Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 03/06/12

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO

241 PM MST SUN MAR 4 2012

.SHORT TERM...THE CROSS STATE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO
RELAX WITH THE EAGLE-DENVER SFC P.G. FALLING BELOW 7 MBS IN THE
PAST HOUR. WHEREAS THE STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT HAS YET TO
DECREASE AS PER AREA PROFILERS AND RUC WIND FIELDS. THAT SAID...
SFC WIND SPEEDS CONTINUE TO DECREASE...EXCEPT UP AGAINST THE
FOOTHILLS AND HIGHER AREAS NORTH OF FORT COLLINS NEAR THE WYOMING
BORDER WHERE WESTERLY WINDS STILL GUSTING 35-45 MPH. WIND SPEEDS
SHOULD DECREASE IN THESE AREAS AS WELL DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS
ACCORDING TO MODEL GUIDANCE. WINDS SHOULD ASSUME THEIR USUAL
DRAINAGE PATTERN NOT TOO LONG AFTER SUNSET...EXCEPT NEAR THE
FOOTHILLS WHERE AN ENHANCED DRAINAGE FLOW IS LIKELY TO PERSIST
OVERNIGHT. DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...MODELS INDICATE A 1-2C
WARMUP AT 700MB AND LOW RHS THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN OVER NORTHEAST
COLORADO. THEREFORE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WARMER SFC TEMPERATURES
AREAWIDE. AND WITH A WEAKER PRES GRAD ACROSS THE AREA...WINDS WILL
BE MUCH LIGHTER...EXCEPT PERHAPS NEAR THE FOOTHILLS WHERE WE COULD
SEE OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 30 MPH.

.LONG TERM...FLAT RIDGE ACROSS COLORADO ON MONDAY NIGHT WITH FAST
WESTERLY FLOW...WILL SHIFT MORE SOUTHWESTERLY ON TUESDAY. THIS IN
REPSONSE TO DEEPENING TROF OVER THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. CROSS SECTIONS SHOW CROSS BARRIER FLOW OF
30-40KT SO CONTINUED GUSTY WINDS. SOME OF THIS WIND WILL MIX DOWN
OVER THE PLAINS TUESDAY WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS MIXING DOWN.
THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED WHERE THERE IS STILL SOME SNOW
COVER SO BIT COOLER AND BORDERLINE RH LVLS SO NO FIRE HILITES
NEEDED. MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL READINGS WELL INTO THE
60S OVER ALL THE PLAINS.

BIGGER CONCERN TURNS TO THE MID WEEK WITH THE GREAT BASIN UPPER
LOW DEVELOPMENT AND HOW IT WILL EFFECT COLORADO. MODELS FAIRLY
CONSISTENT IN BRINGING IN INITIAL COLD FRONT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH COLDER AIRMASS IN PLACE FOR WEDNESDAY. THE PROBLEM IS THE
MODELS ARE QUITE VARIED ON WHERE THE LOW GOES NEXT. THE EUROPEAN
KEEPS THE LOW OVER ARIZONA THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING IT INTO
NEW MEXICO ON FRIDAY THEN SWINGS IT INTO COLORADO ON SATURDAY. THE
GFS ON THE OTHER HAND MOVES THE LOW INTO 4 CORNERS REGION LATE
WEDNESDAY BEFORE SLOWLY MOVING IT INTO SW KANSAS BY FRIDAY AND
THEN IT SITS AND SITS THORUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. NOT SURE HOW
MUCH MOISTURE IS GOING TO BE AVAILABLE SO FOR NOW JUST KEEP OUR
LOW POPS AND EXTEND THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY WITH THE SLOWER
MOVEMENT.

.AVIATION...WEST WINDS 10-20KTS AT DIA AND APA AIRPORTS...AND
15-30KTS AT BJC NEAR T HE FOOTHILLS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL GO DRAINAGE 6-12KTS
AFTER 01Z...EXCEPT AT BJC WHERE WE COULD SEE WEST-SOUTHWEST
WINDS OF 12-22KTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. OTHERWISE CLEAR/MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE DENVER AREA FOR
NEXT 24 HOURS.

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM....ENTREKIN
AVIATION...BAKER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ

926 AM EST SUN MAR 4 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO TRACK WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND
EAST TODAY, THEN A WEAK SYSTEM QUICKLY TRACKS ACROSS PARTS OF THE
MID ATLANTIC MONDAY BEFORE GOING OUT TO SEA. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS OUR AREA TUESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING TO OUR
EAST WEDNESDAY. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH
OUR REGION LATE THURSDAY, THEN GRADUALLY SETTLE THROUGH OUR AREA
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BEGIN TO BUILD TOWARD OUR AREA DURING
SATURDAY.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO BIG CHANGES TO THE SHORT TERM GRIDS. PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO
GRAZE THE SERN PART OF OUR CWA. AS PER THE LATEST HRRR THIS SHOULD
BE THE CASE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. WE SLOWED THE ASCENT
OF TEMPS A BIT IN THE NEAR TERM.

THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM FOR TODAY WILL BE THE NORTHWEST EXTENT OF
THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW PASSING
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA.

A LARGE SWATH OF CIRRUS AND ALTOSTRATUS COVERS THE AREA THIS
MORNING...AS SEVERAL VERY STRONG JET STREAKS (SOME IN EXCESS OF
150 KNOTS) STREAM NORTHEAST THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW. A SHORT
WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH ONE OF THE JET STREAKS IS APPROACHING THE
STALLED FRONT ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. AS THE SHORT WAVE
APPROACHES...IT IS INDUCING A LARGE AREA OF MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SURFACE FRONT.

IN TURN...THE RADAR RETURNS ARE BLOSSOMING JUST SOUTH OF THE BEST
MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING. THE RAIN SHIELD HAS MADE IT INTO
SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE PROGRESSION HAS BEEN
SLOWED BY THE VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL
FORCING (THE KWAL AND KIAD 0000 UTC SOUNDINGS WERE VERY DRY). THE
DRY AIR WILL PLAY AN IMPORTANT ROLE IN DETERMINING JUST HOW FAR
NORTH AND WEST THE RAIN SHIELD GETS.

THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS TO KEEP THE MAIN RAIN SHIELD CONFINED TO
SOUTHEAST DELAWARE AND A PORTION OF THE SOUTHEAST NEW JERSEY COAST
THIS MORNING (AND PERHAPS EARLY AFTERNOON). THIS MAKES SENSE
CONSIDERING THAT THE MID LEVEL FLOW DOES NOT LOOK AS THOUGH IT WILL
BACK ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE MID LEVEL FORCING TO GET ANY FURTHER WEST.
ADD IN THE FACT THAT THE AIRMASS IS VERY DRY IN PLACE...AND IT WOULD
APPEAR AS THOUGH THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS WILL BE THE ONLY ONES
TO GET ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION FROM THIS SYSTEM.

THE COLUMN IS DRY (AND DRY EQUALS COLD THIS TIME OF YEAR).
HOWEVER...IT DOES NOT APPEAR AS THOUGH THE PRECIPITATION RATES WILL
BE HIGH ENOUGH TO TAKE FULL ADVANTAGE OF THE EVAPORATIVE COOLING
POTENTIAL . ADD IN THE FACT THAT DEW POINTS ARE RELATIVELY
HIGH...AND IT APPEAR AS THOUGH RAIN WILL BE THE PRECIPITATION TYPE
TODAY.

ELSEWHERE...THE HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD AFFECT THE REGION
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. THERE IS SOME HINT THAT MOST PLACES GET CLOSE
TO CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES...WHICH WOULD ALLOW LOWER CLOUDS TO FILL
IN WHERE THERE IS SUNSHINE. BASED ON THIS...HIGHS WERE NUDGED DOWN
CLOSER TO THE COOLER NAM MOS NUMBERS.

MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SUGGESTING THAT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST...THE INCREASE IN THE DEPTH OF THE MIXED LAYER COULD RESULT
IN GUSTINESS TO THE WIND THIS AFTERNOON. IN FACT...MODEL SOUNDINGS
ARE SHOWING 35 KNOTS AT THE TOP OF THE INVERSION...WHICH COULD
TRANSLATE INTO 30 MPH WIND GUSTS. NOT SURE HOW MUCH OF THIS WE WILL
ACTUALLY SEE...SINCE THE MIXING COULD AFFECTED BY THE HIGH AND MID
LEVEL CLOUDS...WHICH WILL IN TURN LIMIT HEATING. GUSTINESS WAS
RETAINED FOR THE FORECAST.

FINALLY...AS A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...IT COULD PRODUCE SOME SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. FOR NOW...THE BETTER POTENTIAL LOOKS
TO WAIT UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
THE ABOVE MENTIONED SHORT WAVE SHOULD PASS NORTH OF THE THE AREA
THIS EVENING. NEAR TERM MODEL SHOW SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE SHORT
WAVE (AND THE ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT) ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
THIS EVENING...THEN PERHAPS SOME LAKE CONTRIBUTION OR UPSLOPE
LATER THIS EVENING. IN EITHER CASE...A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL
BE RETAINED FOR THIS EVENING.

ELSEWHERE...THE LOWER CLOUDS SHOULD ERODE...AND THE MID CLOUDS
SHOULD FOLLOW SHORTLY THEREAFTER. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME GUST
POTENTIAL THIS EVENING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...SO MOST PLACES
PROBABLY RETAIN SOME WIND MOST OF THE NIGHT. ANY EVENING CLEARING
SHOULD BE FOLLOWED BY SOME HIGH CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT (ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE SOUTH) AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER SYSTEM IN THE NORTHERN
STREAM.

LOWS WERE BASED MAINLY ON THE WARMER GFS MOS NUMBERS. THE TRANSITION
OF CLOUDINESS...AS WELL AS SOME GRADIENT...SUGGEST LIMITED
RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL OUTSIDE OF PROTECTED LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FAIRLY QUICK PATTERN SHIFTS WILL OCCUR DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE OF RATHER WARM DAYS AFTER A COOL DOWN.
WE START THOUGH WITH A TROUGH IN THE EAST MONDAY, WHICH WILL AMPLIFY
A BIT. THE PATTERN IS FAIRLY FAST THOUGH AS A TROUGH IN THE WEST
WILL ALLOW DOWNSTREAM RIDGING TO BUILD AND PUSH EASTWARD. THIS WILL
ALLOW MUCH MILDER AIR TO SURGE INTO THE REGION UNDER A SOUTHWEST
FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES SITUATED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. A
FAIRLY SHARP COLD FRONT HOWEVER WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY TO PROVIDE A
CHANGE BACK TO COOLER CONDITIONS.

A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM IS STILL FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTH OF OUR REGION
DURING MONDAY. THE GFS AND NAM/WRF APPEAR TO BE ON THE STRONGER SIDE
WITH THE ECMWF WEAKER. THE GFS AND NAM/WRF SEEM TO HAVE MORE OF A
CONVECTIVE LOOK, WHICH MAY BE A REASON WHY THE SOLUTIONS ARE
STRONGER. THE MOISTURE IS GENERALLY LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM, AND
WHILE A RIBBON OF 850 MB TO 700 MB FRONTOGENETIC FORCING SLIDES
ACROSS THE DELMARVA, THE LOWER LEVELS MAY BE DRY ENOUGH TO ERODE ANY
PRECIPITATION ON THE NORTHERN EDGE. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW
STEEPER LOWER LEVEL LAPSE RATES, BUT ALSO NO TOTAL SATURATION IN THE
LOWER LEVELS. THE PRECIPITATION TYPE LOOKS TO BE SNOW BASED ON THE
SOUNDINGS, ALTHOUGH PERHAPS JUST ENOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER WARMTH TO
ALLOW FOR SOME RAIN OR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. THE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE LIGHT, IF IT EVEN GETS THIS FAR NORTH AS THE MAIN LIFT
MIGHT END UP GOING INTO CLOUD PRODUCTION VERSUS ACTUAL
PRECIPITATION. THE SREF PROBABILITY OF GREATER THAN 0.01 OF AN INCH
IS 30 PERCENT OR LESS ACROSS SOUTHERN DELAWARE AND THE VERY NEARBY
AREAS. THE 00Z ECMWF IS SIMILAR WITH ITS WEAKER SURFACE REFLECTION,
AND THE 850 MB TO 700 MB FRONTOGENETIC FORCING BARELY CLIPS SOUTHERN
DELAWARE. SINCE THE CHC OF A LITTLE LIGHT QPF SLIDING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE DELMARVA MONDAY IS ON THE RATHER LOW SIDE, WE JUST
HELD ONTO A SMALL AREA OF SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS. THIS SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO MOVE OUT TO SEA MONDAY NIGHT WITH A PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENING UP IN ITS WAKE. THERE IS A STRONG AREA OF CHANNELIZED
VORTICITY TO SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA, HOWEVER GIVEN DRIER AIR
ADVECTING INTO THE AREA, PERHAPS JUST SOME CLOUDS MAY RESULT.

HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO SETTLE IN DURING TUESDAY WITH THE FLOW
BACKING TO THE WEST AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHWEST. THE AIRMASS IS
FORECAST TO BE MODERATING ALOFT, HOWEVER GIVEN LESS MIXING
ANTICIPATED TUESDAY MAY BE THE COOLEST AFTERNOON. WE MAY GET DECENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH GRADUALLY
SHIFTS TO OUR EAST AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS DECOUPLED IN
CONJUNCTION WITH A DRY LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS.

FOR WEDNESDAY, A CHILLY START THEN A MODERATING TREND WILL OCCUR
AS WAA IS UNDERWAY COURTESY OF A RETURN FLOW AND MID LEVEL RIDGING.
GIVEN THE WAA ALOFT AND THE OVERALL WIND FIELD STRENGTHENING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, SOME FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT
THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY INCREASE ENOUGH UNDER AN INVERSION TO
PERHAPS DEVELOP SOME LOWER CLOUDS. THE LOW-LEVEL MIXING SHOULD WANE
GIVEN A MORE STABLE LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, HOWEVER THIS WILL ALL
HAVE A POTENTIAL IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES. ATTM, WE HAVE LOWER
CONFIDENCE REGARDING THE EXTENT OF ANY LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. DURING THURSDAY, ANY INVERSION SHOULD
MIX OUT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS AND MIXING IS ABLE TO DEEPEN.
GIVEN A DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND SOME ADDITIONAL WARMING ALOFT,
TEMPERATURES COULD END UP BEING WARMER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WHETHER THURSDAY WILL START WITH SOME
LOWER CLOUDS, WE DID NOT WANT TO RAISE TEMPERATURES MUCH FROM
CONTINUITY.

THE NEXT UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE SWINGING TOWARD THE REGION LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. GIVEN THE FORECAST RIDGE TO OUR EAST, THIS
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SHOULD SLOWLY APPROACH. THERE IS A
FAIRLY DECENT THERMAL GRADIENT FORECAST WITH THIS FRONT, AND GIVEN A
STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF IT, A PLUME OF MOISTURE SHOULD ADVECT
NORTHWARD. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE IS MORE ROBUST WITH THE QPF THAN
OTHERS, BUT IT DOES APPEAR THAT AT LEAST A BAND OF SHOWERS ARRIVES
WITH THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS FRONT SHOULD THEN BE
EAST OF OUR AREA SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST. THERE IS LOWER CONFIDENCE THOUGH REGARDING THE FORECAST
TEMPERATURES AND SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY DUE TO
THE SLOWNESS OF THE FRONT. GIVEN THE SLOWER MOVEMENT, THERE COULD BE
A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR ENERGY TO DEVELOP ALONG THE TAIL END OF THE
FRONT WHICH WOULD THEN TRACK NORTHEASTWARD. IT DOES APPEAR THAT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TURNING COOLER SATURDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH ALONG WITH A NORTHERLY WIND.

OVERALL, WE DID NOT MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO CONTINUITY.
TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY WERE MORE OF A MOS BLEND, THEN WE
LEANED MORE TOWARD CONTINUITY WITH A BIT OF A BLENDING IN OF THE
MOSGUIDE.

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...WITH
MAINLY HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS. THE GRADIENT IS STILL IN
PLACE...BUT THIS SHOULD BACK OFF AS A SURFACE FRONT STALLS TO THE
SOUTHEAST.

LOW PRESSURE IS ORGANIZING ON THE FRONT NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST. THE LOW SHOULD REMAIN FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA
TO KEEP THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD OUT OF THE AREA. AS THE LOW DEEPENS
LATE THIS MORNING...THE TIGHTENING GRADIENT SHOULD RESULT IN WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS BECOMING GUSTY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THE POTENTIAL
FOR GUST TO 25 KNOTS BETWEEN 1700 AND 2300 UTC.

VFR CEILINGS WILL LOWER THIS AFTERNOON TO ABOUT 5000 FEET...AND THIS
LAYER WILL REMAIN PLACE INTO THIS EVENING. THE LOWER CLOUDS SHOULD
ERODE THIS EVENING...WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS ABOVE THAT. THE
GUSTY WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER 0000 UTC...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH 1200 UTC MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...GENERALLY VFR AS A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM SLIDES
TO OUR SOUTH MONDAY. IT APPEARS THAT ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION STAYS
SOUTH OF ALL OF OUR TERMINALS. A NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND HOWEVER
SHOULD INCREASE FOR A TIME BEHIND THIS FEATURE, THEN LESS WIND
TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SETTLE IN.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO OUR EAST ALLOWING
FOR A STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY WIND. THIS SHOULD TURN GUSTY AT
TIMES ESPECIALLY DURING EACH AFTERNOON AS MIXING IS MORE EFFICIENT.
THE MOISTURE SHOULD BE ON THE INCREASE LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY,
HOWEVER THERE IS LOWER CONFIDENCE WHETHER OR NOT THIS LEADS TO AREAS
OF LOWER CLOUDS AND/OR SOME FOG.

.MARINE...
SEAS HAVE DROPPED BELOW 5 FEET ON THE OCEAN...AND THE SMALL CRAFT
THERE WAS CANCELLED. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR TONIGHT
FOR THE OCEAN WATERS AND THE LOWER DELAWARE BAY. DETAILS ARE
CONTAINED BELOW.

A COLD FRONT OVER THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY AND THE GREAT LAKES
WILL DROP TOWARD THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON...AND LIMP ACROSS THE
WATERS THIS EVENING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THE GRADIENT WILL START TO
TIGHTEN...AND WESTERLY GUSTS COULD GET CLOSE TO 25 KNOTS ON THE
OCEAN WATERS (ESPECIALLY NEARSHORE) BY EVENING.

THE BEST GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT OCCURS THIS EVENING INTO THE
EARLY PART OF THE OVERNIGHT. THE 925 FLOW SHOULD 25 TO 30 KNOTS OF
WIND AVAILABLE DURING THIS TIME...AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THE DEPTH
OF THE MIXED LAYER SUFFICIENTLY DEEP TO TAP THESE WINDS. SMALL CRAFT
WIND GUSTS SHOULD OCCUR ON ALL OCEAN WATERS...AND THE LOWER DELAWARE
BAY. THE FLOW STARTS TO BACK OFF AFTER 0900 UTC...AND BY 1200 UTC
THE SMALL CRAFT WIND GUSTS SHOULD DROP BACK BELOW 25 KNOTS.

A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM QUICKLY TRACKS TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN TO OUR EAST,
THEREFORE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP IN RESPONSE LATER
MONDAY. THIS ALONG WITH SOME CAA MAY ALLOW THE WINDS TO RAMP UP TO
ADVISORY LEVELS FOR A TIME MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN SETTLES
ACROSS OUR AREA TUESDAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS EVENTUALLY BECOMING
SOUTHERLY. THE SURFACE HIGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED TO OUR EAST
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WHICH WILL MAINTAIN A SOUTHERLY FLOW. THE
AIRMASS WILL BE MODERATING, THEREFORE THE DEPTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL
MIXING MAY BECOME LESS DESPITE THE WIND FIELD ABOVE THE SURFACE
GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING. IF WE CAN MIX ENOUGH LATER WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY, THEN GUSTS MAY REACH ADVISORY LEVELS.

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST MONDAY
FOR ANZ431-450>455.

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...GIGI/HAYES
SHORT TERM...HAYES
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/HAYES
MARINE...GORSE/HAYES

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ

1209 AM EST SUN MAR 4 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ON THE COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT MOVED THROUGH THE REGION EARLIER ON SATURDAY AND PASS
WELL EAST OF NEW JERSEY TODAY. A WEAK CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SHOULD PASS OFF THE VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL BORDER ON
MONDAY. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE ROCKIES WILL REACH THE
EASTERN SEABOARD ABOUT TUESDAY AND THEN SLOWLY DRIFT OFFSHORE
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT SHOULD
APPROACH THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE BY SATURDAY.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DEVELOPING SURFACE WAVE ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST HAS REACHED
SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA EARLY THIS MORNING. NORTH OF THAT POINT THE
AIRMASS IS FAIRLY DRY (KWAL WAS FAIRLY DRY AT 0000 UTC...AND KIAD
WAS VERY DRY). THIS WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING
IN THE STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WILL STAY
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST 0900 UTC...SO MOST OF THE
MENTION OF PRECIPITATION WAS DROPPED FROM THE FORECAST FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. A MENTION WAS RETAINED FOR SOUTHEAST DELAWARE...
THOUGH THIS COULD BE GENEROUS...BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR RUN.

OTHERWISE...MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS FOR THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. THERE IS STILL SOME GRADIENT IN PLACE...AND ONLY PROTECTED
LOCATIONS HAVE GONE CALM TO THIS POINT. THE COMBINATION OF CLOUDS
AND LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST GRADIENT SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES
FAIRLY UNIFORM OUTSIDE OF THE PROTECTED LOCATIONS. THIS IS
REFLECTED IN THE CURRENT TEMPERATURE FORECAST...SO LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF CHANGE WAS MADE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
ON SUNDAY, THE LOW PRESSURE THAT DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT OFFSHORE
SHOULD MOVE FURTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA. THIS SHOULD TAKE ANY
REMAINING PRECIPITATION OUT TO SEA WITH IT DURING THE DAY. BY THE
AFTERNOON, ANY PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS SHOULD BE
ENDING.

AS WE MOVE INTO THE AFTERNOON, A BROAD TROUGH ALOFT BEGINS TO SWING
TOWARD OUR AREA, ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY. WITH THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE AREA
THAT COMBINED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, SOME RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MAY
AFFECT OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES, AND SOME FLURRIES OR SPRINKLES MAY
MOVE AS FAR SOUTH AS THE PHILLY METRO AREA. MOST OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE KEEPS ANY PRECIPITATION LIGHT AND MOSTLY CONFINED TO OUR
NORTHWESTERN ZONES. AS WITH THIS TIME OF YEAR, IF ANY SNOW OCCURS IN
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS, IT COULD BECOME MEASURABLE. RIGHT NOW WE
WOULD NOT EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN A HALF AN INCH OR SO FOR THE
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD START AND A MILDER FINISH TO THE LONG TERM. PRETTY CONFIDENT
ABOUT WARMER THAN NORMAL WEATHER END OF THE WEEK AS ALL OF THE
FORECAST TELECONNECTION INDICES (POS NAO AND EPO, NEG PNA) AND THE
MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION ENTERING PHASE 4 ARE IN EXCELLENT
CORROBORATIVE AGREEMENT. AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM WE LEANED
MORE TOWARD THE GFS THAN THE WRF-NNMB OFF ITS BETTER INITIALIZATION.

A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY OR TROF WILL BE WORKING ITS WAY INTO
OUR CWA AS SUNDAY NIGHT BEGINS. THERE IS A HINT OF A BIT OF
RELATIVELY HIGHER INSTABILITY DURING SUNDAY EVENING NORTH AND WE
CARRIED CHANCE POPS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. IT WOULD NOT BE OUT OF
THE QUESTION FOR A COATING IN THOSE AREAS. ELSEWHERE THE COMBINATION
OF SOME CLOUDINESS AND WINDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM BOTTOMING
AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE CURRENT STAT GUIDANCE AND FORECAST.

NO CHANGE TO MONDAY`S FORECAST AS OUR CWA SHOULD BE ALONG THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM. MOST OF THE GFS`S
DIAGNOSTICS FOR HEAVIER PCPN ARE SOUTH OF OUR CWA: THETA E RDG, H2.5
AND H7 JETS, ISENTROPIC LIFT 850MB-700MB, TROWAL AND MID LEVEL FGEN
AXIS. THE ONE FEATURE THAT IS FARTHER TO THE NORTH IS THE FCST MID
LVL QVEC CONVERGENCE WHICH JUST GETS INTO OUR CWA. THERE IS A
CONVECTIVE "LOOK" TO THE PCPN AS THERE WILL BE FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE
RATES BETWEEN 850MB AND 500MB. THE PROBLEM FOR OUR CWA IS THAT MOST
OF THE LOW LEVEL SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT IS SOUTH, SO WHILE THE
ATMOSPHERE WOULD BE CONDUCIVE, THE TRIGGER IS MISSING. THICKNESS
VALUES ALONE PTYPE WOULD BE SNOW. BUT BECAUSE THE BOUNDARY LAYER
SHOULD BE WARM, WE CARRIED MIXED PCPN. IN A PERFECT SCENARIO WORLD
THE PCPN WOULD BE RAIN WHEN LIGHT AND CHANGE TO SNOW WITH ANY
INCREASE IN INTENSITY. WE WERE CONSERVATIVE WITH MAX TEMPS
BASED ON FCST 925MB TEMPS.

THE CLIPPER TYPE LOW PASSES OFFSHORE ON MONDAY NIGHT AND THE
GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO TIGHTEN AGAIN. THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY
SUBSTANTIAL CHANNELIZED VORT LOBE FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH. THE
FORECAST AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS VERY LOW, SO BASICALLY THAT VORT
WOULD BE SPINNING CONDENSATION NUCLEI. WE DID NOT BOTTOM THE MINS
FOR THE SAME REASON AS SUNDAY NIGHT, ALTHOUGH A SLIGHTLY FASTER
SOLUTION WOULD BRING BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS INTO OUR
CWA. A SUNNY DAY IS FORECAST FOR TUESDAY. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT, SO
SHOULD NOT MIX SOME OF THE WARMER AIR ALOFT DOWNWARD. AGAIN WE WERE
PRETTY CONSERVATIVE WITH MAX TEMPS. THEN IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY NIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES.

AFTER A CHILLY START TO WEDNESDAY, THE MODERATING TREND WILL START
AND WE WENT ABOVE STAT GUIDANCE AWAY FROM THE SHORE. FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT MINS, THEY WERE INCREASED. WE FOLLOWED A 50/50 COMPROMISE
BETWEEN HPC AND CONTINUITY AS NOT CONFIDENT ABOUT EITHER LOW CLOUDS
FORMING OR WINDS BEING STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT SOME RADIATIONAL
COOLING. WHETHER THE LOW CLOUDS FORM OR NOT, THE STRONG SOUTHWEST
FLOW AND THE LACK OF A FORECAST INVERSION SHOULD GIVE US SOME DEEPER
MIXING AND THUS WE WENT ABOVE STAT GUIDANCE AGAIN FOR MAX TEMPS ON
THURSDAY.

THE COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING AND PASSING THROUGH OUR CWA ON OR
ABOUT FRIDAY. THE MODEL TREND WAS SLIGHTLY FASTER OFF THE 00Z RUN
BUT NOW SLOWED AGAIN WITH THE 12Z RUN. LESS CONFIDENCE THAN AVERAGE
ABOUT THE FORECAST TEMPS AND SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THERE IS ALSO A DIFFERENCE AS TO HOW WET AND WAVY A SYSTEM
THIS WILL BE. THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BEHIND IT IS TAKING MORE OF A
NORTHERN ROUTE TO ARRIVE, SO TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL BACK TO
SEASONAL LEVELS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WHETHER ITS
ON SATURDAY OR SUNDAY.

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH
MAINLY HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS. THE GRADIENT IS STILL IN
PLACE...BUT THIS SHOULD BACK OFF AS A SURFACE FRONT STALLS TO THE
SOUTHEAST.

OUTLOOK...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL INTO WEDNESDAY.
THERE COULD BE SOME SNOW SHOWERS NORTH OF OUR TERMINALS ON SUNDAY
NIGHT. A WEAK SYSTEM SHOULD PASS SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS ON MONDAY,
WITH A CHANCE OF SOME MVFR CIGS OR VSBYS IN DELMARVA. THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR MVFR CONDITIONS WOULD BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY
MORNING AS RETURN FLOW AROUND A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS SOME
LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA.

.MARINE...
HAVE DROPPED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON DELAWARE BAY SINCE WINDS
ARE BELOW CRITERIA AND SHOULD REMAIN SO AT LEAST THROUGH SUNDAY.
WINDS HAVE ALSO DROPPED BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA ON OUR OCEAN WATERS,
BUT SEAS ARE STILL ABOVE 5 FT. THE ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT
THERE THROUGH THE NIGHT, ALTHOUGH THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT FORECASTER
COULD LOWER IT IF SEAS DROP0- BELOW CRITERIA.

ON SUNDAY, THE WINDS AND WAVES ARE FORECAST TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OFFSHORE SHOULD BE WEAK ENOUGH NOT TO SIGNIFICANTLY
INCREASE WINDS, AND WINDS FROM ALOFT SHOULD NOT MIX DOWN TO CREATE
WIND GUSTS MORE THAN 20 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
WINDS COULD RAMP UP TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AGAIN ON SUNDAY
NIGHT, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW
ON THE FRONT. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS ON MONDAY AND POSSIBLY REACH THEM AGAIN AS THE CLIPPER TYPE
LOW MOVES OFFSHORE ON MONDAY NIGHT. GREATER CHANCE ON THE OCEAN VS
DELAWARE BAY. THEN TRANQUIL CONDITIONS FOR MARCH ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. WE MIGHT COME CLOSER TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
WE DO HAVE SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA GUSTS BEING REACHED IN THE
DETERMINISTIC FORECAST, BUT ADMITTEDLY CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH AS THE
INCREASINGLY WARMER AIR MASS MAY CAP THE ABILITY FOR THESE STRONGER
GUSTS TO MIX DOWN.

.EQUIPMENT...
THE KDIX WSR 88D IS BACK IN SERVICE. THE PHL TDWR REMAINS
UNAVAILABLE.

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

SYNOPSIS...GIGI/GORSE
NEAR TERM...HAYES
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...GIGI
AVIATION...GIGI/HAYES
MARINE...GIGI/ROBERTSON
EQUIPMENT...GIGI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LINCOLN IL

1131 AM CST SUN MAR 4 2012

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1026 AM CST SUN MAR 4 2012

CLIPPER SYSTEM CURRENTLY CENTERED IN EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.
REGIONAL RADAR MOSAICS SHOWING ECHOES EXTENDING ALL THE WAY INTO
SOUTHEAST IOWA...BUT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWING LIGHT SNOW ONLY
TO ABOUT DES MOINES. 12Z HRRR IS A BIT FASTER THAN THE NAM IN
SPREADING PRECIPITATION INTO WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT BOTH AGREE THAT AREAS AROUND CHAMPAIGN AND
DANVILLE WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY UNTIL CLOSER TO SUNSET.

