Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 03/10/12
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1042 AM MST THU MAR 8 2012
.SHORT TERM...
.AVIATION...SHOULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS
FOR THE NEXT 24 H. SHSN WILL BE CONFINED TO SE CO S OF HGWY 160.
BKN COGS AT KPUB SHOULD DISSIPATE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. ROSE
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 905 AM MST THU MAR 8 2012/
UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO CUT BACK POPS OVER THE CWA AND TO
CANCEL THE WINTER HEADLINES. COULD STILL SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMS OVR THE SRN MTS AND ADJACENT PLAINS...BUT IMPACT SHOULD BE
MINIMAL AT THIS POINT. 44
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 718 AM MST THU MAR 8 2012/
UPDATE...
LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR MODEL CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE
SNOW OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS WILL END LATER THIS MORNING AS
DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. FOR THIS REASON WILL LET THE
WINTER STORM HILITES END LATER THIS MORNING.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM MST THU MAR 8 2012/
SHORT TERM...
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
SNOW FINALLY MATERIALIZING ACROSS THE SANGRES/WETS AND
SURROUNDING AREAS...
CURRENTLY...
DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS...RADAR RETURNS HAVE INCREASED
SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN MTNS AND ADJACENT PLAINS.
SNOW...LIKELY HEAVY...WAS INDICATED ON THE EAST SLOPES OF THE WETS
AND IN THE VICINITY OF THE SPANISH PEAKS. COMPOSITE RADAR IS
CLEARLY INDICATING THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WELL
DEFINED...ALBEIT COMPACT...UPPER LOW...WHICH WAS LOCATED NEAR THE 4
CORNERS. THE SNOW HAS EXTENDED AS FAR NORTH AND EAST AS
PUEBLO...WHERE A TRACE OF SNOW HAS OCCURRED DURING THE LAST HOUR OR
SO.
TODAY...
MAIN CHANGE TO THE FCST WAS TO EXTEND THE WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL
6 PM FOR A SMALL PART OF THE REGION. THIS REGION ENCOMPASSES THE
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS. FOR ALL OTHER AREAS...THE
WINTER STORM WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT NOON.
ALL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL OCCUR WHERE
IT IS OCCURRING NOW...THAT IS...ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE S MTNS
AND ADJACENT I-25 CORRIDOR. SNOW IS LIKELY OCCURRING ALONG THE E SLOPES
OF THE SAN JUANS BASED ON SAT PIX IMGY AND MEAGER RADAR RETURNS AS
SEEN BY NWS RADARS.
UPPER LOW...WHICH IS LACKING SIGNIFICANTLY IN MOISTURE...IS FCST TO
TRACK E-SE TODAY ACROSS NM. THIS WILL KEEP THE REGION IN DEEP
UPSLOPE FLOW. BEST FORCING WILL BE OVER THE S TIER WHERE I HAVE KEPT
THE POPS THE HIGHEST.
TONIGHT...
ALTHOUGH THE LOW IS FCST TO TRACK BACK NWD AND ACTUALLY RETROGRADE
WWD ACROSS FAR N NM TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...ALL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING
VERY LITTLE...IF ANY...QPF OVER THE REGION. THE ONLY QPF BEING
PRINTED OUT IS ACROSS THE FAR S TIER...ALONG THE IMMEDIATE CO/NM
BORDER. ALTHOUGH UPSLOPE FLOW IS RATHER STRONG AND DEEP...THIS
SYSTEM IS LACKING (DRAMATICALLY) WRT MOISTURE. SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE
PLAINS SHOW VERY DRY AIR THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN ADVECTING INTO THIS
SYSTEM FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. LIKEWISE...MOST AREAS TONIGHT
WILL SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING ALONG THE
CO/NM BORDER. /34
LONG TERM...
(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SIT IN
THE VICINITY OF THE OK AND TX PANHANDLES ON FRI...BUT HOW IT MOVES
FROM THERE IS REALLY IN QUESTION NOW. MULTIPLE MODELS AND MODEL RUNS
ARE SHOWING DIFFERING SOLUTIONS ON WHERE THE LOW CENTER WILL
TRACK...FROM RETROGRADING BACK TO THE WEST ACROSS NM...TO EJECTING
NORTH...TO SITTING IN PLACE. THE ONE THING MODELS SEEMED TO AGREE
UPON WAS THAT THERE IS NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM...SO WILL FORECAST MEAGER QPF. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE
TRACK...KEPT THE BEST PCPN CHANCES ALONG THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA WITH FLOW BANKING UP AGAINST THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS AND S
SANGRES. ON SAT...MODELS INDICATE THAT THE LOW WILL FINALLY MAKE
SOME SORT OF MOVE OUT OF THE AREA...AND TAPERED POPS OFF THROUGH
THE DAY. TEMPS BOTH DAYS SHOULD WARM INTO THE 40S AND 50S...WITH
THE COLDEST TEMPS ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LOW EXITS THE REGION...SETTING
UP WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS AND ROCKIES INTO THE
NEXT WORK WEEK FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMING TEMPS. 27
AVIATION...
FOR KCOS...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL ABOUT 14Z AND THEN
DRIER AIR SHOULD ADVECT IN DECREASING THE CLOUDS. VFR SHOULD LAST
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
FOR KPUB...SAME AS KCOS ALTHOUGH LOWER CIGS/LIGHT SNOW SHOULD LAST
UNTIL ABOUT 16Z.
FOR KALS...OCCNL MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH ABOUT
15Z...AND THEN MVFR IS EXPECTED THE REST OF THE FCST PERIOD.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
44/31
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
1020 AM MST THU MAR 8 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1020 AM MST THU MAR 8 2012
CUT-OFF UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHWEST NM WAS KEEPING E-NE FLOW ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...WITH CLOUDS PERSISTING OVER A PORTION OF
SW CO WHERE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE FROM DAYTIME HEATINGJ PRODUCING SHALLOW AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS BUILDING INTO NE UT/NW CO.
EARLY LOOK AT THE NEW MODELS RUNS SHOWS THE CUT- OFF LOW SHIFTING
TOWARDS EASTERN OR NORTHEASTERN NM TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS A SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY ENTERING NORTHERN NV DROPS SOUTHWARD. THE CURRENT
FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 200 AM MST THU MAR 8 2012
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS SAGGING SOUTH ALONG THE AZ-NM BORDER THIS
MORNING THEN WILL EJECT SLOWLY EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN NM THIS
AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED DYNAMICAL LIFT IS SOUTH OF THE CWA AND WRAP-
AROUND MOISTURE IS LIMITED. THIS WOULD PRODUCE SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATION IN THE VICINITY OF MONARCH...SLUMGULLION...AND WOLF
CREEK PASSES TODAY. THE HRRR AND NAM12 ALSO PRODUCE LIGHT
ACCUMULATION OVER THE MANCOS RIDGE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL PREVAIL.
AT THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AND COLD HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHING DOWN THE FRONT RANGE IS PRODUCING NE GRADIENT
WINDS. MTN TOP NE WINDS ARE GUSTING 20-30 OVER EXPOSED TERRAIN.
THE GRADIENT RELAXES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT THE UPPER LOW SETTLES ONTO THE EASTERN NM PLAINS WHERE IT
WILL LANGUISH INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS KEEPS THE FORECAST AREA IN A
LIGHT EAST FLOW ALOFT.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM MST THU MAR 8 2012
THE MIDRANGE MODELS SEEM TO BE STALLING THE CLOSED LOW OVER NEW
MEXICO FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE GFS KEEPS THE 500 MB CENTER
OVER NE NM AND THE PANHANDLES OF TX AND OK FRI. THEN LIFTS IT NORTH
INTO EXTREME SE CO SAT...AND TAKES THE LOW CENTER TO WESTERN KS
SUN MORNING. THE ECMWF RETROGRADES THE LOW CENTER BACK TO WESTERN
NM FRI THEN PUSHES IT EAST SAT AND INTO THE TX PANHANDLE ABOUT 18Z
SUN. THE GFS SOLUTION SHOULD RESULT IN NEARLY CLOUDLESS SKIES
NORTH OF THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE ECMWF
WITH ITS LOW CENTER FURTHER WEST MAY KEEP MORE CLOUD COVER OVER
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA FRI AND SAT. BOTH SCENARIOS
PROVIDE LITTLE CHANCE OF PRECIP OUTSIDE OF ISOLD SHOWERS IN THE SAN
JUANS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SUNDAY IN BOTH MODELS SHOULD BRING CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION AS
THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY. MAX TEMPS SUN THROUGH WED
SHOULD BE 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
EXPECT LITTLE CLOUD COVER AND DRY CONDITIONS AS WELL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1020 AM MST THU MAR 8 2012
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 18Z FRI WITH NORTHEAST
FLOW ALOFT.
CLOUDS LINGERED OVER PORTIONS OF SW CO FROM KMYP TO KDRO LATE THIS
MORNING. SOME LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION COULD PRODUCE ISOLD TO SCT LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS FROM AFTERNOON INSTABILITY.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JAD
SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM....CC
AVIATION...JAD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
905 AM MST THU MAR 8 2012
.UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO CUT BACK POPS OVER THE CWA AND TO
CANCEL THE WINTER HEADLINES. COULD STILL SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMS OVR THE SRN MTS AND ADJACENT PLAINS...BUT IMPACT SHOULD BE
MINIMAL AT THIS POINT. ROSE
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 718 AM MST THU MAR 8 2012/
UPDATE...
LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR MODEL CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE
SNOW OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS WILL END LATER THIS MORNING AS
DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. FOR THIS REASON WILL LET THE
WINTER STORM HILITES END LATER THIS MORNING.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM MST THU MAR 8 2012/
SHORT TERM...
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
.SNOW FINALLY MATERIALIZING ACROSS THE SANGRES/WETS AND
SURROUNDING AREAS...
CURRENTLY...
DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS...RADAR RETURNS HAVE INCREASED
SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN MTNS AND ADJACENT PLAINS.
SNOW...LIKELY HEAVY...WAS INDICATED ON THE EAST SLOPES OF THE WETS
AND IN THE VICINITY OF THE SPANISH PEAKS. COMPOSITE RADAR IS
CLEARLY INDICATING THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WELL
DEFINED...ALBEIT COMPACT...UPPER LOW...WHICH WAS LOCATED NEAR THE 4
CORNERS. THE SNOW HAS EXTENDED AS FAR NORTH AND EAST AS
PUEBLO...WHERE A TRACE OF SNOW HAS OCCURRED DURING THE LAST HOUR OR
SO.
TODAY...
MAIN CHANGE TO THE FCST WAS TO EXTEND THE WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL
6 PM FOR A SMALL PART OF THE REGION. THIS REGION ENCOMPASSES THE
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS. FOR ALL OTHER AREAS...THE
WINTER STORM WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT NOON.
ALL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL OCCUR WHERE
IT IS OCCURRING NOW...THAT IS...ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE S MTNS
AND ADJACENT I-25 CORRIDOR. SNOW IS LIKELY OCCURRING ALONG THE E SLOPES
OF THE SAN JUANS BASED ON SAT PIX IMGY AND MEAGER RADAR RETURNS AS
SEEN BY NWS RADARS.
UPPER LOW...WHICH IS LACKING SIGNIFICANTLY IN MOISTURE...IS FCST TO
TRACK E-SE TODAY ACROSS NM. THIS WILL KEEP THE REGION IN DEEP
UPSLOPE FLOW. BEST FORCING WILL BE OVER THE S TIER WHERE I HAVE KEPT
THE POPS THE HIGHEST.
TONIGHT...
ALTHOUGH THE LOW IS FCST TO TRACK BACK NWD AND ACTUALLY RETROGRADE
WWD ACROSS FAR N NM TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...ALL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING
VERY LITTLE...IF ANY...QPF OVER THE REGION. THE ONLY QPF BEING
PRINTED OUT IS ACROSS THE FAR S TIER...ALONG THE IMMEDIATE CO/NM
BORDER. ALTHOUGH UPSLOPE FLOW IS RATHER STRONG AND DEEP...THIS
SYSTEM IS LACKING (DRAMATICALLY) WRT MOISTURE. SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE
PLAINS SHOW VERY DRY AIR THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN ADVECTING INTO THIS
SYSTEM FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. LIKEWISE...MOST AREAS TONIGHT
WILL SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING ALONG THE
CO/NM BORDER. /34
LONG TERM...
(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SIT IN
THE VICINITY OF THE OK AND TX PANHANDLES ON FRI...BUT HOW IT MOVES
FROM THERE IS REALLY IN QUESTION NOW. MULTIPLE MODELS AND MODEL RUNS
ARE SHOWING DIFFERING SOLUTIONS ON WHERE THE LOW CENTER WILL
TRACK...FROM RETROGRADING BACK TO THE WEST ACROSS NM...TO EJECTING
NORTH...TO SITTING IN PLACE. THE ONE THING MODELS SEEMED TO AGREE
UPON WAS THAT THERE IS NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM...SO WILL FORECAST MEAGER QPF. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE
TRACK...KEPT THE BEST PCPN CHANCES ALONG THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA WITH FLOW BANKING UP AGAINST THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS AND S
SANGRES. ON SAT...MODELS INDICATE THAT THE LOW WILL FINALLY MAKE
SOME SORT OF MOVE OUT OF THE AREA...AND TAPERED POPS OFF THROUGH
THE DAY. TEMPS BOTH DAYS SHOULD WARM INTO THE 40S AND 50S...WITH
THE COLDEST TEMPS ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LOW EXITS THE REGION...SETTING
UP WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS AND ROCKIES INTO THE
NEXT WORK WEEK FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMING TEMPS. 27
AVIATION...
FOR KCOS...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL ABOUT 14Z AND THEN
DRIER AIR SHOULD ADVECT IN DECREASING THE CLOUDS. VFR SHOULD LAST
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
FOR KPUB...SAME AS KCOS ALTHOUGH LOWER CIGS/LIGHT SNOW SHOULD LAST
UNTIL ABOUT 16Z.
FOR KALS...OCCNL MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH ABOUT
15Z...AND THEN MVFR IS EXPECTED THE REST OF THE FCST PERIOD.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
44/31
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
718 AM MST THU MAR 8 2012
.UPDATE...
LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR MODEL CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE
SNOW OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS WILL END LATER THIS MORNING AS
DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. FOR THIS REASON WILL LET THE
WINTER STORM HILITES END LATER THIS MORNING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM MST THU MAR 8 2012/
SHORT TERM...
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
..SNOW FINALLY MATERIALIZING ACROSS THE SANGRES/WETS AND
SURROUNDING AREAS...
CURRENTLY...
DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS...RADAR RETURNS HAVE INCREASED
SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN MTNS AND ADJACENT PLAINS.
SNOW...LIKELY HEAVY...WAS INDICATED ON THE EAST SLOPES OF THE WETS
AND IN THE VICINITY OF THE SPANISH PEAKS. COMPOSITE RADAR IS
CLEARLY INDICATING THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WELL
DEFINED...ALBEIT COMPACT...UPPER LOW...WHICH WAS LOCATED NEAR THE 4
CORNERS. THE SNOW HAS EXTENDED AS FAR NORTH AND EAST AS
PUEBLO...WHERE A TRACE OF SNOW HAS OCCURRED DURING THE LAST HOUR OR
SO.
TODAY...
MAIN CHANGE TO THE FCST WAS TO EXTEND THE WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL
6 PM FOR A SMALL PART OF THE REGION. THIS REGION ENCOMPASSES THE
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS. FOR ALL OTHER AREAS...THE
WINTER STORM WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT NOON.
ALL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL OCCUR WHERE
IT IS OCCURRING NOW...THAT IS...ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE S MTNS
AND ADJACENT I-25 CORRIDOR. SNOW IS LIKELY OCCURRING ALONG THE E SLOPES
OF THE SAN JUANS BASED ON SAT PIX IMGY AND MEAGER RADAR RETURNS AS
SEEN BY NWS RADARS.
UPPER LOW...WHICH IS LACKING SIGNIFICANTLY IN MOISTURE...IS FCST TO
TRACK E-SE TODAY ACROSS NM. THIS WILL KEEP THE REGION IN DEEP
UPSLOPE FLOW. BEST FORCING WILL BE OVER THE S TIER WHERE I HAVE KEPT
THE POPS THE HIGHEST.
TONIGHT...
ALTHOUGH THE LOW IS FCST TO TRACK BACK NWD AND ACTUALLY RETROGRADE
WWD ACROSS FAR N NM TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...ALL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING
VERY LITTLE...IF ANY...QPF OVER THE REGION. THE ONLY QPF BEING
PRINTED OUT IS ACROSS THE FAR S TIER...ALONG THE IMMEDIATE CO/NM
BORDER. ALTHOUGH UPSLOPE FLOW IS RATHER STRONG AND DEEP...THIS
SYSTEM IS LACKING (DRAMATICALLY) WRT MOISTURE. SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE
PLAINS SHOW VERY DRY AIR THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN ADVECTING INTO THIS
SYSTEM FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. LIKEWISE...MOST AREAS TONIGHT
WILL SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING ALONG THE
CO/NM BORDER. /34
LONG TERM...
(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SIT IN
THE VICINITY OF THE OK AND TX PANHANDLES ON FRI...BUT HOW IT MOVES
FROM THERE IS REALLY IN QUESTION NOW. MULTIPLE MODELS AND MODEL RUNS
ARE SHOWING DIFFERING SOLUTIONS ON WHERE THE LOW CENTER WILL
TRACK...FROM RETROGRADING BACK TO THE WEST ACROSS NM...TO EJECTING
NORTH...TO SITTING IN PLACE. THE ONE THING MODELS SEEMED TO AGREE
UPON WAS THAT THERE IS NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM...SO WILL FORECAST MEAGER QPF. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE
TRACK...KEPT THE BEST PCPN CHANCES ALONG THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA WITH FLOW BANKING UP AGAINST THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS AND S
SANGRES. ON SAT...MODELS INDICATE THAT THE LOW WILL FINALLY MAKE
SOME SORT OF MOVE OUT OF THE AREA...AND TAPERED POPS OFF THROUGH
THE DAY. TEMPS BOTH DAYS SHOULD WARM INTO THE 40S AND 50S...WITH
THE COLDEST TEMPS ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LOW EXITS THE REGION...SETTING
UP WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS AND ROCKIES INTO THE
NEXT WORK WEEK FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMING TEMPS. 27
AVIATION...
FOR KCOS...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL ABOUT 14Z AND THEN
DRIER AIR SHOULD ADVECT IN DECREASING THE CLOUDS. VFR SHOULD LAST
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
FOR KPUB...SAME AS KCOS ALTHOUGH LOWER CIGS/LIGHT SNOW SHOULD LAST
UNTIL ABOUT 16Z.
FOR KALS...OCCNL MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH ABOUT
15Z...AND THEN MVFR IS EXPECTED THE REST OF THE FCST PERIOD.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR COZ067-068-
072>075-078>080-087-088.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR COZ066.
&&
$$
34/34
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
311 AM MST THU MAR 8 2012
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 200 AM MST THU MAR 8 2012
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS SAGGING SOUTH ALONG THE AZ-NM BORDER THIS
MORNING THEN WILL EJECT SLOWLY EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN NM THIS
AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED DYNAMICAL LIFT IS SOUTH OF THE CWA AND WRAP-
AROUND MOISTURE IS LIMITED. THIS WOULD PRODUCE SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATION IN THE VICINITY OF MONARCH...SLUMGULLION...AND WOLF
CREEK PASSES TODAY. THE HRRR AND NAM12 ALSO PRODUCE LIGHT
ACCUMULATION OVER THE MANCOS RIDGE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL PREVAIL.
AT THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AND COLD HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHING DOWN THE FRONT RANGE IS PRODUCING NE GRADIENT
WINDS. MTN TOP NE WINDS ARE GUSTING 20-30 OVER EXPOSED TERRAIN.
THE GRADIENT RELAXES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT THE UPPER LOW SETTLES ONTO THE EASTERN NM PLAINS WHERE IT
WILL LANGUISH INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS KEEPS THE FORECAST AREA IN A
LIGHT EAST FLOW ALOFT.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM MST THU MAR 8 2012
THE MIDRANGE MODELS SEEM TO BE STALLING THE CLOSED LOW OVER NEW
MEXICO FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE GFS KEEPS THE 500 MB CENTER
OVER NE NM AND THE PANHANDLES OF TX AND OK FRI. THEN LIFTS IT NORTH
INTO EXTREME SE CO SAT...AND TAKES THE LOW CENTER TO WESTERN KS
SUN MORNING. THE ECMWF RETROGRADES THE LOW CENTER BACK TO WESTERN
NM FRI THEN PUSHES IT EAST SAT AND INTO THE TX PANHANDLE ABOUT 18Z
SUN. THE GFS SOLUTION SHOULD RESULT IN NEARLY CLOUDLESS SKIES
NORTH OF THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE ECMWF
WITH ITS LOW CENTER FURTHER WEST MAY KEEP MORE CLOUD COVER OVER
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA FRI AND SAT. BOTH SCENARIOS
PROVIDE LITTLE CHANCE OF PRECIP OUTSIDE OF ISOLD SHOWERS IN THE SAN
JUANS THRU THE WEEKEND.
SUNDAY IN BOTH MODELS SHOULD BRING CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION AS
THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY. MAX TEMPS SUN THRU WED
SHOULD BE 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
EXPECT LITTLE CLOUD COVER AND DRY CONDITIONS AS WELL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 200 AM MST THU MAR 8 2012
VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE INTO FRIDAY. THE EXCEPTION IS SCT SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHERN MTNS ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 550. EXPECT
SCT MVFR CIGS AND VSBY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON THERE WITH MTN TOPS
OCNLY OBSCURED. WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR OVER AND EAST
OF MONARCH...SLUMGULLION...AND WOLF CREEK PASSES THAT WILL PRODUCE
MVFR/LOCAL IFR CIGS AND VSBY. ALL OF THESE SOUTHERN SHOWERS WILL
DIMINISH QUICKLY AFTER 6 PM THIS EVENING WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM....CC
AVIATION...JOE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
208 AM MST THU MAR 8 2012
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 200 AM MST THU MAR 8 2012
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS SAGGING SOUTH ALONG THE AZ-NM BORDER THIS
MORNING THEN WILL EJECT SLOWLY EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN NM THIS
AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED DYNAMICAL LIFT IS SOUTH OF THE CWA AND WRAP-
AROUND MOISTURE IS LIMITED. THIS WOULD PRODUCE SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATION IN THE VICINITY OF MONARCH...SLUMGULLION...AND WOLF
CREEK PASSES TODAY. THE HRRR AND NAM12 ALSO PRODUCE LIGHT
ACCUMULATION OVER THE MANCOS RIDGE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL PREVAIL.
AT THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AND COLD HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHING DOWN THE FRONT RANGE IS PRODUCING NE GRADIENT
WINDS. MTN TOP NE WINDS ARE GUSTING 20-30 OVER EXPOSED TERRAIN.
THE GRADIENT RELAXES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT THE UPPER LOW SETTLES ONTO THE EASTERN NM PLAINS WHERE IT
WILL LANGUISH INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS KEEPS THE FORECAST AREA IN A
LIGHT EAST FLOW ALOFT.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM MST WED MAR 7 2012
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE LOW SITTING OVER THE
EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS REGIONS THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE
IT EJECTS NORTH NORTHEAST INTO THE PLAINS THIS WEEKEND. NOT
ANTICIPATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF IMPACT ON OUR FORECAST
AREA...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO FOR THE
EASTERN STRETCHES OF OUR SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
FINALLY PUSH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY WITH TEMPS
CLIMBING BACK TO ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. THE RIDGE TRANSLATES EAST
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW STRENGTHENING AS A NEW
WAVE OF PACIFIC STORMS PLOWS INTO THE PAC NW. THIS WILL BRING A
RETURN TO MORE SPRING LIKE WINDS OVER THE REGION...WITH BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. FEW WEAK
DISTURBANCES WILL ALSO PASS THROUGH...ONE MONDAY NIGHT AND ANOTHER
TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MOUNTAINS SHOWERS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 200 AM MST THU MAR 8 2012
VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE INTO FRIDAY. THE EXCEPTION IS SCT SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHERN MTNS ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 550. EXPECT
SCT MVFR CIGS AND VSBY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON THERE WITH MTN TOPS
OCNLY OBSCURED. WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR OVER AND EAST
OF MONARCH...SLUMGULLION...AND WOLF CREEK PASSES THAT WILL PRODUCE
MVFR/LOCAL IFR CIGS AND VSBY. ALL OF THESE SOUTHERN SHOWERS WILL
DIMINISH QUICKLY AFTER 6 PM THIS EVENING WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM....JDC
AVIATION...JOE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
1044 PM EST FRI MAR 9 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING...BRINGING SNOW SHOWERS TO MUCH OF
THE REGION. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER WILL USHER IN
EVEN COLDER AIR FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY...THEN WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE BACK TO
ABOVE NORMAL READINGS ON SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
THE BASE OF THIS COLD TROUGH WAS OVER THE HEART OF THE CWA PER THE
H2O VAPOR LOOP. 00Z SOUNDING FROM HERE WAS QUITE IMPRESSIVE WITH STEEP
LAPSE RATES UP TO 550MB. NOW WITH THE LOSS OF THE DAYTIME
HEATING...THE SQUALLS HAVE DIMINISHED. HOWEVER...LAKE ONTARIO
RESPONSE HAS INCREASED WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION AND FAVORABLE
INVERSION HEIGHTS. WE WILL KEEP SCATTERED POPS FOR THE DACKS AND
MOHAWK VALLEY AS THOSE INVERSION HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY
LOWER AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MAIN UPDATES WERE TO SKY COVER PER IR IMAGERY AND HOURLY TEMPS.
PER THE LATEST 00Z MOS AND HOURLY UPDATED LAMP/LAV...HAVE RAISED
OVERNIGHT LOWS BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES. OTHERWISE...WIND GRIDS LOOK
GREAT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS. AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO BE COLD THOUGH...AS
850MB TEMPS ONLY REACH -11C TO -15C ACROSS THE AREA WHICH SHOULD
ONLY TRANSLATE TO HIGHS IN THE 30S IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS WITH
ONLY 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS. SATURDAY NIGHT WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL
START TO MOVE IN...BUT DECOUPLING SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO COOL
NEAR NORMAL READINGS.
A MODERATION IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY...AS A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
BRINGS IN MILD AIR FROM THE MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY. DECENT MIXING
CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH TEMPS SURGING INTO THE 50S IN MOST VALLEY
LOCATIONS. EVEN UPPER 40S EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. DRY
CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A RIDGE REMAINING IN
PLACE.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS...WITH BROAD W-SW FLOW ALOFT. THE 12 UTC GEFS SHOWS
500 HPA HEIGHTS OF 1-2 STD ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WHOLE WEEK...WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW FOR MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S FOR
VALLEY AREAS FOR MON THROUGH THURS. EVEN OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING IN MOST AREAS /EVEN MUCH OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AS WELL./ DUE TO THE STRONG RIDGE AND HIGH HEIGHTS ALOFT...CHANCES
FOR ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION APPEARS LOW THROUGH THE EARLY TO MID
WEEK PERIOD.
A WEAK STORM WILL MOVE WELL NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. A SFC BOUNDARY ATTACHED TO THIS SYSTEM
COULD ALLOW FOR SOME SCT RAIN SHOWERS FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING...BUT MANY AREAS WILL STAY DRY...AS FORCING WILL
REMAIN WEAK AND THE SFC BOUNDARY WILL BE DYING OUT. HIGH PRESSURE
LOOKS TO RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY INTO MUCH OF THURSDAY TO KEEP ENOUGH
SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION TO KEEP THINGS DRY AND TEMPERATURES
CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL.
ACCORDING TO THE LATEST 12 UTC GFS...A COLD FRONT MAY FINALLY PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA BY LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...WHICH MAY
DROP HEIGHTS SOMEWHAT...AND LOWER TEMPS TO THE LOWER 50S FOR VALLEY
AREAS FOR FRIDAY. STILL...THIS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL. THIS SCENARIO
HAS SOME SUPPORT FROM THE 12 UTC GGEM AS WELL...ALTHOUGH THE 12 UTC
ECMWF SHOWS THE RIDGE REMAINING STRONG ACROSS THE EAST COAST.
WITH THE GFS SCENARIO...HIGH PRESSURE WOULD BE MOVING INTO THE AREA
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING ON FRIDAY NIGHT...AND CLOSER TO SEASONABLE LOWS COULD RETURN
FOR FRI NIGHT...WITH MID 20S TO MID 30S ACROSS THE REGION.
STILL...THIS COULD CHANGE IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT...AS THE MILD AIR
COULD STICK AROUND RIGHT INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING WILL
ALLOW FOR A FEW SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS TO AFFECT THE TAF SITES
THROUGH ABOUT 02Z OR SO. BASED OFF THE 3KM HRRR MODEL GUIDANCE
AND LATEST KENX RADAR RETURNS...KALB WOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY SITE
TO EXPERIENCE THESE SQUALLS...SO HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO FOR IFR
VSBYS WITHIN ANY SNOW SHOWER/SQUALL. DOWNSLOPING OFF THE CATSKILLS
SHOULD DECREASE THE THREAT FOR KPOU...SO HAVE ONLY INCLUDED A VCSH
THERE. MEANWHILE...SOME ACTIVITY MAY PASS OVER KGFL...ALTHOUGH IT
DOESN/T LOOK QUITE AS INTENSE AS THE ACTIVITY FURTHER SOUTH...SO
HAVE ONLY INCLUDED A TEMPO FOR MVFR CIGS/VSBYS THERE.
BY LATER TONIGHT...THE THREAT FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL HAVE ENDED AND
JUST SOME LINGERING STRATOCU WILL BE IN PLACE. THESE CIGS SHOULD
BE VFR AND REMAIN JUST ABOVE THE VFR/MVFR THRESHOLD. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD
DISSIPATE SOMETIME DURING SAT MORNING...ALTHOUGH SOME DIURNAL CU
AND PASSING HIGH CIRRUS WILL BE AROUND FOR SAT AFTN...BUT CONDITIONS
LOOKS VFR.
WINDS THIS EVENING GENERALLY WILL BE WESTERLY AROUND 7-12 KTS AND
MAY BE A BIT GUSTY FOR A FEW HOURS...ESP AT KPOU. THESE WINDS WILL
DECREASE SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT...BUT STILL BE ABOUT 5-10
KTS...ALTHOUGH NOT QUITE AS GUSTY...AND THE DIRECTION WILL START
TO SWING TO A MORE N-NW DIRECTION. WINDS WILL CONTINUE ABOUT 5-10
KTS ON SATURDAY...AND WITHIN DAYTIME MIXING...COULD BECOME GUSTY
AGAIN...MAINLY FOR KALB/KPOU DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
SNOW MELT HAS SLOWED TODAY DUE TO COLDER TEMPERATURES...AND AN EVEN
COLDER AIR MASS WILL INVADE FOR TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS
WILL LIKELY NOT GET ABOVE FREEZING DURING THIS TIME...AND THIS IS
WHERE MOST OF THE SNOW PACK EXISTS. SNOW MELT WILL RESUME ON
SUNDAY...AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 40S TO 50S...BUT WILL OCCUR
MORE OF A DIURNAL CYCLE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
TEMPERATURES AT NIGHT DROP TO NEAR FREEZING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
GRADUAL SNOW MELT AND ASSOCIATED RUNOFF.
IN TERMS OF UPCOMING PRECIPITATION...A FEW INCHES OF SNOW ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH QPF AMOUNTS OF GENERALLY ONLY ONE TO
TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH ONLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...BGM/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...JPV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
643 PM EST FRI MAR 9 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING...BRINGING SNOW SHOWERS TO MUCH OF
THE REGION. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER WILL USHER IN
EVEN COLDER AIR FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY...THEN WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE BACK TO
ABOVE NORMAL READINGS ON SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
IMPRESSIVE SHORT WAVE AS SEEN ON THE H2O VAPOR LOOP CONTINUES TO
TRACK ACROSS THE REGION. SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS HAVE BEEN
EVIDENT ALONG WITH SEVERAL LIGHTNING STRIKES ACROSS THE WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN TOUGH AND ELEVATION DEPENDENT.
PER WEB CAMS ACROSS THE REGION...SEEMS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
PORTIONS OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY HAVE SEEN THE MOST ACCUMULATIONS
WITH HUDSON RIVER VALLEY NOT TOO MUCH. CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS IN
EXCELLENT SHAPE WITH MINOR TWEAKS TO HOURLY GRIDS. AS FOR
WINDS...DID INCREASE THE GUST POTENTIAL DUE TO THE SQUALLS AND
UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS.
THE PREVIOUS EXCELLENT AFD...POTENT MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
APPROACHING OUR AREA MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL NEW YORK AT THIS
TIME...AND WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
THIS EVENING. THIS SYSTEM IS STILL WELL-DEPICTED ON WATER VAPOR
AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. STEEP LAPSE RATES NOTED IN FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INTO EVENING. WITH NIGHTFALL APPROACHING SNOW SHOWERS
MAY NOT BE AS INTENSE AS THEY HAVE BEEN OVER WESTERN/CENTRAL
NY...BUT SOME BRIEFLY HEAVIER BURSTS OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SHOW BEST SWATH OF ONE TENTH
TO ONE QUARTER INCH QPF FROM AN AXIS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS-
SARATOGA-SOUTHERN VERMONT AREA SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
MOHAWK/SCHOHARIE VALLEYS-CAPITAL REGION-NORTHERN BERKSHIRES. SNOW
RATIOS DIFFICULT TO FORECAST DUE TO INITIALLY WARM SURFACE TEMPS
IN THE VALLEYS. HIGHER RATIOS WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. MAIN AREAS FOR QPF MAXIMUMS OVER THE WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN VERMONT/NORTHERN BERKSHIRES...WHERE 2-4" OF
SNOW IS EXPECTED. ELSEWHERE...GENERALLY ONE TO PERHAPS TWO INCHES
POSSIBLE...EXCEPT LESS THAN AN INCH ACROSS FARTHER NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN ZONES.
THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL TEND TO TAPER OFF AROUND MIDNIGHT...BUT
COULD LINGER A BIT LONGER ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT AND OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. BY AROUND SUNRISE SATURDAY EXPECTING DRY BUT COLD
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS. AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO BE COLD THOUGH...AS
850MB TEMPS ONLY REACH -11C TO -15C ACROSS THE AREA WHICH SHOULD
ONLY TRANSLATE TO HIGHS IN THE 30S IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS WITH
ONLY 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS. SATURDAY NIGHT WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL
START TO MOVE IN...BUT DECOUPLING SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO COOL
NEAR NORMAL READINGS.
A MODERATION IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY...AS A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
BRINGS IN MILD AIR FROM THE MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY. DECENT MIXING
CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH TEMPS SURGING INTO THE 50S IN MOST VALLEY
LOCATIONS. EVEN UPPER 40S EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. DRY
CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A RIDGE REMAINING IN
PLACE.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS...WITH BROAD W-SW FLOW ALOFT. THE 12 UTC GEFS SHOWS
500 HPA HEIGHTS OF 1-2 STD ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WHOLE WEEK...WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW FOR MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S FOR
VALLEY AREAS FOR MON THROUGH THURS. EVEN OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING IN MOST AREAS /EVEN MUCH OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AS WELL./ DUE TO THE STRONG RIDGE AND HIGH HEIGHTS ALOFT...CHANCES
FOR ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION APPEARS LOW THROUGH THE EARLY TO MID
WEEK PERIOD.
A WEAK STORM WILL MOVE WELL NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. A SFC BOUNDARY ATTACHED TO THIS SYSTEM
COULD ALLOW FOR SOME SCT RAIN SHOWERS FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING...BUT MANY AREAS WILL STAY DRY...AS FORCING WILL
REMAIN WEAK AND THE SFC BOUNDARY WILL BE DYING OUT. HIGH PRESSURE
LOOKS TO RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY INTO MUCH OF THURSDAY TO KEEP ENOUGH
SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION TO KEEP THINGS DRY AND TEMPERATURES
CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL.
ACCORDING TO THE LATEST 12 UTC GFS...A COLD FRONT MAY FINALLY PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA BY LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...WHICH MAY
DROP HEIGHTS SOMEWHAT...AND LOWER TEMPS TO THE LOWER 50S FOR VALLEY
AREAS FOR FRIDAY. STILL...THIS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL. THIS SCENARIO
HAS SOME SUPPORT FROM THE 12 UTC GGEM AS WELL...ALTHOUGH THE 12 UTC
ECMWF SHOWS THE RIDGE REMAINING STRONG ACROSS THE EAST COAST.
WITH THE GFS SCENARIO...HIGH PRESSURE WOULD BE MOVING INTO THE AREA
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING ON FRIDAY NIGHT...AND CLOSER TO SEASONABLE LOWS COULD RETURN
FOR FRI NIGHT...WITH MID 20S TO MID 30S ACROSS THE REGION.
STILL...THIS COULD CHANGE IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT...AS THE MILD AIR
COULD STICK AROUND RIGHT INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING WILL
ALLOW FOR A FEW SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS TO AFFECT THE TAF SITES
THROUGH ABOUT 02Z OR SO. BASED OFF THE 3KM HRRR MODEL GUIDANCE
AND LATEST KENX RADAR RETURNS...KALB WOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY SITE
TO EXPERIENCE THESE SQUALLS...SO HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO FOR IFR
VSBYS WITHIN ANY SNOW SHOWER/SQUALL. DOWNSLOPING OFF THE CATSKILLS
SHOULD DECREASE THE THREAT FOR KPOU...SO HAVE ONLY INCLUDED A VCSH
THERE. MEANWHILE...SOME ACTIVITY MAY PASS OVER KGFL...ALTHOUGH IT
DOESN/T LOOK QUITE AS INTENSE AS THE ACTIVITY FURTHER SOUTH...SO
HAVE ONLY INCLUDED A TEMPO FOR MVFR CIGS/VSBYS THERE.
BY LATER TONIGHT...THE THREAT FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL HAVE ENDED AND
JUST SOME LINGERING STRATOCU WILL BE IN PLACE. THESE CIGS SHOULD
BE VFR AND REMAIN JUST ABOVE THE VFR/MVFR THRESHOLD. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD
DISSIPATE SOMETIME DURING SAT MORNING...ALTHOUGH SOME DIURNAL CU
AND PASSING HIGH CIRRUS WILL BE AROUND FOR SAT AFTN...BUT CONDITIONS
LOOKS VFR.
WINDS THIS EVENING GENERALLY WILL BE WESTERLY AROUND 7-12 KTS AND
MAY BE A BIT GUSTY FOR A FEW HOURS...ESP AT KPOU. THESE WINDS WILL
DECREASE SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT...BUT STILL BE ABOUT 5-10
KTS...ALTHOUGH NOT QUITE AS GUSTY...AND THE DIRECTION WILL START
TO SWING TO A MORE N-NW DIRECTION. WINDS WILL CONTINUE ABOUT 5-10
KTS ON SATURDAY...AND WITHIN DAYTIME MIXING...COULD BECOME GUSTY
AGAIN...MAINLY FOR KALB/KPOU DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
SNOW MELT HAS SLOWED TODAY DUE TO COLDER TEMPERATURES...AND AN EVEN
COLDER AIR MASS WILL INVADE FOR TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS
WILL LIKELY NOT GET ABOVE FREEZING DURING THIS TIME...AND THIS IS
WHERE MOST OF THE SNOW PACK EXISTS. SNOW MELT WILL RESUME ON
SUNDAY...AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 40S TO 50S...BUT WILL OCCUR
MORE OF A DIURNAL CYCLE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
TEMPERATURES AT NIGHT DROP TO NEAR FREEZING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
GRADUAL SNOW MELT AND ASSOCIATED RUNOFF.
IN TERMS OF UPCOMING PRECIPITATION...A FEW INCHES OF SNOW ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH QPF AMOUNTS OF GENERALLY ONLY ONE TO
TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH ONLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...BGM/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...JPV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
627 PM EST FRI MAR 9 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER TO THE REGION TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST BY SUNDAY
ALLOWING A MILDER SOUTHWEST FLOW OF AIR...WHICH WILL CONTINUE FOR
MOST OF NEXT WEEK. A COUPLE OF RATHER WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEMS COULD
AFFECT THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND/OR THURSDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS. AFTER TOMORROW...TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
JUST SOME TWEAKING OF TEMPERATURES AND POPS (SLIGHTLY MORE TO THE
SOUTH) WERE MADE WITH THIS UPCOMING UPDATE. THERE IS VERY LITTLE
SHEAR BETWEEN 925MB AND 850MB, BUT SHOULD INCREASE AFTER 7 PM.
THIS SHOULD START TO DECREASE THE INTENSITY AND COVERAGE OF THE
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AS SHOWN WITH THE HRRR AS THE EVENING
PROGRESSES.
THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT WAS MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE EASTERN
PART OF OUR CWA. IT WILL PASS OFF THE COAST AND MOVE OUT TO SEA
THIS EVENING. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD
AND IT SHOULD PASS OVERHEAD AROUND MIDNIGHT.
A FAIR AMOUNT OF HIGH BASED STRATOCUMULUS AND ALTOCUMULUS DEVELOPED
OVER PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW JERSEY THIS AFTERNOON. THE CLOUDS SHOULD
REMAIN OVERHEAD INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE ERODING FROM THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST.
WE WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY SCATTERED SPRINKLES AND FLURRIES IN OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES INTO THIS EVENING. WE WILL MENTION SCATTERED TO
ISOLATED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN WHERE A VERY
LIGHT ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE. IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THE BETTER
DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
THE COLDEST OF THE AIR WILL LIKELY REACH OUR FORECAST AREA LATE
TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 20S AT MOST
LOCATIONS.
THE WIND AROUND 925 HPA IS ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN IN THE 25 TO 30
KNOT RANGE TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD TRANSLATE TO NUMEROUS GUSTS IN THE
20 TO 30 MPH RANGE WITH A FEW GUSTS IN THE 30S. SUSTAINED SPEEDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY IS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO OUR REGION FROM THE WEST.
DURING THE AFTERNOON, THE COLD AIR WILL BEGIN TO LIFT TO OUR
NORTHEAST RATHER QUICKLY. EVEN SO, TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE ONLY
INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S AT MOST LOCATIONS.
A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND DURING THE MORNING SHOULD DIMINISH TO LESS
THAN 10 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TO OUR SOUTH ON SUNDAY. A
THERMAL RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER OUR AREA SUNDAY AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM PUMPS WARMER AIR UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST, RESULTING
IN HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR MONDAY, AS THE CONTINUED
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN A DEEPENING IN THE THERMAL RIDGE
OVER OUR AREA.
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY APPROACH OUR
AREA EXTENDING FROM A LOW PRESSURE PASSING OVER SOUTHERN CANADA.
DURING THIS APPROACH, THERE MAY BE ENOUGH ENERGY AVAILABLE FOR
SOME PRECIPITATION TO OCCUR IN OUR AREA. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN
THE FORECAST...WE HAVE KEPT ONLY A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR
TUESDAY. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WELL ABOVE NORMAL YET AGAIN FOR TUESDAY, POSSIBLY EXCEEDING 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN SOME AREAS.
AFTER THE POTENTIAL RAIN CHANCE MOVES OUT OF OUR AREA, WEDNESDAY IS
LOOKING TO BE YET ANOTHER DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY. A WEAK
SHORT WAVE SYSTEM MAY CROSS OVER OUR AREA, THOUGH ITS TOO EARLY TO
TELL WHETHER OR NOT THIS WILL CREATE ANY PRECIPITATION. LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A COOL FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. THIS COULD HELP INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATER IN
THE WEEK. THE GFS ESPECIALLY IS HINTING AT SOME INSTABILITY IN OUR
AREA, POSSIBLY FURTHER AIDING PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT THAT TIME.
HOWEVER...THE ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE TREND IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS WELL.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A LOW
ALTOCUMULUS DECK OF CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR TAF
AREA WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AS THE NIGHT CONTINUES. NO CIGS
ARE ANTICIPATED AT THE NORTHERN TAF SITES AFTER 05Z. IN THE
SOUTHERN PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA FROM ABOUT KPHL SWD, SOME
ALTOCU WILL BE AROUND THIS EVENING, BUT NO CIGS ARE FORECAST. WINDS
WILL REMAIN BRISK FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE NIGHT, WITH GUSTS
FORECAST TO BE BETWEEN 20KT AND 30KT. THERE SHOULD BE A SLIGHT
DECREASE IN GUSTINESS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SATURDAY MORNING SHOULD START CLEAR. NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD
AVERAGE AROUND 10 KT WITH SOME GUSTINESS TO AROUND 20KT. THE WIND
GUSTS SHOULD CEASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
NEARS. SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS SHOULD PASS OVER THE TERMINALS MAINLY
FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER AND VFR FLYING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. BRIEFLY LOWER CIGS/VSBY ARE POSSIBLE MON
NIGHT OR TUE MORNING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
THE SECOND SURGE OF COLD AIR IS ABOUT TO ARRIVE IN THE MARINE AREAS.
IN THE SECOND SURGE OF COLD AIR FROM THIS EVENING INTO SATURDAY
MORNING, THE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS SHOULD AGAIN GUST INTO THE 25 TO
30 KNOT RANGE. AS A RESULT, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL RUN UNTIL
NOON ON SATURDAY.
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR REGION FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON, WIND SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH.
OUTLOOK...
A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL PREVAIL FOR THE PERIOD
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE EAST
OF CAPE HATTERAS. WINDS/WAVES COULD APPROACH SCA CONDS MONDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WHILE WATER LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN LOW INTO SATURDAY, THEY ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED TO REACH THE ADVISORY CRITERION BASED ON THE LATEST
GUIDANCE.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ430-431-
450>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMC
NEAR TERM...GIGI/IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...AMC
AVIATION...AMC/GIGI
MARINE...AMC/IOVINO
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...IOVINO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
236 PM CST THU MAR 8 2012
.DISCUSSION...
1008 AM CST
NO REAL ISSUES LATE THIS MORNING OR GOING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...WITH MINOR CHANGES TO POP/WX GRIDS AS RAIN HAS EXITED
THE CWA...AND SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD TRENDS TODAY.
SURFACE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT HAVE SINCE SHIFTED
EAST/SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA THIS MORNING...AS HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS
EAST WITH PRESSURE RISES NOTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THIS
HOUR. ALTHOUGH...MAIN RIDGE AXIS REMAINS TO THE WEST OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND APPEARS AS IF IT WILL REMAIN SITUATED TO THE
WEST WITH A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT TO REMAIN OVER THE CWA
TODAY. THIS WILL OCCUR AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS
OVERHEAD...WITH A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST...WHICH WILL PLAY A FACTOR WITH CLOUD
TRENDS TODAY. LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST
THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA THROUGH MID DAY WITH A
PARTIAL CLEARING TREND EXPECTED THROUGH MID DAY. ALTHOUGH...WITH
COOLER AIR MOVING THROUGH...STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND
THE APPROACHING WAVE...A REDEVELOPMENT OF CU/STRATO CU WILL HELP
TO PROVIDE WHATEVER CLEAR SKIES ARE IN PLACE TO BECOME MORE PARTLY
SUNNY/CLOUDY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS DIURNAL CU WILL THEN DIMINISH
WITH A CLEARING TREND EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING.
EVENING SKIES GRIDS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED FOR THE AFTERNOON
ISSUANCE...AS A QUICKLY APPROACHING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY
PROVIDE ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER LATE THIS EVENING BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD EARLY FRIDAY.
RODRIGUEZ
//PREV DISCUSSION...
307 AM CST
THE IMMEDIATE CONCERNS WITH THE FORECAST ARE WITH THE FALLING
TEMPERATURES...AS WELL AS CONTINUED POST FRONTAL SHOWERS AND EVEN
SOME THUNDER CHANCES THIS MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA. THEN ATTENTION TURNS TO RAIN POTENTIAL SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY
THE TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK AS A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP...OR RE-WARM UP
WE SHOULD SAY...LOOKS LIKELY.
FOR THE CURRENT SITUATION...A VERY WELL-DEFINED COLD FRONT IS
CLEARING THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. ROBUSTLY WARM AIR
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE HELPED CHICAGO BREAK THEIR RECORD WARM LOW
FOR YESTERDAY /54 DEGREES/. THE COMBINATION OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
AND RAIN TOOK TEMPERATURES DOWN AS MUCH AS 14 DEGREES IN ONE
HOUR AT SOME LOCATIONS. A GOOD PART OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
POST-FRONTAL...ASSOCIATED WITH ELEVATED MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
STRONG CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. ITS A GOOD THING A LOT OF
THIS IS POST FRONTAL...AS MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT
COULD HAVE POTENTIALLY STEERED DOWN SOME OF THE 55 KT FLOW AT 1500
FT SEEN ON THE KLOT DOPPLER VELOCITY FOR HOURS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
THE NORTHWEST WIND SPEEDS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE ACTUALLY QUITE A
BIT LOWER...GUSTING AT TIMES TO NEAR 25 MPH. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE
TO BE THE CASE INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
AN INTERESTING AREA OF ELEVATED CONVECTION IS SEEN IN NORTHERN MO
AS OF 300 AM HAVING ORIGINATED IN KS WITH A SHORT WAVE PER WATER
VAPOR ANALYSIS. THIS AREA CONTINUES TO GROW UPSCALE EAST
NORTHEAST...WELL BEHIND THE FRONT. RUC AND NAM CROSS SECTIONS
THROUGH THIS AREA SHOW STRONG MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND A VERY
DEEP LAYER /AROUND 200 MB/ OF NEGATIVE EPV AND SLIGHTLY
DECREASING THETA-E...INDICATING CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY PRESENT.
THE RUC FORECAST FOR THE FORCING AND INSTABILITY...AND HRRR
PROJECTION OF REFLECTIVITY...SEEMS TO HAVE A STRONG HANDLE ON
THIS...WHILE MOST OTHER GUIDANCE DOES NOT. THIS AREA IS FORECAST
BY THE RUC/HRRR TO COME ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE CONVECTIVE SIGNAL WEAKENS
SOMEWHAT...BUT STILL THINK ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDER SHOULD BE
SEEN AT LEAST CLOSE IF NOT INTO THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. THERE
COULD BE SOME SMALL HAIL WITH THIS GIVEN THE LOW WET BULB ZERO
VALUES. THIS SHOULD EXIT BY 10 AM TO NOON...WITH LINGERING CLOUDS
BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREA INTO EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON.
COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL UNDERCUT THE MORNING
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS IN THE SOUTH...HELPING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES
NEARLY STEADY OR EVEN CONTINUING TO FALL THROUGH MID-MORNING.
CLEARING BY LATE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
REBOUND...BUT PROBABLY ONLY INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S. CONFIDENCE
ON THE DEGREE OF RECOVERY IS SOMEWHAT LOW DUE TO WEIGHING THE COLD
AIR ADVECTION/CLOUD IMPACT THIS MORNING.
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER MN EARLY THIS MORNING WILL PASS OVER THE
GREAT LAKES AND BE RE-ENFORCED BY A STRONG JET MAX TO THE
NORTHWEST. THIS WILL HELP TO PUSH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT SOUTH
THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT. THIS LOOKS TO
REALLY SEND DEW POINTS DOWN AND POTENTIALLY TEMPERATURES FURTHER
TOO. THE COLD POCKET ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHOULD DEVELOP SOME
STRATOCU TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS THAT MAY
POTENTIALLY LINGER INTO FRI MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY...WITH
RETURN FLOW THEN SETTING UP FOR SATURDAY...WHICH SHOULD BE A
FAIRLY PLEASANT AND SUNNY DAY. THE WELL-ORGANIZED CLOSED UPPER
LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL DRIFT GRADUALLY NORTHEAST ON
SATURDAY...THEN BEGIN TO BECOME MORE NEUTRAL TO NEGATIVELY TILED
AS IT LIFTS OVER OUR AREA ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THIS IS FAIRLY SHORT IN
DURATION...BUT IT CERTAINLY LOOKS TO BE DEEP ENOUGH AND WITHIN
STRONG ENOUGH ISENTROPIC LIFT FOR FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RAIN/SHOWERS
ON SUNDAY. HAVE CONTINUED TO INCH UP POPS. WHILE THE SYSTEM DRY
SLOT EVOLVES RIGHT INTO THE AREA...ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS VERY
MARGINAL DUE TO THE LIMITED DEGREE OF THETA-E RETURN. SO CONTINUE
WITH NO THUNDER MENTION...BUT COULD SEE SOME GUSTIER SHOWERS
POTENTIALLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVE IF THE GFS/EC PAN OUT AS IS.
SO HAVE MENTIONED MORE OF A SHOWER WORDING DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVE BECAUSE OF THIS. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY COULD ENCOMPASS A
FAIRLY LARGE RANGE THANKS TO THE IMPACTS OF THE LIKELY RAIN. WITH
CONFIDENCE INCREASING IN RAIN...HAVE CONTINUED NOT TO INCREASE
TEMPERATURES DESPITE SOME GUIDANCE INDICATING WARMER IN SUCCESSIVE
RUNS.
THE GFS REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH HAVING ANOTHER UPPER
WAVE...ACTUALLY ALMOST A PART OF THE FIRST ONE...MOVE NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE
08.00 EC TRENDED BACK AWAY FROM THIS...BUT HAS BEEN THE LESS
CONSISTENT MODEL. HAVE KEPT POPS ON TUE MAINLY IN SOUTHEAST AREAS
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS WAVE. WHILE THIS COULD HAVE IMPACTS ON
TEMPERATURES ON TUE...A LOW-LEVEL THERMAL TONGUE IS PROJECTED TO
BE KNOCKING ON OUR DOOR FROM THE WEST AND SHOULD PROVIDE FOR ABOVE
TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE STRONGEST SIGNAL FOR VERY
MILD READINGS AND A DRY ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN IS ON WED AT THIS TIME.
AS PREVIOUS SHIFT DID...LEAN THE FORECAST TOWARDS THE BETTER
PERFORMING EC IN THOSE TYPE OF REGIMES. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S
INTO THE 70S ARE CURRENTLY WHAT THIS BLENDED APPROACH PRODUCES
AND SEEMS TO MAKE SENSE. WHILE A FRONT IS PRESENTLY FORECAST TO
MOVE THROUGH SOMETIME LATER WED INTO THU OF NEXT WEEK...IT WOULD
SEEM LIKELY WITH THE PATTERN THAT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.
MTF
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...
* OCCASIONAL W/NW GUSTS TO 27KT...DIMINISHING TO ARND 12KT AFT
23Z.
* PSBL BKN CIGS AT 5KFT AGL BTWN 04-08Z.
BEACHLER
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 20Z...
VISIBLE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE BULK OF THE CLOUD COVER
HAS DRIFTED SOUTHEAST OF MOST NORTHERN IL/NORTHWEST IN
AIRFIELDS...WITH JUST A FEW LOCATIONS STILL REPORTING BKN CIGS.
HOWEVER...THIS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTN. EXPECT
BY 23Z CIGS TO BE APPROACH FEW COVERAGE BUT REMAIN VFR. GUSTY
WINDS HAVE ALSO COME UP HIGHER TO ARND 25 TO 28 KT AT
TIMES...DIMINISHING TO ARND 12 KT AFTER SUNSET.
PREV DISCUSSION FROM 18Z...
VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS ABUNDANT CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN IL
STRETCHING NORTHEAST THROUGH INDIANA AND LOWER MICHIGAN. NORTHERN
IL/NORTHWEST IN ARE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS CLOUD COVER...WITH
A FEW POCKETS OF SCT/BKN CIGS ARND 3KFT AGL NOTED. THE GENERAL
TREND HAS BEEN FOR IMPROVING CONDS TO VFR...AND MOST SFC OBS
SUPPORT THIS AS WELL. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST CIGS WILL
IMPROVE TO FEW/SCT CONDS LATER THIS EVENING WITH WINDS STEADILY
DIMINISHING AS WELL TO NW/W WINDS ARND 10-12KT. ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM MAY BRING BKN CIGS BACK TO FAR NORTHEAST IL/NORTHWEST
IN AIRFIELDS BTWN 04-08Z. THEN HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN
FROM THE WEST AND SHOULD PROVIDE VFR CONDS THRU MUCH OF FRI. A FEW
POCKETS OF DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRI
MIDDAY...HOWEVER SHUD REMAIN VFR CONDS.
BEACHLER
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR/SPEED FORECAST.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS FORECAST THRU 23Z.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS AFT 23Z.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.
BEACHLER
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...VFR.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN. MVFR POSSIBLE.
TUESDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN AND MVFR EARLY...OTHERWISE VFR.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
KREIN
&&
.MARINE...
227 PM CST
A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE LAKES OVERNIGHT HAS SINCE
SLIPPED INTO THE THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. CLEAR SKIES WITH
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION HAVE ALLOWED WINDS TO
INCREASE AND GUST THIS AFTERNOON. ORIGINALLY INHERITED A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE INDY SHORES STARTING TONIGHT...BUT WITH THE
STRONG WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...DECIDED TO PULL THE START TIME UP AND
ALSO INCLUDE THE ILLINOIS SHORES AS WHRI2 WAS GUSTING TO 27 KTS. DO
EXPECT A LITTLE LULL IN THE WINDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING HOURS...BUT WITH ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHING
OVERNIGHT...EXPECT WINDS TO KICK BACK UP AND BRING ALL OF THE
NEARSHORE WATERS TO CRITERIA JUST FROM WINDS ALONE THIS EVENING.
WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE TO GALE FORCE THIS EVENING AND INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE AS A DEEPENING
LOW PRESSURE CORE SLIDES SOUTHEAST FROM WESTERN ONTARIO AND TO JUST
EAST OF MICHIGAN. WINDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE TO ABOVE 35 KTS FOR
MUCH OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE FROM THE 09Z TO ROUGHLY 12 TO
13Z HOUR. DUE TO THE INCREASED LIKELIHOOD OF GALES...DID HOIST A
GALE WARNING FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS THE LOW PULLS OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST...WINDS WILL DECREASE ACROSS THE ILLINOIS SHORES AND ALL
ADVISORY CRITERIA SHOULD ABATE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND THEN INTO
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS FOR INDIANA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SLIDE
BACK ACROSS THE LAKES INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND. STRONG SOUTH
WINDS WILL AGAIN RETURN ACROSS THE LAKE SATURDAY...WITH THE NORTHERN
TIER OF THE LAKE AGAIN APPROACHING GALES MID MORNING AND CONTINUING
OVERNIGHT.
SHEA
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-LMZ567-
LMZ868...3 AM FRIDAY TO 10 AM FRIDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745...6 PM THURSDAY TO 9
PM FRIDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742...6 PM THURSDAY TO 4
PM FRIDAY.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
226 PM CST THU MAR 8 2012
.DISCUSSION...
1008 AM CST
NO REAL ISSUES LATE THIS MORNING OR GOING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...WITH MINOR CHANGES TO POP/WX GRIDS AS RAIN HAS EXITED
THE CWA...AND SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD TRENDS TODAY.
SURFACE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT HAVE SINCE SHIFTED
EAST/SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA THIS MORNING...AS HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS
EAST WITH PRESSURE RISES NOTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THIS
HOUR. ALTHOUGH...MAIN RIDGE AXIS REMAINS TO THE WEST OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND APPEARS AS IF IT WILL REMAIN SITUATED TO THE
WEST WITH A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT TO REMAIN OVER THE CWA
TODAY. THIS WILL OCCUR AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS
OVERHEAD...WITH A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST...WHICH WILL PLAY A FACTOR WITH CLOUD
TRENDS TODAY. LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST
THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA THROUGH MID DAY WITH A
PARTIAL CLEARING TREND EXPECTED THROUGH MID DAY. ALTHOUGH...WITH
COOLER AIR MOVING THROUGH...STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND
THE APPROACHING WAVE...A REDEVELOPMENT OF CU/STRATO CU WILL HELP
TO PROVIDE WHATEVER CLEAR SKIES ARE IN PLACE TO BECOME MORE PARTLY
SUNNY/CLOUDY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS DIURNAL CU WILL THEN DIMINISH
WITH A CLEARING TREND EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING.
EVENING SKIES GRIDS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED FOR THE AFTERNOON
ISSUANCE...AS A QUICKLY APPROACHING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY
PROVIDE ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER LATE THIS EVENING BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD EARLY FRIDAY.
RODRIGUEZ
//PREV DISCUSSION...
307 AM CST
THE IMMEDIATE CONCERNS WITH THE FORECAST ARE WITH THE FALLING
TEMPERATURES...AS WELL AS CONTINUED POST FRONTAL SHOWERS AND EVEN
SOME THUNDER CHANCES THIS MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA. THEN ATTENTION TURNS TO RAIN POTENTIAL SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY
THE TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK AS A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP...OR RE-WARM UP
WE SHOULD SAY...LOOKS LIKELY.
FOR THE CURRENT SITUATION...A VERY WELL-DEFINED COLD FRONT IS
CLEARING THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. ROBUSTLY WARM AIR
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE HELPED CHICAGO BREAK THEIR RECORD WARM LOW
FOR YESTERDAY /54 DEGREES/. THE COMBINATION OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
AND RAIN TOOK TEMPERATURES DOWN AS MUCH AS 14 DEGREES IN ONE
HOUR AT SOME LOCATIONS. A GOOD PART OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
POST-FRONTAL...ASSOCIATED WITH ELEVATED MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
STRONG CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. ITS A GOOD THING A LOT OF
THIS IS POST FRONTAL...AS MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT
COULD HAVE POTENTIALLY STEERED DOWN SOME OF THE 55 KT FLOW AT 1500
FT SEEN ON THE KLOT DOPPLER VELOCITY FOR HOURS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
THE NORTHWEST WIND SPEEDS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE ACTUALLY QUITE A
BIT LOWER...GUSTING AT TIMES TO NEAR 25 MPH. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE
TO BE THE CASE INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
AN INTERESTING AREA OF ELEVATED CONVECTION IS SEEN IN NORTHERN MO
AS OF 300 AM HAVING ORIGINATED IN KS WITH A SHORT WAVE PER WATER
VAPOR ANALYSIS. THIS AREA CONTINUES TO GROW UPSCALE EAST
NORTHEAST...WELL BEHIND THE FRONT. RUC AND NAM CROSS SECTIONS
THROUGH THIS AREA SHOW STRONG MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND A VERY
DEEP LAYER /AROUND 200 MB/ OF NEGATIVE EPV AND SLIGHTLY
DECREASING THETA-E...INDICATING CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY PRESENT.
THE RUC FORECAST FOR THE FORCING AND INSTABILITY...AND HRRR
PROJECTION OF REFLECTIVITY...SEEMS TO HAVE A STRONG HANDLE ON
THIS...WHILE MOST OTHER GUIDANCE DOES NOT. THIS AREA IS FORECAST
BY THE RUC/HRRR TO COME ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE CONVECTIVE SIGNAL WEAKENS
SOMEWHAT...BUT STILL THINK ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDER SHOULD BE
SEEN AT LEAST CLOSE IF NOT INTO THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. THERE
COULD BE SOME SMALL HAIL WITH THIS GIVEN THE LOW WET BULB ZERO
VALUES. THIS SHOULD EXIT BY 10 AM TO NOON...WITH LINGERING CLOUDS
BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREA INTO EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON.
COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL UNDERCUT THE MORNING
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS IN THE SOUTH...HELPING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES
NEARLY STEADY OR EVEN CONTINUING TO FALL THROUGH MID-MORNING.
CLEARING BY LATE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
REBOUND...BUT PROBABLY ONLY INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S. CONFIDENCE
ON THE DEGREE OF RECOVERY IS SOMEWHAT LOW DUE TO WEIGHING THE COLD
AIR ADVECTION/CLOUD IMPACT THIS MORNING.
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER MN EARLY THIS MORNING WILL PASS OVER THE
GREAT LAKES AND BE RE-ENFORCED BY A STRONG JET MAX TO THE
NORTHWEST. THIS WILL HELP TO PUSH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT SOUTH
THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT. THIS LOOKS TO
REALLY SEND DEW POINTS DOWN AND POTENTIALLY TEMPERATURES FURTHER
TOO. THE COLD POCKET ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHOULD DEVELOP SOME
STRATOCU TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS THAT MAY
POTENTIALLY LINGER INTO FRI MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY...WITH
RETURN FLOW THEN SETTING UP FOR SATURDAY...WHICH SHOULD BE A
FAIRLY PLEASANT AND SUNNY DAY. THE WELL-ORGANIZED CLOSED UPPER
LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL DRIFT GRADUALLY NORTHEAST ON
SATURDAY...THEN BEGIN TO BECOME MORE NEUTRAL TO NEGATIVELY TILED
AS IT LIFTS OVER OUR AREA ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THIS IS FAIRLY SHORT IN
DURATION...BUT IT CERTAINLY LOOKS TO BE DEEP ENOUGH AND WITHIN
STRONG ENOUGH ISENTROPIC LIFT FOR FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RAIN/SHOWERS
ON SUNDAY. HAVE CONTINUED TO INCH UP POPS. WHILE THE SYSTEM DRY
SLOT EVOLVES RIGHT INTO THE AREA...ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS VERY
MARGINAL DUE TO THE LIMITED DEGREE OF THETA-E RETURN. SO CONTINUE
WITH NO THUNDER MENTION...BUT COULD SEE SOME GUSTIER SHOWERS
POTENTIALLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVE IF THE GFS/EC PAN OUT AS IS.
SO HAVE MENTIONED MORE OF A SHOWER WORDING DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVE BECAUSE OF THIS. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY COULD ENCOMPASS A
FAIRLY LARGE RANGE THANKS TO THE IMPACTS OF THE LIKELY RAIN. WITH
CONFIDENCE INCREASING IN RAIN...HAVE CONTINUED NOT TO INCREASE
TEMPERATURES DESPITE SOME GUIDANCE INDICATING WARMER IN SUCCESSIVE
RUNS.
THE GFS REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH HAVING ANOTHER UPPER
WAVE...ACTUALLY ALMOST A PART OF THE FIRST ONE...MOVE NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE
08.00 EC TRENDED BACK AWAY FROM THIS...BUT HAS BEEN THE LESS
CONSISTENT MODEL. HAVE KEPT POPS ON TUE MAINLY IN SOUTHEAST AREAS
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS WAVE. WHILE THIS COULD HAVE IMPACTS ON
TEMPERATURES ON TUE...A LOW-LEVEL THERMAL TONGUE IS PROJECTED TO
BE KNOCKING ON OUR DOOR FROM THE WEST AND SHOULD PROVIDE FOR ABOVE
TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE STRONGEST SIGNAL FOR VERY
MILD READINGS AND A DRY ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN IS ON WED AT THIS TIME.
AS PREVIOUS SHIFT DID...LEAN THE FORECAST TOWARDS THE BETTER
PERFORMING EC IN THOSE TYPE OF REGIMES. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S
INTO THE 70S ARE CURRENTLY WHAT THIS BLENDED APPROACH PRODUCES
AND SEEMS TO MAKE SENSE. WHILE A FRONT IS PRESENTLY FORECAST TO
MOVE THROUGH SOMETIME LATER WED INTO THU OF NEXT WEEK...IT WOULD
SEEM LIKELY WITH THE PATTERN THAT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.
MTF
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...
* OCCASIONAL W/NW GUSTS TO 27KT...DIMINISHING TO ARND 12KT AFT
23Z.
* PSBL BKN CIGS AT 5KFT AGL BTWN 04-08Z.
BEACHLER
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 20Z...
VISIBLE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE BULK OF THE CLOUD COVER
HAS DRIFTED SOUTHEAST OF MOST NORTHERN IL/NORTHWEST IN
AIRFIELDS...WITH JUST A FEW LOCATIONS STILL REPORTING BKN CIGS.
HOWEVER...THIS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTN. EXPECT
BY 23Z CIGS TO BE APPROACH FEW COVERAGE BUT REMAIN VFR. GUSTY
WINDS HAVE ALSO COME UP HIGHER TO ARND 25 TO 28 KT AT
TIMES...DIMINISHING TO ARND 12 KT AFTER SUNSET.
PREV DISCUSSION FROM 18Z...
VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS ABUNDANT CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN IL
STRETCHING NORTHEAST THROUGH INDIANA AND LOWER MICHIGAN. NORTHERN
IL/NORTHWEST IN ARE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS CLOUD COVER...WITH
A FEW POCKETS OF SCT/BKN CIGS ARND 3KFT AGL NOTED. THE GENERAL
TREND HAS BEEN FOR IMPROVING CONDS TO VFR...AND MOST SFC OBS
SUPPORT THIS AS WELL. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST CIGS WILL
IMPROVE TO FEW/SCT CONDS LATER THIS EVENING WITH WINDS STEADILY
DIMINISHING AS WELL TO NW/W WINDS ARND 10-12KT. ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM MAY BRING BKN CIGS BACK TO FAR NORTHEAST IL/NORTHWEST
IN AIRFIELDS BTWN 04-08Z. THEN HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN
FROM THE WEST AND SHOULD PROVIDE VFR CONDS THRU MUCH OF FRI. A FEW
POCKETS OF DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRI
MIDDAY...HOWEVER SHUD REMAIN VFR CONDS.
BEACHLER
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR/SPEED FORECAST.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS FORECAST THRU 23Z.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS AFT 23Z.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.
BEACHLER
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...VFR.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN. MVFR POSSIBLE.
TUESDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN AND MVFR EARLY...OTHERWISE VFR.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
KREIN
&&
.MARINE...
325 AM CST
SOUTHWEST GALES ARE FINALLY COMING TO AN END OVER THE LAKE! THE
COLD FRONT IS ALMOST THROUGH LAKE MICHIGAN...WITH THE
SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE LAKE STILL AWAITING ITS ARRIVAL. WINDS
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT HAVE DIMINISHED AND TURNED WEST TO
NORTHWEST. THE ABRUPT CHANGE IN WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION HAS
HELPED WAVES QUICKLY DIMINISH IN THE NEAR SHORE ZONES...THEREFORE
NOT ISSUING A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THIS MORNING. WINDS MAY
GUST TO 25 KT FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT NOT LONG ENOUGH
TO WARRANT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.
