Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 02/20/12
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
630 PM EST SUN FEB 19 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE BACK
ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY...AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE COAST...AND A
WARM FRONT BRINGS A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
SOUTHEAST CONUS STORM CONTINUES TO TRACK EASTWARD AND WILL EXIT
THE CAROLINA COAST THIS EVENING. A RATHER LARGE SURFACE HIGH THAT
EXTENDS FROM EASTERN CANADA THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
MID-LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL SLOWLY EDGE EAST TONIGHT.
THE COMPLICATED FACTOR WILL BE THE PERSISTENT STRATOCU DOWNWIND OF
LAKE ONTARIO THAT COVERS MOST OF UPSTATE NY /WEST OF THE HUDSON
RIVER/. RUC13 SEEMS TO BE SLOWLY CAPTURING THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
THAT WANTS TO PERSIST A BIT LONGER. WE WILL FAVOR A PT-MOCLDY
SKIES MAINLY WEST OF THE HUDSON THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH
IMPROVEMENTS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. MOS NUMBERS TONIGHT ARE VERY
CLOSE TO OUR CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST SO LITTLE CHANGES NEEDED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BIG BUBBLE NO TROUBLE THROUGH TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH WILL BE IN
FIRM CONTROL OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. WHILE THERMAL
PROFILES ARE SLIGHTLY COOLER ON MONDAY...WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE AND
LACK OF SNOW COVER...WE WILL FAVOR THE WARMER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE.
THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS MIGRATING ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS IS
FORECAST TO EJECT OUT ONTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY. THERE IS
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TRACKING THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE MID
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY EARLY TUESDAY THEN WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS
OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION LATE IN THE DAY. THE
COMBINATION OF DIFFUSE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL
JET DYNAMICS WILL ALLOW FOR CLOUDS TO INCREASE AND INTRODUCE THE
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT. BUFR PROFILES AND
THICKNESS SCHEMES POINT TOWARD A RAIN/SNOW SHOWER MIXTURE DURING
THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. FORECAST QPF VALUES ARE LIGHT WITH GENERALLY
TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OR LESS /THE HIGHER VALUES ACROSS THE
FAVORABLE UPSLOPE TERRAIN LOCATIONS WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW/. MOS
VALUES ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT BUT ONCE AGAIN WE WILL FAVOR THE
WARMER SIDE DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF CLOUDS
INCREASING...STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND FAVORABLE GROUND
CONDITIONS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MOS GUIDANCE. A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL BE TRACKING EAST ACROSS NEW
YORK STATE AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
LIGHT AMOUNTS OF MIXED PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ON ITS
HEELS...ANOTHER LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK GENERALLY EAST ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND LIFT JUST WEST OF OUR AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY...PROVIDING GREATER
QPFS. GIVEN THE TRACK AND EXPECTED INTENSIFICATION OF THE LOW...
CAN`T RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN AS
THINGS SPIN UP THURSDAY NIGHT BUT GOOD WARM SURFACE ADVECTION
GETTING INTO OUR AREA IS QUESTIONABLE AS IT/S MID-LEVEL DYNAMICS THAT
APPEAR TO HAVE THE UPPER HAND.
THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL PULL THROUGH ON
FRIDAY...BUT THE MAIN COLD AIR BEHIND THE SYSTEM WILL HOLD BACK WITH
A WEAK IMPULSE THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY...
POSSIBLY SETTING UP A LAKE EFFECT PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS
MEANS THAT THE SHOWERY DAYTIME ACTIVITY BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON FRIDAY
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LIQUID OR A MIX...BEFORE COLD
INFILTRATION TURNS IT BACK TO SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT AS IT WINDS
DOWN BEFORE THE LAKE EFFECT MACHINE KICKS IN.
SATURDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY COLDER...WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW AND
THE LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. FROM LAKE GEORGE ON SOUTH...GOING NEAR ZERO POPS
BUT DO HAVE SLT CHC POPS MOST OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE STARTING TO BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH DURING THAT
TIME.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NO AVIATION WEATHER RELATED PROBLEMS THROUGH MONDAY AS VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES.
ANY MID LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND KGFL SHOULD DISSIPATE BY MIDNIGHT.
SOME HIGH CLOUDS...ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE STORM WELL TO OUR
SOUTH...BE MAINLY ACROSS THE KPOU AREA OVERNIGHT....EXITING ON
MONDAY.
THE WIND WILL BE NORTH AROUND 5-10KTS TONIGHT...AROUND 10KTS ON
MONDAY.
OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT-TUE NGT...VFR...NO SIG WX.
WED...VFR. CHC MVFR -SHRA/AM -SHSN.
WED NIGHT...SUB-VFR.CIG. CHC -SHRA/-SHSN.
THU-FRI...SUB-VFR. CIG. CHC MIXED PCPN.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS. DRY WEATHER
WILL PERSIST UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT...WHEN A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.
A MORE WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIER PRECIPITATION SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE
HYDRO SERVICE AREA DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WITH SOME
RAIN AND SNOW. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF THIS LATER WEEK SYSTEM AT THIS TIME.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...BGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
102 PM EST SAT FEB 18 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A CLIPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WITH SOME SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL USHER IN SEASONABLY COLD AND DRY WEATHER FROM
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY INTO THE
WASHINGTON/S BIRTHDAY HOLIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 102 PM EST...RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS THAT MOVED ACROSS THE
CATSKILLS AND INTO THE BERKSHIRES HAVE STARTED TO DIMINISH DUE TO
LOW LEVEL DRY AIR AND THE BEST FORCING REMAINING FURTHER TO THE
WEST. AT THE SAME TIME...SNOW SHOWERS HAVE REALLY STARTED TO
BLOSSOM OVER THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...EVIDENT ON THE LATEST
RETURNS FROM THE KTYX RADAR AND WEBCAM IMAGERY...AS AN APPROACHING
SFC CLIPPER AND UPSLOPE FLOW IS TEAMING UP. HAVE KEPT
LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS FOR THE WESTERN DACKS FOR THE EARLY TO MID
AFTN...AND HAVE GONE SLIGHT CHC/LOW CHC ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE CWA. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S THIS
AFTN FOR VALLEY AREAS...WITH LOW TO MID 30S FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. SOME AREAS IN THE WESTERN DACKS RECEIVING SNOW WILL
PROBABLY REMAIN BELOW FREEZING AND COULD BEGIN TO DROP A FEW
DEGREES AS WELL.
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING...THE APPROACHING SFC LOW
AND A SHARP TROUGH ALOFT WILL APPROACH FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
THERE IS PLENTY OF COLD AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE...WITH 500 HPA TEMPS AS LOW AS -35 DEGREES C. PLENTY OF LIFT
AND INSTABILITY SHOULD LEAD TO A BAND OF LOOSELY ORGANIZED
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS THAT WILL QUICKLY MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE AREA. THE LATEST 15 UTC 3KM HRRR SUPPORTS THIS IDEA AS WELL.
WHILE SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE INITIALLY WARM ENOUGH IN THE VALLEYS TO
LET THE PRECIP BEGIN AS RAIN...TEMPS SHOULD WETBULB TO EVEN ALLOW
MOST VALLEY AREAS TO TRANSITION OVER THE SNOW BEFORE IT ENDS BY
LATER THIS EVENING. AREAS TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/WESTERN
DACKS MAY REMAIN IN A MORE STEADIER SNOW FOR A FEW HOURS. TOTAL
AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A DUSTING TO AN INCH IN THE CAPITAL
REGION...WITH 1-3 INCHES FOR HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS...AND PERHAPS 2 TO
LOCALLY 4 ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.
PRECIP WILL DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT AND CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR
OUT. MIN TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S...WITH
SOME TEENS ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE FAST MOVING CLIPPER MOVES EAST OF THE REGION BEFORE
MIDNIGHT WITH THE SNOW SHOWERS/LIGHT SNOW QUICKLY ENDING. THE
TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY BE AN INCH OR LESS ACROSS
THE REGION WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE
BERKSHIRES...WRN DACKS...W-CNTRL MOHAWK VALLEY...ERN
CATSKILLS...AND THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY. COLD AIR ADVECTION OCCURS IN
THE WAKE OF THE CLIPPER WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN NORTH OF
LAKE HURON AND JAMES BAY. MEANWHILE...A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL STAY WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION...OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES AND SHIFTING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WITH THE SPLIT
UPPER LEVEL FLOW...NOT PHASING...AND THE NRN STREAM TROUGH STEERS
THE STORM OUT TO SEA. EXPECT THE SKIES TO GRADUALLY CLEAR SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH LOWS 20-25F IN THE VALLEYS...AND MID AND UPPER TEENS
OVER THE MTNS.
SUNDAY...THE LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES ANTICYCLONIC WITH ANY
LAKE EFFECT OVER CNTRL NY IN THE NW FLOW. THE RH PROFILES ARE VERY
DRY WITH PLENTY OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE FROM THE BROAD ANTICYCLONE TO
THE NORTH AND WEST. SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
STORM MOVING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES MAY REACH THE SOUTHERN
ZONES. HIGHS WILL TREND TOWARDS SEASONABLE READINGS WITH MID AND
UPPER 30S IN THE VALLEY /EXCEPT OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT/ WHERE SOME LOWER 40S WILL BE POSSIBLE...AND U20S TO M30S OVER
THE MTNS. THESE VALUES WERE CLOSER TO THE METMOS VALUES.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES WITH
THE SFC ANTICYCLONE RIDGING IN OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING IF THE WINDS
GO CALM. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER THE REGION LATE
MONDAY PM TO MONDAY NIGHT...WITH HEIGHTS AND H850 TEMPS ON THE
RISE FOR TUESDAY. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THE STRETCH...WITH
LOTS OF SUNSHINE FOR THE PRESIDENTS DAY HOLIDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST GROWS WITH TIME. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO THE LONGWAVE PATTERN...WITH A
STRENGTHENING RIDGE OFFSHORE THE WEST COAST AND TROUGHING ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CONUS. HOWEVER...THIS IS NOT TRANSLATING TO AGREEMENT
WITH THE PLACEMENT...MOVEMENT AND/OR STRENGTHEN OF SURFACE
FEATURES/SYSTEMS. THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER HAS
FAVORED THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THIS IS DUE TO
THE FACT THAT THE OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GFS...ECMWF AND UKMET ARE
ALL MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE WHICH IS SLOWER
MOVING SYSTEMS FROM THE MIDWEST EASTWARD MID WEEK ONWARD. AT THIS
TIME LOOKS LIKE UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR TO START. CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE DAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
EXPECT A FEW HOURS OF MVFR CONDITIONS...BUT MODELS INDICATE STRONG
SQUALL LINE MAY DEVELOP ON LEADING EDGE OF COLD POOL LATER TODAY.
THIS COULD RESULT IN BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR ALL TAF SITES IN SNOW. A
QUICK COATING (LESS THAN AN INCH) OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE AS WELL. VFR
CONDITIONS RETURN BY MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW.
WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY AND MAINLY LIGHT SHIFTING MORE TO THE
NORTHWEST THIS EVENING AT 5 TO 10 KTS AND COULD BECOME GUSTY THROUGH
MIDNIGHT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS. WINDS DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND SHIFT
TO THE NORTH NORTHWEST. TOMORROW...WINDS NORTHWEST TO NORTH 5 TO 10
KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...
SUN-TUE...VFR...NO SIG WX.
TUE NIGHT-THU...VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHRA/-SHSN.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SOME
HYDRO GAGES MAY SHOW ICE EFFECTS FROM THE MOHAWK VALLEY NORTHWARD
IN THE ALBANY HYDRO SERVICE AREA.
THE CLIPPER LOW WILL BRING LIGHT QPF OF ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN
INCH. SOME LOCATIONS WILL GET A FEW INCHES OF SNOWFALL. DRY
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY THROUGH MOST OF TUESDAY.
AS A REMINDER....THE WINTER SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. PLEASE
REFER TO ALBESFALY /FGUS71 KALY/ FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/WASULA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...SND
HYDROLOGY...WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
1051 AM EST SAT FEB 18 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION THIS MORNING. A CLIPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL USHER IN SEASONABLY COLD AND DRY WEATHER FROM
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY INTO THE
PRESIDENTS DAY HOLIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1035AM EST...SNOW SHOWERS HAVE MOVED A LITTLE FASTER THAN
PREVIOUS FORECAST. UPDATED FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT BASED ON 12Z NAM
AND LATEST HRRR. MODELS INDICATE FIRST BATCH OF SNOW WILL WEAKEN
THIS MORNING. LATER TODAY ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS
DEVELOP WITH VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE. SHORT WAVE HAS -38C AIR AT 500MB
ACCORDING TO RUC AND THIS WILL RESULT IN VERY STEEP AFTERNOON AND
EVENING LAPSE RATES FROM SURFACE TO 500MB. CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND
SQUALLS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON FROM MOHAWK VALLEY SOUTH AND
SHOULD BE SNOW IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH A MIX IN THE VALLEYS TO
START. TEMPERATURES SHOULD QUICKLY DROP WHERE PRECIPITATION FALLS
AND PRECIP TYPE WILL BE MOSTLY SNOW LATER TODAY ALL AREAS. COMMA
HEAD EXPECTED TO RESULT IN MORE STEADY LIGHT SNOW OVER ADIRONDACKS.
UPPED SNOWFALL SLIGHTLY IN ADIRONDACKS AND CATSKILLS BASED ON MODEL
QPF AND FIRST ROUND OF SNOW ON RADAR. ADJUSTED TEMPS DOWN QUICKER
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS TEMPS WILL DROP SUDDENLY WHEN PRECIP STARTS.
12Z NAM ALSO HAS HIGHER WINDS FORECAST OVER CATSKILLS LATER TODAY
AND THIS EVENING WITH STRONG MIXING POTENTIAL.
PREVIOUS....
DID SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUDS AND POPS BASED ON SATELLITE AND
RADAR TRENDS. LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE THIS MORNING THAN EARLIER
FORECAST INDICATED. BAND OF MOD-HEAVY SNOW MOVING THROUGH FINGER
LAKES PRODUCED 1 INCH IN 1 HOUR AT BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE FAST MOVING CLIPPER MOVES EAST OF THE REGION BEFORE
MIDNIGHT WITH THE SNOW SHOWERS/LIGHT SNOW QUICKLY ENDING. THE
TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY BE AN INCH OR LESS ACROSS
THE REGION WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE
BERKSHIRES...WRN DACKS...W-CNTRL MOHAWK VALLEY...ERN
CATSKILLS...AND THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY. COLD AIR ADVECTION OCCURS IN
THE WAKE OF THE CLIPPER WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN NORTH OF
LAKE HURON AND JAMES BAY. MEANWHILE...A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL STAY WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION...OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES AND SHIFTING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WITH THE SPLIT
UPPER LEVEL FLOW...NOT PHASING...AND THE NRN STREAM TROUGH STEERS
THE STORM OUT TO SEA. EXPECT THE SKIES TO GRADUALLY CLEAR SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH LOWS 20-25F IN THE VALLEYS...AND MID AND UPPER TEENS
OVER THE MTNS.
SUNDAY...THE LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES ANTICYCLONIC WITH ANY
LAKE EFFECT OVER CNTRL NY IN THE NW FLOW. THE RH PROFILES ARE VERY
DRY WITH PLENTY OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE FROM THE BROAD ANTICYCLONE TO
THE NORTH AND WEST. SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
STORM MOVING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES MAY REACH THE SOUTHERN
ZONES. HIGHS WILL TREND TOWARDS SEASONABLE READINGS WITH MID AND
UPPER 30S IN THE VALLEY /EXCEPT OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT/ WHERE SOME LOWER 40S WILL BE POSSIBLE...AND U20S TO M30S OVER
THE MTNS. THESE VALUES WERE CLOSER TO THE METMOS VALUES.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES WITH
THE SFC ANTICYCLONE RIDGING IN OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING IF THE WINDS
GO CALM. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER THE REGION LATE
MONDAY PM TO MONDAY NIGHT...WITH HEIGHTS AND H850 TEMPS ON THE
RISE FOR TUESDAY. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THE STRETCH...WITH
LOTS OF SUNSHINE FOR THE PRESIDENTS DAY HOLIDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST GROWS WITH TIME. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO THE LONGWAVE PATTERN...WITH A
STRENGTHENING RIDGE OFFSHORE THE WEST COAST AND TROUGHING ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CONUS. HOWEVER...THIS IS NOT TRANSLATING TO AGREEMENT
WITH THE PLACEMENT...MOVEMENT AND/OR STRENGTHEN OF SURFACE
FEATURES/SYSTEMS. THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER HAS
FAVORED THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THIS IS DUE TO
THE FACT THAT THE OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GFS...ECMWF AND UKMET ARE
ALL MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE WHICH IS SLOWER
MOVING SYSTEMS FROM THE MIDWEST EASTWARD MID WEEK ONWARD. AT THIS
TIME LOOKS LIKE UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WILL HAVE SOME WEAK SURFACE RIDGING AHEAD OF OUR NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION
TO MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE DAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE AT KALB WITH A RAIN/SNOW
MIX CHANGING TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING. A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW IS ALSO
EXPECTED AT KGFL EARLY THIS EVENING. DON`T HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
PLACE PRECIPITATION IN KPOU TAF. AT THIS TIME...ONLY EXPECTED MVFR
CONDITIONS...BUT CAN`T RULE OUT IFR VISIBILITY WITH SNOW. OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEFORE AND AFTER THE PRECIPITATION.
WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY AND MAINLY LIGHT SHIFTING MORE TO THE NORTH
WITH THIS EVENING IN THE WAKE OF THE CLIPPER`S COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
OUTLOOK...
SUN-TUE...VFR...NO SIG WX.
TUE NIGHT-WED...VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHRA/-SHSN.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SOME
HYDRO GAGES MAY SHOW ICE EFFECTS FROM THE MOHAWK VALLEY NORTHWARD
IN THE ALBANY HYDRO SERVICE AREA.
THE CLIPPER LOW WILL BRING LIGHT QPF OF ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN
INCH. SOME LOCATIONS WILL GET A FEW INCHES OF SNOWFALL. DRY
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY THROUGH MOST OF TUESDAY.
AS A REMINDER....THE WINTER SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. PLEASE
REFER TO ALBESFALY /FGUS71 KALY/ FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...SND
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TALLAHASSEE FL
1245 AM EST Sat Feb 18 2012
.Update (Rest of Tonight)...
02Z water vapor and H4 RUC analysis shows a strong upper level
disturbance crossing the southern plains with a deep feed of
mid/upper level moisture streaming northward of it over the Gulf of
Mexico. This shortwave will move eastward and provide the energy for
a potential severe weather event later Saturday and into Saturday
night. More about this potential event with the early morning AFD.
For the remainder of tonight, the weather will remain generally
quiet. Have removed PoPs from the forecast in agreement with the
guidance consensus, with the exception of a slight chance for showers
returning to the Panhandle Coast after 4-5AM. Otherwise look for
mostly cloudy conditions and temperatures in the middle 50s to lower
60s. Have a good night.
&&
.AVIATION (Through 06Z Sunday)...
VFR/MVFR conditions continue overnight north and west of a line from
KPFN to KHOE. Locations south and east of this line are in close
proximity to a stalled cold front and low cloud ceilings are hanging
in. Most computer model guidance shows these terminals going down
even further to LIFR with reduced visibilities. This seems to not
fit the current situation very well and thus we have decided to go
against that line of thinking. Later today the afore mentioned
stalled cold front will wave back north bringing a dose of rain to
all terminals in the area. A squall line is expected to approach
after midnight Saturday. Ahead of this squall line, low level wind
shear conditions can be expected.
&&
.MARINE...
This will be a bad weekend for boating with a strong cold front
moving through the area. Southerly winds and seas will increase
substantially on Saturday ahead of the front along with the threat
of strong to severe storms lasting into Saturday night. Behind the
front, strong westerly winds may gust to gale force with seas
exceeding 10 feet offshore. High surf and dangerous rip currents
are also expected along the panhandle beaches. Conditions should
gradually improve by early next week.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
No fire weather concerns are expected through the period.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 57 70 64 72 40 / 10 60 90 40 0
Panama City 58 69 64 67 41 / 20 90 90 10 0
Dothan 55 68 61 63 37 / 10 100 100 10 0
Albany 52 68 61 69 36 / 10 90 100 30 0
Valdosta 55 72 64 72 39 / 10 70 80 60 0
Cross City 57 75 64 72 39 / 10 40 60 60 0
Apalachicola 59 68 65 70 41 / 20 70 80 20 0
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
GA...None.
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1147 AM CST SAT FEB 18 2012
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1040 AM CST SAT FEB 18 2012
FORECAST GENERALLY LOOKS ON TRACK TODAY AND JUST A FEW MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HIGHS AND SKY COVER ELEMENTS TODAY. INCREASING
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS DURING TODAY TO GIVE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER
SE IL THIS AFTERNOON WHILE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAIL OVER MUCH OF
CENTRAL IL WITH SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS OVER EAST CENTRAL IL THIS
AFTERNOON. COOLER HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S FROM I-74 NE...MID 40S
CENTRAL SECTIONS OF IL AND UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50F IN SOUTHEAST IL.
NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH AND GUSTS NEAR 20 MPH TO TURN NE LATER
TODAY.
LATE MORNING SURFACE MAP SHOWS 1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE
IA/NE BORDER AND RIDGING INTO MN WAS PROVIDING AMPLE SUNSHINE OVER
CENTRAL IL THIS MORNING. 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE WAS NEAR NIAGARA
FALLS WITH ITS COLD FRONT PRESSING JUST SE OF THE OHIO RIVER INTO
CENTRAL ARKANSAS. A 1006 MB LOW PRESSURE WAS OFF THE SE TEXAS COAST
AND A WARM FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM WAS
SPREADING MID/HIGH CLOUDS OVER SOUTHERN IL WITH THIN VEIL OF
CIRRUS CLOUDS OF SE IL FROM I-70 SE TO LAWRENCEVILLE. ALOFT A 548
DM 500 MB LOW WAS OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA WHILE A DEEP UPPER LEVEL
TROF EXTENDED SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL TEXAS WITH THUNDERSTORMS
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE OVER LA...SOUTHERN MS AND FAR SE TX.
12Z MODELS LIKE THE NAM...SREF AND RUC DRIFT HIGH PRESSURE INTO WI
AND MI THIS EVENING WHILE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SE TX COAST MOVES
INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION AND LOW CLOUDS TO
STAY SE OF CENTRAL IL THOUGH MID/HIGH CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO
INCREASE OVER SE IL DURING THIS AFTERNOON AND PARTS OF CENTRAL IL
SE OF THE IL RIVER THIS EVENING. N/NE WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH AND GUSTS
NEAR 20 MPH TO KEEP HIGHS UP TO 10 DEGREES COOLER TODAY MOSTLY IN
THE LOW TO MID 40S...EXCEPT UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50F IN SE IL. TEMPS
CURRENTLY RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 30S OVER CENTRAL IL AND MID
40S IN FAR SE IL AROUND OLNEY AND LAWRENCEVILLE AND MT CARMEL
AIRPORT.
HUETTL
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1145 AM CST SAT FEB 18 2012
BROKEN MVFR CEILINGS OF 2-3K FT POSSIBLE INTO MID AFTERNOON FROM
BMI AND DEC EAST TO CMI WHILE CUMULUS CLOUD FIELD SHOULD MOSTLY
STAY EAST OF PIA AND SPI THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED TO BROKEN
CUMULUS CLOUD FIELD THAT DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY SUNSET. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER SOUTHERN IL TO
SPREAD NE INTO CENTRAL IL MAINLY DURING THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE
INTO SUNDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY FROM I-55 SE. NNE WINDS 10-15 KTS WITH
GUSTS OF 15-20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON TO TURN NE BY SUNSET AND BE
MAINLY AROUND 10 KTS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.
1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE IA/NE BORDER TO DRIFT EAST INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE
1006 MB LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SE TEXAS COAST TO LIFT INTO THE LOWER
MS VALLEY BY OVERNIGHT AND DEEPEN TO 1001 MB OVER CENTRAL/NORTHERN GA
JUST SOUTH OF ATLANTA BY 18Z/NOON SUNDAY. ITS LOW CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION WILL STAY SE OF CENTRAL IL THIS WEEKEND WITH JUST
ITS MID AND HIGH CLOUD SHIELD AFFECTING CENTRAL IL LATER TODAY
INTO SUNDAY. TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH STRONGER NE WINDS WILL
ALSO IMPACT AREAS MORE SE OF CENTRAL IL THIS WEEKEND.
HUETTL
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 214 AM CST SAT FEB 18 2012
COMPLEX SPLIT-FLOW UPPER PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS NORTH
AMERICA...WITH A VIGOROUS WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH
OF THE JET STREAM BRINGING ACTIVE WEATHER TO THE LOWER-MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY AND GULF COAST. MAIN SHORT-TERM QUESTION FOR CENTRAL
ILLINOIS WILL BE HOW FAR NORTH MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL MAKE
IT LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES WILL
PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY TODAY.
NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPS
TO CENTRAL ILLINOIS...HOWEVER INCOMING AIRMASS IS STILL WARMER
THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGH TEMPS WILL DROP BY ABOUT
10 DEGREES FROM YESTERDAY...WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 40S. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS
OF THE KILX CWA...WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES NOTED ALONG
AND SOUTH OF I-70.
POTENT UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WILL TRACK E/NE
ACROSS THE GULF STATES TONIGHT...TAPPING INTO DEEP GULF MOISTURE
AND RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD PRECIP FROM THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY
SOUTHWARD. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TRACK OF UPPER/SURFACE
SYSTEMS...WITH SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES AMONG THEIR QPF FIELDS. WITH
DRY N/NE FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MIDWEST...THINK THERE WILL BE
A SHARP NORTHERN EDGE TO THE PRECIP SHIELD...MOST LIKELY ACROSS
FAR SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. NAM/GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN RATHER
DRY EVEN AS FAR SOUTH AS LAWRENCEVILLE...HOWEVER HAVE DECIDED TO
MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SOUTH OF I-70 IN CASE WAVE CURLS A BIT
FURTHER NORTHWARD THAN MODELS CURRENTLY SUGGEST.
AFTER MORNING CLOUD COVER ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
ILLINOIS...SUNNY SKIES WILL RETURN ACROSS THE BOARD BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. WILL BE ANOTHER MILD DAY AS WELL...WITH HIGHS ONCE
AGAIN TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S.
NEXT UPPER WAVE RAPIDLY APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE W/SW EARLY
NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES EXIST AMONG THE 00Z 18
FEB MODELS. NAM TAKES SHORT-WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST THEN DIGS IT SHARPLY SOUTHWARD INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
BY MONDAY. MEANWHILE...THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN ARE ALL LESS
AMPLIFIED WITH THE FEATURE...PUSHING IT QUICKLY EASTWARD INTO THE
PLAINS. EVEN THOUGH RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY OF INDIVIDUAL MODELS IS
STILL POOR...HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE CONSENSUS WITH THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE. AS A RESULT...HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST UNTIL SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT. IF SLOWER NAM PANS
OUT...PRECIP MAY EVEN HOLD OFF UNTIL TUESDAY.
LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
TUESDAY APPEARS TO BE A WET DAY...AS SHORT-WAVE TRACKS THROUGH THE
MIDWEST. BEYOND THAT...COMPLEX FLOW PATTERN LEADS TO A LOW
CONFIDENCE EXTENDED FORECAST. A SERIES OF FAST-MOVING/WEAK
DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED TO SWING THROUGH THE REGION...HOWEVER
TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES WILL BE QUITE DIFFICULT. AT THIS
TIME...MODEL CONSENSUS POINTS TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY AS THE
NEXT MOST FAVORABLE TIME FOR LIGHT PRECIP. TEMPS WILL REMAIN
MILD...BUT COULD BE COOL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH ALL RAIN
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.
BARNES
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1041 AM CST SAT FEB 18 2012
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1040 AM CST SAT FEB 18 2012
FORECAST GENERALLY LOOKS ON TRACK TODAY AND JUST A FEW MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HIGHS AND SKY COVER ELEMENTS TODAY. INCREASING
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS DURING TODAY TO GIVE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER
SE IL THIS AFTERNOON WHILE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAIL OVER MUCH OF
CENTRAL IL. COOLER HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S FROM I-74 NE...MID 40S
CENTRAL SECTIONS OF IL AND UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50F IN SOUTHEAST IL.
NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH AND GUSTS NEAR 20 MPH TO TURN NE LATER
TODAY.
LATE MORNING SURFACE MAP SHOWS 1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE
IA/NE BORDER AND RIDGING INTO MN WAS PROVIDING AMPLE SUNSHINE OVER
CENTRAL IL THIS MORNING. 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE WAS NEAR NIAGRA
FALLS WITH ITS COLD FRONT PRESSING JUST SE OF THE OHIO RIVER INTO
CENTRAL ARKANSAS. A 1006 MB LOW PRESSURE WAS OFF THE SE TEXAS COAST
AND A WARM FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM WAS
SPREADING MID/HIGH CLOUDS OVER SOUTHERN IL WITH THIN VEIL OF
CIRRUS CLOUDS OF SE IL FROM I-70 SE TO LAWRENCEVILLE. ALOFT A 548
DM 500 MB LOW WAS OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA WHILE A DEEP UPPER LEVEL
TROF EXTENDED SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL TEXAS WITH THUNDERSTORMS
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE OVER LA...SOUTHERN MS AND FAR SE TX.
12Z MODELS LIKE THE NAM...SREF AND RUC DRIFT HIGH PRESSURE INTO WI
AND MI THIS EVENING WHILE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SE TX COAST MOVES
INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION AND LOW CLOUDS TO
STAY SE OF CENTRAL IL THOUGH MID/HIGH CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO
INCREASE OVER SE IL DURING THIS AFTERNOON AND PARTS OF CENTRAL IL
SE OF THE IL RIVER THIS EVENING. N/NE WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH AND GUSTS
NEAR 20 MPH TO KEEP HIGHS UP TO 10 DEGREES COOLER TODAY MOSTLY IN
THE LOW TO MID 40S...EXCEPT UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50F IN SE IL. TEMPS
CURRENTLY RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 30S OVER CENTRAL IL AND MID
40S IN FAR SE IL AROUND OLNEY AND LAWRENCEVILLE AND MT CARMEL
AIRPORT.
HUETTL
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 528 AM CST SAT FEB 18 2012
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES NEXT 24HRS. SCT-BKN
HIGH CIRRUS IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO THIS EVENING. THEN A BROKEN MID LEVEL DECK AROUND 15K FT WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING TO AROUND MIDNIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...TIL MORNING. NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL BECOME NORTHERLY FOR MOST OF THE DAY...AND THEN NORTHEAST FOR
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE AROUND 10KTS
DURING THE DAY AND THEN DECREASE TO AROUND 8-9 KTS FOR THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
AUTEN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 214 AM CST SAT FEB 18 2012
COMPLEX SPLIT-FLOW UPPER PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS NORTH
AMERICA...WITH A VIGOROUS WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH
OF THE JET STREAM BRINGING ACTIVE WEATHER TO THE LOWER-MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY AND GULF COAST. MAIN SHORT-TERM QUESTION FOR CENTRAL
ILLINOIS WILL BE HOW FAR NORTH MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL MAKE
IT LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES WILL
PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY TODAY.
NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPS
TO CENTRAL ILLINOIS...HOWEVER INCOMING AIRMASS IS STILL WARMER
THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGH TEMPS WILL DROP BY ABOUT
10 DEGREES FROM YESTERDAY...WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 40S. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS
OF THE KILX CWA...WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES NOTED ALONG
AND SOUTH OF I-70.
POTENT UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WILL TRACK E/NE
ACROSS THE GULF STATES TONIGHT...TAPPING INTO DEEP GULF MOISTURE
AND RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD PRECIP FROM THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY
SOUTHWARD. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TRACK OF UPPER/SURFACE
SYSTEMS...WITH SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES AMONG THEIR QPF FIELDS. WITH
DRY N/NE FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MIDWEST...THINK THERE WILL BE
A SHARP NORTHERN EDGE TO THE PRECIP SHIELD...MOST LIKELY ACROSS
FAR SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. NAM/GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN RATHER
DRY EVEN AS FAR SOUTH AS LAWRENCEVILLE...HOWEVER HAVE DECIDED TO
MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SOUTH OF I-70 IN CASE WAVE CURLS A BIT
FURTHER NORTHWARD THAN MODELS CURRENTLY SUGGEST.
AFTER MORNING CLOUD COVER ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
ILLINOIS...SUNNY SKIES WILL RETURN ACROSS THE BOARD BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. WILL BE ANOTHER MILD DAY AS WELL...WITH HIGHS ONCE
AGAIN TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S.
NEXT UPPER WAVE RAPIDLY APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE W/SW EARLY
NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES EXIST AMONG THE 00Z 18
FEB MODELS. NAM TAKES SHORT-WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST THEN DIGS IT SHARPLY SOUTHWARD INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
BY MONDAY. MEANWHILE...THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN ARE ALL LESS
AMPLIFIED WITH THE FEATURE...PUSHING IT QUICKLY EASTWARD INTO THE
PLAINS. EVEN THOUGH RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY OF INDIVIDUAL MODELS IS
STILL POOR...HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE CONSENSUS WITH THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE. AS A RESULT...HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST UNTIL SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT. IF SLOWER NAM PANS
OUT...PRECIP MAY EVEN HOLD OFF UNTIL TUESDAY.
LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
TUESDAY APPEARS TO BE A WET DAY...AS SHORT-WAVE TRACKS THROUGH THE
MIDWEST. BEYOND THAT...COMPLEX FLOW PATTERN LEADS TO A LOW
CONFIDENCE EXTENDED FORECAST. A SERIES OF FAST-MOVING/WEAK
DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED TO SWING THROUGH THE REGION...HOWEVER
TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES WILL BE QUITE DIFFICULT. AT THIS
TIME...MODEL CONSENSUS POINTS TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY AS THE
NEXT MOST FAVORABLE TIME FOR LIGHT PRECIP. TEMPS WILL REMAIN
MILD...BUT COULD BE COOL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH ALL RAIN
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.
BARNES
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
1223 AM EST SAT FEB 18 2012
.AVIATION... / 06Z TAFS /
WEAK CDFNT...ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING INTO
CENTRAL MI...WILL TRANSLATE THROUGH THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS
MORNING ALLOWING WINDS TO VEER MORE WESTERLY WITH TIME. LOW LVL
MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...SO EXPECT NOTHING
MORE THAN A FEW SPRINKLES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AT FWA.
DEEPENING SFC LOW TRACKING INTO SERN ONTARIO THIS MORNING WILL
FORCE A SECONDARY SFC TROUGH THROUGH THE FA BTW 13-15Z THIS
MORNING. WINDS WILL VEER MORE NORTHERLY IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT
WITH LAKE CLOUDS DEVELOPING IN RESPONSE TO 850 DELTA T/S
INCREASING TO NEAR 13C. LATEST BUFR SOUNDINGS GENERALLY SUPPORT
LOW END VFR CEILINGS BTW 3-4 KFT. A FEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW
FLURRIES/SHOWERS AT SBN SHOULDN`T HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON VIS.
FURTHER VEERING...DRYING...AND INCREASING LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE
WILL SUPPORT SCATTERING OF ANY LAKE CLOUDS BY LATE AFTERNOON OR
EVENING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 705 PM EST FRI FEB 17 2012/
SHORT TERM...
AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF APPROACHING CLIPPER SYSTEM WAS
GENERATING AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW JUST TO OUR NORTH THIS AFTERNOON.
REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC COUPLED WITH HIGH RES GUIDANCE SUGGEST THIS
WILL REMAIN JUST NORTH OF FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...AS SURFACE LOW DROPS SOUTH AND EAST LIGHT PCPN WILL AGAIN
BE POSSIBLE AND HRRR SHOWS THIS AFTER ABOUT 01Z. WILL MAINTAIN A LOW
CHANCE POP FOR THIS LIGHT PRECIPITATION POSSIBILITY ACROSS THE FAR
NORTH AS MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM REMAINS LIMITED. AS LOW
PASSES AND COLD AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN LOW
AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE WITH AID OF LAKE MICHIGAN. DELTA T VALUES
INCREASE TO LOWER TEENS WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO HELP IN LAKE CLOUD
GENERATION AND SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTH. ANY ACCUMS
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND WILL DEPEND ON DEPTH OF MOISTURE COLUMN.
HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES IN ON SATURDAY WITH CLEARING SKIES IN
AFTERNOON AS FLOW VEERS. INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS POSSIBLE SATURDAY
NIGHT AS SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS DEEPENS AND SPREADS HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE NORTH. PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF
FORECAST AREA.
LONG TERM...
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... PLEASANT WEATHER PATTERN TO
BEGIN THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION ON SUNDAY THEN DRIFTING SE INTO OH VALLEY ON
MONDAY. AFTER SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL SEE A WARMUP
TO BEGIN NEXT WEEK AS MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS EASTWARD INTO THE
AREA IN RESPONSE TO STRONG JET DYNAMICS COMING ONSHORE IN PACIFIC
NW WHICH WILL REINFORCE TROUGH OVER FOUR CORNERS. MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS OFFERING VARIED SOLNS IN HANDLING ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF
TROUGH...BUT ALL INDICATIONS POINT TO PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. ONE COMMON THEME AND AN AREA OF
HIGHER CONFIDENCE AMONG THE MODELS IS THE PHASING OF NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAMS AND SUBSEQUENT BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH CARVED OUT
FROM THE PLAINS TO GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY-FRIDAY TIMEFRAME.
WHILE TIMING AND DETAILS OF RESULTING SENSIBLE WEATHER REMAIN
UNCERTAIN...PATTERN SUGGESTS KEEPING POPS IN FCST TUE-THU AND
ABSENCE OF ANY SIGNS OF SFC RIDGING BUILDING IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM
FAVORS CONTINUED CYCLONIC FLOW AND SMALL CHANCE POPS FRI AS WELL.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 AM EST SUNDAY
FOR LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...LASHLEY
LONG TERM...LOGSDON
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
1126 PM CST FRI FEB 17 2012
...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
LATEST WV IMAGERY WITH H500 RUC ANALYSIS SHOWED CONFLUENT UPPER
LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY ONCE AGAIN...WITH
ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE MT/ND BORDER. A STRIP OF
POSITIVE VORTICITY ORIENTED EAST/WEST FROM CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
THROUGH CENTRAL WISCONSIN IS A RESULT OF SPEED SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH
THE ZONAL FLOW TO THE SOUTH...AND NORTHERLY FLOW TO THE NORTH. THIS
FEATURE WILL REMAIN FAIRLY TRANSIENT...SO WITH LITTLE PVA...IT
SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON THE SURFACE. IN ADDITION...SUBSIDENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEFT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET AND
THE ANTICYCLONIC CURVATURE OF THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL CAUSE A
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO CENTRAL IOWA AS SHOWN IN THE 6HR
SURFACE ISALLOBARIC MAP.
THIS SURFACE HIGH WILL REDUCE WINDS OVERNIGHT...WHICH COULD ALLOW
TEMPS TO FALL OFF. HOWEVER...CELLULAR STRATUS DECK SPREADING ACROSS
ALL OF MINNESOTA COULD LIMIT THE RADIATIONAL COOLING IF IT HOLDS
TOGETHER AFTER SUNSET AND MOVES INTO NORTHERN IOWA. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND TIME/HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS SHOW THIN LAYER OF HIGH RH
IN THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER. ANTICIPATING THIS TO
TAKE SHAPE AS MORE OF A SCATTERED VS BROKEN DECK OF CLOUDS...SO HAVE
KEPT LOW TEMPS IN THE TEENS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CWA...WITH
WARMER TEMPS IN THE SOUTHEAST.
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL LONG TERM FORECAST WITH TIMING AND
PLACEMENT DETAILS OF ATMOSPHERIC FEATURES REMAINING CONSISTENT THE
PAST FEW DAYS. TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL BE NEAR TO A LITTLE
ABOVE SEASONAL VALUES THOUGH SHOULD BE ABOVE GUIDANCE VALUES. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WELL ADVERTISED UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM IS STILL ON TRACK TO IMPACT THE STATE MONDAY THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY. PRECIPITATION TYPE DUE TO SOME UNCERTAINTY OF LOW
LEVEL TEMPERATURE PROFILE REMAINS THE PRIMARY CHALLENGE WITH THE
SYSTEM. THE PAST SEVERAL EVENTS IN ADDITION TO LOW LEVEL FORECAST
PROFILES SUGGEST THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAINLY RAIN FOR THE
SOUTHERN HALF TO TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE PRECIPITATION
TYPE BECOMES MUCH MORE PROBLEMATIC OVER NORTHERN IOWA. VERY WELL
COULD HAVE A TRANSITION ZONE TO ALL SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN FEW TIER
OF COUNTIES AND COULD RESULT IN MODERATE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS.
WILL ADD THE POTENTIAL TO THE HWO.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE STILL ON TRACK MID NEXT WEEK. PROFILES ARE A BIT
COLDER WITH THIS SYSTEM AND COULD RESULT IN A MORE WIDESPREAD LIGHT
SNOW EVENT. LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES AROUND TO END THE FORECAST
PERIOD HOWEVER ANYTHING THAT WOULD OCCUR WOULD BE QUITE LIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...18/06Z
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE ENTIRE FORECAST
PERIOD AS SURFACE RIDGING SLIDES INTO IOWA. THE SUBSIDENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH WILL KEEP THE AIRMASS RELATIVELY DRY
PRECLUDING MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUDINESS. NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AND BECOME SOUTHEAST LATE IN THE PERIOD AS
THE RIDGING SLIDES TO THE EAST.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BEITLICH
LONG TERM...DONAVON
AVIATION...COGIL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
1148 AM CST SAT FEB 18 2012
...UPDATE TO AVIATION...
.DISCUSSION...
SHORT RANGE FORECAST (TODAY AND SUNDAY)...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 08Z RUC UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT
THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH WHICH IS TRAVERSING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS IS LOCATED ROUGHLY OVER WEST CENTRAL TEXAS AND SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF IN A EASTERLY DIRECTION ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS.
THIS TROUGH HAS BROUGHT QUITE A BIT OF PRECIPITATION TO PORTIONS OF
EASTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA...BUT THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE TROUGH
HAS LEFT THE FORECAST AREA MOSTLY DRY. RADAR TRENDS HAVE INDICATED
THAT THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE DEFORMATION BAND ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TROUGH HAS BROUGHT SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO AREAS
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70...BUT PRECIPITATION HAS STEADILY DWINDLED
OVERNIGHT. 11 TO 3.8 MICRON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE STRATUS
SHIELD ENDS RIGHT ALONG INTERSTATE 70...MEANING AREAS NORTH OF I 70
HAVE CLEAR SKIES AND SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR. AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
70 WILL SEE DWINDLING CLOUD COVER AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES EASTWARD.
OVERNIGHT A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED INTO EASTERN
NEBRASKA...WHICH HAS ALLOWED A SURFACE COLD FRONT TO DRAPE ITSELF
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS...LIGHT COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES DOWN FOR SATURDAY...AS WELL AS FAIRLY SHALLOW MIXING TO
AROUND 900 MB. SHOULD THE CLOUDS ERODE QUICKER THAN EXPECTED
TEMPERATURES MAY GET A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN THE GOING FORECAST
OF MID 40S FOR SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY THE SURFACE RIDGE CLEARS OFF TO
THE EAST...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW TO COMMENCE ON
SUNDAY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY TO BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER
THAN SATURDAY AS THE COLDER AIR MASS GETS ERADICATED BY THE STIFF
SOUTHERLY WINDS.
MID RANGE AND EXTENDED FORECAST (MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
THE AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP THROUGH THE WEEKEND
IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING SURFACE TROUGH WHICH WILL COME OFF THE
HIGH PLAINS AND GLIDE E-NE ACROSS NEBRASKA. THIS SURFACE TROUGH IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A POTENT TROUGH WHICH IS PROGGED BY MID RANGE MODELS
TO DIG SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. WITH
AT LEAST 24 TO 36 HOURS OF STEADY WARM/MOIST AIR ADVECTION
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL BE QUITE A BIT WARMER THAN SEASONAL
NORMALS AS MID TO UPPER 50 DEGREE TEMPERATURES COULD BE IN STORE FOR
MONDAY. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS UPPER 50S TO POSSIBLY EVEN LOWER 60S FOR
MONDAY...BUT WILL ERR ON THE LOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE GIVEN THE
POSSIBILITY FOR LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND EVEN SOME PRECIP WORKING
INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY AS THE WARM/MOIST AIR IS ISENTROPICALLY
LIFTED. EXPECT PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE EARLY WEEK SYSTEM TO
BEGIN EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY AS THE MAIN
WAVE PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. GEM/GFS/ECMWF (NAM WAS DISREGARDED
DUE TO INITIALIZATION ERRORS) PROG THE SYSTEM TO BE PRETTY
PROGRESSIVE SO EXPECT THE PRECIP TO GENERALLY COME TO AN END BY
LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. DUE TO A LACK OF
DEEP MOISTURE AND THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE TROUGH THE QPF FOR
THIS EVENT SHOULD BE PRETTY MEAGER...ON THE ORDER OF AROUND A
TENTH TO POSSIBLY A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN. THERMAL PROFILES
SUGGEST THAT A MAJORITY OF THE EVENT WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN
FOR ALL AREAS...BUT WITH SOME COOLER AIR WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE
AREA ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH THERE COULD BE A BRIEF WINDOW
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WHERE A LIGHT MIXTURE OF RAIN/SNOW COULD
FALL...BUT THIS SCENARIO WOULD BE MORE LIKELY IN NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS.
THE REST OF THE WEEK LOOKS TO REMAIN MILD ACROSS NORTHEAST KANSAS
ONCE THE MONDAY TROUGH EXITS THE AREA. LONG RANGE MODELS
HINT AT A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. ONE OR TWO OF THESE WEAK TROUGHS COULD
BRING A POTENTIAL FOR INCREASING CLOUDS AND MAYBE EVEN SOME VERY
LIGHT PRECIP. WILL TRY TO NAIL DOWN SPECIFICS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD
AS IT APPROACHES.
JL
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS REMAIN TO BE EXPECTED. ONLY THING TO WATCH IS
VISIBILITIES IN THE SURFACE RIDGE AND CLEARER SKIES AROUND 11Z
TONIGHT...BUT BR APPEARS TO BE QUITE A LOW PROBABILITY AT THIS
POINT. A FEW MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE
EVENING. NORTHEAST WINDS ON TRACK TO BE SOUTHEAST TOWARD 18Z
SUNDAY...BUT SPEEDS STILL LIGHT.
65
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
524 AM CST SAT FEB 18 2012
...UPDATE TO AVIATION...
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAY HAVE PERIODS OF
CIGS BUT EXPECT TO BE AOA 4000FT AGL. WINDS REMAIN NE UNTIL UPPER
TROF PASSES LATE IN THE TAF CYCLE AND SKIES CLEAR AS WINDS BECOME
SOUTHERLY. NO ADDED GROUP AT THIS TIME. 67
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 343 AM CST SAT FEB 18 2012/
SHORT RANGE FORECAST (TODAY AND SUNDAY)...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 08Z RUC UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT
THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH WHICH IS TRAVERSING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS IS LOCATED ROUGHLY OVER WEST CENTRAL TEXAS AND SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF IN A EASTERLY DIRECTION ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS.
THIS TROUGH HAS BROUGHT QUITE A BIT OF PRECIPITATION TO PORTIONS OF
EASTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA...BUT THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE TROUGH
HAS LEFT THE FORECAST AREA MOSTLY DRY. RADAR TRENDS HAVE INDICATED
THAT THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE DEFORMATION BAND ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TROUGH HAS BROUGHT SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO AREAS
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70...BUT PRECIPITATION HAS STEADILY DWINDLED
OVERNIGHT. 11 TO 3.8 MICRON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE STRATUS
SHIELD ENDS RIGHT ALONG INTERSTATE 70...MEANING AREAS NORTH OF I 70
HAVE CLEAR SKIES AND SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR. AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
70 WILL SEE DWINDLING CLOUD COVER AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES EASTWARD.
OVERNIGHT A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED INTO EASTERN
NEBRASKA...WHICH HAS ALLOWED A SURFACE COLD FRONT TO DRAPE ITSELF
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS...LIGHT COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES DOWN FOR SATURDAY...AS WELL AS FAIRLY SHALLOW MIXING TO
AROUND 900 MB. SHOULD THE CLOUDS ERODE QUICKER THAN EXPECTED
TEMPERATURES MAY GET A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN THE GOING FORECAST
OF MID 40S FOR SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY THE SURFACE RIDGE CLEARS OFF TO
THE EAST...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW TO COMMENCE ON
SUNDAY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY TO BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER
THAN SATURDAY AS THE COLDER AIR MASS GETS ERADICATED BY THE STIFF
SOUTHERLY WINDS.
MID RANGE AND EXTENDED FORECAST (MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
THE AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP THROUGH THE WEEKEND
IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING SURFACE TROUGH WHICH WILL COME OFF THE
HIGH PLAINS AND GLIDE E-NE ACROSS NEBRASKA. THIS SURFACE TROUGH IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A POTENT TROUGH WHICH IS PROGGED BY MID RANGE MODELS
TO DIG SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. WITH
AT LEAST 24 TO 36 HOURS OF STEADY WARM/MOIST AIR ADVECTION
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL BE QUITE A BIT WARMER THAN SEASONAL
NORMALS AS MID TO UPPER 50 DEGREE TEMPERATURES COULD BE IN STORE FOR
MONDAY. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS UPPER 50S TO POSSIBLY EVEN LOWER 60S FOR
MONDAY...BUT WILL ERR ON THE LOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE GIVEN THE
POSSIBILITY FOR LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND EVEN SOME PRECIP WORKING
INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY AS THE WARM/MOIST AIR IS ISENTROPICALLY
LIFTED. EXPECT PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE EARLY WEEK SYSTEM TO
BEGIN EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY AS THE MAIN
WAVE PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. GEM/GFS/ECMWF (NAM WAS DISREGARDED
DUE TO INITIALIZATION ERRORS) PROG THE SYSTEM TO BE PRETTY
PROGRESSIVE SO EXPECT THE PRECIP TO GENERALLY COME TO AN END BY
LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. DUE TO A LACK OF
DEEP MOISTURE AND THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE TROUGH THE QPF FOR
THIS EVENT SHOULD BE PRETTY MEAGER...ON THE ORDER OF AROUND A
TENTH TO POSSIBLY A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN. THERMAL PROFILES
SUGGEST THAT A MAJORITY OF THE EVENT WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN
FOR ALL AREAS...BUT WITH SOME COOLER AIR WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE
AREA ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH THERE COULD BE A BRIEF WINDOW
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WHERE A LIGHT MIXTURE OF RAIN/SNOW COULD
FALL...BUT THIS SCENARIO WOULD BE MORE LIKELY IN NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS.
THE REST OF THE WEEK LOOKS TO REMAIN MILD ACROSS NORTHEAST KANSAS
ONCE THE MONDAY TROUGH EXITS THE AREA. LONG RANGE MODELS
HINT AT A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. ONE OR TWO OF THESE WEAK TROUGHS COULD
BRING A POTENTIAL FOR INCREASING CLOUDS AND MAYBE EVEN SOME VERY
LIGHT PRECIP. WILL TRY TO NAIL DOWN SPECIFICS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD
AS IT APPROACHES.
JL
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
343 AM CST SAT FEB 18 2012
.DISCUSSION...
SHORT RANGE FORECAST (TODAY AND SUNDAY)...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 08Z RUC UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT
THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH WHICH IS TRAVERSING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS IS LOCATED ROUGHLY OVER WEST CENTRAL TEXAS AND SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF IN A EASTERLY DIRECTION ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS.
THIS TROUGH HAS BROUGHT QUITE A BIT OF PRECIPITATION TO PORTIONS OF
EASTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA...BUT THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE TROUGH
HAS LEFT THE FORECAST AREA MOSTLY DRY. RADAR TRENDS HAVE INDICATED
THAT THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE DEFORMATION BAND ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TROUGH HAS BROUGHT SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO AREAS
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70...BUT PRECIPITATION HAS STEADILY DWINDLED
OVERNIGHT. 11 TO 3.8 MICRON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE STRATUS
SHIELD ENDS RIGHT ALONG INTERSTATE 70...MEANING AREAS NORTH OF I 70
HAVE CLEAR SKIES AND SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR. AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
70 WILL SEE DWINDLING CLOUD COVER AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES EASTWARD.
OVERNIGHT A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED INTO EASTERN
NEBRASKA...WHICH HAS ALLOWED A SURFACE COLD FRONT TO DRAPE ITSELF
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS...LIGHT COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES DOWN FOR SATURDAY...AS WELL AS FAIRLY SHALLOW MIXING TO
AROUND 900 MB. SHOULD THE CLOUDS ERODE QUICKER THAN EXPECTED
TEMPERATURES MAY GET A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN THE GOING FORECAST
OF MID 40S FOR SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY THE SURFACE RIDGE CLEARS OFF TO
THE EAST...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW TO COMMENCE ON
SUNDAY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY TO BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER
THAN SATURDAY AS THE COLDER AIR MASS GETS ERADICATED BY THE STIFF
SOUTHERLY WINDS.
MID RANGE AND EXTENDED FORECAST (MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
THE AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP THROUGH THE WEEKEND
IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING SURFACE TROUGH WHICH WILL COME OFF THE
HIGH PLAINS AND GLIDE E-NE ACROSS NEBRASKA. THIS SURFACE TROUGH IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A POTENT TROUGH WHICH IS PROGGED BY MID RANGE MODELS
TO DIG SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. WITH
AT LEAST 24 TO 36 HOURS OF STEADY WARM/MOIST AIR ADVECTION
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL BE QUITE A BIT WARMER THAN SEASONAL
NORMALS AS MID TO UPPER 50 DEGREE TEMPERATURES COULD BE IN STORE FOR
MONDAY. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS UPPER 50S TO POSSIBLY EVEN LOWER 60S FOR
MONDAY...BUT WILL ERR ON THE LOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE GIVEN THE
POSSIBILITY FOR LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND EVEN SOME PRECIP WORKING
INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY AS THE WARM/MOIST AIR IS ISENTROPICALLY
LIFTED. EXPECT PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE EARLY WEEK SYSTEM TO
BEGIN EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY AS THE MAIN
WAVE PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. GEM/GFS/ECMWF (NAM WAS DISREGARDED
DUE TO INITIALIZATION ERRORS) PROG THE SYSTEM TO BE PRETTY
PROGRESSIVE SO EXPECT THE PRECIP TO GENERALLY COME TO AN END BY
LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. DUE TO A LACK OF
DEEP MOISTURE AND THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE TROUGH THE QPF FOR
THIS EVENT SHOULD BE PRETTY MEAGER...ON THE ORDER OF AROUND A
TENTH TO POSSIBLY A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN. THERMAL PROFILES
SUGGEST THAT A MAJORITY OF THE EVENT WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN
FOR ALL AREAS...BUT WITH SOME COOLER AIR WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE
AREA ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH THERE COULD BE A BRIEF WINDOW
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WHERE A LIGHT MIXTURE OF RAIN/SNOW COULD
FALL...BUT THIS SCENARIO WOULD BE MORE LIKELY IN NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS.
THE REST OF THE WEEK LOOKS TO REMAIN MILD ACROSS NORTHEAST KANSAS
ONCE THE MONDAY TROUGH EXITS THE AREA. LONG RANGE MODELS
HINT AT A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. ONE OR TWO OF THESE WEAK TROUGHS COULD
BRING A POTENTIAL FOR INCREASING CLOUDS AND MAYBE EVEN SOME VERY
LIGHT PRECIP. WILL TRY TO NAIL DOWN SPECIFICS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD
AS IT APPROACHES.
JL
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. COLD FRONT HAS
USHERED IN NORTHERLY WINDS. MOST OF THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION
TONIGHT WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF TAF SITES. IMPROVING CEILINGS AND
NORTHEAST WINDS UNDER 12KTS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.
BLAIR
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
100 AM EST SAT FEB 18 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. A WEAK FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES SUNDAY WILL BRING SOME SNOW
TO THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
SOME TWEAKS TO SKY AND TEMPERATURES TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS
OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.
THE LATEST RUC MID-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
IN A ZONAL FLOW WITH A DRY SWATH OF AIR ADVECTING EAST OF THE AREA.
AT THE SURFACE, MSAS/OBS ANALYSIS INDICATE A 1022MB HIGH CENTERED
ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO AND EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD INTO WESTERN PA.
FURTHER UPSTREAM, A WEAK LOW IS CENTERED OVER LAKE MICHIGAN WITH
A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST OF THIS FEATURE INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION
BEING THE MID-LEVEL DECK ADVECTING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST AHEAD OF THE LOW.
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA THROUGH DAWN, WITH CLOUD COVERAGE
INCREASING THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR CALM
WINDS EARLY ON WILL BE OPTIMAL FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. THUS,
UNDERCUT LAMP GUIDANCE A FEW DEGREES WITH LOWS RANGING FROM LOWER
20S ACROSS THE EASTERN RIDGES TO THE MID 20S ALONG THE I-80
CORRIDOR TO THE UPPER 20S ELSEWHERE.
SATURDAY...A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL CROSS LAKE ERIE SATURDAY
AND SPREAD CLOUDS INTO THE AREA FROM W TO E. MUCH LIKE THE MID
CLOUDS TONIGHT...ANY PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CYCLONE SHALL STAY
N OF THE TURNPIKE. LOWERED POPS TO THE SCHC TO CHC CATEGORY AS MOST
OF THE FORCING SKIRTS ALONG THE PA/NY BORDER. TEMPERATURES ARE
CLOSE TO MOSGUIDE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
12Z MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO TRACK A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE
LOWER MS VALLEY TO THE CAROLINA COAST BY SUNDAY EVENING. GFS STILL
BRINGS HEAVIER SNOW FURTHER NORTH AND HAS FASTER TIMING THAN
ECMWF BUT MODELS ARE IS CLOSER AGREEMENT THAN IN PREVIOUS RUNS.
HAVE ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR TUCKER COUNTY WV FOR SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY EVENING FOR POTENTIAL SNOW ACCUMULATION AROUND 6
INCHES. IS STILL TOO EARLY FOR ADVISORIES...BUT PRESTON AND
GARRETT WOULD LIKELY REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA BASED ON CURRENT
THINKING. BELIEVE THAT NORTHERN EXTENT OF SNOW WILL CUT OFF
QUICKLY...WITH LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION NORTH OF THE PA/WV LINE.
SNOW WILL EXIT BY 06Z MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER
AIR QUICKLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. NORTH TO NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL
FLOW SHOULD NOT BE CONDUCIVE FOR ANY SCATTERED WRAP-AROUND
PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. EXPECT SUNNY CONDITIONS
FOR WASHINGTONS BIRTHDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE MID 30S
NORTH AND ALONG THE RIDGES TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE EAST OFF THE EAST COAST BY LATE TUESDAY.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS THEN SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH A BROAD TROUGH SETTING UP
OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY BY THURSDAY. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED
TO SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
AS INDIVIDUAL WAVES ROTATE THROUGH THIS SYSTEM...TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION WILL BE DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE AT THIS POINT. AFTER A
DRY START ON TUESDAY UNDER DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE...PLAN TO
FORECAST CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND INTO
SATURDAY. WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY
MAY BRING A FEW SNOW FLURRIES TO THE NORTHERN PORTS.
OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
IFR WEATHER POSSIBLE SUN ONTO SUN NIGHT ACROSS NRN WV AND WRN MD WITH
THE PASSING OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS WRN VA. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER
WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS PREDICTED.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR WVZ041.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
629 PM EST SUN FEB 19 2012
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM EST SUN FEB 19 2012
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW WNW FLOW ALF OVER
THE UPR LKS BTWN TROF IN QUEBEC AND UPR RDG MOVING E THRU THE
PLAINS. SFC HI PRES RDG IS ORIENTED FM LOWER MI INTO SRN WI...
BRINGING QUIET DAY TO THE CWA. EXCEPT FOR LINGERING SC E OF ERY
TOWARD BACK EDGE OF SLOWLY DEPARTING H925 THERMAL TROF/A BIT MORE
LLVL MSTR SHOWN ON THE 12Z APX RAOB...SKIES ARE GENERALLY SUNNY OVER
THE CWA AS 12Z GRB/MPX/INL RAOBS DEPICT A DRY AIRMASS WITH PWAT 0.15
TO 0.20 INCH. THERE IS A SHRTWV DROPPING ESEWD OVER THE UPR LKS...
BUT ONLY SOME HI CLDS MARK THE PRESENCE OF THIS FEATURE WITH DRY LO/
MID LVLS PRESENT. ALTHOUGH MIN TEMPS THIS MRNG FELL BLO ZERO AT A
NUMBER OF INTERIOR LOCATIONS...THE BRIGHT SUNSHINE HAS HELPED THE
MERCURY RECOVER TO WELL ABV NORMAL LEVELS THIS AFTN. FARTHER TO THE
W...THERE IS A TROF IN THE ROCKIES. QUITE A BIT OF HI CLDS ARE
STREAMING NEWD THRU THE PLAINS TOWARD MN IN THE SW FLOW ALF AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE TEMPS WITH HI PRES RDG
EXPECTED TO DOMINATE.
TNGT...UPR RDG IS FCST TO BUILD OVHD TNGT WITH DRY AIRMASS STILL
DOMINATING. ANY LINGERING LO CLDS OVER THE FAR ERN CWA SHOULD BE
GONE BY FCST ISSUANCE WITH WLY FLOW/WARMING AND DRYING AT H925.
EXPECT THE LOWEST MIN TEMPS AOB THE LO END OF GUIDANCE OVER THE
INTERIOR E AND SCNTRL UNDER WEAKER PRES GRADIENT/LIGHTER SW FLOW
ARND HI PRES CENTERED OVER LOWER MI. ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG IN THESE
AREAS OVER THE E WHERE SFC DEWPTS REMAIN FAIRLY HI AOA 20. A BIT
STRONGER SW FLOW OVER THE NW HALF AND THE ARRIVAL OF SOME HI CLDS
AHEAD OF THE SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE ROCKIES TROF WL LIMIT THE DIURNAL
FALL OF TEMP IN THAT AREA A BIT.
MON...EXPECT INCRSG SLY FLOW OVER UPR MI BTWN DEPARTING UPR RDG/SFC
HI TO THE E AND APRCHG UPR TROF THRU THE PLAINS IN PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN ALF. ALTHOUGH THERE WL BE QUITE A BIT OF HI CLD UNDER THE SW
FLOW ALF...THE LO/MID LVLS WL REMAIN QUITE DRY. H85 TEMPS ARE FCST
TO RISE CLOSE TO 0C OVER THE W BY LATE IN THE DAY...SO EXPECT A
HEALTHY DIURNAL TEMP RECOVERY DESPITE THE HI CLD COVER. TEMPS ARE
LIKELY TO BE HIEST IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS NEAR LK SUP FM IWD-COPPER
HARBOR...BARAGA AND MQT. TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO REACH 40 OR BETTER IN
THESE LOCATIONS. AREAS NEAR THE ICE ON THE BAY OF GREEN BAY WL BE
COOLEST.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM EST SUN FEB 19 2012
SPLIT FLOW TO START THE PERIOD WITH STRONGER JET STREAM REMAINING IN
THE SOUTHERN BRANCH. MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
PLACEMENT OF THE TWO SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OVR CENTRAL CONUS INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA ON MONDAY EVENING. UPR LEVEL WAVES STILL LOOK TO
REMAIN SEPARATE INTO TUESDAY BUT H85 LOWS DO TRY TO MERGE TOGETHER
OVR NW ONTARIO AND LK SUPERIOR REGION BY TUESDAY AFTN. RESULT IS A
SW FLOW OF INCREASING MOISTURE INTO UPR MI LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. MORE ABUNDANT MOISTURE/HIGHER PWATS STAY TIED TO SOUTHERN
STREAM UPR SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY INTO CNTRL
GREAT LAKES. EXPECT SWATH OF SNOW FORCED BY DIVERGENCE FM UPR JET
AND MID LEVEL FRONTOGENEIS TO LIFT INTO WESTERN UPR MI AFTER
MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING ON TUESDAY. SNOW SHOULD
FADE AWAY THROUGH THE DAY WHILE MOVING EAST AS MAIN MOISTURE STREAMS
BEGIN TO SPLIT AROUND UPR MI. BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW
WOULD BE IN THE FAR WESTERN CWA AROUND KIWD EARLY ON TUESDAY. DID
OPT FOR MENTION OF RAIN ALONG IMMEDIATE LK MICHIGAN SHORE LATER ON
TUESDAY WITH ONSHORE WINDS.
KIND OF A TRICKY FCST BEYOND TUESDAY AT THIS POINT...ESPECIALLY
THROUGH THURSDAY. MAIN ITEM CASTING UNCERTAINTY IS GENERAL TROUGHING
STAYING PUT FM SCNTRL CANADA INTO UPR LAKES. INITALLY ON TUESDAY
NIGHT...PRIMARY FOCUS FOR WIDESPREAD/STEADY PCPN SHOULD BE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST OF UPR MI OVER ONTARIO/QUEBEC IN VCNTY OF SFC-H85 LOW.
H85-H7 MOISTURE DOES LINGER THOUGH...ESPECIALLY OVR LK SUPERIOR.
MOISTURE COMBINED WITH WESTERLY FLOW AND H85 TEMPS DOWN TO AROUND
-10C COULD LEAD TO LGT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS KEWEENAW. MINIMAL CHANGE
INTO WEDNESDAY...AS WEST-NORTHWEST LOW-LEVEL WINDS PERSIST OVER THE
AREA AS SFC LOW LIFTS INTO QUEBEC. UPR LAKES IS WITHIN BASE OF LARGER
TROUGH...SO THERE COULD BE SOME SHORTWAVES SLIDING BY IN THE FLOW
THAT ARE NOT DEPICTED IN THE MODELS RIGHT NOW. OVERALL...SEEMS LIKE
SOME SMALL CHANCE POPS ARE JUSTIFIED...BUT NOTHING MORE AT THIS
POINT.
FOR THE EXTENDED...YESTERDAY IT LOOKED LIKE ONCE SFC-H85 LOWS WOULD
TRACK INTO QUEBEC IT WOULD USHER IN NW FLOW LK EFFECT BY THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. PATTERN LOOKING NOT AS CLEAR CUT NOW. MODELS...
ESPECIALLY LATEST VERSIONS OF GFS AND CANADIAN...POINT TO STRONGER
COMPACT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RIDING SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE TROUGH FM
NORTHERN ROCKIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND INTO UPR GREAT LAKES THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. EARLIER THE
GFS WAS FARTHEST NORTH WITH THE LOW/QPF THAN OTHER MODELS...BUT
LATEST CANADIAN NOW TAKES THAT TITLE. ECMWF IS FARTHER SOUTH AND
MORE SHEARED OUT WITH THE DISTURBANCE. BLEND OF MODELS AND THE GFS
ENSEMBLE WOULD SUGGEST FAR SOUTH CWA SEES THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW
LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. DETAILS ARE FAR FM SET THOUGH.