PRECIPITATION TYPE REMAINS A CONCERN. LARGELY AM EXPECTING SNOW...
WITH PERHAPS A BIT OF RAIN MIXED IN INITIALLY BEFORE EVAPORATIVE
COOLING RAPIDLY TAKES PLACE. THE SOUTHEAST CWA IS THE BIGGEST
QUESTION MARK. AFTER LOOKING AT FORECAST SOUNDINGS...HAVE TRENDED
TO RAIN OR SNOW IN THE GRIDS SOUTH OF I-70 FOR THIS AFTERNOON. WILL
NEED TO WATCH TEMPERATURES CLOSELY...DUE TO THE EXPANSIVE SUNSHINE
OCCURRING THIS MORNING...AS IT MAY END UP BEING MORE RAIN THAN
SNOW DURING THE DAYLIGHT IN THAT AREA.

UPDATED ZONES/GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT.

GEELHART

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1130 AM CST SUN MAR 4 2012

MAIN FOCUS WITH THIS TAF SET IS WITH DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW LATER
THIS AFTERNOON...AND ASSOCIATED LOWER CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES.
CURRENT THINKING REMAINS THAT KSPI WILL BE MOST IMPACTED...
BEGINNING AROUND 20-21Z. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS OVER NORTHWEST
IOWA AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA SHOWING VISIBLITIES BELOW A MILE IN
THE HEAVIER SNOW BANDS...WITH RUC/HRRR SHOWING POTENTIAL
VISIBILITIES BELOW 2 MILES CONTINUING THROUGH JUST PAST 00Z AS FAR
SOUTHEAST AS KSPI. WILL LIKELY SEE CEILINGS FALL AS LOW AS 1000
FEET IN THE HEAVIER BANDS. EASTERN TAF SITES FROM KPIA-KCMI WILL
LIKELY BE MORE ON THE FRINGES OF THE SNOW BANDS...BUT PERIODS OF
VISIBILITIES 3-4SM ARE STILL LIKELY THERE. SHOULD SEE THE
PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE TAF SITES BY ABOUT 04Z. MOST LOCATIONS
WILL SEE CEILINGS RISE TO VFR RANGE BY ABOUT 09Z...BEFORE CLOUDS
SCATTER OUT.

GEELHART

.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 313 AM CST SUN MAR 4 2012

RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER
TROF IS A LITTLE SLOW TO PROGRESS OUT OF THE MIDWEST...AND WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM PUSHES OUT OF THE CANADIAN
ROCKIES DOWN INTO THE SYNOPTIC TROF TODAY AND TONIGHT BRINGING SNOW
CHANCES FOR MUCH OF THE CWA...WITH THE HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED
SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM PEORIA TO PARIS. MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT OVERALL THROUGH MIDWEEK. ISSUES IN THE FORECAST CROP UP IN
THE EXTENDED WHEN ANOTHER TROF/LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVE OUT OF THE
ROCKIES AND SRN PLAINS...AND UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. PREVIOUS
MODEL RUNS HAVE HAD SOME SIGNIFICANT ISSUES DISCERNING THE BEHAVIOR
ULTIMATELY OF THE UPPER LOW...WITH THE GFS MOST NOTABLY CLOSING OFF
THE LOW AND STALLING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE MID MISS RIVER
VALLEY UP INTO THE APPALACHIANS. ECMWF WAS MORE PROGRESSIVE OVERALL
IN PUSHING THE SYSTEM OUT QUICKLY. HOWEVER...THIS MODEL RUN BRINGS
THE ECMWF IN LINE WITH A CLOSED OFF LOW OVER THE SRN HALF OF THE
CONUS. NOT WILLING TO JUMP ON THE NEW RUN JUST YET...BUT WILL PRIME
THE FORECAST FOR A FEW ADJUSTMENTS IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK
WEEK.

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
A QUICK CLIPPER SYSTEM IS PUSHING INTO THE MIDWEST THIS
MORNING/AFTERNOON...BRINGING SNOW AFTER NOON AND THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
PRECIP MAY START OUT AS RAIN IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE SWRN HALF
OF THE STATE...BUT THERMAL PROFILES QUICKLY MOVE OVER TO ALL SNOW IN
BOTH THE GFS AND THE NAM. 06Z HPC QPF PUTS THE FORECAST IN EXCESS OF
THE 2 INCH RANGE...BUT WITH SOME RAIN EXPECTED EARLY AND A SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENT TO THE QPF IN THE OVERNIGHT...BRINGS THE SNOW BACK TO A
1-2 INCH SCENARIO. TEMPS SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER NOW WITH THE SYSTEM
OVERALL. ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS BRIEFLY STICK AROUND IN THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS PRIOR TO 22Z-00Z BEFORE EVAPORATIVE COOLING AND
RATHER QUICK SATURATION OF THE COLUMN SHOULD HELP TO SWITCH MOST OF
THE PRECIP OVER TO SNOWFALL. SNOW SHOULD BE WRAPPING UP JUST PRIOR
TO MIDNIGHT AS THE CLIPPER MOVES OUT INTO THE LARGER SCALE TROF AND
EXITS THE REGION.

LONG TERM...TOMORROW THROUGH SATURDAY...
WARMING TREND DELAYED A BIT MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO THE MIDWEST AND ERN HALF OF THE CONUS. HOWEVER...TUES AND WED
LIKELY TO SEE TEMPS AROUND AND ABOVE 60 WITH PLENTY OF SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND LLVL WAA KICKING IN IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS MON NIGHT. WINDY
CONDITIONS PREVAIL FOR TUESDAY AS THE MIDWEST GETS CAUGHT BETWEEN A
STUBBORN RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC STATES AND ANOTHER VIGOROUS WAVE
DIGGING IN OVER THE ROCKIES. AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT BRINGS PRECIP
TO THE REGION WITH THE INITIAL LARGE TROF. PRECIP...RAIN OR
SNOW...WED NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. KEEPING FRIDAY POPS AWAY
STILL...BECAUSE THE MODELS HAVE PREVIOUSLY BEEN IN CONFLICT OVER ONE
POINT. THE GFS CUTS OFF THE 500 MB LOW...PUSHING A WARM FRONTAL
FEATURE INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THE MORE
PROGRESSIVE ECMWF HAS BEEN EXITING THE SYSTEM ALTOGETHER...NEVER
FORMING THE CUT OFF 500 MB LOW. HOWEVER...THE 00Z RUN SEEMS TO BE
GOING THE WAY OF THE GFS. NEXT ISSUE WILL BE A MATTER OF HOW FAR
NORTH ANY WARM FRONT ACTUALLY SETS UP WITH A LINGERING CUT OFF LOW
IN THE SW.

HJS

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LINCOLN IL

1028 AM CST SUN MAR 4 2012

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1026 AM CST SUN MAR 4 2012

UPDATED ZONES/GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT.

GEELHART

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 518 AM CST SUN MAR 4 2012

ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE MIDWEST
LATER TODAY...WITH THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE LOW TAKING A TRACK FROM
THE DAKOTAS TO SOUTHEASTERN MO TO SOUTHERN KY. BAND OF SNOW TO THE
LEFT OF THE TRACK WILL AFFECT SPI THE STRONGEST WITH MVFR TEMPO IFR
CONDITIONS...WITH OTHER SITES FURTHER NORTH/EAST GETTING A MORE
GLANCING BLOW WITH MAINLY MVFR. WILL START THE SNOW AT PIA/SPI AROUND
22Z...AND A LITTLE LATER FOR BMI/DEC/CMI. THE SNOW WILL BE MOVING
PAST THE TERMINALS BY 06Z...LEAVING BEHIND SOME MVFR STRATOCU WHICH
WILL THEN CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 06Z. WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY
AROUND 10 KT BEFORE THE SNOW ARRIVES...LIGHT NORTHERLY AS THE LOW
MAKES ITS PASS TO THE WEST LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING...THEN NORTHWEST
10-15 KT AFTER 06Z.

.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 313 AM CST SUN MAR 4 2012

HJS

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN

325 PM EST SUN MAR 4 2012

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

.SYNOPSIS...
A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY TONIGHT. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD IN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A FRONTAL
SYSTEM MAY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE LATTER PARTS OF THE
WEEK...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
CLIPPER SYSTEM CURRENTLY DROPPING THROUGH WESTERN IOWA EXPECTED TO
PUSH ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF INDIANA LATER TONIGHT BASED ON
SHORT TERM MODEL DATA. ALTHOUGH SYSTEM IS SMALL...IT BE WILL RIDING
ALONG A STRONG TEMPERATURE GRADIENT...SO THERE MAY BE A SHORT PERIOD
OF STRONG LIFT WITH THIS FEATURE. FEW REPORTS OF MODERATE/HEAVY SNOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM BEAR THIS OUT. APPEARS LIFT WILL BE
MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST ZONES AFTER ABOUT 050100Z. WILL GO WITH
LIKELY POPS OVER THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THE MID
EVENING HOURS...TAPERING TO CHANCE POPS NORTHEAST. THICKNESSES
SUGGEST MOSTLY SNOW...BUT THERE MAY BE PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIPITATION
OR RAIN AT THE ONSET OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR 2
TO 3 INCHES OF SNOWFALL NEAR THE FAR SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE
FORECAST AREA...BUT AMOUNTS WILL TAPER OFF QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST
DUE TO THE COMPACT NATURE OF THE SYSTEM. LIFT TAPERS OFF QUITE A BIT
BY 050900Z...SO MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD END PRIOR TO
SUNRISE.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESS PROGS SUGGEST THE GFS MOS LOWS TONIGHT MAY BE A
COUPLE OF DEGREES ON THE COOL SIDE. WILL NUDGE UP THE LOWS A BIT.

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND TUESDAY/...
LOOKS LIKE A RATHER QUIET SHORT TERM AS THE MODELS SUGGEST
SUBSTANTIAL HEIGHT RISES AS LONG WAVE TROUGH PUSHES OFF TO THE
EAST...AND THE NEXT TROUGH DIGS INTO THE ROCKIES. DON/T SEE MUCH
OF A PRECIPITATION THREAT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH AND LAYERED RELATIVE HUMIDITY
PANELS OFF THE MODELS QUITE DRY. TUESDAY MAY BE WINDY AS MODELS
SUGGEST A LOW LEVEL JET 45-60 KTS MAY BE IN THE AREA COUPLED WITH
POTENTIAL FOR GOOD MIXING.

PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUGGEST THE GFS MOS HIGHS ON MONDAY
MAY BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES ON THE WARM SIDE...OTHERWISE THE GUIDANCE
DOESN/T LOOK TOO BAD.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MILD WINDY WEATHER CONTINUES TO BEGIN MIDWEEK AS THE OHIO VALLEY
REMAINS WEDGED BETWEEN THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. PRESENCE OF THE LARGE HIGH OFF TO THE EAST WILL ENSURE A
DRY DAY WEDNESDAY WITH A STEADY INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND MOISTURE TO
THE WEST AS THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY BEGINS TO TAP INTO NORTHWARD
ADVECTING GULF MOISTURE.

WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED TO EXPAND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE BOUNDARY PROGRESSES THROUGH THE
REGION. THE HIGH OFF TO THE EAST AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE SURFACE FRONT WILL CAUSE THE BOUNDARY TO ONLY SLOWLY
DROP THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA...WITH RAIN NOT LIKELY TO CLEAR THE
FORECAST AREA UNTIL FRIDAY. WITH PLENTIFUL FORCING ALOFT AND LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AVAILABLE...FELT COMFORTABLE IN MAINTAINING LIKELY
POPS. LEAVING ANY MENTION OF THUNDER OUT AT THIS TIME AS MODEL
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY
ALOFT. DUE TO THE PROLONGED PERIOD WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE
AREA AND WITH PROGGED PRECIP WATER VALUES APPROACHING 1.25 INCHES ON
THURSDAY...ANTICIPATE THIS WILL BE A SOAKING RAINFALL WITH POTENTIAL
FOR 1 TO 1.5 INCHES BY FRIDAY FOR MUCH OF THE REGION.

SOME DISCREPANCIES DEVELOPS BETWEEN THE OP GFS/GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND
THE EURO/UKMET/GGEM FOR THE WEEKEND AND FOCUS LARGELY ON THE
HANDLING OF THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST U S. OP GFS/GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN EJECTING THIS SYSTEM EAST INTO THE PLAINS CAUSING THE
BOUNDARY TO HANG FURTHER NORTH WITH A NEW SURFACE WAVE BEING
GENERATED AND SPREADING RAINFALL BACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FOR MUCH
OF THE WEEKEND. PREFER THE MORE CONSISTENT EURO/UKMET/GGEM CONSENSUS
AT THIS TIME WHICH SPREADS LARGE HIGH PRESSURE AND A COOL DRY
AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND AS THE BOUNDARY IS
FORCED WELL SOUTH AND UPPER ENERGY HOLDS BACK OVER THE SOUTHWEST U
S.

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 042100Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...

MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO KIND TAF PER OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER
CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

VFR CONDITIONS INTO EARLY EVENING...MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
OVERNIGHT.

UPPER LEVEL WAVE THAT HAS CONTRIBUTED TO STRATOCU AND FLURRIES/
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING IS SHIFTING EAST INTO OHIO AT THIS
TIME. PRESENCE OF COLD POOL ALOFT HOWEVER FAVORING A WESTWARD
EXPANSION TO STRATOCU ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL INDIANA.
WHILE THE SUN MAY POKE OUT AT THE TERMINALS BRIEFLY OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS...SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CEILINGS AT
4-5KFT. WESTERLY WINDS AT 10-15KTS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE DURATION
OF THE AFTERNOON WITH A SPORADIC HIGHER GUST NEAR 20KTS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION.

CLOUD SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING CLIPPER CURRENTLY ACROSS
WESTERN IOWA WILL EXPAND INTO MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE
AFTERNOON. HRRR HAS A NICE HANDLE ON SPREADING THE SWATH OF LIGHT
SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER INTO THE LOWER WABASH VALLEY
AFTER 23Z. AT THIS POINT...THE TRACK OF THE HEAVIER SNOW LIKELY TO
REMAIN SOUTH OF ALL TERMINALS WITH KBMG AND POSSIBLY KHUF LIKELY
TO SNEAK INTO MVFR VISIBILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN FLANK
OF THE LIGHT SNOW LATER THIS EVENING. SHOULD BE A VERY SHARP
CUTOFF TO THE SNOW FURTHER NORTH WITH KIND LIKELY TO ONLY SEE
FLURRIES AND KLAF POTENTIALLY REMAINING DRY. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO
SHOW MVFR CEILINGS AROUND 2500FT EXPANDING BACK ACROSS THE
TERMINALS OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW VEERS TO A N/NW
DIRECTION WITH PASSAGE OF THE LOW. LOWER CEILINGS WILL REMAIN
THROUGH DAYBREAK UNTIL TRAILING UPPER WAVE AXIS CAN SHIFT EAST OF
THE REGION. CYCLONIC FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER WAVE AND
FAVORABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WILL ENCOURAGE CONTINUED VFR
STRATOCU/CU DEVELOPMENT OVER THE REGION INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON
BEFORE DRIER AIR BUILDS IN AND ENABLES CLOUD COVERAGE TO DIMINISH.

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...RYAN/JH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN

255 PM EST SUN MAR 4 2012

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESS PROGS SUGGEST THE GFS MOS LOWS TONIGHT MAY BE A
COUPLE OF DEGREES ON THE COOL SIDE. WILL NUDGE UP THE LOWS A BIT.

PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUGGEST THE GFS MOS HIGHS ON MONDAY
MAY BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES ON THE WARM SIDE...OTHERWISE THE GUIDANCE
DOESN/T LOOK TOO BAD.

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 041800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

VFR CONDITIONS INTO EARLY EVENING...MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
OVERNIGHT.

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...RYAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN

233 PM EST SUN MAR 4 2012

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT...
CLIPPER SYSTEM CURRENTLY DROPPING THROUGH WESTERN IOWA EXPECTED TO
PUSH ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF INDIANA LATER TONIGHT BASED ON
SHORT TERM MODEL DATA. ALTHOUGH SYSTEM IS SMALL...IT BE WILL RIDING
ALONG A STRONG TEMPERATURE GRADIENT...SO THERE MAY BE A SHORT PERIOD
OF STRONG LIFT WITH THIS FEATURE. FEW REPORTS OF MODERATE/HEAVY SNOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM BEAR THIS OUT. APPEARS LIFT WILL BE
MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST ZONES AFTER ABOUT 050100Z. WILL GO WITH
LIKELY POPS OVER THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THE MID
EVENING HOURS...TAPERING TO CHANCE POPS NORTHEAST. THICKNESSES
SUGGEST MOSTLY SNOW...BUT THERE MAY BE PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIPITATION
OR RAIN AT THE ONSET OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR 2
TO 3 INCHES OF SNOWFALL NEAR THE FAR SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE
FORECAST AREA...BUT AMOUNTS WILL TAPER OFF QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST
DUE TO THE COMPACT NATURE OF THE SYSTEM. LIFT TAPERS OFF QUITE A BIT
BY 050900Z...SO MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD END PRIOR TO
SUNRISE.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESS PROGS SUGGEST THE GFS MOS LOWS TONIGHT MAY BE A
COUPLE OF DEGREES ON THE COOL SIDE. WILL NUDGE UP THE LOWS A BIT.

.SHORT TERM / MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOOKS LIKE A RATHER QUIET SHORT TERM AS THE MODELS SUGGEST
SUBSTANTIAL HEIGHT RISES AS LONG WAVE TROUGH PUSHES OFF TO THE
EAST...AND THE NEXT TROUGH DIGS INTO THE ROCKIES. DON/T SEE MUCH OF
A PRECIPITATION THREAT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH AND LAYERED RELATIVE HUMIDITY PANELS
OFF THE MODELS QUITE DRY. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MAY BE WINDY AS
MODELS SUGGEST A LOW LEVEL JET 45-60 KTS MAY BE IN THE AREA COUPLED
WITH POTENTIAL FOR GOOD MIXING.

PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUGGEST THE GFS MOS HIGHS ON MONDAY
MAY BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES ON THE WARM SIDE...OTHERWISE THE GUIDANCE
DOESN/T LOOK TOO BAD.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

MAIN CHALLENGE TO THE EXTENDED WILL BE TEMPERATURE AND POP TRENDS BY
FRIDAY. THE NEW 00Z ECMWF IS NOW NOT AS AMPLIFIED WITH A NORTHERN
STREAM TROUGH THAT SWINGS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY...WHILE
THE 00Z GFS AND GEFS ARE A BIT MORE AMPLIFIED LEANING A BIT CLOSER
TO THE EURO. MODELS ALSO NOW ARE CLOSE IN TIMING ON BRINGING A FRONT
SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON THURSDAY WITH MODERATE QPF
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AND LINGERING POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTH ON
FRIDAY MORNING. THE 00Z ECMWF BEING NOT AS AMPLIFIED AS PREVIOUS
RUNS IS NOW NOT AS COLD AS ITS 12Z RUN OR THE 00Z GEM...BUT STILL
COLDER THAN THE GFS...AND THE CENTRAL REGION INITIALIZATION EXTENDED
SEEMED TO GO ALONG WITH THE EURO TREND ON TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. TO WRAP IT UP...RIDGING WILL ALLOW FOR DRY AND MILD
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WITH SHOWERS MOVING IN AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THURSDAY WILL SEE THE MILD
TEMPERATURES PRIOR TO COLD FRONT. THEN...IT APPEARS THE SHOWERS WILL
BE ENDING FRIDAY MORNING SOUTH WITH MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND
DRY WEATHER FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AS COOL CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 041800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

VFR CONDITIONS INTO EARLY EVENING...MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
OVERNIGHT.

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...RYAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN

1215 PM EST SUN MAR 4 2012

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

.SYNOPSIS...

A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL DIVE JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA INTO TONIGHT...BRINGING SOME SNOW TO PARTS OF THE
AREA. LATER IN THE WEEK A COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN TO THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT COLD EARLY THIS WEEK...BUT WARM TO
ABOVE AVERAGE BY MID WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...

UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY PASSING THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA RESULTING IN
SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE NORTHEAST ZONES. WILL ADD
SCATTERED SHOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTHEAST THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY WHEN
TROUGH SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA.

OTHERWISE...SHORT TERM MODEL DATA INDICATE VERY STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...SO SOME LIGHT INSTABILITY
SHOWERS OF RAIN OR SNOW MAY DEVELOP LATER TODAY. WILL KEEP POPS
AS IS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. APPEARS LIFT FROM SYSTEM CURRENTLY
DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN MIDWEST MAY ARRIVE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHWEST ZONES...SO THE HIGHER POPS IN
THOSE AREAS STILL WARRANTED.

PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUGGEST THE FORECAST HIGHS FOR TODAY
STILL LOOK GOOD FOR THE MOST PART...SO NO CHANGES THERE AT THIS TIME.

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

FOCUS IS ON CLIPPER SYSTEM TONIGHT. MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH MOST FEATURES. NAM/GFS MAY BE OVERDOING THE QPF
FROM THE CLIPPER GIVEN NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE WITH THE
SYSTEM. TRENDED TOWARD THE DRIER SREF MEAN AND THE ECMWF.

ISENTROPIC LIFT AND SOME ADDITIONAL LIFT PROVIDED BY AN UPPER JET
SHOULD BRING MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. TYPICALLY THERE IS A TIGHT GRADIENT WITH
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH CLIPPERS. THUS WENT LIKELY POPS
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH...WITH LOW CHANCE CATEGORY CENTRAL...AND
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS NORTH.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT SNOW SHOULD BE THE MAIN
PRECIPITATION TYPE. CANNOT RULE OUT A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW AT THE
ONSET ACROSS THE SOUTH...BUT AS TEMPERATURES QUICKLY COOL TO THE
WET BULB TEMPERATURES PRECIPITATION SHOULD BECOME SNOW.

GIVEN THE RELATIVELY LIMITED MOISTURE...WENT 1 TO MAYBE 2 INCHES
OF SNOW IN THE FAR SOUTH...WITH LESS THAN INCH NORTH OF A TERRE
HAUTE TO COLUMBUS LINE. GIVEN CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION STUCK WITH
A BLEND OF MODEL OUTPUT FOR LOWS.

FORCING WILL BE WELL EAST OF THE AREA BY MONDAY SO CONTINUED WITH
A DRY FORECAST THEN. WARM ADVECTION WILL KICK IN DURING THE
DAY...ERODING ANY LINGERING CLOUDS DURING THE DAY. GIVEN CLOUDS
AND POSSIBLE SNOW COVER TO START THE DAY WENT BELOW THE MAV MOS
FOR HIGHS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS. GENERALLY STUCK WITH A
BLEND OF MODELS FOR TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 041800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

VFR CONDITIONS INTO EARLY EVENING...MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
OVERNIGHT.

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...JAS
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...RYAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL

1114 AM CST SUN MAR 4 2012

.AVIATION...
A FAST MOVING AND SMALL STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHT
TO MODERATE SNOW TO SOUTHEAST IOWA THIS AFTERNOON. CID AND MLI
WILL BE AT THE EDGE OF THIS SNOW SYSTEM...AND MAY EXPERIENCE A
BRIEF LIGHT SNOW VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AROUND 5 MILES THIS
AFTERNOON. BRL...WILL SEE MODERATE SNOW POTENTIALLY FOR A PERIOD
FROM 20Z TO 00Z THIS AFTERNOON. VISIBILITIES OF 1/2 TO 1 MILE WILL
BE COMMON AT BRL. DBQ...AND THE REST OF NORTHEAST IOWA WILL LIKELY
REMAIN SNOW FREE...AND VFR. AFTER 02Z...ALL SITES WILL BE VFR
THROUGH THE REST OF TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING WILL BE UNDER 10KTS FROM THE
WEST...TONIGHT...NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 TO 12 KTS ARE
EXPECTED...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT WEST AGAIN MONDAY MORNING AFTER
12Z.
..ERVIN..

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 751 AM CST SUN MAR 4 2012/

UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST FOR PERIOD OF SUNSHINE THIS MORNING AND
TO DELAY THE ONSET OF LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES IN THE WEST. BASED
ON SLOWER TIMING OF THE LATEST RUC AND NAM...THE DEVELOPING LIGHT
SNOW WITH THE CLIPPER SYSTEM NOW OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS WILL NOT
REACH CENTRAL IA UNTIL 18Z...AND MAY NOT DEVELOP INTO MEASURABLE
LIGHT SNOW IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES UNTIL 1 OR 2 PM. EXPECTED SNOW
AMOUNTS LOOK ON TRACK...BUT MODEL TRENDS ARE SUGGESTING A SLIGHT
SW SHIFT MAY TAKE PLACE. ..SHEETS..

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL

751 AM CST SUN MAR 4 2012

.UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST FOR PERIOD OF SUNSHINE THIS MORNING AND
TO DELAY THE ONSET OF LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES IN THE WEST. BASED
ON SLOWER TIMING OF THE LATEST RUC AND NAM...THE DEVELOPING LIGHT
SNOW WITH THE CLIPPER SYSTEM NOW OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS WILL NOT
REACH CENTRAL IA UNTIL 18Z...AND MAY NOT DEVELOP INTO MEASURABLE
LIGHT SNOW IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES UNTIL 1 OR 2 PM. EXPECTED SNOW
AMOUNTS LOOK ON TRACK...BUT MODEL TRENDS ARE SUGGESTING A SLIGHT
SW SHIFT MAY TAKE PLACE. ..SHEETS..

.AVIATION... /ISSUED 559 AM CST SUN MAR 4 2012/

A FAST MOVING WINTER STORM SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL
SPREAD LIGHT SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL AND SE IA INTO W CENTRAL IL THIS
AFTERNOON. AFTER A BREAK THIS MORNING...LOW CLOUDS WILL RETURN BY
EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES. CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR
AT CID...MLI AND DBQ BY EARLY AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY DEVELOPING
SNOW THAT WILL RESTRICT VISBYS TO 3 TO 5SM FOR SEVERAL HOURS. BRL
WILL HAVE THE GREATEST IMPACT...AND HAVE IFR CONDITIONS FOR A PERIOD
IN THE AFTERNOON DUE TO LOWERING CIGS AND VISBYS IN LIGHT SNOW.
DBQ WILL LIKELY BE ON THE FRINGE OF THIS SYSTEM AND FOR NOW HAVE
LIMITED THE IMPACT TO AFTERNOON VCSH WORDING FOR FLURRIES WITH VFR
CONDITIONS OTHERWISE...ONCE THE LOW CLOUDS IN THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING PUSH EAST. ALL SITES ARE EXPECTED TO SEE CLEARING
SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.
..SHEETS..

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

518 PM MST MON MAR 5 2012

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 515 PM MST MON MAR 5 2012

ALLOWED RED FLAG WARNING AND WIND ADVISORY TO EXPIRE ON TIME. HAVE
UPGRADED FIRE WEATHER WATCH TUESDAY TO A RED FLAG WARNING AND
STARTED IT AN HOUR EARLIER PER CURRENT GRID RH VALUES AT OR BELOW
20 PERCENT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE AT PRESENT
TIME.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 214 PM MST MON MAR 5 2012

EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RUC H5 ANALYSIS SHOW WESTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. AT THE
SURFACE A LEE TROUGH HAS SHIFTED EAST TO BE NEAR THE COLORADO/KANSAS
STATE LINE.

THE TIGHTEST SURFACE GRADIENT REMAINS ALONG THE SE BORDER OF THE
CWA...WHERE THE WIND ADVISORY IS STILL IN EFFECT. WINDS HAVE JUST
STARTED TO REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA AT A FEW LOCATIONS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE AS DAYTIME MIXING COMES TO
AN END. LOCATIONS CLOSER TO THE TROUGH AXIS MAY SEE WINDS DIMINISH
SOONER. FOR NOW THE WIND ADVISORY AND RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE
ALLOWED TO CONTINUE THROUGH 00Z...THOUGH WESTERN COUNTIES MAY BE
ALLOWED TO END EARLIER.

OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE TRICKY TONIGHT WITH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH POSSIBLE
EAST AND WEST OF SURFACE TROUGH...WITH EXACT LOCATION OF TROUGH AXIS
STILL IN QUESTION. IN ADDITION TO WINDS POSSIBLY ALLOWING FOR BETTER
OVERNIGHT MIXING...WAA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH H85
TEMPS 14-17C. CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR LOW TO MID 30S AND UPPER
30S IN THE EAST NEAR HILL CITY. THIS STILL MAY BE TOO COOL
CONSIDERING THE AIRMASS ALOFT.

NEAR RECORD HIGHS ARE STILL FORECAST FOR TUESDAY WITH SW FLOW AND A
VERY WARM AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWA. WITH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES TODAY REACHING THE MID 70S AT WESTERN LOCATIONS...THERE
SHOULD BE NO PROBLEMS REACHING THE UPPER 70S ON TUESDAY WHEN H85
TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE ABOUT 5C WARMER THAN TODAY. MANY LOCATIONS
WILL PROBABLY REACH 80F. RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
TUESDAY WITH GUSTY WINDS VERY LOW RH VALUES EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE CWA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 PM MST MON MAR 5 2012

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY A TROUGH OF DIGS INTO THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES AND FORMS A CLOSED LOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE
4-CORNERS REGION. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM AND THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA IS SEEMINGLY SPLIT INTO
TWO PARTS...WITH THE LEADING PORTION DEEPENING IN THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES AND MOVING SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THE TRAILING PORTION DEEPENING IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER LOW CENTER NEAR THE 4-CORNERS AREA. A COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEAD LOW PUSHES THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AND KEEPS HIGH TEMPERATURES 30
DEGREES COOLER OR MORE FROM TUESDAY/S HIGHS. VERY LITTLE IF ANY
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONT AS IT SWEEPS THROUGH THE
REGION AS THE AIRMASS STILL REMAINS RELATIVELY DRY ALOFT AND THE
MAIN DYNAMICS WITH THE UPPER LOW CENTER ARE STILL OFF TO THE WEST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BRING THE POSSIBILITY
OF A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION AS THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE
UPPER PATTERN SWEEPS A TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE
UPPER LOW NEAR THE 4-CORNERS REGION CUTS OFF AND DRIFTS SLOWLY
OVER NEW MEXICO. THE SURFACE AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE CONSOLIDATES
INTO A SINGLE LOW IN THE VICINITY OF FAR WESTERN TEXAS ON THURSDAY
AND BEGINS TO ELONGATE ALONG THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STRETCHING FROM WESTERN TEXAS INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
REGION. THE BEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALONG THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH DIMINISHING CHANCES THE FURTHER NORTH ONE
TRAVELS AWAY FROM THE BOUNDARY. HAVE PLACED A MIX OF MAINLY LIGHT
RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH GREATER PRECIPITATION
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS.