A WEAKENING LOW MOVES SOUTH OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR WEST MOVES INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. AS THE TWO
SYSTEMS MOVE CLOSER TOGETHER THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
OVERHEAD. THAT COMBINED WITH STRONG PRESSURE RISES WILL CREATE
NORTHWEST GALES OVER THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE LAKE LATE
TONIGHT. GALES WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH FRIDAY MORNING AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE IMMEDIATE AREA. THE HIGH WILL PASS OVER
THE LAKE LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING.
YET ANOTHER ROUND OF GALES IS POSSIBLE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH
PRESSURE SATURDAY MORNING. LOW END GALES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
CENTRAL THIRD OF THE LAKE...WITH GALES UP TO 40 KT LIKELY OVER THE
NORTHERN THIRD OF THE LAKE. NOT ANTICIPATING GALES OVER THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE LAKE. GALES BEGIN TO DIMINISH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH PRESSURE PULLS AWAY TO THE EAST...HOWEVER
GALES OVER THE NORTHERN END OF THE LAKE LOOK LIKE THEY WILL PERSIST
INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
MODELS HAVE SIGNIFICANT DISCREPANCIES IN TIMING AND THE OVERALL
PATTERN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST...SO WHILE NO GALES ARE
FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
JEE
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745...3 AM FRIDAY TO 9
PM FRIDAY.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1152 AM CST THU MAR 8 2012
.DISCUSSION...
1008 AM CST
NO REAL ISSUES LATE THIS MORNING OR GOING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...WITH MINOR CHANGES TO POP/WX GRIDS AS RAIN HAS EXITED
THE CWA...AND SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD TRENDS TODAY.
SURFACE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT HAVE SINCE SHIFTED
EAST/SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA THIS MORNING...AS HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS
EAST WITH PRESSURE RISES NOTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THIS
HOUR. ALTHOUGH...MAIN RIDGE AXIS REMAINS TO THE WEST OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND APPEARS AS IF IT WILL REMAIN SITUATED TO THE
WEST WITH A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT TO REMAIN OVER THE CWA
TODAY. THIS WILL OCCUR AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS
OVERHEAD...WITH A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST...WHICH WILL PLAY A FACTOR WITH CLOUD
TRENDS TODAY. LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST
THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA THROUGH MID DAY WITH A
PARTIAL CLEARING TREND EXPECTED THROUGH MID DAY. ALTHOUGH...WITH
COOLER AIR MOVING THROUGH...STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND
THE APPROACHING WAVE...A REDEVELOPMENT OF CU/STRATO CU WILL HELP
TO PROVIDE WHATEVER CLEAR SKIES ARE IN PLACE TO BECOME MORE PARTLY
SUNNY/CLOUDY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS DIURNAL CU WILL THEN DIMINISH
WITH A CLEARING TREND EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING.
EVENING SKIES GRIDS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED FOR THE AFTERNOON
ISSUANCE...AS A QUICKLY APPROACHING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY
PROVIDE ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER LATE THIS EVENING BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD EARLY FRIDAY.
RODRIGUEZ
//PREV DISCUSSION...
307 AM CST
THE IMMEDIATE CONCERNS WITH THE FORECAST ARE WITH THE FALLING
TEMPERATURES...AS WELL AS CONTINUED POST FRONTAL SHOWERS AND EVEN
SOME THUNDER CHANCES THIS MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA. THEN ATTENTION TURNS TO RAIN POTENTIAL SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY
THE TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK AS A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP...OR RE-WARM UP
WE SHOULD SAY...LOOKS LIKELY.
FOR THE CURRENT SITUATION...A VERY WELL-DEFINED COLD FRONT IS
CLEARING THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. ROBUSTLY WARM AIR
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE HELPED CHICAGO BREAK THEIR RECORD WARM LOW
FOR YESTERDAY /54 DEGREES/. THE COMBINATION OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
AND RAIN TOOK TEMPERATURES DOWN AS MUCH AS 14 DEGREES IN ONE
HOUR AT SOME LOCATIONS. A GOOD PART OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
POST-FRONTAL...ASSOCIATED WITH ELEVATED MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
STRONG CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. ITS A GOOD THING A LOT OF
THIS IS POST FRONTAL...AS MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT
COULD HAVE POTENTIALLY STEERED DOWN SOME OF THE 55 KT FLOW AT 1500
FT SEEN ON THE KLOT DOPPLER VELOCITY FOR HOURS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
THE NORTHWEST WIND SPEEDS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE ACTUALLY QUITE A
BIT LOWER...GUSTING AT TIMES TO NEAR 25 MPH. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE
TO BE THE CASE INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
AN INTERESTING AREA OF ELEVATED CONVECTION IS SEEN IN NORTHERN MO
AS OF 300 AM HAVING ORIGINATED IN KS WITH A SHORT WAVE PER WATER
VAPOR ANALYSIS. THIS AREA CONTINUES TO GROW UPSCALE EAST
NORTHEAST...WELL BEHIND THE FRONT. RUC AND NAM CROSS SECTIONS
THROUGH THIS AREA SHOW STRONG MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND A VERY
DEEP LAYER /AROUND 200 MB/ OF NEGATIVE EPV AND SLIGHTLY
DECREASING THETA-E...INDICATING CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY PRESENT.
THE RUC FORECAST FOR THE FORCING AND INSTABILITY...AND HRRR
PROJECTION OF REFLECTIVITY...SEEMS TO HAVE A STRONG HANDLE ON
THIS...WHILE MOST OTHER GUIDANCE DOES NOT. THIS AREA IS FORECAST
BY THE RUC/HRRR TO COME ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE CONVECTIVE SIGNAL WEAKENS
SOMEWHAT...BUT STILL THINK ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDER SHOULD BE
SEEN AT LEAST CLOSE IF NOT INTO THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. THERE
COULD BE SOME SMALL HAIL WITH THIS GIVEN THE LOW WET BULB ZERO
VALUES. THIS SHOULD EXIT BY 10 AM TO NOON...WITH LINGERING CLOUDS
BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREA INTO EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON.
COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL UNDERCUT THE MORNING
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS IN THE SOUTH...HELPING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES
NEARLY STEADY OR EVEN CONTINUING TO FALL THROUGH MID-MORNING.
CLEARING BY LATE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
REBOUND...BUT PROBABLY ONLY INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S. CONFIDENCE
ON THE DEGREE OF RECOVERY IS SOMEWHAT LOW DUE TO WEIGHING THE COLD
AIR ADVECTION/CLOUD IMPACT THIS MORNING.
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER MN EARLY THIS MORNING WILL PASS OVER THE
GREAT LAKES AND BE RE-ENFORCED BY A STRONG JET MAX TO THE
NORTHWEST. THIS WILL HELP TO PUSH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT SOUTH
THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT. THIS LOOKS TO
REALLY SEND DEW POINTS DOWN AND POTENTIALLY TEMPERATURES FURTHER
TOO. THE COLD POCKET ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHOULD DEVELOP SOME
STRATOCU TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS THAT MAY
POTENTIALLY LINGER INTO FRI MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY...WITH
RETURN FLOW THEN SETTING UP FOR SATURDAY...WHICH SHOULD BE A
FAIRLY PLEASANT AND SUNNY DAY. THE WELL-ORGANIZED CLOSED UPPER
LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL DRIFT GRADUALLY NORTHEAST ON
SATURDAY...THEN BEGIN TO BECOME MORE NEUTRAL TO NEGATIVELY TILED
AS IT LIFTS OVER OUR AREA ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THIS IS FAIRLY SHORT IN
DURATION...BUT IT CERTAINLY LOOKS TO BE DEEP ENOUGH AND WITHIN
STRONG ENOUGH ISENTROPIC LIFT FOR FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RAIN/SHOWERS
ON SUNDAY. HAVE CONTINUED TO INCH UP POPS. WHILE THE SYSTEM DRY
SLOT EVOLVES RIGHT INTO THE AREA...ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS VERY
MARGINAL DUE TO THE LIMITED DEGREE OF THETA-E RETURN. SO CONTINUE
WITH NO THUNDER MENTION...BUT COULD SEE SOME GUSTIER SHOWERS
POTENTIALLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVE IF THE GFS/EC PAN OUT AS IS.
SO HAVE MENTIONED MORE OF A SHOWER WORDING DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVE BECAUSE OF THIS. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY COULD ENCOMPASS A
FAIRLY LARGE RANGE THANKS TO THE IMPACTS OF THE LIKELY RAIN. WITH
CONFIDENCE INCREASING IN RAIN...HAVE CONTINUED NOT TO INCREASE
TEMPERATURES DESPITE SOME GUIDANCE INDICATING WARMER IN SUCCESSIVE
RUNS.
THE GFS REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH HAVING ANOTHER UPPER
WAVE...ACTUALLY ALMOST A PART OF THE FIRST ONE...MOVE NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE
08.00 EC TRENDED BACK AWAY FROM THIS...BUT HAS BEEN THE LESS
CONSISTENT MODEL. HAVE KEPT POPS ON TUE MAINLY IN SOUTHEAST AREAS
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS WAVE. WHILE THIS COULD HAVE IMPACTS ON
TEMPERATURES ON TUE...A LOW-LEVEL THERMAL TONGUE IS PROJECTED TO
BE KNOCKING ON OUR DOOR FROM THE WEST AND SHOULD PROVIDE FOR ABOVE
TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE STRONGEST SIGNAL FOR VERY
MILD READINGS AND A DRY ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN IS ON WED AT THIS TIME.
AS PREVIOUS SHIFT DID...LEAN THE FORECAST TOWARDS THE BETTER
PERFORMING EC IN THOSE TYPE OF REGIMES. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S
INTO THE 70S ARE CURRENTLY WHAT THIS BLENDED APPROACH PRODUCES
AND SEEMS TO MAKE SENSE. WHILE A FRONT IS PRESENTLY FORECAST TO
MOVE THROUGH SOMETIME LATER WED INTO THU OF NEXT WEEK...IT WOULD
SEEM LIKELY WITH THE PATTERN THAT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.
MTF
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* PATCHY BKN CIGS ARND 3000-3400FT AGL...LIFTING BY 23Z.
* OCCASIONAL W/NW GUSTS TO 24KT...DIMINISHING TO ARND 12KT AFT
23Z.
* PSBL BKN CIGS AT 5KFT AGL BTWN 04-08Z.
BEACHLER
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS ABUNDANT CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN IL
STRETCHING NORTHEAST THROUGH INDIANA AND LOWER MICHIGAN. NORTHERN
IL/NORTHWEST IN ARE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS CLOUD COVER...WITH
A FEW POCKETS OF SCT/BKN CIGS ARND 3KFT AGL NOTED. THE GENERAL
TREND HAS BEEN FOR IMPROVING CONDS TO VFR...AND MOST SFC OBS
SUPPORT THIS AS WELL. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST CIGS WILL
IMPROVE TO FEW/SCT CONDS LATER THIS EVENING WITH WINDS STEADILY
DIMINISHING AS WELL TO NW/W WINDS ARND 10-12KT. ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM MAY BRING BKN CIGS BACK TO FAR NORTHEAST IL/NORTHWEST
IN AIRFIELDS BTWN 04-08Z. THEN HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN
FROM THE WEST AND SHOULD PROVIDE VFR CONDS THRU MUCH OF FRI. A FEW
POCKETS OF DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRI
MIDDAY...HOWEVER SHUD REMAIN VFR CONDS.
BEACHLER
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR/SPEED FORECAST.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS FORECAST THRU 23Z.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS AFT 23Z.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.
BEACHLER
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...VFR.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN. MVFR POSSIBLE.
TUESDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN AND MVFR EARLY...OTHERWISE VFR.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
KREIN
&&
.MARINE...
325 AM CST
SOUTHWEST GALES ARE FINALLY COMING TO AN END OVER THE LAKE! THE
COLD FRONT IS ALMOST THROUGH LAKE MICHIGAN...WITH THE
SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE LAKE STILL AWAITING ITS ARRIVAL. WINDS
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT HAVE DIMINISHED AND TURNED WEST TO
NORTHWEST. THE ABRUPT CHANGE IN WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION HAS
HELPED WAVES QUICKLY DIMINISH IN THE NEAR SHORE ZONES...THEREFORE
NOT ISSUING A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THIS MORNING. WINDS MAY
GUST TO 25 KT FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT NOT LONG ENOUGH
TO WARRANT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.
A WEAKENING LOW MOVES SOUTH OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR WEST MOVES INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. AS THE TWO
SYSTEMS MOVE CLOSER TOGETHER THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
OVERHEAD. THAT COMBINED WITH STRONG PRESSURE RISES WILL CREATE
NORTHWEST GALES OVER THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE LAKE LATE
TONIGHT. GALES WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH FRIDAY MORNING AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE IMMEDIATE AREA. THE HIGH WILL PASS OVER
THE LAKE LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING.
YET ANOTHER ROUND OF GALES IS POSSIBLE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH
PRESSURE SATURDAY MORNING. LOW END GALES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
CENTRAL THIRD OF THE LAKE...WITH GALES UP TO 40 KT LIKELY OVER THE
NORTHERN THIRD OF THE LAKE. NOT ANTICIPATING GALES OVER THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE LAKE. GALES BEGIN TO DIMINISH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH PRESSURE PULLS AWAY TO THE EAST...HOWEVER
GALES OVER THE NORTHERN END OF THE LAKE LOOK LIKE THEY WILL PERSIST
INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
MODELS HAVE SIGNIFICANT DISCREPANCIES IN TIMING AND THE OVERALL
PATTERN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST...SO WHILE NO GALES ARE
FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
JEE
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745...3 AM FRIDAY TO 9
PM FRIDAY.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1040 AM CST THU MAR 8 2012
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1040 AM CST THU MAR 8 2012
COLD FRONT HAS SETTLED SOUTHWARD INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THIS
MORNING...TAKING THE BULK OF THE RAIN WITH IT. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
LINGER TO THE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...WITH THE LATEST RADAR MOSAIC
SHOWING THE PRECIP MAINLY LOCATED ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LITCHFIELD
TO PARIS LINE. MID-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE CURRENTLY EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA/NORTHERN IOWA WILL TRACK E/SE
ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON...GRADUALLY PUSHING THE
FRONT AND PRECIP EVEN FURTHER SOUTH. HAVE UPDATED FORECAST TO
CARRY SCATTERED SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE I-72 CORRIDOR THROUGH
MID-AFTERNOON...THEN WENT DRY ACROSS THE BOARD AFTER 21Z. AS WAVE
MOVES BY TO THE NORTH...DRIER AIR WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES TO THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN KILX CWA AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...WITH
OVERCAST CONDITIONS PERSISTING ALONG/SOUTH OF I-70. ZONE UPDATE
WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.
BARNES
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 516 AM CST THU MAR 8 2012
COLD FRONT HAS PASSED THROUGH THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING...WITH A
BRIEF LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION. SHOWERS WILL RAMP UP AGAIN EARLY AS
A SHORTWAVE MOVES FROM NORTHERN MO ACROSS CENTRAL IL. SINCE
LIGHTNING HAS DECREASED IN THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...WILL JUST HAVE
SOME VCTS IN THE MORNING. PRECIPITATION MAY MIX WITH LIGHT SNOW OR
LIGHT SLEET AT PIA AS TEMPERATURES FALL THROUGH THE 30S ON THE BACK
EDGE OF THE RAIN SHIELD. THE LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR MODEL HAS A
DECENT HANDLE ON THE CURRENT WEATHER...SO WILL FOLLOW THIS AND
EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO END AT PIA 15Z-16Z...AND AT CMI AROUND 18Z.
CEILINGS/FLIGHT RULES VARY WIDELY OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING...BUT
EXPECT GENERAL MVFR CONDITIONS WITH POSSIBLY IFR IN HEAVIER SHOWERS.
OVERALL EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER
PRECIPITATION ENDS...THEN MAINLY CLEAR SKIES BY 00Z FRI. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL STILL BE ON THE STRONG SIDE TODAY WITH 18-22 KT SUSTAINED
WITH GUSTS ABOVE 30 KT AT TIMES. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH AND BACK
TO WESTERLY AFTER 00Z FRI.
04
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 314 AM CST THU MAR 8 2012
COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING WITH SOME
SHOWERS OUT AHEAD AND ALONG. A SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
OCCASIONAL THUNDER PUSHING UP JUST BEHIND THE SFC BOUNDARY AS A WAVE
MOVES NE INTO THE REGION. MORNING PRECIP AND HOW LONG IT WILL IMPACT
THE REGION IS THE FIRST ISSUE...ALONG WITH THE HOURLY TEMPS THIS
MORNING AS COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA. BEYOND THAT...THE
FORECAST HAS FEW CHANGES AS THE MODELS STILL WORK OUT HOW THE MAIN
UPPER LOW OVER THE SWRN CONUS IS GOING TO MOVE OUT AND ACROSS THE
ERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. STILL MORE IN FAVOR OF THE ECMWF...AND HAVE
TRIED TO MITIGATE THE GFS IMPACTS IN THE EXTENDED AS MUCH AS
COLLABORATION AND CONSENSUS WOULD ALLOW. THAT BEING SAID...THE GFS
SOLUTION OF SPLITTING THE WAVE INTO SEVERAL SMALLER WAVES IS SLOWLY
TURNING INTO A MORE ECMWF/NAM SOLUTION. BIGGEST IMPACT FOR THIS
PARTICULAR DISCREPANCY WILL BE ON MON NIGHT/TUESDAY WHERE THE
CONFIDENCE IN THE GOING FORECAST DECREASES.
SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TOMORROW...
HIGH TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO BE MET EARLY AS THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY
WILL BE COOLER WITH THE FRONT PASSING THROUGH THIS MORNING. PRECIP
WILL CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDER THIS MORNING WITH SOME
STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE FLOW JUST BEHIND THE SFC BOUNDARY. POPS DECREASING NW TO
SE AFTER 18Z. TEMPS A BIT COOLER TONIGHT. CONCERN THAT GUIDANCE AND
GOING FORECAST ARE NOT QUITE COOL ENOUGH SHOULD THE SKIES CLEAR A
BIT MORE QUICKLY THAN THE MODEL RH PROFILES ARE HINTING. RATHER DRY
AIR AVAILABLE BEHIND THIS WAVE. TOMORROW...TEMPS COOLER THAN LAST
COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT STILL A BIT WARMER THAN SEASONABLE...UPPER
40S/NEAR 50 WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.
LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
WINDS COME AROUND TO MORE SOUTHERLY SATURDAY MORNING...AND ASSISTS
IN A WARM UP WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EARLY. HOWEVER...SOME OF THIS
WARM UP WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A DEVELOPING SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE
SRN PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST. MODELS HAVE HAD QUITE THE HISTORY WITH
THIS SYSTEM...AND MANY MANY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS. FOR NOW...THE EC IS
PUSHING THE SYSTEM THROUGH...RATHER DIFFUSE AS AN OPEN WAVE...AND
WEAKENING AND LESSENING THE QPF TRENDS IN THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS.
THE GFS IS ALSO EASING A BIT...BUT DELIVERING THE PRECIP IN A ONE
TWO PUNCH FOR SAT NIGHT/SUN AND MON NIGHT/TUES. FOR NOW...BEST
CHANCES FOR POPS ARE IN THE FORECAST WITH SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
FROM TUES NIGHT THROUGH WED...KEEPING THE FORECAST DRY AT THIS POINT
AS THE MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH A BIT OF FEEDBACK IN WEAK SWRLY
FLOW.
HJS
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1014 AM CST THU MAR 8 2012
.DISCUSSION...
1008 AM CST
NO REAL ISSUES LATE THIS MORNING OR GOING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...WITH MINOR CHANGES TO POP/WX GRIDS AS RAIN HAS EXITED
THE CWA...AND SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD TRENDS TODAY.
SURFACE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT HAVE SINCE SHIFTED
EAST/SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA THIS MORNING...AS HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS
EAST WITH PRESSURE RISES NOTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THIS
HOUR. ALTHOUGH...MAIN RIDGE AXIS REMAINS TO THE WEST OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND APPEARS AS IF IT WILL REMAIN SITUATED TO THE
WEST WITH A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT TO REMAIN OVER THE CWA
TODAY. THIS WILL OCCUR AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS
OVERHEAD...WITH A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST...WHICH WILL PLAY A FACTOR WITH CLOUD
TRENDS TODAY. LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST
THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA THROUGH MID DAY WITH A
PARTIAL CLEARING TREND EXPECTED THROUGH MID DAY. ALTHOUGH...WITH
COOLER AIR MOVING THROUGH...STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND
THE APPROACHING WAVE...A REDEVELOPMENT OF CU/STRATO CU WILL HELP
TO PROVIDE WHATEVER CLEAR SKIES ARE IN PLACE TO BECOME MORE PARTLY
SUNNY/CLOUDY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS DIURNAL CU WILL THEN DIMINISH
WITH A CLEARING TREND EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING.
EVENING SKIES GRIDS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED FOR THE AFTERNOON
ISSUANCE...AS A QUICKLY APPROACHING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY
PROVIDE ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER LATE THIS EVENING BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD EARLY FRIDAY.
RODRIGUEZ
//PREV DISCUSSION...
307 AM CST
THE IMMEDIATE CONCERNS WITH THE FORECAST ARE WITH THE FALLING
TEMPERATURES...AS WELL AS CONTINUED POST FRONTAL SHOWERS AND EVEN
SOME THUNDER CHANCES THIS MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA. THEN ATTENTION TURNS TO RAIN POTENTIAL SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY
THE TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK AS A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP...OR RE-WARM UP
WE SHOULD SAY...LOOKS LIKELY.
FOR THE CURRENT SITUATION...A VERY WELL-DEFINED COLD FRONT IS
CLEARING THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. ROBUSTLY WARM AIR
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE HELPED CHICAGO BREAK THEIR RECORD WARM LOW
FOR YESTERDAY /54 DEGREES/. THE COMBINATION OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
AND RAIN TOOK TEMPERATURES DOWN AS MUCH AS 14 DEGREES IN ONE
HOUR AT SOME LOCATIONS. A GOOD PART OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
POST-FRONTAL...ASSOCIATED WITH ELEVATED MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
STRONG CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. ITS A GOOD THING A LOT OF
THIS IS POST FRONTAL...AS MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT
COULD HAVE POTENTIALLY STEERED DOWN SOME OF THE 55 KT FLOW AT 1500
FT SEEN ON THE KLOT DOPPLER VELOCITY FOR HOURS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
THE NORTHWEST WIND SPEEDS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE ACTUALLY QUITE A
BIT LOWER...GUSTING AT TIMES TO NEAR 25 MPH. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE
TO BE THE CASE INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
AN INTERESTING AREA OF ELEVATED CONVECTION IS SEEN IN NORTHERN MO
AS OF 300 AM HAVING ORIGINATED IN KS WITH A SHORT WAVE PER WATER
VAPOR ANALYSIS. THIS AREA CONTINUES TO GROW UPSCALE EAST
NORTHEAST...WELL BEHIND THE FRONT. RUC AND NAM CROSS SECTIONS
THROUGH THIS AREA SHOW STRONG MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND A VERY
DEEP LAYER /AROUND 200 MB/ OF NEGATIVE EPV AND SLIGHTLY
DECREASING THETA-E...INDICATING CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY PRESENT.
THE RUC FORECAST FOR THE FORCING AND INSTABILITY...AND HRRR
PROJECTION OF REFLECTIVITY...SEEMS TO HAVE A STRONG HANDLE ON
THIS...WHILE MOST OTHER GUIDANCE DOES NOT. THIS AREA IS FORECAST
BY THE RUC/HRRR TO COME ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE CONVECTIVE SIGNAL WEAKENS
SOMEWHAT...BUT STILL THINK ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDER SHOULD BE
SEEN AT LEAST CLOSE IF NOT INTO THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. THERE
COULD BE SOME SMALL HAIL WITH THIS GIVEN THE LOW WET BULB ZERO
VALUES. THIS SHOULD EXIT BY 10 AM TO NOON...WITH LINGERING CLOUDS
BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREA INTO EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON.
COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL UNDERCUT THE MORNING
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS IN THE SOUTH...HELPING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES
NEARLY STEADY OR EVEN CONTINUING TO FALL THROUGH MID-MORNING.
CLEARING BY LATE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
REBOUND...BUT PROBABLY ONLY INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S. CONFIDENCE
ON THE DEGREE OF RECOVERY IS SOMEWHAT LOW DUE TO WEIGHING THE COLD
AIR ADVECTION/CLOUD IMPACT THIS MORNING.
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER MN EARLY THIS MORNING WILL PASS OVER THE
GREAT LAKES AND BE RE-ENFORCED BY A STRONG JET MAX TO THE
NORTHWEST. THIS WILL HELP TO PUSH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT SOUTH
THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT. THIS LOOKS TO
REALLY SEND DEW POINTS DOWN AND POTENTIALLY TEMPERATURES FURTHER
TOO. THE COLD POCKET ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHOULD DEVELOP SOME
STRATOCU TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS THAT MAY
POTENTIALLY LINGER INTO FRI MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY...WITH
RETURN FLOW THEN SETTING UP FOR SATURDAY...WHICH SHOULD BE A
FAIRLY PLEASANT AND SUNNY DAY. THE WELL-ORGANIZED CLOSED UPPER
LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL DRIFT GRADUALLY NORTHEAST ON
SATURDAY...THEN BEGIN TO BECOME MORE NEUTRAL TO NEGATIVELY TILED
AS IT LIFTS OVER OUR AREA ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THIS IS FAIRLY SHORT IN
DURATION...BUT IT CERTAINLY LOOKS TO BE DEEP ENOUGH AND WITHIN
STRONG ENOUGH ISENTROPIC LIFT FOR FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RAIN/SHOWERS
ON SUNDAY. HAVE CONTINUED TO INCH UP POPS. WHILE THE SYSTEM DRY
SLOT EVOLVES RIGHT INTO THE AREA...ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS VERY
MARGINAL DUE TO THE LIMITED DEGREE OF THETA-E RETURN. SO CONTINUE
WITH NO THUNDER MENTION...BUT COULD SEE SOME GUSTIER SHOWERS
POTENTIALLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVE IF THE GFS/EC PAN OUT AS IS.
SO HAVE MENTIONED MORE OF A SHOWER WORDING DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVE BECAUSE OF THIS. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY COULD ENCOMPASS A
FAIRLY LARGE RANGE THANKS TO THE IMPACTS OF THE LIKELY RAIN. WITH
CONFIDENCE INCREASING IN RAIN...HAVE CONTINUED NOT TO INCREASE
TEMPERATURES DESPITE SOME GUIDANCE INDICATING WARMER IN SUCCESSIVE
RUNS.
THE GFS REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH HAVING ANOTHER UPPER
WAVE...ACTUALLY ALMOST A PART OF THE FIRST ONE...MOVE NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE
08.00 EC TRENDED BACK AWAY FROM THIS...BUT HAS BEEN THE LESS
CONSISTENT MODEL. HAVE KEPT POPS ON TUE MAINLY IN SOUTHEAST AREAS
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS WAVE. WHILE THIS COULD HAVE IMPACTS ON
TEMPERATURES ON TUE...A LOW-LEVEL THERMAL TONGUE IS PROJECTED TO
BE KNOCKING ON OUR DOOR FROM THE WEST AND SHOULD PROVIDE FOR ABOVE
TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE STRONGEST SIGNAL FOR VERY
MILD READINGS AND A DRY ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN IS ON WED AT THIS TIME.
AS PREVIOUS SHIFT DID...LEAN THE FORECAST TOWARDS THE BETTER
PERFORMING EC IN THOSE TYPE OF REGIMES. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S
INTO THE 70S ARE CURRENTLY WHAT THIS BLENDED APPROACH PRODUCES
AND SEEMS TO MAKE SENSE. WHILE A FRONT IS PRESENTLY FORECAST TO
MOVE THROUGH SOMETIME LATER WED INTO THU OF NEXT WEEK...IT WOULD
SEEM LIKELY WITH THE PATTERN THAT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.
MTF
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 16Z...
* MVFR CIGS LINGER...ALTHOUGH STEADILY LIFTING TOWARDS VFR CIGS BY
THIS AFTN.
* OCCASIONAL W/NW GUSTS TO 25KT THRU THIS AFTN...THEN DIMINISHING.
BEACHLER
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
A STRONG COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING.
WITH THE FROPA...WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO NWLY AND DIMINISHED
SOMEWHAT...THOUGH GUSTS TO 25KT ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE DAY. MUCH
OF THE ASSOCIATED PCPN HAS ENDED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE
MOVING THROUGH CNTRL IL HAS BROUGHT MORE RAIN AND SOME ISOLD
THUNDER...BUT LATEST RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES A WEAKENING TREND AND
IT IS LIKELY THAT ANY REMAINING PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
TERMINALS...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF KGYY WHICH MAY STILL
GET CLIPPED WITH SOME SHRA. OTHERWISE...THE TREND FOR THE DAY
SHOULD BE FOR IMPROVING CIGS AS COOLER...DRIER AIR FILTERS IN
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT THAT CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY
LATE MORNING. THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD SHOULD SEE VFR
CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT
SHOULD DRAG A SECONDARY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA...BRINGING A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR. THIS COLD ADVECTION SHOULD BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTINESS DURG THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THOUGH DO
NOT EXPECT GUSTS TO EXCEED 25KT.
KREIN
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 16Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR/SPEED FORECAST.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF VFR CIGS DEVELOPING.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL ELEMENTS AFT 21Z.
BEACHLER
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...VFR.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN. MVFR POSSIBLE.
TUESDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN AND MVFR EARLY...OTHERWISE VFR.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
KREIN
&&
.MARINE...
325 AM CST
SOUTHWEST GALES ARE FINALLY COMING TO AN END OVER THE LAKE! THE
COLD FRONT IS ALMOST THROUGH LAKE MICHIGAN...WITH THE
SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE LAKE STILL AWAITING ITS ARRIVAL. WINDS
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT HAVE DIMINISHED AND TURNED WEST TO
NORTHWEST. THE ABRUPT CHANGE IN WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION HAS
HELPED WAVES QUICKLY DIMINISH IN THE NEAR SHORE ZONES...THEREFORE
NOT ISSUING A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THIS MORNING. WINDS MAY
GUST TO 25 KT FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT NOT LONG ENOUGH
TO WARRANT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.
A WEAKENING LOW MOVES SOUTH OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR WEST MOVES INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. AS THE TWO
SYSTEMS MOVE CLOSER TOGETHER THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
OVERHEAD. THAT COMBINED WITH STRONG PRESSURE RISES WILL CREATE
NORTHWEST GALES OVER THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE LAKE LATE
TONIGHT. GALES WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH FRIDAY MORNING AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE IMMEDIATE AREA. THE HIGH WILL PASS OVER
THE LAKE LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING.
YET ANOTHER ROUND OF GALES IS POSSIBLE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH
PRESSURE SATURDAY MORNING. LOW END GALES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
CENTRAL THIRD OF THE LAKE...WITH GALES UP TO 40 KT LIKELY OVER THE
NORTHERN THIRD OF THE LAKE. NOT ANTICIPATING GALES OVER THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE LAKE. GALES BEGIN TO DIMINISH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH PRESSURE PULLS AWAY TO THE EAST...HOWEVER
GALES OVER THE NORTHERN END OF THE LAKE LOOK LIKE THEY WILL PERSIST
INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
MODELS HAVE SIGNIFICANT DISCREPANCIES IN TIMING AND THE OVERALL
PATTERN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST...SO WHILE NO GALES ARE
FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
JEE
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745...3 AM FRIDAY TO 9
PM FRIDAY.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1009 AM CST THU MAR 8 2012
.DISCUSSION...
1008 AM CST
NO REAL ISSUES LATE THIS MORNING OR GOING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...WITH MINOR CHANGES TO POP/WX GRIDS AS RAIN HAS EXITED
THE CWA...AND SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD TRENDS TODAY.
SURFACE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT HAVE SINCE SHIFTED
EAST/SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA THIS MORNING...AS HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS
EAST WITH PRESSURE RISES NOTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THIS
HOUR. ALTHOUGH...MAIN RIDGE AXIS REMAINS TO THE WEST OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND APPEARS AS IF IT WILL REMAIN SITUATED TO THE
WEST WITH A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT TO REMAIN OVER THE CWA
TODAY. THIS WILL OCCUR AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS
OVERHEAD...WITH A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST...WHICH WILL PLAY A FACTOR WITH CLOUD
TRENDS TODAY. LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST
THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA THROUGH MID DAY WITH A
PARTIAL CLEARING TREND EXPECTED THROUGH MID DAY. ALTHOUGH...WITH
COOLER AIR MOVING THROUGH...STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND
THE APPROACHING WAVE...A REDEVELOPMENT OF CU/STRATO CU WILL HELP
TO PROVIDE WHATEVER CLEAR SKIES ARE IN PLACE TO BECOME MORE PARTLY
SUNNY/CLOUDY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS DIURNAL CU WILL THEN DIMINISH
WITH A CLEARING TREND EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING.
EVENING SKIES GRIDS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED FOR THE AFTERNOON
ISSUANCE...AS A QUICKLY APPROACHING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY
PROVIDE ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER LATE THIS EVENING BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD EARLY FRIDAY.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
307 AM CST
THE IMMEDIATE CONCERNS WITH THE FORECAST ARE WITH THE FALLING
TEMPERATURES...AS WELL AS CONTINUED POST FRONTAL SHOWERS AND EVEN
SOME THUNDER CHANCES THIS MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA. THEN ATTENTION TURNS TO RAIN POTENTIAL SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY
THE TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK AS A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP...OR RE-WARM UP
WE SHOULD SAY...LOOKS LIKELY.
FOR THE CURRENT SITUATION...A VERY WELL-DEFINED COLD FRONT IS
CLEARING THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. ROBUSTLY WARM AIR
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE HELPED CHICAGO BREAK THEIR RECORD WARM LOW
FOR YESTERDAY /54 DEGREES/. THE COMBINATION OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
AND RAIN TOOK TEMPERATURES DOWN AS MUCH AS 14 DEGREES IN ONE
HOUR AT SOME LOCATIONS. A GOOD PART OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
POST-FRONTAL...ASSOCIATED WITH ELEVATED MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
STRONG CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. ITS A GOOD THING A LOT OF
THIS IS POST FRONTAL...AS MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT
COULD HAVE POTENTIALLY STEERED DOWN SOME OF THE 55 KT FLOW AT 1500
FT SEEN ON THE KLOT DOPPLER VELOCITY FOR HOURS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
THE NORTHWEST WIND SPEEDS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE ACTUALLY QUITE A
BIT LOWER...GUSTING AT TIMES TO NEAR 25 MPH. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE
TO BE THE CASE INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
AN INTERESTING AREA OF ELEVATED CONVECTION IS SEEN IN NORTHERN MO
AS OF 300 AM HAVING ORIGINATED IN KS WITH A SHORT WAVE PER WATER
VAPOR ANALYSIS. THIS AREA CONTINUES TO GROW UPSCALE EAST
NORTHEAST...WELL BEHIND THE FRONT. RUC AND NAM CROSS SECTIONS
THROUGH THIS AREA SHOW STRONG MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND A VERY
DEEP LAYER /AROUND 200 MB/ OF NEGATIVE EPV AND SLIGHTLY
DECREASING THETA-E...INDICATING CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY PRESENT.
THE RUC FORECAST FOR THE FORCING AND INSTABILITY...AND HRRR
PROJECTION OF REFLECTIVITY...SEEMS TO HAVE A STRONG HANDLE ON
THIS...WHILE MOST OTHER GUIDANCE DOES NOT. THIS AREA IS FORECAST
BY THE RUC/HRRR TO COME ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE CONVECTIVE SIGNAL WEAKENS
SOMEWHAT...BUT STILL THINK ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDER SHOULD BE
SEEN AT LEAST CLOSE IF NOT INTO THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. THERE
COULD BE SOME SMALL HAIL WITH THIS GIVEN THE LOW WET BULB ZERO
VALUES. THIS SHOULD EXIT BY 10 AM TO NOON...WITH LINGERING CLOUDS
BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREA INTO EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON.
COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL UNDERCUT THE MORNING
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS IN THE SOUTH...HELPING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES
NEARLY STEADY OR EVEN CONTINUING TO FALL THROUGH MID-MORNING.
CLEARING BY LATE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
REBOUND...BUT PROBABLY ONLY INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S. CONFIDENCE
ON THE DEGREE OF RECOVERY IS SOMEWHAT LOW DUE TO WEIGHING THE COLD
AIR ADVECTION/CLOUD IMPACT THIS MORNING.
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER MN EARLY THIS MORNING WILL PASS OVER THE
GREAT LAKES AND BE RE-ENFORCED BY A STRONG JET MAX TO THE
NORTHWEST. THIS WILL HELP TO PUSH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT SOUTH
THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT. THIS LOOKS TO
REALLY SEND DEW POINTS DOWN AND POTENTIALLY TEMPERATURES FURTHER
TOO. THE COLD POCKET ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHOULD DEVELOP SOME
STRATOCU TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS THAT MAY
POTENTIALLY LINGER INTO FRI MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY...WITH
RETURN FLOW THEN SETTING UP FOR SATURDAY...WHICH SHOULD BE A
FAIRLY PLEASANT AND SUNNY DAY. THE WELL-ORGANIZED CLOSED UPPER
LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL DRIFT GRADUALLY NORTHEAST ON
SATURDAY...THEN BEGIN TO BECOME MORE NEUTRAL TO NEGATIVELY TILED
AS IT LIFTS OVER OUR AREA ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THIS IS FAIRLY SHORT IN
DURATION...BUT IT CERTAINLY LOOKS TO BE DEEP ENOUGH AND WITHIN
STRONG ENOUGH ISENTROPIC LIFT FOR FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RAIN/SHOWERS
ON SUNDAY. HAVE CONTINUED TO INCH UP POPS. WHILE THE SYSTEM DRY
SLOT EVOLVES RIGHT INTO THE AREA...ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS VERY
MARGINAL DUE TO THE LIMITED DEGREE OF THETA-E RETURN. SO CONTINUE
WITH NO THUNDER MENTION...BUT COULD SEE SOME GUSTIER SHOWERS
POTENTIALLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVE IF THE GFS/EC PAN OUT AS IS.
SO HAVE MENTIONED MORE OF A SHOWER WORDING DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVE BECAUSE OF THIS. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY COULD ENCOMPASS A
FAIRLY LARGE RANGE THANKS TO THE IMPACTS OF THE LIKELY RAIN. WITH
CONFIDENCE INCREASING IN RAIN...HAVE CONTINUED NOT TO INCREASE
TEMPERATURES DESPITE SOME GUIDANCE INDICATING WARMER IN SUCCESSIVE
RUNS.
THE GFS REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH HAVING ANOTHER UPPER
WAVE...ACTUALLY ALMOST A PART OF THE FIRST ONE...MOVE NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE
08.00 EC TRENDED BACK AWAY FROM THIS...BUT HAS BEEN THE LESS
CONSISTENT MODEL. HAVE KEPT POPS ON TUE MAINLY IN SOUTHEAST AREAS
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS WAVE. WHILE THIS COULD HAVE IMPACTS ON
TEMPERATURES ON TUE...A LOW-LEVEL THERMAL TONGUE IS PROJECTED TO
BE KNOCKING ON OUR DOOR FROM THE WEST AND SHOULD PROVIDE FOR ABOVE
TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE STRONGEST SIGNAL FOR VERY
MILD READINGS AND A DRY ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN IS ON WED AT THIS TIME.
AS PREVIOUS SHIFT DID...LEAN THE FORECAST TOWARDS THE BETTER
PERFORMING EC IN THOSE TYPE OF REGIMES. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S
INTO THE 70S ARE CURRENTLY WHAT THIS BLENDED APPROACH PRODUCES
AND SEEMS TO MAKE SENSE. WHILE A FRONT IS PRESENTLY FORECAST TO
MOVE THROUGH SOMETIME LATER WED INTO THU OF NEXT WEEK...IT WOULD
SEEM LIKELY WITH THE PATTERN THAT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.
MTF
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 14Z...
* OCCASIONAL W/NW GUSTS TO 25 KT.
* LOW END MVFR CIGS UNTIL 16Z THEN STEADY IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.
BEACHLER
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
A STRONG COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING.
WITH THE FROPA...WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO NWLY AND DIMINISHED
SOMEWHAT...THOUGH GUSTS TO 25KT ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE DAY. MUCH
OF THE ASSOCIATED PCPN HAS ENDED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE
MOVING THROUGH CNTRL IL HAS BROUGHT MORE RAIN AND SOME ISOLD
THUNDER...BUT LATEST RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES A WEAKENING TREND AND
IT IS LIKELY THAT ANY REMAINING PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
TERMINALS...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF KGYY WHICH MAY STILL
GET CLIPPED WITH SOME SHRA. OTHERWISE...THE TREND FOR THE DAY
SHOULD BE FOR IMPROVING CIGS AS COOLER...DRIER AIR FILTERS IN
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT THAT CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY
LATE MORNING. THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD SHOULD SEE VFR
CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT
SHOULD DRAG A SECONDARY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA...BRINGING A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR. THIS COLD ADVECTION SHOULD BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTINESS DURG THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THOUGH DO
NOT EXPECT GUSTS TO EXCEED 25KT.
KREIN
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 14Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR/SPEED FORECAST.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF CIGS IMPROVEMENT.
BEACHLER
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...VFR.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN. MVFR POSSIBLE.
TUESDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN AND MVFR EARLY...OTHERWISE VFR.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
KREIN
&&
.MARINE...
325 AM CST
SOUTHWEST GALES ARE FINALLY COMING TO AN END OVER THE LAKE! THE
COLD FRONT IS ALMOST THROUGH LAKE MICHIGAN...WITH THE
SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE LAKE STILL AWAITING ITS ARRIVAL. WINDS
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT HAVE DIMINISHED AND TURNED WEST TO
NORTHWEST. THE ABRUPT CHANGE IN WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION HAS
HELPED WAVES QUICKLY DIMINISH IN THE NEAR SHORE ZONES...THEREFORE
NOT ISSUING A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THIS MORNING. WINDS MAY
GUST TO 25 KT FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT NOT LONG ENOUGH
TO WARRANT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.
A WEAKENING LOW MOVES SOUTH OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR WEST MOVES INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. AS THE TWO
SYSTEMS MOVE CLOSER TOGETHER THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
OVERHEAD. THAT COMBINED WITH STRONG PRESSURE RISES WILL CREATE
NORTHWEST GALES OVER THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE LAKE LATE
TONIGHT. GALES WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH FRIDAY MORNING AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE IMMEDIATE AREA. THE HIGH WILL PASS OVER
THE LAKE LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING.
YET ANOTHER ROUND OF GALES IS POSSIBLE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH
PRESSURE SATURDAY MORNING. LOW END GALES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
CENTRAL THIRD OF THE LAKE...WITH GALES UP TO 40 KT LIKELY OVER THE
NORTHERN THIRD OF THE LAKE. NOT ANTICIPATING GALES OVER THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE LAKE. GALES BEGIN TO DIMINISH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH PRESSURE PULLS AWAY TO THE EAST...HOWEVER
GALES OVER THE NORTHERN END OF THE LAKE LOOK LIKE THEY WILL PERSIST
INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
MODELS HAVE SIGNIFICANT DISCREPANCIES IN TIMING AND THE OVERALL
PATTERN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST...SO WHILE NO GALES ARE
FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
JEE
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745...3 AM FRIDAY TO 9
PM FRIDAY.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
815 AM CST THU MAR 8 2012
.DISCUSSION...
307 AM CST
THE IMMEDIATE CONCERNS WITH THE FORECAST ARE WITH THE FALLING
TEMPERATURES...AS WELL AS CONTINUED POST FRONTAL SHOWERS AND EVEN
SOME THUNDER CHANCES THIS MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA. THEN ATTENTION TURNS TO RAIN POTENTIAL SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY
THE TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK AS A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP...OR RE-WARM UP
WE SHOULD SAY...LOOKS LIKELY.
FOR THE CURRENT SITUATION...A VERY WELL-DEFINED COLD FRONT IS
CLEARING THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. ROBUSTLY WARM AIR
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE HELPED CHICAGO BREAK THEIR RECORD WARM LOW
FOR YESTERDAY /54 DEGREES/. THE COMBINATION OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
AND RAIN TOOK TEMPERATURES DOWN AS MUCH AS 14 DEGREES IN ONE
HOUR AT SOME LOCATIONS. A GOOD PART OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
POST-FRONTAL...ASSOCIATED WITH ELEVATED MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
STRONG CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. ITS A GOOD THING A LOT OF
THIS IS POST FRONTAL...AS MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT
COULD HAVE POTENTIALLY STEERED DOWN SOME OF THE 55 KT FLOW AT 1500
FT SEEN ON THE KLOT DOPPLER VELOCITY FOR HOURS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
THE NORTHWEST WIND SPEEDS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE ACTUALLY QUITE A
BIT LOWER...GUSTING AT TIMES TO NEAR 25 MPH. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE
TO BE THE CASE INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
AN INTERESTING AREA OF ELEVATED CONVECTION IS SEEN IN NORTHERN MO
AS OF 300 AM HAVING ORIGINATED IN KS WITH A SHORT WAVE PER WATER
VAPOR ANALYSIS. THIS AREA CONTINUES TO GROW UPSCALE EAST
NORTHEAST...WELL BEHIND THE FRONT. RUC AND NAM CROSS SECTIONS
THROUGH THIS AREA SHOW STRONG MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND A VERY
DEEP LAYER /AROUND 200 MB/ OF NEGATIVE EPV AND SLIGHTLY
DECREASING THETA-E...INDICATING CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY PRESENT.
THE RUC FORECAST FOR THE FORCING AND INSTABILITY...AND HRRR
PROJECTION OF REFLECTIVITY...SEEMS TO HAVE A STRONG HANDLE ON
THIS...WHILE MOST OTHER GUIDANCE DOES NOT. THIS AREA IS FORECAST
BY THE RUC/HRRR TO COME ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE CONVECTIVE SIGNAL WEAKENS
SOMEWHAT...BUT STILL THINK ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDER SHOULD BE
SEEN AT LEAST CLOSE IF NOT INTO THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. THERE
COULD BE SOME SMALL HAIL WITH THIS GIVEN THE LOW WET BULB ZERO
VALUES. THIS SHOULD EXIT BY 10 AM TO NOON...WITH LINGERING CLOUDS
BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREA INTO EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON.
COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL UNDERCUT THE MORNING
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS IN THE SOUTH...HELPING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES
NEARLY STEADY OR EVEN CONTINUING TO FALL THROUGH MID-MORNING.
CLEARING BY LATE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
REBOUND...BUT PROBABLY ONLY INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S. CONFIDENCE
ON THE DEGREE OF RECOVERY IS SOMEWHAT LOW DUE TO WEIGHING THE COLD
AIR ADVECTION/CLOUD IMPACT THIS MORNING.
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER MN EARLY THIS MORNING WILL PASS OVER THE
GREAT LAKES AND BE RE-ENFORCED BY A STRONG JET MAX TO THE
NORTHWEST. THIS WILL HELP TO PUSH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT SOUTH
THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT. THIS LOOKS TO
REALLY SEND DEW POINTS DOWN AND POTENTIALLY TEMPERATURES FURTHER
TOO. THE COLD POCKET ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHOULD DEVELOP SOME
STRATOCU TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS THAT MAY
POTENTIALLY LINGER INTO FRI MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY...WITH
RETURN FLOW THEN SETTING UP FOR SATURDAY...WHICH SHOULD BE A
FAIRLY PLEASANT AND SUNNY DAY. THE WELL-ORGANIZED CLOSED UPPER
LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL DRIFT GRADUALLY NORTHEAST ON
SATURDAY...THEN BEGIN TO BECOME MORE NEUTRAL TO NEGATIVELY TILED
AS IT LIFTS OVER OUR AREA ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THIS IS FAIRLY SHORT IN
DURATION...BUT IT CERTAINLY LOOKS TO BE DEEP ENOUGH AND WITHIN
STRONG ENOUGH ISENTROPIC LIFT FOR FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RAIN/SHOWERS
ON SUNDAY. HAVE CONTINUED TO INCH UP POPS. WHILE THE SYSTEM DRY
SLOT EVOLVES RIGHT INTO THE AREA...ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS VERY
MARGINAL DUE TO THE LIMITED DEGREE OF THETA-E RETURN. SO CONTINUE
WITH NO THUNDER MENTION...BUT COULD SEE SOME GUSTIER SHOWERS
POTENTIALLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVE IF THE GFS/EC PAN OUT AS IS.
SO HAVE MENTIONED MORE OF A SHOWER WORDING DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVE BECAUSE OF THIS. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY COULD ENCOMPASS A
FAIRLY LARGE RANGE THANKS TO THE IMPACTS OF THE LIKELY RAIN. WITH
CONFIDENCE INCREASING IN RAIN...HAVE CONTINUED NOT TO INCREASE
TEMPERATURES DESPITE SOME GUIDANCE INDICATING WARMER IN SUCCESSIVE
RUNS.
THE GFS REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH HAVING ANOTHER UPPER
WAVE...ACTUALLY ALMOST A PART OF THE FIRST ONE...MOVE NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE
08.00 EC TRENDED BACK AWAY FROM THIS...BUT HAS BEEN THE LESS
CONSISTENT MODEL. HAVE KEPT POPS ON TUE MAINLY IN SOUTHEAST AREAS
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS WAVE. WHILE THIS COULD HAVE IMPACTS ON
TEMPERATURES ON TUE...A LOW-LEVEL THERMAL TONGUE IS PROJECTED TO
BE KNOCKING ON OUR DOOR FROM THE WEST AND SHOULD PROVIDE FOR ABOVE
TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE STRONGEST SIGNAL FOR VERY
MILD READINGS AND A DRY ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN IS ON WED AT THIS TIME.
AS PREVIOUS SHIFT DID...LEAN THE FORECAST TOWARDS THE BETTER
PERFORMING EC IN THOSE TYPE OF REGIMES. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S
INTO THE 70S ARE CURRENTLY WHAT THIS BLENDED APPROACH PRODUCES
AND SEEMS TO MAKE SENSE. WHILE A FRONT IS PRESENTLY FORECAST TO
MOVE THROUGH SOMETIME LATER WED INTO THU OF NEXT WEEK...IT WOULD
SEEM LIKELY WITH THE PATTERN THAT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.
MTF
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 14Z...
* OCCASIONAL W/NW GUSTS TO 25 KT.
* LOW END MVFR CIGS UNTIL 16Z THEN STEADY IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.
BEACHLER
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
A STRONG COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING.
WITH THE FROPA...WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO NWLY AND DIMINISHED
SOMEWHAT...THOUGH GUSTS TO 25KT ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE DAY. MUCH
OF THE ASSOCIATED PCPN HAS ENDED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE
MOVING THROUGH CNTRL IL HAS BROUGHT MORE RAIN AND SOME ISOLD
THUNDER...BUT LATEST RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES A WEAKENING TREND AND
IT IS LIKELY THAT ANY REMAINING PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
TERMINALS...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF KGYY WHICH MAY STILL
GET CLIPPED WITH SOME SHRA. OTHERWISE...THE TREND FOR THE DAY
SHOULD BE FOR IMPROVING CIGS AS COOLER...DRIER AIR FILTERS IN
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT THAT CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY
LATE MORNING. THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD SHOULD SEE VFR
CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT
SHOULD DRAG A SECONDARY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA...BRINGING A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR. THIS COLD ADVECTION SHOULD BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTINESS DURG THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THOUGH DO
NOT EXPECT GUSTS TO EXCEED 25KT.
KREIN
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 14Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR/SPEED FORECAST.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF CIGS IMPROVEMENT.
BEACHLER
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...VFR.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN. MVFR POSSIBLE.
TUESDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN AND MVFR EARLY...OTHERWISE VFR.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
KREIN
&&
.MARINE...
325 AM CST
SOUTHWEST GALES ARE FINALLY COMING TO AN END OVER THE LAKE! THE
COLD FRONT IS ALMOST THROUGH LAKE MICHIGAN...WITH THE
SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE LAKE STILL AWAITING ITS ARRIVAL. WINDS
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT HAVE DIMINISHED AND TURNED WEST TO
NORTHWEST. THE ABRUPT CHANGE IN WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION HAS
HELPED WAVES QUICKLY DIMINISH IN THE NEAR SHORE ZONES...THEREFORE
NOT ISSUING A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THIS MORNING. WINDS MAY
GUST TO 25 KT FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT NOT LONG ENOUGH
TO WARRANT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.
A WEAKENING LOW MOVES SOUTH OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR WEST MOVES INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. AS THE TWO
SYSTEMS MOVE CLOSER TOGETHER THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
OVERHEAD. THAT COMBINED WITH STRONG PRESSURE RISES WILL CREATE
NORTHWEST GALES OVER THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE LAKE LATE
TONIGHT. GALES WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH FRIDAY MORNING AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE IMMEDIATE AREA. THE HIGH WILL PASS OVER
THE LAKE LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING.
YET ANOTHER ROUND OF GALES IS POSSIBLE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH
PRESSURE SATURDAY MORNING. LOW END GALES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
CENTRAL THIRD OF THE LAKE...WITH GALES UP TO 40 KT LIKELY OVER THE
NORTHERN THIRD OF THE LAKE. NOT ANTICIPATING GALES OVER THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE LAKE. GALES BEGIN TO DIMINISH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH PRESSURE PULLS AWAY TO THE EAST...HOWEVER
GALES OVER THE NORTHERN END OF THE LAKE LOOK LIKE THEY WILL PERSIST
INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
MODELS HAVE SIGNIFICANT DISCREPANCIES IN TIMING AND THE OVERALL
PATTERN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST...SO WHILE NO GALES ARE
FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
JEE
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745...3 AM FRIDAY TO 9
PM FRIDAY.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
603 AM CST THU MAR 8 2012
.DISCUSSION...
307 AM CST
THE IMMEDIATE CONCERNS WITH THE FORECAST ARE WITH THE FALLING
TEMPERATURES...AS WELL AS CONTINUED POST FRONTAL SHOWERS AND EVEN
SOME THUNDER CHANCES THIS MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA. THEN ATTENTION TURNS TO RAIN POTENTIAL SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY
THE TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK AS A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP...OR RE-WARM UP
WE SHOULD SAY...LOOKS LIKELY.
FOR THE CURRENT SITUATION...A VERY WELL-DEFINED COLD FRONT IS
CLEARING THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. ROBUSTLY WARM AIR
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE HELPED CHICAGO BREAK THEIR RECORD WARM LOW
FOR YESTERDAY /54 DEGREES/. THE COMBINATION OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
AND RAIN TOOK TEMPERATURES DOWN AS MUCH AS 14 DEGREES IN ONE
HOUR AT SOME LOCATIONS. A GOOD PART OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
POST-FRONTAL...ASSOCIATED WITH ELEVATED MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
STRONG CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. ITS A GOOD THING A LOT OF
THIS IS POST FRONTAL...AS MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT
COULD HAVE POTENTIALLY STEERED DOWN SOME OF THE 55 KT FLOW AT 1500
FT SEEN ON THE KLOT DOPPLER VELOCITY FOR HOURS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
THE NORTHWEST WIND SPEEDS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE ACTUALLY QUITE A
BIT LOWER...GUSTING AT TIMES TO NEAR 25 MPH. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE
TO BE THE CASE INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
AN INTERESTING AREA OF ELEVATED CONVECTION IS SEEN IN NORTHERN MO
AS OF 300 AM HAVING ORIGINATED IN KS WITH A SHORT WAVE PER WATER
VAPOR ANALYSIS. THIS AREA CONTINUES TO GROW UPSCALE EAST
NORTHEAST...WELL BEHIND THE FRONT. RUC AND NAM CROSS SECTIONS
THROUGH THIS AREA SHOW STRONG MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND A VERY
DEEP LAYER /AROUND 200 MB/ OF NEGATIVE EPV AND SLIGHTLY
DECREASING THETA-E...INDICATING CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY PRESENT.
THE RUC FORECAST FOR THE FORCING AND INSTABILITY...AND HRRR
PROJECTION OF REFLECTIVITY...SEEMS TO HAVE A STRONG HANDLE ON
THIS...WHILE MOST OTHER GUIDANCE DOES NOT. THIS AREA IS FORECAST
BY THE RUC/HRRR TO COME ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE CONVECTIVE SIGNAL WEAKENS
SOMEWHAT...BUT STILL THINK ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDER SHOULD BE
SEEN AT LEAST CLOSE IF NOT INTO THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. THERE
COULD BE SOME SMALL HAIL WITH THIS GIVEN THE LOW WET BULB ZERO
VALUES. THIS SHOULD EXIT BY 10 AM TO NOON...WITH LINGERING CLOUDS
BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREA INTO EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON.
COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL UNDERCUT THE MORNING
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS IN THE SOUTH...HELPING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES
NEARLY STEADY OR EVEN CONTINUING TO FALL THROUGH MID-MORNING.
CLEARING BY LATE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
REBOUND...BUT PROBABLY ONLY INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S. CONFIDENCE
ON THE DEGREE OF RECOVERY IS SOMEWHAT LOW DUE TO WEIGHING THE COLD
AIR ADVECTION/CLOUD IMPACT THIS MORNING.
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER MN EARLY THIS MORNING WILL PASS OVER THE
GREAT LAKES AND BE RE-ENFORCED BY A STRONG JET MAX TO THE
NORTHWEST. THIS WILL HELP TO PUSH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT SOUTH
THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT. THIS LOOKS TO
REALLY SEND DEW POINTS DOWN AND POTENTIALLY TEMPERATURES FURTHER
TOO. THE COLD POCKET ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHOULD DEVELOP SOME
STRATOCU TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS THAT MAY
POTENTIALLY LINGER INTO FRI MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY...WITH
RETURN FLOW THEN SETTING UP FOR SATURDAY...WHICH SHOULD BE A
FAIRLY PLEASANT AND SUNNY DAY. THE WELL-ORGANIZED CLOSED UPPER
LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL DRIFT GRADUALLY NORTHEAST ON
SATURDAY...THEN BEGIN TO BECOME MORE NEUTRAL TO NEGATIVELY TILED
AS IT LIFTS OVER OUR AREA ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THIS IS FAIRLY SHORT IN
DURATION...BUT IT CERTAINLY LOOKS TO BE DEEP ENOUGH AND WITHIN
STRONG ENOUGH ISENTROPIC LIFT FOR FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RAIN/SHOWERS
ON SUNDAY. HAVE CONTINUED TO INCH UP POPS. WHILE THE SYSTEM DRY
SLOT EVOLVES RIGHT INTO THE AREA...ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS VERY
MARGINAL DUE TO THE LIMITED DEGREE OF THETA-E RETURN. SO CONTINUE
WITH NO THUNDER MENTION...BUT COULD SEE SOME GUSTIER SHOWERS
POTENTIALLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVE IF THE GFS/EC PAN OUT AS IS.
SO HAVE MENTIONED MORE OF A SHOWER WORDING DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVE BECAUSE OF THIS. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY COULD ENCOMPASS A
FAIRLY LARGE RANGE THANKS TO THE IMPACTS OF THE LIKELY RAIN. WITH
CONFIDENCE INCREASING IN RAIN...HAVE CONTINUED NOT TO INCREASE
TEMPERATURES DESPITE SOME GUIDANCE INDICATING WARMER IN SUCCESSIVE
RUNS.
THE GFS REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH HAVING ANOTHER UPPER
WAVE...ACTUALLY ALMOST A PART OF THE FIRST ONE...MOVE NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE
08.00 EC TRENDED BACK AWAY FROM THIS...BUT HAS BEEN THE LESS
CONSISTENT MODEL. HAVE KEPT POPS ON TUE MAINLY IN SOUTHEAST AREAS
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS WAVE. WHILE THIS COULD HAVE IMPACTS ON
TEMPERATURES ON TUE...A LOW-LEVEL THERMAL TONGUE IS PROJECTED TO
BE KNOCKING ON OUR DOOR FROM THE WEST AND SHOULD PROVIDE FOR ABOVE
TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE STRONGEST SIGNAL FOR VERY
MILD READINGS AND A DRY ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN IS ON WED AT THIS TIME.
AS PREVIOUS SHIFT DID...LEAN THE FORECAST TOWARDS THE BETTER
PERFORMING EC IN THOSE TYPE OF REGIMES. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S
INTO THE 70S ARE CURRENTLY WHAT THIS BLENDED APPROACH PRODUCES
AND SEEMS TO MAKE SENSE. WHILE A FRONT IS PRESENTLY FORECAST TO
MOVE THROUGH SOMETIME LATER WED INTO THU OF NEXT WEEK...IT WOULD
SEEM LIKELY WITH THE PATTERN THAT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.
MTF
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 12Z...
* GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WITH OCNL GUSTS TO 25KT.
* LOWER END MVFR CIGS THROUGH LATE MORNING.
KREIN
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
A STRONG COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING.
WITH THE FROPA...WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO NWLY AND DIMINISHED
SOMEWHAT...THOUGH GUSTS TO 25KT ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE DAY. MUCH
OF THE ASSOCIATED PCPN HAS ENDED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE
MOVING THROUGH CNTRL IL HAS BROUGHT MORE RAIN AND SOME ISOLD
THUNDER...BUT LATEST RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES A WEAKENING TREND AND
IT IS LIKELY THAT ANY REMAINING PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
TERMINALS...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF KGYY WHICH MAY STILL
GET CLIPPED WITH SOME SHRA. OTHERWISE...THE TREND FOR THE DAY
SHOULD BE FOR IMPROVING CIGS AS COOLER...DRIER AIR FILTERS IN
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT THAT CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY
LATE MORNING. THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD SHOULD SEE VFR
CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT
SHOULD DRAG A SECONDARY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA...BRINGING A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR. THIS COLD ADVECTION SHOULD BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTINESS DURG THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THOUGH DO
NOT EXPECT GUSTS TO EXCEED 25KT.
KREIN
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 12Z...
* MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN CEILING TRENDS.
* MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND TRENDS.
* MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS.
KREIN
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...VFR.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN. MVFR POSSIBLE.
TUESDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN AND MVFR EARLY...OTHERWISE VFR.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
KREIN
&&
.MARINE...
325 AM CST
SOUTHWEST GALES ARE FINALLY COMING TO AN END OVER THE LAKE! THE
COLD FRONT IS ALMOST THROUGH LAKE MICHIGAN...WITH THE
SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE LAKE STILL AWAITING ITS ARRIVAL. WINDS
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT HAVE DIMINISHED AND TURNED WEST TO
NORTHWEST. THE ABRUPT CHANGE IN WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION HAS
HELPED WAVES QUICKLY DIMINISH IN THE NEAR SHORE ZONES...THEREFORE
NOT ISSUING A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THIS MORNING. WINDS MAY
GUST TO 25 KT FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT NOT LONG ENOUGH
TO WARRANT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.
A WEAKENING LOW MOVES SOUTH OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR WEST MOVES INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. AS THE TWO
SYSTEMS MOVE CLOSER TOGETHER THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
OVERHEAD. THAT COMBINED WITH STRONG PRESSURE RISES WILL CREATE
NORTHWEST GALES OVER THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE LAKE LATE
TONIGHT. GALES WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH FRIDAY MORNING AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE IMMEDIATE AREA. THE HIGH WILL PASS OVER
THE LAKE LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING.
YET ANOTHER ROUND OF GALES IS POSSIBLE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH
PRESSURE SATURDAY MORNING. LOW END GALES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
CENTRAL THIRD OF THE LAKE...WITH GALES UP TO 40 KT LIKELY OVER THE
NORTHERN THIRD OF THE LAKE. NOT ANTICIPATING GALES OVER THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE LAKE. GALES BEGIN TO DIMINISH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH PRESSURE PULLS AWAY TO THE EAST...HOWEVER
GALES OVER THE NORTHERN END OF THE LAKE LOOK LIKE THEY WILL PERSIST
INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
MODELS HAVE SIGNIFICANT DISCREPANCIES IN TIMING AND THE OVERALL
PATTERN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST...SO WHILE NO GALES ARE
FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
JEE
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745...3 AM FRIDAY TO 9
PM FRIDAY.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
516 AM CST THU MAR 8 2012
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 314 AM CST THU MAR 8 2012
COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING WITH SOME
SHOWERS OUT AHEAD AND ALONG. A SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
OCCASIONAL THUNDER PUSHING UP JUST BEHIND THE SFC BOUNDARY AS A WAVE
MOVES NE INTO THE REGION. MORNING PRECIP AND HOW LONG IT WILL IMPACT
THE REGION IS THE FIRST ISSUE...ALONG WITH THE HOURLY TEMPS THIS
MORNING AS COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA. BEYOND THAT...THE
FORECAST HAS FEW CHANGES AS THE MODELS STILL WORK OUT HOW THE MAIN
UPPER LOW OVER THE SWRN CONUS IS GOING TO MOVE OUT AND ACROSS THE
ERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. STILL MORE IN FAVOR OF THE ECMWF...AND HAVE
TRIED TO MITIGATE THE GFS IMPACTS IN THE EXTENDED AS MUCH AS
COLLABORATION AND CONSENSUS WOULD ALLOW. THAT BEING SAID...THE GFS
SOLUTION OF SPLITTING THE WAVE INTO SEVERAL SMALLER WAVES IS SLOWLY
TURNING INTO A MORE ECMWF/NAM SOLUTION. BIGGEST IMPACT FOR THIS
PARTICULAR DISCREPANCY WILL BE ON MON NIGHT/TUESDAY WHERE THE
CONFIDENCE IN THE GOING FORECAST DECREASES.
SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TOMORROW...
HIGH TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO BE MET EARLY AS THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY
WILL BE COOLER WITH THE FRONT PASSING THROUGH THIS MORNING. PRECIP
WILL CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDER THIS MORNING WITH SOME
STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE FLOW JUST BEHIND THE SFC BOUNDARY. POPS DECREASING NW TO
SE AFTER 18Z. TEMPS A BIT COOLER TONIGHT. CONCERN THAT GUIDANCE AND
GOING FORECAST ARE NOT QUITE COOL ENOUGH SHOULD THE SKIES CLEAR A
BIT MORE QUICKLY THAN THE MODEL RH PROFILES ARE HINTING. RATHER DRY
AIR AVAILABLE BEHIND THIS WAVE. TOMORROW...TEMPS COOLER THAN LAST
COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT STILL A BIT WARMER THAN SEASONABLE...UPPER
40S/NEAR 50 WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.
LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
WINDS COME AROUND TO MORE SOUTHERLY SATURDAY MORNING...AND ASSISTS
IN A WARM UP WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EARLY. HOWEVER...SOME OF THIS
WARM UP WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A DEVELOPING SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE
SRN PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST. MODELS HAVE HAD QUITE THE HISTORY WITH
THIS SYSTEM...AND MANY MANY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS. FOR NOW...THE EC IS
PUSHING THE SYSTEM THROUGH...RATHER DIFFUSE AS AN OPEN WAVE...AND
WEAKENING AND LESSENING THE QPF TRENDS IN THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS.
THE GFS IS ALSO EASING A BIT...BUT DELIVERING THE PRECIP IN A ONE
TWO PUNCH FOR SAT NIGHT/SUN AND MON NIGHT/TUES. FOR NOW...BEST
CHANCES FOR POPS ARE IN THE FORECAST WITH SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
FROM TUES NIGHT THROUGH WED...KEEPING THE FORECAST DRY AT THIS POINT
AS THE MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH A BIT OF FEEDBACK IN WEAK SWRLY
FLOW.
HJS
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 516 AM CST THU MAR 8 2012
COLD FRONT HAS PASSED THROUGH THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING...WITH A
BRIEF LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION. SHOWERS WILL RAMP UP AGAIN EARLY AS
A SHORTWAVE MOVES FROM NORTHERN MO ACROSS CENTRAL IL. SINCE
LIGHTNING HAS DECREASED IN THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...WILL JUST HAVE
SOME VCTS IN THE MORNING. PRECIPITATION MAY MIX WITH LIGHT SNOW OR
LIGHT SLEET AT PIA AS TEMPERATURES FALL THROUGH THE 30S ON THE BACK
EDGE OF THE RAIN SHIELD. THE LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR MODEL HAS A
DECENT HANDLE ON THE CURRENT WEATHER...SO WILL FOLLOW THIS AND
EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO END AT PIA 15Z-16Z...AND AT CMI AROUND 18Z.
CEILINGS/FLIGHT RULES VARY WIDELY OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING...BUT
EXPECT GENERAL MVFR CONDITIONS WITH POSSIBLY IFR IN HEAVIER SHOWERS.
OVERALL EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER
PRECIPITATION ENDS...THEN MAINLY CLEAR SKIES BY 00Z FRI. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL STILL BE ON THE STRONG SIDE TODAY WITH 18-22 KT SUSTAINED
WITH GUSTS ABOVE 30 KT AT TIMES. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH AND BACK
TO WESTERLY AFTER 00Z FRI.
04
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
344 AM CST THU MAR 8 2012
.DISCUSSION...
307 AM CST
THE IMMEDIATE CONCERNS WITH THE FORECAST ARE WITH THE FALLING
TEMPERATURES...AS WELL AS CONTINUED POST FRONTAL SHOWERS AND EVEN
SOME THUNDER CHANCES THIS MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA. THEN ATTENTION TURNS TO RAIN POTENTIAL SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY
THE TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK AS A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP...OR RE-WARM UP
WE SHOULD SAY...LOOKS LIKELY.
