Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 02/26/12

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA

930 PM PST THU FEB 23 2012

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY WITH GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS
AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A COUPLE OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS WILL BRING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY WINDS OVER
THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO DROP THE FIRST PART OF
NEXT WEEK...COUPLED WITH STRONGER ONSHORE BREEZES.

.UPDATE...

AS HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE CLEARS OUT...THE LATEST FOG PRODUCT
IMAGERY IS REVEALING A DEVELOPING MARINE LAYER DECK ALONG THE
ORANGE COUNTY COAST AND MOVING NORTH. WITH SOME WEAKENING OF THE
OFFSHORE GRADIENTS AND ENOUGH OF A SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON NEAR
THE COAST...IT MAKES SENSE THAT A MARINE LAYER COULD FORM. WITH
NEAR NEUTRAL SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS THIS AFTERNOON...ANY FOG
WILL LIKELY BE DENSE AND PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND DENSE FOG WERE
ADDED TO THE PACKAGE FOR TONIGHT ACROSS THE LOS ANGELES COUNTY
COAST.

THERE IS A CHANCE THAT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG COULD LINGER AFTER
SUNRISE ON FRIDAY...BUT ANY ADDITION FOR THE MORNING PERIOD ON
FRIDAY WILL BE TABLED FOR NOW. NAM-WRF AND 13-KM RUC SOLUTIONS
SUGGEST THAT THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SCOURS LATE TONIGHT AND INTO
FRIDAY MORNING.

A MARGINAL WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT...STARTING AT 10 PM
THIS EVENING. 00Z MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE BACKING OFF TO A LATER
START TIME TONIGHT...AROUND 2 AM OR SO IN THE LATEST NAM-WRF
SOLUTIONS. WITH THE LATEST 13-KM RUC SOLUTIONS FOLLOWING
SUIT...THE START TIME MAY BE BUMPED BACK AT THE NEXT WIND ADVISORY
UPDATE. SOME CONCERN EXISTS THAT THE VENTURA COUNTY COAST MAY NOT
REACH CRITERIA ACROSS A MORE WIDESPREAD AREA. WITH A PERIOD
AROUND 7 AM WHEN THE STRONGER WIND ALOFT COULD MIX DOWN...THE
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE CONTINUED FOR NOW.

WITH A TAD MORE MIXING WITH THE WIND AND SOME COOL AIR ADVECTION
PUSHING INTO THE AREA...THE AIR MASS SHOULD COOL SOME ON FRIDAY.
950 MB AND BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO COOL SLIGHTLY
ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. WITH MODEL DATA STILL ARRIVING THIS
EVENING...A FEW TWEAKS MAY BE PERFORMED FOR TEMPERATURES ON
FRIDAY...BUT NO MAJOR WHOLESALE CHANGES ARE PLANNED.

.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES INTO THE PAC NW AND SURFACE
PRESSURE FALL ACROSS THE INTERIOR. AS A RESULT, MOST AREAS WILL
SEE A SOLID 5-10 DEGREE DROP IN HIGHS SAT. MAY ALSO SEE SOME
PATCHY MARINE LYR CLOUDS DEVELOPING ACROSS COASTAL LA/VENTURA
COUNTIES EARLY SAT MORNING.

NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE INCREASING SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE
PAC NW TROF, LIKELY GENERATING AT LEAST ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS (ESPECIALLY I5 CORRIDOR REGION) AND SOUTHERN SBA
COUNTY.

A SECOND AND SOMEWHAT DEEPER TROF WILL MOVE INTO THE WEST COAST
SUNDAY, BRINGING EVEN COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA. SOME OF THE
NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS WILL FILTER DOWN INTO THE
VALLEYS SUNDAY RESULTING IN BREEZY CONDITIONS IN MANY AREAS,
ESPECIALLY THE ANTELOPE VALLEY WHICH MAY SEE ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS BY
AFTERNOON. THE COLD AIR ADVECTION AND NORTHWEST FLOW WILL LIKELY
WIPE OUT ANY MARINE LYR CLOUDS FROM THE DAY BEFORE BUT HIGHS AT
LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL LIKELY TOP OUT IN THE MID 60S AT BEST.

LONG TERM (MON-THU)...FAIRLY COOL PATTERN AT LEAST FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK AS A COUPLE OF COLD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS DROP SOUTH
THROUGH OREGON AND NEVADA. THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE FURTHER WEST AND
SHARPER WITH THE TROF AXIS, BUT STILL TOO DRY FOR ANY WIDESPREAD
PRECIP. STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE MONDAY WITH ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ANTELOPE VALLEY. ALTHOUGH THE INVERSION
WILL BE VERY WEAK, THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SHOWING JUST ENOUGH
MOISTURE BELOW 850 MB TO SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
STRATOCUMULUS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF LA COUNTY
AND AREAS SOUTH AND EAST MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. IN FACT, IF THE
ECMWF IS CORRECT THERE COULD BE ENOUGH ENERGY TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME
DRIZZLE OR SPRINKLES ACROSS ERN LA COUNTY MONDAY INTO MONDAY
EVENING. FOR NOW THOUGH WILL JUST GO WITH A PARTLY CLOUDY AND COOL
FORECAST.

SOME IMPROVEMENT IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK BUT FAIRLY MINIMAL AS WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS ACROSS
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA WITH JUST MINOR INCREASE IN
HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES. THUS, A MUCH COOLER PATTERN NEXT WEEK THAN
WE`VE SEEN BUT STILL VERY LITTLE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. IN FACT,
LONGER RANGE MODELS SUGGESTING A RETURN TO WARMER CONDITIONS LATER
NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS THE ERN PACIFIC RIDGE RETURNS AND
BUILDS OVER THE WEST COAST.

.AVIATION...24/0530Z...

OVERALL...VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED AT MOST AIRFIELDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE THE LAX COUNTY COAST WHERE SOME
IFR/LIFR CONDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. WITH THE
DEVELOPING OFFSHORE FLOW...WILL EXPECT THESE CIG/VSBYS RESTRICTIONS
AT KLGB/KLAX TO IMPROVE NEAR SUNRISE.

THE OFFSHORE WINDS WILL PRODUCE SOME LLWS/TURBULENCE ISSUES ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS/VALLEYS AND COASTAL PLAIN THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

KLAX...LOW CONFIDENCE IN 06Z TAF. THERE IS A 40% CHANCE THE IFR/LIFR
CONDS DO NOT REACH THE AIRFIELD. IF THE IFR/LIFR CONDS DO DEVELOP
THERE IS A 50% CHANCE THE IFR/LIFR CONDS COULD LINGER FOR A COUPLE
HOURS BEYOND 13Z.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 06Z TAF.

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

PUBLIC...HALL/WOFFORD
AVIATION...RAT
SYNOPSIS...B/HALL

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA

846 PM PST THU FEB 23 2012

.SYNOPSIS...

.UPDATE...

.PREV DISCUSSION...

.AVIATION...24/0000Z.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD EXCEPT FOR A
CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 08Z AND 16Z AT KSBA AND KSMX...AND
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF VLIFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS AT LOS ANGELES AND SANTA
BARBARA COUNTY COASTAL TERMINALS. PERIODS OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
AND TURBULENCE WILL DEVELOP AFTER 04Z TONIGHT AT LOS ANGELES VALLEY
AND VENTURA COUNTY TERMINALS.

KLAX...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. BETWEEN
08Z AND 16Z TONIGHT...THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF VLIFR TO LIFR
CONDITIONS.

KBUR...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. PERIODS OF
MODERATE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND TURBULENCE WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN
04Z AND 10Z TONIGHT...WITH A CHANCE OF OCCASIONAL MODERATE TO STRONG
WIND SHEAR AND TURBULENCE BETWEEN 10Z AND 16Z FRIDAY.

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

PUBLIC...HALL/WOFFORD
AVIATION...HALL
SYNOPSIS...B/HALL

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NEW YORK NY

740 AM EST FRI FEB 24 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A POTENT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TODAY...WITH AN
ASSOCIATED COASTAL LOW TRACKING JUST TO OUR SOUTH THIS
EVENING...THEN ON NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH
SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA DEPARTS SATURDAY
NIGHT...THEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS THROUGH THE REGION OVER THE
START OF THE NEW WEEK. LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE NORTH WILL DRAG
A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE REGION LATE MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONT MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY RETURNS ON
TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A STORM SYSTEM FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SNOW HAS CHANGED OVER TO RAIN ACROSS THE CWA...SO WILL GO AHEAD
AND UPDATE THE FORECAST TO REMOVE MENTION OF SNOW/SLEET...AND WILL
CARRY PLAIN RAIN. WILL CANCEL THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THAT WAS
IN EFFECT FOR CT.

OTHERWISE...850 WARM FRONT LIFTS TO OUR NORTH BY MIDDAY...WITH
LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE IN ITS WAKE. SHOWERS MOVE INTO FAR WESTERN
ZONES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN OCCLUDED FRONT.

EXPECT THE SURFACE WARM FRONT EXPECTED TO STAY TO THE S OF LONG
ISLAND TODAY PER NAM/SREF/ECMWF WHICH GENERALLY PERFORM BETTER IN
THESE SITUATIONS INVOLVING A RETREATING DAMMING HIGH WITH SOME
CONFLUENCE ALOFT OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TO SUPPORT IT.

AS A RESULT...WENT WITH A BLEND OF COOLER MET GUIDANCE AND NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES FOR HIGHS...BUT NOT AS COLD AS HRRR 2-METER
TEMPERATURES. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS NORTHERN
INTERIOR ZONES TO LOW-MID 40S ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND THE NYC METRO.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
FOR TIMING THIS SYSTEM BLENDED THE NAM/ECMWF/CMC-GLOBAL/SREF.
EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO COME TO AN END BY MIDNIGHT ACROSS WESTERN
ZONES...AND A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS EASTERN ZONES.

MAIN STORY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL BE STRONG TO POTENTIALLY
DAMAGING GUSTY WINDS. WITH SREF SUPPORTING STRONGER GFS LOW
LEVEL/BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...HAVE GONE AHEAD
AND HOISTED A HIGH WIND WATCH FROM 3Z TONIGHT-23Z SATURDAY FOR NYC
AND LONG ISLAND AND A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA.
THIS IS BASED ON 950 HPA WINDS FORECAST TO AROUND 50 KT AND 900
WINDS FORECAST UP TO 60 KT WITH AN EXPECTED DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE
RATE UP THROUGH AT LEAST 800 HPA BY SATURDAY...WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS FORECAST OVER NYC/LONG ISLAND. EVEN IN THE
ADVISORY AREA THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME DOWNED TREES...BUT
THIS SHOULD BE EVEN MORE NUMEROUS IN THE HIGH WIND WATCH AREA...IF
THESE STRONGER WINDS DO MATERIALIZE.

COULD SEE SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS FAR W ORANGE
COUNTY...SATURDAY...SO HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THERE. WHILE A
SHOWER/SPRINKLE CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT ELSEWHERE WITH THE
PASSING OF THE 500 HPA TROUGH AXIS...NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO
REFLECT IN FORECAST.

FOR LOWS TONIGHT BLENDED MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES...AND FOR HIGHS SATURDAY BLENDED MAV/MET GUIDANCE
WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 800 HPA.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRES NEAR NEW BRUNSWICK DEPARTS SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRES
OVER THE MIDWEST CONTINUES TO BUILD EAST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL RELAX SATURDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING NW WINDS TO DIMINISH THROUGH
THE NIGHT. CAA WILL RESULT IN LOWS DROPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID
20S THROUGHOUT THE CWA. HIGH PRES MOVES EAST ON SUNDAY...THEN WILL
BE JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE RIGHT
AROUND NORMAL ON SUNDAY...TOPPING OFF IN THE MID 40S.

OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS SET UP SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...AND LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE
LOWER 30S IN/AROUND NYC...BUT WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 20S
ELSEWHERE.

HIGH PRES MOVES EAST ON MONDAY...AND RETURN FLOW SETS UP WITH A
STRONG S-SW FLOW. WAA WILL PUSH TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 50S OVER WESTERN AREAS AND IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S OVER EASTERN AREAS. LOW PRES WILL PASS NORTH OF THE AREA LATE
MONDAY...BUT IMPACTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL AND WILL NOT MENTION
PRECIP. HIGH PRES BUILDS THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY...KEEPING
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST.

MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM INTO THE
REGION FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE TIMING AND
STRENGTH DIFFERENCES AMONG THE GUIDANCE. WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS TUESDAY NIGHT AND HIGH CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
AS THE SYSTEM WORKS ITS WAY THROUGH THE REGION. TEMPS COULD BE
COLD ENOUGH AT NIGHT TO SUPPORT SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS
NORTHERN ZONES WHILE PRECIP WILL GENERALLY BE RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN
ZONES. DURING THE DAY...PRECIP SHOULD BE ALL RAIN...THOUGH THIS
COULD CHANGE AS MODELS GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE
SYSTEM.

HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL TOP OFF IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S
AND LOWS AT NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S.

.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
IFR WITH A WARM FRONT SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY. A DEEPENING LOW
OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON WILL FORM A SECONDARY
LOW ALONG THE FRONT OVER OUR REGION TOWARD EVENING. THE SYSTEM`S
COLD FRONT WILL THEN SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING.

MOST OF THE SNOW AND LOCALIZED SLEET FOR NORTHERN SECTIONS OVERNIGHT
IS NOW MOVING OUT OF THE AREA LEANING LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE. AN
AREA OF STEADIER RAIN WILL REACH THE NY METRO AROUND 9 AM...THOUGH
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN FLIGHT CATEGORY IS EXPECTED AS THE CONDITIONS
AVERAGE IFR...THERE THERE WILL BE FLUCTUATIONS. .

VFR RETURNS OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT WITH VERY STRONG GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF IFR ONSET IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN...
COULD BE LATER THAN FORECAST. LOW CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION LATE
THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN LOW PRESSURE TRACK UNCERTAINTY.

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF IFR ONSET IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN...
COULD BE LATER THAN FORECAST. LOW CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION LATER
THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN LOW PRESSURE TRACK UNCERTAINTY.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: BRIEF IMPROVEMENT IN CIG POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING. LOW CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN
LOW PRESSURE TRACK UNCERTAINTY.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: A LOT OF VARIABILITY IN CIG AND VSBY TODAY
THIS AMENDMENTS ARE EXPECTED. LOW CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION
LATER THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN LOW PRESSURE TRACK UNCERTAINTY.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: IFR CIG MAY IMPROVE TO MARGINAL OR POSSIBLY
HIGHER. LOW CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN
LOW PRESSURE TRACK UNCERTAINTY.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: A LOT OF VARIABILITY IN CIG AND VSBY TODAY
THIS AMENDMENTS ARE EXPECTED. LOW CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION LATER
THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN LOW PRESSURE TRACK UNCERTAINTY.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SAT THROUGH TUE...

.SAT...VFR. STRONG/GUSTY W-NW FLOW. 35 TO 40 KT GUSTS
POSSIBLE...THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISHING TOWARD EVENING.
.SUN-TUE...VFR.

.MARINE...
MAIN CHANGES THIS UPDATE WAS TO REFLECT LATEST TRENDS IN
PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING. REMAINDER OF FORECAST APPEARS ON
TRACK.

WITH SCA ALREADY UP ON ALL WATERS...DID NOT WANT TO TAKE
DOWN...THOUGH GUSTS ON EASTERLY FLOW OF 10-20 KT MIGHT ONLY
OCCASIONALLY REACH SMALL CRAFT LEVELS TODAY...OVER THE OCEAN ZONES
THOUGH...SCA WARRANTED WITH SEAS ALREADY AT SCA LEVELS.

HAVE HOISTED A STORM WATCH FOR ALL WATERS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR GUSTS TO STORM FORCE ON STRONG WEST WINDS IS
ACROSS SOUTHERN WATERS...THOUGH IF CURRENT FORECAST WIND DIRECTION
HOLDS...THEN CHANNELING EFFECTS IN THE SOUND COULD PROVIDE THE
EXTRA BOOST THERE.

THE TIMING FOR THE STRONGEST WIND GUSTS WILL BE LATE TONIGHT WHEN
THE STRONGEST WINDS PASS AT 900 HPA (AROUND 60 KT)...AND AGAIN
FROM LATE SATURDAY MORNING INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE
POTENTIAL TO MIX DOWN 50-55 KT WINDS AROUND 800 HPA. THESE WINDS
SHOULD BUILD SEAS ON THE OCEAN TO 6 TO 13 FT AND ON THE SOUND TO
4-8 FT BY SATURDAY MORNING.

GALE FORCE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS ON THE
WATERS FROM WEST TO EAST SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN CONDITIONS GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE TO SUB-ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRES BUILDS THROUGH THE WATERS FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK.
WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS...THOUGH SEAS MAY BRIEFLY
BUILD TO 3-5 FT ON THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS MONDAY EVENING AS WEAK
LOW PRES PASSES EAST OF THE WATERS.

.HYDROLOGY...
A STORM TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT RAINFALL OF 1/2 TO 3/4 INCH IS
FORECAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIP
IS EXPECTED UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
CTZ005>012.
NY...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
FOR NYZ072>075-078>081-176>179.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
NYZ067>071.
NJ... WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
MARINE...STORM WATCH FROM 6 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-
335-338-340-345-350-353-355.

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/MPS
NEAR TERM...MALOIT/MPS
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...MAS/JST
MARINE...MALOIT/MPS
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/MPS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NEW YORK NY

702 AM EST FRI FEB 24 2012

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW THAT WAS OVER CONNECTICUT HAS
MOVED EAST TOWARD CAPE COD. ANOTHER BATCH OF RAIN OR MIXED PRECIP
OVER EASTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND AND THE FORKS WILL TRACK EAST OF
THE AREA OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

OTHERWISE...APPEARS THERE WILL BE A BIT OF A LULL BEFORE THE NEXT
BATCH OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVES FROM THE MASON-DIXON LINE. SO HAVE
CHANGED WORDING TO PERIODS OF RAIN/SNOW/SLEET AS APPLICABLE.
EXPECT ALL PRECIPITATION TO CHANGE TO ALL RAIN BY MID MORNING FROM
S TO N AS WARMER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT.

850 WARM FRONT LIFTS TO OUR NORTH BY MIDDAY...WITH LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE IN ITS WAKE. SHOWERS MOVE INTO FAR WESTERN ZONES LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN OCCLUDED FRONT.

FOR LOWS TONIGHT BLENDED MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES...AND FOR HIGHS SATURDAY BLENDED MAV/MET GUIDANCE
WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 800 HPA.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRES NEAR NEW BRUNSWICK DEPARTS SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRES OVER
THE MIDWEST CONTINUES TO BUILD EAST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
RELAX SATURDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING NW WINDS TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE
NIGHT. CAA WILL RESULT IN LOWS DROPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S
THROUGHOUT THE CWA. HIGH PRES MOVES EAST ON SUNDAY...THEN WILL BE
JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE RIGHT
AROUND NORMAL ON SUNDAY...TOPPING OFF IN THE MID 40S.

OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS SET UP SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...AND LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE
LOWER 30S IN/AROUND NYC...BUT WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 20S
ELSEWHERE.

HIGH PRES MOVES EAST ON MONDAY...AND RETURN FLOW SETS UP WITH A
STRONG S-SW FLOW. WAA WILL PUSH TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 50S OVER WESTERN AREAS AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S
OVER EASTERN AREAS. LOW PRES WILL PASS NORTH OF THE AREA LATE
MONDAY...BUT IMPACTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL AND WILL NOT MENTION PRECIP.
HIGH PRES BUILDS THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY...KEEPING WARM AND
DRY CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST.

MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM INTO THE
REGION FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE TIMING AND
STRENGTH DIFFERENCES AMONG THE GUIDANCE. WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS TUESDAY NIGHT AND HIGH CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
AS THE SYSTEM WORKS ITS WAY THROUGH THE REGION. TEMPS COULD BE COLD
ENOUGH AT NIGHT TO SUPPORT SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS NORTHERN
ZONES WHILE PRECIP WILL GENERALLY BE RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES.
DURING THE DAY...PRECIP SHOULD BE ALL RAIN...THOUGH THIS COULD
CHANGE AS MODELS GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM.

HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL TOP OFF IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S
AND LOWS AT NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S.

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
IFR WITH A WARM FRONT SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY. A DEEPENING LOW
OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON WILL FORM A SECONDARY
LOW ALONG THE FRONT OVER OUR REGION TOWARD EVENING. THE SYSTEM`S
COLD FRONT WILL THEN SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING.

VFR RETURNS OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT WITH VERY STRONG GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS.

NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF IFR ONSET IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN...
COULD BE LATER THAN FORECAST. LOW CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION LATE
THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN LOW PRESSURE TRACK UNCERTAINTY.

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF IFR ONSET IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN...
COULD BE LATER THAN FORECAST. LOW CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION LATER
THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN LOW PRESSURE TRACK UNCERTAINTY.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: BRIEF IMPROVEMENT IN CIG POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING. LOW CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN
LOW PRESSURE TRACK UNCERTAINTY.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: A LOT OF VARIABILITY IN CIG AND VSBY TODAY
THIS AMENDMENTS ARE EXPECTED. LOW CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION
LATER THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN LOW PRESSURE TRACK UNCERTAINTY.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: IFR CIG MAY IMPROVE TO MARGINAL OR POSSIBLY
HIGHER. LOW CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN
LOW PRESSURE TRACK UNCERTAINTY.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: A LOT OF VARIABILITY IN CIG AND VSBY TODAY
THIS AMENDMENTS ARE EXPECTED. LOW CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION LATER
THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN LOW PRESSURE TRACK UNCERTAINTY.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SAT THROUGH TUE...

.SAT...VFR. STRONG/GUSTY W-NW FLOW. 35 TO 40 KT GUSTS
POSSIBLE...THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISHING TOWARD EVENING.
.SUN-TUE...VFR.

.MARINE...
MAIN CHANGES THIS UPDATE WAS TO REFLECT LATEST TRENDS IN
PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING. REMAINDER OF FORECAST APPEARS ON
TRACK.

GALE FORCE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS ON THE
WATERS FROM WEST TO EAST SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN CONDITIONS GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE TO SUB-ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

.HYDROLOGY...
A STORM TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT RAINFALL OF 1/2 TO 3/4 INCH IS
FORECAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIP
IS EXPECTED UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
CTZ005>012.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
CTZ005>012.
NY...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
FOR NYZ072>075-078>081-176>179.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
NYZ067>071.
NJ... WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
MARINE...STORM WATCH FROM 6 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-
335-338-340-345-350-353-355.

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/MPS
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...MAS/JST
MARINE...MALOIT/MPS
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/MPS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ALBANY NY

648 AM EST FRI FEB 24 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH SNOW AND RAIN. SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ALONG WITH WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM ON SATURDAY. FAIR AND
CHILLY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 500 AM...RADAR SHOWS THAT THE RUC SHORT TERM MODEL APPEARS TO
BE CORRECT THAT THE HEAVY BAND OF SNOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA WILL EXIT THE REGION TO THE EAST EARLY THIS MORNING...
AND ONLY RELATIVELY LIGHT SNOW WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REST OF
THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN A LULL IN THE PCPN FOR MUCH OF THE
MORNING AND INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF
SIGNIFICANT PCPN MOVES IN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES.

AS A RESULT...WITH NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOW EXPECTED TO MAKE
IT NORTH OF GREENE...COLUMBIA AND BERKSHIRE COUNTY EARLY THIS
MORNING...DECIDED TO DROP THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE
SCHOHARIE AND MOHAWK VALLEYS...THE HELDERBERGS AND THE NORTHERN
TACONICS. FURTHER NORTH SNOW WILL BE LIGHT THIS MORNING...BUT IT MAY
STILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW THIS AFTERNOON WHEN THE
NEXT ROUND OF PCPN ARRIVES...SO THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
CONTINUES ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS STATED IN THE NEAR TERM DISCUSSION...ANOTHER ROUND OF SIGNIFICANT
PCPN WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. BY THAT TIME MOST AREAS WILL BE TOO WARM FOR SNOW
RAIN...BUT AREAS FROM THE ADIRONDACKS TO LAKE GEORGE AND SOUTHERN
VERMONT COULD STILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO GET SOME SNOW FROM THE NEXT
ROUND OF PCPN...SO THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT
THERE. BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRONG WESTERLY WINDS AND THE
APPROACH OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROF ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW
WILL PRODUCE A PERIOD OF SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE REGION DUE TO A COMBINATION OF UPSLOPE AND LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
ACROSS THE REGION....WITH THIS PATTERN PERSISTING WELL INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT...BUT GRADUALLY DIMINISHING WITH TIME.

BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW EXPECT STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AND A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR SUNDAY WITH TRANQUIL BUT COLD
WEATHER.

LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE BETWEEN 20 AND 30 WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 50
MPH POSSIBLE BY LATE AT NIGHT. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER
20S TO LOWER 40S WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. WINDS WILL DECREASE SOMEWHAT SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT STILL
BLOW AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH. LIGHTER WINDS FINALLY
SUNDAY WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 MPH...BUT DECREASING EVEN FURTHER
BY LATE IN THE DAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 20S TO THE 30S.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DETERMINISTIC...BOTH 00Z EURO AND 00Z GFS SHOW WEAK UPPER IMPULSE
MOVING NORTH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES BUT
OVERALL IMPACT WILL BE FOR CLOUDS/CHANCE POPS OVER NORTHERN THIRD OF
AREA. REST OF AREA SHOULD REMAIN PARTLY SUNNY AND DRY. AFTER
IMPULSE PASSES BY A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES AREA MONDAY NIGHT. COLD
ADVECTION MAY LEAD TO SOME SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SO
SLT/CHC POPS NORTHWEST EARLY TUESDAY BUT RIDGING SHOULD LEAD TO
MAINLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS AREA. BY WEDNESDAY ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
MOVES INTO GREAT LAKES REGION AND UP SAINT LAWRENCE AND LIKE PRESENT
STORM...THIS ONE BRINGS WINTRY MIX CHANGING TO RAIN AND BACK TO SNOW
DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO AND OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. EURO A LITTLE
SLOWER BUT BY LATE THURSDAY ALL BUT FAR NORTHWEST SHOULD BE DRY WITH
LINGERING LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS. BOTH MODELS SHOW
RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH FAIR WEATHER.

PROBABILISTIC...00Z GEFS ENSEMBLES SHOW HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF
PRECIP ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. EXTENDED STATISTICAL GUIDANCE
SHOWS TEMPS AVERAGING ABOVE NORMAL ALTHOUGH SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER OHIO THIS MORNING WILL MOVE UP THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL BRING PERIODS OF SNOW AND RAIN TO
KALB AND KGFL WHILE KPOU WILL SEE PERIODS OF RAIN. MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES MOST OF TODAY INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE
A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH. BEHIND THE FRONT SOME LIGHT SNOW OR
SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AT KGFL AND KALB WITH MVFR. VFR
BEHIND FRONT AT KPOU.

WINDS WILL BE EAST NORTHEAST AT 6 KTS OR LESS FRIDAY MORNING AND
EAST TO SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
SWITCH TO SOUTHWEST TO WEST NEAR MIDNIGHT AND BECOME GUSTY. WINDS
SATURDAY WEST TO NORTHWEST 15 TO 25 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUST TO 40KT.

OUTLOOK....
LATE FRI NGT...VFR/MVFR...CHC -SHSN. BECOMING WINDY.
SAT...VFR...SLIGHT CHC -SHSN. WINDY.
SAT NIGHT-SUN...VFR...DECREASING WINDS.
MON...VFR SLIGHT CHC -SHRA/-SHSN.
TUE...VFR.

.HYDROLOGY...
SOME MODERATE RIVER RISES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF
OUR AREA TONIGHT AS RUNOFF FROM MELTING SNOW COMBINES WITH RUNOFF
FROM SOME HEAVIER DOWNPOURS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SOME PONDING OF
WATER IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS MAY SLOW THE EVENING
COMMUTE. NO LARGER RIVER FLOODING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

SOME GAGES ARE STILL BEING IMPACTED BY ICE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA. PERSISTENT COLD TEMPERATURES THIS
WEEKEND MAY ALLOW ADDITIONAL ICE FORMATION TO OCCUR LATE SATURDAY
INTO EARLY MONDAY IN BASINS NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NYZ058-063.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR NYZ032-033-
038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ032-
033-042-043-061-082-083.
MA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MAZ001-
025.
VT...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR VTZ013>015.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
VTZ013>015.

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...SND
AVIATION...SND
HYDROLOGY...SND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ALBANY NY

600 AM EST FRI FEB 24 2012

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS STATED IN THE NEAR TERM DISCUSSION...ANOTHER ROUND OF SIGNIFICANT
PCPN WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A FRONTL
BOUNDARY. BY THAT TIME MOST AREAS WILL BE TOO WARM FOR SNOW
RAIN...BUT AREAS FROM THE ADIRONDACKS TO LAKE GEORGE AND SOUTHERN
VERMONT COULD STILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO GET SOME SNOW FROM THE NEXT
ROUND OF PCPN...SO THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT
THERE. BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRONG WESTERLY WINDS AND THE
APPROACH OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROF ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW
WILL PRODUCE A PERIOD OF SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE REGION DUE TO A COMBINATION OF UPSLOPE AND LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
ACROSS THE REGION....WITH THIS PATTERN PERSISTING WELL INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT...BUT GRADUALLY DIMINISHING WITH TIME.

BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW EXPECT STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AND A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR SUNDAY WITH TRANQUIL BUT COLD
WEATHER.

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT
BRINGING A WINTRY MIX WITH VFR CONDITIONS GIVING WAY TO MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS BETWEEN 08Z AND 13Z FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. THE WINTRY MIX
IS THEN EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CHANGE TO ALL RAIN AT THE TAF SITES
BTWN 13Z AND 18Z WITH KGFL BEING THE SLOWEST TO CHANGE TO RAIN.
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES FROM 16Z-18Z
THROUGH MOST OF THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD EXCEPT AT KPOU WHICH
COULD BECOME VFR FOR THE LAST FEW HOURS.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT
AND THEN BECOME EAST NORTHEAST AT 6 KTS OR LESS FRIDAY MORNING AND
EAST TO SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. DEPENDING
ON THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONT PASSAGE WINDS MAY SWITCH TO SOUTHWEST
TO WEST NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AND BECOME GUSTY.

OUTLOOK....
LATE FRI NGT...VFR/MVFR...CHC -SHSN. BECOMING WINDY.
SAT...VFR...SLIGHT CHC -SHSN. WINDY.
SAT NIGHT-SUN...VFR...DECREASING WINDS.
MON...VFR SLIGHT CHC -SHRA/-SHSN.
TUE...VFR.

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...SND
AVIATION...SND
HYDROLOGY...SND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NEW YORK NY

551 AM EST FRI FEB 24 2012

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HAVE ANOTHER AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW HEADING TOWARDS CT
FROM NE NJ TO FAR NW LONG ISLAND. WITH REPORTS OF 1 TO 4" ALREADY
ACROSS SOUTHERN CT...HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED A SHORT FUSED
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN CT THROUGH 10 AM.

APPEARS THERE WILL BE A BIT OF A LULL BEFORE THE NEXT BATCH OF
PRECIPITATION ARRIVES FROM THE MASON-DIXON LINE. SO HAVE CHANGED
WORDING TO PERIODS OF RAIN/SNOW/SLEET AS APPLICABLE. EXPECT ALL
PRECIPITATION TO CHANGE TO ALL RAIN BY MID MORNING FROM S TO N AS
WARMER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT.

850 WARM FRONT LIFTS TO OUR NORTH BY MIDDAY...WITH LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE IN ITS WAKE. SHOWERS MOVE INTO FAR WESTERN ZONES LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN OCCLUDED FRONT.

FOR LOWS TONIGHT BLENDED MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES...AND FOR HIGHS SATURDAY BLENDED MAV/MET GUIDANCE
WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 800 HPA.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRES NEAR NEW BRUNSWICK DEPARTS SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRES OVER
THE MIDWEST CONTINUES TO BUILD EAST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
RELAX SATURDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING NW WINDS TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE
NIGHT. CAA WILL RESULT IN LOWS DROPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S
THROUGHOUT THE CWA. HIGH PRES MOVES EAST ON SUNDAY...THEN WILL BE
JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE RIGHT
AROUND NORMAL ON SUNDAY...TOPPING OFF IN THE MID 40S.

OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS SET UP SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...AND LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE
LOWER 30S IN/AROUND NYC...BUT WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 20S
ELSEWHERE.

HIGH PRES MOVES EAST ON MONDAY...AND RETURN FLOW SETS UP WITH A
STRONG S-SW FLOW. WAA WILL PUSH TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 50S OVER WESTERN AREAS AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S
OVER EASTERN AREAS. LOW PRES WILL PASS NORTH OF THE AREA LATE
MONDAY...BUT IMPACTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL AND WILL NOT MENTION PRECIP.
HIGH PRES BUILDS THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY...KEEPING WARM AND
DRY CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST.

MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM INTO THE
REGION FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE TIMING AND
STRENGTH DIFFERENCES AMONG THE GUIDANCE. WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS TUESDAY NIGHT AND HIGH CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
AS THE SYSTEM WORKS ITS WAY THROUGH THE REGION. TEMPS COULD BE COLD
ENOUGH AT NIGHT TO SUPPORT SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS NORTHERN
ZONES WHILE PRECIP WILL GENERALLY BE RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES.
DURING THE DAY...PRECIP SHOULD BE ALL RAIN...THOUGH THIS COULD
CHANGE AS MODELS GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM.

HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL TOP OFF IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S
AND LOWS AT NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S.

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FR AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE S THIS MORNING. LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN
SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING.

PRECIP OVER THE AREA AS OF 09Z WITH KSWF/KHPN/KBDR/KGON EXPERIENCING
SN OR MIXED. HEAVIEST PRECIP LIFTS NE BY 11Z...BECOMING MORE SHOWERY
WITH A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN AFTER SUNRISE.

IFR TO LOW IFR EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE DAY WITH OCNL -SHRA. THERE
MAY BE A RELATIVE LULL IN PRECIP WITH DZ PREDOMINATING AFTER MID
MORNING. SHOWERS RETURN AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT LATER IN THE EVENING
ON.

VFR RETURNS OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT WITH VERY STRONG GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS.

NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: CEILINGS MAY TAKE LONGER TO LOWER THIS MORNING
THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. LOW CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION LATER THIS
AFTERNOON GIVEN LOW PRESSURE TRACK UNCERTAINTY.

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: CEILINGS MAY TAKE LONGER TO LOWER THIS MORNING
THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. LOW CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION LATER THIS
AFTERNOON GIVEN LOW PRESSURE TRACK UNCERTAINTY.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: CEILINGS MAY TAKE LONGER TO LOWER THIS MORNING
THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. LOW CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION LATER THIS
AFTERNOON GIVEN LOW PRESSURE TRACK UNCERTAINTY.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION LATER THIS
AFTERNOON GIVEN LOW PRESSURE TRACK UNCERTAINTY.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION LATER THIS
AFTERNOON GIVEN LOW PRESSURE TRACK UNCERTAINTY.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION LATER THIS
AFTERNOON GIVEN LOW PRESSURE TRACK UNCERTAINTY.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SAT THROUGH TUE...

.FRI NIGHT-SAT...VFR. STRONG/GUSTY W-NW FLOW. 40-45 KT POSSIBLE
EARLY...THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISHING.

.SUN-TUE...VFR.

.MARINE...
MAIN CHANGES THIS UPDATE WAS TO REFLECT LATEST TRENDS IN
PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING. REMAINDER OF FORECAST APPEARS ON
TRACK.

GALE FORCE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS ON THE
WATERS FROM WEST TO EAST SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN CONDITIONS GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE TO SUB-ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

.HYDROLOGY...
A STORM TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT RAINFALL OF 1/2 TO 3/4 INCH IS
FORECAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIP
IS EXPECTED UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
CTZ005>012.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
CTZ005>012.
NY...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
FOR NYZ072>075-078>081-176>179.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
NYZ067>071.
NJ... WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
MARINE...STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-
335-338-340-345-350-353-355.

SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/MPS
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...MALOIT/MPS
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/MPS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ALBANY NY

538 AM EST FRI FEB 24 2012

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COMING SOON.

OUTLOOK....
FRI...MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS...TRANSITION TO RA FROM KPOU TO KGFL IN
THE MORNING.
FRI NGT...VFR/MVFR...CHC -SHSN. BECOMING WINDY.
SAT...VFR...SLIGHT CHC -SHSN. WINDY.
SAT NIGHT-SUN...VFR...DECREASING WINDS.
MON...VFR SLIGHT CHC -SHRA/-SHSN.
TUE...VFR.

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...SND
AVIATION...SND
HYDROLOGY...SND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ALBANY NY

535 AM EST FRI FEB 24 2012

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM TODAY/...
AS OF 500 AM...RADAR SHOWS THAT THE RUC SHORT TERM MODEL APPEARS TO
BE CORRECT THAT THE HEAVY BAND OF SNOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA WILL EXIT THE REGION TO THE EAST EARLY THIS MORNING...
AND ONLY RELATIVELY LIGHT SNOW WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REST OF
THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN A LULL IN THE PCPN FOR MUCH OF THE
MORNING AND INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF
SIGNIFICANT PCPN MOVES IN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES.

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COMING SOON.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DETERMINISTIC...BOTH 00Z EURO AND 00Z GFS SHOW WEAK UPPER IMPULSE
MOVING NORTH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES BUT
OVERALL IMPACT WILL BE FOR CLOUDS/CHANCE POPS OVER NORTHERN THIRD OF
AREA. REST OF AREA SHOULD REMAIN PARTLY SUNNY AND DRY. AFTER
IMPULSE PASSES BY A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES AREA MONDAY NIGHT. COLD
ADVECTION MAY LEAD TO SOME SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SO
SLT/CHC POPS NORTHWEST EARLY TUESDAY BUT RIDGING SHOULD LEAD TO
MAINLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS AREA. BY WEDNESDAY ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
MOVES INTO GREAT LAKES REGION AND UP SAINT LAWRENCE AND LIKE PRESENT
STORM...THIS ONE BRINGS WINTRY MIX CHANGING TO RAIN AND BACK TO SNOW
DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO AND OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. EURO A LITTLE
SLOWER BUT BY LATE THURSDAY ALL BUT FAR NORTHWEST SHOULD BE DRY WITH
LINGERING LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS. BOTH MODELS SHOW
RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH FAIR WEATHER.

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT
BRINGING A WINTRY MIX WITH VFR CONDITIONS GIVING WAY TO MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS BETWEEN 08Z AND 13Z FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. THE WINTRY MIX
IS THEN EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CHANGE TO ALL RAIN AT THE TAF SITES
BTWN 13Z AND 18Z WITH KGFL BEING THE SLOWEST TO CHANGE TO RAIN.
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES FROM 16Z-18Z
THROUGH MOST OF THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD EXCEPT AT KPOU WHICH
COULD BECOME VFR FOR THE LAST FEW HOURS.

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ058-063.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
NYZ032-033-042-043-061-082-083.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
VTZ013>015.

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...SND
AVIATION...SND
HYDROLOGY...SND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NEW YORK NY

458 AM EST FRI FEB 24 2012

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
INITIAL BURST OF WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION PUSHING THROUGH
REGION WITH SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES...AMOUNTS
ON A ZONE BASIS WILL AVERAGE LESS THAN 3 INCHES...SO AM ADDRESSING
WITH SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS. ALSO HAVE HAD SOME REPORTS OF
SLEET MIXED IN AT TIMES ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES. EXPECT ALL
PRECIPITATION TO CHANGE TO ALL RAIN BY MID MORNING FROM S TO N AS
WARMER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT.

850 WARM FRONT LIFTS TO OUR NORTH BY MIDDAY...WITH LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE IN ITS WAKE. SHOWERS MOVE INTO FAR WESTERN ZONES LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN OCCLUDED FRONT.

FOR LOWS TONIGHT BLENDED MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES...AND FOR HIGHS SATURDAY BLENDED MAV/MET GUIDANCE
WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 800 HPA.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRES NEAR NEW BRUNSWICK DEPARTS SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRES OVER
THE MIDWEST CONTINUES TO BUILD EAST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
RELAX SATURDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING NW WINDS TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE
NIGHT. CAA WILL RESULT IN LOWS DROPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S
THROUGHOUT THE CWA. HIGH PRES MOVES EAST ON SUNDAY...THEN WILL BE
JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE RIGHT
AROUND NORMAL ON SUNDAY...TOPPING OFF IN THE MID 40S.

OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS SET UP SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...AND LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE
LOWER 30S IN/AROUND NYC...BUT WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 20S
ELSEWHERE.

HIGH PRES MOVES EAST ON MONDAY...AND RETURN FLOW SETS UP WITH A
STRONG S-SW FLOW. WAA WILL PUSH TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 50S OVER WESTERN AREAS AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S
OVER EASTERN AREAS. LOW PRES WILL PASS NORTH OF THE AREA LATE
MONDAY...BUT IMPACTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL AND WILL NOT MENTION PRECIP.
HIGH PRES BUILDS THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY...KEEPING WARM AND
DRY CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST.

MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM INTO THE
REGION FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE TIMING AND
STRENGTH DIFFERENCES AMONG THE GUIDANCE. WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS TUESDAY NIGHT AND HIGH CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
AS THE SYSTEM WORKS ITS WAY THROUGH THE REGION. TEMPS COULD BE COLD
ENOUGH AT NIGHT TO SUPPORT SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS NORTHERN
ZONES WHILE PRECIP WILL GENERALLY BE RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES.
DURING THE DAY...PRECIP SHOULD BE ALL RAIN...THOUGH THIS COULD
CHANGE AS MODELS GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM.

HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL TOP OFF IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S
AND LOWS AT NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S.

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FR AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE S THIS MORNING. LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN
SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING.

PRECIP OVER THE AREA AS OF 09Z WITH KSWF/KHPN/KBDR/KGON EXPERIENCING
SN OR MIXED. HEAVIEST PRECIP LIFTS NE BY 11Z...BECOMING MORE SHOWERY
WITH A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN AFTER SUNRISE.

VFR RETURNS OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT WITH VERY STRONG GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: CEILINGS MAY TAKE LONGER TO LOWER THIS MORNING
THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. LOW CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION LATER THIS
AFTERNOON GIVEN LOW PRESSURE TRACK UNCERTAINTY.

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: CEILINGS MAY TAKE LONGER TO LOWER THIS MORNING
THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. LOW CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION LATER THIS
AFTERNOON GIVEN LOW PRESSURE TRACK UNCERTAINTY.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: CEILINGS MAY TAKE LONGER TO LOWER THIS MORNING
THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. LOW CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION LATER THIS
AFTERNOON GIVEN LOW PRESSURE TRACK UNCERTAINTY.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION LATER THIS
AFTERNOON GIVEN LOW PRESSURE TRACK UNCERTAINTY.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION LATER THIS
AFTERNOON GIVEN LOW PRESSURE TRACK UNCERTAINTY.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION LATER THIS
AFTERNOON GIVEN LOW PRESSURE TRACK UNCERTAINTY.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SAT THROUGH TUE...

.FRI NGT-SAT...VFR. STRONG/GUSTY W-NW FLOW. 40-45 KT POSSIBLE
EARLY...THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISHING.

.SUN-TUE...VFR.

.MARINE...
WITH SCA ALREADY UP ON ALL WATERS...DID NOT WANT TO TAKE
DOWN...THOUGH GUSTS ON EASTERLY FLOW OF 10-20 KT MIGHT ONLY
OCCASIONALLY REACH SMALL CRAFT LEVELS TODAY...OVER THE OCEAN ZONES
THOUGH...SCA WARRANTED WITH SEAS ALREADY AT SCA LEVELS.

GALE FORCE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS ON THE
WATERS FROM WEST TO EAST SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN CONDITIONS GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE TO SUB-ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

.HYDROLOGY...
A STORM TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT RAINFALL OF 1/2 TO 3/4 INCH IS
FORECAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIP
IS EXPECTED UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
CTZ005>012.
NY...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
FOR NYZ072>075-078>081-176>179.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
NYZ067>071.
NJ... WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
MARINE...STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-
335-338-340-345-350-353-355.

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/MPS
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...MALOIT/MPS
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/MPS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TAUNTON MA

1248 AM EST FRI FEB 24 2012

.SYNOPSIS...

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A WINTRY MIX AND HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE...GRADUALLY CHANGING OVER
TO RAIN TOWARDS THE MIDDAY INTO AFTERNOON HOURS. GUSTY WINDS ARE
LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THIS STORM EXITS. HIGH
PRESSURE KEEPS CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH MUCH OF THE EARLY WEEK. A
COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH NEW ENGLAND MONDAY NIGHT.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...

10 PM UPDATE...

THE CALM BEFORE THE STORM. HAVE UPDATED TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT
GRIDS ACCORDINGLY TO REFLECT THE LATEST FORECAST TRENDS. FOR THE
MOST PART EVERYTHING REMAINS ON TRACK WITHIN THE NEAR TERM.
WATCHING AN AREA OF CLEARING PER LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF RADIATIONAL COOLING RESULTING
IN TEMPS TO FALL BELOW FRZG. THIS IS PRESENTLY THE CASE ACROSS
THE CT VALLEY RGN.

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...

10 PM UPDATE...

LOOKING AT 18Z AND LATEST 0Z GUIDANCE ATTESTS TO AN AREA OF
DEFINITIVE FRONTOGENETICAL BANDING /AND STRONG VIGOROUS LIFT THRU
THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE REGION/ ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MASS
PIKE BEGINNING AROUND 4-5 AM AND CONTINUING ON THROUGH THE MORNING
COMMUTE INTO THE MID-MORNING HRS. CHALLENGES TO OVERCOME CONCERN
THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED COUPLED WITH SFC TEMPS AND
BOUNDARY LYR PROFILE UP TO H7. THE LATEST RUNS FROM THE HRRR AND
0Z NAM /INCLUDING THE 12Z RUNS OF THE NMM- AND ARW- CORE WRF
SOLNS/ HAVE PROGRESSIVELY SHOWN THAT ALTHO INITIALLY PRECIPITATION
MAY START OUT IN THE FORM OF RAIN...THE HEAVY NATURE OF THE PRECIP
SHOULD COOL THE LOWER ATMOS COLUMN DOWN TO ITS RESPECTIVE WET-BULB
TEMP /LIKELY AT OR BELOW FRZG/ RESULTING IN THE RAIN TO TRANSITION
OVER TO SNOW. ANTICIPATING MOST LOCALES WILL LIKELY HOVER AROUND
THE FRZG MARK.

AS THE AREA OF LOW PRES BECOMES MORE DYNAMIC ACROSS THE ERN GRT
LKS RGN...MDL SOUNDINGS ARE HIGHLIGHTING A PRONOUNCED WARMING
AROUND H8 WITH INCREASED S/SWLY FLOW AT THE LOW-MID LVLS WHICH
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SNOW TO TRANSITION TO SLEET. SPATIAL AND
TEMPORAL SPECIFICS ARE DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN...BUT ONE THING IS
FOR CERTAIN AND THAT SIMPLY IS THE FACT THAT IT WILL BE A MESSY
MORNING COMMUTE FOR LOCALES ALONG AND S OF THE MASS PIKE WITH A
WINTRY MIX RESULTING IN HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS AND REDUCED
VISIBILITIES. IMPORTANT TO NOTE IS THE LIKELY IMPACTS TO METRO
AREAS SUCH AS HARTFORD...PROVIDENCE...AND SOUTH BOSTON.

WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CURRENT WINTER WX ADVISORIES...AND HAVE
ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR ALL OTHER AREAS ADVISING OF
ISSUES ANTICIPATED DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE. AM WATCHING
CLOSELY THE LATEST 0Z MDL FCSTS FOR FURTHER GUIDANCE. WILL UPDATE
ACCORDINGLY.

AS FOR SNOW TOTALS...AM EXPECTING BANDING THRU THE S TIER OF NEW
ENGLAND AS STATED PREVIOUSLY ALONG AND S OF THE MASS PIKE. WITH
THE INFLUENCE OF WARMER AIR ALOFT...WE MAY NOT SEE A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF SNOW...AND A TRANSITION OVER TO SLEET. LOOKING AT ACCUMS
AROUND 1-2 INCHES PRESENTLY. WILL UPDATE ACCORDINGLY WITH THE
LATEST FCST GUIDANCE. AS KNOWN THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN ACCUM
BETWEEN SNOW AND SLEET AS SNOW HAS A FLUFF FACTOR. ELY ONSHORE
FLOW INCREASING WITH THE DEEPENING SYS WILL KEEP MUCH OF THE PRECIP
ALONG THE SHORELINES AS MAINLY RAIN /ALTHO AN INITIAL BURST OF
SNOW CANT BE RULED OUT FOR THE WRN CAPE/.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...
* SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND
* COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
* STORM MOVES THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK

MODEL DISCUSSION...23/12Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. AFTER THAT THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN HOW A LOW
PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION MID-WEEK. THE GFS BRINGS THE LOW
PRESSURE INSIDE OVER NEW YORK AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS IS A
WARMER SCENARIO WHICH WOULD KEEP MOST OF THE PRECIP LIQUID. THE
ECMWF TAKES A MORE COASTAL TRACK WHICH COULD BRING IN ENOUGH COLD
AIR FOR SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION.

FRIDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL MOVE INTO THE
MARITIMES. AS THE LOW DEPARTS THE AREA...ANY LINGERING PRECIP IN THE
AREA WILL DIMINISH AND GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION BRINGING
SEASONABLY COOL...DRY WEATHER TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

MONDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS QUEBEC BRINGING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL BE A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AS STATED ABOVE IN THE MODEL DISCUSSION
SECTION...THERE ARE DISCREPANCIES REGARDING THE PATH OF THE LOW.
THE EVENTUAL PATH WILL BE THE MAIN FACTOR IN DETERMINING PTYPE FOR
THIS STORM. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF A PERIOD OF WINTRY
PRECIPITATION DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT
MODERATE...30 PERCENT TO 60 PERCENT
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT

REMAINDER OF TONIGHT...
HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR INTO 9-10Z. THEREAFTER SHOULD SEE CIGS AND
VSBYS LOWER TO IFR WITH THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HRS WITH SN LENDING TO 1-2 VSBYS AND CIGS FALLING
IFR W TO E ACROSS THE TERMINALS. TERMINALS IMPACTED BY RA SHOULD
SEE MVFR VSBYS.

FRIDAY...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IFR-LIFR...ESPECIALLY FOR TERMINALS ALONG AND S OF
THE MASS PIKE WHERE HEAVY BANDING OF PRECIP IS EXPECTED DURING THE
MORNING PD ALONG WITH IFR-LIFR CIGS. TERMINALS IMPACTED BY SN
SHOULD SEE VSBYS AROUND 1 SM WHERE A WINTRY MIX WILL YIELD 2 SM
VSBYS. AREAS WITH RA...LIKELY ALONG THE SE TERMINALS...WILL SEE A
MIX OF IFR-MVFR VSBYS. ELY WINDS STRONGEST ALONG THE SHORES.
CONDITIONS MAY SEE A SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT TOWARDS THE LATE PORTION
OF THE DAY AS PRECIP MOVES OUT OF THE RGN.

FRIDAY NIGHT...
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IFR LIFTING VFR. WILL SEE PRECIP THE EARLY
PORTION OF THE TAF PD AS A MIX OF RA/SN LENDING TO REDUCED VSBYS.
WILL LIKELY BE IFR CIGS HANGING AROUND. BY MIDNIGHT DRIER AIR
SHOULD ALLOW FOR CONDITIONS TO STEADILY IMPROVE INTO MORNING.
EXPECT ELY FLOW TO REVERT OUT OF THE SW AND INCREASE.

KBOS TERMINAL...
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS SHORTLY BEFORE MORNING WITH THE INITIAL
ONSET OF SNOW. ANTICIPATING WITH ELY ONSHORE FLOW THAT SN WILL BE
BRIEF AND CHANGE OVER TO RA. NEVERTHELESS SHOULD STILL SEE IFR-
LIFR CIGS IMPACT THE TERMINAL A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY...STEADILY
IMPROVING OVRNGT AS ELY WINDS SHIFT AND INCREASE OUT OF THE SW.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. WINDS
GUST UP TO 30 KNOTS SATURDAY...PARTICULARLY ON THE COAST.

.MARINE...

TONIGHT...
WINDS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE WATERS AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE
RGN. EXPECT WAVES TO STILL REMAIN AROUND 5 FEET FOR THE OPEN
WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE CONTINUED. WILL SEE
SEAS BEGIN TO BUILD AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY IN RESPONSE TO
A BUILDING SYSTEM THRU THE GREAT LAKES...ELY FLOW TO INCREASE
ALONG WITH WAVE HEIGHTS.

FRIDAY...
STRONG STORM SYSTEM POISED TO LIFT THRU NEW ENGLAND. ELY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA AND WILL LIKELY TO SEE WINDS GUSTING IN
EXCESS OF 25 KTS WITH BUILDING SEAS UP TO 10 FT. THERE IS A LOW
PROBABILITY OF GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS LATE IN THE PD.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES OVER THE WATERS. A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS TIME
PERIOD. EASTERLY WINDS TO START WILL SWITCH AROUND TO THE WEST
EARLY SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE
STARTS TO BUILD OVER THE WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY
BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THIS TIME.

SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS BELOW 25 KTS. SEAS WILL BE 5-6 FEET ON THE
OUTER WATERS...DIMINISHING BELOW 5 FEET AFTER MIDNIGHT.

MONDAY...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS WILL RISE FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS. THEN
WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA AND REMAIN THERE
THROUGH TUESDAY.

.CLIMATE...

FEBRUARY OF 2012 IS SHAPING UP TO BE ANOTHER MONTH WITH WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. IN FACT...FROM JULY
2011 ONWARD EVERY MONTH HAS AVERAGED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AT
ALL 4 MAJOR CLIMATE SITES.

FEBRUARY MONTHLY AVERAGE AND DEPARTURES THROUGH THE 21TH:

BOSTON - 36.3 DEGREES WHICH IS +5.2 ABOVE NORMAL: TIED FOR 5TH

TOP 5 WARMEST FEBRUARIES IN BOSTON SINCE 1872
1) 38.0 DEGREES IN 1925
2) 37.6 DEGREES IN 1984
3) 37.3 DEGREES IN 1976
4) 36.4 DEGREES IN 1954 AND 1981
5) 36.3 DEGREES IN 2002

PROVIDENCE - 35.2 DEGREES WHICH IS +3.9 ABOVE NORMAL

TOP 5 WARMEST FEBRUARIES IN PROVIDENCE SINCE 1905: NOT IN TOP 5
1) 37.4 DEGREES IN 1981
2) 37.1 DEGREES IN 1984
3) 37.0 DEGREES IN 1998
4) 36.5 DEGREES IN 1997
5) 36.3 DEGREES IN 1949

WINDSOR LOCKS - 35.4 DEGREES WHICH IS +6.4 ABOVE NORMAL: 3RD SO FAR

TOP 5 WARMEST FEBRUARIES IN WINDSOR LOCKS SINCE 1905
1) 36.2 DEGREES IN 1954 AND 1998
2) 35.6 DEGREES IN 1925
3) 35.3 DEGREES IN 1981
4) 34.8 DEGREES IN 1976
5) 34.7 DEGREES IN 1997

WORCESTER - 32.2 DEGREES WHICH IS +5.9 ABOVE NORMAL

TOP 5 WARMEST FEBRUARIES IN WORCESTER SINCE 1892: NOT IN TOP 5
1) 34.0 DEGREES IN 1984
2) 33.4 DEGREES IN 1925
3) 32.9 DEGREES IN 1998
4) 32.8 DEGREES IN 1981
5) 32.4 DEGREES IN 1954

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
MAZ002>004-008>010-026.
NH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NHZ011-
015.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ235-
237-250-254>256.

SYNOPSIS...RLG/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...RLG/SIPPRELL
MARINE...RLG/DUNTEN
CLIMATE...WFO BOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ

658 PM EST SAT FEB 25 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
AN INTENSE LOW OVER THE MARITIMES WILL BEGIN WEAKENING EARLY SUNDAY
AS IT MOVES INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC SOUTH OF GREENLAND. HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL REACH THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE CROSSING NEW ENGLAND LATE MONDAY
WILL SEND A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES MONDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO OUR NORTH
ON TUESDAY. THAT COLD HIGH MAY LOCK IN OVER QUEBEC THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...SETTING THE STAGE FOR WINTRY WEATHER IN PORTIONS OF NEW
JERSEY AND PENNSYLVANIA DURING MID WEEK. STRONG LOW PRESSURE IN
THE UPPER MIDWEST ON WEDNESDAY WILL WEAKEN AS IT REDEVELOPS ALONG
THE DELMARVA COAST THURSDAY AND THEN HEADS OUT TO SEA. THE CANADIAN
HIGH REASSERTS CONTROL HERE FOR A PORTION OF FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ARRIVES TO START THE WEEKEND.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
EVEN THOUGH WINDS ARE DIMINISHING AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING, WINDS ARE STILL GUSTING 40-45 MPH ACROSS THE
AREA AT MANY PLACES. THEREFORE, THE WIND ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED
THROUGH 10 PM.

AS THE INTENSE STORM IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES CONTINUES TO MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO EDGE CLOSER FROM THE
WEST THROUGH TONIGHT. THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS HOWEVER IS
FORECAST TO SWING ACROSS OUR AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. THE
COMBINATION OF DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW, CAA AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES HAVE ALLOWED SNOW SHOWERS TO OCCUR MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. THESE ARE MORE CONVECTIVE, AND ANY
STRONGER ACTIVITY COULD PRODUCE A BURST OF SNOW. ANY LOCAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AN INCH OR LESS AS IT APPEARS THE
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE TRANSIENT. SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS

THERE ARE TWO MAIN AREAS OF SNOW ON THE RADAR THIS EVENING. ONE
ACROSS AREA CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK, AND THE
OTHER ONE DRAPED ACROSS NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN NEW
JERSEY. THE HRRR AND 12Z SPC WRF-NMM HAS PICKED UP ON THIS
ACTIVITY FAIRLY WELL EARLIER, SO WE LEANED OUR POPS CLOSER TO
THIS, WITH SOME LIKELY VALUES ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST INTO THIS
EVENING, AND SOME HIGHER CHC VALUES FARTHER SOUTH. IF THESE BANDS
OCCUR, A BURST OF HEAVIER SNOW WILL FALL WHICH WILL GREATLY REDUCE
THE VISIBILITY FOR A SHORT TIME. AS WE TAPERED THE POPS DOWN WITH
A SOUTHEASTWARD EXTENT, DID CARRY SCATTERED FLURRIES ON THE
SOUTHERN END FOR NOW WITH MOST OF THIS MENTION ALONG AND
NORTH/WEST OF INTERSTATE 95. ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN AND THEN
DISSIPATE DURING THE NIGHT AS SOME DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE BEGINS
TO WORK INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW THE STRATOCUMULUS TO
RETREAT NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES, WE GENERALLY USED A BLEND OF THE GFS/NAM
MOS. THE WINDS SHOULD DROP OFF ENOUGH LATER TONIGHT TO ALLOW THE
TEMPERATURES TO DROP MORE GIVEN THE LOW DEW POINTS.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE WELL EAST OF OUR AREA SUNDAY AS A MID
LEVEL RIDGE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL DRIVE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER OUR AREA DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY. THERE IS A
LINGERING PRESSURE GRADIENT TO START THE MORNING, HOWEVER THIS
WEAKENS FAIRLY QUICKLY AS THE SURFACE HIGH BEGINS TO CREST INTO OUR
REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN MUCH LESS WIND COMPARED TO TODAY.

THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH DRYING IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE PORTIONS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND SUBSIDENCE TO LIMIT ANY STRATOCUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT. AN AREA OF WAA UP THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY HOWEVER WILL
TEND TO DRIVE A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT JUST TO OUR WEST. THE MAIN
PUSH OF MILDER AIR IS FORECAST TO BE FOCUSED MORE TO OUR WEST.
HOWEVER AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS NEARS, SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY
START TO MOVE IN. THIS LOOKS MINIMAL AT THIS POINT, THEREFORE WE
LEANED TOWARD A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE DURING THE DAY.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES, WE MAINLY WENT WITH A MOS BLEND.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NORTHERN TIER OF USA SHOWS A SUCCESSION OF THREE STRENGTHENING
SHORT WAVES IN THE UPPER MIDWEST TENDING TO GETTING SQUASHED AS
THEY MOVE INTO CONFLUENCE ZONE OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA.

THIS MAY EVENTUALLY BODE WELL FOR MUCH NE PA AND NW NJ SNOW/ICE
ENTHUSIASTS MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND.

THE FIRST SHORT WAVE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW VICINITY OF LSUPR SUNDAY
EVENING WEAKENS TO A NOVA SCOTIA PASSAGE TUESDAY MORNING.