THE CUT OFF UPPER LOW LINGERS OVER NEW MEXICO FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT AND THEN BEGINS TO LIFT OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS ON SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. MODEL SOLUTIONS OFFER A
VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS OF NOW AND WHEN THE UPPER LOW EVENTUALLY
TRACKS EAST OF THE ROCKIES...SO CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE SOLUTION IS
MINIMAL AT THIS TIME. HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND RAIN
AND SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THIS TIME WITH A GENERAL RETURN OF TEMPERATURES TO
NEAR NORMAL.

WITH A SHORT WAVE RIDGE MOVING OVER THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE
UPPER LOW LIFTING THROUGH...HAVE KEPT THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK
DRY WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 515 PM MST MON MAR 5 2012

VFR CONDITIONS FOR BOTH KGLD AND KMCK. SOUTHWEST WINDS AT PRESENT
TIME WILL BECOME WESTERLY EARLY TONIGHT THEN SHIFT TO THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE INTO THE 15-20G30KT RANGE BY LATE
TUESDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. JUST A FEW CIRRUS EXPECTED...MAINLY TOWARD MORNING.

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 515 PM MST MON MAR 5 2012

RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE TRI-STATE AREA. RH
VALUES AS LOW AS 8 PERCENT AND SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 35 MPH WILL
PRODUCE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ252>254.

KS...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM MST /11 AM CST/ TO 7 PM MST /8 PM
CST/ TUESDAY FOR KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.

NE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM MST /11 AM CST/ TO 7 PM MST /8 PM
CST/ TUESDAY FOR NEZ079>081.

UPDATE...DDT
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM....LOCKHART
AVIATION...DDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

1043 PM MST SAT MAR 3 2012

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 746 PM MST SAT MAR 3 2012

JUST COMPLETED AN UPDATE. FAIRLY COMPLICATED LOW TEMPERATURE
FORECAST HAS DEVELOPED. WINDS HAVE DROPPED OFF DRAMATICALLY AND
LESS THAT WAS EARLIER DEPICTED. ALSO INCOMING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF MID/UPPER LEVEL JET IS PRODUCING A THICK
MID LEVEL CEILING. WHERE THERE ARE NO CLOUDS THE TEMPERATURES HAVE
DROPPED TO NEAR FORECAST MINS. WHERE THE CLOUDS ARE AT...TEMPERATURES
HAVE DROPPED LITTLE. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE BETWEEN 06Z
AND 09Z. HOWEVER BY THAT TIME THE WEST WINDS IN ADVANCE OF THE
NEXT SURFACE TROUGH START INCREASING.

BELIEVE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR A CONTINUED DROP WILL BE RIGHT
NOW AND IN THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS WHERE THE BEST
RADIATIONAL SETUP WILL OCCUR. DID LOWER TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES
ESPECIALLY IN THE ABOVE SPECIFIED AREAS BUT THAT IS PROBLEMATIC
DEPENDING ON HOW THE WIND/CLOUD SCENARIO EVOLVES. MOSGUIDE IS
CATCHING THE CLOUD COVER THE BEST AND MATCHES WELL WITH THE
EXPECTED LIFT AND USED THAT TO UPDATE THE CLOUD COVER THROUGH
TOMORROW MORNING.

FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT...USED THE LATEST RUC SINCE IT IS
DEPICTING THE CURRENT SITUATION VERY WELL RIGHT NOW. NEW NAM IS
ROLLING IN AT THIS TIME. THERE WAS SOME CONCERN EXPRESSED BY THE
DAY SHIFT ON NEEDING A WIND ADVISORY FOR TOMORROW. WAS EARLIER
LEANING TOWARD DOING THAT. HOWEVER...THE NEW NAM IS A LITTLE LESS
WINDY THAN THE PREVIOUS RUNS. PLUS MODELS OVERDID THE MIXING AND
WINDS YESTERDAY. PLUS CURRENT MODEL DATA IS NOT SHOWING A LOT OF
SUBSIDENCE DURING THE DAY TOMORROW WITH MOST OF THAT OCCURRING
VERY LATE TONIGHT. SO SOME DOUBT ABOUT THE NEEDED ADVISORY BUT
WILL BE CLOSE. SO ADJUSTED WINDS DOWN SLIGHTLY AND A LITTLE BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA. WILL LET NIGHT SHIFT LOOK AT OVERNIGHT DATA TO
ASSESS THE NEED FOR AN ADVISORY. ALSO ADJUSTED DEWPOINTS WITH
NOTHING CATCHING THAT WELL RIGHT NOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 439 PM MST SAT MAR 3 2012

FORECAST WAS UPDATED EARLIER DUE TO THE EARLY CANCELLATION OF THE
WIND ADVISORY AND RED FLAG WARNING.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 228 PM MST SAT MAR 3 2012

SKY COVER HAS INHIBITED HEATING AND MIXING TODAY. AM KEEPING THE
WIND ADVISORY INTACT THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AS IT IS STILL POSSIBLE
SOME OF THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MAY MIX TO THE SURFACE WITH VIRGA
BEING OBSERVED AND AREAS OVER THE FAR WESTERN CWA CURRENTLY AT OR
NEAR CRITERIA.

EXPECT SKY COVER TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS WE LOSE DAYTIME HEATING
AND THE CU FIELD. ALSO EXPECT HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING THROUGH THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO BEGIN MOVING OFF TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT AND
SUNDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES FROM THE FAR WESTERN UNITED STATES
INTO POSITION OVER THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. EXPECT THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS REGION TO REMAIN DRY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING AS WE COME
UNDER A GREATER INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP AROUND SUNSET...BUT WILL INCREASE AGAIN
AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE A CONCERN ON SUNDAY AS THE STRONGEST
PRESSURE GRADIENT MOVES EASTWARD OVER THE FORECAST AREA. WITH
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW...EXPECT MORE OF THE
STRONGER WINDS TO MIX DOWN THAN THEY MAY BE TODAY....ESPECIALLY OVER
THE EASTERN/NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE A WIND
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. WILL NOT ISSUE ONE AT THIS POINT SINCE IT
HAS NOT BEEN COORDINATED WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES AND DO NOT WANT
ANY PUBLIC CONFUSION WITH THE ONE STILL IN EFFECT DURING THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM MST SAT MAR 3 2012

DRY CONDITIONS AND WARM TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED MONDAY
AND TUESDAY WITH W/SW FLOW ALOFT AND A VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE
OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S ARE EXPECTED
BOTH DAYS...WITH TEMPS ON TUESDAY POSSIBLY REACHING THE MID/UPPER
70S IN THE SOUTH AND EAST. MAIN CONCERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE
POTENTIAL FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS BOTH DAYS. RH VALUES CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO DROP BELOW 15 PERCENT BOTH DAYS...MAINLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA. GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
BOTH DAYS...HOWEVER THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
EAST WHERE TIGHTER SURFACE GRADIENT WILL COMBINE WITH
UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW ALOFT. THESE WINDS MAY NOT OVERLAP WITH LOW RH
FOR A LONG ENOUGH PERIOD OF TIME FOR RED FLAG TO BE MET.

A COLD FRONT WILL PASS OVER THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT...COOLING TEMPS
TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS (UPPER 40S/LOW 50S) WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE PLAINS
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH COULD BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR
RAIN WED AND RAIN/SNOW WED NIGHT. ECMWF ALONG WITH SUPPORT OF
ENSEMBLES CONTINUES TO SHOW A SPLIT IN THE UPPER PATTERN THAT
WOULD RESULT IN OUR CWA BEING MISSED. GFS HAS BEEN BACK AND FORTH
ON SHOWING A SIMILAR SPLIT OR AN OPEN WAVE...SO WAS NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO BUY INTO ITS WETTER SOLUTION. I KEPT PRECIP OUT OF
FORECAST FOR NOW. SHORTWAVE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK OVER
THE INTER- MOUNTAIN WEST TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH
SHOULD BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S/NEAR 60 FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY.

OVERALL NOT A LOT OF HOPE FOR MEANINGFUL PRECIP ON THE HORIZON
WITH EITHER RIDGING OR WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1039 PM MST SAT MAR 3 2012

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE MAIN STORY THROUGH
THIS FORECAST WILL BE THE WINDS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH A
SURFACE TROUGH THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL INCREASE THE WINDS AND
MAKE THE GUSTY AGAIN NEAR 08=09Z. THEN ONCE THE SUN COMES AND SOME
MIXING OCCURS...SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE AROUND 7 TO 10
KNOTS. THIS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY WHEN SURFACE RIDGE
MOVING IN WILL CAUSE THE WINDS TO GO LIGHT.

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM....DR
AVIATION...BULLER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS GRAY ME

504 PM EST SUN MAR 4 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND
WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST
ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND
WILL HOLD OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY AND WILL PUSH
SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT...SHIFTING OFFSHORE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH FROM CANADA ON
SATURDAY MOVING OFFSHORE BY LATE IN THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...SFC TROF CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SAG SWD TOWARDS THE COAST.
18Z/04 NAM DOES PICK UP ON THE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE LLVLS
ROUGHLY PARALLELING THE MTNS...BEFORE SAGGING SEWD AND ARCING
TOWARDS THE NRN SEACOAST AREAS. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTIVE OF THE
PREVIOUS SHIFT/S THINKING THAT SHORT TERM HI-RES MODELS ARE
PICKING UP ON PSBL BANDED SNFL NEAR THE COAST LATER TNGT. BASED ON
UPSTREAM REPORTS IN VT...AND CONVECTIVE NATURE OF SNFL IN THE
MTNS. HAVE UPPED BOTH QPF AND SNFL AMNTS IN THE NEAR TERM. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS TO SEE IF SIMILAR CHANGES NEED TO BE
MADE FOR NEAR THE COAST LATER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...INTERESTING SLOW MOVING BAND OF SHSN
MOVING ACROSS NRN NEW ENG IN ASSOC WITH COLD FRONT SETTLING
SOUTHWARD. VSBL SATELLITE IMAGES CONTINUES TO SHOW THE CONVECTIVE
LOOKING CLOUDS SHIFTING SLOWLY TO THE EAST. THIS EASTWARD
PROGRESSION HAS BEEN SLOWED THIS AFTERNOON BY THE PRESENCE OF
SUBSIDENCE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE OFFSHORE COASTAL SYSTEM.

SR MODELS BRING THIS BOUNDARY TO SRN MAINE BY EVENING.
THE LATEST HRRR RUNS HAVE FINALLY BEGUN TO PICK UP THE BRIEF
PERIOD OF BANDED PCPN NOW FORECAST FOR THE LAST SVRL RUNS BY THE
NAM (AND TO SOME EXTENT THE GFS) TO SETTLE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL PTNS
OF OUR FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING.

WITH A SFC LOW INTENSIFYING OFF THE CST...AND A STALLED OUT
BOUNDARY INTERACTING WITH POSITIVE VERTICAL MOTION IN THE LWR
LVLS...THIS PTTN IS BEGINNING TO RESEMBLE SOME CHARACTERISTICS OF
A NORLUN TYPE II TROUGH ("LDRI" FROM PREV NE STORM CONFERENCES). WILL
ENHANCE THE POPS FOR THIS EVENING OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL AND COASTAL AREAS
N OF PWM WHERE BEST LAPSE RATES AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL EXIST.
POPS WILL TAPER OFF AS YOU HEAD INTO WRN AND SRN NH.

QPF...WILL INCLUDE A SNOW MAP FOR THIS AFTNS AND TNGTS TOTALS.
WILL BE UPDATING THIS GRAPHIC PERIODICALLY THRU THE EVE HRS.

OTRW...PLENTY OF CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER
TROF. MOST OF THE PCPN TO EXIT OFF THE COAST OR DIMINISH TOWARDS MRNG.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
BY MONDAY...ANY LEFTOVER FLURRIES WILL BE CONFINED TO THE UPSLOPE
AREAS OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE NRN/WRN MTNS. USED A BLEND OF
MET/MAV MOS FOR AFTN HIGH TEMPS. TEMPS TOMORROW WILL BE RUNNING
COOLER THAN WHAT WE HAVE BEEN USED TO AS THE CORE OF THE RIDGE
KEEPS H8 TEMPS BTWN -14 AND -18 DEG C.

CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS ONCE AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT WELL OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COASTLINE. TOO FAR OFFSHORE TO INFLUENCE OUR WX IN ME AND NH.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY BRINGING MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES TO MUCH OF THE AREA. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME HIGH
CLOUDINESS SPILLING INTO WESTERN ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE WITH MID 20S TO LOWER 30S
IN THE NORTH AND LOWER TO MID 30S IN THE SOUTH.

RETURN FLOW WILL BRING WARMER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT.
EXPECT VARIABLE CLOUDINESS AS AREA OF WEAK OVER-RUNNING SHIFTS INTO
THE AREA FROM THE WEST. COULD SEE A STRAY SNOW SHOWER IN THE NORTH
BUT NOT GOING WITH ANY POPS AT THIS POINT. LOOKING FOR MILDER
OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MID TEENS IN THE NORTH
AND MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S IN THE SOUTH.

MOSTLY SUNNY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE EAST COAST. ONLY LOOKING FOR A FEW PATCHY
HIGH CLOUDS WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S IN THE NORTH
AND MID 40S TO LOWER 50S IN THE SOUTH.

WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH FROM CANADA ON THURSDAY. SEEING SOME
RUN TO RUN TIMING DIFFERENCES ON HOW QUICKLY THIS BOUNDARY DROPS
SOUTH BUT IT SHOULD BE ANOTHER DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY DAY IN AT LEAST
SOUTHERN ZONES. EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE NORTH WITH A CHANCE OF A LATE DAY SPRINKLE. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL AGAIN BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH MID 40S TO LOWER 50S IN THE
NORTH AND RANGING THROUGH THE 50S TO NEAR 60 IN THE SOUTH.

COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY EVENING
..SHIFTING OFFSHORE BEFORE MIDNIGHT. WILL STICK WITH CHANCE POPS FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA WITH RAIN SHOWERS MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO SNOW
SHOWERS BEFORE ENDING. SHOULD SEE CLEARING SKIES AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY BEFORE MOVING
OFFSHORE. WARM FRONT CROSSING SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BRING HIGH CLOUDS
INTO THE REGION DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON BUT
LOOKING FOR A DRY DAY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH FROM CANADA ON SATURDAY AND WILL
QUICKLY MOVE OFFSHORE IN THE AFTERNOON. LITTLE IF ANY MOISTURE OR
FORCING WITH THIS BOUNDAY SO AT THIS POINT SEE LITTLE MORE THAN A
FEW PASSING CLOUDS WITH THIS SYSTEM.

ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD SOUTH FROM CANADA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY KEEPING WEATHER MILD AND QUIET IN THE
NORTHEAST.

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MVFR AND LCLY IFR CONDS DVLPG THIS EVE...MAINLY OVER
S-CNTRL ME AND ALG THE MIDCOAST RGN. CONDS SLOWLY IMPROVG LATE
TNGT AND THROUGH MONDAY.

LONG TERM...VFR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SOME AREAS OF MVFR
CEILINGS THURSDAY EVENING. VFR FRIDAY.

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED FOR THE OUTER WATERS. THERE
WILL BE A LULL IN THE WIND FIELD TNGT...HWVR...SEAS WILL RMN AOA 5
FT. NW GRADIENT TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN ON MONDAY WITH FRQNT GUSTS
TO 25 KT CONTINUING RGT THRU MON NGT. HENCE SCAS HAVE BEEN
EXTENDED OUTWARDS IN TIME.

LONG TERM...SCA`S MAYBE NEEDED WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

LEGRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAY ME

258 PM EST SUN MAR 4 2012

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
INTERESTING SLOW MOVING BAND OF SHSN MOVING ACROSS NRN NEW ENG IN
ASSOC WITH COLD FRONT SETTLING SOUTHWARD. VSBL SATELLITE IMAGES
CONTINUES TO SHOW THE CONVECTIVE LOOKING CLOUDS SHIFTING SLOWLY TO
THE EAST. THIS EASTWARD PROGRESSION HAS BEEN SLOWED THIS AFTERNOON
BY THE PRESENCE OF SUBSIDENCE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE OFFSHORE
COASTAL SYSTEM.

QPF...WILL INCLUDE A SNOW MAP FOR THIS AFTNS AND TNGTS TOTALS.
WILL BE UPDATING THIS GRAPHIC PERIODICALLY THRU THE EVE HRS.

OTRW...PLENTY OF CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER
TROF. MOST OF THE PCPN TO EXIT OFF THE COAST OR DIMINISH TOWARDS MRNG.

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
BY MONDAY...ANY LEFTOVER FLURRIES WILL BE CONFINED TO THE UPSLOPE
AREAS OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE NRN/WRN MTNS. USED A BLEND OF
MET/MAV MOS FOR AFTN HIGH TEMPS. TEMPS TOMORROW WILL BE RUNNING
COOLER THAN WHAT WE HAVE BEEN USED TO AS THE CORE OF THE RIDGE
KEEPS H8 TEMPS BTWN -14 AND -18 DEG C.

CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS ONCE AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT WELL OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COASTLINE. TOO FAR OFFSHORE TO INFLUENCE OUR WX IN ME AND NH.

ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD SOUTH FROM CANADA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY KEEPING WEATHER MILD AND QUIET IN THE
NORTHEAST.

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MVFR AND LCLY IFR CONDS DVLPG THIS EVE...MAINLY OVER
S-CNTRL ME AND ALG THE MIDCOAST RGN. CONDS SLOWLY IMPROVG LATE
TNGT AND THROUGH MONDAY.

LONG TERM...VFR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SOME AREAS OF MVFR
CEILINGS THURSDAY EVENING. VFR FRIDAY.

LONG TERM...SCA`S MAYBE NEEDED WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

$$
SHORT TERM...CANNON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAY ME

216 PM EST SUN MAR 4 2012

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
INTERESTING SLOW MOVING BAND OF SHSN MOVING ACROSS NRN NEW ENG IN
ASSOC WITH COLD FRONT SETTLING SOUTHWARD. VSBL SATELLITE IMAGES
CONTINUE TO SHOW THE CONVECTIVE LOOKING CLOUDS SHIFTING SLOWLY TO
THE EAST. THIS EASTWARD PROGRESSION HAS BEEN SLOWED THIS AFTERNOON
BY THE PRESENCE OF SUBSIDENCE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE OFFSHORE
COASTAL SYSTEM.

SR MODELS BRING THIS BOUNDARY TO SRN MAINE BY EVENING.
UNFORTUNATELY...THE LATEST HRRR RUNS HAVE NOT PICKED UP ON THE
PCPN (ALBIET LGT) NOW FORECAST FOR THE LAST SVRL RUNS BY THE NAM
(AND TO SOME EXTENT THE GFS) TO SETTLE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL PTNS OF
OUR FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING.

QPF...WILL INCLUDE A SNOW MAP FOR THIS AFTNS AND TNGTS TOTALS.
WILL BE UPDATING THIS GRAPHIC PERIODICALLY THRU THE EVE HRS. FOR
NOW...IT APPEARS ACCUMS WL BE LGT...GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS OVR
THE NRN 2/3 OF THE FA...WITH A MAX OF 1-2" N AND E OF PWM.

OTRW...PLENTY OF CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER
TROF. MOST OF THE PCPN TO EXIT OFF THE COAST OR DIMINISH TOWARDS MRNG.

CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS ONCE AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT WELL OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COASTLINE. TOO FAR OFFSHORE TO INFLUENCE OUR WX IN ME AND NH.

ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD SOUTH FROM CANADA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY KEEPING WEATHER MILD AND QUIET IN THE
NORTHEAST.

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MVFR AND LCLY IFR CONDS DVLPG THIS EVE...MAINLY OVER
S-CNTRL ME AND ALG THE MIDCOAST RGN. CONDS SLOWLY IMPROVG LATE
TNGT AND THROUGH MONDAY.

LONG TERM...VFR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SOME AREAS OF MVFR
CEILINGS THURSDAY EVENING. VFR FRIDAY.

LONG TERM...SCA`S MAYBE NEEDED WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

$$
JC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAY ME

1156 AM EST SUN MAR 4 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY ACCOMPANIED
BY A FEW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AN
UPPER TROUGH WILL PRODUCE MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS TONIGHT AND MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE SOUTH
OF THE AREA TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS THIS FRONT
FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...

INTERESTING SLOW MOVING BAND OF SHSN MOVING ACROSS NRN NEW ENG IN
ASSOC WITH COLD FRONT SETTLING SOUTHWARD. VSBL SATELLITE IMAGES
CONTINUES TO SHOW THE CONVECTIVE LOOKING CLOUDS SHIFTING SLOWLY TO
THE EAST.

SR MODELS BRING THIS BOUNDARY TO SRN MAINE BY EVENING.
UNFORTUNATELY...THE LATEST HRRR RUNS HAVE NOT PICKED UP ON THE
PCPN NOW FORECAST FOR THE LAST SVRL RUNS BY THE NAM TO SETTLE OVER
OUR FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.

WITH A SFC LOW INTENSIFYING OFF THE CST...AND A STALLED OUT
BOUNDARY WITH GOOD VERTICAL MOTION IN THE LWR LVLS...THIS PTTN IS
BEGINNING TO RESEMBLE SOME CHARACTERISTICS OF A NORLUN TYPE II
TROUGH (LDRI). WILL ENHANCE THE POPS FOR THIS AFTN AND TNGT OVER
THE NRN 2/3 OF THE FCST AREA...ALBIET...THE CHC FOR PCPN AWAY FROM
THE COAST (NH) WILL NOT BE AS HIGH AS OTHER AREAS NEAR THE
SHORELINE FROM ABOUT PWM NORTH.

QPF...WILL INCLUDE A SNOW MAP FOR THIS AFTNS AND TNGTS TOTALS.
WILL BE UPDATING THIS GRAPHIC THROUGHOUT THE AFTN.

REST OF THE GRIDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY UNCHANGED AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISC...
A 985 MILLIBAR LOW WAS VICINITY OF GASPE PENINSULA WITH TRAILING
COLD FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND EASTERN
LAKES AS OF 07Z. THE FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY WITH A FEW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. WE`LL SEE SEASONABLE HIGHS OF NEAR 30 FOR THE
MOUNTAINS AND AROUND 40 FOR THE COASTAL PLAIN.

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TURNING COLDER TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT EXITS THE
COAST AND OFFSHORE STORM DRAWS COLDER AIR SOUTHWARD INTO THE
AREA. IT WILL BE UNSETTLED AS WELL AS AN UPPER TROUGH CROSSES THE
REGION WITH CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
BE SINGLE NUMBERS AND TEENS...WITH BELOW NORMAL HIGHS ON MONDAY
RANGING FROM 20 TO 30 ACROSS THE AREA.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
CLEARING AND CHILLY OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES. THE RIDGE MOVES OFF
THE COAST TUESDAY ALLOWING A SOUTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WARM ADVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
HIGH WILL PRODUCE HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY IN THE
MTNS TUESDAY NIGHT. WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE SUNNY AND MILD. MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

AFTER WEDNESDAY THOUGH...MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN IN GOOD AGREEMENT
LEADING TO CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY. AT THIS TIME...BOTH THE 00Z GFS
AND 00Z ECMWF ARE BRINGING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
IN COMPARISON...YESTERDAY`S 12Z ECMWF WAS ABOUT 48 HOURS SLOWER.
HOWEVER...THE LATEST ECMWF DEVELOPS A LOW ALONG THE COAST FRIDAY
AND TAKES IT THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE DURING THE DAY. THIS IS A
NEW WRINKLE IN WHAT HAVE BEEN RATHER DIVERGENT MODEL RUNS. IN
COMPARISON...THE GFS BRINGS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
SOUTHWARD AND JUST PUSHES THE FRONT AND MOISTURE SOUTHEAST OF THE
AREA DURING THE DAY. CONSIDERING THE UNCERTAINTY...EXPECT A
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOLLOWED BY
THE CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS FOR SATURDAY. SOUTHWARD
PROGRESSION OF RAIN/SNOW LINE (IF ANY) ON SATURDAY WILL DEPEND ON
STRENGTH OF SURFACE LOW (IF ANY) IN THE GULF OF MAINE. WEATHER
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE SUNDAY.

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 23Z MON/...VFR EXPECTED.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MVFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY IN CLOUDS AND SHOWERS.

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...SCA CONTINUES TODAY OUTSIDE THE BAYS MAINLY
FOR SEAS...ALTHOUGH WE WILL SEE SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF SCA GUSTS AT
THE ELEVATED PLATFORMS. WE WILL DROP BELOW SCA THRESHOLD TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY.

LONG TERM...SCA MAY BE REQUIRED FOR WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS OCEAN LOW PASSES WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
THE WATERS AND LATER IN THE WEEK AS SW WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE.

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ150-
152-154.

$$
JC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PITTSBURGH PA

337 PM EST SUN MAR 4 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA AND BRING
SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
INTO THE REGION BY LATE MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE MID-WEEK.
THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL RETURN BY LATE WEEK AS THE NEXT FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
THE LATEST RUC MID-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A 500MB TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. AT 850MB, FLOW HAS BECOME
NORTHWESTERLY WITH TEMPS COOLING TO AROUND -10C ACROSS LAKE ERIE.
WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS ABOVE 8KFT, THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR SNOW
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP WITH A FEW HEAVIER SNOW SQUALLS.

TONIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY 850MB FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR SNOW SHOWERS TO
CONTINUE. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE REINFORCED THIS AFTERNOON AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA. THIS IS MOST
INDICATIVE BY A WIND SHIFT FROM WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY TO
NORTHWESTERLY. SOME LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE WIND-SHIFT
WILL ALLOW FOR HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD
WITH THE FRONT INTO THE EVENING.

WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS, A QUICK HALF INCH TO AN INCH WILL
BE POSSIBLE. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SOME LOCATIONS THAT GET
MULTIPLE SNOW SQUALLS AND THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY GET UP TO 2
INCHES. ELSEWHERE, EXPECT GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH. SNOW
SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY TONIGHT, WITH LESS
THAN AN ADDITIONAL INCH POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE
FAIRLY CLOSE TO LAMP GUIDANCE, AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THERE IS GFS/ECMWF AGREEMENT THAT A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH
OF THE AREA AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSES FROM KENTUCKY INTO
SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA. HAVE BEGUN THE PERIOD WITH CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND LIKELY IN THE RIDGES AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SNOW SHOWERS INTIALLY. SNOW SHOWERS WILL
DIMINISH BY 18Z ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING
BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST. HIGH TEMPS ARE CLOSER TO THE
WARMER MAV GUIDANCE, AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND BE CENTERED OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ABUNDANT SUNSHINE
THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING EACH DAY AS THE
FLOW SHIFTS TO MORE SOUTHERLY. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN A MAV/MET BLEND, AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO WARM TO AROUND 15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION SHOULD
REACH ALMOST ALL LOCATIONS BY THURSDAY EVENING...AND HAVE BUMPED UP
POPS EVERYWHERE TO HIGH CHANCE. MULTIPLE RUNS OF GFS CONTINUE TO
FLIP-FLOP WITH ORIENTATION OF FRONT AND THEREFORE LOCATION OF
PRECIPITATION...BUT ECMWF HAS REMAINED CONSISTENT OVER SEVERAL RUNS
ALONG WITH GFS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLES IN SHOWING THE FRONT SLOWLY
MOVING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
HAVE STUCK WITH THE ECMWF SOLUTION AT THIS POINT. THIS SHOWS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT...AND ALLOWING
FOR DRY WEATHER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. BULK OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD
FALL AS RAIN...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME FLAKES MIXING IN AS PRECIP
ENDS FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF
THURSDAY/S COLD FRONT...WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE
WEEKEND.

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY AT ALL SITES...WITH
VISIBILITIES ONLY EXPECTED TO DROP TO 5-6 MILES FOR MOST OF THE DAY.
ONE DOMINANT SNOW BAND HAS BEEN SLOWLY MOVING FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH...HAVING ALREADY PASSED FKL AND DUJ. CONSIDERING THE BAND IS
ONLY MOVING AROUND 10-20 MILES AN HOUR...HAVE NOT INCLUDED TEMPOS
4-8 HOURS OUT FOR THIS BAND. HAVE INCLUDED SOME TEMPO GROUPS FROM
18-21Z FOR A MORE MODERATE BAND MOVING ACROSS THE WV PANHANDLE INTO
SOUTHWEST PA. DOMINANT BAND COULD POSSIBLY AFFECT PITTSBURGH AND
TERMINALS TO THE SOUTH DURING THE EVENING HOURS IF IT HOLDS
TOGETHER. TERMINALS SHOULD EVENTUALLY GO VFR DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES TO
DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS. NEXT
FRONT APPROACHES LATE THURSDAY WITH MVFR AND SCATTERED IFR IN
SHOWERS...WITH PRECIPITATION PERSISTING INTO FRIDAY.

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PITTSBURGH PA

120 PM EST SUN MAR 4 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW SHOWERS AND COLD WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA BY LATE MONDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MID-WEEK WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN BY LATE WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
18Z ENHANCED SHORT TERM FORECAST UPDATE HAS BEEN ISSUED
TO INCREASE POPS TO CATEGORICAL AS HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS DROP SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

THE LATEST RUC MID-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A 500MB TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM MICHIGAN SOUTHWARD INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WITH
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY IN A WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE. AT 850MB, FLOW HAS BECOME MORE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WITH
TEMPS COOLING TO AROUND -10C. WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS ABOVE 8KFT
AND MID-LEVEL VORT ENERGY SLIDING INTO THE I-80 CORRIDOR, THIS HAS
ALLOWED FOR SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP WITH A FEW HEAVIER SNOW
SQUALLS.

THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...THE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AT 850MB
WILL SHIFT TO MORE NORTHWESTERLY AND ALLOW FOR SNOW SHOWERS. COLD
AIR ADVECTION WILL BE REINFORCED THIS AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER COLD
FRONT SLIDES SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA. THIS IS MOST INDICATIVE BY A
WIND SHIFT FROM WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY. SOME LOW-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE WIND-SHIFT WILL ALLOW FOR HEAVIER SNOW
SQUALLS TO CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD WITH THE FRONT INTO THE
EVENING.