FOR THE CURRENT SITUATION...A VERY WELL-DEFINED COLD FRONT IS
CLEARING THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. ROBUSTLY WARM AIR
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE HELPED CHICAGO BREAK THEIR RECORD WARM LOW
FOR YESTERDAY /54 DEGREES/. THE COMBINATION OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
AND RAIN TOOK TEMPERATURES DOWN AS MUCH AS 14 DEGREES IN ONE
HOUR AT SOME LOCATIONS. A GOOD PART OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
POST-FRONTAL...ASSOCIATED WITH ELEVATED MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
STRONG CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. ITS A GOOD THING A LOT OF
THIS IS POST FRONTAL...AS MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT
COULD HAVE POTENTIALLY STEERED DOWN SOME OF THE 55 KT FLOW AT 1500
FT SEEN ON THE KLOT DOPPLER VELOCITY FOR HOURS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
THE NORTHWEST WIND SPEEDS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE ACTUALLY QUITE A
BIT LOWER...GUSTING AT TIMES TO NEAR 25 MPH. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE
TO BE THE CASE INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
AN INTERESTING AREA OF ELEVATED CONVECTION IS SEEN IN NORTHERN MO
AS OF 300 AM HAVING ORIGINATED IN KS WITH A SHORT WAVE PER WATER
VAPOR ANALYSIS. THIS AREA CONTINUES TO GROW UPSCALE EAST
NORTHEAST...WELL BEHIND THE FRONT. RUC AND NAM CROSS SECTIONS
THROUGH THIS AREA SHOW STRONG MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND A VERY
DEEP LAYER /AROUND 200 MB/ OF NEGATIVE EPV AND SLIGHTLY
DECREASING THETA-E...INDICATING CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY PRESENT.
THE RUC FORECAST FOR THE FORCING AND INSTABILITY...AND HRRR
PROJECTION OF REFLECTIVITY...SEEMS TO HAVE A STRONG HANDLE ON
THIS...WHILE MOST OTHER GUIDANCE DOES NOT. THIS AREA IS FORECAST
BY THE RUC/HRRR TO COME ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE CONVECTIVE SIGNAL WEAKENS
SOMEWHAT...BUT STILL THINK ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDER SHOULD BE
SEEN AT LEAST CLOSE IF NOT INTO THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. THERE
COULD BE SOME SMALL HAIL WITH THIS GIVEN THE LOW WET BULB ZERO
VALUES. THIS SHOULD EXIT BY 10 AM TO NOON...WITH LINGERING CLOUDS
BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREA INTO EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON.
COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL UNDERCUT THE MORNING
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS IN THE SOUTH...HELPING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES
NEARLY STEADY OR EVEN CONTINUING TO FALL THROUGH MID-MORNING.
CLEARING BY LATE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
REBOUND...BUT PROBABLY ONLY INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S. CONFIDENCE
ON THE DEGREE OF RECOVERY IS SOMEWHAT LOW DUE TO WEIGHING THE COLD
AIR ADVECTION/CLOUD IMPACT THIS MORNING.
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER MN EARLY THIS MORNING WILL PASS OVER THE
GREAT LAKES AND BE RE-ENFORCED BY A STRONG JET MAX TO THE
NORTHWEST. THIS WILL HELP TO PUSH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT SOUTH
THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT. THIS LOOKS TO
REALLY SEND DEW POINTS DOWN AND POTENTIALLY TEMPERATURES FURTHER
TOO. THE COLD POCKET ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHOULD DEVELOP SOME
STRATOCU TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS THAT MAY
POTENTIALLY LINGER INTO FRI MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY...WITH
RETURN FLOW THEN SETTING UP FOR SATURDAY...WHICH SHOULD BE A
FAIRLY PLEASANT AND SUNNY DAY. THE WELL-ORGANIZED CLOSED UPPER
LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL DRIFT GRADUALLY NORTHEAST ON
SATURDAY...THEN BEGIN TO BECOME MORE NEUTRAL TO NEGATIVELY TILED
AS IT LIFTS OVER OUR AREA ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THIS IS FAIRLY SHORT IN
DURATION...BUT IT CERTAINLY LOOKS TO BE DEEP ENOUGH AND WITHIN
STRONG ENOUGH ISENTROPIC LIFT FOR FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RAIN/SHOWERS
ON SUNDAY. HAVE CONTINUED TO INCH UP POPS. WHILE THE SYSTEM DRY
SLOT EVOLVES RIGHT INTO THE AREA...ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS VERY
MARGINAL DUE TO THE LIMITED DEGREE OF THETA-E RETURN. SO CONTINUE
WITH NO THUNDER MENTION...BUT COULD SEE SOME GUSTIER SHOWERS
POTENTIALLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVE IF THE GFS/EC PAN OUT AS IS.
SO HAVE MENTIONED MORE OF A SHOWER WORDING DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVE BECAUSE OF THIS. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY COULD ENCOMPASS A
FAIRLY LARGE RANGE THANKS TO THE IMPACTS OF THE LIKELY RAIN. WITH
CONFIDENCE INCREASING IN RAIN...HAVE CONTINUED NOT TO INCREASE
TEMPERATURES DESPITE SOME GUIDANCE INDICATING WARMER IN SUCCESSIVE
RUNS.
THE GFS REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH HAVING ANOTHER UPPER
WAVE...ACTUALLY ALMOST A PART OF THE FIRST ONE...MOVE NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE
08.00 EC TRENDED BACK AWAY FROM THIS...BUT HAS BEEN THE LESS
CONSISTENT MODEL. HAVE KEPT POPS ON TUE MAINLY IN SOUTHEAST AREAS
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS WAVE. WHILE THIS COULD HAVE IMPACTS ON
TEMPERATURES ON TUE...A LOW-LEVEL THERMAL TONGUE IS PROJECTED TO
BE KNOCKING ON OUR DOOR FROM THE WEST AND SHOULD PROVIDE FOR ABOVE
TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE STRONGEST SIGNAL FOR VERY
MILD READINGS AND A DRY ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN IS ON WED AT THIS TIME.
AS PREVIOUS SHIFT DID...LEAN THE FORECAST TOWARDS THE BETTER
PERFORMING EC IN THOSE TYPE OF REGIMES. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S
INTO THE 70S ARE CURRENTLY WHAT THIS BLENDED APPROACH PRODUCES
AND SEEMS TO MAKE SENSE. WHILE A FRONT IS PRESENTLY FORECAST TO
MOVE THROUGH SOMETIME LATER WED INTO THU OF NEXT WEEK...IT WOULD
SEEM LIKELY WITH THE PATTERN THAT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.
MTF
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 10Z...
* WEST WINDS SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST THIS MORNING WITH OCNL GUSTS TO
20-25KT.
* OCNL SHOWERS/SPRINKLES/DRIZZLE THROUGH ARND 14Z.
* MVFR AND OCNL IFR CEILINGS THROUGH LATE MORNING.
KREIN
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
ILLINOIS THIS EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD
FRONT...WHICH IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE ROCKFORD AREA. THIS
FRONT WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS ALL OF NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS AND
NORTHWESTERN INDIANA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL
RESULT IN A WIND SWITCH OUT OF THE NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS.
SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY A THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE TERMINALS FOR
A BRIEF PERIOD ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL ZONE. IT APPEARS
THAT THE BEST TIMING FOR CONVECTION WILL WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO AT KRFD...06-09 UTC FOR KORD AND KMDW AND 07 TO 10 UTC AT
KGYY. MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL END DURING THE
PREDAWN HOURS ON THURSDAY MORNING. ASIDE FROM THE POTENTIAL FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW MVFR CIGS OR IFR CIGS AFTER THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT...CIGS SHOULD QUICKLY REBOUND DURING THE
MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY
RETURN.
KJB
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 10Z...
* MODERATE-HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH WIND TRENDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE MORNING AND THROUGH TODAY.
* MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND TRENDS LATER TONIGHT.
* MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN CEILING TRENDS THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIG/VIS TRENDS FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH
TOMORROW MORNING.
KREIN
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
* FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...VFR.
* SUNDAY AND MONDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN. MVFR POSSIBLE.
* TUESDAY...VFR.
KJB
&&
.MARINE...
325 AM CST
SOUTHWEST GALES ARE FINALLY COMING TO AN END OVER THE LAKE! THE
COLD FRONT IS ALMOST THROUGH LAKE MICHIGAN...WITH THE
SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE LAKE STILL AWAITING ITS ARRIVAL. WINDS
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT HAVE DIMINISHED AND TURNED WEST TO
NORTHWEST. THE ABRUPT CHANGE IN WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION HAS
HELPED WAVES QUICKLY DIMINISH IN THE NEAR SHORE ZONES...THEREFORE
NOT ISSUING A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THIS MORNING. WINDS MAY
GUST TO 25 KT FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT NOT LONG ENOUGH
TO WARRANT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.
A WEAKENING LOW MOVES SOUTH OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR WEST MOVES INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. AS THE TWO
SYSTEMS MOVE CLOSER TOGETHER THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
OVERHEAD. THAT COMBINED WITH STRONG PRESSURE RISES WILL CREATE
NORTHWEST GALES OVER THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE LAKE LATE
TONIGHT. GALES WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH FRIDAY MORNING AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE IMMEDIATE AREA. THE HIGH WILL PASS OVER
THE LAKE LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING.
YET ANOTHER ROUND OF GALES IS POSSIBLE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH
PRESSURE SATURDAY MORNING. LOW END GALES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
CENTRAL THIRD OF THE LAKE...WITH GALES UP TO 40 KT LIKELY OVER THE
NORTHERN THIRD OF THE LAKE. NOT ANTICIPATING GALES OVER THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE LAKE. GALES BEGIN TO DIMINISH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH PRESSURE PULLS AWAY TO THE EAST...HOWEVER
GALES OVER THE NORTHERN END OF THE LAKE LOOK LIKE THEY WILL PERSIST
INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
MODELS HAVE SIGNIFICANT DISCREPANCIES IN TIMING AND THE OVERALL
PATTERN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST...SO WHILE NO GALES ARE
FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
JEE
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ740-LMZ741-
LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ870-LMZ872-
LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 UNTIL 4 AM THURSDAY.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
329 AM CST THU MAR 8 2012
.DISCUSSION...
307 AM CST
THE IMMEDIATE CONCERNS WITH THE FORECAST ARE WITH THE FALLING
TEMPERATURES...AS WELL AS CONTINUED POST FRONTAL SHOWERS AND EVEN
SOME THUNDER CHANCES THIS MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA. THEN ATTENTION TURNS TO RAIN POTENTIAL SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY
THE TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK AS A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP...OR RE-WARM UP
WE SHOULD SAY...LOOKS LIKELY.
FOR THE CURRENT SITUATION...A VERY WELL-DEFINED COLD FRONT IS
CLEARING THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. ROBUSTLY WARM AIR
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE HELPED CHICAGO BREAK THEIR RECORD WARM LOW
FOR YESTERDAY /54 DEGREES/. THE COMBINATION OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
AND RAIN TOOK TEMPERATURES DOWN AS MUCH AS 14 DEGREES IN ONE
HOUR AT SOME LOCATIONS. A GOOD PART OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
POST-FRONTAL...ASSOCIATED WITH ELEVATED MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
STRONG CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. ITS A GOOD THING A LOT OF
THIS IS POST FRONTAL...AS MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT
COULD HAVE POTENTIALLY STEERED DOWN SOME OF THE 55 KT FLOW AT 1500
FT SEEN ON THE KLOT DOPPLER VELOCITY FOR HOURS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
THE NORTHWEST WIND SPEEDS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE ACTUALLY QUITE A
BIT LOWER...GUSTING AT TIMES TO NEAR 25 MPH. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE
TO BE THE CASE INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
AN INTERESTING AREA OF ELEVATED CONVECTION IS SEEN IN NORTHERN MO
AS OF 300 AM HAVING ORIGINATED IN KS WITH A SHORT WAVE PER WATER
VAPOR ANALYSIS. THIS AREA CONTINUES TO GROW UPSCALE EAST
NORTHEAST...WELL BEHIND THE FRONT. RUC AND NAM CROSS SECTIONS
THROUGH THIS AREA SHOW STRONG MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND A VERY
DEEP LAYER /AROUND 200 MB/ OF NEGATIVE EPV AND SLIGHTLY
DECREASING THETA-E...INDICATING CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY PRESENT.
THE RUC FORECAST FOR THE FORCING AND INSTABILITY...AND HRRR
PROJECTION OF REFLECTIVITY...SEEMS TO HAVE A STRONG HANDLE ON
THIS...WHILE MOST OTHER GUIDANCE DOES NOT. THIS AREA IS FORECAST
BY THE RUC/HRRR TO COME ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE CONVECTIVE SIGNAL WEAKENS
SOMEWHAT...BUT STILL THINK ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDER SHOULD BE
SEEN AT LEAST CLOSE IF NOT INTO THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. THERE
COULD BE SOME SMALL HAIL WITH THIS GIVEN THE LOW WET BULB ZERO
VALUES. THIS SHOULD EXIT BY 10 AM TO NOON...WITH LINGERING CLOUDS
BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREA INTO EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON.
COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL UNDERCUT THE MORNING
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS IN THE SOUTH...HELPING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES
NEARLY STEADY OR EVEN CONTINUING TO FALL THROUGH MID-MORNING.
CLEARING BY LATE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
REBOUND...BUT PROBABLY ONLY INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S. CONFIDENCE
ON THE DEGREE OF RECOVERY IS SOMEWHAT LOW DUE TO WEIGHING THE COLD
AIR ADVECTION/CLOUD IMPACT THIS MORNING.
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER MN EARLY THIS MORNING WILL PASS OVER THE
GREAT LAKES AND BE RE-ENFORCED BY A STRONG JET MAX TO THE
NORTHWEST. THIS WILL HELP TO PUSH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT SOUTH
THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT. THIS LOOKS TO
REALLY SEND DEW POINTS DOWN AND POTENTIALLY TEMPERATURES FURTHER
TOO. THE COLD POCKET ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHOULD DEVELOP SOME
STRATOCU TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS THAT MAY
POTENTIALLY LINGER INTO FRI MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY...WITH
RETURN FLOW THEN SETTING UP FOR SATURDAY...WHICH SHOULD BE A
FAIRLY PLEASANT AND SUNNY DAY. THE WELL-ORGANIZED CLOSED UPPER
LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL DRIFT GRADUALLY NORTHEAST ON
SATURDAY...THEN BEGIN TO BECOME MORE NEUTRAL TO NEGATIVELY TILED
AS IT LIFTS OVER OUR AREA ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THIS IS FAIRLY SHORT IN
DURATION...BUT IT CERTAINLY LOOKS TO BE DEEP ENOUGH AND WITHIN
STRONG ENOUGH ISENTROPIC LIFT FOR FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RAIN/SHOWERS
ON SUNDAY. HAVE CONTINUED TO INCH UP POPS. WHILE THE SYSTEM DRY
SLOT EVOLVES RIGHT INTO THE AREA...ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS VERY
MARGINAL DUE TO THE LIMITED DEGREE OF THETA-E RETURN. SO CONTINUE
WITH NO THUNDER MENTION...BUT COULD SEE SOME GUSTIER SHOWERS
POTENTIALLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVE IF THE GFS/EC PAN OUT AS IS.
SO HAVE MENTIONED MORE OF A SHOWER WORDING DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVE BECAUSE OF THIS. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY COULD ENCOMPASS A
FAIRLY LARGE RANGE THANKS TO THE IMPACTS OF THE LIKELY RAIN. WITH
CONFIDENCE INCREASING IN RAIN...HAVE CONTINUED NOT TO INCREASE
TEMPERATURES DESPITE SOME GUIDANCE INDICATING WARMER IN SUCCESSIVE
RUNS.
THE GFS REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH HAVING ANOTHER UPPER
WAVE...ACTUALLY ALMOST A PART OF THE FIRST ONE...MOVE NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE
08.00 EC TRENDED BACK AWAY FROM THIS...BUT HAS BEEN THE LESS
CONSISTENT MODEL. HAVE KEPT POPS ON TUE MAINLY IN SOUTHEAST AREAS
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS WAVE. WHILE THIS COULD HAVE IMPACTS ON
TEMPERATURES ON TUE...A LOW-LEVEL THERMAL TONGUE IS PROJECTED TO
BE KNOCKING ON OUR DOOR FROM THE WEST AND SHOULD PROVIDE FOR ABOVE
TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE STRONGEST SIGNAL FOR VERY
MILD READINGS AND A DRY ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN IS ON WED AT THIS TIME.
AS PREVIOUS SHIFT DID...LEAN THE FORECAST TOWARDS THE BETTER
PERFORMING EC IN THOSE TYPE OF REGIMES. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S
INTO THE 70S ARE CURRENTLY WHAT THIS BLENDED APPROACH PRODUCES
AND SEEMS TO MAKE SENSE. WHILE A FRONT IS PRESENTLY FORECAST TO
MOVE THROUGH SOMETIME LATER WED INTO THU OF NEXT WEEK...IT WOULD
SEEM LIKELY WITH THE PATTERN THAT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.
MTF
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* WINDS SHIFTING TO WEST NORTHWEST BETWEEN 08 AND 09 UTC TONIGHT
WITH FROPA.
* PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER
FOR A SHORT PERIOD THROUGH 09 UTC.
* MVFR/IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE FOLLOWING THE FROPA.
KJB
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
ILLINOIS THIS EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD
FRONT...WHICH IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE ROCKFORD AREA. THIS
FRONT WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS ALL OF NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS AND
NORTHWESTERN INDIANA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL
RESULT IN A WIND SWITCH OUT OF THE NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS.
SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY A THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE TERMINALS FOR
A BRIEF PERIOD ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL ZONE. IT APPEARS
THAT THE BEST TIMING FOR CONVECTION WILL WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO AT KRFD...06-09 UTC FOR KORD AND KMDW AND 07 TO 10 UTC AT
KGYY. MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL END DURING THE
PREDAWN HOURS ON THURSDAY MORNING. ASIDE FROM THE POTENTIAL FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW MVFR CIGS OR IFR CIGS AFTER THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT...CIGS SHOULD QUICKLY REBOUND DURING THE
MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY
RETURN.
KJB
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH WIND SPEED/GUSTS AND DIRECTION...AND WITH
WIND SHIFT WITH FROPA.
* LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE WITH THUNDER TRENDS/TIMING.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH MVFR CEILINGS TONIGHT AND MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS LATER TONIGHT.
KJB
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
* FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...VFR.
* SUNDAY AND MONDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN. MVFR POSSIBLE.
* TUESDAY...VFR.
KJB
&&
.MARINE...
325 AM CST
SOUTHWEST GALES ARE FINALLY COMING TO AN END OVER THE LAKE! THE
COLD FRONT IS ALMOST THROUGH LAKE MICHIGAN...WITH THE
SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE LAKE STILL AWAITING ITS ARRIVAL. WINDS
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT HAVE DIMINISHED AND TURNED WEST TO
NORTHWEST. THE ABRUPT CHANGE IN WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION HAS
HELPED WAVES QUICKLY DIMINISH IN THE NEAR SHORE ZONES...THEREFORE
NOT ISSUING A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THIS MORNING. WINDS MAY
GUST TO 25 KT FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT NOT LONG ENOUGH
TO WARRANT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.
A WEAKENING LOW MOVES SOUTH OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR WEST MOVES INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. AS THE TWO
SYSTEMS MOVE CLOSER TOGETHER THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
OVERHEAD. THAT COMBINED WITH STRONG PRESSURE RISES WILL CREATE
NORTHWEST GALES OVER THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE LAKE LATE
TONIGHT. GALES WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH FRIDAY MORNING AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE IMMEDIATE AREA. THE HIGH WILL PASS OVER
THE LAKE LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING.
YET ANOTHER ROUND OF GALES IS POSSIBLE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH
PRESSURE SATURDAY MORNING. LOW END GALES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
CENTRAL THIRD OF THE LAKE...WITH GALES UP TO 40 KT LIKELY OVER THE
NORTHERN THIRD OF THE LAKE. NOT ANTICIPATING GALES OVER THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE LAKE. GALES BEGIN TO DIMINISH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH PRESSURE PULLS AWAY TO THE EAST...HOWEVER
GALES OVER THE NORTHERN END OF THE LAKE LOOK LIKE THEY WILL PERSIST
INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
MODELS HAVE SIGNIFICANT DISCREPANCIES IN TIMING AND THE OVERALL
PATTERN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST...SO WHILE NO GALES ARE
FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
JEE
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ740-LMZ741-
LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ870-LMZ872-
LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 UNTIL 4 AM THURSDAY.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
308 AM CST THU MAR 8 2012
.DISCUSSION...
307 AM CST
THE IMMEDIATE CONCERNS WITH THE FORECAST ARE WITH THE FALLING
TEMPERATURES...AS WELL AS CONTINUED POST FRONTAL SHOWERS AND EVEN
SOME THUNDER CHANCES THIS MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA. THEN ATTENTION TURNS TO RAIN POTENTIAL SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY
THE TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK AS A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP...OR RE-WARM UP
WE SHOULD SAY...LOOKS LIKELY.
FOR THE CURRENT SITUATION...A VERY WELL-DEFINED COLD FRONT IS
CLEARING THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. ROBUSTLY WARM AIR
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE HELPED CHICAGO BREAK THEIR RECORD WARM LOW
FOR YESTERDAY /54 DEGREES/. THE COMBINATION OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
AND RAIN TOOK TEMPERATURES DOWN AS MUCH AS 14 DEGREES IN ONE
HOUR AT SOME LOCATIONS. A GOOD PART OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
POST-FRONTAL...ASSOCIATED WITH ELEVATED MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
STRONG CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. ITS A GOOD THING A LOT OF
THIS IS POST FRONTAL...AS MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT
COULD HAVE POTENTIALLY STEERED DOWN SOME OF THE 55 KT FLOW AT 1500
FT SEEN ON THE KLOT DOPPLER VELOCITY FOR HOURS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
THE NORTHWEST WIND SPEEDS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE ACTUALLY QUITE A
BIT LOWER...GUSTING AT TIMES TO NEAR 25 MPH. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE
TO BE THE CASE INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
AN INTERESTING AREA OF ELEVATED CONVECTION IS SEEN IN NORTHERN MO
AS OF 300 AM HAVING ORIGINATED IN KS WITH A SHORT WAVE PER WATER
VAPOR ANALYSIS. THIS AREA CONTINUES TO GROW UPSCALE EAST
NORTHEAST...WELL BEHIND THE FRONT. RUC AND NAM CROSS SECTIONS
THROUGH THIS AREA SHOW STRONG MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND A VERY
DEEP LAYER /AROUND 200 MB/ OF NEGATIVE EPV AND SLIGHTLY
DECREASING THETA-E...INDICATING CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY PRESENT.
THE RUC FORECAST FOR THE FORCING AND INSTABILITY...AND HRRR
PROJECTION OF REFLECTIVITY...SEEMS TO HAVE A STRONG HANDLE ON
THIS...WHILE MOST OTHER GUIDANCE DOES NOT. THIS AREA IS FORECAST
BY THE RUC/HRRR TO COME ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE CONVECTIVE SIGNAL WEAKENS
SOMEWHAT...BUT STILL THINK ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDER SHOULD BE
SEEN AT LEAST CLOSE IF NOT INTO THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. THERE
COULD BE SOME SMALL HAIL WITH THIS GIVEN THE LOW WET BULB ZERO
VALUES. THIS SHOULD EXIT BY 10 AM TO NOON...WITH LINGERING CLOUDS
BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREA INTO EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON.
COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL UNDERCUT THE MORNING
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS IN THE SOUTH...HELPING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES
NEARLY STEADY OR EVEN CONTINUING TO FALL THROUGH MID-MORNING.
CLEARING BY LATE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
REBOUND...BUT PROBABLY ONLY INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S. CONFIDENCE
ON THE DEGREE OF RECOVERY IS SOMEWHAT LOW DUE TO WEIGHING THE COLD
AIR ADVECTION/CLOUD IMPACT THIS MORNING.
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER MN EARLY THIS MORNING WILL PASS OVER THE
GREAT LAKES AND BE RE-ENFORCED BY A STRONG JET MAX TO THE
NORTHWEST. THIS WILL HELP TO PUSH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT SOUTH
THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT. THIS LOOKS TO
REALLY SEND DEW POINTS DOWN AND POTENTIALLY TEMPERATURES FURTHER
TOO. THE COLD POCKET ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHOULD DEVELOP SOME
STRATOCU TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS THAT MAY
POTENTIALLY LINGER INTO FRI MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY...WITH
RETURN FLOW THEN SETTING UP FOR SATURDAY...WHICH SHOULD BE A
FAIRLY PLEASANT AND SUNNY DAY. THE WELL-ORGANIZED CLOSED UPPER
LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL DRIFT GRADUALLY NORTHEAST ON
SATURDAY...THEN BEGIN TO BECOME MORE NEUTRAL TO NEGATIVELY TILED
AS IT LIFTS OVER OUR AREA ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THIS IS FAIRLY SHORT IN
DURATION...BUT IT CERTAINLY LOOKS TO BE DEEP ENOUGH AND WITHIN
STRONG ENOUGH ISENTROPIC LIFT FOR FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RAIN/SHOWERS
ON SUNDAY. HAVE CONTINUED TO INCH UP POPS. WHILE THE SYSTEM DRY
SLOT EVOLVES RIGHT INTO THE AREA...ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS VERY
MARGINAL DUE TO THE LIMITED DEGREE OF THETA-E RETURN. SO CONTINUE
WITH NO THUNDER MENTION...BUT COULD SEE SOME GUSTIER SHOWERS
POTENTIALLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVE IF THE GFS/EC PAN OUT AS IS.
SO HAVE MENTIONED MORE OF A SHOWER WORDING DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVE BECAUSE OF THIS. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY COULD ENCOMPASS A
FAIRLY LARGE RANGE THANKS TO THE IMPACTS OF THE LIKELY RAIN. WITH
CONFIDENCE INCREASING IN RAIN...HAVE CONTINUED NOT TO INCREASE
TEMPERATURES DESPITE SOME GUIDANCE INDICATING WARMER IN SUCCESSIVE
RUNS.
THE GFS REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH HAVING ANOTHER UPPER
WAVE...ACTUALLY ALMOST A PART OF THE FIRST ONE...MOVE NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE
08.00 EC TRENDED BACK AWAY FROM THIS...BUT HAS BEEN THE LESS
CONSISTENT MODEL. HAVE KEPT POPS ON TUE MAINLY IN SOUTHEAST AREAS
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS WAVE. WHILE THIS COULD HAVE IMPACTS ON
TEMPERATURES ON TUE...A LOW-LEVEL THERMAL TONGUE IS PROJECTED TO
BE KNOCKING ON OUR DOOR FROM THE WEST AND SHOULD PROVIDE FOR ABOVE
TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE STRONGEST SIGNAL FOR VERY
MILD READINGS AND A DRY ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN IS ON WED AT THIS TIME.
AS PREVIOUS SHIFT DID...LEAN THE FORECAST TOWARDS THE BETTER
PERFORMING EC IN THOSE TYPE OF REGIMES. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S
INTO THE 70S ARE CURRENTLY WHAT THIS BLENDED APPROACH PRODUCES
AND SEEMS TO MAKE SENSE. WHILE A FRONT IS PRESENTLY FORECAST TO
MOVE THROUGH SOMETIME LATER WED INTO THU OF NEXT WEEK...IT WOULD
SEEM LIKELY WITH THE PATTERN THAT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.
MTF
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* WINDS SHIFTING TO WEST NORTHWEST BETWEEN 08 AND 09 UTC TONIGHT
WITH FROPA.
* PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER
FOR A SHORT PERIOD THROUGH 09 UTC.
* MVFR/IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE FOLLOWING THE FROPA.
KJB
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
ILLINOIS THIS EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD
FRONT...WHICH IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE ROCKFORD AREA. THIS
FRONT WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS ALL OF NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS AND
NORTHWESTERN INDIANA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL
RESULT IN A WIND SWITCH OUT OF THE NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS.
SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY A THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE TERMINALS FOR
A BRIEF PERIOD ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL ZONE. IT APPEARS
THAT THE BEST TIMING FOR CONVECTION WILL WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO AT KRFD...06-09 UTC FOR KORD AND KMDW AND 07 TO 10 UTC AT
KGYY. MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL END DURING THE
PREDAWN HOURS ON THURSDAY MORNING. ASIDE FROM THE POTENTIAL FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW MVFR CIGS OR IFR CIGS AFTER THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT...CIGS SHOULD QUICKLY REBOUND DURING THE
MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY
RETURN.
KJB
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH WIND SPEED/GUSTS AND DIRECTION...AND WITH
WIND SHIFT WITH FROPA.
* LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE WITH THUNDER TRENDS/TIMING.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH MVFR CEILINGS TONIGHT AND MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS LATER TONIGHT.
KJB
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
* FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...VFR.
* SUNDAY AND MONDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN. MVFR POSSIBLE.
* TUESDAY...VFR.
KJB
&&
.MARINE...
150 PM CST
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR WITH
ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN U.P.
OF MICHIGAN AND EASTERN WISCONSIN. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS
TIGHT ACROSS THE LAKE WITH SOUTHERLY GALES CONTINUING...ESPECIALLY
CLOSER TO THE LEE SHORE WHERE BETTER MIXING IS BEING ADVECTED OFF
THE LAND. THE LOW WILL DEEPEN THIS EVENING AS IT MOVES INTO WESTERN
QUEBEC WHICH WILL HELP FURTHER TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE LAKE AND AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. THE
GRADIENT MAY RELAX JUST SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL TROUGH ACROSS
THE SOUTH HALF OF THE LAKE SO WINDS MAY EASE A BIT THIS EVENING
BEFORE THE FRONT PASSES. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES TONIGHT WINDS WILL
FLIP TO THE WEST THEN NORTHWEST WITH SPEEDS DIMINISHING AS THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW WEAKENS. SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW GALES BY LATE
EVENING OR EARLY TONIGHT NORTH AND EARLY TONIGHT SOUTH THOUGH
GUSTS WILL PROBABLY REMAIN IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE IF NOT CLOSE TO
30 KT AT TIMES.
WINDS WILL SHIFT WESTERLY THURSDAY AS A WEAKER LOW DROPS
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL ONTARIO AND HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE LAKE RESULTING
IN DEEP MIXING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THESE TWO
SYSTEMS THURSDAY EVENING. EXPECT GUSTS TO 30 KT WITH POTENTIAL FOR
35 KT GALES AS WELL FOR AT LEAST A FEW HOURS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH CRESTS THE LAKE BUT WINDS WILL
FLIP TO THE SOUTH AND QUICKLY RAMP UP FRIDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY
NORTH. WITH WARMER AIR MOVING BACK OVER THE LAKE STABILITY WILL
BECOME A CONCERN IN TERMS OF GUST POTENTIAL BUT MID RANGE GALES LOOK
POSSIBLE NORTH WITH SUB GALE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED SOUTH. SPEEDS
SHOULD EASE LATER SATURDAY WHILE REMAINING SOUTHERLY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL THEN LIFT ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING BUT
THE TRACK IS NOT YET CLEAR SO CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED
IS LOW BY THIS TIME.
MDB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ740-LMZ741-
LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ870-LMZ872-
LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 UNTIL 4 AM THURSDAY.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
1213 PM EST THU MAR 8 2012
.AVIATION... / 18Z TAFS /
POST-FRONTAL RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
MVFR CIGS THROUGH 20/21Z. DRY SUBSIDENT AIR WILL ADVECT IN FROM
THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL LIKELY SCOUR OUT THIS MVFR
CEILING LEAVING MAINLY CLEAR/VFR SKIES BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. PARTIAL CLEARING AND RESULTING DEEPER MIXING WILL ALLOW
WINDS TO PICK UP BY MID AFTN...WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KNOTS POSSIBLE
THROUGH APPX 00Z. A SECONDARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DROP THROUGH
THE AREA LATER TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL CAA AND NORTHWESTERLY
TRAJECTORIES BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL ALLOW A LAKE EFFECT STRATO CU
DECK TO SET UP OVER THE TERMINALS TOMORROW MORNING. ATTM...MODEL
FCST SOUNDINGS ARE HINTING AT LOW VFR CEILINGS BTW 3-5 KFT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 AM EST THU MAR 8 2012/
SHORT TERM...
STRONG COLD FRONT WAS JUST COMING INTO FAR NW CWA AT 09Z AND WILL
QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. RADAR SHOWING AREA OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE SHOWERS ALONG AND BEHIND FRONT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS OUT
AHEAD OF IT. SURFACE OBS SHOWING A GOOD 10 TO 15 DEGREE TEMP DROP
BEHIND FRONT WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE DAY WITH LITTLE RECOVERY IN TEMPS EXPECTED. HAVE TRIED TO TIME
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURE DROP AND PCPN TRENDS. VERY
DIFFICULT TO SAY THE LEAST AND ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE NECESSARY THROUGH
THE MORNING. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC AND SATELLITE ALSO SHOWING AN
AREA OF CONVECTION THAT HAS DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT IN OK AND KS AND IS
MOVING NORTHEAST. HRRR SEEMS TO BE ONLY MODEL TO HAVE A DECENT
HANDLE ON THIS WITH 04Z AND 05Z MODEL RUNS HAVING THIS WAVE COMING
INTO NW INDIANA AROUND 14Z. DISCUSSION WITH HPC SUGGEST 06Z RUN
TRENDING FARTHER EAST BUT GIVEN LOOKS OF RESPONSIBLE SHORT WAVE ON
WATER VAPOR AND RECENT RADAR MOSAIC TRENDS HAVE CONCERNS THAT THIS
MAY MOVE BACK INTO PART OF CENTRAL OR WEST CENTRAL CWA BY MID
MORNING. FOR THIS REASON HAVE SLOWED THE TREND OF CLEARING POPS
ACROSS THE AREA BY ABOUT 3 TO 5 HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY
OF THIS RAIN MOVING BACK IN. BY AFTERNOON THIS WAVE LOOKS TO CLEAR
THE AREA AND RAPID DRYING BEGINS AND SHOULD SEE CLEARING SKIES.
ANOTHER FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE PASSES TO THE NORTH TONIGHT BUT
DRIVES SECONDARY COLD FRONT THROUGH. MAY SEE SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS
NORTH WITH THIS WAVE AND LAKE PLUME AS DELTA T VALUES CLIMB INTO THE
TEENS. REMAINDER OF SHORT TERM FORECAST DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING IN FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW WINDS TO DECOUPLE AND
EXPECT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING BEFORE RETURN FLOW TRIES TO DEVELOP
LATE. HAVE LOWERED TEMPS FRIDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A LONG WAVE TROF WILL BECOME ENTRENCHED
ALONG THE WESTERN NORTH AMERICAN COAST WITH LARGE SCALE
AMPLIFICATION DOWNSTREAM OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS. MUCH
WARMER AIR WILL RETURN TO THE AREA AND PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL EJECT NORTHEAST AND PROVIDE A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD AS GULF MOISTURE SPREADS NORTH
ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE FINALLY COME
INTO REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH ONE ANOTHER WITH MUCH SMALLER
STANDARD DEVIATIONS REFLECTED IN THE MEX MOS. THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR HIGHS TO TOP 70 DEGREES DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THIS PERIOD.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR CLOUDS AND RAINFALL...KEPT HIGHS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. ALSO...THERE IS AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE ONE OF THE SHORTWAVES MAY BE ABLE TO TAP A LITTLE
COOLER AIR AFTER THE SHORT WAVE PASSES.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST FRIDAY FOR LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...LASHLEY
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
640 AM EST THU MAR 8 2012
.AVIATION...
FRONT WORKING THROUGH AREA WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST IN ITS
WAKE. AREA OF PRECIPITATION ALONG FRONT ALSO WORKING EAST. WILL HAVE
TO WATCH AREA OF POST FRONTAL PCPN THAT HAS BEEN WORKING NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT AND WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO KFWA BY 14 TO 15Z WITH MVFR
RESTRICTIONS. SKIES CLEAR LATER TODAY WITH DRIER AIR. SECONDARY WAVE
DROPS INTO AREA LATER TONIGHT WITH INCREASE IN CLOUDS BUT SHOULD BE
VFR.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
STRONG COLD FRONT WAS JUST COMING INTO FAR NW CWA AT 09Z AND WILL
QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. RADAR SHOWING AREA OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE SHOWERS ALONG AND BEHIND FRONT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS OUT
AHEAD OF IT. SURFACE OBS SHOWING A GOOD 10 TO 15 DEGREE TEMP DROP
BEHIND FRONT WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE DAY WITH LITTLE RECOVERY IN TEMPS EXPECTED. HAVE TRIED TO TIME
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURE DROP AND PCPN TRENDS. VERY
DIFFICULT TO SAY THE LEAST AND ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE NECESSARY THROUGH
THE MORNING. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC AND SATELLITE ALSO SHOWING AN
AREA OF CONVECTION THAT HAS DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT IN OK AND KS AND IS
MOVING NORTHEAST. HRRR SEEMS TO BE ONLY MODEL TO HAVE A DECENT
HANDLE ON THIS WITH 04Z AND 05Z MODEL RUNS HAVING THIS WAVE COMING
INTO NW INDIANA AROUND 14Z. DISCUSSION WITH HPC SUGGEST 06Z RUN
TRENDING FARTHER EAST BUT GIVEN LOOKS OF RESPONSIBLE SHORT WAVE ON
WATER VAPOR AND RECENT RADAR MOSAIC TRENDS HAVE CONCERNS THAT THIS
MAY MOVE BACK INTO PART OF CENTRAL OR WEST CENTRAL CWA BY MID
MORNING. FOR THIS REASON HAVE SLOWED THE TREND OF CLEARING POPS
ACROSS THE AREA BY ABOUT 3 TO 5 HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY
OF THIS RAIN MOVING BACK IN. BY AFTERNOON THIS WAVE LOOKS TO CLEAR
THE AREA AND RAPID DRYING BEGINS AND SHOULD SEE CLEARING SKIES.
ANOTHER FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE PASSES TO THE NORTH TONIGHT BUT
DRIVES SECONDARY COLD FRONT THROUGH. MAY SEE SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS
NORTH WITH THIS WAVE AND LAKE PLUME AS DELTA T VALUES CLIMB INTO THE
TEENS. REMAINDER OF SHORT TERM FORECAST DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING IN FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW WINDS TO DECOUPLE AND
EXPECT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING BEFORE RETURN FLOW TRIES TO DEVELOP
LATE. HAVE LOWERED TEMPS FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A LONG WAVE TROF WILL BECOME ENTRENCHED
ALONG THE WESTERN NORTH AMERICAN COAST WITH LARGE SCALE
AMPLIFICATION DOWNSTREAM OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS. MUCH
WARMER AIR WILL RETURN TO THE AREA AND PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL EJECT NORTHEAST AND PROVIDE A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD AS GULF MOISTURE SPREADS NORTH
ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE FINALLY COME
INTO REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH ONE ANOTHER WITH MUCH SMALLER
STANDARD DEVIATIONS REFLECTED IN THE MEX MOS. THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR HIGHS TO TOP 70 DEGREES DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THIS PERIOD.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR CLOUDS AND RAINFALL...KEPT HIGHS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. ALSO...THERE IS AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE ONE OF THE SHORTWAVES MAY BE ABLE TO TAP A LITTLE
COOLER AIR AFTER THE SHORT WAVE PASSES.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST FRIDAY FOR LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...LASHLEY
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...LASHLEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
453 AM EST THU MAR 8 2012
.SHORT TERM...
STRONG COLD FRONT WAS JUST COMING INTO FAR NW CWA AT 09Z AND WILL
QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. RADAR SHOWING AREA OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE SHOWERS ALONG AND BEHIND FRONT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS OUT
AHEAD OF IT. SURFACE OBS SHOWING A GOOD 10 TO 15 DEGREE TEMP DROP
BEHIND FRONT WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE DAY WITH LITTLE RECOVERY IN TEMPS EXPECTED. HAVE TRIED TO TIME
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURE DROP AND PCPN TRENDS. VERY
DIFFICULT TO SAY THE LEAST AND ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE NECESSARY THROUGH
THE MORNING. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC AND SATELLITE ALSO SHOWING AN
AREA OF CONVECTION THAT HAS DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT IN OK AND KS AND IS
MOVING NORTHEAST. HRRR SEEMS TO BE ONLY MODEL TO HAVE A DECENT
HANDLE ON THIS WITH 04Z AND 05Z MODEL RUNS HAVING THIS WAVE COMING
INTO NW INDIANA AROUND 14Z. DISCUSSION WITH HPC SUGGEST 06Z RUN
TRENDING FARTHER EAST BUT GIVEN LOOKS OF RESPONSIBLE SHORT WAVE ON
WATER VAPOR AND RECENT RADAR MOSAIC TRENDS HAVE CONCERNS THAT THIS
MAY MOVE BACK INTO PART OF CENTRAL OR WEST CENTRAL CWA BY MID
MORNING. FOR THIS REASON HAVE SLOWED THE TREND OF CLEARING POPS
ACROSS THE AREA BY ABOUT 3 TO 5 HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY
OF THIS RAIN MOVING BACK IN. BY AFTERNOON THIS WAVE LOOKS TO CLEAR
THE AREA AND RAPID DRYING BEGINS AND SHOULD SEE CLEARING SKIES.
ANOTHER FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE PASSES TO THE NORTH TONIGHT BUT
DRIVES SECONDARY COLD FRONT THROUGH. MAY SEE SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS
NORTH WITH THIS WAVE AND LAKE PLUME AS DELTA T VALUES CLIMB INTO THE
TEENS. REMAINDER OF SHORT TERM FORECAST DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING IN FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW WINDS TO DECOUPLE AND
EXPECT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING BEFORE RETURN FLOW TRIES TO DEVELOP
LATE. HAVE LOWERED TEMPS FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A LONG WAVE TROF WILL BECOME ENTRENCHED
ALONG THE WESTERN NORTH AMERICAN COAST WITH LARGE SCALE
AMPLIFICATION DOWNSTREAM OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS. MUCH
WARMER AIR WILL RETURN TO THE AREA AND PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL EJECT NORTHEAST AND PROVIDE A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD AS GULF MOISTURE SPREADS NORTH
ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE FINALLY COME
INTO REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH ONE ANOTHER WITH MUCH SMALLER
STANDARD DEVIATIONS REFLECTED IN THE MEX MOS. THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR HIGHS TO TOP 70 DEGREES DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THIS PERIOD.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR CLOUDS AND RAINFALL...KEPT HIGHS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. ALSO...THERE IS AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE ONE OF THE SHORTWAVES MAY BE ABLE TO TAP A LITTLE
COOLER AIR AFTER THE SHORT WAVE PASSES.
&&
.AVIATION...
CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE NEXT FEW HOURS AHEAD OF POTENT COLD FRONT.
THETA E ADVECTION ONGOING WITH MOISTURE POOLED ALONG FRONT. RADAR
SHOWING LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING TOWARD TAF SITES AND
SATELLITE/OBS INDICATE MVFR AND OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS. CANNOT
RULE OUT VERY ISOLATED THUNDER SO LEFT CB MENTION IN. PCPN SHOULD
END FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY BEGINNING AROUND 12 TO 14Z AT KSBN
AND 15 TO 17Z AT KFWA. MVFR CLOUDS WILL LINGER AFTER FROPA BUT DRIER
AIR IN THE AFTERNOON SHOULD SCOUR THINGS OUT. A WEAK SHORT WAVE
TONIGHT COUPLED WITH FLOW DEVELOPING OFF LAKE MICHIGAN WITH DELTA T
VALUES IN LOWER TEENS SUGGEST POSSIBLE LAKE CLOUD DEVELOPMENT LATE
IN THE PERIOD.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST FRIDAY FOR LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...LASHLEY
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...LASHLEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED AVIATION DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
310 PM CST THU MAR 8 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS AN 850MB COLD FRONT FROM SOUTHERN LAKE HURON INTO
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. A BIT MORE IMPRESSIVE IS THE 700MB COLD FRONT
FROM THE MACKINAC STRAITS INTO SOUTHEAST COLORADO. A STRONG LLJ WAS
TRANSPORTING MOISTURE FROM THE GULF COAST INTO NEW ENGLAND. SATELLITE
TRENDS HAVE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY. LOW LEVEL SC/CU WERE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A SHORTWAVE ROTATING ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA TOWARD
WISCONSIN.
18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS THE PRIMARY FRONT FROM TEXAS INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY WITH SEVERAL WEAK TROFS FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. A NEW COLD FRONT WAS DROPPING SOUTH FROM CANADA AND WAS INTO
NORTH DAKOTA AND MINNESOTA. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE TEENS AND 20S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDWEST WHILE 40S AND GREATER DEW POINTS RAN FROM
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...
THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED PV ANOMALY IS MOVING INTO SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN. THESE FEATURES COMBINED WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
HELPED PRODUCE THE STRONG WINDS STARTING AROUND MID DAY. AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES WITH SUNSET THE WINDS WILL DECREASE.
LATER TONIGHT A STORM SYSTEM WILL PASS NORTH OF THE AREA BUT WILL
DRAG ANOTHER COLD FRONT/BOUNDARY THROUGH THE AREA. THUS CLOUDS WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE LATER THIS EVENING. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES...
STRONG SUBSIDENCE SHOULD START BREAKING UP THE CLOUDS PRIOR TO
SUNRISE. THE RUC DOES INDICATE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES GETTING STEEPER
LATE TONIGHT SO THE SUBSIDENCE SHOULD ALLOW WINDS TO PICK UP AGAIN
BEFORE DECREASING AGAIN PRIOR TO SUNRISE.
ON FRIDAY HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA RESULTING IN MUCH
LIGHTER WINDS AND GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES. SUBSIDENCE WILL LIMIT THE
AMOUNT OF MIXING THAT OCCURS BUT THE STRONG MARCH SUN SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO BE SIMILAR TO THURSDAY. ..08..
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY...
CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH A LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN EVENT LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
OVERALL...INITIALIZATION AND VERIFICATION SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE WITH
SIGNFICANT DISCREPANCIES OF TEXAS CONVECTION. THIS WILL IMPACT THE
TIMING...EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF UPPER LOW FOR LATE SUNDAY. THIS IS
HANDLED ADEQUATELY BY A BLEND OF THE HI-RES ECMWF AND GFS BUT COLD
FRONTAL EVOLUTION SUGGESTS A BIT FASTER TRACK AND QUICKER OCCLUSION
THAT MAY BECOMEM EVIDENT THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH FASTER STARTING OF
RAIN ON SUNDAY AND IN NW SECTIONS...LIGHTER AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITION.
FRIDAY NIGHT...TRIMMED LOWS A FEW DEGREES IN EASTERN SECTIONS DUE TO
LIGHT SE WINDS ALLOWING FOR A BIT OF DECOUPLE UNDER A CLEAR SKY WITH
MIDDLE 20S POSSIBLE FOR LATER SHIFTS AND A DECENTR FROST ALONGAND
EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
SATURDAY...WARMING TREND WITH INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AND
COPIOUS SUNSHINE. UPPED HIGHS TO AROUND 60F WESTERN SECTIONS AND
MIDDLE 50S EAST. IF ENOUGH BL MIXING OCCURS AS SUGGESTED...MAX TEMPS
MAY STILL BE A FEW DEGREES TOO COOL. MINS SATURDAY NIGHT MAY BE
AROUND MIDNIGHT BEFORE HIGH CLOUDS ARRIVE WITH UPPER 30S NORTH AND
LOWER TO POSSIBLY MIDDLE 40S SOUTH SECTIONS.
SUNDAY...AREAS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA WITH
AMOUNTS MOSTLY A QUARTER TO LOCALLY AROUND A HALF INCH. CLOUDS AND
EVAPORATIVE COOLING TO KEEP HIGHS IN THE 50S THAT MAY FALL INTO THE
40S WITH PERIODS OF RAIN. TIMING QUESTION PRECLUDES GOING MORE THAN
LIKELY WITH BULK OF RAIN SUGGESTED BETWEEN 21-09Z ATTM. SUNDAY NIGHT
MINS MILD MOSTLY IN THE MIDDLE 40S DUE TO HIGH DEWPOINTS AND RH
VALUES WITH LIGHT FOG NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR LATER SHIFTS.
MONDAY...CLEARING SKIES WITH ANY RAIN ENDING EARLY. SOUTH WINDS TO
USHER IN MILD GULF OF MEXICO AIR WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S...OR
ABOUT 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MILD AND DRY WITH MORE WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS 65-75F SUGGESTED WITH LOWS 45-55 DEGREES WITH
LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS. WITH ENOUGH BL MIXING...UPPER 70S MAXES
SUGGESTED WHICH ARE RECORD HIGHS FOR THIS PERIOD. RECORD MILD MINS
ARE AROUND 50 DEGREES WHICH MAY ALSO BE THREATENED. ..NICHOLS..
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR WX IS EXPECTED THROUGH 12Z/10. SUNSET WILL ALLOW THE ATMOSPHERE
TO STABILIZE AND ALLOW WINDS TO DIMINISH. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE THROUGH IOWA AND ILLINOIS IN THE
03Z-09Z/09 TIME FRAME BUT WILL COME THROUGH DRY BUT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO THE MIDWEST PRIOR TO SUNRISE AND FRIDAY WILL ALLOW WINDS TO
AGAIN DIMINISH.
..08..
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
08/NICHOLS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1235 PM CST THU MAR 8 2012
.UPDATE...
DEEP MIXING IS UNDERWAY WITH HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR MIXING DOWN TO
THE SFC. RUC TRENDS INDICATE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY APPROACH
DRY ADIABATIC THIS AFTERNOON.
THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE HAS A STRONG PV ANOMALY ASSOCIATED WITH
IT WHICH IS AIDING IN MIXING DOWN THE HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR. PER THE
RUC THE PV ANOMALY SHOULD PASS JUST NORTH OF THE CWFA BUT THE
TIGHT PV GRADIENT ON THE SOUTH SIDE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
CWFA PRODUCING THE STRONG WINDS.
BASED ON MOVEMENT FROM WATER VAPOR...THE SHORTWAVE AND PV ANOMALY
SHOULD BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN BY SUNSET. AT THAT TIME LAPSE
RATES WILL BEGIN TO STABILIZE AND WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY.
..08..
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1046 AM CST THU MAR 8 2012/
UPDATE...
DATA THROUGH 15Z HAS HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF
THE CWFA WHICH IS ASSOCIATED WITH TWO SFC WAVES MOVING ALONG THE
COLD FRONT IN ARKANSAS. WATER VAPOR HAS A NICE VORT MAX AND
ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE ROTATING SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN IOWA IN THE
FLOW ALOFT. THERE ARE SOME SC/CU CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS VORT
MAX AND VISIBLE TRENDS THE PAST FEW HOURS SUGGEST A POTENTIAL FOR
THOSE CLOUDS TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN CWFA.
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE STEEPENING FROM THE DIURNAL HEATING
WHICH IS ALLOWING HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR ALOFT TO MIX DOWN. RUC
TRENDS SUGGEST SUSTAINED WINDS SHOULD INCREASE A BIT MORE FROM
LATE MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON BUT NOT BY MUCH. HOWEVER...WIND
GUSTS SHOULD INCREASE A BIT MORE AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA. IF THE RUC TIMING IS CORRECT...SOME GUSTS TO 40 MPH MAY
BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE
CWFA.
.08..
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z/10 AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY
BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST. DAYTIME HEATING IS ALLOWING STRONGER
WINDS ALOFT TO MIX DOWN AND A PASSING DISTURBANCE ALOFT MAY ALLOW
A BRIEF PERIOD OF WIND GUSTS OF 30-35KTS A FEW HOURS EITHER SIDE
OF 21Z/08. THE DAYTIME HEATING MAY ALSO ALLOW SOME DIURNAL CU/SC
TO DEVELOP BUT ANY CIGS WILL BE ABV 3KFT AGL. AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OVER THE AREA LATE TONIGHT WINDS WILL DIMINISH.
.08..
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1046 AM CST THU MAR 8 2012
.UPDATE...
DATA THROUGH 15Z HAS HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF
THE CWFA WHICH IS ASSOCIATED WITH TWO SFC WAVES MOVING ALONG THE
COLD FRONT IN ARKANSAS. WATER VAPOR HAS A NICE VORT MAX AND
ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE ROTATING SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN IOWA IN THE
FLOW ALOFT. THERE ARE SOME SC/CU CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS VORT
MAX AND VISIBLE TRENDS THE PAST FEW HOURS SUGGEST A POTENTIAL FOR
THOSE CLOUDS TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN CWFA.
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE STEEPENING FROM THE DIURNAL HEATING
WHICH IS ALLOWING HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR ALOFT TO MIX DOWN. RUC
TRENDS SUGGEST SUSTAINED WINDS SHOULD INCREASE A BIT MORE FROM
LATE MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON BUT NOT BY MUCH. HOWEVER...WIND
GUSTS SHOULD INCREASE A BIT MORE AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA. IF THE RUC TIMING IS CORRECT...SOME GUSTS TO 40 MPH MAY
BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE
CWFA.
..08..
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z/10 AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY
BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST. DAYTIME HEATING IS ALLOWING STRONGER
WINDS ALOFT TO MIX DOWN AND A PASSING DISTURBANCE ALOFT MAY ALLOW
A BRIEF PERIOD OF WIND GUSTS OF 30-35KTS A FEW HOURS EITHER SIDE
OF 21Z/08. THE DAYTIME HEATING MAY ALSO ALLOW SOME DIURNAL CU/SC
TO DEVELOP BUT ANY CIGS WILL BE ABV 3KFT AGL. AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OVER THE AREA LATE TONIGHT WINDS WILL DIMINISH.
..08..
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1245 PM MST THU MAR 8 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 522 AM MST THU MAR 8 2012
STARTING TO SEE 12Z RAOBS COME IN AND AS EXPECTED AIR MASS BUILDING
IN FROM THE NORTH LOOKS MUCH DRIER THAN PREVIOUS DAY. ESTIMATED
MIXED LAYER DEWPOINTS OFF OF KLBF SOUNDING WOULD SUPPORT SINGLE
DIGIT DEWPOINTS WITH ANY DEEP MIXING. GOES SOUNDINGS ALSO
SUPPORTING VERY DRY LAYER ALOFT...AND THINK WITH PLENTIFUL
SUNSHINE MUCH OF THE AREA WILL TAP INTO THIS DRIER AIR THIS
AFTERNOON. DROPPING TDS INTO SINGLE DIGITS ALONG THE LINES OF
LATEST HRRR STILL KEEP AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES JUST ABOVE
CRITICAL VALUES. WITH STRONGEST WINDS LIKELY BEFORE 20Z...THE
MARGINAL NATURE OF PARAMETERS AND UNCERTAINTY IF WINDS/RH WILL
LINE UP FOR SEVERAL HOURS KEEPS CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO ISSUE A RFW
AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 155 AM MST THU MAR 8 2012
TODAY...AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED ALONG NOSE OF STRONG
ISENTROPIC ASCENT SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH/SHIFT SOUTH OF THE
AREA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS COLD AND DRY AIR ADVECTION
OVERSPREAD THE AREA BEHIND DEPARTING TROUGH MOVING ACROSS EASTERN
NEBRASKA. WITH MUCH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA AND FAIRLY DEEP
DOWNWARD MOTION...DO NOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF A PRECIPITATION THREAT
ONCE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION BEGINS TO SHIFT SOUTH. SKIES WILL
GRADUALLY CLEAR...ALTHOUGH PLACEMENT OF CUT OF LOW AND PERSISTENT
DEFORMATION ZONE MAY PROMOTE A PERSISTENT AREA OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS
ACROSS SOUTHERN CWA...BUT AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON
SENSIBLE WX AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND INTO THE LOWER
50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA DESPITE THE CAA WITH GUSTY NORTHERLY
WINDS EXPECTED BTWN 15 AND 20Z BEFORE THINGS BEGIN TO DIMINISH. WITH
LOW TEENS/SINGLE DIGIT DEWPOINTS MOVING INTO THE AREA...EXPECT
HUMIDITIES TO FALL TO AROUND 20 PERCENT RANGE AND WITH THE GUSTY
WINDS MAY APPROACH CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS FOR AN HOUR OR SO.
CURRENTLY HUMIDITIES LOOK TO BE ABOVE CRITERIA AND WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH WHILE HUMIDITIES ARE AT THEIR LOWEST VALUES.
HAVE SEEN A FEW POST FRONTAL FIRE WEATHER EVENTS THOUGH WITH DEEP
COLD AND DRY AIR ADVECTION AND MAY NEED TO REEVALUATE ONCE 12Z RAOBS
ARE AVAILABLE.
TONIGHT-FRIDAY...GENERAL CONSENSUS IS UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE...WELL REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST AREA...WITH GEM AND SREF
MEAN CONTINUING TO INDICATE SOME RETROGRADE MOTION. BOTH OF THESE
SOLUTIONS AND GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS KEEPS CWA WELL TO THE NORTH OF
ANY APPRECIABLE PRECIPITATION THREAT AS STABLE MID LEVELS...AND
PERSISTENT DRY NORTHERLY FLOW OVERNIGHT THURSDAY WILL BE ENOUGH TO
PREVENT PRECIP DEVELOPMENT...EVEN IF SOME LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR
ASCENT MAY BE PRESENT. MID LEVEL FLOW EXPECTED TO BECOME A BIT MORE
SOUTHERLY DURING THE DAY ALLOWING FOR SOME INCREASING CLOUDS...BUT
WITH BULK OF LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA
AND OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN LARGE SCALE FEATURES...THINK DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 155 AM MST THU MAR 8 2012
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT...WHILE NEAR TERM MODELS HAVE COME INTO A
LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT WITH HOW H5 TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY LIFT TO
THE NORTH ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD...THERE REMAINS
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING DIFFERENCES GREATER
THAN 12 HOURS NOTED IN THE GEFS SPAGHETTI PLOTS FOR THE PERIOD.
GIVEN THE FAIRLY COLD TEMPS ALOFT LEADING TO SOME DESTABILIZATION
AND PV ADVECTION...THINK THERE IS AT LEAST A SMALL THREAT FOR
PRECIPITATION AS IT PASSES. HOWEVER WITH AFOREMENTIONED UNCERTAINTY
WITH RESPECT TO TIMING...CAN NOT REALLY JUSTIFY ANY MORE THAN SLIGHT
PROBABILITIES AT THIS POINT FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY PREFER A SLOWER SOLUTION WHICH WOULD
IMPACT AREA MORE ON SATURDAY NIGHT. -JRM
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH TRACK OF THE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED FOR THIS
PERIOD. CURRENT GUIDANCE HAS THE CLOSED LOW MOVING OVER THE AREA
SUNDAY. PLACED IN SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA
WHERE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND 5-7H FRONTOGENESIS DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
CLOSED LOW AS IT MOVES THROUGH. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH JUST BEHIND
THE CLOSED LOW WILL ALSO LIFT NORTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...BUT WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA. MONDAY A SHORT
WAVE RIDGE MOVES IN BEHIND THE CLOSED LOW. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TURNS TO THE SOUTHWEST...BRINGING DRY AIR
OVER THE AREA WHILE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
CONUS.
TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS AROUND
70 AND LOWS AROUND 40 BY THE START OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 21Z TAFS THROUGH 21Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM MST THU MAR 8 2012
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH SUNSET. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS
ARE SPILLING NORTH FROM A SYSTEM IN THE FOUR CORNERS.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JRM
SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM....JRM/JTL
AVIATION...024
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
532 AM MST THU MAR 8 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 522 AM MST THU MAR 8 2012
STARTING TO SEE 12Z RAOBS COME IN AND AS EXPECTED AIR MASS BUILDING
IN FROM THE NORTH LOOKS MUCH DRIER THAN PREVIOUS DAY. ESTIMATED
MIXED LAYER DEWPOINTS OFF OF KLBF SOUNDING WOULD SUPPORT SINGLE
DIGIT DEWPOINTS WITH ANY DEEP MIXING. GOES SOUNDINGS ALSO
SUPPORTING VERY DRY LAYER ALOFT...AND THINK WITH PLENTIFUL
SUNSHINE MUCH OF THE AREA WILL TAP INTO THIS DRIER AIR THIS
AFTERNOON. DROPPING TDS INTO SINGLE DIGITS ALONG THE LINES OF
LATEST HRRR STILL KEEP AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES JUST ABOVE
CRITICAL VALUES. WITH STRONGEST WINDS LIKELY BEFORE 20Z...THE
MARGINAL NATURE OF PARAMETERS AND UNCERTAINTY IF WINDS/RH WILL
LINE UP FOR SEVERAL HOURS KEEPS CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO ISSUE A RFW
AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 155 AM MST THU MAR 8 2012
TODAY...AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED ALONG NOSE OF STRONG
ISENTROPIC ASCENT SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH/SHIFT SOUTH OF THE
AREA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS COLD AND DRY AIR ADVECTION
OVERSPREAD THE AREA BEHIND DEPARTING TROUGH MOVING ACROSS EASTERN
NEBRASKA. WITH MUCH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA AND FAIRLY DEEP
DOWNWARD MOTION...DO NOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF A PRECIPITATION THREAT
ONCE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION BEGINS TO SHIFT SOUTH. SKIES WILL
GRADUALLY CLEAR...ALTHOUGH PLACEMENT OF CUT OF LOW AND PERSISTENT
DEFORMATION ZONE MAY PROMOTE A PERSISTENT AREA OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS
ACROSS SOUTHERN CWA...BUT AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON
SENSIBLE WX AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND INTO THE LOWER
50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA DESPITE THE CAA WITH GUSTY NORTHERLY
WINDS EXPECTED BTWN 15 AND 20Z BEFORE THINGS BEGIN TO DIMINISH. WITH
LOW TEENS/SINGLE DIGIT DEWPOINTS MOVING INTO THE AREA...EXPECT
HUMIDITIES TO FALL TO AROUND 20 PERCENT RANGE AND WITH THE GUSTY
WINDS MAY APPROACH CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS FOR AN HOUR OR SO.
CURRENTLY HUMIDITIES LOOK TO BE ABOVE CRITERIA AND WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH WHILE HUMIDITIES ARE AT THEIR LOWEST VALUES.
HAVE SEEN A FEW POST FRONTAL FIRE WEATHER EVENTS THOUGH WITH DEEP
COLD AND DRY AIR ADVECTION AND MAY NEED TO REEVALUATE ONCE 12Z RAOBS
ARE AVAILABLE.
TONIGHT-FRIDAY...GENERAL CONSENSUS IS UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE...WELL REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST AREA...WITH GEM AND SREF
MEAN CONTINUING TO INDICATE SOME RETROGRADE MOTION. BOTH OF THESE
SOLUTIONS AND GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS KEEPS CWA WELL TO THE NORTH OF
ANY APPRECIABLE PRECIPITATION THREAT AS STABLE MID LEVELS...AND
PERSISTENT DRY NORTHERLY FLOW OVERNIGHT THURSDAY WILL BE ENOUGH TO
PREVENT PRECIP DEVELOPMENT...EVEN IF SOME LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR
ASCENT MAY BE PRESENT. MID LEVEL FLOW EXPECTED TO BECOME A BIT MORE
SOUTHERLY DURING THE DAY ALLOWING FOR SOME INCREASING CLOUDS...BUT
WITH BULK OF LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA
AND OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN LARGE SCALE FEATURES...THINK DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 155 AM MST THU MAR 8 2012
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT...WHILE NEAR TERM MODELS HAVE COME INTO A
LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT WITH HOW H5 TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY LIFT TO
THE NORTH ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD...THERE REMAINS
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING DIFFERENCES GREATER
THAN 12 HOURS NOTED IN THE GEFS SPAGHETTI PLOTS FOR THE PERIOD.
GIVEN THE FAIRLY COLD TEMPS ALOFT LEADING TO SOME DESTABILIZATION
AND PV ADVECTION...THINK THERE IS AT LEAST A SMALL THREAT FOR
PRECIPITATION AS IT PASSES. HOWEVER WITH AFOREMENTIONED UNCERTAINTY
WITH RESPECT TO TIMING...CAN NOT REALLY JUSTIFY ANY MORE THAN SLIGHT
PROBABILITIES AT THIS POINT FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY PREFER A SLOWER SOLUTION WHICH WOULD
IMPACT AREA MORE ON SATURDAY NIGHT. -JRM
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH TRACK OF THE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED FOR THIS
PERIOD. CURRENT GUIDANCE HAS THE CLOSED LOW MOVING OVER THE AREA
SUNDAY. PLACED IN SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA
WHERE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND 5-7H FRONTOGENESIS DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
CLOSED LOW AS IT MOVES THROUGH. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH JUST BEHIND
THE CLOSED LOW WILL ALSO LIFT NORTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...BUT WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA. MONDAY A SHORT
WAVE RIDGE MOVES IN BEHIND THE CLOSED LOW. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TURNS TO THE SOUTHWEST...BRINGING DRY AIR
OVER THE AREA WHILE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
CONUS.
TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS AROUND
70 AND LOWS AROUND 40 BY THE START OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 410 AM MST THU MAR 8 2012
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR ENTIRE PERIOD AS DRY SFC HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OVER THE AREA. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20
KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS BTWN 15 AND 17Z AND WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JRM
SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM....JRM/JTL
AVIATION...JRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
1210 AM CST THU MAR 8 2012
.AVIATION...06Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT ALL
TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LOW LEVEL DRY AIR WILL ARRIVE
FROM THE NORTH AND END PRECIPITATION BEFORE DAYBREAK IN CENTRAL
KS...AND AROUND DAYBREAK AT KICT/KHUT. PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY
LINGER INTO THE MORNING AT KCNU. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
CEILINGS/VISIBILITY ARE EXPECTED IN/NEAR PRECIPITATION. GUSTY
NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY GIVEN 45KTS AT 850MB AND
15-25KT IN BOUNDARY LAYER. -HOWERTON
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 536 PM CST WED MAR 7 2012/
UPDATE...
ADJUSTED THE SHORT TERM GRIDS TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT OBSERVATIONS/
TRENDS. APPEARS THAT HRRR HAS BEST HANDLE ON FRONT/TIMING/TEMPERATURES
IN THE VERY SHORT TERM...WITH A BLEND INTO THE NAM LATER TONIGHT.
WILL LIKELY BE MAKING SOME TWEAKS TO POPS IN A BIT.
AVIATION...00Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS ARE POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING
AND MVFR CEILINGS AT KCNU LATER TONIGHT. THERE APPEARS TO BE A
NARROW WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR ELEVATED STORMS TO DEVELOP THIS
EVENING AT KICT/KCNU AND POSSIBLY AS FAR NORTH AS KHUT. NAM/RUC
MODEL FORECAST HAS 500+ J/G MUCAPE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST
KS ROUGHLY BETWEEN 03-08 UTC. CEILINGS WILL DECREASE IN THE RAIN AT
KCNU WITH MVFR CEILINGS LOOKING LIKELY OVERNIGHT. SOME IMPROVEMENT
IS ANTICIPATED ALL SITES DURING THE DAY. -HOWERTON
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM CST WED MAR 7 2012/
DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS EVENING AND
LATER THIS WEEK.
SYNOPSIS:
A POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT IS MAKING ITS WAY
ACROSS KANSAS. AS OF 3PM THE FRONT IS APPROACHING WICHITA WHICH IS A
LITTLE AHEAD OF WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. TEMPERATURES HAVE
SURGED AHEAD OF THE FRONT AIDED BY THE GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS.
TONIGHT - SATURDAY:
THE UPPER TROUGH THAT ENTERED THE GREAT BASIN YESTERDAY HAS
SPLIT...WITH THE CUT OFF PORTION LOCATED OVER NORTHERN
ARIZONA/SOUTHERN UTAH...AND MOVING SLOWLY THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS
AREA. LEE CYCLOGENESIS HAS A SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY OVER NEW MEXICO
WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH KANSAS TO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS TODAY HAVE ADVECTED MID TO
UPPER 50 DEWPOINTS TO THE SOUTHEASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA.
AS THIS COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA THIS
EVENING...SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY MAINLY
ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. THE LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THAT
PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP BEYOND 00Z THIS EVENING MAINLY OVER
SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS. SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND SHEAR MAY
SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER STORMS AND HAIL WITH THOSE CELLS...ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA. NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION
APPEARS TO BE GREATER WITH THE NAM THAN THE OTHER MODELS...THINK THE
PRECIPITATION WILL RESIDE MAINLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN
KANSAS BUT THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER CENTRAL KANSAS.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW STALLS OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE FOR THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY...AND WILL PUSH ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE NORTH
THROUGHOUT THE DAY SATURDAY. ONCE AGAIN THE SOUTHEASTERN TWO-THIRDS
ARE MORE FAVORED FOR THE PRECIPITATION SATURDAY...BUT THIS WILL HAVE
TO BE MONITORED. PRECIP TYPE SHOULD STAY MOSTLY LIQUID FORM...BUT
SLIGHT CHANCE THAT SOME COULD BE FREEZING DRIZZLE ON THE NORTHERN
FRINGES.
LAUGEMAN
SUNDAY - WEDNESDAY:
THE CUT OFF UPPER LOW WILL BE KICKED EASTWARD BY THE NEXT UPPER
LEVEL WAVE MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST. PRECIPITATION WILL BE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS OVER THE AREA...BUT
CHANCES DO NOT LOOK TO BE HIGH. THE SYSTEM WILL EXIT BY SUNDAY
NIGHT AND WHILE ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT OVER US...IT LOOKS TO
BE FAR ENOUGH EAST TO KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT BAY. WARM AIR
ADVECTION THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK WILL HELP TEMPERATURES
REACH WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
BILLINGS
FIRE WEATHER...
THE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER INDEX REMAINS VERY HIGH THROUGH THE REST
OF THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...BUT AS THE WINDS DECREASE THIS EVENING CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WINDS WILL AGAIN BE GUSTY DURING THE
DAY THURSDAY AND VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS. OTHERWISE WITH THE CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION AND LIGHTER WINDS DURING THE WEEKEND THE FIRE DANGER
INDEX WILL MAX OUT IN THE HIGH CATEGORY.
BILLINGS
AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN IS THE STRONG WINDS...COLD FRONT TIMING
AND MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.
