Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 03/01/12
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER CO
925 PM MST MON FEB 27 2012
.UPDATE...LOOKING AT SOME OF THE 00Z MODELS BELIEVE THERE IS LESS OF
A CHANCE THE PLAINS WILL SEE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TOMORROW.
ALSO...LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER AND WILL
INTRODUCE RAIN MIXING WITH SNOW ON THE PLAINS TOMORROW AS WELL AS
BUMPED UP MAX TEMPERATURES.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 551 PM MST MON FEB 27 2012/
SHORT TERM...HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TONIGHT PERIOD OF THE
FORECAST. GIVEN OBSERVATIONS...HAVE BACKED OFF ON CHANCES OF SNOW IN
THE MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING AS THE STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW IS NOT
CONDUCIVE TO MUCH SHOWER ACTIVITY IN OUR MOUNTAINS. HAVE ALSO
ADJUSTED SKY COVER TO MOSTLY CLEAR OVER THE PLAINS EARLY THIS
EVENING THEN INCREASE THE CLOUDS GIVEN THE STRATUS DEVELOPING ACROSS
FAR SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS. CHANCES OF ANY PRECIP
LOOK VERY LOW OVER EASTERN COLORADO WITH MAINLY DRY AIRMASS IN THE
MID AND UPPER LEVELS. HAVE REMOVED MOST OF THE POPS. ALSO BUMPED UP
WIND SPEEDS FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE TROF SWEEPS ACROSS NORTHERN
COLORADO.
.AVIATION...MAIN CHANGE TO 00Z TAFS WAS TO INCREASE THE WESTERLY
WINDS FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS MODELS AGAIN SEEM TO BE UNDERDOING
WIND SPEEDS. LATEST HRRR SHOWS DEN CYCLONE THRU THE NIGHT WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW LATER TONIGHT WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG/STRATUS OVER THE TERMINALS. STILL A CLOSE CALL
AND MAYBE A BETTER CHANCE AT BJC. LEFT THE VCFG AT KDEN BUT GIVEN
CYCLONE WE MAY GET MORE FOG THAN FORECAST. WILL LIKELY MAKE MORE
ADJUSTMENTS THIS EVENING. NOT VERY CONFIDENT ON PRECIP OCCURRING AT
LOCAL TERMINALS BUT DID LEAVE A VCSH IN FOR NOW.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 PM MST MON FEB 27 2012/
SHORT TERM...UPPER TROUGH HEADING TOWARDS THE GREAT BASIN AT THIS
TIME WITH FAIRLY TIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION. AT
THE SURFACE...GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUING ACROSS THE
PLAINS MAINLY FROM DENVER EASTWARD. MODELS STILL PERSISTENT WITH
WEAKENING THAT GRADIENT DURING THE EVENING...WITH SURFACE WINDS
DECREASING A RESULT. WILL CONTINUE THIS TREND. SATELLITE SHOWING
MOISTURE CONTINUING TO SPREAD INTO WESTERN COLORADO...WITH RADAR
SHOWING SOME ECHOES ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. NOT A LOT
CURRENTLY HAPPENING OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...
PERHAPS A FEW ECHOES ACROSS ZONE 31. AS TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
GREAT BASIN THIS EVENING...SHOULD SEE MOISTURE INCREASE AND SNOW
SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT NOT FAVORABLE FOR
GOOD SNOWFALL AND ACCUMULATIONS...BUT WITH INCREASING ASCENT AND
LAPSE RATES...LIKELY POPS SEEM WARRANTED WITH THE HIGHEST POPS FOR
FAVORED ZONE 31. SNOW AMOUNTS TO BE IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE.
ACROSS PLAINS....SURFACE WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHWEST DURING THE
EVENING AS THE SOUTHWEST GRADIENT INCREASES. MOISTURE TO INCREASE
ACROSS THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT. LOW LEVELS SLOWING MOISTEN OVERNIGHT
AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADS NORTHWEST. QUESTION REMAINS HOW MUCH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAKES IT TO THE FOOTHILLS. LATEST RUC AS WELL
AS THE HI RESOLUTION MODELS BRING THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO
EASTERN ADAMS AND EASTERN ARAPAHOE COUNTIES AROUND 10Z...ENOUGH
PERHAPS FOR PATCHY FOG. THIS ALREADY IN THE GRIDS. PRECIP CHANCES
LOW OVERNIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS ZONE 38 WHERE SOME
BANDED PRECIP IS POSSIBLE. MAY BE A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR A FEW HOURS.
ON TUESDAY...THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH
THE BEST DYNAMICS OCCURRING DURING THE MORNING. OROGRAPHICS
IMPROVE DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT LIFT IS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND
MOISTURE DEPTH DECREASES. STILL A DECENT SHOT OF SNOW EXPECTED FOR
THE MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE MORNING HOURS...WITH ANOTHER 2
TO 5 INCHES. ACROSS PLAINS...BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW LOOKS TO BE
DURING THE MORNING WHEN THE DYNAMICS MOVES OVERHEAD. BUT DOWNSLOPE
WINDS WILL OFFSET THE SNOW POTENTIAL. SO ANY ACCUMULATION SHOULD
BE LESS THAN AN INCH....MAINLY ACROSS ZONE 38. SNOW CHANCES
DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND DOWNSLOPE INCREASES. LATEST MODELS STILL SHOW SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATION ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST CORNER DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS THERE...BUT AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT. AS FOR PRECIP TYPE...THICKNESS PROGS SUGGEST ALL SNOW.
LONG TERM...A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WILL BRING A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO COLORADO TUESDAY NIGHT.
AS THIS SYSTEM EXITS THE REGION...MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL COME TO AN END
DURING THE NIGHT. A STABLE LAYER WILL FORM JUST ABOVE RIDGE TOP AND
CREATE A MOUNTAIN WAVE. WINDS AT RIDGE TOP WILL BE AROUND 50 KNOTS.
THE WAVE WILL ACCELERATE THESE WINDS DOWN THE FOOTHILLS RESULTING IN
WIND GUSTS UP TO 80 MPH. WILL ISSUE A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE
FOOTHILLS AND AREAS AT THE BASE OF THE FOOTHILLS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THE WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIE OFF WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
QUICKLY PASSES OVER THE STATE. THIS WILL BRING MILD AND DRY
CONDITIONS TO NORTHEAST COLORADO.
NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL DIG SOUTH ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
NORTHERN ROCKIES THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING ANOTHER
SHOT OF SNOW TO THE MOUNTAINS...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH SOUTH ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO THURSDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME
NORTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT...PRODUCING AN UPSLOPE FLOW. WILL HAVE
SCATTERED POPS IN THE FORECAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE AREA WILL BE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM ON FRIDAY.
AIRMASS WILL BE SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE AND WILL KEEP LOW POPS FOR
NORTHEAST COLORADO IN THE FORECAST. FOR THE MOUNTAINS...THE SLIGHTLY
UNSTABLE FLOW OVER THE MOUNTAINS WILL PRODUCE SNOW SHOWERS...THUS
WILL HAVE HIGHER POPS OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE ALONG THE WEST COAST SATURDAY. THIS WILL
PRODUCE A DRY AND MILD NORTHWEST FLOW OVER COLORADO. THE RIDGE WILL
SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS DRY
CONDITIONS CONTINUE. ON MONDAY...SOME 60S WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
NORTHEAST COLORADO.
AVIATION..STRONG SOUTHERLY GRADIENT TO SLOWLY WEAKEN ACROSS
PLAINS THIS EVENING...WITH WINDS DECREASING AT DEN AND APA. WINDS
TO BECOME SOUTHWEST AT ALL THE AREA AIRPORTS BY 05Z AS SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT INCREASES. MOISTURE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS
EVENING...WITH CEILINGS OF 5000-6000 FEET AGL PREVAILING. CHANCE
FOR MVFR CEILINGS AT DEN AND APA AFTER 07Z IF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES FROM THE SOUTHEAST. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AFTER
06Z...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH RAIN. BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW TUESDAY
MORNING...AS TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD. VFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL...WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS WITH PASSING SNOW
SHOWERS. WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AFTER 16Z...CONTINUING
THROUGH THE DAY WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR COZ035-036-038-039.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM....MEIER
AVIATION...ENTREKIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
944 PM EST WED FEB 29 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SNOW...SLEET...FREEZING
RAIN...AND PLAIN RAIN...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR ON THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION
NORTHWARD...AS THE COMPLEX DOUBLE BARREL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY
MOVES EAST OF NEW ENGLAND BY THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 944 PM EST...AS EXPECTED...A LULL HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
AREA...AS THE BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT HAS PUSHED OFF THE EAST...AND
WE AWAIT OUR NEXT SHOT OF PRECIP DUE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
COASTAL LOW OFF THE JERSEY SHORE. HAVE LOWERED POPS FOR THE NEXT
FEW HOURS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. WHILE LITTLE ORGANIZED PRECIP
WILL OCCUR THROUGH MIDNIGHT OR SO...SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE OR MIST
MAY OCCUR. THERE WILL BE BASICALLY NO ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...IR SATELLITE SHOWS PLENTY OF COLD CLOUD TOPS
APPROACHING OUR AREA...SO THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF ICE ALOFT TO
SEED LOWER CLOUDS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW CRYSTALS ONCE THE
SECONDARY LOW REALLY STARTS OF TAKE OFF FOR AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE
LATEST 23Z RUN OF THE 3KM HRRR SUPPORTS THIS IDEA...AND THE 00 UTC
NAM SUGGESTS THIS AS WELL. AFTER ABOUT 06Z-07Z...PRECIP SHOULD
REALLY START TO BLOSSOM OVER SOUTHERN AREAS AND SPREAD NORTHWARD.
THE WARM NOSE SHOULD HAVE REACHED ITS NORTHERN EXTENT BY THE
MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT AND START RETREATING SOUTHWARD. AREAS NORTH OF
THE CAPITAL REGION SHOULD BE MAINLY SNOW...WHILE A MIX OF
-SN/-FZRA/-PL WILL OCCUR TO THE SOUTH...WITH RAIN FOR THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY. THE CAPITAL REGION
ITSELF WILL BE ON THE BORDER...AND SHOULD STAY MAINLY
SNOW...ALTHOUGH CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A LITTLE BIT OF
SLEET...ESP AT THE ONSET OF THE PRECIP. THERE CERTAINLY CAN BE
SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIP FOR A FEW HOURS IN THERE LATE
TONIGHT...AND WE STILL APPEAR ON TRACK WITH OUR SNOWFALL
ACCUMS...SO NO MAJOR CHANGES TO OUR HEADLINES/SNOW TOTAL GRAPHIC.
BY SUNRISE...SEVERAL MORE INCHES SHOULD HAVE
ACCUMULATED...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS FROM THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY
EASTWARD INTO THE HELDERBERGS...CAPITAL REGION...AND NORTHERN
BERKSHIRES.
SFC TEMPS WILL NOT MOVE MUCH OVERNIGHT...WITH POSSIBLE SLIGHT
GRADUAL WARMING BY A FEW DEGREES...BUT TEMPS GENERALLY STAYING
NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS...AND
AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE FOR SOUTHERN AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
BY THURSDAY MORNING...THE SECONDARY LOW WILL BE MOVING OFFSHORE
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND...WHILE THE CLOSED PRIMARY/UPPER LOW WILL BE ON
OUR DOORSTEP...CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES. LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW
WILL PERSIST OVER THE MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH
MOISTURE FETCH OFF THE ATLANTIC CONTINUING.
ANY MIXED PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO MORE OF A RAIN/SNOW REGIME
DUE TO MID LEVEL COOLING SUBSTANTIALLY AS UPPER TROF/CLOSED LOW
MOVES OVERHEAD. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS TRENDED TOWARD A MORE SOUTHERLY
TRACK FOR THE UPPER LOW...WHICH TAKES THE CENTER RIGHT OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. QG LIFT FROM CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION
WILL BE QUITE PRONOUNCED FROM AROUND MID MORNING THURSDAY THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPS PROFILES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH RAIN/SNOW MIX IN VALLEY LOCATIONS SOUTH OF
THE CAPITAL REGION. SO ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS ACROSS THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS
AND SOUTHERN VERMONT/NORTHERN BERKSHIRES.
WITH MORE SNOW NOW EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY DUE TO THE MORE SOUTHERLY
TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW...STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN
RAISED ACROSS THE NORTHERN 2/3 OF THE AREA. NOW EXPECTING STORM
TOTALS OF 5-12" FOR THE EASTERN CATSKILLS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
CAPITAL REGION AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL TACONICS AND UPPER HUDSON
VALLEY. HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 8-16" EXPECTED FOR THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN VERMONT AND BERKSHIRES. STORM TOTAL SNOW
GRAPHICS HAVE BEEN POSTED TO OUR WEBSITE.
SNOW SHOULD GRADUALLY TAPER OFF THURSDAY EVENING AS THE PRIMARY LOW
PULLS AWAY AND WEAK RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS IN.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A RATHER TRANQUIL END TO THE WEEK AS THE MID WEEK STORM DEPARTS WELL
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND THE NEXT STORM DEVELOPING OVER THE MID
MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND OHIO VALLEYS.
A STRONG SURGE OF WARM ADVECTION IS FORECAST TO QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL
ALSO INCREASE RATHER QUICKLY WITH THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS FOR
MOST OF THE REGION ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE FREEZING.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE LOCATIONS WITH AT OR BELOW FREEZING
TEMPERATURES WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR EITHER SLEET OR A LITTLE
FREEZING RAIN. WARMER AIR WILL EVENTUALLY ERODE THE COLDER SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WITH MAINLY RAIN EXPECTED LATE AT NIGHT AND INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. IN FACT...THE LOW LEVEL JET MAGNITUDES INCREASE
TO VALUES GREATER THAN 50KTS. WHILE THIS LATEST NCEP MODEL SUITE
SHOWALTER VALUES ARE A BIT MORE POSITIVE...WE CAN NOT TOTALLY RULE
OUT A CLAP OF THUNDER WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR AND AHEAD OF THE FROPA.
AS FOR THE TIMING OF THE FROPA...SEEMS THIS WILL OCCUR BEFORE NOON
SATURDAY. WITH 850MB TEMPS PROGGED TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE HIGH
SINGLE DIGITS...VALLEY TEMPERATURES COULD CLIMB WELL INTO THE 40S
WITH SOME LOWER 50S POSSIBLE FOR THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
LITCHFIELD COUNTY.
A REGION OF SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR ARE EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO THE START OF SUNDAY AS MAIN FRONT WAS OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST
AND MAIN UPPER TROF AXIS REMAINS OVER THE HEART OF THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THIS AFOREMENTIONED TROF AXIS IS EXPECTED TO MIGRATE EAST
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW AND
MOISTURE FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RA/SN SHOWER ACTIVITY.
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...LARGE CONSENSUS THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL
EXPAND ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WITH CLEARING SKIES AND TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IFR CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING AT ALL TERMINALS SO FAR EARLY
THIS EVENING. A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. THERE WILL BE ON AND OFF PERIODS OF SNOW AT
KGFL...MAINLY SNOW WITH PERHAPS SOME SLEET AT KALB...AND RAIN FOR
KPOU...BUT WIDESPREAD STEADY PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN AT LEAST MVFR OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS DUE TO FOG/MIST...AND SOME IFR IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
ANY OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF PRECIP. THE BEST CHC FOR PRECIP WILL BE
FOR THE NORTHERN TWO TERMINALS...BUT AMOUNTS WILL BE LIMITED THROUGH
THE LATE EVENING HOURS.
AFTER MIDNIGHT...ANOTHER ROUND OF STEADY MODERATE PRECIP WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION. KALB/KGFL WILL BE SNOW...WITH RAIN FOR KPOU. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER LONG DURATION PERIOD OF IFR/LIFR CIGS FOR THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS...WITH IFR AT KPOU. THIS PRECIP WILL CONTINUE
RIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF ACCUMULATION FOR
BOTH KALB AND KGFL. A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE TO RETURN TO
KPOU DURING THE MORNING...BUT PRECIP SHOULD GENERALLY BE JUST RAIN
THERE.
BY EARLY AFTERNOON...THE PRECIP WILL BECOME MORE SHOWERY IN NATURE.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AN IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS/VSBYS...WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS TO PREDOMINATE UNTIL CONDITIONS IMPROVE BY THE EVENING
HOURS.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH CALM OR NORTHERLY
WINDS OR 6 KTS OR LESS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT...IMPROVING TO VFR. CHC -SHSN IN THE EVNG.
FRI...VFR. NO SIG WX.
FRI NIGHT-SAT...MVFR/IFR. RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY.
SAT NIGHT-MON...VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS ON THE MAIN STEM
RIVERS. SOME HYDRO GAGES ARE STILL BEING IMPACTED BY ICE FROM THE
MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY NORTHWARD INTO THE ADIRONDACKS.
A HEAVY PRECIPITATION EVENT IS ONGOING AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH TOTAL QPF AROUND AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A QUARTER.
THERE COULD BE SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. A LARGE PORTION OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS SNOW AND SLEET...MIXING WITH SOME RAIN OR
FREEZING RAIN ESPECIALLY ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION.
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION...SO NOT MUCH RIVER RESPONSE IS ANTICIPATED EXCEPT FOR SOME
MINOR RISES ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE SOME OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL
AS RAIN AND THERE WILL SLIGHT RUNOFF.
DRY WEATHER WILL BRIEFLY RETURN ON FRIDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM
BRINGS A ROUND OF RAIN AND MIXED PRECIP TO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. THERE COULD BE SOME DECENT SNOW MELT AS TEMPERATURES
SOAR ABOVE NORMAL...BUT THERE IS ONLY A NARROW WINDOW FOR WARMER
TEMPERATURES AS IT IS UNCLEAR HOW MUCH MELT/RUNOFF WOULD OCCUR.
PRECIP AMOUNTS AROUND ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH ARE EXPECTED.
COMBINED WITH THE SNOW MELT...THERE WILL LIKELY BE RISES ON RIVERS
BUT FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.CLIMATE...
AS OF 7 PM...3.8 INCHES OF SNOW HAS BEEN REPORTED AT THE ALBANY
INTERNATINAL AIRPORT.
LEAST SNOWIEST DEC-JAN-FEB FOR ALBANY NY
YEARS OF RECORD: 1884-2012
1) 10.9 INCHES 1936-37
2) 11.7 INCHES 1912-13
3) 12.6 INCHES 2011-12 (THROUGH 7 PM FEB 29TH)
4) 13.8 INCHES 1911-12
5) 14.2 INCHES 1988-89
6) 16.3 INCHES 1931-32
7) 16.6 INCHES 1979-80
8) 17.0 INCHES 1954-55
9) 17.1 INCHES 1918-19
17.1 INCHES 1889-90
10) 17.3 INCHES 1910-11
LEAST SNOWIEST SEASONS FOR ALBANY NY
YEARS OF RECORD: 1884-2012
1) 13.8 INCHES 1912-13
2) 18.0 INCHES 2011-12 (THROUGH 7 PM FEB 29TH)
3) 19.0 INCHES 1988-89
4) 24.8 INCHES 1929-30
5) 26.7 INCHES 1918-19
6) 27.4 INCHES 1979-80
7) 28.1 INCHES 1889-90
8) 28.4 INCHES 1936-37
9) 28.7 INCHES 1990-91
28.7 INCHES 1914-15
11) 28.9 INCHES 1896-97
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR CTZ001.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST THURSDAY FOR CTZ013.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ032-033-
038>043-047>054-058>061-063-082>084.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ064>066.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR VTZ013>015.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/JPV
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...JPV/WASULA
CLIMATE...IAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
641 PM EST WED FEB 29 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS PASSING NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE
REGION WILL BRING PERIODS OF ACCUMULATING SNOW AND MIXED
PRECIPITATION INTO THURSDAY. FAST MOVING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
DRY WEATHER ON FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL WEST OF THE
REGION...RESULTING IN RAINY AND MILD WEATHER WITH BLUSTERY WINDS
SATURDAY. COOLER...DRY WEATHER WILL FOLLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AREA OF MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY SNOW MOVING ACROSS SNE THIS
AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY BRING 2-4" OVER MUCH OF THE INTERIOR THROUGH
00Z. HRRR REFLECTIVITY DOING A PRETTY GOOD JOB WITH CURRENT AREA
OF PRECIP AND CONFINES HEAVIEST SNOWFALL MOSTLY ALONG AND S OF THE
MASS PIKE THROUGH 00Z.
THIS AREA OF SNOWFALL IS ASSOCD WITH THE INITIAL SURGE OF
ISENTROPIC LIFT WHICH WILL BE EXITING EARLY THIS EVENING AS PSEUDO
DRY SLOT TEMPORARILY MOVES IN. THIS WILL RESULT IN PRECIP
INTENSITY DIMINISHING FOR A TIME THIS EVENING. ALSO...MID LEVEL
WARMING MOVING UP FROM THE SW WILL RESULT IN A CHANGEOVER TO
SLEET/FZRA IN THE INTERIOR MAINLY S OF THE PIKE AND TO MAINLY
RAIN ALONG THE S COAST THROUGH THIS EVENING.
NEXT PULSE OF PRECIP MOVES IN FROM THE SW AFTER 06Z AS SFC WAVE
TRACKS S OF NEW ENGLAND. DEVELOPING EASTERLY LLJ ENHANCES THE LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND INCREASES OMEGA. WE DISCOUNTED THE WARMER
GFS SOLUTION WHICH HAS STRUGGLED WITH THE THERMAL PROFILE...SO
USED NAM/ECMWF BLEND FOR THIS FORECAST.
PTYPE WITH THIS NEXT BATCH OF PRECIP SHOULD BE PRIMARILY SNOW N
OF THE PIKE WITH SOME MIXING WITH SLEET AT TIMES NEAR THE
PIKE...AND COULD MIX WITH RAIN ALONG IMMEDIATE E MA COASTLINE
INCLUDING BOS. THE MORNING COMMUTE WILL LIKELY BE A PROBLEM N OF
THE PIKE. SOUTH OF THE PIKE...WE ARE LOOKING AT MOSTLY A
RAIN/SNOW/SLEET MIXTURE WITH MAINLY RAIN NEAR THE S COAST.
GUSTY E WINDS DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST...ESPECIALLY
CAPE/ISLANDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
EXPECT PERIODS OF SNOW OR MIXED PRECIP TO CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF
THURSDAY AS COASTAL LOW SLOWLY MEANDERS S OF ACK FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY. PERSISTENT ELY LOW LEVEL JET WILL FOCUS THE STEADIEST
SNOWFALL ACROSS N ZONES AND PARTICULARLY ACROSS NE MA AND THE
MERRIMACK VALLEY WHERE A PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW IS POSSIBLE. AS A
RESULT WE EXPANDED THE WINTER STORM WARNING EASTWARD TO INCLUDE
BOS NORTHWARD ALONG COASTAL ESSEX COUNTY.
SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE...THE PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHTER BUT
THE COLUMN WILL ALSO BE COOLING DURING THE DAY AS THE WINDS BACK.
SO WE EXPECT ANY RAIN OR MIXED PRECIP TO EVENTUALLY CHANGE BACK
TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING. ADDITIONAL MINOR ACCUM IS POSSIBLE AWAY
FROM THE S COAST. IN ADDITION...GUSTY E/NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE CAPE/ISLANDS AND E COASTAL MA.
THIS IS A DIFFICULT SNOWFALL FORECAST DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN
THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF MID LEVEL WARMING AND HOW MUCH ENHANCEMENT
OCCURS WITH LOW LEVEL JET. OUR CURRENT FORECAST IS FOR 8-12"
NORTH OF THE PIKE AND 4-8" FROM BOS NWD ALONG COASTAL ESSEX
COUNTY. 2-6" N OF HFD-PVD-TAN TO THE MASS PIKE AND A COATING TO
2" ALONG THE S COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCE...
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SUITE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT INTO THIS
WEEKEND...THEN SOME DIVERGENCE SEEN BEYOND SUNDAY NAMELY WITH A
POSSIBLE WEAK LOW THAT MAY PASS S OF NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT OR
MONDAY TIMEFRAME WITH ANOTHER QUICK BATCH OF LIGHT PRECIP. OVERALL
THOUGH...LOOKS LIKE MOST OP MODELS SHOWING GENERAL AGREEMENT
AND...BETTER STILL AGREEMENT WITH MOST OF THEIR COMPANION ENSEMBLE
MEANS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE SETUP OF RIDGING ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD.
THURSDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ITS SURFACE REFLECTION
WEAKENS AS THEY WORK ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH SOME SURFACE
RIDGING BUILDING DOWN THE COAST. MAY SEE LEFTOVER PRECIP LINGER
ALONG THE E COAST WITH ONSHORE FLOW. OTHERWISE...SHOULD SEE
GENERAL IMPROVEMENT OVERNIGHT.
FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...WEAK HIGH PRES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THE DAY. WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...
THOUGH NEXT SYSTEM QUICKLY WORKING E SO ANY BREAKS WILL BE SHORT
LIVED. WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO S AND START TO PICK UP ESPECIALLY
FRI NIGHT AS PRECIP APPROACHES. TEMPS WILL HIT THEIR LOWS EARLY
FRI NIGHT...THEN WILL RISE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS PRECIP MOVES IN.
TEMPS MAY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR PRECIP TO START AS MIXED SLEET OR
FREEZING RAIN. HOWEVER...AS S WINDS INCREASES...MILDER AIR WILL
WORK IN AND MOST AREAS SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO RAIN BEFORE SUNRISE.
SATURDAY...MODELS STILL IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN SWINGING A COLD
FRONT TOWARD THE REGION AS ITS ASSOCIATED STRONG LOW PRES MOVES
ACROSS EASTERN ONTARIO AND CENTRAL QUEBEC. VERY STRONG H925 JET
WORKS ACROSS INTO EASTERN MA/RI BY AROUND MIDDAY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...UPWARDS TO 65-70 KT. WILL LIKELY SEE WIND GUSTS
INCREASE QUICKLY WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-35 KT...HIGHEST ALONG THE S
COAST AND ISLANDS. SOME OF THE MOS GUIDANCE STARTING TO SHOW MILD
TEMPS ALONG WITH 2M MODEL TEMPS...SO USED THESE FOR MAX READINGS
OF THE LOWER-MID 50S FOR MOST AREAS.
ALSO NOTING GOOD AREA OF INSTABILITY WORKING IN AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WITH LIFTED INDICES FROM ZERO TO -2...K INDICES IN THE
LOWER 30S AND TOTAL TOTALS IN THE LOWER 50S...AGAIN ACROSS EASTERN
AREAS. HAVE MENTIONED CHANCE OF TSTMS FOR THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON ACROSS THESE AREAS. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR STRONG
GUSTS THAT MAY MIX DOWN WITH ANY CONVECTION.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...LOW CONFIDENCE. THE SHOWERS
SHOULD HAVE PRETTY MUCH EXITED THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST BY
EARLY SAT EVENING...AS THE COLD FRONT WORKS THROUGH THE REGION.
HOWEVER...WE ARE GOING TO HAVE TO WATCH A COUPLE WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE THAT FORM ON THE FRONT...WHICH WILL BE HUNG UP OFF THE
ATLANTIC COAST. THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF KEEP BOTH WAVES OF
LOW PRESSURE FAR ENOUGH SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION TO KEEP MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION OFF THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST. HOWEVER...A FEW
OF THE GFS ENSEMBLES AND THE LATEST GGEM SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR A
TRACK CLOSER TO THE COAST. LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME...BUT DID
INCLUDE SOME LOW POPS TO COVER THIS POTENTIAL. IF PRECIPITATION
DOES MAKE IT FAR ENOUGH WEST...IT MAY BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME
WINTRY PRECIPITATION. ITS A LOW PROBABILITY AT THIS POINT...BUT
CERTAINLY WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
IT SHOULD START OFF QUITE COLD TUE MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE SIGNIFICANTLY BY
WED AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST WITH A RETURN SOUTHWEST FLOW OF
AIR. EXPECT DRY WEATHER OVER THIS PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT
MODERATE...30 PERCENT TO 60 PERCENT
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT
TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR IN PERIODS OF SNOW
NORTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE...WITH SNOW CHANGING TO MIXED PRECIP/RAIN
SOUTH OF THE PIKE. DRY SLOT MAY RESULT IN A BRIEF LULL IN THE
PRECIP THIS EVENING...BUT ANOTHER PULSE OF SNOW/MIXED PRECIP
EXPECTED AFTER 06Z. EASTERLY WIND GUSTS TO 30 KT DEVELOPING ACROSS
CAPE/ISLANDS AND SE MA.
THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
IN PERIODS OF SNOW NORTH AND MIXED PRECIP/RAIN NEAR THE S COAST
CONTINUE. STEADIEST PRECIP SHOULD BE CONFINED ALONG AND N OF THE
MASS PIKE. E WIND GUSTS TO 30-35 KT POSSIBLE OVER THE OUTER CAPE AND
ACK.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. PTYPE MOSTLY SNOW BUT
COULD MIX WITH SLEET OR RAIN AT TIMES LATE THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LEFTOVER PERIODS OF MVFR-IFR
CIGS/VSBYS MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN MA/RI/S NH. MVFR VSBYS MAY LINGER
AFTER MIDNIGHT ALONG E COAST...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
AFTER MIDNIGHT.
FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
DAY...THEN WILL LIKELY SEE MVFR CIGS/VSBYS MOVE IN FROM W-E MAINLY
AROUND OR AFTER MIDNIGHT IN MAINLY RAIN...THOUGH MIXED FZRA/PL
ACROSS INLAND AREAS AT THE ONSET. PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING LATE.
SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. PERIODS OF MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS
LIKELY IN RAIN. PATCHY FOG EARLY. PRECIP CHANGING OVER TO SNOW SAT
NIGHT BUT WILL TAPER OFF FROM W-E. S WIND GUSTS WILL LIKELY REACH
25-35 KT ACROSS E MA/RI...HIGHEST ACROSS S COAST AND THE ISLANDS.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. PROBABLY VFR
THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME...BUT A PERIOD OR TWO OF MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
EXPECT A PERIOD OF GALE FORCE EASTERLY WINDS TONIGHT...MAINLY
OUTER WATERS AS LLJ MOVES INTO THE WATERS. FOCUS FOR GALE FORCE
WINDS ON THU WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST COASTAL MA WATERS...ESPECIALLY
EAST OF CAPE COD TO EAST OF CAPE ANN. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 17 FT
OVER THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS ON THU.
FORTUNATELY THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE VERY LOW AND SO COASTAL
FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
THURSDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL BACK FROM NE TO N AND SLOWLY DIMINISH.
SEAS WILL ALSO SLOWLY SUBSIDE...BUT REMAIN WELL ABOVE 5 FT ON MOST
OF THE WATERS...HIGHEST ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS.
FRIDAY...NE WINDS GUSTING UP TO 30 KT EARLY WILL DIMINISH DURING
THE AFTERNOON...THEN VEER TO SE-S FRI NIGHT AS NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES. SEAS WILL REMAIN AOA 5 FT ON THE OPEN WATERS.
SATURDAY...STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS AHEAD
OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. EXPECT S-SW WINDS TO GUSTING UP TO GALE
FORCE OVER THE OPEN WATERS SAT AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL BUILD UP TO
10-12 FT...HIGHEST ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MAY SEE LEFTOVER GALE FORCE GUSTS
EARLY SAT NIGHT ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS. OTHERWISE...ENOUGH
COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD RESULT IN SCA NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS AND
SEAS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE PERIOD.
THERE COULD BE A PERIOD WHERE THE WINDS TURN MORE NORTH NORTHEAST
IF AN OCEAN STORM TRACKS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR MAZ002>010-
012-014-015-026.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MAZ017-
018.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR MAZ013-016.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MAZ011.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NHZ011-012-
015.
RI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR RIZ002-
004-005.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR RIZ001-003.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ232-255.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ233>237.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EST
FRIDAY FOR ANZ230.
GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM THURSDAY TO 2 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ231-
251.
GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM THURSDAY TO 2 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-
254.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/FRANK
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...EVT/FRANK
AVIATION...KJC/EVT/FRANK
MARINE...KJC/EVT/FRANK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
1250 PM EST TUE FEB 28 2012
.AVIATION...
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE PUSHING INLAND IN PREVAILING EAST FLOW THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD KEEP SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION INLAND OF THE
EAST COAST TERMINALS. AT KAPF...GULF SEA BREEZE SHOULD COMMENCE
AROUND 19Z WITH BETTER CHANCE OF SHRA NEAR TERMINAL. FOR NOW WILL
NOT INCLUDE TSRA ALTHOUGH THIS WILL HAVE TO BE CLOSELY WATCHED.
OTHERWISE, PREVAILING VFR EXPECTED AT ALL SITES OVER THE ENTIRE
FORECAST PERIOD. INCLUDED TEMPO 5SM BR AT KAPF DUE TO LIGHT EAST
FLOW AND LEFTOVER MOISTURE FROM ANY AFTERNOON/EVENING PRECIP. /MOLLEDA
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1011 AM EST TUE FEB 28 2012/
UPDATE...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES STRETCHING SW AND WEST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. LARGE AREA OF FOG
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM EXTENDED THIS MORNING AS FAR SOUTH AS CENTRAL
FLORIDA AND DOWN THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST. AT THE MID LEVELS SHORT
WAVE TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR YESTERDAY`S CONVECTION IS NOW EAST OF THE
PENINSULA WITH LOW AND MID LEVEL RIDGE NOW BEGINNING TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. LOOKING AT THE 12Z MODIFIED CONVECTIVE
PARAMETERS THE LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY REMAINS VERY LIMITED AS IT
WAS YESTERDAY. THAT COMBINED WITH WARMER AND LESS STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES MEAN THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION TODAY IS LESS. IN
FACT, LOOKING AT AN ENSEMBLE OF HI RES MODELS THAT INCLUDE THE
NATIONAL ARW AND NMM EAST, THE LOCAL ARW AND NMM RUNS, AND THE
HRRR SUPPORT THE CURRENT FORECAST WITH POPS RANGING FROM 10
PERCENT EASTERN PART OF THE CWA TO 20-30 PERCENT INTERIOR AND WEST
COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH THE CAVEAT THAT THAT
MIGHT BE GENEROUS GIVEN LOCAL WRF CONFIGURATIONS AND THE HRRR KEEP
US MOSTLY DRY. SO CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH NO CHANGE
IN OUTLOOK AS FAR AS POTENTIAL HAZARDOUS/IMPACT WEATHER CONDITIONS
FROM THIS MORNING ASSESSMENT.
MODIFIED SKY CONDITION GRIDS TO MORE ACCURATELY REFLECT THIS MORNING
TRENDS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 558 AM EST TUE FEB 28 2012/
AVIATION...HIGH PRES CENTERED OVR THE OH RVR VLY WL MOV E OVR NEW
ENGLAND AND THE MID ATLC COAST TONIGHT AND OVER THE ATLC OVR THE
NXT 24 HRS. THIS KEEPS AN E-ESE WND FLOW OVR S FLA THRU THE PD.
VFR THRU THE PD THOUGH SOME ERLY MORN SHRA WITH BRIEF MVFR CIG
WITH NO VSBY RESTRICTION THRU 15Z. MIFG PSBL AT KAPF FM TO 13Z.
SFC WNDS E COAST 3 TO 6 MPH ATTM BCMG 8-11 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS
PSBL TO MID TEENS AFT 14Z. AT KAPF...CALM WNDS BCMG ENE-E < 1- KTS
WITH W COAST SEA BRZE DVLPG AFT 19Z WITH WNDS BCMG SW-WSW ARND 10
KTS. SKC THEN BCMG SCT030 AFT 15Z WITH VCTS AFT 20Z.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 AM EST TUE FEB 28 2012/
DISCUSSION...MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT PROVIDED AFTERNOON/EVENING
CONVECTION ACROSS THE LAKE REGION TO COASTAL COLLIER COUNTY NOW
EXITING TO THE EAST WITH THE SHRA ACTIVITY RAPIDLY DISSIPATING.
EVEN THOUGH THIS TROUGH IS LEAVING THE REGION, FCST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE RESIDUAL MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE ALONG WITH
WEAK/MODERATE INSTABILITY. MOST MODELS INCLUDING THE GFS, NAM AND
RAPID REFRESH SHOW AFTERNOON CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN THE EASTERLY
FLOW ACROSS INTERIOR S FL AND THEN MOVING TOWARDS THE WEST. THUS
HAVE INDICATED THIS IN THE GRIDS AND EVEN THOUGH THE INSTABILITY
WILL BE MARGINAL, CANNOT RULE OUT AN OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKE
SO ALSO ADDED THUNDER POSSIBLE. BY TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY,
SEVERAL STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGHS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TIER OF STATES IN THE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WITH THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE BUILDING BACK OVER THE FL PENINSULA. THIS WILL RESULT IN
BENIGN WX CONDITIONS THROUGH THAT PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES. AT THE SFC, A SFC RIDGE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO S FL BY THURSDAY
AND THIS WILL PROVIDE FOR THE EASTERLY FLOW TO WEAKEN
SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH THE THREAT FOR RIP
CURRENTS AT THE ATLANTIC BEACHES TO LESSEN AND THE CHANCES FOR
INTERIOR LATE NIGHT FOG TO INCREASE.
LOOKING AHEAD TO NEXT WEEKEND, A STRONGER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND CARVE OUT A LARGER SCALE TROUGH ACROSS THE
EASTERN STATES WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING DOWN THE
PENINSULA. THE PARENT LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE
REGION ALONG WITH THE MAIN DYNAMICS WITH THE FRONT LACKING MUCH PUSH
BY THE TIME IT REACHES S FL BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. STILL A FEW
DEGREES OF COOLING CAN BE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH
CHANCES OF RAINFALL LOOKING MINIMAL.
MARINE...THE EASTERLY WIND WILL CONTINUE AND DIMINISH THROUGH
TODAY BECOMING SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN SOUTH ON SATURDAY
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE 4 FT OR
LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER...NO PROBLEMS OR CONCERNS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 71 83 69 83 / - - - -
FORT LAUDERDALE 73 82 73 83 / - - - -
MIAMI 72 83 72 84 / - - - -
NAPLES 66 85 65 85 / 20 - - -
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC/MARINE...52/SANTOS
AVIATION/FIRE/RADAR...59/MOLLEDA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TALLAHASSEE FL
1048 AM EST Tue Feb 28 2012
.UPDATE...
This mornings total column RUC analysis shows rather zonal flow
through the middle to upper levels, transitioning to ridging from
the middle levels to the surface. Locally, we reside on the southern
periphery of the surface ridge, placing our area under an easterly
flow regime. With bountiful moisture in place, a mixture of fog and
low ceilings were able to develop overnight, through this morning.
The fog is finally beginning to dissipate in most locations,
however, the low clouds will not respond the same. Expect the low
clouds to stick around for most if not all of the day today. A few
breaks in the cloud cover are possible late this afternoon along the
immediate coastline and along and east of a line from Cape San Blas
north through Valdosta. As we transition to weak ridging, higher
heights will allow the atmosphere to warm, even in the presence of
the solid deck of clouds. However, have nudged temperatures down
just slightly for this afternoon. Expect middle to upper 70s
southeast of the aforementioned cloud line, and lower 70s northeast
of the line. Rain chances will primarily be confined to the
western/northwestern portions of our CWA where a more southerly flow
component near the eastern edge of the ridge will allow for some
light isentropic showers to develop. Expect very little (if any)
rain south of the FL/AL & FL/GA state lines.
&&
.AVIATION...
Fog dissipation has been slightly slower than originally thought
this morning. Most terminals have returned to MVFR visibilities,
with the exception of KDHN. However, this is somewhat irrelevant due
to the IFR ceilings in place region-wide. Expect the IFR ceilings to
persist through the first part of the afternoon. After 18z, or
possibly 21z, ceilings will predominantly be MVFR region-wide, with
the possibility of some VFR scattering at KTLH, KECP, and KVLD.
Expect a mixture of fog and low ceilings once again tonight. This
threat will be addressed further in the afternoon TAF package.
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
GA...None.
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
Harrigan
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
1011 AM EST TUE FEB 28 2012
.UPDATE...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES STRETCHING SW AND WEST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. LARGE AREA OF FOG
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM EXTENDED THIS MORNING AS FAR SOUTH AS CENTRAL
FLORIDA AND DOWN THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST. AT THE MID LEVELS SHORT
WAVE TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR YESTERDAY`S CONVECTION IS NOW EAST OF THE
PENINSULA WITH LOW AND MID LEVEL RIDGE NOW BEGINNING TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. LOOKING AT THE 12Z MODIFIED CONVECTIVE
PARAMETERS THE LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY REMAINS VERY LIMITED AS IT
WAS YESTERDAY. THAT COMBINED WITH WARMER AND LESS STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES MEAN THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION TODAY IS LESS. IN
FACT, LOOKING AT AN ENSEMBLE OF HI RES MODELS THAT INCLUDE THE
NATIONAL ARW AND NMM EAST, THE LOCAL ARW AND NMM RUNS, AND THE
HRRR SUPPORT THE CURRENT FORECAST WITH POPS RANGING FROM 10
PERCENT EASTERN PART OF THE CWA TO 20-30 PERCENT INTERIOR AND WEST
COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH THE CAVEAT THAT THAT
MIGHT BE GENEROUS GIVEN LOCAL WRF CONFIGURATIONS AND THE HRRR KEEP
US MOSTLY DRY. SO CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH NO CHANGE
IN OUTLOOK AS FAR AS POTENTIAL HAZARDOUS/IMPACT WEATHER CONDITIONS
FROM THIS MORNING ASSESSMENT.
MODIFIED SKY CONDITION GRIDS TO MORE ACCURATELY REFLECT THIS MORNING
TRENDS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 558 AM EST TUE FEB 28 2012/
AVIATION...HIGH PRES CENTERED OVR THE OH RVR VLY WL MOV E OVR NEW
ENGLAND AND THE MID ATLC COAST TONIGHT AND OVER THE ATLC OVR THE
NXT 24 HRS. THIS KEEPS AN E-ESE WND FLOW OVR S FLA THRU THE PD.
VFR THRU THE PD THOUGH SOME ERLY MORN SHRA WITH BRIEF MVFR CIG
WITH NO VSBY RESTRICTION THRU 15Z. MIFG PSBL AT KAPF FM TO 13Z.
SFC WNDS E COAST 3 TO 6 MPH ATTM BCMG 8-11 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS
PSBL TO MID TEENS AFT 14Z. AT KAPF...CALM WNDS BCMG ENE-E < 1- KTS
WITH W COAST SEA BRZE DVLPG AFT 19Z WITH WNDS BCMG SW-WSW ARND 10
KTS. SKC THEN BCMG SCT030 AFT 15Z WITH VCTS AFT 20Z.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 AM EST TUE FEB 28 2012/
DISCUSSION...MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT PROVIDED AFTERNOON/EVENING
CONVECTION ACROSS THE LAKE REGION TO COASTAL COLLIER COUNTY NOW
EXITING TO THE EAST WITH THE SHRA ACTIVITY RAPIDLY DISSIPATING.
EVEN THOUGH THIS TROUGH IS LEAVING THE REGION, FCST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE RESIDUAL MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE ALONG WITH
WEAK/MODERATE INSTABILITY. MOST MODELS INCLUDING THE GFS, NAM AND
RAPID REFRESH SHOW AFTERNOON CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN THE EASTERLY
FLOW ACROSS INTERIOR S FL AND THEN MOVING TOWARDS THE WEST. THUS
HAVE INDICATED THIS IN THE GRIDS AND EVEN THOUGH THE INSTABILITY
WILL BE MARGINAL, CANNOT RULE OUT AN OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKE
SO ALSO ADDED THUNDER POSSIBLE. BY TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY,
SEVERAL STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGHS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TIER OF STATES IN THE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WITH THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE BUILDING BACK OVER THE FL PENINSULA. THIS WILL RESULT IN
BENIGN WX CONDITIONS THROUGH THAT PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES. AT THE SFC, A SFC RIDGE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO S FL BY THURSDAY
AND THIS WILL PROVIDE FOR THE EASTERLY FLOW TO WEAKEN
SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH THE THREAT FOR RIP
CURRENTS AT THE ATLANTIC BEACHES TO LESSEN AND THE CHANCES FOR
INTERIOR LATE NIGHT FOG TO INCREASE.
LOOKING AHEAD TO NEXT WEEKEND, A STRONGER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND CARVE OUT A LARGER SCALE TROUGH ACROSS THE
EASTERN STATES WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING DOWN THE
PENINSULA. THE PARENT LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE
REGION ALONG WITH THE MAIN DYNAMICS WITH THE FRONT LACKING MUCH PUSH
BY THE TIME IT REACHES S FL BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. STILL A FEW
DEGREES OF COOLING CAN BE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH
CHANCES OF RAINFALL LOOKING MINIMAL.
MARINE...THE EASTERLY WIND WILL CONTINUE AND DIMINISH THROUGH
TODAY BECOMING SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN SOUTH ON SATURDAY
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE 4 FT OR
LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER...NO PROBLEMS OR CONCERNS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 82 71 83 69 / 10 - - -
FORT LAUDERDALE 83 73 82 73 / 10 - - -
MIAMI 84 72 83 72 / 10 - - -
NAPLES 86 66 85 65 / 30 20 - -
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...52/PS
AVIATION/RADAR...59/RM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1033 AM EST TUE FEB 28 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE
AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD
FRONT EARLY THURSDAY WHICH WILL THEN STALL SOUTH OF THE AREA INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON
FRIDAY...WITH A MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE REGION LATE IN
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG DISSIPATED FROM THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE
WAS BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION. MORNING SUN INCREASED TEMPERATURES
INTO THE LOWER 60S IN MANY LOCATIONS...HELPING TO CLEAR SKIES OUT.
LOWERED SKY COVER GRIDS TO MAINLY PARTLY CLOUDY. UPPED THE HOURLY
TEMPERATURES 1-2 DEGREES USING THE RUC MODEL AND ADJUST HIGH
TEMPERATURES USING THE MAX TEMP SMART TOOL.
SUBJECT COLD FRONT NOW OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN NORTH AND
SOUTH CAROLINA...TEMPORARILY HUNG UP BEHIND A BUBBLE HIGH LOCATED
OVER THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT REGION. GUIDANCE DROPS FRONT RAPIDLY SE
ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN THIS MORNING AND WELL OFFSHORE BY
DAYBREAK. THE FRONT STALLS OFFSHORE...BENDING BACK TOWARDS SC AND
GA THIS AFTERNOON AS A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTAL WAVES DEVELOP AND
MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
DAYLIGHT HOURS WILL BE PLEASANT..WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY
LATER THIS MORNING AS A DRYER AIR MASS MOVES IN OVER SOUTH
CAROLINA AND GEORGIA IN WAKE OF THE COLD FROPA. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW A RETURN TO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND RESULTANT CLOUDINESS
OVERNIGHT AS EASTERLY FLOW ADVECTS IN AND TRAPS ATLANTIC MOISTURE
UNDER A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
MAY PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH LIFT FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY
TOWARDS DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY MORNING OVER THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF
THE FORECAST AREA.
MODEL CONSENSUS GIVES TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 70S TODAY AND
LOWER TO MOD 50S OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH WEDNESDAY MORNING. A WEAK
COASTAL TROUGH WILL PERSIST OFF THE SC COAST BUT ANY SHOWERS WILL
BE REFINED TO THE COASTAL WATERS SINCE THE DEEP MOISTURE WILL HAVE
CLEARED OUT. CLOUDINESS WILL BRIEFLY THIN OUT ON TUESDAY BEFORE
FILLING BACK IN LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND INCREASING FURTHER
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH. HIGHS WILL BE
AROUND 70 ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
CLOUD COVER KEEPING LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50-55 DEGREE RANGE
TUESDAY NIGHT.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF
WEDNESDAY BEFORE FLATTENING OUT AND ALLOWING SEVERAL EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES TO MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL SC. MEANWHILE THE SURFACE HIGH
WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST AND ALLOW STRONG WARM MOIST ADVECTION TO
DEVELOP IN RESPONSE. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP GREAT LAKES
SURFACE LOW WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
DESPITE CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS ON WEDNESDAY...THICKNESS ADVECTION
SHOULD ALLOW HIGH TEMPS TO REACH THE MID 70S NORTH TO LOWER 80S
SOUTH. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL DEWPOINTS WILL RISE TO AROUND 60F
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THE SYNOPTIC FORCING DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. WE HAVE KEPT WEDNESDAY DRY WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MOVING IN DURING THE EVENING AND 20-30 POPS
OVERNIGHT. THERE SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO JUSTIFY
KEEPING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST.
A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST BY THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER JUST NORTHWEST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT
GIVEN THE UNFAVORABLE TIMING AND WEAKENING STATE OF THE FRONT...WE
DO NOT PLAN ON MENTIONING ANY SEVERE WEATHER IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK AT THIS TIME.
THURSDAY...THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA IN THE
MORNING...THEN STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA AS IT BECOMES NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW. THERE MAY BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING WITH ITS PASSAGE...BUT
DRIER AIR SHOULD MOVE IN ENDING ANY SHOWERS BY AFTERNOON. DESPITE
THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...A DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND CLEARING SKIES WILL
ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS
WELL INTO THE UPPER 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH A WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD ON FRIDAY.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT
AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS OVER
THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AS FOR EXPECTED WEATHER...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH AND MOISTURE
INCREASES WITHIN A DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW. A SOLID CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS THEN EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH THE FRONT ITSELF...BEFORE DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN BY
SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
APPEAR VERY IMPRESSIVE. IF THE ATMOSPHERE CAN DESTABILIZE ENOUGH
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THEN THERE IS CERTAINLY A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA. IN ADDITION...BREEZY OR WINDY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY EVEN OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION DUE TO THE
STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY WITH STRONG COLD
AIR ADVECTION IN WAKE OF THE FRONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
THE WEEKEND...BEFORE RETURNING CLOSER TO NORMAL LATE IN THE WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
RISK FOR LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WITH A POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS
AS WELL. VFR SHOULD THEN PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY. MVFR OR LOWER
CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTORMS.
&&
.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS MORNING...TURNING WINDS TO
THE NE BY AROUND DAYBREAK. A MODEST COLD SURGE WILL KICK WINDS UP
TO AROUND 15 KTS OR SO INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. SEAS WILL INCREASE MAINLY INTO
THE 3 TO 4 FT RANGE...WITH SOME 5 FOOTERS POSSIBLE OVER THE OUTER
FRINGES OF OUR WATERS. WINDS WILL ABATE TO 10 KTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN...WITH SEAS CONTINUING IN
THE 3 TO 4 FT RANGE.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WITH WINDS AND WAVES NEARING
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS...BUT FORECAST TO REMAIN JUST BELOW
CRITERIA AT THIS TIME. THE FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE EARLY THURSDAY
WITH WINDS/SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY. VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS AHEAD OF
A POTENT COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH ON SATURDAY WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF
THE WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
920 AM EST TUE FEB 28 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH
TODAY. A WARM FRONT SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL LIFT NORTH OF
THE AREA WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HAVE EXTENDED DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM THIS MORNING FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA. STILL EXPECT OVERALL IMPROVEMENT IN VSBYS BY 10 AM.