IN THIS SETUP, HAVE ALREADY OBSERVED A FEW HIGH IMPACT SUB-
ADVISORY (HISA) SNOW SQUALLS ACROSS THE I-80 CORRIDOR AND EXPECT
THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND
SQUALLS, A QUICK HALF INCH TO AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE. NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION THAT SOME LOCATIONS THAT GET MULTIPLE SNOW SQUALLS
MAY AND THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL GET UP TO 2 INCHES. ELSEWHERE,
EXPECT GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH. SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY TONIGHT, WITH LESS THAN AN ADDITIONAL INCH
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE FAIRLY CLOSE TO LAMP
GUIDANCE, ARUOND 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ALL OF THE WX TAKES PLACE RIGHT OUT OF THE GATE MON AS A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTERACTS WITH SUFFICIENT LLVL MOISTURE IN THE
RIDGES. INCREASED POPS TO LKLY FOR GARRETT AND TUCKER COUNTIES
WITH CHC NUMBERS FOR ADJACENT LOCATIONS. ANY DAYTIME SNOW ACCUM
WILL BE AN INCH OR LESS. WINTER PCPN QUICKLY ENDS MON EVENING AS
MID LEVEL ENERGY MOVES EAST. DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED THE
BALANCE OF THE SHORT TERM AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS OUR WEATHER.
TEMPERATURES WILL GET WARMER EACH SUCCESSIVE DAY / NIGHT.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
0Z RUNS ARE STRONGER WITH MID WEEK SE CONUS ANTICYCLONE THEREBY
DELAY FROPA 12-24HRS FROM PREVIOUS RUNS. AS A RESULT...CONTINUED
DRY WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MRNG.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AFFECTED AS WELL. OVERNIGHT LOWS WED NGT WILL
BE QUITE WARM UNDER A WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WITH MOST LOCATIONS
STAYING WELL INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S. THURSDAY WILL BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS LWR 60S SHOULD BE OBSERVED FROM ZZV - IDI
AND POINTS S.

DO NOT EXPECT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WITH COLD FRONT THURSDAY DESPITE
CURRENT AFTERNOON TIMING. STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE BACK
END OF THE FORECAST. ECMWF CONTS TO BRING A FULL LATITUDE TROF OVER
THE ERN U.S. RESULTING IN SCT SHSN FRI INTO SAT...WHILE GFS IS MORE
PROGRESSIVE AS PCPN SHUTS OFF FRI AND SEASONAL DRY WX SAT. DID
NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO GRIDDED DATA SET DAY 6 AND 7 DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE.

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY AT ALL SITES...WITH
VISIBILITIES ONLY EXPECTED TO DROP TO 5-6 MILES FOR MOST OF THE DAY.
ONE DOMINANT SNOW BAND HAS BEEN SLOWLY MOVING FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH...HAVING ALREADY PASSED FKL AND DUJ. CONSIDERING THE BAND IS
ONLY MOVING AROUND 10-20 MILES AN HOUR...HAVE NOT INCLUDED TEMPOS
4-8 HOURS OUT FOR THIS BAND. HAVE INCLUDED SOME TEMPO GROUPS FROM
18-21Z FOR A MORE MODERATE BAND MOVING ACROSS THE WV PANHANDLE INTO
SOUTHWEST PA. DOMINANT BAND COULD POSSIBLY AFFECT PITTSBURGH AND
TERMINALS TO THE SOUTH DURING THE EVENING HOURS IF IT HOLDS
TOGETHER. TERMINALS SHOULD EVENTUALLY GO VFR DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PITTSBURGH PA

1104 AM EST SUN MAR 4 2012

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A LATE MORNING ENHANCED SHORT TERM FORECAST UPDATE HAS BEEN ISSUED
TO UPDATE THE LATEST TRENDS IN SKY AND POPS.

THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...THE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AT 850MB
WILL SHIFT TO MORE NORTHWESTERLY AND ALLOW FOR SNOW SHOWERS. COLD
AIR ADVECTION WILL BE REINFORCED THIS AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER COLD
FRONT SLIDES SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA. THIS IS MOST INDICATIVE BY A
WIND SHIFT FROM WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY. SOME LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE WIND-SHIFT WILL ALLOW FOR HEAVIER
SNOW SQUALLS TO DEVELOP AND SLIDE SOUTHWARD WITH THE FRONT INTO
THE EVENING.

IN THIS SETUP, HAVE ALREADY OBSERVED A FEW HIGH IMPACT SUB-
ADVISORY (HISA) SNOW SQUALLS ACROSS THE I-80 CORRIDOR AND EXPECT
THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND
SQUALLS, A QUICK HALF INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE. NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION THAT SOME LOCATIONS THAT GET MULTIPLE SNOW SQUALLS MAY
AND THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL GET UP TO 2 INCHES. ELSEWHERE,
EXPECT GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH. SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY TONIGHT, WITH LESS THAN AN ADDITIONAL INCH
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE FAIRLY CLOSE TO LAMP
GUIDANCE, ARUOND 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
0Z RUNS ARE STRONGER WITH MID WEEK SE CONUS ANTICYCLONE THEREBY
DELAY FROPA 12-24HRS FROM PREVIOUS RUNS. AS A RESULT...CONTINUED
DRY WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MRNG.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AFFECTED AS WELL. OVERNIGHT LOWS WED NGT WILL
BE QUITE WARM UNDER A WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WITH MOST LOCATIONS
STAYING WELL INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S. THURSDAY WILL BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS LWR 60S SHOULD BE OBSERVED FROM ZZV - IDI
AND POINTS S.

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY AT ALL SITES...WITH
VISIBILITIES ONLY EXPECTED TO DROP TO 5-6 MILES FOR MOST OF THE DAY.
HEAVIER SNOW BANDS COULD DROP VISIBILITIES TO 1-2 MILES...WITH A
SINGLE BAND LIKELY TO MOVE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE DAY. SOME
15-20 GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY...BUT WINDS WILL NOT BE
NEARLY AS STRONG AS YESTERDAY. SNOW SHOULD DIMINISH BY THE END OF
THE EVENING.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE AREA ON MONDAY AND CONTINUES TO DOMINATE
THE WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS. NEXT FRONT
APPROACHES ON THURSDAY WITH MVFR AND SCATTERED IFR IN SHOWERS.

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WAKEFIELD VA

1008 AM EST SUN MAR 4 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH AWAY FROM MID-ATLANTIC COAST THIS
MORNING..WITH HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDING IN THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. A QUICK MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT...TRACKING ACROSS THE VIRGINIA...NORTH
CAROLINA BORDER MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST GOES VISIBLE AND LONGWAVE IR CHANNELS ARE SHOWING CLEARING
MOVING INTO THE PIEDMONT COUNTIES WITH DENSE CLOUD COVER REMAINING
OVER THE COAST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW BACKING SSW
FLOW ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST AS A TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH. HOWEVER...A SUBTLE EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE WARM MOIST CONVEYOR
ALONG THE COAST IS OCCURRING AS A SECONDARY TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER RIDGING EXPANDS OVER THE WEST. LATEST
OBS AND RADAR IMAGERY CONTINUE TO SHOW RAIN OVER NE NC AND THE
TIDEWATER...ALTHOUGH DRIER AIR IS ATTEMPTING ERODE THE WESTERN
EDGE. AT THIS POINT RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THESE AREAS
UNTIL AROUND NOON BEFORE THE WESTERN EDGE SIMULTANEOUSLY ERODES
AND MOVES OFF THE COAST. RAWS/ASOS/AWOS OBS INDICATE AROUND 0.5-1
IN OF RAIN SINCE MIDNIGHT ALONG AND SE OF A LINE FROM ASJ TO
ORF...WITH MUCH LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE NW AND ZERO OR TRACE AMOUNTS
FROM AVC-PTB-SBY NW. OF NOTE...RADAR ESTIMATES APPEAR TOO HIGH
BASED ON BRIGHT BANDING.

ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS EXPECTED PER BOTH THE HRRR AND NAM12 EAST
OF I-95 AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON, AND HAVE ALLOWED FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF SHOWERS DURING
THE 18-22Z PERIOD. OTHERWISE A WEST TO EAST IMPROVING TREND IS
EXPECTED FOR THE AFTN. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING STRONG COOLING
ALOFT AS TROUGH APPROACHES AND SFC TROUGH SLIDES NE AWAY FROM THE
REGION. HAVE NOT ACCOUNTED FOR THIS IN THE FORECAST DUE TO LOW
PROBABILITY, BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW WET
SNOWFLAKES MIX IN WITH RAIN SHRAS AS PCPN ENDS THIS AFTERNOON.
DRIER AIRMASS PULLING IN FROM THE WEST SHOULD MAKE ANY PCPN RATHER
SPOTTY, AND WARM BL WILL OBVIOUSLY PRECLUDE ANY SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION ISSUES TODAY. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND
MIXED-PHASE PRECIP FOR A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER. THIS CONVECTIVE
SHOWER POTENTIAL WILL BE RE-ADDRESSED AT THE NEXT UPDATE WITHIN
2-3 HOURS.

FOR HIGHS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE CHALLENGING TODAY ESPECIALLY THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY RUNNING 2-3 DEGREES WARMER
THAN LAMP/HRRR NUMBERS AND HV ACCORDINGLY STAYED ON THE WARM SIDE
FOR THE MORNING. DOWNSLOPE FLOW INLAND AS SYSTEM EXITS SHOULD
MAKE FOR DRYING/CLEARING CONDITIONS AND AT LEAST A PARTLY SUNNY
SKY INLAND. HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO MET/MAV BLEND OVER THIS AREA,
WITH LOW 50S FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST GENERALLY ACCEPTED WEST OF
I-95. CLOSER TO THE COAST, WITH LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO LAST A BIT LONGER, HAVE GONE CLOSE TO THE MAV
NUMBERS...AS NAM CONTINUES TO SEEMINGLY OVER-EMPHASIZE DYNAMICAL
COOLING ALONG THE COAST. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 AT THE
COAST.

MODELS NOW IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS TROUGH (CLIPPER
SYSTEM) AS IT CROSSES THE MID ATLANTIC MONDAY...WITH THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW TRACKING ACROSS/JUST SOUTH OF THE VA/NC
BORDER. THE THERMAL PROFILE ALOFT CRASHES WITH THIS
SYSTEM...1000-500MB THICKNESS VALUES AROUND 5250M AND LOW-LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES RANGE FROM AROUND 1290M N...TO 1310M S. THIS
WOULD SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW AS PCPN
ARRIVES AFTER 09Z/MONDAY. AT THIS POINT THE PRECIP TYPE GENERALLY
REFLECTS SREF PROBABILITIES...WHICH HAVE TRENDED UPWARDS NICELY
WITH THE 21Z/03 SUITE, ALTHOUGH AGREE WITH HPC THAT THIS IS LIKELY
ATTRIBUTABLE AT LEAST IN PART TO THE (LIKELY ERRONEOUSLY) COLDER
NAM MEMBERS. STILL...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH TO INCREASE TO HIGH
CHC TO LIKELY POP WEST OF RIC METRO MONDAY MORNING...WITH HIGH CHC
POP FOR MAINLY LIQUID PCPN LATER MONDAY MORNING. QPF WITH THIS
EVENT WILL BE RATHER LOW, ON THE ORDER OF TWO TENTHS OR LESS AS
PER SREF ENSEMBLES. TIMING OF THIS EVENT, WITH LIGHT SNOW
BEGINNING JUST PRIOR TO DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD AT LEAST PARTIALLY
NEGATE MARGINAL BL TEMPERATURES INITIALLY, LEAVING THE POTENTIAL
FOR A LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION (~1") ON GRASSY/ELEVATED SFCS
MONDAY MORNING BEFORE QUICKLY MIXING AND TURNING OVER TO RAIN
LATER MONDAY MORNING.

GIVEN EARLY MARCH SUN ANGLE AND MARGINAL BL CONDITIONS, HEAVIER
SNOW RATES WOULD BE NEEDED FOR ANY ACCUMULATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF
THE I-95 CORRIDOR, AND FORECAST CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH AT ALL FOR
THAT OCCURRING. CLEARING COMES QUICKLY BEHIND THE SYSTEM...BY
LATE MORN INLAND INTO THE LATE AFTN COASTAL ZONES. FOR TEMPERATURES,
LOOK FOR HIGHS MONDAY MID/UPPER 40S.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT AND BECOMES
CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC TUESDAY BRINGING COOL PLEASANT
CONDITIONS. LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY MORNING SHOULD RANGE FROM THE
MID 20S TO LOW 30S...FOLLOWED BY HIGHS IN THE MID 40S EASTERN
SHORE...TO LOW 50S PIEDMONT.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY
DRIFTING SLOWLY EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL REBOUND INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S WITH LOWS MODERATING IN THE
LOW TO MID 40S WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH DEEPENING SOUTHERLY FLOW.
SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES THURSDAY AS THE REGION BECOMES SQUEEZED
BETWEEN THE HIGH MOVING OFFSHORE AND THE NEXT APPROACHING STORM
SYSTEM. EVEN WITH SOME INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS THURSDAY
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 60 TO LOWER 70S.

CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE FRIDAY OR
SATURDAY. THERE IS MUCH DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS REGARDING THE
FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN MUCH MORE
AMPLIFIED WITH THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH THAN THE GFS AND CANADIAN. IN
RESPONSE THE ECMWF DEVELOPED A SURFACE WAVE OVER THE SOUTHEAST
BRINGING IT INTO THE MID ATLANTIC FRIDAY NIGHT. THE GFS IS WEAKER
AND SLOWER WITH THE SYSTEM HOLDING OFF THE RAIN UNTIL SATURDAY.
THERE WILL BE DISTURBED WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED WITH GOOD CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION AT SOME POINT FROM LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 11Z...LIGHT RAIN WAS OVER PHF ORF AND ECG AND IS NOT EXPECTED
TO REACH SBY OR RIC. VSBYS WILL OCCASIONALLY LOWER TO AROUND 5
MILES IN THE PCPN. CEILINGS HAVE REMAINED SURPRISINGLY HIGH AND
MOST LIKELY ORF AND PHF WILL REMAIN ABOVE 3K FT. TOOK ECG DOWN TO
025 FROM 15-19Z WHERE CONDITIONS ARE MORE MOIST. PCPN SHOULD END
FROM W TO E BY AROUND MIDDAY. DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL BRING MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES TO THE AREA BY LATE THIS AFTN OR EARLY THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...CLOUDS INCREASE MONDAY MORNING AS PCPN LIKELY SPREADS
EAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM. BRIEF IFR IS PSBL
ESPECIALLY AT RIC WHERE PCPN SHOULD BEGIN AS SNOW. CONDITIONS
IMPROVE BY LATE MONDAY. EXPECT VFR TO THEN PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY.

.MARINE...
A NORTHERLY SURGE COUNTIES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN WATERS THIS MORNING
WITH THE DEEPENING LOW OFFSHORE. CONDITIONS WILL BE CLOSE TO SCA BUT
SHOULD STAY JUST BELOW SCA. SEAS WILL RUN 3-4 FEET WITH UP TO 5 FEET
IN THE COASTAL WATERS ALONG AND S OF THE NC/VA BORDER. WINDS
INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST ONCE AGAIN EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND
MARGINAL SCA FOR WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE. CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO
ADD SCA AT THIS TIME.

A CLIPPER SYSTEM TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY. AS THIS MOVES
OFFSHORE LATE MONDAY...THE SURFACE LOW WILL INTENSIFY. WINDS
INCREASE OUT OF THE NW AND SCA CRITERIA IS LIKELY MONDAY EVENING
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY ACROSS ALL OF THE WATERS. NO OTHER MARINE
ISSUES APPEAR THROUGH MID WEEK.

.HYDROLOGY...
MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES AT THE WESTHAM GAGE AT RICHMOND. RIVER
LEVELS WILL CONTINUE DROPPING TODAY...BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY LATE
AFTN OR EARLY EVENING. SEE WBCFLSAKQ FOR MORE INFORMATION.

.CLIMATE...
SEE WBCPNSAKQ FOR DETAILS ON METEOROLOGICAL WINTER (DEC-FEB) AT
RICHMOND AND NORFOLK (BOTH BEING 4TH WARMEST ON RECORD).

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM/AJZ
SHORT TERM...MAM/AJZ
LONG TERM...JAO
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...LSA/JO
HYDROLOGY...AKQ
CLIMATE...AKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WAKEFIELD VA

655 AM EST SUN MAR 4 2012

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST IR/WV IMAGERY SHOWING AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHING
ACROSS/INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS MORNING. TO THE
SOUTHEAST...OLD COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED JUST OFF THE
CAROLINA/SOUTHEAST COAST WITH A WEAK SFC REFLECTION MOVING ALONG
IT JUST OFF THE NC COAST. BACKING SOUTHERLY FLOW IN MID LEVELS,
OWING TO ARRIVING TROUGH FROM THE WEST, HAS ALLOWED FOR A NARROW
BAND OF SHRAS TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING. AS EXPECTED, THIS ACTIVITY
HAS REMAINED MAINLY ACROSS CAROLINAS INTO SE VA...OR MAINLY FROM
EMV TO ORF TO WAL ACROSS AKQLAND. HAVE ALLOWED FOR CATEGORICAL
POPS THROUGH MID MORNING OVER THESE AREAS, BUFFERED BY SLIGHT TO
LOW CHC POP FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING JUST TO THE NORTH INTO
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF RIC METRO INTO THE NORTHERN NECK AND ATLANTIC
COASTAL SIDE OF MD EASTERN SHORE (MAINLY ALONG/EAST OF HIGHWAY
113). GRADUALLY DIMINISH POP FOR LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTN
AS BEST FORCING GETS SHUNTED OFFSHORE AS TROUGH TO THE WEST PIVOTS
EAST.

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 11Z...LIGHT RAIN WAS OVER PHF ORF AND ECG AND IS NOT EXPECTED
TO REACH SBY OR RIC. VSBYS WILL OCCASIONALLY LOWER TO AROUND 5
MILES IN THE PCPN. CEILINGS HAVE REMAINED SURPRISINGLY HIGH AND
MOST LIKELY ORF AND PHF WILL REMAIN ABOVE 3K FT. TOOK ECG DOWN TO
025 FROM 15-19Z WHERE CONDITIONS ARE MORE MOIST. PCPN SHOULD END
FROM W TO E BY AROUND MIDDAY. DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL BRING MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES TO THE AREA BY LATE THIS AFTN OR EARLY THIS EVENING.

.MARINE...
A NORTHERLY SURGE WAS MOVING THROUGH THE WATERS THIS MORNING BUT
SHOULD STAY JUST BELOW SCA CRITERIA. WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE
WEST ONCE AGAIN EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND MARGINAL SCA FOR WINDS
AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE. CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO ADD SCA AT THIS TIME.

.HYDROLOGY...
MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES AT THE WESTHAM GAGE AT RICHMOND. RIVER
LEVELS WILL CONTINUE DROPPING TODAY...BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY EARLY
AFTN. SEE WBCFLSAKQ FOR MORE INFORMATION.

.CLIMATE...
SEE WBCPNSAKQ FOR DETAILS ON METEOROLOGICAL WINTER (DEC-FEB) AT
RICHMOND AND NORFOLK (BOTH BEING 4TH WARMEST ON RECORD).

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM/AJZ
LONG TERM...JAO
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...LSA
HYDROLOGY...
CLIMATE...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PITTSBURGH PA

626 AM EST SUN MAR 4 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW SHOWERS AND COLD WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE TODAY AS A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA BY LATE MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH MID-
WEEK WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN BY LATE WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
625 AM UPDATE...UPDATED POPS IN THE SHORT TERM FOR INCREASE IN
SCATTERED -SHSN THIS MORNING. MUCH OF COVERAGE AT THIS LIMITED AND
VERY LIGHT. AS SURFACE TROUGH PUSHES SE DURING DAY...EXPECT -SHSN
COVERAGE TO INCREASE. THINK HRRR HAS GOOD HANDLE ON AREAL COVERAGE
INCREASE AND TIMING. TEMPERATURES LOOK ON TRACK. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING
SECONDARY COLD FRONT ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY SOUTHWEST ACROSS LAKES
ONTARIO AND ERIE TO NEAR KLAN AND THEN TO KORD WILL CONTINUE SOUTH
AND EAST TODAY. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP IN ADVANCE AND WITH
FRONT AND THEN BE SLIGHTLY ENHANCED BY LAKE EFFECT BEHIND FRONT.
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LIMITED WITH MAYBE 1-2 INCHES EXTREME NORTHERN
COUNTIES...2-3 INCHES MOUNTAINS AND LESS THAN INCH ELSEWHERE.
WINDS TO INCREASE A LITTLE FROM WEST THEN NORTHWEST WITH SOME
GUSTS 15 TO 20 KTS BEHIND FRONT.

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ALL OF THE WX TAKES PLACE RIGHT OF THE GATE MON AS A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTERACTS WITH SUFFICIENT LLVL MOISTURE IN THE
RIDGES. INCREASED POPS TO LKLY FOR GARRETT AND TUCKER COUNTIES
WITH CHC NUMBERS FOR ADJACENT LOCATIONS. ANY DAYTIME SNOW ACCUM
WILL BE AN INCH OR LESS. WINTER PCPN QUICKLY ENDS MON EVENING AS
MID LEVEL ENERGY MOVES EAST. DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED THE
BALANCE OF THE SHORT TERM AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS OUR WEATHER.
TEMPERATURES WILL GET WARMER EACH SUCCESSIVE DAY / NIGHT.

.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-SHSN TO DEVELOP WITH SECONDARY FRONT PUSHING SE FROM THE LAKES. AT
THIS TIME DON`T EXPECT MUCH RESTRICTION TO VSBY WITH ONLY 5SM.
HOWEVER, 5-6+ SM IN -SHSN PROBABLY MOST OF THE DAY. CEILINGS
GENERALLY 30K-35K. WEST WINDS 8-12 WILL BECOME NW WITH SOME GUSTS
15-20KTS THIS AFTERNOON. SMALL CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM TO DIVE SOUTH
OF REGION TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE AREA ON MONDAY AND CONTOURS TO DOMINATE
THE WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS. NEXT FRONT
APPROACHES ON THURSDAY WITH MVFR AND SCATTERED IFR IN SHOWERS.

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WAKEFIELD VA

433 AM EST SUN MAR 4 2012

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...LIGHT RAIN WAS OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CAROLINAS AND WAS REPORTED AT BOTH ORF AND ECG. IN NORTH CAROLINA...
VFR CONDITIONS (ABV 3K FT AND 5 MILES) PREVAIL EXCEPT ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST...EVEN WHERE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN
PER HOUR IS BEING REPORTED. LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE EARLIER
TAFS EXCEPT TO ADJUST TIMING OF PCPN SLIGHTLY AND TO RAISE CEILINGS
A BIT. NO IFR IS IN ANY OF THE FORECASTS. ALTHOUGH LIGHT RAIN IS
MENTIONED FOR RIC AND SBY...CONFIDENCE IN THAT OCCURRING AT EITHER
LOCATION IS LOW TO MEDIUM. RAIN ENDS FROM THE WEST LATE SUNDAY
MORNING. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR SUNDAY AFTERNOON BUT OVERCAST IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN. WINDS WILL GENERALLY RUN 10 KNOTS OR LESS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...A SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL AFFECT THE AREA MONDAY MORNING. SOME LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE PCPN. ONCE THIS SYSTEM CLEARS THE
COAST LATE MONDAY...EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY.

.MARINE...
SEAS HAVE DROPPED BELOW 5 FEET AND AS A RESULT NO HEADLINES ARE IN
EFFECT. A WEAK NORTHERLY SURGE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS THIS
MORNING BUT SHOULD STAY BELOW SCA CRITERIA. WINDS INCREASE OUT OF
THE WEST ONCE AGAIN EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND MARGINAL SCA FOR WINDS
AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE. CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO ADD SCA AT THIS TIME.

CLIPPER SYSTEM TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY. AS THIS MOVES
OFFSHORE LATE MONDAY...THE SURFACE LOW WILL INTENSIFY. WINDS
INCREASE OUT OF THE NW AND SCA CRITERIA IS LIKELY MONDAY EVENING
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY ACROSS ALL OF THE WATERS. NO OTHER MARINE
ISSUES APPEAR THROUGH MID WEEK.

.HYDROLOGY...
MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES AT THE WESTHAM GAGE AT RICHMOND. RIVER
LEVELS WILL CONTINUE DROPPING TODAY...BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY EARLY
AFTN. SEE WBCFLSAKQ FOR MORE INFORMATION.

.CLIMATE...
SEE WBCPNSAKQ FOR DETAILS ON METEOROLOGICAL WINTER (DEC-FEB) AT
RICHMOND AND NORFOLK (BOTH BEING 4TH WARMEST ON RECORD).

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM/AJZ
LONG TERM...JAO
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...LSA
HYDROLOGY...
CLIMATE...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WAKEFIELD VA

409 AM EST SUN MAR 4 2012

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

LATEST IR/WV IMAGERY SHOWING AMPLIFYING PUSHING ACROSS/INTO THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS MORNING. TO THE SOUTHEAST...OLD COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED JUST OFF THE CAROLINA/SOUTHEAST
COAST. BACKING SOUTHERLY FLOW OWING TO ARRIVING TROUGH FROM THE
WEST HAS ALLOWED FOR A NARROW BAND OF SHRAS TO DEVELOP THIS
MORNING. AS EXPECTED, THIS ACTIVITY HAS REMAINED MAINLY ACROSS
CAROLINAS INTO SE VA...OR MAINLY FROM EMV TO ORF TO WAL. HAVE
ALLOWED FOR CATEGORICAL POPS THROUGH MID MORNING OVER THESE
AREAS...BUFFERED BY SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POP JUST TO THE NORTH INTO
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF RIC METRO INTO THE NORTHERN NECK AND ATLANTIC
COASTAL SIDE OF MD EASTERN SHORE (MAINLY ALONG/EAST OF HIGHWAY
113). GRADUALLY DIMINISH POP FOR LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTN
AS BEST FORCING GETS SHUNTED OFFSHORE AS TROUGH TO THE WEST PIVOTS
EAST.

FOR HIGHS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE CHALLENGING TODAY ESPECIALLY THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY RUNNING 2-3 DEGREES WARMER
THAN LAMP/HRRR NUMBERS AND HV ACCORDINGLY STAYED ON THE WARM SIDE
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. DOWNSLOPE FLOW INLAND SHOULD MAKE FOR
DRYING CONDITIONS AND AT LEAST A PARTLY SUNNY SKY INLAND. HAVE
STAYED CLOSE TO MET/MAV BLEND HERE, WITH LOW 50S FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST GENERALLY ACCEPTED WEST OF I-95. CLOSER TO THE COAST,
WITH LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS EXPECTED, HAVE GONE CLOSE
TO THE MAV NUMBERS...AS NAM CONTINUES TO SEEMINGLY OVER- EMPHASIZE
DYNAMICAL COOLING ALONG THE COAST.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLEARING SKY EARLY THIS EVENING WITH SHORT-LIVED LULL ON THE BACK
SIDE OF DEPARTING SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO FALL RATHER QUICKLY
SUNDAY NIGHT AS WINDS BRIEFLY DROP OFF AND SKY REMAINS CLEAR EARLY
IN THE EVENING. EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST LATE
TONIGHT AHEAD OF VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WILL SLIDE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TOWARDS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. MODELS
NOW IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS TROUGH (CLIPPER
SYSTEM) AS IT CROSSES THE MID ATLANTIC MONDAY...WITH THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW TRACKING ACROSS/JUST SOUTH OF THE VA/NC
BORDER. THE THERMAL PROFILE ALOFT CRASHES WITH THIS SYSTEM...1000-500MB
THICKNESS VALUES AROUND 5250M AND LOW-LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES
RANGE FROM AROUND 1290M N...TO 1310M S. THIS WOULD SUPPORT THE
POSSIBILITY OF A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW AS PCPN ARRIVES AFTER
09Z/MONDAY. AT THIS POINT THE PRECIP TYPE GENERALLY REFLECTS SREF
PROBABILITIES...WHICH HAVE TRENDED UPWARDS NICELY WITH THE 21Z/03
SUITE, ALTHOUGH AGREE WITH HPC THAT THIS IS LIKELY ATTRIBUTABLE IN
PART TO THE LIKELY ERRONEOUSLY COLDER NAM MEMBERS. STILL...CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH ENOUGH FOR HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POP WEST OF RIC MONDAY
MORNING WITH CHC POP FOR MAINLY LIQUID PCPN LATER MONDAY MORNING.
QPF WITH THIS EVENT WILL BE RATHER LOW, AND AGAIN HAVE STAYED ON
THE LOWER END OF SREF ENSEMBLES FOR QPF. TIMING OF THIS EVENT JUST
PRIOR TO DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD AT LEAST PARTIALLY NEGATE MARGINAL
BL TEMPERATURES, LEAVING THE POTENTIAL FOR A LIGHT SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION (~1") ON GRASSY/ELEVATED SFCS MONDAY MORNING BEFORE
QUICKLY MIXING AND TURNING OVER TO RAIN LATER MONDAY MORNING.
CLEARING COMES QUICKLY BEHIND THE SYSTEM...BY LATE MORN INLAND
INTO THE LATE AFTN COASTAL ZONES. FOR TEMPERATURES, LOOK FOR HIGHS
MONDAY MID/UPPER 40S.

.HYDROLOGY...
MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES AT THE WESTHAM GAGE AT RICHMOND. RIVER
LEVELS WILL CONTINUE DROPPING TODAY...BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY EARLY
AFTN. SEE WBCFLSAKQ FOR MORE INFORMATION.

.CLIMATE...
SEE WBCPNSAKQ FOR DETAILS ON METEOROLOGICAL WINTER (DEC-FEB) AT
RICHMOND AND NORFOLK (BOTH BEING 4TH WARMEST ON RECORD).

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ650-652.