THE COLD FRONT AS OF 18Z HAS JUST REACHED KSLN AND IT WILL
CONTINUE A SLOW SOUTHWARD TREK THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. EXPECT IT
TO REACH KICT AFTER 00Z. AHEAD OF THE FRONT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE
VERY STRONG WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS BETWEEN 25-30 KTS AND GUSTS
UPWARDS TO 35-40 KTS. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH
WINDS WILL DECREASE AND BECOME NORTHERLY. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY...BUT NOT AS STRONG AS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. CEILINGS ARE
BOUNCING AROUND THE MVFR/VFR THRESHOLD IN THE 2500-3500 FT RANGE
AHEAD AND BEHIND THE FRONT. HAVE REMAINED SOMEWHAT PESSIMISTIC
WITH THE TAF FORECAST IN MVFR.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO SOUTHERN
KANSAS BETWEEN 02-06Z WHERE MOISTURE IS MORE PLENTIFUL. HAVE -SHRA
AT KICT AND KCNU WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST...WITH VCSH POSSIBLE
AT ALL OTHER TERMINALS EXCEPT KRSL. COLDER AIR IS EXPECTED TO PUSH
INTO CENTRAL KANSAS...BUT HAVE KEPT FREEZING PRECIPITATION OUT OF
THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME AS THAT IS FURTHER OUT IN THE FORECAST
AND CONFIDENCE ON THAT FEATURE IS LOW.
BILLINGS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 34 53 39 50 / 20 10 30 50
HUTCHINSON 32 53 39 50 / 20 10 30 40
NEWTON 33 53 39 49 / 10 10 30 50
ELDORADO 33 53 39 50 / 10 10 20 50
WINFIELD-KWLD 35 52 40 50 / 20 10 30 50
RUSSELL 29 54 39 51 / 10 10 20 20
GREAT BEND 29 53 39 50 / 20 10 30 30
SALINA 30 55 38 51 / 10 10 20 40
MCPHERSON 31 54 39 50 / 10 10 20 40
COFFEYVILLE 37 54 40 51 / 20 10 20 50
CHANUTE 34 55 38 51 / 10 10 20 50
IOLA 33 54 37 50 / 10 10 20 50
PARSONS-KPPF 35 54 39 51 / 20 10 20 50
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1030 PM MST WED MAR 7 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1024 PM MST WED MAR 7 2012
CONVECTION HAS BROKEN OUT OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO JUST SOUTHEAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA WITHIN AXIS OF 700MB THETA-E AND RIGHT REAR
QUAD OF UPPER JET. RUC SUGGESTING THAT MAIN ACTIVITY MAY CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP NORTHWARD POSSIBLY INTO SOUTHEAST GOVE AND WICHITA
COUNTIES FROM 06Z-08Z OR SO. RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SNOW AS THE
MAIN PRECIP TYPE. HAVE UPDATED FORECAST TO REFLECT THE CHANCE OF
SNOW.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 752 PM MST WED MAR 7 2012
TONIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT...18Z GFS/NAM/ECWMF AND MOST RECENT 00Z
NAM/RUC ALL SHOWING A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK TO THE 500 LOW
CURRENTLY OVER EAST CENTRAL ARIZONA. 850-500 MOISTURE RATHER
LACKING TONIGHT EXCEPT ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR FLAGLER IN
EASTERN COLORADO BUT THAT WILL BE BRIEF AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE
SOUTH AND OUT OF THE AREA. WILL NEED TO WATCH THE FAR
EAST/SOUTHEAST/SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AS RUC ONLY MODEL TO GENERATE
SOME LIGHT PRECIP AROUND 09Z DESPITE THE BETTER MOISTURE BEING
FURTHER SOUTH.
WITH THE MORE SOUTHERN TRACK MORE OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE
PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE. WINDS WILL AGAIN BE FROM THE NORTH AT 15 TO 25
MPH. LATEST NAM/SREF 2M TEMPS AND MAV/MET MOS GUIDANCE ALL IN
AGREEMENT THAT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK GENERALLY IN THE
40S WITH A FEW 50S NEAR NORTON AND HILL CITY.
THURSDAY NIGHT...STILL LOOKS DRY. 00Z NAM TRIES TO INCREASE THE
LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS GREELEY AND WICHITA COUNTIES AS
THE UPPER LOW STARTS TO ROTATE INTO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO/TEXAS
PANHANDLE. NOT MANY CHANGES MADE TO GRIDS DURING THIS PERIOD AT
PRESENT TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 212 PM MST WED MAR 7 2012
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE POSSIBILITY OF PRECIPITATION AND
PRECIPITATION TYPE. IN THE PAST 24 HRS...THERE HAS BEEN MUCH
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING PRECIP OVER THE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH WEST OF THE REGION...BUT THE GENERAL TREND HAS MADE
PRECIP LESS AND LESS LIKELY. BASED ON THIS TREND AND THE LATEST
GUIDANCE...HAVE LOWERED PROBABILITIES FURTHER...AND KEPT THE
HIGHEST CHANCES NEAREST TO THE TROUGH IN THE SOUTHWESTERN PART OF
THE AREA. NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THERE IS STILL
POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IN THE EARLY MORNING IF
ANY PRECIP WERE TO FALL...BUT SNOW SHOULD QUICKLY BECOME THE
PREDOMINANT PRECIP TYPE AS THE WESTERLY COMPONENT OF WINDS ALOFT
MODIFIES THE AIR MASS.
AS THE LOW MOVES FURTHER SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAYTIME ON
THURSDAY...THE CHANCE FOR PRECIP SHOULD MINIMIZE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. SKIES WILL CLEAR IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
AREA...ALLOWING WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTH COMPARED TO
FURTHER SOUTH. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE
DAYTIME DUE TO THE MOVEMENT AND POSITION OF THE TROUGH.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 212 PM MST WED MAR 7 2012
THERE ARE STILL SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THE UPPER LOW DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME. BOTH THE NAM/GFS BRING THE UPPER LOW INTO THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY. THE GFS HOLDS THE LOW IN THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE FRIDAY NIGHT WHILE THE NAM HAS IT POSITIONED A LITTLE
FURTHER NORTH IN THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. BOTH HAVE THE GFS/NAM HAVE
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE SATURDAY MORNING. THE GFS
TAKES THE LOW INTO CENTRAL KANSAS SATURDAY NIGHT. OTHER THAN
THURSDAY EVENING, LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY BOTH MODELS KEEP
THE DYNAMICS/MOISTURE OUTSIDE OF THE FA. FOR THE PERIODS JUST
MENTIONED THERE IS SOME VERY MARGINAL MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST
FRINGE OF THE FA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS NEAR THE BEST PLAN VIEW
MOISTURE FIELD LOOK VERY DRY SO AM NOT OPTIMISTIC ABOUT ANY
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. FOR THIS REASON HAVE INCLUDED ONLY
SPRINKLES/FLURRIES THURSDAY EVENING AND LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. SOME
LIGHT RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE FAR EAST SATURDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE THE REMAINING PERIODS ARE DRY WITH NIL POPS.
MIN TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE FROM THE LOWER 20S THURSDAY NIGHT TO
THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S FRIDAY/SATURDAY NIGHTS. MAX TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY REACH THE MID 50S FRIDAY/SATURDAY.
FOR SUNDAY - WEDNESDAY...THE GFS SHOWS A RIDGE OVER THE FA SUNDAY
FOLLOWED BY WEST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE/FORCING WILL KEEP POPS NIL
THROUGH THIS PART OF THE FORECAST. 850MB TEMPERATURES INDICATE
THAT MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOUT 10 TO ALMOST 20 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70. MIN TEMPERATURES IN THE
30S/LOW 40S WILL BE ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1024 PM MST WED MAR 7 2012
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK. RAPID CLEARING
EXPECTED FROM NORTH TO SOUTH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WITH ONLY A
FEW CIRRUS CLOUDS EXPECTED SHORTLY THEREAFTER. N WINDS OF 10 KTS
OR SO TO CONTINUE THROUGH 15Z THURSDAY THEN INCREASING INTO THE
15G25KT RANGE FROM 15Z-00Z AS HEATING/MIXING OCCUR. VRB06KTS
EXPECTED BY 01Z THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...007
SHORT TERM...CJS
LONG TERM....FS
AVIATION...007
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
938 PM EST FRI MAR 9 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL END ANY REMAINING LIGHT FLURRIES EARLY
TONIGHT, AND DECREASE WINDS AND CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, COLD
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE, COMING NORTHEAST
FROM KANSAS, WILL START A WARM UP SUNDAY, AND PROVIDE SHOWERS LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
03Z ENHANCED SHORT TERM FORECAST UPDATE HAS BEEN ISSUED TO
CONTINUE FLURRIES MENTION ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR THROUGH 06Z. THE
REST OF THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION REMAINS THE SAME.
THE LATEST RUC MID-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A 500MB TROUGH AXIS
CENTERED ACROSS UPSTATE NY WITH THE UPPER OHIO IN A NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW. COLD WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AT 850MB HAS ALLOWED FOR A FEW
LINGERING FLURRIES ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE, LOW-LEVEL DRYING IS ALLOWING FOR CLOUD
COVERAGE TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE AREA.
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...A SURFACE HIGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
POOL ALOFT WILL CROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND DEEP LAYER OF DRY AIR WILL ALLOW FOR
CLEARING ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES DIMINISHING ACROSS THE NORTH BY MIDNIGHT. A FEW DIURNAL
CUMULUS MAY DEVELOP SATURDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WITH WINDS
DYING DOWN AND CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT, THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPS ARE A LAMP/HRRR BLEND,
AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. COOLER AIR MASS ALOFT WITH 850MB
TEMPS 0C TO -4C TOMORROW WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO WARM TO A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGHS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RECENT SREF MODEL OUTPUT SHOWS THAT ONCE THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
PASSES EAST OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS, LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL
BECOME SOUTHERLY AND START A WARM UP ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
DAYTIME SUNDAY.
LOW PRESSURE, DEVELOPING NEAR KANSAS SUNDAY, WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD
TOWARD WISCONSIN MONDAY. PER RECENT SREF MODEL OUTPUT, SUPPORTED
BY GFS MOS, EXPECT SHOWERS TO SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY DAYTIME MONDAY.
FORECASTED TEMPERATURE DETAILS USING A BLEND OF CLOSELY CONCURRING
GFS AND NAM MOS, WHICH SHOWED NEAR NORMAL LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT,
FOLLOWED BY A WARM UP TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW A WEAKENING SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE
LOW TRACKING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL REBUILD BY MIDWEEK...FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE RIDGE SLIDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
SHOULD PROVIDE DRY WEATHER FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE DISTRICT SATURDAY MORNING WILL
BRING AN END TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTH AND
PROVIDE CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH DIMINISHING WINDS. AREAS
OF BROKEN VFR TO MVFR STRATOCUMULUS CEILINGS WILL PERSIST MAINLY
AT KFKL AND KDUJ INTO THE EARLY MORNING.
OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD PROVIDE GENERALLY VFR WEATHER FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY NIGHT AND DRAG
A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH A
RETURN TO GENERALLY VFR WEDNESDAY.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
656 PM EST FRI MAR 9 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL END ANY REMAINING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES EARLY TONIGHT, AND DECREASE WINDS AND CLOUDS OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER, COLD TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE,
COMING NORTHEAST FROM KANSAS, WILL START A WARM UP SUNDAY, AND
PROVIDE SHOWERS LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
00Z ENHANCED SHORT TERM FORECAST UPDATE HAS BEEN ISSUED TO MAKE
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO DECREASE SKY GRIDS.
THE LATEST RUC MID-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A 500MB TROUGH AXIS
CENTERED ACROSS UPSTATE NY WITH THE UPPER OHIO IN A NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW. COLD WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AT 850MB HAS ALLOWED FOR A FEW
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-80
CORRIDOR THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE, LOW-LEVEL DRYING IS ALLOWING FOR
CLOUD COVERAGE TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE AREA.
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...A SURFACE HIGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
POOL ALOFT WILL CROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND DEEP LAYER OF DRY AIR WILL ALLOW FOR
CLEARING ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES DIMINISHING ACROSS THE NORTH BY MIDNIGHT. A FEW DIURNAL
CUMULUS MAY DEVELOP SATURDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WITH WINDS
DYING DOWN AND CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT, THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPS ARE A LAMP/HRRR BLEND,
AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. COOLER AIR MASS ALOFT WITH 850MB
TEMPS 0C TO -4C TOMORROW WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO WARM TO A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGHS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RECENT SREF MODEL OUTPUT SHOWS THAT ONCE THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
PASSES EAST OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS, LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL
BECOME SOUTHERLY AND START A WARM UP ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
DAYTIME SUNDAY.
LOW PRESSURE, DEVELOPING NEAR KANSAS SUNDAY, WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD
TOWARD WISCONSIN MONDAY. PER RECENT SREF MODEL OUTPUT, SUPPORTED
BY GFS MOS, EXPECT SHOWERS TO SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY DAYTIME MONDAY.
FORECASTED TEMPERATURE DETAILS USING A BLEND OF CLOSELY CONCURRING
GFS AND NAM MOS, WHICH SHOWED NEAR NORMAL LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT,
FOLLOWED BY A WARM UP TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW A WEAKENING SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE
LOW TRACKING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL REBUILD BY MIDWEEK...FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE RIDGE SLIDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
SHOULD PROVIDE DRY WEATHER FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE DISTRICT SATURDAY MORNING WILL
BRING AN END TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTH AND
PROVIDE CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH DIMINISHING WINDS. AREAS
OF BROKEN VFR TO MVFR STRATOCUMULUS CEILINGS WILL PERSIST MAINLY
AT KFKL AND KDUJ INTO THE EARLY MORNING.
OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD PROVIDE GENERALLY VFR WEATHER FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY NIGHT AND DRAG
A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH A
RETURN TO GENERALLY VFR WEDNESDAY.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
639 PM EST FRI MAR 9 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE, COMING EAST FROM WISCONSIN, WILL END ANY REMAINING
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES EARLY TONIGHT, AND DECREASE WINDS
AND CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, COLD TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE, COMING NORTHEAST FROM KANSAS, WILL START A
WARM UP SUNDAY, AND PROVIDE SHOWERS LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
00Z ENHANCED SHORT TERM FORECAST UPDATE HAS BEEN ISSUED TO MAKE
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO DECREASE SKY GRIDS.
THE LATEST RUC MID-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A 500MB TROUGH AXIS
CENTERED ACROSS UPSTATE NY WITH THE UPPER OHIO IN A NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW. COLD WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AT 850MB HAS ALLOWED FOR A FEW
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-80
CORRIDOR THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE, LOW-LEVEL DRYING IS ALLOWING FOR
CLOUD COVERAGE TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE AREA.
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...A SURFACE HIGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
POOL ALOFT WILL CROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND DEEP LAYER OF DRY AIR WILL ALLOW FOR
CLEARING ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES DIMINISHING ACROSS THE NORTH BY MIDNIGHT. A FEW DIURNAL
CUMULUS MAY DEVELOP SATURDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WITH WINDS
DYING DOWN AND CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT, THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPS ARE A LAMP/HRRR BLEND,
AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. COOLER AIR MASS ALOFT WITH 850MB
TEMPS 0C TO -4C TOMORROW WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO WARM TO A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGHS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RECENT SREF MODEL OUTPUT SHOWS THAT ONCE THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
PASSES EAST OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS, LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL
BECOME SOUTHERLY AND START A WARM UP ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
DAYTIME SUNDAY.
LOW PRESSURE, DEVELOPING NEAR KANSAS SUNDAY, WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD
TOWARD WISCONSIN MONDAY. PER RECENT SREF MODEL OUTPUT, SUPPORTED
BY GFS MOS, EXPECT SHOWERS TO SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY DAYTIME MONDAY.
FORECASTED TEMPERATURE DETAILS USING A BLEND OF CLOSELY CONCURRING
GFS AND NAM MOS, WHICH SHOWED NEAR NORMAL LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT,
FOLLOWED BY A WARM UP TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW A WEAKENING SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE
LOW TRACKING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL REBUILD BY MIDWEEK...FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE RIDGE SLIDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
SHOULD PROVIDE DRY WEATHER FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SECONDARY COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON, EXPECT
STRATOCUMULUS CEILINGS TO LOWER INTO THE MVFR RANGE AT TIMES FROM
KPIT NORTH. VISIBILITIES IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS CAN GO BRIEFLY
IFR THROUGH 22Z.
NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS CAN GUST TO 30 KT INTO EARLY EVENING.
EXPECT WIND SPEEDS TO LOWER TO AROUND 10 KTS AFTER 02Z. AREAS OF
MVFR STRATOCUMULUS CEILINGS WILL PERSIST MAINLY FROM KPIT NORTH
OVERNIGHT...WITH CLOUDS BECOMING SCATTERED AFTER 14Z SATURDAY.
OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD PROVIDE GENERALLY VFR WEATHER FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY NIGHT AND DRAG
A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH A
RETURN TO GENERALLY VFR WEDNESDAY.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1233 PM EST THU MAR 8 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 537 AM EST THU MAR 8 2012
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
FROM NW ONTARIO THROUGH WRN MN INTO ERN NEBRASKA. A BAND OF LIGHT
SNOW MOVING QUICKLY THROUGH THE ERN CWA WAS SUPPORTED BY 700-600 MB
FGEN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT EXITED UPPER MI TO THE SE.
OTHERWISE...JUST A FEW FLURRIES REMAINED OVER CNTRL UPPER MI. AN
UPSTREAM SHRTWV WAS MOVING FROM SE SASK TOWARD SRN MANITOBA. AT THE
SFC..NW WINDS PREVAILED BTWN A TROUGH FROM QUEBEC TO LAKE HURON AND
A RIDGFROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO NW ONTARIO. THE CLIPPER LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER SHRTWVWAS LOCATED OVER N CNTRL MANTIOBA
WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT TO THE SW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 537 AM EST THU MAR 8 2012
TODAY...EXPECT THE MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE AREA BY
AFTERNOON TO BE REINFORCED BY THE SASK SHRTWV BY LATE TODAY. THE
COMBINATION OF INCREASING 700-500 MB QVECTOR CONV...DEEPER
MOISTURE...DAYTIME HEATING AND STEEP 900-700 MB LAPSE RATES NEAR 8
C/KM WILL SUPPORT SCT SHSN DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY LATE.
TONIGHT...SHSN WILL TRANSITION TO LES AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES
(850 MB TEMPS ARE FCST TO DROP INTO THE -14C TO -18C RANGE) AND WINDS
VEER TO THE NW. AS THE WINDS VEER THE STRONGER LOW LEVEL CONV WILL
SHIFT FROM WRN UPPER MI INTO THE NE CWA E OF MARQUETTE. WITH
FAVORABLE 850-700 MB MOISTURE AND INVERSION HEIGHTS TO NEAR 10K
FT...SOME STRONGER SNOWBANDS MAY DEVELOP WITH BRIEF HEAVY SNOW.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE SHIFTING LOCATION OF THE BANDS...OVERALL
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD STILL REMAIN IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE. WITH THE
LONGER FETCH INTO THE EAST...SOME ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS TO AROUND 4
INCHES MAY BE POSSIBLE NEAR OR JUST INLAND FROM GRAND MARAIS. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS INTO THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR WILL
ALSO CAUSE AREA OF BLSN.
FRIDAY...LES WILL DIMINISH FROM THE WEST AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE
REGION ALONG WITH ACYC FLOW AND LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS AND (AOB
4K FT). HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE MAY BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE EAST AS THE 850 MB THERMAL TROUGH (850 MB TEMPS
AROUND -18C) LINGERS INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 537 AM EST THU MAR 8 2012
...RAIN FOLLOWED BY SIGNIFICANT WARM-UP EARLY-MID NEXT WEEK MAY
RESULT IN HYDRO ISSUES...
NOTE: SEE LATER PORTION OF THIS LONG TERM DISCUSSION FOR THOUGHTS ON
POSSIBLE HYDROLOGY ISSUES.
POP/WX WISE IT IS PRETTY QUIET FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
WARM AIR ADVECTIONS RAMPING UP AGAIN COULD LEAD TO BATCH OF LGT SNOW
OVR LK SUPERIOR AND PERHAPS THE FAR NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE CWA.
OTHERWISE JUST A PERIOD OF MID CLOUDS. MAIN STORY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY WILL BE GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS.
TREND THAT BEGAN TO APPEAR IN MODELS YESTERDAY CONTINUES TODAY. AS
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES EAST FRIDAY NIGHT SFC TROUGH OVR CNTRL
CANADA WILL STEAMROLL EAST BY SUNRISE SATURDAY. TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT ENSUES AND VERY STRONG PRESSURE FALLS /OVR 12MB IN 6 HR/
ARE FCST NORTH OF LK SUPERIOR. PATTERN SUGGESTS THAT DESPITE WARM
AIR ADVECTION REGIME...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS COULD BECOME QUITE
GUSTY. FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A LOT OF WIND JUST ABOVE SFC /50+ KTS
AT 925MB PER GFS/ECMWF/NAM/ BUT IT IS STABLE. BLYR WINDS USUALLY DO
A GOOD JOB HIGHLIGHTING HOW STRONG WINDS COULD GET AND THIS OUTPUT
POINTS TO SOLID 35-40 KTS. GALES OVR LK SUPERIOR AND PROBABLY
NEARSHORE ZONES OF LK MICHIGAN GOOD BET. ALSO...GOING TO MENTION
SOME NEAR ADVY GUSTS IN HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH SHORE OF
LK SUPERIOR. BASED ON SFC WIND DIRECTION AND WHERE CORE OF STRONGEST
WINDS IS FCST...THE SHORELINE FM BARAGA TO MARQUETTE ALONG LK
SUPERIOR WOULD SEE STRONGEST WINDS. ALSO COULD SEE STRONGER WINDS
OVR KEWEENAW COUNTY AS THAT AREA IS EXPOSED TO SOUTHERLY
FLOW...ESPECIALLY HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. PRESSURE FALL MOVES STEADILY
TO THE EAST THROUGH THE DAY...BUT SOUNDINGS POINT TO BREEZY
CONDITIONS CONTINUING FOR MUCH OF SATURDAY AS MIXING WILL BE HIGHER
DUE TO MAINLY SUNNY SKIES. AS SOUTH WINDS KICK UP LATER FRIDAY NIGHT
TEMPS SHOULD BEGIN TO RISE OVR MUCH OF CWA. USED NON-DIURNAL TEMP
CURVE INTO SATURDAY WITH LOWS FRIDAY EVENING IN THE TEENS AND TEMPS
RISING TOWARD FREEZING BY SUNRISE SATURDAY. MIXING TO H9 ON SATURDAY
SEEMS PRETTY GOOD CONSIDERING AMOUNT OF INSOLATION EXPECTED. MIXING
THIS HIGH GAVE READINGS INTO THE 50S OVR MOST OF THE WEST HALF OF
CWA. SW WINDS WILL KEEP LK MICHIGAN AND INLAND AREAS OF EAST CWA
COOLER IN THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S.
IN THE EXTENDED...COULD BE AN ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD OVR MUCH OF UPR
LAKES...BUT NOT NECESSARILY FM AMOUNT OF STORM SYSTEMS. RATHER...ONE
SYSTEM LOOKS TO BRING LGT MAYBE MODERATE RAIN AMOUNTS TO AREA LATER
SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT THEN A VERY SIGNIFICANT WARM-UP IS IN
STILL LOOKS TO BE IN THE OFFING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. IF ALL
GOES AS PLANNED...MOST AREAS IN THE CWA BY THIS TIME NEXT WEEK WILL
HAVE LOST A MAJORITY IF NOT ALL OF THE SNOWPACK. WILL BE SOMETHING
TO MONITOR INTO NEXT WEEK AS THERE COULD BE SOME HYDRO ISSUES GIVEN
POTENTIAL TO MELT THE SNOW RATHER QUICKLY. LOW PRESSURE STILL FCST
TO LIFT FM THE PLAINS/MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO THE UPR LAKES
LATE SUNDAY. IN A GENERAL SENSE...THREE MAIN MODELS USED FOR THE
EXTENDED /GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN/ ALL SHOW THIS SYSTEM IMPACTING UPR MI.
TIMING IS NOT SET THOUGH...AS LATEST ECMWF NOW BRINGS THE LOW MORE
ACROSS LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS TIMING IS CLOSER TO
CANADIAN BUT STRAYS SIGNIFICANTLY FM NCEP MODELS /GFS AND NAM/. NCEP
PREFERRED SLOWER APPROACH AS THERE COULD BE SOME BLOCKING AHEAD OF
THE FEATURE. TRENDED THIS WAY IN GRIDS. HIGHEST CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT
STILL LOOKED FINE. MAIN CHANGE TO CONSENSUS ALLBLEND APPROACH WAS TO
KEEP CHANCE POPS IN FOR ALL DAY MONDAY.
ONCE THE SYSTEM CLEARS THE AREA LATER MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...ATTN IS
ON POTENTIAL WARM-UP. SEEMS LIKE MORE OFTEN THAN NOT IN RECENT YEARS
WE HAVE LOST THE SNOWPACK IN THE SPRING WITH MORE OF A GRADUAL WARM
UP IN A STEADY FREEZE-THAW CYCLE /RISING ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE
DAYS BUT FALLING BLO AT NIGHT/. WE SEE HOW WHEN THIS DOES NOT WORK
WHAT CAN HAPPEN AS YESTERDAY AT THE OFFICE IN NEGAUNEE TWP WITH
HIGHS AROUND 50 DEGREES AND DWPNTS WELL INTO THE 40S...WE LOST 8
INCHES OF OUR SNOWPACK IN ONE DAY! AFTER OUR BREAK IN THE SNOWMELT
THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...SEEMS LIKE WE COULD BE HEADING FOR SIMILAR
QUICK SNOWMELT LATE THIS WEEKEND THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK. MAIN CONCERN
WOULD BE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS ECMWF /WHICH FOR MOST PART USUALLY
LEADS WAY ON THESE TYPE OF WARM-UPS WELL OVER CLIMATOLOGY/ INDICATES
MAX TEMPS PUSHING OVER 60 DEGREES OVR AT LEAST THE WEST HALF OF THE
CWA. ALLBLEND GUIDANCE /BIASED TOWARD THE GFS/ WAS MUCH COOLER AND
WAS ADJUSTED UPWARD FOR BOTH DAYS. ECMWF ALSO INDICATES DWPNTS
RISING ABOVE 40...ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF WEAK TROUGH FCST
TO COME THROUGH ON THURSDAY.
A COUPLE OF CAUTIONS THOUGH. LATEST ECMWF NOW TRYING TO SHOW MORE
OF A TYPICAL SPRING LIKE MSLP PATTERN ON TUESDAY WITH POSSIBLE LAKE
BREEZES AS MAIN TROUGH REMAINS OVR PLAINS. TRIMMED TEMPS SLIGHTLY
TOWARD LK SUPERIOR SHORE FOR TUESDAY...WITH BETTER SHOT OF THE
REALLY WARM TEMPS STAYING INLAND TOWARD WI BORDER. TROUGH IS CLOSE
ENOUGH ON WEDNESDAY TO RESULT IN MAINLY SW FLOW FOR ALL AREAS AND
ALLOWING THE WARM TEMPS RIGHT TO PUSH TO THE LK SUPERIOR SHORE AS
WELL ALONG WITH DWPNTS RISING WELL ABOVE 40F. OBVIOUSLY GIVEN THIS
KIND OF MOISTURE ADVECTION AND THE MELING SNOWPACK ONGOING...SOME
STRATUS/FOG IS NOT OUT OF QUESTION WHICH WOULD IMPACT TEMPS. STILL
QUESTIONS IN SPECIFICS BUT THIS TIME FRAME COULD POSE SOME ISSUES
WITH REGARD TO RISES ON RIVES/STREAMS AND SOME AREAL FLOODING
CONCERNS IN LOW-LYING SPOTS AS WELL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM EST THU MAR 8 2012
AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE/STEEP LAPSE RATES/DAYTIME HEATING WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO SCT/NMRS -SHSN LATER THIS AFTN INTO THE EVENING HRS.
MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY PREVAIL...THOUGH SOME BRIEF PERIODS
OF IFR MAY OCCUR DEPENDING ON INTENSITY OF -SHSN. SHSN WILL
TRANSITION TO LES AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN TONIGHT BUT SHOULD MAINLY
AFFECT KCMX. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE LATE THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT WITH BLSN ALSO DEVELOPING AT KCMX.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 537 AM EST THU MAR 8 2012
A COUPLE OF PERIODS OF GALES ON THE LAKE INTO THIS WEEKEND. FIRST
GALE EVENT IS TONIGHT WITH COLD AND UNSTABLE PROFILE OVER THE LAKE.
SHOULD SEE FREQUENT GUSTS 35-40 KTS AND HAVE ISSUED GALE WARNING FOR
ALL OF LK SUPERIOR INTO EARLY FRIDAY. HAVE ALSO POSTED HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY WARNING FOR TONIGHT. NOT OUT OF QUESTION THAT THIS MAY BE LAST
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY EPISODE OF WINTER.
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST GALES THEN LOOK LIKELY LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER LK SUPERIOR. WARM AIR
ADVECTION REGIME KEEPS HIGHER STABILITY IN LOW-LEVELS...BUT THINK
THIS WILL BE OFFSET BY VERY STRONG PRESSURE FALLS SLIDING JUST NORTH
OF LK SUPERIOR. SETUP USUALLY RESULTS IN STRONGEST WINDS OVER
EASTERN HALF OF LK SUPERIOR. WINDS SETTLE DOWN CONSIDERABLY BY LATER
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WIND DIRECTION LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDANT ON TRACK OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
FM CENTRAL PLAINS. EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN LESS THAN 30 KTS AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 11 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LSZ267.
GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 11 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LSZ266.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS
EVENING TO 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ FRIDAY FOR LSZ162-240>245-
248-263>265.
GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM EST /9 PM CST/ THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST
/5 AM CST/ FRIDAY FOR LSZ162-263.
GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LSZ264-
265.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JLB
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
559 AM EST THU MAR 8 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 537 AM EST THU MAR 8 2012
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
FROM NW ONTARIO THROUGH WRN MN INTO ERN NEBRASKA. A BAND OF LIGHT
SNOW MOVING QUICKLY THROUGH THE ERN CWA WAS SUPPORTED BY 700-600 MB
FGEN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT EXITED UPPER MI TO THE SE.
OTHERWISE...JUST A FEW FLURRIES REMAINED OVER CNTRL UPPER MI. AN
UPSTREAM SHRTWV WAS MOVING FROM SE SASK TOWARD SRN MANITOBA. AT THE
SFC..NW WINDS PREVAILED BTWN A TROUGH FROM QUEBEC TO LAKE HURON AND
A RIDGFROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO NW ONTARIO. THE CLIPPER LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER SHRTWVWAS LOCATED OVER N CNTRL MANTIOBA
WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT TO THE SW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 537 AM EST THU MAR 8 2012
TODAY...EXPECT THE MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE AREA BY
AFTERNOON TO BE REINFORCED BY THE SASK SHRTWV BY LATE TODAY. THE
COMBINATION OF INCREASING 700-500 MB QVECTOR CONV...DEEPER
MOISTURE...DAYTIME HEATING AND STEEP 900-700 MB LAPSE RATES NEAR 8
C/KM WILL SUPPORT SCT SHSN DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY LATE.
TONIGHT...SHSN WILL TRANSITION TO LES AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES
(850 MB TEMPS ARE FCST TO DROP INTO THE -14C TO -18C RANGE) AND WINDS
VEER TO THE NW. AS THE WINDS VEER THE STRONGER LOW LEVEL CONV WILL
SHIFT FROM WRN UPPER MI INTO THE NE CWA E OF MARQUETTE. WITH
FAVORABLE 850-700 MB MOISTURE AND INVERSION HEIGHTS TO NEAR 10K
FT...SOME STRONGER SNOWBANDS MAY DEVELOP WITH BRIEF HEAVY SNOW.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE SHIFTING LOCATION OF THE BANDS...OVERALL
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD STILL REMAIN IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE. WITH THE
LONGER FETCH INTO THE EAST...SOME ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS TO AROUND 4
INCHES MAY BE POSSIBLE NEAR OR JUST INLAND FROM GRAND MARAIS. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS INTO THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR WILL
ALSO CAUSE AREA OF BLSN.
FRIDAY...LES WILL DIMINISH FROM THE WEST AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE
REGION ALONG WITH ACYC FLOW AND LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS AND (AOB
4K FT). HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE MAY BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE EAST AS THE 850 MB THERMAL TROUGH (850 MB TEMPS
AROUND -18C) LINGERS INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 537 AM EST THU MAR 8 2012
...RAIN FOLLOWED BY SIGNIFICANT WARM-UP EARLY-MID NEXT WEEK MAY
RESULT IN HYDRO ISSUES...
NOTE: SEE LATER PORTION OF THIS LONG TERM DISCUSSION FOR THOUGHTS ON
POSSIBLE HYDROLOGY ISSUES.
POP/WX WISE IT IS PRETTY QUIET FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
WARM AIR ADVECTIONS RAMPING UP AGAIN COULD LEAD TO BATCH OF LGT SNOW
OVR LK SUPERIOR AND PERHAPS THE FAR NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE CWA.
OTHERWISE JUST A PERIOD OF MID CLOUDS. MAIN STORY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY WILL BE GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS.
TREND THAT BEGAN TO APPEAR IN MODELS YESTERDAY CONTINUES TODAY. AS
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES EAST FRIDAY NIGHT SFC TROUGH OVR CNTRL
CANADA WILL STEAMROLL EAST BY SUNRISE SATURDAY. TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT ENSUES AND VERY STRONG PRESSURE FALLS /OVR 12MB IN 6 HR/
ARE FCST NORTH OF LK SUPERIOR. PATTERN SUGGESTS THAT DESPITE WARM
AIR ADVECTION REGIME...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS COULD BECOME QUITE
GUSTY. FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A LOT OF WIND JUST ABOVE SFC /50+ KTS
AT 925MB PER GFS/ECMWF/NAM/ BUT IT IS STABLE. BLYR WINDS USUALLY DO
A GOOD JOB HIGHLIGHTING HOW STRONG WINDS COULD GET AND THIS OUTPUT
POINTS TO SOLID 35-40 KTS. GALES OVR LK SUPERIOR AND PROBABLY
NEARSHORE ZONES OF LK MICHIGAN GOOD BET. ALSO...GOING TO MENTION
SOME NEAR ADVY GUSTS IN HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH SHORE OF
LK SUPERIOR. BASED ON SFC WIND DIRECTION AND WHERE CORE OF STRONGEST
WINDS IS FCST...THE SHORELINE FM BARAGA TO MARQUETTE ALONG LK
SUPERIOR WOULD SEE STRONGEST WINDS. ALSO COULD SEE STRONGER WINDS
OVR KEWEENAW COUNTY AS THAT AREA IS EXPOSED TO SOUTHERLY
FLOW...ESPECIALLY HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. PRESSURE FALL MOVES STEADILY
TO THE EAST THROUGH THE DAY...BUT SOUNDINGS POINT TO BREEZY
CONDITIONS CONTINUING FOR MUCH OF SATURDAY AS MIXING WILL BE HIGHER
DUE TO MAINLY SUNNY SKIES. AS SOUTH WINDS KICK UP LATER FRIDAY NIGHT
TEMPS SHOULD BEGIN TO RISE OVR MUCH OF CWA. USED NON-DIURNAL TEMP
CURVE INTO SATURDAY WITH LOWS FRIDAY EVENING IN THE TEENS AND TEMPS
RISING TOWARD FREEZING BY SUNRISE SATURDAY. MIXING TO H9 ON SATURDAY
SEEMS PRETTY GOOD CONSIDERING AMOUNT OF INSOLATION EXPECTED. MIXING
THIS HIGH GAVE READINGS INTO THE 50S OVR MOST OF THE WEST HALF OF
CWA. SW WINDS WILL KEEP LK MICHIGAN AND INLAND AREAS OF EAST CWA
COOLER IN THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S.
IN THE EXTENDED...COULD BE AN ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD OVR MUCH OF UPR
LAKES...BUT NOT NECESSARILY FM AMOUNT OF STORM SYSTEMS. RATHER...ONE
SYSTEM LOOKS TO BRING LGT MAYBE MODERATE RAIN AMOUNTS TO AREA LATER
SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT THEN A VERY SIGNIFICANT WARM-UP IS IN
STILL LOOKS TO BE IN THE OFFING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. IF ALL
GOES AS PLANNED...MOST AREAS IN THE CWA BY THIS TIME NEXT WEEK WILL
HAVE LOST A MAJORITY IF NOT ALL OF THE SNOWPACK. WILL BE SOMETHING
TO MONITOR INTO NEXT WEEK AS THERE COULD BE SOME HYDRO ISSUES GIVEN
POTENTIAL TO MELT THE SNOW RATHER QUICKLY. LOW PRESSURE STILL FCST
TO LIFT FM THE PLAINS/MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO THE UPR LAKES
LATE SUNDAY. IN A GENERAL SENSE...THREE MAIN MODELS USED FOR THE
EXTENDED /GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN/ ALL SHOW THIS SYSTEM IMPACTING UPR MI.
TIMING IS NOT SET THOUGH...AS LATEST ECMWF NOW BRINGS THE LOW MORE
ACROSS LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS TIMING IS CLOSER TO
CANADIAN BUT STRAYS SIGNIFICANTLY FM NCEP MODELS /GFS AND NAM/. NCEP
PREFERRED SLOWER APPROACH AS THERE COULD BE SOME BLOCKING AHEAD OF
THE FEATURE. TRENDED THIS WAY IN GRIDS. HIGHEST CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT
STILL LOOKED FINE. MAIN CHANGE TO CONSENSUS ALLBLEND APPROACH WAS TO
KEEP CHANCE POPS IN FOR ALL DAY MONDAY.
ONCE THE SYSTEM CLEARS THE AREA LATER MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...ATTN IS
ON POTENTIAL WARM-UP. SEEMS LIKE MORE OFTEN THAN NOT IN RECENT YEARS
WE HAVE LOST THE SNOWPACK IN THE SPRING WITH MORE OF A GRADUAL WARM
UP IN A STEADY FREEZE-THAW CYCLE /RISING ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE
DAYS BUT FALLING BLO AT NIGHT/. WE SEE HOW WHEN THIS DOES NOT WORK
WHAT CAN HAPPEN AS YESTERDAY AT THE OFFICE IN NEGAUNEE TWP WITH
HIGHS AROUND 50 DEGREES AND DWPNTS WELL INTO THE 40S...WE LOST 8
INCHES OF OUR SNOWPACK IN ONE DAY! AFTER OUR BREAK IN THE SNOWMELT
THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...SEEMS LIKE WE COULD BE HEADING FOR SIMILAR
QUICK SNOWMELT LATE THIS WEEKEND THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK. MAIN CONCERN
WOULD BE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS ECMWF /WHICH FOR MOST PART USUALLY
LEADS WAY ON THESE TYPE OF WARM-UPS WELL OVER CLIMATOLOGY/ INDICATES
MAX TEMPS PUSHING OVER 60 DEGREES OVR AT LEAST THE WEST HALF OF THE
CWA. ALLBLEND GUIDANCE /BIASED TOWARD THE GFS/ WAS MUCH COOLER AND
WAS ADJUSTED UPWARD FOR BOTH DAYS. ECMWF ALSO INDICATES DWPNTS
RISING ABOVE 40...ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF WEAK TROUGH FCST
TO COME THROUGH ON THURSDAY.
A COUPLE OF CAUTIONS THOUGH. LATEST ECMWF NOW TRYING TO SHOW MORE
OF A TYPICAL SPRING LIKE MSLP PATTERN ON TUESDAY WITH POSSIBLE LAKE
BREEZES AS MAIN TROUGH REMAINS OVR PLAINS. TRIMMED TEMPS SLIGHTLY
TOWARD LK SUPERIOR SHORE FOR TUESDAY...WITH BETTER SHOT OF THE
REALLY WARM TEMPS STAYING INLAND TOWARD WI BORDER. TROUGH IS CLOSE
ENOUGH ON WEDNESDAY TO RESULT IN MAINLY SW FLOW FOR ALL AREAS AND
ALLOWING THE WARM TEMPS RIGHT TO PUSH TO THE LK SUPERIOR SHORE AS
WELL ALONG WITH DWPNTS RISING WELL ABOVE 40F. OBVIOUSLY GIVEN THIS
KIND OF MOISTURE ADVECTION AND THE MELING SNOWPACK ONGOING...SOME
STRATUS/FOG IS NOT OUT OF QUESTION WHICH WOULD IMPACT TEMPS. STILL
QUESTIONS IN SPECIFICS BUT THIS TIME FRAME COULD POSE SOME ISSUES
WITH REGARD TO RISES ON RIVES/STREAMS AND SOME AREAL FLOODING
CONCERNS IN LOW-LYING SPOTS AS WELL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 558 AM EST THU MAR 8 2012
EXPECT MAINLY MVFR CIGS TODAY WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING OVER
THE AREA. AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE/STEEP LAPSE RATES/DAYTIME
HEATING WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SCT/NMRS -SHSN LATER THIS AFTN INTO THE
EVENING HRS. MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY PREVAIL...THOUGH SOME
BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR MAY OCCUR DEPENDING ON THE INTENSITY OF THE
-SHSN. SHSN WILL TRANSITION TO LES AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN TONIGHT
BUT SHOULD MAINLY AFFECT KCMX. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE
LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH BLSN ALSO DEVELOPING AT KCMX.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 537 AM EST THU MAR 8 2012
A COUPLE OF PERIODS OF GALES ON THE LAKE INTO THIS WEEKEND. FIRST
GALE EVENT IS TONIGHT WITH COLD AND UNSTABLE PROFILE OVER THE LAKE.
SHOULD SEE FREQUENT GUSTS 35-40 KTS AND HAVE ISSUED GALE WARNING FOR
ALL OF LK SUPERIOR INTO EARLY FRIDAY. HAVE ALSO POSTED HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY WARNING FOR TONIGHT. NOT OUT OF QUESTION THAT THIS MAY BE LAST
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY EPISODE OF WINTER.
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST GALES THEN LOOK LIKELY LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER LK SUPERIOR. WARM AIR
ADVECTION REGIME KEEPS HIGHER STABILITY IN LOW-LEVELS...BUT THINK
THIS WILL BE OFFSET BY VERY STRONG PRESSURE FALLS SLIDING JUST NORTH
OF LK SUPERIOR. SETUP USUALLY RESULTS IN STRONGEST WINDS OVER
EASTERN HALF OF LK SUPERIOR. WINDS SETTLE DOWN CONSIDERABLY BY LATER
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WIND DIRECTION LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDANT ON TRACK OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
FM CENTRAL PLAINS. EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN LESS THAN 30 KTS AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 11 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LSZ267.
GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 11 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LSZ266.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS
EVENING TO 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ FRIDAY FOR LSZ162-240>245-
248-263>265.
GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM EST /9 PM CST/ THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST
/5 AM CST/ FRIDAY FOR LSZ162-263.
GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LSZ264-
265.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JLB
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
539 AM EST THU MAR 8 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 537 AM EST THU MAR 8 2012
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
FROM NW ONTARIO THROUGH WRN MN INTO ERN NEBRASKA. A BAND OF LIGHT
SNOW MOVING QUICKLY THROUGH THE ERN CWA WAS SUPPORTED BY 700-600 MB
FGEN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT EXITED UPPER MI TO THE SE.
OTHERWISE...JUST A FEW FLURRIES REMAINED OVER CNTRL UPPER MI. AN
UPSTREAM SHRTWV WAS MOVING FROM SE SASK TOWARD SRN MANITOBA. AT THE
SFC..NW WINDS PREVAILED BTWN A TROUGH FROM QUEBEC TO LAKE HURON AND
A RIDGFROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO NW ONTARIO. THE CLIPPER LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER SHRTWVWAS LOCATED OVER N CNTRL MANTIOBA
WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT TO THE SW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 537 AM EST THU MAR 8 2012
TODAY...EXPECT THE MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE AREA BY
AFTERNOON TO BE REINFORCED BY THE SASK SHRTWV BY LATE TODAY. THE
COMBINATION OF INCREASING 700-500 MB QVECTOR CONV...DEEPER
MOISTURE...DAYTIME HEATING AND STEEP 900-700 MB LAPSE RATES NEAR 8
C/KM WILL SUPPORT SCT SHSN DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY LATE.
TONIGHT...SHSN WILL TRANSITION TO LES AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES
(850 MB TEMPS ARE FCST TO DROP INTO THE -14C TO -18C RANGE) AND WINDS
VEER TO THE NW. AS THE WINDS VEER THE STRONGER LOW LEVEL CONV WILL
SHIFT FROM WRN UPPER MI INTO THE NE CWA E OF MARQUETTE. WITH
FAVORABLE 850-700 MB MOISTURE AND INVERSION HEIGHTS TO NEAR 10K
FT...SOME STRONGER SNOWBANDS MAY DEVELOP WITH BRIEF HEAVY SNOW.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE SHIFTING LOCATION OF THE BANDS...OVERALL
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD STILL REMAIN IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE. WITH THE
LONGER FETCH INTO THE EAST...SOME ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS TO AROUND 4
INCHES MAY BE POSSIBLE NEAR OR JUST INLAND FROM GRAND MARAIS. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS INTO THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR WILL
ALSO CAUSE AREA OF BLSN.
FRIDAY...LES WILL DIMINISH FROM THE WEST AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE
REGION ALONG WITH ACYC FLOW AND LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS AND (AOB
4K FT). HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE MAY BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE EAST AS THE 850 MB THERMAL TROUGH (850 MB TEMPS
AROUND -18C) LINGERS INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 537 AM EST THU MAR 8 2012
...RAIN FOLLOWED BY SIGNIFICANT WARM-UP EARLY-MID NEXT WEEK MAY
RESULT IN HYDRO ISSUES...
NOTE: SEE LATER PORTION OF THIS LONG TERM DISCUSSION FOR THOUGHTS ON
POSSIBLE HYDROLOGY ISSUES.
POP/WX WISE IT IS PRETTY QUIET FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
WARM AIR ADVECTIONS RAMPING UP AGAIN COULD LEAD TO BATCH OF LGT SNOW
OVR LK SUPERIOR AND PERHAPS THE FAR NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE CWA.
OTHERWISE JUST A PERIOD OF MID CLOUDS. MAIN STORY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY WILL BE GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS.
TREND THAT BEGAN TO APPEAR IN MODELS YESTERDAY CONTINUES TODAY. AS
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES EAST FRIDAY NIGHT SFC TROUGH OVR CNTRL
CANADA WILL STEAMROLL EAST BY SUNRISE SATURDAY. TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT ENSUES AND VERY STRONG PRESSURE FALLS /OVR 12MB IN 6 HR/
ARE FCST NORTH OF LK SUPERIOR. PATTERN SUGGESTS THAT DESPITE WARM
AIR ADVECTION REGIME...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS COULD BECOME QUITE
GUSTY. FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A LOT OF WIND JUST ABOVE SFC /50+ KTS
AT 925MB PER GFS/ECMWF/NAM/ BUT IT IS STABLE. BLYR WINDS USUALLY DO
A GOOD JOB HIGHLIGHTING HOW STRONG WINDS COULD GET AND THIS OUTPUT
POINTS TO SOLID 35-40 KTS. GALES OVR LK SUPERIOR AND PROBABLY
NEARSHORE ZONES OF LK MICHIGAN GOOD BET. ALSO...GOING TO MENTION
SOME NEAR ADVY GUSTS IN HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH SHORE OF
LK SUPERIOR. BASED ON SFC WIND DIRECTION AND WHERE CORE OF STRONGEST
WINDS IS FCST...THE SHORELINE FM BARAGA TO MARQUETTE ALONG LK
SUPERIOR WOULD SEE STRONGEST WINDS. ALSO COULD SEE STRONGER WINDS
OVR KEWEENAW COUNTY AS THAT AREA IS EXPOSED TO SOUTHERLY
FLOW...ESPECIALLY HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. PRESSURE FALL MOVES STEADILY
TO THE EAST THROUGH THE DAY...BUT SOUNDINGS POINT TO BREEZY
CONDITIONS CONTINUING FOR MUCH OF SATURDAY AS MIXING WILL BE HIGHER
DUE TO MAINLY SUNNY SKIES. AS SOUTH WINDS KICK UP LATER FRIDAY NIGHT
TEMPS SHOULD BEGIN TO RISE OVR MUCH OF CWA. USED NON-DIURNAL TEMP
CURVE INTO SATURDAY WITH LOWS FRIDAY EVENING IN THE TEENS AND TEMPS
RISING TOWARD FREEZING BY SUNRISE SATURDAY. MIXING TO H9 ON SATURDAY
SEEMS PRETTY GOOD CONSIDERING AMOUNT OF INSOLATION EXPECTED. MIXING
THIS HIGH GAVE READINGS INTO THE 50S OVR MOST OF THE WEST HALF OF
CWA. SW WINDS WILL KEEP LK MICHIGAN AND INLAND AREAS OF EAST CWA
COOLER IN THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S.
IN THE EXTENDED...COULD BE AN ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD OVR MUCH OF UPR
LAKES...BUT NOT NECESSARILY FM AMOUNT OF STORM SYSTEMS. RATHER...ONE
SYSTEM LOOKS TO BRING LGT MAYBE MODERATE RAIN AMOUNTS TO AREA LATER
SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT THEN A VERY SIGNIFICANT WARM-UP IS IN
STILL LOOKS TO BE IN THE OFFING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. IF ALL
GOES AS PLANNED...MOST AREAS IN THE CWA BY THIS TIME NEXT WEEK WILL
HAVE LOST A MAJORITY IF NOT ALL OF THE SNOWPACK. WILL BE SOMETHING
TO MONITOR INTO NEXT WEEK AS THERE COULD BE SOME HYDRO ISSUES GIVEN
POTENTIAL TO MELT THE SNOW RATHER QUICKLY. LOW PRESSURE STILL FCST
TO LIFT FM THE PLAINS/MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO THE UPR LAKES
LATE SUNDAY. IN A GENERAL SENSE...THREE MAIN MODELS USED FOR THE
EXTENDED /GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN/ ALL SHOW THIS SYSTEM IMPACTING UPR MI.
TIMING IS NOT SET THOUGH...AS LATEST ECMWF NOW BRINGS THE LOW MORE
ACROSS LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS TIMING IS CLOSER TO
CANADIAN BUT STRAYS SIGNIFICANTLY FM NCEP MODELS /GFS AND NAM/. NCEP
PREFERRED SLOWER APPROACH AS THERE COULD BE SOME BLOCKING AHEAD OF
THE FEATURE. TRENDED THIS WAY IN GRIDS. HIGHEST CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT
STILL LOOKED FINE. MAIN CHANGE TO CONSENSUS ALLBLEND APPROACH WAS TO
KEEP CHANCE POPS IN FOR ALL DAY MONDAY.
ONCE THE SYSTEM CLEARS THE AREA LATER MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...ATTN IS
ON POTENTIAL WARM-UP. SEEMS LIKE MORE OFTEN THAN NOT IN RECENT YEARS
WE HAVE LOST THE SNOWPACK IN THE SPRING WITH MORE OF A GRADUAL WARM
UP IN A STEADY FREEZE-THAW CYCLE /RISING ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE
DAYS BUT FALLING BLO AT NIGHT/. WE SEE HOW WHEN THIS DOES NOT WORK
WHAT CAN HAPPEN AS YESTERDAY AT THE OFFICE IN NEGAUNEE TWP WITH
HIGHS AROUND 50 DEGREES AND DWPNTS WELL INTO THE 40S...WE LOST 8
INCHES OF OUR SNOWPACK IN ONE DAY! AFTER OUR BREAK IN THE SNOWMELT
THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...SEEMS LIKE WE COULD BE HEADING FOR SIMILAR
QUICK SNOWMELT LATE THIS WEEKEND THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK. MAIN CONCERN
WOULD BE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS ECMWF /WHICH FOR MOST PART USUALLY
LEADS WAY ON THESE TYPE OF WARM-UPS WELL OVER CLIMATOLOGY/ INDICATES
MAX TEMPS PUSHING OVER 60 DEGREES OVR AT LEAST THE WEST HALF OF THE
CWA. ALLBLEND GUIDANCE /BIASED TOWARD THE GFS/ WAS MUCH COOLER AND
WAS ADJUSTED UPWARD FOR BOTH DAYS. ECMWF ALSO INDICATES DWPNTS
RISING ABOVE 40...ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF WEAK TROUGH FCST
TO COME THROUGH ON THURSDAY.
A COUPLE OF CAUTIONS THOUGH. LATEST ECMWF NOW TRYING TO SHOW MORE
OF A TYPICAL SPRING LIKE MSLP PATTERN ON TUESDAY WITH POSSIBLE LAKE
BREEZES AS MAIN TROUGH REMAINS OVR PLAINS. TRIMMED TEMPS SLIGHTLY
TOWARD LK SUPERIOR SHORE FOR TUESDAY...WITH BETTER SHOT OF THE
REALLY WARM TEMPS STAYING INLAND TOWARD WI BORDER. TROUGH IS CLOSE
ENOUGH ON WEDNESDAY TO RESULT IN MAINLY SW FLOW FOR ALL AREAS AND
ALLOWING THE WARM TEMPS RIGHT TO PUSH TO THE LK SUPERIOR SHORE AS
WELL ALONG WITH DWPNTS RISING WELL ABOVE 40F. OBVIOUSLY GIVEN THIS
KIND OF MOISTURE ADVECTION AND THE MELING SNOWPACK ONGOING...SOME
STRATUS/FOG IS NOT OUT OF QUESTION WHICH WOULD IMPACT TEMPS. STILL
QUESTIONS IN SPECIFICS BUT THIS TIME FRAME COULD POSE SOME ISSUES
WITH REGARD TO RISES ON RIVES/STREAMS AND SOME AREAL FLOODING
CONCERNS IN LOW-LYING SPOTS AS WELL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 537 AM EST THU MAR 8 2012
WITH DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE AREA BEHIND COLD FRONT...LOW
MVFR/IFR CIGS AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW SHOULD RISE TO THE UPPER MVFR RANGE
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS...AND NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT CIGS
COULD RISE TO VFR LATER IN THE NIGHT. ONGOING -SN WILL DIMINISH AND
SHOULD NOT POSE MUCH VIS RESTRICTION LATER IN THE NIGHT AS WELL.
APPROACHING DISTURBANCE/STEEP LAPSE RATES/DAYTIME HEATING WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO SCT/NMRS -SHSN LATER THIS AFTN INTO THE EVENING HRS.
MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY PREVAIL...THOUGH SOME BRIEF PERIODS
OF IFR MAY OCCUR DEPENDING ON INTENSITY OF -SHSN.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 537 AM EST THU MAR 8 2012
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST GALES LOOKING LIKELY LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER LK SUPERIOR. WARM AIR
ADVECTION REGIME KEEPS HIGHER STABILITY IN LOW-LEVELS...BUT THINK
THIS WILL BE OFFSET BY VERY STRONG PRESSURE FALLS SLIDING JUST NORTH
OF LK SUPERIOR. SETUP USUALLY RESULTS IN STRONGEST WINDS OVER
EASTERN HALF OF LK SUPERIOR. WINDS SETTLE DOWN CONSIDERABLY BY LATER
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WIND DIRECTION LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDANT ON TRACK OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
FM CENTRAL PLAINS. EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN LESS THAN 30 KTS AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 11 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LSZ267.
GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 11 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LSZ266.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS
EVENING TO 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ FRIDAY FOR LSZ162-240>245-
248-263>265.
GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM EST /9 PM CST/ THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST
/5 AM CST/ FRIDAY FOR LSZ162-263.
GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LSZ264-
265.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JLB
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS DULUTH MN
1141 AM CST THU MAR 8 2012
.AVIATION...18Z TAF ISSUANCE...
TEMPORARY RIDGING CROSSING CWA LATE THIS MORNING. VFR AT ALL
TERMINALS EXCEPT KBRD WHERE EARLIER SYSTEM HAS LEFT MVFR CEILINGS.
STRONG WINDS ALOFT BEGINNING TO MIX DOWN WITH DAYTIME WARMING OF
BDRY LYR. VIGOROUS COLD FRONT/UPPER SYSTEM APPROACHING THE CWA QUICKLY
AND EXPECT A BURST OF MDT/POSSIBLY HEAVY SNOW TO ACCOMPANY THIS
SYSTEM THIS AFTN. USED TEMPO DUE TO FAST MOVING NATURE OF FEATURE
AND EXPECT IFR DURING THE SNOW. RAPID CLEARING EXPECTED THIS
EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST AS DEEP LAYER DRYING OCCURS BEHIND
FRONT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1000 AM CST THU MAR 8 2012/
UPDATE...
ADDED SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SRN COUNTIES THIS MORNING
TO ACCOUNT FOR A SMALL CLUSTER OF SNOW SHOWERS MOVING FROM E-CNTRL
MN INTO WI. STILL ANTICIPATING THE CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...AND AFTER LOOKING AT THE LATEST HIGH- RES
SHORT TERM MODELS...LOOKS VERY UNSTABLE IN THE LOW AND MID
LEVELS... WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND 50-80 J/KG OF LOW-LVL
CAPE...AND ALSO VERY SUPPORTIVE ALOFT FOR A QUICK INCH OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NW THIS AFTERNOON...AND
COMBINE WITH THE SNOW SHOWERS TO PRODUCE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW.
VISIBILITIES COULD BE REDUCED TO A MILE OR LESS AT TIMES IN THE
BLOWING SNOW. A STRONG 140KT JET WILL PUSH IN FROM THE NW...WITH
THE NORTHLAND IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION...ALSO A STRONG 500MB VORT
MAX WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION TO HELP WITH VERTICAL MOTION.
SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE THROUGH VERY RAPIDLY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
ON THE BACK SIDE.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 654 AM CST THU MAR 8 2012/
AVIATION.../12Z TAF ISSUANCE/
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL TRACK SEWD ACROSS THE NORTHLAND THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BRINGING INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND AREAS
OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION. CIGS AND VSBYS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FROPA WILL BE IN THE MVFR/LOW VFR RANGE. THE SNOW SHOULD END LATE
THIS EVENING OVER OVERNIGHT AND SKIES WILL SCTR OUT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM CST THU MAR 8 2012/
SHORT TERM...THE SHORT TERM FOCUS IS ON WINDS AND SNOW SHOWER
POTENTIAL ACROSS THE NORTHLAND.
AT 330 AM...FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER WAS MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND ALTHOUGH THERE WERE SEVERAL AREAS OF THIN CLOUDS.
TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE UPPER 20S IN PORTIONS OF NW WI...TO
NEAR 10 ABOVE FAR NORTHWEST.
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHLAND TODAY. STRONG CAA
WILL BECOME FAIRLY NEUTRAL THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE NAM INDICATES
THAT AT LEAST A COUPLE SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION IN
NW FLOW TODAY. EACH WILL BE CAPABLE OF GENERATING SOME SNOW
SHOWERS...BUT THE BEST CHANCE SHOULD BE ACROSS THE NORTH IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WITH COLD AIR ALOFT AND SOME SURFACE
HEATING BETWEEN SNOW SHOWERS...THINK SOME OF THE SNOW SHOWERS
COULD BE FAIRLY STRONG THIS AFTERNOON...EVEN BRINGING SOME GUSTY
WINDS WITH THE SNOW SHOWERS.
THE BIGGER STORY FOR TODAY MAY BE THE STRONG WINDS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE BROUGHT
WINDS UP QUITE A BIT. THE RUC SHOWS STRONG WINDS ALOFT MIXING DOWN
TO THE SURFACE. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR DULUTH INDICATE 40-50
KNOTS WORKING ITS WAY TO JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. AS A RESULT...WE
COULD EASILY SEE SOME 20 TO 30 MPH SUSTAINED WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH HIGHER GUSTS AS WELL. WINDS WILL THEN DECREASED OVERNIGHT AS
SKIES CLEAR FROM THE WEST. HAVE DROPPED TEMPS CONSIDERABLY FOR
TONIGHT...CLOSER TO THE MAV GUIDANCE. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW ZERO IN THE NORTH.
FRIDAY SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER...AS WAA PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION.
SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT OF AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY IN THE
NORTH. THINK MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN IN CANADA.
LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD WILL START OUT DRY AND MILD UNDER WITH A UPPER
RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES DUE TO STRONG SWRLY FLOW
IN THE LOW-LEVELS. HOWEVER THE RIDGE WILL GIVE WAY TO A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE CNTL PLAINS WHICH IS PROGGED
TO LIFT NEWD OVER THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THERE ARE
STILL SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE VARIOUS NWP MODEL
SOLUTIONS...WITH THE NAM/GFS TAKING THE LOW OFF TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST OF OUR CWA...WHILE THE ECMWF/GEM BRING IT RIGHT OVER THE
NORTHLAND. DUE TO THESE DIFFERENCES...WE WILL KEEP POPS IN THE
CHANCE CATEGORY ATTM. PRECIP TYPE SHOULD BE MAINLY RAIN DUE TO THE
WARM AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. BUT IF THE DYNAMIC
LIFT IS STRONG ENOUGH...THERE COULD BE A WINTRY MIX SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY MORNING. AFTER THE LOW MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...AN
UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY PATTERN WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND NEXT WEEK AS SOUTHWEST FLOW DOMINATES ACROSS THE CTRL
PART OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION.../06Z TAF ISSUANCE/
MVFR AND ISOLATED IFR IN CLOUDS AND SNOW IN A FRONTAL BAND SHOULD
MOVE OUT OF THE IWD AND GOGEBIC RANGE AREA LATE TONIGHT. MN NORTH
SHORE AND REST OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...MVFR IN CLOUDS IMPROVING
TO VFR SCATTERED WITH AREAS OF BROKEN CLOUDS BY DAY BREAK THURSDAY
MORNING. THE REST OF NORTHEAST MN...VFR THROUGH EARLY MORNING.
AREAS OF LOW-END VFR IN CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP MIDMORNING ACROSS
COASTAL WI AND NORTH OF ROUTE 2 IN NORTHEAST MN AFTER MIDMORNING
THURSDAY...AND PERSIST TILL LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. VFR CLEAR
BEGINNING THURSDAY EVENING. BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS...GUSTING TO 30
MPH...WILL CONTINUE INTO LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND SUBSIDE
DURING THURSDAY EVENING.
&&
.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 31 7 29 25 / 30 30 0 10
INL 31 -5 32 22 / 40 20 10 10
BRD 34 5 35 29 / 30 10 0 0
HYR 33 5 33 27 / 30 30 0 10
ASX 34 10 30 25 / 30 30 0 10
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...CANNON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS DULUTH MN
1000 AM CST THU MAR 8 2012
.UPDATE...
ADDED SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SRN COUNTIES THIS MORNING
TO ACCOUNT FOR A SMALL CLUSTER OF SNOW SHOWERS MOVING FROM E-CNTRL
MN INTO WI. STILL ANTICIPATING THE CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...AND AFTER LOOKING AT THE LATEST HIGH- RES
SHORT TERM MODELS...LOOKS VERY UNSTABLE IN THE LOW AND MID
LEVELS... WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND 50-80 J/KG OF LOW-LVL
CAPE...AND ALSO VERY SUPPORTIVE ALOFT FOR A QUICK INCH OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NW THIS AFTERNOON...AND
COMBINE WITH THE SNOW SHOWERS TO PRODUCE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW.
VISIBILITIES COULD BE REDUCED TO A MILE OR LESS AT TIMES IN THE
BLOWING SNOW. A STRONG 140KT JET WILL PUSH IN FROM THE NW...WITH
THE NORTHLAND IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION...ALSO A STRONG 500MB VORT
MAX WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION TO HELP WITH VERTICAL MOTION.
SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE THROUGH VERY RAPIDLY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
ON THE BACK SIDE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 654 AM CST THU MAR 8 2012/
AVIATION.../12Z TAF ISSUANCE/
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL TRACK SEWD ACROSS THE NORTHLAND THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BRINGING INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND AREAS
OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION. CIGS AND VSBYS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FROPA WILL BE IN THE MVFR/LOW VFR RANGE. THE SNOW SHOULD END LATE
THIS EVENING OVER OVERNIGHT AND SKIES WILL SCTR OUT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM CST THU MAR 8 2012/
SHORT TERM...THE SHORT TERM FOCUS IS ON WINDS AND SNOW SHOWER
POTENTIAL ACROSS THE NORTHLAND.
AT 330 AM...FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER WAS MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND ALTHOUGH THERE WERE SEVERAL AREAS OF THIN CLOUDS.
TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE UPPER 20S IN PORTIONS OF NW WI...TO
NEAR 10 ABOVE FAR NORTHWEST.
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHLAND TODAY. STRONG CAA
WILL BECOME FAIRLY NEUTRAL THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE NAM INDICATES
THAT AT LEAST A COUPLE SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION IN
NW FLOW TODAY. EACH WILL BE CAPABLE OF GENERATING SOME SNOW
SHOWERS...BUT THE BEST CHANCE SHOULD BE ACROSS THE NORTH IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WITH COLD AIR ALOFT AND SOME SURFACE
HEATING BETWEEN SNOW SHOWERS...THINK SOME OF THE SNOW SHOWERS
COULD BE FAIRLY STRONG THIS AFTERNOON...EVEN BRINGING SOME GUSTY
WINDS WITH THE SNOW SHOWERS.
THE BIGGER STORY FOR TODAY MAY BE THE STRONG WINDS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE BROUGHT
WINDS UP QUITE A BIT. THE RUC SHOWS STRONG WINDS ALOFT MIXING DOWN
TO THE SURFACE. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR DULUTH INDICATE 40-50
KNOTS WORKING ITS WAY TO JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. AS A RESULT...WE
COULD EASILY SEE SOME 20 TO 30 MPH SUSTAINED WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH HIGHER GUSTS AS WELL. WINDS WILL THEN DECREASED OVERNIGHT AS
SKIES CLEAR FROM THE WEST. HAVE DROPPED TEMPS CONSIDERABLY FOR
TONIGHT...CLOSER TO THE MAV GUIDANCE. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW ZERO IN THE NORTH.
FRIDAY SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER...AS WAA PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION.
SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT OF AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY IN THE
NORTH. THINK MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN IN CANADA.
LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD WILL START OUT DRY AND MILD UNDER WITH A UPPER
RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES DUE TO STRONG SWRLY FLOW
IN THE LOW-LEVELS. HOWEVER THE RIDGE WILL GIVE WAY TO A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE CNTL PLAINS WHICH IS PROGGED
TO LIFT NEWD OVER THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THERE ARE
STILL SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE VARIOUS NWP MODEL
SOLUTIONS...WITH THE NAM/GFS TAKING THE LOW OFF TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST OF OUR CWA...WHILE THE ECMWF/GEM BRING IT RIGHT OVER THE
NORTHLAND. DUE TO THESE DIFFERENCES...WE WILL KEEP POPS IN THE
CHANCE CATEGORY ATTM. PRECIP TYPE SHOULD BE MAINLY RAIN DUE TO THE
WARM AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. BUT IF THE DYNAMIC
LIFT IS STRONG ENOUGH...THERE COULD BE A WINTRY MIX SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY MORNING. AFTER THE LOW MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...AN
UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY PATTERN WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND NEXT WEEK AS SOUTHWEST FLOW DOMINATES ACROSS THE CTRL
PART OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION.../06Z TAF ISSUANCE/
MVFR AND ISOLATED IFR IN CLOUDS AND SNOW IN A FRONTAL BAND SHOULD
MOVE OUT OF THE IWD AND GOGEBIC RANGE AREA LATE TONIGHT. MN NORTH
SHORE AND REST OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...MVFR IN CLOUDS IMPROVING
TO VFR SCATTERED WITH AREAS OF BROKEN CLOUDS BY DAY BREAK THURSDAY
MORNING. THE REST OF NORTHEAST MN...VFR THROUGH EARLY MORNING.
AREAS OF LOW-END VFR IN CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP MIDMORNING ACROSS
COASTAL WI AND NORTH OF ROUTE 2 IN NORTHEAST MN AFTER MIDMORNING
THURSDAY...AND PERSIST TILL LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. VFR CLEAR
BEGINNING THURSDAY EVENING. BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS...GUSTING TO 30
MPH...WILL CONTINUE INTO LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND SUBSIDE
DURING THURSDAY EVENING.
&&
.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 31 7 29 25 / 30 30 0 10
INL 31 -5 32 22 / 40 20 10 10
BRD 34 5 35 29 / 30 10 0 0
HYR 33 5 33 27 / 30 30 0 10
ASX 34 10 30 25 / 30 30 0 10
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TENTINGER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
654 AM CST THU MAR 8 2012
.AVIATION.../12Z TAF ISSUANCE/
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL TRACK SEWD ACROSS THE NORTHLAND THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BRINGING INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND AREAS
OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION. CIGS AND VSBYS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FROPA WILL BE IN THE MVFR/LOW VFR RANGE. THE SNOW SHOULD END LATE
THIS EVENING OVER OVERNIGHT AND SKIES WILL SCTR OUT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM CST THU MAR 8 2012/
SHORT TERM...THE SHORT TERM FOCUS IS ON WINDS AND SNOW SHOWER
POTENTIAL ACROSS THE NORTHLAND.
AT 330 AM...FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER WAS MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND ALTHOUGH THERE WERE SEVERAL AREAS OF THIN CLOUDS.
TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE UPPER 20S IN PORTIONS OF NW WI...TO
NEAR 10 ABOVE FAR NORTHWEST.
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHLAND TODAY. STRONG CAA
WILL BECOME FAIRLY NEUTRAL THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE NAM INDICATES
THAT AT LEAST A COUPLE SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION IN
NW FLOW TODAY. EACH WILL BE CAPABLE OF GENERATING SOME SNOW
SHOWERS...BUT THE BEST CHANCE SHOULD BE ACROSS THE NORTH IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WITH COLD AIR ALOFT AND SOME SURFACE
HEATING BETWEEN SNOW SHOWERS...THINK SOME OF THE SNOW SHOWERS
COULD BE FAIRLY STRONG THIS AFTERNOON...EVEN BRINGING SOME GUSTY
WINDS WITH THE SNOW SHOWERS.
