Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 03/09/12
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
440 PM EST WED MAR 7 2012
.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT-THURSDAY...
HIGH PRES OVER THE W ATLC WILL MAINTAIN A TIGHT PGRAD ACRS EAST
CENTRAL FL THRU THU AFTN. STEADY E/SE FLOW WILL PREVAIL BUT WILL
DIMINISH GRADUALLY AS THE HIGH PRES DRIFTS SEAWARD BUT WILL REMAIN
BREEZY ALONG THE COAST.
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS SHOWING 80-85PCT MEAN RH THRU THE H100-H85 LYR
FROM THE CAPE SWD. THIS IS HIGH ENOUGH TO SHOULD SUPPORT ISOLD SHRAS
OVERNIGHT FROM THE CAPE DOWN TO THE N SHORE OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE.
DESPITE THE STRONG ERLY FLOW...LINGERING DRY AIR OVER THE INTERIOR
WILL PREVENT THE SHRAS FROM ADVECTING INTO THE NW HALF OF THE CWA.
EVEN SO...THE MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL MODIFY THIS DRY AIR ENOUGH TO
ALLOW ISOLD SHRAS TO DVLP AREAWIDE ON THU.
COMBINATION OF ONSHORE FLOW AND CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP MIN TEMPS
L/M60S OVER THE INTERIOR (5-10F ABV AVG)...M60S/L70S ALONG THE COAST
(10-15F ABV AVG). NEAR AVG MAX TEMPS THU AFTN...U70S/L80S ALONG THE
COAST...L/M80S INTERIOR.
THU NIGHT-FRI...RIDGE AXIS NORTH OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL BEGIN
TO NUDGE SOUTH AND VEER WINDS SOUTHEASTERLY WHILE DIMINISHING THEM
TO 5 MPH OR LESS BY FRIDAY MORNING. KEPT SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES PINNED
TO THE COAST EXCEPT FOR NEAR THE TREASURE COAST WHERE SHOWER
COVERAGE WILL BE ABLE TO PENETRATE FURTHER INLAND WHERE HIGHER
MOISTURE RESIDES. EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING AS ATMOSPHERE DECOUPLES ALONG WITH AMPLE LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW WILL MAKE FOR OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW-MID 60S ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND MID-UPPER
60S ALONG THE COAST.
RIDGE AXIS SETTLES OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY...ALLOWING WINDS TO
DECREASE TO 5-10 MPH THROUGHOUT THE DAY. PLUME OF ENHANCED MOISTURE
WILL BE DRAWN IN FROM THE BAHAMAS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE ATLANTIC
RIDGE AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE GULF.
PLACEMENT OF THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT INCONSISTENT
IN MODEL RUNS...BUT THE PROXIMITY OF IT TO THE AREA WILL AID IN
MOISTURE ENHANCEMENT AND ALLOW FOR SLIGHT SHOWER CHANCES AREAWIDE.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THEIR WARMING TREND MAKING IT INTO THE
LOW 80S ALONG THE COAST AND MIDDLE 80S INLAND.
WEEKEND (MODIFIED PREVIOUS)...BACK DOOR FRONT SLIDES INTO THE
NORTHERN PENINSULA AND WASHES OUT. COMBINATION OF MOISTURE
APPROACHING FROM NORTH ALONG WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
AFOREMENTIONED MOISTURE PLUME SOUTH WILL KEEP SMALL SHOWER CHANCES
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY. LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
NORTH ON SUNDAY AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR PROPAGATION
OF BOUNDARY IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. ONSHORE WINDS WILL FRESHEN AS
ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST...WHICH SHOULD KNOCK A FEW DEGREES OFF MAX TEMPS BUT STILL
KEEP THEM ABOVE NORMAL IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
MON-WED...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN TO OUR
NORTH AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE. MOISTURE VALUES ARE FORECAST
TO BE LOWER AND MOS POPS ARE NEARLY UNIFORM AT 10-15 PERCENT THROUGH
THE PERIOD SO WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY POPS FOR THIS PERIOD. LITTLE
CHANGE IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION...
THRU 08/00Z...ERLY SFC WNDS 15-20KTS WITH G24-28 KTS...CIGS BTWN
FL040-060. AFT 08/00Z...SCT OCNL BKN BTWN FL030-050 WITH ISOLD -SHRA
PSBL...N OF KISM-KTIX ERLY SFC WNDS BCMG 5-10KTS...S OF KTIX SFC
WNDS 10-15KTS WITH OCNL G20KTS.
&&
.MARINE...
TONIGHT-THURSDAY...HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC WILL MAINTAIN A
FRESH TO STRONG E/SE BREEZE ACRS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO DIMINISH THU AFTN AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS AND DRIFTS SEAWARD.
SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE HOWEVER AS A MODERATE SWELL BEGINS TO
IMPACT THE AREA...6-8FT NEAR SHORE AND 8-10FT OFFSHORE...DOMINANT
PDS 8-9SEC. SCA IN PLACE THRU 08/00Z.
THU NIGHT-FRI...SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DIMINISH FROM 15-20 KNOTS TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS BY FRIDAY EVENING AS RIDGE AXIS SETTLES ACROSS THE
AREA AND RELAXES THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. SEAS WILL ALSO SUBSIDE FROM
6-7 FEET TO 5-6 FEET NEARSHORE AND 7-9 FEET TO 5-8 FEET OFFSHORE
WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST SWELLS OF 9-10 SECONDS.
SAT-SUN (MODIFIED PREVIOUS)...THE WATERS SHOULD START OUT IN A
RELATIVELY LOOSE GRADIENT ON SAT THEN A BACK DOOR FRONT DROPPING
SOUTH OVER THE ATLANTIC IS PROGGED TO GRADUALLY BECOME DIFFUSE...BUT
NORTHEAST/EAST WINDS SHOULD PICK UP TO 15-20 KNOTS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. EAST WINDS ON SUNDAY LOOK TO BE NEAR 15 KNOTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
PREVAILING ONSHORE FLOW THROUGHOUT THE END OF THE WEEK WILL KEEP
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE 40 PERCENT. TRANSPORT WINDS
WILL DECREASE ON FRIDAY BUT PICK UP AGAIN FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 63 78 62 80 / 10 20 10 20
MCO 61 84 62 85 / 10 20 10 20
MLB 67 80 66 82 / 10 20 10 20
VRB 68 80 65 82 / 20 20 10 20
LEE 60 83 62 84 / 10 20 10 20
SFB 62 83 63 83 / 10 20 10 20
ORL 61 84 63 84 / 10 20 10 20
FPR 68 80 66 82 / 20 20 10 20
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
VOLUSIA-INDIAN RIVER-MARTIN-NORTHERN BREVARD-SOUTHERN
BREVARD-ST. LUCIE.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
VOLUSIA-INDIAN RIVER-MARTIN-NORTHERN BREVARD-SOUTHERN
BREVARD-ST. LUCIE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20
NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
SEBASTIAN INLET OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO
VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS
FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET
20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...BRAGAW
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...GUSEMAN/PENDERGRAST
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS TALLAHASSEE FL
614 AM EST Wed Mar 7 2012
.UPDATE...Aviation discussion for the 12Z TAFs.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
08Z water vapor and H4 RUC analysis shows an upper level pattern
consisting of amplified and sharp troughing over the inter-mountain
west, followed downstream by broad longwave ridging over the eastern
half of the CONUS. A weak shortwave impulse is analyzed ejecting
eastward from the main western trough over the southern plains this
morning. Only influence we will see from this impulse is some high
level cirrus streaming overhead to filter the sunshine at times.
Overall the troposphere is still quite dry below this cirrus shown
by the 00Z KTLH sounding.
At the surface, strong 1040mb high pressure centered along the NC
coast continues to ridge back to the west and southwest. Our
position on the southern side of the ridge axis is providing a
steady easterly flow along the NE Gulf coast. The tight gradient is
resulting in a significant nocturnal easterly surge over the coastal
waters this morning, with both buoys gusting to near 30 knots at
times. Similar to Monday night, the breezy conditions are helping to
keep the boundary layer well mixed and our temperatures up. Most
locations are still reporting mid/upper 50s, and do not anticipate
many stations dropping below the upper 40s before sunrise.
&&
.SHORT TERM (Today through Friday)...
Today and Tonight,
Another pleasant and generally dry day upcoming. Weak upper level
ridging will remain in place along the northern Gulf coast, while
surface high pressure is centered well to our NE. On Tuesday we saw
excellent diurnal mixing up to around 800mb, and anticipate similar
mixing conditions today. Mixing up to between 850-800mb will yield
high temperatures generally in the lower to middle 70s. East to
southeast flow should keep temps a few degrees cooler along the
coast from Franklin county westward. Skies will generally end up
partly cloudy as periods of high level cirrus overspread the area
from west to east, and lower level high based cumulus develop in the
fast easterly flow. Hi-res CAM ensembles suggest the development of
a few low topped speed convergence showers across NE Florida/SE
Georgia this afternoon. Not impossible that a brief sprinkle could
make it as far east as the Suwannee River Valley/I-75 Corridor,
however any sprinkles would be of very low impact and will only go
with a silent 10% PoP over our far eastern zones. Due to the strong
easterly flow over the coastal waters, waves refracting back toward
the panhandle coast are expected to produce a high rip current risk
along the panhandle beaches of Walton county. Dry and seasonable
condition tonight with low temps holding in the 50s.
Thursday/Thursday night,
Western U.S upper trough is progged to fracture by Thursday morning
with the southern energy cutting over New Mexico, and the northern
fracture progressing quickly eastward over the Great Lakes/Ohio
Valley. In response to the height falls over the Southern Plains in
advance of the cutoff low, a brief amplification of the ridge over
the Southeastern States will occur. Under the upper ridge we will
experience a dry, pleasant, and even warmer day. 850mb temps rising
to 10-12C and decent diurnal mixing will result in afternoon high
temps rising well into the 70s, with a few 80 degree readings
possible. A weaken gradient during the afternoon hours combined with
the mid/upper 70 temps should result in the development of a feeble
sea-breeze. This flow will again keep temps along the immediate
coast cooler. Upper trough moving into the eastern U.S. Thursday
night/early Friday will begin to break down the upper ridge while
also progressing a weak surface trough into northern AL/GA. At this
time, NWP guidance is in good agreement that any shower activity
associated with this front will remain to our north Thursday night
giving our region a dry and warm overnight period. Low temps in the
mid/upper 50s inland and lower 60s at the coast.
Friday,
Weak upper level impulse will approach the area while the surface
front progresses into our zones. Overall the forcing with this
system is weak which should prevent any organized area of rainfall.
However, with at least some surface focus, and decent instability
progged by the global models(600-1200 J/kg), will expect isolated to
scattered convection during the day. Not expecting a wet forecast,
but those with outdoor activities should plan for the potential of a
passing shower or storm. Outside of the scattered showers, Friday
looks to be a warm and muggy day with temperatures within a few
degrees of 80 away from the immediate coast.
&&
.LONG TERM (Saturday through next Wednesday)...
Overall confidence in this part of the forecast remains below normal
although we are beginning to see at least a modicum of agreement
among a couple of the models. The good news is that the 00Z
operational runs of the GFS and Euro are in better agreement than
last night at this time. Both now show an upper low moving northeast
across the Central Plains at the start of the period with additional
energy hanging back to the southwest. As the plains feature lifts
rapidly northeast toward the Upper Great Lakes by Sunday night, the
southern energy swings east across TX. By Monday, model differences
creep in once again with the GFS bringing a tighter system northeast
up the MS Valley and the new Euro bringing a much weaker system east
across the Gulf states.
At the surface, a front will be positioned just northwest of the
forecast area at the start of the period as an inverted trough
develops over the western Gulf. A strong ridge will build east to
the Mid Atlantic coast on Saturday and force the frontal boundary
through the area and thus returning the forecast area to the
easterly flow regime we are currently experiencing. The ridge will
only slowly drift south into the early to middle part of next week.
However, it does appear to be a deep enough feature to hold any
significant boundaries and upper energy west of the area.
PoPs will be tapered a bit for most periods with a nod toward the
MEX numbers now that the GFS is approximated by the Euro. With few
obvious forcing mechanisms, will hold PoPs mainly in the 20-30
percent range through Tuesday. With the ridging in place for most of
the period, temperature will be above normal for the most part. One
exception will be Saturday when the back door cold frontal passage
will keep max temps in the 60s north of a line from Valdosta to
Dothan. A few of our northeastern zones will not get out of the
lower 60s. Further south, the FL zones will reach the 70s with the
Southeast Big Bend reaching the upper 70s. A moderating trend in
temps will commence across the northern zones on Sunday with
everyone well above normal once again for the Monday through
Wednesday period.
&&
.AVIATION (Through 12Z Thursday)...
VFR conditions are forecast to prevail across the forecast area
until late in the TAF period. The low level easterly flow regime
will continue on the south side of a surface high that is centered
off the Mid Atlantic coast and ridges southwestward to the eastern
Gulf Coast. Areas of stratus are already moving westward across
northeast FL and southeast GA and some of these clouds have already
reached the eastern terminals. We are forecasting a VFR ceiling at
VLD and ABY shortly later this morning. This ceiling may spread west
over the remaining terminals by the end of the day. We have included
the possibility for MVFR conditions developing toward the end of the
TAF period tonight after 08Z. Confidence is better than this morning
that this will actually occur, but we still show the condition as
temporary.
&&
.MARINE...
A tight gradient on the southern periphery of strong 1040mb high
pressure will continue to result in advisory level winds and seas
over the coastal waters this morning. Winds and seas will begin to
subside this afternoon, especially to the east of of Apalachicola.
Another easterly surge is expected tonight, but only to cautionary
levels. Winds and seas will drop below headline criteria later
Thursday into Friday ahead of an approaching weak front. This front
will wash out over the coastal waters during Saturday with moderate
easterly flow re-developing for the second half of the upcoming
weekend.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
An increase in RH today will preclude red flag conditions from being
reached, even across our FL zones. In fact, we see no red flag
events in the offing for the remainder of this week and on into
early next week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 75 52 78 55 80 / 0 0 0 0 20
Panama City 73 57 74 61 74 / 0 0 0 10 30
Dothan 75 53 78 58 78 / 0 0 0 10 40
Albany 73 52 77 57 78 / 0 0 0 10 30
Valdosta 74 52 78 55 80 / 10 0 0 0 20
Cross City 78 52 80 56 81 / 10 0 10 0 20
Apalachicola 69 59 71 62 71 / 0 0 0 0 20
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
GA...None.
FL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EST this afternoon for Coastal
waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL out to 20
NM-Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60
NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.
&&
$$
Synopsis/Short Term/Marine...Mroczka
Long Term/Aviation/Fire Wx...Wool
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TALLAHASSEE FL
320 AM EST Wed Mar 7 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
08Z water vapor and H4 RUC analysis shows an upper level pattern
consisting of amplified and sharp troughing over the inter-mountain
west, followed downstream by broad longwave ridging over the eastern
half of the CONUS. A weak shortwave impulse is analyzed ejecting
eastward from the main western trough over the southern plains this
morning. Only influence we will see from this impulse is some high
level cirrus streaming overhead to filter the sunshine at times.
Overall the troposphere is still quite dry below this cirrus shown
by the 00Z KTLH sounding.
At the surface, strong 1040mb high pressure centered along the NC
coast continues to ridge back to the west and southwest. Our
position on the southern side of the ridge axis is providing a
steady easterly flow along the NE Gulf coast. The tight gradient is
resulting in a significant nocturnal easterly surge over the coastal
waters this morning, with both buoys gusting to near 30 knots at
times. Similar to Monday night, the breezy conditions are helping to
keep the boundary layer well mixed and our temperatures up. Most
locations are still reporting mid/upper 50s, and do not anticipate
many stations dropping below the upper 40s before sunrise.
&&
.SHORT TERM (Today through Friday)...
Today and Tonight,
Another pleasant and generally dry day upcoming. Weak upper level
ridging will remain in place along the northern Gulf coast, while
surface high pressure is centered well to our NE. On Tuesday we saw
excellent diurnal mixing up to around 800mb, and anticipate similar
mixing conditions today. Mixing up to between 850-800mb will yield
high temperatures generally in the lower to middle 70s. East to
southeast flow should keep temps a few degrees cooler along the
coast from Franklin county westward. Skies will generally end up
partly cloudy as periods of high level cirrus overspread the area
from west to east, and lower level high based cumulus develop in the
fast easterly flow. Hi-res CAM ensembles suggest the development of
a few low topped speed convergence showers across NE Florida/SE
Georgia this afternoon. Not impossible that a brief sprinkle could
make it as far east as the Suwannee River Valley/I-75 Corridor,
however any sprinkles would be of very low impact and will only go
with a silent 10% PoP over our far eastern zones. Due to the strong
easterly flow over the coastal waters, waves refracting back toward
the panhandle coast are expected to produce a high rip current risk
along the panhandle beaches of Walton county. Dry and seasonable
condition tonight with low temps holding in the 50s.
Thursday/Thursday night,
Western U.S upper trough is progged to fracture by Thursday morning
with the southern energy cutting over New Mexico, and the northern
fracture progressing quickly eastward over the Great Lakes/Ohio
Valley. In response to the height falls over the Southern Plains in
advance of the cutoff low, a brief amplification of the ridge over
the Southeastern States will occur. Under the upper ridge we will
experience a dry, pleasant, and even warmer day. 850mb temps rising
to 10-12C and decent diurnal mixing will result in afternoon high
temps rising well into the 70s, with a few 80 degree readings
possible. A weaken gradient during the afternoon hours combined with
the mid/upper 70 temps should result in the development of a feeble
sea-breeze. This flow will again keep temps along the immediate
coast cooler. Upper trough moving into the eastern U.S. Thursday
night/early Friday will begin to break down the upper ridge while
also progressing a weak surface trough into northern AL/GA. At this
time, NWP guidance is in good agreement that any shower activity
associated with this front will remain to our north Thursday night
giving our region a dry and warm overnight period. Low temps in the
mid/upper 50s inland and lower 60s at the coast.
Friday,
Weak upper level impulse will approach the area while the surface
front progresses into our zones. Overall the forcing with this
system is weak which should prevent any organized area of rainfall.
However, with at least some surface focus, and decent instability
progged by the global models(600-1200 J/kg), will expect isolated to
scattered convection during the day. Not expecting a wet forecast,
but those with outdoor activities should plan for the potential of a
passing shower or storm. Outside of the scattered showers, Friday
looks to be a warm and muggy day with temperatures within a few
degrees of 80 away from the immediate coast.
&&
.LONG TERM (Saturday through next Wednesday)...
Overall confidence in this part of the forecast remains below normal
although we are beginning to see at least a modicum of agreement
among a couple of the models. The good news is that the 00Z
operational runs of the GFS and Euro are in better agreement than
last night at this time. Both now show an upper low moving northeast
across the Central Plains at the start of the period with additional
energy hanging back to the southwest. As the plains feature lifts
rapidly northeast toward the Upper Great Lakes by Sunday night, the
southern energy swings east across TX. By Monday, model differences
creep in once again with the GFS bringing a tighter system northeast
up the MS Valley and the new Euro bringing a much weaker system east
across the Gulf states.
At the surface, a front will be positioned just northwest of the
forecast area at the start of the period as an inverted trough
develops over the western Gulf. A strong ridge will build east to
the Mid Atlantic coast on Saturday and force the frontal boundary
through the area and thus returning the forecast area to the
easterly flow regime we are currently experiencing. The ridge will
only slowly drift south into the early to middle part of next week.
However, it does appear to be a deep enough feature to hold any
significant boundaries and upper energy west of the area.
PoPs will be tapered a bit for most periods with a nod toward the
MEX numbers now that the GFS is approximated by the Euro. With few
obvious forcing mechanisms, will hold PoPs mainly in the 20-30
percent range through Tuesday. With the ridging in place for most of
the period, temperature will be above normal for the most part. One
exception will be Saturday when the back door cold frontal passage
will keep max temps in the 60s north of a line from Valdosta to
Dothan. A few of our northeastern zones will not get out of the
lower 60s. Further south, the FL zones will reach the 70s with the
Southeast Big Bend reaching the upper 70s. A moderating trend in
temps will commence across the northern zones on Sunday with
everyone well above normal once again for the Monday through
Wednesday period.
&&
.AVIATION (Through 06Z Thursday)...
VFR conditions are forecast to prevail across the forecast area
through the TAF period. The low level easterly flow regime will
continue on the south side of a surface high that is centered off
the Mid Atlantic coast and ridges southwestward to the eastern Gulf
Coast. Areas of stratus are already moving westward across northeast
FL and southeast GA and some of these clouds are forecast to reach
our terminals later in the morning. In fact, we are forecasting a
VFR ceiling at VLD and ABY shortly after sunrise. This ceiling may
spread west over the remaining terminals by the end of the day. It
should be noted that a few of the hi-res statistical models are
showing higher chances for MVFR ceilings working into the VLD area
this morning. We are still not ready to bite on this and will keep
the forecast VFR until confidence increases that these lower clouds
are actually going to develop. Haven`t seen any yet, even east of
the area.
&&
.MARINE...
A tight gradient on the southern periphery of strong 1040mb high
pressure will continue to result in advisory level winds and seas
over the coastal waters this morning. Winds and seas will begin to
subside this afternoon, especially to the east of of Apalachicola.
Another easterly surge is expected tonight, but only to cautionary
levels. Winds and seas will drop below headline criteria later
Thursday into Friday ahead of an approaching weak front. This front
will wash out over the coastal waters during Saturday with moderate
easterly flow re-developing for the second half of the upcoming
weekend.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
An increase in RH today will preclude red flag conditions from being
reached, even across our FL zones. In fact, we see no red flag
events in the offing for the remainder of this week and on into
early next week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 75 52 78 55 80 / 0 0 0 0 20
Panama City 73 57 74 61 74 / 0 0 0 10 30
Dothan 75 53 78 58 78 / 0 0 0 10 40
Albany 73 52 77 57 78 / 0 0 0 10 30
Valdosta 74 52 78 55 80 / 10 0 0 0 20
Cross City 78 52 80 56 81 / 10 0 10 0 20
Apalachicola 69 59 71 62 71 / 0 0 0 0 20
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
GA...None.
FL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EST this afternoon for Coastal
waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL out to 20
NM-Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60
NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.
&&
$$
Synopsis/Short Term/Marine...Mroczka
Long Term/Aviation/Fire Wx...Wool
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
932 PM EST THU MAR 8 2012
.UPDATE...
CURRENT RADAR LOOP SHOWS A LINE OF HEAVY SHOWERS IN NORTHWEST
GEORGIA. WITH LOW REFLECTIVITIES ABOVE THE FREEZING...DO NOT
EXPECT ANY THUNDER WITH THE RAIN UP THERE. HOWEVER...WILL LEAVE
THUNDER IN THE GRIDS FOR FAR NORTHWEST GEORGIA IN CASE AN UPDRAFT
MUSTERS ENOUGH VERTICAL MOTION TO BRING GRAUPEL ABOVE THE FREEZING
LEVEL. WITH LIMITED CAPE...CURRENT FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON
TRACK. SLIGHT CHANGE TO HOURLY TEMPS TO BETTER ACCOUNT FOR
CURRENT TEMPERATURES. NO OTHER UPDATES EXPECTED AT THIS TIME
&&
ARG
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
/ISSUED 245 PM EST MAR 8 2012/
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO LOSE ITS
GRIP OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. PRECIP ACTIVITY EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO NORTH GEORGIA. CURRENT
MCS OVER TENNESSEE WILL SUPPORT SOME EARLY SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA...BUT EXPECT MAIN PRECIP FOCUS AFTER
00Z. OVERALL...HAVE KEPT A TIGHT POP GRADIENT ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH CATEGORICAL ACROSS NORTH GA...AND SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE
SE CWA. BY 12Z FRIDAY...DIMINISH POPS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.
MODELS NOT ENTIRELY IN AGREEMENT ON THUNDER POTENTIAL. 12Z NAM
FAR MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THUNDERSTORM SUPPORT...WITH MU CAPE IN
THE 1200-1400 J/KG RANGE...AND IT REMAINS THE OUTLIER OF ALL THE
OTHER MODELS GENERALLY RANGING FROM 100-300 J/KG. HAVE KEPT MENTION
OF ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS FAR NORTH GEORGIA THROUGH 06Z. SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY ARE IN PHASE FOR A PERIOD OF TIME IN NORTH GEORGIA...AND
THIS COULD SUPPORT SOME STRONGER STORMS.
BOUNDARY MEANDERS THROUGH THE STATE OVERNIGHT...AND PRECIP CHANCES
LINGER ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND. SOME INSTABILITY
REMAINING ACROSS THE AREA COULD ALLOW FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
IN THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA.
FOR TEMPERATURES...HAVE TENDED TOWARDS THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE
WITH THE AMPLE CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER ACTIVITY. EXPECT HIGHS IN
THE 60S THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S ON
FRIDAY...AND 40S BY SATURDAY.
31
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEXT SYSTEM LOOKS TO ENTER THE AREA LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...AND
MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT FOR EARLY WEEK. HAVE MADE NO MAJOR
CHANGES TO THE CURRENT EXTENDED FORECAST...SO THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION HAS BEEN INCLUDED BELOW. /31
/ISSUED 355 AM EST THU MAR 8 2012/
MODELS CONSISTENT ON SATURDAY WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVING TO
THE E COAST AND AN UPPER RIDGE MOVING TO THE SE WITH A MUCH DRIER
AIRMASS OVER NEARLY THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. MAYBE A BRIEF LIGHT
SHOWER OVER THE FAR SW CWA.
MOISTURE RETURNS FOR SUNDAY WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES OVER N AND
W GA AS AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE MID MS VALLEY.
GFS INDICATING A STRONGER SHORT WAVE OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY FOR
MONDAY THAN THE EUROPEAN WITH THE BEST RAIN CHANCES CONTINUING FOR N
AND PARTS OF CENTRAL GA. GFS MOVES A SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE AREA FOR
TUESDAY WHILE THE EUROPEAN APPEARS TO MOSTLY JUST BUILD THE UPPER
RIDGE. AT LEAST SOME CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE AREA...MOST SO FOR N AND W GA. SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY UNDER MAINLY THE
UPPER RIDGE WITH POTENTIAL FOR SHORT WAVES TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.
BDL
&&
.FIREWEATHER...
RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...AND PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL GEORGIA ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO OR BELOW 25 PERCENT FOR
A FEW HOURS ON SATURDAY. FUEL MOISTURE WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED
TO DETERMINE FOR CRITICAL FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS SATURDAY.
31
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
STORM TOTAL QPF STILL 1-1.5 INCHES ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND WITH 3 HR FFG VALUES AT OR ABOVE 2.25
INCHES...FEEL A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS NOT NECESSARY AT THIS TIME.
SOME LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE...AND ISOLATED ISSUES
MAY RESULT. LATEST MODEL RUNS AND CONDITIONS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED AHEAD OF THIS EVENT. ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
CWA...EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF GENERALLY 1 INCH OR LESS.
31
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
/ISSUED 700PM EST MAR 8 2012/
VFR CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME WILL BECOME MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WITH
SHOWERS BETWEEN 05Z AND 06Z AT THE ATLANTA METRO TAF SITES. NAM...
GFS AND RUC MODELS SHOW LIMITED INSTABILITY WITH THE FRONT.
HOWEVER...THE LOCAL WRF AND HRRR MODELS DO INDICATE ISOLATED TSTMS
JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF NOT
MENTIONING TSTMS FOR THIS EVENING...BUT WILL MONTIOR CLOSELY THE
RADAR AND LIGHTNING DETECTION FOR A POSSIBLE UPDATE. IFR CIGS
EXPECTED WITH AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE COLDER AIRMASS.
CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE AFTER 12Z AND BECOME VFR AFTER 15Z ON FRIDAY.
GENERALLY A SOUTH WIND 5-10 KTS VEERING TO NORTHWEST AFTER FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KTS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KTS
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS...ESPECIALLY TIMING OF RAIN AND
IFR CIGS.
16
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 57 65 40 63 / 90 80 10 5
ATLANTA 58 62 42 63 / 100 80 10 5
BLAIRSVILLE 52 59 33 61 / 100 70 5 5
CARTERSVILLE 54 60 36 64 / 100 80 5 5
COLUMBUS 60 69 46 67 / 60 60 10 5
GAINESVILLE 56 64 40 61 / 100 80 5 5
MACON 60 70 44 65 / 40 60 20 5
ROME 55 62 36 66 / 100 80 5 5
PEACHTREE CITY 58 65 37 64 / 90 80 10 5
VIDALIA 60 75 49 66 / 20 50 30 5
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
26
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
700 PM EST THU MAR 8 2012
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO LOSE ITS
GRIP OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. PRECIP ACTIVITY EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO NORTH GEORGIA. CURRENT
MCS OVER TENNESSEE WILL SUPPORT SOME EARLY SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA...BUT EXPECT MAIN PRECIP FOCUS AFTER
00Z. OVERALL...HAVE KEPT A TIGHT POP GRADIENT ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH CATEGORICAL ACROSS NORTH GA...AND SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE
SE CWA. BY 12Z FRIDAY...DIMINISH POPS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.
MODELS NOT ENTIRELY IN AGREEMENT ON THUNDER POTENTIAL. 12Z NAM
FAR MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THUNDERSTORM SUPPORT...WITH MU CAPE IN
THE 1200-1400 J/KG RANGE...AND IT REMAINS THE OUTLIER OF ALL THE
OTHER MODELS GENERALLY RANGING FROM 100-300 J/KG. HAVE KEPT MENTION
OF ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS FAR NORTH GEORGIA THROUGH 06Z. SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY ARE IN PHASE FOR A PERIOD OF TIME IN NORTH GEORGIA...AND
THIS COULD SUPPORT SOME STRONGER STORMS.
BOUNDARY MEANDERS THROUGH THE STATE OVERNIGHT...AND PRECIP CHANCES
LINGER ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND. SOME INSTABILITY
REMAINING ACROSS THE AREA COULD ALLOW FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
IN THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA.
FOR TEMPERATURES...HAVE TENDED TOWARDS THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE
WITH THE AMPLE CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER ACTIVITY. EXPECT HIGHS IN
THE 60S THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S ON
FRIDAY...AND 40S BY SATURDAY.
31
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEXT SYSTEM LOOKS TO ENTER THE AREA LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...AND
MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT FOR EARLY WEEK. HAVE MADE NO MAJOR
CHANGES TO THE CURRENT EXTENDED FORECAST...SO THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION HAS BEEN INCLUDED BELOW. /31
/ISSUED 355 AM EST THU MAR 8 2012/
MODELS CONSISTENT ON SATURDAY WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVING TO
THE E COAST AND AN UPPER RIDGE MOVING TO THE SE WITH A MUCH DRIER
AIRMASS OVER NEARLY THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. MAYBE A BRIEF LIGHT
SHOWER OVER THE FAR SW CWA.
MOISTURE RETURNS FOR SUNDAY WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES OVER N AND
W GA AS AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE MID MS VALLEY.
GFS INDICATING A STRONGER SHORT WAVE OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY FOR
MONDAY THAN THE EUROPEAN WITH THE BEST RAIN CHANCES CONTINUING FOR N
AND PARTS OF CENTRAL GA. GFS MOVES A SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE AREA FOR
TUESDAY WHILE THE EUROPEAN APPEARS TO MOSTLY JUST BUILD THE UPPER
RIDGE. AT LEAST SOME CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE AREA...MOST SO FOR N AND W GA. SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY UNDER MAINLY THE
UPPER RIDGE WITH POTENTIAL FOR SHORT WAVES TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.
BDL
&&
.FIREWEATHER...
RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...AND PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL GEORGIA ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO OR BELOW 25 PERCENT FOR
A FEW HOURS ON SATURDAY. FUEL MOISTURE WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED
TO DETERMINE FOR CRITICAL FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS SATURDAY.
31
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
STORM TOTAL QPF STILL 1-1.5 INCHES ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND WITH 3 HR FFG VALUES AT OR ABOVE 2.25
INCHES...FEEL A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS NOT NECESSARY AT THIS TIME.
SOME LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE...AND ISOLATED ISSUES
MAY RESULT. LATEST MODEL RUNS AND CONDITIONS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED AHEAD OF THIS EVENT. ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
CWA...EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF GENERALLY 1 INCH OR LESS.
31
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME WILL BECOME MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WITH
SHOWERS BETWEEN 05Z AND 06Z AT THE ATLANTA METRO TAF SITES. NAM...
GFS AND RUC MODELS SHOW LIMITED INSTABILITY WITH THE FRONT.
HOWEVER...THE LOCAL WRF AND HRRR MODELS DO INDICATE ISOLATED TSTMS
JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF NOT MENTIONING
TSTMS FOR THIS EVENING...BUT WILL MONTIOR CLOSELY THE RADAR AND
LIGHTNING DETECTION FOR A POSSIBLE UPDATE. IFR CIGS EXPECTED WITH
AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE COLDER AIRMASS. CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE
AFTER 12Z AND BECOME VFR AFTER 15Z ON FRIDAY. GENERALLY A SOUTH WIND
5-10 KTS VEERING TO NORTHWEST AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE AND INCREASING
TO AROUND 10 KTS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KTS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS...ESPECIALLY TIMING OF RAIN AND
IFR CIGS.
16
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 57 65 40 63 / 90 80 10 5
ATLANTA 58 62 42 63 / 100 80 10 5
BLAIRSVILLE 52 59 33 61 / 100 70 5 5
CARTERSVILLE 54 60 36 64 / 100 80 5 5
COLUMBUS 60 69 46 67 / 60 60 10 5
GAINESVILLE 56 64 40 61 / 100 80 5 5
MACON 60 70 44 65 / 40 60 20 5
ROME 55 62 36 66 / 100 80 5 5
PEACHTREE CITY 58 65 37 64 / 90 80 10 5
VIDALIA 60 75 49 66 / 20 50 30 5
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
31/BDL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
517 PM CST THU MAR 8 2012
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAK FRONT
WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN 03Z AND 09Z. SCATTERED
CLOUDS BASED 3500FT WILL ACCOMPANY THE BOUNDARY. NW WINDS WILL BACK
TO WSW AHEAD OF THE FRONT THEN VEER TO NW OR NNW AFTER THE FROPA.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE AREA. ..DLF..
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CST THU MAR 8 2012/
SYNOPSIS...
12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS AN 850MB COLD FRONT FROM SOUTHERN LAKE HURON INTO
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. A BIT MORE IMPRESSIVE IS THE 700MB COLD FRONT
FROM THE MACKINAC STRAITS INTO SOUTHEAST COLORADO. A STRONG LLJ WAS
TRANSPORTING MOISTURE FROM THE GULF COAST INTO NEW ENGLAND. SATELLITE
TRENDS HAVE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY. LOW LEVEL SC/CU WERE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A SHORTWAVE ROTATING ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA TOWARD
WISCONSIN.
18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS THE PRIMARY FRONT FROM TEXAS INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY WITH SEVERAL WEAK TROFS FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. A NEW COLD FRONT WAS DROPPING SOUTH FROM CANADA AND WAS INTO
NORTH DAKOTA AND MINNESOTA. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE TEENS AND 20S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDWEST WHILE 40S AND GREATER DEW POINTS RAN FROM
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...
THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED PV ANOMALY IS MOVING INTO SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN. THESE FEATURES COMBINED WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
HELPED PRODUCE THE STRONG WINDS STARTING AROUND MID DAY. AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES WITH SUNSET THE WINDS WILL DECREASE.
LATER TONIGHT A STORM SYSTEM WILL PASS NORTH OF THE AREA BUT WILL
DRAG ANOTHER COLD FRONT/BOUNDARY THROUGH THE AREA. THUS CLOUDS WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE LATER THIS EVENING. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES...
STRONG SUBSIDENCE SHOULD START BREAKING UP THE CLOUDS PRIOR TO
SUNRISE. THE RUC DOES INDICATE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES GETTING STEEPER
LATE TONIGHT SO THE SUBSIDENCE SHOULD ALLOW WINDS TO PICK UP AGAIN
BEFORE DECREASING AGAIN PRIOR TO SUNRISE.
ON FRIDAY HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA RESULTING IN MUCH
LIGHTER WINDS AND GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES. SUBSIDENCE WILL LIMIT THE
AMOUNT OF MIXING THAT OCCURS BUT THE STRONG MARCH SUN SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO BE SIMILAR TO THURSDAY. ..08..
LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY...
CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH A LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN EVENT LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
OVERALL...INITIALIZATION AND VERIFICATION SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE WITH
SIGNFICANT DISCREPANCIES OF TEXAS CONVECTION. THIS WILL IMPACT THE
TIMING...EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF UPPER LOW FOR LATE SUNDAY. THIS IS
HANDLED ADEQUATELY BY A BLEND OF THE HI-RES ECMWF AND GFS BUT COLD
FRONTAL EVOLUTION SUGGESTS A BIT FASTER TRACK AND QUICKER OCCLUSION
THAT MAY BECOMEM EVIDENT THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH FASTER STARTING OF
RAIN ON SUNDAY AND IN NW SECTIONS...LIGHTER AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITION.
FRIDAY NIGHT...TRIMMED LOWS A FEW DEGREES IN EASTERN SECTIONS DUE TO
LIGHT SE WINDS ALLOWING FOR A BIT OF DECOUPLE UNDER A CLEAR SKY WITH
MIDDLE 20S POSSIBLE FOR LATER SHIFTS AND A DECENTR FROST ALONGAND
EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
SATURDAY...WARMING TREND WITH INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AND
COPIOUS SUNSHINE. UPPED HIGHS TO AROUND 60F WESTERN SECTIONS AND
MIDDLE 50S EAST. IF ENOUGH BL MIXING OCCURS AS SUGGESTED...MAX TEMPS
MAY STILL BE A FEW DEGREES TOO COOL. MINS SATURDAY NIGHT MAY BE
AROUND MIDNIGHT BEFORE HIGH CLOUDS ARRIVE WITH UPPER 30S NORTH AND
LOWER TO POSSIBLY MIDDLE 40S SOUTH SECTIONS.
SUNDAY...AREAS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA WITH
AMOUNTS MOSTLY A QUARTER TO LOCALLY AROUND A HALF INCH. CLOUDS AND
EVAPORATIVE COOLING TO KEEP HIGHS IN THE 50S THAT MAY FALL INTO THE
40S WITH PERIODS OF RAIN. TIMING QUESTION PRECLUDES GOING MORE THAN
LIKELY WITH BULK OF RAIN SUGGESTED BETWEEN 21-09Z ATTM. SUNDAY NIGHT
MINS MILD MOSTLY IN THE MIDDLE 40S DUE TO HIGH DEWPOINTS AND RH
VALUES WITH LIGHT FOG NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR LATER SHIFTS.
MONDAY...CLEARING SKIES WITH ANY RAIN ENDING EARLY. SOUTH WINDS TO
USHER IN MILD GULF OF MEXICO AIR WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S...OR
ABOUT 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MILD AND DRY WITH MORE WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS 65-75F SUGGESTED WITH LOWS 45-55 DEGREES WITH
LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS. WITH ENOUGH BL MIXING...UPPER 70S MAXES
SUGGESTED WHICH ARE RECORD HIGHS FOR THIS PERIOD. RECORD MILD MINS
ARE AROUND 50 DEGREES WHICH MAY ALSO BE THREATENED. ..NICHOLS..
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
315 PM CST WED MAR 7 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS A STRONG LLJ RUNNING FROM THE GULF COAST INTO
THE NORTHEAST. A STRONG CANADIAN COLD FRONT RAN FROM THE ARROWHEAD
OF MINNESOTA INTO SOUTHEAST COLORADO. A VERY PRONOUNCED MOISTURE
PLUME WAS OVER THE MID CONUS WITH 850MB DEW POINTS GETTING INTO THE
LOW TEENS IN SOUTH TEXAS. SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON SHOW A LARGE EXPANSE OF MID CLOUDS WITH LOW CLOUDS ALONG
AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. RADARS SHOW PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING
ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT FROM IOWA INTO MINNESOTA.
18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAD A WEAK LOW NEAR KRPD IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
WITH THE COLD FRONT FROM NEAR THE LOW BACK INTO THE OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE NEAR KGUY. A SUBTLE PRE-FRONTAL TROF RAN FROM NEAR KRST TO
KFNB. DEW POINTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WERE IN THE 40S AND 50S THAT
QUICKLY DROP INTO THE 20S AND 30S AND FINALLY TEENS BEHIND THE FRONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...
GFS MOISTURE INITIALIZATION WAS WAY TOO MOIST AGAIN WITH ERRORS OF
3-5C COMMON IN THE LOWEST LAYERS. THE WRF WAS BETTER BUT STILL TOO
MOIST. ALTHOUGH THE RUC WAS SLIGHTLY TOO MOIST...IT WAS DEPICTING
QUITE WELL WHAT WAS HAPPENING AND ITS TRENDS WERE USED HEAVILY FOR
TONIGHT. THE ECMWF/GEM/UKMET WERE FAVORED FOR THURSDAY.
RUC TRENDS COMBINED WITH RECENT RADAR TRENDS INDICATE THAT PRECIP
WILL BE MAINLY ALONG/BEHIND THE FRONT. THE WAA TOOL USING THE RUC AT
THE 925MB SFC AGREES QUITE WELL ON HOW PRECIP HAS DEVELOPED SO FAR.
THUS PRECIP WILL DEVELOP/MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST CWFA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. SOME PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS MAY OCCUR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH PEAK HEATING. PER THE LIFT TOOL...THE BEST CHANCES
FOR ANY ISOLATED TSRA WILL BE OVER THE NEXT 4-6 HRS IN THE NORTHWEST
PART OF THE CWFA. THUS WILL INCLUDE A MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER
THERE.
ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES ANY ONE AREA...TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP
ABOUT 15 DEGREES IN JUST OVER AN HOUR.
BETWEEN MID EVENING AND MIDNIGHT AREAL COVERAGE OF THE RAIN WILL
EXPAND AS THE FRONT CONTINUES MOVING SOUTHEAST. THE EVENING HOURS
WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY TIME PERIOD FOR THE RELATIVELY HEAVIER RAIN
AMOUNTS BUT EVEN THAT AMOUNT WILL BE UNDER ONE QUARTER INCH.
JUST PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT SOME SNOW MAY MIX IN WITH THE RAIN BEFORE IT
ENDS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST CWFA. AT THE VERY WORST A LOCALIZED
DUSTING MAY OCCUR.