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM/AJZ
LONG TERM...JAO
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...LSA
HYDROLOGY...
CLIMATE...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WAKEFIELD VA

145 AM EST SUN MAR 4 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND MOVES UP
THE SOUTHEAST COAST OVERNIGHT...BEFORE MOVING AWAY FROM THE COAST
OFF THE OUTER BANKS SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS
IN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A QUICK MOVING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...WHICH TRACK ACROSS THE VIRGINIA NORTH
CAROLINA BORDER MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
INCREASED POPS A BIT MORE ACROSS COASTAL NE NC THIS EVENING AS
RAIN HAS BEGUN TO OVERSPREAD EASTERN NC FAIRLY WELL. FURTHER TO
THE NORTH...DRIER AIR IN THE LOW-LEVELS IS KEEPING RAIN FROM
GETTING ANY FURTHER NORTH SO ONLY HAVE CHC POPS AS FAR NORTH AS
THE VA TIDEWATER THROUGH 06Z. 00Z NAM AND LATEST HRRR STILL
SUPPORT PRECIP EVENTUALLY GETTING FURTHER NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT...WITH
BEST CHANCE EXTENDING FROM THE VA EASTERN SHORE SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE TIDEWATER AND NE NC SO NO CHANGES NECESSARY TO GOING FORECAST.
LOW TEMPS WILL EVENTUALLY SETTLE INTO THE UPR 30S TO LOW 40S.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROUGH OVER TX WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND
SHARPEN ALONG THE GULF COAST TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
BACKING OF THE MID AND UPPER FLOW...WHICH WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO
SURGE BACK UP THE COAST LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THERE
IS DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT ON AN ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE CENTER
FORMING (AND MOVING NE) OFF THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT...BEFORE
DEPARTING OFF THE OUTER BANKS SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...THERE IS
MORE DISAGREEMENT WITHIN THE MOISTURE FIELDS...BOTH AMOUNTS AND
HOW FAR INLAND RAIN INVADES. AT THIS TIME THE LEAST BULLISH IS THE
ECMWF...WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION FROM THE
FL PANHANDLE TO THE GA COAST. GIVEN THIS...THE HIGHEST POPS
(CATEGORICAL) ARE FORECAST OVER NE NC FROM THE CHOWAN RIVER EAST
AND OVER THE TIDEWATER AND LOWER VA EASTERN SHORE MAINLY LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...WITH A SHARP DECLINE FROM S
CENTRAL VA TO THE LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE. GENERALLY AN ADDITIONAL
0.3 TO 0.6 IN OF RAIN COULD FALL WHERE CATEGORICAL POPS ARE
FORECAST. WHILE NOT ENOUGH OF A CHANCE TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST
GRIDS A FEW ICE PELLETS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF
THE PRECIP AS IT INTERACTS WITH DRIER AIR TO THE WEST.

A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SWINGS
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT OTHERWISE A WEST TO EAST IMPROVING
TREND IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CHALLENGING ESPECIALLY
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO STEADILY DROP OFF
OVERNIGHT AND REACH MINIMA FROM THE UPPER 30S NW...TO LOW 40S SE
TOWARD MORNING. AT THIS POINT LOW 50S ARE FORECAST FOR HIGHS WEST OF
I-95 SUNDAY...WITH MID 40S CLOSER TO THE COAST WITH LOW CLOUDS AND
RAIN EXPECTED. OF NOTE...TEMPERATURES ARE MORE REFLECTIVE OF THE MAV
NUMBERS (ALBEIT A FEW DEGREES COOLER) THAN THE NAM-BASED
GUIDANCE...WHICH APPARENTLY OVER-EMPHASIZES DYNAMICAL COOLING ALONG
THE COAST AND TRIES TO MAKE TEMPERATURES COOL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A
CHANGE-OVER TO SNOW ALONG THE COAST. THAT SOLUTION WAS DISREGARDED
FOR THIS FORECAST.

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL
TROUGH DIVES ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
TROUGH (CLIPPER SYSTEM) CROSSES THE MID ATLANTIC MONDAY...WITH THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE VA/NC BORDER. THE THERMAL
PROFILE ALOFT CRASHES WITH THIS SYSTEM...1000-500MB THICKNESS VALUES
AROUND 5250M AND LOW-LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES RANGE FROM AROUND 1290M
N...TO 1310 M S. THIS WOULD SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF A PERIOD OF
LIGHT SNOW (GENERALLY IF IT OCCURS EARLY ENOUGH IN THE DAY). AT
THIS POINT THE PRECIP TYPE GENERALLY REFLECTS SREF
PROBABILITIES...AND THE CHANCE OF MEASURABLE LIQUID WAS CAPPED AT 30
PERCENT. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE ON THE IS SYSTEM AS THE GFS AND
ECMWF HAVE BEEN SOMEWHAT CONSISTENT AND THE NAM HAS SEEMED TO TREND
THIS DIRECTION. NEVERTHELESS...CLIPPER SYSTEMS CAN BE FICKLE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WERE COOLED A FEW DEGREES INTO THE MID/UPPER 40S.

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...LIGHT RAIN WAS OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CAROLINAS AND WAS REPORTED AT BOTH ORF AND ECG. IN NORTH CAROLINA...
VFR CONDITIONS (ABV 3K FT AND 5 MILES) PREVAIL EXCEPT ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST...EVEN WHERE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN
PER HOUR IS BEING REPORTED. LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE EARLIER
TAFS EXCEPT TO ADJUST TIMING OF PCPN SLIGHTLY AND TO RAISE CEILINGS
A BIT. NO IFR IS IN ANY OF THE FORECASTS. ALTHOUGH LIGHT RAIN IS
MENTIONED FOR RIC AND SBY...CONFIDENCE IN THAT OCCURRING AT EITHER
LOCATION IS LOW TO MEDIUM. RAIN ENDS FROM THE WEST LATE SUNDAY
MORNING. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR SUNDAY AFTERNOON BUT OVERCAST IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN. WINDS WILL GENERALLY RUN 10 KNOTS OR LESS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.MARINE...
HAVE DROPPED THE SCA FOR THE SOUTHERN 3 COASTAL ZONES AS THE OBS
AT BUOY 40099 AND 40100 BOTH SHOW SEAS DOWN TO 4 FT AS THE WINDS
CONTINUE TO RELAX WITH THE STALLED FRONT. HAVE LEFT THE SCA IN
EFFECT FURTHER NORTH AS SEAS AT BUOY 40009 REMAIN AROUND 5 FT. BUT
WITH THE SLACKING OF THE WINDS...EXPECT TO SEE THE SEAS HERE
CONTINUE TO DECREASE.

PREV DISCUSSION... SCA WILL ONLY BE IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST AND MAINLY FOR SEAS OF 4 TO 6
FEET. WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO 15 KT HOWEVER THE CAPE CHARLES BUOYS
AND THE BUOYS OFFSHORE OF DUCK NC ARE REPORTING SEAS OF 5 FEET.
SEAS ARE AROUND 6 FEET FURTHER NORTH. SEAS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT FALLING BELOW SCA.

THE COLD FRONT HAS BEEN SLOW TO PUSH EAST BUT IT WILL REACH THE BAY
AND COASTAL WATERS SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. WINDS WITH THE FRONT ARE
NOT STRONG AND WILL BECOME NW AROUND 10 TO 15 KT TONIGHT. OVER
THE BAY AND SOUND...WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT A FEW HOURS
AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE COAST SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN THE FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL KEEP WINDS NW AROUND 15
KT. WINDS BECOME SLY AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS INCREASE ONCE
AGAIN LATE MONDAY BECOMING NW AS THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS ALONG
THE COAST BEHIND AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE. SCA MAY BE NEEDED
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH PART OF TUESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FROM THE WEST LATE TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MOVING SLOWLY OFFSHORE THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING CALMER
CONDITIONS TO THE BAY AND COASTAL WATERS MID WEEK. LOOKING AHEAD
TO THE END OF THE WEEK MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT
STORM SYSTEM WHICH SHOULD IMPACT THE REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO
EARLY SATURDAY WITH POSSIBLE SCA CONDITIONS.

.HYDROLOGY...
MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AT THE WESTHAM GAGE AT RICHMOND.
THE RIVER IS CRESTING THIS AFTERNOON ONE FOOT ABOVE FLOOD STAGE
AND WILL REMAIN IN MINOR FLOOD THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

.CLIMATE...
SEE WBCPNSAKQ FOR DETAILS ON METEOROLOGICAL WINTER (DEC-FEB) AT
RICHMOND AND NORFOLK (BOTH BEING 4TH WARMEST ON RECORD).

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ650-652.

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ
NEAR TERM...AJZ/JDM
SHORT TERM...AJZ
LONG TERM...JAO
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...ESS/JAO
HYDROLOGY...
CLIMATE...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DULUTH MN

1228 PM CST SUN MAR 4 2012

.UPDATE...CANCELED ADVISORY FOR DULUTH AREA AS MAIN LAKE EFFECT
SNOW BAND HAS MOVED NORTH OVER SWRN LAKE COUNTY NEAR THE TWO
HARBORS/GOOSEBERRY FALLS AREA. THIS LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND SHOULD
MEANDER IN THIS AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...PRODUCING ANOTHER 1
TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION. SO WILL KEEP WARNING IN EFFECT
TIL 4 PM CST FOR MNZ020. WE ARE EXPECTING THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO
BECOME MORE SCATTERED THIS EVENING AS THE WINDS BECOMES LIGHT AND
THEN TURNS OUT OF THE WEST OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE FCST LOOKS ON
TRACK FOR TODAY.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CST SUN MAR 4 2012/

AVIATION...18Z TAFS.
WEAK INVERTED SFC TROF CONTINUES TO HANG AROUND WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR WITH MVFR CIGS AND OCCASIONAL -SHSN WITH VSBYS INTO MVFR
RANGE IN THE VCNTY OF THE -SHSN. KINL AND KBRD WILL BE VFR AS THEY
ARE FAR ENOUGH W OF THE TROF. KBRD MAY BE CLIPPED BY MVFR CIGS FOR
A TIME THIS AFTERNOON AS SHARP VORT MAX DIVES THROUGH EASTERN SD.
THE INVERTED TROF FINALLY DISSOLVES BY 06Z ALLOWING FOR A CLEARING
TREND. BY 15Z MONDAY...A SLY FLOW DEVELOPS IN STRONG WAA. VFR CIGS
WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM THE W AS A SFC WARM FRONT MOVES
ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. ADDED A VCSH AT KINL WHICH WILL BE
CLOSEST TO THE FRONT AND BEST FORCING TO POSSIBLY PRODUCE SOME
PCPN.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 542 AM CST SUN MAR 4 2012/

AVIATION...12Z TAFS

AN INVERTED TROUGH AND ONSHORE WINDS WERE COMBINING TO PRODUCE
SNOW OVER THE TWIN PORTS NORTH THROUGH SILVER BAY...WITH LIGHTER
SNOW FALLING IN SPOTS ACROSS THE THE REST OF THE NORTHLAND. THERE
HAS BEEN CLEARING THAT HAS MOVED AS FAR EAST AS K04W NORTH TO JUST
WEST OF KHIB TO KBDE. WE EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS WITH OCCASIONAL LOW
VFR OVER FAR EASTERN MINNESOTA AND MUCH OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
TODAY. CLOUDS MAY SCATTER OUT AT KHIB/KINL FOR A TIME...BUT A
CLIPPER MOVING SOUTHWEST OF THE NORTHLAND WILL BRING IN MORE
CLOUDS TODAY. CEILINGS MAY INITIALLY BE LOW VFR...BUT MVFR
CEILINGS WILL THEN DEVELOP. THE HEAVIEST LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND HAS
BEEN JUST NORTH AND EAST OF KDLH SO FAR THIS MORNING WITH LIFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY IN THE SNOW BAND...BUT THE RUC AND NAM12 SHOW
BACKING LOW LEVEL WINDS AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASING OVER
KDLH THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW SHOWERS MAY INCREASE IN INTENSITY THIS
AFTERNOON OVER KDLH.

THE INVERTED TROUGH WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT WITH FLOW BECOMING MORE
WEST-NORTHWEST. THIS CHANGE IN LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL ALSO ALLOW THE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO END.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 AM CST SUN MAR 4 2012/

SHORT TERM...

TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE NORTH SHORE TODAY FROM DULUTH
TO SILVER BAY WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM. A LAKE
EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON FOR
THIS AREA.

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS POSITIONED OVER THE ERN CONUS WITH AN
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN ACROSS THE WEST COAST. AT THE SFC AN
INVERTED TROUGH REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...EXTENDING
FROM LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH MICHIGAN AND BACK INTO WRN LAKE
SUPERIOR. A SFC HIGH IS SITUATED OVER NRN ONTARIO WITH A SECOND
NARROW SFC HIGH CUTTING THROUGH THE RED RIVER VALLEY AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM PREPARES TO MOVE THROUGH SRN MN FROM THE NRN ROCKIES. THE
EXTENSION OF THIS INVERTED TROUGH INTO THE NORTHLAND ALONG WITH
THE COMBINATION OF A PERSISTENT ELY FLOW FROM THE SFC HIGH TO THE
NORTH AND COLD AIR ALOFT HAS ALLOWED THE LOCALIZED LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE LAST 24-36 HOURS.

ATTM...IT APPEARS THIS SET UP WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS MORNING
AND INTO THE MID AFTERNOON TODAY BEFORE THE WINDS SHIFT TO THE
WEST AND CUT OFF THE LES PROCESSES. LATEST NAM12 AND RUC13 BOTH
INDICATE THE LOW LEVEL E/NE WINDS...STEEP 0-3KM LAPSE
RATES...SATURATED BL AND 1000-900MB CONVERGENT CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING UNTIL AROUND 21/22Z. A
FAIRLY INTENSE LINE OF REGENERATIVE LE SNOW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
INDICATED ON THE DLH RADAR FOR THE PAST 4-5 HOURS MAINLY
AROUND TWO HARBORS...AND IT APPEARS WILL CONTINUE FOR QUITE SOME
TIME. THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER THIS BAND COULD VEER TO
THE NORTH TO AROUND SILVER BAY...OR TO THE SOUTH TO DULUTH...OR
EVEN IF ADDITIONAL SNOW BANDS COULD DEVELOP THROUGH THE HEAD OF
THE LAKE. GIVEN THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND FAVORABLE CONDITIONS
FOR LES TO PERSIST...WILL ISSUE A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FOR
SOUTHEAST ST. LOUIS COUNTY AND SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY ALONG THE LAKE
SHORE UNTIL 4 PM. WILL LIKELY SEE 3 TO 5 INCHES IN THIS
AREA...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN LOCATIONS THAT SEE A
PERSISTENT MDT/HVY SNOW BAND THIS MORNING. THE AREA AROUND TWO
HARBORS IS THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION FOR THE HEAVIEST SNOW. EVEN
THOUGH CARLTON COUNTY AND PARTS OF WEST DULUTH/HERMANTOWN ARE IN
THE ADVISORY...A GOOD PORTION OF THIS ZONE WILL ONLY SEE 1-2
INCHES AT MOST. THE MAIN AREA WE ARE CONCENTRATING ON IS FROM THE
NE SECTIONS OF DULUTH NEWD ALONG THE SHORE TO AROUND SLIVER BAY.

COULD SEE A FEW LIGHT SHOW SHOWERS LINGER OVER THE ARROWHEAD AND
NW WI TONIGHT...BUT WITH ONLY LIGHT ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS
EXPECTED. THE SFC RIDGE AXIS SLIDES QUICKLY THROUGH THE REGION
TOMORROW AND ALLOWS CONDITIONS TO DRY OUT...SKIES TO CLEAR OFF
PARTIALLY AND TEMPERATURES TO WARM WELL INTO THE 30S.

THE NEXT WEAK SYSTEM SLIDES ACROSS THE NORTH LATE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND BRINGS ANOTHER CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
BORDERLAND FROM INTL FALLS TO VIRGINIA TO GRAND MARAIS. ONLY LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.

LONG TERM...

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

THE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

WARM AIR WILL BE IN PLACE EARLY IN THE PERIOD. SOME LIGHT PRECIP
WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE FAR NORTH...WHICH WOULD
LIKELY FALL AS A LIGHT MIX. PERSISTENT WAA AND STRENGTHENING
INVERSION COULD LEAD TO BOTH SOME DRIZZLE AND MORE CLOUD COVER
THAN WE CURRENTLY HAVE IN THE GRIDS. AT THIS TIME...WE`LL KEEP
TUESDAY DRY AND CLOUD COVER AS PARTLY CLOUDY. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THE NORTHLAND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH A CHANCE
FOR PRECIP BOTH AHEAD AND BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. WE ADDED A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN TUESDAY EVENING WITH 35-45KT SOUTHWEST WINDS
AT 850MB FORECAST. RAIN SHOULD BE THE MAIN PRECIP TYPE AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WITH WARM 850MB TEMPS FORECAST...TRANSITIONING TO MAINLY
SNOW WELL BEHIND THE FRONT. PRECIP AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT.

GFS/ECMWF DIFFER SOME ON THURSDAY WITH HOW FAR SOUTH THEY BRING A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE. WE WENT CLOSER TO THE
ECMWF AND HAVE A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW. AGAIN WITH THIS
SYSTEM...PRECIP AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE WHICH COULD SEE SOME
BETTER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS DUE TO LAKE EFFECT PROCESSES.

NEXT WEEKEND LOOKS DRY WITH A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP FORECAST BY
BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF.

.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 25 11 33 28 / 60 20 10 10
INL 24 5 35 29 / 20 10 40 20
BRD 28 13 36 30 / 20 10 10 10
HYR 28 8 34 29 / 30 10 10 10
ASX 26 12 35 29 / 40 20 10 10

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MNZ020.

WI...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...BERDES

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DULUTH MN

1127 AM CST SUN MAR 4 2012

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS.
WEAK INVERTED SFC TROF CONTINUES TO HANG AROUND WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR WITH MVFR CIGS AND OCCASIONAL -SHSN WITH VSBYS INTO MVFR
RANGE IN THE VCNTY OF THE -SHSN. KINL AND KBRD WILL BE VFR AS THEY
ARE FAR ENOUGH W OF THE TROF. KBRD MAY BE CLIPPED BY MVFR CIGS FOR
A TIME THIS AFTERNOON AS SHARP VORT MAX DIVES THROUGH EASTERN SD.
THE INVERTED TROF FINALLY DISSOLVES BY 06Z ALLOWING FOR A CLEARING
TREND. BY 15Z MONDAY...A SLY FLOW DEVELOPS IN STRONG WAA. VFR CIGS
WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM THE W AS A SFC WARM FRONT MOVES
ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. ADDED A VCSH AT KINL WHICH WILL BE
CLOSEST TO THE FRONT AND BEST FORCING TO POSSIBLY PRODUCE SOME
PCPN.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 542 AM CST SUN MAR 4 2012/

AVIATION...12Z TAFS

THE INVERTED TROUGH WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT WITH FLOW BECOMING MORE
WEST-NORTHWEST. THIS CHANGE IN LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL ALSO ALLOW THE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO END.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 AM CST SUN MAR 4 2012/

SHORT TERM...

TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...

LONG TERM...

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

THE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

NEXT WEEKEND LOOKS DRY WITH A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP FORECAST BY
BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF.

.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 25 11 33 28 / 60 20 10 10
INL 24 5 35 29 / 20 10 40 20
BRD 28 13 36 30 / 20 10 10 10
HYR 28 8 34 29 / 30 10 10 10
ASX 26 12 35 29 / 40 20 10 10

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MNZ037.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MNZ020.

WI...NONE.
&&

AVIATION...GSF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DULUTH MN

542 AM CST SUN MAR 4 2012

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS

AN INVERTED TROUGH AND ONSHORE WINDS WERE COMBINING TO PRODUCE
SNOW OVER THE TWIN PORTS NORTH THROUGH SILVER BAY...WITH LIGHTER
SNOW FALLING IN SPOTS ACROSS THE THE REST OF THE NORTHLAND. THERE
HAS BEEN CLEARING THAT HAS MOVED AS FAR EAST AS K04W NORTH TO JUST
WEST OF KHIB TO KBDE. WE EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS WITH OCCASIONAL LOW
VFR OVER FAR EASTERN MINNESOTA AND MUCH OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
TODAY. CLOUDS MAY SCATTER OUT AT KHIB/KINL FOR A TIME...BUT A
CLIPPER MOVING SOUTHWEST OF THE NORTHLAND WILL BRING IN MORE
CLOUDS TODAY. CEILINGS MAY INITIALLY BE LOW VFR...BUT MVFR
CEILINGS WILL THEN DEVELOP. THE HEAVIEST LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND HAS
BEEN JUST NORTH AND EAST OF KDLH SO FAR THIS MORNING WITH LIFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY IN THE SNOWBAND...BUT THE RUC AND NAM12 SHOW
BACKING LOW LEVEL WINDS AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASING OVER
KDLH THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW SHOWERS MAY INCREASE IN INTENSITY THIS
AFTERNOON OVER KDLH.

THE INVERTED TROUGH WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT WITH FLOW BECOMING MORE
WEST-NORTHWEST. THIS CHANGE IN LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL ALSO ALLOW THE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO END.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 AM CST SUN MAR 4 2012/

SHORT TERM...

TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...

LONG TERM...

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

THE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

NEXT WEEKEND LOOKS DRY WITH A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP FORECAST BY
BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF.

.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 25 9 33 27 / 60 30 10 10
INL 24 5 35 29 / 20 10 40 20
BRD 28 11 37 29 / 30 10 10 10
HYR 28 7 35 27 / 30 20 10 10
ASX 26 10 35 28 / 40 20 10 10

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MNZ037.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MNZ020.

WI...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...TENTINGER
LONG TERM....MELDE
AVIATION...MELDE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DULUTH MN

301 AM CST SUN MAR 4 2012

.SHORT TERM...

TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...

.LONG TERM...

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

THE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

NEXT WEEKEND LOOKS DRY WITH A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP FORECAST BY
BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF.

.AVIATION...06Z TAF ISSUANCE...

SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND
OVERNIGHT. THE MOST SUBSTANTIAL SNOWFALL WILL BE IN THE KDLH
AREA...AS EASTERLY WINDS OFF LAKE SUPERIOR CONTINUE TO BRING SNOW
SHOWERS. SKY COVER WILL VARY WIDELY...FROM VFR TO IFR AND EVEN
LIFR IN THE STRONGEST SNOW SHOWERS. AWAY FROM LAKE SUPERIOR
CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR TO MVFR. THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
LAKE.

.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 25 9 33 27 / 60 30 10 10
INL 24 5 35 29 / 20 10 40 20
BRD 28 11 37 29 / 30 10 10 10
HYR 28 7 35 27 / 30 20 10 10
ASX 26 10 35 28 / 40 20 10 10

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MNZ020-037.

WI...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...TENTINGER
LONG TERM....MELDE
AVIATION...DAP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GLASGOW MT

1007 AM MST SUN MAR 4 2012

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY...
A MUCH WARMER AIRMASS ARRIVED FROM THE W YESTERDAY AND OVERNIGHT.
THERE WAS A WEAK COLD FRONT FROM THE NW MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT...BUT IMPACT ON TEMPS MINOR. 9 AM TEMPS WERE IN THE
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S THROUGHOUT NE MT. FURTHER WARMING TODAY
THOUGH SOMEWHAT LIMITED AS THE AIRMASS IS ALREADY WELL MIXED OUT
IN NW WINDS IN LOWER LEVELS.

WEAK ECHOES SEEN ON 88D RADAR PRODUCING FLURRIES THIS MORN ALONG
135KT NW JET. CLOUD TOPS UPSTREAM ARE LOW ON SATELLITE CHANNELS
AND MODELS AND HRRR RADAR LOOP INDICATE FURTHER DRYING FOR OUR AREA.
THE JET BECOMING MORE ANTICYCLONIC TOO...SO WILL GO DRY FOR THE
AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT EXTENDS BACK UPSTREAM TO A SURFACE WAVE
IN AB. THIS WAVE WILL CAUSE THE COLD FRONT TO REVERSE AND BECOME A
WARM FRONT AS IT MOVES SE...WHICH WILL KEEP GENERALLY MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS CWA THRU THE AFTERNOON...WITH LESSENING WIND...WHICH
IS ALREADY OCCURRING. UPDATE FOR POPS...TEMPS...WINDS. SIMONSEN

PREVIOUS SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA....TODAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...A STRONG UPPER JET ALOFT AND A SURFACE BOUNDARY ARE
WORKING TOGETHER THIS MORNING TO PRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA. THE UPPER JET AND SURFACE
BOUNDARY LIFT NORTHEAST TODAY INTO TONIGHT BRINGING IN WARM AIR
AND DRY CONDITIONS.

MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH IT WILL GET
VERY WARM ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA. COULD SEE SOME 60S IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN ZONES. HOWEVER NOT RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES... BUT A
NICE REMINDER THAT SPRING IS COMING.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH RAIN SHOWERS CHANGING OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS
AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE UPPER SUPPORT LOOKS GOOD WITH THIS
SYSTEM WITH LAPSE RATES AROUND 8C/KM... ALONG WITH 50-100 J/KG OF
CAPE SO CAN NOT RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER WITH THE TIMING OF
THIS SYSTEM AT PEAK HEATING TIME. JUST HAVE SOME ISSUES WITH
PUTTING IN THUNDER AT THIS TIME.

MODELS THIS RUN ARE PRETTY CLOSE IN TIMING WITH THE FEATURES AND
PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES THAT CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY
HIGH WITH THE FORECAST ELEMENTS FOR THE SHORT TERM. PROTON

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
THE UPPER TROUGH THAT MOVED INTO WESTERN MONTANA TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA TUESDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEM
WILL SPLIT AND SEND MOST OF THE ENERGY SOUTHWARD OVER THE GREAT
BASIN WHICH WILL BECOME A CLOSED LOWS OVER THE FOUR CORNERS BY MID
WEEK. THE WEATHER MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS AND THE
PRECIP APPEARS TO GO AROUND US WITH THIS SYSTEM. LEFT POPS ALONE
AS THEY SEEM TO MATCH THE 00Z MODEL OUTPUT FOR THIS SYSTEM. SURFACE
HIGH FROM SASKATCHEWAN WILL SLIDE SOUTH OVER THE MONTANA NORTH
DAKOTA BORDER BRINGING CLEARING SKIES AND 850 MB TEMPS TO AS LOW
AS -14C TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD DROP LOWS INTO THE TEENS WITH A
FEW SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS FAR NORTHEASTERN MONTANA.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL TAKE OVER THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK AND CONTROL THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS EASTERN
MONTANA. EXPECT A SLOWER WARMING TREND INT0 THE WEEKEND WHERE HIGHS
MIGHT REACH THE MIDDLE 50S ACCORDING TO THE MODEL BLEND. ONE THING
THAT STOOD OUT IN THE MODELS IS THE POSITIONS OF THE CLOSED LOW
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THE 00Z
GFS/GEM HAS IT MOVING EASTWARD FASTER THEN THE 00Z ECMWF. THE
POSITION OF THIS CLOSED LOW ALONG WITH UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF
OF ALASKA ARE THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS. THE UPPER
RIDGE MOVING FROM WESTERN MONTANA TO EASTERN MONTANA FROM THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING IS PRETTY CONSISTENT ON ALL THREE
MODELS. SUNDAY AND BEYOND MODELS ARE OUT OF PHASE WITH HOW DEEP
THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL BECOME OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA. RSMITH

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A FEW SNOW OR
RAIN SHOWERS MAY AFFECT THE TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
AND BRIEFLY DROP FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO MVFR LEVELS. RAE

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HASTINGS NE

344 PM CST SUN MAR 4 2012

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY. MORNING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES
LONG WAVE RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND TROUGHING OVER THE
EAST. MID AND UPPER LEVEL JET ENERGY IS POSITIONED OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AS A RESULT. FLOW REMAINS VERY STRONG THROUGH LOWER
PORTIONS OF THE TROPOSPHERE AS WELL...WITH A ~50KT 700MB JET
STREAK AND A ~40KT 850MB JET STREAK CURRENTLY OVER PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES INCREASING MID LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS ALONG THE MID LEVEL JET
AXIS. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS SITUATED OVER
THE MISSOURI VALLEY...WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINING FROM THE
NORTHWEST ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA AS A RESULT.

PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS FROM LAPS AND RUC ANALYSIS SUGGEST BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING TO BETWEEN 750MB AND 700MB PERSISTS AT THIS HOUR ACROSS
MUCH OF OUR CWA...A TREND WHICH WILL CONTINUE UNTIL DIABATIC HEATING
IS LOST LATER THIS EVENING. ALSO...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...RUC ANALYSIS
INDICATES A 700MB JET STREAK OF ~50KTS AND AN 850MB JET STREAK OF
~40KTS ALSO PERSISTS OVER THE AREA. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20KTS TO NEAR
35KTS...WITH GUSTS AROUND 40KTS...CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA
AS A RESULT. ALTHOUGH WIND ADVISORY WINDS ARE NOT AS PREVALENT
FARTHER SOUTH/SOUTHWEST ACROSS OUR CWA...KMCK CONTINUES TO REPORT
STRONG WINDS...SOME OF WHICH COULD SLIP INTO KHDE AND KPHG TOWARDS
LATE AFTERNOON. GIVEN ALL THIS...WILL CONTINUE THE CURRENT WIND
ADVISORY THROUGH 00Z. THESE WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE VERY QUICKLY AROUND
SUNSET AS DIABATIC HEATING IS LOST AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS
DECOUPLED FROM THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT.

ALTHOUGH THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL JET AXIS IS OVER US KNOW...IT HAS
BEGUN TO DRIFT EAST...AWAY FROM OUR AREA. MID AND UPPER LEVEL JET
ENERGY SHOULD MOVE COMPLETELY OUT OF OUR AREA TONIGHT...THUS
PRESENTING LITTLE TO NO KINEMATIC FORCING ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD. DRY CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AS A RESULT.

FORECAST PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM AND OPERATIONAL GFS
SUGGEST BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING TO AROUND 800MB...IF NOT SLIGHTLY
DEEPER...WILL BE REALIZED ACROSS THE CWA MONDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE
MID LEVEL JET AXIS SHIFTS EAST INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SO WILL
THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME...THUS ELIMINATING THE INCREASED RH
VALUES WE HAVE SEEN AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER BOTH TODAY AND
YESTERDAY. THIS WILL IN TURN PRESENT AN OPPORTUNITY FOR AFTERNOON
SURFACE DEW POINTS TO DROP OFF AS BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING COMMENCES
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THANKFULLY...A STIFF SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WIND
FIELD...PERHAPS TURNING A TOUCH SOUTHWESTERLY BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON BUT NOT BY MUCH...SHOULD HELP PROMOTE DESCENT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INFLUX TO OUR AREA. THIS SHOULD HELP OFFSET AFTERNOON DROPS
IN DEW POINTS. ALL THAT BEING SAID...THE CURRENT FORECAST SHOWS MONDAY
AFTERNOON SURFACE RH VALUES DROPPING TO AROUND 21% FOR A COUPLE
HOURS ACROSS OUR EXTREME SOUTHWEST. THIS LOOKS LIKE A MARGINAL RFW
EVENT FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA MONDAY. WILL
HOLD OFF ON ANY FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES FOR MONDAY AND LET THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT SHIFTS EVALUATE FURTHER. WILL HOWEVER GO
AHEAD AND MENTION AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT IN THE HWO TO
GET THE WORD OUT.

THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING ON MONDAY...WORKING IN
CONCERT WITH A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT DUE TO AN
INTENSIFYING LEE SIDE TROUGH ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE...WILL PRESENT
YET ANOTHER BREEZY DAY ACROSS THE CWA. MAV GUIDANCE SUGGESTS OUR
EXTREME SOUTH WILL BRIEFLY HIT WIND ADVISORY THRESHOLDS BY MID
AFTERNOON...WHILE THE MET GUIDANCE KEEPS OUR ENTIRE CWA UNDER WIND
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. WILL KEEP ANY MENTION OF WIND ADVISORY WINDS
OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW...BUT MENTION INCREASED WINDS ACROSS OUR
SOUTH IN THE HWO TO GET THE WORD OUT. FUTURE SHIFTS WILL CERTAINLY WANT
TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON MONDAY WINDS TO MAKE SURE THEY WILL INDEED
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. DRY...QUIET WEATHER WILL
BE IN PLACE MONDAY NIGHT IN A FAIRLY ZONAL PATTERN ALOFT...FOLLOWING
PASSAGE OF SURFACE TROUGH. WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS WELL NORTH
INTO THE DAKOTAS ON TUESDAY AND MODELS ARE CONSISTENT THAT
UNSEASONABLY MILD H85 TEMPS OF 14C TO 15C WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE
INTERIOR CONUS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MIXING WILL REACH H85
AND SUBSEQUENT HIGH TEMPS SHLD EASILY REACH THE 70S. TUESDAY WILL
NOT BE WITHOUT WIND HOWEVER...WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING WINDS
AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER RANGING FROM AROUND 17KTS IN OUR WEST
TO OVER 30KTS IN THE EAST. SURFACE GRADIENT IS TIGHTEST IN THE EAST
AND CONDITIONS ARE LOOKING BORDERLINE FOR REACHING WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA ATTM. CURRENTLY HAVE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR OUR WESTERN
CWA FOR TUESDAY...AND WITH FRONT SLOWING DOWN...WINDS LOOK STRONGER
IN OUR WEST COMPARED TO 24HRS AGO. PROGGED RH VALUES DROP BELOW 20
PERCENT ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF OUR CWA...AND WILL LEAVE
CURRENT WATCH HEADLINE AS IS. IF FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOW...HIGHER
DPS MAY MATERIALIZE AS WELL AS HIGHER RH/S. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.

UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE SOUTHERN
STREAM CLOSING/CUTTING OFF ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE NORTHERN STREAM
TRANSLATES ACROSS THE DAKOTAS/UPPER MIDWEST. THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WITH NORTHERN SYSTEM GRADUALLY PUSHES SOUTH INTO OUR CWA
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE GFS IS FASTER WITH FRONT THAN
THE NAM AND HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE SLOWER SOLUTION. FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING INCREASES ALONG BOUNDARY...MAINLY IN THE AFTN...AND WITH
SLOWER TIMING/INCREASING FORCING HAVE EXPANDED POPS TO OUR ENTIRE
CWA. INSTABILITY PROGS SHOW SOME MUCAPE WITH NAM INDICATING VALUES
GENERALLY 25J/KG WITH GFS AS HIGH AS 200 J/K IN OUR FAR SOUTHEAST.
WILL GO WITH CONVECTIVE RAIN SHOWER WORDING FOR NOW AND MONITOR
INSTABILITY TRENDS BEFORE INSERTING THUNDER JUST YET. COLD AIR
ADVECTS SOUTH BEHIND FRONT WITH NW WINDS INCREASING FOR A TIME ON
WED. PCPN CHCS CONTINUES WED NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY BUT SHIFT
SOUTH WITH TIME ALONG SOUTHWARD ADVANCING BAROCLINIC ZONE. AS TEMPS
DIURNALLY COOL...A MIX OF R/S IS POSSIBLE.

FROM THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND MODELS DIVERGE
IN HANDLING OF THE SOUTHWEST CONUS CUTOFF UPPER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW DURING THIS TIME FRAME GIVEN THE
VARYING SOLUTIONS.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1134 AM CST SUN MAR 4 2012/

AVIATION...18Z KGRI TAF. VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY...CU DEVELOPMENT NEAR 4000FT
AGL WILL LIKELY BE OBSERVED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH CLEARING
SKIES BY 00Z. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...SUSTAINED FROM THE NORTHWEST AT AROUND 30KTS...GUSTING
TO AROUND 42KTS. SURFACE WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY 00Z...BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY 04Z. SURFACE WIND WILL THEN INTENSIFY FROM
THE SOUTH DURING THE DAY MONDAY. VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NEZ039>041-046>049-
060>064-072>077-082>087.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR NEZ060-072-073-082-083.

KS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR KSZ005>007-017>019.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR KSZ005-017.

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...BRYANT
LONG TERM...CF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTH PLATTE NE

1153 AM CST SUN MAR 4 2012

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE TODAY. LOCALLY A
BRIEF SPRINKLE IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG A SWATH FROM
KIEN...THRU KTIF...TO KBBW. CIGS MAY BRIEFLY DROP TO HIGH
MVFR...AROUND BKN025...WITHIN THE SPRINKLES. WAVE EXITS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH DECREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...BECOME CLEAR BY
MORNING. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THROUGH EARLY
EVENING...25 KTS TO 35 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 45 KTS. WINDS DIMINISH
QUICKLY THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING...BECOMING LIGHT
OVERNIGHT. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10KTS DEVELOP IN THE MORNING.

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 349 AM CST SUN MAR 4 2012/

DISCUSSION...

FORECAST CHALLENGE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS DEALS WITH ADVISORY
CRITERIA WIND SPEEDS THIS AFTERNOON...THEN THE FOCUS SHIFTS TO THE
EXPECTED WARM UP FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK AND ASSOCIATED
FIRE RISKS.

INHERITED WIND ADVISORY LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE...WITH ONLY A FEW
MINOR MODIFICATIONS NEEDED AT THIS POINT IN TIME. WILL GO AHEAD AND
BEGIN THE WIND ADVISORY FOR OUR WESTERN COUNTIES WITH THIS FORECAST
ISSUANCE...AS CRITERIA LEVEL WIND SPEEDS HAVE ALREADY BEEN REPORTED
ACROSS THE WESTERN PANHANDLE EARLY THIS MORNING. WILL ALSO INCLUDE
WESTERN CHERRY AND SHERIDAN COUNTY IN THE ADVISORY AS RECENT HRRR
MODEL OUTPUT SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL THERE FOR ADVISORY LEVEL WIND
GUSTS. OTHERWISE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL
FLOW WITH DEEP MIXING THROUGH EARLY-TO-MID AFTERNOON TODAY. WITH
MIXING POTENTIAL AOA 800MB...MOMENTUM TRANSFER OF UP TO 60 KTS IS
POSSIBLE...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SURFACE WIND GUSTS OF GREATER THAN 45
MPH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. BY MID AFTERNOON
THE STRONGEST HEIGHT RISES AND MOMENTUM ALOFT WILL BE NORTH AND EAST
OF FORECAST AREA. THUS EXPECT WIND SPEEDS TO SUBSIDE RATHER QUICKLY
LATER THIS AFTERNOON...SUCH THAT THE ONGOING WIND ADVISORY MAY BE
CANCELED A FEW HOURS EARLY. BUT FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE THE ONGOING
ADVISORY UNTIL 00Z TONIGHT.

NOT SURE WHAT TO MAKE OF THE CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM CURRENTLY BRUSHING
OUR NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES. -SN HAS BEEN REPORTED AT BOTH KVTN
AND KANW EARLY THIS MORNING...HOWEVER SATURATION ELSEWHERE HAS BEEN
SLOW TO COMMENCE. THE HRRR CONTINUES TO PAINT LIGHT QPF ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES THROUGH MID MORNING...NAM IS A BIT MORE
OPTIMISTIC AND DRIER. THE EURO AND TO SOME EXTENT THE GFS SEEM TO
WANT TO GENERATE LIGHT QPF ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES LATE THIS
MORNING. WITH THE STEEP LAPSE RATES...WEAK INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE
UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS IN PLACE...CANNOT ARGUE AGAINST THE POTENTIAL
OF A -SNSH OR -RASH THROUGH MID MORNING. HOWEVER SOUNDINGS INDICATE
MINIMAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE FACT THAT CURRENT RADAR
OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST OTHERWISE...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE THE DRIER
SOLUTIONS...MAINLY THE NAM AND END THE MENTION OF PRECIPITATION
SHORTLY AFTER 15Z THIS MORNING. REVISIONS MAY BE NEEDED.

THE THREAT OF HEIGHTENED FIRE DANGER IS STILL A POSSIBILITY TODAY
ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...HOWEVER RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES ARE LOOKING SLIGHTLY BETTER THAN COMPARED WITH
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE HAS INCREASED
SLIGHTLY...AND EVEN WITH THE WARMER EXPECTED TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON...STILL LOOKING FOR MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SOME
10 PERCENT OR GREATER ABOVE RED FLAG CRITERIA. AS OF NOW...FIRE
ZONES 210...219...AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF 204 HAVE THE
HIGHEST POTENTIAL OF EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR...BUT AGAIN NOT ENOUGH TO
WARRANT ANY FIRE HEADLINES. MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY MAY BE A
DIFFERENT STORY HOWEVER.

FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK...A FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND
USHER IN STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION. MODEL GUIDANCE HINTS AT H925
TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AOA 15C BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
FIRE CONCERNS MAY BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
APPROACH CRITICAL LEVELS. GENERALLY TRENDED TOWARD THE DRIER ECMWF
GUIDANCE AS THE MODEL HAS PERFORMED REASONABLY WELL THE PAST COUPLE
DAYS WITH THE HANDLING OF THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY FIELDS. NOW ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF A
DEEPENING HIGH PLAINS SURFACE TROUGH. GENERALLY EMPLOYED THE USE OF
A GUIDANCE BLEND FOR WIND SPEEDS. THIS BLEND WOULD SUGGEST WIND
GUSTS OF LESS THAN 25 MPH /BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA/.

H85 THERMAL RIDGE SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
ON TUESDAY...WITH H85 TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE 15C ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE TO MAXIMUM HIGHS INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...WITH POSSIBLY LOW TO
MID 70S OVER THE HEAT PRONE AREAS OF THE CWA. AGAIN SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW LOOKS TO BECOME ESTABLISHED AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS IN
RESPONSE TO A DIGGING GREAT BASIN TROUGH. WITH EXPECTED HIGH
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE 70 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT ACROSS SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...FIRE ZONES 204...210...219 AND POSSIBLY SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF 206 MAY EXPERIENCE RED FLAG CONDITIONS AS RH VALUES WILL FALL
BELOW 15 PERCENT AND WIND GUSTS WILL FLIRT WITH 25 MPH. A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH AND RED FLAG WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED FOR TUESDAY.

CHANGES ARE IN STORE THEREAFTER AS A WEST COAST UPPER TROUGH
ADVANCES ON THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THE LONG RANGE
SOLUTIONS ALL AGREE THAT A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THE
TROUGH AND BRING AN END TO THE PLEASANT WEATHER CONDITIONS. BY
MIDDAY WEDNESDAY...H85 TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO RUN SOME 15 TO 20C
COOLER THAN THAT TO BE OBSERVED ON TUESDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ARE BECOMING LESS CERTAIN MID WEEK AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO TREND
SOUTH. THE CONSENSUS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A SPLIT
PATTERN WHICH WOULD FAVOR A DRY FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE CWA AS THE
SYSTEM MEANDERS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. THE EXTENDED PROCEDURE
GENERALLY CUT BACK POPS ON WEDNESDAY...WHICH LOOKS PLAUSIBLE AT THIS
POINT IN TIME...THUS NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE. OTHERWISE WITH A
SPLIT FLOW REGIME THAT TRANSITIONS TO GENERAL RIDGING ALOFT BY WEEKS
END...A DRY FORECAST WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES APPEAR REASONABLE AT THIS POINT IN TIME FOR THE
EXTENDED.

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST
/5 PM MST/ THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094.

AVIATION...MASEK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS NORTH PLATTE NE

540 AM CST SUN MAR 4 2012

.UPDATE...

.AVIATION...
VFR IS GENERALLY EXPECTED ALL AREAS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS IN ISOLD SHRA/SHSN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 00Z
TODAY AS A WARM FRONT MOVES EAST THROUGH NCNTL NEB AND IS REPLACED
BY A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH LATER THIS MORNING.

WINDS TODAY INCREASE TO 33030G45KT IN MANY AREAS AS A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS WRN ND THIS MORNING DIVES SOUTH THROUGH THE
MISSOURI RIVER BASIN THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WINDS SUBSIDE BY 01Z THIS
EVENING.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 AM CST SUN MAR 4 2012/

DISCUSSION...

AVIATION...

VFR IS GENERALLY EXPECTED ALL AREAS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS IN ISOLD SHRA/SHSN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 00Z
TODAY AS A WARM FRONT MOVES EAST THROUGH NCNTL NEB AND IS REPLACED
BY A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH LATER THIS MORNING.

WINDS TODAY INCREASE TO 33030G45 IN MANY AREAS AS A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS WRN ND THIS MORNING DIVES SOUTH THROUGH THE
MISSOURI RIVER BASIN THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WINDS SUBSIDE BY 01Z THIS
EVENING.

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NEZ004-022-023-
035-056>058-069-094.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ005>010-024>029-036>038-059-070-071.

SHORT TERM/EXTENDED...JACOBS
AVIATION...CDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTH PLATTE NE

349 AM CST SUN MAR 4 2012

.DISCUSSION...

.AVIATION...

VFR IS GENERALLY EXPECTED ALL AREAS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS IN ISOLD SHRA/SHSN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 00Z
TODAY AS A WARM FRONT MOVES EAST THROUGH NCNTL NEB AND IS REPLACED
BY A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH LATER THIS MORNING.

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR NEZ004-022-023-035-056>058-069-094.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM CST /7 AM MST/ THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST
/5 PM MST/ THIS EVENING FOR NEZ005>010-024>029-036>038-059-070-
071.

SHORT TERM/EXTENDED...JACOBS
AVIATION...CDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BUFFALO NY

1250 PM EST SUN MAR 4 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
THE LAKES AS TEMPERATURES DROP TO BELOW AVERAGE. SNOW SHOWERS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW LINGERING
SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES INTO MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO
MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE
NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF A
COLD FRONT.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THROUGH 1120 AM...RADAR SHOWS SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO...CONTINUING TO PUSH SOUTHWARD. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS A
MOISTURE TIE IN BACK TO LAKE HURON...WITH MOISTURE BEING FUNNELED
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. BECAUSE IT IS THE FRONT PROVIDING THE
FOCUS...FEEL THE HRRR AND OTHER HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS SUCH AS
THE NAM/RGEM SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE THE PROGRESSION OF THIS
BAND. ALL THESE MODELS DROP THIS FRONT (AND ASSOCIATED QPF)
SOUTHWARD TODAY. EXPECT THIS BAND TO WEAKEN A BIT AS IT DROPS
SOUTHWARD ACROSS BUFFALO METRO...BUT STILL SHOULD BRING SOME SNOW
SHOWERS TO THE CITY.

THE BIGGER CONCERN WITH THIS...IS THAT ONCE EXTRA MOISTURE REACHES
THE TYPICALLY FAVORABLE SNOW BELTS OFF LAKE ERIE...THAT SNOW RATES
WILL BE ENHANCED THERE. AS MOISTURE WITH THE FRONT REACHES THESE
LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT SNOWFALL RATES TO INCREASE...WITH
A POTENTIAL FOR A FAIRLY QUICK 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW TO FALL THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. EXPECT STORM TOTALS TO
PUSH 8 INCHES IN THE MOST FAVORABLE LOCATIONS. NOT ALL LOCATIONS
WILL SEE THIS MUCH SNOW...WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS LIKELY TO BE
ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN ERIE...SOUTHERN WYOMING...AND NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF CATTARAUGUS COUNTY. OUTSIDE OF THESE LOCATIONS...EXPECT
LESSER AMOUNTS.

STEADY SNOW SHOWERS HAVE EXITED EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...WITH MORE
GENERIC SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE REGION. EXPECT THIS TO
CONTINUE...BUT WITH ONLY LIGHT ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH
MOST OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE ONE THING TO WATCH HERE IS FOR A
LAKE EFFECT BAND TO RE-DEVELOP IN THE NW FLOW...AND TO SET UP
ACROSS WAYNE/N CAYUGA COUNTIES LATE AFTERNOON.

OFF LAKE ERIE TONIGHT...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL MAINTAIN A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF WINDOW
THIS EVENING WHERE SOME UPSTREAM CONNECTION TRIES TO DEVELOP FROM
LAKE HURON...BUT THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL LAKES QUICKLY SHUTS OFF ANY UPSTREAM
LAKE EFFECT. EXPECT ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF 1-3 INCHES IN PERSISTENT
BANDS CENTERED ON SKI COUNTRY.

OFF LAKE ONTARIO TONIGHT...LAKE EFFECT WILL INITIALLY BE VERY
DISORGANIZED IN NORTHWEST FLOW DUE TO THE LINGERING EFFECTS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. BY MID TO LATE EVENING EXPECT A BROKEN BAND TO
CONCENTRATE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKE ACROSS WAYNE...N CAYUGA
AND FAR SOUTHERN OSWEGO COUNTIES. SOME OF THIS MAY CLIP THE
NORTHERN AND EASTERN SUBURBS OF ROCHESTER AS WELL. MAY SEE ANOTHER
2-3 INCHES LOCALLY FROM THIS OVERNIGHT.

OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT AREAS...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE
ANOTHER DUSTING OF ACCUMULATION THIS EVENING BEFORE ENDING
OVERNIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AS A POCKET OF DEEPER MOISTURE
LINGERS BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR WILL SEND
TEMPS BELOW AVERAGE TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH MOS TEMPS LOOK A LITTLE TOO
COLD GIVEN EXTENSIVE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS. EXPECT LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE MID TEENS...WITH SINGLE DIGITS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ON MONDAY...THE LAKE SNOWS EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH DUE TO BOTH DIURNAL INFLUENCES AND RIDGING
BUILDING EAST FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...WHICH WILL PROVIDE MUCH
DRIER AIR AND INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT ONLY A FEW
LEFTOVER LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND/OR FLURRIES TO BE LEFTOVER BY MONDAY
EVENING...WITH THIS ACTIVITY THEN FALLING APART COMPLETELY DURING
MONDAY NIGHT AS THE AXIS OF THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD.
ELSEWHERE...CONDITIONS WILL LARGELY BE JUST DRY AND COLD...WITH WELL
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING GIVEN THE RATHER CHILLY AIRMASS
THAT WILL BE IN PLACE AT THE LOW LEVELS. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE ONLY IN
THE LOWER TO MID 20S ON MONDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD LOWS BETWEEN 10 AND
15 THEN FOLLOWING FOR MONDAY NIGHT AS THE RIDGE AXIS CRESTS OVERHEAD
AND PROVIDES GOOD CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. THE NORTH
COUNTRY WILL BE EVEN COLDER...WITH LOWS FALLING TO AROUND ZERO OR
PERHAPS EVEN SLIGHTLY BELOW ACROSS MOST OF JEFFERSON AND LEWIS
COUNTIES.

AFTER THAT...THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST AND THEN OFFSHORE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WHILE BROAD UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST. ALL OF
THIS WILL RESULT IN A DEEPENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF PROGRESSIVELY
MILDER AIR OVERSPREADING THE AREA DURING TUESDAY...THEN CONTINUING
RIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WHILE THIS WARM ADVECTION PATTERN WILL
RESULT IN SOME MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS PASSING ACROSS THE AREA
FROM TIME TO TIME...BOTH DAYS STILL LOOK TO REMAIN DRY WITH THE BEST
LIFT AND MOISTURE REMAINING WELL TO OUR NORTH AND WEST IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A SURFACE WARM FRONT LIFTING ACROSS THE
WESTERN/CENTRAL LAKES AND INTO ONTARIO PROVINCE.

UNDER THIS WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME...925 MB TEMPS WILL STEADILY
CLIMB THROUGH MIDWEEK...EVENTUALLY REACHING THE +4C T0 +9C RANGE BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. COUPLED WITH A GOOD SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW AND AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE...THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND BACK TO MORE NORMAL LEVELS IN
THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S ON TUESDAY...BEFORE REALLY SOARING INTO THE
MID AND UPPER 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. IN FACT...
THE NORMALLY WARM SPOTS OF THE GENESEE VALLEY/FINGER LAKES MAY EVEN
REACH OR BREAK 60F ON WEDNESDAY.

THE MILD WEATHER WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS OUR
AREA...IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHING FROM THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. WHILE THIS FEATURE WILL BRING A NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AS IT PUSHES INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO
LATER IN THE NIGHT...BOTH THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF NOW SUGGEST THAT IT WILL
REMAIN JUST FAR ENOUGH TO OUR NORTH FOR OUR AREA TO REMAIN LARGELY
DRY THROUGH THE NIGHT...HENCE WILL KEEP POPS AT THE SLIGHT CHANCE OR
LOWER FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH THE 00Z GFS/GEM/ECMWF NOW IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT THAT THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY OOZE ACROSS OUR AREA THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS IT BECOMES ORIENTED INCREASINGLY PARALLEL TO
THE LARGE-SCALE UPPER LEVEL FLOW...WILL FOCUS CHANCE POPS FOR THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE ON THESE TWO PERIODS...ALONG WITH SOMEWHAT COOLER
BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ON THURSDAY GIVEN THE INCREASED AMOUNT
OF CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP.

AFTER THAT...THE VARIOUS GUIDANCE PACKAGES DIVERGE AGAIN SOMEWHAT
WITH RESPECT TO HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT DEPARTS OUR AREA TO THE
SOUTHEAST...AS WELL AS IN HOW FAST SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER/DRIER AIR
SUBSEQUENTLY OVERSPREADS OUR AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST FOLLOWING THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. ALL OF THIS APPEARS TO ULTIMATELY BE TIED TO THE
STRENGTH AND DEPTH OF THE UPPER TROUGH PASSING ACROSS ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH A FASTER/FLATTER TROUGH ALLOWING FOR
A FASTER PROGRESSION ALA THE GFS...AND A SLOWER/SLIGHTLY MORE
AMPLIFIED TROUGH RESULTING IN A SLOWER EVOLUTION MORE ALONG THE
LINES OF THE ECMWF/GEM. AT THIS DISTANT JUNCTURE...WILL JUST OPT TO
KEEP THINGS SIMPLE AND PORTRAY A GENERAL NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST
DECREASE IN CHANCE POPS ON FRIDAY FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...
THEN A RETURN TO SEASONABLY COLDER AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR SATURDAY
WITH THE COLDER AIRMASS PRESENTLY APPEARING TO BE TOO DRY TO SUPPORT
MUCH LAKE EFFECT.

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF PASSING TO THE NORTH AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DROPPING ACROSS THE REGION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH IS HELPING ENHANCE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY. FOR BUF/IAG/ROC...EXPECT THIS
SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN WITH THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH. THAT SAID...A
STRAY -SHSN CAN/T BE RULED OUT. EXPECT MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO MOVE INTO JHW LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A PERIOD OF
IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS LIKELY.

THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH TO THE SOUTH...AND THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL EXIT TO THE EAST TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD CAUSE LAKE EFFECT
ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH...BUT NOT END. MOST PERSISTENT SNOWS SHOULD
BE SE OF LAKE ONTARIO...AWAY FROM THE TAF LOCATIONS...BUT MAY HAVE
PERIODS OF MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS AT ROC/JHW OVERNIGHT. EXPECT
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ON MONDAY...OUTSIDE OF A FEW STRAY -SHSN SE OF
THE LAKES.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY...MVFR/VFR. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.

.MARINE...
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO BELOW GALE EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE STRONG
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY INTO ATLANTIC CANADA. A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES TODAY
WITH MODERATE WESTERLIES BECOMING NORTHWEST. THIS WILL MAINTAIN
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING ON BOTH LAKES
ERIE AND ONTARIO. WAVES WILL BEGIN TO COME DOWN LATER THIS EVENING
IN MOST LOCATIONS...EXCEPT AT THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF LAKE ONTARIO
FROM ABOUT ROCHESTER TO MEXICO BAY WHERE FAVORABLE FETCH WILL
MAINTAIN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY IN NORTHWEST
FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE LOWER LAKES MONDAY NIGHT
WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT.

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
NYZ012-020-085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-
041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR
LOZ043-044.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR LOZ042-045.

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BUFFALO NY

1129 AM EST SUN MAR 4 2012

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXPECT MAINLY VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS TODAY...WITH PERIODS OF IFR OR
LOWER IN SNOW SHOWERS. MOST SIGNIFICANT BAND WILL DROP SOUTHWARD
AND WEAKEN LATE MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON...TEMPORARILY IMPACTED
IAG/ROC/BUF. EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS BEHIND THIS.

THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT...PERSISTING THE
LONGEST SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES IN SOME LINGERING LAKE EFFECT. A MIX
OF VFR AND MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE WITH MVFR MORE PREVALENT ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY...MVFR/VFR. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK
MARINE...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BUFFALO NY

1026 AM EST SUN MAR 4 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND SOME LIMITED LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES AS TEMPERATURES DROP TO BELOW AVERAGE. SNOW
SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW
LINGERING SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES INTO MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO
MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE NEXT
CHANCE OF RAIN WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD
FRONT.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THROUGH 1000 AM...RADAR SHOWS SNOW SHOWERS ENHANCING JUST SOUTH OF
LAKE ONTARIO FROM NIAGARA TO MONROE COUNTIES. VISIBLE SATELLITE
SHOWS A MOISTURE TIE IN BACK TO LAKE HURON...WITH MOISTURE BEING
FUNNELED ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...THEN ENHANCING AS IT REACHED
LAKE ONTARIO. BECAUSE IT IS THE FRONT PROVIDING THE FOCUS...FEEL
THE HRRR AND OTHER HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS SUCH AS THE NAM/RGEM
SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE THE PROGRESSION OF THIS BAND. ALL THESE
MODELS DROP THIS FRONT (AND ASSOCIATED QPF) SOUTHWARD TODAY.
INTENSITY MAY VARY...BUT FOR NOW SNOW SHOWERS ARE FAIRLY INTENSE
JUST SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...WHERE A QUICK INCH OR TWO OF SNOW MAY
FALL. AFTER THIS...EXPECT THE BAND TO WEAKEN AS IT DROPS
SOUTH...BUT STILL BRING A DECENT BURST OF SNOW TO AS IT DROPS
SOUTHWARD TODAY.

MEANWHILE...SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE BOSTON HILLS AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER...THOUGHT THESE ARE LIKELY
BEING TEMPORARILY ENHANCED BY ANOTHER TIE IN OF MOISTURE FROM LAKE
HURON ALSO SHOWN ON VISIBLE SATELLITE. SNOW SHOWERS IN THESE
LOCATIONS WILL VARY IN INTENSITY...LIKELY DIMINISHING FOR A
WHILE...BUT THEN PICKING UP AGAIN AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REACHES
THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT 2 TO 3 INCHES TODAY IN THESE
TYPICALLY FAVORABLE SNOW BELTS EAST OF LAKE ERIE.

OFF LAKE ERIE TONIGHT...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL MAINTAIN A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF WINDOW
THIS EVENING WHERE SOME UPSTREAM CONNECTION TRIES TO DEVELOP FROM
LAKE HURON...BUT THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL LAKES QUICKLY SHUTS OFF ANY UPSTREAM
LAKE EFFECT. EXPECT ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF 2-3 INCHES IN PERSISTENT
BANDS CENTERED ON SKI COUNTRY.

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXPECT MAINLY VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS TODAY...WITH PERIODS OF IFR OR
LOWER IN SNOW SHOWERS. MOST SIGNIFICANT BAND WILL DROP SOUTHWARD
AND WEAKEN LATE MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON...TEMPORARILY IMPACTED
IAG/ROC/BUF. EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS BEHIND THIS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY...MVFR/VFR. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-
041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR
LOZ043-044.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR LOZ042-045.

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK
MARINE...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

920 AM CST SUN MAR 4 2012

.SHORT TERM...TODAY
920 AM CST SUN MAR 4 2012

A SURFACE AND 925 MB INVERTED TROUGH IS LOCATED ACROSS WESTERN
WISCONSIN. THIS SYSTEM EXTENDS FROM JUST EAST OF EAU CLAIRE TO
RICHLAND CENTER. WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE IS INDICATED IN THE WIND
DATA. THIS SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY PRODUCING A BAND OF LIGHT
SNOW...AND THE LATEST HRRR AND NAM/WRF SUGGEST THAT THIS SNOW WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. SNOW TOTALS WILL BE UP TO AN INCH.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
239 AM CST SUN MAR 4 2012

THE WARM AIR WILL GET PUSHED EAST OF THE AREA STARTING WEDNESDAY
AS A COLD FRONT WORKS ACROSS THE REGION. THE LATEST SET OF LONG
RANGE MODELS SHOW THE FRONT NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY THE END OF WEDNESDAY. A BAND OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
TO OCCUR ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
BE COMING THROUGH WITH A POSITIVE TILT. MOST OF THIS PRECIPITATION
WILL FALL AS RAIN UNTIL ENOUGH COLD AIR STARTS TO COME IN BEHIND
THE FRONT FOR A CHANGE OVER TO LIGHT SNOW.

.AVIATION...TODAY AND TONIGHT
548 AM CST SUN MAR 4 2012

CYCLONIC FLOW AND SURFACE TROUGH OVER WISCONSIN KEEPING MVFR TO VFR
CEILINGS ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ALONG WITH AREAS OF
SNOW THAT ARE PRODUCING MVFR RESTRICTIONS DUE TO VISIBILITIES.
ALTHOUGH EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE AT KLSE THIS MORNING...
CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES COULD LINGER UNTIL TROUGH SWINGS
THROUGH.

FURTHER WEST SURFACE RIDGE HAS PRODUCED CLEARING AREA WITH NO
IMPACTS TO AVIATION. APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH OUT OF
NORTHERN DAKOTAS WILL BRING INCREASE IN CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY BUT
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO HOLD AT LEAST THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. BULK
OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE SHOULD STAY WEST AND SOUTH OF TAF
SITES BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN HOW LOW CEILINGS WILL GET ON
NORTH EDGE AND HOW LONG THESE CLOUDS WOULD HOLD ON UNTIL THEY EXIT
MONDAY.

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
548 AM CST SUN MAR 4 2012

WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION.....SHEA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TALLAHASSEE FL

335 AM EST Tue Mar 6 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
08Z water vapor and H4 RUC analysis shows northern stream flow
carving out a significant trough over the Pacific Northwest coast
this morning. This flow then develops downstream ridging over the
high plains/Great Lakes before digging yet another trough over the
Northeastern States. Further south, flow is more zonal along the
northern Gulf coast. WV imagery shows the mid/upper levels overhead
are quite dry this morning, and this is confirmed by the 00Z KTLH
sounding which shows a dry profile throughout the troposphere and a
resulting PW of only around 0.3". The dry column and lack of any
synoptic forcing is resulting in clear skies region-wide this early
this morning.