THE BIGGER STORY FOR TODAY MAY BE THE STRONG WINDS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE BROUGHT
WINDS UP QUITE A BIT. THE RUC SHOWS STRONG WINDS ALOFT MIXING DOWN
TO THE SURFACE. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR DULUTH INDICATE 40-50
KNOTS WORKING ITS WAY TO JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. AS A RESULT...WE
COULD EASILY SEE SOME 20 TO 30 MPH SUSTAINED WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH HIGHER GUSTS AS WELL. WINDS WILL THEN DECREASED OVERNIGHT AS
SKIES CLEAR FROM THE WEST. HAVE DROPPED TEMPS CONSIDERABLY FOR
TONIGHT...CLOSER TO THE MAV GUIDANCE. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW ZERO IN THE NORTH.
FRIDAY SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER...AS WAA PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION.
SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT OF AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY IN THE
NORTH. THINK MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN IN CANADA.
LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD WILL START OUT DRY AND MILD UNDER WITH A UPPER
RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES DUE TO STRONG SWRLY FLOW
IN THE LOW-LEVELS. HOWEVER THE RIDGE WILL GIVE WAY TO A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE CNTL PLAINS WHICH IS PROGGED
TO LIFT NEWD OVER THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THERE ARE
STILL SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE VARIOUS NWP MODEL
SOLUTIONS...WITH THE NAM/GFS TAKING THE LOW OFF TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST OF OUR CWA...WHILE THE ECMWF/GEM BRING IT RIGHT OVER THE
NORTHLAND. DUE TO THESE DIFFERENCES...WE WILL KEEP POPS IN THE
CHANCE CATEGORY ATTM. PRECIP TYPE SHOULD BE MAINLY RAIN DUE TO THE
WARM AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. BUT IF THE DYNAMIC
LIFT IS STRONG ENOUGH...THERE COULD BE A WINTRY MIX SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY MORNING. AFTER THE LOW MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...AN
UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY PATTERN WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND NEXT WEEK AS SOUTHWEST FLOW DOMINATES ACROSS THE CTRL
PART OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION.../06Z TAF ISSUANCE/
MVFR AND ISOLATED IFR IN CLOUDS AND SNOW IN A FRONTAL BAND SHOULD
MOVE OUT OF THE IWD AND GOGEBIC RANGE AREA LATE TONIGHT. MN NORTH
SHORE AND REST OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...MVFR IN CLOUDS IMPROVING
TO VFR SCATTERED WITH AREAS OF BROKEN CLOUDS BY DAY BREAK THURSDAY
MORNING. THE REST OF NORTHEAST MN...VFR THROUGH EARLY MORNING.
AREAS OF LOW-END VFR IN CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP MIDMORNING ACROSS
COASTAL WI AND NORTH OF ROUTE 2 IN NORTHEAST MN AFTER MIDMORNING
THURSDAY...AND PERSIST TILL LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. VFR CLEAR
BEGINNING THURSDAY EVENING. BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS...GUSTING TO 30
MPH...WILL CONTINUE INTO LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND SUBSIDE
DURING THURSDAY EVENING.
&&
.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 32 7 29 25 / 30 30 0 10
INL 28 -5 32 22 / 40 20 10 10
BRD 34 5 35 29 / 30 10 0 0
HYR 35 5 33 27 / 30 30 0 10
ASX 34 10 30 25 / 30 30 0 10
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...BERDES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
620 AM CST THU MAR 8 2012
.UPDATE...
12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION ADDED BELOW.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE WINDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH COLD
AIR ADVECTION. THE NEXT POTENTIAL WEATHER MAKER IS THE EMERGENCE OF
THE CUTOFF LOW EARLY NEXT WEEK. FINALLY...THERMAL RIDGING WILL ALLOW
NEAR RECORD BREAKING HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID WEEK.
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...LATEST WV IMAGERY SHOWS TWO SHORTWAVES
ACROSS THE US/CANADA BORDER. THE FIRST ONE IS LOCATED OVER NORTH
DAKOTA...AND IS SPAWNING A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE RED RIVER
VALLEY. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO HEAD SOUTHEAST...SO HAVE
FLURRIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIERS. THE SECOND MORE POTENT WAVE IS
STREAMING DOWN FROM SASKATCHEWAN...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN AS IT HEADS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE STRONGEST
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH PV ANOMALY WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN
MINNESOTA...BUT EXPECT A FEW SNOW SHOWERS BY THE AFTERNOON.
SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP MIXING WITH 35 TO 40KTS ATOP THE MIXED
LAYER...SO HAVE A WIND ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN CWA. THIS IS ALSO
SUPPORTED BY THE ISALLOBARIC MAPS SHOWING THE PRESSURE RISES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE PASSING
SHORTWAVE. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN STRONG THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS...BEFORE TAPERING OFF THURSDAY NIGHT.
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE MIDWEST ALLOWING FOR SOUTHWEST FLOW AND LOW LEVEL WARM
AIR ADVECTION. THE ONLY CAVEAT IS A CUT OFF LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED
ACROSS THE 4CORNERS REGION THAT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHEAST FOR
THE WEEKEND. THERE IS STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT ON WHEN AND WHERE
THIS LOW GO...WITH THE ECMWF 08.00 CONSIDERABLY SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS
RUN...AS WELL AS THE LATEST GFS AND GEM. THEREFORE TRENDED SLOWER
WITH THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION AND KEPT SUNDAY AND MONDAY HIGH
TEMPS NEAR GUIDANCE WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF CLOUD COVER. ASIDE FROM
THIS SOLE CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD PRECIP...THE EXTENDED WILL BE DRY AND
WARM. HAVE INCREASED THE TEMPS FOR SATURDAY...AND TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY AS SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES ALLOW H925 TEMPS OF
8-10C TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE...WHICH SHOULD EQUATE TO MID
60S...ESPECIALLY AT THOSE LOCATION WITH NO SNOW PACK.
&&
.AVIATION.../12Z TAF ISSUANCE/
WATCHING TWO UPPER WAVES WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR -SN TODAY...ALONG
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME RATHER STRONG WINDS THIS EVENING.
FIRST WAVE AND BOUT OF WAA OUT AHEAD OF IT SENDING QUICK BURST OF
IFR VSBY SN ACROSS MN THIS MORNING. IN GENERAL...HAVE SEEN 1-2
HOURS OF AROUND 2SM SNOW IN WRN MN. RUC TAKES THIS SNOW EAST THIS
MORNING...PUTTING STC/MSP/RNH AND POSSIBLE EAU IN LINE FOR
SNOW...THOUGH THE RUC BREAKS THE SNOW DOWN BY THE TIME IT REACHES
EAU. THERE WILL THEN BE ABOUT A 4 HOUR BREAK BEFORE NEXT WAVE
CURRENTLY UP OVER SASK DROPS SE TOWARD NW WI THIS EVENING. BEST
FORCING/MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA...THOUGH
REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS AND SREF PROBS DO INDICATE THAT ANOTHER
BRIEF BURST OF SNOW MAY BE POSSIBLE AT AXN/STC/RNH/EAU. MAY ALSO
SEE A BRIEF RETURN TO MVFR CIGS WITH THIS FEATURE AS WELL...BUT
KEPT CONDITIONS VFR GIVEN LOWER CONFIDENCE IN CIGS BEING THAT LOW
THIS FAR SOUTH. FOR WINDS...PRESSURE RISES...COLD AIR ADVECTION
AND MIXING POTENTIAL ALL LINE UP START MOVING INTO THE AXN AREA
AROUND 21Z AND EAU BY 06Z. THIS MEANS BEST GUST POTENTIAL LIKELY
NEAR TO A FEW HOURS AFTER 00Z. BASED ON NAM SOUNDINGS...COLD AIR
ADVECTION LOOKS TO OFFSET LOSS OF MIXING WITH SUNSET...SO WENT
SUBSTANTIALLY HIGHER THAN GFSLAMP WINDS FOR WHEN BEST FORCING FOR
WINDS MOVES THROUGH. WILL SEE A RAPID DECREASE IN NW WINDS AFTER
06Z AS SFC RIDGE MOVES IN FROM THE DAKOTAS.
KMSP...BASED ON FAIRLY WIDESPREAD -SN OBS TO THE WEST...ADDED A
TEMPO GROUP FOR SNOW. RUC/NAM/GFS ALL SPIT OUT A LITTLE SNOW
AROUND 15Z...HENCE THE 14Z TO 16Z TIMING. UPSTREAM OBS HAVE SHOW
VIS DOWN IN THE 1-3SM RANGE WITH CIGS 012-025 IN THE -SN. SKIES
WILL LIKELY BE MAINLY SKC FOR A TIME BEHIND THIS WAVE...BEFORE
THINGS CLOUD BACK UP AHEAD OF THE SASK WAVE. ANY SNOW LOOKS TO
REMAIN NORTH OF THE FIELD...BUT WINDS CERTAINLY LOOK TO BE ROCKING
BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ARRIVES. MAY BE
A BIT OVERDONE IN THE TAF...BUT NAM HAS BEEN PRETTY PERSISTENT IN
MIXING DOWN SOME 30 TO 40 KT WINDS IN THIS TIME FRAME...SO ADDED
QUITE A BIT TO THE WINDS. BY FRIDAY MORNING...WINDS WILL LIKELY BE
LGT AND VRB.
//OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
.FRI-SUN...VFR. SAT MORNING...LLWS POSSIBLE WITH STRONG WSW WINDS DURING
THE DAY...POSSIBLE CROSS WIND ISSUES.
.SUN NIGHT-MON...MVFR POSSIBLE WITH CHANCE OF -RA.
.TUE...VFR.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CST THIS EVENING
FOR BENTON-DOUGLAS-KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-MORRISON-POPE-STEARNS-
STEVENS-SWIFT-TODD.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
JRB/MPG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
403 AM CST THU MAR 8 2012
.SHORT TERM...THE SHORT TERM FOCUS IS ON WINDS AND SNOW SHOWER
POTENTIAL ACROSS THE NORTHLAND.
AT 330 AM...FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER WAS MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND ALTHOUGH THERE WERE SEVERAL AREAS OF THIN CLOUDS.
TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE UPPER 20S IN PORTIONS OF NW WI...TO
NEAR 10 ABOVE FAR NORTHWEST.
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHLAND TODAY. STRONG CAA
WILL BECOME FAIRLY NEUTRAL THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE NAM INDICATES
THAT AT LEAST A COUPLE SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION IN
NW FLOW TODAY. EACH WILL BE CAPABLE OF GENERATING SOME SNOW
SHOWERS...BUT THE BEST CHANCE SHOULD BE ACROSS THE NORTH IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WITH COLD AIR ALOFT AND SOME SURFACE
HEATING BETWEEN SNOW SHOWERS...THINK SOME OF THE SNOW SHOWERS
COULD BE FAIRLY STRONG THIS AFTERNOON...EVEN BRINGING SOME GUSTY
WINDS WITH THE SNOW SHOWERS.
THE BIGGER STORY FOR TODAY MAY BE THE STRONG WINDS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE BROUGHT
WINDS UP QUITE A BIT. THE RUC SHOWS STRONG WINDS ALOFT MIXING DOWN
TO THE SURFACE. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR DULUTH INDICATE 40-50
KNOTS WORKING ITS WAY TO JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. AS A RESULT...WE
COULD EASILY SEE SOME 20 TO 30 MPH SUSTAINED WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH HIGHER GUSTS AS WELL. WINDS WILL THEN DECREASED OVERNIGHT AS
SKIES CLEAR FROM THE WEST. HAVE DROPPED TEMPS CONSIDERABLY FOR
TONIGHT...CLOSER TO THE MAV GUIDANCE. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW ZERO IN THE NORTH.
FRIDAY SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER...AS WAA PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION.
SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT OF AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY IN THE
NORTH. THINK MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN IN CANADA.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD WILL START OUT DRY AND MILD UNDER WITH A UPPER
RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES DUE TO STRONG SWRLY FLOW
IN THE LOW-LEVELS. HOWEVER THE RIDGE WILL GIVE WAY TO A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE CNTL PLAINS WHICH IS PROGGED
TO LIFT NEWD OVER THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THERE ARE
STILL SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE VARIOUS NWP MODEL
SOLUTIONS...WITH THE NAM/GFS TAKING THE LOW OFF TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST OF OUR CWA...WHILE THE ECMWF/GEM BRING IT RIGHT OVER THE
NORTHLAND. DUE TO THESE DIFFERENCES...WE WILL KEEP POPS IN THE
CHANCE CATEGORY ATTM. PRECIP TYPE SHOULD BE MAINLY RAIN DUE TO THE
WARM AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. BUT IF THE DYNAMIC
LIFT IS STRONG ENOUGH...THERE COULD BE A WINTRY MIX SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY MORNING. AFTER THE LOW MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...AN
UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY PATTERN WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND NEXT WEEK AS SOUTHWEST FLOW DOMINATES ACROSS THE CTRL
PART OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION.../06Z TAF ISSUANCE/
MVFR AND ISOLATED IFR IN CLOUDS AND SNOW IN A FRONTAL BAND SHOULD
MOVE OUT OF THE IWD AND GOGEBIC RANGE AREA LATE TONIGHT. MN NORTH
SHORE AND REST OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...MVFR IN CLOUDS IMPROVING
TO VFR SCATTERED WITH AREAS OF BROKEN CLOUDS BY DAY BREAK THURSDAY
MORNING. THE REST OF NORTHEAST MN...VFR THROUGH EARLY MORNING.
AREAS OF LOW-END VFR IN CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP MIDMORNING ACROSS
COASTAL WI AND NORTH OF ROUTE 2 IN NORTHEAST MN AFTER MIDMORNING
THURSDAY...AND PERSIST TILL LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. VFR CLEAR
BEGINNING THURSDAY EVENING. BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS...GUSTING TO 30
MPH...WILL CONTINUE INTO LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND SUBSIDE
DURING THURSDAY EVENING.
&&
.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 32 7 29 25 / 30 30 0 10
INL 28 -5 32 22 / 40 20 10 10
BRD 34 5 35 29 / 30 10 0 0
HYR 35 5 33 27 / 30 30 0 10
ASX 34 10 30 25 / 30 30 0 10
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM....BERDES
AVIATION...EOM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1143 AM CST THU MAR 8 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 707 AM CST THU MAR 8 2012
HAVE UPDATE SHORT TERM FORECAST TO REFLECT DRYING TREND OVER THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA. ALSO MENTIONED THE CHANCE FOR SNOW OR
SLEET THIS MORNING IN CENTRAL MISSOURI AS THE CURRENT OB AT KSZL
HAS -PL. OTHERWISE...REST OF FORECAST STILL HOLDS.
BRITT
&&
.SHORT TERM...
ISSUED AT 316 AM CST THU MAR 8 2012
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
COLD FRONT HAS MOVED ABOUT HALFWAY THROUGH THE CWA AND IS CURRENTLY
ENTERING THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE ST. LOUIS METRO AREA. SHOWERS
AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT IN A BROAD AREA OF 950-850MB MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. THIS
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS COINCIDENT WITH LARGE SCALE ASCENT FROM
MID-LEVEL CURRENTLY PASSING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST. A SECOND
LARGER AREA OF PRECIPITATION IS MOVING ACROSS WESTERN MISSOURI WHICH
IS BEING GENERATED BY THE LARGE SCALE ASCENT ON THE TAIL END OF THE
TROUGH AND A LITTLE STRONGER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ON THE NOSE OF A
50KT LOW LEVEL JET OVER THE PLAINS. THIS FORCING WILL CONSOLIDATE
THROUGH THE MORNING PER THE RUC AS THE LOW LEVEL JET VEERS WITH
TIME. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP LIKELY OR CATEGORICAL RAIN
CHANCES GOING FOR ABOUT THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA EARLY
THIS MORNING...WITH A GRADUAL DIMINISHING TREND THROUGH THE DAY AS
THE FORCING PUSHES SOUTH AND EAST. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO KEEP AT LEAST A MENTION OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
THIS MORNING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE 850MB COLD FRONT. CAN`T RULE
OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SNOW OR SLEET ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF
THE PRECIPITATION WHERE RUC SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING THE LOW LEVEL
THERMAL PROFILES COOLING NEAR 0C ABOUT THE TIME THAT THE
PRECIPITATION ENDS. THINK THIS WILL BE A SHORT LIVED EVENT AND
MAINLY FOUND WHERE CONVECTION IS MORE CONCENTRATED. TONIGHT SHOULD
BE DRY AS SUBSIDENCE SETS IN BEHIND THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE DAY
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND DECENT
COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT. GFS MOS TEMPERATURES LOOK A
BIT TOO WARM TONIGHT GIVEN THE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS
TURNING LIGHT AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SETTLES INTO THE AREA.
BRITT
&&
.LONG TERM...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST THU MAR 8 2012
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
SFC HIGH BUILDS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING CDFNT ON FRI WITH DRY WX
EXPECTED ON FRI AND MOST OF SAT BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF PCPN DVLPS
ON SAT NIGHT AS AN UPPER LOW OVER AZ/NM BEGINS LIFTING NEWD THROUGH
THE CENTRAL CONUS. MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH HOW AND WHEN
THIS LOW LIFTS NEWD. THE PREVIOUS FOUR RUNS OF THE ECMWF WERE
EVENLY SPLIT BETWEEN KEEPING THE VORT CENTER INTACT /00Z RUNS ON
MARCH 7TH AND 8TH/ AND SPLITTING IT INTO TWO VORT MAXES /12Z RUNS ON
MARCH 6TH AND 7TH...SIMILAR TO WHAT THE GFS HAS BEEN DEPICTING FOR
THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS/. 08/00Z GEM REMAINS SIMILAR TO THE 07/00Z
RUN AND SHOWS THE LOW RETROGRADING TO BAJA CA THEN MOVING THROUGH
MEXICO BEFORE LIFTING THROUGH TX AND INTO NWRN MO. THESE LARGE
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE 3 MODELS APPEAR TO STEM FROM DIFFERENT
HANDLING OF THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE CLOSED LOW AND A SUBTLE
AREA OF ENHANCED VORTICITY THAT SHOULD BE MOVING THROUGH ID/NV AT
08/12Z. DESPITE THE DIFFERENT DETAILS...MODEL SOLUTIONS ALL
SUGGEST ANOTHER ROUND OF PCPN SOMEWHERE BETWEEN SAT NIGHT AND MON
AS THE CLOSED LOW /OR ITS REMNANTS/ FINALLY LIFTS NEWD. WAA SHRA
EXPECTED TO DVLP FIRST FOLLOWED BY AN INCREASE IN PCPN COVERAGE AS
LARGE SCALE LIFT INCREASES WITH THE APPROACHING VORT MAX. MODELS
ARE OFTEN TOO QUICK TO BRING A CLOSED LOW BACK INTO THE PREVAILING
FLOW THEREFORE I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THIS OVERALL FCST
SCENARIO ENDS UP BEING DELAYED BY A DAY OR SO AS THE MODELS CATCH
UP TO THE ATMOSPHERE.
KANOFSKY
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1141 AM CST THU MAR 8 2012
AREAS OF RAIN SHIFTED SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING AS DRY
AIR WITHIN THE GREATS LAKES TROUGH SHIFTED INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI.
THIS HAS ALSO BROUGHT HIGHER CEILINGS TO THE TERMINALS...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING AT ALL THE TERMINALS NOW. EXPECT THE VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 30 HOURS. TERMINALS IN THE
VICINITY OF THE ILLINOIS-MISSOURI BORDER WILL CONTINUE TO EXPECT
GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...THOUGH TOWARDS THE
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS WIND CONDITIONS SHOULD CALM TO AROUND
12 KNOTS AS THE COOL DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE OVERSPREADS THE REGION.
OVERNIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AND THE WIND WILL SETTLE
TO AROUND 5 KNOTS FROM THE NORTHWEST.
SPECIFICS FOR KSTL...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT THE KSTL TERMINAL THROUGH
THE NEXT 30 HOURS. ONLY ITEM TO WATCH FOR WILL BE THE SHIFT IN
WIND TOWARDS THE LATE PERIODS OF THE TAF CYCLE. OVERNIGHT WINDS
WILL CALM TO AROUND 5 KNOTS FROM THE NORTHWEST...BUT DURING THE
MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS FRIDAY EXPECT THE WIND TO PICK UP IN
SPEED AND SHIFT CLOSER TO DUE NORTH.
CUTTER
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ST LOUIS MO
709 AM CST THU MAR 8 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 707 AM CST THU MAR 8 2012
HAVE UPDATE SHORT TERM FORECAST TO REFLECT DRYING TREND OVER THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA. ALSO MENTIONED THE CHANCE FOR SNOW OR
SLEET THIS MORNING IN CENTRAL MISSOURI AS THE CURRENT OB AT KSZL
HAS -PL. OTHERWISE...REST OF FORECAST STILL HOLDS.
BRITT
&&
.SHORT TERM...
ISSUED AT 316 AM CST THU MAR 8 2012
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
COLD FRONT HAS MOVED ABOUT HALFWAY THROUGH THE CWA AND IS CURRENTLY
ENTERING THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE ST. LOUIS METRO AREA. SHOWERS
AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT IN A BROAD AREA OF 950-850MB MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. THIS
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS COINCIDENT WITH LARGE SCALE ASCENT FROM
MID-LEVEL CURRENTLY PASSING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST. A SECOND
LARGER AREA OF PRECIPITATION IS MOVING ACROSS WESTERN MISSOURI WHICH
IS BEING GENERATED BY THE LARGE SCALE ASCENT ON THE TAIL END OF THE
TROUGH AND A LITTLE STRONGER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ON THE NOSE OF A
50KT LOW LEVEL JET OVER THE PLAINS. THIS FORCING WILL CONSOLIDATE
THROUGH THE MORNING PER THE RUC AS THE LOW LEVEL JET VEERS WITH
TIME. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP LIKELY OR CATEGORICAL RAIN
CHANCES GOING FOR ABOUT THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA EARLY
THIS MORNING...WITH A GRADUAL DIMINISHING TREND THROUGH THE DAY AS
THE FORCING PUSHES SOUTH AND EAST. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO KEEP AT LEAST A MENTION OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
THIS MORNING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE 850MB COLD FRONT. CAN`T RULE
OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SNOW OR SLEET ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF
THE PRECIPITATION WHERE RUC SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING THE LOW LEVEL
THERMAL PROFILES COOLING NEAR 0C ABOUT THE TIME THAT THE
PRECIPITATION ENDS. THINK THIS WILL BE A SHORT LIVED EVENT AND
MAINLY FOUND WHERE CONVECTION IS MORE CONCENTRATED. TONIGHT SHOULD
BE DRY AS SUBSIDENCE SETS IN BEHIND THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE DAY
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND DECENT
COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT. GFS MOS TEMPERATURES LOOK A
BIT TOO WARM TONIGHT GIVEN THE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS
TURNING LIGHT AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SETTLES INTO THE AREA.
BRITT
&&
.LONG TERM...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST THU MAR 8 2012
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
SFC HIGH BUILDS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING CDFNT ON FRI WITH DRY WX
EXPECTED ON FRI AND MOST OF SAT BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF PCPN DVLPS
ON SAT NIGHT AS AN UPPER LOW OVER AZ/NM BEGINS LIFTING NEWD THROUGH
THE CENTRAL CONUS. MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH HOW AND WHEN
THIS LOW LIFTS NEWD. THE PREVIOUS FOUR RUNS OF THE ECMWF WERE
EVENLY SPLIT BETWEEN KEEPING THE VORT CENTER INTACT /00Z RUNS ON
MARCH 7TH AND 8TH/ AND SPLITTING IT INTO TWO VORT MAXES /12Z RUNS ON
MARCH 6TH AND 7TH...SIMILAR TO WHAT THE GFS HAS BEEN DEPICTING FOR
THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS/. 08/00Z GEM REMAINS SIMILAR TO THE 07/00Z
RUN AND SHOWS THE LOW RETROGRADING TO BAJA CA THEN MOVING THROUGH
MEXICO BEFORE LIFTING THROUGH TX AND INTO NWRN MO. THESE LARGE
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE 3 MODELS APPEAR TO STEM FROM DIFFERENT
HANDLING OF THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE CLOSED LOW AND A SUBTLE
AREA OF ENHANCED VORTICITY THAT SHOULD BE MOVING THROUGH ID/NV AT
08/12Z. DESPITE THE DIFFERENT DETAILS...MODEL SOLUTIONS ALL
SUGGEST ANOTHER ROUND OF PCPN SOMEWHERE BETWEEN SAT NIGHT AND MON
AS THE CLOSED LOW /OR ITS REMNANTS/ FINALLY LIFTS NEWD. WAA SHRA
EXPECTED TO DVLP FIRST FOLLOWED BY AN INCREASE IN PCPN COVERAGE AS
LARGE SCALE LIFT INCREASES WITH THE APPROACHING VORT MAX. MODELS
ARE OFTEN TOO QUICK TO BRING A CLOSED LOW BACK INTO THE PREVAILING
FLOW THEREFORE I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THIS OVERALL FCST
SCENARIO ENDS UP BEING DELAYED BY A DAY OR SO AS THE MODELS CATCH
UP TO THE ATMOSPHERE.
KANOFSKY
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 550 AM CST THU MAR 8 2012
AREA OF RAIN WITH MAINLY MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL AFFECT THE TAF SITES
THIS MORNING...THOUGH IT WILL DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
WITH TIME. LIGHTNING HAS DIMINISHED IN THE PAST HOUR WITH THIS
AREA OF PRECIPITATION...SO HAVE NO MORE THAN A CB TO REFLECT THIS
TREND. THERE WAS SOME REPORTS EARLIER OF SNOW AND SLEET OVER
WESTERN MO...BUT THINK PRECIPITATION WILL BE ENDING ABOUT THE SAME
TIME THAT IT WILL BE GETTING COLD ENOUGH FOR THE CHANGEOVER SO
WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY MENTION IN THE UIN TAF FOR NOW. PRECIPITATION
HAS BEEN INCREASING IN AREAL COVERAGE OVER ERN KANSAS...BUT THINK
THIS MAY BE A TEMPORARY TREND...SO WILL HOLD ON TO PRECIPITATION
AT COU AND STL METRO AREA TAF SITES UNTIL 14-16Z. THEREAFTER...
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH IMPROVING CIGS AND NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
BRING DRIER AIR INTO THE LOW LEVELS.
SPECIFICS FOR KSTL...PRECIPITATION ACROSS MO AND ERN KANSAS IS
MOVING RAPIDLY EASTWARD AND CURRENTLY THINK IT WILL END BY MID
MORNING AT THE TERMINAL. UNTIL THEN...THINK THAT CIGS WILL VARY
FROM HIGH IFR TO MVFR. BY LATE MORNING...NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
WILL BRING DRIER AIR INTO THE LOW LEVELS WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR VFR
FLIGHT CONDITIONS.
BRITT
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
551 AM CST THU MAR 8 2012
.SHORT TERM...
ISSUED AT 316 AM CST THU MAR 8 2012
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
COLD FRONT HAS MOVED ABOUT HALFWAY THROUGH THE CWA AND IS CURRENTLY
ENTERING THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE ST. LOUIS METRO AREA. SHOWERS
AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT IN A BROAD AREA OF 950-850MB MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. THIS
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS COINCIDENT WITH LARGE SCALE ASCENT FROM
MID-LEVEL CURRENTLY PASSING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST. A SECOND
LARGER AREA OF PRECIPITATION IS MOVING ACROSS WESTERN MISSOURI WHICH
IS BEING GENERATED BY THE LARGE SCALE ASCENT ON THE TAIL END OF THE
TROUGH AND A LITTLE STRONGER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ON THE NOSE OF A
50KT LOW LEVEL JET OVER THE PLAINS. THIS FORCING WILL CONSOLIDATE
THROUGH THE MORNING PER THE RUC AS THE LOW LEVEL JET VEERS WITH
TIME. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP LIKELY OR CATEGORICAL RAIN
CHANCES GOING FOR ABOUT THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA EARLY
THIS MORNING...WITH A GRADUAL DIMINISHING TREND THROUGH THE DAY AS
THE FORCING PUSHES SOUTH AND EAST. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO KEEP AT LEAST A MENTION OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
THIS MORNING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE 850MB COLD FRONT. CAN`T RULE
OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SNOW OR SLEET ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF
THE PRECIPITATION WHERE RUC SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING THE LOW LEVEL
THERMAL PROFILES COOLING NEAR 0C ABOUT THE TIME THAT THE
PRECIPITATION ENDS. THINK THIS WILL BE A SHORT LIVED EVENT AND
MAINLY FOUND WHERE CONVECTION IS MORE CONCENTRATED. TONIGHT SHOULD
BE DRY AS SUBSIDENCE SETS IN BEHIND THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE DAY
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND DECENT
COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT. GFS MOS TEMPERATURES LOOK A
BIT TOO WARM TONIGHT GIVEN THE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS
TURNING LIGHT AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SETTLES INTO THE AREA.
BRITT
&&
.LONG TERM...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST THU MAR 8 2012
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
SFC HIGH BUILDS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING CDFNT ON FRI WITH DRY WX
EXPECTED ON FRI AND MOST OF SAT BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF PCPN DVLPS
ON SAT NIGHT AS AN UPPER LOW OVER AZ/NM BEGINS LIFTING NEWD THROUGH
THE CENTRAL CONUS. MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH HOW AND WHEN
THIS LOW LIFTS NEWD. THE PREVIOUS FOUR RUNS OF THE ECMWF WERE
EVENLY SPLIT BETWEEN KEEPING THE VORT CENTER INTACT /00Z RUNS ON
MARCH 7TH AND 8TH/ AND SPLITTING IT INTO TWO VORT MAXES /12Z RUNS ON
MARCH 6TH AND 7TH...SIMILAR TO WHAT THE GFS HAS BEEN DEPICTING FOR
THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS/. 08/00Z GEM REMAINS SIMILAR TO THE 07/00Z
RUN AND SHOWS THE LOW RETROGRADING TO BAJA CA THEN MOVING THROUGH
MEXICO BEFORE LIFTING THROUGH TX AND INTO NWRN MO. THESE LARGE
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE 3 MODELS APPEAR TO STEM FROM DIFFERENT
HANDLING OF THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE CLOSED LOW AND A SUBTLE
AREA OF ENHANCED VORTICITY THAT SHOULD BE MOVING THROUGH ID/NV AT
08/12Z. DESPITE THE DIFFERENT DETAILS...MODEL SOLUTIONS ALL
SUGGEST ANOTHER ROUND OF PCPN SOMEWHERE BETWEEN SAT NIGHT AND MON
AS THE CLOSED LOW /OR ITS REMNANTS/ FINALLY LIFTS NEWD. WAA SHRA
EXPECTED TO DVLP FIRST FOLLOWED BY AN INCREASE IN PCPN COVERAGE AS
LARGE SCALE LIFT INCREASES WITH THE APPROACHING VORT MAX. MODELS
ARE OFTEN TOO QUICK TO BRING A CLOSED LOW BACK INTO THE PREVAILING
FLOW THEREFORE I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THIS OVERALL FCST
SCENARIO ENDS UP BEING DELAYED BY A DAY OR SO AS THE MODELS CATCH
UP TO THE ATMOSPHERE.
KANOFSKY
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 550 AM CST THU MAR 8 2012
AREA OF RAIN WITH MAINLY MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL AFFECT THE TAF SITES
THIS MORNING...THOUGH IT WILL DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
WITH TIME. LIGHTNING HAS DIMINISHED IN THE PAST HOUR WITH THIS
AREA OF PRECIPITATION...SO HAVE NO MORE THAN A CB TO REFLECT THIS
TREND. THERE WAS SOME REPORTS EARLIER OF SNOW AND SLEET OVER
WESTERN MO...BUT THINK PRECIPITATION WILL BE ENDING ABOUT THE SAME
TIME THAT IT WILL BE GETTING COLD ENOUGH FOR THE CHANGEOVER SO
WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY MENTION IN THE UIN TAF FOR NOW. PRECIPITATION
HAS BEEN INCREASING IN AREAL COVERAGE OVER ERN KANSAS...BUT THINK
THIS MAY BE A TEMPORARY TREND...SO WILL HOLD ON TO PRECIPITATION
AT COU AND STL METRO AREA TAF SITES UNTIL 14-16Z. THEREAFTER...
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH IMPROVING CIGS AND NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
BRING DRIER AIR INTO THE LOW LEVELS.
SPECIFICS FOR KSTL...PRECIPITATION ACROSS MO AND ERN KANSAS IS
MOVING RAPIDLY EASTWARD AND CURRENTLY THINK IT WILL END BY MID
MORNING AT THE TERMINAL. UNTIL THEN...THINK THAT CIGS WILL VARY
FROM HIGH IFR TO MVFR. BY LATE MORNING...NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
WILL BRING DRIER AIR INTO THE LOW LEVELS WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR VFR
FLIGHT CONDITIONS.
BRITT
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
342 AM CST THU MAR 8 2012
.DISCUSSION...
Showers with embedded thunderstorm early this morning are continuing
to develop southwest of the area back into south central Kansas and
back into the OK and TX Panhandles in an area of mid level
frontogenetical forcing. These showers and thunderstorms have been
lifting northeastward into the forecast area where even weak
low-topped convection has been able to produce small hail with a
freezing level at 2kft.
These showers and thunderstorms will continue to be shunted to the
south this morning as a upper level trough moves from the Upper
Midwest into the Great Lakes region forcing the surface cold front,
which was the focus of this precipitation, further south and east
into the Ohio and Lower Mississippi River Valleys. Showers and
perhaps a isolated thunderstorms will continue this morning
occasionally mixing with sleet and snow perhaps evening changing
over to all snow, mainly along and south of the Missouri River and
will sink through the southern portion of the CWA by this afternoon.
As this system sinks south of the area high pressure will build into
the region from the Northern Plains tonight. This will allow for
calm winds and clear skies providing for good radiational cooling
and consequently dropped temperatures a degree or two for tonight.
High pressure will remain in control over the area on the day on
Saturday before shifting eastward into the Missouri River Valley on
Saturday night. It is then we turn our attention to our next system
of interest. This system is in the form of a closed low across the
southwestern CONUS. Models are in good agreement that this system
will pull out of the Southwest into the Southern Plains on Saturday
night. Out ahead of the system Gulf moisture will be drawn northward
under a good WAA regime. Model QPF fields spread showers across the
area by Saturday night which continues into Sunday. Models differ on
the timing the upper level system rotates through the area ranging
anywhere from the faster GFS which brings it through on Sunday night
to the slower GEM which brings it through Monday night so did not
change much to the initialization to capture the myriad of timing
scenarios. One caveat of interest in the model analysis is that the
EC as it brings the system out of the Southwest into the Plains it
open up the cut off low and begins to take on a negative tilt. If,
this scenario does come to fruition it will provide for more
unstable conditions than the other model solutions and thunderstorms
possibly severe will be possible. However since the EC is the only
model advertising this solution have opted to keep precipitation
wording to just rain at the moment.
Otherwise, for the beginning of the work week expect well above
average conditions with downsloping westerly flow aloft and southern
flow at the surface. Highs on Monday will be in the mid to upper 60s
giving way to lower 70s on Tuesday and Wednesday.
73
&&
.AVIATION...
For the 06Z TAFs...Have made significant changes to the first 6
hours of the TAFs to reflect the rapid development of elevated
convection from southwest into north central KS since 04z. Latest
short range model trends from the HRRR, RUC and NAM spread this
convective activity northeastward and into the terminals shortly
after midnight. A combination of isentropic ascent on the 300K
surface, the right entrance region of a departing upper level jet
streak and layered frontogenesis are working in concert to aid the
convective development. Am expecting to see the rain and clod cover
shift south after sunrise Thursday with VFR conditions quickly
moving into the terminals.
While thunder was not put into the forecast will need to monitor
evolution of upstream convection and make any necessary short term
adjustments.
MJ
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO EAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
332 AM CST THU MAR 8 2012
.SHORT TERM...
ISSUED AT 316 AM CST THU MAR 8 2012
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
COLD FRONT HAS MOVED ABOUT HALFWAY THROUGH THE CWA AND IS CURRENTLY
ENTERING THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE ST. LOUIS METRO AREA. SHOWERS
AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT IN A BROAD AREA OF 950-850MB MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. THIS
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS COINCIDENT WITH LARGE SCALE ASCENT FROM
MID-LEVEL CURRENTLY PASSING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST. A SECOND
LARGER AREA OF PRECIPITATION IS MOVING ACROSS WESTERN MISSOURI WHICH
IS BEING GENERATED BY THE LARGE SCALE ASCENT ON THE TAIL END OF THE
TROUGH AND A LITTLE STRONGER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ON THE NOSE OF A
50KT LOW LEVEL JET OVER THE PLAINS. THIS FORCING WILL CONSOLIDATE
THROUGH THE MORNING PER THE RUC AS THE LOW LEVEL JET VEERS WITH
TIME. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP LIKELY OR CATEGORICAL RAIN
CHANCES GOING FOR ABOUT THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA EARLY
THIS MORNING...WITH A GRADUAL DIMINISHING TREND THROUGH THE DAY AS
THE FORCING PUSHES SOUTH AND EAST. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO KEEP AT LEAST A MENTION OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
THIS MORNING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE 850MB COLD FRONT. CAN`T RULE
OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SNOW OR SLEET ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF
THE PRECIPITATION WHERE RUC SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING THE LOW LEVEL
THERMAL PROFILES COOLING NEAR 0C ABOUT THE TIME THAT THE
PRECIPITATION ENDS. THINK THIS WILL BE A SHORT LIVED EVENT AND
MAINLY FOUND WHERE CONVECTION IS MORE CONCENTRATED. TONIGHT SHOULD
BE DRY AS SUBSIDENCE SETS IN BEHIND THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE DAY
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND DECENT
COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT. GFS MOS TEMPERATURES LOOK A
BIT TOO WARM TONIGHT GIVEN THE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS
TURNING LIGHT AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SETTLES INTO THE AREA.
BRITT
&&
.LONG TERM...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST THU MAR 8 2012
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
SFC HIGH BUILDS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING CDFNT ON FRI WITH DRY WX
EXPECTED ON FRI AND MOST OF SAT BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF PCPN DVLPS
ON SAT NIGHT AS AN UPPER LOW OVER AZ/NM BEGINS LIFTING NEWD THROUGH
THE CENTRAL CONUS. MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH HOW AND WHEN
THIS LOW LIFTS NEWD. THE PREVIOUS FOUR RUNS OF THE ECMWF WERE
EVENLY SPLIT BETWEEN KEEPING THE VORT CENTER INTACT /00Z RUNS ON
MARCH 7TH AND 8TH/ AND SPLITTING IT INTO TWO VORT MAXES /12Z RUNS ON
MARCH 6TH AND 7TH...SIMILAR TO WHAT THE GFS HAS BEEN DEPICTING FOR
THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS/. 08/00Z GEM REMAINS SIMILAR TO THE 07/00Z
RUN AND SHOWS THE LOW RETROGRADING TO BAJA CA THEN MOVING THROUGH
MEXICO BEFORE LIFTING THROUGH TX AND INTO NWRN MO. THESE LARGE
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE 3 MODELS APPEAR TO STEM FROM DIFFERENT
HANDLING OF THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE CLOSED LOW AND A SUBTLE
AREA OF ENHANCED VORTICITY THAT SHOULD BE MOVING THROUGH ID/NV AT
08/12Z. DESPITE THE DIFFERENT DETAILS...MODEL SOLUTIONS ALL
SUGGEST ANOTHER ROUND OF PCPN SOMEWHERE BETWEEN SAT NIGHT AND MON
AS THE CLOSED LOW /OR ITS REMNANTS/ FINALLY LIFTS NEWD. WAA SHRA
EXPECTED TO DVLP FIRST FOLLOWED BY AN INCREASE IN PCPN COVERAGE AS
LARGE SCALE LIFT INCREASES WITH THE APPROACHING VORT MAX. MODELS
ARE OFTEN TOO QUICK TO BRING A CLOSED LOW BACK INTO THE PREVAILING
FLOW THEREFORE I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THIS OVERALL FCST
SCENARIO ENDS UP BEING DELAYED BY A DAY OR SO AS THE MODELS CATCH
UP TO THE ATMOSPHERE.
KANOFSKY
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1057 PM CST WED MAR 7 2012
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST AT A STEADY PACE AND JUST MOVED
THROUGH UIN OVER THE LAST 30 MINUTES. LEADING EDGE OF NARROW BAND
OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DENOTES FRONT AND EXTRAPOLATION
OF THIS ECHO MASS INDICATES IT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH COU BETWEEN
06-07Z. LONGER EXTRAPOLATION OF RADAR IMAGERY...AS WELL AS SURFACE
COLD FRONTAL POSITIONS DURING THE EVENING...STILL INDICATE
ARRIVAL OF COLD FRONT IN STL AREA 10-11Z TIME FRAME. THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE BEEN INCREASING IN COVERAGE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS IN THE
BEST INSTABILITY AXIS OVER WESTERN MISSOURI...AND BASED ON 00Z
GUIDANCE THAT SUGGESTS INSTABILITY WILL PERSIST INTO THE PREDAWN
HOURS THINK THAT THIS NARROW LINE OF STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO HOLD
TOGETHER AS IT WORKS EAST INTO EASTERN MO AND THE STL AREA. POST
FRONTAL PRECIP HAS EXPANDED OVER IA BUT SO FAR AS REMAINED VERY
LIMITED OVER MO...BUT THINK THIS WILL BE CHANGING OVERNIGHT AS
SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO REGION AND ENHANCES LARGE SCALE UVV IN THE
COLDER AIR. STILL LOOKS LIKE FROPA WILL BRING MVFR CIGS TO EACH
TAF LOCATION...AND WHILE WE`RE NOT SEEING ANY WIDESPREAD IFR
BEHIND THE FRONT ATTM WE`LL CERTAINLY HAVE TO CAREFULLY MONITOR
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT DUE TO THIS THREAT.
SPECIFICS FOR KSTL...
COLD FRONT STILL EXPECTED TO ARRIVE AROUND 10Z WITH A NARROW LINE
OF THUNDERSTORMS. IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT CONDITIONS SHOULD
QUICKLY DROP TO MVFR WITH CIGS BTWN 1-3 KFT AND VSBYS 3-5SM IN
LIGHT RAIN/FOG. 00Z DATA SUPPORTS EARLIER THINKING THAT DRIER AIR
WELL BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE CONDITIONS DURING
THE LATE MORNING...WITH MVFR CIGS MOVING OUT OF THE AREA AROUND
MIDDAY.
TRUETT
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
319 AM CST THU MAR 8 2012
.SHORT TERM...
ISSUED AT 316 AM CST THU MAR 8 2012
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
COLD FRONT HAS MOVED ABOUT HALFWAY THROUGH THE CWA AND IS CURRENTLY
ENTERING THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE ST. LOUIS METRO AREA. SHOWERS
AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT IN A BROAD AREA OF 950-850MB MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. THIS
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS COINCIDENT WITH LARGE SCALE ASCENT FROM
MID-LEVEL CURRENTLY PASSING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST. A SECOND
LARGER AREA OF PRECIPITATION IS MOVING ACROSS WESTERN MISSOURI WHICH
IS BEING GENERATED BY THE LARGE SCALE ASCENT ON THE TAIL END OF THE
TROUGH AND A LITTLE STRONGER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ON THE NOSE OF A
50KT LOW LEVEL JET OVER THE PLAINS. THIS FORCING WILL CONSOLIDATE
THROUGH THE MORNING PER THE RUC AS THE LOW LEVEL JET VEERS WITH
TIME. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP LIKELY OR CATEGORICAL RAIN
CHANCES GOING FOR ABOUT THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA EARLY
THIS MORNING...WITH A GRADUAL DIMINISHING TREND THROUGH THE DAY AS
THE FORCING PUSHES SOUTH AND EAST. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO KEEP AT LEAST A MENTION OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
THIS MORNING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE 850MB COLD FRONT. CAN`T RULE
OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SNOW OR SLEET ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF
THE PRECIPITATION WHERE RUC SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING THE LOW LEVEL
THERMAL PROFILES COOLING NEAR 0C ABOUT THE TIME THAT THE
PRECIPITATION ENDS. THINK THIS WILL BE A SHORT LIVED EVENT AND
MAINLY FOUND WHERE CONVECTION IS MORE CONCENTRATED. TONIGHT SHOULD
BE DRY AS SUBSIDENCE SETS IN BEHIND THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE DAY
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND DECENT
COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT. GFS MOS TEMPERATURES LOOK A
BIT TOO WARM TONIGHT GIVEN THE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS
TURNING LIGHT AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SETTLES INTO THE AREA.
BRITT
&&
.LONG TERM...
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST WED MAR 7 2012
(THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
COLD FRONT SHOULD MAKE IT TO THE STL METRO AREA BY 12Z THU WITH A
BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE
FRONT. THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN ON THU WILL BE S AND E OF STL AS THE
FRONT CONTINUES TO DROP SEWD THROUGH THE AREA. A SURFACE RIDGE
WILL BUILD SEWD INTO OUR AREA BEHIND THE FRONT WITH COLDER AND
DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION. WITH RELATIVELY STRONG CAA
BEHIND THE SFC/850 MB FRONT AREAS WHICH REMAIN CLOUDY ON THU MAY
SEE LITTLE IF ANY DIURNAL RISE IN TEMPERATURES. MOST OF THIS RAIN
SHOULD PUSH SOUTH OF OUR AREA BY THU EVNG WITH CLEARING FROM N-NW
TO S-SE AND COLDER TEMPERATURES THU NGT. TRANQUIL...DRY WEATHER WITH
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR FRI AND FRI NGT...THEN INCREASING
CLOUDINESS ON SAT AS A SLOW MOVING CLOSED...UPPER LEVEL LOW NOW
OVER NRN AZ MOVES THROUGH THE PLAINS AND APPROACHES MO. THE NAM
MODEL IS A LITTLE QUICKER BRINGING SHOWERS INTO OUR AREA THIS
WEEKEND AHEAD OF THIS UPPER LOW. FOR NOW WILL FOLLOW CLOSER TO THE
GFS AND ECMWF MODELS SOLUTION WHICH BRING MOST OF THE RAIN
THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA SAT NGT AND SUN. MOST OF THE RAIN SHOULD
SHIFT E OF OUR AREA BY SUN NGT...ALTHOUGH COULD NOT RULE OUT SOME
LIGHT RAIN MAINLY OVER W CNTRL IL UNDERNEATH OR NEAR THE UPPER
LOW CENTER. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN THE RAIN BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
MODELS ARE BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF RAIN...MAINLY TO THE SRN AND
ERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA MON AFTN AND MON NGT AHEAD OF A SRN
STREAM UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WILL MOVE NEWD INTO SERN MO BY MON
EVNG. ALTHOUGH THE GFS MODEL TRIES TO BRING A WEAK COLD FRONT
SEWD INTO OUR AREA TUE NGT...THE ECMWF MODEL IS WARMER WITH
CONTINUING S-SWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW BRINGING THE 16 DEGREE C 850 MB
ISOTHERM NEWD INTO MO ON WED WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S
LIKELY IF THIS SCENERIO VERIFIES.
GKS
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1057 PM CST WED MAR 7 2012
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST AT A STEADY PACE AND JUST MOVED
THROUGH UIN OVER THE LAST 30 MINUTES. LEADING EDGE OF NARROW BAND
OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DENOTES FRONT AND EXTRAPOLATION
OF THIS ECHO MASS INDICATES IT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH COU BETWEEN
06-07Z. LONGER EXTRAPOLATION OF RADAR IMAGERY...AS WELL AS SURFACE
COLD FRONTAL POSITIONS DURING THE EVENING...STILL INDICATE
ARRIVAL OF COLD FRONT IN STL AREA 10-11Z TIME FRAME. THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE BEEN INCREASING IN COVERAGE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS IN THE
BEST INSTABILITY AXIS OVER WESTERN MISSOURI...AND BASED ON 00Z
GUIDANCE THAT SUGGESTS INSTABILITY WILL PERSIST INTO THE PREDAWN
HOURS THINK THAT THIS NARROW LINE OF STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO HOLD
TOGETHER AS IT WORKS EAST INTO EASTERN MO AND THE STL AREA. POST
FRONTAL PRECIP HAS EXPANDED OVER IA BUT SO FAR AS REMAINED VERY
LIMITED OVER MO...BUT THINK THIS WILL BE CHANGING OVERNIGHT AS
SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO REGION AND ENHANCES LARGE SCALE UVV IN THE
COLDER AIR. STILL LOOKS LIKE FROPA WILL BRING MVFR CIGS TO EACH
TAF LOCATION...AND WHILE WE`RE NOT SEEING ANY WIDESPREAD IFR
BEHIND THE FRONT ATTM WE`LL CERTAINLY HAVE TO CAREFULLY MONITOR
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT DUE TO THIS THREAT.
SPECIFICS FOR KSTL...
COLD FRONT STILL EXPECTED TO ARRIVE AROUND 10Z WITH A NARROW LINE
OF THUNDERSTORMS. IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT CONDITIONS SHOULD
QUICKLY DROP TO MVFR WITH CIGS BTWN 1-3 KFT AND VSBYS 3-5SM IN
LIGHT RAIN/FOG. 00Z DATA SUPPORTS EARLIER THINKING THAT DRIER AIR
WELL BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE CONDITIONS DURING
THE LATE MORNING...WITH MVFR CIGS MOVING OUT OF THE AREA AROUND
MIDDAY.
TRUETT
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1154 PM CST WED MAR 7 2012
...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.DISCUSSION...
Convection finally got going along the cold front. However, the
activity is rather narrow, but intense. Not expecting any severe.
Cold front with the attendant convection will spread gradually east
across the sern 1/4 of the CWA. In the post frontal regime a number
of short range models including the latest runs from the HRRR, RUC
and NAM all blossom convection across south central into east
central KS after 06z, spreading into west central MO and the
southern half of the CWA after 09z. This appears to be a reflection
of the right rear entrance region of the 250mb jet segment
interacting with layered frontogenesis from 850mb to 650mb. Given
the model consensus on spreading rain further north have increased
and adjusted pops further north after midnight.
MJ
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
/342 PM CST Wed Mar 7 2012/
An advancing cold front pushed into far northwest Missouri, and
adjacent areas of extreme northeast Kansas, early this afternoon.
This has brought some relief to those areas from the strong and
gusty winds that persisted overnight and into today. Cloud cover in
advance of the front has decreased the wind gusts farther south and
east also, so while there is no grantee that any break in the clouds
would not result in quick round of momentum transfer in the boundary
layer, it looks unlikely at this time. So, have opted to drop the
remainder of the wind advisory from west central Kansas through
central Missouri under a a little early. After the frontal passage
this evening, winds will turn to the northwest, remaining a bit gusty
through the overnight hours into Thursday.
Focusing on the front for tonight, radar returns and occasional
surface observations indicate that showers are beginning to develop
along and just behind it, across northwest Missouri and eastern
Kansas. This expected activity will continue to ramp up as we move
through the later afternoon and evening hours as modest isentropic
assent is supplemented, and then supplanted, with moderate to strong
frontogenic forcing in the post frontal environment. This, coupled
with some moderate lapse rates that will still be present aloft as
the front shifts through, should allow some embedded thunderstorm
activity just behind the front this evening. Severe thunderstorm
activity is not expected as there looks to be insufficient
instability to fuel anything more than your average embedded
thunderstorm.
Showers, and some isolated thunder, may still be lingering across
areas from east central Kansas into central Missouri Thursday morning
and into the afternoon hours. With the passage of the cold front
tonight, a modest dome of cool air will slide across the Lower
Missouri River Valley Thursday into Friday, knocking our temperatures
back down from the mid spring like temperatures we have enjoyed over
the past few days. Thursday will be the coolest day with highs in the
40s to near 50, with Friday warming into the 50s across the whole
forecast areas.
Cutter
Medium Range (Saturday-Tuesday)...
Model consistency continues to be the primary forecast concern as we
head through the initial stages of the medium range. Some progress
has been made with GFS/ECMWF solutions in the depth of upper low
trapped under broad ridging as it crosses the region. However the
exact track of this low remains in doubt and will have significant
implications on local conditions especially on Sunday. GEFS signals
this disagreement well with two clusters of solutions. One clusters
the more westerly ECMWF and the other cluster favors the progressive
easterly solution of the GFS. Nevertheless, it does appear that
broad warm advection will spread northward and into the area late
Saturday and into Sunday. Currently favored areas for more
widespread rain are focused on the eastern half of Missouri, with
uncertainty on positioning of dry slot leading to lower certainty in
western zones. Given the degree of warm advection, wouldn`t be
surprised to see a bit of thunder, but confidence too low to
introduce at this time. Have not trimmed much off the populated POPs
for Sunday night given uncertainty of where cold core of upper low
may pass.
Heading into next week, rising mid-level heights will give credence
to another substantial warm up looks in store for the area as we
move into Tuesday and Wednesday. Southwesterly low level flow
combined with 850mb temps +12 to +16 would feature lower to middle
70s. Have bumped overnight lows and max temps. Just food for
thought beyond the medium range as we look for additional chances of
snow this winter, continual NAEFS ensemble runs as well as guidance
from CPC place very high probabilities of above normal temperatures
continuing through the 8-14 day period with a continuation of
westerly to southwesterly flow aloft.
Dux
&&
.AVIATION...
For the 06Z TAFs...Have made significant changes to the first 6
hours of the TAFs to reflect the rapid development of elevated
convection from southwest into north central KS since 04z. Latest
short range model trends from the HRRR, RUC and NAM spread this
convective activity northeastward and into the terminals shortly
after midnight. A combination of isentropic ascent on the 300K
surface, the right entrance region of a departing upper level jet
streak and layered frontogenesis are working in concert to aid the
convective development. Am expecting to see the rain and clod cover
shift south after sunrise Thursday with VFR conditions quickly
moving into the terminals.
While thunder was not put into the forecast will need to monitor
evolution of upstream convection and make any necessary short term
adjustments.
MJ
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO EAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1148 PM CST WED MAR 7 2012
.UPDATE...RADAR DATA FROM KUEX...AS WELL AS MULTIPLE SITES ACROSS
KANSAS...INDICATE ELEVATED CONVECTION RAPIDLY SPREADING IN AERIAL
COVERAGE ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS. RUC ANALYSIS AND LAPS
DATA INDICATE AN AXIS OF ENHANCED THERMAL ADVECTION FROM JUST
ABOVE 850MB TO NEAR 700MB...WITH RESULTANT ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND
SATURATION EVIDENT ALONG THE 305K SURFACE. PROXIMITY
SOUNDINGS...ALSO FROM RUC ANALYSIS AND LAPS DATA...ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
CWA AND POINTS FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS INDICATE THIS
CONVECTION IS ROOTED TO AROUND 700MB...WHERE MINIMAL CIN IS
EVIDENT AND CAPE VALUES AS HIGH AS 300J/KG ALSO EXIST. SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS AXIS OF MID LEVEL THERMAL ADVECTION WILL
CONTINUE MOVING EAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THUS CARRYING
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WITH IT INTO EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN
MISSOURI. THAT BEING SAID...BASED ON THE CURRENT TRAJECTORIES OF
ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS...THERE IS A CHANCE SOME
OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL CLIP EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR
CWA. WENT AHEAD AND UPDATED THE FORECAST AND HWO TO INCLUDE
THUNDER MENTION FOR PORTIONS OF OSBORNE AND MITCHELL COUNTIES AS A
RESULT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1044 PM CST WED MAR 7 2012/
AVIATION...06Z TAF. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. DRY AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT SOUTH TONIGHT AND SKIES ARE
GRADUALLY CLEARING. WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT TONIGHT...BUT WILL
INCREASE FM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY MORNING...BEFORE TRANSITIONING
WESTERLY AND DECREASING AGAIN THURS EVENING.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CST WED MAR 7 2012/
SHORT TERM...THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT
BROUGHT BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS AND MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES TO THE
REGION TODAY IS PRESENTLY DRAPED FROM SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA TO THE
PANHANDLE OF OKLAHOMA/TEXAS. WHILE SOME MODERATE INSTABILITY AND
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT IS EVIDENT ALONG AND JUST AHEAD
OF THIS BOUNDARY...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THE
BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY SINK SOUTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT... DIMINISHING
ANY CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. AS
A RESULT...WENT AHEAD AND TRIMMED BACK ANY MENTION OF PRECIP
OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONALLY....WITH SLOWLY CLEARING SKIES APPROACHING
FROM THE NORTHWEST AND DIMINISHING WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS AN
AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TRANSITIONS CLOSER TOWARDS THE LOCAL
AREA FROM THE HIGH PLAINS...WENT AHEAD AND TWEAKED OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT...ALBEIT THEY REMAIN RIGHT AROUND
CLIMATOLOGY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
FOR THURSDAY...LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE PREVALENT ACROSS THE
REGION AS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES IN ACROSS THE STATE OF NEBRASKA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
CLEARING SKIES AS A GENERALLY PLEASANT DAY ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING A FEW DEGREES FROM
THIS AFTERNOONS READINGS...WITH EXPECTED HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER 50S MOST LOCATIONS...WHICH REMAINS APPROXIMATELY 5 DEGREES
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
LONG TERM...00Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. PRIMARY FORECAST
CONCERNS ARE WITH TEMPERATURES...AND WEEKEND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES.
MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...AND THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY. UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN SHOWS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION...SITTING
BETWEEN A TROUGH AXIS SWINGING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST...AND
A SLOW MOVING CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS OVER NEW
MEXICO. THROUGH THE DAYTIME ON FRIDAY AND EVEN FRIDAY NIGHT...NOT A
LOW OF PROGRESS IS MADE BY THE LOW...WITH MODELS REMAINING IN PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A SECOND LOW DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTHWEST /NRN
BAJA/ OF THE ORIGINAL...WHICH BY 12Z SATURDAY IS NEAR THE PANHANDLES
OF TX/OK. EVEN WITH THIS FIRST LOW CREEPING CLOSER TO THE
CWA...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFF TO THE SOUTH OF THE
CWA. NOT A LOT OF SWEEPING CHANGES LOOKING AT THE SURFACE PATTERN
EITHER...WHICH STARTS THE PERIOD OFF WITH THE CWA UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A HIGH PRESSURE AXIS EXTENDING FROM NM...AND LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS. THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
BE A PRIMARY PLAYER ACROSS THE CWA...WITH THE MAIN AXIS DRAPED
ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OVER
THE SRN PLAINS AND ANOTHER DRIFTING SE INTO THE GREAT
LAKES/MIDWEST. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO MORE SOUTHERLY
FLOW...WITH LIGHTER SPEEDS ACROSS THE SRN CWA AND GUSTIER WINDS TO
ACROSS THE NORTH. ALSO NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF A CHANGE IN AIRMASS
COMPARED TO THURSDAY...AND FORECAST HIGHS ARE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES
IN THE MID 50S.
A LITTLE BIT MORE UNCERTAINTY ARISES AS WE GET INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...WHICH WILL BE INFLUENCED BY THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SATURDAY...AGAIN NOT
MUCH PROGRESS IS MADE LOOKING AT THE MODELS...WITH SOLUTIONS VARYING
FROM A MORE ERN PATH LIKE THE GFS/NAM /ENDING UP OVER SCENT KS BY
00Z SUNDAY/...VS A MORE NRN PATH FROM THE EC /UP TOWARD NWRN KS/.
LIFT OUT AHEAD OF THE LOW LOOKS TO BRING SOME SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE
SRN/SERN THIRD OF THE CWA. SLIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND EVEN INTO SUNDAY...AND KEPT POPS ON THE LOW SIDE
WITH MODELS KEEPING THE MAIN BRUNT OF THE PRECIPITATION OFF TO THE
E/S OF THE CWA. THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SUNDAY HAVE THE MOST AREAL
COVERAGE OF POPS...WITH THE ACTUAL CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
LOOKING TO CROSS THE REGION...THOUGH SLIGHT LOCATION/TIMING
DIFFERENCE CONTINUE BETWEEN MODELS. KEPT THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT
HOURS SUNDAY DRY FOR NOW WITH MORE SUPPORT GETTING THINGS OUT OF
HERE...BUT IT WOULDNT TAKE MUCH OF A SLOW DOWN FOR SOME POPS TO BE
NEEDED IN THE ERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. TEMP PROFILES AT THIS POINT
KEEP THINGS AS ALL LIQUID...WITH LITTLE/NO INSTABILITY
PRESENT...KEPT ANY THUNDER MENTION OUT AS WELL. TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND ARE TRICKY...AND WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE
LOCATION/TIMING OF THE SYSTEM AND ACCOMPANYING CLOUDS/PRECIP.
FORECAST HIGHS CURRENTLY ARE SITTING GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S.
LOOKING TOWARD MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE DRY FORECAST RETURNS
TO THE ENTIRE CWA. IN THE WAKE OF THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH ON SUNDAY...EXPECTING TO SEE ZONAL/SLIGHTLY
SWRLY FLOW SET UP ACROSS THE REGION...WITH NO NOTABLE SYSTEMS
PUSHING THROUGH. KEPT HIGHS NEAR THE ALLBLEND...WITH MODELS VARYING
WITH THE TIMING/MAGNITUDE OF COOLER AIR OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PUSHING THROUGH EARLY/MIDWEEK. THE GFS IS FASTER/COOLER THAN THE
EC...ALREADY TRYING TO PUSH A FRONT THROUGH ON TUESDAY...WITH THE EC
SHOWING A MORE MILD/WEAKER PASSAGE. FORECAST HIGHS MON THRU WED SIT
MAINLY IN THE MID/UPPER 60S...WITH LOWER 70S POSSIBLE AS WELL ACROSS
THE SOUTH.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1217 PM CST WED MAR 7 2012/
AVIATION...18Z KGRI TAF...MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR
A FEW MORE HOURS AT KGRI...WITH CEILINGS SLOWLY IMPROVING THROUGH
THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...AS THIS MORNINGS COLD FRONT CONTINUES
TO PUSH FURTHER SOUTHEAST. IN ADDITION...STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO RELAX AND BECOME LESS GUSTY AFTER AROUND
08/02Z AS SUN SETS AND PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS...WITH
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THEREAFTER.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BRYANT
SHORT TERM...ROSSI
LONG TERM...ADO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
946 PM EST FRI MAR 9 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PRODUCE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. DRY... COLD
WEATHER IS EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER WILL
RETURN ON SUNDAY... WITH SEVERAL DAYS OF WARM WEATHER EXPECTED
THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AT 930 PM...LOCAL RADARS SHOW WIDELY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE TWIN TIERS WITH WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY IN ONEIDA, MADISON AND
ONONDAGA COUNTIES. THE ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO DIMINISH IN BOTH
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY DUE TO LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING EXCEPT FOR
THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NRN CWA. SATELLITE SHOWS A
GEORGIAN BAY CONNECTION WHICH IS ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY. LOWERING
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND VEERING LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE THE ACTIVITY SOUTH WHILE IT WEAKENS. FOR NOW, INCREASED POPS TO
CATEGORICAL ACROSS MUCH OF ONEIDA/MADISON AND ONONDAGA COUNTIES.
AFTER MIDNIGHT THE MORE PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWERS WILL RESIDE ACROSS
ONONDAGA, SOUTHERN CAYUGA, NORTHERN CORTLAND AND NORTHERN CHENANGO
COUNTIES. IN GENERAL TOTAL SNOW ACCUMS OVERNIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 2
TO 4 INCHES IN THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS.
.PREVIOUS DISC...
500 MB TROUGH AND VORTICITY MAX WILL TRACK ACROSS AND
EAST OF THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. WIDESPREAD
SNOW SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER SQUALLS WILL DIMINISH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING.
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP FROM CENTRAL
NEW ENGLAND WNW BACK TOWARD LAKE ONTARIO THIS EVENING IN RESPONSE
TO THE SHORT WAVE MOVING EAST FROM NY ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THAT TROUGH
ALONG WITH SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT WITH A FLOW FROM AROUND 290
DEGREES AND 850 MB TEMP FROM -10 TO -12 SHOULD HELP TO ORGANIZE
SNOW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKE IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY THIS
EVENING. VSBL SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GREAT
LAKES INDICATE THAT THE ATMOSPHERE IS CURRENTLY SUPPORTING SOME
WNW ORIENTED SNOW BANDS OVER MICHIGAN CURRENTLY... AND THESE
SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO OUR AREA THIS EVENING WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT
BY THE SURFACE TROUGH. SOUTH OF THESE BANDS EXPECT JUST A FEW
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. THIS SCENARIO IS SUPPORTED BY THE HIGH
RESOLUTION HRRR AND 4 KM NAM.
THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT SHIFTING TO
AROUND 320 TO 330 DEGREES AFTER MIDNIGHT. THAT SHOULD ALLOW SOME
LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS TO SHIFT SOUTH TOWARD THE FINGER LAKES
OVERNIGHT. OVERALL EXPECT SNOW AMOUNTS TONIGHT SOUTHEAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO TO BE LIGHT AS TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE MARGINALLY COLD
ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT... WINDS WILL NOT BE VERY STRONG AND THE
INVERSION WILL BE LOWERING. NIGHT-TIME ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 4
INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS PROBABLY IN THE HILLS
SOUTH SYRACUSE AND MOHAWK VALLEY. CONCERN WOULD BE FOR LOCALLY
HEAVIER AMOUNTS IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
SURFACE TROUGH... BUT EXPECT THAT THIS BAND WILL NOT ORGANIZE
EARLY ENOUGH TO PERSIST FOR LONG BEFORE IT SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH
WITH THE WIND SHIFT TO NORTHWEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
VERY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD. ANY FLURRIES
SOUTHEAST OF THE FINGER LAKES SHOULD DIMINISH BY NOON ON
SATURDAY... WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BY
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT BEFORE A LONG PERIOD OF WARM WEATHER. AFTER A CHILLY START
SUNDAY MORNING EXPECT SUNSHINE AND RAPIDLY WARMING TEMPERATURES
DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH ALL AREAS RECOVERING WELL INTO THE
50S... AND SOME LOWER 60S POSSIBLE OVER THE LAKE PLAIN.
NEXT CHC OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL BE MONDAY AS A CLOSED UPPER
LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARD THE GREAT
LAKES. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THIS SCENARIO ON MONDAY... ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY FARTHER
EAST WITH SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION. AT THIS POINT A LOW CHC POP
SHOULD COVER THINGS FOR MONDAY WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS OVER THE
WESTERN PART OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME
WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL 500MB
HEIGHTS AND MILD CONDITIONS.
TWO SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD. A SFC LOW WILL
MOVE FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO EASTERN CANADA. MODEL
CONSENSUS IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN YESTERDAY SO WILL INCLUDE CHC
POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS BOTH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOOKS DRY WITH BUILDING H5 HEIGHTS
AND SFC HIGH PRES IN THE VCNTY. A SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH EASTERN
CANADA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. GFS MUCH STRONGER WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL WAVE
THROUGH EASTERN CANADA AND RESULTING SFC LOW COMPARED TO THE
ECMWF. FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE WHICH LEANED TOWARD THE GFS.
INCLUDED CHC POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT,
FOLLOWED BY DRY WEATHER ON FRIDAY.
TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL MORE IN LINE
WITH LATE APRIL NORMALS, WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 40S AND HIGHS UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS ARE CAUSING HIGHLY VARIABLE CONDITIONS AT
NY TERMINALS THIS EVENING. SNOW SHOWERS WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES
TO AROUND 1 MILE WHEN THEY MOVE IN, WITH VISIBILITIES POPPING
BACK UP TO P6SM AFTER SNOW SHOWERS MOVE OUT.
THE CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH BETWEEN 0Z AND
3Z.
THEREAFTER LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL PLAY THE LARGEST ROLE,
AFFECTING THE SYR TERMINAL FOR MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH
IFR VISIBILITIES. A FEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY SKIRT THE RME
AND ITH TERMINALS TOO.
WINDS WILL BE WEST-NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AROUND 10-15 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS OF 25 KNOTS OR HIGHER...ESPECIALLY THROUGH 6Z.
VFR CONDITIONS AND SLACKENING WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY.
.OUTLOOK...
SUN...VFR.
MON...MAINLY VFR. PSBL MVFR IN LATE DAY SHWRS.
TUE...VFR WITH PSBL MVFR IN -SHRA.
WED...VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE/RRM
NEAR TERM...MSE/RRM
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...DJP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
657 PM EST FRI MAR 9 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRACKING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
WILL BRING SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO PORTIONS OF THE NORTH
COUNTRY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND EXPECTED.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 632 PM EST FRIDAY...MAIN IDEA OF MY PREVIOUS FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK AT THIS TIME...WITH ONLY A FEW TWEAKS TO T/TD
GRIDS TO BETTER MATCH CURRENT OBS. REST OF FORECAST REMAINS
UNCHANGED.
TRICKY FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IN REGARDS TO QPF AND
POPS AS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH
TRACK THROUGH THE REGION. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES EVIDENT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH MODERATE TO
HEAVY CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS BEING REPORTED ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NEW YORK. LATEST 3KM HIS-RES RUC HAS A FAIRLY GOOD HANDLE
ON THIS ACTIVITY...WHICH LOOKS TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA LATER THIS EVENING. PRECIPITATION
THEN BECOMES ELONGATED ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST ALONG A LINE FROM MASSENA NEW YORK TO SPRINGFIELD
VERMONT AROUND MIDNIGHT...BEFORE SHIFTING SOUTHWARD AND
DISSIPATING. IN ADDITION...NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH MAY PROVIDE SOME UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...BUT THIS SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED AS
DRIER AIR ON THE FRONT-SIDE OF INCOMING HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
MOVE IN BY SATURDAY MORNING. WITH EXPECTED CLOUD COVER
OVERNIGHT...HAVE GONE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NWP GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS
TONIGHT...OFFERING LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS...WITH
SOME LOWER 20S POSSIBLE IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY CLOSER TO THE LAKE
SHORE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 352 PM EST FRIDAY...A FEW LINGER SNOW SHOWERS WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH
CONTINUES TO EXIT THE REGION...THOUGH SKIES SHOULD BE TRENDING
TOWARDS PARTLY SUNNY BY THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION. COLDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE EXITING SHORTWAVE RESULTING IN THE COLDEST TEMPS OF
THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID
30S.
DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER
THE REGION...AND RIDGING DEVELOPS ALOFT AS WELL. A WEAK UPPER
TROUGH PASSING WELL TO OUR NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT WILL KEEP SOME
CLOUDS AROUND AND KEEPS TEMPS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO FRIDAY
NIGHT...MAYBE JUST A FEW DEGREES WARMER. LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS EASTWARD...STRONG SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION USHERING WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS. SOME WIND GUSTS MAY BE AS HIGH AS
35-40 MPH IN THE IMMEDIATE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING...BUT SHOULD BE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.
CLEAR SKIES AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS WILL BE GENERALLY IN
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...WITH LOWS ONLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 335 PM EST FRIDAY...MILDER WEATHER AND MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK.
ECMWF AND GFS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION LATER
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY
AND WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION...MAINLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EARLY THURSDAY EVENING. ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD EAST INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY.
ECMWF AND GFS MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. THUS...FORECASTER
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA
WILL BRING SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH SOME AREAS
OF MVFR/IFR EXPECTED. EXPECTING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 15Z
SATURDAY. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE BECOMING NORTHWEST 5-15 KTS
OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUING SATURDAY.
OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
00Z SUNDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION.
00Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR...BUT WITH POSSIBLE MVFR
IN RAIN SHOWERS.
00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 352 PM EST FRIDAY...A FEW ICE JAMS HAVE BEEN REPORTED ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY WITH THE MOST NOTABLE OCCURRING ALONG THE
MISSISQUOI RIVER BETWEEN ENOSBURG FALLS AND EAST BERKSHIRE...CAUSING
MINOR FLOODING. MOST RIVER GAGE LEVELS ACROSS THE AREA ARE SLOWLY
FALLING WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN ANY FLOOD WATERS RECEDING BY THIS
EVENING.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH/RJS
HYDROLOGY...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
640 PM EST FRI MAR 9 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRACKING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
WILL BRING SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO PORTIONS OF THE NORTH
COUNTRY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND EXPECTED.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 632 PM EST FRIDAY...MAIN IDEA OF MY PREVIOUS FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK AT THIS TIME...WITH ONLY A FEW TWEAKS TO T/TD
GRIDS TO BETTER MATCH CURRENT OBS. REST OF FORECAST REMAINS
UNCHANGED.
TRICKY FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IN REGARDS TO QPF AND
POPS AS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH
TRACK THROUGH THE REGION. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES EVIDENT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH MODERATE TO
HEAVY CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS BEING REPORTED ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NEW YORK. LATEST 3KM HIS-RES RUC HAS A FAIRLY GOOD HANDLE
ON THIS ACTIVITY...WHICH LOOKS TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA LATER THIS EVENING. PRECIPITATION
THEN BECOMES ELONGATED ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST ALONG A LINE FROM MASSENA NEW YORK TO SPRINGFIELD
VERMONT AROUND MIDNIGHT...BEFORE SHIFTING SOUTHWARD AND
DISSIPATING. IN ADDITION...NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH MAY PROVIDE SOME UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...BUT THIS SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED AS
DRIER AIR ON THE FRONT-SIDE OF INCOMING HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
MOVE IN BY SATURDAY MORNING. WITH EXPECTED CLOUD COVER
OVERNIGHT...HAVE GONE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NWP GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS
TONIGHT...OFFERING LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS...WITH
SOME LOWER 20S POSSIBLE IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY CLOSER TO THE LAKE
SHORE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 352 PM EST FRIDAY...A FEW LINGER SNOW SHOWERS WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH
CONTINUES TO EXIT THE REGION...THOUGH SKIES SHOULD BE TRENDING
TOWARDS PARTLY SUNNY BY THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION. COLDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE EXITING SHORTWAVE RESULTING IN THE COLDEST TEMPS OF
THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID
30S.
DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER
THE REGION...AND RIDGING DEVELOPS ALOFT AS WELL. A WEAK UPPER
TROUGH PASSING WELL TO OUR NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT WILL KEEP SOME
CLOUDS AROUND AND KEEPS TEMPS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO FRIDAY
NIGHT...MAYBE JUST A FEW DEGREES WARMER. LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS EASTWARD...STRONG SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION USHERING WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS. SOME WIND GUSTS MAY BE AS HIGH AS
35-40 MPH IN THE IMMEDIATE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING...BUT SHOULD BE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.
CLEAR SKIES AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS WILL BE GENERALLY IN
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...WITH LOWS ONLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 335 PM EST FRIDAY...MILDER WEATHER AND MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK.
ECMWF AND GFS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION LATER
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY
AND WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION...MAINLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EARLY THURSDAY EVENING. ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD EAST INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY.
ECMWF AND GFS MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. THUS...FORECASTER
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA
AND THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BRING SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT WITH SOME AREAS OF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. EXPECTING MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS AFTER 15Z SATURDAY.
OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
18Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION.
00Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR...BUT WITH POSSIBLE MVFR
IN RAIN SHOWERS.
00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 352 PM EST FRIDAY...A FEW ICE JAMS HAVE BEEN REPORTED ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY WITH THE MOST NOTABLE OCCURRING ALONG THE
MISSISQUOI RIVER BETWEEN ENOSBURG FALLS AND EAST BERKSHIRE...CAUSING
MINOR FLOODING. MOST RIVER GAGE LEVELS ACROSS THE AREA ARE SLOWLY
FALLING WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN ANY FLOOD WATERS RECEDING BY THIS
EVENING.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH
HYDROLOGY...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
605 PM EST FRI MAR 9 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST THIS EVENING... FOLLOWED
BY A CHILLY NORTHWEST FLOW TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SNOW SHOWERS
OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING... EXCEPT FOR A FEW BANDS OF LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW
PERSISTING INTO THE MORNING HOURS ON SATURDAY. DRY... COLD WEATHER
IS EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER WILL
RETURN ON SUNDAY... WITH SEVERAL DAYS OF WARM WEATHER EXPECTED
THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
500 MB TROUGH AND VORTICITY MAX WILL TRACK ACROSS AND EAST OF THE
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. WIDESPREAD SNOW
SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER SQUALLS WILL DIMINISH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING.
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP FROM CENTRAL
NEW ENGLAND WNW BACK TOWARD LAKE ONTARIO THIS EVENING IN RESPONSE
TO THE SHORT WAVE MOVING EAST FROM NY ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THAT TROUGH
ALONG WITH SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT WITH A FLOW FROM AROUND 290
DEGREES AND 850 MB TEMP FROM -10 TO -12 SHOULD HELP TO ORGANIZE
SNOW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKE IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY THIS
EVENING. VSBL SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GREAT
LAKES INDICATE THAT THE ATMOSPHERE IS CURRENTLY SUPPORTING SOME
WNW ORIENTED SNOW BANDS OVER MICHIGAN CURRENTLY... AND THESE
SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO OUR AREA THIS EVENING WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT
BY THE SURFACE TROUGH. SOUTH OF THESE BANDS EXPECT JUST A FEW
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. THIS SCENARIO IS SUPPORTED BY THE HIGH
RESOLUTION HRRR AND 4 KM NAM.
THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT SHIFTING TO
AROUND 320 TO 330 DEGREES AFTER MIDNIGHT. THAT SHOULD ALLOW SOME
LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS TO SHIFT SOUTH TOWARD THE FINGER LAKES
OVERNIGHT. OVERALL EXPECT SNOW AMOUNTS TONIGHT SOUTHEAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO TO BE LIGHT AS TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE MARGINALLY COLD
ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT... WINDS WILL NOT BE VERY STRONG AND THE
INVERSION WILL BE LOWERING. NIGHT-TIME ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 4
INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS PROBABLY IN THE HILLS
SOUTH SYRACUSE AND MOHAWK VALLEY. CONCERN WOULD BE FOR LOCALLY
HEAVIER AMOUNTS IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
SURFACE TROUGH... BUT EXPECT THAT THIS BAND WILL NOT ORGANIZE
EARLY ENOUGH TO PERSIST FOR LONG BEFORE IT SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH
WITH THE WIND SHIFT TO NORTHWEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
VERY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD. ANY FLURRIES
SOUTHEAST OF THE FINGER LAKES SHOULD DIMINISH BY NOON ON
SATURDAY... WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BY
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT BEFORE A LONG PERIOD OF WARM WEATHER. AFTER A CHILLY START
SUNDAY MORNING EXPECT SUNSHINE AND RAPIDLY WARMING TEMPERATURES
DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH ALL AREAS RECOVERING WELL INTO THE
50S... AND SOME LOWER 60S POSSIBLE OVER THE LAKE PLAIN.
NEXT CHC OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL BE MONDAY AS A CLOSED UPPER
LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARD THE GREAT
LAKES. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THIS SCENARIO ON MONDAY... ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY FARTHER
EAST WITH SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION. AT THIS POINT A LOW CHC POP
SHOULD COVER THINGS FOR MONDAY WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS OVER THE
WESTERN PART OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME
WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL 500MB
HEIGHTS AND MILD CONDITIONS.
TWO SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD. A SFC LOW WILL
MOVE FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO EASTERN CANADA. MODEL
CONSENSUS IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN YESTERDAY SO WILL INCLUDE CHC
POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS BOTH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOOKS DRY WITH BUILDING H5 HEIGHTS
AND SFC HIGH PRES IN THE VCNTY. A SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH EASTERN
CANADA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. GFS MUCH STRONGER WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL WAVE
THROUGH EASTERN CANADA AND RESULTING SFC LOW COMPARED TO THE
ECMWF. FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE WHICH LEANED TOWARD THE GFS.
INCLUDED CHC POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT,
FOLLOWED BY DRY WEATHER ON FRIDAY.
TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL MORE IN LINE
WITH LATE APRIL NORMALS, WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 40S AND HIGHS UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS ARE CAUSING HIGHLY VARIABLE CONDITIONS AT
NY TERMINALS THIS EVENING. SNOW SHOWERS WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES
TO AROUND 1 MILE WHEN THEY MOVE IN, WITH VISIBILITIES POPPING
BACK UP TO P6SM AFTER SNOW SHOWERS MOVE OUT.
THE CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH BETWEEN 0Z AND
3Z.
THEREAFTER LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL PLAY THE LARGEST ROLE,
AFFECTING THE SYR TERMINAL FOR MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH
IFR VISIBILITIES. A FEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY SKIRT THE RME
AND ITH TERMINALS TOO.
WINDS WILL BE WEST-NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AROUND 10-15 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS OF 25 KNOTS OR HIGHER...ESPECIALLY THROUGH 6Z.
VFR CONDITIONS AND SLACKENING WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY.
.OUTLOOK...
SUN...VFR.
MON...MAINLY VFR. PSBL MVFR IN LATE DAY SHWRS.
TUE...VFR WITH PSBL MVFR IN -SHRA.
WED...VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...MSE
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...DJP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
638 PM EST FRI MAR 9 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD TONIGHT...THEN BE CENTERED OVER THE
CAROLINAS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL THEN MOVE OFF
THE COAST SUNDAY...AND WILL REMAIN JUST EAST OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS
FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 630 PM FRIDAY...LOW CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED ALL BUT THE OUTER
BANKS AS OF 23Z AND SHOULD EXIT THERE SHORTLY. LATEST SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...WHICH THE RUC SHOWS
SHOULD EXIT THE AREA BY 04Z. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY CLEAR SKIES
AND A N/NE BREEZE. ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THE CURRENT
FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM FRI...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ALONG THE
EASTERN US SAT. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND NE FLOW SUPPORT
HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. GUSTY NNE WINDS EXPECTED
LATE SAT MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
SLIGHTLY BTWN HIGH PRESSURE AND FRONT WELL TO THE SOUTH...WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20-25 MPH.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STRONG HIGH PRES WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE NW SATURDAY
EVE. WITH THE HIGH MOVING OVERHEAD LATE SAT NIGHT EXPECT EXCELLENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH LOWS IN THE UPR 20S TO LOWER 30S
INLAND...FOR NOW HAVE OBX IN MID/UPR 30S HOWEVER IF WINDS GO CALM
THEY COULD FLIRT WITH FREEZING WITH POSS ADVISORIES NEEDED. UPR
RDG WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY WITH TEMPS MODERATING IN
TO THE LOWER 60S INLAND. THE SFC HIGH WILL SLOWLY SLIP OFFSHORE
MON...WITH UPR RDG ALONG THE CST EXPECT HIGHS AROUND 70 INLAND.
COMBO OF RETURN FLOW AROUND OFFSHORE HIGH AND WEAKENING SRT WAVE
CROSSING ALOFT MAY LEAD TO SOME SPOTTY SHRA TUE BUT FOR NOW THREAT
LOOKS LIMITED PER LACK OF FORCING...CONT PREV FCST OF SLIGHT POPS
MAINLY INLAND. CONT MILD AND MAINLY DRY WED AND THU AS BROAD
RIDGING ALOFT CONTS OVER THE REGION. WEAK SRT WAVE MOVING SE MAY
AGAIN LEAD TO SMALL CHC OF SHRA THU NIGHT OR FRI. HIGHS WED AND
THU SHLD BE WELL INTO THE 70S INLAND FROM THE BEACHES. MAY NOT BE
QUITE AS MILD ON FRIDAY AS CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SCTD PRECIP AFFECT
THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
/SHORT TERM TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 630 PM FRI...LOW CLOUDS ARE NOW EAST OF ALL TAF SITES AND
SKIES ARE CLEARING AT PGV AND ISO. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 4 HOURS AROUND EWN AND OAJ. SKIES
WILL CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT N WINDS. GUSTY NE WINDS EXPECTED
FOR SAT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.
/LONG TERM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR SAT NIGHT THRU MON AS STRONG HIGH BUILDS ACROSS WITH
DRY AIRMASS. AS THE HIGH SLIPS OFFSHORE MON NIGHT AND TUE LOW LVL
MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING WITH THREAT OF SOME REDUCED CIGS AND
POSS EARLY MORN FOG.
&&
.MARINE...
/SHORT TERM THROUGH SATURDAY...
AS OF 240 PM FRI...AS PREDICTED...WINDS HAVE HIT A BIT OF A LULL
THIS EVENING...GENERALLY IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE CURRENTLY.
SEAS REMAIN IN THE 5 TO 7 FOOT RANGE. WINDS SHOULD PICK UP AGAIN
IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION SURGE WORKS ITS
WAY DOWN THE COAST AS MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWING SOME DECENT PRESSURE
RISES. WINDS WILL PEAK AT 20-25KT WITH GUSTS TO 30KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. MODERATE TO STRONG N/NNE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING LATE
SAT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. DID NOT MAKE SIG
CHANGES TO PREVIOUS SCA HEADLINES...OTHER THAN TO EXTEND SCA FOR
THE SOUNDS INTO SAT...ESP FOR THE PAMLICO WHERE MODELS SUGGEST
THAT WINDS HANG ON A LITTLE LONGER FOR EASTERN PORTIONS.
/LONG TERM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GUSTY N/NE WINDS WILL GRAD DIMINISH LATE SAT AND SAT NIGHT AS
HIGH BUILDS OVER THE AREA. SEAS WILL CONT IN SCA RANGE FOR CSTL
WTRS INTO SAT NIGHT THEN SHUD SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 5 FT SUNDAY
MORNING AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT. HIGH PRES WILL CONT OVER THE REGION
SUNDAY THEN GRAD SLIDE OFFSHORE MON AND TUE. WINDS SHLD BE LIGHT
SUN THRU TUE WITH SEAS 3 TO 5 FT EARLY SUNDAY SUBSIDING TO 2 TO 4
FT LATER SUNDAY AND CONT IN THAT RANGE THRU INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ130.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154-
156-158.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HSA/CQD
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...BTC/RF
AVIATION...CTC/CQD/BTC
MARINE...CTC/CQD/BTC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1020 AM CST THU MAR 8 2012
.DISCUSSION...
MAIN CHALLENGES REMAIN MAX TEMPS AND FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH
-SN/BLSN. COLD FRONT NOW STARTING TO ENTER THE NW PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH -SN REDUCING VISIBILITIES. MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL
SHOW AN ADIABATIC LAYER IN THE LOW LEVELS SO WIND FORECAST
REMAINS GOOD. EXPECT TEMPS TO LEVEL OFF A BIT AFTER 18Z WHEN THE
COLD ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN PUSHING IN TO THE NORTHERN
AREAS.
AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDS THIS MORNING WILL LOWER TO MVFR THIS AFTN WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT. NW WINDS WILL INCREASE IN ALL AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND GUSTS TO 35KT WILL BE POSSIBLE. THERE COULD BE SOME
BLSN IN THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON...AND VSBYS SHOULD BE REDUCED ALONG
WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD QUICKLY
SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM CST THU MAR 8 2012/
DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN CHALLENGES WILL BE WIND AND BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL TODAY
AND TEMPS THROUGHOUT. MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING THIS INITIAL SNOW
BAND OVER THE REGION WELL AT ALL...WITH THE RUC DOING THE BEST IN
THE NEAR TERM. SOME REPORTS AND RADAR INDICATING A NARROW BAND OF
1-2 INCHES FROM GRAFTON TO MINTO TO MANVEL INTO THE GRAND FORKS
AREA. WILL USE A MODEL BLEND AND NOT WARM THINGS UP TOO QUICKLY
WITH STILL A DECENT SNOW PACK OVER THE REGION.
FOR TODAY...SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE REGION. A
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH
ABOUT 40-50KT TO MIX THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. A STRONG
PRESSURE RISE WILL ALSO COME DOWN THE VALLEY...SO EXPECT WINDY
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH LIKELY. WILL ISSUE
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHERN VALLEY WITH SOME SNOW
THIS MORNING...AND SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT SO THERE IS FRESH
SNOW TO BLOW AROUND. THE STRONG WINDS SHOULD CAUSE BLOWING SNOW
AND OPEN COUNTRY VSBY ISSUES...ESPECIALLY WHEN SNOW SHOWERS
COMBINE WITH INCREASING WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. WILL GO WITH A WIND
ADVISORY FOR THE REST OF THE REGION FROM 18Z-00Z. TEMPS WON/T WARM
TOO MUCH GIVEN COLD FRONT AND INCREASING CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SNOW
SHOWERS.
FOR TONIGHT...SFC HIGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION AND IT WILL GET
COLD IN THE EAST...WHERE TEMPS SHOULD DIP BELOW ZERO. EXPECT
WARMER TEMPS TO THE WEST WITH RETURN FLOW BEGINNING AFTER 06Z.
ON FRI...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE...ALTHOUGH WITH A COLD
START TEMPS WON/T GET TOO WARM IN THE VALLEY. HAVE LOWERED TEMPS
SOME FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST ALTHOUGH WITH SUNSHINE EXPECT AT LEAST
SOME MELTING.
ON SAT/SUN...MORE OF A WESTERLY SFC FLOW AND WARMING THERMAL
FIELDS AT ALL LEVELS WILL MEAN TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECT THE
WARMEST READINGS IN THE WEST AND TREED AREAS IN THE EAST...WITH
COLDER READINGS ON THE VALLEY FLOOR.
ON MON...ANY PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA AND WILL KEEP
IT DRY WITH WARM WEATHER CONTINUING NEXT WEEK.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NDZ028>030-038-039-
049-052-053.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026-027-054.
MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ002-003-006-009-
016-017-022>024-027>032-040.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ001-
004-005-007-008-013>015.
&&
$$
HOPKINS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
402 AM CST THU MAR 8 2012
.DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN CHALLENGES WILL BE WIND AND BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL TODAY
AND TEMPS THROUGHOUT. MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING THIS INITIAL SNOW
BAND OVER THE REGION WELL AT ALL...WITH THE RUC DOING THE BEST IN
THE NEAR TERM. SOME REPORTS AND RADAR INDICATING A NARROW BAND OF
1-2 INCHES FROM GRAFTON TO MINTO TO MANVEL INTO THE GRAND FORKS
AREA. WILL USE A MODEL BLEND AND NOT WARM THINGS UP TOO QUICKLY
WITH STILL A DECENT SNOW PACK OVER THE REGION.
FOR TODAY...SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE REGION. A
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH
ABOUT 40-50KT TO MIX THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. A STRONG
PRESSURE RISE WILL ALSO COME DOWN THE VALLEY...SO EXPECT WINDY
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH LIKELY. WILL ISSUE
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHERN VALLEY WITH SOME SNOW
THIS MORNING...AND SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT SO THERE IS FRESH
SNOW TO BLOW AROUND. THE STRONG WINDS SHOULD CAUSE BLOWING SNOW
AND OPEN COUNTRY VSBY ISSUES...ESPECIALLY WHEN SNOW SHOWERS
COMBINE WITH INCREASING WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. WILL GO WITH A WIND
ADVISORY FOR THE REST OF THE REGION FROM 18Z-00Z. TEMPS WON/T WARM
TOO MUCH GIVEN COLD FRONT AND INCREASING CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SNOW
SHOWERS.
FOR TONIGHT...SFC HIGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION AND IT WILL GET
COLD IN THE EAST...WHERE TEMPS SHOULD DIP BELOW ZERO. EXPECT
WARMER TEMPS TO THE WEST WITH RETURN FLOW BEGINNING AFTER 06Z.
ON FRI...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE...ALTHOUGH WITH A COLD
START TEMPS WON/T GET TOO WARM IN THE VALLEY. HAVE LOWERED TEMPS
SOME FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST ALTHOUGH WITH SUNSHINE EXPECT AT LEAST
SOME MELTING.
ON SAT/SUN...MORE OF A WESTERLY SFC FLOW AND WARMING THERMAL
FIELDS AT ALL LEVELS WILL MEAN TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECT THE
WARMEST READINGS IN THE WEST AND TREED AREAS IN THE EAST...WITH
COLDER READINGS ON THE VALLEY FLOOR.
ON MON...ANY PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA AND WILL KEEP
IT DRY WITH WARM WEATHER CONTINUING NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH CURRENT SNOW BAND AS IT PUSHES
EAST EARLY THIS MORNING. NW WINDS WILL INCREASE IN ALL AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND GUSTS TO 35KT WILL BE POSSIBLE. THERE COULD BE SOME
BLSN IN THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON...AND VSBYS SHOULD BE REDUCED ALONG
WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON WITH COLD FRONT. WINDS
SHOULD QUICKLY SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ028>030-038-039-049-052-053.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026-027-054.
MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
MNZ002-003-006-009-016-017-022>024-027>032-040.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
FOR MNZ001-004-005-007-008-013>015.
&&
$$
DK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ABERDEEN SD
245 PM CST THU MAR 8 2012
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF ND THIS
AFTERNOON. COMBINED WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE DAKOTAS TONIGHT AND SNOW COVER ON THE
GROUND...TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS IN
THE EAST. WHERE GROUND IS BARE...EXPECT LOWS TO DROP INTO THE
UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH BETWEEN 0Z AND 03Z AFTER THE FROPA. UNTIL THEN
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE BETWEEN 21Z AND 0Z. MOST AREAS WILL STAY
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA..THOUGH THE 17Z RUC INDICATES THAT CORSON
COUNTY AND LOCAL AREAS IN THE FAR NORTHEAST CORNER MAY BRIEFLY SEE
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 MPH. DECIDED THE IMPACT WAS NOT SUFFICIENT
ENOUGH TO MERIT AN ADVISORY. AT THIS POINT SNOW PACK IS WET AND
HEAVY ENOUGH TO LIMIT ANY BLOWING SNOW.
WITH DRY WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND CONTINUING THROUGH
SATURDAY...WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
IN SNOW FREE AREAS ACROSS CENTRAL SD. EXPECT SURFACE TEMPS TO CLIMB
INTO THE LOWER 50S IN THE EAST TO LOWER 70S IN SOUTHCENTRAL SD BY
SATURDAY AS H85 TEMPS RISE TO NEAR +13.
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
AS THE PERIOD OPENS...THERE IS A LONGWAVE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
POSITIONED OVER THE WESTERN CONUS /ESPECIALLY THE PAC NW/ AND A
CUT-OFF LOW SPINNING/MEANDERING OVER THE DESERT SW. BY
MONDAY...THIS CUT-OFF LOW IS FINALLY EJECTING OUT OF THE SWRN
CONUS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. TEMP-WISE...CURRENT
SOLUTIONS SUGGEST IT WILL BE WARM ENOUGH THAT ANY PRECIPITATION
COMING INTO THE FAR EASTERN CWA SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS LOW WOULD BE RAIN. THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG
TERM SEES THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST REPOSITION TO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES/EASTERN CONUS...WHILE A BROAD LONGWAVE TROF
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WEST COAST WITH VARIOUS TRANSIENT S/WS PROGGED
TO WORK INLAND ACROSS WASHINGTON..IDAHO AND MONTANA BEFORE BEING
REDIRECTED NORTH AND EAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHERN MN AND SC
CANADA. LARGELY...THIS CWA IS NOT EXPECTED TO RECEIVE MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION BETWEEN MONDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. OTHER THAN A COLD
FRONT PROGGED TO PASS THROUGH WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT BRINGING A
TEMPORARY COOL DOWN...THERE SEEMS TO BE NO END IN SIGHT TO
MILD...UNSEASONABLY WARM /MUCH ABOVE NORMAL/ AIR OVER THE CWA NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE TAF PERIOD WITH SCT MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MID-EVENING.
ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...THE KABR AND KATY TERMINALS
MAY BE FLIRTING WITH SOME 3000FT AGL CIGS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OFF
BY LATE THIS EVENING. BREEZY WESTERLY SFC WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
WILL SWITCH AROUND TO THE NORTH IN THE FAR NORTHEAST CORNER OF
SOUTH DAKOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS
FOR A FEW HOURS. KABR AND KATY MAY GET INTO THESE STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS VERY BRIEFLY EARLY THIS EVENING. MORE
LIKELY...THESE TWO TERMINALS...LIKE KPIR AND KMBG...WILL JUST
GRADUALLY LOOSE THE GUST CHARACTER BY EARLY THIS EVENING AS WINDS
SLOWLY SWING AROUND FROM WEST TO NORTH TO EAST BY LATE
TONIGHT...AND FINALLY AROUND TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BY FRIDAY
MORNING.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...DORN
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ABERDEEN SD
1204 PM CST THU MAR 8 2012
.UPDATE...
ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES ACROSS ROBERTS/BIG STONE/TRAVERSE COUNTIES
AFTER 21Z. AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES OUT OF ND LATER TODAY...IT
WILL CAUSE A NON-DIURNAL TEMP TREND...COOLING THINGS OFF IN THE
NE. 15Z RUC INDICATES ANY ASSOCIATED LIGHT PRECIP WILL REMAIN OFF
TO THE EAST OF THIS CWA SO DID NOT ADD IN ANY FLURRIES...THOUGH
THEY ARE NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION IF THE WAVE FOLLOWS
ITS CURRENT TRAJECTORY SO WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THAT.
OTHERWISE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK AND NO FURTHER
CHANGES WERE MADE.
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WARM UP THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. FOR
TODAY...A COUPLE SHORT WAVES WILL AFFECT THE REGION ALONG WITH A
COLD FRONT. THE FIRST SHORT WAVE WAS MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN SD
THIS MORNING BRINGING SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS ALONG WITH A FEW
FLURRIES IN NORTHEAST SD AND WC MN EARLY THIS MORNING. THE OTHER
STRONGER SHORT WAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA AND ACROSS
NORTHERN MN TODAY. THE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS WAVE WILL REMAIN
TO OUR NORTHEAST. THE ISSUE WITH THIS WAVE WILL BE THE COLD FRONT
DROPPING IN BEHIND IT THIS AFTERNOON AND SWEEPING ACROSS EASTERN
SD. AS A RESULT...WEST WINDS THIS MORNING WILL TURN NORTHWEST INTO
THE AFTERNOON AND INCREASE QUITE A BIT. AS THE CAA INCREASES AND
THE MIXING LAYER DEEPENS THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT IT TO BECOME
WINDY ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST SD AND WC MN THIS AFTERNOON. WILL
BE CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY WINDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE
REACHED IN ADVANCE OR JUST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON.
LOWERED AFTERNOON HIGHS SOME EAST IN THE CWA. THE SNOW COVER ALSO
REMAINS PRETTY EXTENSIVE EAST IN THE CWA WITH AMOUNTS FROM 2 TO
OVER 10 INCHES. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE AN AFFECT ON HIGH
TEMPERATURES INTO FRIDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH IN TONIGHT WITH WINDS FALLING OFF
QUICKLY EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL PUSH EAST ON FRIDAY WITH
WINDS TURNING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND INCREASING. EXPECT MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS. DROPPED TEMPERATURES SOME
EAST IN THE CWA FOR TONIGHT. FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE MODELS
SHOW UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING AND REMAINING OVER THE REGION AS
VERY WARM 85H AIR OF OVER +10C PUSHES IN ON FRIDAY AND REMAINS
THROUGH SATURDAY. FRIDAY WILL BE WARMER WITH BREEZY/WINDY
SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
INCREASING MIXING LAYER. THE SNOW COVER SHOULD STILL KEEP HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 40S EAST IN THE CWA. BY SATURDAY...MUCH OF THE
SNOW COVER WILL BE DIMINISHED WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S CWA
WIDE. IT WILL BE DRY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH VERY LITTLE IF ANY
CLOUD COVER.
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECASTING IS THE MAIN CHALLENGE THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...AND DETERMINING JUST HOW WARM IT WILL GET AS
VERY MILD AIR MASS STREAMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. 850 MB AND
EVEN 925 MB TEMPS SOAR INTO THE TEENS ABOVE CELSIUS DURING SEVERAL
PERIODS FROM LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. LATE
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEASTERN
CWA COULD STILL BE DEALING WITH SNOW COVER BUT EXPECT THIS TO BE
QUICKLY DIMINISHING THROUGH THE TIME PERIOD. MAY NEED TO TEMPER
READINGS ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST BUT WILL HAVE TO SEE
HOW SNOW COVER MELTS UNTIL THEN. 00Z GFS STILL SHOWING A COOLING
FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR TUESDAY WHICH WOULD KNOCK TEMPS BACK
SOME...BUT THIS HAS NO SUPPORT FROM 00Z RUNS OF THE EC OR CANADIAN
MODELS. FOR RIGHT NOW CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE A FEW
TICKS LOWER THEN MONDAY...BUT STILL VERY MILD NONETHELESS WITH
READINGS IN THE 50S AND 60S. IN FACT...THE ENTIRE EXTENDED PERIOD
IS SHAPING UP VERY MILD WITH READINGS MOSTLY IN THE 50S AND
60S...POSSIBLY EVEN A FEW LOW 70S OVER THE SOUTHWEST CWA.
AS FOR PRECIPITATION...IT LOOKS DRY THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AT THIS
TIME. WILL NEED TO WATCH A SHORTWAVE THAT TRAVELS NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. FOR THE MOST
PART...MODELS HAVE KEPT THIS SYSTEM TO THE EAST THE PAST COUPLE
DAYS. THE MOST RECENT RUNS OF THE EC AND CANADIAN NUDGE THIS BACK
WEST NOW AND BRING WESTERN EDGE OF PRECIP SHIELD NEAR I-29
CORRIDOR. GFS REMAINS FASTER AND FARTHER EAST WITH WAVE. SOMETHING
TO WATCH AS POPS MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TO THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES
IF MODELS KEEP NUDGING THIS SYSTEM FURTHER WEST.
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE TAF PERIOD WITH SCT MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MID-EVENING.
ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...THE KABR AND KATY TERMINALS
MAY BE FLIRTING WITH SOME 3000FT AGL CIGS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OFF
BY LATE THIS EVENING. BREEZY WESTERLY SFC WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
WILL SWITCH AROUND TO THE NORTH IN THE FAR NORTHEAST CORNER OF
SOUTH DAKOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS
FOR A FEW HOURS. KABR AND KATY MAY GET INTO THESE STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS VERY BRIEFLY EARLY THIS EVENING. MORE
LIKELY...THESE TWO TERMINALS...LIKE KPIR AND KMBG...WILL JUST
GRADUALLY LOOSE THE GUST CHARACTER BY EARLY THIS EVENING AS WINDS
SLOWLY SWING AROUND FROM WEST TO NORTH TO EAST BY LATE
TONIGHT...AND FINALLY AROUND TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BY FRIDAY
MORNING.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...MOHR
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...DORN
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ABERDEEN SD
1029 AM CST THU MAR 8 2012
.UPDATE...
ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES ACROSS ROBERTS/BIG STONE/TRAVERSE COUNTIES
AFTER 21Z. AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES OUT OF ND LATER TODAY...IT
WILL CAUSE A NON-DIURNAL TEMP TREND...COOLING THINGS OFF IN THE
NE. 15Z RUC INDICATES ANY ASSOCIATED LIGHT PRECIP WILL REMAIN OFF
TO THE EAST OF THIS CWA SO DID NOT ADD IN ANY FLURRIES...THOUGH
THEY ARE NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION IF THE WAVE FOLLOWS
ITS CURRENT TRAJECTORY SO WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THAT.
OTHERWISE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK AND NO FURTHER
CHANGES WERE MADE.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WARM UP THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. FOR
TODAY...A COUPLE SHORT WAVES WILL AFFECT THE REGION ALONG WITH A
COLD FRONT. THE FIRST SHORT WAVE WAS MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN SD
THIS MORNING BRINGING SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS ALONG WITH A FEW
FLURRIES IN NORTHEAST SD AND WC MN EARLY THIS MORNING. THE OTHER
STRONGER SHORT WAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA AND ACROSS
NORTHERN MN TODAY. THE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS WAVE WILL REMAIN
TO OUR NORTHEAST. THE ISSUE WITH THIS WAVE WILL BE THE COLD FRONT
DROPPING IN BEHIND IT THIS AFTERNOON AND SWEEPING ACROSS EASTERN
SD. AS A RESULT...WEST WINDS THIS MORNING WILL TURN NORTHWEST INTO
THE AFTERNOON AND INCREASE QUITE A BIT. AS THE CAA INCREASES AND
THE MIXING LAYER DEEPENS THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT IT TO BECOME
WINDY ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST SD AND WC MN THIS AFTERNOON. WILL
BE CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY WINDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE
REACHED IN ADVANCE OR JUST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON.
LOWERED AFTERNOON HIGHS SOME EAST IN THE CWA. THE SNOW COVER ALSO
REMAINS PRETTY EXTENSIVE EAST IN THE CWA WITH AMOUNTS FROM 2 TO
OVER 10 INCHES. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE AN AFFECT ON HIGH
TEMPERATURES INTO FRIDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH IN TONIGHT WITH WINDS FALLING OFF
QUICKLY EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL PUSH EAST ON FRIDAY WITH
WINDS TURNING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND INCREASING. EXPECT MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS. DROPPED TEMPERATURES SOME
EAST IN THE CWA FOR TONIGHT. FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE MODELS
SHOW UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING AND REMAINING OVER THE REGION AS
VERY WARM 85H AIR OF OVER +10C PUSHES IN ON FRIDAY AND REMAINS
THROUGH SATURDAY. FRIDAY WILL BE WARMER WITH BREEZY/WINDY
SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
INCREASING MIXING LAYER. THE SNOW COVER SHOULD STILL KEEP HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 40S EAST IN THE CWA. BY SATURDAY...MUCH OF THE
SNOW COVER WILL BE DIMINISHED WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S CWA
WIDE. IT WILL BE DRY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH VERY LITTLE IF ANY
CLOUD COVER.
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECASTING IS THE MAIN CHALLENGE THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...AND DETERMINING JUST HOW WARM IT WILL GET AS
VERY MILD AIR MASS STREAMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. 850 MB AND
EVEN 925 MB TEMPS SOAR INTO THE TEENS ABOVE CELSIUS DURING SEVERAL
PERIODS FROM LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. LATE
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEASTERN
CWA COULD STILL BE DEALING WITH SNOW COVER BUT EXPECT THIS TO BE
QUICKLY DIMINISHING THROUGH THE TIME PERIOD. MAY NEED TO TEMPER
READINGS ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST BUT WILL HAVE TO SEE
HOW SNOW COVER MELTS UNTIL THEN. 00Z GFS STILL SHOWING A COOLING
FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR TUESDAY WHICH WOULD KNOCK TEMPS BACK
SOME...BUT THIS HAS NO SUPPORT FROM 00Z RUNS OF THE EC OR CANADIAN
MODELS. FOR RIGHT NOW CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE A FEW
TICKS LOWER THEN MONDAY...BUT STILL VERY MILD NONETHELESS WITH
READINGS IN THE 50S AND 60S. IN FACT...THE ENTIRE EXTENDED PERIOD
IS SHAPING UP VERY MILD WITH READINGS MOSTLY IN THE 50S AND
60S...POSSIBLY EVEN A FEW LOW 70S OVER THE SOUTHWEST CWA.
AS FOR PRECIPITATION...IT LOOKS DRY THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AT THIS
TIME. WILL NEED TO WATCH A SHORTWAVE THAT TRAVELS NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. FOR THE MOST
PART...MODELS HAVE KEPT THIS SYSTEM TO THE EAST THE PAST COUPLE
DAYS. THE MOST RECENT RUNS OF THE EC AND CANADIAN NUDGE THIS BACK
WEST NOW AND BRING WESTERN EDGE OF PRECIP SHIELD NEAR I-29
CORRIDOR. GFS REMAINS FASTER AND FARTHER EAST WITH WAVE. SOMETHING
TO WATCH AS POPS MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TO THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES
IF MODELS KEEP NUDGING THIS SYSTEM FURTHER WEST.
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU TAF PERIOD WITH SCT MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS. SFC WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST/NORTHWEST BY LATE
MORNING INTO THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AROUND
SUNSET.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...MOHR
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...DORN
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
1111 PM CST WED MAR 7 2012
.UPDATE...
LATEST RUC DATA INDICATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NOT AS LIKELY
FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT AS WE WERE THINKING. WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING TONIGHT...I DECIDED NOT TO REMOVE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS COMPLETELY FROM THE TONIGHT GRIDS. I JUST
DECREASED POPS TO 20 PERCENT MAX WITH MAINLY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. I ALSO ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
TONIGHT TO BRING THEM IN LINE WITH SATELLITE TRENDS AND THE LATEST
RUC DATA. THE LATEST ZONE PRODUCT REFLECTS THESE CHANGES.
OTHERWISE...ALL LOOKS ON TRACK.
HUBER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 528 PM CST WED MAR 7 2012/
AVIATION...
/00Z UPDATE/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EVENING WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND
20KT. AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH INTO WEST CENTRAL TEXAS AFTER
MIDNIGHT...CEILINGS WILL DEGRADE TO MVFR AND SHOULD REMAIN MVFR AT
ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL VEER
TO THE NORTH AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE...AROUND 15Z AT THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS...AROUND 19Z AT THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS. NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL GUST TO AROUND 25KT IN THE WAKE OF FRONTAL PASSAGE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 60 67 38 50 40 / 20 30 40 30 30
SAN ANGELO 63 74 40 52 38 / 20 20 40 30 30
JUNCTION 62 74 45 54 41 / 10 20 50 40 40
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
HUBER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
533 PM CST FRI MAR 9 2012
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
332 PM CST FRI MAR 9 2012
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE UNSEASONABLY MILD/BREEZY CONDITIONS
SATURDAY...THEN RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.
SURFACE MAP THIS AFTERNOON HAS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED DIRECTLY OVER
THE FORECAST AREA RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES. FAIRLY CHILLY CONDITIONS
DESPITE FULL SUNSHINE WITH TEMPERATURES AT 2 PM RANGING FROM THE
MIDDLE 20S TO MIDDLE 30S. ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH AND IN
ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS...A FAIRLY
THICK VEIL OF MID/HIGH CLOUD EXISTED ACROSS EASTERN ND INTO CENTRAL
MN...ADVANCING EASTWARD TOWARD THE AREA.
09.12Z NCEP MODELS/ 09.09Z SREF SHOWING VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM.
FOR TONIGHT...THE WARM FRONT ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVANCE EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...EXITING EAST BY DAYBREAK.
AFFECTS OF THE WARM FRONT WILL BE FAIRLY DENSE ALTOCUMULUS FIELD
MAINLY NORTH OF I-90. OTHERWISE...WILL LIKELY SEE A BRIEF/SMALL DOWNWARD
DIP IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH MIDNIGHT...THEN A SLOW RISE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT/SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE
AREA INCREASES. LOOK FOR LOWS THIS EVENING IN THE LOWER 20S TO
AROUND 30...CLIMBING INTO THE MID 20S TO MIDDLE 30S BY SUNRISE.
SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE A SUNNY/UNSEASONABLY MILD AND BREEZY DAY AS THE
AREA BECOMES ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM SECTOR OF DEEP LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS ONTARIO CANADA. NAM BUFKIT SOUNDING MIXING TO AROUND
925MB THROUGH SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES AT THAT LEVEL WARMING INTO
THE 9-12C RANGE. THIS IS EXPECTED TO YIELD SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN
THE MIDDLE 50S IN THE SNOW PACK AREA ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA. IN
ADDITION...BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOWING STRONG WINDS ALOFT//ABOVE
925MB// OF 50+ KT. LUCKILY WITH A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
INDICATED...MIXING SHOULD BE LIMITED TO 925MB WHICH WOULD YIELD WIND
GUST IN FULL MIXING TO 30-40 MPH RANGE.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF SUNDAY FOR DRY CONDITIONS. MODEL RH FIELDS
SHOW AN INCREASE IN HIGH/MID CLOUDS THROUGH SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF A
MID-LEVEL CLOSED LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE NAM/GFS WANTS TO
BRING SOME -RA INTO NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHEAST MN/FAR SOUTHWEST WI LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON WHILE THE ECMWF/GEM WANT TO MAINTAIN A DRY
FORECAST. CAN SEE SOME VIRGA/FEW RAIN DROPS REACHING THE
SURFACE...SO WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF -RA ACROSS THAT AREA
FOR NOW.
GFS/NAM SHOW THE 925-850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASING
SIGNIFICANTLY INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE MID-LEVEL LOW LIFTS
OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
REGION. NAM/GFS ALSO SHOW PRECIPITABLE WATERS INCREASING TO 250-300
PERCENT ABOVE NORMAL AS GULF MOISTURE TAP GOES UNIMPEDED. THIS WILL
RAPIDLY SATURATE THE COLUMN FOR WIDESPREAD LIGHT-MODERATE RAINFALL.
RAIN APPEARS TO LAST THROUGH MONDAY AS THE LOW LIFTS ACROSS WI INTO
UPPER MICHIGAN. COULD SEE SOME TAPERING OFF IN THE SOUTHWEST
//ACROSS NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHEAST MN// IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW
LIFTS NORTHEAST. THE MID-LEVEL LOW THEN WEAKENS/FILLS AS IT LIFTS
NORTHEAST INTO ONTARIO MONDAY EVENING. THIS SHOULD BRING AN END TO
THE RAIN CHANCES BY 06Z TUESDAY.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
332 PM CST FRI MAR 9 2012
09.12Z GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE THE UNSEASONABLY MILD WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH THE PERIOD. GEFS STILL INDICATING AROUND +2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS WHICH INDICATES NEAR RECORD VALUES FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE 60S/LOWER 70S. MAIN CONCERN/FLY IN THE
OINTMENT WILL BE A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS. ECMWF SHOWING NEAR 1500J/KG OF 0-3KM
MUCAPE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH RESPECTABLE AMOUNT OF SHEAR.
WILL THEREFORE HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS FOR SEVERE
POTENTIAL. APPEARS BEST THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE SOUTHEAST OF A
LINE FROM NECEDAH AND VIROQUA WISCONSIN...TO FAYETTE IA.
HOWEVER...DUE TO POSSIBILITY OF A STRONG CAP/TIMING OF FRONT...KEPT
POPS LOW AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
533 PM CST FRI MAR 9 2012
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE INTO LOWER MICHIGAN
TONIGHT...WHILE SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN TO THE AREA ON ITS
BACKSIDE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AND SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE AT
BOTH TAF SITES. 09.21Z RUC BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWING 2000 FOOT
WINDS OF 45 TO 50 KNOTS AFTER 07Z AT KLSE AND 50 TO 55 KNOTS AT
KRST. DID CONTINUE TO MENTION LLWS AT BOTH SITES AS BOTH
DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED SHEAR SHOULD BE PRESENT WITH LIGHTER WIND AT
THE SURFACE. AS WINDS MIX DOWN AFTER 14Z SATURDAY WILL SEE SOME GUSTS
OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS AT KLSE AND 30 TO 35 KNOTS AT KRST. OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
332 PM CST FRI MAR 9 2012
A DEEP SNOW PACK OF 3 TO AS MUCH AS 15 INCHES REMAINS ON THE GROUND
ACROSS TAYLOR COUNTY. ESTIMATED SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS RANGE FROM A
HALF OF AN INCH UP TO 2 INCHES. THE COMBINATION OF WARM TEMPERATURES
AND EXPECTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO A HALF OF AN INCH FROM SUNDAY
EVENING THROUGH MONDAY...WILL CAUSE RIVERS...STREAMS AND CREEKS TO
RISE THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN RIVER TRIBUTARIES
IMPACTED BY THE RUNOFF FROM THE SNOW MELT AND RAINFALL WILL BE
MAINLY ALONG THE TREMPEALEAU AND BLACK RIVERS. SOME SITES ALONG THE
IMPACTED RIVERS MAY RISE TO FLOOD STAGE...PARTICULARLY IF ANY HEAVY
RAINFALL OCCURS SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
332 PM CST FRI MAR 9 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...RABERDING
HYDROLOGY...DTJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
404 AM EST SAT MAR 10 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EST SAT MAR 10 2012
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW PROGRESSIVE UPR
FLOW ACROSS NAMERICA WITH DEPARTING UPR TROF/COLD AIRMASS OVER
QUEBEC DOWNSTREAM OF ZONAL FLOW FM WRN CAN INTO NW ONTARIO. 12Z-24Z
H3 RISES OVER 200M FM NW ONTARIO INTO THE GREAT LAKES INDICATE THE
COLD AIR TO THE E IS RETREATING. 00Z H85 TEMPS RANGED FM -24C AT
MOOSONEE ONTARIO TO -15C AT YPL...-14C AT GRB...AND -9C AT INL TO A
BALMY 10C AT BISMARCK AND 12C AT GLASGOW MONTANA WITHIN DOWNSLOPED
PACIFIC AIRMASS IN THE NRN PLAINS. A BAND OF MID CLDS STRETCHING FM
NW ONTARIO INTO MN/UPR MI AND WI ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAD IN THE
SW FLOW BTWN SFC HI PRES OVER LOWER MI AND LO PRES EMBEDDED IN THE
ZONAL FLOW AND NW OF LK WINNIPEG. THE AREAL EXTENT OF THIS MID CLD
IS BEST DEPICTED BY THE HIER RH SHOWN ON THE NAM 285-290K ISENTROPIC
SFCS /H8-65/. BUT SINCE THE 00Z INL RAOB SHOWS A VERY DRY SFC-H85
LYR BLO THE MID LVL MSTR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAD...THERE HAS BEEN
NO PCPN UNDER THE CLD BAND. AWAY FM THE MAIN BAND OF
WESTERLIES...THERE IS A CUTOFF LO OVER THE DESERT SW WITHIN THE
SUBTROPICAL BRANCH.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EST SAT MAR 10 2012
TODAY...AS THE COLD AIR TO THE E CONTINUES TO RETREAT...THE WAD MID
CLD WL SHIFT STEADILY TO THE E PER THE NAM FCST RH ON THE 285-290K
SFCS. DESPITE THE DRYNESS OF THE LLVLS SHOWN ON THE INL/GRB RAOBS...
SOME GUIDANCE DOES GENERATE LGT QPF OVER THE NE HALF OF THE CWA THIS
MRNG UNDER THE SHARPER ISENTROPIC ASCENT. OPTED TO RETAIN SCHC POPS
FOR THIS AREA EARLY. THE BACK EDGE OF THE HIER RH IS PROGGED TO
CLEAR ERY ARND 15Z. THE INCOMING WARM AIR IS FCST TO PUSH H85 TEMPS
BY 00Z SUN TO 8-10C OVER THE W TO 4-6C OVER THE E. ALTHOUGH THERE
MAY BE SOME HI CLDS... THE EXCESSIVE DRYNESS SHOWN ON THE BISMARCK
RAOB SUGS THERE WL BE NO LO CLDS. THERE WL BE A GUSTY S WIND THIS
MRNG UNDER H925 WINDS FCST UP TO 40-50KTS ON THE SRN FLANK OF PRES
FALL PASSING OVER LK SUP. SINCE THE LLVL FLOW IS FCST TO VEER MORE
TO THE W THRU THE DAY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A SFC WARM FNT...
PREFER TO TREND MAX TEMPS TOWARD THE WARMER GFS MOS. IN FACT...
MIXING TO JUST H9 ON THE GFS FCST SDNGS YIELDS HI TEMPS PEAKING IN
THE 50S OVER MUCH OF THE W HALF OF THE CWA...SEVERAL DEGREES HIER
THAN SHOWN BY THE MOS FCST. A MORE PERSISTENT SW LLVL FLOW OVER THE
E CLOSER TO THE DEPARTING COLD AIR AND BLOWING OFF THE COOL WATERS
OF LK MI WL HOLD TEMPS IN THE 40S IN THAT AREA. THE MORE WLY FLOW WL
ALSO KEEP THE KEWEENAW A BIT COOLER. GOING FCST HI TEMPS NEED LTL
ADJUSTMENT.
TNGT...UNDER BLDG UPR RDG...THE PRES GRADIENT IS FCST TO SLACKEN
QUITE A BIT...ALLOWING FOR MUCH LIGHTER WINDS. UNDER A MOCLR SKY...
EXPECT A HEALTHY DIURNAL TEMP FALL...WITH TEMPS FALLING TOWARD THE
LO END OF GUIDANCE GIVEN THE DRYNESS OF THE BISMARCK RAOB.
SUN...EXPECT ANOTHER MOSUNNY...WARM DAY WITH UPR RDG OVHD AND H85
TEMPS ARND 8C. SOME HI CLDS WL ARRIVE FM THE SW LATER IN THE DAY IN
ADVANCE OF UPR LO LIFTING OUT FM THE DESERT SW. MIXING TO JUST H9 ON
GFS FCST SDNGS WOULD RESULT IN HI TEMPS PEAKING NEAR 60 OVER AT
LEAST THE INTERIOR W HALF. BUT IN CONTRAST WITH TDAY THOUGH...THE
PRES GRADIENT WL BE RATHER WEAK...ALLOWING FOR LK BREEZE FORMATION/
COOLING NEAR THE SHORES. WITH THE PREVAILING SW FLOW...AREAS OVER
THE E DOWNWIND OF LK MI WL BE COOLER AS WELL.
SUN NGT...EXPECT THICKENING CLDS AS NEGATIVELY TILTED SHRTWV APRCHS
FM THE SW. THE EVNG WL BE DRY WITH LINGERING LLVL DRY AIR...BUT
ARRIVAL OF DEEPER MSTR/UPR DVGC IN EXIT REGION OF SUPPORTING H3 JET
MAX/H85-7 FGEN AFT 06Z WL BRING THE THREAT OF RA IN FM THE SW. THERE
ARE NO PTYPE WORRIES WITH THIS EVENT GIVEN UNSEASONABLE WARMTH OF
THE AIRMASS. ALTHOUGH INITIAL DRYNESS OF THE LLVLS WL INHIBIT FOG
FORMATION... LLVL MSTR SURGE FCST AFT 06Z WL BRING IN SOME FOG OVER
MELTING SN PACK...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OVER THE CNTRL THAT UPSLOPE
WITH LLVL SE WIND.
.LONG TERM...(MODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EST SAT MAR 10 2012
UPPER LOW PULLING OUT OF THE SW STATES TONIGHT WILL APPROACH THE
AREA ON SUN NIGHT AND CROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON MON. AT THE
SFC...BROAD TROUGH FROM A LOW CENTERED OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES
WILL PUSH NE ACROSS THE AREA ON MON. MODELS SEEM TO HAVE COME INTO
DECENT AGREEMENT ON TIMING/TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW...WHICH LEADS TO
ABOVE NORMAL CONF ON PCPN TIMING.
MAIN PCPN OUT AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED WITH THE BEST
H925-700 WAA AND 290-300K ISENTROPIC ASCENT MOVES NE ACROSS THE CWA
LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING THE BULK OF
THE PCPN WITH THE SYSTEM. COULD SEE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE LATE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTN AS MID LVL DRY AIR PUSHES THROUGH BEFORE THE
UPPER LOW MOVES OVERHEAD IN THE AFTN AND INCREASES MOISTURE AGAIN.
THIS PRODUCES ANOTHER SURGE OF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WRN
HALF OF THE CWA. POTENTIAL STORMS OVER THE CNTRL/SRN MISS VALLEY
WILL LIKELY KEEP SOME OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE FROM MAKING IT INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LKS. BUT THE WARM/MOIST AIR FROM THE GULF WILL PRODUCE
PWATS NEAR 300 PERCENT OF NORMAL WITH THE WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW. THUS...EXPECT AROUND 0.2-0.3IN OF RAIN WITH
THE INITIAL SURGE OF WAA. FELT THE EXISTING POPS IN THE DEFINITE
CATEGORY WERE GOOD FOR THE MORNING AND JUST TRIED TO ADD SOME
ADDITIONAL TIMING FOR THE DRY SLOT TOWARDS MID DAY AND BETTER
CHANCES OVER THE W IN THE AFTN.
WITH THE MELTING SNOW...RAIN...AND ABUNDANT LLVL MOISTURE...WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION AREAS OF FOG FOR MON MORN. BUT HAVE TAPERED IT
OFF HEADING INTO THE AFTN...AS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWING LLVL MIXING
DIMINISHING THE POTENTIAL. DID LEAVE THE FOG IN OVER THE E WITH THE
SW FLOW AND WARM/MOIST AIR OVER LK MI...MAINLY E OF A LINE FROM
MUNISING TO ESCANABA.
MON NIGHT...WITH SFC TROUGH AND UPPER LOW QUICKLY MOVING NE ON MON
NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL START TO EDGE INTO THE AREA
OVERNIGHT MON FROM SRN MN. WILL LIKELY STILL SEE SOME WRAP AROUND
SHOWERS IN THE EVENING FROM THE UPPER LOW ENERGY...BUT WILL DIMINISH
FROM SW TO NE WITH THE UPPER LOW QUICKLY MOVING NE. THIS QUICK
MOVEMENT...ALONG WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE...WILL LEAD TO A SHARP
CLEARING LINE MOVING IN OVERNIGHT. ONE ITEM OF NOTE IS THE NAM
SHOWING LLVL MOISTURE BELOW THE DEVELOPING INVERSION AT 2.5KFT.
COULD LEAD TO SOME LINGERING FOG OR LOW CLOUDS BEHIND THE EXITING
UPPER LOW. GFS IS NOT AS PRONOUNCED AND WITH THE NAM TENDING TO
OVERDO LLVL MOISTURE...WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE FCST AT THIS TIME.
DAYS 4 THROUGH 7 /TUES THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFYING OVER THE CENTRAL/ERN CONUS WILL LEAD TO A
WARM/DRY DAY ON TUES AS A SFC HIGH SLIDES ACROSS THE CWA. COULD LEAD
TO SOME LK BREEZES DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE SFC RIDGE MOVING
THROUGH. BUT AT THIS FAR OUT...WILL NOT TRY TO GET TOO FANCY ON
TEMPS/WINDS ALONG LK SUPERIOR. AS FOR HIGHS...MIXING TOWARDS
H875 YIELDS HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 ALONG THE WI BORDER.
HAVE KEPT TEMPS IN THE 40S NEAR GRAND MARAIS...WHERE NW WINDS OFF LK
SUPERIOR WILL LINGER INTO THE EARLY AFTN HRS AND LIMIT WARMING.
HIGH SHIFTS E TUES NIGHT AND WED. SHORTWAVE IN THE NRN STREAM
UPPER FLOW RUNNING FROM THE PAC NW TO HUDSON BAY WILL SWEEP A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON WED AFTN. MAIN ENERGY FROM THE
SHORTWAVE AND THE COLD FRONT REMAINS WELL NNW OF THE AREA IN NRN
ONTARIO. THIS...COMBINED WITH LIMITED MID LVL MOISTURE...THINK THE
PCPN CHANCES ARE LOW. BUT...DID LEAVE SLIGHT CHANCES OVER THE SE
HALF OF THE CWA...AS ECMWF/GEM/GFS TRY TO PULL MLCAPE VALUES
TOWARDS 200 J/KG. ML LAPSE RATES ARE FAIRLY STRONG...AROUND
7-8C/KM...BUT THE MID LVL DRY AIR AND CAP NEAR H850 WILL LIKELY
KEEP DEVELOPMENT FROM OCCURRING. BEST CHANCES WILL BE S OF THE
CWA...IN THE SE HALF OF WI...BUT FELT KEEPING THE SLIGHT CHANCES IN
NEAR THE WI BORDER WAS REASONABLE. MIXING AGAIN TO NEAR H875 /9C/ ON
WED WILL PRODUCE HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 60S AWAY FROM THE COOLER FLOW
OFF LK MI. STRONGER SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL LIMIT
CONCERNS OF COOLING DUE TO LK BREEZES NEAR LK SUPERIOR. THIS SWRLY
FLOW WILL LIKELY LEAD TO DOWNSLOPE WARMING NEAR LK SUPERIOR...SO
HAVE BUMPED TEMPS UP SOME IN THOSE AREAS.
COLD FRONT SLIDES E ON WED NIGHT AND COULD LEAD TO A SLIGHT COOL
DOWN ON THURS. ECMWF/GEM KEEP IT WARM IN THE 50/60S WHILE THE GFS
HAS IN THE 40S. HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS THE WARMER ECMWF...SINCE IT
TRADITIONAL PERFORMS MUCH BETTER IN WELL ABOVE NORMAL PATTERNS AND
DUE TO THE COLD BIAS OF THE GFS. THUS...HAVE TEMPS IN THE
50S...EXCEPT OVER THE KEWEENAW AND NEAR LK SUPERIOR OVER THE NCTNRL
AND E...WHERE LIGHT WINDS OFF LK SUPERIOR WILL KEEP TEMPS COOLER.
OTHERWISE...UPPER RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE WARM/DRY WX FOR THE UPPER GREAT LKS. MODELS
ARE TRYING TO SHOW THE UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL HAVE BEEN STATIONED IN
THE PACIFIC OFF THE W COAST OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS TO TRY AND MOVE
INLAND THIS WEEKEND...AMPLIFYING THE RIDGE EVEN FURTHER. AS THIS
TROUGH CONTINUES E NEXT WEEK...COULD SEE A TRANSITION TO A LITTLE
MORE ACTIVE WX AND MORE NORMAL TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1226 AM EST SAT MAR 10 2012
IN THE WAKE OF SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE QUICKLY EXITING TO THE E...
RAPIDLY DEVELOPING WAA REGIME IS LEADING TO A BAND OF MID CLOUDS
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. SINCE LOW-LEVELS WILL REMAIN DRY...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THIS FCST PERIOD.
OTHERWISE...S WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT UNDER
SHARPENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BTWN THE DEPARTING HIGH PRES RIDGE AND
A LOW PRES SYSTEM MOVING THRU SCNTRL CANADA. NOCTURNAL INVERSION
SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO RESULT IN LLWS...ESPECIALLY AT SAW/CMX.
WITH IWD MORE EXPOSED TO S WINDS...LLWS MAY OCCUR THERE AT TIMES IN
BETWEEN GUSTY PERIODS. GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES DURING
THE MORNING. HIGHEST GUSTS...AROUND 35KT...SHOULD OCCUR AT KSAW
UNDER FAVORABLE S WIND. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLOWLY FROM W TO E IN
THE AFTN...WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED BY EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EST SAT MAR 10 2012
EXPECT A S GALE UP TO 40 KTS OVER THE E HALF OF LK SUP INTO THIS
AFTERNOON UNDER TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN DEPARTING HI PRES
TO THE SE AND LO PRES MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THE ARRIVAL OF
A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CAUSE DIMINISHING WINDS LATER TODAY
THRU SUN.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
ON MONDAY AND EXIT ON MONDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
TO MOVE OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY. WINDS DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD
STAY BELOW 25KTS. A COLD FRONT FROM A LOW IN NRN ONTARIO WILL BRUSH
THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT
SHOULD PRODUCE WINDS IN THE 20-25KT RANGE. THINK THE MARINE LAYER
WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER WINDS ALOFT TO REACH THE SFC.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EST SAT MAR 10 2012
LITTLE HAS CHANGED ON THE HYDROLOGY FRONT OVER THE LAST COUPLE
DAYS. STILL EXPECT WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS OVER THE NEXT 7
DAYS...WHICH WILL TAKE A SIGNIFICANT BITE OUT OF THE SNOW PACK...IF
NOT EATING ALL OF IT.
TRADITIONALLY NEED ABOUT 2 DAYS OF TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-UPPER 40S
OR ABOVE AND TD/S ABOVE FREEZING TO RIPEN THE SNOWPACK. WARM TEMPS
EARLIER THIS WEEK DID JUST THAT OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH THE
COOL DOWN OVER THE LAST TWO DAYS HELPED SLOW/END THE MELT.
THUS...WITH THE TEMPS THIS WEEKEND EXPECTED TO EXCEED THAT...SHOULD
EASILY HAVE A RIPE SNOWPACK FOR MELTING THIS WEEKEND. THE RIPE
SNOWPACK WILL BE AIDED BY RAIN EXPECTED LATE SUN NIGHT AND INTO
MON...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE BETWEEN 0.25-0.40IN OF
PRECIPITATION. THEREFORE...EXPECT TO SEE RIVERS START TO RISE
SUN INTO MON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEK UNTIL THE SNOW IS
MELTED. OVERNIGHT LOWS DON/T LOOK TO GET BELOW FREEZING AFTER
TONIGHT...SO SHOULD SEE A FAIRLY STEADY MELT. WILL LIKELY SEE SNOW
PACK GONE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA BY THE END OF THIS WEEK...EXCEPT FOR
WOODED/SHADED LOCATIONS.
WITH THIS FAIRLY FAST MELT AND RUNOFF...EXPECT SOME OF THE RIVERS
ACROSS THE AREA TO EXCEED THEIR BANKS BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
PERSONS LIVING NEAR RIVERS AND STREAMS SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST
RIVER CONDITIONS AND USE CAUTION IF WALKING ALONG RIVER
BANKS...ESPECIALLY THE CHOCOLAY RIVER...TRAP ROCK
RIVER...AND THE STURGEON RIVER IN WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN.
FINALLY...NOT MUCH ICE HAS BEEN NOTED BY OBSERVERS ON THE FASTER
FLOWING RIVERS OVER NRN UPPER MI. BUT THE FORD RIVER...BOTH AT HYDE
AND THE MOUTH AT LK MI...STILL HAS A GOOD ICE COVER THAT LEADS TO
SOME CONCERN FOR ICE JAM POTENTIAL WITH THE FASTER RUNOFF. ALTHOUGH
LIMITED SNOW WAS NOTED NEAR LK MI...THERE IS STILL 5-10IN OF SNOW
AND NOHRSC ESTIMATED AROUND 1.5IN OF LIQUID TOWARDS THE HEADWATERS
THAT WILL MELTED OVER THE COMING DAYS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ249>251-266-
267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ248-250.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ221.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KC
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...ROLFSON/KC
MARINE...KC
HYDROLOGY...SRF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
336 AM CST SAT MAR 10 2012
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY. MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS
WILL BE FIRE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON...A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND TEMPERATURES.
WARM DRY AIR CONTINUES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING WITH
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS. THE WARM START TO THE DAY...PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE AND WARM ADVECTION WILL HAVE UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE AREA FOR TODAY. BY THIS AFTERNOON THE FIRST SIGNS OF AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL SHOW UP WITH THE ARRIVAL OF SOME
CLOUDS. TONIGHT THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE AREA AND
WITH THE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA THERE COULD BE SOME
SHOWERS STARTING IN THE SOUTH THIS EVENING AND SPREADING NORTH
THROUGH THE NIGHT.
ON SUNDAY THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA
ON SUNDAY...AND SLOWLY DIMINISHES SUNDAY NIGHT FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST DURING THE NIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES TO THE
NORTHEAST. WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AROUND TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER ON SUNDAY.
WARM ADVECTION AND DRY AIR RETURNS TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. A WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA AND WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHTER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN.
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL ON MONDAY.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
FORECAST PERIOD. THE RESULTANT LACK IN KINEMATIC FORCING WILL
PRESENT A DRY FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS OF AN APPROACHING MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BRINGING
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA TOWARDS THE END OF THE
CURRENT LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD...AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ARE IN
PLACE ACROSS ROUGHLY THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA FOR FRIDAY
AS A RESULT. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A WEAK LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC
ZONE CLEARING THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...LOW LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH THROUGHOUT LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD...THUS PRESENTING CONTINUED LOW LEVEL WAA AND TEMPERATURES
WHICH ARE WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...DRY AIR IS ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY. AS TEMPERATURES WARM UP THIS AFTERNOON EXPECT RELATIVE
HUMIDITY TO DROP OFF ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED
TO RETURN TO THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND SHOULD KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITIES A LITTLE HIGHER. WINDS WILL BE
FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND SHOULD REACH 20 MPH DURING THE
DAY. WILL GO WITH A RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE NORTHERN COUNTIES FOR
THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 PM CST FRI MAR 9 2012/
AVIATION...06Z KGRI TAF. VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARDS THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD...BUT CEILINGS SHOULD HOLD OFF AT THE TERMINAL
UNTIL AFTER 11/06Z AND WILL LEAVE ANY MENTION OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS
OUT OF THE TAF FOR THE TIME BEING AS A RESULT. RUC ANALYSIS...LAPS AND
VWP FROM KUEX ALL INDICATE A SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET STREAK OF
40-45KTS EXISTING JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER AT AROUND 1000FT
AGL. ALTHOUGH SURFACE WINDS ARE ALSO SOMEWHAT STRONG...ENOUGH OF AN
INCREASE IN WIND SPEED EXISTS BETWEEN THE SURFACE AND 1000FT AGL THUS
JUSTIFYING THE INSERTION OF LLWS INTO THE TAF. SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS LOW LEVEL JET WILL REMAIN INTACT THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NIGHT...WITH LLWS ALSO REMAINING POSSIBLE UNTIL THE
BOUNDARY LAYER DEEPENS DURING THE DAY DAY SATURDAY THUS ALLOWING
FOR STRONGER WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND DIMINISHMENT OF LLWS.
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THE TERMINAL THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ039>041-046>049.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1126 PM CST FRI MAR 9 2012
.AVIATION...06Z KGRI TAF. VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARDS THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD...BUT CEILINGS SHOULD HOLD OFF AT THE TERMINAL
UNTIL AFTER 11/06Z AND WILL LEAVE ANY MENTION OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS
OUT OF THE TAF FOR THE TIME BEING AS A RESULT. RUC ANALYSIS...LAPS AND
VWP FROM KUEX ALL INDICATE A SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET STREAK OF
40-45KTS EXISTING JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER AT AROUND 1000FT
AGL. ALTHOUGH SURFACE WINDS ARE ALSO SOMEWHAT STRONG...ENOUGH OF AN
INCREASE IN WIND SPEED EXISTS BETWEEN THE SURFACE AND 1000FT AGL THUS
JUSTIFYING THE INSERTION OF LLWS INTO THE TAF. SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS LOW LEVEL JET WILL REMAIN INTACT THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NIGHT...WITH LLWS ALSO REMAINING POSSIBLE UNTIL THE
BOUNDARY LAYER DEEPENS DURING THE DAY DAY SATURDAY THUS ALLOWING
FOR STRONGER WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND DIMINISHMENT OF LLWS.
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THE TERMINAL THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 604 PM CST FRI MAR 9 2012/
UPDATE...RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 6 PM AS
WINDS WILL BECOME LESS GUSTY THIS EVENING...AND RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL INCREASE AS TEMPERATURES FALL WITH SUNSET.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CST FRI MAR 9 2012/
SHORT TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE LEAST PLEASANT DAY OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WILL LIKELY BE ON SUNDAY WITH A SLOW MOVING
CLOSED OFF UPPER LOW TRACKING ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUD COVER AND AT LEAST A CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS ON SUNDAY. IN ADDITION...SUNDAY AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE LOWER 50S...WHICH IS STILL
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...BUT MUCH COOLER THAN WHAT WE
WILL BE SEEING THE REST OF THE WEEK.
MONDAY...THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE AREA
BY MONDAY AND WARM WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP. MONDAY HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE VERY NICE RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S TO THE
LOWER 70S.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...DRY AND VERY MILD CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
OUR AREA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF FAIRLY WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT.
FRIDAY...THIS WILL MORE THAN LIKELY BE A DRY DAY...BUT THERE HAVE
BEEN A FEW MODEL RUNS THAT HAVE HINTED AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERAL DAYS OF LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW
MAY EVENTUALLY ALLOW FOR ENOUGH MOISTURE TO SQUEAK OUT A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR WEAK THUNDERSTORMS. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN
FLIPPING BACK AND FORTH ON FRIDAY PRECIP CHANCES WITH THE LATEST
12Z RUN INDICATING DRY CONDITIONS. CONFIDENCE ON PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FOR FRIDAY ARE FAIRLY LOW AND WILL JUST BE GOING WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE.
LONG TERM...TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN LIES
WITH TEMPERATURES AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TOMORROW.
UPPER LEVEL PROFILER AND SATELLITE DATA SHOWING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH A TROUGH SHIFTING EAST THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SET UP OVER THE NM/AZ
BORDER. LITTLE/NO CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE CWA...AND LOOKING AT THE
SURFACE PATTERN...THE CWA SITS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
THE MN/WI/IA BORDER AREA...AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING
SOUTH THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
INCREASED MIXING HAS BROUGHT GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH SPEEDS BETWEEN 15 AND 25 MPH AND GUSTS ANYWHERE
FROM 20 TO 30 MPH. THE MIXING HAS ALSO ALLOWED FOR QUITE A DROP IN
DEWPOINTS...AND COMBINED WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 60S...LED TO FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS. AREA SITTING IN THE RED FLAG WARNING WORKING OUT
PRETTY MUCH AS EXPECTED...AND LOCATIONS TO THE SOUTH ARE SEEING
SLIGHTLY LOWER WINDS.
