Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 03/05/12

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DENVER CO

 845 PM MST SUN MAR 4 2012

.UPDATE...NO CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE EVENING FORECAST. WINDS
DECREASED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS EVENING INVERSIONS
DEVELOPED. SKIES ARE CLEAR AND WILL REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH
TOMORROW. WARM TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON TAP FOR MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...NO AVIATION IMPACTS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 241 PM MST SUN MAR 4 2012/

SHORT TERM...THE CROSS STATE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO
RELAX WITH THE EAGLE-DENVER SFC P.G. FALLING BELOW 7 MBS IN THE
PAST HOUR. WHEREAS THE STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT HAS YET TO
DECREASE AS PER AREA PROFILERS AND RUC WIND FIELDS. THAT SAID...
SFC WIND SPEEDS CONTINUE TO DECREASE...EXCEPT UP AGAINST THE
FOOTHILLS AND HIGHER AREAS NORTH OF FORT COLLINS NEAR THE WYOMING
BORDER WHERE WESTERLY WINDS STILL GUSTING 35-45 MPH. WIND SPEEDS
SHOULD DECREASE IN THESE AREAS AS WELL DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS
ACCORDING TO MODEL GUIDANCE. WINDS SHOULD ASSUME THEIR USUAL
DRAINAGE PATTERN NOT TOO LONG AFTER SUNSET...EXCEPT NEAR THE
FOOTHILLS WHERE AN ENHANCED DRAINAGE FLOW IS LIKELY TO PERSIST
OVERNIGHT. DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...MODELS INDICATE A 1-2C
WARMUP AT 700MB AND LOW RHS THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN OVER NORTHEAST
COLORADO. THEREFORE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WARMER SFC TEMPERATURES
AREAWIDE. AND WITH A WEAKER PRES GRAD ACROSS THE AREA...WINDS WILL
BE MUCH LIGHTER...EXCEPT PERHAPS NEAR THE FOOTHILLS WHERE WE COULD
SEE OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 30 MPH.

LONG TERM...FLAT RIDGE ACROSS COLORADO ON MONDAY NIGHT WITH FAST
WESTERLY FLOW...WILL SHIFT MORE SOUTHWESTERLY ON TUESDAY. THIS IN
REPSONSE TO DEEPENING TROF OVER THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. CROSS SECTIONS SHOW CROSS BARRIER FLOW OF
30-40KT SO CONTINUED GUSTY WINDS. SOME OF THIS WIND WILL MIX DOWN
OVER THE PLAINS TUESDAY WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS MIXING DOWN.
THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED WHERE THERE IS STILL SOME SNOW
COVER SO BIT COOLER AND BORDERLINE RH LVLS SO NO FIRE HILITES
NEEDED. MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL READINGS WELL INTO THE
60S OVER ALL THE PLAINS.

BIGGER CONCERN TURNS TO THE MID WEEK WITH THE GREAT BASIN UPPER
LOW DEVELOPMENT AND HOW IT WILL EFFECT COLORADO. MODELS FAIRLY
CONSISTENT IN BRINGING IN INITIAL COLD FRONT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH COLDER AIRMASS IN PLACE FOR WEDNESDAY. THE PROBLEM IS THE
MODELS ARE QUITE VARIED ON WHERE THE LOW GOES NEXT. THE EUROPEAN
KEEPS THE LOW OVER ARIZONA THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING IT INTO
NEW MEXICO ON FRIDAY THEN SWINGS IT INTO COLORADO ON SATURDAY. THE
GFS ON THE OTHER HAND MOVES THE LOW INTO 4 CORNERS REGION LATE
WEDNESDAY BEFORE SLOWLY MOVING IT INTO SW KANSAS BY FRIDAY AND
THEN IT SITS AND SITS THORUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. NOT SURE HOW
MUCH MOISTURE IS GOING TO BE AVAILABLE SO FOR NOW JUST KEEP OUR
LOW POPS AND EXTEND THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY WITH THE SLOWER
MOVEMENT.

AVIATION...WEST WINDS 10-20KTS AT DIA AND APA AIRPORTS...AND
15-30KTS AT BJC NEAR T HE FOOTHILLS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL GO DRAINAGE 6-12KTS
AFTER 01Z...EXCEPT AT BJC WHERE WE COULD SEE WEST-SOUTHWEST
WINDS OF 12-22KTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. OTHERWISE CLEAR/MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE DENVER AREA FOR
NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DANKERS
LONG TERM....ENTREKIN
AVIATION...DANKERS






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TAUNTON MA

 145 AM EST SAT MAR 3 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. THIS
WILL PUSH MILDER AIR INTO NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING. THE LOW THEN SWINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH NEW ENGLAND
AROUND MIDDAY SATURDAY. LOW PRES OVER THE MARITIMES PROVIDES
MAINLY DRY AND COLDER WEATHER SUN AND MON...THEN HIGH PRES MOVES
OFFSHORE YIELDING A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND MID TO LATE NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
130 AM UPDATE...ADJUSTED TEMPERATURE TRENDS TO REFLECT LATEST
OBSERVATIONS. INITIAL BAND OF OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION ALREADY
MOVING TOWARD THE COAST AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. LOTS OF REPORTS
OF SLEET AND SNOW...WITH QUICK ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 1 INCH. SOME
FREEZING RAIN REPORTED IN THE LOWER CT RIVER VALLEY IN MA. FARTHER
SOUTH IN CT...AL PRECIPITATION CHANGED TO RAIN. WILL PROBABLY
CANCEL THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ACROSS NORTHERN CT AT THE TOP
OF THE HOUR TO BE SURE THE WARM AIR STAYS PUT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

HAVE EXTENDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ALONG THE
EDGES A BIT TO INCLUDE INTERIOR ESSEX COUNTY IN NE MA...NW
PROVIDENCE COUNTY AND THE NORTHERN CT COUNTIES OF
HARTFORD...TOLLAND AND WINDHAM. WE BELIEVE THE RISK OF A FEW HOURS
OF MIXED PRECIPITATION IS SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT THE ADVISORY
EXPANSION BASED ON CURRENT OBS AND LATEST MODEL PROJECTIONS. FOR
INTERIOR ESSEX COUNTY...SHORT TERM MODELS CONSISTENT IN KEEPING 2M
TEMPS AT OR BELOW FREEZING FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER LIGHT
PRECIPITATION MOVES IN. FOR NORTHERN CT AND NW RI...CONFIDENCE IS
LOWER BUT HERE TOO TEMP/DEWPT READINGS AND SHORT TERM MODEL
PROJECTIONS...INCLUDING RUC AND HRRR...POINT TO 2 TO 3 HOURS OF
LIGHT SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN. WHEN IT COMES TO SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN...VERY SMALL AMOUNTS WILL CAUSE UNTREATED SURFACES
TO QUICKLY BECOME VERY SLIPPERY. RADAR AND BUFKIT PROFILES SUGGEST
A RISK OF A SEEDER-FEEDER MECHANISM SETTING UP LATER THIS
EVENING...SOONER THAN LATER FOR NORTHERN CT AND NW RI. THUS...
OPTED TO START THE ADVISORY AT 9 PM FOR THIS AREA.
INTERESTINGLY...A SMALL MESOSCALE AREA OF PATCHY VERY LIGHT SNOW
HAS ALREADY BROKEN OUT ALONG THE CT RIVER VALLEY...POSSIBLY A
COMBINATION OF TERRAIN INDUCED CONVERGENCE AND THE BEGINNING OF
SEEDING FROM ABOVE.

WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE MIDWEST SYSTEM BRINGS INCREASING
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN AREA OF LIFT ENTERS WESTERN
CT/MA AROUND MIDNIGHT AND IS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
AROUND SUNRISE. LIFT RATES REACH A MAXIMUM AROUND 25 MB/HOUR AT
12Z.

PTYPE STARTS MESSY. ECMWF AND GFS SHOW STRONG LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY
AGEOSTROPHIC FLOW AT 06Z...WHICH WOULD HOLD IN COLD AIR NEAR THE
SURFACE. OBSERVED TEMPS ACROSS NORTHERN MASS AND SOUTHERN NH ARE
STARTING BELOW FREEZING. AREAS ALONG THE MASS PIKE AND IN NORTHERN
CT/NW RHODE ISLAND ARE MARGINAL. LOOKS LIKE MOSTLY RAIN IN THE
COASTAL PLAIN...ALTHOUGH BRIEF SLEET POSSIBLE AT THE START. THE
BEST CHANCE OF SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN WOULD BE IN WESTERN
MASS/WORCESTER HILLS/SOUTHERN NH. AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW IS
POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA AS WELL AS ICE OF UP TO 0.1 INCH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
STRONG LIFT IN THE MORNING DECREASING TOWARD MIDDAY. COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS FROM WEST TO EAST LATE MORNING/MIDDAY WITH A WIND
SHIFT TO WEST FOR THE AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD MEAN A WET MORNING
WITH RAIN BECOMING MORE SHOWERY AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES.

ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH TOTALS REACHING 50-55 AND SHOWALTER
REACHING -1. THIS IS ENOUGH TO MENTION A CHANCE OF THUNDER.

INCREASING SOUTH FLOW WORKS TO THE SURFACE AND MOVES NORTH ACROSS
THE REGION. THIS WILL CHANGE ANY LINGERING FREEZING PCPN TO RAIN.
IT WILL ALSO TRANSPORT MILDER TEMPS INTO THE REGION. 950 MB TEMPS
REACH 10C IN THE COASTAL PLAIN AND 4C IN THE NORTHWEST. THIS WOULD
THIS WOULD SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WEST
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND BRING DRIER AIR TO THE REGION. MODEL TIME
SECTIONS SHOW DRYING AT ALL LEVELS...SO EXPECT AFTERNOON/EVENING
CLEARING...THEN MOSTLY CLEAR AT NIGHT.

A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT SATURDAY
NIGHT...BUT THE UPPER FLOW FEATURES A PROGRESSIVE TROUGH WITH FLOW
TOWARD THE EAST OVER THE NORTHEAST...SO ANY OFFSHORE LOW SHOULD
STAY OUT TO SEA. ENOUGH INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE SO THAT WE
COULD GET INCREASED CIRRUS DURING SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

    * BOTH WINTER AND SPRING-LIKE TEMPS FEATURED THIS PERIOD
    * MAINLY DRY WEATHER MUCH OF THE TIME

MODEL PREFERENCES AND SYNOPTIC OVERALL...
12Z MODELS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT EARLY THIS PERIOD ON THE LARGE
SCALE FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS WHICH FEATURES A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN STATES AND ASSOCIATED BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS AND TEMPS. MAINLY
DRY WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL SUN-MON AS LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC
ZONE/STORM TRACK SHOULD STAY FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE.  THEN MODELS AGREE
ON EJECTING TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD AIRMASS BEGINNING TUE AS
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE SW ATLC.  MODELS THEN DIVERGE
MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK WITH THE GFS ON THE PROGRESSIVE/FAST EDGE OF
THE GUIDANCE WITH THE NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH. CONVERSELY THE 12Z ECMWF
REMAINS ON THE SLOW SIDE OF THE GUID ENVELOPE WITH THE 12Z GEFS AND
00Z ECENS SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN. THIS WOULD SUGGEST THE MILD TO WARM
WEATHER DEVELOPING DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK MAY LINGER LONGER
THAN THE 12Z GFS SUGGEST. THUS WE HAVE TRENDED WARMER /CLOSER TO 18Z
HPC GUIDANCE/ AND SLOWER WITH FROPA THAN THE 12Z GMOS FOR NEXT THU
AND FRI.

DAILY SENSIBLE WEATHER DETAILS...

SUN...MID LEVEL TROF MAY BACK SUFFICIENTLY FOR OFFSHORE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND SURFACE WAVE TO RETROGRADE ENOUGH FOR PRECIP SHIELD TO
GRAZE CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. COLUMN APPEARS COLD ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT SNOW WITH SUB-FREEZING WET BULB TEMPS. HOWEVER GIVEN ONLY
VERY LIGHT PRECIP IS EXPECTED MUCH OF THIS MAY BE VIRGA AND FALL AS
RAIN AS PRECIP INTENSITY WILL LIKELY BE TOO LIGHT FOR WET BULB TEMPS
TO BE REALIZED. ELSEWHERE DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL ALONG WITH AT
LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

MON...MORE OF A WINTER-LIKE DAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. DIFFICULT
TEMP FORECAST HERE WITH NAM AND GFS MUCH COLDER ALOFT THAN THE
ECMWF. 12Z GMOS OFFERS HIGHS IN THE 30S...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE.
HOWEVER IF CLOUD COVER BECOMES EXTENSIVE WITH COLD POOL ALOFT AND
CYCLONIC FLOW HIGH TEMPS WILL BE COOLER.

TUE...WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY WITH TEMPS REBOUNDING TOWARD 40 AS
HIGH PRES MOVES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND AND RETURN FLOW BEGINS TO
MODIFY COLD AIRMASS OVER THE REGION.

WED...TEMPS CONTINUE TO CLIMB INTO THE 50S COURTESY OF SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE DEVELOPING OFFSHORE.

THU AND FRI...COULD MAKE A RUN AT 60F THU AND POSSIBLE FRI AS STRONG
LOW LEVEL WAA OCCURS AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AS MENTIONED
ABOVE FAVORED THE 12Z GEFS AND 00Z ECENS AS THIS SERVES AS A GOOD
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE FAST OP 12Z GFS AND SLOWER 12Z ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
  LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT
  MODERATE...30 PERCENT TO 60 PERCENT
  HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT

THROUGH 12Z...MAINLY MVFR CIGS PERSIST ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. IFR CIGS IN THE WORCESTER HILLS AND MONADNOCKS. CURRENTLY
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD IFR TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHEAST EARLY THIS MORNING. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TRENDS...WITH
LOWER CONFIDENCE ON THE EXACT TIMING.

TODAY...SHOWERS AND IFR CONTINUE THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY AS A
LINE OF SHOWERS MOVES ACROSS MID MORNING TO MIDDAY. THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH THESE SHOWERS. A COLD
FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH AROUND MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON WITH A WIND
SHIFT TO WEST. PCPN ENDS AT THAT TIME WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING
TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
TREND...MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR. HIGH CLOUDS RETURN OVERNIGHT
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST.

SUNDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR AS A LOW PRESSURE MOVES
NORTH WELL OFFSHORE.

KBOS TERMINAL...
MVFR CEILINGS THIS EVENING BUT TRENDING TOWARD IFR TOWARD 06Z AS
PRECIP SHIELD OVERSPREADS EASTERN MA. THE PCPN MAY START AS A MIX
OF RAIN/SNOW/SLEET BUT SHOULD QUICKLY CHANGE TO ALL RAIN. IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. A LINE OF
SHOWERS MOVES THROUGH AROUND MIDDAY...POSSIBLY ACCOMPANIED BY A
THUNDERSTORM...BUT HIGHER PROBABILITY OF TSTMS WILL BE SOUTH OVER
THE OCEAN.  WINDS SHIFT TO WEST...THEN CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR
DURING THE AFTERNOON. VFR SATURDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MARGINAL MVFR-VFR CIGS WITH LOWEST
CIGS SHIFTING FROM THE CAPE INLAND/HIGHER TERRAIN MON. MAINLY DRY
WEATHER BOTH DAYS. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY AND WED...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR BOTH DAYS AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE AREA.
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. SW WINDS MAY BECOME GUSTY WED.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST THIS EVENING BRINGING A
SOUTHEAST FLOW TO THE WATERS. LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES WILL BRING STRONG WINDS ALOFT WHICH WILL TRANSPORT
ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR RAIN. THE INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
ALSO SUPPORT SOME INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS. SO LATER TONIGHT WINDS
WILL REACH 25-30 KNOTS...AND SEAS WILL BUILD WITH THE EXPOSED
WATERS AT 5 FEET OR HIGHER.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN EITHER CONTINUED OR ISSUED FOR
ALL WATERS EXCEPT BOSTON HARBOR AND NARRAGANSETT BAY. WINDS FOR
THESE LATTER WATERS DON/T LOOK TO REACH 25 KNOTS...BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE ON THIS PART OF THE FORECAST.

A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOON. WEST
WINDS WILL HOVER NEAR 20-25 KNOTS LATER SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. SEAS WILL PERSIST AT OR ABOVE 5 FEET MUCH OF THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUN...MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH LOW PRES TRACKING WELL S AND E OF NEW
ENGLAND.

MON...N-NW WINDS MAY BECOME GUSTY MON NIGHT AS LOW PRES TRACKS SE OF
NEW ENGLAND. DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY SHOULD PREVAIL.

TUE...QUIET WEATHER PREVAILS WITH GUSTY NNW WINDS POSSIBLE EARLY TUE
BUT LIKELY DIMINISHING AS HIGH PRES DRIFT INTO THE AREA.

WED...SW WINDS MAY BECOME GUSTY ESPECIALLY NEAR SHORE AS HIGH PRES
DRIFTS SEAWARD. DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT WAS ISSUED AT 225 PM. THIS
STATEMENT GIVES A REVIEW OF DECEMBER-JANUARY-FEBRUARY CONDITIONS AT
OUR FOUR CLIMATE SITES...BOSTON-PROVIDENCE-HARTFORD-WORCESTER.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     MAZ009>012.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     MAZ002>006-008-026.
NH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NHZ011-
     012-015.
RI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     RIZ001.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ235-237-250-
     254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/NOCERA
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...WTB/NOCERA
MARINE...WTB/NOCERA
CLIMATE...










AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTHERN INDIANA

 1242 PM EST SAT MAR 3 2012

.AVIATION...
RADAR TRENDS OVER LAST HALF HOUR OR SO INDICATING INCREASING
RETURNS AND INTENSITY ALONG THE IN/MI STATE LINE. VSBYS AT KSBN
HAVE DROPPED TO 2SM RECENTLY AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE AT TIMES.
A DUSTING OF SNOW COULD IMPACT RUNWAYS AT KSBN IF BAND PERSISTS
LONG ENOUGH. TEMPO GROUP MODIFIED SLIGHTLY TO REFLECT THIS.
OTHERWISE LITTLE MORE THAN FLURRIES/LGT SNOW SHOWERS TO BE SEEN
OUTSIDE THESE BANDS.

FOCUS WILL TURN TOWARDS NEXT WAVE DROPPING IN LATER TONIGHT.
MODELS STILL ADVERTISE INCREASE IN LIFT AND LAKE EFFECT PARAMETERS
TOWARDS 12Z SUN WHEN A DECENT BAND OF SNOWSHOWERS SHOULD SET UP
FROM BERRIEN COUNTY INTO THE KSBN AREA. VSBYS AND CIGS COULD BE
IMPACTED MORE THAN IFR BUT APPEAR ON TRACK AND LEFT ALONE WITH
ONLY SLIGHT TIMING ADJUSTMENT. FURTHER TWEAKS WILL BE NEEDED WITH
LATER FORECASTS...ESPECIALLY BY THE 6Z TAF TIME WHEN BANDS SHOULD
BE UNDERWAY ACROSS MICHIGAN AND BETTER CORRELATION OF MODEL
GUIDANCE CAN BE ASCERTAINED. MVFR IMPACT AT KFWA AT THIS POINT
WITH THE OVERNIGHT FEATURES INTO SUNDAY. MODELS DO SUGGEST BAND
COULD GET CLOSE TO THE AIRPORT BUT GIVEN UNCERTANTITY OF INLAND
EXTENT WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY CHANGES.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1043 AM EST SAT MAR 3 2012/

UPDATE...
UPDATED GRIDS/ZONES OUT TO EXPAND POPS INTO THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE NORTH WHERE UPSTREAM TRENDS SUGGEST A HIGH CONFIDENCE...LOW
QPF EVENT INTO THIS AFTERNOON. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS CONTINUING TO STIR UP SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES...EVEN BACK INTO
WISCONSIN. ONLY TALKING MAYBE A TENTH OR 2 IN MOST AREAS BUT
ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN/RAISE POPS SOMEWHAT. ALSO LOWERED TEMPS A
DEGREE OR 2 GIVEN NO SIGNS OF CLEARING AND LITTLE OVERALL SWING IN
TEMPS EXPECTED.

MARINE...
GALE WARNING WAS DOWNGRADED TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EARLIER WITH
WIND GUSTS AT BOTH MICHIGAN CITY AND ST JOE MARINE SITES HOLDING
BELOW 35 KNOTS FOR PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. WAVES WILL CONTINUE HIGH
INTO TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 652 AM EST SAT MAR 3 2012/

SHORT TERM...
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
FAVOR RUC/NAM WRT SHORTWAVE TIMING AND RUC BEST HANDLE ON
SATURATION BLO 925MB SUBSIDENCE INVERSION THIS AM. DIFFICULT FCST
IN NW FLOW/EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES/VARYING DEGREES OF LAKE ENHANCEMENT
THROUGH SHORT TERM...THOUGH ON WHOLE RELATIVELY BENIGN. VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO LIFT NEWD INTO ONT/QUEB THIS AM...TAKING
LEAD AS MN WAVE UNDERGOES STRETCHING AS IT DIVES SEWD TOWARD CWA
THIS AM. BACKING CBL FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THIS WAVE SHOULD KEEP LAKE
ENHANCED RETURNS RELEGATED TO NRN BERRIEN/CASS COUNTIES. WEAK
UPSTREAM RETURNS AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE SHOULD MAINTAIN AMID CONTD
925-850MB COLD ADVECTION/DCVA REGIME ACRS NRN IN/SWRN LWR MI.
ACCUMS IN CHECK TODAY PER WARM BL AND SOIL SFCS...GNRLY NO
APPRECIABLE ACCUMS EXPECTED... SAVE FOR UP TO AN INCH TODAY IN FAR
NRN TIER BERRIEN TO CASS COUNTIES MI. STRONGER SHORTWAVE POISED
ACRS FAR NRN CANADA TO DIVE SEWD ALONG NRN PERIPHERY OF EPAC RIDGE
PRIOR TO ITS COLLAPSE DY2. INCRS SATURATION/AND LIFT WITHIN DGZ AS
LAKE INDUCED EQL RISE TO 9-10KFT BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY IN 295-300
DEGREE MEAN CBL FLOW WARRANTS RISE IN POPS DOWNWIND LK MI THROUGH
TONIGHT. WEAK FLOW SHOULD LIMIT IN LAND EXTENT. YET ANOTHER WAVE
NEAR YELLOWKNIFE AND ASSOCD MIDLVL JET STREAK FOR SUNDAY. DEEP UVM
AIDED ACRS CWA IN LEFT FRONT QUAD REGN OF 140-150KT UL JET TO DIVE
SE THROUGH NRN PLAINS TO MO/IL...SHARPENING MIDLVL TROF AND
FOCUSING INVERTED SFC TROFFING FM NRN MN-SERN WI SEWD THROUGH
HEART OF CWA FOR SYNOPTIC SWATCH OF ENHANCED SNOWFALL
SUNDAY...WITH FOCUSED POPS ALONG ATYPICAL NW FLOW PATTERN
DEPICTING I280K WEAK UPGLIDE. OVERALL HIGH DIFFICULTY IN
PLACEMENT/TIMING...HOWEVER DID AFFORD SOME NW TO SE TIMING OF HIR
POPS SUN AS SHORTWAVE INFLUENCE DWINDLES ACRS NWRN CWA SUNDAY AFTN
AS ENERGY TRANSFER AIDS UPTICK IN MID ATL/COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS.
TEMPS TYPICALLY AOB GUID WITH EXPANSIVE CLOUD COVER TODAY/WEAK CAA
AND ANTICIPATED HIGH PROB/LOW QPF SNOWBAND SUN.

LONG TERM...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE MAIN CHALLENGES THIS PERIOD OCCUR LATE
NEXT WEEK WHEN ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA.
OVERALL...THE GFS...ECMWF AND CANADIAN GEM ENSEMBLE SPREADS WERE
VERY LARGE...ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF WHERE NORMALIZED STANDARD
DEVIATIONS WERE LARGE AND INDICATED LOW CONFIDENCE. THEREFORE...MADE
VERY FEW CHANGES AFTER TUESDAY NIGHT. THE ONGOING FORECAST WITH A
CHANCE FOR RAIN WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY IS STILL PLAUSIBLE AND IS
SUPPORTED BY THE OPERATIONAL GFS RUN. OTHERWISE...KEPT MONDAY COLD
FOLLOWED BY MODERATING TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. CONTINUED
TO TREND DOWN LOWS MONDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER EAST AREAS AS A
COLD SFC HIGH LINGERS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...FISHER
UPDATE...FISHER






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS GRAY ME

 1035 PM EST SUN MAR 4 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND
WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST
ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND
WILL HOLD OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY AND WILL PUSH
SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT...SHIFTING OFFSHORE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH FROM CANADA ON
SATURDAY MOVING OFFSHORE BY LATE IN THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPDATE...BADN OF SNFL IS BECOMING MORE N-S ORIENTED ATTM...AS SFC
TROF CONTINUES TO SAG TOWARDS THE COAST. WILL PROBABLY SEE SNFL
RATES APPROACH 1"/HR IN THE HEAVIEST PART OF THE BAND. IT IS ALSO
BECOMING A LITTLE MORE PROGRESSIVE...SO 1-2" TOTALS LOOK GOOD.
MIGHT SEE SOME LOCALIZED HIGHER AMNTS. IF BAND BEGINS TO SLOW DOWN
AGAIN OR PERSIST LIKE THE HRRR SUGGESTS IT MIGHT...QPF AND SNFL
TOTALS WOULD NEED TO BE NUDGED UP SOME MORE FOR THE MIDCOAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...INTERESTING SLOW MOVING BAND OF SHSN
MOVING ACROSS NRN NEW ENG IN ASSOC WITH COLD FRONT SETTLING
SOUTHWARD. VSBL SATELLITE IMAGES CONTINUES TO SHOW THE CONVECTIVE
LOOKING CLOUDS SHIFTING SLOWLY TO THE EAST. THIS EASTWARD
PROGRESSION HAS BEEN SLOWED THIS AFTERNOON BY THE PRESENCE OF
SUBSIDENCE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE OFFSHORE COASTAL SYSTEM.

SR MODELS BRING THIS BOUNDARY TO SRN MAINE BY EVENING.
THE LATEST HRRR RUNS HAVE FINALLY BEGUN TO PICK UP THE BRIEF
PERIOD OF BANDED PCPN NOW FORECAST FOR THE LAST SVRL RUNS BY THE
NAM (AND TO SOME EXTENT THE GFS) TO SETTLE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL PTNS
OF OUR FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING.

WITH A SFC LOW INTENSIFYING OFF THE CST...AND A STALLED OUT
BOUNDARY INTERACTING WITH POSITIVE VERTICAL MOTION IN THE LWR
LVLS...THIS PTTN IS BEGINNING TO RESEMBLE SOME CHARACTERISTICS OF
A NORLUN TYPE II TROUGH ("LDRI" FROM PREV NE STORM CONFERENCES). WILL
ENHANCE THE POPS FOR THIS EVENING OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL AND COASTAL AREAS
N OF PWM WHERE BEST LAPSE RATES AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL EXIST.
POPS WILL TAPER OFF AS YOU HEAD INTO WRN AND SRN NH.

QPF...WILL INCLUDE A SNOW MAP FOR THIS AFTNS AND TNGTS TOTALS.
WILL BE UPDATING THIS GRAPHIC PERIODICALLY THRU THE EVE HRS.

OTRW...PLENTY OF CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER
TROF. MOST OF THE PCPN TO EXIT OFF THE COAST OR DIMINISH TOWARDS MRNG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT/...
BY MONDAY...ANY LEFTOVER FLURRIES WILL BE CONFINED TO THE UPSLOPE
AREAS OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE NRN/WRN MTNS. USED A BLEND OF
MET/MAV MOS FOR AFTN HIGH TEMPS. TEMPS TOMORROW WILL BE RUNNING
COOLER THAN WHAT WE HAVE BEEN USED TO AS THE CORE OF THE RIDGE
KEEPS H8 TEMPS BTWN -14 AND -18 DEG C.

CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS ONCE AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT WELL OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COASTLINE. TOO FAR OFFSHORE TO INFLUENCE OUR WX IN ME AND NH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY BRINGING MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES TO MUCH OF THE AREA. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME HIGH
CLOUDINESS SPILLING INTO WESTERN ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE WITH MID 20S TO LOWER 30S
IN THE NORTH AND LOWER TO MID 30S IN THE SOUTH.

RETURN FLOW WILL BRING WARMER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT.
EXPECT VARIABLE CLOUDINESS AS AREA OF WEAK OVER-RUNNING SHIFTS INTO
THE AREA FROM THE WEST. COULD SEE A STRAY SNOW SHOWER IN THE NORTH
BUT NOT GOING WITH ANY POPS AT THIS POINT. LOOKING FOR MILDER
OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MID TEENS IN THE NORTH
AND MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S IN THE SOUTH.

MOSTLY SUNNY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE EAST COAST. ONLY LOOKING FOR A FEW PATCHY
HIGH CLOUDS WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S IN THE NORTH
AND MID 40S TO LOWER 50S IN THE SOUTH.

WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH FROM CANADA ON THURSDAY. SEEING SOME
RUN TO RUN TIMING DIFFERENCES ON HOW QUICKLY THIS BOUNDARY DROPS
SOUTH BUT IT SHOULD BE ANOTHER DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY DAY IN AT LEAST
SOUTHERN ZONES. EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE NORTH WITH A CHANCE OF A LATE DAY SPRINKLE. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL AGAIN BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH MID 40S TO LOWER 50S IN THE
NORTH AND RANGING THROUGH THE 50S TO NEAR 60 IN THE SOUTH.

COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY EVENING
..SHIFTING OFFSHORE BEFORE MIDNIGHT. WILL STICK WITH CHANCE POPS FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA WITH RAIN SHOWERS MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO SNOW
SHOWERS BEFORE ENDING. SHOULD SEE CLEARING SKIES AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY BEFORE MOVING
OFFSHORE. WARM FRONT CROSSING SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BRING HIGH CLOUDS
INTO THE REGION DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON BUT
LOOKING FOR A DRY DAY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH FROM CANADA ON SATURDAY AND WILL
QUICKLY MOVE OFFSHORE IN THE AFTERNOON. LITTLE IF ANY MOISTURE OR
FORCING WITH THIS BOUNDAY SO AT THIS POINT SEE LITTLE MORE THAN A
FEW PASSING CLOUDS WITH THIS SYSTEM.

ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD SOUTH FROM CANADA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY KEEPING WEATHER MILD AND QUIET IN THE
NORTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MVFR AND LCLY IFR CONDS DVLPG THIS EVE...MAINLY OVER
S-CNTRL ME AND ALG THE MIDCOAST RGN. CONDS SLOWLY IMPROVG LATE
TNGT AND THROUGH MONDAY.

LONG TERM...VFR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SOME AREAS OF MVFR
CEILINGS THURSDAY EVENING. VFR FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED FOR THE OUTER WATERS. THERE
WILL BE A LULL IN THE WIND FIELD TNGT...HWVR...SEAS WILL RMN AOA 5
FT. NW GRADIENT TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN ON MONDAY WITH FRQNT GUSTS
TO 25 KT CONTINUING RGT THRU MON NGT. HENCE SCAS HAVE BEEN
EXTENDED OUTWARDS IN TIME.

LONG TERM...SCA`S MAYBE NEEDED WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

LEGRO








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS GRAY ME

 715 PM EST SUN MAR 4 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND
WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST
ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND
WILL HOLD OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY AND WILL PUSH
SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT...SHIFTING OFFSHORE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH FROM CANADA ON
SATURDAY MOVING OFFSHORE BY LATE IN THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPDATE...ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO ADJUST THE TIMING OF HIGHER POP
SLIGHTLY THIS EVE. AXIS OF STRONGER RADAR RETURNS IS BEGINNING TO
MAKE PROGRESS TOWARDS THE COAST ATTM.

SFC TROF CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SAG SWD TOWARDS THE COAST.
18Z/04 NAM DOES PICK UP ON THE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE LLVLS
ROUGHLY PARALLELING THE MTNS...BEFORE SAGGING SEWD AND ARCING
TOWARDS THE NRN SEACOAST AREAS. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTIVE OF THE
PREVIOUS SHIFT/S THINKING THAT SHORT TERM HI-RES MODELS ARE
PICKING UP ON PSBL BANDED SNFL NEAR THE COAST LATER TNGT. BASED ON
UPSTREAM REPORTS IN VT...AND CONVECTIVE NATURE OF SNFL IN THE
MTNS. HAVE UPPED BOTH QPF AND SNFL AMNTS IN THE NEAR TERM. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS TO SEE IF SIMILAR CHANGES NEED TO BE
MADE FOR NEAR THE COAST LATER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...INTERESTING SLOW MOVING BAND OF SHSN
MOVING ACROSS NRN NEW ENG IN ASSOC WITH COLD FRONT SETTLING
SOUTHWARD. VSBL SATELLITE IMAGES CONTINUES TO SHOW THE CONVECTIVE
LOOKING CLOUDS SHIFTING SLOWLY TO THE EAST. THIS EASTWARD
PROGRESSION HAS BEEN SLOWED THIS AFTERNOON BY THE PRESENCE OF
SUBSIDENCE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE OFFSHORE COASTAL SYSTEM.

SR MODELS BRING THIS BOUNDARY TO SRN MAINE BY EVENING.
THE LATEST HRRR RUNS HAVE FINALLY BEGUN TO PICK UP THE BRIEF
PERIOD OF BANDED PCPN NOW FORECAST FOR THE LAST SVRL RUNS BY THE
NAM (AND TO SOME EXTENT THE GFS) TO SETTLE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL PTNS
OF OUR FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING.

WITH A SFC LOW INTENSIFYING OFF THE CST...AND A STALLED OUT
BOUNDARY INTERACTING WITH POSITIVE VERTICAL MOTION IN THE LWR
LVLS...THIS PTTN IS BEGINNING TO RESEMBLE SOME CHARACTERISTICS OF
A NORLUN TYPE II TROUGH ("LDRI" FROM PREV NE STORM CONFERENCES). WILL
ENHANCE THE POPS FOR THIS EVENING OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL AND COASTAL AREAS
N OF PWM WHERE BEST LAPSE RATES AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL EXIST.
POPS WILL TAPER OFF AS YOU HEAD INTO WRN AND SRN NH.

QPF...WILL INCLUDE A SNOW MAP FOR THIS AFTNS AND TNGTS TOTALS.
WILL BE UPDATING THIS GRAPHIC PERIODICALLY THRU THE EVE HRS.

OTRW...PLENTY OF CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER
TROF. MOST OF THE PCPN TO EXIT OFF THE COAST OR DIMINISH TOWARDS MRNG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT/...
BY MONDAY...ANY LEFTOVER FLURRIES WILL BE CONFINED TO THE UPSLOPE
AREAS OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE NRN/WRN MTNS. USED A BLEND OF
MET/MAV MOS FOR AFTN HIGH TEMPS. TEMPS TOMORROW WILL BE RUNNING
COOLER THAN WHAT WE HAVE BEEN USED TO AS THE CORE OF THE RIDGE
KEEPS H8 TEMPS BTWN -14 AND -18 DEG C.

CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS ONCE AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT WELL OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COASTLINE. TOO FAR OFFSHORE TO INFLUENCE OUR WX IN ME AND NH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY BRINGING MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES TO MUCH OF THE AREA. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME HIGH
CLOUDINESS SPILLING INTO WESTERN ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE WITH MID 20S TO LOWER 30S
IN THE NORTH AND LOWER TO MID 30S IN THE SOUTH.

RETURN FLOW WILL BRING WARMER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT.
EXPECT VARIABLE CLOUDINESS AS AREA OF WEAK OVER-RUNNING SHIFTS INTO
THE AREA FROM THE WEST. COULD SEE A STRAY SNOW SHOWER IN THE NORTH
BUT NOT GOING WITH ANY POPS AT THIS POINT. LOOKING FOR MILDER
OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MID TEENS IN THE NORTH
AND MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S IN THE SOUTH.

MOSTLY SUNNY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE EAST COAST. ONLY LOOKING FOR A FEW PATCHY
HIGH CLOUDS WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S IN THE NORTH
AND MID 40S TO LOWER 50S IN THE SOUTH.

WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH FROM CANADA ON THURSDAY. SEEING SOME
RUN TO RUN TIMING DIFFERENCES ON HOW QUICKLY THIS BOUNDARY DROPS
SOUTH BUT IT SHOULD BE ANOTHER DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY DAY IN AT LEAST
SOUTHERN ZONES. EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE NORTH WITH A CHANCE OF A LATE DAY SPRINKLE. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL AGAIN BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH MID 40S TO LOWER 50S IN THE
NORTH AND RANGING THROUGH THE 50S TO NEAR 60 IN THE SOUTH.

COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY EVENING
..SHIFTING OFFSHORE BEFORE MIDNIGHT. WILL STICK WITH CHANCE POPS FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA WITH RAIN SHOWERS MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO SNOW
SHOWERS BEFORE ENDING. SHOULD SEE CLEARING SKIES AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY BEFORE MOVING
OFFSHORE. WARM FRONT CROSSING SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BRING HIGH CLOUDS
INTO THE REGION DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON BUT
LOOKING FOR A DRY DAY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH FROM CANADA ON SATURDAY AND WILL
QUICKLY MOVE OFFSHORE IN THE AFTERNOON. LITTLE IF ANY MOISTURE OR
FORCING WITH THIS BOUNDAY SO AT THIS POINT SEE LITTLE MORE THAN A
FEW PASSING CLOUDS WITH THIS SYSTEM.

ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD SOUTH FROM CANADA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY KEEPING WEATHER MILD AND QUIET IN THE
NORTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MVFR AND LCLY IFR CONDS DVLPG THIS EVE...MAINLY OVER
S-CNTRL ME AND ALG THE MIDCOAST RGN. CONDS SLOWLY IMPROVG LATE
TNGT AND THROUGH MONDAY.

LONG TERM...VFR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SOME AREAS OF MVFR
CEILINGS THURSDAY EVENING. VFR FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED FOR THE OUTER WATERS. THERE
WILL BE A LULL IN THE WIND FIELD TNGT...HWVR...SEAS WILL RMN AOA 5
FT. NW GRADIENT TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN ON MONDAY WITH FRQNT GUSTS
TO 25 KT CONTINUING RGT THRU MON NGT. HENCE SCAS HAVE BEEN
EXTENDED OUTWARDS IN TIME.

LONG TERM...SCA`S MAYBE NEEDED WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

LEGRO






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PITTSBURGH PA

 455 PM EST SAT MAR 3 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL PASS
SOUTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH TRAILING HIGH
PRESSURE ALLOWING FOR A DRY MID-WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
MADE A QUICK UPDATE TO ADD THE WORDING FOR ISOLATED FLURRIES A BIT
FURTHER SOUTH. OTHERWISE NO OTHER CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
THE LATEST RUC MID-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A CLOSED 500MB LOW
ACROSS QUEBEC WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE
ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. 1000-800MB LAYER MOISTURE IS
ADVECTING IN FROM THE WEST WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WEST OF A
LATROBE-MORGANTOWN LINE. AT THE SURFACE, A 982MB LOW IS LOCATED IN
QUEBEC WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE ALONG THE
EAST COAST OF THE US. A FEW FLURRIES ARE PASSING NORTH OF THE
PITTSBURGH METRO AS WEAK MID-LEVEL VORT ENERGY SLIDES ACROSS THE
AREA. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS IN PLACE BETWEEN THE LOW AND A
HIGH ACROSS THE PLAINS HAS ALLOWED FOR WINDS GUSTING AT 30 TO 40
MPH.

TONIGHT...WINDS WILL SUBSIDE WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING.
THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL SHIFT FROM WESTERLY TO WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY, WITH THE CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS RETURNING ALONG THE
I-80 CORRIDOR BY 06Z SUNDAY. LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED THROUGH DAWN. LOW TEMPS ARE A MAV/MET BLEND, NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THERE IS OPERATIONAL MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL
SHIFT FROM WEST-NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY. 850MB TEMPS WILL COOL TO -11C TO -13C ACROSS THE NORTH AND
INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL BE ABOVE 7KFT WITH THE BEST TIME FOR
ACCUMULATION FOR LAKE EFFECT BEING SUNDAY MORNING. INVERSION
HEIGHTS LOWER INTO THE AFTERNOON AND WILL LIMIT LAKE EFFECT
ACCUMULATION. THE FLOW WILL GET MORE OF A NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO IT
AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES IN. WITH THE FRONT, THE NAM 4KM
SIMULATED RADAR INDICATES A BAND SLIDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS IS HIGHLIGHTED WITH LIKELY POPS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING. ACCUMULATIONS SUNDAY WILL AMOUNT TO 1 TO 2
INCHES ACROSS THE LAKE EFFECT ZONES AND EASTERN RIDGES WITH
GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS ELSEWHERE. WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION
ONGOING THROUGHOUT THE DAY, HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...UNCERTAINTY ENTERS THE FORECAST
AS A THE FRONT SLIDES SOUTH OF THE AREA AND A CLIPPER PASSES
SOUTH OF THE AREA EARLY ON MONDAY. MID-LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING THE
AREA MAY PROVIDE FORCING FOR SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY, ALTHOUGH HAVE
LIMITED POPS TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH WITH SCHC NORTHWARD.
FOLLOWING THIS SYSTEM, A MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL ALLOW FOR A DRY FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AS HIGH
PRESSURE REINFORCES THE ARCTIC AIR MASS ON MONDAY. WARMING 850
TEMPS AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RECOVER QUICKLY ON
TUESDAY, WARMING TO AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL PUSH FARTHER OFFSHORE
WEDNESDAY. LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW COLD FRONT ARRIVING FROM THE
PLAINS SLIGHTLY LATER THAN YESTERDAYS RUNS...AND HAVE KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN FOR PITTSBURGH SOUTH AND EAST THURSDAY. 12Z GFS HAS
COME MORE IN LINE WITH OTHER GUIDANCE...WITH A NORTH-SOUTH
ORIENTATION AND THE FRONT MAKING SLOW PROGRESS. WITH THE SLOW PACE
OF THE FRONT...HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS EVERYWHERE THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. LITTLE MODEL AGREEMENT ON SATURDAY...AND HAVE
JUST GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH A DECREASE TOWARDS
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERCAST SKIES WILL SLOWLY OVERTAKE DUJ...LBE...AND MGW THIS
AFTERNOON. ALL SITES WILL BE OVERCAST WITH LOW VFR CIGS. SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN REPORTED AT YNG AND UCP...BUT DO NOT THINK
THIS WILL MAKE IT TO ANY TAF SITES. AFTER SUNSET...VFR CIGS WILL
SLIGHTLY RISE FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. W-SW WINDS WILL BE THE
BIGGEST AVIATION CONCERN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH WIDESPREAD 30
KT GUSTS. MGW WILL LIKELY HAVE LIGHTER WIND GUSTS...AROUND 25
KTS...WITH FKL AND DUJ CLOSER TO 35 KTS. WINDS WILL DROP TO 10-12
KTS SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM ARRIVING SUNDAY MORNING
WILL BRING MVFR CIGS AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. AT THIS POINT...DO NOT
EXPECT ANY IFR VISIBILITIES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
IFR WEATHER IS POSSIBLE PRIMARILY AT FKL AND DUJ SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN
SNOW SHOWERS...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT IFR AT OTHER SITES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN
MONDAY...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. A
COLD FRONT COULD BRING RESTRICTIONS IN RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$










AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PITTSBURGH PA

 338 PM EST SAT MAR 3 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL PASS
SOUTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH TRAILING HIGH
PRESSURE ALLOWING FOR A DRY MID-WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE LATEST RUC MID-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A CLOSED 500MB LOW
ACROSS QUEBEC WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE
ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. 1000-800MB LAYER MOISTURE IS
ADVECTING IN FROM THE WEST WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WEST OF A
LATROBE-MORGANTOWN LINE. AT THE SURFACE, A 982MB LOW IS
LOCATED IN QUEBEC WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH OF THIS
FEATURE ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE US. A FEW FLURRIES ARE PASSING
NORTH OF THE PITTSBURGH METRO AS WEAK MID-LEVEL VORT ENERGY SLIDES
ACROSS THE AREA. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS IN PLACE BETWEEN THE LOW
AND A HIGH ACROSS THE PLAINS HAS ALLOWED FOR WINDS GUSTING AT 30
TO 40 MPH.

TONIGHT...WINDS WILL SUBSIDE WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING.
THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL SHIFT FROM WESTERLY TO WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY, WITH THE CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS RETURNING ALONG THE
I-80 CORRIDOR BY 06Z SUNDAY. LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED THROUGH DAWN. LOW TEMPS ARE A MAV/MET BLEND, NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THERE IS OPERATIONAL MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL
SHIFT FROM WEST-NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY. 850MB TEMPS WILL COOL TO -11C TO -13C ACROSS THE NORTH AND
INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL BE ABOVE 7KFT WITH THE BEST TIME FOR
ACCUMULATION FOR LAKE EFFECT BEING SUNDAY MORNING. INVERSION
HEIGHTS LOWER INTO THE AFTERNOON AND WILL LIMIT LAKE EFFECT
ACCUMULATION. THE FLOW WILL GET MORE OF A NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO IT
AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES IN. WITH THE FRONT, THE NAM 4KM
SIMULATED RADAR INDICATES A BAND SLIDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS IS HIGHLIGHTED WITH LIKELY POPS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING. ACCUMULATIONS SUNDAY WILL AMOUNT TO 1 TO 2
INCHES ACROSS THE LAKE EFFECT ZONES AND EASTERN RIDGES WITH
GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS ELSEWHERE. WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION
ONGOING THROUGHOUT THE DAY, HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...UNCERTAINTY ENTERS THE FORECAST
AS A THE FRONT SLIDES SOUTH OF THE AREA AND A CLIPPER PASSES
SOUTH OF THE AREA EARLY ON MONDAY. MID-LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING THE
AREA MAY PROVIDE FORCING FOR SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY, ALTHOUGH HAVE
LIMITED POPS TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH WITH SCHC NORTHWARD.
FOLLOWING THIS SYSTEM, A MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL ALLOW FOR A DRY FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AS HIGH
PRESSURE REINFORCES THE ARCTIC AIR MASS ON MONDAY. WARMING 850
TEMPS AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RECOVER QUICKLY ON
TUESDAY, WARMING TO AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL PUSH FARTHER OFFSHORE
WEDNESDAY. LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW COLD FRONT ARRIVING FROM THE
PLAINS SLIGHTLY LATER THAN YESTERDAYS RUNS...AND HAVE KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN FOR PITTSBURGH SOUTH AND EAST THURSDAY. 12Z GFS HAS
COME MORE IN LINE WITH OTHER GUIDANCE...WITH A NORTH-SOUTH
ORIENTATION AND THE FRONT MAKING SLOW PROGRESS. WITH THE SLOW PACE
OF THE FRONT...HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS EVERYWHERE THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. LITTLE MODEL AGREEMENT ON SATURDAY...AND HAVE
JUST GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH A DECREASE TOWARDS
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERCAST SKIES WILL SLOWLY OVERTAKE DUJ...LBE...AND MGW THIS
AFTERNOON. ALL SITES WILL BE OVERCAST WITH LOW VFR CIGS. SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN REPORTED AT YNG AND UCP...BUT DO NOT THINK
THIS WILL MAKE IT TO ANY TAF SITES. AFTER SUNSET...VFR CIGS WILL
SLIGHTLY RISE FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. W-SW WINDS WILL BE THE
BIGGEST AVIATION CONCERN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH WIDESPREAD 30
KT GUSTS. MGW WILL LIKELY HAVE LIGHTER WIND GUSTS...AROUND 25
KTS...WITH FKL AND DUJ CLOSER TO 35 KTS. WINDS WILL DROP TO 10-12
KTS SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM ARRIVING SUNDAY MORNING
WILL BRING MVFR CIGS AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. AT THIS POINT...DO NOT
EXPECT ANY IFR VISIBILITIES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
IFR WEATHER IS POSSIBLE PRIMARILY AT FKL AND DUJ SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN
SNOW SHOWERS...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT IFR AT OTHER SITES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN
MONDAY...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. A
COLD FRONT COULD BRING RESTRICTIONS IN RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PITTSBURGH PA

 119 PM EST SAT MAR 3 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN COLDER AIR TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY. A COLD WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OFF OF THE LAKES WILL
ALLOW FOR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A
CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH TRAILING HIGH PRESSURE ALLOWING FOR A DRY MID-WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A QUICK UPDATE HAS BEEN ISSUED TO CANCEL THE WIND ADVISORY AND TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST TRENDS IN TEMP AND SKY GRIDS.

THE LATEST RUC MID-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A CLOSED 500MB LOW
ACROSS QUEBEC WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. 1000-800MB LAYER MOISTURE IS ADVECTING IN
FROM THE WEST WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WEST OF A LATROBE-
NEW MARTINSVILLE LINE. AT THE SURFACE, A 982MB LOW IS LOCATED IN
QUEBEC WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE ALONG
THE EAST COAST OF THE US. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS IN PLACE
BETWEEN THE LOW AND A HIGH ACROSS THE PLAINS HAS ALLOWED FOR WINDS
GUSTING AT 30 TO 40 MPH.

THIS AFTERNOON...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT INTO
THE AREA WITH CLOUD COVERAGE INCREASING FROM THE WEST. BUFKIT DIURNAL
MIXING SUPPORTS WIND GUSTS CONTINUING TO GUST AT 30 TO 40
MPH. THUS, THE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED. WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES EARLY TODAY, TEMPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED A FEW DEGREES ACROSS
NORTH-CENTRAL WV.

TONIGHT...WINDS WILL SUBSIDE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL SHIFT FROM WESTERLY TO WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY, WITH THE CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS RETURNING ALONG THE
I-80 CORRIDOR BY 06Z SUNDAY. LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED THROUGH DAWN. LOW TEMPS ARE A MAV/MET BLEND, NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A COLD WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH 850 TEMPS AT -12C TO -14C WILL
ALLOW FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE. LIKELY POPS ARE
FORECAST ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR AND EASTERN RIDGES WITH CHANCE
POPS ELSEWHERE. AN ASSOCIATED TROF REFLECTED AT BOTH 850 AND THE
SURFACE SHOULD HELP ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS SOMEWHAT. FETCH OFF OF
THE LAKES WILL EVENTUALLY CUT OFF AS 850 RIDGE APPROACHES ON
MONDAY. SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE I80 AND NORTH AND
MOUNTAINS...ELSEWHERE LIGHT AMOUNTS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS
INTO AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. SOUTHWEST
FLOW TO INCREASE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH INCREASE IN WINDS.
PROBABLY GUSTY ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. NEXT FRONT APPROACHES EARLY
THURSDAY WITH CHANCE SHOWERS. DISCREPANCY BETWEEN ECMWF AND GFS ON
HANDLING NEXT FRONT. GFS BRINGS IN PRECIPITATION THURSDAY MORNING
AND EVENTUALLY LAYS FRONT OUT EAST TO WEST AND HANGS ACROSS
SOUTHERN PORTION AREA BEFORE HIGH BUILDS IN ON SATURDAY.
MEANWHILE, ECMWF HAS SLOWER EASTWARD PROGRESSION WITH APPROACH TO
CWA ON FRIDAY AND KEEPS SHOWERS IN THROUGH THE DAY WITH SLOWER
EXIT AND RETARDS SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING INTO AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERCAST SKIES WILL SLOWLY OVERTAKE DUJ...LBE...AND MGW THIS
AFTERNOON. ALL SITES WILL BE OVERCAST WITH LOW VFR CIGS. SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN REPORTED AT YNG AND UCP...BUT DO NOT THINK
THIS WILL MAKE IT TO ANY TAF SITES. AFTER SUNSET...VFR CIGS WILL
SLIGHTLY RISE FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. W-SW WINDS WILL BE THE
BIGGEST AVIATION CONCERN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH WIDESPREAD 30
KT GUSTS. MGW WILL LIKELY HAVE LIGHTER WIND GUSTS...AROUND 25
KTS...WITH FKL AND DUJ CLOSER TO 35 KTS. WINDS WILL DROP TO 10-12
KTS SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM ARRIVING SUNDAY MORNING
WILL BRING MVFR CIGS AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. AT THIS POINT...DO NOT
EXPECT ANY IFR VISIBILITIES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
IFR WEATHER IS POSSIBLE PRIMARILY AT FKL AND DUJ SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN
SNOW SHOWERS...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT IFR AT OTHER SITES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN
MONDAY...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. A
COLD FRONT COULD BRING RESTRICTIONS IN RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PITTSBURGH PA

 1042 AM EST SAT MAR 3 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN COLDER AIR TODAY
AND SUNDAY. A COLD WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OFF OF THE LAKES WILL
ALLOW FOR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A
CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH TRAILING HIGH PRESSURE ALLOWING FOR A DRY MID-WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
15Z ENHANCED SHORT TERM FORECAST UPDATE HAS BEEN ISSUED TO
INCREASE CLOUD COVERAGE ACROSS EASTERN OHIO AND WESTERN PA AS A
STRATOCUMULUS DECK WORKS INTO THE AREA. LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
GOING FORECAST OTHERWISE.

THE LATEST RUC MID-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A CLOSED 500MB LOW
ACROSS ONTARIO WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. 1000-800MB LAYER MOISTURE IS ADVECTING IN
FROM THE WEST WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WEST OF PITTSBURGH. AT THE
SURFACE, A 982MB LOW IS LOCATED IN QUEBEC WITH A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE US. A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS IN PLACE BETWEEN THE LOW AND A HIGH
ACROSS THE PLAINS HAS ALLOWED FOR WINDS GUSTING AT 25 TO 35 MPH
THIS MORNING.

THIS AFTERNOON...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT INTO
THE AREA WITH CLOUD COVERAGE INCREASING FROM THE WEST. DIURNAL
MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR WIND GUSTS TO INCREASE. THE NAM BUFKIT
SOUNDING IS STILL NOT RULING OUT A FEW GUSTS THAT WILL BE
MARGINALLY NEAR WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS THE LOWLANDS. THUS,
A LOW-END WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE. TEMP TRENDS REMAIN ON
TRACK, A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN LAMP GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY.

TONIGHT...WINDS WILL SUBSIDE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
CLOUDS INCREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AHEAD OF A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WITHIN BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW. THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL SHIFT FROM WESTERLY TO WEST-NORTHWESTERLY,
WITH THE CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS RETURNING ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR
BY 06Z SUNDAY. LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH
DAWN. LOW TEMPS ARE A MAV/MET BLEND, NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A COLD WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH 850 TEMPS AT -12C TO -14C WILL
ALLOW FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE. LIKELY POPS ARE
FORECAST ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR AND EASTERN RIDGES WITH CHANCE
POPS ELSEWHERE. AN ASSOCIATED TROF REFLECTED AT BOTH 850 AND THE
SURFACE SHOULD HELP ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS SOMEWHAT. FETCH OFF OF
THE LAKES WILL EVENTUALLY CUT OFF AS 850 RIDGE APPROACHES ON
MONDAY. SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE I80 AND NORTH AND
MOUNTAINS...ELSEWHERE LIGHT AMOUNTS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS
INTO AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. SOUTHWEST
FLOW TO INCREASE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH INCREASE IN WINDS.
PROBABLY GUSTY ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. NEXT FRONT APPROACHES EARLY
THURSDAY WITH CHANCE SHOWERS. DISCREPANCY BETWEEN ECMWF AND GFS ON
HANDLING NEXT FRONT. GFS BRINGS IN PRECIPITATION THURSDAY MORNING
AND EVENTUALLY LAYS FRONT OUT EAST TO WEST AND HANGS ACROSS
SOUTHERN PORTION AREA BEFORE HIGH BUILDS IN ON SATURDAY.
MEANWHILE, ECMWF HAS SLOWER EASTWARD PROGRESSION WITH APPROACH TO
CWA ON FRIDAY AND KEEPS SHOWERS IN THROUGH THE DAY WITH SLOWER
EXIT AND RETARDS SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING INTO AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ALL SITES WILL BE OVERCAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH LOW VFR CIGS
PREDICTED THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS. AFTER SUNSET...VFR CIGS WILL
RISE FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. W-SW WINDS WILL BE THE BIGGEST
AVIATION CONCERN THROUGH THE TIME PERIOD...WITH WIDESPREAD 30 KT
GUSTS. MGW WILL LIKELY HAVE LIGHTER WIND GUSTS...AROUND 25
KTS...WITH FKL AND DUJ CLOSER TO 35 KTS.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
IFR WX POSSIBLE AT FKL AND DUJ SUNDAY IN SNOW SHOWERS...OTHERWISE
NO OTHER WIDESPREAD IFR WX PREDICTED.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ001.
OH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR OHZ039>041-
     048>050-057>059-068-069.
PA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PAZ007>009-
     013>016-020>023-029-031-073-075.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ074-076.
WV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WVZ001>004-012-
     021-022.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ023-041.

&&

$$







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

 1226 PM EST SAT MAR 3 2012

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1225 PM EST SAT MAR 3 2012

HAD TO PUT OUT A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FOR KEWEENAW...NORTHERN
HOUGHTON AND BARAGA COUNTIES AS HEAVIER SNOW TOTALS HAVE STARTED TO
COME IN WITH CLOSE TO 6 INCHES IN L`ANSE AND 5 INCHES IN MOHAWK.
WITH FAVORABLE NORTH WIND CONTINUING...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL
PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT WITH THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW. RADAR TRENDS ARE
SHOWING THE SNOW LETTING UP...SO DID NOT OPT TO GO WITH A WARNING
FOR THAT AREA.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 533 AM EST SAT MAR 3 2012

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A TROUGH DOMINATING THE CNTRL
CONUS. A POTENT MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS LOCATED OVER NRN LAKE HURON.
THE STRONG FGEN/DEFORMATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WAS QUICKLY
SLIDING TO THE EAST THROUGH NRN LAKE HURON. HOWEVER A LARGE SHIELD
OF PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH 285K-295 ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND 700-300 MB
QVECTOR CONV CONTINUED ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND UPPER MICHIGAN.
RADAR ALSO SHOWED HIGHER RETURNS INTO N CNTRL UPPER MICHIGAN WHERE
NRLY FLOW UPSLOPE AND LAKE ENHANCEMENT (850 MB TEMPS AROUND -8C)
HAVE BOOSTED SNOWFALL RATES. AT THE SFC...A 979 MB LOW WAS LOCATED
OVER GEORGIAN BAY SUPPORTED STRONG NRLY WINDS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
INTO UPPER MICHIGAN. SINCE THE SNOW TOTAL AT THE NWS OFFICE HAD
REACHED 5 INCHES BY 0930Z AND SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS WERE
EXPECTED TODAY...UPGRADED THE ADVY TO A WARNING FOR MARQUETTE
COUNTY.

TODAY...EXPECT THE SYNOPTIC SCALE UPWARD MOTION AND PCPN SHIELD TO
GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS MORNING AS THE MID LEVEL LOW SHIFTS TO THE
EAST. HOWEVER...WITH DEEP MOISTURE PERSISTING OVER THE AREA ALONG
WITH CAA DROPPING 850 MB TEMPS TO AROUND -15C BY 18Z...TRANSITION
TOWARD LAKE ENHANCED/EFFECT WILL KEEP AT LEAST MODERATE SNOWFALL
RATES GOING THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE 3 TO 5
INCH RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EAST AND HIGHER
TERRAIN IN N CNTRL UPPER MI. OVER THE WEST...LIGHT LAKE
ENHANCED/EFFECT SNOW WILL ALSO CONTINUE WITH LOWER AMOUNTS IN THE 1
TO 3 INCH RANGE. TO THE SOUTH...THE SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF THIS
MORNING WITH MAINLY JUST SCT -SHSN BY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE STRONG
925 MB WINDS OF 30-35 KTS MAY KEEP ACCUMULATING SNOW GOING INTO NE
AND ERN DELTA COUNTY...FARTHER TO THE SW NEAR ESC...ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL SHOULD BE MINIMAL. DRIER SFC-800 MB LAYER AIR MOVING IN FROM
THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON WILL BRING AN OVERALL DIMINISHING TREND WITH
THE LES.

TONIGHT...LES WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE AS A RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS DIMINISHING AND BECOMING MORE ACYC.
SINCE LIGHT TO OCNLY MODERATE SNOW MAY CONTINUE NORTH...ALLOWED WARNING
TO REMAIN IN PLACE. HOWEVER...IF SNOWFALL TRENDS DROP OFF ENOUGH AND
THE DRY AIR MOVES IN MORE AGGRESSIVELY...THE WARNINGS OVER THE NORTH
MAY BE DROPPED EARLY.

SUNDAY...ANY REMAINING N TO NE FLOW LIGHT LES SHOULD DIMINISH SUNDAY
MORNING AS INVERSION HEIGHTS DROP TO AROUND 3K FT AND LOW LEVEL WIND
FIELDS BECOME WEAK AND DISORGANIZED.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 533 AM EST SAT MAR 3 2012

GOOD AGREEMENT FM THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN LARGE SCALE PATTERN
LATER THIS WEEKEND THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. COLD
TROUGH STICKS AROUND INITIALLY THROUGH SUNDAY. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS
AND SUFFICIENTLY COLD AIR IN LOW-LEVELS SHOULD KEEP SCATTERED LIGHT
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES GOING ALONG MUCH OF LK SUPERIOR.
DESPITE H85 TEMPS AS LOW AS -16C...ACCUMS SHOULD END UP QUITE LIGHT
AS LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE WEAK AND ANTICYCLONIC. HEADING INTO MONDAY
THE SFC RIDGE OVR ONTARIO FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND SETTLES INTO THE
CNTRL AND LOWER GREAT LAKES. RIDGE MOVING EAST AND TROUGH PUSHING
ACROSS SCNTRL CANADA ALLOWS BLYR WINDS TO BECOME MORE SWRLY AND
FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR TO END. INDICATIONS THAT PLENTY OF CLOUDS MAY
REMAIN TRAPPED BENEATH DEVELOPING WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN. KEPT
SKIES PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE
UPR 20S/LOWER 30S.

FOR THE EXTENDED...
WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME CONTINUES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. EARLY ON
AS STRONGER SFC LOW SLIDES ACROSS SOUTHERN TIER OF CANADA THERE
COULD BE SOME LGT SNOW TRY TO BREAK OUT OVR PORTIONS OF CWA. ECMWF
AND CANADIAN FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE SNOW WHILE GFS/NAM KEEP MAJORITY
OF SNOW OVR LK SUPERIOR AND INTO ONTARIO. MIDDLE ROAD APPROACH FOR
NOW GIVEN STRENGTH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AND LOOK OF GFS/ECMWF LOWER
H85 DWPNT DEPRESSIONS. BETTER CHANCE OF LGT SNOW OVR THE CWA WOULD
BE MONDAY EVENING ON THE KEWEENAW AND LATER AT NIGHT OVR THE FAR
NORTHEAST CWA. WENT FOR MORE CLOUDS THAN GUIDANCE INTO TUESDAY
WITH SOUNDINGS SHOWING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BENEATH THE STRENGTHENING
INVERSION /H85 TEMPS PUSHING TOWARD +5C ON TUESDAY/. HIGHS ON
TUESDAY WILL BE WARM BUT COULD BE TEMPERED A BIT BY THE CLOUDS.
EVEN SO...A SHALLOW MIXING HEIGHT OF ONLY 950MB YIELDS HIGHS OVR
40 DEGREES. LEANED MORE TOWARD PREVIOUS FCST WITH MID 40S ALONG LK
SUPERIOR SHORE NW AND NCNTRL GIVEN SW WIND DIRECTION. IF WE DO SEE
SUNSHINE...HIGHER SUN ANGLE AND DENSELY FORESTED LANDSCAPE/LOWER
ALBEDO WOULD OFFSET RECENT SNOWFALL AND COULD ALLOW FOR ISOLD 50
DEGREE READINGS. SFC DWPNTS INTO THE MID 30S AND MAYBE EVEN HIGHER
FCST TO SURGE INTO UPR LAKES LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. HAVE
ADDED FOG TO FCST MAINLY OVER INLAND AREAS WHERE TEMPS COULD DIP THE
LOWEST. AT THE LEAST...SEEMS LIKE GOOD SETUP FOR PLENTY OF STRATUS.
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO BE ISSUE FOR LATER TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. VERY STABLE PROFILE IN LOW-LEVELS BUT EVEN SFC-BLYR
WINDS OFF MODELS POINT TO SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS NEAR GREAT LAKE
SHORES GUSTING TO 30-35 MPH ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW COLD FRONT WORKING THROUGH UPR LAKES ON
WEDNESDAY AND NOW IT SEEMS LIKE TREND IS QUICKER IN BRINGING COLDER
AIR INTO WESTERN CWA. GFS SOUNDINGS AT IWD/CMX ARE ESSENTIALLY BLO
0C AS EARLY AS MID MORNING ON WEDNESDAY AND ECMWF LENDS SUPPORT TO
COLDER SCENARIO AS WELL. KEPT MIX OF RAIN/SNOW FOR CNTRL AND EAST...
BUT WENT WITH MAINLY SNOW IN THE WEST. MODEL CONSENSUS WOULD POINT
TO ADVY SNOW ACCUMS IN SOME AREAS OF THE WEST AND CENTRAL...BUT
HIGHER CERTAINTY IN THIS IDEA NOT THERE QUITE YET AS MODELS HAVE
BEEN JUMPING AROUND WITH EXTENT OF UPR WAVE LIFTING ALONG FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY AND HOW FAR WEST TO HAVE THIS WAVE. DO HAVE LIKELY POPS
NOW OVR THE EAST HALF OF THE CWA WHERE WAVE IS MOST LIKELY TO TRACK
AT THIS POINT. GRADUALLY COOLER AIR SETTLES INTO UPR LAKES TO CLOSE
THE WEEK. SOME LK EFFECT COULD OCCUR...THOUGH THERE ARE DIFFERENCES
IN GUIDANCE ON GENERAL WIND DIRECTION. NO NEED TO STRAY FM CONSENSUS
APPROACH FOR NOW...WHICH RESULTS IN SLIGHT CHANCES OF SNOW SHOWERS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1146 AM EST SAT MAR 3 2012

SAW...WITH STRONG NRLY WINDS AND COLDER AND DRIER AIR MOVING IN THIS
AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH...SO CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
TO MVFR LATE THIS AFTERNOON FROM IFR. SOME LIGHT LES WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD WITH MVFR CONDITIONS.

CMX/IWD...ALTHOUGH THESE LOCATIONS ARE FARTHER W OF THE DEPARTING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CYCLONIC NNE FLOW WILL SUPPORT SOME -SN AND
IFR/OCNL MVFR CONDITIONS. THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR AND WEAKENING
CYCLONIC FLOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL CAUSE CONDITIONS TO
IMPROVE TO MVFR.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 533 AM EST SAT MAR 3 2012
NORTH GALES WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS LAKE SUPERIOR IS ON NORTHWEST
FRINGE OF STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO QUEBEC. GALES
DIMINISH TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER ONTARIO
SLIDES INTO THE REGION. ONCE RIDGE SLIDES OUT TO THE EAST ON MONDAY
A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE IS FCST TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN TIER OF
CANADA. TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT BTWN THE RIDGE AND THE APPROACHING
LOW MAY LEAD TO 30 KT SOUTHERLY WINDS OVR EAST HALF OF LK SUPERIOR
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. STABILITY IS HIGH...BUT IF PRESSURE
FALLS NORTH OF LK SUPERIOR ARE STRONG ENOUGH...COULD SEE GALE GUSTS
OVR EASTERN LK SUPERIOR. COLD FRONT WORKS ACROSS ON WEDNESDAY.
NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY WINDS IN WAKE OF THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BLO 25 KTS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MIZ001-003-
     004.

  WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ013-014.

  WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MIZ005-006-085.

  WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MIZ007.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     LSZ243>245-248>251-263>267.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ244-245-248>251-
     264>267.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ263.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...07
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLA







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS MARQUETTE MI

 1147 AM EST SAT MAR 3 2012

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 533 AM EST SAT MAR 3 2012

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A TROUGH DOMINATING THE CNTRL
CONUS. A POTENT MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS LOCATED OVER NRN LAKE HURON.
THE STRONG FGEN/DEFORMATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WAS QUICKLY
SLIDING TO THE EAST THROUGH NRN LAKE HURON. HOWEVER A LARGE SHIELD
OF PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH 285K-295 ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND 700-300 MB
QVECTOR CONV CONTINUED ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND UPPER MICHIGAN.
RADAR ALSO SHOWED HIGHER RETURNS INTO N CNTRL UPPER MICHIGAN WHERE
NRLY FLOW UPSLOPE AND LAKE ENHANCEMENT (850 MB TEMPS AROUND -8C)
HAVE BOOSTED SNOWFALL RATES. AT THE SFC...A 979 MB LOW WAS LOCATED
OVER GEORGIAN BAY SUPPORTED STRONG NRLY WINDS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
INTO UPPER MICHIGAN. SINCE THE SNOW TOTAL AT THE NWS OFFICE HAD
REACHED 5 INCHES BY 0930Z AND SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS WERE
EXPECTED TODAY...UPGRADED THE ADVY TO A WARNING FOR MARQUETTE
COUNTY.

TODAY...EXPECT THE SYNOPTIC SCALE UPWARD MOTION AND PCPN SHIELD TO
GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS MORNING AS THE MID LEVEL LOW SHIFTS TO THE
EAST. HOWEVER...WITH DEEP MOISTURE PERSISTING OVER THE AREA ALONG
WITH CAA DROPPING 850 MB TEMPS TO AROUND -15C BY 18Z...TRANSITION
TOWARD LAKE ENHANCED/EFFECT WILL KEEP AT LEAST MODERATE SNOWFALL
RATES GOING THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE 3 TO 5
INCH RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EAST AND HIGHER
TERRAIN IN N CNTRL UPPER MI. OVER THE WEST...LIGHT LAKE
ENHANCED/EFFECT SNOW WILL ALSO CONTINUE WITH LOWER AMOUNTS IN THE 1
TO 3 INCH RANGE. TO THE SOUTH...THE SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF THIS
MORNING WITH MAINLY JUST SCT -SHSN BY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE STRONG
925 MB WINDS OF 30-35 KTS MAY KEEP ACCUMULATING SNOW GOING INTO NE
AND ERN DELTA COUNTY...FARTHER TO THE SW NEAR ESC...ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL SHOULD BE MINIMAL. DRIER SFC-800 MB LAYER AIR MOVING IN FROM
THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON WILL BRING AN OVERALL DIMINISHING TREND WITH
THE LES.

TONIGHT...LES WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE AS A RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS DIMINISHING AND BECOMING MORE ACYC.
SINCE LIGHT TO OCNLY MODERATE SNOW MAY CONTINUE NORTH...ALLOWED WARNING
TO REMAIN IN PLACE. HOWEVER...IF SNOWFALL TRENDS DROP OFF ENOUGH AND
THE DRY AIR MOVES IN MORE AGGRESSIVELY...THE WARNINGS OVER THE NORTH
MAY BE DROPPED EARLY.

SUNDAY...ANY REMAINING N TO NE FLOW LIGHT LES SHOULD DIMINISH SUNDAY
MORNING AS INVERSION HEIGHTS DROP TO AROUND 3K FT AND LOW LEVEL WIND
FIELDS BECOME WEAK AND DISORGANIZED.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 533 AM EST SAT MAR 3 2012

GOOD AGREEMENT FM THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN LARGE SCALE PATTERN
LATER THIS WEEKEND THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. COLD
TROUGH STICKS AROUND INITIALLY THROUGH SUNDAY. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS
AND SUFFICIENTLY COLD AIR IN LOW-LEVELS SHOULD KEEP SCATTERED LIGHT
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES GOING ALONG MUCH OF LK SUPERIOR.
DESPITE H85 TEMPS AS LOW AS -16C...ACCUMS SHOULD END UP QUITE LIGHT
AS LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE WEAK AND ANTICYCLONIC. HEADING INTO MONDAY
THE SFC RIDGE OVR ONTARIO FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND SETTLES INTO THE
CNTRL AND LOWER GREAT LAKES. RIDGE MOVING EAST AND TROUGH PUSHING
ACROSS SCNTRL CANADA ALLOWS BLYR WINDS TO BECOME MORE SWRLY AND
FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR TO END. INDICATIONS THAT PLENTY OF CLOUDS MAY
REMAIN TRAPPED BENEATH DEVELOPING WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN. KEPT
SKIES PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE
UPR 20S/LOWER 30S.

FOR THE EXTENDED...
WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME CONTINUES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. EARLY ON
AS STRONGER SFC LOW SLIDES ACROSS SOUTHERN TIER OF CANADA THERE
COULD BE SOME LGT SNOW TRY TO BREAK OUT OVR PORTIONS OF CWA. ECMWF
AND CANADIAN FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE SNOW WHILE GFS/NAM KEEP MAJORITY
OF SNOW OVR LK SUPERIOR AND INTO ONTARIO. MIDDLE ROAD APPROACH FOR
NOW GIVEN STRENGTH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AND LOOK OF GFS/ECMWF LOWER
H85 DWPNT DEPRESSIONS. BETTER CHANCE OF LGT SNOW OVR THE CWA WOULD
BE MONDAY EVENING ON THE KEWEENAW AND LATER AT NIGHT OVR THE FAR
NORTHEAST CWA. WENT FOR MORE CLOUDS THAN GUIDANCE INTO TUESDAY
WITH SOUNDINGS SHOWING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BENEATH THE STRENGTHENING
INVERSION /H85 TEMPS PUSHING TOWARD +5C ON TUESDAY/. HIGHS ON
TUESDAY WILL BE WARM BUT COULD BE TEMPERED A BIT BY THE CLOUDS.
EVEN SO...A SHALLOW MIXING HEIGHT OF ONLY 950MB YIELDS HIGHS OVR
40 DEGREES. LEANED MORE TOWARD PREVIOUS FCST WITH MID 40S ALONG LK
SUPERIOR SHORE NW AND NCNTRL GIVEN SW WIND DIRECTION. IF WE DO SEE
SUNSHINE...HIGHER SUN ANGLE AND DENSELY FORESTED LANDSCAPE/LOWER
ALBEDO WOULD OFFSET RECENT SNOWFALL AND COULD ALLOW FOR ISOLD 50
DEGREE READINGS. SFC DWPNTS INTO THE MID 30S AND MAYBE EVEN HIGHER
FCST TO SURGE INTO UPR LAKES LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. HAVE
ADDED FOG TO FCST MAINLY OVER INLAND AREAS WHERE TEMPS COULD DIP THE
LOWEST. AT THE LEAST...SEEMS LIKE GOOD SETUP FOR PLENTY OF STRATUS.
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO BE ISSUE FOR LATER TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. VERY STABLE PROFILE IN LOW-LEVELS BUT EVEN SFC-BLYR
WINDS OFF MODELS POINT TO SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS NEAR GREAT LAKE
SHORES GUSTING TO 30-35 MPH ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW COLD FRONT WORKING THROUGH UPR LAKES ON
WEDNESDAY AND NOW IT SEEMS LIKE TREND IS QUICKER IN BRINGING COLDER
AIR INTO WESTERN CWA. GFS SOUNDINGS AT IWD/CMX ARE ESSENTIALLY BLO
0C AS EARLY AS MID MORNING ON WEDNESDAY AND ECMWF LENDS SUPPORT TO
COLDER SCENARIO AS WELL. KEPT MIX OF RAIN/SNOW FOR CNTRL AND EAST...
BUT WENT WITH MAINLY SNOW IN THE WEST. MODEL CONSENSUS WOULD POINT
TO ADVY SNOW ACCUMS IN SOME AREAS OF THE WEST AND CENTRAL...BUT
HIGHER CERTAINTY IN THIS IDEA NOT THERE QUITE YET AS MODELS HAVE
BEEN JUMPING AROUND WITH EXTENT OF UPR WAVE LIFTING ALONG FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY AND HOW FAR WEST TO HAVE THIS WAVE. DO HAVE LIKELY POPS
NOW OVR THE EAST HALF OF THE CWA WHERE WAVE IS MOST LIKELY TO TRACK
AT THIS POINT. GRADUALLY COOLER AIR SETTLES INTO UPR LAKES TO CLOSE
THE WEEK. SOME LK EFFECT COULD OCCUR...THOUGH THERE ARE DIFFERENCES
IN GUIDANCE ON GENERAL WIND DIRECTION. NO NEED TO STRAY FM CONSENSUS
APPROACH FOR NOW...WHICH RESULTS IN SLIGHT CHANCES OF SNOW SHOWERS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1146 AM EST SAT MAR 3 2012

SAW...WITH STRONG NRLY WINDS AND COLDER AND DRIER AIR MOVING IN THIS
AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH...SO CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
TO MVFR LATE THIS AFTERNOON FROM IFR. SOME LIGHT LES WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD WITH MVFR CONDITIONS.

CMX/IWD...ALTHOUGH THESE LOCATIONS ARE FARTHER W OF THE DEPARTING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CYCLONIC NNE FLOW WILL SUPPORT SOME -SN AND
IFR/OCNL MVFR CONDITIONS. THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR AND WEAKENING
CYCLONIC FLOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL CAUSE CONDITIONS TO
IMPROVE TO MVFR.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 533 AM EST SAT MAR 3 2012
NORTH GALES WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS LAKE SUPERIOR IS ON NORTHWEST
FRINGE OF STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO QUEBEC. GALES
DIMINISH TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER ONTARIO
SLIDES INTO THE REGION. ONCE RIDGE SLIDES OUT TO THE EAST ON MONDAY
A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE IS FCST TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN TIER OF
CANADA. TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT BTWN THE RIDGE AND THE APPROACHING
LOW MAY LEAD TO 30 KT SOUTHERLY WINDS OVR EAST HALF OF LK SUPERIOR
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. STABILITY IS HIGH...BUT IF PRESSURE
FALLS NORTH OF LK SUPERIOR ARE STRONG ENOUGH...COULD SEE GALE GUSTS
OVR EASTERN LK SUPERIOR. COLD FRONT WORKS ACROSS ON WEDNESDAY.
NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY WINDS IN WAKE OF THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BLO 25 KTS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ013-014.

  WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MIZ007.

  WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MIZ005-006-085.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     LSZ243>245-248>251-263>267.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ244-245-248>251-
     264>267.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ263.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLA







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

 634 AM EST SAT MAR 3 2012

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 533 AM EST SAT MAR 3 2012

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A TROUGH DOMINATING THE CNTRL
CONUS. A POTENT MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS LOCATED OVER NRN LAKE HURON.
THE STRONG FGEN/DEFORMATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WAS QUICKLY
SLIDING TO THE EAST THROUGH NRN LAKE HURON. HOWEVER A LARGE SHIELD
OF PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH 285K-295 ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND 700-300 MB
QVECTOR CONV CONTINUED ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND UPPER MICHIGAN.
RADAR ALSO SHOWED HIGHER RETURNS INTO N CNTRL UPPER MICHIGAN WHERE
NRLY FLOW UPSLOPE AND LAKE ENHANCEMENT (850 MB TEMPS AROUND -8C)
HAVE BOOSTED SNOWFALL RATES. AT THE SFC...A 979 MB LOW WAS LOCATED
OVER GEORGIAN BAY SUPPORTED STRONG NRLY WINDS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
INTO UPPER MICHIGAN. SINCE THE SNOW TOTAL AT THE NWS OFFICE HAD
REACHED 5 INCHES BY 0930Z AND SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS WERE
EXPECTED TODAY...UPGRADED THE ADVY TO A WARNING FOR MARQUETTE
COUNTY.

TODAY...EXPECT THE SYNOPTIC SCALE UPWARD MOTION AND PCPN SHIELD TO
GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS MORNING AS THE MID LEVEL LOW SHIFTS TO THE
EAST. HOWEVER...WITH DEEP MOISTURE PERSISTING OVER THE AREA ALONG
WITH CAA DROPPING 850 MB TEMPS TO AROUND -15C BY 18Z...TRANSITION
TOWARD LAKE ENHANCED/EFFECT WILL KEEP AT LEAST MODERATE SNOWFALL
RATES GOING THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE 3 TO 5
INCH RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EAST AND HIGHER
TERRAIN IN N CNTRL UPPER MI. OVER THE WEST...LIGHT LAKE
ENHANCED/EFFECT SNOW WILL ALSO CONTINUE WITH LOWER AMOUNTS IN THE 1
TO 3 INCH RANGE. TO THE SOUTH...THE SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF THIS
MORNING WITH MAINLY JUST SCT -SHSN BY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE STRONG
925 MB WINDS OF 30-35 KTS MAY KEEP ACCUMULATING SNOW GOING INTO NE
AND ERN DELTA COUNTY...FARTHER TO THE SW NEAR ESC...ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL SHOULD BE MINIMAL. DRIER SFC-800 MB LAYER AIR MOVING IN FROM
THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON WILL BRING AN OVERALL DIMINISHING TREND WITH
THE LES.

TONIGHT...LES WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE AS A RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS DIMINISHING AND BECOMING MORE ACYC.
SINCE LIGHT TO OCNLY MODERATE SNOW MAY CONTINUE NORTH...ALLOWED WARNING
TO REMAIN IN PLACE. HOWEVER...IF SNOWFALL TRENDS DROP OFF ENOUGH AND
THE DRY AIR MOVES IN MORE AGGRESSIVELY...THE WARNINGS OVER THE NORTH
MAY BE DROPPED EARLY.

SUNDAY...ANY REMAINING N TO NE FLOW LIGHT LES SHOULD DIMINISH SUNDAY
MORNING AS INVERSION HEIGHTS DROP TO AROUND 3K FT AND LOW LEVEL WIND
FIELDS BECOME WEAK AND DISORGANIZED.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 533 AM EST SAT MAR 3 2012

GOOD AGREEMENT FM THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN LARGE SCALE PATTERN
LATER THIS WEEKEND THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. COLD
TROUGH STICKS AROUND INITIALLY THROUGH SUNDAY. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS
AND SUFFICIENTLY COLD AIR IN LOW-LEVELS SHOULD KEEP SCATTERED LIGHT
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES GOING ALONG MUCH OF LK SUPERIOR.
DESPITE H85 TEMPS AS LOW AS -16C...ACCUMS SHOULD END UP QUITE LIGHT
AS LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE WEAK AND ANTICYCLONIC. HEADING INTO MONDAY
THE SFC RIDGE OVR ONTARIO FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND SETTLES INTO THE
CNTRL AND LOWER GREAT LAKES. RIDGE MOVING EAST AND TROUGH PUSHING
ACROSS SCNTRL CANADA ALLOWS BLYR WINDS TO BECOME MORE SWRLY AND
FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR TO END. INDICATIONS THAT PLENTY OF CLOUDS MAY
REMAIN TRAPPED BENEATH DEVELOPING WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN. KEPT
SKIES PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE
UPR 20S/LOWER 30S.

FOR THE EXTENDED...
WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME CONTINUES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. EARLY ON
AS STRONGER SFC LOW SLIDES ACROSS SOUTHERN TIER OF CANADA THERE
COULD BE SOME LGT SNOW TRY TO BREAK OUT OVR PORTIONS OF CWA. ECMWF
AND CANADIAN FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE SNOW WHILE GFS/NAM KEEP MAJORITY
OF SNOW OVR LK SUPERIOR AND INTO ONTARIO. MIDDLE ROAD APPROACH FOR
NOW GIVEN STRENGTH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AND LOOK OF GFS/ECMWF LOWER
H85 DWPNT DEPRESSIONS. BETTER CHANCE OF LGT SNOW OVR THE CWA WOULD
BE MONDAY EVENING ON THE KEWEENAW AND LATER AT NIGHT OVR THE FAR
NORTHEAST CWA. WENT FOR MORE CLOUDS THAN GUIDANCE INTO TUESDAY
WITH SOUNDINGS SHOWING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BENEATH THE STRENGTHENING
INVERSION /H85 TEMPS PUSHING TOWARD +5C ON TUESDAY/. HIGHS ON
TUESDAY WILL BE WARM BUT COULD BE TEMPERED A BIT BY THE CLOUDS.
EVEN SO...A SHALLOW MIXING HEIGHT OF ONLY 950MB YIELDS HIGHS OVR
40 DEGREES. LEANED MORE TOWARD PREVIOUS FCST WITH MID 40S ALONG LK
SUPERIOR SHORE NW AND NCNTRL GIVEN SW WIND DIRECTION. IF WE DO SEE
SUNSHINE...HIGHER SUN ANGLE AND DENSELY FORESTED LANDSCAPE/LOWER
ALBEDO WOULD OFFSET RECENT SNOWFALL AND COULD ALLOW FOR ISOLD 50
DEGREE READINGS. SFC DWPNTS INTO THE MID 30S AND MAYBE EVEN HIGHER
FCST TO SURGE INTO UPR LAKES LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. HAVE
ADDED FOG TO FCST MAINLY OVER INLAND AREAS WHERE TEMPS COULD DIP THE
LOWEST. AT THE LEAST...SEEMS LIKE GOOD SETUP FOR PLENTY OF STRATUS.
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO BE ISSUE FOR LATER TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. VERY STABLE PROFILE IN LOW-LEVELS BUT EVEN SFC-BLYR
WINDS OFF MODELS POINT TO SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS NEAR GREAT LAKE
SHORES GUSTING TO 30-35 MPH ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW COLD FRONT WORKING THROUGH UPR LAKES ON
WEDNESDAY AND NOW IT SEEMS LIKE TREND IS QUICKER IN BRINGING COLDER
AIR INTO WESTERN CWA. GFS SOUNDINGS AT IWD/CMX ARE ESSENTIALLY BLO
0C AS EARLY AS MID MORNING ON WEDNESDAY AND ECMWF LENDS SUPPORT TO
COLDER SCENARIO AS WELL. KEPT MIX OF RAIN/SNOW FOR CNTRL AND EAST...
BUT WENT WITH MAINLY SNOW IN THE WEST. MODEL CONSENSUS WOULD POINT
TO ADVY SNOW ACCUMS IN SOME AREAS OF THE WEST AND CENTRAL...BUT
HIGHER CERTAINTY IN THIS IDEA NOT THERE QUITE YET AS MODELS HAVE
BEEN JUMPING AROUND WITH EXTENT OF UPR WAVE LIFTING ALONG FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY AND HOW FAR WEST TO HAVE THIS WAVE. DO HAVE LIKELY POPS
NOW OVR THE EAST HALF OF THE CWA WHERE WAVE IS MOST LIKELY TO TRACK
AT THIS POINT. GRADUALLY COOLER AIR SETTLES INTO UPR LAKES TO CLOSE
THE WEEK. SOME LK EFFECT COULD OCCUR...THOUGH THERE ARE DIFFERENCES
IN GUIDANCE ON GENERAL WIND DIRECTION. NO NEED TO STRAY FM CONSENSUS
APPROACH FOR NOW...WHICH RESULTS IN SLIGHT CHANCES OF SNOW SHOWERS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 632 AM EST SAT MAR 3 2012

SAW...WITH STRONG NRLY WINDS AND COLDER AIR MOVING IN WHILE THE PCPN
SHIELD REMAINS OVER THE AREA...EXPECT MODERATE SN TO PERSIST UNTIL
LATER THIS MORNING AND RESULT IN LIFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES. ONCE THE
LOW MOVES FARTHER TO THE E BY THIS AFTERNOON...DRIER AIR WILL
ARRIVE AND THE WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH...SO CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE TO MVFR. HOWEVER...SOME LIGHT LES MAY PERSIST THROUGH
TONIGHT.

CMX/IWD...ALTHOUGH THESE LOCATIONS ARE FARTHER W OF THE DEPARTING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CYCLONIC NNE FLOW WILL SUPPORT SOME -SN AND
IFR/OCNL MVFR CONDITIONS. THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR AND WEAKENING
CYCLONIC FLOW BY THIS AFTERNOON WILL CAUSE CONDITIONS TO
IMPROVE TO MVFR.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 533 AM EST SAT MAR 3 2012
NORTH GALES WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS LAKE SUPERIOR IS ON NORTHWEST
FRINGE OF STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO QUEBEC. GALES
DIMINISH TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER ONTARIO
SLIDES INTO THE REGION. ONCE RIDGE SLIDES OUT TO THE EAST ON MONDAY
A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE IS FCST TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN TIER OF
CANADA. TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT BTWN THE RIDGE AND THE APPROACHING
LOW MAY LEAD TO 30 KT SOUTHERLY WINDS OVR EAST HALF OF LK SUPERIOR
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. STABILITY IS HIGH...BUT IF PRESSURE
FALLS NORTH OF LK SUPERIOR ARE STRONG ENOUGH...COULD SEE GALE GUSTS
OVR EASTERN LK SUPERIOR. COLD FRONT WORKS ACROSS ON WEDNESDAY.
NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY WINDS IN WAKE OF THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BLO 25 KTS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. &&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ013-014.

  WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MIZ007.

  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     MIZ012.

  WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MIZ005-006-085.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     LSZ243>245-248>251-263>267.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ244-245-248>251-
     264>267.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ263.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLA








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

 536 AM EST SAT MAR 3 2012

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 533 AM EST SAT MAR 3 2012

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A TROUGH DOMINATING THE CNTRL
CONUS. A POTENT MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS LOCATED OVER NRN LAKE HURON.
THE STRONG FGEN/DEFORMATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WAS QUICKLY
SLIDING TO THE EAST THROUGH NRN LAKE HURON. HOWEVER A LARGE SHIELD
OF PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH 285K-295 ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND 700-300 MB
QVECTOR CONV CONTINUED ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND UPPER MICHIGAN.
RADAR ALSO SHOWED HIGHER RETURNS INTO N CNTRL UPPER MICHIGAN WHERE
NRLY FLOW UPSLOPE AND LAKE ENHANCEMENT (850 MB TEMPS AROUND -8C)
HAVE BOOSTED SNOWFALL RATES. AT THE SFC...A 979 MB LOW WAS LOCATED
OVER GEORGIAN BAY SUPPORTED STRONG NRLY WINDS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
INTO UPPER MICHIGAN. SINCE THE SNOW TOTAL AT THE NWS OFFICE HAD
REACHED 5 INCHES BY 0930Z AND SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS WERE
EXPECTED TODAY...UPGRADED THE ADVY TO A WARNING FOR MARQUETTE
COUNTY.

TODAY...EXPECT THE SYNOPTIC SCALE UPWARD MOTION AND PCPN SHIELD TO
GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS MORNING AS THE MID LEVEL LOW SHIFTS TO THE
EAST. HOWEVER...WITH DEEP MOISTURE PERSISTING OVER THE AREA ALONG
WITH CAA DROPPING 850 MB TEMPS TO AROUND -15C BY 18Z...TRANSITION
TOWARD LAKE ENHANCED/EFFECT WILL KEEP AT LEAST MODERATE SNOWFALL
RATES GOING THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE 3 TO 5
INCH RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EAST AND HIGHER
TERRAIN IN N CNTRL UPPER MI. OVER THE WEST...LIGHT LAKE
ENHANCED/EFFECT SNOW WILL ALSO CONTINUE WITH LOWER AMOUNTS IN THE 1
TO 3 INCH RANGE. TO THE SOUTH...THE SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF THIS
MORNING WITH MAINLY JUST SCT -SHSN BY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE STRONG
925 MB WINDS OF 30-35 KTS MAY KEEP ACCUMULATING SNOW GOING INTO NE
AND ERN DELTA COUNTY...FARTHER TO THE SW NEAR ESC...ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL SHOULD BE MINIMAL. DRIER SFC-800 MB LAYER AIR MOVING IN FROM
THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON WILL BRING AN OVERALL DIMINISHING TREND WITH
THE LES.

TONIGHT...LES WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE AS A RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS DIMINISHING AND BECOMING MORE ACYC.
SINCE LIGHT TO OCNLY MODERATE SNOW MAY CONTINUE NORTH...ALLOWED WARNING
TO REMAIN IN PLACE. HOWEVER...IF SNOWFALL TRENDS DROP OFF ENOUGH AND
THE DRY AIR MOVES IN MORE AGGRESSIVELY...THE WARNINGS OVER THE NORTH
MAY BE DROPPED EARLY.

SUNDAY...ANY REMAINING N TO NE FLOW LIGHT LES SHOULD DIMINISH SUNDAY
MORNING AS INVERSION HEIGHTS DROP TO AROUND 3K FT AND LOW LEVEL WIND
FIELDS BECOME WEAK AND DISORGANIZED.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 533 AM EST SAT MAR 3 2012

GOOD AGREEMENT FM THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN LARGE SCALE PATTERN
LATER THIS WEEKEND THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. COLD
TROUGH STICKS AROUND INITIALLY THROUGH SUNDAY. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS
AND SUFFICIENTLY COLD AIR IN LOW-LEVELS SHOULD KEEP SCATTERED LIGHT
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES GOING ALONG MUCH OF LK SUPERIOR.
DESPITE H85 TEMPS AS LOW AS -16C...ACCUMS SHOULD END UP QUITE LIGHT
AS LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE WEAK AND ANTICYCLONIC. HEADING INTO MONDAY
THE SFC RIDGE OVR ONTARIO FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND SETTLES INTO THE
CNTRL AND LOWER GREAT LAKES. RIDGE MOVING EAST AND TROUGH PUSHING
ACROSS SCNTRL CANADA ALLOWS BLYR WINDS TO BECOME MORE SWRLY AND
FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR TO END. INDICATIONS THAT PLENTY OF CLOUDS MAY
REMAIN TRAPPED BENEATH DEVELOPING WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN. KEPT
SKIES PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE
UPR 20S/LOWER 30S.

FOR THE EXTENDED...
WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME CONTINUES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. EARLY ON
AS STRONGER SFC LOW SLIDES ACROSS SOUTHERN TIER OF CANADA THERE
COULD BE SOME LGT SNOW TRY TO BREAK OUT OVR PORTIONS OF CWA. ECMWF
AND CANADIAN FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE SNOW WHILE GFS/NAM KEEP MAJORITY
OF SNOW OVR LK SUPERIOR AND INTO ONTARIO. MIDDLE ROAD APPROACH FOR
NOW GIVEN STRENGTH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AND LOOK OF GFS/ECMWF LOWER
H85 DWPNT DEPRESSIONS. BETTER CHANCE OF LGT SNOW OVR THE CWA WOULD
BE MONDAY EVENING ON THE KEWEENAW AND LATER AT NIGHT OVR THE FAR
NORTHEAST CWA. WENT FOR MORE CLOUDS THAN GUIDANCE INTO TUESDAY
WITH SOUNDINGS SHOWING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BENEATH THE STRENGTHENING
INVERSION /H85 TEMPS PUSHING TOWARD +5C ON TUESDAY/. HIGHS ON
TUESDAY WILL BE WARM BUT COULD BE TEMPERED A BIT BY THE CLOUDS.
EVEN SO...A SHALLOW MIXING HEIGHT OF ONLY 950MB YIELDS HIGHS OVR
40 DEGREES. LEANED MORE TOWARD PREVIOUS FCST WITH MID 40S ALONG LK
SUPERIOR SHORE NW AND NCNTRL GIVEN SW WIND DIRECTION. IF WE DO SEE
SUNSHINE...HIGHER SUN ANGLE AND DENSELY FORESTED LANDSCAPE/LOWER
ALBEDO WOULD OFFSET RECENT SNOWFALL AND COULD ALLOW FOR ISOLD 50
DEGREE READINGS. SFC DWPNTS INTO THE MID 30S AND MAYBE EVEN HIGHER
FCST TO SURGE INTO UPR LAKES LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. HAVE
ADDED FOG TO FCST MAINLY OVER INLAND AREAS WHERE TEMPS COULD DIP THE
LOWEST. AT THE LEAST...SEEMS LIKE GOOD SETUP FOR PLENTY OF STRATUS.
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO BE ISSUE FOR LATER TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. VERY STABLE PROFILE IN LOW-LEVELS BUT EVEN SFC-BLYR
WINDS OFF MODELS POINT TO SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS NEAR GREAT LAKE
SHORES GUSTING TO 30-35 MPH ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW COLD FRONT WORKING THROUGH UPR LAKES ON
WEDNESDAY AND NOW IT SEEMS LIKE TREND IS QUICKER IN BRINGING COLDER
AIR INTO WESTERN CWA. GFS SOUNDINGS AT IWD/CMX ARE ESSENTIALLY BLO
0C AS EARLY AS MID MORNING ON WEDNESDAY AND ECMWF LENDS SUPPORT TO
COLDER SCENARIO AS WELL. KEPT MIX OF RAIN/SNOW FOR CNTRL AND EAST...
BUT WENT WITH MAINLY SNOW IN THE WEST. MODEL CONSENSUS WOULD POINT
TO ADVY SNOW ACCUMS IN SOME AREAS OF THE WEST AND CENTRAL...BUT
HIGHER CERTAINTY IN THIS IDEA NOT THERE QUITE YET AS MODELS HAVE
BEEN JUMPING AROUND WITH EXTENT OF UPR WAVE LIFTING ALONG FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY AND HOW FAR WEST TO HAVE THIS WAVE. DO HAVE LIKELY POPS
NOW OVR THE EAST HALF OF THE CWA WHERE WAVE IS MOST LIKELY TO TRACK
AT THIS POINT. GRADUALLY COOLER AIR SETTLES INTO UPR LAKES TO CLOSE
THE WEEK. SOME LK EFFECT COULD OCCUR...THOUGH THERE ARE DIFFERENCES
IN GUIDANCE ON GENERAL WIND DIRECTION. NO NEED TO STRAY FM CONSENSUS
APPROACH FOR NOW...WHICH RESULTS IN SLIGHT CHANCES OF SNOW SHOWERS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 533 AM EST SAT MAR 3 2012

SAW...THIS LOCATION WL BE CLOSEST TO LO PRES MOVING NEWD THRU LOWER
MI OVERNGT. EXPECT MODERATE SN TO PERSIST THRU THE NIGHT AND RESULT
IN LIFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY LATER TNGT WHEN INCRSG N
WINDS ON THE WRN FLANK OF THE LO PASSING TO THE E WL CAUSE SOME
BLSN. ONCE THE LO MOVES FARTHER TO THE E ON SAT...DRIER AIR WL
ARRIVE AND THE WINDS WL SLOWLY DIMINISH...SO CONDITIONS WL IMPROVE
TO MVFR.

CMX/IWD...ALTHOUGH THESE LOCATIONS ARE FARTHER W OF THE LO TRACK...
STRENGTHENING CYC NNE FLOW THRU THE NGT WL CAUSE SOME -SN AND
IFR/OCNL MVFR CONDITIONS. THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR/WEAKENING CYC
FLOW BY SAT AFTN WL CAUSE CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO MVFR.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 533 AM EST SAT MAR 3 2012
ONCE RIDGE SLIDES OUT TO THE EAST A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE IS FCST TO
MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN TIER OF CANADA. TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT BTWN
THE RIDGE AND THE APPROACHING LOW MAY LEAD TO 30 KT SOUTHERLY WINDS
OVR EAST HALF OF LK SUPERIOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. STABILITY
IS HIGH...BUT IF PRESSURE FALLS NORTH OF LK SUPERIOR ARE STRONG
ENOUGH...COULD SEE GALE GUSTS OVR EASTERN LK SUPERIOR. COLD FRONT
WORKS ACROSS ON WEDNESDAY. NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY WINDS IN WAKE OF
THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BLO 25 KTS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ013-014.

  WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MIZ007.

  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     MIZ012.

  WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MIZ005-006-085.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     LSZ243>245-248>251-263>267.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ244-245-248>251-
     264>267.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ263.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLA







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI

 1154 PM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 651 PM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

THE MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS LIFTING NORTH OF
KALAMAZOO AND BATTLE CREEK. WINDS HAVE SHIFTED AT MUSKEGON AND ARE
NOW OUT OF THE NORTH. THIS WILL HELP TO DRAW DOWN THE COLDER AIR
AND RESULT IN A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW IN MUSKEGON BY 9 PM. WINDS
HAVE NOT INCREASED YET...BUT BY 10 PM WE SHOULD BE SEEING THE
POWERFUL GUSTS DEVELOPING ALONG INTERSTATE 94.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 935 PM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

NO HEADLINE/SIGNIFICANT FCST CHANGES ARE PLANNED THIS EVENING. ONE
TO THREE INCHES OF SNOW HAS ALREADY FALLEN ACROSS OUR NNW FCST AREA
WITH NUMEROUS REPORTS OF HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS UP THERE. THE
986 MB SFC LOW IS NOW CENTERED JUST NNE OF GRR. WINDS WILL RAMP UP
LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AND THE HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT TO COVER THAT THROUGH 12Z SAT.

SFC LOW TO TRACK ACROSS KALAMAZOO TO SAGINAW BAY THIS EVENING
WHILE RAPIDLY DEEPENING. LATEST MSAS SHOWS IT AT PRESENTLY 990MB
IN WRN INDIANA AND THE HRR RUC HAS IT 970MB AT 07Z OVER SAGINAW
BAY. AS THE LOW PASSES BY LATER THIS EVENING LOOK FOR WIND GUSTS
APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING WARNING CRITERIA OF 50 KNOTS. THIS IS
SUPPORTED IN FCST SNDGS AND HRR WIND GUST PROGS... WITH BEST
THREAT OVER THE SRN FCST AREA. NOT AS CERTAIN NORTH OF ST JOHNS.
BEST WINDOW FOR SVR GUSTS IS ROUGHLY 04Z-08Z... BUT WILL HAVE
BUFFER ON EITHER SIDE FOR THE WARNING TIME.

AS FAR AS THE HEAVY SNOW THREAT... DID NOT STRAY TOO MUCH FROM
PREVIOUS FCST. CONVECTION/LIGHTNING STRIKES NOW BEING OBSERVED
ACROSS NRN IL IN THE SRN EDGE OF DEVELOPING DEFORMATION
ZONE/TROWAL. THIS FEATURE WILL ONLY INTENSIFY THIS EVENING... THEN
IT/S JUST A MATTER OF CHANGING PCPN OVER TO SNOW IN THE WARNING
AREA. IT LOOKS PRETTY WARM THROUGH 00Z... THEN RAPID DYNAMICAL
COOLING SHOULD FORCE CHANGEOVER TO HEAVY SNOW WITH ONE TO TWO INCH
PER HOUR RATES STILL LIKELY TONIGHT.

BECAUSE OF THE MARGINAL SFC TEMPS IN THE MID 30S ACROSS THE
WARNING AREA... ELEVATION WILL PROBABLY PLAY A CRITICAL ROLE IN
WHEN RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW AND ALSO IN STORM TOTAL SNOW
ACCUMULATION. HAVE ADDED IN MECOSTA COUNTY INTO THE WARNING AS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS THERE MAY RESULT IN AMOUNTS APPROACHING SIX
INCHES. HOWEVER EVEN WHERE ACCUMS DO NOT REACH SIX INCHES THE
WARNING IS PROBABLY STILL WELL JUSTIFIED DUE TO THE COMBO OF THE
HIGH WINDS AND THE SNOW.

HEAVY SYNOPTIC SNOW IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN
TOWARD 12Z SAT... WITH A TRANSITION TO LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOWS.
ANOTHER 2 TO 4 INCHES IS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY IN THE WARNING
AREA... AND ALSO FARTHER SOUTH INCLUDING THE GRR/BIV AREAS. AFTER
THE HIGH WIND WARNING EXPIRES... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED SATURDAY FOR KENT/OTTAWA SOUTH... WHILE THE WARNING
CONTINUES IN THE NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 213 PM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

THERE ARE TWO SYSTEMS WE ARE WATCHING IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE
FIRST IS THE LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE ARCTIC FRONT
COMING THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING THEN THE SYSTEM IN THE
WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME.

THERE IS A TRAILING NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM THAT ROTATES ACROSS
LOWER MICHIGAN SUNDAY NIGHT ON THE NORTHERN STREAM. THIS BRINGS TO
COLDEST AIR THIS AREA HAS SEEN SINCE THE AROUND THE 12TH OF
FEBRUARY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW FREEZING SUNDAY ACROSS
JUST ABOUT ALL OF THE CWA. WITH THAT COLD AIR COMING IN I EXPECTED
ENHANCED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AS THERE IS GOOD UPPER AIR
SUPPORT AND DECENT LOW LEVEL WIND CONVERGENCE ON THE FRONT. SO I
HAVE HIGH POPS SUNDAY NIGHT WEST OF US-131. SNOWFALL SHOULD BE
LIMITED AS THE SNOW WILL MOSTLY HAPPEN AS THE FRONT DROPS SOUTH.

ONCE THE FRONT IS THROUGH WINDS BECOME NORTH DURING THE DAY SUNDAY
SO SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOSTLY BE NEAR THE LAKE SHORE. SUNDAY NIGHT
THE HIGH MOVES IN AND ANY SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH. THE UPPER
LEVEL JET CROSSING SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN EARLY MONDAY WILL
CAUSE THE INVERSION HEIGHT TO CRASH TOO... FARTHER LIMITING THE
POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SHOWERS.

HIGH PRESSURE RULES MONDAY DURING THE DAY INTO TUESDAY. THEN THE
NEXT SYSTEM DURING THE WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY TIME FRAME. THERE ARE
BIG DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF AS THE ECMWF HAS A MUCH
LARGER UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST... CAUSING A MUCH DEEPER
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THE ECMWF BRINGS EVEN
COLDER AIR IN BEHIND THAT SYSTEM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY THAN THIS
WEEKEND. WITH THE GFS BEING MUCH FLATTER... NOT MUCH COLD AIR
FOLLOWS. GIVEN THE VARIABILITY ON THE MODELS AND THAT EVEN THE
ECMWF HAS NOT BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH THIS I WENT HALF WAY
BETWEEN THE TOO MODELS. FOR NOW THROUGH BOTH SUGGEST EVERY WARM
WEATHER WITH SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE ISSUE
STARTS THURSDAY ONCE THE COLD AIR COMES IN. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH
THIS FOR ANOTHER POSSIBLE WINTER WEATHER EVENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST OVER 30 KNOTS INTO SATURDAY AS THE STORM IS
ONLY SLOWLY PULLING AWAY FROM THE REGION. IFR CONDITIONS WILL
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT TO MVFR...HOWEVER ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE
MOVES IN FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY. AS A RESULT SNOW SHOULD
INCREASE AGAIN AFTER DAYBREAK. BY 00Z SUN...THE BULK OF THE
IMPACTS FROM THE SNOW SHOULD BE OVER AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM
THE WEST.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 445 PM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

UPGRADED THE GALE WARNING TO A STORM WARNING FOR TONIGHT AS
INTENSE LOW GOES BY. GALES STILL POSSIBLE EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE
A GRADUAL DIMINISHING TREND THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 445 PM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

RIVER LEVELS ARE HIGH DUE TO RECENT RAINS... AND UP TO ANOTHER
INCH OF RAIN MAY FALL TONIGHT. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ALSO
POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME... EVEN WITH FUTURE QPF FACTORED IN... NO
SITES ARE FORECAST TO REACH OR EXCEED FLOOD STAGE. SEVERAL SITES
HOWEVER ARE IN FLOOD ADVISORIES... INCLUDING... GRAND RIVER AT
IONIA... PORTAGE RIVER NEAR VICKSBURG... GRAND RIVER AT JACKSON...
SYCAMORE CREEK AT HOLT... MAPLE RIVER AT MAPLE RAPIDS... AND
THORNAPPLE RIVER ABOVE HASTINGS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR MIZ046-051-052-
     056>059-064>067-071>074.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST SATURDAY FOR MIZ037>040-
     043>045-050.

LM...STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MJS
SHORT TERM...MEADE/LAURENS
LONG TERM....WDM
AVIATION...MJS
MARINE...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...MEADE







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

 547 PM CST SUN MAR 4 2012

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
PREDOMINANTLY BENIGN WEATHER LOOKS TO BE ON TAP FOR THE REGION
OVER THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE ONLY FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE A
COLD FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY... ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THAT LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL OCCUR TO OUR SOUTHEAST. IN THE BIG PICTURE... THE
PROMINENT UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN CONUS IS EXPECTED
TO SHIFT INTO THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS...
RESULTING IN WARMING TEMPERATURES AND MUCH ABOVE NORMAL READINGS
BY TUESDAY. AFTER THAT... THE UPPER FLOW LOOKS TO BE SOMEWHAT
PROGRESSIVE... BUT WITH AN OVERALL TENDENCY FOR RISING HEIGHTS
OVER THE CONUS AND THE ESTABLISHMENT OF A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OR SO OF THE COUNTRY BY THE END OF NEXT
WEEKEND.

THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA... WHICH HELPED
TO INCREASE AUGMENT THE MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS OVER WEST AND
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA TODAY... WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY THIS
EVENING... WITH RIDGING STEADILY WORKING INTO THE AREA. MAY SEE A
FEW FLURRIES LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS... BUT OVERALL
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE... WITH GENERALLY 1-3 INCHES
OF SNOW HAVING FALLEN IN WEST CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA. WARM ADVECTION WILL GET GOING IN EARNEST ON MONDAY...
WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING BY AFTERNOON. THOSE WINDS
COULD CREATE SOME BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW IN LOCATIONS THAT SAW A
FEW FLUFFY INCHES TODAY. BY TUESDAY WE SHOULD SEE 850MB
TEMPERATURES AOA 10C ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
CWFA... HELPING TO BOOST TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 50S... AND
POSSIBLY AROUND 60 OVER THE SOUTH. THE SNOW COVER WILL MITIGATE
TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT... BUT THE MARCH SUN ANGLE AND GUSTY WINDS
SHOULD PROMOTE GOOD MIXING... SO NOT OVERLY CONCERNED ABOUT
READINGS BEING HELD DOWN BY SNOW COVER. COLD FRONT LOOKS TO DROP
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY... WITH PCPN EVENTUALLY
DEVELOPING ALONG AND BEHIND IT AS IT DOES SO. MODELS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT ON WHEN THE FORCING WILL EVENTUALLY SATURATE THINGS AND
WRING OUT SOME PCPN... AND THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THAT SHOULD BE
OVER ABOUT THE SOUTHEAST HALF OR SO OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. SHOULD BE SUFFICIENTLY WARM FOR ANY PCPN
TO INITIALLY BE RAIN... WITH IT PERHAPS ENDING AS SNOW AS PROFILES
COOL BELOW FREEZING BEHIND THE FRONT. KEPT CHANCE POPS IN FOR
THOSE TWO PERIODS... AND WOULD IMAGINE THEY WILL BE INCREASED ONCE
THE LOCATION AND TIMING LOOK MORE CERTAIN.

A BRIEF SHOT OF COLDER AIR WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BEHIND
WEDNESDAY/S FRONT... BUT WARM ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP
ACROSS THE AREA BY THURSDAY EVENING... WITH STEADILY RISING
HEIGHTS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. DON/T
FORESEE ANY OTHER CHANCES FOR PCPN AFTER WEDNESDAY NIGHT UNTIL
PERHAPS SUNDAY. THAT PCPN CHANCE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A CUTOFF
LOW THAT WILL BE WORKING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST CONUS OVER
THE WEEKEND. THE MODELS HAVE QUICKENED THE PACE OF THIS FEATURE IN
THEIR MOST RECENT RUNS... BUT QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD REMAINS IN THE
ENSEMBLES. INCLUDED SOME LOW CHANCE POPS ON SUNDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS POSSIBILITY... ALTHOUGH KEPT THINGS DRY IN THE WEST FOR NOW
GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHAT PATH THE SYSTEM WILL TAKE AS IT
MOVES OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION.../00Z TAF ISSUANCE/

LOW PRES CENTER OVER CENTRAL IA WILL CONTINUE TO DROP WELL S AND E
OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT WHILE HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE DAKOTAS
WILL DRIVE S INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. ELEVATED
MOISTURE WILL KEEP MID AND HIGH CLOUDS IN PLACE OVERNIGHT...WHICH
WITH WINDS MAINLY OUT OF THE W AND NW SHOULD MITIGATE FOG
CONCERNS. NOT TO SAY FOG COULDN/T OCCUR BUT HRRR AND SREF MODELS
DO NOT INDICATE AS SUCH AND CLEARING IS NOT EXPECTED. VFR
CONDITIONS THEN PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY MON AS WINDS BECOME SLY
AND INCREASE TO AROUND 15G25KT.

MSP...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. NW WINDS ARND
5 KT WILL BACK TO W OVERNIGHT THEN BECOME S BY LATE MRNG. MID/HIGH
CLOUDS SHOULD PREVENT FOG FROM DEVELOPING BUT HAVE DROPPED VSBY TO
6SM OVERNIGHT TO HINT OF THE POSSIBILITY...ALBEIT LOW...OF MVFR
VSBYS IN THE PREDAWN HOURS. MID/HIGH CLOUDS PREVAIL THROUGH THE
DAY TMRW INTO TMRW EVENING WHILE SLY WINDS INCREASE AROUND MIDDAY
AND BECOME GUSTY.

OUTLOOK...
/TUE/...VFR. BREEZY S/SW WINDS.
/TUE NIGHT-WED/...MVFR CIG/VSBY POSSIBLE AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH THE AREA. CHANCE OF -RA/-SN.
/THU-FRI/...VFR.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

JPC






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO

 1121 AM CST Sat Mar 3 2012


...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...
/949 AM CST Sat Mar 3 2012/

Water vapor imagery shows a fairly well pronounced PV anomaly moving
south from Northern Plains along the eastern edge of a building ridge
and enhancing the troughing already digging into the central CONUS.
This anomaly will bring cooler air aloft and with surface
temperatures expected to climb into the upper 40s to lower 50s, steep
lapse rates should result. Indeed, modified afternoon soundings yield
a small amount of instability which may be enough get a few showers
going given the enhanced lift with the approaching upper PV anomaly.
However, dry low levels should keep much of the precipitation as
virga so for now have only added a chance for few sprinkles to mainly
just our Kansas zones. The latest NAM, HRRR and 00Z NSSL WRF and
NCEP WRF all develop some showers this afternoon ahead of this
feature from Nebraska into eastern Kansas and have apparently keyed
on the lift and weak instability generated from the approaching upper
wave.

CDB

&&


.DISCUSSION...

The main focus of the forecast will surround a small chance for
precipitation tomorrow and then the upcoming warming trend this week.
Upper level trough responsible for the severe weather outbreak
across the Ohio and Tennessee valleys and into the SE US yesterday
continues to churn across the Great Lakes early this morning. Wrap
around stratus on the back side of the system slowly edging
southward across the bulk of Iowa. Expect some of this cloud cover
to make it into the northern and eastern counties during the day,
which may tend to hold temperatures on the cool side across these
locations. Elsewhere, downslope component to the low level wind
fields combined with deep mixing should allow temperatures to warm
into the mid to upper 40s across the western 2/3rds of the area.

By tomorrow, northwest upper flow pattern will be in place with a
weak embedded wave expected to traverse the upper Midwest. This may
provide a slight chance for some light precipitation across the far
northeast corner of the forecast area. Morning soundings look to
support snow before low level temperatures warm by the afternoon for
more of rain profile. Expect a similar temperature gradient to be in
place again on Sunday with mid to upper 40s by the afternoon hours
across northeast Missouri and readings near the 60 degree mark across
eastern Kansas.

Surface ridge slides east of the area on Monday with southerly low
level flow returning to the region. Wind fields will further
strengthen through the beginning of the work week as pressure falls
take shape across the high plains. This will help transport much
warmer temperatures into the area and therefore continued to push
temperatures above the consensus numbers through Wednesday. Given the
deep southerly low level flow expected to be in place by Tuesday,
still thinking at least lower 70s will be possible across eastern
Kansas/western Missouri by the afternoon hours.

Models continue to advertise the next storm system to move into the
plains on Wednesday with an associated cold front to move into the
forecast area during this time frame. While differences still exists
with the timing and amplitude of this system, guidance has come into
somewhat better agreement. However given continued uncertainty,
maintained pops close to consensus numbers to account.

Deroche

&&

.AVIATION...

For the 18Z TAFS, VFR conditions are expected through the valid
period with scattered clouds developing this afternoon. A few
sprinkles are possible west of the terminals through the afternoon as
well. Winds will become variable overnight, increasing from the west
by late morning and then becoming northwesterly by Sunday afternoon.

CDB

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO EAX







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO

 1000 AM CST Sat Mar 3 2012

.UPDATE...
/949 AM CST Sat Mar 3 2012/

Water vapor imagery shows a fairly well pronounced PV anomaly moving
south from Northern Plains along the eastern edge of a building ridge
and enhancing the troughing already digging into the central CONUS.
This anomaly will bring cooler air aloft and with surface
temperatures expected to climb into the upper 40s to lower 50s, steep
lapse rates should result. Indeed, modified afternoon soundings yield
a small amount of instability which may be enough get a few showers
going given the enhanced lift with the approaching upper PV anomaly.
However, dry low levels should keep much of the precipitation as
virga so for now have only added a chance for few sprinkles to mainly
just our Kansas zones. The latest NAM, HRRR and 00Z NSSL WRF and
NCEP WRF all develop some showers this afternoon ahead of this
feature from Nebraska into eastern Kansas and have apparently keyed
on the lift and weak instability generated from the approaching upper
wave.

CDB

&&

.DISCUSSION...

The main focus of the forecast will surround a small chance for
precipitation tomorrow and then the upcoming warming trend this week.
Upper level trough responsible for the severe weather outbreak
across the Ohio and Tennessee valleys and into the SE US yesterday
continues to churn across the Great Lakes early this morning. Wrap
around stratus on the back side of the system slowly edging
southward across the bulk of Iowa. Expect some of this cloud cover
to make it into the northern and eastern counties during the day,
which may tend to hold temperatures on the cool side across these
locations. Elsewhere, downslope component to the low level wind
fields combined with deep mixing should allow temperatures to warm
into the mid to upper 40s across the western 2/3rds of the area.

By tomorrow, northwest upper flow pattern will be in place with a
weak embedded wave expected to traverse the upper Midwest. This may
provide a slight chance for some light precipitation across the far
northeast corner of the forecast area. Morning soundings look to
support snow before low level temperatures warm by the afternoon for
more of rain profile. Expect a similar temperature gradient to be in
place again on Sunday with mid to upper 40s by the afternoon hours
across northeast Missouri and readings near the 60 degree mark across
eastern Kansas.

Surface ridge slides east of the area on Monday with southerly low
level flow returning to the region. Wind fields will further
strengthen through the beginning of the work week as pressure falls
take shape across the high plains. This will help transport much
warmer temperatures into the area and therefore continued to push
temperatures above the consensus numbers through Wednesday. Given the
deep southerly low level flow expected to be in place by Tuesday,
still thinking at least lower 70s will be possible across eastern
Kansas/western Missouri by the afternoon hours.

Models continue to advertise the next storm system to move into the
plains on Wednesday with an associated cold front to move into the
forecast area during this time frame. While differences still exists
with the timing and amplitude of this system, guidance has come into
somewhat better agreement. However given continued uncertainty,
maintained pops close to consensus numbers to account.

Deroche

&&

.AVIATION...

For the 12Z TAFs...VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24
hours. Surface wind will be rather gusty and from the northwest
through the afternoon hours, before relaxing and turning to the west
later tonight.

Cutter

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO EAX







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HASTINGS NE

 624 PM CST SUN MAR 4 2012

.UPDATE...WINDS HAVE STARTED TO DIMINISH AND THE WIND ADVISORY HAS
BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 521 PM CST SUN MAR 4 2012/

AVIATION...00Z TAF. CUMULUS CLOUDS FROM THIS AFTERNOON ARE
STARTING TO DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE. A SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SETTLE INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING AND
ALLOW WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE NIGHT. BY
MORNING WINDS WILL BE TURNING TO THE SOUTH AND DURING THE MORNING
WILL INCREASE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CST SUN MAR 4 2012/

SHORT TERM...THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY. MORNING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES
LONG WAVE RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND TROUGHING OVER THE
EAST. MID AND UPPER LEVEL JET ENERGY IS POSITIONED OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AS A RESULT. FLOW REMAINS VERY STRONG THROUGH LOWER
PORTIONS OF THE TROPOSPHERE AS WELL...WITH A ~50KT 700MB JET
STREAK AND A ~40KT 850MB JET STREAK CURRENTLY OVER PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES INCREASING MID LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS ALONG THE MID LEVEL JET
AXIS. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS SITUATED OVER
THE MISSOURI VALLEY...WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINING FROM THE
NORTHWEST ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA AS A RESULT.

PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS FROM LAPS AND RUC ANALYSIS SUGGEST BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING TO BETWEEN 750MB AND 700MB PERSISTS AT THIS HOUR ACROSS
MUCH OF OUR CWA...A TREND WHICH WILL CONTINUE UNTIL DIABATIC HEATING
IS LOST LATER THIS EVENING. ALSO...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...RUC ANALYSIS
INDICATES A 700MB JET STREAK OF ~50KTS AND AN 850MB JET STREAK OF
~40KTS ALSO PERSISTS OVER THE AREA. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20KTS TO NEAR
35KTS...WITH GUSTS AROUND 40KTS...CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA
AS A RESULT. ALTHOUGH WIND ADVISORY WINDS ARE NOT AS PREVALENT
FARTHER SOUTH/SOUTHWEST ACROSS OUR CWA...KMCK CONTINUES TO REPORT
STRONG WINDS...SOME OF WHICH COULD SLIP INTO KHDE AND KPHG TOWARDS
LATE AFTERNOON. GIVEN ALL THIS...WILL CONTINUE THE CURRENT WIND
ADVISORY THROUGH 00Z. THESE WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE VERY QUICKLY AROUND
SUNSET AS DIABATIC HEATING IS LOST AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS
DECOUPLED FROM THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT.

ALTHOUGH THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL JET AXIS IS OVER US KNOW...IT HAS
BEGUN TO DRIFT EAST...AWAY FROM OUR AREA. MID AND UPPER LEVEL JET
ENERGY SHOULD MOVE COMPLETELY OUT OF OUR AREA TONIGHT...THUS
PRESENTING LITTLE TO NO KINEMATIC FORCING ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD. DRY CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AS A RESULT.

FORECAST PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM AND OPERATIONAL GFS
SUGGEST BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING TO AROUND 800MB...IF NOT SLIGHTLY
DEEPER...WILL BE REALIZED ACROSS THE CWA MONDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE
MID LEVEL JET AXIS SHIFTS EAST INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SO WILL
THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME...THUS ELIMINATING THE INCREASED RH
VALUES WE HAVE SEEN AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER BOTH TODAY AND
YESTERDAY. THIS WILL IN TURN PRESENT AN OPPORTUNITY FOR AFTERNOON
SURFACE DEW POINTS TO DROP OFF AS BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING COMMENCES
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THANKFULLY...A STIFF SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WIND
FIELD...PERHAPS TURNING A TOUCH SOUTHWESTERLY BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON BUT NOT BY MUCH...SHOULD HELP PROMOTE DESCENT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INFLUX TO OUR AREA. THIS SHOULD HELP OFFSET AFTERNOON DROPS
IN DEW POINTS. ALL THAT BEING SAID...THE CURRENT FORECAST SHOWS MONDAY
AFTERNOON SURFACE RH VALUES DROPPING TO AROUND 21% FOR A COUPLE
HOURS ACROSS OUR EXTREME SOUTHWEST. THIS LOOKS LIKE A MARGINAL RFW
EVENT FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA MONDAY. WILL
HOLD OFF ON ANY FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES FOR MONDAY AND LET THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT SHIFTS EVALUATE FURTHER. WILL HOWEVER GO
AHEAD AND MENTION AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT IN THE HWO TO
GET THE WORD OUT.

THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING ON MONDAY...WORKING IN
CONCERT WITH A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT DUE TO AN
INTENSIFYING LEE SIDE TROUGH ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE...WILL PRESENT
YET ANOTHER BREEZY DAY ACROSS THE CWA. MAV GUIDANCE SUGGESTS OUR
EXTREME SOUTH WILL BRIEFLY HIT WIND ADVISORY THRESHOLDS BY MID
AFTERNOON...WHILE THE MET GUIDANCE KEEPS OUR ENTIRE CWA UNDER WIND
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. WILL KEEP ANY MENTION OF WIND ADVISORY WINDS
OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW...BUT MENTION INCREASED WINDS ACROSS OUR
SOUTH IN THE HWO TO GET THE WORD OUT. FUTURE SHIFTS WILL CERTAINLY WANT
TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON MONDAY WINDS TO MAKE SURE THEY WILL INDEED
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.  DRY...QUIET WEATHER WILL
BE IN PLACE MONDAY NIGHT IN A FAIRLY ZONAL PATTERN ALOFT...FOLLOWING
PASSAGE OF SURFACE TROUGH.  WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS WELL NORTH
INTO THE DAKOTAS ON TUESDAY AND MODELS ARE CONSISTENT THAT
UNSEASONABLY MILD H85 TEMPS OF 14C TO 15C WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE
INTERIOR CONUS.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MIXING WILL REACH H85
AND SUBSEQUENT HIGH TEMPS SHLD EASILY REACH THE 70S.  TUESDAY WILL
NOT BE WITHOUT WIND HOWEVER...WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING WINDS
AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER RANGING FROM AROUND 17KTS IN OUR WEST
TO OVER 30KTS IN THE EAST.  SURFACE GRADIENT IS TIGHTEST IN THE EAST
AND CONDITIONS ARE LOOKING BORDERLINE FOR REACHING WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA ATTM.  CURRENTLY HAVE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR OUR WESTERN
CWA FOR TUESDAY...AND WITH FRONT SLOWING DOWN...WINDS LOOK STRONGER
IN OUR WEST COMPARED TO 24HRS AGO.  PROGGED RH VALUES DROP BELOW 20
PERCENT ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF OUR CWA...AND WILL LEAVE
CURRENT WATCH HEADLINE AS IS.  IF FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOW...HIGHER
DPS MAY MATERIALIZE AS WELL AS HIGHER RH/S.  WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.

UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE SOUTHERN
STREAM CLOSING/CUTTING OFF ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE NORTHERN STREAM
TRANSLATES ACROSS THE DAKOTAS/UPPER MIDWEST.  THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WITH NORTHERN SYSTEM GRADUALLY PUSHES SOUTH INTO OUR CWA
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.  THE GFS IS FASTER WITH FRONT THAN
THE NAM AND HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE SLOWER SOLUTION.  FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING INCREASES ALONG BOUNDARY...MAINLY IN THE AFTN...AND WITH
SLOWER TIMING/INCREASING FORCING HAVE EXPANDED POPS TO OUR ENTIRE
CWA.  INSTABILITY PROGS SHOW SOME MUCAPE WITH NAM INDICATING VALUES
GENERALLY 25J/KG WITH GFS AS HIGH AS 200 J/K IN OUR FAR SOUTHEAST.
WILL GO WITH CONVECTIVE RAIN SHOWER WORDING FOR NOW AND MONITOR
INSTABILITY TRENDS BEFORE INSERTING THUNDER JUST YET.  COLD AIR
ADVECTS SOUTH BEHIND FRONT WITH NW WINDS INCREASING FOR A TIME ON
WED.  PCPN CHCS CONTINUES WED NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY BUT SHIFT
SOUTH WITH TIME ALONG SOUTHWARD ADVANCING BAROCLINIC ZONE.  AS TEMPS
DIURNALLY COOL...A MIX OF R/S IS POSSIBLE.

FROM THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND MODELS DIVERGE
IN HANDLING OF THE SOUTHWEST CONUS CUTOFF UPPER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.  CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW DURING THIS TIME FRAME GIVEN THE
VARYING SOLUTIONS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...FIRE WEATHER WATCH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR NEZ060-072-073-082-083.

KS...FIRE WEATHER WATCH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR KSZ005-017.

&&

$$








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HASTINGS NE

 521 PM CST SUN MAR 4 2012

.AVIATION...00Z TAF. CUMULUS CLOUDS FROM THIS AFTERNOON ARE
STARTING TO DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE. A SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SETTLE INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING AND
ALLOW WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE NIGHT. BY
MORNING WINDS WILL BE TURNING TO THE SOUTH AND DURING THE MORNING
WILL INCREASE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CST SUN MAR 4 2012/

SHORT TERM...THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY. MORNING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES
LONG WAVE RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND TROUGHING OVER THE
EAST. MID AND UPPER LEVEL JET ENERGY IS POSITIONED OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AS A RESULT. FLOW REMAINS VERY STRONG THROUGH LOWER
PORTIONS OF THE TROPOSPHERE AS WELL...WITH A ~50KT 700MB JET
STREAK AND A ~40KT 850MB JET STREAK CURRENTLY OVER PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES INCREASING MID LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS ALONG THE MID LEVEL JET
AXIS. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS SITUATED OVER
THE MISSOURI VALLEY...WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINING FROM THE
NORTHWEST ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA AS A RESULT.

PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS FROM LAPS AND RUC ANALYSIS SUGGEST BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING TO BETWEEN 750MB AND 700MB PERSISTS AT THIS HOUR ACROSS
MUCH OF OUR CWA...A TREND WHICH WILL CONTINUE UNTIL DIABATIC HEATING
IS LOST LATER THIS EVENING. ALSO...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...RUC ANALYSIS
INDICATES A 700MB JET STREAK OF ~50KTS AND AN 850MB JET STREAK OF
~40KTS ALSO PERSISTS OVER THE AREA. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20KTS TO NEAR
35KTS...WITH GUSTS AROUND 40KTS...CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA
AS A RESULT. ALTHOUGH WIND ADVISORY WINDS ARE NOT AS PREVALENT
FARTHER SOUTH/SOUTHWEST ACROSS OUR CWA...KMCK CONTINUES TO REPORT
STRONG WINDS...SOME OF WHICH COULD SLIP INTO KHDE AND KPHG TOWARDS
LATE AFTERNOON. GIVEN ALL THIS...WILL CONTINUE THE CURRENT WIND
ADVISORY THROUGH 00Z. THESE WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE VERY QUICKLY AROUND
SUNSET AS DIABATIC HEATING IS LOST AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS
DECOUPLED FROM THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT.

ALTHOUGH THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL JET AXIS IS OVER US KNOW...IT HAS
BEGUN TO DRIFT EAST...AWAY FROM OUR AREA. MID AND UPPER LEVEL JET
ENERGY SHOULD MOVE COMPLETELY OUT OF OUR AREA TONIGHT...THUS
PRESENTING LITTLE TO NO KINEMATIC FORCING ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD. DRY CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AS A RESULT.

FORECAST PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM AND OPERATIONAL GFS
SUGGEST BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING TO AROUND 800MB...IF NOT SLIGHTLY
DEEPER...WILL BE REALIZED ACROSS THE CWA MONDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE
MID LEVEL JET AXIS SHIFTS EAST INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SO WILL
THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME...THUS ELIMINATING THE INCREASED RH
VALUES WE HAVE SEEN AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER BOTH TODAY AND
YESTERDAY. THIS WILL IN TURN PRESENT AN OPPORTUNITY FOR AFTERNOON
SURFACE DEW POINTS TO DROP OFF AS BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING COMMENCES
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THANKFULLY...A STIFF SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WIND
FIELD...PERHAPS TURNING A TOUCH SOUTHWESTERLY BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON BUT NOT BY MUCH...SHOULD HELP PROMOTE DESCENT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INFLUX TO OUR AREA. THIS SHOULD HELP OFFSET AFTERNOON DROPS
IN DEW POINTS. ALL THAT BEING SAID...THE CURRENT FORECAST SHOWS MONDAY
AFTERNOON SURFACE RH VALUES DROPPING TO AROUND 21% FOR A COUPLE
HOURS ACROSS OUR EXTREME SOUTHWEST. THIS LOOKS LIKE A MARGINAL RFW
EVENT FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA MONDAY. WILL
HOLD OFF ON ANY FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES FOR MONDAY AND LET THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT SHIFTS EVALUATE FURTHER. WILL HOWEVER GO
AHEAD AND MENTION AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT IN THE HWO TO
GET THE WORD OUT.

THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING ON MONDAY...WORKING IN
CONCERT WITH A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT DUE TO AN
INTENSIFYING LEE SIDE TROUGH ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE...WILL PRESENT
YET ANOTHER BREEZY DAY ACROSS THE CWA. MAV GUIDANCE SUGGESTS OUR
EXTREME SOUTH WILL BRIEFLY HIT WIND ADVISORY THRESHOLDS BY MID
AFTERNOON...WHILE THE MET GUIDANCE KEEPS OUR ENTIRE CWA UNDER WIND
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. WILL KEEP ANY MENTION OF WIND ADVISORY WINDS
OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW...BUT MENTION INCREASED WINDS ACROSS OUR
SOUTH IN THE HWO TO GET THE WORD OUT. FUTURE SHIFTS WILL CERTAINLY WANT
TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON MONDAY WINDS TO MAKE SURE THEY WILL INDEED
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.  DRY...QUIET WEATHER WILL
BE IN PLACE MONDAY NIGHT IN A FAIRLY ZONAL PATTERN ALOFT...FOLLOWING
PASSAGE OF SURFACE TROUGH.  WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS WELL NORTH
INTO THE DAKOTAS ON TUESDAY AND MODELS ARE CONSISTENT THAT
UNSEASONABLY MILD H85 TEMPS OF 14C TO 15C WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE
INTERIOR CONUS.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MIXING WILL REACH H85
AND SUBSEQUENT HIGH TEMPS SHLD EASILY REACH THE 70S.  TUESDAY WILL
NOT BE WITHOUT WIND HOWEVER...WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING WINDS
AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER RANGING FROM AROUND 17KTS IN OUR WEST
TO OVER 30KTS IN THE EAST.  SURFACE GRADIENT IS TIGHTEST IN THE EAST
AND CONDITIONS ARE LOOKING BORDERLINE FOR REACHING WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA ATTM.  CURRENTLY HAVE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR OUR WESTERN
CWA FOR TUESDAY...AND WITH FRONT SLOWING DOWN...WINDS LOOK STRONGER
IN OUR WEST COMPARED TO 24HRS AGO.  PROGGED RH VALUES DROP BELOW 20
PERCENT ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF OUR CWA...AND WILL LEAVE
CURRENT WATCH HEADLINE AS IS.  IF FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOW...HIGHER
DPS MAY MATERIALIZE AS WELL AS HIGHER RH/S.  WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.

UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE SOUTHERN
STREAM CLOSING/CUTTING OFF ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE NORTHERN STREAM
TRANSLATES ACROSS THE DAKOTAS/UPPER MIDWEST.  THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WITH NORTHERN SYSTEM GRADUALLY PUSHES SOUTH INTO OUR CWA
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.  THE GFS IS FASTER WITH FRONT THAN
THE NAM AND HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE SLOWER SOLUTION.  FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING INCREASES ALONG BOUNDARY...MAINLY IN THE AFTN...AND WITH
SLOWER TIMING/INCREASING FORCING HAVE EXPANDED POPS TO OUR ENTIRE
CWA.  INSTABILITY PROGS SHOW SOME MUCAPE WITH NAM INDICATING VALUES
GENERALLY 25J/KG WITH GFS AS HIGH AS 200 J/K IN OUR FAR SOUTHEAST.
WILL GO WITH CONVECTIVE RAIN SHOWER WORDING FOR NOW AND MONITOR
INSTABILITY TRENDS BEFORE INSERTING THUNDER JUST YET.  COLD AIR
ADVECTS SOUTH BEHIND FRONT WITH NW WINDS INCREASING FOR A TIME ON
WED.  PCPN CHCS CONTINUES WED NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY BUT SHIFT
SOUTH WITH TIME ALONG SOUTHWARD ADVANCING BAROCLINIC ZONE.  AS TEMPS
DIURNALLY COOL...A MIX OF R/S IS POSSIBLE.

FROM THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND MODELS DIVERGE
IN HANDLING OF THE SOUTHWEST CONUS CUTOFF UPPER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.  CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW DURING THIS TIME FRAME GIVEN THE
VARYING SOLUTIONS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NEZ039>041-046>049-
     060>064-072>077-082>087.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR NEZ060-072-073-082-083.

KS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR KSZ005>007-017>019.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR KSZ005-017.

&&

$$








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE

 245 PM CST SAT MAR 3 2012

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

LIGHT SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES SHOWING UP ON RADAR AT 20Z WEST OF A
KOLU TO KLNK LINE. RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME MID LEVEL
SATURATION AND INSTABILITY FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
DISSIPATING WITH LOSS OF HEATING.

ANOTHER CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIP COMES INTO THE PICTURE LATE TONIGHT
AS A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM DROPS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
THEN CONTINUES INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SUNDAY. NAM AND
GFS SHOW A SIMILAR TRACK IN TAKING THE WAVE ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA
WHILE THE ECMWF IS A BIT FURTHER WEST ALONG THE NEBRASKA IOWA
BORDER. CURRENT FORECAST WILL FOLLOW THE MORE EASTERLY TRACK AND
BRING SOME SMALL POPS INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA LATE TONIGHT WITH
LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES JUST EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO PICK UP ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM
SUNDAY WITH ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS INDICATED FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA. WILL NOT ISSUE
ANY HEADLINES AT THIS TIME AND LET LATER SHIFT REEVALUATE TRACK OF
THE SYSTEM IN NEXT MODEL RUN.

WARMER AIR RETURNS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS RIDGE MOVES OVER THE
REGION AND FLATTENS AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER WAVE DROPPING INTO THE
WESTERN CONUS. MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON TUESDAY
WITH HIGHS APPROACHING 70 IF MODELS MAINTAIN TIMING OF COLD FRONT
COMING INTO THE AREA LATE ON TUESDAY IN FUTURE RUNS.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE MAIN CONCERN IN THIS PERIOD IS THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FROM
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LATEST MODELS WERE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS
PERIOD...SHOWING A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES. ENERGY WITH THIS
TROUGH SPLITS INTO TWO PIECES. ONE SHOULD AFFECT THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND THE OTHER BRIEFLY BECOMES A CLOSED LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION. SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE ALONG AND BEHIND A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT.
GFS SEEMS TO HAVE TRENDED TOWARD YESTERDAYS ECMWF SOLUTION...AND THE
12Z GFS SHOWED 850 MB DEWPOINTS 0 TO 6 DEGREES C AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
LAPSE RATES ARE DECENT...AND 850 MB LIFTED INDICES DROP TO NEAR ZERO
TUESDAY NIGHT...SO SOME THUNDER APPEARS POSSIBLEIN SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA. CHANCES INCREASE FOR WEDNESDAY AND POTENTIAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ARE HIGHER...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST
IOWA.

EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY
IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KLNK AND KOFK.

MVFR CIGS CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER SERN SD AND TOWARD NERN NEB. WL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR BUT DID THROW IN A TEMPO MVFR CIG IN KOFK THIS
AFTERNOON. MID CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS
A SFC TROF MOVES TOWARD THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING A BRIEF SHIFT TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS AND A SMALL CHANCE FOR PCPN IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.
DID NOT INCLUDE ANY PCPN MENTION IN KOFK TAF BUT MAY BE NEEDED IN
LATER ISSUANCES. ANY PCPN THAT DOES FALL LOOKS TO REMAIN LIGHT.
SFC WINDS WL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST BY MID TO LATE MORNING AND
BECOME QUITE GUSTY INTO THE END OF THE TAF PD.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOBERT/MILLER/KERN




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HASTINGS NE

 1245 PM CST SAT MAR 3 2012

.UPDATE...MORNING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS REVEALS LONG WAVE
TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS...WITH NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL
FLOW OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW
ACROSS THE EAST. MID AND UPPER LEVEL JET ENERGY REMAINS RELEGATED TO
THE WEST...SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...BUT THERE IS AN
850MB-700MB JET STREAK ON THE ORDER OF 35-50KTS OVER OUR AREA. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS PRETTY MEAGER OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...ALTHOUGH THERE IS INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVANCING INTO PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A DEVELOPING CU FIELD OVER MUCH OF
NEBRASKA AS OF MIDDAY...WITH THESE CLOUDS BEGINNING TO OVERTAKE
OUR CWA. AT THE SURFACE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
DOMINATE OUR AREA...WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINING FROM THE
WEST/NORTHWEST AS A RESULT.

VERY STEEP LOW AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE HELPING PROMOTE EXPANSIVE
BUT SHALLOW CU DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA NOW...WITH KUEX
SHOWING SOME RETURNS OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA AS OF
1830Z. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM LAPS AND RUC ANALYSIS HOWEVER
INDICATE THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE REMAINS VERY DRY ACROSS OUR ENTIRE
CWA...THUS PREVENTING MUCH OF THIS PRECIPITATION FROM REACHING THE
SURFACE. WENT AHEAD AND INTRODUCED ISOLATED SPRINKLES TO THE AREA JUST
IN CASE A FEW DROPS OF RAIN CAN MAKE IT TO THE GROUND...BUT CERTAINLY
VIRGA AND OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.

FORECAST PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND
RUC ALL SUGGEST THE AFTERNOON BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE VERY DEEP
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MIXING RISING TO NEAR 700MB. BIGGEST
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN YESTERDAY AND TODAY IS THE SUBTLE INCREASE IN
MID LEVEL MOISTURE...WHICH IS RESULTING IN LITTLE TO NO DROP-OFF
IN AFTERNOON DEW POINTS AS FULL BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING COMMENCES.
WILL GO AHEAD AND FORECAST DEW POINTS TO HOLD NEAR STEADY ACROSS
THE CWA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE STILL FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE 40S TO LOW 50S...BUT THESE
TEMPERATURES WOULD BE EVEN WARMER IF NOT FOR THE EXPANSIVE CU
DEVELOPMENT CURRENTLY OVERTAKING THE AREA. ASSUMING THE CLOUD
COVER CAN INDEED KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN TO WHERE THEY ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST...THEN RESULTANT SURFACE RH VALUES SHOULD NOT DROP BELOW
21% OR 22% ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST...AND REMAIN EVEN HIGHER FARTHER
NORTHEAST. GIVEN ALL THIS...RFW ISSUANCE IS NOT PLANNED FOR
TODAY...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON.

DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AND STRONG WINDS BETWEEN 850MB AND 700
MB WILL PROMOTE ANOTHER BREEZY DAY ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS OUR WEST. THAT BEING SAID...GUIDANCE KEEPS ALL LOCATIONS ACROSS
OUR CWA UNDER WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...THUS NO WIND HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED TODAY.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1118 AM CST SAT MAR 3 2012/

AVIATION...18Z KGRI TAF. VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTERNOON CU NEAR 4000FT AGL WILL LIKELY BE
OBSERVED...WITH PERHAPS SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE AT
THE TERMINAL. WITH LOWER TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE SO LIMITED
HOWEVER...VIRGA IS MUCH MORE LIKELY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS. CU FIELD WILL DIMINISH TOWARDS SUNSET AS
DIABATIC HEATING IS LOST...BUT DEVELOPING CLOUDS NEAR 8000FT AGL
ARE THEN FORECAST BY 01Z...WITH CLOUDS THEN EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
12Z ONWARD. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON AT 20KTS...GUSTING TO AROUND 28KTS. SURFACE WINDS WILL
DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET AND THEN INCREASE ONCE AGAIN DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY. VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 522 AM CST SAT MAR 3 2012/

SHORT TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

LARGE SCALE PATTERN PUTS US GENERALLY WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW WITH
SMALL PERTURBATIONS SWIFTLY PASSING BY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
AS WE LIE BETWEEN RIDGING IN THE WEST AND TROUGH IN THE EAST. EACH
DAY SHOULD BE RATHER BREEZY WITH CONSIDERABLE MIXING ANTICIPATED.

FOR TODAY...MODELS/WATER VAPOR ARE STILL POINTING TOWARD A SMALL
SCALE PERTURBATION KICKING UP CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS ESPECIALLY
NORTHEAST...BUT SOUNDING ARE SO DRY AT LOWER LEVELS THAT I AM STILL
NOT PUTTING IN ANY PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME. WITH THE ADDITIONAL
ANTICIPATED SKY COVER...I EXPECT THAT THIS WILL AFFECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES EXCEPT IN THE SOUTH WHERE WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS
WILL PUT US SOMEWHAT CLOSE AGAIN TO FIRE WEATHER ISSUES...ALTHOUGH
NOT ENOUGH OF A SLAM DUNK TO ISSUE AN RFW.

SUNDAY LOOKS EVEN WINDIER AND COULD BE A WIND ADVISORY
DAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH. RIDGE IN THE WEST FLATTENS AND MOVES INTO
THE PLAINS FOR MONDAY...CAUSING TEMPERATURES TO SOAR WELL ABOVE
NORMAL. KEEPING A DRY FORECAST AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS COULD
APPROACH 20 PERCENT IN THE WEST AND SOUTH FOR EACH OF THE THREE DAYS
OF THIS FORECAST.

LONG TERM...12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 0Z SATURDAY.

BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH
0Z THURSDAY. BEGINNING 12Z TUESDAY. AT THE UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH
AXIS BEGINS TO SHIFT OFF THE EAST COAST WHILE THE MAJORITY OF THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE RIDGE.
ANOTHER TROUGH AXIS BEGINS TO DEEPEN ALONG THE WEST COAST. AT
H850...TEMPS NEAR 13 DEGREES CELSIUS SURGE ALONG THE RIDGE AXIS INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS ALLOWING MUCH OF THE REGION TO CLIMB INTO THE
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70S FOR HIGHS ON TUESDAY.

THESE WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER...AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE WEST COAST BEGINS TO PUSH EASTWARD BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF SUGGEST A STRONG COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH THROUGH THE PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING
CLEARING MUCH OF THE CWA BY 12Z. ALONG THE FRONT...SLIGHT CHANCES
FOR A RAIN SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
CWA. BEHIND THE FRONT...COOLER 850 TEMPS RANGING FROM -4 TO -6
DEGREES CELSIUS WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES MUCH COOLER ON TUESDAY.
DECIDED TO LOWER TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY NEAR MOS GUIDANCE WHICH
IS 20 TO 25 DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY.

THE ECMWF AND THE GFS BEGIN TO DIFFER QUITE A BIT BEGINNING ON
THURSDAY. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PUSHES ACROSS THE
CONUS...THE EC CLOSES A CUTOFF LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST US WHILE THE
MAIN TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES BEGINS TO
DEEPEN. AS A RESULT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS BY THURSDAY. COLDER 850S TEMPS NEAR -13 DEGREES CELSIUS
SURGE SOUTH ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO THE EASTERN CENTRAL PLAINS BY
THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH THIS SOLUTION...TEMPERATURES BOTH THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY WILL BE CONSIDERABLY COOLER...WITH FRIDAYS HIGH
TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND FREEZING. WIND SPEEDS AT 850 ARE ALSO NEAR
25 AND 30 KNOTS INDICATING A WINDY DAY ACROSS THE PLAINS.

WITH THE GFS SOLUTION...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ALSO DEVELOPS A CUTOFF
LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES...HOWEVER...THE MAIN TROUGH
AXIS DOES NOT DEEPEN QUITE AS MUCH.  THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM REMAINS WEAKER AND FARTHER NORTH THAN THE EC SOLUTION. BY
THURSDAY NIGHT...850 TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR 3 TO 5 DEGREES CELSIUS
CLIMBING TO NEAR 7 DEGREES CELSIUS ON FRIDAY. THE GFS SOLUTION
SUGGESTS HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY COULD BE NEAR 50 DEGREES AND
WIND SPEEDS COULD REMAIN UNDER 10 KTS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...BRYANT
SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...SALTZMAN





AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RALEIGH NC

 930 PM EST SUN MAR 4 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER LOW WILL TRACK EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTH
CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA BORDER LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...
BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. DRY HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE CAROLINAS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 930 PM SUNDAY...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ADJACENT
VIRGINIA BORDERING COUNTIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN
COASTAL PLAIN FROM 4AM TO NOON MONDAY.

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST TONIGHT AS MODELS CONTINUE TO
BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS.  THE UPPER LEVEL
JET MAX AND ASSOCIATED SHEAR VORTICITY ARE CURRENTLY DIGGING
SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN IL...AND PRECIP HAS BEGUN TO EXPAND FROM
AROUND PEORIA SOUTH TO NASHVILLE.  THE SURFACE LOW WAS ANALYZED NEAR
THE MO/IL/KY BORDER AREA...AGAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH WHERE 12Z
AND 18Z MODELS PROJECTED.  THE NEW 00Z/05 NAM SHOWS THE TRACK OF THE
SURFACE LOW NORTH OF ITS 18Z/04 RUNS...WITH THE LOW TRACKING CLOSER
TO THE NC/VA BORDER...AND THE FORECAST QPF ACCORDINGLY IS LESS ALONG
THE VA BORDER COUNTIES. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE 00Z/05 RUC ALSO.
HOWEVER...MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT UP TO THIS POINT... SO
WE WILL NOT ADJUST THE ADVISORY AND WILL ONLY MAKE SMALL REDUCTIONS
IN QPF AND SNOW TOTALS.  SOUTH OF WHERE THE LOW LEVEL FGEN BAND SETS
UP... STEEP 850-700MB LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT QUICK INSTABILITY
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS...BUT SHORTER DURATION AND SUBLIMATION SHOULD
PREVENT MUCH ACCUMULATION ALONG THE I-40 TO HWY 64 CORRIDORS JUST
SOUTH OF THE ADVISORY.

TEMPS ARE ALREADY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS THE
AREA...BUT SURFACE WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO STIR OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
AND MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER SYSTEM IS
RAPIDLY APPROACHING.  TEMPS SHOULD BE ABLE TO FALL A FEW MORE
DEGREES...BUT LOW 30S MAY NOT BE ATTAINABLE IN SOME WESTERN AREAS.

THE LOW WILL QUICKLY MOVE OFF THE OUTER BANKS BY MIDDAY...WITH
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND COLD DRY AIR ADVECTION CLEARING SKIES FROM
WEST TO EAST...WITH BREEZY NWLY WIND GUSTS OF 25KTS IN THE WAKE OF
THE EXITING CLIPPER LOW. CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S NORTH TO MID 50S SOUTH WILL
GO A LONG WAY IN MELTING ANY SNOW ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...

TO START THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...A STRONG CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE
DEPARTING THE REGION...WITH FAIRLY STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
(~1035 MB) BUILDING IN BEHIND IT AND THEN PERSISTING OVER THE REGION
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. AM EXPECTING EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL
CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH IS PROGGED TO BE
CENTERED DIRECTLY OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z TUESDAY MORNING.
OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 20S AREAWIDE
MONDAY NIGHT. THIS CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE AREA
FOR MOST OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY NOT ALLOWING FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF
TEMPERATURE MODERATION. THEREFORE...AM EXPECTING BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
ON TUESDAY...WITH TEMPS ONLY RISING INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ONLY MODERATE SLIGHTLY ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE
HIGH GRADUALLY BEGINS TO SHIFT OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...SKIES WILL STILL
BE MOSTLY CLEAR AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...LEADING TO ANOTHER NIGHT
OF GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. THEREFORE...AM EXPECTING
LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK....WHILE AS THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO
SHIFT OFFSHORE ON WEDNESDAY...BUT CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE AREA
THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN
RETURN FLOW SETTING UP AT THE LOW LEVELS AND THEREFORE A GRADUAL
MODERATION OF TEMPS AS WELL AS A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER.
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO MODERATE FROM THE MID 60S ON WEDNESDAY TO THE
LOWER 70S BY FRIDAY...WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GO FROM THE MID 40S
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO LOW 50S BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE WITH RESPECT TO THE EVOLVING SPLIT FLOW
PATTERN PROGGED TO FORM OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND THEREFORE
WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL APPROACH THE AREA BY THE END OF THE
WEEK OR EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. DUE TO THE HIGH LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY...
WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW HPC CLOSELY WHICH PREFERS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND.
THIS WOULD RESULT IN INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES BEGINNING FRIDAY (BUT
FOR NOW WILL NOT GO ANY HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY)...AND A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPS FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 700 PM SUNDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD FOR MUCH OF TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
HOWEVER AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS FAR NORTHERN NC OR ALONG THE NC/VA BORDER
AROUND 09Z THROUGH 19Z... INT/GSO/RDU/RWI WILL SEE THICK CLOUDS
BASED AROUND 3500-4000 FT AGL AND A PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS WITH AREAS
OF LIGHT SNOW. THE LOWEST 3 THOUSAND FEET WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT DRY
HOWEVER... WHICH WILL LIMIT HOW MUCH PRECIP REACHES THE GROUND AT
THESE AIRPORTS. AT THIS TIME... GROUND ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED TO
BE A DUSTING TO A HALF INCH AT MOST... MAINLY ON GRASSY AREAS.
(ACCUMULATIONS NEAR AN INCH ARE EXPECTED FURTHER NORTH NEAR THE VA
BORDER.) FAY CIGS WILL STAY ABOVE 4000 FT AGL AND LITTLE IF ANY
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED HERE AS VSBYS REMAIN VFR THROUGH MONDAY.
WINDS MAY BE PROBLEMATIC AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS JUST NORTH OF
INT/GSO/RDU/RWI. CURRENT WINDS FROM THE WNW WILL BACK TO
SOUTHWESTERLY THEN SOUTHERLY LATE TONIGHT... THEN BEHIND THE LOW
FROM LATE MORNING (INT/GSO) TO EARLY AFTERNOON (RDU/RWI/FAY)...
WINDS WILL AGAIN BECOME NORTHWESTERLY AT 13-16 KTS GUSTING TO 25-29
KTS THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE A NOTABLE
CROSSWIND AT GSO/RDU/FAY/RWI. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE TOWARD
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IN THE EARLY EVENING.

LOOKING BEYOND EARLY MONDAY EVENING (00Z TUESDAY)... HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH MIDWEEK... BRINGING VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
MAY BRING A PERIOD OF IFR CIGS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY
MORNING... AND AGAIN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING... BUT
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF THURSDAY/FRIDAY AS
WELL. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO NOON EST MONDAY FOR
NCZ007>011.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KC/GIH
NEAR TERM...CBL/SMITH
SHORT TERM...KRR
LONG TERM...KRR
AVIATION...HARTFIELD










AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON NC

 327 PM EST SAT MAR 3 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BY LATER TODAY...BUT CHILLY RAIN
WILL LINGER OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE COLD FRONT. MUCH COOLER
AND DRIER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY. A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN MID WEEK AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...FOR THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS INCLUDING USAGE
OF VARIOUS SAT IMAGERY CHANNELS...ISOPLETHING VARIOUS SFC PARAMETERS
OBTAINED FROM METAR OBSERVATIONS...AND THE ACTUAL AND HOURLY PROGGED
SFC WIND FIELD FROM THE HRRR MODEL. ALL OF THIS INDICATES THE COLD
FRONT HAS PUSHED TO THE DOORSTEPS OF THE ILM CWA. THE COLD FRONT
WILL STAGGER TO AND JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COASTS EARLY THIS EVENING.
MODELS INDICATE A BRIEF STATIONARY PHASE ALLOWING WEAK SFC LOWS
TO DEVELOP ALONG IT. THE LOWS WILL CONSOLIDATE INTO 1 AND BEGIN TO
ACCELERATE NE AWAY FROM THE U.S. MAINLAND BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
THIS ACCELERATION IS DUE TO A KIC-START OR PUSH FROM A RATHER POTENT
SOUTHERN STREAM S/W TROF THAT TRACKS FROM TX TO THE FLORIDA PAN
HANDLE BY SUNDAY DAYBREAK. WILL BE LOOKING AT STRATIFORM LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAINS THROUGHOUT THE NEAR TERM. HPC 24 HR RAINFALL
ESTIMATES THRU DAYBREAK SUN GIVES THE ILM CWA A RANGE OF
AMOUNTS...WITH 1 INCH WEST OF I-95...AND POSSIBLY UP TO 3 INCHES
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. CAA SURGE WILL BEGIN AFTER DAYBREAK
SUNDAY AS SEEN BY THE TIGHT GRADIENT OF 8H TEMPS AND THE 1K-8H
PARTIAL THICKNESSES. VARIOUS MODEL GUIDANCE COMPROMISED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL FINALLY LIFT OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST PULLING ANY LINGERING PCP ALONG WITH IT BY SUN
AFTN. PCP WATER VALUES DROP OUT FROM OVER AN INCH SUN MORNING TO
AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH BY DAYS END. OVERALL EXPECT A CLEARING
TREND THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

A DEEP W-NW FLOW SUN AFTN WILL BACK TO THE W-SW LATE SUN INTO
MONDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES DOWN AROUND THE LONGER WAVE MID
TO UPPER TROUGH. THIS CLIPPER WILL PRODUCE A LOW LEVEL REFLECTION
WHICH MODELS NOW SHOW AS LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST ALONG THE NC/VA
BORDER THROUGH MON AFTN BEFORE SHIFTING OFF SHORE BY MON EVENING.
LOOKS LIKE BEST SHORTWAVE ENERGY WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL SKIM BY
JUST TO THE NORTH OF OUR CWA. PCP WATER VALUES INCREASE UP NEAR A
HALF INCH WHICH BELIEVE WILL TRANSLATE INTO MORE IN THE WAY OF
CLOUDS THAN ANY PCP. WILL KEEP PCP NORTH CLOSER TO LOW AND WILL
LEAVE OUR DRY ON MONDAY AFTN. ONCE THE H5 TROUGH FINALLY CLEARS
THE COAST BY MON NIGHT A DEEP N-NW FLOW WILL SET UP. EXPECT A
REINFORCING SHOT OF DRY AND COOL AIR ON FRONT END OF HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM BUILDING EAST. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ALMOST OVERHEAD
BY END OF SHORT TERM PERIOD. OVERALL THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL
EXPERIENCE DRIER AND COOL WEATHER

AS FOR TEMPS...MAX CAA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY WITH 850 TEMPS
DROPPING DOWN NEAR -4C BY LATE SUN AFTN. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT
REBOUND ON MONDAY AS WINDS BACK TO THE W-SW AS LOW SKIRTS BY TO
THE NORTH HELPING TO BOOST MAX TEMPS ON MON...BUT ANOTHER SURGE WILL
OCCUR MON NIGHT WITH 850 TEMPS DROPPING AS LOW AS -6 BY MIDNIGHT.
COOLEST TEMPS WILL COME ON SUNDAY AS CLOUDS AND RAIN IN THE
MORNING WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 40S. BY SUN AFTN TEMPS SHOULD GET A
CHANCE TO RISE TO AROUND 50. ENOUGH RADIATIONAL COOLING THROUGH
SUN EVENING WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP AND ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE
SLIGHT WAA AFTER MIDNIGHT THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD NOT MIX MUCH OF
THIS DOWN AND SHOULD END UP WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 30S FOR LOWS.
WITH SLIGHT WAA AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON MONDAY...TEMPS WILL WARM
TO AROUND 60. MAY REMAIN SLIGHTLY COOLER NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES AS
CLOUDS MAY MOVE ACROSS IN THE AFTN ASSOCIATED WITH LOW TO THE
NORTH. TEMPS MON NIGHT WILL BE THE COOLEST AS ANOTHER SURGE OF
COLD AND DRY AIR WILL BE FOLLOWED BY DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE DAYBREAK...ALLOWING READINGS TO DROP CLOSE
TO FREEZING MOST PLACES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...DRY WITH A WARMING TREND EXPECTED THROUGH
LATE WEEK AS 500MB RIDGING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE EAST COAST. MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWS NO AGREEMENT FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...BUT THE NEXT
CHANCE OF RAIN WILL LIKELY OCCUR LATE FRIDAY/SATURDAY.

TUESDAY WILL FEATURE THE ONLY BELOW CLIMO DAY OF THE PERIOD DUE TO
COOL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN THE COAST CONTINUING WEAK CAA AND
LIGHT N/NE WINDS...AND TUE NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE MID 30S. HIGH
DRIFTS OFFSHORE BEGINNING WEDNESDAY BUT ELONGATES BACK TOWARDS THE
CAROLINAS THROUGH FRIDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...INVERTED TROUGH
DEVELOPS JUST OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY BEFORE PUSHING INLAND ON SYNOPTIC
EASTERLY FLOW THURSDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST AN INCREASE IN
LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER...WHILE MID LEVELS REMAIN EXTREMELY DRY AND
PWATS RISE TO ONLY AROUND ONE-HALF INCH...SO BELIEVE INHERITED DRY
FORECAST IS VALID. OTHER THAN ENHANCED CLOUD COVER...E/NE WINDS ON
LEE SIDE OF THIS TROUGH WILL ACT TO KEEP TEMPS A LITTLE BELOW
GUIDANCE...LOW/MID 60S WED AND NEAR 70 THU.

CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW FOR THE END OF THE WEEK DUE TO LACK OF MODEL
AGREEMENT. GFS CONTINUES ITS RUN-TO-RUN INCONSISTENCY SO WILL
PERSIST THE HPC/ECMWF BLEND WHICH SLOWLY RAMPS POP FRI NIGHT AND
SATURDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT. MOISTURE RETURN LOOKS
RATHER LIMITED AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY...WHICH WHEN COMBINED WITH THE
LACK OF CONFIDENCE PROMPTS ONLY SCHC THIS FAR OUT. TEMPS FRI REMAIN
WELL ABOVE CLIMO...POTENTIALLY FALLING MUCH COOLER SATURDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...WIDESPREAD RAIN IS OCCURRING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT LOCATED AT 15Z NORTHWEST OF KLBT. THE
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLO/LBT TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AND THE
COASTAL TERMINALS THIS EVENING WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTH.

THROUGH THE AFTERNOON EXPECT LIGHT RAIN AND VFR CONDITIONS WITH
TEMPO MVFR IN THE AREAS OF HEAVIER RAIN. REDUCED FLIGHT CONDITIONS
WILL BE MAINLY DUE TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES. THERE IS A CHANCE OF
IFR VISIBILITIES IN RAIN AT CRE/MYR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BUT SINCE
RADAR TRENDS INDICATE RAIN BECOMING LIGHTER DO NOT THINK THIS WILL
PERSIST.

LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT A SURFACE WAVE WILL MOVE UP THE
FRONT LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE SPREADING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ACROSS
THE TERMINALS. AHEAD OF THE SURFACE WAVE THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS DEVELOPING
BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THERE SHOULD BE A LESS CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS AT FLO/LBT. ALTHOUGH IFR VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE HEAVY RAIN...AS THE RAIN
SATURATES THE COOLER AIRMASS THE PROBABILITIES OF IFR CEILING
DEVELOPMENT WILL INCREASE WITH ALL TERMINALS IFR/LIFR BY
MIDNIGHT/EARLY MORNINGS. RAIN TAPERS OFF SUNDAY MORNING BUT WILL
ONLY INDICATE A SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS. FLIGHT
CONDITIONS COULD IMPROVE FASTER THAN ANTICIPATED IF THE SURFACE
WAVES MOVES FASTER UP THE COAST THAN EXPECTED.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR DEVELOPING SUNDAY AFTERNOON...CONTINUING
THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE STRONGLY WORDED
LATER TONIGHT AS CAA BEGINS TO FILTRATE INTO THE ILM COASTAL WATERS.
WILL BE LOOKING AT WINDS VEERING FROM SW 15 TO 25 KT TO THE NW AND N
AT 25 TO 30 KT WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 35 KT TOWARD DAYBREAK SUN.
LOOKING AT PROGGED 925MB WINDS...THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS STAY
MAINLY SOUTH OF THE ILM CWA. SEAS WILL RAMP UP TO 4 TO 7 FT...WITH 8
FOOTERS OVER THE OUTER WATERS OFF CAPE FEAR. AREAS TO WIDESPREAD
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS...LOWERING
VSBY TO 1 TO 3 NM AT TIMES.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
ON SUNDAY WITH STRONG NW WINDS BEHIND IT. ANY LINGERING PCP WILL
TAPER OFF THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS WINDS BEGIN TO BACK TO THE W-NW
AS FIRST SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE RIDES DOWN
THROUGH MAIN H5 TROUGH. WINDS MAY WEAKEN SLIGHTLY BY SUN AFTN TO
NEAR 20 KTS BUT MAY SEE ANOTHER SURGE IN WINDS UP NEAR 25 KTS BY LATE
SUNDAY. AS SECOND CLIPPER SYSTEM TRACKS EAST THROUGH MONDAY...THE
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS THE NC/VA BORDER. THIS
WILL ALLOW WINDS TO BACK EVEN FURTHER TO THE W-SW WHILE GRADIENT
INCREASES AGAIN. OVERALL EXPECT AN OFF SHORE NW FLOW SUN MORNING
UP AROUND 25 KTS AND THEN DECREASING SLIGHTLY BEFORE INCREASING
ONCE AGAIN AS WINDS BACK TO THE W-SW. WINDS AND SEAS IN THE OUTER
WATERS WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. SEAS WILL BE 5 TO 7 FT IN
OUTER WATERS TO START ON SUNDAY AND MAY DECREASE TO 4 TO 6 FT BUT
WILL INCREASE AGAIN THROUGH MONDAY AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS AS LOW
TRACKS BY TO THE NORTH. SHOULD SEE ANOTHER COLD SURGE BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM MON EVENING BUT OFFSHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW SEAS TO DROP BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS BY MON NIGHT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING OFFSHORE THE MID
ATLANTIC CREATES NE WINDS OF 10-15 KTS THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS BUILDS
2-4 FT NE WIND WAVES...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING THE SHADOWED REGION
SW OF FRYING PAN SHOALS...WHERE ONLY 1-2 FT SEAS WILL DEVELOP. HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTS FURTHER OFFSHORE WED/THURS...BUT CONTINUES TO RIDGE
BACK INTO THE CAROLINAS. THIS PRODUCES FAIRLY UNIFORM E/SE WINDS
AROUND 10 KTS...AND SEAS SLOWLY BUILDING TO 3-4 FT. INITIALLY THE
WAVE SPECTRUM WILL BE DOMINATED BY AN E/SE WIND CHOP...BUT GRADUALLY
AN AMPLIFYING SE SWELL WILL BUILD DUE TO INCREASINGLY LONG SE FETCH
AROUND HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-
     256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...MRR









AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS GRAND FORKS ND

 1148 PM CST FRI MAR 2 2012

.DISCUSSION...WILL ALLOW WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHEAST FA
EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT. WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED SLIGHTLY AND MOST
VISIBILITIES ARE NOW ABOVE 2SM...PLUS THE SNOWBANDS HAVE MOVED
EAST. DRIFTING SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE ICY ROADS...AND
MENTIONED THIS IN THE EXPIRATION STATEMENT.

WILL MAINTAIN THE WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR THE NE FA AS LIGHT SNOW
CONTINUES.

&&

.AVIATION...SLOW PROGRESSION OF SFC LOW AND PRESENCE OF WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE WILL KEEP CIGS/VSBY DOWN INTO MVFR/IFR TERRITORY
THRU THE TAF PERIOD (POSSIBLE VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON).

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 715 PM CST FRI MAR 2 2012/

DISCUSSION...WASKISH WAS REPORTING 1/4SM VSBY FOR THE PAST FEW
HOURS...AND MAKE SOME CALLS TO THAT AREA. IT APPEARS A HEAVY SNOW
BAND SET UP ACROSS NORTHERN BELTRAMI COUNTY AND SOUTHERN LAKE OF
THE WOODS COUNTY AND DROPPED 4-5 INCHES (OF COURSE RADAR
OVERSHOOTS THIS AREA). REPORTS AND OBS INDICATE VSBY IMPROVING...SO
THIS BAND MUST BE BREAKING UP. THIS AREA WAS IN A FAVORABLE
BANDING ENVIRONMENT...SO NOT TOTALLY SURPRISED. MODELS INDICATE
ANOTHER 1-3 INCHES POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT SO ISSUED A WINTER WX
ADVISORY. THESE TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS ARE CLOSE TO WARNING
CRITERIA...BUT THINK SINCE CURRENT HEAVY BAND IS OVER...AND
REMAINDER OF SNOW WILL FALL OVER A 12 HOUR PERIOD THAT ADVISORY IS
THE WAY TO GO. UPDATED GRIDS AND PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

CONDITIONS ARE SLOWLY IMPROVING ACROSS THE OTHER WINTER WX
ADVISORY...BUT STILL SOME REPORTS OF POOR VSBY IN OPEN COUNTRY AND
WILL LET THIS ADVISORY RIDE FOR A WHILE LONGER...ESPECIALLY SINCE
IT IS NOW DARK.

DO NOT PLAN ANOTHER UPDATE UNLESS IT IS NEEDED.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 501 PM CST FRI MAR 2 2012/

DISCUSSION...WINDS HAVE INCREASED ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA SUSTAINED AROUND 30 MPH. CALLS TO LAW ENFORCEMENT AND WEB
CAMS INDICATE THAT VISIBILITIES IN OPEN COUNTRY ARE 1/2SM OR LESS
AT TIMES ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY DUE TO
MAINLY BLOWING SNOW. THUS...WILL EXPAND THE WINTER WX ADVISORY
INTO THIS AREA FOR BLOWING SNOW. VISIBILITIES REMAIN DECENT ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST FA...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF BLOWING SNOW
BEGINS TO CAUSE PROBLEMS AS THE TEMPERATURE DROPS (AS IT DID
ACROSS THE NORTH WHEN THE SNOW STARTED BLOWING AROUND). WILL
MONITOR THIS AREA...JUST NOT SURE IF WINDS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH
BY THE TIME THE TEMPS ACTUALLY DROP.

THE WET ROADS FROM THE AFTERNOON ARE BECOMING ICY AS WELL.

UPDATED FORECAST TO EXPAND AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW INTO THE NEW
ADVISORY AREA...AND PATCHY BLOWING SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST FA.
INCREASED WIND SPEEDS A BIT. CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION...925MB
WINDS 30-35 KNOTS...AND INCREASED SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD
KEEP ELEVATED WINDS THROUGH MIDNIGHT (EVEN WITH LOSS OF SOLAR).

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 218 PM CST FRI MAR 2 2012/

SHORT TERM...
WINDS INCREASING OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING AND WILL MAINTAIN WINTER WX ADVISORY OVER THE FAR NORTH AS
VSBYS REMAIN POOR. AREAS FROM LANGDON TO CAVALIER AND WALHALLA
RECEIVED AROUND 5 OR 6 INCHES OF FRESH SNOW FROM LAST EVENING INTO
THIS MORNING AND THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE CAUSE REDUCED
VISIBILITY DUE TO BLOWING SNOW.

CANADIAN AND US RADAR COMPOSITE SHOWS THE MAIN SNOW BANDS NOW
WEAKENING OVER THE AREA WITH JUST LIGHT SNOW CONTINUING TO MOVE
SOUTH AND WRAP AROUND THE 500 MB LOW WHICH IS OVER GRAND FORKS AT
19Z. EXPECT TO SEE CONTINUED LIGHT SNOW INTO THE EVENING WITH A
GRADUAL SPREAD EAST IN TIME AND ENDING FROM THE WEST AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES. AN INCH OR SO IN NORTHWEST MN TONIGHT SEEMS REASONABLE
WITH LESS THAN THAT IN OTHER AREAS. FOR THE HEAVIER SNOWPACK AREAS
OF THE SOUTHERN VALLEY BLOWING SNOW SHOULD NOT BE A HUGE ISSUE AS
THE SNOW PACK IS QUITE HEAVY FROM PREV WET SNOW AND SNOWFALL THIS
AFTN-EVE NOT ENOUGH TO CAUSE ISSUES. BUT EVE SHIFT CAN MONITOR.
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY TO 35 MPH AT TIMES...WITH RUC AND OTHER SHORT
TERM MODELS SHOWING MIXING UP TO NR 925 MB WHERE WINDS WILL BE
30-35 KTS THRU 06Z. BORDERLINE WIND ADVISORY....BUT SUSTAINED
LIKELY JUST BLO THRESHOLDS.

WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST INTO ERN ND SATURDAY
WITH SOME CLEARING EXPECTED OVER ERN ND INTO THE VALLEY. DEPARTING
SYSTEM WILL GENERATE LEFTOVER LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES IN FAR EASTERN
FCST AREA UNTIL NOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO MN SAT NIGHT.
DID REMOVE THE WIDESPREAD LOW POPS WE HAD IN THE FCST FOR ERN ND
INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY AND REMOVED POPS FOR NW MN SAT
AFTN-NIGHT. WITH HIGH OVERHEAD AND POTENTIAL FOR CLEARING LOOKS
CHILLY AT NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
IN MANY AREAS.

NEXT THREAT FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL BE OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT
AND INTO SUNDAY MAINLY OVER ERN ND INTO THE SRN VALLEY AS A WEAK
SHORT WAVE DROPS THRU CNTRL ND INTO ERN SD/SW MN. PRECIP WITH THIS
SYSTEM QUITE WEAK.

HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN SUN NIGHT THEN WINDS WILL TURN SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY AS A STORM SYSTEM GATHERS STRENGTH OVER
ALBERTA. THIS SHOULD BRING MILDER AIR INTO THE REGION.

LONG TERM (MON NIGHT-FRI)...
MODELS INITIALIZED WELL THIS RUN...BUT SOME DIFFERENCES SHOWING UP
IN PLACEMENT OF THE SFC FRONT FOR TUESDAY. OVERALL TRENDS STILL LOOK
GOOD FOR SHIFT TO A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD. THUS...CONTINUED TO LOOK AT A BLEND FOR THE GENERAL TIMING
OF THE FEATURES. THE 500HPA RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST WITH
THICKNESS VALUES INCREASING...SO EXPECTING TEMPS TO BE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...LOOK FOR
ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE
PCPN.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR MNZ006-009.

&&

$$
TG






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHARLESTON WV

 1252 AM EST SAT MAR 3 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH COLD FRONT LATE FRIDAY...SOME STORMS
COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE. COOLER WEATHER ESTABLISHES FOR THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE...
THINGS FINALLY SETTLING DOWN AFTER ONE OF THE MORE ACTIVE DAYS
SEEN AROUND THE CWA. LAPS DATA SHOWS THE COLD FRONT PLOWING INTO
THE MOUNTAINS...AND WILL SEE WINDS INCREASING BEHIND THE FRONT.
HELD POPS IN OVER THE MOUNTAINS...AND HAVE WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
TRENDS OF HOLDING THE MOISTURE OVER THIS AREA THROUGH AROUND THE
12Z TIME FRAME. THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED HOWEVER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT
AND MOISTURE PUNCH HAVE BEEN ONGOING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SINCE
MID MORNING. WRFNMM...HRRR...AND CURRENT RADAR HAVE SOME SMALL
TIMING DIFFERENCES...HOWEVER ALL AGREE THAT THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN
THE SHOWERS AND STORMS FOLLOWING THE WARM FRONT...PRIOR TO THE COLD
FRONT ARRIVING LATER THIS EVENING. RECENT RUC BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW
JUST OVER 500J/KG CAPE IN EASTERN KY/WESTERN WV AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT LATER THIS EVENING...SO STILL THINKING STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WITH THE TIME OF DAY THE
STORMS ARE EXPECTED...WE MAY SEE DECREASING THERMODYNAMICS AS THE
STORMS MOVE INTO CENTRAL WV. HOWEVER WITH PLENTY OF SHEAR AND
DYNAMIC LIFT FROM THE FRONT...STORMS SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO SUPPORT
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL...AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED TORNADO.

COLD FRONT PASSAGE EXPECTED FROM FROM NW TO SE AROUND 03-06Z
TONIGHT. PRECIP CHANCES DECREASE QUICKLY AFTER THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH.

NOT A REAL STRONG COLD PUNCH IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE FRONT...AND WITH
SOME GUSTY WINDS HANGING AROUND...WILL REMAINED WELL MIXED SO TEMPS
SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY MOST OF THE NIGHT WITH A GRADUALLY
DECREASE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. TRENDED TOWARDS THE MET
AND THEN MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO HOLD THE TEMPS STEADIER AT FIRST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
CAA REGIME SETTING UP FOR THE WEEKEND. SAT SHOULD SEE SUN EARLY
BEFORE STRONGER CAA LATE IN THE DAY ALLOWS FOR STRATOCU AND CU TO
DEVELOP AS UPR TROF PIVOTS IN. DESPITE H85 TEMPS -2 TO -6....THINK
ENOUGH MIXING WILL OCCUR FOR THE WARMER NUMBERS OFF GUIDANCE TO
BECOME REALIZED. FLOW COMES MORE CONDUCIVE FOR UPSLOPE SUN INTO SUN
NIGHT AS UPR TROF AXIS SWINGS THRU. INHERITED SNOW/POP GRIDS
GENERALLY LOOKED GOOD AND ONLY NEEDED SOME FINESSING. ALLOWED FOR A
HIGH THRESHOLD FOR RAIN/SNOW DURING DAY SUN BASED ON TEMPS ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THIS PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY AN EXITING UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING IN TUE...FOLLOWED BY THE
POSSIBILITY OF A COLD FRONT IN THE AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT MON EVE-WED...DEPICTING
THE EXITING SHORTWAVE WHICH WILL AFFECT OUR AREA SUN-EARLY MON
FOLLOWED BY UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS TUE-WED.
THOUGH TUE MORNING WILL BE RATHER COLD...THE PERIOD WILL BE DRY WITH
A WARMING TREND BEGINNING TUE AFTERNOON. BY LATE WED MODEL OUTPUT
BEGINS TO DIFFER WITH RESPECT TO THE SPEED OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL U.S. AND ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THE GFS DEPICTS A MUCH QUICKER PROGRESSION
WITH COLD FRONT ABOUT OVER OUR FORECAST AREA BY 06Z-12Z THU WITH
NICE WEATHER FRI...WHILE THE EC SHOWS A MUCH SLOWER PROGRESSION WITH
THE COLD FRONT OVER THE AREA FRIDAY. GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND ITS
MEMBERS...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE CANADIAN...IN MUCH BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH SLOWER SOLUTION AND WILL THUS LEAN THE FORECAST FOR
THIS TIME FRAME TOWARDS THE EC WITH THURSDAY HAVING AN INCREASE IN
HIGH CIRRUS WITH THE NEXT SHOT A SHOWERS COMING ON FRIDAY WITH THE
FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHOWERS AND REMAINING ISOLATED THUNDER CURRENTLY IN THE
MOUNTAINS...AND COULD LINGER THERE THROUGH 12Z. WILL ALSO CONTEND
WITH SOME LINGERING MVFR CEILINGS UNTIL THE FRONT CAN FINALLY
CLEAR THE AREA. WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT WITH GUSTS
FROM 20-30KTS INTO SATURDAY...WITH A GRADUAL EASING OF THESE
VELOCITIES INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE
RETURN...AND COULD SEE MVFR CEILINGS BACK IN PLAY TOWARDS THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD/06Z TIME FRAME.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MAY SEE CEILING AND VISIBILITIES BOUNCE FROM
MVFR TO VFR AT EKN AND BKW WITH SHOWERS LINGERING THERE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                   SAT 03/03/12
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EST 1HRLY       01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    H    M    H    H    M    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    H    L    M    M    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    M    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
MVFR TO IFR POSSIBLE IN MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH
SUNDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR WVZ005-
     006-013>015-024>027-033>038-046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR KYZ105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR VAZ003-
     004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MZ/GG/30
NEAR TERM...MZ/26
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...GG
AVIATION...26









AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NASHVILLE TN

 903 PM CST SUN MAR 4 2012

.DISCUSSION...SFC LOW IS LOCATED NEAR PADUCAH KY AND HAS BEEN
MOVING TOWARD THE SE DURING THE PREVIOUS 4-5 HOURS. IT IS EXPECTED
TO SOON TAKE A MORE EASTERLY COURSE...ALONG THE TN/KY BORDER.
CURRENTLY RAIN IS BEING OBSERVED IN NRN KY ALONG THE OH RIVER WITH
SNOW FURTHER NORTH OVER CENTRAL IL. SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED LATER THIS EVENING. RADAR IS SHOWING SOME REFLECTIVITY
OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER...WITH SFC DEWPOINTS STILL IN THE 20S...IT
WILL TAKE A WHILE FOR OUR ATMOSPHERE TO MOISTEN UP ENOUGH TO GET
RAIN AT THE GROUND.

LOCAL WRF MODEL AND THE HRRR ARE SHOWING PROJECTED REFLECTIVITY
CROSSING MAINLY THE NERN HALF OF THE AREA TONIGHT WITH ONLY MINOR
AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION. ANY PRECIP WILL BE LIQUID WITH TEMPS IN
THE BOUNDARY LAYER STILL IN THE 40S. LATER TONIGHT WHEN SFC TEMPS
DROP INTO THE MID 30S...LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE. LITTLE OR NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

WILL LEAVE ZONES ALONE FOR NOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 542 PM CST SUN MAR 4 2012/

UPDATE...AVIATION.

AVIATION...00Z TAFS.
DISTURBANCE ALOFT W/COLD AIR EXPECTED TO TRIGGER SCT RW- AT
KCKV/KBNA LATE EVE-EARLY AM. AT KCSV...COLDER AIR EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE SOME -SHSN AFT MIDNIGHT. CIGS WL LOWER TO MVFR AFTER
PASSAGE OF SYSTEM WITH COLDER H8 TEMPS. LOW CIGS WL HANG THROUGH
MUCH OF THE MORNING...BUT PCPN WL DEPART.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 232 PM CST SUN MAR 4 2012/

DISCUSSION...
CLIPPER SYSTEM CURRENTLY DIVING DOWN THROUGH MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WITH LOW CENTER OVER KANSAS CITY AT 19Z. SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS TIGHT ENOUGH ACROSS THE MID STATE FOR A FEW WIND
GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 30 MPH RANGE. MODELS FORECAST CLIPPER LOW TO
TRACK DOWN THROUGH EXTREME SOUTHERN ILLINOIS THEN INTO WESTERN
KENTUCKY AND ACROSS SOUTHERN KENTUCKY. CLIPPER WILL PULL ENOUGH
MOISTURE NORTHWARD FOR SOME SPRINKLES...LIGHT RAINSHOWERS MAINLY
NORTHERN AREAS OF MID STATE THROUGH EVENING BECOMING MIXED WITH
LIGHT SNOW NORTHEAST MIDDLE AND PLATEAU BECOMING ALL SNOW LATE
NIGHT AND AROUND DAYBREAK ON UPPER END OF PLATEAU. A DUSTING IS
POSSIBLE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40 COOKEVILLE TO CROSSVILLE. COULD
SEE A HALF INCH FENTRESS AND PICKETT BUT GROUND TEMPS WILL DICTATE.
CLIPPER CLEARS MID STATE QUICKLY AFTER DAYBREAK ON MONDAY WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S ON MONDAY. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION ON TUESDAY WITH TEMPS BACK UP INTO THE 60S FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK. GFS AND EURO CONTINUE TO DIFFER WITH NEXT SYSTEM
COMING OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERN US ALONG THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE
POLAR JET...BUT BASCIALLY WENT WITH POPS BEGINNING ON THURSDAY AND
CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES INTO WEEKEND. THURSDAY THROUGH WEEKEND
LOOKS BE AN UNSETTLED PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      36  47  29  64 /  40  05   0   0
CLARKSVILLE    34  47  28  65 /  30  05   0  05
CROSSVILLE     33  41  26  57 /  60  10   0  05
COLUMBIA       38  49  31  65 /  30  05   0   0
LAWRENCEBURG   39  50  31  65 /  20  05   0  05
WAVERLY        36  49  30  65 /  30  05   0  05

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

18






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BLACKSBURG VA

 1158 PM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST HAD A WARM FRONT EXTENDING
EAST INTO THE CAROLINAS AND COLD FRONT TRAILING BACK INTO TEXAS.
THIS LOW WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE RAPIDLY NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT
LAKES BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE EAST
COAST BY LATE SATURDAY. COOLER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR SUNDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM EST FRIDAY...

UPDATED TO ADJUST LOW TEMPS BASED ON CURRENT COLD READINGS ONGOING
WITHIN THE WEDGE AND TO SPEED UP POPS WITH THE INBOUND CONVECTION
TO THE WEST. STILL IFFY AS TO HOW FAR EAST ANY OF THE STRONGER
CELLS WILL MAKE IT GIVEN SUCH DIFFERENCES IN STABILITY/THETA-E ACROSS
THE WESTERN SLOPES. HOWEVER LOOKS LIKE DYNAMICS AND WIND FIELDS
ALOFT MAY BE ENOUGH TO PUSH SOME OF THESE CELLS INTO THE FAR
WESTERN ZONES BEFORE THEY FADE OR BECOME ELEVATED SO KEEPING
STRONG WIND MENTION THERE AS WELL AS THE GOING FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
LATEST HRRR ALSO A BIT FASTER IN BRINGING THE INITIAL BAND OF
CONVECTION INTO THE FAR NW BY 10-11 PM...THEN SLOWING A BIT OR
REDEVELOPING OVER THE SW ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT WHERE INSTABILITY
MAY START TO RECOVER AS DEEPENING WARM ADVECTION TO THE SW STARTS
TO WIN OUT. ELSW FEW CHANGES WITH WHATS LEFT OF THE CONVECTIVE
BANDS EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST TOWARD THE BLUE RIDGE AND WEAKEN
BEFORE LIKELY REDEVELOPING IN THE PIEMDONT LATE AS WHATS LEFT OF
THE WEDGE GIVES WAY. EXPECT TEMPS ABOUT AT THEIR LOW POINT ATTM
WITH READINGS LIKELY TO RISE AND PERHAPS QUICKLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
THE DEEPER WARMING AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARRIVES.

AS OF 330 PM EST FRIDAY...

DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EXPECTED TO
TRACK NORTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT WITH TRAILING FRONT TO
DRIVE SOUTHEAST AND ACRS THE CWA LATE TONIGHT. MEANWHILE OVERRUNNING
RAINFALL AND EMBEDDED CONVECTION TO THE NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT
LOCATED ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING AS INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR
IS LIFTED NORTHEAST WITH THE STRONG H85 MOISTURE TRANSPORT. PWATS
SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY QUITE HIGH WITH 1.1 TO 1.3 INCHES
OR UP TO 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL. LOCAL WRF SHOWS THIS SCATTERED
ACTIVITY PERSISTING WELL INTO THE EVENING AND THEN THE MAIN FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ENTERING THE CWA AROUND 05Z IN THE FAR WEST AND EXITING THE
SOUTHEAST CWA AROUND 12Z. NAM A LITTLE SLOWER AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH
HEAVIEST RAINFALL. STILL EXPECT A ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WITH STRONG SHEAR EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE
ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE LESSENING. RAINFALL RATES UP TO 1 TO 2
INCHES AN HOUR ALONG THE FRONT WILL OCCUR IN AREAS THAT HAVE
RECEIVED ALREADY FROM 0.25 TO 0.75 INCHES TODAY...BASICALLY THE AREA
UNDER THE CONTINUING FLASH FLOOD WATCH WHICH THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE RUNOFF PROBLEMS.

AFTER FRONT CLEARS TOMORROW MORNING WINDS SHIFT INTO NORTHWEST AND
BECOME GUSTY WITH FAIRLY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION. UNDER PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES H85 TEMPS FALL FROM +10C AROUND 06Z TO -4C IN THE NW BY
15-18Z ALTHOUGH WARMER TO THE SE. SHOULD YIELD HIGHS FROM NEAR 50 NW
TO 60 SE BUT WILL FEEL A COOLER WITH THE WIND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EST FRIDAY...

CLIPPER WAVE IN THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE THE MOST
NOTABLE FEATURE OF THIS PERIOD. AT THIS TIME RANGE...MODELS ARE
TYPICALLY TOO DRY WITH THESE SYSTEMS IF H85 TEMPS ARE COLD
ENOUGH...USUALLY AROUND -8C. THIS APPEARS TO BE THE CASE FOR NW
NC...SE WV OR EXTREME SW VA. HARD TO PINPOINT THE CLIPPER`S TRACK AS
IT WILL FLUCTUATE NORTH AND SOUTH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A 1 TO 4 INCH SNOWFALL BLF/JFZ/GEV/TNB
CORRIDOR...MAYBE AS FAR NORTH AS WYTHEVILLE OR FLOYD COUNTY LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING. OF COURSE WE WILL BE FIGHTING
A WARM GROUND. ALTHOUGH THE PROFILE ISN`T AS COLD...THIS DISTURBANCE
IS TAKING A SIMILAR PATH AND IS A LITTLE WEAKER THAN THE STORM WHICH
DUMPED A SURPRISE SEVERAL INCHES ON FLOYD COUNTY SEVERAL WEEKS AGO.
WITH CONTINUED CAA BEHIND THE WAVE MONDAY TEMPS WILL PROBABLY GO NO
WHERE OR ONLY RISE A FEW DEGREES IN THE MOUNTAINS...SO MAX T WAS
LOWERED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 207 PM EST THURSDAY...

STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ANCHOR ITSELF ALONG THE EAST
COAST THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...MAY BE THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL THEN SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION AS EARLY AS THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT
MORE LIKELY FRIDAY. THE GFS IS QUICK WITH THIS FRONT WHILE HPC/ECMWF
ARE SLOWER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRIDAY. KEEP POPS AT A CHANCE
WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONAL ON TUESDAY THEN MODERATE ABOVE NORMAL
WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY COULD BE 10F-15F ABOVE
NORMAL AND POSSIBLY WARMER ON FRIDAY IF RAIN HOLDS OFF UNTIL THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1130 PM EST FRIDAY...

RESIDUAL CONVECTIVE BAND NOW HEADING OUT TO THE BLUE RIDGE WITH
AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. HOWEVER WEDGE CONTINUES TO
HOLD TIGHT EXCEPT AT KBLF WHERE HAVE BRIEFLY MIXED OUT INTO THE
WARM AIR. THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INCREASING RAINFALL RESULTING
IN WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CIGS...AND MVFR VSBYS IN FOG ATTM. GIVEN
STRONGER PUSH OF WARM AIR ALOFT AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVERNIGHT EXPECTING
CIGS TO REMAIN LOW WITH IFR OR EVEN AREAS OF LIFR UNTIL THE WARM
AIR BECOMES DEEP ENOUGH TO SCOUR OUT THE LOWER CIGS MAINLY
EAST...LIKELY WHEN THE PRE- FRONTAL CONVECTION ARRIVES LATER THIS
EVENING. THUS KEEPING POOR FLYING CONDITIONS IN CLOUDS/FOG FOR A
WHILE OVERNIGHT WITH A MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF SHRA/TSRA PUSHING
ACROSS THE BLUE RIDGE AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN EASTERN SECTIONS
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WINDS ALOFT WILL REMAIN VERY
STRONG RESULTING IN CONTINUED LLWS FOR MOST SPOTS UNTIL BETTER
MIXING ARRIVES WITH THE CONVECTION BY MORNING.

ACTUAL COLD FRONT LOOKS TO PUSH THROUGH MOST OF THE REGION BETWEEN
1 AM AND DAYBREAK...WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST DURING THE
LATE NIGHT HOURS. WINDS WILL BE STRONG AND GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT
BUT CEILINGS SHOULD BE LIFTING AFTER DAYBREAK ON SATURDAY. STRONG
MIXING BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD COMBINE WITH GOOD DRYING TO PROMOTE
A RETURN TO VFR ALL AREAS AFTER MID MORNING SAT. HOWEVER SURFACE
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN STRONG WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS OR MORE ESPCLY
KBLF TO KROA SAT AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE BRINGS A SECONDARY FRONT AND COLDER AIR IN FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. EXPECT MOUNTAIN RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS WITH MVFR CEILINGS...ESPECIALLY AT BLF AND LWB SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRIER AIR AND VFR CONDITIONS
BUILDS IN FOR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HPC HAS MAINTAINED SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ALONG OUR
ABOUT OUR WESTERN CWA BORDER WITH RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 1.5
INCHES PER HOUR POSSIBLE IN THE OVERNIGHT STORMS. FLASH FLOOD
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN COUNTIES WHICH IS ALSO WHERE
HEAVIER RAIN FELL EARLIER THIS WEEK. TOTAL QPF NOT EXPECTED TO BE
BE TOO HIGH...GENERALLY LESS THAN 1 INCH BUT WITH HIGH RATE
RAINFALL IN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT COULD
SEE RAPID RUNOFF IN SOME AREA. SMALL STREAMS MAY RESPOND RAPIDLY
IN THE WATCH AREA.

LARGER RIVERS ARE NEARING CREST NOW ON THE MIDDLE JAMES AND
FALLING RAPIDLY ON THE GREENBRIER AND UPPER JAMES. FORECAST
RAINFALL NOT EXPECTED TO BRING RIVERS BACK TO FLOOD STAGE BUT MAY
PROLONG RECESSION BY 12 TO 24 HOURS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR VAZ007-019-020.
NC...NONE.
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR WVZ042>045.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PC
NEAR TERM...JH/PC
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...KM
AVIATION...JH/PC/WERT
HYDROLOGY...







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

 602 PM CST SUN MAR 4 2012

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
231 PM CST SUN MAR 4 2012

THE MAIN STORY IN THE SHORT TERM IS WITH THE WARM UP TOMORROW INTO
WEDNESDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND BRINGS
SOME RAIN WITH IT.

CURRENTLY...TWO BANDS OF SNOW HAVE SANDWICHED THE REGION WITH THE
MORE INTENSE SNOW SKIRTING THE FORECAST AREA TO THE SOUTHWEST
THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND CENTRAL TO EASTERN IOWA.
VISIBILITY HAS DROPPED TO A QUARTER OF A MILE AT TIMES IN THIS
REGION...BUT THE BACK EDGE OF IT IS ALREADY INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
MINNESOTA AND SHOULD CLEAR NORTHEAST IOWA BY 00Z TONIGHT. ANOTHER
PESKY BAND OF LIGHT SNOW HAS BEEN PARKED ALONG AN INVERTED SURFACE
TROUGH AXIS THAT RUNS FROM JUST SOUTH OF MADISON NORTH-NORTHWEST
TOWARD BLACK RIVER FALLS. THIS SNOW BAND HAS LEAD TO SOME MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS THOUGH THE SNOW RATIOS ARE SO HIGH THAT THERE IS
LITTLE MELTED EQUIVALENT WITH IT MAKING FOR A VERY FLUFFY AND
LIGHT SNOW. THE QUESTION GOING INTO TONIGHT IS HOW LONG WILL THIS
SNOW PERSIST WITH THE INVERTED TROUGH LINGERING UNTIL THE SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS MOVES IN AROUND 9Z OR SO. 04.12Z NAM AND 04.18Z RUC
SOUNDINGS INDICATE STEEP LAPSE RATES GOING THROUGH THE DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE AT LEAST THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN
BUT WEAKENING AFTER 6Z AS THE RIDGE MOVES IN. THEREFORE...HAVE
HELD ONTO SOME LIGHT SNOW INTO TONIGHT AND KEPT CLOUD COVER AROUND
ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN UNTIL THE RIDGE MOVES IN.

THE RIDGE AXIS PASSING THROUGH WILL MARK THE TRANSITION TO A
WARMING TREND AS WINDS COME AROUND TO THE SOUTH AT THE SURFACE.
THE LOW LEVEL WARM AIR STARTS ADVECTING IN ON MONDAY WITH A MID
LEVEL CLOUD DECK LIKELY COMING IN ALONG WITH IT. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM BACK TO NORMAL ON MONDAY AND LIKELY STAY STEADY OR NOT DROP
MUCH GOING INTO MONDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF
THE WEEK WITH SUNNY SKIES...GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS...AND THE
CORE OF THE WARMEST LOW LEVEL AIR OVERHEAD. THE MAIN HINDRANCES
WILL BE WITH SNOW COVER AND WHETHER ANY STRATUS FORMS UNDER THE
STOUT INVERSION. THE DEEPEST SNOW IS UP ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN WHERE OVER A FOOT OF SNOW IS STILL ON THE GROUND NEAR
MEDFORD WHICH WILL LIKELY HOLD BACK TEMPERATURES A BIT. THE
04.12Z NAM AND GFS ALSO HINT AT SOME MOISTURE POOLING UNDER THE
INVERSION...BUT ANY LIFT IS ABOVE THIS LAYER...SO ANY STRATUS
SHOULD NOT FORM. OTHERWISE...NOT MUCH CHANGE TEMPERATURE-WISE
FROM WHAT WE HAVE BEEN THINKING THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH THE
GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING 850MB TEMPERATURES RISING TO +10C ON
TUESDAY WITH 850MB TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES OF +1.5 TO +2C ABOVE THE
NORM. THUS...HAVE MADE LITTLE TO NO CHANGES FOR THE FORECAST
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S IN
THE SNOW FREE AREAS AND SOME SPOTS POSSIBLY TAGGING 60.

THE FOCUS THEN GOES TO A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON
WEDNESDAY AND PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR SOME PRECIPITATION. THE TREND
HAS BEEN TO BE A TAD SLOWER WITH THE PROGRESSION EASTWARD OF THE
FRONT AND WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT...SO
HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE CHANCES UNTIL AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN
FORCING FOR THIS FEATURE IS WITH THE LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS THAT
SHOWS UP AHEAD AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT BETWEEN THE SURFACE AND
850MB. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES QUITE A BIT THROUGH
THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND BRINGS PRECIPITABLE WATER UP TO AROUND 200
PERCENT OF NORM. CHANCES FOR THUNDER LOOK MINIMAL AT THIS POINT
LITTLE TO NO INSTABILITY DEVELOPING ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. THE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL MAINLY
FALL AS RAIN...THOUGH IT COULD TURN INTO A MIX ON THE BACK SIDE OF
IT IF THERE STILL IS SOME FORCING AROUND THOUGH IT APPEARS THAT
THE FRONTOGENETIC CIRCULATION/FORCING ENDS FAIRLY QUICKLY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
231 PM CST SUN MAR 4 2012

THE FOCUS GOING INTO THE LATER PORTION OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND IS WITH HOW MUCH COLD AIR WOULD GET PULLED DOWN ACROSS THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION. THE GFS APPEARS TO BE THE
LEADER OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS AS IT WAS THE WARMER SOLUTION AND
KEPT A CUT OFF LOW DOWN ALONG THE GULF COAST NEXT WEEKEND. THE
04.12Z GFS HAS STAYED WITH THIS SOLUTION AND BRINGS THE LOW BACK
NORTHWARD UP THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ON SUNDAY. THE 04.00Z ECMWF
CAME AROUND TO THIS SOLUTION AND BACKED OFF OF ITS EARLIER IDEAS
OF BRINGING COLD AIR AND THE RIDGE ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE GULF.
BOTH THE 04.12Z GFS AND ECMWF ARE NOW IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH CUTTING OFF THE LOW DOWN ALONG THE GULF AND DRIFTING IT BACK
NORTHWARD SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN BRINGS
RAIN BACK UP INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY...PERHAPS EVEN SATURDAY
NIGHT. OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL STAY RIGHT AROUND NORMAL
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK BEFORE WARMING UP AHEAD OF THE
LOW NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...TONIGHT AND MONDAY
602 PM CST SUN MAR 4 2012

AS OF 00Z...POCKET OF MVFR CEILINGS EXISTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA...SURROUNDED BY VFR CEILINGS ACROSS WISCONSIN AND
CENTRAL MINNESOTA. WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING IN AND LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR AT KRST BY MID
EVENING...WHILE AT KLSE...CLEARING WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL NEAR
MIDNIGHT.

MAIN QUESTION IS HOW A MVFR/VFR DECK ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA
EVOLVES ONCE IT PROGRESSES SOUTHEASTWARD. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS FRONT EDGE ERODING AND THE RUC 925 MB RH FIELDS AND HRRR
CLOUD BASE HEIGHTS DEPICT THE MAIN AREA OF CLOUDS POTENTIALLY
REACHING KRST BY MIDNIGHT OR SLIGHTLY LATER. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH
TO INCLUDE IN TAFS...AND LATER GUIDANCE SHOULD BE ABLE TO CAPTURE
THE TRENDS BETTER.

AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY...MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SPILL ACROSS TAF SITES.
WINDS WILL TURN TO THE SOUTH MONDAY...AND AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME GUSTY AT 20-25 KTS.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
231 PM CST SUN MAR 4 2012

WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBACH
LONG TERM...HALBACH
AVIATION...ZT/AJ








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DODGE CITY KS

 400 AM CST MON MAR 5 2012

...UPDATED SYNOPSIS...SHORT TERM...LONG TERM...AND FIRE WEATHER SECTIONS...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST MON MAR 5 2012

A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER AIR PATTERN WAS OBSERVED ACROSS THE RAOB NETWORK
WITH A RIDGE OUT WEST AND A TROUGH OUT EAST. AN ANTICYCLONICALLY CURVED
135 KT 250 HPA JET EXTENDED ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. A VERY INTENSE 180 KT 250 HPA JET WAS PUSHING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE NEW YORK BIGHT AND INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE 500 HPA
GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT PATTERN ECHOED THE SAME PATTERN ABOVE EXCEPT WITH
A FEW MORE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EVIDENT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND
ALSO ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THE 500 HPA COLD POOL OF AT LEAST
-38 DEG C EXTENDED FROM ALBERTA AND INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. WARMING
OF 700 AND 850 HPA TEMPERATURES WERE SEEN ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS IN
RESPONSE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING, PARTICULARLY AT KDDC. AT THE SURFACE,
A LEE SFC TROUGH WAS STRENGTHENING ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO WITH HIGH
PRESSURE LOCATED ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS. AS A RESULT, SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
WERE OCCURRING ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AS OF 09Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST MON MAR 5 2012

TODAY:

FIRE WEATHER AND WINDS ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
EXTENSIVE ANALYSIS OF FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND MOS GUIDANCE STILL SUPPORT
A WIND ADVISORY ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME WELL
MIXED TO ABOUT 600 HPA WEST, 665 HPA WEST CENTRAL, 700 HPA CENTRAL.
WITHIN THIS LAYER, 30 TO 40 KT WINDS ARE EXPECTED. THE 0 TO 1 KM WIND
AVERAGE SHOWS THE STRONGEST AXIS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. FURTHER EAST,
THE EVENT LOOKS TO BE MORE MARGINAL. AS A RESULT, HAVE MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS
TO THE ONGOING WIND ADVISORY. MOS GUIDANCE ALSO SUPPORTS AREAS WEST
OF DODGE CITY SEEING ADVISORY LEVEL WIND SPEEDS. THE NAM HAD LOWER WIND
SPEEDS THAN COMPARED TO THE RUC AND GFS NEAR SURFACE. THE NAM MODEL
SOUNDING SHOWED THAT THERE IS NOT A SUPERADIABATIC LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE,
WHICH SEEMS UNLIKELY GIVEN THE STRONG INSOLATION/HEATING WE WILL SEE TODAY.
SPEAKING OF WHICH, TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH
MID 70S DEG F OUT WEST AND UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 DEG F ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE NEAR SUNSET. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND .30 SO THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE VERY DRY AND
MAINLY CLOUD FREE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

THE SECOND CONCERN IS FIRE WEATHER. HAVE RELIED MORE HEAVILY ON CONSRAW/CONSMOS
FOR DEWPOINT OUTPUT AS BOISE VERIFICATION SHOWS FAIRLY DECENT VERIFICATION
SCORES THAN COMPARED TO OTHER MODELS. DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 20S DEG F
AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S WILL PROMOTE RH`S IN THE LOW TEENS. MORE
SPECIFIC INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND IN THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW.

TONIGHT:

WINDS WILL SUBSIDE BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS TOWARDS 00Z. I HAVE WARMED
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS TONIGHTS LOWS LOOK
TO BE QUITE MILD...PARTICULARLY AT KP28. SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS COULD
SEE LOWS ONLY AROUND 50 DEG F. FURTHER NORTHWEST, 40S DEG F ARE EXPECTED.
THESE MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE IN RESPONSE TO A CONTINUED 5 TO 10 KT
S/SW WIND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THESE WINDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES
FROM FALLING THAT MUCH. BELIEVE THE 00Z NAM IS TOO COLD WITH THE LOWS
(UPPER 20S DEG F ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS VERSUS UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S DEG F FROM THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM).

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST MON MAR 5 2012

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT:
NOT MUCH WAS CHANGED TO THE FORECAST TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER
DID LOWER THE FORECAST HIGHS A DEGREE OR TWO IN THE CENTRAL AND EAST
GIVEN MIXING HEIGHTS A BIT LOWER THAN FARTHER WEST AND SOME CIRRUS
CLOUD COVER MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. A DEEP LEE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON RESULTING IN STRONG SOUTH WINDS ESPECIALLY
ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN ZONES...PROBABLY MEETING/EXCEEDING WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA ONCE AGAIN DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. BREEZY SOUTH
WINDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT KEEPING TEMPERATURES
RATHER WARM IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. BY 12Z WEDNESDAY...A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL BE KNOCKING ON THE DOOR OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS...AS DISCUSSED
IN MORE DETAIL BELOW.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY:
THERE ARE ALL SORTS OF FORECAST CHALLENGES DURING THIS TIME FRAME...INCLUDING
THE POSSIBILITY OF SUBSTANTIAL WINTER PRECIPITATION (INCLUDING ICE).
WEDNESDAY WILL START OF RATHER MILD WITH SOUTH WINDS KEEPING TEMPERATURES
UP IN THE 50S DURING THE MORNING HOURS OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
AWAITING UPSTREAM HOWEVER...IS THE COLD CANADIAN AIRMASS...AND IT WILL
NOT TAKE ITS TIME TO RUSH SOUTH INTO SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST WILL REFLECT TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 40S DURING THE AFTERNOON
...WITH MID TO UPPER 30S BY SUNSET OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. MEANWHILE
...A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW WILL BE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA WITH
A DEEP MOIST AIRMASS MAKING ITS WAY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH WEST
TEXAS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. SYNOPTICALLY...THIS IS SHAPING UP TO
BE A CLASSIC CONVERGENCE OF WARM/MOIST AIR WITH SHALLOW (MODIFIED) ARCTIC
AIR RIGHT OVER SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE HUGE QUESTION IS HOW FAST TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW 32 DEGREES
AT THE SURFACE. DESPITE IT BEING 72 HOURS OUT...THE NAM AND SREF MEANS
DO PAINT AN OMINOUS PICTURE WHICH MATCHES CLOSELY THE ECMWF IN THE SURFACE
FEATURES (OWING TO HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM/SREF
PROGS)...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING TO 30-32 SOMETIME DURING THE LATE
EVENING HOURS WEDNESDAY. IMMEDIATELY SOUTH IN THE 900-800MB LAYER OFF
THE SURFACE...DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES WILL BE 9-12 DEGC AND SCATTERED/NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT
AT THE SURFACE. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO
THE COLD SURFACE AIRMASS WHERE TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE WILL BE FALLING
DOWN TO (AND SLIGHTLY BELOW) FREEZING. A FAIRLY ROBUST WARM LAYER ALOFT
WILL BE LIKELY SUPPORTING FREEZING RAIN AS THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION
TYPE BY EARLY INDICATIONS OFF THE NAM/SREF MEANS AS WELL AS THE ECMWF.
IN THE GRIDS...HAVE TRIED TO REFLECT THE PRECIPITATION TYPE AS SNOW/SLEET
IN THE NORTHWEST SLEET/FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE BULK OF THE FORECAST
AREA AND FREEZING RAIN OR RAIN IN THE SOUTHEAST BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

THE INITIAL WAVE OF PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY WITH PERHAPS A LULL IN PRECIPITATION. THAT BEING SAID...LOW
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WILL LIKELY STILL BE ONGOING WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES
PRECARIOUSLY CLOSE TO 32F PRETTY MUCH ALL DAY. THE UPSHOT IS THAT SIGNIFICANT
ICING IS NOW CERTAINLY A HUGE CONCERN WITH THIS STORM GIVEN THE LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE ON THE WHOLE.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND:
BY LATE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...THE ECMWF MODEL SHOWS THE CENTER OF
THE UPPER LOW STILL OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO AND ANOTHER LOBE OF POTENTIAL
VORTICITY ROTATING AROUND THE LOW THURSDAY NIGHT...SETTING THE STAGE
FOR WHAT COULD BE ROUND 2 FRIDAY. THE NEAR-SURFACE ATMOSPHERE WILL MODIFY
SOME...BUT PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH TO KEEP WINTER PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE
FORECAST. SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS WILL BE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
SATURDAY...WHEN THE ECMWF FINALLY SHOWS THE UPPER LOW EJECTING NORTHEASTWARD.
THE ALLBLEND GUIDANCE WAS USED AND ONLY VERY SLIGHTLY MODIFIED FOR
THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CST SUN MAR 4 2012

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE 06Z TAFS IS WINDS. TOMORROW LOOKS LIKE A VERY
WINDY DAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A STRENGTHENING LEE SURFACE TROF ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO THE SE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
WITH SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING THROUGH MORNING. BY
NOON WINDS WILL VEER TO THE S/SSW AS THE LEE TROUGH MOVES EAST. WINDS
OF 25 TO 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 TO 40 KT ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW. WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE BY SUNSET. VFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST MON MAR 5 2012

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS (I.E. RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA) IS
EXPECTED TODAY AND TOMORROW. HAVE ADJUSTED THE RFW FURTHER WEST AS EASTERN
COUNTIES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO MEET THE 15 PERCENT RELATIVE HUMIDITY CRITERIA
PER NAM/RUC OUTPUT. HAVE LEFT THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH ALONE FOR TUESDAY,
ALTHOUGH WITH EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES AND CONTINUED LEE SURFACE TROUGHING
(AND RELATED SOUTHERLY WINDS), IT LOOKS LIKE TOMORROW WILL NEED ANOTHER
RED FLAG WARNING AS WELL. THOUGHT IT WAS BEST TO NOT HAVE TWO RFW`S
OUT SIMULTANEOUSLY TO AVOID CONFUSION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  71  44  76  47 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  73  40  80  44 /   0   0   0  10
EHA  75  44  79  44 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  74  42  80  46 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  70  43  75  47 /   0   0   0  10
P28  70  49  72  52 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON CST /11 AM MST/ TODAY TO 6 PM CST /5
PM MST/ THIS EVENING FOR KSZ043-044-061>063-074>077-084>087.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM CST /9 AM MST/ THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST
/5 PM MST/ THIS EVENING FOR KSZ030-043>045-061>064-074>078-
084>088.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR KSZ043-061>063-074>076-
084>086.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SUGDEN
SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM....UMSCHEID
AVIATION...SUGDEN
FIRE WEATHER...SUGDEN







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAY ME

 248 AM EST MON MAR 5 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFFSHORE TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND LATE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A WARM FRONT MOVING IN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. MUCH WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING... BRINGING COOLER CONDITIONS BACK TO THE
REGION AS WELL AS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED WELL OFFSHORE WITH SURFACE TROUGH AND UPPER
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS HELPING TO KEEP SNOW SHOWERS GOING ACROSS THE
AREA. THE MAIN AREA OF SNOW WAS NOW LOCATED OVER SKOWHEGAN AND
AUGUSTA AND MOVING STEADILY EAST. LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS THESE
ECHOES WILL DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. HIGHER DBZ
ECHOES HAVE ALSO DISAPPEARED. ANOTHER AREA OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
OVER THE NH MOUNTAINS IS BEING ENHANCED BY AN AREA OF 800MB
FRONTOGENESIS AND WILL WEAKEN LATER THIS MORNING AS THE FRONTAL
FORCING MOVES AWAY. OVERALL ONLY EXPECTING ANOTHER 0.5-1.0" OF
SNOW. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE SUPPRESSED TOWARDS THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY IN THE UPPER
TEENS AND LOWER 20S NORTH TO UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND TUESDAY/...
EXPECTING A CHILLY NIGHT TONIGHT AS DENSE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN
FROM THE WEST AND ALLOWS WINDS TO DIE DOWN AND SKIES TO CLEAR.
THIS WILL RESULT IN GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WITH PW
VALUES AROUND 0.10". WENT CLOSE TO NAM12 VALUES FOR LOW
TEMPERATURES WHICH GIVES ZERO TO JUST BELOW ZERO READINGS ACROSS
THE NORTH AND SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THE COAST WILL BE
A BIT WARMER WITH LOWS AROUND 10 DEGREES F.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DIRECTLY CENTERED OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY
RESULTING IN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY WARMER BUT WE WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDINESS AS SHORT
WAVE ENERGY WORKS ITS WAY THROUGH RIDGING ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WARM FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
TUESDAY NIGHT... WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES BEHIND IT. THE WARMER WEATHER WILL OVERSPREAD THE
WHOLE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 40S AND 50S. BY
THURSDAY... HIGHS WILL REACH THE 50S AND EVEN LOW 60S IN SOUTHERN
AREAS WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS.

A COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO NEW ENGLAND FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY
NIGHT AND TO THE COAST BY FRIDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH THE BEST
FORCING WITH THIS FRONT IS WELL TO THE NORTH... GOOD CONVERGENCE
AND DECENT MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME
RAIN SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT... AND MAYBE A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS BEHIND IT. BY FRIDAY... COLDER AIR WILL BE MOVING IN ON
NORTHWEST WINDS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN INTO THE 30S OR
LOW 40S. THE COOLER WEATHER LASTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...TAFS ARE VARIABLE THE NEXT FEW HOURS DUE TO SNOW
SHOWERS...HOWEVER THE SHOWERS SHOULD END BY DAYBREAK.
MVFR/MARGINAL VFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH
STRATUS IN THE AREA. WINDS MAY GUST INTO THE LOWER 20S ALONG THE
COAST.

LONG TERM...QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH MAINLY VFR THROUGH MOST
OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER... SOME SHOWERS ALONG A FRONT ON THURSDAY
NIGHT MAY BRING MVFR CONDITIONS. VFR RETURN FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES. ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS
ARE CURRENTLY BELOW CRITERIA WAVES AND WIND GUSTS SHOULD INCREASE
AS COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

LONG TERM...GENERALLY QUIET... HOWEVER SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THURSDAY
MAY INCREASE INTO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS WITH GUSTS TO 25 OR
30 KT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

HANES/KIMBLE





AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS GRAY ME

 1241 AM EST MON MAR 5 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE
REGION ON TUESDAY AND WILL HOLD OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY AND WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION
THURSDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT
THURSDAY NIGHT...SHIFTING OFFSHORE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT
WILL DROP SOUTH FROM CANADA ON SATURDAY MOVING OFFSHORE BY LATE IN
THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...
MAIN AREA OF SNOW STILL DRIFTING ACROSS CENTRAL MAINE. TOTALS HAVE
AVERAGED A QUICK 0.5-1.00" BUT THANKFULLY THE PRECIP IS MOVING
STEADILY EAST. LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS THESE ECHOES WILL DIMINISH
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. HIGHER DBZ ECHOES HAVE BEGUN TO
DISAPPEAR. ANOTHER AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS COMING OUT THE THE NH
MOUNTAINS IS BEING ENHANCED BY THE COLD FRONT AND WILL WEAKEN
LATER THIS MORNING AS THE FRONTAL FORCING MOVES AWAY. FOR THE
UPDATE ADJUST SNOW TOTALS SLIGHTLY AS WELL AS TEMPERATURES...DEW
POINTS...AND POPS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...BAND OF SNFL IS BECOMING MORE N-S ORIENTED
ATTM...AS SFC TROF CONTINUES TO SAG TOWARDS THE COAST. WILL
PROBABLY SEE SNFL RATES APPROACH 1"/HR IN THE HEAVIEST PART OF THE
BAND. IT IS ALSO BECOMING A LITTLE MORE PROGRESSIVE...SO 1-2"
TOTALS LOOK GOOD. MIGHT SEE SOME LOCALIZED HIGHER AMNTS. IF BAND
BEGINS TO SLOW DOWN AGAIN OR PERSIST LIKE THE HRRR SUGGESTS IT
MIGHT...QPF AND SNFL TOTALS WOULD NEED TO BE NUDGED UP SOME MORE
FOR THE MIDCOAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...INTERESTING SLOW MOVING BAND OF SHSN
MOVING ACROSS NRN NEW ENG IN ASSOC WITH COLD FRONT SETTLING
SOUTHWARD. VSBL SATELLITE IMAGES CONTINUES TO SHOW THE CONVECTIVE
LOOKING CLOUDS SHIFTING SLOWLY TO THE EAST. THIS EASTWARD
PROGRESSION HAS BEEN SLOWED THIS AFTERNOON BY THE PRESENCE OF
SUBSIDENCE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE OFFSHORE COASTAL SYSTEM.

SR MODELS BRING THIS BOUNDARY TO SRN MAINE BY EVENING. THE LATEST
HRRR RUNS HAVE FINALLY BEGUN TO PICK UP THE BRIEF PERIOD OF BANDED
PCPN NOW FORECAST FOR THE LAST SVRL RUNS BY THE NAM (AND TO SOME
EXTENT THE GFS) TO SETTLE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL PTNS OF OUR FORECAST
AREA THIS EVENING.

WITH A SFC LOW INTENSIFYING OFF THE CST...AND A STALLED OUT
BOUNDARY INTERACTING WITH POSITIVE VERTICAL MOTION IN THE LWR
LVLS...THIS PTTN IS BEGINNING TO RESEMBLE SOME CHARACTERISTICS OF
A NORLUN TYPE II TROUGH ("LDRI" FROM PREV NE STORM CONFERENCES).
WILL ENHANCE THE POPS FOR THIS EVENING OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL AND
COASTAL AREAS N OF PWM WHERE BEST LAPSE RATES AND MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE WILL EXIST. POPS WILL TAPER OFF AS YOU HEAD INTO WRN
AND SRN NH.

QPF...WILL INCLUDE A SNOW MAP FOR THIS AFTNS AND TNGTS TOTALS.
WILL BE UPDATING THIS GRAPHIC PERIODICALLY THRU THE EVE HRS.

OTRW...PLENTY OF CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER
TROF. MOST OF THE PCPN TO EXIT OFF THE COAST OR DIMINISH TOWARDS
MRNG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
BY MONDAY...ANY LEFTOVER FLURRIES WILL BE CONFINED TO THE UPSLOPE
AREAS OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE NRN/WRN MTNS. USED A BLEND OF
MET/MAV MOS FOR AFTN HIGH TEMPS. TEMPS TOMORROW WILL BE RUNNING
COOLER THAN WHAT WE HAVE BEEN USED TO AS THE CORE OF THE RIDGE
KEEPS H8 TEMPS BTWN -14 AND -18 DEG C.

CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS ONCE AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT WELL OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COASTLINE. TOO FAR OFFSHORE TO INFLUENCE OUR WX IN ME AND NH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY BRINGING MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES TO MUCH OF THE AREA. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME HIGH
CLOUDINESS SPILLING INTO WESTERN ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE WITH MID 20S TO LOWER 30S
IN THE NORTH AND LOWER TO MID 30S IN THE SOUTH.

RETURN FLOW WILL BRING WARMER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT.
EXPECT VARIABLE CLOUDINESS AS AREA OF WEAK OVER-RUNNING SHIFTS INTO
THE AREA FROM THE WEST. COULD SEE A STRAY SNOW SHOWER IN THE NORTH
BUT NOT GOING WITH ANY POPS AT THIS POINT. LOOKING FOR MILDER
OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MID TEENS IN THE NORTH
AND MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S IN THE SOUTH.

MOSTLY SUNNY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE EAST COAST. ONLY LOOKING FOR A FEW PATCHY
HIGH CLOUDS WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S IN THE NORTH
AND MID 40S TO LOWER 50S IN THE SOUTH.

WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH FROM CANADA ON THURSDAY. SEEING SOME
RUN TO RUN TIMING DIFFERENCES ON HOW QUICKLY THIS BOUNDARY DROPS
SOUTH BUT IT SHOULD BE ANOTHER DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY DAY IN AT LEAST
SOUTHERN ZONES. EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE NORTH WITH A CHANCE OF A LATE DAY SPRINKLE. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL AGAIN BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH MID 40S TO LOWER 50S IN THE
NORTH AND RANGING THROUGH THE 50S TO NEAR 60 IN THE SOUTH.

COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY EVENING
..SHIFTING OFFSHORE BEFORE MIDNIGHT. WILL STICK WITH CHANCE POPS FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA WITH RAIN SHOWERS MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO SNOW
SHOWERS BEFORE ENDING. SHOULD SEE CLEARING SKIES AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY BEFORE MOVING
OFFSHORE. WARM FRONT CROSSING SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BRING HIGH CLOUDS
INTO THE REGION DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON BUT
LOOKING FOR A DRY DAY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH FROM CANADA ON SATURDAY AND WILL
QUICKLY MOVE OFFSHORE IN THE AFTERNOON. LITTLE IF ANY MOISTURE OR
FORCING WITH THIS BOUNDARY SO AT THIS POINT SEE LITTLE MORE THAN A
FEW PASSING CLOUDS WITH THIS SYSTEM.

ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD SOUTH FROM CANADA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY KEEPING WEATHER MILD AND QUIET IN THE
NORTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MVFR AND LCLY IFR CONDS DVLPG THIS EVE...MAINLY OVER
S-CNTRL ME AND ALG THE MIDCOAST RGN. CONDS SLOWLY IMPROVG LATE
TNGT AND THROUGH MONDAY.

LONG TERM...VFR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SOME AREAS OF MVFR
CEILINGS THURSDAY EVENING. VFR FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED FOR THE OUTER WATERS. THERE
WILL BE A LULL IN THE WIND FIELD TNGT...HWVR...SEAS WILL RMN AOA 5
FT. NW GRADIENT TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN ON MONDAY WITH FRQNT GUSTS
TO 25 KT CONTINUING RGT THRU MON NGT. HENCE SCAS HAVE BEEN
EXTENDED OUTWARDS IN TIME.

LONG TERM...SCA`S MAYBE NEEDED WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HANES







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC

 400 AM EST MON MAR 5 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
VIRGINIA THIS MORNING...MOVING OFFSHORE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE MID ATLANTIC WEATHER
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND SINKS SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. MORE HIGH PRESSURE
IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
POTENT SHORTWAVE/CLIPPER SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY WILL
MOVE TO THE EAST TODAY...PASSING OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS
MORNING AND THROUGH SOUTHERN VIRGINIA DURING THE MIDDAY AND EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS.

00Z GUIDANCE SHIFTED THE TRACK OF THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED QPF A
LITTLE FURTHER TO THE NORTH. NCEP GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THIS
STORM EXHIBITING A TIGHT GRADIENT OF SNOW. HAVE ALREADY EXPANDED THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO INCLUDE SEVERAL MORE COUNTIES FROM
AUGUSTA EAST THROUGH ALBEMARLE/ORANGE/SPOTSYLVANIA. LATEST NCEP
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS AREA WOULD BE ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF A
MODERATE TO HEAVY BAND OF SNOWFALL. IN ADDITION TO THE PVA
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM...MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS AREA IS WHERE
THERE MAY ALSO BE ENHANCED FRONTOGENETIC FORCING. ALWAYS HAVE TO
WORRY ABOUT BANDING RESULTING IN MORE SNOWFALL. THIS WORRY IS
COMPOUNDED BY THE 06Z NAM JUST COMING IN...SUGGESTING WARNING
CALIBER AMOUNTS ACROSS NELSON AND SOUTHERN ALBEMARLE COUNTIES.
DON/T HAVE SUPPORT FROM OTHER GUIDANCE FOR A WARNING...SO WILL HOLD
WITH THE ADVISORY FOR NOW WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS TOWARD NELSON
COUNTY. IN ADDITION...RECENT HRRR RUNS SUGGEST THAT ADVISORY
SNOWFALL COULD REACH A TIER OF COUNTIES FURTHER NORTH ALTHOUGH THIS
IS NOT PORTRAYED BY THE NAM/GFS WHICH SHOW THE TIGHT QPF GRADIENT
WELL. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS POTENTIAL AS THE MORNING
PROGRESSES. HAVE THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF LOW POPS UP TO NEAR
INTERSTATE 66...WITH A DRY FORECAST UP TOWARD THE BALTIMORE AREA.

HAVE UNDERCUT MOS FOR TODAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION
OF THE CWA GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP.

CLIPPER WILL BE A FAST-MOVER...LIKELY OFF THE SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA
COAST BY MID AFTERNOON AND TAKING THE PRECIP WITH IT. SKIES WILL
REMAIN CLOUDY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING SKIES WILL RAPIDLY CLEAR AND COLDER AIR
WILL MOVE INTO THE CWA.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST ACROSS THE LWX CWA ON TUESDAY WITH
MAX TEMPS AROUND 50F ACROSS THE CWA...JUST BELOW NORMAL. THIS IS
EXCEPT FOR THE SHEN VLY AND WEST WHERE SWLY RETURN FLOW IN THE
AFTERNOON MIXES DOWN THE WARM AIR ADVECTING IN...EXPECT MID 50S OUT
THERE. FEW/SCT MID LEVEL CLOUDS ALONG A LOWER-MID LEVEL WARM
FRONT...BUT DRY.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CENTER ANCHORS TO THE SE OF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...PUMPING WARM GULF AIR ACROSS THE REGION.
EXPECT A WARMING TREND AND AMPLE SUNSHINE. 8C 850MB TEMPS ON
WED...WITH 10 TO 20 KT SWLY MIXING FLOW EXPECT AT LEAST MID 60S MAX
TEMPS WEDNESDAY. BETTER MIXING ON THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF A COLD
FRONT. MAX TEMPS MID TO UPR 60S...70F SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL MID ATLANTIC THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. INCREASED POPS TO HIGHER CHANCE RANGE...WITH
MOST OF THE AREA IN 40 POP THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH SRN MD 40 POP FOR
FRIDAY AS FRONT SAGS SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NRN MID ATLANTIC BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FOR
THE WEEKEND...EXPECT AN ONSHORE FLOW AND TEMPERATURES BACK TO AROUND
NORMAL. WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR THE FRONT TO STALL AND A CAD
SCENARIO TO SETUP FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SN WILL DEVELOP AT CHO BTWN 11-12Z...BEGINNING A PERIOD OF IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY LASTING UNTIL AROUND NOON. HAVE KEPT PRECIP SOUTH
OF ALL OTHER TERMINALS...BUT THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE THAT LIGHT
SN MAKES IT TO IAD-DCA ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF PRECIP ASSOCIATED
WITH A CLIPPER THAT PASSES SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY. AS CLIPPER
MOVES OFF THE COAST...WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
DIMINISHING TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

HIGH PRESSURE/VFR TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY. NLY FLOW TUESDAY MORNING
BECOMES LIGHT AND VARIABLE UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER...THEN
BECOMES SWLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE CENTER MOVES OFFSHORE.
SLY/SWLY FLOW THEN THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORS EAST OF
CAPE HATTERAS AND AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
WITH RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
CLIPPER PASSES SOUTH OF THE WATERS TODAY. GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP THIS
AFTERNOON FOR SCA CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP. SCA WINDS MAY LAST WELL
INTO THE EVENING BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT.

NLY/NWLY FLOW CONTINUES TO GUST AROUND 18KT THROUGH MID TUESDAY
MORNING FOR SRN MD PORTION OF CHES BAY...SO SCA WAS EXTENDED UNTIL
15Z FOR SOUTH OF DRUM PT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW THEN BECOMES
SLY/SWLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE ANCHORS EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS. SCA POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH THROUGH THE CHESAPEAKE BAY
REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY BRINGING SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VAZ025-036-
     037-050-056.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ531-532-538>542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ533-534-537-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EST
     TONIGHT FOR ANZ530-535-536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BPP
NEAR TERM...BPP
SHORT TERM...BAJ
LONG TERM...BAJ
AVIATION...BAJ/BPP
MARINE...BAJ/BPP








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HASTINGS NE

 1130 PM CST SUN MAR 4 2012

.AVIATION...06Z TAF. MAIN CONCERN FOR THE FORECAST WILL BE WINDS.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...BUT WINDS WILL TURN TO THE SOUTH BY
MORNING AND INCREASE DURING THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY
SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE AFTERNOON THEN SHOULD DIMINISH
SOME AFTER THE SUN GOES DOWN. SKIES SHOULD BE MAINLY CLEAR BUT
THERE COULD BE A FEW CUMULUS DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT THEY WILL
BE VFR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 624 PM CST SUN MAR 4 2012/

UPDATE...WINDS HAVE STARTED TO DIMINISH AND THE WIND ADVISORY HAS
BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CST SUN MAR 4 2012/

SHORT TERM...THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY. MORNING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES
LONG WAVE RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND TROUGHING OVER THE
EAST. MID AND UPPER LEVEL JET ENERGY IS POSITIONED OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AS A RESULT. FLOW REMAINS VERY STRONG THROUGH LOWER
PORTIONS OF THE TROPOSPHERE AS WELL...WITH A ~50KT 700MB JET
STREAK AND A ~40KT 850MB JET STREAK CURRENTLY OVER PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES INCREASING MID LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS ALONG THE MID LEVEL JET
AXIS. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS SITUATED OVER
THE MISSOURI VALLEY...WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINING FROM THE
NORTHWEST ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA AS A RESULT.

PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS FROM LAPS AND RUC ANALYSIS SUGGEST BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING TO BETWEEN 750MB AND 700MB PERSISTS AT THIS HOUR ACROSS
MUCH OF OUR CWA...A TREND WHICH WILL CONTINUE UNTIL DIABATIC HEATING
IS LOST LATER THIS EVENING. ALSO...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...RUC ANALYSIS
INDICATES A 700MB JET STREAK OF ~50KTS AND AN 850MB JET STREAK OF
~40KTS ALSO PERSISTS OVER THE AREA. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20KTS TO NEAR
35KTS...WITH GUSTS AROUND 40KTS...CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA
AS A RESULT. ALTHOUGH WIND ADVISORY WINDS ARE NOT AS PREVALENT
FARTHER SOUTH/SOUTHWEST ACROSS OUR CWA...KMCK CONTINUES TO REPORT
STRONG WINDS...SOME OF WHICH COULD SLIP INTO KHDE AND KPHG TOWARDS
LATE AFTERNOON. GIVEN ALL THIS...WILL CONTINUE THE CURRENT WIND
ADVISORY THROUGH 00Z. THESE WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE VERY QUICKLY AROUND
SUNSET AS DIABATIC HEATING IS LOST AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS
DECOUPLED FROM THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT.

ALTHOUGH THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL JET AXIS IS OVER US KNOW...IT HAS
BEGUN TO DRIFT EAST...AWAY FROM OUR AREA. MID AND UPPER LEVEL JET
ENERGY SHOULD MOVE COMPLETELY OUT OF OUR AREA TONIGHT...THUS
PRESENTING LITTLE TO NO KINEMATIC FORCING ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD. DRY CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AS A RESULT.

FORECAST PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM AND OPERATIONAL GFS
SUGGEST BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING TO AROUND 800MB...IF NOT SLIGHTLY
DEEPER...WILL BE REALIZED ACROSS THE CWA MONDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE
MID LEVEL JET AXIS SHIFTS EAST INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SO WILL
THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME...THUS ELIMINATING THE INCREASED RH
VALUES WE HAVE SEEN AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER BOTH TODAY AND
YESTERDAY. THIS WILL IN TURN PRESENT AN OPPORTUNITY FOR AFTERNOON
SURFACE DEW POINTS TO DROP OFF AS BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING COMMENCES
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THANKFULLY...A STIFF SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WIND
FIELD...PERHAPS TURNING A TOUCH SOUTHWESTERLY BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON BUT NOT BY MUCH...SHOULD HELP PROMOTE DESCENT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INFLUX TO OUR AREA. THIS SHOULD HELP OFFSET AFTERNOON DROPS
IN DEW POINTS. ALL THAT BEING SAID...THE CURRENT FORECAST SHOWS MONDAY
AFTERNOON SURFACE RH VALUES DROPPING TO AROUND 21% FOR A COUPLE
HOURS ACROSS OUR EXTREME SOUTHWEST. THIS LOOKS LIKE A MARGINAL RFW
EVENT FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA MONDAY. WILL
HOLD OFF ON ANY FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES FOR MONDAY AND LET THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT SHIFTS EVALUATE FURTHER. WILL HOWEVER GO
AHEAD AND MENTION AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT IN THE HWO TO
GET THE WORD OUT.

THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING ON MONDAY...WORKING IN
CONCERT WITH A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT DUE TO AN
INTENSIFYING LEE SIDE TROUGH ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE...WILL PRESENT
YET ANOTHER BREEZY DAY ACROSS THE CWA. MAV GUIDANCE SUGGESTS OUR
EXTREME SOUTH WILL BRIEFLY HIT WIND ADVISORY THRESHOLDS BY MID
AFTERNOON...WHILE THE MET GUIDANCE KEEPS OUR ENTIRE CWA UNDER WIND
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. WILL KEEP ANY MENTION OF WIND ADVISORY WINDS
OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW...BUT MENTION INCREASED WINDS ACROSS OUR
SOUTH IN THE HWO TO GET THE WORD OUT. FUTURE SHIFTS WILL CERTAINLY WANT
TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON MONDAY WINDS TO MAKE SURE THEY WILL INDEED
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.  DRY...QUIET WEATHER WILL
BE IN PLACE MONDAY NIGHT IN A FAIRLY ZONAL PATTERN ALOFT...FOLLOWING
PASSAGE OF SURFACE TROUGH.  WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS WELL NORTH
INTO THE DAKOTAS ON TUESDAY AND MODELS ARE CONSISTENT THAT
UNSEASONABLY MILD H85 TEMPS OF 14C TO 15C WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE
INTERIOR CONUS.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MIXING WILL REACH H85
AND SUBSEQUENT HIGH TEMPS SHLD EASILY REACH THE 70S.  TUESDAY WILL
NOT BE WITHOUT WIND HOWEVER...WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING WINDS
AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER RANGING FROM AROUND 17KTS IN OUR WEST
TO OVER 30KTS IN THE EAST.  SURFACE GRADIENT IS TIGHTEST IN THE EAST
AND CONDITIONS ARE LOOKING BORDERLINE FOR REACHING WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA ATTM.  CURRENTLY HAVE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR OUR WESTERN
CWA FOR TUESDAY...AND WITH FRONT SLOWING DOWN...WINDS LOOK STRONGER
IN OUR WEST COMPARED TO 24HRS AGO.  PROGGED RH VALUES DROP BELOW 20
PERCENT ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF OUR CWA...AND WILL LEAVE
CURRENT WATCH HEADLINE AS IS.  IF FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOW...HIGHER
DPS MAY MATERIALIZE AS WELL AS HIGHER RH/S.  WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.

UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE SOUTHERN
STREAM CLOSING/CUTTING OFF ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE NORTHERN STREAM
TRANSLATES ACROSS THE DAKOTAS/UPPER MIDWEST.  THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WITH NORTHERN SYSTEM GRADUALLY PUSHES SOUTH INTO OUR CWA
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.  THE GFS IS FASTER WITH FRONT THAN
THE NAM AND HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE SLOWER SOLUTION.  FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING INCREASES ALONG BOUNDARY...MAINLY IN THE AFTN...AND WITH
SLOWER TIMING/INCREASING FORCING HAVE EXPANDED POPS TO OUR ENTIRE
CWA.  INSTABILITY PROGS SHOW SOME MUCAPE WITH NAM INDICATING VALUES
GENERALLY 25J/KG WITH GFS AS HIGH AS 200 J/K IN OUR FAR SOUTHEAST.
WILL GO WITH CONVECTIVE RAIN SHOWER WORDING FOR NOW AND MONITOR
INSTABILITY TRENDS BEFORE INSERTING THUNDER JUST YET.  COLD AIR
ADVECTS SOUTH BEHIND FRONT WITH NW WINDS INCREASING FOR A TIME ON
WED.  PCPN CHCS CONTINUES WED NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY BUT SHIFT
SOUTH WITH TIME ALONG SOUTHWARD ADVANCING BAROCLINIC ZONE.  AS TEMPS
DIURNALLY COOL...A MIX OF R/S IS POSSIBLE.

FROM THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND MODELS DIVERGE
IN HANDLING OF THE SOUTHWEST CONUS CUTOFF UPPER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.  CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW DURING THIS TIME FRAME GIVEN THE
VARYING SOLUTIONS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...FIRE WEATHER WATCH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR NEZ060-072-073-082-083.

KS...FIRE WEATHER WATCH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR KSZ005-017.

&&

$$








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RALEIGH NC

 121 AM EST MON MAR 5 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER LOW WILL TRACK EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTH
CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA BORDER LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...
BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. DRY HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE CAROLINAS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 930 PM SUNDAY...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ADJACENT
VIRGINIA BORDERING COUNTIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN
COASTAL PLAIN FROM 4AM TO NOON MONDAY.

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST TONIGHT AS MODELS CONTINUE TO
BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS.  THE UPPER LEVEL
JET MAXIMA AND ASSOCIATED SHEAR VORTICITY ARE CURRENTLY DIGGING
SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...AND PRECIPITATION HAS BEGUN TO
EXPAND FROM AROUND PEORIA SOUTH TO NASHVILLE. THE SURFACE LOW
WAS ANALYZED NEAR THE MISSOURI/ILLINOIS/KENTUCKY BORDER
AREA...AGAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH WHERE 12Z AND 18Z MODELS
PROJECTED. THE NEW 00Z/05 NAM SHOWS THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW
NORTH OF ITS 18Z/04 RUNS...WITH THE LOW TRACKING CLOSER TO THE
NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER...AND THE FORECAST QPF ACCORDINGLY
IS LESS ALONG THE VIRGINIA BORDER COUNTIES. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY
THE 00Z/05 RUC ALSO. HOWEVER...MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT
UP TO THIS POINT... SO WE WILL NOT ADJUST THE ADVISORY AND WILL
ONLY MAKE SMALL REDUCTIONS IN QPF AND SNOW TOTALS. SOUTH OF WHERE
THE LOW LEVEL FGEN BAND SETS UP... STEEP 850-700MB LAPSE RATES
WILL SUPPORT QUICK INSTABILITY RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS...BUT SHORTER
DURATION AND SUBLIMATION SHOULD PREVENT MUCH ACCUMULATION ALONG
THE INTERSTATE 40 TO HIGHWAY 64 CORRIDORS JUST SOUTH OF THE
ADVISORY.

TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS THE
AREA...BUT SURFACE WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO STIR OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
AND MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER SYSTEM IS
RAPIDLY APPROACHING.  TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO FALL A FEW MORE
DEGREES...BUT LOW 30S MAY NOT BE ATTAINABLE IN SOME WESTERN AREAS.

THE LOW WILL QUICKLY MOVE OFF THE OUTER BANKS BY MIDDAY...WITH
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND COLD DRY AIR ADVECTION CLEARING SKIES FROM
WEST TO EAST...WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 KNOTS IN
THE WAKE OF THE EXITING CLIPPER LOW. CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S NORTH TO
MID 50S SOUTH WILL GO A LONG WAY IN MELTING ANY SNOW ACROSS THE
ADVISORY AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...

TO START THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...A STRONG CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE
DEPARTING THE REGION...WITH FAIRLY STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
(AROUND 1035 MILLIBARS) BUILDING IN BEHIND IT AND THEN PERSISTING
OVER THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. AM EXPECTING
EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE
HIGH IS FORECAST TO BE CENTERED DIRECTLY OVER THE FORECAST AREA
BY 12Z TUESDAY MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY
BE IN THE MID 20S AREA WIDE MONDAY NIGHT. THIS CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY NOT
ALLOWING FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF TEMPERATURE MODERATION. THEREFORE...
AM EXPECTING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY... WITH
TEMPERATURES ONLY RISING INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL ONLY MODERATE SLIGHTLY ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH GRADUALLY
BEGINS TO SHIFT OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...SKIES WILL STILL BE MOSTLY
CLEAR AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...LEADING TO ANOTHER NIGHT OF GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. THEREFORE...AM EXPECTING LOWS IN
THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK....WHILE AS THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
SHIFT OFFSHORE ON WEDNESDAY...BUT CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE AREA
THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN
RETURN FLOW SETTING UP AT THE LOW LEVELS AND THEREFORE A GRADUAL
MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO MODERATE FROM THE MID 60S ON
WEDNESDAY TO THE LOWER 70S BY FRIDAY...WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
GO FROM THE MID 40S ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO LOW 50S BY THURSDAY
NIGHT.

MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE WITH RESPECT TO THE EVOLVING SPLIT FLOW
PATTERN FORECAST TO FORM OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND
THEREFORE WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL APPROACH THE AREA BY THE
END OF THE WEEK OR EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. DUE TO THE HIGH LEVEL OF
UNCERTAINTY... WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW HPC CLOSELY WHICH PREFERS A
GFS/ECMWF BLEND. THIS WOULD RESULT IN INCREASING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES BEGINNING FRIDAY (BUT FOR NOW WILL NOT GO ANY HIGHER THAN
SLIGHT CHANCE DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY)...AND A RETURN TO NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 120 AM...

A STRONG SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHERN KENTUCKY WILL MOVE DUE EAST
INTO WESTERN VIRGINIA BEFORE DIPPING EAST SOUTHEAST TOWARD NORFOLK
DURING THE AFTERNOON. SNOW DEVELOPING AROUND DAWN WILL HAVE A
DIFFICULT TIME REACHING THE GROUND AS MORE THAN FLURRIES AT THE
NORTHERN TAF SITES WITH FAYETTEVILLE DRY. SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES
POSSIBLE UNTIL 10 OR 11 AM. VFR CEILINGS WITH THE LOW... ONLY
GOING MVFR IN THE HEAVIEST BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS. PRECIPITATION
EXITING THE NORTHEAST BY MID AFTERNOON.

STRONG WINDS WILL BEGIN TO REACH THE SURFACE BY MID MORNING IN THE
WEST AND JUST BEFORE NOON TO THE EAST. SUSTAINED NORTHWEST WINDS
OF 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AT LEAST 35 MPH. WINDS SUBSIDING
FROM WEST TO EAST LATE AFTERNOON TO SUNSET WITH ALL SITES DROPPING
BELOW 10 MPH SHORTLY AFTER DARK.

VFR CONDITIONS INTO EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT... THEN SOME MVFR CEILINGS
POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. A
PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS WITH FOG LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING... AND AGAIN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...
BUT OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO NOON
EST TODAY FOR NCZ007>011.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SMITH/CBL
SHORT TERM...KRR
LONG TERM...KRR






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND FORKS ND

 340 AM CST MON MAR 5 2012

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPERATURES...WHICH WILL
DEPEND ON A NUMBER OF DIFFERENT FACTORS INCLUDING CLOUDS...SNOW
COVER/TEMPERATURE...WIND DIRECTION/SPEED AND VEGETATION. GFS/NAM/
ECMWF/GEM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL USE A MODEL BLEND FOR
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

EARLY THIS MORNING...DENSE FOG ALONG SURFACE RIDGE AXIS FROM
ELBOW LAKE TO DETROIT LAKES WILL DISSIPATE AND LIFT AS SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW INCREASES. GIVEN PATCHY NATURE OF FOG...WILL COVER
HAZARD WITH NOW-CASTS THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING.

BIG STORY TODAY WILL BE STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION FROM THE SURFACE
TO 850 HPA. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THERMAL ADVECTION
WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY. REGIONAL WSR-88D RADARS
SHOW SOME MODEST ECHOES WITH THESE CLOUDS...BUT NOTHING IS
REACHING THE GROUND. HOWEVER...LATEST HRRR AND 00 UTC ECMWF PAINT
SOME LIGHT QPF ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING AND
WILL EXPAND 20 POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW ACROSS NORTHWEST MN AND
PORTIONS OF EASTERN ND. ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE A TENTH OR TWO AT
BEST.

BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 30 KTS BY AFTERNOON...SO
EXPECT BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH...
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE VALLEY FLOOR. WIND DIRECTION IS NOT IDEAL FOR
STRONG SURFACE WARMING AND SNOWPACK TEMPERATURES ARE STILL IN THE
20S...SO A LOT OF THERMAL ENERGY SHOULD GO INTO RIPENING THE
SNOWPACK TODAY. AS A RESULT...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY PEAK
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK MOST PLACES. THAT BEING
SAID...THERE COULD BE SOME DRIFTING AND MELTING OF SNOW ON AREA
ROADWAYS...SO SOME SLICK SPOTS ARE LIKELY.

FOR TONIGHT...LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST...SO TEMPERATURES
WILL HINGE ON CLOUD COVER. EXPECT WIDE VARIABILITY...BUT OVERALL
LOWS SHOULD DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S.

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS JUST TO OUR NORTH ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA ON TUESDAY...KEEPING PRECIPITATION NORTH OF THE
BORDER AND THE FORECAST AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR. 850 HPA TEMPERATURES
SOAR TO +6 TO +8 C AS THE THERMAL RIDGE PASSES OVERHEAD. SNOWPACK
TEMPERATURE WILL BE CLOSER TO FREEZING COMPARED TO MONDAY...SO
HIGHS SHOULD BE ABLE TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW 40S IN SOME AREAS. DID
NOT DEVIATE FAR FROM GUIDANCE ALONG THE VALLEY FLOOR...BUT DID
INCREASE TEMPERATURES A HANDFUL OF DEGREES WEST OF THE VALLEY DUE
TO AN AFTERNOON WESTERLY WIND SHIFT AND ACROSS THE FORESTED AREAS
OF NORTHWEST AND WEST-CENTRAL MN.

A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE
IS LIMITED...BUT DID MAINTAIN AND ADJUST 20 POPS FOR LIGHT RAIN OR
SNOW...CHANGING OVER TO ALL SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS WILL DEPEND
ON TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT EXPECT A GRADIENT FROM THE LOW
TEENS ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER TO THE MID 20S ACROSS THE SOUTH.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE COOLER AND MOSTLY DRY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE 20S.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS START OUT IN FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT...WITH THE
NORTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE AREA AND OFF TO
THE EAST ON THURSDAY. THE END OF THE WORK WEEK LOOKS QUIET AND
WARMER AS ALL THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS HAVE 500MB HEIGHTS RISING
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH HOW TO
HANDLE THE CUT OFF LOW TO OUR SOUTH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE
GFS HAS THE SYSTEM MOVING OFF INTO MO SUNDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF
TRACKS IT WAY NORTH INTO SD AND BRINGS OUR CWA A LARGE AMOUNT OF
RAIN. THE GEM HAS A MORE SOUTHERN SOLUTION BUT WELL WEST OF THE
GFS. ENSEMBLES ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE...AND GIVEN MODEL
PERFORMANCE LATELY CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE SOLUTION IS LOW.
HOWEVER...SOME OF THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE IN AGREEMENT
WITH THE ECMWF AND THERE HAS BEEN SOME CONSISTENCY BETWEEN THE
CURRENT 00Z ECMWF AND THE 12Z RUN. ALLBLEND PUT SOME LOW POPS IN
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...AND WILL LEAVE THEM IN
FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...

IFR STRATUS DECK THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHWEST MN WILL MOVE EAST
INTO THE ARROWHEAD BY 14 UTC. IN ITS WAKE...MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST...BUT DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
PRECIPITATION. BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
VALLEY FLOOR.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

ROGERS/JR






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON OH

 102 AM EST MON MAR 5 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO
THE OHIO VALLEY BY DAYBREAK. AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH...SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE WILL SKIRT THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SNOW HAS FILLED IN ACROSS SOUTHEAST INDIANA AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY
EARLY THIS MORNING. VISIBILITIES ARE GENERALLY RUNNING A MILE OR
GREATER...BUT THEY ARE DROPPING TO ABOUT A HALF MILE AT TIMES IN
SOME OF THE HEAVIER BANDS. THE LATEST COUPLE OF RUC RUNS HAVE
TRENDED QUITE A BIT FARTHER NORTH WITH THE PCPN...CRANKING OUT
UPWARDS OF .15 INCHES OF QPF BY 12Z AS FAR NORTH AS CINCINNATI.
THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR ARE ALSO A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH THAN
THE 00Z GFS/NAM RUNS. BASED ON THIS AND RADAR TRENDS...WILL NUDGE
UP ACCUMULATIONS A BIT...BUT STILL KEEP THEM GENERALLY 1-2 INCHES
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. SINCE IT LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY
QUICK SHOT...WILL HOLD OFF ON EXTENDING THE ADVISORY FARTHER
NORTH AT THIS POINT.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...LEADING TO DRY CONDITIONS. MONDAY WILL REMAIN COOL IN
THE WAKE OF TONIGHTS SNOWFALL AS THE AXIS OF THE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE DOES NOT CROSS UNTIL THE LATE DAY. TUESDAY WILL START THE
WARMING TREND WITH READINGS PUSHING INTO THE 50S. LESS CLOUDY
SKIES AND WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TOWARDS 60 DEGREES. PM LOWS WILL BE IN THE
20S TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...CLIMB BACK TO THE 30S TUESDAY NIGHT AND
LINGER IN THE UNSEASONABLY MILD 40S WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PERIOD BEGINS WITH A COLD FRONT JUST TO THE W OF THE REGION. MODELS
AGREE IN SWINGING THE FRONT THRU THE REGION THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT...BUT DIFFER ON THE TIMING. THE ECMWF/CMC HEMISPHERIC ARE
QUICKER THAN THE GFS. THE ECMWF/CMC ARE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE FRONT
AND PUSH THE PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH IT EWD ON FRIDAY. THE GFS HANGS UP
THE FRONT IN RESPONSE TO AN H5 LOW THAT IS WAS CUTTING OFF IN THE
PLAINS. THIS CUT OFF LOOKS OVER DONE...SO LEANED TOWARDS THE
ECMWF/CMC SOLUTION.

NOT SEEING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SFC BASED INSTABILITY...SO WILL ONLY
CARRY SHRA THU INTO FRI.  RIGHT NOW WILL ONLY GO AS HIGH AS 50
POPS...BUT IT WILL PROBABLY NEED TO BE RAISED IF THINGS DONT
CHANGE.  HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE COLD
AIR THAT THE ECMWF SPILLS IN COMES IN AFTER THE PCPN HAS ENDS...SO
NO MENTION OF SNOW.

WENT A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN HPC TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD...TO BLEND WITH THE COOLER ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A FAST MOVING LOW TO THE SOUTH OF OUR AREA WILL PRODUCE LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW OVER SOUTHERN SITES KLUK/KCVG THROUGH 09Z...BECOMING
LIGHT FROM 09Z TIL SUNRISE. LIGHTER SNOW/FLURRIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF OUR TERMINALS THROUGHOUT THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. CIGS HAVE BEEN LOWERING OFF TO OUR WEST FOR THE
PAST FEW HOURS AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS OUR AREA OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS WILL RESULT IN MVFR CIGS ACROSS MOST
TERMINALS BEFORE SUNRISE.

THE LOW WILL MOVE AWAY FROM OUR REGION AFTER SUNRISE
TODAY...RESULTING IN GRADUALLY IMPROVING CIGS AND AN ENDING TO ANY
LINGERING LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES IN THE AREA. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT
OF THE NORTHWEST AT THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE BEHIND THE LOW. BY MID
EARLY AFTERNOON...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO PREVAIL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT AFTER SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES  ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     KYZ089-090-094>096.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     KYZ097>100.
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     INZ080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...KURZ/JGL
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...SITES
AVIATION...LATTO







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PORTLAND OR

 825 PM PST SUN MAR  4 2012

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT DROPPING DOWN FROM THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS LATE
TONIGHT WILL MOVE SE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA MON. COLDER AIR WILL
FOLLOW MON NIGHT INTO TUE...THEN WARMER WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES BUILDS BACK OVER THE
AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE
FORECAST AREA...EXCEPT FOR AN AREA OF FOG IN THE SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE
VALLEY THAT BROKE OUT FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
HAS ALREADY RE-FORMED. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS RE-DEVELOPING THIS EVENING IN THE REST OF THE VALLEY...BEFORE
CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT MOVE OVER THE AREA.

MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN THE TIMING OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...REACHING THE S WA COAST LATE TONIGHT...THEN PUSHING SE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA MON. TROPICAL MOISTURE
ENTRAINING INTO THE SYSTEM FROM THE SSW IS FLOWING OVER THE
FRONT...AND MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IS
POST FRONTAL. A PERIOD OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
DYNAMICALLY COOL THE AIR MASS...FORCING A QUICK DROP IN SNOW LEVELS.
NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS...IF YOU BUY INTO THEM...SUGGEST A DROP BELOW 1000
FT WITH THE PRECIPITATION MON. WHILE PRECIPITATION MAY BE HEAVY
BEHIND THE FRONT MON...DURATION IS LIMITED...SO IT LOOKS LIKE
MOUNTAINS ARE LIKELY TO WIND UP WITH ADVISORY AMOUNT SNOW.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING QUITE A COLD AIR MASS TO
QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH MON NIGHT AND TUE. 1000-500 MB THICKNESS VALUES
ON THE ORDER OF THE 516-519 DM ARE DEPICTED BY 12Z TUE...WITH H8
TEMPS BOTTOMING OUT FROM -8 TO -10 DEG C...WHICH SHOULD BE PLENTY
COLD FOR SNOW TO REACH VALLEY FLOORS. AT ISSUE THOUGH IS HOW
MUCH...IF ANY...PRECIPITATION FALLS MON NIGHT INTO TUE. MODELS DO
DEPICT SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STILL...ESP MON NIGHT WHEN LOW LEVEL
FLOW IS STILL OUT OF THE NW. OVER WATER TRAJECTORIES THOUGH ARE ON
THE SHORT SIDE...BECOMING MORE SO TUE...SO PROBABLY THE BEST CHANCES
FOR SNOW IN THE LOWLANDS WILL COME LATE MON NIGHT WHEN MOISTURE LOOKS
BEST AND A VORT MAX/TROUGH AXIS PUSHES THROUGH.

AS FLOW BECOME MORE NORTHERLY TUE...WILL SEE AIR MASS BEGIN TO DRY
OUT. AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN TUE NIGHT AND WINDS BECOME LIGHT... WOULD
EXPECT TO SEE CONDITIONS AGAIN FAVORABLE FOR FOG OR LOW CLOUDS.
LIKENS

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...THE SECOND
HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK IS EXPECTED TO BE DOMINATED BY UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AND IS LOOKING QUITE NICE. WED SHOULD BE A BIT OF A
TRANSITION DAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN AND STRENGTHENS BEHIND A
DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE MODELS HANG ON TO SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM THE MON/TUE SYSTEM...SO IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE
SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG INTO WED MORNING. LATER WED...THE AIRMASS
SHOULD BEGIN TO DRY OUT AS AN OFFSHORE FLOW PATTERN BEGINS TO DEVELOP
AND HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN. THEN THU AND FRI LOOK TO
BE THE WARMEST DAYS OF THE YEAR UP TO THIS POINT. MODELS KEEP
MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW OVER THE REGION ON THU WITH 850 MB TEMPS IN
THE 8 TO 10 C RANGE. THIS SHOULD MAKE FOR A WARM AND SUNNY DAY. ON
FRI...CURRENT MODEL RUNS SHOW THE FLOW BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY.
SHOULD BE ANOTHER NICE WARM DAY...BUT WITH TEMPS A BIT COOLER AT THE
COAST DUE TO THE LOSS OF THE OFFSHORE FLOW. THE NICE RUN LOOKS TO END
AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND...WHERE THE MODELS TREND TOWARD
UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH A RETURN TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING. JFP

&&

.AVIATION...VFR NEARLY EVERYWHERE AT 04Z...EXCEPT FOR MVFR CIGS
ALONG THE S WA COAST AND EXTREME N OREGON COAST AND A SMALL AREA
OF LIFR FOG FROM KCVO TO KEUG. NOT EXPECTING MUCH CHANGE BETWEEN
04Z AND 08Z...BUT AFTER 08Z A LITTLE MORE ONSHORE FLOW AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN MORE MVFR CIGS ALONG THE COAST
AND COASTAL VALLEYS...AND INCREASED IFR/LIFR FOG FOR THE INLAND
VALLEYS E OF THE COAST RANGE. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONTAL ZONE
SHOULD REACH THE S WA AND FAR N OREGON COAST AROUND 13Z...FOR
PREDOMINANT MVFR CONDITIONS...THEN DROPPING TO IFR BY 15Z IN
HEAVIER PRECIP. INLAND AREAS LIKELY TO STAY IFR/LOW-END MVFR 12Z
TO 16Z THEN PREDOMINANT MVFR WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE. COAST RANGE
MOUNTAINS AND WILLAPA HILLS WILL BE OBSCURED AFTER 15Z MON.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR AT 04Z AND EXPECT IT TO STAY THAT WAY
THROUGH AT LEAST 10Z. SHOULD SEE MVFR CIGS AROUND 10Z WITH A 30 TO
40 PERCENT CHANCE THAT CIGS COULD LOWER TO AROUND FL010 BY 12Z.
PRECIP TO REACH THE WRN APPROACHES AROUND 14Z...WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS THEREAFTER. HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL BE 16Z TO 20Z. MUCH
COLDER AIR MASS MOVES IN MON NIGHT FOR A THREAT OF SNOW SHOWERS.
ANY SNOW THAT DOES OCCUR MON NIGHT WILL BE MINIMAL. WEISHAAR

&&

.MARINE...THE NEXT FRONT EXTENDED FROM 50N 130W TO 44N 136W AT
04Z. LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONT WAS NEARING BUOY 005 WITH GUSTS UP
TO 25 KT. LATEST NAM CAME IN WEAKER WITH THE WIND JUST AHEAD AND
WITH THE FRONT...GENERALLY 25 KT AT THE BOUNDARY LAYER 12Z MON.
THE 00Z RUC WAS SIMILAR. THE 00Z 12KM WRF-GFS SHOWS A CORE OF 25
KT 10M WINDS WITH SOME SPOTS OF 30 KT FROM KTMK N TO THE S WA
COAST. DO NOT SEE ANY MODEL EVIDENCE OF A COASTAL JET DEVELOPING
WITH THIS FRONT. THEREFORE...MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
WARNINGS. EXPANDED THE GALE WARNING TO COVER THE PZZ270
WATERS...WITH A NEW VALID TIME OF 09Z TO 17Z. DECIDED TO GO WITH A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS AND SEAS FOR PZZ255 AND PZZ275.
THERE COULD BE SOME GUSTS TO 35 KT WITH THE FRONT...BUT NOT
ENOUGH OR WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO GO GALE. POST-FRONTAL NW WINDS
SHOULD BE SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL (20-25 KT WITH GUSTS TO
30 KT OR SO) GIVEN THE IMPRESSIVE COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT.
THE WIND WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO
THE WATERS AND A LOW DEVELOPS TO THE SOUTH.

SEAS ARE NEAR 10 FT THIS EVENING...CLOSELY MATCHING THE 6-HR
FORECAST FROM THE ENP. SEAS BUILD TO 11 TO 13 FT MON...THEN NEAR
15 FT TUE. SEAS WILL FALL BELOW 10 FT ONCE AGAIN BY LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY MORNING. WEISHAAR

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM PST MONDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 4 PM
    PST TUESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE
   OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM PST TUESDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60
    NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM MIDNIGHT
     TONIGHT TO 6 AM PST TUESDAY.
&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NASHVILLE TN

 1205 AM CST MON MAR 5 2012

.UPDATE...FOR AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS.
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED EAST OF KBNA. FRONT WL PUSH EAST OF KCSV
AROUND 09Z. EXPECT 5SM -RASN MIX AT KCSV AROUND 09Z WITH A NARROW
WINDOW OF -SN 12-15Z. COLDER H8 AIR EXPECTED LOWER CIGS AT ALL
THREE TERMINALS BY 12Z...TO MAINLY MVFR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 903 PM CST SUN MAR 4 2012/

DISCUSSION...SFC LOW IS LOCATED NEAR PADUCAH KY AND HAS BEEN
MOVING TOWARD THE SE DURING THE PREVIOUS 4-5 HOURS. IT IS EXPECTED
TO SOON TAKE A MORE EASTERLY COURSE...ALONG THE TN/KY BORDER.
CURRENTLY RAIN IS BEING OBSERVED IN NRN KY ALONG THE OH RIVER WITH
SNOW FURTHER NORTH OVER CENTRAL IL. SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED LATER THIS EVENING. RADAR IS SHOWING SOME REFLECTIVITY
OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER...WITH SFC DEWPOINTS STILL IN THE 20S...IT
WILL TAKE A WHILE FOR OUR ATMOSPHERE TO MOISTEN UP ENOUGH TO GET
RAIN AT THE GROUND.

LOCAL WRF MODEL AND THE HRRR ARE SHOWING PROJECTED REFLECTIVITY
CROSSING MAINLY THE NERN HALF OF THE AREA TONIGHT WITH ONLY MINOR
AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION. ANY PRECIP WILL BE LIQUID WITH TEMPS IN
THE BOUNDARY LAYER STILL IN THE 40S. LATER TONIGHT WHEN SFC TEMPS
DROP INTO THE MID 30S...LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE. LITTLE OR NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

WILL LEAVE ZONES ALONE FOR NOW.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 542 PM CST SUN MAR 4 2012/

UPDATE...AVIATION.

AVIATION...00Z TAFS.
DISTURBANCE ALOFT W/COLD AIR EXPECTED TO TRIGGER SCT RW- AT
KCKV/KBNA LATE EVE-EARLY AM. AT KCSV...COLDER AIR EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE SOME -SHSN AFT MIDNIGHT. CIGS WL LOWER TO MVFR AFTER
PASSAGE OF SYSTEM WITH COLDER H8 TEMPS. LOW CIGS WL HANG THROUGH
MUCH OF THE MORNING...BUT PCPN WL DEPART.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 232 PM CST SUN MAR 4 2012/

DISCUSSION...
CLIPPER SYSTEM CURRENTLY DIVING DOWN THROUGH MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WITH LOW CENTER OVER KANSAS CITY AT 19Z. SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS TIGHT ENOUGH ACROSS THE MID STATE FOR A FEW WIND
GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 30 MPH RANGE. MODELS FORECAST CLIPPER LOW TO
TRACK DOWN THROUGH EXTREME SOUTHERN ILLINOIS THEN INTO WESTERN
KENTUCKY AND ACROSS SOUTHERN KENTUCKY. CLIPPER WILL PULL ENOUGH
MOISTURE NORTHWARD FOR SOME SPRINKLES...LIGHT RAINSHOWERS MAINLY
NORTHERN AREAS OF MID STATE THROUGH EVENING BECOMING MIXED WITH
LIGHT SNOW NORTHEAST MIDDLE AND PLATEAU BECOMING ALL SNOW LATE
NIGHT AND AROUND DAYBREAK ON UPPER END OF PLATEAU. A DUSTING IS
POSSIBLE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40 COOKEVILLE TO CROSSVILLE. COULD
SEE A HALF INCH FENTRESS AND PICKETT BUT GROUND TEMPS WILL DICTATE.
CLIPPER CLEARS MID STATE QUICKLY AFTER DAYBREAK ON MONDAY WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S ON MONDAY. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION ON TUESDAY WITH TEMPS BACK UP INTO THE 60S FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK. GFS AND EURO CONTINUE TO DIFFER WITH NEXT SYSTEM
COMING OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERN US ALONG THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE
POLAR JET...BUT BASCIALLY WENT WITH POPS BEGINNING ON THURSDAY AND
CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES INTO WEEKEND. THURSDAY THROUGH WEEKEND
LOOKS BE AN UNSETTLED PERIOD.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

04







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSONVILLE FL

 938 AM EST MON MAR 5 2012

.UPDATE...WELL-DEFINED SFC COLD FRONT VIA RUC THICKNESS FIELD
MOVING THROUGH S CENTRAL GA AND SRN SC WITH SFC LOW PRES OVER WRN
VA...MOVING E TO SE. OUR LOCAL FLOW IS WLY AND CONTS TO INCREASE
AHEAD OF THE DRY COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH OUR AREA
DURING THE DAY WITH LLVL FLOW TURNING TO THE NW OVER NRN ZONES
AFTER 18Z. JAX 12Z SOUNDING SHOWS VERY DRY AIR WITH PWAT OF 0.27
INCHES AND WARM CONDS ALOFT...AND ABLE TO SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S OVER THE SRN HALF OF THE ZONES...WITH NEAR 70
OVER THE N ZONES DUE TO COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THESE TEMPS AFTER A
COOL MORNING WITH LOWS OF 32-35 OVER INLAND NE FL WHERE FROST WAS
NOTED EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S IN SE GA.

LOOKING AT WIND POTENTIAL...APPEARS WE SHOULD MIX UP TO ABOUT
4000-5500 FT TODAY TAPPING INTO THE 850 MB WINDS OF 30-45 MPH
AND THUS WE ARE LOOKING FOR GUSTS ROUGHLY IN THAT RANGE...
MAINLY OVER THE NRN 2/3RDS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WIND AND LAKE WIND
ADVISORIES LOOK GOOD ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. WINDS WILL PICK UP TO 15-20G25KT...EXCEPT GNV
WHERE SLIGHTLY WEAKER WINDS OF 10-15G20KT ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS HAVE PICKED UP TO A LITTLE SOONER THAN MODELS
PREDICTED. SCA IS UP FOR OFFSHORE GA WATERS WITH SCEC FOR OTHER
MARINE ZONES. BASED ON 41008 AT 23G27KT WILL PUT REST OF GA WATERS
IN SCA. WINDS AT 41012 ALREADY UP TO 17G21KT AND SEAS NEAR 4 FT.
OTHERWISE...FCST ON TRACK.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW TODAY AND INCREASING TO SOLID MODERATE ON TUE.
BUILDING OF SURF OF TUE-FRI WILL ENHANCE RIP CURRENTS PROBABLY
INTO HIGH RISK CATEGORY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG WARNING CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH
DRY W TO NW FLOW AND WARMING TEMPS. MIN RH VALUES IN THE 20S
EXPECTED WITH GUSTY WINDS AROUND 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 25-40
MPH.

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ALACHUA-BAKER-
     BRADFORD-CLAY-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-
     MARION-NASSAU-PUTNAM-ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR BAKER-
     BRADFORD-CLAY-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-HAMILTON-NASSAU-ST JOHNS-
     SUWANNEE-UNION.

GA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR APPLING-
     ATKINSON-BACON-BRANTLEY-CHARLTON-CLINCH-COASTAL CAMDEN-
     COASTAL GLYNN-COFFEE-ECHOLS-INLAND CAMDEN-INLAND GLYNN-JEFF
     DAVIS-PIERCE-WARE-WAYNE.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR APPLING-BACON-
     BRANTLEY-COASTAL CAMDEN-COASTAL GLYNN-INLAND CAMDEN-INLAND
     GLYNN-JEFF DAVIS-PIERCE-WAYNE.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ATKINSON-
     CHARLTON-CLINCH-COFFEE-ECHOLS-WARE.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE-ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND GA
     TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

SHASHY/WALKER






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LINCOLN IL

 515 AM CST MON MAR 5 2012

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 317 AM CST MON MAR 5 2012

MUCH OF THE MIDWEST IN THE WAKE OF SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT IS EXITING TO THE EAST.
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DOMINATING MUCH OF THE MIDWEST WITH A TROF OVER
THE ERN CONUS...AND WEAK RIDGING OVER THE WEST. PATTERN ABOUT TO
SHIFT OVERALL...WITH RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE MIDWEST AND A GENERAL
WARMING TREND...PARTICULARLY KICKING IN IN THE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
FIRST ISSUE WILL BE WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM ON ITS WAY LATE WED/THRU
THURSDAY AS THE NEXT TROF DIGS IN OVER THE PAC WEST. MODELS STILL
HAVING A BIT OF A PROBLEM COMING TO A CONSENSUS ABOUT HANDLING THE
UPPER LOW AND THE PATTERN SHIFT. FOR THE LAST 24 HRS...ECMWF AND GFS
ARE STARTING TO COME AROUND...BUT MAJORITY OF THE DIFFERENCES WILL
MAKE AN IMPACT ON ILX WEATHER. KEEPING A CONSERVATIVE BLEND.

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TOMORROW...
STILL A BIT COOL TODAY...AND MORNING WARM UP MAY BE DELAYED A BIT
UNTIL THE SUNSHINE CAN HELP MELT THE 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW. TOMORROW
SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER AS LLVL SOUTHERLY WINDS AND RATHER AGGRESSIVE
WAA KICKS IN IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDY TUESDAY WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS IN THE 30 TO 35 MPH RANGE PUSHING PARTS OF ILX INTO WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA AS STUBBORN HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS ON OVER THE
ATLANTIC COAST AND ANOTHER WAVE DIVES INTO THE WEST. PREVIOUS
CONCERNS FOR FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ON TUESDAY WILL LIKELY BE MITIGATED
SOMEWHAT BY THE IMPACT OF THE WIDESPREAD QPF FROM THE CLIPPER
IMPACTING THE LLVL MOISTURE PROFILE FOR ILX. A BETTER PICTURE LIKELY
LATER THIS EVENING ONCE THE SNOW MELT AND MIXING FROM THE DAY
BECOMES CLEARER. AT ANY RATE...RH IS SOMETHING TO WATCH...AS THE
WINDS WILL MOST DEFINITELY BE AN ISSUE FOR TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
WEATHER WISE...FRONT/LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE MIDWEST LATE
WED AFTERNOON...WITH PLENTY OF WAA AHEAD OF IT...INSTABILITY WILL
LEND ITSELF TO THUNDER WITH THE STORMS THEMSELVES. SLIGHTLY COOLER
BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WORKING INTO THE CONUS
WILL MODERATE ANY DROP QUICKLY. AS FAR AS MODEL PERFORMANCE...A BIT
OF A MESS...THOUGH STARTING TO REPEAT THE SOLUTION OF A SPLIT FLOW
SITUATION SETTING UP MIDWEEK... EJECTING ONE SFC LOW AND A FRONT WED
EVENING/THU MORNING...AND HOLDING HALF OF THE WAVE BACK OVER THE
DESERT SW AND CUTTING OFF THE 500MB LOW TO PUSH OUT LATER IN THE
WEEKEND. 00Z RUN OF THE ECMWF NOT HANDLING THE SPLIT OF THE ENERGY
OVERALL VERY WELL...AND SPREADING A BIT OF CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK
THROUGH ITS QPF FIELDS. AS A RESULT...NOT HOLDING TOO TIGHTLY TO ITS
SOLUTION THIS RUN. SEEMS THE GFS IS ADJUSTING A BIT MORE TO THE
SPLIT...AND SLIGHTLY WEAKENING THE CUT OFF LOW...AS IT HAD SPLIT THE
FLOW A COUPLE SOLUTIONS AGO. EITHER WAY...NOT MAKING MASSIVE CHANGES
TO THE BLEND IN THE EXTENDED...BUT LIKE THE TREND OF THE GFS FOR
THIS RUN IN PARTICULAR AS THE ECMWF WORKS SOME KINKS OUT.

HJS
&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 515 AM CST MON MAR 5 2012

A FEW STRATOCU/STRATUS FRACTUS ARE DRIFTING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
AREA THIS MORNING...MAINLY AFFECTING CMI/DEC/BMI FOR THE FIRST
COUPLE OF HOURS. WINDS HAVE LIGHTENED UP AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES
FROM MO AND THIS HAS RESULTED IN SOME VISIBILITIES LOWER THAN
10SM...BUT DO NOT EXPECT ANY RESTRICTIONS BELOW VFR RANGE. QUIET
WEATHER ON TAP TODAY AS THE MO SURFACE HIGH MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN IL
AND ENDS UP NEAR THE APPALACHIANS BY 12Z TUE. LATEST RUC FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME STRATOCU REFORMATION LATE THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON MAINLY EAST. ANY BROKEN CEILINGS /MAINLY AFFECTING CMI/
SHOULD BE ABOVE 3K FT. RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL
STRENGTHEN SOUTH WINDS AFTER 00Z TUE...WITH 15-20 KTS COMMON ALONG
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DESPITE THE SOUTHERLY FLOW...NO SIGNIFICANT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN IS FORECAST UNTIL WELL AFTER THIS TAF PERIOD.

04
&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL

 616 AM CST MON MAR 5 2012

.UPDATE...
KEEPING AN EYE ON CLOUD TRENDS AND WILL UPDATE AS NEEDED. AXIS OF
LOW CLOUDS SLIDING EWD FROM CENTRAL IA WITH MORE WIDESPREAD AREA
OVER NORTHERN IA EXPANDING SEWD SOME PER SATL LOOP. THESE CLOUDS
LINE UP WELL WITH RUC 925-850 MB MOISTURE ADVECTION WHICH WEAKENS
WHILE MOVING INTO PORTIONS OF EASTERN IA THIS AM. COMBINATION OF
THIS AND SFC HEATING OVER FRESH SNOW COVER LIKELY TO FIRE SCT-BKN
ST/SC BY MID AM... AND LAST COUPLE OF RUNS OF HRRR CIG PRODUCT
DEPICTING THIS. BOTTOM LINE... SKY COVER MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED
AND THIS TO HAVE BIG RAMIFICATIONS ON HIGH TEMPS AND GROWING CONCERNS
TEMPS TOO WARM SOME AREAS GIVEN SINGLE DIGITS OVER PORTIONS OF
EASTERN IA FROM KIIB-KCID-KIOW-KAWG AND WESTWARD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 552 AM CST MON MAR 5 2012/

AVIATION...
INITIAL CONCERN IS CLOUD TRENDS/CIGS THEN LLWS TNGT. SKIES ARE SKC
EARLY THIS AM BUT WATCHING AXIS OF LOW CLOUDS PASSING THROUGH
CENTRAL IA WHICH COINCIDES WITH RIDGE AXIS WITH MOISTURE BENEATH
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. MOST CONCENTRATED AREA OF LOW CLOUDS WAS
OVER NORTHERN IA WITH RECENT SATL LOOP SHOWING SOME
EXPANSION/DEVELOPMENT S/SE. MODELS NOT HANDLING LOW CLOUDS TRENDS.
LATEST RUC MOISTURE ADVECTION PROGS IN 925-950 MB LAYER THOUGH
DOING REASONABLY WELL WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWS MOISTURE ADVECTION
WORKING INTO EASTERN IA 12Z-15Z WHILE WEAKENING CONSIDERABLY. HAVE
ADDED ST/SC WITH MVFR BASES AT THE TERMINALS TDY BUT NO CIGS
MENTIONED ATTIM... AND WILL MONITOR SATL AND OB TRENDS FOR
POSSIBLY NEEDING TO INTRODUCE IFR TO LOW MVFR CIGS ESPECIALLY AT
KCID AND KDBQ. OTHERWISE... MID CLOUDS OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL
PROPAGATE E/SE AND ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTN EXITING N/E
SECTIONS THIS EVE. WINDS IN PROCESS OF BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OR LIGHT W/SW AS RIDGE AXIS APPROACHES. THIS AFTN WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 10-15 KTS FROM THE SOUTH. WINDS TO REMAIN S/SE
AT 10-20 KTS TNGT IN TIGHTENING MSLP GRADIENT. COULD SEE SOME
HIGHER GUSTS AT TIMES. NAM AND GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW 45-50 KTS
OF WIND AT 1500-1800 FT AGL AFT 06Z AND HAVE ADDED MENTION OF LLWS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 AM CST MON MAR 5 2012/

SYNOPSIS...
SHORTWAVE /CLIPPER SYSTEM/ WHICH PRODUCED 1-3 INCH SNOWFALL ACCUMS
IN MANY AREAS MOSTLY WEST AND SOUTH OF QC YSTDY IS PASSING
THROUGH THE OH VLY EARLY THIS AM BRINGING ACCUMULATING SNOW
TO AREAS HARD HIT BY TORNADOES LAST FRI. IN WAKE... HEIGHTS ALOFT
WERE BUILDING THROUGH THE MIDWEST WHILE SFC ANTICYCLONE WAS
CENTERED OVER THE MO RVR VLY EARLY THIS AM. INCREASING SUBSIDENCE
HAS LED TO CLEARING SKIES OVER MUCH OF THE REGION EXCEPT
FOR AREAS NORTHEAST OF QC. THIS HAS LED TO LARGE TEMP CONTRAST
RANGING FROM TEENS AND EVEN A FEW SINGLE DIGITS WHERE SKIES HAVE
CLEARED AND OVER FRESH SNOW COVER... TO M/U 20S IN AREAS WHERE
CLOUDS PERSIST.

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
FAIRLY CHALLENGING TEMP FCST WHICH IS THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THE
PD.

TDY... SFC ANTICYCLONE TO SLIDE S/E OF CWA WITH RIDGE AXIS PASSING
BY MIDDAY. THUS COLD ADVECTION TO SUBSIDE BY MID AM WITH NEUTRAL
ADVECTION THROUGH MIDDAY AS WINDS GO LIGHT AND/OR BEGIN BACKING TO
S/SW. THIS AFTN WILL FEATURE ONSET OF WARM ADVECTION AS S/SE WINDS
ON BACKSIDE OF DEPARTING RIDGE INCREASE TO AROUND 10-15 KTS MID-LATE
PM. SKIES TO BE GENERALLY SUNNY/MOSUNNY THIS AM WITH INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE... AND ABUNDANT SOLAR INSOLATION TO GO TO WORK ON SNOW
COVER. FIRST CONCERN IS WITH FRESH 2-3 INCHES IN SOME AREAS THAT MUCH
OF SOLAR ENERGY WILL GO TO MELTING SNOW MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO WARM
ESPECIALLY WITH VERY COLD START WITH SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS IN
SOME AREAS. NEXT CONCERN AND POTENTIAL FLY IN OINTMENT OF TEMP FCST
IS MODEL RH PROGS WHICH SUGGEST INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH THE
WARM ADVECTION ALOFT. EARLY AM SATL BEARS OUT THESE DEVELOPING CLOUDS
OVER THE DAKOTAS WHICH ARE SLIDING E/SE. THESE LIKELY TIME IN DURING
PEAK HEATING AND MAY BE FAIRLY OPAQUE OR THICK ENOUGH TO BLOCK OUT SUN
MOSTLY NORTH 1/3-1/2. THUS COULD ALSO NEGATE SOME OF WARMING POTENTIAL.
TAKING ALL OF THE ABOVE INTO ACCOUNT HAVE NUDGED DOWN HIGHS FROM
PREVIOUS FCST IN MANY AREAS... WITH WIDESPREAD 30S. LIKELY TO SEE
STRONG TEMP GRADIENT SOUTH OF SNOW COVER WHERE PROGGED LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS AND VERIFICATION OF HIGHS FROM YSTDY WOULD SUPPORT M/U 40S
PORTIONS OF EXTREME SOUTHEAST IA AND NORTHEAST MO.

TNGT... WARM ADVECTION TO CONTINUE STRENGTHENING ON INCREASING AND
GUSTY S/SE WINDS 15-25 MPH. AS RESULT... NOT EXPECTING TOO MUCH
OF A DROP OFF ON TEMPS DESPITE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION IS QUITE IMPRESSIVE WITH 925 MILLIBAR TEMPS CLIMBING 10+ DEGS
INTO GENERAL RANGE OF AROUND 4C NORTHEAST TO NEAR 10C SOUTHWEST BY 12Z.
SFC TEMPS TO RESPOND BY STEADILY CLIMBING THROUGH THE NIGHT THUS HAVE
CONTINUED WITH NON-STANDARD TEMP CURVE IN GRIDS.   ..05..

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

WINDY AND MUCH WARMER WEATHER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED
BY A COLD FRONT THAT WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN...AND A RETURN OF TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK. LATEST MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LATE
WED/WED NIGHT TIMING OF THIS FRONT AND FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE
AVERAGE WITH THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER...THE FOLLOWING SYSTEM FOR THE
WEEKEND...CONSISTING OF AN UPPER LOW EMBEDDED IN A SPLIT FLOW
PATTERN...HAS A HIGH LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY WITH POOR MODEL AGREEMENT.

TUESDAY...THE AREA WILL BE BATHED IN A STRONG WARM ADVECTION RETURN
FLOW AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LEE TROUGH IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT. HAVE
KEPT FORECAST HIGHS IN A RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE UPPER
60S IN THE FAR SOUTH. THIS IS CLOSE TO THE WARMER GFS/MAV AND ECMWF
GUIDANCE...CONSISTENT WITH THEIR FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING MIXING
OUT TO AT LEAST 900 MB. THE NAM/MET APPEARED TO BE HANGING ONTO OUR
SNOW COVER TOO LONG...WITH ITS GUIDANCE HOLDING THE HIGHWAY 20
CORRIDOR IN THE 40S. THIS SNOW COVER BIAS WAS WAS ALSO REFLECTED IN
LOWER NAM SURFACE WINDS OVER THE NORTH AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. COUNTING ON THE SNOW TO BE LARGELY GONE BY MID
MORNING...HAVE GONE CLOSER TO THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH WIDESPREAD 20
TO 25 MPH WINDS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 35 MPH THROUGH THE DAY. THESE
WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH SOME TUE NIGHT...BUT REMAIN BRISK...HOLDING
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S THROUGH THE NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...00Z MODELS HAVE TRENDED A BIT
SLOWER WITH THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT AND HAVE DELAYED THE
ONSET OF RAIN CHANCES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST DURING THE DAY.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN ON DEVELOPING 50 TO NEAR 70 KT WINDS AT
850 SHOULD RESULT IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE DAY...WHICH
WILL BE NEEDED TO CONTAIN HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.
DEVELOPING SHOWERS SHOULD ALSO HELP TO HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN SOME.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON ELEVATED CONVECTION LOOKS LIMITED
DUE TO A WARM MID LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION SHOWN ON SOUNDINGS
INCREASING IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS CAP WEAKENS EARLY WED NIGHT...AND
WITH SUFFICIENTLY STEEP 850MB TO 500 MB LAPSE RATES OF TEMPERATURE
AND THETAE...HAVE PLACED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SE HALF
OF THE AREA FOR POSSIBLE CONVECTION ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THE BULK
OF THE SHOWERS OVERNIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE POST FRONTAL. HAVE GONE
WITH A MODEL BLEND OF WIDESPREAD .25 TO .50 QPF AMOUNTS...WHICH MAY
NEED TO BE FURTHER REFINED UPWARDS BASED ON PW VALUES THAT ARE SHOWN
PUSHING 1 INCH IN THE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT.

ONCE THE FRONT EXITS THE FAR SOUTHEAST EARLY THU...THE REMAINDER OF
THE WORKWEEK LOOKS DRY WITH NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS
HIGH PRESSURE TRAVERSES THE REGION AT THE SURFACE UNDER A NW FLOW ALOFT.
OVER THE WEEKEND...THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE TRENDED TOWARD BETTER
CONTINUITY OVER THE PAST COUPLE RUNS DEPICTING AN UPPER LOW OVER THE
CENTRAL U.S...BUT DIFFER IN BOTH THE PLACEMENT OF THIS LOW AND THE
PHASING OF WAVES IN THE SPLIT FLOW. THIS RESULTS IN A LARGE
DIFFERENCE IN BOTH THE PLACEMENT AND TRACK OF A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. OVERALL...THE ADVERTISED PATTERN IS MORE FAVORABLE
FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE REGION AND POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED FOR
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS DEVELOPING PATTERN CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS THAT WERE MORE
AMPLIFIED AND SUGGESTED A DEEPER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. TEMPERATURES
THUS CONTINUE TO BE ADJUSTED UPWARDS. FORECAST NOW HAS HIGHS IN THE
40S SATURDAY...THEN 50S SUNDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 30S.
SHEETS..

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL

 552 AM CST MON MAR 5 2012

.AVIATION...
INITIAL CONCERN IS CLOUD TRENDS/CIGS THEN LLWS TNGT. SKIES ARE SKC
EARLY THIS AM BUT WATCHING AXIS OF LOW CLOUDS PASSING THROUGH
CENTRAL IA WHICH COINCIDES WITH RIDGE AXIS WITH MOISTURE BENEATH
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. MOST CONCENTRATED AREA OF LOW CLOUDS WAS
OVER NORTHERN IA WITH RECENT SATL LOOP SHOWING SOME
EXPANSION/DEVELOPMENT S/SE. MODELS NOT HANDLING LOW CLOUDS TRENDS.
LATEST RUC MOISTURE ADVECTION PROGS IN 925-950 MB LAYER THOUGH
DOING REASONABLY WELL WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWS MOISTURE ADVECTION
WORKING INTO EASTERN IA 12Z-15Z WHILE WEAKENING CONSIDERABLY. HAVE
ADDED ST/SC WITH MVFR BASES AT THE TERMINALS TDY BUT NO CIGS
MENTIONED ATTIM... AND WILL MONITOR SATL AND OB TRENDS FOR
POSSIBLY NEEDING TO INTRODUCE IFR TO LOW MVFR CIGS ESPECIALLY AT
KCID AND KDBQ. OTHERWISE... MID CLOUDS OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL
PROPAGATE E/SE AND ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTN EXITING N/E
SECTIONS THIS EVE. WINDS IN PROCESS OF BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OR LIGHT W/SW AS RIDGE AXIS APPROACHES. THIS AFTN WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 10-15 KTS FROM THE SOUTH. WINDS TO REMAIN S/SE
AT 10-20 KTS TNGT IN TIGHTENING MSLP GRADIENT. COULD SEE SOME
HIGHER GUSTS AT TIMES. NAM AND GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW 45-50 KTS
OF WIND AT 1500-1800 FT AGL AFT 06Z AND HAVE ADDED MENTION OF LLWS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 AM CST MON MAR 5 2012/

SYNOPSIS...
SHORTWAVE /CLIPPER SYSTEM/ WHICH PRODUCED 1-3 INCH SNOWFALL ACCUMS
IN MANY AREAS MOSTLY WEST AND SOUTH OF QC YSTDY IS PASSING
THROUGH THE OH VLY EARLY THIS AM BRINGING ACCUMULATING SNOW
TO AREAS HARD HIT BY TORNADOES LAST FRI. IN WAKE... HEIGHTS ALOFT
WERE BUILDING THROUGH THE MIDWEST WHILE SFC ANTICYCLONE WAS
CENTERED OVER THE MO RVR VLY EARLY THIS AM. INCREASING SUBSIDENCE
HAS LED TO CLEARING SKIES OVER MUCH OF THE REGION EXCEPT
FOR AREAS NORTHEAST OF QC. THIS HAS LED TO LARGE TEMP CONTRAST
RANGING FROM TEENS AND EVEN A FEW SINGLE DIGITS WHERE SKIES HAVE
CLEARED AND OVER FRESH SNOW COVER... TO M/U 20S IN AREAS WHERE
CLOUDS PERSIST.

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
FAIRLY CHALLENGING TEMP FCST WHICH IS THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THE
PD.

TDY... SFC ANTICYCLONE TO SLIDE S/E OF CWA WITH RIDGE AXIS PASSING
BY MIDDAY. THUS COLD ADVECTION TO SUBSIDE BY MID AM WITH NEUTRAL
ADVECTION THROUGH MIDDAY AS WINDS GO LIGHT AND/OR BEGIN BACKING TO
S/SW. THIS AFTN WILL FEATURE ONSET OF WARM ADVECTION AS S/SE WINDS
ON BACKSIDE OF DEPARTING RIDGE INCREASE TO AROUND 10-15 KTS MID-LATE
PM. SKIES TO BE GENERALLY SUNNY/MOSUNNY THIS AM WITH INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE... AND ABUNDANT SOLAR INSOLATION TO GO TO WORK ON SNOW
COVER. FIRST CONCERN IS WITH FRESH 2-3 INCHES IN SOME AREAS THAT MUCH
OF SOLAR ENERGY WILL GO TO MELTING SNOW MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO WARM
ESPECIALLY WITH VERY COLD START WITH SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS IN
SOME AREAS. NEXT CONCERN AND POTENTIAL FLY IN OINTMENT OF TEMP FCST
IS MODEL RH PROGS WHICH SUGGEST INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH THE
WARM ADVECTION ALOFT. EARLY AM SATL BEARS OUT THESE DEVELOPING CLOUDS
OVER THE DAKOTAS WHICH ARE SLIDING E/SE. THESE LIKELY TIME IN DURING
PEAK HEATING AND MAY BE FAIRLY OPAQUE OR THICK ENOUGH TO BLOCK OUT SUN
MOSTLY NORTH 1/3-1/2. THUS COULD ALSO NEGATE SOME OF WARMING POTENTIAL.
TAKING ALL OF THE ABOVE INTO ACCOUNT HAVE NUDGED DOWN HIGHS FROM
PREVIOUS FCST IN MANY AREAS... WITH WIDESPREAD 30S. LIKELY TO SEE
STRONG TEMP GRADIENT SOUTH OF SNOW COVER WHERE PROGGED LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS AND VERIFICATION OF HIGHS FROM YSTDY WOULD SUPPORT M/U 40S
PORTIONS OF EXTREME SOUTHEAST IA AND NORTHEAST MO.

TNGT... WARM ADVECTION TO CONTINUE STRENGTHENING ON INCREASING AND
GUSTY S/SE WINDS 15-25 MPH. AS RESULT... NOT EXPECTING TOO MUCH
OF A DROP OFF ON TEMPS DESPITE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION IS QUITE IMPRESSIVE WITH 925 MILLIBAR TEMPS CLIMBING 10+ DEGS
INTO GENERAL RANGE OF AROUND 4C NORTHEAST TO NEAR 10C SOUTHWEST BY 12Z.
SFC TEMPS TO RESPOND BY STEADILY CLIMBING THROUGH THE NIGHT THUS HAVE
CONTINUED WITH NON-STANDARD TEMP CURVE IN GRIDS.   ..05..

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

WINDY AND MUCH WARMER WEATHER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED
BY A COLD FRONT THAT WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN...AND A RETURN OF TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK. LATEST MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LATE
WED/WED NIGHT TIMING OF THIS FRONT AND FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE
AVERAGE WITH THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER...THE FOLLOWING SYSTEM FOR THE
WEEKEND...CONSISTING OF AN UPPER LOW EMBEDDED IN A SPLIT FLOW
PATTERN...HAS A HIGH LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY WITH POOR MODEL AGREEMENT.

TUESDAY...THE AREA WILL BE BATHED IN A STRONG WARM ADVECTION RETURN
FLOW AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LEE TROUGH IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT. HAVE
KEPT FORECAST HIGHS IN A RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE UPPER
60S IN THE FAR SOUTH. THIS IS CLOSE TO THE WARMER GFS/MAV AND ECMWF
GUIDANCE...CONSISTENT WITH THEIR FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING MIXING
OUT TO AT LEAST 900 MB. THE NAM/MET APPEARED TO BE HANGING ONTO OUR
SNOW COVER TOO LONG...WITH ITS GUIDANCE HOLDING THE HIGHWAY 20
CORRIDOR IN THE 40S. THIS SNOW COVER BIAS WAS WAS ALSO REFLECTED IN
LOWER NAM SURFACE WINDS OVER THE NORTH AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. COUNTING ON THE SNOW TO BE LARGELY GONE BY MID
MORNING...HAVE GONE CLOSER TO THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH WIDESPREAD 20
TO 25 MPH WINDS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 35 MPH THROUGH THE DAY. THESE
WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH SOME TUE NIGHT...BUT REMAIN BRISK...HOLDING
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S THROUGH THE NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...00Z MODELS HAVE TRENDED A BIT
SLOWER WITH THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT AND HAVE DELAYED THE
ONSET OF RAIN CHANCES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST DURING THE DAY.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN ON DEVELOPING 50 TO NEAR 70 KT WINDS AT
850 SHOULD RESULT IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE DAY...WHICH
WILL BE NEEDED TO CONTAIN HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.
DEVELOPING SHOWERS SHOULD ALSO HELP TO HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN SOME.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON ELEVATED CONVECTION LOOKS LIMITED
DUE TO A WARM MID LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION SHOWN ON SOUNDINGS
INCREASING IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS CAP WEAKENS EARLY WED NIGHT...AND
WITH SUFFICIENTLY STEEP 850MB TO 500 MB LAPSE RATES OF TEMPERATURE
AND THETAE...HAVE PLACED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SE HALF
OF THE AREA FOR POSSIBLE CONVECTION ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THE BULK
OF THE SHOWERS OVERNIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE POST FRONTAL. HAVE GONE
WITH A MODEL BLEND OF WIDESPREAD .25 TO .50 QPF AMOUNTS...WHICH MAY
NEED TO BE FURTHER REFINED UPWARDS BASED ON PW VALUES THAT ARE SHOWN
PUSHING 1 INCH IN THE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT.

ONCE THE FRONT EXITS THE FAR SOUTHEAST EARLY THU...THE REMAINDER OF
THE WORKWEEK LOOKS DRY WITH NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS
HIGH PRESSURE TRAVERSES THE REGION AT THE SURFACE UNDER A NW FLOW ALOFT.
OVER THE WEEKEND...THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE TRENDED TOWARD BETTER
CONTINUITY OVER THE PAST COUPLE RUNS DEPICTING AN UPPER LOW OVER THE
CENTRAL U.S...BUT DIFFER IN BOTH THE PLACEMENT OF THIS LOW AND THE
PHASING OF WAVES IN THE SPLIT FLOW. THIS RESULTS IN A LARGE
DIFFERENCE IN BOTH THE PLACEMENT AND TRACK OF A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. OVERALL...THE ADVERTISED PATTERN IS MORE FAVORABLE
FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE REGION AND POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED FOR
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS DEVELOPING PATTERN CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS THAT WERE MORE
AMPLIFIED AND SUGGESTED A DEEPER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. TEMPERATURES
THUS CONTINUE TO BE ADJUSTED UPWARDS. FORECAST NOW HAS HIGHS IN THE
40S SATURDAY...THEN 50S SUNDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 30S.
.SHEETS..

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$





AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DODGE CITY KS

 531 AM CST MON MAR 5 2012

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 12Z TAFS...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST MON MAR 5 2012

TODAY:

FIRE WEATHER AND WINDS ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
EXTENSIVE ANALYSIS OF FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND MOS GUIDANCE STILL SUPPORT
A WIND ADVISORY ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME WELL
MIXED TO ABOUT 600 HPA WEST, 665 HPA WEST CENTRAL, 700 HPA CENTRAL.
WITHIN THIS LAYER, 30 TO 40 KT WINDS ARE EXPECTED. THE 0 TO 1 KM WIND
AVERAGE SHOWS THE STRONGEST AXIS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. FURTHER EAST,
THE EVENT LOOKS TO BE MORE MARGINAL. AS A RESULT, HAVE MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS
TO THE ONGOING WIND ADVISORY. MOS GUIDANCE ALSO SUPPORTS AREAS WEST
OF DODGE CITY SEEING ADVISORY LEVEL WIND SPEEDS. THE NAM HAD LOWER WIND
SPEEDS THAN COMPARED TO THE RUC AND GFS NEAR SURFACE. THE NAM MODEL
SOUNDING SHOWED THAT THERE IS NOT A SUPERADIABATIC LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE,
WHICH SEEMS UNLIKELY GIVEN THE STRONG INSOLATION/HEATING WE WILL SEE TODAY.
SPEAKING OF WHICH, TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH
MID 70S DEG F OUT WEST AND UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 DEG F ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE NEAR SUNSET. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND .30 SO THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE VERY DRY AND
MAINLY CLOUD FREE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

THE SECOND CONCERN IS FIRE WEATHER. HAVE RELIED MORE HEAVILY ON CONSRAW/CONSMOS
FOR DEWPOINT OUTPUT AS BOISE VERIFICATION SHOWS FAIRLY DECENT VERIFICATION
SCORES THAN COMPARED TO OTHER MODELS. DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 20S DEG F
AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S WILL PROMOTE RH`S IN THE LOW TEENS. MORE
SPECIFIC INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND IN THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW.

TONIGHT:

WINDS WILL SUBSIDE BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS TOWARDS 00Z. I HAVE WARMED
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS TONIGHTS LOWS LOOK
TO BE QUITE MILD...PARTICULARLY AT KP28. SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS COULD
SEE LOWS ONLY AROUND 50 DEG F. FURTHER NORTHWEST, 40S DEG F ARE EXPECTED.
THESE MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE IN RESPONSE TO A CONTINUED 5 TO 10 KT
S/SW WIND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THESE WINDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES
FROM FALLING THAT MUCH. BELIEVE THE 00Z NAM IS TOO COLD WITH THE LOWS
(UPPER 20S DEG F ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS VERSUS UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S DEG F FROM THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM).

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST MON MAR 5 2012

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT:
NOT MUCH WAS CHANGED TO THE FORECAST TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER
DID LOWER THE FORECAST HIGHS A DEGREE OR TWO IN THE CENTRAL AND EAST
GIVEN MIXING HEIGHTS A BIT LOWER THAN FARTHER WEST AND SOME CIRRUS
CLOUD COVER MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. A DEEP LEE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON RESULTING IN STRONG SOUTH WINDS ESPECIALLY
ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN ZONES...PROBABLY MEETING/EXCEEDING WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA ONCE AGAIN DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. BREEZY SOUTH
WINDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT KEEPING TEMPERATURES
RATHER WARM IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. BY 12Z WEDNESDAY...A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL BE KNOCKING ON THE DOOR OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS...AS DISCUSSED
IN MORE DETAIL BELOW.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY:
THERE ARE ALL SORTS OF FORECAST CHALLENGES DURING THIS TIME FRAME...INCLUDING
THE POSSIBILITY OF SUBSTANTIAL WINTER PRECIPITATION (INCLUDING ICE).
WEDNESDAY WILL START OF RATHER MILD WITH SOUTH WINDS KEEPING TEMPERATURES
UP IN THE 50S DURING THE MORNING HOURS OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
AWAITING UPSTREAM HOWEVER...IS THE COLD CANADIAN AIRMASS...AND IT WILL
NOT TAKE ITS TIME TO RUSH SOUTH INTO SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST WILL REFLECT TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 40S DURING THE AFTERNOON
...WITH MID TO UPPER 30S BY SUNSET OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. MEANWHILE
...A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW WILL BE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA WITH
A DEEP MOIST AIRMASS MAKING ITS WAY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH WEST
TEXAS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. SYNOPTICALLY...THIS IS SHAPING UP TO
BE A CLASSIC CONVERGENCE OF WARM/MOIST AIR WITH SHALLOW (MODIFIED) ARCTIC
AIR RIGHT OVER SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE HUGE QUESTION IS HOW FAST TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW 32 DEGREES
AT THE SURFACE. DESPITE IT BEING 72 HOURS OUT...THE NAM AND SREF MEANS
DO PAINT AN OMINOUS PICTURE WHICH MATCHES CLOSELY THE ECMWF IN THE SURFACE
FEATURES (OWING TO HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM/SREF
PROGS)...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING TO 30-32 SOMETIME DURING THE LATE
EVENING HOURS WEDNESDAY. IMMEDIATELY SOUTH IN THE 900-800MB LAYER OFF
THE SURFACE...DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES WILL BE 9-12 DEGC AND SCATTERED/NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT
AT THE SURFACE. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO
THE COLD SURFACE AIRMASS WHERE TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE WILL BE FALLING
DOWN TO (AND SLIGHTLY BELOW) FREEZING. A FAIRLY ROBUST WARM LAYER ALOFT
WILL BE LIKELY SUPPORTING FREEZING RAIN AS THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION
TYPE BY EARLY INDICATIONS OFF THE NAM/SREF MEANS AS WELL AS THE ECMWF.
IN THE GRIDS...HAVE TRIED TO REFLECT THE PRECIPITATION TYPE AS SNOW/SLEET
IN THE NORTHWEST SLEET/FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE BULK OF THE FORECAST
AREA AND FREEZING RAIN OR RAIN IN THE SOUTHEAST BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

THE INITIAL WAVE OF PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY WITH PERHAPS A LULL IN PRECIPITATION. THAT BEING SAID...LOW
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WILL LIKELY STILL BE ONGOING WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES
PRECARIOUSLY CLOSE TO 32F PRETTY MUCH ALL DAY. THE UPSHOT IS THAT SIGNIFICANT
ICING IS NOW CERTAINLY A HUGE CONCERN WITH THIS STORM GIVEN THE LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE ON THE WHOLE.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND:
BY LATE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...THE ECMWF MODEL SHOWS THE CENTER OF
THE UPPER LOW STILL OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO AND ANOTHER LOBE OF POTENTIAL
VORTICITY ROTATING AROUND THE LOW THURSDAY NIGHT...SETTING THE STAGE
FOR WHAT COULD BE ROUND 2 FRIDAY. THE NEAR-SURFACE ATMOSPHERE WILL MODIFY
SOME...BUT PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH TO KEEP WINTER PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE
FORECAST. SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS WILL BE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
SATURDAY...WHEN THE ECMWF FINALLY SHOWS THE UPPER LOW EJECTING NORTHEASTWARD.
THE ALLBLEND GUIDANCE WAS USED AND ONLY VERY SLIGHTLY MODIFIED FOR
THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 528 AM CST MON MAR 5 2012

UNDER A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE...DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL RESULTING IN CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY. STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
CONCERN WITH FREQUENT GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE 30 TO 35 KT
RANGE. WINDS WILL WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET...BUT 12 TO 15 KT WIND
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT TONIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST MON MAR 5 2012

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS (I.E. RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA) IS
EXPECTED TODAY AND TOMORROW. HAVE ADJUSTED THE RFW FURTHER WEST AS EASTERN
COUNTIES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO MEET THE 15 PERCENT RELATIVE HUMIDITY CRITERIA
PER NAM/RUC OUTPUT. HAVE LEFT THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH ALONE FOR TUESDAY,
ALTHOUGH WITH EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES AND CONTINUED LEE SURFACE TROUGHING
(AND RELATED SOUTHERLY WINDS), IT LOOKS LIKE TOMORROW WILL NEED ANOTHER
RED FLAG WARNING AS WELL. THOUGHT IT WAS BEST TO NOT HAVE TWO RFW`S
OUT SIMULTANEOUSLY TO AVOID CONFUSION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  71  44  76  47 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  73  40  80  44 /   0   0   0  10
EHA  75  44  79  44 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  74  42  80  46 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  70  43  75  47 /   0   0   0  10
P28  70  49  72  52 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON CST /11 AM MST/ TODAY TO 6 PM CST /5
PM MST/ THIS EVENING FOR KSZ043-044-061>063-074>077-084>087.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM CST /9 AM MST/ THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST
/5 PM MST/ THIS EVENING FOR KSZ030-043>045-061>064-074>078-
084>088.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR KSZ043-061>063-074>076-
084>086.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SUGDEN
SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM....UMSCHEID
AVIATION...UMSCHEID







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS GRAY ME

 721 AM EST MON MAR 5 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFFSHORE TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND LATE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A WARM FRONT MOVING IN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. MUCH WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING... BRINGING COOLER CONDITIONS BACK TO THE
REGION AS WELL AS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED WELL OFFSHORE WITH SURFACE TROUGH AND UPPER
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS HELPING TO KEEP SNOW SHOWERS GOING ACROSS THE
AREA. THE MAIN AREA OF SNOW WAS NOW LOCATED OVER SKOWHEGAN AND
AUGUSTA AND MOVING STEADILY EAST. LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS THESE
ECHOES WILL DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. HIGHER DBZ
ECHOES HAVE ALSO DISAPPEARED. ANOTHER AREA OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
OVER THE NH MOUNTAINS IS BEING ENHANCED BY AN AREA OF 800MB
FRONTOGENESIS AND WILL WEAKEN LATER THIS MORNING AS THE FRONTAL
FORCING MOVES AWAY. OVERALL ONLY EXPECTING ANOTHER 0.5-1.0" OF
SNOW. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE SUPPRESSED TOWARDS THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY IN THE UPPER
TEENS AND LOWER 20S NORTH TO UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
EXPECTING A CHILLY NIGHT TONIGHT AS DENSE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN
FROM THE WEST AND ALLOWS WINDS TO DIE DOWN AND SKIES TO CLEAR.
THIS WILL RESULT IN GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WITH PW
VALUES AROUND 0.10". WENT CLOSE TO NAM12 VALUES FOR LOW
TEMPERATURES WHICH GIVES ZERO TO JUST BELOW ZERO READINGS ACROSS
THE NORTH AND SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THE COAST WILL BE
A BIT WARMER WITH LOWS AROUND 10 DEGREES F.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DIRECTLY CENTERED OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY
RESULTING IN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY WARMER BUT WE WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDINESS AS SHORT
WAVE ENERGY WORKS ITS WAY THROUGH RIDGING ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WARM FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
TUESDAY NIGHT... WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES BEHIND IT. THE WARMER WEATHER WILL OVERSPREAD THE
WHOLE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 40S AND 50S. BY
THURSDAY... HIGHS WILL REACH THE 50S AND EVEN LOW 60S IN SOUTHERN
AREAS WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS.

A COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO NEW ENGLAND FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY
NIGHT AND TO THE COAST BY FRIDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH THE BEST
FORCING WITH THIS FRONT IS WELL TO THE NORTH... GOOD CONVERGENCE
AND DECENT MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME
RAIN SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT... AND MAYBE A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS BEHIND IT. BY FRIDAY... COLDER AIR WILL BE MOVING IN ON
NORTHWEST WINDS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN INTO THE 30S OR
LOW 40S. THE COOLER WEATHER LASTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...TAFS ARE VARIABLE THE NEXT FEW HOURS DUE TO SNOW
SHOWERS...HOWEVER THE SHOWERS SHOULD END BY DAYBREAK.
MVFR/MARGINAL VFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH
STRATUS IN THE AREA. WINDS MAY GUST INTO THE LOWER 20S ALONG THE
COAST.

LONG TERM...QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH MAINLY VFR THROUGH MOST
OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER... SOME SHOWERS ALONG A FRONT ON THURSDAY
NIGHT MAY BRING MVFR CONDITIONS. VFR RETURN FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES. ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS
ARE CURRENTLY BELOW CRITERIA WAVES AND WIND GUSTS SHOULD INCREASE
AS COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

LONG TERM...GENERALLY QUIET... HOWEVER SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THURSDAY
MAY INCREASE INTO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS WITH GUSTS TO 25 OR
30 KT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HANES







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC

 658 AM EST MON MAR 5 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
VIRGINIA THIS MORNING...MOVING OFFSHORE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE MID ATLANTIC WEATHER
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND SINKS SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. MORE HIGH PRESSURE
IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
GIVEN RADAR TRENDS...HAVE EXPANDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO
INCLUDE A FEW MORE COUNTIES. 06Z NAM/GFS AND RECENT RUC/HRRR RUNS
SUPPORT THIS ADJUSTMENT. IN FACT...AM WORRIED BY THE SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS FROM THE HRRR AS THEY SUGGEST WARNING CRITERIA FOR
SNOW CLIPPING OUR SOUTHERN CWA. FEEL THAT THIS IS OVERDONE AND AM
HOLDING ONTO ADVISORIES FOR NOW...1 TO 3 INCHES ON THE NORTHERN
TIER OF THE ADVISORY AND 2 TO 4 INCHES ON THE SOUTHERN TIER.
BANDING WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A TIGHT
GRADIENT OF SNOWFALL AND HAVE NOT ADJUSTED THE NORTHERN FRINGE
ATTM. PREV BELOW...


POTENT SHORTWAVE/CLIPPER SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY WILL
MOVE TO THE EAST TODAY...PASSING OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS
MORNING AND THROUGH SOUTHERN VIRGINIA DURING THE MIDDAY AND EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS.

00Z GUIDANCE SHIFTED THE TRACK OF THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED QPF A
LITTLE FURTHER TO THE NORTH. NCEP GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THIS
STORM EXHIBITING A TIGHT GRADIENT OF SNOW. HAVE ALREADY EXPANDED THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO INCLUDE SEVERAL MORE COUNTIES FROM
AUGUSTA EAST THROUGH ALBEMARLE/ORANGE/SPOTSYLVANIA. LATEST NCEP
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS AREA WOULD BE ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF A
MODERATE TO HEAVY BAND OF SNOWFALL. IN ADDITION TO THE PVA
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM...MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS AREA IS WHERE
THERE MAY ALSO BE ENHANCED FRONTOGENETIC FORCING. ALWAYS HAVE TO
WORRY ABOUT BANDING RESULTING IN MORE SNOWFALL. THIS WORRY IS
COMPOUNDED BY THE 06Z NAM JUST COMING IN...SUGGESTING WARNING
CALIBER AMOUNTS ACROSS NELSON AND SOUTHERN ALBEMARLE COUNTIES.
DON/T HAVE SUPPORT FROM OTHER GUIDANCE FOR A WARNING...SO WILL HOLD
WITH THE ADVISORY FOR NOW WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS TOWARD NELSON
COUNTY. IN ADDITION...RECENT HRRR RUNS SUGGEST THAT ADVISORY
SNOWFALL COULD REACH A TIER OF COUNTIES FURTHER NORTH ALTHOUGH THIS
IS NOT PORTRAYED BY THE NAM/GFS WHICH SHOW THE TIGHT QPF GRADIENT
WELL. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS POTENTIAL AS THE MORNING
PROGRESSES. HAVE THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF LOW POPS UP TO NEAR
INTERSTATE 66...WITH A DRY FORECAST UP TOWARD THE BALTIMORE AREA.

HAVE UNDERCUT MOS FOR TODAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION
OF THE CWA GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP.

CLIPPER WILL BE A FAST-MOVER...LIKELY OFF THE SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA
COAST BY MID AFTERNOON AND TAKING THE PRECIP WITH IT. SKIES WILL
REMAIN CLOUDY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING SKIES WILL RAPIDLY CLEAR AND COLDER AIR
WILL MOVE INTO THE CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST ACROSS THE LWX CWA ON TUESDAY WITH
MAX TEMPS AROUND 50F ACROSS THE CWA...JUST BELOW NORMAL. THIS IS
EXCEPT FOR THE SHEN VLY AND WEST WHERE SWLY RETURN FLOW IN THE
AFTERNOON MIXES DOWN THE WARM AIR ADVECTING IN...EXPECT MID 50S OUT
THERE. FEW/SCT MID LEVEL CLOUDS ALONG A LOWER-MID LEVEL WARM
FRONT...BUT DRY.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CENTER ANCHORS TO THE SE OF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...PUMPING WARM GULF AIR ACROSS THE REGION.
EXPECT A WARMING TREND AND AMPLE SUNSHINE. 8C 850MB TEMPS ON
WED...WITH 10 TO 20 KT SWLY MIXING FLOW EXPECT AT LEAST MID 60S MAX
TEMPS WEDNESDAY. BETTER MIXING ON THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF A COLD
FRONT. MAX TEMPS MID TO UPR 60S...70F SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL MID ATLANTIC THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. INCREASED POPS TO HIGHER CHANCE RANGE...WITH
MOST OF THE AREA IN 40 POP THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH SRN MD 40 POP FOR
FRIDAY AS FRONT SAGS SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NRN MID ATLANTIC BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FOR
THE WEEKEND...EXPECT AN ONSHORE FLOW AND TEMPERATURES BACK TO AROUND
NORMAL. WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR THE FRONT TO STALL AND A CAD
SCENARIO TO SETUP FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SN WILL DEVELOP AT CHO BTWN 11-12Z...BEGINNING A PERIOD OF IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY LASTING UNTIL AROUND NOON. HAVE KEPT PRECIP SOUTH
OF ALL OTHER TERMINALS...BUT THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE THAT LIGHT
SN MAKES IT TO IAD-DCA ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF PRECIP ASSOCIATED
WITH A CLIPPER THAT PASSES SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY. AS CLIPPER
MOVES OFF THE COAST...WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
DIMINISHING TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

HIGH PRESSURE/VFR TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY. NLY FLOW TUESDAY MORNING
BECOMES LIGHT AND VARIABLE UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER...THEN
BECOMES SWLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE CENTER MOVES OFFSHORE.
SLY/SWLY FLOW THEN THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORS EAST OF
CAPE HATTERAS AND AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
WITH RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
CLIPPER PASSES SOUTH OF THE WATERS TODAY. GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP THIS
AFTERNOON FOR SCA CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP. SCA WINDS MAY LAST WELL
INTO THE EVENING BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT.

NLY/NWLY FLOW CONTINUES TO GUST AROUND 18KT THROUGH MID TUESDAY
MORNING FOR SRN MD PORTION OF CHES BAY...SO SCA WAS EXTENDED UNTIL
15Z FOR SOUTH OF DRUM PT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW THEN BECOMES
SLY/SWLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE ANCHORS EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS. SCA POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH THROUGH THE CHESAPEAKE BAY
REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY BRINGING SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VAZ025-026-
     036>038-050-056-503-504.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ531-532-538>542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ533-534-537-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EST
     TONIGHT FOR ANZ530-535-536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BPP
NEAR TERM...BPP
SHORT TERM...BAJ
LONG TERM...BAJ
AVIATION...BPP/BAJ
MARINE...BPP/BAJ








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND FORKS ND

 946 AM CST MON MAR 5 2012

.DISCUSSION...

THE MAIN CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE SNOW BAND THAT IS MOVING INTO
WESTERN MN THIS MORNING. THERE IS A STRONG AREA OF MID LEVEL WARM
AIR ADVECTION AND SATURATION OCCURRING NEAR SNOW BAND. THE OVERALL
MOVEMENT OF THE SNOW SHOULD BE FAST ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE MUCH
SNOW...BUT UP TO AN INCH IS POSSIBLE IN NW MN THIS AFTERNOON. WILL
RAISE POPS THIS AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POTENTIAL. IN
ADDITION...WINDS IN THE VALLEY WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH AND GUST TO
25MPH AT TIMES...PERHAPS A BIT HIGHER. THEREFORE EXPECT DRIFTING
SNOW AT LEAST...WITH PLENTY OF FLUFFY SNOW AROUND. IF WINDS
INCREASE A BIT MORE...WILL MONITOR FOR SOME BLOWING SNOW IN OPEN
AREAS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT FOR NOW WON/T MENTION IN THE GRIDS.

&&

.AVIATION...

A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE INTO NW MN...REDUCING VSBYS AT
TIMES INTO THE IFR RANGE. BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY
THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE VALLEY FLOOR WITH SOME BLOWING SNOW A POSSIBILITY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 AM CST MON MAR 5 2012/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPERATURES...WHICH WILL
DEPEND ON A NUMBER OF DIFFERENT FACTORS INCLUDING CLOUDS...SNOW
COVER/TEMPERATURE...WIND DIRECTION/SPEED AND VEGETATION. GFS/NAM/
ECMWF/GEM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL USE A MODEL BLEND FOR
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

EARLY THIS MORNING...DENSE FOG ALONG SURFACE RIDGE AXIS FROM
ELBOW LAKE TO DETROIT LAKES WILL DISSIPATE AND LIFT AS SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW INCREASES. GIVEN PATCHY NATURE OF FOG...WILL COVER
HAZARD WITH NOW-CASTS THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING.

BIG STORY TODAY WILL BE STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION FROM THE SURFACE
TO 850 HPA. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THERMAL ADVECTION
WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY. REGIONAL WSR-88D RADARS
SHOW SOME MODEST ECHOES WITH THESE CLOUDS...BUT NOTHING IS
REACHING THE GROUND. HOWEVER...LATEST HRRR AND 00 UTC ECMWF PAINT
SOME LIGHT QPF ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING AND
WILL EXPAND 20 POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW ACROSS NORTHWEST MN AND
PORTIONS OF EASTERN ND. ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE A TENTH OR TWO AT
BEST.

BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 30 KTS BY AFTERNOON...SO
EXPECT BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH...
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE VALLEY FLOOR. WIND DIRECTION IS NOT IDEAL FOR
STRONG SURFACE WARMING AND SNOWPACK TEMPERATURES ARE STILL IN THE
20S...SO A LOT OF THERMAL ENERGY SHOULD GO INTO RIPENING THE
SNOWPACK TODAY. AS A RESULT...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY PEAK
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK MOST PLACES. THAT BEING
SAID...THERE COULD BE SOME DRIFTING AND MELTING OF SNOW ON AREA
ROADWAYS...SO SOME SLICK SPOTS ARE LIKELY.

FOR TONIGHT...LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST...SO TEMPERATURES
WILL HINGE ON CLOUD COVER. EXPECT WIDE VARIABILITY...BUT OVERALL
LOWS SHOULD DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S.

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS JUST TO OUR NORTH ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA ON TUESDAY...KEEPING PRECIPITATION NORTH OF THE
BORDER AND THE FORECAST AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR. 850 HPA TEMPERATURES
SOAR TO +6 TO +8 C AS THE THERMAL RIDGE PASSES OVERHEAD. SNOWPACK
TEMPERATURE WILL BE CLOSER TO FREEZING COMPARED TO MONDAY...SO
HIGHS SHOULD BE ABLE TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW 40S IN SOME AREAS. DID
NOT DEVIATE FAR FROM GUIDANCE ALONG THE VALLEY FLOOR...BUT DID
INCREASE TEMPERATURES A HANDFUL OF DEGREES WEST OF THE VALLEY DUE
TO AN AFTERNOON WESTERLY WIND SHIFT AND ACROSS THE FORESTED AREAS
OF NORTHWEST AND WEST-CENTRAL MN.

A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE
IS LIMITED...BUT DID MAINTAIN AND ADJUST 20 POPS FOR LIGHT RAIN OR
SNOW...CHANGING OVER TO ALL SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS WILL DEPEND
ON TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT EXPECT A GRADIENT FROM THE LOW
TEENS ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER TO THE MID 20S ACROSS THE SOUTH.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE COOLER AND MOSTLY DRY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE 20S.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS START OUT IN FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT...WITH THE
NORTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE AREA AND OFF TO
THE EAST ON THURSDAY. THE END OF THE WORK WEEK LOOKS QUIET AND
WARMER AS ALL THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS HAVE 500MB HEIGHTS RISING
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH HOW TO
HANDLE THE CUT OFF LOW TO OUR SOUTH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE
GFS HAS THE SYSTEM MOVING OFF INTO MO SUNDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF
TRACKS IT WAY NORTH INTO SD AND BRINGS OUR CWA A LARGE AMOUNT OF
RAIN. THE GEM HAS A MORE SOUTHERN SOLUTION BUT WELL WEST OF THE
GFS. ENSEMBLES ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE...AND GIVEN MODEL
PERFORMANCE LATELY CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE SOLUTION IS LOW.
HOWEVER...SOME OF THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE IN AGREEMENT
WITH THE ECMWF AND THERE HAS BEEN SOME CONSISTENCY BETWEEN THE
CURRENT 00Z ECMWF AND THE 12Z RUN. ALLBLEND PUT SOME LOW POPS IN
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...AND WILL LEAVE THEM IN
FOR NOW.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
DK






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PORTLAND OR

 329 AM PST MON MAR  5 2012

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE DOWN THE WASHINGTON COAST
THIS MORNING AND REACH THE NORTH OREGON COAST BY MID MORNING. THE
FRONT WILL BRING MUCH COLDER AIR INTO THE AREA. WITH LOW SNOW LEVELS
JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE TEMPORALLY AFTER THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE...THEN MUCH COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN OVERNIGHT. SOME
SHOWERS WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT IN THE COLD AIR BEFORE NORTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT DRYS THINGS OUT TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WARMER WEATHER WILL RETURN
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES BUILDS BACK
OVER THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...KLGX RADAR IS JUST STARTING TO SHOW THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHING THE N WASHINGTON COAST AT 1030Z. THERE IS A BAND
OF MODERATE PRECIPITATION PROCEEDING THE FRONT ALL THE WAY DOWN TO
ASTORIA. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS HIGHER CLOUDS OUT AHEAD OF OF THE
FRONT PROVIDING SOME SEEDING FOR THE MODERATE PRECIPITATION. A LOWER
TOP CLOUD DECK IS SEEN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE KLGX RADAR SHOWING
PRECIPITATION CONTINUING BEHIND THE FRONT.

MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS FRONT.  THE
NEW HRRR MODEL SHOWS THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AT ASTORIA AROUND 16Z...WITH
A SHARP WIND SHIFT. PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE BEHIND THE SURFACE
FRONT WHICH MEANS THAT SNOW WILL BE FALLING INTO THE REGION OF COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE SNOW LEVELS TO BE
MUCH LOWER THAN WOULD OTHERWISE BE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY IF THE
PRECIPITATION IS HEAVY ENOUGH.15 YEARS AGO THE MODELS COULD NOT
HANDLE THIS SITUATION. HOWEVER...TODAYS HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS DO A
MUCH BETTER JOB WITH THE PHYSICS. THE NAM BUFR SOUNDING AT ASTORIA
SHOWS THIS QUITE NICELY WITH THE TEMPERATURE DROPPING DRAMATICALLY
BETWEEN 17Z AND 18Z AND THE FREEZING LEVEL DROPPING TO ABOUT 1100
FEET...SNOW LEVEL PROBABLY ABOUT 600 FEET...IN THE HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS ONLY LASTS FOR A SHORT TIME
WITH THE TEMPERATURE RISING BY 19Z-20Z AS THE FRONTAL PRECIPITATION
ENDS. IT IS LIKELY THAT THE WILLAPA HILLS AND THE NORTH OREGON
CASCADES WITH GET A BURST OF HEAVY SNOW AND GET A FEW INCHES  DURING
THE PERIOD AND AN INCH OR TWO OVERNIGHT IN SHOWERS SO I AM GOING TO
ISSUE A SNOW ADVISORY.

THE LOWER SNOW LEVEL WILL PROGRESS SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN OREGON DURING
THE DAY WITH THE FRONT BUT AS THE FRONT MOVES AWAY FROM THE SOURCE OF
COLD AIR THE EFFECT WILL NOT BE AS DRAMATIC. STILL EXPECT LOWER SNOW
LEVELS AS THE FRONT PASSES...THEN A BRIEF RISE IN SNOW LEVELS DURING
THE AFTERNOON UNTIL THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN OVERNIGHT. WESTERLY FLOW
AND LOWERING SNOW LEVELS WILL RESULT IN SNOW IN THE HIGHER FOOTHILLS
AND IN THE NORTH OREGON AND SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES.

MUCH COLDER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION DURING THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. BY 10 PM SNOW LEVELS IN THE NORTH WILL BE NEAR THE VALLEY
FLOOR...BUT THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW MUCH MOISTURE AND SHOWERS WILL
THERE BE.  THE 06Z NAM AND GFS BOTH SHOW A SHORT WAVE DROPPING DOWN
THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH OVER NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON FRONT 06Z TO 12Z.  THE MODELS SHOW LIMITED MOISTURE WITH
THIS SHORTWAVE WHICH COULD PRODUCE A DUSTING TO 1 INCH THE LOWLANDS.
MY CONCERN IS THAT THE AIR MASS IS SO COLD THAT IT IS PICKING UP
CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE OVER THE WATER. THIS CAN BE SEEN IN THE IR
IMAGERY WITH A GOOD ORGANIZED BAND OF SHOWERS OFF NORTHERN VANCOUVER
ISLAND EARLY THIS MORNING. THERE IS ABOUT A 40 PERCENT CHANCE THAT
MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW COULD OCCUR WITH THIS FEATURE...FOR NOW WILL GO
WITH THE 1 INCH AMOUNTS...WATCH HOW THE SHORTWAVE DEVELOPS THIS
EVENING AND BE PREPARED TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS IF NEEDED.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST QUICKLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL GET INTO THE MID 40S IN THE LOWLANDS DURING
THE AFTERNOON TUESDAY SO ANY SNOW THAT DOES FALL SHOULD MELT QUICKLY
DURING THE MORNING. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL SEE SOME BELOW FREEZING
TEMPERATURES IN THE DRYER AIR AND CLEARING SKIES.

MODELS ARE CONSISTENT ON BUILDING THE UPPER RIDGE WITH A GOOD WARMING
TREND WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY FOR A RETURN TO SPRING WEATHER.
SCHNEIDER

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...THE SECOND
HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK IS EXPECTED TO BE DOMINATED BY UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AND IS LOOKING QUITE NICE. WED SHOULD BE A BIT OF A
TRANSITION DAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN AND STRENGTHENS BEHIND A
DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE MODELS HANG ON TO SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM THE MON/TUE SYSTEM...SO IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE
SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG INTO WED MORNING. LATER WED...THE AIRMASS
SHOULD BEGIN TO DRY OUT AS AN OFFSHORE FLOW PATTERN BEGINS TO DEVELOP
AND HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN. THEN THU AND FRI LOOK TO
BE THE WARMEST DAYS OF THE YEAR UP TO THIS POINT. MODELS KEEP
MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW OVER THE REGION ON THU WITH 850 MB TEMPS IN
THE 8 TO 10 C RANGE. THIS SHOULD MAKE FOR A WARM AND SUNNY DAY. ON
FRI...CURRENT MODEL RUNS SHOW THE FLOW BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY.
SHOULD BE ANOTHER NICE WARM DAY...BUT WITH TEMPS A BIT COOLER AT THE
COAST DUE TO THE LOSS OF THE OFFSHORE FLOW. THE NICE RUN LOOKS TO END
AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND...WHERE THE MODELS TREND TOWARD
UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH A RETURN TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING. JFP

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR STRATUS PRETTY WIDESPREAD THIS MORNING IN
DEEPENING ONSHORE FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE
ONSHORE FLOW HAS BEEN A BIT SHALLOWER IN THE SOUTH WILLAMETTE
VALLEY WHICH HAS RESULTED IN AREAS OF IFR FOG INSTEAD OF STRATUS.
HOWEVER...THIS FOG WILL LIKELY LIFT INTO A STRATUS DECK THROUGH
THE MORNING. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONTAL ZONE SHOULD REACH
THE SOUTH WASHINGTON AND FAR NORTH OREGON COAST AROUND 13Z AND
WILL LIKELY DROP CONDITIONS THERE TO IFR BY 15Z IN HEAVIER
RAIN. INLAND AREAS WILL LIKELY STAY LOW-END MVFR FROM 12Z TO 16Z
THEN PREDOMINANT MVFR WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE. HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE
OUT AREAS OF IFR IN HEAVIER RAIN EVEN IN THE INTERIOR. COAST
RANGE MOUNTAINS AND WILLAPA HILLS WILL BE OBSCURED AFTER 15Z MON.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN IN THE AFTERNOON IN STRONG AND
UNSTABLE ONSHORE FLOW.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING
AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. THERE IS A 30 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE
THAT CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO AROUND FL010 BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z. RAIN
WILL REACH THE WESTERN APPROACHES AROUND 15Z...WITH CONTINUED MVFR
CONDITIONS. HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE 18Z TO 21Z. A MUCH COLDER AIR
MASS WILL MOVE IN THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A THREAT OF SNOW SHOWERS
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. SNOW ACCUMULATION IS NOT
ANTICIPATED AT THE TERMINAL.

&&

.MARINE...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY.
LATEST GUIDANCE BRINGS GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
WATERS JUST AHEAD AND WITH THE FRONT. WILL LEAVE THE SOUTHERN
WATERS IN AN ADVISORY FOR WIND AND SEAS FOR NOW. THERE COULD BE
SOME GUSTS TO 35 KT WITH THE FRONT...BUT NOT ENOUGH OR WIDESPREAD
ENOUGH TO HOIST A GALE. POST-FRONTAL NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD BE
SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL (20-25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT OR
SO) GIVEN THE IMPRESSIVE COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT. THE WIND
WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE
WATERS AND A LOW DEVELOPS TO THE SOUTH.

SEAS ARE NEAR 10 FT THIS MORNING...CLOSELY MATCHING THE 6-HR FORECAST
FROM THE LATEST GUIDANCE. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 11 TO 13 FT TODAY...
THEN NEAR 15 FT TUESDAY. SEAS WILL FALL BELOW 10 FT ONCE AGAIN BY
LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY MORNING.
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW IN THE NORTH OREGON COAST
     RANGE...NORTH OREGON CASCADES AND FOOTHILLS TODAY THROUGH
     TUESDAY MORNING.
WA...SNOW ADVISORY TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR THE WILLAPA
     HILLS...SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES AND FOOTHILLS
PZ...GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM

     CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 4 PM PST TUESDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM PST TUESDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH BAR UNTIL 6 AM PST TUESDAY FOR
     COLUMBIA RIVER BAR.

&&


$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LINCOLN IL

 219 PM CST MON MAR 5 2012

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 200 PM CST MON MAR 5 2012

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

A STRONG SOUTH WIND TO BRING UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER BACK TO
CENTRAL...EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT AWAY FROM CENTRAL IL TONIGHT
ALLOWING SOUTH WINDS TO INCREASE ACRS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR MORE OF AN EARLY EVENING LOW TEMPERATURE TO OCCUR BEFORE
READINGS BECOME STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT
UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL SETTLE INTO THE ROCKIES EARLY TUESDAY WITH
STRONG LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING HIGH TO OUR EAST
AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS LOW WILL PRODUCE STRONG SOUTH WINDS OVER MOST
OF THE FORECAST AREA. 850 TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RISE FROM THIS
MORNINGS READING OF -10C TO +8 DEGREES C BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH
SHOULD PUSH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 60 FAR EAST TO WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES OF 70 FAR WEST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST WE SHOULD BE
ABLE TO MIX DOWN FROM AROUND 4000 FEET WHERE WINDS ARE PROJECTED TO
BE IN THE 35 TO 45 MPH RANGE.

WINDS SHOULD DECREASE JUST A BIT TUESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY WITH
THE GUSTS...BEFORE RAMPING UP AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECTED TO INCREASE DURING
THE DAY WITH CLOUDS INCREASING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH DURING THE DAY...ESP
ACRS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. PRECIP CHANCES HAVE BEEN
PULLED BACK TO THE AFTERNOON...AND MOSTLY ACRS THE WEST AS IT APPEARS
THE BETTER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 700-500MB FORCING WILL BE ALONG
AND BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. OUR BEST CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS THE
FRONT SLOWLY DRIFTS SE ACRS THE FORECAST AREA. DUE TO THE PROXIMITY
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT...WILL CONTINUE
WITH RAIN CHANCES...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE SOUTH WHICH WILL
BE CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
NORTH OF I-72.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY
ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR A FEW DAYS BEFORE
WE TURN OUR ATTENTION TO THE CLOSED UPPER LOW ACRS THE SOUTHWEST U.S.

STILL SEEING SOME SPREAD WITH THE ENSEMBLES WITH RESPECT TO THE CLOSED
LOW ACRS THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE WEEKEND BUT NOT AS BAD AS WHAT WE
SAW OVER THE WEEKEND. MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE NE MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER
LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED PRECIP SHIELD AND WITH NO APPARENT UPSTREAM KICKER
IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM...FEEL THE SLOWEST SOLUTIONS DEPICTED BY THE
CANADIAN AND UK MODELS MAY BE THE WAY TO GO. IF THE UK MODEL IS CLOSER
TO THE TRUTH...WE WON`T SEE ANY RAIN IN HERE UNTIL LATER SUNDAY/MONDAY.
HOWEVER...WITH THE MODELS STILL SHOWING SOME INCONSISTENCIES WITH
RESPECT TO THE EJECTION OF THE UPPER WAVE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST U.S...WILL
HOLD OFF FROM MAKING ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES THIS FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD. ONE THING IS FOR SURE...THE UNSEASONABLY MILD WEATHER WILL PREVAIL
THRU THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
THE POLAR JET STREAM TO HOLD WELL TO OUR NORTH INTO AT LEAST THE MIDDLE
OF THE MONTH.

SMITH
&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1112 AM CST MON MAR 5 2012

DIURNAL CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT DROPPED CEILINGS AS LOW AS 900 FEET
EARLIER THIS MORNING AT KCMI...BUT RECENT OBSERVATIONS ARE MORE
AROUND 2000-2500 FEET. RUC CU-RULE GUIDANCE SHOWING SCATTERED
CLOUDS CONTINUING ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON...AND THESE SHOULD RISE INTO VFR RANGE THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON.

MAIN CONCERN AT THE TAF SITES IS WITH WINDS...BOTH SURFACE AND
ALOFT. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP THIS EVENING AS A STORM
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS. SHOULD SEE SURFACE GUSTS TO AROUND
20-25 KNOTS BY 06Z AT ALL SITES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL SHOWING
LLWS DEVELOPING AROUND 1500 FEET BY 06Z. FULL SUNSHINE ON TUESDAY
SHOULD MIX DOWN THESE HIGH WINDS EASILY...AND HAVE BROUGHT GUSTS
UP TO AROUND 30 KNOTS OR SO BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

GEELHART
&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LINCOLN IL

 1113 AM CST MON MAR 5 2012

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1012 AM CST MON MAR 5 2012

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN TIP OF KENTUCKY...
WITH RIDGING EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO WISCONSIN. STRIPE OF
SNOW FROM YESTERDAY...ABOUT 100 MILES WIDE...SHOWING UP NICELY ON
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. WITH SKIES CLEARING OUT EARLIER AND
COMBINED WITH THE FRESH SNOW COVER...TEMPERATURES PLUNGED SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW THE ORIGINAL FORECAST FOR MORNING LOWS...SO THE
TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING BEHIND THE HOURLY FORECAST FOR TODAY.
A NICE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN SETTING UP AFTER MIDDAY...AND
DAILY HIGHS MAY ACTUALLY OCCUR A BIT LATER THAN NORMAL...SO HAVE
NOT MADE MUCH CHANGE TO THE ACTUAL DAILY HIGHS. HAVE SENT SOME
UPDATED GRIDS TO REFLECT THESE CHANGES...AND WILL SEND A ZONE
UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.

GEELHART


&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1112 AM CST MON MAR 5 2012

DIURNAL CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT DROPPED CEILINGS AS LOW AS 900 FEET
EARLIER THIS MORNING AT KCMI...BUT RECENT OBSERVATIONS ARE MORE
AROUND 2000-2500 FEET. RUC CU-RULE GUIDANCE SHOWING SCATTERED
CLOUDS CONTINUING ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON...AND THESE SHOULD RISE INTO VFR RANGE THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON.

MAIN CONCERN AT THE TAF SITES IS WITH WINDS...BOTH SURFACE AND
ALOFT. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP THIS EVENING AS A STORM
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS. SHOULD SEE SURFACE GUSTS TO AROUND
20-25 KNOTS BY 06Z AT ALL SITES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL SHOWING
LLWS DEVELOPING AROUND 1500 FEET BY 06Z. FULL SUNSHINE ON TUESDAY
SHOULD MIX DOWN THESE HIGH WINDS EASILY...AND HAVE BROUGHT GUSTS
UP TO AROUND 30 KNOTS OR SO BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

GEELHART

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 317 AM CST MON MAR 5 2012

MUCH OF THE MIDWEST IN THE WAKE OF SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT IS EXITING TO THE EAST.
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DOMINATING MUCH OF THE MIDWEST WITH A TROF OVER
THE ERN CONUS...AND WEAK RIDGING OVER THE WEST. PATTERN ABOUT TO
SHIFT OVERALL...WITH RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE MIDWEST AND A GENERAL
WARMING TREND...PARTICULARLY KICKING IN IN THE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
FIRST ISSUE WILL BE WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM ON ITS WAY LATE WED/THRU
THURSDAY AS THE NEXT TROF DIGS IN OVER THE PAC WEST. MODELS STILL
HAVING A BIT OF A PROBLEM COMING TO A CONSENSUS ABOUT HANDLING THE
UPPER LOW AND THE PATTERN SHIFT. FOR THE LAST 24 HRS...ECMWF AND GFS
ARE STARTING TO COME AROUND...BUT MAJORITY OF THE DIFFERENCES WILL
MAKE AN IMPACT ON ILX WEATHER. KEEPING A CONSERVATIVE BLEND.

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TOMORROW...
STILL A BIT COOL TODAY...AND MORNING WARM UP MAY BE DELAYED A BIT
UNTIL THE SUNSHINE CAN HELP MELT THE 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW. TOMORROW
SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER AS LLVL SOUTHERLY WINDS AND RATHER AGGRESSIVE
WAA KICKS IN IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDY TUESDAY WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS IN THE 30 TO 35 MPH RANGE PUSHING PARTS OF ILX INTO WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA AS STUBBORN HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS ON OVER THE
ATLANTIC COAST AND ANOTHER WAVE DIVES INTO THE WEST. PREVIOUS
CONCERNS FOR FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ON TUESDAY WILL LIKELY BE MITIGATED
SOMEWHAT BY THE IMPACT OF THE WIDESPREAD QPF FROM THE CLIPPER
IMPACTING THE LLVL MOISTURE PROFILE FOR ILX. A BETTER PICTURE LIKELY
LATER THIS EVENING ONCE THE SNOW MELT AND MIXING FROM THE DAY
BECOMES CLEARER. AT ANY RATE...RH IS SOMETHING TO WATCH...AS THE
WINDS WILL MOST DEFINITELY BE AN ISSUE FOR TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
WEATHER WISE...FRONT/LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE MIDWEST LATE
WED AFTERNOON...WITH PLENTY OF WAA AHEAD OF IT...INSTABILITY WILL
LEND ITSELF TO THUNDER WITH THE STORMS THEMSELVES. SLIGHTLY COOLER
BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WORKING INTO THE CONUS
WILL MODERATE ANY DROP QUICKLY. AS FAR AS MODEL PERFORMANCE...A BIT
OF A MESS...THOUGH STARTING TO REPEAT THE SOLUTION OF A SPLIT FLOW
SITUATION SETTING UP MIDWEEK... EJECTING ONE SFC LOW AND A FRONT WED
EVENING/THU MORNING...AND HOLDING HALF OF THE WAVE BACK OVER THE
DESERT SW AND CUTTING OFF THE 500MB LOW TO PUSH OUT LATER IN THE
WEEKEND. 00Z RUN OF THE ECMWF NOT HANDLING THE SPLIT OF THE ENERGY
OVERALL VERY WELL...AND SPREADING A BIT OF CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK
THROUGH ITS QPF FIELDS. AS A RESULT...NOT HOLDING TOO TIGHTLY TO ITS
SOLUTION THIS RUN. SEEMS THE GFS IS ADJUSTING A BIT MORE TO THE
SPLIT...AND SLIGHTLY WEAKENING THE CUT OFF LOW...AS IT HAD SPLIT THE
FLOW A COUPLE SOLUTIONS AGO. EITHER WAY...NOT MAKING MASSIVE CHANGES
TO THE BLEND IN THE EXTENDED...BUT LIKE THE TREND OF THE GFS FOR
THIS RUN IN PARTICULAR AS THE ECMWF WORKS SOME KINKS OUT.

HJS


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LINCOLN IL

 1013 AM CST MON MAR 5 2012

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1012 AM CST MON MAR 5 2012

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN TIP OF KENTUCKY...
WITH RIDGING EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO WISCONSIN. STRIPE OF
SNOW FROM YESTERDAY...ABOUT 100 MILES WIDE...SHOWING UP NICELY ON
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. WITH SKIES CLEARING OUT EARLIER AND
COMBINED WITH THE FRESH SNOW COVER...TEMPERATURES PLUNGED SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW THE ORIGINAL FORECAST FOR MORNING LOWS...SO THE
TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING BEHIND THE HOURLY FORECAST FOR TODAY.
A NICE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN SETTING UP AFTER MIDDAY...AND
DAILY HIGHS MAY ACTUALLY OCCUR A BIT LATER THAN NORMAL...SO HAVE
NOT MADE MUCH CHANGE TO THE ACTUAL DAILY HIGHS. HAVE SENT SOME
UPDATED GRIDS TO REFLECT THESE CHANGES...AND WILL SEND A ZONE
UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.

GEELHART

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 515 AM CST MON MAR 5 2012

A FEW STRATOCU/STRATUS FRACTUS ARE DRIFTING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
AREA THIS MORNING...MAINLY AFFECTING CMI/DEC/BMI FOR THE FIRST
COUPLE OF HOURS. WINDS HAVE LIGHTENED UP AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES
FROM MO AND THIS HAS RESULTED IN SOME VISIBILITIES LOWER THAN
10SM...BUT DO NOT EXPECT ANY RESTRICTIONS BELOW VFR RANGE. QUIET
WEATHER ON TAP TODAY AS THE MO SURFACE HIGH MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN IL
AND ENDS UP NEAR THE APPALACHIANS BY 12Z TUE. LATEST RUC FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME STRATOCU REFORMATION LATE THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON MAINLY EAST. ANY BROKEN CEILINGS /MAINLY AFFECTING CMI/
SHOULD BE ABOVE 3K FT. RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL
STRENGTHEN SOUTH WINDS AFTER 00Z TUE...WITH 15-20 KTS COMMON ALONG
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DESPITE THE SOUTHERLY FLOW...NO SIGNIFICANT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN IS FORECAST UNTIL WELL AFTER THIS TAF PERIOD.

04

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 317 AM CST MON MAR 5 2012

MUCH OF THE MIDWEST IN THE WAKE OF SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT IS EXITING TO THE EAST.
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DOMINATING MUCH OF THE MIDWEST WITH A TROF OVER
THE ERN CONUS...AND WEAK RIDGING OVER THE WEST. PATTERN ABOUT TO
SHIFT OVERALL...WITH RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE MIDWEST AND A GENERAL
WARMING TREND...PARTICULARLY KICKING IN IN THE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
FIRST ISSUE WILL BE WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM ON ITS WAY LATE WED/THRU
THURSDAY AS THE NEXT TROF DIGS IN OVER THE PAC WEST. MODELS STILL
HAVING A BIT OF A PROBLEM COMING TO A CONSENSUS ABOUT HANDLING THE
UPPER LOW AND THE PATTERN SHIFT. FOR THE LAST 24 HRS...ECMWF AND GFS
ARE STARTING TO COME AROUND...BUT MAJORITY OF THE DIFFERENCES WILL
MAKE AN IMPACT ON ILX WEATHER. KEEPING A CONSERVATIVE BLEND.

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TOMORROW...
STILL A BIT COOL TODAY...AND MORNING WARM UP MAY BE DELAYED A BIT
UNTIL THE SUNSHINE CAN HELP MELT THE 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW. TOMORROW
SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER AS LLVL SOUTHERLY WINDS AND RATHER AGGRESSIVE
WAA KICKS IN IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDY TUESDAY WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS IN THE 30 TO 35 MPH RANGE PUSHING PARTS OF ILX INTO WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA AS STUBBORN HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS ON OVER THE
ATLANTIC COAST AND ANOTHER WAVE DIVES INTO THE WEST. PREVIOUS
CONCERNS FOR FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ON TUESDAY WILL LIKELY BE MITIGATED
SOMEWHAT BY THE IMPACT OF THE WIDESPREAD QPF FROM THE CLIPPER
IMPACTING THE LLVL MOISTURE PROFILE FOR ILX. A BETTER PICTURE LIKELY
LATER THIS EVENING ONCE THE SNOW MELT AND MIXING FROM THE DAY
BECOMES CLEARER. AT ANY RATE...RH IS SOMETHING TO WATCH...AS THE
WINDS WILL MOST DEFINITELY BE AN ISSUE FOR TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
WEATHER WISE...FRONT/LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE MIDWEST LATE
WED AFTERNOON...WITH PLENTY OF WAA AHEAD OF IT...INSTABILITY WILL
LEND ITSELF TO THUNDER WITH THE STORMS THEMSELVES. SLIGHTLY COOLER
BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WORKING INTO THE CONUS
WILL MODERATE ANY DROP QUICKLY. AS FAR AS MODEL PERFORMANCE...A BIT
OF A MESS...THOUGH STARTING TO REPEAT THE SOLUTION OF A SPLIT FLOW
SITUATION SETTING UP MIDWEEK... EJECTING ONE SFC LOW AND A FRONT WED
EVENING/THU MORNING...AND HOLDING HALF OF THE WAVE BACK OVER THE
DESERT SW AND CUTTING OFF THE 500MB LOW TO PUSH OUT LATER IN THE
WEEKEND. 00Z RUN OF THE ECMWF NOT HANDLING THE SPLIT OF THE ENERGY
OVERALL VERY WELL...AND SPREADING A BIT OF CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK
THROUGH ITS QPF FIELDS. AS A RESULT...NOT HOLDING TOO TIGHTLY TO ITS
SOLUTION THIS RUN. SEEMS THE GFS IS ADJUSTING A BIT MORE TO THE
SPLIT...AND SLIGHTLY WEAKENING THE CUT OFF LOW...AS IT HAD SPLIT THE
FLOW A COUPLE SOLUTIONS AGO. EITHER WAY...NOT MAKING MASSIVE CHANGES
TO THE BLEND IN THE EXTENDED...BUT LIKE THE TREND OF THE GFS FOR
THIS RUN IN PARTICULAR AS THE ECMWF WORKS SOME KINKS OUT.

HJS

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL

 1146 AM CST MON MAR 5 2012

.AVIATION...
AS FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN IA CLOUD TRENDS...LLVL RIDGE
AXIS AND DEVELOPING LLVL SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW KEEPING
THE LOW DECK AT BAY WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE CID AND DBQ
TERMINALS...AND THESE SITES SHOULD NOW JUST GET CLIPPED BY SOME
PASSING VFR LEVEL AC FROM THE NORTHWEST. REST OF THE TERMINALS
JUST WILL EXPERIENCE SOME FEW TO SCTRD CU DEVELOPMENT FROM 2-3K FT
AGL DEVELOPING OUT OF MELTING SNOW FIELDS. MID CLOUDS OVER THE
DAKOTAS STILL ON TRACK TO PROPAGATE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION LATER THIS AFTN AND INTO THE EVENING BEFORE MOVING OFF
AGAIN FOR MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. SFC WINDS TO REMAIN S/SE
AT 10-20 KTS OVERNIGHT IN TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. COULD SEE
SOME HIGHER GUSTS AT TIMES. SHORT RANGE MODEL FCST SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO SHOW 45-50 KTS OF WIND AT 1500-1800 FT AGL AFT 06Z AND
WILL KEEP THE LLWS ALREADY MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS TAF PACKAGE.
BRISK SOUTHERLY SFC WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25+ KTS BY END OF TAF
CYCLE TOMORROW.     ..12..

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 616 AM CST MON MAR 5 2012/

.UPDATE...
KEEPING AN EYE ON CLOUD TRENDS AND WILL UPDATE AS NEEDED. AXIS OF
LOW CLOUDS SLIDING EWD FROM CENTRAL IA WITH MORE WIDESPREAD AREA
OVER NORTHERN IA EXPANDING SEWD SOME PER SATL LOOP. THESE CLOUDS
LINE UP WELL WITH RUC 925-850 MB MOISTURE ADVECTION WHICH WEAKENS
WHILE MOVING INTO PORTIONS OF EASTERN IA THIS AM. COMBINATION OF
THIS AND SFC HEATING OVER FRESH SNOW COVER LIKELY TO FIRE SCT-BKN
ST/SC BY MID AM... AND LAST COUPLE OF RUNS OF HRRR CIG PRODUCT
DEPICTING THIS. BOTTOM LINE... SKY COVER MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED
AND THIS TO HAVE BIG RAMIFICATIONS ON HIGH TEMPS AND GROWING CONCERNS
TEMPS TOO WARM SOME AREAS GIVEN SINGLE DIGITS OVER PORTIONS OF
EASTERN IA FROM KIIB-KCID-KIOW-KAWG AND WESTWARD.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

 302 PM MST MON MAR 5 2012

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 214 PM MST MON MAR 5 2012

EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RUC H5 ANALYSIS SHOW WESTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. AT THE
SURFACE A LEE TROUGH HAS SHIFTED EAST TO BE NEAR THE COLORADO/KANSAS
STATE LINE.

THE TIGHTEST SURFACE GRADIENT REMAINS ALONG THE SE BORDER OF THE
CWA...WHERE THE WIND ADVISORY IS STILL IN EFFECT. WINDS HAVE JUST
STARTED TO REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA AT A FEW LOCATIONS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE AS DAYTIME MIXING COMES TO
AN END. LOCATIONS CLOSER TO THE TROUGH AXIS MAY SEE WINDS DIMINISH
SOONER. FOR NOW THE WIND ADVISORY AND RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE
ALLOWED TO CONTINUE THROUGH 00Z...THOUGH WESTERN COUNTIES MAY BE
ALLOWED TO END EARLIER.

OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE TRICKY TONIGHT WITH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH POSSIBLE
EAST AND WEST OF SURFACE TROUGH...WITH EXACT LOCATION OF TROUGH AXIS
STILL IN QUESTION. IN ADDITION TO WINDS POSSIBLY ALLOWING FOR BETTER
OVERNIGHT MIXING...WAA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH H85
TEMPS 14-17C. CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR LOW TO MID 30S AND UPPER
30S IN THE EAST NEAR HILL CITY. THIS STILL MAY BE TOO COOL
CONSIDERING THE AIRMASS ALOFT.

NEAR RECORD HIGHS ARE STILL FORECAST FOR TUESDAY WITH SW FLOW AND A
VERY WARM AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWA. WITH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES TODAY REACHING THE MID 70S AT WESTERN LOCATIONS...THERE
SHOULD BE NO PROBLEMS REACHING THE UPPER 70S ON TUESDAY WHEN H85
TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE ABOUT 5C WARMER THAN TODAY. MANY LOCATIONS
WILL PROBABLY REACH 80F. RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
TUESDAY WITH GUSTY WINDS VERY LOW RH VALUES EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE CWA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 PM MST MON MAR 5 2012


TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY A TROUGH OF DIGS INTO THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES AND FORMS A CLOSED LOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE
4-CORNERS REGION. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM AND THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA IS SEEMINGLY SPLIT INTO
TWO PARTS...WITH THE LEADING PORTION DEEPENING IN THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES AND MOVING SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THE TRAILING PORTION DEEPENING IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER LOW CENTER NEAR THE 4-CORNERS AREA. A COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEAD LOW PUSHES THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AND KEEPS HIGH TEMPERATURES 30
DEGREES COOLER OR MORE FROM TUESDAY/S HIGHS. VERY LITTLE IF ANY
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONT AS IT SWEEPS THROUGH THE
REGION AS THE AIRMASS STILL REMAINS RELATIVELY DRY ALOFT AND THE
MAIN DYNAMICS WITH THE UPPER LOW CENTER ARE STILL OFF TO THE WEST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BRING THE POSSIBILITY
OF A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION AS THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE
UPPER PATTERN SWEEPS A TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE
UPPER LOW NEAR THE 4-CORNERS REGION CUTS OFF AND DRIFTS SLOWLY
OVER NEW MEXICO. THE SURFACE AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE CONSOLIDATES
INTO A SINGLE LOW IN THE VICINITY OF FAR WESTERN TEXAS ON THURSDAY
AND BEGINS TO ELONGATE ALONG THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STRETCHING FROM WESTERN TEXAS INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
REGION. THE BEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALONG THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH DIMINISHING CHANCES THE FURTHER NORTH ONE
TRAVELS AWAY FROM THE BOUNDARY. HAVE PLACED A MIX OF MAINLY LIGHT
RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH GREATER PRECIPITATION
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS.

THE CUT OFF UPPER LOW LINGERS OVER NEW MEXICO FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT AND THEN BEGINS TO LIFT OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS ON SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. MODEL SOLUTIONS OFFER A
VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS OF NOW AND WHEN THE UPPER LOW EVENTUALLY
TRACKS EAST OF THE ROCKIES...SO CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE SOLUTION IS
MINIMAL AT THIS TIME. HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND RAIN
AND SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THIS TIME WITH A GENERAL RETURN OF TEMPERATURES TO
NEAR NORMAL.

WITH A SHORT WAVE RIDGE MOVING OVER THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE
UPPER LOW LIFTING THROUGH...HAVE KEPT THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK
DRY WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1015 AM MST MON MAR 5 2012

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD. TIGHT SURFACE
GRADIENT AHEAD OF LEE TROUGH IN EASTERN COLORADO HAS LEAD TO
GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH AT BOTH MCK AND GLD THIS MORNING...WHICH MAY
LINGER INTO THE EARLY TAF PERIOD. AS THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS
SHIFTS EAST WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH SOME...WITH GUSTY CONDITIONS
COMING TO AN END AROUND SUNSET. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH
INITIALLY VEERING TO THE SOUTHWEST AND THEN WEST BEHIND THE TROUGH
AXIS. LEE TROUGH REDEVELOPS AND STRENGTHENS ON TUESDAY...WITH
WINDS SHIFTING BACK TO THE SOUTH. FOR NOW IT LOOKS LIKE GUSTY
WINDS WILL RE-DEVELOP AFTER THE END OF THE CURRENT VALID PERIOD
(18Z TUESDAY).

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 1239 AM MST MON MAR 5 2012

MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL CREATE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY ALONG AND EAST
OF A TRIBUNE TO NORTON LINE IN NORTHWEST KANSAS DURING THE LATE
MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY IN MUCH OF THE AREA AS WINDY AND WARM
CONDITIONS CONTINUE.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
     FOR COZ252>254.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ253-254.

KS...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
     FOR KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     KSZ003-004-013>016-027>029-041-042.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     KSZ003-004-014>016-027>029-041-042.

NE...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
     FOR NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DR
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM....LOCKHART
AVIATION...DR







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC

 101 PM EST MON MAR 5 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE RAPIDLY EAST ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA
TODAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TUESDAY
AND THEN MOVE OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 100 PM MON...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS INTACT THROUGH THE REST
OF THE AFTERNOON. OCNL GUSTS TO 45 KT ACROSS OBX AND DOWNEAST
CARTERET...WITH GUSTS NEARING 40 KT SOME AREAS INLAND. 3 HR PRES
RISES OF 4 MB THROUGH MID AFTERNOON PER LATEST RUC GUIDANCE
INDICATE GUSTY WINDS WILL PERIST THRUOGH THIS TIME PERIOD...BEFORE
ABATING IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH QUITE RAPIDLY
TOWARDS SUNSET AS GRADIENT RELAXES AND LOSS OF SOLAR INSOLATION.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
AS OF 335 AM MON...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST ACROSS EASTERN NC
TONIGHT WITH WINDS VEERING NORTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY NORTH. TEMPS
WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S INLAND TO LOWER 30S ALONG THE
COAST...WITH MID 30S ALONG THE OBX. OVERALL DRY AIRMASS AND LIGHT
NORTHERLY FLOW SHOULD INHIBIT FOG DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER STRONG
SURFACE BASED INVERSION WILL DEVELOP WHICH MAY DECOUPLE WINDS LONG
ENOUGH FOR SOME SHALLOW/BRIEF DITCH FOG TO FORM ESPECIALLY GIVEN
THE RECENT RAINS/SATURATED SOILS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FCST DURING
PERIOD WITH DECENT MODEL CONSISTENCY AND CONTINUITY INDICATED. COOL
SFC HIGH PRES WILL PRODUCE FAIR SKIES BUT BELOW NORMAL TEMPS TUE AND
TUE NIGHT...THEN RIDGING ALOFT WITH SFC HIGH EXTENDING OVER AREA
FROM OFFSHORE WILL PRODUCE MODERATING TEMPS WITH READING 10-15 DEGS
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THU-FRI. WILL SEE SOME INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER WITH
RETURN SRLY FLOW STARTING ON WED...BUT PCPN THREAT WILL HOLD OFF
UNTIL FRONTAL BNDRY PUSHES IN FRI-SAT.

SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH LATEST GFS AND ECMWF WITH
HANDLING OF UPR LOW CUTTING OFF OVER SW US...BUT BOTH INDICATE NRN
STREAM SYSTEM WILL PUSH FRONT THROUGH AREA LATE FRI INTO EARLY SAT.
THIS IS IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS FCST THINKING ON POPS.

MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS FOR WED-FRI BASED ON LATEST GDNC. MAX
TEMPS INTO MID 70S FRIDAY FOR INLAND SECTIONS AHEAD OF FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1 PM MONDAY...BIG STORY FOR THE TAF CYCLE WILL BE THE GUSTY
WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY. TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WITH
DEPARTING LOW AND EFFICIENT MIXING FROM ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS
TO GUST TO ABOVE 30 KT. BKN TO SCT 8K FT DECK WILL LINGER UNTIL
SUNSET...BEFORE CLEARING THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. WINDS WILL ALSO DIMINISH RAPIDLY BY SUNSET...BECOMING
LIGHT OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHEAST GENERALLY BELOW
10 KTS FOR TUE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS A
LARGE AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM INFLUENCES THE WEATHER.
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT COULD LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY AND SUB VFR CONDITIONS LATE FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 900 AM MON...ADDED PAMLICO SOUND TO GALE WARNING...AS
FURTHER NORTH LOW TRACK WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER GRADIENT SOUTHWEST WINDS
TO AFFECT THE SOUND. WINDS AND WAVES HIGHEST ACROSS EASTERN
PORTIONS OF PAMLICO.

AS OF 345 AM SUN...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH SEAS 4 TO 7 FT FROM DUCK
SOUTH TO OFF ONSLOW BAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING
ASSOCIATED WITH A CLIPPER LOW WHICH WILL CROSS THE WATERS BETWEEN
15-21Z. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL WATERS...BEFORE VEERING NORTHWEST AND SLOWLY DIMINISHING
LATE THIS EVENING. GALE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REPLACED BY AN
SCA AFTER THE 00Z EXP TIME. ADDED ALBEMARLE SOUND TO SCA GIVEN
EASTERN PORTIONS WILL LIKELY SEE FREQUENT GUSTS ABOVE 25 KNOTS AS
THE LOW CROSSES. WINDS WILL VEER NORTHWEST BEHIND THE LOW LATE
TODAY...THEN SHIFT NORTHERLY NEAR SUNRISE. WAVES WILL PEAK 8-11 FT
THIS AFTERNOON...THEN SUBSIDE 6-9 FT THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE
FALLING OUT TO 5-7 FT OVERNIGHT. SWAN AND WAVEWATCH III WERE IN
FAIRLY CLOSE AGREEMENT FOR THE SHORT TERM.

/LONG TERM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM MONDAY...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW SCA
CRITERIA BY TUE AFTN AS LARGE HIGH PRES CENTER BUILDS OVER AREA.
HIGH WILL THEN EXTEND OVER AREA FROM OFFSHORE THROUGH END OF WEEK
WITH  WINDS GRADUALLY VEERING BACK TO SRLY DURING PERIOD. SPEEDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 KTS UNTIL FRIDAY WHEN PRES GRAD WILL TIGHTEN
AHEAD OF NEXT FRONT.

NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FCST SEAS DURING PERIOD. HEIGHTS WILL
GRADUALLY FALL TO 3 FT OR LESS BY TUE EVENING. SOME INCREASE TO 3-4
FT EXPECTED SRN WATERS WITH RETURN SRLY FLOW THU...THEN 4-5 FT
FRIDAY WITH INCREASING WINDS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NCZ029-044>047-
     079>081-090>094-098.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NCZ095-103-104.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ135-152-154-
     156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR AMZ130.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...TL
SHORT TERM...DAG
LONG TERM...JBM
AVIATION...TL/JBM
MARINE...TL/DAG/JBM