At the surface, 1035mb high pressure centered over VA/NC extends
southwest to control the northern Gulf coast. The ridge center to
our north is providing the area with a steady NE breeze this
morning. This breeze is keeping the boundary layer mixed, and as a
result, our temps are not falling as expected in many locations. It
now appears that widespread 30s will be difficult to achieve and
will adjust temperatures up the next few hours to better blend with
the post-sunrise forecast.

.SHORT TERM (Today through Thursday)...
Today and Tonight,
Dry and seasonable weather expected across the region. Zonal mid and
upper level flow prevails along the northern Gulf coast while at the
surface a strong ridge of high pressure slides off the eastern
seaboard. Skies will be clear this morning, and then give way to a
few fair weather cu during the afternoon, as easterly flow begins to
deliver increasing low level Atlantic moisture. Decent diurnal
mixing up to around 850mb where temps are 6-7C will allow temps to
top out in the upper 60s to lower 70s this afternoon. A tight
gradient in place will prevent boundary layer de-coupling tonight
and should once again prevent temps from rapidly dropping. Went with
a MAV/MET blend for low temps which yields mid/upper 40s inland and
generally 50s along the immediate coast.

Wednesday/Wednesday Night,
Potent trough/upper low will drift eastward over the inter-mountain
west and toward the central/southern Plains. In response to these
height falls, amplified ridging/heights rises will be experienced
over the Gulf and SE states. This mid/upper level ridging will keep
our forecast dry and increasingly warm. Skies will generally remain
partly cloudy due to the influx of low level Atlantic moisture with
high temps creeping up into the low/mid 70s. Along the immediate
coast (especially Franklin/Gulf counties) temps will likely hold in
the 60s with the flow off the cooler shelf waters. Low temps Wed
Night in the 50s.

Thursday,
Upper level trough and associated surface front will reach the
mid/lower MS valley with a round of shower and storms. However, for
our region, the protective upper ridge will remain in control and
keep rain chances out the forecast. Temperatures will also continue
to rise with highs approaching 80 for many inland locations. Similar
to Wednesday, a southeast flow off the shelf waters will keep the
immediate coast cooler.

.LONG TERM (Friday through next Tuesday)...
Overall confidence in this part of the forecast will remain below
normal as we continue to see large differences in the solutions
presented by various models. Once thing that is certain is that the
00Z operational GFS run appears to be an outlier in its handling of
the energy that cuts off over the Desert SW on Thursday. The 05/12Z
Euro appears to have support from the latest NAM and also quite a
few of the GFS ensemble members in holding that energy in place for
a longer period of time than the latest GFS shows. We will try to
work the Euro solution into the forecast as much as possible and
take a look at the new 00Z Euro before putting on the finishing
touches. Overall, we favor a slower evolution in the pattern than
indicated by the GFS. We will however see the surface ridge continue
to slide slowly south and that will veer our low level winds and
bring in increasing moisture toward the end of the week. We will
stick with the recent forecasts of returning PoPs to the forecast on
Friday and keeping in at least some PoP through the weekend and on
into early next week. Temperature will be above normal through the
period with lows generally in the 50s to around 60 and highs in the
mid to upper 70s. A few spots could reach 80 on Friday, Saturday and
Sunday, especially across inland portions of the FL Big Bend.

.AVIATION (THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY).
VFR conditions will prevail across the forecast area through the TAF
period with clear skies holding into the afternoon. East winds will
be sustained around 12 knots at times from mid morning on through
the afternoon with a few higher gusts possible. Scattered SC will
move in from the east during the mid to late afternoon hours and
persist through the evening.

.MARINE...
A strong area of high pressure will move east to the Carolina coast
later today and then off the eastern seaboard Wednesday. Associated
with this area of high pressure, a tight gradient will remain in
place through the middle of the week. Easterly flow is expected to
reach advisory levels at times this morning, and then again tonight
into Wednesday morning. Moderate east to southeast flow will
continue through Thursday ahead of an approaching frontal system.

.FIRE WEATHER...
Red flag conditions are once again forecast for today across most of
our FL zones due to a combination of RH below 35 percent and
dispersion indices above 75. The RH forecast has come up across the
eastern FL Big Bend zones, but it is very close to 35 percent and
dispersion indices are higher there. Feel more comfortable leaving
the warning in place for these borderline conditions considering the
dispersion numbers. An increase in RH will preclude red flag
conditions from being reached for the remainder of the week after
today and then on through the weekend.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 71 48 75 51 79 / 0 0 0 0 10
Panama City 69 53 71 57 74 / 0 0 0 0 10
Dothan 69 49 73 53 78 / 0 0 0 0 10
Albany 68 47 72 52 78 / 0 0 10 0 10
Valdosta 68 48 73 52 80 / 0 0 10 0 10
Cross City 73 49 77 53 81 / 0 0 0 0 10
Apalachicola 66 53 68 58 71 / 0 0 0 0 10

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
GA...None.
FL...Red Flag Warning from Noon EST /11 AM CST/ today to 6 PM EST /5
PM CST/ this evening for Calhoun-Central Walton-Coastal Bay-
Coastal Dixie-Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Taylor-Coastal
Wakulla-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland Dixie-Inland
Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson-Inland Taylor-Inland
Wakulla-Inland Walton-Jackson-Lafayette-Leon-Liberty-
Madison-South Walton-Washington.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Wednesday for Coastal
waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL out to 20
NM-Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60
NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.

Synopsis/Short term/Marine...Mroczka
Long Term/Aviation/Fire Wx...Wool

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

1010 PM MST MON MAR 5 2012

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 922 PM MST MON MAR 5 2012

TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...CIRRUS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING AND DEVELOPING UPPER LOW THAT BY 12Z WEDNESDAY WILL BE
NEAR SOUTHWEST UTAH.

HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY MID 70S TO LOW 80S PER GFS/NAM/UKMET 850
TEMPS WHICH ARE 2-5 DEGREES F WARMER THAN THIS AFTERNOONS
OBSERVED 850 TEMPS. RECORDS IN MCCOOK AND COLBY SHOULD BE TIED OR
BROKEN. WINDS WILL BECOME S/SW AND INCREASE INTO THE BREEZY TO
WINDY CATEGORY TUESDAY AFTERNOON DECREASING AFTER DARK.

RH VALUES TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE 10 PERCENT
RANGE...POSSIBLY LOWER IN SPOTS. RED FLAG WARNING WAS ISSUED
EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON.

COLD FRONT TO MOVE IN BEFORE SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING BRINGING
MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 515 PM MST MON MAR 5 2012

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 214 PM MST MON MAR 5 2012

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 PM MST MON MAR 5 2012

WITH A SHORT WAVE RIDGE MOVING OVER THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE
UPPER LOW LIFTING THROUGH...HAVE KEPT THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK
DRY WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1004 PM MST MON MAR 5 2012

VFR CONDITIONS FOR BOTH KGLD AND KMCK. WEST WINDS AROUND 11KTS AT
PRESENT TIME WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE INTO
THE 15-20G30KT RANGE BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...DECREASING SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET JUST A
FEW CIRRUS CLOUDS EXPECTED...MAINLY TOWARD TUESDAY MORNING.

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 515 PM MST MON MAR 5 2012

RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE TRI-STATE AREA. RH
VALUES AS LOW AS 8 PERCENT AND SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 35 MPH WILL
PRODUCE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ252>254.

KS...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM MST /11 AM CST/ TO 7 PM MST /8 PM
CST/ TUESDAY FOR KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.

NE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM MST /11 AM CST/ TO 7 PM MST /8 PM
CST/ TUESDAY FOR NEZ079>081.

UPDATE...007
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM....LOCKHART
AVIATION...007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

930 PM MST MON MAR 5 2012

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 922 PM MST MON MAR 5 2012

RH VALUES TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE 10 PERCENT
RANGE...POSSIBLY LOWER IN SPOTS. RED FLAG WARNING WAS ISSUED
EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON.

COLD FRONT TO MOVE IN BEFORE SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING BRINGING
MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 515 PM MST MON MAR 5 2012

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 214 PM MST MON MAR 5 2012

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 PM MST MON MAR 5 2012

WITH A SHORT WAVE RIDGE MOVING OVER THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE
UPPER LOW LIFTING THROUGH...HAVE KEPT THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK
DRY WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 515 PM MST MON MAR 5 2012

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 515 PM MST MON MAR 5 2012

RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE TRI-STATE AREA. RH
VALUES AS LOW AS 8 PERCENT AND SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 35 MPH WILL
PRODUCE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ252>254.

KS...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM MST /11 AM CST/ TO 7 PM MST /8 PM
CST/ TUESDAY FOR KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.

NE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM MST /11 AM CST/ TO 7 PM MST /8 PM
CST/ TUESDAY FOR NEZ079>081.

UPDATE...007
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM....LOCKHART
AVIATION...007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS TALLAHASSEE FL

615 AM EST Tue Mar 6 2012

.UPDATE...Aviation section.

.AVIATION (THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY).
VFR conditions are forecast prevail across the area through the TAF
period with clear skies holding into the afternoon. East winds will
be sustained around 12 knots at times from mid morning on through
the afternoon with a few higher gusts possible. Scattered stratocu
will move in from the east during the mid to late afternoon hours
and persist through the evening. There is a small chance that MVFR
ceilings will work into the VLD area late tonight, but confidence
was too low to place in the forecast at this time.

Synopsis/Short term/Marine...Mroczka
Long Term/Aviation/Fire Wx...Wool

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL

652 AM CST TUE MAR 6 2012

.UPDATE...
12Z DVN RAOB SHOWS IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL INVERSION... WHICH WHEN
MIXED OUT YIELDS TEMPS AROUND 70 DEGS. NO REASON WITH REMAINING
SNOW COVER TO QUICKLY ERODE TO THINK THIS WON/T OCCUR... AND SENT
UPDATE TO NUDGE UP TEMPS ALL AREAS WITH WIDESPREAD 60S WITH L70S
SOUTH. THIS ALSO DEPICTED WELL IN 2M TEMP FCST OF HRRR IN LAST
SEVERAL RUNS. COULD END UP BEING WITHIN A FEW DEGS OF RECORDS AT
SOME SITES MAINLY SOUTH. THE RECORDS FOR TDY ARE AS FOLLOWS...
BRL (72 IN 2005 AND PREVIOUS YRS)... MLI (73 IN 2005) CID (73 IN
2005) AND DBQ (69 IN 2000).

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 548 AM CST TUE MAR 6 2012/

AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. TIGHTENING MSLP
GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE EMERGING INTO THE PLAINS AND
DEPARTING HIGH WILL RESULT IN WINDY CONDITIONS WITH SOUTH WINDS
20-30 KTS AND GUSTY BY LATE AM THROUGH AFTN. STRONG INVERSION
EARLY THIS AM WILL LEAD TO LLWS POTENTIAL UNTIL MID AM WITH 12Z
KDVN RAOB SHOWING 54 KTS FROM 210 DEGS AT 2000 FT AGL. WINDS TO
REMAIN GUSTY FROM SOUTH AT 10-20 KTS TNGT. MAY SEE SOME STRATUS
DEVELOP AND/OR MOVE INTO EASTERN IA LATE TNGT AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AXIS BEGINS TO MAKE INROADS AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. KEPT CIGS IN VFR CAT THOUGH CAN/T RULE OUT SOME MVFR CIGS
BUT CONFIDENCE ON LOWER CIGS IS LOW GIVEN THAT MODELS VERIFYING
TOO MOIST AND OVERDONE WITH NWD EXTENT OF BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
EARLY THIS AM.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 AM CST TUE MAR 6 2012/

SYNOPSIS...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS PLACES MAIN LOW OVER MT WITH SECONDARY LOWS
OVER NW ND AND CENTRAL SD. WARM FRONT EXTENDS SE FROM THE
LOWS THROUGH SW IA AND NORTHEAST MO. GUSTY SE WINDS WITH
INCREASING MSLP GRADIENT COUPLED WITH LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
RESULTING IN NEAR STEADY TEMPS. BUT WARM FRONT ON THE MARCH
NWD WITH KIRKSVILLE MO HAVING GONE FROM 34 TO 48 DEGS BETWEEN
06Z- 08Z. FLOW PATTERN ALOFT HAS TEMPORARILY FLATTENED AND IS
NEARLY ZONAL BUT IN PROCESS OF BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY AS SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DIVES TOWARD GREAT BASIN.

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
MAIN CONCERNS ARE WITH WINDS AND TEMPS. SFC COLD FRONT TO EMERGE
INTO THE PLAINS TDY AND MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON LAYING OUT
THE FRONT FROM NEAR THE ARROWHEAD OF MN THROUGH NW IA BY 12Z WED.
THUS CWA WILL RESIDE IN THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR ENVIRONMENT
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM
CONDITIONS WITH E/SE WINDS SHIFTING TO SOUTH AND BECOMING QUITE
BREEZY TO WINDY AT TIMES WITH STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE
INITIAL CHALLENGE IS WHETHER HEADLINES FOR WIND NECESSARY. THERE
ARE SOME BIG DIFFERENCES IN MIXING HEIGHTS BETWEEN NAM AND GFS
WITH BIG IMPLICATIONS TO TEMPS AND WINDS. THE DIFFERENCES MOST
LIKELY DUE TO MODELED SNOW COVER WITH 00Z NAM MODELING
WIDESPREAD 1.5 TO 2 INCHES BASICALLY NORTH OF HWY 34. CLOSE
LOOK AT LATE DAY SATL IMAGE FROM YSTDY SHOWED MAIN BATCH OF SNOW
COVER OF 1-2 INCHES IN AREA BOUNDED BY KAWG-KDBQ-KVTI. TEMPS HAVE
BEEN JUST ABOVE FREEZING THIS REGION MOST OF NIGHT THUS SOME
CONTINUED MELT. BOTTOM LINE... DISCARDING NAM SOLUTION AND SIDING
WITH DEEPER MIXED GFS. GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS AND MSLP GRADIENT
SUPPORT WINDS GENERALLY 20-30 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS. COULD
SEE A COUPLE SITES REACH LOW END ADVISORY CRITERIA MAINLY ON
SUSTAINED WINDS AOA 30 MPH... WHICH WAS OBSERVED YSTDY IN THE
PLAINS... BUT DOESN/T LOOK WIDESPREAD ENOUGH AND MARGINAL ATTIM TO
PRECLUDE ANY HEADLINES FOR WIND. GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RH VALUES
MAY INCREASE FIRE DANGER FOR DRY GRASS FUELS ELEVATED ABOVE THE
MELTING SNOW AND CONTINUE MENTION IN HWO AND GRAPHICAL WX STORY.
AS FOR HIGHS... GOING FCST LOOKS GOOD BASED OFF GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS
AND PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESS AND VERIFICATION FROM YSTDY IN THE
PLAINS. EXPECT WIDESPREAD 60S... WITH COUPLE SITES POSSIBLY
NEAR 70 DEGS FAR SOUTH AND FEW 50S FAR N/NE. TNGT... UNSEASONABLY
MILD WITH SOUTH WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH AND INCREASE IN CLOUDS
SUPPORTING GOING ABOVE GUIDANCE ON MINS. SOME SUGGESTIONS OF MORE
WIDESPREAD 50S AND POSSIBLY NEEDING TO RAISE COUPLE MORE DEGS BUT
CONTINUE WITH GENERALLY U40S TO L50S. ..05..

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...
PRIMARY FOCUS IS ON RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WED...AND
ESPECIALLY WED NIGHT WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. STILL A LARGE
DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE NEXT POTENTIAL SYSTEM LATE IN THE
WEEKEND.

WEDNESDAY CERTAINLY LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER WINDY AND WARM DAY. THE
AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN IS LIKELY OVERDONE IN THE
MODELS...BASED ON RECENT MODEL PERFORMANCE AND REAL TIME
VERIFICATION. THUS...SIMILAR TO THE THOUGHTS IN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS WILL BE LIMITED IN THE
EAST...BUT MORE LIKELY IN THE WEST IN THE AFTERNOON AS ISENTROPIC
LIFT DEVELOPS AND CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS LOWER. EVEN WITHOUT
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS...INCREASING HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT
IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIMITED INSOLATION. THE PREFRONTAL
AIRMASS WILL EASILY SUPPORT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER
60S...WHICH COULD POTENTIALLY BE EVEN WARMER IF CLOUD COVER IS THIN.
ALL OPERATIONAL MODELS...EXCEPT THE OUTLIER FASTER ECMWF...KEEP THE
COLD FRONT NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAYTIME. SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD BE AT LEAST IN THE RANGE OF 20 TO 30 MPH
RANGE IN THE EAST...AND 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE IN THE WEST CLOSER TO THE
APPROACHING FRONT. MODELS CONTINUE TO PORTRAY A WARM AND DRY LAYER
AROUND 700 MB ABOVE THE MOISTENING LOW LEVELS...THAT SHOULD LIMIT
THE DEPTH OF ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS AS LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
STEEPEN. HAVE THUS LIMITED THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE WEST IN THE LATE AFTERNOON...WHERE 700 MB TEMPERATURES BEGIN
TO COOL.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WILL CONTINUE CATEGORICAL POPS FOR RAIN AS THE
COLD FRONT DRIVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. GULF MOISTURE
CONVERGING ON THIS BOUNDARY IS SHOWN DRIVING PW VALUES TO AROUND 1
INCH BY 06Z OVER THE FORECAST AREA...AND HIGHER TRENDING ECMWF AND
GEM MODEL QPF LOOKS REASONABLE WITH WIDESPREAD HALF INCH EVENT
TOTALS. THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF NEGATIVE THETAE LAPSE RATES OVER
ESPECIALLY THE SOUTH IN THE EVENING AND HAVE KEPT ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM WORDING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A
POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIPITATION OR PERHAPS LIGHT
SNOW ALONG THE BACK EDGE OF THE SYSTEM AS IT WINDS DOWN IN THE NW
LATE. HAVE CONTINUED THIS TREND IN THE FORECAST BUT DO NOT
ANTICIPATE ANY ACCUMULATIONS. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT EXITING THE SOUTHEAST BY SUNRISE...WITH
SUNRISE MINS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 40S
SOUTHEAST.

SOME POST FRONTAL LIGHT RAIN MAY BE LINGERING IN THE SOUTH THU
MORNING. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA SHOULD
PROVIDE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DAYTIME TEMPERATURES RETURNING CLOSER
TO MARCH NORMALS IN THE 40S BOTH THU AND FRI.

A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW SHOULD MODERATE TEMPERATURES BACK
INTO THE 50S SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. OVERALL...MODELS CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW OVER THE SW U.S. LIFTING NORTHEAST
TO BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE GFS CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT THE POOREST RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY...AND
ALSO TRENDS FASTER AND MORE SOUTHEASTERLY WITH THE TRACK OF THIS
FEATURE. WHILE CONFIDENCE IN ANY GIVEN SOLUTION IS LOW...TRENDS AND
CONSENSUS SUPPORT CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...THEN SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCES INTO MONDAY. ..SHEETS..

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED

NWS DODGE CITY KS

500 AM CST TUE MAR 6 2012

...UPDATE TO AVIATION FOR 12Z TAFS...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST TUE MAR 6 2012

SYNOPSIS:
WATER VAPOR LOOP AND LAST NIGHT`S RAOB ANALYSIS CONFIRMED THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST REGION. 12-HR 500MB HEIGHT FALLS OF 130-170 METERS WERE
OBSERVED OVER WESTERN OREGON AND WASHINGTON. THE BASE OF THIS
TROUGH WAS CONTINUING TO DIG SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AS
OF 09Z THIS MORNING. STRONG WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW WAS
OCCURRING EAST OF THIS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN REGION INTO THE
ROCKIES. THIS WAS RESULTING IN A LARGE AREA OF LOWER TROPOSPHERIC
WARMING WITH LOWER ELEVATION STATIONS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN/ROCKIES
SEEING 850MB TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS. 700MB TEMPERATURES
WERE +4 TO +5C ACROSS ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO. THE FRONT SEPARATING
THE COLD, POLAR AIRMASS FROM THE WARM INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AIRMASS WAS
POSITIONED FROM SOUTHWESTERN ALBERTA...EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
CANADA-US BORDER TO A WEAK CYCLONIC CENTER AT 850MB NEAR THE
MANITOBA BORDER WITH MINNESOTA AND NORTH DAKOTA. STRONG SOUTHERLY
FLOW WAS NOTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BETWEEN THE LEE-SIDE TROUGH
AND A GULF OF MEXICO HIGH.

TODAY:
THE VERY WARM AND DRY LOWER TROPOSPHERIC DOWNSLOPE AIRMASS WILL
YIELD ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. GIVEN
THE RESULTS OF YESTERDAY AND AN EVEN WARMER THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT TODAY...THERE IS MUCH MORE CONFIDENCE IN HIGHS TODAY
REACHING 80 DEGREES OVER A GOOD CHUNK OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS...AND HAVE
INCREASED THE MAXT GRID AS A RESULT. THE HRRR AND RUC MODELS WERE
USED AS THE PRIMARY GUIDANCE IN THE DEWPOINT/RH FORECAST FOR FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS. DEWPOINTS WILL BE VERY LOW ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN 2/3RDS OF THE FORECAST AREA...IN THE 14 TO 20F
RANGE...AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S/NEAR 80. THIS WILL
RESULT IN RELATIVE HUMIDITY DOWN INTO THE 10 TO 15 PERCENT RANGE.
THE MAIN QUESTION REGARDING SIGNIFICANCE OF THE CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER THREAT WILL BE WIND SPEED. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE
TRENDED DOWNWARD IN THE WIND SPEED ACROSS THE VERY LOW RH AREAS FOR
THIS AFTERNOON...AND IT APPEARS THAT WIND SPEEDS WILL NOW BE RATHER
MARGINAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WX. THE LATEST FORECAST WILL REFLECT 15
TO 20 MPH WINDS FOR MOST OF THE DAY...WITH 20 TO 25 MPH FOR ONLY A
COUPLE HOURS PROBABLY BY LATE AFTERNOON. GUSTS ARE STILL
ANTICIPATED TO BE 25 TO 30 MPH. FARTHER EAST WHERE THE MSLP
GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHTER...WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY STRONG AND APPROACH
WIND ADVISORY CATEGORY. HAVE DECIDED TO NOT ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY
IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS COUNTIES GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN DEEP
MIXING...BUT THE REALLY DEEP MIXING MAY NOT REALLY MATTER MUCH AND
WIND ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS (SUSTAINED 30 MPH) MAY STILL BE REACHED
ACROSS PRATT-COMANCHE-BARBER COUNTIES.

TONIGHT:
AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTHEAST LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT...THE FRONT (MENTIONED IN THE SYNOPSIS PARAGRAPH) WILL BEGIN
ITS EQUATORWARD PUSH. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH FAR NORTHWEST
KANSAS AROUND 09Z TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN SOUTHWEST
KANSAS...WIND SPEEDS WILL STAY FAIRLY STRONG BY NOCTURNAL STANDARDS
WITH SPEEDS AVERAGING 20 TO 30 MPH THROUGH MOST OF THE
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABNORMALLY WARM THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH 06-12Z
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 50S FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES WITH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE
UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 (PARTICULARLY ACROSS BARBER COUNTY). THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LOW STRATUS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED...BUT AT THIS
TIME THE MAJORITY OF INITIAL LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER TOWARD DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY WILL BE ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND AREAS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
JUST EAST OF BARBER COUNTY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST TUE MAR 6 2012

THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS 12Z WEDNESDAY. LOTS OF WEATHER TO
CONSIDER, HOWEVER, THIS AFD SECTION WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABBREVIATED DUE
TO MOST OF THE TIME WAS SPENT ON THE GRIDS MAKING NUMEROUS
MODIFICATIONS. OVERALL, THE EXTENDED PERIOD RELIED HEAVILY ON THE
00Z ECMWF FOR THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND USED 00Z NAM FOR
THERMODYNAMICS. THE 00Z GFS WAS COMPLETELY DISMISSED AS IT IS A
CLEAR OUTLIER COMPARED TO THE ECMWF/NAM/GEM/UKMET.

WEDNESDAY:

ON WEDNESDAY, A SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT WILL BE TRAVERSING ACROSS THE
REGION. HAVE ADOPTED A NON DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE WITH A FIRST
GUESS FROM THE NAM AS PEAK HEATING WILL OCCUR NEAR THE NORMAL
AFTERNOON HOURS TOWARDS MEDICINE LODGE, HOWEVER AT SCOTT CITY TO
HAYS, MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE REACHED EARLY AND THEN FALL LIKE A
ROCK AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

MOST OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY, EXCEPT ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT COULD
PROVIDE THIS REGION WITH DRIZZLE. BY WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY
MORNING, A VORTMAX WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION WITH SIGNIFICANT
HEIGHT FALLS AND RELATED AGEOSTROPHIC MOTIONS (DYNAMIC LIFT)
SPREADING ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THIS DYNAMIC PROCESS WILL BE
ENOUGH TO CAUSE RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS. ECMWF CAPE IS NOT PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE, HOWEVER, MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTINUE TO STEEPEN SO THINK THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE PORTION OF THE ATMOSPHERE TO
PRODUCE SOME LIGHTNING. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED AS ANY
CONVECTION WILL LIKE PEAK OVERNIGHT WITH SURFACE BASE INSTABILITY IS
AT A MINIMUM. PLUS, THE CONVECTION WILL BE ELEVATED. PERHAPS SOME
MARGINAL HAIL COULD OCCUR AT MEDICINE LODGE GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED
STEEP LAPSE RATES BUT IT IS TOO EARLY TO TELL.

MEANWHILE, THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY,
SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE OCCURRING ON THE BACKSIDE OF
OF 850-700 HPA TROUGH. RIGHT NOW, I HAVE EMPLOYED THE PROBABILITY OF
WEATHER TYPE TOOL FROM THE ESTF SMART TOOL REPOSITORY AND HAVE USED
THE NAM FOR A THERMODYNAMIC BACKGROUND. WOULD PREFER NOT TO USE
THIS MESOSCALE MODEL AT THIS TIME RANGE, HOWEVER, THE ECMWF HAS LOW
RESOLUTION IN THE VERTICAL AND CANNOT BE USED TO DETERMINE
PRECIPITATION TYPE. THE POWT ACTUALLY PRODUCED FAIRLY REASONABLE
LOOKING PRECIPITATION TYPE GRIDS AND I PARTICULARLY LIKE THE
TRANSITION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE WILL BE A ZONE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA WHERE THE TOP DOWN METHOD AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW THAT FREEZING RAIN COULD BE HAPPEN. RIGHT NOW, I WAS
CONSERVATIVE ON ICE ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS BUT IF THIS ZR AREA WERE TO
EXPAND WITH ELEVATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION ON TOP OF A SHALLOW COLD AIR
MASS...TREACHEROUS COMMUTING CONDITIONS WILL CERTAINLY BE A
POSSIBILITY. IT IS TOO EARLY TO MENTION A WINTER STORM WATCH, BUT AN
ICE STORM WARNING CANNOT BE COMPLETELY DISMISSED AT THIS POINT BASED
OFF 00Z DATA THAT WAS ANALYZED.

THURSDAY:

FOR THURSDAY, THE COUNTY WARNING AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN THE
TRANSITION ZONE FOR PRECIPITATION TYPES. SNOW LOOKS LIKELY ACROSS MY
NORTHWEST COUNTIES WHERE RAIN LOOKS LIKELY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS. THE ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGH
THE 850-700 HPA LAYER COMPARED TO THE NAM WHICH WANTS TO KEEP THE
WARM NOSE LINGERING AROUND, PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS. AS MENTIONED BEFORE, WENT AHEAD AND USED THE NAM THERMO
FIELDS FOR PRECIPITATION TYPES ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF COULD BE MORE
CORRECT IN CONTINUING TO DRIVE THE COLD AIR SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
DAY. ALL THESE DETAILS WILL BE HAMMERED OUT AS THE EVENT APPROACHES.

FRIDAY AND BEYOND:

DUE TO TIME CONSTRAINTS, DID NOT DEVIATE FROM THE ALLBLEND APPROACH.
THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN WHAT WILL HAPPEN WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL WAVE. THE ECMWF/GEM KEEPS THE WAVE CLOSER TO OUR AREA WHICH
WOULD PROVIDE THE REGION WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS.
THE GFS IS VERY PROGRESSIVE BUT AS MENTIONED ABOVE WAS DISCOUNTED.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 456 AM CST TUE MAR 6 2012

VFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOME HIGH LEVEL
CIRRIFORM CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TODAY SPREADING IN DOWNSTREAM OF
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LOCATED ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
OTHERWISE, BREEZY S/SW WINDS AROUND 20 KT ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH ADIABATIC MIXING
AND LEE TROUGHING.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 80 47 66 27 / 0 10 30 60
GCK 80 44 55 27 / 0 10 20 60
EHA 81 44 59 24 / 0 0 20 60
LBL 81 46 65 27 / 0 10 20 60
HYS 79 47 55 27 / 0 10 40 60
P28 75 52 69 34 / 0 20 70 80

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON CST /11 AM MST/ TODAY TO 7 PM CST /6
PM MST/ THIS EVENING FOR KSZ030-031-043>046-061>065-074>078-
084>087.

SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM....SUGDEN
AVIATION...SUGDEN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DODGE CITY KS

404 AM CST TUE MAR 6 2012

...UPDATED SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM SECTIONS...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST TUE MAR 6 2012

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST TUE MAR 6 2012

WEDNESDAY:

MOST OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY, EXPECT ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT COULD
PROVIDE THIS REGION WITH DRIZZLE. BY WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY
MORNING, A VORTMAX WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION WITH SIGNIFICANT
HEIGHT FALLS AND RELATED AGEOSTROPHIC MOTIONS (DYNAMIC LIFT)
SPREADING ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THIS DYNAMIC PROCESS WILL BE
ENOUGH TO CAUSE RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS. ECMWF CAPE IS NOT PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE, HOWEVER, MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTINUE TO STEEPEN SO THINK THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE PORTION OF THE ATMOSPHERE TO
PRODUCE SOME LIGHTNING. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED AS ANY
CONVECTION WILL LIKE PEAK OVERNIGHT WITH SURFACE BASE INSTABILITY IS
AT A MINIMUM. PLUS, THE CONVECTION WILL BE ELEVATED. PERHAPS SOME
MARGINAL HAIL COULD OCCUR AT MEDICINE LODGE GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED
STEEP LAPSE RATES BUT IT IS TOO EARLY TO TELL.