THROUGH THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS. MODELS NOT SHOWING
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES...THE SWRN CONUS UPPER LEVEL LOW DOESNT MAKE
MUCH PROGRESS...00Z SUNDAY IS ONLY SHIFTED INTO SCENTRAL NM.
EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD...AS
SHORTWAVE RIDGING SETS UP ACROSS THE PLAINS AHEAD OF THE LOW. THE
EXCEPTION IS LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WHERE SOME MODELS CONTINUE
TO HINT THAT PRECIPITATION STREAMING NORTH AHEAD OF THE LOW
MANAGES TO CREEP INTO THE SRN 3 COUNTIES...SO KEPT THE LOW POPS
GOING.
EXPECTING ANOTHER BREEZY AFTERNOON...MIXING POTENTIAL ISNT QUITE
AS GOOD TOMORROW...AN EVEN TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOKS TO
SET UP AS LOW PRESSURE SLIDES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. RAISED WIND
SPEEDS INTO THE 20 TO 25 MPH RANGE...AND HIGHER GUSTS WILL
POSSIBLE. MODELS HAVE NOT DONE THE BEST WITH DEWPOINTS THE LAST
FEW DAYS...SO ITS HARD TO PUT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE INTO THEM FOR
TOMORROW...AND DID DROP THEM A FEW DEGREES. WITH ANOTHER DAY OF
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND CURRENT FORECAST DEWPOINTS AND
WINDS...FIRE WEATHER WILL AGAIN BE A CONCERN TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES FOR NOW WITH RH VALUES
REMAINING ABOVE THAT 20 PERCENT MARK...BUT IT WILL BE SOMETHING
FOR THE MID SHIFT TO CLOSELY WATCH. WOULDNT TAKE MUCH OF AN UPWARD
SHIFT IN TEMPS OR DOWNWARD SHIFT IN DEWPOINTS TO REACH CRITICAL
LEVELS.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...BRYANT
SHORT TERM...ADO
LONG TERM...WESELY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
1252 AM EST SAT MAR 10 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PRODUCE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO INTO EARLY THIS MORNING. DRY...COLD
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER WILL
RETURN ON SUNDAY... WITH SEVERAL DAYS OF WARM WEATHER EXPECTED
THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AT 930 PM...LOCAL RADARS SHOW WIDELY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE TWIN TIERS WITH WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY IN ONEIDA, MADISON AND
ONONDAGA COUNTIES. THE ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO DIMINISH IN BOTH
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY DUE TO LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING EXCEPT FOR
THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NRN CWA. SATELLITE SHOWS A
GEORGIAN BAY CONNECTION WHICH IS ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY. LOWERING
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND VEERING LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE THE ACTIVITY SOUTH WHILE IT WEAKENS. FOR NOW, INCREASED POPS TO
CATEGORICAL ACROSS MUCH OF ONEIDA/MADISON AND ONONDAGA COUNTIES.
AFTER MIDNIGHT THE MORE PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWERS WILL RESIDE ACROSS
ONONDAGA, SOUTHERN CAYUGA, NORTHERN CORTLAND AND NORTHERN CHENANGO
COUNTIES. IN GENERAL TOTAL SNOW ACCUMS OVERNIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 2
TO 4 INCHES IN THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS.
.PREVIOUS DISC...
500 MB TROUGH AND VORTICITY MAX WILL TRACK ACROSS AND
EAST OF THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. WIDESPREAD
SNOW SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER SQUALLS WILL DIMINISH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING.
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP FROM CENTRAL
NEW ENGLAND WNW BACK TOWARD LAKE ONTARIO THIS EVENING IN RESPONSE
TO THE SHORT WAVE MOVING EAST FROM NY ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THAT TROUGH
ALONG WITH SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT WITH A FLOW FROM AROUND 290
DEGREES AND 850 MB TEMP FROM -10 TO -12 SHOULD HELP TO ORGANIZE
SNOW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKE IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY THIS
EVENING. VSBL SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GREAT
LAKES INDICATE THAT THE ATMOSPHERE IS CURRENTLY SUPPORTING SOME
WNW ORIENTED SNOW BANDS OVER MICHIGAN CURRENTLY... AND THESE
SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO OUR AREA THIS EVENING WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT
BY THE SURFACE TROUGH. SOUTH OF THESE BANDS EXPECT JUST A FEW
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. THIS SCENARIO IS SUPPORTED BY THE HIGH
RESOLUTION HRRR AND 4 KM NAM.
THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT SHIFTING TO
AROUND 320 TO 330 DEGREES AFTER MIDNIGHT. THAT SHOULD ALLOW SOME
LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS TO SHIFT SOUTH TOWARD THE FINGER LAKES
OVERNIGHT. OVERALL EXPECT SNOW AMOUNTS TONIGHT SOUTHEAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO TO BE LIGHT AS TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE MARGINALLY COLD
ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT... WINDS WILL NOT BE VERY STRONG AND THE
INVERSION WILL BE LOWERING. NIGHT-TIME ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 4
INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS PROBABLY IN THE HILLS
SOUTH SYRACUSE AND MOHAWK VALLEY. CONCERN WOULD BE FOR LOCALLY
HEAVIER AMOUNTS IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
SURFACE TROUGH... BUT EXPECT THAT THIS BAND WILL NOT ORGANIZE
EARLY ENOUGH TO PERSIST FOR LONG BEFORE IT SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH
WITH THE WIND SHIFT TO NORTHWEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
VERY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD. ANY FLURRIES
SOUTHEAST OF THE FINGER LAKES SHOULD DIMINISH BY NOON ON
SATURDAY... WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BY
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT BEFORE A LONG PERIOD OF WARM WEATHER. AFTER A CHILLY START
SUNDAY MORNING EXPECT SUNSHINE AND RAPIDLY WARMING TEMPERATURES
DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH ALL AREAS RECOVERING WELL INTO THE
50S... AND SOME LOWER 60S POSSIBLE OVER THE LAKE PLAIN.
NEXT CHC OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL BE MONDAY AS A CLOSED UPPER
LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARD THE GREAT
LAKES. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THIS SCENARIO ON MONDAY... ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY FARTHER
EAST WITH SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION. AT THIS POINT A LOW CHC POP
SHOULD COVER THINGS FOR MONDAY WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS OVER THE
WESTERN PART OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME
WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL 500MB
HEIGHTS AND MILD CONDITIONS.
TWO SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD. A SFC LOW WILL
MOVE FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO EASTERN CANADA. MODEL
CONSENSUS IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN YESTERDAY SO WILL INCLUDE CHC
POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS BOTH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOOKS DRY WITH BUILDING H5 HEIGHTS
AND SFC HIGH PRES IN THE VCNTY. A SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH EASTERN
CANADA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. GFS MUCH STRONGER WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL WAVE
THROUGH EASTERN CANADA AND RESULTING SFC LOW COMPARED TO THE
ECMWF. FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE WHICH LEANED TOWARD THE GFS.
INCLUDED CHC POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT,
FOLLOWED BY DRY WEATHER ON FRIDAY.
TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL MORE IN LINE
WITH LATE APRIL NORMALS, WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 40S AND HIGHS UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING...CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWER COVERAGE HAS
GREATLY DIMINISHED ACROSS NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND FAR SOUTHERN
NEW YORK. HOWEVER...FARTHER NORTH...LAKE ONTARIO SNOW SHOWERS ARE
AFFECTING KSYR-KRME CORRIDOR. AS THE WIND VEERS 06Z-
12Z...EXPECTING SPREAD OF MVFR CIGS WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR TO IFR
VIS FROM SNOW SHOWERS...AS THE LAKE EFFECT SHIFTS SOUTHWARD TO
INCLUDE MOST OF THE CENTRAL NEW YORK TERMINALS. EVEN KAVP...WHILE
STILL VFR...WILL AT LEAST SEE THE RETURN OF A BRIEF CIG. GUSTS
WILL STILL BE IN 15-22 KT RANGE DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS. SURFACE
HIGH WILL QUICKLY BUILD IN DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...YET MOISTURE
INITIALLY TRAPPED UNDER SUBSIDENCE INVERSION MAY MAKE CIGS A BIT
STUBBORN TO BREAK. HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT OVERALL 14Z-
18Z. WIND WILL ALSO BECOME VARIABLE THIS AFTERNOON...EVENTUALLY
SETTLING TO LIGHT SOUTHEAST OR SOUTH INTO TONIGHT ON BACK SIDE OF
DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE. VFR CONDITIONS AND SLACKENING WINDS ARE
FORECAST FOR SATURDAY.
.OUTLOOK...
SUN...VFR.
MON...MAINLY VFR. PSBL MVFR IN LATE DAY SHWRS.
TUE...VFR WITH PSBL MVFR IN -SHRA.
WED...VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...MSE/RRM
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...MDP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
302 AM EST SAT MAR 10 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN ON SUNDAY... AND CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER EASTERN MICHIGAN IS ARCING AROUND
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND SOUTH INTO VA/NC. DRIER AIR HAS
FILTERED IN THE THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...BUT
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE STILL LESS THAN 5 DEGREES ALONG AND EAST OF
I-95. SOME PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS HAVE DEVELOPED FROM FAYETTEVILLE
TO ROANOKE RAPIDS. THE HRRR MODEL APPEARS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON
THE CURRENT CONDITIONS...SHOWING THE STRATUS AND FOG EXPANDING
EASTWARD BUT ALSO ERODING FROM THE WEST AS DRIER AIR FINALLY PUSHES
INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN BY 12Z. AFTER SUNRISE...CLEAR SKIES WILL
PREVAIL AROUND THE REGION AS HEIGHTS BUILD ALOFT AND THE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. 1000-850MB
THICKNESSES AROUND 1318M SUPPORT HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW MOS
VALUES....WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN COOLER NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
TODAY...52 TO 57 NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST. OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING SHOULD OCCUR TONIGHT...WITH LOWS LIKELY DIPPING INTO THE
UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30S CWA-WIDE.
A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN SUNDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH WEAKENS AND
SLIPS SOUTH TO JUST OFF THE NC COAST. SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW
WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP...BUT THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL STILL BE
DRAPED ACROSS THE STATE...SO SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY
LIGHT AND VARIABLE. 1000-850MB THICKNESSES ARE FORECAST TO RISE 20M
TO AROUND 1340M...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN HIGHS REACHING TO LOWER
60S. INCREASING HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW EJECTING
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING CIRRUS INTO THE WESTERN CWA LATE
SUNDAY...LEADING TO PARTLY O MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT.
THIS COMBINED WITH INCREASING DEWPOINTS IN THE RETURN FLOW WILL KEEP
LOWS SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER...UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 255 AM SATURDAY...
FOR MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT: DEEP RIDGING STARTS OUT THE WORK WEEK...
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS AND
AN AMPLIFIED MID LEVEL RIDGE ORIENTED ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
THE LIGHT LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH AND THE
RESULTING UPWARD SURGE IN SURFACE DEW POINTS ALONG WITH THE STABLE
AIR IN THE LOWEST 1-2 KM WILL FOSTER DEVELOPMENT OF LOW STRATUS AND
FOG TO START THE DAY. THIS SHOULD MIX OUT BY MID MORNING DUE TO THE
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AS THE SURFACE HIGH CENTER SHIFTS FURTHER
OFF THE COAST. BUT ANY MORNING SUNSHINE WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS HIGH
CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY THICKEN WITH LOWERING BASES MONDAY AS THE CLOSED
LOW NOW OVER SE AZ MOVES NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH WI AND THE U.P. OF MI
INTO ERN ONTARIO. MODELS AGREE QUITE WELL ON RAPIDLY INCREASING
PRECIPITABLE WATER MONDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT AS THE MOIST AIR CURRENTLY
OVER THE NW GULF AND TX COAST (AS SEEN ON BLENDED TPW IMAGERY) GETS
DRAWN TO THE NORTH THEN NNE INTO NC... WITH PW VALUES OVER NC RISING
FROM NEAR NORMAL TO 200-250 PERCENT OF NORMAL IN JUST 12-18 HRS.
DESPITE THE IMPROVING MOISTURE... FORCING FOR ASCENT REMAINS MEAGER
AS THE TROUGH DAMPENS CONSIDERABLY WHILE TRACKING THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY... GENERATING SCANT DPVA. A CLIMATOLOGICALLY WEAK UPPER JET
OF 60-70 KTS OVER THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST AND NEW ENGLAND WILL
PROVIDE LITTLE TO NO UPPER DIVERGENCE IN ITS RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
OVER NC THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT... AND MOIST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IS ALSO
VERY WEAK TO NONEXISTENT AS THE WEAKENING LOW LEVEL JET GETS
DEFLECTED TO OUR NORTH. GIVEN THE HIGH INFLUX OF PW EXPECTED AND
BASED ON MODEL TIMING... BELIEVE WE MAY SEE SOME LIGHT PRECIP ON THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE MONDAY
NIGHT... BUT THE LACK OF FORCING AND THE SHIFT OF 850 MB WINDS TO
WESTERLY SUPPORTS LITTLE MORE THAN A CHANCE OF VERY LIGHT SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES. EXPECT SKIES AREAWIDE TO TREND TO MOSTLY CLOUDY MONDAY
AND CLOUDY MONDAY NIGHT. THICKNESSES AROUND 15 METERS ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERED BY CLOUD COVER SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70...
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW STATISTICAL GUIDANCE. WARM LOWS OF 50-54. -GIH
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 250 AM SATURDAY...
FOR TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER AIR WILL CONTINUE
TO ADVECT INTO NC... AND THE LATEST MODEL OUTPUT SUGGESTS THAT
PATCHY SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE
FRONT HOLDS JUST TO OUR NW. POLAR STREAM ENERGY DROPS INTO THE
DEAMPLIFYING TROUGH OVER THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER TUESDAY
MORNING... CAUSING A RESTRENGTHENING AND EVOLUTION INTO A CLOSED MID
LEVEL LOW OVER THE UPPER ST LAWRENCE BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT... AND
THIS AMPLIFICATION WILL BE AUGMENTED BY A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE
WHICH EASES THROUGH NC LATE TUESDAY. WHILE THIS INCREASINGLY
CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE NORTHEAST AND MIDATLANTIC REGION WILL HELP
PUSH THE SURFACE FRONT TO THE SSE THROUGH NC TUESDAY NIGHT... LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE IS APT TO BE SMALL GIVEN
THE DECREASING SURFACE WINDS. LIFT MECHANISMS ONCE AGAIN APPEAR TO
BE MINOR OR ABSENT... SO WILL KEEP POPS EARLY ON TUESDAY SMALL...
ENDING NW TO SE BY LATE IN THE DAY AS MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
NORTHWESTERLY AND THE MID-UPPER LEVELS START TO DRY OUT AND
STABILIZE. THICKNESSES INDICATE HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S... IN LINE
WITH THE EARLIER FORECAST HIGHS. LOWS ONCE AGAIN 50-54.
FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: MID LEVEL RIDGING ONCE AGAIN BUILDS
OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND CAROLINAS FROM THE WEST... AS THE ST
LAWRENCE LOW MOVES OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND AND CANADIAN
MARITIMES WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. MODELS
ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON THIS PATTERN WITH MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
THICKNESSES AND CONTINUED POSITIVE AO AND NAO... WHICH FAVORS WARM
WEATHER OVER NC. EACH MORNING`S LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES ARE 40-50
METERS ABOVE NORMAL WITH LITTLE DAY-TO-DAY CHANGE IN THE VERTICAL
THERMAL STRUCTURE... WHICH SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80
EACH DAY. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S. -GIH
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1240 AM SATURDAY...
SITES FROM KCTZ TO KIXA..MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-95.... ARE
REPORTING MVFR/IFR VSBYS WHERE DEWPOINTS HAVE YET TO BEGIN TO CRASH.
NEAR TERM MODEL GUIDANCE...NAMELY THE HRRR MODEL...SHOWS THIS AREA
EXPANDING THROUGH 09Z...THEN SHIFTING EASTWARD AS DRIER AIR AIR
ADVECTS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. KRWI AND KFAY WILL LIKELY BE ON THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE LOWER VSBYS FOR A FEW HOURS...THOUGH CONFIDENCE
IS HIGHER FOR KRWI WHERE VSBYS HAVE ALREADY DROPPED TO 3/4MI. VSBYS
MAY BOUNCE UP AND DOWN THROUGH 09Z...WITH IMPROVEMENT AFTERWARD.
CLEAR SKIES WITH NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND A FEW GUSTS TO NEAR 20KT IN
THE EAST ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY TODAY...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. -SMITH
THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY EVENING. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...THE RETURN FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE HIGH WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY MVFR CEILINGS. THE THREAT FOR MORNING STRATUS
MAY BE HIGHER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS. -KRR
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...SMITH/KRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
300 AM EST SAT MAR 10 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN ON SUNDAY... AND CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER EASTERN MICHIGAN IS ARCING AROUND
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND SOUTH INTO VA/NC. DRIER AIR HAS
FILTERED IN THE THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...BUT
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE STILL LESS THAN 5 DEGREES ALONG AND EAST OF
I-95. SOME PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS HAVE DEVELOPED FROM FAYETTEVILLE
TO ROANOKE RAPIDS. THE HRRR MODEL APPEARS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON
THE CURRENT CONDITIONS...SHOWING THE STRATUS AND FOG EXPANDING
EASTWARD BUT ALSO ERODING FROM THE WEST AS DRIER AIR FINALLY PUSHES
INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN BY 12Z. AFTER SUNRISE...CLEAR SKIES WILL
PREVAIL AROUND THE REGION AS HEIGHTS BUILD ALOFT AND THE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. 1000-850MB
THICKNESSES AROUND 1318M SUPPORT HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW MOS
VALUES....WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN COOLER NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
TODAY...52 TO 57 NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST. OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING SHOULD OCCUR TONIGHT...WITH LOWS LIKELY DIPPING INTO THE
UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30S CWA-WIDE.
A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN SUNDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH WEAKENS AND
SLIPS SOUTH TO JUST OFF THE NC COAST. SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW
WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP...BUT THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL STILL BE
DRAPED ACROSS THE STATE...SO SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY
LIGHT AND VARIABLE. 1000-850MB THICKNESSES ARE FORECAST TO RISE 20M
TO AROUND 1340M...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN HIGHS REACHING TO LOWER
60S. INCREASING HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW EJECTING
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING CIRRUS INTO THE WESTERN CWA LATE
SUNDAY...LEADING TO PARTLY O MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT.
THIS COMBINED WITH INCREASING DEWPOINTS IN THE RETURN FLOW WILL KEEP
LOWS SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER...UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY...
INITIAL COOL WEDGED AIRMASS WILL BE DISPLACED AS THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND AN UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE EAST
COAST. THUS CAN EXPECT DEEPENING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AND
INITIATION OF AN ACCOMPANYING WARMING TREND SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...MOSTLY IN
THE LOW 60S. GOOD RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO SLIP
BACK TO AROUND 40 SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH ADDITIONAL WARM ADVECTION
PUSHING HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 60S MONDAY.
AN UPPER SYSTEM IN THE MIDWEST WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT AND DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL STRONGLY SHEARED AND SLOW TO MOVE EAST...HENCE EXPECT
INCREASING MAINLY HIGH CLOUDINESS MONDAY...WITH SHOWERS DELAYED INTO
MONDAY NIGHT.
FRONT EDGES EAST AND ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL
FORCING. WILL LEAVE SLIGHT CHANCES IN PLACE FOR THE TUESDAY...
ALTHOUGH A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM VORT MAX IS SUGGESTED BY BOTH GFS
AND ECMWF. THIS VORT MAX WOULD BE MOVING ALONG WITH THE FRONT
CONCURRENT WITH MAX HEATING AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MIGHT NEED TO BE
ADJUSTED UP IF THIS FEATURE SHOWS CONSENSUS AND PERSISTENCE IN LATER
MODEL RUNS. TUESDAYS POTENTIAL HIGHS PER LOW LEVEL THICKNESS WILL BE
TEMPERED BY THE CLOUD COVER AND POTENTIAL PRECIP...LOWER 70S LOOK
GOOD. FRONT MOVES OFF...LEAVING A WARM AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH
RESIDUAL CLOUD COVERAGE...TUE NIGHT MINS WILL BE QUITE MILD...IN THE
LOWER 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY...
CYCLE BEGINS ANEW...WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE RIDGE BUILDING
BRIEFLY UP THE EAST COAST. WARM AIRMASS IN PLACE INITIALLY WILL BE
REINFORCED AND HIGHS WED WILL REACH THE MID 70S...PERHAPS UPPER 70S
GIVEN A NUDGE FROM INSOLATION.
MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF STATES AND
ADVECT UP THE RIDGE EAST AND NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA IN THE THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY TIME FRAME. INITIALLY WILL HAVE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES IN
THE WEST ON THURSDAY GIVEN THE BLOCKING RIDGE...WITH SMALL CHANCES
EVERYWHERE FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE FLATTENS AND OUR NEXT COLD FRONT IS
FREED TO MAKE ITS WAY SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA FRIDAY.
HIGHS THU AND FRI WILL BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL...IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S...WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOWER 80S GIVEN ANY SUN...ESPECIALLY
THURSDAY. OVERNIGHT MINS SIMILARLY VERY MILD...LOW TO MID 50S.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1240 AM SATURDAY...
SITES FROM KCTZ TO KIXA..MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-95.... ARE
REPORTING MVFR/IFR VSBYS WHERE DEWPOINTS HAVE YET TO BEGIN TO CRASH.
NEAR TERM MODEL GUIDANCE...NAMELY THE HRRR MODEL...SHOWS THIS AREA
EXPANDING THROUGH 09Z...THEN SHIFTING EASTWARD AS DRIER AIR AIR
ADVECTS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. KRWI AND KFAY WILL LIKELY BE ON THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE LOWER VSBYS FOR A FEW HOURS...THOUGH CONFIDENCE
IS HIGHER FOR KRWI WHERE VSBYS HAVE ALREADY DROPPED TO 3/4MI. VSBYS
MAY BOUNCE UP AND DOWN THROUGH 09Z...WITH IMPROVEMENT AFTERWARD.
CLEAR SKIES WITH NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND A FEW GUSTS TO NEAR 20KT IN
THE EAST ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY TODAY...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. -SMITH
THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY EVENING. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...THE RETURN FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE HIGH WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY MVFR CEILINGS. THE THREAT FOR MORNING STRATUS
MAY BE HIGHER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS. -KRR
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...MLM
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...SMITH/KRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
1240 AM EST SAT MAR 10 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN ON SUNDAY... AND CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 220 PM FRIDAY...
TONIGHT...PASSAGE OF H7 TROUGH THIS EVENING HAS FINALLY
ALLOWED CLOUDS TO CLEAR OUT...WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. 1034MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE DRIVEN BY CAA WITH STEADY NORTHERLY BREEZE OF 7
TO 10 KTS. LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES ARE FORECAST TO BOTTOM OUT AOA 1300
METERS BY DAYBREAK. HOWEVER A WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
PREVENT SFC TEMPERATURES FROM REALIZING FULL COOLING POTENTIAL.
LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S.
SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH (1035+ MB) OVER THE OH VALLEY WILL EXTEND
INTO THE CAROLINAS. CIRCULATION AROUND THIS WEATHER FEATURE WILL
RESULT IN A CHILLY NE SURFACE FLOW INITIALLY WITH INFREQUENT GUSTS
15-20 MPH IN THE MORNING. THIS SURFACE FLOW WILL ABATE IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE RIDGE BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE FORECAST
AREA. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES AVERAGE ABOUT 20M BELOW NORMAL. THIS
YIELDS MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN THE LOW-MID 50S WITH THE COOLEST TEMPS IN
THE NE COUNTIES WHERE THE 850MB THERMAL TROUGH LINGERS LONGER. MAY
SEE A FEW UPPER 50S IN THE FAR SOUTH.
SATURDAY NIGHT...SURFACE HIGH AND ATTENDANT 850MB ANTI-CYCLONE
PROJECTED TO LIE OVERHEAD SATURDAY NIGHT. MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS TO
OUR WEST SHOULD HOLD OFF ANY HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS. WITH CLEAR...COOL
AND DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE...SURFACE AIR MASS SHOULD COOL VERY
EFFICIENTLY. THIS SUPPORTS MIN TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN
MOS GUIDANCE. POTENTIAL FOR NORMALLY COLDER LOCALES TO DIP INTO
THE MID 20S WITH UPPER 20S-LOWER 30S EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY...
INITIAL COOL WEDGED AIRMASS WILL BE DISPLACED AS THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND AN UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE EAST
COAST. THUS CAN EXPECT DEEPENING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AND
INITIATION OF AN ACCOMPANYING WARMING TREND SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...MOSTLY IN
THE LOW 60S. GOOD RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO SLIP
BACK TO AROUND 40 SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH ADDITIONAL WARM ADVECTION
PUSHING HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 60S MONDAY.
AN UPPER SYSTEM IN THE MIDWEST WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT AND DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL STRONGLY SHEARED AND SLOW TO MOVE EAST...HENCE EXPECT
INCREASING MAINLY HIGH CLOUDINESS MONDAY...WITH SHOWERS DELAYED INTO
MONDAY NIGHT.
FRONT EDGES EAST AND ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL
FORCING. WILL LEAVE SLIGHT CHANCES IN PLACE FOR THE TUESDAY...
ALTHOUGH A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM VORT MAX IS SUGGESTED BY BOTH GFS
AND ECMWF. THIS VORT MAX WOULD BE MOVING ALONG WITH THE FRONT
CONCURRENT WITH MAX HEATING AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MIGHT NEED TO BE
ADJUSTED UP IF THIS FEATURE SHOWS CONSENSUS AND PERSISTENCE IN LATER
MODEL RUNS. TUESDAYS POTENTIAL HIGHS PER LOW LEVEL THICKNESS WILL BE
TEMPERED BY THE CLOUD COVER AND POTENTIAL PRECIP...LOWER 70S LOOK
GOOD. FRONT MOVES OFF...LEAVING A WARM AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH
RESIDUAL CLOUD COVERAGE...TUE NIGHT MINS WILL BE QUITE MILD...IN THE
LOWER 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY...
CYCLE BEGINS ANEW...WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE RIDGE BUILDING
BRIEFLY UP THE EAST COAST. WARM AIRMASS IN PLACE INITIALLY WILL BE
REINFORCED AND HIGHS WED WILL REACH THE MID 70S...PERHAPS UPPER 70S
GIVEN A NUDGE FROM INSOLATION.
MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF STATES AND
ADVECT UP THE RIDGE EAST AND NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA IN THE THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY TIME FRAME. INITIALLY WILL HAVE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES IN
THE WEST ON THURSDAY GIVEN THE BLOCKING RIDGE...WITH SMALL CHANCES
EVERYWHERE FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE FLATTENS AND OUR NEXT COLD FRONT IS
FREED TO MAKE ITS WAY SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA FRIDAY.
HIGHS THU AND FRI WILL BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL...IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S...WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOWER 80S GIVEN ANY SUN...ESPECIALLY
THURSDAY. OVERNIGHT MINS SIMILARLY VERY MILD...LOW TO MID 50S.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1240 AM SATURDAY...
SITES FROM KCTZ TO KIXA..MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-95.... ARE
REPORTING MVFR/IFR VSBYS WHERE DEWPOINTS HAVE YET TO BEGIN TO CRASH.
NEAR TERM MODEL GUIDANCE...NAMELY THE HRRR MODEL...SHOWS THIS AREA
EXPANDING THROUGH 09Z...THEN SHIFTING EASTWARD AS DRIER AIR AIR
ADVECTS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. KRWI AND KFAY WILL LIKELY BE ON THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE LOWER VSBYS FOR A FEW HOURS...THOUGH CONFIDENCE
IS HIGHER FOR KRWI WHERE VSBYS HAVE ALREADY DROPPED TO 3/4MI. VSBYS
MAY BOUNCE UP AND DOWN THROUGH 09Z...WITH IMPROVEMENT AFTERWARD.
CLEAR SKIES WITH NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND A FEW GUSTS TO NEAR 20KT IN
THE EAST ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY TODAY...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. -SMITH
THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY EVENING. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...THE RETURN FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE HIGH WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY MVFR CEILINGS. THE THREAT FOR MORNING STRATUS
MAY BE HIGHER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS. -KRR
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...CBL/WSS
SHORT TERM...MLM
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...SMITH/KRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
304 AM CST SAT MAR 10 2012
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY
304 AM CST SAT MAR 10 2012
THE MAIN STORIES IN THE SHORT TERM IS WITH THE WARM...DRY AND
WINDY CONDITIONS TODAY...THE RAIN ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AND THEN
HOW WARM IT WILL GET ON TUESDAY.
CURRENTLY...HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS STREAMING IN FROM THE WEST
AHEAD OF A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG THE US/CANADA BORDER. AT
THE SURFACE...A WARM FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM A LOW NEAR
WINNIPEG THROUGH CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND EASTERN IOWA. WINDS HAVE
GREATLY INCREASED AS A RESULT OF A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THIS LOW AND A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
THE GREAT LAKES. WITH THE BETTER MIXING DUE TO THE STRONGER WINDS
TO GO ALONG WITH WARM AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE WEST IN THE LOW
LEVELS...SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE STARTED TO CLIMB ACROSS THE
REGION.
WITH THIS WARMER AIR MASS IN PLACE AND THE SURFACE WARM FRONT WELL
TO THE NORTH TODAY...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO NEAR RECORD LEVELS
IN THE 60S AS HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER BECOMES MORE SPARSE. DETAILS
OF TEMPERATURE RECORDS ARE DISCUSSED IN THE CLIMATE SECTION OF
THIS AFD. THE WINDS ARE THE MAIN CONCERN TODAY WITH WHETHER OR NOT
PORTIONS OF THE REGION WILL HIT ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE 10.00Z
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE STRONGEST PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THIS MORNING BEFORE WEAKENING IT THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE
THIS TIMING IS NOT IDEAL FOR PEAK DIURNAL HEATING AND MIXING...IT
WILL HELP TO KEEP THE WINDS UP THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS IN THE 15 TO 25KT RANGE AND GUSTS UP TO 35KTS AT TIMES. MANY
SITES HAVE ALREADY BEEN GUSTING THIS MORNING INTO THE 20 TO 30KT
RANGE AND WOULD JUST EXPECT THESE WINDS TO INCREASE AS WARMING
SURFACE TEMPERATURES DEEPEN THE MIXING. WITH IT BEING BORDERLINE
AT THIS POINT...WILL HOLD OFF ON AN ADVISORY BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW GUSTS GET CLOSE TO THE 40KT RANGE. THE
OTHER ASPECT OF THIS IS WITH HOW DRY CONDITIONS WILL GET THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE MIXING. THIS ISSUE IS ADDRESSED IN THE FIRE
WEATHER SECTION OF THIS AFD.
THE FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH THE RAIN
CHANCES...MAINLY WITH WHEN IT WILL START AND HOW MUCH WILL FALL.
THE TREND HAS BEEN TO GO LATER WITH THE ONSET OF THE RAIN WHICH
IS MAINLY DUE TO A SLOWER MODEL SOLUTION OF HAVING THE CUT OFF LOW
GET PICKED UP BY THE FLOW A TAD LATER IN THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.
MUCH OF THE 10.00Z GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE COMBINATION OF
FORCING AND SATURATION DOES NOT OCCUR UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE
LOW TAKES AIM AT THE REGION. THUNDER STILL DOES NOT LOOK VERY
LIKELY WITH THE 10.00Z NAM AND GFS SPITTING OUT AROUND 100 J/KG OF
MUCAPE AS A RESULT OF STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF
THE LOW. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH
SHOWERS BECOMING MORE AND MORE SCATTERED THROUGH THE DAY.
OVERALL...QPF LOOKS FAIRLY LIGHT AT MAYBE A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH
OF TOTAL RAIN. THIS ISSUE OF ANY SNOW MELT AND RIVER RISES IS
DISCUSSED IN THE HYDRO SECTION OF THE AFD.
BEYOND THIS...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH WARMER LOW LEVEL
GETTING ADVECTED RIGHT BACK INTO THE REGION. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL CLIMB BACK INTO THE 60S ON TUESDAY WITH WINDS COMING BACK
AROUND TO THE SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
304 AM CST SAT MAR 10 2012
THE MAIN HIGHLIGHT IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS WITH THE CONTINUED
WARM TEMPERATURES THAT ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE
WEEK. WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE NEXT WEEK AS
SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THESE
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL LEAD TO HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO
THE 70S DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE FRONT COMES THROUGH
THAT EVENING. QUESTIONS STILL LINGER ABOUT WHETHER ANY CONVECTION
WILL INITIATE ALONG THE FRONT WEDNESDAY WITH THE 10.00Z
GFS/GEM/ECMWF KEEPING MUCH OF THE REGION DRY UNTIL THE FRONT GETS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AFTER THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE COMES THROUGH AHEAD OF A
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW THAT WILL LIKELY FORM IN THE PLAINS. THIS
MAY LEAD TO SOME ENHANCED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION AND SOME
RAIN SHOWERS GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY
1134 PM CST FRI MAR 9 2012
WINDS WERE BEGINNING TO PICK UP AT THE TAF SITES...AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT STRENGTHENS OVER THE AREA. BOTH 10.03Z RUC AND 10.00Z NAM
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW AN INCREASE IN THE LOW LEVEL WINDS
OVERNIGHT. IN FACT SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS HAVE INCREASED THEM AND
THUS WILL CONTINUE THE LLWS AT BOTH SITES...WITH 50 TO 55 KNOT
WINDS OFF THE DECK. WILL CARRY THIS THROUGH 14Z BEFORE MIXING
TAKES PLACE AND WINDS INCREASE AT THE SURFACE. STILL EXPECTING
SUSTAINED SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS...WITH GUSTS TO 35
KNOTS BETWEEN 14Z-23Z. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER
23Z...ESPECIALLY THE GUSTS. OTHERWISE ONLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.CLIMATE...TODAY
304 AM CST SAT MAR 10 2012
THE COMBINATION OF ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...DRY DEW POINTS...AND
SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO RISE INTO THE MID AND UPPER 50S NORTH OF WISCONSIN 29...AND INTO
THE LOWER AND MID 60S ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF A FEW RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE EITHER TIED OR
BROKEN. IN LOCATIONS WHERE THE RECORDS ARE LENGTHY /MORE THAN 115
YEARS/ SUCH AS DECORAH /66F/...LA CROSSE /67F/...MEDFORD /53F/...AND
WINONA /64F/...THE TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL THREATEN THE
1894 RECORDS FOR THIS DATE. MEANWHILE THOSE THIS SHORTER DATA
BASES...THE TEMPERATURES WILL THREATEN RECORDS EITHER SET IN 1967 OR
1977.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...THROUGH MONDAY
304 AM CST SAT MAR 10 2012
SOME MINOR CONCERNS ABOUT WHETHER ANY FLOODING WILL OCCUR ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AS A RESULT OF A MELTING SNOW PACK AND
RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. QPF AMOUNTS ARE LOOKING FAIRLY
LIGHT AT THIS POINT AT JUST A QUARTER OF AN INCH TO A HALF INCH
OVER A LONG PERIOD WITH NO THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO OCCUR. WITH
GRADUAL MELTING DUE TO THE WARMER TEMPERATURES...CURRENTLY EXPECT
TO SEE SOME RIVER RISES ALONG THE BLACK AND TREMPEALEAU
RIVERS...BUT PROBABLY NOT UP TO FLOOD STAGE AT THIS POINT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...TODAY
304 AM CST SAT MAR 10 2012
SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND
DRY AIR IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE REGION. THE STRONGEST SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING
THOUGH THE BETTER MIXING WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE 60S. 10.00Z FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
INDICATING MIXING UP TO 2KFT WITH MOMENTUM TRANSFER BRINGING GUSTS
UP INTO THE 35KT RANGE. THIS MIXING WOULD ALSO INDICATE THAT DEW
POINTS WOULD DROP INTO THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN.
THIS WOULD LEAD TO RH VALUES OF AROUND 20 PERCENT OR LOWER LATE
THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. WITH NO GREEN UP OCCURRING THUS FAR
ACROSS THE REGION...SOME FIRE CONCERNS ARE OUT THERE FOR TODAY.
WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE QUICKLY THIS EVENING WITH DEW POINTS
REBOUNDING ONCE THE SURFACE TO 2KFT MIXING DECOUPLES.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
304 AM CST SAT MAR 10 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HALBACH
LONG TERM...HALBACH
AVIATION...RABERDING
CLIMATE...BOYNE
HYDROLOGY...HALBACH
FIRE WEATHER...HALBACH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1134 PM CST FRI MAR 9 2012
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
332 PM CST FRI MAR 9 2012
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE UNSEASONABLY MILD/BREEZY CONDITIONS
SATURDAY...THEN RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.
SURFACE MAP THIS AFTERNOON HAS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED DIRECTLY OVER
THE FORECAST AREA RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES. FAIRLY CHILLY CONDITIONS
DESPITE FULL SUNSHINE WITH TEMPERATURES AT 2 PM RANGING FROM THE
MIDDLE 20S TO MIDDLE 30S. ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH AND IN
ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS...A FAIRLY
THICK VEIL OF MID/HIGH CLOUD EXISTED ACROSS EASTERN ND INTO CENTRAL
MN...ADVANCING EASTWARD TOWARD THE AREA.
09.12Z NCEP MODELS/ 09.09Z SREF SHOWING VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM.
FOR TONIGHT...THE WARM FRONT ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVANCE EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...EXITING EAST BY DAYBREAK.
AFFECTS OF THE WARM FRONT WILL BE FAIRLY DENSE ALTOCUMULUS FIELD
MAINLY NORTH OF I-90. OTHERWISE...WILL LIKELY SEE A BRIEF/SMALL DOWNWARD
DIP IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH MIDNIGHT...THEN A SLOW RISE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT/SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE
AREA INCREASES. LOOK FOR LOWS THIS EVENING IN THE LOWER 20S TO
AROUND 30...CLIMBING INTO THE MID 20S TO MIDDLE 30S BY SUNRISE.
SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE A SUNNY/UNSEASONABLY MILD AND BREEZY DAY AS THE
AREA BECOMES ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM SECTOR OF DEEP LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS ONTARIO CANADA. NAM BUFKIT SOUNDING MIXING TO AROUND
925MB THROUGH SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES AT THAT LEVEL WARMING INTO
THE 9-12C RANGE. THIS IS EXPECTED TO YIELD SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN
THE MIDDLE 50S IN THE SNOW PACK AREA ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA. IN
ADDITION...BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOWING STRONG WINDS ALOFT//ABOVE
925MB// OF 50+ KT. LUCKILY WITH A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
INDICATED...MIXING SHOULD BE LIMITED TO 925MB WHICH WOULD YIELD WIND
GUST IN FULL MIXING TO 30-40 MPH RANGE.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF SUNDAY FOR DRY CONDITIONS. MODEL RH FIELDS
SHOW AN INCREASE IN HIGH/MID CLOUDS THROUGH SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF A
MID-LEVEL CLOSED LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE NAM/GFS WANTS TO
BRING SOME -RA INTO NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHEAST MN/FAR SOUTHWEST WI LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON WHILE THE ECMWF/GEM WANT TO MAINTAIN A DRY
FORECAST. CAN SEE SOME VIRGA/FEW RAIN DROPS REACHING THE
SURFACE...SO WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF -RA ACROSS THAT AREA
FOR NOW.
GFS/NAM SHOW THE 925-850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASING
SIGNIFICANTLY INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE MID-LEVEL LOW LIFTS
OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
REGION. NAM/GFS ALSO SHOW PRECIPITABLE WATERS INCREASING TO 250-300
PERCENT ABOVE NORMAL AS GULF MOISTURE TAP GOES UNIMPEDED. THIS WILL
RAPIDLY SATURATE THE COLUMN FOR WIDESPREAD LIGHT-MODERATE RAINFALL.
RAIN APPEARS TO LAST THROUGH MONDAY AS THE LOW LIFTS ACROSS WI INTO
UPPER MICHIGAN. COULD SEE SOME TAPERING OFF IN THE SOUTHWEST
//ACROSS NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHEAST MN// IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW
LIFTS NORTHEAST. THE MID-LEVEL LOW THEN WEAKENS/FILLS AS IT LIFTS
NORTHEAST INTO ONTARIO MONDAY EVENING. THIS SHOULD BRING AN END TO
THE RAIN CHANCES BY 06Z TUESDAY.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
332 PM CST FRI MAR 9 2012
09.12Z GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE THE UNSEASONABLY MILD WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH THE PERIOD. GEFS STILL INDICATING AROUND +2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS WHICH INDICATES NEAR RECORD VALUES FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE 60S/LOWER 70S. MAIN CONCERN/FLY IN THE
OINTMENT WILL BE A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS. ECMWF SHOWING NEAR 1500J/KG OF 0-3KM
MUCAPE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH RESPECTABLE AMOUNT OF SHEAR.
WILL THEREFORE HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS FOR SEVERE
POTENTIAL. APPEARS BEST THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE SOUTHEAST OF A
LINE FROM NECEDAH AND VIROQUA WISCONSIN...TO FAYETTE IA.
HOWEVER...DUE TO POSSIBILITY OF A STRONG CAP/TIMING OF FRONT...KEPT
POPS LOW AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY
1134 PM CST FRI MAR 9 2012
WINDS WERE BEGINNING TO PICK UP AT THE TAF SITES...AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT STRENGTHENS OVER THE AREA. BOTH 10.03Z RUC AND 10.00Z NAM
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW AN INCREASE IN THE LOW LEVEL WINDS
OVERNIGHT. IN FACT SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS HAVE INCREASED THEM AND
THUS WILL CONTINUE THE LLWS AT BOTH SITES...WITH 50 TO 55 KNOT
WINDS OFF THE DECK. WILL CARRY THIS THROUGH 14Z BEFORE MIXING
TAKES PLACE AND WINDS INCREASE AT THE SURFACE. STILL EXPECTING
SUSTAINED SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS...WITH GUSTS TO 35
KNOTS BETWEEN 14Z-23Z. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER
23Z...ESPECIALLY THE GUSTS. OTHERWISE ONLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
332 PM CST FRI MAR 9 2012
A DEEP SNOW PACK OF 3 TO AS MUCH AS 15 INCHES REMAINS ON THE GROUND
ACROSS TAYLOR COUNTY. ESTIMATED SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS RANGE FROM A
HALF OF AN INCH UP TO 2 INCHES. THE COMBINATION OF WARM TEMPERATURES
AND EXPECTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO A HALF OF AN INCH FROM SUNDAY
EVENING THROUGH MONDAY...WILL CAUSE RIVERS...STREAMS AND CREEKS TO
RISE THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN RIVER TRIBUTARIES
IMPACTED BY THE RUNOFF FROM THE SNOW MELT AND RAINFALL WILL BE
MAINLY ALONG THE TREMPEALEAU AND BLACK RIVERS. SOME SITES ALONG THE
IMPACTED RIVERS MAY RISE TO FLOOD STAGE...PARTICULARLY IF ANY HEAVY
RAINFALL OCCURS SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
332 PM CST FRI MAR 9 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...RABERDING
HYDROLOGY...DTJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
807 AM EST SAT MAR 10 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE GREAT LAKES BRINGING DRY AND
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TODAY...AND MILDER TEMPERATURES INTO THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRAVELING FROM KANSAS
TO THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS LATER MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
8AM UPDATE... UPDATED THE FIRST FEW HOURS WITH THE LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE.
ONLY MINOR CHANGE WAS A DECREASE IN CLOUDS FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
REMAINDER UNCHANGED.
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE
GREAT LAKES TODAY ENDING ANY COLD ADVECTION STRATOCUMULUS THAT
CONTINUES TO SKIRT THE NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS MORNING. MUCH DRIER
AIR...LIGHT WINDS...AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY REBOUND TO JUST ABOVE SEASONABLE LEVELS
TODAY. HIGH CIRRUS ASSOCIATED WITH A WAVE TRAVELING ACROSS CANADA
MAY BRING SOME HAZY SUN NORTH BUT SHOULD NOT DO MUCH ELSE. USED A
BLEND OF MAV/LAMP GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE FORECAST THROUGH
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN DROP INTO THE 20`S SATURDAY
NIGHT AS THE LOWER LEVELS DECOUPLE AND SKIES REMAIN CLEAR.
AS THE RIDGE SLIDES EASTWARD...A RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW
AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM WELL
ABOVE NORMAL. HIGH CIRRUS AND MID-DECK ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...PROGGED TO MOVE FROM KANSAS TO THE GREAT
LAKES WILL APPROACH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.
MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH A COOL FRONT WILL CROSS MONDAY MIDDAY/AFTERNOON. WHAT IS
SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT IS THE EXIT TIMING OF THE FRONT...AS SOME OF
THE MODELS HOLD ON TO PRECIPITATION LONGER AND HANG THE FRONT OVER
THE REGION.
FOLLOWED TEMPERATURES CLOSELY TO MAV/MET GUIDANCE ERRING ON THE
COOL SIDE SATURDAY NIGHT...AND WARMER SIDE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW A WEAKENING SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE
LOW TRACKING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL REBUILD BY MIDWEEK...FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE RIDGE SLIDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
SHOULD PROVIDE DRY WEATHER FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER LAKE ERIE WILL SHIFT EAST TODAY DISSIPATING
SOME MVFR/VFR STRATUS THIS MORNING ACROSS THE NORTH. CIRRUS FROM
WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
REGION DURING THE DAY. NORTH WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME
LIGHT THEN SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY LESS THAN 10 KTS AS SURFACE HIGH
SHIFTS EAST.
OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
SURFACE RIDGE WILL PROVIDE GENERAL VFR FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. A WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTHEAST INTO
THE GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY NIGHT AND DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY. RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY...WITH A RETURN TO VFR WEDNESDAY.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
612 AM EST SAT MAR 10 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EST SAT MAR 10 2012
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW PROGRESSIVE UPR
FLOW ACROSS NAMERICA WITH DEPARTING UPR TROF/COLD AIRMASS OVER
QUEBEC DOWNSTREAM OF ZONAL FLOW FM WRN CAN INTO NW ONTARIO. 12Z-24Z
H3 RISES OVER 200M FM NW ONTARIO INTO THE GREAT LAKES INDICATE THE
COLD AIR TO THE E IS RETREATING. 00Z H85 TEMPS RANGED FM -24C AT
MOOSONEE ONTARIO TO -15C AT YPL...-14C AT GRB...AND -9C AT INL TO A
BALMY 10C AT BISMARCK AND 12C AT GLASGOW MONTANA WITHIN DOWNSLOPED
PACIFIC AIRMASS IN THE NRN PLAINS. A BAND OF MID CLDS STRETCHING FM
NW ONTARIO INTO MN/UPR MI AND WI ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAD IN THE
SW FLOW BTWN SFC HI PRES OVER LOWER MI AND LO PRES EMBEDDED IN THE
ZONAL FLOW AND NW OF LK WINNIPEG. THE AREAL EXTENT OF THIS MID CLD
IS BEST DEPICTED BY THE HIER RH SHOWN ON THE NAM 285-290K ISENTROPIC
SFCS /H8-65/. BUT SINCE THE 00Z INL RAOB SHOWS A VERY DRY SFC-H85
LYR BLO THE MID LVL MSTR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAD...THERE HAS BEEN
NO PCPN UNDER THE CLD BAND. AWAY FM THE MAIN BAND OF
WESTERLIES...THERE IS A CUTOFF LO OVER THE DESERT SW WITHIN THE
SUBTROPICAL BRANCH.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EST SAT MAR 10 2012
TODAY...AS THE COLD AIR TO THE E CONTINUES TO RETREAT...THE WAD MID
CLD WL SHIFT STEADILY TO THE E PER THE NAM FCST RH ON THE 285-290K
SFCS. DESPITE THE DRYNESS OF THE LLVLS SHOWN ON THE INL/GRB RAOBS...
SOME GUIDANCE DOES GENERATE LGT QPF OVER THE NE HALF OF THE CWA THIS
MRNG UNDER THE SHARPER ISENTROPIC ASCENT. OPTED TO RETAIN SCHC POPS
FOR THIS AREA EARLY. THE BACK EDGE OF THE HIER RH IS PROGGED TO
CLEAR ERY ARND 15Z. THE INCOMING WARM AIR IS FCST TO PUSH H85 TEMPS
BY 00Z SUN TO 8-10C OVER THE W TO 4-6C OVER THE E. ALTHOUGH THERE
MAY BE SOME HI CLDS... THE EXCESSIVE DRYNESS SHOWN ON THE BISMARCK
RAOB SUGS THERE WL BE NO LO CLDS. THERE WL BE A GUSTY S WIND THIS
MRNG UNDER H925 WINDS FCST UP TO 40-50KTS ON THE SRN FLANK OF PRES
FALL PASSING OVER LK SUP. SINCE THE LLVL FLOW IS FCST TO VEER MORE
TO THE W THRU THE DAY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A SFC WARM FNT...
PREFER TO TREND MAX TEMPS TOWARD THE WARMER GFS MOS. IN FACT...
MIXING TO JUST H9 ON THE GFS FCST SDNGS YIELDS HI TEMPS PEAKING IN
THE 50S OVER MUCH OF THE W HALF OF THE CWA...SEVERAL DEGREES HIER
THAN SHOWN BY THE MOS FCST. A MORE PERSISTENT SW LLVL FLOW OVER THE
E CLOSER TO THE DEPARTING COLD AIR AND BLOWING OFF THE COOL WATERS
OF LK MI WL HOLD TEMPS IN THE 40S IN THAT AREA. THE MORE WLY FLOW WL
ALSO KEEP THE KEWEENAW A BIT COOLER. GOING FCST HI TEMPS NEED LTL
ADJUSTMENT.
TNGT...UNDER BLDG UPR RDG...THE PRES GRADIENT IS FCST TO SLACKEN
QUITE A BIT...ALLOWING FOR MUCH LIGHTER WINDS. UNDER A MOCLR SKY...
EXPECT A HEALTHY DIURNAL TEMP FALL...WITH TEMPS FALLING TOWARD THE
LO END OF GUIDANCE GIVEN THE DRYNESS OF THE BISMARCK RAOB.
SUN...EXPECT ANOTHER MOSUNNY...WARM DAY WITH UPR RDG OVHD AND H85
TEMPS ARND 8C. SOME HI CLDS WL ARRIVE FM THE SW LATER IN THE DAY IN
ADVANCE OF UPR LO LIFTING OUT FM THE DESERT SW. MIXING TO JUST H9 ON
GFS FCST SDNGS WOULD RESULT IN HI TEMPS PEAKING NEAR 60 OVER AT
LEAST THE INTERIOR W HALF. BUT IN CONTRAST WITH TDAY THOUGH...THE
PRES GRADIENT WL BE RATHER WEAK...ALLOWING FOR LK BREEZE FORMATION/
COOLING NEAR THE SHORES. WITH THE PREVAILING SW FLOW...AREAS OVER
THE E DOWNWIND OF LK MI WL BE COOLER AS WELL.
SUN NGT...EXPECT THICKENING CLDS AS NEGATIVELY TILTED SHRTWV APRCHS
FM THE SW. THE EVNG WL BE DRY WITH LINGERING LLVL DRY AIR...BUT
ARRIVAL OF DEEPER MSTR/UPR DVGC IN EXIT REGION OF SUPPORTING H3 JET
MAX/H85-7 FGEN AFT 06Z WL BRING THE THREAT OF RA IN FM THE SW. THERE
ARE NO PTYPE WORRIES WITH THIS EVENT GIVEN UNSEASONABLE WARMTH OF
THE AIRMASS. ALTHOUGH INITIAL DRYNESS OF THE LLVLS WL INHIBIT FOG
FORMATION... LLVL MSTR SURGE FCST AFT 06Z WL BRING IN SOME FOG OVER
MELTING SN PACK...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OVER THE CNTRL THAT UPSLOPE
WITH LLVL SE WIND.
.LONG TERM...(MODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EST SAT MAR 10 2012
UPPER LOW PULLING OUT OF THE SW STATES TONIGHT WILL APPROACH THE
AREA ON SUN NIGHT AND CROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON MON. AT THE
SFC...BROAD TROUGH FROM A LOW CENTERED OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES
WILL PUSH NE ACROSS THE AREA ON MON. MODELS SEEM TO HAVE COME INTO
DECENT AGREEMENT ON TIMING/TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW...WHICH LEADS TO
ABOVE NORMAL CONF ON PCPN TIMING.
MAIN PCPN OUT AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED WITH THE BEST
H925-700 WAA AND 290-300K ISENTROPIC ASCENT MOVES NE ACROSS THE CWA
LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING THE BULK OF
THE PCPN WITH THE SYSTEM. COULD SEE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE LATE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTN AS MID LVL DRY AIR PUSHES THROUGH BEFORE THE
UPPER LOW MOVES OVERHEAD IN THE AFTN AND INCREASES MOISTURE AGAIN.
THIS PRODUCES ANOTHER SURGE OF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WRN
HALF OF THE CWA. POTENTIAL STORMS OVER THE CNTRL/SRN MISS VALLEY
WILL LIKELY KEEP SOME OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE FROM MAKING IT INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LKS. BUT THE WARM/MOIST AIR FROM THE GULF WILL PRODUCE
PWATS NEAR 300 PERCENT OF NORMAL WITH THE WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW. THUS...EXPECT AROUND 0.2-0.3IN OF RAIN WITH
THE INITIAL SURGE OF WAA. FELT THE EXISTING POPS IN THE DEFINITE
CATEGORY WERE GOOD FOR THE MORNING AND JUST TRIED TO ADD SOME
ADDITIONAL TIMING FOR THE DRY SLOT TOWARDS MID DAY AND BETTER
CHANCES OVER THE W IN THE AFTN.
WITH THE MELTING SNOW...RAIN...AND ABUNDANT LLVL MOISTURE...WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION AREAS OF FOG FOR MON MORN. BUT HAVE TAPERED IT
OFF HEADING INTO THE AFTN...AS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWING LLVL MIXING
DIMINISHING THE POTENTIAL. DID LEAVE THE FOG IN OVER THE E WITH THE
SW FLOW AND WARM/MOIST AIR OVER LK MI...MAINLY E OF A LINE FROM
MUNISING TO ESCANABA.
MON NIGHT...WITH SFC TROUGH AND UPPER LOW QUICKLY MOVING NE ON MON
NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL START TO EDGE INTO THE AREA
OVERNIGHT MON FROM SRN MN. WILL LIKELY STILL SEE SOME WRAP AROUND
SHOWERS IN THE EVENING FROM THE UPPER LOW ENERGY...BUT WILL DIMINISH
FROM SW TO NE WITH THE UPPER LOW QUICKLY MOVING NE. THIS QUICK
MOVEMENT...ALONG WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE...WILL LEAD TO A SHARP
CLEARING LINE MOVING IN OVERNIGHT. ONE ITEM OF NOTE IS THE NAM
SHOWING LLVL MOISTURE BELOW THE DEVELOPING INVERSION AT 2.5KFT.
COULD LEAD TO SOME LINGERING FOG OR LOW CLOUDS BEHIND THE EXITING
UPPER LOW. GFS IS NOT AS PRONOUNCED AND WITH THE NAM TENDING TO
OVERDO LLVL MOISTURE...WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE FCST AT THIS TIME.
DAYS 4 THROUGH 7 /TUES THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFYING OVER THE CENTRAL/ERN CONUS WILL LEAD TO A
WARM/DRY DAY ON TUES AS A SFC HIGH SLIDES ACROSS THE CWA. COULD LEAD
TO SOME LK BREEZES DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE SFC RIDGE MOVING
THROUGH. BUT AT THIS FAR OUT...WILL NOT TRY TO GET TOO FANCY ON
TEMPS/WINDS ALONG LK SUPERIOR. AS FOR HIGHS...MIXING TOWARDS
H875 YIELDS HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 ALONG THE WI BORDER.
HAVE KEPT TEMPS IN THE 40S NEAR GRAND MARAIS...WHERE NW WINDS OFF LK
SUPERIOR WILL LINGER INTO THE EARLY AFTN HRS AND LIMIT WARMING.
HIGH SHIFTS E TUES NIGHT AND WED. SHORTWAVE IN THE NRN STREAM
UPPER FLOW RUNNING FROM THE PAC NW TO HUDSON BAY WILL SWEEP A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON WED AFTN. MAIN ENERGY FROM THE
SHORTWAVE AND THE COLD FRONT REMAINS WELL NNW OF THE AREA IN NRN
ONTARIO. THIS...COMBINED WITH LIMITED MID LVL MOISTURE...THINK THE
PCPN CHANCES ARE LOW. BUT...DID LEAVE SLIGHT CHANCES OVER THE SE
HALF OF THE CWA...AS ECMWF/GEM/GFS TRY TO PULL MLCAPE VALUES
TOWARDS 200 J/KG. ML LAPSE RATES ARE FAIRLY STRONG...AROUND
7-8C/KM...BUT THE MID LVL DRY AIR AND CAP NEAR H850 WILL LIKELY
KEEP DEVELOPMENT FROM OCCURRING. BEST CHANCES WILL BE S OF THE
CWA...IN THE SE HALF OF WI...BUT FELT KEEPING THE SLIGHT CHANCES IN
NEAR THE WI BORDER WAS REASONABLE. MIXING AGAIN TO NEAR H875 /9C/ ON
WED WILL PRODUCE HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 60S AWAY FROM THE COOLER FLOW
OFF LK MI. STRONGER SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL LIMIT
CONCERNS OF COOLING DUE TO LK BREEZES NEAR LK SUPERIOR. THIS SWRLY
FLOW WILL LIKELY LEAD TO DOWNSLOPE WARMING NEAR LK SUPERIOR...SO
HAVE BUMPED TEMPS UP SOME IN THOSE AREAS.
COLD FRONT SLIDES E ON WED NIGHT AND COULD LEAD TO A SLIGHT COOL
DOWN ON THURS. ECMWF/GEM KEEP IT WARM IN THE 50/60S WHILE THE GFS
HAS IN THE 40S. HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS THE WARMER ECMWF...SINCE IT
TRADITIONAL PERFORMS MUCH BETTER IN WELL ABOVE NORMAL PATTERNS AND
DUE TO THE COLD BIAS OF THE GFS. THUS...HAVE TEMPS IN THE
50S...EXCEPT OVER THE KEWEENAW AND NEAR LK SUPERIOR OVER THE NCTNRL
AND E...WHERE LIGHT WINDS OFF LK SUPERIOR WILL KEEP TEMPS COOLER.
OTHERWISE...UPPER RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE WARM/DRY WX FOR THE UPPER GREAT LKS. MODELS
ARE TRYING TO SHOW THE UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL HAVE BEEN STATIONED IN
THE PACIFIC OFF THE W COAST OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS TO TRY AND MOVE
INLAND THIS WEEKEND...AMPLIFYING THE RIDGE EVEN FURTHER. AS THIS
TROUGH CONTINUES E NEXT WEEK...COULD SEE A TRANSITION TO A LITTLE
MORE ACTIVE WX AND MORE NORMAL TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 610 AM EST SAT MAR 10 2012
WITH DRY LLVL AIRMASS DOMINATING THIS FCST PERIOD...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL 3 TAF SITES. GUSTY S WINDS WILL BE THE RULE THRU
THIS MORNING TO THE S OF PRES FALL CENTER MIGRATING OVER ONTARIO/LK
SUP AND UNDER SHARP PRES GRADIENT BTWN DEPARTING HI TO THE SE AND LO
PRES TRACKING ACRS SOUTHERN CAN. LOOK FOR THE WINDS TO DIMINISH
BEGINNING THIS AFTN ONCE THE PRES FALL CENTER SHIFTS FARTHER TO THE
E AND THE GRADIENT WEAKENS OVER UPR MI. WINDS WILL BE UNDER 10KTS
BY THIS EVNG.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EST SAT MAR 10 2012
EXPECT A S GALE UP TO 40 KTS OVER THE E HALF OF LK SUP INTO THIS
AFTERNOON UNDER TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN DEPARTING HI PRES
TO THE SE AND LO PRES MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THE ARRIVAL OF
A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CAUSE DIMINISHING WINDS LATER TODAY
THRU SUN.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
ON MONDAY AND EXIT ON MONDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
TO MOVE OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY. WINDS DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD
STAY BELOW 25KTS. A COLD FRONT FROM A LOW IN NRN ONTARIO WILL BRUSH
THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT
SHOULD PRODUCE WINDS IN THE 20-25KT RANGE. THINK THE MARINE LAYER
WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER WINDS ALOFT TO REACH THE SFC.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EST SAT MAR 10 2012
LITTLE HAS CHANGED ON THE HYDROLOGY FRONT OVER THE LAST COUPLE
DAYS. STILL EXPECT WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS OVER THE NEXT 7
DAYS...WHICH WILL TAKE A SIGNIFICANT BITE OUT OF THE SNOW PACK...IF
NOT EATING ALL OF IT.
TRADITIONALLY NEED ABOUT 2 DAYS OF TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-UPPER 40S
OR ABOVE AND TD/S ABOVE FREEZING TO RIPEN THE SNOWPACK. WARM TEMPS
EARLIER THIS WEEK DID JUST THAT OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH THE
COOL DOWN OVER THE LAST TWO DAYS HELPED SLOW/END THE MELT.
THUS...WITH THE TEMPS THIS WEEKEND EXPECTED TO EXCEED THAT...SHOULD
EASILY HAVE A RIPE SNOWPACK FOR MELTING THIS WEEKEND. THE RIPE
SNOWPACK WILL BE AIDED BY RAIN EXPECTED LATE SUN NIGHT AND INTO
MON...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE BETWEEN 0.25-0.40IN OF
PRECIPITATION. THEREFORE...EXPECT TO SEE RIVERS START TO RISE
SUN INTO MON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEK UNTIL THE SNOW IS
MELTED. OVERNIGHT LOWS DON/T LOOK TO GET BELOW FREEZING AFTER
TONIGHT...SO SHOULD SEE A FAIRLY STEADY MELT. WILL LIKELY SEE SNOW
PACK GONE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA BY THE END OF THIS WEEK...EXCEPT FOR
WOODED/SHADED LOCATIONS.
WITH THIS FAIRLY FAST MELT AND RUNOFF...EXPECT SOME OF THE RIVERS
ACROSS THE AREA TO EXCEED THEIR BANKS BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
PERSONS LIVING NEAR RIVERS AND STREAMS SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST
RIVER CONDITIONS AND USE CAUTION IF WALKING ALONG RIVER
BANKS...ESPECIALLY THE CHOCOLAY RIVER...TRAP ROCK
RIVER...AND THE STURGEON RIVER IN WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN.
FINALLY...NOT MUCH ICE HAS BEEN NOTED BY OBSERVERS ON THE FASTER
FLOWING RIVERS OVER NRN UPPER MI. BUT THE FORD RIVER...BOTH AT HYDE
AND THE MOUTH AT LK MI...STILL HAS A GOOD ICE COVER THAT LEADS TO
SOME CONCERN FOR ICE JAM POTENTIAL WITH THE FASTER RUNOFF. ALTHOUGH
LIMITED SNOW WAS NOTED NEAR LK MI...THERE IS STILL 5-10IN OF SNOW
AND NOHRSC ESTIMATED AROUND 1.5IN OF LIQUID TOWARDS THE HEADWATERS
THAT WILL MELTED OVER THE COMING DAYS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ249>251-266-
267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ248-250.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ221.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KC
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC/SRF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
356 AM MST SAT MAR 10 2012
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SUN...
WINDS IN THE UPPER YELLOWSTONE AND UPPER STILLWATER RIVER VALLEYS
HAVE WEAKENED AS SURFACE PRESSURES INCREASE LEE OF THE
DIVIDE...AND HAVE CANCELLED THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THESE AREAS.
RIDGE ALOFT WILL KEEP SUNNY AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY. LATEST RUC FORECASTS MIXING TO 600MB TODAY WHICH SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO SEE WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S TODAY.
TEMPERATURES IN BILLINGS AND MILES CITY WILL BE CLOSE TO RECORD
LEVELS TODAY WHICH WOULD BE TWO DAYS IN A ROW FOR MILES CITY.
WINDS TODAY WILL BE MUCH WEAKER THAN FRIDAY WITH SOME MODELS
SHOWING WINDS BECOMING LIGHT ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WITH
SUNNY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES THIS WARM HOWEVER WILL LIKELY
SEE SOME AFTERNOON THERMAL WIND GUSTS IN THE 25 MPH RANGE. RIDGE
BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN SUNDAY WITH UPPER FLOW INCREASING AND
TURNING SOUTHWESTERLY AS NEXT PACIFIC SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE WEST
COAST. MODELS ONCE AGAIN SHOW GOOD MIXING ALONG WITH PLENTY OF
SUN FOR SUNDAY WHICH SHOULD ONCE AGAIN PUSH TEMPERATURES TOWARD
RECORD LEVELS ACROSS THE AREA. MIXING ACROSS WESTERN ZONES MAY
PULL DOWN SOME PRETTY GUSTY WINDS FROM ALOFT IN THE AFTERNOON AND
BUMPED WIND SPEEDS UP TO WINDY CATEGORY FOR THESE AREAS. PACIFIC
COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. WHILE THERE IS A DECENT PUSH OF PACIFIC MOISTURE
WITH THIS SYSTEM...MOST OF THE ENERGY PIVOTS TO THE NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA KEEPING DOWNSLOPE WIND GRADIENT IN PLACE. AS A
RESULT HAVE ONLY CHANCE POPS IN PLACE FOR WESTERN ZONES FOR NOW
WITH THIS SYSTEM.
FIRE WEATHER...WITH THE UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS FIRE
CONCERNS ARE HEIGHTENED ACROSS THE AREA. STRONG MIXING AND
OCCASIONAL THERMAL WIND GUSTS TO 25 MPH COULD RESULT IN INCREASED
FIRE BEHAVIOR TODAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY WILL BE STRONGER
AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WHICH MAY RESULT IN DIFFICULT
CONTROL CONDITIONS WEST OF A ROUNDUP TO SHERIDAN LINE SHOULD A
FIRE DEVELOP. CONDITIONS TODAY DO NOT WARRANT ANY FIRE HIGHLITES
BUT SUNDAY WILL HAVE TO BE LOOKED AT CLOSELY FOR WESTERN FIRE
ZONES. ANYONE PLANNING TO BURN THIS WEEKEND SHOULD TAKE EXTRA
PRECAUTIONS DUE TO THE WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS. CHAMBERS
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...
DID NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST AS MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT WITH UPCOMING PATTERN. A SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE NE THROUGH
THE REGION ON MON WHILE ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WEAKENS OVER THE
AREA. PULLED BACK THE POPS TO JUST THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AS THIS
WEAKENING TREND HAS BEEN CONSISTENT FOR AWHILE. SW FLOW WILL THEN
OVERTAKE THE AREA BEFORE ANOTHER WAVE MOVES THROUGH N MT TUE NIGHT.
THE WAVE WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. KEPT THE GOING
POPS W OF KBIL ON TUE AND OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA TUE
NIGHT. WEAK UPPER RIDGING/SW FLOW WILL BRING JUST A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS WED THROUGH FRI. THE NEXT
PACIFIC TROUGH TAKES SHAPE FRI NIGHT AND MODELS DIFFERED IN HOW THEY
HANDLED THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
THE GFS SWINGS ENERGY NE THROUGH THE AREA...WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS
THE TROUGH OFF TO THE W. HAD LOW POPS FROM KBIL W FRI NIGHT...THEN
DUE TO THE LARGE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE PATTERN EVOLUTION...WENT WITH
CLIMATOLOGY POPS FOR SAT AND SAT NIGHT. WITH NO COLD AIR IN
SIGHT...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE. AT THIS TIME...THE
WARMEST DAYS APPEARED TO BE ON THU AND FRI WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO BE WELL INTO THE 60S. ARTHUR
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND TONIGHT OVER THE AREA. EXPECT
GUSTY SW SURFACE WINDS AT 20 TO 30 KT OVER KLVM AND THE BEARTOOTH
FOOTHILLS THIS MORNING. ARTHUR
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 070 040/068 036/056 039/064 036/060 040/067 042/068
0/U 00/B 11/B 11/N 20/B 00/B 11/B
LVM 063 038/063 030/049 037/059 029/055 032/061 034/057
0/N 00/N 31/N 12/W 20/B 00/B 11/B
HDN 070 036/069 034/057 035/065 034/064 038/066 043/068
0/U 00/U 10/B 00/N 20/B 00/B 00/U
MLS 071 036/071 036/055 037/067 035/058 038/065 043/069
0/U 00/U 10/B 00/B 20/B 00/B 00/U
4BQ 071 035/069 035/058 036/065 036/062 036/065 039/069
0/U 00/U 00/B 00/B 00/B 00/U 00/U
BHK 070 036/069 035/055 034/064 033/059 037/064 041/068
0/U 00/U 00/U 00/B 00/B 00/U 00/U
SHR 067 033/066 031/056 035/063 034/058 033/062 040/062
0/U 00/U 00/B 00/B 00/B 00/U 00/U
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
655 AM EST SAT MAR 10 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN ON SUNDAY... AND CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER EASTERN MICHIGAN IS ARCING AROUND
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND SOUTH INTO VA/NC. DRIER AIR HAS
FILTERED IN THE THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...BUT
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE STILL LESS THAN 5 DEGREES ALONG AND EAST OF
I-95. SOME PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS HAVE DEVELOPED FROM FAYETTEVILLE
TO ROANOKE RAPIDS. THE HRRR MODEL APPEARS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON
THE CURRENT CONDITIONS...SHOWING THE STRATUS AND FOG EXPANDING
EASTWARD BUT ALSO ERODING FROM THE WEST AS DRIER AIR FINALLY PUSHES
INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN BY 12Z. AFTER SUNRISE...CLEAR SKIES WILL
PREVAIL AROUND THE REGION AS HEIGHTS BUILD ALOFT AND THE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. 1000-850MB
THICKNESSES AROUND 1318M SUPPORT HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW MOS
VALUES....WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN COOLER NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
TODAY...52 TO 57 NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST. OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING SHOULD OCCUR TONIGHT...WITH LOWS LIKELY DIPPING INTO THE
UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30S CWA-WIDE.
