDIUM ON IFR.
MEDIUM ON TIMING OF MVFR CIGS...LOW ON IFR.
TDP
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 67 48 66 52 / 10 30 40 40
ATLANTA 64 51 66 56 / 20 50 50 40
BLAIRSVILLE 62 46 59 50 / 10 70 80 50
CARTERSVILLE 64 51 66 54 / 20 70 80 50
COLUMBUS 67 55 73 58 / 20 30 40 40
GAINESVILLE 64 50 64 53 / 10 50 60 40
MACON 66 54 74 56 / 20 30 20 30
ROME 67 53 69 54 / 20 80 80 50
PEACHTREE CITY 65 52 69 52 / 20 50 50 40
VIDALIA 68 53 73 55 / 10 10 20 20
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
01
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BOISE ID
307 PM MDT SUN MAR 11 2012
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...COLD FRONT WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDED FROM AROUND DONNELLY TO JORDAN VALLEY AT
230 PM. EXPOSED FLAGSTAFF HILL RAWS GUSTED TO 64 MPH AS A
THUNDERSTORM CROSSED IT. A SPOTTER NEAR INDIAN VALLEY ESTIMATED
WIND GUSTS OF 50-60 MPH AS A SEPARATE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPED
THERE...THEN WEAKENED AS IT MOVED TOWARDS THE LONG VALLEY. GUSTY
SW WINDS TO AROUND 50 MPH WERE REPORTED ACROSS A WIDE AREA WITH
AND BEHIND THE FRONT ESPECIALLY OVER HARNEY AND MALHEUR COUNTIES. GUSTY
WINDS WILL PROGRESS THROUGH SW IDAHO THEN DROP OFF AFTER SUNSET AS
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WITH WEAK GRADIENT CROSSES SE OREGON
AND SW IDAHO OVERNIGHT. SATELLITE GOES LI WERE NEGATIVE IS SPOTS
NORTH THROUGH WEST OF BOISE AS OF 2 PM AND THE RUC MODELED CAPE
EXCEEDED 200 J/KG IN EAST CENTRAL OREGON INCLUDING MUCH OF BAKER
COUNTY AT 18Z/NOON MDT. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL AMPLIFY DRAMATICALLY
OFFSHORE BRINGING A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND GUSTY STRONG SOUTH WINDS
TO OREGON AND CLOUDS WITH LOW POPS AND LESS STRONG EAST TO SE
WINDS OVER IDAHO. THIS NEXT FRONT MOVES THROUGH SW IDAHO MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. TIMING CHANGES ARE POSSIBLE AS THE
SYSTEM IS SO AMPLIFIED.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES 5 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD...
WITH THE BEST CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE MAINLY ABOVE 5000 FEET TUESDAY NIGHT
RISING TO OVER 7000 FEET THURSDAY NIGHT. ON FRIDAY A COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS OUR AREA FOLLOWED BY MUCH COOLER WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND AS A
MAJOR UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE WESTERN U.S. MAX
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL...WITH MINS RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS WILL BE SCATTERED...IN THE FORM OF SNOW OVER
THE MOUNTAINS AND A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN IN THE VALLEYS.
&&
.AVIATION...THE LOWER VALLEYS WILL CONTINUE VFR WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS. IN THE MOUNTAINS WIDESPREAD MVFR/LOCAL IFR SNOW SHOWERS
WILL DECREASE TO SCATTERED AFTER 06Z. EXPECT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO UNTIL ABOUT
03Z AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. MONDAY WILL BE VFR WITH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. SOUTHWEST TO
WEST SURFACE WINDS 15-25 KTS LOCALLY GUSTING OVER 40 KTS WILL
DECREASE AFTER 03Z. WINDS ALOFT WILL BE SOUTHWEST UP TO 30 KTS AT
10K FEET MSL. &&
.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING IDZ011>015-029-033.
OR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT /5 PM PDT/ THIS EVENING ORZ061>064.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
SHORT TERM...VM
LONG TERM....JT/WH
AVIATION.....JT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
327 PM CDT SUN MAR 11 2012
...UPDATED SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM SECTIONS...
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TOMORROW)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT SUN MAR 11 2012
SYNOPSIS:
ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE...A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS CENTERED
OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS DURING THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS. THE RUC MODEL
WAS ANALYZING A -26C COLD CENTER AT 500MB AT THE CENTER OF THE
LOW...AND AROUND -8C AT 700MB. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAD WRAPPED ALL
AROUND THE LOW CENTER WHICH PREVENTED THE EROSION OF LOW STRATUS
CLOUDS...KEEPING SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S
THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS. THE HIGH RESOLUTION SHORT TERM
HRRR AND RUC MODELS DID AN EXCELLENT JOB WITH THE TEMPERATURES
TODAY...WITH THE NAM12 PERFORMING POORLY AS IT WAS WARMING THE
SURFACE TOO MUCH WITH CLOUDS ERODING. AS A RESULT...SURFACE-BASED
INSTABILITY DID NOT DEVELOP...AND A MORE STRATIFIED AREA OF RAIN WAS
THE RESULT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE DDC FORECAST
AREA.
FORECAST:
WILL BE CARRYING LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH DRYING BEGINNING IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW OVER THE WESTERN
COUNTIES EARLY THIS EVENING. CLEARING IS ACTUALLY STARTING TO TAKE
SHAPE OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST COLORADO BEHIND THE LOW...AND THIS WILL
ONLY EXPAND EAST INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS THROUGH THE EVENING. THERE
WILL NOT BE ANY COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THIS LOW WITH TEMPERATURES
ACTUALLY QUITE A BIT WARMER OUTSIDE OF THE LOW AREA (NORTH, WEST,
AND SOUTH). AS FAR AS LOW TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED TONIGHT...HAVE
DROPPED THE LOWS A FEW DEGREES OUT WEST GIVEN THE TIMING OF CLOUD
EROSION AND THE ALREADY COOL START TO THE EVENING. RADIATIONAL
COOLING, EVEN WITH 10 KNOTS OF WIND FROM THE WEST, SHOULD DROP
TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE LOWER 30S PROBABLY BY MIDNIGHT...THEN
BEGIN TO STABILIZE DURING MUCH OF THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS
WINDS AVERAGE 10 TO 12 KNOTS FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST.