THURSDAY:

FRIDAY AND BEYOND:

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CST MON MAR 5 2012

LEE TROUGHING WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL STORM
SYSTEM DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. WINDS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AT 20 TO 25 KTS BY 18-20Z. BY 03Z,
A 65KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP AT DDC/GCK/HYS. LOW-LEVEL WIND
SHEAR COULD BE A CONCERN, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE IN THE 06Z TAF.

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON CST /11 AM MST/ TODAY TO 7 PM CST /6
PM MST/ THIS EVENING FOR KSZ030-031-043>046-061>065-074>078-
084>087.

SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM....SUGDEN
AVIATION...FINCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GLASGOW MT

404 AM MST TUE MAR 6 2012

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
UPPER SPLITTING TROUGH IS MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND AS
MODELS HAVE BEEN SAYING OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL SPLIT WITH MOST OF THE ENERGY FOLLOWING THE SOUTHERN
PART BECOMING A CLOSED CUT OFF SYSTEM OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA.
THE NORTHERN PART HAS ALREADY COLLECTED THE QUASI STATIONARY FRONT
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND WILL PUSH IT SOUTH AND EAST INTO EASTERN
MONTANA AS WE GO THROUGH THE DAY. IT LOOKS LIKE THE REALLY BIG
DROP IN TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AS THE CONTINENTAL
POLAR AIR MASS MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. MOST HIGHS WILL OCCUR
EARLY TUESDAY WITH MODERATELY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION DROPPING
850 MB TEMPS TO AS LOW AS -13C IN OUR N BY 5 PM TUESDAY. WINDS AT
850 MB ARE AROUND 30 KNOTS BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON SO
EXPECT A MODERATE NORTHWEST WIND MAKING TEMPERATURES FEEL MUCH
COLDER AS THESE WIND MIX TO THE SURFACE.

THE ONE THING ABOUT THIS SYSTEM IS THE MODELS ARE SLIGHTLY OFF ON
PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE FRONT AND SURFACE LOW THIS MORNING. THE
LATEST 09Z RUC IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
AND THE FRONT IS MUCH FARTHER SOUTH THEN THE 00Z MODELS WERE
INDICATING. THIS IS INTERESTING SINCE THE LAST THREE CLIPPER
SYSTEMS WE HAVE HAD MOVE THROUGH WERE FARTHER SOUTH THEN THE
MODELS INDICATED. SO DECIDED TO RAISE POPS TO THE LIKELY CATEGORY
AND EVEN THOUGHT ABOUT A WINTER HIGHLIGHT BUT DECIDE AGAINST IT.
SINCE MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL BE RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT AND BEFORE
18Z AND THE SNOW WILL BE ELEVATION DEPENDENT IN THE MORNING.
ANYTHING ABOVE 3000 FT IS LIKELY TO SEE SNOWFALL WHILE EVERY
ELSE IT WILL BE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. AFTER 18Z ONCE THE COLD
AIR ADVECTION BECOMES STRONG THE WINTERY MIX WILL BECOME ALL SNOW
ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST.

ONCE THE PRECIPITATION TURNS OVER TO SNOW IT WILL NOT LAST VERY
LONG SO EXPECT ANY SNOWFALL TOTALS TO BE LESS THE 1/2 AN INCH.
A FEW OF THESE SPOTS ABOVE 3000 FT THAT WILL SEE LONGER PERIODS OF
SNOW SHOWERS WHICH MEANS SLIGHTLY MORE IN THE WAY OF
ACCUMULATION...BUT THE TOTAL WILL REMAIN BELOW 2 INCHES. THE
STRONGER WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BLOW AROUND THE FALLING SNOW
BUT THE NEW SNOWFALL SHOULD BE FAIRLY WET SO ONCE IT REACHES THE
GROUND IT IS GOING TO BE HARD TO PICK UP.

I DON`T EXPECT ANY FREEZING RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT SINCE IT
WILL START OUT AS LIGHT RAIN IN MOST AREAS IT COULD PUT ENOUGH
WATER ON THE SURFACE THAT WHEN THE FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARRIVE
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON WE WILL SEE BLACK ICE FORMING ON SURFACES.
ANOTHER THING TO BE LOOKING OUT FOR IN THE AFTERNOON.

THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST LOOKS THIS WAY. TUESDAY NIGHT
WINDS DIE OUT AND THE SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A
MODIFIED POLAR SURFACE HIGH FROM THE NORTHWEST OVER THE AREA. 850
TEMPS OF -13C WILL MEAN LOWS 5 TO 15. WEAK RIDGING AND WARMING OF
THE AIR MASS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. RSMITH

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
THE EXTENDED BEGINS WITH A POSITIVE TILT RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND NORTHEAST MONTANA. AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL
CONUS IS BLOCKING UP THE FLOW KEEPING THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE
JET OVER NORTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES. THIS IS WELL AGREED UPON BY
THE 00Z MODEL SUITE. THE MODELS THEN DIFFER GREATLY ON THE
EJECTION OF THE UPPER LOW INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION... HOWEVER
FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA THE GFS AND EC EVOLVE INTO A SIMILAR PATTERN
KEEPING THE REGION DRY AND MILD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.

THEREFORE THE CONFIDENCE IN MODEL PERFORMANCE IS LOW... THE
OVERALL SOLUTION CONFIDENCE IN THE OPERATIONAL FORECAST IS HIGH.
LOOK FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 50S WITH VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. PROTON

.AVIATION...
VFR. A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN ALBERTA EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARDS NORTHEAST MONTANA. THE FRONT
SHOULD MOVE THE GLASGOW AREA AROUND 12Z AND EXIT THE EASTERN AREAS
BY 16Z. PRE-FRONTAL LOOK FOR AREAS OF RAIN SHOWERS AND LOW VFR
CONDITIONS. POST FRONTAL MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS AND SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS MAY DROP FLIGHT LEVELS TO MVFR BRIEFLY. EXPECT VFR TO
DOMINATE ALL AREAS BY 03Z. PROTON

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL

1118 AM CST TUE MAR 6 2012

.AVIATION...
CLEAR SKIES...BUT WINDY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 16 TO 25
KTS...GUSTING TO 26 TO 33 KTS...WILL CONTINUE TO BLOW OVER IOWA
AND ILLINOIS THROUGH SUNSET THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY LESS
GUSTY...BUT STILL SUSTAINED 15 TO 20 KT WINDS OVERNIGHT. AFTER 14Z
TOMORROW...STRATUS MAY MOVE OVER ALL SITES..AND THIS COULD BE
MVFR...BUT FOR NOW...I WILL ONLY PUT DBQ AT 3000 FT...WITH OTHER
SITES AROUND 3500 FT. WINDS WILL AROUND 14 KTS SOUTHWEST
TOMORROW...GUSTING TO THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 652 AM CST TUE MAR 6 2012/

UPDATE...
12Z DVN RAOB SHOWS IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL INVERSION... WHICH WHEN
MIXED OUT YIELDS TEMPS AROUND 70 DEGS. NO REASON WITH REMAINING
SNOW COVER TO QUICKLY ERODE TO THINK THIS WON/T OCCUR... AND SENT
UPDATE TO NUDGE UP TEMPS ALL AREAS WITH WIDESPREAD 60S WITH L70S
SOUTH. THIS ALSO DEPICTED WELL IN 2M TEMP FCST OF HRRR IN LAST
SEVERAL RUNS. COULD END UP BEING WITHIN A FEW DEGS OF RECORDS AT
SOME SITES MAINLY SOUTH. THE RECORDS FOR TDY ARE AS FOLLOWS...
BRL (72 IN 2005 AND PREVIOUS YRS)... MLI (73 IN 2005) CID (73 IN
2005) AND DBQ (69 IN 2000).

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 AM CST TUE MAR 6 2012/

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

..ERVIN..

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DODGE CITY KS

236 PM CST TUE MAR 6 2012

...UPDATED LONG TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST TUE MAR 6 2012

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CST TUE MAR 6 2012

WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT IMPROVES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
AND MUCH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS COLDER AIR NEAR THE
SURFACE RETURNS BEHIND A COLD FRONT. MODEL SOUNDINGS ACROSS
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS INDICATING A FAIRLY DEEP LAYER OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DEVELOPING BY 12Z THURSDAY...HOWEVER LITTLE
MOISTURE IS PRESENT IN THE ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH ZONE. THIS WOULD
SUPPORT MORE DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE THAN SNOW SO THE MAIN QUESTION
WILL BE THE TEMPERATURES NEAR THE SURFACE AS THIS PRECIPITATION
FALLS. AT THIS TIME THE NAM WAS COLDER THAN ALL THE MODELS NEAR THE
SURFACE AND THE 2 METER TEMPERATURE BETWEEN 18Z THURSDAY AND 00Z
FRIDAY SUGGESTED AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 32 DEGREES
FOR MUCH OF WESTERN KANSAS. AM CURRENTLY LEANING TOWARDS THESE
COLDER TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AFTERNOON BASED ON EXPECTED CLOUD
COVER, POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION AND COLD AIR ADVECTION ADVERTISED BY
ALL THE MODELS ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. BASED ON THESE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY THERE APPEARS TO BE
CHANCE FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD LIGHT/VERY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE
ACROSS POTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS DURING THE DAY. CURRENTLY IT
APPEARS THAT PRECIPITATION DURING THIS FREEZING DRIZZLE TIME FRAME
WILL BE LIGHT (LESS THAN 0.05INCHES) SO WILL NOT BE ISSUING A WATCH OR
ADVISORY. DO HOWEVER EXPECT THIS PROLONGED PERIOD OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WILL PRODUCE SOME SLICK SPOTS ON SOME ELEVATED
SURFACES.

ON FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY AN UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO WOBBLE
ACROSS NEW MEXICO AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ROTATES
AROUND THIS SYSTEM. THE ECMWF, GEM, SREF MEAN, AND GFS ALL CONTINUE
TO STRUGGLE WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THIS CUTOFF UPPER LOW AND
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH WITH WHICH ONE IS MORE CORRECT. AT THIS TIME
GIVEN THAT THE GFS AT 12Z WEDNESDAY UNDERESTIMATED THE UPPER LEVEL
JET STREAK WEST OF THIS SYSTEM AM CURRENTLY TRENDING TOWARD A SLOWER
AND FURTHER SOUTH SOLUTION WHICH THE 00Z ECMWF,12Z GEM AND MEAN SREF
INDICATED. WITH THIS IN MIND WILL HOLD ON TO THE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS MOISTURE AND WEAK LIFT PERSISTS
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AHEAD OF THIS SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM.

BY LATE THIS WEEKEND ALL THE MODELS BEGIN TO MOVE THIS SYSTEM EAST
OF WESTERN KANSAS ALLOWING A UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD INTO THE
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. MAGNITUDE AND TIMING OF THIS RIDGING STILL
UNCLEAR BUT A WARMING TREND SHOULD BEGIN EARLY NEXT WEEK. 850MB
TEMPERATURE TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT HIGHS REBOUNDING BACK INTO
THE 60S BY AS EARLY AS MONDAY.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1119 AM CST TUE MAR 6 2012

LOOK FOR STRONGER WINDS TO MIX TO THE SURFACE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30KT AND ONLY A FEW CIRRUS.
TONIGHT A LOW LEVEL JET OF 50 TO 55KTS AT H85 WILL DEVELOP WITH
SURFACE WINDS STAYING IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL SWITCH WINDS TO THE NORTH AROUND DODGE CITY BY NOON
TO 1 PM WEDNESDAY AND AROUND 9 TO 10 AM AT HAYS. WINDS WILL SHIFT
ABRUPTLY NORTH AT 20 TO 30KTS WITH THE FROPA THEN SLACKEN DURING
THE DAY.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 51 66 28 33 / 10 30 70 80
GCK 49 53 27 33 / 10 20 60 60
EHA 47 65 25 33 / 0 20 60 60
LBL 50 66 29 33 / 10 20 70 70
HYS 51 53 28 38 / 10 40 40 40
P28 55 68 35 36 / 20 70 80 80

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CST /6 PM MST/ THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ030-031-043>046-061>065-074>078-084>087.

SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM....BURGERT
AVIATION...KRUSE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DODGE CITY KS

1125 AM CST TUE MAR 6 2012

...UPDATED FOR AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST TUE MAR 6 2012

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST TUE MAR 6 2012

WEDNESDAY:

THURSDAY:

FRIDAY AND BEYOND:

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1119 AM CST TUE MAR 6 2012

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CST /6 PM MST/ THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ030-031-043>046-061>065-074>078-084>087.

SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM....SUGDEN
AVIATION...KRUSE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

406 PM EST TUE MAR 6 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 405 PM EST TUE MAR 6 2012

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A TROF MOVING INTO THE
ROCKIES WITH A BROAD DOWNSTREAM RIDGE EXPANDING FROM THE CNTRL TO
ERN CONUS. MAIN PORTION OF THIS TROF WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE NRN
CONUS/GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WHILE
ENERGY IN THE SRN PORTION OF THE TROF BREAKS OUT AND CLOSES OFF OVER
THE SW STATES. TROF WILL BRING A PERIOD OF PCPN WED THRU THU.
EVENTUALLY...THE SW LOW WILL EJECT OUT TO THE NE OVER THE
WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHAT AFFECTS THE LOW WILL HAVE OVER THE
UPPER LAKES REMAINS TO BE SEEN.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM EST TUE MAR 6 2012

IN THE SHORT TERM...CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND TEMP TRENDS...FOG
DEVELOPMENT AND THEN PCPN WED ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONT/TROF MOVING
INTO THE UPPER LAKES.

DWPTS ARE RISING INTO THE MID 30S TO LWR 40S AS FAR NE SE MN/SW WI
THIS AFTN WITH TRAJECTORIES BRINGING THAT MOISTURE INTO UPPER MI
DURING THE NIGHT AND WED MORNING. WITH THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION OVER THE SNOW COVER...STRATUS/FOG SHOULD EVENTUALLY
DEVELOP TONIGHT. DENSE FOG MAY DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY OVER UPSLOPE
HIGHER TERRAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO WED. IF THERE WAS SOME ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE FROM RAIN/DRIZZLE...WOULD GO WITH MORE OF A DENSE FOG
WORDING. FOR NOW...GOING FCST OF AN INCREASE IN LOWER CLOUDS AND FOG
DEVELOPMENT...MAINLY LATER TONIGHT...LOOKS ON TRACK. TEMPS SHOULDN`T
FALL MUCH IF AT ALL UNDER MOISTURE ADVECTION AND FAIRLY TIGHT PRES
GRADIENT/STIRRING WINDS. MINS SHOULD BE IN THE MID 30S TO LWR 40S...
WARMEST IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR.

COLD FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK TO MOVE THRU THE AREA LATER WED
AFTN/EVENING AS SFC LOW MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF ONTARIO.
EVEN WITH CLOUDS/FOG (POSSIBLY DENSE) AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WARM
START TO THE DAY SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE WELL INTO THE 40S AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WED. FCST SOUNDINGS FROM NAM/GFS INDICATE RAIN WILL BE
PTYPE. EXCEPTION WILL BE THE FAR W LATE IN THE DAY. SOUNDINGS THERE
INITIALLY SHOW COOLING WORKING IN BLO 850MB...THEN SHOW ALL OF THE
PROFILE NEAR OR BLO 0C LATE AFTN...RESULTING IN CHANGE TO SNOW...
WITH SLEET POSSIBLE AT LEAST BRIEFLY AS WELL. WITH SLOWER COOLING
NOTED BY GEM/UKMET...OPTED TO SLOW CHANGEOVER BY A FEW HRS. NOT
EXPECTING ANY SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATION WED WITH TEMPS WELL INTO THE
30S THRU LATE AFTN OVER THE W. OTHERWISE...WITH ASSISTANCE OF RIGHT
ENTRANCE OF UPPER JET...EXPECT AN AREA OF -RA TO DEVELOP
(LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS)...MOSTLY ALONG/JUST BEHIND COLD FRONT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM EST TUE MAR 6 2012

COLD FRONT WILL BE STRETCHED FROM NE TO SW ACROSS THE CNTRL/ERN CWA
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH IS STARTING TO
PUSH INTO THE UPPER GREAT LKS. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SE
INTO NRN LOWER MI DURING THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HRS. PCPN DEVELOPING
ALONG THE FRONT TOMORROW AFTN WILL LARGELY BE FOCUSED OVER THE ERN
CWA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. THIS SHOULD BE FALLING AS RAIN...DUE
TO THE ABUNDANT WAA FROM H925-800 LEADING TO TEMPS AT OR ABOVE 3C.
FARTHER W IN CNTRL AND WRN UPPER MI...LLVL COLD AIR SURGING IN
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING IN A COLD LAYER FOR THE PCPN TO FALL
INTO. THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW QUICKLY THAT COLD AIR WILL SURGE IN
BEHIND THE PCPN SHIFTING TO THE SE. MAY NOT BE ENOUGH COLD AIR TO
ALLOW SLEET TO OCCUR...BUT DID MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF IT ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE MAIN PCPN. IN ADDITION...SOME CONCERNS ON ICE
CRYSTAL PRESENCE IN THE CLOUDS ON THE BACK EDGE OF THE PCPN. EVEN AS
TEMPS START TO COOL BEHIND THE FRONT...THEY REALLY DON/T FALL MUCH
BELOW -5C UNTIL THE BULK OF THE PCPN HAS MOVED TO THE EAST. THINKING
IT WILL LARGELY BE A RAIN...THEN A QUICK PERIOD OF SLEET AND EITHER
END OR BE A SLIGHT DZ/FLURRIES.

THINK BEST CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL BE OVER THE W IN THE EVENING...AS
THE COLD AIR ALLOWS FOR LK ENHANCEMENT WITH H900-875 TEMPS FALLING
TO -8C. CLOUD DEPTH SHOULD BE LIMITED WITH THE INVERSION AROUND H850
OR 3KFT. THUS...WILL MAINLY BE FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND
LINGERED CHANCES/SLIGHTS OVER THE NW FAVORED LOCATIONS IN THE W
THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HRS. DRY LLVL AIR WILL THEN QUICKLY WORK
IN OVERNIGHT...SO HAVE DIMINISHED THE LINGERING POPS QUICKLY FROM W
TO E NEAR LK SUPERIOR.

THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR CLEARING OVER THE INTERIOR W LATE IN THE
NIGHT...WHICH COULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL BELOW GUIDANCE WITH PWAT
VALUES AROUND 55 PERCENT OF NORMAL. WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING WITH
THE APPROACHING SFC RIDGE...BUT MAY NOT ARRIVE EARLY ENOUGH TO
MAXIMIZE THE RADIATIONAL COOLING. WILL HIGHLIGHT THE COLDEST VALUES
NEAR WATERSMEET WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS.

UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH
THE DAY ON THURS...ALLOWING SFC LOW TO DEVELOP OVER SRN ONTARIO
THURS AFTN AND INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES SE ON THURS NIGHT. DRY AIR
ABOVE H850 BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE PUSHING FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE
AREA THURS MORN AHEAD OF SECONDARY TROUGH BRINGING DEEPER MOISTURE
AND COLDER AIR. THINK THIS WILL LEAD TO A PERIOD OF PARTLY CLOUDY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY OVER MUCH OF THE CWA IN THE MORNING. THEN...AS
THE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA AND BRINGS DEEPER MOISTURE AND
H850-700 Q-VECTOR CONV...HAVE INCREASED CLOUDS AND BRING
SLIGHT/CHANCES OF SNOW BACK IN THE AFTN NEAR LK SUPERIOR.

UPPER TROUGH WILL START TO PUSH E ON THURS NIGHT AND CONTINUE E ON
FRI...AS RIDGING STARTS TO MOVE OVER THE AREA AND SFC HIGH PUSHES
INTO THE WRN GREAT LKS. WITH SECONDARY COLD FRONT DROPPING SE
ACROSS LK SUPERIOR...EXPECT ADDITIONAL LLVL MOISTURE AND FALLING
H850 TEMPS TOWARDS -13C TO LEAD TO INCREASING LAKE
EFFECT/ENHANCEMENT FOR AREAS NEAR LK SUPERIOR. WITH THE STRONG NW
AND THEN NNW WINDS...EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA THURS NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO FRI MORNING. WITH THE COLD
AIR SPILLING IN...EXPECT GUSTY WINDS AS H925 WINDS TO 35KTS OVER THE
NE HALF OF THE CWA TO MIX TO THE SFC AND PRODUCE 25-35KT GUSTS NEAR
LK SUPERIOR E OF MARQUETTE. OVERALL...DON/T EXPECT TOO MUCH SNOW
ACCUM AS THE PERIOD OF FAVORABLE CONDITIONS IT FAIRLY LIMITED ON
THURS NIGHT...BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES AND LOWERING INVERSION
HEADING THROUGH THE DAY ON FRI. IN ADDITION...WITH THE INCREASING
H850 WAA ON FRI AFTN OVER THE WRN LK WILL ALSO AID TO END THE
LINGERING LES FROM W TO E THROUGH THE DAY FRI. ALL IN
ALL...THURS AND FRI LOOK TO BE A PERIOD OF NORMAL TO BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE POTENTIAL WARM-UP FOR
THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

DAYS 4 THROUGH 7 /FRI NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION ON FRI NIGHT WILL
BEGIN TO GET CAUGHT UP WITH THE FLOW AND DRIFT NNE.
MEANWHILE...NEARLY ZONAL FLOW NRN STREAM LOOKS TO BE SETUP OVER SRN
CANADA...KEEPING THE COLD AIR WELL N OF THE UPPER GREAT LKS.

12Z RUNS CONTINUE THE DIFFERENCES WITH THE TRACK OF THE
UPPER LOW. HPC PREFERS A CONSENSUS SOLN NOT INCLUDING THE
GFS...WHICH TRACKS THE LOW MUCH FASTER AND FARTHER SE. 12Z RUN IS
THE SAME AND REMAINS VERY CONSISTENT OVER THE LAST SEVERAL
RUNS...WHICH COULD LEAD SOME CREDIT TO THE THAT SOLN. ENS MEAN ON
ECMWF/GEM IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE DETERMINISTIC RUN...BUT
FOLLOWS A SIMILAR TRACK. OVERALL CONSENSUS PULLS THE UPPER LOW
THROUGH THE GREAT LKS REGION SUN INTO MON. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH SHOULD FALL AS RAIN DUE TO THE
WARM AIR ALREADY IN PLACE.

EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR A BIG WARM UP
BEHIND THE UPPER LOW THAT MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LKS. AMPLIFYING
AND NEARLY STATIONARY TROUGH OFF THE W COAST OF THE CONUS WILL LEAD
TO AMPLIFYING RIDGE OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. THIS WILL ALLOW SFC
HIGH TO BE STATIONED OVER THE ERN CONUS AND WITH THE MAIN LOWS
TRACKING WELL TO THE N THROUGH CANADA...EXPECT SRLY FLOW TO BE SETUP
OVER THE CWA. CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS GIVES VALUES IN THE 40S AND
NEAR 50 ALONG THE WI BORDER FOR HIGHS ON TUES. THIS IS USUALLY UNDER
DONE IN WELL ABOVE NORMAL SITUATIONS AND THE ECMWF /WHICH ALMOST
ALWAYS VERIFIES THE BEST IN THESE ABOVE NORMAL SITUATIONS/ HAS
VALUES ABOUT 7-10 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE CONSENSUS. THE TEMPS LOOK
TO GET EVEN WARMER HEADING INTO WED/THURS. ECMWF HAS TEMPS FOR
WED/THURS OF NEXT WEEK OVER THE W HALF IN THE 60S WITH COOLER TEMPS
NEAR LK MI WITH THE SSW FLOW. ECMWF EVEN ATTEMPTS TO TRY AN PUSH A
FEW 70S ALONG THE WI BORDER.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM EST TUE MAR 6 2012

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW INTO EARLY EVENING.
INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE OVER SNOWPACK SHOULD RESULT IN LOW
CLOUDS/FOG DEVELOPING TONIGHT...WITH BEST CHC OF LOW MVFR/POSSIBLE
IFR CIG AT KSAW DUE TO UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO SOUTHERLY WIND.
DOWNSLOPE NATURE OF SOUTHERLY WIND AT KIWD/KCMX SHOULD HELP TO
MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS AT THOSE SITES. WITH FAIRLY STRONG WINDS
ABOVE LOW-LEVEL INVERSION...EXPECT LLWS TONIGHT. IFR CIGS ARE LIKELY
TO SETTLE IN AT ALL SITES WED MORNING AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO INCREASE AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 405 PM EST TUE MAR 6 2012

SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 20-30KT OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR (LIGHTER OVER THE
W) AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TONIGHT.
WINDS SHOULD MOSTLY DROP OFF BLO 20KT FOR MUCH OF WED AS THE COLD
FRONT ARRIVES. WITH THE PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT...NW WINDS WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE WED EVENING AND THEN THRU THU AS A FOLLOWING LOW PRES
CENTER PASSES SE ACROSS NRN ONTARIO. UNDER CAA/INCREASING OVERWATER
INSTABILITY...NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-30KT...ESPECIALLY THU/THU
NIGHT. GALES ARE A POSSIBILITY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO UNDER 20KT BY
LATE FRIDAY AFTN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH...SW WINDS WILL RAMP BACK UP TO 20-30KT SAT.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 405 PM EST TUE MAR 6 2012

EVEN WITH THE WARM TEMPS OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...DON/T EXPECT
MUCH IF ANY MELTING TO OCCUR DUE TO THE UN-RIPE CONDITIONS OF THE
SNOW PACK. LOOKING AT NOHRSC CURRENT AND FUTURE SNOWPACK
TEMPERATURES...ONLY THE TOP AND MIDDLE LAYERS /TOP 2-10 INCHES
DEPENDING ON LOCATION/ OF THE SNOWPACK BECOME RIPE OVER THE SW HALF
OF THE CWA BY WED EVENING. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME
COMPACTION/MELTING OF THE TOP OF THE EXISTING SNOWPACK...BUT IT
SHOULD STILL RETAIN THE WATER AND KEEP MUCH OR ALL OF THE MOISTURE
IN THE SNOWPACK THROUGH WED EVENING.

WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON
WED...DON/T EXPECT ANY MELTING TO OCCUR WED NIGHT INTO SAT. WITH THE
WARMING TREND EXPECTED DURING THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK...WILL
NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON A SLOWLY RIPENING SNOWPACK. THE POTENTIAL FOR
RAIN ON SUN/MON MAY ASSIST IN THIS RIPENING THROUGH THE FIRST PART
OF NEXT WEEK.

THE POTENTIAL FOR MELTING OF THE SNOWPACK COULD GREATLY INCREASE
HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AS OVERNIGHT LOWS AND TD
VALUES RISE ABOVE FREEZING. THE EXTENDED MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES /10 PLUS DEGREES/ FOR THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. IF THE WARM TEMPS SHOWN ON THE ECMWF /HIGHS IN THE 60S
FOR WED AND THURS/ COME TO FRUITION...THE MELT MAY BE FAIRLY FAST
AND RUN OFF DIRECTLY INTO AREA RIVERS. THUS...WILL NEED TO KEEP AN
EYE ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS NEXT WEEK FOR THE POTENTIAL OF RISING
LEVELS DUE TO SNOWMELT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...ROLFSON
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON
HYDROLOGY...SRF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GLASGOW MT

950 AM MST TUE MAR 6 2012

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
UPDATE...SPLITTING UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH
NORTHEAST MONTANA. BAND OF LIGHT RAIN CURRENTLY LIES FROM
PLENTYWOOD THROUGH JORDAN AND CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST. SURFACE COLD FRONT IS PUSHING IN BEHIND THIS
BAND...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING AND TEMPERAUTRES FALLING
BEHIND THE FRONT. UPDATED TO ADJUST POPS CLOSER TO RADAR
OBSERVATIONS THIS MORNING...AND IN LINE WITH THE HRRR MODEL THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH IS CURRENTLY THE PERFORMER AMONG THE DIFFERENT
MODELS. PRECIP WILL HAVE ENDED BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING...WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TONIGHT. GILCHRIST

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...UPPER SPLITTING TROUGH IS MOVING IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST AND AS MODELS HAVE BEEN SAYING OVER THE LAST SEVERAL
DAYS. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SPLIT WITH MOST OF THE ENERGY
FOLLOWING THE SOUTHERN PART BECOMING A CLOSED CUT OFF SYSTEM OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. THE NORTHERN PART HAS ALREADY COLLECTED THE
QUASI STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND WILL PUSH IT
SOUTH AND EAST INTO EASTERN MONTANA AS WE GO THROUGH THE DAY. IT
LOOKS LIKE THE REALLY BIG DROP IN TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR MASS MOVES IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. MOST HIGHS WILL OCCUR EARLY TUESDAY WITH MODERATELY
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION DROPPING 850 MB TEMPS TO AS LOW AS -13C
IN OUR N BY 5 PM TUESDAY. WINDS AT 850 MB ARE AROUND 30 KNOTS
BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON SO EXPECT A MODERATE NORTHWEST
WIND MAKING TEMPERATURES FEEL MUCH COLDER AS THESE WIND MIX TO THE
SURFACE.

THE ONE THING ABOUT THIS SYSTEM IS THE MODELS ARE SLIGHTLY OFF ON
PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE FRONT AND SURFACE LOW THIS MORNING. THE
LATEST 09Z RUC IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
AND THE FRONT IS MUCH FARTHER SOUTH THEN THE 00Z MODELS WERE
INDICATING. THIS IS INTERESTING SINCE THE LAST THREE CLIPPER
SYSTEMS WE HAVE HAD MOVE THROUGH WERE FARTHER SOUTH THEN THE
MODELS INDICATED. SO DECIDED TO RAISE POPS TO THE LIKELY CATEGORY
AND EVEN THOUGHT ABOUT A WINTER HIGHLIGHT BUT DECIDE AGAINST IT.
SINCE MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL BE RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT AND BEFORE
18Z AND THE SNOW WILL BE ELEVATION DEPENDENT IN THE MORNING.
ANYTHING ABOVE 3000 FT IS LIKELY TO SEE SNOWFALL WHILE EVERY
ELSE IT WILL BE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. AFTER 18Z ONCE THE COLD
AIR ADVECTION BECOMES STRONG THE WINTRY MIX WILL BECOME ALL SNOW
ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST.

.AVIATION...
VFR. A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND CENTRAL
MONTANA THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARDS NORTHEAST MONTANA.
THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE THE GLASGOW AREA AROUND 17Z AND EXIT THE
EASTERN AREAS BY 22Z. PRE-FRONTAL LOOK FOR AREAS OF RAIN SHOWERS
AND LOW VFR CONDITIONS. POST FRONTAL MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS AND
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS MAY DROP FLIGHT LEVELS TO MVFR BRIEFLY.
EXPECT VFR TO DOMINATE ALL AREAS BY 03Z. PROTON/AES

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW