Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 02/18/12
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
1035 AM MST THU FEB 16 2012
.UPDATE...CURRENT FORECASTS STILL ON TRACK. WILL LEAVE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW FOR THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS. STILL SOME MOISTURE
TRAPPED IN THE HIGHER AREAS. SO DESPITE THE WEAK OROGRAPHICS AND
LAPSE RATES...MAY SEE SOME FLURRIES THROUGH THE EVENING.
&&
.AVIATION...SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE INCREASED A BIT AT KDEN WHICH
HELPED FLUSH OUT ANY REMAINING HINTS AT FOG. CURRENT TAF TRENDS
LOOKING REASONABLE...FEW CHANGES NEEDED FOR THIS PACKAGE. SHOULD
BEGIN TO SEE SOME INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE SOMETIME
AFTER MIDNIGHT. CURRENT MODEL RUNS SUGGEST FRONT MOVING ACROSS
AREA AIRPORTS AROUND 20Z. POTENTIAL FOR CEILINGS OF AROUND 6000
FEET AGL DEVELOPING BY LATE AFTERNOON...ADDED A TEMPO GROUP AT
KDEN AFTER 20Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 AM MST THU FEB 16 2012/
SHORT TERM...SKIES HAVE ALREADY BECOME TO CLEAR EAST OF THE
MTNS EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE SHORTWAVE PASSES BY. THE CLEARING
HAS OPEN THE DOOR TO THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME FOG FORMATION ON THE
PLAINS IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. HRRR MODEL SHOWS POCKETS OF
SATURATED BNDRY LAYER AIR ALONG THE SOUTH PLATTE AND AROUND
D.I.A.. LATEST OBS FROM D.I.A. INDICATES 5 MILES IN FOG. COULD SEE
VSBYS AT D.I.A. BRIEFLY LOWERING TO 2-3 MILES BEFORE MIXING OUT
AROUND 15Z WITH ARRIVAL OF DRIER SWLY BREEZES. OTHERWISE THE FEW
REMAINING OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS UP ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF IN THE NEXT 4 HRS OR SO AND END IN MOST
AREAS BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION
ANTICIPATED. SHOULD SEE CLEARING THROUGH THE DAY WITH A DRIER
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH.
HIGH TEMPS TODAY ABOUT 8-10F WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH WARMEST
READINGS NEAR THE FOOTHILLS. STILL READINGS ABOUT 3-5F BELOW
AVERAGE FOR THE DATE.
LONG TERM...THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE NEXT WEEK WILL HAVE A
SERIES OF GENERALLY WEAK WAVES MOVING ACROSS COLORADO. THE
MOUNTAINS WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF BENEFITING FROM THESE
WAVES. THIS FIRST ONE WILL MOVE ACROSS COLORADO LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS.
THIS LOOKS LIKE A VERY LIGHT SNOWFALL AS OROGRAPHIC FLOW IS QUITE
WEAK...UNDER 10KT WHILE THE MOISTURE QG ASCENT ARE OUT OF PHASE.
EXPECT AMOUNTS AROUND AN INCH OR LESS. AS FOR THE NORTHEAST
PLAINS...THERE WILL BE A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING IN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON BUT NOT MUCH MOISTURE TO GENERATE ANY PRECIP WITH
GENERALLY A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK LIKELY.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS IN ON SATURDAY WITH A DRIER
AIRMASS IN PLACE STATEWIDE WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. THE
RIDGE ALOFT SHIFTS EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON SUNDAY IN
RESPONSE TO NEXT INCOMING PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS
STRONGER AND A BIT DEEPER BUT MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE QUITE VARIED IN
THE DEVELOPMENT AND HANDLING OF THE ENERGY. THE GFS SHOWS THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A CLOSED LOW NEAR THE 4 CORNERS ON LATE MONDAY
WHILE THE EUROPEAN SOLUTION IS MORE PROGRESSIVE AND WEAKER AS IT
MOVES ACROSS COLORADO. CURRENT WEATHER GRIDS ALREADY HAVE A CHANCE
OF SNOW OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AND THIS LOOKS FINE FOR NOW UNTIL
DETAILS BECOME A BIT CLEARER.
AVIATION...CLEARING SKIES HAS ALLOWED FOR POCKETS OF FOG TO FORM
IN AND NEAR D.I.A. IN THE PAST HOUR. SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE
POCKETS OF FOG FLOATING AROUND D.I.A. AND POINTS TO THE EAST-
NORTHEAST OF THE DENVER FOR THE NEXT 3-5 HOURS. COULD SEE THE
VISIBILITY BRIEF DROP TO 2 MILES OR SO AT D.I.A. BEFORE DRIER AIR
ARRIVES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE SHOULD GO
SOUTHWESTERLY AT 4-7KTS AFTER 15Z THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT DENVER AREA
AIRPORTS.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...D-L
LONG TERM....ENTREKIN
AVIATION...D-L
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
412 AM MST THU FEB 16 2012
.SHORT TERM...SKIES HAVE ALREADY BECOME TO CLEAR EAST OF THE
MTNS EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE SHORTWAVE PASSES BY. THE CLEARING
HAS OPEN THE DOOR TO THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME FOG FORMATION ON THE
PLAINS IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. HRRR MODEL SHOWS POCKETS OF
SATURATED BNDRY LAYER AIR ALONG THE SOUTH PLATTE AND AROUND
D.I.A.. LATEST OBS FROM D.I.A. INDICATES 5 MILES IN FOG. COULD SEE
VSBYS AT D.I.A. BRIEFLY LOWERING TO 2-3 MILES BEFORE MIXING OUT
AROUND 15Z WITH ARRIVAL OF DRIER SWLY BREEZES. OTHERWISE THE FEW
REMAINING OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS UP ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF IN THE NEXT 4 HRS OR SO AND END IN MOST
AREAS BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION
ANTICIPATED. SHOULD SEE CLEARING THROUGH THE DAY WITH A DRIER
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH.
HIGH TEMPS TODAY ABOUT 8-10F WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH WARMEST
READINGS NEAR THE FOOTHILLS. STILL READINGS ABOUT 3-5F BELOW
AVERAGE FOR THE DATE.
.LONG TERM...THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE NEXT WEEK WILL HAVE A
SERIES OF GENERALLY WEAK WAVES MOVING ACROSS COLORADO. THE
MOUNTAINS WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF BENEFITING FROM THESE
WAVES. THIS FIRST ONE WILL MOVE ACROSS COLORADO LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS.
THIS LOOKS LIKE A VERY LIGHT SNOWFALL AS OROGRAPHIC FLOW IS QUITE
WEAK...UNDER 10KT WHILE THE MOISTURE QG ASCENT ARE OUT OF PHASE.
EXPECT AMOUNTS AROUND AN INCH OR LESS. AS FOR THE NORTHEAST
PLAINS...THERE WILL BE A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING IN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON BUT NOT MUCH MOISTURE TO GENERATE ANY PRECIP WITH
GENERALLY A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK LIKELY.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS IN ON SATURDAY WITH A DRIER
AIRMASS IN PLACE STATEWIDE WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. THE
RIDGE ALOFT SHIFTS EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON SUNDAY IN
RESPONSE TO NEXT INCOMING PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS
STRONGER AND A BIT DEEPER BUT MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE QUITE VARIED IN
THE DEVELOPMENT AND HANDLING OF THE ENERGY. THE GFS SHOWS THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A CLOSED LOW NEAR THE 4 CORNERS ON LATE MONDAY
WHILE THE EUROPEAN SOLUTION IS MORE PROGRESSIVE AND WEAKER AS IT
MOVES ACROSS COLORADO. CURRENT WEATHER GRIDS ALREADY HAVE A CHANCE
OF SNOW OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AND THIS LOOKS FINE FOR NOW UNTIL
DETAILS BECOME A BIT CLEARER.
&&
.AVIATION...CLEARING SKIES HAS ALLOWED FOR POCKETS OF FOG TO FORM
IN AND NEAR D.I.A. IN THE PAST HOUR. SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE
POCKETS OF FOG FLOATING AROUND D.I.A. AND POINTS TO THE EAST-
NORTHEAST OF THE DENVER FOR THE NEXT 3-5 HOURS. COULD SEE THE
VISIBILITY BRIEF DROP TO 2 MILES OR SO AT D.I.A. BEFORE DRIER AIR
ARRIVES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE SHOULD GO
SOUTHWESTERLY AT 4-7KTS AFTER 15Z THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT DENVER AREA
AIRPORTS.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM....ENTREKIN
AVIATION...BAKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TALLAHASSEE FL
1000 PM EST Fri Feb 17 2012
.Update (Rest of Tonight)...
02Z water vapor and H4 RUC analysis shows a strong upper level
disturbance crossing the southern plains with a deep feed of
mid/upper level moisture streaming northward of it over the Gulf of
Mexico. This shortwave will move eastward and provide the energy for
a potential severe weather event later Saturday and into Saturday
night. More about this potential event with the early morning AFD.
For the remainder of tonight, the weather will remain generally
quiet. Have removed PoPs from the forecast in agreement with the
guidance consensus, with the exception of a slight chance for showers
returning to the Panhandle Coast after 4-5AM. Otherwise look for
mostly cloudy conditions and temperatures in the middle 50s to lower
60s. Have a good night.
&&
.AVIATION (Through 00Z Sunday)...
VFR/MVFR conditions this evening are expected to lower to IFR for
many of the terminals later tonight. In fact the lowest cigs are
likely to occur at most locations after sunrise Saturday morning and
linger toward midday when widespread IFR conditions are expected.
Will be optimistic and raise most locations back to MVFR for the
afternoon, however the more northern terminals such as KDHN and KABY
may stay low on cigs for much of the day. At this point the threat
for any strong to severe thunderstorms should hold off at KDHN and
KECP until the evening hours, and until after midnight further east.
&&
.MARINE...
This will be a bad weekend for boating with a strong cold front
moving through the area. Southerly winds and seas will increase
substantially on Saturday ahead of the front along with the threat
of strong to severe storms lasting into Saturday night. Behind the
front, strong westerly winds may gust to gale force with seas
exceeding 10 feet offshore. High surf and dangerous rip currents
are also expected along the panhandle beaches. Conditions should
gradually improve by early next week.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
No fire weather concerns are expected through the period.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 57 70 64 72 40 / 10 60 90 40 0
Panama City 58 69 64 67 41 / 20 90 90 10 0
Dothan 55 68 61 63 37 / 10 100 100 10 0
Albany 52 68 61 69 36 / 10 90 100 30 0
Valdosta 55 72 64 72 39 / 10 70 80 60 0
Cross City 57 75 64 72 39 / 10 40 60 60 0
Apalachicola 59 68 65 70 41 / 20 70 80 20 0
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
GA...None.
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
MROCZKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
227 AM CST THU FEB 16 2012
.DISCUSSION...
823 PM CST
THERE WERE SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST BUT
THE GENERAL THEME OF A WET NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING AT A
SNAILS PACE STILL LOOKS GOOD.
AFTER SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT AND LIMITED FOCUS...RAIN HAS SPREAD
OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. THIS APPEARS TO BE
THANKS IN PART TO A LEAD SHORT WAVE PER WV/PROFILER ANALYSIS AND
ASSOCIATED BETTER 850-700MB CONVERGENCE THAT LINES UP WELL WITH
RADAR RETURNS. GIVEN THE RUC ANALYSIS OF THIS FIELD...TRENDS ON
RADAR...AND HIGH AVAILABLE MOISTURE /BASICALLY 200 PERCENT OF
NORMAL PWATS ON DVN AND ILX RAOBS/...THE RAIN AXIS SHOULD
CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL HOURS WHILE GRADUALLY EXPANDING/EVOLVING
SOUTHEAST AS FORCING FROM THE MAIN UPPER LOW APPROACHES. THIS WAVE
STILL HAS A CLOSED CIRCULATION ON WATER VAPOR AND IS TRIGGERING
CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN MO. BUT THIS IS FORECAST TO DAMPEN IN
THE MORE CONFLUENT FLOW...LIMITING MORE INTENSE FORCING AND
DYNAMIC COOLING EFFECTS. SO WITH MORE LIMITED FORCING HAVE ADDED
DRIZZLE AND FOG MENTION IN THE FORECAST...ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT.
THE LOW T/TD SPREADS AND DECREASING FLOW WITH THE BAGGY SURFACE
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SHOULD FURTHER AID IN SOME AREAS OF LIGHT
FOG.
IT STILL IS POSSIBLE TO HAVE SOME WET NON-ACCUMULATING SNOW
TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT AND MAYBE A BRIEF
MIX TOWARDS CHICAGO AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS THU MORNING. WHILE THE
DVN RAOB DID COME IN AROUND 1-2C COOLER IN THE LOWER PROFILE THAN
THE 00Z RUC AND 18Z NAM...IT STILL DEPICTED NEARLY A 4500 FT THICK
LAYER NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING. IN THE ABSENCE OF STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION...A DECREASING CHANCE FOR SNOW IN THE FORECAST
CONTINUES. AS FOR THUNDER...SOME WEAK POSITIVE INSTABILITY IS
PRESENT ON THE ILX SOUNDING WHEN LIFTING PARCELS FROM 850 MB...BUT
THE BETTER ELEVATED INSTABILITY GRADIENT WHICH LINES UP WITH
ONGOING CONVECTION IN MO LOOKS TO STAY TO OUR SOUTH. POCKETS OF
ISOLATED HEAVIER RAIN HAVE BEEN SEEN PER DUAL-POL ANALYSIS. GOING
QPF FORECAST LOOKS ALRIGHT ON MAGNITUDE...BUT DID SHRINK THE AREAL
COVERAGE OF THE FORECAST ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH AND GREATER.
MTF
//PREV DISCUSSION...
317 PM...PRIMARY FORECAST FOCUS REMAINS APPROACHING SYSTEM WITH
MAINLY RAIN/SHOWERS TONIGHT.
AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOME SUN THIS MORNING...LOW CLOUDS SPREAD
NORTH AND DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH SOME SHOWERS MIDDAY
WHICH HAVE SINCE MOVED OVER THE LAKE. FAIRLY STRONG UPPER WAVE TO
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...THOUGH IT SLOWLY WEAKENS WITH TIME.
SCATTERED SHOWERS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING FROM KANSAS INTO SOUTHERN
IOWA AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
THIS EVENING INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A TREND OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN...OR THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
HEAVIEST RAIN...FALLING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA AND POINTS SOUTH
AND EAST. SO HAVE BACKED OFF ON QPF AMOUNTS SOME ESPECIALLY NORTH
WITH STRONGER CONVECTION FURTHER SOUTH TAKING SOME OF THE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE/QPF. THOUGH SINCE THERE COULD STILL BE SOME
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS...LOCALIZED RAINFALL TOTALS OF A HALF TO THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH ARE STILL POSSIBLE. THERE IS ALSO SOME SMALL
INSTABILITY ALOFT THAT MAY CAUSE A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER...
MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA AND WILL CONTINUE WITH NO
MENTION OF THUNDER.
AS FOR ANY SNOW POTENTIAL...NOT MUCH COLD AIR TO WORK WITH THIS
SYSTEM AND DEW POINTS ALREADY CREEPING UP INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS
NORTHERN IL. ANY SNOW WOULD LIKELY RESULT FROM PRECIP COOLING THE
COLUMN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE PRECIP LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING...RATHER THAN SHARP COLD AIR ADVECTION. AND BY
THE TIME THERE IS ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR PRECIP TO CHANGEOVER TO
SNOW...IT APPEARS PRECIP WILL BE ENDING. THUS HAVE MAINTAINED A
CHANCE OF SNOW ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST CWA OVERNIGHT AND THEN A
CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS MIXED THURSDAY MORNING...BUT EVEN
IF PRECIP WERE TO GO OVER TO SNOW...GROUND WOULD LIKELY BE WARM
ENOUGH AND WET ENOUGH THAT LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION WOULD RESULT.
AND AS NOTED...HUNG ONTO SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS THURSDAY MORNING BUT
ITS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT PRECIP MAY END BY SUNRISE MOST AREAS. IN
ADDITION...IF HEAVIER RAIN/SHOWERS DO END UP FURTHER SOUTH...
PRECIP MIGHT END UP BEING MORE DRIZZLE.
TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY IN THE LOWER 40S WILL SLOWLY FALL INTO THE
MID/UPPER 30S BUT FOR THE MOST PART WILL BE STEADY...PROBABLY NOT
DROPPING SIGNIFICANTLY UNTIL WIDESPREAD PRECIP BEGINS FALLING.
LOWS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST MAY DIP DOWN TO FREEZING BY MORNING BUT
MOST OF THE CWA LIKELY TO STAY JUST ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH
MORNING. CLOUDS BEGIN CLEARING BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING AND WITH
SOME SUN IN THE AFTERNOON...SHOULD SEE TEMPS WARM INTO THE LOWER
40S THURSDAY.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES BY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING FRIDAY AFTERNOON. DEPENDING ON THE EXTENT
OF INCREASING CLOUDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...TEMPS WARMING BACK INTO
THE MID/UPPER 40S SEEMS REASONABLE FROM THIS DISTANCE. MODELS THEN
BRING ACROSS ANOTHER WEAK SURFACE LOW FRIDAY NIGHT. APPEARS THE
BULK OF THE PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN ON THE NORTH SIDE
OF THIS LOW AND NORTH OF THE CWA...BUT A FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
APPEAR POSSIBLE ALONG THE TRAILING COLD FRONT LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING AND INTRODUCED LOW CHANCE POPS DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD. THIS COLD FRONT USHERS IN SOME COLDER AIR...THOUGH
THE MODELS DIFFER ON THE EXTENT OF JUST HOW COLD THIS AIR WILL
BE. DOESN/T APPEAR TOO COLD BUT HIGHS THIS WEEKEND LIKELY ONLY IN
THE 30S.
NEXT WEEK LOOKING BOTH UNSETTLED AND UNCERTAIN AS A POSSIBLE COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY WITH A STRONGER SYSTEM
LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY/SOUTHERN LAKES REGION
TOWARD MIDWEEK. CMS
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 08Z...
* IFR/LIFR CIGS TONIGHT... IMPROVING AFTER MID-MORNING.
* IFR VSBY WITH HEAVIER SHRA...MVFR VSBY OTHERWISE OVERNIGHT.
* MAY SEE IFR FOG DEVELOP BEHIND RA.
* GUSTY NW WIND DEVELOPING THU.
JEE
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
SYSTEM MOVING OVER THE MIDWEST IS RATHER DISORGANIZED BASED ON
CLOUD TOP TEMPS SEEN IR SATELLITE AND ON RADAR LOOPS. EVEN THOUGH
A WELL DEFINED UPPER LOW IS STILL SEEN OVER SW MO THERE APPEARS
TO BE MULTIPLE SMALLER SCALE IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE OVERALL
LARGE SCALE FLOW.
MID LEVEL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY MOVING OVER SOUTHERN WI AND
NORTHERN IL. TROUGH AXIS AND TRAILING EDGE OF RAIN CURRENTLY OVER
THE AREA EXPECTED TO BE E OF CHI VICINITY BY 07Z BASED ON LATEST
MODEL PROGS AND EXTRAPOLATION OF RECENT RADAR IMAGES.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER AREA OF RAIN CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL AND NE MO
INTO W CENTRAL IL WITH SOME DEVELOPMENT A BIT FURTHER DOWNSTREAM
TOWARDS N CENTRAL IL AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. APPEARS THAT
MAIN PORTION OF THIS AREA WILL PASS JUST S OF THE ORD AND MDW
THOUGH A COUPLE SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE TIL AXIS OF UPPER TROUGH
MOVES E AROUND 10Z.
BETWEEN RAINFALL DURING THE EVENING AND CONTINUED WEAK LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION ANTICIPATE IFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL EVEN AFTER
THE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH AS HIGHER DEW POINTS LAG A
BIT BEHIND THE TROUGH AND THERE IS ONLY A WEAK PUSH OF THE DRIER
AIR INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. MID AND UPPER TROUGHS PASS TO THE E
OVERNIGHT BUT LOWER LEVELS REMAIN SATURATED AND MAY SEE SOME
DRIZZLE DEVELOP DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS WEAK COLD AIR
ADVECTION IN THE LOWER LEVELS BEGINS.
BY DAYBREAK A DRYING NW LOW LEVEL FLOW IS TO HAVE BECOME MORE
ESTABLISHED IN THE WAKE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWS QUICK CLEARING OUT OF THE REMAINING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BY
MIDDAY THU SO EXPECT A QUICK JUMP FROM IFR CEILINGS TO PRETTY MUCH
SKC THEREAFTER THOUGH MAY A FEW STRATOCU AT LEAS INTO MID
AFTERNOON.
A FAIRLY STRONG SURFACE RIDGE IS TO BE BUILDING SE ACROSS THE
PLAINS LATE TONIGHT AND DURING THU RESULTING A MODERATELY STRONG
WNW-NW LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER THE LOCAL AREA BY THE TIME THE CLOUDS
CLEAR OUT. WITH SURFACE HEATING MIXED LAYER PROGGED TO DEEPEN TO
1-1.5KM WHICH WOULD ALLOW MOMENTUM TRANSFER OF 20-25KT WINDS AT
THIS LEVEL MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE RESULTING IN SOME GUSTINESS
FROM MIDDAY UNTIL SUNSET THU.
TRS
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 08Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH END TIME OF RA/DZ...AND ASSOCIATED VSBY.
* MEDIUM-LOW CONFIDENCE WITH MVFR VSBY THROUGH MORNING...MAY SEE
IFR FOG DEVELOP.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF CIG IMPROVEMENT TODAY.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.
JEE
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
FRIDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY...POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS.
SUNDAY...VFR.
MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...CHANCE RA AND/OR SN WITH MVFR.
TRS
&&
.MARINE...
205 AM CST
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN THIS
MORNING. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS UNTIL THIS OCCURS. HOWEVER...ONCE IT PASSES OVER THE LAKE
EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME WEST NORTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO 20 TO 25
KT BY LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
THE SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONSOLIDATE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
THE PLAINS WILL BUILD EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO
VALLEYS. THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS MAKE MICHIGAN
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THEREFORE WESTERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT WILL
CONTINUE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
THE WINDS WILL ABATE DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN FRIDAY NIGHT. ONCE THIS LOW
PASSES BY...WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE...RESULTING IN ANOTHER
EPISODE OF SOME GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 KT RANGE ON
SATURDAY.
KJB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-
ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ032-ILZ039 UNTIL 9 AM
THURSDAY.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
207 AM CST THU FEB 16 2012
.DISCUSSION...
823 PM CST
THERE WERE SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST BUT
THE GENERAL THEME OF A WET NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING AT A
SNAILS PACE STILL LOOKS GOOD.
AFTER SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT AND LIMITED FOCUS...RAIN HAS SPREAD
OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. THIS APPEARS TO BE
THANKS IN PART TO A LEAD SHORT WAVE PER WV/PROFILER ANALYSIS AND
ASSOCIATED BETTER 850-700MB CONVERGENCE THAT LINES UP WELL WITH
RADAR RETURNS. GIVEN THE RUC ANALYSIS OF THIS FIELD...TRENDS ON
RADAR...AND HIGH AVAILABLE MOISTURE /BASICALLY 200 PERCENT OF
NORMAL PWATS ON DVN AND ILX RAOBS/...THE RAIN AXIS SHOULD
CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL HOURS WHILE GRADUALLY EXPANDING/EVOLVING
SOUTHEAST AS FORCING FROM THE MAIN UPPER LOW APPROACHES. THIS WAVE
STILL HAS A CLOSED CIRCULATION ON WATER VAPOR AND IS TRIGGERING
CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN MO. BUT THIS IS FORECAST TO DAMPEN IN
THE MORE CONFLUENT FLOW...LIMITING MORE INTENSE FORCING AND
DYNAMIC COOLING EFFECTS. SO WITH MORE LIMITED FORCING HAVE ADDED
DRIZZLE AND FOG MENTION IN THE FORECAST...ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT.
THE LOW T/TD SPREADS AND DECREASING FLOW WITH THE BAGGY SURFACE
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SHOULD FURTHER AID IN SOME AREAS OF LIGHT
FOG.
IT STILL IS POSSIBLE TO HAVE SOME WET NON-ACCUMULATING SNOW
TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT AND MAYBE A BRIEF
MIX TOWARDS CHICAGO AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS THU MORNING. WHILE THE
DVN RAOB DID COME IN AROUND 1-2C COOLER IN THE LOWER PROFILE THAN
THE 00Z RUC AND 18Z NAM...IT STILL DEPICTED NEARLY A 4500 FT THICK
LAYER NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING. IN THE ABSENCE OF STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION...A DECREASING CHANCE FOR SNOW IN THE FORECAST
CONTINUES. AS FOR THUNDER...SOME WEAK POSITIVE INSTABILITY IS
PRESENT ON THE ILX SOUNDING WHEN LIFTING PARCELS FROM 850 MB...BUT
THE BETTER ELEVATED INSTABILITY GRADIENT WHICH LINES UP WITH
ONGOING CONVECTION IN MO LOOKS TO STAY TO OUR SOUTH. POCKETS OF
ISOLATED HEAVIER RAIN HAVE BEEN SEEN PER DUAL-POL ANALYSIS. GOING
QPF FORECAST LOOKS ALRIGHT ON MAGNITUDE...BUT DID SHRINK THE AREAL
COVERAGE OF THE FORECAST ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH AND GREATER.
MTF
//PREV DISCUSSION...
317 PM...PRIMARY FORECAST FOCUS REMAINS APPROACHING SYSTEM WITH
MAINLY RAIN/SHOWERS TONIGHT.
AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOME SUN THIS MORNING...LOW CLOUDS SPREAD
NORTH AND DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH SOME SHOWERS MIDDAY
WHICH HAVE SINCE MOVED OVER THE LAKE. FAIRLY STRONG UPPER WAVE TO
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...THOUGH IT SLOWLY WEAKENS WITH TIME.
SCATTERED SHOWERS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING FROM KANSAS INTO SOUTHERN
IOWA AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
THIS EVENING INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A TREND OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN...OR THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
HEAVIEST RAIN...FALLING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA AND POINTS SOUTH
AND EAST. SO HAVE BACKED OFF ON QPF AMOUNTS SOME ESPECIALLY NORTH
WITH STRONGER CONVECTION FURTHER SOUTH TAKING SOME OF THE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE/QPF. THOUGH SINCE THERE COULD STILL BE SOME
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS...LOCALIZED RAINFALL TOTALS OF A HALF TO THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH ARE STILL POSSIBLE. THERE IS ALSO SOME SMALL
INSTABILITY ALOFT THAT MAY CAUSE A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER...
MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA AND WILL CONTINUE WITH NO
MENTION OF THUNDER.
AS FOR ANY SNOW POTENTIAL...NOT MUCH COLD AIR TO WORK WITH THIS
SYSTEM AND DEW POINTS ALREADY CREEPING UP INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS
NORTHERN IL. ANY SNOW WOULD LIKELY RESULT FROM PRECIP COOLING THE
COLUMN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE PRECIP LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING...RATHER THAN SHARP COLD AIR ADVECTION. AND BY
THE TIME THERE IS ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR PRECIP TO CHANGEOVER TO
SNOW...IT APPEARS PRECIP WILL BE ENDING. THUS HAVE MAINTAINED A
CHANCE OF SNOW ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST CWA OVERNIGHT AND THEN A
CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS MIXED THURSDAY MORNING...BUT EVEN
IF PRECIP WERE TO GO OVER TO SNOW...GROUND WOULD LIKELY BE WARM
ENOUGH AND WET ENOUGH THAT LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION WOULD RESULT.
AND AS NOTED...HUNG ONTO SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS THURSDAY MORNING BUT
ITS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT PRECIP MAY END BY SUNRISE MOST AREAS. IN
ADDITION...IF HEAVIER RAIN/SHOWERS DO END UP FURTHER SOUTH...
PRECIP MIGHT END UP BEING MORE DRIZZLE.
TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY IN THE LOWER 40S WILL SLOWLY FALL INTO THE
MID/UPPER 30S BUT FOR THE MOST PART WILL BE STEADY...PROBABLY NOT
DROPPING SIGNIFICANTLY UNTIL WIDESPREAD PRECIP BEGINS FALLING.