TOMORROW WILL BE A VERY PLEASANT DAY AS HEIGHTS RISE WITH THE
DEPARTURE OF THE LOW NORTHEAST. 850-700MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WARMING SUBSTANTIALLY TONIGHT WHICH WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
TEMPERATURES TO RISE RAPIDLY AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW. IN FACT BY
NOON TOMORROW...TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY ALREADY BE WELL INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 60S. HAVE NOT REALLY CHANGED THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AT
ALL REGARDING HIGHS TOMORROW...WITH WIDESPREAD MID TO PERHAPS UPPER
70S EXPECTED. THE LACK OF AN APPRECIABLE PRESSURE GRADIENT/LEESIDE
TROUGH WILL YIELD LIGHT WINDS...LIKELY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS ALL DAY.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT SUN MAR 11 2012
THE THEME FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS WARM TEMPS (WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...20 TO 30 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL) AND SOME SMALL CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE PERIOD.
FOR TUESDAY, THE LEE SURFACE TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN WITH SW 20 TO 30
KT OF WIND DEVELOPING AT 850 HPA AND AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH
SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS EXPECTED AT THE SFC. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A WELL MIXED ATMOSPHERE WITH RESULTANT GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.
MIXING FROM FORECAST SOUNDINGS IS EXPECTED TO ABOUT 700 HPA. MIX
DOWN TEMPERATURES SUPPORT LOW TO MID 80S DEG F ACROSS MUCH OF SW
KANSAS. DEWPOINTS WILL MIX DOWN TO LOW 20S DEG F TO POSSIBLY UPPER
TEENS DEG F WHICH WILL RESULT IN RH`S CRASHING DOWN TO 10 TO 15
PERCENT. AS A RESULT OF THE AFOREMENTIONED CONCERNS, HAVE ISSUED A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH (RFW) FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR FAR WESTERN
KANSAS.
BEYOND TUESDAY, A BROAD UPPER AND LOW LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST ALONG WITH CONTINUED LEE SURFACE TROUGHING WILL RESULT IN
RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. THE DRYLINE SHOULD
BEGIN TO SHARPEN WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER 50S DEG F DEWPOINTS SOUTH OF
THE DRYLINE LOCATED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL/SE KANSAS. THE INCREASING
DEWPOINTS WILL LEAD TO MILD LOWS TOWARDS KP28 THROUGH THE REST OF
THE PD.
THE DRYLINE WILL EVENTUALLY MIX WESTWARD AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
MORE MERIDIONAL. THE EXACT DRYLINE POSITION FOR ANY GIVEN DAY IS
UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT, HOWEVER...THE GENERAL TREND IN THE MODELS
IS TO MIX THE DRYLINE WESTWARD THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
THE DRYLINE IN COMBINATION WITH WEAK IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW
ALOFT COULD LEAD TO SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION BEGINNING THURSDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DID NOT DEVIATE FROM THE ALLBLEND
APPROACH AS CONFIDENCE IN STORM INITIATION IS LOW AT THIS POINT. THE
BEST LOCATION FOR SEEING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE BETTER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE/HIGHER CAPE
VALUES IS EXPECTED. CAPPING COULD BE A CONCERN, PARTICULARLY IF YOU
BUY THE WARMER AND DRIER ECMWF.
LOOKING AT WEEK TWO, THE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH TIMING OF
THE EJECTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. BY MARCH 19TH, UL FLOW
BECOMES STRONGER AND MORE SOUTHERLY. CAPE VALUES FROM THE ECMWF SHOW
AROUND 2000 J/KG AND 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR INCREASES TO AROUND 50 KT. AT
SOME POINT SEVERE WEATHER COULD BE A SIGNIFICANT CONCERN...
PARTICULARLY AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE FINALLY EJECTS OUT ACROSS THE
PLAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT SUN MAR 11 2012
FLIGHT CATEGORY WAS IMPROVING TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE IFR THRESHOLD AS
CEILING WAS AVERAGING 1000 TO 1500 ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS
INCLUDING GCK, DDC, AND HYS TERMINALS. THE FLIGHT CATEGORY IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN MVFR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AS
CEILING STABILIZES AROUND 1500 TO 2000 FEET WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW MOVING OVERHEAD. SOME SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL REDEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND HAVE GONE WITH
VCSH IN THE GCK, DDC, HYS TAFS FROM ROUGHLY 20Z TO 00Z. AFTER
00Z ONCE THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST...DRY ADVECTION IS EXPECTED WITH
WINDS BECOMING MORE WESTERLY. AS A RESULT...FLIGHT CATEGORY IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME VFR THIS EVENING WITH WEST-SOUTHWEST WIND
AVERAGING 8 TO 12 KNOTS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT SUN MAR 11 2012
RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA MAY BE MET TUESDAY BEHIND THE SURFACE DRYLINE
ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM DIGHTON TO GARDEN CITY TO LIBERAL.
MID-LEVEL MOMENTUM IS EXPECTED TO EASILY MIX TO THE SURFACE DURING
THE AFTERNOON WITH WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25-30 KTS FOR A FEW
HOURS, ALONG WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BETWEEN 10 AND 15
PERCENT.
FIRE WEATHER MAY ALSO BE A CONCERN JUST ABOUT EVERY DAY IN FAR
SOUTHWEST KANSAS BEHIND THE DRYLINE FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, BUT PARTICULARLY FROM FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY AS SURFACE
PRESSURES FALL IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AND SURFACE WINDS
INCREASE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 34 76 40 83 / 30 0 0 0
GCK 31 77 37 82 / 20 0 0 0
EHA 35 75 35 82 / 10 0 0 0
LBL 33 76 38 81 / 20 0 0 0
HYS 36 77 41 82 / 30 0 0 0
P28 38 78 43 81 / 30 0 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR KSZ043-044-061>063-074>077-084>087.
&&
$$
UPDATE...UMSCHEID
SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM....SUGDEN
AVIATION...UMSCHEID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON MS
319 PM CDT SUN MAR 11 2012
.SHORT TERM...
MAIN FOCUS IN SHORT TERM IS POTENTIAL FOR STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT AND MONDAY AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN WESTERN AREAS TONIGHT.
FIRST OFF FOR TONIGHT...CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONVECTIVE BAND RUNNING
FROM KTXK SSW TO NEAR KGLS. MOST INTENSE BAND IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A
LARGE PRECIP SHIELD WHICH IS GENERALLY NOT PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR
SEVERE WX. HOWEVER...AREAS WITHIN THE BAND HAVE EXHIBITED BOW/LEWP
TYPE STRUCTURES...PARTICULARLY FEATURE OVER EC TX NE OF KLFK WHICH
HAS SHOWN PERSISTENT ROTATION/MARC. BASED ON SETUP OF STRENGTHENING
WIND FIELDS AHEAD OF EJECTING UPPER LOW AND INCREASING SFC BASED
INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON OVER LA...EXPECT ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO
SHOW BOW/LEWP CHARACTERSTICS WITH CORRESPONDING RISK OF SPORADIC
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO. BEST RISK WILL LIKELY BE
OVER NE LA PARISHES WHICH SHOULD HAVE BEST OVERLAY BETWEEN STRONGEST
SBCAPE...CURRENTLY 1000-1500 J/KG S OF HWY 84...AND MAX IN WIND SHEAR
PULLING THROUGH AR. EXTRAPOLATION AND HRRR CONTINUE TO SHOW ACTIVITY
REACHING FAR WRN AREAS 22Z-00Z. THREAT OF SEVERE WX SHOULD DIMINISH
AFTER 03Z AS UPPER LOW PULLS AWAY AND FORCING DIMINISHES.
AS FAR AS HEAVY RAINFALL...AS MENTIONED IN HPC QPF DISCUSSION EXPECT
THIS CONVECTION TO BE EFFICIENT AT PRODUCING RAINFALL GIVEN TALL
CAPES AND PW VALUES AROUND 200 PCT OF NORMAL. HIGH RES MODELS
GENERALLY SHOW WIDESPREAD 0.5 TO 1 INCH TOTALS OVERNIGHT GENERALLY NW
OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE...WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF 1-3"...WHICH SEEMS
REASONABLE. HAVE SOME CONCERN ABOUT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOMEWHERE IN
THE WESTERN PART OF THE AREA GETTING SOME LOCALIZED EVEN HEAVIER
TOTALS GIVEN THAT THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE PULLING AWAY AND MCS IS
LIKELY TO SLOW DOWN OR EVEN STALL. THIS IS HINTED AT IN SOME OF THE
MODEL GUIDANCE WITH CORFIDI VECTORS GET VERY SMALL...AND HIGH RES NMM
MODEL SHOWS AREA OF 5+ INCHES OF RAIN IN PARTS OF THE LOWER DELTA.
NOT READY TO JUMP ON THOSE KIND OF LOCALIZED AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY AS
850 MB FLOW WILL BE WEAKENING AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE VALUES ARE NOT
EXTREME. HOWEVER THIS WILL BE SOMETHING LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO
KEEP AN EYE ON.
AS FAR AS MONDAY...CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING IN A BAND
SOMEWHERE ALONG THE NATCHEZ TRACE IN THE MORNING. AS DAYTIME HEATING
CAUSES DESTABILIZATION...EXPECT ACTIVITY TO GRADUALLY INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY INTO THE ATMOSPHERE. WHILE MAIN 500 MB TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY...AREA WILL REMAIN IN RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF 250 MB JET...AND INCREASE IN MID LEVEL FLOW AND SUBTLE
HEIGHT FALLS INDICATE A WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY MOVE THROUGH TO HELP
CONVECTION REENERGIZE IN THE AFTERNOON. IF ROBUST CONVECTION CAN GET
GOING...EXPECT AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SEVERE RISK GIVEN MLCAPE VALUES
AROUND 2000 J/KG AND GOOD DCAPE VALUES. COULD SEE SOME GOOD HAIL
GIVEN COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND LARGE CAPE VALUES ABOVE FREEZING
LEVEL. WOULD EXPECT BEST CONVECTIVE RISK TO BE ALONG/SE OF TRACE
WHERE BEST UPPER SUPPORT AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION SHOULD EXIST.
CONVECTION SHOULD DECREASE MONDAY NIGHT WITH JUST SOME WIDELY
SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION EXPECTED TUESDAY. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
FOG POTENTIAL MONDAY NIGHT IF SFC FLOW CAN FULLY DECOUPLE. MAV MOS IS
HINTING AT VERY LOW CIG/VSBYS BUT DID NOT WANT TO JUMP ON THAT YET
GIVEN DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT FORECAST BY MODELS.
.LONG TERM...
PATTERN OVER AREA FOR LATTER PART OF THE WEEK WILL BE MORE LIKE LATE
SPRING WITH UPPER RIDGING PROVIDING UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS.
MAIN PRECIP THREAT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH ISOLATED DIURNAL
CONVECTION. ONE FLY IN THE OINTMENT COULD COME AROUND MIDWEEK WHEN
GFS/EC IMPLY THAT OLD BOUNDARY COULD GET REENERGIZED INTO SUPPORTING
AN MCS ALONG IT NW OF US WHICH WOULD ROLL ESE IN GRADIENT OF THETA-E.
THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED BUT FOR NOW CURRENT FORECAST HANDLES
OVERALL SITUATION QUITE WELL SO NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO FORECAST
BEYOND TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...
GUSTY SE SFC WINDS WILL PERSIST THRU THE AFTN AND INTO THIS EVENING
BEFORE THE GUSTS TAPER OFF NEAR/AFTER 01Z...WITH SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY
WINDS NEAR 10KTS XPCTD THRU THE NIGHT. CIG WILL REMAIN MVFR FOR A
GOOD PORTION OF THE ARKLAMISS TODAY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS PULLED
NORTH IN WAKE OF A WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH. A TREND TOWARD IFR CIG
WILL BEGIN AFTER 03Z TONIGHT HOWEVER SFC VSBYS WILL REMAIN VFR THRU
THE NIGHT THANKS TO THE WINDS. +SHRA/TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
BOUNDARY OVER NE TX WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT NE LA/SE AR AND THE DELTA
REGION OF MS AROUND 00Z THIS EVENING. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD
CONTAIN SEVERE TSRA HOWEVER THIS SHOULD COME TO AN END AFTER 06Z.
LINGERING SHRA WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT PRIMARILY N OF I-20. /BK/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 63 79 60 79 / 77 46 25 22
MERIDIAN 61 81 59 80 / 54 60 39 31
VICKSBURG 64 79 59 79 / 84 39 14 15
HATTIESBURG 64 82 62 82 / 27 53 33 37
NATCHEZ 62 78 60 78 / 74 33 15 16
GREENVILLE 61 79 59 80 / 99 39 10 11
GREENWOOD 62 79 59 80 / 92 54 19 14
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
AEG/BK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON MS
1255 PM CDT SUN MAR 11 2012
.UPDATE...
ADJUSTED GRIDS AND RAN ZONE UPDATE TO REDUCE POPS MOST AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN DECREASING IN COVERAGE OVER
THE LAST 2 HOURS...AND WHILE SOME SCATTERED SHRA CAN STILL BE
EXPECTED ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS...COVERAGE DOES
NOT APPEAR TO WARRANT POPS AS HIGH AS WHAT WE HAD GOING. RADAR
TRENDS AND LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT BAND OF
STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS MOVING INTO OUR WESTERN AREAS IN THE
22Z TO 00Z TIMEFRAME. 15Z HRRR AND 12Z HIGHRES NMM-WRF IN PARTICULAR
ARE RELATIVELY AGGRESSIVE IN SHOWING WELL DEFINED BOWING SEGMENTS
AND SOLID UPDRAFT HELICITY VALUES AS ACTIVITY MOVES INTO NE LA AND
SE AR. CURRENT HWO AND GRAPHICASTS SEEM TO HANDLE THIS SCENARIO WELL.
&&
.AVIATION...
GUSTY SE SFC WINDS WILL PERSIST THRU THE AFTN AND INTO THIS EVENING
BEFORE THE GUSTS TAPER OFF NEAR/AFTER 01Z...WITH SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY
WINDS NEAR 10KTS XPCTD THRU THE NIGHT. CIG WILL REMAIN MVFR FOR A
GOOD PORTION OF THE ARKLAMISS TODAY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS PULLED
NORTH IN WAKE OF A WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH. A TREND TOWARD IFR CIG
WILL BEGIN AFTER 03Z TONIGHT HOWEVER SFC VSBYS WILL REMAIN VFR THRU
THE NIGHT THANKS TO THE WINDS. +SHRA/TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
BOUNDARY OVER NE TX WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT NE LA/SE AR AND THE DELTA
REGION OF MS AROUND 00Z THIS EVENING. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD
CONTAIN SEVERE TSRA HOWEVER THIS SHOULD COME TO AN END AFTER 06Z.
LINGERING SHRA WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT PRIMARILY N OF I-20. /BK/
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
AG/BK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
310 PM CDT SUN MAR 11 2012
.DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS ERN COLO/WRN KS WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST
THRU ERN NEB OVERNIGHT. CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND THE RUC SUGGEST
ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS EVENING AS FAR WEST AS SWRN NEB WHICH THEN
SPREAD NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND EXIT THE FCST AREA BY ROUGHLY 12Z
MONDAY.
ANOTHER BIG FIRE DAY IS POSSIBLE MONDAY. BLENDED BIAS CORRECTED
MET MAV DEW PT DATA POINTS TOWARD DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER TEENS.
MEANWHILE THE STRONGER MAV WINDS AND ASSOCIATED DEEPER MIXING
PRODUCES STRONGER WINDS. SO RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS A LARGE PART OF THE FCST AREA. GREATER FIRE DANGER COULD
DEVELOP TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE ACROSS ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN
DEEPENS TO AROUND 985 MB. A DRY LINE IS FCST TO DEVELOP AND PUSH
EAST TO AROUND HIGHWAY 183 WITH WINDS GUSTING TO 25 TO 30KTS. ON
WEDNESDAY CANADIAN LOW PRESSURE WILL FORCE THE DRY LINE FARTHER
EAST TO NEAR OMAHA WHICH COULD ALSO PRODUCE CRITICAL FIRE DANGER.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO SOAR IN ALL MODEL SOLNS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THE CANADIAN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL TRACK FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO
PREVENT ANY KIND OF STRONG COLD FRONTS AND COOLER TEMPS FROM
MOVING THROUGH THE FCST AREA BUT IT APPEARS THE SYSTEMS WILL BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT THE DRY LINE FROM BACKING UP VERY FAR
WEST. THIS IS VERY UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT AS WE HAVE YET TO SEE
THIS TYPE OF PATTERN AND IN WET YEARS THE DRY LINE TENDS TO HANG
OUT AROUND HIGHWAY 61.
THE GFS CONTINUES TO INDICATE SOME CIRRUS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
BUT THIS SHOULD BE A FAIRLY THIN VEIL AND HAVE ONLY MINOR IMPACT ON
MAX TEMPS.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE ECM CONTINUES TO KEEP A DEVELOPING
LONG WAVE TROF WEST OF THE FCST AREA. WITH NO SIGNIFICANT NRN
STREAM LEAD SHORT WAVE...THE FCST AREA SHOULD REMAIN IN THE WARM
SECTOR. A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS LIFT OUT OF THE TROF AND
THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS. EACH WILL SUBSEQUENTLY DRAW
HIGH PRESSURE AND COOLER TEMPS CLOSER TO THE FCST AREA. THE
EARLIEST WE MIGHT SEE COOLING IS NEXT SUNDAY WHEN WINDS MAY BACK
AROUND TO THE EAST IN RESPONSE TO DEEP LOW PRESSURE ACROSS ERN WY.