GIVEN UNCERTAINTY WILL STEER AWAY FM LK EFFECT POP IDEA FOR THURSDAY
AND OPEN UP MOST OF CWA FOR LOW CHANCE POPS. MOST MODELS INDICATE
LOW-LEVEL WINDS OVR NOTHERN CWA WOULD BE FM THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT WITH AT LEAST SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE.
INSTABILITY WOULD BE MARGINAL WITH DELTA T/S ONLY UP TO 13C. IF THE
LOW PRESSURE DOES TRACK FARTHER NORTH...THEN THERE WOULD BE MORE
POTENTIAL OF LAKE ENHANCEMENT.
EVENTUALLY...EXPECT NW FLOW LK EFFECT TO DEVELOP OVR THE AREA IN
WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND ON INTO
SATURDAY AS WELL. H85-H7 DEEPER MOISTURE ALONG WITH SUFFICIENT
OVER-WATER INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT SOME MODERATE ACCUMS IN THE
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY TIME FRAME. COLDEST DAYS OVR THE CWA SHOULD
BE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS STAYING IN THE TEENS FOR SOME OF
THE AREA. SUFFICIENTLY COLD AIR /H85 TEMPS BLO -15C/ PERSISTS INTO
SATURDAY THOUGH DECREASING SUB H85 MOISTURE AND LOWERING INVERSIONS
WITH ARRIVAL OF SFC-H85 RIDGE SHOULD BEGIN TO PUT DENT IN THE LK
EFFECT. UNCERTAINTY BACK INTO FCST BY SUNDAY AS GFS AND PREVIOUS
ECMWF WERE OUT OF PHASE WITH EACH OTHER. LATEST ECMWF IS MORE IN
LINE WITH GFS IDEA THOUGH SUGGESTING SYSTEM SNOW COULD RETURN TO UPR
LAKES LATE NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 628 PM EST SUN FEB 19 2012
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THIS
FCST PERIOD WITH DRY HIGH PRES DOMINATING. A STRONGER S WIND WILL
DEVELOP MON UNDER SHARPENING PRES GRADIENT BTWN DEPARTING HIGH PRES
AND LOW PRES APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 347 PM EST SUN FEB 19 2012
WITH AN UNSEASONABLY WEAK PRES GRADIENT FORECAST INTO TUE...EXPECT
WINDS NO HIER THAN 25 KTS. A STRONGER W WIND TO 30 KTS IS POSSIBLE
TUE NIGHT AND WED ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF LO PRES CROSSING ONTARIO.
THERE MAY BE SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS OVER PORTIONS OF NCENTRAL AND
EASTERN LK SUP. MAINLY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 30 KTS
EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEK AS COLDER AIR RETURNS TO THE REGION.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KC/JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
346 PM EST SAT FEB 18 2012
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM EST SAT FEB 18 2012
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW NW FLOW ALF OVER
THE UPR GRT LKS BTWN TROF CENTERED OVER QUEBEC AND A RDG ACRS WCNTRL
CAN. SHRTWV EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW IS OVER LOWER MI AND DIGGING
SEWD...LEAVING THE CWA UNDER VIGOROUS DNVA/UPR CNVGC/00Z-12Z H3
RISES AOA 100M IN ITS WAKE. ASSOCIATED SFC HI PRE RDG EXTENDS FM NW
ONTARIO INTO MN. DESPITE THE VIGOROUS SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE DYNAMICS...PLENTY OF LO CLDS LINGER NOT ONLY OVER UPR MI IN
THE CHILLY LLVL NW FLOW E OF THE INCOMING RDG AXIS BUT ALSO INTO NRN
MN RIGHT UNDER THE RDG AXIS. IN FACT...THE 12Z INL/YPL RAOBS DEPICT
A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVRN. HOWEVER SINCE THE INVRN BASE IS
SURPRISINGLY HI H85-875...THERE IS AMPLE DEPTH FOR LLVL MIXING WITH
INVERTED V SUB-INVRN LYR. SINCE H85 TEMPS ARE STILL ARND -15C IN THE
LLVL THERMAL TROF TRAILING THE DEPARTING SHRTWV...LES PERSISTS
MAINLY IN THE NW SN BELTS. BUT THE INTENSITY OF THIS ACTIVITY IS
DIMINISHING WITH FAIRLY HI SFC DEWPT DEPRESSIONS AND THE FLOW
TENDING TOWARD MORE ACYC UNDER THE NEGATIVE DYNAMICS. FARTHER
UPSTREAM...THERE IS A SHRTWV NEAR LK WINNIPEG MOVING ESEWD. BUT THE
AIRMASS IS SO DRY IN THIS AREA NOTHING BUT HI CLDS MARK THE PRESENCE
OF THIS FEATURE.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS THRU SUN ARE CLD TRENDS TNGT/IMPACT ON TEMPS.
TNGT...AS HI PRES BUILDS SLOWLY ACRS WI/UPR MI TNGT UNDER CONFLUENT
WNW FLOW ALF AND THE FLOW BACKS MORE TO THE W...EXPECT LINGERING LES
TO SHIFT INTO AREAS FAVORED BY THAT FLOW AND DIMINISH. WITH THE
BACKING FLOW...SUSPECT THE BULK OF THE LO CLD IN NRN MN WILL DRIFT
TO THE N OF UPR MI AS SHOWN BY THE 12Z LOCAL WRF-ARW MODEL. BUT
THESE CLDS MAY BE MORE PERSISTENT OVER THE KEWEENAW WITH FAVORABLE
UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT DOWN THE LENGTH OF WRN LK SUP AND E OF
MUNISING WITH A LATER BACKING OF THE FLOW. EVEN THOUGH SOME OF THE
HI CLDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE NEAR LK WINNIPEG MAY DRIFT
OVER THE CWA LATER TNGT AS THIS SHRTWV MOVES INTO NRN MN TOWARD
12Z...LGT WINDS/PWAT IN THE 0.15-0.20 INCH RANGE SUPPORT GOING FCST
MIN TEMPS TOWARD THE LO END OF GUIDANCE OVER AT LEAST THE INTERIOR W
HALF.
SUN...AS THE SFC HI PRES RDG DRIFTS INTO LOWER MI...THE LLVL FLOW
OVER UPR MI WL SHIFT TO THE SW...SO ANY LINGERING LK CLDS WL PUSH
OUT INTO LK SUP. WITH A GOOD DEAL OF STRONGER LATE FEB SUNSHINE TO
HEAT THIS DRY AIRMASS AND H85 TEMPS PROGGED TO REACH -5C TO -7C BY
00Z MON...EXPECT A HEALTHY DIURNAL TEMP RECOVERY TO PUSH MAX TEMPS
WELL INTO THE 30S AT MOST PLACES. AREAS OVER THE E CLOSER TO THE
DEPARTING H85 THERMAL TROF AND UNDER A SW FLOW OFF THE CHILLY WATERS
OF LK MI WL BE COLDEST.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM EST SAT FEB 18 2012
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE RESULTS IN BENIGN WEATHER
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL
RUN FM SOUTHERN WI THROUGH NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND INTO
SOUTHWEST QUEBEC BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. EXPECT LOWEST TEMPS ON SUNDAY
NIGHT OVER INLAND SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CWA CLOSER TO THE RIDGE AND
LIGHTER WINDS. BIAS CORRECTED GFS MOS LOOKED BEST...BUT DID SOME
ADDITIONAL TWEAK DOWN OF TEMPS OVR INLAND EAST.
ATTN ON MONDAY TURNS TO PAIR OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS THAT WILL BE
PUSHING FM THE ROCKIES EAST INTO THE CNTRL AND NORTHERN PLAINS.
GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN INDICATE TWO DISTINCT TROUGHS IN THE PV FIELDS
AND THIS STAYS THE CASE RIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE TROUGHS MOVE
ACROSS UPR LAKES. MAIN ISSUE ON MONDAY IS INCREASING MID CLOUDS OUT
AHEAD OF UPR TROUGHS. DESPITE CHILLY START...SHOULD BE ANOTHER WARM
AFTN AS MIXING TO 925MB-900MB SUPPORTS HIGHS WELL INTO THE 30S.
EXPECT NO PRECIP INTO WESTERN CWA BY 00Z TUE. NAM IS SIGNIFICANT
OUTLIER BY LIFTING WELL DEFINED H85 CLOSED LOW INTO NORTHERN MN/QPF
INTO FAR WESTERN UPR MI BY LATE TUESDAY AFTN. ALL OTHER GUIDANCE HAS
MORE OF AN ELONGATED TROUGH FM NEB INTO NW MN AND CONTINUE TO TREND
SLOWER IN ARRIVAL OF QPF OVR CWA UNTIL LATER MONDAY NIGHT. HAVE
DISCOUNTED THE NAM AND TRENDED TOWARD OTHER MODELS FOR ARRIVAL OF
PRECIPITATION.
INTO TUESDAY...MAIN DIFFERENCE IS THAT GFS IS MORE PHASED WITH H85
TROUGHS AND HAS MORE MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE UPR LAKES. EVEN THE
GFS SHOWS THE PRIMARY JET STREAM REMAINING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER.
ECMWF AND CANADIAN OFFER MORE TONED DOWN GFS IDEA BUT THEY ARE
SHOWING MORE PHASING OF H85 TROUGHS THAN THEY DID EARLIER. RESULT IS
MAIN MOISTURE STREAM/HIGHER PWATS STAYING TIED INTO SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE TRACKING ACROSS OHIO VALLEY INTO CNTRL GREAT LAKES WHILE
UPR LAKES/UPR MICHIGAN IS WITHIN REMNANTS OF DEEPER MOISTURE BEING
ADVECTED INTO THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM. LIMITED LARGE SCALE
PHASING ALLOWS WARMER AIR TO REMAIN TO SOUTH SO SNOW WILL BE MAIN
PTYPE. ONLY EXCEPTION IS ALONG IMMEDIATE LK MICHIGAN SHORE WHERE A
MIX OF RAIN/SNOW WAS MENTIONED WITH ONSHORE WINDS. BASED ON MAX
TEMPS INTO MID 30S CONSIDERED ADDING RAIN MENTION ELSEWHERE...BUT
WBZERO HEIGHTS LESS THAN 500AGL WOULD LEAD TO ONLY BRIEF MIXING WITH
RAIN BEFORE SNOW TAKES OVER AS MAIN PYTPE.
INCREASED POPS INTO THE LIKELY RANGE FOR TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY FIRST
PART OF DAY ON TUESDAY OVER WEST AS THAT IS WHEN THE TWO MOISTURE
STREAMS WITH THE SHORTWAVES ARE IN GREATEST PROXIMITY.
HOWEVER...BASED ON THE GENERAL DOWNWARD TREND TO MOISTURE/LIFT AS
TUESDAY GOES ON...IN ADDITION TO FAIRLY WARM BLYR TEMPS IN THE
LOWER-MID 30S...PROBABLY WILL NOT BE MUCH FOR SNOW ACCUMS OVER UPR
MI FOR MOST OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON TUESDAY. POSSIBLE EXCEPTION
WOULD BE IN THE FAR WEST DURING THE MORNING WHERE A FEW INCHES OF
SNOW COULD OCCUR VCNTY OF KIWD.
BASE OF NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH SETTLES CLOSE BY ON TUESDAY NIGHT
WHILE THERE IS STILL LINGERING H85-H7 MOISTURE IN WAKE OF SYSTEM THAT
MOVES THROUGH ON TUESDAY. GIVEN THE SETUP...CANNOT RULE OUT SMALL
SHORTWAVES ROUNDING BASE OF TROUGH THAT DO NOT SHOW UP IN GUIDANCE
RIGHT NOW. CARRIED SMALL CHANCE POPS FOR LGT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES...
ESPECIALLY OVER KEWEENAW WHERE WEST WINDS PROVIDE A BIT MORE
MOISTENING OFF LAKE SUPERIOR.
IN THE EXTENDED...SFC-H85 LOW IS FCST TO BE NORTH OF LK SUPERIOR ON
WEDNESDAY. 00Z ECMWF MORE AMPLIFIED WITH SMALLER H85 LOW SLIDING
ACROSS IN WESTERLY FLOW WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SWATH OF SYNOPTIC SNOW
OVR PORTIONS OF THE CWA ON WEDNESDAY. ECMWF IDEA SEEMS LIKE LOW RISK
AT THIS POINT AS PREVIOUS RUNS DID NOT HAVE THIS AND OTHER MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS DO NOT SHOW IT AS WELL. INSTEAD WILL GO WITH IDEA THAT
MAINLY QUIET CONDITIONS WILL BE AROUND ON WEDNESDAY IN WAKE OF
TUESDAY SYSTEM. UPR TROUGH EVENTUALLY SLIDES THROUGH UPR LAKES LATER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...USHERING IN COLDER AIR TO END THE
WEEK. CYCLONIC FLOW WITHIN THE SFC-H5 TROUGHINESS ALLOWS DEEPER
MOISTURE TO HANG AROUND THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. GIVEN COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND THE MOISTURE...PROBABLY WILL SEE ACCUMULATING SNOWS
FOR AREAS NEAR LK SUPERIOR FAVORED BY NW WINDS. DRYING FCST TO
SPREAD IN FM NW ON FRIDAY AS UPR LOW CENTER SLIDES EAST. DOES COOL
OFF SLIGHTLY COMPARED TO THURSDAY THOUGH...SO WOULD EXPECT LK EFFECT
TO CONTINUE IN NW FLOW AREAS WITH MAINLY LGT ACCUMS. SAME GOES FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS SFC-H85 RIDGE IS STUBBORN TO ARRIVE FM
THE WEST. KIND OF A CHANGE FROM THE QUICK-MOVING PATTERN THAT HAS
BEEN PRESENT OVER THE REGION FOR MOST OF THE WINTER. MAIN CHANGE TO
EXTENDED WAS TO INCREASE POPS FOR LK EFFECT AREAS COMPARED TO WHAT
ALLBLEND PROCEDURE GENERATED. AWAY FM THE LAKE EFFECT...EXPECT
MAINLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS FOR LATER FEBRUARY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM EST SAT FEB 18 2012
GIVEN PRESENCE OF MORE CLDS UPSTREAM OVER MN AND RATHER HI INVRN
BASE SHOWN ON THE 12Z INL RAOB...TENDED TO SLOW DOWN CLEARING
TREND/PROGRESSION TO VFR AT ALL 3 SITES FROM PREVIOUS FCST. SINCE
THE FLOW WL BE SHIFTING TO THE W WITH ARRIVAL OF HI PRES RDG...
MAINTAINED THE MVFR CIGS AT CMX THRU THE NGT WITH UPSLOPE WIND
COMPONENT. IWD/SAW SHOULD GO VFR THIS EVNG WITH ARRIVAL OF RDG AXIS
AND LESS FAVORABLE WIND. ONCE THE FLOW BACKS MORE TO THE WSW ON SUN
MRNG WITH SHIFT OF RDG TO THE E...EXPECT THE LO CLDS TO LIFT N OF
CMX AS WELL...WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREDOMINATING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 342 PM EST SAT FEB 18 2012
WITH AN UNSEASONABLY WEAK PRES GRADIENT FORECAST TO DOMINATE THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS COMING WEEK...EXPECT WINDS NO HIGHER THAN
25 KTS THIS FORECAST PERIOD. NO GALES ARE LIKELY ANYTIME SOON.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
1130 PM EST FRI FEB 17 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 238 PM EST FRI FEB 17 2012
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EASTWARD THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN
TONIGHT PRODUCING SOME SNOWFALL. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
ARRIVE FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS FAIR WEATHER SYSTEM WILL KEEP THE
AREA DRY GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL
ARRIVE FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH SOME RAIN OR SNOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 238 PM EST FRI FEB 17 2012
RADAR SHOWS A DEVELOPING AREA OF SNOW FROM NEAR GRAND RAPIDS WEST
THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF LAKE MI. SOME INSTABILITY WAS PRESENT
MAINLY FROM 850 MB TO 700 MB. THE BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE IN THE
DGZ TRACKS FROM NEAR MUSKEGON TO HOLLAND AT 21Z TO CADILLAC AND MT
PLEASANT BY 03Z. DEEP DRYING ARRIVES IN MUSKEGON BY 03Z...WHICH
SHOULD SHUT DOWN THE HIGH RISK FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. THE
HRRR RUC DOES SHOW A SUDDEN DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW IN THE 23Z TO 01Z
TIMEFRAME JUST WEST OF HOLLAND AND SOUTH HAVEN WHICH TRACKS EAST
INTO SOUTHWEST LOWER MI...WHICH WOULD PROLONG THE RISK FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW BEYOND 03Z. COLDER SURFACES COULD SEE AN INCH
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WHERE ANY BAND PERSISTS. MUCH OF THAT
SNOW COULD FALL IN AN HOURS TIME EARLY THIS EVENING. WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW COULD LEAD TO A
RETURN OF SOME SNOW FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. AS A
RESULT I WILL KEEP THE HIGHER POPS GOING TONIGHT...MAINLY FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF SNOW GOING INTO
SATURDAY.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM EST FRI FEB 17 2012
(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
AS A STORM MOVES ALONG THE GULF COAST...HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOVER
OVER THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AFTER MONDAY A CLIPPER AND A
WAVE MOVING EAST FROM THE ROCKIES ARE PROGD TO PHASE NEAR THE GREAT
LAKES TUESDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE A PERIOD OF SNOW TUESDAY NORTH OF
I-96 AND GENERALLY RAIN SOUTH OF THERE. TWO MORE CLIPPERS...ONE ON
WEDNESDAY AND ANOTHER THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN PCPN FROM WED
INTO FRIDAY. THE WEDNESDAY CLIPPER WILL DRAW A BIT MORE WARM AIR
NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION WHICH WILL RESULT IN SOME MORE LIGHT RAIN
OVER THE SRN HALF OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY BEFORE IT MOVES THROUGH. AS
COLDER AIR FLOWS IN BEHIND IT...WE/LL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE AT SOME
LIGHT SNOW BY THE TIME THE THURSDAY NIGHT CLIPPER ARRIVES. FROM
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY....THE LIGHT PCPN THAT FALLS WILL BE IN THE
FORM OF SNOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM EST FRI FEB 17 2012
MAINLY VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED AT ALL THE TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT WITH SCT-BKN LOW CLOUD COVER AND SOME FLURRIES. WILL HAVE
TO MONITOR FOR PATCHY LIGHT FOG WHERE MORE EXTENSIVE CLEARING HAS
DEVELOPED. MVFR LOW CLOUD COVER SHOULD BECOME MORE PROMINENT TOWARD
DAYBREAK. LIFTING/IMPROVING CIGS AND VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. SKIES SHOULD GO CLEAR
BY LATE SAT AFTN/EVE.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 238 PM EST FRI FEB 17 2012
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ISSUED FOR INCREASING WINDS AND WAVES TONIGHT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST FRI FEB 17 2012
RELATIVELY QUIET WITH THE HYDRO SECTION FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.
NO SIGNIFICANT RUNOFF FORECASTED THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MJS
SHORT TERM...MJS
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...LAURENS
MARINE...MJS
HYDROLOGY...MJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON MS
1037 AM CST SAT FEB 18 2012
.UPDATE...
HEAVY RAINFALL IS THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THIS AFTERNOON...
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE HWY 84 CORRIDOR. THE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER HAS
BEEN DIMINISHING AS IT IS BECOMING MORE APPARENT THAT A BOW ECHO
MOVING AND ACCELERATING EASTWARD ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR WILL STAY
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION PRECEDING THE BOW ECHO CONTINUES
TO MAINTAIN A STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER OVER SRN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA...BUT WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET IN PLACE...THERE IS STILL SOME
RISK FOR THE RICHER MARINE LAYER TO SURGE NORTH AND DESTABILIZE THE
AIRMASS OVER SRN MARION/LAMAR/FORREST COUNTIES SUFFICIENTLY TO GET
STRONG/SVR WIND GUSTS AT THE SURFACE AND PERHAPS A TORNADO. HIGH RES
MODELS ARE STRUGGLING TO DEPICT THE CONVECTIVE SCENARIO WITH THE
LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE IS TOO SLOW...SO MUCH OF THE FORECAST THINKING
IS BASED ON SATELLITE/RADAR/OBS DATA.
AN IMPRESSIVE SET-UP FOR HEAVY RAIN IS IN PLACE ALONG THE CNTRL GULF
COAST WITH THE ENTRANCE REGION TO A 150+KT JET STREAM LEADING TO
STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT OF 1.5+" PRECIPITABLE WATER AIRMASS INTO
THE ARKLAMISS. THE MOST INTENSE RAINFALL RATES ASSOCIATED WITH BOW
ECHO SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT STRONG FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING IS LEADING TO STEADIER HEAVY RAINFALL RATES UP TO THE I-20
CORRIDOR WHERE RUN-OFF PROBLEMS AND PONDING OF WATER ARE STILL LIKELY
DESPITE THE ABSENCE OF TSTMS. THE 12Z NAM SHIFTS THE STRONGER AREA
OF FORCING AND HEAVIER QPF ACROSS THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...WILL KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH GOING BUT WITH EMPHASIS
FOR HEAVIEST RAINFALL ALONG THE HWY 84 CORRIDOR.
OTHERWISE...WILL MAKE MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO FORECAST ELEMENTS
BASED ON LATEST TRENDS. THE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION IS BELOW. /EC/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 505 AM CST SAT FEB 18 2012/
RAINFALL DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW SHOULD EXIT TO THE
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THIS EVENING AND THE RAINFALL FOCUS WILL
SHIFT TO THE MID LEVEL TROF...WHICH WILL IMPACT AREAS MORE NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 20. THE RAIN WILL BE ENDING IN THE NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA
BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY CLEAR FROM THE SOUTHWEST
ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
ALLOWING FOR CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 30S.
LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THE WORK WEEK...THE UPPER LEVEL WEATHER
PATTERN EVOLUTION ACROSS THE LOWER FORTY-EIGHT FOR THE COMING WORK
WEEK LOOKS TO CONTINUE TO FEATURE QUITE A BIT OF ACTIVITY FOR THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. DURING THIS SPAN EXPECT SEVERAL
FRONTS TO AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA WITH CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION...ALTHOUGH SPECIFIC WEATHER SETUPS AND UNCERTAINTY DO
NOT YIELD MUCH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER PRECIPITATION (AT LEAST IN THE
LONG TERM PERIOD) UNTIL AT LEAST FRIDAY.
THE FIRST FRONT SHOULD BE MORE OF A LOW LEVEL TROUGH (FEATURING WEAK
TEMPERATURE GRADIENTS) PULLING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT
AND STALLING. MOISTURE ADVECTION AND INSTABILITY IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE QUITE MARGINAL AND...CONSIDERING BEST
ATMOSPHERIC LIFT AND FORCING WILL BE TO OUR NORTH...MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR NORTH OF OUR REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.
BUT IT WILL NOT TAKE LONG FOR ANOTHER FOR A MORE-SIGNIFICANT COLD
FRONT TO HEAD OUR WAY AS A MORE STABLE TROUGH AXIS ALOFT DEVELOPS A
LITTLE TO OUR WEST BY MIDWEEK. ALTHOUGH THIS FRONT COMING IN WILL
HAVE A STRONGER TEMP GRADIENT...IT IS STILL EXPECTED TO STALL IN THE
VICINITY OF THE REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AFTER COMING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE SOMEWHAT SUPPRESSED AND FAST NATURE
OF THE FLOW PATTERN WILL MAKE IT HARD TO GET CONSIDERABLE GULF JUICE
BACK INTO THE AREA FOR THIS BOUNDARY TO WORK WITH...BUT THERE IS
STILL EXPECTED TO BE SOME SHOWERS AND MAYBE A FEW STORMS ABOUT GOING
FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT ALL THE WAY THROUGH FRIDAY. AT THIS POINT
THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN OVER THIS PERIOD LOOK TO BE IN EASTERN AND
SOUTHERN MS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND THEN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. THERE ARE SOME SIGNALS THAT PHASING SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY
COMING INTO THE STALLED FRONT BY FRIDAY COULD LEAD TO HEAVY RAIN AND
STORMS...BUT MODEL CONSENSUS IS NOT HIGH ON THIS EVOLUTION...SO
THERE IS DEFINITELY TIME TO WATCH THINGS BEFORE THINKING ABOUT
INCLUDING WORDING IN THE HWO.
OTHERWISE...DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR IS RATHER STOUT THROUGH THIS WHOLE
PERIOD AND IS A LITTLE WORRISOME IF NEAR SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION
CAN DEVELOP ON ANY DAY NEXT WEEK. CHANCES FOR THIS OCCURRENCE EXIST
FOR FRIDAY...BUT UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH AS MENTIONED. BUT THERE ALSO
SEEMS TO BE A CHANCE FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED POCKETS OF DEEP
CONVECTION ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT COMING. AT THIS
POINT MODELS MAKE IT SEEM MUCH MORE LIKELY THAT COPIOUS STORMS
DEVELOPING NEAR THE COAST AT THAT TIME WILL BLOCK MOISTURE FEED INTO
THE HEART OF OUR REGION. WE WILL HAVE TO HOPE THAT OCCURS BECAUSE AN
UNINHIBITED GULF MOISTURE FEED INTO THE ARKLAMISS WOULD LIKELY FUEL
AT LEAST A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA.
GFS-BASED MODEL GUIDANCE DID NOT LOOK AT ALL BAD FOR THE LONG RANGE
PERIOD CONSIDERING MENTIONED UNCERTAINTIES. I TWEAKED POPS A LITTLE
ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT TO MATCH ENSEMBLE THINKING MORE
CLOSELY...BUT OTHERWISE REMAINED WITH MEX POPS. TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE LONG TERM SHOULD BE AVERAGE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
ALTHOUGH THE COLD FRONT COMING IN DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK
WILL HAVE SOME CHILLY AIR BEHIND IT AND ITS EVENTUAL POSITIONING
WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY. /BB/
&&
.AVIATION...
MOD TO HVY RAINS HAVE OVRSPRD THE ARKLAMISS THIS MORNING...WITH TSRA
ACTIVITY TIED TO AREAS ACROSS SRN MS. CONVECTION MAY PUSH CLOSER TO
THE HWY 84 CORRIDOR WITH TIME...HOWEVER SHOULD BE SCT IN NATURE WITH
BETTER TSRA COVERAGE FURTHER S. CIG WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE
THRU THE DAY AS THE MOISTURE SURGES IN. A TREND TOWARD MVFR AND
EVENTUALLY IFR CIG IS XPCTD AT MOST SITES. THIS WILL CONTINUE THRU
THE EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT BEFORE CONDS BEGIN TO SLOWLY IMPROVE
TOMORROW MORNING. SFC WINDS WILL BE NORTHEASTERLY/EASTERLY THRU THE
DAY...AND MAY BE OSNLY GUSTY. /BK/
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MSZ043>066-072>074.
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR LAZ016-023>026.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
652 AM MST SAT FEB 18 2012
.UPDATE...
GOES LOW CLOUD BASE PRODUCTS AND OBS SUPPORT THICK CLOUD COVER
OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN PLAINS SO HAVE RAISED SKY GRIDS TO NEAR
100 PCT TO COVER THIS. ALSO COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND FRONT HAS
ALLOWED A FEW AREAS ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF PRECIP SHIELD
TO TURN OVER TO SNOW. HAVE TWEAKED WX GRIDS AND WILL HAVE ZONES
OUT SHORTLY.
GUYER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...314 AM MST SAT FEB 18 2012...
ANOTHER LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE MARGINAL WINTER SYSTEM ON THE WAY
FOR NEW MEXICO LATE SUNDAY THROUGH LATE MONDAY. BUT FIRST THE SCENARIO
DISCUSSED LAST NIGHT REGARDING DEVELOPING PRECIP OVER THE E PLAINS IS
UNDER WAY AS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A SURFACE COLD FRONT COMBINES
WITH UPPER LEVEL DEFORMATION BTWN A DEPARTING UPPER WAVE AND ANOTHER
WAVE SLIDING EAST ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. RAISED POPS OVER THE EAST
CENTRAL AND SE PLAINS PER LATEST RADAR TRENDS. RUC BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
ACROSS THAT REGION WITH SUPPORT FROM SFC DEWPOINTS SHOW SURFACE WET
BULB ZERO VALUES ABOVE FREEZING EXCEPT FOR AN HOUR OR TWO BEFORE
SUNRISE...THEREFORE CURRENT RAIN ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN RAIN
AND EVEN IF SNOW DEVELOPS IT WILL BE JUST A BRIEF MIX WITH NO ACCUMS.
PRECIP WITH THIS WAVE WILL EXIT THE AREA BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. MAX
TEMPS WILL BE MUCH COOLER FOR THE NE PLAINS TODAY AND RELATIVELY THE
SAME FOR THE SE. ELSEWHERE...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL
MAKE FOR A PLEASANT DAY. 500-300MB LAYER RH VALUES WILL INCREASE FROM
THE WEST AS AN UPPER WAVE TRANSLATES SE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.
LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO PUSH THE MAIN DYNAMICS WITH THIS STORM
FARTHER NORTH AND BACKS OFF ON THE AMOUNT OF RAIN/SNOW FOR NORTHERN
NM. THE GEM AND EURO ARE STILL THE MOST BULLISH SO LEFT THE LOW END
LIKELY/HIGH CHANCE POPS OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN MONDAY. THE
OTHER CHANGE WAS TO PASS A STRONGER 700-500MB JET CORE OF NE NM WITH
WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS MANY AREAS. OVERALL...IT APPEARS JUST A FEW
INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR NORTH WITH BLOWING SNOW
PERHAPS THE MAIN CONCERN. 700MB TEMPS ARE QUITE CHILLY WITH THIS
WAVE SO HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE 10 TO 15F BLW NORMAL AND WIND CHILL
VALUES QUITE COLD. ON A SIDE NOTE THE 00Z NAM WAS REALLY OFF THE
WALL ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THIS STORM COMPARED TO REMAINDER OF
THE MODEL SUITE.
BY TUESDAY THE GFS AND EURO WITH AGREEMENT FROM THE NORTH AMERICAN
ENSEMBLE SHOW A JET DIVING SOUTH THRU THE GREAT BASIN ALLOWING FOR
A CUT OFF LOW TO DEVELOP OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL KEEP NM
IN MODERATE COOL AND DRY NW FLOW THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A
FEW WEAK RIPPLES WITH THE NW FLOW COULD DELIVER SOME SNOW SHOWERS
TO THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE NORTHERN MTS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS. A BACK DOOR FRONT MAY SLIP INTO THE NE PLAINS WITH COOLER
TEMPS FOR THURSDAY/FRIDAY. OTHERWISE A MUCH QUIETER WEATHER PATTERN
IS EXPECTED.
GUYER
.AVIATION...
MOUNTAINS OCNLY OBSCD THROUGH 18Z. PRECIPITATION CONTINUES OVER
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO DUE TO CIRCULATION FROM UPPER LOW
CENTERED OVER TX BIG BEND REGION. THIS SHOULD EXIT TO THE EAST BY
18Z. OTHERWISE LIGHT PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE FRONT
STRETCHED FROM VCNTY SANTA ROSA TO GLENRIO AT 09Z WILL CONTINUE TO
SAG SOUTHWARD THROUGH 18Z WITH BRIEF NLY WIND GUSTS TO 30KT
POSSIBLE. AREAS OF MVFR TO LOCALIZED IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE FOUND
FROM THE EAST SLOPES CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN TO THE TEXAS
BORDER...WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR AFTER 20Z. IN THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS...LOCALIZED IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN BR/FZFG
SHOULD DISSIPATE BY LATE MORNING.
NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 22Z.
.FIRE WEATHER...
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE
THIS MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR THE TX BIG
BEND REGION EXITS TO THE EAST. IN ADDITION...A BAND OF PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE FRONT EXTENDING FROM NEAR SANTA ROSA TO
GLENRIO WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTH THIS MORNING. GUSTY NORTH WINDS
WILL ACCOMPANY THIS BOUNDARY BUT SHOULD NOT BE LONG LIVED.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD DIMINISH BY MIDDAY AS A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS.
VENTILATION TODAY WILL BE POOR OVER MUCH OF THE WEST AND FAR EASTERN
BORDER...BUT GOOD ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE OVERALL THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT SHOULD BE DRY BUT WITH GOOD TO EXCELLENT RH RECOVERIES.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO
NORTHERN AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO SUNDAY AND TO AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 40 SUNDAY NIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE NOW FORECAST TO BE
STRONGER SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE INCOMING TROUGH IS A LITTLE QUICKER
ALONG WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. VENTILATION SHOULD BE GOOD TO
EXCELLENT OVERALL. RH VALUES ARE NOW FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE MID
TO UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS...WHICH
COULD LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT OF AT LEAST SPOTTY CRITICAL CONDITIONS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE MONDAY WITH STRONG DRYING. LOCALIZED
CRITICAL CONDITIONS COULD REDEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON IN THE EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS. VENTILATION WILL REMAIN GOOD TO EXCELLENT EAST BUT
WILL RANGE FROM FAIR TO GOOD IN THE NORTHWEST.
THEREAFTER A CLOSED UPPER LOW IS NOW FORECAST TO DEVELOP TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF NEW MEXICO TUESDAY...BUT AT THIS TIME APPEARS TO HAVE
LITTLE IMPACT ON THE FORECAST AREA. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL SWEEP
THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE STATE...BRINGING SOME TEMPERATURE
SWINGS AND POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR
MOST LOCALES TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS UPDATE...
FARMINGTON...................... 49 26 46 19 / 0 0 40 50
DULCE........................... 45 11 43 11 / 0 5 40 60
CUBA............................ 43 20 45 22 / 0 0 20 50
GALLUP.......................... 48 19 46 18 / 0 0 30 50
EL MORRO........................ 41 20 42 21 / 0 0 30 30
GRANTS.......................... 44 24 45 24 / 0 0 20 30
QUEMADO......................... 45 22 47 25 / 0 0 20 20
GLENWOOD........................ 55 22 59 23 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 40 18 39 18 / 0 5 50 60
LOS ALAMOS...................... 41 23 44 26 / 0 0 5 40
PECOS........................... 39 24 43 26 / 5 0 0 30
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 42 11 44 15 / 0 0 0 50
RED RIVER....................... 35 14 37 12 / 5 0 5 60
ANGEL FIRE...................... 37 15 41 16 / 5 0 5 50
TAOS............................ 42 16 44 21 / 0 0 0 40
MORA............................ 40 11 45 25 / 5 0 0 30
ESPANOLA........................ 50 22 52 21 / 0 0 0 40
SANTA FE........................ 42 29 45 27 / 0 0 0 40
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 46 25 49 23 / 0 0 0 30
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 49 32 52 28 / 0 0 0 10
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 51 32 55 29 / 0 0 0 5
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 52 28 56 30 / 0 0 0 5
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 53 30 56 28 / 0 0 0 5
LOS LUNAS....................... 52 23 57 27 / 0 0 0 5
RIO RANCHO...................... 50 29 53 27 / 0 0 0 5
SOCORRO......................... 56 29 62 32 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 46 27 49 25 / 0 0 5 20
TIJERAS......................... 50 28 53 28 / 0 0 0 10
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 43 25 48 26 / 0 0 0 5
CLINES CORNERS.................. 39 26 45 25 / 0 0 0 10
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 46 26 52 29 / 0 0 0 5
CARRIZOZO....................... 50 27 56 28 / 0 0 0 5
RUIDOSO......................... 44 28 50 29 / 5 0 0 5
CAPULIN......................... 37 23 51 27 / 5 0 0 10
RATON........................... 49 24 57 26 / 5 0 0 10
SPRINGER........................ 47 19 57 26 / 5 0 0 10
LAS VEGAS....................... 42 17 52 26 / 5 0 0 10
CLAYTON......................... 40 24 58 29 / 5 0 0 10
ROY............................. 42 22 56 30 / 5 0 0 10
CONCHAS......................... 47 27 62 34 / 5 0 0 10
SANTA ROSA...................... 48 24 60 32 / 5 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 46 28 63 35 / 10 0 0 5
CLOVIS.......................... 44 30 62 33 / 30 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 46 31 63 34 / 30 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 53 26 67 34 / 20 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 52 27 69 36 / 20 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 51 24 64 31 / 10 0 0 0
ELK............................. 48 26 58 31 / 5 0 0 5
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
GUYER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
314 AM MST SAT FEB 18 2012
.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE MARGINAL WINTER SYSTEM ON THE WAY
FOR NEW MEXICO LATE SUNDAY THROUGH LATE MONDAY. BUT FIRST THE SCENARIO
DISCUSSED LAST NIGHT REGARDING DEVELOPING PRECIP OVER THE E PLAINS IS
UNDER WAY AS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A SURFACE COLD FRONT COMBINES
WITH UPPER LEVEL DEFORMATION BTWN A DEPARTING UPPER WAVE AND ANOTHER
WAVE SLIDING EAST ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. RAISED POPS OVER THE EAST
CENTRAL AND SE PLAINS PER LATEST RADAR TRENDS. RUC BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
ACROSS THAT REGION WITH SUPPORT FROM SFC DEWPOINTS SHOW SURFACE WET
BULB ZERO VALUES ABOVE FREEZING EXCEPT FOR AN HOUR OR TWO BEFORE
SUNRISE...THEREFORE CURRENT RAIN ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN RAIN
AND EVEN IF SNOW DEVELOPS IT WILL BE JUST A BRIEF MIX WITH NO ACCUMS.
PRECIP WITH THIS WAVE WILL EXIT THE AREA BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. MAX
TEMPS WILL BE MUCH COOLER FOR THE NE PLAINS TODAY AND RELATIVELY THE
SAME FOR THE SE. ELSEWHERE...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL
MAKE FOR A PLEASANT DAY. 500-300MB LAYER RH VALUES WILL INCREASE FROM
THE WEST AS AN UPPER WAVE TRANSLATES SE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.
LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO PUSH THE MAIN DYNAMICS WITH THIS STORM
FARTHER NORTH AND BACKS OFF ON THE AMOUNT OF RAIN/SNOW FOR NORTHERN
NM. THE GEM AND EURO ARE STILL THE MOST BULLISH SO LEFT THE LOW END
LIKELY/HIGH CHANCE POPS OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN MONDAY. THE
OTHER CHANGE WAS TO PASS A STRONGER 700-500MB JET CORE OF NE NM WITH
WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS MANY AREAS. OVERALL...IT APPEARS JUST A FEW
INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR NORTH WITH BLOWING SNOW
PERHAPS THE MAIN CONCERN. 700MB TEMPS ARE QUITE CHILLY WITH THIS
WAVE SO HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE 10 TO 15F BLW NORMAL AND WIND CHILL
VALUES QUITE COLD. ON A SIDE NOTE THE 00Z NAM WAS REALLY OFF THE
WALL ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THIS STORM COMPARED TO REMAINDER OF
THE MODEL SUITE.
BY TUESDAY THE GFS AND EURO WITH AGREEMENT FROM THE NORTH AMERICAN
ENSEMBLE SHOW A JET DIVING SOUTH THRU THE GREAT BASIN ALLOWING FOR
A CUT OFF LOW TO DEVELOP OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL KEEP NM
IN MODERATE COOL AND DRY NW FLOW THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A
FEW WEAK RIPPLES WITH THE NW FLOW COULD DELIVER SOME SNOW SHOWERS
TO THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE NORTHERN MTS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS. A BACK DOOR FRONT MAY SLIP INTO THE NE PLAINS WITH COOLER
TEMPS FOR THURSDAY/FRIDAY. OTHERWISE A MUCH QUIETER WEATHER PATTERN
IS EXPECTED.
GUYER
&&
.AVIATION...
MOUNTAINS OCNLY OBSCD THROUGH 18Z. PRECIPITATION CONTINUES OVER
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO DUE TO CIRCULATION FROM UPPER LOW
CENTERED OVER TX BIG BEND REGION. THIS SHOULD EXIT TO THE EAST BY
18Z. OTHERWISE LIGHT PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE FRONT
STRETCHED FROM VCNTY SANTA ROSA TO GLENRIO AT 09Z WILL CONTINUE TO
SAG SOUTHWARD THROUGH 18Z WITH BRIEF NLY WIND GUSTS TO 30KT
POSSIBLE. AREAS OF MVFR TO LOCALIZED IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE FOUND
FROM THE EAST SLOPES CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN TO THE TEXAS
BORDER...WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR AFTER 20Z. IN THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS...LOCALIZED IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN BR/FZFG
SHOULD DISSIPATE BY LATE MORNING.
NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 22Z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE
THIS MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR THE TX BIG
BEND REGION EXITS TO THE EAST. IN ADDITION...A BAND OF PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE FRONT EXTENDING FROM NEAR SANTA ROSA TO
GLENRIO WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTH THIS MORNING. GUSTY NORTH WINDS
WILL ACCOMPANY THIS BOUNDARY BUT SHOULD NOT BE LONG LIVED.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD DIMINISH BY MIDDAY AS A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS.
VENTILATION TODAY WILL BE POOR OVER MUCH OF THE WEST AND FAR EASTERN
BORDER...BUT GOOD ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE OVERALL THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT SHOULD BE DRY BUT WITH GOOD TO EXCELLENT RH RECOVERIES.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO
NORTHERN AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO SUNDAY AND TO AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 40 SUNDAY NIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE NOW FORECAST TO BE
STRONGER SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE INCOMING TROUGH IS A LITTLE QUICKER
ALONG WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. VENTILATION SHOULD BE GOOD TO
EXCELLENT OVERALL. RH VALUES ARE NOW FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE MID
TO UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS...WHICH
COULD LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT OF AT LEAST SPOTTY CRITICAL CONDITIONS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE MONDAY WITH STRONG DRYING. LOCALIZED
CRITICAL CONDITIONS COULD REDEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON IN THE EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS. VENTILATION WILL REMAIN GOOD TO EXCELLENT EAST BUT
WILL RANGE FROM FAIR TO GOOD IN THE NORTHWEST.
THEREAFTER A CLOSED UPPER LOW IS NOW FORECAST TO DEVELOP TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF NEW MEXICO TUESDAY...BUT AT THIS TIME APPEARS TO HAVE
LITTLE IMPACT ON THE FORECAST AREA. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL SWEEP
THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE STATE...BRINGING SOME TEMPERATURE
SWINGS AND POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR
MOST LOCALES TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 49 26 46 19 / 0 0 40 50
DULCE........................... 45 11 43 11 / 0 5 40 60
CUBA............................ 43 20 45 22 / 0 0 20 50
GALLUP.......................... 48 19 46 18 / 0 0 30 50
EL MORRO........................ 41 20 42 21 / 0 0 30 30
GRANTS.......................... 44 24 45 24 / 0 0 20 30
QUEMADO......................... 45 22 47 25 / 0 0 20 20
GLENWOOD........................ 55 22 59 23 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 40 18 39 18 / 0 5 50 60
LOS ALAMOS...................... 41 23 44 26 / 0 0 5 40
PECOS........................... 39 24 43 26 / 5 0 0 30
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 42 11 44 15 / 0 0 0 50
RED RIVER....................... 35 14 37 12 / 5 0 5 60
ANGEL FIRE...................... 37 15 41 16 / 5 0 5 50
TAOS............................ 42 16 44 21 / 0 0 0 40
MORA............................ 40 11 45 25 / 5 0 0 30
ESPANOLA........................ 50 22 52 21 / 0 0 0 40
SANTA FE........................ 42 29 45 27 / 0 0 0 40
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 46 25 49 23 / 0 0 0 30
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 49 32 52 28 / 0 0 0 10
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 51 32 55 29 / 0 0 0 5
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 52 28 56 30 / 0 0 0 5
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 53 30 56 28 / 0 0 0 5
LOS LUNAS....................... 52 23 57 27 / 0 0 0 5
RIO RANCHO...................... 50 29 53 27 / 0 0 0 5
SOCORRO......................... 56 29 62 32 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 46 27 49 25 / 0 0 5 20
TIJERAS......................... 50 28 53 28 / 0 0 0 10
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 43 25 48 26 / 0 0 0 5
CLINES CORNERS.................. 39 26 45 25 / 0 0 0 10
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 46 26 52 29 / 0 0 0 5
CARRIZOZO....................... 50 27 56 28 / 0 0 0 5
RUIDOSO......................... 44 28 50 29 / 5 0 0 5
CAPULIN......................... 37 23 51 27 / 5 0 0 10
RATON........................... 49 24 57 26 / 5 0 0 10
SPRINGER........................ 47 19 57 26 / 5 0 0 10
LAS VEGAS....................... 42 17 52 26 / 5 0 0 10
CLAYTON......................... 40 24 58 29 / 5 0 0 10
ROY............................. 42 22 56 30 / 5 0 0 10
CONCHAS......................... 47 27 62 34 / 5 0 0 10
SANTA ROSA...................... 48 24 60 32 / 5 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 46 28 63 35 / 10 0 0 5
CLOVIS.......................... 44 30 62 33 / 30 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 46 31 63 34 / 30 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 53 26 67 34 / 20 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 52 27 69 36 / 20 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 51 24 64 31 / 10 0 0 0
ELK............................. 48 26 58 31 / 5 0 0 5
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
GUYER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
354 PM EST SAT FEB 18 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. A FEW LINGERING
FLURRIES IN THE FINGER LAKES REGION SUNDAY MORNING...BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE BRINGS QUIET WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE CWA
THIS AFTERNOON. IT WILL MAKE IT ACROSS AND WEAK OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
THERE WILL BE SOME SHOWERS WITH THIS SYSTEM, MAINLY IN THE FORM OF
SNOW, BUT SOME AREAS, ESPECIALLY IN NEPA, MAY SEE SOME RAIN.
CURRENTLY, RADAR RETURNS OVER NEPA ARE NOT REFLECTING WHAT IS
BEING REPORTED BY ASOS AT A COUPLE OF SITES. BOTH MSV AND AVP HAD
STRONGER RETURNS PASS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD AND NEITHER REPORTED ANY
PRECIPITATION. ON THE OTHER HAND, RME HAD SOME LIGHTER RETURNS AND
IS REPORTING MODERATE SNOW. SAME WITH ELZ. THIS MAKES FORECASTING
POPS A LITTLE TRICKY. BEST GUESS IS SOME VIRGA, WITH FLURRIES/SPRINKLES
AND ISOLATED SHOWERS. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
THE HRRR DID SHOW THIS TYPE OF RETURNS, SO WILL MODEL POPS AFTER
THAT, AT LEAST AS GUIDANCE FOR TIMING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THIS LOW, AS MENTIONED BEFORE, WILL MOVE ACROSS TONIGHT AND WILL
WEAKEN AS IT DOES. SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL FOLLOW BEHIND IT
AND MAY KICK OFF SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN THE NORTHERN AND FINGER
LAKE ZONES. NOT EXPECTING MORE THEN A COUPLE OF INCHES FROM ANY OF
THESE SNOW SHOWERS. BY SUNDAY MORNING, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD IN AND LAKE EFFECT WILL COME TO AN END SUNDAY MORNING. THIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WELL TO THE
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
SUNDAY WILL BE THE COOLER DAY, WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS IN THE
AFTERNOON. THEN, WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL SLOWLY INCREASE
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, WITH UPPER 40S
POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAIN PLAYER FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE A DEVELOPING MID-LEVEL VORTEX
SOUTH OF HUDSON BAY WHICH WILL KEEP MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION
EMBEDDED IN SW FLOW ALOFT. AS IS THE CASE WITH THESE SYNOPTIC
SITUATIONS...EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES ROTATING ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE WILL RESULT IN AN ACTIVE WX
PATTERN FOR MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION TOWARDS MID/LATE WEEK.
GFS AND ECMWF DETERMINISTIC PROGS APPEAR TO BE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT TO START OUT THE PERIOD WITH FIRST SHORTWAVE/SFC FRONT
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON WED. WITH ITS
ARRIVAL...EXPECT MAINLY A RA/SN MIX WED NGT BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO
ALL RA BY LATE WED MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. MODELS THEN ADVERTISE
A MORE POTENT DISTURBANCE ON THRU AS SECOND SHORTWAVE ROTATES INTO
THE REGION. AGAIN...EXPECT RA/SN MIX LATE WED/EARLY THU BEFORE
ONCE AGAIN CHANGING OVER TO ALL RA THROUGH THE DAY. MODEL
DIFFERENCES DO APPEAR BY THIS POINT HOWEVER AS GFS PHASES BOTH
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY CORES ACROSS THE TENN RVR
VLY/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BEFORE DEVELOPING A COASTAL LOW BY LATE
THU OFF THE HATTERAS COAST. ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND SHOWS NO
INDICATION OF PHASING AND NO SUGGESTION FOR ANY COASTAL
DEVELOPMENT. IF THE GFS/S SCENARIO WERE TO PAN OUT...FEATURE LOOKS
TO BE A QUICK HITTER WITH MAIN QPF SHIELD REMAINING SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE CWA. FUTURE MODEL RUNS MOST CERTAINLY BARE WATCHING.
NEXT COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON FRI WHICH
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY THE ARRIVAL OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE AND A
CHILLY START FOR NEXT WEEKEND. MODELS SUGGEST H85 TEMPS FALLING TO
NEAR -18C WHICH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A LAKE RESPONSE OFF OF LAKE
ONTARIO IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
1230 PM UPDATE...
MAINLY VFR AT PRESENT. SNOW SHOWERS STILL WILL AFFECT RME AND AVP
WITH THE INITIAL FRONT. CONDITIONS COULD BRIEFLY FALL TO IFR VSBYS
AND MVFR CIGS THE NEXT 2 HOURS.
SFC LOW OVER EAST END OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE ITS SLOW TRACK
EAST THIS AFTN AND EVENING. COLDER AIR COMING IN ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE LOW NOW SETTING OFF LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS IN WRN NY. THESE
WILL MOVE EAST AND AFFECT CENTRAL NY TERMINALS STARTING 21Z. AGAIN
IFR VSBYS MOST LIKELY AT RME WITH MVFR VSBYS AND CIGS REST OF NY
IN SNOW SHOWERS.
TONIGHT WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTING TO NW...CIGS WILL FALL
TO MVFR IN NY. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE ESPECIALLY ITH AND
SYR. LATE TONIGHT WITH NNW FLOW...WAA AND SOME DRIER AIR
CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE WITH ITH AND BGM HOLDING ONTO THE
MVFR CIGS THE LONGEST. ELM RME SYR SHOULD RISE TO VFR AROUND 12Z
SUNDAY.
S TO SW WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KTS SHIFTING TO WEST THIS AFTN AT 10 KTS.
NW WINDS AT 5 TO 8 KTS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
.OUTLOOK...
SUN/MON/TUE MORN...MAINLY VFR. SUNDAY POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS AT ITH
FROM LAKE INDUCED CLOUDS FROM CAYUGA LAKE.
TUE AFTN/THU...MVFR IN MIXED PRECIP.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SLI
NEAR TERM...SLI
SHORT TERM...SLI
LONG TERM...CMG
AVIATION...TAC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
206 PM EST SAT FEB 18 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. A FEW LINGERING
FLURRIES IN THE FINGER LAKES REGION SUNDAY MORNING...BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE BRINGS QUIET WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE CWA
THIS AFTERNOON. IT WILL MAKE IT ACROSS AND WEAK OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
THERE WILL BE SOME SHOWERS WITH THIS SYSTEM, MAINLY IN THE FORM OF
SNOW, BUT SOME AREAS, ESPECIALLY IN NEPA, MAY SEE SOME RAIN.
CURRENTLY, RADAR RETURNS OVER NEPA ARE NOT REFLECTING WHAT IS
BEING REPORTED BY ASOS AT A COUPLE OF SITES. BOTH MSV AND AVP HAD
STRONGER RETURNS PASS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD AND NEITHER REPORTED ANY
PRECIPITATION. ON THE OTHER HAND, RME HAD SOME LIGHTER RETURNS AND
IS REPORTING MODERATE SNOW. SAME WITH ELZ. THIS MAKES FORECASTING
POPS A LITTLE TRICKY. BEST GUESS IS SOME VIRGA, WITH FLURRIES/SPRINKLES
AND ISOLATED SHOWERS. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
THE HRRR DID SHOW THIS TYPE OF RETURNS, SO WILL MODEL POPS AFTER
THAT, AT LEAST AS GUIDANCE FOR TIMING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THIS LOW, AS MENTIONED BEFORE, WILL MOVE ACROSS TONIGHT AND WILL
WEAKEN AS IT DOES. SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL FOLLOW BEHIND IT
AND MAY KICK OFF SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN THE NORTHERN AND FINGER
LAKE ZONES. NOT EXPECTING MORE THEN A COUPLE OF INCHES FROM ANY OF
THESE SNOW SHOWERS. BY SUNDAY MORNING, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD IN AND LAKE EFFECT WILL COME TO AN END SUNDAY MORNING. THIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WELL TO THE
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
SUNDAY WILL BE THE COOLER DAY, WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS IN THE
AFTERNOON. THEN, WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL SLOWLY INCREASE
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, WITH UPPER 40S
POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
3 PM UPDATE...
MODELS SIMILAR. ACTIVE MILD PATTERN CONTINUES. LARGE SFC HIGH
PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PUSH OFF TO THE EAST EARLY
TUESDAY. WEAK COLD FRONT GOES THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
MIXED PRECIPITATION CHANGING TO SNOW. ECMWF FASTER AND STRONGER
BUT STILL NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR A LAKE RESPONSE. THU TO FRI A LARGE
SFC LOW TRACKS EAST JUST TO THE NORTH SO PROBABLY SNOW TO RAIN
THEN BACK TO SNOW. BEHIND THIS STORM NOT PARTICULARLY COLD FOR
MUCH OF A LAKE RESPONSE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. AGAIN SHORT LIVED
COLDER SPELL WITH A ZONAL FLOW AND ABOVE NORMAL UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
1230 PM UPDATE...
MAINLY VFR AT PRESENT. SNOW SHOWERS STILL WILL AFFECT RME AND AVP
WITH THE INITIAL FRONT. CONDITIONS COULD BRIEFLY FALL TO IFR VSBYS
AND MVFR CIGS THE NEXT 2 HOURS.
SFC LOW OVER EAST END OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE ITS SLOW TRACK
EAST THIS AFTN AND EVENING. COLDER AIR COMING IN ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE LOW NOW SETTING OFF LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS IN WRN NY. THESE
WILL MOVE EAST AND AFFECT CENTRAL NY TERMINALS STARTING 21Z. AGAIN
IFR VSBYS MOST LIKELY AT RME WITH MVFR VSBYS AND CIGS REST OF NY
IN SNOW SHOWERS.
TONIGHT WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTING TO NW...CIGS WILL FALL
TO MVFR IN NY. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE ESPECIALLY ITH AND
SYR. LATE TONIGHT WITH NNW FLOW...WAA AND SOME DRIER AIR
CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE WITH ITH AND BGM HOLDING ONTO THE
MVFR CIGS THE LONGEST. ELM RME SYR SHOULD RISE TO VFR AROUND 12Z
SUNDAY.
S TO SW WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KTS SHIFTING TO WEST THIS AFTN AT 10 KTS.
NW WINDS AT 5 TO 8 KTS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
.OUTLOOK...
SUN/MON/TUE MORN...MAINLY VFR. SUNDAY POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS AT ITH
FROM LAKE INDUCED CLOUDS FROM CAYUGA LAKE.
TUE AFTN/THU...MVFR IN MIXED PRECIP.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SLI
NEAR TERM...SLI
SHORT TERM...SLI
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...TAC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
1253 AM EST SAT FEB 18 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK LOW HAS INCREASED CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LIGHT MIXED
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE FOR CENTRAL NEW YORK. LAKE EFFECT
SNOW WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK AND THE
TUG HILL PLATEAU...LASTING THROUGH TONIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK LOW
WILL BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
10PM...BACKED OFF ON THE LE FOR THIS EVE AND OVRNGT. JUST TOO MANY
THINGS WRKG AGAINST IT...AND DO NOT SEE ANYTHING DVLPG ATTM. WILL
CONT WITH CHANCE POPS IN THE NORTH. OTRW...JUST SOME TEMP
ADJUSTMENTS WITH THIS UPDATE.
7PM...SHRT WV FIRING SNOW SHWRS OVER THE NRN CWA IS NOW PULLING
OUT. IN RESPONSE...SHWRS SEEM TO BE WEAKENING AND THE BACK EDGE
NOW MVG ON SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO. DFRNCS IN THE SHRT TERM MODELS
MAKE THIS A LOW CONFIDENCE FCST...BUT THE WRFARW IS SHOWING SOME
LE DVLPG BHD THE WV IN THE WEAK CAA. HRRR SHOWS LTL OR NOTHING.
HAVE ADJUSTED THE POPS FOR THE CRNT RADAR TREND AND WILL CONT TO
LOOK AT THE LE PSBLTY LTR THIS EVE.
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS BEGUN TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S INTO THE MID 40S,
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE SPRINKLES TO VERY LIGHT
SHOWERS. EXPECTING VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION FROM
THIS SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM WILL MAKE IT THROUGH MOST OF THE CWA BY
MIDNIGHT. BEHIND IT, LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
NORTHERN ZONES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOWLY WARMING OVER THE LAKE.
THIS SHOULD HELP TO LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO
UNDER 4 INCHES IN NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY, AND LESS IN OTHER
LOCATIONS. BY MORNING, THE SFC FLOW WILL TURN MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW, AND THE 700MB FLOW WILL BE MORE WESTERLY.
THIS WILL CAUSE THE LES TO WEAKEN AND MOVE MORE TO THE NORTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION TOMORROW MORNING. IT WILL WEAKEN AS IT DOES AND
BECOME AN OPEN TROUGH BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS LOW WILL BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION TOMORROW BE AROUND 18Z.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH TO HAVE RAIN IN MANY LOCATIONS,
ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS. HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY SEE SOME SNOW.
QPF AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH, WHICH WOULD
BE LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW IN LOCATIONS THAT DO ONLY SEE SNOW.
THIS LOW WILL MOVE OUT SATURDAY NIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
BACK IN BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL KEEP A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WELL TO THE SOUTH AND QUIET WEATHER OVER THE CWA.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
3 PM UPDATE...
MODELS SIMILAR. ACTIVE MILD PATTERN CONTINUES. LARGE SFC HIGH
PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT PUSHES
OFF TO THE EAST EARLY TUESDAY. WEAK COLD FRONT GOES THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH MIXED PRECIPITATION CHANGING TO SNOW. ECMWF
FASTER AND STRONGER BUT STILL NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR A LAKE RESPONSE.
THU TO FRI A LARGE SFC LOW TRACKS EAST JUST TO THE NORTH SO
PROBABLY SNOW TO RAIN THEN BACK TO SNOW. BEHIND THIS STORM NOT
PARTICULARLY COLD FOR MUCH OF A LAKE RESPONSE FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. AGAIN SHORT LIVED COLDER SPELL WITH A ZONAL FLOW AND
ABOVE NORMAL UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR WILL PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVRNGT HRS...WITH MVFR
DVLPNG ACRS N CNTRL NY BY LATE MRNG OR EARLY AFTN...SPREADING SEWD
ACRS THE REMAINDER OF CNTRL NY AND NE PA BY LATE AFTN. S/WV AND
ASSCD SFC LOW WILL WORK INTO THE RGN TDA. POTNL FOR SOME WAA-
INDUCED -SHSN LATE THIS MRNG PROMARILY AT SYR/RME...WITH MVFR
WORKING SEWD THIS AFTN. AS THE CDFNT PUSHES THRU IN THE LATE
AFTN...PROFILES SUGGEST POTNL FOR SQUALLS...AND TRIED TO INDICATE
BEST POTNL FOR THE SQUALLS IN A 2-HR TEMPO GROUP. ACTIVITY TO
DIMINISH DURING THE EVNG HRS...ALTHO -SHSN WILL LIKELY PERSIST IN
THE NW TO NRLY FLOW S OF LAKE ONTARIO NGT...BEST CHCS AT ITH/BGM
AND PSBLY SYR. WINDS THIS MRNG GNRLY FROM THE W OR SW 5-10
KTS...BECMG SW TDA 10-20 KTS (ALTHO WEAK SE FLOW MAY OCCUR AT
RME)...THEN NW TO NRLY WINDS TNGT 10-15 KTS.
.OUTLOOK...
SUN/MON/TUE...MAINLY VFR WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS AT ITH FROM
LAKE INDUCED CLOUDS FROM CAYUGA LAKE.
TUE NGT/WED...MVFR IN MIXED PRECIP.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SLI
NEAR TERM...DGM/SLI
SHORT TERM...SLI
LONG TERM...TAC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
639 AM EST SAT FEB 18 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW WILL MOVE FROM LOWER MICHIGAN TO WESTERN NEW YORK STATE
TODAY AND DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT AND CONTINUE IN CONTROL OF
OUR WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A LOW WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST JUST NORTH OF LAKE ERIE THIS
MORNING. SOME PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE LOW. THIS PRECIPITATION
IS LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS AND IT SHOULD MAINLY IMPACT THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH DAYBREAK. IT IS MOVING QUICKLY SO WILL ONLY
MENTION IT IN THE SNOW BELT AREAS. HOWEVER THE 05Z-08Z HRRR MODEL RUN
HAS MORE PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING AROUND DAYBREAK OVER NORTHEAST OHIO
AND NORTHWEST PA. NOTHING GOING ON OVER NORTHERN INDIANA. STILL
GOING ON THE PREMISE THAT THIS PRECIPITATION WILL NOT DEVELOP AND
HAVE THE WORDING EARLY IN THE GRIDS/ZONES FOR EXTREME NORTHEAST
OHIO AND NORTHWEST PA.
SOME MINOR LAKE EFFECT/LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON FOR THE SNOW BELT. THIS IS THE TOUGH
PART OF THE FORECAST. THE RIDGE WILL TRY TO BUILD IN AND THE LAKE
AND 850 MB TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE WILL BE NEAR 11 OR 12C BY
EVENING. THE GFS MODEL SEEMS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THIS BASED
ON THE MOISTURE. ATTM WILL KEEP THE POPS 50% BUT GO WITH SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS AND UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATION...FROM
ASHTABULA COUNTY EAST. ELSEWHERE A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE AS
WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT FOR MORE CLOUDS TO MOVE BACK IN THIS MORNING
AS THE LOW MOVES EAST. USED A BLEND OF THE MOS GUIDANCE AS
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL COOL DOWN BEHIND THE LOW...HOWEVER...WITH
SOME SUNSHINE THIS TIME OF YEAR THAT WILL HELP KEEP THE
TEMPERATURES MORE STEADY THEN FALLING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT
BEFORE DECREASING. ELSEWHERE SOME CLOUDS LINGERING SO WENT ON THE
WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE. THE LOW MOVING FROM THE GULF COAST STATES
ON SUNDAY TO THE EAST COAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WILL
ONLY IMPACT THE AREA WITH A NORTHEAST FLOW THAT WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND WILL CAUSE SOME CLOUDS BUT NO
PRECIPITATION.
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A WEAK TROF
THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY. THE GFS IS A LITTLE FASTER
AND STRONGER THAN THE ECMWF. AT THIS TIME WITH THE UNCERTAINTY DID
NOT CHANGE ANYTHING FROM THE CURRENT FORECAST AND CONTINUED CHANCE
OF RAIN SHOWERS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BEGINNING MIDWEEK IN THE LONG TERM MODELS BEGIN SOMEWHAT SIMILAR IN
OVERALL PATTERN WITH LOW PRESSURE/TROUGH FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES TO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WOULD SET UP SOME WAA OVER THE
AREA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE. OVERALL THINKING
WEDNESDAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY WITH BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON.
BEYOND WEDNESDAY...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES IN
HANDLING LOWS AS THEY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. GFS QUICKLY BUILDS IN
THE NEXT LOW LATER THURSDAY WHILE ECMWF LINGERS COLDER CYCLONIC FLOW
OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY THE GFS BRINGS NEXT LOW INTO
THE AREA WHILE ECMWF SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. GIVEN SUCH
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AND CHANGES IN SOLUTIONS MADE ONLY SMALL
DEVIATIONS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WHILE CONTINUING TO MENTION
LOWER CHC POPS THROUGH MOST PERIODS.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF LAKE ERIE WILL MOVE EASTWARD TODAY.
ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL MOVE OVER LAKE ERIE LATER THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. SOME CLOUDS ACROSS EASTERN SITES EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ALLOWING FOR MAINLY SCT CLOUDS
FOR MOST SITES EXCEPT ERI. VFR CIGS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON ACROSS SITES AS UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY MOVES ACROSS LAKE ERIE. EXPECTING SITES TO REMAIN DRY WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF ERI WHERE THERE MAY BE SOME SNOW SHOWERS WITH
THIS IN THE AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 12KT OR SO EXPECTED
WITH GUSTS AROUND 20KT LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON...A BIT STRONGER AT
ERI.
LOW PRESSURE MOVES WELL EAST OF THE AREA BY THIS EVENING ALLOWING
FOR CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST. ERI WILL BE LAST TO SCATTER
OUT EARLY TONIGHT. WINDS SHIFTING NW TO NE OVERNIGHT. LEFT SOME
SCATTERED CLOUDS ACROSS SOME EASTERN SITES.
OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY. NON-VFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN WILL PUSH EASTWARD JUST
NORTH OF THE LAKE TODAY. THE COLD FRONT WITH THE LOW WILL CROSS THE
LAKE THROUGH TODAY SHIFTING SW WINDS TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST LATE
WHILE INCREASING WINDS. WILL KEEP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN PLACE
THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT WITH THE WNW WINDS AND 4 TO 5 FOOT WAVES.
HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES MORE DOMINATE ACROSS THE LAKE ON SUNDAY. NORTH
WINDS ON THE LAKE DON/T APPEAR TO BE AS STRONG AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT
WITH LOW PRESSURE TRACKING TO FAR SOUTH OF THE LAKE KEEPING THE
TIGHTER GRADIENT TO THE SOUTH. WITH THAT CONFIDENCE A BIT LOWER ON
NEED FOR A SMALL CRAFT ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LAKE MONDAY
KEEPING CONDITIONS QUIET...THEN SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS TUESDAY AHEAD
OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE/COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE. THERE
IS A CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. WEAK RIDGING EXPECTED OVER THE LAKE WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE NEXT
SYSTEM APPROACHES.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LEZ146>149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...ABE
MARINE...ABE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
633 AM EST SAT FEB 18 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW WILL MOVE FROM LOWER MICHIGAN TO WESTERN NEW YORK STATE
TODAY AND DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT AND CONTINUE IN CONTROL OF
OUR WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A LOW WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST JUST NORTH OF LAKE ERIE THIS
MORNING. SOME PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE LOW. THIS PRECIPITATION
IS LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS AND IT SHOULD MAINLY IMPACT THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH DAYBREAK. IT IS MOVING QUICKLY SO WILL ONLY
MENTION IT IN THE SNOW BELT AREAS. HOWEVER THE 05Z HRRR MODEL RUN
HAS MORE PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING AROUND DAYBREAK OVER EXTREME
NORTHERN OHIO AND NORTHWEST PA. NOTHING GOING ON OVER NORTHERN
INDIANA. SOME MINOR LAKE EFFECT/LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON FOR THE SNOW BELT. THIS IS THE TOUGH
PART OF THE FORECAST. THE RIDGE WILL TRY TO BUILD IN AND THE LAKE
AND 850 MB TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE WILL BE NEAR 11 OR 12C BY
EVENING. THE GFS MODEL SEEMS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THIS BASED
ON THE MOISTURE. ATTM WILL KEEP THE POPS 50% BUT GO WITH SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS AND UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATION...FROM
ASHTABULA COUNTY EAST. ELSEWHERE A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE AS
WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT FOR MORE CLOUDS TO MOVE BACK IN LATER TODAY
AFTER THE LOW MOVES EAST. USED A BLEND OF THE MOS GUIDANCE AS
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL COOL DOWN BEHIND THE LOW...HOWEVER...WITH
SOME SUNSHINE THIS TIME OF YEAR THAT WILL HELP KEEP THE
TEMPERATURES MORE STEADY THEN FALLING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT
BEFORE DECREASING. ELSEWHERE SOME CLOUDS LINGERING SO WENT ON THE
WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE. THE LOW MOVING FROM THE GULF COAST STATES
ON SUNDAY TO THE EAST COAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WILL
ONLY IMPACT THE AREA WITH A NORTHEAST FLOW THAT WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND WILL CAUSE SOME CLOUDS BUT NO
PRECIPITATION.
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A WEAK TROF
THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY. THE GFS IS A LITTLE FASTER
AND STRONGER THAN THE ECMWF. AT THIS TIME WITH THE UNCERTAINTY DID
NOT CHANGE ANYTHING FROM THE CURRENT FORECAST AND CONTINUED CHANCE
OF RAIN SHOWERS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BEGINNING MIDWEEK IN THE LONG TERM MODELS BEGIN SOMEWHAT SIMILAR IN
OVERALL PATTERN WITH LOW PRESSURE/TROUGH FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES TO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WOULD SET UP SOME WAA OVER THE
AREA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE. OVERALL THINKING
WEDNESDAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY WITH BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON.
BEYOND WEDNESDAY...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES IN
HANDLING LOWS AS THEY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. GFS QUICKLY BUILDS IN
THE NEXT LOW LATER THURSDAY WHILE ECMWF LINGERS COLDER CYCLONIC FLOW
OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY THE GFS BRINGS NEXT LOW INTO
THE AREA WHILE ECMWF SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. GIVEN SUCH
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AND CHANGES IN SOLUTIONS MADE ONLY SMALL
DEVIATIONS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WHILE CONTINUING TO MENTION
LOWER CHC POPS THROUGH MOST PERIODS.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF LAKE ERIE WILL MOVE EASTWARD TODAY.
ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL MOVE OVER LAKE ERIE LATER THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. SOME CLOUDS ACROSS EASTERN SITES EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ALLOWING FOR MAINLY SCT CLOUDS
FOR MOST SITES EXCEPT ERI. VFR CIGS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON ACROSS SITES AS UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY MOVES ACROSS LAKE ERIE. EXPECTING SITES TO REMAIN DRY WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF ERI WHERE THERE MAY BE SOME SNOW SHOWERS WITH
THIS IN THE AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 12KT OR SO EXPECTED
WITH GUSTS AROUND 20KT LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON...A BIT STRONGER AT
ERI.
LOW PRESSURE MOVES WELL EAST OF THE AREA BY THIS EVENING ALLOWING
FOR CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST. ERI WILL BE LAST TO SCATTER
OUT EARLY TONIGHT. WINDS SHIFTING NW TO NE OVERNIGHT. LEFT SOME
SCATTERED CLOUDS ACROSS SOME EASTERN SITES.
OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY. NON-VFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN WILL PUSH EASTWARD JUST
NORTH OF THE LAKE TODAY. THE COLD FRONT WITH THE LOW WILL CROSS THE
LAKE THROUGH TODAY SHIFTING SW WINDS TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST LATE
WHILE INCREASING WINDS. WILL KEEP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN PLACE
THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT WITH THE WNW WINDS AND 4 TO 5 FOOT WAVES.
HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES MORE DOMINATE ACROSS THE LAKE ON SUNDAY. NORTH
WINDS ON THE LAKE DON/T APPEAR TO BE AS STRONG AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT
WITH LOW PRESSURE TRACKING TO FAR SOUTH OF THE LAKE KEEPING THE
TIGHTER GRADIENT TO THE SOUTH. WITH THAT CONFIDENCE A BIT LOWER ON
NEED FOR A SMALL CRAFT ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LAKE MONDAY
KEEPING CONDITIONS QUIET...THEN SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS TUESDAY AHEAD
OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE/COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE. THERE
IS A CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. WEAK RIDGING EXPECTED OVER THE LAKE WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE NEXT
SYSTEM APPROACHES.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LEZ146>149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...ABE
MARINE...ABE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
403 AM EST SAT FEB 18 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW WILL MOVE FROM LOWER MICHIGAN TO WESTERN NEW YORK STATE
TODAY AND DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT AND CONTINUE IN CONTROL OF
OUR WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A LOW WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST JUST NORTH OF LAKE ERIE THIS
MORNING. SOME PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE LOW. THIS PRECIPITATION
IS LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS AND IT SHOULD MAINLY IMPACT THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH DAYBREAK. IT IS MOVING QUICKLY SO WILL ONLY
MENTION IT IN THE SNOW BELT AREAS. HOWEVER THE 05Z HRRR MODEL RUN
HAS MORE PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING AROUND DAYBREAK OVER EXTREME
NORTHERN OHIO AND NORTHWEST PA. NOTHING GOING ON OVER NORTHERN
INDIANA. SOME MINOR LAKE EFFECT/LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON FOR THE SNOW BELT. THIS IS THE TOUGH
PART OF THE FORECAST. THE RIDGE WILL TRY TO BUILD IN AND THE LAKE
AND 850 MB TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE WILL BE NEAR 11 OR 12C BY
EVENING. THE GFS MODEL SEEMS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THIS BASED
ON THE MOISTURE. ATTM WILL KEEP THE POPS 50% BUT GO WITH SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS AND UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATION...FROM
ASHTABULA COUNTY EAST. ELSEWHERE A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE AS
WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT FOR MORE CLOUDS TO MOVE BACK IN LATER TODAY
AFTER THE LOW MOVES EAST. USED A BLEND OF THE MOS GUIDANCE AS
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL COOL DOWN BEHIND THE LOW...HOWEVER...WITH
SOME SUNSHINE THIS TIME OF YEAR THAT WILL HELP KEEP THE
TEMPERATURES MORE STEADY THEN FALLING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT
BEFORE DECREASING. ELSEWHERE SOME CLOUDS LINGERING SO WENT ON THE
WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE. THE LOW MOVING FROM THE GULF COAST STATES
ON SUNDAY TO THE EAST COAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WILL
ONLY IMPACT THE AREA WITH A NORTHEAST FLOW THAT WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND WILL CAUSE SOME CLOUDS BUT NO
PRECIPITATION.
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A WEAK TROF
THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY. THE GFS IS A LITTLE FASTER
AND STRONGER THAN THE ECMWF. AT THIS TIME WITH THE UNCERTAINTY DID
NOT CHANGE ANYTHING FROM THE CURRENT FORECAST AND CONTINUED CHANCE
OF RAIN SHOWERS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BEGINNING MIDWEEK IN THE LONG TERM MODELS BEGIN SOMEWHAT SIMILAR IN
OVERALL PATTERN WITH LOW PRESSURE/TROUGH FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES TO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WOULD SET UP SOME WAA OVER THE
AREA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE. OVERALL THINKING
WEDNESDAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY WITH BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON.
BEYOND WEDNESDAY...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES IN
HANDLING LOWS AS THEY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. GFS QUICKLY BUILDS IN
THE NEXT LOW LATER THURSDAY WHILE ECMWF LINGERS COLDER CYCLONIC FLOW
OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY THE GFS BRINGS NEXT LOW INTO
THE AREA WHILE ECMWF SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. GIVEN SUCH
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AND CHANGES IN SOLUTIONS MADE ONLY SMALL
DEVIATIONS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WHILE CONTINUING TO MENTION
LOWER CHC POPS THROUGH MOST PERIODS.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CLOUDS QUICKLY SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT
COLD FRONT. AIR MASS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY HARDLY ANY COLDER THAN
THE AIR MASS IN FRONT. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING WITH IT SOME
MOISTURE TO PRODUCE CLOUD COVER OVER THE FORECAST AREA THAT SHOULD
REMAIN VFR. EXCEPTION WILL BE IN ERIE WHERE LAKE ERIE WILL LIKELY
SUPPLY SOME MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SOME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE
MORNING. CEILINGS WILL DIP TO AROUND 1500 FEET AS WELL. MODELS
SUGGEST SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AROUND 5000 FEET THAT WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS SHIFT FROM SOUTH
SOUTHWEST TO MORE WESTERLY AFTER THE BOUNDARY PASSES. WE WILL
ALSO SEE AN INCREASE IN THE WINDS TOWARD MORNING WITH AVERAGE
WINDS AROUND 12 KNOTS EXPECTED.
OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY. NON-VFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN WILL PUSH EASTWARD JUST
NORTH OF THE LAKE TODAY. THE COLD FRONT WITH THE LOW WILL CROSS THE
LAKE THROUGH TODAY SHIFTING SW WINDS TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST LATE
WHILE INCREASING WINDS. WILL KEEP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN PLACE
THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT WITH THE WNW WINDS AND 4 TO 5 FOOT WAVES.
HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES MORE DOMINATE ACROSS THE LAKE ON SUNDAY. NORTH
WINDS ON THE LAKE DON/T APPEAR TO BE AS STRONG AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT
WITH LOW PRESSURE TRACKING TO FAR SOUTH OF THE LAKE KEEPING THE
TIGHTER GRADIENT TO THE SOUTH. WITH THAT CONFIDENCE A BIT LOWER ON
NEED FOR A SMALL CRAFT ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LAKE MONDAY
KEEPING CONDITIONS QUIET...THEN SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS TUESDAY AHEAD
OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE/COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE. THERE
IS A CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. WEAK RIDGING EXPECTED OVER THE LAKE WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE NEXT
SYSTEM APPROACHES.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY
FOR LEZ146>149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...ABE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ABERDEEN SD
854 PM CST SUN FEB 19 2012
.UPDATE...
ECHOES ALREADY BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ON AREA RADARS LATE THIS
EVENING. THESE WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND AND INCREASE IN INTENSITY
THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL SHOWS SNOW DEVELOPING IN
PIERRE BY 3 AM OR SO AND SPREADING NORTHEAST TO ABERDEEN BY 7 AM.
CURRENT FORECAST SHOWS THIS WELL IN THE GRIDS. THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY LOOKS GOOD.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS PRECIPITATION TYPE/CHANGEOVER TIME-FRAME.
MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINNING TO COME SOMEWHAT MORE IN LINE WITH EACH
OTHER REGARDING PRECIPITATION TYPE. WET BULB ZERO TEMPS ARE COLD IN
ADDITION...MOST MODELS FARTHER WEST WITH PRECIPITATION/SNOW AS A
STRONG MID-LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE SETS UP JUST EAST OF THE MO
RIVER MONDAY MORNING...SLIDING EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. ISSUED
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ZONES EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER GIVEN
GOOD QPF AGREEMENT AND MOST MODELS COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW WEST
OF U.S. HIGHWAY 83 THROUGH AROUND 18Z. FAIRLY DEEP ISOTHERMAL
LAYER FROM THE SFC TO ABOUT H85 MAKING THIS SNOW ACCUMULATION
FORECASTS QUITE THE CHALLENGE. IF SNOW INTENSITY IS NOT SUFFICIENT...SOME
AREAS MAY SEE SNOW FALLING THROUGH THE DAY BUT LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF ACCUMULATION. OTHER LOCATIONS COULD BE A RAIN/SNOW MIX DURING
THE AFTERNOON OR A SNOW/SLEET MIX DURING THE MORNING...CUTTING
DOWN ON ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS. EITHER WAY...STILL LOOKS LIKE
ACCUMULATING SNOWS FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY WITH BRIEF HEAVY SNOW A POSSIBILITY ALONG A LARGE
SNOW BAND ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONGEST AREA OF MID-LEVEL
DEFORMATION/STRETCHING. SNOW SLIDES EAST OF THE REGION MONDAY
EVENING...WITH A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MOVING IN. A WEAK
CLIPPER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL BRING SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT
SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT AS ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A 135 KT JET NOSES
INTO WRN SD.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
FAIRLY POTENT CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE SLIDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS IN A BIT BETTER
AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW AND THERMAL PROFILES. HAVE
THEREFORE INCREASED POPS A BIT FROM INHERITED GUIDANCE...MAINLY
ACROSS WESTERN CWA. RATHER MILD AIR MOVES IN WITH THIS SYSTEM SO
PRECIP MAY VERY WELL BE ALL RAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
CWA. AS THE COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT PRECIP EXPECTED TO CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW. MODELS
INDICATING A BAND OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL SETTING UP SOMEWHERE
ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHICH COULD ADD UP TO A COUPLE
INCHES. ANOTHER SYSTEM SLIDING SOUTH THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
EVENING WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOWFALL. COLDER AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE SO EXPECTING PRIMARILY SNOWFALL WITH
THIS SYSTEM. MODELS NOT GIVING MUCH QPF WITH THIS WAVE DUE TO LACK
OF FORCING...BUT REGARDLESS...STILL LOOKS LIKE A CHANCE FOR LIGHT
SNOWFALL WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. MODELS ARE SHOWING A MUCH
STRONGER SYSTEM FOR NEXT WEEKEND BUT MANY DIFFERENCES IN MODELS AS
EXPECTED BEING THIS IS STILL A WEEK AWAY. BASICALLY LEFT GUIDANCE
POPS IN THE GRIDS FOR THIS SYSTEM UNTIL BETTER AGREEMENT IS
REACHED IN THE COMING DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS
VFR MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LOWER AND BECOME MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS THROUGH THE NIGHT AS STRONG LIFT FROM A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVES IN. EXPECT WIDESPREAD SNOW TO DEVELOP FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SNOW IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT
ALL TERMINALS WITH VISIBILITIES DOWN TO A HALF MILE AT TIMES. THE
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY ALONG WITH
IFR/MVFR CEILINGS.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR BUFFALO-
CAMPBELL-EDMUNDS-FAULK-HAND-HUGHES-HYDE-JONES-LYMAN-
MCPHERSON-POTTER-SULLY-WALWORTH.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR BROWN-
CLARK-CODINGTON-DAY-DEUEL-GRANT-HAMLIN-MARSHALL-ROBERTS-
SPINK.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR BIG
STONE-TRAVERSE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...CHURCH
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...MOHR
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
155 AM PST MON FEB 20 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE THIS WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES
INCREASING AFTER A SLIGHT EARLY COOLING TREND WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
DRY FRONT TODAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...RADAR SHOWS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION NOW APPROACHING MERCED COUNTY AS IT RACES TO THE
SOUTHEAST. NOT MUCH REACHING THE GROUND WITH SACRAMENTO JUST
TRACING THUS FAR AND I EXPECT IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS JUST TRACE
AMOUNTS WILL FALL. OVER THE SIERRA HOWEVER A FEW HUNDREDTHS MAY
FALL BEFORE THE FRONT EXITS THE REGION. THE LATEST RUC13 MODEL
SHOWS A COUPLE OF HUNDREDTHS OVER THE SIERRA THIS MORNING THEN
DRYING OUT. THE TROUGH IS THEN PROGGED TO QUICKLY MOVE INTO
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THEN A CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST TO FORM WEST
OF SAN DIEGO. MODELS ARE THEN IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN PUSHING A
RIDGE AXIS ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA FROM TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN
KEEPING THIS FEATURE IN PLACE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. GIVEN THIS,
DRY AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE THE MAIN WEATHER
FEATURES IN THIS VERY DRY WINTER. FOR NEXT WEEKEND, THE GFS AND
ECMWF MODELS CANNOT PRODUCE A CONSISTENT OR AGREEABLE SOLUTION
AFTER THE RIDGE PATTERN BREAKS DOWN. THE LATEST ECMWF MODEL AFTER
SEVERAL RUNS OF A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN NOW BRINGS A DEEP
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE INTO THE WEST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
WHILE THE GFS SUGGESTS A MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED TROUGH PASSAGE WELL
TO THE EAST. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...
LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS OVER THE SOUTHERN
SIERRA NEVADA WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE BTWN 18Z SUN - 06Z
TUES. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITION ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
INTERIOR THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...DUDLEY
AVN/FW...DCH
SYNOPSIS...PJ
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
1003 PM MST SUN FEB 19 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1003 PM MST SUN FEB 19 2012
ADDED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR STEAMBOAT SPRINGS AND SURROUNDING
AREAS. REPORT CAME IN OF AMOUNTS JUST OVER 6 INCHES. AS TROUGH
SWEEPS THROUGH...EXPECT SNOW TO CONTINUE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 917 PM MST SUN FEB 19 2012
RUC13 SHOWED DOWNSLOPE FLOW OFF THE EASTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH EARLIER THIS EVENING. DYNAMICS WANING ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM AS EVIDENCED BY LACK OF ACTIVITY OVER
THE EASTERN UINTA BASIN. THEREFORE...DROPPED WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY OVER THE AREA. DRIER AIR HAD BEGUN TO WRAP INTO THE
REMAINDER OF EASTERN UTAH AND LOWERED POPS OVER THE VALLEYS TO
REFLECT THIS. AS EXPECTED...FRONTAL PASSAGE BROUGHT A RESURGENCE
OF SNOWFALL OVER CORTEZ WHICH WAS DOWN TO 1/2 MILE IN MODERATE
SNOW AT 04Z. EXPECT SNOW TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST INTO THE
DURANGO AREA AND WILL LET ADVISORIES FOR THOSE AREAS CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EXPIRATION TIME OF 07Z. OROGRAPHICS AND INSTABILITY
OVER THE MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SNOW...SO WILL LET
ADVISORIES CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT IN FAVORABLE WEST AND
NORTHWEST FLOW.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 336 PM MST SUN FEB 19 2012
LATEST SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATED ENERGY AND MOISTURE FOCUSED
OVER SOUTHWEST COLORADO THROUGH THIS EVENING. SNOWFALL WAS ALREADY
PERSISTENT AND HEAVY AT TIMES FROM KCEZ TO KDRO AND RUC13 AND
NAM12 INDICATED THAT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. BASED
UPON AMOUNTS ALREADY REPORTED IN CONJUNCTION WITH AREA WEB CAMS...
FELT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY SHOULD BE ADDED TO THOSE AREAS FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 150 PM MST SUN FEB 19 2012
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE DEEPENING SHORTWAVE WHICH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. GOOD Q-G FORCING AND ADEQUATE MOISTURE
OVERNIGHT WILL COMBINE TO GENERATE GOOD SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS
MOST MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS AND NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VALLEYS. MODELS
ARE ALSO SHOWING FAIRLY UNSTABLE LAPSE RATES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING WHICH WILL AID IN PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION AND MAY
GENERATE SOME ISOLATED LIGHTNING OVER SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. BEHIND THE FRONT NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DOMINATE
OVERNIGHT WITH NORTH TO WEST ASPECTS SEEING THE BEST
ACCUMULATIONS WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING INTO THE FAVORABLE
DENDRITIC GROWTH TEMPERATURE RANGE. HAVE DECIDED TO ADD DEBEQUE TO SILT
CORRIDOR INCLUDING THE PLATEAU VALLEY TO THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT. MODELS ARE HITTING THE GRAND MESA AREA
THE HARDEST...LATER SHIFTS NEED TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL UPGRADE
OF HIGHLIGHTS. EXPECT SNOWFALL TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE LOWER VALLEY AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND END ACROSS MOUNTAIN
LOCATIONS MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...OTHERWISE COLD
TEMPERATURES WITH CLEARING SKIES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY.
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 150 PM MST SUN FEB 19 2012
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UPPER RIDGE OFF THE WEST COAST WITH AN
ASSOCIATED DOWNSTREAM TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL STATES
THIS WEEK FOR GENERALLY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. AN EMBEDDED WAVE ZIPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FOR A CHANCE OF PRECIP. THE NORTHERN
STREAM JET NOSES INTO NORTHERN CO TUE NIGHT...AND THEN VACILLATES
BETWEEN WY AND CO THROUGH FRIDAY WHEN IT MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. THIS
PATTERN SHOULD KEEP A PERSISTENT CHANCE OF SNOW FOR THE NORTHERN CO
MTNS THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH THE BETTER CHANCES CURRENTLY LOOKING LIKE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN LATE WED NIGHT-THU. THESE ARE THE TIMES WHEN
THE MODELS SHOW THE UPPER JET OVER NRN CO FOR ADDITIONAL FORCING ON
TOP OF THE NORTHWEST OROGRAPHICS. THE CENTRAL MTNS WILL HAVE A
LESSER CHANCE. MUCH OF EASTERN UT AND SOUTHWEST CO...IN CONTRAST...
SHOULD EXPERIENCE LITTLE OR NO PRECIP WITH CLEAR OR PARTLY SKIES AND
SEASONABLE TEMPS TUE THROUGH SAT.
THIS COULD BE AN INTERESTING WEEK FOR THE NORTHERN CO MTNS...FROM VAIL
NORTHWARD TO THE ELKHEAD AND PARK MTNS. THIS PATTERN OF PERSISTENT
MOIST NW FLOW COULD LEAD TO AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SNOW FOR THE NRN
MTNS. WHILE SNOWFALL MAY NOT BE PARTICULARLY HEAVY FOR ANY
PARTICULAR PERIOD...OVER TIME SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE
POSSIBLE. ADD TO THAT SOME GUSTY W TO NW MOUNTAIN WINDS AT TIMES AS
THE JET WAVERS IN AND OUT OF NORTHERN CO.
A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN CONTINUES NEXT WEEK WHEN ANOTHER PACIFIC TROUGH
WORKING INLAND ON SAT AND LOOKS TO CROSS ERN UT/WRN CO ABOUT
SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 03Z TAFS THROUGH 03Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 917 PM MST SUN FEB 19 2012
THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF WESTERN COLORADO THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS
TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT EXPECT GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS FROM 15
TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...
ESPECIALLY ON NORTH-FACING SLOPES AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND DECREASE BEHIND THE FRONT. GUSTY WINDS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN MODERATE MECHANICAL TURBULENCE
IN THE VICINITY OF MOUNTAINS. SNOW WILL REMAIN WIDESPREAD ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT RESULTING IN EXTENSIVE OBSCURATION. LOWER
ELEVATION AIRPORTS ARE LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE MVFR CONDITIONS WITH
AREAS OF IFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. MOUNTAIN AIRPORTS WILL SEE
WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH SNOW DIMINISHING MONDAY
MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON
...THOUGH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVER THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE DURING THE AFTERNOON RESULTING IN LOCALIZED MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MST MONDAY FOR COZ001>005-007-
009-010-012-013-017>019-023.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT FOR COZ021-
022.
UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MST MONDAY FOR UTZ023-025.
&&
$$
UPDATE...NL
SHORT TERM...MPM
LONG TERM....JAD
AVIATION...NL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
917 PM MST SUN FEB 19 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 917 PM MST SUN FEB 19 2012
RUC13 SHOWED DOWNSLOPE FLOW OFF THE EASTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH EARLIER THIS EVENING. DYNAMICS WANING ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM AS EVIDENCED BY LACK OF ACTIVITY OVER
THE EASTERN UINTA BASIN. THEREFORE...DROPPED WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY OVER THE AREA. DRIER AIR HAD BEGUN TO WRAP INTO THE
REMAINDER OF EASTERN UTAH AND LOWERED POPS OVER THE VALLEYS TO
REFLECT THIS. AS EXPECTED...FRONTAL PASSAGE BROUGHT A RESURGENCE
OF SNOWFALL OVER CORTEZ WHICH WAS DOWN TO 1/2 MILE IN MODERATE
SNOW AT 04Z. EXPECT SNOW TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST INTO THE
DURANGO AREA AND WILL LET ADVISORIES FOR THOSE AREAS CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EXPIRATION TIME OF 07Z. OROGRAPHICS AND INSTABILITY
OVER THE MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SNOW...SO WILL LET
ADVISORIES CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT IN FAVORABLE WEST AND
NORTHWEST FLOW.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 336 PM MST SUN FEB 19 2012
LATEST SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATED ENERGY AND MOISTURE FOCUSED
OVER SOUTHWEST COLORADO THROUGH THIS EVENING. SNOWFALL WAS ALREADY
PERSISTENT AND HEAVY AT TIMES FROM KCEZ TO KDRO AND RUC13 AND
NAM12 INDICATED THAT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. BASED
UPON AMOUNTS ALREADY REPORTED IN CONJUNCTION WITH AREA WEB CAMS...
FELT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY SHOULD BE ADDED TO THOSE AREAS FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 150 PM MST SUN FEB 19 2012
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE DEEPENING SHORTWAVE WHICH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. GOOD Q-G FORCING AND ADEQUATE MOISTURE
OVERNIGHT WILL COMBINE TO GENERATE GOOD SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS
MOST MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS AND NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VALLEYS. MODELS
ARE ALSO SHOWING FAIRLY UNSTABLE LAPSE RATES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING WHICH WILL AID IN PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION AND MAY
GENERATE SOME ISOLATED LIGHTNING OVER SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. BEHIND THE FRONT NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DOMINATE
OVERNIGHT WITH NORTH TO WEST ASPECTS SEEING THE BEST
ACCUMULATIONS WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING INTO THE FAVORABLE
DENDRITIC GROWTH TEMPERATURE RANGE. HAVE DECIDED TO ADD DEBEQUE TO SILT
CORRIDOR INCLUDING THE PLATEAU VALLEY TO THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT. MODELS ARE HITTING THE GRAND MESA AREA
THE HARDEST...LATER SHIFTS NEED TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL UPGRADE
OF HIGHLIGHTS. EXPECT SNOWFALL TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE LOWER VALLEY AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND END ACROSS MOUNTAIN
LOCATIONS MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...OTHERWISE COLD
TEMPERATURES WITH CLEARING SKIES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY.
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 150 PM MST SUN FEB 19 2012
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UPPER RIDGE OFF THE WEST COAST WITH AN
ASSOCIATED DOWNSTREAM TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL STATES
THIS WEEK FOR GENERALLY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. AN EMBEDDED WAVE ZIPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FOR A CHANCE OF PRECIP. THE NORTHERN
STREAM JET NOSES INTO NORTHERN CO TUE NIGHT...AND THEN VACILLATES
BETWEEN WY AND CO THROUGH FRIDAY WHEN IT MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. THIS
PATTERN SHOULD KEEP A PERSISTENT CHANCE OF SNOW FOR THE NORTHERN CO
MTNS THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH THE BETTER CHANCES CURRENTLY LOOKING LIKE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN LATE WED NIGHT-THU. THESE ARE THE TIMES WHEN
THE MODELS SHOW THE UPPER JET OVER NRN CO FOR ADDITIONAL FORCING ON
TOP OF THE NORTHWEST OROGRAPHICS. THE CENTRAL MTNS WILL HAVE A
LESSER CHANCE. MUCH OF EASTERN UT AND SOUTHWEST CO...IN CONTRAST...
SHOULD EXPERIENCE LITTLE OR NO PRECIP WITH CLEAR OR PARTLY SKIES AND
SEASONABLE TEMPS TUE THROUGH SAT.
THIS COULD BE AN INTERESTING WEEK FOR THE NORTHERN CO MTNS...FROM VAIL
NORTHWARD TO THE ELKHEAD AND PARK MTNS. THIS PATTERN OF PERSISTENT
MOIST NW FLOW COULD LEAD TO AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SNOW FOR THE NRN
MTNS. WHILE SNOWFALL MAY NOT BE PARTICULARLY HEAVY FOR ANY
PARTICULAR PERIOD...OVER TIME SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE
POSSIBLE. ADD TO THAT SOME GUSTY W TO NW MOUNTAIN WINDS AT TIMES AS
THE JET WAVERS IN AND OUT OF NORTHERN CO.
A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN CONTINUES NEXT WEEK WHEN ANOTHER PACIFIC TROUGH
WORKING INLAND ON SAT AND LOOKS TO CROSS ERN UT/WRN CO ABOUT
SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 03Z TAFS THROUGH 03Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 917 PM MST SUN FEB 19 2012
THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF WESTERN COLORADO THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS
TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT EXPECT GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS FROM 15
TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...
ESPECIALLY ON NORTH-FACING SLOPES AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND DECREASE BEHIND THE FRONT. GUSTY WINDS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN MODERATE MECHANICAL TURBULENCE
IN THE VICINITY OF MOUNTAINS. SNOW WILL REMAIN WIDESPREAD ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT RESULTING IN EXTENSIVE OBSCURATION. LOWER
ELEVATION AIRPORTS ARE LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE MVFR CONDITIONS WITH
AREAS OF IFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. MOUNTAIN AIRPORTS WILL SEE
WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH SNOW DIMINISHING MONDAY
MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON
...THOUGH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVER THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE DURING THE AFTERNOON RESULTING IN LOCALIZED MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MST MONDAY FOR COZ001>004-007-
009-010-012-013-017>019-023.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT FOR COZ021-
022.
UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MST MONDAY FOR UTZ023-025.
&&
$$
UPDATE...NL
SHORT TERM...MPM
LONG TERM....JAD
AVIATION...NL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
339 AM CST MON FEB 20 2012
.DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN/CHALLENGE IS PRECIPITATION AND WINDS TODAY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS KANSAS.
SYNOPSIS:
A DEEP TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS THIS MORNING AND
WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER SYSTEM IMPACTING THE AREA TODAY. AT THE
SURFACE A LOW IS DEEPENING IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WITH STRONG
SOUTHERLY GRADIENT WINDS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AHEAD OF THE LOW.
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME.
TODAY - TONIGHT:
THIS WILL BE THE TRICKIEST PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. THE SURFACE LOW
WILL TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TODAY. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP LOW WILL CAUSE WINDS TO HOWL
ACROSS THE AREA. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE STRONG DURING THE DAY WITH
WARM AIR ADVECTION AND HAVE KEPT THE CURRENT WIND ADVISORY IN
PLACE. HOWEVER...DID ADD RUSSELL AND BARTON COUNTIES TO THE
ADVISORY WITH THE CONCERN ABOUT STRONG WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS JUST AS STRONG AND DESPITE THE FACT THAT IT
WILL BE MOVING THROUGH NEAR TO AFTER SUNSET THE GRADIENT WINDS WILL
KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED. SO HAVE ALSO EXTENDED THE ADVISORY
TIME FROM UNTIL 06Z. THE ONE WIND ADVISORY WILL COVER BOTH THE
STRONG SOUTH WINDS AND STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AS WE DECIDED TO KEEP
ONE ADVISORY INSTEAD OF TRYING TO SEPARATE IT AND CONFUSE PEOPLE.
BOTTOM LINE IT IS GOING TO BE VERY WINDY TODAY.
THE NEXT MAIN CHALLENGE IS THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY. AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS AND THE HRRR HAS HAD A REALLY GOOD HANDLE ON
IT SINCE THE 03/04Z RUN. THE LATER HRRR RUNS ARE SOMEWHAT IN LINE
WITH WHAT THE NAM HINTS AT...KEEPING THE MAIN PRECIPITATION SHOW
LATER IN THE DAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN KANSAS. THE 06Z/HRRR
ALBEIT A LITTLE BULLISH ON THE INTENSITY SHOWS THE LINE OF
PRECIPITATION MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH THE
WARM AIR ADVECTION/MOISTURE TRANSPORT. THEN AFTER IT MOVES THROUGH
IT KEEPS THE FORECAST DRY UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON...MUCH LIKE THE
NAM IS SHOWING. HAVE TRIED TO TREND THAT WAY WITH POPS...DECREASING
THEM EARLIER IN THE DAY AND INCREASING THEM TOWARD THE AFTERNOON.
THE NAM ALSO INDICATES THAT THE DRYSLOT WILL TRY TO MOVE INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS WILL HELP TEMPERATURES AND THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL AS THE COLD FRONT/DRY LINE MOVES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
LOW LEVEL ML AND MU CAPE INDICATE ABOUT 500-1000 J/KG POSSIBLE
AROUND 21Z ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THE POSSIBILITY FOR LOW
TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS AND POSSIBLY SOME ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. SEVERE HAIL AND WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN A
FEW ISOLATED EVENTS...BUT WIDESPREAD SEVERE ACTIVITY IS NOT
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
TUESDAY - WEDNESDAY:
THE PATTERN CALMS SOME AFTER TODAY DESPITE A COUPLE MORE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS. HOWEVER THE MAIN ENERGY WILL STAY NORTH
WHICH WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR. THE COLD FRONT TODAY WILL SWEEP
ALL MOISTURE SOUTHWARD KEEPING IT DRY. LOW LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS
WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA BOTH DAYS AND ALTHOUGH THEY WILL NOT
BE SUPER STRONG...10-15 MPH WINDS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DOWNSLOPE
WILL HELP TEMPERATURES WARM TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL. INCREASED
TEMPERATURES BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BUT MORE DRASTICALLY
WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
AREA.
THURSDAY - FRIDAY:
BY THURSDAY THE NEXT FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE KEPT
THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW...BUT THE LATEST 00Z/ECMWF DOES HINT AT THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME PRECIPITATION. CONFIDENCE IS LOW OF ANY
PRECIPITATION WITH THE LACK OF ANY RETURN FLOW DURING THE WEEK. THE
FRONT WILL AT THE MINIMUM SHIFT THE WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST AND LOWER
TEMPERATURES BACK NEARER TO NORMAL...IN THE UPPER 40S.
SATURDAY - SUNDAY:
THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS BEGINS TO DIVERGE BY THE END OF
THE WEEK. AFTER THE WAVE THAT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY...THEY INDICATE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WITH THE NEXT WAVE MOVING IN BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM
DIVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE GUIDANCE DOES SHOW A POTENT
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY...BEYOND THIS
FORECAST...BUT BECAUSE OF THE DRASTIC DIFFERENCES IN TIMING...HAVE
KEPT THE FORECAST DRY AND TEMPERATURES AT MODEL CONSENSUS WHICH IS
IN THE LOW 50S. STAY TUNED AS THE FORECAST EVOLVE.
BILLINGS
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER WILL BE A CONCERN TODAY ACROSS THE WHOLE AREA WITH THE
GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER INDEX REACHING INTO VERY HIGH AND APPROACHING
EXTREME OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE VERY
STRONG THROUGHOUT THE DAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE HAVE A WIND
ADVISORY IN EFFECT WHICH MEANS THAT WINDS WILL BE SUSTAINED AROUND
30 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH. WINDS WILL THEN SWITCH TO THE
NORTHWEST AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND WILL THEN BE 30-35 MPH WITH
GUSTS NEAR 40-45 MPH. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT THE WINDS WILL CAUSE ANY FIRE THAT STARTS
TO QUICKLY BECOME DANGEROUS.
BILLINGS
&&
.AVIATION...06Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
AS HAS BEEN THE CASE OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF WEEKS...MODELS STRUGGLED
WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. 0000 UTC RUNS LOOK A BIT BETTER THAN THE
18Z ONES...ESPECIALLY WITH RUC/NAM/HRRR BEING MORE GENEROUS WITH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS TRANSLATES TO EARLIER/MORE EXTENSIVE
CLOUDS...WITH VERY HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF MVFR AND SOME CHANCE OF IFR
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY AT KRSL/KHUT. PRECIPITATION TIMING IS A
BIT UNCERTAIN...WITH ONE DECENT IMPULSE MOVING THROUGH IN A FEW
HOURS PER WATER VAPOR LOOP...AND THEN MORE ASSOCIATED WITH
FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE/SPEED MAXIMUM AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH. SO
SUSPECT ISOLATED/SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL REDEVELOP/LINGER INTO
LATE MORNING AT KSLN/KHUT/KICT. PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT KCNU LOOK
A BIT LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME. DRY SLOT WILL WORK ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH LOW CLOUDS/GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE EVENING. -HOWERTON
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 56 28 58 34 / 60 20 0 0
HUTCHINSON 55 28 58 34 / 50 20 0 0
NEWTON 54 29 57 35 / 60 20 0 0
ELDORADO 57 30 57 34 / 60 20 0 0
WINFIELD-KWLD 57 29 59 34 / 60 20 0 0
RUSSELL 56 27 57 33 / 50 20 0 10
GREAT BEND 56 26 57 33 / 50 20 0 10
SALINA 55 28 59 34 / 60 30 0 0
MCPHERSON 55 28 59 34 / 60 20 0 0
COFFEYVILLE 60 33 59 36 / 60 40 10 10
CHANUTE 55 33 58 35 / 60 50 10 0
IOLA 55 32 58 36 / 60 50 10 0
PARSONS-KPPF 58 33 59 34 / 60 40 10 10
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
KSZ032-033-047>053-067>070-082-083-091>094-098.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1224 AM EST MON FEB 20 2012
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM EST SUN FEB 19 2012
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW WNW FLOW ALF OVER
THE UPR LKS BTWN TROF IN QUEBEC AND UPR RDG MOVING E THRU THE
PLAINS. SFC HI PRES RDG IS ORIENTED FM LOWER MI INTO SRN WI...
BRINGING QUIET DAY TO THE CWA. EXCEPT FOR LINGERING SC E OF ERY
TOWARD BACK EDGE OF SLOWLY DEPARTING H925 THERMAL TROF/A BIT MORE
LLVL MSTR SHOWN ON THE 12Z APX RAOB...SKIES ARE GENERALLY SUNNY OVER
THE CWA AS 12Z GRB/MPX/INL RAOBS DEPICT A DRY AIRMASS WITH PWAT 0.15
TO 0.20 INCH. THERE IS A SHRTWV DROPPING ESEWD OVER THE UPR LKS...
BUT ONLY SOME HI CLDS MARK THE PRESENCE OF THIS FEATURE WITH DRY LO/
MID LVLS PRESENT. ALTHOUGH MIN TEMPS THIS MRNG FELL BLO ZERO AT A
NUMBER OF INTERIOR LOCATIONS...THE BRIGHT SUNSHINE HAS HELPED THE
MERCURY RECOVER TO WELL ABV NORMAL LEVELS THIS AFTN. FARTHER TO THE
W...THERE IS A TROF IN THE ROCKIES. QUITE A BIT OF HI CLDS ARE
STREAMING NEWD THRU THE PLAINS TOWARD MN IN THE SW FLOW ALF AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE TEMPS WITH HI PRES RDG
EXPECTED TO DOMINATE.
TNGT...UPR RDG IS FCST TO BUILD OVHD TNGT WITH DRY AIRMASS STILL
DOMINATING. ANY LINGERING LO CLDS OVER THE FAR ERN CWA SHOULD BE
GONE BY FCST ISSUANCE WITH WLY FLOW/WARMING AND DRYING AT H925.
EXPECT THE LOWEST MIN TEMPS AOB THE LO END OF GUIDANCE OVER THE
INTERIOR E AND SCNTRL UNDER WEAKER PRES GRADIENT/LIGHTER SW FLOW
ARND HI PRES CENTERED OVER LOWER MI. ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG IN THESE
AREAS OVER THE E WHERE SFC DEWPTS REMAIN FAIRLY HI AOA 20. A BIT
STRONGER SW FLOW OVER THE NW HALF AND THE ARRIVAL OF SOME HI CLDS
AHEAD OF THE SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE ROCKIES TROF WL LIMIT THE DIURNAL
FALL OF TEMP IN THAT AREA A BIT.
MON...EXPECT INCRSG SLY FLOW OVER UPR MI BTWN DEPARTING UPR RDG/SFC
HI TO THE E AND APRCHG UPR TROF THRU THE PLAINS IN PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN ALF. ALTHOUGH THERE WL BE QUITE A BIT OF HI CLD UNDER THE SW
FLOW ALF...THE LO/MID LVLS WL REMAIN QUITE DRY. H85 TEMPS ARE FCST
TO RISE CLOSE TO 0C OVER THE W BY LATE IN THE DAY...SO EXPECT A
HEALTHY DIURNAL TEMP RECOVERY DESPITE THE HI CLD COVER. TEMPS ARE
LIKELY TO BE HIEST IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS NEAR LK SUP FM IWD-COPPER
HARBOR...BARAGA AND MQT. TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO REACH 40 OR BETTER IN
THESE LOCATIONS. AREAS NEAR THE ICE ON THE BAY OF GREEN BAY WL BE
COOLEST.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM EST SUN FEB 19 2012
SPLIT FLOW TO START THE PERIOD WITH STRONGER JET STREAM REMAINING IN
THE SOUTHERN BRANCH. MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
PLACEMENT OF THE TWO SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OVR CENTRAL CONUS INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA ON MONDAY EVENING. UPR LEVEL WAVES STILL LOOK TO
REMAIN SEPARATE INTO TUESDAY BUT H85 LOWS DO TRY TO MERGE TOGETHER
OVR NW ONTARIO AND LK SUPERIOR REGION BY TUESDAY AFTN. RESULT IS A
SW FLOW OF INCREASING MOISTURE INTO UPR MI LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. MORE ABUNDANT MOISTURE/HIGHER PWATS STAY TIED TO SOUTHERN
STREAM UPR SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY INTO CNTRL
GREAT LAKES. EXPECT SWATH OF SNOW FORCED BY DIVERGENCE FM UPR JET
AND MID LEVEL FRONTOGENEIS TO LIFT INTO WESTERN UPR MI AFTER
MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING ON TUESDAY. SNOW SHOULD
FADE AWAY THROUGH THE DAY WHILE MOVING EAST AS MAIN MOISTURE STREAMS
BEGIN TO SPLIT AROUND UPR MI. BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW
WOULD BE IN THE FAR WESTERN CWA AROUND KIWD EARLY ON TUESDAY. DID
OPT FOR MENTION OF RAIN ALONG IMMEDIATE LK MICHIGAN SHORE LATER ON
TUESDAY WITH ONSHORE WINDS.
KIND OF A TRICKY FCST BEYOND TUESDAY AT THIS POINT...ESPECIALLY
THROUGH THURSDAY. MAIN ITEM CASTING UNCERTAINTY IS GENERAL TROUGHING
STAYING PUT FM SCNTRL CANADA INTO UPR LAKES. INITALLY ON TUESDAY
NIGHT...PRIMARY FOCUS FOR WIDESPREAD/STEADY PCPN SHOULD BE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST OF UPR MI OVER ONTARIO/QUEBEC IN VCNTY OF SFC-H85 LOW.
H85-H7 MOISTURE DOES LINGER THOUGH...ESPECIALLY OVR LK SUPERIOR.
MOISTURE COMBINED WITH WESTERLY FLOW AND H85 TEMPS DOWN TO AROUND
-10C COULD LEAD TO LGT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS KEWEENAW. MINIMAL CHANGE
INTO WEDNESDAY...AS WEST-NORTHWEST LOW-LEVEL WINDS PERSIST OVER THE
AREA AS SFC LOW LIFTS INTO QUEBEC. UPR LAKES IS WITHIN BASE OF LARGER
TROUGH...SO THERE COULD BE SOME SHORTWAVES SLIDING BY IN THE FLOW
THAT ARE NOT DEPICTED IN THE MODELS RIGHT NOW. OVERALL...SEEMS LIKE
SOME SMALL CHANCE POPS ARE JUSTIFIED...BUT NOTHING MORE AT THIS
POINT.
FOR THE EXTENDED...YESTERDAY IT LOOKED LIKE ONCE SFC-H85 LOWS WOULD
TRACK INTO QUEBEC IT WOULD USHER IN NW FLOW LK EFFECT BY THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. PATTERN LOOKING NOT AS CLEAR CUT NOW. MODELS...
ESPECIALLY LATEST VERSIONS OF GFS AND CANADIAN...POINT TO STRONGER
COMPACT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RIDING SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE TROUGH FM
NORTHERN ROCKIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND INTO UPR GREAT LAKES THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. EARLIER THE
GFS WAS FARTHEST NORTH WITH THE LOW/QPF THAN OTHER MODELS...BUT
LATEST CANADIAN NOW TAKES THAT TITLE. ECMWF IS FARTHER SOUTH AND
MORE SHEARED OUT WITH THE DISTURBANCE. BLEND OF MODELS AND THE GFS
ENSEMBLE WOULD SUGGEST FAR SOUTH CWA SEES THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW
LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. DETAILS ARE FAR FM SET THOUGH.
GIVEN UNCERTAINTY WILL STEER AWAY FM LK EFFECT POP IDEA FOR THURSDAY
AND OPEN UP MOST OF CWA FOR LOW CHANCE POPS. MOST MODELS INDICATE
LOW-LEVEL WINDS OVR NOTHERN CWA WOULD BE FM THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT WITH AT LEAST SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE.
INSTABILITY WOULD BE MARGINAL WITH DELTA T/S ONLY UP TO 13C. IF THE
LOW PRESSURE DOES TRACK FARTHER NORTH...THEN THERE WOULD BE MORE
POTENTIAL OF LAKE ENHANCEMENT.
EVENTUALLY...EXPECT NW FLOW LK EFFECT TO DEVELOP OVR THE AREA IN
WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND ON INTO
SATURDAY AS WELL. H85-H7 DEEPER MOISTURE ALONG WITH SUFFICIENT
OVER-WATER INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT SOME MODERATE ACCUMS IN THE
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY TIME FRAME. COLDEST DAYS OVR THE CWA SHOULD
BE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS STAYING IN THE TEENS FOR SOME OF
THE AREA. SUFFICIENTLY COLD AIR /H85 TEMPS BLO -15C/ PERSISTS INTO
SATURDAY THOUGH DECREASING SUB H85 MOISTURE AND LOWERING INVERSIONS
WITH ARRIVAL OF SFC-H85 RIDGE SHOULD BEGIN TO PUT DENT IN THE LK
EFFECT. UNCERTAINTY BACK INTO FCST BY SUNDAY AS GFS AND PREVIOUS
ECMWF WERE OUT OF PHASE WITH EACH OTHER. LATEST ECMWF IS MORE IN
LINE WITH GFS IDEA THOUGH SUGGESTING SYSTEM SNOW COULD RETURN TO UPR
LAKES LATE NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1222 AM EST MON FEB 20 2012
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THRU THIS FCST PERIOD AT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW AS DRY AIR LINGERS DESPITE HIGH PRES SHIFTING E TO
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. A STRONGER S WIND WILL DEVELOP TODAY UNDER
SHARPENING PRES GRADIENT BTWN THE DEPARTING HIGH PRES AND LOW PRES
APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS. MAY SEE LLWS DEVELOP THIS EVENING
DEPENDING UPON DEGREE OF DECOUPLING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 347 PM EST SUN FEB 19 2012
WITH AN UNSEASONABLY WEAK PRES GRADIENT FORECAST INTO TUE...EXPECT
WINDS NO HIER THAN 25 KTS. A STRONGER W WIND TO 30 KTS IS POSSIBLE
TUE NIGHT AND WED ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF LO PRES CROSSING ONTARIO.
THERE MAY BE SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS OVER PORTIONS OF NCENTRAL AND
EASTERN LK SUP. MAINLY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 30 KTS
EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEK AS COLDER AIR RETURNS TO THE REGION.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KC/JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1052 PM CST SUN FEB 19 2012
.UPDATE...
06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION ADDED BELOW.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
SEVERAL COMPLEX SCENARIOS FOR MON/MON EVENING SNOWFALL AMTS AND
PRECIPITATION TYPE AS A STORM SYSTEM BEGINS TO ORGANIZE ACROSS THE
PLAINS LATER TONIGHT...AND MOVES NE ON MON/MON EVENING.
AS WITH PREVIOUS SYSTEMS...AND THE OVERALL MEAN PATTERN THIS
WINTER...IT HAS BEEN INFLUENCED BY THE SOUTHERN JET STREAM. THIS
WILL LIKELY BE THE CASE WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH MOST OF THE
MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS STAYING SOUTH AND SE OF THE FA.
THERE ARE SEVERAL WX TOOLS THAT CAN DECIPHER WHICH PRECIPITATION
TYPE WILL EVOLVE AS THIS SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE TO THE NE MON
MORNING. INITIALLY...THICKNESS VALUES ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL
SNOW. HOWEVER...AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...1000/850MB 850/700MB AND
THE MAX WET BULB TEMP FOR A LAYER BETWEEN 0-1KM INDICATED THAT A
MIXTURE OF RAIN/SLEET/SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SW...AND SPREAD NE
ACROSS SOUTHERN MN DURING THE AFTN/EVENING. ONLY THE FAR NW
FA...OR AREAS ARND AXN/LXL WILL SEE ALL SNOW. DEPENDING UPON HOW
STRONG THE WAA DEVELOPS AND ASSOCIATED 85H JET...WILL DETERMINE
HOW FAR N THE MIXTURE OF RAIN/SLEET/SNOW MAKES IT INTO CENTRAL MN.
ANOTHER PROBLEM WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THE FACT THAT THE SOUTHERN JET
STREAM WILL TAKE OVER THE MAIN INFLUENCE ON PRECIPITATION
GENERATION BY LATE MON AFTN/EVENING. IN ADDITION...A DRY SLOT IS
POSSIBLE MON EVENING WHICH WILL CUT OFF ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
AMTS ONCE THE CHG OVER BEGINS. IN ADDITION...TEMPS MON WILL LIKELY
RISE INTO THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S ACROSS MOST OF THE FA WHICH WILL
LEAD TO MORE MELTING AT THE SFC...OR AT LEAST ON THE
CONCRETE...WITH SLUSHY ACCUMULATIONS ON GRASSY SURFACES.
SNOWFALL TOTALS ARE BASED ON A LOW SNOW RATIO WHERE QPF IS
RELATIVELY HIGH DURING THE AFTN/EARLY EVENING OF MON...WITH
QPF AMTS LOWER ONCE THE HIGHER SNOWFALL RATIOS DEVELOP MON
EVENING. AGAIN...THIS FORECAST IS HIGHLY BASED ON THE WARMER
THICKNESS VALUES/SNOWFALL RATIOS AND QPF AMTS. ANY DEVIATION TO
THESE PARAMETERS WILL LEAD TO MORE OR LESSER SNOWFALL TOTALS BY
TUESDAY MORNING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. SOMEWHAT
HIGHER AMTS COULD POSSIBLY EFFECT PORTIONS OF FAR SC MN/SE MN
AND WC WI WHERE A DEFORMATION ZONE DEVELOPS AS THE STORM SYSTEM
BECOMES MORE ORGANIZED ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION MON
AFTN/EVENING.
BEYOND TUE...THE OVERALL PATTERN BECOMES MORE CONDUCIVE OF WEAK
AND RELATIVELY LOW QPF AMTS AS SEVERAL /NW FLOW/ DISTURBANCES
MOVE SE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST. THICKNESS
VALUES INDICATE AT LEAST SNOW FOR THE PREDOMINATE PRECIPITATION
TYPE...BUT THAT COULD CHG BASED ON SFC TEMPS. AFT NEXT WEEK...THE
PATTERN MAY CHG ENOUGH FOR A VERY STRONG STORM SYSTEM TO AFFECT
THE UPPER MIDWEST BY THE WEEK OF FEB 27TH.
&&
.AVIATION.../06Z TAF ISSUANCE/
NOT MANY CHANGES MADE TO 00Z TAFS...OTHER THAN TO INTRO ALL SN
WHERE THERE WAS ONCE A RASN MIX AT RWF/MSP/STC. LATEST 00Z MODEL
RUNS COMING IN HAVE SLOWED EVEN FURTHER WITH ONSET OF PRECIP MON
AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT IN GENERAL MESHES WELL WITH THE 00Z
TAFS...WHICH TOOK A MORE CONSERVATIVE APPROACH TO PRECIP START
TIME. ONLY CHANGE MADE TO START TIMES WAS TO SLOW ONSET AT RWF/AXN
BY AN HOUR OR TWO. FOR CHANGEOVER TO ALL SN...00Z NAM SHOWS THIS
HAPPENING QUICKLY AFTER 00Z. PRECIP INTENSITY ALSO LOOK PRETTY
STRONG...SO TOOK VSBY DOWN TO 3/4SM IN THE SNOW...BUT LOWER VSBY
WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED. OTHER ISSUE TO WATCH FOR TONIGHT IS BATCH
OF MVFR CLOUDS RACING NORTH ACROSS ERN SODAK. THE RUC HAS BEEN
HANDLING THESE CLOUDS QUITE WELL...AND IT RIDES THIS MOISTURE
ALMOST DUE NORTH ALONG THE SD BORDER. THIS WOULD RESULT IN THEM
ONLY GLANCING AXN...SO HAVE A BRIEF TEMPO GROUP TO START OUT...AFTER
09Z THESE CLOUDS WILL BE NORTH OF THE AREA. 00Z NAM PUTS DOWN A
PRETTY CONSISTENT 2-3 INCHES WITH THIS SNOW...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS
AT RWF...WHERE CHANGE OVER TO SNOW HAPPENS LAST. AS FOR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS...STILL LOOKING LIKELY THAT VFR CONDS PERSIST UNTIL
PRECIP STARTS...AT WHICH POINTS CIGS/VSBY QUICKLY DETERIORATE TO
IFR OR LOWER. AS THE PRECIP ENDS...STILL SEEING INDICATIONS THAT
WE LOOSE DEEP MOISTURE...WITH A PERIOD OF FZDZ POSSIBLE.
KMSP...MODELS CONTINUE SLOW ONSET OF PRECIP...AND 02Z START TIME
FOR PRECIP IS LOOKING BETTER. GIVEN WARM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
AGAIN TODAY...EXPECT A RASN MIX TO START...BUT NAM FORECAST
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE COLUMN COOLING RAPIDLY...SO BROUGHT
IN SNOW AT 4Z...THOUGH IT MAY OCCUR A BIT EARLIER THAN THAT.
SHOULD SEE PRETTY GOOD 6 HR WINDOW OF MODERATE PRECIP BEFORE
THINGS BEGIN TO TAIL OFF TUESDAY MORNING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL
INDICATING WE LOSE DEEP MOISTURE...SO ENDED PRECIP WITH THE FZDZSN
MIX. LESS CONFIDENCE ON THAT WORKING OUT THOUGH.
//OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUE...MIX MVFR/VFR CIGS POSSIBLE.
.WED...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE WITH -SN.
.THU-FRI...IFR/MVFR CONDS LIKELY WITH PERIODS OF -SN.
.SAT...VFR.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
JLT/MPG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ABERDEEN SD
1145 PM CST SUN FEB 19 2012
.UPDATE...
UPDATED 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...
ECHOES ALREADY BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ON AREA RADARS LATE THIS
EVENING. THESE WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND AND INCREASE IN INTENSITY
THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL SHOWS SNOW DEVELOPING IN
PIERRE BY 3 AM OR SO AND SPREADING NORTHEAST TO ABERDEEN BY 7 AM.
CURRENT FORECAST SHOWS THIS WELL IN THE GRIDS. THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY LOOKS GOOD.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS PRECIPITATION TYPE/CHANGEOVER TIME-FRAME.
MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINNING TO COME SOMEWHAT MORE IN LINE WITH EACH
OTHER REGARDING PRECIPITATION TYPE. WET BULB ZERO TEMPS ARE COLD IN
ADDITION...MOST MODELS FARTHER WEST WITH PRECIPITATION/SNOW AS A
STRONG MID-LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE SETS UP JUST EAST OF THE MO
RIVER MONDAY MORNING...SLIDING EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. ISSUED
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ZONES EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER GIVEN
GOOD QPF AGREEMENT AND MOST MODELS COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW WEST
OF U.S. HIGHWAY 83 THROUGH AROUND 18Z. FAIRLY DEEP ISOTHERMAL
LAYER FROM THE SFC TO ABOUT H85 MAKING THIS SNOW ACCUMULATION
FORECASTS QUITE THE CHALLENGE. IF SNOW INTENSITY IS NOT SUFFICIENT...SOME
AREAS MAY SEE SNOW FALLING THROUGH THE DAY BUT LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF ACCUMULATION. OTHER LOCATIONS COULD BE A RAIN/SNOW MIX DURING
THE AFTERNOON OR A SNOW/SLEET MIX DURING THE MORNING...CUTTING
DOWN ON ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS. EITHER WAY...STILL LOOKS LIKE
ACCUMULATING SNOWS FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY WITH BRIEF HEAVY SNOW A POSSIBILITY ALONG A LARGE
SNOW BAND ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONGEST AREA OF MID-LEVEL
DEFORMATION/STRETCHING. SNOW SLIDES EAST OF THE REGION MONDAY
EVENING...WITH A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MOVING IN. A WEAK
CLIPPER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL BRING SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT
SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT AS ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A 135 KT JET NOSES
INTO WRN SD.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
FAIRLY POTENT CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE SLIDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS IN A BIT BETTER
AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW AND THERMAL PROFILES. HAVE
THEREFORE INCREASED POPS A BIT FROM INHERITED GUIDANCE...MAINLY
ACROSS WESTERN CWA. RATHER MILD AIR MOVES IN WITH THIS SYSTEM SO
PRECIP MAY VERY WELL BE ALL RAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
CWA. AS THE COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT PRECIP EXPECTED TO CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW. MODELS
INDICATING A BAND OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL SETTING UP SOMEWHERE
ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHICH COULD ADD UP TO A COUPLE
INCHES. ANOTHER SYSTEM SLIDING SOUTH THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
EVENING WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOWFALL. COLDER AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE SO EXPECTING PRIMARILY SNOWFALL WITH
THIS SYSTEM. MODELS NOT GIVING MUCH QPF WITH THIS WAVE DUE TO LACK
OF FORCING...BUT REGARDLESS...STILL LOOKS LIKE A CHANCE FOR LIGHT
SNOWFALL WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. MODELS ARE SHOWING A MUCH
STRONGER SYSTEM FOR NEXT WEEKEND BUT MANY DIFFERENCES IN MODELS AS
EXPECTED BEING THIS IS STILL A WEEK AWAY. BASICALLY LEFT GUIDANCE
POPS IN THE GRIDS FOR THIS SYSTEM UNTIL BETTER AGREEMENT IS
REACHED IN THE COMING DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS
VFR MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LOWER AND BECOME MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS THROUGH THE NIGHT AS STRONG LIFT FROM A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVES IN. EXPECT WIDESPREAD SNOW TO DEVELOP FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SNOW IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT
ALL TERMINALS WITH VISIBILITIES DOWN TO A HALF MILE AT TIMES. THE
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY ALONG WITH
IFR/MVFR CEILINGS. THE SNOW WILL END FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING WITH SKIES CLEARING AT MBG AND PIR IN THE EVENING.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR BUFFALO-
CAMPBELL-EDMUNDS-FAULK-HAND-HUGHES-HYDE-JONES-LYMAN-
MCPHERSON-POTTER-SULLY-WALWORTH.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR BROWN-
CLARK-CODINGTON-DAY-DEUEL-GRANT-HAMLIN-MARSHALL-ROBERTS-
SPINK.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR BIG
STONE-TRAVERSE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...CHURCH
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...MOHR
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
159 AM PST MON FEB 20 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES
INCREASING AFTER A SLIGHT EARLY COOLING TREND WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
DRY FRONT TODAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...RADAR SHOWS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION NOW APPROACHING MERCED COUNTY AS IT RACES TO THE
SOUTHEAST. NOT MUCH REACHING THE GROUND WITH SACRAMENTO JUST
TRACING THUS FAR AND I EXPECT IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS JUST TRACE
AMOUNTS WILL FALL. OVER THE SIERRA HOWEVER A FEW HUNDREDTHS MAY
FALL BEFORE THE FRONT EXITS THE REGION. THE LATEST RUC13 MODEL
SHOWS A COUPLE OF HUNDREDTHS OVER THE SIERRA THIS MORNING THEN
DRYING OUT. THE TROUGH IS THEN PROGGED TO QUICKLY MOVE INTO
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THEN A CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST TO FORM WEST
OF SAN DIEGO. MODELS ARE THEN IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN PUSHING A
RIDGE AXIS ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA FROM TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN
KEEPING THIS FEATURE IN PLACE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. GIVEN THIS,
DRY AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE THE MAIN WEATHER
FEATURES IN THIS VERY DRY WINTER. FOR NEXT WEEKEND, THE GFS AND
ECMWF MODELS CANNOT PRODUCE A CONSISTENT OR AGREEABLE SOLUTION
AFTER THE RIDGE PATTERN BREAKS DOWN. THE LATEST ECMWF MODEL AFTER
SEVERAL RUNS OF A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN NOW BRINGS A DEEP
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE INTO THE WEST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
WHILE THE GFS SUGGESTS A MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED TROUGH PASSAGE WELL
TO THE EAST. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...
LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS OVER THE SOUTHERN
SIERRA NEVADA WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE BTWN 18Z SUN - 06Z
TUES. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITION ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
INTERIOR THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...DUDLEY
AVN/FW...DCH
SYNOPSIS...PJ
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
556 AM CST MON FEB 20 2012
.AVIATION...12Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS WILL BE LOWER CIGS THIS MORNING...STRONG
WINDS ALONG WITH CONVECTIVE CHANCES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
STRONG LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT INTO THE PLAINS TODAY.
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM SOUTH WINDS WILL BE QUITE STRONG ACROSS ALL TAF
SITES FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AN AREA OF
LOWER CIGS CURRENTLY STRETCHES ALONG AND WEST OF I-135 AND IS
PROGRESSING EAST. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THESE CIGS WILL NOT
DROP TO IFR LEVELS...FEEL THEY WILL BOUNCE BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR FOR
MOST OF THE MORNING.
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE
COLD FRONT/DRYLINE. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG OR JUST WEST
OF I-135 AFTER 18Z AND WILL RAPIDLY PUSH EAST. WHILE WIDESPREAD
SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED...A FEW OF THE STRONGER CELLS MAY
PRODUCE NICKEL TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL.
AS THIS STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST...STRONG
WEST AND NORTHWEST WINDS WILL MOVE-IN FROM THE WEST AFTER 00Z AND
WILL BE SUSTAINED AROUND 35 MPH WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 40 AND 45 MPH.
THESE HIGH WIND SPEEDS WILL DIE OFF AROUND 06Z.
LAWSON
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 AM CST MON FEB 20 2012/
DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN/CHALLENGE IS PRECIPITATION AND WINDS TODAY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS
KANSAS.
SYNOPSIS:
A DEEP TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS THIS MORNING AND
WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER SYSTEM IMPACTING THE AREA TODAY. AT THE
SURFACE A LOW IS DEEPENING IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WITH STRONG
SOUTHERLY GRADIENT WINDS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AHEAD OF THE LOW.
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME.
TODAY - TONIGHT:
THIS WILL BE THE TRICKIEST PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. THE SURFACE LOW
WILL TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TODAY. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP LOW WILL CAUSE WINDS TO HOWL
ACROSS THE AREA. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE STRONG DURING THE DAY WITH
WARM AIR ADVECTION AND HAVE KEPT THE CURRENT WIND ADVISORY IN
PLACE. HOWEVER...DID ADD RUSSELL AND BARTON COUNTIES TO THE
ADVISORY WITH THE CONCERN ABOUT STRONG WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS JUST AS STRONG AND DESPITE THE FACT THAT IT
WILL BE MOVING THROUGH NEAR TO AFTER SUNSET THE GRADIENT WINDS WILL
KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED. SO HAVE ALSO EXTENDED THE ADVISORY
TIME FROM UNTIL 06Z. THE ONE WIND ADVISORY WILL COVER BOTH THE
STRONG SOUTH WINDS AND STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AS WE DECIDED TO KEEP
ONE ADVISORY INSTEAD OF TRYING TO SEPARATE IT AND CONFUSE PEOPLE.
BOTTOM LINE IT IS GOING TO BE VERY WINDY TODAY.
THE NEXT MAIN CHALLENGE IS THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY. AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS AND THE HRRR HAS HAD A REALLY GOOD HANDLE ON
IT SINCE THE 03/04Z RUN. THE LATER HRRR RUNS ARE SOMEWHAT IN LINE
WITH WHAT THE NAM HINTS AT...KEEPING THE MAIN PRECIPITATION SHOW
LATER IN THE DAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN KANSAS. THE 06Z/HRRR
ALBEIT A LITTLE BULLISH ON THE INTENSITY SHOWS THE LINE OF
PRECIPITATION MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH THE
WARM AIR ADVECTION/MOISTURE TRANSPORT. THEN AFTER IT MOVES THROUGH
IT KEEPS THE FORECAST DRY UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON...MUCH LIKE THE
NAM IS SHOWING. HAVE TRIED TO TREND THAT WAY WITH POPS...DECREASING
THEM EARLIER IN THE DAY AND INCREASING THEM TOWARD THE AFTERNOON.
THE NAM ALSO INDICATES THAT THE DRYSLOT WILL TRY TO MOVE INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS WILL HELP TEMPERATURES AND THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL AS THE COLD FRONT/DRY LINE MOVES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
LOW LEVEL ML AND MU CAPE INDICATE ABOUT 500-1000 J/KG POSSIBLE
AROUND 21Z ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THE POSSIBILITY FOR LOW
TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS AND POSSIBLY SOME ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. SEVERE HAIL AND WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN A
FEW ISOLATED EVENTS...BUT WIDESPREAD SEVERE ACTIVITY IS NOT
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
TUESDAY - WEDNESDAY:
THE PATTERN CALMS SOME AFTER TODAY DESPITE A COUPLE MORE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS. HOWEVER THE MAIN ENERGY WILL STAY NORTH
WHICH WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR. THE COLD FRONT TODAY WILL SWEEP
ALL MOISTURE SOUTHWARD KEEPING IT DRY. LOW LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS
WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA BOTH DAYS AND ALTHOUGH THEY WILL NOT
BE SUPER STRONG...10-15 MPH WINDS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DOWNSLOPE
WILL HELP TEMPERATURES WARM TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL. INCREASED
TEMPERATURES BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BUT MORE DRASTICALLY
WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
AREA.
THURSDAY - FRIDAY:
BY THURSDAY THE NEXT FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE KEPT
THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW...BUT THE LATEST 00Z/ECMWF DOES HINT AT THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME PRECIPITATION. CONFIDENCE IS LOW OF ANY
PRECIPITATION WITH THE LACK OF ANY RETURN FLOW DURING THE WEEK. THE
FRONT WILL AT THE MINIMUM SHIFT THE WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST AND LOWER
TEMPERATURES BACK NEARER TO NORMAL...IN THE UPPER 40S.
SATURDAY - SUNDAY:
THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS BEGINS TO DIVERGE BY THE END OF
THE WEEK. AFTER THE WAVE THAT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY...THEY INDICATE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WITH THE NEXT WAVE MOVING IN BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM
DIVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE GUIDANCE DOES SHOW A POTENT
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY...BEYOND THIS
FORECAST...BUT BECAUSE OF THE DRASTIC DIFFERENCES IN TIMING...HAVE
KEPT THE FORECAST DRY AND TEMPERATURES AT MODEL CONSENSUS WHICH IS
IN THE LOW 50S. STAY TUNED AS THE FORECAST EVOLVE.
BILLINGS
FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER WILL BE A CONCERN TODAY ACROSS THE WHOLE AREA WITH THE
GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER INDEX REACHING INTO VERY HIGH AND APPROACHING
EXTREME OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE VERY
STRONG THROUGHOUT THE DAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE HAVE A WIND
ADVISORY IN EFFECT WHICH MEANS THAT WINDS WILL BE SUSTAINED AROUND
30 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH. WINDS WILL THEN SWITCH TO THE
NORTHWEST AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND WILL THEN BE 30-35 MPH WITH
GUSTS NEAR 40-45 MPH. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT THE WINDS WILL CAUSE ANY FIRE THAT STARTS
TO QUICKLY BECOME DANGEROUS.
BILLINGS
AVIATION...06Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
AS HAS BEEN THE CASE OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF WEEKS...MODELS STRUGGLED
WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. 0000 UTC RUNS LOOK A BIT BETTER THAN THE
18Z ONES...ESPECIALLY WITH RUC/NAM/HRRR BEING MORE GENEROUS WITH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS TRANSLATES TO EARLIER/MORE EXTENSIVE
CLOUDS...WITH VERY HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF MVFR AND SOME CHANCE OF IFR
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY AT KRSL/KHUT. PRECIPITATION TIMING IS A
BIT UNCERTAIN...WITH ONE DECENT IMPULSE MOVING THROUGH IN A FEW
HOURS PER WATER VAPOR LOOP...AND THEN MORE ASSOCIATED WITH
FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE/SPEED MAXIMUM AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH. SO
SUSPECT ISOLATED/SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL REDEVELOP/LINGER INTO
LATE MORNING AT KSLN/KHUT/KICT. PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT KCNU LOOK
A BIT LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME. DRY SLOT WILL WORK ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH LOW CLOUDS/GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE EVENING. -HOWERTON
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 56 28 58 34 / 60 20 0 0
HUTCHINSON 55 28 58 34 / 50 20 0 0
NEWTON 54 29 57 35 / 60 20 0 0
ELDORADO 57 30 57 34 / 60 20 0 0
WINFIELD-KWLD 57 29 59 34 / 60 20 0 0
RUSSELL 56 27 57 33 / 50 20 0 10
GREAT BEND 56 26 57 33 / 50 20 0 10
SALINA 55 28 59 34 / 60 30 0 0
MCPHERSON 55 28 59 34 / 60 20 0 0
COFFEYVILLE 60 33 59 36 / 60 40 10 10
CHANUTE 55 33 58 35 / 60 50 10 0
IOLA 55 32 58 36 / 60 50 10 0
PARSONS-KPPF 58 33 59 34 / 60 40 10 10
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
KSZ032-033-047>053-067>070-082-083-091>094-098.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
929 AM EST MON FEB 20 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND PROVIDE
DRY WEATHER INTO EARLY TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY BRINGING RAIN TO THE AREA. A SHARP COLD DOWN IS SLATED FOR
THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
STRATOCU DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE IS ERODING RAPIDLY OVER WRN PA.
THIS IS LINE WITH THE LATEST HRRR BL RH PROGS. EXPECT CLOUDS OVER
ECNTRL OHIO TO LINGER INTO THE LUNCH HOUR...BEFORE OWING TO MSNNY
CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES ON TRACK WITH LATEST GRIDDED LAMP THUS NO
CHANGES NECESSARY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ANOTHER OPEN WAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO SWING ALONG THE OHIO
VALLEY TUESDAY AND NORTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT.
AREA OF ASSOCIATED SHOWERS IS PROGGED TO ADVANCE EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EXIT TO THE EAST BY LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. WAA, AHEAD OF SYSTEM, SHOULD BOOST TEMPERATURES
ENOUGH FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE TO REMAIN IN FORM OF LIQUID AT MOST
LOCATIONS.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER TROUGH PULLS AWAY. AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE SHOWER COVERAGE AGAIN LATE IN THE DAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECAST PATTERN FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD CONTS TO FEATURE DEVELOPMENT
OF A MID/UPR LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO THE SOUTH OF THE HUDSON BAY. THE
UPR OHIO VALLEY REGION WOULD THUS BE UNDER ZONAL FLOW THROUGH THE
BASE OF THE RESULTING BROAD TROUGH ACRS THE GREAT LAKES.
PRECIP PROGNOSIS WL DEPEND ON TIMING OF SHORTWAVES WITHIN THAT RAPID
FLOW...SO FORECAST THROUGH DAY 6 IS OF CHC NUMBERS THAT ARE AT OR
ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NUMBERS. INITIALLY MILD TEMPERATURES WL
DECLINE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS PROGRESSING SHORTWAVES SHUNT COLDER AIR
ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF STATES AND TOWARD THE UPR OH REGION. DECISIVE
COLD FRONT IS ECMWF/GFS AGREED FOR A SATURDAY PASSAGE...HENCE A
DRY SUNDAY WAS PROGGED WITH SEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST. MVFR CLOUDS WILL ERODE BY 15Z AT ALL
TERMINALS SAVE FOR ZZV WHERE IT WILL LINGER INTO THE 16-17Z TIME
FRAME. AFTER STRATOCU MIXES OUT LOOK FOR VFR WX THE BALANCE OF THE
FORECAST.
OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR WEATHER PREDICTED.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...98
NEAR TERM...98
AVIATION...98
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
429 AM CST MON FEB 20 2012
.DISCUSSION...
100% POPS IN THE FORECAST ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS WITH THE TROUGH TRANSVERSING THE ROCKIES EARLY THIS
MORNING. NOT THE SIMPLEST OF SNOW FORECASTS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE
SLOWER TREND CONTINUES AND SEEMS WE PUSH BACK THE PRECIP WITH
EVERY FORECAST ISSUANCE...TONIGHT WAS NO DIFFERENT. TO COME UP
WITH THE CURRENT TIMING...BLENDED THE PREVIOUS DAY-SHIFT FORECAST
WITH THE 03Z SREF AND DID SOME SMOOTHING FROM THERE. THIS AGREES
WELL WITH THE SLOWER NCEP WRF-ARW/NMM GUIDANCE WHICH DOESNT BRING
PRECIP IN UNTIL AFTER 20Z. IT MIGHT NOT EVEN START WITH RAIN/SNOW
IN THE METRO UNTIL AFTER 6 PM THIS EVENING.
THE GUIDANCE HAS CONSISTENTLY BROUGHT A COUPLE TENTHS OR MORE OF
LIQUID TO THE FORECAST AREA...BUT THE BIG QUESTION HAS BEEN THE
WARM LAYER AND MIXED P-TYPE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. I
WOULD SAY THE BIGGEST CHANGE TO THE NAM/GFS TONIGHT HAS BEEN THE
RAPID DYNAMIC COLUMN COOLING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM WEST
TO EAST. EVEN WITH THE PV ANOMALY AND STRONGEST 500MB HEIGHT
FALLS OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI...THE COL/DEFORMATION AREA BETWEEN
THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM WAVES SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR
A BRIEF WINDOW OF INTENSE SNOW BEFORE DRYING IN THE 600-700MB
LAYER MOVES IN BETWEEN 03-09Z...AGAIN FROM W/SW TO E/NE. WE`RE ON
THE EDGE OF THE BEST UPPER DIVERGENCE WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF
THE UPPER JET AS WELL.
REMOVED THE SLEET FROM THE FORECAST EVEN WITH THE WARM WEDGE
BUILDING IN ON THE BACK OF A STRONG 850MB JET TODAY. JUST THINK
WHEN WE`RE WARM ALOFT WE`LL BE WARM AT THE SURFACE AS WELL AND GET
RAIN OUT OF IT. THE COLUMN COOLS TOP DOWN AND COULD BE AIDED
SLIGHTLY BY HEAVIER PRECIP FALLING THROUGH THE COLUMN...EVEN
THOUGH 1000-850MB WET BULB ISN`T COLD BY ANY MEANS. AGAIN...THE
NAM AND GFS SHOW THIS HAPPENING PRETTY FAST THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THERE WAS SOME CONCERN THIS MORNING WITH NEGATIVE EPV AND
STRONG FGEN WITH THE BAND THAT WE COULD GET A QUICK SNOW BURST AND
A COUPLE HOUR PERIOD WHEN SNOW RATES ARE NEAR OR ABOVE 1"/HR. THIS
MIGHT BE MORE OF A CONCERN IN THE DAKOTAS AND WEST CENTRAL MN. IN
FACT...SOME NWS OFFICES TO OUR WEST TOSSED AROUND THE POSSIBILITY
OF A WINTER STORM WARNING. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT.
HOWEVER...WE DECIDED TO GO WITH AN ADVISORY TO MATCH WHAT OFFICES
TO OUR WEST DID. WE`VE GOT AROUND 3 INCHES IN WEST CENTRAL MN...SO
IT WAS CLOSE ENOUGH TO WHAT WE LIKE TO SEE FOR AN ADVISORY EVENT.
THERE MIGHT BE A FAIRLY DRAMATIC CUTOFF IN SNOW AMOUNTS FROM WEST
CENTRAL MN TO SOUTHWEST MN...GIVEN THE WARMER TEMPERATURES FURTHER
SOUTH. AT ANY RATE...HAVE A LOT OF THE AREA WITH AROUND 2 INCHES
OF SLUSHY ACCUMULATION...SO 1-3" MIGHT NOT BE A BAD BROAD BRUSH
FORECAST IN THIS CASE. SNOW RATIOS OFF THE MODELS WERE ALL OVER
THE PLACE...BUT TRIED TO STAY RIGHT AROUND 9-10:1. THIS WILL BE A
FUN ONE TO SEE PLAY OUT. GIVEN SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING
WHEN THE SNOW IS FALLING...PERHAPS EVEN A DEGREE OR TWO
ABOVE...IT COULD MEAN MORE WET ROADS THAN ANYTHING ELSE. SLUSHY
ACCUMS ON LESS TRAVELED ROADS.
A LOT OF CHANCE POPS IN THE EXTENDED THAT WILL HAVE TO BE IRONED
OUT WITH TIME. IN FACT...THE GFS TONIGHT HAD AT LEAST LIGHT QPF
SOMEWHERE IN THE FORECAST AREA FROM 06Z THURSDAY TO 06Z SATURDAY.
INCREASED POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING WITH THE WAVE
DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE
NOW LOOKS A LITTLE STRONGER THAN WHAT WE WERE SEEING YESTERDAY.
THE COMING WEEKEND STILL LOOKS A LITTLE COOLER.
&&
.AVIATION.../06Z TAF ISSUANCE/
NOT MANY CHANGES MADE TO 00Z TAFS...OTHER THAN TO INTRO ALL SN
WHERE THERE WAS ONCE A RASN MIX AT RWF/MSP/STC. LATEST 00Z MODEL
RUNS COMING IN HAVE SLOWED EVEN FURTHER WITH ONSET OF PRECIP MON
AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT IN GENERAL MESHES WELL WITH THE 00Z
TAFS...WHICH TOOK A MORE CONSERVATIVE APPROACH TO PRECIP START
TIME. ONLY CHANGE MADE TO START TIMES WAS TO SLOW ONSET AT RWF/AXN
BY AN HOUR OR TWO. FOR CHANGEOVER TO ALL SN...00Z NAM SHOWS THIS
HAPPENING QUICKLY AFTER 00Z. PRECIP INTENSITY ALSO LOOK PRETTY
STRONG...SO TOOK VSBY DOWN TO 3/4SM IN THE SNOW...BUT LOWER VSBY
WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED. OTHER ISSUE TO WATCH FOR TONIGHT IS BATCH
OF MVFR CLOUDS RACING NORTH ACROSS ERN SODAK. THE RUC HAS BEEN
HANDLING THESE CLOUDS QUITE WELL...AND IT RIDES THIS MOISTURE
ALMOST DUE NORTH ALONG THE SD BORDER. THIS WOULD RESULT IN THEM
ONLY GLANCING AXN...SO HAVE A BRIEF TEMPO GROUP TO START OUT...AFTER
09Z THESE CLOUDS WILL BE NORTH OF THE AREA. 00Z NAM PUTS DOWN A
PRETTY CONSISTENT 2-3 INCHES WITH THIS SNOW...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS
AT RWF...WHERE CHANGE OVER TO SNOW HAPPENS LAST. AS FOR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS...STILL LOOKING LIKELY THAT VFR CONDS PERSIST UNTIL
PRECIP STARTS...AT WHICH POINTS CIGS/VSBY QUICKLY DETERIORATE TO
IFR OR LOWER. AS THE PRECIP ENDS...STILL SEEING INDICATIONS THAT
WE LOOSE DEEP MOISTURE...WITH A PERIOD OF FZDZ POSSIBLE.
KMSP...MODELS CONTINUE SLOW ONSET OF PRECIP...AND 02Z START TIME
FOR PRECIP IS LOOKING BETTER. GIVEN WARM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
AGAIN TODAY...EXPECT A RASN MIX TO START...BUT NAM FORECAST
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE COLUMN COOLING RAPIDLY...SO BROUGHT
IN SNOW AT 4Z...THOUGH IT MAY OCCUR A BIT EARLIER THAN THAT.
SHOULD SEE PRETTY GOOD 6 HR WINDOW OF MODERATE PRECIP BEFORE
THINGS BEGIN TO TAIL OFF TUESDAY MORNING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL
INDICATING WE LOSE DEEP MOISTURE...SO ENDED PRECIP WITH THE FZDZSN
MIX. LESS CONFIDENCE ON THAT WORKING OUT THOUGH.
//OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUE...MIX MVFR/VFR CIGS POSSIBLE.
.WED...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE WITH -SN.
.THU-FRI...IFR/MVFR CONDS LIKELY WITH PERIODS OF -SN.
.SAT...VFR.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
CLF/MPG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
944 AM PST MON FEB 20 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CONDITIONS AND GRADUAL WARMING IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF
THIS WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM IS PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA INTERIOR. SCANT MOISTURE ACCOMPANIES THIS FEATURE
AND CHANCES FOR ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION ARE RATHER SLIM.
TEMPERATURES YESTERDAY BEHIND THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM RAN JUST A TAD
BELOW CLIMO AND THE ADDITIONAL PASSING SHORTWAVE WILL PROVIDE
SIMILAR CONDITIONS TODAY. THE FORECAST FOR TODAY CAN BE UPDATED TO
TRIM THE POPS...OTHERWISE NO CHANGES REQUIRED.
A REBUILDING UPPER RIDGE BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH TOMORROW WILL
BRING DRY AND WARMING CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDWEEK. THEN MODELS
CONTINUE TO HAVE SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE PATTERN FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 159 AM PST MON FEB 20 2012/
DISCUSSION...RADAR SHOWS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION NOW APPROACHING MERCED COUNTY AS IT RACES TO THE
SOUTHEAST. NOT MUCH REACHING THE GROUND WITH SACRAMENTO JUST
TRACING THUS FAR AND I EXPECT IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS JUST TRACE
AMOUNTS WILL FALL. OVER THE SIERRA HOWEVER A FEW HUNDREDTHS MAY
FALL BEFORE THE FRONT EXITS THE REGION. THE LATEST RUC13 MODEL
SHOWS A COUPLE OF HUNDREDTHS OVER THE SIERRA THIS MORNING THEN
DRYING OUT. THE TROUGH IS THEN PROGGED TO QUICKLY MOVE INTO
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THEN A CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST TO FORM WEST
OF SAN DIEGO. MODELS ARE THEN IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN PUSHING A
RIDGE AXIS ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA FROM TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN
KEEPING THIS FEATURE IN PLACE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. GIVEN THIS,
DRY AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE THE MAIN WEATHER
FEATURES IN THIS VERY DRY WINTER. FOR NEXT WEEKEND, THE GFS AND
ECMWF MODELS CANNOT PRODUCE A CONSISTENT OR AGREEABLE SOLUTION
AFTER THE RIDGE PATTERN BREAKS DOWN. THE LATEST ECMWF MODEL AFTER
SEVERAL RUNS OF A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN NOW BRINGS A DEEP
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE INTO THE WEST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
WHILE THE GFS SUGGESTS A MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED TROUGH PASSAGE WELL
TO THE EAST. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...
LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS IN UPSLOPE OVER THE SOUTHERN
SIERRA NEVADA THRU 00Z TUE. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR THRU 18Z TUE.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...JEB
AVN/FW...DS
SYNOPSIS...PJ
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS EUREKA CA
840 AM PST MON FEB 20 2012
.UPDATE...
UPDATED POPS AND WX THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR LATEST TRENDS. NOT
MUCH ACTIVITY ON RADAR ATTM AND MOST OBS REPORTING ONLY OCCASIONAL
SPRINKLES OR DRIZZLE SINCE MIDNIGHT. RUC ANALYSIS/WV IMAGERY
SHOWING WE ARE IN BETWEEN SHORTWAVES WITH ANOTHER IMPULSE SET TO
IMPACT US LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. HARD TO TELL ON
WEB CAMS IN EARLY MORNING LIGHT BUT LOOKS LIKE A LIGHT COATING OF
SNOW AT OREGON MTN AND BUCKHORN. SNOW LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO
RISE AND SFC TEMPS ARE ABOVE FREEZING AT ALL BUT THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS ABOVE THE MAJOR PASSES.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 AM PST MON FEB 20 2012/
UPDATE...WINDS HAVE FALLEN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA ACROSS
ALL WATERS...SO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE AT 7 AM. OTHERWISE THE GOING FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AND
THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW. RPA
SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING LIGHT SHOWERS TO
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA THROUGH TONIGHT. DRY WEATHER RETURNS TUESDAY
AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEST COAST WEATHER PATTERN.
DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 405 AM MON FEB 20 2012/ SATELLITE SHOWS
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING OVER THE REGION. 11:45Z
LOCAL RADAR LOOP SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS THAT ARE RAPIDLY
DIMINISHING. THIS IS MAINLY DUE TO AN AREA OF DRY AIR WORKING ITS
WAY INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE MAIN BAND OF
PRECIPITATION MOVED THROUGH LAST NIGHT AND IT DID NOT DROP MUCH IN
TERMS OF AMOUNTS. THIS CONTINUES THE TREND THE PAST FEW DAYS OF
THE MODELS OVERDOING QPF AMOUNTS. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
THAT CONTINUE TODAY. LOWERED POPS AND QPF IN TODAY AND TONIGHT`S
FORECAST, BUT AM CONCERNED THAT BOTH MAY STILL BE OVERDONE DUE TO
WHAT WAS JUST STATED. THE POTENTIAL OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE IN
THE VALLEYS OF TRINITY COUNTY CONTINUES THIS MORNING. IT IS
BORDERLINE RIGHT NOW WITH LOW ELEVATION TEMPERATURES HOVERING
AROUND 34 TO 36 DEGREES WITH LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION. BUT ANY
THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL DIMINISH THIS MORNING AS SUNSHINE WARMS UP
THE VALLEY TEMPERATURES. THE SUNSHINE MAY HELP GENERATE SOME
INSTABILITY SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE SHOWERS WILL
DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE. THERE MAY BE SOME
REMNANT SHOWERS ACROSS DEL NORTE COUNTY ON TUESDAY, BUT LITTLE IF
ANY QPF IS EXPECTED. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES OVER THE WEST COAST
MIDWEEK AND STAYS IN PLACE THROUGH ABOUT FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING
THE AREA DRY WEATHER. THINGS CHANGE OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE
MOVES TO THE EAST AND A TROUGH FORMS OVER THE WEST COAST. RAISED
THE LONG TERM POPS TO CLIMO TO REFLECT THIS.
AVIATION.../ISSUED AT 405 AM MON FEB 20 2012/ LOW CEILINGS AND
AREAS OF DRIZZLE/RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE THE RULE TODAY ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CWA. CEILINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN MVFR AT THE TAF SITES AND
SHOULD CONTINUE TO HOLD AT THESE LEVELS OR LOWER THROUGH THE DAY
INTO TONIGHT AS ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES JUST OFF THE SURFACE.
CONFIDENCE IN SPECIFIC CEILING LEVELS IS LOW TODAY...BUT BY
TONIGHT ALL CEILINGS SHOULD FALL INTO NEAR IFR ACROSS THE INTERIOR
AND IFR/LIFR NEAR THE COAST. THE ONSHORE FLOW ALOFT SHOULD
MAINTAIN THE CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA AND
DRIZZLE NEAR THE COAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE UPPER LEVEL
LIFT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. VISIBILITIES MAY ALSO FALL TONIGHT AS
WINDS WEAKEN AND CEILINGS DESCEND. MORE ROBUST ONSHORE FLOW WILL
DEVELOP ON TUESDAY AS SURFACE WINDS TURN ONSHORE WITH ABUNDANT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS MAY MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR CONDITIONS TO
IMPROVE TUESDAY NEAR THE COAST. DRIER AIR WILL INFILTRATE
MENDOCINO COUNTY POSSIBLY RESULTING IN IMPROVING CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY AT UKI. RPA
MARINE.../ISSUED AT 405 AM MON FEB 20 2012/ SOUTHERLY WINDS
CONTINUE TO GUST OVER 25 KT ACROSS THE OUTER EDGE OF THE INNER
NORTHERN WATERS AND NORTHERN OUTER WATERS THIS MORNING AS A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO HOLD JUST OFF THE COAST. THIS TROUGH
WILL WEAKEN THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY
OVER THE REGION DIVES SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THUS WINDS
SHOULD FALL BELOW SMALL CRAFT BY 7 AM TODAY WITH NO OTHER
HEADLINES EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL TURN TO OUT OF THE
NORTH ON TUESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OFF THE COAST
ALLOWING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO SETTLE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC.
AT THE SAME TIME TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE ACROSS INTERIOR
CALIFORNIA RESULTING IN A STRENGTHENING THERMAL TROUGH. STRONG
NORTHERLIES WILL THEN DEVELOP OVER THE WATERS AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT STRENGTHENS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE
EXPECTED...POSSIBLY GALES FOR A PERIOD MID TO LATE WEEK. OVER THE
WEEKEND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN ALLOWING A
COLD FRONT TO POSSIBLY DIVE SOUTH ALONG THE COAST RESULTING IN A
REINFORCING PUSH OF NORTHERLY WINDS AS ANOTHER AREA OF SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST.
NORTHWESTERLY SWELL TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE INTO TUESDAY.
BY MIDWEEK ANOTHER NORTHWESTERLY LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL ARRIVE IN
THE WATERS WITH AMPLITUDES IN THE 13 TO 15 FT RANGE POSSIBLE BY
THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE IN THE ACTUAL SWELL HEIGHTS IS CURRENTLY LOW
AS THE GENERATING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS STILL DEVELOPING.
REGARDLESS OF THE SWELL MAGNITUDE...AS THE NORTHERLY WINDS
INTENSIFY MIDWEEK SHORT PERIOD WIND DRIVEN SEAS WILL ALSO DEVELOP.
THUS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS SHOULD BE IN THE TEENS NO MATTER THE
SWELL HEIGHT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
WATERS WHERE THE WINDS WILL BE THE STRONGEST. RPA
&&
.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
341 PM CST MON FEB 20 2012
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TOMORROW)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CST MON FEB 20 2012
FORECAST CONCERNS ARE THE SNOW AND HIGH WINDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING. THIS MORNINGS UA ANALYSIS SHOWED A STRONG
UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES WITH A CLOSED
CIRCULATION SHOWING UP OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO. THIS FEATURE HAS BEEN
MOVING STEADILY EAST THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS AND THE OK/TX PANHANDLES
THIS AFTERNOON. RUC ANALYSIS SHOWED A FAIRLY INTENSE MID LEVEL
VORT MAX ACROSS THE AREA WITH STRONG PVA AND MID LEVEL UVV OCCURRING
OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THIS LINES UP WELL WITH AN AREA OF LIGHT
TO MODERATE SNOW WHICH HAS BEEN TRANSLATING EAST THROUGH SOUTHWEST
KANSAS TODAY.
THE AREAS OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO WORK EASTWARD ACROSS
SOUTHWEST AND TOWARD CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH RAPIDLY TOWARD SUNSET AS THE
TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.
HIGH WINDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO MATERIALIZE ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS
THIS AFTERNOON PARTLY DUE TO THE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND
REDUCED MIXING. AM STILL CONCERNED THAT WE COULD SEE A WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY AS THE GRADIENT INCREASES ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOWER
ATMOSPHERIC TROUGH AXIS. RUC MODEL SOUNDINGS THROUGHOUT THE DAY
HAVE BEEN SHOWING 50-60 KNOT WINDS DEVELOPING IN THE 850-875 MB
LAYER THROUGH THE 21Z-01Z TIME PERIOD. WILL KEEP THE CURRENT
HEADLINES IN PLACE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE RAPIDLY EAST OUT OF THE
PLAINS TONIGHT WITH WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. ANOTHER
BROAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEAST OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. ONLY SOME SCATTERED HIGH
CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED WITH THE SHORTWAVE. LOW LEVEL DOWNSLOPE
FLOW SHOULD HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE 55 TO 60 DEGREE RANGE
FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CST MON FEB 20 2012
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
IN THE FAR INTERMOUNTAIN WEST DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA REGION EARLY IN THE PERIOD TUESDAY. MEANWHILE, A WEST TO
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS
DURING THE FIRST COUPLE DAYS OF THE PERIOD ALONG WITH A WESTERLY
DOWNSLOPE REGIME PERSISTING NEAR THE SURFACE HELPING TO DRY OUT THE
LOWER LEVELS. AS A RESULT, DRY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST IS
THEN PROJECTED TO TRACK EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS OF TEXAS BY
THURSDAY JUST AS A SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTHEAST
OUT OF CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE NORTHERN WAVE WILL HELP
USHER A COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO WESTERN KANSAS SOMETIME LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. HOWEVER, VERY LITTLE IS EXPECTED IN
REGARDS TO PRECIP WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH A LACK OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINING A FACTOR.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY AS A WEAK LEE
SIDE TROUGH INFLUENCES A WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS. THE NAM, GFS, AND ECMWF SHOW H85 TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM
AROUND 5C ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TO NEAR 8C ALONG THE COLORADO
BORDER. LOOK FOR HIGHS WELL UP INTO THE 50S(F) TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH NEAR 60F POSSIBLE IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. TEMPERATURES WILL
CLIMB GOING INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT NEAR
THE SURFACE CONTINUES ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. TEMPERATURES AT H85
WILL WARM TO AROUND 12C ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TO NEAR 15C IN EXTREME
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. EXPECT WIDESPREAD 60S(F) WEDNESDAY WITH NEAR
70F POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS. WILL NEED TO RAISE HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY BY AT LEAST 3 TO 5 DEGREES ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE THEN LIKELY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY IN
WAKE OF THE PROJECTED FRONTAL PASSAGE BY EARLY THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CST MON FEB 20 2012
MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE AT GARDEN CITY THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL
DEVELOP AT DODGE CITY AND HAYS AS THE AFTERNOON CONTINUES. LIGHT
SNOW COULD REDUCE VISIBILITIES AT GARDEN CITY INTO THE 3-5 MILE
RANGE AFTER 20Z. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE TO SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF
25 TO 35 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 45-50 KNOTS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AT
GARDEN CITY AND DODGE CITY. CIGS AND VSBYS SHOULD IMPROVE RAPIDLY
FROM WEST TO EAST BY AROUND 00Z AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY SUNSET.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 22 58 30 70 / 30 0 0 0
GCK 20 56 28 69 / 20 0 0 0
EHA 21 57 33 70 / 10 0 0 0
LBL 21 58 30 70 / 10 0 0 0
HYS 25 56 30 69 / 30 0 0 0
P28 27 60 32 72 / 30 0 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CST /6 PM MST/ THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ030-043>045-061>064-074>078-084>088.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR KSZ031-046-065-
066-079>081-089-090.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GERARD
LONG TERM....JJOHNSON
AVIATION...GERARD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
211 PM CST MON FEB 20 2012
.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST CONCERNS...CONVECTIVE TRENDS THRU EARLY EVENING AND
THEN TEMPERATURE ROLLER-COASTER THRU THE END OF THE WEEK.
THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT
LATEST RUC AND HRRR WOULD SUGGEST 700-900 J/KG CAPE NEAR MAX
HEATING LATE THIS AFTERNOON JUST AHEAD OF SURFACE DRY-LINE/COLD
FRONT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS IN COMBO WITH STRONG
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT STRONG TO A FEW SEVERE STORMS
INTO THE EARLY EVENING TRANSITIONING FROM PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLINT HILLS. SEE
LATEST HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND SHORT TERM GRAPHICAST FOR
MORE DETAILS.
OTHERWISE...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN STOUT EVEN BEHIND THE FRONT
THIS EVENING...NEAR ADVISORY THRESHOLDS...SO 06Z/MIDNIGHT
EXPIRATION LOOKS FINE.
TUESDAY-FRIDAY
A RATHER SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MID-WEEK PERIOD WITHIN THE DEVELOPING MEAN WESTERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER TROF. THIS SUPPORTS THE GOING MAXS...
APPROACHING 70F IN MANY AREAS ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A MODERATE STRENGTH COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO SEASONAL CLIMO FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
SATURDAY-MONDAY
A MORE ZONAL UPPER FLOW PATTERN TO START OUT THE WEEKEND
WITH TEMPERATURES AGAIN MODERATING ABOVE SEASONAL CLIMO. THE
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS GENERALLY SUPPORT MEAN TROUGHING ALOFT
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS LATE IN THE PERIOD...WITH THE ECMWF
A BIT DEEPER WITH THIS TROF BY MONDAY. THE MAIN CHALLENGE IS
THE TIMING OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH
ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND POTENTIAL OF SIGNIFICANT COOLING
BEHIND THIS FRONT. FOR NOW FORECAST CONSENSUS WAS TO TREND
COOLER BY MONDAY...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW ON THE
MAGNITUDE...WITH POTENTIAL FOR MUCH COLDER AIR. WILL ALSO
CARRY SLIGHT TO MODEST POPS ALONG/JUST BEHIND THIS SOUTHWARD
SAGGING FRONT FOR NOW WHICH CAN BE REFINED WITH LATER RUNS.
DARMOFAL
&&
.AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
MVFR CIGS WILL HANG TOUGH THROUGH AT LEAST MID-
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH SOME CLEARING FROM THE WEST IS EXPECTED AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST. AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...VERY STRONG/GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL.
ADDITIONALLY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AROUND
20-21Z JUST WEST OF THE I-135 CORRIDOR. STORM MOTION WILL BE TO
THE NORTHEAST AT 50-60 MPH. A FEW STORMS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SMALL
TO MODERATE SIZE HAIL UP TO DIME/QUARTER SIZE...ALONG WITH GUSTY
WINDS. THE STORMS WILL MOVE RAPIDLY NORTHEAST...WITH VERY STRONG
WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING BY EARLY THIS EVENING BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT SWEEPING EAST ACROSS THE AREA...ALONG WITH MVFR TO LOW
VFR CIGS. CIGS AND WINDS WILL DISSIPATE BY LATE EVENING FROM WEST
TO EAST...CLEARING KCNU LAST.
KLEINSASSER
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO ELEVATE FIRE DANGER THROUGH THE
EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. DRIER AIR AND DIURNALLY GUSTY
WINDS MAY LEAD TO PERIODS OF ELEVATED FIRE DANGER DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
KED
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 28 57 33 68 / 20 0 0 0
HUTCHINSON 27 57 32 69 / 20 0 0 0
NEWTON 29 56 34 68 / 20 0 0 0
ELDORADO 30 56 34 67 / 30 0 0 0
WINFIELD-KWLD 29 58 33 69 / 20 0 0 0
RUSSELL 26 56 32 69 / 30 0 0 0
GREAT BEND 26 56 32 69 / 30 0 0 0
SALINA 28 57 33 69 / 30 0 0 0
MCPHERSON 28 57 33 68 / 30 0 0 0
COFFEYVILLE 33 59 34 69 / 60 0 0 0
CHANUTE 32 57 34 67 / 60 0 0 0
IOLA 32 56 34 66 / 60 0 0 0
PARSONS-KPPF 33 58 34 68 / 60 0 0 0
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR KSZ032-033-047>053-
067>070-082-083-091>094-098.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
1158 AM CST MON FEB 20 2012
.UPDATE...
STILL THINKING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AROUND 2PM
GENERALLY ALONG THE HIGHWAY 14 CORRIDOR AS MID-LEVEL COOLING
ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING STRONG SHORTWAVE OVERSPREADS A NARROW
LOW-LEVEL WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT/DRYLINE.
DESPITE DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE 40S AND DENSE CLOUDS...MODEST TO
PERHAPS STRONG HEATING IN WAKE OF DEPARTING CLOUD SHIELD AND JUST
AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL ZONE...IN CONCERT WITH STRONG MID-LEVEL
COOLING SHOULD SUPPORT A NARROW ZONE OF SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY
UP TO 500 J/KG BY MID-AFTERNOON. SHORT-TERM MODELS HAVE A GOOD
HANDLE ON THIS. PAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR-3KM MODEL HAVE
CONSISTENTLY DEVELOPED CONVECTION ALONG THE HIGHWAY 14 CORRIDOR BY
2PM...SPREADING THIS ACTIVITY RAPIDLY EAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. DESPITE THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY...EFFECTIVE
SHEAR OF 40-50KTS IN CONCERT WITH STRONG FORCING SHOULD ALLOW FOR
A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DIME-QUARTER
HAIL AND 50-60 MPH WINDS. ADDITIONALLY...MODEST LOW-LEVEL SHEAR
COUPLED WITH HINTS OF DEVELOPING 0-3KM INSTABILITY COULD RESULT IN
A FEW BRIEF/SMALL FUNNEL CLOUDS...ALTHOUGH CLIMATOLOGICALLY ITS
VERY HARD TO GET TORNADOES WITH DEWPOINTS BELOW 50 DEGREES.