AFTER MIDNIGHT THE RAIN WILL END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS RISE AND THE BETTER FORCING MOVES
EAST OF THE CWFA. MOST OF THE CWFA SHOULD BE PRECIPITATION FREE BY
SUNRISE. THE INCOMING HIGH PRESSURE MAY ALLOW SKIES TO PARTIALLY
CLEAR. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR AT OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE
THURSDAY.
ON THURSDAY...SOME LINGERING SPRINKLES MAY BE SEEN IN THE FAR EAST
AND SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE CWFA BEFORE ENDING BY MID MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN SHOULD ALLOW SKIES TO CLEAR FURTHER BEFORE HIGH
CLOUDS MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE REASONABLY
STEEP AND SHOULD PROMOTE GOOD MIXING AND RESULT IN ANOTHER BREEZY IF
NOT WINDY DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE 15-20 DEGREES COLDER BUT
STILL ABOVE NORMAL. ..08..
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY...
ABOVE NORMAL TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH LIGHT RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.
OVERALL...INITIALIZATION AND VERIFICATION AVERAGE WITH ONCE AGAIN
SIGNIFICANT BL PROBLEMS WITH LOW LEVEL THERMAL (TOO COOL) AND
MOISTURE FIELDS (TOO HIGH). HI-RES ECMWF HANDLING THIS AND ALSO RUN
TO RUN CONTINUITY THE BEST. LIKELY GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES DAYS 3-7
ARE AT LEAST A CATEGORY OR TWO TOO LOW...OR MAY NEED RAISING 3-5
DEGREES FOR HIGHS MOST DAYS.
THURSDAY NIGHT...WINDS MAY DECOUPLE UNDER A FAIR SKY...IF SO THEN
MINS MAY NEED TO BE TRIMMED BY UP TO 3 DEGREES. THIS WOULD RESULT
IN LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FAIR SKIES AND WARMING TREND. LIGHT SOUTH
WINDS AND COPIOUS SUNSHINE TO MAKE FOR COMFORTABLE MARCH WEATHER.
HIGHS MAY APPROACH 60S IN SOME SECTIONS ON SATURDAY. MINS SATURDAY
AM WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 32F AND SUNDAY AM AROUND 40F.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AREAS OF LIGHT TO POSSIBLY MODERATE RAIN...MOSTLY
SUNDAY. HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS AS TREND HAS BEEN A TRACK A BIT SOUTH
THE PAST 3 DAYS. BEST FORCING SOUTH AND SUGGEST TOTAL RAIN AMOUNTS TO
BE GENERALLY BELOW A QUARTER INCH MOST LOCATIONS. HIGHS SUNDAY TO BE
IMPACTED BY AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER. SKIES TO CLEAR MONDAY WITH HIGHS
WELL INTO THE 60S. MINS SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNING IN THE 40S MOST
LOCATIONS.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...DRY WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
HIGHS IN THE 60S WITH LOWS IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S ON THURSDAY
MORNING. SOME LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS SUGGEST 70S POSSIBLE ON ONE
OR MORE DAYS WITH ENOUGH HEATING FOR LATER SHIFTS TO RECONSIDER.
THESE TEMPERATURES ARE 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. ..NICHOLS..
&&
.AVIATION...
COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH KALO AND WILL BE MOVING THROUGH ALL TAF
SITES BY 04Z/08. PRECIPITATION IS DVLPG ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. ISOLATED TSRA MAY DEVELOP THROUGH 03Z/08 THAT
COULD AFFECT KCID/KDBQ. IF NO TSRA DEVELOPS BY 00Z/08 THEN THE TSRA
THREAT WILL BE ZERO. A FEW PIREPS INDICATE LLWS IS VERY MARGINAL AND
WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE WITH THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFT 06Z/08. ..08..
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
08/NICHOLS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1108 AM CST WED MAR 7 2012
.UPDATE...
MODEL VERIFICATION AND INITIALIZATION CONTINUES TO SHOW THE GFS
WAY TOO MOIST FROM THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO THE SFC BY 4-5C. THE WRF
IS SLIGHTLY BETTER BUT NOT BY MUCH. THE RUC TRENDS...ALBEIT
SLIGHTLY OVERDONE ARE BY FAR MUCH BETTER AND WILL BE FOLLOWED AS
TRENDS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
RUC CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS AND FORCING SHOW PRECIP NOT
REACHING THE FAR NORTHWEST PART OF THE CWFA UNTIL ABOUT MID
AFTERNOON. THE WAA TOOL HAS THE BEST CONVERGENCE ALONG/BEHIND THE
FRONT THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON BUT THERE IS AN INCREASE IN
CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
IS LIKELY DUE TO THE RUC BRINGING UP A LARGER AXIS OF 50+ DEW
POINT AIR THAN WHAT THE CURRENT OBS AND OBS TRENDS INDICATE.
HOWEVER...THIS SIGNAL CANNOT BE ENTIRELY IGNORED BECAUSE THIS IS
RIGHT AT AND SHORTLY AFTER PEAK HEATING. THUS POPS HAVE BEEN RE-
WORKED FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH A MORE
APPROPRIATE WORDING OF ISOLD/SCT SHRA.
THE RUC SHOW CONVERGENCE ALONG/BEHIND THE FRONT INCREASES
SIGNIFICANTLY RIGHT AROUND AND AFTER 00Z. IF CORRECT...THEN THIS
WOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY TIME PERIOD FOR THE RELATIVELY HEAVIER
RAIN AND POSSIBLE ISOLD TSRA WITH THE STRONGEST FORCING PRESENT.
CLOUD COVER IS HELPING TO HOLD DOWN TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT BUT THE
STRONG WAA IS SLOWLY PUSHING TEMPERATURES UP. COMPRESSIONAL
HEATING JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO LOCALLY
CLIMB HIGHER LATE THIS AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE FRONT TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BEGIN TO FALL PRIOR TO SUNSET.
AN UPDATE TO THE FCST IS ALREADY AVAILABLE.
..08..
&&
.AVIATION...
THE GFS MODEL IS TOO MOIST IN THE LOW LEVELS WITH THE WRF ONLY
SLIGHTLY BETTER. RUC MODEL IS BETTER AND RUC TRENDS SUGGEST A
FRONTAL PASSAGE ARND 00Z/09 AT KCID AND KDBQ/KMLI/KBRL 00Z-
06Z/08. VFR CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH POSSIBLE MVFR
CONDITIONS RIGHT ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND IT. CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE FRONT INCREASES 00Z-03Z/09 WHICH MAY ALLOW ISOLATED
TSRA TO DVLP. FOR THE 18Z TAFS WILL ADD CB WORDING TO KMLI/KBRL TO
REFLECT THIS. LLWS THREAT IS MARGINAL AT 20KTS THROUGH 00Z/08.
..08..
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1008 AM CST WED MAR 7 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1004 AM CST WED MAR 7 2012
HAVE UPDATED WINDS AND TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF TODAY WITH A
FASTER MOVING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT HAS ALREADY MOVED THROUGH HAYS,
DODGE CITY, GARDEN CITY, TO NEAR LIBERAL. LOOK FOR NEARLY STEADY
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S BEHIND THE FRONT, AND HIGHS
IN THE MID 60S AHEAD OF THE FRONT AROUND MEDICINE LODGE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CST WED MAR 7 2012
SYNOPSIS:
AT 00Z LAST NIGHT...A LARGE ANTICYCLONICALLY CURVED JET EXTENDED FROM
THE SOUTHERN COAST OF ALASKA TO THE ALBERTA ROCKIES
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TO NEAR SAN FRANCISCO LEADING TO THE DEVELOPING
MID LEVEL CYCLONE...WHICH WAS CENTERED OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA AT
THAT TIME. 150 TO 200 METER 12-HOUR HEIGHT FALLS WERE FOUND AHEAD
OF THE DEVELOPING CYCLONE AT 500MB. COLD MID LEVELS WERE ALSO
OBSERVED WITH 700MB TEMPERATURES -15 TO -18C ACROSS EASTERN
WASHINGTON AND OREGON TO WESTERN MONTANA AND NORTHERN NEVADA. AHEAD
OF THE DEVELOPING CYCLONE...700MB TEMPERATURES WERE +5 TO +7C OVER
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. AT 00Z...THE 850MB FRONT
EXTENDED SOUTHWEST FROM A LOW CENTER NEAR THE MANITOBA-NORTH
DAKOTA-MINNESOTA BORDER TO THE BLACK HILLS REGION. AS OF 09Z...THE
FRONT AT THE SURFACE EXTENDED FROM NEAR SIOUX FALLS, SOUTH DAKOTA
SOUTHWEST WARD TO NORTHWEST KANSAS. THE FRONT HAD JUST PASSED
THROUGH GOODLAND, KS WITH A NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND OBSERVED.
TODAY:
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH...REACHING AN ELKHART TO
GARDEN CITY TO LACROSSE LINE BY LATE MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL ABRUPTLY UPON THE INITIAL PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...THEN CONTINUE
A SLOW DECLINE OR HOLD NEARLY STEADY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AS
WARMING THROUGH INSOLATION IS OFFSET BY COLD ADVECTION. BY LATE
AFTERNOON...THE UPPER LOW WILL STILL BE WELL TO THE WEST OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS. NO MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED DURING THE
"TODAY" PERIOD (ENDING 00Z) AND HAVE REMOVED ALL POPS AS A RESULT
FOR TODAY. SOME OF THE SHORT TERM HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS DO HINT AT
SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE/REAL LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS PERHAPS
CLIPPING STAFFORD COUNTY BY LATE AFTERNOON... AND I DO HAVE SOME
"SILENT" POPS LESS THAN 15 PERCENT TO COVER THIS...BUT ANY
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 00Z.
TONIGHT:
A REALLY COMPLICATED FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. ALL THE MODELS HAVE
TRENDED DOWNWARD IN PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL/AMOUNTS FOR THE MAJORITY
OF THE DDC FORECAST AREA AND AS A RESULT...POPS HAVE BEEN LOWERED
ACROSS THE BOARD. IN FACT...AREAS NORTHWEST OF A LAKIN TO GARDEN
CITY TO JETMORE LINE MAY NOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION AT
ALL TONIGHT. AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH INTO
OKLAHOMA...DRIER AIR WILL BE MOVING IN. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT IN THE 850-900MB LAYER AS
INDICATED BY ECMWF, GFS, AND CANADIAN GEM...BUT THIS WILL MOST
LIKELY BE REALIZED ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES (COMANCHE
AND BARBER). ELEVATED CAPE FROM AN 800MB PARCEL WOULD SUGGEST
AROUND 400-600 J/KG UP INTO BARBER COUNTY...SO SOME SMALL HAIL
WITH ANY CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE. OTHER LIGHTER SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP
FARTHER NORTH WHERE THE FRONTOGENESIS EXISTS HIGHER UP IN THE
TROPOSPHERE WITH THE SLOPING COLD FRONT...BUT ALL MODELS INSIST
THAT THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION WILL BE TIED TO
FRONTOGENESIS LOWER IN THE TROPOSPHERE...AND THUS FARTHER SOUTH.
WILL KEEP THE AREAS OF DRIZZLE/LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE GRIDS
FOR ROUGHLY THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF AS THE NAM AND SOME VERSIONS OF
THE WRF SUGGEST THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION SIGNAL IN SIMULATED
REFLECTIVITY FIELDS. THAT BEING SAID...THE DRY AIR ADVECTION FROM
THE NORTH MAY JUST BE TOO MUCH TO OVERCOME AS THE STRONGEST
900-800MB FRONTOGENESIS WILL BE, AGAIN, SOUTH OF THE DDC FORECAST
AREA BY LATE IN THIS PERIOD. ANY SHALLOW LAYER PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE FAIRLY SHORT-LIVED AND MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA BY 12Z OR
SHORTLY THEREAFTER.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 AM CST WED MAR 7 2012
THURSDAY:
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE SOUTH OF THE DDC FORECAST AREA. NAM/GFS
AN TOO A LESSER EXTENT THE GEM KEEP MOST OF THE HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF THE AREA. THE 00Z ECMWF IS A LITTLE BIT MORE
GENEROUS WITH QPF. DECIDED TO KEEP CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE REGION. AN
EXAMINATION OF FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT THE LOW LEVELS BELOW 700
HPA ARE SUB-SATURATED AND THE DENDRITIC LAYER IS NOT REALLY
SATURATED EITHER. DECIDED TO KEEP DRIZZLE AND FREEZING DRIZZLE IN
THE FORECAST SHOULD THE CLOUD DECK BECOME THICK ENOUGH. WARMED HIGHS
UP GIVEN THE MORE DRY SOLUTION THAT THE MODELS HAVE TURNED TO.
FRIDAY:
THE 00Z ECMWF DOESN`T MOVE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT MUCH FRIDAY AND IS
WAY LESS PROGRESSIVE THAN COMPARED TO THE NAM/GFS. AS A RESULT, KEPT
SOME SOME SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THE EURO
DOES INDICATE SOME SNOWFALL ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
SOMETHING TO WATCH AS NONE OF THE OTHER MODELS SUGGEST SUCH
ACCUMULATIONS.
WEEKEND AND BEYOND:
CONFIDENCE IS LOW THIS FAR OUT. SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY
IF THE ECMWF PANS OUT. OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST WILL DRY OUT AND
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP AS 500 HPA HEIGHTS INCREASE AND LOW LOW
THICKNESS FIELDS INCREASE AS WELL. TEMPERATURE LOOK TO BE ABOVE
NORMAL AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 15Z TAFS THROUGH 15Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 918 AM CST WED MAR 7 2012
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS IS SHOWING THE FRONT IS MOVING FASTER THAN MODELS
SUGGEST. HRRR SEEMS TO BE DOING BETTER WITH THE FRONT TIMING AND WAS
USED IN THE 12Z TAFS. MVFR CIGS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTH ACROSS
HAYS AND GARDEN CITY BY 18Z. THEN POSSIBLE INTO KDDC BY 20Z. LATER
TONIGHT MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH STRATUS AND
FREEZING DRIZZLE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 50 31 44 30 / 10 40 40 40
GCK 42 30 42 27 / 0 20 50 30
EHA 44 27 38 25 / 0 30 60 50
LBL 50 30 38 26 / 0 40 50 40
HYS 45 30 49 29 / 10 20 20 20
P28 62 36 45 35 / 10 70 70 30
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KRUSE
SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM....SUGDEN
AVIATION...KRUSE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
923 AM CST WED MAR 7 2012
...UPDATED FOR AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CST WED MAR 7 2012
SYNOPSIS:
AT 00Z LAST NIGHT...A LARGE ANTICYCLONICALLY CURVED JET EXTENDED FROM
THE SOUTHERN COAST OF ALASKA TO THE ALBERTA ROCKIES
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TO NEAR SAN FRANCISCO LEADING TO THE DEVELOPING
MID LEVEL CYCLONE...WHICH WAS CENTERED OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA AT
THAT TIME. 150 TO 200 METER 12-HOUR HEIGHT FALLS WERE FOUND AHEAD
OF THE DEVELOPING CYCLONE AT 500MB. COLD MID LEVELS WERE ALSO
OBSERVED WITH 700MB TEMPERATURES -15 TO -18C ACROSS EASTERN
WASHINGTON AND OREGON TO WESTERN MONTANA AND NORTHERN NEVADA. AHEAD
OF THE DEVELOPING CYCLONE...700MB TEMPERATURES WERE +5 TO +7C OVER
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. AT 00Z...THE 850MB FRONT
EXTENDED SOUTHWEST FROM A LOW CENTER NEAR THE MANITOBA-NORTH
DAKOTA-MINNESOTA BORDER TO THE BLACK HILLS REGION. AS OF 09Z...THE
FRONT AT THE SURFACE EXTENDED FROM NEAR SIOUX FALLS, SOUTH DAKOTA
SOUTHWEST WARD TO NORTHWEST KANSAS. THE FRONT HAD JUST PASSED
THROUGH GOODLAND, KS WITH A NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND OBSERVED.
TODAY:
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH...REACHING AN ELKHART TO
GARDEN CITY TO LACROSSE LINE BY LATE MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL ABRUPTLY UPON THE INITIAL PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...THEN CONTINUE
A SLOW DECLINE OR HOLD NEARLY STEADY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AS
WARMING THROUGH INSOLATION IS OFFSET BY COLD ADVECTION. BY LATE
AFTERNOON...THE UPPER LOW WILL STILL BE WELL TO THE WEST OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS. NO MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED DURING THE
"TODAY" PERIOD (ENDING 00Z) AND HAVE REMOVED ALL POPS AS A RESULT
FOR TODAY. SOME OF THE SHORT TERM HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS DO HINT AT
SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE/REAL LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS PERHAPS
CLIPPING STAFFORD COUNTY BY LATE AFTERNOON... AND I DO HAVE SOME
"SILENT" POPS LESS THAN 15 PERCENT TO COVER THIS...BUT ANY
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 00Z.
TONIGHT:
A REALLY COMPLICATED FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. ALL THE MODELS HAVE
TRENDED DOWNWARD IN PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL/AMOUNTS FOR THE MAJORITY
OF THE DDC FORECAST AREA AND AS A RESULT...POPS HAVE BEEN LOWERED
ACROSS THE BOARD. IN FACT...AREAS NORTHWEST OF A LAKIN TO GARDEN
CITY TO JETMORE LINE MAY NOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION AT
ALL TONIGHT. AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH INTO
OKLAHOMA...DRIER AIR WILL BE MOVING IN. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT IN THE 850-900MB LAYER AS
INDICATED BY ECMWF, GFS, AND CANADIAN GEM...BUT THIS WILL MOST
LIKELY BE REALIZED ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES (COMANCHE
AND BARBER). ELEVATED CAPE FROM AN 800MB PARCEL WOULD SUGGEST
AROUND 400-600 J/KG UP INTO BARBER COUNTY...SO SOME SMALL HAIL
WITH ANY CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE. OTHER LIGHTER SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP
FARTHER NORTH WHERE THE FRONTOGENESIS EXISTS HIGHER UP IN THE
TROPOSPHERE WITH THE SLOPING COLD FRONT...BUT ALL MODELS INSIST
THAT THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION WILL BE TIED TO
FRONTOGENESIS LOWER IN THE TROPOSPHERE...AND THUS FARTHER SOUTH.
WILL KEEP THE AREAS OF DRIZZLE/LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE GRIDS
FOR ROUGHLY THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF AS THE NAM AND SOME VERSIONS OF
THE WRF SUGGEST THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION SIGNAL IN SIMULATED
REFLECTIVITY FIELDS. THAT BEING SAID...THE DRY AIR ADVECTION FROM
THE NORTH MAY JUST BE TOO MUCH TO OVERCOME AS THE STRONGEST
900-800MB FRONTOGENESIS WILL BE, AGAIN, SOUTH OF THE DDC FORECAST
AREA BY LATE IN THIS PERIOD. ANY SHALLOW LAYER PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE FAIRLY SHORT-LIVED AND MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA BY 12Z OR
SHORTLY THEREAFTER.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 AM CST WED MAR 7 2012
THURSDAY:
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE SOUTH OF THE DDC FORECAST AREA. NAM/GFS
AN TOO A LESSER EXTENT THE GEM KEEP MOST OF THE HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF THE AREA. THE 00Z ECMWF IS A LITTLE BIT MORE
GENEROUS WITH QPF. DECIDED TO KEEP CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE REGION. AN
EXAMINATION OF FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT THE LOW LEVELS BELOW 700
HPA ARE SUB-SATURATED AND THE DENDRITIC LAYER IS NOT REALLY
SATURATED EITHER. DECIDED TO KEEP DRIZZLE AND FREEZING DRIZZLE IN
THE FORECAST SHOULD THE CLOUD DECK BECOME THICK ENOUGH. WARMED HIGHS
UP GIVEN THE MORE DRY SOLUTION THAT THE MODELS HAVE TURNED TO.
FRIDAY:
THE 00Z ECMWF DOESN`T MOVE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT MUCH FRIDAY AND IS
WAY LESS PROGRESSIVE THAN COMPARED TO THE NAM/GFS. AS A RESULT, KEPT
SOME SOME SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THE EURO
DOES INDICATE SOME SNOWFALL ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
SOMETHING TO WATCH AS NONE OF THE OTHER MODELS SUGGEST SUCH
ACCUMULATIONS.
WEEKEND AND BEYOND:
CONFIDENCE IS LOW THIS FAR OUT. SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY
IF THE ECMWF PANS OUT. OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST WILL DRY OUT AND
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP AS 500 HPA HEIGHTS INCREASE AND LOW LOW
THICKNESS FIELDS INCREASE AS WELL. TEMPERATURE LOOK TO BE ABOVE
NORMAL AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 15Z TAFS THROUGH 15Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 918 AM CST WED MAR 7 2012
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS IS SHOWING THE FRONT IS MOVING FASTER THAN MODELS
SUGGEST. HRRR SEEMS TO BE DOING BETTER WITH THE FRONT TIMING AND WAS
USED IN THE 12Z TAFS. MVFR CIGS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTH ACROSS
HAYS AND GARDEN CITY BY 18Z. THEN POSSIBLE INTO KDDC BY 20Z. LATER
TONIGHT MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH STRATUS AND
FREEZING DRIZZLE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 54 31 44 30 / 10 40 40 40
GCK 43 30 42 27 / 0 20 50 30
EHA 44 27 38 25 / 0 30 60 50
LBL 52 30 38 26 / 0 40 50 40
HYS 45 30 49 29 / 10 20 20 20
P28 66 36 45 35 / 10 70 70 30
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM....SUGDEN
AVIATION...KRUSE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
500 AM CST WED MAR 7 2012
...UPDATE TO AVIATION FOR 12Z TAFS...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CST WED MAR 7 2012
SYNOPSIS:
AT 00Z LAST NIGHT...A LARGE ANTICYCLONICALLY CURVED JET EXTENDED FROM
THE SOUTHERN COAST OF ALASKA TO THE ALBERTA ROCKIES
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TO NEAR SAN FRANCISCO LEADING TO THE DEVELOPING
MID LEVEL CYCLONE...WHICH WAS CENTERED OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA AT
THAT TIME. 150 TO 200 METER 12-HOUR HEIGHT FALLS WERE FOUND AHEAD
OF THE DEVELOPING CYCLONE AT 500MB. COLD MID LEVELS WERE ALSO
OBSERVED WITH 700MB TEMPERATURES -15 TO -18C ACROSS EASTERN
WASHINGTON AND OREGON TO WESTERN MONTANA AND NORTHERN NEVADA. AHEAD
OF THE DEVELOPING CYCLONE...700MB TEMPERATURES WERE +5 TO +7C OVER
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. AT 00Z...THE 850MB FRONT
EXTENDED SOUTHWEST FROM A LOW CENTER NEAR THE MANITOBA-NORTH
DAKOTA-MINNESOTA BORDER TO THE BLACK HILLS REGION. AS OF 09Z...THE
FRONT AT THE SURFACE EXTENDED FROM NEAR SIOUX FALLS, SOUTH DAKOTA
SOUTHWEST WARD TO NORTHWEST KANSAS. THE FRONT HAD JUST PASSED
THROUGH GOODLAND, KS WITH A NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND OBSERVED.
TODAY:
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH...REACHING AN ELKHART TO
GARDEN CITY TO LACROSSE LINE BY LATE MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL ABRUPTLY UPON THE INITIAL PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...THEN CONTINUE
A SLOW DECLINE OR HOLD NEARLY STEADY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AS
WARMING THROUGH INSOLATION IS OFFSET BY COLD ADVECTION. BY LATE
AFTERNOON...THE UPPER LOW WILL STILL BE WELL TO THE WEST OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS. NO MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED DURING THE
"TODAY" PERIOD (ENDING 00Z) AND HAVE REMOVED ALL POPS AS A RESULT
FOR TODAY. SOME OF THE SHORT TERM HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS DO HINT AT
SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE/REAL LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS PERHAPS
CLIPPING STAFFORD COUNTY BY LATE AFTERNOON... AND I DO HAVE SOME
"SILENT" POPS LESS THAN 15 PERCENT TO COVER THIS...BUT ANY
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 00Z.
TONIGHT:
A REALLY COMPLICATED FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. ALL THE MODELS HAVE
TRENDED DOWNWARD IN PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL/AMOUNTS FOR THE MAJORITY
OF THE DDC FORECAST AREA AND AS A RESULT...POPS HAVE BEEN LOWERED
ACROSS THE BOARD. IN FACT...AREAS NORTHWEST OF A LAKIN TO GARDEN
CITY TO JETMORE LINE MAY NOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION AT
ALL TONIGHT. AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH INTO
OKLAHOMA...DRIER AIR WILL BE MOVING IN. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT IN THE 850-900MB LAYER AS
INDICATED BY ECMWF, GFS, AND CANADIAN GEM...BUT THIS WILL MOST
LIKELY BE REALIZED ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES (COMANCHE
AND BARBER). ELEVATED CAPE FROM AN 800MB PARCEL WOULD SUGGEST
AROUND 400-600 J/KG UP INTO BARBER COUNTY...SO SOME SMALL HAIL
WITH ANY CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE. OTHER LIGHTER SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP
FARTHER NORTH WHERE THE FRONTOGENESIS EXISTS HIGHER UP IN THE
TROPOSPHERE WITH THE SLOPING COLD FRONT...BUT ALL MODELS INSIST
THAT THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION WILL BE TIED TO
FRONTOGENESIS LOWER IN THE TROPOSPHERE...AND THUS FARTHER SOUTH.
WILL KEEP THE AREAS OF DRIZZLE/LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE GRIDS
FOR ROUGHLY THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF AS THE NAM AND SOME VERSIONS OF
THE WRF SUGGEST THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION SIGNAL IN SIMULATED
REFLECTIVITY FIELDS. THAT BEING SAID...THE DRY AIR ADVECTION FROM
THE NORTH MAY JUST BE TOO MUCH TO OVERCOME AS THE STRONGEST
900-800MB FRONTOGENESIS WILL BE, AGAIN, SOUTH OF THE DDC FORECAST
AREA BY LATE IN THIS PERIOD. ANY SHALLOW LAYER PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE FAIRLY SHORT-LIVED AND MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA BY 12Z OR
SHORTLY THEREAFTER.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 AM CST WED MAR 7 2012
THURSDAY:
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE SOUTH OF THE DDC FORECAST AREA. NAM/GFS
AN TOO A LESSER EXTENT THE GEM KEEP MOST OF THE HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF THE AREA. THE 00Z ECMWF IS A LITTLE BIT MORE
GENEROUS WITH QPF. DECIDED TO KEEP CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE REGION. AN
EXAMINATION OF FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT THE LOW LEVELS BELOW 700
HPA ARE SUB-SATURATED AND THE DENDRITIC LAYER IS NOT REALLY
SATURATED EITHER. DECIDED TO KEEP DRIZZLE AND FREEZING DRIZZLE IN
THE FORECAST SHOULD THE CLOUD DECK BECOME THICK ENOUGH. WARMED HIGHS
UP GIVEN THE MORE DRY SOLUTION THAT THE MODELS HAVE TURNED TO.
FRIDAY:
THE 00Z ECMWF DOESN`T MOVE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT MUCH FRIDAY AND IS
WAY LESS PROGRESSIVE THAN COMPARED TO THE NAM/GFS. AS A RESULT, KEPT
SOME SOME SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THE EURO
DOES INDICATE SOME SNOWFALL ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
SOMETHING TO WATCH AS NONE OF THE OTHER MODELS SUGGEST SUCH
ACCUMULATIONS.
WEEKEND AND BEYOND:
CONFIDENCE IS LOW THIS FAR OUT. SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY
IF THE ECMWF PANS OUT. OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST WILL DRY OUT AND
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP AS 500 HPA HEIGHTS INCREASE AND LOW LOW
THICKNESS FIELDS INCREASE AS WELL. TEMPERATURE LOOK TO BE ABOVE
NORMAL AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 500 AM CST WED MAR 7 2012
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS IS SHOWING THE FRONT IS MOVING FASTER THAN MODELS
SUGGEST. HRRR SEEMS TO BE DOING BETTER WITH THE FRONT TIMING AND WAS
USED IN THE 12Z TAFS. VFR CIGS WILL REMAIN TODAY, HOWEVER, CIGS WILL
LOWER TO MVFR...PARTICULARLY AT KDDC LATE TONIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH
STRATUS AND FREEZING DRIZZLE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 59 31 41 29 / 10 40 40 40
GCK 49 30 40 27 / 0 20 50 30
EHA 56 27 32 23 / 0 30 60 50
LBL 60 30 33 26 / 0 40 50 40
HYS 56 30 49 29 / 10 20 20 20
P28 71 36 43 34 / 10 70 70 30
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM....SUGDEN
AVIATION...SUGDEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1015 PM MST TUE MAR 6 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1009 PM MST TUE MAR 6 2012
WIND GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE OAKLEY AND GOVE
AREAS WHERE LOW LEVEL JET MOVING IN FROM THE DDC FORECAST AREA.
THESE WINDS WILL BE BRIEF AND BY 1-2AM CST SHOULD BE EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA AS COLD FRONT MOVES IN TO THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF
THE AREA. HAVE UPDATED GRIDS TO REFLECT THE HIGHER WINDS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 926 PM MST TUE MAR 6 2012
TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING ACROSS THE EASTERN
1/3 OF THE AREA WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH OUT BY HILL CITY. DEWPOINTS
ALSO INCREASING OUT THERE WITH MID 40S BEING REPORTED. HRRR HAS A
GOOD HANDLE ON THE FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE INTO YUMA COUNTY BETWEEN
06-07Z THEN THROUGH THE REST OF THE AREA BY 13Z OR SO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. BEHIND THE FRONT DEWPOINTS WILL INCREASE REPLACING
CURRENT DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS.
WEDNESDAY MORNING LOW TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S IN FAR EASTERN
COLORADO TO THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS THE FAR EAST (HILL CITY).
HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S WITH GUSTY N/NE WINDS.
AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION TYPE...SHOULD BE DRY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY
ACROSS THE AREA WITH A SLIM POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS
FAR EASTERN COLORADO (WESTERN 1/2) FROM 12-15Z OR SO. AFTER 15Z
DRY FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 629 PM MST TUE MAR 6 2012
HAVE CANCELLED THE RED FLAG WARNING A BIT EARLY. AREAS WITH RH
BELOW 20 PERCENT HAVE WINDS OF 5-15 MPH. AREAS WITH WINDS GUSTING
OVER 25 MPH (HILL CITY AREA) HAVE RH VALUES ABOVE 25 PERCENT.
NO OTHER CHANGES MADE AT PRESENT TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 PM MST TUE MAR 6 2012
WINDS WILL DECREASE EARLY THIS EVENING...AND THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEE TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE REGION FROM THE NORTH DURING
THE MID MORNING NEAR 10/11Z. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR PATCHY
FREEZING DRIZZLE DURING THE MID MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT...MAINLY IN
EASTERN COLORADO...BUT MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
PRECIPITATION DURING THE MORNING HOURS. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
BEHIND THE FRONT...AND SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ENOUGH LIFT TO FORM LOW
STRATUS BEHIND THE FRONT...THOUGH ISENTROPIC LIFT IS WEAK DURING
THIS PERIOD. FORCING WILL DECREASE BY NOON...PRIMARILY DUE TO THE
MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT THROUGH AND AWAY FROM THE AREA.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 PM MST TUE MAR 6 2012
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EVOLUTION/TIMING OF THE FOUR CORNER CLOSED
LOW CONTINUES. GFS CONTINUES TO BE AN EXTREME OUTLIER WITH THE
EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LOW...AND IS BEING DISCOUNTED CONSIDERING THE
LACK OF ENSEMBLE SUPPORT OR SUPPORT FROM OTHER GUIDANCE. WHILE MOST
GUIDANCE AGREES ON A SINGLE SEMI-STATIONARY CUTOFF LOW CENTERED NEAR
THE FOUR CORNERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY THERE CONTINUES TO
BE DIFFERENCES RUN-RUN BETWEEN INDIVIDUAL PIECES OF GUIDANCE ON
EXACT POSITION AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM. EVEN WHAT APPEARS TO BE
SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IMPACTS POSITION OF
FAVORABLE LIFT AND MOISTURE RELATION TO THE CWA. THIS IN TURN
AFFECTS DETAILS SUCH AS PRECIP TYPE...AMOUNTS...AND WHERE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL ULTIMATELY BE. WITH THIS IN MIND I AM
HESITANT TO MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO INHERITED POP/WX TYPE FORECAST
THROUGH THESE PERIODS.
IN REGARDS TO POPS...I SPED UP THE ARRIVAL OF PRECIP TUESDAY EVENING
IN THE WEST...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS OVER MOST OF THE CWA
AFTER 03Z. THIS WAS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY FOR A FASTER
ARRIVAL OF LIFT/MOISTURE AS INDICATED BY SREF/NAM. BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIP STILL LOOKS TO BE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO STATIONARY
FRONT/BAROCLINIC ZONE.
WAA AND MOISTURE ADVECTION ON THE EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN FLANK OF
THE UPPER LOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. SHALLOW COLD AIR SHOULD STILL BE IN
PLACE OVER THE CWA...WHICH WILL LEAD TO THE POSSIBILITY OF
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WITH WARM LAYER ALOFT. THE AMOUNT OF MID
LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE AXIS OF WAA ALOFT WILL AFFECT THE CUTOFF
FROM SNOW TO RAIN TO SLEET TO FREEZING RAIN. I KEPT SOME MENTION
OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET IN THE WX GRIDS MAINLY IN THE SOUTH AND
EAST PARTS OF THE CWA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT JUST TO HIGHLIGHT THE
POSSIBILITY. THERE ARE STILL QUESTIONS REGARDS THE BEHAVIOR OF THE
UPPER LOW...MUCH LESS THESE TYPE OF DETAILS...SO I TRIED NOT TO GO
OVERBOARD IN REGARDS TO ICE/SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. THERE IS TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT TO PUT OUT WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS
THIS FORECAST CYCLE.
FRIDAY-SATURDAY...MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS UPPER LOW STARTING TO TO MOVE
OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH GREAT SPREAD
DEVELOPING SATURDAY IN HOW IT EVOLVES AND THE EXACT TRACK THE LOW
CENTER TAKES AS IT TRACKS EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. BEST CHANCE
FOR LINGERING PRECIP FRIDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WHERE I ADDED CHANCE POPS. THE AXIS OF BEST
MOISTURE/LIFT SHOULD BE PREDOMINANTLY EAST OF THE CWA BY SATURDAY.
ECMWF/GEM SOLUTIONS ARE A LITTLE SLOWER IN BRINGING AN END TO
PRECIP...SO I LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN PLACE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT ACROSS THE EXTREME EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA.
SUNDAY-TUESDAY...GUIDANCE STARTS TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON
PATTERN ACROSS THE PLAINS BY SUNDAY. SHORTWAVE RIDGING SHOULD
QUICKLY FOLLOW THE EXIT OF THE UPPER LOW...WITH W/SW FLOW BUILDING
BACK OVER THE PLAINS. THIS PATTERN WILL FAVOR DRY CONDITIONS AND
WARMING TEMPERATURES. FORECAST REFLECTS THESE TRENDS WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR 60F ON SUNDAY...LOW/MID 60S ON MONDAY...AND
MID/UPPER 60S ON TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1015 PM MST TUE MAR 6 2012
GUSTY S/SW WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES IN BRINGING WITH IT GUSTY N/NE WINDS
WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. SUB-VFR CIGS EXPECTED AT KGLD
AROUND 11Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH 19Z OR SO WHILE AT KMCK SUB-VFR
CIGS EXPECTED FROM 12Z-18Z. BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...007
SHORT TERM...CJS
LONG TERM....DR
AVIATION...007
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
931 PM MST TUE MAR 6 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 926 PM MST TUE MAR 6 2012
TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING ACROSS THE EASTERN
1/3 OF THE AREA WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH OUT BY HILL CITY. DEWPOINTS
ALSO INCREASING OUT THERE WITH MID 40S BEING REPORTED. HRRR HAS A
GOOD HANDLE ON THE FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE INTO YUMA COUNTY BETWEEN
06-07Z THEN THROUGH THE REST OF THE AREA BY 13Z OR SO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. BEHIND THE FRONT DEWPOINTS WILL INCREASE REPLACING
CURRENT DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS.
WEDNESDAY MORNING LOW TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S IN FAR EASTERN
COLORADO TO THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS THE FAR EAST (HILL CITY).
HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S WITH GUSTY N/NE WINDS.
AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION TYPE...SHOULD BE DRY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY
ACROSS THE AREA WITH A SLIM POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS
FAR EASTERN COLORADO (WESTERN 1/2) FROM 12-15Z OR SO. AFTER 15Z
DRY FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 629 PM MST TUE MAR 6 2012
HAVE CANCELLED THE RED FLAG WARNING A BIT EARLY. AREAS WITH RH
BELOW 20 PERCENT HAVE WINDS OF 5-15 MPH. AREAS WITH WINDS GUSTING
OVER 25 MPH (HILL CITY AREA) HAVE RH VALUES ABOVE 25 PERCENT.
NO OTHER CHANGES MADE AT PRESENT TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 PM MST TUE MAR 6 2012
WINDS WILL DECREASE EARLY THIS EVENING...AND THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEE TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE REGION FROM THE NORTH DURING
THE MID MORNING NEAR 10/11Z. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR PATCHY
FREEZING DRIZZLE DURING THE MID MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT...MAINLY IN
EASTERN COLORADO...BUT MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
PRECIPITATION DURING THE MORNING HOURS. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
BEHIND THE FRONT...AND SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ENOUGH LIFT TO FORM LOW
STRATUS BEHIND THE FRONT...THOUGH ISENTROPIC LIFT IS WEAK DURING
THIS PERIOD. FORCING WILL DECREASE BY NOON...PRIMARILY DUE TO THE
MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT THROUGH AND AWAY FROM THE AREA.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 PM MST TUE MAR 6 2012
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EVOLUTION/TIMING OF THE FOUR CORNER CLOSED
LOW CONTINUES. GFS CONTINUES TO BE AN EXTREME OUTLIER WITH THE
EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LOW...AND IS BEING DISCOUNTED CONSIDERING THE
LACK OF ENSEMBLE SUPPORT OR SUPPORT FROM OTHER GUIDANCE. WHILE MOST
GUIDANCE AGREES ON A SINGLE SEMI-STATIONARY CUTOFF LOW CENTERED NEAR
THE FOUR CORNERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY THERE CONTINUES TO
BE DIFFERENCES RUN-RUN BETWEEN INDIVIDUAL PIECES OF GUIDANCE ON
EXACT POSITION AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM. EVEN WHAT APPEARS TO BE
SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IMPACTS POSITION OF
FAVORABLE LIFT AND MOISTURE RELATION TO THE CWA. THIS IN TURN
AFFECTS DETAILS SUCH AS PRECIP TYPE...AMOUNTS...AND WHERE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL ULTIMATELY BE. WITH THIS IN MIND I AM
HESITANT TO MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO INHERITED POP/WX TYPE FORECAST
THROUGH THESE PERIODS.
IN REGARDS TO POPS...I SPED UP THE ARRIVAL OF PRECIP TUESDAY EVENING
IN THE WEST...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS OVER MOST OF THE CWA
AFTER 03Z. THIS WAS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY FOR A FASTER
ARRIVAL OF LIFT/MOISTURE AS INDICATED BY SREF/NAM. BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIP STILL LOOKS TO BE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO STATIONARY
FRONT/BAROCLINIC ZONE.
WAA AND MOISTURE ADVECTION ON THE EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN FLANK OF
THE UPPER LOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. SHALLOW COLD AIR SHOULD STILL BE IN
PLACE OVER THE CWA...WHICH WILL LEAD TO THE POSSIBILITY OF
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WITH WARM LAYER ALOFT. THE AMOUNT OF MID
LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE AXIS OF WAA ALOFT WILL AFFECT THE CUTOFF
FROM SNOW TO RAIN TO SLEET TO FREEZING RAIN. I KEPT SOME MENTION
OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET IN THE WX GRIDS MAINLY IN THE SOUTH AND
EAST PARTS OF THE CWA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT JUST TO HIGHLIGHT THE
POSSIBILITY. THERE ARE STILL QUESTIONS REGARDS THE BEHAVIOR OF THE
UPPER LOW...MUCH LESS THESE TYPE OF DETAILS...SO I TRIED NOT TO GO
OVERBOARD IN REGARDS TO ICE/SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. THERE IS TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT TO PUT OUT WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS
THIS FORECAST CYCLE.
FRIDAY-SATURDAY...MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS UPPER LOW STARTING TO TO MOVE
OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH GREAT SPREAD
DEVELOPING SATURDAY IN HOW IT EVOLVES AND THE EXACT TRACK THE LOW
CENTER TAKES AS IT TRACKS EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. BEST CHANCE
FOR LINGERING PRECIP FRIDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WHERE I ADDED CHANCE POPS. THE AXIS OF BEST
MOISTURE/LIFT SHOULD BE PREDOMINANTLY EAST OF THE CWA BY SATURDAY.
ECMWF/GEM SOLUTIONS ARE A LITTLE SLOWER IN BRINGING AN END TO
PRECIP...SO I LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN PLACE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT ACROSS THE EXTREME EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA.