A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN SUNDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH WEAKENS AND
SLIPS SOUTH TO JUST OFF THE NC COAST. SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW
WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP...BUT THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL STILL BE
DRAPED ACROSS THE STATE...SO SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY
LIGHT AND VARIABLE. 1000-850MB THICKNESSES ARE FORECAST TO RISE 20M
TO AROUND 1340M...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN HIGHS REACHING TO LOWER
60S. INCREASING HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW EJECTING
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING CIRRUS INTO THE WESTERN CWA LATE
SUNDAY...LEADING TO PARTLY O MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT.
THIS COMBINED WITH INCREASING DEWPOINTS IN THE RETURN FLOW WILL KEEP
LOWS SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER...UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 255 AM SATURDAY...
FOR MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT: DEEP RIDGING STARTS OUT THE WORK WEEK...
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS AND
AN AMPLIFIED MID LEVEL RIDGE ORIENTED ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
THE LIGHT LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH AND THE
RESULTING UPWARD SURGE IN SURFACE DEW POINTS ALONG WITH THE STABLE
AIR IN THE LOWEST 1-2 KM WILL FOSTER DEVELOPMENT OF LOW STRATUS AND
FOG TO START THE DAY. THIS SHOULD MIX OUT BY MID MORNING DUE TO THE
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AS THE SURFACE HIGH CENTER SHIFTS FURTHER
OFF THE COAST. BUT ANY MORNING SUNSHINE WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS HIGH
CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY THICKEN WITH LOWERING BASES MONDAY AS THE CLOSED
LOW NOW OVER SE AZ MOVES NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH WI AND THE U.P. OF MI
INTO ERN ONTARIO. MODELS AGREE QUITE WELL ON RAPIDLY INCREASING
PRECIPITABLE WATER MONDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT AS THE MOIST AIR CURRENTLY
OVER THE NW GULF AND TX COAST (AS SEEN ON BLENDED TPW IMAGERY) GETS
DRAWN TO THE NORTH THEN NNE INTO NC... WITH PW VALUES OVER NC RISING
FROM NEAR NORMAL TO 200-250 PERCENT OF NORMAL IN JUST 12-18 HRS.
DESPITE THE IMPROVING MOISTURE... FORCING FOR ASCENT REMAINS MEAGER
AS THE TROUGH DAMPENS CONSIDERABLY WHILE TRACKING THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY... GENERATING SCANT DPVA. A CLIMATOLOGICALLY WEAK UPPER JET
OF 60-70 KTS OVER THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST AND NEW ENGLAND WILL
PROVIDE LITTLE TO NO UPPER DIVERGENCE IN ITS RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
OVER NC THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT... AND MOIST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IS ALSO
VERY WEAK TO NONEXISTENT AS THE WEAKENING LOW LEVEL JET GETS
DEFLECTED TO OUR NORTH. GIVEN THE HIGH INFLUX OF PW EXPECTED AND
BASED ON MODEL TIMING... BELIEVE WE MAY SEE SOME LIGHT PRECIP ON THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE MONDAY
NIGHT... BUT THE LACK OF FORCING AND THE SHIFT OF 850 MB WINDS TO
WESTERLY SUPPORTS LITTLE MORE THAN A CHANCE OF VERY LIGHT SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES. EXPECT SKIES AREAWIDE TO TREND TO MOSTLY CLOUDY MONDAY
AND CLOUDY MONDAY NIGHT. THICKNESSES AROUND 15 METERS ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERED BY CLOUD COVER SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70...
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW STATISTICAL GUIDANCE. WARM LOWS OF 50-54. -GIH
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 250 AM SATURDAY...
FOR TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER AIR WILL CONTINUE
TO ADVECT INTO NC... AND THE LATEST MODEL OUTPUT SUGGESTS THAT
PATCHY SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE
FRONT HOLDS JUST TO OUR NW. POLAR STREAM ENERGY DROPS INTO THE
DEAMPLIFYING TROUGH OVER THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER TUESDAY
MORNING... CAUSING A RESTRENGTHENING AND EVOLUTION INTO A CLOSED MID
LEVEL LOW OVER THE UPPER ST LAWRENCE BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT... AND
THIS AMPLIFICATION WILL BE AUGMENTED BY A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE
WHICH EASES THROUGH NC LATE TUESDAY. WHILE THIS INCREASINGLY
CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE NORTHEAST AND MIDATLANTIC REGION WILL HELP
PUSH THE SURFACE FRONT TO THE SSE THROUGH NC TUESDAY NIGHT... LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE IS APT TO BE SMALL GIVEN
THE DECREASING SURFACE WINDS. LIFT MECHANISMS ONCE AGAIN APPEAR TO
BE MINOR OR ABSENT... SO WILL KEEP POPS EARLY ON TUESDAY SMALL...
ENDING NW TO SE BY LATE IN THE DAY AS MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
NORTHWESTERLY AND THE MID-UPPER LEVELS START TO DRY OUT AND
STABILIZE. THICKNESSES INDICATE HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S... IN LINE
WITH THE EARLIER FORECAST HIGHS. LOWS ONCE AGAIN 50-54.
FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: MID LEVEL RIDGING ONCE AGAIN BUILDS
OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND CAROLINAS FROM THE WEST... AS THE ST
LAWRENCE LOW MOVES OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND AND CANADIAN
MARITIMES WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. MODELS
ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON THIS PATTERN WITH MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
THICKNESSES AND CONTINUED POSITIVE AO AND NAO... WHICH FAVORS WARM
WEATHER OVER NC. EACH MORNING`S LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES ARE 40-50
METERS ABOVE NORMAL WITH LITTLE DAY-TO-DAY CHANGE IN THE VERTICAL
THERMAL STRUCTURE... WHICH SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80
EACH DAY. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S. -GIH
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 655 AM SATURDAY...
A FEW PATCHES OF STRATUS DRIFTING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
COASTAL PLAIN WILL IMPACT KFAY AND KRWI THROUGH 13Z...BUT SHOULD
THEN MOVE SOUTH AND DISSIPATE BY 13-14Z. STRATUS DRIFTING TOWARD
KFAY MAY CAUSE A BRIEF PERIOD DO IFR CEILINGS DOWN TO 700FT...WHILE
HIGHER BASED STRATUS NEAR KRWI SHOULD DEPART THE TERMINAL AREA BY
13Z. AFTERWARD...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE STATE FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEASTERLY WINDS VARY
FROM 5KT IN THE WEST TO AROUND 10KT IN THE EAST.
OUTLOOK...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST OF THE CAROLINA COAST
SUNDAY...LEADING TO RETURN FLOW AND A CHANCE OF STRATUS AND MVFR TO
IFR CEILINGS THROUGH EACH MORNING THIS WEEK. IN ADDITION...A FEW
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK FRONT DROPS
SOUTH INTO NC.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...SMITH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
1032 AM MST SAT MAR 10 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1031 AM MST SAT MAR 10 2012
THE NRN FRINGE OF THE CLOUD MASS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOSED LOW
CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER SWRN NEW MEXICO REACHES THE SRN COLORADO
BORDER. THE CLOSED LOW IS BEGINNING TO EJECT NORTHEAST...BUT ENERGY
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER CIRCULATION NICKS THE ERN SAN JUAN
MOUNTAINS IN RETURN FLOW. THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE
THAT SHOWERS WILL FORM OVER LA PLATA AND ARCHULETA
COUNTIES...POSSIBLY EXTEND AS FAR WEST AS MESA VERDE NATIONAL
PARK. THE HRRR MODEL HAS BEEN DRY BUT AS BEEN TRENDING TOWARDS AN
INCREASE OF SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. AR OF
17Z...MUCH OF THIS AREA IS CLEAR BUT MOST OF NWRN NEW MEXICO
INCLUDING FARMINGTON IS CLOUDY. HAVE BOOSTED POPS INTO THE CHANCE
CATEGORY FOR THIS AREA...BUT DRIER WITH ISOLATED FLURRIES FOR THE
NWRN SAN JUANS.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA...SUNNY CONDITIONS
PREVAILS WITH ABOVE TEMPS ABOVE SEASONAL VALUES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM MST SAT MAR 10 2012
DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS...THE CLOSED UPPER LOW HAS ROTATED FROM
SOUTH-CENTRAL NM TO SOUTHEAST AZ. IT WILL CONTINUE ITS COUNTER-
CLOCKWISE ROTATION BACK INTO SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO LATE THIS
MORNING. THE LOW WILL THEN SWING OVER LAS CRUCES THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE EJECTING NORTHEAST TONIGHT WITH THE LOW CENTER REACHING
THE WESTERN OK PANHANDLE BY AROUND SUNRISE SUNDAY. MOISTURE
ROTATING AROUND THE LOW HAS INCREASED OVER OUR SOUTHERN EDGE EARLY
THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST CORNER. EXPECT CLOUDS
TO CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTHEAST CORNER THROUGH THE DAY...AND EVEN
INTO THIS EVENING AS THE LOW SHIFTS EAST...THEN NORTHEAST...
KEEPING THAT SECTOR OF OUR FORECAST AREA THE CLOSEST IN PROXIMITY.
THE FLOW...SOUTHEAST INITIALLY...THEN BECOMING NORTHEAST LATE THIS
EVENING...IS NOT ALL THAT FAVORABLE FOR OUR SIDE OF THE SAN JUANS.
BUT A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING DUE TO THE
INCREASED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AS THE LOW EJECTS. ALSO EXPECT
SOME CLOUDS TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE DIVIDE DURING THE
AFTERNOON IN THE WRAP AROUND FLOW.
THE BULK OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...WITH POSSIBLY A LITTLE
COOLING OVER THE SOUTHEAST EDGE DUE TO MORE CLOUDS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM MST SAT MAR 10 2012
BY SUNDAY EVENING THE CLOSED LOW SHOULD BE OVER KANSAS AND
NEBRASKA WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS OVER ALL OF EASTERN
UT AND WESTERN CO. MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL
REMAIN BENEATH THE WESTERN PORTION OF A BIG RIDGE THAT WILL COVER
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH WILL
BE POUNDING THE WEST COAST NORTH OF SAN FRANCISCO FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK. THIS TROUGH DEEPENS ALONG THE WEST COAST THROUGH
THURSDAY AND CONTINUOUSLY BUILDS THE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S.
FRIDAY NIGHT A MAJOR PORTION OF THIS TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO MOVE
INLAND...REACHING THE GREAT BASIN FRIDAY NIGHT. THE GFS SHOWS SOME
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE BEING TAPPED BY THE SSW FLOW AHEAD OF THIS
TROUGH AND CARRIED NORTH INTO CO AND EASTERN UT. THE ECMWF DOES
NOT SHOW THIS MOISTURE TAP. THE TWO MODELS DIFFER IN THE CHARACTER
OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT APPROACHES. THE GFS PRODUCES A BROADER TROUGH
WITH MORE SHORTWAVES EJECTING THROUGH IT. THE ECMWF SHOWS MORE OF
A SINGLE LARGE...LONGITUDINAL TROUGH MOVING BODILY THROUGH THE
WESTERN U.S. KEEPING TO THE ASPECTS THE MODELS HAVE IN COMMON...
HAVE INCREASED THE CHANCE OF PRECIP FRI OVER EASTERN UT AND EXTREME
WESTERN CO.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1031 AM MST SAT MAR 10 2012
VFR AT ALL TAF SITES AND AIRFIELDS THROUGH TONIGHT. FOR KDRO AND
KPSO...A PASSING SHOWER MAY TEMPORARILY LOWER CIGS BKN025. FOR THE
SAN JUAN MOUNTAIN PASSES...EXPECT TERRAIN TO BE OCCASIONALLY
OBSCURED FROM AREAS OF SNOW. IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH DISSIPATING
CIGS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 06Z TONIGHT.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...PF
SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM....CC
AVIATION...PF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
255 PM EST SAT MAR 10 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
EASTBOUND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY, SEASONABLE CONDITIONS INTO
TONIGHT, AND MILD TEMPERATURES SUNDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM,
TRAVELING NORTHEAST FROM KANSAS TO THE GREAT LAKES, WILL BRING
RAIN SHOWERS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY A DRY, MILD
SPELL INTO LATE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WILL ALLOW
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT TO BE NEAR NORMAL LEVELS, WHICH IS
SUPPORTED BY RECENT GFS AND NAM MOS AND GFS LAMP AND HRRR MODEL
OUTPUT.
RECENT SREF MODEL OUTPUT SHOWS SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A WARM UP SUNDAY, WITH STILL FEW
CLOUDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES CAN BE AS MUCH AS 10 DEGREES WARMER
THAN NORMAL, PER CONSENSUS OF RECENT GFS AND NAM MOS. LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT CAN LIKEWISE BE UP TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BLEND OF RECENT SREF, CMC, AND ECMWF MODEL OUTPUT SHOW A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM, MOVING NORTHEASTWARD FROM KANSAS TO THE GREAT
LAKES, WILL PUSH A WARM FRONTAL BAND OF SHOWERS EASTWARD THROUGH
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY DAYTIME MONDAY, AND A WEAKER OCCLUDED COLD
FRONTAL BAND OF SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT.
NAM MODEL PROFILES SUGGEST THERE MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO
INCLUDE MENTION OF A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.
CLOSELY CONCURRING GFS AND NAM MOS SHOW LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT CAN BE
UP TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL. DESPITE THE CLOUD INCREASE
AND RAIN PROSPECTS, BLEND OF GFS AND NAM MOS CONTINUE TO SHOW
HIGHS MONDAY TO BE SIMILAR TO SUNDAY AND AS MUCH AS 10 DEGREES
WARMER THAN NORMAL. POST-SYSTEM DRYING WILL YIELD DECREASING
CLOUDS DAYTIME TUESDAY. WITH THE JETSTREAM FLOW ALOFT NOT
SUPPORTING ANY POST-SYSTEM COOLING, NAM AND GFS MOS SHOW HIGHS
TUESDAY CAN BE MORE THAN 15 DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NAEFS AND ECMWF MODEL OUTPUT SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL JETSTREAM
PATTERN BECOMING ORIENTED SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE UNITED
STATES THIS PERIOD, WHICH WILL PROVIDE MILD TEMPERATURES INTO THE
WEEKEND.
MIDWEST HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS INTO THURSDAY. A
SERIES OF GULF-MOISTURE-FED WARM FRONTS WILL BRING SHOWERS AT
TIMES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
FORECASTED TEMPERATURES TO BE MORE THAN 20 DEGREES WARMER THAN
NORMAL PER HPC-PREFERRED CONSENSUS OF GFS MOS, AND ECMWF AND NAEFS
MODEL OUTPUT.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXPECT VFR WITH NO MORE THAN CIRRUS PATCHES INTO SUNDAY. SURFACE WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT, AND THEN SOUTHERLY AT NO MORE THAN 8 KTS
DAYTIME SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH FRONTAL BANDS OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
1114 AM EST SAT MAR 10 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
EASTBOUND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY, SEASONABLE CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON, AND MILD TEMPERATURES SUNDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, TRAVELING
FROM KANSAS TO THE GREAT LAKES, WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE PASSING EASTWARD THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
THIS AFTERNOON, EXPECT LOTS OF SUNSHINE WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING
TO NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS, BASED ON RECENT SATELLITE AND SURFACE
DATA, AND HRRR AND GFS LAMP MODEL OUTPUT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
PER RECENT NAM MODEL OUTPUT, HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE THE FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.
BLEND OF GFS AND NAM MOS SHOW LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE 5 TO 10
DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A WARM UP SUNDAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES AS MUCH AS 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL. LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT CAN LIKEWISE BE UP TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL.
BLEND OF RECENT SREF, CMC, AND ECMWF MODEL OUTPUT SHOW A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM, MOVING NORTHEASTWARD FROM KANSAS TO THE GREAT LAKES, WILL
PUSH A WARM FRONTAL BAND OF SHOWERS EASTWARD THROUGH THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY DAYTIME MONDAY. DESPITE THE CLOUD INCREASE AND RAIN
PROSPECTS, BLEND OF GFS AND NAM MOS CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGHS MONDAY
TO BE SIMILAR TO SUNDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BLEND OF SREF, CMC, AND ECMWF MODEL OUTPUT SHOW A BAND OF SHOWERS,
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM`S OCCLUDED COLD FRONT
MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING.
NAEFS AND ECMWF MODEL OUTPUT THEN SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL JETSTREAM
PATTERN BECOMING ORIENTED SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE UNITED
STATES, WHICH WILL PROVIDE MILD TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND.
MIDWEST HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS LATE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. A SERIES OF GULF-MOISTURE-FED WARM FRONTS WILL BRING
SHOWERS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXPECT VFR WITH NO MORE THAN OCCASIONAL CIRRUS INTO SUNDAY.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AT NO MORE THAN 8 KTS.
OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH FRONTAL BANDS OF SHOWERS MONDAY INTO
MIDDAY TUESDAY.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1237 PM EST SAT MAR 10 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EST SAT MAR 10 2012
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW PROGRESSIVE UPR
FLOW ACROSS NAMERICA WITH DEPARTING UPR TROF/COLD AIRMASS OVER
QUEBEC DOWNSTREAM OF ZONAL FLOW FM WRN CAN INTO NW ONTARIO. 12Z-24Z
H3 RISES OVER 200M FM NW ONTARIO INTO THE GREAT LAKES INDICATE THE
COLD AIR TO THE E IS RETREATING. 00Z H85 TEMPS RANGED FM -24C AT
MOOSONEE ONTARIO TO -15C AT YPL...-14C AT GRB...AND -9C AT INL TO A
BALMY 10C AT BISMARCK AND 12C AT GLASGOW MONTANA WITHIN DOWNSLOPED
PACIFIC AIRMASS IN THE NRN PLAINS. A BAND OF MID CLDS STRETCHING FM
NW ONTARIO INTO MN/UPR MI AND WI ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAD IN THE
SW FLOW BTWN SFC HI PRES OVER LOWER MI AND LO PRES EMBEDDED IN THE
ZONAL FLOW AND NW OF LK WINNIPEG. THE AREAL EXTENT OF THIS MID CLD
IS BEST DEPICTED BY THE HIER RH SHOWN ON THE NAM 285-290K ISENTROPIC
SFCS /H8-65/. BUT SINCE THE 00Z INL RAOB SHOWS A VERY DRY SFC-H85
LYR BLO THE MID LVL MSTR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAD...THERE HAS BEEN
NO PCPN UNDER THE CLD BAND. AWAY FM THE MAIN BAND OF
WESTERLIES...THERE IS A CUTOFF LO OVER THE DESERT SW WITHIN THE
SUBTROPICAL BRANCH.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EST SAT MAR 10 2012
TODAY...AS THE COLD AIR TO THE E CONTINUES TO RETREAT...THE WAD MID
CLD WL SHIFT STEADILY TO THE E PER THE NAM FCST RH ON THE 285-290K
SFCS. DESPITE THE DRYNESS OF THE LLVLS SHOWN ON THE INL/GRB RAOBS...
SOME GUIDANCE DOES GENERATE LGT QPF OVER THE NE HALF OF THE CWA THIS
MRNG UNDER THE SHARPER ISENTROPIC ASCENT. OPTED TO RETAIN SCHC POPS
FOR THIS AREA EARLY. THE BACK EDGE OF THE HIER RH IS PROGGED TO
CLEAR ERY ARND 15Z. THE INCOMING WARM AIR IS FCST TO PUSH H85 TEMPS
BY 00Z SUN TO 8-10C OVER THE W TO 4-6C OVER THE E. ALTHOUGH THERE
MAY BE SOME HI CLDS... THE EXCESSIVE DRYNESS SHOWN ON THE BISMARCK
RAOB SUGS THERE WL BE NO LO CLDS. THERE WL BE A GUSTY S WIND THIS
MRNG UNDER H925 WINDS FCST UP TO 40-50KTS ON THE SRN FLANK OF PRES
FALL PASSING OVER LK SUP. SINCE THE LLVL FLOW IS FCST TO VEER MORE
TO THE W THRU THE DAY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A SFC WARM FNT...
PREFER TO TREND MAX TEMPS TOWARD THE WARMER GFS MOS. IN FACT...
MIXING TO JUST H9 ON THE GFS FCST SDNGS YIELDS HI TEMPS PEAKING IN
THE 50S OVER MUCH OF THE W HALF OF THE CWA...SEVERAL DEGREES HIER
THAN SHOWN BY THE MOS FCST. A MORE PERSISTENT SW LLVL FLOW OVER THE
E CLOSER TO THE DEPARTING COLD AIR AND BLOWING OFF THE COOL WATERS
OF LK MI WL HOLD TEMPS IN THE 40S IN THAT AREA. THE MORE WLY FLOW WL
ALSO KEEP THE KEWEENAW A BIT COOLER. GOING FCST HI TEMPS NEED LTL
ADJUSTMENT.
TNGT...UNDER BLDG UPR RDG...THE PRES GRADIENT IS FCST TO SLACKEN
QUITE A BIT...ALLOWING FOR MUCH LIGHTER WINDS. UNDER A MOCLR SKY...
EXPECT A HEALTHY DIURNAL TEMP FALL...WITH TEMPS FALLING TOWARD THE
LO END OF GUIDANCE GIVEN THE DRYNESS OF THE BISMARCK RAOB.
SUN...EXPECT ANOTHER MOSUNNY...WARM DAY WITH UPR RDG OVHD AND H85
TEMPS ARND 8C. SOME HI CLDS WL ARRIVE FM THE SW LATER IN THE DAY IN
ADVANCE OF UPR LO LIFTING OUT FM THE DESERT SW. MIXING TO JUST H9 ON
GFS FCST SDNGS WOULD RESULT IN HI TEMPS PEAKING NEAR 60 OVER AT
LEAST THE INTERIOR W HALF. BUT IN CONTRAST WITH TDAY THOUGH...THE
PRES GRADIENT WL BE RATHER WEAK...ALLOWING FOR LK BREEZE FORMATION/
COOLING NEAR THE SHORES. WITH THE PREVAILING SW FLOW...AREAS OVER
THE E DOWNWIND OF LK MI WL BE COOLER AS WELL.
SUN NGT...EXPECT THICKENING CLDS AS NEGATIVELY TILTED SHRTWV APRCHS
FM THE SW. THE EVNG WL BE DRY WITH LINGERING LLVL DRY AIR...BUT
ARRIVAL OF DEEPER MSTR/UPR DVGC IN EXIT REGION OF SUPPORTING H3 JET
MAX/H85-7 FGEN AFT 06Z WL BRING THE THREAT OF RA IN FM THE SW. THERE
ARE NO PTYPE WORRIES WITH THIS EVENT GIVEN UNSEASONABLE WARMTH OF
THE AIRMASS. ALTHOUGH INITIAL DRYNESS OF THE LLVLS WL INHIBIT FOG
FORMATION... LLVL MSTR SURGE FCST AFT 06Z WL BRING IN SOME FOG OVER
MELTING SN PACK...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OVER THE CNTRL THAT UPSLOPE
WITH LLVL SE WIND.
.LONG TERM...(MODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EST SAT MAR 10 2012
UPPER LOW PULLING OUT OF THE SW STATES TONIGHT WILL APPROACH THE
AREA ON SUN NIGHT AND CROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON MON. AT THE
SFC...BROAD TROUGH FROM A LOW CENTERED OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES
WILL PUSH NE ACROSS THE AREA ON MON. MODELS SEEM TO HAVE COME INTO
DECENT AGREEMENT ON TIMING/TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW...WHICH LEADS TO
ABOVE NORMAL CONF ON PCPN TIMING.
MAIN PCPN OUT AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED WITH THE BEST
H925-700 WAA AND 290-300K ISENTROPIC ASCENT MOVES NE ACROSS THE CWA
LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING THE BULK OF
THE PCPN WITH THE SYSTEM. COULD SEE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE LATE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTN AS MID LVL DRY AIR PUSHES THROUGH BEFORE THE
UPPER LOW MOVES OVERHEAD IN THE AFTN AND INCREASES MOISTURE AGAIN.
THIS PRODUCES ANOTHER SURGE OF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WRN
HALF OF THE CWA. POTENTIAL STORMS OVER THE CNTRL/SRN MISS VALLEY
WILL LIKELY KEEP SOME OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE FROM MAKING IT INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LKS. BUT THE WARM/MOIST AIR FROM THE GULF WILL PRODUCE
PWATS NEAR 300 PERCENT OF NORMAL WITH THE WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW. THUS...EXPECT AROUND 0.2-0.3IN OF RAIN WITH
THE INITIAL SURGE OF WAA. FELT THE EXISTING POPS IN THE DEFINITE
CATEGORY WERE GOOD FOR THE MORNING AND JUST TRIED TO ADD SOME
ADDITIONAL TIMING FOR THE DRY SLOT TOWARDS MID DAY AND BETTER
CHANCES OVER THE W IN THE AFTN.
WITH THE MELTING SNOW...RAIN...AND ABUNDANT LLVL MOISTURE...WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION AREAS OF FOG FOR MON MORN. BUT HAVE TAPERED IT
OFF HEADING INTO THE AFTN...AS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWING LLVL MIXING
DIMINISHING THE POTENTIAL. DID LEAVE THE FOG IN OVER THE E WITH THE
SW FLOW AND WARM/MOIST AIR OVER LK MI...MAINLY E OF A LINE FROM
MUNISING TO ESCANABA.
MON NIGHT...WITH SFC TROUGH AND UPPER LOW QUICKLY MOVING NE ON MON
NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL START TO EDGE INTO THE AREA
OVERNIGHT MON FROM SRN MN. WILL LIKELY STILL SEE SOME WRAP AROUND
SHOWERS IN THE EVENING FROM THE UPPER LOW ENERGY...BUT WILL DIMINISH
FROM SW TO NE WITH THE UPPER LOW QUICKLY MOVING NE. THIS QUICK
MOVEMENT...ALONG WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE...WILL LEAD TO A SHARP
CLEARING LINE MOVING IN OVERNIGHT. ONE ITEM OF NOTE IS THE NAM
SHOWING LLVL MOISTURE BELOW THE DEVELOPING INVERSION AT 2.5KFT.
COULD LEAD TO SOME LINGERING FOG OR LOW CLOUDS BEHIND THE EXITING
UPPER LOW. GFS IS NOT AS PRONOUNCED AND WITH THE NAM TENDING TO
OVERDO LLVL MOISTURE...WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE FCST AT THIS TIME.
DAYS 4 THROUGH 7 /TUES THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFYING OVER THE CENTRAL/ERN CONUS WILL LEAD TO A
WARM/DRY DAY ON TUES AS A SFC HIGH SLIDES ACROSS THE CWA. COULD LEAD
TO SOME LK BREEZES DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE SFC RIDGE MOVING
THROUGH. BUT AT THIS FAR OUT...WILL NOT TRY TO GET TOO FANCY ON
TEMPS/WINDS ALONG LK SUPERIOR. AS FOR HIGHS...MIXING TOWARDS
H875 YIELDS HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 ALONG THE WI BORDER.
HAVE KEPT TEMPS IN THE 40S NEAR GRAND MARAIS...WHERE NW WINDS OFF LK
SUPERIOR WILL LINGER INTO THE EARLY AFTN HRS AND LIMIT WARMING.
HIGH SHIFTS E TUES NIGHT AND WED. SHORTWAVE IN THE NRN STREAM
UPPER FLOW RUNNING FROM THE PAC NW TO HUDSON BAY WILL SWEEP A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON WED AFTN. MAIN ENERGY FROM THE
SHORTWAVE AND THE COLD FRONT REMAINS WELL NNW OF THE AREA IN NRN
ONTARIO. THIS...COMBINED WITH LIMITED MID LVL MOISTURE...THINK THE
PCPN CHANCES ARE LOW. BUT...DID LEAVE SLIGHT CHANCES OVER THE SE
HALF OF THE CWA...AS ECMWF/GEM/GFS TRY TO PULL MLCAPE VALUES
TOWARDS 200 J/KG. ML LAPSE RATES ARE FAIRLY STRONG...AROUND
7-8C/KM...BUT THE MID LVL DRY AIR AND CAP NEAR H850 WILL LIKELY
KEEP DEVELOPMENT FROM OCCURRING. BEST CHANCES WILL BE S OF THE
CWA...IN THE SE HALF OF WI...BUT FELT KEEPING THE SLIGHT CHANCES IN
NEAR THE WI BORDER WAS REASONABLE. MIXING AGAIN TO NEAR H875 /9C/ ON
WED WILL PRODUCE HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 60S AWAY FROM THE COOLER FLOW
OFF LK MI. STRONGER SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL LIMIT
CONCERNS OF COOLING DUE TO LK BREEZES NEAR LK SUPERIOR. THIS SWRLY
FLOW WILL LIKELY LEAD TO DOWNSLOPE WARMING NEAR LK SUPERIOR...SO
HAVE BUMPED TEMPS UP SOME IN THOSE AREAS.
COLD FRONT SLIDES E ON WED NIGHT AND COULD LEAD TO A SLIGHT COOL
DOWN ON THURS. ECMWF/GEM KEEP IT WARM IN THE 50/60S WHILE THE GFS
HAS IN THE 40S. HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS THE WARMER ECMWF...SINCE IT
TRADITIONAL PERFORMS MUCH BETTER IN WELL ABOVE NORMAL PATTERNS AND
DUE TO THE COLD BIAS OF THE GFS. THUS...HAVE TEMPS IN THE
50S...EXCEPT OVER THE KEWEENAW AND NEAR LK SUPERIOR OVER THE NCTNRL
AND E...WHERE LIGHT WINDS OFF LK SUPERIOR WILL KEEP TEMPS COOLER.
OTHERWISE...UPPER RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE WARM/DRY WX FOR THE UPPER GREAT LKS. MODELS
ARE TRYING TO SHOW THE UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL HAVE BEEN STATIONED IN
THE PACIFIC OFF THE W COAST OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS TO TRY AND MOVE
INLAND THIS WEEKEND...AMPLIFYING THE RIDGE EVEN FURTHER. AS THIS
TROUGH CONTINUES E NEXT WEEK...COULD SEE A TRANSITION TO A LITTLE
MORE ACTIVE WX AND MORE NORMAL TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM EST SAT MAR 10 2012
VFR CEILINGS AND VIS SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS /WITH JUST
A FEW HIGH CLOUDS/. THE MAIN THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS...WHICH WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...WINDS NEAR OF 30 TO 40KTS SHOULD REMAIN A COUPLE THOUSAND
FEET ABOVE THE SFC THROUGH THE 09Z SUNDAY AT IWD AND SAW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EST SAT MAR 10 2012
EXPECT A S GALE UP TO 40 KTS OVER THE E HALF OF LK SUP INTO THIS
AFTERNOON UNDER TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN DEPARTING HI PRES
TO THE SE AND LO PRES MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THE ARRIVAL OF
A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CAUSE DIMINISHING WINDS LATER TODAY
THRU SUN.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
ON MONDAY AND EXIT ON MONDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
TO MOVE OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY. WINDS DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD
STAY BELOW 25KTS. A COLD FRONT FROM A LOW IN NRN ONTARIO WILL BRUSH
THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT
SHOULD PRODUCE WINDS IN THE 20-25KT RANGE. THINK THE MARINE LAYER
WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER WINDS ALOFT TO REACH THE SFC.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EST SAT MAR 10 2012
LITTLE HAS CHANGED ON THE HYDROLOGY FRONT OVER THE LAST COUPLE
DAYS. STILL EXPECT WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS OVER THE NEXT 7
DAYS...WHICH WILL TAKE A SIGNIFICANT BITE OUT OF THE SNOW PACK...IF
NOT EATING ALL OF IT.
TRADITIONALLY NEED ABOUT 2 DAYS OF TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-UPPER 40S
OR ABOVE AND TD/S ABOVE FREEZING TO RIPEN THE SNOWPACK. WARM TEMPS
EARLIER THIS WEEK DID JUST THAT OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH THE
COOL DOWN OVER THE LAST TWO DAYS HELPED SLOW/END THE MELT.
THUS...WITH THE TEMPS THIS WEEKEND EXPECTED TO EXCEED THAT...SHOULD
EASILY HAVE A RIPE SNOWPACK FOR MELTING THIS WEEKEND. THE RIPE
SNOWPACK WILL BE AIDED BY RAIN EXPECTED LATE SUN NIGHT AND INTO
MON...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE BETWEEN 0.25-0.40IN OF
PRECIPITATION. THEREFORE...EXPECT TO SEE RIVERS START TO RISE
SUN INTO MON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEK UNTIL THE SNOW IS
MELTED. OVERNIGHT LOWS DON/T LOOK TO GET BELOW FREEZING AFTER
TONIGHT...SO SHOULD SEE A FAIRLY STEADY MELT. WILL LIKELY SEE SNOW
PACK GONE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA BY THE END OF THIS WEEK...EXCEPT FOR
WOODED/SHADED LOCATIONS.
WITH THIS FAIRLY FAST MELT AND RUNOFF...EXPECT SOME OF THE RIVERS
ACROSS THE AREA TO EXCEED THEIR BANKS BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
PERSONS LIVING NEAR RIVERS AND STREAMS SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST
RIVER CONDITIONS AND USE CAUTION IF WALKING ALONG RIVER
BANKS...ESPECIALLY THE CHOCOLAY RIVER...TRAP ROCK
RIVER...AND THE STURGEON RIVER IN WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN.
FINALLY...NOT MUCH ICE HAS BEEN NOTED BY OBSERVERS ON THE FASTER
FLOWING RIVERS OVER NRN UPPER MI. BUT THE FORD RIVER...BOTH AT HYDE
AND THE MOUTH AT LK MI...STILL HAS A GOOD ICE COVER THAT LEADS TO
SOME CONCERN FOR ICE JAM POTENTIAL WITH THE FASTER RUNOFF. ALTHOUGH
LIMITED SNOW WAS NOTED NEAR LK MI...THERE IS STILL 5-10IN OF SNOW
AND NOHRSC ESTIMATED AROUND 1.5IN OF LIQUID TOWARDS THE HEADWATERS
THAT WILL MELTED OVER THE COMING DAYS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ249>251-266-
267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ248-250.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ221.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KC
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...KF
MARINE...KC/SRF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
318 PM CST SAT MAR 10 2012
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPERATURES AND FOG POTENTIAL.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...BUT ALL HAVE PERFORMED POORLY WITH
TEMPERATURES. WILL USE A BLENDED SOLUTION WITH NO REAL MODEL
PREFERENCE FOR TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE...NOTING THAT EVEN THE RUC IS
STRUGGLING.
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES TODAY HAVE RESULTED IN SIGNIFICANT SNOW
MELT AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DEW POINTS IN THE
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. HIGH MOISTURE...COMBINED WITH CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WIND OVERNIGHT WILL RESULT IN FOG DEVELOPMENT. AREAL
COVERAGE AND TIMING UNCERTAINTIES EXIST...BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE AREAS OF DENSE FOG WITH VISIBILITY BELOW 1 SM.
FOR NOW...ADDED AREAS OF FOG FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FROM 03
UTC TONIGHT UNTIL 15 UTC TOMORROW MORNING. EVENING SHIFT WILL NEED
TO MONITOR OBSERVATIONS FOR POSSIBLE ADVISORY CONDITIONS.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT NOT EXPECTED TO COOL MUCH BELOW CURRENT DEW
POINT VALUES...SO WILL GO WITH LOWS FROM THE UPPER 20S TO THE
LOWER 30S.
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL BE TRICKY WITH SEVERAL COMPETING FACTORS.
EARLY MORNING FOG COULD DELAY TEMPERATURE RISE...BUT INCREASING
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WIND AND MARCH SUN ANGLE SHOULD HELP LIFT/BURN OFF
FOG RATHER RAPIDLY. THE REST OF THE DAY WILL SEE SOME INCREASING
CIRRUS...BUT REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY. SURFACE INVERSION SHOULD NOT BE
NEARLY AS STRONG AS TODAY WITH BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AROUND 20 KTS
AND TEMPERATURES ALOFT FROM +10 TO +12 C. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
CLOSE TO THOSE OBSERVED TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S. HIGHER TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE...BUT WILL BE CAUTIOUS/
CONSERVATIVE WITH DEGREE OF WARMING AT THIS TIME GIVEN SOUTHERLY
WIND DIRECTION AND POSSIBLE FOG IMPACTS.
AZ/NM CUT-OFF LOW EJECTS NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE MN ARROWHEAD
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION.
TEMPERATURES ARE WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN AND FAVORED AREA IS
STILL ALONG AND EAST OF THE VALLEY GIVEN WARM AIR ADVECTION/
ISENTROPIC LIFT...FOLLOWED BY WRAP AROUND MOISTURE. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS THROUGH MONDAY UP TO 0.3 INCH ARE POSSIBLE. WILL HAVE TO
WATCH FOR POTENTIAL IMPACTS ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS GIVEN
CONCURRENT SNOW MELT. HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL STILL BE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL FROM THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S...BUT SLIGHTLY COOLER
ACROSS MN WHERE CLOUDS AND RAIN SHOULD LIMIT RISE.
A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT ONLY IMPACTS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER
LOWS TUESDAY MORNING FROM THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S AND BREEZY
NORTHWEST WIND. COOLER AIR IS QUICKLY REPLACED BY THERMAL RIDGE ALOFT
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...ALLOWING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB BACK INTO
THE 50S AND LOWER 60S.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING INTO MANITOBA TUESDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT DOWN INTO THE CWA LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
BEHIND IT. EVEN WITH THE COLD FRONT TEMPS WILL STILL BE WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF
THE PERIOD...WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AT THE SFC AS LOW
PRESSURE SETS UP TO OUR NORTHWEST. 850MB TEMPS GET WELL INTO THE
TEENS C...AND WITH WARM TEMPS FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK BEFORE...THERE
WILL NOT BE MUCH SNOW LEFT TO KEEP TEMPS DOWN. WILL CONTINUE TO
KEEP HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS MILD IN THE UPPER 30S INTO THE 40S. WITH TEMPS
STAYING ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK...SNOW MELT AND RUN OFF WILL PICK UP
SPEED AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH RIVER LEVELS CLOSELY.
BY SATURDAY...THERE START TO BE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE OVERALL
PATTERN WITH THE GFS EJECTING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES INTO SOUTHERN CANADA WHILE THE ECMWF IS MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED
AND SHOWS NO SHORTWAVE. THE GFS HAS PLENTY OF MOISTURE STREAMING UP
FROM THE GULF AND A FEW OF THE NAEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE PRECIP
FOR SATURDAY...SO KEPT THE LOW POPS THAT ALLBLEND GAVE US.
SHOWALTERS ARE NEGATIVE...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY THUNDER MENTION
FOR NOW AND JUST INCLUDE RAIN SHOWERS.
&&
.AVIATION...
WITH WARM TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON MELTING SNOW...DEWPOINTS HAVE
RISEN INTO THE LOWER 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. WITH LIGHT
WINDS...INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE MELTED SNOW...AND
CLEAR SKIES...CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO LOOK FAVORABLE FOR FOG
FORMATION. VIS AND CEILINGS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH 04-06Z OR
SO...THEN GO DOWN TO IFR OR LOWER LATE TONIGHT. SOME OF THE FOG
COULD BE DENSE WITH VIS UNDER A MILE. FOG WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE
SOMETIME AROUND THE 15-17Z TIME FRAME.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
ROGERS/JR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
245 PM CST SAT MAR 10 2012
.DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 300 PM CST/
ADDED LAST FIRE WEATHER ZONE TO RED FLAG WARNING PRIOR TO 19Z...AS
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THAT ZONE WERE ALSO FALLING TO BELOW 25 PERCENT RH
AND WINDS THERE GUSTING TO NEAR 25 MPH OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER. NORTHERN
PARTS OF THAT ZONE NOT LIKELY TO HIT RED FLAG CRITERIA...BUT LATEST
OBS ARE SHOWING RH VALUES AT KHON FLIRTING WITH 25 PERCENT AS OF 20Z
AS WELL. DEW POINTS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY CLIMBING ACROSS OUR SD COUNTIES
AS THE HRRR ALLUDED TO ON ITS EARLIER RUNS...WHICH LENDS CONFIDENCE
TO USING THIS FOR SOME GUIDANCE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. INCREASED
DEW POINTS NOT ENOUGH TO RAISE RELATIVE HUMIDITY SIGNIFICANTLY IN
OUR SOUTHWEST THOUGH...AS TEMPS WARMING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S
ARE KEEPING RH VALUES AT OR BELOW 20 PERCENT. SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA
NOT YET DOWN TO 25 PERCENT BUT GETTING VERY CLOSE AS OF 20Z AND
STRONGEST WINDS STILL SEEN IN THAT AREA WITH GUSTS TO 35+MPH MUCH OF
THE AFTERNOON. SO ALL IN ALL LOOKS LIKE A GOOD RED FLAG WARNING
THROUGHOUT THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
AS FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT DEW POINTS TO JUMP A BIT AND WIND GUSTS TO
DROP OFF WITH SUNSET...SO EXPIRATION OF RED FLAG WARNING AT 6PM
LOOKS OK. SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD STAY FAIRLY STEADY IN 10-15MPH MOST
AREAS TONIGHT. SLIGHTLY HIGHER SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...BUT NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS STRONG AS LAST NIGHT AS LOW
LEVEL JET NOT AS STRONG ACROSS THIS AREA. THE MODEST WINDS AND SOME
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH MORE SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FETCH
WILL HOLD TEMPS UP A BIT FROM LAST NIGHT...AND HAVE BUMPED LOWS UP A
FEW DEGREES INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S.
APPROACH OF UPPER LOW SUNDAY WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. STILL THE INITIAL INTRUSION OF SHOWERS ALOFT WILL
HAVE TROUBLE GETTING TO THE SURFACE AND WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE
PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE MORNING. OTHERWISE EXPECT THE UPPER LOW AND
ITS HALF DECENT DYNAMICS TO COMBINE WITH THE INCREASING MOISTURE
AND MEAGER THERMAL SUPPORT TO PRODUCE A HIGH PROBABILITY/ LOW QPF
EVENT OF RAIN FOR OUR EASTERN FORECAST AREA...THOUGH NOT SO LOW THAT
A TENTH OF AN INCH OR TWO COULD NOT BE SPIT OUT. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
MAY GET INTO THE WEST ALSO. TIMING IS MAINLY SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH
SYSTEM MOVING OUT STEADILY MONDAY AND DRY OVER THE AREA BY NOON. MID
AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MOST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WHICH GOES INTO THE COMING WEEKEND. STEADILY
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PUMP UP LOW TEMPERATURES WHILE
DAYTIME HIGHS ARE IN THE 60S AND 70S. BASICALLY MID TO LATE APRIL
WEATHER. AS MAJOR TROUGH DIGS OVER THE WEST COAST THERE COULD BE A
WEAK WAVE OR TWO COME UP AHEAD OF TROUGH IN SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER
FLOW. ACCORDINGLY HAVE MENTIONED A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR
SATURDAY. THIS IS AHEAD OF MAIN SYSTEM AND THE DRY WARM SPELL COULD
GO THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER THE AIR WILL BE GETTING MORE
UNSTABLE IN ADDITION TO THE MOISTURE INCREASE...SO THE GUIDANCE
INDICATION OF PRECIPITATION THREAT WILL BE FOLLOWED FOR NOW. THREAT
OF SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM AND SEVERE WEATHER EVENT CONTINUES TO BE
BEYOND FORECAST PERIOD AS 00Z GFS RUN WAS NOT ACCEPTED HERE.
/WILLIAMS
&&
.AVIATION.../FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...THOUGH 3-4KFT
CEILINGS WILL BE MOVING INTO KSUX AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD AHEAD OF
ADVANCING UPPER LEVEL LOW. WINDS ARE THE GREATEST AVIATION CONCERN
FOR THIS TAF PERIOD. SOUTHWEST SURFACE GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KTS LIKELY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN MOST AREAS...STRONGEST THROUGH NORTHWEST
IOWA/SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. FAR NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA
AROUND KHON EXPECTED TO SEE LIGHTER WIND SPEEDS. LOW LEVEL JET
INCREASES AGAIN OVERNIGHT ABOVE STRENGTHENING SURFACE INVERSION.
HOWEVER...SPEEDS ALOFT EXPECTED TO BE LOWER THAN EARLY THIS
MORNING...THUS WILL NOT HAVE MENTION OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IN
10/18Z TAFS.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR IAZ300-301.
MN...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ900.
NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NEZ249.
SD...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR SDZ255>258.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
1118 AM CST SAT MAR 10 2012
.DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 1118 AM CST/
DRY RELATIVE HUMIDITY/DEW POINTS AND ASSOCIATED FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS ARE MAIN FOCUS THIS MORNING. AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION...MODELS REALLY NOT HANDLING LOW LEVEL/SURFACE MOISTURE
WELL AT ALL...WITH INCOMING 12Z NAM/GFS INITIALIZING 3-6F TOO HIGH
AT 12Z...AND NAM/RUC STILL 5-8F TOO HIGH WITH 15Z DEW PONITS IN MOST
AREAS. THESE MODELS CONTINUE TO INCREASE SURFACE DEW POINTS INTO THE
30S/40S THROUGHOUT THE DAY WHICH IS DIFFICULT TO EXPLAIN GIVEN VAST
EXPANSE OF CURRENT DEW POINTS IN THE TEENS/20S THROUGH NEBRASKA AND
MOST OF KANSAS. SLIGHTLY HIGHER LOWER 30S IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS THUS
FAR THIS MORNING...BUT SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD KEEP THESE
VALUES SHUNTED OFF TO OUR EAST/SOUTHEAST. SO FAR THIS MORNING HRRR
SEEMS TO BE PROVIDING BEST GUIDANCE IN OUR AREA. HOWEVER...IT SHOWS
STREAM OF HIGHER DEW POINTS INTO OUR SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL CWA BY MID
AFTERNOON. EARLY HOURS OF HRRR RUNS WERE TOO MOIST IN SOURCE REGION
OF THIS MOISTURE PLUME THROUGH 16Z. HOWEVER 17Z SURFACE OBS IN THIS
REGION OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO/FAR WESTERN KANSAS/FAR SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA STARTING TO SHOW SOME INCREASE IN DEW POINTS SO WILL HAVE
TO MONITOR THAT AREA CLOSELY FOR THE AFTERNOON. FOR NOW...WITH LACK
OF CONFIDENCE IN ANY OF THE NEW GUIDANCE...WILL STICK WITH PREVIOUS
FORECAST FOR DEW POINTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES THUS FAR
HAVE BEEN RISING A LITTLE FASTER THAN FORECAST AND ADJUSTED HOURLY
GRIDS THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT LITTLE CHANGE TO GOING HIGHS
AT THIS TIME. WINDS ALSO PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK WITH ALL AREAS EXCEPT
MIDDLE JAMES RIVER VALLEY SEEING GUSTS IN 20-30KT RANGE AS OF 17Z.
WITH GUSTINESS ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS MIDDLE BIG SIOUX VALLEY/I-29
CORRIDOR NEAR/NORTH OF SIOUX FALLS...OPTED TO ADD SDZ257 INTO THE
EXISTING RED FLAG WARNING. ALSO PULLED THE START TIME BACK TO LATE
MORNING AS SOUTHERN AREAS ALREADY SEEING RH VALUES DROPPING BELOW 25
PERCENT AND EASTERN AREAS ALREADY GUSTING OVER 30MPH. UPDATED GRIDS
HAVE BEEN SENT...AND UPDATED FIRE WEATHER PRODUCTS OUT. NO UPDATES
TO ZFP/PFM AT THIS TIME.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 400 AM CST/
MAIN CONCERN TODAY IS FIRE WEATHER WITH MILD AND DRY AIRMASS
SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA. 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM UPSTREAM IN
KLBF...KDDC...KTOP AND KOMA QUITE DRY IN THE LOW LEVELS. MODELS
SUGGEST WEAK LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASING AFTER 18Z
ACROSS THE AREA. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SUFFERING MIXING ISSUES...AND
THEREFORE DEW POINT GUIDANCE WAS MUCH HIGHER THAN ANY OF THE
OBSERVATIONS WOULD SUGGEST. AS SUCH...CUT DEW POINTS BY 10-15
DEGREES OVER GUIDANCE. WITH STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE SOUTH
AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...HAVE WENT AHEAD AND
UPGRADED MUCH OF THE AREA TO RED FLAG WARNING. DID NOT INCLUDE THE
TWO NORTHWEST ZONES IN EASTERN CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AS WINDS WILL BE
WEAKER THERE. RH VALUES WILL STILL PROMOTE VERY HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE
DANGER ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.
SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE THIS EVENING...AND AS THEY
TAKE ON A MORE PURE SOUTHERLY FLAVOR SHOULD SEE FAIRLY HEARTY
MOISTURE RETURN TO THE AREA. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY AS UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES FROM THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION. HAVE INCREASED POPS EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY WITH THIS FEATURE.
THEREAFTER...CONDITIONS RETURN TO WARM AND DRY WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY
WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. WILL LIKELY SEE ADDITIONAL FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS THEN...AS HIGH TEMPERATURES APPROACH NEAR RECORD LEVELS.
IN THE LATTER PERIODS(WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...A WARM
PATTERN...FAIRLY WELL AGREED UPON BY THE VARIOUS MODELS...WITH FLAT
RIDGING EARLY BECOMING A LITTLE MORE PRONOUNCED LATE. A WEAK WAVE
NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER WILL ALLOW A WEAK COLD FRONT TO SLIP SOUTH
ON WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL DO LITTLE MORE THAN DECREASE HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. AFTER THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST AND
ALLOW SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP GRADUALLY FROM THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY...LIKELY BECOMING A BIT BREEZY FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...LOWS
MAINLY IN THE 40S WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S. /08
&&
.AVIATION.../FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...THOUGH 3-4KFT
CEILINGS WILL BE MOVING INTO KSUX AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD AHEAD OF
ADVANCING UPPER LEVEL LOW. WINDS ARE THE GREATEST AVIATION CONCERN
FOR THIS TAF PERIOD. SOUTHWEST SURFACE GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KTS LIKELY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN MOST AREAS...STRONGEST THROUGH NORTHWEST
IOWA/SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. FAR NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA
AROUND KHON EXPECTED TO SEE LIGHTER WIND SPEEDS. LOW LEVEL JET
INCREASES AGAIN OVERNIGHT ABOVE STRENGTHENING SURFACE INVERSION.
HOWEVER...SPEEDS ALOFT EXPECTED TO BE LOWER THAN EARLY THIS
MORNING...THUS WILL NOT HAVE MENTION OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IN
10/18Z TAFS.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR IAZ300-301.
MN...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ900.
NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NEZ249.
SD...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR SDZ255-257-258.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
252 PM CST SAT MAR 10 2012
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
252 PM CST SAT MAR 10 2012
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON THE EXPECTED PRECIPITATION SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT.
CURRENTLY AS OF 20Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED THE MAIN BELT OF THE WESTERLIES TRAVERSING FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA...THEN DOWN INTO TROUGHING OVER
NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER...IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM...AN UPPER LOW WAS
PRESENT OVER NEW MEXICO WITH RIDGING BUILDING UP AHEAD OF IT OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. MOISTURE SO FAR AHEAD OF THIS UPPER LOW
HAS ADVECTED INTO OKLAHOMA...NOTED BY SHOWERS...LOWER LEVEL STRATUS
AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. A MUCH DIFFERENT SITUATION
EXISTS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO OUR REGION...THOUGH. 12Z
SOUNDINGS FROM BIS...ABR...OAX AND MPX ALL DEPICTED A VERY DRY
ATMOSPHERE. 850MB TEMPS HAVE WARMED FAIRLY DRAMATICALLY SINCE LAST
NIGHT TOO...WITH MPX JUMPING FROM -1C AT 00Z TO 13C AT 12Z. PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE...BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS FROM 30 TO 45 MPH
AND THE DRY AIR HAS ALLOWED FOR TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 60S
OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. EXCEPTION TO THIS IS OVER THE
SNOWPACK IN TAYLOR COUNTY WHERE READINGS ARE STILL IN THE MID 50S.
DEWPOINTS HAVE STRUGGLED TO FALL MUCH SO FAR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...
THOUGH. THINKING THIS IS DUE TO MOISTURE STILL IN THE SOIL
EVAPOTRANSPIRATING. CONDITIONS ARE STILL CONDUCIVE FOR FIRES...
THOUGH...NOTED BY A FIRE THAT OCCURRED NEAR MANKATO MN SEEN ON MPX
RADAR.
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC IS PROGGED
TO SLIDE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...CAUSING THE UPPER LOW IN NEW
MEXICO TO LIFT UP INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE SPEED OF THIS UPPER
LOW EJECTION HAS REMAINED NEARLY CONSISTENT FOR THE PAST FEW
DAYS...THOUGH THE SPEED AT WHICH MOISTURE/PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE
UPPER LOW HAS SLOWED DOWN. IN FACT...THE 10.12Z ECMWF...GFS...NAM...
CANADIAN AND UKMET ARE ALL NOW DRY FOR SUNDAY. GIVEN THE CURRENT DRY
AIRMASS...THINK THE DRIER TREND IS THE WAY TO GO AND REMOVED ANY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR SUNDAY. WE SHOULD SEE SOME MID/HIGH CLOUD
COVER ADVECT IN FROM THE SOUTH DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...THOUGH. A
WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT IS PROGGED TONIGHT THAN WHAT OCCURRED THIS
MORNING...BUT A 5 TO 15 MPH SOUTHWEST WIND LOOKS TO PERSIST. THE
WIND WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES UP SOMEWHAT...THOUGH THE DRY
AIRMASS DOES LEND ITSELF FOR BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING.
THEREFORE...HAVE KEPT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST LOWS ABOUT THE SAME.
HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE TRICKY BECAUSE OF THE INCOMING CLOUDS. CERTAINLY
THE DRY AIR AND A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND ARE HELPFUL TO HAVE
ANOTHER WARM DAY...IN ADDITION TO 850MB TEMPS HOLDING BETWEEN 8-10C.
DECIDED TO LEAN TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE MET/ECMWF/REGIONAL CANADIAN
GUIDANCE GIVEN GOOD PERFORMANCE IN THESE ABOVE NORMAL SCENARIOS.
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
EJECTING NORTHEASTWARD...CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY MORNING.
BY 00Z TUESDAY...THE UPPER LOW SHOULD BE LOCATED OVER EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR. IMPRESSIVE CHANGE IN 500MB HEIGHTS FOR THE FORECAST AREA.
FROM 00-12Z MONDAY...THESE HEIGHTS FALL AROUND 150 METERS. SO
DEFINITELY GOOD FORCING IN THIS TIME PERIOD FOR PRECIPITATION. ON
THE FLIP SIDE...BETWEEN 12Z MONDAY-00Z TUESDAY...THE HEIGHTS RISE
40-100 METERS...INDICATING DECENT SUBSIDENCE. WHEN LOOKING AT MODEL
QPF OUTPUT THE SAME SIGNAL SHOWS UP...WHERE SHOWERS SPREAD SOUTH TO
NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN END SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST MONDAY. VERY
GOOD AGREEMENT EXISTS AMONGST THE MODELS FOR PRECIPITATION...SO HAVE
RAISED PRECIPITATION CHANCES UP TO 100 WITH A LITTLE EXTRA TIMING
INFORMATION INCLUDED. AS FAR AS QPF AMOUNTS GO...PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES CLIMB TO 250-300 PERCENT OF NORMAL...THOUGH MUCH OF THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT ENDS UP SHUNTED OFF TO THE EAST. VERY
LITTLE IF ANY CAPE IS PROGGED DUE TO MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES. NO
HINTS AT ANY UPPER JET FORCING EITHER. THEREFORE...THINK QPF AMOUNTS
OVERALL WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT...ON THE ORDER OF 0.25-0.5 INCHES. WITH
THE MOISTURE COMING UP...EXPECT LOWS TO STAY ON THE MILD SIDE SUNDAY
NIGHT. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL TEND TO
KEEP THINGS COOLER ON MONDAY...RELATIVELY SPEAKING FOR MID MARCH
GIVEN THAT HIGHS ARE STILL GOING TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...500MB HEIGHTS ARE PROGGED TO RISE
FURTHER...DUE TO THE UPPER LOW MOVING FARTHER AWAY...AND YET ANOTHER
UPPER TROUGH FORECAST TO DIG INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AS
SUCH...WE GET A SURGE OF WARMER AIR AT 850MB TEMPS TO ADVECT INTO
THE FORECAST AREA...CLIMBING FROM 6-10C AT 12Z TUESDAY TO 10-12C AT
00Z WEDNESDAY. OTHER THAN A LITTLE LINGERING STRATUS EARLY MONDAY
NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LOW...AS WELL AS A FEW MID CLOUDS TO
PASS THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY...MUCH OF THIS TIME PERIOD LOOKS TO
BE CLEAR. IN FACT...SOUNDINGS ON TUESDAY LOOK PRETTY DRY WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW US TO WARM NICELY. SO AFTER A NIGHT IN THE MID 30S TO
LOW 40S MONDAY NIGHT...ANTICIPATING TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND BACK
WELL INTO THE 60S. IN FACT...SOME LOCATIONS COULD REACH 70...
ESPECIALLY IN FAR WESTERN SECTIONS.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
252 PM CST SAT MAR 10 2012
AS STATED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS AND STILL HOLDS TRUE...THE MAIN
STORY IS THE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH. PRETTY MUCH THE ENTIRE LONG
TERM PERIOD...ACCORDING TO ALL 10.00Z/12Z MODELS...FEATURES
SOUTHWEST FLOW FROM SAY NORTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO HUDSON BAY...
ALLOWING FOR RIDGING AND DOWNSLOPED PACIFIC AIR TO DOMINATE THE
EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE U.S.. TOWARDS THE WEEKEND...THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW AMPLIFIES OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AS DEEP TROUGHING FORMS ALONG
THE WEST COAST. IF ANYTHING...THIS COULD SEND EVEN WARMER AIR
TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA. 850MB TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM
PERIOD ARE PROGGED AT 2 TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. AS
SUCH...WE COULD BE DEALING WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE RECORD
HIGHS EVERY DAY. IN GENERAL 850MB TEMPS HOLD BETWEEN 10-14C...WITH
THE WARMEST OF THESE ON WEDNESDAY. WITH WHAT LOOKS TO BE PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE THROUGHOUT...STAYED TOWARDS THE HIGH END OF ALL AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE AND FORECASTED HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. THESE
ARE READINGS ARE MORE SIMILAR OF MID MAY THAN MID MARCH.
REGARDING PRECIPITATION CHANCES...THESE ARE RESTRICTED TO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THEN FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A
DYING COLD FRONT PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA. NOT SURE IF THIS FRONT WILL CONVECT...BUT THE 10.12Z
ECMWF DOES SHOW A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT. THIS
SHORTWAVE COMBINED WITH A STREAM OF 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
INSTABILITY COULD RESULT IN SOME CONVECTION. MAINTAINED JUST A 20
PERCENT CHANCE IN FAR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. FOR FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...A STREAM OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY COMING UP OUT OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO MAY COMBINE WITH SOME SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO INITIATE CONVECTION. HARD TO TIME AND EXACT
DETAILS VERY UNCERTAIN...THUS CHANCES ARE KEPT AT A MODEL CONSENSUS
20-40 VALUE.
IF THE CFS MODEL IS RIGHT...WHICH IT HAS BEEN DOING FAIRLY WELL THE
PAST FEW MONTHS...THE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH LOOKS TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF APRIL.
CERTAINLY IN THE LATEST 10.12Z ECMWF...THE WARM AIR AT LEAST STICKS
AROUND THROUGH NEXT MONDAY AND LIKELY WELL BEYOND.
&&
.AVIATION...THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY
1125 AM CST SAT MAR 10 2012
BIGGEST CONCERN THROUGH THE PERIOD IS WIND THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND MIXING THROUGH 875MB YIELDING GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE 20-30 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 40
MPH. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE RAPIDLY BY SUNSET AND
WITH LOSS OF HEATING/MIXING. OTHERWISE...VFR/CLEAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TONIGHT...THEN WILL SEE A SLOW INCREASE IN MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
AFTER 15Z SUNDAY AS A MID-LEVEL LOW MOVES OUT OF THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ONSET OF RAIN FROM THIS
SYSTEM EXPECTED TO BE AT THE KRST/KLSE TAF SITES SOMETIME SUNDAY
EVENING...THEN LASTING INTO MONDAY AS THE MID-LEVEL LOW PASSES
OVER THE REGION. APPEARS THERE WILL BE LOWERING OF
CEILING/VISIBILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH BETTER DETAILS
FORTHCOMING IN LATER TAF ISSUANCES.
&&
.CLIMATE...THROUGH SATURDAY
252 PM CST SAT MAR 10 2012
WE ARE APPROACHING RECORD HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON. WITH A FEW MORE
HOURS TO GO...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR EITHER TYING OR BREAKING.
STATIONS THAT HAVE LONG PERIODS OF RECORD...OVER 115 YEARS...1894
RECORDS EXIST FOR DECORAH /66F/...LA CROSSE /67F/...MEDFORD
/53F/...AND WINONA /64F/. MEANWHILE THOSE WITH SHORTER DATA
BASES...THE TEMPERATURES WILL THREATEN RECORDS EITHER SET IN 1967
OR 1977.
LOOKING AHEAD...A STRING OF NEAR RECORDS OR RECORD HIGHS APPEAR
LIKELY FOR TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AND COULD EVEN GO BEYOND
THIS. IN ADDITION...WE COULD ALSO APPROACH OR BREAK RECORD HIGH
MINIMUMS. AN ABNORMALLY STRONG RIDGE AND WARM AIR IS PROGGED TO
REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
READINGS LOOK TO BE MORE SIMILAR OF MID MAY VERSUS MID MARCH. STAY
TUNED TO SEE HOW WARM WE ACTUALLY GET. RECORDS HAVE BEEN POSTED ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...THROUGH MONDAY
252 PM CST SAT MAR 10 2012
SIMILAR TO THE EARLIER HYDROLOGY DISCUSSION...SOME MINOR CONCERNS
ABOUT WHETHER ANY FLOODING WILL OCCUR ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN
AS A RESULT OF A MELTING SNOW PACK AND RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. QPF AMOUNTS ARE STILL FORECAST BETWEEN 0.25-0.5 INCHES OVER
A LONG PERIOD WITH NO THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO OCCUR. WITH GRADUAL
MELTING DUE TO THE WARMER TEMPERATURES...CURRENTLY EXPECT TO SEE
SOME RIVER RISES ALONG THE BLACK AND MAYBE TREMPEALEAU RIVERS...BUT
PROBABLY NOT UP TO FLOOD STAGE AT THIS POINT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...THROUGH SUNDAY
252 PM CST SAT MAR 10 2012
RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WEST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES HAVE FALLEN TO 25 TO 30
PERCENT AS OF 20Z AND A LITTLE MORE FALL IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. WINDS REMAIN BLUSTERY WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST. WITH LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING...ANTICIPATING
CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE FAIRLY RAPIDLY.
LOOKING AHEAD TO SUNDAY...MORE MOISTURE STREAMING FROM THE SOUTH AND
INCREASING CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON SHOULD KEEP THE RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES FROM DROPPING BELOW 30 PERCENT. LOWEST HUMIDITIES ARE
PLANNED OVER SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN...WHICH IN THIS AREA THE FUELS ARE
A LITTLE MORE MOIST. WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO BE QUITE A BIT
LIGHTER THAN THOSE SEEN TODAY. THEREFORE...CONDITIONS FOR FIRES WILL
NOT BE AS GOOD AS THEY WERE TODAY.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
252 PM CST SAT MAR 10 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ079-086>088-
094>096.
IA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR IAZ008>011-018-
019-029-030.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...DAS
CLIMATE...BOYNE/AJ
HYDROLOGY...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1156 AM CST SAT MAR 10 2012
.UPDATE...WIND ADVISORY ISSUED THIS MORNING FOR NORTHEAST
COUNTIES...AS LATEST SOUNDINGS SHOWING UP TO 45 MPH IN THE TOP
HALF OF THE MIXING LAYER. GFS AND RUC SOUNDS ARE PARTICULARLY
AGGRESSIVE...SUGGESTING GUSTS TO NEARLY 50 MPH POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE ALREADY SEEN GUSTS AS HIGH AS 43 MPH AT FOND DU
LAC...SO APPEARS THAT THINGS ARE ON THEIR WAY. WINDS WILL
EVENTUALLY EASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING AS
DAYTIME MIXING IS LOST.
WITH RELATIVELY CALM UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND ONLY A FEW
CIRRUS IN SIGHT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...SKIES EXPECTED TO REMAIN
NEARLY CLOUD FREE THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES FORECAST BY
PREVIOUS SHIFT HAVE BEEN GOOD THROUGH THE MORNING. 925MB TEMPS OF
5 TO 8 C AND NEAR ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES SUGGEST HIGHS TODAY IN THE
UPPER 50S IN THE WEST AND LOWER 50S EAST. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IS
WARMER THAN THIS BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES. HOWEVER...GIVEN WAA
PATTERN IN SOUTHWEST FLOW...THINK PREVIOUS FORECAST OF LOW 60S IN
THE WEST AND MID-UPPER 50S IN THE EAST WAS ONLY SLIGHTLY
OVERDONE...SO BUMPED TEMPS DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES.
&&
.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...WINDY AFTERNOON IN STORE FOR SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN...AS WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE UNDER TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT. SFC WINDS WILL BACK OFF LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
DAYTIME MIXING IS LOST...OPENING THE DOOR AGAIN FOR WIND SHEAR.
DECIDED TO KEEP THE WIND SHEAR IN THE TAFS THROUGH THE NIGHT AS 45
KT WINDS EXPECTED AT ABOUT 2 KFT. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
TO CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE DRAWS NEAR...WITH
RAIN AND LOWER CLOUDS MOVING IN DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 AM CST SAT MAR 10 2012/
TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE EWD ACROSS CANADA WITH A 50 TO
60KT SWLY LOW LEVEL JET SHIFTING EWD FROM THE UPPER MS RIVER
VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES. STRONG WARM ADVECTION WILL OCCUR WITH
925 MB TEMPS AND FORECAST TRAJECTORIES YIELDING MAX TEMPS AROUND
60F. GUSTY WINDS TO 35 TO 40 MPH WHICH IS UNDER WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA. PRESSURE GRADIENT TO DECREASE BY TNT BUT STILL ENOUGH OF
A PRESSURE GRADIENT INCLUDING A 40 KT LLJ TO KEEP WINDS GOING AND
THUS RELATIVELY MILD LOW TEMPS. A VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL SUPPORT MO
SUNNY DAY AND A CLEAR NIGHT.
SHORT TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
MEDIUM TO HIGH.
SUNDAY APPEARS TO BE A DRY DAY...AS SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST ANY
APPRECIABLE UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WITH APPROACHING UPPER LOW
SHOULD REMAIN SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA. THUS...EXPECT JUST INCREASING
CLOUDS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. 925MB TEMPERATURES SUPPORT HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 60S AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN...WITH GOOD LOW LEVEL
MIXING. WINDS SHOULD TURN ONSHORE LATE IN THE DAY CLOSE TO
SHORE...KEEPING HIGHS THERE SOMEWHAT COOLER.
UPPER LOW SHIFTS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA
SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN OPENS UP AS IS IT SHIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH
LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY. AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SATURATE
DURING THIS TIME...WITH ROBUST UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION. MAY SEE A
LULL IN THE RAIN MONDAY MORNING WITH DRY SLOT...BUT SHOULD SEE
MORE DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTERNOON WITH INFLUENCE OF PASSING
VORTICITY MAXIMUM.
CONTINUED TO GO WITH HIGH POPS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...TAPERING
OFF AS MONDAY WEARS ON. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE THEN SLIDES INTO THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT...GRADUALLY ENDING THE RAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ON THE MILD SIDE DURING THIS TIME.
LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM
TO HIGH.
WARM AIR ADVECTION KICKS IN AGAIN ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...WITH 925MB TEMPERATURES JUMPING INTO THE LOWER TO MID
TEENS CELSIUS RANGE. GOOD LOW LEVEL MIXING AND SOME SUNSHINE
SHOULD ALLOW FOR HIGHS TO JUMP INTO THE 60S AWAY FROM THE LAKE
TUESDAY...THEN INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS.
COLD FRONT THEN SHIFTS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE GFS SHOWING
SOME MEAN LAYER CAPES AND MOISTURE DURING THIS TIME...SO CONTINUED
TO MENTION THUNDER IN FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD
AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...A 50-60 KT LLJ WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION
TODAY WITH LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR POSSIBLE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WI THIS
AM BEFORE WINDS AND MIXING INCREASE THERE. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS
THEN MARGINAL FOR TNT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT DECREASES AND MIXING
CEASES WITH A 40 KT LLJ REMAINING OVER THE AREA. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
MARINE...A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM UNTIL 6 PM. A STRONG
SWLY 50-60KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL SHIFT FROM THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY
INTO THE GREAT LAKES TODAY IN RESPONSE TO STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVING
EWD ACROSS CANADA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG LOW LEVEL JET
WILL PRODUCE WINDY CONDITIONS OVER THE LAKE INCLUDING WIND GUSTS TO
GALE FORCE. HIGH WAVES WILL OCCUR ESPECIALLY NORTH OF NORTH POINT
LIGHTHOUSE. THE GUSTY WINDS AND HIGH WAVES WILL LINGER INTO THE
EVENING SO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY NEED TO FOLLOW THE CURRENT
GALE WARNING.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR WIZ051-052-058>060.
LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643>646.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WIMBERLEY/DDV
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...GEHRING
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WOOD