KLEINSASSER
&&
.AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
MVFR CIGS WILL HANG TOUGH THROUGH AT LEAST MID-
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH SOME CLEARING FROM THE WEST IS EXPECTED AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST. AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...VERY STRONG/GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL.
ADDITIONALLY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AROUND
20-21Z JUST WEST OF THE I-135 CORRIDOR. STORM MOTION WILL BE TO
THE NORTHEAST AT 50-60 MPH. A FEW STORMS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SMALL
TO MODERATE SIZE HAIL UP TO DIME/QUARTER SIZE...ALONG WITH GUSTY
WINDS. THE STORMS WILL MOVE RAPIDLY NORTHEAST...WITH VERY STRONG
WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING BY EARLY THIS EVENING BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT SWEEPING EAST ACROSS THE AREA...ALONG WITH MVFR TO LOW
VFR CIGS. CIGS AND WINDS WILL DISSIPATE BY LATE EVENING FROM WEST
TO EAST...CLEARING KCNU LAST.
KLEINSASSER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 556 AM CST MON FEB 20 2012/
AVIATION...12Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS WILL BE LOWER CIGS THIS MORNING...STRONG
WINDS ALONG WITH CONVECTIVE CHANCES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
STRONG LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT INTO THE PLAINS TODAY.
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM SOUTH WINDS WILL BE QUITE STRONG ACROSS ALL TAF
SITES FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AN AREA OF
LOWER CIGS CURRENTLY STRETCHES ALONG AND WEST OF I-135 AND IS
PROGRESSING EAST. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THESE CIGS WILL NOT
DROP TO IFR LEVELS...FEEL THEY WILL BOUNCE BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR FOR
MOST OF THE MORNING.
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE
COLD FRONT/DRYLINE. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG OR JUST WEST
OF I-135 AFTER 18Z AND WILL RAPIDLY PUSH EAST. WHILE WIDESPREAD
SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED...A FEW OF THE STRONGER CELLS MAY
PRODUCE NICKEL TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL.
AS THIS STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST...STRONG
WEST AND NORTHWEST WINDS WILL MOVE-IN FROM THE WEST AFTER 00Z AND
WILL BE SUSTAINED AROUND 35 MPH WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 40 AND 45 MPH.
THESE HIGH WIND SPEEDS WILL DIE OFF AROUND 06Z.
LAWSON
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 AM CST MON FEB 20 2012/
DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN/CHALLENGE IS PRECIPITATION AND WINDS TODAY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS
KANSAS.
SYNOPSIS:
A DEEP TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS THIS MORNING AND
WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER SYSTEM IMPACTING THE AREA TODAY. AT THE
SURFACE A LOW IS DEEPENING IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WITH STRONG
SOUTHERLY GRADIENT WINDS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AHEAD OF THE LOW.
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME.
TODAY - TONIGHT:
THIS WILL BE THE TRICKIEST PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. THE SURFACE LOW
WILL TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TODAY. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP LOW WILL CAUSE WINDS TO HOWL
ACROSS THE AREA. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE STRONG DURING THE DAY WITH
WARM AIR ADVECTION AND HAVE KEPT THE CURRENT WIND ADVISORY IN
PLACE. HOWEVER...DID ADD RUSSELL AND BARTON COUNTIES TO THE
ADVISORY WITH THE CONCERN ABOUT STRONG WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS JUST AS STRONG AND DESPITE THE FACT THAT IT
WILL BE MOVING THROUGH NEAR TO AFTER SUNSET THE GRADIENT WINDS WILL
KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED. SO HAVE ALSO EXTENDED THE ADVISORY
TIME FROM UNTIL 06Z. THE ONE WIND ADVISORY WILL COVER BOTH THE
STRONG SOUTH WINDS AND STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AS WE DECIDED TO KEEP
ONE ADVISORY INSTEAD OF TRYING TO SEPARATE IT AND CONFUSE PEOPLE.
BOTTOM LINE IT IS GOING TO BE VERY WINDY TODAY.
THE NEXT MAIN CHALLENGE IS THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY. AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS AND THE HRRR HAS HAD A REALLY GOOD HANDLE ON
IT SINCE THE 03/04Z RUN. THE LATER HRRR RUNS ARE SOMEWHAT IN LINE
WITH WHAT THE NAM HINTS AT...KEEPING THE MAIN PRECIPITATION SHOW
LATER IN THE DAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN KANSAS. THE 06Z/HRRR
ALBEIT A LITTLE BULLISH ON THE INTENSITY SHOWS THE LINE OF
PRECIPITATION MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH THE
WARM AIR ADVECTION/MOISTURE TRANSPORT. THEN AFTER IT MOVES THROUGH
IT KEEPS THE FORECAST DRY UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON...MUCH LIKE THE
NAM IS SHOWING. HAVE TRIED TO TREND THAT WAY WITH POPS...DECREASING
THEM EARLIER IN THE DAY AND INCREASING THEM TOWARD THE AFTERNOON.
THE NAM ALSO INDICATES THAT THE DRYSLOT WILL TRY TO MOVE INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS WILL HELP TEMPERATURES AND THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL AS THE COLD FRONT/DRY LINE MOVES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
LOW LEVEL ML AND MU CAPE INDICATE ABOUT 500-1000 J/KG POSSIBLE
AROUND 21Z ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THE POSSIBILITY FOR LOW
TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS AND POSSIBLY SOME ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. SEVERE HAIL AND WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN A
FEW ISOLATED EVENTS...BUT WIDESPREAD SEVERE ACTIVITY IS NOT
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
TUESDAY - WEDNESDAY:
THE PATTERN CALMS SOME AFTER TODAY DESPITE A COUPLE MORE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS. HOWEVER THE MAIN ENERGY WILL STAY NORTH
WHICH WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR. THE COLD FRONT TODAY WILL SWEEP
ALL MOISTURE SOUTHWARD KEEPING IT DRY. LOW LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS
WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA BOTH DAYS AND ALTHOUGH THEY WILL NOT
BE SUPER STRONG...10-15 MPH WINDS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DOWNSLOPE
WILL HELP TEMPERATURES WARM TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL. INCREASED
TEMPERATURES BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BUT MORE DRASTICALLY
WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
AREA.
THURSDAY - FRIDAY:
BY THURSDAY THE NEXT FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE KEPT
THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW...BUT THE LATEST 00Z/ECMWF DOES HINT AT THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME PRECIPITATION. CONFIDENCE IS LOW OF ANY
PRECIPITATION WITH THE LACK OF ANY RETURN FLOW DURING THE WEEK. THE
FRONT WILL AT THE MINIMUM SHIFT THE WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST AND LOWER
TEMPERATURES BACK NEARER TO NORMAL...IN THE UPPER 40S.
SATURDAY - SUNDAY:
THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS BEGINS TO DIVERGE BY THE END OF
THE WEEK. AFTER THE WAVE THAT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY...THEY INDICATE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WITH THE NEXT WAVE MOVING IN BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM
DIVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE GUIDANCE DOES SHOW A POTENT
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY...BEYOND THIS
FORECAST...BUT BECAUSE OF THE DRASTIC DIFFERENCES IN TIMING...HAVE
KEPT THE FORECAST DRY AND TEMPERATURES AT MODEL CONSENSUS WHICH IS
IN THE LOW 50S. STAY TUNED AS THE FORECAST EVOLVE.
BILLINGS
FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER WILL BE A CONCERN TODAY ACROSS THE WHOLE AREA WITH THE
GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER INDEX REACHING INTO VERY HIGH AND APPROACHING
EXTREME OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE VERY
STRONG THROUGHOUT THE DAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE HAVE A WIND
ADVISORY IN EFFECT WHICH MEANS THAT WINDS WILL BE SUSTAINED AROUND
30 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH. WINDS WILL THEN SWITCH TO THE
NORTHWEST AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND WILL THEN BE 30-35 MPH WITH
GUSTS NEAR 40-45 MPH. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT THE WINDS WILL CAUSE ANY FIRE THAT STARTS
TO QUICKLY BECOME DANGEROUS.
BILLINGS
AVIATION...06Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
AS HAS BEEN THE CASE OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF WEEKS...MODELS STRUGGLED
WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. 0000 UTC RUNS LOOK A BIT BETTER THAN THE
18Z ONES...ESPECIALLY WITH RUC/NAM/HRRR BEING MORE GENEROUS WITH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS TRANSLATES TO EARLIER/MORE EXTENSIVE
CLOUDS...WITH VERY HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF MVFR AND SOME CHANCE OF IFR
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY AT KRSL/KHUT. PRECIPITATION TIMING IS A
BIT UNCERTAIN...WITH ONE DECENT IMPULSE MOVING THROUGH IN A FEW
HOURS PER WATER VAPOR LOOP...AND THEN MORE ASSOCIATED WITH
FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE/SPEED MAXIMUM AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH. SO
SUSPECT ISOLATED/SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL REDEVELOP/LINGER INTO
LATE MORNING AT KSLN/KHUT/KICT. PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT KCNU LOOK
A BIT LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME. DRY SLOT WILL WORK ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH LOW CLOUDS/GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE EVENING. -HOWERTON
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 56 28 58 34 / 50 20 0 0
HUTCHINSON 56 28 58 34 / 50 20 0 0
NEWTON 54 29 57 35 / 60 20 0 0
ELDORADO 55 30 57 34 / 60 30 0 0
WINFIELD-KWLD 57 29 59 34 / 60 20 0 0
RUSSELL 54 27 57 33 / 40 30 0 10
GREAT BEND 56 26 57 33 / 30 30 0 10
SALINA 56 28 59 34 / 50 30 0 0
MCPHERSON 55 28 59 34 / 50 30 0 0
COFFEYVILLE 56 33 59 36 / 50 60 10 10
CHANUTE 55 33 58 35 / 50 60 10 0
IOLA 54 32 58 36 / 50 60 10 0
PARSONS-KPPF 56 33 59 34 / 50 60 10 10
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR KSZ032-033-047>053-
067>070-082-083-091>094-098.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PADUCAH KY
1236 PM CST MON FEB 20 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CST MON FEB 20 2012
MIDDAY UPDATE FOR 18Z ROUTINE TAF ISSUANCE AND SHORT TERM
MODIFICATIONS TO WEATHER FOR LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY
/MAINLY MIDNIGHT THROUGH NOON ON TUESDAY/
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CST MON FEB 20 2012
THE VERY NEAR TERM CHALLENGES FOR TODAY HAVE BEEN ACCOUNTING FOR
SLOWER SURFACE DEWPOINT CHANGES /DRIER AIR/ MIXING ACROSS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER THIS AFTERNOON. MINOR MODIFICATIONS WERE MADE USING
THE 12KM NAM-WRF AND 3KM HRRR GUIDANCE...ADJUSTING THE THE NAM-WRF
GUIDANCE DOWN BETWEEN 1-3 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON.
THE FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY...THE MAIN CHALLENGE
THIS MORNING AND CONTINUES TO BE THIS AFTERNOON THE DEGREE OF
ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN PLACE WITH THE NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE
AND THE AVAILABLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE...BOTH WHICH ARE SOMEWHAT
LIMITED. UTILIZING THE MOST UNSTABLE SHORT RANGE MODEL /12KM NAM-
WRF/...CAPE VALUES NEAR OR ABOVE 100 /JOULES/KG/E-2 WILL ONLY BE
NOTED IN A SMALL WINDOW OVER SOUTHEAST IL/SOUTHWEST IN/NORTHWEST
KY BETWEEN 10-14Z AT MOST. WILL NEED TO ADDRESS THAT FOR THE MID-
AFTERNOON SHORT TERM UPDATE.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST MON FEB 20 2012
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...THE IMMEDIATE FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A DEEP MID LEVEL TROUGH FORECAST TO PIVOT FROM
THE CENTRAL U.S. MID WEEK TO THE EAST COAST BY THE WEEKEND. GFS...
ECMWF...AND GEM ARE ALL IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO THE
OVERALL PATTERN...AND THIS LENDS INCREASED CONFIDENCE TO THE
LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST.
STARTING WITH THURSDAY...THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE BY AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE DRAGS A COLD FRONT INTO
THE QUAD STATE REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW OUT
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER WARM DAY...AS HIGHS ARE
FORECAST TO TOP OUT IN THE MID 60S...POSSIBLY EVEN WARMER DEPENDING
ON THE DEGREE OF INSOLATION. SHOWER CHANCES WILL INCREASE MARKEDLY
THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION.
SHOWALTER AND K INDICES SUGGEST ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO ADD
A SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER MENTION TO THE SOUTHERN PENNYRILE AREA OF
WESTERN KENTUCKY.
FRIDAY IS A BIT UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...AND WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON
HOW QUICKLY THE WEATHER SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA. FOR NOW...
LINGERED SMALL RAIN CHANCES MAINLY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
TEMPERATURES DURING THIS ENTIRE TIME WILL BE WAY TOO WARM FOR
ANYTHING OTHER THAN RAIN. BEHIND THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP
TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLES OVERHEAD. RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
ON SUNDAY WILL MAKE FOR WINDY CONDITIONS AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
CLIMB BACK ABOVE NORMAL. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS AS THOUGH ANY
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT WEATHER
SYSTEM DRAWS CLOSER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CST MON FEB 20 2012
CHALLENGE WAS THE TIMING OF CLOUD COVER AND POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. A SLIGHTLY TIME ADJUSTED 12Z GFS
GUIDANCE WAS USED TO MOVE CLOUDS/SHOWERS THROUGH THE AREA. THERE
DOES EXIST SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY CLOSER TO 700 MB...SO ADDED A
MENTION OF CB DURING THE 06-13Z TUESDAY TIME FRAME IN THE
TAFS. THE PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS APPEARED TO BE TOO LOW TO
WARRANT A MENTION AT THIS TIME IN ANY OF THE TAFS. THE GFS
APPEARED TO SATURATE THE LOW LEVELS QUICKLY AFTER 09Z...SO HAD TO
ADD A MENTION OF MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AT MOST OF THE WFO
PAH TAF SITES AFTER THAT TIME.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SMITH
SHORT TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...SMITH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
346 PM EST MON FEB 20 2012
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM EST MON FEB 20 2012
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW UPR RDG OVER THE
GREAT LKS BTWN TROF IN SE CAN AND ANOTHER IN THE PLAINS. AT THE
SFC...UPR MI LIES UNDER A SHARPENING PRES GRADIENT BTWN SFC HI PRES
OVER OH AND LOWER PRES IN THE PLAINS UNDER THE TROF. ALTHOUGH HI
CLDS ARE STREAMING OVHD IN THE SW FLOW ALF...12Z RAOBS TO THE S AT
GRB/MPX/AND QUAD CITIES IA SHOW DRY LO/MID LVLS. SINCE THE SUN IS
JUST FILTERED A BIT BY THESE HI CLDS...TEMPS HAVE REBOUNDED TO WELL
ABV NORMAL LVLS AGAIN AND WELL INTO THE 30S AT MOST SPOTS EARLY THIS
AFTN. ALTHOUGH THERE A LARGER SCALE TROF IN THE PLAINS...SEVERAL OUT
OF PHASE SHRTWVS ARE PRESENT WITHIN THE BROADER AREA OF LOWER HGTS.
THE STRONGEST OF THESE IS OVER THE SCNTRL PLAINS...WITH ANOTHER OVER
SASKATCHEWAN.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS THRU TUE REVOLVE ARND PCPN CHCS TNGT/TUE RELATED
TO EWD PROGRESSION OF PLAINS TROF AND EMBEDDED SHRTWVS. RECENT MODEL
RUNS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING SHRTWVS/ASSOCIATED SFC LO
CENTERS REMAINING OUT OF PHASE THRU TUE...WHICH WILL LIMIT PCPN
TOTALS OVER THE CWA. IN GENERAL...FOLLOWED THE GFS FOR FCST DETAILS
AT THIS MODEL SHOWS MORE PERSISTENT LLVL DRY AIR WITH MORE MSTR TIED
TO THE STRONGER SRN DISTURBANCE FCST TO TRACK THRU THE LOWER LKS.
TNGT...SHRTWV OVER SASKATCHEWAN IS FCST TO DIG TOWARD MN BY 12Z
WHILE SRN DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO ILLINOIS. PREFERRED GFS SHOWS MORE
IMPRESSIVE QVECTOR CNVGC TENDING TO REMAIN TO THE W AND S OF THE FA.
SINCE SLOWLY BACKING WINDS FM THE SSW TOWARD THE SE WL MAINTAIN LLVL
DRY AIR FEED...PREFERRED GFS MODEL INDICATES PERSISTENT DRY WEDGE IN
THE LLVLS PERSISTING THRU 12Z OVER UPR MI. SO EXCEPT FOR WRN LK
SUP...WHICH WL BE CLOSEST TO INCOMING DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
NRN DISTURBANCE...TENDED TO CUT POPS OVER THE CWA. DESPITE LINGERING
DRY AIR IN THE LLVLS...A STRONGER SW FLOW AND THICKENING HI CLDS WL
PREVENT TEMPS FM FALLING AS SHARPLY AS THE LAST FEW NIGHTS.
TUE...WHILE SRN SHRTWV MOVES ENEWD WELL S OF THE FA...THE NRN
DISTURBANCE IS FCST TO DRIFT EWD INTO THE UPR LKS. WITH INCRSG DPVA/
LLVL MOISTENING/LARGE SCALE QVECTOR CNVGC/SOME UPR DVGC...EXPECT
INCRSG POPS TOWARD CATEGORICAL IN THE AFTN. HOWEVER...SINCE MOST OF
THE DYNAMICS WL BE SPENT SATURATING THE INITIALLY DRY LO/MID LVLS...
PCPN AMNTS WL BE RELATIVELY LGT AND UNDER 0.25 INCH. ALTHOUGH MAX
TEMPS WL TOP OUT OVER 32 ALMOST EVERYWHERE...DYNAMIC/WBLB COOLING
SHOULD KEEP PCPN IN THE FORM OF SN PER GFS FCST SNDGS AND H100-85
THKNS/WBZ HGT BLO CRITICAL LVLS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM EST MON FEB 20 2012
THE SLOW MOVING 500MB LOW OVER CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN THIS AFTERNOON
WILL BE OVER N MN/W LAKE SUPERIOR AT 00Z WEDNESDAY...SETTING US UP
FOR AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.
EXPECT THE 500MB LOW TO BE DIRECTLY OVER UPPER MI AT 06Z
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE 20/06Z GFS SHOWING MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE INSTEAD
OF A CLOSED LOW. THE RESULT IS A MORE PROGRESSIVE /THAN THE
CONSENSUS AND ITS 20/00Z RUN/. EVEN AT THE SFC THE LOW IS QUITE A
BIT FARTHER TO THE SOUTH...BUT WITHIN REASON. ANOTHER DISCREPANCY
WOULD BE FROM THE 20/06Z NAM...WITH IS ON THE SLOW SIDE NEARLY RIGHT
OFF THE BAT. THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE PLACEMENT OF THE FASTER GFS
AND SLOWER NAM IS ROUGHLY 240MI. EXPECT THE ELONGATED TO DOUBLE
BARREL SFC LOW STRETCHING FROM N MN TO SE IA AT 12Z TUESDAY TO
DEEPEN ACROSS E LAKE SUPERIOR TUESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE SLIDING ALMOST
DIRECTLY E INTO S QUEBEC LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. WHILE A
SFC TROUGH WILL LINGER BEHIND THE EXITING LOW...IT WILL BE OF SHORT
DURATION...AS A SFC RIDGE QUICKLY BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW. ANOTHER HINDRANCE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL BE THE
RELATIVELY MILD 850MB TEMPS NEAR -8C...AND PREDOMINANT WNW WINDS
BEHIND THE SFC LOW. WHILE LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE
LOW MOVES OVERHEAD...SHIFTING WINDS WILL DETER SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS.
THE BEST CHANCE OF RECEIVING 2-5 INCHES WOULD BE FROM IWD TO
CMX.
THE NEXT 500MB FEATURE OF IMPORTANCE WILL BE IN THE FORM OF A S
CENTRAL CANADIAN TROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SLIDING ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE CONSENSUS IS TO HAVE THIS TROUGH
DEEPEN INTO A LOW UPPER MI FRIDAY...BEFORE MOVING INTO S QUEBEC
FRIDAY NIGHT. WHILE THE ORIGINS OF THE SFC LOW...OVER SASKATCHEWAN
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WOULD INDICATE ANOTHER LOW WITH LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...ITS PROGRESSION WILL ALLOW THE GULF
TO OPEN UP. EXPECT THE SFC LOW TO RESIDE BETWEEN CENTRAL WI/CENTRAL
LOWER MI/CENTRAL UPPER MI AT 18Z THURSDAY /WITH THE ECMWF FARTHER
SOUTH THAN THIS/...AND A COLD FRONT DRAGGING ACROSS IL/MO/AND INTO
NE TX. THE SFC LOW SHOULD DEEPEN AS IT SLIDES EAST OF OUR
AREA...THURSDAY NIGHT NEAR THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...AND FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING OVER S QUEBEC. AS THE SYSTEM DEEPENS AND TAPS INTO
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC IT SHOULD WRAP IN STEADY N
WINDS SLOWLY BECOMING NW...AND PLENTY OF COLD AIR TO OUR REGION
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. 850MB TEMPS AT THIS POINT
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BECOMES FAIRLY WEEK WITH A SFC RIDGE NEARLY
OVERHEAD.
PRECIPITATION TYPE MAY BE A CONCERN FOR THIS SYSTEM OVER THE SE
CORNER OF THE CWA RIGHT ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN. 850MB TEMPS OF THE
20/06Z GFS ARE AROUND -4C...WITH THE MNM SOUNDING SHOWING
INDICATIONS OF RA FROM MID MORNING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAYTIME HOURS THURSDAY. THE EVEN WARMER/MORE WRAPPED UP 20/00Z
CANADIAN WOULD HAVE 850MB TEMPS AROUND -2C OVER THE ENTIRE CWA
AROUND 12Z THURSDAY...LINGERING EAST AS THE LOW EXITS EARLY THURSDAY
EVENING. WILL NOT CONCENTRATE TOO MUCH ON THIS...AS THERE ARE LARGER
DISCREPANCIES...WITH THE NAM AND ECMWF NOT TOO ENTHUSED ABOUT THE
NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE SYSTEM...WITH THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE
REMAINING OVER IL/IN/OH. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW GOOD RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY...WITH A BLEND LOOKING REASONABLE AT THIS TIME. THE 12Z
RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF KEPT WITH A MORE SOUTHERLY SOLUTION FOR
THIS SYSTEM...CLOSER TO THE 00Z RUN OF THE ECMWF. THIS TREND WOULD
CONTINUE TO LIMIT THE MENTION OF RAIN NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. NO MATTER
WHICH SOLUTION OR GROUP OF SOLUTIONS IS PREFERRED...850MB TEMPS
SHOULD FALL BETWEEN -12 AND -16C FROM FRIDAY NIGHT ON...WITH
FAVORABLE WINDS OFF LAKE SUPERIOR PRODUCING LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW
SHOWERS.
BEYOND FRIDAY NIGHT THE 20/06Z GFS AND 20/00Z ECMWF BECOME OUT OF
PHASE. THIS IS BEST INDICATED BY THE LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/SUNDAY
NIGHT TRENDS AT 500MB OVER THE GREAT LAKES...WITH THE ECMWF
INDICATING A RIDGE AND THE GFS A TROUGH. THIS IS MAINLY DUE TO THE
HANDLING OF THE LOW EJECTING E SATURDAY. THE ECMWF IS ON THE QUICKER
SIDE...WHILE THE LAST 2 GFS RUNS CONTINUE TO DEEPEN THE LOW AS IT
SHIFTS INTO FAR EASTERN CANADA. AS A RESULT...WILL NOT TRY TO PIN
POINT SPECIFICS BEYOND SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM EST MON FEB 20 2012
ALTHOUGH THERE WL BE AN INCRS IN MID/HI CLDS AS LO PRES TROF IN THE
PLAINS MIGRATES SLOWLY TO THE E...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL
THRU TNGT WITH LLVL SSE FLOW MAINTAINING DRY AIR BLO 10K FT. AS THE
PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER UPR MI...MAINTAINED FCST LLWS AT ALL 3
SITES FOR AT LEAST A TIME TNGT BEFORE GRADIENT WEAKENS LATE. AS THE
LO PRES TROF TO THE W MOVES CLOSER ON TUE AND SOME -SN OVERSPREADS
THE AREA...MVFR CONDITIONS WL PREDOMINATE BY LATE MRNG.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 346 PM EST MON FEB 20 2012
WITH AN UNSEASONABLY WEAK PRES GRADIENT FORECAST THIS WEEK...EXPECT
WINDS NO HIER THAN 25 KTS. NO GALES ARE FORECAST IN THE NEAR FUTURE.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
340 PM CST MON FEB 20 2012
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
THE MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE COVERAGE OF THE
PRECIPITATION THAT RE-DEVELOPS AND PRECIP
TYPE...CONVECTION...RAIN/SNOW MIX.
THE 12Z UPPER AIR CHARTS SHOWED A 110+KT JET OVER NEW MEXICO
ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROF. THE H5 LOW WAS OVER NORTHEAST
COLORADO WITH 130M HEIGHT FALLS AT DENVER. THE H7 LOW WAS NEAR KLBF
WITH H7-H5 LAPSE RATES OF 7.5 DEG C/KM AHEAD OF THE H7 LOW. THE H85
LOW WAS NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED BTWN RAPID CITY AND NORTH PLATTE.
BOTH DDC AND OMA REPORTED 50KT H85 WINDS. AT MIDDAY...THE SURFACE
MAP HAD SFC LOW PRESSURE NEAR LEXINGTON AND PER THE VISIBLE
STLT...THERE WAS NOTICEABLE CLEARING JUST AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW. SFC
TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE MID 30S IN THE NORTH TO THE MID AND
UPPER 40S TOWARD FAIRBURY AND FALLS CITY. THE WSR-88D RADAR MOSAIC
LOOP FROM THIS MORNING AND METARS SHOWED THAT TEMPERATURES WARMED
ABOVE FREEZING...HOWEVER SNOW AND SLEET DID MOVE ACROSS THE NORFOLK
AND WAYNE AREAS WITH VSBYS DOWN TO 2SM. 6HR PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS THROUGH 18Z WERE LIGHT...GENERALLY .15 OR LESS. THERE WERE
A FEW LIGHTNING STROKES NEAR BVN/OLU/OFK. BY 19Z...THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION HAD SHIFTED NORTH AND EAST OUT OF EASTERN
NEBRASKA...WITH THE NORTH TO SOUTH BAND ACROSS WRN IOWA. OUTSIDE OF
OUR AREA...WEST OF THE SURFACE LOW IN WESTERN NEBRASKA...SNOW WAS
FALLING...MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES FROM VALENTINE TO IMPERIAL.
AT 21Z...A NARROW LINE OF CONVECTION WAS DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL
KANSAS...WITH A FEW WARNINGS BEING ISSUED. THIS CONVECTION IS
PROGRESSING NORTH AND EAST. AT 00Z THE THETA-E AXIS IS PROGGED TO
STRETCH FROM ERN NEB INTO ERN KANSAS AND ZERO OR LOWER BEST
LIFTED INDEX VALUES ARE OVER THE NEB/KS BORDER AHEAD OF THE SFC
LOW. THE LATEST HRRR TENDS TO TAKE THE BETTER CONVECTION SOUTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER...DID INCLUDE THUNDERSTORM MENTION
OVER THE SOUTHEAST NEB WITH DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN FARTHER
NORTH...AND A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW MOVING EAST DURING THE EVENING.
THE RUC AND 18Z NAM SHOW THE BAND OF SNOW WEAKENING AS IT MOVES
INTO THE FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
OMEGA/FRONTOGENESIS/DEPTH OF COLD AIR TO SWITCH IT OVER TO LIGHT
SNOW. DID INCLUDE SOME MINOR SNOW AMOUNTS IN PARTS OF ECNTRL/NE
NEB TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. TREND AFTER 06Z IS FOR THE SYSTEM TO BE
MOVING OUT...WITH WESTERLY FLOW FOR TUESDAY.
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL BRING MODERATE TEMPERATURES AND VARIABLE CLOUDS. THE MODELS
HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES ON THE CHC FOR PRECIPITATION DURING THIS
PERIOD. FOR NOW INCLUDED SOME SPRINKLES WEDNESDAY AND WITH THE
COLDER AIR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...A RAIN SNOW MIX IN THE
NORTH.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.THE LONG TERM PERIOD
WILL BEGIN WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND THE
EASTERN NORTHERN PLAINS. A SHORTWAVE SHOULD BE EXITING OUR AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT SO WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST THEN. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO DROP THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ON BACK SIDE OF
UPPER TROUGH ON FRIDAY...WITH MODELS SHOWING VARYING DEGREES OF
INTENSITY AND LOCATION. GFS IS THE STRONGEST AND FARTHEST
WEST...WHICH WOULD BRING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW TO OUR
AREA...WHILE ECMWF/CANADIAN TRACK SHORTWAVE TO OUR EAST. WILL STAY
WITH MAJORITY OF MODEL SOLUTIONS WHICH MATCH OUR CURRENT DRY
FORECAST. HOWEVER ALL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST A RATHER CHILLY DAY FRIDAY
AS AT LEAST MODERATE COLD ADVECTION SHOULD KEEP HIGHS IN THE 30S.
A WARMING TREND STILL LOOKS ON TAP FOR THE WEEKEND AS UPPER FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL IN WAKE OF EXITING UPPER TROUGH AND AHEAD OF
LOWERING HEIGHTS ALONG THE WEST COAST. AGAIN TODAY MODELS HAVE
DIFFERING OPINIONS ON TIMING AND EXTENT OF WARMING BASED ON
DIFFERING UPPER FLOW SOLUTIONS. FOR THE MOST PART...ALL MODELS SHOW
LOWERING HEIGHTS IN THE WEST...BUT SOME ARE HINTING AT A SIGNIFICANT
PIECE OF ENERGY MOVING FROM THE ROCKIES ACROSS THE PLAINS ON SUNDAY.
GFS IS THE MOST BULLISH IN THIS REGARD...AND HAS NOT WAVERED FROM
RUN TO RUN. HOWEVER...GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE SPLIT...WITH A
PLURALITY LEANING TOWARD A 00Z ECMWF SOLUTION KEEPING MORE ENERGY
DROPPING INTO THE SOUTHWEST STATES AND MAINTAINING ZONAL OR
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN THE PLAINS THROUGH SUNDAY. THE NEW 12Z ECMWF
MAINTAINS THIS PHILOSOPHY...SO HAVE SIDED WITH THIS THOUGHT FOR THE
WEEKEND.
USING ECMWF...HIGHS SATURDAY SHOULD REBOUND BACK INTO THE
40S BUT SUNDAY IS STILL IN QUESTION. BAROCLINIC ZONE LOOKS TO SET UP
NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS OUR CWA WITH THE 0C 850 LINE NEAR INTERSTATE
80. STRONG ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL COMMENCE SUNDAY AFTERNOON UNDER
COUPLED JET STRUCTURE...SUGGESTING LIFT OVER BAROCLINIC ZONE COULD
LEAD TO PRECIPITATION IN OUR NORTH. THICKNESSES SUPPORT SNOW
THERE...BUT WARM LOW LEVEL TEMPS COULD CHANGE THAT TO RAIN. SO A MIX
OF PRECIP WILL BE ADDED TO FORECAST SUNDAY. CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL LIKELY LIMIT HIGHS TO THE 30S IN OUR
NORTH. THIS TREND CONTINUES INTO MONDAY AS SURFACE LOW TRACKS TO OUR
SOUTH...MAINTAINING BAROCLINICITY ACROSS OUR AREA WITH A NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTATION. TRACK OF LOW PUTS OUR SOUTHEAST CWA IN
FAVORABLE AREA FOR RAIN THEN...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE 20S OR
LOWER 30S NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 30S SOUTHEAST. THERE IS A LOT OF
ROOM FOR ERROR SUNDAY AND MONDAY GIVEN PROXIMITY OF BAROCLINIC
ZONE...SO RELATIVELY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KOMA AND KLNK.
MVFR CIGS CURRENTLY COVERING MAJORITY OF ERN NEB...WITH IFR CIGS AND
SCT PCPN WRAPPING AROUND BACKSIDE OF DEEP SFC LOW PRESSURE CENTERED
IN SRN NEB. FOR THIS TAF CYCLE...PIVOTING SFC LOW AND DRY AIR
INTRUSION FROM THE SOUTHWEST MAKING FLIGHT CAT FORECAST RATHER
COMPLICATED. AT THIS POINT FEEL THAT IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE MOST
PREVALENT AT KOFK UNTIL ABOUT 21/04Z WITH TEMPO FOR PCPN BTWN 20
/21Z-24Z. CONDITIONS THEN IMPROVING MVFR TO VFR AROUND 21/11Z.
FOR KOMA AND KLNK...EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH
SITES THROUGH ABOUT 21/09Z. HOWEVER...AS SFC LOW MIGRATES
EAST...NARROW BAND OF PCPN MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE NEB/IA BORDER
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THUS HAVE PCPN PREVAILING AT KOMA THROUGH LATE
THIS EVENING.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
ZAPOTOCNY/DERGAN/DEE