SUNDAY-TUESDAY...GUIDANCE STARTS TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON
PATTERN ACROSS THE PLAINS BY SUNDAY. SHORTWAVE RIDGING SHOULD
QUICKLY FOLLOW THE EXIT OF THE UPPER LOW...WITH W/SW FLOW BUILDING
BACK OVER THE PLAINS. THIS PATTERN WILL FAVOR DRY CONDITIONS AND
WARMING TEMPERATURES. FORECAST REFLECTS THESE TRENDS WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR 60F ON SUNDAY...LOW/MID 60S ON MONDAY...AND
MID/UPPER 60S ON TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 410 PM MST TUE MAR 6 2012
GUSTY WINDS WILL SUBSIDE EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS BY MID MORNING WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE TERMINALS NEAR 10/11Z. BEHIND THE FRONT WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AROUND 20G30KTS. MODEL
SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE THAT STRATUS IS MORE LIKELY THAN FOG...AND
THE NAM IS THE ONLY MODEL CURRENTLY INDICATING PRECIP BEHIND THE
FRONT. WHILE THE NAM SOUNDINGS SUPPORT FREEZING DRIZZLE...BOTH THE
NAM AND GFS SUPPORT LOW STRATUS...AND THE EC ALSO KEEPS PRECIP
FROM THE TERMINALS. HAVE INCLUDED MVFR CEILINGS AT BOTH
TERMINALS...WITH THE CEILING RISING BEHIND THE FRONT LATE IN THE
PERIOD.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...007
SHORT TERM...CJS
LONG TERM....DR
AVIATION...CJS/007
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1241 PM EST WED MAR 7 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 959 AM EST WED MAR 7 2012
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST...LARGELY TO DEAL WITH
THE TEMPERATURES AND FOG. NOT MUCH FOG ACROSS UPPER MI AND WI THIS
MORNING AND IT APPEARS TO BE LARGELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC FRONT
FARTHER W NEAR KDLH. THUS...HAVE TAPERED BACK FOG MENTION TO BE
LOCATED ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. DID LEAVE MENTION ALONG LK MI
THIS AFTN...AS WARM MOIST AIR WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE RELATIVELY
COOL LK MI WATERS. DID RAISE HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES FOR TODAY...AS
LIMITED FALL OVERNIGHT HAS KEPT VALUES IN THE 40S AND LOW 50S THIS
MORNING. THINK THE INCREASING CLOUDS AND PCPN STARTING TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE MN/WI BORDER BETWEEN KMSP-KDLH WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM RISING
MUCH ABOVE THE LOW 50S.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 523 AM EST WED MAR 7 2012
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A POSITIVE TILT MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH FROM SASK/MANITOBA TOWARD A CLOSED LOW OVER SRN NEVADA
RESULTING IN SW FLOW FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS TO THE WRN GREAT LAKES.
AT THE SFC...A TROUGH/FRONT EXTENDED FROM NW ONTARIO AND NE MN INTO
ERN NEBRASKA. SOME LIGHT SNOW HAD DEVELOPED BEHIND THE FRONT OVER
ERN ND INTO FAR NW MN. OTHERWISE...NO PCPN WAS OBSERVED ALONG OR
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. VERY MILD AIR HAD SPREAD INTO THE REGION AHEAD
OF THE FRONT ON SSW WINDS WITH TEMPS OVERNIGHT CLIMBING INTO THE 40S
ACROSS MUCH OF WEST AND CENTRAL UPPER MI. BNDRY LAYR MIXING HAS
HELPED KEEP DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS HIGH ENOUGH TO LIMIT ANY FOG
DEVELOPMENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 523 AM EST WED MAR 7 2012
MODELS HAVE CONTINUED WITH TREND TOWARD A LATER ARRIVAL OF THE
FRONT...MOVING INTO IWD AFT 18Z AND TO MQT-IMT BY 00Z. MOISTURE CONV
AND 900-700 MB FGEN ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT AND INCREASING COVERAGE OF LIGHT PCPN BAND
THROUGH WRN UPPER MI IN THE AFTERNOON. PCPN MAY ALSO SPREAD INTO THE
ERN PORTION OF THE CWA WITH 290K-295K ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. FCST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT LIQUID PCPN OVER MOST OF THE AREA WITH
POTENTIAL FOR CHANGEOVER TO FROZEN PCPN OVER THE FAR WEST LATE. WITH
A SUBSTANTIAL DRY 750-600 MB LAYER AND FREEZING LEVEL ABOVE THE MOIST
LAYER...LACK OF ICE CRYSTALS WOULD LEAD TO LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF
MAINLY DRIZZLE. THE NAM/GFS SUGGEST THAT A SHORTWAVE AND STRONGER
850-600 MB FGEN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL REMAIN MAINLY TO THE NW OF THE
CWA...STREAKING THROUGH NW LAKE SUPERIOR.
ENOUGH OF A COLD LAYER MAY DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT BY LATE
AFTERNOON WEST AND INTO THE EVENING CENTRAL WITH A SMALL LAYER NEAR
800-750 MB AT OR ABOVE 0C FOR A VERY BRIEF PERIOD OF SOME SLEET.
HOWEVER...ONCE THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND COLD AIR ARRIVE FROM WEST TO
EAST...THE PRECIP TYPE SHOULD CHANGE OVER FROM DZ/PL TO SNOW. WITH
ONLY A BRIEF PERIOD FOR ANY SNOW POSSIBLE...ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD
AMOUNT TO LESS THAN A HALF INCH. LAKE ENHANCED SNOW POTENTIAL OVER
THE WEST WITH NW FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE LIMITED BY THE
MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND QUICK ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR AND LOW INVERSIO
HEIGHTS NEAR 3K FT.
THURSDAY...AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES INTO THE AREA MODERATE TO
STRONG 850-500 MB QVECTOR CONV...DAYTIME HEATING AND STEEP 900-700
MB LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT SCT SHSN DURING THE AFTERNOON. ANY LAKE
EFFECT CONTRIBUTION WILL ONLY BE MARGINAL WITH 850 MB TEMPS ONLY TO
AROUND -11C.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 523 AM EST WED MAR 7 2012
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT UPR TROUGH AND COLDER AIR DIGS FM
NORTHERN CANADA THURSDAY INTO THE EASTERN CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT.
THIS PROVIDES GLANCING BLOW OF FAIRLY CHILLY AIR /H85 TEMPS AS LOW
AS -18C/ ACROSS ONTARIO AND THE UPR GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY NIGHT.
SHORTWAVE/UPR JET IS FCST TO DIG FM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES INTO THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT MAJORITY OF H85-H7/H7-H5
Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL ALREADY BE TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF LK
SUPERIOR EARLY THURSDAY EVENING WITH SUBSIDENCE SPREADING ACROSS
UPR MICHIGAN. EVEN WITH THE SUBSIDENCE...DEEP AND COLD TROUGH LEADS
TO MOIST PROFILE AOA H9 THROUGH H6 AND STEEP LAPSE RATES UP TO 8C/KM
WITHIN THAT MOIST LAYER PER GFS/NAM SOUNDINGS NEAR LK SUPERIOR. SNOW
SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL PROBABLY BE PRETTY CONVECTIVE/SPLOTCHY
IN COVERAGE. BLYR WINDS ARE STEADILY VEERING FM WNW TO NW THROUGH
THE NIGHT WHICH LIMITS LK EFFECT IN ANY ONE PARTICULAR AREA...THOUGH
SEEMS THAT HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN UPR MI AND AREAS EAST OF
MARQUETTE TO NEWBERRY WOULD STAND TO SEE THE MOST SNOW WITH NW WIND
FCST AT H925/H85.
BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH AS THERE IS
CONSENSUS THAT MOISTURE AOA H8 DRIES OUT AND SINCE TEMPS AT
900MB-925MB ARE NOT THAT COOL AT ONLY AROUND -10C. DO SEE SOME
COOLING IN THE H9-H8 LAYER ON FRIDAY AS SECONDARY COLD FRONT SLIDES
ACROSS LK SUPERIOR AND UPR MICHIGAN. FCST SOUNDING AT ERY AT THE END
OF THE FETCH SHOW MOISTENING H95-H8 WITH SOME DRY AIR LINGERING BLO
H95. NOT MUCH SHEAR OR DIRECTIONAL CHANGES IN THE MOIST LAYER SO LK
EFFECT COULD GET BETTER ORGANIZED FOR A TIME IN THE MORNING BEFORE
DAYTIME DRYING AND INCREASING SUBSIDENCE FM ARRIVAL OF SFC RIDGE
LEADS TO DIMINISHING TREND IN THE AFTN. EXPECT ALL LK EFFECT TO
FINISH UP FRIDAY EVENING AS SFC RIDGE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION ARRIVE
IN EARNEST.
IN THE EXTENDED...
WARM AIR ADVECTION ON SATURDAY IS QUITE VIGOROUS AND THERE ARE SOME
PRETTY BEEFY S/SW 1000-850MB WINDS FCST FM GFS/ECMWF IN THE RETURN
FLOW REGIME. IN FACT...H925-H85 WINDS FM BOTH MODELS ARE AOA 45 KTS.
GIVEN THESE LOW-LEVEL WINDS...TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BTWN
RIDGE DEPARTING INTO CNTRL GREAT LAKES AND SHARP NORTH-TO-SOUTH
ORIENTED SFC TROUGH PRESSING ACROSS CNTRL CANADA...AND VERY STRONG
PRESSURE FALLS SETTING UP JUST NORTH OF LK SUPERIOR...SATURDAY COULD
BE A BREEZY DAY EVEN WITH THE HIGHER STABILITY DUE TO THE STRONG
WARM AIR ADVECTION/INVERSION. MODELS SEEM TO BE LATCHING ONTO THIS
MORE WINDY TREND. SHOULD SEE HIGHS ON SATURDAY SIMILAR TO THOSE SEEN
YESTERDAY...MAINLY MID-UPR 40S WITH TEMPS STAYING IN THE UPR 30S TO
AROUND 40 DEGREES DOWNWIND OF COOLER LK MICHIGAN WATERS.
MAIN PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN EXTENDED ARE IN THE SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY TIME FRAME. AGREEMENT FM THE MODELS REMAINS LOW IN HOW FAR
NORTH UPR LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE DESERT SW WILL BE PROPELLED INTO
GREAT LAKES. ADDED UNCERTAINTY IS LATEST MODEL RUNS REMAIN
CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. ECMWF BRINGS UPR LOW INTO UPR
MICHIGAN LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A PERIOD OF RAIN
SHOWERS. GFS KEEPS THE LOW MORE OVR OHIO VALLEY...MISSING CWA WITH
ANY RAINFALL. CANADIAN LOOKS LIKE THE ECMWF BUT IS JUST SLOWER IN
BRINGING THE SYSTEM INTO UPR MICHIGAN. NO REAL TIP OFF TO BUDGE OFF
CONSENSUS AT THIS POINT. SO...HAVE POPS OVER MAINLY SOUTHERN CWA ON
SUNDAY AND MID RANGE CHANCE POPS OVR MOST CWA SUNDAY NIGHT. ONE
TREND THAT IS DEVELOPING IS THE ECMWF SHOWING IT JUST COLD ENOUGH ON
BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM BY MONDAY TO HAVE A CHANCE OF SNOW OVR THE
WESTERN CWA. JUST CANNOT GO THIS WAY AT THIS POINT...GIVEN THE LACK
OF AGREEMENT FM THE MODELS IN THE FIRST PLACE. ESSENTIALLY KEPT WHAT
WE HAD GOING WHICH WAS STAYING WARM WITH CHANCE OF RAIN SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. NO CONFIDENCE AFTER MONDAY AS GFS/ECMWF BECOME COMPLETELY
OUT OF PHASE WITH EACH OTHER. CONSENSUS FCST OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
FOR RAIN SHOWERS WITH TEMPS STAYING WARM WORKS FOR NOW UNTIL MORE
SUBSTANTIAL TRENDS CAN BE BETTER IDENTIFIED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM EST WED MAR 7 2012
RAIN STARTING TO DEVELOP OVER NW WI ALONG THE COLD FRONT
STRETCHING FROM THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD OF MN THROUGH KMSP.
MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT HAS ALSO LED TO SOME PATCHY/AREAS OF
FOG/DZ TO GO ALONG WITH THE STRONGER SHOWERS. EXPECT THESE LOWER
CIGS/VSBYS TO AFFECT KIWD/KCMX THIS EVENING AS THE MAIN ENERGY
MOVES NE. AS THE FRONT MOVES E ACROSS UPPER MI THIS AFTN AND EARLY
EVENING...EXPECT THE PRECIP TO BECOME MORE SHOWERY AS IT NEARS KSAW
AND ONLY HAVE PERIODS OF LOWER CIGS/VSBYS TO IFR CONDITIONS.
ONCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...EXPECT A W TO E TRANSITION TO -SHSN
AS COLDER AIR SPILLS OVER LK SUPERIOR. THINK THIS WILL LARGELY LEAD
TO LOWER CIGS...BUT COULD SEE PERIODS OF STRONGER -SHSN TO REDUCE
VSBYS TO MVFR CATEGORY. WEDGE OF DRIER AIR WILL MOVE OVER THE WRN
CWA THURS MORNING AND BRING AN END TO THE LOWER CLOUDS AND -SHSN.
HELD ON TO THE CLOUDS LONGER AT KSAW DUE TO LINGERING LLVL MOISTURE
AND NNW FLOW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 523 AM EST WED MAR 7 2012
GUSTY SW WINDS TO 30 KTS STILL POSSIBLE TODAY OVER EASTERN SECTIONS
AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ONCE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...MAY SEE
NW WINDS TO 30 KTS INTO THURSDAY OVER MUCH OF THE LAKE. AS COLDER
AIR FLOWS ACROSS LK SUPERIOR THURSDAY NIGHT...INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE
THERMAL PROFILE WITH 30-40 KT WINDS IN MIXED LAYER SUGGEST A GALE
WATCH MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED. MODELS ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT WITH
STRENGTH OF WINDS SO HAVE HELD OFF ON ANY HEADLINE FOR NOW AND JUST
MENTIONED GALE GUSTS. STRONGER WINDS AND HIGH WAVES WITH A BRIEF SHOT
OF COLDER AIR RESULTS IN POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY OVR CNTRL
AND EASTERN LK SUPERIOR LATER THURSDAY NIGHT. WINDS AND WAVES
DIMINISH LATER FRIDAY WITH ARRIVAL OF HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUT THERE
COULD BE ANOTHER STRONGER PERIOD OF SOUTH- SOUTHWEST WINDS LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. IT IS A SITUATION WITH WARM AIR RIDING
OVR THE COOLER LAKE WATERS...BUT STRONG PRESSURE FALLS NORTH OF THE
LAKE AND TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH BOOST TO SEE
GALES. WINDS DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 25 KTS BY SUNDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SRF
SYNOPSIS...JLB
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...SRF
MARINE...JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1001 AM EST WED MAR 7 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 959 AM EST WED MAR 7 2012
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST...LARGELY TO DEAL WITH
THE TEMPERATURES AND FOG. NOT MUCH FOG ACROSS UPPER MI AND WI THIS
MORNING AND IT APPEARS TO BE LARGELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC FRONT
FARTHER W NEAR KDLH. THUS...HAVE TAPERED BACK FOG MENTION TO BE
LOCATED ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. DID LEAVE MENTION ALONG LK MI
THIS AFTN...AS WARM MOIST AIR WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE RELATIVELY
COOL LK MI WATERS. DID RAISE HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES FOR TODAY...AS
LIMITED FALL OVERNIGHT HAS KEPT VALUES IN THE 40S AND LOW 50S THIS
MORNING. THINK THE INCREASING CLOUDS AND PCPN STARTING TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE MN/WI BORDER BETWEEN KMSP-KDLH WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM RISING
MUCH ABOVE THE LOW 50S.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 523 AM EST WED MAR 7 2012
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A POSITIVE TILT MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH FROM SASK/MANITOBA TOWARD A CLOSED LOW OVER SRN NEVADA
RESULTING IN SW FLOW FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS TO THE WRN GREAT LAKES.
AT THE SFC...A TROUGH/FRONT EXTENDED FROM NW ONTARIO AND NE MN INTO
ERN NEBRASKA. SOME LIGHT SNOW HAD DEVELOPED BEHIND THE FRONT OVER
ERN ND INTO FAR NW MN. OTHERWISE...NO PCPN WAS OBSERVED ALONG OR
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. VERY MILD AIR HAD SPREAD INTO THE REGION AHEAD
OF THE FRONT ON SSW WINDS WITH TEMPS OVERNIGHT CLIMBING INTO THE 40S
ACROSS MUCH OF WEST AND CENTRAL UPPER MI. BNDRY LAYR MIXING HAS
HELPED KEEP DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS HIGH ENOUGH TO LIMIT ANY FOG
DEVELOPMENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 523 AM EST WED MAR 7 2012
MODELS HAVE CONTINUED WITH TREND TOWARD A LATER ARRIVAL OF THE
FRONT...MOVING INTO IWD AFT 18Z AND TO MQT-IMT BY 00Z. MOISTURE CONV
AND 900-700 MB FGEN ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT AND INCREASING COVERAGE OF LIGHT PCPN BAND
THROUGH WRN UPPER MI IN THE AFTERNOON. PCPN MAY ALSO SPREAD INTO THE
ERN PORTION OF THE CWA WITH 290K-295K ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. FCST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT LIQUID PCPN OVER MOST OF THE AREA WITH
POTENTIAL FOR CHANGEOVER TO FROZEN PCPN OVER THE FAR WEST LATE. WITH
A SUBSTANTIAL DRY 750-600 MB LAYER AND FREEZING LEVEL ABOVE THE MOIST
LAYER...LACK OF ICE CRYSTALS WOULD LEAD TO LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF
MAINLY DRIZZLE. THE NAM/GFS SUGGEST THAT A SHORTWAVE AND STRONGER
850-600 MB FGEN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL REMAIN MAINLY TO THE NW OF THE
CWA...STREAKING THROUGH NW LAKE SUPERIOR.
ENOUGH OF A COLD LAYER MAY DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT BY LATE
AFTERNOON WEST AND INTO THE EVENING CENTRAL WITH A SMALL LAYER NEAR
800-750 MB AT OR ABOVE 0C FOR A VERY BRIEF PERIOD OF SOME SLEET.
HOWEVER...ONCE THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND COLD AIR ARRIVE FROM WEST TO
EAST...THE PRECIP TYPE SHOULD CHANGE OVER FROM DZ/PL TO SNOW. WITH
ONLY A BRIEF PERIOD FOR ANY SNOW POSSIBLE...ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD
AMOUNT TO LESS THAN A HALF INCH. LAKE ENHANCED SNOW POTENTIAL OVER
THE WEST WITH NW FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE LIMITED BY THE
MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND QUICK ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR AND LOW INVERSIO
HEIGHTS NEAR 3K FT.
THURSDAY...AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES INTO THE AREA MODERATE TO
STRONG 850-500 MB QVECTOR CONV...DAYTIME HEATING AND STEEP 900-700
MB LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT SCT SHSN DURING THE AFTERNOON. ANY LAKE
EFFECT CONTRIBUTION WILL ONLY BE MARGINAL WITH 850 MB TEMPS ONLY TO
AROUND -11C.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 523 AM EST WED MAR 7 2012
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT UPR TROUGH AND COLDER AIR DIGS FM
NORTHERN CANADA THURSDAY INTO THE EASTERN CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT.
THIS PROVIDES GLANCING BLOW OF FAIRLY CHILLY AIR /H85 TEMPS AS LOW
AS -18C/ ACROSS ONTARIO AND THE UPR GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY NIGHT.
SHORTWAVE/UPR JET IS FCST TO DIG FM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES INTO THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT MAJORITY OF H85-H7/H7-H5
Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL ALREADY BE TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF LK
SUPERIOR EARLY THURSDAY EVENING WITH SUBSIDENCE SPREADING ACROSS
UPR MICHIGAN. EVEN WITH THE SUBSIDENCE...DEEP AND COLD TROUGH LEADS
TO MOIST PROFILE AOA H9 THROUGH H6 AND STEEP LAPSE RATES UP TO 8C/KM
WITHIN THAT MOIST LAYER PER GFS/NAM SOUNDINGS NEAR LK SUPERIOR. SNOW
SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL PROBABLY BE PRETTY CONVECTIVE/SPLOTCHY
IN COVERAGE. BLYR WINDS ARE STEADILY VEERING FM WNW TO NW THROUGH
THE NIGHT WHICH LIMITS LK EFFECT IN ANY ONE PARTICULAR AREA...THOUGH
SEEMS THAT HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN UPR MI AND AREAS EAST OF
MARQUETTE TO NEWBERRY WOULD STAND TO SEE THE MOST SNOW WITH NW WIND
FCST AT H925/H85.
BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH AS THERE IS
CONSENSUS THAT MOISTURE AOA H8 DRIES OUT AND SINCE TEMPS AT
900MB-925MB ARE NOT THAT COOL AT ONLY AROUND -10C. DO SEE SOME
COOLING IN THE H9-H8 LAYER ON FRIDAY AS SECONDARY COLD FRONT SLIDES
ACROSS LK SUPERIOR AND UPR MICHIGAN. FCST SOUNDING AT ERY AT THE END
OF THE FETCH SHOW MOISTENING H95-H8 WITH SOME DRY AIR LINGERING BLO
H95. NOT MUCH SHEAR OR DIRECTIONAL CHANGES IN THE MOIST LAYER SO LK
EFFECT COULD GET BETTER ORGANIZED FOR A TIME IN THE MORNING BEFORE
DAYTIME DRYING AND INCREASING SUBSIDENCE FM ARRIVAL OF SFC RIDGE
LEADS TO DIMINISHING TREND IN THE AFTN. EXPECT ALL LK EFFECT TO
FINISH UP FRIDAY EVENING AS SFC RIDGE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION ARRIVE
IN EARNEST.
IN THE EXTENDED...
WARM AIR ADVECTION ON SATURDAY IS QUITE VIGOROUS AND THERE ARE SOME
PRETTY BEEFY S/SW 1000-850MB WINDS FCST FM GFS/ECMWF IN THE RETURN
FLOW REGIME. IN FACT...H925-H85 WINDS FM BOTH MODELS ARE AOA 45 KTS.
GIVEN THESE LOW-LEVEL WINDS...TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BTWN
RIDGE DEPARTING INTO CNTRL GREAT LAKES AND SHARP NORTH-TO-SOUTH
ORIENTED SFC TROUGH PRESSING ACROSS CNTRL CANADA...AND VERY STRONG
PRESSURE FALLS SETTING UP JUST NORTH OF LK SUPERIOR...SATURDAY COULD
BE A BREEZY DAY EVEN WITH THE HIGHER STABILITY DUE TO THE STRONG
WARM AIR ADVECTION/INVERSION. MODELS SEEM TO BE LATCHING ONTO THIS
MORE WINDY TREND. SHOULD SEE HIGHS ON SATURDAY SIMILAR TO THOSE SEEN
YESTERDAY...MAINLY MID-UPR 40S WITH TEMPS STAYING IN THE UPR 30S TO
AROUND 40 DEGREES DOWNWIND OF COOLER LK MICHIGAN WATERS.
MAIN PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN EXTENDED ARE IN THE SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY TIME FRAME. AGREEMENT FM THE MODELS REMAINS LOW IN HOW FAR
NORTH UPR LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE DESERT SW WILL BE PROPELLED INTO
GREAT LAKES. ADDED UNCERTAINTY IS LATEST MODEL RUNS REMAIN
CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. ECMWF BRINGS UPR LOW INTO UPR
MICHIGAN LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A PERIOD OF RAIN
SHOWERS. GFS KEEPS THE LOW MORE OVR OHIO VALLEY...MISSING CWA WITH
ANY RAINFALL. CANADIAN LOOKS LIKE THE ECMWF BUT IS JUST SLOWER IN
BRINGING THE SYSTEM INTO UPR MICHIGAN. NO REAL TIP OFF TO BUDGE OFF
CONSENSUS AT THIS POINT. SO...HAVE POPS OVER MAINLY SOUTHERN CWA ON
SUNDAY AND MID RANGE CHANCE POPS OVR MOST CWA SUNDAY NIGHT. ONE
TREND THAT IS DEVELOPING IS THE ECMWF SHOWING IT JUST COLD ENOUGH ON
BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM BY MONDAY TO HAVE A CHANCE OF SNOW OVR THE
WESTERN CWA. JUST CANNOT GO THIS WAY AT THIS POINT...GIVEN THE LACK
OF AGREEMENT FM THE MODELS IN THE FIRST PLACE. ESSENTIALLY KEPT WHAT
WE HAD GOING WHICH WAS STAYING WARM WITH CHANCE OF RAIN SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. NO CONFIDENCE AFTER MONDAY AS GFS/ECMWF BECOME COMPLETELY
OUT OF PHASE WITH EACH OTHER. CONSENSUS FCST OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
FOR RAIN SHOWERS WITH TEMPS STAYING WARM WORKS FOR NOW UNTIL MORE
SUBSTANTIAL TRENDS CAN BE BETTER IDENTIFIED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 607 AM EST WED MAR 7 2012
SINCE THE RH OF THE INCOMING AIRMASS REMAINS FAIRLY LO DUE TO THE
ANOMALOUS WARMTH THE ARRIVAL OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HAS BEEN DELAYED.
EXPECT AT LEAST AN MVFR CIG/VSBY TO DEVELOP FIRST AT SAW THIS
MORNING BY AROUND 15Z...WITH MORE OF AN UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT.
DOWNSLOPE NATURE OF S WIND AT IWD/CMX ARGUES AGAINST GOING LOWER
THAN VFR TIL LATE MORNING. STILL EXPECTING SOME LO CLDS TO ARRIVE
AHEAD OF INCOMING COLD FNT BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS
SURGING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. BEST SHOT AT IFR/PERHAPS LIFR WL
BE RIGHT BEHIND COLD FROPA AT CMX WITH UPSLOPE WNW WIND...BUT PCPN
INTENSITY LOOKS A BIT LESS IMPRESSIVE WITH BEST FORCING PROGGED TO
PASS TO THE NW. THE ARRIVAL OF COLDER AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA
WL CHANGE THE PCPN TO SHSN... BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR
GIVEN ONLY MODERATELY COLD INCOMING AIRMASS THAT WILL LIMIT LES
INTENSITY.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 523 AM EST WED MAR 7 2012
GUSTY SW WINDS TO 30 KTS STILL POSSIBLE TODAY OVER EASTERN SECTIONS
AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ONCE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...MAY SEE
NW WINDS TO 30 KTS INTO THURSDAY OVER MUCH OF THE LAKE. AS COLDER
AIR FLOWS ACROSS LK SUPERIOR THURSDAY NIGHT...INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE
THERMAL PROFILE WITH 30-40 KT WINDS IN MIXED LAYER SUGGEST A GALE
WATCH MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED. MODELS ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT WITH
STRENGTH OF WINDS SO HAVE HELD OFF ON ANY HEADLINE FOR NOW AND JUST
MENTIONED GALE GUSTS. STRONGER WINDS AND HIGH WAVES WITH A BRIEF SHOT
OF COLDER AIR RESULTS IN POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY OVR CNTRL
AND EASTERN LK SUPERIOR LATER THURSDAY NIGHT. WINDS AND WAVES
DIMINISH LATER FRIDAY WITH ARRIVAL OF HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUT THERE
COULD BE ANOTHER STRONGER PERIOD OF SOUTH- SOUTHWEST WINDS LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. IT IS A SITUATION WITH WARM AIR RIDING
OVR THE COOLER LAKE WATERS...BUT STRONG PRESSURE FALLS NORTH OF THE
LAKE AND TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH BOOST TO SEE
GALES. WINDS DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 25 KTS BY SUNDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SRF
SYNOPSIS...JLB
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
615 AM EST WED MAR 7 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 523 AM EST WED MAR 7 2012
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A POSITIVE TILT MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH FROM SASK/MANITOBA TOWARD A CLOSED LOW OVER SRN NEVADA
RESULTING IN SW FLOW FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS TO THE WRN GREAT LAKES.
AT THE SFC...A TROUGH/FRONT EXTENDED FROM NW ONTARIO AND NE MN INTO
ERN NEBRASKA. SOME LIGHT SNOW HAD DEVELOPED BEHIND THE FRONT OVER
ERN ND INTO FAR NW MN. OTHERWISE...NO PCPN WAS OBSERVED ALONG OR
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. VERY MILD AIR HAD SPREAD INTO THE REGION AHEAD
OF THE FRONT ON SSW WINDS WITH TEMPS OVERNIGHT CLIMBING INTO THE 40S
ACROSS MUCH OF WEST AND CENTRAL UPPER MI. BNDRY LAYR MIXING HAS
HELPED KEEP DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS HIGH ENOUGH TO LIMIT ANY FOG
DEVELOPMENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 523 AM EST WED MAR 7 2012
MODELS HAVE CONTINUED WITH TREND TOWARD A LATER ARRIVAL OF THE
FRONT...MOVING INTO IWD AFT 18Z AND TO MQT-IMT BY 00Z. MOISTURE CONV
AND 900-700 MB FGEN ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT AND INCREASING COVERAGE OF LIGHT PCPN BAND
THROUGH WRN UPPER MI IN THE AFTERNOON. PCPN MAY ALSO SPREAD INTO THE
ERN PORTION OF THE CWA WITH 290K-295K ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. FCST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT LIQUID PCPN OVER MOST OF THE AREA WITH
POTENTIAL FOR CHANGEOVER TO FROZEN PCPN OVER THE FAR WEST LATE. WITH
A SUBSTANTIAL DRY 750-600 MB LAYER AND FREEZING LEVEL ABOVE THE MOIST
LAYER...LACK OF ICE CRYSTALS WOULD LEAD TO LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF
MAINLY DRIZZLE. THE NAM/GFS SUGGEST THAT A SHORTWAVE AND STRONGER
850-600 MB FGEN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL REMAIN MAINLY TO THE NW OF THE
CWA...STREAKING THROUGH NW LAKE SUPERIOR.
ENOUGH OF A COLD LAYER MAY DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT BY LATE
AFTERNOON WEST AND INTO THE EVENING CENTRAL WITH A SMALL LAYER NEAR
800-750 MB AT OR ABOVE 0C FOR A VERY BRIEF PERIOD OF SOME SLEET.
HOWEVER...ONCE THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND COLD AIR ARRIVE FROM WEST TO
EAST...THE PRECIP TYPE SHOULD CHANGE OVER FROM DZ/PL TO SNOW. WITH
ONLY A BRIEF PERIOD FOR ANY SNOW POSSIBLE...ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD
AMOUNT TO LESS THAN A HALF INCH. LAKE ENHANCED SNOW POTENTIAL OVER
THE WEST WITH NW FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE LIMITED BY THE
MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND QUICK ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR AND LOW INVERSIO
HEIGHTS NEAR 3K FT.
THURSDAY...AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES INTO THE AREA MODERATE TO
STRONG 850-500 MB QVECTOR CONV...DAYTIME HEATING AND STEEP 900-700
MB LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT SCT SHSN DURING THE AFTERNOON. ANY LAKE
EFFECT CONTRIBUTION WILL ONLY BE MARGINAL WITH 850 MB TEMPS ONLY TO
AROUND -11C.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 523 AM EST WED MAR 7 2012
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT UPR TROUGH AND COLDER AIR DIGS FM
NORTHERN CANADA THURSDAY INTO THE EASTERN CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT.
THIS PROVIDES GLANCING BLOW OF FAIRLY CHILLY AIR /H85 TEMPS AS LOW
AS -18C/ ACROSS ONTARIO AND THE UPR GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY NIGHT.
SHORTWAVE/UPR JET IS FCST TO DIG FM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES INTO THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT MAJORITY OF H85-H7/H7-H5
Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL ALREADY BE TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF LK
SUPERIOR EARLY THURSDAY EVENING WITH SUBSIDENCE SPREADING ACROSS
UPR MICHIGAN. EVEN WITH THE SUBSIDENCE...DEEP AND COLD TROUGH LEADS
TO MOIST PROFILE AOA H9 THROUGH H6 AND STEEP LAPSE RATES UP TO 8C/KM
WITHIN THAT MOIST LAYER PER GFS/NAM SOUNDINGS NEAR LK SUPERIOR. SNOW
SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL PROBABLY BE PRETTY CONVECTIVE/SPLOTCHY
IN COVERAGE. BLYR WINDS ARE STEADILY VEERING FM WNW TO NW THROUGH
THE NIGHT WHICH LIMITS LK EFFECT IN ANY ONE PARTICULAR AREA...THOUGH
SEEMS THAT HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN UPR MI AND AREAS EAST OF
MARQUETTE TO NEWBERRY WOULD STAND TO SEE THE MOST SNOW WITH NW WIND
FCST AT H925/H85.
BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH AS THERE IS
CONSENSUS THAT MOISTURE AOA H8 DRIES OUT AND SINCE TEMPS AT
900MB-925MB ARE NOT THAT COOL AT ONLY AROUND -10C. DO SEE SOME
COOLING IN THE H9-H8 LAYER ON FRIDAY AS SECONDARY COLD FRONT SLIDES
ACROSS LK SUPERIOR AND UPR MICHIGAN. FCST SOUNDING AT ERY AT THE END
OF THE FETCH SHOW MOISTENING H95-H8 WITH SOME DRY AIR LINGERING BLO
H95. NOT MUCH SHEAR OR DIRECTIONAL CHANGES IN THE MOIST LAYER SO LK
EFFECT COULD GET BETTER ORGANIZED FOR A TIME IN THE MORNING BEFORE
DAYTIME DRYING AND INCREASING SUBSIDENCE FM ARRIVAL OF SFC RIDGE
LEADS TO DIMINISHING TREND IN THE AFTN. EXPECT ALL LK EFFECT TO
FINISH UP FRIDAY EVENING AS SFC RIDGE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION ARRIVE
IN EARNEST.
IN THE EXTENDED...
WARM AIR ADVECTION ON SATURDAY IS QUITE VIGOROUS AND THERE ARE SOME
PRETTY BEEFY S/SW 1000-850MB WINDS FCST FM GFS/ECMWF IN THE RETURN
FLOW REGIME. IN FACT...H925-H85 WINDS FM BOTH MODELS ARE AOA 45 KTS.
GIVEN THESE LOW-LEVEL WINDS...TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BTWN
RIDGE DEPARTING INTO CNTRL GREAT LAKES AND SHARP NORTH-TO-SOUTH
ORIENTED SFC TROUGH PRESSING ACROSS CNTRL CANADA...AND VERY STRONG
PRESSURE FALLS SETTING UP JUST NORTH OF LK SUPERIOR...SATURDAY COULD
BE A BREEZY DAY EVEN WITH THE HIGHER STABILITY DUE TO THE STRONG
WARM AIR ADVECTION/INVERSION. MODELS SEEM TO BE LATCHING ONTO THIS
MORE WINDY TREND. SHOULD SEE HIGHS ON SATURDAY SIMILAR TO THOSE SEEN
YESTERDAY...MAINLY MID-UPR 40S WITH TEMPS STAYING IN THE UPR 30S TO
AROUND 40 DEGREES DOWNWIND OF COOLER LK MICHIGAN WATERS.
MAIN PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN EXTENDED ARE IN THE SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY TIME FRAME. AGREEMENT FM THE MODELS REMAINS LOW IN HOW FAR
NORTH UPR LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE DESERT SW WILL BE PROPELLED INTO
GREAT LAKES. ADDED UNCERTAINTY IS LATEST MODEL RUNS REMAIN
CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. ECMWF BRINGS UPR LOW INTO UPR
MICHIGAN LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A PERIOD OF RAIN
SHOWERS. GFS KEEPS THE LOW MORE OVR OHIO VALLEY...MISSING CWA WITH
ANY RAINFALL. CANADIAN LOOKS LIKE THE ECMWF BUT IS JUST SLOWER IN
BRINGING THE SYSTEM INTO UPR MICHIGAN. NO REAL TIP OFF TO BUDGE OFF
CONSENSUS AT THIS POINT. SO...HAVE POPS OVER MAINLY SOUTHERN CWA ON
SUNDAY AND MID RANGE CHANCE POPS OVR MOST CWA SUNDAY NIGHT. ONE
TREND THAT IS DEVELOPING IS THE ECMWF SHOWING IT JUST COLD ENOUGH ON
BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM BY MONDAY TO HAVE A CHANCE OF SNOW OVR THE
WESTERN CWA. JUST CANNOT GO THIS WAY AT THIS POINT...GIVEN THE LACK
OF AGREEMENT FM THE MODELS IN THE FIRST PLACE. ESSENTIALLY KEPT WHAT
WE HAD GOING WHICH WAS STAYING WARM WITH CHANCE OF RAIN SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. NO CONFIDENCE AFTER MONDAY AS GFS/ECMWF BECOME COMPLETELY
OUT OF PHASE WITH EACH OTHER. CONSENSUS FCST OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
FOR RAIN SHOWERS WITH TEMPS STAYING WARM WORKS FOR NOW UNTIL MORE
SUBSTANTIAL TRENDS CAN BE BETTER IDENTIFIED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 607 AM EST WED MAR 7 2012
SINCE THE RH OF THE INCOMING AIRMASS REMAINS FAIRLY LO DUE TO THE
ANOMALOUS WARMTH THE ARRIVAL OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HAS BEEN DELAYED.
EXPECT AT LEAST AN MVFR CIG/VSBY TO DEVELOP FIRST AT SAW THIS
MORNING BY AROUND 15Z...WITH MORE OF AN UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT.
DOWNSLOPE NATURE OF S WIND AT IWD/CMX ARGUES AGAINST GOING LOWER
THAN VFR TIL LATE MORNING. STILL EXPECTING SOME LO CLDS TO ARRIVE
AHEAD OF INCOMING COLD FNT BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS
SURGING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. BEST SHOT AT IFR/PERHAPS LIFR WL
BE RIGHT BEHIND COLD FROPA AT CMX WITH UPSLOPE WNW WIND...BUT PCPN
INTENSITY LOOKS A BIT LESS IMPRESSIVE WITH BEST FORCING PROGGED TO
PASS TO THE NW. THE ARRIVAL OF COLDER AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA
WL CHANGE THE PCPN TO SHSN... BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR
GIVEN ONLY MODERATELY COLD INCOMING AIRMASS THAT WILL LIMIT LES
INTENSITY.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 523 AM EST WED MAR 7 2012
GUSTY SW WINDS TO 30 KTS STILL POSSIBLE TODAY OVER EASTERN SECTIONS
AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ONCE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...MAY SEE
NW WINDS TO 30 KTS INTO THURSDAY OVER MUCH OF THE LAKE. AS COLDER
AIR FLOWS ACROSS LK SUPERIOR THURSDAY NIGHT...INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE
THERMAL PROFILE WITH 30-40 KT WINDS IN MIXED LAYER SUGGEST A GALE
WATCH MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED. MODELS ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT WITH
STRENGTH OF WINDS SO HAVE HELD OFF ON ANY HEADLINE FOR NOW AND JUST
MENTIONED GALE GUSTS. STRONGER WINDS AND HIGH WAVES WITH A BRIEF SHOT
OF COLDER AIR RESULTS IN POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY OVR CNTRL
AND EASTERN LK SUPERIOR LATER THURSDAY NIGHT. WINDS AND WAVES
DIMINISH LATER FRIDAY WITH ARRIVAL OF HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUT THERE
COULD BE ANOTHER STRONGER PERIOD OF SOUTH- SOUTHWEST WINDS LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. IT IS A SITUATION WITH WARM AIR RIDING
OVR THE COOLER LAKE WATERS...BUT STRONG PRESSURE FALLS NORTH OF THE
LAKE AND TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH BOOST TO SEE
GALES. WINDS DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 25 KTS BY SUNDAY. &&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JLB
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
528 AM EST WED MAR 7 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 523 AM EST WED MAR 7 2012
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A POSITIVE TILT MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH FROM SASK/MANITOBA TOWARD A CLOSED LOW OVER SRN NEVADA
RESULTING IN SW FLOW FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS TO THE WRN GREAT LAKES.
AT THE SFC...A TROUGH/FRONT EXTENDED FROM NW ONTARIO AND NE MN INTO
ERN NEBRASKA. SOME LIGHT SNOW HAD DEVELOPED BEHIND THE FRONT OVER
ERN ND INTO FAR NW MN. OTHERWISE...NO PCPN WAS OBSERVED ALONG OR
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. VERY MILD AIR HAD SPREAD INTO THE REGION AHEAD
OF THE FRONT ON SSW WINDS WITH TEMPS OVERNIGHT CLIMBING INTO THE 40S
ACROSS MUCH OF WEST AND CENTRAL UPPER MI. BNDRY LAYR MIXING HAS
HELPED KEEP DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS HIGH ENOUGH TO LIMIT ANY FOG
DEVELOPMENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 523 AM EST WED MAR 7 2012
MODELS HAVE CONTINUED WITH TREND TOWARD A LATER ARRIVAL OF THE
FRONT...MOVING INTO IWD AFT 18Z AND TO MQT-IMT BY 00Z. MOISTURE CONV
AND 900-700 MB FGEN ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT AND INCREASING COVERAGE OF LIGHT PCPN BAND
THROUGH WRN UPPER MI IN THE AFTERNOON. PCPN MAY ALSO SPREAD INTO THE
ERN PORTION OF THE CWA WITH 290K-295K ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. FCST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT LIQUID PCPN OVER MOST OF THE AREA WITH
POTENTIAL FOR CHANGEOVER TO FROZEN PCPN OVER THE FAR WEST LATE. WITH
A SUBSTANTIAL DRY 750-600 MB LAYER AND FREEZING LEVEL ABOVE THE MOIST
LAYER...LACK OF ICE CRYSTALS WOULD LEAD TO LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF
MAINLY DRIZZLE. THE NAM/GFS SUGGEST THAT A SHORTWAVE AND STRONGER
850-600 MB FGEN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL REMAIN MAINLY TO THE NW OF THE
CWA...STREAKING THROUGH NW LAKE SUPERIOR.
ENOUGH OF A COLD LAYER MAY DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT BY LATE
AFTERNOON WEST AND INTO THE EVENING CENTRAL WITH A SMALL LAYER NEAR
800-750 MB AT OR ABOVE 0C FOR A VERY BRIEF PERIOD OF SOME SLEET.
HOWEVER...ONCE THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND COLD AIR ARRIVE FROM WEST TO
EAST...THE PRECIP TYPE SHOULD CHANGE OVER FROM DZ/PL TO SNOW. WITH
ONLY A BRIEF PERIOD FOR ANY SNOW POSSIBLE...ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD
AMOUNT TO LESS THAN A HALF INCH. LAKE ENHANCED SNOW POTENTIAL OVER
THE WEST WITH NW FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE LIMITED BY THE
MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND QUICK ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR AND LOW INVERSIO
HEIGHTS NEAR 3K FT.
THURSDAY...AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES INTO THE AREA MODERATE TO
STRONG 850-500 MB QVECTOR CONV...DAYTIME HEATING AND STEEP 900-700
MB LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT SCT SHSN DURING THE AFTERNOON. ANY LAKE
EFFECT CONTRIBUTION WILL ONLY BE MARGINAL WITH 850 MB TEMPS ONLY TO
AROUND -11C.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 523 AM EST WED MAR 7 2012
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT UPR TROUGH AND COLDER AIR DIGS FM
NORTHERN CANADA THURSDAY INTO THE EASTERN CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT.
THIS PROVIDES GLANCING BLOW OF FAIRLY CHILLY AIR /H85 TEMPS AS LOW
AS -18C/ ACROSS ONTARIO AND THE UPR GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY NIGHT.
SHORTWAVE/UPR JET IS FCST TO DIG FM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES INTO THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT MAJORITY OF H85-H7/H7-H5
Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL ALREADY BE TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF LK
SUPERIOR EARLY THURSDAY EVENING WITH SUBSIDENCE SPREADING ACROSS
UPR MICHIGAN. EVEN WITH THE SUBSIDENCE...DEEP AND COLD TROUGH LEADS
TO MOIST PROFILE AOA H9 THROUGH H6 AND STEEP LAPSE RATES UP TO 8C/KM
WITHIN THAT MOIST LAYER PER GFS/NAM SOUNDINGS NEAR LK SUPERIOR. SNOW
SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL PROBABLY BE PRETTY CONVECTIVE/SPLOTCHY
IN COVERAGE. BLYR WINDS ARE STEADILY VEERING FM WNW TO NW THROUGH
THE NIGHT WHICH LIMITS LK EFFECT IN ANY ONE PARTICULAR AREA...THOUGH
SEEMS THAT HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN UPR MI AND AREAS EAST OF
MARQUETTE TO NEWBERRY WOULD STAND TO SEE THE MOST SNOW WITH NW WIND
FCST AT H925/H85.
BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH AS THERE IS
CONSENSUS THAT MOISTURE AOA H8 DRIES OUT AND SINCE TEMPS AT
900MB-925MB ARE NOT THAT COOL AT ONLY AROUND -10C. DO SEE SOME
COOLING IN THE H9-H8 LAYER ON FRIDAY AS SECONDARY COLD FRONT SLIDES
ACROSS LK SUPERIOR AND UPR MICHIGAN. FCST SOUNDING AT ERY AT THE END
OF THE FETCH SHOW MOISTENING H95-H8 WITH SOME DRY AIR LINGERING BLO
H95. NOT MUCH SHEAR OR DIRECTIONAL CHANGES IN THE MOIST LAYER SO LK
EFFECT COULD GET BETTER ORGANIZED FOR A TIME IN THE MORNING BEFORE
DAYTIME DRYING AND INCREASING SUBSIDENCE FM ARRIVAL OF SFC RIDGE
LEADS TO DIMINISHING TREND IN THE AFTN. EXPECT ALL LK EFFECT TO
FINISH UP FRIDAY EVENING AS SFC RIDGE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION ARRIVE
IN EARNEST.
IN THE EXTENDED...
WARM AIR ADVECTION ON SATURDAY IS QUITE VIGOROUS AND THERE ARE SOME
PRETTY BEEFY S/SW 1000-850MB WINDS FCST FM GFS/ECMWF IN THE RETURN
FLOW REGIME. IN FACT...H925-H85 WINDS FM BOTH MODELS ARE AOA 45 KTS.
GIVEN THESE LOW-LEVEL WINDS...TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BTWN
RIDGE DEPARTING INTO CNTRL GREAT LAKES AND SHARP NORTH-TO-SOUTH
ORIENTED SFC TROUGH PRESSING ACROSS CNTRL CANADA...AND VERY STRONG
PRESSURE FALLS SETTING UP JUST NORTH OF LK SUPERIOR...SATURDAY COULD
BE A BREEZY DAY EVEN WITH THE HIGHER STABILITY DUE TO THE STRONG
WARM AIR ADVECTION/INVERSION. MODELS SEEM TO BE LATCHING ONTO THIS
MORE WINDY TREND. SHOULD SEE HIGHS ON SATURDAY SIMILAR TO THOSE SEEN
YESTERDAY...MAINLY MID-UPR 40S WITH TEMPS STAYING IN THE UPR 30S TO
AROUND 40 DEGREES DOWNWIND OF COOLER LK MICHIGAN WATERS.
MAIN PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN EXTENDED ARE IN THE SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY TIME FRAME. AGREEMENT FM THE MODELS REMAINS LOW IN HOW FAR
NORTH UPR LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE DESERT SW WILL BE PROPELLED INTO
GREAT LAKES. ADDED UNCERTAINTY IS LATEST MODEL RUNS REMAIN
CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. ECMWF BRINGS UPR LOW INTO UPR
MICHIGAN LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A PERIOD OF RAIN
SHOWERS. GFS KEEPS THE LOW MORE OVR OHIO VALLEY...MISSING CWA WITH
ANY RAINFALL. CANADIAN LOOKS LIKE THE ECMWF BUT IS JUST SLOWER IN
BRINGING THE SYSTEM INTO UPR MICHIGAN. NO REAL TIP OFF TO BUDGE OFF
CONSENSUS AT THIS POINT. SO...HAVE POPS OVER MAINLY SOUTHERN CWA ON
SUNDAY AND MID RANGE CHANCE POPS OVR MOST CWA SUNDAY NIGHT. ONE
TREND THAT IS DEVELOPING IS THE ECMWF SHOWING IT JUST COLD ENOUGH ON
BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM BY MONDAY TO HAVE A CHANCE OF SNOW OVR THE
WESTERN CWA. JUST CANNOT GO THIS WAY AT THIS POINT...GIVEN THE LACK
OF AGREEMENT FM THE MODELS IN THE FIRST PLACE. ESSENTIALLY KEPT WHAT
WE HAD GOING WHICH WAS STAYING WARM WITH CHANCE OF RAIN SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. NO CONFIDENCE AFTER MONDAY AS GFS/ECMWF BECOME COMPLETELY
OUT OF PHASE WITH EACH OTHER. CONSENSUS FCST OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
FOR RAIN SHOWERS WITH TEMPS STAYING WARM WORKS FOR NOW UNTIL MORE
SUBSTANTIAL TRENDS CAN BE BETTER IDENTIFIED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 523 AM EST WED MAR 7 2012
SINCE THE RH OF THE INCOMING AIRMASS REMAINS FAIRLY LO DUE TO THE
ANOMALOUS WARMTH...DELAYED THE ARRIVAL OF LO CLDS/FOG AT ALL 3
SITES. SAW STILL LOOKS TO HAVE THE BEST SHOT AT SEEING AT LEAST AN
MVFR CIG/VSBY BY 12Z WITH MORE OF AN UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT...BUT
DOWNSLOPE NATURE OF S WIND AT IWD/CMX ARGUES AGAINST GOING LOWER
THAN VFR THRU SUNRISE. SINCE THE PRES GRADIENT HAS WEAKENED OVER
CMX...REMOVED LLWS FROM THE TAF FOR THAT LOCATION. STILL EXPECTING
SOME LO CLDS TO ARRIVE AHEAD OF INCOMING COLD FNT BY THIS AFTN WITH
HIER DEWPTS SURGING INTO THE UPR LKS...BUT TRENDED BACK A BIT FM THE
PREVIOUS FCST OF IFR EXCEPT AT SAW GIVEN MORE FAVORABLE UPSLOPE S
WIND. BEST SHOT AT IFR/PERHAPS LIFR WL BE RIGHT BEHIND COLD FROPA AT
CMX WITH UPSLOPE WNW WIND...BUT PCPN INTENSITY LOOKS A BIT LESS
IMPRESSIVE WITH BEST FORCING PROGGED TO PASS TO THE NW. THE ARRIVAL
OF COLDER AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA WL CHANGE THE PCPN TO SHSN...
BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR GIVEN MODERATE CHILL OF THE
INCOMING AIRMASS THAT WL LIMIT LES INTENSITY.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 523 AM EST WED MAR 7 2012
NW WINDS OF 20-30 KTS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AS COLDER AIR FLOWS
ACROSS LK SUPERIOR. INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE THERMAL PROFILE WITH 30-40
KT WINDS IN MIXED LAYER SUGGEST THE EVENTUALLY NEED FOR A GALE
WATCH. MODELS ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT WITH STRENGTH OF WINDS SO HAVE
HELD OFF ON ANY HEADLINE FOR NOW. STRONGER WINDS AND HIGH WAVES WITH
A BRIEF SHOT OF COLDER AIR RESULTS IN POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY OVR CNTRL AND EASTERN LK SUPERIOR LATER THURSDAY NIGHT. WINDS
AND WAVES DIMINISH LATER FRIDAY WITH ARRIVAL OF HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
BUT THERE COULD BE ANOTHER STRONGER PERIOD OF SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. IT IS A SITUATION WITH WARM AIR
RIDING OVR THE COOLER LAKE WATERS...BUT STRONG PRESSURE FALLS NORTH
OF THE LAKE AND TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH BOOST
TO SEE GALES. WINDS DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 25 KTS BY SUNDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JLB
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1208 AM EST WED MAR 7 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 810 PM EST TUE MAR 6 2012
UPDATED TO LOWER MIN TEMPS A BIT OVER THE CENTRAL AND E GIVEN RECENT
TRENDS WITH FAIRLY LGT WINDS/MOCLR SKIES. EXPECT TEMPS TO STEADY OUT
AND THEN RISE A BIT IN THESE AREAS WITH ARRIVAL OF THICKER CLDS/MORE
LLVL MSTR LATER WITH STEADY SSW WIND. ADDED PATCHY FOG EARLIER OVER
THE E GIVEN SHARPER DIURNAL TEMP FALL THERE THIS EVNG.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 405 PM EST TUE MAR 6 2012
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A TROF MOVING INTO THE
ROCKIES WITH A BROAD DOWNSTREAM RIDGE EXPANDING FROM THE CNTRL TO
ERN CONUS. MAIN PORTION OF THIS TROF WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE NRN
CONUS/GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WHILE
ENERGY IN THE SRN PORTION OF THE TROF BREAKS OUT AND CLOSES OFF OVER
THE SW STATES. TROF WILL BRING A PERIOD OF PCPN WED THRU THU.
EVENTUALLY...THE SW LOW WILL EJECT OUT TO THE NE OVER THE
WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHAT AFFECTS THE LOW WILL HAVE OVER THE
UPPER LAKES REMAINS TO BE SEEN.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM EST TUE MAR 6 2012
IN THE SHORT TERM...CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND TEMP TRENDS...FOG
DEVELOPMENT AND THEN PCPN WED ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONT/TROF MOVING
INTO THE UPPER LAKES.
DWPTS ARE RISING INTO THE MID 30S TO LWR 40S AS FAR NE SE MN/SW WI
THIS AFTN WITH TRAJECTORIES BRINGING THAT MOISTURE INTO UPPER MI
DURING THE NIGHT AND WED MORNING. WITH THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION OVER THE SNOW COVER...STRATUS/FOG SHOULD EVENTUALLY
DEVELOP TONIGHT. DENSE FOG MAY DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY OVER UPSLOPE
HIGHER TERRAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO WED. IF THERE WAS SOME ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE FROM RAIN/DRIZZLE...WOULD GO WITH MORE OF A DENSE FOG
WORDING. FOR NOW...GOING FCST OF AN INCREASE IN LOWER CLOUDS AND FOG
DEVELOPMENT...MAINLY LATER TONIGHT...LOOKS ON TRACK. TEMPS SHOULDN`T
FALL MUCH IF AT ALL UNDER MOISTURE ADVECTION AND FAIRLY TIGHT PRES
GRADIENT/STIRRING WINDS. MINS SHOULD BE IN THE MID 30S TO LWR 40S...
WARMEST IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR.
COLD FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK TO MOVE THRU THE AREA LATER WED
AFTN/EVENING AS SFC LOW MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF ONTARIO.
EVEN WITH CLOUDS/FOG (POSSIBLY DENSE) AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WARM
START TO THE DAY SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE WELL INTO THE 40S AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WED. FCST SOUNDINGS FROM NAM/GFS INDICATE RAIN WILL BE
PTYPE. EXCEPTION WILL BE THE FAR W LATE IN THE DAY. SOUNDINGS THERE
INITIALLY SHOW COOLING WORKING IN BLO 850MB...THEN SHOW ALL OF THE
PROFILE NEAR OR BLO 0C LATE AFTN...RESULTING IN CHANGE TO SNOW...
WITH SLEET POSSIBLE AT LEAST BRIEFLY AS WELL. WITH SLOWER COOLING
NOTED BY GEM/UKMET...OPTED TO SLOW CHANGEOVER BY A FEW HRS. NOT
EXPECTING ANY SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATION WED WITH TEMPS WELL INTO THE
30S THRU LATE AFTN OVER THE W. OTHERWISE...WITH ASSISTANCE OF RIGHT
ENTRANCE OF UPPER JET...EXPECT AN AREA OF -RA TO DEVELOP
(LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS)...MOSTLY ALONG/JUST BEHIND COLD FRONT.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM EST TUE MAR 6 2012
COLD FRONT WILL BE STRETCHED FROM NE TO SW ACROSS THE CNTRL/ERN CWA
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH IS STARTING TO
PUSH INTO THE UPPER GREAT LKS. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SE
INTO NRN LOWER MI DURING THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HRS. PCPN DEVELOPING
ALONG THE FRONT TOMORROW AFTN WILL LARGELY BE FOCUSED OVER THE ERN
CWA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. THIS SHOULD BE FALLING AS RAIN...DUE
TO THE ABUNDANT WAA FROM H925-800 LEADING TO TEMPS AT OR ABOVE 3C.
FARTHER W IN CNTRL AND WRN UPPER MI...LLVL COLD AIR SURGING IN
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING IN A COLD LAYER FOR THE PCPN TO FALL
INTO. THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW QUICKLY THAT COLD AIR WILL SURGE IN
BEHIND THE PCPN SHIFTING TO THE SE. MAY NOT BE ENOUGH COLD AIR TO
ALLOW SLEET TO OCCUR...BUT DID MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF IT ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE MAIN PCPN. IN ADDITION...SOME CONCERNS ON ICE
CRYSTAL PRESENCE IN THE CLOUDS ON THE BACK EDGE OF THE PCPN. EVEN AS
TEMPS START TO COOL BEHIND THE FRONT...THEY REALLY DON/T FALL MUCH
BELOW -5C UNTIL THE BULK OF THE PCPN HAS MOVED TO THE EAST. THINKING
IT WILL LARGELY BE A RAIN...THEN A QUICK PERIOD OF SLEET AND EITHER
END OR BE A SLIGHT DZ/FLURRIES.
THINK BEST CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL BE OVER THE W IN THE EVENING...AS
THE COLD AIR ALLOWS FOR LK ENHANCEMENT WITH H900-875 TEMPS FALLING
TO -8C. CLOUD DEPTH SHOULD BE LIMITED WITH THE INVERSION AROUND H850
OR 3KFT. THUS...WILL MAINLY BE FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND
LINGERED CHANCES/SLIGHTS OVER THE NW FAVORED LOCATIONS IN THE W
THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HRS. DRY LLVL AIR WILL THEN QUICKLY WORK
IN OVERNIGHT...SO HAVE DIMINISHED THE LINGERING POPS QUICKLY FROM W
TO E NEAR LK SUPERIOR.
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR CLEARING OVER THE INTERIOR W LATE IN THE
NIGHT...WHICH COULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL BELOW GUIDANCE WITH PWAT
VALUES AROUND 55 PERCENT OF NORMAL. WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING WITH
THE APPROACHING SFC RIDGE...BUT MAY NOT ARRIVE EARLY ENOUGH TO
MAXIMIZE THE RADIATIONAL COOLING. WILL HIGHLIGHT THE COLDEST VALUES
NEAR WATERSMEET WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS.
UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH
THE DAY ON THURS...ALLOWING SFC LOW TO DEVELOP OVER SRN ONTARIO
THURS AFTN AND INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES SE ON THURS NIGHT. DRY AIR
ABOVE H850 BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE PUSHING FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE
AREA THURS MORN AHEAD OF SECONDARY TROUGH BRINGING DEEPER MOISTURE
AND COLDER AIR. THINK THIS WILL LEAD TO A PERIOD OF PARTLY CLOUDY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY OVER MUCH OF THE CWA IN THE MORNING. THEN...AS
THE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA AND BRINGS DEEPER MOISTURE AND
H850-700 Q-VECTOR CONV...HAVE INCREASED CLOUDS AND BRING
SLIGHT/CHANCES OF SNOW BACK IN THE AFTN NEAR LK SUPERIOR.
UPPER TROUGH WILL START TO PUSH E ON THURS NIGHT AND CONTINUE E ON
FRI...AS RIDGING STARTS TO MOVE OVER THE AREA AND SFC HIGH PUSHES
INTO THE WRN GREAT LKS. WITH SECONDARY COLD FRONT DROPPING SE
ACROSS LK SUPERIOR...EXPECT ADDITIONAL LLVL MOISTURE AND FALLING
H850 TEMPS TOWARDS -13C TO LEAD TO INCREASING LAKE
EFFECT/ENHANCEMENT FOR AREAS NEAR LK SUPERIOR. WITH THE STRONG NW
AND THEN NNW WINDS...EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA THURS NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO FRI MORNING. WITH THE COLD
AIR SPILLING IN...EXPECT GUSTY WINDS AS H925 WINDS TO 35KTS OVER THE
NE HALF OF THE CWA TO MIX TO THE SFC AND PRODUCE 25-35KT GUSTS NEAR
LK SUPERIOR E OF MARQUETTE. OVERALL...DON/T EXPECT TOO MUCH SNOW
ACCUM AS THE PERIOD OF FAVORABLE CONDITIONS IT FAIRLY LIMITED ON
THURS NIGHT...BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES AND LOWERING INVERSION
HEADING THROUGH THE DAY ON FRI. IN ADDITION...WITH THE INCREASING
H850 WAA ON FRI AFTN OVER THE WRN LK WILL ALSO AID TO END THE
LINGERING LES FROM W TO E THROUGH THE DAY FRI. ALL IN
ALL...THURS AND FRI LOOK TO BE A PERIOD OF NORMAL TO BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE POTENTIAL WARM-UP FOR
THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
DAYS 4 THROUGH 7 /FRI NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION ON FRI NIGHT WILL
BEGIN TO GET CAUGHT UP WITH THE FLOW AND DRIFT NNE.
MEANWHILE...NEARLY ZONAL FLOW NRN STREAM LOOKS TO BE SETUP OVER SRN
CANADA...KEEPING THE COLD AIR WELL N OF THE UPPER GREAT LKS.
12Z RUNS CONTINUE THE DIFFERENCES WITH THE TRACK OF THE
UPPER LOW. HPC PREFERS A CONSENSUS SOLN NOT INCLUDING THE
GFS...WHICH TRACKS THE LOW MUCH FASTER AND FARTHER SE. 12Z RUN IS
THE SAME AND REMAINS VERY CONSISTENT OVER THE LAST SEVERAL
RUNS...WHICH COULD LEAD SOME CREDIT TO THE THAT SOLN. ENS MEAN ON
ECMWF/GEM IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE DETERMINISTIC RUN...BUT
FOLLOWS A SIMILAR TRACK. OVERALL CONSENSUS PULLS THE UPPER LOW
THROUGH THE GREAT LKS REGION SUN INTO MON. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH SHOULD FALL AS RAIN DUE TO THE
WARM AIR ALREADY IN PLACE.
EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR A BIG WARM UP
BEHIND THE UPPER LOW THAT MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LKS. AMPLIFYING
AND NEARLY STATIONARY TROUGH OFF THE W COAST OF THE CONUS WILL LEAD
TO AMPLIFYING RIDGE OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. THIS WILL ALLOW SFC
HIGH TO BE STATIONED OVER THE ERN CONUS AND WITH THE MAIN LOWS
TRACKING WELL TO THE N THROUGH CANADA...EXPECT SRLY FLOW TO BE SETUP
OVER THE CWA. CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS GIVES VALUES IN THE 40S AND
NEAR 50 ALONG THE WI BORDER FOR HIGHS ON TUES. THIS IS USUALLY UNDER
DONE IN WELL ABOVE NORMAL SITUATIONS AND THE ECMWF /WHICH ALMOST
ALWAYS VERIFIES THE BEST IN THESE ABOVE NORMAL SITUATIONS/ HAS
VALUES ABOUT 7-10 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE CONSENSUS. THE TEMPS LOOK
TO GET EVEN WARMER HEADING INTO WED/THURS. ECMWF HAS TEMPS FOR
WED/THURS OF NEXT WEEK OVER THE W HALF IN THE 60S WITH COOLER TEMPS
NEAR LK MI WITH THE SSW FLOW. ECMWF EVEN ATTEMPTS TO TRY AN PUSH A
FEW 70S ALONG THE WI BORDER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1208 AM EST WED MAR 7 2012
SINCE THE RH OF THE INCOMING AIRMASS REMAINS FAIRLY LO DUE TO THE
ANOMALOUS WARMTH...DELAYED THE ARRIVAL OF LO CLDS/FOG AT ALL 3
SITES. SAW STILL LOOKS TO HAVE THE BEST SHOT AT SEEING AT LEAST AN
MVFR CIG/VSBY BY 12Z WITH MORE OF AN UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT...BUT
DOWNSLOPE NATURE OF S WIND AT IWD/CMX ARGUES AGAINST GOING LOWER
THAN VFR THRU SUNRISE. SINCE THE PRES GRADIENT HAS WEAKENED OVER
CMX...REMOVED LLWS FROM THE TAF FOR THAT LOCATION. STILL EXPECTING
SOME LO CLDS TO ARRIVE AHEAD OF INCOMING COLD FNT BY THIS AFTN WITH
HIER DEWPTS SURGING INTO THE UPR LKS...BUT TRENDED BACK A BIT FM THE
PREVIOUS FCST OF IFR EXCEPT AT SAW GIVEN MORE FAVORABLE UPSLOPE S
WIND. BEST SHOT AT IFR/PERHAPS LIFR WL BE RIGHT BEHIND COLD FROPA AT
CMX WITH UPSLOPE WNW WIND...BUT PCPN INTENSITY LOOKS A BIT LESS
IMPRESSIVE WITH BEST FORCING PROGGED TO PASS TO THE NW. THE ARRIVAL
OF COLDER AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA WL CHANGE THE PCPN TO SHSN...
BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR GIVEN MODERATE CHILL OF THE
INCOMING AIRMASS THAT WL LIMIT LES INTENSITY.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 405 PM EST TUE MAR 6 2012
SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 20-30KT OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR (LIGHTER OVER THE
W) AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TONIGHT.
WINDS SHOULD MOSTLY DROP OFF BLO 20KT FOR MUCH OF WED AS THE COLD
FRONT ARRIVES. WITH THE PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT...NW WINDS WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE WED EVENING AND THEN THRU THU AS A FOLLOWING LOW PRES
CENTER PASSES SE ACROSS NRN ONTARIO. UNDER CAA/INCREASING OVERWATER
INSTABILITY...NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-30KT...ESPECIALLY THU/THU
NIGHT. GALES ARE A POSSIBILITY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO UNDER 20KT BY
LATE FRIDAY AFTN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH...SW WINDS WILL RAMP BACK UP TO 20-30KT SAT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 405 PM EST TUE MAR 6 2012
EVEN WITH THE WARM TEMPS OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...DON/T EXPECT
MUCH IF ANY MELTING TO OCCUR DUE TO THE UN-RIPE CONDITIONS OF THE
SNOW PACK. LOOKING AT NOHRSC CURRENT AND FUTURE SNOWPACK
TEMPERATURES...ONLY THE TOP AND MIDDLE LAYERS /TOP 2-10 INCHES
DEPENDING ON LOCATION/ OF THE SNOWPACK BECOME RIPE OVER THE SW HALF
OF THE CWA BY WED EVENING. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME
COMPACTION/MELTING OF THE TOP OF THE EXISTING SNOWPACK...BUT IT
SHOULD STILL RETAIN THE WATER AND KEEP MUCH OR ALL OF THE MOISTURE
IN THE SNOWPACK THROUGH WED EVENING.
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON
WED...DON/T EXPECT ANY MELTING TO OCCUR WED NIGHT INTO SAT. WITH THE
WARMING TREND EXPECTED DURING THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK...WILL
NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON A SLOWLY RIPENING SNOWPACK. THE POTENTIAL FOR
RAIN ON SUN/MON MAY ASSIST IN THIS RIPENING THROUGH THE FIRST PART
OF NEXT WEEK.
THE POTENTIAL FOR MELTING OF THE SNOWPACK COULD GREATLY INCREASE
HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AS OVERNIGHT LOWS AND TD
VALUES RISE ABOVE FREEZING. THE EXTENDED MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES /10 PLUS DEGREES/ FOR THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. IF THE WARM TEMPS SHOWN ON THE ECMWF /HIGHS IN THE 60S
FOR WED AND THURS/ COME TO FRUITION...THE MELT MAY BE FAIRLY FAST
AND RUN OFF DIRECTLY INTO AREA RIVERS. THUS...WILL NEED TO KEEP AN
EYE ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS NEXT WEEK FOR THE POTENTIAL OF RISING
LEVELS DUE TO SNOWMELT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KC
SYNOPSIS...ROLFSON
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1251 PM CST WED MAR 7 2012
.UPDATE...SENT A MINOR UPDATE TO AFTERNOON FORECAST TO TWEAK
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AS PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER HAS HELPED TO
KEEP TEMPS DOWN SO FAR TODAY. EVEN SO...EXPECT A FEW BREAKS IN
CLOUD COVER AS WE TRANSITION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AS
EVIDENT UPSTREAM IN SATELLITE IMAGERY...WITH AN ADDITIONAL FEW
DEGREES OF WARMING FROM CURRENT LEVELS BY LATE AFTERNOON. ALSO
WENT AHEAD AND REMOVED ANY MENTION OF PRECIP FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON...AS WELL AS TWEAKED BACK CHANCES FOR TONIGHT
AS NEW MODEL DATA COMING IN IS NOT VERY BULLISH ON ANY PRECIP
DEVELOPING ACROSS OUR AREA OVERNIGHT...WITH A VERY TIGHT
PRECIPITATION GRADIENT EXPECTED NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST TO
OUR SOUTHEAST. NO OTHER CHANGES NECESSARY AT THIS TIME.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1217 PM CST WED MAR 7 2012/
AVIATION...18Z KGRI TAF...MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR
A FEW MORE HOURS AT KGRI...WITH CEILINGS SLOWLY IMPROVING THROUGH
THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...AS THIS MORNINGS COLD FRONT CONTINUES
TO PUSH FURTHER SOUTHEAST. IN ADDITION...STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO RELAX AND BECOME LESS GUSTY AFTER AROUND
08/02Z AS SUN SETS AND PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS...WITH
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THEREAFTER.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 424 AM CST WED MAR 7 2012/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
MOVING ONTO THE WEST COAST WHILE THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED
STATES REMAINS UNDER A WEAK AMPLITUDE RIDGE IN MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW.
AT 500 MB...THE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS SITUATED ALONG THE EAST COAST
WITH A TROUGH AXIS ALONG THE WEST COAST. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE EAST COAST WHILE LOW PRESSURE HAS
DEVELOPED ACROSS THE NEVADA/ARIZONA STATE LINE. LOOKING AT WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY...THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS KICKED UP QUITE A
MOISTURE/CLOUD FIELD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND WESTERN CENTRAL
PLAINS.
MODELS STILL INDICATE A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS NEVADA HELPING
PUSH A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE PLAINS. THE FRONT IS STILL
PEGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING. LATEST MOSAIC RADAR
IMAGERY AND METARS SHOW THE FRONT HAS MADE IT TO NORTHWEST PORTION
OF THE CWA BY 10Z. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WERE ALREADY NEAR 25 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS.
MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE TRENDING TOWARDS INCREASED WIND SPEEDS BEHIND
THE FRONT. THE NAM SOLUTION SHOWS 3 HOUR HEIGHT RISES TO NEAR 9MB AT
12Z AND THE HRRR MODELS ALSO SUGGESTS HIGHER WIND SPEEDS ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST WITH WIND GUSTS NEAR 35 KTS. DECIDED TO INCREASE WINDS ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER...WHILE WINDS WILL BE BREEZY
DURING THE MORNING HOURS...EXPECT ANY WINDS THAT REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA
TO BE SHORT LIVED.
REGARDING POPS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...BOTH THE GFS AND THE EC
KEEP SLIGHT POPS ACROSS THE EAST WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE
DAY. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BOTH MODELS PUSH THE SURFACE LOW FARTHER
SOUTH...THUS MOVING POPS FARTHER SOUTH. HOWEVER...THE 0Z WRF TRIES
TO FIRE OFF SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE KANSAS COUNTIES ROUGHLY 3Z TO 7Z
ALONG THE ELEVATED FRONT. FOR NOW..DECIDED TO GO WITH SLIGHT TO
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN KANSAS COUNTIES. AS FOR PRECIP
TYPE...MODEL SOUNDINGS IN THIS AREA STILL SHOW A GOOD DRY LAYER AT
THE SURFACE SUGGESTING POSSIBLE DRIZZLE IF ANYTHING AT ALL. WHILE
FREEZING DRIZZLE MIGHT BE POSSIBLE...SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH 7Z.
THE TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST BY THURSDAY WITH THE CLOSED
LOW REMAINING OVER THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD. RIDGING BEGINS
TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE WEST...AND REMAINS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S
WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. POPS REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
CWA BEGINNING 12Z THURSDAY.
LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
WE WILL KICK OFF THE LONG TERM WITH RATHER DISPARATE SOLUTIONS
BETWEEN MODELS. MODELS ARE GENERALLY INDICATING THAT AT 12Z
SATURDAY...A CLOSED LOW WILL BE LOCATED SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS...EXCEPT FOR THE CANADIAN
MODEL...WHICH PREDICTS A CLOSED LOW IN NORTHWESTERN MEXICO...NOT FAR
FROM WHERE THE GFS40 ADVERTISES A SECOND CLOSED LOW...WITH ITS
NORTHERN PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED CLOSED LOW BEING THE EASTERN OUTLIER
IN SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS ALONG WITH DGEX. THIS EASTERN TENDENCY HAS
HELD TRUE TO THE GFS FOR SOME TIME...ALTHOUGH SOLUTIONS ARE NOT
QUITE SO DISPARATE WITH THIS CLOSED LOW AS IT TRACKS
NORTHEAST...WHICH IS A PROMISING SIGN WHEN CONSIDERING THE LARGE
DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE LONG RANGE SOLUTIONS IN THE RECENT PAST.
CONSOLIDATING THE PROJECTED MODEL SOLUTIONS IS PREFERABLE OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH THE AXIS OF THE LOW/TROUGH EXITING BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SEASONABLE FOR THE WEEKEND AND ABOVE NORMAL
INTO THE NEXT WORK WEEK WITHIN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE SECONDARY
CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO SHOULD HEAD EAST INTO TEXAS
AND BE TOO FAR SOUTH TO AFFECT US. AN AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
SPREAD NORTH IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING LOW/TROUGH AND
CONTINUED WITH VERY LOW CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION GENERALLY
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. AGAIN...AFTER THE TROUGH PASSES...DRY AND
WARM WEATHER WILL PREVAIL FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION/UPDATE...ROSSI
SHORT TERM...BDS
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1217 PM CST WED MAR 7 2012
.AVIATION...18Z KGRI TAF...MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR
A FEW MORE HOURS AT KGRI...WITH CEILINGS SLOWLY IMPROVING THROUGH
THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...AS THIS MORNINGS COLD FRONT CONTINUES
TO PUSH FURTHER SOUTHEAST. IN ADDITION...STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO RELAX AND BECOME LESS GUSTY AFTER AROUND
08/02Z AS SUN SETS AND PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS...WITH
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THEREAFTER.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 424 AM CST WED MAR 7 2012/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
MOVING ONTO THE WEST COAST WHILE THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED
STATES REMAINS UNDER A WEAK AMPLITUDE RIDGE IN MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW.
AT 500 MB...THE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS SITUATED ALONG THE EAST COAST
WITH A TROUGH AXIS ALONG THE WEST COAST. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE EAST COAST WHILE LOW PRESSURE HAS
DEVELOPED ACROSS THE NEVADA/ARIZONA STATE LINE. LOOKING AT WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY...THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS KICKED UP QUITE A
MOISTURE/CLOUD FIELD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND WESTERN CENTRAL
PLAINS.
MODELS STILL INDICATE A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS NEVADA HELPING
PUSH A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE PLAINS. THE FRONT IS STILL
PEGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING. LATEST MOSAIC RADAR
IMAGERY AND METARS SHOW THE FRONT HAS MADE IT TO NORTHWEST PORTION
OF THE CWA BY 10Z. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WERE ALREADY NEAR 25 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS.
MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE TRENDING TOWARDS INCREASED WIND SPEEDS BEHIND
THE FRONT. THE NAM SOLUTION SHOWS 3 HOUR HEIGHT RISES TO NEAR 9MB AT
12Z AND THE HRRR MODELS ALSO SUGGESTS HIGHER WIND SPEEDS ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST WITH WIND GUSTS NEAR 35 KTS. DECIDED TO INCREASE WINDS ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER...WHILE WINDS WILL BE BREEZY
DURING THE MORNING HOURS...EXPECT ANY WINDS THAT REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA
TO BE SHORT LIVED.
REGARDING POPS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...BOTH THE GFS AND THE EC
KEEP SLIGHT POPS ACROSS THE EAST WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE
DAY. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BOTH MODELS PUSH THE SURFACE LOW FARTHER
SOUTH...THUS MOVING POPS FARTHER SOUTH. HOWEVER...THE 0Z WRF TRIES
TO FIRE OFF SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE KANSAS COUNTIES ROUGHLY 3Z TO 7Z
ALONG THE ELEVATED FRONT. FOR NOW..DECIDED TO GO WITH SLIGHT TO
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN KANSAS COUNTIES. AS FOR PRECIP
TYPE...MODEL SOUNDINGS IN THIS AREA STILL SHOW A GOOD DRY LAYER AT
THE SURFACE SUGGESTING POSSIBLE DRIZZLE IF ANYTHING AT ALL. WHILE
FREEZING DRIZZLE MIGHT BE POSSIBLE...SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH 7Z.
THE TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST BY THURSDAY WITH THE CLOSED
LOW REMAINING OVER THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD. RIDGING BEGINS
TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE WEST...AND REMAINS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S
WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. POPS REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
CWA BEGINNING 12Z THURSDAY.
LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
WE WILL KICK OFF THE LONG TERM WITH RATHER DISPARATE SOLUTIONS
BETWEEN MODELS. MODELS ARE GENERALLY INDICATING THAT AT 12Z
SATURDAY...A CLOSED LOW WILL BE LOCATED SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS...EXCEPT FOR THE CANADIAN
MODEL...WHICH PREDICTS A CLOSED LOW IN NORTHWESTERN MEXICO...NOT FAR
FROM WHERE THE GFS40 ADVERTISES A SECOND CLOSED LOW...WITH ITS
NORTHERN PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED CLOSED LOW BEING THE EASTERN OUTLIER
IN SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS ALONG WITH DGEX. THIS EASTERN TENDENCY HAS
HELD TRUE TO THE GFS FOR SOME TIME...ALTHOUGH SOLUTIONS ARE NOT
QUITE SO DISPARATE WITH THIS CLOSED LOW AS IT TRACKS
NORTHEAST...WHICH IS A PROMISING SIGN WHEN CONSIDERING THE LARGE
DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE LONG RANGE SOLUTIONS IN THE RECENT PAST.
CONSOLIDATING THE PROJECTED MODEL SOLUTIONS IS PREFERABLE OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH THE AXIS OF THE LOW/TROUGH EXITING BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SEASONABLE FOR THE WEEKEND AND ABOVE NORMAL
INTO THE NEXT WORK WEEK WITHIN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE SECONDARY
CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO SHOULD HEAD EAST INTO TEXAS
AND BE TOO FAR SOUTH TO AFFECT US. AN AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
SPREAD NORTH IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING LOW/TROUGH AND
CONTINUED WITH VERY LOW CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION GENERALLY
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. AGAIN...AFTER THE TROUGH PASSES...DRY AND
WARM WEATHER WILL PREVAIL FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BDS
LONG TERM...HEINLEING
AVIATION...ROSSI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
549 AM CST WED MAR 7 2012
.AVIATION...12Z KGRI TAF. WIND SPEEDS ARE A CONCERN BEHIND THE
DEPARTING COLD FRONT PUSHING TO THE SOUTHEAST. IMPRESSIVE HEIGHT
RISES ARE CREATING SOME GOOD WIND GUSTS THIS MORNING WITH A DECK
OF STRATUS SOON TO FOLLOW THIS MORNING. WIND SHOULD CONTINUE TO
BE GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT AS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES PROMOTE
EFFICIENT MOMENTUM TRANSFER. KEPT CEILINGS FROM DIPPING DOWN TO
IFR...AND KEPT THEM AT MVFR CONSIDERING MOST OBSERVATIONS
UPSTREAM. WIND SHOULD SUBSIDE THIS EVENING WITH RELAXING PRESSURE
GRADIENTS AND REDUCED MIXING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 424 AM CST WED MAR 7 2012/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
MOVING ONTO THE WEST COAST WHILE THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED
STATES REMAINS UNDER A WEAK AMPLITUDE RIDGE IN MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW.
AT 500 MB...THE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS SITUATED ALONG THE EAST COAST
WITH A TROUGH AXIS ALONG THE WEST COAST. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE EAST COAST WHILE LOW PRESSURE HAS
DEVELOPED ACROSS THE NEVADA/ARIZONA STATE LINE. LOOKING AT WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY...THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS KICKED UP QUITE A
MOISTURE/CLOUD FIELD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND WESTERN CENTRAL
PLAINS.
MODELS STILL INDICATE A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS NEVADA HELPING
PUSH A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE PLAINS. THE FRONT IS STILL
PEGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING. LATEST MOSAIC RADAR
IMAGERY AND METARS SHOW THE FRONT HAS MADE IT TO NORTHWEST PORTION
OF THE CWA BY 10Z. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WERE ALREADY NEAR 25 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS.
MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE TRENDING TOWARDS INCREASED WIND SPEEDS BEHIND
THE FRONT. THE NAM SOLUTION SHOWS 3 HOUR HEIGHT RISES TO NEAR 9MB AT
12Z AND THE HRRR MODELS ALSO SUGGESTS HIGHER WIND SPEEDS ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST WITH WIND GUSTS NEAR 35 KTS. DECIDED TO INCREASE WINDS ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER...WHILE WINDS WILL BE BREEZY
DURING THE MORNING HOURS...EXPECT ANY WINDS THAT REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA
TO BE SHORT LIVED.
REGARDING POPS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...BOTH THE GFS AND THE EC
KEEP SLIGHT POPS ACROSS THE EAST WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE
DAY. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BOTH MODELS PUSH THE SURFACE LOW FARTHER
SOUTH...THUS MOVING POPS FARTHER SOUTH. HOWEVER...THE 0Z WRF TRIES
TO FIRE OFF SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE KANSAS COUNTIES ROUGHLY 3Z TO 7Z
ALONG THE ELEVATED FRONT. FOR NOW..DECIDED TO GO WITH SLIGHT TO
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN KANSAS COUNTIES. AS FOR PRECIP
TYPE...MODEL SOUNDINGS IN THIS AREA STILL SHOW A GOOD DRY LAYER AT
THE SURFACE SUGGESTING POSSIBLE DRIZZLE IF ANYTHING AT ALL. WHILE
FREEZING DRIZZLE MIGHT BE POSSIBLE...SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH 7Z.
THE TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST BY THURSDAY WITH THE CLOSED
LOW REMAINING OVER THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD. RIDGING BEGINS
TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE WEST...AND REMAINS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S
WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. POPS REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
CWA BEGINNING 12Z THURSDAY.
LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
WE WILL KICK OFF THE LONG TERM WITH RATHER DISPARATE SOLUTIONS
BETWEEN MODELS. MODELS ARE GENERALLY INDICATING THAT AT 12Z
SATURDAY...A CLOSED LOW WILL BE LOCATED SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS...EXCEPT FOR THE CANADIAN
MODEL...WHICH PREDICTS A CLOSED LOW IN NORTHWESTERN MEXICO...NOT FAR
FROM WHERE THE GFS40 ADVERTISES A SECOND CLOSED LOW...WITH ITS
NORTHERN PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED CLOSED LOW BEING THE EASTERN OUTLIER
IN SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS ALONG WITH DGEX. THIS EASTERN TENDENCY HAS
HELD TRUE TO THE GFS FOR SOME TIME...ALTHOUGH SOLUTIONS ARE NOT
QUITE SO DISPARATE WITH THIS CLOSED LOW AS IT TRACKS
NORTHEAST...WHICH IS A PROMISING SIGN WHEN CONSIDERING THE LARGE
DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE LONG RANGE SOLUTIONS IN THE RECENT PAST.
CONSOLIDATING THE PROJECTED MODEL SOLUTIONS IS PREFERABLE OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH THE AXIS OF THE LOW/TROUGH EXITING BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SEASONABLE FOR THE WEEKEND AND ABOVE NORMAL
INTO THE NEXT WORK WEEK WITHIN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE SECONDARY
CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO SHOULD HEAD EAST INTO TEXAS
AND BE TOO FAR SOUTH TO AFFECT US. AN AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
SPREAD NORTH IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING LOW/TROUGH AND
CONTINUED WITH VERY LOW CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION GENERALLY
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. AGAIN...AFTER THE TROUGH PASSES...DRY AND
WARM WEATHER WILL PREVAIL FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 117 AM CST WED MAR 7 2012/
AVIATION...06Z KGRI TAF. WIND SPEEDS AND DIRECTION ARE A CONCERN
WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST. SHORTLY AFTER
THE COLD FRONT PASSES EARLY THIS MORNING...WIND DIRECTION SHOULD
SHIFT TO THE NORTH WITH NOTICEABLE GUSTS...CONSIDERING THE
IMPRESSIVE HEIGHT RISES. A DECK OF STRATUS SHOULD SOON FOLLOW WITHIN A
COUPLE OF HOURS OF FRONT PASSAGE. JUDGING BY THE LATEST
INTERPOLATION TOOLS...I MAY BE TOO SLOW WITH FRONT PASSAGE...SO
MAY NEED TO UPDATE SO THAT THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE WILL BE CLOSER
TO 10Z TO 11Z. WIND SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE GUST BEHIND THE FRONT AS
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES PROMOTE EFFICIENT MOMENTUM TRANSFER. KEPT
CEILINGS FROM DIPPING DOWN TO IFR...AND KEPT THEM AT MVFR
CONSIDERING MOST OBSERVATIONS UPSTREAM.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHOR TERM...BDS
LONG TERM/AVIATION...HEINLEIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
424 AM CST WED MAR 7 2012
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
MOVING ONTO THE WEST COAST WHILE THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED
STATES REMAINS UNDER A WEAK AMPLITUDE RIDGE IN MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW.