LINGERING LOW- LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DRYING ALOFT HAS HELPED CAUSE
DENSE FOG EARLY THIS MORNING. THE LATEST RUC AND PRESSURE RISES
OCCURRING NORTH OF THE AREA SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS LATER THIS MORNING. THE DRY RIDGING SHOULD THEN BE DOMINATE
DURING MUCH OF TODAY EXCEPT THE MODELS INDICATE ISENTROPIC LIFT
LATER IN DAY NORTH OF A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT. EXPECT AN INCREASE
IN CLOUDINESS MAINLY IN THE SOUTH PART. THE NAM MOS INDICATES RAIN
MAY DEVELOP IN THE CENTRAL SAVANNAH RIVER AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE
LIFT APPEARS WEAK SO USED THE GFS MOS AND SREF GUIDANCE AND KEPT
THE DRY FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE AREA TODAY. THE TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE WAS CONSISTENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
CONTINUED ISENTROPIC LIFT NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT SUPPORTS
POSSIBLE RAIN TONIGHT. THE MODELS KEPT THE LIFT WEAK WITH A FLAT
UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN. THE NAM AND GFS MOS SUPPORT SLIGHT CHANCE OR
CHANCE POPS. THE NAM LI PATTERN SUGGEST THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY. USED THE GFS AND NAM MOS AND
FORECASTED A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS BECAUSE OF WEAK ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND CONVERGENCE NEAR THE WARM FRONT. THE CHANCE APPEARS
LIMITED BECAUSE OF THE WEAK LIFT...SHALLOW MOISTURE...AND A FLAT
UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN. THE NAM AND GFS SHOW A WEAKENING COLD FRONT
APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CHANCE POPS AS
INDICATED BY THE GFS AND NAM MOS APPEARS REASONABLE BECAUSE OF
DIMINISHING CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAKENING FRONT AND
LITTLE UPPER-LEVEL LIFT. DESPITE THE WEAKENING CONVERGENCE THE NAM
AND GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING HIGH SHEAR WITH H85 WINDS OF
40 TO 50 KNOTS. THE NAM INDICATES SURFACE-BASED LI/S OF -1 TO -3.
THIS COMBINATION OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SUPPORTS POSSIBLE SEVERE
WIND GUSTS AND WE HAVE NOTED THE THREAT IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURES EXCEPT
THE WARMER VALUES APPEAR BETTER WEDNESDAY NIGHT BECAUSE OF
CLOUDINESS AND MIXING AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE GFS SHOWS THE FRONT STALLING AND BECOMING DIFFUSE IN THE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY. DEEPER MOISTURE APPEARS TO SHIFT SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE AREA. THE FRONT APPEARS TO BECOME A WARM FRONT FRIDAY
WITH AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE. THIS WARM FRONT SHOULD LIFT NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THE GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW THIS COLD FRONT IN THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY. STRONG SHEAR
AND SOME INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT
SUPPORTING A THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. DRYING BEHIND THE
FRONT SHOULD DOMINATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VSBYS BEGINNING TO SLOWLY IMPROVE OVER THE AREA...SLOWLY BECOMING
IFR. VSBYS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH 15Z-16Z. WINDS
WILL BE PICKING UP OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AROUND 10 MPH AFTER 15Z.
HIGH CLOUDS WILL BLANKET THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON AND LOWER VFR
CIGS WILL RETURN AFTER 00Z ASSOCIATED WITH WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF
THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIGS AFTER
06Z WITH POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS 09Z-12Z.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WED/WED NT
INTO EARLY THU...EARLY FRI...AND AGAIN SAT.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR SCZ015-016-
018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR GAZ040-
063>065-077.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
630 AM EST TUE FEB 28 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH
TODAY. A WARM FRONT SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL LIFT NORTH OF
THE AREA WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DRYING ALOFT HAS HELPED CAUSE
DENSE FOG EARLY THIS MORNING. THE LATEST RUC AND PRESSURE RISES
OCCURRING NORTH OF THE AREA SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS LATER THIS MORNING. EXPECT IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR BEFORE
1000 AM THIS MORNING. THE DRY RIDGING SHOULD THEN BE DOMINATE
DURING MUCH OF TODAY EXCEPT THE MODELS INDICATE ISENTROPIC LIFT
LATER IN DAY NORTH OF A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT. EXPECT AN INCREASE
IN CLOUDINESS MAINLY IN THE SOUTH PART. THE NAM MOS INDICATES
RAIN MAY DEVELOP IN THE CENTRAL SAVANNAH RIVER AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. THE LIFT APPEARS WEAK SO USED THE GFS MOS AND SREF
GUIDANCE AND KEPT THE DRY FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE AREA TODAY. THE
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CONSISTENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
CONTINUED ISENTROPIC LIFT NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT SUPPORTS
POSSIBLE RAIN TONIGHT. THE MODELS KEPT THE LIFT WEAK WITH A FLAT
UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN. THE NAM AND GFS MOS SUPPORT SLIGHT CHANCE OR
CHANCE POPS. THE NAM LI PATTERN SUGGEST THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY. USED THE GFS AND NAM MOS AND
FORECASTED A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS BECAUSE OF WEAK ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND CONVERGENCE NEAR THE WARM FRONT. THE CHANCE APPEARS
LIMITED BECAUSE OF THE WEAK LIFT...SHALLOW MOISTURE...AND A FLAT
UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN. THE NAM AND GFS SHOW A WEAKENING COLD FRONT
APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CHANCE POPS AS
INDICATED BY THE GFS AND NAM MOS APPEARS REASONABLE BECAUSE OF
DIMINISHING CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAKENING FRONT AND
LITTLE UPPER-LEVEL LIFT. DESPITE THE WEAKENING CONVERGENCE THE NAM
AND GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING HIGH SHEAR WITH H85 WINDS OF
40 TO 50 KNOTS. THE NAM INDICATES SURFACE-BASED LI/S OF -1 TO -3.
THIS COMBINATION OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SUPPORTS POSSIBLE SEVERE
WIND GUSTS AND WE HAVE NOTED THE THREAT IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURES EXCEPT
THE WARMER VALUES APPEAR BETTER WEDNESDAY NIGHT BECAUSE OF
CLOUDINESS AND MIXING AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE GFS SHOWS THE FRONT STALLING AND BECOMING DIFFUSE IN THE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY. DEEPER MOISTURE APPEARS TO SHIFT SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE AREA. THE FRONT APPEARS TO BECOME A WARM FRONT FRIDAY
WITH AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE. THIS WARM FRONT SHOULD LIFT NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THE GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW THIS COLD FRONT IN THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY. STRONG SHEAR
AND SOME INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT
SUPPORTING A THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. DRYING BEHIND THE
FRONT SHOULD DOMINATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WIDESPREAD LIFR CONDITIONS AREAWIDE IN DENSE FOG. EXPECT LIFR
CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH 14Z-15Z BEFORE FOG LIFTS AND
CIGS/VSBYS RETURN TO VFR BY 16Z. WINDS WILL BE PICKING UP OUT OF
THE NORTHEAST AROUND 10 MPH AFTER 15Z. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BLANKET
THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON AND LOWER VFR CIGS WILL RETURN AFTER
00Z ASSOCIATED WITH WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER
SYSTEM. INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIGS AFTER 06Z WITH POSSIBLE
IFR CONDITIONS 09Z-12Z.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WED/WED NT
INTO EARLY THU...EARLY FRI...AND AGAIN SAT.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR SCZ015-016-
018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR GAZ040-
063>065-077.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JL
NEAR TERM...JL
SHORT TERM...JL
LONG TERM...JL
AVIATION...HC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
302 AM EST TUE FEB 28 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH
TODAY. A WARM FRONT SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL LIFT NORTH OF
THE AREA WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DRYING ALOFT HAS HELPED CAUSE
DENSE FOG EARLY THIS MORNING. THE LATEST RUC AND PRESSURE RISES
OCCURRING NORTH OF THE AREA SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS LATER THIS MORNING. EXPECT IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR BEFORE
1000 AM THIS MORNING. THE DRY RIDGING SHOULD THEN BE DOMINATE
DURING MUCH OF TODAY EXCEPT THE MODELS INDICATE ISENTROPIC LIFT
LATER IN DAY NORTH OF A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT. EXPECT AN INCREASE
IN CLOUDINESS MAINLY IN THE SOUTH PART. THE NAM MOS INDICATES
RAIN MAY DEVELOP IN THE CENTRAL SAVANNAH RIVER AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. THE LIFT APPEARS WEAK SO USED THE GFS MOS AND SREF
GUIDANCE AND KEPT THE DRY FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE AREA TODAY. THE
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CONSISTENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
CONTINUED ISENTROPIC LIFT NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT SUPPORTS
POSSIBLE RAIN TONIGHT. THE MODELS KEPT THE LIFT WEAK WITH A FLAT
UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN. THE NAM AND GFS MOS SUPPORT SLIGHT CHANCE OR
CHANCE POPS. THE NAM LI PATTERN SUGGEST THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY. USED THE GFS AND NAM MOS AND
FORECASTED A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS BECAUSE OF WEAK ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND CONVERGENCE NEAR THE WARM FRONT. THE CHANCE APPEARS
LIMITED BECAUSE OF THE WEAK LIFT...SHALLOW MOISTURE...AND A FLAT
UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN. THE NAM AND GFS SHOW A WEAKENING COLD FRONT
APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CHANCE POPS AS
INDICATED BY THE GFS AND NAM MOS APPEARS REASONABLE BECAUSE OF
DIMINISHING CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAKENING FRONT AND
LITTLE UPPER-LEVEL LIFT. DESPITE THE WEAKENING CONVERGENCE THE NAM
AND GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING HIGH SHEAR WITH H85 WINDS OF
40 TO 50 KNOTS. THE NAM INDICATES SURFACE-BASED LI/S OF -1 TO -3.
THIS COMBINATION OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SUPPORTS POSSIBLE SEVERE
WIND GUSTS AND WE HAVE NOTED THE THREAT IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURES EXCEPT
THE WARMER VALUES APPEAR BETTER WEDNESDAY NIGHT BECAUSE OF
CLOUDINESS AND MIXING AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE GFS SHOWS THE FRONT STALLING AND BECOMING DIFFUSE IN THE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY. DEEPER MOISTURE APPEARS TO SHIFT SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE AREA. THE FRONT APPEARS TO BECOME A WARM FRONT FRIDAY
WITH AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE. THIS WARM FRONT SHOULD LIFT NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THE GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW THIS COLD FRONT IN THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY. STRONG SHEAR
AND SOME INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT
SUPPORTING A THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. DRYING BEHIND THE
FRONT SHOULD DOMINATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WIDESPREAD LIFR CONDITIONS AREAWIDE IN DENSE FOG. AFTERNOON STRATUS
HAS PUSHED EAST OF ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT OGB AND THE CLEARING HAS
ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO FALL AND WIDESPREAD FOG HAS DEVELOPED.
EXPECT LIFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH 12Z-14Z BEFORE FOG LIFTS
AND CIGS/VSBYS RETURN TO VFR BY 16Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN NEAR CALM
OVERNIGHT BEFORE PICKING UP OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AROUND 10 MPH
AFTER 15Z. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BLANKET THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON AND
LOWER VFR CIGS WILL RETURN AFTER 00Z ASSOCIATED WITH WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE
TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW
OUTSIDE OF AGS/DNL.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WED/WED NT
INTO EARLY THU...EARLY FRI...AND AGAIN SAT.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR SCZ015-016-
018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR GAZ040-
063>065-077.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
119 AM EST TUE FEB 28 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH
TODAY. A WARM FRONT SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL LIFT NORTH OF
THE AREA WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DRYING ALOFT HAS HELPED CAUSE
DENSE FOG EARLY THIS MORNING. THE LATEST RUC AND PRESSURE RISES
OCCURRING NORTH OF THE AREA SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS LATER THIS MORNING. EXPECT IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR BEFORE
1000 AM THIS MORNING. THE DRY RIDGING SHOULD THEN BE DOMINATE
DURING MUCH OF TODAY EXCEPT THE MODELS INDICATE ISENTROPIC LIFT
LATER IN DAY NORTH OF A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT. EXPECT AN INCREASE
IN CLOUDINESS MAINLY IN THE SOUTH PART. THE NAM MOS INDICATES
RAIN MAY DEVELOP IN THE CENTRAL SAVANNAH RIVER AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. THE LIFT APPEARS WEAK SO USED THE GFS MOS AND SREF
GUIDANCE AND KEPT THE DRY FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE AREA TODAY. THE
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CONSISTENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
CONTINUED ISENTROPIC LIFT NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT SUPPORTS
POSSIBLE RAIN TONIGHT. THE MODELS KEPT THE LIFT WEAK WITH A FLAT
UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN. THE NAM AND GFS MOS SUPPORT SLIGHT CHANCE OR
CHANCE POPS. THE NAM LI PATTERN SUGGEST THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY. USED THE GFS AND NAM MOS AND
FORECASTED A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS BECAUSE OF WEAK ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND CONVERGENCE NEAR THE WARM FRONT. THE CHANCE APPEARS
LIMITED BECAUSE OF THE WEAK LIFT...SHALLOW MOISTURE...AND A FLAT
UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN. THE NAM AND GFS SHOW A WEAKENING COLD FRONT
APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CHANCE POPS AS
INDICATED BY THE GFS AND NAM MOS APPEARS REASONABLE BECAUSE OF
DIMINISHING CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAKENING FRONT AND
LITTLE UPPER-LEVEL LIFT. DESPITE THE WEAKENING CONVERGENCE THE NAM
AND GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING HIGH SHEAR WITH H85 WINDS OF
40 TO 50 KNOTS. THE NAM INDICATES SURFACE-BASED LI/S OF -1 TO -3.
THIS COMBINATION OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SUPPORTS POSSIBLE SEVERE
WIND GUSTS AND WE HAVE NOTED THE THREAT IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURES EXCEPT
THE WARMER VALUES APPEAR BETTER WEDNESDAY NIGHT BECAUSE OF
CLOUDINESS AND MIXING AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE GFS SHOWS THE FRONT STALLING AND BECOMING DIFFUSE IN THE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY. DEEPER MOISTURE APPEARS TO SHIFT SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE AREA. THE FRONT APPEARS TO BECOME A WARM FRONT FRIDAY
WITH AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE. THIS WARM FRONT SHOULD LIFT NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THE GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW THIS COLD FRONT IN THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY. STRONG SHEAR
AND SOME INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT
SUPPORTING A THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. DRYING BEHIND THE
FRONT SHOULD DOMINATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WIDESPREAD LIFR CONDITIONS AREAWIDE IN DENSE FOG. AFTERNOON STRATUS
HAS PUSHED EAST OF ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT OGB AND THE CLEARING HAS
ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO FALL AND WIDESPREAD FOG HAS DEVELOPED.
EXPECT LIFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH 12Z-14Z BEFORE FOG LIFTS
AND CIGS/VSBYS RETURN TO VFR BY 16Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN NEAR CALM
OVERNIGHT BEFORE PICKING UP OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AROUND 10 MPH
AFTER 15Z. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BLANKET THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON AND
LOWER VFR CIGS WILL RETURN AFTER 00Z ASSOCIATED WITH WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE
TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW
OUTSIDE OF AGS/DNL.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WED/WED NT
INTO EARLY THU...EARLY FRI...AND AGAIN SAT.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR SCZ015-016-
018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR GAZ040-
063>065-077.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
608 PM EST WED FEB 29 2012
.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PUSH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUDINESS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.
GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN QUIET WEATHER TO THE AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY...WHEN ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS
AND PERHAPS SEVERE WEATHER TO THE AREA.
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE
QUIET...WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT/...
FOCUS IS ON WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND SKY COVER/TEMPS OVERNIGHT.
GUIDANCE IS SIMILAR AND A BLEND IS USED.
HAVE TRIMMED WIND ADVISORY BACK TO JUST THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF
THE FORECAST AREA...AS STRONGER GUSTS HAVE NOT MATERIALIZED ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...STRONGER GUSTS ARE OCCURRING IN THE
NORTHWEST...AND 40 PLUS KNOT GUSTS ARE OCCURRING JUST TO OUR
NORTHWEST. RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR THESE TO MAKE
THE NORTHWEST FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE GUSTS
SUBSIDE THIS EVENING.
CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW WILL BRUSH OUR NORTHERN
THIRD OR SO OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT...BUT SOUTHERN PORTIONS
WILL REMAIN CLEAR.
SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL SKIRT THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING...AND MAY SEE A COUPLE OF SPRINKLES OR
A BIT OF DRIZZLE...BUT THIS IS RATHER UNCERTAIN SO CHOSE TO
EXCLUDE A MENTION AT THIS TIME.
ON TEMPS...FEEL THAT MOS IS A BIT TOO COOL...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THAT
CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN SOMEWHAT BREEZY OVERNIGHT AND
CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO KEEPING THINGS A BIT WARMER
IN SPOTS. HAVE RAISED CONSENSUS A COUPLE OF DEGREES...AND THIS IS
WELL IN LINE WITH UPSTREAM MINS FROM LAST NIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FOCUS IS ON POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT...AS WELL AS POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER. SIGNIFICANT GUIDANCE
DISCREPANCIES NOTED IN THE STRENGTH AND POSITION OF SYSTEM PUSHING
INTO THE AREA DURING THIS TIME...AND HAVE TEMPERED EXPECTATIONS
TOWARD THE CONSENSUS WHILE NOT COMPLETELY DISCOUNTING THE
SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER NAM.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND THIS IS WHERE GUIDANCE DIVERGES. MUCH OF THE AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE LEANS TOWARD A BIT WEAKER AND FURTHER SOUTH
SOLUTION...SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT AND TODAY...WITH THE COLD FRONT
THROUGH MUCH EARLIER IN THE DAY. NAM IS SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER AND
MORE WOUND UP WITH THE LOW...AND IF THIS VERIFIES...A SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA...WITH ANY AND ALL THREATS POSSIBLE...AS SREF POSTPROCESSED
GUIDANCE INDICATES SIGNIFICANT LOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND WEAK
TO MODERATE INSTABILITY. OVERALL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO
BE A GOOD BET FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND THE SEVERE THREAT
BEARS CLOSE SCRUTINY AS THE DAY APPROACHES.
ON TEMPS...GUIDANCE APPEARS TOO COOL THROUGHOUT...AND HAVE
ADJUSTED CONSENSUS UP MOST PERIODS. DEPENDING ON TIME OF WARM
FRONT ARRIVAL LATE THURSDAY NIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY...A NON DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE PROGRESSION MAY BE NECESSARY THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PER THE EMSEMBLES THE EXTENDED PERIOD FOR THE MOST PART SHOULD BE
DRY...WITH A FEW EXCEPTIONS. A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER TROF
PUSHING ACROSS THE SRN GREAT LAKES WILL BRING SOME PRECIP CHANCES TO
THE AREA ON SUNDAY...POSSIBLY MIXING WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW WELL NORTH
OF I-70 AS TEMPS APPEARS COOL ENOUGH. AFTER THAT A RIDGE BUILDS
INTHROUGH THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEK AND THEN A VERY STRONG FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY...BRINGING WHAT LOOKS LIKE A
GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO THE REGION ON WED.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 01/0000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER WISCONSIN WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND TO JUST NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO BY END OF THE
TAF PERIOD.
MAIN ISSUES FOR AVIATION WILL BE STRONG WINDS AT THE START OF THE
TAF PERIOD AS SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE UP TO 20 KNOTS AND GUSTS TO 30
TO 35 KNOTS. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE DURING THE PERIOD AS
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. HOWEVER WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS STILL
POSSIBLE INTO THURSDAY MORNING. BY END OF THE TAF PERIOD WINDS WILL
BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS INTO OUR AREA.
SOME WRAP AROUND CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. HOWEVER CEILINGS WILL
REMAIN VFR AND THESE CLOUDS WILL BEGIN CLEARING FROM THE SOUTHWEST
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BY MIDDAY THURSDAY.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR INZ021-028>031-
035>038-043>045-051-052.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...JH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
114 PM MST TUE FEB 28 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 107 PM MST TUE FEB 28 2012
HAD TO RAISE MAXES EVEN MORE FROM EARLIER. REMAINDER OF FORECAST
APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK AT THIS TIME.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1104 AM MST TUE FEB 28 2012
WINDS OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AND TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA HAVE BEGUN TO GUST TO 60 MPH OR GREATER. GLD
VWP SHOWS THAT 50 KNOTS PLUS IS GETTING WITHIN 1 TO 2 THOUSAND OF
THE SURFACE. BELIEVE RUC IS CATCHING THE LOW LEVEL WINDS THE BEST
BUT IT HAS THE HIGHEST BAND OF WINDS TOO FAR EAST. GOING BY
CURRENT TRENDS...RUC...AND MODELS UNDERDOING THE LAPSE
RATES...HAVE DECIDED TO PUT THE HIGH WIND WARNING OUT FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER MAY INHIBIT THAT SOME IN THE EAST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1004 AM MST TUE FEB 28 2012
JUST COMPLETED AN UPDATE. OVERALL THE RUC AND TO A LESSER EXTENT
THE NAM IS CATCHING THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/THERMAL FIELDS THE
BEST. INITIAL PROBLEM WAS WEATHER/POPS. SOME FOG STILL GOING BUT
PER RUC SHOULD BE GONE SHORTLY. DRY SLOT PER SATELLITE HAS PUSHED
OVER THE AREA ALREADY. MODELS LOOK BEHIND AND NOT DRY ENOUGH WITH
THIS FEATURE. WHAT PRECIPITATION THERE WAS HAS NOW MOVED EAST OUT
OF THE AREA AHEAD OF THE DRY SLOT. PER SATELLITE AND THE ABQ
SOUNDING AM REALLY CONCERNED IF WILL SEE ANY MORE PRECIPITATION
FROM WHAT WE HAD. THERE IS A DRY LINE AND SOME MID LEVEL LIFT BUT
BELIEVE THE MOISTURE WILL BE GOOD ENOUGH FOR ANYTHING WIDESPREAD.
THE NAM LIMITS THE INSTABILITY TO THE FAR EAST BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON BUT WHERE THIS INSTABILITY IS THE AIR MASS MAY BE
CAPPED. ACTIVITY IS BLOSSOMING TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA AT
THIS TIME...AND BELIEVE THAT IS WHERE THAT WILL BE. CANNOT TOTALLY
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IN THE EAST INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING. BASED ON THE UPPER LOW TRAJECTORY THINK IT WILL BE DRY
AFTER THAT. RUC IS CLOSEST TO REALITY ON TEMPS/DEWPOINTS AND USED
FOR THE UPDATE. THIS MEANS WARMER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER
DEWPOINTS THAN CURRENTLY DEPICTED. ALSO ADJUSTED SKY COVER BASED
ON REALITY. AT THIS TIME...WINDS LOOK FINE BASED ON THE LATEST
DATA BUT WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH CLOSELY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 735 AM MST TUE FEB 28 2012
AREA OBSERVATIONS SHOWING WIDESPREAD STRATUS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA
WITH AREAS OF FOG AT MOST LOCATIONS AS WELL. EXPECT THE FOG AND
STRATUS/CLOUD COVER TO CONTINUE TO BE GREATER THAN CURRENTLY
DEPICTED DUE TO CONTINUED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INFLOW. WINDS LOOK
FINE AT THIS TIME WITH ADVISORY CRITERIA ALREADY BEING REACHED IN
SOME LOCATIONS. WILL NEED TO ADDRESS THE FORECAST AGAIN SHORTLY
ESPECIALLY IF THE WIND SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST AND DRIER AIR DOES NOT
GET IN HERE AS FAST AS CURRENTLY EXPECTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 107 PM MST TUE FEB 28 2012
WINDS WILL HAVE DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY THIS EVENING FROM WHAT
OCCURRED TODAY. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT THEY WILL STAY IN THE
15 TO 25 MPH RANGE AND GUSTY AT TIMES. THIS SHOULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TOO MUCH SO RAISED THEM FROM THE
PREVIOUS PACKAGE. MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AXIS EXITS THE FORECAST
AREA EARLY THIS EVENING AND THAT IS WHEN THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD
END. AT THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING ANY WARP AROUND TO OCCUR DUE TO
THE PATH THE UPPER LOW IS TAKING. CURRENT SATELLITE AND RADAR
TRENDS SUPPORT THIS.
EVEN WITH THE CLOUD COVER...MODELS WERE ON THE COOL SIDE WITH
TODAYS MAXES. SO BASED ON THE TRENDS...PROGGED 850 MB
TEMPERATURES...SIMILAR TO TODAYS 850 MB TEMPERATURES...WESTERLY
WINDS AND LOW DEWPOINTS...RAISED MAXES INTO THE 60S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. IF THESE MAXES AND THE LOW DEWPOINTS ARE REALIZED...WILL
NEED ANOTHER FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHT FOR TOMORROW. BUT TO AVOID
CONFUSION WITH THE CURRENT HIGHLIGHTS...WILL NOT ISSUE IT AND LET
THE EVENING TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT IT.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 AM MST TUE FEB 28 2012
DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH A RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE RIDGE SHIFT EAST THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH. POPS
WILL REMAIN NIL UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT WHEN DYNAMICS FROM THE TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE FA. PLAN TO CONTINUE CHANCE
POPS WHICH WILL BE TIED TO THE FRONT.POPS WILL DECREASE TO SLIGHT
CHANCE BEHIND THE FRONT. SOUNDINGS INDICATE A CHANGE FROM RAIN TO
SNOW BEHIND THE FRONT WHICH ENTERS THE FA AROUND 06Z FRIDAY. DUE TO
SPEED OF FRONT SNOWFALL SHOULD ONLY AMOUNT TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH.
DAYS 4-7...THE UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW WILL BE EXITING THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION ON FRIDAY WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION
DIMINISHING DURING THE DAY. THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC AND WESTERN UNITED STATES BEGINS MOVING OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE WESTERN U.S. OVER THE WEEKEND. NORTHWEST FLOW
OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL TRANSITION TO WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH
A LEE TROUGH DEVELOPING IN RESPONSE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER THE ROCKIES SUNDAY NIGHT AND THE PLAINS
REGION ACROSS THE THE CENTRAL U.S. BY LATE MONDAY. EXCEPT FOR
FRIDAY...THIS PERIOD WILL REMAIN DRY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING
THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY AND LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1040 AM MST TUE FEB 28 2012
TRICKY SET OF TAFS DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION
UNCERTAINTY. CONDITIONS BECOME VFR AT KGLD AND EXPECT THAT TO
CONTINUE. STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE ENTIRE
ALTHOUGH THE STRENGTH WILL DROP NEAR SUNSET. AT KMCK MVFR OR NEAR
MVFR CIGS TO START OUT AND THEN SHOULD CLEAR. THERE IS A THREAT OF
AN ISOLATED -TSRA NEAR THERE BUT BELIEVE MAIN THREAT IS TO THE
NORTH OF THE AREA. KEPT VCTS IN THERE THROUGH 00Z. TRENDS FOR THE
STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE SAME KGLD.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ090>092.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ254.
KS...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
KSZ027-028-041-042.
NE...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NEZ079>081.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM....FS/LOCKHART
AVIATION...BULLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1110 AM MST TUE FEB 28 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1104 AM MST TUE FEB 28 2012
WINDS OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AND TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA HAVE BEGUN TO GUST TO 60 MPH OR GREATER. GLD
VWP SHOWS THAT 50 KNOTS PLUS IS GETTING WITHIN 1 TO 2 THOUSAND OF
THE SURFACE. BELIEVE RUC IS CATCHING THE LOW LEVEL WINDS THE BEST
BUT IT HAS THE HIGHEST BAND OF WINDS TOO FAR EAST. GOING BY
CURRENT TRENDS...RUC...AND MODELS UNDERDOING THE LAPSE
RATES...HAVE DECIDED TO PUT THE HIGH WIND WARNING OUT FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER MAY INHIBIT THAT SOME IN THE EAST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1004 AM MST TUE FEB 28 2012
JUST COMPLETED AN UPDATE. OVERALL THE RUC AND TO A LESSER EXTENT
THE NAM IS CATCHING THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/THERMAL FIELDS THE
BEST. INITIAL PROBLEM WAS WEATHER/POPS. SOME FOG STILL GOING BUT
PER RUC SHOULD BE GONE SHORTLY. DRY SLOT PER SATELLITE HAS PUSHED
OVER THE AREA ALREADY. MODELS LOOK BEHIND AND NOT DRY ENOUGH WITH
THIS FEATURE. WHAT PRECIPITATION THERE WAS HAS NOW MOVED EAST OUT
OF THE AREA AHEAD OF THE DRY SLOT. PER SATELLITE AND THE ABQ
SOUNDING AM REALLY CONCERNED IF WILL SEE ANY MORE PRECIPITATION
FROM WHAT WE HAD. THERE IS A DRY LINE AND SOME MID LEVEL LIFT BUT
BELIEVE THE MOISTURE WILL BE GOOD ENOUGH FOR ANYTHING WIDESPREAD.
THE NAM LIMITS THE INSTABILITY TO THE FAR EAST BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON BUT WHERE THIS INSTABILITY IS THE AIR MASS MAY BE
CAPPED. ACTIVITY IS BLOSSOMING TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA AT
THIS TIME...AND BELIEVE THAT IS WHERE THAT WILL BE. CANNOT TOTALLY
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IN THE EAST INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING. BASED ON THE UPPER LOW TRAJECTORY THINK IT WILL BE DRY
AFTER THAT. RUC IS CLOSEST TO REALITY ON TEMPS/DEWPOINTS AND USED
FOR THE UPDATE. THIS MEANS WARMER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER
DEWPOINTS THAN CURRENTLY DEPICTED. ALSO ADJUSTED SKY COVER BASED
ON REALITY. AT THIS TIME...WINDS LOOK FINE BASED ON THE LATEST
DATA BUT WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH CLOSELY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 735 AM MST TUE FEB 28 2012
AREA OBSERVATIONS SHOWING WIDESPREAD STRATUS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA
WITH AREAS OF FOG AT MOST LOCATIONS AS WELL. EXPECT THE FOG AND
STRATUS/CLOUD COVER TO CONTINUE TO BE GREATER THAN CURRENTLY
DEPICTED DUE TO CONTINUED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INFLOW. WINDS LOOK
FINE AT THIS TIME WITH ADVISORY CRITERIA ALREADY BEING REACHED IN
SOME LOCATIONS. WILL NEED TO ADDRESS THE FORECAST AGAIN SHORTLY
ESPECIALLY IF THE WIND SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST AND DRIER AIR DOES NOT
GET IN HERE AS FAST AS CURRENTLY EXPECTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 AM MST TUE FEB 28 2012
THE MAIN WEATHER TODAY WILL BE WIND...NOT PRECIPITATION. MODELS
INDICATE A HIGH END WIND ADVISORY ACROSS ALL ZONES EXCEPT THE
NORTHWEST WHERE WIND WILL STILL REACH ADVISORY FOR A BRIEF TIME.
THEREFORE HAVE EXPANDED THE CURRENT WIND ADVISORY TO INCLUDE ALL OF
THE FA. DUE TO THE LACK OF PRECIPITATION AND STRONG WIND, RH VALUES
WILL DROP TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER LEVELS OVER THE SOUTH FA THIS
AFTERNOON. PLAN ON ISSUING A RED FLAG WARNING TO COVER THAT AREA AS
WELL (SEE DETAILS BELOW). FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE FA INDICATE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ALL LIQUID. AROUND 200 J/KG CAPE WILL BE
AVAILABLE FOR SOME POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE FA QUICKLY. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
MAY LINGER IN THE EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SUBSIDENCE WILL MOVE
INTO THE FA THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A RIDGE
BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS. CONSEQUENTLY POPS WILL BE NIL FOR
TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 AM MST TUE FEB 28 2012
DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH A RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE RIDGE SHIFT EAST THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH. POPS
WILL REMAIN NIL UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT WHEN DYNAMICS FROM THE TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE FA. PLAN TO CONTINUE CHANCE
POPS WHICH WILL BE TIED TO THE FRONT.POPS WILL DECREASE TO SLIGHT
CHANCE BEHIND THE FRONT. SOUNDINGS INDICATE A CHANGE FROM RAIN TO
SNOW BEHIND THE FRONT WHICH ENTERS THE FA AROUND 06Z FRIDAY. DUE TO
SPEED OF FRONT SNOWFALL SHOULD ONLY AMOUNT TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH.
DAYS 4-7...THE UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW WILL BE EXITING THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION ON FRIDAY WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION
DIMINISHING DURING THE DAY. THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC AND WESTERN UNITED STATES BEGINS MOVING OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE WESTERN U.S. OVER THE WEEKEND. NORTHWEST FLOW
OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL TRANSITION TO WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH
A LEE TROUGH DEVELOPING IN RESPONSE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER THE ROCKIES SUNDAY NIGHT AND THE PLAINS
REGION ACROSS THE THE CENTRAL U.S. BY LATE MONDAY. EXCEPT FOR
FRIDAY...THIS PERIOD WILL REMAIN DRY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING
THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY AND LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1040 AM MST TUE FEB 28 2012
TRICKY SET OF TAFS DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION
UNCERTAINTY. CONDITIONS BECOME VFR AT KGLD AND EXPECT THAT TO
CONTINUE. STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE ENTIRE
ALTHOUGH THE STRENGTH WILL DROP NEAR SUNSET. AT KMCK MVFR OR NEAR
MVFR CIGS TO START OUT AND THEN SHOULD CLEAR. THERE IS A THREAT OF
AN ISOLATED -TSRA NEAR THERE BUT BELIEVE MAIN THREAT IS TO THE
NORTH OF THE AREA. KEPT VCTS IN THERE THROUGH 00Z. TRENDS FOR THE
STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE SAME KGLD.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ090>092.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ254.
KS...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
KSZ027-028-041-042.
NE...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NEZ079>081.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM....FS/LOCKHART
AVIATION...BULLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1044 AM MST TUE FEB 28 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1004 AM MST TUE FEB 28 2012
JUST COMPLETED AN UPDATE. OVERALL THE RUC AND TO A LESSER EXTENT
THE NAM IS CATCHING THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/THERMAL FIELDS THE
BEST. INITIAL PROBLEM WAS WEATHER/POPS. SOME FOG STILL GOING BUT
PER RUC SHOULD BE GONE SHORTLY. DRY SLOT PER SATELLITE HAS PUSHED
OVER THE AREA ALREADY. MODELS LOOK BEHIND AND NOT DRY ENOUGH WITH
THIS FEATURE. WHAT PRECIPITATION THERE WAS HAS NOW MOVED EAST OUT
OF THE AREA AHEAD OF THE DRY SLOT. PER SATELLITE AND THE ABQ
SOUNDING AM REALLY CONCERNED IF WILL SEE ANY MORE PRECIPITATION
FROM WHAT WE HAD. THERE IS A DRY LINE AND SOME MID LEVEL LIFT BUT
BELIEVE THE MOISTURE WILL BE GOOD ENOUGH FOR ANYTHING WIDESPREAD.
THE NAM LIMITS THE INSTABILITY TO THE FAR EAST BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON BUT WHERE THIS INSTABILITY IS THE AIR MASS MAY BE
CAPPED. ACTIVITY IS BLOSSOMING TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA AT
THIS TIME...AND BELIEVE THAT IS WHERE THAT WILL BE. CANNOT TOTALLY
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IN THE EAST INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING. BASED ON THE UPPER LOW TRAJECTORY THINK IT WILL BE DRY
AFTER THAT. RUC IS CLOSEST TO REALITY ON TEMPS/DEWPOINTS AND USED
FOR THE UPDATE. THIS MEANS WARMER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER
DEWPOINTS THAN CURRENTLY DEPICTED. ALSO ADJUSTED SKY COVER BASED
ON REALITY. AT THIS TIME...WINDS LOOK FINE BASED ON THE LATEST
DATA BUT WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH CLOSELY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 735 AM MST TUE FEB 28 2012
AREA OBSERVATIONS SHOWING WIDESPREAD STRATUS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA
WITH AREAS OF FOG AT MOST LOCATIONS AS WELL. EXPECT THE FOG AND
STRATUS/CLOUD COVER TO CONTINUE TO BE GREATER THAN CURRENTLY
DEPICTED DUE TO CONTINUED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INFLOW. WINDS LOOK
FINE AT THIS TIME WITH ADVISORY CRITERIA ALREADY BEING REACHED IN
SOME LOCATIONS. WILL NEED TO ADDRESS THE FORECAST AGAIN SHORTLY
ESPECIALLY IF THE WIND SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST AND DRIER AIR DOES NOT
GET IN HERE AS FAST AS CURRENTLY EXPECTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 AM MST TUE FEB 28 2012
THE MAIN WEATHER TODAY WILL BE WIND...NOT PRECIPITATION. MODELS
INDICATE A HIGH END WIND ADVISORY ACROSS ALL ZONES EXCEPT THE
NORTHWEST WHERE WIND WILL STILL REACH ADVISORY FOR A BRIEF TIME.
THEREFORE HAVE EXPANDED THE CURRENT WIND ADVISORY TO INCLUDE ALL OF
THE FA. DUE TO THE LACK OF PRECIPITATION AND STRONG WIND, RH VALUES
WILL DROP TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER LEVELS OVER THE SOUTH FA THIS
AFTERNOON. PLAN ON ISSUING A RED FLAG WARNING TO COVER THAT AREA AS
WELL (SEE DETAILS BELOW). FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE FA INDICATE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ALL LIQUID. AROUND 200 J/KG CAPE WILL BE
AVAILABLE FOR SOME POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE FA QUICKLY. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
MAY LINGER IN THE EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SUBSIDENCE WILL MOVE
INTO THE FA THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A RIDGE
BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS. CONSEQUENTLY POPS WILL BE NIL FOR
TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 AM MST TUE FEB 28 2012
DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH A RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE RIDGE SHIFT EAST THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH. POPS
WILL REMAIN NIL UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT WHEN DYNAMICS FROM THE TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE FA. PLAN TO CONTINUE CHANCE
POPS WHICH WILL BE TIED TO THE FRONT.POPS WILL DECREASE TO SLIGHT
CHANCE BEHIND THE FRONT. SOUNDINGS INDICATE A CHANGE FROM RAIN TO
SNOW BEHIND THE FRONT WHICH ENTERS THE FA AROUND 06Z FRIDAY. DUE TO
SPEED OF FRONT SNOWFALL SHOULD ONLY AMOUNT TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH.
DAYS 4-7...THE UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW WILL BE EXITING THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION ON FRIDAY WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION
DIMINISHING DURING THE DAY. THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC AND WESTERN UNITED STATES BEGINS MOVING OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE WESTERN U.S. OVER THE WEEKEND. NORTHWEST FLOW
OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL TRANSITION TO WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH
A LEE TROUGH DEVELOPING IN RESPONSE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER THE ROCKIES SUNDAY NIGHT AND THE PLAINS
REGION ACROSS THE THE CENTRAL U.S. BY LATE MONDAY. EXCEPT FOR
FRIDAY...THIS PERIOD WILL REMAIN DRY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING
THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY AND LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1040 AM MST TUE FEB 28 2012
TRICKY SET OF TAFS DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION
UNCERTAINTY. CONDITIONS BECOME VFR AT KGLD AND EXPECT THAT TO
CONTINUE. STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE ENTIRE
ALTHOUGH THE STRENGTH WILL DROP NEAR SUNSET. AT KMCK MVFR OR NEAR
MVFR CIGS TO START OUT AND THEN SHOULD CLEAR. THERE IS A THREAT OF
AN ISOLATED -TSRA NEAR THERE BUT BELIEVE MAIN THREAT IS TO THE
NORTH OF THE AREA. KEPT VCTS IN THERE THROUGH 00Z. TRENDS FOR THE
STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE SAME KGLD.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ090>092.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ254.
KS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
KSZ027-028-041-042.
NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NEZ079>081.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM....FS/LOCKHART
AVIATION...BULLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1014 AM MST TUE FEB 28 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1004 AM MST TUE FEB 28 2012
JUST COMPLETED AN UPDATE. OVERALL THE RUC AND TO A LESSER EXTENT
THE NAM IS CATCHING THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/THERMAL FIELDS THE
BEST. INITIAL PROBLEM WAS WEATHER/POPS. SOME FOG STILL GOING BUT
PER RUC SHOULD BE GONE SHORTLY. DRY SLOT PER SATELLITE HAS PUSHED
OVER THE AREA ALREADY. MODELS LOOK BEHIND AND NOT DRY ENOUGH WITH
THIS FEATURE. WHAT PRECIPITATION THERE WAS HAS NOW MOVED EAST OUT
OF THE AREA AHEAD OF THE DRY SLOT. PER SATELLITE AND THE ABQ
SOUNDING AM REALLY CONCERNED IF WILL SEE ANY MORE PRECIPITATION
FROM WHAT WE HAD. THERE IS A DRY LINE AND SOME MID LEVEL LIFT BUT
BELIEVE THE MOISTURE WILL BE GOOD ENOUGH FOR ANYTHING WIDESPREAD.
THE NAM LIMITS THE INSTABILITY TO THE FAR EAST BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON BUT WHERE THIS INSTABILITY IS THE AIR MASS MAY BE
CAPPED. ACTIVITY IS BLOSSOMING TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA AT
THIS TIME...AND BELIEVE THAT IS WHERE THAT WILL BE. CANNOT TOTALLY
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IN THE EAST INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING. BASED ON THE UPPER LOW TRAJECTORY THINK IT WILL BE DRY
AFTER THAT. RUC IS CLOSEST TO REALITY ON TEMPS/DEWPOINTS AND USED
FOR THE UPDATE. THIS MEANS WARMER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER
DEWPOINTS THAN CURRENTLY DEPICTED. ALSO ADJUSTED SKY COVER BASED
ON REALITY. AT THIS TIME...WINDS LOOK FINE BASED ON THE LATEST
DATA BUT WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH CLOSELY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 735 AM MST TUE FEB 28 2012
AREA OBSERVATIONS SHOWING WIDESPREAD STRATUS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA
WITH AREAS OF FOG AT MOST LOCATIONS AS WELL. EXPECT THE FOG AND
STRATUS/CLOUD COVER TO CONTINUE TO BE GREATER THAN CURRENTLY
DEPICTED DUE TO CONTINUED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INFLOW. WINDS LOOK
FINE AT THIS TIME WITH ADVISORY CRITERIA ALREADY BEING REACHED IN
SOME LOCATIONS. WILL NEED TO ADDRESS THE FORECAST AGAIN SHORTLY
ESPECIALLY IF THE WIND SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST AND DRIER AIR DOES NOT
GET IN HERE AS FAST AS CURRENTLY EXPECTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 AM MST TUE FEB 28 2012
THE MAIN WEATHER TODAY WILL BE WIND...NOT PRECIPITATION. MODELS
INDICATE A HIGH END WIND ADVISORY ACROSS ALL ZONES EXCEPT THE
NORTHWEST WHERE WIND WILL STILL REACH ADVISORY FOR A BRIEF TIME.
THEREFORE HAVE EXPANDED THE CURRENT WIND ADVISORY TO INCLUDE ALL OF
THE FA. DUE TO THE LACK OF PRECIPITATION AND STRONG WIND, RH VALUES
WILL DROP TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER LEVELS OVER THE SOUTH FA THIS
AFTERNOON. PLAN ON ISSUING A RED FLAG WARNING TO COVER THAT AREA AS
WELL (SEE DETAILS BELOW). FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE FA INDICATE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ALL LIQUID. AROUND 200 J/KG CAPE WILL BE
AVAILABLE FOR SOME POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE FA QUICKLY. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
MAY LINGER IN THE EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SUBSIDENCE WILL MOVE
INTO THE FA THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A RIDGE
BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS. CONSEQUENTLY POPS WILL BE NIL FOR
TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 AM MST TUE FEB 28 2012
DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH A RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE RIDGE SHIFT EAST THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH. POPS
WILL REMAIN NIL UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT WHEN DYNAMICS FROM THE TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE FA. PLAN TO CONTINUE CHANCE
POPS WHICH WILL BE TIED TO THE FRONT.POPS WILL DECREASE TO SLIGHT
CHANCE BEHIND THE FRONT. SOUNDINGS INDICATE A CHANGE FROM RAIN TO
SNOW BEHIND THE FRONT WHICH ENTERS THE FA AROUND 06Z FRIDAY. DUE TO
SPEED OF FRONT SNOWFALL SHOULD ONLY AMOUNT TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH.
DAYS 4-7...THE UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW WILL BE EXITING THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION ON FRIDAY WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION
DIMINISHING DURING THE DAY. THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC AND WESTERN UNITED STATES BEGINS MOVING OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE WESTERN U.S. OVER THE WEEKEND. NORTHWEST FLOW
OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL TRANSITION TO WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH
A LEE TROUGH DEVELOPING IN RESPONSE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER THE ROCKIES SUNDAY NIGHT AND THE PLAINS
REGION ACROSS THE THE CENTRAL U.S. BY LATE MONDAY. EXCEPT FOR
FRIDAY...THIS PERIOD WILL REMAIN DRY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING
THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY AND LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 351 AM MST TUE FEB 28 2012
IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS MORNING AT KGLD AND KMCK AS UPPER
SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA. PRECIPITATION WILL BE BRIEF WHILE STRONG
WIND WILL PERSIST UNTIL EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY MID
AFTERNOON AT BOTH SITES WITH CLEARING AND DECREASING WIND OVERNINGHT.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ090>092.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ254.
KS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
KSZ027-028-041-042.
NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NEZ079>081.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM....FS/LOCKHART
AVIATION...FS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
412 PM EST TUE FEB 28 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 359 PM EST TUE FEB 28 2012
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVANCE TOWARDS NORTHERN MICHIGAN...GENERATING A WINTRY MIX OF
PRECIPITATION WHICH WILL BEGIN LATE TONIGHT...AND LAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED OVER THE UPPER
PENINSULA. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK THURSDAY AS AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION...ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
START TO TAKE SHAPE IN THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EST TUE FEB 28 2012
TOP DOWN SATURATION ONGOING OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH SNOW ALREADY
HAVING REACHING THE GROUND FROM BEAVER ISLAND EAST TO MACKINAC
ISLAND. THIS SNOW HAS DEVELOPED LESS IN RESPONSE TO OUR UPCOMING
WEATHER-MAKER...AND MORE IN-LINE WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A
H25 JET MAX THAT EXTENDS FROM LAKE SUPERIOR SOUTH AND EAST INTO
SOUTHERN ONTARIO...AS WELL AS A WEAK PV ANOMALY SEEN IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY NOW JUST NORTH EAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND RACING EAST. THESE
FEATURES...COMBINED WITH STRENGTHENING UPSTREAM WARM ADVECTION IN
ADVANCE OF EJECTING FOUR CORNERS SHORTWAVE HAS HELPED CONSOLIDATE A
BAND OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS...WITH JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SNOW
TO REACH THE GROUND. ANYTHING THROUGH THIS EVENING SHOULD BE PRETTY
LIGHT...HOWEVER...AND AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE PUSHES
EAST...WE WILL LIKELY SEE THIS ACTIVITY DRY UP SOME WITH PERHAPS
JUST A FEW FLURRIES OVER NORTHWEST LOWER AND THE STRAITS REGION WITH
STRENGTHENING DRY LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW HELPING ERODE ANY
MOISTURE. EARLY AFTERNOON HRRR IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THESE
TRENDS.
A WINTER WEATHER MESS IS SET TO ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT COURTESY OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERN
STATES...BEING KICKED NORTH AND EAST BY ARRIVING ENERGY ALONG THE
PACIFIC COAST. MODEL INITIALIZATION WAS GENERALLY GOOD AT 12UTC
WITH ANY ERRORS NOT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN
FORECASTS FROM THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF. THE TREND OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS
OF A MORE ROBUST AND NORTHERN SOLUTION TO THE SURFACE LOW HAS ENDED
WITH ALL GUIDANCE SHOWING A SLIGHT SOUTHWARD SHIFT IN THEIR 12Z
SOLUTIONS WITH GOOD CLUSTERING OF THE GEFS AROUND THE GFS AND THE
09Z SREF CLOSE TO THE 12Z NAM. THIS BRINGS LOW PRESSURE NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO A POSITION OVER SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA BY
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY /NEAR 990 MB/ WITH A LOW TRACK THAT THEN MOVES
JUST ABOUT DUE EAST AS THE SYSTEM OCCLUDES. IN TERMS OF PATTERN
RECOGNITION...H7 LOW TRACK MOVES EAST ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER SOMETIME
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SUGGESTING THE BEST CHANCES FOR PROLONGED SNOWS
WILL BE FROM THE TIP OF THE MITT NORTH.
OUR WEATHER-MAKER WILL HAVE AMPLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AS THE GULF
WAS WIDE OPEN AS OF 12UTC WITH H85 DEWPOINTS AT OR ABOVE 10C
STREAMING NORTH ACROSS TX/OK/AK/LA. THE RESULT OF STRENGTHENING
MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE 1" PWATS MAKING A RUN AT THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT.
TONIGHT...BAND OF STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON THE I290 SURFACE WILL
SPREAD NORTH AS THE AFOREMENTIONED STREAM OF MOISTURE PUSHES NORTH.
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN TONIGHT RESIDES AROUND PRECIPITATION START
TIME...AS DRY LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ATTEMPTS TO ERODE
MOISTURE AS IT ARRIVES. THERE HAS BEEN A NOTICEABLE TREND TO SLOW
PRECIPITATION ONSET TIME WITH THE 12UTC GUIDANCE...WHICH IS VERY
REASONABLE GIVEN THE SETUP. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS FOR THIS
REASON...WHICH SHOULD KEEP PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF THE BRIDGE THROUGH
DAYBREAK. FURTHER SOUTH...A SWATH OF MODERATE TO POTENTIALLY HEAVY
PRECIPITATION WILL ARRIVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. WITHIN THIS
BAND...INGREDIENTS LOOK GOOD FOR SOME BANDED HEAVY SNOW POTENTIAL...
WITH OMEGA BULLS-EYED NEAR OR AT OR JUST ABOVE THE CENTER OF THE DGZ
WITH REDUCED EPV ALOFT AS STRONG WARM ADVECTION REDUCES MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES. PRECIPITATION TYPE ISSUES WILL ENSUE QUICKLY BEHIND
INITIAL EDGE OF SNOWFALL AS WETBULB ZERO LINE AT H85 ARRIVES OVER MY
FAR SOUTHWEST ZONES TOWARDS DAYBREAK. THEREFORE...WILL INTRODUCE A
SLEET/FREEZING RAIN MIX AFTER 9Z IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST. THROUGH
DAYBREAK...EXPECT 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF A
CHARLEVOIX TO GAYLORD TO HARRISVILLE LINE...WITH SNOW COMING DOWN
PRETTY HEAVILY AS MORNING ARRIVES IN THESE SPOTS. TEMPERATURES WILL
ONLY FALL OF A LITTLE OVERNIGHT...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO
AROUND FREEZING.
TOUGH FORECAST FOR THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE OCCLUDES AND
WARM NOSE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTH. FIRST THINGS
FIRST...PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTH AND SHOULD ARRIVE
OVER EASTERN UPPER NO LATER THAN LATE MORNING/NOON. FURTHER
SOUTH...BAND OF HEAVY SNOW WILL MAKE THE TRANSITION TO
SLEET/FREEZING RAIN AS TEMPS ALOFT WARM...BUT IT/S LOOKING LIKE A
PRETTY SMALL WINDOW FOR ICING POTENTIAL AS DEEP MOISTURE WILL
RAPIDLY LIFT OUT OF MY SOUTHERN ZONES BY MID MORNING /PERHAPS
QUICKER...HAVE SEEN THIS HAPPEN BEFORE/ TRANSITIONING PRECIPITATION
TO DRIZZLE/ AND SHOWERS. WITH THE SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH
SOLUTION...EXPECT THAT ANY MIX WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME REACHING MUCH
FARTHER NORTH THAN M-32 WITH PERHAPS SOME SLEET MIXING AT TIMES UP
TO M-68. BY AFTERNOON...EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS SOUTH OF M-68 TO
TRANSITION TO SOME DRIZZLE OR SHOWERS...WITH STRONG H7-5 LAPSE RATES
AND NON-NEGLIGIBLE ELEVATED INSTABILITY SUGGESTING ANY SHOWERS THAT
DEVELOP IN THE AIRMASS BEHIND THE SURFACE OCCLUSION COULD BE
ROBUST. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WEDNESDAY LOOK GREATEST OVER EASTERN UPPER
WHERE 12 HOUR TOTALS NEAR 6 INCHES LOOK LIKELY GIVEN THAT THE
DRYSLOT WILL NEVER REACH THIS LOCATION. AMOUNTS WILL TAPER OFF
FURTHER SOUTH AND HAVE GONE A LITTLE BELOW THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS
QPF GIVEN SYNOPTIC SETUP/PATTERN RECOGNITION. THIS WILL YIELD
ADDITIONAL SNOWS 1-2 INCHES NEAR M-72 UP TO 3-5 INCHES NEAR M-68.
SOUTH OF M-72 AND WEST OF US-131 THERE WILL LIKELY BE LITTLE/NO
ADDITIONAL SNOW...WITH ICING AMOUNTS GENERALLY ONE TENTH OF AN INCH
OR LESS.
FINALLY THERE IS ALSO GOING TO BE A WIND ELEMENT AS LOW PRESSURE
NEARS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SOME
BLOWING/DRIFTING OF SNOW THAT FALLS...PARTICULARLY NEAR THE STRAITS
WHERE THE SNOW WILL BE /SLIGHTLY/ DRIER AND WINDS STRONGER. GUSTS
TO 35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THIS REGION.
AS FOR HEADLINES...WILL ADD THE TIP OF THE MITT COUNTIES /EMMET
CHEBOYGAN/ AS WELL AS PRESQUE ISLE TO THE WARNING GIVEN 4-6 INCHES
OF SNOW AND LIKELY SIGNIFICANT BLOWING/DRIFTING NEAR THE COAST.
FURTHER SOUTH...IN COORDINATION WITH GRR/DTX WILL TRANSITION ALL
LOCATIONS TO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE SNOW CHANGING TO
MIX.
ARNOTT
&&
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EST TUE FEB 28 2012
MAIN FOCUS OVER THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE
HANDLING THE DEPARTURE OF WEDNESDAY`S SYSTEM AND WITH THE EVOLUTION
OF THE NEXT POTENTIALLY STRONG STORM SYSTEM FOR FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND...AND THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW CHANCES THEREAFTER.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE MESSY STORM SYSTEM WILL BE DEPARTING TO THE
EAST WITH A TRACK GENERALLY ACROSS M-68. THE OCCLUDED LOW PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN ALONG WITH THE ASSOCIATED FORCING. THAT
SAID...WE ARE STILL GOING TO HAVE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW/CONVERGENCE
FOR PRECIPITATION TO BE OCCURRING ALL OF NRN MICHIGAN FOR MOST OF
THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE EVENING AND A FEW HOURS PAST
MIDNIGHT...AHEAD OF APPROACHING SFC/UPPER LOWS. TRYING TO PICK OUT
THE PARTICULAR PRECIPITATION TYPES IN THE EARLY EVENING IS A RATHER
DAUNTING TASK...AS INITIAL DRY SLOTTING ALOFT IS LIKELY TO RESULT IN
SOME DRIZZLE TYPE PRECIP FROM NRN LOWER AND THEN INTO EASTERN UPPER
DURING THE EVENING AND TO SOME DEGREE OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION...AND
DEPENDING ON RATE OF DECAY OF THE TROWAL...COULD EVEN SEE SOME EARLY
EVENING SNOW/SLEET LINGERING OVER THE ALPENA AREA. THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE WILL PASS THROUGH NRN LOWER FOR OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOWS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...WHILE SOME LIGHT SNOW AND OCCASIONAL
DRIZZLY TYPE PRECIP COULD BE ON AND OFF ACROSS EASTERN UPPER THROUGH
THE NIGHT. PRECIP WILL WIND DOWN ACROSS NW LOWER TOWARD DAYBREAK
WITH THE ATMOSPHERE DRYING OUT MORE SUBSTANTIALLY. TOTAL SNOWFALL
WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND AN INCH FOR MOST ALL OF NRN MICHIGAN...WITH
SOME 2 INCH REPORTS LIKELY.
THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...SOME ILL-DEFINED TROUGHING REMAINS
STRETCHED OUT ACROSS NE LOWER THROUGH EASTERN UPPER THROUGH THE DAY
WHILE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO EXIT EAST. ONLY SMALL CHANCES FOR
LINGERING LIGHT PRECIP (LIGHT SNOW/FREEZING DRIZZLE) EARLY IN THE
MORNING. THIS DAY WILL BE BETTER CHARACTERIZED BY RIDGING ALOFT AND
DRYING...WHILE NEXT UPPER TROUGH SHARPENS/DROPS THROUGH THE ROCKIES
WITH BROAD LOW PRESSURE IN THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY. THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT...A COUPLE OF AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME MORE DEFINED. ONE WITH SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY IN SRN CANADA AND
OUR NRN BORDER...AND ANOTHER NEAR KS/OK ASSOCIATED WITH STRONGER
SHORTWAVE/STRENGTHENING UPPER JET DYNAMICS ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH. SKIES WILL BE INCREASING IN CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE
NIGHT WITHIN INITIAL WEAK PVA...WITH ONLY SMALL CHANCES OF BROAD
SCALE THETA-E ADVECTION MOISTENING UP THE ATMOSPHERE ENOUGH FOR SOME
LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES ACROSS NW LOWER THROUGH EASTERN UPPER.
FRIDAY ONWARD...DETAILS ARE STILL UNCLEAR ON WHAT HAPPENS FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY...AS THERE ARE STILL CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES
REGARDING THE SFC AND UPPER LEVEL PATTERNS IN MODEL SOLUTIONS. THE
GENERAL IDEA IS FOR THE NRN/SRN STREAM WAVES TO UNDERGO SOME SORT OF
PHASING FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...WITH ONE CONSOLIDATED SFC LOW
PRESSURE STRENGTHENING...OR POSSIBLY "BOMBING" OUT...DEEPENING
NEARLY 30 MB OVER 18 HRS. NOW...THE MAIN QUESTION IS WHERE AND WHEN
THIS WILL OCCUR...SINCE IT WILL HAVE OBVIOUS IMPLICATIONS ON THE
SPECIFIC WEATHER TO OCCUR. GEM THE OUTLIER AND HAS WEAKEST AND
FURTHEST EAST PHASING...WITH THE GFS THE MOST RADICAL IN
STRENGTHENING. EVEN WITH THINGS BEING UNCLEAR ON MANY PARTS...THERE
IS SOME DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE LOW PRESSURE GATHERING STRENGTH AS
IT PASSES OVER OR JUST TO OUR EAST THROUGH SATURDAY. HOW MUCH
MOISTURE IS INVOLVED...AND OTHER MORE DETAILED THINGS ARE DEFINITELY
MORE UNCLEAR...BUT A RAIN/SNOW SCENARIO IS THE BEST FORECAST AT THIS
POINT...WITH RAIN EAST AND SNOW IN THE NW CWA. CAN REFINE THE
DETAILS AS THINGS UNFOLD. ONE OTHER COMMONALITY WITH THESE SOLUTIONS
IS FOR COLD ENOUGH AIR TO DRAIN INTO NRN MICHIGAN WITH DEEP ENOUGH
MOISTURE FOR A PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW PRIMARILY SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. MAYBE SOME DECENT ACCUMS IF THE SAME GENERAL
IDEAS ARE UPHELD IN FUTURE MODEL RUNS. THINGS QUIET DOWN FROM LES
LATE MONDAY/TUESDAY OR SO...WITH EVIDENCE OF STRONG WARMING ARRIVING
TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM EST TUE FEB 28 2012
ASIDE FROM SOME LIGHT SNOW AT KPLN NEXT COUPLE OF HRS...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO TONIGHT ACROSS NRN MI AS MID CLOUDS
THICKEN OVERHEAD. PRECIP ARRIVES LATER TONIGHT AS STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE SW. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AFTER
ROUGHLY 07Z AS SNOW...FREEZING RAIN...SLEET...AND RAIN ARRIVE. LLWS
ALSO POSSIBLE AFTER 05Z WITH APPROACH OF WARM FRONT.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 359 PM EST TUE FEB 28 2012
WILL GO AHEAD AND EXPAND GALE WARNINGS TO BASICALLY INCLUDE ALL
ZONES SAVE STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS TO
40KTS /950MB TO 50KTS/ WITH SOME LLEVEL MIXING SUGGESTS THAT GUSTS
TO GALE FORCE ARE LIKELY JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE...WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS THROUGH THE STRAITS WHERE SOME FUNNELING/COASTAL
CONVERGENCE WILL GIVE THINGS AN ADDED BOOST. WINDS AND WAVES WILL
DIMINISH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE PULLS
EAST OF THE REGION. ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WINDS LOOKS POSSIBLE
IN THE FRIDAY-SATURDAY TIMEFRAME AS A NEW LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPS IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THERE/S PLENTY OF TIME TO LOOK
AT THIS SYSTEM...BUT AT THIS EARLY JUNCTURE GALES LOOK TO BE A
DISTINCT POSSIBILITY.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 3 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
MIZ019>036-041-042.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 5 AM EST THURSDAY
FOR MIZ008-015.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 AM WEDNESDAY TO 5 AM EST THURSDAY
FOR MIZ016>018.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 11 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LHZ349.
GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 11 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LHZ345>348.
LM...GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 11 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ341-342.
GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 5 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ323-344>346.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TL
SHORT TERM...ARNOTT
LONG TERM....SMD
AVIATION...BS
MARINE...ARNOTT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
300 PM CST TUE FEB 28 2012
.DISCUSSION...
WHAT A DIFFERENCE ABOUT 125 MILES MAKES... WHICH IS ROUGHLY THE
DIFFERENCE IN WHERE THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE TRACKING VS HOW IT
APPEARED TWO DAYS AGO. OVERALL... THIS MEANS THE FORECAST IS
PRETTY SIMILAR TO WHAT HAS BEEN EXPECTED... EXCEPT EVERYTHING HAS
BEEN SHIFTED BY ABOUT THAT DISTANCE NORTHWARD. THERE WILL BE SOME
ADDITIONAL CHANGES FORTHCOMING IN TERMS OF THE HEADLINES AND
SNOWFALL EXPECTATIONS... AS WELL AS THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC UPPER AIR
ANALYSES SHOW OUR SYSTEM FINALLY BEGINNING TO EMERGE FROM THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES... WITH THE SURFACE LOW LOCATED NEAR THE
INTERSECTION OF COLORADO... NEBRASKA... AND KANSAS. THE GUIDANCE
IS... FINALLY... IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING AND MOVEMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM... TAKING THE SURFACE LOW NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY... THEN VERY NEAR THE TWIN CITIES BY
18Z... BEFORE MOVING OFF TO THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME
DIFFERENCES DO REMAIN IN THE GUIDANCE IN TERMS OF EXACTLY HOW WARM
THE ELEVATED WARM LAYER WILL GET... AS WELL AS THE NEAR SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THE WARMER TEMPERATURES.
OVERALL... IT NOW LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD GET SOME DEGREE OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION OVER ALL BUT PERHAPS THE FAR NORTHERN PART OF THE
AREA FOR A TIME TONIGHT. THE SOUTHERN CWFA HAS ALREADY
TRANSITIONED TO SLEET OR RAIN... AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
NORTH THROUGH THE EVENING. BASED THE FORECAST DETAILS ON A BLEND
OF GFS... NAM... AND SREF GUIDANCE... BUT WITH A BIT OF WEIGHT ON
THE RUC DURING THE FIRST 12 HOURS. ALSO LIKE THE GENERAL LOOK OF
THE HRRR PRECIPITATION/REFLECTIVITY FIELDS THROUGH THIS EVENING...
SO TOOK THAT INTO ACCOUNT.
AS MENTIONED... EXPECT TO SEE THE MIXED PRECIPITATION PUSH NORTH
THROUGH THIS EVENING AS THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET PERSIST AHEAD OF
THE SURFACE LOW. SUFFICIENTLY WARM TEMPERATURES AROUND 850-825MB
LOOK TO GET AS FAR NORTH AS KAXN... BRINGING SOME CHANCE OF AT
LEAST ICE PELLETS INTO THE FAR NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
A BRIEF WINDOW OF FREEZING RAIN STILL SEEMS POSSIBLE DURING THE
TRANSITION FROM SLEET TO RAIN WHICH WILL OCCUR OVER THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWFA... ALTHOUGH OBSERVATIONS AND
FORECAST PROFILES SUGGEST THAT ANY FZRA SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED WITH
THINGS PRIMARILY GOING FROM SLEET TO RAIN OVER NEARLY THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA BY EARLY THIS EVENING. AS THE SYSTEM OCCLUDES
LATER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING AND BEGINS DRIFTING EAST WE
SHOULD SEE THINGS COOL DOWN ONCE AGAIN... WITH THE WARM TONGUE
ERODING FROM 09Z-15Z... CHANGING THE PCPN ASSOCIATED THE UPPER
TROUGH BACK TO SNOW FOR THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. PRIOR TO THEN... IT
STILL APPEARS THAT WE WILL HAVE HEAVY PCPN TONIGHT... FALLING AS
SNOW AND SLEET OVER THE NORTH... SLEET AND RAIN OVER THE
CENTRAL... AND RAIN OVER THE SOUTH. HOWEVER... THE SOUTHERN PART
OF THE AREA SHOULD ALSO SEE THE DRY SLOT WORK IN... WHICH WILL END
HEAVIER PCPN IN THAT AREA TONIGHT. THERE IS SOME POSSIBILITY FOR
SOME CONVECTION TO DEVELOP IN THE DRY WEDGE... MAINLY TO OUR
SOUTH... BUT SOME ISOLATED THUNDER COULD GET UP INTO THE SOUTHERN
PART OF THE CWFA THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IN THE
NORTH... WHERE THE PERSISTENT MODERATE TO HEAVY PCPN IS EXPECTED
TO OCCUR... SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS STILL APPEAR
LIKELY... ALTHOUGH THEY MAY BE TEMPERED TO SOME DEGREE BY MIXING
WITH SLEET. STRONG MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS... AND COUPLING WITH
THE UPPER JET CIRCULATION... STILL APPEAR TO BE IN PLACE FOR A
TIME TONIGHT... ALONG WITH NEGATIVE EPV NEAR AND ABOVE THAT LAYER
OF FORCING. OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA... THAT INSTABILITY
IS UPRIGHT GIVEN NEGATIVE DIFFERENTIAL THETA-E WHICH WILL BE IN
PLACE... BUT AS YOU GO NORTH THINGS SUGGEST IT WOULD BE MORE
SYMMETRIC IN NATURE. THAT WOULD SUGGEST MORE OF A CELLULAR PCPN
LOOK ON THE SOUTH END OF THINGS AS THEY PUSH NORTH LATER
TONIGHT... WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF BANDING FARTHER NORTH.
PCPN WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER
TROUGH SLOWLY PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA AND ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE PERSISTS. SOME MIXED PCPN MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
MORNING OVER THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA... BUT BY LATE
MORNING ANY REMAINING PCPN SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW... WITH
SOME ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS STILL EXPECTED... PARTICULARLY OVER
THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST CWFA. VERY WEAK RIDGING LOOKS TO
WORK INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT... BRINGING AN END THE PCPN...
BUT A WEAK NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW
BACK INTO THE NORTHERN CWFA ON THURSDAY. THE NEXT FEATURE OF ANY
CONCERN STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE MOVING NEAR THE AREA ON
FRIDAY... BUT THE LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES THE IDEA OF KEEPING
THAT SYSTEM OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST. WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN
STREAM UPPER TROUGH STILL IN THE VICINITY THROUGH FRIDAY... AND
THE SOUTHERN WAVE PASSING BY TO OUR SOUTHEAST... DID CARRY SOME
LOW POPS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY... BUT AT THIS POINT IT
DOES NOT APPEAR IT WILL BE MUCH OF AN ISSUE FOR OUR AREA. THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOK TO BE MAINLY DRY... ALTHOUGH
THERE COULD BE SOME FLURRIES AROUND OVER THE WEEKEND WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW AND FAIRLY STEEP BOUNDARY LAYER LAPSE RATES IN PLACE. DIDN/T
INCLUDE MUCH IN THE WAY OF PCPN MENTION AT THIS POINT... BUT
WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED TO EVENTUALLY NEED TO INCLUDE SOME SNOW
SHOWERS AND/OR FLURRIES FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE START OF
NEXT WEEK SHOULD SEE A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP ACROSS THE AREA AS
HEIGHTS BUILD... AND 1000-500MB THICKNESS VALUES CLIMB WELL ABOVE
555DM. INCLUDED HIGHS OF NEAR 50 DEGREES BY TUESDAY... WHICH
CERTAINLY DOESN/T LOOK UNREASONABLE AT THIS POINT SHOULD THINGS
WARM AS SUGGESTED.
&&
.AVIATION.../00Z TAF ISSUANCE/
WITH THIS WARM SURGE...INCLUDED A MIX OF SLEET AND/OR RAIN IN ALL
THE TAFS. IFR CEILINGS LOOK LIKELY EVERYWHERE BY 00Z OR SO THIS
EVENING. THE VIS RESTRICTION MAY NOT BE ALL THAT BAD WITH THE
PRECIPITATION TYPE GOING FROM SNOW TO A MIX. LOCATIONS SUCH AS
KMSP...KRNH...KEAU...WILL SEE A SNOW/SLEET MIXTURE TRANSITION TO
SLEET/RAIN OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS...SO BY AROUND 00Z. THE SLEET
ACCUMULATION COULD CAUSE POTENTIAL PROBLEMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY THIS EVENING. KRWF...WILL BE NEARLY ALL RAIN FOR THE
NEXT 12-15 HOURS. THE PRECIP SHOULD CHANGE BACK OVER SNOW LATE
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.
KMSP...SNOW WILL BEGIN TO MIX WITH SLEET OVER THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS
AND THEN TRANSITION TO A SLEET AND RAIN MIXTURE EARLY THIS
EVENING. VIS WILL REMAIN VFR/MVFR...BUT CEILINGS WILL DROP TO IFR
BY THIS EVENING. SNOW CHANGE OVER BACK TO SNOW WILL BE SNOW
TONIGHT AND MIGHT BE CLOSE TO SUNRISE.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR BROWN-
CARVER-DAKOTA-GOODHUE-HENNEPIN-LE SUEUR-MCLEOD-NICOLLET-
REDWOOD-RENVILLE-RICE-SCOTT-SIBLEY-YELLOW MEDICINE.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR ANOKA-BENTON-
DOUGLAS-MORRISON-POPE-SHERBURNE-STEARNS-STEVENS-SWIFT-TODD.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST
WEDNESDAY FOR CHISAGO-ISANTI-KANABEC-MILLE LACS.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR RAMSEY-
WASHINGTON.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR CHIPPEWA-
KANDIYOHI-LAC QUI PARLE-MEEKER-WRIGHT.
WI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR CHIPPEWA.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST
WEDNESDAY FOR BARRON-POLK-RUSK.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR DUNN-EAU
CLAIRE-PEPIN-PIERCE-ST. CROIX.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
310 AM MST TUE FEB 28 2012
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND WED...
CLOUD TOPS COOLING RAPIDLY IN SE ID AND WY IN RESPONSE TO
ENERGETIC TROF BEGINNING TO LIFT OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES.
RADAR MOSAIC/SFC OBS INDICATE PCPN THROUGH RIW AND CPR...AND
WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF SHERIDAN. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS STRONGLY
DIFFLUENT SIGNATURE IN UT/CO PER 100+KT JET. ALSO OF NOTE IS WEAK
700MB LOW IN SE ID WHICH IS PRODUCING PCPN FROM PIH TO IDA AND
NEARLY WEY...AND WHICH WILL IMPACT OUR WEST LATER THIS MORNING.
SHERIDAN COUNTY AND OUR FAR SOUTHEAST WILL BE STRONGEST HIT IN OUR
AREA WITH THIS UPCOMING SYSTEM. FORCING/UPSLOPE FLOW WILL YIELD
SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE BIG
HORN MOUNTAINS TODAY. AS LOW DEEPENS TO OUR EAST...LOCATION OF
HEAVIER PCPN WILL SHIFT EAST OVER TIME AND IMPACT OUR FAR EAST
TONIGHT. SREF PLUMES/MIXING RATIOS AND EVEN MODEL QPF ARE ALL IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A GENERAL 3-6 INCH SNOWFALL FROM
SHERIDAN COUNTY TO POWDER RIVER AND CARTER COUNTIES TODAY AND
TONIGHT...AND HAVE ISSUED ADVISORIES FOR THESE AREAS. I-90 TRAVEL
IN SHERIDAN COUNTY WILL CERTAINLY BE IMPACTED BEGINNING EARLY
THIS MORNING...AS WILL HIGHWAY 212 FROM BROADUS TO ALZADA. AMOUNTS
WILL TAPER TO THE NW WITH MAINLY 1-3 AMOUNTS FROM SOUTHERN BIG
HORN...SOUTHERN ROSEBUD...SOUTHERN CUSTER AND FALLON COUNTIES.
WITHOUT ANY ADDITIONAL IMPACTS OTHER THAN DAYTIME SNOWFALL WILL
LEAVE THESE AREAS WITHOUT A HIGHLIGHT. IF LOW SLOWS A BIT THE
HIGHER TERRAIN IN THESE AREAS COULD SEE A BIT MORE SNOW...AND WILL
NEED TO WATCH THIS.
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS ALONG WITH RAPIDLY COOLING TOPS IN SE ID SEEM
TO INDICATE SOME UPSLOPE SNOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FOOTHILLS OF
THE BEARTOOTH ABSAROKAS THIS MORNING...AS DEEPENING EAST FLOW IS
BEGINNING TO MOISTEN UP ALREADY AS OF 10Z. HAVE RAISED POPS IN
THESE AREAS AND GIVEN THE NYE AND RED LODGE AREAS A COUPLE INCHES
OF SNOW...BEFORE DOWNSLOPING TAKES OVER LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
SHOULD EVEN SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW IN LIVINGSTON PER THE EAST WINDS.
AS FOR BILLINGS...THE ASCENT WILL BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT
SNOW BEGINNING AROUND 18Z...BUT THE QUESTION IS WHETHER THE LOW
LEVELS WILL MOISTEN UP ENOUGH AS NE FLOW WILL PROVIDE A FEED OF
DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER AIR. WILL FLIP A COIN AND GIVE BILLINGS A 50
POP TODAY. IF IT HAPPENS...THE BETTER CHANCE WILL BE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO PERHAPS THE EARLY EVENING...AND AMOUNTS SHOULD BE A
HALF INCH OR LESS.
SYSTEM WILL EXIT TO OUR EAST BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. DOWNSLOPE GRADIENTS
ACTUALLY TIGHTEN UP AFTER 06Z TONIGHT IN OUR WEST...SO EXPECT SOME
GUSTY SW WINDS TO DEVELOP AT LIVINGSTON AND NYE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE WARMER ACROSS THE AREA PER THE DOWNSLOPING AND
SHOULD SEE HIGHS INTO THE 40S EXPECT FOR OUR FAR EAST AND WHERE
FRESH SNOW COVER WILL BE. NEXT PACIFIC TROF IS MOVING IN RAPIDLY
THOUGH. EXPECT A GOOD DOSE OF SNOW FOR OUR WESTERN SLOPES
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE AIRMASS TURNS FAIRLY
UNSTABLE PER VERY COLD MID LEVEL TEMPS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN
TO SNOW SHOWERS WILL IMPACT OUR LOWER ELEVATIONS. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF THERE WERE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES AS MODELS SHOW A
BIT OF CAPE IN OUR WEST AROUND 00Z LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
JKL
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL BE OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY WITH A
SPLITTING TR0UGH MOVING ACROSS MONTANA. THE STRONGEST ENERGY WILL
STAY IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH AND WILL BRING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
TO THE FORECAST AREA. BEST LIFT AND Q VECTOR FORCING WILL BE OVER
OUR SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS AND HAVE RAISED POPS TO CATEGORICAL FOR
THE COOKE CITY AREA WITH SNOW AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES EXPECTED.
THIS IS WILL BE A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM AND AMOUNTS WILL STAY BELOW
WARNING CRITERIA FOR THE MOUNTAINS. SNOW AMOUNTS OVER THE PLAINS
WILL BE LESS THAN A INCH. UPPER FLOW WILL QUICKLY TRANSITION TO
AN UNSTABLE NORTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. CONTINUED A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD.
UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING DRY WEATHER AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES. SHOULD SEE UPPER 40S MONDAY WITH LOW 50S SUNDAY FOR
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO
PUSH ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. LOW AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE LOOKS LIMITED AT THIS TIME AND HAVE GONE WITH ONLY
ISOLATED POPS.
SURFACE PATTERN SETTING UP FOR POSSIBLE GUSTY WINDS IN THE GAP
FLOW AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. 700 MB WINDS INCREASING TO
60 KTS OVER OUR WESTERN ZONES. THESE STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS WILL
SHIFT OUT INTO THE PLAINS SATURDAY AND THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO
GUSTY WINDS FROM BILLINGS TO HARLOWTON. RICHMOND
&&
.AVIATION...
PATCHY FOG CAN BE EXPECTED EAST OF KBIL THROUGH MID MORNING. A
STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY AND
WILL SPREAD SNOW NORTHWARD. THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED FROM
KSHR NORTHEAST THROUGH EKALAKA. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED. SNOW WILL SPREAD INTO KLVM TO KBIL BY 18Z AND WILL
BRING OCCASIONAL MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
HEAVY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND TOTAL OBSCURATIONS WILL BE
ENCOUNTERED. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TONIGHT AS THE STORM SYSTEM
MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION. RICHMOND
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 031 021/045 025/038 020/038 025/043 030/049 029/051
5/S 31/N 24/J 22/J 22/W 20/N 01/B
LVM 033 023/040 021/033 014/034 017/037 025/044 025/045
6/S 13/W 45/J 32/J 22/J 21/N 11/N
HDN 028 013/043 024/039 021/038 023/043 028/049 026/051
6/S 41/B 23/J 22/J 22/W 20/B 01/B
MLS 026 012/040 022/037 020/034 021/040 027/045 027/050
3/S 30/B 22/J 22/J 22/J 20/B 01/B
4BQ 024 013/040 020/036 017/033 019/038 025/046 024/049
+/S 91/B 22/J 22/J 22/J 20/B 01/B
BHK 022 010/033 017/034 016/026 013/035 021/042 023/046
6/S 81/B 22/J 22/J 11/B 21/B 01/B
SHR 027 013/041 022/035 014/034 016/037 023/046 023/049
+/S 60/U 23/J 32/J 22/J 21/B 12/J
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM MST WEDNESDAY
FOR ZONES 36-37.
WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT
FOR ZONES 98-99.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
914 PM EST WED FEB 29 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE OVER IOWA WILL DRIFT EAST TO LAKE ONTARIO BY
THURSDAY MORNING...BEFORE REDEVELOPING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON
THURSDAY EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING MAINLY RAIN TO WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NEW YORK WITH MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO THE EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGION TONIGHT...WHICH WILL THEN TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
ON THURSDAY. EXPECT ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM TO AFFECT OUR REGION TOWARD
THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LANGUISHES ALONG THE IOWA/WISCONSIN STATE LINE
THIS AFTERNOON WITH AN EXTENSIVE WARM FRONT EASTWARD ACROSS AND
NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WARM FRONT
POSITION CROSSES OUR FORECAST AREA....DIVIDING WARMER AIR AND LIQUID
PRECIP TO THE SOUTH WITH COLDER AIR AND FROZEN/FREEZING PRECIP TO
THE NORTH.
THROUGH 800 PM...LOW PRESSURE ACROSS MICHIGAN WILL SLOWLY LIFT TO
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION OVERNIGHT. STEADY RAIN ASSOCIATED
WITH MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION HAS LIFTED TO FAR NORTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA...ROUGHLY NORTH AND EAST OF WATERTOWN. THIS
WILL EXIT NORTH IN AN HOUR OR TWO.
THE BIGGER ISSUE TONIGHT IS AN AREA OF CONVECTION WHICH HAS
DEVELOPED UPSTREAM. 12Z RUNS OF THE NAM/RGEM AND THE 22Z HRRR HAVE
CONSISTENTLY SHOWN SHOWERS EXPANDING AND LIFTING ACROSS WESTERN
NEW YORK BETWEEN 03Z AND 09Z...THEN EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. UNTIL
THE LAST HOUR...THERE WAS NOT MUCH ACTIVITY...BUT ON CUE SHOWERS
HAVE BLOSSOMED OUT AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROF ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
OHIO. THIS PROVIDES SOLID SUPPORT FOR MODEL GUIDANCE...AND
INCREASES FORECAST CONFIDENCE. ALSO...THESE SHOWERS ARE QUITE
IMPRESSIVE...WITH A SIGNIFICANT NUMBER OF LIGHTNING STRIKES BEING
GENERATED...MAINLY FROM ELEVATED CONVECTION. SOUNDINGS SUPPORT
ELEVATED CAPES TO AROUND 300 J/KG IN OUR CWA...DIMINISHING TO THE
NORTH AND EAST. STILL...BASED ON THIS...WILL ADD A MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WHILE OUR
REGION IS NOT THAT FAR FROM A MORE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT...WIND PROFILES DIMINISH SIGNIFICANTLY NORTH OF OH/PA...SO
DO NOT EXPECT ANY SEVERE WEATHER IN WESTERN NEW YORK DESPITE THE
CLOSE PROXIMITY. THE LINEAR NATURE OF SOME OF THE LINES SUGGEST
THERE MAY BE SOME DECENT DOWNPOURS LOCALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER.
AHEAD OF THIS...EXPECT AREAS OF FOG ACROSS WESTERN NEW
YORK...THOUGH THIS SHOULD LIFT AS THE SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH.
LINGERING SNOW EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO SHOULD TAPER OFF LATE THIS
EVENING...BUT WILL START AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AS MOISTURE LEFT OVER
FROM THE CONVECTION PUSHES EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. AIR ALOFT SHOULD
WARM...WITH A MIX OF RAIN...FREEZING RAIN...SLEET...AND SNOW ALL
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT. NO CHANGES IN HEADLINES AT THIS
TIME.
ADDITIONAL SNOW TONIGHT SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE BY NOW...WITH
PERHAPS 2 OR 3 INCHES IN FAR NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF
LEWIS COUNTY...WHERE PRECIPITATION HAS THE BEST CHANCE TO STAY ALL
SNOW. OTHERWISE...EXPECT GENERALLY A LIGHT ICING WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING. ONE CONCERN FOR LATE TONIGHT...IS IF
THE NE FLOW MAINTAINS DOWN THE ST LAWRENCE...IT MAY KEEP SURFACE
TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING WHEN STEADIER RAIN MOVES IN LATE
TONIGHT...WITH LOCALLY MORE SIGNIFICANT ICING IF THIS HAPPENS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
BROAD TROUGHINESS IN THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL BE FOUND OVER THE
UNITED STATES AND SOUTHERN CANADA AT THE START OF THIS PERIOD...BUT
AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND...THIS FLOW WILL BECOME MUCH MORE
AMPLIFIED. THE PATTERN CHANGE WILL COME AS A RESULT OF A
PARTICULARLY VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE THAT WILL MOVE FROM THE BEARING SEA
AND `DOWN THE CHUTE` ALONG THE WEST COAST TO THE INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION...WITH AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG (+3 STD) H25 JET DIGGING A
DEEPER TROUGH IN THE PROCESS. ADDITIONAL ENERGY POURING INTO THE
TROUGH WILL LEAD TO FURTHER AMPLIFICATION WHILE IT WILL PROGRESS
ACROSS THE COUNTRY. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY LEAD TO A CHANGE TO COLDER
WEATHER FOR THE GREAT LAKES REGION...BUT NOT UNTIL THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. TIME TO SCALE DOWN AND GET SOME DETAILS.
AS ONE SHORTWAVE EXITS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY NIGHT...MID LEVEL
RIDGING WILL TEMPORARILY BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT
LAKES WHILE A SFC HIGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE
THERE MAY BE SOME LEFTOVER RAIN AND WET SNOW SHOWERS EARLY (MAINLY
OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY)...INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND MID LEVEL DRYING
WILL PROVIDE THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA WITH PCPN FREE WEATHER.
THE SUBSEQUENT CLEARING WILL BE SLOW TO TAKE PLACE THOUGH...AS A
STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BE
INEFFECTIVE AT CLEARING OUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. BOTTOM LINE IS
THAT LITTLE IF ANY CLEARING IS EXPECTED FOR THE OVERNIGHT.
ON FRIDAY...WARM ADVECTION WILL QUICKLY SET UP OVER THE FORECAST
AREA AS THE EXITING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF THE ST LAWRENCE
WILL COMBINE WITH A DEEPENING SFC LOW OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TO
ESTABLISH A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS PROCESS WILL HELP TO
SCOUR OUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT IT WILL ALSO LEAD TO AN
INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE. IT WILL ESSENTIALLY BE A
RACE WITHIN THE PROCESS TO SEE IF ANY ONE AREA EXPERIENCES MUCH
SUNSHINE. EITHER WAY...VERY MILD CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND OVER THE
WESTERN COUNTIES AS NEAR SFC TEMPS SHOULD AT LEAST BE ABLE TO
MODERATE INTO THE MID AND UPPER 40S...IF NOT THE LOWER 50S. THE
WARMEST SITES WILL BE IN THE SRN TIER VALLEYS AND POSSIBLY THE
GENESEE VALLEY. THE NAM BASED MET GUIDANCE LOOKED UNREASONABLY
CHILLY...SO USED A BLEND OF THE MAV AND SREF BASED VALUES SITES EAST
OF LK ONTARIO WILL STAY CLOSER TO SEASONABLE LEVELS WITH READINGS
CLOSER TO 40.
THE ROBUST SHORTWAVE MENTIONED IN THE OPENING OF THIS SHORT TERM
DISCUSSION WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE PROGRESSIVE H5 TROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...HELPING TO FURTHER DEEPEN THE STRONG SFC LOW THAT WILL BE
LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE TWO MOST TRUSTED MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AT THIS POINT IN
THE EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THIS SFC LOW...BUT IN EITHER CASE A
NOTABLE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT BY TO THE WEST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA LATER FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. WILL NOT BORE YOU WITH THE
MODEL DIFFERENCES FROM THIS RANGE BUT TO SAY THAT THE RESULTING
WEATHER WILL BASICALLY COME DOWN TO PARTS OF THE REGION EXPERIENCING
ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS VERSUS POSSIBLE LOW END WARNING WINDS.
THE STRONG WINDS WILL COME IN TWO DISTINCT SHOTS. THE FIRST ROUND
WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH A 60-70KT LOW LEVEL
SOUTHERLY JET THAT WILL BE FOUND IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. THESE WINDS WILL POSE A THREAT ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF OUR FORECAST AREA...AND ALSO ALONG THE LAKE ERIE LAKESHORE WHERE
A FAVORABLE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL MAXIMIZE A
DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT. THE SECOND TIME FRAME OF CONCERN WILL BE IN
THE IMMEDIATELY WAKE OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY MORNING
WHEN STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND A TIGHT SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
PRODUCE A MORE BROAD BRUSH OF STRONG WINDS...MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN
COUNTIES AWAY FROM THE FINGER LAKES. DETAILS FOR EITHER THREAT WILL
BE WORKED OUT IN LATER PACKAGES AS CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK
OF THE SFC LOW INCREASES.
IN TERMS OF PCPN...NEAR 100M HGT FALLS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL COMBINE
WITH STRONG JET INDUCED LIFT FROM AN APPROACHING 150KT H25 JET AND
IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TO PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. BUFKIT NAM
OVERVIEWS SUGGEST IMPRESSIVE 200-500 J/KG`S WORTH OF ELEVATED
CAPE...AND GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE SYNOPTIC FORCING AND ASSOCIATED
WIND FIELDS...THIS SCENARIO WOULD CERTAINLY ENCOURAGE SOME GUSTY
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. WHILE THERE MAY BE SOME SHOWERS EARLY
THURSDAY NIGHT FROM THE ISENTROPIC LIFT...THE DEEPER CONVECTION
(STORMS) AND HEAVIER PCPN WILL LIKELY WAIT UNTIL LATER FRIDAY NIGHT
OR EVEN EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. AGAIN...THE DETAILS WILL HAVE TO BE
HAMMERED OUT IN LATER PACKAGES AS THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
IS DIRECTLY LINKED TO THE TRACK/STRENGTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC
LOW.
WHILE SATURDAY MAY OPEN UP WITH SOME GUSTY SHOWERS (ESP EAST OF LK
ONT)...THE DAY SHOULD BE LARGELY DRY AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH LOW LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE FOUND IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.
AGAIN...THE MAIN CONCERN FOR SATURDAY WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG WINDS. THIS THREAT WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK PRODUCT.
THE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE DURING WHAT SHOULD BE AN UNEVENTFUL SATURDAY
NIGHT AS THE BASE OF THE DIGGING H5 TROUGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY. H85 TEMPS WILL DROP TO ARND
-8 TO -10C BY DAYBREAK...AND WHILE THIS WOULD BE JUST BARELY COLD
ENOUGH TO INITIATE A LAKE RESPONSE...LOW LEVEL RIDGING AND A FAIR
AMOUNT OF MID LEVEL DRY AIR SHOULD DETER ANYTHING MORE THAN SOME
LAKE INDUCED CLOUDINESS EAST OF BOTH LAKES.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE DURING THIS PERIOD THAT NEAR TO BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN MODERATE TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS AS THE DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL GIVE
WAY TO A PROGRESSIVE RIDGE. NOT ONLY WILL SIGNIFICANT RIDGING BUILD
ALONG THE EAST COAST BY MID WEEK...BUT A DEEP PACIFIC BASED FLOW
WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE COUNTRY UP TO THIS POINT.
FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...THE BASE OF A DEEP H5 TROUGH WILL
CROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WHILE A SECONDARY SFC COLD FRONT WILL
DROP ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. THIS WILL ALLOW H85 TEMPS TO PLUNGE TO
BETWEEN -12 AND -16C...WITH SYNOPTICALLY INDUCED SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY
GIVING WAY TO SOME NUISANCE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT. I
SAY NUISANCE BECAUSE IT IS LIKELY THAT A CAPPING SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION WILL GREATLY LIMIT SNOW ACCUMS.
ON MONDAY...EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES
TO THE GULF WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE THE LOWERING
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL FURTHER CHOKE OFF ANY LAKE EFFECT...H85
TEMPS AVG -12C AND A WEAK NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL PROBABLY KEEP
A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AROUND AND POSSIBLY SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS. THIS WILL MAINLY BE THE CASE FOR SITES SOUTH OF LK
ONTARIO...WITH THE NORTH COUNTRY LIKELY HAVING THE BEST CHANCES OF
EXPERIENCING ANY SUNSHINE.
THE LARGE SFC HIGH WILL DRIFT EAST ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WHILE A
PROGRESSIVE RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO
TWO SUNNY DAYS ACROSS OUR REGION WITH A NOTICEABLE DAY TO DAY
WARMING TREND AS H85 TEMPS JUMP TO BETWEEN +4 AND +8C.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SLOWLY TRACK
FROM MICHIGAN TO EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION OVERNIGHT. A SHARP
INVERSION WILL SET UP OUT AHEAD OF THIS LOW...WITH THIS FORECAST
TO LOWER THIS EVENING. EXPECT MAINLY IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS AT
JHW/BUF/IAG/ROC IN THIS ENVIRONMENT...WITH A PERIOD OF 1/2SM OR
LOWER VSBY POSSIBLE. FOR NOW...SHOW LOWERING TREND IN TAFS...BUT
ONLY BRING JHW BELOW 1/2SM IN FOG. VSBY/CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE SOME AS
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROF MOVE THROUGH LATE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. AN ISOLATED STRIKE OF LIGHTNING IS POSSIBLE
AS THESE SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH IN ELEVATED INSTABILITY.
ITS A DIFFERENT STORY AT ART...WHERE LIGHT SNOW TRANSITIONING TO
MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACT. EXPECT LOWEST VSBY IN
SNOW EARLY THIS EVENING. THEN VSBY SHOULD IMPROVE AS PRECIPITATION
TAPERS AND MIXES...BUT CIGS MAY LOWER AS MOISTURE INCREASES.
EXPECT A MARGINAL IMPROVEMENT FOR THURSDAY...WITH MAINLY MVFR
CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS...AND IN CIGS.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...IFR TO MVFR WITH RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TAPERING OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST.
FRIDAY...GENERALLY VFR.
SATURDAY...MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN SHORES OF LAKE ONTARIO
WILL PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EVENING TO
EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A WARM FRONT REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE LAKE
ONTARIO BASIN. ONCE THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER PASSES BY LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...WINDS WILL QUICKLY VEER TO
SOUTHWEST AND PICK UP AGAIN...PARTICULARLY ON LAKE ERIE WHERE
ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES SHOULD EVENTUALLY BECOME NECESSARY.
&&
.CLIMATE...
A REMARKABLE MILD WINTER CONTINUED INTO FEBRUARY WITH MONTHLY
TEMPERATURES AVERAGING OVER 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR A 4TH
CONSECUTIVE MONTH. VERY FEW RECORD HIGHS WERE SET IN THIS 4 MONTH
STRETCH...RATHER JUST A PERSISTENT MILD PATTERN THROUGH THE WINTER.
FOR THE DECEMBER-JANUARY-FEBRUARY TIME FRAME THE LONGEST STRETCH OF
SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES WAS ONLY 4 DAYS FOR BOTH BUFFALO AND
ROCHESTER (JAN 18-21). NO OTHER STRETCH WAS LONGER THAN 2
DAYS...IMPRESSIVE CONSIDERING BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER AVERAGES 39
DAYS BELOW FREEZING IN THE DECEMBER THROUGH FEBRUARY TIMEFRAME.
FOR FEBRUARY BUFFALO HAD 25 DAYS REACHING OR EXCEEDING THE FREEZING
MARK...TIED WITH 1998 FOR GREATEST NUMBER OF DAYS IN THE MONTH OF
FEBRUARY REACHING OR EXCEEDING 32F. ROCHESTER HAD 25 SUCH DAYS AS
WELL...THE GREATEST EVER IN THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY.
WHILE BUFFALO HAD MINIMAL SNOW IN FEBRUARY WITH JUST 9.6 INCHES
FALLING...ROCHESTER DID FAIR BETTER UNDER SEVERAL LAKE EFFECT SNOW
BANDS WHICH HELPED BRING 26.8 INCHES OF SNOW TO THE ROCHESTER
AIRPORT FOR FEBRUARY. IN BUFFALO THE DJF SNOWFALL OF 34.2 INCHES IS
THE 4TH LOWEST SINCE THE MOVE TO THE AIRPORT...WITH 25.8 INCHES IN
THE WINTER OF 1947-48 HAVING THE LEAST TOTAL (25.8 INCHES).
DAYS WITH SNOW COVER WAS LACKING ACROSS THE REGION THIS WINTER.
BUFFALO HAD ONLY 22 DAYS IN DJF WITH AN INCH OR MORE OF SNOW ON THE
GROUND. THIS IS TIED FOR 4TH LOWEST IN 119 YEARS OF RECORD
KEEPING...AND 2ND LOWEST SINCE RECORD KEEPING MOVED TO THE AIRPORT.
THE LOWEST DJF DAYS WITH ONE INCH OR MORE OF SNOW ON THE GROUND ARE:
1931-32 (16) 1948-49 (18) AND 1936-37 (20). ROCHESTER ALSO HAD A
LACK OF DAYS WITH SNOW COVERING THE GROUND...ONLY 25 DAYS HAVING AT
LEAST AN INCH OF SNOW ON THE GROUND. IN 86 YEARS OF ROCHESTER RECORD
ONLY THE SEASON 1932-33 HAD A LOWER TOTAL...WITH 21 DAYS.
FOR THE ENTIRE WINTER SEASON (JULY-JUNE)...BUFFALO CAN FINISH NO
HIGHER THAN 3RD PLACE ALL-TIME FOR LACK OF SNOW...AND ROCHESTER
WHICH HAS FAIRED BETTER THIS WINTER CAN FINISH NO HIGHER THAN 10TH
PLACE. BELOW IS A TABLE FOR BUFFALO FOR LEAST SNOWIEST WINTERS.
RANK SEASON WINTER SNOWFALL
(INCHES)
1 1889-90 22.4
2 1918-19 25.0
3 1921-22 39.8
4 1948-49 40.1
5 1947-48 42.1
TO DATE SNOWFALL IN BUFFALO STANDS AT 34.2 INCHES.
FOR ROCHESTER WE WILL TAKE A LOOK AT YEARS SINCE 1950 SINCE WE ARE
LIKELY OUT OF THE RUNNING FOR A TOP TEN ALL-TIME LEAST AMOUNT OF SNOW.
RANK SEASON WINTER SNOWFALL (SINCE 1950)
(INCHES)
1 1952-53 41.7
2 1994-95 56.2
3 2001-02 58.1
4 1982-83 59.9
5 1961-62 65.6
TO DATE SNOWFALL IN ROCHESTER STANDS AT 52.0 INCHES.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LOZ042-043.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WCH
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/WCH
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...WCH
CLIMATE...THOMAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
822 PM EST WED FEB 29 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE OVER IOWA WILL DRIFT EAST TO LAKE ONTARIO BY
THURSDAY MORNING...BEFORE REDEVELOPING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON
THURSDAY EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING MAINLY RAIN TO WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NEW YORK WITH MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO THE EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGION TONIGHT...WHICH WILL THEN TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
ON THURSDAY. EXPECT ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM TO AFFECT OUR REGION TOWARD
THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LANGUISHES ALONG THE IOWA/WISCONSIN STATE LINE
THIS AFTERNOON WITH AN EXTENSIVE WARM FRONT EASTWARD ACROSS AND
NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WARM FRONT
POSITION CROSSES OUR FORECAST AREA....DIVIDING WARMER AIR AND LIQUID
PRECIP TO THE SOUTH WITH COLDER AIR AND FROZEN/FREEZING PRECIP TO
THE NORTH.
THROUGH 800 PM...LOW PRESSURE ACROSS MICHIGAN WILL SLOWLY LIFT TO
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION OVERNIGHT. STEADY RAIN ASSOCIATED
WITH MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION HAS LIFTED TO FAR NORTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA...ROUGHLY NORTH AND EAST OF WATERTOWN. THIS
WILL EXIT NORTH IN AN HOUR OR TWO.
THE BIGGER ISSUE TONIGHT IS AN AREA OF CONVECTION WHICH HAS
DEVELOPED UPSTREAM. 12Z RUNS OF THE NAM/RGEM AND THE 22Z HRRR HAVE
CONSISTENTLY SHOWN SHOWERS EXPANDING AND LIFTING ACROSS WESTERN
NEW YORK BETWEEN 03Z AND 09Z...THEN EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. UNTIL
THE LAST HOUR...THERE WAS NOT MUCH ACTIVITY...BUT ON CUE SHOWERS
HAVE BLOSSOMED OUT AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROF ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
OHIO. THIS PROVIDES SOLID SUPPORT FOR MODEL GUIDANCE...AND
INCREASES FORECAST CONFIDENCE. ALSO...THESE SHOWERS ARE QUITE
IMPRESSIVE...WITH A SIGNIFICANT NUMBER OF LIGHTNING STRIKES BEING
GENERATED...MAINLY FROM ELEVATED CONVECTION. SOUNDINGS SUPPORT
ELEVATED CAPES TO AROUND 300 J/KG IN OUR CWA...DIMINISHING TO THE
NORTH AND EAST. STILL...BASED ON THIS...WILL ADD A MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WHILE OUR
REGION IS NOT THAT FAR FROM A MORE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT...WIND PROFILES DIMINISH SIGNIFICANTLY NORTH OF OH/PA...SO
DO NOT EXPECT ANY SEVERE WEATHER IN WESTERN NEW YORK DESPITE THE
CLOSE PROXIMITY. THE LINEAR NATURE OF SOME OF THE LINES SUGGEST
THERE MAY BE SOME DECENT DOWNPOURS LOCALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER.
AHEAD OF THIS...EXPECT AREAS OF FOG ACROSS WESTERN NEW
YORK...THOUGH THIS SHOULD LIFT AS THE SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH.
LINGERING SNOW EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO SHOULD TAPER OFF LATE THIS
EVENING...BUT WILL START AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AS MOISTURE LEFT OVER
FROM THE CONVECTION PUSHES EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. AIR ALOFT SHOULD
WARM...WITH A MIX OF RAIN...FREEZING RAIN...SLEET...AND SNOW ALL
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT. NO CHANGES IN HEADLINES AT THIS
TIME.
ADDITIONAL SNOW TONIGHT SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE BY NOW...WITH
PERHAPS 2 OR 3 INCHES IN FAR NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF
LEWIS COUNTY...WHERE PRECIPITATION HAS THE BEST CHANCE TO STAY ALL
SNOW. OTHERWISE...EXPECT GENERALLY A LIGHT ICING WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING. ONE CONCERN FOR LATE TONIGHT...IS IF
THE NE FLOW MAINTAINS DOWN THE ST LAWRENCE...IT MAY KEEP SURFACE
TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING WHEN STEADIER RAIN MOVES IN LATE
TONIGHT...WITH LOCALLY MORE SIGNIFICANT ICING IF THIS HAPPENS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
BROAD TROUGHINESS IN THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL BE FOUND OVER THE
UNITED STATES AND SOUTHERN CANADA AT THE START OF THIS PERIOD...BUT
AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND...THIS FLOW WILL BECOME MUCH MORE
AMPLIFIED. THE PATTERN CHANGE WILL COME AS A RESULT OF A
PARTICULARLY VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE THAT WILL MOVE FROM THE BEARING SEA
AND `DOWN THE CHUTE` ALONG THE WEST COAST TO THE INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION...WITH AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG (+3 STD) H25 JET DIGGING A
DEEPER TROUGH IN THE PROCESS. ADDITIONAL ENERGY POURING INTO THE
TROUGH WILL LEAD TO FURTHER AMPLIFICATION WHILE IT WILL PROGRESS
ACROSS THE COUNTRY. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY LEAD TO A CHANGE TO COLDER
WEATHER FOR THE GREAT LAKES REGION...BUT NOT UNTIL THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. TIME TO SCALE DOWN AND GET SOME DETAILS.
AS ONE SHORTWAVE EXITS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY NIGHT...MID LEVEL
RIDGING WILL TEMPORARILY BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT
LAKES WHILE A SFC HIGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE
THERE MAY BE SOME LEFTOVER RAIN AND WET SNOW SHOWERS EARLY (MAINLY
OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY)...INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND MID LEVEL DRYING
WILL PROVIDE THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA WITH PCPN FREE WEATHER.
THE SUBSEQUENT CLEARING WILL BE SLOW TO TAKE PLACE THOUGH...AS A
STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BE
INEFFECTIVE AT CLEARING OUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. BOTTOM LINE IS
THAT LITTLE IF ANY CLEARING IS EXPECTED FOR THE OVERNIGHT.
ON FRIDAY...WARM ADVECTION WILL QUICKLY SET UP OVER THE FORECAST
AREA AS THE EXITING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF THE ST LAWRENCE
WILL COMBINE WITH A DEEPENING SFC LOW OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TO
ESTABLISH A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS PROCESS WILL HELP TO
SCOUR OUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT IT WILL ALSO LEAD TO AN
INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE. IT WILL ESSENTIALLY BE A
RACE WITHIN THE PROCESS TO SEE IF ANY ONE AREA EXPERIENCES MUCH
SUNSHINE. EITHER WAY...VERY MILD CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND OVER THE
WESTERN COUNTIES AS NEAR SFC TEMPS SHOULD AT LEAST BE ABLE TO
MODERATE INTO THE MID AND UPPER 40S...IF NOT THE LOWER 50S. THE
WARMEST SITES WILL BE IN THE SRN TIER VALLEYS AND POSSIBLY THE
GENESEE VALLEY. THE NAM BASED MET GUIDANCE LOOKED UNREASONABLY
CHILLY...SO USED A BLEND OF THE MAV AND SREF BASED VALUES SITES EAST
OF LK ONTARIO WILL STAY CLOSER TO SEASONABLE LEVELS WITH READINGS
CLOSER TO 40.
THE ROBUST SHORTWAVE MENTIONED IN THE OPENING OF THIS SHORT TERM
DISCUSSION WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE PROGRESSIVE H5 TROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...HELPING TO FURTHER DEEPEN THE STRONG SFC LOW THAT WILL BE
LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE TWO MOST TRUSTED MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AT THIS POINT IN
THE EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THIS SFC LOW...BUT IN EITHER CASE A
NOTABLE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT BY TO THE WEST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA LATER FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. WILL NOT BORE YOU WITH THE
MODEL DIFFERENCES FROM THIS RANGE BUT TO SAY THAT THE RESULTING
WEATHER WILL BASICALLY COME DOWN TO PARTS OF THE REGION EXPERIENCING
ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS VERSUS POSSIBLE LOW END WARNING WINDS.
THE STRONG WINDS WILL COME IN TWO DISTINCT SHOTS. THE FIRST ROUND
WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH A 60-70KT LOW LEVEL
SOUTHERLY JET THAT WILL BE FOUND IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. THESE WINDS WILL POSE A THREAT ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF OUR FORECAST AREA...AND ALSO ALONG THE LAKE ERIE LAKESHORE WHERE
A FAVORABLE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL MAXIMIZE A
DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT. THE SECOND TIME FRAME OF CONCERN WILL BE IN
THE IMMEDIATELY WAKE OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY MORNING
WHEN STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND A TIGHT SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
PRODUCE A MORE BROAD BRUSH OF STRONG WINDS...MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN
COUNTIES AWAY FROM THE FINGER LAKES. DETAILS FOR EITHER THREAT WILL
BE WORKED OUT IN LATER PACKAGES AS CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK
OF THE SFC LOW INCREASES.
IN TERMS OF PCPN...NEAR 100M HGT FALLS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL COMBINE
WITH STRONG JET INDUCED LIFT FROM AN APPROACHING 150KT H25 JET AND
IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TO PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. BUFKIT NAM
OVERVIEWS SUGGEST IMPRESSIVE 200-500 J/KG`S WORTH OF ELEVATED
CAPE...AND GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE SYNOPTIC FORCING AND ASSOCIATED
WIND FIELDS...THIS SCENARIO WOULD CERTAINLY ENCOURAGE SOME GUSTY
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. WHILE THERE MAY BE SOME SHOWERS EARLY
THURSDAY NIGHT FROM THE ISENTROPIC LIFT...THE DEEPER CONVECTION
(STORMS) AND HEAVIER PCPN WILL LIKELY WAIT UNTIL LATER FRIDAY NIGHT
OR EVEN EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. AGAIN...THE DETAILS WILL HAVE TO BE
HAMMERED OUT IN LATER PACKAGES AS THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
IS DIRECTLY LINKED TO THE TRACK/STRENGTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC
LOW.
WHILE SATURDAY MAY OPEN UP WITH SOME GUSTY SHOWERS (ESP EAST OF LK
ONT)...THE DAY SHOULD BE LARGELY DRY AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH LOW LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE FOUND IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.
AGAIN...THE MAIN CONCERN FOR SATURDAY WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG WINDS. THIS THREAT WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK PRODUCT.
THE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE DURING WHAT SHOULD BE AN UNEVENTFUL SATURDAY
NIGHT AS THE BASE OF THE DIGGING H5 TROUGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY. H85 TEMPS WILL DROP TO ARND
-8 TO -10C BY DAYBREAK...AND WHILE THIS WOULD BE JUST BARELY COLD
ENOUGH TO INITIATE A LAKE RESPONSE...LOW LEVEL RIDGING AND A FAIR
AMOUNT OF MID LEVEL DRY AIR SHOULD DETER ANYTHING MORE THAN SOME
LAKE INDUCED CLOUDINESS EAST OF BOTH LAKES.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE DURING THIS PERIOD THAT NEAR TO BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN MODERATE TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS AS THE DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL GIVE
WAY TO A PROGRESSIVE RIDGE. NOT ONLY WILL SIGNIFICANT RIDGING BUILD
ALONG THE EAST COAST BY MID WEEK...BUT A DEEP PACIFIC BASED FLOW
WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE COUNTRY UP TO THIS POINT.
FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...THE BASE OF A DEEP H5 TROUGH WILL
CROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WHILE A SECONDARY SFC COLD FRONT WILL
DROP ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. THIS WILL ALLOW H85 TEMPS TO PLUNGE TO
BETWEEN -12 AND -16C...WITH SYNOPTICALLY INDUCED SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY
GIVING WAY TO SOME NUISANCE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT. I
SAY NUISANCE BECAUSE IT IS LIKELY THAT A CAPPING SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION WILL GREATLY LIMIT SNOW ACCUMS.
ON MONDAY...EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES
TO THE GULF WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE THE LOWERING
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL FURTHER CHOKE OFF ANY LAKE EFFECT...H85
TEMPS AVG -12C AND A WEAK NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL PROBABLY KEEP
A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AROUND AND POSSIBLY SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS. THIS WILL MAINLY BE THE CASE FOR SITES SOUTH OF LK
ONTARIO...WITH THE NORTH COUNTRY LIKELY HAVING THE BEST CHANCES OF
EXPERIENCING ANY SUNSHINE.
THE LARGE SFC HIGH WILL DRIFT EAST ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WHILE A
PROGRESSIVE RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO
TWO SUNNY DAYS ACROSS OUR REGION WITH A NOTICEABLE DAY TO DAY
WARMING TREND AS H85 TEMPS JUMP TO BETWEEN +4 AND +8C.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SLOWLY TRACK
FROM MICHIGAN TO EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION OVERNIGHT. A SHARP
INVERSION WILL SET UP OUT AHEAD OF THIS LOW...WITH THIS FORECAST
TO LOWER THIS EVENING. EXPECT MAINLY IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS AT
JHW/BUF/IAG/ROC IN THIS ENVIRONMENT...WITH A PERIOD OF 1/2SM OR
LOWER VSBY POSSIBLE. FOR NOW...SHOW LOWERING TREND IN TAFS...BUT
ONLY BRING JHW BELOW 1/2SM IN FOG. VSBY/CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE SOME AS
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROF MOVE THROUGH LATE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. AN ISOLATED STRIKE OF LIGHTNING IS POSSIBLE
AS THESE SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH IN ELEVATED INSTABILITY.
ITS A DIFFERENT STORY AT ART...WHERE LIGHT SNOW TRANSITIONING TO
MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACT. EXPECT LOWEST VSBY IN
SNOW EARLY THIS EVENING. THEN VSBY SHOULD IMPROVE AS PRECIPITATION
TAPERS AND MIXES...BUT CIGS MAY LOWER AS MOISTURE INCREASES.
EXPECT A MARGINAL IMPROVEMENT FOR THURSDAY...WITH MAINLY MVFR
CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS...AND IN CIGS.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...IFR TO MVFR WITH RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TAPERING OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST.
FRIDAY...GENERALLY VFR.
SATURDAY...MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN SHORES OF LAKE ONTARIO
WILL PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EVENING TO
EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A WARM FRONT REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE LAKE
ONTARIO BASIN. ONCE THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER PASSES BY LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...WINDS WILL QUICKLY VEER TO
SOUTHWEST AND PICK UP AGAIN...PARTICULARLY ON LAKE ERIE WHERE
ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES SHOULD EVENTUALLY BECOME NECESSARY.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LOZ042-043.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WCH
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/WCH
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...WCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
430 AM CST TUE FEB 28 2012
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL FOCUS ON THE
IMPENDING STORM SET TO BRING SEVERE WINTER WEATHER TO MUCH OF THE
LOCAL REGION LATER TODAY...THROUGH TONIGHT...AND INTO WEDNESDAY. THE
00Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS A CONSENSUS...AND LEANED
HEAVILY ON A BLEND OF THEIR OUTPUT.
CURRENTLY...LOW LEVEL STRATUS BLOB...NOW OVER SOUTHWEST...WEST
CENTRAL...AND PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL ND...CONTINUES TO EXPAND
SLIGHTLY NORTH AND NOW IS INCREASING ITS EXPANSION EAST INTO MY
CENTRAL COUNTIES. WHILE THE NORTHWARD TREND IS EXPECTED TO SLOW
DOWN...THE EASTWARD EXPANSION OF THE STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THIS MORNING WITH AN INCREASING UPSLOPE FLOW COMPONENT OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL ND. AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPED WEST AS SFC WINDS WENT CALM
AND THANKS TO AN EAST/NORTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW REGIME.
WILL MAINTAIN AREAS OF FOG THROUGH 18Z WEST AND CENTRAL AND PATCHY
FOG EAST.
THE 00Z GFS/GEM/ECMWF HAVE ONCE AGAIN TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE ONSET
OF PRECIPITATION TODAY. WILL MAINTAIN THE EDITS MADE FOR THE EARLY
MORNING UPDATE. BASICALLY WE HAVE SLIGHT CHANCES FAR SOUTH ALONG THE
BORDER COUNTIES OF SOUTH DAKOTA 12-18Z THIS MORNING.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES THIS MORNING...THEN CLOSES OFF AND BECOMES
NEGATIVELY TILTED THIS AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN NB/WESTERN SD. AS THIS
OCCURS LEE SIDE CYCLOGENESIS RAMPS UP 12-18Z...WITH A COLORADO LOW
DEVELOPING AND LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS
AFTERNOON. LARGE SCALE ASCENT INCREASES ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
AFTER 18Z AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW ALONG WITH INCREASING THERMAL LIFT
AS THE SYSTEMS WARM CONVEYOR BELT/TROWAL DEVELOPS AND WRAPS BACK
WESTWARD ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA AND ACROSS MY SOUTHERN COUNTIES. WITH
MODELS SLOWING THINGS DOWN...FORCING NOW EXPANDS FARTHER NORTHWARD
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING THAN WHAT MODELS
HAD PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED. THE TROWAL AXIS AND DEFORMATION
ZONE...ADVERTISED BY THE GFS AND ECMWF...WILL BE COLOCATED AND IN
A FAVORABLE POSITION TO BRING HEAVY WRAP AROUND SNOW ACROSS MUCH
OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH TONIGHT...WINDING DOWN
GRADUALLY 12-18Z WED CENTRAL BUT STILL STRONG EAST. PRECIPITATION
REALLY STARTS TO WIND DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
WITH THE SLOW DOWN AND FARTHER NORTH TRACK...STORM TOTAL SNOW NOW
RANGES FROM 8-12 INCHES OVER ALMOST THE ENTIRE WARNED AREA (WINTER
STORM AND BLIZZARD). COULD VERY POSSIBLY SEE SNOW TOTALS IN EXCESS
OF A FOOT WITH ELEVATED INSTABILITY PRESENT ACROSS MY SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST (ADVERTISED BY THE HRRR MODEL AND BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS). IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY SNOW...BUFFER DATA CONTINUES
TO INDICATE WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 KTS (GREATER THAN 35 MPH)
TONIGHT OVER THE BLIZZARD WARNING AREA (FAR SOUTH CENTRAL AND
ACROSS MUCH OF THE JAMES RIVER BASIN) ONCE THE STORM LIFTS INTO
EASTERN SD AND EVENTUALLY INTO SOUTHERN MN. FREQUENT WIND GUSTS
GREATER THAN 35 MPH AND VIS OF 1/4 MILE IS BLIZZARD WARNING
CRITERIA. WILL HAVE NO PROBLEM SEEING VISIBILITIES OF 1/4 MILE AND
LESS. WE BELIEVE MODELS ARE UNDERESTIMATING THE WIND MAGNITUDES
GIVEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT DEPICTED AND BASED ON THE GEOSTROPHIC
SFC WINDS ADVERTISED. THUS BUMPED THE MODEL OUTPUT WINDS UP
SLIGHTLY.
THE HEADLINES INHERITED FROM MONDAYS DAYSHIFT ARE SPOT ON AND WILL
MAKE NO CHANGES WITH THIS MORNINGS FORECAST PACKAGE. WE WILL NEED TO
MONITOR THE 12Z MODEL TRENDS CLOSELY FOR A) POSSIBLE EXPANSION OF
THE WINTER STORM WARNING (NORTHWARD INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL AND B)
POSSIBLY UPGRADING PORTIONS OF THE WINTER STORM WARNING TO A
BLIZZARD WARNING.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
THE WINTER STORM SYSTEM SHOULD BE EXITING THE REGION TO THE EAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT MODELS ARE ALREADY DEPICTING A BROAD LONGWAVE
TROUGH DEVELOPING AND MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES BY THURSDAY. THIS
TROUGH WILL AFFECT THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. COOL CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT WILL SUPPORT A CHANCE OF SNOW...WITH THE FOCUS ON THE THURSDAY
TIME PERIOD. AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME.
FOLLOWING THIS UPPER TROUGH...THE MODELS INDICATE RIDGING BUILDING
ACROSS THE ROCKIES FOR THE WEEKEND. THERE IS A HINT THAT A
FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE IN THE UPPER FLOW MAY MOVE ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA AND THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE US ON MONDAY. KEPT A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW IN NORTHERN COUNTIES MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ON THE COOL SIDE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL OVER THE REGION. EXPECT LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO TEENS...AND HIGHS IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S. BUT SIGNIFICANT
WARMING IS INDICATED WITH THE BROAD H500 RIDGE INTO THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40 SUNDAY...AND
MID 30S TO LOWER 40S MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...AT 3 AM CST...DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER COLORADO AND
THE ASSOCIATED SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE LOW WERE BRINGING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
IFR/LOW IFR CEILINGS HAVE DEVELOPED AT KDIK AND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP OVER KBIS/KMOT BY
12Z/6 AM CST. MVFR TO IFR CIGS EXPECTED AT KJMS AFTER 15Z. THEN THE
DEVELOPING WINTER STORM OVER COLORADO WILL MOVE NORTHEAST BRINGING
IFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
AFTER 00Z...AT KBIS/KDIK/KJMS. MVFR AT KISN/KMOT AFTER 00Z.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM CST /2 PM MST/ THIS AFTERNOON
TO 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ WEDNESDAY FOR NDZ012-013-018-019-021-
031>033-040-043.
BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY
FOR NDZ037-045>048-050-051.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 PM CST /2 PM MST/ THIS AFTERNOON TO
6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ WEDNESDAY FOR NDZ020-022-023-025-034>036-041-
042-044.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM....WAA
AVIATION...WAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
1136 PM EST MON FEB 27 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST WILL QUICKLY BUILD EAST OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE EAST COAST BY LATE TUESDAY.
ANOTHER STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
TWEAKED CLOUD COVER AS CLOUDS OVER SE LOWER MICHIGAN BEGINNING TO
ERODE. TWEAKED OVERNIGHT LOWS DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
BIG ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE WINDS THIS EVENING IN
RESPONSE TO A RATHER TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS
QUICKLY BUILDING TOWARD THE AREA. HAVE EXPANDED THE WIND ADVISORY
ACROSS EASTERN COUNTIES WITH EXCEPTION FOR THE FAR SOUTH THROUGH
THIS EVENING. HRRR MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN HANDLING THE WINDS RATHER
WELL THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEY HAVE ADVISORY WIND GUSTS PUSHING
THROUGH NORTHEAST OHIO COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. WINDS
SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST ESPECIALLY AFTER SUNSET
TONIGHT. AFTER MIDNIGHT EXPECTING WINDS TO BE DOWN BELOW 10 MPH.
ASIDE FROM THAT A DRY AND MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT EXPECTED WITH TEMPS
DROPPING BACK TO THE LOWER TO MID 20S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING...THEN MOVING TO THE
EAST WILL ALLOW FOR A QUIET AND DRY WEATHER DAY WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. LATEST MODELS SEEM TO BE DELAYING THE ONSET OF THE
PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. WHILE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION EARLY ON...THINKING PERHAPS NOT TOWARD 06Z
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AREAS AND NOT UNTIL CLOSE TO 12Z WED FOR
PRECIP ACROSS NW PA. DO BRING UP POPS QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA
THOUGH AFTER 06Z. STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO PRECIP TYPE AT THE
ONSET ESPECIALLY FROM CLE-CAK NORTHEAST. ACROSS OH THINKING THAT
THERE MAY BE A RAIN/SNOW MIX WITH BEST CONFIDENCE OF ALL SNOW AT
THE ONSET FOR FAR NE OH AND NW PA. MODELS SHOWING LOWER LEVELS
WARMING UP ENOUGH BY 12Z WED THOUGH THAT MANY LOCATIONS WILL
SWITCH OVER TO RAIN.
MODELS LEANING TOWARD A MORE NORTHERN TRACK OF THE LOW CENTER
ALLOWING MUCH OF THE AREA TO GET WARM ON WED. LEFT THE HIGH POPS
AND MENTION OF THUNDER IN THE MORNING...BUT THEN CONCERNED ABOUT
DRY SLOT MOVING ESPECIALLY INTO WESTERN AREAS FOR THE AFTERNOON SO
REDUCED POPS AND CLOUDS A BIT ACROSS THE WEST. TEMPS WILL ALSO BE
TRICKIEST DURING WED SO FOR NOW USED A BLEND OF MAV AND MET
NUMBERS. CONCERNED MOST ABOUT NORTHERN AREAS WHICH MAY GET WARMER
THAN FORECAST. ALSO CONCERNED ABOUT WIND POTENTIAL ON WED
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST WHERE BETTER MIXING IS POSSIBLE.
LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH MUCH OF
THURSDAY WILL ALLOW FOR SOME RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS
NE OH AND NW PA THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IN
WILL DRY OUT THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ON FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY FRIDAY
EVENING. THIS WILL PROVIDE WARM CONDITIONS FOR THE REGION WITH HIGHS
INTO THE 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE FRIDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. SOME RAIN MAY LINGER
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. COOLER AIR WILL SPILL ACROSS THE LAKE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY AND COULD BE JUST COLD ENOUGH TO
PROVIDE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OFF OF LAKE ERIE. ANOTHER FAST MOVING
STORM SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MAY ENHANCE ANY
SNOW SHOWERS THAT ARE IN THE AREA.
SLIGHTLY COOLER ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 40S. EVEN
COOLER BY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH HIGHS AT MOST LOCATIONS WITHIN A
COUPLE DEGREES OF 40.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CEILINGS AROUND 3 KFT CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE TOLEDO AREA HOWEVER
THE DECK OF STRATUS HAS BEEN SHRINKING THROUGH THE EVENING. EXPECT
THIS TREND TO CONTINUE AND WILL BREAK UP AND CLEAR OUT THE TOL
TERMINAL AT 08Z. STRATUS DECK AROUND ERI LIKEWISE WILL DRIFT SOUTH
AND EAST AROUND 09Z. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUE TO BUILD IN
OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE DRIFTING EAST. TUESDAY
AFTERNOON HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AND LOWER AS
A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AFTER 09Z WEDNESDAY
BROUGHT MVFR RAIN INTO THE CLEVELAND.
OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF NON-VFR WILL RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE AT TIMES THROUGH THURSDAY. NON-VFR ALSO POSSIBLE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS LAKE ERIE THIS AFTERNOON IS RESPONSIBLE
FOR STRONG WESTERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS. WINDS ARE APPROACHING
GALE FORCE ON THE EAST END OF THE LAKE BUT SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW
GIVEN THAT THE COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT IS NOT THAT STRONG.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL NEARSHORE WATERS AND
WILL COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVERHEAD AND WINDS/WAVES QUICKLY DECREASE.
EASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING OUT OF THE PLAINS. WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
THE EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE LOW FROM WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY TO DETERMINE MOST LIKELY WINDOW OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ON THE EAST
END OF THE LAKE FOR THURSDAY BUT MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED TO THE
WEST.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LEZ144>149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ABE
NEAR TERM...ABE
SHORT TERM...ABE/DJB
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...KEC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
1129 AM CST TUE FEB 28 2012
.AVIATION...
EXPECT VARIABLE MVFR TO IFR CIGS TODAY AS A STORM SYSTEM LIFTS
NORTH OF THE REGION. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY EVEN AN
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM ARE EXPECTED FROM KPNC SOUTHWARD TO KOUN.
FURTHER WEST...A DRYLINE WILL MIX EASTWARD INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA
AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 45 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED BEHIND THE DRYLINE. WINDS WILL
REMAIN IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE AFTER SUNSET WITH GRADUALLY
CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 550 AM CST TUE FEB 28 2012/
AVIATION...
CEILINGS SHOULD SLOWLY LOWER THIS MORNING WITH BETTER
MOISTURE RETURN...SIMILAR TO CEILING HEIGHTS ACROSS
NORTH TEXAS AT 12Z. WEAK UPGLIDE MAY RESULT IN WIDELY
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH ROUGH 18-19Z. SOME
IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS WESTERN
OKLAHOMA DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON WITH
LOW MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. VERY STRONG
WINDS WILL DEVELOP NEAR GAG/WWR SITES AS DRYLINE PUSHES
THROUGH BY LATE AFTERNOON. BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR TSRA ALONG
I-35 WILL BE FROM 00-03Z.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM CST TUE FEB 28 2012/
DISCUSSION...
MOISTURE AND MODEST THERMAL ADVECTION THIS MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON SHOULD RESULT IN WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS WITH PERHAPS BETTER COVERAGE OUT WEST EARLY
THIS MORNING. 00Z NSSL WRF AND HRRR SIMILAR WITH BETTER CHANCES
FOR PRECIP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON LIFTING NORTH AND EAST OF FA.
BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...A DRYLINE WILL MIX INTO FAR WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND THE ADJACENT AREA OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. DEEP MIXING
BEHIND THE DRYLINE SHOULD CREATE MODERATE TO HIGH END RED FLAG
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. NEAR/JUST
ABOVE SEVERE WIND GUSTS MAY OCCUR FOR A FEW HOURS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. CONSIDERED A HIGH WIND
WARNING FOR 3 OR 4 COUNTIES BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP THIS AREA IN A
WIND ADVISORY.
STORM CHANCES WITH THIS SYSTEM APPEAR TO BE LIMITED...AT LEAST IN
COVERAGE. THE NSSL WRF ATTEMPTS INITIATION NEAR THE DRYLINE LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON WITH PERHAPS A BETTER CHANCE ACROSS EASTERN PARTS
OF THE FA DURING THE EARLY TO MID EVENING. ANY STORM THAT CAN
REALIZE BETTER INSTABILITY...WILL POSE A RISK OF PRODUCING
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
ANOTHER TROUGH/SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER WARM THURSDAY WITH
INCREASING WINDS...HUMIDITY LEVELS MAY REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH MOST
AREAS TO ALLEVIATE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH
A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE BEST
OPPORTUNITY FOR STORMS WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME COOLER AIR FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND
BUT TEMPERATURES WILL WARM AGAIN GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER
SYSTEM MAY HELP INCREASE RAIN/STORM CHANCES NEXT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 68 39 70 38 / 50 20 0 0
HOBART OK 70 38 68 36 / 50 10 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 77 42 74 40 / 30 20 0 10
GAGE OK 71 33 66 30 / 50 10 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 69 37 66 38 / 60 30 10 0
DURANT OK 68 51 73 44 / 30 40 10 10
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR OKZ004>006-009>011-
014>016-021-022-033>036.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR OKZ004-005-009-
010-014-021-033-034-036.
TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ083-084-087.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ083-084-087.
&&
$$
02/84
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
550 AM CST TUE FEB 28 2012
.AVIATION...
CEILINGS SHOULD SLOWLY LOWER THIS MORNING WITH BETTER
MOISTURE RETURN...SIMILAR TO CEILING HEIGHTS ACROSS
NORTH TEXAS AT 12Z. WEAK UPGLIDE MAY RESULT IN WIDELY
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH ROUGH 18-19Z. SOME
IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS WESTERN
OKLAHOMA DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON WITH
LOW MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. VERY STRONG
WINDS WILL DEVELOP NEAR GAG/WWR SITES AS DRYLINE PUSHES
THROUGH BY LATE AFTERNOON. BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR TSRA ALONG
I-35 WILL BE FROM 00-03Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM CST TUE FEB 28 2012/
DISCUSSION...
MOISTURE AND MODEST THERMAL ADVECTION THIS MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON SHOULD RESULT IN WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS WITH PERHAPS BETTER COVERAGE OUT WEST EARLY
THIS MORNING. 00Z NSSL WRF AND HRRR SIMILAR WITH BETTER CHANCES
FOR PRECIP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON LIFTING NORTH AND EAST OF FA.
BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...A DRYLINE WILL MIX INTO FAR WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND THE ADJACENT AREA OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. DEEP MIXING
BEHIND THE DRYLINE SHOULD CREATE MODERATE TO HIGH END RED FLAG
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. NEAR/JUST
ABOVE SEVERE WIND GUSTS MAY OCCUR FOR A FEW HOURS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. CONSIDERED A HIGH WIND
WARNING FOR 3 OR 4 COUNTIES BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP THIS AREA IN A
WIND ADVISORY.
STORM CHANCES WITH THIS SYSTEM APPEAR TO BE LIMITED...AT LEAST IN
COVERAGE. THE NSSL WRF ATTEMPTS INITIATION NEAR THE DRYLINE LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON WITH PERHAPS A BETTER CHANCE ACROSS EASTERN PARTS
OF THE FA DURING THE EARLY TO MID EVENING. ANY STORM THAT CAN
REALIZE BETTER INSTABILITY...WILL POSE A RISK OF PRODUCING
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
ANOTHER TROUGH/SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER WARM THURSDAY WITH
INCREASING WINDS...HUMIDITY LEVELS MAY REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH MOST
AREAS TO ALLEVIATE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH
A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE BEST
OPPORTUNITY FOR STORMS WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME COOLER AIR FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND
BUT TEMPERATURES WILL WARM AGAIN GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER
SYSTEM MAY HELP INCREASE RAIN/STORM CHANCES NEXT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 68 39 70 38 / 50 20 0 0
HOBART OK 70 38 68 36 / 50 10 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 77 42 74 40 / 30 20 0 10
GAGE OK 71 33 66 30 / 50 10 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 69 37 66 38 / 60 30 10 0
DURANT OK 68 51 73 44 / 30 40 10 10
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CST THIS EVENING
FOR OKZ004>006-009>011-014>016-021-022-033>036.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CST THIS
EVENING FOR OKZ004-005-009-010-014-021-033-034-036.
TX...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CST THIS EVENING
FOR TXZ083-084-087.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CST THIS
EVENING FOR TXZ083-084-087.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
406 AM CST TUE FEB 28 2012
.DISCUSSION...
MOISTURE AND MODEST THERMAL ADVECTION THIS MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON SHOULD RESULT IN WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS WITH PERHAPS BETTER COVERAGE OUT WEST EARLY
THIS MORNING. 00Z NSSL WRF AND HRRR SIMILAR WITH BETTER CHANCES
FOR PRECIP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON LIFTING NORTH AND EAST OF FA.
BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...A DRYLINE WILL MIX INTO FAR WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND THE ADJACENT AREA OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. DEEP MIXING
BEHIND THE DRYLINE SHOULD CREATE MODERATE TO HIGH END RED FLAG
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. NEAR/JUST
ABOVE SEVERE WIND GUSTS MAY OCCUR FOR A FEW HOURS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. CONSIDERED A HIGH WIND
WARNING FOR 3 OR 4 COUNTIES BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP THIS AREA IN A
WIND ADVISORY.
STORM CHANCES WITH THIS SYSTEM APPEAR TO BE LIMITED...AT LEAST IN
COVERAGE. THE NSSL WRF ATTEMPTS INITIATION NEAR THE DRYLINE LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON WITH PERHAPS A BETTER CHANCE ACROSS EASTERN PARTS
OF THE FA DURING THE EARLY TO MID EVENING. ANY STORM THAT CAN
REALIZE BETTER INSTABILITY...WILL POSE A RISK OF PRODUCING
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
ANOTHER TROUGH/SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER WARM THURSDAY WITH
INCREASING WINDS...HUMIDITY LEVELS MAY REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH MOST
AREAS TO ALLEVIATE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH
A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE BEST
OPPORTUNITY FOR STORMS WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME COOLER AIR FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND
BUT TEMPERATURES WILL WARM AGAIN GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER
SYSTEM MAY HELP INCREASE RAIN/STORM CHANCES NEXT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 68 39 70 38 / 50 20 0 0
HOBART OK 70 38 68 36 / 50 10 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 77 42 74 40 / 30 20 0 10
GAGE OK 71 33 66 30 / 50 10 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 69 37 66 38 / 60 30 10 0
DURANT OK 68 51 73 44 / 30 40 10 10
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CST THIS EVENING
FOR OKZ004>006-009>011-014>016-021-022-033>036.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CST THIS
EVENING FOR OKZ004-005-009-010-014-021-033-034-036.
TX...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CST THIS EVENING
FOR TXZ083-084-087.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CST THIS
EVENING FOR TXZ083-084-087.
&&
$$
01/01
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
1128 PM CST MON FEB 27 2012
.AVIATION...
LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES NOW APPEAR THAT THEY WILL HOLD OFF
UNTIL ABOUT 12-15Z TOMORROW...EXCEPT ALONG THE W BORDER OF
OK...WHERE THE DETERIORATION OF CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR EARLIER. SCT
PATCHES OF -RA/-DZ MAY ALSO CAUSE BRIEF DROPS IN
CEILING/VISIBILITY OVERNIGHT. MORE SOLIDLY IFR TO LOW MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM 12Z TO 21Z. AFTER 21Z...THE DRY LINE
WILL ADVANCE E...POSSIBLY HELPING TO SET OFF SOME TSRA IN C AND E
OK. CLEARING CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW THE DRY LINE AS IT ADVANCES
FAIRLY QUICKLY E IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 906 PM CST MON FEB 27 2012/
DISCUSSION...
DEW POINT TEMPERATURES WERE RAISED SLIGHT IN LINE WITH TRENDS AND
THE RUC FORECAST OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGES ARE
NECESSARY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE SLOWLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
HALF OF OKLAHOMA TO THE SOUTH OF A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT. LIGHT
RAIN THAT IS OCCURRING IN THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL LIKELY
ALSO DEVELOP FARTHER EAST WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL WINDS OVER THE FRONT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 51 65 39 69 / 40 70 20 0
HOBART OK 51 71 38 67 / 60 60 10 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 55 76 42 71 / 60 50 20 0
GAGE OK 45 69 33 65 / 60 60 10 0
PONCA CITY OK 50 65 37 62 / 40 70 30 10
DURANT OK 52 68 51 72 / 30 40 40 10
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR OKZ004-005-009-010-014>016-021-022-033>037.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM CST TUESDAY FOR OKZ004>006-
009>011-014>016-021-022-033>036.
TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR TXZ083>085-087-088.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM CST TUESDAY FOR TXZ083-084-087.
&&
$$
09/23/23
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
715 PM CST WED FEB 29 2012
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW OCCLUDED LOW
PRESSURE NOW ENTERING SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON.
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS MAIN CIRCULATION HAS BEEN BLOSSOMING ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON...WITH VSBYS DROPPING
TO 3/4SM IN LIGHT SNOW FROM WISCONSIN RAPIDS TO WAUSAU.
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS HAVE WARMED INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S
OVER THE FOX VALLEY...BAYSHORE...AND LAKESHORE...WHERE PRECIP HAS
BEEN MAINLY RAIN AND DRIZZLE THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE LOW TRACKS
ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS EVENING...PRECIP TYPE AND
ACCUMULATIONS ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.
TONIGHT...OCCLUDED LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ENE ACROSS CENTRAL
WISCONSIN THIS EVENING. WILL NO LONGER BE FEELING THE EFFECTS OF
THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT...BUT MOISTURE WRAPPING ALL THE WAY AROUND
INTO THE COMMA HEAD WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CONTINUING
FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING. THE HEAVIEST PRECIP SHOULD FALL WITHIN AND
ON THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER WHICH SHOULD RUN
FROM ABOUT MARSHFIELD TO DOOR COUNTY. BECAUSE COLDER AIR TO -6C AT
850MB WILL FILTER ACROSS NORTHEAST WISCONSIN...PRECIPITATION TYPE
WILL CHANGE TO ALL SNOW...EVEN NEXT TO THE LAKESHORE. AN ADDITIONAL
INCH OR TWO OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE NORTHWEST OF THE FOX VALLEY AND
BAY SHORE AND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THIS EVENING WHERE
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 31-34 DEGREE RANGE. ABOVE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES WILL INITIALLY LIMIT ACCUMS OVER EAST-CENTRAL AND FAR
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN...BUT THOSE LOCATIONS COULD STILL SEE A HALF
INCH TO AN INCH AS TEMPS FALL THIS EVENING. BECAUSE OF THE
POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW WHICH COULD LEAD TO
RENEWED TRAVEL WOES...WILL LEAVE WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES ALONE.
SNOW WILL BE PUSHING ON TO THE EAST BY LATE IN THE EVENING LEAVING
CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILING ACROSS THE REGION. PLENTY OF FLURRY
ACTIVITY EXISTING ALL THE WAY TO WESTERN MINNESOTA...SO WILL HAVE TO
LEAVE A MENTION THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. LOW TEMPS RANGING
FROM THE MID 20S WEST TO AROUND 30 EAST.
THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE EAST TO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES. CYCLONIC FLOW WILL HANG AROUND FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING...SO
FIGURE SKY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN CLOUDY. SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
ARE LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON WHEN THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THINS OUT
AND THE FLOW BECOMES LIGHT AND WESTERLY. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO
AROUND 40F.
.LONG TERM...THU NGT THRU NXT WED. MDLS HAVE COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO A BROAD LONGWAVE TROF PUSHING ACROSS THE
CONUS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. STILL WATCHING
A SYSTEM PRECEDING THIS TROF WHICH COULD BRING A MIX OF PCPN TYPES
TO NE WI ON FRI. MEAN FLOW TENDS TO FLATTEN BY EARLY NXT WEEK
ALLOWING FOR MILD PACIFIC AIR TO RUSH ACROSS THE CONUS. DEPENDING
ON THE AMOUNT OF SNOW STILL ON THE GROUND...SOME PARTS OF CNTRL/
E-CNTRL WI COULD PUSH THE 50 DEG MARK BY TUE BEFORE THE NXT CDFNT
ARRIVES WITH THE NXT CHC OF PCPN.
THE LONGWAVE TROF MOVES THRU THE ROCKIES THU NGT AND ENTERS THE
PLAINS TOWARD DAYBREAK. AS THIS OCCURS...A SFC LOW IS FCST TO DVLP
OVER THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS AND MOVE NE TOWARD THE OZARKS/MO VALLEY
AREA. WAA TO OVERSPREAD WI WITH ENUF MSTR EVIDENT TO BRING PCPN
INTO PARTS OF THE FCST AFTER MIDNGT. TEMPS WOULD BE COLD ENUF SUCH
THAT ANY PCPN WOULD BE SNOW...BUT ANY ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE VERY
MINOR.
QSTNS REMAIN AS TO THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SFC LOW AS IT HEADS NE
TOWARD SRN SECTIONS OF THE GREAT LKS ON FRI. THE NAM REMAINS A
WESTWARD TRACK OUTLIER PRIMARILY DUE TO TRYING TO PHASE A NRN
PIECE OF SHORTWAVE TROF WITH THE SFC LOW. THE GEM MODEL TRACKS THE
SFC LOW NEWD INTO SW/CNTRL SECTIONS OF LWR MI...WHILE THE GFS/UKMET/
ECMWF NOW ALL PREFER A MORE ERN ROUTE AND TAKE THE LOW PRES TOWARD
NE INDIANA/SE LWR MI. SINCE THIS SYSTEM IS JUST COMING ASHORE TODAY
(WED)...TRACK WL LIKELY WAFFLE A BIT MORE BEFORE SETTLING DOWN...
THUS HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE MORE CONSISTENT GFS/UKMET/ECMWF WHICH
WOULD BRING AN INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION TO NE WI. HAVE RAISED
POPS TO LIKELY FOR ALMOST THE ENTIRE FCST AERA AND GONE MORE SNOW
THAN RAIN FOR ERN WI.
SNOW CHCS TO CONT THRU AT LEAST FRI EVENING BEFORE TAPERING OFF
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS THE SFC LOW MOVES INTO SE ONTARIO. COULD
SEE AN ADDL INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION...MAINLY ACROSS THE NRN
WI. SYSTEM CONTS TO LIFT NE TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON SAT
WITH A TRAILING SHORTWAVE TROF/EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES STILL MOVING
THRU WI. WL NEED TO CARRY SOME SNOW SHWR ACTIVITY THRU THE DAY
WITH THE BETTER CHCS ACROSS THE NORTH AS WINDS TURN W-NW WITH SOME
PSBL LK ENHANCEMENT. TEMPS TO CONT A DOWNWARD TREND WITH HI TEMPS
GENERALLY IN THE 30-35 DEG RANGE.
THE LONGWAVE TROF IS THEN EXPECTED TO MVOE THRU THE RGN SAT NGT
INTO SUNDAY WITH VARIOUS PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING SE IN
THE NW FLOW ALOFT. NE WI ALSO RESIDE UNDER THE FAVORABLE LEFT EXIT
RGN OF THE UPR JET FOR ADDED LIFT. EXPECT TO SEE AT LEAST ISOLATED
SNOW SHWRS ACROSS THE FCST AREA BOTH SAT NGT AND SUNDAY WITH A
MINOR ACCUMULATION PSBL WHERE ANY SNOW SHWRS BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED.
SUNDAY ALSO LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED FCST WITH
MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 25-30 DEG RANGE. A WEAK AREA OF HI PRES IS
THEN FCST TO BUILD ACROSS THE WRN GREAT LKS RGN SUNDAY NGT AND
RESIDE TO OUR EAST ON MON. ANY LINGERING SNOW SHWRS SHOULD END
RATHER QUICKLY WITH WINDS BACKING TO THE S-SW BY MON ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE HI PRES. COOL START TO MON WL LIMIT AMOUNT OF
DIURNAL WARMING EVEN AS A SURGE OF WARMER AIR ALOFT PUSHES INTO
THE STATE.
INCREASING S-SW WINDS MON NGT WL SEND A WRMFNT NWD WITH MUCH
MILDER AIR STREAMING INTO NE WI. A NEW...BROAD UPR TROF IS PROGGED
TO MOVE INTO THE CNTRL CONUS ON TUE AND HELP PUSH A CDFNT ACROSS
THE UPR MIDWEST. MOST OF THE FORCING/LIFT APRS TO BE BEHIND THE
FNT...THUS HAVE KEPT TUE DRY AND MILD WITH MAX TEMPS SURPASSING
THE 40 DEG MARK. IF CLOUDS CAN STAY AWAY LONG ENUF...PARTS OF
CNTRL/E-CNTRL WI COULD REACH 50 DEGS. THE CDFNT PUSHES THRU WI TUE
NGT AND THEN THE MDLS DVLP SEVERAL WAVES ALONG THE FNT WHICH WOULD
HELP FOCUS PCPN ACROSS THE FCST AREA ON WED. BASED ON PROJECTED
LOCATION OF THE CDFNT AND SFC WAVES...HAVE GONE WITH A HI CHC POP
FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF NE WI. ANOTHER PBLM WL BE PCPN TYPE AS
COOLER AIR TO SETTLE OVER THE NW HALF OF WI. HAVE GONE WITH A
RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR N-CNTRL WI...BUT KEPT PCPN AS ALL RAIN IN THE
CENTRAL AND EAST.
&&
.AVIATION...CIGS AND VSBYS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MVFR OR IFR
OVERNIGHT AS SNOW SHOWERS COME TO AN END.
RDM
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
647 PM CST WED FEB 29 2012
.SHORT TERM...
647 PM CST WED FEB 29 2012
MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION THAT OCCURRED THIS AFTERNOON HAS EITHER
DIMINISHED OR SHIFTED OFF TO THE EAST. THE EASTWARD SHIFT IS A
RESULT OF THE UPPER LOW NOW OVER EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN PER 00Z
WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC ANALYSIS. THE REST OF THE DIMINISHING
PRECIPITATION IS MOST LIKELY DUE TO A COMBINATION OF THE ENTIRE
SYSTEM FILLING...AS WELL AS THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING REDUCING
INSTABILITY FROM THE COLD AIR CORE WITH THE UPPER LOW. STILL
CANNOT RULE OUT A LITTLE DRIZZLE OR LIGHT SNOW MAINLY SOUTH OF
I-90 WHERE A DEFORMATION ZONE IS DISSIPATING...BUT ONLY KEPT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THERE AT 20 PERCENT. IT IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE
NOTHING HAPPENS. ALSO...HAVE EXPERIENCED SOME FOG UP AT OUR OFFICE
ON THE LA CROSSE RIDGE. THIS FOG APPEARS TO HAVE FORMED FROM
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS. WITH THE SURFACE LOW
NEAR WISCONSIN DELLS AND SHIFTING EAST...A NORTHWEST BREEZE WILL
PICK UP. THIS BREEZE SHOULD HELP TO IMPROVE VISIBILITIES ON RIDGE
TOPS WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ADDED THIS FOG MENTION TO THE
FORECAST.
HAVE LET ALL HAZARDS EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED FOR 6 PM. NEXT FOCUS FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SEE PREVIOUS
SHORT TERM DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS.
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
353 PM CST WED FEB 29 2012
ON TUESDAY...THE 29.12Z MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT THERE WILL BE
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. BOTH THE ECMWF ARE SUGGESTING THAT TEMPERATURES
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR WILL CLIMB INTO THE
50S. WHILE THESE TEMPERATURES LOOK REASONABLE...THERE IS SOME
CONCERN ON HOW WARM TEMPERATURES WILL GET ACROSS THE AREAS WHICH
RECEIVED THE DEEP SNOW PACK LAST NIGHT. THE ALL BLEND AND CONS
BLEND WOULD SUGGEST TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S. HOWEVER THIS
LOOKS TO BE TOO WARM WITH MUCH SNOW ON THE GROUND...SO COOLED THE
TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE LOWER AND MID 40S.
&&
.AVIATION...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
541 PM CST WED FEB 29 2012
THE MAIN AVIATION FORECAST CONCERN IS CEILINGS. STRATUS ENCOMPASSES
MUCH OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY REGION...INCLUDING THE TAF SITES. BOTH TAF SITES ARE
SITTING AT MVFR. THINKING THAT WITH NIGHTTIME COOLING...KRST WILL
DROP TO IFR AROUND 02Z WHILE KLSE COULD BRIEFLY DROP BETWEEN NOW
AND 03Z. A PERSISTENT NORTHWEST BREEZE SHOULD PREVENT CEILINGS
FROM DROPPING ANY LOWER...AND IN FACT COULD KEEP KRST AT MVFR
THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS IS SOMETHING THAT WILL BE MONITORED...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO KEEP KRST AT MVFR GIVEN RECENT
RAIN AND IFR CEILINGS UPSTREAM AT TOB AND AUM. DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY...WE SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT IN THE CEILINGS AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN...ALONG WITH DAYTIME MIXING HELPING OUT.
STILL...ONLY HAVE CEILINGS REACHING 2000-2500 FT. THERE IS A SLIM
POSSIBILITY KRST COULD EVEN SCATTER OUT AROUND 21Z.
REGARDING VISIBILITIES...MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION IS DONE AND
WITH A PERSISTENT NORTHWEST BREEZE TONIGHT...ANTICIPATING THEM TO
STAY MOSTLY VFR. KLSE COULD STILL EXPERIENCE SOME MVFR
VISIBILITIES UNTIL 03Z DUE TO LIGHTER WINDS OCCURRING BEING CLOSE
TO THE SURFACE LOW.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
353 PM CST WED FEB 29 2012
A GOOD DEAL OF PRECIPITATION FELL LAST NIGHT AS THE MAIN SURGE OF
MOIST AIR ARRIVED. MORNING PRECIPITATION REPORTS INDICATE BETWEEN A
HALF-INCH AND THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA AND
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. SOME MINOR WITHIN BANK RISES ON TRIBUTARY
CREEKS AND RIVERS HAS OCCURRED.
FROM SOUTHEAST MN INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WI...AMOUNTS WERE HIGHER
WITH WIDESPREAD REPORTS BETWEEN 1 AND 1.5 INCHES. SOME SPOTS SAW
JUST OVER 1.75 INCHES OF WATER. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS WERE SEEN FROM
THE ZUMBRO AND WHITEWATER WATERSHEDS...INTO THE TREMPEALEAU AND
BLACK RIVER BASINS. SIGNIFICANT RISES ARE OCCURING IN THESE RIVER
SYSTEMS...WITH SOME SPOTS GETTING CLOSE TO BANKFULL AND FLOOD STAGE.
CURRENTLY...THE SYSTEM IS SPINNING OVERHEAD...DROPPING MORE SNOW AND
DRIZZLE. THIS SHOULD NOT AMOUNT TO A GREAT DEAL MORE WATER CONTENT.
SO THE FEELING IS WE WILL SEE THE MAJORITY OF RIVERS PEAK AND FALL
TONIGHT...IF THEY HAVE NOT ALREADY DONE SO.
THIS RAINFALL ON THE FROZEN SOIL ALSO LED TO WIDESPREAD PONDING OF
WATER...AS IT COULD NOT SOAK IN.
THE STORM DROPPED OVER 15 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE UPPER BLACK
RIVER BASIN...SO AS THIS MELTS...EXPECT THE BLACK TO CONTINUE
RUNNING HIGHER THAN NORMAL INTO NEXT WEEK.
WE ARE ALSO MONITORING THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK. ANY ADDITIONAL WATER COULD LEAD TO RENEWED RISES.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
647 PM CST WED FEB 29 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...AJ
HYDROLOGY...WELVAERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
221 PM CST TUE FEB 28 2012
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES LOW
PRESSURE EMERGING FROM THE ROCKIES INTO WESTERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH ALONG THE KS/NE BORDER AND
ACROSS MISSOURI. CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ALREADY AHEAD OF THE LOW
JUST AHEAD OF A POTENT DRY SLOT PUNCHING INTO NEBRASKA. CLOSER TO
HOME...LEADING EDGE OF RETURN MOISTURE IS NOW PUSHING INTO SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN A TAD AHEAD OF SCHEDULE...AS EVIDENT BY A BAND OF RAIN AND
SNOW. EARLIER MODERATE SNOW OVER N-C WISCONSIN IS HANGING ON ALONG
THE U.P. BORDER WHERE THEY RECEIVED 2-3 INCHES OF SNOW. BUT THE
MAIN PROBLEM FOR THIS FORECAST IS THE LOW OUT WEST AND HEAVY SNOW
POTENTIAL AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND
OCCLUDE AS IT MOVES INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY.
AHEAD OF THE LOW...A 40-50KT LLJ WILL RAMP UP AND SHIFT INTO
NORTHERN ILLINOIS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS LLJ WILL
TRANSPORT RICH GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE NORTHEAST WITH PWATS OF
UPWARDS OF 0.75 INCHES REACHING INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THIS IS
OVER 200 PCT OF NORMAL AND 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.
BEFORE THIS OCCURS THOUGH...LEADING EDGE OF THE RETURN MOISTURE ON
THE 285K SURFACE IS CREATING A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW WHICH
SHOULD APPROACH CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
FOX VALLEY BY EARLY IN THE EVENING. WET BULB TEMPS HAVE BEEN RISING
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT FIGURING SNOW OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN...AND
RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER EAST-CENTRAL WHERE ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE.
THE MAIN SURGE OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATE INTO
THE EVENING AND THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHEN FORCING VIA LLJ AND
MID-LEVEL FGEN LIFTS INTO THE REGION. WITH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF
6.5-7 C/KM AND NEGATIVE EPV ABOVE THE FGEN LAYER...CONVECTION IS
DEFINITELY POSSIBLE WITH THE PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT...AND UPSTREAM
OBS BEAR THIS OUT AS WELL. THERMAL PROFILES VARY WIDELY BETWEEN THE
WARMER GFS AND THE COLDER ECMWF/NAM. ALTHOUGH THERE IS PLENTY OF
WARM AIR TO OUR SOUTH...THE WARM LAYER IS MARGINALLY HIGH AT AROUND
800MB WHICH LEAVES THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION TO WIPE OUT THAT
WARM NOSE...THEREBY KEEPING THE PROFILE NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING
OVER CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN. AS A RESULT...HAVE BOOSTED
SNOW AMOUNTS OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND THE NORTHERN FOX VALLEY. AM
MOST CONFIDENT OF RAIN/SLEET MIXING IN OVER KEWAUNEE AND MANITOWOC
COUNTIES THANKS TO THE LAKE INFLUENCE. SE WINDS WILL ALSO RAMP UP
OVERNIGHT WHICH COULD CREATE NEAR WHITE OUT VSBYS AT TIMES WITHIN
THE HEAVY SNOW. WILL UPGRADE DOOR COUNTY TO WARNING CRITERIA...AS
THEY DO SURPRISINGLY WELL IN CASES LIKE THIS...WHERE COLDER AIR AT
925MB WILL HANG ON THE LONGEST. OTHERWISE...CURRENT HEADLINES LOOK
GOOD FOR WARNING/ADVISORY CONFIGURATION. THE NEXT SHIFT WILL HAVE
TO MONITOR FOR UPGRADES FOR THE NEXT ROW OF COUNTIES SOUTH OF THE
WARNING IF CONVECTION DOES COOL THE COLUMN ENOUGH FOR A MOSTLY SNOW
PTYPE.
WEDNESDAY...OCCLUDED LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOW AND MOVE FROM SW
MINNESOTA TO WESTERN WISCONSIN OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY. LOW
LEVEL WARM AIR WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP AROUND THE LOW INTO EASTERN
WISCONSIN DURING THE MORNING...WHILE THE DRY SLOW MOVES IN ALOFT.
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL BE WIDESPREAD NORTH AND WEST OF THE DRY
SLOT OVER NORTHERN AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING.
BUT FARTHER SOUTH...THE DRY SLOT WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR ICE
CRYSTALS TO GET INTRODUCED INTO THE CLOUD...SO HAVE ADDED THE CHANCE
OF FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER CENTRAL AND PARTS OF NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.
RAIN OR DRIZZLE SHOULD BE MIXING WITH SNOW BY THE TIME OF THE
MORNING COMMUTE OVER THE FOX VALLEY AND LAKESHORE WHICH LOOKS TO BE
A SLOPPY MESS. SHOULD ALSO SEE A PERIOD OF OF JUST RAIN/DRIZZLE AS
WELL...MID-MORNING THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON BEFORE COLDER AIR SURGES
EAST AS IT WRAPS AROUND THE LOW. WITH ALL THIS IN MIND...TOTAL
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION THROUGH 00Z THU LOOKS LIKE 10-15 INCHES OVER
N-C WISCONSIN...6-10 NORTH OF A MARSHFIELD TO STURGEON BAY
LINE...AND 3-7 INCHES FOR CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND MUCH OF THE FOX
VALLEY. DID END HEADLINES EARLY FOR THE FOX VALLEY AND
LAKESHORE...AS SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN SHOULD CAUSE CONDITIONS TO
RAPIDLY IMPROVE BY 18Z WED.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.
PERIOD TO SEE SHIFT FROM OUR SPLIT FLOW PATTERN TO A MORE
CONSOLIDATED FLOW WITH TROF SHIFTING EAST THROUGH THE LAKES REGION
THIS WEEKEND. TEMPS FOR SAT AND SUN EXPECTED TO BE AOB NORMS. RIDGE
TO FOLLOW FOR MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK FOR A DRY AND MILD PERIOD.
WED NIGHT TO THU...STORM TO BE EXITING THE AREA WITH SNOW ENDING
WEST TO EAST. LEFT OUT OF GRIDS AT THIS TIME...THOUGH MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE OVER THE EAST
BEHIND SYSTEM. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH DURING DAY
THU...SMALL CHANCE OF LAKE EFFECT FAR NW VILAS IN THE MORNING
THOUGH SUPPORT FOR THAT WEAKENS BY AFTERNOON.
THU NIGHT TO FRIDAY...MODELS STILL HAVING DIFFICULTY THIS
PERIOD...THOUGH STARTING TO GEL A BIT. TROF OF LOW
PRESSURE/DEVELOPING COLD FRONT MOVES EAST INTO STATE LATE THU
NIGHT. SIG WAA AHEAD OF SYSTEM AND SOME FGEN SAYS KEEP SMALL
POPS...MAINLY NORTH...UPPER SUPPORT WEAK THOUGH. ALL MODELS WANT TO
DEVELOP WAVE ON FRONT SOUTH OF STATE...BRING IT NE ALONG FRONT.
MOST TO OUR EAST...THOUGH GFS REMAINS CONSISTENT BRINGING LOW
THROUGH STATE. EITHER WAY KEPT CHANCE POPS HIGHEST EAST. SOME
CONCERN WITH PCPN TYPE...WILL GO FOR MIX EAST...THOUGH LATEST EC
BRINGING COLDER AIR FURTHER EAST.
WEEKEND...HINTS AT POSSIBLE CLIPPER SYSTEM SUN...AND POSSIBLE
LAKE EFFECT FAR NORTHWEST CWA WITH NORTHWEST FLOW.
&&
.AVIATION...LIGHT SNOW WITH IFR VSBYS WILL BE DIMINISHING THIS
AFTERNOON OVER N-C WISCONSIN WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA WILL BE
VFR. THEN LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS
TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NE INTO THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR THE ARRIVAL OF HEAVY SNOW. DRY AIR
WILL ERODE THE SNOW AS IT ARRIVES OVER NE WISCONSIN...BUT WILL BRING
IN THE SNOW INTO N-C WISCONSIN BY MID-EVENING...AND INTO THE FOX
VALLEY BY LATE EVENING. MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT ONCE IT ARRIVES. WARMER TEMPERATURES
ALOFT WILL ARRIVE BY LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...WHICH
SHOULD CAUSE SLEET AND FREEZING DRIZZLE TO MIX IN OVER CENTRAL AND
EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN THROUGH MIDDAY. WARMER AIR ARRIVES AT THE
SURFACE OVER E-C WISCONSIN IN THE MORNING...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO
IMPROVING CONDITIONS.
MPC
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
WEDNESDAY FOR WIZ038>040-048>050.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST
WEDNESDAY FOR WIZ035>037-045.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST
WEDNESDAY FOR WIZ005-010-011-018>020-030-031.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST
WEDNESDAY FOR WIZ012-013-021-073-074.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
WEDNESDAY FOR WIZ022.
&&
$$
MPC/TE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
324 AM EST THU MAR 1 2012
.DISCUSSION...
MARCH BEGINS WITH A CONTINUATION OF A SUMMER TYPE REGIME AND ITS
UNUSUAL THIS EARLY TO CONSIDER SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY COLLISIONS AND
WET SEASON CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS. A LATE BREEZE MERGER ON WEDNESDAY
PRODUCED MEASURABLE RAIN IN A FEW SPOTS OVER THE INTERIOR PENINSULA.
TODAY/TONIGHT...SFC RIDGING ANCHORED OVER THE WRN ATLC WILL LEAD TO
ANOTHER ROUND OF WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AFTER CLEARING OF SOME
MORNING STRATUS CLOUDS. SWEST FLOW ALOFT HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE
ROBUST SINCE WEDNESDAY AND THIS WL PROMOTE A BREEZE MERGER OVER THE
EAST PORTION OF THE PENINSULA TO PERHAPS THE I-95 CORRIDOR BY LATE
AFTERNOON. NEITHER RUC OR NAM REGIONAL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING ENOUGH
RAINFALL POTENTIAL TO MENTION POP IN TODAYS FORECAST WITH MOISTURE
LEVELS ON THE LOW SIDE. WL KEEP A SMALL PERCENTAGE CHC IN GRIDS
ONLY ATTM. BEST CHC FOR A LATE SHOWER WILL BE FROM AROUND CAPE
CANAVERAL SOUTH ALONG THE TREASURE COAST AT MID TO LATE AFTN.
HIGHS WILL BE WELL INTO THE 80S INLAND TO THE LOWER 80S AT THE
COAST BEFORE ONSHORE BREEZE MODIFICATION BY MID AFTERNOON.MILD
AGAIN TONIGHT WITH LIGHT SOUTH TO SW WINDS AND PATCHY STRATUS/FOG
LATE AND LOWS QUITE MILD IN THE 60S.
FRI-SAT...LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SOUTH OF FLORIDA ON FRI WHILE WARM
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH OCCLUDING LOW OVER MISSOURI/ILLINOIS REMAINS
WELL NORTH OF CENTRAL FLORIDA. DEEPENING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
PULLS WARM AIR MASS UP THE PENINSULA BUT WITH MID AND UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WELL NORTH AND A BRISK SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL HOLD ANY
SEA BREEZE FORMING TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WIND IS USUALLY CONDUCIVE FOR VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ALONG THE
FLORIDA EAST COAST AND PUSHES HIGHS INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S ON
FRI. CONTINUED SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND ON SAT MAKES IT EVEN WARMER
WITH UPPER 80S/NEAR 90 FROM LAKE OKEECHOBEE TO CENTRAL OSCEOLA
COUNTY AND UPPER 80S EVERYWHERE ELSE. SOME 90 DEGREE READINGS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION ALONG THE COAST. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
AROUND AN INCH AND VERY LITTLE MID LEVEL SUPPORT RESULT IN RAIN
CHANCES 10 PERCENT OR LESS BOTH DAY.
SUN-MON...BEST CHANCES AT ANY RAIN STARTING OVERNIGHT SAT AS A COLD
FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND APPROACHES FLORIDA. DEEPENING
MOISTURE IN PLACE FROM THE PREVIOUS DAYS SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
AND WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING SW TO NE IN THE 500MB FLOW OVERHEAD
GIVE CHANCE OF SHOWERS STARTING IN THE NORTHERN CWA AND SPREADING
INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA SUN MORNING AND LASTING THROUGH THE DAY.
ISOLATED SHOWERS BREVARD OSCEOLA SOUTH SUN EVENING WITH THE PRECIP
EXPECTED TO END AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE FRONT CLEARS EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA. STRONG NORTHWEST TO NORTH WIND BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD
PRODUCE BREEZY CONDITIONS AT THE COAST. COOL NORTHWEST WIND HOLD SUN
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S NORTH OF INTERSTATE 4 AND ALONG THE COAST
CAPE CANAVERAL NORTH AND THE LOW 70S THE REST OF EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA. A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND OFF THE COASTAL WATERS WILL
HELP TO PUSH HIGHS BACK INTO THE MIDDLE 70S.
TUE-WED...TROUGHING ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHEAST ON MON FLATTENS TO
BECOME NEARLY ZONAL TUE AND WED. SURFACE HIGH EXTENDING FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO TO THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTH BUILDS AS IT SHIFTS TO
THE EAST COAST TUE AND EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHWEST GULF/TX ALONG THE
U.S. EAST COAST AND TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. STABLE MARINE AIR
MASS LIMITS POP TO 10 PERCENT OR LESS BOTH DAYS. STRONG ONSHORE FLOW
WILL PUSH THE MARINE AIR WELL INLAND AND KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID 70S
BOTH DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOME SPOTS OF STRATUS MAINLY INLAND WITH CIGS NR FL 010
THROUGH 13Z THEN VFR AREA WIDE WITH NO CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH 19Z.
AFT 19Z SOME OCNL CIGS NR SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY AT COASTAL SITES WITH
SCT-BKN FL 035-040 AND ISOLD SHRA THROUGH AROUND 02/00Z.
&&
.MARINE...SFC RIDGE AXIS OVER S FL INTO THURSDAY WITH FLOW OVER
THE MARINE AREA S-SW. WINDS BECOMING ONSHORE BY MID AFTERNOON WITH
DEVELOPMENT OF A SEA BREEZE MAINLY SOUTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL.
AFTERNOON WIND SPEEDS AT 10-15KT WITH SEAS 2-3 FT NEAR SHORE
WATERS AND 3-4FT OFFSHORE THROUGH TONIGHT.
FRI-SAT...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS FRI
SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST AND FRESHENS TO 20 KNOTS SAT AS A
COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND NORTHERN GULF INCREASES
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT.
SAT NIGHT-SUN NIGHT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND
EXITS THE AREA SUN NIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST BEHIND
THE FRONT THEN NORTH SUN NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS. WINDS SURGE WITH NORTH WINDS TO 25 KNOTS AND SEAS TO
8 FEET IN THE GULF STREAM SUN MORN THEN DIMINISHING TO 15 TO 20
KNOTS SUN EVE.
MON...WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS AS THE
GRADIENT RELAXES WHEN THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER THE AREA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS FOR CRITICAL CONDITIONS UNTIL DRY AIR MASS
SETTLING IN OVER THE AREA RESULTS IN LOW RH VALUES NORTHWEST AREAS
SUN SPREADING SOUTH OVER THE INTERIOR MON.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 83 63 83 64 / 10 10 10 10
MCO 86 64 86 64 / 10 10 10 10
MLB 84 66 84 68 / 10 10 10 10
VRB 84 65 84 67 / 10 10 10 10
LEE 85 64 85 64 / 10 10 10 10
SFB 86 64 85 64 / 10 10 10 10
ORL 85 65 85 66 / 10 10 10 10
FPR 85 64 84 67 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...PENDERGRAST
LONG TERM....WIMMER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
330 AM CST THU MAR 1 2012
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 330 AM CST THU MAR 1 2012
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
999 MB LOW PRESSUR OVER SE SHORES OF LAKE HURON THAT BROUGHT HEAVY
SNOW TO PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST INCLUDING NORTHERN WI WITH 1-2
FEET WILL WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS EAST INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY
NOON AND INTO NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE FROM AR/MO INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND WESTERN MN
WILL MOVE OVER THE MID MS VALLEY AND IL BY NOON AND REACH NEAR THE
FOOTHILLS OF THE APPALACHIANS BY SUNSET. STILL GETTING SOME GUSTY
WEST WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING OF 20 TO 30 MPH AND EXPECT THESE
WINDS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES IN BY
MIDDAY. LOW CLOUDS FROM LINCOLN NE WILL ALSO DECREASE THIS MORNING
AS LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY FROM IL. HIGHS RANGING FROM AROUND 50F
NORTH OF I-74 AND UPPER 50S SE IL AND FROM JACKSONVILLE SW. WENT
WARMER THAN GUIDANCE WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE TODAY AND 850
MB TEMPS WARMING TO 5-8C BY SUNSET.
DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROF INTO THE ROCKIES TO DEVELOP/DEEPEN
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLE BY SUNSET TODAY AND
THEN EJECT NE INTO CENTRAL IL BY NOON FRI AS IT DEEPENS TO 994 MB
THEN INTO NORTHERN INDIANA BY SUNSET WHILE SWINGING A COLD FRONT
EAST THROUGH CENTRAL/SE IL. MODELS HAVE TRENDED A BIT QUICKER WITH
QPF OVERNIGHT INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL IL ESPECIALLY ECMWF AND NAM
MODEL IN WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN. ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT INTO AREAS FROM EFFINGHAM
SOUTH WHERE SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS. BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STILL EXPECTED FRI AND SPC HAS EXPANDED
SLIGHT RISK FROM THE IL RIVER SE WHILE MODERATE RISK SE OF IL OVER
PARTS OF KY/TN AND SE INDIANA. BEST SEVERE WX THREAT WILL BE OVER
SE IL LATE FRI MORNING INTO FRI AFTERNOON WHERE 30% OR HIGHER
RISK. HIGHS FRI RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S NW OF THE IL RIVER TO THE
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70F IN SE IL...SE OF I-70.
HAVE CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER EASTERN IL FRI EVENING THEN MOST OF
AREA DRY OVERNIGHT FRI NIGHT AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS INTO
SE CANADA. MUCH COLDER AIR USHERS INTO IL THIS WEEKEND WITH STRONG
UPPER LEVEL TROF DIGGING INTO THE EASTERN STATES WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. INCREASED THE CLOUD COVER THIS WEEKEND WITH
DIURNALLY ENHANCED CU/STRATOCU DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON.
CLIPPER SYSTEM TO BRINGING CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS SUNDAY
WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE TOO NORTH OF I-72.
LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS EAST INTO THE MS VALLEY AND IL
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NICE WARMUP IN STORE WITH 60S TUE/WED.
EXTENDED MODELS DIFFER ON ARRIVAL OF NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WITH
ECMWF NOW SLOWER AND KEEPING IT DRY OVER IL THROUGH WED EVENING.
GFS IS DRY OVER EASTERN IL WED WITH QPF MOVING INTO WESTERN/NW IL
WED AFTERNOON AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HAVE CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS WED THRU THU ALONG WITH RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS
TIME.
HUETTL
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1143 PM CST WED FEB 29 2012
CYCLONIC FLOW AND WRAP AROUND STRATOCUMULUS WILL CONTINUE TO COVER
THE NORTHERN THIRD OF ILLINOIS OVERNIGHT. THE RUC MODEL MOISTURE
FIELDS CONTINUE TO HANDLE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BETTER THAN THE
NAM AND GFS WITH RESPECT TO THESE CLOUDS. THE PROBLEM THOUGH WILL
BE THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE CLOUDS GETTING CLOSE TO SEVERAL TAF
SITES IN CENTRAL IL AND WHETHER OR NOT MVFR CIGS WILL FORM.
KPIA IS ALREADY CLOSE TO MVFR CIGS...SO THEY SHOULD DROP BELOW
3 KFT IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. BASED ON THE RUC MOISTURE
FIELDS...KBMI SHOULD BE ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE MVFR CIGS.
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE SKY COVER AT KCMI WHERE A
COMBINATION OF SATELLITE EXTRAPOLATION AND MODEL OUTPUT BARELY
PUTS THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE CLOUD SHIELD NEAR THEM. WILL GO WITH
A BKN VFR CIG FOR KCMI AT THIS TIME AND MONITOR THEM THROUGH THE
NIGHT.
THE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR IN MOST AREAS BY DAYBREAK WITH A
CONTINUED DECREASE IN THE WIND. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY WILL RESULT IN BACKING SURFACE WINDS FROM WEST TO
SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND THEN FROM THE EAST-SOUTHEAST BY
EVENING. ALL OF THE MODEL MOISTURE PROFILES AND CU RULE INDICATE A
CLEAR SKY MUCH OF THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING THURSDAY.
MILLER
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1144 PM CST WED FEB 29 2012
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 903 PM CST WED FEB 29 2012
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST/GRIDS FOR TONIGHT. THE
STRONG SURFACE LOW IN NORTHEAST WI IS STILL KEEPING A TIGHT
GRADIENT ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL IL WITH WIND GUSTS AROUND
35 MPH CONTINUING IN MANY LOCATIONS. AS THE LOW WEAKENS AND DRIFTS
TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT THE WIND WILL CONTINUE ITS GRADUAL DECLINE.
THE OTHER FORECAST CONCERN IS THE WRAP AROUND CLOUD COVER IN PARTS
OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS. THE LATEST SATELLITE LOOP HAS THE SOUTHERN
EDGE OF THIS FROM MACOMB TO JUST NORTH OF DANVILLE. THE 00Z RUC
SEEMS TO HAVE A GREAT HANDLE ON THIS WITH ITS DEPICTION OF THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FIELDS. THUS...WILL KEEP CLOUDS ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL SECTIONS...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS IN THE REST OF
CENTRAL IL AND A CLEAR SKY IN THE SOUTHEAST.
NOT PLANNING ANY BIG ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES AND LOW LEVEL
COLD ADVECTION SHOULD KEEP READINGS ON A SLOW...STEADY DECLINE
THROUGH THE NIGHT...DESPITE AREAS OF CLOUDS.
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1143 PM CST WED FEB 29 2012
CYCLONIC FLOW AND WRAP AROUND STRATOCUMULUS WILL CONTINUE TO COVER
THE NORTHERN THIRD OF ILLINOIS OVERNIGHT. THE RUC MODEL MOISTURE
FIELDS CONTINUE TO HANDLE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BETTER THAN THE
NAM AND GFS WITH RESPECT TO THESE CLOUDS. THE PROBLEM THOUGH WILL
BE THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE CLOUDS GETTING CLOSE TO SEVERAL TAF
SITES IN CENTRAL IL AND WHETHER OR NOT MVFR CIGS WILL FORM.
KPIA IS ALREADY CLOSE TO MVFR CIGS...SO THEY SHOULD DROP BELOW
3 KFT IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. BASED ON THE RUC MOISTURE
FIELDS...KBMI SHOULD BE ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE MVFR CIGS.
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE SKY COVER AT KCMI WHERE A
COMBINATION OF SATELLITE EXTRAPOLATION AND MODEL OUTPUT BARELY
PUTS THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE CLOUD SHIELD NEAR THEM. WILL GO WITH
A BKN VFR CIG FOR KCMI AT THIS TIME AND MONITOR THEM THROUGH THE
NIGHT.
THE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR IN MOST AREAS BY DAYBREAK WITH A
CONTINUED DECREASE IN THE WIND. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY WILL RESULT IN BACKING SURFACE WINDS FROM WEST TO
SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND THEN FROM THE EAST-SOUTHEAST BY
EVENING. ALL OF THE MODEL MOISTURE PROFILES AND CU RULE INDICATE A
CLEAR SKY MUCH OF THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING THURSDAY.
MILLER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 319 PM CST WED FEB 29 2012
MAIN CONCERNS THIS PACKAGE INCLUDE PCPN FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND THEN AGAIN AND THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ON
WEDNESDAY.
MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH ABOUT 36-42 HOURS BUT THEN
DIFFER AFTER THAT...ESPECIALLY WITH THE APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEM
FOR FRIDAY. THE NAM-WRF IS SLOWER AND FURTHER WEST THAN WITH THE
PREVIOUS RUN...WHILE THE GFS/SREF/GEM ARE FASTER AND MORE EAST.
THE ECMWF IS MUCH DIFFERENT FROM ALL OTHERS AND HAS THE LOW
TRACKING LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS WITH A
TIMING IN THE MIDDLE. SO BLENDING OF THE MODELS WILL BE TO TAKE THE
TIMING OF THE ECMWF AND THE TRACK OF THE OTHERS...WHICH IS LITTLE
FURTHER NORTH AND EAST. EXTENDED MODELS ARE SIMILAR THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...SO A GFS/ECMWF BLEND IS A GOOD FORECAST.
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
THE CURRENT SYSTEM LOCATED NORTH OF THE STATE WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE EAST INTO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRSS
MOVING IN WITH DRY WEATHER FOR TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT. THEN A
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP IN THE WESTERN PLAINS AND MOVE ACROSS
ILLINOIS FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE ENE INTO THE GRT LKS REGION
AND DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE STATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WITH GULF
WIDE OPEN...WILL BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. SPC HAS OUR
SOUTHEASTERN AREAS IN A SLIGHT RISK AND THIS STILL SEEMS
REASONABLE FOR NOW. AS THE SYSTEM PUSHES EAST A CHANCE OF PCPN
WILL CONTINUE IN THE EAST FRIDAY EVENING. COLDER AIR WILL ALSO
SPILL IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM CAUSING THE PCPN TO BECOME MIXED WITH
SNOW BEFORE IT ENDS. AFTER THIS SYSTEM...COOLER AIR WILL ADVECT
INTO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND.
LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY.
WITH MOISTURE SEVERELY LACKING...WILL HAVE ONLY A SLIGHT CHC OF
PCPN DURING THE DAY. TEMPS SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH THAT ANY PCPN
WILL BE LIQUID. THEN RIDGING MOVES BACK INTO THE REGION AFTER THE
WEEKEND AND BRINGS WARMER WEATHER BACK INTO THE CWA FOR THE EARLY
PART OF THE WEEK. EXTENDED MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE NEXT SYSTEM EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE CWA FOR WEDNESDAY.
TEMPS WILL BEGIN COOL FOR THE WEEKEND AND THEN BEGIN TO WARM BACK
TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR TUE AND WED.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
129 AM EST THU MAR 1 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
THE POST FRONTAL COLD POOL MAY STILL PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS OF
RAIN AND LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH INTO AFTERNOON. FARTHER SOUTH,
CONDITIONS TODAY WILL BE DRY AND SEASONABLE. EASTBOUND HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. LOW
PRESSURE, COMING NORTHEAST FROM OKLAHOMA, WILL PROVIDE SHOWERS LATE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY A COOL DOWN WITH SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
PER RECENT SURFACE AND RADAR DATA, ALONG WITH WRF-NMM MODEL OUTPUT,
EXPECT CURRENT COLD FRONTAL BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO EXIT EAST PAST THE MOUNTAINS BEFORE DAWN. HOWEVER,
THERE MAY BE SCATTERED COLD POOL SHOWERS OF RAIN AND POSSIBLY
FLURRY-LIKE SNOW LINGERING ACROSS THE NORTH INTO MIDDAY THURSDAY.
FARTHER SOUTH, NAM MODEL PROFILES INDICATE VARIABLE CLOUDINESS.
USING BLEND OF HRRR AND GFS LAMP, FORECASTED TEMPERATURES TO FALL
INTO THE 40S SOUTH AND 30S NORTH BEFORE MORNING. GFS AND NAM MOS
THEN SHOW A REBOUND OF ONLY A COUPLE DEGREES BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON,
MAKING DAYTIME HIGHS NEAR NORMAL.
NAM MODEL PROFILES SHOW WINDS CAN GUST TO 25-30 MPH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
EASTBOUND HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A DRY BREAK THURSDAY NIGHT,
WITH LOWS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL.
SREF MODEL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO SHOW A WELL DEVELOPED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM, MOVING NORTHEAST FROM OKLAHOMA TO MICHIGAN, WILL START
PRODUCING SHOWERS ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
NAM AND GFS MOS SHOW HIGHS FRIDAY CAN BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES WARMER
THAN NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SREF MODEL OUTPUT SHOWS ONCE THE LOW PRESSURE REACHES MICHIGAN, IT
WILL PUSH COLD FRONTAL BANDS OF SHOWERS EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY.
ECMWF MODEL OUTPUT THEN SHOWS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE
FURTHER COOLING SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY, WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS.
ENSUING HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD PROMOTE DRY CONDITIONS AND MODERATING
TEMPERATURES MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RECENT RADAR AND SURFACE DATA SHOW THE LAST OF IFR COLD FRONTAL
SHOWERS EXITING KDUJ BY 0630Z. THEN NAM MODEL PROFILES SHOW COLD
POOL STRATOCUMULUS TO OCCASIONALLY PRODUCE MVFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT
AND DAYTIME THURSDAY. ISOLATED MVFR VISIBILITIES CAN OCCUR WITH
MIXED SHOWERS NORTH.
SURFACE WINDS FROM THE WEST CAN GUST TO 25 KTS AT TIMES.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENSURE VFR AND LESS WIND TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
VFR INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THEN RESTRICTIONS AND SHOWERS POSSIBLE
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS
NORTHEAST AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT WILL PROMOTE POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS WITH RAIN AND SNOW SUNDAY
INTO EARLY MONDAY.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
921 PM MST WED FEB 29 2012
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR THU AND FRI...
A PACIFIC COLD FRONT IS MOVING EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING
IN ADVANCE OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH. FRONTAL PASSAGE IN BILLINGS WAS
BETWEEN 02 AND 03 UTC. A BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS HAS BEEN FOLLOWING
THE FRONT THANKS TO SOME MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY AND MODEST FORCING.
THIS SCENARIO HAS PRODUCED SOME BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY FOR
PLACES LIKE HARLOWTON...BUT ON ITS SOUTH END AROUND BIG TIMER...IT
APPEARS THAT THE LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS WAS TOO DRY FOR MORE THAN SOME
VIRGA. THE 00 UTC NAM AND RECENT HRRR RUNS SUPPORT THESE TRENDS IN
THAT THEY PRODUCE MOST OF THEIR PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH OF I-94
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE BETTER 500-300 Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE. BRIEF
SNOW SHOWERS ARE STILL LIKELY IN THOSE AREAS...BUT WE WILL UTILIZE
POPS IN THE 30 TO 60 PERCENT RANGE TO REFLECT THE SCATTERED NATURE
OF THE PRECIPITATION. AS OF 04 UTC...CLOUD TOPS ARE COOLING TO THE
EAST OF BILLINGS...AND A BRIEF SNOW SHOWER OCCURRED DOWNTOWN. THUS
WE WILL CONTINUE WITH SOME 20 TO 30 POPS ALL THE WAY DOWN INTO THE
SOUTHEAST PART OF MT AND SHERIDAN COUNTY WY.
OTHER THAN MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS...
THE ONLY OTHER CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WERE TO 1/ ADJUST WINDS UP
A BIT BEHIND THE FRONT IN SOUTHEAST MT...AND 2/ TO INCREASE LOWS A
FEW DEGREES IN THOSE SAME AREAS GIVEN THE INCREASING MIXING BEHIND
THE FRONT BEFORE 12 UTC. SCHULTZ
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...WED...
CHANGES WERE RELATIVELY MINOR FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AND MAINLY
ALONG LINES EXPECTED AFTER MORNING BRIEFING...AS MODELS REMAIN IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT OVERALL. TIMING ISSUES SEEM TO BE IMPROVING
IN THE 12Z RUNS...WITH COLD FRONT INTO THEN REGION MONDAY NIGHT.
MODELS DIVERGE AGAIN BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH DEPARTURE OF COLD
AIR.
UNSTABLE NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE REGION SATURDAY...WITH MAINLY
WRAP AROUND TYPE REMNANT SHOWERS FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF TROF AXIS.
KEPT SLIGHT POPS ACROSS THE PLAINS AT THIS TIME...AND HIGHER
CHANCES IN MOUNTAINS...WITH CONTINUED PACIFIC FLOW INTO HIGH
TERRAIN. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR
SUNDAY...CLEARING OUT ANY CHANCE FOR PRECIP. DID WARM UP TEMPS TO
MID TO UPPER 50S FOR SUNDAY...UNDER THE RIDGE. THIS IS STILL A
TOUCH UNDER GUIDANCE...AND THINK COULD BE A BIT WARMER...BUT
SHOULD BE CLOSE IF TIMING CONTINUES IN THE SAME MANNER.
ALSO...ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE INDICATES SUNDAY TO WARMER THAN
MONDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE MONDAY COULD BE WARMER WITH POTENTIAL OF A WARMER
START TO THE DAY...AND SIGNIFICANT PREFRONTAL WARMING THROUGH
MONDAY. SO RAISED TEMPS TO 60 AROUND KBIL...AND UPPER 50S IN MOST
OTHER AREAS. THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED TROF SHOULD PUSH INTO
THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN COOLER TEMPS
TUESDAY...AND SCATTERED PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION. DID RAISE POPS
IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS ALONG THE BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKA...AND PRYOR
MOUNTAINS. MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH EC FAVORING THE CONTINUATION OF COLD AND ACTIVE
WEATHER...AS A BROAD TROF STALLS OVER EASTERN MONTANA. THE GFS
HOWEVER FAVORS SHALLOW RIDGING. SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH INHERITED
NUMBERS FOR NOW...SEEING NO TREND EITHER DIRECTION. AAG
&&
.AVIATION...
DISTURBANCE TRACKING THROUGH THE REGION IS BRINGING SNOW SHOWERS
WITH SHORTLIVED MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. BETTER CHANCE FOR
PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWERS CAUSING REDUCTIONS BELOW MVFR IS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BORSUM
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 024/040 020/037 026/044 030/058 033/060 030/041 023/038
53/J 32/J 22/W 20/B 01/B 22/J 21/B
LVM 021/034 014/033 017/039 025/052 028/056 026/037 019/033
74/J 32/J 24/J 21/N 11/N 24/J 22/J
HDN 021/040 018/037 021/043 028/057 030/060 029/043 021/039
53/J 44/J 22/J 20/B 01/B 23/W 21/B
MLS 022/039 017/033 020/040 027/053 031/058 029/041 020/039
41/B 23/J 22/J 20/B 01/U 22/W 21/B
4BQ 021/037 016/032 018/037 025/053 028/055 027/041 019/038
21/B 34/J 22/J 20/B 01/U 12/W 22/J
BHK 019/036 013/025 013/034 021/047 027/053 026/037 017/038
31/B 13/J 11/N 21/B 01/U 12/W 21/B
SHR 018/036 015/033 016/038 023/053 027/056 027/040 018/039
22/J 33/J 22/J 21/B 01/U 22/J 22/J
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
1159 PM EST WED FEB 29 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE OVER IOWA WILL DRIFT EAST TO LAKE ONTARIO BY
THURSDAY MORNING...BEFORE REDEVELOPING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON
THURSDAY EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING MAINLY RAIN TO WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NEW YORK WITH MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO THE EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGION TONIGHT...WHICH WILL THEN TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
ON THURSDAY. EXPECT ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM TO AFFECT OUR REGION TOWARD
THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 1100 PM...LOW PRESSURE ACROSS EASTERN MICHIGAN WILL
SLOWLY LIFT TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION OVERNIGHT. STEADY
RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION HAS EXITED THE
REGION...WITH MOST LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE THRUWAY EITHER DRY...OR
WITH SOME DRIZZLE.
THE BIGGER ISSUE TONIGHT IS AN AREA OF CONVECTION WHICH HAS
DEVELOPED UPSTREAM. 12Z RUNS OF THE NAM/RGEM AND THE 01Z HRRR HAVE
CONSISTENTLY SHOWN SHOWERS EXPANDING AND LIFTING ACROSS WESTERN
NEW YORK BETWEEN 03Z AND 09Z...THEN EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AFTER 09Z.
AT 1100 PM...THERE IS STILL SOME LIGHTNING WITH THESE SHOWERS.
THIS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS THE SHOWERS LIFT NORTH...BUT DON/T
BE SURPRISES IF THERE IS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO IN BUFFALO
METRO AS THESE SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT. RADAR TRENDS
ARE SUPPORTING THE HRRR WHICH SPLITS THIS CONVECTION AS IF THE
CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE WAS A WEDGE. ONE AREA OF HEAVIER SHOWERS SHOULD
SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST ALONG THE NY/PA LINE. THE OTHER AREA SHOULD
LIFT ACROSS BUFFALO METRO...THEN FLATTEN OUT AS IT TRACKS
NORTHEAST ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO.
TOWARD DAYBREAK...THIS AREA SHOULD TRACK EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO INTO
COLDER AIR. EXPECT A NE FLOW TO MAINTAIN DOWN THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY...WHICH WILL KEEP SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING.
MEANWHILE...THE 00Z NAM/RGEM ARE NOW SUGGESTING A NEAR ISOTHERMAL
SOUNDING ALONG THE FREEZING LINE AT WATERTOWN. TO INTERIOR
SECTIONS...THIS WILL BRING A DECENT SNOW BURST FOR THE THURSDAY
MORNING COMMUTE...WITH A QUICK 2 TO 4 INCHES. NEAR THE LAKE
ONTARIO SHORE...AND SOUTH ACROSS OSWEGO COUNTY IT WILL BE CLOSE.
EXPECT SOME RAIN OR MIXED PRECIPITATION TO TREND TO SNOW...THOUGH
THIS SHOULD LIMIT ACCUMULATION. BECAUSE OF THIS...UPPED SNOW
FORECASTS FOR THURSDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT AREAS OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
BROAD TROUGHINESS IN THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL BE FOUND OVER THE
UNITED STATES AND SOUTHERN CANADA AT THE START OF THIS PERIOD...BUT
AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND...THIS FLOW WILL BECOME MUCH MORE
AMPLIFIED. THE PATTERN CHANGE WILL COME AS A RESULT OF A
PARTICULARLY VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE THAT WILL MOVE FROM THE BEARING SEA
AND `DOWN THE CHUTE` ALONG THE WEST COAST TO THE INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION...WITH AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG (+3 STD) H25 JET DIGGING A
DEEPER TROUGH IN THE PROCESS. ADDITIONAL ENERGY POURING INTO THE
TROUGH WILL LEAD TO FURTHER AMPLIFICATION WHILE IT WILL PROGRESS
ACROSS THE COUNTRY. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY LEAD TO A CHANGE TO COLDER
WEATHER FOR THE GREAT LAKES REGION...BUT NOT UNTIL THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. TIME TO SCALE DOWN AND GET SOME DETAILS.
AS ONE SHORTWAVE EXITS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY NIGHT...MID LEVEL
RIDGING WILL TEMPORARILY BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT
LAKES WHILE A SFC HIGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE
THERE MAY BE SOME LEFTOVER RAIN AND WET SNOW SHOWERS EARLY (MAINLY
OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY)...INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND MID LEVEL DRYING
WILL PROVIDE THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA WITH PCPN FREE WEATHER.
THE SUBSEQUENT CLEARING WILL BE SLOW TO TAKE PLACE THOUGH...AS A
STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BE
INEFFECTIVE AT CLEARING OUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. BOTTOM LINE IS
THAT LITTLE IF ANY CLEARING IS EXPECTED FOR THE OVERNIGHT.
ON FRIDAY...WARM ADVECTION WILL QUICKLY SET UP OVER THE FORECAST
AREA AS THE EXITING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF THE ST LAWRENCE
WILL COMBINE WITH A DEEPENING SFC LOW OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TO
ESTABLISH A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS PROCESS WILL HELP TO
SCOUR OUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT IT WILL ALSO LEAD TO AN
INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE. IT WILL ESSENTIALLY BE A
RACE WITHIN THE PROCESS TO SEE IF ANY ONE AREA EXPERIENCES MUCH
SUNSHINE. EITHER WAY...VERY MILD CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND OVER THE
WESTERN COUNTIES AS NEAR SFC TEMPS SHOULD AT LEAST BE ABLE TO
MODERATE INTO THE MID AND UPPER 40S...IF NOT THE LOWER 50S. THE
WARMEST SITES WILL BE IN THE SRN TIER VALLEYS AND POSSIBLY THE
GENESEE VALLEY. THE NAM BASED MET GUIDANCE LOOKED UNREASONABLY
CHILLY...SO USED A BLEND OF THE MAV AND SREF BASED VALUES SITES EAST
OF LK ONTARIO WILL STAY CLOSER TO SEASONABLE LEVELS WITH READINGS
CLOSER TO 40.
THE ROBUST SHORTWAVE MENTIONED IN THE OPENING OF THIS SHORT TERM
DISCUSSION WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE PROGRESSIVE H5 TROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...HELPING TO FURTHER DEEPEN THE STRONG SFC LOW THAT WILL BE
LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE TWO MOST TRUSTED MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AT THIS POINT IN
THE EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THIS SFC LOW...BUT IN EITHER CASE A
NOTABLE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT BY TO THE WEST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA LATER FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. WILL NOT BORE YOU WITH THE
MODEL DIFFERENCES FROM THIS RANGE BUT TO SAY THAT THE RESULTING
WEATHER WILL BASICALLY COME DOWN TO PARTS OF THE REGION EXPERIENCING
ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS VERSUS POSSIBLE LOW END WARNING WINDS.
THE STRONG WINDS WILL COME IN TWO DISTINCT SHOTS. THE FIRST ROUND
WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH A 60-70KT LOW LEVEL
SOUTHERLY JET THAT WILL BE FOUND IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. THESE WINDS WILL POSE A THREAT ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF OUR FORECAST AREA...AND ALSO ALONG THE LAKE ERIE LAKESHORE WHERE
A FAVORABLE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL MAXIMIZE A
DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT. THE SECOND TIME FRAME OF CONCERN WILL BE IN
THE IMMEDIATELY WAKE OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY MORNING
WHEN STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND A TIGHT SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
PRODUCE A MORE BROAD BRUSH OF STRONG WINDS...MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN
COUNTIES AWAY FROM THE FINGER LAKES. DETAILS FOR EITHER THREAT WILL
BE WORKED OUT IN LATER PACKAGES AS CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK
OF THE SFC LOW INCREASES.
IN TERMS OF PCPN...NEAR 100M HGT FALLS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL COMBINE
WITH STRONG JET INDUCED LIFT FROM AN APPROACHING 150KT H25 JET AND
IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TO PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. BUFKIT NAM
OVERVIEWS SUGGEST IMPRESSIVE 200-500 J/KG`S WORTH OF ELEVATED
CAPE...AND GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE SYNOPTIC FORCING AND ASSOCIATED
WIND FIELDS...THIS SCENARIO WOULD CERTAINLY ENCOURAGE SOME GUSTY
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. WHILE THERE MAY BE SOME SHOWERS EARLY
THURSDAY NIGHT FROM THE ISENTROPIC LIFT...THE DEEPER CONVECTION
(STORMS) AND HEAVIER PCPN WILL LIKELY WAIT UNTIL LATER FRIDAY NIGHT
OR EVEN EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. AGAIN...THE DETAILS WILL HAVE TO BE
HAMMERED OUT IN LATER PACKAGES AS THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
IS DIRECTLY LINKED TO THE TRACK/STRENGTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC
LOW.
WHILE SATURDAY MAY OPEN UP WITH SOME GUSTY SHOWERS (ESP EAST OF LK
ONT)...THE DAY SHOULD BE LARGELY DRY AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH LOW LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE FOUND IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.
AGAIN...THE MAIN CONCERN FOR SATURDAY WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG WINDS. THIS THREAT WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK PRODUCT.
THE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE DURING WHAT SHOULD BE AN UNEVENTFUL SATURDAY
NIGHT AS THE BASE OF THE DIGGING H5 TROUGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY. H85 TEMPS WILL DROP TO ARND
-8 TO -10C BY DAYBREAK...AND WHILE THIS WOULD BE JUST BARELY COLD
ENOUGH TO INITIATE A LAKE RESPONSE...LOW LEVEL RIDGING AND A FAIR
AMOUNT OF MID LEVEL DRY AIR SHOULD DETER ANYTHING MORE THAN SOME
LAKE INDUCED CLOUDINESS EAST OF BOTH LAKES.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE DURING THIS PERIOD THAT NEAR TO BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN MODERATE TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS AS THE DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL GIVE
WAY TO A PROGRESSIVE RIDGE. NOT ONLY WILL SIGNIFICANT RIDGING BUILD
ALONG THE EAST COAST BY MID WEEK...BUT A DEEP PACIFIC BASED FLOW
WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE COUNTRY UP TO THIS POINT.
FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...THE BASE OF A DEEP H5 TROUGH WILL
CROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WHILE A SECONDARY SFC COLD FRONT WILL
DROP ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. THIS WILL ALLOW H85 TEMPS TO PLUNGE TO
BETWEEN -12 AND -16C...WITH SYNOPTICALLY INDUCED SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY
GIVING WAY TO SOME NUISANCE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT. I
SAY NUISANCE BECAUSE IT IS LIKELY THAT A CAPPING SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION WILL GREATLY LIMIT SNOW ACCUMS.
ON MONDAY...EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES
TO THE GULF WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE THE LOWERING
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL FURTHER CHOKE OFF ANY LAKE EFFECT...H85
TEMPS AVG -12C AND A WEAK NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL PROBABLY KEEP
A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AROUND AND POSSIBLY SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS. THIS WILL MAINLY BE THE CASE FOR SITES SOUTH OF LK
ONTARIO...WITH THE NORTH COUNTRY LIKELY HAVING THE BEST CHANCES OF
EXPERIENCING ANY SUNSHINE.
THE LARGE SFC HIGH WILL DRIFT EAST ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WHILE A
PROGRESSIVE RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO
TWO SUNNY DAYS ACROSS OUR REGION WITH A NOTICEABLE DAY TO DAY
WARMING TREND AS H85 TEMPS JUMP TO BETWEEN +4 AND +8C.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SLOWLY TRACK
FROM EASTERN MICHIGAN TO EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION OVERNIGHT.
OVERNIGHT...EXPECT VARIABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
MVFR THE MOST COMMON. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF LOWERING TO IFR OR
LOWER AT BUF/IAG/JHW AS THE SURFACE LOW PASSES AND WINDS CALM.
ALSO...THERE IS STILL SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN NEW
YORK...WITH THIS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH.
STEADY RAIN SHOWERS WILL LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST LATER
TONIGHT...ENCOUNTERING COLDER AIR. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE
CHALLENGING AT ART AS THIS MOVES IN...WITH SNOW APPEARING THE MOST
LIKELY FORM...THOUGH FREEZING RAIN OR RAIN ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS
SHOULD GRADUALLY EXIT EAST ON THURSDAY...WITH OTHERWISE MVFR
CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE DAY.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY MVFR.
FRIDAY...GENERALLY VFR.
SATURDAY...MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
BASED ON THE 00Z NAM/RUC FORECASTS...AND CONSIDERING THE TRACK OF
THE SURFACE LOW...OPTED TO ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR LAKE
ERIE. EXPECT A 3 TO 6 HOUR PERIOD OF 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS IN A
SOUTHWEST FLOW THURSDAY MORNING.
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN SHORES OF LAKE ONTARIO
WILL PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AS A WARM FRONT REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE LAKE ONTARIO BASIN. ONCE
THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER PASSES BY LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...WINDS WILL QUICKLY VEER TO SOUTHWEST AND PICK UP
AGAIN...PARTICULARLY ON LAKE ERIE WHERE ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES SHOULD EVENTUALLY BECOME NECESSARY.
&&
.CLIMATE...
A REMARKABLE MILD WINTER CONTINUED INTO FEBRUARY WITH MONTHLY
TEMPERATURES AVERAGING OVER 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR A 4TH
CONSECUTIVE MONTH. VERY FEW RECORD HIGHS WERE SET IN THIS 4 MONTH
STRETCH...RATHER JUST A PERSISTENT MILD PATTERN THROUGH THE WINTER.
FOR THE DECEMBER-JANUARY-FEBRUARY TIME FRAME THE LONGEST STRETCH OF
SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES WAS ONLY 4 DAYS FOR BOTH BUFFALO AND
ROCHESTER (JAN 18-21). NO OTHER STRETCH WAS LONGER THAN 2
DAYS...IMPRESSIVE CONSIDERING BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER AVERAGES 39
DAYS BELOW FREEZING IN THE DECEMBER THROUGH FEBRUARY TIMEFRAME.
FOR FEBRUARY BUFFALO HAD 25 DAYS REACHING OR EXCEEDING THE FREEZING
MARK...TIED WITH 1998 FOR GREATEST NUMBER OF DAYS IN THE MONTH OF
FEBRUARY REACHING OR EXCEEDING 32F. ROCHESTER HAD 25 SUCH DAYS AS
WELL...THE GREATEST EVER IN THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY.
WHILE BUFFALO HAD MINIMAL SNOW IN FEBRUARY WITH JUST 9.6 INCHES
FALLING...ROCHESTER DID FAIR BETTER UNDER SEVERAL LAKE EFFECT SNOW
BANDS WHICH HELPED BRING 26.8 INCHES OF SNOW TO THE ROCHESTER
AIRPORT FOR FEBRUARY. IN BUFFALO THE DJF SNOWFALL OF 34.2 INCHES IS
THE 4TH LOWEST SINCE THE MOVE TO THE AIRPORT...WITH 25.8 INCHES IN
THE WINTER OF 1947-48 HAVING THE LEAST TOTAL (25.8 INCHES).
DAYS WITH SNOW COVER WAS LACKING ACROSS THE REGION THIS WINTER.
BUFFALO HAD ONLY 22 DAYS IN DJF WITH AN INCH OR MORE OF SNOW ON THE
GROUND. THIS IS TIED FOR 4TH LOWEST IN 119 YEARS OF RECORD
KEEPING...AND 2ND LOWEST SINCE RECORD KEEPING MOVED TO THE AIRPORT.
THE LOWEST DJF DAYS WITH ONE INCH OR MORE OF SNOW ON THE GROUND ARE:
1931-32 (16) 1948-49 (18) AND 1936-37 (20). ROCHESTER ALSO HAD A
LACK OF DAYS WITH SNOW COVERING THE GROUND...ONLY 25 DAYS HAVING AT
LEAST AN INCH OF SNOW ON THE GROUND. IN 86 YEARS OF ROCHESTER RECORD
ONLY THE SEASON 1932-33 HAD A LOWER TOTAL...WITH 21 DAYS.
FOR THE ENTIRE WINTER SEASON (JULY-JUNE)...BUFFALO CAN FINISH NO
HIGHER THAN 3RD PLACE ALL-TIME FOR LACK OF SNOW...AND ROCHESTER
WHICH HAS FAIRED BETTER THIS WINTER CAN FINISH NO HIGHER THAN 10TH
PLACE. BELOW IS A TABLE FOR BUFFALO FOR LEAST SNOWIEST WINTERS.
RANK SEASON WINTER SNOWFALL
(INCHES)
1 1889-90 22.4
2 1918-19 25.0
3 1921-22 39.8
4 1948-49 40.1
5 1947-48 42.1
TO DATE SNOWFALL IN BUFFALO STANDS AT 34.2 INCHES.
FOR ROCHESTER WE WILL TAKE A LOOK AT YEARS SINCE 1950 SINCE WE ARE
LIKELY OUT OF THE RUNNING FOR A TOP TEN ALL-TIME LEAST AMOUNT OF SNOW.
RANK SEASON WINTER SNOWFALL (SINCE 1950)
(INCHES)
1 1952-53 41.7
2 1994-95 56.2
3 2001-02 58.1
4 1982-83 59.9
5 1961-62 65.6
TO DATE SNOWFALL IN ROCHESTER STANDS AT 52.0 INCHES.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 5 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LEZ040-
041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
LOZ042.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WCH
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/WCH
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/WCH
CLIMATE...THOMAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
1115 PM EST WED FEB 29 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE OVER IOWA WILL DRIFT EAST TO LAKE ONTARIO BY
THURSDAY MORNING...BEFORE REDEVELOPING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON
THURSDAY EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING MAINLY RAIN TO WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NEW YORK WITH MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO THE EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGION TONIGHT...WHICH WILL THEN TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
ON THURSDAY. EXPECT ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM TO AFFECT OUR REGION TOWARD
THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 1100 PM...LOW PRESSURE ACROSS EASTERN MICHIGAN WILL
SLOWLY LIFT TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION OVERNIGHT. STEADY
RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION HAS EXITED THE
REGION...WITH MOST LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE THRUWAY EITHER DRY...OR
WITH SOME DRIZZLE.
THE BIGGER ISSUE TONIGHT IS AN AREA OF CONVECTION WHICH HAS
DEVELOPED UPSTREAM. 12Z RUNS OF THE NAM/RGEM AND THE 01Z HRRR HAVE
CONSISTENTLY SHOWN SHOWERS EXPANDING AND LIFTING ACROSS WESTERN
NEW YORK BETWEEN 03Z AND 09Z...THEN EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AFTER 09Z.
AT 1100 PM...THERE IS STILL SOME LIGHTNING WITH THESE SHOWERS.
THIS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS THE SHOWERS LIFT NORTH...BUT DON/T
BE SURPRISES IF THERE IS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO IN BUFFALO
METRO AS THESE SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT. RADAR TRENDS
ARE SUPPORTING THE HRRR WHICH SPLITS THIS CONVECTION AS IF THE
CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE WAS A WEDGE. ONE AREA OF HEAVIER SHOWERS SHOULD
SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST ALONG THE NY/PA LINE. THE OTHER AREA SHOULD
LIFT ACROSS BUFFALO METRO...THEN FLATTEN OUT AS IT TRACKS
NORTHEAST ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO.
TOWARD DAYBREAK...THIS AREA SHOULD TRACK EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO INTO
COLDER AIR. EXPECT A NE FLOW TO MAINTAIN DOWN THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY...WHICH WILL KEEP SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING.
MEANWHILE...THE 00Z NAM/RGEM ARE NOW SUGGESTING A NEAR ISOTHERMAL
SOUNDING ALONG THE FREEZING LINE AT WATERTOWN. TO INTERIOR
SECTIONS...THIS WILL BRING A DECENT SNOW BURST FOR THE THURSDAY
MORNING COMMUTE...WITH A QUICK 2 TO 4 INCHES. NEAR THE LAKE
ONTARIO SHORE...AND SOUTH ACROSS OSWEGO COUNTY IT WILL BE CLOSE.
EXPECT SOME RAIN OR MIXED PRECIPITATION TO TREND TO SNOW...THOUGH
THIS SHOULD LIMIT ACCUMULATION. BECAUSE OF THIS...UPPED SNOW
FORECASTS FOR THURSDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT AREAS OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
BROAD TROUGHINESS IN THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL BE FOUND OVER THE
UNITED STATES AND SOUTHERN CANADA AT THE START OF THIS PERIOD...BUT
AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND...THIS FLOW WILL BECOME MUCH MORE
AMPLIFIED. THE PATTERN CHANGE WILL COME AS A RESULT OF A
PARTICULARLY VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE THAT WILL MOVE FROM THE BEARING SEA
AND `DOWN THE CHUTE` ALONG THE WEST COAST TO THE INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION...WITH AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG (+3 STD) H25 JET DIGGING A
DEEPER TROUGH IN THE PROCESS. ADDITIONAL ENERGY POURING INTO THE
TROUGH WILL LEAD TO FURTHER AMPLIFICATION WHILE IT WILL PROGRESS
ACROSS THE COUNTRY. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY LEAD TO A CHANGE TO COLDER
WEATHER FOR THE GREAT LAKES REGION...BUT NOT UNTIL THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. TIME TO SCALE DOWN AND GET SOME DETAILS.
AS ONE SHORTWAVE EXITS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY NIGHT...MID LEVEL
RIDGING WILL TEMPORARILY BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT
LAKES WHILE A SFC HIGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE
THERE MAY BE SOME LEFTOVER RAIN AND WET SNOW SHOWERS EARLY (MAINLY
OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY)...INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND MID LEVEL DRYING
WILL PROVIDE THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA WITH PCPN FREE WEATHER.
THE SUBSEQUENT CLEARING WILL BE SLOW TO TAKE PLACE THOUGH...AS A
STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BE
INEFFECTIVE AT CLEARING OUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. BOTTOM LINE IS
THAT LITTLE IF ANY CLEARING IS EXPECTED FOR THE OVERNIGHT.
ON FRIDAY...WARM ADVECTION WILL QUICKLY SET UP OVER THE FORECAST
AREA AS THE EXITING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF THE ST LAWRENCE
WILL COMBINE WITH A DEEPENING SFC LOW OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TO
ESTABLISH A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS PROCESS WILL HELP TO
SCOUR OUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT IT WILL ALSO LEAD TO AN
INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE. IT WILL ESSENTIALLY BE A
RACE WITHIN THE PROCESS TO SEE IF ANY ONE AREA EXPERIENCES MUCH
SUNSHINE. EITHER WAY...VERY MILD CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND OVER THE
WESTERN COUNTIES AS NEAR SFC TEMPS SHOULD AT LEAST BE ABLE TO
MODERATE INTO THE MID AND UPPER 40S...IF NOT THE LOWER 50S. THE
WARMEST SITES WILL BE IN THE SRN TIER VALLEYS AND POSSIBLY THE
GENESEE VALLEY. THE NAM BASED MET GUIDANCE LOOKED UNREASONABLY
CHILLY...SO USED A BLEND OF THE MAV AND SREF BASED VALUES SITES EAST
OF LK ONTARIO WILL STAY CLOSER TO SEASONABLE LEVELS WITH READINGS
CLOSER TO 40.
THE ROBUST SHORTWAVE MENTIONED IN THE OPENING OF THIS SHORT TERM
DISCUSSION WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE PROGRESSIVE H5 TROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...HELPING TO FURTHER DEEPEN THE STRONG SFC LOW THAT WILL BE
LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE TWO MOST TRUSTED MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AT THIS POINT IN
THE EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THIS SFC LOW...BUT IN EITHER CASE A
NOTABLE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT BY TO THE WEST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA LATER FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. WILL NOT BORE YOU WITH THE
MODEL DIFFERENCES FROM THIS RANGE BUT TO SAY THAT THE RESULTING
WEATHER WILL BASICALLY COME DOWN TO PARTS OF THE REGION EXPERIENCING
ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS VERSUS POSSIBLE LOW END WARNING WINDS.
THE STRONG WINDS WILL COME IN TWO DISTINCT SHOTS. THE FIRST ROUND
WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH A 60-70KT LOW LEVEL
SOUTHERLY JET THAT WILL BE FOUND IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. THESE WINDS WILL POSE A THREAT ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF OUR FORECAST AREA...AND ALSO ALONG THE LAKE ERIE LAKESHORE WHERE
A FAVORABLE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL MAXIMIZE A
DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT. THE SECOND TIME FRAME OF CONCERN WILL BE IN
THE IMMEDIATELY WAKE OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY MORNING
WHEN STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND A TIGHT SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
PRODUCE A MORE BROAD BRUSH OF STRONG WINDS...MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN
COUNTIES AWAY FROM THE FINGER LAKES. DETAILS FOR EITHER THREAT WILL
BE WORKED OUT IN LATER PACKAGES AS CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK
OF THE SFC LOW INCREASES.
IN TERMS OF PCPN...NEAR 100M HGT FALLS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL COMBINE
WITH STRONG JET INDUCED LIFT FROM AN APPROACHING 150KT H25 JET AND
IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TO PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. BUFKIT NAM
OVERVIEWS SUGGEST IMPRESSIVE 200-500 J/KG`S WORTH OF ELEVATED
CAPE...AND GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE SYNOPTIC FORCING AND ASSOCIATED
WIND FIELDS...THIS SCENARIO WOULD CERTAINLY ENCOURAGE SOME GUSTY
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. WHILE THERE MAY BE SOME SHOWERS EARLY
THURSDAY NIGHT FROM THE ISENTROPIC LIFT...THE DEEPER CONVECTION
(STORMS) AND HEAVIER PCPN WILL LIKELY WAIT UNTIL LATER FRIDAY NIGHT
OR EVEN EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. AGAIN...THE DETAILS WILL HAVE TO BE
HAMMERED OUT IN LATER PACKAGES AS THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
IS DIRECTLY LINKED TO THE TRACK/STRENGTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC
LOW.
WHILE SATURDAY MAY OPEN UP WITH SOME GUSTY SHOWERS (ESP EAST OF LK
ONT)...THE DAY SHOULD BE LARGELY DRY AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH LOW LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE FOUND IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.
AGAIN...THE MAIN CONCERN FOR SATURDAY WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG WINDS. THIS THREAT WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK PRODUCT.
THE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE DURING WHAT SHOULD BE AN UNEVENTFUL SATURDAY
NIGHT AS THE BASE OF THE DIGGING H5 TROUGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY. H85 TEMPS WILL DROP TO ARND
-8 TO -10C BY DAYBREAK...AND WHILE THIS WOULD BE JUST BARELY COLD
ENOUGH TO INITIATE A LAKE RESPONSE...LOW LEVEL RIDGING AND A FAIR
AMOUNT OF MID LEVEL DRY AIR SHOULD DETER ANYTHING MORE THAN SOME
LAKE INDUCED CLOUDINESS EAST OF BOTH LAKES.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE DURING THIS PERIOD THAT NEAR TO BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN MODERATE TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS AS THE DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL GIVE
WAY TO A PROGRESSIVE RIDGE. NOT ONLY WILL SIGNIFICANT RIDGING BUILD
ALONG THE EAST COAST BY MID WEEK...BUT A DEEP PACIFIC BASED FLOW
WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE COUNTRY UP TO THIS POINT.
FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...THE BASE OF A DEEP H5 TROUGH WILL
CROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WHILE A SECONDARY SFC COLD FRONT WILL
DROP ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. THIS WILL ALLOW H85 TEMPS TO PLUNGE TO
BETWEEN -12 AND -16C...WITH SYNOPTICALLY INDUCED SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY
GIVING WAY TO SOME NUISANCE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT. I
SAY NUISANCE BECAUSE IT IS LIKELY THAT A CAPPING SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION WILL GREATLY LIMIT SNOW ACCUMS.
ON MONDAY...EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES
TO THE GULF WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE THE LOWERING
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL FURTHER CHOKE OFF ANY LAKE EFFECT...H85
TEMPS AVG -12C AND A WEAK NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL PROBABLY KEEP
A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AROUND AND POSSIBLY SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS. THIS WILL MAINLY BE THE CASE FOR SITES SOUTH OF LK
ONTARIO...WITH THE NORTH COUNTRY LIKELY HAVING THE BEST CHANCES OF
EXPERIENCING ANY SUNSHINE.
THE LARGE SFC HIGH WILL DRIFT EAST ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WHILE A
PROGRESSIVE RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO
TWO SUNNY DAYS ACROSS OUR REGION WITH A NOTICEABLE DAY TO DAY
WARMING TREND AS H85 TEMPS JUMP TO BETWEEN +4 AND +8C.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SLOWLY TRACK
FROM MICHIGAN TO EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION OVERNIGHT. A SHARP
INVERSION WILL SET UP OUT AHEAD OF THIS LOW...WITH THIS FORECAST
TO LOWER THIS EVENING. EXPECT MAINLY IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS AT
JHW/BUF/IAG/ROC IN THIS ENVIRONMENT...WITH A PERIOD OF 1/2SM OR
LOWER VSBY POSSIBLE. FOR NOW...SHOW LOWERING TREND IN TAFS...BUT
ONLY BRING JHW BELOW 1/2SM IN FOG. VSBY/CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE SOME AS
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROF MOVE THROUGH LATE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. AN ISOLATED STRIKE OF LIGHTNING IS POSSIBLE
AS THESE SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH IN ELEVATED INSTABILITY.
ITS A DIFFERENT STORY AT ART...WHERE LIGHT SNOW TRANSITIONING TO
MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACT. EXPECT LOWEST VSBY IN
SNOW EARLY THIS EVENING. THEN VSBY SHOULD IMPROVE AS PRECIPITATION
TAPERS AND MIXES...BUT CIGS MAY LOWER AS MOISTURE INCREASES.
EXPECT A MARGINAL IMPROVEMENT FOR THURSDAY...WITH MAINLY MVFR
CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS...AND IN CIGS.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...IFR TO MVFR WITH RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TAPERING OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST.
FRIDAY...GENERALLY VFR.
SATURDAY...MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
BASED ON THE 00Z NAM/RUC FORECASTS...AND CONSIDERING THE TRACK OF
THE SURFACE LOW...OPTED TO ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR LAKE
ERIE. EXPECT A 3 TO 6 HOUR PERIOD OF 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS IN A
SOUTHWEST FLOW THURSDAY MORNING.
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN SHORES OF LAKE ONTARIO
WILL PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AS A WARM FRONT REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE LAKE ONTARIO BASIN. ONCE
THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER PASSES BY LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...WINDS WILL QUICKLY VEER TO SOUTHWEST AND PICK UP
AGAIN...PARTICULARLY ON LAKE ERIE WHERE ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES SHOULD EVENTUALLY BECOME NECESSARY.
&&
.CLIMATE...
A REMARKABLE MILD WINTER CONTINUED INTO FEBRUARY WITH MONTHLY
TEMPERATURES AVERAGING OVER 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR A 4TH
CONSECUTIVE MONTH. VERY FEW RECORD HIGHS WERE SET IN THIS 4 MONTH
STRETCH...RATHER JUST A PERSISTENT MILD PATTERN THROUGH THE WINTER.
FOR THE DECEMBER-JANUARY-FEBRUARY TIME FRAME THE LONGEST STRETCH OF
SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES WAS ONLY 4 DAYS FOR BOTH BUFFALO AND
ROCHESTER (JAN 18-21). NO OTHER STRETCH WAS LONGER THAN 2
DAYS...IMPRESSIVE CONSIDERING BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER AVERAGES 39
DAYS BELOW FREEZING IN THE DECEMBER THROUGH FEBRUARY TIMEFRAME.
FOR FEBRUARY BUFFALO HAD 25 DAYS REACHING OR EXCEEDING THE FREEZING
MARK...TIED WITH 1998 FOR GREATEST NUMBER OF DAYS IN THE MONTH OF
FEBRUARY REACHING OR EXCEEDING 32F. ROCHESTER HAD 25 SUCH DAYS AS
WELL...THE GREATEST EVER IN THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY.
WHILE BUFFALO HAD MINIMAL SNOW IN FEBRUARY WITH JUST 9.6 INCHES
FALLING...ROCHESTER DID FAIR BETTER UNDER SEVERAL LAKE EFFECT SNOW
BANDS WHICH HELPED BRING 26.8 INCHES OF SNOW TO THE ROCHESTER
AIRPORT FOR FEBRUARY. IN BUFFALO THE DJF SNOWFALL OF 34.2 INCHES IS
THE 4TH LOWEST SINCE THE MOVE TO THE AIRPORT...WITH 25.8 INCHES IN
THE WINTER OF 1947-48 HAVING THE LEAST TOTAL (25.8 INCHES).
DAYS WITH SNOW COVER WAS LACKING ACROSS THE REGION THIS WINTER.
BUFFALO HAD ONLY 22 DAYS IN DJF WITH AN INCH OR MORE OF SNOW ON THE
GROUND. THIS IS TIED FOR 4TH LOWEST IN 119 YEARS OF RECORD
KEEPING...AND 2ND LOWEST SINCE RECORD KEEPING MOVED TO THE AIRPORT.
THE LOWEST DJF DAYS WITH ONE INCH OR MORE OF SNOW ON THE GROUND ARE:
1931-32 (16) 1948-49 (18) AND 1936-37 (20). ROCHESTER ALSO HAD A
LACK OF DAYS WITH SNOW COVERING THE GROUND...ONLY 25 DAYS HAVING AT
LEAST AN INCH OF SNOW ON THE GROUND. IN 86 YEARS OF ROCHESTER RECORD
ONLY THE SEASON 1932-33 HAD A LOWER TOTAL...WITH 21 DAYS.
FOR THE ENTIRE WINTER SEASON (JULY-JUNE)...BUFFALO CAN FINISH NO
HIGHER THAN 3RD PLACE ALL-TIME FOR LACK OF SNOW...AND ROCHESTER
WHICH HAS FAIRED BETTER THIS WINTER CAN FINISH NO HIGHER THAN 10TH
PLACE. BELOW IS A TABLE FOR BUFFALO FOR LEAST SNOWIEST WINTERS.
RANK SEASON WINTER SNOWFALL
(INCHES)
1 1889-90 22.4
2 1918-19 25.0
3 1921-22 39.8
4 1948-49 40.1
5 1947-48 42.1
TO DATE SNOWFALL IN BUFFALO STANDS AT 34.2 INCHES.
FOR ROCHESTER WE WILL TAKE A LOOK AT YEARS SINCE 1950 SINCE WE ARE
LIKELY OUT OF THE RUNNING FOR A TOP TEN ALL-TIME LEAST AMOUNT OF SNOW.
RANK SEASON WINTER SNOWFALL (SINCE 1950)
(INCHES)
1 1952-53 41.7
2 1994-95 56.2
3 2001-02 58.1
4 1982-83 59.9
5 1961-62 65.6
TO DATE SNOWFALL IN ROCHESTER STANDS AT 52.0 INCHES.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 5 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LEZ040-
041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
LOZ042.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WCH
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/WCH
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/WCH
CLIMATE...THOMAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
410 AM EST THU MAR 01 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL PROGRESS INTO THE AREA TODAY AND STALL NEAR THE
SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER TONIGHT. THE STALLED BOUNDARY WILL LIFT
RAPIDLY NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON FRIDAY...AS A DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND A POTENT
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE MOUNTAINS FROM THE WEST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM THURSDAY...
OVERVIEW:
AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER MICHIGAN AT 06Z WILL DEAMPLIFY AS IT
SLOWLY TRACKS EAST TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY 12Z...AND INTO NEW
ENGLAND BY 00Z THIS EVENING. A 125-KT H3 JET EXTENDING FROM WESTERN
TX INTO THE TN VALLEY AT 06Z IS PROGGED TO NOSE EAST INTO THE
CAROLINAS BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH CYCLONIC SHEAR
VORTICITY ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE JET INCREASING OVER
SOUTHERN VA AND CENTRAL NC BETWEEN 06-18Z. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...A
COLD FRONT (MORE-SO A DEWPOINT DISCONTINUITY AT THIS LATITUDE)
EXTENDED NORTHEAST FROM CENTRAL TN INTO EASTERN KY/SOUTHWEST VA AT
06Z...AND IS PROGGED TO PROGRESS INTO CENTRAL NC THIS AFTERNOON...
BECOMING INCREASINGLY WEST-EAST ORIENTED AND EVENTUALLY STALLING
NEAR THE NC/SC BORDER BY 00Z THIS EVENING. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN STALLED NEAR THE NC/SC BORDER THROUGH 12Z FRI.
CONVECTION:
07Z REGIONAL RADAR SHOWED A BROKEN LINE OF WEAKENING CONVECTION
EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHWEST TN/NC BORDER INTO THE NORTHWEST
PIEDMONT. UPPER LEVEL FORCING IN THE FORM OF CYCLONIC SHEAR
VORTICITY (ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE 125-KT H3 JET BEGINNING
TO NOSE INTO THE CAROLINAS) WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH 15Z THIS
MORNING. DESPITE THE APPROACHING FRONT...LOW-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS
LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL...AND ANY CONVERGENCE WILL BE WEAK/SHALLOW AS
THE FRONT SLOWLY PROGRESSES INTO CENTRAL NC BETWEEN 12-21Z.
INSTABILITY THIS MORNING IS MARGINAL...WITH THE LATEST SPC
MESOANALYSIS INDICATING NO MORE THAN 250 J/KG OF MLCAPE AT 07Z.
ADDITIONALLY...A LOW-LEVEL (800-900 MB) INVERSION IN PLACE ACROSS
CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING (ASSOC/W SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT ALOFT - DIAGNOSED VIA RUC H7 THETA-E) IS SERVING RATHER
EFFECTIVELY AS A CAP...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE LACK OF A LOW-LEVEL
FOCUS. WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND...EXPECT THE CURRENT BROKEN LINE OF
SHOWERS/ISOLD STORMS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT TO CONTINUE WEAKENING
THROUGH SUNRISE...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY NEAR THE
NC/VA BORDER. *IF* UPPER LEVEL FORCING IS SUFFICIENT TO ERODE THE
CAP AND INITIATE STRONG UPDRAFTS IN THE PRESENCE OF MEAGER
INSTABILITY PRIOR TO ~15Z...SUFFICIENT LOW/DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
PRESENT FOR SUPERCELLULAR ORGANIZATION AND AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR
DAMAGING WINDS OR AN ISOLD TORNADO.
DESPITE THE SURFACE FRONT MAKING SLOW PROGRESS THROUGH SOUTHERN/
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND THE POSSIBLE
PRESENCE OF MARGINAL SFC-BASED INSTABILITY SOUTH OF HWY 64 WHERE
DEWPOINTS WILL TAKE LONGER TO FALL IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG DIURNAL
HEATING...PRONOUNCED DRYING IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE MID/UPPER
LEVELS TODAY AS A DRIER AIRMASS ADVECTS INTO NC VIA SPEEDY WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT...AND WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL FORCING/
LAYER-LIFTING...IT SHOULD BE DIFFICULT FOR ANYTHING ASIDE FROM
DIURNAL CU OR TURKEY TOWERS TO DEVELOP AFTER 12-15Z. WILL INDICATE A
DRY FORECAST AFTER SUNRISE. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST
OVERNIGHT AS THE SURFACE FRONT STALLS NEAR THE NC/SC BORDER AND A
VERY DRY MID/UPPER LEVEL AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE.
TEMPERATURES:
1000-850 MB THICKNESSES TODAY ARE PROGGED TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...IN THE 1370-1390 METER RANGE. THESE THICKNESSES COMBINED
WITH MORNING LOWS IN THE LOWER/MID 60S AND PRONOUNCED DRYING
THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN (SUNNY SKIES) SUGGEST HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
IN FACT...HIGHS TODAY COULD WELL REACH 20-25F ABOVE NORMAL READINGS
THIS TIME OF YEAR (MID/UPPER 50S). MOS GUIDANCE IS INDICATING HIGHS
~80F AT RDU...80-82F AT FAY...AND 77-78F AT GSO...ALL OF WHICH SEEM
PRETTY REASONABLE BASED ON THE ABOVE FACTORS. WILL INDICATE HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...WARMEST SOUTH OF HWY
64. WEAK COLD ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
PROGRESSES FROM THE OH VALLEY TO THE DELMARVA IN THE WAKE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO STALL OUT NEAR THE NC/SC
BORDER LATER THIS EVENING. LOWS WILL HIGHLY DEPEND ON EXACTLY WHERE
THE FRONT STALLS OUT...AND THE TEMPERATURE FCST IS MOST UNCERTAIN
SOUTH OF HWY 64 TONIGHT. EXPECT LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER/MID 40S
NORTH OF HWY 64 TO MID/UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S SOUTH OF HWY 64...
WARMEST NEAR THE SC BORDER. -VINCENT
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM THURSDAY...
SHORTWAVE ENERGY CURRENTLY DIGGING INTO THE PACIFIC NW WILL PROGRESS
SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TONIGHT THEN EAST INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL TRACK
EAST THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT/
FRIDAY. DPVA/HEIGHT FALLS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WILL RESULT IN
CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT...WITH THE SURFACE LOW
DEEPENING AND TRACKING NORTHEAST INTO THE OH VALLEY BY 00Z SAT AS
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS AND AMPLIFIES AS IT PROGRESSES NORTHEAST INTO THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN MS RIVER VALLEY. WITH A DEEPENING SFC LOW WEST OF
THE APPALACHIANS...EXPECT STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW ON
FRIDAY...AND THE STALLED FRONT NEAR THE NC/SC BORDER IS EXPECTED TO
RAPIDLY LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL NC INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AS A
WARM FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT A SHORT PERIOD OF STRONG
WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT MID FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY/MID
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN/SHOWERS IN CENTRAL
NC TO OCCUR IN THAT TIME FRAME...WITH A LULL IN ACTIVITY LIKELY BY
MID/LATE AFTERNOON AS THE STRONGEST ISENTROPIC LIFT SHIFTS NORTH
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC IN ADVANCE OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT AND
LITTLE OR NOTHING IN THE WAY OF ADDITIONAL LOWER OR UPPER LEVEL
FORCING OVER THE AREA THROUGH 00Z SAT EVENING (UNIDIRECTIONAL
LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND NEUTRAL HEIGHTS ALOFT). THE LATEST 00Z GUIDANCE
SHOWS PRECIP AMOUNTS RANGING FROM A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO
~0.15"...HIGHEST NEAR THE VA BORDER. THIS MAKES SENSE...GIVEN THAT
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WILL SEE THE RELATIVE LONGEST PERIOD
OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AS THE SURFACE WARM FRONT TRACKS NORTHWARD FROM
THE NC/SC BORDER. WILL INDICATE THE BEST PRECIP CHANCES IN THE NORTH
AND THE LOWEST IN THE SOUTH. DESPITE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN OVER THE
AREA FOR AT LEAST PART OF THE DAY (ESP NORTH/NW PIEDMONT)...STRONG
WARM ADVECTION AND STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN
WELL-ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS AGAIN...ESPECIALLY WITH THE SOME BREAKS IN
CLOUD COVER POSSIBLE DURING MID/LATE AFTERNOON AS THE BEST
ISENTROPIC LIFT SHIFTS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. MOS GUIDANCE IS
INDICATING HIGHS RANGING FROM 70-78F...COOLEST NORTH/WARMEST
SOUTH...AND THIS LOOKS PRETTY REASONABLE BASED ON THE ABOVE
REASONING.
SEVERE THREAT:
A CONDITIONAL THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE PRESENT LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING AS A WARM/MOIST AIRMASS WITH AT LEAST
SOME SFC-BASED INSTABILITY BECOMES ESTABLISHED IN THE WAKE OF THE
WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLIER IN THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH LITTLE OR NO
LOWER/UPPER LEVEL FORCING IS EXPECTED TO BE PRESENT THROUGH ~00Z
SATURDAY (AS MENTIONED ABOVE)...THERE ARE AT LEAST TWO SCENARIOS
WHERE SEVERE WEATHER COULD DEVELOP. 1) A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE IN
WSW/SW FLOW ALOFT TRACKS OVER THE AREA DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON
AFTER AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION HAS OCCURRED (POSSIBLE BUT VERY
DIFFICULT TO ANTICIPATE AT THIS RANGE)...OR 2) AN MCS OR ORGANIZED
CONVECTION DEVELOPS UPSTREAM OF THE AREA AND MOVES DOWNSTREAM OF THE
ORIGINAL FORCING MECHANISMS INTO CENTRAL NC IN THE PRESENCE OF A
MOIST/MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS THAT CAN MAINTAIN THE
AFOREMENTIONED CONVECTION...PARTICULARLY IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG
LOW/DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS. -VINCENT
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 250 AM THURSDAY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (SOME POTENTIALLY SEVERE) ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FRIDAY NIGHT... AND SLOWLY
SHIFTS EAST THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY.
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO BE ONGOING TO START FRIDAY EVENING. THERE MAY ALSO BE
A SLIGHT SEVERE RISK THAT EITHER WILL EXTEND INTO THE EVENING FROM
THE AFTERNOON... OR POTENTIALLY ARRIVE FROM THE WEST DURING THE
EVENING OR OVERNIGHT. MUCH WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING AND POSITION OF
THE WARM FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING... AND
THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
WE WILL CARRY CHANCE POP FRIDAY EVENING AND NIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST
PROBS EXPECTED WEST AND NORTH (CLOSER TO THE RETREATING WARM FRONT
AND THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT). LOWS WILL BE WARM (WITH DEW POINTS
IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S AND A SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL SSW JET). EXPECT
PROBABLY NO LOWER THAN 60 FOR LOWS.
SATURDAY...THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE
LEAD COLD FRONT SATURDAY AS IT IS FORECAST TO PUSH EAST ACROSS NC.
WE WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARD THE PREFERRED OPERATIONAL EUROPEAN
MODEL IN PLACEMENT OF THE MAIN FRONT. THIS SUGGESTS THAT THE COLD
FRONT SHOULD BE ALONG THE APPALACHIANS AT 12Z/SAT WITH A BAND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EITHER OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT (PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH) OR ALONG THE FRONT ITSELF INTO OUR PIEDMONT BY THAT TIME.
THE FRONT AND PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH/BAND OF CONVECTION THEN TAKES MUCH
OF THE DAY TO PUSH THROUGH OUR REGION... REACHING THE COAST AROUND
00Z/SUN. THE FRONT THEN STALLS WITH LINGERING UPPER SUPPORT HANGING
BACK OVER THE APPALACHIANS SAT NIGHT... WITH ANOTHER SURFACE WAVE
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN OF GA/SC SAT NIGHT... SHIFTING
EAST AND OFFSHORE SUNDAY. THIS WOULD SUGGEST KEEPING RAIN IN THE
FORECAST MAINLY ACROSS THE EAST AND SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THE LATEST GFS/NAM CONTINUE TO SHOW LESS IN THE WAY OF
WAVE DEVELOPMENT. WE WILL LEAN TOWARD THE WETTER EC GIVEN ITS
STRONGER PERFORMANCE RECENTLY.
BOTTOM LINE...A THREAT (PROBABLY A SLIGHT RISK) OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A BAND OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS SHOULD AFFECT THE ENTIRE REGION FOR 3-6 HOURS TIME STARTING
IN THE WEST BEFORE DAYBREAK SATURDAY... THEN TRACKING SLOWLY EAST
ACROSS CENTRAL NC SATURDAY. QPF OF A HALF INCH TO ONE INCH WILL BE
LIKELY WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS. TURNING COOLER SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY WITH RAIN LIKELY EAST... AND A CHANCE OF RAIN WEST.
ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT QPF POSSIBLE MAINLY EAST AND SOUTH. HIGHS
SATURDAY 65-75 NW TO SE. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT 40S WEST/LOWER 50S SE.
HIGHS HOLDING IN THE 50S SUNDAY.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
IT APPEARS THAT WE ARE SET TO REVERT BACK TO A DEEPENING MID-UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL STATES... WITH RISING HEIGHTS ACROSS
THE SE STATES TUE-WED. BEFORE THAT OCCURS... IT APPEARS THAT MONDAY
WILL BE A CHILLY AND VARIABLY CLOUDY DAY AS THE CORE OF THE
MID-UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES.
MODELS ARE INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF A FINAL BUT STRONG
VORTICITY MAXIMUM TO ROTATE SE ACROSS NC OR VA MONDAY. DEPENDING ON
THE EVENTUAL TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THIS VORT MAX... WE COULD SEE A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AGAIN MONDAY. PARTIALS SUGGEST RAIN SHOWERS AND
THE THERMAL PROFILES INDICATE TEMPS SHOULD BE 40+ EVEN IF THE TRACK
IS SOUTH (COLDER FOR US). THEREFORE... ONLY A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS WILL BE FORECAST MONDAY.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY APPEAR TO BE IN LINE FOR SUN AND INCREASING
TEMPS AGAIN AFTER A NIGHT OR TWO AT OR BELOW 32.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 110 AM THURSDAY...
AFTER MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AS OF 06Z...MOIST LOW LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PRODUCE A MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCE OF IFR
CEILINGS BETWEEN 08-14Z THIS MORNING...LIKELY TO LAST LONGEST AT
KRWI AND KFAY. OTHERWISE...THE IMMEDIATE THREAT OF CONVECTION HAS
DIMINISHED...AND THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING WHETHER OR NOT
THE PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION ALONG THE SPINE OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL
SURVIVE IN THE LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS AND AFFECT CENTRAL NC TERMINALS
BETWEEN 08-12Z. HAVE INCLUDED ONLY TEMPORARY SHOWERS AT TRIAD
TERMINALS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY...BUT SUBSEQUENT
AMENDMENTS MAY BE NECESSARY IF OBSERVATIONAL DATA TRENDS SUGGEST THE
LINE WILL MAINTAIN ITSELF ALL THE WAY THROUGH CENTRAL NC.
OTHERWISE...A BREEZY SOUTHWEST WIND WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING...IN
STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE PARENT COLD FRONT THAT WILL
SETTLE SLOWLY THROUGH CENTRAL NC IN DRY FASHION LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT. CLEARING SKIES WILL ENSUE WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND MIXING
BY 13-15Z...AT WHICH TIME SURFACE WINDS WILL ALSO VEER TO A MORE
WESTERLY COMPONENT...WITH GUSTS INTO THE 20-25 KT RANGE...LATE
MORNING THROUGH SUNSET. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN A HIGH
PROBABILITY OF SUB-VFR STRATUS AND CONVECTION LATE FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 315 AM WEDNESDAY...
LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL OCCURRED OVER CENTRAL NC YESTERDAY EVENING
THROUGH THIS MORNING. A DRY FRONT WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS INTO THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON...EVENTUALLY STALLING NEAR THE SC BORDER TONIGHT. A
DRIER AIRMASS WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
THIS AFTERNOON. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL LIKELY FALL TO 30% OR
LOWER NORTH OF HWY 64. SOUTH OF HWY 64...MINIMUM RH`S THIS AFTERNOON
WILL HIGHLY DEPEND ON THE PROGRESS OF THE FRONT (AND THE DRIER
AIRMASS ADVECTING INTO THE AREA)...AND COULD RANGE ANYWHERE FROM
25-45%...HIGHEST NEAR THE SC BORDER. BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY...SUSTAINED AT ~15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-30 MPH.
THE COMBINATION OF LOW RH`S...LITTLE OR NO RECENT RAINFALL...AND
BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASED FIRE DANGER THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF HWY 64 (IN THE NORTHERN AND NW
PIEDMONT). WILL ISSUE AN INCREASED FIRE DANGER SPS FOR THE NORTHERN
2/3 OF CENTRAL NC...OMITTING THE FAR SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES WHERE
RH`S ARE MORE LIKELY TO REMAIN IN THE 35-45% RANGE. -VINCENT
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...BADGETT
AVIATION...MWS
FIRE WEATHER...VINCENT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
327 AM EST THU MAR 01 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL PROGRESS INTO THE AREA TODAY AND STALL NEAR THE
SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER TONIGHT. THE STALLED BOUNDARY WILL LIFT
RAPIDLY NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON FRIDAY...AS A DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND A POTENT
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE MOUNTAINS FROM THE WEST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM THURSDAY...
OVERVIEW:
AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER MICHIGAN AT 06Z WILL DEAMPLIFY AS IT
SLOWLY TRACKS EAST TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY 12Z...AND INTO NEW
ENGLAND BY 00Z THIS EVENING. A 125-KT H3 JET EXTENDING FROM WESTERN
TX INTO THE TN VALLEY AT 06Z IS PROGGED TO NOSE EAST INTO THE
CAROLINAS BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH CYCLONIC SHEAR
VORTICITY ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE JET INCREASING OVER
SOUTHERN VA AND CENTRAL NC BETWEEN 06-18Z. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...A
COLD FRONT (MORE-SO A DEWPOINT DISCONTINUITY AT THIS LATITUDE)
EXTENDED NORTHEAST FROM CENTRAL TN INTO EASTERN KY/SOUTHWEST VA AT
06Z...AND IS PROGGED TO PROGRESS INTO CENTRAL NC THIS AFTERNOON...
BECOMING INCREASINGLY WEST-EAST ORIENTED AND EVENTUALLY STALLING
NEAR THE NC/SC BORDER BY 00Z THIS EVENING. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN STALLED NEAR THE NC/SC BORDER THROUGH 12Z FRI.
CONVECTION:
07Z REGIONAL RADAR SHOWED A BROKEN LINE OF WEAKENING CONVECTION
EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHWEST TN/NC BORDER INTO THE NORTHWEST
PIEDMONT. UPPER LEVEL FORCING IN THE FORM OF CYCLONIC SHEAR
VORTICITY (ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE 125-KT H3 JET BEGINNING
TO NOSE INTO THE CAROLINAS) WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH 15Z THIS
MORNING. DESPITE THE APPROACHING FRONT...LOW-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS
LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL...AND ANY CONVERGENCE WILL BE WEAK/SHALLOW AS
THE FRONT SLOWLY PROGRESSES INTO CENTRAL NC BETWEEN 12-21Z.
INSTABILITY THIS MORNING IS MARGINAL...WITH THE LATEST SPC
MESOANALYSIS INDICATING NO MORE THAN 250 J/KG OF MLCAPE AT 07Z.
ADDITIONALLY...A LOW-LEVEL (800-900 MB) INVERSION IN PLACE ACROSS
CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING (ASSOC/W SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT ALOFT - DIAGNOSED VIA RUC H7 THETA-E) IS SERVING RATHER
EFFECTIVELY AS A CAP...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE LACK OF A LOW-LEVEL
FOCUS. WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND...EXPECT THE CURRENT BROKEN LINE OF
SHOWERS/ISOLD STORMS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT TO CONTINUE WEAKENING
THROUGH SUNRISE...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY NEAR THE
NC/VA BORDER. *IF* UPPER LEVEL FORCING IS SUFFICIENT TO ERODE THE
CAP AND INITIATE STRONG UPDRAFTS IN THE PRESENCE OF MEAGER
INSTABILITY PRIOR TO ~15Z...SUFFICIENT LOW/DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
PRESENT FOR SUPERCELLULAR ORGANIZATION AND AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR
DAMAGING WINDS OR AN ISOLD TORNADO.
DESPITE THE SURFACE FRONT MAKING SLOW PROGRESS THROUGH SOUTHERN/
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND THE POSSIBLE
PRESENCE OF MARGINAL SFC-BASED INSTABILITY SOUTH OF HWY 64 WHERE
DEWPOINTS WILL TAKE LONGER TO FALL IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG DIURNAL
HEATING...PRONOUNCED DRYING IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE MID/UPPER
LEVELS TODAY AS A DRIER AIRMASS ADVECTS INTO NC VIA SPEEDY WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT...AND WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL FORCING/
LAYER-LIFTING...IT SHOULD BE DIFFICULT FOR ANYTHING ASIDE FROM
DIURNAL CU OR TURKEY TOWERS TO DEVELOP AFTER 12-15Z. WILL INDICATE A
DRY FORECAST AFTER SUNRISE. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST
OVERNIGHT AS THE SURFACE FRONT STALLS NEAR THE NC/SC BORDER AND A
VERY DRY MID/UPPER LEVEL AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE.
TEMPERATURES:
1000-850 MB THICKNESSES TODAY ARE PROGGED TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...IN THE 1370-1390 METER RANGE. THESE THICKNESSES COMBINED
WITH MORNING LOWS IN THE LOWER/MID 60S AND PRONOUNCED DRYING
THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN (SUNNY SKIES) SUGGEST HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
IN FACT...HIGHS TODAY COULD WELL REACH 20-25F ABOVE NORMAL READINGS
THIS TIME OF YEAR (MID/UPPER 50S). MOS GUIDANCE IS INDICATING HIGHS
~80F AT RDU...80-82F AT FAY...AND 77-78F AT GSO...ALL OF WHICH SEEM
PRETTY REASONABLE BASED ON THE ABOVE FACTORS. WILL INDICATE HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...WARMEST SOUTH OF HWY
64. WEAK COLD ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
PROGRESSES FROM THE OH VALLEY TO THE DELMARVA IN THE WAKE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO STALL OUT NEAR THE NC/SC
BORDER LATER THIS EVENING. LOWS WILL HIGHLY DEPEND ON EXACTLY WHERE
THE FRONT STALLS OUT...AND THE TEMPERATURE FCST IS MOST UNCERTAIN
SOUTH OF HWY 64 TONIGHT. EXPECT LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER/MID 40S
NORTH OF HWY 64 TO MID/UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S SOUTH OF HWY 64...
WARMEST NEAR THE SC BORDER. -VINCENT
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM THURSDAY...
TO BE POSTED SHORTLY...
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 250 AM THURSDAY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (SOME POTENTIALLY SEVERE) ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FRIDAY NIGHT... AND SLOWLY
SHIFTS EAST THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY.
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO BE ONGOING TO START FRIDAY EVENING. THERE MAY ALSO BE
A SLIGHT SEVERE RISK THAT EITHER WILL EXTEND INTO THE EVENING FROM
THE AFTERNOON... OR POTENTIALLY ARRIVE FROM THE WEST DURING THE
EVENING OR OVERNIGHT. MUCH WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING AND POSITION OF
THE WARM FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING... AND
THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
WE WILL CARRY CHANCE POP FRIDAY EVENING AND NIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST
PROBS EXPECTED WEST AND NORTH (CLOSER TO THE RETREATING WARM FRONT
AND THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT). LOWS WILL BE WARM (WITH DEW POINTS
IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S AND A SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL SSW JET). EXPECT
PROBABLY NO LOWER THAN 60 FOR LOWS.
SATURDAY...THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE
LEAD COLD FRONT SATURDAY AS IT IS FORECAST TO PUSH EAST ACROSS NC.
WE WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARD THE PREFERRED OPERATIONAL EUROPEAN
MODEL IN PLACEMENT OF THE MAIN FRONT. THIS SUGGESTS THAT THE COLD
FRONT SHOULD BE ALONG THE APPALACHIANS AT 12Z/SAT WITH A BAND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EITHER OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT (PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH) OR ALONG THE FRONT ITSELF INTO OUR PIEDMONT BY THAT TIME.
THE FRONT AND PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH/BAND OF CONVECTION THEN TAKES MUCH
OF THE DAY TO PUSH THROUGH OUR REGION... REACHING THE COAST AROUND
00Z/SUN. THE FRONT THEN STALLS WITH LINGERING UPPER SUPPORT HANGING
BACK OVER THE APPALACHIANS SAT NIGHT... WITH ANOTHER SURFACE WAVE
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN OF GA/SC SAT NIGHT... SHIFTING
EAST AND OFFSHORE SUNDAY. THIS WOULD SUGGEST KEEPING RAIN IN THE
FORECAST MAINLY ACROSS THE EAST AND SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THE LATEST GFS/NAM CONTINUE TO SHOW LESS IN THE WAY OF
WAVE DEVELOPMENT. WE WILL LEAN TOWARD THE WETTER EC GIVEN ITS
STRONGER PERFORMANCE RECENTLY.
BOTTOM LINE...A THREAT (PROBABLY A SLIGHT RISK) OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A BAND OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS SHOULD AFFECT THE ENTIRE REGION FOR 3-6 HOURS TIME STARTING
IN THE WEST BEFORE DAYBREAK SATURDAY... THEN TRACKING SLOWLY EAST
ACROSS CENTRAL NC SATURDAY. QPF OF A HALF INCH TO ONE INCH WILL BE
LIKELY WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS. TURNING COOLER SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY WITH RAIN LIKELY EAST... AND A CHANCE OF RAIN WEST.
ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT QPF POSSIBLE MAINLY EAST AND SOUTH. HIGHS
SATURDAY 65-75 NW TO SE. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT 40S WEST/LOWER 50S SE.
HIGHS HOLDING IN THE 50S SUNDAY.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
IT APPEARS THAT WE ARE SET TO REVERT BACK TO A DEEPENING MID-UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL STATES... WITH RISING HEIGHTS ACROSS
THE SE STATES TUE-WED. BEFORE THAT OCCURS... IT APPEARS THAT MONDAY
WILL BE A CHILLY AND VARIABLY CLOUDY DAY AS THE CORE OF THE
MID-UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES.
MODELS ARE INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF A FINAL BUT STRONG
VORTICITY MAXIMUM TO ROTATE SE ACROSS NC OR VA MONDAY. DEPENDING ON
THE EVENTUAL TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THIS VORT MAX... WE COULD SEE A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AGAIN MONDAY. PARTIALS SUGGEST RAIN SHOWERS AND
THE THERMAL PROFILES INDICATE TEMPS SHOULD BE 40+ EVEN IF THE TRACK
IS SOUTH (COLDER FOR US). THEREFORE... ONLY A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS WILL BE FORECAST MONDAY.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY APPEAR TO BE IN LINE FOR SUN AND INCREASING
TEMPS AGAIN AFTER A NIGHT OR TWO AT OR BELOW 32.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 110 AM THURSDAY...
AFTER MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AS OF 06Z...MOIST LOW LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PRODUCE A MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCE OF IFR
CEILINGS BETWEEN 08-14Z THIS MORNING...LIKELY TO LAST LONGEST AT
KRWI AND KFAY. OTHERWISE...THE IMMEDIATE THREAT OF CONVECTION HAS
DIMINISHED...AND THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING WHETHER OR NOT
THE PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION ALONG THE SPINE OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL
SURVIVE IN THE LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS AND AFFECT CENTRAL NC TERMINALS
BETWEEN 08-12Z. HAVE INCLUDED ONLY TEMPORARY SHOWERS AT TRIAD
TERMINALS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY...BUT SUBSEQUENT
AMENDMENTS MAY BE NECESSARY IF OBSERVATIONAL DATA TRENDS SUGGEST THE
LINE WILL MAINTAIN ITSELF ALL THE WAY THROUGH CENTRAL NC.
OTHERWISE...A BREEZY SOUTHWEST WIND WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING...IN
STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE PARENT COLD FRONT THAT WILL
SETTLE SLOWLY THROUGH CENTRAL NC IN DRY FASHION LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT. CLEARING SKIES WILL ENSUE WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND MIXING
BY 13-15Z...AT WHICH TIME SURFACE WINDS WILL ALSO VEER TO A MORE
WESTERLY COMPONENT...WITH GUSTS INTO THE 20-25 KT RANGE...LATE
MORNING THROUGH SUNSET. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN A HIGH
PROBABILITY OF SUB-VFR STRATUS AND CONVECTION LATE FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 315 AM WEDNESDAY...
LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL OCCURRED OVER CENTRAL NC YESTERDAY EVENING
THROUGH THIS MORNING. A DRY FRONT WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS INTO THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON...EVENTUALLY STALLING NEAR THE SC BORDER TONIGHT. A
DRIER AIRMASS WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
THIS AFTERNOON. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL LIKELY FALL TO 30% OR
LOWER NORTH OF HWY 64. SOUTH OF HWY 64...MINIMUM RH`S THIS AFTERNOON
WILL HIGHLY DEPEND ON THE PROGRESS OF THE FRONT (AND THE DRIER
AIRMASS ADVECTING INTO THE AREA)...AND COULD RANGE ANYWHERE FROM
25-45%...HIGHEST NEAR THE SC BORDER. BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY...SUSTAINED AT ~15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-30 MPH.
THE COMBINATION OF LOW RH`S...LITTLE OR NO RECENT RAINFALL...AND
BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASED FIRE DANGER THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF HWY 64 (IN THE NORTHERN AND NW
PIEDMONT). WILL ISSUE AN INCREASED FIRE DANGER SPS FOR THE NORTHERN
2/3 OF CENTRAL NC...OMITTING THE FAR SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES WHERE
RH`S ARE MORE LIKELY TO REMAIN IN THE 35-45% RANGE. -VINCENT
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...BADGETT
AVIATION...MWS
FIRE WEATHER...VINCENT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1234 AM EST THU MAR 1 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND WILL BE OFF THE
COAST THURSDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH FROM THE SOUTH
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE CENTERED OVER
THE CAROLINAS TUESDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 AM THURSDAY...BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AFFECTING THE
COASTAL PLAINS MOVING TOWARD THE SOUNDS COUNTIES CURRENTLY. THERE
HAVE BEEN SOME EMBEDDED LIGHTNING STRIKES AND BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WITH A FEW OF THESE CELLS...BUT THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS
RATHER STABLE ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND THINK THE SEVERE
THREAT WILL BE LIMITED FOR THE VERY SHORT TERM. STILL SOME CONCERN
WITH AXIS OF INSTABILITY ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA AND ALABAMA WHICH
WILL BE DRAWN THIS WAY WITH STRONG 850 MB JET OVER THE NEXT 3 TO 5
HOURS. EXPECTATION IS STILL FOR PRECIP TO MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY ON
THURSDAY MORNING AS AXIS OF HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER AND SPECIFIC
HUMIDITY MOVES OFFSHORE BY 12Z OR S0. MADE CHANGE TO LATEST
FORECAST TO RAISE POPS OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS TO
LIKELY AND TO HIGH CHANCE OVER SOUTHERN AREAS AS A LARGE AREA OF
MOSTLY LIGHTER RAINFALL MAY AFFECT THE SOUTHERN COASTAL AREAS IN
THE NEXT 2 TO 4 HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WED...TIME SECTIONS SHOW DEEP WESTERLY FLOW DURING THE
DAY THURSDAY WITH A VERY DRY AIRMASS. CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT IN
THE MORNING WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IN THE AFTERNOON. ALL THESE
FACTORS WILL COMBINE TO MAKE FOR A VERY WARM DAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 60S ON THE OUTER BANKS WITH MID 70S TO AROUND 80
FOR MUCH OF THE INLAND AREAS. A FEW SPOTS ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN
WILL LIKELY SEE LOWER 80S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WED...DRY AND MILD THU NIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRES PASSES
ACROSS JUST TO THE N...LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S. WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT N THRU THE REGION FRI. ALMOST ALL MDLS SHOW DECENT BAND OF
MOISTURE WITH WEAK ISENT UPGLIDE OVER THE THE AREA SO HAVE MAINLY
CHC POP INLAND TO SLIGHT CHC CST BASE ON BLEND OF MDL POPS. WITH
WARM AIR GRAD OVERSPREADING REGION HAVE HIGHS RANGING FROM LOWER
70S SOUTH TO LOWER 60S NE CST. AREA WILL BE IN WARM SECTOR FRI
NIGHT WITH STILL SOME LINGERING SHRA POSS NRN TIER...ESPCLY IN THE
EVENING. LOWS WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH 55 TO 60 MOST SPOTS.
STRONG COLD FRONT AHEAD OF BIG UPR TRF WILL APPROACH SAT AND CROSS
THE REGION SAT NIGHT. WARM AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE CONDITIONS
EXPECTED SAT AFTN AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH INCREASING CHC OF SHRA
AND A FEW TSRA. HAVE CONT PREV TREND OF LIKELY POPS INLAND TO CHC
CST SAT AFTN. STRONG LOW LVL WIND FIELDS COMBINED WITH THE
EXPECTED INSTAB AND FORCING WILL LEAD TO A THREAT OF SOME STRONG
TO POSS SVR STORMS SAT AFTN. FRONT WILL GRAD CROSS THE REGION SAT
NIGHT...GFS STILL A LITTLE FASTER THEN ECMWF BUT BOTH SHOW DEEP
MOISTURE AND LOTS OF RAIN OVER THE AREA SAT NIGHT. HAVE HIGH END
LIKELY POPS ALL AREAS AND RAISED QPF AMOUNTS TO OVER 1/2 INCH.
BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW WELL OVER 1 INCH OF RAIN SAT NIGHT SO
LATER SHIFTS MAY BE ABLE TO RAISE BOTH POP AND QPF AMOUNTS. DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL GRAD SLIDE OFFSHORE SUNDAY WITH RAIN ENDING FROM W
TO E BY LATE MORN. UPR TRF WILL PIVOTS THRU SUN NIGHT AND MON
HOWEVER MOISTURE LOOKS LIMITED WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED AT THIS
POINT. HGTS ALOFT WILL BE RISING TUE AND WED WITH STRONG SFC HIGH
PRES OVER THE REGION TUE...SLIDING OFFSHORE WED. TEMPS WILL BE
NEAR TO POSS A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL SUN INTO TUE AS UPR TRF
CROSSES. AS HGTS BUILD TEMPS SHLD MODERATE AGAIN MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
AS OF 1235 AM THURSDAY...VERY TRICKY TAF FORECASTS CONTINUE AS
CEILINGS HAVE REMAINED WELL ABOVE 3000 FT AND IN THE VFR FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY. EVEN THE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOT HAVING MUCH EFFECT
ON THE CEILINGS/VSBYS. WILL CARRY A 3-HOUR TEMPO GROUP TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS AND PERHAPS A BRIEF DROP IN
CEILINGS TO NEAR MVFR RANGE. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR BY 13Z OR SO WITH
VFR TO PREVAIL THRU THURSDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WED...VFR THU NIGHT AS HIGH PRES CROSSES TO THE N. WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT N THRU REGION FRI...THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING
CLOUDS WITH WDLY SCT TO SCT SHRA...SOME MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSS AS LOW LVLS MOISTEN. MORE NUMEROUS SHRA AND POSS A FEW GUSTY
TSRA EXPECTED SAT AFTN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WITH PDS OF MVFR OR
IFR EXPECTED. WIDESPREAD IFR EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SAT NIGHT WITH
GOOD CVRG OF RAIN AND COLD AIR ADVECTION IN WAKE OF FRONT. SHRA
AND ASSOC IFR/MVFR SHLD END SUN MORN WITH VFR REST OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND THURS/
AS OF 1235 AM THURSDAY...SOME GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KNOTS AT DUCK PIER
AND HATTERAS COAST GUARD STATION AT 05Z. THE LATEST RUC13 STILL
SHOWS SW WINDS IN THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE OVER MOST OF THE WATERS
FROM 08Z THRU ABOUT 14Z THIS MORNING. SEAS ARE GENERALLY 6 FEET
OVER SOUTHERN WATERS AND 3 TO 4 FEET UP NORTH. ONLY MINOR CHANGES
TO NEEDED TO CURRENT MARINE FORECAST WHICH HOLDS ON TO A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WHICH EXPIRES ON THE SOUNDS AT 12Z AND ELSEWHERE
THIS AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WED...LIGHT MAINLY NE WINDS WILL DEVELOP THU NIGHT AS
WEAK BNDRY SLIDES OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE N. AS
HIGH SLIDES OFF THE CST FRI WARM FRONT WILL LIFT N THRU THE REGION
WITH WINDS BECOMING S 10 TO 15 KT. S/SW WINDS WILL GRAD INCREASE
FRI NIGHT AND PEAK SAT AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SOLID SCA
WINDS EXPECTED MOST WTRS WITH SEAS REACHING 8 TO 9 FT OUTER CNTRL
AND SRN WTRS. FRONT WILL CROSS SAT NIGHT WITH MAINLY NW WINDS 10
TO 20 KTS SUNDAY...SEAS SHLD SUBSIDE BELOW SCA LVLS LATER SAT
NIGHT OR SUNDAY WITH THE DECREASING OFFSHORE FLOW. WNW WINDS WILL
CONT AT 15 TO 20 KTS INTO MON AS INIT HIGH PRES BUILDS TO THE
S...WINDS MAY BECOME MORE NW AT 20 TO 25 KTS LATER MON AS UPR TRF
PIVOTS THRU BUT WILL KEEP BELOW SCA LVLS FOR NOW. SEAS WILL BE
MAINLY 3 TO 5 FT SUN AND MON WITH FAR OUTER CNTRL WTRS FLIRTING
WITH 6 FT.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ152-
154-156-158.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ150.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HSA
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...CTC/RF
MARINE...CTC/RF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1121 PM CST WED FEB 29 2012
.SHORT TERM...
647 PM CST WED FEB 29 2012
MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION THAT OCCURRED THIS AFTERNOON HAS EITHER
DIMINISHED OR SHIFTED OFF TO THE EAST. THE EASTWARD SHIFT IS A
RESULT OF THE UPPER LOW NOW OVER EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN PER 00Z
WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC ANALYSIS. THE REST OF THE DIMINISHING
PRECIPITATION IS MOST LIKELY DUE TO A COMBINATION OF THE ENTIRE
SYSTEM FILLING...AS WELL AS THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING REDUCING
INSTABILITY FROM THE COLD AIR CORE WITH THE UPPER LOW. STILL
CANNOT RULE OUT A LITTLE DRIZZLE OR LIGHT SNOW MAINLY SOUTH OF
I-90 WHERE A DEFORMATION ZONE IS DISSIPATING...BUT ONLY KEPT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THERE AT 20 PERCENT. IT IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE
NOTHING HAPPENS. ALSO...HAVE EXPERIENCED SOME FOG UP AT OUR OFFICE
ON THE LA CROSSE RIDGE. THIS FOG APPEARS TO HAVE FORMED FROM
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS. WITH THE SURFACE LOW
NEAR WISCONSIN DELLS AND SHIFTING EAST...A NORTHWEST BREEZE WILL
PICK UP. THIS BREEZE SHOULD HELP TO IMPROVE VISIBILITIES ON RIDGE
TOPS WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ADDED THIS FOG MENTION TO THE
FORECAST.
HAVE LET ALL HAZARDS EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED FOR 6 PM. NEXT FOCUS FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SEE PREVIOUS
SHORT TERM DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS.
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
353 PM CST WED FEB 29 2012
ON TUESDAY...THE 29.12Z MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT THERE WILL BE
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. BOTH THE ECMWF ARE SUGGESTING THAT TEMPERATURES
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR WILL CLIMB INTO THE
50S. WHILE THESE TEMPERATURES LOOK REASONABLE...THERE IS SOME
CONCERN ON HOW WARM TEMPERATURES WILL GET ACROSS THE AREAS WHICH
RECEIVED THE DEEP SNOW PACK LAST NIGHT. THE ALL BLEND AND CONS
BLEND WOULD SUGGEST TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S. HOWEVER THIS
LOOKS TO BE TOO WARM WITH MUCH SNOW ON THE GROUND...SO COOLED THE
TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE LOWER AND MID 40S.
&&
.AVIATION...THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY
1121 PM CST WED FEB 29 2012
STRATUS PERSISTS ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION
IN THE WAKE OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HEADING EAST THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES. CEILINGS HAVE FALLEN TO LIFR/IFR AT KRST...AIDED BY
NIGHTTIME COOLING. MEANWHILE AT KLSE...A PATCH OF CLEARER SKIES
MOVED THROUGH...TEMPORARILY SCATTERING THE MVFR CLOUDS OUT. THE
MVFR CEILINGS HAVE SINCE MOVED BACK IN. ANTICIPATING THAT THE
STRATUS WILL HOLD THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING WITH PERHAPS SOME
SLIGHT RISE AS DRIER AIR OVER CENTRAL MINNESOTA WORKS IN.
VISIBILITIES THROUGHOUT THE MORNING ANTICIPATING TO HOLD AT
VFR...THOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE KRST DROPS BRIEFLY DOWN TO MVFR PRIOR
TO 09Z. BETTER CHANCE FOR CEILINGS TO RISE COMES DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND A SURFACE RIDGE CURRENTLY
OVER THE DAKOTAS MOVING THROUGH. THERE ARE SIGNS THAT THE MVFR
STRATUS MAY SCATTER OR CLEAR OUT AROUND 00Z IN MODEL DATA. HAVE
FOLLOWED THIS IDEA...BUT AN ALTOSTRATUS DECK SHOULD QUICKLY COME
IN. THIS ALTOSTRATUS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVING INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA. SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY BEGIN TO FALL
OUT OF THIS ALTOSTRATUS AROUND 06Z AT KRST...WHICH WILL BE
CONSIDERED IN THE NEXT TAF FORECAST.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
353 PM CST WED FEB 29 2012
A GOOD DEAL OF PRECIPITATION FELL LAST NIGHT AS THE MAIN SURGE OF
MOIST AIR ARRIVED. MORNING PRECIPITATION REPORTS INDICATE BETWEEN A
HALF-INCH AND THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA AND
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. SOME MINOR WITHIN BANK RISES ON TRIBUTARY
CREEKS AND RIVERS HAS OCCURRED.
FROM SOUTHEAST MN INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WI...AMOUNTS WERE HIGHER
WITH WIDESPREAD REPORTS BETWEEN 1 AND 1.5 INCHES. SOME SPOTS SAW
JUST OVER 1.75 INCHES OF WATER. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS WERE SEEN FROM
THE ZUMBRO AND WHITEWATER WATERSHEDS...INTO THE TREMPEALEAU AND
BLACK RIVER BASINS. SIGNIFICANT RISES ARE OCCURING IN THESE RIVER
SYSTEMS...WITH SOME SPOTS GETTING CLOSE TO BANKFULL AND FLOOD STAGE.
CURRENTLY...THE SYSTEM IS SPINNING OVERHEAD...DROPPING MORE SNOW AND
DRIZZLE. THIS SHOULD NOT AMOUNT TO A GREAT DEAL MORE WATER CONTENT.
SO THE FEELING IS WE WILL SEE THE MAJORITY OF RIVERS PEAK AND FALL
TONIGHT...IF THEY HAVE NOT ALREADY DONE SO.
THIS RAINFALL ON THE FROZEN SOIL ALSO LED TO WIDESPREAD PONDING OF
WATER...AS IT COULD NOT SOAK IN.
THE STORM DROPPED OVER 15 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE UPPER BLACK
RIVER BASIN...SO AS THIS MELTS...EXPECT THE BLACK TO CONTINUE
RUNNING HIGHER THAN NORMAL INTO NEXT WEEK.
WE ARE ALSO MONITORING THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK. ANY ADDITIONAL WATER COULD LEAD TO RENEWED RISES.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
647 PM CST WED FEB 29 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...AJ
HYDROLOGY...WELVAERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
1039 PM CST WED FEB 29 2012
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW OCCLUDED LOW
PRESSURE NOW ENTERING SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON.
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS MAIN CIRCULATION HAS BEEN BLOSSOMING ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON...WITH VSBYS DROPPING
TO 3/4SM IN LIGHT SNOW FROM WISCONSIN RAPIDS TO WAUSAU.
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS HAVE WARMED INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S
OVER THE FOX VALLEY...BAYSHORE...AND LAKESHORE...WHERE PRECIP HAS
BEEN MAINLY RAIN AND DRIZZLE THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE LOW TRACKS
ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS EVENING...PRECIP TYPE AND
ACCUMULATIONS ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.
TONIGHT...OCCLUDED LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ENE ACROSS CENTRAL
WISCONSIN THIS EVENING. WILL NO LONGER BE FEELING THE EFFECTS OF
THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT...BUT MOISTURE WRAPPING ALL THE WAY AROUND
INTO THE COMMA HEAD WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CONTINUING
FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING. THE HEAVIEST PRECIP SHOULD FALL WITHIN AND
ON THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER WHICH SHOULD RUN
FROM ABOUT MARSHFIELD TO DOOR COUNTY. BECAUSE COLDER AIR TO -6C AT
850MB WILL FILTER ACROSS NORTHEAST WISCONSIN...PRECIPITATION TYPE
WILL CHANGE TO ALL SNOW...EVEN NEXT TO THE LAKESHORE. AN ADDITIONAL
INCH OR TWO OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE NORTHWEST OF THE FOX VALLEY AND
BAY SHORE AND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THIS EVENING WHERE
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 31-34 DEGREE RANGE. ABOVE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES WILL INITIALLY LIMIT ACCUMS OVER EAST-CENTRAL AND FAR
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN...BUT THOSE LOCATIONS COULD STILL SEE A HALF
INCH TO AN INCH AS TEMPS FALL THIS EVENING. BECAUSE OF THE
POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW WHICH COULD LEAD TO
RENEWED TRAVEL WOES...WILL LEAVE WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES ALONE.
SNOW WILL BE PUSHING ON TO THE EAST BY LATE IN THE EVENING LEAVING
CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILING ACROSS THE REGION. PLENTY OF FLURRY
ACTIVITY EXISTING ALL THE WAY TO WESTERN MINNESOTA...SO WILL HAVE TO
LEAVE A MENTION THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. LOW TEMPS RANGING
FROM THE MID 20S WEST TO AROUND 30 EAST.
THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE EAST TO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES. CYCLONIC FLOW WILL HANG AROUND FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING...SO
FIGURE SKY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN CLOUDY. SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
ARE LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON WHEN THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THINS OUT
AND THE FLOW BECOMES LIGHT AND WESTERLY. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO
AROUND 40F.
.LONG TERM...THU NGT THRU NXT WED. MDLS HAVE COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO A BROAD LONGWAVE TROF PUSHING ACROSS THE
CONUS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. STILL WATCHING
A SYSTEM PRECEDING THIS TROF WHICH COULD BRING A MIX OF PCPN TYPES
TO NE WI ON FRI. MEAN FLOW TENDS TO FLATTEN BY EARLY NXT WEEK
ALLOWING FOR MILD PACIFIC AIR TO RUSH ACROSS THE CONUS. DEPENDING
ON THE AMOUNT OF SNOW STILL ON THE GROUND...SOME PARTS OF CNTRL/
E-CNTRL WI COULD PUSH THE 50 DEG MARK BY TUE BEFORE THE NXT CDFNT
ARRIVES WITH THE NXT CHC OF PCPN.
THE LONGWAVE TROF MOVES THRU THE ROCKIES THU NGT AND ENTERS THE
PLAINS TOWARD DAYBREAK. AS THIS OCCURS...A SFC LOW IS FCST TO DVLP
OVER THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS AND MOVE NE TOWARD THE OZARKS/MO VALLEY
AREA. WAA TO OVERSPREAD WI WITH ENUF MSTR EVIDENT TO BRING PCPN
INTO PARTS OF THE FCST AFTER MIDNGT. TEMPS WOULD BE COLD ENUF SUCH
THAT ANY PCPN WOULD BE SNOW...BUT ANY ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE VERY
MINOR.
QSTNS REMAIN AS TO THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SFC LOW AS IT HEADS NE
TOWARD SRN SECTIONS OF THE GREAT LKS ON FRI. THE NAM REMAINS A
WESTWARD TRACK OUTLIER PRIMARILY DUE TO TRYING TO PHASE A NRN
PIECE OF SHORTWAVE TROF WITH THE SFC LOW. THE GEM MODEL TRACKS THE
SFC LOW NEWD INTO SW/CNTRL SECTIONS OF LWR MI...WHILE THE GFS/UKMET/
ECMWF NOW ALL PREFER A MORE ERN ROUTE AND TAKE THE LOW PRES TOWARD
NE INDIANA/SE LWR MI. SINCE THIS SYSTEM IS JUST COMING ASHORE TODAY
(WED)...TRACK WL LIKELY WAFFLE A BIT MORE BEFORE SETTLING DOWN...
THUS HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE MORE CONSISTENT GFS/UKMET/ECMWF WHICH
WOULD BRING AN INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION TO NE WI. HAVE RAISED
POPS TO LIKELY FOR ALMOST THE ENTIRE FCST AERA AND GONE MORE SNOW
THAN RAIN FOR ERN WI.
SNOW CHCS TO CONT THRU AT LEAST FRI EVENING BEFORE TAPERING OFF
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS THE SFC LOW MOVES INTO SE ONTARIO. COULD
SEE AN ADDL INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION...MAINLY ACROSS THE NRN
WI. SYSTEM CONTS TO LIFT NE TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON SAT
WITH A TRAILING SHORTWAVE TROF/EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES STILL MOVING
THRU WI. WL NEED TO CARRY SOME SNOW SHWR ACTIVITY THRU THE DAY
WITH THE BETTER CHCS ACROSS THE NORTH AS WINDS TURN W-NW WITH SOME
PSBL LK ENHANCEMENT. TEMPS TO CONT A DOWNWARD TREND WITH HI TEMPS
GENERALLY IN THE 30-35 DEG RANGE.
THE LONGWAVE TROF IS THEN EXPECTED TO MVOE THRU THE RGN SAT NGT
INTO SUNDAY WITH VARIOUS PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING SE IN
THE NW FLOW ALOFT. NE WI ALSO RESIDE UNDER THE FAVORABLE LEFT EXIT
RGN OF THE UPR JET FOR ADDED LIFT. EXPECT TO SEE AT LEAST ISOLATED
SNOW SHWRS ACROSS THE FCST AREA BOTH SAT NGT AND SUNDAY WITH A
MINOR ACCUMULATION PSBL WHERE ANY SNOW SHWRS BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED.
SUNDAY ALSO LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED FCST WITH
MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 25-30 DEG RANGE. A WEAK AREA OF HI PRES IS
THEN FCST TO BUILD ACROSS THE WRN GREAT LKS RGN SUNDAY NGT AND
RESIDE TO OUR EAST ON MON. ANY LINGERING SNOW SHWRS SHOULD END
RATHER QUICKLY WITH WINDS BACKING TO THE S-SW BY MON ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE HI PRES. COOL START TO MON WL LIMIT AMOUNT OF
DIURNAL WARMING EVEN AS A SURGE OF WARMER AIR ALOFT PUSHES INTO
THE STATE.
INCREASING S-SW WINDS MON NGT WL SEND A WRMFNT NWD WITH MUCH
MILDER AIR STREAMING INTO NE WI. A NEW...BROAD UPR TROF IS PROGGED
TO MOVE INTO THE CNTRL CONUS ON TUE AND HELP PUSH A CDFNT ACROSS
THE UPR MIDWEST. MOST OF THE FORCING/LIFT APRS TO BE BEHIND THE
FNT...THUS HAVE KEPT TUE DRY AND MILD WITH MAX TEMPS SURPASSING
THE 40 DEG MARK. IF CLOUDS CAN STAY AWAY LONG ENUF...PARTS OF
CNTRL/E-CNTRL WI COULD REACH 50 DEGS. THE CDFNT PUSHES THRU WI TUE
NGT AND THEN THE MDLS DVLP SEVERAL WAVES ALONG THE FNT WHICH WOULD
HELP FOCUS PCPN ACROSS THE FCST AREA ON WED. BASED ON PROJECTED
LOCATION OF THE CDFNT AND SFC WAVES...HAVE GONE WITH A HI CHC POP
FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF NE WI. ANOTHER PBLM WL BE PCPN TYPE AS
COOLER AIR TO SETTLE OVER THE NW HALF OF WI. HAVE GONE WITH A
RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR N-CNTRL WI...BUT KEPT PCPN AS ALL RAIN IN THE
CENTRAL AND EAST.
&&
.AVIATION...MVFR CIGS OF 1500 TO 3000 FT AGL ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA OVERNIGHT AND PERHAPS A FEW SNOW FLURRIES.
RDM
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
637 AM EST THU MAR 1 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT MAY STILL PRODUCE SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTH INTO THE AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE, CONDITIONS WILL
BE DRY AND SEASONABLE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SHOWERS LATE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PER RECENT SURFACE AND RADAR DATA, ALONG WITH HRRR AND WRF-NMM
MODEL OUTPUT, EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS OF RAIN AND POSSIBLY
FLURRIES LINGERING ACROSS THE NORTH THROUGH MIDDAY. FARTHER
SOUTH, NAM MODEL PROFILES INDICATE VARIABLE CLOUDINESS.
GFS AND NAM MOS INDICATING TEMPERATURES ONLY REBOUNDING A COUPLE
DEGREES BY THIS AFTERNOON, MAKING DAYTIME HIGHS NEAR NORMAL.
NAM MODEL PROFILES SHOW WINDS CAN GUST TO 25-30 MPH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
EASTBOUND HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A DRY BREAK TONIGHT, WITH
LOWS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL.
SREF MODEL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO SHOW A WELL DEVELOPED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM, MOVING NORTHEAST FROM OKLAHOMA TO MICHIGAN, WILL START
PRODUCING SHOWERS ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
NAM AND GFS MOS SHOW HIGHS FRIDAY CAN BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES WARMER
THAN NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SREF MODEL OUTPUT SHOWS ONCE THE LOW PRESSURE REACHES MICHIGAN, IT
WILL PUSH COLD FRONTAL BANDS OF SHOWERS EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY.
ECMWF MODEL OUTPUT THEN SHOWS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE
FURTHER COOLING SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY, WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS.
ENSUING HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD PROMOTE DRY CONDITIONS AND MODERATING
TEMPERATURES MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NAM MODEL PROFILES SHOW COLD POOL STRATOCUMULUS TO OCCASIONALLY
PRODUCE MVFR CEILINGS TODAY, PARTICULARLY FROM PIT NORTH. ISOLATED
MVFR VISIBILITIES MAY BRIEFLY OCCUR WITH MIXED SHOWERS NORTH.
SURFACE WINDS FROM THE WEST CAN GUST TO 25-30 KTS AT TIMES.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENSURE VFR AND LESS WIND TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
VFR INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THEN RESTRICTIONS AND SHOWERS POSSIBLE
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS
NORTHEAST AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT WILL PROMOTE POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS WITH RAIN AND SNOW SUNDAY
INTO EARLY MONDAY.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
915 AM EST THU MAR 1 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY AND THEN MOVE EAST TONIGHT
AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. A TROUGH WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN LAKES ON SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TEMPS RUNNING A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN EXPECTED EARLIER SO WILL
MAKE THIS ADJUSTMENT. HRRR AS USUAL SHOW NUMEROUS CELLS OF PRECIP
OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH STRATOCU FIELD. COULD SEE SOME SPRINKLES
OR FLURRIES OUTSIDE OF THE SNOWBELT SO WILL ADD MENTION OF THIS
WITHOUT HAVING TO INCREASE POPS SINCE COULD BE HARD TO SEE
ANYTHING MEASURABLE.
IN THE SNOWBELT...A LITTLE LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL KEEP A THREAT
FOR SHOWERS. TEMPS MARGINAL FOR RAIN OR SNOW THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
DON`T THINK THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SNOWFALL FOR ANY ACCUMULATION OF
SIGNIFICANCE. WINDS GUSTING TO 30 MPH WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE CLOUDS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AS THE FLOW BECOMES SOUTH. ON THE
EDGE ABOUT THE TIMING OF THE FRONT FOR FRIDAY EVENING. THE GFS
MOISTURE SEEMS SCANT BUT IT MAY HAVE THE RIGHT IDEA. ALSO IF THE
PRECIPITATION STARTS EARLY IT MAY AFFECT THE HIGHS ON FRIDAY. THE
850 MB TEMPERATURE IS EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT THE SAME AS IT WAS ON
WEDNESDAY WHEN MANY LOCATIONS HAD RECORD HIGHS. SOME RECORD HIGHS
COULD BE APPROACHED ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL
OHIO. THE AREA IS IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR FRIDAY. WILL MENTION THAT
IN THE HWO. WINDS COULD APPROACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALSO BE MENTIONED IN THE HWO.
SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP ON SATURDAY AND CONTINUE
INTO SUNDAY. THE SNOW SHOWERS BECOME A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD
SUNDAY AS A TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. ON THE EDGE ABOUT THE SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT AN ADVISORY FOR SNOW MAY BE NEEDED
FOR THE SNOW BELT.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH A LITTLE SLOWER BUILDING IN ON WEDNESDAY SO KEPT CHANCE POPS
GOING INTO MONDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT MOVING
HIGH ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES/OHIO VALLEY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY THEN
MOVING THE HIGH OFF THE EAST COAST ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO
BRING THE NEXT SYSTEM ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY...BUT GFS
CONTINUES TO BE THE FASTER OF THE 2 MODELS. GFS BRING THE FRONT
INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z THURSDAY...WHILE
THE ECMWF BRINGS THE FRONT THROUGH DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY.
LEANED TOWARD THE SLOWER ECMWF FOR THIS FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL LAKES WITH OVERCAST MVFR CIGS
BACK INTO IOWA. MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY RISE TO VFR FOR
A TIME LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
IN ADDITION...COLD FRONT THROUGH AREA...AS A RESULT WILL HAVE
GUSTY W-SW WINDS UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. EXPECT WIND GUSTS UP NEAR
30 KNOTS THIS MORNING...WITH WINDS VERY SLOWLY DIMINISHING
THROUGH THE DAY.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE FRIDAY EVENING WITH THUNDERSTORMS SOME
MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY. SNOW
RETURNS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BEST CHANCE IN THE SNOWBELT EAST OF
CLEVELAND.
&&
.MARINE...
MALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR ENTIRE LAKES WITH WEST WINDS OF
15 TO 25 KNOTS. EXPECT WINDS ON WESTERN BASIN TO DIMINISH TO 15 TO
20 KNOTS BY MID MORNING...SO ONLY RAN SMALL CRAFT THERE UNTIL 10
AM. EXPECT SMALL CRAFT TO BE NEEDED IN THE EAST UNTIL LATE THIS
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES QUICKLY ACROSS THE LAKE TONIGHT
SETTING UP FOR THE NEXT SYSTEM THIS WEEKEND. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT LIFTING ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT...DRAGGING ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LAKE.
MODELS DO DIFFER ON THE EXACT STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE LOW. WILL
DEFINITELY NEED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AGAIN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
CURRENT FORECAST HAS 30 KNOT WINDS...BUT 35 KNOT GALES ARE NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
LEZ145>149.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
LEZ142>144.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...ADAMS/KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...DJB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
644 AM EST THU MAR 1 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY AND THEN MOVE EAST TONIGHT
AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. A TROUGH WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN LAKES ON SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE COOL AIR CONTINUES TO FLOW INTO THE REGION. THE LAKE AND 850
MB TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE WILL BE ONLY AROUND 7C. ENOUGH FOR SOME
LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS...WITH THE 850 TEMPERATURE AND
THICKNESS ON THE EDGE WILL FORECAST A MIX. BACKED DOWN ON THE POPS
IN THE SNOW BELT BASED ON THE RADAR AND THE HRRR MODEL. ADDED
CHANCE OF SPRINKLES TO THE FLURRIES OVER NORTHWEST OHIO BASED ON
WHAT IS GOING ON UPSTREAM. THE CLOUDS ARE STILL TOUGH FOR TODAY.
LOOKING AT THE CLOUDS ATTM THEY SHOULD HANG TOUGH ESPECIALLY OVER
THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE THAT MUCH UNLESS
THE CLOUDS THIN SOME. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THAT IS OVER THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE CLOUDS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AS THE FLOW BECOMES SOUTH. ON THE
EDGE ABOUT THE TIMING OF THE FRONT FOR FRIDAY EVENING. THE GFS
MOISTURE SEEMS SCANT BUT IT MAY HAVE THE RIGHT IDEA. ALSO IF THE
PRECIPITATION STARTS EARLY IT MAY AFFECT THE HIGHS ON FRIDAY. THE
850 MB TEMPERATURE IS EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT THE SAME AS IT WAS ON
WEDNESDAY WHEN MANY LOCATIONS HAD RECORD HIGHS. SOME RECORD HIGHS
COULD BE APPROACHED ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL
OHIO. THE AREA IS IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR FRIDAY. WILL MENTION THAT
IN THE HWO. WINDS COULD APPROACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALSO BE MENTIONED IN THE HWO.
SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP ON SATURDAY AND CONTINUE
INTO SUNDAY. THE SNOW SHOWERS BECOME A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD
SUNDAY AS A TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. ON THE EDGE ABOUT THE SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT AN ADVISORY FOR SNOW MAY BE NEEDED
FOR THE SNOW BELT.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH A LITTLE SLOWER BUILDING IN ON WEDNESDAY SO KEPT CHANCE POPS
GOING INTO MONDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT MOVING
HIGH ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES/OHIO VALLEY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY THEN
MOVING THE HIGH OFF THE EAST COAST ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO
BRING THE NEXT SYSTEM ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY...BUT GFS
CONTINUES TO BE THE FASTER OF THE 2 MODELS. GFS BRING THE FRONT
INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z THURSDAY...WHILE
THE ECMWF BRINGS THE FRONT THROUGH DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY.
LEANED TOWARD THE SLOWER ECMWF FOR THIS FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL LAKES WITH OVERCAST MVFR CIGS
BACK INTO IOWA. MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY RISE TO VFR FOR
A TIME LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
IN ADDITION...COLD FRONT THROUGH AREA...AS A RESULT WILL HAVE
GUSTY W-SW WINDS UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. EXPECT WIND GUSTS UP NEAR
30 KNOTS THIS MORNING...WITH WINDS VERY SLOWLY DIMINISHING
THROUGH THE DAY.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE FRIDAY EVENING WITH THUNDERSTORMS SOME
MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY. SNOW
RETURNS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BEST CHANCE IN THE SNOWBELT EAST OF
CLEVELAND.
&&
.MARINE...
MALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR ENTIRE LAKES WITH WEST WINDS OF
15 TO 25 KNOTS. EXPECT WINDS ON WESTERN BASIN TO DIMINISH TO 15 TO
20 KNOTS BY MID MORNING...SO ONLY RAN SMALL CRAFT THERE UNTIL 10
AM. EXPECT SMALL CRAFT TO BE NEEDED IN THE EAST UNTIL LATE THIS
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES QUICKLY ACROSS THE LAKE TONIGHT
SETTING UP FOR THE NEXT SYSTEM THIS WEEKEND. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT LIFTING ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT...DRAGGING ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LAKE.
MODELS DO DIFFER ON THE EXACT STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE LOW. WILL
DEFINITELY NEED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AGAIN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
CURRENT FORECAST HAS 30 KNOT WINDS...BUT 35 KNOT GALES ARE NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
LEZ145>149.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
LEZ142>144.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...DJB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LITTLE ROCK AR
1203 PM CST THU MAR 1 2012
.AVIATION...DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAFS
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE NOTED AT THE NRN SITES TODAY AND
THESE SAME SITES WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY TO SEE VICINITY SHOWERS
LATE TONIGHT AND TMRW MORNING. OTRW...DO EXPECT SOME LOW CLOUDS TO
MOVE IN FROM LA AS WAS SEEN LAST NIGHT DOWN THERE. HAVE HIT THE
LOW CLOUD POTENTIAL PRETTY HARD OVERNIGHT...BUT DID NOT INDICATE
IFR OR LIFR CIGS. IF NAM AND RUC FCST SOUNDINGS VERIFY...LIFR
CONDS LOOK LIKELY MOST EVERYWHERE TOWARD DAYBREAK AND FUTURE
ISSUANCES CAN ADDRESS THIS CONCERN AS THE CRITICAL TAF PD CLOSES
IN.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY
LIGHT WINDS AND DRY AIR IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE NATURAL STATE EARLY
THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE HAS SETTLED INTO THE REGION. THE FRONT
THAT BROUGHT THE PRECIP TO PORTIONS OF THE STATE ON WED IS LOCATED
JUST SE OF AR...WHERE SOME SHRA HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS CENTRAL MS AND
SERN LA. SKIES REMAINED CLEAR FOR MUCH OF AR...WITH THE EXCEPTION
BEING FAR SERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE WHERE CLOUDS REMAINED IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS
RETURNING TO THE SOUTH. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT MUCH MORE SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE SURGE WILL COME
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE STATE. THIS
IS IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING SFC LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PANHANDLES OF
OK/TX LIFTING NE INTO MO. HAVE MENTIONED CHANCE POPS FOR MAINLY SHRA
AND ISOLATED TSRA THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI MORNING AS THIS FRONT
LIFTS NORTH. FORCING MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH ALONG THE WARM FRONT NEAR
THE SFC LOW ACROSS NRN AND NWRN AR DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS THAT
SOME ISOLATED STRONG TO SVR STORMS COULD DEVELOP...WITH LARGE HAIL
BEING THE MAIN THREAT.
AS THE SFC LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT NE DURING THE DAY ON FRI...UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL BE SURGING SE ACROSS KS...GIVING THE TRAILING
COLD FRONT MORE SEWD MOMENTUM. BY MIDDAY FRI...THE FRONT WILL BE
DRAPED MAINLY FROM THE MO BOOT-HEEL SW INTO SWRN SECTIONS OF AR.
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING SOMEWHAT LIMITED UPPER LEVEL
FORCING AROUND MIDDAY WHERE THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA
ACTIVITY IS LOOKING MORE LIMITED ACROSS CENTRAL AND NRN SECTIONS OF
THE STATE WITH THE MAIN COLD FROPA. WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW END
CHANCE POPS FOR THE MIDDAY TIME FRAME ALONG THE FRONT.
HOWEVER...SOLAR HEATING WILL HAVE GENERATED PLENTY OF INSTABILITY
ACROSS SERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE THAT MUCH BETTER CHANCES FOR
SHRA/TSRA WILL EXIST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HRS
WITH THE FROPA. HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE SERN COUNTIES
AS A RESULT. SOME STRONG TO SVR STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THIS
REGION OF THE CWA WITH PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AND SHR IN PLACE. THE
MAIN THREATS IN THIS CASE WOULD BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT...BUT THE LOWEST LEVEL
WIND SHR...WHILE SIGNIFICANT...WOULD BE LESS SUPPORTIVE FOR
TORNADOES DUE TO SFC WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT BEING FROM THE SW. A
MORE SOUTHERLY OR EVEN EASTERLY SFC WIND COMPONENT WOULD BE MUCH
MORE FAVORABLE FOR A WIDESPREAD TORNADO THREAT...AND THIS SCENARIO
LOOKS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.
RELATIVELY QUIET WEEKEND IS IN STORE FOR AR AS THE MAIN LARGE SCALE
TROUGH AXIS SWINGS ACROSS THE STATE SAT INTO SUN. HIGH
PRESSURE...DRY AIR AND CLOSER TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE
MAIN STORY DURING THE LAST TWO DAYS OF THE SHORT TERM.
LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES ON
MONDAY. CLOCKWISE FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL CREATE BREEZY SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND MILD TEMPERATURES. MOISTURE WILL ALSO SLOWLY INCREASE.
ON TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...A STORM SYSTEM/FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO APPROACH
FROM THE PLAINS. RIDGING TO THE EAST WILL SLOW THE PROGRESSION OF
THE FRONT. EVEN SO...INCREASED CLOUDS...AND HAVE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE FRONT NEARS. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BE HIGHEST
IN NORTHERN/WESTERN ARKANSAS CLOSEST TO THE FRONT AND AWAY FROM THE
RIDGE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 72 56 77 38 / 0 40 30 10
CAMDEN AR 81 64 81 45 / 10 20 40 20
HARRISON AR 73 55 67 32 / 0 40 40 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 78 61 78 41 / 10 30 30 10
LITTLE ROCK AR 77 60 80 42 / 10 30 30 10
MONTICELLO AR 81 64 80 45 / 10 20 60 50
MOUNT IDA AR 78 61 76 39 / 10 20 30 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 74 54 71 34 / 0 40 40 0
NEWPORT AR 71 57 77 39 / 0 40 30 10
PINE BLUFF AR 78 61 80 43 / 10 30 40 20
RUSSELLVILLE AR 76 58 77 38 / 0 30 30 0
SEARCY AR 74 57 78 39 / 0 30 30 10
STUTTGART AR 75 60 79 42 / 10 30 40 20
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...63
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
341 PM MST THU MAR 1 2012
.SHORT TERM...MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. AFTER A BRIEF DECREASE IN MOUNTAIN
SNOW...WEB CAMS AS WELL AS RADAR SHOW THE SNOW HAS INCREASED
AGAIN. WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW SOME SORT OF SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO
WESTERN COLORADO WHICH MAY BE AIDING IN THE SNOW INCREASE. THE
MOUNTAIN WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES STILL WARRANTED THROUGH TONIGHT.
THOUGH THERE MAY BE A BIT OF A DECREASE AGAIN OVERNIGHT AS SHOWN
BY THE LATEST RUC AND HRR RUNS. AS FOR PLAINS... STILL A BIT OF A
TRICKY FORECAST THIS EVENING AS MOST MODELS NOT HANDLING THINGS
WELL IN THE SHORT TERM. AIRMASS STILL A BIT UNSTABLE AND LOCAL
ACARS SOUNDINGS HAVE SHOWN A DEEPENING UPSLOPE. EARLIER SNOWBAND
HAS HELPED TO MOISTEN THE LOWER LAYERS. RADAR SHOWING ECHOES ALONG
FOOTHILLS AND URBAN CORRIDOR AS FAR NORTH AS LARIMER COUNTY...WITH
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY OVER JEFFERSON AND DOUGLAS COUNTIES. SO MOST
AREAS IN AND NEAR URBAN CORRIDOR SHOULD SEE SNOW SOON. AS
TEMPERATURES GET COLDER THIS EVENING...SHOULD ALSO SEE SOME
ACCUMULATING SNOW. ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS AND PORTIONS OF
URBAN CORRIDOR STILL LOOKING ON TRACK. SHOULD SEE SOME BREAK IN
THE SNOWFALL TOWARDS 06Z...BASED ON THOSE RUC AND HRR RUNS. NEXT
WAVE LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING WHICH SHOULD
INCREASE THE SNOWFALL ACROSS THE REGION. WARNING AND ADVISORIES
FOR THE MOUNTAINS CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY...LOOKS REASONABLE. AS
FOR PLAINS...BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW TO BE IN THE 10Z-16Z AS THE LIFT
COMBINES WITH NORTHERLY FLOW...WITH THE BEST AREA IN ZONES 36 AND
41. FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH DRIER AIR
WORKING ACROSS THE AREA. SHOULD SEE A DECREASE IN SNOW BY THE
AFTERNOON. OVERALL...CURRENT SNOW AMOUNTS STILL LOOK ON TRACK.
.LONG TERM...BY FRIDAY EVENING PRECIP SHOULD BE ON THE DECLINE
BOTH IN THE MTNS AND ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE WITH SUBSIDENCE ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE PASSING UPPER TROUGH. HOWEVER WEST-NORTHWEST
MID-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO PRODUCE AREAS OF OROGRAPHIC
SNOWFALL ROUGHLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING. DO NOT SEE MUCH IF ANY NEW ACCUMULATION.
OTHERWISE THIS SAME FLOW WILL DRY THINGS IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE
EAST OF THE MTNS ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER PASSING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY. CLOUDS NOT EXPECTED TO DELAY WARMUP WITH MAX TEMPS ON
THE PLAINS 8-14F WARMER THAN READINGS ON FRIDAY.
FOR SUNDAY AND BEYOND...UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE GREAT BASIN
MIGRATES SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER THE ROCKY MTN REGION WITH HIGHEST
HEIGHTS...WARMEST TEMPS ALOFT...OVER COLORADO MONDAY/MONDAY
NIGHT. COULD SEE MAX TEMPS AS MUCH AS 10DEG F ABOVE AVERAGE FOR
THE DATE. WINDS NOT MUCH OF A CONCERN SUNDAY-TUESDAY. THEN BY
MID-WEEK...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW THIS RIDGE MOVING EAST AND
THE NEXT POTENT UPPER AIR TROUGH MOVING OVER THE GREAT BASIN.
SHOULD THIS OCCUR COULD SEE SNOW CHANCES RETURNING TO THE HIGH
COUNTRY AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF STG/GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS BOTH MTNS AND PLAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...SNOW DEVELOPING AGAIN ACROSS DENVER AREA...SHOULD
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING. MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL THROUGH 03Z WITH A CHANCE FOR IFR IN HEAVIER SNOW BANDS.
SHOULD SEE CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 03Z...THOUGH CEILINGS
AROUND 5000 FEET AGL WILL PREVAIL. NEXT WAVE TO AFFECT AREA AROUND
10Z WITH MVFR CONDITIONS REDEVELOPING AS SNOW SPREADS BACK INTO
REGION. DRIER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER 16Z AS WINDS BECOME
NORTHWEST. VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST FRIDAY FOR COZ033-034.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 AM MST FRIDAY FOR COZ031.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...D-L
LONG TERM....BAKER
AVIATION...D-L
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
412 PM EST THU MAR 1 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE RACING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER OVERNIGHT AND
FRIDAY. STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES LATE
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SWING A COLD FRONT THROUGH NEW
ENGLAND SATURDAY. MAINLY DRY AND COLDER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW EARLY
NEXT WEEK...THEN A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND IS POSSIBLE TOWARD
MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
LIGHT SNOW ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE WITH VSBYS BELOW 1
MILE IN THE MERRIMACK VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE BOSTON METROWEST.
FARTHER SOUTH LIGHT MIXED RAIN/SNOW ACROSS CT-RI-SOUTHEAST MASS.
RADAR SHOWS THIS PCPN AREA EXTENDS WEST TO CENTRAL NY...SO IT
SHOULD TAKE SEVERAL HOURS FOR THE PCPN TO DIMINISH.
NORTHEAST WINDS LINGERED THROUGH EVENING IN EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS
BUT THE TREND SHOULD BE TOWARD A NORTH WIND ALL AREAS TONIGHT.
THIS WILL DRAW COLDER AIR IN AND SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO CHANGING
PCPN OVER TO SNOW BEFORE IT ENDS.
UPPER SHORTWAVE OVER NY IS SUPPORTING THIS PCPN. THE SHORTWAVE
WILL CROSS NEW ENGLAND A FEW HOURS EITHER SIDE OF 00Z. ONCE IT
MOVES PAST...PCPN SHOULD TAPER OFF. WE HAVE MAINTAINED LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS SRN NH/MUCH OF MASS/NORTHERN CT/NORTHERN
RI THIS EVENING WITH POPS THEN DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.
TEMPS/DEWPOINTS ARE A BLEND OF HRRR AND MOS.
WITH ONGOING PCPN AND A FEW HEAVIER SPOTS ON RADAR...WE ARE
MAINTAINING EXISTING WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES THROUGH THE EVENING
RUSH HOUR. BUT WE EXPECT THEY WILL EITHER EXPIRE OR BE EXTENDED
FOR JUST A COUPLE OF ADDITIONAL HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST MOVES OVER NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY
MORNING. WE EXPECT PARTIAL CLEARING...BUT LINGERING MOISTURE BELOW
850 MB SUGGESTS PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES DURING THE DAY.
MEANWHILE...INCREASING MOISTURE AT HIGH LEVELS IN THE WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. SO EXPECT INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS OVER THE TOP OF ANY LOW CLOUDS.
925 MB TEMPS OF -2C TO -4C SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 30S TO
AROUND 40. A BLEND OF MOS ACHIEVED THIS RANGE.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* MIXED PRECIP AND ICE INTERIOR FRI NIGHT CHANGING TO RAIN...THEN
SHOWERS AND MILD SAT
* MUCH COLDER WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK
* WARMING TREND WED INTO THU
FRI NIGHT...
MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT STRONG LOW PRES WILL BE MOVING NE THROUGH
THE GT LAKES WITH WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE S. WAA PRECIP
WILL BE OVERSPREADING SNE FRI EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE
NIGHT. SOUNDINGS AND PARTIAL THICKNESSES INDICATE ENOUGH COLD AIR
IN THE COLUMN TO SUPPORT A PERIOD OF SNOW THEN ICE IN THE DISTANT
INTERIOR BEFORE MILDER AIR GRADUALLY PUSHES NORTHWARD. DO NOT
EXPECT MUCH SNOW ACCUM AS MID LEVELS ARE WARMING QUICKLY...BUT AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AND ICING IS POSSIBLE MAINLY N OF
I90 AND W OF I495 WHERE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR WILL BE SLOW TO SCOUR
OUT...AND WINTER WX ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED. DO NOT EXPECT
SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUM BUT UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE ACCRETION
IS POSSIBLE. EVEN ALONG THE COAST...THE RAIN MAY MIX WITH SLEET AT
THE ONSET. SLOWLY RISING TEMPS OVERNIGHT.
SATURDAY...
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO SAT AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NWD INTO
REGION...BUT FOCUS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE COAST ASSOCD WITH
MODEST LOW LEVEL JET...THEN SHOWERS MOVE OFFSHORE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH. POPS WILL BE DECREASING FROM WEST
TO EAST DURING THE DAY. THERE IS STILL AN ELEVATED THUNDER
THREAT...MAINLY NEAR THE S COAST IN THE MORNING AS AREA OF SUBZERO
SWI AND MID 50S TT MOVE NWD. SFC INSTABILITY IS NIL AND LLJ IS NOT
AS ROBUST AND IS FURTHER OFFSHORE SO WIND THREAT IS MINIMAL. AS
WARM FRONT LIFTS NWD ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN...TEMPS WILL LIKELY
SPIKE WELL INTO THE 50S...ESPECIALLY RI AND SE MA...BUT TEMPS
PROBABLY HOLDING IN THE 40S N OF THE PIKE.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
MID LEVEL TROF WILL BE MOVING EAST INTO NEW ENG BRINGING A
NOTICEABLE COOLING TREND. STILL MILD SUNDAY...THEN COLDER WITH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS MON AND TUE. IN FACT...MINS WILL LIKELY DROP
DOWN INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS AND TEENS MON NIGHT. COASTAL STORMS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE SUN AND MON...BUT SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
AND SFC TROFS MOVING INTO THE REGION MAY BRING A FEW RAIN/SNOW SUN
AND MON. MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TUE AS SFC HIGH
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST...BUT OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY AFFECT
THE OUTER CAPE.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...
GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND AS HIGH PRES
MOVES S OF THE COAST WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING. WED WILL BE THE
TRANSITION DAY AFTER A COLD START...THEN UNSEASONABLY MILD WEATHER
POSSIBLE BY THU AND ECMWF HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR TEMPS TO REACH THE
LOWER 60S. DID NOT GO QUITE THAT HIGH IN THE FORECAST AS THIS IS
STILL 7 DAYS AWAY.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT
MODERATE...30 PERCENT TO 60 PERCENT
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT
THROUGH 00Z...
MIXED IFR AND MVFR CEILINGS/VSBYS IN RAIN AND SNOW. THESE
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH 00Z. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TONIGHT...
LEFTOVER MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 03Z ESPECIALLY BDL-PVD NORTH.
NORTH WINDS ALL AREAS. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR CEILINGS
AND UNRESTRICTED VSBYS OVERNIGHT. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
FRIDAY...
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR FRIDAY MORNING. LIGHT WINDS SHIFT TO
SOUTHEAST BY AFTERNOON. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. IFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN
THIS MORNING CHANGING TO SNOW THIS AFTERNOON. AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR
TWO OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE...MAINLY ON NON PAVED SURFACES. GUSTY
EAST WINDS UP TO 35 KT LIKELY. IMPROVING TREND THIS EVENING AND
ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH MVFR LIKELY ALONG WITH PRECIP
ENDING AROUND 03Z.
OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS
DETERIORATING TO IFR DURING FRI EVENING AS AREA OF PRECIP MOVES IN.
PTYPE SNOW AND MIXED PRECIP IN THE INTERIOR CHANGING TO RAIN...WITH
MAINLY RAIN NEAR THE COAST. SHOWERS AND IFR PERSISTING INTO
SATURDAY...POSSIBLY IMPROVING TO VFR LATE IN THE DAY. GUSTY S WINDS
CAPE/ISLANDS LATE FRI NIGHT AND SAT MORNING....BECOMING SW DURING
THE AFTERNOON.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY
VFR...BUT A PERIOD OR TWO OF BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY NW ZONES.
TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR...BUT OCEAN EFFECT CLOUDS AND A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS MAY BRING MVFR CONDITIONS TO THE OUTER CAPE.
&&
.MARINE...
TONIGHT...
CONTINUED NORTH-NORTHEAST GALES ON THE EASTERN WATERS THIS
EVENING BASED ON OBSERVED BUOY WINDS. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT...BUT SEAS WILL LINGER ABOVE 5 FEET ON ALL OUTER WATERS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL COVER ALL ZONES NOT IN A GALE WARNING.
TIDAL RESIDUALS ARE RUNNING AROUND 2.25 FEET HIGH. BUT THE
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE NOT HIGH. SO NO COASTAL FLOODING IS
EXPECTED.
FRIDAY...
WINDS BELOW 25 KNOTS BUT SEAS REMAIN ABOVE 5 FEET ON ALL OUTER
WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED THROUGH THE DAY ON
THE AFFECTED WATERS.
OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...APPROACHING LOW LEVEL JET WILL BRING SCA
SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS TO OPEN WATERS LATE FRI NIGHT AND SAT
MORNING...BUT PROBABLY REMAINING BELOW GALE AS STRONG LOW LEVEL
INVERSION WILL PREVENT STRONGER WINDS FROM MIXING DOWN. WINDS SHIFT
TO SW/W SAT AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...PERIODS OF SCA GUSTS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAINLY WEST WINDS SAT NIGHT INTO MON...SHIFTING
TO N/NW BY TUE.
&&
.CLIMATE...
A PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT WAS ISSUED AT 225 PM. THIS
STATEMENT GIVES A REVIEW OF DECEMBER-JANUARY-FEBRUARY CONDITIONS AT
OUR FOUR CLIMATE SITES...BOSTON-PROVIDENCE-HARTFORD-WORCESTER.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
MAZ002>010-012-014-026.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MAZ011-
013-015-016.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NHZ011-
012-015.
RI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR RIZ001-
003.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ232-235-237.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ233-234.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ230-236.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ231-250-251-254.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ255-256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/KJC
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...WTB/KJC
MARINE...WTB/KJC
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
411 PM EST THU MAR 1 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE RACING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER OVERNIGHT AND
FRIDAY. STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES LATE
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SWING A COLD FRONT THROUGH NEW
ENGLAND SATURDAY. MAINLY DRY AND COLDER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW EARLY
NEXT WEEK...THEN A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND IS POSSIBLE TOWARD
MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
LIGHT SNOW ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE WITH VSBYS BELOW 1
MILE IN THE MERRIMACK VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE BOSTON METROWEST.
FARTHER SOUTH LIGHT MIXED RAIN/SNOW ACROSS CT-RI-SOUTHEAST MASS.
RADAR SHOWS THIS PCPN AREA EXTENDS WEST TO CENTRAL NY...SO IT
SHOULD TAKE SEVERAL HOURS FOR THE PCPN TO DIMINISH.
NORTHEAST WINDS LINGERED THROUGH EVENING IN EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS
BUT THE TREND SHOULD BE TOWARD A NORTH WIND ALL AREAS TONIGHT.
THIS WILL DRAW COLDER AIR IN AND SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO CHANGING
PCPN OVER TO SNOW BEFORE IT ENDS.
UPPER SHORTWAVE OVER NY IS SUPPORTING THIS PCPN. THE SHORTWAVE
WILL CROSS NEW ENGLAND A FEW HOURS EITHER SIDE OF 00Z. ONCE IT
MOVES PAST...PCPN SHOULD TAPER OFF. WE HAVE MAINTAINED LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS SRN NH/MUCH OF MASS/NORTHERN CT/NORTHERN
RI THIS EVENING WITH POPS THEN DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.
TEMPS/DEWPOINTS ARE A BLEND OF HRRR AND MOS.
WITH ONGOING PCPN AND A FEW HEAVIER SPOTS ON RADAR...WE ARE
MAINTAINING EXISTING WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES THROUGH THE EVENING
RUSH HOUR. BUT WE EXPECT THEY WILL EITHER EXPIRE OR BE EXTENDED
FOR JUST A COUPLE OF ADDITIONAL HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST MOVES OVER NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY
MORNING. WE EXPECT PARTIAL CLEARING...BUT LINGERING MOISTURE BELOW
850 MB SUGGESTS PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES DURING THE DAY.
MEANWHILE...INCREASING MOISTURE AT HIGH LEVELS IN THE WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. SO EXPECT INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS OVER THE TOP OF ANY LOW CLOUDS.
925 MB TEMPS OF -2C TO -4C SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 30S TO
AROUND 40. A BLEND OF MOS ACHIEVED THIS RANGE.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* MIXED PRECIP AND ICE INTERIOR FRI NIGHT CHANGING TO RAIN...THEN
SHOWERS AND MILD SAT
* MUCH COLDER WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK
* WARMING TREND WED INTO THU
FRI NIGHT...
MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT STRONG LOW PRES WILL BE MOVING NE THROUGH
THE GT LAKES WITH WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE S. WAA PRECIP
WILL BE OVERSPREADING SNE FRI EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE
NIGHT. SOUNDINGS AND PARTIAL THICKNESSES INDICATE ENOUGH COLD AIR
IN THE COLUMN TO SUPPORT A PERIOD OF SNOW THEN ICE IN THE DISTANT
INTERIOR BEFORE MILDER AIR GRADUALLY PUSHES NORTHWARD. DO NOT
EXPECT MUCH SNOW ACCUM AS MID LEVELS ARE WARMING QUICKLY...BUT AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AND ICING IS POSSIBLE MAINLY N OF
I90 AND W OF I495 WHERE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR WILL BE SLOW TO SCOUR
OUT...AND WINTER WX ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED. DO NOT EXPECT
SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUM BUT UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE ACCRETION
IS POSSIBLE. EVEN ALONG THE COAST...THE RAIN MAY MIX WITH SLEET AT
THE ONSET. SLOWLY RISING TEMPS OVERNIGHT.
SATURDAY...
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO SAT AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NWD INTO
REGION...BUT FOCUS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE COAST ASSOCD WITH
MODEST LOW LEVEL JET...THEN SHOWERS MOVE OFFSHORE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH. POPS WILL BE DECREASING FROM WEST
TO EAST DURING THE DAY. THERE IS STILL AN ELEVATED THUNDER
THREAT...MAINLY NEAR THE S COAST IN THE MORNING AS AREA OF SUBZERO
SWI AND MID 50S TT MOVE NWD. SFC INSTABILITY IS NIL AND LLJ IS NOT
AS ROBUST AND IS FURTHER OFFSHORE SO WIND THREAT IS MINIMAL. AS
WARM FRONT LIFTS NWD ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN...TEMPS WILL LIKELY
SPIKE WELL INTO THE 50S...ESPECIALLY RI AND SE MA...BUT TEMPS
PROBABLY HOLDING IN THE 40S N OF THE PIKE.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
MID LEVEL TROF WILL BE MOVING EAST INTO NEW ENG BRINGING A
NOTICEABLE COOLING TREND. STILL MILD SUNDAY...THEN COLDER WITH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS MON AND TUE. IN FACT...MINS WILL LIKELY DROP
DOWN INTO THE SINGLE MUMBERS AND TEENS MON NIGHT. COASTAL STORMS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE SUN AND MON...BUT SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
AND SFC TROFS MOVING INTO THE REGION MAY BRING A FEW RAIN/SNOW SUN
AND MON. MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TUE AS SFC HIGH
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST...BUT OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY AFFECT
THE OUTER CAPE.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...
GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND AS HIGH PRES
MOVES S OF THE COAST WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING. WED WILL BE THE
TRANSITION DAY AFTER A COLD START...THEN UNSEASONABLY MILD WEATHER
POSSIBLE BY THU AND ECMWF HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR TEMPS TO REACH THE
LOWER 60S. DID NOT GO QUITE THAT HIGH IN THE FORECAST AS THIS IS
STILL 7 DAYS AWAY.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT
MODERATE...30 PERCENT TO 60 PERCENT
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT
THROUGH 00Z...
MIXED IFR AND MVFR CEILINGS/VSBYS IN RAIN AND SNOW. THESE
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH 00Z. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TONIGHT...
LEFTOVER MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 03Z ESPECIALLY BDL-PVD NORTH.
NORTH WINDS ALL AREAS. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR CEILINGS
AND UNRESTRICTED VSBYS OVERNIGHT. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
FRIDAY...
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR FRIDAY MORNING. LIGHT WINDS SHIFT TO
SOUTHEAST BY AFTERNOON. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. IFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN
THIS MORNING CHANGING TO SNOW THIS AFTERNOON. AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR
TWO OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE...MAINLY ON NON PAVED SURFACES. GUSTY
EAST WINDS UP TO 35 KT LIKELY. IMPROVING TREND THIS EVENING AND
ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH MVFR LIKELY ALONG WITH PRECIP
ENDING AROUND 03Z.
OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS
DETERIORATING TO IFR DURING FRI EVENING AS AREA OF PRECIP MOVES IN.
PTYPE SNOW AND MIXED PRECIP IN THE INTERIOR CHANGING TO RAIN...WITH
MAINLY RAIN NEAR THE COAST. SHOWERS AND IFR PERSISTING INTO
SATURDAY...POSSIBLY IMPROVING TO VFR LATE IN THE DAY. GUSTY S WINDS
CAPE/ISLANDS LATE FRI NIGHT AND SAT MORNING....BECOMING SW DURING
THE AFTERNOON.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY
VFR...BUT A PERIOD OR TWO OF BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY NW ZONES.
TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR...BUT OCEAN EFFECT CLOUDS AND A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS MAY BRING MVFR CONDITIONS TO THE OUTER CAPE.
&&
.MARINE...
TONIGHT...
CONTINUED NORTH-NORTHEAST GALES ON THE EASTERN WATERS THIS
EVENING BASED ON OBSERVED BUOY WINDS. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT...BUT SEAS WILL LINGER ABOVE 5 FEET ON ALL OUTER WATERS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL COVER ALL ZONES NOT IN A GALE WARNING.
TIDAL RESIDUALS ARE RUNNING AROUND 2.25 FEET HIGH. BUT THE
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE NOT HIGH. SO NO COASTAL FLOODING IS
EXPECTED.
FRIDAY...
WINDS BELOW 25 KNOTS BUT SEAS REMAIN ABOVE 5 FEET ON ALL OUTER
WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED THROUGH THE DAY ON
THE AFFECTED WATERS.
OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...APPROACHING LOW LEVEL JET WILL BRING SCA
SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS TO OPEN WATERS LATE FRI NIGHT AND SAT
MORNING...BUT PROBABLY REMAINING BELOW GALE AS STRONG LOW LEVEL
INVERSION WILL PREVENT STRONGER WINDS FROM MIXING DOWN. WINDS SHIFT
TO SW/W SAT AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...PERIODS OF SCA GUSTS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAINLY WEST WINDS SAT NIGHT INTO MON...SHIFTING
TO N/NW BY TUE.
&&
.CLIMATE...
A PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT WAS ISSUED AT 225 PM. THIS
STATEMENT GIVES A REVIEW OF DECEMBER-JANUARY-FEBRUARY CONDITIONS AT
OUR FOUR CLIMATE SITES...BOSTON-PROVIDENCE-HARTFORD-WORCESTER.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
MAZ002>010-012-014-026.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MAZ011-
013-015-016.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NHZ011-
012-015.
RI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR RIZ001-
003.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ232-235-237.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ233-234.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ230-236.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ231-250-251-254.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ255-256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/KJC
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...WTB/KJC
MARINE...WTB/KJC
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
341 PM EST THU MAR 1 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE RACING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER OVERNIGHT AND
FRIDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES FRIDAY AND SWING A COLD FRONT THROUGH NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY COOL WEATHER FOR THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
LIGHT SNOW ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE WITH VSBYS BELOW 1
MILE IN THE MERRIMACK VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE BOSTON METROWEST.
FARTHER SOUTH LIGHT MIXED RAIN/SNOW ACROSS CT-RI-SOUTHEAST MASS.
RADAR SHOWS THIS PCPN AREA EXTENDS WEST TO CENTRAL NY...SO IT
SHOULD TAKE SEVERAL HOURS FOR THE PCPN TO DIMINISH.
NORTHEAST WINDS LINGERED THROUGH EVENING IN EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS
BUT THE TREND SHOULD BE TOWARD A NORTH WIND ALL AREAS TONIGHT.
THIS WILL DRAW COLDER AIR IN AND SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO CHANGING
PCPN OVER TO SNOW BEFORE IT ENDS.
UPPER SHORTWAVE OVER NY IS SUPPORTING THIS PCPN. THE SHORTWAVE
WILL CROSS NEW ENGLAND A FEW HOURS EITHER SIDE OF 00Z. ONCE IT
MOVES PAST...PCPN SHOULD TAPER OFF. WE HAVE MAINTAINED LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS SRN NH/MUCH OF MASS/NORTHERN CT/NORTHERN
RI THIS EVENING WITH POPS THEN DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.
TEMPS/DEWPOINTS ARE A BLEND OF HRRR AND MOS.
WITH ONGOING PCPN AND A FEW HEAVIER SPOTS ON RADAR...WE ARE
MAINTAINING EXISTING WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES THROUGH THE EVENING
RUSH HOUR. BUT WE EXPECT THEY WILL EITHER EXPIRE OR BE EXTENDED
FOR JUST A COUPLE OF ADDITIONAL HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST MOVES OVER NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY
MORNING. WE EXPECT PARTIAL CLEARING...BUT LINGERING MOISTURE BELOW
850 MB SUGGESTS PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES DURING THE DAY.
MEANWHILE...INCREASING MOISTURE AT HIGH LEVELS IN THE WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. SO EXPECT INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS OVER THE TOP OF ANY LOW CLOUDS.
925 MB TEMPS OF -2C TO -4C SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 30S TO
AROUND 40. A BLEND OF MOS ACHIEVED THIS RANGE.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* A STOUT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A GOOD SOAKING ACROSS SNE
ON SATURDAY WHILE SOUTHERN NH MAY SEE SOME MIXED PRECIP EARLY
SAT MORNING.
* HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAIN FOCUS OF THE FORECAST WAS FOR THE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH LATE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. UPPER LEVEL WAVE OVER THE NORTHWEST WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE CONUS AND ADVANCE TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND BY FRIDAY EVENING.
THIS WAVE WILL SPAWN A STOUT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE
PLAIN AND GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PUSH A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
EXPECT PRECIP TO BEGIN EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AND WHILE TEMPS WILL
WARM SIGNIFICANTLY...THIS WONT OCCUR UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY. TEMPS
ESP ACROSS NORTHERN MASS AND NH WILL BE AT OR JUST BELOW
FREEZING...AND WITH THICKNESS PROFILES SHOWING A WARM NOSE MOVING
THROUGH...COULD SEE SOME MIXED PRECIP EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. RIGHT
NOW ONLY FORECASTING LESS THAN 0.1 INCH OF ICE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE WHILE SNOWFALL IS LESS THAN AN INCH NORTH OF THE MASS
PIKE. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM SO STAY TUNED TO
LATER FORECASTS.
STRONG WAA AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL INCREASE TEMPS WELL INTO THE
50S ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. A 70KT 850MB JET WILL STREAK
THROUGH THE AREA. HOWEVER LAPSE RATES ARE NOT THE STRONG SO DO NOT
EXPECT GREAT MIXING. BELIEVE WINDS WILL BE 20-30KTS WITH HIGHER
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.
THE LAST PIECE TO THIS COMPLEX SYSTEM IS THE THUNDER POTENTIAL. THE
BEST AREA TO SEE THUNDER WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE
FORECAST AREA AS STOUT COLD FRONT WILL BULGE THROUGH THIS REGION.
MOISTURE LEVELS WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AS WELL IN THIS REGION
AND INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE ALSO SIGNIFICANT TO THIS TIME OF
YEAR. THE NAM IS MORE ROBUST IN THE THUNDER POTENTIAL THAN THE
GFS...BUT CANNOT IGNORE THE INGREDIENTS THAT ARE COMING
TOGETHER...GOOD LIFT...INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE. DO NOT EXPECT THESE
STORM TO BE STRONG OR SEVERE...BUT SOME SMALL HAIL MAY FALL AS FREEZING
HEIGHT LEVELS ARE LOW. ALSO WOULD WATCH THE POTENTIAL FOR DOWNBURSTS
AS STRONG LOW LEVEL JET IS OVER THE REGION...IF STORMS DECIDE TO TAP
INTO IT THEN A GOOD CHANCE FOR SOME STRONG DOWNBURST TO OCCUR.
THUNDER POTENTIAL WILL DECREASE BY SUNDOWN AS SURFACE HEATING WILL
BE MINIMAL TO HELP FUEL THE STORMS.
SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THIS TROUGH WILL KEEP CLOUDS LINGERING
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. CANNOT RULE OUT PRECIPITATION AS
LOW LEVELS ARE STILL SOMEWHAT MOIST. IF ANYTHING IT WOULD BE IN THE
FORM OF DRIZZLE...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON THAT OCCURRING. CAA WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY DECREASING MAX T TO MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO THIS WEEKENDS UPPER 45 TO MID 50S. A GOOD
JET MAX WILL SWING THROUGH THE TROUGH ON SUNDAY MORNING...ALLOWING
FOR GUSTY WINDS REGION WIDE ON SUNDAY AS WELL AS ON MONDAY.
TUESDAY-THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MODEL DISAGREEMENT DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS LOWERED CONFIDENCE
LEVEL. HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS THE ECMWF AS THE LATEST GFS IS MORE
PROGRESSIVE. EVEN THE GFS ENSEMBLES HAS A FEW MEMBERS IN LINE WITH
THE ECMWF. EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
CLEARING OUR SKIES BY EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD REMAIN
THROUGH THE REST OF THIS TIME PERIOD WHILE ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT
MODERATE...30 PERCENT TO 60 PERCENT
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT
THROUGH 00Z...
MIXED IFR AND MVFR CEILINGS/VSBYS IN RAIN AND SNOW. THESE
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH 00Z. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TONIGHT...
LEFTOVER MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 03Z ESPECIALLY BDL-PVD NORTH.
NORTH WINDS ALL AREAS. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR CEILINGS
AND UNRESTRICTED VSBYS OVERNIGHT. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
FRIDAY...
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR FRIDAY MORNING. LIGHT WINDS SHIFT TO
SOUTHEAST BY AFTERNOON. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. IFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN
THIS MORNING CHANGING TO SNOW THIS AFTERNOON. AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR
TWO OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE...MAINLY ON NON PAVED SURFACES. GUSTY
EAST WINDS UP TO 35 KT LIKELY. IMPROVING TREND THIS EVENING AND
ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH MVFR LIKELY ALONG WITH PRECIP
ENDING AROUND 03Z.
OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. PERIODS OF MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS
LIKELY IN RAIN. SOUTH EAST WIND GUSTS WILL LIKELY REACH 25-35 KT ACROSS
E MA/RI...HIGHEST ACROSS S COAST AND THE ISLANDS.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. PROBABLY VFR
THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME...BUT A PERIOD OR TWO OF MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
TONIGHT...
CONTINUED NORTH-NORTHEAST GALES ON THE EASTERN WATERS THIS
EVENING BASED ON OBSERVED BUOY WINDS. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT...BUT SEAS WILL LINGER ABOVE 5 FEET ON ALL OUTER WATERS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL COVER ALL ZONES NOT IN A GALE WARNING.
TIDAL RESIDUALS ARE RUNNING AROUND 2.25 FEET HIGH. BUT THE
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE NOT HIGH. SO NO COASTAL FLOODING IS
EXPECTED.
FRIDAY...
WINDS BELOW 25 KNOTS BUT SEAS REMAIN ABOVE 5 FEET ON ALL OUTER
WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED THROUGH THE DAY ON
THE AFFECTED WATERS.
OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
FRIDAY NIGHT...SE-S WINDS WILL INCREASE AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES.
SEAS WILL REMAIN SCA CRITERIA OVER THE OUTER WATERS.
SATURDAY...STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS AHEAD
OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. EXPECT S-SW WINDS TO GUSTING UP TO GALE
FORCE OVER THE OPEN WATERS SAT AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL BUILD UP TO
10-12 FT...HIGHEST ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MAY SEE LEFTOVER GALE FORCE GUSTS
EARLY SAT NIGHT ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS. OTHERWISE...ENOUGH
COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD RESULT IN SCA NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS AND
SEAS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE PERIOD. .
&&
.CLIMATE...
A PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT WAS ISSUED AT 225 PM. THIS
STATEMENT GIVES A REVIEW OF DECEMBER-JANUARY-FEBRUARY CONDITIONS AT
OUR FOUR CLIMATE SITES...BOSTON-PROVIDENCE-HARTFORD-WORCESTER.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
MAZ002>010-012-014-026.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MAZ011-
013-015-016.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NHZ011-
012-015.
RI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR RIZ001-
003.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ230-232>237.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ231-250-251-254.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ255-256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/KJC
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...WTB/KJC
MARINE...WTB/KJC
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
210 PM MST THU MAR 1 2012
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MST THU MAR 1 2012
A COLD FRONT THAT PASSED OVER THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING IS NOW
ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO. EARLY AFTERNOON WV
IMAGERY AND RUC H5 ANALYSIS SHOW A BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN
US. A STRENGTHENING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO
WESTERN COLORADO.
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF COLORADO
INTO WESTERN KANSAS. MOISTURE/LIFT WILL INCREASE FROM THE WET TO THE
EAST THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...WITH BEST LIFT/MOISTURE IN
THE 03-09Z TIMEFRAME. RAIN WILL QUICKLY TRANSITION TO SNOW IN THE
WEST THIS EVENING...WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE EAST MOST OF THE
NIGHT. BY SUNRISE MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE RAIN COMPLETELY
TRANSITION TO SNOW. GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST ON
PLACEMENT OF HIGHEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...WHICH MAKES SENSE
CONSIDERING THE LOCATION OF SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE. WITH THIS IS
MIND...I INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST...AND DECREASED POPS IN
THE NORTHEAST. CONSIDERING THE LIMITED MOISTURE ADVECTION...AND
QUICK NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT.
RIGHT NOW HIGHEST AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO EASTERN COLORADO
WHERE 1-2 INCHES IS EXPECTED.
WITH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE BUILDING BACK OVER THE CWA FRIDAY
MORNING FROM THE NORTH...PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF QUICKLY FROM
THE NORTH TO THE SOUTH BY MID FRIDAY MORNING OVER ALL BUT THE
EXTREME SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE CWA. DRY CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS ALL OF THE CWA.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MST THU MAR 1 2012
MAIN WEATHER STORY FOR THE LONG TERM IS A WARMING TREND AS LARGE
UPPER RIDGE ALBEIT SOMEWHAT FLAT DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA. HIGH
TEMPERATURE SATURDAY IN THE 40S WILL WARM INTO THE 50S AND LOW 60S
SUNDAY. EVEN WARMER ON MONDAY WITH MID TO UPPER 60S AND MID 60S TO
LOW 70S TUESDAY.
TIMING DIFFERENCES SHOW UP WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE WEST
COAST UPPER TROUGH MOVES TOWARD OR ACROSS THE AREA...IMPACTING THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST. LOOKS TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL BOTH DAYS WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1055 AM MST THU MAR 1 2012
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KMCK AND THROUGH THE DAY AT KGLD.
TONIGHT...LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP AT KGLD WITH RESTRICTIONS TO
VISIBILITY LIKELY DOWN TO MVFR RANGE. BY FRIDAY MORNING...SNOW
WILL MOVE OUT OF KGLD WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH 01Z AT WHICH TIME
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX AND WINDS WILL DECREASE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 200 PM MST THU MAR 1 2012
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG AND SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 70 SATURDAY AS NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH
HIGHER GUSTS COMBINE WITH AFTERNOON HUMIDITY AS LOW AS 20 PERCENT.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM....007
AVIATION...BAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
113 PM EST THU MAR 1 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY AND THEN MOVE EAST TONIGHT
AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. A TROUGH WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN LAKES ON SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK GOOD SO NO CHANGES NEEDED FOR 1230 PM
UPDATE.
TEMPS RUNNING A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN EXPECTED EARLIER SO WILL
MAKE THIS ADJUSTMENT. HRRR AS USUAL SHOW NUMEROUS CELLS OF PRECIP
OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH STRATOCU FIELD. COULD SEE SOME SPRINKLES
OR FLURRIES OUTSIDE OF THE SNOWBELT SO WILL ADD MENTION OF THIS
WITHOUT HAVING TO INCREASE POPS SINCE COULD BE HARD TO SEE
ANYTHING MEASURABLE.
IN THE SNOWBELT...A LITTLE LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL KEEP A THREAT
FOR SHOWERS. TEMPS MARGINAL FOR RAIN OR SNOW THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
DON`T THINK THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SNOWFALL FOR ANY ACCUMULATION OF
SIGNIFICANCE. WINDS GUSTING TO 30 MPH WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE CLOUDS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AS THE FLOW BECOMES SOUTH. ON THE
EDGE ABOUT THE TIMING OF THE FRONT FOR FRIDAY EVENING. THE GFS
MOISTURE SEEMS SCANT BUT IT MAY HAVE THE RIGHT IDEA. ALSO IF THE
PRECIPITATION STARTS EARLY IT MAY AFFECT THE HIGHS ON FRIDAY. THE
850 MB TEMPERATURE IS EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT THE SAME AS IT WAS ON
WEDNESDAY WHEN MANY LOCATIONS HAD RECORD HIGHS. SOME RECORD HIGHS
COULD BE APPROACHED ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL
OHIO. THE AREA IS IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR FRIDAY. WILL MENTION THAT
IN THE HWO. WINDS COULD APPROACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALSO BE MENTIONED IN THE HWO.
SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP ON SATURDAY AND CONTINUE
INTO SUNDAY. THE SNOW SHOWERS BECOME A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD
SUNDAY AS A TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. ON THE EDGE ABOUT THE SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT AN ADVISORY FOR SNOW MAY BE NEEDED
FOR THE SNOW BELT.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH A LITTLE SLOWER BUILDING IN ON WEDNESDAY SO KEPT CHANCE POPS
GOING INTO MONDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT MOVING
HIGH ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES/OHIO VALLEY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY THEN
MOVING THE HIGH OFF THE EAST COAST ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO
BRING THE NEXT SYSTEM ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY...BUT GFS
CONTINUES TO BE THE FASTER OF THE 2 MODELS. GFS BRING THE FRONT
INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z THURSDAY...WHILE
THE ECMWF BRINGS THE FRONT THROUGH DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY.
LEANED TOWARD THE SLOWER ECMWF FOR THIS FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TYPICAL WINTER TIME CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH MVFR CIGS OVER
THE GREAT LAKES WITH A SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WITH A
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FROM IOWA SE INTO ALABAMA. THE RIDGE WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND ALLOW SLOW
CLEARING TO PROGRESS ACROSS ALL BUT THE EASTERN TAF SITES BY
SUNRISE. CLEARING WILL BE BRIEF AS MOISTURE RAPIDLY RETURNS FROM THE
GULF ON FRIDAY. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON
ALONG WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE FRIDAY EVENING WITH THUNDERSTORMS SOME
MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE. SNOW SHOWERS RETURNS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...BEST CHANCE IN THE SNOWBELT EAST OF CLEVELAND.
&&
.MARINE...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE WEST OF THE
ISLANDS WITH WINDS ALREADY DOWN TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND WINDS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DECREASING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...EXPECT SMALL CRAFT TO BE NEEDED IN THE EAST
UNTIL LATE THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES QUICKLY ACROSS THE
LAKE TONIGHT SETTING UP FOR THE NEXT SYSTEM THIS WEEKEND. MODELS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT LIFTING ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT...DRAGGING ANOTHER COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE LAKE. MODELS DO DIFFER ON THE EXACT STRENGTH AND TRACK
OF THE LOW. WILL DEFINITELY NEED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AGAIN
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. CURRENT FORECAST HAS 30 KNOT WINDS...BUT 35
KNOT GALES ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
LEZ145>149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...ADAMS/KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...REL
MARINE...KEC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
1206 PM EST THU MAR 1 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY AND THEN MOVE EAST TONIGHT
AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. A TROUGH WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN LAKES ON SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK GOOD SO NO CHANGES NEEDED FOR 1230 PM
UPDATE.
TEMPS RUNNING A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN EXPECTED EARLIER SO WILL
MAKE THIS ADJUSTMENT. HRRR AS USUAL SHOW NUMEROUS CELLS OF PRECIP
OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH STRATOCU FIELD. COULD SEE SOME SPRINKLES
OR FLURRIES OUTSIDE OF THE SNOWBELT SO WILL ADD MENTION OF THIS
WITHOUT HAVING TO INCREASE POPS SINCE COULD BE HARD TO SEE
ANYTHING MEASURABLE.
IN THE SNOWBELT...A LITTLE LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL KEEP A THREAT
FOR SHOWERS. TEMPS MARGINAL FOR RAIN OR SNOW THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
DON`T THINK THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SNOWFALL FOR ANY ACCUMULATION OF
SIGNIFICANCE. WINDS GUSTING TO 30 MPH WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE CLOUDS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AS THE FLOW BECOMES SOUTH. ON THE
EDGE ABOUT THE TIMING OF THE FRONT FOR FRIDAY EVENING. THE GFS
MOISTURE SEEMS SCANT BUT IT MAY HAVE THE RIGHT IDEA. ALSO IF THE
PRECIPITATION STARTS EARLY IT MAY AFFECT THE HIGHS ON FRIDAY. THE
850 MB TEMPERATURE IS EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT THE SAME AS IT WAS ON
WEDNESDAY WHEN MANY LOCATIONS HAD RECORD HIGHS. SOME RECORD HIGHS
COULD BE APPROACHED ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL
OHIO. THE AREA IS IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR FRIDAY. WILL MENTION THAT
IN THE HWO. WINDS COULD APPROACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALSO BE MENTIONED IN THE HWO.
SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP ON SATURDAY AND CONTINUE
INTO SUNDAY. THE SNOW SHOWERS BECOME A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD
SUNDAY AS A TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. ON THE EDGE ABOUT THE SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT AN ADVISORY FOR SNOW MAY BE NEEDED
FOR THE SNOW BELT.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH A LITTLE SLOWER BUILDING IN ON WEDNESDAY SO KEPT CHANCE POPS
GOING INTO MONDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT MOVING
HIGH ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES/OHIO VALLEY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY THEN
MOVING THE HIGH OFF THE EAST COAST ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO
BRING THE NEXT SYSTEM ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY...BUT GFS
CONTINUES TO BE THE FASTER OF THE 2 MODELS. GFS BRING THE FRONT
INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z THURSDAY...WHILE
THE ECMWF BRINGS THE FRONT THROUGH DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY.
LEANED TOWARD THE SLOWER ECMWF FOR THIS FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL LAKES WITH OVERCAST MVFR CIGS
BACK INTO IOWA. MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY RISE TO VFR FOR
A TIME LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
IN ADDITION...COLD FRONT THROUGH AREA...AS A RESULT WILL HAVE
GUSTY W-SW WINDS UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. EXPECT WIND GUSTS UP NEAR
30 KNOTS THIS MORNING...WITH WINDS VERY SLOWLY DIMINISHING
THROUGH THE DAY.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE FRIDAY EVENING WITH THUNDERSTORMS SOME
MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY. SNOW
RETURNS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BEST CHANCE IN THE SNOWBELT EAST OF
CLEVELAND.
&&
.MARINE...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE WEST OF THE
ISLANDS WITH WINDS ALREADY DOWN TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND WINDS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DECREASING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...EXPECT SMALL CRAFT TO BE NEEDED IN THE EAST
UNTIL LATE THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES QUICKLY ACROSS THE
LAKE TONIGHT SETTING UP FOR THE NEXT SYSTEM THIS WEEKEND. MODELS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT LIFTING ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT...DRAGGING ANOTHER COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE LAKE. MODELS DO DIFFER ON THE EXACT STRENGTH AND TRACK
OF THE LOW. WILL DEFINITELY NEED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AGAIN
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. CURRENT FORECAST HAS 30 KNOT WINDS...BUT 35
KNOT GALES ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
LEZ145>149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...ADAMS/KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...KEC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
1108 AM EST THU MAR 1 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY AND THEN MOVE EAST TONIGHT
AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. A TROUGH WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN LAKES ON SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TEMPS RUNNING A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN EXPECTED EARLIER SO WILL
MAKE THIS ADJUSTMENT. HRRR AS USUAL SHOW NUMEROUS CELLS OF PRECIP
OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH STRATOCU FIELD. COULD SEE SOME SPRINKLES
OR FLURRIES OUTSIDE OF THE SNOWBELT SO WILL ADD MENTION OF THIS
WITHOUT HAVING TO INCREASE POPS SINCE COULD BE HARD TO SEE
ANYTHING MEASURABLE.
IN THE SNOWBELT...A LITTLE LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL KEEP A THREAT
FOR SHOWERS. TEMPS MARGINAL FOR RAIN OR SNOW THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
DON`T THINK THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SNOWFALL FOR ANY ACCUMULATION OF
SIGNIFICANCE. WINDS GUSTING TO 30 MPH WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE CLOUDS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AS THE FLOW BECOMES SOUTH. ON THE
EDGE ABOUT THE TIMING OF THE FRONT FOR FRIDAY EVENING. THE GFS
MOISTURE SEEMS SCANT BUT IT MAY HAVE THE RIGHT IDEA. ALSO IF THE
PRECIPITATION STARTS EARLY IT MAY AFFECT THE HIGHS ON FRIDAY. THE
850 MB TEMPERATURE IS EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT THE SAME AS IT WAS ON
WEDNESDAY WHEN MANY LOCATIONS HAD RECORD HIGHS. SOME RECORD HIGHS
COULD BE APPROACHED ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL
OHIO. THE AREA IS IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR FRIDAY. WILL MENTION THAT
IN THE HWO. WINDS COULD APPROACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALSO BE MENTIONED IN THE HWO.
SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP ON SATURDAY AND CONTINUE
INTO SUNDAY. THE SNOW SHOWERS BECOME A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD
SUNDAY AS A TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. ON THE EDGE ABOUT THE SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT AN ADVISORY FOR SNOW MAY BE NEEDED
FOR THE SNOW BELT.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH A LITTLE SLOWER BUILDING IN ON WEDNESDAY SO KEPT CHANCE POPS
GOING INTO MONDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT MOVING
HIGH ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES/OHIO VALLEY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY THEN
MOVING THE HIGH OFF THE EAST COAST ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO
BRING THE NEXT SYSTEM ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY...BUT GFS
CONTINUES TO BE THE FASTER OF THE 2 MODELS. GFS BRING THE FRONT
INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z THURSDAY...WHILE
THE ECMWF BRINGS THE FRONT THROUGH DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY.
LEANED TOWARD THE SLOWER ECMWF FOR THIS FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL LAKES WITH OVERCAST MVFR CIGS
BACK INTO IOWA. MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY RISE TO VFR FOR
A TIME LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
IN ADDITION...COLD FRONT THROUGH AREA...AS A RESULT WILL HAVE
GUSTY W-SW WINDS UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. EXPECT WIND GUSTS UP NEAR
30 KNOTS THIS MORNING...WITH WINDS VERY SLOWLY DIMINISHING
THROUGH THE DAY.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE FRIDAY EVENING WITH THUNDERSTORMS SOME
MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY. SNOW
RETURNS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BEST CHANCE IN THE SNOWBELT EAST OF
CLEVELAND.
&&
.MARINE...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE WEST OF THE
ISLANDS WITH WINDS ALREADY DOWN TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND WINDS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DECREASING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...EXPECT SMALL CRAFT TO BE NEEDED IN THE EAST
UNTIL LATE THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES QUICKLY ACROSS THE
LAKE TONIGHT SETTING UP FOR THE NEXT SYSTEM THIS WEEKEND. MODELS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT LIFTING ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT...DRAGGING ANOTHER COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE LAKE. MODELS DO DIFFER ON THE EXACT STRENGTH AND TRACK
OF THE LOW. WILL DEFINITELY NEED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AGAIN
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. CURRENT FORECAST HAS 30 KNOT WINDS...BUT 35
KNOT GALES ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
LEZ145>149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...ADAMS/KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...KEC/DJB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
347 PM CST THU MAR 1 2012
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
312 PM CST THU MAR 1 2012
AT 3 PM...THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND PROFILER NETWORKS SHOW THAT
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND
WESTERN IOWA. THE RUC SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT MUCH OF THE
SYNOPTIC AND ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE GOES TO
SATURATION. THIS IS LIKELY THE REASON WHY THE RADARS ARE
INDICATING SOME ECHOS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST
IOWA. HOWEVER WITH THE AIR MASS DRY IN THE LOW LEVELS...NOT SEEING
ANYTHING REACHING THE GROUND. THIS WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN THIS EVENING...SO JUST LEFT A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION TO COVER THIS SYSTEM. FURTHER TO THE NORTHWEST...
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING THROUGH EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE TOO FAR NORTH AND WEST TO PRODUCE ANY
PRECIPITATION ACROSS EITHER SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA OR NORTH-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. AS A RESULT...LOWERED THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR
TONIGHT IN THESE AREAS. MEANWHILE BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEM WILL
LIKELY NOT SEE ANY PRECIPITATION...SO TOOK OUT THE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES OUT FOR THESE AREAS.
ON FRIDAY...THE 01.12Z MODELS ARE MUCH CLOSER TO COMING UP WITH A
CONSENSUS FORECAST. THE NAM/WRF HAS KEPT ITS IDEA THAT THERE WOULD
BE SOME PHASING BETWEEN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS...THUS...
IT HAS KEPT A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. WHILE THIS HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT...IT HAS SHIFT THE SURFACE LOW MUCH FURTHER SOUTHEAST
WITH IT TRACKING FROM NORTHERN MISSOURI INTO SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN. THIS TRACK IS MORE IN LINE WITH WHAT THE GFS...GEM...
ECMWF...AND UKMET HAVE BEEN SHOWING FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.
MEANWHILE THE GFS...GEM...ECMWF...AND UKMET ARE NOW SHOWING SOME
PHASING BETWEEN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS...SO THEY HAVE A
SIMILAR STRENGTH LOW TO THE NAM/WRF. WHILE THEY MADE THIS
CHANGE...THERE SURFACE LOW TRACK HAS REMAINED RATHER CONSISTENT.
ALL OF THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT THERE WILL BE STRONG 900 TO
700 MB FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS FAR EASTERN IOWA...NORTHWEST
ILLINOIS...AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. ABOVE THIS FRONTOGENESIS...
THERE IS SOME NEGATIVE EPV. AS A RESULT...EXPECTING TO SEE SOME
SLANTWISE CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. THIS INTERSECTS THE -15C OMEGA...SO
THERE WILL BE POSSIBILITY OF 1 TO 2 INCH AN HOUR SNOW RATES. THE
01.15Z SREF DOES SUGGEST THAT THERE WILL BE SOME PROBABILITIES FOR
THIS JUST TO THE EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. WITH ALL OF THIS IN
MIND...THINKING THAT THERE WILL BE A BAND OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW
EAST OF A DUBUUE IOWA TO WAUTOMA WISCONSIN LINE. IF THESE SNOW
TOTALS STILL LOOK REALISTIC TONIGHT...WE MAY HAVE TO ISSUE A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THIS AREA. ONE CONCERN ABOUT DOING
THIS IS THAT THE TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE FREEZING AND THEY MAY HAVE
A HARD TIME ACCUMULATING IF THE RATES ARE NOT HIGH ENOUGH.
FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A LONG
WAVE TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE REGION. EMBEDDED WEAK SHORT
WAVE TROUGHS IN THIS MAIN WAVE MAY PRODUCE PERIODIC CHANCES FOR
LIGHT SNOW. OVERALL...IF THE SNOW DOES OCCUR...NOT EXPECTING TOO
MUCH ACCUMULATIONS FROM THESE SYSTEMS.
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
312 PM CST THU MAR 1 2012
ON TUESDAY...THE MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO INDICATE THAT A 500 MB
HIGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. SOUTHERLY
WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS HIGH WILL BRING WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES INTO THE FORECASTS AREA. WE MAY SEE TWO TO THREE DAYS
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S. THERE MAY BE EVEN A FEW AREAS
THAT SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S. SINCE THE ALL BLEND STILL HAS
SOME COLD SOLUTIONS IN IT...TRENDED THE TEMPERATURES FROM TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY TOWARD THE CONSALL INSTEAD OF THE ALL BLEND.
&&
.AVIATION...THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY
1133 AM CST THU MAR 1 2012
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS IS HOW LONG TO KEEP MVFR CEILING CONDITIONS
AT BOTH KRST AND KLSE TAF SITES AND IF THE LIFR CONDITIONS OVER
WESTERN MINNESOTA AND EASTERN DAKOTAS ADVECT EASTWARD INTO THE TAF
SITES AFTER 06Z FRIDAY. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE
STRATUS DECK COVERING MUCH OF THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING...WITH
LATEST 17Z METARS REPORTING 1200-2500 FEET CEILINGS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN. FARTHER WEST OVER
WESTERN MINNESOTA AND EASTERN WISCONSIN CEILINGS ARE 200-500 FEET.
THE LATEST 01.12Z NAM/RUC/GFS SHOW MVFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH TAF
SITES THROUGH 22Z THURSDAY...THEN THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC MODELS
ERODE SOME OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LIFR
CONDITIONS OVER EASTERN DAKOTAS AND WESTERN MINNESOTA...AS THIS
MOISTURE ADVECTS EASTWARD. FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS AT BOTH KRST AND KLSE TAF SITES THROUGH 22Z AND LEAVE
OUT LIFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH TAF SITES...DUE TO CONFIDENCE LOW OF
OCCURRING AND THE LIFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE IN SHORT DURATION.
NEXT CONCERN IS LATEST 01.12Z GFS/NAM SHOW SURFACE LOW TRACKING
NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL
ADVECT SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD AND INTO THE AREA. THE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MAINLY BE OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND
EASTERN IOWA. HAVE INTRODUCED MVFR CEILINGS AFTER 07Z FRIDAY AT
KLSE AND AFTER 12Z AT KRST.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
348 AM CST THU MAR 1 2012
WATER LEVELS IN MOST OF THE TRIBUTARY STREAMS AND RIVERS HAD CRESTED
OR WERE CREATING EARLY THIS MORNING...REMAINING BELOW BANKFULL
STAGE. WITH PRECIP CHANCES TONIGHT/FRI MAINLY FOR SNOW AND COOLER
TEMPS INTO THE WEEKEND...WATER LEVELS IN THE TRIBUTARY STREAMS AND
RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL. HOWEVER...THE WATER DRAINING OUT OF
THE TRIBUTARIES WILL DRAIN INTO THE MS RIVER. WATER LEVELS ON THE MS
RIVER CAN BE EXPECTED TO RISE A FOOT OR TWO THRU NEXT WEEK AS THIS
WATER FLOWS THROUGH THE SYSTEM. THIS WILL MAKE ANY REMAINING ICE ON
THE MS RIVER BACKWATERS OR POOLS EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TO VENTURE ONTO
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
312 PM CST THU MAR 1 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...DTJ
HYDROLOGY....RRS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
239 PM CST THU MAR 1 2012
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW LOW PRESSURE
MOVING OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...BUT WITH SURFACE TROUGHING
EXTENDING WEST INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN. THE COMBO OF WEAK CYCLONIC
FLOW AND THERMAL TROUGHING IN THE LOW LEVELS HAS LEAD TO A ROBUST
STRATUS DECK THAT HAS HELD FIRM THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SOME
HOLES IN THE CLOUDS HAVE TRIED TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAKESHORE WITHOUT
MUCH LUCK. MEANWHILE...PLENTY OF INCOMING CONCERNS UPSTREAM.
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE IS SLOWLY MOVING EAST OVER THE
MONTANA/N.D. BORDER WITH LIGHT SNOW SPREADING ACROSS N.D. FARTHER
SOUTH...WEAK SHORTWAVE IMPULSES ARE MOVING WITHIN FAST SW FLOW OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ONE DISTURBANCE IS PRODUCING LIGHT SNOW OVER NE
NEBRASKA AND NW IOWA. FINALLY...THE STRONGEST SHORTWAVE IS RAPIDLY
MOVING EAST OVER UTAH/COLORADO...AND SNOW AMOUNTS/HEADLINES WITH
THIS FEATURE WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN.
TONIGHT...NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA
INTO MINNESOTA AND PUSH AN UPPER LEVEL FRONT INTO NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT. FORCING IS PRETTY WEAK...BUT GUIDANCE IS
OPTIMISTIC ABOUT GENERATING LIGHT SNOW ALONG IT. UPSTREAM OBS SNOW
THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW...SO WILL KEEP IT IN THE FORECAST AFTER
06Z. MEANWHILE...RELATIVELY WEAKER SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSES WILL
RACE NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. LIGHT SNOW OVER NE
NEBRASKA MAY MAKE A RUN AT CENTRAL OR EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE AS
WELL. CONFIDENCE NOT QUITE AS HIGH WITH THIS FEATURE AS THE ONE
FARTHER NORTH...SO WILL SHOW LOWER POPS. NOT EXPECTING MUCH ACCUMS
WITH EITHER FEATURE THOUGH...PERHAPS A COUPLE TENTHS.
OTHERWISE...ANTICIPATE THE BACK EDGE OF THE LOW STRATUS WILL
ACCELERATE NORTHEAST OVER THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY
TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS BECOME WEAK SO THINK THE LOW
OVERCAST WILL HANG AROUND. IF THEY DO CLEAR OVER CENTRAL AND
EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN (HIGHEST PROBABILITY)...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
WILL KEEP THE SKIES OVERCAST. LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO THE LOWER 30S.
FRIDAY...CENTRAL ROCKIES SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND NORTHEAST OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. IT WILL DRIVE
A RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW FROM SW MISSOURI TO NORTHEAST
INDIANA. NUISANT SMALL PRECIP CHANCES WILL LINGER OVER N-C
WISCONSIN AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN IN THE MORNING BUT THE MAIN SHOW
WILL ARRIVE IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES OVER ILLINOIS
AND INDIANA. INCREASING UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE LEFT FRONT QUAD OF A
JETSTREAK...AND STRONG FGEN CENTERED AROUND 700MB ON THE NW FLANK OF
THE SURFACE LOW WILL LEAD TO PRECIP SPREADING NORTHEAST OVER CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN MID-AFTERNOON ONWARD. NEGATIVE EPV ABOVE
THIS FGEN LAYER WILL SUPPORT ENHANCED BANDING ACTIVITY WHICH COULD
LEAD TO LOCALLY HEAVIER SNOWFALL RATES. SOME RAIN MAY MIX IN WITH
THE SNOW OVER THE FOX VALLEY AND LAKESHORE AREAS WHERE TEMPS WILL BE
IN THE MID 30S AS THE PRECIP ARRIVES. BUT ONCE THE HEAVIER PRECIP
RATES MOVE IN...A TIGHTENING BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
RAPIDLY ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR THE EVENING COMMUTE. COULD SEE A
QUICK 1-3 INCHES OF HEAVY SNOW FOR THE FOX VALLEY AND LAKESHORE BY
00Z SATURDAY WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE NORTHWEST. WILL HOIST A
WINTER STORM WATCH STARTING AT 3 PM FOR WINNEBAGO TO SOUTHERN
MARINETTE ON EAST.
.LONG TERM...FRI NGT THRU NXT THU. FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE MEAN FLOW
ACROSS THE COUNTRY AS ONE LONGWAVE TROF MOVES ACROSS THE ERN CONUS
THIS WEEKEND...TO BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER LONGWAVE TROF PUSHING
INTO THE WRN CONUS EARLY NXT WEEK. NE WI TO DEAL WITH INITIAL TROF
INTO THE WEEKEND...HOWEVER UPR RIDGING BETWEEN THE TWO TROFS WL
BRING A GOOD WARM-UP EARLY TO MID-WEEK. THE APPROACH OF A CDFNT
WED/THU WL BRING THE NXT BEST CHC OF SEEING WIDESPREAD PCPN.
MDLS CONT TO CONVERGE ON A STORM TRACK FROM TAKING A DEEPENING SFC
LOW ROUGHLY FROM SW LWR MI NEWD TO EXTREME SE ONTARIO FRI NGT.
ACCUMULATING SNOW WL CONT TO IMPACT PRIMARILY ERN WI WHERE AN ADDL
2 TO 4 INCHES IS PSBL DURING THE EVENING. CONVERSELY...WRN SECTIONS
OF THE FCST AREA (GENERALLY WEST OF HWY 51) WL BE LUCKY TO SEE AN
ADDL INCH OF NEW SNOW. STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW COMBINED WITH A SFC
TROF DROPPING SOUTH INTO WI WL KEEP AT LEAST A CHC OF SNOW SHWRS
ACROSS THE FCST AREA THRU THE OVRNGT PERIOD.
THE WEAK SFC TROF SAGS SWD TOWARD SRN WI ON SAT WITH A WEAKENING
CYCLONIC FLOW HANGING ON OVER THE WRN GREAT LKS. FURTHERMORE...THE
LONGWAVE TROF WL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES PUSHING THRU WI. FINALLY...MID-LVL LAPSE RATES GET
PRETTY STEEP ADDING INSTABILITY TO THE ATMOSPHERE. ADD ALL THIS UP
AND WE ARE LOOKING AT A DECENT CHC OF SNOW SHWRS THROUGHOUT ALL OF
NE WI. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW LOCALLY HEAVIER SNOW
BURSTS WITH PERHAPS A QUICK ONE-HALF INCH TO AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION.
MAX TEMPS TO BE COOLER THAN PREV DAYS WITH READINGS TOPPING OUT IN
THE LWR TO MID 30S.
SNOW SHWRS SHOULD BECOME MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE SAT NGT AS THE SFC
TROF PULLS AWAY AND THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING MINIMIZES THE
INSTABILITY. SKIES TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY THRU THE NGT...HOWEVER
ENUF COOL AIR TO HAVE SETTLED OVER THE REGION TO ALLOW TEMPS TO
DROP INTO THE TEENS NORTH/CENTRAL...NEAR 20 EAST-CENTRAL. THE
LONGWAVE TROF TO STILL BE SITUATED OVER THE GREAT LKS THRU SUNDAY...
THEREBY PROVIDING A MEAN NW FLOW ACROSS WI. A PROMINENT SHORTWAVE
IS FCST TO DIVE SE FROM MN TO NRN IL WITH EVEN A SEMBLENCE OF A WEAK
SFC LOW MOVING SE THRU IA. EXPECT TO SEE SCT SNOW SHWRS OVER MUCH OF
NE WI ON SUNDAY WITH MAX TEMPS ONLY REACHING THE MID 20S NORTH/
AROUND 30 CENTRAL/E-CENTRAL.
ANY SNOW SHWR ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH SUNDAY EVENING AS THE
SHORTWAVE DIVES TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND INSTABILITY
WEAKENS UPON SUNSET. AS HI PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE MIDWEST LATER
SUNDAY NGT...SKIES WL ATTEMPT TO BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY OVER AT LEAST
CENTRAL WI BRINGING ANOTHER COLD NGT TO THE FCST AREA. THE HI PRES
DRIFTS ACROSS WI ON MON AND WL BE SITUATED JUST TO OUR EAST BY 00Z
TUE. WINDS BACKING S-SW WL START TO TAP WARMER AIR TO OUR WEST...
BUT COOLS START TO THE DAY WL ONLY BRING MAX TEMPS ON MON INTO THE
30-35 DEG RANGE. AS THE HI PRES HEADS TOWARD THE ERN CONUS ON TUE...
A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRES WL BE MOVING ACROSS S-CENTRAL CANADA. A
TIGHT PRES GRADIENT TO EXIST ACROSS THE GREAT LKS...BRINGING
BLUSTERY CONDITIONS TO NE WI. THESE GUSTY S-SW WINDS WL ALSO DRAW
VERY MILD AIR INTO WI WITH 8H TEMPS CLIMBING TO NEAR +6C. DEPENDING
ON THE DEPTH OF THE SNOW COVER...MAX TEMPS SHOULD EASILY RISE INTO
THE 40S WITH ANY SNOW-FREE AREAS SURPASSING THE 50 DEG MARK.
THE NXT LONGWAVE TROF TO BE IN THE PROCESS OF PUSHING ACROSS THE
ROCKIES TUE NGT BEFORE REACHING THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS ON WED.
PRECEDING THIS UPR TROF WL BE A CDFNT WHICH THE MDLS HAVE SOME
TIMING ISSUES WITH. LATEST TRENDS HAVE THIS FNT APPROACHING CENTRAL
WI BY WED AFTERNOON...THUS A NEED FOR CHC POPS ACROSS MOST OF NE
WI. ANOTHER MILD DAY WOULD HAVE ANY PCPN FALL AS RAIN WITH MAX
TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE MID 40S NORTH TO AROUND 50 DEGS CENTRAL
AND EAST-CENTRAL WI. THE CDFNT DRIVES THRU MOST OF WI WED NGT WITH
A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN MIXING WITH AND CHANGING TO LIGHT SNOW AS
COOLER AIR ARRIVES BEHIND THE FNT. SOME DEBATE LINGERS AS TO
WHETHER THIS FNT WL BE ABLE TO CLEAR THE AREA BEFORE ANY SFC WAVES
CAN DEVELOP ON THE FNT TO SLOW ITS PROGRESS. HAVE USED A GENERAL
CONSENSUS FOR THU WHICH KEEPS THINGS DRY FOR NOW...BUT THU MAY
NEED TO BE RE-EVALUATED LATER AS THE 12Z ECMWF NOW DIGS AN UPR
TROF INTO THE CNTRL CONUS AND REVS UP A SFC LOW TOWARD CHICAGO.
&&
.AVIATION...CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION
KEEPING THE LOW STRATUS SOCKED IN AT THE TAF SITES. NOT MUCH
IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HEATING. COOLING
TONIGHT SHOULD LEAD TO LOWERING OF CIGS TO IFR LEVELS AT ALL TAF
SITES...WHICH COMPARES WELL TO THE MET GUIDANCE. MAY SEE EVEN LOWER
CIGS OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN AS A SURFACE TROUGH
APPROACHES LATE TONIGHT. A SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW WITH THIS
TROUGH LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. CIGS IMPROVE LATE
TOMORROW MORNING BACK TO MVFR BUT THEN WILL BE WATCHING FOR A
SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM TO ARRIVE BY LATE AFTERNOON OVER THE FOX
VALLEY AND LAKE SHORE.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT FOR WIZ022-038>040-048>050-073-074.
&&
$$
MPC/AK