THE GFS IS FASTER BRINGING THE LONG WAVE TROF EAST QUICKER. THE
FCST LEANS TOWARD THE SLOWER ECM AND WARMER TEMPS.
THERE IS SOME SPREAD IN THE POSITION OF A VERY STRONG DRY LINE FCST
TO DEVELOP ACROSS CNTL NEB IN THE EXTENDED FCST. ALL SOLNS INDICATE
DEW POINTS IN THE 50S ACROSS ERN NEB WITH 20S OVER WRN NEB. THESE
DIFFERENCES APPEAR TO BE RELATED TO THE TIMING...LOCATION AND
INTENSITY OF THE DISTURBANCES LIFTING OUT OF THE LONG WAVE TROF.
THE MODELS APPEAR TO BE DEVELOPING A BROAD AREA OF NOCTURNAL
STRATUS IN THE DEEPER MOISTURE EAST OF THE DRY LINE SO THE POSITION OF THE
DRY LINE WILL BE CLOSELY WATCHED. LATER MODEL SOLNS MAY SHOW THE
DRY LINE BACKING UP WESTWARD TOWARD A MORE CLIMATOLOGICAL
LOCATION.
&&
.AVIATION...
MVFR CEILINGS TO CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON TODAY...THEN EXPECTING GRADUAL CLEARING AS AN
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM BEGINS TO PUSH EAST OF THE REGION. EXPECT
CEILINGS TO LIFT ABOVE THE MVFR FLIGHT CATEGORY SOMETIME AROUND 00Z
FOR THE KLBF FLIGHT TERMINAL. FURTHER NORTH AT KONL AND KVTN SKIES
HAVE REMAINED MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...WITH THE CLOUD
BANK STILL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE RESPECTIVE TERMINALS. HOWEVER
STILL POSSIBLE THAT STRAY CLOUDINESS MAY INVADE THESE NORTHERN
TERMINALS...BUT UNLIKELY AT THIS POINT IN TIME. OTHERWISE GUSTY
WINDS /19020G27KT/ TO CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AS INDICATED BY MODEL GUIDANCE...BUT THEN WEAKEN OVERNIGHT
AND VEER TO THE NORTHWEST BY EARLY MORNING TOMORROW. FOR
KLBF...SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS TO 20KTS ARE A POSSIBILITY LATE
TODAY...BUT AS WITH THE CASE OF KVTN...EXPECT THE WINDS TO REMAIN
AOB 10KTS OVERNIGHT AND VEER TO THE WEST NORTHWEST.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR FIRE ZONES
204...206...209...210 AND 219 MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF
CURED FUELS...WEST NORTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPING WIND...AND ABNORMALLY
WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CREATE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR EXTREME FIRE
GROWTH. ONE CAVEAT HOWEVER...WIND SPEEDS MAY BE MARGINAL /BELOW RFW
CRITERIA/ AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. BUT EMPLOYING
THE USE MAV GUIDANCE WOULD INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS OF 25
MPH FOR A THREE TO FOUR HOUR PERIOD EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. BUFR
SOUNDINGS AND OTHER GUIDANCE INDICATE A WEAKER WIND PROFILE...WITH
THE NAM GOING AS FAR AS TO SUGGEST WIND SPEEDS OF LESS THAN 20 KTS
AT 700MB OVER MUCH OF THE CWA BY 21Z CONSIDERING THAT THE MODELS
INDICATE A RELAXING PRESSURE GRADIENT...PEAK WIND SPEEDS MAY NOT
CORRESPOND WITH PEAK HEATING/MINIMUM RH. HOWEVER...THE MODELS
GENERALLY HAVE STRUGGLED RECENTLY AND UNDERESTIMATED NOT ONLY WIND
SPEEDS BUT ALSO TEMPERATURES/RH VALUES DURING PEAK HEATING...FELT
THAT CONFIDENCE WAS HIGH ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST A FIRE WEATHER WATCH AT
THIS TIME. WILL INCLUDE MOST OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
IN THIS WATCH THAT WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM 17Z MONDAY UNTIL 01Z
TUESDAY.
FIRE HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK AS
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. TEMPERATURES
BEYOND MONDAY SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS THROUGH THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK. IN FACT...TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MAY
APPROACH 80 DEGREES ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 80
CORRIDOR...AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN SAND HILLS. WITH
CURED FUELS IN PLACE...THESE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL COMBINE
WITH MEAGER ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND AT TIMES GUSTY WIND SPEEDS TO
CREATE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR. ALL FIRE
INTERESTS SHOULD MONITOR THIS SITUATION CLOSELY UNTIL APPRECIABLE
MOISTURE FALLS OR GREEN UP OCCURS.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR NEZ204-206-209-210-219.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/EXTENDED...CDC
AVIATION...JACOBS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
255 PM CDT SUN MAR 11 2012
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
255 PM CDT SUN MAR 11 2012
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON PRECIPITATION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AS
WELL AS THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT.
CURRENTLY AS OF 19Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED AN UPPER TROUGH FROM THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST...THEN ZONAL FLOW FROM MANITOBA EAST INTO QUEBEC. IN THE
SOUTHERN STREAM...AN UPPER LOW WAS OVER THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE WITH
RIDGING BUILDING DOWNSTREAM INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
REGION. AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW...SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
EXTENDED FROM FAR SOUTHWEST IOWA INTO KANSAS...MISSOURI AND SOUTH TO
THE GULF COAST. THE PRECIPITATION WAS BEING FORCED FROM A NUMBER OF
FACTORS: DPVA AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW THE BIG ONE...A STREAM OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT NOTED BY 30-40 KT 925-850MB WINDS ON
PROFILER DATA...INSTABILITY PRODUCED BY DAYTIME HEATING ACTING WITH
THE UPPER LOW AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE 40S AND 50S.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THE MOISTURE STREAM ARE 1-1.5 INCHES OR
200-270 PERCENT OF NORMAL PER 12Z RAOBS. OVER THE FORECAST
AREA...DRY AIR ON THE 12Z MPX AND DVN SOUNDINGS HAVE KEPT ANY CLOUD
COVERAGE AHEAD OF THE PRECIPITATION LIMITED TO CIRRUS AND MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS THUS FAR...AND THESE ARE JUST COMING INTO LOCATIONS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-90. WITH PLENTY OF SUN...850MB TEMPS BETWEEN 8-10C PER
12Z RAOB ANALYSIS AND A RELATIVELY BREEZY SOUTH WIND...TEMPERATURES
HAVE CLIMBED AGAIN INTO THE 60S TODAY.
TONIGHT AND MONDAY...UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS FORECAST
TO LIFT NORTHEAST...CROSSING THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER 12Z MONDAY...
THEN REACH LAKE SUPERIOR BY 00Z TUESDAY. THIS EJECTION IS IN
RESPONSE TO THE TROUGHING CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
LIFTING INTO MANITOBA. PRETTY IMPRESSIVE 500MB HEIGHT FALLS PROGGED
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...ANYWHERE BETWEEN 150 AND 200 METERS.
SO NEEDLESS TO SAY THE DYNAMIC FORCING IS REALLY STRONG. A STRONG
SURGE OF MOISTURE COMES UP AHEAD OF THE LOW...SEEN IN PRECIPITABLE
WATER PROGS OF AROUND 1 INCH OR 300 PERCENT OF NORMAL. THEREFORE...
THE DYNAMICS SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM BRINGING PRECIPITATION TO THE
AREA. DESPITE THE ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE...NOT ANTICIPATING THIS TO
BE A HEAVY QPF EVENT FOR A NUMBER OF REASONS: THE HIGH AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE DOES NOT STICK AROUND LONG DUE TO THE UPPER LOW MOVING
QUICKLY...MUCAPE FROM THE NAM FOR MUCH OF THIS TIME PERIOD STAYS
BELOW 200 J/KG LIMITING THUNDERSTORMS TO ISOLATED AT BEST...NO UPPER
JET SUPPORT AND BEST 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT AIMED EAST OF HERE.
WHAT INSTABILITY DOES EXIST IS OVER WISCONSIN DURING THE DAY
MONDAY...THUS HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER THEN. REGARDING
PRECIPITATION TRENDS IN THE FORECAST...SHOULD SEE SHOWERS MOVE IN
THIS EVENING OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...THEN BECOME MORE
SCATTERED ON MONDAY AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS AWAY BUT ITS COLD POOL
ALOFT LINGERS. TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN MILD TONIGHT WITH
CLOUDS AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS MOVING IN. LITTLE CHANGE REQUIRED FOR
LOWS. HIGHS ON MONDAY ARE TRICKY GIVEN THAT ONLY SUN POTENTIAL WOULD
OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON AND SOUTH OF I-90. FOR NOW STUCK WITH A BLEND
OF GUIDANCE...BUT IF CLOUDS STAY AROUND LONGER THAN FORECAST...HIGHS
MAY NEED TO BE COOLED.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE
FURTHER AWAY FROM THE REGION WHILE A FEW NEW TROUGHS DROP DOWN INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND EJECT UP INTO CENTRAL CANADA. THE RESPONSE
OF ALL OF THIS IS TO BUILD RIDGING OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY REGION...SENDING A SURGE OF WARMER AIR INTO THE FORECAST
AREA. 850MB TEMPS WHICH START OFF AT 4-8C AT 12Z TUESDAY ARE
FORECAST TO CLIMB TO 8-12C BY 00Z WEDNESDAY AND TO 12-14C FOR THE
WHOLE DAYTIME HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. THERE ARE EVEN SOME HINTS OF 16C
850MB TEMPS APPROACHING THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...AHEAD OF A DYING SURFACE COLD FRONT COMING INTO
MINNESOTA. THESE 850MB READINGS ARE 2-2.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL...FAVORING TEMPERATURES APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING RECORD HIGHS
GIVEN TOO THAT PLENTY OF SUN SHOULD OCCUR BOTH DAYS. LEANED TOWARDS
THE HIGH END OF ALL GUIDANCE AS A RESULT FOR HIGHS. SOME
PRECIPITATION NOTES. THE 11.12Z NAM SHOWS ELEVATED CONVECTION
BETWEEN 09-15Z WEDNESDAY OVER EASTERN IOWA AND FAR SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN. THIS PRECIPITATION FORMS DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A WEAK
SHORTWAVE...A WARM FRONT AND ELEVATED CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1000-1500
J/KG. HOWEVER...THE 850MB DEWPOINT HELPING TO PRODUCE THIS CAPE IS
AROUND 10C...OR 8C HIGHER THAN THE ECMWF. THE GFS IS ALSO SLIGHTLY
LOWER. THEREFORE AM DISCOUNTING THE NAM AT THE PRESENT TIME. ON
WEDNESDAY...THE GFS SEEMS TO HAVE TOO MUCH MOISTURE AT AND BELOW
900MB...A KNOWN PROBLEM SEEN IN SOME RECENT WARM EVENTS...AND THUS
STRATUS AND DRIZZLE OUT. DISCOUNTING THIS SCENARIO AS WELL SINCE IT
DOES NOT AGREE WITH THE ECMWF/NAM/CANADIAN. LASTLY...ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THE NAM CONVECTS OVER EASTERN IOWA AND SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN...THOUGH THERE IS NO SURFACE TRIGGER. IN ADDITION...THE
MODEL BRINGS SURFACE DEWPOINTS INTO THE 60S WHICH SEEMS WAY TOO
HIGH. AS SUCH...HAVE FOLLOWED THE DRY ECMWF/CANADIAN SCENARIO.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
255 PM CDT SUN MAR 11 2012
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT EXISTS THAT THE FLOW OF TROUGHS COMING INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST THEN LIFTING INTO NORTH CENTRAL CANADA PERSISTS
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THEN ON FRIDAY AND HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND...ALL MODELS SHOW A REALLY DEEP TROUGH FORMING ALONG THE
WEST COAST OF THE U.S. THE 11.12Z GFS IS BY FAR THE MOST PROGRESSIVE
WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE COMING OUT OF THIS TROUGH...RESULTING IN A
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AT 12Z SUNDAY. THE 11.00Z/12Z ECMWF
AND 11.12Z CANADIAN KEEPS THIS SHORTWAVE WRAPPED IN THE TROUGH WHICH
SEEMS MORE REASONABLE. BASICALLY ALL THIS MEANS IS THAT THE FORECAST
AREA STAYS UNDER UPPER RIDGING AND IN THE WARM SECTOR. THERE IS ONE
POTENTIAL CAVEAT TO THE WARM SECTOR WHICH IS THE COLD FRONT FROM
WEDNESDAY OVER MINNESOTA. MODELS PROG THIS FRONT TO DIE AS IT COMES
INTO THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...WHILE BECOMING
ORIENTED MORE WEST-EAST WITH THE UPPER FLOW. AT THIS TIME HAVE
MAINTAINED A CONSENSUS 20 PERCENT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ON THUS
FRONT OVER SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN IN NORTHEAST
IOWA ON THURSDAY. STILL...THINKING MUCH OF THIS PERIOD WILL END UP
DRY. AFTER THIS...IT BECOMES A LITTLE MORE DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT
WHEN PRECIPITATION OCCURS. AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW AMPLIFIES...THERE
ARE INDICATIONS OF A FEW SHORTWAVES RIDING THROUGH DURING THE FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT TIME PERIOD. DEPENDING ON THE MODEL THE
TIMING VARIES. FOR NOW HAVE STAYED WITH A CONSENSUS APPROACH WHICH
RESULTS IN MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA HAVING 20-40 PERCENT CHANCES.
STRONGER UPPER RIDGING ON SUNDAY SHOULD PREVENT ANY PRECIPITATION.
THE MAIN STORY CONTINUES TO BE THE WARMTH. 850MB TEMPS ON AVERAGE
HOLD BETWEEN 10-14C...OR 2 TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.
THIS SHOULD HELP TO KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE 70S AND
NEAR OR ABOVE RECORDS. PERHAPS THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS MIGHT BE
ON THURSDAY OVER NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THAT
DYING COLD FRONT. ALSO OF NOTE IS THAT LOW TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO
BE VERY WARM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR TOO...AIDED BY DEWPOINTS HOLDING
MAINLY IN THE 50S. IN FACT...LOWS COULD BE 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL HIGHS.
&&
.AVIATION...THROUGH 18Z MONDAY
1234 PM CDT SUN MAR 11 2012
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO
LIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND SPREAD CLOUDS INTO
THE AREA AFTER 00Z MONDAY. THE LATEST 11.12Z NAM AND RUC BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SHOW THE ATMOSPHERE COLUMN SATURATING THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...AS LIFT IN ASSOCIATION WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE
RST AND LSE TAF SITES. BOTH THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS INDICATE
CEILINGS LOWERING INTO THE LIFR/IFR AT BOTH THE TAF SITES AFTER 03Z
MONDAY AND CONTINUE THESE CONDITIONS INTO MONDAY MORNING. NEXT
CONCERN IS THE 11.12Z NAM IS INDICATING WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY OF
100 TO 300 J/KG MOST UNSTABLE CAPE AT THE 0-6KM LAYER MAINLY ALONG
AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AFTER 15Z MONDAY. WITH
THIS...THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AFTER 12Z MONDAY. FOR NOW...WILL NOT
MENTION ANY THUNDERSTORM AT BOTH TAF SITES...DUE TO CONFIDENCE OF A
THUNDERSTORM OCCURRING AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION IS LOW.
&&
.CLIMATE...
255 PM CDT SUN MAR 11 2012
RECORD HIGHS HAVE BEEN BROKEN AT KLSE AND KRST...JUST BARELY WITH
ONLY BEING 1 DEGREE ABOVE THEM...BUT RECORDS NONETHELESS. POTENTIAL
STILL EXISTS FOR A DEGREE OR TWO RISE SO RECORD EVENT REPORTS WILL
BE HELD UNTIL DAYTIME HEATING ENDS AROUND 5 PM.
BEING NEAR OR AT RECORDS FOR HIGHS WILL BE THE NORM HERE STARTING
TUESDAY AND LASTING PERHAPS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN ANOMALOUS WARM
PATTERN IS SETTING UP OVER THE FORECAST AREA. LOW TEMPERATURES COULD
EVEN BE HIGH ENOUGH THAT WE SET NEW RECORD HIGH MINIMUMS. SEE OUR
WEBSITE FOR DETAILS ON RECORD HIGHS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...THROUGH MONDAY
255 PM CDT SUN MAR 11 2012
NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. SNOWPACK
IN TAYLOR COUNTY IS IN FULL MELT MODE NOW / PER NOHRSC SNOW PACK
TEMPERATURE ANALYSIS / AND WILL CONTINUE TO MELT DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE STILL IN THE 0.35 TO
0.60 INCH RANGE WHICH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME RISES ALONG THE
BLACK AND TREMPEALEAU RIVERS...BUT STILL NOT UP TO FLOOD STAGE.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
255 PM CDT SUN MAR 11 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...DTJ
CLIMATE...AJ
HYDROLOGY...AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1234 PM CDT SUN MAR 11 2012
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
317 AM CDT SUN MAR 11 2012
THE MAIN STORIES IN THE SHORT TERM ARE WITH THE RAIN CHANCES
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY FOLLOWED BY THE QUICK RETURN OF WARM AIR TO
THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
CLEAR SKIES WERE IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE REGION WITH BROAD RIDGING
ALOFT STRETCHING ACROSS MUCH OF THE US WITH A CUT OFF LOW STARTING
TO PROGRESS EASTWARD OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. AT THE
SURFACE...A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE STRETCHES ALONG THE LEE
OF THE ROCKIES WHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES
HAS RELAXED AND HAS ALLOWED FOR WIND SPEEDS TO WEAKEN OVERNIGHT
THOUGH STILL REMAIN GUSTY AT TIMES TO BETWEEN 20 TO 25KTS IN
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA.
THE INITIAL FOCUS IS ON THE CUTOFF LOW TO THE SOUTH AND WHEN ITS
IMPACTS WILL REACH THE REGION. UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS ALREADY
ON THE DOOR STEP OF SOUTHWEST IOWA WITH THESE CLOUDS EXPECTED TO
LIFT INTO THE REGION LATER THIS MORNING AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO
PROPAGATE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. THESE UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL THICKEN THROUGH THE DAY...BUT THE DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL NOT GET IN UNTIL TONIGHT AS THE BETTER FORCING COMES IN JUST
AHEAD OF THE LOW. EVERYTHING COMES TOGETHER TONIGHT AS THE LOW
GETS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH THE COMBINATION OF STRONG LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND MID LEVEL QG FORCING COMING IN AT THE
SAME TIME FROM THE SOUTH. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A BAND OF RAIN
LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT BEFORE REACHING
NORTHERN WISCONSIN MONDAY MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL THEN
PERSIST INTO MONDAY AS THE CORE OF THE LOW MOVES THROUGH WITH
LAPSE RATES STEEPENING THROUGH THE LOW TO MID LEVELS. THESE
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES MAY LEAD TO SOME VERY SKINNY CAPE
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA ON
MONDAY...MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI...PARTICULARLY
IF ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ALLOW FOR SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO
WARM. THE 11.00Z NAM AND GFS BOTH SHOW THIS WITH THEIR FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...SO HAVE ADDED AN ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION TO THE
FORECAST FOR MONDAY.
AFTER THIS SYSTEM EXITS THE REGION BY MONDAY EVENING...A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH ON TUESDAY WITH WARMER AIR COMING
BACK INTO THE REGION AS THIS RIDGE COMES IN. 850MB TEMPERATURE
ANOMALIES SHOW STANDARD DEVIATIONS OF +1 TO +2 ABOVE THE NORM
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WHICH WOULD MEAN LEANING CLOSER TOWARD
NEAR RECORD HIGHS THAN AWAY FROM THEM. THUS...HAVE KEPT THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S GOING FOR THESE DAYS. THE COLD FRONT THAT HAD
PREVIOUSLY BEEN PROGGED TO COME THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY
NOW APPEARS TO HANG UP TO THE WEST WITH NOT MUCH OF A CHANCE FOR
RAIN SHOWERS TO FORM ALONG IT.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
317 AM CDT SUN MAR 11 2012
NO END IN SIGHT FOR THE WARM TREND WITH IT EXPECTED TO GO THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
PERSISTS. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND
CLOSE TO RECORD BREAKING THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME. RAIN CHANCES
ARE A LITTLE TOUGHER TO PIN DOWN WITHOUT ANY SYSTEMS COMING
THROUGH TO FOCUS THE LIFT...THOUGH THE 11.00Z GFS SUGGESTS THAT
THE 925-850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE ANGLED NORTHWARD FROM THE
GULF TOWARD THE REGION AND MAY BE ENOUGH TO POP OFF SOME SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. DETAILS WILL HAVE TO BE WORKED OUT AS WE GET
CLOSER TO THIS TIME FRAME BUT THERE IS AT LEAST ENOUGH OF A CHANCE
TO WARRANT SOME SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...THROUGH 18Z MONDAY
1234 PM CDT SUN MAR 11 2012
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO
LIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND SPREAD CLOUDS INTO
THE AREA AFTER 00Z MONDAY. THE LATEST 11.12Z NAM AND RUC BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SHOW THE ATMOSPHERE COLUMN SATURATING THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...AS LIFT IN ASSOCIATION WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE
RST AND LSE TAF SITES. BOTH THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS INDICATE
CEILINGS LOWERING INTO THE LIFR/IFR AT BOTH THE TAF SITES AFTER 03Z
MONDAY AND CONTINUE THESE CONDITIONS INTO MONDAY MORNING. NEXT
CONCERN IS THE 11.12Z NAM IS INDICATING WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY OF
100 TO 300 J/KG MOST UNSTABLE CAPE AT THE 0-6KM LAYER MAINLY ALONG
AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AFTER 15Z MONDAY. WITH
THIS...THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AFTER 12Z MONDAY. FOR NOW...WILL NOT
MENTION ANY THUNDERSTORM AT BOTH TAF SITES...DUE TO CONFIDENCE OF A
THUNDERSTORM OCCURRING AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION IS LOW.
&&
.CLIMATE...TODAY
317 AM CDT SUN MAR 11 2012
THE COMBINATION OF ABUNDANT SUNSHINE THIS MORNING...SOUTH WINDS IN
THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE...AND AN UNUSUALLY WARM START TO THE DAY
/TEMPERATURES ARE STILL RANGING FROM AROUND 40 TO THE LOWER 50S/
WILL RESULT IN THE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN APPROACHING
RECORD LEVELS TODAY. THE RECORD MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY ARE
IN THE UPPER 50S NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR...AND IN THE
LOWER AND MID 60S ELSEWHERE. IN MOST CASES...THEY WERE ESTABLISHED
IN 1977...1990...AND 2006.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...THROUGH MONDAY
317 AM CDT SUN MAR 11 2012
NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST...THOUGH
SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DO APPEAR POSSIBLE ON MONDAY. THERE
STILL IS A HEALTHY SNOW PACK OF UP TO A FOOT ACROSS NORTHERN
CLARK INTO TAYLOR COUNTIES WHICH WILL CONTINUALLY ERODE THROUGH
THE EARLY PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
STILL IN THE 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH RANGE WHICH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
SOME RISES ALONG THE BLACK AND TREMPEALEAU RIVERS...BUT STILL NOT
UP TO FLOOD STAGE.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
317 AM CDT SUN MAR 11 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HALBACH
LONG TERM...HALBACH
AVIATION...DTJ
CLIMATE...BOYNE
HYDROLOGY...HALBACH