AT 500 MB...THE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS SITUATED ALONG THE EAST COAST
WITH A TROUGH AXIS ALONG THE WEST COAST. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE EAST COAST WHILE LOW PRESSURE HAS
DEVELOPED ACROSS THE NEVADA/ARIZONA STATE LINE. LOOKING AT WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY...THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS KICKED UP QUITE A
MOISTURE/CLOUD FIELD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND WESTERN CENTRAL
PLAINS.
MODELS STILL INDICATE A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS NEVADA HELPING
PUSH A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE PLAINS. THE FRONT IS STILL
PEGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING. LATEST MOSAIC RADAR
IMAGERY AND METARS SHOW THE FRONT HAS MADE IT TO NORTHWEST PORTION
OF THE CWA BY 10Z. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WERE ALREADY NEAR 25 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS.
MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE TRENDING TOWARDS INCREASED WIND SPEEDS BEHIND
THE FRONT. THE NAM SOLUTION SHOWS 3 HOUR HEIGHT RISES TO NEAR 9MB AT
12Z AND THE HRRR MODELS ALSO SUGGESTS HIGHER WIND SPEEDS ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST WITH WIND GUSTS NEAR 35 KTS. DECIDED TO INCREASE WINDS ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER...WHILE WINDS WILL BE BREEZY
DURING THE MORNING HOURS...EXPECT ANY WINDS THAT REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA
TO BE SHORT LIVED.
REGARDING POPS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...BOTH THE GFS AND THE EC
KEEP SLIGHT POPS ACROSS THE EAST WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE
DAY. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BOTH MODELS PUSH THE SURFACE LOW FARTHER
SOUTH...THUS MOVING POPS FARTHER SOUTH. HOWEVER...THE 0Z WRF TRIES
TO FIRE OFF SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE KANSAS COUNTIES ROUGHLY 3Z TO 7Z
ALONG THE ELEVATED FRONT. FOR NOW..DECIDED TO GO WITH SLIGHT TO
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN KANSAS COUNTIES. AS FOR PRECIP
TYPE...MODEL SOUNDINGS IN THIS AREA STILL SHOW A GOOD DRY LAYER AT
THE SURFACE SUGGESTING POSSIBLE DRIZZLE IF ANYTHING AT ALL. WHILE
FREEZING DRIZZLE MIGHT BE POSSIBLE...SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH 7Z.
THE TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST BY THURSDAY WITH THE CLOSED
LOW REMAINING OVER THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD. RIDGING BEGINS
TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE WEST...AND REMAINS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S
WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. POPS REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
CWA BEGINNING 12Z THURSDAY.
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
WE WILL KICK OFF THE LONG TERM WITH RATHER DISPARATE SOLUTIONS
BETWEEN MODELS. MODELS ARE GENERALLY INDICATING THAT AT 12Z
SATURDAY...A CLOSED LOW WILL BE LOCATED SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS...EXCEPT FOR THE CANADIAN
MODEL...WHICH PREDICTS A CLOSED LOW IN NORTHWESTERN MEXICO...NOT FAR
FROM WHERE THE GFS40 ADVERTISES A SECOND CLOSED LOW...WITH ITS
NORTHERN PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED CLOSED LOW BEING THE EASTERN OUTLIER
IN SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS ALONG WITH DGEX. THIS EASTERN TENDENCY HAS
HELD TRUE TO THE GFS FOR SOME TIME...ALTHOUGH SOLUTIONS ARE NOT
QUITE SO DISPARATE WITH THIS CLOSED LOW AS IT TRACKS
NORTHEAST...WHICH IS A PROMISING SIGN WHEN CONSIDERING THE LARGE
DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE LONG RANGE SOLUTIONS IN THE RECENT PAST.
CONSOLIDATING THE PROJECTED MODEL SOLUTIONS IS PREFERABLE OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH THE AXIS OF THE LOW/TROUGH EXITING BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SEASONABLE FOR THE WEEKEND AND ABOVE NORMAL
INTO THE NEXT WORK WEEK WITHIN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE SECONDARY
CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO SHOULD HEAD EAST INTO TEXAS
AND BE TOO FAR SOUTH TO AFFECT US. AN AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
SPREAD NORTH IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING LOW/TROUGH AND
CONTINUED WITH VERY LOW CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION GENERALLY
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. AGAIN...AFTER THE TROUGH PASSES...DRY AND
WARM WEATHER WILL PREVAIL FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 117 AM CST WED MAR 7 2012/
AVIATION...06Z KGRI TAF. WIND SPEEDS AND DIRECTION ARE A CONCERN
WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST. SHORTLY AFTER
THE COLD FRONT PASSES EARLY THIS MORNING...WIND DIRECTION SHOULD
SHIFT TO THE NORTH WITH NOTICEABLE GUSTS...CONSIDERING THE
IMPRESSIVE HEIGHT RISES. A DECK OF STRATUS SHOULD SOON FOLLOW WITHIN A
COUPLE OF HOURS OF FRONT PASSAGE. JUDGING BY THE LATEST
INTERPOLATION TOOLS...I MAY BE TOO SLOW WITH FRONT PASSAGE...SO
MAY NEED TO UPDATE SO THAT THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE WILL BE CLOSER
TO 10Z TO 11Z. WIND SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE GUST BEHIND THE FRONT AS
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES PROMOTE EFFICIENT MOMENTUM TRANSFER. KEPT
CEILINGS FROM DIPPING DOWN TO IFR...AND KEPT THEM AT MVFR
CONSIDERING MOST OBSERVATIONS UPSTREAM.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SALTZMAN
LONG TERM/AVIATION...HEINLEIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
720 PM EST THU MAR 8 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT PUSHING EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND
LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BRING RAIN TO THE AREA
THROUGH MIDNIGHT. A SHARP COOL-DOWN IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT
FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. THE MILD
PATTERN RESUMES BY SUNDAY AND CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING WELL ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT 23Z THE HRRR MESO MODEL SHOWED A REMARKABLE RENDITION OF WHERE
THE NARROW COLD FRONTAL RAIN BAND IS AS THE FRONT ENTERS THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. WIND JUST SHIFTED AT BFD AND GUSTED TO 27KT.
NOT TERRIBLY STRONG BUT IT IS A WELL DEFINED FEATURE AND MARKS THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE MUCH COOLER AIRMASS POISED TO FLOOD INTO THE
REGION.
MODELS SHOW THE ORGANIZED FRONTAL RAINS ADVANCING SEWD INTO THE
CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION THIS EVENING...AS PROGRESSIVE NRN
STREAM CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES. VERY STG H85 MSTR FLUX VALUES ARE
PROGGED ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FNT AS 50KT SWLY LLJ TRANSPORTS 1 INCH
PWATS NEWD ALONG THE BNDRY. DESPITE THE HIGH INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL
MSTR...THE LACK OF INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP PCPN AMTS GENERALLY
BTWN 0.25 AND 0.50 INCH OVR THE CNTRL MTNS. LIGHTER AMTS ARE XPCD
INTO THE LWR SUSQ VLY WITH THE OPTIMAL PCPN WINDOW OCCURRING
ROUGHLY IN THE 00-06Z TIMEFRAME. PCPN ASSOC WITH THE CLD FNT
SHOULD EXIT THE SERN ZONES BTWN 06-09Z.
COLDER AIR WILL BE DIRECTED INTO THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST
BEHIND THE FRONT LATER TONIGHT. PCPN MAY END AS A PERIOD OF RA/SN
SHOWERS OVR THE NW MTNS WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUM. TEMPS WILL FALL
INTO FRI MORNING WITH LOWS ABOUT 30 DEGREES COLDER THAN TODAY`S
HIGHS. IT WILL FEEL NOTICEABLY COLDER WITH SHARP DROP IN
TEMPERATURE WITH AN ADDITIONAL CHILL PROVIDED BY GUSTY WEST-
NORTHWEST WINDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL ACCOMPANY THE H5 TROF AXIS AND
SECONDARY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION THIS PERIOD. THE ANOMALOUS
AIR AT H85 CROSSING THE WARM LAKE WATERS SHOULD CREATE PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY AND SUPPORT LAKE SNOWS OVR THE NW MTNS. COULD SEE LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES PERHAPS AS FAR SOUTH AS I-80. ACCUMS MAY
BE HARD TO COME BY GIVEN TIME OF DAY...BUT COULD SEE AN INCH OR
TWO OVR THE SNOWBELT BY SAT MORNING. MODELS ALL SHOW A WEAK SFC
LOW DIGGING SEWD FM THE UPPER GRT LKS INTO WRN NY...WITH A
CHANNELED AND BLUSTERY/COLD WNW FLOW FOCUSED OVR LAKE ERIE INTO
THE NW PLATEAU THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF FRI NGT. WINDS SHOULD
SUBSIDE INTO SAT MORNING AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
INCREASED WINDS AND WIND GUSTS FOR THIS PD AND MAY LOWER MAX TEMPS
AS THIS COMPACT BUT POTENT FEATURE REMINDS US THAT -- AFTER A
RECENT STRETCH OF VERY MILD SPRING-LIKE WEATHER -- WINTER IS NOT
OVER.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE STATE SATURDAY...
BRINGING PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BUT STILL CHILLY AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE MID 30S OVER THE NORTH...AND LOWER TO MID 40S
THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEYS /WHICH WILL BE ABOUT
3-4F BELOW NORMAL/. UNDER LINGERING DEEP NW FLOW...THE INITIALLY
CHILLY 850 MB TEMPS OF -10 TO -14C IN THE MORNING WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE STEADILY DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT
LIKELY TOO LATE TO HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE MAX TEMPS.
SOME PATCHY MID AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS MAY DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE FLOW ALOFT BACKS TO A MORE WESTERLY
DIRECTION. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT ALONG THE
MID ATLANTIC PIEDMONT WILL BRING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WIND...
AND NEAR NORMAL MIN TEMPS IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30 DEGREES.
DEEPENING WEST TO SWRLY FLOW AT THE SFC AND ALOFT OVER PENN /AND A
STRENGTHENING 35 TO 45 KT SOUTHERLY FLOW AT 850 MB ACROSS THE MISS
AND LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY/ WILL HELP TO RAPIDLY TRANSPORT MUCH
HIGHER THETA-E AIR NWD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY...AND BOOST
500 MB HEIGHTS BY NEARLY 50 DAM DURING THE DAY.
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...850 MB TEMPS INCREASING TO PLUS 6-8C /AND THE
WARMING LLVL DOWNSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EAST/ WILL YIELD
AFTERNOON HIGHS SURGING BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. THESE
HIGHS COULD BE AT LEAST A FEW DEG F TOO COOL ACROSS THE CENTRAL
VALLEYS AND SUSQ VALLEY...SHOULD MIXING DEEPEN ENOUGH TO TAP THE
WARMER AIR ALOFT.
THE PLUME OF GULF MOISTURE STREAMING NE AHEAD OF A SHEARING SHORT
WAVE/WEAK SFC LOW LIFTING QUICKLY NE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE
GLAKES REGION...WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS /VERY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT ACRS THE WESTERN MTNS...AND MAINLY
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT ELSEWHERE/.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE QUITE LIGHT WITH BASIN AVERAGE AMOUNTS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.25 OF AN INCH. 12 GEFS PROBABILITY FOR GREATER
THAN 0.3/12 HOURS IS 30-40 PERCENT AT BEST...AND CONFINED TO A SMALL
PORTION OF SCENT PENN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK...UPPER HEIGHTS AND 850
MB TEMPS STAY ANOMALOUSLY WARM /7-10C OR PLUS 1-2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS/...RESULTING IN AFTERNOON MAXS WELL ABOVE NORMAL...
RANGING FORM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE MTNS...AND THE
MID TO UPPER 60S IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEYS.
A FEW WEAK...FAST MOVING SHORT WAVES ALOFT FOLLOWED BY A NRN STREAM
COOL FRONT COULD BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...BUT LIKELY 98 PERCENT OR MORE OF THAT TIME WILL BE RAIN
FREE AS MOST OF THE FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS WILL STAY WELL TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A NARROW COLD FRONTAL RAIN BAND SWEEPS THROUGH CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA CURRENTLY AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD. THIS
BAND WILL BRING MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND VSBYS...THOUGH THESE
CONDITIONS WILL BE BRIEF DUE TO THE SMALL WIDTH OF THE BAND. EXPECT
A SHARP WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST- NORTHWEST BEHIND THIS BAND WITH
GUSTS TAPERING OFF BETWEEN 09-12Z. SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE THE GUSTS
WILL FILTER BACK DOWN AS ADDITIONAL ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL SEND A SECONDARY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION TOMORROW AFTERNOON. UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR ALOFT WILL SPILL SEWD
OVER THE WARMER LAKES. EXPECT A BLUSTERY POST- FRONTAL SYNOPTIC
REGIME WITH SNOW SHOWERS INVOF BFD AND BKN- OVC MVFR TO VFR
STRATOCU IMPACTING THE CENTRAL TAF SITES THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
AVIATION...CERU/STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
707 PM EST THU MAR 8 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT PUSHING EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND
LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BRING RAIN TO THE AREA
THROUGH MIDNIGHT. A SHARP COOL-DOWN IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT
FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. THE MILD
PATTERN RESUMES BY SUNDAY AND CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING WELL ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT 23Z THE HRRR MESO MODEL SHOWED A REMARKABLE RENDITION OF WHERE
THE NARROW COLD FRONTAL RAIN BAND IS AS THE FRONT ENTERS THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. WIND JUST SHIFTED AT BFD AND GUSTED TO 27KT.
NOT TERRIBLY STRONG BUT IT IS A WELL DEFINED FEATURE AND MARKS THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE MUCH COOLER AIRMASS POISED TO FLOOD INTO THE
REGION.
MODELS SHOW THE ORGANIZED FRONTAL RAINS ADVANCING SEWD INTO THE
CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION THIS EVENING...AS PROGRESSIVE NRN
STREAM CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES. VERY STG H85 MSTR FLUX VALUES ARE
PROGGED ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FNT AS 50KT SWLY LLJ TRANSPORTS 1 INCH
PWATS NEWD ALONG THE BNDRY. DESPITE THE HIGH INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL
MSTR...THE LACK OF INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP PCPN AMTS GENERALLY
BTWN 0.25 AND 0.50 INCH OVR THE CNTRL MTNS. LIGHTER AMTS ARE XPCD
INTO THE LWR SUSQ VLY WITH THE OPTIMAL PCPN WINDOW OCCURRING
ROUGHLY IN THE 00-06Z TIMEFRAME. PCPN ASSOC WITH THE CLD FNT
SHOULD EXIT THE SERN ZONES BTWN 06-09Z.
COLDER AIR WILL BE DIRECTED INTO THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST
BEHIND THE FRONT LATER TONIGHT. PCPN MAY END AS A PERIOD OF RA/SN
SHOWERS OVR THE NW MTNS WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUM. TEMPS WILL FALL
INTO FRI MORNING WITH LOWS ABOUT 30 DEGREES COLDER THAN TODAY`S
HIGHS. IT WILL FEEL NOTICEABLY COLDER WITH SHARP DROP IN
TEMPERATURE WITH AN ADDITIONAL CHILL PROVIDED BY GUSTY WEST-
NORTHWEST WINDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL ACCOMPANY THE H5 TROF AXIS AND
SECONDARY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION THIS PERIOD. THE ANOMALOUS
AIR AT H85 CROSSING THE WARM LAKE WATERS SHOULD CREATE PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY AND SUPPORT LAKE SNOWS OVR THE NW MTNS. COULD SEE LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES PERHAPS AS FAR SOUTH AS I-80. ACCUMS MAY
BE HARD TO COME BY GIVEN TIME OF DAY...BUT COULD SEE AN INCH OR
TWO OVR THE SNOWBELT BY SAT MORNING. MODELS ALL SHOW A WEAK SFC
LOW DIGGING SEWD FM THE UPPER GRT LKS INTO WRN NY...WITH A
CHANNELED AND BLUSTERY/COLD WNW FLOW FOCUSED OVR LAKE ERIE INTO
THE NW PLATEAU THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF FRI NGT. WINDS SHOULD
SUBSIDE INTO SAT MORNING AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
INCREASED WINDS AND WIND GUSTS FOR THIS PD AND MAY LOWER MAX TEMPS
AS THIS COMPACT BUT POTENT FEATURE REMINDS US THAT -- AFTER A
RECENT STRETCH OF VERY MILD SPRING-LIKE WEATHER -- WINTER IS NOT
OVER.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE STATE SATURDAY...
BRINGING PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BUT STILL CHILLY AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE MID 30S OVER THE NORTH...AND LOWER TO MID 40S
THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEYS /WHICH WILL BE ABOUT
3-4F BELOW NORMAL/. UNDER LINGERING DEEP NW FLOW...THE INITIALLY
CHILLY 850 MB TEMPS OF -10 TO -14C IN THE MORNING WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE STEADILY DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT
LIKELY TOO LATE TO HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE MAX TEMPS.
SOME PATCHY MID AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS MAY DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE FLOW ALOFT BACKS TO A MORE WESTERLY
DIRECTION. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT ALONG THE
MID ATLANTIC PIEDMONT WILL BRING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WIND...
AND NEAR NORMAL MIN TEMPS IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30 DEGREES.
DEEPENING WEST TO SWRLY FLOW AT THE SFC AND ALOFT OVER PENN /AND A
STRENGTHENING 35 TO 45 KT SOUTHERLY FLOW AT 850 MB ACROSS THE MISS
AND LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY/ WILL HELP TO RAPIDLY TRANSPORT MUCH
HIGHER THETA-E AIR NWD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY...AND BOOST
500 MB HEIGHTS BY NEARLY 50 DAM DURING THE DAY.
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...850 MB TEMPS INCREASING TO PLUS 6-8C /AND THE
WARMING LLVL DOWNSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EAST/ WILL YIELD
AFTERNOON HIGHS SURGING BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. THESE
HIGHS COULD BE AT LEAST A FEW DEG F TOO COOL ACROSS THE CENTRAL
VALLEYS AND SUSQ VALLEY...SHOULD MIXING DEEPEN ENOUGH TO TAP THE
WARMER AIR ALOFT.
THE PLUME OF GULF MOISTURE STREAMING NE AHEAD OF A SHEARING SHORT
WAVE/WEAK SFC LOW LIFTING QUICKLY NE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE
GLAKES REGION...WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS /VERY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT ACRS THE WESTERN MTNS...AND MAINLY
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT ELSEWHERE/.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE QUITE LIGHT WITH BASIN AVERAGE AMOUNTS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.25 OF AN INCH. 12 GEFS PROBABILITY FOR GREATER
THAN 0.3/12 HOURS IS 30-40 PERCENT AT BEST...AND CONFINED TO A SMALL
PORTION OF SCENT PENN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK...UPPER HEIGHTS AND 850
MB TEMPS STAY ANOMALOUSLY WARM /7-10C OR PLUS 1-2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS/...RESULTING IN AFTERNOON MAXS WELL ABOVE NORMAL...
RANGING FORM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE MTNS...AND THE
MID TO UPPER 60S IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEYS.
A FEW WEAK...FAST MOVING SHORT WAVES ALOFT FOLLOWED BY A NRN STREAM
COOL FRONT COULD BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...BUT LIKELY 98 PERCENT OR MORE OF THAT TIME WILL BE RAIN
FREE AS MOST OF THE FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS WILL STAY WELL TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE REGION.
&&
..AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE CENTRAL
TERMINALS THRU 22Z WITH LOWERING VISBYS AND CIGS TO MVFR CATG.
CIGS HAVE RAPIDLY LOWERED TO AROUND 1KFT AT BFD WHICH SHOULD
PERSIST THRU EARLY TNT. SHOWERS SHOULD REACH THE SE AIRFIELDS BTWN
21-00Z AND CONT INTO THE FIRST PART OF TNT. THE MAIN COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY ALONG A CLE/CMH/CVG LINE WILL PUSH EWD ACRS THE AREA
EARLY TNT. EXPECT A SHARP WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH GUSTS BRIEFLY TAPERING OFF LATE TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL
ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL SEND A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION TOMORROW...WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD
AIR ALOFT SPILLING SEWD OVER THE WARMER LAKES. EXPECT A BLUSTERY
POST-FRONTAL SYNOPTIC REGIME WITH SNOW SHOWERS INVOF BFD AND BKN-
OVC MVFR TO VFR STRATOCU IMPACTING THE CENTRAL TAF SITES.
OUTLOOK...
FRI...MVFR -SHSN NW. GUSTY WNW WINDS 25-30KTS.
SAT-SUN...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
MON...CHC OF SHRA/REDUCED CIGS NW MTNS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
AVIATION...CERU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1256 PM EST WED MAR 7 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST
THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY
FOLLOWED BY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1255 PM WED...WITH CIGS SCATTERING OUT OVER THE NC
PIEDMONT...TEMPS HAVE WARMED MORE THAN EXPECTED. MAX TEMPS HAVE BEEN
ADJUSTED UP TO REFLECT THIS. TEMPS/DEWPOINTS AND WINDS ARE BEHAVING
THEMSELVES ACROSS THE REST OF THE FA.
AS OF 1010 AM WED...CLOUD COVER IS HOLDING TOUGH ACROSS MOST OF THE
FA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NC PIEDMONT EAST OF I-77. A LITTLE
DRIER AIR IS WORKING TOWARD THE SRN ZONES FROM THE MIDLANDS.
HOWEVER...THE RUC SHOWS LLVL RH AT THE 850MB LAYER ACTUALLY
INCREASING OVER MOST OF THE FA THIS AFTN. SO WHILE THE SRN AND ERN
TIER WILL SEE PERIODS OF SUN...MOST OF THE REST OF THE FA IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLOUDY WITH JUST OCCASIONAL BREAKS. THE SHRA
HAVEN/T PANNED OUT SO FAR...BUT I/LL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES ALONG THE
SRN ESCARPMENT. TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS SO FAR LOOK GOOD.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
EXPECT ISENTROPIC LIFT AND WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW WITH LOWERING AND
THICKENING CLOUD COVER. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FOR SLIGHT CHC POPS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SW BLUE RIDGE IN AREAS OF
BEST UPSLOPE FLOW. EVEN WITH MCLOUDY SKIES LATER TODAY...HIGHS WILL
WARM TO NEAR AVG WITH ABOVE AVG HEIGHTS AND INCREASING S FLOW. AS
DEEPER MOISTURE SURGES N TONIGHT EXPECT A SLIGHT CHC OF LGT SHWRS
ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS/MTNS...FROM
NE GA UP THRU THE CAROLINAS. OVERNIGHT TEMPS SHOULD STAY WARM ENOUGH
FOR ALL RAIN ACROSS THE AREA EXCEPT FOR PSBLY A LITTLE SNOW MIXING
IN ON SOME OF THE HIGHER PEAKS AND RIDGES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A NORTHERN
STREAM TROF AMPLIFYING OVER THE GREAT LAKES...FORCING A COLD FRONT
SEWD ACRS THE OH VLY ON THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...UPPER RIDGING LINGERS
OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES...AND THIS CAUSES THE FRONT TO LAY OVER
THE TN VLY AND MID ATLANTIC IN A MORE W-E FASHION THU NGT. THE
STRONGEST UPPER FORCING AND LLVL MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG THE
STALLING BNDRY LOOKS TO BE SET UP ACRS THE MID SOUTH/TN VLY TO OUR
WEST. FORCING OVER THE CWFA LOOKS BE CONFINED MAINLY TO FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE AND WLY UPSLOPE FLOW ACRS THE NC MTNS. SO WILL GO WITH
CATEGORICAL TO LIKELY POPS THERE. TO THE EAST...EVEN THO MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT...I WILL KEEP THE POPS BELOW LIKELY DUE TO THE
LACK OF FORCING. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BOTH THU AND FRI.
GUIDANCE HAS ALSO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON PUSHING THE
FRONT THRU THE AREA FRI NGT AS A BACKDOOR FRONT. FAIRLY STRONG SFC
HIGH PRES WILL BUILD OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS...STRENGTHENING DRY NELY LLVL FLOW. I NOW HAVE POPS
TAPERING BACK TO LESS THAN 15% BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. TEMPS SHUD ALSO
BE NOTICEABLY COOLER...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT 245 AM EST WEDNESDAY...A COMPLICATED AND FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE
POST FROPA PATTERN EXISTS FOR THE EARLY EXT RANGE. THE MODELS ARE
NOW LATCHING ONTO THE IDEA OF THE STACKED CP HIGH BUILDING IN FROM
THE NORTH EARLY SAT AND REDUCING ANY GOOD CHANCE OF PRECIP BELOW
CLIMO. WINDS IN THE SFC TO H8 LAYER ARE NE/LY AT KHKY THROUGH 18Z
SAT AND DISTINCTLY LOWER POT TEMP DOMES OVER MOST OF THE AREA
THROUGH 12Z SUN. SO...POPS HAVE BEEN CUT BACK TO NEGLIGIBLE SAT WITH
SOME MEASURE REMNANT MOISTURE AND ISEN LIFT ENABLING ISOL -SHRA
LATER SAT INTO SUN ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE CWFA.
THE PATTERN BECOMES LESS CERTAIN WITH THE VARYING IDEAS ON THE UPPER
LOW PLACEMENT AND ASSOCIATED NRN GOM CYCLOGENESIS. POPS WERE AGAIN
CUT BACK FOR SUN NIGHT INTO MON BASED ON CONFIDENCE...BUT LOW END
CHANCE WAS MAINTAINED ACROSS THE WRN ZONES WITH THE HIGH CENTER
MOVING OFF SHORE AND A MOIST RETURN FLOW POSSIBLY ENHANCED BY A SRN
LA FRONTAL WAVE. DONT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF THUNDER ACTIVITY
THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT BY MON THE ATMOS WILL BECOME MORE UNSTABLE
AND THE LLVL KINEMATICS MORE CONDUCIVE TO SUPPORT GENERAL TSTMS.
WITH THE CANADIAN AIR MASS MIX SAT/SUN...MAX TEMPS WILL BE HELD
BELOW NORMAL BY A CAT OR SO...THEN A QUICK WARMUP TO ABOVE NORMAL
MON IS EXPECTED AS A DEEP SW/LY FLOW STRENGTHENS.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CIGS IN THE 5-6KFT RANGE WILL LAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...CIGS SHOULD FALL THROUGH THE
MVFR CAT AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH A FEW HOURS OF IFR EXPECTED BY
SUNRISE. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE S TO SE THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
ELSEWHERE...VFR CIGS IN THE 5-6KFT RANGE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE
EVENING ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. OCCASIONAL MVFR ARE
POSSIBLE AT KAVL THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTN. CIGS WILL LOWER
THROUGH THE MVFR CAT OVERNIGHT...WITH IFR CONDITIONS GRADUALLY
DEVELOPING TOWARD SUNRISE. KAVL MAY NOT SEE CIGS QUITE THIS LOW AS
THE FLOW ISN/T QUITE AS UP THE VALLEY AS I/D LIKE TO SEE. ISOLATED
SHRA WILL CONTINUE TO THE SOUTH OF KAVL...AND A VCSH MAY NEED TO BE
ADDED.
OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIVE CIGS AND WIDESPREAD RAIN ARE EXPECTED THU
NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. CIGS WILL RISE AND MAY CLEAR FRI NIGHT AND
SAT AS A FRONT DROPS SOUTH OF THE AREA. LOWER CIGS WILL RETURN SAT
NIGHT AND SUN AS THE FRONT LIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH.
AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...MCAVOY
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...SBK
AVIATION...MCAVOY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ABERDEEN SD
727 PM CST THU MAR 8 2012
.UPDATE...
MADE A FEW MINOR UPDATES TO OVERNIGHT FORECAST TO LOWER MINS
SEVERAL DEGREES OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST WHERE STRONG CAA IS
EXPECTED TO BRING TEMPS DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BY MORNING.
ALSO LOWERED CLOUD/SKY COVER...GOING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR FOR ALL BUT
THE NORTHEAST ZONES WHERE A FEW CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE
STRONGEST CAA/BAROCLINIC ZONE.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF ND THIS
AFTERNOON. COMBINED WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE DAKOTAS TONIGHT AND SNOW COVER ON THE
GROUND...TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS IN
THE EAST. WHERE GROUND IS BARE...EXPECT LOWS TO DROP INTO THE
UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH BETWEEN 0Z AND 03Z AFTER THE FROPA. UNTIL THEN
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE BETWEEN 21Z AND 0Z. MOST AREAS WILL STAY
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA..THOUGH THE 17Z RUC INDICATES THAT CORSON
COUNTY AND LOCAL AREAS IN THE FAR NORTHEAST CORNER MAY BRIEFLY SEE
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 MPH. DECIDED THE IMPACT WAS NOT SUFFICIENT
ENOUGH TO MERIT AN ADVISORY. AT THIS POINT SNOW PACK IS WET AND
HEAVY ENOUGH TO LIMIT ANY BLOWING SNOW.
WITH DRY WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND CONTINUING THROUGH
SATURDAY...WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
IN SNOW FREE AREAS ACROSS CENTRAL SD. EXPECT SURFACE TEMPS TO CLIMB
INTO THE LOWER 50S IN THE EAST TO LOWER 70S IN SOUTHCENTRAL SD BY
SATURDAY AS H85 TEMPS RISE TO NEAR +13.
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
AS THE PERIOD OPENS...THERE IS A LONGWAVE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
POSITIONED OVER THE WESTERN CONUS /ESPECIALLY THE PAC NW/ AND A
CUT-OFF LOW SPINNING/MEANDERING OVER THE DESERT SW. BY
MONDAY...THIS CUT-OFF LOW IS FINALLY EJECTING OUT OF THE SWRN
CONUS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. TEMP-WISE...CURRENT
SOLUTIONS SUGGEST IT WILL BE WARM ENOUGH THAT ANY PRECIPITATION
COMING INTO THE FAR EASTERN CWA SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS LOW WOULD BE RAIN. THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG
TERM SEES THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST REPOSITION TO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES/EASTERN CONUS...WHILE A BROAD LONGWAVE TROF
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WEST COAST WITH VARIOUS TRANSIENT S/WS PROGGED
TO WORK INLAND ACROSS WASHINGTON..IDAHO AND MONTANA BEFORE BEING
REDIRECTED NORTH AND EAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHERN MN AND SC
CANADA. LARGELY...THIS CWA IS NOT EXPECTED TO RECEIVE MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION BETWEEN MONDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. OTHER THAN A COLD
FRONT PROGGED TO PASS THROUGH WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT BRINGING A
TEMPORARY COOL DOWN...THERE SEEMS TO BE NO END IN SIGHT TO
MILD...UNSEASONABLY WARM /MUCH ABOVE NORMAL/ AIR OVER THE CWA NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL
TRANSITION TO LIGHT NELY THIS EVENING AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES INTO NORTHEAST SD. AS THE SFC HIGH CONTINUES TO SLIDE
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING...WINDS WILL TRANSITION TO
SOUTHERLY...AROUND 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS AT ALL
TERMINALS.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CHURCH
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...CHURCH
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ABERDEEN SD
606 PM CST THU MAR 8 2012
.UPDATE...
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE BELOW.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF ND THIS
AFTERNOON. COMBINED WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE DAKOTAS TONIGHT AND SNOW COVER ON THE
GROUND...TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS IN
THE EAST. WHERE GROUND IS BARE...EXPECT LOWS TO DROP INTO THE
UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH BETWEEN 0Z AND 03Z AFTER THE FROPA. UNTIL THEN
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE BETWEEN 21Z AND 0Z. MOST AREAS WILL STAY
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA..THOUGH THE 17Z RUC INDICATES THAT CORSON
COUNTY AND LOCAL AREAS IN THE FAR NORTHEAST CORNER MAY BRIEFLY SEE
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 MPH. DECIDED THE IMPACT WAS NOT SUFFICIENT
ENOUGH TO MERIT AN ADVISORY. AT THIS POINT SNOW PACK IS WET AND
HEAVY ENOUGH TO LIMIT ANY BLOWING SNOW.
WITH DRY WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND CONTINUING THROUGH
SATURDAY...WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
IN SNOW FREE AREAS ACROSS CENTRAL SD. EXPECT SURFACE TEMPS TO CLIMB
INTO THE LOWER 50S IN THE EAST TO LOWER 70S IN SOUTHCENTRAL SD BY
SATURDAY AS H85 TEMPS RISE TO NEAR +13.
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
AS THE PERIOD OPENS...THERE IS A LONGWAVE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
POSITIONED OVER THE WESTERN CONUS /ESPECIALLY THE PAC NW/ AND A
CUT-OFF LOW SPINNING/MEANDERING OVER THE DESERT SW. BY
MONDAY...THIS CUT-OFF LOW IS FINALLY EJECTING OUT OF THE SWRN
CONUS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. TEMP-WISE...CURRENT
SOLUTIONS SUGGEST IT WILL BE WARM ENOUGH THAT ANY PRECIPITATION
COMING INTO THE FAR EASTERN CWA SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS LOW WOULD BE RAIN. THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG
TERM SEES THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST REPOSITION TO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES/EASTERN CONUS...WHILE A BROAD LONGWAVE TROF
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WEST COAST WITH VARIOUS TRANSIENT S/WS PROGGED
TO WORK INLAND ACROSS WASHINGTON..IDAHO AND MONTANA BEFORE BEING
REDIRECTED NORTH AND EAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHERN MN AND SC
CANADA. LARGELY...THIS CWA IS NOT EXPECTED TO RECEIVE MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION BETWEEN MONDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. OTHER THAN A COLD
FRONT PROGGED TO PASS THROUGH WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT BRINGING A
TEMPORARY COOL DOWN...THERE SEEMS TO BE NO END IN SIGHT TO
MILD...UNSEASONABLY WARM /MUCH ABOVE NORMAL/ AIR OVER THE CWA NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL
TRANSITION TO LIGHT NELY THIS EVENING AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES INTO NORTHEAST SD. AS THE SFC HIGH CONTINUES TO SLIDE
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING...WINDS WILL TRANSITION TO
SOUTHERLY...AROUND 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS AT ALL
TERMINALS.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...CHURCH
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION ...CORRECTION IN EXTENDED PERIOD
NWS LA CROSSE WI
240 PM CST WED MAR 7 2012
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
240 PM CST WED MAR 7 2012
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT/BREEZY
CONDITIONS THURSDAY/PRECIPITATION CHANCES AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT.
SURFACE MAP AT 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON HAD AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
SOUTHERN ONTARIO WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN INTO SOUTHEAST MN/CENTRAL IA. RADAR SHOWING INCREASING
ECHOES ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT IN STRONG SFC TO 850MB
FRONTOGENESIS. A FEW SURFACE OBSERVATIONS STARTING TO REPORT LIGHT
RAIN UNDER THESE ECHOES AS WELL. OTHERWISE...A VERY SHARP
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT EXISTED ACROSS THE COLD FRONT WITH 50S TO A FEW
MIDDLE 60S AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND THE MIDDLE 30S ALMOST
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT.
07.12Z NCEP MODELS/07.09Z SREF SHOWING GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD.
LOOK FOR THE COLD FRONT TO SLOWLY EXIT SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING AROUND MIDNIGHT FOR MOST OF THE
AREA. TEMPERATURE PROFILE MAY SUPPORT A RAIN/SNOW MIX AS THE COLDER
AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT BRISK NORTHWEST
WINDS OVERNIGHT IN COLD AIR ADVECTION AND FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT. OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE 20-30 DEGREE
RANGE.
COLDER CYCLONIC FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ON THURSDAY WITH MODELS
SHOWING A FAIRLY VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL PV-ANOMALY/SURFACE TROUGH
DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS
WILL PRODUCE A STEEP 0-1KM LAPSE RATE ACROSS THE AREA FOR CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 10 IN WISCONSIN. ALONG WITH TROUGH PASSAGE AND DEEP MIXING
TO AROUND 800MB...EXPECT GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS REACHING
30-40 MPH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE
MID 30S TO MID 40S.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FRIDAY FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
WITH HIGHS AGAIN IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO MIDDLE 40S.
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS TO THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH THE NAM SHOWING
925MB TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 5-6C RANGE. WITH SUNNY SKIES AND
DECENT MIXING...EXPECT HIGHS TO TOP OFF IN THE 50S.
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...THE 84H NAM/ECMWF SHOWING AN AREA OF RAIN AHEAD
OF AN UPPER LOW MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SURGING NORTHWARD
TOWARD THE AREA. HAVE INCLUDED A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE OF -RA ACROSS
MAINLY SOUTH OF I-90 TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
240 PM CST WED MAR 7 2012
THE 07.12Z GFS/ECMWF BOTH SHOWING THE UPPER LOW CONTINUING TO MOVE
NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT FOR A GOOD
CHANCE OF RAIN. THE MODELS THEN SHOW MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD FOR A
WARMING TREND. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...TOOK A BLEND OF THE GFS
AND EUROPEAN WHICH YIELDED HIGHS IN THE 50S MONDAY...WARMING TO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S ON TUESDAY AND THE MIDDLE/UPPER 60S ON
WEDNESDAY. IF THE ECMWF PANS OUT...HIGHS COULD BE PUSHING WELL INTO
THE 70S. WILL BE KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON THIS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY
1100 AM CST WED MAR 7 2012
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH LATEST RUC13 AND HRRR MODELS PUSHING IT ACROSS KRST
NEAR 20Z AND KLSE AROUND 23Z. SOUTHERLY WINDS MOISTENING THE AIR
MASS...BUT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. POST FRONT SFC
OBS INDICATE MVFR/IFR CIGS. ALSO SOME -RA/DZ BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY...IN A REGION OF SLOPING FRONTOGENETIC LIFT. SOME SUB 2SM
VSBYS IN THIS AREA...MOSTLY WITH AREAS OF -DZ/BR. WILL ADD A TEMPO
GROUP FOR KRST FOR LOWER VSBYS...AND CONTINUE SOME IFR CIGS. THINK
THERE SHOULD BE SOME DIURNAL IMPROVEMENT POST FRONT...SO CONFIDENCE
NOT HIGH THAT THE LOWER CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE REALIZED FARTHER EAST.
THAT SAID OF COURSE...TRENDS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED AND UPDATES
MADE IF THESE CONDITIONS LOOK MORE LIKELY. CIGS SHOULD CLEAR LATER
TONIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM/COLD FRONT CONTINUE EAST...AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW A GOOD MIXED NEAR SFC LAYER THROUGH TONIGHT
AND INTO THURSDAY. EXPECT GUSTS TO CONTINUE AT KRST AS A
RESULT...ALTHOUGH VALLEY LOCATION OF KLSE AND DIRECTION OF WIND
SHOULD PREVENT MOST GUSTS. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND MIXING UP TO
4 KFT WILL MAKE FOR WINDY/GUSTY THU.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
240 PM CST WED MAR 7 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION...RIECK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1100 AM CST WED MAR 7 2012
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
310 AM CST WED MAR 7 2012
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY INTO
TONIGHT AND TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWED A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM
NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WITH VERY MILD
TEMPERATURES ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING...SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM WARMING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S. ANOTHER CONCERN IS ON PLACEMENT OF PRECIPITATION AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. EARLY THIS MORNING...THE MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER WAS
POST FRONTAL WITH NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION BEING REPORTED.
HOWEVER...AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST FRONTOGENESIS IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE. THE FIRST BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS LOOKS TO SET UP IN THE
900-800 MB LEVEL. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT LOW LEVEL SATURATION SO
SHOULD SEE THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS NORTHEAST
IOWA...SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS FRONTOGENESIS BAND APPEARS TO DEEPEN WITH TIME AS IT DRIFTS
SOUTHEAST INTO EXTREME NORTHEAST IOWA AND FAR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. SHOULD SEE THE RAIN BAND
BECOME MORE ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. EXTREME SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN MAY
PICK UP AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL OUT OF THIS SYSTEM
WITH 0.03 TO AROUND A TENTH OF INCH ELSEWHERE. PLAN ON FALLING
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. THE RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS EVENING.
DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN...WE COULD SEE
A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION ENDS. LOOK
FOR LOW TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 20S ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTHEAST IOWA THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO THE UPPER 20S
TO LOWER 30S ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EDGE INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL FALL 10 DEGREES FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY...WITH 850 MB TEMPS RANDING FROM -10 C ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO -5 C ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL SLIDE THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE POTENTIAL TO
BRING SOME CUMULUS CLOUDS TO THE AREA. PLAN ON HIGH TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO THE
LOWER 40S ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA UNDER PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ON
THURSDAY WITH STEEP LAPS RATES IN PLACE. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS LACKING WITH TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREADS OF 10
DEGREES ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO FAR SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN. NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO PRODUCE VERTICALLY DEVELOPED CUMULUS TO PRODUCE LIGHT
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. CONFIDENCE LOW ON THIS OCCURRING GIVEN HOW
DRY THE AIRMASS IS. WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THESE AREAS
ON THURSDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR SHALLOW CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT. IT WILL BE
RATHER BREEZY ON THURSDAY WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PASSING JUST
NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS...PRODUCING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. LOOK FOR WEST NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 35 MPH. PLAN ON DECREASING CLOUDS THURSDAY EVENING AS
SURFACE COOLING COMMENCES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER
THE REGION ON FRIDAY PROVIDING SUNNY SKIES. LOOK FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN TO THE LOWER 40S ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH 850 MB
TEMPERATURES WARMING TO AROUND +6 C BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
310 AM CST WED MAR 7 2012
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY ON SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
MEANDERS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. PLAN ON HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN
TO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN INTO NORTHEAST IOWA.
07.00 MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW DIFFERING SOLUTIONS
REGARDING THE THE EVOLUTION AND MOVEMENT OF THE FOUR CORNERS LOW
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE ECMWF TAKES THE UPPER LOW INTO
EASTERN NEBRASKA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE GFS IS A LITTLE FASTER AND BRINGS THE UPPER LOW
INTO CENTRAL IOWA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND JUST BRUSHES SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT....WITH A SECOND UPPER
LOW DIVING SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS. THE GEM LATCHES ONTO THE
SOUTHERN LOW SOLUTION AND TAKES THE LOW INTO TEXAS...LIFTING IT
INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. GIVEN THE SPREAD IN POTENTIAL SOLUTIONS WILL MAINTAIN A
MODEL CONSENSUS BLEND APPROACH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. PLAN ON A
CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT
BEFORE THE LOW FINALLY EXITS THE AREA. WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
PERSIST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60.
&&
.AVIATION...
1100 AM CST WED MAR 7 2012
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH LATEST RUC13 AND HRRR MODELS PUSHING IT ACROSS KRST
NEAR 20Z AND KLSE AROUND 23Z. SOUTHERLY WINDS MOISTENING THE AIR
MASS...BUT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. POST FRONT SFC
OBS INDICATE MVFR/IFR CIGS. ALSO SOME -RA/DZ BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY...IN A REGION OF SLOPING FRONTOGENETIC LIFT. SOME SUB 2SM
VSBYS IN THIS AREA...MOSTLY WITH AREAS OF -DZ/BR. WILL ADD A TEMPO
GROUP FOR KRST FOR LOWER VSBYS...AND CONTINUE SOME IFR CIGS. THINK
THERE SHOULD BE SOME DIURNAL IMPROVEMENT POST FRONT...SO CONFIDENCE
NOT HIGH THAT THE LOWER CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE REALIZED FARTHER EAST.
THAT SAID OF COURSE...TRENDS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED AND UPDATES
MADE IF THESE CONDITIONS LOOK MORE LIKELY. CIGS SHOULD CLEAR LATER
TONIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM/COLD FRONT CONTINUE EAST...AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW A GOOD MIXED NEAR SFC LAYER THROUGH TONIGHT
AND INTO THURSDAY. EXPECT GUSTS TO CONTINUE AT KRST AS A
RESULT...ALTHOUGH VALLEY LOCATION OF KLSE AND DIRECTION OF WIND
SHOULD PREVENT MOST GUSTS. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND MIXING UP TO
4 KFT WILL MAKE FOR WINDY/GUSTY THU.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
310 AM CST WED MAR 7 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM....WETENKAMP
AVIATION.....RIECK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
527 AM CST WED MAR 7 2012
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
310 AM CST WED MAR 7 2012
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY INTO
TONIGHT AND TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWED A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM
NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WITH VERY MILD
TEMPERATURES ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING...SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM WARMING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S. ANOTHER CONCERN IS ON PLACEMENT OF PRECIPITATION AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. EARLY THIS MORNING...THE MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER WAS
POST FRONTAL WITH NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION BEING REPORTED.
HOWEVER...AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST FRONTOGENESIS IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE. THE FIRST BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS LOOKS TO SET UP IN THE
900-800 MB LEVEL. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT LOW LEVEL SATURATION SO
SHOULD SEE THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS NORTHEAST
IOWA...SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS FRONTOGENESIS BAND APPEARS TO DEEPEN WITH TIME AS IT DRIFTS
SOUTHEAST INTO EXTREME NORTHEAST IOWA AND FAR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. SHOULD SEE THE RAIN BAND
BECOME MORE ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. EXTREME SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN MAY
PICK UP AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL OUT OF THIS SYSTEM
WITH 0.03 TO AROUND A TENTH OF INCH ELSEWHERE. PLAN ON FALLING
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. THE RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS EVENING.
DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN...WE COULD SEE
A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION ENDS. LOOK
FOR LOW TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 20S ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTHEAST IOWA THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO THE UPPER 20S
TO LOWER 30S ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EDGE INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL FALL 10 DEGREES FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY...WITH 850 MB TEMPS RANDING FROM -10 C ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO -5 C ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL SLIDE THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE POTENTIAL TO
BRING SOME CUMULUS CLOUDS TO THE AREA. PLAN ON HIGH TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO THE
LOWER 40S ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA UNDER PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ON
THURSDAY WITH STEEP LAPS RATES IN PLACE. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS LACKING WITH TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREADS OF 10
DEGREES ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO FAR SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN. NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO PRODUCE VERTICALLY DEVELOPED CUMULUS TO PRODUCE LIGHT
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. CONFIDENCE LOW ON THIS OCCURRING GIVEN HOW
DRY THE AIRMASS IS. WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THESE AREAS
ON THURSDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR SHALLOW CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT. IT WILL BE
RATHER BREEZY ON THURSDAY WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PASSING JUST
NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS...PRODUCING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. LOOK FOR WEST NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 35 MPH. PLAN ON DECREASING CLOUDS THURSDAY EVENING AS
SURFACE COOLING COMMENCES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER
THE REGION ON FRIDAY PROVIDING SUNNY SKIES. LOOK FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN TO THE LOWER 40S ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH 850 MB
TEMPERATURES WARMING TO AROUND +6 C BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
310 AM CST WED MAR 7 2012
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY ON SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
MEANDERS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. PLAN ON HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN
TO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN INTO NORTHEAST IOWA.
07.00 MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW DIFFERING SOLUTIONS
REGARDING THE THE EVOLUTION AND MOVEMENT OF THE FOUR CORNERS LOW
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE ECMWF TAKES THE UPPER LOW INTO
EASTERN NEBRASKA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE GFS IS A LITTLE FASTER AND BRINGS THE UPPER LOW
INTO CENTRAL IOWA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND JUST BRUSHES SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT....WITH A SECOND UPPER
LOW DIVING SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS. THE GEM LATCHES ONTO THE
SOUTHERN LOW SOLUTION AND TAKES THE LOW INTO TEXAS...LIFTING IT
INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. GIVEN THE SPREAD IN POTENTIAL SOLUTIONS WILL MAINTAIN A
MODEL CONSENSUS BLEND APPROACH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. PLAN ON A
CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT
BEFORE THE LOW FINALLY EXITS THE AREA. WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
PERSIST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60.
&&
.AVIATION...TODAY AND TONIGHT
527 AM CST WED MAR 7 2012
A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM NORTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO EASTERN
NEBRASKA THIS MORNING. DESPITE AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...CONDITIONS HAVE REMAINED VFR AND EXPECT THEM TO DO SO
UNTIL JUST BEFORE THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH. BOTH THE 07.06Z NAM
AND 07.09Z RUC SUGGEST A MVFR CEILING WILL DEVELOP AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES. THE LACK OF ANY MVFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT DOES NOT LEND A LOT OF CONFIDENCE TO THIS OCCURRING...BUT
HAVE RETAINED THIS TO MAINTAIN SOME CONTINUITY WITH PREVIOUS
FORECASTS. BELIEVE THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS OCCURRING WILL BE ONCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND THE
COLDER AIR QUICKLY COMES IN. THE NAM AND RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST IFR
AT KRST BEHIND THE FRONT BUT NOT FOR VERY LONG BEFORE THE CEILINGS
GO BACK UP TO MVFR. THIS IS ALSO SEEN IN THE 07.03Z SREF DATA
WHICH SHOWS A NARROW CORRIDOR OF IFR CONDITIONS RIGHT BEHIND THE
FRONT FOR ABOUT 3 HOURS OR SO. AS FOR THE RAIN...THE BEST CHANCES
APPEAR TO BE A COUPLE HOURS EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THERE MAY BE ENOUGH RAIN TO REDUCE THE VISIBILITY TO MVFR FOR A
WHILE...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH AS THE SREF DATA SHOWS ALMOST
NO PROBABILITIES FOR MVFR VISIBILITY FOR EITHER TAF SITE. BASED ON
THIS...SHORTENED UP THE PERIOD OF MVFR VISIBILITY FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS GOOD LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL BE IN PLACE BOTH AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT TO
MAINTAIN WINDS GUSTS THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. DID DROP
THE GUSTS AT KLSE A COUPLE HOURS BEHIND THE FRONT PASSAGE AS A
NORTHWEST WIND IS NOT CONDUCIVE OF GUSTS IN THE VALLEY LOCATION.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
310 AM CST WED MAR 7 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM....WETENKAMP
AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
310 AM CST WED MAR 7 2012
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
310 AM CST WED MAR 7 2012
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY INTO
TONIGHT AND TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWED A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM
NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WITH VERY MILD
TEMPERATURES ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING...SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM WARMING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S. ANOTHER CONCERN IS ON PLACEMENT OF PRECIPITATION AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. EARLY THIS MORNING...THE MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER WAS
POST FRONTAL WITH NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION BEING REPORTED.
HOWEVER...AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST FRONTOGENESIS IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE. THE FIRST BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS LOOKS TO SET UP IN THE
900-800 MB LEVEL. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT LOW LEVEL SATURATION SO
SHOULD SEE THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS NORTHEAST
IOWA...SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS FRONTOGENESIS BAND APPEARS TO DEEPEN WITH TIME AS IT DRIFTS
SOUTHEAST INTO EXTREME NORTHEAST IOWA AND FAR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. SHOULD SEE THE RAIN BAND
BECOME MORE ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. EXTREME SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN MAY
PICK UP AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL OUT OF THIS SYSTEM
WITH 0.03 TO AROUND A TENTH OF INCH ELSEWHERE. PLAN ON FALLING
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. THE RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS EVENING.
DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN...WE COULD SEE
A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION ENDS. LOOK
FOR LOW TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 20S ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTHEAST IOWA THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO THE UPPER 20S
TO LOWER 30S ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EDGE INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL FALL 10 DEGREES FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY...WITH 850 MB TEMPS RANDING FROM -10 C ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO -5 C ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL SLIDE THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE POTENTIAL TO
BRING SOME CUMULUS CLOUDS TO THE AREA. PLAN ON HIGH TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO THE
LOWER 40S ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA UNDER PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ON
THURSDAY WITH STEEP LAPS RATES IN PLACE. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS LACKING WITH TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREADS OF 10
DEGREES ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO FAR SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN. NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO PRODUCE VERTICALLY DEVELOPED CUMULUS TO PRODUCE LIGHT
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. CONFIDENCE LOW ON THIS OCCURRING GIVEN HOW
DRY THE AIRMASS IS. WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THESE AREAS
ON THURSDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR SHALLOW CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT. IT WILL BE
RATHER BREEZY ON THURSDAY WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PASSING JUST
NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS...PRODUCING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. LOOK FOR WEST NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 35 MPH. PLAN ON DECREASING CLOUDS THURSDAY EVENING AS
SURFACE COOLING COMMENCES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER
THE REGION ON FRIDAY PROVIDING SUNNY SKIES. LOOK FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN TO THE LOWER 40S ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH 850 MB
TEMPERATURES WARMING TO AROUND +6 C BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
310 AM CST WED MAR 7 2012
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY ON SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
MEANDERS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. PLAN ON HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN
TO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN INTO NORTHEAST IOWA.
07.00 MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW DIFFERING SOLUTIONS
REGARDING THE THE EVOLUTION AND MOVEMENT OF THE FOUR CORNERS LOW
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE ECMWF TAKES THE UPPER LOW INTO
EASTERN NEBRASKA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE GFS IS A LITTLE FASTER AND BRINGS THE UPPER LOW
INTO CENTRAL IOWA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND JUST BRUSHES SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT....WITH A SECOND UPPER
LOW DIVING SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS. THE GEM LATCHES ONTO THE
SOUTHERN LOW SOLUTION AND TAKES THE LOW INTO TEXAS...LIFTING IT
INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. GIVEN THE SPREAD IN POTENTIAL SOLUTIONS WILL MAINTAIN A
MODEL CONSENSUS BLEND APPROACH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. PLAN ON A
CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT
BEFORE THE LOW FINALLY EXITS THE AREA. WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
PERSIST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60.
&&
.AVIATION...THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY
1135 PM CST TUE MAR 6 2012
MAIN CONCERN REMAINS ON ONSET OF LOW LEVEL SATURATION AND
CORRESPONDING CEILINGS HEIGHTS. FOG PRODUCT SATELLITE
IMAGERY...ALONG WITH SURFACE REPORTS INDICATE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
STRATUS AS FAR SOUTH AS EASTERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. A
SMALL BAND OF CLOUDS WITH CEILINGS AROUND 5K FEET WERE LIFTING
THROUGH CENTRAL IOWA. LATEST RUN OF THE RUC AND NAM MODELS HAVE
BACKED OFF ON MUCH LOW LEVEL SATURATION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WITH SATURATION NOW OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z-18Z WEDNESDAY AT
BOTH TAF SITES. STILL EXPECT CEILINGS TO DROP INTO THE MVFR
CATEGORY AT KLSE AND IFR AT KRST...BUT DELAYED TO AROUND 15Z. COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND LIFT AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN SOME LIGHT RAIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. RAIN SHOULD DIMINISHING BETWEEN 03Z-06Z
THURSDAY...WITH CEILINGS CLIMBING INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AT KRST
AFTER 03Z.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
310 AM CST WED MAR 7 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM....WETENKAMP
AVIATION.....RABERDING
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1135 PM CST TUE MAR 6 2012
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
254 PM CST TUE MAR 6 2012
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PACKAGE...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WED...
TEMPERATURE THRU THE PERIOD.
18Z DATA ANALYSIS HAD A RATHER BROAD 995MB SFC LOW OVER THE DAKOTAS/
WY. PRESSURE GRADIENT AROUND THIS LOW COVERED MOST OF CENTRAL NOAM.
TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT EAST OF THE LOW EXTENDED FROM TX TO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES...BRINGING WARM AND INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR
NORTHWARD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. WITH SUNNY SKIES...MINIMAL SNOW
OVER OVER IA/SOUTHERN MN/SOUTHWEST WI AND THE BRISK SOUTHWEST WINDS
FOR MIXING...EARLY AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THESE AREAS WERE IN THE 50S TO
NEAR 70...FOR AN EARLY TASTE OF SPRING. WITH THE DEEPER SNOW FROM
FEB 28/29...AND NORTH OF A WEAK WARM FRONT...TEMPS ACROSS CENTRAL
MN/NORTHERN WI MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S.
NO MAJOR ERRORS NOTED WITH 06.12Z MODEL INITIALIZATIONS. BIGGEST
ERROR NOTED WAS GFS TOO FAR NORTHEAST/5 TO 10F TOO HIGH WITH THE
SFC DEW POINTS/MOISTURE PLUME IN EASTERN IA. SOLUTIONS QUITE SIMILAR
THRU 12Z THU BEFORE DIVERGING WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE SOUTHERN
STREAM PORTION OF THE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS THU NIGHT INTO
FRI NIGHT. DPROG/DT OF 500MB HGTS AT 06.12Z SHOWED THE MODEL RUNS OF
04.12Z AND 05.12Z VERIFIED RATHER WELL ACROSS NOAM/EASTERN PAC WITH
ECMWF OFFERING THE BETTER RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY. MODELS CONVERGING
ON A TIGHTER CONSENSUS SOLUTION TONIGHT THRU THU AS THE PAC COAST
TROUGH MOVES INTO WESTERN NOAM AND SPLITS...WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM
PORTION MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WED NIGHT. GOOD CONSISTENCY
AMONG MODELS FOR HGTS TO RISE OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS THU NIGHT
THRU FRI NIGHT BUT SAME CANNOT BE SAID FOR MODELS WITH THE SOUTHWEST
CONUS PORTION OF THE TROUGH. SOLUTIONS DIVERGING ON THOSE DETAILS
FRI/FRI NIGHT. ECMWF WITH THE BETTER RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY TONIGHT
THRU FRI NIGHT. CHECK OF OBS VS. MODEL DATA AT 18Z SHOWED ALL QUITE
GOOD WITH THE DAKOTAS/WY LOW. GFS REMAINED TOO AGGRESSIVE BRINGING
HIGHER DEW POINTS INTO SOUTHWEST WI. PER WV IMAGERY...ALL LOOKED
GOOD AND COMPARABLE WITH THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE WESTERN CONUS
TROUGH. NO CLEAR MODEL FAVORITE BASED ON 18Z PERFORMANCE. WITH ECMWF
SHOWING THE BETTER RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY...FAVORED A MODEL/ENSEMBLE
CONSENSUS WEIGHTED TOWARD THE ECMWF THIS CYCLE. SHORT-TERM FCST
CONFIDENCE AVERAGE TO GOOD THIS CYCLE.
FOR THE SHORT TERM...WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT...AHEAD OF THE LOW AND A COLD FRONT ADVANCING EAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE...SEEN AS STRATO-
CUMULUS OVER OK ADVANCES NORTH TONIGHT AS WELL. A MILD NIGHT
TONIGHT WITH GRADIENT WINDS KEEPING THE BOUNDARY LAYER STIRRED AND
INCREASING LOW CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME CONCERN FOR FOG/-DZ LATE
TONIGHT...BUT GRADIENT WINDS WILL KEEP BOUNDARY LAYER STIRRED AND
THE INCREASING CLOUDS. BY 12Z MODEL SOUNDING SHOW MOISTURE TO ONLY
BE ABOUT 1KM DEEP...A BIT SHALLOW FOR -DZ. LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS
BRINGS THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA WED AFTERNOON. STRONGER OF
THE SFC-700MB FN CONVERGENCE IS ALONG/BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH
MOISTURE DEEPENING TO BETWEEN 800-700MB. TIGHTER MODEL CONSENSUS
SPREADS A MORE CONSISTENT LIFT/PRECIP SIGNAL SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
FCST AREA LATE WED MORNING THRU WED EVENING...WITH DEEPEST OF
POST-FRONTAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST END OF THE FCST AREA WED
EVENING. DID ADD A -DZ MENTION TO THE NORTHWEST 2/3 OF THE FCST AREA
EARLY WED MORNING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH THE MOISTURE DEEPENING TO
ABOUT 800MB AFTER 12Z WED. RAISED -RA CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
1/3 OF THE FCST AREA LATE WED MORNING...THEN RAISED -RA CHANCES TO
70-85 PERCENT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST 3/4 OF THE FCST AREA FOR WED
AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE TOP OF THE MOISTURE BELOW 700MB...-RA AMOUNTS
WED LOOKING LIGHT. COLDER AIR SPREADS IN BEHIND THE FRONT WED NIGHT
WITH POTENTIAL FOR THE TRAILING EDGE OF THE PRECIP/-RA TO MIX
WITH/CHANGE TO -SN BEFORE ENDING. LITTLE IF ANY -SN ACCUMULATION
FROM THIS. DRIER/COOLER CAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST FOR THU
THRU FRI NIGHT. SUBSIDENCE/SFC-700MB DRYING SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA
LATER WED NIGHT/THU. 850-500MB SHORTWAVE RIDGING/ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW
BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THU NIGHT-FRI NIGHT. THU THRU FRI NIGHT
TRENDING TO BE A CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR PERIOD. CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH
DRIFTS ACROSS THE AREA LATE THU NIGHT/FRI WITH 925MB TEMPS AT 12Z
FRI IN THE -2C TO -8C RANGE. DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY WINDS DECOUPLE
THU NIGHT...FRI MORNING LOWS COULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES COLDER THAN
THOSE THAT CURRENTLY BLEND WELL WITH THE NEIGHBORING FCST GRIDS.
LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION/WARMING 925MB TEMPS BEGIN TO SPREAD ACROSS
THE AREA FRI NIGHT ALONG WITH SOME SOUTH GRADIENT WINDS.
FAVORED A BLEND OF THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HIGHS/LOWS FOR TONIGHT
THRU FRI NIGHT. CONTINUED THE NON-DIURNAL TEMP TREND WED WITH HIGHS
LATE MORNING OR MID-DAY THEN FALLING AS THE FRONT/-RA PUSH INTO/
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
254 PM CST TUE MAR 6 2012
06.00Z MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ALREADY AT ODDS ON SAT WITH THE EVOLUTION
OF THE SOUTHWEST CONUS MID LEVEL LOW...AS ARE THE 06.12Z RUNS. GFS
MORE SPLIT WITH ONE PIECE OF ENERGY OVER OK/KS AND CA BAJA. OTHER
MODELS WITH ONE LOW/TROUGH OVER CO/AZ/NM. MODELS SHOWING MODEST
CONSISTENCY WITH THEIR PREVIOUS RUNS. THESE DIFFERENCES CONTINUE...
AND INCREASE...SUN AS SOME FORM OF THIS LOW/TROUGH LIFTS TOWARD OR
INTO THE MID/UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY...GFS FASTEST INTO THE OH VALLEY
WITH UKMET/GEM SLOWER AND STILL LIFTING INTO THE MID MS VALLEY AT
00Z MON. LOTS OF DETAIL DIFFERENCES BY MON/TUE IN THE FLOW OVER
CENTRAL/EASTERN NOAM BUT GENERAL CONSENSUS FOR HGTS TO RISE OVER THE
NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS. BETTER CONSENSUS WITH THE NEXT STRONG TROUGH TO
APPROACH/MOVE ONTO THE WEST COAST BY TUE. GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES WITH
THE HANDLING OF THE SOUTHWEST CONUS LOW/ENERGY ALREADY FRI/SAT...THE
LONG-TERM FCST CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE THIS CYCLE. WILL SIDE
WITH THE PMDEPD IDEA THAT THE GFS IS AN OUTLIER AND FAVOR A
CONSENSUS OF THE ECMWF/GEM/UKMET/ENSEMBLES THAT EJECTS SOME PORTION
OF THE SOUTHWEST CONUS ENERGY INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST SUN. SHORTWAVE
RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE REGION SAT WITH THE SFC HIGH MOVING
EAST OF THE AREA. SAT TRENDS DRY/WARMER WITH INCREASING SOUTH WINDS
ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH. SFC THRU MID LEVEL LOW EJECTING
NORTHEAST SAT NIGHT INTO SUN NIGHT/MON PULLS ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE
NORTHWARD TOWARD AND INTO THE AREA. SOUNDINGS AND LOW LEVEL THERMAL
PROFILES INDICATE COLUMN WILL BE WARM ENOUGH THIS PERIOD THAT THE
BULK OF ANY PRECIP WITH THIS PASSING TROUGH WOULD BE RAIN. GOOD
CONSENSUS FOR DRIER HIGH PRESSURE/RIDGING ALOFT TO BE OVER THE
REGION TUE. PREFERRED A CONSENSUS OF MAX/MIN TEMP GUIDANCE WEIGHTED
TOWARD THE NON-GFS MODELS.
&&
.AVIATION...THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY
1135 PM CST TUE MAR 6 2012
MAIN CONCERN REMAINS ON ONSET OF LOW LEVEL SATURATION AND
CORRESPONDING CEILINGS HEIGHTS. FOG PRODUCT SATELLITE
IMAGERY...ALONG WITH SURFACE REPORTS INDICATE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
STRATUS AS FAR SOUTH AS EASTERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. A
SMALL BAND OF CLOUDS WITH CEILINGS AROUND 5K FEET WERE LIFTING
THROUGH CENTRAL IOWA. LATEST RUN OF THE RUC AND NAM MODELS HAVE
BACKED OFF ON MUCH LOW LEVEL SATURATION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WITH SATURATION NOW OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z-18Z WEDNESDAY AT
BOTH TAF SITES. STILL EXPECT CEILINGS TO DROP INTO THE MVFR
CATEGORY AT KLSE AND IFR AT KRST...BUT DELAYED TO AROUND 15Z. COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND LIFT AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN SOME LIGHT RAIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. RAIN SHOULD DIMINISHING BETWEEN 03Z-06Z
THURSDAY...WITH CEILINGS CLIMBING INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AT KRST
AFTER 03Z.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
254 PM CST TUE MAR 6 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION...RABERDING
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1140 PM CST THU MAR 8 2012
.AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH THROUGH AREA NOW WILL TURN WINDS TO THE
NW. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT BUT WILL
SETTLE BACK TO 10KTS TO 20KTS A FEW HOURS AFTER THE FROPA.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FRIDAY MORNING WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN. THE HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY
EVENING ALLOWING WINDS TO TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. ..DLF..
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CST THU MAR 8 2012/
SYNOPSIS...
12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS AN 850MB COLD FRONT FROM SOUTHERN LAKE HURON INTO
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. A BIT MORE IMPRESSIVE IS THE 700MB COLD FRONT
FROM THE MACKINAC STRAITS INTO SOUTHEAST COLORADO. A STRONG LLJ WAS
TRANSPORTING MOISTURE FROM THE GULF COAST INTO NEW ENGLAND. SATELLITE
TRENDS HAVE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY. LOW LEVEL SC/CU WERE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A SHORTWAVE ROTATING ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA TOWARD
WISCONSIN.
18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS THE PRIMARY FRONT FROM TEXAS INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY WITH SEVERAL WEAK TROFS FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. A NEW COLD FRONT WAS DROPPING SOUTH FROM CANADA AND WAS INTO
NORTH DAKOTA AND MINNESOTA. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE TEENS AND 20S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDWEST WHILE 40S AND GREATER DEW POINTS RAN FROM
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...
THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED PV ANOMALY IS MOVING INTO SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN. THESE FEATURES COMBINED WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
HELPED PRODUCE THE STRONG WINDS STARTING AROUND MID DAY. AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES WITH SUNSET THE WINDS WILL DECREASE.
LATER TONIGHT A STORM SYSTEM WILL PASS NORTH OF THE AREA BUT WILL
DRAG ANOTHER COLD FRONT/BOUNDARY THROUGH THE AREA. THUS CLOUDS WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE LATER THIS EVENING. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES...
STRONG SUBSIDENCE SHOULD START BREAKING UP THE CLOUDS PRIOR TO
SUNRISE. THE RUC DOES INDICATE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES GETTING STEEPER
LATE TONIGHT SO THE SUBSIDENCE SHOULD ALLOW WINDS TO PICK UP AGAIN
BEFORE DECREASING AGAIN PRIOR TO SUNRISE.
ON FRIDAY HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA RESULTING IN MUCH
LIGHTER WINDS AND GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES. SUBSIDENCE WILL LIMIT THE
AMOUNT OF MIXING THAT OCCURS BUT THE STRONG MARCH SUN SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO BE SIMILAR TO THURSDAY. ..08..
LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY...
CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH A LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN EVENT LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
OVERALL...INITIALIZATION AND VERIFICATION SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE WITH
SIGNFICANT DISCREPANCIES OF TEXAS CONVECTION. THIS WILL IMPACT THE
TIMING...EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF UPPER LOW FOR LATE SUNDAY. THIS IS
HANDLED ADEQUATELY BY A BLEND OF THE HI-RES ECMWF AND GFS BUT COLD
FRONTAL EVOLUTION SUGGESTS A BIT FASTER TRACK AND QUICKER OCCLUSION
THAT MAY BECOMEM EVIDENT THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH FASTER STARTING OF
RAIN ON SUNDAY AND IN NW SECTIONS...LIGHTER AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITION.
FRIDAY NIGHT...TRIMMED LOWS A FEW DEGREES IN EASTERN SECTIONS DUE TO
LIGHT SE WINDS ALLOWING FOR A BIT OF DECOUPLE UNDER A CLEAR SKY WITH
MIDDLE 20S POSSIBLE FOR LATER SHIFTS AND A DECENTR FROST ALONGAND
EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
SATURDAY...WARMING TREND WITH INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AND
COPIOUS SUNSHINE. UPPED HIGHS TO AROUND 60F WESTERN SECTIONS AND
MIDDLE 50S EAST. IF ENOUGH BL MIXING OCCURS AS SUGGESTED...MAX TEMPS
MAY STILL BE A FEW DEGREES TOO COOL. MINS SATURDAY NIGHT MAY BE
AROUND MIDNIGHT BEFORE HIGH CLOUDS ARRIVE WITH UPPER 30S NORTH AND
LOWER TO POSSIBLY MIDDLE 40S SOUTH SECTIONS.
SUNDAY...AREAS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA WITH
AMOUNTS MOSTLY A QUARTER TO LOCALLY AROUND A HALF INCH. CLOUDS AND
EVAPORATIVE COOLING TO KEEP HIGHS IN THE 50S THAT MAY FALL INTO THE
40S WITH PERIODS OF RAIN. TIMING QUESTION PRECLUDES GOING MORE THAN
LIKELY WITH BULK OF RAIN SUGGESTED BETWEEN 21-09Z ATTM. SUNDAY NIGHT
MINS MILD MOSTLY IN THE MIDDLE 40S DUE TO HIGH DEWPOINTS AND RH
VALUES WITH LIGHT FOG NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR LATER SHIFTS.
MONDAY...CLEARING SKIES WITH ANY RAIN ENDING EARLY. SOUTH WINDS TO
USHER IN MILD GULF OF MEXICO AIR WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S...OR
ABOUT 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MILD AND DRY WITH MORE WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS 65-75F SUGGESTED WITH LOWS 45-55 DEGREES WITH
LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS. WITH ENOUGH BL MIXING...UPPER 70S MAXES
SUGGESTED WHICH ARE RECORD HIGHS FOR THIS PERIOD. RECORD MILD MINS
ARE AROUND 50 DEGREES WHICH MAY ALSO BE THREATENED. ..NICHOLS..
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
444 AM EST FRI MAR 9 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A CLIPPER-TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES WILL
SWING A COLD FRONT AND A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS A FEW FLURRIES NORTH OF I-80 BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
RESIDUAL HIGH CIRRUS IS ESSENTIALLY ALL THAT IS LEFT OF THE COLD
FRONT THAT CROSSED THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED INTO THE 30`S EVERYWHERE THIS MORNING
AND SHOULD BUDGE VERY LITTLE TODAY AS A CLIPPER-TYPE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DROPS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE
MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONT IS RELATIVELY LOW...THE HI-RES MODELS AS
WELL AS THE GFS/NAM SUGGEST THAT A SNOW SHOWERS COULD REACH THE
MOST NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. THE RUC ACTUALLY SUGGESTS
THAT FLURRIES COULD BE POSSIBLE AS FAR SOUTH AS PITTSBURGH BUT FOR
NOW...KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES.
COLD AIR ADVECTION AND NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD BRING INCREASE CLOUD
COVER THIS AFTERNOON. BUFKIT MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO SUGGEST WINDS
COULD GUST ONCE AGAIN CLOSE TO 30MPH THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL APPROACH TONIGHT AND SETTLE OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE U.S FOR THE WEEKEND KEEPING THE AREA DRY. WHILE
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY...THEY WILL MODERATE
WITH A RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW SUNDAY. CLOUD COVER WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE LATE SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PROGGED
TO DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD MONDAY.
FOLLOWED TEMPERATURE TRENDS CLOSE TO MAV/MET GUIDANCE WHICH
BROUGHT THE HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY CLOSE TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE
LOW TRACKING FROM THE MS VALLEY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
MONDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL
REBUILD BY MIDWEEK...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS ON THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GENL VFR IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING AS COLD ADVCTN HAS
NEUTRALIZED AND SFC WIND HAS BACKED TO THE WSW WITH THE APPRCH OF A
SHRTWV ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
THAT DISTURBANCE WL PULL A REINFORCING CDFNT ACRS UPR OHIO VALLEY
TERMINALS BY MIDDAY...REINITIATING COLD ADVECTION AND SPAWNING
MVFR...TO BARELY VFR STRATOCU FOR THE AFTN. IMPROVED LLVL LAPSE
RATES ALSO SUPPORTS WIND GUSTS INTO THE MID/UPR 20S...AS WELL AS THE
CHC FOR SOME SHSN NR FKL AND DUJ.
EXPECT THE COLD REGIME/NW FLOW TO CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY EVE...HENCE
HAVE MAINTAINED A MVFR CIG FORECAST FOR THAT LATE-TAF TIME PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD PROVIDE GENERALLY VFR WEATHER FOR THE
WEEKEND. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
440 AM EST FRI MAR 9 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A CLIPPER-TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES WILL
SWING A COLD FRONT AND A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS A FEW FLURRIES NORTH OF I-80 BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
RESIDUAL HIGH CIRRUS IS ESSENTIALLY ALL THAT IS LEFT OF THE COLD
FRONT THAT CROSSED THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED INTO THE 30`S EVERYWHERE THIS MORNING
AND SHOULD BUDGE VERY LITTLE TODAY AS A CLIPPER-TYPE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DROPS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE
MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONT IS RELATIVELY LOW...THE HI-RES MODELS AS
WELL AS THE GFS/NAM SUGGEST THAT A SNOW SHOWERS COULD REACH THE
MOST NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. THE RUC ACTUALLY SUGGESTS
THAT FLURRIES COULD BE POSSIBLE AS FAR SOUTH AS PITTSBURGH BUT FOR
NOW...KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES.
COLD AIR ADVECTION AND NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD BRING INCREASE CLOUD
COVER THIS AFTERNOON. BUFKIT MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO SUGGEST WINDS
COULD GUST ONCE AGAIN CLOSE TO 30MPH THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL APPROACH TONIGHT AND SETTLE OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE U.S FOR THE WEEKEND KEEPING THE AREA DRY. WHILE
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY...THEY WILL MODERATE
WITH A RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW SUNDAY. CLOUD COVER WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE LATE SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PROGGED
TO DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD MONDAY.
FOLLOWED TEMPERATURE TRENDS CLOSE TO MAV/MET GUIDANCE WHICH
BROUGHT THE HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY CLOSE TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE
LOW TRACKING FROM THE MS VALLEY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
MONDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL
REBUILD BY MIDWEEK...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS ON THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GENL VFR IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING AS
CDFNT/ASSOCIATED SHRA MOVE HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE RIDGES. SFC WIND
WL CONT TO DIMINISH AND BACK TO THE W IN THE PREDAWN HRS AS ANOTHER
SHRTWV CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES.
THAT DISTURBANCE WL PULL A REINFORCING CDFNT ACRS UPR OHIO VALLEY
TERMINALS BY MIDDAY...REINITIATING COLD ADVECTION AND SPAWNING
MVFR...TO BARELY VFR STRATOCU FOR THE AFTN. IMPROVED LLVL LAPSE
RATES ALSO SUPPORTS WIND GUSTS INTO THE MID/UPR 20S.
EXPECT THE COLD REGIME/NW FLOW TO CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY EVE...HENCE
HAVE MAINTAINED A MVFR CIG FORECAST FOR THAT LATE-TAF TIME PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD PROVIDE GENERALLY VFR WEATHER FOR THE
WEEKEND. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
432 AM EST FRI MAR 9 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 425 AM EST FRI MAR 9 2012
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW UPR TROF
STRETCHING FM HUDSON BAY INTO THE GRT LKS DOWNSTREAM OF RDG OVER
WRN NAMERICA. PAIR OF VIGOROUS SHRTWVS DIGGING WITHIN THE UPR TROF
AND OVER ONTARIO AND WI ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A SHARP COLD FNT THAT IS
PUSHING ACRS UPR MI EARLY THIS MRNG AND CAUSED 12-24Z H3 FALLS OVER
200M FM MOOSONEE ONTARIO TO APX. WITH STEEP SFC-H7 LAPSE RATE AND A
GOOD DEAL OF LLVL MSTR SHOWN ON THE 00Z INL RAOB AS WELL AS VIGOROUS
DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC ASSOCIATED MAINLY WITH THE STRONGER WI
SHRTWV/ACCOMPANYING 100KT H5 JET MAX...NMRS SHSN ARE PRECEDING THIS
COLD FROPA. A SHARP PRES RISE CENTER OVER NRN MN BEHIND THIS
DISTURBANCE WITH 3HR PRES RISE UP TO 7MB IS ASSOCIATED WITH VIGOROUS
CAD IN ADVANCE OF H85 THERMAL TROF WITH TEMPS DOWN TO -20C PUSHING
INTO NW ONTARIO. THE ISALLOBARIC WIND WNW WIND IN ADVANCE OF THIS
CENTER IS NEARLY ALIGNED WITH THE GRADIENT NW WIND BEHIND THE COLD
FNT AND HAS RESULTED IN WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 KTS AT SEVERAL OF THE
C-MAN SITES OVER WRN LK SUP. BEHIND THE FNT/THERMAL TROF...12-24Z H3
RISES OVER 200M WERE REPORTED AT THE PAS ONTARIO AND BISMARCK...
INDICATING A PROGRESSIVE UPR FLOW. SFC HI PRES IN ADVANCE OF THE
ROCKIES RDG IS CENTERED OVER NDAKOTA. THE 00Z RAOB FM THE PAS SHOWS
A VERY DRY AIRMASS WITH PWAT 0.07 INCH. THIS DRIER AIR IS SURGING
TOWARD THE UPR LKS...AND AT FCST ISSUANCE THIS DRY AIR APPEARS TO BE
LIMITING LES COVERAGE OVER THE W.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 425 AM EST FRI MAR 9 2012
TDAY...IN THE NEAR TERM...THE SFC COLD FNT WL CLEAR ERY BY FCST
ISSUANCE. AS COLDER/MOISTER H85 AIR SHOWN ON THE 00Z INL/YPL RAOBS
FOLLOW OVER LK SUP...EXPECT LES TO INCRS IN INTENSITY EARLY THIS
MRNG IN THE NW WIND SN BELTS E OF MQT. OVER THE W...THE DRIER AIR
THAT HAS CAUSED QUITE A BIT OF CLRG OVER THE W PORTION OF THE LK WL
LIMIT POPS/ADDITIONAL SN AMOUNTS. THE PRES RISE CENTER IS FCST TO
MOVE JUST TO THE E OF ISLE ROYALE BY 12Z THIS MRNG AND THEN TO JUST
E OF WHITEFISH PT BY 18Z. WITH H925 WINDS UP TO 40-45KTS ACCENTUATED
BY THE ISALLOBARIC WIND AHEAD OF THIS CENTER AND VIGOROUS
CAD/MIXING... EXPECT WIND GUSTS TO REACH NEAR 50 MPH AT EXPOSED
LOCATIONS TO NW WINDS IN ADVANCE OF THIS PRES RISE CENTER. WIND WL
DIMINISH ONCE THE PRES RISE CENTER MOVES TO THE E. SINCE VIGOROUS
DNVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC IS PROGGED TO DVLP OVER THE CWA BY 12Z IN
THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SHRTWV COMPLEX...EXPECT STRONG SUBSIDENCE
THAT IS FCST TO LOWER INVRN AND EVEN DESCEND INTO THE DGZ AS WELL AS
ARRIVAL OF MUCH DRIER LLVL AIR /H925-85 DEWPT DEPRESSIONS 5-10C/ TO
CAUSE THE LES TO DIMINISH FAIRLY QUICKLY W-E. THE TIMING OF THESE
NEGATIVE DYNAMICS/SUBSIDING WINDS/OBSERVED TRENDS SUPPORT THE 12Z
EXPIRATION OF THE HEADLINE FOR THE KEWEENAW. ALTHOUGH THE LONGER
FETCH ACRS LK SUP INTO AREAS E OF MQT WL MAINTAIN SOMEWHAT MORE NMRS
SHSN IN THAT AREA LONGER...OPTED TO CANX THE ADVY FOR THOSE AREAS
AFT 18Z ONCE THE PRES RISE CENTER SHIFTS TO THE E AND WINDS DIMINISH
IN THIS PROGRESSIVE FLOW. OVER THE W AND CNTRL...EXPECT A RETURN OF
SOME SUNSHINE DURING THE AFTN WITH THE SUBSIDENCE/LLVL
DRYING/ARRIVAL OF MORE ACYC FLOW AS SFC HI PRES RDG IS FCST TO REACH
THE CNTRL U.P. BY 00Z. BUT HI TEMPS WL BE WELL BLO NORMAL PER
UPSTREAM HI TEMPS MAINLY IN THE TEENS YDAY IN THE INCOMING AIRMASS
OVER SCNTRL CAN.
TNGT...STRONG WAD PATTERN IS FCST TO SET UP TNGT WITH HI PRES RDG
SHIFTING INTO THE UPR OH RIVER VALLEY UNDER PROGRESSIVE UPR RDG THAT
IS FCST TO RAISE H5 UP TO 80M OVER UPR MI BTWN 00Z-12Z. WITH FALLING
MSLP OVER SCNTRL CAN...S WINDS AT H925 ARE FCST TO INCRS UP 45 TO 50
KT BY 12Z SAT TO THE S OF PRES FALL CENTER PASSING THRU ONTARIO. THE
STRONG WAD IS FCST TO LIFT H85 TEMPS UP TO 7C AT IWD BY DAYBREAK.
ALTHOUGH THIS RETURNING WARM AIR WL SUPPORT A BAND OF CLDS THAT WL
SHIFT W-E ACRS THE UPR LKS...THE INCOMING AIRMASS WL BE FAIRLY DRY
WITH H85 DEWPTS IN THE -10C TO -15C RANGE. SO MODELS APPEAR ON TRACK
SHOWING THE WAD PCPN REMAINING MOSTLY TO THE N OF THE U.P. WITH JUST
A BAND OF THICKER AC/AS INFLUENCING THE CWA. DID RETAIN LO CHC POPS
FOR MAINLY THE NE HALF OF LK SUP. SUSPECT MIN TEMPS WL OCCUR IN THE
EVNG...WITH THE LOWEST READINGS OVER THE E IN THE EVNG. BUT TEMPS
SHOULD RISE OVERNGT WITH STRENGTHENING WINDS/RETURN OF MUCH WARMER
AIR.
SAT...WITH WARM FNT SHIFTING TO THE NE...CWA WL BE IN THE WARM
SECTOR WITH H85 TEMPS FCST IN THE 6-9C RANGE. DRYNESS OF THE
INCOMING AIRMASS SUGS POTENTIAL FOR LO CLDS IS MINIMAL. MIXING TO
JUST H9 ON GFS/NAM FCST SDNGS SUG MAX TEMPS WL PEAK IN THE 50S WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. A STRONG WSW WIND WITH H925 SPEEDS UP TO 35 KT
WL ENHANCE DOWNSLOPE WARMING BTWN BARAGA AND MQT. AREAS OVER THE E
DOWNWIND OF LK MI WL BE COOLEST.
SAT NGT...WITH WEAKENING PRES GRADIENT/DIMINISHING WINDS/MOCLR SKIES
UNDER BLDG UPR RDG IN THE GRT LKS...EXPECT A HEALTHY DIURNAL TEMP
FALL. BUT MIN TEMPS WL STILL BE WELL ABV NORMAL WITH UNSEASONABLY
WARM AIRMASS STILL IN PLACE.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 AM EST FRI MAR 9 2012
STILL ON TRACK TO HAVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SFC LOW OVR THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TO LIFT NORTHEAST AND BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN TO THE UPR LAKES.
MODELS SEEM TO BE LATCHING ONTO A SLOWER TIMING COMPARED TO RUNS FM
THE LAST COUPLE DAYS. BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN SUGGESTS A DRY
FCST FOR SUNDAY. GFS FCST SOUNDINGS AND RH FIELDS FM GFS/ECMWF POINT
TO ABRUPT ARRIVAL OF DEEPER MOISTURE/PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY NIGHT.
RESULT IS A GOOD DISPLAY OF SUNSHINE FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY. MIXING TO
925-900MB INDICATES HIGHS WELL INTO THE 50S FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN
HALF OF CWA. SFC WINDS ARE MAINLY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE
LOW WOULD KEEP MORE LAKE MODIFIED AIR/TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 40S OVR
EASTERN CWA AND ACROSS TIP OF KEWEENAW PENINSULA. RAIN FCST TO BEGIN
TO SPREAD IN FM THE SOUTH ON SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT HAVE DELAYED LIKELY
POPS UNTIL MONDAY WITH ARRIVAL OF UPR LOW AND HIGHER H85 DWPNTS.
RAISED MINS ON SUNDAY NIGHT TO 35-40F GIVEN INCREASING SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND MOISTURE ADVECTION.
IN THE EXTENDED...WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT /MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE
AMOUNTS/ CONTINUES TO COME INTO FOCUS ON MONDAY AND PERHAPS EVEN INTO
MONDAY EVENING. GFS/ECMWF HAVE DEFINITELY TRENDED TOWARD THE SLOWER
PROGRESSION OF THE CANADIAN...NOT EXITING POPS OVER CWA UNTIL MONDAY
EVENING. RAIN AMOUNTS WITH THE SYSTEM PROBABLY WILL END UP FM
0.25-0.50 INCH AS GFS/ECMWF SHOW STRONGEST H85 MOISTURE ADVECTION
JUST GRAZING THE CWA TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. AT THIS POINT...APPEARS
STEADIEST RAIN WILL OCCUR MONDAY MORNING INTO MID MONDAY AFTN. TEMPS
WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL BUT SHOULD BE HELD MAINLY IN THE 40S ON
MONDAY DUE TO THE CLOUDS/RAIN. MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE
MONDAY EVENING THEN SHARP DRYING ALOFT OCCURS AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY
NIGHT. AS LONG AS WINDS ARE NOT TOO STRONG...COULD SEE FOG FORM LATER
MONDAY NIGHT OVER CWA IN WAKE OF THE RAIN SHOWERS.
TUESDAY LOOKING DRY WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY. SFC
RIDGE IS OVER THE AREA SO LK BREEZES SHOULD FORM AND TRIED TO PUT
THIS IN GRIDS. MIXING TO H9 PROBABLY PRETTY GOOD BET WITH EXPECTED
SUNSHINE AND THAT GIVES HIGHS WELL INTO THE 50S IF NOT REACHING 60
DEGREES INLAND TOWARD WI BORDER.
SW FLOW INCREASES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF FAIRLY WELL
AGREED UPON TROUGH ADVANCING INTO UPR LAKES. SHOULD BE QUITE WARM
AHEAD OF TROUGH WITH DWPNTS INTO THE 40S AND MAYBE CLOSING IN ON 50
DEGREES IN THE WARM SECTOR. MIXING TO 925MB IS CONSERVATIVE IN SUCH A
SITUATION AND STILL RESULTED IN TEMPS AROUND 60F. IF CLOUDS AHEAD OF
TROUGH TAKE LONGER TO FORM COULD SEE MANY AREAS IN WESTERN HALF OF
CWA PUSHING WELL INTO THE 60S. COORD WITH GRB AND DLH TO INCREASE MAX
TEMPS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH. YDY MODELS WERE JUST
BEGINNING TO PICK UP ON THE TROUGH...BUT NOW ARE TRYING TO BREAK OUT
SOME QPF AHEAD OF TROUGH. LAPSE RATES ARE STEEP AND SI/S FCST TO FALL
BLO 0C. TRYING TO PIN DOWN DETAILS IN PATTERN KIND OF TOUGH BUT FOR
WHAT IT IS WORTH WARM SECTOR FM UPR MI INTO WI/LOWER MICHIGAN IS
WITHIN RIGHT ENTRANCE JET REGION FORCING. ENOUGH EVIDENCE THERE TO
INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR MOST CWA. IF CURRENT EXPLICIT
GUIDANCE FM GFS AND ECMWF IS CORRECT THEN MAJORITY OF CONVECTION
WOULD OCCUR MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF CWA. HOWEVER IF THE FRONT SLOWS
DOWN JUST A BIT THEN CONVECTION WOULD AFFECT MORE OF THE CWA AS FRONT
WOULD SLIDE THROUGH DURING PEAK HEATING. SPREAD SLIGHT CHANCES /NOTE
THESE DO NOT SHOW UP IN MOST OF OUR FORECAST PRODUCTS BEYOND DAY 3/
FARTHER WEST THAN CONSENSUS GUIDANCE SHOWS. HIGHER CHANCES AT THIS
POINT ONLY OVR FAR EASTERN CWA. BUBBLE HIGH BUILDS IN FOR THURSDAY
WITH DRY WEATHER AND TEMPS STILL RUNNING AOA NORMAL.
AS MENTIONED IN RECENT DISCUSSIONS...THE PROLONGED PERIOD OF WARM
TEMPS/HIGHER DWPNTS AND EVEN SOME RAIN RESULTS IN MOST OF THE
SNOWPACK LIKELY MELTING BY THIS TIME NEXT WEEK. DAYSHIFT ON THURSDAY
ISSUED A HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK WITH DETAILS /ARBESFMQT/. OUR OFFICE
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SNOWMELT AND POTENTIAL AFFECTS ON AREA
RIVERS/STREAMS AND OTHER LOW-LYING AREAS THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1156 PM EST THU MAR 8 2012
DISTURBANCE AND STRONG COLD FRONT WILL EXIT TO THE SE OVERNIGHT.
STRONG/GUSTY NW WINDS BEHIND FRONT WILL FAVOR KCMX FOR THE WORST
CONDITIONS. WITH WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 35KT...-SHSN/BLSN WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN LIFR CONDITIONS THERE FOR A FEW HRS INITIALLY. IFR
CONDITIONS WILL START THE PERIOD AT KIWD. CONDITIONS AT KCMX/KIWD
WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE OVERNIGHT AS DRIER AIR/SUBSIDENCE BEHIND
DISTURBANCE WORKS TO DIMINISH LAKE EFFECT -SHSN. WHILE KIWD WILL
IMPROVE TO MVFR...GUSTY WINDS/BLSN MAY MAINTAIN IFR CONDITIONS THRU
THE NIGHT AT KCMX. AT KSAW...CONDITIONS MAY BE QUITE VARIABLE OVER
THE NEXT FEW HRS. ALTHOUGH MVFR SHOULD GENERALLY PREVAIL...HEAVIER
SHSN FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS MAY BRING BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR. WITH
APPROACHING HIGH PRES BACKING WINDS/START OF WAA...MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE TO VFR EARLY AFTN AT KIWD AND BY LATE AFTN AT
KCMX/KSAW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 425 AM EST FRI MAR 9 2012
WITH NW WINDS JUST OFF THE LAKE SURFACE UP TO 45 KTS AND COLD AIR
BLOWING OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM LK WATERS...EXPECT A HI END GALE
EVENT AT LEAST OVER THE E HALF EARLY THIS MRNG. THERE COULD EVEN BE
SOME WIND GUSTS TOWARD STORM FORCE. THE APPROACH OF HI PRES FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS HAS ALREADY CAUSED WINDS TO DIMINISH OVER THE W...
AND THIS HI WILL BRING DIMINISHING WINDS TO THE E AS WELL BY LATER
THIS MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF HI WAVES/VERY COLD TEMPS WILL ALSO
CAUSE SOME HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY...BUT THIS WILL DIMINISH WITH THE
WINDS. AFTER A FAIRLY TRANQUIL EVENING...EXPECT A S GALE TONIGHT
INTO SAT OVER MAINLY THE E HALF AS THE PRES GRADIENT SHARPENS
BETWEEN THE DEPARTING HI AND LO PRES MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA.
BUT SINCE GALE HEADLINES ARE ALREADY OUT IN THIS AREA...WL NOT ISSUE
ANOTHER HEADLINE FOR NOW. THE ARRIVAL OF A WEAKER PRES GRADIENT WL
CAUSE DIMINISHING WINDS LATER SAT/SAT NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
FM THE PLAINS INTO UPR LAKES ON MONDAY WILL BRING INCREASE IN WINDS...BUT
SPEEDS SHOULD STAY BLO 30 KTS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MIZ001-
003.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MIZ006-007-085.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ249>251-266-
267.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ THIS
MORNING FOR LSZ162-240>242-263.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
LSZ243>245-248-264-265.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LSZ243>245-248-264-
265.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST /5 AM CST/ EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
LSZ240>242-263.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KC
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KC/JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
303 AM EST FRI MAR 9 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...BRINGING SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITH COOLING AND CLEARING TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. FAIR AND
WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE MAINTAINS A MILD CIRCULATION OVER THE AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...PICTURES FROM SPACE SHOW A COLD FRONT MOVING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS MORNING. MOSAIC RADAR LOOPS
SHOW A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN STUDDED WITH MODERATE SHOWERS ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. REPORTING STATIONS WERE AVERAGING 0.10 INCH-
PER-HOUR RAIN AMOUNTS WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TALLIES NOTED. TIMING
WISE...THE FRONT SHOULD BE AT OUR INTERIOR MID TO LATE MORNING
THEN ACROSS THE COAST IN THE EARLY AND MID AFTERNOON. LIMITED
STRENGTH AND INSTABILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM DICTATES CONVECTION BUT
NO THUNDER. HISTORICALLY THE BRUNT OF RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM
HAS REMAINED AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
WITH CLOUDS QUICKLY MOVING AND LITTLE INSOLATION EXPECTED THINK
WE CAN KEEP MAXIMUM TEMPS HELD IN THE 60S TODAY. SHARP MID AND LOW
LEVEL DRYING OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY WILL BRING CLEARING BY
DAYBREAK. THIS COUPLED WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION OVERNIGHT SHOULD
YIELD UPPER 30S INLAND AND NORTH...TO THE LOWER AND MID 40S EAST
AND SOUTH ZONES AT FIRST LIGHT OF SATURDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...A COOL...BUT SUNNY AND QUIET WKND ON TAP FOR
THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA
SATURDAY MORNING...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH FROM
THE MID-ATLANTIC CREATING COOL NE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. 850MB
TEMPS WILL ONLY REACH AROUND 3C...BUT SINCE MIXING WILL NOT EVEN
REACH THIS LEVEL LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES ARE A BETTER PREDICTOR OF MAX
TEMPS SATURDAY...AND 1000-900MB THICKNESSES SUPPORT MAX TEMPS MORE
TYPICAL OF MID JANUARY THAN EARLY MARCH...MID 50S NORTH TO LOW 60S
SOUTH. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL SETTLE DOWN INTO THE MID 30S MOST
LOCATIONS...WITH JUST ENOUGH WIND TO PREVENT IDEAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING. A FEW COOL SPOTS MAY DROP AS LOW AS 30 THOUGH...AND SOME
FROST OR A LIGHT FREEZE IS POSSIBLE EARLY SUNDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS OFFSHORE DURING SUNDAY ALLOWING WINDS TO VEER
TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AND ADVECT WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION.
TEMPS RECOVER TO NEAR CLIMO FOR BOTH MAX AND MIN WITH ANOTHER DAY OF
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...A PATTERN MORE TYPICAL OF EARLY SUMMER IS
PROGGED TO DEVELOP EARLY WEEK AND PERSIST THROUGH THE EXTENDED...AS
UPPER RIDGING AND SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE BECOME ENTRENCHED ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST.
UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS MONDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...AND GUIDANCE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE RIDGE AXIS WILL ELONGATE SW-TO-NE ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HEIGHTS EXCEEDING 580DM. THIS
RIDGE FLATTENS A BIT TUE/WED AS POTENT SHORTWAVE PUSHES A FRONT
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC. THIS FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO GET CLOSE TO
OUR AREA...AND BELIEVE THE ECMWF DEPICTION OF PRECIP TUE NIGHT IS
OVERDONE SINCE IT WILL BE QUITE DIFFICULT TO OVERCOME THE STRONG
UPPER RIDGE AND PERSISTENT SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. WILL KEEP SCHC POP
TUE/WED FOR POTENTIAL THOUGH...AND THIS WILL BE THE ONLY RAIN
CHANCES IN THE EXTENDED. 500MB HEIGHTS REBUILD WED/THU...AND HPC
DEPICTS ANOMALIES OF 100M OR MORE IN THE DAYS 3-8 TIME FRAME. THIS
COMBINED WITH 850MB TEMPS RISING TO 10C OR HIGHER THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK SUPPORTS SURFACE HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S EACH DAY AWAY FROM
THE BEACHES...WITH LOWS ONLY AROUND 50.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...LATEST RUC AND NAM SLOW DOWN THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF
THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH
CATEGORICAL POPS DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON
FROM THE INLAND TERMINALS TO THE COAST. HAVE MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST SLOWING DOWN THE PRECIP AND KEEPING
CEILINGS VFR TIL ABOUT 09Z ACROSS THE INLAND TERMINALS AND 12Z ALONG
THE COAST AND THEN DOWN TO MVFR FOR THE TERMINALS...AFTER 15Z
MENTION CHANCE IFR FOR LBT AND FLO IN CEILINGS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE
WITH FROPA FROM WEST TO EAST STARTING AFTER 18Z INLAND AND AFTER 21Z
NEAR THE COAST. WILL MENTION PROB GROUP ALONG THE COAST TIL ABOUT
10/00Z AS PRECIP LINGERS NEAR THE COAST AND COULD IMPACT THE
TERMINALS. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE WEST AND EVENTUALLY NORTH WITH THE
FROPA DURING THE DAY.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE FOR MORNING FOG MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FLAGS IN PLACE FOR SE
WAVES OF 4-6 FEET IN 8-9 SECOND INTERVALS. THE FETCH THAT PRODUCED
THIS ENERGY IN NO LONGER CONTRIBUTING AND WINDS WILL EASE THROUGH
THE MORNING. THUS THINK BY MIDDAY WE CAN DROP THE SEA ADVISORY AS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS DECREASE. WE MAY NEED AN ADVISORY TONIGHT
FOR GUSTY N WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT A CAUTION STATEMENT MAY
BE CONSIDERED DUE TO MARGINAL NATURE. BUMPY SEAS TONIGHT AS N-NW
WINDS TEAR ACROSS RESIDUAL SE WAVE ENERGY. NO TSTMS EXPECTED ON
THE WATERS WITH THIS SYSTEM. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM WSW TO NNW IN
THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...GUSTY NE WINDS TO START THE PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN THE COAST BEHIND A COLD FRONT. THESE WINDS WILL
CREATE SEAS OF 5-7 FT THROUGH SAT AFTN EXCEPT IN THE FAVORED
SHADOWED AREA SW OF FRYING PAN SHOALS...AND AN ONGOING SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH SAT NIGHT BEFORE SEAS FALL TO
3-5 FT EARLY SUNDAY. THE WAVE SPECTRUM WILL INITIALLY BE DOMINATED
BY LARGE NE WIND WAVES...BUT AS WINDS EASE DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE
RETREATING OFFSHORE...THE RESIDUAL SE SWELL WILL BECOME MORE
NOTICEABLE. ON SUNDAY...WINDS FALL TO LESS THAN 10 KTS AND BECOME
MORE EASTERLY. EVEN WITH THE VERY LIGHT WINDS...SEAS WILL REMAIN 3-4
FT...MOSTLY DUE TO A 3FT/10SEC SE SWELL.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...FAIRLY UNIFORM WIND AND WAVE CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE SITTING
OFFSHORE CREATES SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS...BUT AT
SPEEDS LESS THAN 10 KTS. THIS CREATES VERY WEAK WIND WAVES OF ONLY
1-2 FT ON TOP OF A CONTINUING...BUT SLIGHTLY DECAYING...3 FT SE
SWELL. THESE COMBINE TO CREATE 3-4 FT SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-
256.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...MJC/MAC
MARINE...MJC/JDW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1239 AM EST FRI MAR 9 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...BRINGING SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITH COOLING AND CLEARING TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. FAIR AND
WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE MAINTAINS A MILD CIRCULATION OVER THE AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 9:50 PM THURSDAY...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENT ZONE PRODUCED LIGHT
SHOWERS ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES THIS EVENING...AND THESE WILL
AFFECT THE NEW HANOVER COAST FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...SSW FLOW WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT AND HOLD DEWPOINTS AND LOW TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S
MOST AREAS. CHANCE OF RAIN WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT...AND BASED
ON LATEST RADAR MOSAIC...DONT EXPECT ACTIVITY TO MAKE IT INTO THE
CWA UNTIL PROBABLY AFTER 09Z.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT PLOWING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
MIDWESTERN STATES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN CAROLINAS DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY...USHERING IN A MUCH COLDER CANADIAN AIRMASS FOR
THE WEEKEND. DEEP MOISTURE CURRENTLY ON AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL ADVECT EAST AND OUR PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL INCREASE
TO AROUND 1.4 INCHES BY 18Z FRIDAY. SYNOPTIC LIFT WILL BE THE
LIMITING FACTOR CONCERNING HOW MUCH OF THIS MOISTURE ACTUALLY GETS
SQUEEZED OUT AS MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. THE 300 MB JET STREAK
CURRENTLY ENHANCING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL PEEL OUT TO THE NORTHEAST...REMAINING TOO FAR NORTH TO
HELP US OUT IN THE CAROLINAS. A WEAK 500 MB DISTURBANCE WELL SOUTH
OF THE STRONG VORTICITY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS FRIDAY...WITH AT LEAST
SEVERAL HOURS OF NVA AND IMPLIED SINKING MOTION FOLLOWING THE
DISTURBANCE. INSTABILITY APPEARS VERY LIMITED (IF NOT ZERO
ALTOGETHER) AS MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE AT OR LESS THAN MOIST-
ADIABATIC THROUGHOUT THE EVENT...AND LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES NEVER
BECOME GREAT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE NEAR-SURFACE BASED CAPE.
ALL THIS POINTS TO MID-RANGE POPS WITH LOW QPF...NOT TOO
DISSIMILAR TO OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST. FORECAST POPS RANGE FROM 70
PERCENT IN THE LUMBERTON-BENNETTSVILLE AREA TO AROUND 50 PERCENT
FROM MYRTLE BEACH TO GEORGETOWN...WITH LESS THAN TWO-TENTHS OF AN
INCH OF RAIN FORECAST ANYWHERE.
SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT AS 1038 MB HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST DROPS SOUTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
SATURDAY EVENING...WITH CHILLY NORTH WINDS TURNING NORTHEASTERLY
SATURDAY NIGHT.
GIVEN THE LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED FRIDAY I LIKE THE
PREVIOUS FORECASTS IDEA OF FRIDAY HIGHS WELL ABOVE THE 12Z GFS
MOS...GENERALLY MID TO UPPER 60S. AN IMPRESSIVE SHOT OF COLD
ADVECTION FRIDAY NIGHT WILL DROP LOWS INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE STUCK IN THE 50S DESPITE FULL
SUNSHINE. AS WINDS DIE AWAY SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE
30S...WITH THE FAVORED COLD SPOTS IN SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
LIKELY RECEIVING FROST IF NOT FREEZING TEMPERATURES.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE JUST TO OUR WEST ON
SUNDAY WHILE SURFACE HIGH RIDGES INTO THE CAROLINAS FROM POINTS
NORTH AND EAST. END RESULT WILL BE A FAIRLY DRY COLUMN SAVE FOR A
THIN LAYER OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE (PROBABLY SCATTERED CU AND SC) AND
NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPS. THESE FEATURES TRANSLATE EASTWARD BY MONDAY
PAVING THE WAY FOR WARM ADVECTION AND A RETURN OF 70 DEGREE WARMTH.
MUCH OF THIS WILL HOLD TRUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK ALTHOUGH
THE MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE DECREASING IN AMPLITUDE/STRENGTH. BY
THURSDAY THE RIDGE MAY HAVE BROKEN DOWN ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME
WEAK SHORTWAVES TO START CROSSING THE REGION. THIS PAIRED WITH WEAK
MOISTURE ADVECTION THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD SHOULD LEAD TO
INCREASED CLOUDINESS BUT SEEMINGLY NOT ANY MENTIONABLE RAINFALL
CHANCES.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...LATEST RUC AND NAM SLOW DOWN THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF
THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH
CATEGORICAL POPS DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON
FROM THE INLAND TERMINALS TO THE COAST. HAVE MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST SLOWING DOWN THE PRECIP AND KEEPING
CEILINGS VFR TIL ABOUT 09Z ACROSS THE INLAND TERMINALS AND 12Z ALONG
THE COAST AND THEN DOWN TO MVFR FOR THE TERMINALS...AFTER 15Z
MENTION CHANCE IFR FOR LBT AND FLO IN CEILINGS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE
WITH FROPA FROM WEST TO EAST STARTING AFTER 18Z INLAND AND AFTER 21Z
NEAR THE COAST. WILL MENTION PROB GROUP ALONG THE COAST TIL ABOUT
10/00Z AS PRECIP LINGERS NEAR THE COAST AND COULD IMPACT THE
TERMINALS. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE WEST AND EVENTUALLY NORTH WITH THE
FROPA DURING THE DAY.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE FOR MORNING FOG MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 9:50 PM THURSDAY...BUOY OBS CONTINUE TO SHOW SEAS IN THE 4
TO 6 FT RANGE A RESULT OF PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND
OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL REMAIN 15 KT OR LESS
IN A RATHER MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE 6 FT SWELL.
OTHERWISE...LIGHT SHOWERS FROM CAPE FEAR TO SURF CITY WILL MOVE
QUICKLY OFF TO THE NE THROUGH MIDNIGHT. NEXT ROUND OF PRECIP WILL
BE OCCURRING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND WILL LIKELY
HOLD OFF UNTIL AT LEAST SUNRISE FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...A RATHER IMPRESSIVE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MODEST
SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BECOME A STRONGER
NORTHEAST WIND FRIDAY NIGHT AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DROPS
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE CAROLINAS. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY EVENING WITH A GRADUAL VEERING AND
DECREASE IN OUR WINDS.
BOTH THE NOAA WAVEWATCH AND OUR LOCAL SWAN WAVE MODELS SHOW THE
SUBSTANTIAL SOUTHEAST SWELL WE HAVE TODAY WILL CONTINUE INTO
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL ONLY A SMALL REDUCTION IN WAVE HEIGHT AND
NO CHANGE IN PERIOD...CURRENTLY OBSERVED AND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
AT 9-10 SECONDS. THIS COULD BRING 6-FOOT SEAS TO THE OUTER
PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS ALMOST THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE PERIOD
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY REGARDLESS OF WHAT THE SYNOPTIC WEATHER IS
DOING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS APPEAR MOST LIKELY FRIDAY
NIGHT WHEN THE STRONGEST PERIOD OF NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO ADD A STEEP CHOP ON TOP OF THE SWELL.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING NORTHEAST FROM THE
CAROLINAS TO BRING AN ONSHORE FLOW ON SUNDAY THAT WILL VEER AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES. SOME RESIDUAL EASTERLY SWELL WILL COMBINE WITH THE
WIND WAVE FOR A POSSIBLE NEED FOR CAUTIONARY HEADLINES TO START THE
PERIOD. THIS WILL WANE AS THE DAY WEARS ON AND THE GRADIENT AND
SWELL BOTH RELAX. THE HIGH WILL MOVE WELL OFFSHORE BY MONDAY
BRINGING A TURN TO THE SOUTH AND A FURTHER SETTLING OF THE SEAS AS
THE SWELL ENERGY CONTINUES TO ABATE. THE RETURN FLOW REGIME WILL
LAST INTO TUESDAY WITH PERHAPS A VEER FROM S TO SW.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
AMZ250-252-254-256.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...CRM/MJC
SHORT TERM...TRA
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MAC/MJC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
307 AM CST FRI MAR 9 2012
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
IN THE NEAR TERM...THE NAM/GFS AND TO SOME EXTENT THE HRRR SHOW
SOME LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS MORNING...PER 925MB
RELATIVE HUMIDITY FIELDS. HOWEVER...THE FOG/STRATUS LOOP CONTINUES
TO DOWNPLAY ANY DEVELOPMENT...THUS WILL SKEW THE EARLY MORNING
FORECAST TO MAINLY CLEAR EXCEPT IN THE NORTHEAST WHERE A BAND OF
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM THROUGH.
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS 3MB/3HR PRESSURE FALLS MAXIMIZED
OVER EASTERN ALBERTA AND WESTERN SASKATCHEWAN...AND INTO EASTERN
MONTANA. THIS IS COINCIDING/INDICATIVE OF RISING MOTION ALONG AND
AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA. THE WARM FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY MORNING...PUTTING
THEM IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR THE AFTERNOON. THE WARM FRONT LOOKS TO
MAKE ITS WAY INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES LOOK TRICKY ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY. THE
NAM/GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW A SHALLOW MIXED LAYER ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT WHICH INCLUDES KMOT/KBIS/KJMS...WITH A
DEEPER MIXED LAYER BEHIND THE FRONT FOR KISN/KDIK. HAVE USED THE
ALLBLEND TO ADJUST TEMPERATURES...WARMEST IN THE WEST BEHIND THE
FRONT AND COOLER READINGS HEADING EAST...ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
WARM FRONT. EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH DEVELOPING
BEHIND THE WARM FRONT IN THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON.
FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WARM TEMPERATURES DOMINATING.
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EXTENDED PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST TONIGHT AND USED A BLEND OF MODELS FOR THE GRIDS.
STRONG RIDGING IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN
PLAINS DURING THE BEGINNING OF EXTENDED SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
THE RIDGE SLOWLY FLATTENS AS SPLIT FLOW OFF SHORE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
GUIDES WEAK SHORTWAVES UP AND OVER THE RIDGE. CUT OFF LOW IN THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST MOVES SLOWLY EAST IN SOUTHERN FLOW.
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW BEGINS TO EJECT BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND FLOW BECOMES
SOUTHWEST OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND WESTERN DAKOTAS. HOWEVER THE
SURFACE LOW WHICH DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO MID LEVEL ENERGY MOVES
WELL NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER AND THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY AND
MILD THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
A SECOND SHORTWAVE MOVES NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE
PROVINCES ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH PERHAPS SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE WAVE...BUT AGAIN MAIN ENERGY
AND SURFACE LOW IS WELL NORTH OF THE BORDER. RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AGAIN BY END OF THE WORK WEEK.
MAINLY DRY FORECAST WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
&&
.AVIATION...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH BAND OF MID CLOUD EXTENDED
FROM CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA NORTH THROUGH EASTERN SASKATCHEWAN.
MODELS HINT AT SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DEVELOPING IN SOUTHEAST
SURFACE FLOW BUT NO REFLECTION OF THAT AS OF NOW. HRRR HAS NARROW
BAND OF LIFR BETWEEN BISMARCK AND DICKINSON BUT 12Z TAFS WILL NOT
REFLECT THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FORECAST UNLESS SOMETHING
MATERIALIZES BEFORE ISSUE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER INDICES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHWEST TODAY. HOWEVER FIRE MANAGEMENT OFFICERS REPORT THAT THE
GRASSLANDS AND GROUND ARE TOO MOIST TO SUPPORT RED FLAG CRITERIA
AT THIS TIME...POSSIBLY IN ANOTHER WEEK THESE CONDITIONS MIGHT
CHANGE. THUS WILL HIGHLIGHT THE VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER INDICES IN
THE HWO.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/FIRE WEATHER...KS
LONG TERM....HW
AVIATION...HW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ABERDEEN SD
1132 PM CST THU MAR 8 2012
.UPDATE...
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF ND THIS
AFTERNOON. COMBINED WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE DAKOTAS TONIGHT AND SNOW COVER ON THE
GROUND...TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS IN
THE EAST. WHERE GROUND IS BARE...EXPECT LOWS TO DROP INTO THE
UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH BETWEEN 0Z AND 03Z AFTER THE FROPA. UNTIL THEN
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE BETWEEN 21Z AND 0Z. MOST AREAS WILL STAY
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA..THOUGH THE 17Z RUC INDICATES THAT CORSON
COUNTY AND LOCAL AREAS IN THE FAR NORTHEAST CORNER MAY BRIEFLY SEE
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 MPH. DECIDED THE IMPACT WAS NOT SUFFICIENT
ENOUGH TO MERIT AN ADVISORY. AT THIS POINT SNOW PACK IS WET AND
HEAVY ENOUGH TO LIMIT ANY BLOWING SNOW.
WITH DRY WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND CONTINUING THROUGH
SATURDAY...WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
IN SNOW FREE AREAS ACROSS CENTRAL SD. EXPECT SURFACE TEMPS TO CLIMB
INTO THE LOWER 50S IN THE EAST TO LOWER 70S IN SOUTHCENTRAL SD BY
SATURDAY AS H85 TEMPS RISE TO NEAR +13.
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
AS THE PERIOD OPENS...THERE IS A LONGWAVE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
POSITIONED OVER THE WESTERN CONUS /ESPECIALLY THE PAC NW/ AND A
CUT-OFF LOW SPINNING/MEANDERING OVER THE DESERT SW. BY
MONDAY...THIS CUT-OFF LOW IS FINALLY EJECTING OUT OF THE SWRN
CONUS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. TEMP-WISE...CURRENT
SOLUTIONS SUGGEST IT WILL BE WARM ENOUGH THAT ANY PRECIPITATION
COMING INTO THE FAR EASTERN CWA SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS LOW WOULD BE RAIN. THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG
TERM SEES THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST REPOSITION TO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES/EASTERN CONUS...WHILE A BROAD LONGWAVE TROF
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WEST COAST WITH VARIOUS TRANSIENT S/WS PROGGED
TO WORK INLAND ACROSS WASHINGTON..IDAHO AND MONTANA BEFORE BEING
REDIRECTED NORTH AND EAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHERN MN AND SC
CANADA. LARGELY...THIS CWA IS NOT EXPECTED TO RECEIVE MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION BETWEEN MONDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. OTHER THAN A COLD
FRONT PROGGED TO PASS THROUGH WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT BRINGING A
TEMPORARY COOL DOWN...THERE SEEMS TO BE NO END IN SIGHT TO
MILD...UNSEASONABLY WARM /MUCH ABOVE NORMAL/ AIR OVER THE CWA NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. LIGHT NELY WINDS
LATE THIS EVENING WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO SOUTHERLY BY SUNRISE
FRIDAY. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS ARE
EXPECTED BY MID TO LATE MORNING AT ALL TERMINALS.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CHURCH
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...CHURCH
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
827 AM EST FRI MAR 9 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A CLIPPER-TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES WILL
SWING A COLD FRONT AND A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS A FEW SNOW SHOWERS NORTH OF I-80 BEFORE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A CLIPPER-TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DROP A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE REGION BY THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONT IS
RELATIVELY LOW...THE HI-RES MODELS AS WELL AS THE GFS/NAM SUGGEST
THAT A SNOW SHOWERS COULD REACH THE MOST NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS
AFTERNOON. THE RUC ACTUALLY SUGGESTS THAT FLURRIES COULD BE
POSSIBLE AS FAR SOUTH AS PITTSBURGH BUT FOR NOW...KEPT LOW CHANCE
POPS MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES.
COLD AIR ADVECTION AND NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD BRING INCREASED CLOUD
COVER THIS AFTERNOON. BUFKIT MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO SUGGEST WINDS
COULD GUST ONCE AGAIN CLOSE TO 35 MPH THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL APPROACH TONIGHT AND SETTLE OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE U.S FOR THE WEEKEND KEEPING THE AREA DRY. WHILE
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY...THEY WILL MODERATE
WITH A RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW SUNDAY. CLOUD COVER WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE LATE SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PROGGED
TO DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD MONDAY.
FOLLOWED TEMPERATURE TRENDS CLOSE TO MAV/MET GUIDANCE WHICH
BROUGHT THE HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY CLOSE TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE
LOW TRACKING FROM THE MS VALLEY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
MONDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL
REBUILD BY MIDWEEK...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS ON THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING AS COLD ADVECTION HAS
NEUTRALIZED AND SURFACE WIND HAS BACKED TO THE WSW WITH THE
APPROACH OF A SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
THAT DISTURBANCE WILL PULL A REINFORCING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
TERMINALS BY MIDDAY...REINITIATING COLD ADVECTION AND SPAWNING
MVFR TO VFR STRATOCU FOR THE AFTERNOON. INCREASED LAPSE RATES
SHOULD SUPPORT WIND GUSTS TO 25KT...AS WELL AS THE CHANCE FOR
SOME SNOW SHOWERS NEAR KFKL AND KDUJ. EXPECT THE COLD NW FLOW TO
CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING...HENCE HAVE MAINTAINED A MVFR FORECAST
FOR LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD PROVIDE GENERALLY VFR WEATHER FOR THE
WEEKEND. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
559 AM EST FRI MAR 9 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 425 AM EST FRI MAR 9 2012
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW UPR TROF
STRETCHING FM HUDSON BAY INTO THE GRT LKS DOWNSTREAM OF RDG OVER
WRN NAMERICA. PAIR OF VIGOROUS SHRTWVS DIGGING WITHIN THE UPR TROF
AND OVER ONTARIO AND WI ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A SHARP COLD FNT THAT IS
PUSHING ACRS UPR MI EARLY THIS MRNG AND CAUSED 12-24Z H3 FALLS OVER
200M FM MOOSONEE ONTARIO TO APX. WITH STEEP SFC-H7 LAPSE RATE AND A
GOOD DEAL OF LLVL MSTR SHOWN ON THE 00Z INL RAOB AS WELL AS VIGOROUS
DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC ASSOCIATED MAINLY WITH THE STRONGER WI
SHRTWV/ACCOMPANYING 100KT H5 JET MAX...NMRS SHSN ARE PRECEDING THIS
COLD FROPA. A SHARP PRES RISE CENTER OVER NRN MN BEHIND THIS
DISTURBANCE WITH 3HR PRES RISE UP TO 7MB IS ASSOCIATED WITH VIGOROUS
CAD IN ADVANCE OF H85 THERMAL TROF WITH TEMPS DOWN TO -20C PUSHING
INTO NW ONTARIO. THE ISALLOBARIC WIND WNW WIND IN ADVANCE OF THIS
CENTER IS NEARLY ALIGNED WITH THE GRADIENT NW WIND BEHIND THE COLD
FNT AND HAS RESULTED IN WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 KTS AT SEVERAL OF THE
C-MAN SITES OVER WRN LK SUP. BEHIND THE FNT/THERMAL TROF...12-24Z H3
RISES OVER 200M WERE REPORTED AT THE PAS ONTARIO AND BISMARCK...
INDICATING A PROGRESSIVE UPR FLOW. SFC HI PRES IN ADVANCE OF THE
ROCKIES RDG IS CENTERED OVER NDAKOTA. THE 00Z RAOB FM THE PAS SHOWS
A VERY DRY AIRMASS WITH PWAT 0.07 INCH. THIS DRIER AIR IS SURGING
TOWARD THE UPR LKS...AND AT FCST ISSUANCE THIS DRY AIR APPEARS TO BE
LIMITING LES COVERAGE OVER THE W.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 425 AM EST FRI MAR 9 2012
TDAY...IN THE NEAR TERM...THE SFC COLD FNT WL CLEAR ERY BY FCST
ISSUANCE. AS COLDER/MOISTER H85 AIR SHOWN ON THE 00Z INL/YPL RAOBS
FOLLOW OVER LK SUP...EXPECT LES TO INCRS IN INTENSITY EARLY THIS
MRNG IN THE NW WIND SN BELTS E OF MQT. OVER THE W...THE DRIER AIR
THAT HAS CAUSED QUITE A BIT OF CLRG OVER THE W PORTION OF THE LK WL
LIMIT POPS/ADDITIONAL SN AMOUNTS. THE PRES RISE CENTER IS FCST TO
MOVE JUST TO THE E OF ISLE ROYALE BY 12Z THIS MRNG AND THEN TO JUST
E OF WHITEFISH PT BY 18Z. WITH H925 WINDS UP TO 40-45KTS ACCENTUATED
BY THE ISALLOBARIC WIND AHEAD OF THIS CENTER AND VIGOROUS
CAD/MIXING... EXPECT WIND GUSTS TO REACH NEAR 50 MPH AT EXPOSED
LOCATIONS TO NW WINDS IN ADVANCE OF THIS PRES RISE CENTER. WIND WL
DIMINISH ONCE THE PRES RISE CENTER MOVES TO THE E. SINCE VIGOROUS
DNVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC IS PROGGED TO DVLP OVER THE CWA BY 12Z IN
THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SHRTWV COMPLEX...EXPECT STRONG SUBSIDENCE
THAT IS FCST TO LOWER INVRN AND EVEN DESCEND INTO THE DGZ AS WELL AS
ARRIVAL OF MUCH DRIER LLVL AIR /H925-85 DEWPT DEPRESSIONS 5-10C/ TO
CAUSE THE LES TO DIMINISH FAIRLY QUICKLY W-E. THE TIMING OF THESE
NEGATIVE DYNAMICS/SUBSIDING WINDS/OBSERVED TRENDS SUPPORT THE 12Z
EXPIRATION OF THE HEADLINE FOR THE KEWEENAW. ALTHOUGH THE LONGER
FETCH ACRS LK SUP INTO AREAS E OF MQT WL MAINTAIN SOMEWHAT MORE NMRS
SHSN IN THAT AREA LONGER...OPTED TO CANX THE ADVY FOR THOSE AREAS
AFT 18Z ONCE THE PRES RISE CENTER SHIFTS TO THE E AND WINDS DIMINISH
IN THIS PROGRESSIVE FLOW. OVER THE W AND CNTRL...EXPECT A RETURN OF
SOME SUNSHINE DURING THE AFTN WITH THE SUBSIDENCE/LLVL
DRYING/ARRIVAL OF MORE ACYC FLOW AS SFC HI PRES RDG IS FCST TO REACH
THE CNTRL U.P. BY 00Z. BUT HI TEMPS WL BE WELL BLO NORMAL PER
UPSTREAM HI TEMPS MAINLY IN THE TEENS YDAY IN THE INCOMING AIRMASS
OVER SCNTRL CAN.
TNGT...STRONG WAD PATTERN IS FCST TO SET UP TNGT WITH HI PRES RDG
SHIFTING INTO THE UPR OH RIVER VALLEY UNDER PROGRESSIVE UPR RDG THAT
IS FCST TO RAISE H5 UP TO 80M OVER UPR MI BTWN 00Z-12Z. WITH FALLING
MSLP OVER SCNTRL CAN...S WINDS AT H925 ARE FCST TO INCRS UP 45 TO 50
KT BY 12Z SAT TO THE S OF PRES FALL CENTER PASSING THRU ONTARIO. THE
STRONG WAD IS FCST TO LIFT H85 TEMPS UP TO 7C AT IWD BY DAYBREAK.
ALTHOUGH THIS RETURNING WARM AIR WL SUPPORT A BAND OF CLDS THAT WL
SHIFT W-E ACRS THE UPR LKS...THE INCOMING AIRMASS WL BE FAIRLY DRY
WITH H85 DEWPTS IN THE -10C TO -15C RANGE. SO MODELS APPEAR ON TRACK
SHOWING THE WAD PCPN REMAINING MOSTLY TO THE N OF THE U.P. WITH JUST
A BAND OF THICKER AC/AS INFLUENCING THE CWA. DID RETAIN LO CHC POPS
FOR MAINLY THE NE HALF OF LK SUP. SUSPECT MIN TEMPS WL OCCUR IN THE
EVNG...WITH THE LOWEST READINGS OVER THE E IN THE EVNG. BUT TEMPS
SHOULD RISE OVERNGT WITH STRENGTHENING WINDS/RETURN OF MUCH WARMER
AIR.
SAT...WITH WARM FNT SHIFTING TO THE NE...CWA WL BE IN THE WARM
SECTOR WITH H85 TEMPS FCST IN THE 6-9C RANGE. DRYNESS OF THE
INCOMING AIRMASS SUGS POTENTIAL FOR LO CLDS IS MINIMAL. MIXING TO
JUST H9 ON GFS/NAM FCST SDNGS SUG MAX TEMPS WL PEAK IN THE 50S WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. A STRONG WSW WIND WITH H925 SPEEDS UP TO 35 KT
WL ENHANCE DOWNSLOPE WARMING BTWN BARAGA AND MQT. AREAS OVER THE E
DOWNWIND OF LK MI WL BE COOLEST.
SAT NGT...WITH WEAKENING PRES GRADIENT/DIMINISHING WINDS/MOCLR SKIES
UNDER BLDG UPR RDG IN THE GRT LKS...EXPECT A HEALTHY DIURNAL TEMP
FALL. BUT MIN TEMPS WL STILL BE WELL ABV NORMAL WITH UNSEASONABLY
WARM AIRMASS STILL IN PLACE.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 AM EST FRI MAR 9 2012
STILL ON TRACK TO HAVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SFC LOW OVR THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TO LIFT NORTHEAST AND BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN TO THE UPR LAKES.
MODELS SEEM TO BE LATCHING ONTO A SLOWER TIMING COMPARED TO RUNS FM
THE LAST COUPLE DAYS. BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN SUGGESTS A DRY
FCST FOR SUNDAY. GFS FCST SOUNDINGS AND RH FIELDS FM GFS/ECMWF POINT
TO ABRUPT ARRIVAL OF DEEPER MOISTURE/PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY NIGHT.
RESULT IS A GOOD DISPLAY OF SUNSHINE FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY. MIXING TO
925-900MB INDICATES HIGHS WELL INTO THE 50S FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN
HALF OF CWA. SFC WINDS ARE MAINLY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE
LOW WOULD KEEP MORE LAKE MODIFIED AIR/TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 40S OVR
EASTERN CWA AND ACROSS TIP OF KEWEENAW PENINSULA. RAIN FCST TO BEGIN
TO SPREAD IN FM THE SOUTH ON SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT HAVE DELAYED LIKELY
POPS UNTIL MONDAY WITH ARRIVAL OF UPR LOW AND HIGHER H85 DWPNTS.
RAISED MINS ON SUNDAY NIGHT TO 35-40F GIVEN INCREASING SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND MOISTURE ADVECTION.
IN THE EXTENDED...WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT /MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE
AMOUNTS/ CONTINUES TO COME INTO FOCUS ON MONDAY AND PERHAPS EVEN INTO
MONDAY EVENING. GFS/ECMWF HAVE DEFINITELY TRENDED TOWARD THE SLOWER
PROGRESSION OF THE CANADIAN...NOT EXITING POPS OVER CWA UNTIL MONDAY
EVENING. RAIN AMOUNTS WITH THE SYSTEM PROBABLY WILL END UP FM
0.25-0.50 INCH AS GFS/ECMWF SHOW STRONGEST H85 MOISTURE ADVECTION
JUST GRAZING THE CWA TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. AT THIS POINT...APPEARS
STEADIEST RAIN WILL OCCUR MONDAY MORNING INTO MID MONDAY AFTN. TEMPS
WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL BUT SHOULD BE HELD MAINLY IN THE 40S ON
MONDAY DUE TO THE CLOUDS/RAIN. MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE
MONDAY EVENING THEN SHARP DRYING ALOFT OCCURS AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY
NIGHT. AS LONG AS WINDS ARE NOT TOO STRONG...COULD SEE FOG FORM LATER
MONDAY NIGHT OVER CWA IN WAKE OF THE RAIN SHOWERS.
TUESDAY LOOKING DRY WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY. SFC
RIDGE IS OVER THE AREA SO LK BREEZES SHOULD FORM AND TRIED TO PUT
THIS IN GRIDS. MIXING TO H9 PROBABLY PRETTY GOOD BET WITH EXPECTED
SUNSHINE AND THAT GIVES HIGHS WELL INTO THE 50S IF NOT REACHING 60
DEGREES INLAND TOWARD WI BORDER.
SW FLOW INCREASES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF FAIRLY WELL
AGREED UPON TROUGH ADVANCING INTO UPR LAKES. SHOULD BE QUITE WARM
AHEAD OF TROUGH WITH DWPNTS INTO THE 40S AND MAYBE CLOSING IN ON 50
DEGREES IN THE WARM SECTOR. MIXING TO 925MB IS CONSERVATIVE IN SUCH A
SITUATION AND STILL RESULTED IN TEMPS AROUND 60F. IF CLOUDS AHEAD OF
TROUGH TAKE LONGER TO FORM COULD SEE MANY AREAS IN WESTERN HALF OF
CWA PUSHING WELL INTO THE 60S. COORD WITH GRB AND DLH TO INCREASE MAX
TEMPS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH. YDY MODELS WERE JUST
BEGINNING TO PICK UP ON THE TROUGH...BUT NOW ARE TRYING TO BREAK OUT
SOME QPF AHEAD OF TROUGH. LAPSE RATES ARE STEEP AND SI/S FCST TO FALL
BLO 0C. TRYING TO PIN DOWN DETAILS IN PATTERN KIND OF TOUGH BUT FOR
WHAT IT IS WORTH WARM SECTOR FM UPR MI INTO WI/LOWER MICHIGAN IS
WITHIN RIGHT ENTRANCE JET REGION FORCING. ENOUGH EVIDENCE THERE TO
INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR MOST CWA. IF CURRENT EXPLICIT
GUIDANCE FM GFS AND ECMWF IS CORRECT THEN MAJORITY OF CONVECTION
WOULD OCCUR MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF CWA. HOWEVER IF THE FRONT SLOWS
DOWN JUST A BIT THEN CONVECTION WOULD AFFECT MORE OF THE CWA AS FRONT
WOULD SLIDE THROUGH DURING PEAK HEATING. SPREAD SLIGHT CHANCES /NOTE
THESE DO NOT SHOW UP IN MOST OF OUR FORECAST PRODUCTS BEYOND DAY 3/
FARTHER WEST THAN CONSENSUS GUIDANCE SHOWS. HIGHER CHANCES AT THIS
POINT ONLY OVR FAR EASTERN CWA. BUBBLE HIGH BUILDS IN FOR THURSDAY
WITH DRY WEATHER AND TEMPS STILL RUNNING AOA NORMAL.
AS MENTIONED IN RECENT DISCUSSIONS...THE PROLONGED PERIOD OF WARM
TEMPS/HIGHER DWPNTS AND EVEN SOME RAIN RESULTS IN MOST OF THE
SNOWPACK LIKELY MELTING BY THIS TIME NEXT WEEK. DAYSHIFT ON THURSDAY
ISSUED A HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK WITH DETAILS /ARBESFMQT/. OUR OFFICE
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SNOWMELT AND POTENTIAL AFFECTS ON AREA
RIVERS/STREAMS AND OTHER LOW-LYING AREAS THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 557 AM EST FRI MAR 9 2012
ALTHOUGH GUSTY NW WINDS AND SOME BLSN WL IMPACT MAINLY CMX EARLY IN
THIS FCST PERIOD...EXPECT DIMINISHING WINDS AND A TRANSITION TO VFR
EVERYWHERE AS HI PRES/DRIER AIR ARRIVE FM THE W. A STRONGER S WIND
WL DEVELOP TNGT UNDER THE SHARPENING PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING HI AND A LO PRES MOVING THRU SCNTRL CAN. FCST LLWS AT CMX/
SAW BUT GUSTY WINDS AT IWD AS THIS LOCATION WL BE MORE EXPOSED.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 425 AM EST FRI MAR 9 2012
WITH NW WINDS JUST OFF THE LAKE SURFACE UP TO 45 KTS AND COLD AIR
BLOWING OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM LK WATERS...EXPECT A HI END GALE
EVENT AT LEAST OVER THE E HALF EARLY THIS MRNG. THERE COULD EVEN BE
SOME WIND GUSTS TOWARD STORM FORCE. THE APPROACH OF HI PRES FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS HAS ALREADY CAUSED WINDS TO DIMINISH OVER THE W...
AND THIS HI WILL BRING DIMINISHING WINDS TO THE E AS WELL BY LATER
THIS MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF HI WAVES/VERY COLD TEMPS WILL ALSO
CAUSE SOME HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY...BUT THIS WILL DIMINISH WITH THE
WINDS. AFTER A FAIRLY TRANQUIL EVENING...EXPECT A S GALE TONIGHT
INTO SAT OVER MAINLY THE E HALF AS THE PRES GRADIENT SHARPENS
BETWEEN THE DEPARTING HI AND LO PRES MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA.
BUT SINCE GALE HEADLINES ARE ALREADY OUT IN THIS AREA...WL NOT ISSUE
ANOTHER HEADLINE FOR NOW. THE ARRIVAL OF A WEAKER PRES GRADIENT WL
CAUSE DIMINISHING WINDS LATER SAT/SAT NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
FM THE PLAINS INTO UPR LAKES ON MONDAY WILL BRING INCREASE IN WINDS...BUT
SPEEDS SHOULD STAY BLO 30 KTS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MIZ001-
003.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MIZ006-007-085.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ249>251-266-
267.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ THIS
MORNING FOR LSZ162-240>242-263.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
LSZ243>245-248-264-265.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LSZ243>245-248-264-
265.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST /5 AM CST/ EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
LSZ240>242-263.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KC
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC/JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
652 AM CST FRI MAR 9 2012
.SHORT TERM...
WARM FRONT OVER SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA QUITE EVIDENT ON SURFACE
CHARTS WITH SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH WINDS FROM HETTINGER TO DICKINSON
AND WILLISTON AND TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 20S. SOUTHWEST OF THAT
LINE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID 30S FROM GLENDIVE...BEACH...
BAKER AND BUFFALO SD WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS. THE FRONT IS EDGING
EAST AND WHERE IT ENDS THE DAY WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER STORY OF
THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES HAVE VERY LARGE RANGE
FROM MID 20S FAR EASTERN DAKOTAS TO MID 60S OVER THE WEST. FRONT
MOVED THROUGH KBHK AROUND 8Z AND THROUGH BEACH AROUND 11Z...FAIRLY
SLOW MOVEMENT. THIS MAY ACCELERATE SOME THROUGH THE MORNING AS
SOLAR HEATING AIDES IN MIXING.
.AVIATION...
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH BAND OF MID CLOUD EXTENDED
FROM CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA NORTH THROUGH EASTERN SASKATCHEWAN.
MODELS HINT AT SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DEVELOPING IN SOUTHEAST
SURFACE FLOW BUT NO REFLECTION OF THAT AS OF NOW. HRRR HAS NARROW
BAND OF LIFR FORECAST BETWEEN BISMARCK AND DICKINSON BUT 12Z
OBSERVATIONS AND TAFS DO NOT REFLECT THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FORECAST.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HW
AVIATION...HW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
108 PM EST FRI MAR 9 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR SATURDAY AND BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. A
WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BACK EDGE OF POST-FRONTAL LOWER CLOUD SHIELD EXITING OFF OF LONG
ISLAND WITH ABUNDANT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE AREA. THESE
ARE CLEARING OUT THIS AFTERNOON BUT CLOUDS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
INTERIOR. WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO NORTHWEST
WINDS FURTHER DECREASING TODAY BUT HELPING USHER IN A COOLER
AIRMASS.
MUCH COOLER TEMPS IN STORE WITH SUBSTANTIAL COLD AIR
ADVECTION FROM THE BACKING OF WINDS FROM LOW TO MID LEVELS WITH
HIGHS UPDATED TO SLIGHTLY COOLER VALUES...MOSTLY IN THE UPPER
40S. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENING TOWARDS THE END OF THE
AFTERNOON WITH ITS ASSOCIATED INCREASE IN OMEGA AND PVA ALONG WITH
A WEAK SFC LOW APPROACHES BUT WITHOUT MUCH MOISTURE. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE
BETTER DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH. WITH RECENT RADAR
OBSERVATIONS TO THE WEST AND HRRR MODEL RUNS...SHIFTED THE
SHOWERS SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...NEW YORK
CITY AND LONG ISLAND WHICH IS FORECAST TO BE MOSTLY ISOLATED
COVERAGE. ANTICIPATING INITIALLY THE SHOWERS WOULD EVAPORATE
BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND WITH DRY LOW LEVELS...SO TIMED THE
SHOWERS MORE TOWARDS LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
BY EARLY EVENING...SOME SHOWERS IF HEAVY COULD BE A
RAIN/SNOW MIX WITH THE CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION AS SFC TEMPS
DROP TO NEAR 40.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE AND WITH ENOUGH COOLING IN
COLUMN...ANY RAIN SHOWERS WILL START TO MIX WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND
THEN PLAIN SNOW SHOWERS LATER AT NIGHT. WITHOUT A RICH MOISTURE
SOURCE...NOT THINKING OF ANY ACCUMULATIONS...PERHAPS JUST A
COATING ON GRASSY SURFACES AND AGAIN THIS WOULD BE MORE FOR THE
INTERIOR AREAS IN THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
CONNECTICUT...ESPECIALLY THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WEATHER DRIES OUT
LATE WITH HIGH PRESSURE STARTING TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.
A SECONDARY BURST OF WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 30 MPH THIS
EVE...THEN WINDS DIMINISH INTO SAT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE
REGION. MOSUNNY AND DRY SAT WITH TEMPS JUST BLW CLIMO.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THERE COULD BE SOME CLOUDS AROUND SAT EVENING ESPECIALLY OVER
SOUTHERN CT AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSES BY...THEN EXPECT
CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES TO THE SE OF THE AREA. A RETURN WSW FLOW WILL MARK A QUICK
WARMING TREND TO ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE LOWER 60S
FROM NYC NORTH/WEST...AND IN THE ACROSS MOST OF LONG ISLAND AND
SOUTHERN CT.
APPROACHING WARM FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK NOW LOOKS SLOWER TO
ARRIVE...SO HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST AND HIGH TEMPS REACHING
THE 60S TO NEAR 70...WARMEST FROM NYC NORTH/WEST AWAY FROM MARITIME
INFLUENCE. STILL HAVE CHANCE POP IN MOST PLACES WITH THE WARM
FRONTAL APPROACH MON NIGHT.
A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES PASSING THROUGH WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE TO
LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST...BUT WIDESPREAD CONTINUOUS RAIN IS
NOT ANTICIPATED NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK LOW PRES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT THIS EVENING. HIGH PRES RETURNS TONIGHT.
VFR...THOUGH A BKN MID-DECK AT 4K FT IS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS
EVENING.
WINDS WILL BACK TO THE WEST THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING AS WEAK LOW
PRES MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. A COLD FRONT FOLLOWS THIS
EVENING...AND WINDS VEER TO THE NW BEHIND THE FRONT. WITH CAA AND
A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT OVER THE AREA...NW WINDS INCREASE TO 15-20
KT WITH 25-30 KT GUSTS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS TO THE LEFT OF 310 TRUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING...THEN VEERING RIGHT OF 310 TRUE. AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR
CHANGES IN WIND DIRECTION AND/OR SPEED.
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR CHANGING WIND
DIRECTION/SPEED.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR CHANGING WIND
DIRECTION/SPEED.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR CHANGING WIND
DIRECTION/SPEED.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR CHANGING WIND
DIRECTION/SPEED.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR CHANGING WIND
DIRECTION/SPEED.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SATURDAY AFTERNOON-NIGHT...VFR WITH DIMINISHING WINDS.
.SUNDAY...VFR. GUSTY SW WINDS POSSIBLE.
.MONDAY...VFR.
.MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...SUB VFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS.
.WEDNESDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
EXPECT SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING. ON THE
PROTECTED WATERS...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THIS MORNING. SEAS ON
OCEAN LOWER SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN
TONIGHT TO 4-6 FT. WIND GUSTS RAMP BACK UP TO 25-30 KT TONIGHT
WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS WITH SCA FOR ALL WATERS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ON SATURDAY WITH GRADUAL LOWERING WINDS.
AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SE OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY...A WSW RETURN
FLOW WITH SPEEDS UP TO 20 KT SHOULD BUILD OCEAN SEAS UP TO SCA
LEVELS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY EAST/FARTHER OFFSHORE.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH THEREAFTER...WITH QUIET CONDITIONS RETURNING FOR
MON-MON NIGHT. INCREASING SW FLOW AFTER A WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE COULD
BUILD OCEAN SEAS UP TO SCA LEVELS TUE INTO TUE NIGHT...ONCE AGAIN
MAINLY EAST/FARTHER OFFSHORE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING WITH QPF
BEING LOW...A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OR LESS. WIDESPREAD
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION NOT EXPECTED.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WATER LEVELS WITH THE NEXT LOW TIDE CYCLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING SHOULD REMAIN JUST ABOVE THE LOW WATER ADVY
THRESHOLD OF -1.8 FT MLLW.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...JMC/GOODMAN/JM
SHORT TERM...JMC/JM
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...JMC/GOODMAN/JM
HYDROLOGY...JMC/JM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1243 PM EST FRI MAR 9 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 425 AM EST FRI MAR 9 2012
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW UPR TROF
STRETCHING FM HUDSON BAY INTO THE GRT LKS DOWNSTREAM OF RDG OVER
WRN NAMERICA. PAIR OF VIGOROUS SHRTWVS DIGGING WITHIN THE UPR TROF
AND OVER ONTARIO AND WI ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A SHARP COLD FNT THAT IS
PUSHING ACRS UPR MI EARLY THIS MRNG AND CAUSED 12-24Z H3 FALLS OVER
200M FM MOOSONEE ONTARIO TO APX. WITH STEEP SFC-H7 LAPSE RATE AND A
GOOD DEAL OF LLVL MSTR SHOWN ON THE 00Z INL RAOB AS WELL AS VIGOROUS
DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC ASSOCIATED MAINLY WITH THE STRONGER WI
SHRTWV/ACCOMPANYING 100KT H5 JET MAX...NMRS SHSN ARE PRECEDING THIS
COLD FROPA. A SHARP PRES RISE CENTER OVER NRN MN BEHIND THIS
DISTURBANCE WITH 3HR PRES RISE UP TO 7MB IS ASSOCIATED WITH VIGOROUS
CAD IN ADVANCE OF H85 THERMAL TROF WITH TEMPS DOWN TO -20C PUSHING
INTO NW ONTARIO. THE ISALLOBARIC WIND WNW WIND IN ADVANCE OF THIS
CENTER IS NEARLY ALIGNED WITH THE GRADIENT NW WIND BEHIND THE COLD
FNT AND HAS RESULTED IN WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 KTS AT SEVERAL OF THE
C-MAN SITES OVER WRN LK SUP. BEHIND THE FNT/THERMAL TROF...12-24Z H3
RISES OVER 200M WERE REPORTED AT THE PAS ONTARIO AND BISMARCK...
INDICATING A PROGRESSIVE UPR FLOW. SFC HI PRES IN ADVANCE OF THE
ROCKIES RDG IS CENTERED OVER NDAKOTA. THE 00Z RAOB FM THE PAS SHOWS
A VERY DRY AIRMASS WITH PWAT 0.07 INCH. THIS DRIER AIR IS SURGING
TOWARD THE UPR LKS...AND AT FCST ISSUANCE THIS DRY AIR APPEARS TO BE
LIMITING LES COVERAGE OVER THE W.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 425 AM EST FRI MAR 9 2012
TDAY...IN THE NEAR TERM...THE SFC COLD FNT WL CLEAR ERY BY FCST
ISSUANCE. AS COLDER/MOISTER H85 AIR SHOWN ON THE 00Z INL/YPL RAOBS
FOLLOW OVER LK SUP...EXPECT LES TO INCRS IN INTENSITY EARLY THIS
MRNG IN THE NW WIND SN BELTS E OF MQT. OVER THE W...THE DRIER AIR
THAT HAS CAUSED QUITE A BIT OF CLRG OVER THE W PORTION OF THE LK WL
LIMIT POPS/ADDITIONAL SN AMOUNTS. THE PRES RISE CENTER IS FCST TO
MOVE JUST TO THE E OF ISLE ROYALE BY 12Z THIS MRNG AND THEN TO JUST
E OF WHITEFISH PT BY 18Z. WITH H925 WINDS UP TO 40-45KTS ACCENTUATED
BY THE ISALLOBARIC WIND AHEAD OF THIS CENTER AND VIGOROUS
CAD/MIXING... EXPECT WIND GUSTS TO REACH NEAR 50 MPH AT EXPOSED
LOCATIONS TO NW WINDS IN ADVANCE OF THIS PRES RISE CENTER. WIND WL
DIMINISH ONCE THE PRES RISE CENTER MOVES TO THE E. SINCE VIGOROUS
DNVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC IS PROGGED TO DVLP OVER THE CWA BY 12Z IN
THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SHRTWV COMPLEX...EXPECT STRONG SUBSIDENCE
THAT IS FCST TO LOWER INVRN AND EVEN DESCEND INTO THE DGZ AS WELL AS
ARRIVAL OF MUCH DRIER LLVL AIR /H925-85 DEWPT DEPRESSIONS 5-10C/ TO
CAUSE THE LES TO DIMINISH FAIRLY QUICKLY W-E. THE TIMING OF THESE
NEGATIVE DYNAMICS/SUBSIDING WINDS/OBSERVED TRENDS SUPPORT THE 12Z
EXPIRATION OF THE HEADLINE FOR THE KEWEENAW. ALTHOUGH THE LONGER
FETCH ACRS LK SUP INTO AREAS E OF MQT WL MAINTAIN SOMEWHAT MORE NMRS
SHSN IN THAT AREA LONGER...OPTED TO CANX THE ADVY FOR THOSE AREAS
AFT 18Z ONCE THE PRES RISE CENTER SHIFTS TO THE E AND WINDS DIMINISH
IN THIS PROGRESSIVE FLOW. OVER THE W AND CNTRL...EXPECT A RETURN OF
SOME SUNSHINE DURING THE AFTN WITH THE SUBSIDENCE/LLVL
DRYING/ARRIVAL OF MORE ACYC FLOW AS SFC HI PRES RDG IS FCST TO REACH
THE CNTRL U.P. BY 00Z. BUT HI TEMPS WL BE WELL BLO NORMAL PER
UPSTREAM HI TEMPS MAINLY IN THE TEENS YDAY IN THE INCOMING AIRMASS
OVER SCNTRL CAN.
TNGT...STRONG WAD PATTERN IS FCST TO SET UP TNGT WITH HI PRES RDG
SHIFTING INTO THE UPR OH RIVER VALLEY UNDER PROGRESSIVE UPR RDG THAT
IS FCST TO RAISE H5 UP TO 80M OVER UPR MI BTWN 00Z-12Z. WITH FALLING
MSLP OVER SCNTRL CAN...S WINDS AT H925 ARE FCST TO INCRS UP 45 TO 50
KT BY 12Z SAT TO THE S OF PRES FALL CENTER PASSING THRU ONTARIO. THE
STRONG WAD IS FCST TO LIFT H85 TEMPS UP TO 7C AT IWD BY DAYBREAK.
ALTHOUGH THIS RETURNING WARM AIR WL SUPPORT A BAND OF CLDS THAT WL
SHIFT W-E ACRS THE UPR LKS...THE INCOMING AIRMASS WL BE FAIRLY DRY
WITH H85 DEWPTS IN THE -10C TO -15C RANGE. SO MODELS APPEAR ON TRACK
SHOWING THE WAD PCPN REMAINING MOSTLY TO THE N OF THE U.P. WITH JUST
A BAND OF THICKER AC/AS INFLUENCING THE CWA. DID RETAIN LO CHC POPS
FOR MAINLY THE NE HALF OF LK SUP. SUSPECT MIN TEMPS WL OCCUR IN THE
EVNG...WITH THE LOWEST READINGS OVER THE E IN THE EVNG. BUT TEMPS
SHOULD RISE OVERNGT WITH STRENGTHENING WINDS/RETURN OF MUCH WARMER
AIR.
SAT...WITH WARM FNT SHIFTING TO THE NE...CWA WL BE IN THE WARM
SECTOR WITH H85 TEMPS FCST IN THE 6-9C RANGE. DRYNESS OF THE
INCOMING AIRMASS SUGS POTENTIAL FOR LO CLDS IS MINIMAL. MIXING TO
JUST H9 ON GFS/NAM FCST SDNGS SUG MAX TEMPS WL PEAK IN THE 50S WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. A STRONG WSW WIND WITH H925 SPEEDS UP TO 35 KT
WL ENHANCE DOWNSLOPE WARMING BTWN BARAGA AND MQT. AREAS OVER THE E
DOWNWIND OF LK MI WL BE COOLEST.
SAT NGT...WITH WEAKENING PRES GRADIENT/DIMINISHING WINDS/MOCLR SKIES
UNDER BLDG UPR RDG IN THE GRT LKS...EXPECT A HEALTHY DIURNAL TEMP
FALL. BUT MIN TEMPS WL STILL BE WELL ABV NORMAL WITH UNSEASONABLY
WARM AIRMASS STILL IN PLACE.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 AM EST FRI MAR 9 2012
STILL ON TRACK TO HAVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SFC LOW OVR THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TO LIFT NORTHEAST AND BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN TO THE UPR LAKES.
MODELS SEEM TO BE LATCHING ONTO A SLOWER TIMING COMPARED TO RUNS FM
THE LAST COUPLE DAYS. BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN SUGGESTS A DRY
FCST FOR SUNDAY. GFS FCST SOUNDINGS AND RH FIELDS FM GFS/ECMWF POINT
TO ABRUPT ARRIVAL OF DEEPER MOISTURE/PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY NIGHT.
RESULT IS A GOOD DISPLAY OF SUNSHINE FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY. MIXING TO
925-900MB INDICATES HIGHS WELL INTO THE 50S FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN
HALF OF CWA. SFC WINDS ARE MAINLY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE
LOW WOULD KEEP MORE LAKE MODIFIED AIR/TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 40S OVR
EASTERN CWA AND ACROSS TIP OF KEWEENAW PENINSULA. RAIN FCST TO BEGIN
TO SPREAD IN FM THE SOUTH ON SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT HAVE DELAYED LIKELY
POPS UNTIL MONDAY WITH ARRIVAL OF UPR LOW AND HIGHER H85 DWPNTS.
RAISED MINS ON SUNDAY NIGHT TO 35-40F GIVEN INCREASING SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND MOISTURE ADVECTION.
IN THE EXTENDED...WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT /MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE
AMOUNTS/ CONTINUES TO COME INTO FOCUS ON MONDAY AND PERHAPS EVEN INTO
MONDAY EVENING. GFS/ECMWF HAVE DEFINITELY TRENDED TOWARD THE SLOWER
PROGRESSION OF THE CANADIAN...NOT EXITING POPS OVER CWA UNTIL MONDAY
EVENING. RAIN AMOUNTS WITH THE SYSTEM PROBABLY WILL END UP FM
0.25-0.50 INCH AS GFS/ECMWF SHOW STRONGEST H85 MOISTURE ADVECTION
JUST GRAZING THE CWA TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. AT THIS POINT...APPEARS
STEADIEST RAIN WILL OCCUR MONDAY MORNING INTO MID MONDAY AFTN. TEMPS
WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL BUT SHOULD BE HELD MAINLY IN THE 40S ON
MONDAY DUE TO THE CLOUDS/RAIN. MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE
MONDAY EVENING THEN SHARP DRYING ALOFT OCCURS AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY
NIGHT. AS LONG AS WINDS ARE NOT TOO STRONG...COULD SEE FOG FORM LATER
MONDAY NIGHT OVER CWA IN WAKE OF THE RAIN SHOWERS.
TUESDAY LOOKING DRY WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY. SFC
RIDGE IS OVER THE AREA SO LK BREEZES SHOULD FORM AND TRIED TO PUT
THIS IN GRIDS. MIXING TO H9 PROBABLY PRETTY GOOD BET WITH EXPECTED
SUNSHINE AND THAT GIVES HIGHS WELL INTO THE 50S IF NOT REACHING 60
DEGREES INLAND TOWARD WI BORDER.
SW FLOW INCREASES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF FAIRLY WELL
AGREED UPON TROUGH ADVANCING INTO UPR LAKES. SHOULD BE QUITE WARM
AHEAD OF TROUGH WITH DWPNTS INTO THE 40S AND MAYBE CLOSING IN ON 50
DEGREES IN THE WARM SECTOR. MIXING TO 925MB IS CONSERVATIVE IN SUCH A
SITUATION AND STILL RESULTED IN TEMPS AROUND 60F. IF CLOUDS AHEAD OF
TROUGH TAKE LONGER TO FORM COULD SEE MANY AREAS IN WESTERN HALF OF
CWA PUSHING WELL INTO THE 60S. COORD WITH GRB AND DLH TO INCREASE MAX
TEMPS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH. YDY MODELS WERE JUST
BEGINNING TO PICK UP ON THE TROUGH...BUT NOW ARE TRYING TO BREAK OUT
SOME QPF AHEAD OF TROUGH. LAPSE RATES ARE STEEP AND SI/S FCST TO FALL
BLO 0C. TRYING TO PIN DOWN DETAILS IN PATTERN KIND OF TOUGH BUT FOR
WHAT IT IS WORTH WARM SECTOR FM UPR MI INTO WI/LOWER MICHIGAN IS
WITHIN RIGHT ENTRANCE JET REGION FORCING. ENOUGH EVIDENCE THERE TO
INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR MOST CWA. IF CURRENT EXPLICIT
GUIDANCE FM GFS AND ECMWF IS CORRECT THEN MAJORITY OF CONVECTION
WOULD OCCUR MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF CWA. HOWEVER IF THE FRONT SLOWS
DOWN JUST A BIT THEN CONVECTION WOULD AFFECT MORE OF THE CWA AS FRONT
WOULD SLIDE THROUGH DURING PEAK HEATING. SPREAD SLIGHT CHANCES /NOTE
THESE DO NOT SHOW UP IN MOST OF OUR FORECAST PRODUCTS BEYOND DAY 3/
FARTHER WEST THAN CONSENSUS GUIDANCE SHOWS. HIGHER CHANCES AT THIS
POINT ONLY OVR FAR EASTERN CWA. BUBBLE HIGH BUILDS IN FOR THURSDAY
WITH DRY WEATHER AND TEMPS STILL RUNNING AOA NORMAL.
AS MENTIONED IN RECENT DISCUSSIONS...THE PROLONGED PERIOD OF WARM
TEMPS/HIGHER DWPNTS AND EVEN SOME RAIN RESULTS IN MOST OF THE
SNOWPACK LIKELY MELTING BY THIS TIME NEXT WEEK. DAYSHIFT ON THURSDAY
ISSUED A HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK WITH DETAILS /ARBESFMQT/. OUR OFFICE
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SNOWMELT AND POTENTIAL AFFECTS ON AREA
RIVERS/STREAMS AND OTHER LOW-LYING AREAS THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM EST FRI MAR 9 2012
EXPECT ONGOING DIMINISHING WINDS AND A TRANSITION TO VFR TO CONTINUE
AS HIGH PRESSURE/DRIER AIR ARRIVE FROM THE W. A STRONGER S WIND WILL
DEVELOP TONIGHT UNDER THE SHARPENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING HIGH AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH S CENTRAL
CANADA. FORECAST LLWS AT CMX/SAW BUT GUSTY WINDS AT IWD AS THIS
LOCATION WILL BE MORE EXPOSED...WITH WINDS BECOMING GUSTY (ENDING
LLWS) SATURDAY MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 425 AM EST FRI MAR 9 2012
WITH NW WINDS JUST OFF THE LAKE SURFACE UP TO 45 KTS AND COLD AIR
BLOWING OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM LK WATERS...EXPECT A HI END GALE
EVENT AT LEAST OVER THE E HALF EARLY THIS MRNG. THERE COULD EVEN BE
SOME WIND GUSTS TOWARD STORM FORCE. THE APPROACH OF HI PRES FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS HAS ALREADY CAUSED WINDS TO DIMINISH OVER THE W...
AND THIS HI WILL BRING DIMINISHING WINDS TO THE E AS WELL BY LATER
THIS MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF HI WAVES/VERY COLD TEMPS WILL ALSO
CAUSE SOME HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY...BUT THIS WILL DIMINISH WITH THE
WINDS. AFTER A FAIRLY TRANQUIL EVENING...EXPECT A S GALE TONIGHT
INTO SAT OVER MAINLY THE E HALF AS THE PRES GRADIENT SHARPENS
BETWEEN THE DEPARTING HI AND LO PRES MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA.
BUT SINCE GALE HEADLINES ARE ALREADY OUT IN THIS AREA...WL NOT ISSUE
ANOTHER HEADLINE FOR NOW. THE ARRIVAL OF A WEAKER PRES GRADIENT WL
CAUSE DIMINISHING WINDS LATER SAT/SAT NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
FM THE PLAINS INTO UPR LAKES ON MONDAY WILL BRING INCREASE IN WINDS...BUT
SPEEDS SHOULD STAY BLO 30 KTS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MIZ006-007-085.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ249>251-266-
267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KC
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...KC/JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
322 PM EST FRI MAR 9 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST THIS EVENING... FOLLOWED
BY A CHILLY NORTHWEST FLOW TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SNOW SHOWERS
OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING... EXCEPT FOR A FEW BANDS OF LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW
PERSISTING INTO THE MORNING HOURS ON SATURDAY. DRY... COLD WEATHER
IS EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER WILL
RETURN ON SUNDAY... WITH SEVERAL DAYS OF WARM WEATHER EXPECTED
THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
500 MB TROUGH AND VORTICITY MAX WILL TRACK ACROSS AND EAST OF THE
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. WIDESPREAD SNOW
SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER SQUALLS WILL DIMINISH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING.
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP FROM CENTRAL
NEW ENGLAND WNW BACK TOWARD LAKE ONTARIO THIS EVENING IN RESPONSE
TO THE SHORT WAVE MOVING EAST FROM NY ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THAT TROUGH
ALONG WITH SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT WITH A FLOW FROM AROUND 290
DEGREES AND 850 MB TEMP FROM -10 TO -12 SHOULD HELP TO ORGANIZE
SNOW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKE IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY THIS
EVENING. VSBL SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GREAT
LAKES INDICATE THAT THE ATMOSPHERE IS CURRENTLY SUPPORTING SOME
WNW ORIENTED SNOW BANDS OVER MICHIGAN CURRENTLY... AND THESE
SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO OUR AREA THIS EVENING WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT
BY THE SURFACE TROUGH. SOUTH OF THESE BANDS EXPECT JUST A FEW
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. THIS SCENARIO IS SUPPORTED BY THE HIGH
RESOLUTION HRRR AND 4 KM NAM.
THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT SHIFTING TO
AROUND 320 TO 330 DEGREES AFTER MIDNIGHT. THAT SHOULD ALLOW SOME
LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS TO SHIFT SOUTH TOWARD THE FINGER LAKES
OVERNIGHT. OVERALL EXPECT SNOW AMOUNTS TONIGHT SOUTHEAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO TO BE LIGHT AS TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE MARGINALLY COLD
ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT... WINDS WILL NOT BE VERY STRONG AND THE
INVERSION WILL BE LOWERING. NIGHT-TIME ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 4
INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS PROBABLY IN THE HILLS
SOUTH SYRACUSE AND MOHAWK VALLEY. CONCERN WOULD BE FOR LOCALLY
HEAVIER AMOUNTS IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
SURFACE TROUGH... BUT EXPECT THAT THIS BAND WILL NOT ORGANIZE
EARLY ENOUGH TO PERSIST FOR LONG BEFORE IT SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH
WITH THE WIND SHIFT TO NORTHWEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
VERY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD. ANY FLURRIES
SOUTHEAST OF THE FINGER LAKES SHOULD DIMINISH BY NOON ON
SATURDAY... WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BY
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT BEFORE A LONG PERIOD OF WARM WEATHER. AFTER A CHILLY START
SUNDAY MORNING EXPECT SUNSHINE AND RAPIDLY WARMING TEMPERATURES
DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH ALL AREAS RECOVERING WELL INTO THE
50S... AND SOME LOWER 60S POSSIBLE OVER THE LAKE PLAIN.
NEXT CHC OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL BE MONDAY AS A CLOSED UPPER
LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARD THE GREAT
LAKES. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THIS SCENARIO ON MONDAY... ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY FARTHER
EAST WITH SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION. AT THIS POINT A LOW CHC POP
SHOULD COVER THINGS FOR MONDAY WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS OVER THE
WESTERN PART OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME
WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL 500MB
HEIGHTS AND MILD CONDITIONS.
TWO SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD. A SFC LOW WILL
MOVE FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO EASTERN CANADA. MODEL
CONSENSUS IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN YESTERDAY SO WILL INCLUDE CHC
POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS BOTH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOOKS DRY WITH BUILDING H5 HEIGHTS
AND SFC HIGH PRES IN THE VCNTY. A SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH EASTERN
CANADA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. GFS MUCH STRONGER WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL WAVE
THROUGH EASTERN CANADA AND RESULTING SFC LOW COMPARED TO THE
ECMWF. FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE WHICH LEANED TOWARD THE GFS.
INCLUDED CHC POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT,
FOLLOWED BY DRY WEATHER ON FRIDAY.
TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL MORE IN LINE
WITH LATE APRIL NORMALS, WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 40S AND HIGHS UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL BOUNCE FROM VFR
TO MVFR AND EVEN IFR AS SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS MOVE FROM WEST TO
EAST. CIGS AND VSBYS COULD BOTH BE AFFECTED, ALTHOUGH, SO FAR,
THEY ARE NOT NECESSARILY DROPPING WITH EACH SHOWER. GIVEN THIS,
HAVE USED TEMPO GROUPS TO INDICATE POSSIBLE CONDITIONS UNDER THESE
SHOWERS. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT THIS EVENING AND LAKE EFFECT
SNOW WILL DEVELOP. THE MAIN TAF SITES AFFECTED WILL BE SYR AND
ITH, GIVEN THE FLOW WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST. RME MAY SEE SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS, AS WELL AS ELM AND BGM. AVP LOOKS TO SEE A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON, BUT MOST LIKELY WILL NOT SEE ANY
LAKE EFFECT SNOW. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
WINDS ARE GENERALLY WESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 10KTS. THEY
WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY LATE THIS EVENING AND SHOULD INCREASE A
BIT TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15KTS.TOMORROW THEY WILL CONTINUE TO BE NW
BUT DECREASE TO 5 TO 10KTS.
.OUTLOOK...
SAT/SUN...VFR.
MON...MAINLY VFR. PSBL MVFR IN LATE DAY SHWRS.
TUE...VFR WITH PSBL MVFR IN -SHRA.
WED...VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...MSE
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...SLI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
258 PM EST FRI MAR 9 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST THIS EVENING... FOLLOWED
BY A CHILLY NORTHWEST FLOW TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SNOW SHOWERS
OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING... EXCEPT FOR A FEW BANDS OF LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW
PERSISTING INTO THE MORNING HOURS ON SATURDAY. DRY... COLD WEATHER
IS EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER WILL
RETURN ON SUNDAY... WITH SEVERAL DAYS OF WARM WEATHER EXPECTED
THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
500 MB TROUGH AND VORTICITY MAX WILL TRACK ACROSS AND EAST OF THE
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. WIDESPREAD SNOW
SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER SQUALLS WILL DIMINISH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING.
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP FROM CENTRAL
NEW ENGLAND WNW BACK TOWARD LAKE ONTARIO THIS EVENING IN RESPONSE
TO THE SHORT WAVE MOVING EAST FROM NY ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THAT TROUGH
ALONG WITH SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT WITH A FLOW FROM AROUND 290
DEGREES AND 850 MB TEMP FROM -10 TO -12 SHOULD HELP TO ORGANIZE
SNOW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKE IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY THIS
EVENING. VSBL SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GREAT
LAKES INDICATE THAT THE ATMOSPHERE IS CURRENTLY SUPPORTING SOME
WNW ORIENTED SNOW BANDS OVER MICHIGAN CURRENTLY... AND THESE
SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO OUR AREA THIS EVENING WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT
BY THE SURFACE TROUGH. SOUTH OF THESE BANDS EXPECT JUST A FEW
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. THIS SCENARIO IS SUPPORTED BY THE HIGH
RESOLUTION HRRR AND 4 KM NAM.
THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT SHIFTING TO
AROUND 320 TO 330 DEGREES AFTER MIDNIGHT. THAT SHOULD ALLOW SOME
LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS TO SHIFT SOUTH TOWARD THE FINGER LAKES
OVERNIGHT. OVERALL EXPECT SNOW AMOUNTS TONIGHT SOUTHEAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO TO BE LIGHT AS TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE MARGINALLY COLD
ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT... WINDS WILL NOT BE VERY STRONG AND THE
INVERSION WILL BE LOWERING. NIGHT-TIME ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 4
INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS PROBABLY IN THE HILLS
SOUTH SYRACUSE AND MOHAWK VALLEY. CONCERN WOULD BE FOR LOCALLY
HEAVIER AMOUNTS IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
SURFACE TROUGH... BUT EXPECT THAT THIS BAND WILL NOT ORGANIZE
EARLY ENOUGH TO PERSIST FOR LONG BEFORE IT SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH
WITH THE WIND SHIFT TO NORTHWEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VERY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD. ANY FLURRIES
SOUTHEAST OF THE FINGER LAKES SHOULD DIMINISH BY NOON ON
SATURDAY... WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BY
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT BEFORE A LONG PERIOD OF WARM WEATHER. AFTER A CHILLY START
SUNDAY MORNING EXPECT SUNSHINE AND RAPIDLY WARMING TEMPERATURES
DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH ALL AREAS RECOVERING WELL INTO THE
50S... AND SOME LOWER 60S POSSIBLE OVER THE LAKE PLAIN.
NEXT CHC OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL BE MONDAY AS A CLOSED UPPER
LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARD THE GREAT
LAKES. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THIS SCENARIO ON MONDAY... ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY FARTHER
EAST WITH SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION. AT THIS POINT A LOW CHC POP
SHOULD COVER THINGS FOR MONDAY WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS OVER THE
WESTERN PART OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
330 AM FRI UPDATE... NO CHANGES MADE TO THE GRIDS ATTM...AS MODEL
CONSENSUS FOR THE 00Z FRI CYCLE IS REASONABLY WELL REPRESENTED IN
OUR LATEST FCST.
EC/GFS/CMC AGREEMENT IS VERY GOOD ON THE LARGE-SCALE NEXT
WEEK...WITH A FAIRLY DEEP TROUGH NEAR THE WEST COAST...A MEAN RIDGE
AXIS FROM THE GOMEX TO THE MID-ATL COAST...AND A BROAD MILD SWLY FLOW
PATN COVERING MOST OF THE CONUS.
DAILY WX-WISE...A PROGRESSIVE UPR-LVL WAVE AND ASSOCD SFC TROUGH ARE
STILL EXPECTED TO PUSH ACRS NY/PA MON INTO MON NGT...WITH AT LEAST
SCTD -SHRA. THE NEXT DISTURBANCE AND WEAK SFC BNDRY AREN`T SLATED TO
ARRIVE TIL THU...BRINGING THE NEXT ROUND OF SHWRS. IN BETWEEN...TUE
AND WED LOOK RAIN-FREE...WITH WELL ABV NORMAL TEMPS FOR MID-MAR.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 50S AND 60S
EACH DAY. IN FACT...IF ENOUGH OF A WARM AIR PUSH DEVELOPS AHD OF THE
LATE WEEK FROPA MENTIONED ABV...A RUN AT 70 DEGS WOULDN`T AT ALL BE
INCONCEIVABLE FOR WED. TIME WILL TELL.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL BOUNCE FROM VFR
TO MVFR AND EVEN IFR AS SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS MOVE FROM WEST TO
EAST. CIGS AND VSBYS COULD BOTH BE AFFECTED, ALTHOUGH, SO FAR,
THEY ARE NOT NECESSARILY DROPPING WITH EACH SHOWER. GIVEN THIS,
HAVE USED TEMPO GROUPS TO INDICATE POSSIBLE CONDITIONS UNDER THESE
SHOWERS. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT THIS EVENING AND LAKE EFFECT
SNOW WILL DEVELOP. THE MAIN TAF SITES AFFECTED WILL BE SYR AND
ITH, GIVEN THE FLOW WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST. RME MAY SEE SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS, AS WELL AS ELM AND BGM. AVP LOOKS TO SEE A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON, BUT MOST LIKELY WILL NOT SEE ANY
LAKE EFFECT SNOW. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
WINDS ARE GENERALLY WESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 10KTS. THEY
WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY LATE THIS EVENING AND SHOULD INCREASE A
BIT TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15KTS.TOMORROW THEY WILL CONTINUE TO BE NW
BUT DECREASE TO 5 TO 10KTS.
.OUTLOOK...
SAT/SUN...VFR.
MON...MAINLY VFR. PSBL MVFR IN LATE DAY SHWRS.
TUE...VFR WITH PSBL MVFR IN -SHRA.
WED...VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...MSE
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...SLI