THE SECOND SHORT WAVE AND STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE
MIDWEST WEDNESDAY BECOMES A POTENTIALLY BIGGER PLAYER HERE AS IT
EVENTUALLY MOVES OFF THE NJ OR DE COAST THURSDAY.

PLS SEE THE 150 PM PMDEPD FROM HPC ON THIS.

WHILE THE 12Z/25 GEFS CONTS TO INSIST ON A NORTH TRACK...AM WARY
OF WARM SOLNS E OF THE APPALACHIANS WITH A MID LVL /500MB/ CONFLUENCE
ZONE THAT IS IN SE CANADA/NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. AS AN EXAMPLE OF
BUST POTENTIAL...THE 12Z/23 NCEP MOS GUIDANCE FCST FOR PHL ON
12/24 WAS 68-71F. THE EC SCORCHED THE GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS NEAR 50.
THE DAYTIME HIGH WAS 49. THINK THE BUST POTENTIAL MAY AGAIN BE
PRETTY LARGE FOR WED/THU HERE IN OUR FA. AM APPROACHING WARM
SOLNS WITH CAUTION AND COMPLETELY ADOPTING THE MUCH COLDER THAN
NCEP GUIDANCE SOLN FOR WED-FRI.

THE THIRD SHORT WAVE THAT WILL BECOME A PLAYER IS DEPARTING THE
UPPER MIDWEST FRIDAY NIGHT. COULD SEE ICE OR SNOW TO START ON THAT
ONE IN THE POCS AND FAR NW NJ. NOT CONCENTRATING ON THAT LATTER
EVENT. THERE IS MUCH LESS CHC OF THIS INSIDE RUNNER GETTING
SQUASHED SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND BUT WITH RELATIVELY COLD TEMPS TO
START...AT LEAST A LITTLE ICE OR SNOW IS ENVISIONED FRI NIGHT.

TEMPS IN THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL. 12Z/25 NCEP
MODEL GUIDANCE APPEARS MUCH TOO WARM ON DAYTIME MAX`S IN NJ/PA IF
PCPN IS OCCURRING ON WED-THU. USED HPC GUIDANCE TEMPS/WINDS.

THE DAILIES...

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...FAIR WITH A DRY SW FLOW WAA BEHIND THE
DEPARTING MID ATLC COAST SFC HIGH. A CHILLY RADIATIONAL COOLING
START TO MONDAY MORNING WARMS QUICKLY TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
IN THE AFTN WITH GUSTY SW WINDS 20-25 MPH. BLENDED MOS GUIDANCE.
WILL THIS BE A FWX CONCERN FOR AN SPS AFTN? PROBABLY NOT BECAUSE
OF YDYS RAINFALL AND CHILLY TEMPS OF THIS WEEKEND.

MONDAY NIGHT...DRY CFP. BLENDED MOS GUIDANCE.

TUESDAY...DRY HIGH PRES ARRIVES... WITH A TENDENCY OF MORE HIGH PRES
OVER SE CANADA...IE A COLDER WET BULB LYING IN WAIT FOR THE NORTHERN
ZONES.

TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...COMPLEX. A MODEL BATTLE BETWEEN GEFS
AND THE UKMET-GGEM-ECMWF.

A WARM FRONT WILL PRODUCE PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY..SOME OF IT
EXPECTED TO BE SNOW FROM KABE- KSMQ REGION NORTH AND WHEN ALL IS
SAID AND DONE THURSDAY...THIS SEASONABLE WINTER WX EVENT MAY BE
RIVALING ONE OF THE MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENTS OF THIS EASY
GOING WINTER.

THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF WINTER WX IS NOT SET IN STONE BUT WAS THE BEST
ESTIMATE I COULD OFFER AT THIS JUNCTURE FROM MODEL ENSEMBLING AND
REALIZING WE ARE STILL IN MET WINTER.

12Z/25 HPC GUIDANCE TEMPS/WINDS. PTYPE WAS RUN OFF A BLEND OF 12Z
ECMWF/GFS PARTIAL THICKNESSES AND BLV ITS BIAS`D TOO WARM AND TOO
WET.

LOW PROB OF THUNDER DE/MD IN THE MORNING ON THE NOSE OF THE LLJ.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...THE CLOSED LOW ALOFT IN THE MIDWEST HAS
NO WHERE TO GO BUT EAST OR ESE...FORCED BY THE CONFLUENCE ZONE IN
MAINE. THAT MEANS PLENTY OF VORT RIDING OVER WHATEVER THE AXIS OF
LEFTOVER DEEPER MOISTURE. IF THAT MOIST AXIS IS NORTH OF OUR
FA...THEN VERY LITTLE PCPN. BUT IF THE WARM FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPS
EWD FROM NJ OR DE AS PER THE ECMWF FOR WED NIGHT...IT WILL HAVE THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE AXIS SET UP FOR A NEW SFC LOW TO FORM OFF NJ/DE
THURSDAY MORNING RAISING THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE SNOW IN NE PA AND
NW NJ AND SOME COLD DRIZZLE OR A FEW SHOWERS ELSEWHERE S OF KSMQ-
KABE. THERE IS A LOW PROB FOR HAZARDOUS WX ALL THE WAY DOWN TO
PHIL.

12Z/25 HPC GUIDANCE TEMPS/WINDS. THE WIND FCST IS QUESTIONABLE AND
BLV WE WILL NEED MORE NE IN THE NEXT FCST FOR NJ AND SIGNIFICANTLY
STRONGER FOR NNJ.

FRIDAY...DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRES BRIEFLY REASSERTS CONTROL HERE.
HOWEVER THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING...POSSIBLY
SPREADING COLD PRECIPITATION INTO OUR AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. 12Z/25
HPC GUIDANCE WAS USED AND NOT MUCH ENERGY INTO MODIFYING THE DATA.
APPEARS THAT 500MB CONFLUENCE SUPPRESSION IS MUCH LESS OF A RISK.
THERE MIGHT BE A TRIPLE PT OCCLUSION AND PRES FALLS NEAR THE PT
OF OCCLUSION HOLDING LEFTOVER COLD AIR IN LONG ENOUGH /NE SFC
WIND/ FOR ICE AT THE START OVER NE PA AND NW NJ.

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

AN INTENSE STORM IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD AND AWAY FROM OUR AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
INTO OUR AREA DURING SUNDAY. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS
HIGH AND LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHEAST WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE GUSTY
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH ABOUT THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT.
THE PEAK GUSTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 30-35 KNOTS EARLY THIS
EVENING, THEN THESE ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT AS
THE VERTICAL MIXING SHRINKS AND HIGH PRESSURE EDGES CLOSER FROM
THE WEST.

A DECENT AMOUNT OF STRATOCUMULUS AROUND THE REGION THIS EVENING
WILL THIN OUT FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST AS SOME DRYING WORKS IN
AND HIGH PRESSURE GETS A BIT CLOSER DURING THE NIGHT. ANY SNOW
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO RETREAT BACK NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE
EVENING, AND GENERALLY BE NORTH AND WEST FROM ABOUT KTTN TO KILG. A
NARROW BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING, THEREFORE SOME BRIEF BUT GREATLY
REDUCED VISIBILITIES /AND SOME LOWER CEILINGS/ MAY OCCUR. SOME
SHORT-FUSED AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY SNOW
SHOWERS THAT LOOK TO IMPACT ANY LOCAL TERMINAL.

FOR SUNDAY, A CALMER DAY IS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES RIGHT
OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MUCH LESS WIND, THEREFORE A
WESTERLY WIND SHOULD BE ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS BEFORE
WEAKENING MORE BY LATER IN THE DAY. THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH
DRYING IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE TO LIMIT AND
STRATOCUMULUS DEVELOPMENT. THEREFORE, VFR IS EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...VFR. SW GUSTS TO 20 KT POSSIBLE MON AFTN.

WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...MVFR CONDS IN SHOWERS EXCEPT MIXED WINTRY
PCPN POSSIBLE KABE-KSMQ NORTHWARD WHERE CONDS SHOULD DETERIORATE
TO OCNL IFR. LOW PROB THUNDER DE/MD WED MORNING. ENE WINDS IN
COASTAL NE NJ MAY G25 KT ON THURSDAY.

.MARINE...
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT ACROSS THE REGION DUE TO AN
INTENSE STORM IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THROUGH
THE NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE EDGES CLOSER. THE MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT THE 925 MB FLOW INCREASES SOME THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THIS
SHOULD TEND TO KEEP THE LOWER LEVELS MIXED FAIRLY WELL WITH GUSTS TO
NEAR 40 KNOTS. BASED ON THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS, WE WILL CONTINUE THE
GALE WARNING FOR ALL OUR ZONES UNTIL 06Z TONIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL THEN BE NEEDED FOLLOWING THE GALE AS WINDS WILL GUST
TO NEAR 30 KNOTS FOR A TIME AND SEAS WILL HOLD UP ESPECIALLY ON THE
OCEAN. FOR SUNDAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN THEREFORE ANY
LINGERING GUSTY WINDS WILL BE ON A DIMINISHING TREND THROUGH THE
DAY. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW THE SEAS TO SUBSIDE.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT...QUIET WITH LIGHT WIND.

MONDAY...SCA SW GUSTS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTN.

MONDAY NIGHT....NW SCA GUSTS POSSIBLE.

TUESDAY...NO HEADLINE.

WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...SCA POSSIBLE...COMPLEX. UNCERTAINTY WHETHER
A WFRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPS OFF NJ .. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY THE 24TH.
WIND COULD RANGE FROM E TO SW WITH A TENDENCY FOR E IN THE NNJ
WATERS AND SW IN THE SRN WATERS BUT UNCERTAINTY EXISTS.

WHILE UNCERTAIN...ON THE STRENGTH OF RECENT ECWMF PERFORMANCE..
ODDS SEEM TO FAVOR A MOSTLY NE FLOW WITH GUSTS 20-30 KTS AT TIMES
BY WED NIGHT OR THURSDAY MORNING.

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE STRONG WESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO DRIVE THE TIDAL DEPARTURES
DOWN INTO THE NEGATIVE RANGE ESPECIALLY DURING LOW TIDE. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING AT LEAST WITH LEVELS
GETTING RATHER CLOSE TO BLOWOUT CRITERIA /-1.8 FEET MLLW/. FOR THIS
REASON, A LOW WATER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ON DELAWARE BAY
UNTIL 9 PM. THE ADVISORY ON THE ATLANTIC COAST WAS ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE. THE DELAWARE RIVER MAY ALSO APPROACH OR REACH BLOWOUT TIDE
LEVELS, SO AN SPS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE ADJACENT COUNTIES.
WATER LEVELS WILL REMAIN RATHER LOW WELL INTO TONIGHT AND IT
REMAINS POSSIBLE THAT THE SUNDAY MORNING LOW TIDE CYCLE COULD ALSO
SEE NEAR BLOWOUT CONDITIONS. FOR NOW THOUGH, WE WILL SEE HOW THE
DEPARTURES BEHAVE AND THEREFORE NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE
PREVIOUS HEADLINE.

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-
060>062-067>071.
NJ...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NJZ001-007>010-
012>027.
DE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ008-012-015-
019-020.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-431-450>455.
LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-431.

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...GORSE/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE/ROBERTSON
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...GORSE/ROBERTSON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS COLUMBIA SC

921 AM EST FRI FEB 24 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WITH SOME STORMS POSSIBLY BECOMING SEVERE. WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL EXIST THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL. COOLER HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND REMAIN IN CONTROL
THIS WEEKEND.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA AT 14Z MOVING RAPIDLY
NORTHEAST INTO THE MIDLANDS/CSRA. TORNADO WATCH ISSUED FOR
MIDLANDS/CSRA UNTIL 400 PM. EXPECT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT TO
INCREASE DURING THE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MODERATE
INSTABILITY.

LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATES A CONTINUING NORTHWARD SURGE OF LOW
TO MID 60S DEWPOINTS WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES. STRONG MOISTURE FLUX WAS ALSO NOTED ACCOMPANIED BY A 50-60
KNOT LOW LEVEL JET ON THE KCAE VAD WIND PROFILE. LIFTED INDEX
VALUES ARE ALREADY AROUND -2 TO -3 IN THE CSRA WITH SEVERAL
COMPOSITE INDICES ALREADY SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IF
THEY WERE PRESENT. 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES ARE IN EXCESS OF 60 KNOTS
AND WILL INCREASE FURTHER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. REASONABLE
CONFIDENCE THAT SEVERE WEATHER WILL OCCUR SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS SUPPORTED BY SEVERAL HI-RES WRF MODELS INDICATING A
LINE OF CONVECTION...OR LINE SEGMENTS...DEVELOPING THIS MORNING
JUST AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND STRENGTHENING
THE STORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THEY MOVE INTO THE FORECAST
AREA LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

SPC HAS OUTLOOKED THE FORECAST AREA IN A SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK
OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS WITH A
CHANCE OF TORNADOES AS WELL. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THIS COULD BE
A SIGNIFICANT DAMAGING WIND EVENT AND WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.
DESPITE THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK...WINDS WILL BE STRONG TODAY
DUE TO MIXING DOWN OF THE VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS AND
THEREFORE WILL BE ISSUING A LAKE WIND ADVISORY. THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW WIND GUSTS TO APPROACH THE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 40
KNOTS BUT AM NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ISSUE THE WIND ADVISORY.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE TRICKY AS STRONG GRADIENT WINDS
OVERNIGHT HAVE KEPT THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED AND VERY WARM AND
CLOUDS WILL HAVE SOME IMPACT ON THE AMOUNT OF INSOLATION THAT CAN
TAKE PLACE. HAVE DECIDED TO BUMP UP MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY THOUGH
DUE TO THE WARM START AND ANY AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE WOULD BE ENOUGH
TO PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S.

THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE AREA BY 00Z WITH STORMS PUSHING
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BEING REPLACED BY CLEARING SKIES AND
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. WINDS WILL STAY UP THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RESULT FROM THE AMOUNT OF COLD ADVECTION THAT
CAN TAKE PLACE. FORECAST LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL IN THE UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S.

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH A DRY
AIRMASS IN PLACE PROVIDING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 WITH A COOLER AIRMASS IN PLACE.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S SATURDAY
NIGHT. SUNDAY FEATURES SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING OVER THE
FORECAST AREA WHILE AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL PASS BY TO THE
SOUTH. MODEL DATA SUGGESTS THAT THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA IN CASE THIS DISTURBANCE ENDS UP
SHIFTING A BIT FURTHER NORTH. A BLANKET OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL HAVE
AN IMPACT ON THE MAX TEMPERATURES SUNDAY ALONG WITH A PERSISTENT
NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND...RESULTING IN HIGHS IN THE MID
50S. OVERNIGHT LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE WARMER THAN SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH CLOUD COVER AND AIRMASS MODIFICATION.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE MADE DURING THIS PERIOD. MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING AND INTENSITY...HOWEVER OVERALL PATTERN IS VERY SIMILAR.
WEAK DISTURBANCE ALONG WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF WILL BEGIN TO MOVE NORTHWARD SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS DEEPENS AND MOVES EASTWARD. THIS
WILL PUSH A WEAK WARM FRONT THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
ALONG WITH DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL MONDAY THEN ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MOISTURE TRANSPORT CONTINUES INTO THE REGION. 4-5 KFT WINDS
SOUTHWEST 40-50 KNOTS THIS MORNING INCREASE TO 60-65 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON. SPC HAS SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK TODAY ENTIRE CWA. RUC MODEL BY
15Z GIVES LI=-6, CAPE=1800 J/KG, SWEAT>325, TT>50, PW 1.4-1.5
INCHES. AND SHOULD BECOME MORE UNSTABLE AHEAD OF COLD FRONT DURING
THE AFTERNOON WITH LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING. THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT DURING THE
EARLY AND MIDDLE PART OF THE AFTERNOON. BOWING ECHOES OR A LEWP OR
POSSIBLY A SQUALL LINE COULD MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA.
GENERALLY, MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
MVFR CIGS WITH POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST ENTIRE AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL
MIXING COULD BRING THE 60-65 KNOT WINDS TO THE SURFACE. AFTER
ABOUT 22Z...THE COLD FRONT SHOULD HAVE MOVED EAST TAKING THE
WEATHER WITH IT AND CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE EXCEPT FOR
GUSTY SURFACE WINDS 15-25 KNOTS IN A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH
THE SYSTEM. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR 02Z-04Z TIME FRAME THIS EVENING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT.

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR SCZ015-016-018-
020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR GAZ040-063>065-
077.
&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...07

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS COLUMBIA SC

627 AM EST FRI FEB 24 2012

.SYNOPSIS...

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WITH SOME STORMS POSSIBLY BECOMING SEVERE. WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL EXIST THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL. COOLER HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND REMAIN IN CONTROL
THIS WEEKEND.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

MAIN CONCERN IN THE NEAR TERM IS POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANYING AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. LATEST
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS
STATES WITH ONGOING CONVECTION OCCURRING OVER THE EASTERN OHIO
VALLEY.

SPC HAS OUTLOOKED THE FORECAST AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS WITH A CHANCE OF
TORNADOES AS WELL. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THIS COULD BE A
SIGNIFICANT DAMAGING WIND EVENT AND WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.
DESPITE THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK...WINDS WILL BE STRONG TODAY
DUE TO MIXING DOWN OF THE VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS AND
THEREFORE WILL BE ISSUING A LAKE WIND ADVISORY. THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW WIND GUSTS TO APPROACH THE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 40
KNOTS BUT AM NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ISSUE THE WIND ADVISORY.

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH A DRY
AIRMASS IN PLACE PROVIDING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 WITH A COOLER AIRMASS IN PLACE.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S SATURDAY
NIGHT. SUNDAY FEATURES SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING OVER THE
FORECAST AREA WHILE AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL PASS BY TO THE
SOUTH. MODEL DATA SUGGESTS THAT THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA IN CASE THIS DISTURBANCE ENDS UP
SHIFTING A BIT FURTHER NORTH. A BLANKET OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL HAVE
AN IMPACT ON THE MAX TEMPERATURES SUNDAY ALONG WITH A PERSISTENT
NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND...RESULTING IN HIGHS IN THE MID
50S. OVERNIGHT LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE WARMER THAN SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH CLOUD COVER AND AIRMASS MODIFICATION.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

LITTLE CHANGE MADE DURING THIS PERIOD. MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING AND INTENSITY...HOWEVER OVERALL PATTERN IS VERY SIMILAR.
WEAK DISTURBANCE ALONG WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF WILL BEGIN TO MOVE NORTHWARD SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS DEEPENS AND MOVES EASTWARD. THIS
WILL PUSH A WEAK WARM FRONT THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
ALONG WITH DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL MONDAY THEN ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

MOISTURE TRANSPORT CONTINUES INTO THE REGION. 4-5 KFT WINDS
SOUTHWEST 40-50 KNOTS THIS MORNING INCREASE TO 60-65 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON. SPC HAS SLIGHT RISK TODAY ENTIRE CWA. RUC MODEL BY 15Z
GIVES LI=-6, CAPE=1800 J/KG, SWEAT>325, TT>50, PW 1.4-1.5 INCHES.
AND SHOULD BECOME MORE UNSTABLE AHEAD OF COLD FRONT DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT DURING THE EARLY
AND MIDDLE PART OF THE AFTERNOON. BOWING ECHOES OR A LEWP OR
POSSIBLY A SQUALL LINE COULD MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA.
GENERALLY, MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
MVFR CIGS WITH POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST ENTIRE AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL MIXING COULD
BRING THE 60-65 KNOT WINDS TO THE SURFACE. AFTER ABOUT 22Z...THE
COLD FRONT SHOULD HAVE MOVED EAST TAKING THE WEATHER WITH IT AND
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE EXCEPT FOR GUSTY SURFACE WINDS
15-25 KNOTS IN A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE SYSTEM. SKIES
SHOULD CLEAR 02Z-04Z TIME FRAME THIS EVENING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT.

SYNOPSIS...HC
NEAR TERM...HC
SHORT TERM...HC
LONG TERM...HC
AVIATION...TTH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LINCOLN IL

1120 AM CST FRI FEB 24 2012

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1012 AM CST FRI FEB 24 2012

MAIN SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM NORTHEAST INDIANA THROUGH
WESTERN KENTUCKY LATE THIS MORNING...WHILE UPPER TROUGH LINGERS ABOUT
100 MILES WEST OF THERE. THERE WAS ABOUT 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE
FAR NORTHERN CWA FROM EARLIER...BUT MOST AREAS SOUTH OF THERE HAVE
SEEN THE SNOW MELTING AS IT HITS THE GROUND. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY
SHOWING PRECIPITATION IS NOW MORE SHOWERY...MOSTLY SNOW AT THE
MOMENT...BUT IN THE FORM OF RAIN SOUTH OF I-70. THE LATEST HRRR IS
MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN OTHER HIGH-RESOLUTION AND SYNOPTIC MODELS IN
LINGERING THE SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY...BUT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
NEARBY AND VERY COLD AIR ALOFT...FEEL THAT 30 POPS ARE STILL
WARRANTED THIS AFTERNOON.

HAVE SENT SOME UPDATED ZONES/GRIDS DUE TO THE LATEST PRECIPITATION
TRENDS. DID MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TEMPERATURES...
WHICH LARGELY DID NOT AFFECT THE WORDED FORECASTS.

GEELHART

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1120 AM CST FRI FEB 24 2012

MVFR CEILINGS TO CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
SHOULD SEE AN UPWARD TREND IN CEILINGS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBS CURRENTLY SHOWING
CEILINGS RISING ABOVE 3000 FEET IN SOUTHEAST IOWA AND NORTHERN
MISSOURI...ADVANCING SOUTHEAST. HAVE BROUGHT KSPI/KDEC/KPIA INTO
VFR RANGE BY AROUND SUNSET...BUT HAVE LINGERED MVFR CONDITIONS
ELSEWHERE AS AN UPPER IMPULSE CURRENTLY IN MINNESOTA DROPS
SOUTHEAST. GUSTIEST WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH ABOUT 22-23Z WITH WINDS
DIMINISHING A BIT AFTERWARD...BUT THEY WILL STILL STAY ABOVE 10
KNOTS OVERNIGHT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED IMPULSE MOVES THROUGH. WHILE
SOME PERIODIC BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL OCCUR AT TIMES...MORE
SUSTAINED CLEARING SHOULD TAKE PLACE LATE SATURDAY MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST OUT OF THE PLAINS.

GEELHART

.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 255 AM CST FRI FEB 24 2012

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY

BAND OF DEFORMATION ZONE SNOW CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM THE CHICAGO
METRO AREA SOUTHWESTWARD TO MACOMB WILL GRADUALLY ROTATE E/NE AND
DISSIPATE AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. BASED ON LATEST RADAR MOSAIC
AS WELL AS 00Z HIGH-RES MODELS...IT APPEARS MOST OF THE STEADY
LIGHT SNOW WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF A RUSHVILLE TO
BLOOMINGTON-NORMAL LINE THROUGH MIDDAY. AS SUCH...HAVE GONE WITH
CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THIS AREA THROUGH THE MORNING. ACCUMULATIONS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT...WITH PERHAPS AS MUCH AS 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS
FAR NORTHERN SECTIONS OF KNOX AND STARK COUNTIES. FURTHER
SOUTH...ANY PRECIP THAT OCCURS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER AND MORE SHOWERY IN
NATURE. HAVE THEREFORE ONLY INCLUDED CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE. WITH
VERY COLD 500MB TEMPS OF AROUND -36C...MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL BE
IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW-SHOWERS TODAY...HOWEVER SURFACE HIGH
TEMPS REACHING THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST KILX
CWA WILL SUPPORT RAIN ALONG/SOUTH OF I-70. ASIDE FROM THE INTERMITTENT
LIGHT PRECIP...THE MAIN STORY TODAY WILL BE THE STRONG WESTERLY
WINDS. AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS TO THE EAST...TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH
RANGE...WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 35 MPH AT TIMES.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO
EAST TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY DROP INTO THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER 20S...BUT MAY SINK INTO THE UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHWEST CWA WHERE A LIGHT SNOW COVER WILL LIKELY EXIST. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD ON SATURDAY...ENSURING A MOSTLY SUNNY
AND COOL DAY WITH SEASONABLE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S.

NEXT WEATHER-MAKER WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT CENTRAL ILLINOIS BY
SUNDAY...AS UPPER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE TRACK ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS
GUSTING TO BETWEEN 30 AND 35 MPH. WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE AND STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW...AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS WILL SOAR INTO THE 50S.
TRAILING COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO SWING THROUGH THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BLOCK
NORTHWARD TRANSPORT OF GULF MOISTURE. AS A RESULT...EXPECT A DRY
FROPA.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE EXTENDED...WITH THE NEXT
IN A SERIES OF UPPER WAVES APPROACHING BY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. 00Z
24 FEB GFS/ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT CONCERNING TRACK/TIMING OF THIS
SYSTEM...WITH WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS AND PRECIP SPREADING INTO
ILLINOIS FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY. ATMOSPHERE WILL BE WARM ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT ALL RAIN...AS HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB WELL
INTO THE 40S. NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH AND DEEPENING SURFACE
LOW WILL LIFT FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
BY EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH
CENTRAL ILLINOIS. AMPLE DEEP MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM COUPLED
WITH POWERFUL UPPER DYNAMICS WILL BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. ONCE FRONT
PASSES...A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...BEFORE
COOLER/DRIER WEATHER ARRIVES BY THURSDAY.

BARNES

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LINCOLN IL

1015 AM CST FRI FEB 24 2012

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1012 AM CST FRI FEB 24 2012

MAIN SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM NORTHEEAST INDIANA THROUGH
WESTERN KENTUCKY LATE THIS MORNING...WHILE UPPER TROUGH LINGERS ABOUT
100 MILES WEST OF THERE. THERE WAS ABOUT 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE
FAR NORTHERN CWA FROM EARLIER...BUT MOST AREAS SOUTH OF THERE HAVE
SEEN THE SNOW MELTING AS IT HITS THE GROUND. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY
SHOWING PRECIPITATION IS NOW MORE SHOWERY...MOSTLY SNOW AT THE
MOMENT...BUT IN THE FORM OF RAIN SOUTH OF I-70. THE LATEST HRRR IS
MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN OTHER HIGH-RESOLUTION AND SYNOPTIC MODELS IN
LINGERING THE SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY...BUT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
NEARBY AND VERY COLD AIR ALOFT...FEEL THAT 30 POPS ARE STILL
WARRANTED THIS AFTERNOON.

HAVE SENT SOME UPDATED ZONES/GRIDS DUE TO THE LATEST PRECIPITATION
TRENDS. DID MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TEMPERATURES...
WHICH LARGELY DID NOT AFFECT THE WORDED FORECASTS.

GEELHART

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 548 AM CST FRI FEB 24 2012...FOR THE 12Z TAFS

LIGHT SNOW WILL HIT PIA AND BMI THE HARDEST...WITH MVFR VIS IN
SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING. SO TRAVEL SURFACES THERE WILL HAVE THE
BEST CHANCES OF BECOMING SLIPPERY FROM SNOW. IFR CLOUD HEIGHTS
WILL LIKELY REMAIN THROUGH AROUND 15Z AT PIA AND POSSIBLY AN HOUR
OR TWO LONGER AT BMI.

SNOWFALL AND VIS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 15Z...WITH ONLY LIGHT
SNOW OR FLURRIES LINGERING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE THE OTHER MAJOR WEATHER FEATURE
TODAY. WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 30-35KT ARE LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
WIND GUSTS WILL BECOME LESS STRONG TONIGHT...BUT SUSTAINED WINDS
MAY REMAIN 15-20 KT.

MVFR CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER OVERNIGHT. SOME CLEARING WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN THE WEST FOR PIA/SPI LATER TONIGHT. HOWEVER...
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE EXTENT OF ANY CLEARING...SO IT WAS LEFT
OUT OF THIS TAF ISSUANCE.

SHIMON

.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 255 AM CST FRI FEB 24 2012

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

BARNES

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

230 AM CST FRI FEB 24 2012

.DISCUSSION...
901 PM CST

NO CHANGES TO GOING ADVISORY HEADLINES THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...
FORECAST REMAINS QUITE COMPLEX WITH RESPECT TO SNOW AMOUNTS AND
PRECIP TYPES THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS.

EVENING VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING
EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS IA/MO. MAIN SFC LOW WAS OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA
WITH TROUGH TRAILING BACK THROUGH WESTERN IL/SOUTHERN IA. INITIAL
PUSH OF WARM ADVECTION RAIN/SNOW HAD GENERALLY LIFTED TO/NORTH OF
THE WI BORDER DURING THE EVENING HOURS...WHILE FARTHER TO THE WEST
REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC DEPICTED EXTENSION OF BROAD DEVELOPING
DEFORMATION BAND FROM SOUTHWEST IA INTO SOUTHERN WI. EVIDENCE OF
FRONTOGENETICALLY FORCED ENHANCED PRECIPITATION WAS NOTED ACROSS FAR
EASTERN IA...JUST NORTH OF THE QUAD CITIES.

MUCH OF THE CWA HAS SEEN A LULL IN MORE ORGANIZED MEASURABLE PRECIP
DURING THE EVENING HOURS. 22-23Z RUNS OF THE HRRR SEEM TO HAVE A
VERY GOOD HANDLE ON TRENDS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MID-EVENING...
AND WOULD SUGGEST DEFORMATION PRECIP AXIS WILL GRADUALLY TRANSLATE
EAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING HOURS.
WHILE THE CURRENT BAND NEAR DVN IS IMPRESSIVE LOOKING...HIGH RES
SHORT TERM MODEL TRENDS WOULD SUGGEST THIS WOULD WEAKEN AND BECOME
SOMEWHAT LESS FOCUS AS IT TRANSLATES EASTWARD...THOUGH ENTIRE
DEFORMATION PRECIP AREA WILL LIKELY BECOME A BIT BETTER ORGANIZED.

WITH LESS PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE EARLY/MID EVENING HORUS...HAVE ADJUSTED SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS DOWN SOMEWHAT FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...GENERALLY 2-6 INCHES
WITH THE HEAVIER AMOUNTS GENERALLY ALONG/NORTH OF INTERSTATE 88 IN
NORTHERN/NORTHEAST IL. SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS STILL NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR MESOSCALE BANDING...AND POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION...BUT OVERALL CONFIDENCE REMAINS FAIRLY LOW EVEN AT THIS
RELATIVELY CLOSE-IN TIME.

SOUTH OF ROUGHLY A DVN-ORD LINE HOWEVER...THE HRRR WOULD INDICATE
MORE CONVECTIVE SHOWERY TYPE PRECIP...WHICH HAS BEEN OCCURRING AS A
MIX OF RAIN/SNOW/GRAUPEL PER REPORTS IN UPSTREAM AREAS. THIS APPEARS
QUITE REASONABLE AS AREA OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...IN EXCESS
OF 7 DEG/KM PER RUC/SPC MESOANALYSIS...WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWFA OVERNIGHT. HAVE CONTINUED TO
INDICATE SHOWERS/CHANCE THUNDER CHANGING TO SNOW DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS QUICKLY DECREASING THROUGH
THE I-80 CORRIDOR SOUTHWARD.

RATZER

//PREV DISCUSSION...
322 PM CST

THE WINTER SYSTEM IS STILL OFFERING PLENTY OF COMPLEXITIES INTO
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING...WITH TRANSITION TIME TO SNOW AND
TOTAL DURATION OF SNOW REMAINING THE MAIN CHALLENGES WITH THE
FORECAST.

WARM AIR ADVECTION DRIVEN PRECIPITATION...AT TIMES LARGE
SNOWFLAKES UNDER THE HIGHEST REFLECTIVITY...HAS LIFTED GRADUALLY
NORTH ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS HAS BEEN ALONG A
TIGHTENING MID-LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT WHICH SHOULD NOT MOVE MUCH
FURTHER NORTH AT ALL INTO TONIGHT. THIS OFFERS A LIKELY
INDICATION ON WHERE THE BANDED POTENTIAL AND HEAVIER PRECIPITATION
WILL BE TONIGHT AS THE UPPER WAVE APPROACHES. AT THE SURFACE
...LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS HAVE DROPPED THIS
AFTERNOON UNDER PRECIP AND GRADUALLY BACKING WINDS. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BASICALLY NOT CLIMB ANYMORE WITH THE MAIN WARM FRONT WELL
TO THE SOUTH JUST NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. PER VISIBLE
SATELLITE...MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ARE EVIDENT LIFTING NORTH OF
THIS FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL IL AND IN...EVEN WITH A POSSIBLE
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EVEN ELEVATED STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THAT AREA AND POTENTIALLY CLIP THE
SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA THIS EVE.

THE MAIN UPPER SYSTEM CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE ACROSS THE MISSOURI
RIVER VALLEY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE DIGGING 170 KT UPPER LEVEL
JET. AS THIS TRANSLATES EAST...LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL OVERRIDE
THE EXISTING MID-LEVEL BOUNDARY AND LIKELY LEAD TO A RE-
ENHANCEMENT OF PRECIP EARLY THIS EVENING. STRENGTHENING SYSTEM
MOISTURE RETURN ON A LOW-LEVEL JET...ALMOST MORE OF A LOW LEVEL
/900-750MB/ TROWAL...WILL WRAP INTO THE AREA AS WELL. THE LAPSE
RATES WILL STEEPEN ALOFT THROUGH THE DIFFERENTIAL TEMPERATURE
ADVECTION AND SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT HEAVIER PRECIP RATES
AND MAXIMIZING THE INITIAL HIGH LOW LEVEL MIXING RATIOS OF 3 TO 4
G/KG. THERE REMAINS THAT CHANCE FOR THUNDER WITH THE
INSTABILITY...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO TEMPORARY VERY HEAVY PRECIP
RATES.

OVERALL THE INCREASING SUPPORT FOR MORE STEADY AND WIDESPREAD
PRECIP WILL SUPPORT DYNAMIC COOLING. THAT COUPLED WITH THE COOLING
FROM THE DIURNAL TREND AND SLIGHT COOL ADVECTION WILL WARRANT RAIN
CHANGING TO A MORE PREVALENT SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
ADVISORY AREA THIS EVENING...MAINLY PRIOR TO 10 PM. ALREADY
THROUGH BRIGHT BANDING AND DUAL-POL PRODUCTS THE MELTING LAYER IS
NOT FAR ALOFT AT ALL ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. THE TIMING OF
CHANGEOVER WILL DIRECTLY IMPACT HOW MUCH SNOW...AS SOME OF THE
HEAVIER RATES ARE FAVORED IN THE HOURS IMMEDIATELY AFTER CHANGE
OVER DUE TO MID-LEVEL FGEN AND INSTABILITY. THERE SHOULD BE A
TIGHT GRADIENT IN SNOWFALL THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH AREAS ALONG
AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 NOT EXPECTED TO SEE ANY ACCUMULATION
BASICALLY...AND THAT DEMARCATION MAY EVEN BE FURTHER NORTH TOWARDS
THE U.S. HIGHWAY 34. HAVE GUIDED ON QPF CLOSE TO THE 12Z/18Z NAM
AND 09Z SREF...WITH RATIOS ADJUSTED QUITE LOW AND GRADUALLY
INCREASING TOWARDS 15 TO 1 TOWARDS ROCKFORD WHERE DENDRITIC GROWTH
LAYER IS DEEPER.

BY LATE EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT...THE SYSTEM 850 AND 700 MB LOWS
WILL PASS OVER /OR AT THEIR CLOSEST POINT TO/ THE AREA.
DEFORMATION IS INDICATED BY ALL GUIDANCE IN THIS TIME. PRECIP TYPE
WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW OVER ALMOST THE ENTIRE AREA...BUT THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY/NEGATIVE EPV WILL GRADUALLY BE
WANING. THE TREND IN THE EC AND NAM/SREF HAS BEEN SLOWER WITH
REMOVING THE SYSTEM...WITH ALMOST A SECONDARY FLARE UP IN THE
MORNING AS THE POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST. SO HAVE
HELD ON TO ACCUMULATING SNOW LONGER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CHICAGO
AND NORTHWEST IN. EVEN SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT IS POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. AMOUNTS AFTER DAYBREAK OF AROUND ONE
INCH ARE EXPECTED IN FAR NORTHEAST IL INTO NORTHWEST IN...WHERE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS MAY OCCUR.

STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING ARE 4 TO
7 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE ADVISORY AREA...OUTSIDE OF THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES /I-80 CORRIDOR/ WHICH HAVE QUITE A TIGHT
GRADIENT IN TOTAL SNOWFALL FORECAST. ANY LOCATIONS THAT SEE SOME
OF THE PERSISTENT HEAVIER RATES...OR THUNDER SNOW...WILL END UP
HAVING HIGHER AMOUNTS ESPECIALLY DURING THIS EVENING. A SHORT FUSE
WINTER STORM WARNING MAY BE NEEDED FOR A WHILE IF THE BANDING IS A
PARTICULARLY STRONG AND STAGNANT SIGNATURE. WITH THE TIMING OF THE
HEAVIEST SNOW BEING AT THE TAIL END AND AFTER THE EVENING RUSH
HOUR...AND RATES GRADUALLY DIMINISHING DURING THE DAYBREAK
TIME...PUBLIC IMPACTS WOULD SEEM TO BE SLIGHTLY LOWER. SO CONTINUE
TO GO WITH THE ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

MTF

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

320 PM...LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY TO STILL BE ONGOING
FRIDAY EVENING AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST AND COLDER AIR ADVECTS
ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
ADDITIONAL...THOUGH MINOR ACCUMULATION FRIDAY EVENING ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHEAST IL INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA. WITH AT LEAST SOME
PARTIAL CLEARING IN ADDITION TO THE COLD AIR ADVECTION...EXPECT
TEMPS TO DIP INTO THE TEENS ACROSS NORTHWEST IL AND GIVEN THE
EXPECTED SNOWFALL TONIGHT...TEMPS COULD DROP EVEN FURTHER WITH
THE FRESH SNOWPACK.

THE WEEKEND IS LOOKING FAIRLY QUIET AS A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY...SHIFTING EAST
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. DESPITE SUNSHINE...AIRMASS REMAINS
FAIRLY COLD SATURDAY COMBINED WITH THE SNOWPACK...HIGHS MAY ONLY
REACH LOW/MID 30S. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES...SHOULD SEE
A QUICK DROP IN TEMPS SATURDAY EVENING BUT WITH STRONG WARMING
ALOFT OVERNIGHT...TEMPS LIKELY TO BECOME STEADY OR EVEN BEGIN
RISING A FEW DEGREES OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM THEN MOVES EAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
NORTHERN LAKES SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AND IT APPEARS THE BULK OF
THE PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWA BUT AS A
WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...THERE COULD BE
A PASSING SNOW OR RAIN SHOWER SUNDAY NIGHT AND HAVE MAINTAINED LOW
CHANCE POPS DURING THIS TIME. WITH STRONG WARMING CONTINUING SUNDAY
AHEAD OF THIS STORM SYSTEM...DEWPOINTS RECOVER INTO THE LOWER 30S
AND DESPITE THE SNOWPACK...TEMPS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO WARM INTO
THE 40S...PERHAPS EVEN WARMER SOUTH OF WHEREVER THE MORE
SIGNIFICANT SNOW PACK ENDS UP FALLING OVER THE NEXT DAY.

THEN COMES NEXT WEEK AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER SIMILAR STORM
TO THE ONE TO AFFECT THE AREA TONIGHT. MODELS DIFFER ON THE OVERALL
TIMING/PROGRESSION OF THIS STORM SYSTEM WITH THE ECMWF MUCH DEEPER
AND SLOWER WITH THE LOW NOT MOVING EAST ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH IS MUCH SLOWER THAN THE WEAKER/FASTER
GFS. APPEARS LOW LEVELS WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL RAIN
UNTIL THE LOW MOVES EAST WHEN PRECIP COULD QUICKLY CHANGE TO SNOW
BEFORE ENDING. TOO FAR OUT IN TIME FOR SPECIFICS AND ALSO KEPT
MENTION OF RAIN OR SNOW OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN CWA. CMS

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 08Z...

* -RAPLSN CHANGING TO -SN AT MDW NEXT 1-2 HRS.

* PERIOD OF MOST INTENSE SNOWFALL EXPECTED 10/11Z UNTIL APPROX
13/14Z THEN DECREASING IN INTENSITY...VSBY TO AROUND 1/2SM
POSSIBLE AT TIMES.

* IFR/LIFR CIGS PERSIST THROUGH MID MORNING THEN IMPROVE AND
BECOME MORE VARIABLE LATE MORNING.

* NE WINDS TURNING NORTH THEN NORTHWEST THROUGH MIDDAY WITH GUSTS
INCREASING INTO THE MID 20S KT.

* ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE MID/LATE AFTERNOON
WITH IFR VSBY POSSIBLE.

MDB

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 08Z...

SNOW BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD IN COVERAGE ACROSS CENTRAL AND
WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CHI METRO AS A MID LEVEL SPEED MAX ARRIVES
FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS PIVOTING
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. HEAVIEST BAND OF SNOW EXTENDS FROM
NEAR KJVL TO KDVN TO KMPZ AND CONTINUES TO SWING EASTWARD. LATEST
TRENDS SUPPORT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER ARRIVAL WITH IT REACHING THE CHI
METRO TERMINALS TOWARD 10/11Z BUT CLEARING RFD IN THE 12/13Z OR SO
TIME FRAME. TIMING MAY NEED TO BE SLOWED SLIGHTLY. UNTIL
THE...EXPECT VARIABLE VSBY CONDS IN -SN WITH MIXED PRECIP CHANGING
TO SNOW AT MDW IN THE NEXT 1-2 HRS. ONE OTHER CONCERN IS POTENTIAL
FOR A VERY SHORT WINDOW OF LAKE ENHANCEMENT OF THE MAIN BAND
TOWARD DAYBREAK AS AIR ALOFT BECOMES COLD ENOUGH FOR A LAKE
RESPONSE AND WINDS REMAIN JUST EAST OF NORTH. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN
EYE ON THIS AS IT MAY RESULT IN A SHORT PERIOD OF MORE INTENSE
SNOWFALL AND 1/4SM VSBY IN THE CHI METRO BUT THIS LOOKS TO BE A
LOW CHANCE SCENARIO WITH MARGINAL PARAMETERS AND WOULD BE VERY
SHORT LIVED BEFORE WINDS TURN JUST WEST OF NORTH.

MDB

FROM 06Z...

BAND OF MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY SNOW HAS BECOME FAIRLY
WELL SITUATED FROM S WI/FAR N IL WSW INTO SOUTHERN IA. TO THE
SOUTH OF THIS BAND WDLY SCTD RAIN/SNOW/GRAUPEL SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
COMMON WITH SOME DZ/BR IN BETWEEN THE SHOWERS. AS UPPER LOW OVER
IA PIVOTS EASTWARD LOOK FOR BAND OF MOD-HEAVY SNOW TO MIGRATE
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE CHGO METRO TERMINALS. PRESENCE OF STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND FAIRLY STRONG ASCENT CERTAINLY SUGGEST SOME
POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVIER ELEMENTS AND POSSIBLY EVEN A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER.

ORGANIZED SYSTEM SNOW SHOULD PULL OUT FRIDAY MORNING WITH CLOUDY
AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS IN ITS WAKE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
NOT ONLY STRONG/GUSTY WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 25-30KT PROBABLE.
ALSO...VERY STEEP LOW AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH FAIRLY HIGH
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE MEANS IT WILL TAKE RELATIVELY LITTLE TO
KICK OF SOME FRISKY SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON FRIDAY.
MODELS DO SUGGEST A WEAK WAVE WILL ROTATE SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA
LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND HAVE KEYED IN ON THAT TIMING FOR A
PROB30 OF SHSN.

IZZI

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 08Z...

* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MIXED PRECIP TURNING TO SNOW AT MDW.

* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN HEAVIEST SNOW OCCURRING 10/11Z UNTIL
APPROX 13/14Z...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON VSBY TO AROUND 1/2SM AT TIMES.

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IFR/LIFR CIGS CONTINUING THROUGH MID MORNING
WITH UPWARD TREND INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN
SPECIFIC TIMING.

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND TRENDS.

* LOW-MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN SHSN THREAT THIS AFTERNOON.

MDB

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 08Z...

SATURDAY...VFR.

SUNDAY...VFR AND WINDY FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST.

MONDAY...VFR.

TUESDAY...CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW...POSSIBLE MVFR.

WEDNESDAY...CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW...POSSIBLE MVFR.

MDB

.MARINE...
230 AM CST

LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...THE SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN TO NEAR 29.0
INCHES. OVERALL...THIS WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL SHIFT FROM
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS CURRENTLY TO NORTH THIS MORNING...THEN TO
NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
IN THE 20 KT TO 30 KT RANGE. HOWEVER...BY THIS EVENING DECENT HEIGHT
RISES OCCURRING BEHIND THE EXITING LOW MAY ALLOW THE WINDS TO
INCREASE A BIT. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF A SHORT PERIOD OF SOME
LOW END GALE FORCE GUSTS THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...DUE TO THE SHORT DURATION I AM NOT PLANNING ANY HEADLINES
FOR GALES...I WILL ONLY MENTION AS SOME OCCASIONAL GALE FORCE GUSTS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN DURING THE DAY
ON SATURDAY ALLOWING THE WINDS TO EASE FOR A PERIOD. THIS WILL BE
SHORT LIVED...HOWEVER...AS ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TAKES SHAPE
ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES AND MOVES EAST ACROSS THE MID MISSOURI
VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
ON SUNDAY. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO BE IN A WEAKENING STAGE AS IT
APPROACHES LAKE MICHIGAN. HOWEVER...IN SPITE OF THIS...IT APPEARS
THAT A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SET UP AHEAD OF THIS LOW AS IT
INTERACTS WITH A POTENT SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.
THEREFORE...STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW LOOKS TO SET UP ACROSS LAKE
MICHIGAN LATE ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS STRONG PRESSURE FALLS
AHEAD OF THE LOW OVERSPREAD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. IT STILL APPEARS
THAT GALE FORCE WINDS WILL BE HIGHLY PROBABLE DURING THIS
PERIOD...SO I WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF GALES. THE SURFACE LOW
APPEARS THAT IT WILL TRACK JUST NORTH OF LAKE MICHIGAN LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS TRACK WILL RESULT IN THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL ZONE PUSHING
ACROSS THE LAKE SOMETIME SUNDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING THE WINDS TO SWITCH
OUT OF THE WEST SOUTHWEST. DUE TO THE FACT THE LOW WILL LIKELY BE
WEAKENING AS IT MOVES EAST OF THE LAKE ON MONDAY...THE POTENTIAL FOR
WESTERLY GALE FORCE WINDS ON MONDAY LOOKS LOW.

YET ANOTHER POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOOKS TO AFFECT THE GREAT
LAKES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM ALSO HAS THE POTENTIAL
TO PRODUCE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 KT.

KJB

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...ILZ006-ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ022 UNTIL NOON
FRIDAY.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ008-ILZ010-
ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ019-ILZ020 UNTIL 9 AM FRIDAY.

IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002 UNTIL NOON FRIDAY.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 4 PM FRIDAY.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 10 PM SATURDAY.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

222 AM CST FRI FEB 24 2012

.DISCUSSION...
901 PM CST

NO CHANGES TO GOING ADVISORY HEADLINES THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...
FORECAST REMAINS QUITE COMPLEX WITH RESPECT TO SNOW AMOUNTS AND
PRECIP TYPES THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS.

RATZER

//PREV DISCUSSION...
322 PM CST

THE WINTER SYSTEM IS STILL OFFERING PLENTY OF COMPLEXITIES INTO
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING...WITH TRANSITION TIME TO SNOW AND
TOTAL DURATION OF SNOW REMAINING THE MAIN CHALLENGES WITH THE
FORECAST.

MTF

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 08Z...

* -RAPLSN CHANGING TO -SN AT MDW NEXT 1-2 HRS.

* PERIOD OF MOST INTENSE SNOWFALL EXPECTED 10/11Z UNTIL APPROX
13/14Z THEN DECREASING IN INTENSITY...VSBY TO AROUND 1/2SM
POSSIBLE AT TIMES.

* IFR/LIFR CIGS PERSIST THROUGH MID MORNING THEN IMPROVE AND
BECOME MORE VARIABLE LATE MORNING.

* NE WINDS TURNING NORTH THEN NORTHWEST THROUGH MIDDAY WITH GUSTS
INCREASING INTO THE MID 20S KT.

* ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE MID/LATE AFTERNOON
WITH IFR VSBY POSSIBLE.

MDB

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 08Z...

MDB

FROM 06Z...

IZZI

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 08Z...

* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MIXED PRECIP TURNING TO SNOW AT MDW.

* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN HEAVIEST SNOW OCCURRING 10/11Z UNTIL
APPROX 13/14Z...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON VSBY TO AROUND 1/2SM AT TIMES.

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IFR/LIFR CIGS CONTINUING THROUGH MID MORNING
WITH UPWARD TREND INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN
SPECIFIC TIMING.

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND TRENDS.

* LOW-MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN SHSN THREAT THIS AFTERNOON.

MDB

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 08Z...

SATURDAY...VFR.

SUNDAY...VFR AND WINDY FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST.

MONDAY...VFR.

TUESDAY...CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW...POSSIBLE MVFR.

WEDNESDAY...CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW...POSSIBLE MVFR.

MDB

.MARINE...
116 PM CST

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES FROM SOUTHERN MISSOURI THIS
AFTERNOON TO THE EASTERN LAKES FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BACK
FROM EAST TO NORTHWEST AND STRENGTHEN OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. SOME
GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN FRIDAY
MORNING...BUT FEEL IT WILL BE A SHORT DURATION EVENT AND WILL HOLD
OFF ON GALE HEADLINES FOR NOW. WILL CONTINUE WITH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR THE IL AND IN NEARSHORE AREA. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW
WILL TAKE A PATH FURTHER NORTH FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO LAKE
SUPERIOR...GENERATING MODERATELY STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS IL AND IN AROUND
WEDNESDAY.

ALLSOPP

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...ILZ006-ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ022 UNTIL 9 AM
FRIDAY.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ008-ILZ010-
ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ019-ILZ020 UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY.

IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002 UNTIL 9 AM FRIDAY.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 4 PM FRIDAY.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 10 PM SATURDAY.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

1046 PM CST THU FEB 23 2012

.DISCUSSION...
901 PM CST

NO CHANGES TO GOING ADVISORY HEADLINES THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...
FORECAST REMAINS QUITE COMPLEX WITH RESPECT TO SNOW AMOUNTS AND
PRECIP TYPES THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS.

RATZER

//PREV DISCUSSION...
322 PM CST

THE WINTER SYSTEM IS STILL OFFERING PLENTY OF COMPLEXITIES INTO
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING...WITH TRANSITION TIME TO SNOW AND
TOTAL DURATION OF SNOW REMAINING THE MAIN CHALLENGES WITH THE
FORECAST.

MTF

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...

* RA/DZ/SN TRANSITIONS TO ALL WET SNOW OVERNIGHT
* IFR/LIFR CIGS LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO FRI MORNING
* WET SNOW TAPERS OFF FRI MORNING, FLURRIES POSSIBLY LINGER
* SCTD SHSN POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
* CIGS/VSBY CLIMB ABOVE IFR FRIDAY AFTERNOON OUTSIDE ANY SHSN

IZZI

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...

IZZI

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 04Z...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP CHANGING TO ALL SNOW
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON TIMING
* HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ACCUMULATING SNOW ENDING BY AROUND 15Z
* LOW CONFIDENCE ON SHSN THREAT FRIDAY AFTERNOON
* HIGH CONFIDENCE ON WIND/CIG TRENDS.

IZZI

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 00Z...

SATURDAY...VFR.

SUNDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS...OTHERWISE VFR.

MONDAY...VFR.

TUESDAY...CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW...POSSIBLE MVFR.

WEDNESDAY...CHANCE FOR RAIN...POSSIBLE MVFR.

RODRIGUEZ

.MARINE...
116 PM CST

ALLSOPP

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...ILZ006-ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ022 UNTIL 9 AM
FRIDAY.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ008-ILZ010-
ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ019-ILZ020 UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY.

IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002 UNTIL 9 AM FRIDAY.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 4 PM FRIDAY.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 10 PM SATURDAY.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

1007 PM CST THU FEB 23 2012

.DISCUSSION...
901 PM CST

NO CHANGES TO GOING ADVISORY HEADLINES THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...
FORECAST REMAINS QUITE COMPLEX WITH RESPECT TO SNOW AMOUNTS AND
PRECIP TYPES THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS.

RATZER

//PREV DISCUSSION...
322 PM CST

THE WINTER SYSTEM IS STILL OFFERING PLENTY OF COMPLEXITIES INTO
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING...WITH TRANSITION TIME TO SNOW AND
TOTAL DURATION OF SNOW REMAINING THE MAIN CHALLENGES WITH THE
FORECAST.

MTF

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 04Z...

* RAIN/DRIZZLE/GRAUPEL WILL CHANGE TO WET SNOW OVERNIGHT
* CIGS/VSBY LIKELY REMAIN IFR/LIFR THROUGH TONIGHT
* STEADY SNOW TAPERS OFF TO SCT`D SHSN BY MID MORNING FRIDAY
* CIGS/VSBYS TO STEADILY IMPROVE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY
* SHSN POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON

IZZI

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 02Z...

SITUATION EVOLVING MORE SLOWLY THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED AND HAVE
ONCE AGAIN DELAYED THE ONSET OF STEADIER SNOWFALL. RADAR/SATELLITE
TRENDS SHOW CONVECTIVEY ELEMENTS CONTINUING TO POP UP FROM CHGO
METRO SW TO UIN AREA...WITH REPORTS OF RA/SN/GS BEING RECEIVED
WITH THESE SHOWERS. UNTIL STEADIER HEAVIER DEFORMATION BAND
DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT...WOULD EXPECT TO CONTINUE
TO SEE OCNL SHRASNGS WITH PERIODIC DZ OUTSIDE OF THE SHOWERS.

STARTING TO SEE A MORE ORGANIZED FRONTOGENETIC BAND DEVELOP NEAR
THE QUAD CITIES INTO NW IL AND WOULD ANTICIPATE THIS BAND TO GROW
IN AREAL COVERAGE AND DEVELOP EAST TONIGHT...EVENTUALLY REACHING
CHICAGO METRO AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. STILL ANTICIPATE A 4-6 HOUR
LONG PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW FOR CHICAGO...THOUGH NOW
APPEARS AS THOUGH THE MORE LIKELY TIMING IS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING.

IZZI

UPDATED 00Z...

MOST CONCENTRATE BAND OF FRONTOGENETICALLY DRIVEN RAIN/WET SNOW
HAS SHIFTED NORTH OF THE TERMINALS INTO FAR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
WITH POCKETS OF PRIMARILY RAIN REMAINING OVER NORTHERN IL. HEAVIER
BURSTS OF PRECIP EARLY THIS EVENING COULD RESULT IN RAIN MIXING
WITH OR CHANGING TO WET SNOW...HOWEVER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
THE UPPER LOW STILL DIGGING SOUTHEAST INTO WESTERN IOWA EARLY THIS
EVENING. SHOULD SEE FORCING FROM THIS UPPER LOW RESULT IN INCREASE
IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF PRECIPITATION OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS AS
THE EVENING WEARS ON. SUSPECT COOLING REQUIRED TO CAUSE A CHANGE
OVER TO WET SNOW WILL BE DRIVEN LARGELY BY DYNAMIC COOLING/ASCENT
AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES...SO THIS MAKES TIMING SOMEWHAT
TRICKY. TRENDS IN SHORT RANGE MODELS AS WELL AS SATELLITE IMAGERY
TEND TO SUPPORT A SLOWER CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW AND HAVE DELAYED
THE SWITCH-OVER ANOTHER HOUR WITH THE LATEST SET OF TAFS.

ONCE BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW DEVELOPS WOULD ANTICIPATE
SEEING A A GOOD 4-6 HOUR LONG PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AT
THE CHGO METRO TERMINALS FROM LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH MUCH OF
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW ALSO
SUPPORTS HANGING ONTO THE HEAVIER/ACCUMULATING SNOW LATER INTO THE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FRIDAY. HAVE CONTINUED WITH IFR VSBY SNOW
THROUGH 14Z...BUT ACTUALLY WORRIED THAT THE SNOW COULD BE HEAVIER
EVEN INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY WHEN MORNING TRAFFIC PICKS UP.

HAVE MAINTAINED TEMPO FOR +TSSN IN THE TAFS AS OBSERVATIONAL DATA
AND SPC MESOANALYSIS DATA CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE PRESENCE OF WEAK
INSTABILITY WHICH COMBINED WITH STRONG FORCING WOULD SEEM TO
SUPPORT THE THREAT OF EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT.

STEADY SYSTEM SNOWS ARE LIKELY TO END EARLY/MID MORNING FRIDAY BUT
CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW...DEEP MOISTURE...AND EXCEPTIONALLY STEEP
LAPSE RATES WOULD SUPPORT THE CONTINUATION OF SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH
THE DAY FRIDAY. WHILE HAVE ONLY HAVE ONLY VFR SHSN IN THE TAFS FOR
NOW...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR PERIODIC IFR VSBYS WITH ANY HEAVIER
SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WILL TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT THIS
POTENTIAL WITH LATER TAF ISSUANCES.

IZZI

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 04Z...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SWITCH OVER TO HEAVY WET SNOW...MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING
* LOW CONFIDENCE ON THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ACCUMULATING SNOW LINGERING INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON SHSN POTENTIAL FRIDAY AFTERNOON

IZZI

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

SATURDAY...VFR.

SUNDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS...OTHERWISE VFR.

MONDAY...VFR.

TUESDAY...CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW...POSSIBLE MVFR.

WEDNESDAY...CHANCE FOR RAIN...POSSIBLE MVFR.

RODRIGUEZ

.MARINE...
116 PM CST

ALLSOPP

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...ILZ006-ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ022 UNTIL 9 AM
FRIDAY.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ008-ILZ010-
ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ019-ILZ020 UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY.

IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002 UNTIL 9 AM FRIDAY.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 4 PM FRIDAY.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 10 PM SATURDAY.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL

1159 AM CST FRI FEB 24 2012

.AVIATION...
COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES UPSTREAM... ONE OVER SOUTHERN MN
AND A SECOND DROPPING INTO NW MN ATTIM ... WILL KEEP LOW CLOUDS
AROUND THROUGH AT LEAST FIRST HALF OF TNGT WITH HIGHLY VARIABLE CIGS
FROM MVFR (1500-2000 FT AGL) TO VFR (4000-6000+ FT AGL). FEW-SCT
SHSN EXPECTED AROUND THE AREA THROUGH EARLY EVE... WHICH COULD
BRIEFLY REDUCE VSBYS TO 1-5SM. MAY SEE CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT BY LATE
EVE AND OVRNGT WITH VFR CONDITIONS BUT SOME LINGERING BASES AT
MVFR LEVELS... AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASS BY AND SUBSIDENCE
INCREASES. WINDS BRISK THROUGH EARLY EVE AT 15-30 KTS FROM W/NW WILL
DIMINISH TO AROUND 10-15 KTS OVRNGT THROUGH 18Z SAT.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 AM CST FRI FEB 24 2012/

SYNOPSIS...
06Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS A LOW NEAR KDNV WITH THE MAIN SYNOPTIC LOW
SOUTHEAST OF KCEZ BUT STILL WEST OF CINCINNATI. A SUGGESTED MESO LOW
WAS SOUTH OF KVYS BUT EAST OF KC75 ALONG THE ILLINOIS RIVER. AN
INVERTED TROF RAN NORTHWEST FROM THE MESO LOW INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN
WHILE A SECONDARY TROF RAN FROM THE LOW WEST INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI.
DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 20S AND 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDWEST WITH
40S AND HIGHER IN THE OHIO VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH. RADAR TRENDS SHOW
THE DEFORMATION ZONE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE AREA.

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
THE IMMEDIATE CONCERN IS WHAT TO DO WITH CURRENT HEADLINES.

OVERALL...TRENDS FROM THE RUC ARE QUITE USEFUL IN DEPICTING THE
CURRENT WX. A COMBINATION OF THE HEAVY RAIN TOOL WITH OVERALL
FORCING/CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS INDICATES THAT SNOW WILL
STILL BE ONGOING ACROSS THE EASTERN CWFA AT 12Z IN THE DEFORMATION
ZONE. AS SUCH...THE CURRENT HEADLINES WILL BE EXTENDED FOR 1-2 HRS
FOR HENRY...WHITESIDE...BUREAU...AND PUTNAM COUNTIES IN ILLINOIS.

AFT 14Z...RUC TRENDS SHOW THE OVERALL FORCING FALLING APART WITH
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS RISING A LITTLE. HOWEVER...THE
OVERALL ATMOSPHERE REMAINS SATURATED SO WHILE THE INTENSITY OF THE
SNOW WILL LET UP TO POSSIBLY ONLY FLURRIES...-SN SHOULD CONTINUE
DURING THE MORNING HOURS.

BY LATE MORNING AND CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES BECOME VERY STEEP. THE RUC ALONG WITH OTHER MODELS SHOW A
RESPECTABLE VORT MAX ROTATING THROUGH THE AREA WHICH SHOULD INDUCE
SHSN FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE STEEP LAPSE
RATES WILL ALSO ALLOW HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR TO MIX DOWN RESULTING IN
BRISK IF NOT WINDY CONDITIONS.

ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AFTER 12Z SHOULD BE GENERALLY ONE HALF
INCH OR LESS.

TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN QUITE STEEP WITH NO
STABILIZATION OCCURRING UNTIL ROUGHLY SUNRISE. ADD INTO THIS
CHANNELED VORTICITY WITH SOME CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE AREA AND
CLOUDS MAY BE SLOW TO BREAK UP OR CLEAR OUT. THEREFORE...WILL HOLD
ONTO THE CLOUDS LONGER. ADDITIONALLY...SINCE SUNSET IS NOW CLOSER TO
6 PM THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING FLURRIES OR DECAYING SHSN INTO THE
EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE EASTERN CWFA.
08..

LONG TERM...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER REGIME WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE LONG TERM
FORECAST. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH A POTENT S/W PASSING TO OUR
NORTH LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH A SIGNIFICANT TROF MOVING THROUGH
MID-WEEK.

FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE OVER
THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY. THE RIDGE IS PUSHED EAST BY SATURDAY
EVENING AS S/W ENERGY MOVES OUT OF THE PAC NW INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...DRIVING A SURFACE LOW INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS BY SUNDAY
MORNING. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS DURING THE PERIOD SO TEMPERATURES
WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN. LIMITED MIXING IN THE RIDGE AXIS
SATURDAY WILL LIMIT HIGHS. THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME RESIDUAL SNOW
COVER NORTH FROM THE CURRENT EVENT...SO WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE
30S. MINS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY OCCUR DURING THE EVENING AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINS INCREASING AHEAD OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS
SURFACE LOW. KEPT MINS AROUND 20 IN THE NORTHEAST WHERE BEST
COOLING POTENTIAL EXISTS WITH LIGHT WINDS IN THE EVENING AND
POSSIBLY SOME SNOW STILL ON THE GROUND. LOWS IN THE SOUTHWEST
SHOULD OCCUR FAIRLY EARLY IN THE EVENING...SO KEPT THAT AREA IN THE
LOW 30S. TEMPS SHOULD STEADY OUT OR RISE SOME DURING THE LATE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT THE NORTHERN PLAINS S/W AND SURFACE LOW
WILL CROSS MN AND MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY MORNING. A
COLD FRONT BEHIND THE SYSTEM WILL DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND THE BEST
FORCING STAYING WELL NORTH OF THE CWFA...HAVE REMOVED THE LOW POPS
FROM THE NORTH. HIGHS IN THE 40S NORTH TO MID 50S FAR SOUTH LOOK
REASONABLE WITH THE FORECAST AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR SUNDAY...AND
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS TO AID DEEP MIXING. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT THE AIR BEHIND THE FRONT IS NOT THAT
COLD...SO KEPT MINS IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S.

THE NEXT SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE AREA IS A SIGNIFICANT TROF THAT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE CA COAST MONDAY AND HEAD EAST INTO THE
PLAINS BY TUESDAY EVENING. THE MODELS WERE COMING INTO DECENT
AGREEMENT ON THE 24/00Z RUN WITH THIS SYSTEM TAKING A MORE
NORTHERN TRACK...LIFTING THE SURFACE LOW THROUGH NW IA TUESDAY
NIGHT AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY LATE WEDNESDAY. WITH GOOD
AGREEMENT AMONG THE LONG RANGE MODELS THE BLENDED GUIDANCE HAS
WARMED TEMPERATURES UP CONSIDERABLY MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. HAVE EVEN BUMPED UP TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES FROM
GUIDANCE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WHEN IT APPEARS WE WILL BE IN
THE WARM SECTOR. THE SYSTEM SHOULD HAVE SOME GULF MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY SO MAINTAINED HIGH
CHANCE OR LIKELY POPS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR TUESDAY NIGHT WHEN THE BEST FORCING WILL
LIFT THROUGH THE AREA. HOWEVER...I DID NOT MENTION ANY THUNDER
YET...SINCE THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL FOR THE MODEL SOLUTIONS TO
VARY. STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL USHER IN COLDER AIR LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS THE OCCLUDED SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEAST
THROUGH WI AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES. WITH THE COLD AIR MOVING BACK
IN ANY LINGERING PRECIP WILL MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW. BY
THURSDAY TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL. ..DLF..

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS DES MOINES IA

1139 AM CST FRI FEB 24 2012

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ACCUMULATING SNOW QUICKLY DIMINISHING AS SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO
PULL EAST THIS MORNING. MAIN CONCERN TODAY IS WITH WINDS AND
POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SHOWERS. CAA WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY WITH PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SOME MIXING. MIXING WILL BE
SOMEWHAT LIMITED TO THE STRATUS DECK HOLDING STRONG THROUGH THE DAY.
WINDS ATOP THE MIXED LAYER NEARING 40KTS BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT THINKING THE RUC IS A LITTLE OVERDONE AND LEANED
TOWARD THE SREF/NAM FOR WINDS. THE 925-850MB RH PERSISTS TODAY AND
IS WELL WITHIN THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN
AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. KEPT WITH MENTION OF
SNOW SHOWERS TODAY AND LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS...MAY SEE A HALF INCH
FROM THE ALO TO MCW AREA. NOT ANTICIPATING TEMPS TO RISE ALL THAT
MUCH TODAY WITH THE CAA...STRATUS DECK...AND FRESH SNOW PACK. SO
WENT SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS TODAY.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TWO SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS TO CONTEND WITH THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...PRECEDED BY VERY MINOR WAVE TONIGHT. THE LATTER IS
EXPECTED TO CROSS THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY BY
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. WAVE IS CURRENTLY GENERATING SOME
LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES ACROSS MT/ND SO HAVE ADDED TRACE WORDING SW
DURING THE EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. MODEL REFLECTION OF THIS
SYSTEM QUITE VARIABLE WITH GEM REGIONAL AND GLOBAL MOST
AGGRESSIVE...WHILE THE ECMWF AND DOMESTIC MODELS ARE WEAKER. ANY
FORCING IS VERY COMPACT HOWEVER SO DAY SHIFT WILL HAVE TO EXAMINE
WHETHER STRENGTH IS SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT MEASURABLE MENTION AND IF
SO WHETHER IT CLIPS US OR STAYS JUST TO THE SOUTH AND WEST.

NEXT SYSTEM CURRENTLY OFF THE PACIFIC NW COAST WILL CROSS THE
ROCKIES SAT BEFORE AMPLIFYING AS IT ENTERS THE MID MO VALLEY.
FORCING...BOTH KINEMATIC AND THERMODYNAMIC...IS QUITE IMPRESSIVE
WITH THIS SYSTEM SAT NIGHT BUT MOISTURE BELOW 2.5KM IS SPARSE. BY
SUN AIRMASS REMAINS DRY WITH DOWNWARD MOTION QUICKLY SURGING IN
BEHIND SHARP QG FORCING COUPLET SO HAVE REMOVED NRN POPS ON SUN.
CONSIDERING THE STRENGTH OF THE LIFT SAT NIGHT THAT MAY BE A BETTER
POTENTIAL PRECIP WINDOW AND MAY NEED TO ADD TRACE AMOUNTS AT SOME
POINT IF MOISTURE CAN INCREASE SLIGHTLY.

NEXT SYSTEM WHICH IS EVEN STRONGER WITH SIMILAR BUT SLIGHTLY MORE
SOUTHERLY PATH WILL ENTER MO VALLEY LATE TUE. 00Z GFS/ECMWF ARE NOW
IN QUITE GOOD AGREEMENT TRACKING DEEP SURFACE LOW ACROSS NWRN IA TUE
EVENING. ALTHOUGH POTENT SNOW STORM MAY AFFECT DAKOTAS AND
MN...THIS PATH WILL KEEP IA MAINLY IN THE WARM SECTOR WHICH HAS
RESULTED IN WARMER TEMP FORECAST MON INTO TUE...ALONG WITH FURTHER
NUDGING UPWARD OF POPS. OVERALL FORCING WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE MON
NIGHT WITH SNOW POSSIBLE THEN INCREASE FURTHER TUE AND TUE NIGHT
WITH TRANSITION TO RAIN SHOWERS. HAVE ALSO ADDED ISOLATED THUNDER
CONSIDERING OVERALL STRENGTH OF LIFT ALONG WITH SHOWALTERS HOVERING
AROUND ZERO AND K INDICES WELL INTO THE 20S AND LOWER 30S. AS
SYSTEM PULLS AWAY WINDS WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY FEATURE FOR IA.
MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS SUSTAINED SPEEDS ABOVE 20KTS SOUTH AND WEST
BY MIDDAY WED WITH GUSTS AT HIGH AS 35-40KTS.

.AVIATION...24/18Z
OVERNIGHT/MORNING MVFR CIGS HAVE LARGELY CLEARED OUT TO THE
EAST...BUT MAY LINGER IN MCW AT TIMES OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS.
MEANWHILE ANOTHER LARGE AREA OF LOW CLOUDS IS APPROACHING FROM SDAK
AND WILL REACH THE TERMINALS BTWN ABT 21Z AND 00Z THIS EVE. WITHIN
THIS CLOUD DECK CIGS ARE HIGHLY VARIABLE BTWN FL020 AND FL060 WITH
SCT -SHSN DROPPING VSBYS TO ANYWHERE BTWN 1SM AND 5SM. GIVEN THIS
VARIABILITY BUT FAIRLY WIDE COVERAGE OF SUCH CONDITIONS HAVE
INCLUDED TEMPOS AT MOST OF THE TERMINALS TO ACCOUNT FOR BOUNCING
CIGS/VSBYS THIS EVE. HOWEVER...NO CIGS IFR OR LOWER ARE EXPECTED ANY
ANY VSBYS BLO 3SM WILL BE VERY LOCALIZED AND BRIEF. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING BY SAT MORN.

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

SHORT TERM...KLP
LONG TERM...BSS
AVIATION...LEE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL

804 AM CST FRI FEB 24 2012

.UPDATE...
THE DEFORMATION ZONE IS NOW EAST OF THE CWFA. ALL HEADLINES HAVE
BEEN DROPPED AS OF 8 AM.
...08..

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 545 AM CST FRI FEB 24 2012/

UPDATE...
RADAR TRENDS SHOW THE LAST OF THE DEFORMATION ZONE PRECIPITATION
OVER THE EASTERN CWFA. THIS IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN WHAT THE RUC
SUGGESTED A FEW HOURS AGO. BASED ON RADAR AND RUC TRENDS THE
HEADLINES FOR MOST OF THE AREA WILL EXPIRE AT 12Z. WHITESIDE...
HENRY...BUREAU...AND PUTNAM COUNTIES WILL CONTINUE THEIR
RESPECTIVE ADVISORIES WHERE THE RELATIVELY HEAVIER SNOW WILL
CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS.

SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO FALL OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH MID
MORNING BUT WITH VISIBILITIES IMPROVING ANY NEW ACCUMULATION WILL
BE UNDER ONE HALF INCH. THE FCST FOR THE AFTERNOON STILL LOOKS
REASONABLE WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH CYCLONIC FLOW AND
A VORT MAX ROTATING THROUGH THE AREA.

THE FCST WILL BE UPDATED HOURLY THROUGH 8 AM TO REFLECT THE
HEADLINES DROPPING OFF.
.08..

AVIATION...
IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR THROUGH 18Z/24. MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 00Z/25 WITH POSSIBLE SHSN. IF A
SHSN WOULD IMPACT A TAF SITE...IFR OR LIFR CONDITIONS MAY BE
BRIEFLY SEEN. AFT 00Z/25 CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO VFR.
.08..

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 AM CST FRI FEB 24 2012/

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
THE IMMEDIATE CONCERN IS WHAT TO DO WITH CURRENT HEADLINES.

ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AFTER 12Z SHOULD BE GENERALLY ONE HALF
INCH OR LESS.

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DES MOINES IA

546 AM CST FRI FEB 24 2012

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.AVIATION...24/12Z
MVFR STRATUS DECK WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY AND KEPT
CIGS B/T 2500-3000 FEET THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS LOOK TO GUST TO
AROUND 25 TO 30KNOTS LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AND LIKELY
WILL SEE SOME SNOW SHOWERS. LOW CONFIDENCE WITH ANY VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS WITHIN THE SNOW SHOWERS TODAY...BUT COULD SEE A FEW
SHORT BURST OF MVFR VIS THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG GUSTS WILL DIMINISH
BY 00Z...BUT STILL SHOULD HAVE SOME STRONG SUSTAINED WINDS INTO
SATURDAY MORNING.

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

SHORT TERM...KLP
LONG TERM...BSS
AVIATION...KLP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL

545 AM CST FRI FEB 24 2012

.UPDATE...
RADAR TRENDS SHOW THE LAST OF THE DEFORMATION ZONE PRECIPITATION
OVER THE EASTERN CWFA. THIS IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN WHAT THE RUC
SUGGESTED A FEW HOURS AGO. BASED ON RADAR AND RUC TRENDS THE
HEADLINES FOR MOST OF THE AREA WILL EXPIRE AT 12Z. WHITESIDE...
HENRY...BUREAU...AND PUTNAM COUNTIES WILL CONTINUE THEIR
RESPECTIVE ADVISORIES WHERE THE RELATIVELY HEAVIER SNOW WILL
CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS.

THE FCST WILL BE UPDATED HOURLY THROUGH 8 AM TO REFLECT THE
HEADLINES DROPPING OFF.
..08..

.AVIATION...
IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR THROUGH 18Z/24. MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 00Z/25 WITH POSSIBLE SHSN. IF A
SHSN WOULD IMPACT A TAF SITE...IFR OR LIFR CONDITIONS MAY BE
BRIEFLY SEEN. AFT 00Z/25 CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO VFR.
..08..

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 AM CST FRI FEB 24 2012/

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
THE IMMEDIATE CONCERN IS WHAT TO DO WITH CURRENT HEADLINES.

ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AFTER 12Z SHOULD BE GENERALLY ONE HALF
INCH OR LESS.

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
BENTON-BUCHANAN-CEDAR-CLINTON-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-IOWA-JACKSON-
JOHNSON-JONES-LINN-MUSCATINE-SCOTT.

IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
CARROLL-JO DAVIESS-ROCK ISLAND-STEPHENSON.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR BUREAU-
PUTNAM.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR HENRY IL-
WHITESIDE.

MO...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DES MOINES IA

347 AM CST FRI FEB 24 2012

.AVIATION...24/06Z
HEAVY SNOW TAPERING OFF WITH LINGERING LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AFFECTING ALL TAF SITES WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF KOTM...WHICH WILL STILL HAVE SOME HEAVY SNOW IN THE
FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD. OTHERWISE EXPECT CIGS TO LIFT TO
MVFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT TO MOVE IN
ALLOWING FOR MIXING FRIDAY DURING THE DAY...AND STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS ALOFT TO MIX TO THE SURFACE. THIS COULD ALSO ALLOW FOR SOME
SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS
EXPECTED TO STAY UP FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MVFR/LOW VFR CIGS.

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

SHORT TERM...KLP
LONG TERM...BSS
AVIATION...MJB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL

317 AM CST FRI FEB 24 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
06Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS A LOW NEAR KDNV WITH THE MAIN SYNOPTIC LOW
SOUTHEAST OF KCEZ BUT STILL WEST OF CINCINNATI. A SUGGESTED MESO LOW
WAS SOUTH OF KVYS BUT EAST OF KC75 ALONG THE ILLINOIS RIVER. AN
INVERTED TROF RAN NORTHWEST FROM THE MESO LOW INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN
WHILE A SECONDARY TROF RAN FROM THE LOW WEST INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI.
DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 20S AND 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDWEST WITH
40S AND HIGHER IN THE OHIO VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH. RADAR TRENDS SHOW
THE DEFORMATION ZONE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE AREA.

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
THE IMMEDIATE CONCERN IS WHAT TO DO WITH CURRENT HEADLINES.

ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AFTER 12Z SHOULD BE GENERALLY ONE HALF
INCH OR LESS.

.LONG TERM...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER REGIME WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE LONG TERM
FORECAST. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH A POTENT S/W PASSING TO OUR
NORTH LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH A SIGNIFICANT TROF MOVING THROUGH
MID-WEEK.

.AVIATION... /ISSUED 1130 PM CST THU FEB 23 2012/
MODERATE SNOW WILL PERSIST AT AREA TERMINALS AND PRODUCE IFR
CONDITIONS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. AS THE SURFACE LOW AND
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFT EAST...SNOW WILL START ENDING AFTER
SUNRISE...AND VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP AT ALL TERMINALS BY
LATE MORNING. WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD...SHIFTING
FROM NORTH TO NORTHWEST AND GUSTING UP TO AROUND 25 KTS. WOLF

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
BENTON-BUCHANAN-CEDAR-CLINTON-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-IOWA-JACKSON-
JOHNSON-JONES-LINN-MUSCATINE-SCOTT.

IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
CARROLL-JO DAVIESS-ROCK ISLAND-STEPHENSON.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR BUREAU-
PUTNAM.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR HENRY IL-
WHITESIDE.

MO...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DODGE CITY KS

755 PM CST SAT FEB 25 2012

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 749 PM CST SAT FEB 25 2012

UPDATED THE ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT (ZFP) AND HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
(HWO) IN REGARDS TO CANCELING THE HIGH WIND WARNING AND WIND ADVISORY
(NPW). OBSERVATIONS AT KLBL AND KDDC SHOW MARGINAL WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA
AT 01Z. THE 01Z RUC SHOWS ELEVATED WINDS CONTINUING NEAR WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA DRIFTING EAST THROUGH 06Z (MIDNIGHT), BUT NOT READY TO BUY
THIS SOLUTION FROM LOOKING AT INITIALIZATION OBSERVATIONS.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TOMORROW)
ISSUED AT 145 PM CST SAT FEB 25 2012

THE MAIN FORECAST FOCUS WILL BE ON TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD.

WV IMAGERY AND 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE TRANSITIONING EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS.
MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS PUSHING ASHORE
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. NEAR THE SURFACE, A LEE SIDE TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE IS STRENGTHENING ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO.

SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PUSHING EAST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
SUNDAY. AS THIS OCCURS, THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT BRINGING THE POSSIBILITY FOR PRECIP TO THE
DAKOTAS INTO EARLY SUNDAY. HOWEVER, DRY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO
CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS EVEN AS AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
BEGINS TO PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO WESTERN KANSAS TONIGHT. EXTREMELY
DRY LAYERS NEAR THE SURFACE AND IN THE MID LEVELS, ALONG WITH A
LACK OF INSTABILITY, WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES AWAY FROM WESTERN
KANSAS THROUGH LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE WARMER TONIGHT EVEN AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT PUSHES SLOWLY ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN
KANSAS BY SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING. THE NAM AND GFS SHOW THE COLD
FRONT TO BE FAIRLY WEAK WITH H85 TEMPERATURES ONLY DROPPING FROM THE
TEENS(C) AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO THE SINGLE DIGITS(C) ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THE BOUNDARY. AS A RESULT, LOOK FOR LOWS DOWN INTO THE 30S(F)
WITH UPPER 20S(F) STILL POSSIBLE IN OUR NORTH AND WEST. FOR
SUNDAY, COOLER AIR WILL FILTER SOUTH INTO WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON KEEPING H85 TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE 0C ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS TO NEAR 5C IN OUR FAR SOUTHWEST. SHOULD SEE HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 50S(F) ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CST SAT FEB 25 2012

A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BE GOING THROUGH THE PLAINS ON SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY AHEAD THE NEXT STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL THEN BECOME
NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT MOVES QUICKLY INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS ON TUESDAY. THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW WILL STAY NORTH OF
KANSAS AND TRACK FROM NORTHEASTERN COLORADO INTO NEBRASKA. SO IT
WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN. AS THE WAVE APPROACHES ABUNDANT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOVE IN FROM TEXAS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS WITH UPSLOPE FLOW. THEN FOR MONDAY
NIGHT MORE LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH SOME DRIZZLE AND LIGHT FOG AS
MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUES. FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS KANSAS A DRYLINE TROUGH WILL PUSH FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
TUESDAY MORNING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE. BY AFTERNOON WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT AND THE DRYLINE MOVING INTO CENTRAL KANSAS
SKIES WILL BE CLEARING WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 25 TO 40 MPH. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME WITH MUCH OF THE
ACTIVITY MOVING EAST OF SAINT JOHN TO PRATT AND MEDICINE LODGE BY
AROUND NOON. IF THE SYSTEM MOVES A BIT SLOWER THAN EXPECTED IT IS
POSSIBLE SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FAR EAST CWA COULD HAVE
SOME SMALL HAIL, HOWEVER CURRENT INSTABILITY IS NOT IMPRESSIVE WITH
WEAK MID LEVEL CAPE AND DEWPOINTS ONLY AROUND 50. ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS ON THURSDAY WITH A
COLD FRONT AND ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW IN THE FAR NORTH
AROUND HAYS TO SCOTT CITY AND NESS CITY ON THURSDAY NIGHT. A
REINFORCING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PLAINS ON FRIDAY WITH
A COOLER AIRMASS. BY SATURDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST A
WARMING TREND BEGINS WITH A LEE TROUGH AND A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY
WINDS.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 20S ON SUNDAY NIGHT THEN RISE INTO THE
40S ON MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE STORM SYSTEM. THEN FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM 28 TO 35.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S ON MONDAY THEN
RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEHIND THE
STORM SYSTEM AS WINDS TURN STRONG WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE AND WARM. HIGHS
WARM FROM THE 50S WEDNESDAY TO THE LOW 60S THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE
NEXT COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE AROUND 50
THEN INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S ON SATURDAY.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 500 PM CST SAT FEB 25 2012

VERY STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 45
KNOTS WILL DECREASE TO AROUND THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE THROUGH THE
MID TO LATE EVENING HOURS. THIS WILL TEMPER THE BLOWING DUST AND
VISIBILITY AT GCK WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO ABOVE 3 MILES BY SHORTLY
AFTER SUNSET. BY 07-09Z LATE TONIGHT...WINDS WILL DECREASE FURTHER
TO AROUND 6 KNOTS OR LESS ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS. A DOWNSLOPE
MODIFIED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AROUND 12 TO 15
KNOTS. VFR SKY COVER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 33 55 26 47 / 0 0 0 30
GCK 31 53 25 46 / 0 0 10 30
EHA 32 53 27 49 / 0 0 10 30
LBL 32 54 28 49 / 0 0 0 30
HYS 31 53 24 46 / 0 0 0 30
P28 38 58 33 52 / 0 0 0 30

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...SUGDEN
SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM....KRUSE
AVIATION...UMSCHEID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DODGE CITY KS

626 PM CST SAT FEB 25 2012

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 621 PM CST SAT FEB 25 2012

HAVE UPDATED THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWO), FIRE WEATHER
PLANNING FORECAST (FWF), AND HAVE LET THE RED FLAG WARNING (RFW)
EXPIRE AT 00Z AS A RESULT OF DECREASING WINDS AND SLOWLY RECOVERING
SURFACE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES. CRITERIA WILL BE MARGINAL BETWEEN 00Z
AND 01Z BUT THE LATEST HRRR HAS SFC RH ABOVE 15 PERCENT BY 02Z.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TOMORROW)
ISSUED AT 145 PM CST SAT FEB 25 2012

THE MAIN FORECAST FOCUS WILL BE ON TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CST SAT FEB 25 2012

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 20S ON SUNDAY NIGHT THEN RISE INTO THE
40S ON MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE STORM SYSTEM. THEN FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM 28 TO 35.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 500 PM CST SAT FEB 25 2012

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 33 55 26 47 / 0 0 0 30
GCK 31 53 25 46 / 0 0 10 30
EHA 32 53 27 49 / 0 0 10 30
LBL 32 54 28 49 / 0 0 0 30
HYS 31 53 24 46 / 0 0 0 30
P28 38 58 33 52 / 0 0 0 30

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR KSZ030-031-043>046-
062-065-066-074-075-079>081-084-089-090.

HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR KSZ063-064-
076>078-085>088.

UPDATE...SUGDEN
SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM....KRUSE
AVIATION...UMSCHEID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TOPEKA KS

349 AM CST FRI FEB 24 2012

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER LEVEL JET REMAINS ON THE STRONG SIDE...RESIDING FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES THEN EAST-
NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS SHOWING A
MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN TAKING SHAPE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO RELAX WITH
YESTERDAYS WIND-MAKER ALREADY INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY.
SCATTERED LOWER CLOUDS CONTINUE TO MAKE SOUTHEAST PROGRESS THROUGH
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH SOME DEEPER CLOUD NOTED IN
EASTERN MONTANA AND THE WESTERN DAKOTAS.

MODELS QUITE SIMILAR WITH THE WEAK WAVE UPSTREAM OF THIS MORNINGS
ENHANCED CLOUDS REACHING CENTRAL PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA AND KANSAS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS RESULTS IN EASTERN
NEBRASKA...WITH FAR NORTHERN KANSAS ALONG ITS WARM SIDE. MAY SEE
SCATTERED HIGH-BASED PRECIP REACH THE NORTHERN COUNTIES BY MID
AFTERNOON...BUT PERSISTENCE AND COVERAGE SHOULD LIMIT ANY
ACCUMULATIONS TO TRACE AMOUNTS. FORCING DIMINISHES BY LATE EVENING
WITH CLEARING TAKING PLACE. SOME OTHER HIGH-BASED CU MAY DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON AS MIXING HEIGHTS ARE AGAIN ADVERTISED TO BE RATHER
HIGH UNDER THE -36C 500MB TEMPS. WILL AGAIN GO WITH SOME HIGHER
GUSTS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT EXTREME GUSTS SEEM RATHER
UNLIKELY GIVEN 50KT SPEEDS RESIDE ABOVE 600MB. WEAK WINDS IN QUICKLY
RISING UPPER HEIGHTS SHOULD ALLOW FOR LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
20S.

NEXT SYSTEM LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY STILL ON TRACK TO STAY WELL
NORTH OF THE AREA...BUT STILL BRING A MODIFIED PACIFIC FRONT THROUGH
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. STRONG WINDS WILL DEVELOP AS THIS SYSTEM
PASSES...AND COULD NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN THE
WEST...AND PERHAPS IN THE LATE EVENING TO EARLY MORNING HOURS
SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGHS SHOULD STILL REACH THE
UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S BOTH WEEKEND DAYS.

MODELS CONTINUE TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT TROF. A
FARTHER SOUTH TRACK SHOULD TAKE PLACE...WITH THE WEEKEND FRONT NOT
CLEARING THE GULF AND ALLOWING FOR BETTER MOISTURE RETURN. RAIN
CHANCES APPEAR BY LATE MONDAY IN INCREASING WARM AIR
ADVECTION...WITH BEST CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH
CONVECTION QUITE POSSIBLE BY LATE TUESDAY WITH THE FRONTS PASSAGE.
HAVE INCREASED TEMPS QUITE A BIT FOR THESE PERIODS AS MODELS
CONVERGE....THOUGH UNCERTAINTY STILL SOMEWHAT HIGH WITH ONSET AND
CLEARING OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS A MAIN PLAYER.

.AVIATION...
THE MVFR STRATUS HAS MOVED SOUTH ALONG THE MO RIVER...HOWEVER IT
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AS FAR WEST AS THE 00Z NAM THINKS IT SHOULD
BE. THE 03Z RUC STILL GRAZES TOP AND FOE WITH THE HIGHER 925 RH. SO
WILL KEEP A TEMPO MVFR CIG THINKING THERE IS STILL A REASONABLE
POTENTIAL FOR THE LOWER CIGS. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD BE EAST OF THE
TERMINALS BY SUNRISE FRIDAY. DEEP MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER
SHOULD LEAD TO GUSTY WINDS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.

WOLTERS

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TOPEKA KS

1100 PM CST THU FEB 23 2012

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
SEE PREV DISCUSSION.

WOLTERS

.PREV DISCUSSION... /307 PM CST THU FEB 23 2012/
THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY...SECONDARY PRESSURE SURGE AND
SUBSIDENCE WILL PRODUCE THE STRONGEST WINDS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS WITH GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH EXPECTED. UPPER LOW NOW
ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA WILL PIVOT SE OVERNIGHT WITH SOME STRATUS
EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE NORTHERN CWA OVERNIGHT BUT PRECIP SHOULD
BE LIMITED TO AREAS NEAR THE NEBRASKA BORDER OR NORTHWARD.

ANOTHER WINDY AND COOLER DAY IS EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 40S EXPECTED AS ANY STRATUS SHOULD SCATTER OUT BY
AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY...STRONG WINDS CHARACTERIZE THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND AS THE NEXT DEEPENING SURFACE TROF TRACKS ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS. THE SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH DRY AS A STRENGTHENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE WIND SPEEDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY. IN ADDITION...WELL MIXED PROFILER SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
HIGHS TO BE IN THE LOWER 50S SATURDAY INTO THE UPPER 50S SUNDAY.

AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST ANOTHER
PROGRESSIVE NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE CLOSED SURFACE LOW IS SHOWN TO DEEPEN
AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AMPLE MOISTURE
PROVIDED FROM THE GULF WILL DEVELOP DECENT CHANCES FOR RAIN OR
SNOW OVER THE CWA. WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF IS FASTER THAN THE 12Z
GFS...BOTH MODELS SEEM TO BE FAIRLY AGGRESSIVE IN THE STRENGTH OF
THE SYSTEM AND THE DECENT QPF AMOUNTS. AT THIS TIME...SIDED MORE
WITH THE ECMWF WHICH PLACES AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 IN THE
UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR WITH MUCAPES VALUES NEAR 300 J/KG AND 60 KTS
OF 0-6 KM SHEAR. DECIDED TO INCLUDE ISOLATED THUNDER TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS FOR THESE PARTICULAR AREAS WHILE
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 IS DEPICTING A MIXTURE OF LIGHT RAIN OR
LIGHT SNOW. BY TUESDAY EVENING...COLDER AIR WRAPPING ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE LOW SHOULD TRANSITION ALL PRECIP TO LIGHT SNOW
BEFORE THE SYSTEM EXITS WEDNESDAY MORNING. VARIABILITY IN TIMING
AND TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM BETWEEN THE MODELS IS LARGE AND YET TO BE
RESOLVED THIS MANY DAYS OUT.

BOWEN

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR KSZ011-012-024-026-
038>040-054>056-058-059.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR KSZ008>010-020>023-
034>037.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LOUISVILLE KY

1241 AM EST FRI FEB 24 2012

.Update...
Issued at 1241 AM EST Feb 24 2012

Upped PoPs to 100% where it is currently raining in the Blue Grass.
Moved the showers and storms out of the CWA around 09Z with dry
conditions from then through sunrise.

Issued at 1019 PM EST Feb 23 2012

Going to need to update the forecast quickly as convection is on the
rebound across our western sections. It appears that nocturnal
cooling is quickly eroding the elevated mix/warm layer and
convection is now being able to develop vertically with the
reduction in convective inhibition. Recent radar imagery reveals
showers and thunderstorms quickly developing west of I-65...but
still well out ahead of the surface frontal boundary. Storms do not
appear to be rooted in the surface layer...yet. Main threats look
to be gusty winds and possibly some large hail.

Updated products out shortly.

Update issued at 938 PM EST Feb 23 2012

Convection continues to rumble across our eastern sections this
evening. Parameters never really got in sync with each other to
produce a severe weather. We did have one decent storm that popped
across Bullitt county that produced a decent amount of dime sized
hail. Those storms have quickly moved to the northeast and are close
to exiting our Bluegrass counties. Other convection continues to
struggle across the eastern portions of south-central Kentucky.
Convection appears to be driven in large part by large scale ascent
ahead of an approaching trough axis. 00Z BNA sounding showed a very
deep mixed layer in the lower levels with some instability aloft.
Much of the activity across south-central KY appears to be elevated
as well.

Surface front is now pushing into western Kentucky. Some
development has recently popped up across northwest Tennessee near
Clarksville. Will be watching this activity as it is closer to the
better moisture and may eventually become rooted near the surface.
This activity...if it holds together would affect our far southern
counties over the next few hours. For now...have kept slight-chance
PoPs in the west with the highest PoPs in the east for the next few
hours. If convection to our southwest holds together, will need to
raise PoPs a bit more in the south. Overall threat of severe
weather looks greatly diminished...however any storm will be capable
of producing heavy rains, gusty winds, small hail, and cloud to
ground lightning.

Updated forecast and text products are already out.

Update issued at 635 PM EST Feb 23 2012

Did a quick update to the forecast to account for the batch of
convection that fired up east of I-65 and will affect the Bluegrass
region early this evening. Elsewhere, lowered PoPs slightly for the
next few hours and then ramped them back up as the frontal boundary
to the west swings through the region.

It appears that we`re in a waiting game this evening with regards to
the severe weather threat. Initial batch of convection fired just
west of I-65 late this afternoon. However, strong moisture
convergence and theta-e advection appears to have spawn the
convective cluster that is currently moving through the Bluegrass
region.

Looking at the mesoscale analysis...it appears that several
variables are present which are limiting our convective potential at
the present time. First...the strong mid-level westerly flow has
prevent moisture transport northward from the south. While the
models indicated that mid-50s dewpoints would advect north...that
has not happened...yet. Secondly, ACARS soundings out of SDF this
afternoon reveal an elevated mixed layer which has led to increasing
values of convective inhibition...generally across the south and
western sections of the forecast area. Convection across the
Bluegrass is not rooted at the surface...but appears to be elevated
in nature. The strong westerly flow has also resulted in bulk shear
values of over 70kts. Vertical and 3-D analysis of the radar data
with the initial storms indicated that the shear was tilting the
updrafts quite a bit to the NE with increasing height.

While it appears that we may be entering a relative minimum in
convective coverage, recent observations do show moisture pooling
out ahead of the surface cold frontal boundary which is still west
of the Wabash and Mississippi Rivers. Quality moisture is still
lacking, but dewpoints are getting into the mid 50s. With the onset
of nocturnal cooling...I believe that this elevated mixed/warm layer
will likely mix out. This perhaps may be already occurring to the
west as inhibition is weakening quickly to the west and CAPE values
have increased a bit according to the latest SPC mesoanalysis.

I believe that we still have a window of opportunity for convection
this evening as the front pushes into the region. The HRRR and
other high resolution models appear to have backed off convection
slightly. However, these models have a history of being a bit too
pessimistic with convection in the past. The other thing we have
noted is that the surface winds have started to shift back to
southwest in areas to our west. This will likely result in a
lowering of storm-relative helicity and may result in a lesser
threat for updrafts to obtain or sustain rotation. Will continue to
monitor things closely over the next couple of hours and amend the
forecast as required.

.Short Term (Tonight through Friday night)...
Updated at 300 PM EST Feb 23 2012

...Severe Weather Possible Through This Evening...

As of 20Z, a 990 mb surface low was over central Missouri, and its
associated warm front extended eastward across Kentucky. Starting
to see more of a cloud band coinciding with the east-west pressure
trough and wind shift. A fairly extensive cu field centered on the
confluence of the Wabash and Ohio Rivers seems to be the most likely
point to initiate severe convection in the next few hours.

SPC continues to advertise a slight risk, with a better than 30%
chance for severe wind gusts centered on the Ohio River. Tornado
probabilities have been lowered, but there is still concern
especially north of the boundary, where helicity is enhanced due to
the SE surface winds.

Temperatures have warmed sufficiently even north of the boundary
that the instability is there. However the low-level moisture return
has been slower to arrive, so we will have only a narrow window to
initiate storms late this afternoon. Worst weather is still expected
from roughly 22Z through 03Z, and at this point it is largely a
waiting game for convective initiation. Damaging winds, large hail,
and isolated tornadoes are all still in play.

Cold pool associated with the upper trof and low-level cold
advection will make for a chilly and raw Friday. Will maintain a low
overcast, with the chance for light rain especially in the northern
counties. POPs will range from a dry forecast south of the
Parkways...to a low-end chance in southern Indiana, and QPF will be
quite low. Tight pressure gradient behind the exiting low, and
efficient mixing will keep sustained winds at 15-25 mph with a few
gusts over 35 mph. Expect a very minimal recovery in temps, with
highs barely cracking 50 in the south. Lows Friday night will dip
into the upper 20s, which is actually just a couple degrees below
normal for this time of year. Expect a few flurries late in the
evening as the cold air finally arrives, but not looking for any
snow accumulation at all and will not mention a measurable POP.

.Long Term (Saturday through Thursday)...
Updated at 300 PM EST Feb 23 2012

Sat/Sun/Mon we`ll sit in a quiet weather period with temperatures
steadily increasing each day. Sfc high pressure will be in control
Sat/Sun with return flow beginning on Monday. Zonal flow aloft will
dominate Sat-Mon. While high temps will only be in the lower 40s
Sat, they should increase to the 50s for Sun/Mon. Low temps will be
in the mid 20s Sat night, but mid to upper 30s for Sun/Mon nights.

By Mon night, a strong upper level trough will drop south into the
Rockies creating lee side sfc cyclogenesis sometime early next
week. Models vary on the timing and sfc low/front evolution, but
generally it looks like the upper trough will push east into the
Midwest by Wed/Thurs with a sfc low pushing through the upper
Midwest. Ahead of this system, isentropic lift and very subtle
upper level waves passing through the region will begin Monday night
allowing for a 20% chance of rain showers over south central KY.
Lift and moisture return will continue to increase Tues combined
with weak upper level waves justifying an increase in POPs over the
entire area. Tues night or early Wed, the cold front or a warm
front and cold front (depending on which model soln you buy) will
cross the region causing showers and thunderstorms. There is still
quite a bit of discrepancy in the model sfc feature solns and so did
not make big changes to this forecast. As previously mentioned,
high temps for Tues/Wed will likely be warmer than what`s currently
in the forecast especially if we get a good warm surge ahead the
cold front. Will continue mid 50s to around 60 for highs Tues/Wed
until more certainty can be achieved.

Wed night/Thurs, precip should move east of the area with sfc high
pressure settling in again. High temps will cool back into the mid
40s to around 50.

.Aviation (06Z TAF Issuance)...
Updated at 1205 AM EST Feb 24 2012

Low pressure over Louisville will head off into Ohio over the next
several hours, dragging its cold front through LEX around 09Z.
Widespread storms, some severe, developed across the region earlier
this evening but SDF and BWG are already in the clear, and LEX
should be done with their storms in the 06-0630Z time frame. Winds
will be from the west behind the front at speeds around 10kt.

With VFR conditions expected, winds will be the main issue for
aviation. West winds will become strong and gusty by morning, and
will remain that way through the daylight hours today. Gusts to 30
knots can be expected, with SDF likely receiving the worst winds.

Though some patchy light rain is possible today, the models have
trended quite a bit drier so will keep TAFs dry.

One mention on ceilings...we will go with VFR cigs for now, but
models do suggest a sub-VFR ceiling may be possible during the
07Z-13Z time frame, so we will have to keep an eye on that.

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
$$

Updates..........MJ/13
Short Term.......RAS
Long Term........AMS
Aviation.........13

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LOUISVILLE KY

1212 AM EST FRI FEB 24 2012

.Update...
Issued at 1019 PM EST Feb 23 2012

Updated products out shortly.

Update issued at 938 PM EST Feb 23 2012

Updated forecast and text products are already out.

Update issued at 635 PM EST Feb 23 2012

.Short Term (Tonight through Friday night)...
Updated at 300 PM EST Feb 23 2012

...Severe Weather Possible Through This Evening...

.Long Term (Saturday through Thursday)...
Updated at 300 PM EST Feb 23 2012

Wed night/Thurs, precip should move east of the area with sfc high
pressure settling in again. High temps will cool back into the mid
40s to around 50.

.Aviation (06Z TAF Issuance)...
Updated at 1212 AM EST Feb 24 2012

Though some patchy light rain is possible today, the models have
trended quite a bit drier so will keep TAFs dry.

One mention on ceilings...we will go with VFR cigs for now, but
models do suggest a sub-VFR ceiling may be possible during the
07Z-13Z time frame, so we will have to keep an eye on that.

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
$$

Update...........MJ
Short Term.......RAS
Long Term........AMS
Aviation.........13

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PITTSBURGH PA

1025 PM EST SAT FEB 25 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
WITH COLD WESTERLY WINDS SUBSIDING OVERNIGHT, THE REMAINING SNOW
SHOWERS AND BLOWING SNOW WILL END BY DAWN. INCOMING MIDWEST HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH
TEMPERATURES EVENTUALLY REBOUNDING TO SEASONABLE LEVELS.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PER RECENT SURFACE AND RADAR DATA, COUPLED WITH HRRR AND NAM MODEL
OUTPUT, SNOW SHOWERS AND PATCHES OF BLOWING SNOW SHOULD END BY
DAWN SUNDAY.

RECENT RADAR AND SATELLITE DATA SHOWS THE REMAINING BANDS OF LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN. INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUD TOPS HAVE BEEN WARMING, WHICH SUPPORTS NAM
MODEL PROFILE PREDICTION OF A LOWERING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND
SUBSEQUENT SHRINKING UNSTABLE SURFACE LAYER.

SO EXPECT NO MORE THAN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH
AND MOUNTAINS BY MIDNIGHT, AND ONLY FLURRIES AND PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES BY 4 AM.

HAVE TWEAKED TEMPERATURES FOR THE OVERNIGHT AND DAYTIME SUNDAY,
CONSIDERING REFRIGERATIVE RADIATIVE EFFECTS OF FRESH SNOW COVER.
HENCE HAVE LOWS TONIGHT AND HIGHS SUNDAY AS MUCH AS 3 DEGREES
COLDER THAN THE PREFERRED COLDER NAM MOS.

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RECENT SREF MODEL OUTPUT SHOWS CANADIAN LOW PRESSURE PASSING
EASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT, THAT WILL PUSH A
WEAK COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND DAYTIME MONDAY. SYSTEM WILL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE
INFUSION, SO AT THIS JUNCTURE EXPECT ONLY AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS.

HIGH PRESSURE,MOVING EAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS, WILL MAINTAIN
DRY CONDITIONS TUESDAY, AS CONSENSUS OF GFS AND NAM MOS SHOW TEMPERATURES
MODERATING TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

FORECAST DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY SHOW A LARGE NORTH TO
SOUTH RANGE AS A WARM FRONT CREEPS NORTHWARD INTO THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY. TEMPERATURES COULD PUSH WELL INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60 IN
EAST CENTRAL OHIO WHILE HOLDING IN THE 40S NORTH OF I-80.

SCATTERED SHOWERS BEHIND THE SYSTEM MAY MIX WITH SNOW LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH AS
COLDER AIR MOVES IN.

A BREAK FROM PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY UNDER WEAK RIDGING. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT
LAKES AND SWING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY.

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS SUGGESTED BY HRRR AND NAM MODEL OUTPUT, AND SUPPORTED BY RECENT
SURFACE AND RADAR DATA, SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN. SO HAVE
MAINTAINED FORECAST OF STRATOCUMULUS CEILINGS AND SNOW SHOWERS, NO
LOWER THAN MVFR, TIL 09Z. STRATOCUMULUS SHOULD GO SCATTERED WITH
VISIBILITIES UNRESTRICTED AFTER THAT. VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT.

WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH, WITH GUSTS NO HIGHER THAN 20
KTS INTO 06Z. WINDS WILL THEN BE 5 TO 10 KTS LATE TONIGHT AND BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY DAYTIME SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS INTO TUESDAY EVENING. THEN RESTRICTIONS DUE TO A
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE. COLDER THURSDAY WITH LINGERING RESTRICTIONS
DUE TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PITTSBURGH PA

904 PM EST SAT FEB 25 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
AS COLD NORTHWEST WINDS SUBSIDE TONIGHT, SO WILL SNOW SHOWERS AND BLOWING
SNOW DIMINISH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES EVENTUALLY REBOUNDING TO
SEASONABLE LEVELS.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PER RECENT SURFACE AND RADAR DATA, COUPLED WITH HRRR AND NAM MODEL
OUTPUT, THE TREND TOWARD IMPROVING WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.

RECENT RADAR AND SATELLITE DATA SHOWS THE REMAINING BANDS OF LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WEAKENING. INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUD
TOPS HAVE BEEN WARMING, WHICH SUPPORTS NAM MODEL PROFILE
PREDICTION OF A LOWERING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND SUBSEQUENT
SHRINKING UNSTABLE SURFACE LAYER.

SO EXPECT NO MORE THAN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH
AND MOUNTAINS BY MIDNIGHT, AND ONLY FLURRIES AND PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES BY 4 AM.

HIGH PRESSURE,MOVING EAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS, WILL MAINTAIN
DRY CONDITIONS TUESDAY, AS CONSENSUS OF GFS AND NAM MOS SHOW TEMPERATURES
MODERATING TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

SCATTERED SHOWERS BEHIND THE SYSTEM MAY MIX WITH SNOW LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH AS
COLDER AIR MOVES IN.

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT BANDS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKENING AS SUGGESTED BY HRRR AND
850 FLOW. 850 RIDGE APPROACHING BY 09Z OR SO WITH FLATTENING
GRADIENT. WILL KEEP -SHSN IN TAFS WITH RESTRICTIONS THROUGH
03Z. EXPECT SOME 6SM -SHSN AROUND THROUGH 08Z OR SO BUT NO
LOWER RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY. KEPT CEILINGS 25-35 BKN UNTIL
ABOUT 08-09Z THEN SCT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR SUNDAY WITH
VFR CONDITIONS.

NEXT SYSTEM (LOW AND WARM FRONT) MOVES NORTH OF OUR REGION WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS TERMINALS. WEAK FRONT THROUGH ON MONDAY AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO AREA. VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.

WIND STILL GUSTY AT 00Z BUT WILL ALSO GRADUALLY DIMINISH. THEY
WILL BE COME LIGHT AND FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WITH WIND AND SHOWERS. COLDER ON THURSDAY WITH SOME -SHSN.

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
PAZ007>009.
WV...NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PITTSBURGH PA

655 PM EST SAT FEB 25 2012

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PER RECENT SURFACE AND RADAR DATA, COUPLED WITH HRRR AND NAM MODEL
OUTPUT, EXPECT A TREND TOWARD IMPROVING WEATHER CONDITIONS
TONIGHT.

RECENT RADAR DATA DOES SHOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWER BANDS,
CONTINUING TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY THIS
EVENING. THE BANDS APPEAR TO BE MORE CELLULAR IN COVERAGE THAN
EARLIER, AND HRRR SHOWS THIS TREND TO CONTINUE. NAM MODEL PROFILES
SHOW THE UNSTABLE SURFACE LAYER SHRINKING UNDER A LOWERING
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION TONIGHT. SO EXPECT NO MORE THAN SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS BY 10 PM OR MIDNIGHT,
AND ONLY FLURRIES AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES BY 3 OR 4 AM.

HAVE TWEAKED TEMPERATURES UP TO 2 DEGREES COLDER TONIGHT AND
DAYTIME SUNDAY, CONSIDERING REFRIGERATIVE RADIATIVE EFFECTS OF
FRESH SNOW COVER. HENCE HAVE LOWS TONIGHT AND HIGHS SUNDAY UP TO 3
DEGREES COLDER THAN THE COLDER NAM MOS.

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS REGION MONDAY WITH LIMITED MOISTURE
AND ONLY AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS.. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY DRY HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING EAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE TO ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW A CLOSED UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW TRACKING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES/UPPER OHIO VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND OFF THE ATLANTIC
COAST THURSDAY. EXPECT RAIN TO SPREAD EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. FORECAST
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY SHOW A LARGE NORTH TO SOUTH RANGE
AS A WARM FRONT CREEPS NORTHWARD INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY.
TEMPERATURES COULD PUSH WELL INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60 IN EAST CENTRAL
OHIO WHILE HOLDING IN THE 40S NORTH OF I-80. SCATTERED SHOWERS
BEHIND THE SYSTEM MAY MIX WITH SNOW LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN.

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT BANDS CONTINUE BUT GRADUALLY WEAKENING AS SUGGESTED
BY HRRR AND 850 FLOW. 850 RIDGE APPROACHING BY 09Z OR SO WITH
FLATTENING GRADIENT. WILL KEEP -SHSN IN TAFS WITH RESTRICTIONS
THROUGH 02-03Z. EXPECT SOME 6SM -SHSN AROUND THROUGH 08Z OR SO BUT
NO RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY. KEPT CEILINGS 25-35 BKN UNTIL ABOUT
08-09Z THEN SCT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR SUNDAY WITH VFR
CONDITIONS.

NEXT SYSTEM (LOW AND WARM FRONT)MOVES NORTH OF OUR REGION WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS TERMINALS. WEAK FRONT THROUGH ON MONDAY AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO AREA. VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.

WIND STILL GUSTY AT 00Z BUT WILL ALSO GRADUALLY DIMINISH. THEY
WILL BE COME LIGHT AND FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WITH WIND AND SHOWERS. COLDER ON THURSDAY WITH SOME -SHSN.

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
PAZ007>009.
WV...NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PITTSBURGH PA

605 PM EST SAT FEB 25 2012

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PER RECENT SURFACE AND RADAR DATA, COUPLED WITH HRRR AND NAM MODEL
OUTPUT, EXPECT A TREND TOWARD IMPROVING WEATHER CONDITIONS
TONIGHT.

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT IN
STRATOCUMULUS AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. WITHIN REMAINING SNOW SHOWER BANDS, WHICH APPEAR
TO BECOMING MORE CELLULAR IN APPEARANCE, BRIEF IFR RESTRICTIONS
CAN OCCUR. WEST SURFACE WINDS WILL GUST TO 25 KT AT TIMES BEFORE
DIMINISHING EARLY TONIGHT.

THE FLOW OFF THE GREAT LAKES WILL SUBSIDE AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN LATER TONIGHT...BRINGING AN END TO SNOW SHOWERS. BROKEN
STRATOCUMULUS SHOULD LIFT TO NEAR 3000 FEET AND THEN SCATTER OUT
ACROSS MOST TERMINALS AFTER 06Z...WITH KDUJ AND KFKL EXPECTED TO
HOLD ON TO CEILINGS NEAR 3000 FEET THROUGH THE NIGHT.

VFR WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL ON SUNDAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES
ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
VFR WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS
WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION MONDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS ON
TUESDAY.

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
PAZ007>009.
WV...NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PITTSBURGH PA

932 AM EST FRI FEB 24 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE ERIE THIS MORNING WILL MOVE TO NORTHERN NEW
YORK THIS AFTERNOON WITH RAIN SHOWERS EARLY CHANGING TO SNOW
SHOWERS THIS EVENING. IT WILL TURN VERY WINDY AND MUCH COLDER
BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON WITH BLUSTERY AND COLD
CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
15Z...ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES BASED ON CURRENT READINGS.

AT 8AM...MADE UPDATES TO EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES AND SLOWED
TEMPERATURE DROP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON BASED OFF OF
THE MOST RECENT OBSERVATIONS AND RUC MODEL TRENDS. PUSHED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS BACK AN HOUR OR SO AND ADJUSTED SKY COVER AS SOME
AREAS WILL SEE SUN THIS MORNING AS A DRY SLOT CROSSES.

SURFACE CENTERED OVER LAKE ERIE WILL BRING A BRIEF SURGE OF WARM
AIR AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS IT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
TEMPS WARMING INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE AREA AND POSSIBLY THE 60S
ACROSS NORTH- CENTRAL WV THIS MORNING BEFORE A COLD FRONT
ARRIVES. THE COLD FRONT WILL SWING UNDERNEATH THE LOW AND BRING
MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES BY THIS EVENING. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS BEHIND THE FRONT BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z ACROSS THE AREA.
BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER STILL SUPPORT WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ACROSS
THE LOWLANDS AND UP TO 60 MPH FOR THE RIDGES. THUS, WIND ADVISORY
AND HIGH WIND WARNING REMAIN IN PLACE.

TONIGHT...RAIN SHOWERS WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT AS TEMPERATURES FALL THROUGH THE 30S. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO GUST TO NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR WESTERN
PA, NORTHERN WV, AND WESTERN MD BEFORE MIDNIGHT. GUSTS WILL BEGIN
TO DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT, ALTHOUGH STILL AT 20 TO 30 MPH BY
DAWN. WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS ANTICIPATED TO BECOME WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY BY DAWN. WITH 850MB TEMPS JUST SHORT OF 13C
DIFFERENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT AND MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT TO FLOW,
BELIEVE BEST ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OVERNIGHT WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN RIDGES WITH AROUND AN INCH ELSEWHERE.
OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE A MAV/MET BLEND.

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GFS/NAM/CANADIAN ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT A COLD LOW-LEVEL
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA AND ALLOW FOR
THE CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOWLANDS WITH LIKELY POPS
FOR THE LAKE EFFECT ZONES AND EASTERN RIDGES. SNOW SHOWERS WILL
DIMINISH ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL RIDGING AND DRY AIR BUILD
INTO THE AREA. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN RIDGES WITH GENERALLY LESS THAN INCH
ELSEWHERE. WITH 2 TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY ACROSS THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS, HAVE MENTIONED THIS IN
HWO. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THIS PERIOD.

THERE IS OPERATIONAL MODEL AGREEMENT THAT HIGH PRESSURE PASSING
SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL ALLOW FOR A DRY SUNDAY ACROSS THE AREA WITH
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO MODERATE CLOSER TO
SEASONAL NORMS BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY AND ABOVE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS FOR
THE FIRST HALF OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
CROSSES THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES MONDAY. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE
THIS WAVE AND IT`S ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STRETCH A
FRONT JUST ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS FRONT THEN BECOMES A
MECHANISM FOR WHICH ADDITIONAL WAVES WILL RIDE ALONG...SIMILAR TO
TODAY`S LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

WHILE TIMING AND STRENGTH ISSUES BEGIN TO DEVELOP BETWEEN THE
MODELS...BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF DEVELOP A LOW THAT IS PROGGED TO
APPROACH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY BRINGING RAIN
WEDNESDAY AND A CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS FOR THURSDAY.

WITH DECENT MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH THE PERIOD...KEPT A BLEND OF THE
GFS/ECMWF WHICH IS CLOSE TO HPC GUIDANCE NUMBERS. THIS MAINTAINS
TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO SEASONABLE LEVELS BY LATE
THURSDAY.

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR AND TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING AS
CLEARING SKIES HAVE ALLOWED FOR SOME FOG AND LOW STRATUS TO
DEVELOP. MOST PORTS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR AS THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AROUND 10AM.

WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN AVIATION HAZARD FOR FRIDAY.

NAM MODEL PROFILES SHOW WINDS INCREASING IN SPEED TO 40 KTS AT ABOVE
2 KFT AGL LATE TONIGHT, WHILE WINDS IN THE STABLE SURFACE LAYER
REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KTS. HENCE EXPECT LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR TO
DEVELOP WITH THE WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE 10Z-14Z.

DURING THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, 13Z-18Z, VERTICAL MIXING WILL HELP
SOUTHWEST WINDS TO GUST OVER 30 KTS. POST FRONTAL WINDS ALOFT WILL BE
FASTER, HENCE SURFACE WIND GUSTS MAY PEAK AT OVER 40 KTS, 18Z-03Z.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RESTRICTIONS LIKELY WITH POST-SYSTEM
LAKE-ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY, PARTICULARLY
NORTH AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS. VFR SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY.

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ001.
OH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ039>041-
048>050-057>059-068-069.
PA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ007>009-
013>016-020>023-029-031-073-075.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ074-076.
WV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ001>004-012.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ021-022.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ023-041.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PITTSBURGH PA

847 AM EST FRI FEB 24 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM OHIO INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
TODAY WITH RAIN SHOWERS EARLY CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS THIS
EVENING. IT WILL TURN VERY WINDY AND MUCH COLDER BEHIND A STRONG
COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON WITH BLUSTERY AND COLD CONDITIONS
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 8AM...MADE UPDATES TO EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES AND
SLOWED TEMPERATURE DROP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON
BASED OFF OF THE MOST RECENT OBSERVATIONS AND RUC MODEL TRENDS.
PUSHED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BACK AN HOUR OR SO AND ADJUSTED SKY
COVER AS SOME AREAS WILL SEE SUN THIS MORNING AS A DRY SLOT
CROSSES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
THE LATEST RUC MID-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A 500MB TROUGH AXIS
CENTERED ACROSS ILLINOIS WITH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY IN A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. AT THE SURFACE, A 994MB
LOW IS CENTERED ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS EAST OF
THIS FEATURE ACROSS CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA. A STRONG COLD FRONT
EXTENDS SOUTHWEST OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
LINGERING SHOWERS THIS MORNING ARE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHEASTERN
RIDGES.

TODAY...THE SURFACE LOW WILL PASS JUST WEST OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING AND BE CENTERED OVER LAKE ERIE BY 18Z. THIS WILL BRING A
BRIEF SURGE OF WARM AIR AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS IT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. LAMP/HRRR SUPPORT TEMPS WARMING TEMPS INTO THE 50S
ACROSS THE AREA AND POSSIBLY THE 60S ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL WV
BEFORE A COLD FRONT ARRIVES. THE COLD FRONT WILL SWING UNDERNEATH
THE LOW AND BRING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES BY THIS EVENING. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BEHIND THE FRONT BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z
ACROSS THE AREA. BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER STILL SUPPORT WIND GUSTS
TO 50 MPH ACROSS THE LOWLANDS AND UP TO 60 MPH FOR THE RIDGES.
THUS, WIND ADVISORY AND HIGH WIND WARNING REMAIN IN PLACE.

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR AND TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING AS
CLEARING SKIES HAVE ALLOWED FOR SOME FOG AND LOW STRATUS TO
DEVELOP. MOST PORTS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR AS THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AROUND 10AM.

WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN AVIATION HAZARD FOR FRIDAY.

DURING THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, 13Z-18Z, VERTICAL MIXING WILL HELP
SOUTHWEST WINDS TO GUST OVER 30 KTS. POSTFRONTAL WINDS ALOFT WILL BE
FASTER, HENCE SURFACE WIND GUSTS MAY PEAK AT OVER 40 KTS, 18Z-03Z.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PITTSBURGH PA

639 AM EST FRI FEB 24 2012

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A QUICK UPDATE HAS BEEN ISSUED THIS MORNING TO ADD PATCHY DENSE
FOG IN THE MOUNTAINS SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE.

THE LATEST RUC MID-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A 500MB TROUGH AXIS
CENTERED ACROSS ILLINOIS WITH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY IN A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. AT THE SURFACE, A
994MB LOW IS CENTERED ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS
EAST OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA. A STRONG COLD
FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWEST OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. LINGERING SHOWERS THIS MORNING ARE CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHEASTERN RIDGES.

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHOWERS HAVE ENDED ACROSS ALL PORTS AS UPPER SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST
OF THE RIDGES. MOST LOCATIONS WILL MAINTAIN VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS,
EXCEPT KFKL AND KDUJ WHICH CAN EXPECT PERIODS OF MVFR TO IFR CEILING
BEFORE DAYBREAK. CEILINGS IN THE NORTH WILL IMPROVE AFTER SUNRISE.

WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN AVIATION HAZARD FOR FRIDAY.

DURING THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, 13Z-18Z, VERTICAL MIXING WILL HELP
SOUTHWEST WINDS TO GUST OVER 30 KTS. POSTFRONTAL WINDS ALOFT WILL BE
FASTER, HENCE SURFACE WIND GUSTS MAY PEAK AT OVER 40 KTS, 18Z-03Z.

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING FOR MDZ001.
OH...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST THIS EVENING
FOR OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069.
PA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING FOR PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-029-031-073-075.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING FOR PAZ074-076.
WV...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST THIS EVENING
FOR WVZ001>004-012.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING FOR WVZ021-022.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING FOR WVZ023-041.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PITTSBURGH PA

557 AM EST FRI FEB 24 2012

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A QUICK UPDATE HAS BEEN ISSUED THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR AN AREA
OF CLEARING CROSSING THE AREA AND TO REMOVE POPS EARLY.

WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN AVIATION HAZARD FOR FRIDAY.

DURING THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, 13Z-18Z, VERTICAL MIXING WILL HELP
SOUTHWEST WINDS TO GUST OVER 30 KTS. POSTFRONTAL WINDS ALOFT WILL BE
FASTER, HENCE SURFACE WIND GUSTS MAY PEAK AT OVER 40 KTS, 18Z-03Z.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PITTSBURGH PA

513 AM EST FRI FEB 24 2012

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE LATEST RUC MID-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A 500MB TROUGH AXIS
CENTERED ACROSS ILLINOIS WITH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY IN A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. AT THE SURFACE, A
994MB LOW IS CENTERED ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS
EAST OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA. A STRONG COLD
FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWEST OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. LINGERING SHOWERS THIS MORNING ARE CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHEASTERN RIDGES.

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHOWERS HAVE ENDED ACROSS ALL PORTS AS UPPER SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST
OF THE RIDGES. MOST LOCATIONS WILL MAINTAIN VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS,
EXCEPT KFKL AND KDUJ WHICH CAN EXPECT PERIODS OF MVFR TO IFR CEILING
BEFORE DAYBREAK. CEILINGS IN THE NORTH WILL IMPROVE AFTER SUNRISE.

WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN AVIATION HAZARD FOR FRIDAY.

DURING THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, 13Z-18Z, VERTICAL MIXING WILL HELP
SOUTHWEST WINDS TO GUST OVER 30 KTS. POSTFRONTAL WINDS ALOFT WILL BE
FASTER, HENCE SURFACE WIND GUSTS MAY PEAK AT OVER 40 KTS, 18Z-03Z.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PITTSBURGH PA

222 AM EST FRI FEB 24 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM KENTUCKY EARLY TODAY TO LAKE ERIE
THIS AFTERNOON WITH RAIN SHOWERS EARLY CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS
THIS EVENING. IT WILL TURN VERY WINDY AND MUCH COLDER BEHIND A
STRONG COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON WITH BLUSTERY AND COLD CONDITIONS
SATURDAY.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AN OVERNIGHT UPDATE HAS BEEN ISSUED TO LOWER POPS THROUGH DAWN AND
KEEP CHC THUNDER ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL WV AND RIDGES OF MD/WV.

THE LATEST RUC MID-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A 500MB TROUGH AXIS
CENTERED ACROSS IOWA WITH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY IN A SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. AT THE SURFACE, A 994MB LOW IS
CENTERED NEAR CINCINNATI OHIO. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS EAST OF THIS
FEATURE ACROSS CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA. A STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDS
SOUTHWEST OF THIS FEATURE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SHOWERS HAVE MOSTLY
PUSHED EAST OF THE AREA WITH A PATCH OF MID-LEVEL DRYING MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA. SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA REMAINS
ON A TRAJECTORY FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN RIDGES.

TODAY...THE SURFACE LOW WILL PASS JUST WEST OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING AND BE CENTERED OVER LAKE ERIE BY 18Z. THIS WILL BRING A
BRIEF SURGE OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS IT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE COLD FRONT WILL SWING UNDERNEATH THE
LOW AND BRING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES BY AFTERNOON. MORNING RAIN
SHOWERS WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON AS
TEMPERATURES FALL THROUGH THE 30S. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH
COLD ADVECTION AND A FAIRLY HIGH INVERSION WILL ALLOW FOR VERY
GUSTY WINDS ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR
THE RIDGES AND A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE LOWLANDS REMAIN IN EFFECT.

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRONG COLD ADVECTION IN WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS INTO SATURDAY EVENING. BEST
ACCUMULATION WILL BE IN THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES WITH TOTAL SNOWFALL
OF 3 TO 6 INCHES EXPECTED OVER A 24 TO 36 HOUR PERIOD WITH 2 TO 4
ACROSS THE I-80 CORRIDOR AND AN INCH OR LESS ELSEWHERE.
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH BUT REMAIN QUITE GUSTY INTO SATURDAY. SURFACE RIDGE WILL
WORK EAST ACROSS REGION LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
DIMINISHING SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY EVENING AND CLEARING SKIES
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL RECOVER TO NEAR NORMAL.

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHOWERS HAVE ENDED ACROSS ALL PORTS AS UPPER SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST
OF THE RIDGES. MOST LOCATIONS WILL MAINTAIN VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS,
EXCEPT KFKL AND KDUJ WHICH CAN EXPECT PERIODS OF MVFR TO IFR CEILING
BEFORE DAYBREAK. CEILINGS IN THE NORTH WILL IMPROVE AFTER SUNRISE.

WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN AVIATION HAZARD FOR FRIDAY.

DURING THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, 13Z-18Z, VERTICAL MIXING WILL HELP
SOUTHWEST WINDS TO GUST OVER 30 KTS. POSTFRONTAL WINDS ALOFT WILL BE
FASTER, HENCE SURFACE WIND GUSTS MAY PEAK AT OVER 40 KTS, 18Z-03Z.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

118 PM EST FRI FEB 24 2012

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1126 AM EST FRI FEB 24 2012

SNOW OVER NORTH CENTRAL HAS INCREASED WITHIN LAST HOUR WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS OFF LK SUPERIOR AND SOME HELP FROM FRINGE OF SYSTEM
MOVING BY TO THE SOUTHEAST. VIS SATELLITE INDICATES MID CLOUDS
STREAMING NORTH WHILE OVR FLOW OVR LK SUPERIOR IS MORE NORTHERLY.
INVERSION TOP IS AROUND 5-7KFT PER VWP AND TEMPS AT TOP OF INVERSION
ARE AROUND -12C. GIVEN THE ADDED SYNOPTIC SUPPORT THIS IS SEEMING
GOOD ENOUGH FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT. SNOW AMOUNTS SO FAR ARE AROUND A
HALF INCH...BUT IT REALLY HAS BEEN ONLY SNOWING FOR HALF HOUR. 1.5
DEGREE REFLECTIVITY OF KMQT RADAR INDICATES HIGHER REFLECTIVITIES
NORTH OF BIG BAY ARE SHRINKING TOWARD MARQUETTE COUNTY SHORE...SO
UPTICK IN SNOW MAY SETTLE BACK DOWN IN NEXT HOUR OR TWO. NORTH WINDS
SHOULD CONTINUE REST OF THE AFTN SO HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR
MARQUETTE/ALGER. BUMPED UP SNOW AMOUNTS TO 2-4 INCHES FOR REST OF
DAY. OUT WEST...KDLH RADAR INDICATES THAT HEAVIER BANDS OF LK EFFECT
ARE ABOUT TO BEGIN TO MOVE INTO WESTERN CWA. ADVY APPEARS GOOD THERE
ATTM. A BIT CONCERNED THAT BASED ON FCST CONVERGENCE FM HIGHER
RESOLUTION 12Z MODELS...THAT EVENTUALLY FAR NORTHERN GOGEBIC AND MUCH
OF NORTHERN ONTONAGON COULD GET INTO PERIOD OF HEAVIER SNOW LATE AFTN
THROUGH TONIGHT AND MAY NEED AN EVENTUAL WARNING. WILL CONTINUE TO
EVALUATE THIS DURING AFTN ONCE THE SNOW SETS UP OVR THE FAR WEST.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 521 AM EST FRI FEB 24 2012

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A TROF OVER THE CNTRL
CONUS. A VIGOROUS LOOKING SHORTWAVE TRACKING E INTO IL WAS
SUPPORTING A BAND OF SNOW FROM ERN IA ACROSS SRN WI/NRN IL INTO LWR
MI. UPSTREAM....A SHORTWAVE TROF EXTENDS FROM SRN MANITOBA THRU THE
ERN DAKOTAS/WRN MN WITH VORT MAX APPARENT OVER SE MANITOBA. AT THE
SFC...OBS INDICATE ASSOCIATED WEAK SFC LOW N OF KINL WITH TROF
EXTENDING SE TOWARD WRN LAKE SUPERIOR...AND KDLH RADAR SHOWS A BAND
OF -SN ALONG THE TROF. CLOSER TO HOME...MOISTURE EXTENDING TO AROUND
6KFT PER FCST SOUNDINGS AND IMPLIED BY KMQT VAD WIND PROFILE ALONG
WITH 850MB TEMPS OF -9/-10C IS SUPPORTING FLURRIES/-SHSN OFF LAKE
SUPERIOR INTO NCNTRL UPPER MI. -SHSN TRENDS OVERNIGHT HAVE BEEN ODD
WITH UNORGANIZED SNOW AREAS DEVELOPING AND INTENSIFYING OVER THE
WATER ONLY TO PERSIST FOR A WHILE AND THEN RAPIDLY WEAKEN. SHORT
TERM FCST CONCERNS WILL REVOLVE AROUND SHORTWAVE TO THE NW...AND THE
AFFECTS IT WILL HAVE ON LAKE EFFECT LATER TODAY THRU TONIGHT.

00Z CWPL SOUNDING PROBABLY GIVES A DECENT REPRESENTATION OF AIR MASS
THAT WILL BE OVER THE WRN FCST AREA LATER TODAY/TONIGHT. IF SO...
850MB TEMPS WILL DROP A COUPLE OF DEGREES C AND COLUMN MOISTURE WILL
DEEPEN SIGNIFICANTLY. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS
COOLING/MOISTENING. AT THE SAME...TIME WEAK DEEP LAYER FORCING WILL
OVERSPREAD WRN LAKE SUPERIOR/WRN UPPER MI IN ASSOCIATION WITH
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TO THE NW. AT THE LOW LEVELS...THERE IS
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG NUMEROUS MODELS THAT APPROACHING SFC TROF WILL
BASICALLY HANG UP OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR THIS AFTN (ESPECIALLY LATE)
AND TONIGHT FROM THE MN ARROWHEAD TO GOGEBIC/ONTONAGON COUNTIES. THE
RESULTING SHARP CONVERGENCE SHOULD REALLY AID LAKE ENHANCEMENT
POTENTIAL. WITH SNOW RATIOS OVERALL PROBABLY A LITTLE UNDER 20:1...
EVENT SHOULD EASILY EXCEED LOWER RATIO ADVY CRITERIA SNOWFALL (3
INCHES OR MORE IN 12HRS) WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED...
PROBABLY IN A FAIRLY SMALL AREA FROM KIWD TO WAKEFIELD...BERGLAND
AND WHITE PINE. PLAN TO RUN ADVY FOR ONTONAGON/GOGEBIC FROM 21Z
TODAY TO 15Z SAT FOR TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 5-9 INCHES. EMPHASIS
WILL BE ON THE AREA MENTIONED. WITH SOME LES ALEADY NOTED OVER WRN
LAKE SUPERIOR ON KDLH RADAR AND A DECENT BAND OF SYNOPTIC SNOW
ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING SFC TROF...IT`S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
THAT SNOWFALL COULD BECOME QUITE A BIT HEAVIER THAN CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED. WILL NEED TO WATCH MORNING/AFTN TRENDS FOR POTENTIAL
UPGRADE TO WARNING. ELSEWHERE ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR...SLIGHT COOLING
OF AIR MASS AND STRENGTHENING NORTHERLY WINDS WILL LEAD TO AN
INCREASE IN LES THIS AFTN INTO TONIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LIGHTER THAN OVER THE FAR W DUE TO LESS INFLUENCE FROM SHORTWAVE...
SHALLOWER MOISTURE AND WEAKER LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. WITH LONGER
FETCH AND MORE FAVORABLE WIND DIRECTION...SOME LOCATIONS FROM ERN
MARQUETTE COUNTY INTO ALGER COUNTY MAY SEE A FEW INCHES OF SNOW THRU
SAT MORNING.

DRIER AIR...LOWERING INVERSION AND INCREASINGLY ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AS
WINDS BACK WILL LEAD TO DIMINISHING LES SAT. WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND
-14C...PROBABLY WON`T SEE LES COMPLETELY END SAT AFTN.

ANY LINGERING LES/FLURRIES WILL END SAT EVENING AS SFC HIGH PRES
RIDGE SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. MIGHT BE A WINDOW FOR TEMPS TO PLUMMET
BEFORE HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE/THICKEN FROM W TO E DURING THE NIGHT.
BEST OPPORTUNITY WOULD PROBABLY BE OVER THE CNTRL DUE TO LONGER
PERIOD BTWN DEPARTURE OF LAKE STRATOCU AND INCREASE OF HIGH CLOUDS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 521 AM EST FRI FEB 24 2012

A 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC NW CONUS WILL
HAVE MOVED INTO THE NRN PLAINS BY THE START OF THE PERIOD 12Z
SUN...SPINNING UP A SFC LOW AS IT MOVED LEEWARD OF THE ROCKIES. THE
SFC LOW IS DEPICTED BY MODELS TO BE OVER ERN SD AT 12Z SUN. MODELS
STILL VARY IN THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM AT THIS POINT...AND
THROUGH THE TIME THE SYSTEM PASSES OVER THE CWA. THE 12Z/23 ECMWF
AND 00Z/24 GEM ARE ON THE STRONGER SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH THE SFC LOW
AROUND 996MB AT 12Z SUN...WHILE THE 00Z/24 GFS AND 00Z/24 NAM SHOW THE
SFC LOW AT 1002MB. ASSIDE FROM SYSTEM STRENGTH...MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK AND FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE SPEED OF THE
SYSTEM...WITH THE DEEPER ECMWF AND GEM BEING ON THE SLOW SIDE OF
GUIDANCE. USED A CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS FOR THE SPEED OF THE
SYSTEM...WHICH IS WEAKENING AS THE SHORTWAVE GETS SHEARED APART WITH
EASTWARD MOVEMENT.

WITH THAT IN MIND...THE SFC LOW /AND UPPER SHORTWAVE OVER OR JUST N
OF THE SFC LOW/ MOVES TO NEAR IRONWOOD BY 00Z MON. THE SFC LOW THEN
MOVES ACROSS UPPER MI...BEFORE MOVING TO THE FAR ERN CWA BY 12Z MON.
THIS TRACK CONFINES THE HEAVIEST SNOW /AND IT IS EXPECTED TO BE ALL
SNOW/ TO FAR NRN UPPER MI AND LAKE SUPERIOR. SYNOPTIC SNOW LOOKS TO
BE JUST MOVING INTO THE WRN CWA AROUND 12Z SUN...COVERING ROUGHLY
THE WRN HALF OF UPPER MI BY 18Z. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME
LES OVER ERN UPPER MI IN THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND 850MB TEMPS
AROUND -12C AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...BUT WILL KEEP THAT AT CHANCE POPS
FOR NOW. IT THEN LOOKS LIKE A DRY SLOT WILL ROTATE IN...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE SRN CWA. THE GFS CRANKS OUT AROUND 0.4 INCHES OF QPF OVER
MUCH OF UPPER MI THROUGH 12Z MON...BEFORE THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT AND
LES STARTS. THE NAM SHOWS CLOSER TO 0.5 INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA. THE ECMWF SHOWS AROUND 0.4 INCHES OF QPF OVER THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA AND LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH AROUND 0.2 INCHES OVER ALL BUT
SRN MENOMINEE COUNTY WHERE IT SHOWS LESS THAN 0.1 INCHES. THE GEM IS
VERY CLOSE TO THE GFS SOLUTION FOR QPF. THERE ARE SIGNALS THAT
INDICATE WE MAY GET A HEAVIER BAND OF SNOW ALONG THE WARM FRONT THAT
SURGES NORTHWARD LATE SUNDAY...WHICH WOULD FAVOR AREAS OF S CENTRAL
AND ERN UPPER MI TO GET SOME HEAVIER SNOW. WILL NOT PUT THIS DETAIL
INTO THE GRIDS JUST YET SINCE THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TRACK/TIMING OF THE SYSTEM. AS FOR QPF AMOUNTS...THE GFS AND GEM
SOLUTIONS WERE GOOD COMPROMISES BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GEM
OUTLIERS...SO I USED THOSE. THIS RESULTS IN AROUND 4 INCHES OF SNOW
STORM TOTAL.

ADDITIONAL SNOW WILL BE LIKELY BEHIND THE SYSTEM AS LES KICKS IN DUE
TO FALLING 850MB TEMPS IN GENERALLY NW WINDS BEHIND THE SYSTEM.
MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE ON THIS POINT STARTING MONDAY EVENING. THE
GFS IS MUCH FASTER TO BRING A SFC RIDGE IN FROM THE W THAN THE ECMWF
AND GEM...THUS KILLING THE LES FASTER AS WINDS BECOME COMPLETELY
OFFSHORE BY 12Z TUE.

MODELS THEN BRING A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TUESDAY TO SOMEWHERE S OF THE AREA WED. THERE HAS BEEN
CONSIDERABLE MODEL VARIABILITY WITH THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. THIS
COMBINED WITH INCREASED ATTENTION TO THE SUN/MON STORM LEAD ME TO
USE A CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE FOR THE TUE THROUGH THU PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 118 PM EST FRI FEB 24 2012

CONTINUED NRLY FLOW/COOLER AIR WILL KEEP LES AT ALL TAF SITES DURING
FORECAST PERIOD. MAIN AREAS OF CONCERN ARE IWD AND SAW. PRECIP
MOVING IN FROM THE W IS CAUSING ALTERNATE LANDING MINIMUMS AT
IWD...AND CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE TAF
PERIOD AS WINDS TURN MORE NW AND LAKE EFFECT PROCESSES TAKE OVER.
SOME UPDATES MAY NEED TO BE MADE BASED ON WHERE LES DOES ACTUALLY
SET UP AS MODELS ARE HAVING A TOUGH TIME DISCERNING THE LOCATION AND
TIMING OF THE STRONGEST CONVERGENCE AREAS. REGARDLESS...EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING AS DRIER AIR BEGINS
TO MOVE IN. SIMILAR STORY AT SAW...WITH FAVORABLE N WINDS AND
CURRENT IFR CONDITIONS. AS WINDS CONTINUE TO SHIFT TO A LESS FAVORED
NW DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO BE ON THE
IMPROVING TREND THROUGH THE NIGHT. KCMX WILL SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR
CONTINUED LES AS WELL...HOWEVER N/NNW WIND DIRECTION SHOULD BE LESS
FAVORABLE FOR ANY MAIN CONCERNS BELOW MVFR.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 521 AM EST FRI FEB 24 2012

ACTIVE WEATHER EXPECTED THRU THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH A
PROGRESSIVE REGIME BRINGING A SERIES OF LOW PRES AND HIGH PRES
SYSTEMS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. DEEPENING LOW PRES HEADING
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO NEW ENGLAND WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
NORTHERLY WINDS TO 15-25KT TODAY AND TONIGHT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
FROM W TO E SAT/SAT NIGHT AS HIGH PRES RIDGE ARRIVES. ALREADY BY
LATE SAT NIGHT WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AGAIN OVER WRN LAKE
SUPERIOR IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT LOW PRES SYSTEM MOVING OUT OVER THE
NRN PLAINS. WINDS SHOULD INCREASE UP TO 30KT SUN AS THE LOW
APPROACHES. WITH THE LOW WEAKENING AS IT PASSES...WINDS ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM MON WON`T BE AS STRONG...15-25KT SUN NIGHT
INTO EARLY MON. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH INTO TUE AS HIGH
PRES ARRIVES. WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AGAIN WED AS THE NEXT
LOW PRES SYSTEM APPROACHES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST /10 AM CST/ SATURDAY FOR
MIZ002-009.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...JLA
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...JMW
MARINE...ROLFSON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI

1230 PM EST FRI FEB 24 2012

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1045 AM EST FRI FEB 24 2012

I HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST PRODUCTS TO EXPAND THE WARNING
NORTHEAST TO INCLUDE OSCEOLA AND CLARE COUNTIES. WE HAVE RECEIVED
RELIABLE (THEY SENT PICTURES) REPORTS OF 10 TO 12 INCHES IN A
BAND FROM EVART TO HARRISON BY 8 AM. THE SNOW CONTINUES TO FALL
ACROSS THAT AREA AND SHOULD INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SO IT MAKES
SENSE TO INCLUDE THEM IN A WARNING.

ELSEWHERE AND OTHERWISE THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK. THE
DEFORMATION SNOW BANDS HAVE ROTATE SE INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL
COUNTIES OF SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. THE HRRR SUGGEST BY NOON
MOST OF THE MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW WILL HAVE ENDED AND ONLY AND
INCH OR TWO SHOULD FALL THIS AFTERNOON.

LAKE EFFECT WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND I COULD SEE 2 TO 4
INCHES FROM THAT TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WE MAY HAVE TO
EXPAND HEADLINES IN OUR SW MOST COUNTIES FOR THAT.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 441 AM EST FRI FEB 24 2012

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH THE LOW MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
OHIO VALLEY. CHANGES TO THE FORECAST MAINLY INCLUDE DELAYING THE
STEADIER SNOWFALL UNTIL THIS MORNING AND TRIMMING ACCUMS A BIT.
THIS HAS RESULTED IN THE DOWNGRADE OF THE WARNING TO AN ADVISORY
FOR THE SRN TIER OF COUNTIES.

LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
OVER THE CWA. WE/VE ALREADY HAD A REPORT OF 2 INCHES IN AN HOUR
OVER THE NRN CWA. THIS IS A TYPICAL FGEN EVENT THAT IS SLOW TO
DEVELOP AND FEATURES MANY HOLES IN THE RADAR COVERAGE. HOWEVER THE
SHORT WAVE DRIVING THIS IS STRENGTHEN AND WE SHOULD SEE HEAVIER
SNOW BETWEEN NOW AND LATE MORNING. MODELS SHOW STRONG UVV/S IN
THE DGZ EARLY THIS MORNING. THUS...THE MORNING COMMUTE SHOULD BE
HEAVILY IMPACTED. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE FAR SE CWA WHERE
SNOWFALL MAY NOT BE AS MUCH AS EARLIER EXPECTED.

THE TROWAL IS SETTING UP FROM OTTAWA COUNTY NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD
SAGINAW BAY AND THIS SHOULD BE WHERE THE AXIS OF HEAVY SNOW
DEVELOPS. I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AREAS THAT SEE TOTAL
ACCUMS AROUND 3 INCHES AND AREAS THAT SEE 8 INCHES ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CWA.

REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW EXTENDING SWWD TO NW
ILLINOIS. GIVEN THE SLOWER DEVELOPMENT OF THE EVENT...WE EXTENDED
THE HEADLINES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE NRN ROW OF COUNTIES WILL
SEE TOTAL ACCUMS IN THE 3-6 INCH RANGE.

AS THE LOW MOVES EAST THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...THE FGEN SNOW WILL
DIMINISH AND LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL DEVELOP. H8 TEMPS APPEAR
MARGINAL FOR LAKE EFFECT BUT MOISTURE IS FAIRLY DEEP AND SO THE
TRADITIONAL NW FLOW AREAS COULD SEE 2 OR 3 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL TONIGHT/SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 441 AM EST FRI FEB 24 2012

THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE A SFC LOW TRACKING FROM THE NRN PLAINS
ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. MOST OF
THE PCPN WITH THIS SYSTEM FALLS NEAR AND NORTH OF THE LOW TRACK SO
WILL CARRY ONLY LOW CHANCE POPS FOR A FEW LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
IN NRN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA.

A VARIETY OF WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FROM A SLOW MOVING SYSTEM THAT
IS PROGGED TO TRACK FROM NEBRASKA TO MICHIGAN FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY... THEN INTO NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY.

STRONG WARM ADVECTION AND GULF MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF THE SFC LOW
SHOULD RESULT IN A MIXTURE OF WINTRY PCPN DEVELOPING TUESDAY OR
TUESDAY EVENING... FOLLOWED BY A QUICK CHANGEOVER TO PRIMARILY RAIN
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING.

STRONG COLD ADVECTION COMING AROUND THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE LOW AS IT
TRACKS INTO NRN LWR MI WILL BRING A CHANGEOVER BACK TO SNOW SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE
THURSDAY IN THE PERSISTENT CYCLONIC COLD ADVECTION PATTERN ON THE
BACK SIDE AS THE SFC LOW HEADS INTO NEW ENGLAND.

NO SIGNIFICANT SNOW IS EXPECTED BUT THERE COULD BE OVER A HALF INCH
OF RAIN IN SRN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA TUESDAY NIGHT AS STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET AND PWAT VALUES OVER ONE INCH IMPACT THE REGION.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM EST FRI FEB 24 2012

WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AT 17Z WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR THIS
AFTERNOON AS SNOW DIMINISHES TO FLURRIES. NW WINDS WILL GUST TO NEAR
25 KTS AT TIMES THIS AFTN/EARLY EVE. CONDITIONS WILL STAY MVFR
TONIGHT DUE TO EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT FOG. IN ADDITION WNW
FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CAUSE IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES
OVERNIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY AT KMKG... KAZO AND POSSIBLE KGRR
AND KBTL DUE TO WEST TO WNW WINDS STAYING UP AROUND 10-15 KTS
OVERNIGHT.

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 441 AM EST FRI FEB 24 2012

KEPT THE SCA GOING MAINLY FOR WINDS TODAY. AFTER THE LOW MOVES
PAST THIS AFTERNOON AND WINDS BACK TO THE NORTHWEST...WAVES WILL
INCREASE.

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 441 PM EST THU FEB 23 2012

TEMPS IN THE 30S DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL LIMIT THE MELTING
OF THE SNOW THAT FALLS TODAY. AS SUCH...RIVERS WILL BE SLOWER TO
RESPOND AND SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ACTION STAGE.

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MIZ039-
040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MIZ037-038-071>074.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

UPDATE...WDM
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM....MEADE
AVIATION...LAURENS
MARINE...93

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS MARQUETTE MI

1127 AM EST FRI FEB 24 2012

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1126 AM EST FRI FEB 24 2012

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 521 AM EST FRI FEB 24 2012

DRIER AIR...LOWERING INVERSION AND INCREASINGLY ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AS
WINDS BACK WILL LEAD TO DIMINISHING LES SAT. WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND
-14C...PROBABLY WON`T SEE LES COMPLETELY END SAT AFTN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 521 AM EST FRI FEB 24 2012

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 628 AM EST FRI FEB 24 2012

INCREASING NRLY FLOW/COOLER AIR WILL BRING LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW DURING THIS FCST PERIOD. KIWD SHOULD BE MOST AFFECTED
AS APPROACHING MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED SFC TROF FOCUS
SNOW INTO FAR WRN UPPER MI. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO START AT KIWD
TO DROP TO IFR AT TIMES IN THE NEXT FEW HRS AS WINDS SHIFT OFF THE
LAKE. CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN SETTLE TO MVFR BEFORE DROPPING TO
PREVAILING IFR LATER IN THE AFTN THRU TONIGHT AS TROF/CONVERGENT
FLOW SET UP ACROSS WRN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO FAR WRN UPPER MI. AT
KCMX...MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD MOSTLY PREVAIL THOUGH SOME PERIODS OF
IFR ARE POSSIBLE. AT KSAW...INCREASINGLY NORTHERLY FLOW/UPSLOPE
WILL BRING LOWER MVFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH -SHSN BECOMING MORE
FREQUENT. SOME PERIODS OF IFR ARE POSSIBLE. SLIGHT BACKING OF WINDS
TONIGHT SHOULD RESULT IN IMPROVING VIS AS MORE PERSISTENT/HEAVIER
SNOW SHOWERS SHIFT E.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 521 AM EST FRI FEB 24 2012

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON
TO 11 AM EST /10 AM CST/ SATURDAY FOR MIZ002-009.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...JLA
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI

1045 AM EST FRI FEB 24 2012

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1045 AM EST FRI FEB 24 2012

LAKE EFFECT WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND I COULD SEE 2 TO 4
INCHES FROM THAT TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WE MAY HAVE TO
EXPAND HEADLINES IN OUR SW MOST COUNTIES FOR THAT.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 441 AM EST FRI FEB 24 2012

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 441 AM EST FRI FEB 24 2012

A VARIETY OF WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FROM A SLOW MOVING SYSTEM THAT
IS PROGGED TO TRACK FROM NEBRASKA TO MICHIGAN FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY... THEN INTO NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY.

NO SIGNIFICANT SNOW IS EXPECTED BUT THERE COULD BE OVER A HALF INCH
OF RAIN IN SRN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA TUESDAY NIGHT AS STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET AND PWAT VALUES OVER ONE INCH IMPACT THE REGION.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 653 AM EST FRI FEB 24 2012

WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW THIS MORNING... WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO MVFR THIS AFTERNOON AS SNOW DIMINISHES.
GUSTY NE SFC WINDS TO 25 KTS THIS MORNING BECOMING NW THIS
AFTERNOON. SOME IFR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING AFTER 03Z
TONIGHT FOR MKG/AZO... POSSIBLY GRR/BTL AS WELL. MEANWHILE VFR
EXPECTED FARTHER EAST AT LAN AND JXN TONIGHT.

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 441 AM EST FRI FEB 24 2012

KEPT THE SCA GOING MAINLY FOR WINDS TODAY. AFTER THE LOW MOVES
PAST THIS AFTERNOON AND WINDS BACK TO THE NORTHWEST...WAVES WILL
INCREASE.

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 441 PM EST THU FEB 23 2012

TEMPS IN THE 30S DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL LIMIT THE MELTING
OF THE SNOW THAT FALLS TODAY. AS SUCH...RIVERS WILL BE SLOWER TO
RESPOND AND SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ACTION STAGE.

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MIZ039-
040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MIZ037-
038-071>074.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

UPDATE...WDM
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM....MEADE
AVIATION...MEADE
MARINE...93

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

629 AM EST FRI FEB 24 2012

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 521 AM EST FRI FEB 24 2012

DRIER AIR...LOWERING INVERSION AND INCREASINGLY ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AS
WINDS BACK WILL LEAD TO DIMINISHING LES SAT. WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND
-14C...PROBABLY WON`T SEE LES COMPLETELY END SAT AFTN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 521 AM EST FRI FEB 24 2012

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 628 AM EST FRI FEB 24 2012

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 521 AM EST FRI FEB 24 2012

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON
TO 11 AM EST /10 AM CST/ SATURDAY FOR MIZ002-009.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

523 AM EST FRI FEB 24 2012

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 521 AM EST FRI FEB 24 2012

DRIER AIR...LOWERING INVERSION AND INCREASINGLY ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AS
WINDS BACK WILL LEAD TO DIMINISHING LES SAT. WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND
-14C...PROBABLY WON`T SEE LES COMPLETELY END SAT AFTN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 521 AM EST FRI FEB 24 2012

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1220 AM EST FRI FEB 24 2012

LIGHT NORTHERLY CONVERGENT WINDS MAY RESULT IN OCCASIONAL IFR
CONDITIONS IN LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW AT KSAW THROUGH 10Z...ALTHOUGH
SNOW SHOULD DIMINISH TO FLURRIES THEREAFTER. A LIGHT NRLY FLOW AND
MARGINAL OVER-WATER INSTABILITY SHOULD CONTINUE MVFR CONDITIONS AT
KSAW AND KCMX THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY EVENING. AT
KIWD...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GIVE WAY TO IFR CONDITIONS BY
LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW-LVL CONVERGENCE INCREASES AND
ENHANCEMENT OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS POSSIBLE FROM UPPER DISTURBANCE
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 521 AM EST FRI FEB 24 2012

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON
TO 11 AM EST /10 AM CST/ SATURDAY FOR MIZ002-009.

LAKE SUPERIOR...NONE.

LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE.

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...ROLFSON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI

1246 AM EST FRI FEB 24 2012

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 935 PM EST THU FEB 23 2012
BASICALLY MOVED THE TOTAL SNOWFALL NORTHWARD. A WINTER STORM
WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL COUNTIES BUT THE NRN ROW...WHERE
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 945 PM EST THU FEB 23 2012

THE GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO SHOW THE TROWAL ORIENTED ENE FROM THE
MKG/GRAND HAVEN AREA TO SAGINAW BAY. THE HRRR PCPN FIELDS ALSO
POINT TO THIS. LOOKING AT THE LATEST IR IMAGERY...THE SRN EDGE OF
THE COLDER CLOUD TOPS LINE UP WITH WHERE THE MODELS INDICATE THE
TROWAL WILL SET UP. ALL OF THIS SUGGESTS TO ME THAT THE MAX
SNOWFALL WILL BE A BIT FARTHER NORTH THAN WHERE WE EARLIER
THOUGHT. AS SUCH...WE ADDED SOME WARNING HEADLINES TO COVER THE
CWA EXCEPT FOR THE FAR NRN ROW...WHERE WE ADDED AN ADVISORY.

MAX FGEN WILL SET UP OVER THE CENTRAL CWA AND A GENERAL 5-9 INCH
SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED. HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WILL LIKELY BEGIN AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THIS SNOW WILL BE A
WET/HEAVY SNOW AND WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE MORNING COMMUTE. THE
PCPN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON.

AFTER THE UPPER UPPER LOW MOVES EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON... THAT ALLOWS THE BETTER COLD ADVECTION TO BEGIN. WITH
CYCLONIC FLOW... 850 MB TMPS BELOW -10C MOVING IN WITH DEEP
MOISTURE ON NORTHWEST WINDS... LAKE EFFECT SNOW DEVELOPS AND
CONTINUES THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE BEST SNOWFALL FOR THIS WILL BE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ANOTHER 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
WITH THAT IN THE TYPICAL NW FLOW AREAS. THIS TIME THROUGH THE AIR
TEMP WILL BE BELOW FREEZING SO THIS SNOW WILL BE MORE OF A FLUFFY
SNOW. ONCE AGAIN THERE IS GOOD LIFT IN THE DGZ BUT THE BEST LIFT
IS ACTUALLY BELOW THE DGZ SO THIS WILL NOT BE AS FLUFFY AS SOME
LAKE EFFECT EVENTS HAVE BEEN.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM EST THU FEB 23 2012

LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY MORNING WILL END IN THE
AFTERNOON AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES ANTICYCLONIC. DRY WEATHER IS
FORECAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH UPPER RIDGING IN PLACE.

AT THIS TIME WE WILL MAINTAIN VERY LOW POPS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE SUPERIOR REGION.
HOWEVER IT IS NOTED THAT OVERALL MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE TRENDS KEEP
LIGHT QPF TIED TO THIS SYSTEM NORTH OF OUR FCST AREA... SO FUTURE
SHIFTS MAY BE ABLE TO GO WITH A DRY FCST SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY.

A BETTER CHC FOR PCPN SHOULD COME FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT
WEEK AS A SOUTHERN PLAINS LOW TRACKS ENE INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
REGION BY TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. LIGHT PCPN MAY ARRIVE AS EARLY AS
TUESDAY PRECEDING THAT SYSTEM... BUT THE BETTER CHC FOR PCPN SHOULD
HOLD OFF UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS SUGGESTED BY 12Z ECMWF
GUIDANCE.

TRENDED THE MAX TEMP FCST A BIT MILDER FOR WEDNESDAY WITH POTENTIAL
FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX. TEMPS SHOULD AVG NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE LONG RANGE FCST PERIOD.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1246 AM EST FRI FEB 24 2012
A LONG DURATION SNOW EVENT IS UNDERWAY THAT WILL RESULT IN VARYING
CIGS/VSBYS. EXPECT IFR/LIFR FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH VSYBS MOSTLY
AROUND A MILE...BUT AT TIMES DOWN TO A HALF MILE AND UP TO 3 MILES.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 415 PM EST THU FEB 23 2012

I HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO THE INCREASING NORTH
WINDS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO
15 TO 25 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY BEFORE
DIMINISHING DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 415 PM EST THU FEB 23 2012

THERE ARE NO WARNINGS OR ADVIOSRIES IN EFFECT FOR AREA RIVERS OR
STREAMS. TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO GET COLD ENOUGH FOR ICE
JAMS TO BE AN ISSUE. METLING OF THE SNOW THAT FALLS SHOULD BE SLOW
ENOUGH TO NOT BE MUCH OF AN ISSUE EITHER.

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY FOR MIZ043>046-
050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY FOR MIZ037>040.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

UPDATE...93
SHORT TERM...WDM 93
LONG TERM....LAURENS
AVIATION...93
MARINE...WDM
HYDROLOGY...WDM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

1221 AM EST FRI FEB 24 2012

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 423 PM EST THU FEB 23 2012

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
FROM MANITOBA AND NRN ONTARIO INTO THE SRN PLAINS. A VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH SRN NEBRASKA SUPPORTED A BAND OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW OVER SE SD INTO NRN IA AND RAIN TO THE EAST.
AN UPSTREAM SHRTWV NEAR LAKE WINNIPEG WAS BRINGING MAINLY JUST LIGHT
SNOW OR FLURRIES IN SRN MANITOBA AND NW ONTARIO. AT THE SFC...A 990
MB LOW WAS LOCATED OVER SE MO WHILE A WEAKER 1002 MB LOW MOVING
THROUGH SE MANITOBA. A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDED FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
UPPER MI LEAVING VERY LIGHT WINDS OVER THE AREA. WITH PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE THE WEAK NNE FLOW COMBINED WITH 850 MB TEMPS
AROUND -9C WAS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS INTO N
CNTRL UPPER MI.

EXPECT AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES TO PERSIST INTO THIS
EVENING CNTRL AND WEST WITH THE TROUGH OVER THE AREA AND WEAK FLOW
OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD ONLY AMOUNT TO A
TRACE OR A FEW TENTHS. AS THE MANITOBA SHRTWV MOVES TOWARD THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...MID LEVEL QVECTOR CONV ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURES WILL SUPPORT AN EXPANDING AREA OF LIGHT SNOW FROM NE
MN INTO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AND WEST UPPER MI. SINCE THE NNW WINDS LOW
LEVEL WINDS FCST REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT THERE IS STILL SIGNIFICANT
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE LAKE ENHANCED SNOW POTENTIAL INTO WEST
UPPER MI AS THE HIGH RES MODELS SHOW DIFFERING SCENARIOS. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SNOW OVER THE WEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES AND COLDER AIR MOVES IN WITH 850 MB TEMPS
DROP TO NEAR -12C. IF STRONGER LOW LEVEL CONV OR ONSHORE WINDS
DEVELOP SNOW AMOUNTS OF A COUPLE INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE BY EVENING.
SCT -SHSN SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP OVER THE REST OF NRN UPPER MI AS NRLY
WINDS INCREASE. HOWEVER...SINCE THE DEEPER MOISTURE REMAINS TO THE
WEST...ONLY CHANCE POPS WERE INCLUDED.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 423 PM EST THU FEB 23 2012

FRI NGT...A CYC NLY FLOW WL DOMINATE THE UPR GRT LKS AS A SHRTWV
DIGGING SEWD THRU MN MAINTAINS LOWER HGTS/HIER MID LVL RH OVER THE
UPR LKS. ALTHOUGH THE FCST H85 TEMPS IN THE -12C TO -14C ARE NOT
PARTICULARLY COLD...OPTED TO MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS IN AREAS FAVORED
BY THE NNW LLVL FLOW GIVEN THE DEEP MSTR PROFILE. WENT WITH THE
HIER POPS OVER THE W CLOSER TO THE TRACK OF THE MN DISTURBANCE.

SAT...EXPECT LINGERING LES IN THE MRNG TO DIMINISH WITH THE APRCH OF
SHRTWV RDG IN PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALF AND ARRIVAL OF RISING H5 UP TO
100M BTWN 12Z-24Z/SFC HI PRES IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING SHRTWV.
ALTHOUGH FCST LLVL NW FLOW IS FAVORABLE FOR LES IN AREAS E OF MQT...
MODELS CONSISTENTLY SHOW DRY AIR IN ONTARIO PASSING OVER ERN LK SUP
AND LIMITING SN CHCS OVER THE ERN CWA. SO CUT POPS/SN AMOUNTS SHOWN
IN PREVIOUS FCSDT.

SAT NGT...ALTHOUGH A FEW -SHSN MAY LINGER NEAR LK SUP IN THE EVNG...
BACKING FLOW TO THE SSW OVERNGT WITH PASSAGE OF RDG AXIS TO THE E
AND APRCH OF STRONG SHRTWV/SFC LO THRU THE NRN PLAINS WL PUSH ANY
REMAINING -SHSN OUT INTO THE OPEN LAKE. WITH SOME CLRG/LGT WINDS
UNDER THE RDG AXIS/PWAT ARND 0.15 INCH...TEMPS OVER THE INTERIOR MAY
FALL SHARPLY IN THE EVNG BEFORE THICKENING HI/MID CLDS RETURN LATE
WITH DVLPG ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF THE INCOMING SHRTWV/SFC LO AND
CAUSE READINGS TO RISE LATER. TENDED TOWARD THE LO END OF GUIDANCE
FOR MIN TEMPS IN THIS AREA WITH A NON DIURNAL TEMP TREND.

SUN/SUN NGT...MODELS HAVE TRENDED A BIT FASTER WITH THE INCOMING
FCST LO PRES AS SUPPORTING SHRTWV IS FCST TO SHEAR OUT AS IT MOVES
INTO CONFLUENCE ZN BTWN MEAN RDG OVER THE SE CONUS AND PERSISTENT
WNW FLOW ALF OVER NE CAN ON SW FLANK OF CLOSED LO NEAR THE DAVIS
STRAIT. ALTHOUGH THE 12Z GFS SHOWS A MORE SHEARED OUT/WEAKER
DISTURBANCE WHILE THE CNDN MODEL DEPICTS A DEEPER SYS...VARIOUS
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE LO PRES TRACK ACRS THE NRN
TIER OF THE CWA/SRN LK SUP. THIS TRACK SHOULD MINIMIZE THE THREAT OF
SGNFT SN ACCUM OVER THE FA WITH MORE PERSISTENT DEEPER FGEN UNDER
DEFORMATION ZN PASSING TO THE W AND N AND POTENTIAL DRY SLOTTING
ESPECIALL OVER THE SRN TIER CLOSER TO SUPPORTING JET CORE AXIS.
HOWEVER...COMBINATION OF FAIRLY SHARP UPR DVGC IN LEFT EXIT OF
SUPPORTING H3 JET MAX/FAIRLY VIGOROUS ISENTROPIC ASCENT SHOWN ON THE
285K SFC /ABOUT H75/ IN THE WAD PATTERN N OF ATTENDANT WARM FNT/DEEP
LYR QVECTOR CNVGC WARRANT FCST HI LIKELY POPS SPREADING IN BY AFTN.
GIVEN FCST H7 SPECIFIC HUMIDITY OF 2 G/KG...SUSPECT UP TO 2 TO 4
INCHES OF SN MAY FALL OVER THE NW CWA ON SUN...ESPECIALLY SINCE GFS
FCST SDNGS SHOW SHARP OMEGA WITHIN THE DGZ IN THAT AREA. EXPECT THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE PCPN TO DIMINISH TO LES W-E BY EARLY MON MORNING
WITH LARGE SCALE QVECTOR DVGC/DRYING FOLLOWING THE SHRTWV/SFC LO.
SINCE THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR ADVY SN WITH THIS DISTURBANCE...OPTED
TO RETAIN MENTION IN HWO.

IN THE EXTENDED RANGE...SOME LES IS LIKELY ON MON UNDER THE MOIST
NNW FLOW LEFT IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LO THRU SE CAN AND WITH
H85 TEMPS PROGGED TO DIP AS LO AS -15C. THE ARRIVAL OF A HI PRES RDG
WL BRING QUIET WX ON TUE. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE/SFC LO MOVING IS FCST
TO MOVE THRU THE OH VALLEY ON WED. THERE HAS BEEN CONSIDERABLE MODEL
DISAGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF THIS SHRTWV...SO RELIED ON THE
CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS FOR THE FORECAST IN THAT PERIOD. BEST SHOT
FOR ANY ACCOMPANYING SN WL BE OVER THE S. WITH HI PRES FOLLOWING
THIS SYSTEM NEXT THU...EXPECT A DRYING TREND THEN. SINCE THE
PREVAILING ZONAL FLOW ALF THRU THE EXTENDED PERIOD WL LIMIT ARCTIC
AIR INTRUSION INTO THE CONUS...EXPECT ABV NORMAL TEMPS TO PERSIST.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1220 AM EST FRI FEB 24 2012

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 423 PM EST THU FEB 23 2012
NRLY WINDS INCREASING INTO THE 15 TO 25 KT RANGE ARE EXPECTED LATE
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE GRADIENT INCREASES IN THE WAKE OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVING TOWARD THE SRN GREAT LAKES. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WILL
ALSO BRING A PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS. SE WINDS TO 30 KT ARE
EXPECTED IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW ON SUN. AS THE LOW MOVES TO THE EAST
OF THE AREA MONDAY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT ARE ALSO
EXPECTED.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...JLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

410 PM CST FRI FEB 24 2012

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE REGION THIS
AFTN HAS JUST ABOUT CLEARED MN AND IS ENTERING NRN IA AND SW WI.
BANDS OF -SHSN DRIFTING SE THROUGH CENTRAL-SOUTHERN MN...MOST OF
WHICH IS NOT REACHING THE GROUND BUT WHERE IT HAS BEEN REPORTED IT
HAS BEEN BRIEFLY MODERATE. THE OVERALL MASS OF PRECIP WILL SHIFT E
THROUGH THE EVENING AND EARLY MRNG HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING BY
DAYBREAK SAT MRNG. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH...
LIKELY HARDLY ANYTHING MORE THAN A DUSTING WITH SUCH DRY LOWER
LEVELS /DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE GENERALLY 10-15 DEGREES F/. THE
CDFNT IS BEING USHERED ALONG BY A CLOSED UPPER LOW NEAR KINL THAT
WILL SHIFT SE AND DEGENERATE INTO AN OPEN TROUGH. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR CAA TO KICK IN ALONG WITH BRINGING IN ADDITIONAL DRIER AIR
WITH GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES LATE TONIGHT THRU TMRW. TEMPS TNGT
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS. AS SHARP
UPPER RIDGING MOVES ACRS THE AREA TMRW...CAA WILL CONTINUE WHILE
THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY WILL SEE AT LEAST PARTIALLY CLEARING
SKIES. SOME CONFLICTING MODEL INFORMATION AS TO HOW MUCH CLEARING
WILL TAKE PLACE THRU THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY...BUT WILL PLAY A
MIDDLE-OF-THE-ROAD FCST AND GO WITH PTLY CLDY. HIGHS WILL REBOUND
TO THE MID TO UPR 20S.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...AS UPPER RIDGING MOVES INTO THE
GREAT LAKES SAT EVENING...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A SYSTEM MOVING
IN OFF THE PACIFIC WILL INFILTRATE THE AREA SAT EVENING. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN GET CAUGHT UP WITH A MODEST UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
NRN PLAINS AND THE COMBINATION WILL E THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND NRN
MN SUNDAY AND INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES SUN NIGHT. THE LACK OF A
GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE SOURCE WILL KEEP THE SOURCE MOISTURE OF
THIS SYSTEM ON THE NRN SIDE...MEANING THAT NRN MN WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR HEAVIER SNOWFALL. THAT SAID...THERE WILL STILL BE A
SWATH OF 1-3 INCH SNOWFALL FOR THE NRN 2/3 OF THE WFO MPX CWFA FOR
SUN INTO SUN NIGHT. IN ADDITION...WARMER AIR BEING BROUGHT UP ON
THE SRN SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM MAY CONVERT THE PRECIP TO A RAIN/SNOW
MIX...OR EVEN ALL RAIN...FOR A PERIOD OF TIME SUN AFTN WHICH WOULD
SQUELCH HIGHER SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS. THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN EJECT
INTO THE GREAT LAKES SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY...ALLOWING HIGH
PRESSURE TO DROP IN FROM SRN CANADA IN CONJUNCTION WITH UPPER
RIDGING AND ANOTHER BOUT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION. HIGHS IN THE MID
30S TO AROUND 40 ON SUNDAY WILL DROP TO THE 20-30 RANGE ON MONDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST STILL
BEARS THE MOST WATCHING AS IT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE QUITE
ACTIVE. A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS WILL EXPAND AND
PIVOT OVER THE ROCKIES...CONTRIBUTING TO STRONG CYCLOGENESIS OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AS THE TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED...IT
WILL SHOVE A DEEPENING SFC LOW PRES CENTER FROM CO/NE INTO SD/SRN
MN. FOR THIS SYSTEM...THE GULF OF MEXICO IS OPEN FOR BUSINESS...
SO TO SPEAK...BRINGING A DEEP TAP OF MOISTURE UP TO THE NRN PLAINS
AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM. WHAT
IS VERY TRICKY IS THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS/GEM CAMP HAS
SHIFTED THE TRACK FURTHER N...WHICH WOULD SUPPRESS SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS AND EVEN BRING A RAIN-SNOW-DRY SLOT-SNOW PATTERN TO THE
AREA FOR THIS SYSTEM. THE MORE SRN TRACK OF THE ECMWF WOULD BRING
HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS TO SRN MN INTO WRN WI. ALL MODELS OUTPUT OVER
1 INCH QPF ALONG WITH A MSLP NEAR 980MB...SO THE POTENTIAL IS
THERE FOR HIGH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE BANDS.
HAVE NUDGED POPS INTO THE 60-70 PERCENT RANGE BECAUSE THERE IS
HIGH CONFIDENCE OF PRECIP OCCURRENCE...BUT THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE
AT THIS POINT OF P-TYPE AND PRECIP AMOUNT WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE
SYSTEM WILL LIFT NE INTO THE GREAT LAKES WED...ALLOWING A BRIEF
RESPITE FOR WED NIGHT AHEAD OF A WEAK WAVE PUSHING THROUGH THE
REGION THU THAT COULD PRODUCE ADDITIONAL MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATION.

.AVIATION.../18Z TAF ISSUANCE/

COMBINATION OF CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD AIR ALOFT HAS RESULTED IN
PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. IN ADDITION...
STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES HELPING TO GENERATE SOME
FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWS...WHICH THE HRRR HAS CONTINUING ALL THE WAY
OUT TO 03Z...THOUGH THROUGH 00Z IS WHEN -SN WILL BE MOST LIKELY.
CIGS ARE STRADDLING THE MVFR CATEGORY THIS AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD
STAY HIGH MVFR/LOW VFR. MVFR CIGS MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH CLOUDS
COMING DOWN FROM ERN NODAK/NW MN...AND EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN
MAINLY VFR UNTIL THESE CLOUDS SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA. AFTER
THAT...WILL BE A SLOW GO TO KICK CLOUDS OUT TONIGHT. NAM/GFS
SIMILAR WITH BRINGING LOW LEVEL RIDGE IN TO FAR WRN MN AROUND
12Z...WITH CLEARING SLOWLY WORKING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
MORNING/AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY. DELAYED IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR BY A
FEW HOURS AT MN TERMINALS...WITH MVFR CIGS LIKELY HANGING ON AT WI
TERMINALS UNTIL AFTER 18Z SATURDAY. FOR WINDS...EXPECT GUSTS TO
CONTINUE UNTIL 00Z...BEFORE FALLING OFF. WINDS WILL REMAIN AOA 10
KTS HOWEVER THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT UNTIL SFC RIDGE SLACKENS
THEM OFF AND STARTS TO TURN THEM MORE WRLY ACROSS MN SAT MORNING.

KMSP...WATCHING -SHSN DROPPING SE FROM CENTRAL MN THIS AFTERNOON
AND SHOULD GIVE US BOUTS OF MVFR CIGS A POSSIBLY IFR VSBYS AS THE
SHOWERS PASS. EXISTING TEMPO GROUP COVERED THE THREAT WELL. DO NOT
EXPECT LOWER CLOUDS TO IMPROVE UNTIL BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z SATURDAY.
30 KT GUST APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN A ONE HIT WONDER AND EXPECT NW
WINDS TO GUST TO BETWEEN 22 AND 26 KTS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON. WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH A WIND SHIFT LATE IN THE PERIOD
AS SFC RIDGE WORKS THROUGH.

//OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SATURDAY NIGHT...MVFR POSSIBLE LAT WITH CHANCE OF SN.
.SUNDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE WITH CHANCE OF RA/SN.
.MONDAY...VFR
.TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MVFR TO IFR POSSIBLE IN RA/SN AS
SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM POTENTIALLY IMPACTS THE REGION.

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

JPC/MPG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

1157 AM CST FRI FEB 24 2012

.UPDATE...

18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION ADDED BELOW.

.DISCUSSION...

NEXT SEVERAL DAYS CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THEY WILL REMAIN ACTIVE AS
TWO STRONG SYSTEMS BY THIS WINTER`S STANDARDS AFFECT THE AREA. THE
FIRST WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY WITH THE NEXT STRONGER SYSTEM ON TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.

IN THE SHORT TERM PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS BEEN TIGHTENING OVERNIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE IN OHIO VALLEY LIFTS NORTHEAST ALLOWING NORTHERLY WINDS
TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA. COLD ADVECTION AND MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES
WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURE RISES TODAY WITH MOST AREAS NOT SEEING
AFTERNOON TEMPS MUCH DIFFERENT THAN CURRENT READINGS. N-S BAND OF
-SN CURRENTLY PUSHING ACROSS E MN AHEAD OF UPPER TROF WILL PUSH
ACROSS WC WI NEXT FEW HOURS PRODUCING PERHAPS A HALF INCH OF SNOW.
WEAK WAVES COMING DOWN IN NW FLOW WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE OF PERIODS OF
-SN THRU THE DAY WITH LITTLE IF ANY ACCUM.

FOR TONIGHT NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ADVANCES ACROSS THE DKTS
INTO W MN BRINGING SOME CHILLY TEMPS WITH SOME SINGLE DIGITS
POSSIBLE. CONTINUED GRADIENT AND SOME CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS IN
THE TEENS ELSEWHERE.

SOUTHERLY FLOWS DEVELOPS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AS UPSTREAM SYSTEM
NOW OFF THE B.C.COAST MOVES ACROSS THE N ROCKIES INTO NORTHERN
PLAINS. MODELS PRETTY MUCH IN AGREEMENT IN BRINGING THIS PACIFIC
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS CENTRAL MN DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY
KEEPING MAIN SNOW TOTALS TO OUR NORTH. SYSTEM STARTS OUT FAIRLY DRY
WITH PWATS LESS THAN .20 AND DOESN`T DEVELOP A GOOD GULF TAP...WITH
VALUES RISING TO .30 TO .40 ON SUNDAY. ENUF WARM AIR PULLED NORTH
THAT A -RA/-SN MIX LOOKS FAIRLY LIKELY IN LOW QPF AREA SOUTH OF
SURFACE LOW IN S AREAS. AROUND 8C 200 MB WAA CROSS N MN WOULD IMPLY
4-6 INCHES OF SNOW. WILL TREND SNOW AMOUNTS FROM THE 4 INCH RANGE
ACROSS N CWA TO NEAR ZERO ALONG IA BORDER. MAY END UP WITH WINTER
WX ADVYS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS WC AND CENTRAL MN FOR COMBO OF
SNOW AND WIND WITH MODELS ALL DEVELOPING TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
BEHIND SURFACE LOW.

A BREAK IN ACTION FOR MONDAY BEFORE DEEPENING S PLAINS LOW LIFTS
NORTHEAST TOWARD AREA AS ASSOCIATED UPPER TROF BECOMES NEGATIVE IN
ITS APPROACH TOWARD OUR AREA ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. ATTM GFS
AND ECMWF OPERATIONAL RUNS TRACK SURFACE LOW OUT OF NW IA THEN
ACROSS EXTREME SE MN. THIS WOULD FAVOR HEAVY SNOWS ACROSS CENTRAL
MN INTO NW WI AND NE MN. GEM CURRENTLY AN OUTLIER TRACKING SURFACE
LOW MUCH FARTHER WEST. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL OF BEING A
HEAVY SNOW PRODUCER WITH MUCH BETTER GULF FETCH. ANOTHER POTENTIAL
FLY IN OINTMENT IS POSSIBILITY OF RAIN DEVELOPING IN S AREAS ON
TUESDAY WITH WEDGE OF WARM AIR ADVANCING NORTH AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW.

.AVIATION.../18Z TAF ISSUANCE/

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

BAP/MPG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO

1117 PM CST Thu Feb 23 2012

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...

As expected, temperatures soared well into the 60s within the warm
sector early this afternoon, even more so than anticipated with the
earlier update. 20Z surface analysis continued to show a complex
frontal structure with two surface lows extending from near Omaha to
near Moberly, with most of the CWA now located in the post-frontal
airmass. Gusty northwest winds will continue to surge east across
the remainder of the CWA through 00Z, accompanied by extensive
cloud cover and steadily falling temperatures.

Two primary concerns as we head into this evening.

1.) Wind. The RUC13 has done an outstanding job with the
placement/intensity of strong winds across Nebraska/Kansas today,
which justifies my earlier concern with respect to the ongoing wind
advisory. Increasing friction (terrain, trees, etc...) over the
eastern Plains coupled with the loss of daytime heating will both
act against a simple advection of upstream conditions into the
western CWA this evening. Already pushed back the start time of the
wind advisory until 6PM, which looks reasonable given the
juxtaposition of the strongest winds immediately south/southeast of
the digging mid-level trough axis. However, considering both minimal
impacts (after the evening commute) and the aforementioned
meteorology, am concerned that the advisory may no longer be
warranted. Still, we may see both sustained speeds and gusts locally
meet criteria (30/45), and will leave the headline active through
this evening. Still will be a windy/blustery evening regardless,
with 60s giving way to 30s by midnight.

2.) Precipitation. Satellite presentation with the mid level trough
over eastern Nebraska continues to improve this afternoon, and
additional deepening is expected as the wave digs southeast along
the Nebraska/Missouri border overnight. A compact area of vigorous
ascent and diabatic cooling immediately behind the trough, acting as
a small scale deformation band, may affect the far northern tier
counties between 9-10PM and shifting east through the overnight
hours. Given favorable dendritic snow growth profiles, it is
possible that a period of moderate to heavy snow could brush the
Iowa border counties, resulting in minor accumulations. Do expect
Iowa/Illinois to receive the brunt of this evening and for now have
painted an inch across the northern counties, but would not be
surprised if a short-fused advisory became necessary overnight.
Evening hazardous weather outlook will be amended as necessary to
reflect this impact. If concerns #1 and
#2 overlap at some point tonight, we could have an additional issue
with blowing snow/visibilities impacting travel north of highway 36.

Otherwise, gusty winds and strong cold advection will continue into
tomorrow. Previous forecast already reflected undercutting guidance
on temperatures and made no change there. Cyclonic flow will
maintain cloud cover, especially over the northeast half of the CWA
and would not be surprised to see a few sprinkles/flurries from time
to time either.

Return flow comes back in a hurry Saturday afternoon, with winds
increasing over the western CWA. Should see another 10-15 degree
gradient from northeast Missouri to eastern Kansas.

Bookbinder

Medium Range (Sunday through Thursday)...

The focus for the weather over the latter half of the forecast is on
two features; the first a shortwave due to zip east through the
Northern Plains into the Great Lakes Saturday into Sunday; the
second shortwave of note will then follow on quickly through the
Central Plains Monday night through Wednesday.

Leading shortwave, due to pass through the Plains Saturday/Sunday,
will be starved for moisture. A surface high slowly shifting east
along the Gulf Coast will effectively shut off any return moisture
from the Gulf over the weekend. Couple that observation with the
notable speed with which this shortwave jets east through the
Northern Plains, and precipitation of any form for the weekend looks
like a non-issue. Have kept the forecast dry, and boosted afternoon
highs on the expectation of breezy southwest winds. This should put
temperatures for the last day of the weekend into the 50s to low
60s.

After the passage of the weekend leading shortwave, a second wave is
due to pass through the Central Plains during the beginning of the
work week. Sunday`s shortwave, while dry, will have the ultimate
effect of shoving the baroclinic zone a little father south as weak
high pressure oozes into the Northern Plains, pushing afternoon
highs back down towards normal. This results in the second wave
kicking out across the plains form the Four Corners region, zipping
through the Lower Missouri River Valley. At this point the surface
high along the Gulf Coast will have advected east under the
influence of the progressive flow across the nation, leaving the
Gulf open to allow moisture return which the second shortwave will
be able to tap.

This second system has the potential to be significant weather
maker. While models are in decent enough broad agreement on the
general trend of the shortwave to warrant including likely POPs for
part of Tuesday and Tuesday night, preference on the specifics of
shortwave timing are hedged towards the faster ECMWF and GEM
solutions. GFS is the slowest in ejecting the wave, which seems a
bit off given the progressive flow. Anyhow, have limited snow POPs
to the Iowa border region where the coolest air will be, but
otherwise have a mix of rain and rain/snow across the various
forecast periods from Monday night through Wednesday. Did add in
isolated thunder for areas along and south of I-70 owing to some
limited instability present during the afternoon Tuesday.

Cutter

.AVIATION...

For the 06Z TAFS, MVFR ceilings are expected over the next 5 to 6
hours as a storm system moves across southern IA and northern MO.
Cigs should generally be around 2k to 2.5k ft but may temporarily
fall into the 1.5k range as lower ceilings wrap around the back edge
of the system. Skies should scatter out around sunrise but strong
cold advection aloft should result in cigs becoming broken again but
remaining VFR through the afternoon. As the cold air aloft get
shifted east skies should start to scatter or clear out around sunset.

Strong northwesterly winds will continue but will decrease through
the overnight as the pressure gradient weakens. Winds through the
night should still gust in the 20 to 30 kt range, decreasing through
the morning hours. Winds should then become gusty again late in the
morning and into the afternoon hours before diminishing around sunset.

CDB

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

WFO EAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTH PLATTE NE

1200 PM CST FRI FEB 24 2012

.AVIATION...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF A LINE FROM KAIA TO
KLBF. OUTSIDE OF ANY SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
BE THE RULE...BUT MVFR EXPECTED IN SNOW SHOWERS. SFC WINDS WILL BE
W TO NW AT 15 TO 25 KTS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 AM CST FRI FEB 24 2012/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

FAIRLY ACTIVE PATTERN THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK WITH THE SHORT TERM
FOCUS ON FRIDAY WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA WITH CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND WINDY CONDITIONS AGAIN. A
BRIEF WARM UP IS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY...ALONG WITH WINDY
SOUTHERLY WINDS...THEN FOCUS TURNS TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND
WINDS AGAIN ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA.

AT 08Z WATER VAPOR SHOWED THE TROUGH THAT BROUGHT THE STRONG WINDS
TO THE AREA YESTERDAY HAD PUSHED INTO MISSOURI AND ILLINOIS WITH
RIDGING CONTINUING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...KEEPING THE LOCAL AREA
UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW. LOOKING UPSTREAM...IS SOME DARKENING IN THE
WATER VAPOR OVER ALBERTA WHICH IS CONFIRMED BY LOWERED PRESSURE ON
THE 1.5PV SURFACE BY THE RUC ANALYSIS. FURTHER UPSTREAM...A ROBUST
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PACIFIC.
AT THE SURFACE...THE SURFACE LOW HAD MOVED EAST AND WAS OVER
ILLINOIS...WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER COLORADO. WINDS HAD SUBSIDED
OVERNIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXED. LAPS RATES REMAINED
QUITE STEEP AS INDICATED BY LAPS SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA WHICH HAS HELPED TO CONTINUE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
OBSERVATIONS ARE INDICATING CEILINGS MAINLY AT 5K FEET AND RADAR
ECHOES ARE QUITE LIGHT AND NOT STABLE SO DON/T THINK THERE IS
MUCH/IF ANYTHING REACHING THE SURFACE.

FOR TODAY...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT /ABOVE
600MB AS RIDGING SLOWLY BUILDS IN...LAPS RATES BELOW 600MB WILL
REMAIN STEEP /7-8 DEGREES PER KM/ AND AS THE SHORTWAVE OVER
ALBERTA MOVES SOUTHEAST BRINGING SOME EXTRA LIFT ACROSS THE AREA
LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECTING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY EAST OF A PINE RIDGE TO NORTH PLATTE
LINE. THERE ISN/T MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH SO DON/T EXPECT
MUCH/IF ANY FOR ACCUMULATIONS. OTHER CONCERN FOR TODAY IS WINDS.
ALTHOUGH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WON/T YIELD STRONG WINDS...THE
STEEP LAPSE RATES /GOOD MIXING/ WILL LIKELY BRING ABOUT SOME WINDY
CONDITIONS. BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM INDICATE WINDS
AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER THIS AFTERNOON OF 35 TO 45KTS. WHILE
THE GFS IS A BIT HIGHER...UP TO 50KTS AT 700MB. AS THIS ISN/T A
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION/SUBSIDENT REGIME...EVEN THOUGH HAVE THE
STRONG LAPSE RATES...DON/T KNOW IF THOSE WINDS WILL BE ABLE TO BE
MIXED TO THE SURFACE. DID INCREASE WINDS IN THE FORECAST...AND MAY
HAVE A FEW POINTS THAT REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT WITH
CONFIDENCE LESS THAN 50 PERCENT AND IT BEING LOW END AND NOT
WIDESPREAD OPTED TO NOT ISSUE ANY HEADLINES FOR TODAY. DAYSHIFT
CAN MONITOR IF THE WINDS INCREASE TOO MUCH AND IF AN ADVISORY WOULD
BE NEEDED.

THE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PACIFIC WILL PUSH OVER THE RIDGE
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING AT THE SURFACE
ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES OVER MONTANA/WYOMING AND COLORADO.
THIS WILL BRING A BRIEF WINDOW OF RIDGING ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH
WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY. THERE LOOKS TO BE
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...BUT WITH JUST A QUICK WINDOW FOR WARMING ONLY
HAVE FORECAST HIGHS IN THE 40S TO MID 50S IN THE SOUTH. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL ALSO BE PRETTY BREEZY ON SATURDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE
TO THE WEST STRENGTHENS. CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE WINDS WILL STAY
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK NORTH OF THE AREA /OVER THE
DAKOTAS/ AS WILL THE SURFACE LOW. THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS THE
FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A WIND SHIFT...BUT LITTLE
IF ANY PRECIPITATION TO ALL BUT THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES.
DEEP MOISTURE WILL FOR THE MOST PART STAY NORTH OF THE AREA SO
WILL JUST CONTINUE THE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES. AGAIN...WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT WITH A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA
AND INTO NEBRASKA THROUGH SUNDAY. STRONGEST WINDS LOOK TO BE NORTH
OF THE HIGHWAYS 2 AND 91 CORRIDOR.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THIS PERIOD ALSO LOOKS FAIRLY ACTIVE WITH A STRONG SYSTEM
PROJECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ONSHORE ON
MONDAY...THEN TRACK TOWARDS THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT. THE
TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM HAS TRENDED NORTH...WHICH BRINGS WARMER AIR
INTO PLAY WHICH COULD CAUSE ISSUES WITH PRECIPITATION TYPE. THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW WOULD SUGGEST A WIDE OPEN GULF WITH STRONG MOISTURE
TRANSPORT NORTHWARD. ALSO...LOOKING AT THE ISENTROPIC
SURFACES...STRONG LIFT ALONG WITH SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES OF 5 TO 6
G/KG INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA INDICATE PLENTY OF JUICE FOR
PRECIPITATION. THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND A
WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTH INTO NEBRASKA MONDAY NIGHT. THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS HAVE COME INTO DECENT AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING THE WARM
AIR INTO MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH COULD BE WARM ENOUGH
FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR JUST RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN INTO NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. DID RAISE LOW TEMPERATURES A
BIT BUT DUE TO THE LIKELIHOOD THAT THERE WILL BE CHANGES YET AS
THE SYSTEM GETS CLOSER...DIDN/T GO TOO WARM. THE GFS IS THE
WARMEST SOLUTION WHICH WOULD SUGGEST RAIN OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. AT THIS POINT WANT TO EXERCISE
SOME CAUTION SO JUST WENT WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN HALF WITH SNOW OVER THE PANHANDLE AND NORTHWEST
NEBRASKA. AS THE LOW MOVES EAST...ARCTIC AIR WILL COME SOUTH ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WHICH WILL SWITCH PRECIPITATION OVER
TO ALL SNOW BY THE END OF THE DAY TUESDAY. SOMETHING ELSE TO
CONSIDER AS THERE IS COLDER AIR TO DEAL WITH...ALONG WITH A GOOD
TONGUE OF WARM AIR ABOVE THE SURFACE IS IF THERE WILL BE AN AREA
OF FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET. AS WAS STATED EARLIER...STILL NOT A
GREAT DEAL OF CONFIDENCE IN HOW THIS WILL ALL PLAY OUT SO DIDN/T
WANT TO ADD THE FREEZING PRECIPITATION TYPES INTO THE FORECAST
QUITE YET. SOMETHING TO KEEP IN MIND THOUGH.

SHOULD GET A SMALL BREAK WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE
NEXT SYSTEM CROSSES THE ROCKIES ON THURSDAY...SO HAVE CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION AGAIN FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

SHORT/LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...TAYLOR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTH PLATTE NE

547 AM CST FRI FEB 24 2012

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING ACROSS THE AREA. A DISTURBANCE
WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN
INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THE
ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BRING POCKETS OF MVFR CIGS...AT OR
ABOVE BKN025...THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. IMPACT OF MVFR IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN ALONG AND EAST OF A KIEN TO KBBW LINE. WIDESPREAD VFR
EXPECTED AFTER 00Z AS SYSTEM PUSHES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA.
WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE INCREASING LATER THIS MORNING...WITH
GUSTS ABOVE 25 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER SUNSET...WINDS SHOULD
QUICKLY DIMINISH.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 AM CST FRI FEB 24 2012/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SHOULD GET A SMALL BREAK WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE
NEXT SYSTEM CROSSES THE ROCKIES ON THURSDAY...SO HAVE CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION AGAIN FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

SHORT/LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...MASEK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTH PLATTE NE

352 AM CST FRI FEB 24 2012

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THIS PERIOD ALSO LOOKS FAIRLY ACTIVE WITH A STRONG SYSTEM
PROJECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ONSHORE ON
MONDAY...THEN TRACK TOWARDS THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT. THE TRACK
OF THIS SYSTEM HAS TRENDED NORTH...WHICH BRINGS WARMER AIR INTO
PLAY WHICH COULD CAUSE ISSUES WITH PRECIPITATION TYPE. THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW WOULD SUGGEST A WIDE OPEN GULF WITH STRONG MOISTURE
TRANSPORT NORTHWARD. ALSO...LOOKING AT THE ISENTROPIC
SURFACES...STRONG LIFT ALONG WITH SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES OF 5 TO 6
G/KG INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA INDICATE PLENTY OF JUICE FOR
PRECIPITATION. THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND
A WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTH INTO NEBRASKA MONDAY NIGHT. THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS HAVE COME INTO DECENT AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING THE WARM
AIR INTO MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH COULD BE WARM ENOUGH
FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR JUST RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN INTO NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. DID RAISE LOW TEMPERATURES A
BIT BUT DUE TO THE LIKELIHOOD THAT THERE WILL BE CHANGES YET AS
THE SYSTEM GETS CLOSER...DIDN/T GO TOO WARM. THE GFS IS THE
WARMEST SOLUTION WHICH WOULD SUGGEST RAIN OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. AT THIS POINT WANT TO EXERCISE
SOME CAUTION SO JUST WENT WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN HALF WITH SNOW OVER THE PANHANDLE AND NORTHWEST
NEBRASKA. AS THE LOW MOVES EAST...ARCTIC AIR WILL COME SOUTH ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WHICH WILL SWITCH PRECIPITATION OVER
TO ALL SNOW BY THE END OF THE DAY TUESDAY. SOMETHING ELSE TO
CONSIDER AS THERE IS COLDER AIR TO DEAL WITH...ALONG WITH A GOOD
TONGUE OF WARM AIR ABOVE THE SURFACE IS IF THERE WILL BE AN AREA
OF FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET. AS WAS STATED EARLIER...STILL NOT A
GREAT DEAL OF CONFIDENCE IN HOW THIS WILL ALL PLAY OUT SO DIDN/T
WANT TO ADD THE FREEZING PRECIPITATION TYPES INTO THE FORECAST
QUITE YET. SOMETHING TO KEEP IN MIND THOUGH.

SHOULD GET A SMALL BREAK WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE
NEXT SYSTEM CROSSES THE ROCKIES ON THURSDAY...SO HAVE CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION AGAIN FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.

.AVIATION...

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING ACROSS THE AREA. A DISTURBANCE
WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN
INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA TODAY. THE ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BRING
POCKETS OF MVFR CIGS...AT OR ABOVE BKN020...THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.
IMPACT OF MVFR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALONG AND EAST OF A KIEN TO
KBBW LINE. WIDESPREAD VFR EXPECTED AFTER 00Z AS SYSTEM PUSHES
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA.

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

SHORT/LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...MASEK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BUFFALO NY

708 AM EST FRI FEB 24 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THIS WILL BRING SOME SNOW AND RAIN TO THE
REGION TODAY...FOLLOWED BY WINDY CONDITIONS AND SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW
TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL TRACK INTO THE MARITIMES SATURDAY...WITH
MORE LAKE SNOWS IN SOME LOCATIONS.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A VERY ACTIVE PATTERN WITH LOTS TO TALK ABOUT HERE. MODELS HAVE
FINALLY COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT IN HANDLING THIS SYSTEM. A FAIRLY
TIGHT CONSENSUS TRACKS THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS LAKE ERIE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO THIS EVENING. AT THIS TIME...THE
LOW WILL BE DEEPENING RAPIDLY...AS IT IS CLOSING OFF IN THE UPPER
LEVELS.

THROUGH THIS MORNING...A BAND OF WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT EXTENDS
TO THE EAST OF THE DEVELOPING LOW. THIS BAND WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AS IT LIFTS NORTHWARD...PERHAPS BRINGING AN INCH OR SO OF
SNOW BEFORE IT TAPERS OFF AND CHANGES TO RAIN. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS SOUTH OF THIS...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING
AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST. LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THIS
AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER
50S SOUTH OF THE THRUWAY AS WARMER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION.
THEN EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF STEADIER PRECIPITATION TO MOVE IN
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE LOW GETS CLOSER. FOR MOST...THIS
SHOULD BE RAIN...EXCEPT ACROSS JEFFERSON/LEWIS COUNTIES WHERE SNOW
AND SLEET STILL MAY MIX IN AT TIMES.

THERE WILL BE SEVERAL AREAS OF CONCERN STEM FROM THIS SYSTEM.

STRONG WINDS...

WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THEN TO
THE WEST THIS EVENING...AS THE LOW LIFTS ACROSS THE LAKES.
BECAUSE THE LOW IS DEEPENING RAPIDLY AT THIS TIME AS IT CLOSES OFF
AT 500 MB...EXPECT WINDS TO BE QUITE GUSTY THIS EVENING. A LOOK AT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THE 00Z/06Z NAM AND THE 09Z RUC ALL NOW
SHOWING 925 MB WINDS OF 50 TO 60 KTS ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NEW
YORK THIS EVENING. HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT GUSTY WINDS WILL MIX
DOWN ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER...WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH LIKELY
THIS EVENING AS THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE AND LAKE INSTABILITY AID IN
MIXING. IN ADDITION...OPTED TO EXPAND THE WIND ADVISORY TO INCLUDE
MOST OF WESTERN NEW YORK AS STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO LIKELY TO MIX
DOWN ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
AT WELLSVILLE...AND MATCHES UP WITH NEIGHBORING HEADLINES.

SNOW OFF LAKE ONTARIO (AND SYNOPTIC SNOW)...

IN ADDITION TO THE WINDS...COLDER AIR WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE LOW.
WHILE 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY DROP TO THE -6C TO -9C RANGE
OVERNIGHT...THERE WILL BE A LOT OF SYNOPTIC MOISTURE ON THE BACK OF
THE EXITING LOW. MODELS REFLECT THIS IN QPF FIELDS...WHICH APPEAR TO
KEY HEAVILY ON UPSLOPE FEATURES. IF IT WERE DRY IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER...WOULD BE SKEPTICAL OF THESE QPF AMOUNTS...BUT GIVEN THE
CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE MOISTURE WRAPPED LOW...GENERALLY ACCEPT QPF
FOR HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM12/RGEM. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL VARY...WITH THE
GREATEST AMOUNTS LIKELY EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. HERE...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE COLDEST...AND UPSLOPING THE GREATEST. BECAUSE OF THIS...ISSUE
WARNINGS FOR THIS AREA...WITH THE TUG HILL LIKELY TO SEE ROUGHLY
FOOT OF SNOW FROM THIS. IN JEFFERSON/LEWIS COUNTIES...SNOWS WILL BE
MAINLY SYNOPTIC TODAY...AND LAKE ENHANCED TONIGHT...WHILE OSWEGO
COUNTY WILL SEE MORE OF A PURE LAKE EFFECT EVENT. WHILE HEADLINES
DIFFER SLIGHTLY...AM GENERALLY LOOKING FOR 6 O 12 INCHES IN THE
WARNING AREA...WITH A SLIGHTLY LATER START TIME FOR OSWEGO COUNTY.
THE BIGGEST IMPACT SHOULD BE ON THE TUG HILL TONIGHT...WHEN
UPSLOPE SNOWS COMBINE WITH GUSTY WINDS...WHICH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
VERY POOR DRIVING CONDITIONS. EXPECT LESSER AMOUNTS SOUTHEAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO IN NORTHERN CAYUGA AND WAYNE COUNTIES. MOST ORGANIZED
BANDS WILL START LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.

SNOWS OFF LAKE ERIE...

OFF LAKE ERIE...SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LESS...BUT STILL SIGNIFICANT.
GENERALLY LOOKING FOR 4 TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY IN
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER. UPSLOPE REGIONS SHOULD
AGAIN SEE THE MOST SNOW...PARTICULARLY THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE AND
PERHAPS THE BOSTON HILLS. THIS HAS ALSO PROMPTED A LAKE EFFECT
ADVISORY.

FOR THE BIG CITIES OF BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER...EXPECT LESSER SNOW
AMOUNTS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR POSSIBLE TIE INS WITH MOISTURE
UPSTREAM...AS THIS MAY LOCALLY ENHANCE SNOW FALL AMOUNTS.
OTHERWISE...EXPECTING AN INCH OR TWO TONIGHT.

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE DEEPENING LOW THAT WILL BRING A MIX OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA
TODAY WILL LIFT OUT ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SATURDAY. A BRISK
NORTHWEST FLOW OF COLDER AIR WILL ALREADY BE IN PLACE WITH PLENTY OF
SYNOPTIC SCALE MOISTURE LINGERING BEHIND THE LOW. THIS WILL RESULT
IN WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS AND STEADIER SNOW SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES.

REGARDING THE LAKE ENHANCEMENT OFF LAKE ERIE...A COMBINATION OF DEEP
MOISTURE...FAVORABLE SNOW GROWTH AND LAKE INSTABILITY (EQUILIBRIUM
LEVELS AROUND 9K FEET) WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH A GOOD PART OF
SATURDAY. THE WEST TO NORTHWEST FETCH WILL MAINLY IMPACT THE
SOUTHERN TIER...INCLUDING SOUTHERN ERIE AND WYOMING COUNTIES. FROM
EARLY SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY
NIGHT...BUFKIT PROFILES SHOW A TREND OF DIMINISHING MOISTURE AND A
LOWERING INVERSION AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO WORKS EAST FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY. AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SNOW GROWTH
BECOME EVEN LESS FAVORABLE FOR SNOW PRODUCTION. BASED ON THESE
TRENDS...A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH
SATURDAY.

A SIMILAR TREND WILL BE TAKING PLACE SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO
SATURDAY. THE FAVORABLE PARAMETERS OF DEEP MOISTURE...SNOW GROWTH
AND INSTABILITY (EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS ABOUT 10K) WILL RESULT IN
STEADIER SNOW THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE BIGGEST IMPACT FROM
POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL WILL BE FELT OVER OSWEGO COUNTY
WHERE STEADIER SNOW WILL HAVE ALREADY SET UP FRIDAY NIGHT. AS A
RESULT...A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THAT
AREA THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. THE LOW LEVEL WIND TRAJECTORY ACROSS
LAKE ONTARIO WILL RESULT IN ORGANIZED LAKE SNOWS ACROSS WAYNE AND
NORTHERN CAYUGA COUNTIES AS WELL. BUT SINCE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS
WILL NOT DIRECT THE STEADIER SNOW INTO THESE COUNTIES UNTIL LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY MORNING...WE HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH A LAKE
EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. THIS MAY HAVE TO BE UPGRADED TO A
WARNING IF THE SNOWS BECOME ORGANIZED SOONER THAN EXPECTED. THE LAKE
SNOWS WILL LINGER SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH AT LEAST THE
FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY NIGHT...BEFORE THE LOWERING INVERSION AND
DECREASING MOISTURE ALLOW THE SNOW TO SUBSIDE LATER IN THE NIGHT.

AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE STEADIER LAKE SNOWS WILL STILL SEE OCCASIONAL
SNOW SHOWERS ON SATURDAY...BUT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL FOR UPSTREAM
CONNECTIONS TO GEORGIAN BAY AND LAKE HURON COULD BRING HIGHER
ACCUMULATIONS TO THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND WESTERN SHORES OF LAKE
ONTARIO AS WELL.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING CANADIAN MARITIMES LOW
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL RESULT IN
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL HAVE HAVE AN
ADDITIONAL IMPACT ON TRAVEL WITH FREQUENT WHITEOUT CONDITIONS LIKELY
IN THE STEADIER LAKE SNOW AREAS.

FOR SUNDAY...ANY SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO
SHOULD END BY LATE MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE STATE.

AS THE HIGH SLIDES OFF THE EAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT...A DEVELOPING
LOW WILL BE TRACKING EAST ACROSS THE UPPER AND CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.
A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST OF THE LOW WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS OUR
AREA AND BRING A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE NORTH COUNTRY.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOOK FOR A WARM AND DRY START TO THE WEEK AS A CLIPPER LOW SLIDES
FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO QUEBEC PLACING WESTERN NEW YORK
FIRMLY IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW UNDER BROAD SOUTHERLY FLOW. ANY
ISENTROPICALLY INDUCED PRECIP WILL OCCUR FAR TO OUR NORTH IN
CANADA...RESULTING IN DRY DAY WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE
ACROSS THE AREA HELPING HIGHS TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE 40S.

MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS A DRY NIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER THERE
ARE SOME DISPARITIES IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST BASED ON
DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING/LOCATION OF A SURFACE LOW PROGGED TO FORM
OVER THE GREAT PLAINS SOMETIME BETWEEN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE GFS IS MUCH FASTER IN DEVELOPING BROAD WARM ADVECTION
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT AS OPPOSED TO
THE ECMWF THAT ALLOWS COLDER AIR TO FLOW ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE WARM
ADVECTION KICKS IN TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS PRESENTS A VERY SIMILAR
CONUNDRUM TO THE ONE PLAYING OUT RIGHT NOW FOR TONIGHT/S FORECAST
AND GIVEN HOW FAR OUT WE ARE TALKING ABOUT...CHANGES WILL BE VERY
MINOR...STICKING WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S
MONDAY NIGHT.

THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE MIDWEST DURING THE
EARLY PART OF NEST WEEK AND TRACKS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND
EVENTUALLY ACROSS NEW YORK STATE SOMETIME DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH TIMING DEPENDENT ON WHICH MODEL YOU GO WITH. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY ALREADY DISCUSSED AND THE LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE
SOLUTION...THE GRIDS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE
BROAD-BRUSHED CHANCE POPS WITH RUNNING ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...WHICH IS APPROPRIATE GIVEN THE TRENDS THIS SEASON.

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN AREA OF WARM AIR ADVECTION IN THE MID-LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THIS MORNING. THIS WILL BRING ART A PERIOD
OF SNOW...WITH ELSEWHERE LIKELY TO JUST SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS
THROUGH THIS MORNING. CIGS SHOULD TREND LOWER AS MORE MOISTURE
BUILDS IN...THOUGH THE SE FLOW ALOFT SHOULD HELP KEEP BUF/IAG/ROC
IN THE MVFR RANGE.

STEADIER RAIN WILL MOVE IN THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL LIKELY
LOWER BOTH VSBY AND CIGS. AS THE LOW DEEPENS AND MOVES ACROSS THE
LAKES...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SW-W LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THIS WILL TRANSITION RAIN SHOWERS TO SNOW SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST.

EXPECT SOME RESTRICTIONS TO REMAIN FOR THE BETTER PART OF THE
NIGHT...AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY EXITS EAST. LOWEST
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE AT JHW/ART...WHERE LAKE ENHANCEMENT IS MOST
LIKELY.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...VFR...WITH IFR/MVFR IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND AREAS
OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST OF THE LAKES.
SUNDAY...VFR...SCTD LAKE EFFECT SNOW SOUTHEASTERN LAKE ONTARIO.
MONDAY...VFR.

.MARINE...
ISSUES GALES FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE WATERS...AS LOW PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AS IT CROSSES THE WATERS. STRONGEST WINDS
SHOULD BE ON LAKE ERIE THIS EVENING...WITH THIS THEN SHIFTING TO
EASTERN PORTIONS OF LAKE ONTARIO LATER TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...SMALL
CRAFTS UP ELSEWHERE.

WINDS SHOULD REMAIN UP WELL INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH GALES LIKELY TO
TRANSITION TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR SOME TIME.

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES WHILE
INTENSIFYING. THIS WILL CAUSE A RAPID WIND INCREASE AND SHIFT LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHICH CAN BE FAVORABLE FOR CAUSING A SIEGE
EVENT. BECAUSE OF THIS POSSIBILITY...HAVE ISSUED A LAKESHORE FLOOD
WATCH FOR ERIE AND CHAUTAUQUA COUNTIES.

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM EST
SATURDAY FOR NYZ012-019-020-085.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EST SATURDAY
FOR NYZ001-010-019-020-085.
LAKESHORE FLOOD WATCH FROM 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THIS EVENING FOR NYZ010-019-085.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NYZ007-008.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM EST
SATURDAY FOR NYZ006.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 5 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
NYZ004-005.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
NYZ002>005-011>014-021.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR LEZ020.
GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EST SATURDAY
FOR LEZ040-041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM
EST SATURDAY FOR LOZ030.
GALE WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST SATURDAY
FOR LOZ043>045-063>065.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ042.

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL
SHORT TERM...TJP
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...APFFEL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BUFFALO NY

1122 PM EST THU FEB 23 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND EASTERN GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT...INTENSIFYING AS IT TRACKS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING SNOW TO THE REGION TONIGHT
THEN A CHANGE OF SNOW TO RAIN DURING FRIDAY MORNING. AS THE LOW
EXITS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...IT WILL BRING COLDER AIR
DEVELOPING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE WEEKEND.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1100PM...REGIONAL RADAR SHOWING A BAND OF WARM ADVECTION RAIN
AND SNOW SPREAD FROM SOUTHERN MICHIGAN EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO
TO WESTERN PA. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE SPREAD NORTH INTO THE
BUF FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THE STORM SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY. TEMPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ARE IN THE LOWER 30S
WHILE UPPER 30S ARE SEEN SOUTH INTO PA. AS THIS BAND OF RAIN LIFTS
NORTH OVER THE COOLER TEMPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER SNOW WILL BEGIN
TO FALL AND SHOULD COME IN PRETTY INTENSE ESPECIALLY WITH 40 TO 50
DBZ BEING OBSERVED ON RADAR MOSAIC NEAR THE NY/PA BORDER. LATEST
HRRR AND RUC MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SNOW MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN
TIER NEAR MIDNIGHT AND INTO THE REST OF WESTERN NY BY 08Z-09Z. NO
IMPACTS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY UNTIL LIKELY NEAR/AFTER SUNRISE. POP/WX
GRIDS WHERE TWEAKED A BIT AND ARE INLINE WITH SHORT TERM MODELS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR SOUTHERN ILLINOIS THIS EVENING WILL SHIFT
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY BY MORNING. 12Z NAM12 AND REGIONAL
GEM HAVE COME TO A CLOSER CONSENSUS AS TO THE
PLACEMENT/TIMING/INTENSITY TO A PRECIP BAND PRECEDING THE SURFACE
LOW. THESE MODELS SHOW STRONG 925-850MB FRONTOGENETIC FORCING OVER
SOUTHWESTERN AND WESTERN NY OVERNIGHT...WITHIN A LIKEWISE STRONG
WARM ADVECTION IN THESE SAME LAYERS. DEEP MOISTURE AND A DEEP OMEGA
PLUME TO ABOVE 25000FT AND A CO-LOCATED OMEGA MAXIMUM WITHIN THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE WILL MAXIMIZE THE SNOW POTENTIAL. EXPECT THIS
TO BE IN THE FAIRLY NARROW BUT INTENSE BAND LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS
WESTERN NY. WILL HAVE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR SNOW
TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...SOME HEAVIER SNOW WITH RATES MORE THAN AN
INCH AN HOUR...AND THUNDER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

THE HEAVIER SNOW BAND LIFTING NORTHWARD WILL ALSO AFFECT THE EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO COUNTIES...LESSER IMPACT ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE
ONTARIO AS THE FRONTOGENETIC FORCING SLIDES AS LITTLE MORE TO THE
EAST AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING SURFACE LOW. WILL START A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY AT 6AM FOR JEFF/OSW/LEWIS COUNTIES WITH A 6-8 INCH MAX OF
SNOW ON THE TUG HILL.

HIGH TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPERMOST 30S TO MID 40S
FOR WESTERN TO CENTRAL NY...THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40 FOR THE EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO REGION AND UPPER SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY.

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
REGARDLESS OF THE UNCERTAINTY PLAGUING THE NEAR-TERM FORECAST...THE
ONE THING THAT APPEARS REASONABLY CERTAIN IS THE PROBABILITY OF
WIDESPREAD LAKE EFFECT SNOWS ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY. THE PROBLEMATIC SURFACE LOW WILL BE
PULLING AWAY FROM THE REGION ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND
SYNOPTIC SNOWS SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
FRIDAY EVENING AS THE DEFORMATION BAND WEST OF THE LOW CROSSES THE
AREA.

COLDER AIR WRAPPING BEHIND THE LOW WILL FLOW ACROSS THE LAKES
FRIDAY EVENING AS 850MB TEMPS DROP TOWARDS THE -8C TO -10C RANGE
UNDER WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE 20S.
WHILE THE SURFACE-850MB TEMPERATURE DIFFERENTIAL IS SOMEWHAT
MARGINAL FOR TYPICAL LAKE EFFECT EVENTS...THE LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN IS CERTAINLY CONDUCIVE TO DEVELOPMENT OF LAKE EFFECT WITH A
BROAD 500MB TROUGH OVER THE REGION AND CYCLONIC FLOW AT ALL LEVELS
ALONG WITH PLENTY OF LINGERING SYNOPTIC MOISTURE THAT EXTENDS DEEP
INTO THE ATMOSPHERE. GIVEN THIS FAVORABLE SETUP...WILL GO WITH A
BROADBRUSH LES WATCH FOR ALL OF THE CWA WITH THE EXCEPTIONS OF
ONTARIO/LIVINGSTON COUNTIES WHERE CLIMATOLOGY GENERALLY RULES
AGAINST SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS. WITH THE FLOW VEERING FROM 270 TO
290/300 DEGREES...IT CURRENTLY APPEARS THAT THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR FROM OSWEGO/SOUTHERN LEWIS DOWN TO EASTERN
WAYNE COUNTIES OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO AND FROM SOUTHERN ERIE DOWN INTO
THE SOUTHERN TIER OFF OF LAKE ERIE. THESE AREAS HAVE THE STRONGEST
POSSIBILITY OF SEEING WARNING LEVEL SNOWS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
A LAKE HURON/GEORGIAN BAY CONNECTION...CANNOT RULE OUT AT LEAST
ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWS FROM NORTHERN ERIE COUNTY OVER TO ROCHESTER.

IN ADDITION TO DEVELOPING LAKE EFFECT SNOWS...THE ABOVE-MENTIONED
COLD ADVECTION AND TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE EXITING
SURFACE LOW WILL ALSO BRING A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS. MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT...AND HENCE THE
SURFACE...WILL BE ACROSS THE GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES
REGION...CLOSEST TO THE AREA OF GREATEST DOWNWARD MOMENTUM. BUFKIT
PROFILES INDICATE THAT WIND GUSTS MAY EXCEED ADVISORY CRITERIA WITH
MAX GUSTS IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 40-50KTS ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED
AREAS WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER GUSTS TO THE NORTH AND WEST...MORE LIKE
35-45KTS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW AND
THE FACT THAT WE ARE TALKING ABOUT AN ADVISORY THAT STRADDLES THE
END OF THE THIRD INTO THE FOURTH FORECAST PERIODS...WILL HOLD OFF ON
ISSUING ANY WIND ADVISORIES FOR NOW AND LEAVE THAT TO THE NEXT SHIFT
TO MAKE THE FINAL CALL ON...WHEN THERE WILL HOPEFULLY BE GREATER
CONFIDENCE.

AFTER A WINTRY DAY SATURDAY WITH HIGHS RIGHT AROUND 30
DEGREES...MUCH MORE WHAT ONE WOULD EXPECT FOR MID TO LATE FEBRUARY.
...LAKE EFFECT SNOWS SHOULD WIND DOWN SATURDAY NIGHT AS RIDGING ALOFT
AND AT THE SURFACE BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WITH ANY
LINGERING FLURRIES ENDING BY SUNDAY MORNING AS FLOW TURNS SOUTHERLY.
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN FAIRLY PLEASANT DAY ON SUNDAY WITH AT LEAST
THE AREAS WEST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY SEEING A FAIR AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE. WARM ADVECTION ALOFT AHEAD OF A CLIPPER LOW OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST WILL RESULT IN MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS EAST OF THE GENESEE
VALLEY. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO RUN RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD AIR IN PLACE SLOWLY
RETREATS TO THE NORTH.

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS LOWERING TO IFR/LIFR BY MORNING AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE BRINGS LOWERING CIGS AND SNOW OVERNIGHT. IR SATELLITE AND
OBS SHOWING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
AHEAD OF THE STORM SYSTEM. CIGS/VIS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY LOWER TO
IFR/LIFR AFTER 07Z-09Z WITH ON SET OF INTENSE BAND OF RAIN SHIFTING
NORTH INTO NY AND CHANGING TO SNOW. SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES OVER
THE SOUTHERN TIER AND CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE. RADAR MOSAIC PICKING UP
STRONG PRECIP ECHOES NEAR THE NY/PA BORDER WHICH WILL TRANSLATE INTO
THE BAND OF HEAVY SNOW AS IT SHIFT NORTHWARD. A TRANSITION TO RAIN
IS EXPECTED BY MID MORNING ACROSS WESTERN NY INTO THE AFTERNOON AS
THE STORM CENTER MOVES NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. KART WILL SEE A LATER
ARRIVAL OF SNOW...11Z-12Z AND LATER CHANGE TO RAIN IF AT ALL. SNOW
WILL REDEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE STORM SYSTEM THIS EVENING
AS COLD FRONT PASSES EAST THEN LAKE SNOW BANDS WILL SET UP INTO
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...VFR...WITH IFR/MVFR IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND AREAS
OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST OF THE LAKES.
SUNDAY...VFR...SCTD LAKE EFFECT SNOW SOUTHEASTERN LAKE ONTARIO.
MONDAY...VFR.

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL DEEPEN AND LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE LOWER LAKES BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS LOW
WILL CONTINUE ON ACROSS LAKE ERIE AND WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO...RAISING
WINDS AND WAVES. LATEST MODEL DATA INDICATES GALE FORCE WINDS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS LAKE ERIE SO A GALE
WATCH HAS BEEN HOISTED. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN EFFECT EARLIER
FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS LAKE ERIE PRE-GALE AND ACROSS THE LAKE
ONTARIO NEAR SHORES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE STORM SYSTEM
SHIFTS FROM LAKE ONTARIO UP THE ST. LAWRENCE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
FILL IN FOR SUNDAY WITH WINDS AND WAVES RELAXING.

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING FOR NYZ001>008-010>012-019>021-085.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
NYZ006>008.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ010>014-
019>021-085.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
LEZ040-041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 4 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
LEZ040-041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EST
SUNDAY FOR LOZ043>045.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EST SUNDAY
FOR LOZ042.

SYNOPSIS...WCH
NEAR TERM...SMITH/WCH
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON NC

413 PM EST FRI FEB 24 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING. AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT STRONG THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN
POSSIBLE AND A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
WEEKEND. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE...AND STRONG LOW PRESSURE PASSES
NORTH OF THE REGION.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...TORNADO WATCH #38 CONTINUES ACROSS THE CWA
THROUGH 8PM TONIGHT.

SQUALL LINE WHICH HAS DEVELOPED ALONG A PREFRONTAL TROUGH IS
CURRENTLY PUSHING WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE CWA...AND WILL EXIT THE
COAST IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR
DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES...ALTHOUGH STABILIZATION IS
OCCURRING BEHIND THIS LINE. CONCERN THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT
REVOLVES AROUND THIS INITIAL LINE...AND ANY STORMS THAT MAY DEVELOP
ALONG THE COLD FRONT ITSELF.

FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...PREFRONTAL SQUALL LINE WILL PUSH EAST. AN
OBVIOUS MARINE LAYER IS EVIDENT IN LATEST MSAS ANALYSIS...AND THIS
SHOULD HELP SQUELCH CONVECTION AS IT HEADS TOWARDS THE COAST. STILL
SIGNIFICANT SBCAPE JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST WHICH WILL SUPPORT
STORMS FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO...BUT LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...LI`S...AND INSTABILITY ALL DECREASE WITHIN 20 MILES OR SO OF
THE COAST. ADDITIONALLY...KLTX VWP SHOWS THAT LOW LEVEL WINDS HAVE
DECREASED SLIGHTLY TO AROUND 40 KTS AT 3 KFT. UNFORTUNATELY...HRRR
HAS BEEN DOWN...BUT LATEST RUC DIMINISHES THIS INITIAL BATCH BY 6PM
WHICH SEEMS PLAUSIBLE BASED OFF THE ONGOING ENVIRONMENT.

COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH TONIGHT. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
RENEWED CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT AS IT PUSHES THROUGH BETWEEN 6PM
AND 9PM. QUESTION BECOMES HOW MUCH RE-DESTABILIZATION CAN OCCUR
BEHIND THE ONGOING CONVECTION TO HELP FUEL STORMS ALONG THE FRONT.
NOTE THAT CAPE IS INCREASING ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF NC AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...BUT DIURNAL HEATING WILL BE WORKING AGAINST US. WILL
KEEP CHANCE OF TSTMS THROUGH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT THE
SEVERE THREAT WILL BE MINIMAL AFTER AROUND 6PM. OF COURSE...ANY
ELEVATED INSTABILITY THAT PERSISTS IN THE RESIDUAL LAYER COULD FORCE
STRONG UPDRAFTS SO WILL HAVE TO MONITOR RADAR TRENDS.

TEMPS WILL CRASH BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT AS GUSTY SW WINDS BECOME
GUSTY FROM THE NW. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT TO 20 MPH OR SO...AND THIS WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO CRASH 20-25
DEGREES AFTER NIGHTFALL...WITH LOWS AROUND 40 INLAND...AND LOW 40S
AT THE COAST.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY A VASTLY DIFFERENT FEEL
TO THE AIR WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION UNDERWAY AND CLEARING SKY TRENDS.
MAX TEMPS 57-62 SATURDAY...AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ALLOW
MINS SUNDAY MORNING TO DIP TO AROUND FREEZING IN MANY INTERIOR
LOCATIONS. SUNDAY A FEW IMPULSES OUT OF THE GULF WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS TO OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...EARLY AND MID WEEK MARKED BY RIDGING ALOFT
AND SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW. RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AS AN UPPER LOW PASSES
NORTH OF THE AREA AND BRINGS THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY...WITH ZONAL FLOW IN WAKE OF THIS FEATURE.

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 20Z...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINALS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
CONTINUING TO DEVELOP WEST OF FLO...AND ARE EXPANDING MORE RAPIDLY
TO THE NORTHEAST THAN EAST. WILL INDICATE PRIMARILY MVFR
CONDITIONS AT FLO/LBT THROUGH MUCH OF THIS AFTERNOON WITH
THUNDERSTORMS/TEMPO IFR LIKELY AT LEAST THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.
MVFR CONDITIONS AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS CAN BE EXPECTED LATE
AFTERNOON WITH THE SAME THUNDERSTORM/TEMPO IFR POTENTIAL LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. AFTER FROPA EXPECT RAPID IMPROVEMENT TO
VFR MID-LEVEL CEILINGS WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST. BY
MIDNIGHT SKIES SHOULD BECOME SCATTERED AT FLO/LBT AND AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. AFTER SUNRISE EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS AND NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 25
KNOTS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCE OF IFR/FOG EARLY MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATER TUESDAY. OTHERWISE VFR.

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...SQUALL LINE APPROACHING THE WATERS WILL CREATE
SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND A BRIEF INCREASE IN WINDS IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT OTHERWISE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. SOUTHWEST
WINDS OF 15-25 KTS WILL PERSIST THROUGH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WHICH
WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AROUND MIDNIGHT. A RATHER SIGNIFICANT WIND SHIFT
OCCURS WITH THE COLD FRONT...FROM SW TO NW...AT STILL ELEVATED
SPEEDS OF 15-25 KTS. A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT NOT
EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO UPGRADE THE ONGOING SCA TO
ANYTHING HIGHER. SEAS HAVE BEEN SLIGHTLY BELOW PROGS...MOSTLY 4-6
FEET...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD TO 5-8 THROUGH TONIGHT...DOMINATED
BY A SW WIND CHOP. NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL INITIALLY CREATE A
PERIOD OF HIGHLY CONFUSED SEAS...BEFORE NW WIND CHOP BECOMES THE
PREDOMINANT WAVE AND BEGINS TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS
LATE TONIGHT...BUT PERSIST ACROSS AMZ250 AND AMZ252 THROUGH THE
MORNING.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...ADVISORIES EXTENDED INTO MIDDAY SATURDAY OVER
OUR NORTHERN TWO MARINE ZONES DUE TO GUSTY NW WINDS. SEAS HOWEVER
WILL BE DAMPENING AND ONCE WINDS ABATE...ADVISORIES WILL BE DROPPED.
SUNDAY IMPROVED CONDITIONS AS WINDS TAPER OFF AS HIGH PRESSURE
PASSES JUST NORTH OF THE WATERS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...ONSHORE
BUT LIGHT FLOW MON AND TUE WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE LATE
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EARLY THURSDAY...THUS
WE MAY BE LOOKING AT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MID WEEK.

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.

MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
AMZ254-256.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ250-252.

NEAR TERM...JDW
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...MJC
AVIATION...MRR/SGL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RALEIGH NC

320 PM EST FRI FEB 24 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY. STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MID EVENING. COOLER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 PM FRIDAY...

...MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLE
TORNADOES TODAY...

THROUGH THIS EVENING: THE SURFACE COLD FRONT ACCORDING TO THE LATEST
MESOANALYSIS HAS PUSHED WELL INTO THE NC MOUNTAINS. STRONG TO SEVERE
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO STREAK ACROSS SOUTHEAST NC... SUPPORTED IN
LARGE PART BY A LOW LEVEL JET STREAK AND ASSOCIATED MASS
CONVERGENCE. WITH EARLY-DAY SURFACE HEATING COMBINED WITH WEAK MID
LEVEL COOLING... THE COLUMN CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE WITH SURFACE
CAPE ESTIMATED TO BE AROUND 400-1000 J/KG ACROSS THE AREA (AND
MEASURED AT AROUND 400 J/KG ON THE SPECIAL 18Z GSO SOUNDING)...
ALTHOUGH THE BLOWOFF FROM THESE SOUTHEAST STORMS AND FROM EARLIER
SC/GA CONVECTION HAS SPREAD ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL NC AND TEMPERED THE
INSTABILITY A BIT HERE... DESPITE SURFACE DEW POINTS WELL INTO THE
60S. THE INTENSE WIND FIELD (0-6 KM SHEAR NEAR 70 KTS AND 0-1 KM
SHEAR OF AROUND 40 KTS) WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED SEVERE
CONVECTION... AND WE HAVE INDEED SEEN THESE DISCRETE CELLS AND
BOWING SEGMENTS BECOME MORE ORGANIZED OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT...
JUST A BIT AHEAD OF THE FRONT... IN THE LAST HOUR. FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT INTO A MATURE QLCS SHOULD BRING A WIDESPREAD THREAT OF
DAMAGING WINDS FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
ISOLATED TORNADOES REMAIN POSSIBLE GIVEN THE NICELY CURVED HODOGRAPH
THROUGH THE LOWEST 3 KM NOTED ON RUC PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS... AND DEEP
MOISTURE (BLENDED TPW IMAGERY SHOWING VALUES AROUND 200% OF NORMAL)
WITH HIGH DEW POINTS SHOULD ENSURE SUFFICIENTLY LOW LCL HEIGHTS FOR
A POSSIBLE STRONG TORNADO OR TWO. A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT
UNTIL 8 PM FOR ALL OF CENTRAL NC. EXPECT THE SURFACE FRONT AND
PRECEDING STORMS TO SWEEP EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MID
EVENING... FOLLOWED BY FAIR SKIES AND FALLING TEMPS OVERNIGHT. LOWS
34-42 WITH THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE REMAINING WINDY AND WELL-MIXED
OVERNIGHT WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION.

FOR SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT: THE MID LEVEL LOW TRACKING OVER LAKES
ERIE/ONTARIO AND UP THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY OVERNIGHT WILL MOVE TO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SATURDAY... AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
SHIFTS OVER NC. THE MSLP GRADIENT REMAINS QUITE TIGHT SUCH THAT
WINDS WILL INCREASE ANEW AFTER SUNRISE TO SUSTAINED 17-23 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 30-35 MPH... LASTING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE
SLOWLY DIMINISHING AS THE LARGE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST. THESE WINDS COMBINED WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
BRING ABOUT A RISK OF ADVERSE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS (SEE
DISCUSSION BELOW). STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION AND UPSTREAM
TEMPS TODAY POINT TO HIGHS OF 52-58 SATURDAY... UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. CLEAR SATURDAY NIGHT WITH CHILLY LOWS OF 25-30 AS WINDS
DIMINISH TO NEARLY CALM DURING THE NIGHT. -GIH

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 120 PM FRIDAY...

THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE OVER MEXICO WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AND
DEAMPLIFY ACROSS THE CAROLINAS ON SUNDAY. SINCE STABLE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE (~1030-1035 MB) WILL PREVAIL DURING THAT TIME...EXPECT ONLY
CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDINESS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE WAVE ALOFT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES...ADJUSTED DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF 50
DEGREES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN DRIFT OFFSHORE BUT CONTINUE TO
EXTEND WESTWARD ACROSS NC AND MAINTAIN FAIR WEATHER THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH PROJECTED LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES AROUND 1320 METERS SUGGESTS LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S...WHILE DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW BY LATE MON SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM FRIDAY...

MON NIGHT-TUE NIGHT: A LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME WILL SUPPORT
INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE LOWEST 10 THOUSAND FT LATE MON NIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY TUE...WHICH WILL PROVIDE FOR INCREASING CLOUDINESS...AND
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWFA TUE...AND AREA-WIDE WITH A WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE TUE NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL ACCORDINGLY FURTHER MODERATE - MIDDLE 30S TO
AROUND 40 DEGREES MON NIGHT...MIDDLE 60S TUE...AND MOSTLY PRIOR TO
MIDNIGHT LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 40S TO LOWER 50S (COOLEST NE) COURTESY
OF THE PASSING WARM FRONT.

WED-FRI: A PAIR OF UPPER TROUGHS...IN A PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW
PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS...WILL SUPPORT A COUPLE OF MIGRATORY
SURFACE CYCLONES TO OUR NW (MUCH LIKE THE MAJORITY OF THIS WINTER
WEATHER SEASON) OWING TO A PERSISTENT 588 DM SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE OVER
THE CARIBBEAN. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE FRONT TRAILING THE FIRST
CYCLONE WILL CROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF
SHOWERS (AND PERHAPS A FEW STORMS DUE TO THE PRECEDING WARMTH IN THE
70S) WED INTO WED NIGHT. CLEARING AND TURNING COOLER...BUT STILL
ABOVE AVERAGE...FOR THU-THU NIGHT...BEFORE THE THE SECOND FRONTAL
SYSTEM BRINGS ANOTHER THREAT OF SHOWERS BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 105 PM FRIDAY...

WITH A COMBINATION OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND A PERIOD OF STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS AHEAD OF AN INCOMING COLD FRONT... ADVERSE
AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AT CENTRAL NC TERMINAL FORECAST SITES
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING... FIRST AT INT/GSO 18Z-22Z...
THEN AT RDU 19Z-23Z... AND AT RWI AT 20Z-00Z. FAY WILL SEE AN
EXTENDED THREAT OF STORMS FROM 18Z THROUGH 00Z AS STORMS TRAIN
REPEATEDLY OVER THE AREA. BACKGROUND WINDS FROM THE SW SUSTAINED AT
16-23 KTS WILL OCCASIONALLY GUST TO 25-35 KTS OUTSIDE OF ANY
STORMS... AND THIS STRONG WIND SHEAR IN THE LOWEST FEW THOUSAND FEET
MAY INDUCE MECHANICAL TURBULENCE THAT COULD BE HAZARDOUS ESPECIALLY
TO SMALL AIRCRAFT. NOTE THAT THESE PREFRONTAL WIND IS A STRONG
CROSSWIND AT INT. STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS COULD BRING LOCAL
WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 KTS WITH A LESSER THREAT OF HAIL THROUGH
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE. DOMINANT VFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL DROP TO MVFR AND IFR IN
AND NEAR SHOWERS/STORMS. THE RISK OF STORMS WILL BE OVER BY
22Z-02Z... HOWEVER WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THE WINDS WILL SHIFT
AROUND TO WNW (270-300 DEGREES) AND REMAIN STRONG THROUGH THE NIGHT
AT 10-20 KTS PERIODICALLY GUSTING TO 20-25 KTS. MAINLY WESTERLY
WINDS WILL PICK BACK UP SATURDAY MORNING AT 15-20 KTS SUSTAINED AND
GUSTING TO 25-30 KTS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM MID EVENING
THROUGH SATURDAY.

LOOKING BEYOND EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON: WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY 22Z
SATURDAY. MVFR/IFR FOG/STRATUS IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING INTO
WEDNESDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM.
STRENGTHENING WINDS FROM THE SW ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY. -GIH

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 140 PM FRIDAY...

...RED FLAG WATCH FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR NORTHWEST PIEDMONT...

STRONG GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 35 TO 40 MPH AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
WILL SHIFT TO WEST NORTHWEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE
WAKE OF THE EXITING FRONT. TEMPERATURES OUTSIDE SHOWERS ARE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S THIS AFTERNOON. LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE
MODEST... FALLING NO LOWER THAN 35 PERCENT THIS EVENING BEFORE
RISING OVERNIGHT. RAINFALL WILL BE SPOTTY IN THE WEST... WITH
WIDESPREAD RAINS IN THE EAST OF AS MUCH AS ONE INCH. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST... MAINLY EAST.

BREEZY WEST NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 MPH
ARE EXPECTED BY MID MORNING SATURDAY... CONTINUING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL FALL TO 15 TO 25
PERCENT. HOWEVER IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.

A RED FLAG WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR MUCH OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA
WEST OF HIGHWAY 220. ANY POSSIBLE RED FLAG WATCH WILL BE ADJUSTED
SATURDAY MORNING BASED ON RAINFALL FALLING THIS AFTERNOON.

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
FOR NCZ007-021>023-038-039-073.

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...MWS
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
FIRE WEATHER...99

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON NC

635 AM EST FRI FEB 24 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
WINDY AND WARM CONDITIONS TODAY WILL PRECEDE A FAST MOVING LINE
OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT. SEASONABLE
TO SLIGHTLY COOL WEEKEND WEATHER WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL
WARMUP LASTING MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM FRIDAY...STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BE THE WEATHER STORY THROUGH THIS
EVENING. MODELS INDICATE THE WEST TO EAST MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT
SLATED FOR PASSAGE BY MID EVENING. HIGH SHEAR LOW CAPE SEVERE
EVENT...BUT IN THIS CASE SFC BASED CAPE IS MORE PREVALENT AND
ILLUSTRATED BY LATEST MODELS IE. LATEST HRRR MODEL RUNS...THEN
PREVIOUS POTENTIAL SEVERE WX EVENTS OF THIS WINTER SEASON. FROM
NAMBUFR SOUNDINGS ACROSS SE N.C...PWS PEAK AROUND 1.5 INCHES THIS
AFTERNOON...LI -4...CAPE UP TO 1250. 900MB WINDS 50+ KT. THESE
PARAMETERS AS WELL AS OTHER TSTM PARAMETERS POINT TO STRONG TO
SEVERE CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. VIA MODEL SOUNDINGS...THE
CONVECTION WILL ILLUSTRATE WEST TO EAST MOVEMENT WITH STORM MOTIONS
OF 40-50 KT...VIA NAMBUFR SOUNDINGS. HIGHLIGHTED THE SEVERE WX
THREAT FROM MIDDAY THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. ANY SVR WATCHES
ISSUED BY SPC WILL FURTHER REFINE THIS TIMELINE. MAX TEMPS TODAY ON
THE HIGHER SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE...GIVEN ANOTHER NEARLY FULL DAYS
WORTH OF THIS UNUSUAL WARM/MOIST AIRMASS TO AFFECT THE ILM CWA PRIOR
TO THE CFP TONIGHT. EXPECT WIDESPREAD 70S EXCEPT LOWER ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST DUE TO SSTS IN THE 50S. SW WINDS TO GUST 25 TO 35
MPH BY MIDDAY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...MUCH DRIER AND CONSIDERABLY COOLER AIR ADVECTION
IN ON SATURDAY AS 1030MB HIGH DIVES INTO TX AND GULF STATES. TEMPS
STILL QUITE CLOSE TO CLIMO SAT AFTERNOON BUT CONTINUED CAA SAT NIGHT
TO BRING LOWS ALMOST A CATEGORY BELOW NORMAL. SUNDAY OUR ONE COOL
DAY AS THE HIGH MOVES ACROSS AND MIXING IS SHALLOW. A LITTLE WARM
AND MOIST ADVECTION KICKS IN SUNDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW THIS SHOULD ONLY
BRING SOME ADDED CLOUD COVER AND MORE SEASONABLE LOW TEMPS...AND
PROBABLY NOT THE CHANCE FOR RAIN AS HINTED BY SOME GUIDANCE. CUTOFF
LOW CURRENTLY OVER BAJA CA OPENS UP AND ENTERS THE FLOW AND GUIDANCE
IS LIKELY HANGING ON TO RAIN WITH THIS FEATURE FOR TOO LONG DESPITE
HOW MUCH IT WEAKENS AS IT CROSSES OUR LONGITUDE. WILL OPT FOR THE
WEAKEST AND MOST SOUTH-SUPPRESSED SOLUTION.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...BACK INTO THE FAMILIAR TERRITORY OF MILD
CONDITIONS BY MONDAY AS LOW LEVEL HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST. MID
LEVEL FLOW WILL BE QUITE FLAT KEEPING THAT PART OF THE COLUMN DRY.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY TRY TO ADVECT AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE
HIGH AS INDICATED BY SOME GUIDANCE BUT PROBABLY NOT TO THE EXTENT
INDICATED. WILL ONLY SHOW A SMALL AND GRADUAL INCREASE IN POPS BY
TUESDAY AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND TIGHTENS THE CHANNEL OF
MOISTURE ADVECTION. BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL COMES WITH
ACTUAL FROPA WHICH LOOKS LIKE LATE WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
AMPLITUDE ALOFT REMAINS VERY LOW SO EVEN POST FROPA TEMPS WILL BE
WARMER THAN NORMAL...JUST NOT TO THE EXTENT OF THOSE THROUGH THE MID
WEEK PERIOD.

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...SEA FOG IS OCCURRING THIS MORNING WITHIN A MARINE LAYER
THAT IS PRIMARILY EAST OF THE MYR/ILM TERMINALS DUE TO SOUTHWESTERLY
COMPONENT WINDS. BUT THE CRE TERMINAL UNFORTUNATELY IS WITHIN THIS
MARINE LAYER DUE TO ITS LOCATION ON THE COAST AND IS RESULTING IN
MVFR VISIBILITIES...WITH A SCATTERED TO BROKEN 500 FOOT STRATUS
LAYER. THE FLO/LBT TERMINALS ARE CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING LOW VFR
LEVEL CEILINGS. DUE TO SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT WINDS EXPECT THE
CHANCE OF IFR TO REMAIN LOW AT THE MYR/ILM TERMINALS...BUT AT THE
CRE TERMINALS THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A HIGHER CHANCE OF IFR
OCCURRENCE THROUGH 14-15Z. THE FLO/LBT TERMINALS ARE CURRENTLY
EXPERIENCING LOW VFR LEVEL CEILINGS. EXCEPT FOR CRE...MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE MOST LIKELY THIS MORNING WITH TEMPO SHOWERS
MAINLY AT FLO/LBT.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINALS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH LIKELY.
THUNDERSTORMS/TEMPO IFR WILL BE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AT FLO/LBT AND
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. AFTER FROPA
EXPECT RAPID IMPROVEMENT TO VFR WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCE OF IFR/FOG EARLY MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATER TUESDAY. OTHERWISE VFR.

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM FRIDAY...STRONG SOUTHWEST SCA CRITERIA WINDS TO AFFECT
THE ILM COASTAL WATERS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT INTO THIS EVENING.
POST FRONTAL TOGHTENED SFC PG NW WINDS AFTER MIDNIGHT...COMBINED
WITH CAA SURGE...TO CONTINUE A STRONGLY WORDED SCA WITH FEW GUSTS
REACHING GALE FORCE...35 KT. AS A RESULT...THE NEXT 24 HRS ACROSS
THE ILM COASTAL WATERS ARE NOT RECOMMENDED FOR DINGYS. LOOK FOR SEAS
TO PEAK IN THE 5 TO 9 FT RANGE ...HIGHEST SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
WATERS OFF CAPE FEAR. 41013 FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY WELL BEYOND THE
COASTAL WATERS...COULD PEAK 10-13 FT RANGE DUE TO SSTS IN THE 60S
ALLOWING GALE FORCE SUSTAINED WINDS TO MIX DOWN TO THE OCEAN SFC.
OVERALL...LOOK FOR PERIODS IN THE 5 TO 8 SECOND RANGE.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...SATURDAYS CONDITIONS MAY STILL REQUIRE SOME
CAUTIONARY HEADLINES AS THE MARINE ZONES FIND THEMSELVES STILL IN
MODERATELY STRONG POST COLD FRONTAL FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE CAROLINAS ON SUNDAY BRINGING A NORTHEASTERLY WIND THAT WILL
DIMINISH AS THE AFTERNOON WEARS ON. A GENERAL 2 TO 4 FT SEA STATE
WILL ABATE AS THIS OCCURS. A SLIGHT VEER OF THE VERY LIGHT WINDS BY
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL OCCUR AS A WEAK TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST.
SEAS WILL HAVE SETTLED ALL THE WAY DOWN TO JUST 2 FT OR LESS BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...A VERY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE IN PLACE
ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE RATHER SPREAD OUT ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES AS WELL AS OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN. SO WHILE IT IS FAIRLY CERTAIN THAT WIND SPEEDS WILL
BE LOW THERE IS SOME INHERENT UNCERTAINTY REGARDING WHAT THE WIND
DIRECTION WILL BE. SEAS WILL ACCORDINGLY BE ABOUT AS SMALL AS THEY
GET AND RUN LESS THAN 2 FT ESPECIALLY CLOSE TO SHORE. NOT MUCH
CHANGE IN WIND SPEED BUT A BETTER DEFINED ONSHORE WIND DIRECTION
WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH DRIFTS EAST.

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
AMZ250-252-254-256.

NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...DCH/HDL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CLEVELAND OH

654 PM EST SAT FEB 25 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL QUICKLY SWING EAST
OF THE AREA EARLY TONIGHT...AND RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY WILL WEAKEN AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THIS LOW WILL PASS
NORTH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE FOR TUESDAY.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
A COMBINATION OF AN AIRMASS DRYING OUT...HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
TOWARD THE AREA AND SUNSET HAS CAUSED THE SNOW SHOWERS TO DECREASE
QUICKLY. UPDATED TO CANCEL ALL HEADLINES. WEST WINDS WILL CAUSE
SOME DRIFTING SNOW INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. ELSEWHERE
CONTINUING A THREAT OF SNOW SHOWERS WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION
EXPECTED. NO CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LATEST RADAR SHOWING DISORGANIZED AREA OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN 2/3 OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. GIVEN LATEST OBS ACROSS THE AREA COMBINED WITH
RADAR...WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO HEADLINES GOING INTO THE
EVENING HOURS...AND WILL KEEP EARLY MENTION OF LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THIS AREA. ACROSS WESTERN AREAS MENTION
CHC AND SLGT CHC ACROSS THE FAR WEST.

WITH THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT BEGINNING AT 7PM...ACCUMS MENTIONED
FOR TONIGHT WILL BE RATHER LIGHT AS THE BULK OF THE MORE
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE DIMINISHING BY THAT POINT.
WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING TO BECOME MORE
DISORGANIZED AND MOVING THINKING ANOTHER INCH OR TWO ACROSS MOST
LOCATIONS.

AFTER MIDNIGHT RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE AREA WILL CAUSE SNOW
SHOWERS TO DIMINISH FURTHER TO PERHAPS SOME LINGERING FLURRIES
THROUGH AROUND 3AM AT THE LATEST ACROSS THE FAR EAST. LOCAL MODELS
AS WELL AS THE HRRR HAVE HANDLED THIS SITUATION REASONABLY WELL
THIS AFTERNOON...SO THOSE ALONG WITH MAV AND MET POPS INDICATING
LITTLE FOR SNOW SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT.

WENT SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN GUIDANCE ON TEMPS MAINLY ACROSS THE
EAST. WINDS WILL REMAIN UP A BIT OVERNIGHT COMBINED WITH CLOUD
COVER AND LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES. ACROSS THE WEST SOME
CLEARING MAY HELP BRING TEMPS DOWN A BIT BUT WINDS MAY STILL BE A
FACTOR THERE. OVERALL WENT MID 20S ALONG THE LAKESHORE...LOWER 20S
ACROSS THE EAST TO PERHAPS UPPER TEEN TO AROUND 20 FOR WESTERN
AREAS.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL CONTAIN PROGRESSIVE FEATURES MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE AREA FOR SUNDAY
ALLOWING FOR SOME SUNSHINE ACROSS THE AREA AND MODERATING TEMPS.
WILL SEE HOW WELL NE OH/NW PA LOCATIONS MODERATE...SO DIDN/T GO
QUITE AS WARM THERE. THINKING MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD MODERATE TO
NEAR 40 OR BETTER ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST. MEANWHILE MODELS
FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS MAY SPREAD SOME CLOUDS INTO THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA SUNDAY...BUT OTHERWISE DRY.

LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. BULK
OF ENERGY AND PRECIP WITH THE LOW EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA
MONDAY. LITTLE CHANGE OF AIRMASS EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN QUICKLY MOVES EAST OF THE
AREA TUESDAY. GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING CLOUDS BUILDING IN AHEAD OF
THE NEXT LOW THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. KEPT POPS LOW ACROSS THE
AREA EARLY TUESDAY...BUT THEN MOST MODELS INDICATING RAIN MOVING
INTO THE AREA BY THE END OF THE DAY. WITH THAT INCREASE POPS TO
HIGH CHC/LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE TRICKY GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
RADIATING WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. GFS STRONGER WITH WAA ON
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT PUSHING WARM FRONT WELL NORTH OF THE
AREA. MEANWHILE ECMWF SHOWING WARM FRONT STILL ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT SUGGESTING COOLER TEMPS. FOR NOW BLENDED THE TWO
WITH TEMPS.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEDNESDAY WILL START OFF WARM (TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S) AS WE LIE IN
THE WARM SECTOR OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE SOME DIFFERENCES
IN TIMING REGARDING THE PRECIPITATION ALONG THE OCCLUDED FRONT AND
WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH A DRYING TREND
FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL NOT BE COOL ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW
TO DEVELOP.

A DRYING TREND WILL OCCUR ON THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVERHEAD WITH ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY AS THE NEXT
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION.

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DOMINANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND HAS BECOME MORE CELLULAR IN NATURE AS
IT SLOWLY PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS LAKE ERIE. THIS SOUTHERN TREND IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AS WINDS ALOFT VEER TO MORE
NORTHWESTERLY. YNG/CLE/ERI WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH ROUGHLY 21Z AND MAY SEE VISIBILITIES DROP BELOW 1 MILE IF ANY
OF THE HEAVIER SQUALLS IMPACT THE AIRPORTS. FURTHER INLAND AT
TOL/MFD/CAK SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER IN NATURE BUT COULD
BRIEFLY DROP VISIBILITIES INTO THE IFR RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS LAKE ERIE. CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY SCATTER OUT FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH AROUND 22Z WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT TONIGHT AS THEY SHIFT
AROUND TO THE SOUTH. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF NON-VFR WILL RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE AT TIMES THROUGH THURSDAY.

.MARINE...
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON RANGE FROM NEAR 20 KNOTS ON THE WEST END OF
LAKE ERIE TO NEAR 30 KNOTS THE EAST END OF THE LAKE. WILL MAINTAIN
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WHICH CONTINUE ON THE WEST END OF THE
LAKE INTO THIS EVENING AND THROUGH 4 AM ON THE EAST END OF THE LAKE.
WINDS WILL DECREASE CONSIDERABLY OVERNIGHT AS THE RIDGE BUILDS WITH
WAVES BEING A LITTLE SLOWER TO SUBSIDE.

A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE LAKE ON SUNDAY WITH
CONDITIONS BECOMING MORE STABLE DESPITE STRONG WINDS IN THE COLUMN
ALOFT. CONDITIONS MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THE WESTERN
END OF THE LAKE BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS INCREASING ON THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE LAKE BEHIND A COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED EAST OF CLEVELAND AND WE MAY EVEN
APPROACH GALES FOR A BRIEF WHILE.

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LEZ147>149.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
LEZ142>144.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LEZ145-
146.

$$
SYNOPSIS...ABE
NEAR TERM...ABE/KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...ABE
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...KEC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CLEVELAND OH

1030 AM EST FRI FEB 24 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS OHIO TO LAKE ERIE AND
SOUTHERN ONTARIO CANADA. THE LOW WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT EAST ACROSS
THE AREA LATER TONIGHT. A TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE REGION LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

WILL ADD WIND ADVISORY FOR THE TOL AREA TO BE CONSISTENT WITH IWA
WIND ADVISORY AND THE HIGH WIND WARNING JUST SOUTH NEAR FDY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:

MAIN CONCERN FOR THE AFTERNOON IS THAT WIND GUSTS WILL REACH NEAR
50 KTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. BREAK
IN THE CLOUD COVER OVER WESTERN OHIO THIS MORNING WILL PERMIT SOME
HEATING AND ALLOW THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO MIX/DEEPEN AND TAP HIGHER
WINDS ALOFT WHICH WILL LIKELY MIX TO THE SURFACE. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
FOR THE AFTERNOON FROM MFD TO YNG AND CLE AND ERI SHOW THE MIXED
LAYER TAPING 60KT WINDS. THE HRRR MODEL ALSO PRODUCES SURFACE WIND
GUSTS OF 45 TO 50 KT THIS AFTERNOON. WILL UPGRADE THE WIND
ADVISORY TO A HIGH WIND WARNING. ONLY MINOR OTHER CHANGES PLANNED.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE LAKE EFFECT IS EXPECTED TO PICK UP IN EARNEST TONIGHT AS FLOW
BECOMES WELL ALIGNED. MAINLY A WEST TO WEST NORTHWEST FLOW IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT AND THIS SHOULD ENHANCE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS OVER
THE EXTREME NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA. LAKE TO AIR TEMP
DIFFERENCE IS NOT ALL THAT EXCITING WITH CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY
EXPECTED. HOWEVER...WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND PERSISTENT FLOW
EXPECTED...LOOKING AT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS REACHING THE THRESHOLD FOR
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY CRITERIA STARTING AROUND 1 AM EST TONIGHT.
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS COULD REACH NEARLY A FOOT IN SOME OF THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE SPREAD OUT
OVER SUCH A LONG PERIOD OF TIME THAT WE DONT ANTICIPATE ISSUING A
WARNING AT THIS TIME.

AS THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST SATURDAY NIGHT...THE FLOW WILL BE
CUT OFF RATHER QUICKLY AND THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE LAKE EFFECT
SNOW.

FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA...LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED OVER THE
REGION AND LOOKING AT LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS MAINLY DUE TO THE SYNOPTIC
SNOW WITH THE LOW PRESSURE. THE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OUTSIDE THE LAKE
EFFECT AREAS OF NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA WILL TAPER
OFF INTO SATURDAY AND THEN DISSIPATE ENTIRELY BY SATURDAY NIGHT.
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE.

AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY...FAIR WEATHER
WILL RETURN AS WELL. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST TO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
ALLOWING ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD MORE PRECIPITATION INTO
THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. MOST OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FEATURE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE STORM CENTER SO THE
PRECIPITATION THREAT WILL BE MINIMIZED. FAIR WEATHER RETURNS FOR
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE INCREASE
WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKING PLACE ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER. AS LOW MOVES NORTHEAST OF THE REGION
MONDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK INTO THE 20S AGAIN FOR LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS ARE ACTUALLY IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH A STORM SYSTEM THAT
WILL MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON TUESDAY TO THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES BY WEDNESDAY. WE SHOULD BE ON THE WARM SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM
YET AGAIN. HOWEVER AS THE PRECIPITATION STARTS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY THERE COULD BE SOME SNOW FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE REGION. MORE DETAILS ON THIS NEXT NEXT FEW DAYS. SO EXPECT TO
SEE RAIN FOR MOST LOCATIONS FOR WEDNESDAY. IT WILL BE COOLER IN THE
WAKE OF THIS STORM SYSTEM ON THURSDAY BUT NOT COLD ENOUGH TO
GENERATE ANYTHING MORE THAN A FEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.

AFTER HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IT
APPEARS WE WILL REMAIN IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO NEAR 40 ON THURSDAY.

.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO NEAR LAKE ERIE THIS MORNING AND
THEN NORTHEAST TO LAKE ONTARIO BY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL BRING AN
EXTREME MIX OF CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY.
SEVERAL LOCATIONS ACROSS THE EAST WILL ACTUALLY SEE VFR CONDITIONS
FOR A SHORT PERIOD THIS MORNING. AN AREA OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION ALONG A COLD FRONT WITH MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY.
AS THESE SHOWERS PASS THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST
AND WEST. WIND GUSTS IN THE 35 TO 45 KNOT RANGE WILL BE COMMON FOR
MOST LOCATIONS. AS THE COLDER AIR RETURNS EXPECT ALL LOCATIONS TO
RETURN TO MVFR CONDITIONS. WHERE SNOW OCCURS THERE WILL BE PERIODS
OF IFR...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM KFDY TO KERI. WINDS WILL
DECREASE THROUGH THE EVENING. LOCATIONS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE SNOW SHOWERS WITH PERIODIC IFR CONDITIONS.
ELSEWHERE MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE.

OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF NON-VFR LIKELY SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING.

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE OVER EAST CENTRAL INDIANA WILL REACH LAKE ERIE BY MID
MORNING THEN CONTINUE TO LAKE ONTARIO BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
CAUSE WINDS TO 34 TO 40 KNOT GALES THIS AFTERNOON. DID NOT INCLUDE
THE WESTERN BASIN IN THE GALE WARNING SO HAD TO ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WITH WINDS TO 30 KNOTS.

AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSES LAKE ERIE SATURDAY IT WILL HELP
TO KEEP WINDS UP ENOUGH TO KEEP AT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
GOING INTO AT LEAST SATURDAY EVENING.

A RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE LAKE EARLY SUNDAY...SHIFTING EAST BY
MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE ERIE TUESDAY.

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ008>013-
017>022-027>032-036>038-047.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ014-023-
033-089.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ003-006-007.
PA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ001>003.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
PAZ001>003.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LEZ061-144>149-
164>169.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST SATURDAY FOR LEZ142-143.

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...REL
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...MULLEN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CLEVELAND OH

954 AM EST FRI FEB 24 2012

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE AFTERNOON IS THAT WIND GUSTS WILL REACH NEAR
50 KTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. BREAK
IN THE CLOUD COVER OVER WESTERN OHIO THIS MORNING WILL PERMIT SOME
HEATING AND ALLOW THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO MIX/DEEPEN AND TAP HIGHER
WINDS ALOFT WHICH WILL LIKELY MIX TO THE SURFACE. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
FOR THE AFTERNOON FROM MFD TO YNG AND CLE AND ERI SHOW THE MIXED
LAYER TAPING 60KT WINDS. THE HRRR MODEL ALSO PRODUCES SURFACE WIND
GUSTS OF 45 TO 50 KT THIS AFTERNOON. WILL UPGRADE THE WIND
ADVISORY TO A HIGH WIND WARNING. ONLY MINOR OTHER CHANGES PLANNED.

AS THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST SATURDAY NIGHT...THE FLOW WILL BE
CUT OFF RATHER QUICKLY AND THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE LAKE EFFECT
SNOW.

AFTER HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IT
APPEARS WE WILL REMAIN IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO NEAR 40 ON THURSDAY.

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO NEAR LAKE ERIE THIS MORNING AND
THEN NORTHEAST TO LAKE ONTARIO BY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL BRING AN
EXTREME MIX OF CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY.
SEVERAL LOCATIONS ACROSS THE EAST WILL ACTUALLY SEE VFR CONDITIONS
FOR A SHORT PERIOD THIS MORNING. AN AREA OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION ALONG A COLD FRONT WITH MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY.
AS THESE SHOWERS PASS THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST
AND WEST. WIND GUSTS IN THE 35 TO 45 KNOT RANGE WILL BE COMMON FOR
MOST LOCATIONS. AS THE COLDER AIR RETURNS EXPECT ALL LOCATIONS TO
RETURN TO MVFR CONDITIONS. WHERE SNOW OCCURS THERE WILL BE PERIODS
OF IFR...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM KFDY TO KERI. WINDS WILL
DECREASE THROUGH THE EVENING. LOCATIONS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE SNOW SHOWERS WITH PERIODIC IFR CONDITIONS.
ELSEWHERE MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE.

OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF NON-VFR LIKELY SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING.

AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSES LAKE ERIE SATURDAY IT WILL HELP
TO KEEP WINDS UP ENOUGH TO KEEP AT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
GOING INTO AT LEAST SATURDAY EVENING.

A RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE LAKE EARLY SUNDAY...SHIFTING EAST BY
MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE ERIE TUESDAY.

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ008>013-
017>022-027>032-036>038-047.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ014-023-
033-089.
PA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ001>003.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
PAZ001>003.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LEZ061-144>149-
164>169.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST SATURDAY FOR LEZ142-143.

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...REL
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...MULLEN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

616 AM EST FRI FEB 24 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
AN INTENSE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF
THE AREA DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY...DRIVING A
STRONG COLD FRONT EAST ACROSS THE STATE. COLDER AIR WILL SURGE
INTO THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FROM LATE
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING. STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO
ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. SEASONABLY COLD AND WINDY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOWS
DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE AND OVER THE WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE AREA ON SUNDAY BEFORE YIELDING TO A
FRONTAL SYSTEM LIFTING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO SOUTHEASTERN
CANADA ON MONDAY.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
INITIAL SLUG OF WAA PCPN HAS MOVED NEWD INTO THE POCONOS AND
CATSKILLS. THE LATEST RADAR SHOWS AREA OF SHOWERS CONFINED MAINLY TO
SRN PA. EXPIRED THE WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR THE NRN TIER AS SNOW IS
LONE GONE AND SFC-850MB TEMPS ARE SLOWLY WARMING. LATEST RUC DATA
AND MESO OBS SUGGEST P TYPES SHOULD BE ALL RAIN.

COMPLEX AREA OF LOW PRES CENTERED JUST EAST OF CMH AT 10Z WILL
SLOWLY DEEPEN AND OCCLUDE NWD TO VCNTY LAKE ERIE BY 18Z. SFC PRES
FALLS IN THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL INDUCE A SECONDARY
TRIPLE POINT LOW SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE NEAR THE WV/MD
PANHANDLES...WITH ERODING STABILITY IN THE NARROW WARM SECTOR AHEAD
OF TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN SPINE. MODEL
DATA SHOWS THE NRN EXTENT OF THE WARM SECTOR POSSIBLY BREAKING INTO
S-CENTRAL PA AND FAR LWR SUSQ VLY THIS AFTN. SREF GUID SUPPORTS
MENTION OF SCHC T OVR THE SRN TIER.

WV AND IR SATL SHOWS MUCH OF CENTRAL PA IN THE DRY SLOT WITH
POTENT H5 VORTEX ROTATING THRU THE MIDWEST. THE MODELS ARE GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE SYSTEM ALOFT AS IT TAKES ON A SLGT NEGATIVE
TILT PIVOTING NEWD ACRS THE ERN GRT LKS. STG WAA AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
TO THE N/NE OF PRIMARY LOW INTERSECTING RETREATING WARM FNTL ZONE
AT THE NOSE OF S/SW LLJ WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SCT TO NMRS SHOWERS
INTO THE AFTN. BASIN AVG QPF WILL BE ON THE LGT SIDE THRU 18Z WITH
AMTS LESS THAN 0.25 INCHES. EXPECT SOME ENHANCEMENT OF PCPN OVR ERN
PA LATER THIS AFTN INTO THE EVE AS RIBBON OF ABOVE NORMAL PWATS IS
DRAWN NWD AHEAD OF SHARPENING COLD FRONT.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD CLEAR ERN AREAS BY 00Z. STG DEEP LYR CAA WILL
PROMOTE VERY EFFICIENT BLYR MIXING...WHICH SHOULD TAP 50-60KT WINDS
AT 850MB AND TRANSFER A GOOD PORTION OF THE HIGH MOMENTUM AIR ALOFT
DOWN TO THE SFC. THE TIMING OF THE STRONGEST WIND GUSTS /FROM MID
AFTN IN THE WEST TO MID EVE IN THE EAST/ IS LATER THAN PREVIOUSLY
FCST AND THEREFORE EXTENDED HWW/WIND ADY THRU 12Z SAT. COULD SEE THE
ADVY GOING FURTHER INTO SAT BUT WILL LET LATER SHIFTS HANDLE THIS.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
FCST BECOMES MORE STRAIGHTFORWARD DURING THE SECOND HALF OF DAY 1.
THE COLD FRONT WILL PLOW THROUGH THE CWA...LEAVING BEHIND SEASONABLY
COLD AND VERY BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO
THE 20S AND 30S. ASIDE FROM THE STRONG WINDS...EXPECT LAKE EFFECT
AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP IN GUSTY POST-FRONTAL WNWLY
FLOW REGIME. HAVE ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVY FOR THE FAVORED
SNOWBELT REGION/NW MTNS. ALSO EXPECT A FEW TO SEVERAL INCHES OF
WIND-DRIVEN SNOW ACCUM OVER LAUREL HIGHLANDS...AND LATER SHIFTS MAY
NEED TO HOIST A HEADLINE FOR THIS AREA.
&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLDEST AIR IN ALMOST 2 WEEKS ARRIVES ON SAT...WITH BRISK
NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUING TO FREQUENTLY GUST IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. HIGHS WILL FALL BACK NOTICEABLY...BUT
STILL BE JUST 3-5F BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE FEBRUARY. MAX TEMPS WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S IN THE MTNS TO LOWER 40S IN THE SE ZONES.

SAT NIGHT BRINGS TEMPS IN THE TEENS AND 20S AS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY DECREASE AND SNOW SHOWERS COME TO AN END AFTER MIDNIGHT
AS THE 850 MB RIDGE SLIDES INTO WRN PENN AND THE BASE OF THE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION DROPS TO BELOW 3 KFT AGL. A FEW LOCATIONS
ACROSS THE NRN MTNS WITH SNOW COVER COULD DIP INTO THE HIGH SINGLE
DIGITS TWD 12Z SUNDAY.

UPPER TROUGH QUICKLY LIFTS OUT BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND...RETURNING
PA TO A MILD ZONAL FLOW. ONE PACIFIC SHORTWAVE SHOULD RAPIDLY PASS
TO OUR NORTH LATE MONDAY BRINGING JUST SOME PERIODS OF MAINLY MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS...BUT PRODUCING LITTLE OR NO PRECIP AND KEEPING
IT BREEZY.

ANOTHER POTENTIALLY MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM SHOULD IMPACT THE
REGION FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. 00Z US/EURO MDL CONSENSUS
INDICATES A SFC LOW TRACK THRU THE UPPER MIDWEST/UPPER GLAKES
REGION WITH BLOCKING HIGH PRES OVR NEW ENGLAND. THIS SCENARIO
COULD PRODUCE SOME MINOR AMTS OF SNOW/MIXED PRECIP ACROSS MAINLY
NRN PA WED INTO THU. HOWEVER...THE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM
APPEARS QUITE MILD...WITH 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES IN THE
5500-5560M RANGE OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE COMMONWEALTH. THE BULK
OF THE PRECIP SHOULD FALL AS RAIN...WITH SOME GUSTY WEST WINDS AND
MAINLY MTN SNOW SHOWERS IN ITS WAKE FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.

FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO RIDE WITH A CHC OF EITHER SNOW/RAIN
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTH WEDNESDAY...AND A CHC OF
PLAIN RAIN IN THE CENTRAL AND SRN VALLEYS.

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CIGS HAVE STEADILY LOWERED SINCE 06Z INTO MVFR AND IFR FLGT
CATS...AND EXPECT LOW CIGS TO PERSIST THRU THIS MORNING. PRIMARY
SFC LOW WILL LIFT NWD FM CMH INTO NW PA...WHILE SECONDARY LOW
DEVELOPS IN THE LEE OF THE APPLCHNS. SFC WNDS WILL SHIFT AROUND
FROM E/NE TO MORE OF A SLY COMPONENT BY THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTN...WITH CONDS GENERALLY IMPROVING TO MVFR. A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL PLOW ACROSS ALL TERMINALS BTWN 18-00Z...ACCOMPANIED BY SCT TO
NMRS SHOWERS WITH PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER POSSIBLE SRN SXNS.
POST-FRONTAL WESTERLY WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40KTS WILL BE
COMMON. THE STRONG DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD YIELD MVFR TO VFR CIGS E
OF THE MTNS. IFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED OVR THE WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN
AIRFIELDS BFD-JST IN FQNT SNOW SHOWERS AND BLOWING SNOW.

OUTLOOK...
SAT...WINDY. IFR/SHSN WRN SXNS.
SUN...MVFR BCMG VFR WRN SXNS. NO SIG WX.
MON...VFR. SCHC OF MVFR -SHRA NRN TERMINALS.
TUE...VFR TO MVFR WITH -RA POSS LATE OVR WRN TERMINALS.

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST SATURDAY
FOR PAZ028-037-041-042-046-049>053-056>059-063>066.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-026-027-035-036-045.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM EST SATURDAY
FOR PAZ024-025-033-034.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR PAZ024-025-
033-034.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST
SATURDAY FOR PAZ004-005.

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...LAMBERT
AVIATION...STEINBUGL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY

NWS RAPID CITY SD

345 PM MST FRI FEB 24 2012

.DISCUSSION...THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSING THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON SUNDAY WILL PRODUCE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 40
MPH WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH. HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR
THE NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 240 PM MST FRI FEB 24 2012/

DISCUSSION...
LONG WAVE RIDGE NEAR 130W AND TROF NEAR 95W WITH CONTINUED FLOW OF
COOL...UNSTABLE AIR OVER THE AREA TODAY. SHORT WAVE RIDGE
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST FORECAST TO BE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. NEXT UPSTREAM TROF WILL CROSS THE
PACIFIC NW COAST LATE TONIGHT AND MOVE QUICKLY EAST WARD.

STEEP LAPSE RATES AND A BIT OF MID TROPOSPHERIC Q VECTOR
CONVERGENCE HAVE SUPPORTED THE DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW SHOWERS AGAIN
TODAY. MID AFTERNOON RADAR AND SATELLITE OBS INDICATE THESE ARE
FINALLY WINDING DOWN AS SUBSIDENCE WARMING FORECAST BY BOTH THE
NAM AND RUC MODELS SEEMS TO BE HAPPENING. REMNANT CLOUDS AND A
LITTLE PRECIP WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS OVER UPSLOPE
AREAS OF THE BLACK HILLS. A FEW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO RETURN TO NW
WY AND THE NW PORTIONS OF SD WITH APPROACH OF NEXT SHORT WAVE TROF.

NAM AND MESO MODELS INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR FAIRLY STRONG DOWNSLOPE
WINDS OVER THE NE SLOPES OF THE BLACK HILLS SATURDAY MORNING INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON. MODELS INDICATE ABOUT A 6MB PRESSURE DIFFERENCE
ACROSS THE HILLS AT 18Z AND THE NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW 50KT
WINDS AT ABOUT 2000FT AGL OVER THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS.

SATURDAY NIGHT...TRANSIENT UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS QUICKLY EAST AS NEXT
STRONG UPPER SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. BOTH 500MB AND
700MB CLOSED LOWS TRACK NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH BEST
CHANCES OF SNOW ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING...THE BLACK HILLS...AND
NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. BEST CHANCES
OF ACCUMULATING SNOWS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS AND 20S.

SUNDAY...UPPER LOW SLIDES INTO MINNESOTA AS BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
BECOMES MORE WEST TO NORTHWEST. PRECIP CHANCES DIMINISH QUICKLY ON
SUNDAY MORNING...BUT VERY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND BEHIND THE
EXITING LOW ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS IN EXCESS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH
HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 30S
TO LOWER 40S.

EXTENDED...POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG WINTER STORM TO AFFECT THE AREA
EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS/GEFS/ECMWF IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
MONDAY/TUESDAY WITH UPPER TROF SWINGING THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
AND INTO THE PLAINS. GFS/GEFS/ECMWF SFC-500MB LOW TRACKS
SIMILAR...ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA TO SOUTHEAST SOUTH
DAKOTA/NORTHWEST IOWA. EVEN THOUGH TRACK IS SIMILAR...THERE IS
SOME STRENGTH AND TIMING DIFFERENCES. ALL GEFS MEMBERS SHOW
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. GIVEN HIGHER MODEL
CONFIDENCE...HAVE BOOSTED POPS FOR MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. WIND
COULD ALSO BE A BIG FACTOR DEPENDING ON STRENGTH OF SURFACE LOW.
UPPER LOW DEPARTS THE AREA WEDNESDAY...WITH FLAT UPPER RIDGE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. NEXT UPPER TROF TO AFFECT THE
AREA THURSDAY.

AVIATION...18Z TAFS
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH IFR VSBY. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT...WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHEAST
WYOMING AND THE BLACK HILLS.

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 5 PM MST SUNDAY FOR BUTTE-HAAKON-
HARDING-NORTHERN FOOT HILLS-NORTHERN MEADE CO PLAINS-
PENNINGTON CO PLAINS-PERKINS-RAPID CITY-SOUTHERN MEADE CO
PLAINS-STURGIS/PIEDMONT FOOT HILLS-ZIEBACH.

WY...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...07

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY

NWS RAPID CITY SD

240 PM MST FRI FEB 24 2012

.DISCUSSION...
LONG WAVE RIDGE NEAR 130W AND TROF NEAR 95W WITH CONTINUED FLOW OF
COOL...UNSTABLE AIR OVER THE AREA TODAY. SHORT WAVE RIDGE
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST FORECAST TO BE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. NEXT UPSTREAM TROF WILL CROSS THE
PACIFIC NW COAST LATE TONIGHT AND MOVE QUICKLY EAST WARD.

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH IFR VSBY. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT...WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHEAST
WYOMING AND THE BLACK HILLS.

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...15 AND BARBER
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...07

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION VISIT...

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL

313 AM CST SUN FEB 26 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
06Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS A LOW WEST NORTHWEST OF KPIR AND ANOTHER NEAR
KHSI. A WARM FRONT RAN SOUTH FROM THE KPIR LOW TO THE LOW NEAR KHSI.
A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT RAN FROM THE KHSI LOW SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL
MISSOURI. DEW POINTS WERE GENERALLY IN THE TEENS AND 20S ACROSS THE
MIDWEST AND PLAINS. SATELLITE SHOWS PLENTY OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST.

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
WINDY BUT DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE CWFA FOR THE NEXT
36 HRS.

THE TWO QUESTIONS FOR TODAY IS HOW WARM WILL IT GET AND WHETHER
HEADLINES ARE NEEDED FOR THE WIND.

THE SNOW PACK ACROSS THE CWFA IS COLD AND VERY COMPACTED. THUS
CONSIDERABLE ENERGY WILL GO INTO WARMING IT UP TO PROMOTE MELTING.
AS A RESULT TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD DOWN OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE CWFA WHERE THE SNOW PACK IS THE DEEPEST. A COMPLETE MELT SHOULD
OCCUR TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 40 PERCENT OF THE CWFA WITH AREAS
FROM THE I-80 CORRIDOR UP TO HWY 30 SEEING NEARLY A COMPLETE MELT.
THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CWFA SHOULD SEE SNOW DEPTH REDUCED BY ONE
THIRD TO ONE HALF BY EVENING.

THUS A LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT SHOULD BE SEEN ACROSS THE CWFA
TODAY WITH LOWER 40S IN THE FAR NORTH TO NEAR 60 IN THE EXTREME
SOUTH.

AS FOR HEADLINES FOR WIND...THE SNOW PACK WILL HAVE A STABILIZING
AFFECT ON LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES DURING THE DAY. INDEED THE MODELS
SHOW THIS TO VARYING DEGREES WITH POTENTIALLY ONLY THE SOUTH QUARTER
TO THIRD OF THE CWFA SEEING STEEP LAPSE RATES AND DEEPER MIXING BY
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

CURRENTLY...THERE IS A WEAK POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY WORKING
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CWFA WHICH IS JUST AHEAD OF THE 500 METER WIND
MAX OF 50-60 KTS. THIS PV ANOMALY MOVES OUT OF THE CWFA BY SUNRISE
AND THE 500 METER WIND MAX IS JUST EAST OF THE CWFA BY MID DAY. IF
WINDS WERE TO ACHIEVE ADVISORY CRITERIA IT WOULD BE DURING A NARROW
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FROM LATE MORNING UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON DURING
THE STRONGEST DIURNAL HEATING. THE LACK OF DEEP MIXING UNTIL MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON WHEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS STARTING TO RELAX
SUGGESTS THAT SUSTAINED WINDS AND GUSTS WILL FALL SHORT OF ADVISORY
CRITERIA. HOWEVER...IT WILL BE QUITE WINDY AND WILL MENTION THAT IN
THE HWO.

TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA UNDER BREEZY
CONDITIONS. OTHER THAN SOME PASSING CLOUDS THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL
BE DRY.
..08..

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY...
PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE LONGER RANGE REMAINS THE STRONG SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE 00Z MODEL
RUNS REMAIN REASONABLY CLOSE ON THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THE UPPER
TROF/LOW AND THE SURFACE LOW. THE MAJORITY OF THE SOLUTIONS TRACK
THE SURFACE LOW ALONG THE IA/MN BORDER LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF WAS SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THIS TRACK ON IT/S 00Z
RUN...WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH IT/S PAST FEW RUNS.

THE WORK WEEK WILL GET OFF TO A QUIET START. A VIGOROUS UPPER TROF
DIGGING INTO CENTRAL CA WILL FORCE SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGING THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING. WITH THE LOW LEVEL
RIDGE TO OUR WEST EARLY MONDAY WE WILL STILL BE COLD ADVECTING IN
THE LOW LEVELS...THEN WINDS SHOULD DIE OFF DURING AFTERNOON WITH
ARRIVAL OF THE RIDGE AXIS. THIS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE
COOL SIDE...IN THE MID 30S NORTH TO MID 40S IN THE FAR SOUTH. THE
RIDGE WILL BE EAST OF THE CWFA BY MONDAY EVENING. SOUTHEAST FLOW
BECOMING ESTABLISHED WEST OF THE RIDGE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
FALLING MUCH DURING THE EVENING AND POSSIBLY RISING SOME AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE WEATHER WILL BECOME MORE
ACTIVE AS A STRONG STORM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THE UPPER TROF
OVER THE WESTERN U.S. DIGS SOUTH INTO AZ/NM BY TUESDAY MORNING THEN
LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING
OVER EASTERN CO...MOVES INTO EASTERN NE BY 00Z TUESDAY. THE SYSTEM
BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED TUESDAY NIGHT AS IT MOVES EAST THROUGH
NRN IA OR SRN MN. MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE SYSTEM DOWN SOME FROM
PREVIOUS RUNS RESULTING IN A SLOWER ONSET OF PRECIPITATION. POPS
WERE TRIMMED BACK SOME FOR LATE MONDAY NIGHT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
LIMITED TO THE WESTERN MOST ROW OF COUNTIES. ANY PRECIP BEGINNING
BEFORE 12Z TUESDAY WOULD LIKELY BE FZRA/SN MIX IN THE SW AND MAINLY
SNOW NW. DURING THE DAY TUESDAY A COMBINATION OF STRONG LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURN AND FORCING AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM ARGUES FOR HIGH END
LIKELY POPS WEST OF THE RIVER BY THE AFTERNOON AND CHANCE POPS EAST
OF THE RIVER. DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE TO OVERCOME LOW
LEVEL DRY AIR DURING THE MORNING SO HELD POPS MAINLY IN THE CHANCE
CATEGORY. ANY PRECIPITATION FALLING IN THE MORNING WILL BE A MIX
WITH R/FZRA POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTH AND SN/IP IN THE NORTH. BY THE
AFTERNOON THE THERMAL PROFILE WARMS ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN. A HIGH
PROBABILITY OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AS THE SURFACE
OCCLUSION LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CWFA. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
SOME WEAK ELEVATED CAPES ASSOCIATED WITH THE OCCLUDED FRONT SO KEPT
A MENTION OF THUNDER DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TUESDAY NIGHT
THE BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIMITED TO THE EVENING
THEN THE DRY SLOT WILL MOVE IN AFTER MIDNIGHT. HELD ONTO CHANCE
POPS FOR -SN WEDNESDAY WITH THE DRY SLOT OVER THE AREA. THE BETTER
CHANCE WILL BE IN THE FAR NORTH NEAR THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE DRIER
AIR. STRONG WESTERLY WINDS WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY AS
THE LOW MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. THE SOUTHERN HALF WHERE THERE IS A
BETTER CHANCE OF SOME SUN AND DEEPER MIXING COULD SEE SUSTAINED
WINDS APPROACHING 30 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH.

THE 00Z RUNS HAVE BACKED OFF ON PRECIP CHANCES OVER THE AREA FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK. IT APPEARS A SPLIT FLOW REGIME WILL BE IN PLACE BY
DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. 00Z ECMWF/GFS SOLUTIONS SHOW
NORTHERN/SOUTHERN STREAM TROFS MOVING OUT OF THE WESTERN U.S. AND
PHASING EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY LATE FRIDAY...KEEPING MOST
OF THE PRECIPITATION TO OUR EAST. ..DLF..

.AVIATION...
LLWS HAS YET TO BE REALIZED ACRS EASTERN IOWA AND ILLINOIS. PROFILES
FROM RADARS AND WIND PROFILERS AT 500 METERS HAVE 15-25 KT WNDS.
WINDS OF 50-60 KTS AT 500 METERS ARE BEING SEEN IN WESTERN PARTS OF
IOWA/MISSOURI. RUC TRENDS BRING THESE WINDS INTO EASTERN IA AND THE
MISS RIVER VALLEY ARND SUNRISE. THE THREAT OF LLWS SHOULD BE THE
GREATEST IN THE 11Z-14Z/26 TIME FRAME BEFORE MIXING INCREASES
SURFACE WIND SPEEDS. OTHERWISE...VFR WX WILL BE SEEN THROUGH 12Z/27.
LLWS MAY BE POSSIBLE AFT 00Z/26 WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT APPEARS
MARGINAL RIGHT NOW.
..08..

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DODGE CITY KS

306 AM CST SUN FEB 26 2012

...UPDATED SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 258 AM CST SUN FEB 26 2012

A SURFACE COLD WAS CROSSING SOUTHWEST KANSAS AS OF 07Z WITH 4-5MB
3HR PRESSURE RISES EVIDENT ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS. WIND SPEEDS
THIS MORNING BEHIND THIS FRONT HAVE BEEN AVERAGING BETWEEN 15 AND
20 MPH BRIEFLY. ALL THE MODELS THIS MORNING WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH MOVING THIS COLD FRONT QUICKLY INTO OKLAHOMA BY DAYBREAK WITH
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE THEN STARTING TO WORK ITS
WAY INTO PORTIONS OF FAR WESTERN KANSAS. THE NAM AND GFS PLACES THIS
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS FROM NEAR SYRACUSE TO DODGE CITY BY MID DAY AND
THEN EXPANDING IT EASTWARD LATE TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT.
NORTHEAST OF THIS RIDGE AXIS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE
A LITTLE STRONGER AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND MIXED LAYER WINDS
SUPPORTS WIND SPEEDS INCREASING INTO THE 20 TO 25 MPH EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION DRIER AIR WILL BE FILTERING INTO THE AREA
FROM THIS NORTHWEST FLOW WITH BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SUGGESTING THE
SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL FALL BACK INTO SINGLE DIGITS. USING THE
NAM AND GFS BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS AS A GUIDE FOR AFTERNOON
DEWPOINTS IT CURRENTLY APPEARS THAT MUCH OF SOUTHWEST AND NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS WILL HAVE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BOTTOMING AT OR BELOW
15 PERCENT. TAKING THESE LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES INTO ACCOUNT
ALONG WITH THE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHWEST
AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING
FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 96. FURTHER SOUTH AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO APPROACH 15 PERCENT BUT
WIND SPEEDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS STRONG.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY, HOWEVER BASED
ON THE 900-850MB TEMPERATURE TRENDS BETWEEN 00Z SUNDAY AND 00Z
MONDAY THE HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID
50S WHICH ARE NEAR CLIMATOLOGY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

TONIGHT THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST INTO CENTRAL KANSAS WITH
LIGHT NORTH WINDS PERSISTING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS EAST OF
DODGE CITY. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS PLACE THE 850MB BAROCLINIC ZONE
ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA OVERNIGHT WITH THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS KEEPING THE LOWER
DEWPOINTS/DRIER AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. ABOVE THE
850MB LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BEGIN TO
IMPROVE ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS AFTER MIDNIGHT. BASED MODEL
SOUNDINGS AND THE 290 INSENTROPIC SURFACE FROM THE NAM AND GFS
WILL BRING CLOUDS BACK INTO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST BY 09Z AND THEN
CONTINUE TO SPREAD THESE CLOUDS NORTH THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. THESE
INCREASING CLOUDS IN THE SOUTHWEST SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES WARMER
THAN GUIDANCE SUNDAY NIGHT. IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE THE
LIGHTER WINDS WILL BE LOCATED BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z MONDAY ALONG
WITH A LONGER PERIOD OF CLEAR SKIES WILL TREND TOWARDS THE COOL AS
THE MET/MAV.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 AM CST SUN FEB 26 2012

NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE OVERALL PATTERN OF THE
NUMERICAL MODELS FROM PREVIOUS RUNS WITH RESPECT TO THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD. A HIGH LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY STILL SURROUNDS THE
EVOLUTION OF THE INCOMING TROUGH/PV ANOMALY AND RESULTANT
PRECIPITATION/IMPACTS EXPECTATIONS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AGAIN
WITH YESTERDAYS RUN OF THE ECMWF, IT IS STRONGER WITH THE LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT AND THE POSITION OF THE UPPER JET SEEMS TO
ALLOW FOR BETTER LIFT AND MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS FOR PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE AREA. IN STARK CONTRAST THE GFS AND IT`S MOS FAMILY OF
PRODUCTS ARE MUCH DRIER OVER THE AREA SEEMINGLY DRY SLOTTING THE
BETTER PART OF WESTERN KANSAS QUICKLY ON TUESDAY. THIS IS MUCH LIKE
THE PATTERN OF HOW THE NAM DEVELOPS PRECIPITATION AS WELL. AS A
BASELINE FORECAST WE`VE GONE WITH THE NAM 3 HOURLY POPS FOR THE
MONDAY AND TUESDAY TIMEFRAME, WITH SOME ADJUSTMENT UPWARD ON TUESDAY
TO NOT TOTALLY DISCOUNT THE SLOWER AND DEEPER MORE EVOLVED ECMWF
MODEL. A LARGE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY ALSO REVOLVES AROUND JUST HOW
WINDY THE WESTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL BE BEHIND THE FRONT. IT IS SAFE
TO SAY AT LEAST A LOW END ADVISORY WIND EVENT SHOULD UNFOLD TUESDAY
BUT THE POTENTIAL TO PUSH HIGH WIND CRITERIA IS ALSO PLAUSIBLE.

THE ALLBLEND FORECAST APPROACH DOES DEVELOP A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
LIGHT SNOW IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES THURSDAY EVENING, CLOSELY TIED TO
THE MID LEVEL COLD POOL AND THE UPPER JET DEFORMATION/700MB TROUGH.
THE 850 TO SFC LAYER LOOKS FAIRLY DRY, BUT WITH THE COLD LAYER ALOFT
WE CERTAINLY COULDN`T RULE OUT A PERIOD OF FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW
WITH NO ACCUMULATION. FOR THE BULK OF THE WEEK THE UPPER PATTERN
MAINTAINS THE POLAR JET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS BEFORE
SLOWLY PHASING WITH THE NORTHERN BRANCH JET SEGMENT AND CREATING A
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE WEEKEND. DURING
THIS PERIOD, NO LARGE TEMPERATURE SWINGS ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS
AROUND NORMAL FOR LATE FEBRUARY INTO EARLY MARCH IN THE LOW TO MID
50S. THE MODELS DO INDICATE SOME SLIGHT CHANCES FOR A LIGHT
PRECIPITATION EVENT ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY
NIGHT OR SATURDAY BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT LARGE ENOUGH TO INTRODUCE
SUCH AN EVENT AT THIS POINT ESPECIALLY SINCE GFSMOS ONLY INDICATES
ABOUT A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OR LESS OF OCCURRENCE.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1108 PM CST SAT FEB 25 2012

LATEST NAM, RUC AND HRRR WERE ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A COLD
FRONT CROSSING SOUTHWEST KANSAS BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z SUNDAY.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS DO INDICATED 4-5MB 3HR PRESSURE RISES BEHIND
THIS FRONT WITH THE BETTER PRESSURE GRADIENT EARLY THIS MORNING
BEING LOCATED AT HAYS. GIVEN THESE PRESSURE TENDENCIES AND THE
NEW RUC AND NAM BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL INCREASE WIND SPEEDS AT
HAYS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS FOR A BRIEF TIME AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE.
AT DDC AND GCK WIND SPEEDS WILL ALSO INCREASE BUT WIND SPEEDS ARE
EXPECTED TO HOVER AROUND 20KTS.

THESE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY
WITH BOUNDARY LAYER WIND SPEEDS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY AND AVERAGE
MIXED LAYER WIND SPEEDS BOTH SUPPORTING KEEPING THESE NORTHWEST
WINDS IN THE 15 TO NEAR 25KT RANGE WITH THE STRONGER WINDS
FORECAST TO OCCUR AT HAYS. MOISTURE LIMITED TO THE MID-UPPER
LEVELS SO VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECT TED THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 258 AM CST SUN FEB 26 2012

LOWER DEWPOINTS WILL RETURN TO MUCH OF WESTERN KANSAS TODAY AS A
NORTHWEST FLOW PERSISTS. THESE LOWER DEWPOINTS WILL RESULT IN
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BOTTOMING OUT AT 15 PERCENT OR LESS FOR
MUCH OF SOUTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THE NAM AND GFS
AVERAGE MIXED LAYER WINDS ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON WILL PRODUCE SURFACE WINDS IN THE 20 TO 25
MPH RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS LIKELY. GIVEN THESE WINDS LATER TODAY
ALONG WITH LOW AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES...CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL EXIST ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 96. WILL
THEREFORE ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING FOR THIS AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 54 29 47 44 / 0 0 30 50
GCK 52 29 46 42 / 0 10 30 70
EHA 51 29 49 41 / 0 10 30 60
LBL 53 31 49 43 / 0 0 30 60
HYS 54 20 46 41 / 0 0 30 60
P28 58 29 52 48 / 0 0 30 50

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CST THIS
EVENING FOR KSZ030-031-043>046.

UPDATE...BURGERT
SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM....RUSSELL
AVIATION...BURGERT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DODGE CITY KS

1134 PM CST SAT FEB 25 2012

...UPDATED AVIATION AND NEAR TERM DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1108 PM CST SAT FEB 25 2012

AS OF 04Z A COLD FRONT EXTENDED ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS WITH
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS BEHIND THIS FRONT INDICATING 30 TO 35 MPH
WINDS REDEVELOPING BEHIND THIS FRONT IN A FEW LOCATIONS. ALSO
NOTICING A 4-5MB 3HR PRESSURE RISE WAS ALSO PRESENT BEHIND THIS
FRONT. LATEST NAM, RUC, AND HRRR WERE ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
MOVING THIS COLD FRONT ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS BETWEEN
MIDNIGHT AND 3 AM WITH THE BETTER SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT DURING
THIS TIME FRAME BEING MAINLY CONFINED TO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. AS
A RESULT WILL BE INCREASING WINDS OVERNIGHT BEHIND THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE WITH THE STRONGER WINDS STAYING NEAR THE INTERSTATE 70
CORRIDOR. AFTER 3 AM THESE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE...HOWEVER
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN BY MID DAY. THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AND AVERAGE MIXED LAYER WINDS FROM THE NAM
AND RUC ARE CURRENTLY SUPPORTING WINDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON CLOSER TO
THE NEW MAV, MOSGUIDE, AND CONSMOS GUIDANCE. AS A RESULT WILL ALSO
BE INCREASING WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE 15 TO 25 MPH
WITH THE STRONGER WIND SPEEDS ONCE AGAIN BEING IN OUR NORTH. THIS
WILL INCREASE THE FIRE DANGER LEVELS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS
AND POSSIBLY AS FAR SOUTH AS GARDEN CITY, JETMORE AND LARNED.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TOMORROW)
ISSUED AT 145 PM CST SAT FEB 25 2012

THE MAIN FORECAST FOCUS WILL BE ON TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CST SAT FEB 25 2012

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 20S ON SUNDAY NIGHT THEN RISE INTO THE
40S ON MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE STORM SYSTEM. THEN FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM 28 TO 35.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1108 PM CST SAT FEB 25 2012

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 33 55 26 47 / 0 0 0 30
GCK 31 53 25 46 / 0 0 10 30
EHA 32 53 27 49 / 0 0 10 30
LBL 32 54 28 49 / 0 0 0 30
HYS 31 53 24 46 / 0 0 0 30
P28 38 58 33 52 / 0 0 0 30

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...BURGERT
SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM....KRUSE
AVIATION...BURGERT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PITTSBURGH PA

1247 AM EST SUN FEB 26 2012

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
FOR MIDNIGHT UPDATE...MADE SEVERAL MINOR CHANGES. HELD ONTO POPS
SLIGHTLY LONGER WITH RADAR STILL SHOWING RETURNS. UPDATED SKY
GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR CLEARING SKIES MOVING FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST. IN ADDITION...DROPPED OVERNIGHT LOWS A FEW DEGREES
WHERE SKIES HAVE ALREADY GONE CLEAR...AS RADIATIONAL COOLING
SHOULD BE ABLE TO TAKE EFFECT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

PER RECENT SURFACE AND RADAR DATA, COUPLED WITH HRRR AND NAM MODEL
OUTPUT, SNOW SHOWERS AND PATCHES OF BLOWING SNOW SHOULD END BY
DAWN SUNDAY.

SO EXPECT NO MORE THAN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH
AND MOUNTAINS BY MIDNIGHT, AND ONLY FLURRIES AND PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES BY 4 AM.

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RECENT SREF MODEL OUTPUT SHOWS CANADIAN LOW PRESSURE PASSING
EASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT, THAT WILL PUSH A
WEAK COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND DAYTIME MONDAY. SYSTEM WILL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE
INFUSION, SO AT THIS JUNCTURE EXPECT ONLY AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS.

HIGH PRESSURE,MOVING EAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS, WILL MAINTAIN
DRY CONDITIONS TUESDAY, AS CONSENSUS OF GFS AND NAM MOS SHOW TEMPERATURES
MODERATING TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

SCATTERED SHOWERS BEHIND THE SYSTEM MAY MIX WITH SNOW LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH AS
COLDER AIR MOVES IN.

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A STRATOCUMULUS DECK AT 3-4KFT WILL PULL NORTHEAST THIS MORNING AS
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. CLEAR SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE TERMINALS BY 15Z. ASIDE FROM BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS
INITIALLY AT KDUJ/KFKL, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD. WESTERLY WINDS AT 10KTS WILL SHIFT TO MORE SOUTHERLY THIS
AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY EVENING. RESTRICTIONS WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE AS RAIN
SHOWERS PUSH INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
LINGERING RESTRICTIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WITH SCATTERED
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PITTSBURGH PA

1214 AM EST SUN FEB 26 2012

PER RECENT SURFACE AND RADAR DATA, COUPLED WITH HRRR AND NAM MODEL
OUTPUT, SNOW SHOWERS AND PATCHES OF BLOWING SNOW SHOULD END BY
DAWN SUNDAY.

SO EXPECT NO MORE THAN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH
AND MOUNTAINS BY MIDNIGHT, AND ONLY FLURRIES AND PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES BY 4 AM.

HIGH PRESSURE,MOVING EAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS, WILL MAINTAIN
DRY CONDITIONS TUESDAY, AS CONSENSUS OF GFS AND NAM MOS SHOW TEMPERATURES
MODERATING TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW A CLOSED UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW TRACKING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES/UPPER OHIO VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND OFF THE ATLANTIC
COAST THURSDAY. EXPECT RAIN TO SPREAD EAST INTO THE FORECAST
AREA BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

SCATTERED SHOWERS BEHIND THE SYSTEM MAY MIX WITH SNOW LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH AS
COLDER AIR MOVES IN.

.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS SUGGESTED BY HRRR AND NAM MODEL OUTPUT, AND SUPPORTED BY RECENT
SURFACE AND RADAR DATA, SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN. SO HAVE
MAINTAINED FORECAST OF STRATOCUMULUS CEILINGS AND SNOW SHOWERS, NO
LOWER THAN MVFR, TIL 09Z. STRATOCUMULUS SHOULD GO SCATTERED WITH
VISIBILITIES UNRESTRICTED AFTER THAT. VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT.

WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH, WITH GUSTS NO HIGHER THAN 20
KTS INTO 06Z. WINDS WILL THEN BE 5 TO 10 KTS LATE TONIGHT AND BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY DAYTIME SUNDAY.

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

301 AM CST SUN FEB 26 2012

.DISCUSSION...
IN CONTRAST TO MOST OF THE WINTER... OUR AREA WILL BE IMPACTED BY
QUITE A BIT OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS
SEVERAL POTENT SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. A VARIETY OF
WEATHER HEADLINES ARE THE RESULT OF THE ACTIVE WEATHER... WITH
WINTER WEATHER AND WIND ADVISORIES RESULTING FROM THE SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION TODAY... AND WINTER STORM WATCHES IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE STRONG SYSTEM EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA
DURING THE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. THE LATEST WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY AND RUC UPPER AIR ANALYSES DO A NICE JOB OF DEPICTING
WHERE THE FEATURES OF INTEREST ARE AT THE CURRENT TIME. THE
SHORTWAVE SEEN PUSHING THROUGH THE DAKOTAS IS THE DRIVING FORCE
BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN THE SAME AREA... AND THE
CHANCES FOR SNOW TODAY ACROSS PRIMARILY THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER... STRONG WINDS ALOFT AND MIXING BEHIND THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD WORK TO GENERATE SOME SURFACE GUSTS ABOVE
40 MPH LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON SOUTH OF THE MINNESOTA
RIVER VALLEY. TWO OTHER SHORTWAVES OF INTEREST CAN ALSO BE SEEN IN
THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY... ONE DIVING SOUTH OFF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST AND A SECOND DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH BRITISH
COLUMBIA. THE UPPER LEVEL PV ANOMALIES ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
FEATURES ARE NICELY DEPICTED IN THE RUC ANALYSES... AND THE
EXPECTATION IS FOR THESE TO COALESCE OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS
TONIGHT AND MONDAY. WE WILL THEN WAIT FOR THIS POTENT UPPER TROUGH
TO LIFT NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND WORK INTO THE
PLAINS AND MID-UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...
BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA... ALONG WITH SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION.

IN TERMS OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE... EVERYTHING HAS COME INTO
EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE
DAKOTAS WHICH WILL BE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.
THE SURFACE LOW SHOULD PASS THROUGH THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA... WITH THE BULK OF THE PCPN ALONG AND NORTH OF ITS TRACK
WHERE BETTER ISENTROPIC LIFT... DPVA... AND SOME UPPER DIVERGENCE
ARE FOCUSED. HOWEVER... AS CAN BE SEEN IN CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY...
THERE IS ENOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF
THE SURFACE TROUGH TO GENERATE SOME ECHOES. THUS FAR... MOST OF
THAT ACTIVITY HAS REMAINED ALOFT... BUT WOULD EXPECT MORE OF IT TO
REACH THE GROUND AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST AND THINGS SLOWLY
SATURATE. THE GOING FORECAST LOOKS TO HAVE THINGS HANDLED FAIRLY WELL...
SO ONLY MADE MINIMAL CHANGES... MAINLY TO NUDGE DOWN SNOWFALL
TOTALS SLIGHTLY DUE TO A LONGER PERIOD OF VIRGA OCCURRING. KEPT
THE ADVISORY IN PLACE AND EXTENDED IT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH
THE EXPECTATION THAT GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW COULD KEEP
SOME BLOWING SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES GOING UNTIL EVENING.
THE GREATEST TOTALS STILL LOOK LIKE THEY SHOULD BE ALONG THE FAR
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA... WHERE SOME AMOUNTS OF 3
OR 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. AS MENTIONED EARLIER... THE STRONGEST
WINDS ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY LOOK TO DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE
SURFACE LOW IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH/FRONTAL PASSAGE AS WINDS
SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST. WOULD EXPECT TO SEE SOME GUSTS
ABOVE 40 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON AS MIXING HELPS BRING DOWN THE
30-40KT WINDS PROGGED AROUND 925MB. WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR
THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS.
KEPT SOME CHANCE OF SNOW THOUGH THE NIGHT OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST CWFA AS MOISTURE AND CYCLONIC FLOW LINGER ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW... WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH IS SLOW TO
PROGRESS EAST OF THE AREA.

A STOUT 1035MB RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA
ON MONDAY... BRINGING A PERIOD OF TRANQUIL WEATHER BEFORE
ATTENTION IS FOCUSED ON THE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM EXPECTED TO IMPACT
THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AS EXPECTED OVER THE PAST
FEW DAYS... THIS NEXT SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE A BIT SLOWER
THAN ORIGINALLY PROGGED TO EJECT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST CONUS... AND
DOESN/T LOOK TO BRING PCPN INTO OUR AREA UNTIL PERHAPS LATE MONDAY
NIGHT AND MORE LIKELY ON TUESDAY. THERE REMAINS A FAIR DEGREE OF
SPREAD IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS ON THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW...
BUT MOST OF THE GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE IDEA OFFERED BY
THE ECMWF FOR SEVERAL RUNS. THIS SUGGESTS THE NEGATIVELY TILTED
UPPER WAVE WILL LIFT OUT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY TUESDAY
NIGHT... DEEPENING THE SURFACE LOW OVER NEBRASKA AS IT DOES SO.
THEN THE SYSTEM LOOKS TO BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED AND OCCLUDE
NEAR NORTHWEST IOWA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. IT IS AT THIS POINT...
WHEN THE SYSTEM IS OCCLUDING AND THE UPPER WAVE IS BEGINNING TO
RUN INTO CONFLUENT FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES... THAT IT
SHOULD START TO TRACK EASTWARD AND SLOWLY WEAKEN WITH TIME. THERE
REMAIN SOME DIFFERENCES IN HOW THINGS WILL EVOLVE DURING THIS
STAGE... BUT THE GFS... ECMWF... AND FIM CONSENSUS WOULD SUGGEST A
SURFACE LOW TRACK NEAR OR A BIT SOUTH OF THE IOWA BORDER. A
PROMINENT TROWAL FEATURE IS SUGGESTED BY THE THETA-E SURFACES WITH
THIS SYSTEM... WITH THAT TROWAL WRAPPING INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
AND HELPING TO FOCUS THE HEAVIEST PCPN ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA.

WARM AIR SURGING NORTH AND WRAPPING INTO THE SYSTEM LOOKS TO BRING
AN ELEVATED WARM LAYER INTO THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE STATE... WITH
THE WARM NOSE LOOKING LIKE IT WILL BE LOCATED AROUND 825MB. WITH
MINIMAL PRE-EXISTING COLD AIR IN PLACE... NEAR SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE RELATIVELY WARM WITH THIS SYSTEM...
FURTHER COMPLICATING PCPN-TYPE ISSUES. AT THIS POINT... THE FULL
SOUNDING PROFILE LOOKS TO REMAIN BELOW FREEZING FROM AROUND THE
TWIN CITIES NORTHWARD... WITH THE WARM LAYER MAX TEMPERATURE
INCREASING AS YOU HEAD SOUTH... AND POSSIBLY AS WARM AS +2C NEAR
THE IOWA BORDER. SURFACE TEMPERATURES MAY ALSO GET INTO THE 30-35F
RANGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA. AT THIS POINT... THIS
POINTS TOWARD AN ALL SNOW EVENT NORTH OF THE TWIN CITIES... THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME SLEET AS FAR NORTH AS THE TWIN CITIES METRO...
AND SLEET AND SOME RAIN POSSIBLE AS YOU GET TOWARD THE IOWA
BORDER. THERE COULD ALSO BE A NARROW ZONE OF FREEZING RAIN... BUT
WITH SUCH MARGINALLY FREEZING SURFACE TEMPERATURES... AM NOT TOO
CONCERNED ABOUT THAT POTENTIAL AT THIS POINT.

FORECAST PCPN TOTALS FROM THE GFS... ECMWF... FIM... AND GFS
ENSEMBLES SUGGEST AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES ACROSS A GOOD
PART OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CWFA... WHICH COULD TRANSLATE TO
SNOW AMOUNTS WELL IN EXCESS OF A FOOT. THESE SIGNIFICANT PCPN
AMOUNTS LOOK REASONABLE GIVEN STRONG FORCING AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE
THAT IS SUGGESTED BY ALL OF THE GUIDANCE. MIXING RATIOS IN THE
MID-LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT ZONE WILL BE IN THE 3-4 G/KG RANGE...
WHICH WOULD SUGGEST AT LEAST 6-8 INCH SNOW AMOUNTS PER 12 HOURS...
AND MUCH OF THE AREA WILL SEE SNOWFALL FOR 18-24 HOURS.
FRONTOGENESIS LOOKS TO BE MAXIMIZED IN THE 800-700MB LAYER... WITH
A FAIRLY DEEP LAYER OF EPV PROGGED JUST ABOVE THAT... OWING TO
SOME UPRIGHT INSTABILITY OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA... AND
SYMMETRIC INSTABILITY FARTHER NORTH. THERE ALSO APPEARS TO BE A
GOOD WINDOW OF 6+ HOURS WHEN THE FRONTOGENETICAL CIRCULATION IS
CO-LOCATED WITH THE UPPER JET INDUCED CIRCULATION AS WE FIND
OURSELVES IN A NICE COUPLED JET REGION FOR A TIME. GIVEN THIS
POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL... AS WELL AS THE POSSIBILITY
OF SLEET AND GUSTY WINDS... A WINTER STORM WATCH WILL BE ISSUED
FOR ALL OF THE MINNESOTA PORTION OF THE CWFA. THE WATCH MAY VERY
WELL BE EXTENDED FARTHER EAST LATER TODAY IF CONDITIONS STILL LOOK
FAVORABLE AS THINGS MOVE INTO THAT AREA. A QUICK LOOK AT THE CIPS
ANALOGS SHOW A NICE MATCH IN THE MEAN SNOWFALL SWATH FROM THE TOP
ANALOGS IN TERMS OF POSITION AS WELL AS MAGNITUDE TO SOME
DEGREE... WITH HIGH PROBABILITIES OF GREATER THAN 8 INCHES... AS
WELL AS SOME PROBABILITIES FOR 12+ AND 18+ AMOUNTS OVER PORTIONS
OF THE NORTH HALF OF THE CWFA.

WITH THIS SYSTEM STILL A FEW DAYS AWAY... THERE IS OBVIOUSLY A
GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY... EVEN WITH WHAT WOULD SEEM TO BE FAIRLY
GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS AT THIS POINT. THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS WHAT IS
HELPING TO DRIVE THE DECISION TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH... BUT
UNTIL THE UPPER WAVES DROP INTO THE WESTERN US BEGIN TO WORK
EASTWARD... WE COULD STILL SEE THE DETAILS OF THE FORECAST CHANGE
QUITE A BIT. SHOULD THE SYSTEM COME MUCH FARTHER NORTH IT WOULD
MEAN MUCH MORE IN THE WAY OF SLEET AND RAIN FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE AREA... AND ANY SOUTHWARD SHIFT IN THE TRACK WOULD BRING
THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOWFALL TO THE TWIN CITIES AREA AND POINTS
SOUTH. BUT... AT THIS POINT IN TIME THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
WIDESPREAD SNOW AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 8 INCHES WITH TOTALS WELL IN
EXCESS OF A FOOT CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. NEEDLESS TO SAY... THIS
SYSTEM WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY OVER THE COMING TWO DAYS.
THE BULK OF THE ACTION LOOKS TO OCCUR FROM LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE IN THE WAKE OF THE
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY SYSTEM... BRINGING DRY WEATHER FOR MOST OF
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. UNLIKE WITH MOST SIGNIFICANT WINTER
STORMS... WE SHOULDN/T SEE A HUGE DROP IN TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE
TUESDAY- WEDNESDAY STORM... ALTHOUGH LOWS WILL DEFINITELY HAVE AN
OPPORTUNITY TO BE COLDER GIVEN THE CHANCE FOR BETTER RADIATIONAL
COOLING. A CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW STILL LOOKS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY...
PERHAPS LINGERING INTO SATURDAY... AS A SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT
SURFACE LOW MOVE EAST ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER. THE IS ALSO A
SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE THAT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEAST FROM THE
SOUTHWEST CONUS DURING THE SAME TIME PERIOD... BUT AT THIS POINT
IN TIME MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ITS MAIN IMPACTS WILL OCCUR
SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA. HOWEVER... SHOULD THE NORTHERN WAVE ARRIVE
MORE SLOWLY AND/OR DIG FARTHER SOUTH... THEN WE COULD SEE A MORE
INTERESTING SCENARIO UNFOLD FOR OUR AREA DURING THAT TIME FRAME.
FOR NOW... SIMPLY MAINTAINED POPS ON FRIDAY AND LINGERED THEM INTO
SATURDAY OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES LOOK
LIKE THEY SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TO ROUND OUT THE
WEEK.