LOWS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST MAY DIP DOWN TO FREEZING BY MORNING BUT
MOST OF THE CWA LIKELY TO STAY JUST ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH
MORNING. CLOUDS BEGIN CLEARING BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING AND WITH
SOME SUN IN THE AFTERNOON...SHOULD SEE TEMPS WARM INTO THE LOWER
40S THURSDAY.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES BY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING FRIDAY AFTERNOON. DEPENDING ON THE EXTENT
OF INCREASING CLOUDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...TEMPS WARMING BACK INTO
THE MID/UPPER 40S SEEMS REASONABLE FROM THIS DISTANCE. MODELS THEN
BRING ACROSS ANOTHER WEAK SURFACE LOW FRIDAY NIGHT. APPEARS THE
BULK OF THE PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN ON THE NORTH SIDE
OF THIS LOW AND NORTH OF THE CWA...BUT A FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
APPEAR POSSIBLE ALONG THE TRAILING COLD FRONT LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING AND INTRODUCED LOW CHANCE POPS DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD. THIS COLD FRONT USHERS IN SOME COLDER AIR...THOUGH
THE MODELS DIFFER ON THE EXTENT OF JUST HOW COLD THIS AIR WILL
BE. DOESN/T APPEAR TOO COLD BUT HIGHS THIS WEEKEND LIKELY ONLY IN
THE 30S.
NEXT WEEK LOOKING BOTH UNSETTLED AND UNCERTAIN AS A POSSIBLE COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY WITH A STRONGER SYSTEM
LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY/SOUTHERN LAKES REGION
TOWARD MIDWEEK. CMS
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES TONIGHT.
* ENDING TIME OF -RA AND POTENTIAL FOR -DZ OVERNIGHT.
* TIMING OF RETURN TO VFR THU.
* GUSTY NW WIND DEVELOPING THU.
TRS
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
SYSTEM MOVING OVER THE MIDWEST IS RATHER DISORGANIZED BASED ON
CLOUD TOP TEMPS SEEN IR SATELLITE AND ON RADAR LOOPS. EVEN THOUGH
A WELL DEFINED UPPER LOW IS STILL SEEN OVER SW MO THERE APPEARS
TO BE MULTIPLE SMALLER SCALE IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE OVERALL
LARGE SCALE FLOW.
MID LEVEL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY MOVING OVER SOUTHERN WI AND
NORTHERN IL. TROUGH AXIS AND TRAILING EDGE OF RAIN CURRENTLY OVER
THE AREA EXPECTED TO BE E OF CHI VICINITY BY 07Z BASED ON LATEST
MODEL PROGS AND EXTRAPOLATION OF RECENT RADAR IMAGES.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER AREA OF RAIN CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL AND NE MO
INTO W CENTRAL IL WITH SOME DEVELOPMENT A BIT FURTHER DOWNSTREAM
TOWARDS N CENTRAL IL AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. APPEARS THAT
MAIN PORTION OF THIS AREA WILL PASS JUST S OF THE ORD AND MDW
THOUGH A COUPLE SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE TIL AXIS OF UPPER TROUGH
MOVES E AROUND 10Z.
BETWEEN RAINFALL DURING THE EVENING AND CONTINUED WEAK LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION ANTICIPATE IFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL EVEN AFTER
THE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH AS HIGHER DEW POINTS LAG A
BIT BEHIND THE TROUGH AND THERE IS ONLY A WEAK PUSH OF THE DRIER
AIR INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. MID AND UPPER TROUGHS PASS TO THE E
OVERNIGHT BUT LOWER LEVELS REMAIN SATURATED AND MAY SEE SOME
DRIZZLE DEVELOP DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS WEAK COLD AIR
ADVECTION IN THE LOWER LEVELS BEGINS.
BY DAYBREAK A DRYING NW LOW LEVEL FLOW IS TO HAVE BECOME MORE
ESTABLISHED IN THE WAKE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWS QUICK CLEARING OUT OF THE REMAINING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BY
MIDDAY THU SO EXPECT A QUICK JUMP FROM IFR CEILINGS TO PRETTY MUCH
SKC THEREAFTER THOUGH MAY A FEW STRATOCU AT LEAS INTO MID
AFTERNOON.
A FAIRLY STRONG SURFACE RIDGE IS TO BE BUILDING SE ACROSS THE
PLAINS LATE TONIGHT AND DURING THU RESULTING A MODERATELY STRONG
WNW-NW LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER THE LOCAL AREA BY THE TIME THE CLOUDS
CLEAR OUT. WITH SURFACE HEATING MIXED LAYER PROGGED TO DEEPEN TO
1-1.5KM WHICH WOULD ALLOW MOMENTUM TRANSFER OF 20-25KT WINDS AT
THIS LEVEL MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE RESULTING IN SOME GUSTINESS
FROM MIDDAY UNTIL SUNSET THU.
TRS
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CONTINUED IFR REST OF NIGHT.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CONTINUED LIGHT WINDS REST OF NIGHT.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN INCREASING NW WINDS DURING THU MORNING.
* MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN ENDING TIME OF -RA.
* MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE OF -DZ OVERNIGHT INTO PRE-
DAWN THU.
* MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN RAPID IMPROVEMENT FROM IFR DURING LATER
THU MORNING.
TRS
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
FRIDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY...POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS.
SUNDAY...VFR.
MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...CHANCE RA AND/OR SN WITH MVFR.
TRS
&&
.MARINE...
205 AM CST
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN THIS
MORNING. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS UNTIL THIS OCCURS. HOWEVER...ONCE IT PASSES OVER THE LAKE
EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME WEST NORTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO 20 TO 25
KT BY LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
THE SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONSOLIDATE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
THE PLAINS WILL BUILD EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO
VALLEYS. THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS MAKE MICHIGAN
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THEREFORE WESTERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT WILL
CONTINUE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
THE WINDS WILL ABATE DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN FRIDAY NIGHT. ONCE THIS LOW
PASSES BY...WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE...RESULTING IN ANOTHER
EPISODE OF SOME GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 KT RANGE ON
SATURDAY.
KJB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-
ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ032-ILZ039 UNTIL 9 AM
THURSDAY.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1109 PM CST WED FEB 15 2012
.DISCUSSION...
823 PM CST
THERE WERE SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST BUT
THE GENERAL THEME OF A WET NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING AT A
SNAILS PACE STILL LOOKS GOOD.
AFTER SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT AND LIMITED FOCUS...RAIN HAS SPREAD
OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. THIS APPEARS TO BE
THANKS IN PART TO A LEAD SHORT WAVE PER WV/PROFILER ANALYSIS AND
ASSOCIATED BETTER 850-700MB CONVERGENCE THAT LINES UP WELL WITH
RADAR RETURNS. GIVEN THE RUC ANALYSIS OF THIS FIELD...TRENDS ON
RADAR...AND HIGH AVAILABLE MOISTURE /BASICALLY 200 PERCENT OF
NORMAL PWATS ON DVN AND ILX RAOBS/...THE RAIN AXIS SHOULD
CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL HOURS WHILE GRADUALLY EXPANDING/EVOLVING
SOUTHEAST AS FORCING FROM THE MAIN UPPER LOW APPROACHES. THIS WAVE
STILL HAS A CLOSED CIRCULATION ON WATER VAPOR AND IS TRIGGERING
CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN MO. BUT THIS IS FORECAST TO DAMPEN IN
THE MORE CONFLUENT FLOW...LIMITING MORE INTENSE FORCING AND
DYNAMIC COOLING EFFECTS. SO WITH MORE LIMITED FORCING HAVE ADDED
DRIZZLE AND FOG MENTION IN THE FORECAST...ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT.
THE LOW T/TD SPREADS AND DECREASING FLOW WITH THE BAGGY SURFACE
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SHOULD FURTHER AID IN SOME AREAS OF LIGHT
FOG.
IT STILL IS POSSIBLE TO HAVE SOME WET NON-ACCUMULATING SNOW
TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT AND MAYBE A BRIEF
MIX TOWARDS CHICAGO AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS THU MORNING. WHILE THE
DVN RAOB DID COME IN AROUND 1-2C COOLER IN THE LOWER PROFILE THAN
THE 00Z RUC AND 18Z NAM...IT STILL DEPICTED NEARLY A 4500 FT THICK
LAYER NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING. IN THE ABSENCE OF STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION...A DECREASING CHANCE FOR SNOW IN THE FORECAST
CONTINUES. AS FOR THUNDER...SOME WEAK POSITIVE INSTABILITY IS
PRESENT ON THE ILX SOUNDING WHEN LIFTING PARCELS FROM 850 MB...BUT
THE BETTER ELEVATED INSTABILITY GRADIENT WHICH LINES UP WITH
ONGOING CONVECTION IN MO LOOKS TO STAY TO OUR SOUTH. POCKETS OF
ISOLATED HEAVIER RAIN HAVE BEEN SEEN PER DUAL-POL ANALYSIS. GOING
QPF FORECAST LOOKS ALRIGHT ON MAGNITUDE...BUT DID SHRINK THE AREAL
COVERAGE OF THE FORECAST ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH AND GREATER.
MTF
//PREV DISCUSSION...
317 PM...PRIMARY FORECAST FOCUS REMAINS APPROACHING SYSTEM WITH
MAINLY RAIN/SHOWERS TONIGHT.
AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOME SUN THIS MORNING...LOW CLOUDS SPREAD
NORTH AND DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH SOME SHOWERS MIDDAY
WHICH HAVE SINCE MOVED OVER THE LAKE. FAIRLY STRONG UPPER WAVE TO
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...THOUGH IT SLOWLY WEAKENS WITH TIME.
SCATTERED SHOWERS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING FROM KANSAS INTO SOUTHERN
IOWA AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
THIS EVENING INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A TREND OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN...OR THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
HEAVIEST RAIN...FALLING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA AND POINTS SOUTH
AND EAST. SO HAVE BACKED OFF ON QPF AMOUNTS SOME ESPECIALLY NORTH
WITH STRONGER CONVECTION FURTHER SOUTH TAKING SOME OF THE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE/QPF. THOUGH SINCE THERE COULD STILL BE SOME
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS...LOCALIZED RAINFALL TOTALS OF A HALF TO THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH ARE STILL POSSIBLE. THERE IS ALSO SOME SMALL
INSTABILITY ALOFT THAT MAY CAUSE A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER...
MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA AND WILL CONTINUE WITH NO
MENTION OF THUNDER.
AS FOR ANY SNOW POTENTIAL...NOT MUCH COLD AIR TO WORK WITH THIS
SYSTEM AND DEW POINTS ALREADY CREEPING UP INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS
NORTHERN IL. ANY SNOW WOULD LIKELY RESULT FROM PRECIP COOLING THE
COLUMN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE PRECIP LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING...RATHER THAN SHARP COLD AIR ADVECTION. AND BY
THE TIME THERE IS ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR PRECIP TO CHANGEOVER TO
SNOW...IT APPEARS PRECIP WILL BE ENDING. THUS HAVE MAINTAINED A
CHANCE OF SNOW ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST CWA OVERNIGHT AND THEN A
CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS MIXED THURSDAY MORNING...BUT EVEN
IF PRECIP WERE TO GO OVER TO SNOW...GROUND WOULD LIKELY BE WARM
ENOUGH AND WET ENOUGH THAT LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION WOULD RESULT.
AND AS NOTED...HUNG ONTO SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS THURSDAY MORNING BUT
ITS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT PRECIP MAY END BY SUNRISE MOST AREAS. IN
ADDITION...IF HEAVIER RAIN/SHOWERS DO END UP FURTHER SOUTH...
PRECIP MIGHT END UP BEING MORE DRIZZLE.
TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY IN THE LOWER 40S WILL SLOWLY FALL INTO THE
MID/UPPER 30S BUT FOR THE MOST PART WILL BE STEADY...PROBABLY NOT
DROPPING SIGNIFICANTLY UNTIL WIDESPREAD PRECIP BEGINS FALLING.
LOWS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST MAY DIP DOWN TO FREEZING BY MORNING BUT
MOST OF THE CWA LIKELY TO STAY JUST ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH
MORNING. CLOUDS BEGIN CLEARING BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING AND WITH
SOME SUN IN THE AFTERNOON...SHOULD SEE TEMPS WARM INTO THE LOWER
40S THURSDAY.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES BY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING FRIDAY AFTERNOON. DEPENDING ON THE EXTENT
OF INCREASING CLOUDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...TEMPS WARMING BACK INTO
THE MID/UPPER 40S SEEMS REASONABLE FROM THIS DISTANCE. MODELS THEN
BRING ACROSS ANOTHER WEAK SURFACE LOW FRIDAY NIGHT. APPEARS THE
BULK OF THE PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN ON THE NORTH SIDE
OF THIS LOW AND NORTH OF THE CWA...BUT A FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
APPEAR POSSIBLE ALONG THE TRAILING COLD FRONT LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING AND INTRODUCED LOW CHANCE POPS DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD. THIS COLD FRONT USHERS IN SOME COLDER AIR...THOUGH
THE MODELS DIFFER ON THE EXTENT OF JUST HOW COLD THIS AIR WILL
BE. DOESN/T APPEAR TOO COLD BUT HIGHS THIS WEEKEND LIKELY ONLY IN
THE 30S.
NEXT WEEK LOOKING BOTH UNSETTLED AND UNCERTAIN AS A POSSIBLE COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY WITH A STRONGER SYSTEM
LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY/SOUTHERN LAKES REGION
TOWARD MIDWEEK. CMS
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES TONIGHT.
* ENDING TIME OF -RA AND POTENTIAL FOR -DZ OVERNIGHT.
* TIMING OF RETURN TO VFR THU.
* GUSTY NW WIND DEVELOPING THU.
TRS
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
SYSTEM MOVING OVER THE MIDWEST IS RATHER DISORGANIZED BASED ON
CLOUD TOP TEMPS SEEN IR SATELLITE AND ON RADAR LOOPS. EVEN THOUGH
A WELL DEFINED UPPER LOW IS STILL SEEN OVER SW MO THERE APPEARS
TO BE MULTIPLE SMALLER SCALE IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE OVERALL
LARGE SCALE FLOW.
MID LEVEL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY MOVING OVER SOUTHERN WI AND
NORTHERN IL. TROUGH AXIS AND TRAILING EDGE OF RAIN CURRENTLY OVER
THE AREA EXPECTED TO BE E OF CHI VICINITY BY 07Z BASED ON LATEST
MODEL PROGS AND EXTRAPOLATION OF RECENT RADAR IMAGES.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER AREA OF RAIN CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL AND NE MO
INTO W CENTRAL IL WITH SOME DEVELOPMENT A BIT FURTHER DOWNSTREAM
TOWARDS N CENTRAL IL AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. APPEARS THAT
MAIN PORTION OF THIS AREA WILL PASS JUST S OF THE ORD AND MDW
THOUGH A COUPLE SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE TIL AXIS OF UPPER TROUGH
MOVES E AROUND 10Z.
BETWEEN RAINFALL DURING THE EVENING AND CONTINUED WEAK LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION ANTICIPATE IFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL EVEN AFTER
THE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH AS HIGHER DEW POINTS LAG A
BIT BEHIND THE TROUGH AND THERE IS ONLY A WEAK PUSH OF THE DRIER
AIR INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. MID AND UPPER TROUGHS PASS TO THE E
OVERNIGHT BUT LOWER LEVELS REMAIN SATURATED AND MAY SEE SOME
DRIZZLE DEVELOP DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS WEAK COLD AIR
ADVECTION IN THE LOWER LEVELS BEGINS.
BY DAYBREAK A DRYING NW LOW LEVEL FLOW IS TO HAVE BECOME MORE
ESTABLISHED IN THE WAKE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWS QUICK CLEARING OUT OF THE REMAINING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BY
MIDDAY THU SO EXPECT A QUICK JUMP FROM IFR CEILINGS TO PRETTY MUCH
SKC THEREAFTER THOUGH MAY A FEW STRATOCU AT LEAS INTO MID
AFTERNOON.
A FAIRLY STRONG SURFACE RIDGE IS TO BE BUILDING SE ACROSS THE
PLAINS LATE TONIGHT AND DURING THU RESULTING A MODERATELY STRONG
WNW-NW LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER THE LOCAL AREA BY THE TIME THE CLOUDS
CLEAR OUT. WITH SURFACE HEATING MIXED LAYER PROGGED TO DEEPEN TO
1-1.5KM WHICH WOULD ALLOW MOMENTUM TRANSFER OF 20-25KT WINDS AT
THIS LEVEL MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE RESULTING IN SOME GUSTINESS
FROM MIDDAY UNTIL SUNSET THU.
TRS
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CONTINUED IFR REST OF NIGHT.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CONTINUED LIGHT WINDS REST OF NIGHT.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN INCREASING NW WINDS DURING THU MORNING.
* MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN ENDING TIME OF -RA.
* MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE OF -DZ OVERNIGHT INTO PRE-
DAWN THU.
* MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN RAPID IMPROVEMENT FROM IFR DURING LATER
THU MORNING.
TRS
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
FRIDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY...POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS.
SUNDAY...VFR.
MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...CHANCE RA AND/OR SN WITH MVFR.
TRS
&&
.MARINE...
203 PM CST
MAIN MARINE FORECAST CONCERNS ARE THE POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE OF
PERIODS OF 20-25 KT WINDS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OF OKLAHOMA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH A WEAKER TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST
TO ANOTHER LOW OVER ONTARIO. THE PLAINS LOW WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
EAST ACROSS ILLINOIS AND INDIANA INTO SOUTHWESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN BY
THURSDAY MORNING...THEN WILL COMBINE WITH THE ONTARIO LOW AS THEY
MOVE EAST OF THE LAKES...EVENTUALLY DEEPENING OVER SOUTHWEST QUEBEC
BY THURSDAY EVENING. ONCE THE LOW AND TROUGH AXIS MOVE ACROSS LAKE
MICHIGAN TONIGHT...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND INCREASE INTO
THE 15 TO 25 KT RANGE THURSDAY AS THE LOW DEEPENS OFF TO THE EAST.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THURSDAY NIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND WEAKER RIDGING EXTENDS NORTH
INTO THE WESTERN LAKES FRIDAY MORNING. ANOTHER WEAK LOW WILL FOLLOW
ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH NORTHERLY
WINDS PICKING UP AGAIN INTO THE 15 TO 25 KT RANGE SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS FOR A TIME BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING LOW TO THE EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE SPREADING ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST. THIS HIGH WILL SLOWLY SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY AND WESTERN LAKES BY SUNDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING WINDS TO
DIMINISH AHEAD OF THE RIDGE ON SUNDAY.
RATZER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1015 PM CST WED FEB 15 2012
.DISCUSSION...
823 PM CST
THERE WERE SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST BUT
THE GENERAL THEME OF A WET NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING AT A
SNAILS PACE STILL LOOKS GOOD.
AFTER SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT AND LIMITED FOCUS...RAIN HAS SPREAD
OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. THIS APPEARS TO BE
THANKS IN PART TO A LEAD SHORT WAVE PER WV/PROFILER ANALYSIS AND
ASSOCIATED BETTER 850-700MB CONVERGENCE THAT LINES UP WELL WITH
RADAR RETURNS. GIVEN THE RUC ANALYSIS OF THIS FIELD...TRENDS ON
RADAR...AND HIGH AVAILABLE MOISTURE /BASICALLY 200 PERCENT OF
NORMAL PWATS ON DVN AND ILX RAOBS/...THE RAIN AXIS SHOULD
CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL HOURS WHILE GRADUALLY EXPANDING/EVOLVING
SOUTHEAST AS FORCING FROM THE MAIN UPPER LOW APPROACHES. THIS WAVE
STILL HAS A CLOSED CIRCULATION ON WATER VAPOR AND IS TRIGGERING
CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN MO. BUT THIS IS FORECAST TO DAMPEN IN
THE MORE CONFLUENT FLOW...LIMITING MORE INTENSE FORCING AND
DYNAMIC COOLING EFFECTS. SO WITH MORE LIMITED FORCING HAVE ADDED
DRIZZLE AND FOG MENTION IN THE FORECAST...ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT.
THE LOW T/TD SPREADS AND DECREASING FLOW WITH THE BAGGY SURFACE
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SHOULD FURTHER AID IN SOME AREAS OF LIGHT
FOG.
IT STILL IS POSSIBLE TO HAVE SOME WET NON-ACCUMULATING SNOW
TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT AND MAYBE A BRIEF
MIX TOWARDS CHICAGO AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS THU MORNING. WHILE THE
DVN RAOB DID COME IN AROUND 1-2C COOLER IN THE LOWER PROFILE THAN
THE 00Z RUC AND 18Z NAM...IT STILL DEPICTED NEARLY A 4500 FT THICK
LAYER NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING. IN THE ABSENCE OF STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION...A DECREASING CHANCE FOR SNOW IN THE FORECAST
CONTINUES. AS FOR THUNDER...SOME WEAK POSITIVE INSTABILITY IS
PRESENT ON THE ILX SOUNDING WHEN LIFTING PARCELS FROM 850 MB...BUT
THE BETTER ELEVATED INSTABILITY GRADIENT WHICH LINES UP WITH
ONGOING CONVECTION IN MO LOOKS TO STAY TO OUR SOUTH. POCKETS OF
ISOLATED HEAVIER RAIN HAVE BEEN SEEN PER DUAL-POL ANALYSIS. GOING
QPF FORECAST LOOKS ALRIGHT ON MAGNITUDE...BUT DID SHRINK THE AREAL
COVERAGE OF THE FORECAST ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH AND GREATER.
MTF
//PREV DISCUSSION...
317 PM...PRIMARY FORECAST FOCUS REMAINS APPROACHING SYSTEM WITH
MAINLY RAIN/SHOWERS TONIGHT.
AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOME SUN THIS MORNING...LOW CLOUDS SPREAD
NORTH AND DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH SOME SHOWERS MIDDAY
WHICH HAVE SINCE MOVED OVER THE LAKE. FAIRLY STRONG UPPER WAVE TO
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...THOUGH IT SLOWLY WEAKENS WITH TIME.
SCATTERED SHOWERS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING FROM KANSAS INTO SOUTHERN
IOWA AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
THIS EVENING INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A TREND OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN...OR THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
HEAVIEST RAIN...FALLING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA AND POINTS SOUTH
AND EAST. SO HAVE BACKED OFF ON QPF AMOUNTS SOME ESPECIALLY NORTH
WITH STRONGER CONVECTION FURTHER SOUTH TAKING SOME OF THE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE/QPF. THOUGH SINCE THERE COULD STILL BE SOME
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS...LOCALIZED RAINFALL TOTALS OF A HALF TO THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH ARE STILL POSSIBLE. THERE IS ALSO SOME SMALL
INSTABILITY ALOFT THAT MAY CAUSE A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER...
MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA AND WILL CONTINUE WITH NO
MENTION OF THUNDER.
AS FOR ANY SNOW POTENTIAL...NOT MUCH COLD AIR TO WORK WITH THIS
SYSTEM AND DEW POINTS ALREADY CREEPING UP INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS
NORTHERN IL. ANY SNOW WOULD LIKELY RESULT FROM PRECIP COOLING THE
COLUMN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE PRECIP LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING...RATHER THAN SHARP COLD AIR ADVECTION. AND BY
THE TIME THERE IS ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR PRECIP TO CHANGEOVER TO
SNOW...IT APPEARS PRECIP WILL BE ENDING. THUS HAVE MAINTAINED A
CHANCE OF SNOW ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST CWA OVERNIGHT AND THEN A
CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS MIXED THURSDAY MORNING...BUT EVEN
IF PRECIP WERE TO GO OVER TO SNOW...GROUND WOULD LIKELY BE WARM
ENOUGH AND WET ENOUGH THAT LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION WOULD RESULT.
AND AS NOTED...HUNG ONTO SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS THURSDAY MORNING BUT
ITS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT PRECIP MAY END BY SUNRISE MOST AREAS. IN
ADDITION...IF HEAVIER RAIN/SHOWERS DO END UP FURTHER SOUTH...
PRECIP MIGHT END UP BEING MORE DRIZZLE.
TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY IN THE LOWER 40S WILL SLOWLY FALL INTO THE
MID/UPPER 30S BUT FOR THE MOST PART WILL BE STEADY...PROBABLY NOT
DROPPING SIGNIFICANTLY UNTIL WIDESPREAD PRECIP BEGINS FALLING.
LOWS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST MAY DIP DOWN TO FREEZING BY MORNING BUT
MOST OF THE CWA LIKELY TO STAY JUST ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH
MORNING. CLOUDS BEGIN CLEARING BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING AND WITH
SOME SUN IN THE AFTERNOON...SHOULD SEE TEMPS WARM INTO THE LOWER
40S THURSDAY.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES BY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING FRIDAY AFTERNOON. DEPENDING ON THE EXTENT
OF INCREASING CLOUDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...TEMPS WARMING BACK INTO
THE MID/UPPER 40S SEEMS REASONABLE FROM THIS DISTANCE. MODELS THEN
BRING ACROSS ANOTHER WEAK SURFACE LOW FRIDAY NIGHT. APPEARS THE
BULK OF THE PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN ON THE NORTH SIDE
OF THIS LOW AND NORTH OF THE CWA...BUT A FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
APPEAR POSSIBLE ALONG THE TRAILING COLD FRONT LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING AND INTRODUCED LOW CHANCE POPS DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD. THIS COLD FRONT USHERS IN SOME COLDER AIR...THOUGH
THE MODELS DIFFER ON THE EXTENT OF JUST HOW COLD THIS AIR WILL
BE. DOESN/T APPEAR TOO COLD BUT HIGHS THIS WEEKEND LIKELY ONLY IN
THE 30S.
NEXT WEEK LOOKING BOTH UNSETTLED AND UNCERTAIN AS A POSSIBLE COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY WITH A STRONGER SYSTEM
LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY/SOUTHERN LAKES REGION
TOWARD MIDWEEK. CMS
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 04Z...
* IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES TONIGHT.
* ENDING TIME OF -RA AND POTENTIAL FOR -DZ OVERNIGHT.
* TIMING OF RETURN TO VFR THU.
TRS
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 00Z...
SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE PLAINS OVER THE MIDWEST IS RATHER
DISORGANIZED BASED ON CLOUD TOP TEMPS SEEN IR SATELLITE AND ON
RADAR LOOPS. EVEN THOUGH A WELL DEFINED UPPER LOW IS SEEN OVER
EASTERN KS THERE APPEARS TO BE MULTIPLE SMALLER SCALE IMPULSES
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE OVERALL LARGE SCALE FLOW.
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING THAT MAIN RAIN AREA WILL REMAIN
TO THE SW THROUGH S AND E OF THE LOCAL TERMINALS TONIGHT WHERE
BEST FORCING MAXIMIZED AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH PROGGED TO REACH
THE IL-IN BORDER BY 12Z THU. HOWEVER...STILL EXPECT A PERIOD OR
PERIODS OF RAIN THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS MID AND
UPPER LEVEL ASCENT MOVES OVER THE LOCAL AREA.
AN AREA OF RAIN HAS BEEN GRADUALLY MOVING ENE FROM SE IA TO N
CENTRAL IL OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS THOUGH LEADING EDGE APPEARED
TO BE DISSIPATING THE FURTHER E IT GOT INTO IL. MEASUREMENT OF
MOISTURE FROM AN AIRCRAFT DESCENT INTO MDW AT 2132Z SHOWED A DRY
LAYER FROM 800 TO 700 HPA WHICH WAS LEADING TO THE DELAYED
EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THIS LEADING EDGE AS COMPARED EARLIER
ARRIVAL USING EXTRAPOLATION OF RADAR ECHOES. LATEST FRAMES OF
RADAR LOOP SHOWING THE RAIN RECENTLY MAKING STEADY PROGRESS
ACROSS N CENTRAL IL AS THE DRY LAYER HAS BECOME SATURATED.
MEANWHILE...AS S TO SSE LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUED TO ADVECT MID
AND UPPER 30S F DEW POINTS INTO THE AREA CEILINGS JUST S OF MDW
AND ORD HAD FALLEN TO BELOW 010 AND VISIBILITIES TO GENERALLY 3 TO
5 SM. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD
NORTHWARDS ACROSS FAR NE IL EARLY THIS EVENING EVEN THOUGH THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN WITH TIME AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW OR
TROUGH MOVES E ACROSS THE MS RIVER DURING THE EARLY AND MID
EVENING.
ANY LARGER SCALE LIFT IS PROGGED TO BE E OF THE LOCAL AREA BY
AROUND 09Z BUT MID AND LOWER LEVELS REMAIN SATURATED UNTIL AROUND
12Z SO ANTICIPATE IFR CEILINGS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH
OCCASIONAL DRIZZLE DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND PRE DAWN HOURS. BY
DAYBREAK A DRYING NW LOW LEVEL FLOW IS TO HAVE BECOME ESTABLISHED
IN THE WAKE OF THE SURFACE...MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS. MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWS QUICK CLEARING OUT OF THE REMAINING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BY MIDDAY THU SO EXPECT A QUICK JUMP FROM IFR CEILINGS
TO PRETTY MUCH SKC THEN.
A FAIRLY STRONG SURFACE RIDGE IS TO BE BUILDING SE ACROSS THE
PLAINS LATE TONIGHT AND DURING THU RESULTING A MODERATELY STRONG
WNW-NW LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER THE LOCAL AREA BY THE TIME THE CLOUDS
CLEAR OUT. WITH SURFACE HEATING MIXED LAYER PROGGED TO DEEPEN TO
1-1.5KM WHICH WOULD ALLOW MOMENTUM TRANSFER OF 20-25KT WINDS AT
THIS LEVEL MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE RESULTING IN SOME GUSTINESS
FROM MIDDAY UNTIL SUNSET THU.
TRS
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 04Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CONTINUED IFR REST OF NIGHT.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CONTINUED LIGHT WINDS REST OF NIGHT.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ENDING TIME OF -RA.
* MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE OF -DZ OVERNIGHT INTO PRE-
DAWN THU.
* MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN RAPID IMPROVEMENT FROM IFR DURING LATER
THU MORNING.
TRS
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
FRIDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY...POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS.
SUNDAY...VFR.
MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...CHANCE RA AND/OR SN WITH MVFR.
TRS
&&
.MARINE...
203 PM CST
MAIN MARINE FORECAST CONCERNS ARE THE POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE OF
PERIODS OF 20-25 KT WINDS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OF OKLAHOMA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH A WEAKER TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST
TO ANOTHER LOW OVER ONTARIO. THE PLAINS LOW WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
EAST ACROSS ILLINOIS AND INDIANA INTO SOUTHWESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN BY
THURSDAY MORNING...THEN WILL COMBINE WITH THE ONTARIO LOW AS THEY
MOVE EAST OF THE LAKES...EVENTUALLY DEEPENING OVER SOUTHWEST QUEBEC
BY THURSDAY EVENING. ONCE THE LOW AND TROUGH AXIS MOVE ACROSS LAKE
MICHIGAN TONIGHT...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND INCREASE INTO
THE 15 TO 25 KT RANGE THURSDAY AS THE LOW DEEPENS OFF TO THE EAST.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THURSDAY NIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND WEAKER RIDGING EXTENDS NORTH
INTO THE WESTERN LAKES FRIDAY MORNING. ANOTHER WEAK LOW WILL FOLLOW
ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH NORTHERLY
WINDS PICKING UP AGAIN INTO THE 15 TO 25 KT RANGE SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS FOR A TIME BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING LOW TO THE EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE SPREADING ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST. THIS HIGH WILL SLOWLY SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY AND WESTERN LAKES BY SUNDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING WINDS TO
DIMINISH AHEAD OF THE RIDGE ON SUNDAY.
RATZER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
705 PM EST FRI FEB 17 2012
.AVIATION /00 UTC TAFS...
FOCUS ON MARGINAL LLWS AS 2KFT WINDS INCRS THIS EVE INADVOF
SHORTWAVE NOW INTO WRN GRTLKS RGN SWINGS EWD...DRIVING
INTENSIFICATION OF CLIPPER SYSTEM INTO LWR GRTLKS BY DAYBREAK.
MARGINAL LAKE/8H THERMAL DIFFERENTIAL TMRW TO PROMOTE LAKE INDUCED
CLOUDS...THOUGH ANTICIPATE LITTLE MORE THAN FLURRIES IMMEDIATELY
DOWNSTREAM OF LK MI.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF APPROACHING CLIPPER SYSTEM WAS
GENERATING AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW JUST TO OUR NORTH THIS AFTERNOON.
REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC COUPLED WITH HIGH RES GUIDANCE SUGGEST THIS
WILL REMAIN JUST NORTH OF FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...AS SURFACE LOW DROPS SOUTH AND EAST LIGHT PCPN WILL AGAIN
BE POSSIBLE AND HRRR SHOWS THIS AFTER ABOUT 01Z. WILL MAINTAIN A LOW
CHANCE POP FOR THIS LIGHT PRECIPITATION POSSIBILITY ACROSS THE FAR
NORTH AS MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM REMAINS LIMITED. AS LOW
PASSES AND COLD AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN LOW
AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE WITH AID OF LAKE MICHIGAN. DELTA T VALUES
INCREASE TO LOWER TEENS WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO HELP IN LAKE CLOUD
GENERATION AND SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTH. ANY ACCUMS
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND WILL DEPEND ON DEPTH OF MOISTURE COLUMN.
HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES IN ON SATURDAY WITH CLEARING SKIES IN
AFTERNOON AS FLOW VEERS. INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS POSSIBLE SATURDAY
NIGHT AS SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS DEEPENS AND SPREADS HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE NORTH. PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF
FORECAST AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM...
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
PLEASANT WEATHER PATTERN TO BEGIN THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH SFC HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SUNDAY THEN
DRIFTING SE INTO OH VALLEY ON MONDAY. AFTER SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
ON SUNDAY WILL SEE A WARMUP TO BEGIN NEXT WEEK AS MID LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDS EASTWARD INTO THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO STRONG JET DYNAMICS
COMING ONSHORE IN PACIFIC NW WHICH WILL REINFORCE TROUGH OVER FOUR
CORNERS. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS OFFERING VARIED SOLNS IN HANDLING
ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF TROUGH...BUT ALL INDICATIONS POINT TO PERIOD
OF UNSETTLED WEATHER MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. ONE COMMON THEME
AND AN AREA OF HIGHER CONFIDENCE AMONG THE MODELS IS THE PHASING OF
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS AND SUBSEQUENT BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH
CARVED OUT FROM THE PLAINS TO GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY-FRIDAY
TIMEFRAME. WHILE TIMING AND DETAILS OF RESULTING SENSIBLE WEATHER
REMAIN UNCERTAIN...PATTERN SUGGESTS KEEPING POPS IN FCST TUE-THU AND
ABSENCE OF ANY SIGNS OF SFC RIDGING BUILDING IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM
FAVORS CONTINUED CYCLONIC FLOW AND SMALL CHANCE POPS FRI AS WELL.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...LASHLEY
LONG TERM...LOGSDON
AVIATION...LASHLEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
536 PM CST FRI FEB 17 2012
...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
LATEST WV IMAGERY WITH H500 RUC ANALYSIS SHOWED CONFLUENT UPPER
LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY ONCE AGAIN...WITH
ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE MT/ND BORDER. A STRIP OF
POSITIVE VORTICITY ORIENTED EAST/WEST FROM CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
THROUGH CENTRAL WISCONSIN IS A RESULT OF SPEED SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH
THE ZONAL FLOW TO THE SOUTH...AND NORTHERLY FLOW TO THE NORTH. THIS
FEATURE WILL REMAIN FAIRLY TRANSIENT...SO WITH LITTLE PVA...IT
SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON THE SURFACE. IN ADDITION...SUBSIDENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEFT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET AND
THE ANTICYCLONIC CURVATURE OF THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL CAUSE A
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO CENTRAL IOWA AS SHOWN IN THE 6HR
SURFACE ISALLOBARIC MAP.
THIS SURFACE HIGH WILL REDUCE WINDS OVERNIGHT...WHICH COULD ALLOW
TEMPS TO FALL OFF. HOWEVER...CELLULAR STRATUS DECK SPREADING ACROSS
ALL OF MINNESOTA COULD LIMIT THE RADIATIONAL COOLING IF IT HOLDS
TOGETHER AFTER SUNSET AND MOVES INTO NORTHERN IOWA. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND TIME/HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS SHOW THIN LAYER OF HIGH RH
IN THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER. ANTICIPATING THIS TO
TAKE SHAPE AS MORE OF A SCATTERED VS BROKEN DECK OF CLOUDS...SO HAVE
KEPT LOW TEMPS IN THE TEENS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CWA...WITH
WARMER TEMPS IN THE SOUTHEAST.
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL LONG TERM FORECAST WITH TIMING AND
PLACEMENT DETAILS OF ATMOSPHERIC FEATURES REMAINING CONSISTENT THE
PAST FEW DAYS. TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL BE NEAR TO A LITTLE
ABOVE SEASONAL VALUES THOUGH SHOULD BE ABOVE GUIDANCE VALUES. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WELL ADVERTISED UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM IS STILL ON TRACK TO IMPACT THE STATE MONDAY THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY. PRECIPITATION TYPE DUE TO SOME UNCERTAINTY OF LOW
LEVEL TEMPERATURE PROFILE REMAINS THE PRIMARY CHALLENGE WITH THE
SYSTEM. THE PAST SEVERAL EVENTS IN ADDITION TO LOW LEVEL FORECAST
PROFILES SUGGEST THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAINLY RAIN FOR THE
SOUTHERN HALF TO TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE PRECIPITATION
TYPE BECOMES MUCH MORE PROBLEMATIC OVER NORTHERN IOWA. VERY WELL
COULD HAVE A TRANSITION ZONE TO ALL SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN FEW TIER
OF COUNTIES AND COULD RESULT IN MODERATE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS.
WILL ADD THE POTENTIAL TO THE HWO.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE STILL ON TRACK MID NEXT WEEK. PROFILES ARE A BIT
COLDER WITH THIS SYSTEM AND COULD RESULT IN A MORE WIDESPREAD LIGHT
SNOW EVENT. LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES AROUND TO END THE FORECAST
PERIOD HOWEVER ANYTHING THAT WOULD OCCUR WOULD BE QUITE LIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...18/00Z
GENERALLY WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD. ONLY
EXCEPTION WILL BE THIS EVENING WHERE SOME MVFR CIGS WILL BE FOUND IN
LOCALIZED AREAS IN NORTH CENTRAL IOWA. STRONGER NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE QUICKLY THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTHWEST. THE QUIET AVIATION WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO
SATURDAY WITH WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BEITLICH
LONG TERM...DONAVON
AVIATION...COGIL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
326 PM CST THU FEB 16 2012
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
LATEST WV IMAGERY WITH H500 RUC ANALYSIS SHOWED CONFLUENT UPPER
LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY...WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE
APPROACHING THE MT/ND BORDER. SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTED 1025MB HIGH
CENTERED OVER KS/MO BORDER...WITH A NORTH/SOUTH ORIENTED TROUGH
LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE.
AS THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS
OVERNIGHT...AND THE SURFACE HIGH MEANDERS EASTWARD...THE LOW LEVEL
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK FROM THE WEST TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST
OVERNIGHT. THEY SHOULD REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO MITIGATE ANY
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG. HOWEVER...TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS SHOW SOME
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DEVELOPING BY MORNING...SO FEEL THAT PATCHY FOG
IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SNOW COVERED AREAS. FOR OVERNIGHT
LOW TEMPS WENT WITH THE BIAS-CORRECTED GUIDANCE.
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECAST CHALLENGE THROUGH THE PERIOD REMAINS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
IMPACTING THE MIDWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK. BEFORE THEN...SHORT WAVE
ENERGY DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH ERN MONTANA/WRN NORTH DAKOTA WILL
PUSH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. GOOD KINEMATICS AND A PUSH OF
TEMPERATURE ADVECTION WILL ARRIVE WITH THE SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM WILL
BE LACKING MOISTURE HOWEVER. THAT SAID...IT APPEARS TO BE A SMALL
WINDOW WITH FLURRIES OR WORST CASE SCENARIO A LIGHT SNOW SHOWER TO
MOVE THROUGH INTO MID MORNING. A SFC BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH
DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY AS WELL. IT WILL NOT REACH THE SOUTHEAST
UNTIL THE AFTERNOON...THEREFORE A GOOD WARMUP AHEAD OF BOUNDARY IS
POSSIBLE. THE COLD ADVECTION WILL BE FOCUSED NEAR 925 MB WITH THE
SFC IMPACT LAGGING. WITH THIS...MIXING WILL OCCUR AND LIMIT THE SFC
IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY. ANOTHER BOUNDARY WILL DROP
SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL LEAD TO A COOLER YET DRY WEEKEND.
STILL A COMPLEX SITUATION EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH AN ACTIVE FLOW AND
NUMEROUS PIECES OF ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE LONG WAVE TROUGH. THE
FOCUS IS ON THREE OF THE EMBEDDED IMPULSES WITH ONE NORTH INTO
CANADA...ONE IMPACTING THE MIDWEST AND ANOTHER DROPPING WELL TO THE
SOUTH. EACH COULD CERTAINLY IMPACT THE OTHERS REGARDING TIMING AND
PLACEMENT BUT AT THIS TIME...SOME CONSENSUS DEVELOPING REGARDING
EACH. FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATE MONDAY THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY. TRENDS ARE SUGGESTING THE PRECIPITATION COULD BE MOSTLY
SNOW OVER THE NORTH WITH A MIX OR EVEN ALL RAIN TO THE SOUTH. THE
FLOW WILL REMAIN ACTIVE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED WITH
ADDITIONAL POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURES GENERALLY
NEAR TO ABOVE SEASONAL VALUES.
&&
.AVIATION...16/18Z
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ONLY CAVEAT WILL
BE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY FOG DURING THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING
HOURS. HOWEVER...WESTERLY WINDS SHOULD LIMIT THE COVERAGE...SO
CURRENTLY HAVE NO RESTRICTIONS. WIND WILL SHIFT FROM THE WEST TO
SOUTHWEST BY TOMORROW MORNING.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BEITLICH
LONG TERM...DONAVON
AVIATION...BEITLICH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
552 PM CST FRI FEB 17 2012
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TOMORROW)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST FRI FEB 17 2012
TONIGHT:
TONIGHT SHOULD BE THE MOST INTERESTING IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON WITH DEWPOINTS
RUNNING NEAR 40 DEG F AT KP28. KDDC WSR-88D IS ALREADY INDICATING RETURNED
POWER FROM SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA.
THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING. HAVE TRIMMED POPS ACROSS MY NORTHWEST COUNTIES AS
THE BETTER 700 HPA DEFORMATION AXIS WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. SNOW AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE LIGHT AND WELL UNDER ADVISORY
CRITERIA. THE OVERALL UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE SO PRECIPITATION
IN GENERAL SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE AS WELL. PRECIPITATION SHOULD
CLEAR SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY DAWN. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE ON THE "MILD"
SIDE - PARTICULARLY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS DUE TO COPIOUS CLOUD COVER,
ONGOING PRECIP, AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS. LOOK FOR MID 30S DEG F TOWARDS
MEDICINE LODGE AND PRATT. COOLER LOWS IN THE MID 20S DEG F CAN BE EXPECTED
FROM SYRACUSE TO SCOTT CITY.
TOMORROW:
THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DRIVING THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE EAST OF
THE AREA TOMORROW. SUBSIDENCE AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS KANSAS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE
BACK INTO THE LOW 40S DEG F FOR HIGHS. WINDS WILL SLOWLY VEER TO THE
SE BY TOMORROW NIGHT AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO SLIDE
EAST.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST FRI FEB 17 2012
THE NEXT WEATHER "MAKER" WILL BE APPROACHING THE PLAINS LATE IN THE
WEEKEND. A SIGNIFICANT S/WV TROUGH THAT WAS MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST TODAY WILL BE DIGGING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE IN THE
WEEKEND. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE FOR INCREASING SOUTHERLY SURFACE
WINDS SUNDAY (AND MAY REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA) AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES. WITH CONTINUED SOUTHERLY WINDS AND INCREASING
HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY MORNING
WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE S/WV WILL BE ARRIVING
SOMETIME MONDAY BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE DYNAMICS WITH THE UPPER
FEATURE WILL BE IN NEBRASKA. HOWEVER, WITH SUCH A SHARP TROUGH IN
THE MID LEVELS THERE MAY BEEN ENOUGH LIFT TO PRODUCE LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS OR MORE THAN LIKELY VIRGA BEHIND THE FRONT LATE
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. THE VARIOUS DETERMINISTIC MODELS MOVE THIS
UPPER TROUGH BY QUICKLY.
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY THE AREA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
NORTHWEST FLOW BUT ANY SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA. MAX TEMPERATURES IN MY CWA WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL. THERE ARE HINTS OF ANOTHER S/WV IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW
APPROACHING WEDNESDAY BUT IT SHOULD BE TOO WEAK TO PRODUCE MUCH MORE
THAN MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS.
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK THE UPPER FLOW SHOULD BECOME MORE ZONAL AS
TROUGHINESS DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. AND HEIGHTS FALL. THIS
TROUGHINESS ADVERTISED BY LONG RANGE MODELS MAY IMPACT THE AREA BUT
IT WOULD NOT BE UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND AT THE EARLIEST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 549 PM CST FRI FEB 17 2012
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WITH ELEVATED BASES ARE ONGOING ALONG AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE KDDC TERMINAL. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AND UPPER
LEVEL DEFORMATION WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW ASCENT AND CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT/SCATTERED PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE REST OF THE
EVENING UNTIL AROUND 8Z AT LEAST. CEILINGS COULD DROP INTO THE IFR
CATEGORY AT DDC FOR A FEW HOURS IN SHRA AND -SHSN. RUC MODEL
FORECASTS FOR CEILINGS INDICATE MUCH DRIER AIR AFTER ABOUT 9Z WITH
THE LOW STRATUS RELEGATED CLOSER TO THE OKLAHOMA LINE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 29 41 22 52 / 40 10 0 0
GCK 27 44 23 53 / 20 10 0 0
EHA 31 40 26 60 / 20 10 0 0
LBL 33 43 25 55 / 40 10 0 0
HYS 25 43 22 49 / 10 10 0 0
P28 34 43 23 50 / 80 20 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SUGDEN
SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM....HUTTON
AVIATION...RUSSELL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1113 PM CST WED FEB 15 2012
...UPDATE TO AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TOMORROW)
ISSUED AT 353 PM CST WED FEB 15 2012
TONIGHT:
THE NEAR TERM/MESOSCALE CONCERN FOR TONIGHT WAS WHAT TO DO WITH POPS
FROM THE LATEST KDDC WSR-88D TRENDS. THIS PRECIPITATION IS BEING CAUSED
BY A 700 HPA DEFORMATION AXIS ON THE BACKSIDE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
RUC AND PARTICULARLY HRRR WERE AGGRESSIVE WITH FORECAST COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITIES
THIS MORNING. IN ADDITION, 700 HPA OMEGA WAS ALSO NOTED IN THE SAME
REGION. THE 700 HPA DEFORMATION ZONE PER SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS IS
BECOMING STRETCHED ALONG AN AXIS OF DILATATION. THEREFORE HAVE TRIMMED
THE POPS EVEN FURTHER FROM AN UPDATE THIS MORNING WITH THE AERIAL COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS DIMINISHING TO NOTHING BY 00Z TONIGHT.
MODELS SHOW THAT AFTER 00Z, LOWER DEWPOINT ADVECTION WILL OCCUR AT THE
SURFACE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW A DRYING IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS.
THEREFORE HAVE A CLEARING TREND IN THE SKY GRIDS. A LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY
TO NORTHERLY WIND IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE PRIMARILY
IN THE 20S DEG F.
THURSDAY:
A FORECAST CONCERN THAT WAS MENTIONED IN THE TAF SECTION BELOW WAS THE
POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING FOG. MOS GUIDANCE WAS AGGRESSIVE, INCLUDING LAMP
GUIDANCE, IN BRINGING LOW STRATUS AND FOG BACK TO THE REGION TOMORROW.
BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT THE LAYER OF SATURATION IS NEAR
THE SURFACE AND DOESN`T EXTEND VERY FAR UP IN THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN
FOR CONSIDERABLE DRYING/LARGE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE FORECAST. AS
A RESULT, WILL NOT BRING THE MENTION OF FREEZING FOG IN THE FORECAST
FOR NOW. FROST LOOKS MORE LIKELY AT THE SURFACE. EVEN IF FREEZING
FOG DOES OCCUR, IT SHOULD BE VERY PATCHY DUE TO DRY AIR IMMEDIATELY
ABOVE THE SURFACE, INCLUDING WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
WINDS TOMORROW MORNING WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS A CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS KANSAS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FA ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH. HIGHS
TOMORROW SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 40S AND NEAR 50 DEG F. NO PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AND WITH SUBSIDENCE EXPECTED THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM CST WED FEB 15 2012
A FAIRLY ACTIVE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD A BROAD TROUGH WILL
BE SITUATED FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION
WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS. A TROUGH/CLOSED LOW WILL BE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
INTO NORTHWEST MEXICO. THE GFS MODEL SHOWS THE NORTHERN PLAINS SHORTWAVE
PHASING WITH THE SOUTHWEST CONUS SYSTEM WITH THE RESULTANT TROUGH MOVING
INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THIS MODEL ALSO
BREAKS OUT SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS SHOW THE TWO SYSTEMS REMAINING SEPARATE
WITH BOTH SYSTEMS PASSING BY EITHER NORTH OR SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS. THE GFS HAS STRUGGLED WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL RUNS WHICH LEADS LESS CREDENCE TO THAT MODEL SOLUTION.
WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THAT TIME PERIOD.
WHILE THIS WAVE IS MOVING EAST OF THE CENTRAL CONUS...ANOTHER SYSTEM
WILL BE MOVING INTO THE ROCKIES. BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY THE ECMWF
SHOWS A PIECE OF THIS WAVE EJECTING OUT OVER WESTERN KANSAS WITH PRECIPITATION
BREAKING OUT OVER WESTERN KANSAS. THE MODELS HAVE DIFFERING SOLUTIONS
IN HOW THIS WAVE WILL EVOLVE AND WHEN IT WILL MOVE OUT THROUGH THE
CENTRAL CONUS. NOT REAL CONFIDENT IN ANY SOLUTION BUT THE ECMWF
SEEMS TO SHOW A LITTLE MORE CONTINUITY WITH ITS PREVIOUS RUNS. THE
LATEST CR INIT HAS CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN 2/3RDS OFF THE CWA WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CST WED FEB 15 2012
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
LATE THURSDAY EVENING. AS FOR WINDS, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN
NORTHEASTERN COLORADO WILL DRIFT EAST INTO WESTERN KANSAS EARLY
THIS MORNING THEN PUSH FURTHER EASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS INTO
MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 22 48 26 50 / 10 0 0 10
GCK 19 48 24 51 / 10 0 0 0
EHA 21 49 27 53 / 10 0 0 10
LBL 22 51 25 53 / 10 0 0 10
HYS 21 47 26 47 / 10 0 0 0
P28 26 50 27 54 / 10 0 0 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SUGDEN
SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM....GERARD
AVIATION...JJOHNSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
947 PM EST FRI FEB 17 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. A WEAK FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES SUNDAY WILL BRING SNOW TO
THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE 03Z ENHANCED SHORT TERM FORECAST UPDATE HAS BEEN ISSUED THIS
EVENING TO MAKE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY GRIDS AS MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. OTHERWISE, NO CHANGE
TO THE FORECAST.
THE LATEST RUC MID-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
IN A ZONAL FLOW WITH A DRY SWATH OF AIR ADVECTING EAST OF THE AREA.
AT THE SURFACE, MSAS/OBS ANALYSIS INDICATE A 1022MB HIGH CENTERED
ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO AND EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD INTO WESTERN PA.
FURTHER UPSTREAM, A WEAK LOW IS CENTERED OVER LAKE MICHIGAN WITH
A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST OF THIS FEATURE INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION
BEING THE MID-LEVEL DECK ADVECTING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST AHEAD OF THE LOW.
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA THROUGH DAWN, WITH CLOUD COVERAGE
INCREASING THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR CALM
WINDS EARLY ON WILL BE OPTIMAL FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. THUS,
UNDERCUT LAMP GUIDANCE A FEW DEGREES WITH LOWS RANGING FROM LOWER
20S ACROSS THE EASTERN RIDGES TO THE MID 20S ALONG THE I-80
CORRIDOR TO THE UPPER 20S ELSEWHERE.
SATURDAY...A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL CROSS LAKE ERIE SATURDAY
AND SPREAD CLOUDS INTO THE AREA FROM W TO E. MUCH LIKE THE MID
CLOUDS TONIGHT...ANY PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CYCLONE SHALL STAY
N OF THE TURNPIKE. LOWERED POPS TO THE SCHC TO CHC CATEGORY AS MOST
OF THE FORCING SKIRTS ALONG THE PA/NY BORDER. TEMPERATURES ARE
CLOSE TO MOSGUIDE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
12Z MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO TRACK A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE
LOWER MS VALLEY TO THE CAROLINA COAST BY SUNDAY EVENING. GFS STILL
BRINGS HEAVIER SNOW FURTHER NORTH AND HAS FASTER TIMING THAN
ECMWF BUT MODELS ARE IS CLOSER AGREEMENT THAN IN PREVIOUS RUNS.
HAVE ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR TUCKER COUNTY WV FOR SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY EVENING FOR POTENTIAL SNOW ACCUMULATION AROUND 6
INCHES. IS STILL TOO EARLY FOR ADVISORIES...BUT PRESTON AND
GARRETT WOULD LIKELY REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA BASED ON CURRENT
THINKING. BELIEVE THAT NORTHERN EXTENT OF SNOW WILL CUT OFF
QUICKLY...WITH LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION NORTH OF THE PA/WV LINE.
SNOW WILL EXIT BY 06Z MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER
AIR QUICKLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. NORTH TO NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL
FLOW SHOULD NOT BE CONDUCIVE FOR ANY SCATTERED WRAP-AROUND
PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. EXPECT SUNNY CONDITIONS
FOR WASHINGTONS BIRTHDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE MID 30S
NORTH AND ALONG THE RIDGES TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE EAST OFF THE EAST COAST BY LATE TUESDAY.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS THEN SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH A BROAD TROUGH SETTING UP
OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY BY THURSDAY. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED
TO SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
AS INDIVIDUAL WAVES ROTATE THROUGH THIS SYSTEM...TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION WILL BE DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE AT THIS POINT. AFTER A
DRY START ON TUESDAY UNDER DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE...PLAN TO
FORECAST CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND INTO
SATURDAY. WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY
MAY BRING A FEW SNOW FLURRIES TO THE NORTHERN PORTS.
OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
IFR WEATHER POSSIBLE SUN ONTO SUN NIGHT ACROSS NRN WV AND WRN MD WITH
THE PASSING OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS WRN VA. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER
WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS PREDICTED.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR WVZ041.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
709 PM EST FRI FEB 17 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. A WEAK FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES SUNDAY WILL BRING SNOW TO
THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE 00Z ENHANCED SHORT TERM FORECAST UPDATE HAS BEEN ISSUED THIS
EVENING TO MAKE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD COVERAGE AND TEMPS
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE, LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST.
THE LATEST RUC MID-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
IN A ZONAL FLOW WITH DRY AIR ADVECTING ACROSS THE AREA. AT THE
SURFACE, MSAS/OBS ANALYSIS INDICATE A 1022MB HIGH CENTERED ACROSS
SOUTHERN OHIO AND EXTENDING INTO WESTERN PA. FURTHER UPSTREAM, A
WEAK LOW IS CENTERED NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN WITH A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING SOUTHWEST OF THIS FEATURE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WITH
DRY AIR ALOFT, SKIES ARE CLEAR ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING.
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
THE AREA DRY. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA
BY DAWN, WITH CLOUD COVERAGE BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY. CLEAR SKIES
AND NEAR CALM WINDS WILL BE OPTIMAL FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING
FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT. THUS, UNDERCUT LAMP GUIDANCE A FEW
DEGREES WITH LOWS RANGING FROM LOWER 20S ACROSS THE EASTERN
RIDGES TO THE MID 20S ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR TO THE UPPER 20S
ELSEWHERE.
SATURDAY...A CLIPPER SYSTEM CROSSES LAKE ERIE SATURDAY SPREADING
CLOUDS FROM W TO E COMMENCING IN THE MID MRNG HOURS. MUCH LIKE
THE MID CLOUDS TONIGHT...ANY PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CYCLONE
SHALL STAY N OF THE TURNPIKE. LOWERED POPS TO THE SCHC CATEGORY AS
MOST OF THE FORCING SKIRTS ALONG THE PA/NY BORDER. TEMPERATURES
WERE CLOSE TO MOSGUIDE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
12Z MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO TRACK A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE
LOWER MS VALLEY TO THE CAROLINA COAST BY SUNDAY EVENING. GFS STILL
BRINGS HEAVIER SNOW FURTHER NORTH AND HAS FASTER TIMING THAN
ECMWF BUT MODELS ARE IS CLOSER AGREEMENT THAN IN PREVIOUS RUNS.
HAVE ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR TUCKER COUNTY WV FOR SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY EVENING FOR POTENTIAL SNOW ACCUMULATION AROUND 6
INCHES. IS STILL TOO EARLY FOR ADVISORIES...BUT PRESTON AND
GARRETT WOULD LIKELY REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA BASED ON CURRENT
THINKING. BELIEVE THAT NORTHERN EXTENT OF SNOW WILL CUT OFF
QUICKLY...WITH LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION NORTH OF THE PA/WV LINE.
SNOW WILL EXIT BY 06Z MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER
AIR QUICKLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. NORTH TO NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL
FLOW SHOULD NOT BE CONDUCIVE FOR ANY SCATTERED WRAP-AROUND
PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. EXPECT SUNNY CONDITIONS
FOR WASHINGTONS BIRTHDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE MID 30S
NORTH AND ALONG THE RIDGES TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE EAST OFF THE EAST COAST BY LATE TUESDAY.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS THEN SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH A BROAD TROUGH SETTING UP
OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY BY THURSDAY. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED
TO SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
AS INDIVIDUAL WAVES ROTATE THROUGH THIS SYSTEM...TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION WILL BE DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE AT THIS POINT. AFTER A
DRY START ON TUESDAY UNDER DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE...PLAN TO
FORECAST CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND INTO
SATURDAY. WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY
MAY BRING A FEW SNOW FLURRIES TO THE NORTHERN PORTS.
OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
IFR WEATHER POSSIBLE SUN ONTO SUN NIGHT ACROSS NRN WV AND WRN MD WITH
THE PASSING OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS WRN VA. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER
WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS PREDICTED.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR WVZ041.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
704 PM EST FRI FEB 17 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. A WEAK FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES SUNDAY WILL BRING SNOW TO
THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE 00Z ENHANCED SHORT TERM FORECAST UPDATE HAS BEEN ISSUED THIS
EVENING TO MAKE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD COVERAGE AND TEMPS
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE, LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST.
THE LATEST RUC MID-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
IN A ZONAL FLOW WITH DRY AIR ADVECTING ACROSS THE AREA. AT THE
SURFACE, MSAS/OBS ANALYSIS INDICATE A 1022MB HIGH CENTERED ACROSS
SOUTHERN OHIO AND EXTENDING INTO WESTERN PA. FURTHER UPSTREAM, A
WEAK LOW IS CENTERED NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN WITH A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING SOUTHWEST OF THIS FEATURE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WITH
DRY AIR ALOFT, SKIES ARE CLEAR ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING.
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
THE AREA DRY. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA
BY DAWN, WITH CLOUD COVERAGE BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY. CLEAR SKIES
AND NEAR CALM WINDS WILL BE OPTIMAL FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING
FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT. THUS, UNDERCUT LAMP GUIDANCE A FEW
DEGREES WITH LOWS RANGING FROM LOWER 20S ACROSS THE EASTERN
RIDGES TO THE MID 20S ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR TO THE UPPER 20S
ELSEWHERE.
SATURDAY...A CLIPPER SYSTEM CROSSES LAKE ERIE SATURDAY SPREADING
CLOUDS FROM W TO E COMMENCING IN THE MID MRNG HOURS. MUCH LIKE
THE MID CLOUDS TONIGHT...ANY PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CYCLONE
SHALL STAY N OF THE TURNPIKE. LOWERED POPS TO THE SCHC CATEGORY AS
MOST OF THE FORCING SKIRTS ALONG THE PA/NY BORDER. TEMPERATURES
WERE CLOSE TO MOSGUIDE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
12Z MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO TRACK A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE
LOWER MS VALLEY TO THE CAROLINA COAST BY SUNDAY EVENING. GFS STILL
BRINGS HEAVIER SNOW FURTHER NORTH AND HAS FASTER TIMING THAN
ECMWF BUT MODELS ARE IS CLOSER AGREEMENT THAN IN PREVIOUS RUNS.
HAVE ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR TUCKER COUNTY WV FOR SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY EVENING FOR POTENTIAL SNOW ACCUMULATION AROUND 6
INCHES. IS STILL TOO EARLY FOR ADVISORIES...BUT PRESTON AND
GARRETT WOULD LIKELY REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA BASED ON CURRENT
THINKING. BELIEVE THAT NORTHERN EXTENT OF SNOW WILL CUT OFF
QUICKLY...WITH LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION NORTH OF THE PA/WV LINE.
SNOW WILL EXIT BY 06Z MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER
AIR QUICKLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. NORTH TO NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL
FLOW SHOULD NOT BE CONDUCIVE FOR ANY SCATTERED WRAP-AROUND
PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. EXPECT SUNNY CONDITIONS
FOR WASHINGTONS BIRTHDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE MID 30S
NORTH AND ALONG THE RIDGES TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE EAST OFF THE EAST COAST BY LATE TUESDAY.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS THEN SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH A BROAD TROUGH SETTING UP
OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY BY THURSDAY. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED
TO SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
AS INDIVIDUAL WAVES ROTATE THROUGH THIS SYSTEM...TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION WILL BE DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE AT THIS POINT. AFTER A
DRY START ON TUESDAY UNDER DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE...PLAN TO
FORECAST CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR FORECAST. WINDS ARE THE MAIN STORY WITH GUSTS
AROUND 20KTS THIS AFTN.
OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
IFR WEATHER POSSIBLE SUN ONTO SUN NIGHT ACROSS NRN WV AND WRN MD WITH
THE PASSING OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS WRN VA. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER
WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS PREDICTED.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR WVZ041.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
337 PM EST THU FEB 16 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING WITH
LINGERING PATCHY DRIZZLE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT BEHIND A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION, BRINGING
DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THE LATEST RUC MID-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A WEAK SHORT WAVE
TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA WITH A VORT MAX
SHIFTING ACROSS THE EASTERN RIDGES. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS LOCATED
ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO, WITH STRATUS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.
TONIGHT...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND DEEPER MOISTURE WILL SHIFT EAST
OF THE AREA WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING IN ITS WAKE. DESPITE
THICKNESSES DECREASING, DRY AIR ALOFT IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE
WILL PREVENT SNOW SHOWERS AND ALLOW FOR PATCHES OF DRIZZLE AND
FREEZING DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE A MAV/MET BLEND, IN
THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THERE IS STRONG OPERATIONAL MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THE REGION WILL BE
IN A ZONAL FLOW WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND A DEEP LAYER OF DRY AIR ABOVE
850MB MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY.
THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF
REGION ON SATURDAY. THE EXCEPTION IS THE CHC OF SNOW NORTH OF
PITTSBURGH ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK LOW MOVES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL BE
AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...A WEEKEND SNOW EVENT FOR THE
SOUTHEAST RIDGES APPEARS TO BE COMING INTO BETTER FOCUS NOW.
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGHS WILL PHASE AS THEY MOVE ACROSS
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND MOVE INTO THE CAROLINAS. 12Z NAM/GFS RUNS
HAVE TRENDED FURTHER NORTH WITH THE SURFACE LOW AND THE NORTHERN
EXTENT OF ITS PRECIPITATION SHIELD. FOR SNOW AMOUNTS, THIS EVENT MAY
NEED FUTURE WINTER STORM WATCHES AND WARNINGS, AS DETERMINISTIC
MODELS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR 6 TO 12 INCHES OF WET SNOW ACROSS
TUCKER AND GARRETT COUNTIES WITH THE LOWER END OF THE ENVELOPE
POSSIBLE FOR PRESTON COUNTY. WITH THIS IN MIND, HAVE ADDED MENTION
OF THIS TO THE HWO.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA, THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF
DEEPER MOISTURE WITH SNOW LOOKS TO REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF PITTSBURGH,
WITH ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATION IF ANY POSSIBLE FOR THESE LOCATIONS.
OTHERWISE, A DRY FORECAST IS IN PLACE AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STORM SYSTEM MOVING UP THE EAST COAST WILL WRAP UP SUNDAY NIGHT
ALONG THE RIDGES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRING DRY CONDITIONS FOR
MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. MODEL DETAILS BECOME FUZZY BY TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT MULTIPLE WAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS UNSETTLED PATTERN
WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS COLD ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW EACH EVENING.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RAIN SHOWERS WILL CLEAR ALL TERMINALS BY MID AFTERNOON. PRIMARY
FLIGHT IMPACT THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS...WITH
ISOLATED LIFR CIGS. VISIBILITIES HAVE ALSO BEEN LOW BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL OHIO...AND WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO THE WEST AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
BEHIND THE FRONT...CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO RISE AND SCATTER OUT. HAVE
KEPT RESTRICTIONS IN A BIT LONGER OVERNIGHT THAN MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS. ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 20 KTS OUT OF
THE WEST...ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR.
OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES COULD CLIP NORTHERN TERMINALS WITH RESTRICTIONS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF
THE ATLANTIC COAST COULD THEN CLIP SOUTHEASTERN TERMINALS SUCH AS
LBE AND MGW SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BRING VFR CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
132 PM EST THU FEB 16 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH LINGERING PATCHY DRIZZLE POSSIBLE TONIGHT BEHIND A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION, BRINGING
DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
18Z ENHANCED SHORT TERM FORECAST UPDATE HAS BEEN ISSUED TO
BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO AN END EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BEHIND IT INTO THE EVENING.
THE LATEST RUC MID-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A WEAK SHORT WAVE
TROUGH LOCATED ALONG THE OHIO/PENNSYLVANIA BORDER WITH A VORT MAX
AT ITS BASE IN SOUTHERN OHIO. THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH A BROAD SURFACE
TROUGH ARE PROVIDING FORCING FOR RAIN AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT
IN INDIANA.
THIS AFTERNOON...THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA. WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL QUICKLY COME TO AN WITH JUST
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AFTERWARD,
HRRR SUPPORTS MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT TODAY, WITH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN LAMP GUIDANCE.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE EASTERN RIDGES AND
I-80 CORRIDOR TO NEAR 50 IN PORTIONS OF EASTERN OHIO AND NORTH-
CENTRAL WV.
TONIGHT...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND DEEPER MOISTURE WILL SHIFT EAST
OF THE AREA WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING IN ITS WAKE. DESPITE
THICKNESSES DECREASING, DRY AIR ALOFT IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE
WILL PREVENT SNOW SHOWERS AND ALLOW FOR PATCHES OF DRIZZLE AND
FREEZING DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE A MAV/MET BLEND, IN
THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND NEAR SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES INTO EARLY SATURDAY. SHORTWAVE AND WEAK FRONT WILL
SLIDE ACROSS EASTERN LAKES LATER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
MAINLY AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AS DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING.
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL RISE ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SPLIT FLOW IN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM WITH SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION
INTO THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES SUNDAY. ECMWF HAS TRENDED TOWARD GFS
SOLUTION WITH A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK SO RAISED POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST. LITTLE CHANGE IN REMAINDER OF EXTENDED FORECAST WITH
DRY HIGH PRESSURE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BEFORE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM BRINGS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RAIN SHOWERS WILL CLEAR ALL TERMINALS BY MID AFTERNOON. PRIMARY
FLIGHT IMPACT THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS...WITH
ISOLATED LIFR CIGS. VISIBILITIES HAVE ALSO BEEN LOW BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL OHIO...AND WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO THE WEST AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
BEHIND THE FRONT...CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO RISE AND SCATTER OUT. HAVE
KEPT RESTRICTIONS IN A BIT LONGER OVERNIGHT THAN MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS. ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 20 KTS OUT OF
THE WEST...ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR.
OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES COULD CLIP NORTHERN TERMINALS WITH RESTRICTIONS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF
THE ATLANTIC COAST COULD THEN CLIP SOUTHEASTERN TERMINALS SUCH AS
LBE AND MGW SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BRING VFR CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
1023 AM EST THU FEB 16 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SHOWERS ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH LINGERING PATCHY DRIZZLE POSSIBLE TONIGHT BEHIND A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION,
BRINGING DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
15Z ENHANCED SHORT TERM FORECAST UPDATE HAS BEEN ISSUED TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE LATEST RADAR/TEMP TRENDS AND TO ADD THE MENTION OF
DRIZZLE/FZDZ AFTER 03Z.
THE LATEST RUC MID-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A WEAK SHORT WAVE
TROUGH LOCATED ALONG THE INDIANA/OHIO BORDER WITH A VORT MAX AT
ITS BASE. THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH ARE
PROVIDING FORCING FOR RAIN AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT IN INDIANA.
THIS AFTERNOON...THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD AREA OF RAIN TO CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA. MID-
LEVEL VORT ENERGY WILL PUSH EAST OF THE AREA, ENDING MORE
WIDESPREAD FORCING FOR ASCENT BY 21Z. AFTERWARD, HRRR SUPPORTS
MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT TODAY, WITH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN LAMP GUIDANCE.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE EASTERN RIDGES AND
I-80 CORRIDOR TO NEAR 50 IN PORTIONS OF EASTERN OHIO AND NORTH-
CENTRAL WV.
TONIGHT...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND DEEPER MOISTURE WILL SHIFT EAST
OF THE AREA AFTER 00Z, WISH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING IN ITS
WAKE. DESPITE THICKNESSES DECREASING, DRY AIR ALOFT IN THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE WILL PREVENT SNOW SHOWERS AND ALLOW FOR
PATCHES OF DRIZZLE AND FREEZING DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS
ARE A MAV/MET BLEND, IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND NEAR SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES INTO EARLY SATURDAY. SHORTWAVE AND WEAK FRONT WILL
SLIDE ACROSS EASTERN LAKES LATER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
MAINLY AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AS DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING.
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL RISE ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SPLIT FLOW IN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM WITH SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION
INTO THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES SUNDAY. ECMWF HAS TRENDED TOWARD GFS
SOLUTION WITH A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK SO RAISED POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST. LITTLE CHANGE IN REMAINDER OF EXTENDED FORECAST WITH
DRY HIGH PRESSURE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BEFORE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM BRINGS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL
BRING RESTRICTIONS TO ALL SITES. RESTRICTIONS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
IN THE WAY OF MVFR/IFR CIGS. HOWEVER...IFR VSBYS IN FOG ARE
OCCURRING UPSTREAM OVER INDIANA AND OHIO. FOR NOW...MAINTAINED
MAINLY MVFR VISBYS BASED OFF OF THE MOST RECENT LAMP...NAM...AND
SREF GUIDANCE.
SE WINDS WILL VEER TO THE W-SW WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TODAY.
SPEEDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 5-10KTS.
OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
CEILING RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY BEFORE
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IN HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE
WEEKEND. ANOTHER SYSTEM PASSING TO THE SOUTHEAST MAY BRING
RESTRICTIONS SOUTHEAST OF KPIT WITH SNOW LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN VFR CONDITIONS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
700 PM EST FRI FEB 17 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 238 PM EST FRI FEB 17 2012
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EASTWARD THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN
TONIGHT PRODUCING SOME SNOWFALL. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
ARRIVE FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS FAIR WEATHER SYSTEM WILL KEEP THE
AREA DRY GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL
ARRIVE FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH SOME RAIN OR SNOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 238 PM EST FRI FEB 17 2012
RADAR SHOWS A DEVELOPING AREA OF SNOW FROM NEAR GRAND RAPIDS WEST
THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF LAKE MI. SOME INSTABILITY WAS PRESENT
MAINLY FROM 850 MB TO 700 MB. THE BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE IN THE
DGZ TRACKS FROM NEAR MUSKEGON TO HOLLAND AT 21Z TO CADILLAC AND MT
PLEASANT BY 03Z. DEEP DRYING ARRIVES IN MUSKEGON BY 03Z...WHICH
SHOULD SHUT DOWN THE HIGH RISK FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. THE
HRRR RUC DOES SHOW A SUDDEN DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW IN THE 23Z TO 01Z
TIMEFRAME JUST WEST OF HOLLAND AND SOUTH HAVEN WHICH TRACKS EAST
INTO SOUTHWEST LOWER MI...WHICH WOULD PROLONG THE RISK FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW BEYOND 03Z. COLDER SURFACES COULD SEE AN INCH
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WHERE ANY BAND PERSISTS. MUCH OF THAT
SNOW COULD FALL IN AN HOURS TIME EARLY THIS EVENING. WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW COULD LEAD TO A
RETURN OF SOME SNOW FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. AS A
RESULT I WILL KEEP THE HIGHER POPS GOING TONIGHT...MAINLY FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF SNOW GOING INTO
SATURDAY.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM EST FRI FEB 17 2012
(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
AS A STORM MOVES ALONG THE GULF COAST...HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOVER
OVER THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AFTER MONDAY A CLIPPER AND A
WAVE MOVING EAST FROM THE ROCKIES ARE PROGD TO PHASE NEAR THE GREAT
LAKES TUESDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE A PERIOD OF SNOW TUESDAY NORTH OF
I-96 AND GENERALLY RAIN SOUTH OF THERE. TWO MORE CLIPPERS...ONE ON
WEDNESDAY AND ANOTHER THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN PCPN FROM WED
INTO FRIDAY. THE WEDNESDAY CLIPPER WILL DRAW A BIT MORE WARM AIR
NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION WHICH WILL RESULT IN SOME MORE LIGHT RAIN
OVER THE SRN HALF OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY BEFORE IT MOVES THROUGH. AS
COLDER AIR FLOWS IN BEHIND IT...WE/LL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE AT SOME
LIGHT SNOW BY THE TIME THE THURSDAY NIGHT CLIPPER ARRIVES. FROM
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY....THE LIGHT PCPN THAT FALLS WILL BE IN THE
FORM OF SNOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM EST FRI FEB 17 2012
MOST OF THE IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS RELATED TO THE EARLIER BURST OF
HEAVY SNOW ALONG THE I-96 CORRIDOR HAVE ENDED... AND VFR IS NOW
THE PREDOMINENT CONDITION AT THE SRN LWR MI TERMINALS.
MODELS SUGGEST SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS COULD STILL OCCUR THIS
EVENING... SO MAINTAINED A TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR CONDITIONS FOR THE
I-96 CORRIDOR. VFR EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG THE I-94 CORRIDOR
THIS EVENING.
AS THE SFC LOW PRESSURE CENTER TRACKS OVERHEAD LATER TONIGHT...
SUSPECT IFR CONDITIONS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD AGAIN ALONG I-96
AFTER 06Z AND INTO EARLY MORNING SAT. AM LESS CONFIDENT IN IFR
DEVELOPING ALONG THE I-94 CORRIDOR LATE TONIGHT... BUT IT IS QUITE
POSSIBLE ONCE THE SFC LOW PASSES BY AFTER 09Z AND A CYCLONIC NWLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS.
LIFTING/IMPROVING CIGS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AFTER 18Z AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 238 PM EST FRI FEB 17 2012
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ISSUED FOR INCREASING WINDS AND WAVES TONIGHT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST FRI FEB 17 2012
RELATIVELY QUIET WITH THE HYDRO SECTION FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.
NO SIGNIFICANT RUNOFF FORECASTED THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MJS
SHORT TERM...MJS
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...MEADE
MARINE...MJS
HYDROLOGY...MJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1213 AM EST THU FEB 16 2012
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 PM EST WED FEB 15 2012
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WITH
TROUGHING OVER THE WRN CONUS AND A FLAT RIDGE OVER THE EAST. ONE NRN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER NW MN WITH ANOTHER TRAILING
OVER SRN SASK INTO NW ND. A VIGOROUS SRN STREAM SHRTWV MOVING FROM
THE TX/OK PANHANDLE INTO SE KS. AT THE SFC...A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDED
FROM NW ONTARIO THROUGH WRN MN LEAVING LIGHT SW FLOW OVER THE NRN
GREAT LAKES. AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW FROM SRN MN INTO WRN WI WAS
SUPPORTED BY 290K-295K ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH.
TONIGHT AND THU...RADAR TRENDS AND NAM ISENTROPIC PROGS SUGGEST THAT
THE INITIAL AREAS OF PCPN WILL LIFT INTO THE SW CWA THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...WITH LITTLE INCREASE IN INTENSITY EXPECTED...ONLY
MENTIONED CHANCE POPS WITH SNOW ACCUMULATION OF A HALF INCH OR LESS.
AS THE LAGGING SHORTWAVE MOVES TOWARD THE UPPER MS
VALLEY...INCREASING 700-300 MB QVECTOR CONV WITH THE DEEPENING MID
LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALSO PROVIDE ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR AREAS OF LIGHT
SNOW. AGAIN WITH ONLY MODERATE FORCING AND MOISTURE INFLOW...KEPT
ONLY CHANCE POPS WITH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN AN INCH.
HOWEVER...OVER THE ERN CWA...SLIGHTLY GREATER MOISTURE ADVECTION AND
ISENTROPIC ASCENT SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR MORE WIDESPREAD OR SLIGHTLY
HEAVIER PCPN WITH SNOW AMOUNTS TO AROUND AN INCH.
WITH DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE MID 20S OVER THE AREA...MIN TEMPS
WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL...WITH READINGS ONLY FALLING INTO THE
MID AND UPPER 20S. CLOUDS AND LIGHT PCPN SHOULD LIMIT MAX READINGS
TO THE MID 30S.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 PM EST WED FEB 15 2012
WE START THE PERIOD 00Z FRI WITH A 600MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS OVER
THE ERN CWA...ANOTHER WEAKER SHORTWAVE OVER NRN MN...AND ANOTHER
STRONGER SHORTWAVE JUST N OF MANITOBA. THIS RESULTS IN A
BROAD...WEAK SFC LOW TO OUR NE...AND A WEAK SFC RIDGE OVER MN. WITH
NW TO WNW LOW LEVEL WINDS...850MB TEMPS AROUND -10C...AND DEEP
MOISTURE...EXPECT SOME LIGHT UPSLOPE SNOW OVER THE WRN CWA AND SOME
LIGHT LAKE ENHANCED SNOW OVER THE ERN CWA AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD.
AS THE NRN MN SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA LATE THU NIGHT...LES MAY
BECOME A LITTLE MORE ORGANIZED. BY 12Z FRI...850MB TEMPS WILL HAVE
DECREASED TO AROUND -12C WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS FROM THE NW TO WNW.
WILL DECREASE POPS SOME AFTER THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE PASSAGE AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD...THEN INCREASE POPS LATER THU NIGHT. STILL
EXPECT NOTHING MORE THAN LIGHT LES...WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF
LESS THAN AN INCH THROUGH THU NIGHT.
850MB TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY DECREASE FRI...AND BE DOWN TO
-14C BY 00Z SAT...BUT SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE THU NIGHT SHORTWAVE AND
DAYTIME MIXING WILL LEAD TO LES NOT REALLY INCREASING MUCH THROUGH
THE DAY. CHANCE POPS LOOK GOOD FOR FRIDAY IN THE NW TO WNW
SNOWBELTS...WITH AROUND AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS.
FRI NIGHT AND SAT ARE MORE COMPLEX AND UNCERTAIN AS A STRONGER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE AREA. MODELS HAVE SHOWN BOTH RUN TO
RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF
THE SHORTWAVE...WHICH HAS A BIG IMPACT ON PRECIP TIMING/COVERAGE.
BESIDES THE OBVIOUS TIMING DIFFERENCES...ONE OF THE BIGGER
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS RESULTS FROM THE STRENGTH OF THE
SYSTEM. ALL MODELS BRING A DEEPENING SFC LOW SOMEWHERE S OF THE
CWA...BUT THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW IS WHAT IS IN QUESTION. THE
12Z/15 GFS IS THE STRONGEST AND FARTHEST N WITH THE SFC LOW...WHICH
WOULD BRING A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW TO AREAS OF MENOMINEE COUNTY
AND FAR ERN UPPER MI. THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD ALSO BRING LOW LEVEL
WINDS FROM THE NNE...WHEREAS MOST OTHER MODELS SHOW NW TO NNW LOW
LEVEL WINDS...WHICH WOULD MAKES FOR BIG DIFFERENCES IN LES. WILL NOT
USE THE GFS SOLUTION SINCE IT IS MORE OF AN OUTLIER. THUS...WILL
HAVE HIGH CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY POPS IN NNW TO NW WIND SNOWBELTS FRI
NIGHT AND SAT...DIMINISHING LATE SAT AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN.
DAYS 4 THROUGH 7 (SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)...
MODELS COME INTO BRIEF AGREEMENT AGAIN ON MON WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE CWA. SFC HIGH PRESSURE E AND LOW PRESSURE W RESULTS
IN WAA OVER THE AREA...WHICH WILL ALLOW HIGHS MON TO BE IN THE MID
30S. MODELS THEN DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH SOLUTIONS FROM MON NIGHT
THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MODELS SHOWS A COUPLE OF
TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH...THE FIRST SOMETIME BETWEEN MON NIGHT
THROUGH TUE NIGHT AND THE OTHER POSSIBLY MOVING INTO THE AREA
SOMETIME LATE WED. SIGNIFICANT RUN TO RUN ERRORS AND MODEL
DISAGREEMENT MAKE FOR LOW CONFIDENCE IN MODELS PAST MON. THE PERIOD
SHOULD GENERALLY BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH RESPECT TO TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1213 AM EST THU FEB 16 2012
PER SATELLITE IMAGERY...ONE SHORTWAVE LIFTING NE JUST NW OF LAKE
SUPERIOR IS BEING FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER MOVING INTO NRN MN. WITH
LATTER WAVE MOVING INTO THE UPPER LAKES THIS MORNING...MAY SEE A
LITTLE -SN...MAINLY AT KCMX/KSAW. PER UPSTREAM OBS...LOWER CIGS WILL
ARRIVE...MVFR AT KIWD AND PROBABLY IFR AT KCMX...ESPECIALLY ONCE
WINDS TAKE ON AN UPSLOPE WESTERLY COMPONENT. AT KSAW...LIGHT
SOUTHERLY UPSLOPE WINDS AHEAD OF APPROACHING WAVE WILL PROBABLY
BRING IFR CONDITIONS TO KSAW OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS AS OBS SHOW
EXPANDING FOG/STRATUS LIFTING N FROM VCNTY OF LAKE MI. ONCE WINDS
SHIFT WESTERLY WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
TO MVFR AT KSAW. MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE THE RULE AT ALL SITES FOR
THE BULK OF THE DAY...THOUGH CLOUDS MAY LIFT TO VFR LATER IN THE DAY
AT KIWD AND ESPECIALLY AT KSAW WHERE WINDS WILL BE DOWNSLOPING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 425 PM EST WED FEB 15 2012
WRLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THE 20 TO 30 KT RANGE THU
INTO THU NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.
OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY TRANQUIL THIS WEEK.
LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE BELOW 20 KNOTS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
948 AM MST THU FEB 16 2012
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND FRI...
ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS DROPPING INTO NORTHEASTERN PARTS
OF MT AS OF 16 UTC. THE 12 UTC RAOB DATA AND NOTABLE DRYING IN THE
MID- AND UPPER-LEVELS SHOWN ON MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY SUPPORTS A
90 TO 100 KT 300-HPA JET STREAK ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SHORT WAVE
OVER OUR AREA TODAY. SOME MODERATE Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE RESULTS IN
MODEL SIMULATIONS...BUT WE WILL RETAIN THE GOING DRY FORECAST OVER
THE PLAINS GIVEN DRY FORECAST SOUNDING PROFILES. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE THE MAIN CHALLENGE TODAY...ESPECIALLY AS THE MID-LEVELS WARM IN
SOUTH CENTRAL MT WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW PUSHING 850-HPA READINGS INTO
THE +1 TO +3 C RANGE. MANUAL MIX-DOWN FROM 800 HPA BASED ON 12 UTC
GFS AND RUC THERMAL PROFILES YIELDS HIGHS NEAR WHAT WE ARE ALREADY
ADVERTISING. ADMITTEDLY...WE COULD BE A BIT TOO WARM IN AREAS LIKE
BAKER AND MILES CITY WHERE MID-LEVELS COULD BE COOLER...BUT WE MAY
MAKE UP FOR THAT WITH THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW. SCHULTZ
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...WED...
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IN THE EARLY PART OF THE EXTENDED AS A SHORT
LIVED RIDGE MOVES THROUGH MONTANA ON SATURDAY...BRINGING A WARMUP
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 40S FOR MOST OF THE AREA. WESTERN ZONES
WILL SEE SOME MOIST DIFFLUENT FLOW BY THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON
SATURDAY AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY TO READILY
FORM.
BY SUNDAY MORNING A TROUGH IS WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE STATE WITH THE MODELS A BIT MORE CONVINCED THAT A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN MONTANA AND SOUTHEAST
ALBERTA DURING THE DAY. NORMALLY THIS IS A DRY SOLUTION BUT THERE
IS A SECOND PIECE OF ENERGY DIGGING INTO UTAH WHICH HAS A
SUBTROPICAL TAP SO THERE IS MOISTURE IN THE TROUGH AXIS OVER
SOUTHERN MONTANA AND NORTH CENTRAL WYOMING. THIS MOISTURE MAY BE
DEEP ENOUGH TO COMPENSATE FOR A LACK OF DYNAMICS TO ALLOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO HAVE PRETTY DECENT COVERAGE.
TROUGH AXIS MOVES LITTLE FOR MONDAY SO WITH MOISTURE ALREADY IN
THE REGION EXPECT ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH ONE PARTICULAR
AREA TO WATCH FOR BETTER PRECIPITATION. A WAVE SPINNING UP IN THE
LEE OF THE WYOMING/COLORADO ROCKIES HELPS DEEPEN AN INVERTED
SURFACE TROUGH OVER EASTERN WYOMING AND SOUTHEAST MONTANA. THIS
COULD BECOME THE FOCUS FOR A BAND OF STEADY PRECIPITATION WITH
ENOUGH DYNAMIC COOLING TO BECOME AN AREA OF SNOWFALL. GFS IS
WEAKER WITH THIS FEATURE THAN THE ECMWF PARTICULARLY BECAUSE THE
GFS HAS THE TROUGH TAKING ON A MORE POSITIVELY TILT WHICH WEAKENS
THE DYNAMICS. GIVEN A PRETTY QUIET EXTENDED FORECAST THIS FEATURE
MAY BE THE MOST IMPORTANT WEATHER EVENT SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY CLOSELY.
TUESDAY AND BEYOND...MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH SURFACE
PATTERN SUPPORTING MIXING. THIS SHOULD KEEP OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING MUCH BELOW 20 AND THIS ALLOWS DAYTIME
TEMPS TO CONSISTENTLY REACH THE MID 40S. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CROSS
THE REGION AS DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH WITH THE MOUNTAINS SEEING
STEADY ACCUMULATING SNOW. BORSUM
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY...WITH ONLY INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SW WINDS OF 20 TO 25
KTS WITH GUSTS IN THE 30S WILL CONTINUE AT KLVM...WHILE KBIL AND
AREAS ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA WILL SEE 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS
BECOMING WNW THIS AFTERNOON. CHURCH
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 047 025/041 021/047 027/039 021/038 023/044 024/043
1/N 32/W 01/B 43/J 22/J 13/J 33/W
LVM 044 023/040 018/046 022/039 017/037 018/040 021/039
1/N 42/J 02/W 53/J 22/J 23/J 33/J
HDN 048 022/042 017/048 025/041 021/041 021/045 024/045
1/N 32/W 01/B 33/J 22/J 12/J 33/J
MLS 045 018/039 017/046 025/041 022/039 022/044 024/043
1/B 22/J 01/B 22/J 22/J 12/J 33/J
4BQ 044 021/038 017/045 025/040 021/039 021/043 023/042
1/N 12/J 11/U 13/J 32/J 12/J 33/J
BHK 042 017/036 014/045 022/041 019/038 019/041 024/039
1/B 12/J 11/U 12/J 22/J 12/J 33/J
SHR 044 020/038 014/046 022/040 018/038 018/041 022/040
1/B 32/J 11/U 34/J 32/J 12/J 34/J
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
1006 PM EST FRI FEB 17 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK LOW HAS INCREASED CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LIGHT MIXED
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE FOR CENTRAL NEW YORK. LAKE EFFECT
SNOW WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK AND THE
TUG HILL PLATEAU...LASTING THROUGH TONIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK LOW
WILL BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
10PM...BACKED OFF ON THE LE FOR THIS EVE AND OVRNGT. JUST TOO MANY
THINGS WRKG AGAINST IT...AND DO NOT SEE ANYTHING DVLPG ATTM. WILL
CONT WITH CHANCE POPS IN THE NORTH. OTRW...JUST SOME TEMP
ADJUSTMENTS WITH THIS UPDATE.
7PM...SHRT WV FIRING SNOW SHWRS OVER THE NRN CWA IS NOW PULLING
OUT. IN RESPONSE...SHWRS SEEM TO BE WEAKENING AND THE BACK EDGE
NOW MVG ON SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO. DFRNCS IN THE SHRT TERM MODELS
MAKE THIS A LOW CONFIDENCE FCST...BUT THE WRFARW IS SHOWING SOME
LE DVLPG BHD THE WV IN THE WEAK CAA. HRRR SHOWS LTL OR NOTHING.
HAVE ADJUSTED THE POPS FOR THE CRNT RADAR TREND AND WILL CONT TO
LOOK AT THE LE PSBLTY LTR THIS EVE.
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS BEGUN TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S INTO THE MID 40S,
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE SPRINKLES TO VERY LIGHT
SHOWERS. EXPECTING VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION FROM
THIS SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM WILL MAKE IT THROUGH MOST OF THE CWA BY
MIDNIGHT. BEHIND IT, LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
NORTHERN ZONES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOWLY WARMING OVER THE LAKE.
THIS SHOULD HELP TO LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO
UNDER 4 INCHES IN NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY, AND LESS IN OTHER
LOCATIONS. BY MORNING, THE SFC FLOW WILL TURN MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW, AND THE 700MB FLOW WILL BE MORE WESTERLY.
THIS WILL CAUSE THE LES TO WEAKEN AND MOVE MORE TO THE NORTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION TOMORROW MORNING. IT WILL WEAKEN AS IT DOES AND
BECOME AN OPEN TROUGH BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS LOW WILL BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION TOMORROW BE AROUND 18Z.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH TO HAVE RAIN IN MANY LOCATIONS,
ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS. HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY SEE SOME SNOW.
QPF AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH, WHICH WOULD
BE LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW IN LOCATIONS THAT DO ONLY SEE SNOW.
THIS LOW WILL MOVE OUT SATURDAY NIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
BACK IN BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL KEEP A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WELL TO THE SOUTH AND QUIET WEATHER OVER THE CWA.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
3 PM UPDATE...
MODELS SIMILAR. ACTIVE MILD PATTERN CONTINUES. LARGE SFC HIGH
PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT PUSHES
OFF TO THE EAST EARLY TUESDAY. WEAK COLD FRONT GOES THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH MIXED PRECIPITATION CHANGING TO SNOW. ECMWF
FASTER AND STRONGER BUT STILL NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR A LAKE RESPONSE.
THU TO FRI A LARGE SFC LOW TRACKS EAST JUST TO THE NORTH SO
PROBABLY SNOW TO RAIN THEN BACK TO SNOW. BEHIND THIS STORM NOT
PARTICULARLY COLD FOR MUCH OF A LAKE RESPONSE FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. AGAIN SHORT LIVED COLDER SPELL WITH A ZONAL FLOW AND
ABOVE NORMAL UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
QUICK HITTING -SN CONTINUING TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS
EVENING IN RESPONSE TO A PASSING MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE. BEHIND
WAVE...LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW CLEARING SKIES NOW WORKING INTO
WESTERN NY. BIGGEST FORECAST UNCERTAINTY WITH 00Z PACKAGE REMAINS
LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HRS. UPSTREAM
OBSERVATIONS GIVE NO INDICATIONS OF DEVELOPING LAKE EFFECT
ACTIVITY OFF OF LAKE HURON OR GEORGIAN BAY...AND HAVE DECIDED TO
BACK OFF LAKE EFFECT RESTRICTIONS AT SYR/RME FOR NOW. ELSEWHERE
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH ROUGHLY 15-18Z AFTER
WHICH...CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE ONCE AGAIN AS NEXT
DISTURBANCE BEGINS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.
.OUTLOOK...
SAT NGT...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS FROM -SN.
SUN/MON/TUE...MAINLY VFR WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS AT ITH FROM
LAKE INDUCED CLOUDS FROM CAYUGA LAKE.
TUE NGT/WED...MVFR IN MIXED PRECIP.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SLI
NEAR TERM...DGM/SLI
SHORT TERM...SLI
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...CMG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
717 PM EST FRI FEB 17 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK LOW HAS INCREASED CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LIGHT MIXED
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE FOR CENTRAL NEW YORK. LAKE EFFECT
SNOW WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK AND THE
TUG HILL PLATEAU...LASTING THROUGH TONIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK LOW
WILL BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
7PM...SHRT WV FIRING SNOW SHWRS OVER THE NRN CWA IS NOW PULLING
OUT. IN RESPONSE...SHWRS SEEM TO BE WEAKENING AND THE BACK EDGE
NOW MVG ON SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO. DFRNCS IN THE SHRT TERM MODELS
MAKE THIS A LOW CONFIDENCE FCST...BUT THE WRFARW IS SHOWING SOME
LE DVLPG BHD THE WV IN THE WEAK CAA. HRRR SHOWS LTL OR NOTHING.
HAVE ADJUSTED THE POPS FOR THE CRNT RADAR TREND AND WILL CONT TO
LOOK AT THE LE PSBLTY LTR THIS EVE.
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS BEGUN TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S INTO THE MID 40S,
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE SPRINKLES TO VERY LIGHT
SHOWERS. EXPECTING VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION FROM
THIS SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM WILL MAKE IT THROUGH MOST OF THE CWA BY
MIDNIGHT. BEHIND IT, LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
NORTHERN ZONES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOWLY WARMING OVER THE LAKE.
THIS SHOULD HELP TO LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO
UNDER 4 INCHES IN NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY, AND LESS IN OTHER
LOCATIONS. BY MORNING, THE SFC FLOW WILL TURN MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW, AND THE 700MB FLOW WILL BE MORE WESTERLY.
THIS WILL CAUSE THE LES TO WEAKEN AND MOVE MORE TO THE NORTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION TOMORROW MORNING. IT WILL WEAKEN AS IT DOES AND
BECOME AN OPEN TROUGH BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS LOW WILL BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION TOMORROW BE AROUND 18Z.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH TO HAVE RAIN IN MANY LOCATIONS,
ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS. HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY SEE SOME SNOW.
QPF AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH, WHICH WOULD
BE LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW IN LOCATIONS THAT DO ONLY SEE SNOW.
THIS LOW WILL MOVE OUT SATURDAY NIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
BACK IN BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL KEEP A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WELL TO THE SOUTH AND QUIET WEATHER OVER THE CWA.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
3 PM UPDATE...
MODELS SIMILAR. ACTIVE MILD PATTERN CONTINUES. LARGE SFC HIGH
PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT PUSHES
OFF TO THE EAST EARLY TUESDAY. WEAK COLD FRONT GOES THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH MIXED PRECIPITATION CHANGING TO SNOW. ECMWF
FASTER AND STRONGER BUT STILL NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR A LAKE RESPONSE.
THU TO FRI A LARGE SFC LOW TRACKS EAST JUST TO THE NORTH SO
PROBABLY SNOW TO RAIN THEN BACK TO SNOW. BEHIND THIS STORM NOT
PARTICULARLY COLD FOR MUCH OF A LAKE RESPONSE FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. AGAIN SHORT LIVED COLDER SPELL WITH A ZONAL FLOW AND
ABOVE NORMAL UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
QUICK HITTING -SN CONTINUING TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS
EVENING IN RESPONSE TO A PASSING MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE. BEHIND
WAVE...LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW CLEARING SKIES NOW WORKING INTO
WESTERN NY. BIGGEST FORECAST UNCERTAINTY WITH 00Z PACKAGE REMAINS
LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HRS. UPSTREAM
OBSERVATIONS GIVE NO INDICATIONS OF DEVELOPING LAKE EFFECT
ACTIVITY OFF OF LAKE HURON OR GEORGIAN BAY...AND HAVE DECIDED TO
BACK OFF LAKE EFFECT RESTRICTIONS AT SYR/RME FOR NOW. ELSEWHERE
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH ROUGHLY 15-18Z AFTER
WHICH...CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE ONCE AGAIN AS NEXT
DISTURBANCE BEGINS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.
.OUTLOOK...
SAT NGT...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS FROM -SN.
SUN/MON/TUE...MAINLY VFR WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS AT ITH FROM
LAKE INDUCED CLOUDS FROM CAYUGA LAKE.
TUE NGT/WED...MVFR IN MIXED PRECIP.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SLI
NEAR TERM...DGM/SLI
SHORT TERM...SLI
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...CMG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
300 AM EST THU FEB 16 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST AND OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. A WEAK
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS SHIFTED OFFSHORE THIS MORNING...AND ONCE
CALM WINDS ARE NOW BEGINNING TO STIR OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH A DEAMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE LIFTING INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY IS ALREADY OVER EASTERN TN...EXTENDING SOUTH TO AN AREA
NON-SEVERE CONVECTION MOVING ALONG A SURFACE WARM FRONT NEAR THE
GULF COAST. THIS APPEARS TO BE 2 TO 3 HOURS FASTER THAN MOST HI-RES
WRF MODELS HAVE BEEN FORECASTING. OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE STILL
STRUGGLING TO HANDLE QPF NORTH OF THE CONVECTION ALONG THE GULF
COAST....IN MOST CASES OVER FORECASTING THE ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN
INCH OBSERVED OVER NORTHERN AL AND EASTERN TN AT 06Z. THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH INTO SC
AND EVEN COASTAL NC LATER TODAY...AND OPERATIONAL MODELS FOCUS AS
MUCH AS 0.5" TO 0.75" ALONG THE WARM FRONT NEAR THE SC/NC BORDER.
HOWEVER...THERE IS NO SUPPORT FOR THIS FROM HI-RES WRF RUNS...AND
RADAR TRENDS LEAN TOWARD LIGHTER AMOUNTS...WITH THE BULK OF PRECIP
EITHER LIFTING NORTH INTO VA OR REMAINING SUPPRESSED TO GA/SC. WHILE
PRECIP WILL BE LIGHT THIS MORNING...WE HAVE SPED UP POPS TO LIKELY
IN THE WEST BY 15Z AND CATEGORICAL NEARLY EVERYWHERE BY 18Z. WE
WILL KEEP QPF AROUND 0.30" OR LESS. CONCERNING POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDER...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE POOR OVER CENTRAL NC TODAY
AND THE NORTHWARD SURGE OF TRUE WARM SECTOR AIR WILL BE CONFINED TO
THE COAST IF EVEN THAT FAR NORTH. THUS WE WILL LEAVE THUNDER OUT OF
THE FORECAST.
TEMPS THIS MORNING RANGE FROM THE MID AND UPPER 40S SOUTH AND WEST
TO MID AND UPPER 30S IN THE EAST. HEATING TODAY WILL BE HINDERED BY
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP...MOSTLY IN THE WEST...BUT AIDED BY WARM
ADVECTION IN THE EAST. THUS HIGHS SHOULD VARY WIDELY FROM LOWER 50S
WEST TO LOWER 60S EAST.
TONIGHT...MODELS ARE QUICK TO DRY OUR THE MID LAYERS BY 00Z ALMOST
EVERYWHERE. THUS PRECIP SHOULD COME TO AN END DURING THE EVENING
HOURS. HOWEVER... LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS MUCH SLOWER TO SCOUR...SO IF
WINDS BECOME LIGHT ENOUGH...THERE COULD BE A SHORT PERIOD OF FOG
OVERNIGHT. STATISTICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS NO SIGNS OF FOG
POTENTIAL...BUT THE SREF DOES GIVE SOME HIGHER PROBABILITIES AFTER
06Z. MOST GUIDANCE LOOKS TOO WARM OVERNIGHT GIVEN THAT SKIES SHOULD
CLEAR AND WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY. THE CURRENT
FORECAST IS ALREADY BELOW MOST GUIDANCE...SO WILL LEAVE LOWS AT
27-44.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BRIEFLY ACROSS VA ON FRIDAY...BUT MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD QUICKLY SPREAD BACK OVERHEAD AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE GULF COAST. WILL KEEP HIGHS IN
LINE WITH 1000-850MB THICKNESS SCHEMES (1335-1340M)..WHICH YIELDS
LOWER 60S AREAWIDE. WITH THICKENING CLOUDS FRIDAY NIGHT...LOWS
SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S SOUTHWEST TO LOW TO MID 30S
NORTHEAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 215 PM WEDNESDAY...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN RAIN ON THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE IN AMOUNT.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT IN THE FORECAST OF THE CURRENT
MID-UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING OUT OF TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA.
CONVECTION HAS BEEN BLOSSOMING OVER SE TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
HAS BEEN HANDLED WELL THUS FAR BY THE 12Z GFS. ALL MODELS GENERALLY
SHOW THE MID-UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSING QUICKLY ENE TOWARD OUR REGION
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE AFOREMENTIONED 12Z/GFS HAS PICKED UP ON
THE CONVECTION FLARING UP ALREADY OVER SE TEXAS... AND HAS THIS
CONVECTION SPREADING ENE ACROSS MS/AL AND GA OVERNIGHT THROUGH
12Z/THU. FROM THERE... MODELS DIVERGE ON POP/QPF OVER NC THURSDAY.
THE LATEST GFS AND NOW THE LATEST EUROPEAN MODELS DEPICT ALMOST
DOUBLE THE QPF OR RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS MUCH OF OUR REGION THAN
THE 12Z/NAM WITH THE EVENT. YET... THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS IN
PARTICULAR THE SPC WRF AND THE HRRR DEPICT MINIMAL QPF OVER CENTRAL
NC. THIS LACK OF QPF MAY BE THE WAY TO GO GIVEN THE NCEP MODELS
TYPICAL FAILURE IN CAPTURING GULF COAST CONVECTION AND ITS ROLE IN
DISRUPTING MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE CAROLINAS UPSTREAM.
HOWEVER... THE LATEST EURO SUPPORTS HEAVIER QPF ACROSS CENTRAL NC
WITH THE CONVECTION FALLING APART AS IT SWEEPS ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH
LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. WITH THIS IN MIND... WE WILL KEEP CURRENT
CATEGORICAL POP IN PLACE... AND CONTINUE TO FORECAST RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF AROUND 0.25. IF CONVECTION DOES NOT SPREAD EAST ACROSS
GA... AND THE DEEP MOISTURE TRANSPORT (35-45KT SSW FLOW 925-850MB)
IN THE MODELS IS NOT DISRUPTED... THEN QPF OF UP TO A HALF INCH
WOULD BE LIKELY. HIGHS SHOULD SHOW QUITE A RANGE WITH SOME LIGHT
RAIN IN THE WEST EARLY... KEEPING HIGHS IN THE 50-55 RANGE. HIGHS
SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 60S AROUND FAY TO GSB.
THURSDAY NIGHT... SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST WITH THE TROUGH...
BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LAG PER THE LATEST MODELS. DEPENDING ON
IF THE GROUND GETS WET OR NOT... FOG WILL/WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE. IF
WE SQUEEZE OUT 0.10 OR SO... THEN FOG WILL BE LIKELY. OTHERWISE...
PARTLY CLOUDY WITH LOWS 35-40.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT:
A DEAMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE PROGRESSING EAST THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC
ON THU (AND ITS ATTENDANT SFC LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE CAROLINAS)
WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THU NIGHT. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES EVERYWHERE BY 12Z
FRI MORNING AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE W/NW.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC/CAROLINAS
FROM DURING THE DAY FRI...AND IS PROGGED TO BE CENTERED NEAR THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY 12Z SAT. UNIFORM/FLAT FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED
OVER THE CAROLINAS FRI THROUGH FRI NIGHT. WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND...
EXPECT SUNNY SKIES DURING THE DAY FRI. 1000-850 MB THICKNESSES ARE
PROGGED TO RANGE FROM 1335-1345 METERS N-S ON FRIDAY...SUGGESTING
HIGHS RANGING FROM 59-65F OR SO...WARMEST NEAR THE SC BORDER. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN DEVELOPING IN VICINITY OF THE
TX GULF COAST LATE FRI NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY CURRENTLY
PROGRESSING SOUTH THROUGH CA/NV AMPLIFIES INTO A CLOSED UPPER LOW
AND STARTS TRACKING EAST TOWARD WESTERN TX. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME
UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER COULD MOVE INTO THE CAROLINAS DOWNSTREAM OF
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED ALONG THE GULF COAST STATES LATE FRI NIGHT...
HOWEVER...THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT MOST OF THE
INCREASE IN MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER
SUNRISE SAT (WHEN PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO BLOSSOM OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH)...WITH MINIMAL IMPACT ON LOW TEMPS. WILL FCST LOWS RANGING
FROM THE LOWER/MID 30S TO UPPER 30S SAT MORNING...COLDEST IN THE
TYPICAL SHELTERED/LOW-LYING AREAS...PARTICULARLY IN EAST/NE PORTIONS
OF THE AREA.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT:
SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY PERSISTS W/REGARD TO THE EVOLUTION OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED STORM SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS FROM THE TX GULF COAST
THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH AND INTO THE CAROLINAS/MID-ATLANTIC THIS
WEEKEND. THE OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE HAVING A VERY DIFFICULT TIME
DETERMINING HOW MUCH (IF ANY) PHASING WILL OCCUR BETWEEN THE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING EASTWARD FROM TX INTO THE DEEP SOUTH
SAT/SAT NIGHT AND NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING SOUTHEAST
FROM WESTERN CANADA THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES INTO THE
TN/OH VALLEYS. EXACTLY HOW THE NORTHERN/SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
ENERGY INTERACTS WILL IN LARGE PART DETERMINE THE SUBSEQUENT
EVOLUTION OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER AND OFFSHORE THE CAROLINAS
THIS WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME...THE ECMWF IS STILL THE PREFERRED MODEL
OF CHOICE GIVEN ITS CONSISTENCY AND BETTER TRACK RECORD...ALTHOUGH
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY PERSISTS EVEN WITH THE ECMWF DUE TO THE
COMPLEX NATURE OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AND THAT SOME OF THE KEY
FEATURES WILL NOT BE SAMPLED WELL BY THE RAOB NETWORK UNTIL LATER
THIS WEEK. WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND...ASIDE FROM INTRODUCING PRECIP
CHANCES FROM SW-NE SATURDAY AFTERNOON (A BIT EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY
INDICATED)...WILL MAKE FEW CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY:
THERE IS REASONABLE AGREEMENT AMONG THE LONG TERM MODELS THAT DRY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE CAROLINAS IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEPARTING THE CAROLINA COAST SUN/SUN NIGHT...AND AT
THIS TIME EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS NEAR
NORMAL IN THE LOWER/MID 50S...WITH LOWS MON NIGHT IN THE LOWER 30S.
UNCERTAINTY GROWS AGAIN BY MID-WEEK IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED.
AT THIS TIME...WILL KEEP THE FCST DRY ON TUE WITH HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY SHIFTING OFFSHORE THE CAROLINAS. A WARM/MOIST SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP BY TUE NIGHT/WED AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OFFSHORE IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM PROGGED TO APPROACH THE
AREA BY MID-WEEK...AND WILL INTRODUCE A 30% CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON
WED. -VINCENT
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 100 AM THURSDAY...
CURRENT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL NC WILL DETERIORATE FROM WEST
TO EAST BY MIDDAY AS RAIN SPREADS EAST ACROSS THE AREA. THE
RAIN...AND ASSOCIATED LOW CEILINGS...APPEAR TO BE APPROACHING AS
MUCH AS 2 TO 3 HOURS FASTER THAN IN PREVIOUS FORECASTS. THERE
REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW HEAVY THE RAIN WILL BE EAST OF
THE MOUNTAINS...BUT THERE IS STILL GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT CEILINGS
WILL FALL TO IFR BY 15Z AT KGSO/KINT...AND BY 18Z TO 20Z AT
KRDU/KFAY/KRWI. WHERE RAIN IS HEAVIER...LIFR CEILINGS AND IFR VSBYS
WILL BE POSSIBLE. SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
BE VERY STRONG OR GUSTY...BUT IF ANY GUSTS DO DEVELOP IT WOULD BE
MORE LIKELY AT KFAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO EASTERN. WINDS WILL
THEN TURN TO WEST-NORTHWESTERLY AFTER 00Z AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO
THE AREA AND SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR. SOME FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE AFTER
06Z FRIDAY.
OUTLOOK...
THE FOG IS EXPECTED TO LIFT EARLY FRIDAY...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS RETURNING BY 15Z FRIDAY MORNING. THERE IS AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH IFR CIGS/VSBYS AS ANOTHER SYSTEM
APPROACHES OUR REGION THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...BADGETT
LONG TERM...VINCENT
AVIATION...KRR/SMITH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
100 AM EST THU FEB 16 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST AND OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. A WEAK
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 910 PM WEDNESDAY...
A DRY AIRMASS IS IN PLACE THIS EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL NC
AS A 1026 MB SURFACE HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER THE REGION.
THICKENING WAA MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD CANOPY ASSOCIATED WITH
A DAMPENING WAVE OVER MISSOURI HAS ALREADY ADVANCED EASTWARD
ACROSS WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE....AND WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST
OVERNIGHT AS THE WAVE REACHES THE OHIO VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES BY
THURSDAY MORNING. HOWEVER ANY MEASURABLE RAIN SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL
AFTER DAYBREAK AS THE ANTECEDENT DRY LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS(CHARACTERIZED
BY SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 25 TO 35F RANGE)WILL UNDERGO ONLY SLIGHT
MODERATION AS SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE LATE.
BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS TRENDS...RADIATIONAL
COOLING HAS ALREADY CEASED ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT...WITH
ANOTHER 2 TO 3 HOURS OF COOLING IN THE EAST BEFORE IT IS MET WITH
THE SAME FATE. FORECAST MINS TONIGHT LOOK A GOOD 4 TO 7 DEGREES TOO
COOL IN THE WEST...2 TO 4 DEGREES TOO WARM ACROSS CENTRAL AREAS.
NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN COUNTIES COULD STILL POTENTIALLY REACH
PROJECTED LOWS OF UPPER 30S IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOUR.
OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM NEAR 50 WEST TO UPPER 30S NORTHEAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 215 PM WEDNESDAY...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN RAIN ON THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE IN AMOUNT.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT IN THE FORECAST OF THE CURRENT
MID-UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING OUT OF TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA.
CONVECTION HAS BEEN BLOSSOMING OVER SE TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
HAS BEEN HANDLED WELL THUS FAR BY THE 12Z GFS. ALL MODELS GENERALLY
SHOW THE MID-UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSING QUICKLY ENE TOWARD OUR REGION
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE AFOREMENTIONED 12Z/GFS HAS PICKED UP ON
THE CONVECTION FLARING UP ALREADY OVER SE TEXAS... AND HAS THIS
CONVECTION SPREADING ENE ACROSS MS/AL AND GA OVERNIGHT THROUGH
12Z/THU. FROM THERE... MODELS DIVERGE ON POP/QPF OVER NC THURSDAY.
THE LATEST GFS AND NOW THE LATEST EUROPEAN MODELS DEPICT ALMOST
DOUBLE THE QPF OR RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS MUCH OF OUR REGION THAN
THE 12Z/NAM WITH THE EVENT. YET... THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS IN
PARTICULAR THE SPC WRF AND THE HRRR DEPICT MINIMAL QPF OVER CENTRAL
NC. THIS LACK OF QPF MAY BE THE WAY TO GO GIVEN THE NCEP MODELS
TYPICAL FAILURE IN CAPTURING GULF COAST CONVECTION AND ITS ROLE IN
DISRUPTING MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE CAROLINAS UPSTREAM.
HOWEVER... THE LATEST EURO SUPPORTS HEAVIER QPF ACROSS CENTRAL NC
WITH THE CONVECTION FALLING APART AS IT SWEEPS ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH
LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. WITH THIS IN MIND... WE WILL KEEP CURRENT
CATEGORICAL POP IN PLACE... AND CONTINUE TO FORECAST RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF AROUND 0.25. IF CONVECTION DOES NOT SPREAD EAST ACROSS
GA... AND THE DEEP MOISTURE TRANSPORT (35-45KT SSW FLOW 925-850MB)
IN THE MODELS IS NOT DISRUPTED... THEN QPF OF UP TO A HALF INCH
WOULD BE LIKELY. HIGHS SHOULD SHOW QUITE A RANGE WITH SOME LIGHT
RAIN IN THE WEST EARLY... KEEPING HIGHS IN THE 50-55 RANGE. HIGHS
SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 60S AROUND FAY TO GSB.
THURSDAY NIGHT... SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST WITH THE TROUGH...
BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LAG PER THE LATEST MODELS. DEPENDING ON
IF THE GROUND GETS WET OR NOT... FOG WILL/WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE. IF
WE SQUEEZE OUT 0.10 OR SO... THEN FOG WILL BE LIKELY. OTHERWISE...
PARTLY CLOUDY WITH LOWS 35-40.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT:
A DEAMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE PROGRESSING EAST THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC
ON THU (AND ITS ATTENDANT SFC LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE CAROLINAS)
WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THU NIGHT. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES EVERYWHERE BY 12Z
FRI MORNING AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE W/NW.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC/CAROLINAS
FROM DURING THE DAY FRI...AND IS PROGGED TO BE CENTERED NEAR THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY 12Z SAT. UNIFORM/FLAT FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED
OVER THE CAROLINAS FRI THROUGH FRI NIGHT. WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND...
EXPECT SUNNY SKIES DURING THE DAY FRI. 1000-850 MB THICKNESSES ARE
PROGGED TO RANGE FROM 1335-1345 METERS N-S ON FRIDAY...SUGGESTING
HIGHS RANGING FROM 59-65F OR SO...WARMEST NEAR THE SC BORDER. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN DEVELOPING IN VICINITY OF THE
TX GULF COAST LATE FRI NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY CURRENTLY
PROGRESSING SOUTH THROUGH CA/NV AMPLIFIES INTO A CLOSED UPPER LOW
AND STARTS TRACKING EAST TOWARD WESTERN TX. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME
UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER COULD MOVE INTO THE CAROLINAS DOWNSTREAM OF
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED ALONG THE GULF COAST STATES LATE FRI NIGHT...
HOWEVER...THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT MOST OF THE
INCREASE IN MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER
SUNRISE SAT (WHEN PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO BLOSSOM OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH)...WITH MINIMAL IMPACT ON LOW TEMPS. WILL FCST LOWS RANGING
FROM THE LOWER/MID 30S TO UPPER 30S SAT MORNING...COLDEST IN THE
TYPICAL SHELTERED/LOW-LYING AREAS...PARTICULARLY IN EAST/NE PORTIONS
OF THE AREA.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT:
SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY PERSISTS W/REGARD TO THE EVOLUTION OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED STORM SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS FROM THE TX GULF COAST
THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH AND INTO THE CAROLINAS/MID-ATLANTIC THIS
WEEKEND. THE OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE HAVING A VERY DIFFICULT TIME
DETERMINING HOW MUCH (IF ANY) PHASING WILL OCCUR BETWEEN THE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING EASTWARD FROM TX INTO THE DEEP SOUTH
SAT/SAT NIGHT AND NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING SOUTHEAST
FROM WESTERN CANADA THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES INTO THE
TN/OH VALLEYS. EXACTLY HOW THE NORTHERN/SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
ENERGY INTERACTS WILL IN LARGE PART DETERMINE THE SUBSEQUENT
EVOLUTION OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER AND OFFSHORE THE CAROLINAS
THIS WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME...THE ECMWF IS STILL THE PREFERRED MODEL
OF CHOICE GIVEN ITS CONSISTENCY AND BETTER TRACK RECORD...ALTHOUGH
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY PERSISTS EVEN WITH THE ECMWF DUE TO THE
COMPLEX NATURE OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AND THAT SOME OF THE KEY
FEATURES WILL NOT BE SAMPLED WELL BY THE RAOB NETWORK UNTIL LATER
THIS WEEK. WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND...ASIDE FROM INTRODUCING PRECIP
CHANCES FROM SW-NE SATURDAY AFTERNOON (A BIT EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY
INDICATED)...WILL MAKE FEW CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY:
THERE IS REASONABLE AGREEMENT AMONG THE LONG TERM MODELS THAT DRY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE CAROLINAS IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEPARTING THE CAROLINA COAST SUN/SUN NIGHT...AND AT
THIS TIME EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS NEAR
NORMAL IN THE LOWER/MID 50S...WITH LOWS MON NIGHT IN THE LOWER 30S.
UNCERTAINTY GROWS AGAIN BY MID-WEEK IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED.
AT THIS TIME...WILL KEEP THE FCST DRY ON TUE WITH HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY SHIFTING OFFSHORE THE CAROLINAS. A WARM/MOIST SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP BY TUE NIGHT/WED AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OFFSHORE IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM PROGGED TO APPROACH THE
AREA BY MID-WEEK...AND WILL INTRODUCE A 30% CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON
WED. -VINCENT
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 100 AM THURSDAY...
CURRENT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL NC WILL DETERIORATE FROM WEST
TO EAST BY MIDDAY AS RAIN SPREADS EAST ACROSS THE AREA. THE
RAIN...AND ASSOCIATED LOW CEILINGS...APPEAR TO BE APPROACHING AS
MUCH AS 2 TO 3 HOURS FASTER THAN IN PREVIOUS FORECASTS. THERE
REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW HEAVY THE RAIN WILL BE EAST OF
THE MOUNTAINS...BUT THERE IS STILL GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT CEILINGS
WILL FALL TO IFR BY 15Z AT KGSO/KINT...AND BY 18Z TO 20Z AT
KRDU/KFAY/KRWI. WHERE RAIN IS HEAVIER...LIFR CEILINGS AND IFR VSBYS
WILL BE POSSIBLE. SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
BE VERY STRONG OR GUSTY...BUT IF ANY GUSTS DO DEVELOP IT WOULD BE
MORE LIKELY AT KFAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO EASTERN. WINDS WILL
THEN TURN TO WEST-NORTHWESTERLY AFTER 00Z AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO
THE AREA AND SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR. SOME FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE AFTER
06Z FRIDAY.
OUTLOOK...
THE FOG IS EXPECTED TO LIFT EARLY FRIDAY...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS RETURNING BY 15Z FRIDAY MORNING. THERE IS AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH IFR CIGS/VSBYS AS ANOTHER SYSTEM
APPROACHES OUR REGION THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...BADGETT
LONG TERM...VINCENT
AVIATION...KRR/SMITH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
635 PM CST FRI FEB 17 2012
.DISCUSSION...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT. CURRENTLY AN AREA OF MVFR CLOUDINESS FROM JUST EAST
OF MINOT EAST AND SOUTH TO RUGBY AND HARVEY. OTHERWISE MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. ONLY CHANGES EARLY THIS EVENING WERE TO
POPULATE WITH THE LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND INTERPOLATE
THROUGH THE EVENING. KEPT THE MENTION OF PATCHY FOG LATE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...CURRENTLY AN AREA OF MVFR CLOUDINESS FROM JUST EAST
OF MINOT EAST AND SOUTH TO RUGBY AND HARVEY. THIS MVFR CLOUDINESS
MAY CLIP JAMESTOWN AS IT PROGRESSES EASTWARD TONIGHT. OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. LATE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...THERE WILL BE AN INCREASED PROBABILITY OF
PATCHY FOG WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH AT THIS TIME ABOUT THE
TIMING AND EXTEND OF ANY FOG. LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE INDICATES IFR
CEILINGS DEVELOPING IN THE WEST AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY
THEREAFTER. FOR NOW WILL STICK WITH A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG PRETTY
MUCH EVERYWHERE AND SEE IF THIS TREND CONTINUES..
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
TWH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
113 AM EST THU FEB 16 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN TO THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT AND THROUGH MID DAY THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD IN THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON
SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
ONE BAND OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE NORTHERN CWA OVER
THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. ANOTHER AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS
IS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHERN
KENTUCKY ON THE NOSE OF A LOW LEVEL JET. LATEST RUC SHOWS THIS
JET INTENSIFYING A BIT AS IT PIVOTS INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION
OF CWA BY 09Z. IT THEN WEAKENS AS IT MEANDERS NORTHEAST INTO
CENTRAL OHIO BY DAYBREAK. EXPECT SHOWERS TO BECOME STEADIER LATE
TONIGHT AS THE JET DEVELOPS AND MOVES ACROSS THE CWA...AND AS LOW
PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SHOWERS TAPERING OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY
FROM WEST TO EAST WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING.
ADJUSTED TONIGHT/S TEMPERATURES JUST SLIGHTLY BASED ON CURRENT
TRENDS. WILL SEE SOME RISE IN TEMPS DURING THE AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY AS CLOUDS START BREAKING UP. BUT WENT SLIGHTLY BELOW
GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD.
EXPECT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER UNTIL POSSIBLY LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. STAYED CLOSE TO MOS
CONSENSUS FOR LOWS BUT WENT SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR HIGHS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS DISAGREE FOR THE SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME.
BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF HAVE A SOUTHERN SYSTEM AND A NORTHERN
SYSTEM. THE ECMWF KEEPS THESE SYSTEMS SEPARATE WHILE THE GFS TRIES
TO PHASE THESE TWO FEATURES AND THEREFORE BRINGS PRECIPITATION INTO
THE AREA. WENT CLOSER TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION HOWEVER DID NOT WANT TO
TOTALLY DISCOUNT THE GFS AT THIS POINT IN TIME. DUE TO
THIS...LIMITED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO A CHANCE ON SATURDAY AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE SATURDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF SATURDAY
NIGHT.
DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE FA FOR
SUNDAY. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE AREA. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES DROPPED
TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE LOWER 20S. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO WARM DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY INTO THE 40S.
THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO BRING RAIN TO THE AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEARS THE FA.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
INITIAL WAVE OF SHRA IS PUSHING THRU THE TAFS ON AREA OF ISENTROPIC
LIFT. CIGS WITH THIS INITIAL SHOT ARE STILL VFR ALONG WITH MOST
OF THE VSBYS. THINK SOME OF THE SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE MVFR VSBYS
SO HAVE A TEMPO 4SM SHRA. THE WAVE PUSHES THRU THE SRN TAFS BY
08Z.
SCT LIGHT SHRA IS DEVELOPING OVER INDIANA AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
AREA. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL DROP TO MVFR AS LOW CROSSES THE TAFS
IN THE 11-15Z TIME FRAME. MVFR CIGS TO PERSIST IN LINGERING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT.
LOW CLOUDS WILL SCATTER OUT AROUND 21Z IN THE W. MODEL TIME
SERIES ARE SHOWING POSSIBLE STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AFT 03Z. INCLUDED
IFR ST ALONG WITH MVFR VSBYS.
OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...KURZ
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...SITES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
155 AM EST THU FEB 16 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH PENNSYLVANIA
WILL BRING WIDESPREAD LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION TODAY. THE
LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL START AS A WINTRY MIX IN SOME LOCATIONS
BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO RAIN BY THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN ON FRIDAY AND PROVIDE A DRY
START TO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS WARM ADV PCPN PUSHING EWD THRU THE UPPER OH
VLY AND APPROACHING NW PA AS OF 06Z. RUC SFC-850MB THERMAL
PROFILES INDICATE A MARGINALLY WARM +1-2C LAYER AT 925MB. P TYPES
COULD GO EITHER WAY DEPENDING ON PCPN RATES/WET BULB EFFECTS AND SUB-
FZG SFC TEMPS. THEREFORE WILL MENTION A MIXED BAG OF WINTRY PCPN
BEFORE SUNRISE MAINLY OVER THE N-CNTRL MTNS. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE FZRA ADVY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
A NRN STREAM TROF CROSSING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SHOULD GRADUALLY
PHASE WITH THE LEAD WAVE IN THE SRN STREAM AS THEY ENTER THE NERN
QUAD OF THE COUNTRY ON THURS...RESULTING IN A PAIR OF WEAK SFC
LOWS INVOF THE GREAT LKS SLOWLY DEEPENING AND CONSOLIDATING INTO
ONE PRIMARY LOW CENTER IN SERN CANADA BY THURS NGT.
MEANWHILE...HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING ACRS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION
SHOULD INDUCE A SECONDARY LOW NEAR THE CAROLINA COAST ALONG THE
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT TRAILING SWD FROM THE PRIMARY LOW. A SURGE OF
ABOVE NORMAL PWATS AND FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS
SYSTEM AND SUPPORT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACRS CENTRAL PA THIS
PERIOD.
THE MAIN CONCERN AND GREATEST UNCERTAINTY IN THE SHORT TERM FCST
INVOLVES TRANSITIONING P TYPES...AS RELATIVELY WARM AIR ALOFT
/ABOVE 0C AIR AT 850MB/ IS COOLED FROM THE TOP DOWN DUE TO WET-
BULB EFFECTS AND LLVL MESOSCALE COLD AIR DAMMING PROCESSES KEEP
SFC TEMPS NEAR THE FREEZING MARK. FCST MODEL SOUNDINGS AND PLUME
DIAGRAMS STILL INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A MIXED BAG OF WINTRY
PRECIP BEFORE GOING OVER TO MAINLY RAIN LATER THURS. DESPITE THE
P TYPE UNCERTAINTY...MARGINAL BLYR TEMPS AND TIME OF DAY WILL BE
LIMITING FACTORS FOR SNOW/ICE ACCUMULATIONS.
A SURGE OF COLDER AIR WILL INVADE THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FROPA LATER THURS NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI...WITH PLENTY OF POST-
FRONTAL LOW CLOUDS/STRATOCU AND OCNL LAKE EFFECT/UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS FOCUSED OVR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN ALLEGHENIES.
MAIN CHANGE FROM RECENT DAYS WILL BE THE AMT OF COLD AIR THAT
FOLLOWS THE MAIN SYSTEM LATE THU...WILL ADDITIONAL SYSTEMS
PULL IN A LOT OF COLD AIR AFTER THU...SEE SECTION BELOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WAVE EXITING TO THE EAST THU NIGHT WILL CHANGE LINGERING SHOWERS
OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE ENDING AS MEAN FLOW AGAIN BECOMES
ZONAL. COLDER AIR...SEASONAL AIR...FILTERS IN BEHIND FOR
FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES IN...WITH HIGHS ABOUT 10F LOWER THAN
THU - PUTTING THEM CLOSE TO NORMALS.
A RATHER FLAT...NRN STREAM SHORT WAVE SLIDES BY JUST TO THE NORTH
ON SATURDAY AND MAY TRIGGER A FEW RAIN OR WET SNOW SHOWERS OVR THE
NRN MTNS. THIS FEATURE WILL SHOULD PUSH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
SEWD ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH...ALLOWING A REINFORCING/SLIGHTLY
COLDER AIR MASS TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
LOTS OF DIVERGENCE IN MODEL SOLUTIONS ON SUNDAY...WITH GFS MOST
INTERESTINGLY PRODUCING THE MOST PHASING WITH NORTHERN STREAM
ALONG WITH A DEEPENING LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. OTHER
MODELS AREN/T AS AGGRESSIVE...SHUNTING THE LOW FURTHER SOUTH AND
EAST AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EDGES IN FROM THE NW. DID ADJUST
POPS UPWARD 10-20 PERCENT FOR SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY THOUGH...AND WILL
BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF ANY OTHER MODELS ADOPT THE GFS SOLUTION.
RIDGE DOES BECOME THE DOMINANT FEATURE MON INTO TUE WITH COOL
MORNING AND MODERATING MAXES...AS RETURN FLOW KICKS IN ON TUE.
ANOTHER SYSTEM PROGGED FOR WED WITH A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW AS TEMPS
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THIS
MORNING...SPREADING LOWERING CLOUDS ACROSS CENTRAL PA. LEADING
EDGE OF SPOTTY...LIGHT PRECIP JUST ENTERING WESTERN PA AT 06Z AND
SHOULD REACH MUCH OF CENTRAL PA BTWN 08Z-12Z. TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE
JUST COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A LIGHT WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE STATE WITH THIS FIRST BATCH OF PRECIP...WHILE -SHRA
MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTH. A DRY LAYER IN THE ATMOSPHERE BLW
3KM /AS EVIDENCED BY 00Z PIT SOUNDING/ WILL LIKELY KEEP CIGS/VSBYS
IN THE VFR RANGE THRU AT LEAST DAWN.
AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES...DETERIORATING CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. ANY EARLY AM WINTRY MIX OVR NORTHERN PA
SHOULD TURN TO -RA BY MIDDAY...BUT WIDESPREAD IFR CONDS APPEAR
LIKELY BY AFTN OVR THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN MTNS AS STEADIER RAIN
ARRIVES. MARGINALLY HIGHER CIGS/VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE SUSQ VALLEY INCLUDING IPT/MDT/LNS.
RAIN WILL TAPER OFF THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...RESIDUAL LOW LVL
MOISTURE AND A LGT WIND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AREAS OF FOG. A
DRIER WESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT...AS THE LOW PRES
SYS PASSES EAST OF PA. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO VFR CONDS EAST
OF THE MTNS. HOWEVER...UPSLOPING FLOW COULD PRODUCE LINGERING MVFR
CIGS AT BFD/JST.
OUTLOOK...
FRI...AM LOW CIGS POSS W MTNS.
SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
SUN...SNOW/LOW VSBYS POSSIBLE SOUTHERN PA.
MON...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MARTIN/STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...MARTIN/STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...FITZGERALD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
119 AM EST THU FEB 16 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH PENNSYLVANIA
WILL BRING WIDESPREAD LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION TODAY. THE
LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL START AS A WINTRY MIX IN SOME LOCATIONS
BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO RAIN BY THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN ON FRIDAY AND PROVIDE A DRY
START TO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS WARM ADV PCPN PUSHING EWD THRU THE UPPER OH
VLY AND APPROACHING NW PA AS OF 06Z. RUC SFC-850MB THERMAL
PROFILES INDICATE A MARGINALLY WARM +1-2C LAYER AT 925MB. P TYPES
COULD GO EITHER WAY DEPENDING ON PCPN RATES/WET BULB EFFECTS AND SUB-
FZG SFC TEMPS. THEREFORE WILL MENTION A MIXED BAG OF WINTRY PCPN
BEFORE SUNRISE MAINLY OVER THE N-CNTRL MTNS. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE FZRA ADVY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
A NRN STREAM TROF CROSSING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SHOULD GRADUALLY
PHASE WITH THE LEAD WAVE IN THE SRN STREAM AS THEY ENTER THE NERN
QUAD OF THE COUNTRY ON THURS...RESULTING IN A PAIR OF WEAK SFC
LOWS INVOF THE GREAT LKS SLOWLY DEEPENING AND CONSOLIDATING INTO
ONE PRIMARY LOW CENTER IN SERN CANADA BY THURS NGT.
MEANWHILE...HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING ACRS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION
SHOULD INDUCE A SECONDARY LOW NEAR THE CAROLINA COAST ALONG THE
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT TRAILING SWD FROM THE PRIMARY LOW. A SURGE OF
ABOVE NORMAL PWATS AND FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS
SYSTEM AND SUPPORT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACRS CENTRAL PA THIS
PERIOD.
THE MAIN CONCERN AND GREATEST UNCERTAINTY IN THE SHORT TERM FCST
INVOLVES TRANSITIONING P TYPES...AS RELATIVELY WARM AIR ALOFT
/ABOVE 0C AIR AT 850MB/ IS COOLED FROM THE TOP DOWN DUE TO WET-
BULB EFFECTS AND LLVL MESOSCALE COLD AIR DAMMING PROCESSES KEEP
SFC TEMPS NEAR THE FREEZING MARK. FCST MODEL SOUNDINGS AND PLUME
DIAGRAMS STILL INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A MIXED BAG OF WINTRY
PRECIP BEFORE GOING OVER TO MAINLY RAIN LATER THURS. DESPITE THE
P TYPE UNCERTAINTY...MARGINAL BLYR TEMPS AND TIME OF DAY WILL BE
LIMITING FACTORS FOR SNOW/ICE ACCUMULATIONS.
A SURGE OF COLDER AIR WILL INVADE THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FROPA LATER THURS NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI...WITH PLENTY OF POST-
FRONTAL LOW CLOUDS/STRATOCU AND OCNL LAKE EFFECT/UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS FOCUSED OVR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN ALLEGHENIES.
MAIN CHANGE FROM RECENT DAYS WILL BE THE AMT OF COLD AIR THAT
FOLLOWS THE MAIN SYSTEM LATE THU...WILL ADDITIONAL SYSTEMS
PULL IN A LOT OF COLD AIR AFTER THU...SEE SECTION BELOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WAVE EXITING TO THE EAST THU NIGHT WILL CHANGE LINGERING SHOWERS
OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE ENDING AS MEAN FLOW AGAIN BECOMES
ZONAL. COLDER AIR...SEASONAL AIR...FILTERS IN BEHIND FOR
FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES IN...WITH HIGHS ABOUT 10F LOWER THAN
THU - PUTTING THEM CLOSE TO NORMALS.
A RATHER FLAT...NRN STREAM SHORT WAVE SLIDES BY JUST TO THE NORTH
ON SATURDAY AND MAY TRIGGER A FEW RAIN OR WET SNOW SHOWERS OVR THE
NRN MTNS. THIS FEATURE WILL SHOULD PUSH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
SEWD ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH...ALLOWING A REINFORCING/SLIGHTLY
COLDER AIR MASS TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
LOTS OF DIVERGENCE IN MODEL SOLUTIONS ON SUNDAY...WITH GFS MOST
INTERESTINGLY PRODUCING THE MOST PHASING WITH NORTHERN STREAM
ALONG WITH A DEEPENING LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. OTHER
MODELS AREN/T AS AGGRESSIVE...SHUNTING THE LOW FURTHER SOUTH AND
EAST AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EDGES IN FROM THE NW. DID ADJUST
POPS UPWARD 10-20 PERCENT FOR SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY THOUGH...AND WILL
BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF ANY OTHER MODELS ADOPT THE GFS SOLUTION.
RIDGE DOES BECOME THE DOMINANT FEATURE MON INTO TUE WITH COOL
MORNING AND MODERATING MAXES...AS RETURN FLOW KICKS IN ON TUE.
ANOTHER SYSTEM PROGGED FOR WED WITH A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW AS TEMPS
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO FLOOD INTO THE REGION. ALL SITES
HAVE GONE VFR WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A BIT OF THIN FOG AT AOO. I
DON`T EXPECT THE FOG TO BECOME A BIG PROBLEM AS THE CLOUDS
CONTINUE TO LOWER AND THICKEN OVERNIGHT...SHUTTING OFF THE RAD
COOLING.
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE AGAIN THURS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM. MOST OF THE PCPN WILL MOVE IN AROUND OR SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE. TEMPS MAY BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME FREEZING
RAIN OR WET SNOW EARLY...BUT EXPECT THINGS TO WARM UP FAST AS A
COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION.
WILL HOLD ONTO THE NO SIG WX OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT THERE
REMAINS SOME SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS. NEW OPERATIONAL NAM TAKES
A STRONG LOW OUT JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION WHILE THE 18Z GFS MADE A
SNOW STORM SUNDAY. STAY TUNED.
OUTLOOK...
FRI-MON...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MARTIN/STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...MARTIN/STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...LA CORTE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS FORT WORTH TX
1124 PM CST WED FEB 15 2012
.AVIATION...
TOUGH AVIATION FORECAST TONIGHT REGARDING THE POTENTIAL MVFR/IFR
CIGS REACHING THE METROPLEX. CURRENT SATELLITE SHOWS THE CIGS
OVER OKLAHOMA CITY AND MOVING SOUTH. LATEST SHORT-TERM MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THIS SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION INTO THE
METRO BUT HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE TIMING A BIT. THE HRRR SEEMS TO
HAVE TROUBLE HANDLING THE DENSE FOG/VLIFR CIGS TO THE EAST AND
BRINGS THEM INTO ALL SITES BY MORNING DESPITE BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW. THE RUC/NAM DONT SUPPORT THIS SOLUTION AND THINK THAT IS
BEST. WILL PUSH THE ARRIVAL OF THE MVFR CIGS BACK AN HOUR IN THE
METROPLEX TO 12Z AND WILL CONTINUE TO ONLY MENTION SCT MVFR FOR
WACO AS CONFIDENCE OF THE CLOUD DECK REACHING THAT FAR SOUTH IS
NOT THAT HIGH. OTHERWISE...NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE ENTERED THE METRO
SITES AND ARENT THAT FAR BEHIND FOR WACO. WINDS WILL SLOWLY VEER
TO THE NE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
85/NH
&&
.UPDATE...
THE DENSE FOG CONTINUED TO PUSH WEST AND WENT AHEAD AND ADDED THE
EASTERN ROW OF COUNTIES TO THE ADVISORY. UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE
BEEN SENT.
85/NH
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 PM CST WED FEB 15 2012/
DRYLINE PUSHING THROUGH THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH
ONLY SMALL CHANCE OF PRECIP EAST OF THE DRYLINE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. DRYLINE WILL LOSE ITS EASTWARD PUNCH THIS
EVENING AND WILL BE OVERTAKEN TONIGHT BY A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY
LOCATED OVER NW OK/TX. AN AREA OF WRAPAROUND CLOUDS OVER THE TX/OK
PANHANDLES WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD BUT WILL SCATTER OUT AS THEY
MOVE INTO NORTH TEXAS.
WATER VAPOR SHOWS OUR NEXT SYSTEM OVER CA. STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT
IN THE MODELS OVER THE EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM BUT
IT DOES APPEAR THAT WE WILL START TO SEE SOME LIFT AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION OVERRIDES
A FAIRLY COOL AIRMASS AT THE SURFACE. INSTABILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM
LOOKS TO BE MINIMAL THOUGH SOME THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
SOUTHERN ZONES.
UPPER TROF OPENS UP AND PUSHES ACROSS NORTH TEXAS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON EFFECTIVELY ENDING OUR RAIN CHANCES. WITH CLOUDS HANGING AROUND
THROUGH THE DAY THOUGH...IT DOES LOOK TO BE A COOL DAY ACROSS THE
AREA.
UPPER AIR PATTERN REMAINS QUITE PROGRESSIVE AND NEXT SYSTEM WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES ON TUESDAY. WILL AGAIN SEE A
CHANCE OF RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT TIMING STILL AN UNCERTAINTY SO
WILL BROAD BUSH WILL LOW POPS FOR NOW. 99
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 41 62 42 59 42 / 0 0 10 20 40
WACO, TX 43 63 44 58 47 / 0 0 10 30 50
PARIS, TX 44 61 40 61 41 / 0 0 10 10 40
DENTON, TX 42 60 40 58 40 / 0 0 10 20 40
MCKINNEY, TX 42 63 41 58 41 / 0 0 10 20 40
DALLAS, TX 41 63 42 60 42 / 0 0 10 20 50
TERRELL, TX 42 63 42 59 40 / 0 0 10 20 50
CORSICANA, TX 44 65 43 61 47 / 0 0 10 20 50
TEMPLE, TX 45 66 45 60 47 / 0 0 10 30 50
MINERAL WELLS, TX 39 58 40 58 41 / 0 0 10 20 40
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST THURSDAY FOR TXZ094-095-106-
107-122-123-135-148-162.
&&
$$
85/85
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TALLAHASSEE FL
1245 AM EST Sat Feb 18 2012
.Update (Rest of Tonight)...
02Z water vapor and H4 RUC analysis shows a strong upper level
disturbance crossing the southern plains with a deep feed of
mid/upper level moisture streaming northward of it over the Gulf of
Mexico. This shortwave will move eastward and provide the energy for
a potential severe weather event later Saturday and into Saturday
night. More about this potential event with the early morning AFD.
For the remainder of tonight, the weather will remain generally
quiet. Have removed PoPs from the forecast in agreement with the
guidance consensus, with the exception of a slight chance for showers
returning to the Panhandle Coast after 4-5AM. Otherwise look for
mostly cloudy conditions and temperatures in the middle 50s to lower
60s. Have a good night.
&&
.AVIATION (Through 06Z Sunday)...
VFR/MVFR conditions continue overnight north and west of a line from
KPFN to KHOE. Locations south and east of this line are in close
proximity to a stalled cold front and low cloud ceilings are hanging
in. Most computer model guidance shows these terminals going down
even further to LIFR with reduced visibilities. This seems to not
fit the current situation very well and thus we have decided to go
against that line of thinking. Later today the afore mentioned
stalled cold front will wave back north bringing a dose of rain to
all terminals in the area. A squall line is expected to approach
after midnight Saturday. Ahead of this squall line, low level wind
shear conditions can be expected.
&&
.MARINE...
This will be a bad weekend for boating with a strong cold front
moving through the area. Southerly winds and seas will increase
substantially on Saturday ahead of the front along with the threat
of strong to severe storms lasting into Saturday night. Behind the
front, strong westerly winds may gust to gale force with seas
exceeding 10 feet offshore. High surf and dangerous rip currents
are also expected along the panhandle beaches. Conditions should
gradually improve by early next week.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
No fire weather concerns are expected through the period.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 57 70 64 72 40 / 10 60 90 40 0
Panama City 58 69 64 67 41 / 20 90 90 10 0
Dothan 55 68 61 63 37 / 10 100 100 10 0
Albany 52 68 61 69 36 / 10 90 100 30 0
Valdosta 55 72 64 72 39 / 10 70 80 60 0
Cross City 57 75 64 72 39 / 10 40 60 60 0
Apalachicola 59 68 65 70 41 / 20 70 80 20 0
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
GA...None.