.AVIATION... /06Z TAF ISSUANCE/
/ISSUED 1134 PM CST SAT FEB 25 2012/
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES TODAY AND
TONIGHT. SNOW CHANCES WITH MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE
HIGHEST FOR KAXN AND KSTC AND FEW ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE. SATURATION
MAY TAKE A LITTLE LONGER FROM KRWF THROUGH KMSP TO KEAU WITH SNOW
CHANCES HIGHEST BETWEEN 12Z-18Z. CEILINGS WILL BE TRENDING DOWN AS
WELL WITH MVFR FORECAST FROM KMSP ON EAST FROM LATE MORNING ONWARD.
A BRISK SOUTHEAST WIND WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT DUE TO A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE LOW. THE WIND WILL GRADUALLY COME
AROUND TO A WEST NORTHWEST DIRECTION AT KRWF AND KAXN EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND AT THE OTHER TAF SITES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

KMSP...A TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR CEILING/VISIBILITY IN SNOW WAS
PUSHED BACK A BIT WITH SATURATION TAKING A BIT LONGER THIS
MORNING. CHANCES FOR MVFR CEILINGS FROM LATE MORNING ONWARD REMAIN
HIGH. SOUTHEAST WINDS 13-18 KNOTS...WITH GUSTS INTO THE MID 20S
OVERNIGHT WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN TO
THE WEST NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT.

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR ANOKA-BENTON-BLUE EARTH-BROWN-CARVER-CHIPPEWA-
CHISAGO-DAKOTA-DOUGLAS-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-GOODHUE-HENNEPIN-
ISANTI-KANABEC-KANDIYOHI-LAC QUI PARLE-LE SUEUR-MARTIN-
MCLEOD-MEEKER-MILLE LACS-MORRISON-NICOLLET-POPE-RAMSEY-
REDWOOD-RENVILLE-RICE-SCOTT-SHERBURNE-SIBLEY-STEARNS-STEELE-
STEVENS-SWIFT-TODD-WASECA-WASHINGTON-WATONWAN-WRIGHT-YELLOW
MEDICINE.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR BENTON-
DOUGLAS-KANABEC-MILLE LACS-MORRISON-POPE-STEARNS-STEVENS-
SWIFT-TODD.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
FOR BLUE EARTH-BROWN-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-MARTIN-REDWOOD-
STEELE-WASECA-WATONWAN-YELLOW MEDICINE.

WI...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GLASGOW MT

903 PM MST SAT FEB 25 2012

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS BEEN TAKING MORE OF A TURN TO THE S AS
EARLIER MENTIONED...THE SURFACE LOW CENTER NW SD. UPPER LOW JUST
NW OF GGW. MSAS SURFACE PRESSURE LOOP SHOWING INVERTED TROUGH
EXTENDING NW FROM THE LOW ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES. THIS BEHAVING
AS A COLD OCCLUSION WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW LINING UP WITH THIS
TROUGH...OVER VALLEY COUNTY. THIS SEEN WELL ON 88D RADAR LOOPS AS
WELL AS BAND OF COLDER-TOPPED CLOUDS ON IR SATELLITE. THIS IS
SLOWING DOWN...BUT MODELS WEAKEN IT OVERNIGHT. THE HRRR SHOWS THIS
HEAVIER SNOW AREA MOVING SE AND THRU OUR SE LATE TONIGHT...WHICH
LOOKS GOOD LOOKING AT T88D RADAR LOOP. THEREFORE THE EXPANDED
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY APPEARS ON TRACK.

THIS IS MORE OF A PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM THAN EARLIER THOUGHT...SO
AMOUNTS WILL PROBABLY FALL A BIT SHORT OF FORECAST...BUT LIGHTER
SNOW IS OVER MUCH OF S AB/S SK...AND MODELS INDICATE LINGERING
LIGHTER SNOW ALSO IN OUR AREA INTO MORNING.

STRONGER W-NW WINDS ON W SIDE OF THE TROUGH...GUSTING FROM 35 TO
AS HIGH AS 48 MPH IN OUR SW AND NC MT. THIS WILL TEND TO EXPAND
ACROSS MUCH OF THE ARA OVERNIGHT...SO MAIN UPDATED IS TO ADJUST
WINDS AND EXPAND THE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. SIMONSEN

PREVIOUS SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY...THE CURRENT SITUATION RIGHT NOW IS THAT AN UPPER LEVEL
CLIPPER SYSTEM IS ENTERING WESTERN MONTANA AND SOUTHERN ALBERTA
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A SURFACE LOW IS SITTING OVER HAVRE RIGHT NOW
WITH THE 700 MB LOW OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN. THE
LATEST 12Z MODEL RUNS HAVE ALL MOVED THE PRECIP FARTHER SOUTH
ACROSS OUR CWA...THEN WHAT THEY SHOWED YESTERDAY. SURFACE LOW WILL
TRACK FROM NEAR HAVRE THIS EVENING TO JUST SOUTH OF BAKER MONTANA
LATE TONIGHT BEFORE HEADING INTO NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY MORNING. THE
700 MB LOW WILL REMAIN JUST TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE SURFACE
LOW AND FOLLOW THE SAME NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. MODELS ARE ALL IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS.

SO DECIDED TO EXPAND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO INCLUDE ALL
OF OUR EASTERN ZONES. THIS INCLUDES ALL OF GARFIELD...MCCONE...
PRAIRIE...DAWSON AND WIBAUX COUNTIES. THE GOOD NEWS ABOUT THIS
SYSTEM SHIFTING SOUTHWARD IS THE FACT THAT THE HIGHER WIND SPEEDS
HAVE ALSO SHIFTED FARTHER SOUTH. MOST OF THE DRIFTING AND BLOWING
SNOW WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES AND ALSO ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA ALONG THE I-94 CORRIDOR. THE HIGHER WIND
SPEEDS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO START AFTER MIDNIGHT WHEN THE COLD
FRONT PASSES THOUGH EASTERN MONTANA. THE WINDS ARE STILL EXPECTED
TO LAST INTO LATE SUNDAY MORNING. SO IF YOU ARE TRAVELING DOWN TO
MILES CITY OR AREAS FARTHER SOUTH BE PREPARED FOR BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW ALONG WITH NEW SNOWFALL.

SNOWFALL TOTALS ACROSS THE SOUTH WILL BE IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE
AND NORTH OF THE MISSOURI THE TOTALS WILL STILL REMAIN BETWEEN 3
TO 6 INCHES...OVER A 24 HOUR PERIOD. LOWS TEMPERATURES WILL DROP
INTO THE LOWER TEENS TONIGHT AND WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
LOWER 20S ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON WHEN TO END THE SNOWFALL. IT WILL BE
SOMETIME LATE SUNDAY EVENING OR EARLY SUNDAY EVENING AS THE
CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES INTO OFF INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. RSMITH

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
FOR THE PERIOD SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. WEAK RIDGING ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE EXITING STORM SYSTEM WILL MAKE FOR DRY
CONDITIONS...BUT TEMPS WILL REMAIN COLDER THANKS TO LINGERING
ARCTIC AIR INTO MONDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL DRIFT THROUGH
THE GREAT PLAINS...POSSIBLY IMPACTING AREAS AS FAR NORTH AS WIBAUX
PRAIRIE AND DAWSON COUNTIES WITH WRAPAROUND PRECIP. THE LATEST
TRENDS HAVE BEEN FURTHER SOUTH WITH THIS SYSTEM...MAKING FOR
LESSER IMPACTS FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA THUS TRENDED DOWN POPS
SLIGHTLY DURING THIS TIME.

WEAK RIDGING AGAIN RETURNS MAKING FOR MODERATING TEMPS AND
LARGELY DRY CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY THE FORECAST MODELS SOMEWHAT AGREE WITH A WEAK
SHORTWAVE PASSAGE THAT COULD BRING ANOTHER COLD FRONT AND A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS TO NORTHEAST MONTANA. GIVEN REASONABLE CONSISTENCY
THIS FAR OUT TRENDED UP POPS CLOSER TO THE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS OF
SLIGHT CHANCE.

FOR THURSDAY AND BEYOND A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BUILDS BACK
IN...HOWEVER TEMPS WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMALS THANKS TO
LINGERING MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR. GILCHRIST

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...OVERALL COLDER AND MORE WINTER
LIKE PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A BROAD TROF ACROSS THE
WESTERN STATES AND JET PUSHED TO THE SOUTH. MAIN FEATURE OF NOTE
IS CLOSED LOW LIFTING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. EXPECT A SHARP NORTHERN EDGE TO
THE ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION WITH RIDGING ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA
AND DRY AIR PUSHING SOUTH. SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG THE
MODELS ON WHERE THIS BOUNDARY WILL OCCUR...WITH GFS BRINGING IT
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND EC JUST BRUSHING THE SOUTHEAST ZONES.
GEM IS MUCH FURTHER NORTH BUT ALSO SLOWER THEN THE OTHER MODELS.
TRENDED POPS A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE SOUTH THAN IN PREVIOUS
FORECAST DUE TO AGREEMENT OF GFS...GFS ENSEMBLES AND EC.

ANOTHER TROF MOVES ACROSS THE STATE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY.
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROF IS NOT AS CERTAIN WITH
SOME SPLITTING OF THE TROF INDICATED IN THE MODELS. NORTHWEST FLOW
OVER THE REGION FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR
NORMAL AND WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION. EBERT

.AVIATION...
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY ACROSS THE
AREA AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. FLIGHT CONDITIONS
WILL SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR/VFR AFTER 15Z. PROTON

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST SUNDAY FOR CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...PETROLEUM...
GARFIELD...NORTHERN PHILLIPS...SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS...NORTHERN
VALLEY.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST SUNDAY FOR DANIELS...
SHERIDAN...WESTERN ROOSEVELT...MCCONE...RICHLAND...DAWSON...
PRAIRIE...WIBAUX...EASTERN ROOSEVELT.

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS NORTH PLATTE NE

1200 AM CST SUN FEB 26 2012

.UPDATE...
IT LOOKS LIKE STRONG WINDS SHOULD SPREAD THROUGH EASTERN
CHERRY...HOOKER AND MCPHERSON COUNTIES OVERNIGHT ACCORDING TO THE
RUC WHICH HAS BEEN VERIFYING WELL. WINDS AT THE LOWEST GATES AT
MERRIMAN PROFILER AND KLNX VWP ARE 40KTS AND 50KT JUST ABOVE THE
LOWEST GATE. SO THE WIND ADZY HAS BEEN EXPANDED EAST ANOTHER ROW
OF COUNTIES.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1131 PM CST SAT FEB 25 2012/

UPDATE...

AVIATION...
VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH 21Z SUNDAY. WINDS 27030G50KT ACROSS WRN
NEBRASKA TONIGHT SHOULD SUBSIDE BY 08Z BUT THEN INCREASE TO
30025G40KT SUNDAY MORNING AND SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF THE FCST AREA.

AFTER 21Z SUNDAY...MVFR CIGS DEVELOP ACROSS NRN NEB WITH COLD AIR
SPILLING SOUTH. WINDS SUBSIDE BY 01Z MONDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1118 PM CST SAT FEB 25 2012/

UPDATE...
MAJOR LEAGUE HIGH WIND EVENT CONTINUES TO SPREAD ACROSS WRN
NEBRASKA THIS EVENING. MEDICINE BOW PROFILER PEAKED AT 70KT/LOWEST
GATE AT 03Z AND WINDS ARE INCREASING AT THE MERRIMAN PROFILE. KIEN
METAR JUST GUSTED TO 47KT. THE RUC12 SHOWS 70KT 800MB WINDS
SWEEPING MOST OF THE FCST AREA OVERNIGHT AND WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION HELPING TO MIX DOWN THESE HIGH SPEED WINDS...THE HIGH
WIND WARNING HAS BEEN EXPANDED ACROSS MOST OF WRN NEB UNTIL 4 AM
CST.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1009 PM CST SAT FEB 25 2012/

UPDATE...
WINDS ARE INCREASING TO ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS SHERIDAN COUNTY AND
THE RUC SUGGESTS STRONG WINDS WILL PUSH INTO WESTERN
CHERRY...GRANT AND ARTHUR COUNTIES. SO MORE COUNTIES HAVE BEEN
ADDED TO THE ADVISORY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 852 PM CST SAT FEB 25 2012/

UPDATE...
ADDED A COUPLE MORE COUNTIES TO THE WIND ADVISORY. WE ARE GETTING
SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS SWRN NEBRASKA WHICH SHOULD HELP MIX
DOWN THE STRONG WINDS AND THEY ARE PLENTY STRONG. DALTON
NEB...NEAR SIDNEY...GUSTED TO 65 MPH 835 PM CST.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 820 PM CST SAT FEB 25 2012/

UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE FOR THE WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ACROSS
SWRN NEBRASKA THIS EVENING. THE ADVISORY RUNS UNTIL 4 AM CST.
STRONG WINDS MAY SPREAD FARTHER EAST BUT WILL WAIT AND SEE AS
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING COULD PUT THE BRAKES ON THE WINDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 552 PM CST SAT FEB 25 2012/

UPDATE...

AVIATION...
STRONG GUSTY SOUTH SFC WINDS...AT TIMES GUSTING TO NEAR 30
KTS...WILL CONTINUE EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED...WITH SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA WITH HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA. COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE AREA BY BY THE MID EVENING FROM 0100 ACROSS THE
EASTERN PANHANDLE TO 0600 TOWARDS ONEILL. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY BACK TO
140 TO 170 BEFORE TURNING RAPIDLY WNW AT 20 TO 25 KTS GUSTING TO 33
KTS. WINDS WILL REMAIN WNW INCREASING AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON
SUNDAY WITH INCREASING MOD LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 PM CST SAT FEB 25 2012/

SYNOPSIS...UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS MORNING HAS A PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS WITH 200 METER HT FALLS
NOTED ACROSS IDAHO AND EASTERN WASHINGTON STATE. DOWN STREAM HT
RISES UP TO 160 METERS WERE NOTED AT OMAHA WITH A LOW AMPLITUDE
RIDGE PRESENT OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND THE FRONT RANGES OF
COLORADO...WYOMING AND ERN MT. A DEEPENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO
THE WEST AND EXITING HIGH PRESSURE...HAVE LED TO WINDY CONDS ACROSS
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED WINDS
OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH SOME PERIODIC GUSTS TO 40 MPH HAVE BEEN COMMON.
FORTUNATELY...WITH LOW LEVEL WAA WORKING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...WINDS HAVE REMAINED BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA TDY.
TEMPERATURES AS OF 2 PM CST VARIED WIDELY ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM 36 AT ONEILL...TO 51 AT OGALLALA AND
IMPERIAL.

DISCUSSION...

NEAR TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CHALLENGES IN THE
NEAR TERM ARE WINDS...THEN PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND PRECIPITATION
TYPES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE CENTER EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS.

FOR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL INTENSIFY
AND TRACK ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF STATES OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS.
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
NORTH OF THE AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FROPA IN THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING. FURTHER
SOUTH...VERY DRY AIR IS IN PLACE AND SHOULD INHIBIT PCPN
DEVELOPMENT. WINDS WILL BE A CONCERN FOR SUNDAY. MAV GUIDANCE IS
INDICATIVE OF ADVISORY WINDS ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA FOR
SUNDAY...WITH SUSTAINED WESTERLY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH...WHILE THE
MET GUIDANCE IS WINDY...WITH WINDS MORE ON THE ORDER OF 15 TO 30
MPH. DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE TWO GUIDANCE MEMBERS SEEM TO LIE WITH
THE DEGREE OF MIXING AS WELL AS DIFFERENCES IN FCST HIGHS SUNDAY
WITH THE MET GUIDANCE RUNNING 3 TO 7 DEGREES COOLER ON HIGHS. NO
SURPRISE IT HAS THE SLOWER WINDS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS ARE HINTING AT ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS TOMORROW AFTERNOON
IN THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES WITH GUSTS TO OVER 45 MPH AROUND 18Z
SUNDAY. IN LIGHT OF THE BUFKIT DATA...WOULD LIKE TO SEE BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE MAV AND MET GUIDANCE BEFORE ISSUING ANY WIND
HEADLINES FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

AFTER SUNDAY...FORECAST FOCUS SHIFTS TO A DEVELOPING STORM
SYSTEM...WHICH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO SPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWS TO THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. BEGINNING
MONDAY...THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONUS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...THEN THE SRN GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF THE DAY.
SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR WILL BACK INTO THE AREA MONDAY...ONLY TO LIFT
NORTH MONDAY NIGHT AS STRONG SRLY FLOW AND INTENSE WAA PUSHES NORTH
FROM THE SRN PLAINS. TEMPS WILL BE VERY TRICKY ON MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT...AND CHOSE TO INCORPORATE A NON DIURNAL T FOR TEMPS LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. AFTER TEMPS STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE LWR 30S
MONDAY...TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE 30S AND LWR 40S OVERNIGHT AS
INTENSE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WORKS INTO THE
REGION. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE EARLY EVENING...WHILE HIGHS
TUESDAY WILL BE EARLY WITH FALLING TEMPS EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

NOW FOR PRECIPITATION...A LEAD DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT INTO WESTERN
AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA MONDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL LEAD TO
INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES. STRUGGLED A BIT WITH PRECIPITATION
TYPE MONDAY NIGHT WITH SNOW AND RAIN SNOW MIX EXPECTED
FIRST...FOLLOWED BY RAIN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. WILL NEED TO TAKE A LOOK
AT FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL MONDAY EVENING AS WELL AS THE NAM TRIES
TO HOLD ONTO A SHALLOW...SUBFREEZING LAYER IN THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST. EVEN THE THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE
IN THE SRN ZONES WITH NEGATIVE LI/S AND SB CAPES AROUND 200J/KG.

PTYES...AS WELL AS SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW
LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WILL HINGE HEAVILY ON MODEL CHOICE. THE
NAM AND CANADIAN CONTINUE TO BE NORTH WITH THEIR TRACKS...THE ECMWF
IS SOUTH AND THE GFS IS A COMPROMISE. IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES...OUR
FAR NORTHERN ZONES COULD BE BURIED BY THIS SYSTEM...IF THE NAM
VERIFIES...THE HEAVIEST SNOWS WOULD BE PUSHED WELL NORTH OF THE CWA.
WITH A GFS/ECMWF COMPROMISE...OUR NORTHWESTERN AND FAR NORTHERN ZONES HAVE
THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWS OF 6+ INCHES. IN ADDITION
TO SNOW...VERY STRONG WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS
SYSTEM...LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR BLIZZARD OR NEAR BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS EVEN WITH ONLY A FEW INCHES OF SNOW. WILL CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT THE THREAT IN THE HWO AND...GIVEN THE ONGOING
UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST TRACK...WILL NOT BE ISSUING ANY
HEADLINES AT THIS POINT.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...FOLLOWED CLOSER TO THE
ECMWF FOR THE TUESDAY NIGHT PERIOD. ALL MODELS BRING STRONG NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE AREA ON THE BACKSIDE OF A POWERFUL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE ECMWF IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH WRAP AROUND
SNOW...AND GIVES SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. QUITE CONCERNED THAT EVEN JUST AN INCH OR TWO...LIKE THE
GFS INDICATES...COULD GIVE SOME REAL VISIBILITY PROBLEMS DUE TO
BLOWING SNOW. THE ECMWF WOULD BE THE WORST CASE SCENARIO...WITH
SEVERAL INCHES ACCUMULATION PLUS THE STRONG WINDS. THIS SOLUTION
WOULD BE NEAR BLIZZARD...AND WILL BEEF UP THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POTENTIAL. SYSTEM QUICKLY DEPARTS TO THE
EAST WEDNESDAY...BUT SOME BLOWING SNOW AND FLURRIES LIKELY TO LINGER
INTO THE MORNING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

RATHER UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR LATE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. ANOTHER SYSTEM...CURRENTLY PROJECTED TO CROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA A MAYBE A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT.

FIRE WEATHER...GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH
HUMIDITY VALUES OF 18 TO 25 PERCENT SUNDAY TO CREATE HIGH FIRE
DANGER. AT THIS TIME WILL NOT ISSUE ANY FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES DUE
TO RATHER COOL TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S. WILL HOWEVER
INCLUDE A SECTION ON HIGH FIRE DANGER IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK. EVENING AND NIGHT SHIFTS CAN EVALUATE FURTHER AND DETERMINE
IF A RED FLAG WARNING IS NECESSARY FOR SUNDAY.

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 3 AM MST
SUNDAY FOR NEZ004-022-023-035-056>058-094.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST /3 AM MST/ SUNDAY FOR NEZ005-024-
036-059-069>071.

SHORT TERM/EXTENDED...MASEK
AVIATION...CDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS NORTH PLATTE NE

1131 PM CST SAT FEB 25 2012

.UPDATE...

.AVIATION...
VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH 21Z SUNDAY. WINDS 27030G50KT ACROSS WRN
NEBRASKA TONIGHT SHOULD SUBSIDE BY 08Z BUT THEN INCREASE TO
30025G40KT SUNDAY MORNING AND SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF THE FCST AREA.

AFTER 21Z SUNDAY...MVFR CIGS DEVELOP ACROSS NRN NEB WITH COLD AIR
SPILLING SOUTH. WINDS SUBSIDE BY 01Z MONDAY.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1118 PM CST SAT FEB 25 2012/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1009 PM CST SAT FEB 25 2012/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 852 PM CST SAT FEB 25 2012/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 820 PM CST SAT FEB 25 2012/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 552 PM CST SAT FEB 25 2012/

UPDATE...

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 PM CST SAT FEB 25 2012/

DISCUSSION...

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 3 AM MST SUNDAY FOR NEZ004-022-023-035-
056>058-094.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST /3 AM MST/ SUNDAY FOR NEZ059-
069>071.

SHORT TERM/EXTENDED...MASEK
AVIATION...CDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTH PLATTE NE

1118 PM CST SAT FEB 25 2012

.UPDATE...
MAJOR LEAGUE HIGH WIND EVENT CONTINUES TO SPREAD ACROSS WRN
NEBRASKA THIS EVENING. MEDICINE BOW PROFILER PEAKED AT 70KT/LOWEST
GATE AT 03Z AND WINDS ARE INCREASING AT THE MERRIMAN PROFILE. KIEN
METAR JUST GUSTED TO 47KT. THE RUC12 SHOWS 70KT 800MB WINDS
SWEEPING MOST OF THE FCST AREA OVERNIGHT AND WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION HELPING TO MIX DOWN THESE HIGH SPEED WINDS...THE HIGH
WIND WARNING HAS BEEN EXPANDED ACROSS MOST OF WRN NEB UNTIL 4 AM
CST.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1009 PM CST SAT FEB 25 2012/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 852 PM CST SAT FEB 25 2012/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 820 PM CST SAT FEB 25 2012/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 552 PM CST SAT FEB 25 2012/

UPDATE...

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 PM CST SAT FEB 25 2012/

DISCUSSION...

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 3 AM MST SUNDAY FOR NEZ004-022-023-035-
056>058-094.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST /3 AM MST/ SUNDAY FOR NEZ059-
069>071.

SHORT TERM/EXTENDED...MASEK
AVIATION...CDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS NORTH PLATTE NE

1009 PM CST SAT FEB 25 2012

.UPDATE...
WINDS ARE INCREASING TO ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS SHERIDAN COUNTY AND
THE RUC SUGGESTS STRONG WINDS WILL PUSH INTO WESTERN
CHERRY...GRANT AND ARTHUR COUNTIES. SO MORE COUNTIES HAVE BEEN
ADDED TO THE ADVISORY.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 852 PM CST SAT FEB 25 2012/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 820 PM CST SAT FEB 25 2012/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 552 PM CST SAT FEB 25 2012/

UPDATE...

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 PM CST SAT FEB 25 2012/

DISCUSSION...

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST /3 AM MST/ SUNDAY FOR NEZ004-022-
023-035-056>059-069>071-094.

SHORT TERM/EXTENDED...MASEK
AVIATION...CDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND FORKS ND

354 AM CST SUN FEB 26 2012

.SHORT TERM...
ANOTHER USUAL TRYING SNOW EVENT....THESE "HYBRID" STORMS COMING
OFF THE PACIFIC THROUGH BRITISH COLUMBIA ALWAYS GIVES US FITS AND
THIS IS NO EXCEPTION. DECENT FRONTOGENETIC FORCING OUT AHD OF
SYSTEM CREATING SNOW BANDS....BUT DEEP LAYERED SATURATION JUST NOT
ENOUGH TO CAUSE A LOT OF SNOW TO FALL. ISSUE TODAY WILL BE DEF
ZONE SNOW AREA. INTERESTING WATER VAPOR PICTURE WITH ONE SHORT
WAVE NORTHWEST OF BISMARCK AND THIS IS ASSOC WITH BAND OF SNOW
WHICH HAS BEEN BTWN BIS/MOT MOST OF THE NIGHT. BAND OF SNOW HAS
BEEN LOCATED FROM BTWN MOT/BIS SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHEAST ND EARLY
TONIGHT LIFTING NORTHWARD. THIS BAND PRODUCING SOME SPITS OF SNOW
AT TIMES BUT NOTHING HEAVY. THE VORT MAX NORTHWEST OF BISMARCK IS
BEGINNING TO COMBINE WITH SECOND AND MORE POWERFUL VORT MAX SNOW
CLEARELY SEEN IN SOUTH DAKOTA SOUTHWEST OF ABERDEEN. RADAR SHOWING
A SECOND BAND OF SNOW DEVELOPING AND LIFTING NORTHEAST AHD OF IT
INTO SE ND. LATEST RUC LIFTS THIS 500 MB VORT NORTHEAST WITH UPPER
LOW JUST EAST OF FARGO AT 15Z. RUC DEVELOPS BAND OF SNOW MORE
INTENSELY 12Z-15Z JUST NORTH/NORTHWEST OF UPPER LOW FROM THIEF
RIVER FALLS TO GRAND FORKS TO DEVILS LAKE THROUGH 18Z. THIS AXIS
OF HEAVIER PRECIP 12-18Z ALSO SHOWN BY ECMWF. SLOWER SOLN AS SHOWN
BY EARLIER ECMWF RUNS SEEMS TO BE WORKING OUT COMPARED TO FASTER
GFS FROM A DAY AGO.

THAT SAID... DO EXPECT SNOWFALL TO PICK UP IN A BROAD AREA FROM
DVL TO GFK TO BJI SOUTH TO PKD-FAR-VCY 12Z-18Z PERIOD. NOW
SNOWFALL AMTS MAY BE REAL TOUGH TO REACH PREV FCST OF 6
INCHES...THOUGH LOCAL AREAS SO FAR EARLY THIS MORNING HAS SEEN
BRIEFLY HEAVIER SNOW. WILL TONE DOWN SNOWFALL TOTALS FROM EVENT TO
4-5 INCH WITH STILL CHC OF ISOLD 6 MARK IN WARNING AREA AND HOPE
THAT MATERIALIZES.

WILL KEEP WARNING OUT AS THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING SNOW
ISSUES LATER TODAY AS SFC-925 MB WINDS LINK UP AND WINDS BLOW FROM
THE NORTH DOWN THE VALLEY. 925 MB WINDS MAX OUT NR 30KTS WITH
LITTLE LINKAGE ABV 900 MB. BUT IF THESE WINDS OCCUR THEN LOCAL
WARNING CRITERIA OF 4/12 HR STILL REASONABLE.

SYSTEM PULLS EAST TONIGHT BUT WINDS MAY HOLD UP TIL 06Z IN THE
VALLEY AND LIGHT SNOW ENDS IN THE EAST BY 12Z.

BREAK ON MONDAY WITH SOME CLEARING AND LIGHT WINDS.

NEXT SYSTEM POISED TO BE A BIT SLOWER THAN PREV RUNS...WHICH ECMWF
ONCE AGAIN HAS DONE A BIT BETTER JOB WITH TIMING WISE. LATEST INFO
SUGGEST SNOW WILL SPREAD INTO NRN SD TUES MORNING AND THEN INTO
SRN ND TUES AFTN-EVE. WILL ISSUE ANOTHER SPS AS WANT TO GET
THROUGH WITH THIS STORM FIRST BEFORE HEADLINES FOR NEXT ONE.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)... MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN PLACEMENT OF
THE 500MB LOW AT 12Z WED...BEGINNING TIME OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST...APPROX IN S MN ALONG 90 NEAR FAIRMONT. DEFORMATION SNOW
ONGOING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS
DEPICT AMPLE MOISTURE AVAILABLE WITH PWATS AROUND HALF AN INCH
THROUGH WEDNESDAY YIELDING TOTAL PRECIP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE FA RANGING FROM THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH AROUND FARGO IN
THE 00Z GFS TO UP TO TWO INCHES IN THE SISSETON HILLS ON THE 00Z
ECMWF...EITHER WAY LEADING TO HEAVY AND SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
TOTALS. MODELS HAVE COME INTO A BIT BETTER AGREEMENT IN HAVING A
SHARP NRN EDGE TO SNOWFALL SOMEWHERE NEAR HIGHWAY 2 DURING THIS
EVENT.

ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND BRING SNOW
CHANCES TO THE REGION. TEMPS FOR THE PERIOD EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
BE BELOW NORMAL.

.AVIATION...
HIGHLY VARIABLE CONDITIONS TODAY WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE
TIME PERIOD FOREAST. SNOW BANDS WILL GIVE IFR VSBYS AND MVFR CIGS
TODAY BUT OUTSIDE OF BANDS VSBYS/CIGS MAY IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR
CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY EASTERLY THEN TURN NORTHEAST TO
NORTHERLY TODAY INTO TONIGHT AT 20 TO 30 KTS IN THE RED RIVER
VALLEY AND EASTERN ND. A BIT LESS WIND SPEED IN BJI.

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST MONDAY FOR NDZ049-052-053.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 AM CST MONDAY FOR NDZ006>008-
014>016-024-026>030-038-039-054.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST MONDAY FOR MNZ029.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR MNZ005-006-008-
009-013>017-022>024-027-028.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR MNZ030>032-040.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 AM CST MONDAY FOR MNZ001>004-007.

$$
RIDDLE/KAISER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

331 AM EST SUN FEB 26 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO PENNSYLVANIA TODAY AND DRIFT EAST TO
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL GIVE
WAY TO A MILD ZONAL FLOW PATTERN THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT
WEEK. IN THIS PROGRESSIVE PATTERN...A SERIES OF STORM SYSTEMS OF
PACIFIC ORIGIN WILL PASS NORTH OF PENNSYLVANIA WITH THE BEST
CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION COMING ON WEDNESDAY.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL NOON TODAY/...
WANING CHANNELED LAKE MOISTURE...TOPPED BY WEAK WESTERLY
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WITHIN THE 275-285K LAYER...IS CAPTURED VERY
WELL BY THE 06Z RUC AND WILL BE FOLLOWED CLOSELY FOR THE
EXTENT/MOVEMENT OF CLOUD COVER /PRODUCING GENERALLY LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES/ OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND WESTERN MTNS.

THIS AREA OF SHALLOW...BUT RATHER COLD STRATO CU WITH CLOUD TEMPS
OF IN THE -9-14C RANGE WILL SLOWLY ERODE FROM BOTH THE SOUTHWEST
AND EAST DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS...BUT CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE FLURRIES AND SCATTERED NARROW BANDS OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH DAYBREAK. ANY SNOW ACCUMS WILL BE LIMITED TO JUST A TENTH
OF AN INCH OR SO /DUSTING/ ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU.

WINDS ARE SUBSIDING QUICKLY OVER WESTERN PA AS HIGH PRES BUILDS
INTO THE UPPER OH VLY. HOWEVER 15-25KT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS IN THE EAST BEFORE RELAXING AS THE DAY WEARS
ON. MID-DAY TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 20S IN THE NW
TO UPPER 30S IN THE SE.

.SHORT TERM /NOON TODAY THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
AS THE SFC HIGH SHIFTS EWD TO THE MID-ATLC COAST THIS AFTN AND
INTO TNT...WAA WILL STEADILY INC IN THE RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF LOW
PRES MOVG THRU THE GREAT LKS. UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
HIGH TEMPS WILL GENERALLY REACH CLIMO VALUES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN...WHERE YESTERDAYS SNOW COVER SHOULD HOLD
MAXES ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON AVG.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LOW PRESSURE REACHING THE U.P.
OF MI BY THE END OF THE PD. TEMPS SHOULD LEVEL OFF EARLY IN THE
WEST AND MAY RISE A FEW DEGS TOWARD 12Z AS W/SWLY FLOW PICKS UP
AHEAD OF TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE UPPER OH VLY. TEMPS
SHOULD EXHIBIT TYPICAL DIURNAL TREND OVR THE ERN VLYS AS BLYR
DECOUPLES UNDER DEPARTING SFC HIGH.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MILDER TEMPS RETURN FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES
HIGHLY ZONAL...AND A SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SLIDES OFF THE EAST
COAST CREATING A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AIR INTO THE COMMONWEALTH.

VIRTUALLY NO CHC OF PRECIP ANYWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PENN
FOR THE PERIOD 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY. EVEN POPS ACRS THE
NRN MTNS WILL ONLY CLIMB SLIGHTLY TO AROUND 10 PERCENT AT TIMES.

THERE WILL BE A FEW...SEVERAL-HOUR PERIODS OF MID CLOUDS /AND
PERHAPS EVEN SOME HIGH BASED STRATO CU/ SLIDING EAST ACROSS THE
REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE NRN
PLAINS AND ACROSS THE UPPER GLAKES REGION.

THE SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW MONDAY COULD BECOME QUITE GUSTY...AND
OVER 30 MPH AT TIMES AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW DRIFTS BY TO THE
NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO.

TEMPS MONDAY SHOULD BE THE MILDEST READINGS THAT WE/LL SEE IN
AT LEAST A WEEK OR SO. HIGHS WILL VARY FROM THE MID 40S ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MTNS...TO THE LOWER AND MID 50S IN THE CENTRAL AND LOWER
SUSQ VALLEY.

ANOTHER MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM LIKELY IMPACTS THE REGION FOR
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SFC LOW TRACKS WELL TO OUR NW...THRU THE
UPPER MIDWEST/UPPER GLAKES REGION DURING THIS PERIOD A RATHER
STRONG...1035MB SFC HIGH WILL ATTEMPT TO FUNNEL LLVL COLD AIR SOUTH
INTO THE REGION FOR THE TUESDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY PERIOD. THE 00Z EC
MODEL APPEARS TO PAINT THIS LLVL COLD AIR DAMMING MORE SO THAN THE
GFS OR GEFS SOLUTIONS.

EC SHOWS A LONGER DURATION/FEW DAY EVENT WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH SECONDARY SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE DELMARVA
COAST /ALONG IT EASTWARD EXTENDING LLVL QUASI STNRY FRONT/. IN
CONTRAST...THE GEFS AND GFS ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM
AND CARRY A MORE CONSOLIDATED/SINGLE SFC LOW ENE ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES...WHILE LIFTING A SFC-850 MB WARM FRONT GRADUALLY NORTH
ACROSS THE STATE ON WEDNESDAY. GEFS PLUMES AND GFS THERMAL AND WET
BULB PROFILES PAINT MAINLY RAIN FOR THE REGION...WHILE THE EC
SUGGESTS AN EXTENDING PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIP AND EVEN SOME
ACCUMULATING WET SNOW LIKELY ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTH CENTRAL AND
EASTERN MTNS OF THE STATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. PAINTED A FEW
INCHES OF ACCUMULATION IN OUR GRIDS ACROSS THE REGION NORTH OF KUNV
AND KIPT.

MEDIAN RAINFALL/LEQ AMOUNTS ARE BETWEEN 0.75 AND 1.00 INCH.

NEXT WEEK CLOSES OUT MAINLY DRY...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION.

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WANING NWLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE GREAT LAKES IS STILL PRODUCING
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OVR WESTERN AND CENTRAL TAFS.
VSBYS ARE BETTER THAN PREVIOUSLY FCST /3-8SM/ AT JST AND THEREFORE
AMENDED TO REFLECT THIS. IR SATL TRENDS SHOW THE BACK EDGE OF THE
LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BE NEAR JST AROUND 12Z.

EXPECT THE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES AND LOW CLOUDS TO SLOWLY
DIMINISH THROUGH THE MORNING...AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL ALSO LEAD TO SUBSIDING WINDS. VFR
CONDS WILL PREVAIL FM THIS AFTN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE 06Z
TAF PD.

OUTLOOK...
MON...VFR. OCNL MVFR -SHRA PSBL NRN TERMINALS WITH WK CLD FROPA.
TUE...VFR. RESTRICTIONS PSBL LATE TUE NGT.
WED/THU...RESTRICTIONS LKLY.

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...STEINBUGL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

233 AM EST SUN FEB 26 2012

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
WANING CHANNELED LAKE MOISTURE...TOPPED BY WEAK WESTERLY
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WITHIN THE 275-285K LAYER...IS CAPTURED VERY
WELL BY THE 06Z RUC AND WILL BE FOLLOWED CLOSELY FOR THE
EXTENT/MOVEMENT OF CLOUD COVER /PRODUCING GENERALLY LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES/ OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND WESTERN MTNS.

THIS AREA OF SHALLOW...BUT RATHER COLD STRATO CU WITH CLOUD TEMPS
OF IN THE -9-14C RANGE WILL SLOWLY ERODE FROM BOTH THE WEST AND
EAST DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS...BUT CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE FLURRIES AND SCATTERED NARROW BANDS OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH DAYBREAK. ANY SNOW ACCUMS WILL BE LIMITED TO JUST A TENTH
OF AN INCH OR SO ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU.

TEMPS WILL FALL ANOTHER 2-4 DEGREES IN MOST LOCATIONS OVER THE
NEXT 4-5 HOURS AND WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE FROM
THE WEST NORTHWEST WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVR PA WILL PROVIDE SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS FOR MOST OF THE STATE. ANY LINGERING STRATO-CU OVR THE
LAUREL HIGHLANDS EARLY IN THE DAY WILL MIX OUT BY LATE AM. A BIT
OF AFTN CLOUDINESS IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NW MTNS...WHERE WAA
DEVELOPS AHEAD OF LOW PRES OVR THE W GRT LKS. GEFS 925 TEMPS
SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS FROM THE M30S W MTNS...TO THE M40S ACROSS THE
LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MILDER TEMPS RETURN FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES
HIGHLY ZONAL...AND A SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SLIDES OFF THE EAST
COAST CREATING A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AIR INTO THE COMMONWEALTH.

THE SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW MONDAY COULD BECOME QUITE GUSTY...AND
OVER 30 MPH AT TIMES AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW DRIFTS BY TO THE
NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO.

MEDIAN RAINFALL/LEQ AMOUNTS ARE BETWEEN 0.75 AND 1.00 INCH.

NEXT WEEK CLOSES OUT MAINLY DRY...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION.

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WANING NWLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE GREAT LAKES IS STILL PRODUCING
SNOW SHOWERS AND IFR VIS AT JST. MVFR CIGS AND VFR VISBYS ARE
COMMON ELSEWHERE AT KBFD/KAOO/KUNV...WITH VFR PREVAILING IN THE
EAST. EXPECT THE SNOW SHOWERS TO SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE
MORNING AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL ALSO LEAD
TO SUBSIDING WINDS ESPECIALLY AT WESTERN SITES. LOW CLOUDS WILL
GIVE WAY TO M/CLR SKIES BY THIS AFTN WITH WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE 06Z TAF PD.

OUTLOOK...
MON...VFR. OCNL MVFR -SHRA PSBL NRN TERMINALS WITH WK CLD FROPA.
TUE...VFR. RESTRICTIONS PSBL LATE TUE NGT.
WED/THU...RESTRICTIONS LKLY.

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...STEINBUGL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI

325 AM CST SUN FEB 26 2012

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTH DAKOTA WILL MOVE TO CENTRAL MINNESOTA
BY NOON AND REACH SOUTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR THIS EVENING.

THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE LOW CROSSING TO THE NORTH WILL
CAUSE STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING.

THE SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT AHEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT WILL
ALLOW FOR A LITTLE DEEPER MIXING NEAR THE SHORELINE...SO EXPECT
HIGHEST WINDS THERE. ELSEWHERE...IT IS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN AS TO HOW
FAR UP THE AIR WILL MIX. 00Z NAM AND GFS ARE SHOWING WINDS UP TO 60
KNOTS AT 850 MB BUT THE QUESTION IS HOW HIGH THE MIXED LAYER WILL
GET TO. BY THE TIME LAPSE RATES INCREASE TO 5 C/KM FROM 900 MB IS
THIS AFTERNOON AFTER THE CORE OF THE STRONGEST WINDS HAVE PUSHED OFF
TO THE EAST. NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS MIX 35 KNOT GUSTS AROUND NOON
IN THE SOUTHEAST. RUC MIXES OUT HIGHER ALMOST TO 2 THSD FT AND
MIXES GUSTS TO AROUND 40 KNOTS AT MKE. HOWEVER GIVEN SNOW COVER AND
CURRENT INVERSION THIS MAY BE TO AGGRESSIVE. LAV GUST GUIDANCE
KEEPS GUSTS TO 32 KNOTS.

TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO TRICKY AS THE 850 MB WARM AIR ADVECTION COOLS
BY AFTERNOON. THIS AND THE SNOW COVER SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES
COOLER THAN THE MAV MOS GUIDANCE. NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE AT
BEST MID 30S. THERE IS A SURGE OF WARMER AIR PUSHING INTO NORTHEAST
MISSOURI WITH TEMPERATURES ALREADY IN THE MID 40S. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY OF THE LAPSE RATES IN THE LOWEST LAYERS IT MAY BE BEST
TO GO WITH A WIND ADVISORY OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN
LEANING MORE TOWARD THE RUC.

FAIRLY STRONG 700 MB UPWARD MOTION OF 9 UBAR/SEC WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE FAR NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER MID LEVELS
SATURATE ONLY IN THE 12 TO 18 THSD FT LAYER WITH MUCH OF THE LIFT IN
THE DRIER LOW LEVELS. THEREFORE EXPECT MAINLY VIRGA WITH ONLY A FEW
FLURRIES REACHING THE GROUND.

EARLY TONIGHT A STRONG WEST WIND OCCURS AT 850 MB ON THE 06Z
NAM...REACHING 70 KNOTS. THIS WITH STEEPER LAPSE RATES BEHIND
COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT. WILL INCREASE WINDS FROM MOS FOR THIS.

MONDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
COUPLE VORTS WITHIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER AIRMASS QUITE DRY WITH PLENTY OF 700
DOWNWARD MOTION AND LOWER LEVEL COOL ADVECTION. 500 MILLIBAR FLOW
BECOMES INCREASINGLY ANTICYCLONIC. SURFACE/850 GRADIENT SUGGESTS A
NORTHWEST BREEZE WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING BUT
WITH SURFACE/850 RIDGE AXES COMING CLOSER DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WINDS SHOULD EASE.

TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
SURFACE/850 RIDGE AXES WELL TO THE EAST. STRONG S/SE FLOW DEVELOPS
IN THE LOW LEVELS. CYCLOGENESIS RAMPS UP IN RESPONSE TO HIGHLY
DYNAMICAL UPPER SYSTEM APPROACHING IOWA. WARM ADVECTION
INCREASES...WITH SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS ON HOW QUICK
THE 850/925 LAYER WARMS. SURFACE TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE FREEZING
IF NAM SCENARIO PANS OUT WITH THE MORE PRONOUNCED WARM SURGE IN THE
AFTERNOON. SOME SLEET POTENTIAL NOTED ON NAM SOUNDING AT KMSN.

TUESDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
VERY CONSISTENT SIGNALS FOR THE MAIN PRECIP EVENT THIS TIME FRAME
WITH STRONG WAVE IMPINGING ON THE CWA. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP
OCCURRENCE AND LOW CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP TYPE. DIFFERENTIAL
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION ...NOSE OF 250 JET AIMED RIGHT INTO
THE CWA AND CORRIDOR OF MOISTURE WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW ADVECTING
HIGHER THETA-E AIR INTO SRN WI. MAIN CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE
PRECIP TYPE. ECMWF SUGGESTS NORTHERN CWA REMAINS ALL SNOW WHILE
OTHER MODELS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH TIGHT 850 BAROCLINIC ZONE
SHIFTING FURTHER NORTH OUT OF THE CWA. APPEARS THE SOUTHERN CWA
WILL BE ALL RAIN WITH CONSENSUS AMONGST THE MODELS FOR A PURELY
WARM PROFILE THERE...BUT THE NORTH REMAINS VULNERABLE TO THE
WINTRY MIX OR ALL SNOW. PONDERED THUNDER IN PARTS OF THE SOUTH
THOUGH LAPSE RATES/ELEVATED CAPE TOO MARGINAL FOR GRID INCLUSION
AT THIS POINT.

WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
SURFACE/UPPER LOW PROGGD TO SHIFT ACROSS SRN WI. 700 LOW POSITION
FAVORS THE NORTHERN CWA QPF MAX OF AROUND A TENTH OR A SMIDGE
HIGHER. THERMAL PROFILE SUPPORTS A TRANSITION TO SOME LIGHT SNOW IN
THE SOUTHERN AREAS AS WELL.

THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
APPEARS SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL TAKE HOLD AND BRING A QUIET DAY IN
THE WAKE OF THE PRIOR DAYS STORM SYSTEM.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW TO MEDIUM
ANOTHER UNSETTLED PERIOD AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWEST AND AN
INITIAL WAVE RIDES NORTHEAST TOWARDS SE WI. MAIN VORT/UPPER TROUGH
WILL THEN WAFFLE ACROSS WI ON SATURDAY KEEPING PRECIP CHANCES GOING.
GFS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE ON THIS LOW RIDING NORTHEAST ALONG THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE WHILE THE ECMWF IS A SKEWED A BIT MORE SOUTHEAST.

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTH DAKOTA WILL MOVE
TO CENTRAL MINNESOTA BY NOON AND REACH SOUTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR
THIS EVENING.

THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE LOW CROSSING TO THE NORTH WILL
CAUSE STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING.

SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING WITH LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
LIKELY. 55 KNOT WINDS DEVELOPING AROUND 2 THSD FT THIS MORNING. THE
WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST FROM MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON
WITH THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH COMPONENT...THEN THEY WILL DIMINISH
SLIGHTLY BEHIND THE SURFACE TROUGH AT 2 THSD FT AS THEY VEER TO THE
SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER AT THE SURFACE WINDS WILL GUSTY INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES INCREASE. SOME GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS
POSSIBLE.

EARLY TONIGHT A STRONG WEST WIND OCCURS AT 850 MB ON THE 06Z
NAM...REACHING 70 KNOTS. THIS WITH STEEPER LAPSE RATES BEHIND
COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT. WILL INCREASE WINDS FROM MOS FOR THIS AND MAY
ALSO BRING SOME WIND SHEAR POTENTIAL.

MAINLY VFR CIGS TODAY...THEN MVFR AS COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS PUSHES
IN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THE STRONG LOW INTO AT LEAST NORTHERN
PORTIONS TOWARD THE DELLS TO SHEBOYGAN LATE TONIGHT. THE MVFR CIGS
COULD SAG TOWARD THE ILLINOIS BORDER TOWARDS SUNRISE MONDAY.

.MARINE...STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTH DAKOTA WILL MOVE TO CENTRAL
MINNESOTA BY NOON AND REACH SOUTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR THIS EVENING.

THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE LOW CROSSING TO THE NORTH WILL
CAUSE STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING.

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT TODAY FROM 15Z TO 21Z. THIS IS THE TIME
PERIOD WITH THE HIGHEST GUST POTENTIAL WITH A SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
WIND ONSHORE COMPONENT. WINDS AND GUSTS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY AS
WINDS VEER SOUTHWEST BEHIND THE SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT. WINDS
AHEAD OF LOW WILL BUILD LARGE WAVES. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE
NEEDED AFTER THE GALES EXPIRE DUE TO BRISK WEST WINDS.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON
FOR WIZ060-065-066-069>072.

LM...GALE WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
LMZ643>646.

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...COLLAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL

538 AM CST SUN FEB 26 2012

.UPDATE...
THE STRONGEST NOCTURNAL WAA IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE CWFA BASED ON
THE 3 HR PRESSURE FALLS. THIS WAA COMBINED WITH THE PV0.5 ANOMALY
MOVING THROUGH IS CREATING THE STRONG SUSTAINED WINDS NORTH OF
I-80 AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI. RUC TRENDS SHOW THE PV0.5
ANOMALY EXITING THE CWFA BY OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE SO SUSTAINED
WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH.

A SIDE AFFECT OF THE STRONGER WINDS IS THAT TEMPERATURES ARE
RESPONDING QUICKER THAN FCST. THIS TREND WILL NEED TO BE EVALUATED
FURTHER TO SEE IF RAISING MAX TEMPS FOR TODAY IS WARRANTED.
..08..

.AVIATION...
12Z BALLOON FLIGHT SHOWS WINDS OF 40 KTS ARND 1.5KFT AGL. LLWS IS
LIKELY OR HAS A HIGH PROBABILITY OF OCCURRING THROUGH 15Z/26 AT
1.5-2.0KFT AGL. AFT 15Z/26 SUSTAINED WINDS OVR 20KTS WILL BE DVLPG WITH
VFR CONDITIONS. AFT 00Z/27 VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH A
FRONTAL PASSAGE. LLWS APPEARS TO BE MARGINAL AFT 00Z/27 AND WAS
NOT INCLUDED IN THE 12Z TAFS.
..08..

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 AM CST SUN FEB 26 2012/

SYNOPSIS...
06Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS A LOW WEST NORTHWEST OF KPIR AND ANOTHER NEAR
KHSI. A WARM FRONT RAN SOUTH FROM THE KPIR LOW TO THE LOW NEAR KHSI.
A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT RAN FROM THE KHSI LOW SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL
MISSOURI. DEW POINTS WERE GENERALLY IN THE TEENS AND 20S ACROSS THE
MIDWEST AND PLAINS. SATELLITE SHOWS PLENTY OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST.

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
WINDY BUT DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE CWFA FOR THE NEXT
36 HRS.

THE TWO QUESTIONS FOR TODAY IS HOW WARM WILL IT GET AND WHETHER
HEADLINES ARE NEEDED FOR THE WIND.

THUS A LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT SHOULD BE SEEN ACROSS THE CWFA
TODAY WITH LOWER 40S IN THE FAR NORTH TO NEAR 60 IN THE EXTREME
SOUTH.

TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA UNDER BREEZY
CONDITIONS. OTHER THAN SOME PASSING CLOUDS THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL
BE DRY.
.08..

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY...
PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE LONGER RANGE REMAINS THE STRONG SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE 00Z MODEL
RUNS REMAIN REASONABLY CLOSE ON THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THE UPPER
TROF/LOW AND THE SURFACE LOW. THE MAJORITY OF THE SOLUTIONS TRACK
THE SURFACE LOW ALONG THE IA/MN BORDER LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF WAS SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THIS TRACK ON IT/S 00Z
RUN...WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH IT/S PAST FEW RUNS.

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

545 AM CST SUN FEB 26 2012

.DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 301 AM CST SUN FEB 26 2012/
IN CONTRAST TO MOST OF THE WINTER... OUR AREA WILL BE IMPACTED BY
QUITE A BIT OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS
SEVERAL POTENT SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. A VARIETY OF
WEATHER HEADLINES ARE THE RESULT OF THE ACTIVE WEATHER... WITH
WINTER WEATHER AND WIND ADVISORIES RESULTING FROM THE SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION TODAY... AND WINTER STORM WATCHES IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE STRONG SYSTEM EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA
DURING THE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. THE LATEST WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY AND RUC UPPER AIR ANALYSES DO A NICE JOB OF DEPICTING
WHERE THE FEATURES OF INTEREST ARE AT THE CURRENT TIME. THE
SHORTWAVE SEEN PUSHING THROUGH THE DAKOTAS IS THE DRIVING FORCE
BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN THE SAME AREA... AND THE
CHANCES FOR SNOW TODAY ACROSS PRIMARILY THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER... STRONG WINDS ALOFT AND MIXING BEHIND THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD WORK TO GENERATE SOME SURFACE GUSTS ABOVE
40 MPH LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON SOUTH OF THE MINNESOTA
RIVER VALLEY. TWO OTHER SHORTWAVES OF INTEREST CAN ALSO BE SEEN IN
THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY... ONE DIVING SOUTH OFF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST AND A SECOND DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH BRITISH
COLUMBIA. THE UPPER LEVEL PV ANOMALIES ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
FEATURES ARE NICELY DEPICTED IN THE RUC ANALYSES... AND THE
EXPECTATION IS FOR THESE TO COALESCE OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS
TONIGHT AND MONDAY. WE WILL THEN WAIT FOR THIS POTENT UPPER TROUGH
TO LIFT NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND WORK INTO THE
PLAINS AND MID-UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...
BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA... ALONG WITH SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION.

IN TERMS OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE... EVERYTHING HAS COME INTO
EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE
DAKOTAS WHICH WILL BE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.
THE SURFACE LOW SHOULD PASS THROUGH THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA... WITH THE BULK OF THE PCPN ALONG AND NORTH OF ITS TRACK
WHERE BETTER ISENTROPIC LIFT... DPVA... AND SOME UPPER DIVERGENCE
ARE FOCUSED. HOWEVER... AS CAN BE SEEN IN CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY...
THERE IS ENOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF
THE SURFACE TROUGH TO GENERATE SOME ECHOES. THUS FAR... MOST OF
THAT ACTIVITY HAS REMAINED ALOFT... BUT WOULD EXPECT MORE OF IT TO
REACH THE GROUND AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST AND THINGS SLOWLY
SATURATE. THE GOING FORECAST LOOKS TO HAVE THINGS HANDLED FAIRLY
WELL...SO ONLY MADE MINIMAL CHANGES... MAINLY TO NUDGE DOWN SNOWFALL
TOTALS SLIGHTLY DUE TO A LONGER PERIOD OF VIRGA OCCURRING. KEPT THE
ADVISORY IN PLACE AND EXTENDED IT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH THE
EXPECTATION THAT GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW COULD KEEP SOME
BLOWING SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES GOING UNTIL EVENING. THE
GREATEST TOTALS STILL LOOK LIKE THEY SHOULD BE ALONG THE FAR
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA... WHERE SOME AMOUNTS OF 3 OR
4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. AS MENTIONED EARLIER... THE STRONGEST WINDS
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY LOOK TO DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE SURFACE
LOW IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH/FRONTAL PASSAGE AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND WEST. WOULD EXPECT TO SEE SOME GUSTS ABOVE 40 MPH
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS MIXING HELPS BRING DOWN THE 30-40KT WINDS
PROGGED AROUND 925MB. WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTH TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS. KEPT SOME
CHANCE OF SNOW THOUGH THE NIGHT OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
CWFA AS MOISTURE AND CYCLONIC FLOW LINGER ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
SURFACE LOW... WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH IS SLOW TO PROGRESS EAST OF
THE AREA.

.AVIATION... /12Z TAF ISSUANCE/
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER CENTRAL MN TODAY. SNOW WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL MN AHEAD OF THE LOW. A DRY
EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY AIRFLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS CONTINUE TO DELAY THE
ONSET OF THE PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA. CEILING HEIGHTS SO FAR
REMAIN ABOVE 5000 FEET AGL MOST TAF SITES IN OUR AREA THIS MORNING.
EXPECT MARGINAL VFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP OVER THE FORECAST
AREA...ESPECIALLY LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS OF
20 TO 40 KNOTS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO NORTHWEST OVER WESTERN AND
SOUTH CENTRAL MN DURING THE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...SKIES WILL REMAIN
OVERCAST WITH CEILING BETWEEN 2000-3000 FEET AGL.

KMSP...A FEW SNOW FLURRIES OR SPRINKLES DEVELOPING LATER THIS
MORNING. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH
CEILING HEIGHTS LOWERING AROUND 3000 FEET BY MIDNIGHT. SOUTHEAST
WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS SHIFTING TO SOUTHWEST-WEST LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR BENTON-
DOUGLAS-KANABEC-MILLE LACS-MORRISON-POPE-STEARNS-STEVENS-
SWIFT-TODD.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
FOR BLUE EARTH-BROWN-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-MARTIN-REDWOOD-
STEELE-WASECA-WATONWAN-YELLOW MEDICINE.

WI...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND FORKS ND

942 AM CST SUN FEB 26 2012

.DISCUSSION...

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE ONGOING HEADLINES TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
WATER VAPOR SHOWS AN INTENSE SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO SOUTHERN ND. A
DEFORMATION ZONE SNOW BAND IS COVERING MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH
VARYING SNOW INTENSITIES. WHEN IT DOES SNOW VSBYS DROP INTO THE
3/4 TO 1/4SM RANGE WITH WINDS GUSTING TO 30 MPH AT TIMES. THIS IS
MAKING OPEN COUNTRY TRAVEL DIFFICULT TODAY IN MOST AREAS. EXPECT A
GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND TO THE DEFORMATION SNOW BAND TODAY AS THE
UPPER LOW SLOWLY OPENS UP AND MOVES EAST. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW CONTINUING
INTO THIS EVENING AT LEAST. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE CURRENT HEADLINES
ALONE...AND ADDRESS ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. WILL TAKE A LOOK AT
THE CURRENT GRIDS...WITH LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED. SOME AREAS WILL
NOT GET AS MUCH SNOW AS CURRENTLY ADVERTISED...BUT WITH HIGH
VARIABILITY EXPECT MOST COUNTIES IN WARNED AREA TO GET AROUND 4
INCHES AND UP TO 6 POSSIBLE.

.AVIATION...

HIGHLY VARIABLE CONDITIONS TODAY WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE
TIME PERIOD FORECAST. SNOW BANDS WILL GIVE IFR VSBYS AND MVFR CIGS
TODAY BUT OUTSIDE OF BANDS VSBYS/CIGS MAY IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR
CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY EASTERLY THEN TURN NORTHEAST TO
NORTHERLY TODAY INTO TONIGHT AT 20 TO 30 KTS IN THE RED RIVER
VALLEY AND EASTERN ND. A BIT LESS WIND SPEED IN BJI.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 708 AM CST SUN FEB 26 2012/

DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR SHOWS WELL DEFINED UPPER LOW MOVING TOWARD THE
MN/SD/MN BORDER REGION. AREA OF HEAVY SNOW KEEPS RE-DEVELOPING IN
ROBERTS COUNTY SD AND MOVING INTO RICHLAND COUNTY AND EASTERN
SARGENT/RANSOM COUNTIES. REPORT OF 3 INCHES AT LIDGERWOOD SO FAR
AND RADAR SHOWS MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW TO CONTINUE TO ANOTHER 1-3
HOURS. THUS WILL UPDATE THAT AREA TO A WARNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CST SUN FEB 26 2012/

SHORT TERM...
ANOTHER USUAL TRYING SNOW EVENT....THESE "HYBRID" STORMS COMING
OFF THE PACIFIC THROUGH BRITISH COLUMBIA ALWAYS GIVES US FITS AND
THIS IS NO EXCEPTION. DECENT FRONTOGENETIC FORCING OUT AHD OF
SYSTEM CREATING SNOW BANDS....BUT DEEP LAYERED SATURATION JUST NOT
ENOUGH TO CAUSE A LOT OF SNOW TO FALL. ISSUE TODAY WILL BE DEF
ZONE SNOW AREA. INTERESTING WATER VAPOR PICTURE WITH ONE SHORT
WAVE NORTHWEST OF BISMARCK AND THIS IS ASSOC WITH BAND OF SNOW
WHICH HAS BEEN BTWN BIS/MOT MOST OF THE NIGHT. BAND OF SNOW HAS
BEEN LOCATED FROM BTWN MOT/BIS SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHEAST ND EARLY
TONIGHT LIFTING NORTHWARD. THIS BAND PRODUCING SOME SPITS OF SNOW
AT TIMES BUT NOTHING HEAVY. THE VORT MAX NORTHWEST OF BISMARCK IS
BEGINNING TO COMBINE WITH SECOND AND MORE POWERFUL VORT MAX SNOW
CLEARLY SEEN IN SOUTH DAKOTA SOUTHWEST OF ABERDEEN. RADAR SHOWING
A SECOND BAND OF SNOW DEVELOPING AND LIFTING NORTHEAST AHD OF IT
INTO SE ND. LATEST RUC LIFTS THIS 500 MB VORT NORTHEAST WITH UPPER
LOW JUST EAST OF FARGO AT 15Z. RUC DEVELOPS BAND OF SNOW MORE
INTENSELY 12Z-15Z JUST NORTH/NORTHWEST OF UPPER LOW FROM THIEF
RIVER FALLS TO GRAND FORKS TO DEVILS LAKE THROUGH 18Z. THIS AXIS
OF HEAVIER PRECIP 12-18Z ALSO SHOWN BY ECMWF. SLOWER SOLN AS SHOWN
BY EARLIER ECMWF RUNS SEEMS TO BE WORKING OUT COMPARED TO FASTER
GFS FROM A DAY AGO.

SYSTEM PULLS EAST TONIGHT BUT WINDS MAY HOLD UP TIL 06Z IN THE
VALLEY AND LIGHT SNOW ENDS IN THE EAST BY 12Z.

BREAK ON MONDAY WITH SOME CLEARING AND LIGHT WINDS.

LONG TERM (WED-SAT)... MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN PLACEMENT OF
THE 500MB LOW AT 12Z WED...BEGINNING TIME OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST...APPROX IN S MN ALONG 90 NEAR FAIRMONT. DEFORMATION SNOW
ONGOING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS
DEPICT AMPLE MOISTURE AVAILABLE WITH PWATS AROUND HALF AN INCH
THROUGH WEDNESDAY YIELDING TOTAL PRECIP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE FA RANGING FROM THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH AROUND FARGO IN
THE 00Z GFS TO UP TO TWO INCHES IN THE SISSETON HILLS ON THE 00Z
ECMWF...EITHER WAY LEADING TO HEAVY AND SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
TOTALS. MODELS HAVE COME INTO A BIT BETTER AGREEMENT IN HAVING A
SHARP NRN EDGE TO SNOWFALL SOMEWHERE NEAR HIGHWAY 2 DURING THIS
EVENT.

ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND BRING SNOW
CHANCES TO THE REGION. TEMPS FOR THE PERIOD EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
BE BELOW NORMAL.

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 AM CST MONDAY FOR NDZ006>008-
014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

MN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 AM CST MONDAY FOR MNZ001>004-007-
029.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR MNZ005-006-008-
009-013>017-022>024-027-028.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR MNZ030>032-040.

$$
DK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS GRAND FORKS ND

708 AM CST SUN FEB 26 2012

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR SHOWS WELL DEFINED UPPER LOW MOVING TOWARD THE
MN/SD/MN BORDER REGION. AREA OF HEAVY SNOW KEEPS RE-DEVELOPING IN
ROBERTS COUNTY SD AND MOVING INTO RICHLAND COUNTY AND EASTERN
SARGENT/RANSOM COUNTIES. REPORT OF 3 INCHES AT LIDGERWOOD SO FAR
AND RADAR SHOWS MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW TO CONTINUE TO ANOTHER 1-3
HOURS. THUS WILL UPDATE THAT AREA TO A WARNING.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CST SUN FEB 26 2012/

SHORT TERM...
ANOTHER USUAL TRYING SNOW EVENT....THESE "HYBRID" STORMS COMING
OFF THE PACIFIC THROUGH BRITISH COLUMBIA ALWAYS GIVES US FITS AND
THIS IS NO EXCEPTION. DECENT FRONTOGENETIC FORCING OUT AHD OF
SYSTEM CREATING SNOW BANDS....BUT DEEP LAYERED SATURATION JUST NOT
ENOUGH TO CAUSE A LOT OF SNOW TO FALL. ISSUE TODAY WILL BE DEF
ZONE SNOW AREA. INTERESTING WATER VAPOR PICTURE WITH ONE SHORT
WAVE NORTHWEST OF BISMARCK AND THIS IS ASSOC WITH BAND OF SNOW
WHICH HAS BEEN BTWN BIS/MOT MOST OF THE NIGHT. BAND OF SNOW HAS
BEEN LOCATED FROM BTWN MOT/BIS SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHEAST ND EARLY
TONIGHT LIFTING NORTHWARD. THIS BAND PRODUCING SOME SPITS OF SNOW
AT TIMES BUT NOTHING HEAVY. THE VORT MAX NORTHWEST OF BISMARCK IS
BEGINNING TO COMBINE WITH SECOND AND MORE POWERFUL VORT MAX SNOW
CLEARELY SEEN IN SOUTH DAKOTA SOUTHWEST OF ABERDEEN. RADAR SHOWING
A SECOND BAND OF SNOW DEVELOPING AND LIFTING NORTHEAST AHD OF IT
INTO SE ND. LATEST RUC LIFTS THIS 500 MB VORT NORTHEAST WITH UPPER
LOW JUST EAST OF FARGO AT 15Z. RUC DEVELOPS BAND OF SNOW MORE
INTENSELY 12Z-15Z JUST NORTH/NORTHWEST OF UPPER LOW FROM THIEF
RIVER FALLS TO GRAND FORKS TO DEVILS LAKE THROUGH 18Z. THIS AXIS
OF HEAVIER PRECIP 12-18Z ALSO SHOWN BY ECMWF. SLOWER SOLN AS SHOWN
BY EARLIER ECMWF RUNS SEEMS TO BE WORKING OUT COMPARED TO FASTER
GFS FROM A DAY AGO.

SYSTEM PULLS EAST TONIGHT BUT WINDS MAY HOLD UP TIL 06Z IN THE
VALLEY AND LIGHT SNOW ENDS IN THE EAST BY 12Z.

BREAK ON MONDAY WITH SOME CLEARING AND LIGHT WINDS.

ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND BRING SNOW
CHANCES TO THE REGION. TEMPS FOR THE PERIOD EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
BE BELOW NORMAL.

AVIATION...
HIGHLY VARIABLE CONDITIONS TODAY WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE
TIME PERIOD FOREAST. SNOW BANDS WILL GIVE IFR VSBYS AND MVFR CIGS
TODAY BUT OUTSIDE OF BANDS VSBYS/CIGS MAY IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR
CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY EASTERLY THEN TURN NORTHEAST TO
NORTHERLY TODAY INTO TONIGHT AT 20 TO 30 KTS IN THE RED RIVER
VALLEY AND EASTERN ND. A BIT LESS WIND SPEED IN BJI.

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 AM CST MONDAY FOR NDZ006>008-
014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

MN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 AM CST MONDAY FOR MNZ001>004-007-
029.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR MNZ005-006-008-
009-013>017-022>024-027-028.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR MNZ030>032-040.

$$
RIDDLE/JK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

520 AM EST SUN FEB 26 2012

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MILDER TEMPS RETURN FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES
HIGHLY ZONAL...AND A SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SLIDES OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST CREATING A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AIR INTO THE
COMMONWEALTH.

WE`LL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE LITTLE /OR MORE LIKELY/...NO CHC OF
PRECIP ANYWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PENN FOR THE PERIOD 12Z
MONDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY. POPS ACRS THE NRN AND WESTERN MTNS
WILL BE LIMITED TO 10-15 PERCENT AT BEST. A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF
BKN STRATO/LOW-BASED AC CLOUDS WILL PROGRESS SE ACROSS THE
STATE...ALONG AND IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

BUFKIT NAM TIME/HEIGHT CROSS SECTION SUGGEST THAT THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WILL GROW TO BETWEEN 4-6 KFT AGL MONDAY. WINDS AT THE TOP OF THIS
MIXED LAYER WILL BE FROM THE WSW AT 35-45KT...AND SOME GUSTS OF
AT LEAST 30-35 KTS WILL BE MIXED TO THE SFC BEGINNING DURING THE
MIDDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE GUSTY
WIND...UNSEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND
DRY FINE FUELS ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA WILL LEAD TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

TEMPS MONDAY WILL BE THE MILDEST READINGS THAT WE/LL SEE IN AT LEAST
A WEEK OR SO. HIGHS WILL VARY FROM THE MID 40S AND UPPER 40S ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MTNS...TO THE MID AND UPPER 50S THROUGHOUT THE MIDDLE
AND LOWER SUSQUEHANNA RIVER VALLEY.

A SIGNIFICANT STORM WILL HEAD OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
TUESDAY...AND GRIND NORTHEAST TO THE UPPER MIDWEST BY WEDNESDAY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD THICKENING CLOUDS INTO THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT WITH PRECIPITATION BEGINNING SOMETIME DURING
THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS.

VERY INTERESTING DUAL JET STRUCTURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NE US
DURING THE MIDWEEK PERIOD WITH THE TAIL END OF A NRN SPEED MAX
MOVING ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND STATES...WHILE THE NOSE OF SOUTHERN
STREAM JET HEADS EAST OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY BY 18Z WEDNESDAY.

NEAR SFC...AGEOSTROPHIC NORTHERLY FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN TO AN
IMPRESSIVE 40-45 KTS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL HELP TO
DRIVE SOUTH/LOCK IN SHALLOW COLD AIR ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND ERN
PARTS OF THE FCST AREA.

U.S./EURO OPERATIONAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR AT LEAST A
3- 6 HOUR PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIP /AND MAYBE EVEN A FEW TO SVRL
INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE NCENT MTNS...EAST TOWARD THE WYOMING
VALLEY AND POCONOS/. OF THE U.S. ENSEMBLE PACKAGES...THE 03Z SREF
HAS MOST MEMBERS DISPLAYING SNOW OR FZRA FOR THE REGION BETWEEN
KIPT AND KELM...WHILE THE GEFS IS PREDOMINANTLY RAIN.

EVEN AFTER A LIKELY CHANGEOVER TO LIQUID PRECIP IN THE LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS TEMPS ALOFT RISE TO PLUS 3-6C....SFC WET BULB
TEMPS AT...OR JUST BELOW FREEZING COULD CAUSE PERIODS OF FREEZING
RAIN TO CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY - ESP TO
THE NORTH AND EAST OF KIPT.

SNOW/SLEET AMOUNTS AND THE THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN SHOULD BE ENOUGH
TO POST WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NRN
PENN WEDNESDAY.

MEDIAN RAINFALL/LEQ AMOUNTS OFF THE GEFS STILL APPEAR TO BE
CLUSTERED BETWEEN 0.65 AND 0.90 INCH.

AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF COOLER WEATHER WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
IN THE SE...AND NRN/WRN MTN SNOW SHOWERS...MILDER CONDITIONS RETURN
TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK. SATURDAY WILL BRING ANOTHER CHC FOR RAIN OR
MIXED PRECIP IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH
AMPLIFYING OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FRIDAY AND
FRI NIGHT.

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WANING NWLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE GREAT LAKES IS STILL PRODUCING
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OVR WESTERN AND CENTRAL TAFS.
VSBYS ARE BETTER THAN PREVIOUSLY FCST /3-8SM/ AT JST AND THEREFORE
AMENDED TO REFLECT THIS. IR SATL TRENDS SHOW THE BACK EDGE OF THE
LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BE NEAR JST AROUND 12Z.

OUTLOOK...
MON...VFR. OCNL MVFR -SHRA PSBL NRN TERMINALS WITH WK CLD FROPA.
TUE...VFR. RESTRICTIONS PSBL LATE TUE NGT.
WED/THU...RESTRICTIONS LKLY.

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...LAMBERT
AVIATION...STEINBUGL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED TYPO IN AVIATION SECTION

NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL

1139 AM CST SUN FEB 26 2012

.AVIATION...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE PASSING NORTH OF THE TERMINALS.
WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN REST OF TDY. TIGHT MSLP GRADIENT
AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES MIXING DOWN HIGHER WINDS ALOFT
WILL RESULT IN WINDY CONDITIONS WITH WINDS SUSTAINED 15-25 KTS AND
GUSTING 25-35 KTS WHILE VEERING FROM S TO SW THIS AFTN. AS THE
LOW PASSES THIS EVE IT WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH TERMINALS.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 10 KTS EARLY EVE FROM SW BEFORE
VEERING TO W/NW WITH THE PASSAGE OF FRONT WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS
POSSIBLE AT TIMES. COULD SEE SOME LOWER CLOUDS TICKLE KDBQ TERMINAL
LATE TNGT AND MON AM... WITH ADDITIONAL ST/SC WITH MVFR BASES
POSSIBLE MID-LATE AM KCID-KMLI WITH SFC HEATING AND COLD CYCLONIC
FLOW. CANT RULE OUT PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AT KDBQ BUT CONFIDENCE TOO
LOW FOR INCLUSION ATTIM.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 538 AM CST SUN FEB 26 2012/

UPDATE...
THE STRONGEST NOCTURNAL WAA IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE CWFA BASED ON
THE 3 HR PRESSURE FALLS. THIS WAA COMBINED WITH THE PV0.5 ANOMALY
MOVING THROUGH IS CREATING THE STRONG SUSTAINED WINDS NORTH OF
I-80 AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI. RUC TRENDS SHOW THE PV0.5
ANOMALY EXITING THE CWFA BY OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE SO SUSTAINED
WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH.

A SIDE AFFECT OF THE STRONGER WINDS IS THAT TEMPERATURES ARE
RESPONDING QUICKER THAN FCST. THIS TREND WILL NEED TO BE EVALUATED
FURTHER TO SEE IF RAISING MAX TEMPS FOR TODAY IS WARRANTED.
.08..

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 AM CST SUN FEB 26 2012/

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
WINDY BUT DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE CWFA FOR THE NEXT
36 HRS.

THE TWO QUESTIONS FOR TODAY IS HOW WARM WILL IT GET AND WHETHER
HEADLINES ARE NEEDED FOR THE WIND.

THUS A LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT SHOULD BE SEEN ACROSS THE CWFA
TODAY WITH LOWER 40S IN THE FAR NORTH TO NEAR 60 IN THE EXTREME
SOUTH.

TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA UNDER BREEZY
CONDITIONS. OTHER THAN SOME PASSING CLOUDS THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL
BE DRY.
08..

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

346 PM MST SUN FEB 26 2012

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 335 PM MST SUN FEB 26 2012

OBSERVATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 24 SHOW THAT THE WIND
GUSTS HAVE BEEN BELOW CRITERIA FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS...WITH SPEEDS
OF 30 TO 35 MPH COMMON. AM EXPECTING THE WINDS TO CONTINUE TO
DECLINE SO WILL GO AHEAD AND CANCEL THE WIND ADVISORY.

RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE STILL BEING REPORTED ACROSS THE TRI-STATE
AREA SO WILL LET THE RED FLAG WARNING CONTINUE.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MST SUN FEB 26 2012

LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RUC UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOW AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN CONUS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL JET
OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS AND SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
REPORT NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 35 TO 45 MPH AS THE STRONGER WINDS
ABOVE THE SURFACE MIX DOWN.

THE STRONG WINDS THAT PLAGUED THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE TRI-STATE
AREA WILL COME TO AN END AROUND SUNSET AS TEMPERATURES COOL. DURING
THE NIGHT A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH
NEBRASKA...CAUSING THE WINDS TO SWING TO THE NORTH. DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY PLOTS
SHOW SOME LIFT AND SATURATED AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTH...WHICH WILL LEAD INCREASED CLOUD COVER FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.
WITH DRIER AIR IN PLACE AND LIGHT WINDS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER THAN LAST NIGHT...RANGING FROM THE UPPER TEENS IN SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA TO THE LOWER 20S IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.

MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER PACIFIC COAST
EARLY MONDAY MORNING...AND WILL STILL BE OVER GREAT BASIN EARLY
MONDAY EVENING. OVERALL TREND WITH GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TO SLOW DOWN
THIS FEATURE. WHILE THERE IS DECENT H7-H5 MOISTURE IN PLACE
BY 18Z MONDAY...WITH LIMITED LIFT AND DRY LAYER BELOW H7...I
DECIDED AGAINST MENTION OF SPRINKLES MONDAY AFTERNOON. I ADJUSTED
TIMING TO KEEP FORECAST DRY THROUGH 03Z...AND TO LIMIT BEST
CHANCES IN THE FAR EASTERN PART OF THE CWA...TRIMMING POPS IN THE
WEST. WAA OVERNIGHT MONDAY WILL RESULT IN TEMPS INCREASING
AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH LOWS LIKELY LATE MONDAY EVENING. AS A RESULT
PRECIP SHOULD MAINLY FALL AS RAIN...THOUGH A BRIEF RAIN/SNOW MIX
COULDNT BE RULED OUT IN EASTERN COLORADO. WHILE WINDY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED MONDAY...LIMITED MIXING DUE TO CLOUD COVER SHOULD
KEEP CONDITIONS BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MST SUN FEB 26 2012

TUESDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES OUT OF THE
INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST TOWARDS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE BY MIDDAY TUESDAY.
GUIDANCE HAS COME IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A NORTHERN TRACK...SPEEDING
UP THE EASTWARD THE UPPER LOW. THIS RESULTS IN A DRY SLOT QUICKLY
PROGRESSING NORTH OVER THE CWA BY 18Z. I ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY
WITH HIGHEST POPS TUESDAY MORNING...AND THEN DECREASING IN COVERAGE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. I LEFT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN FORECAST WITH
GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS EASTERN HALF OF CWA.
STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL ALSO LEAD TO STRONG WINDS TUESDAY AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION...WHICH COULD RESULT IN WARNING
CRITERIA WINDS (GUSTS 60MPH OR GREATER).

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND MILD TEMPS
CONTINUING. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS STILL EXPECTED TO PASS OVER THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. MEASURABLE PRECIP CANT BE RULED
OUT...SO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE LEFT IN PLACE. THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY. SEASONAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES (MID/UPPER 40S) WILL RETURN FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...WITH NW FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. RIDGE WILL
BEGIN TO DEEPEN SUNDAY ACROSS THE WESTERN US...WITH MILD
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO THE CWA.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1051 AM MST SUN FEB 26 2012

STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT MOVED ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA OVERNIGHT.
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 TO 30KTS WILL OCCUR AT BOTH TERMINALS...WITH
KMCK SEEING HIGHER WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON OF 40 TO 45KTS. GIVEN
YESTERDAYS STRONG WINDS PICKING UP DUST...TODAYS STRONG WINDS MAY
ALSO LOFT DUST INTO THE LOWER LEVELS REDUCING VISIBILITY. WILL NEED
TO MONITOR FOR BLOWING DUST NEAR THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL QUICKLY DROP OFF AFTER 00Z BECOMING LIGHT OVERNIGHT AS PRESSURE
GRADIENT SLACKENS AND DAYTIME MIXING DROPS OFF. AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD TONIGHT...WINDS WILL SWITCH AROUND TO THE
SOUTHEAST BY 14Z TOMORROW MORNING. MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE TOMORROW MORNING AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES INTO
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ252>254.

KS...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST /7 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.

NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST /7 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ079>081.

UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...JTL/DR
LONG TERM....DR
AVIATION...PMM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

236 PM MST SUN FEB 26 2012

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MST SUN FEB 26 2012

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MST SUN FEB 26 2012

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1051 AM MST SUN FEB 26 2012

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ252>254.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ090.

KS...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST /7 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
KSZ001>004-013>016.

NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST /7 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ079>081.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NEZ079>081.

SHORT TERM...JTL/DR
LONG TERM....DR
AVIATION...PMM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TOPEKA KS

308 PM CST SUN FEB 26 2012

.DISCUSSION...

SHORT RANGE FORECAST - TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

CLEAR SKIES AND W-NW DOWNSLOPE WINDS HAVE ALLOWED SURFACE
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S ACROSS MOST OF
NORTHEAST KANSAS. EXPECT THE WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST FOR
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND NOSE INTO THE FORECAST AREA BRINGING CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT WITH CALM WINDS. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF COLD AIR
ADVECTION...BUT RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ALLOW THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO
COOL TO BELOW FREEZING.

EXPECT SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION TO TRICKLE INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE
VERY LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW FOR MONDAY. MIXING NOT QUITE AS DEEP ON
MONDAY AS SUNDAY...SO THAT FACTOR IN COMBINATION WITH THE WEAK COLD
AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPS ON MONDAY MORE SEASONAL. CLOUDS WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS WARM/MOIST AIR
GETS ADVECTED NORTHWARD. CONDENSATION AS A RESULT OF THE ISENTROPIC
LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL LIKELY BEGIN
SHORTLY AFTER NOON...WHICH WILL ALSO AID IN KEEPING TEMPERATURES
FROM RISING MUCH HIGHER THAN THE LOWER 50S.

LEIGHTON

LONG TERM - MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
MODEL AGREEMENT IS NOW FAIRLY GOOD IN THE TRACK OF A POTENT
NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK
WELL NORTH OF THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA WITH A SHARP FAST MOVING DRY
LINE CROSSING THE AREA BETWEEN 21Z TUESDAY AND 03Z WEDNESDAY.

WARM MOIST ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD ALL REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS WITH
SOME LOW END POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL THROUGH NOON ON TUESDAY.

WHILE CLOUD COVER WILL BE ABUNDANT THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY...
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM NICELY WITH AMPLE WARM ADVECTION. THE CLOUD
LAYER WILL ALSO BE RELATIVELY SHALLOW AND LOW BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...AND A FEW BREAKS WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE DRY
LINE BY LATE AFTERNOON. SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID
50S BY LATE TUESDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S. EXPECT THE DRY LINE TO ENTER THE
FORECAST AREA SOMETIME BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z...AND PUSH EAST INTO
MISSOURI ONLY 3 TO 4 HOURS LATER. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE DRY LINE BOUNDARY BY LATE AFTERNOON
AND CROSS THE FORECAST AREA...BUT SUBSTANTIAL UNCERTAINTY EXISTS
REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.

CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT 200-500 J/KG OF SURFACE BASED CAPE
WILL BE PRESENT IN A NARROW BAND NEAR THE BOUNDARY. THOSE ARE
MEAGER VALUES BUT THE MAJORITY OF THIS INSTABILITY WILL BE IN THE
LOWEST 15000 FEET OF THE ATMOSPHERE WITH MAX LIFTED INDEX VALUES
IN THAT LAYER APPROACHING -5. THIS WOULD SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME STRONGER SHALLOW UPDRAFTS. SHEAR THROUGH THE DEPTH OF THE
CONVECTIVE LAYER...ABOUT 0-4 KM...IS 50-60 KTS WHILE 0-1 KM SHEAR
IS 30-40 KTS. THESE VALUES ARE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE
ORGANIZED STORMS WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOW TOPPED SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...THE UNIDIRECTIONAL NATURE OF THE SHEAR MAY
SUGGEST MORE OF A QUASI-LINEAR DEVELOPMENT WITH A BIT MORE
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AT THE SURFACE. IT WILL BE DIFFICULT
TO GET LARGE HAIL WITH SUCH SHALLOW UPDRAFTS PERHAPS HAVING
TROUBLE CLIMBING ABOVE THE -20C LEVEL...BUT AT LEAST SMALL HAIL
WOULD REMAIN POSSIBLE. TORNADO POTENTIAL IS NON-ZERO...BUT HIGHLY
DEPENDENT UPON DEVELOPMENT OF MORE ROBUST UPDRAFTS...AND STRONG
UPDRAFT POTENTIAL IS THE MOST SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS
FORECAST.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
WILL DRY OUT QUICKLY BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AND REMAIN DRY WITH A
SLIGHT COOL DOWN FOR WEDNESDAY AND A QUICK RECOVERY WITH WARM
TEMPS AGAIN ON THURSDAY. A WEAKER STORM SYSTEM WILL THEN CROSS THE
PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT HAVE A
PARTICULARLY STRONG PRECIP SIGNAL BUT APPEARS WORTHY OF AT LEAST A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN WITH PERHAPS A MIX TO LIGHT SNOW
THURSDAY NIGHT. IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A HIGH IMPACT EVENT AT
THIS TIME. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

BARJENBRUCH

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD.
EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS TODAY WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS UP TO 18 KTS. EXPECT A GRADUAL TRANSITION FROM WESTERLY
WINDS TO NORTHERLY OVERNIGHT AND EVENTUALLY N-NE BY MONDAY MORNING.

.FIRE WEATHER...

DEEP MIXING HAS COMMENCED ACROSS ALL OF NORTHEAST KANSAS BRINGING
VERY DRY LOW LEVEL AIR TO THE SURFACE. RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT
THE ATMOSPHERE HAS MIXED TO APPROXIMATELY 800 MB OR 5600 FEET. W-NW
WINDS AT THE SURFACE CONTAIN QUITE A BIT OF A DOWNSLOPE TRAJECTORY
WHICH HAS AIDED IN WARMING AND DRYING THE AIR. AS A RESULT RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES HAVE DROPPED INTO THE MID TEENS THIS AFTERNOON...AND
WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE MIDDLE TEENS THROUGH AT LEAST SUNSET.
WINDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY LIGHT AS OBSERVATIONS
HAVE INDICATED 10 TO 15 MPH W-NW WINDS. DUE TO THE DEEP MIXING SOME
WIND GUSTS OF UP TO 20-25 MPH ARE POSSIBLE...BUT THOSE GUSTS WILL BE
RATHER INFREQUENT. RH VALUES WILL START TO RISE ONCE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO COOL RIGHT AROUND SUNSET.

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR KSZ008>012-
020>024-026-034>040.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

1233 PM CST SUN FEB 26 2012

.UPDATE...

BASED ON RADAR TRENDS...AREA WEBCAMS AND HRRR/WRF TRENDS...HAVE
OPTED TO CANCEL THE WINTER WX ADVY FOR THE REST OF TDA. SNOWFALL
AMTS HAVE BEEN QUITE LIGHT...AND THAT/S EVEN FOR THOSE SITES THAT
HAD REPORTED SNOW...AND SWATH OF SNOWFALL HAS PUSHED WELL N AND E
OF THE MPX CWFA. THERE MAY BE PATCHY SPOTS OF SOME BLOWING SNOW
FOR THOSE ISOLD LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED SNOW ACCUM...BUT VAST
MAJORITY OF AREA RECEIVED TOO LITTLE ACCUM TO CAUSE BLOWING SNOW
ISSUES. EVEN AS THE LOW PRES CENTER OVER SW MN SHIFT E...DRY AIR
ENTRAINED ARND THE SYSTEM WILL MAKE FOR FLURRIES AT BEST RATHER
THAN STRONGER SNOW SHOWERS OR LIGHT SNOW SO AM NOT THINKING THAT
BLOWING SNOW WILL BE AN ISSUE ENOUGH TO WARRANT THE ADVY FOR THE
REST OF THE DAY.

NEXT ISSUE IS FOR WINDS. STRONG LLJ COMBINED WITH A VERY TIGHT
PRES GRADIENT IS MAKING FOR STRONG WINDS THAT ARE SHIFTING
EVENTUALLY TO W AS THE LOW PRES CENTER CROSSES SRN MN TODAY. AM
KEEPING THE WIND ADVY GOING BUT HAVE OPTED TO ADD IN ANOTHER ROW
OF COUNTIES IN SRN MN AS SPEEDS ARE ALREADY IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE
OVER FAR SRN MN AND THESE SPEEDS LOOK TO CREEP A LITTLE FURTHER N
THRU THE AFTN HOURS.

.AVIATION... /18Z TAF ISSUANCE/

LOW PRES CENTER NEAR KMVE TO CONTINUE SHIFTING E ACRS SRN MN INTO
WRN WI THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL
IMPACT ALL TERMINALS...BRINGING THEM DOWN TO MVFR CIGS THAT WILL
REMAIN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GENERAL RANGE FOR CIGS SHOULD
BE 1500-2000FT FOR KAXN-KSTC WHILE THE REMAINING SITES DROP TO
2000-2500FT. CANNOT BE RULED OUT THAT THEY DROP FURTHER BUT
CONFIDENCE NOT THAT GREAT IN THAT IDEA PER MODEL GUIDANCE. KMPX
RADAR DOES SHOW SOME WEAK ECHOES DRIFTING TO THE NE SO A FEW
PERIODS OF FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THAT
SAID...AM NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING TO REDUCE VSBY OUT OF VFR RANGE
DURING THIS TAF PERIOD. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY SCOUR OUT AROUND OR
SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK TMRW AS HIGH PRESSURE ENTERS THE REGION.
STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY THOUGH
THE TRICKY PART WILL BE DIRECTIONS AS THE LOW PRES CIRCULATION
SHIFTS THROUGH MN. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON OBSERVATIONS AND ADJUST TAF
WINDS AS NEEDED.

KMSP...MVFR CIGS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF TDA AND MUCH OF
THE OVERNIGHT. HAVE BROUGHT CIGS DOWN TO OVC020 BUT THERE IS A
SMALL CHC THAT CIGS COULD DROP TO OVC017 OR SLIGHTLY LOWER FOR
SOME TIME OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...ELEVATED LOW LEVEL WINDS AND
SHALLOW DRY LAYER SHOULD PREVENT CIGS FROM ENTERING LOWER-LEVEL
MVFR /AND AM NOT EXPECTING IFR CIGS AT ALL/. COULD SEE A FEW
PASSING FLURRIES OR BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTN THROUGH LATE
EVENING BUT AM NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING THAT WILL REDUCE VSBYS LOWER
THAN 6SM. MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE WINDS. SW WINDS WILL
CONTINUE VEERING TO W THROUGH THIS AFTN AND EVE WITH SPEEDS MAINLY
AROUND 15G25KT. SPEEDS WILL SETTLE DOWN OVERNIGHT THRU TMRW AFTN
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE AREA.

OUTLOOK...
/MON/...VFR.
/TUE-WED/...SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM EXPECTED. LIKELY IFR OR
WORSE CONDITIONS...MAINLY TUE AFTN THRU WED MRNG. IMPROVING CONDS
LATE WED.
/THU/...VFR.

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 545 AM CST SUN FEB 26 2012/
IN CONTRAST TO MOST OF THE WINTER... OUR AREA WILL BE IMPACTED BY
QUITE A BIT OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS
SEVERAL POTENT SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. A VARIETY OF
WEATHER HEADLINES ARE THE RESULT OF THE ACTIVE WEATHER... WITH
WINTER WEATHER AND WIND ADVISORIES RESULTING FROM THE SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION TODAY... AND WINTER STORM WATCHES IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE STRONG SYSTEM EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA
DURING THE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. THE LATEST WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY AND RUC UPPER AIR ANALYSES DO A NICE JOB OF DEPICTING
WHERE THE FEATURES OF INTEREST ARE AT THE CURRENT TIME. THE
SHORTWAVE SEEN PUSHING THROUGH THE DAKOTAS IS THE DRIVING FORCE
BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN THE SAME AREA... AND THE
CHANCES FOR SNOW TODAY ACROSS PRIMARILY THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER... STRONG WINDS ALOFT AND MIXING BEHIND THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD WORK TO GENERATE SOME SURFACE GUSTS ABOVE
40 MPH LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON SOUTH OF THE MINNESOTA
RIVER VALLEY. TWO OTHER SHORTWAVES OF INTEREST CAN ALSO BE SEEN IN
THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY... ONE DIVING SOUTH OFF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST AND A SECOND DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH BRITISH
COLUMBIA. THE UPPER LEVEL PV ANOMALIES ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
FEATURES ARE NICELY DEPICTED IN THE RUC ANALYSES... AND THE
EXPECTATION IS FOR THESE TO COALESCE OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS
TONIGHT AND MONDAY. WE WILL THEN WAIT FOR THIS POTENT UPPER TROUGH
TO LIFT NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND WORK INTO THE
PLAINS AND MID-UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...
BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA... ALONG WITH SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION.

IN TERMS OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE... EVERYTHING HAS COME INTO
EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE
DAKOTAS WHICH WILL BE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.
THE SURFACE LOW SHOULD PASS THROUGH THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA... WITH THE BULK OF THE PCPN ALONG AND NORTH OF ITS TRACK
WHERE BETTER ISENTROPIC LIFT... DPVA... AND SOME UPPER DIVERGENCE
ARE FOCUSED. HOWEVER... AS CAN BE SEEN IN CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY...
THERE IS ENOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF
THE SURFACE TROUGH TO GENERATE SOME ECHOES. THUS FAR... MOST OF
THAT ACTIVITY HAS REMAINED ALOFT... BUT WOULD EXPECT MORE OF IT TO
REACH THE GROUND AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST AND THINGS SLOWLY
SATURATE. THE GOING FORECAST LOOKS TO HAVE THINGS HANDLED FAIRLY
WELL...SO ONLY MADE MINIMAL CHANGES... MAINLY TO NUDGE DOWN SNOWFALL
TOTALS SLIGHTLY DUE TO A LONGER PERIOD OF VIRGA OCCURRING. KEPT THE
ADVISORY IN PLACE AND EXTENDED IT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH THE
EXPECTATION THAT GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW COULD KEEP SOME
BLOWING SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES GOING UNTIL EVENING. THE
GREATEST TOTALS STILL LOOK LIKE THEY SHOULD BE ALONG THE FAR
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA... WHERE SOME AMOUNTS OF 3 OR
4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. AS MENTIONED EARLIER... THE STRONGEST WINDS
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY LOOK TO DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE SURFACE
LOW IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH/FRONTAL PASSAGE AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND WEST. WOULD EXPECT TO SEE SOME GUSTS ABOVE 40 MPH
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS MIXING HELPS BRING DOWN THE 30-40KT WINDS
PROGGED AROUND 925MB. WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTH TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS. KEPT SOME
CHANCE OF SNOW THOUGH THE NIGHT OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
CWFA AS MOISTURE AND CYCLONIC FLOW LINGER ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
SURFACE LOW... WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH IS SLOW TO PROGRESS EAST OF
THE AREA.

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR BLUE EARTH-BROWN-
CHIPPEWA-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-GOODHUE-LAC QUI PARLE-LE SUEUR-
MARTIN-NICOLLET-REDWOOD-RENVILLE-RICE-SIBLEY-STEELE-WASECA-
WATONWAN-YELLOW MEDICINE.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR ANOKA-BENTON-BLUE EARTH-BROWN-CARVER-CHIPPEWA-
CHISAGO-DAKOTA-DOUGLAS-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-GOODHUE-HENNEPIN-
ISANTI-KANABEC-KANDIYOHI-LAC QUI PARLE-LE SUEUR-MARTIN-
MCLEOD-MEEKER-MILLE LACS-MORRISON-NICOLLET-POPE-RAMSEY-
REDWOOD-RENVILLE-RICE-SCOTT-SHERBURNE-SIBLEY-STEARNS-STEELE-
STEVENS-SWIFT-TODD-WASECA-WASHINGTON-WATONWAN-WRIGHT-YELLOW
MEDICINE.

WI...NONE.

JPC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

958 AM CST SUN FEB 26 2012

.UPDATE...

OUTLOOK...
/MON/...VFR.
/TUE-WED/...SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM EXPECTED. LIKELY IFR OR
WORSE CONDITIONS...MAINLY TUE AFTN THRU WED MRNG. IMPROVING CONDS
LATE WED.
/THU/...VFR.

IN TERMS OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE... EVERYTHING HAS COME INTO
EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE
DAKOTAS WHICH WILL BE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.
THE SURFACE LOW SHOULD PASS THROUGH THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA... WITH THE BULK OF THE PCPN ALONG AND NORTH OF ITS TRACK
WHERE BETTER ISENTROPIC LIFT... DPVA... AND SOME UPPER DIVERGENCE
ARE FOCUSED. HOWEVER... AS CAN BE SEEN IN CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY...
THERE IS ENOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF
THE SURFACE TROUGH TO GENERATE SOME ECHOES. THUS FAR... MOST OF
THAT ACTIVITY HAS REMAINED ALOFT... BUT WOULD EXPECT MORE OF IT TO
REACH THE GROUND AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST AND THINGS SLOWLY
SATURATE. THE GOING FORECAST LOOKS TO HAVE THINGS HANDLED FAIRLY
WELL...SO ONLY MADE MINIMAL CHANGES... MAINLY TO NUDGE DOWN SNOWFALL
TOTALS SLIGHTLY DUE TO A LONGER PERIOD OF VIRGA OCCURRING. KEPT THE
ADVISORY IN PLACE AND EXTENDED IT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH THE
EXPECTATION THAT GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW COULD KEEP SOME
BLOWING SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES GOING UNTIL EVENING. THE
GREATEST TOTALS STILL LOOK LIKE THEY SHOULD BE ALONG THE FAR
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA... WHERE SOME AMOUNTS OF 3 OR
4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. AS MENTIONED EARLIER... THE STRONGEST WINDS
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY LOOK TO DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE SURFACE
LOW IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH/FRONTAL PASSAGE AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND WEST. WOULD EXPECT TO SEE SOME GUSTS ABOVE 40 MPH
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS MIXING HELPS BRING DOWN THE 30-40KT WINDS
PROGGED AROUND 925MB. WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTH TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS. KEPT SOME
CHANCE OF SNOW THOUGH THE NIGHT OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
CWFA AS MOISTURE AND CYCLONIC FLOW LINGER ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
SURFACE LOW... WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH IS SLOW TO PROGRESS EAST OF
THE AREA.

WI...NONE.
&&

JPC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HASTINGS NE

1205 PM CST SUN FEB 26 2012

.UPDATE...MORNING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND SUBTLE TROUGHING OVER THE WEST.
A MID LEVEL LOW IS ALSO NOTED MOVING EAST INTO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MID AND UPPER LEVEL JET ENERGY IS POSITIONED
DIRECTLY OVER OUR AREA TODAY...WITH A MID LEVEL JET STREAK OF
AROUND 80KTS EXTENDING FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION TO THE MID AND
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A 700MB JET STREAK OF AROUND 60KTS IS
ALSO NOTED OVER OUR AREA...HOWEVER THIS FEATURE IS QUICKLY PUSHING
EAST INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES
FAIRLY DRY TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...ALTHOUGH INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS NOTED FLOWING
IN FROM THE PACIFIC VIA THE MID LEVEL JET AXIS. AT THE SURFACE AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS NOTED MOVING ACROSS MINNESOTA. A COLD
FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWEST FROM THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NEBRASKA AND AS OF 16Z WAS LOCATED FROM NEAR KBVN...TO NEAR KLBF
AND KSNY.

BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN CWA AS OF MIDDAY AS
LOW LEVEL PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE BAROCLINIC ZONE PERSIST. THAT
BEING SAID...SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE BEEN NO WHERE NEAR ADVISORY
CRITERIA AND WITH THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE RISES AND RESULTANT
PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPECTED TO DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...IT IS BECOMING MORE AND MORE UNLIKELY OUR CWA WILL ACTUALLY
OBSERVE WIND ADVISORY WINDS TODAY. THAT BEING THE CASE...FORECAST
PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM AND OPERATIONAL GFS SUGGEST
AFTERNOON BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WILL CLIMB TO SOMEWHERE BETWEEN
750MB AND 700MB...AND WITH 60KT WINDS STILL WAITING AT 700MB
ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR AREA PER RUC ANALYSIS...WILL PLAY IT SAFE
AND KEEP THE ADVISORY GOING FOR AT LEAST A FEW MORE HOURS JUST TO
MAKE SURE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT DONT MIX DOWN CAUSING A SUDDEN
INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS AS WE HEAD INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
SHOULD ADVISORY WIND SPEEDS NOT BE REALIZED WITHIN THE NEXT 2-3
HOURS HOWEVER...WILL MOST LIKELY CANCEL THE HEADLINE EARLY.

MUCH DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR CONTINUES ADVECTING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST/NORTHWEST TODAY...WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS ALREADY WELL INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA...THUS
RESULTING IN SURFACE RH VALUES WELL BELOW 20% ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST.
RFW CONTINUES TO LOOK GOOD...WITH AFTERNOON BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING
LIKELY PROMOTING DECREASING DEW POINTS FARTHER NORTHEAST ACROSS
OUR CWA...PERHAPS APPROACHING KHSI...BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. AS A
RESULT...NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE RFW.

.AVIATION...18Z KGRI TAF. VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME WEAK CU DEVELOPMENT NEAR AND
NORTH OF THE TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON AS MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
INCREASE...WITH WEAK CU DEVELOPMENT ALREADY EVIDENT ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY NEAR KODX. MAY ALSO BE SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH
PORTIONS OF THE TAF PERIOD. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE
WEST/NORTHWEST...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS PERHAPS NEAR 26KTS POSSIBLE
THROUGH MID OR LATE AFTERNOON...DECREASING SIGNIFICANTLY
THEREAFTER. VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT KGRI
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 419 AM CST SUN FEB 26 2012/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL
REMAIN ACTIVE THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. EARLY THIS MORNING...A
POTENT UPPER LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS
WITH AN ASSOCIATED 996MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED IN WEST CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA. INTENSE PRESSURE RISES/STRONG GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA HAS RESULTED IN
SIGNIFICANT WIND GUSTS OVER 50 MPH. MODELS GENERALLY KEEP THE BRUNT
OF THE STRONGEST WINDS TO THE NORTH/WEST OF OUR CWA...HOWEVER MODELS
IN GENERAL HAVE NOT HANDLED THE STRENGTH OF THE SFC LOW AND
MAGNITUDE OF WINDS TO THE WEST VERY WELL. FRONTAL BOUNDARY/GUSTY
WINDS WILL CROSS OUR CWA THIS MORNING AND GIVEN THAT WINDS HAVE YET TO
SUBSIDE...WILL GO AHEAD AND BUMP UP TIMING OF ONSET OF OUR CURRENT
WIND ADVISORY AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE BY A FEW COUNTIES. THE SURFACE
LOW BEGINS TO FILL DURING THE MORNING AND TREKS INTO MINNESOTA THIS
AFTN. OUR STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD BE REALIZED THRU THE MORNING HOURS
UNTIL AROUND MID AFTERNOON BEFORE THE THE SFC GRADIENT RELAXES...AND
WINDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TOWARD EVENING.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MIXING WILL BE NEAR H75 AT TIMES TODAY
AND MUCH DRIER AIR/DRY DPS WILL ADVECT EAST/MIX DOWN AND LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL DROP BELOW 20 PCNT ACROSS MUCH OF OUR
SOUTHERN CWA. LOOKS LIKE FIRE WEATHER WARNING CRITERIA WILL BE MET
ACROSS NC KANSAS INTO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. CURRENT FIRE WEATHER WATCH
WILL BE CONVERTED INTO A FIRE WEATHER WARNING...WITH THAYER COUNTY
SOMEWHAT QUESTIONABLE AS DPS MAY NOT LOWER SUBSTANTIALLY ENOUGH FOR
RH THRESHOLDS AT TIMES.

HEADING INTO TONIGHT...THE NORTHERN PLAINS SYSTEM EXITS TOWARDS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND A 1036MB SURFACE HIGH BUILDS SOUTH FM THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER. WINDS DROP...AND TEMPS
ARE EXPECTED TO PLUMMET IN THE COLDER...DRY AIRMASS WITH GOOD
RADIATING CONDITIONS. A COLD NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR OUR REGION WITH
LOWS PRIMARILY IN THE TEENS.

THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST ON MONDAY...ALLOWING FOR RETURN
FLOW OF SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO NEXT POTENT
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE ROCKIES LATE MONDAY. ISENTROPIC LIFT
INCREASES AHEAD OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM AS INDICATED ON THE 295K
SURFACE...HOWEVER MODELS HAVE SLOWED ONSET OF SATURATION AND
ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE...PCPN SHLD HOLD OFF NOW UNTIL
MONDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. MOISTURE SURGES NORTH
MONDAY NIGHT IN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND THE LLVL JET
STRENGTHENS TO 60KTS. DIFFERENCES IN THERMAL FIELDS REMAIN BETWEEN
THE NAM/GFS WITH THE GFS SUGGESTING THAT AS PCPN DEVELOPS...LLVL
TEMPS WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A MAINLY LIQUID EVENT. THE NAM
ON THE OTHER HAND CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT PCPN WILL DEVELOP WHEN
SFC TEMPS ARE BELOW FREEZING AND MAY RESULT IN A FEW HOURS OF
FREEZING RAIN/SLEET BEFORE LLVL THERMAL PROFILE WARMS AND
TRANSITIONS PCPN TO RAIN. CONFIDENCE IN THE FREEZING PCPN POTENTIAL
IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH YET TO INSERT IN FORECAST YET...AND WILL MAINTAIN
A R/S MIX FOR NORTHERN AREAS FOR NOW. ALSO MONDAY NIGHT...WITH THE
SLOWER MOISTURE RETURN/ONSET OF PCPN IN GENERAL...MODELS HAVE BACKED
OFF ON INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPES REMAINING BELOW 100 J/KG AND RATHER
HIT AND MISS AT THAT. WITH LESS IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY
PROGGED...HAVE REMOVED THUNDER FM THE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME
FRAME.

THE UPPER LOW LIFTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON TUESDAY AND MODELS
HAVE FINALLY COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT FAVORING A MORE NORTHERN
TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...LIFTING THE LOW INTO NC NEBRASKA/SOUTHERN
SOUTH DAKOTA. PCPN CHCS CONTINUE TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM...APPROACHING DRY SLOT/DRY LINE. THE NAM PROGS MUCAPES
AROUND 400 J/KG AHEAD OF THE DRY LINE AND POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR TSTM
DEVELOPMENT AND A STRONG STORM OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. DRY LINE
SWEEPS ACROSS OUR CWA BY EARLY EVENING...AND WRAPAROUND
PCPN/SNOWFALL ON BACK SIDE OF UPPER LOW SHLD REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AND
HAVE ONLY CARRIED SOME LOW BUFFER POPS...BUT DRY THINGS OUT BEFORE
MIDNIGHT.

LAST BUT NOT LEAST...ANOTHER WINDY DAY WILL UNFOLD FOLLOWING DRY
LINE/FRONTAL PASSAGE ON TUESDAY. INTENSE WESTERLY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP AS THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...RESULTING
IN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WINDS LOOK
TO REACH AT LEAST WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.

LONG TERM...DAYTIME WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. FORTUNATELY...NO
MAJOR ISSUES ANTICIPATED DURING THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH WILL STATE OFF
THE TOP THAT EVEN THOUGH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DEPICTS ONLY ONE
PERIOD OF POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION...ON THURSDAY NIGHT...THERE COULD
EASILY END UP BEING A FEW OTHER PERIODS WHERE AT LEAST SPRINKLES OR
FLURRIES COULD BRUSH PARTS OF THE CWA.

STARTING OFF AT 12Z WEDNESDAY...THE LATEST 00Z OR 06Z RUNS OF THE
ECWMF/GFS/NAM ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT THAN 24 HOURS AGO
REGARDING THE PRIMARY POSITIONING OF SYNOPTIC FEATURES...WITH ALL 3
PLACING THE CENTER OF THE DEPARTING POWERFUL...NEARLY VERTICALLY
STACKED LOW NEAR CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE IA/MN BORDER. ALTHOUGH IT
IS NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THE VERY BACK EDGE OF
THIS SYSTEM COULD STILL PRODUCE SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW MAINLY
WED MORNING IN FAR NORTHERN ZONES...WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP IT PRECIP
FREE FOR NOW. OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL
BUILD INTO THE PLAINS FROM THE WEST...WITH A BROAD SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AXIS STARTING TO NOSE IN FROM THE NORTH AND DIMINISH
BREEZES DURING THE AFTERNOON. BEFORE THIS OCCURS THOUGH...MOST OF
THE DAYTIME HOURS WILL REMAIN QUITE BREEZY/WINDY FROM THE
NORTHWEST...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND 25 MPH LIKELY ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST 1/2 OF THE CWA. ALTHOUGH NOT QUITE ADVERTISING
ADVISORY LEVEL SPEEDS JUST YET DURING THE DAY...THIS MIGHT CHANGE
WITH TIME...AS GFS SOUNDINGS INDICATE MIXING TO AROUND 800MB WITH
MIXED LAYER AVERAGE SPEEDS OVER 30KT. TEMP WISE...MADE VERY LITTLE
CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...RANGING FROM UPPER 30S NORTH TO NEAR
50 FAR SOUTH. IF WRAP-AROUND STRATUS IS SLOW TO VACATE NORTHEAST
COUNTIES...UPPER 30S MAY BE A BIT OPTIMISTIC HOWEVER.

WED NIGHT THROUGH THE DAYTIME THURSDAY...CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH
IN THE FORECAST REMAINING DRY...ESPECIALLY FOR WED NIGHT AS A
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS QUICKLY SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA...PROMOTING A
WELCOME PERIOD OF LIGHT BREEZES. ALTHOUGH PASSING MID/HIGH CLOUDS
SHOULD KEEP TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING OUT...KEPT LOWS ABOUT THE SAME
WITH 20S ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. DURING THE DAY THURS...FORCING
INCREASES AS THE NEXT BATCH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDES OUT OF THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES...PRIMARILY INTO THE DAKOTAS. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL
SEND AT LEAST A WEAK COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
CWA...IT CURRENTLY APPEARS THAT IT WILL REMAIN DRY WITH LIMITED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND...ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF COMES CLOSE TO BRUSHING
THE FAR NORTHERN CWA WITH SOME LIGHT QPF DURING THE DAY. TEMP
WISE...AGAIN PRETTY MUCH STATUS QUO WITH A RANGE FROM MID 40S NORTH
TO MID 50S SOUTH.

THURS NIGHT...MAINTAINED SLIGHT POPS FOR RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS ALL BUT
PARTS OF THE NORTHWEST CWA PER ALLBLEND CONSENSUS...BUT CONFIDENCE
IN COVERAGE IS LOW AS ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY SWINGS
EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...ROTATING AROUND THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE PARENT 500MB CIRCULATION NEAR THE ND/CANADA BORDER.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE GFS REMAIN QUITE DRY...ALTHOUGH THE
ECMWF TARGETS MAINLY KS ZONES FOR A LIGHT QPF EVENT WITHIN AN
EAST-WEST ZONE OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS.

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...KEPT IT DRY ALTHOUGH ANOTHER BATCH OF UPPER
JET ENERGY DIGGING INTO THE NORTHWEST CONUS WILL CONTINUE TO CARVE
OUT A FAIRLY EXPANSIVE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS DURING THIS
TIME. BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS SUGGEST THAT VARIOUS POCKETS OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION COULD FLIRT WITH THE CWA DURING THIS TIME...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW AT THIS RANGE TO INSERT A MENTION. KEPT HIGH
TEMPS FRIDAY FAIRLY UNIFORM...WITH NEARLY THE ENTIRE CWA SOMEWHERE
IN THE 40S.

FINALLY FOR SATURDAY...FOLLOWED ALLBLEND CONSENSUS AND PULLED
MENTION OF SLIGHT POPS FROM SOUTHWESTERN CWA THAT WAS JUST
INTRODUCED YESTERDAY...BUT THAT/S NOT TO SAY THAT THEY WON/T NEED
RE-INTRODUCED AT SOME POINT DOWN THE ROAD AS BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE SHOWING HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AT LEAST FOR NOW
HAVE SAT HIGHS WELL INTO THE 40S MOST AREAS...BUT THIS COULD PROVE
TO BE A BIT OPTIMISTIC ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST. PEEKING JUST BEYOND THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST PERIOD...NO MAJOR WEATHER SYSTEMS IN SIGHT THROUGH
LEAST MARCH 5TH...WITH SOME DEGREE OF RIDGING SUGGESTED TO DOMINATE
THE UPPER AIR PATTERN.

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NEZ072>076-
082>087.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NEZ039>041-046>048-
060>063-072-073-082.

KS...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR KSZ005>007-
017>019.

UPDATE/AVIATION...BRYANT
SHORT TERM...CF
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI

1105 AM CST SUN FEB 26 2012

.UPDATE...

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA WILL TRACK NORTHEAST
INTO NORTHERN WI BY EARLY EVENING AND ACROSS THE UPPER PENINSULA OF
MICHIGAN TONIGHT. STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD BE APPROACHING THEIR
HIGHEST SPEEDS AND GUSTS BETWEEN NOW AND AROUND 1 PM...PER RUC AND 12Z
NAM MODEL SNDGS. WE ARE JUST BEGINNING TO MIX INTO THE STRONG WINDS
THAT ARE MOVING OVERHEAD THIS MORNING WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET. THE
EXACT HEIGHT OF MIXING IS VERY UNCERTAIN GIVEN THE MID CLOUDS
OVERHEAD AND SNOW PACK/COLD SURFACE TEMPERATURES. MODELS SUGGEST
MIXING UP TO AROUND 1500 FEET AT MOST LOCATIONS...EXCEPT UP TO 2000
FEET AT SHEBOYGAN AND NORTHWARD. THEREFORE...OPTED TO ADD SHEBOYGAN
COUNTY TO THE EXISTING WIND ADVISORY.

MAX TEMPS ARE ALSO UNCERTAIN FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION IS STRONG AND UPSTREAM OBS IN EASTERN IOWA ARE ALREADY IN
THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 ON THE NORTH END OF THE SNOWPACK. KEPT
CONSERVATIVE MAX TEMPS AROUND 40 TO 41 GIVEN OUR SNOWPACK AND MID
CLOUDS OVERHEAD LIMITING THE HEATING AND MIXING...BUT WILL KEEP AN
EYE ON THEM AND MAY NEED TO BUMP THEM UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES FOR
THIS AFTERNOON.

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHWEST MN WILL REACH NORTHERN WI LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND CROSS THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN TONIGHT.
THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE LOW CROSSING TO THE NORTH WILL
CAUSE STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY AS THEY VEER SOUTHWEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AND GUSTY THROUGH TONIGHT OUT OF
THE WEST DUE THE COLD AIR ADVECTION.

SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE NOW TAPPING INTO THE STRONG WINDS JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE CAUSING HIGH WIND GUSTS. HIGHEST WIND GUSTS WILL BE NEAR
LAKE MICHIGAN...INCLUDING MKE AND ENW. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
FOR SOUTHEAST WI. WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS LIKELY WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 TO
40 KNOTS POSSIBLE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.

WITH 55 KNOT WINDS AROUND 2000 FT THIS MORNING...LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR IS POSSIBLE. THE GREATEST DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IS BETWEEN THE
SURFACE WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS...AND 3000 FEET WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS GREATER THAN 50 KNOTS.

VFR CIGS TODAY...THEN MVFR AS COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS PUSHES IN FROM
THE NORTH BEHIND THE STRONG LOW INTO AT LEAST NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA TOWARD THE DELLS TO SHEBOYGAN LATE TONIGHT. THE
MVFR CIGS COULD SAG TOWARD THE ILLINOIS BORDER TOWARDS SUNRISE
MONDAY.

.MARINE...

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 00Z. THIS IS THE TIME PERIOD
WITH THE HIGHEST GUST POTENTIAL WITH A SOUTH WIND AND SLIGHT ONSHORE
COMPONENT. WINDS AND GUSTS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY AS WINDS VEER
SOUTHWEST BEHIND THE SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS AHEAD OF LOW WILL BUILD LARGE WAVES. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
WILL BE NEEDED AFTER THE GALES EXPIRE DUE TO BRISK WEST WINDS.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM CST SUN FEB 26 2012/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTH DAKOTA WILL MOVE TO CENTRAL MINNESOTA
BY NOON AND REACH SOUTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR THIS EVENING.

THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE LOW CROSSING TO THE NORTH WILL
CAUSE STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING.

EARLY TONIGHT A STRONG WEST WIND OCCURS AT 850 MB ON THE 06Z
NAM...REACHING 70 KNOTS. THIS WITH STEEPER LAPSE RATES BEHIND
COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT. WILL INCREASE WINDS FROM MOS FOR THIS.

THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
APPEARS SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL TAKE HOLD AND BRING A QUIET DAY IN
THE WAKE OF THE PRIOR DAYS STORM SYSTEM.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTH DAKOTA WILL MOVE
TO CENTRAL MINNESOTA BY NOON AND REACH SOUTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR
THIS EVENING.

THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE LOW CROSSING TO THE NORTH WILL
CAUSE STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING.

MARINE...STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTH DAKOTA WILL MOVE TO CENTRAL
MINNESOTA BY NOON AND REACH SOUTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR THIS EVENING.

THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE LOW CROSSING TO THE NORTH WILL
CAUSE STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WIZ052-060-065-
066-069>072.

LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643>646.

UPDATE...MRC
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...COLLAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS GREEN BAY WI

1030 AM CST SUN FEB 26 2012

UPDATED SHORT TERM AND AVIATION PORTION.

.SHORT TERM...TDA/TNGT/MON.
IN THE NEAR-TERM...DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR TAKING A TOLL ON PRECIPITATION...
AS MUCH WHAT IS ON RADAR IS VIRGA OR VERY LIGHT SPRINKLES AND
FLURRIES. 26/15Z RUC SEEMS TO BE HANDLING THIS WELL AND KEEPS MOST
OF THE MEASURABLE PRECIP N OF THE UPPER MICHIGAN BORDER UNTIL MID
AFTERNOON. HAVE CUT BACK ON PRECIP PROB AND AMOUNTS FOR THE DAY.
BAND OF VIRGA/LIGHT PRECIP IS MOVING THROUGH EASTERN PART OF
FORECAST AREA PRESENTLY AND HAVE ACCOUNTED FOR THAT IN THE UPDATE.

MILD AIR THAT DOWNSLOPED THE ROCKIES WL SURGE INTO THE FCST AREA
LATE TDA...SO MAXES WL PROBABLY OCCUR ARND 00Z. BUT DESPITE
WARMING TEMPS...STG S/SE WINDS WL MAKE IT A RATHER UNPLEASANT DAY
TO BE OUTDOORS. STRONGEST SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WL OCCUR MID-
DAY...WHEN WINDS COULD GUST TO 35-40 MPH ACRS THE SRN 1/2 OF THE
FCST AREA...AND EVEN HIGHER AT THE LAKESHORE.

A LITTLE BIT OF A LULL IN THE WINDS WL OCCUR DURING THE EARLY
EVENING...THEN THERE WL PROBABLY BE ANOTHER SURGE OF STG WINDS
OVERNIGHT AS CAA SWEEPS ACRS THE AREA AND MIXES STRONGER WINDS
BACK DOWN TO THE SFC. GIVEN THE EXPECTED WINDS...BUILT 3-HOURLY
TEMP GRIDS FROM A BLEND OF GUID...AND THEN TOOK MINS FM THOSE.
THAT TECHNIQUE TYPICALLY WORKS WELL DURING NIGHTS WITH STG WINDS.

WINDS WL SLOWLY DIMINISH MON AS THE STORM PULLS AWAY FM THE RGN.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
A MAJOR WINTER STORM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT MUCH OF WISCONSIN FROM
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE WELL ADVERTISED
STORM IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE A LITTLE SLOWER AS IT RUNS INTO LARGE
HUDSON BAY HIGH. HAVE REMOVED CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW MONDAY NIGHT
AND LOWERED CHANCES FOR SNOW TUESDAY MORNING...THEN RAISED SNOW
CHANCES CONSIDERABLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE BRUNT OF THE STORM
WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH THE SNOW TAPERING OFF OR
ENDING WEDNESDAY EVENING.

THE 00Z MODEL RUNS TONIGHT CONTINUE TO SHOW DIFFERENCES IN THE
WARM LAYER AND HOW FAR NORTH IT WILL MAKE IT INTO WISCONSIN. THIS
WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON SNOWFALL TOTALS AND PRECIPITATION
TYPES ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THE
WRF MODEL WOULD ALSO SUGGEST A DRY SLOT MOVING OVER THIS PORTION
OF THE STATE THAT WOULD LIMIT SNOWFALL TOTALS FOR A PERIOD OF TIME
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...WILL GO WITH SNOW/OCCASIONAL SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA. CURRENT SNOW GRIDS HAVE 6 TO 13 INCHES WITH THE HIGHEST
TOTALS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...
WHILE THE LOWEST AMOUNTS ARE FROM GREEN BAY AND THE FOX CITIES
EAST TO THE LAKE. IF THERE IS LESS OF A WARM LAYER OR THE DRY SLOT
DOES NOT MATERIALIZE ACROSS GREEN BAY AND THE FOX CITIES EAST TO
THE LAKE...SNOWFALL TOTALS WILL NEED TO BE INCREASED
SUBSTANTIALLY. STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...WHICH WILL
CAUSE CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF THE SNOW. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH LATER WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AS THE
LOW MOVES ACROSS THE STATE. SINCE THE SYSTEM IS SLOWER TO EXIT THE
REGION...LIGHT SNOW WILL LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN. SNOW CHANCES WILL
PROBABLY NEED TO BE INCREASED WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH LATER
FORECASTS. COULD SEE SOME MINOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION ACROSS
EASTERN WISCONSIN.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO SYSTEM FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
ECMWF HAS SHIFTED THE SYSTEM EAST OF THE AREA...THE GFS CLIPS OUR
EAST WHILE THE CANADIAN MODEL WOULD SUGGEST ANOTHER SNOWSTORM.
LOOKING AT THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...THERE ARE SOME ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS THAT WOULD BRING THE SYSTEM FURTHER WEST. WILL CONTINUE
WITH CURRENT CHANCES FOR SNOW AND LET THE MODELS CONVERGE ON A
SOLUTION.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE...VFR CIGS FOR MUCH OF
AREA. EXCEPTIONS ARE NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN WITH CIGS AROUND 2500 FT FROM
TIME TO TIME FROM STRATUS OFF LAKE MICHIGAN. IN ADDITION...THE FAR
NORTH WILL SEE MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.
STRONG SE WINDS WILL BECOME S THIS AFTERNOON THEN SW DURING THE EVE.
GUSTS NEAR 35 KTS POSSIBLE.

JKL
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&