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
1223 AM EST SAT FEB 18 2012
.AVIATION... / 06Z TAFS /
WEAK CDFNT...ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING INTO
CENTRAL MI...WILL TRANSLATE THROUGH THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS
MORNING ALLOWING WINDS TO VEER MORE WESTERLY WITH TIME. LOW LVL
MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...SO EXPECT NOTHING
MORE THAN A FEW SPRINKLES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AT FWA.
DEEPENING SFC LOW TRACKING INTO SERN ONTARIO THIS MORNING WILL
FORCE A SECONDARY SFC TROUGH THROUGH THE FA BTW 13-15Z THIS
MORNING. WINDS WILL VEER MORE NORTHERLY IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT
WITH LAKE CLOUDS DEVELOPING IN RESPONSE TO 850 DELTA T/S
INCREASING TO NEAR 13C. LATEST BUFR SOUNDINGS GENERALLY SUPPORT
LOW END VFR CEILINGS BTW 3-4 KFT. A FEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW
FLURRIES/SHOWERS AT SBN SHOULDN`T HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON VIS.
FURTHER VEERING...DRYING...AND INCREASING LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE
WILL SUPPORT SCATTERING OF ANY LAKE CLOUDS BY LATE AFTERNOON OR
EVENING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 705 PM EST FRI FEB 17 2012/
SHORT TERM...
AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF APPROACHING CLIPPER SYSTEM WAS
GENERATING AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW JUST TO OUR NORTH THIS AFTERNOON.
REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC COUPLED WITH HIGH RES GUIDANCE SUGGEST THIS
WILL REMAIN JUST NORTH OF FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...AS SURFACE LOW DROPS SOUTH AND EAST LIGHT PCPN WILL AGAIN
BE POSSIBLE AND HRRR SHOWS THIS AFTER ABOUT 01Z. WILL MAINTAIN A LOW
CHANCE POP FOR THIS LIGHT PRECIPITATION POSSIBILITY ACROSS THE FAR
NORTH AS MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM REMAINS LIMITED. AS LOW
PASSES AND COLD AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN LOW
AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE WITH AID OF LAKE MICHIGAN. DELTA T VALUES
INCREASE TO LOWER TEENS WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO HELP IN LAKE CLOUD
GENERATION AND SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTH. ANY ACCUMS
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND WILL DEPEND ON DEPTH OF MOISTURE COLUMN.
HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES IN ON SATURDAY WITH CLEARING SKIES IN
AFTERNOON AS FLOW VEERS. INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS POSSIBLE SATURDAY
NIGHT AS SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS DEEPENS AND SPREADS HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE NORTH. PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF
FORECAST AREA.
LONG TERM...
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... PLEASANT WEATHER PATTERN TO
BEGIN THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION ON SUNDAY THEN DRIFTING SE INTO OH VALLEY ON
MONDAY. AFTER SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL SEE A WARMUP
TO BEGIN NEXT WEEK AS MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS EASTWARD INTO THE
AREA IN RESPONSE TO STRONG JET DYNAMICS COMING ONSHORE IN PACIFIC
NW WHICH WILL REINFORCE TROUGH OVER FOUR CORNERS. MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS OFFERING VARIED SOLNS IN HANDLING ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF
TROUGH...BUT ALL INDICATIONS POINT TO PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. ONE COMMON THEME AND AN AREA OF
HIGHER CONFIDENCE AMONG THE MODELS IS THE PHASING OF NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAMS AND SUBSEQUENT BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH CARVED OUT
FROM THE PLAINS TO GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY-FRIDAY TIMEFRAME.
WHILE TIMING AND DETAILS OF RESULTING SENSIBLE WEATHER REMAIN
UNCERTAIN...PATTERN SUGGESTS KEEPING POPS IN FCST TUE-THU AND
ABSENCE OF ANY SIGNS OF SFC RIDGING BUILDING IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM
FAVORS CONTINUED CYCLONIC FLOW AND SMALL CHANCE POPS FRI AS WELL.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 AM EST SUNDAY
FOR LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...LASHLEY
LONG TERM...LOGSDON
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
1126 PM CST FRI FEB 17 2012
...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
LATEST WV IMAGERY WITH H500 RUC ANALYSIS SHOWED CONFLUENT UPPER
LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY ONCE AGAIN...WITH
ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE MT/ND BORDER. A STRIP OF
POSITIVE VORTICITY ORIENTED EAST/WEST FROM CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
THROUGH CENTRAL WISCONSIN IS A RESULT OF SPEED SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH
THE ZONAL FLOW TO THE SOUTH...AND NORTHERLY FLOW TO THE NORTH. THIS
FEATURE WILL REMAIN FAIRLY TRANSIENT...SO WITH LITTLE PVA...IT
SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON THE SURFACE. IN ADDITION...SUBSIDENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEFT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET AND
THE ANTICYCLONIC CURVATURE OF THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL CAUSE A
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO CENTRAL IOWA AS SHOWN IN THE 6HR
SURFACE ISALLOBARIC MAP.
THIS SURFACE HIGH WILL REDUCE WINDS OVERNIGHT...WHICH COULD ALLOW
TEMPS TO FALL OFF. HOWEVER...CELLULAR STRATUS DECK SPREADING ACROSS
ALL OF MINNESOTA COULD LIMIT THE RADIATIONAL COOLING IF IT HOLDS
TOGETHER AFTER SUNSET AND MOVES INTO NORTHERN IOWA. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND TIME/HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS SHOW THIN LAYER OF HIGH RH
IN THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER. ANTICIPATING THIS TO
TAKE SHAPE AS MORE OF A SCATTERED VS BROKEN DECK OF CLOUDS...SO HAVE
KEPT LOW TEMPS IN THE TEENS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CWA...WITH
WARMER TEMPS IN THE SOUTHEAST.
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL LONG TERM FORECAST WITH TIMING AND
PLACEMENT DETAILS OF ATMOSPHERIC FEATURES REMAINING CONSISTENT THE
PAST FEW DAYS. TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL BE NEAR TO A LITTLE
ABOVE SEASONAL VALUES THOUGH SHOULD BE ABOVE GUIDANCE VALUES. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WELL ADVERTISED UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM IS STILL ON TRACK TO IMPACT THE STATE MONDAY THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY. PRECIPITATION TYPE DUE TO SOME UNCERTAINTY OF LOW
LEVEL TEMPERATURE PROFILE REMAINS THE PRIMARY CHALLENGE WITH THE
SYSTEM. THE PAST SEVERAL EVENTS IN ADDITION TO LOW LEVEL FORECAST
PROFILES SUGGEST THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAINLY RAIN FOR THE
SOUTHERN HALF TO TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE PRECIPITATION
TYPE BECOMES MUCH MORE PROBLEMATIC OVER NORTHERN IOWA. VERY WELL
COULD HAVE A TRANSITION ZONE TO ALL SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN FEW TIER
OF COUNTIES AND COULD RESULT IN MODERATE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS.
WILL ADD THE POTENTIAL TO THE HWO.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE STILL ON TRACK MID NEXT WEEK. PROFILES ARE A BIT
COLDER WITH THIS SYSTEM AND COULD RESULT IN A MORE WIDESPREAD LIGHT
SNOW EVENT. LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES AROUND TO END THE FORECAST
PERIOD HOWEVER ANYTHING THAT WOULD OCCUR WOULD BE QUITE LIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...18/06Z
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE ENTIRE FORECAST
PERIOD AS SURFACE RIDGING SLIDES INTO IOWA. THE SUBSIDENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH WILL KEEP THE AIRMASS RELATIVELY DRY
PRECLUDING MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUDINESS. NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AND BECOME SOUTHEAST LATE IN THE PERIOD AS
THE RIDGING SLIDES TO THE EAST.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BEITLICH
LONG TERM...DONAVON
AVIATION...COGIL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
343 AM CST SAT FEB 18 2012
.DISCUSSION...
SHORT RANGE FORECAST (TODAY AND SUNDAY)...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 08Z RUC UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT
THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH WHICH IS TRAVERSING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS IS LOCATED ROUGHLY OVER WEST CENTRAL TEXAS AND SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF IN A EASTERLY DIRECTION ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS.
THIS TROUGH HAS BROUGHT QUITE A BIT OF PRECIPITATION TO PORTIONS OF
EASTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA...BUT THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE TROUGH
HAS LEFT THE FORECAST AREA MOSTLY DRY. RADAR TRENDS HAVE INDICATED
THAT THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE DEFORMATION BAND ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TROUGH HAS BROUGHT SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO AREAS
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70...BUT PRECIPITATION HAS STEADILY DWINDLED
OVERNIGHT. 11 TO 3.8 MICRON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE STRATUS
SHIELD ENDS RIGHT ALONG INTERSTATE 70...MEANING AREAS NORTH OF I 70
HAVE CLEAR SKIES AND SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR. AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
70 WILL SEE DWINDLING CLOUD COVER AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES EASTWARD.
OVERNIGHT A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED INTO EASTERN
NEBRASKA...WHICH HAS ALLOWED A SURFACE COLD FRONT TO DRAPE ITSELF
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS...LIGHT COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES DOWN FOR SATURDAY...AS WELL AS FAIRLY SHALLOW MIXING TO
AROUND 900 MB. SHOULD THE CLOUDS ERODE QUICKER THAN EXPECTED
TEMPERATURES MAY GET A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN THE GOING FORECAST
OF MID 40S FOR SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY THE SURFACE RIDGE CLEARS OFF TO
THE EAST...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW TO COMMENCE ON
SUNDAY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY TO BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER
THAN SATURDAY AS THE COLDER AIR MASS GETS ERADICATED BY THE STIFF
SOUTHERLY WINDS.
MID RANGE AND EXTENDED FORECAST (MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
THE AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP THROUGH THE WEEKEND
IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING SURFACE TROUGH WHICH WILL COME OFF THE
HIGH PLAINS AND GLIDE E-NE ACROSS NEBRASKA. THIS SURFACE TROUGH IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A POTENT TROUGH WHICH IS PROGGED BY MID RANGE MODELS
TO DIG SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. WITH
AT LEAST 24 TO 36 HOURS OF STEADY WARM/MOIST AIR ADVECTION
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL BE QUITE A BIT WARMER THAN SEASONAL
NORMALS AS MID TO UPPER 50 DEGREE TEMPERATURES COULD BE IN STORE FOR
MONDAY. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS UPPER 50S TO POSSIBLY EVEN LOWER 60S FOR
MONDAY...BUT WILL ERR ON THE LOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE GIVEN THE
POSSIBILITY FOR LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND EVEN SOME PRECIP WORKING
INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY AS THE WARM/MOIST AIR IS ISENTROPICALLY
LIFTED. EXPECT PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE EARLY WEEK SYSTEM TO
BEGIN EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY AS THE MAIN
WAVE PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. GEM/GFS/ECMWF (NAM WAS DISREGARDED
DUE TO INITIALIZATION ERRORS) PROG THE SYSTEM TO BE PRETTY
PROGRESSIVE SO EXPECT THE PRECIP TO GENERALLY COME TO AN END BY
LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. DUE TO A LACK OF
DEEP MOISTURE AND THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE TROUGH THE QPF FOR
THIS EVENT SHOULD BE PRETTY MEAGER...ON THE ORDER OF AROUND A
TENTH TO POSSIBLY A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN. THERMAL PROFILES
SUGGEST THAT A MAJORITY OF THE EVENT WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN
FOR ALL AREAS...BUT WITH SOME COOLER AIR WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE
AREA ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH THERE COULD BE A BRIEF WINDOW
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WHERE A LIGHT MIXTURE OF RAIN/SNOW COULD
FALL...BUT THIS SCENARIO WOULD BE MORE LIKELY IN NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS.
THE REST OF THE WEEK LOOKS TO REMAIN MILD ACROSS NORTHEAST KANSAS
ONCE THE MONDAY TROUGH EXITS THE AREA. LONG RANGE MODELS
HINT AT A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. ONE OR TWO OF THESE WEAK TROUGHS COULD
BRING A POTENTIAL FOR INCREASING CLOUDS AND MAYBE EVEN SOME VERY
LIGHT PRECIP. WILL TRY TO NAIL DOWN SPECIFICS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD
AS IT APPROACHES.
JL
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. COLD FRONT HAS
USHERED IN NORTHERLY WINDS. MOST OF THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION
TONIGHT WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF TAF SITES. IMPROVING CEILINGS AND
NORTHEAST WINDS UNDER 12KTS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.
BLAIR
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
100 AM EST SAT FEB 18 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. A WEAK FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES SUNDAY WILL BRING SOME SNOW
TO THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
SOME TWEAKS TO SKY AND TEMPERATURES TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS
OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.
THE LATEST RUC MID-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
IN A ZONAL FLOW WITH A DRY SWATH OF AIR ADVECTING EAST OF THE AREA.
AT THE SURFACE, MSAS/OBS ANALYSIS INDICATE A 1022MB HIGH CENTERED
ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO AND EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD INTO WESTERN PA.
FURTHER UPSTREAM, A WEAK LOW IS CENTERED OVER LAKE MICHIGAN WITH
A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST OF THIS FEATURE INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION
BEING THE MID-LEVEL DECK ADVECTING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST AHEAD OF THE LOW.
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA THROUGH DAWN, WITH CLOUD COVERAGE
INCREASING THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR CALM
WINDS EARLY ON WILL BE OPTIMAL FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. THUS,
UNDERCUT LAMP GUIDANCE A FEW DEGREES WITH LOWS RANGING FROM LOWER
20S ACROSS THE EASTERN RIDGES TO THE MID 20S ALONG THE I-80
CORRIDOR TO THE UPPER 20S ELSEWHERE.
SATURDAY...A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL CROSS LAKE ERIE SATURDAY
AND SPREAD CLOUDS INTO THE AREA FROM W TO E. MUCH LIKE THE MID
CLOUDS TONIGHT...ANY PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CYCLONE SHALL STAY
N OF THE TURNPIKE. LOWERED POPS TO THE SCHC TO CHC CATEGORY AS MOST
OF THE FORCING SKIRTS ALONG THE PA/NY BORDER. TEMPERATURES ARE
CLOSE TO MOSGUIDE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
12Z MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO TRACK A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE
LOWER MS VALLEY TO THE CAROLINA COAST BY SUNDAY EVENING. GFS STILL
BRINGS HEAVIER SNOW FURTHER NORTH AND HAS FASTER TIMING THAN
ECMWF BUT MODELS ARE IS CLOSER AGREEMENT THAN IN PREVIOUS RUNS.
HAVE ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR TUCKER COUNTY WV FOR SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY EVENING FOR POTENTIAL SNOW ACCUMULATION AROUND 6
INCHES. IS STILL TOO EARLY FOR ADVISORIES...BUT PRESTON AND
GARRETT WOULD LIKELY REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA BASED ON CURRENT
THINKING. BELIEVE THAT NORTHERN EXTENT OF SNOW WILL CUT OFF
QUICKLY...WITH LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION NORTH OF THE PA/WV LINE.
SNOW WILL EXIT BY 06Z MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER
AIR QUICKLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. NORTH TO NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL
FLOW SHOULD NOT BE CONDUCIVE FOR ANY SCATTERED WRAP-AROUND
PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. EXPECT SUNNY CONDITIONS
FOR WASHINGTONS BIRTHDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE MID 30S
NORTH AND ALONG THE RIDGES TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE EAST OFF THE EAST COAST BY LATE TUESDAY.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS THEN SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH A BROAD TROUGH SETTING UP
OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY BY THURSDAY. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED
TO SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
AS INDIVIDUAL WAVES ROTATE THROUGH THIS SYSTEM...TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION WILL BE DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE AT THIS POINT. AFTER A
DRY START ON TUESDAY UNDER DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE...PLAN TO
FORECAST CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND INTO
SATURDAY. WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY
MAY BRING A FEW SNOW FLURRIES TO THE NORTHERN PORTS.
OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
IFR WEATHER POSSIBLE SUN ONTO SUN NIGHT ACROSS NRN WV AND WRN MD WITH
THE PASSING OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS WRN VA. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER
WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS PREDICTED.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR WVZ041.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
1130 PM EST FRI FEB 17 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 238 PM EST FRI FEB 17 2012
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EASTWARD THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN
TONIGHT PRODUCING SOME SNOWFALL. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
ARRIVE FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS FAIR WEATHER SYSTEM WILL KEEP THE
AREA DRY GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL
ARRIVE FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH SOME RAIN OR SNOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 238 PM EST FRI FEB 17 2012
RADAR SHOWS A DEVELOPING AREA OF SNOW FROM NEAR GRAND RAPIDS WEST
THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF LAKE MI. SOME INSTABILITY WAS PRESENT
MAINLY FROM 850 MB TO 700 MB. THE BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE IN THE
DGZ TRACKS FROM NEAR MUSKEGON TO HOLLAND AT 21Z TO CADILLAC AND MT
PLEASANT BY 03Z. DEEP DRYING ARRIVES IN MUSKEGON BY 03Z...WHICH
SHOULD SHUT DOWN THE HIGH RISK FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. THE
HRRR RUC DOES SHOW A SUDDEN DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW IN THE 23Z TO 01Z
TIMEFRAME JUST WEST OF HOLLAND AND SOUTH HAVEN WHICH TRACKS EAST
INTO SOUTHWEST LOWER MI...WHICH WOULD PROLONG THE RISK FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW BEYOND 03Z. COLDER SURFACES COULD SEE AN INCH
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WHERE ANY BAND PERSISTS. MUCH OF THAT
SNOW COULD FALL IN AN HOURS TIME EARLY THIS EVENING. WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW COULD LEAD TO A
RETURN OF SOME SNOW FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. AS A
RESULT I WILL KEEP THE HIGHER POPS GOING TONIGHT...MAINLY FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF SNOW GOING INTO
SATURDAY.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM EST FRI FEB 17 2012
(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
AS A STORM MOVES ALONG THE GULF COAST...HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOVER
OVER THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AFTER MONDAY A CLIPPER AND A
WAVE MOVING EAST FROM THE ROCKIES ARE PROGD TO PHASE NEAR THE GREAT
LAKES TUESDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE A PERIOD OF SNOW TUESDAY NORTH OF
I-96 AND GENERALLY RAIN SOUTH OF THERE. TWO MORE CLIPPERS...ONE ON
WEDNESDAY AND ANOTHER THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN PCPN FROM WED
INTO FRIDAY. THE WEDNESDAY CLIPPER WILL DRAW A BIT MORE WARM AIR
NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION WHICH WILL RESULT IN SOME MORE LIGHT RAIN
OVER THE SRN HALF OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY BEFORE IT MOVES THROUGH. AS
COLDER AIR FLOWS IN BEHIND IT...WE/LL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE AT SOME
LIGHT SNOW BY THE TIME THE THURSDAY NIGHT CLIPPER ARRIVES. FROM
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY....THE LIGHT PCPN THAT FALLS WILL BE IN THE
FORM OF SNOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM EST FRI FEB 17 2012
MAINLY VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED AT ALL THE TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT WITH SCT-BKN LOW CLOUD COVER AND SOME FLURRIES. WILL HAVE
TO MONITOR FOR PATCHY LIGHT FOG WHERE MORE EXTENSIVE CLEARING HAS
DEVELOPED. MVFR LOW CLOUD COVER SHOULD BECOME MORE PROMINENT TOWARD
DAYBREAK. LIFTING/IMPROVING CIGS AND VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. SKIES SHOULD GO CLEAR
BY LATE SAT AFTN/EVE.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 238 PM EST FRI FEB 17 2012
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ISSUED FOR INCREASING WINDS AND WAVES TONIGHT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST FRI FEB 17 2012
RELATIVELY QUIET WITH THE HYDRO SECTION FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.
NO SIGNIFICANT RUNOFF FORECASTED THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MJS
SHORT TERM...MJS
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...LAURENS
MARINE...MJS
HYDROLOGY...MJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
1253 AM EST SAT FEB 18 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK LOW HAS INCREASED CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LIGHT MIXED
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE FOR CENTRAL NEW YORK. LAKE EFFECT
SNOW WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK AND THE
TUG HILL PLATEAU...LASTING THROUGH TONIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK LOW
WILL BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
10PM...BACKED OFF ON THE LE FOR THIS EVE AND OVRNGT. JUST TOO MANY
THINGS WRKG AGAINST IT...AND DO NOT SEE ANYTHING DVLPG ATTM. WILL
CONT WITH CHANCE POPS IN THE NORTH. OTRW...JUST SOME TEMP
ADJUSTMENTS WITH THIS UPDATE.
7PM...SHRT WV FIRING SNOW SHWRS OVER THE NRN CWA IS NOW PULLING
OUT. IN RESPONSE...SHWRS SEEM TO BE WEAKENING AND THE BACK EDGE
NOW MVG ON SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO. DFRNCS IN THE SHRT TERM MODELS
MAKE THIS A LOW CONFIDENCE FCST...BUT THE WRFARW IS SHOWING SOME
LE DVLPG BHD THE WV IN THE WEAK CAA. HRRR SHOWS LTL OR NOTHING.
HAVE ADJUSTED THE POPS FOR THE CRNT RADAR TREND AND WILL CONT TO
LOOK AT THE LE PSBLTY LTR THIS EVE.
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS BEGUN TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S INTO THE MID 40S,
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE SPRINKLES TO VERY LIGHT
SHOWERS. EXPECTING VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION FROM
THIS SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM WILL MAKE IT THROUGH MOST OF THE CWA BY
MIDNIGHT. BEHIND IT, LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
NORTHERN ZONES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOWLY WARMING OVER THE LAKE.
THIS SHOULD HELP TO LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO
UNDER 4 INCHES IN NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY, AND LESS IN OTHER
LOCATIONS. BY MORNING, THE SFC FLOW WILL TURN MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW, AND THE 700MB FLOW WILL BE MORE WESTERLY.
THIS WILL CAUSE THE LES TO WEAKEN AND MOVE MORE TO THE NORTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION TOMORROW MORNING. IT WILL WEAKEN AS IT DOES AND
BECOME AN OPEN TROUGH BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS LOW WILL BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION TOMORROW BE AROUND 18Z.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH TO HAVE RAIN IN MANY LOCATIONS,
ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS. HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY SEE SOME SNOW.
QPF AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH, WHICH WOULD
BE LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW IN LOCATIONS THAT DO ONLY SEE SNOW.
THIS LOW WILL MOVE OUT SATURDAY NIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
BACK IN BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL KEEP A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WELL TO THE SOUTH AND QUIET WEATHER OVER THE CWA.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
3 PM UPDATE...
MODELS SIMILAR. ACTIVE MILD PATTERN CONTINUES. LARGE SFC HIGH
PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT PUSHES
OFF TO THE EAST EARLY TUESDAY. WEAK COLD FRONT GOES THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH MIXED PRECIPITATION CHANGING TO SNOW. ECMWF
FASTER AND STRONGER BUT STILL NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR A LAKE RESPONSE.
THU TO FRI A LARGE SFC LOW TRACKS EAST JUST TO THE NORTH SO
PROBABLY SNOW TO RAIN THEN BACK TO SNOW. BEHIND THIS STORM NOT
PARTICULARLY COLD FOR MUCH OF A LAKE RESPONSE FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. AGAIN SHORT LIVED COLDER SPELL WITH A ZONAL FLOW AND
ABOVE NORMAL UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR WILL PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVRNGT HRS...WITH MVFR
DVLPNG ACRS N CNTRL NY BY LATE MRNG OR EARLY AFTN...SPREADING SEWD
ACRS THE REMAINDER OF CNTRL NY AND NE PA BY LATE AFTN. S/WV AND
ASSCD SFC LOW WILL WORK INTO THE RGN TDA. POTNL FOR SOME WAA-
INDUCED -SHSN LATE THIS MRNG PROMARILY AT SYR/RME...WITH MVFR
WORKING SEWD THIS AFTN. AS THE CDFNT PUSHES THRU IN THE LATE
AFTN...PROFILES SUGGEST POTNL FOR SQUALLS...AND TRIED TO INDICATE
BEST POTNL FOR THE SQUALLS IN A 2-HR TEMPO GROUP. ACTIVITY TO
DIMINISH DURING THE EVNG HRS...ALTHO -SHSN WILL LIKELY PERSIST IN
THE NW TO NRLY FLOW S OF LAKE ONTARIO NGT...BEST CHCS AT ITH/BGM
AND PSBLY SYR. WINDS THIS MRNG GNRLY FROM THE W OR SW 5-10
KTS...BECMG SW TDA 10-20 KTS (ALTHO WEAK SE FLOW MAY OCCUR AT
RME)...THEN NW TO NRLY WINDS TNGT 10-15 KTS.
.OUTLOOK...
SUN/MON/TUE...MAINLY VFR WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS AT ITH FROM
LAKE INDUCED CLOUDS FROM CAYUGA LAKE.
TUE NGT/WED...MVFR IN MIXED PRECIP.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SLI
NEAR TERM...DGM/SLI
SHORT TERM...SLI
LONG TERM...TAC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
403 AM EST SAT FEB 18 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW WILL MOVE FROM LOWER MICHIGAN TO WESTERN NEW YORK STATE
TODAY AND DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT AND CONTINUE IN CONTROL OF
OUR WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A LOW WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST JUST NORTH OF LAKE ERIE THIS
MORNING. SOME PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE LOW. THIS PRECIPITATION
IS LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS AND IT SHOULD MAINLY IMPACT THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH DAYBREAK. IT IS MOVING QUICKLY SO WILL ONLY
MENTION IT IN THE SNOW BELT AREAS. HOWEVER THE 05Z HRRR MODEL RUN
HAS MORE PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING AROUND DAYBREAK OVER EXTREME
NORTHERN OHIO AND NORTHWEST PA. NOTHING GOING ON OVER NORTHERN
INDIANA. SOME MINOR LAKE EFFECT/LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON FOR THE SNOW BELT. THIS IS THE TOUGH
PART OF THE FORECAST. THE RIDGE WILL TRY TO BUILD IN AND THE LAKE
AND 850 MB TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE WILL BE NEAR 11 OR 12C BY
EVENING. THE GFS MODEL SEEMS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THIS BASED
ON THE MOISTURE. ATTM WILL KEEP THE POPS 50% BUT GO WITH SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS AND UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATION...FROM
ASHTABULA COUNTY EAST. ELSEWHERE A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE AS
WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT FOR MORE CLOUDS TO MOVE BACK IN LATER TODAY
AFTER THE LOW MOVES EAST. USED A BLEND OF THE MOS GUIDANCE AS
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL COOL DOWN BEHIND THE LOW...HOWEVER...WITH
SOME SUNSHINE THIS TIME OF YEAR THAT WILL HELP KEEP THE
TEMPERATURES MORE STEADY THEN FALLING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT
BEFORE DECREASING. ELSEWHERE SOME CLOUDS LINGERING SO WENT ON THE
WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE. THE LOW MOVING FROM THE GULF COAST STATES
ON SUNDAY TO THE EAST COAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WILL
ONLY IMPACT THE AREA WITH A NORTHEAST FLOW THAT WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND WILL CAUSE SOME CLOUDS BUT NO
PRECIPITATION.
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A WEAK TROF
THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY. THE GFS IS A LITTLE FASTER
AND STRONGER THAN THE ECMWF. AT THIS TIME WITH THE UNCERTAINTY DID
NOT CHANGE ANYTHING FROM THE CURRENT FORECAST AND CONTINUED CHANCE
OF RAIN SHOWERS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BEGINNING MIDWEEK IN THE LONG TERM MODELS BEGIN SOMEWHAT SIMILAR IN
OVERALL PATTERN WITH LOW PRESSURE/TROUGH FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES TO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WOULD SET UP SOME WAA OVER THE
AREA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE. OVERALL THINKING
WEDNESDAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY WITH BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON.
BEYOND WEDNESDAY...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES IN
HANDLING LOWS AS THEY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. GFS QUICKLY BUILDS IN
THE NEXT LOW LATER THURSDAY WHILE ECMWF LINGERS COLDER CYCLONIC FLOW
OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY THE GFS BRINGS NEXT LOW INTO
THE AREA WHILE ECMWF SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. GIVEN SUCH
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AND CHANGES IN SOLUTIONS MADE ONLY SMALL
DEVIATIONS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WHILE CONTINUING TO MENTION
LOWER CHC POPS THROUGH MOST PERIODS.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CLOUDS QUICKLY SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT
COLD FRONT. AIR MASS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY HARDLY ANY COLDER THAN
THE AIR MASS IN FRONT. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING WITH IT SOME
MOISTURE TO PRODUCE CLOUD COVER OVER THE FORECAST AREA THAT SHOULD
REMAIN VFR. EXCEPTION WILL BE IN ERIE WHERE LAKE ERIE WILL LIKELY
SUPPLY SOME MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SOME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE
MORNING. CEILINGS WILL DIP TO AROUND 1500 FEET AS WELL. MODELS
SUGGEST SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AROUND 5000 FEET THAT WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS SHIFT FROM SOUTH
SOUTHWEST TO MORE WESTERLY AFTER THE BOUNDARY PASSES. WE WILL
ALSO SEE AN INCREASE IN THE WINDS TOWARD MORNING WITH AVERAGE
WINDS AROUND 12 KNOTS EXPECTED.
OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY. NON-VFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN WILL PUSH EASTWARD JUST
NORTH OF THE LAKE TODAY. THE COLD FRONT WITH THE LOW WILL CROSS THE
LAKE THROUGH TODAY SHIFTING SW WINDS TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST LATE
WHILE INCREASING WINDS. WILL KEEP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN PLACE
THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT WITH THE WNW WINDS AND 4 TO 5 FOOT WAVES.
HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES MORE DOMINATE ACROSS THE LAKE ON SUNDAY. NORTH
WINDS ON THE LAKE DON/T APPEAR TO BE AS STRONG AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT
WITH LOW PRESSURE TRACKING TO FAR SOUTH OF THE LAKE KEEPING THE
TIGHTER GRADIENT TO THE SOUTH. WITH THAT CONFIDENCE A BIT LOWER ON
NEED FOR A SMALL CRAFT ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LAKE MONDAY
KEEPING CONDITIONS QUIET...THEN SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS TUESDAY AHEAD
OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE/COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE. THERE
IS A CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. WEAK RIDGING EXPECTED OVER THE LAKE WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE NEXT
SYSTEM APPROACHES.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY
FOR LEZ146>149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...ABE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
1051 AM EST SAT FEB 18 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION THIS MORNING. A CLIPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL USHER IN SEASONABLY COLD AND DRY WEATHER FROM
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY INTO THE
PRESIDENTS DAY HOLIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1035AM EST...SNOW SHOWERS HAVE MOVED A LITTLE FASTER THAN
PREVIOUS FORECAST. UPDATED FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT BASED ON 12Z NAM
AND LATEST HRRR. MODELS INDICATE FIRST BATCH OF SNOW WILL WEAKEN
THIS MORNING. LATER TODAY ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS
DEVELOP WITH VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE. SHORT WAVE HAS -38C AIR AT 500MB
ACCORDING TO RUC AND THIS WILL RESULT IN VERY STEEP AFTERNOON AND
EVENING LAPSE RATES FROM SURFACE TO 500MB. CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND
SQUALLS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON FROM MOHAWK VALLEY SOUTH AND
SHOULD BE SNOW IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH A MIX IN THE VALLEYS TO
START. TEMPERATURES SHOULD QUICKLY DROP WHERE PRECIPITATION FALLS
AND PRECIP TYPE WILL BE MOSTLY SNOW LATER TODAY ALL AREAS. COMMA
HEAD EXPECTED TO RESULT IN MORE STEADY LIGHT SNOW OVER ADIRONDACKS.
UPPED SNOWFALL SLIGHTLY IN ADIRONDACKS AND CATSKILLS BASED ON MODEL
QPF AND FIRST ROUND OF SNOW ON RADAR. ADJUSTED TEMPS DOWN QUICKER
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS TEMPS WILL DROP SUDDENLY WHEN PRECIP STARTS.
12Z NAM ALSO HAS HIGHER WINDS FORECAST OVER CATSKILLS LATER TODAY
AND THIS EVENING WITH STRONG MIXING POTENTIAL.
PREVIOUS....
DID SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUDS AND POPS BASED ON SATELLITE AND
RADAR TRENDS. LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE THIS MORNING THAN EARLIER
FORECAST INDICATED. BAND OF MOD-HEAVY SNOW MOVING THROUGH FINGER
LAKES PRODUCED 1 INCH IN 1 HOUR AT BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE FAST MOVING CLIPPER MOVES EAST OF THE REGION BEFORE
MIDNIGHT WITH THE SNOW SHOWERS/LIGHT SNOW QUICKLY ENDING. THE
TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY BE AN INCH OR LESS ACROSS
THE REGION WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE
BERKSHIRES...WRN DACKS...W-CNTRL MOHAWK VALLEY...ERN
CATSKILLS...AND THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY. COLD AIR ADVECTION OCCURS IN
THE WAKE OF THE CLIPPER WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN NORTH OF
LAKE HURON AND JAMES BAY. MEANWHILE...A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL STAY WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION...OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES AND SHIFTING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WITH THE SPLIT
UPPER LEVEL FLOW...NOT PHASING...AND THE NRN STREAM TROUGH STEERS
THE STORM OUT TO SEA. EXPECT THE SKIES TO GRADUALLY CLEAR SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH LOWS 20-25F IN THE VALLEYS...AND MID AND UPPER TEENS
OVER THE MTNS.
SUNDAY...THE LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES ANTICYCLONIC WITH ANY
LAKE EFFECT OVER CNTRL NY IN THE NW FLOW. THE RH PROFILES ARE VERY
DRY WITH PLENTY OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE FROM THE BROAD ANTICYCLONE TO
THE NORTH AND WEST. SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
STORM MOVING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES MAY REACH THE SOUTHERN
ZONES. HIGHS WILL TREND TOWARDS SEASONABLE READINGS WITH MID AND
UPPER 30S IN THE VALLEY /EXCEPT OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT/ WHERE SOME LOWER 40S WILL BE POSSIBLE...AND U20S TO M30S OVER
THE MTNS. THESE VALUES WERE CLOSER TO THE METMOS VALUES.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES WITH
THE SFC ANTICYCLONE RIDGING IN OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING IF THE WINDS
GO CALM. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER THE REGION LATE
MONDAY PM TO MONDAY NIGHT...WITH HEIGHTS AND H850 TEMPS ON THE
RISE FOR TUESDAY. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THE STRETCH...WITH
LOTS OF SUNSHINE FOR THE PRESIDENTS DAY HOLIDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST GROWS WITH TIME. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO THE LONGWAVE PATTERN...WITH A
STRENGTHENING RIDGE OFFSHORE THE WEST COAST AND TROUGHING ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CONUS. HOWEVER...THIS IS NOT TRANSLATING TO AGREEMENT
WITH THE PLACEMENT...MOVEMENT AND/OR STRENGTHEN OF SURFACE
FEATURES/SYSTEMS. THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER HAS
FAVORED THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THIS IS DUE TO
THE FACT THAT THE OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GFS...ECMWF AND UKMET ARE
ALL MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE WHICH IS SLOWER
MOVING SYSTEMS FROM THE MIDWEST EASTWARD MID WEEK ONWARD. AT THIS
TIME LOOKS LIKE UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WILL HAVE SOME WEAK SURFACE RIDGING AHEAD OF OUR NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION
TO MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE DAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE AT KALB WITH A RAIN/SNOW
MIX CHANGING TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING. A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW IS ALSO
EXPECTED AT KGFL EARLY THIS EVENING. DON`T HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
PLACE PRECIPITATION IN KPOU TAF. AT THIS TIME...ONLY EXPECTED MVFR
CONDITIONS...BUT CAN`T RULE OUT IFR VISIBILITY WITH SNOW. OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEFORE AND AFTER THE PRECIPITATION.
WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY AND MAINLY LIGHT SHIFTING MORE TO THE NORTH
WITH THIS EVENING IN THE WAKE OF THE CLIPPER`S COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
OUTLOOK...
SUN-TUE...VFR...NO SIG WX.
TUE NIGHT-WED...VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHRA/-SHSN.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SOME
HYDRO GAGES MAY SHOW ICE EFFECTS FROM THE MOHAWK VALLEY NORTHWARD
IN THE ALBANY HYDRO SERVICE AREA.
THE CLIPPER LOW WILL BRING LIGHT QPF OF ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN
INCH. SOME LOCATIONS WILL GET A FEW INCHES OF SNOWFALL. DRY
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY THROUGH MOST OF TUESDAY.
AS A REMINDER....THE WINTER SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. PLEASE
REFER TO ALBESFALY /FGUS71 KALY/ FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...SND
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
524 AM CST SAT FEB 18 2012
...UPDATE TO AVIATION...
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAY HAVE PERIODS OF
CIGS BUT EXPECT TO BE AOA 4000FT AGL. WINDS REMAIN NE UNTIL UPPER
TROF PASSES LATE IN THE TAF CYCLE AND SKIES CLEAR AS WINDS BECOME
SOUTHERLY. NO ADDED GROUP AT THIS TIME. 67
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 343 AM CST SAT FEB 18 2012/
SHORT RANGE FORECAST (TODAY AND SUNDAY)...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 08Z RUC UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT
THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH WHICH IS TRAVERSING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS IS LOCATED ROUGHLY OVER WEST CENTRAL TEXAS AND SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF IN A EASTERLY DIRECTION ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS.
THIS TROUGH HAS BROUGHT QUITE A BIT OF PRECIPITATION TO PORTIONS OF
EASTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA...BUT THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE TROUGH
HAS LEFT THE FORECAST AREA MOSTLY DRY. RADAR TRENDS HAVE INDICATED
THAT THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE DEFORMATION BAND ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TROUGH HAS BROUGHT SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO AREAS
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70...BUT PRECIPITATION HAS STEADILY DWINDLED
OVERNIGHT. 11 TO 3.8 MICRON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE STRATUS
SHIELD ENDS RIGHT ALONG INTERSTATE 70...MEANING AREAS NORTH OF I 70
HAVE CLEAR SKIES AND SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR. AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
70 WILL SEE DWINDLING CLOUD COVER AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES EASTWARD.
OVERNIGHT A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED INTO EASTERN
NEBRASKA...WHICH HAS ALLOWED A SURFACE COLD FRONT TO DRAPE ITSELF
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS...LIGHT COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES DOWN FOR SATURDAY...AS WELL AS FAIRLY SHALLOW MIXING TO
AROUND 900 MB. SHOULD THE CLOUDS ERODE QUICKER THAN EXPECTED
TEMPERATURES MAY GET A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN THE GOING FORECAST
OF MID 40S FOR SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY THE SURFACE RIDGE CLEARS OFF TO
THE EAST...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW TO COMMENCE ON
SUNDAY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY TO BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER
THAN SATURDAY AS THE COLDER AIR MASS GETS ERADICATED BY THE STIFF
SOUTHERLY WINDS.
MID RANGE AND EXTENDED FORECAST (MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
THE AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP THROUGH THE WEEKEND
IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING SURFACE TROUGH WHICH WILL COME OFF THE
HIGH PLAINS AND GLIDE E-NE ACROSS NEBRASKA. THIS SURFACE TROUGH IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A POTENT TROUGH WHICH IS PROGGED BY MID RANGE MODELS
TO DIG SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. WITH
AT LEAST 24 TO 36 HOURS OF STEADY WARM/MOIST AIR ADVECTION
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL BE QUITE A BIT WARMER THAN SEASONAL
NORMALS AS MID TO UPPER 50 DEGREE TEMPERATURES COULD BE IN STORE FOR
MONDAY. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS UPPER 50S TO POSSIBLY EVEN LOWER 60S FOR
MONDAY...BUT WILL ERR ON THE LOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE GIVEN THE
POSSIBILITY FOR LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND EVEN SOME PRECIP WORKING
INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY AS THE WARM/MOIST AIR IS ISENTROPICALLY
LIFTED. EXPECT PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE EARLY WEEK SYSTEM TO
BEGIN EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY AS THE MAIN
WAVE PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. GEM/GFS/ECMWF (NAM WAS DISREGARDED
DUE TO INITIALIZATION ERRORS) PROG THE SYSTEM TO BE PRETTY
PROGRESSIVE SO EXPECT THE PRECIP TO GENERALLY COME TO AN END BY
LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. DUE TO A LACK OF
DEEP MOISTURE AND THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE TROUGH THE QPF FOR
THIS EVENT SHOULD BE PRETTY MEAGER...ON THE ORDER OF AROUND A
TENTH TO POSSIBLY A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN. THERMAL PROFILES
SUGGEST THAT A MAJORITY OF THE EVENT WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN
FOR ALL AREAS...BUT WITH SOME COOLER AIR WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE
AREA ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH THERE COULD BE A BRIEF WINDOW
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WHERE A LIGHT MIXTURE OF RAIN/SNOW COULD
FALL...BUT THIS SCENARIO WOULD BE MORE LIKELY IN NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS.
THE REST OF THE WEEK LOOKS TO REMAIN MILD ACROSS NORTHEAST KANSAS
ONCE THE MONDAY TROUGH EXITS THE AREA. LONG RANGE MODELS
HINT AT A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. ONE OR TWO OF THESE WEAK TROUGHS COULD
BRING A POTENTIAL FOR INCREASING CLOUDS AND MAYBE EVEN SOME VERY
LIGHT PRECIP. WILL TRY TO NAIL DOWN SPECIFICS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD
AS IT APPROACHES.
JL
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
652 AM MST SAT FEB 18 2012
.UPDATE...
GOES LOW CLOUD BASE PRODUCTS AND OBS SUPPORT THICK CLOUD COVER
OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN PLAINS SO HAVE RAISED SKY GRIDS TO NEAR
100 PCT TO COVER THIS. ALSO COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND FRONT HAS
ALLOWED A FEW AREAS ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF PRECIP SHIELD
TO TURN OVER TO SNOW. HAVE TWEAKED WX GRIDS AND WILL HAVE ZONES
OUT SHORTLY.
GUYER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...314 AM MST SAT FEB 18 2012...
ANOTHER LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE MARGINAL WINTER SYSTEM ON THE WAY
FOR NEW MEXICO LATE SUNDAY THROUGH LATE MONDAY. BUT FIRST THE SCENARIO
DISCUSSED LAST NIGHT REGARDING DEVELOPING PRECIP OVER THE E PLAINS IS
UNDER WAY AS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A SURFACE COLD FRONT COMBINES
WITH UPPER LEVEL DEFORMATION BTWN A DEPARTING UPPER WAVE AND ANOTHER
WAVE SLIDING EAST ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. RAISED POPS OVER THE EAST
CENTRAL AND SE PLAINS PER LATEST RADAR TRENDS. RUC BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
ACROSS THAT REGION WITH SUPPORT FROM SFC DEWPOINTS SHOW SURFACE WET
BULB ZERO VALUES ABOVE FREEZING EXCEPT FOR AN HOUR OR TWO BEFORE
SUNRISE...THEREFORE CURRENT RAIN ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN RAIN
AND EVEN IF SNOW DEVELOPS IT WILL BE JUST A BRIEF MIX WITH NO ACCUMS.
PRECIP WITH THIS WAVE WILL EXIT THE AREA BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. MAX
TEMPS WILL BE MUCH COOLER FOR THE NE PLAINS TODAY AND RELATIVELY THE
SAME FOR THE SE. ELSEWHERE...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL
MAKE FOR A PLEASANT DAY. 500-300MB LAYER RH VALUES WILL INCREASE FROM
THE WEST AS AN UPPER WAVE TRANSLATES SE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.
LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO PUSH THE MAIN DYNAMICS WITH THIS STORM
FARTHER NORTH AND BACKS OFF ON THE AMOUNT OF RAIN/SNOW FOR NORTHERN
NM. THE GEM AND EURO ARE STILL THE MOST BULLISH SO LEFT THE LOW END
LIKELY/HIGH CHANCE POPS OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN MONDAY. THE
OTHER CHANGE WAS TO PASS A STRONGER 700-500MB JET CORE OF NE NM WITH
WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS MANY AREAS. OVERALL...IT APPEARS JUST A FEW
INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR NORTH WITH BLOWING SNOW
PERHAPS THE MAIN CONCERN. 700MB TEMPS ARE QUITE CHILLY WITH THIS
WAVE SO HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE 10 TO 15F BLW NORMAL AND WIND CHILL
VALUES QUITE COLD. ON A SIDE NOTE THE 00Z NAM WAS REALLY OFF THE
WALL ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THIS STORM COMPARED TO REMAINDER OF
THE MODEL SUITE.
BY TUESDAY THE GFS AND EURO WITH AGREEMENT FROM THE NORTH AMERICAN
ENSEMBLE SHOW A JET DIVING SOUTH THRU THE GREAT BASIN ALLOWING FOR
A CUT OFF LOW TO DEVELOP OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL KEEP NM
IN MODERATE COOL AND DRY NW FLOW THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A
FEW WEAK RIPPLES WITH THE NW FLOW COULD DELIVER SOME SNOW SHOWERS
TO THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE NORTHERN MTS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS. A BACK DOOR FRONT MAY SLIP INTO THE NE PLAINS WITH COOLER
TEMPS FOR THURSDAY/FRIDAY. OTHERWISE A MUCH QUIETER WEATHER PATTERN
IS EXPECTED.
GUYER
.AVIATION...
MOUNTAINS OCNLY OBSCD THROUGH 18Z. PRECIPITATION CONTINUES OVER
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO DUE TO CIRCULATION FROM UPPER LOW
CENTERED OVER TX BIG BEND REGION. THIS SHOULD EXIT TO THE EAST BY
18Z. OTHERWISE LIGHT PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE FRONT
STRETCHED FROM VCNTY SANTA ROSA TO GLENRIO AT 09Z WILL CONTINUE TO
SAG SOUTHWARD THROUGH 18Z WITH BRIEF NLY WIND GUSTS TO 30KT
POSSIBLE. AREAS OF MVFR TO LOCALIZED IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE FOUND
FROM THE EAST SLOPES CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN TO THE TEXAS
BORDER...WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR AFTER 20Z. IN THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS...LOCALIZED IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN BR/FZFG
SHOULD DISSIPATE BY LATE MORNING.
NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 22Z.
.FIRE WEATHER...
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE
THIS MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR THE TX BIG
BEND REGION EXITS TO THE EAST. IN ADDITION...A BAND OF PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE FRONT EXTENDING FROM NEAR SANTA ROSA TO
GLENRIO WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTH THIS MORNING. GUSTY NORTH WINDS
WILL ACCOMPANY THIS BOUNDARY BUT SHOULD NOT BE LONG LIVED.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD DIMINISH BY MIDDAY AS A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS.
VENTILATION TODAY WILL BE POOR OVER MUCH OF THE WEST AND FAR EASTERN
BORDER...BUT GOOD ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE OVERALL THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT SHOULD BE DRY BUT WITH GOOD TO EXCELLENT RH RECOVERIES.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO
NORTHERN AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO SUNDAY AND TO AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 40 SUNDAY NIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE NOW FORECAST TO BE
STRONGER SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE INCOMING TROUGH IS A LITTLE QUICKER
ALONG WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. VENTILATION SHOULD BE GOOD TO
EXCELLENT OVERALL. RH VALUES ARE NOW FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE MID
TO UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS...WHICH
COULD LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT OF AT LEAST SPOTTY CRITICAL CONDITIONS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE MONDAY WITH STRONG DRYING. LOCALIZED
CRITICAL CONDITIONS COULD REDEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON IN THE EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS. VENTILATION WILL REMAIN GOOD TO EXCELLENT EAST BUT
WILL RANGE FROM FAIR TO GOOD IN THE NORTHWEST.
THEREAFTER A CLOSED UPPER LOW IS NOW FORECAST TO DEVELOP TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF NEW MEXICO TUESDAY...BUT AT THIS TIME APPEARS TO HAVE
LITTLE IMPACT ON THE FORECAST AREA. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL SWEEP
THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE STATE...BRINGING SOME TEMPERATURE
SWINGS AND POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR
MOST LOCALES TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS UPDATE...
FARMINGTON...................... 49 26 46 19 / 0 0 40 50
DULCE........................... 45 11 43 11 / 0 5 40 60
CUBA............................ 43 20 45 22 / 0 0 20 50
GALLUP.......................... 48 19 46 18 / 0 0 30 50
EL MORRO........................ 41 20 42 21 / 0 0 30 30
GRANTS.......................... 44 24 45 24 / 0 0 20 30
QUEMADO......................... 45 22 47 25 / 0 0 20 20
GLENWOOD........................ 55 22 59 23 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 40 18 39 18 / 0 5 50 60
LOS ALAMOS...................... 41 23 44 26 / 0 0 5 40
PECOS........................... 39 24 43 26 / 5 0 0 30
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 42 11 44 15 / 0 0 0 50
RED RIVER....................... 35 14 37 12 / 5 0 5 60
ANGEL FIRE...................... 37 15 41 16 / 5 0 5 50
TAOS............................ 42 16 44 21 / 0 0 0 40
MORA............................ 40 11 45 25 / 5 0 0 30
ESPANOLA........................ 50 22 52 21 / 0 0 0 40
SANTA FE........................ 42 29 45 27 / 0 0 0 40
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 46 25 49 23 / 0 0 0 30
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 49 32 52 28 / 0 0 0 10
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 51 32 55 29 / 0 0 0 5
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 52 28 56 30 / 0 0 0 5
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 53 30 56 28 / 0 0 0 5
LOS LUNAS....................... 52 23 57 27 / 0 0 0 5
RIO RANCHO...................... 50 29 53 27 / 0 0 0 5
SOCORRO......................... 56 29 62 32 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 46 27 49 25 / 0 0 5 20
TIJERAS......................... 50 28 53 28 / 0 0 0 10
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 43 25 48 26 / 0 0 0 5
CLINES CORNERS.................. 39 26 45 25 / 0 0 0 10
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 46 26 52 29 / 0 0 0 5
CARRIZOZO....................... 50 27 56 28 / 0 0 0 5
RUIDOSO......................... 44 28 50 29 / 5 0 0 5
CAPULIN......................... 37 23 51 27 / 5 0 0 10
RATON........................... 49 24 57 26 / 5 0 0 10
SPRINGER........................ 47 19 57 26 / 5 0 0 10
LAS VEGAS....................... 42 17 52 26 / 5 0 0 10
CLAYTON......................... 40 24 58 29 / 5 0 0 10
ROY............................. 42 22 56 30 / 5 0 0 10
CONCHAS......................... 47 27 62 34 / 5 0 0 10
SANTA ROSA...................... 48 24 60 32 / 5 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 46 28 63 35 / 10 0 0 5
CLOVIS.......................... 44 30 62 33 / 30 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 46 31 63 34 / 30 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 53 26 67 34 / 20 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 52 27 69 36 / 20 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 51 24 64 31 / 10 0 0 0
ELK............................. 48 26 58 31 / 5 0 0 5
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
GUYER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
314 AM MST SAT FEB 18 2012
.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE MARGINAL WINTER SYSTEM ON THE WAY
FOR NEW MEXICO LATE SUNDAY THROUGH LATE MONDAY. BUT FIRST THE SCENARIO
DISCUSSED LAST NIGHT REGARDING DEVELOPING PRECIP OVER THE E PLAINS IS
UNDER WAY AS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A SURFACE COLD FRONT COMBINES
WITH UPPER LEVEL DEFORMATION BTWN A DEPARTING UPPER WAVE AND ANOTHER
WAVE SLIDING EAST ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. RAISED POPS OVER THE EAST
CENTRAL AND SE PLAINS PER LATEST RADAR TRENDS. RUC BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
ACROSS THAT REGION WITH SUPPORT FROM SFC DEWPOINTS SHOW SURFACE WET
BULB ZERO VALUES ABOVE FREEZING EXCEPT FOR AN HOUR OR TWO BEFORE
SUNRISE...THEREFORE CURRENT RAIN ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN RAIN
AND EVEN IF SNOW DEVELOPS IT WILL BE JUST A BRIEF MIX WITH NO ACCUMS.
PRECIP WITH THIS WAVE WILL EXIT THE AREA BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. MAX
TEMPS WILL BE MUCH COOLER FOR THE NE PLAINS TODAY AND RELATIVELY THE
SAME FOR THE SE. ELSEWHERE...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL
MAKE FOR A PLEASANT DAY. 500-300MB LAYER RH VALUES WILL INCREASE FROM
THE WEST AS AN UPPER WAVE TRANSLATES SE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.
LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO PUSH THE MAIN DYNAMICS WITH THIS STORM
FARTHER NORTH AND BACKS OFF ON THE AMOUNT OF RAIN/SNOW FOR NORTHERN
NM. THE GEM AND EURO ARE STILL THE MOST BULLISH SO LEFT THE LOW END
LIKELY/HIGH CHANCE POPS OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN MONDAY. THE
OTHER CHANGE WAS TO PASS A STRONGER 700-500MB JET CORE OF NE NM WITH
WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS MANY AREAS. OVERALL...IT APPEARS JUST A FEW
INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR NORTH WITH BLOWING SNOW
PERHAPS THE MAIN CONCERN. 700MB TEMPS ARE QUITE CHILLY WITH THIS
WAVE SO HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE 10 TO 15F BLW NORMAL AND WIND CHILL
VALUES QUITE COLD. ON A SIDE NOTE THE 00Z NAM WAS REALLY OFF THE
WALL ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THIS STORM COMPARED TO REMAINDER OF
THE MODEL SUITE.
BY TUESDAY THE GFS AND EURO WITH AGREEMENT FROM THE NORTH AMERICAN
ENSEMBLE SHOW A JET DIVING SOUTH THRU THE GREAT BASIN ALLOWING FOR
A CUT OFF LOW TO DEVELOP OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL KEEP NM
IN MODERATE COOL AND DRY NW FLOW THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A
FEW WEAK RIPPLES WITH THE NW FLOW COULD DELIVER SOME SNOW SHOWERS
TO THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE NORTHERN MTS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS. A BACK DOOR FRONT MAY SLIP INTO THE NE PLAINS WITH COOLER
TEMPS FOR THURSDAY/FRIDAY. OTHERWISE A MUCH QUIETER WEATHER PATTERN
IS EXPECTED.
GUYER
&&
.AVIATION...
MOUNTAINS OCNLY OBSCD THROUGH 18Z. PRECIPITATION CONTINUES OVER
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO DUE TO CIRCULATION FROM UPPER LOW
CENTERED OVER TX BIG BEND REGION. THIS SHOULD EXIT TO THE EAST BY
18Z. OTHERWISE LIGHT PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE FRONT
STRETCHED FROM VCNTY SANTA ROSA TO GLENRIO AT 09Z WILL CONTINUE TO
SAG SOUTHWARD THROUGH 18Z WITH BRIEF NLY WIND GUSTS TO 30KT
POSSIBLE. AREAS OF MVFR TO LOCALIZED IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE FOUND
FROM THE EAST SLOPES CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN TO THE TEXAS
BORDER...WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR AFTER 20Z. IN THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS...LOCALIZED IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN BR/FZFG
SHOULD DISSIPATE BY LATE MORNING.
NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 22Z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE
THIS MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR THE TX BIG
BEND REGION EXITS TO THE EAST. IN ADDITION...A BAND OF PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE FRONT EXTENDING FROM NEAR SANTA ROSA TO
GLENRIO WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTH THIS MORNING. GUSTY NORTH WINDS
WILL ACCOMPANY THIS BOUNDARY BUT SHOULD NOT BE LONG LIVED.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD DIMINISH BY MIDDAY AS A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS.
VENTILATION TODAY WILL BE POOR OVER MUCH OF THE WEST AND FAR EASTERN
BORDER...BUT GOOD ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE OVERALL THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT SHOULD BE DRY BUT WITH GOOD TO EXCELLENT RH RECOVERIES.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO
NORTHERN AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO SUNDAY AND TO AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 40 SUNDAY NIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE NOW FORECAST TO BE
STRONGER SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE INCOMING TROUGH IS A LITTLE QUICKER
ALONG WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. VENTILATION SHOULD BE GOOD TO
EXCELLENT OVERALL. RH VALUES ARE NOW FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE MID
TO UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS...WHICH
COULD LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT OF AT LEAST SPOTTY CRITICAL CONDITIONS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE MONDAY WITH STRONG DRYING. LOCALIZED
CRITICAL CONDITIONS COULD REDEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON IN THE EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS. VENTILATION WILL REMAIN GOOD TO EXCELLENT EAST BUT
WILL RANGE FROM FAIR TO GOOD IN THE NORTHWEST.
THEREAFTER A CLOSED UPPER LOW IS NOW FORECAST TO DEVELOP TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF NEW MEXICO TUESDAY...BUT AT THIS TIME APPEARS TO HAVE
LITTLE IMPACT ON THE FORECAST AREA. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL SWEEP
THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE STATE...BRINGING SOME TEMPERATURE
SWINGS AND POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR
MOST LOCALES TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 49 26 46 19 / 0 0 40 50
DULCE........................... 45 11 43 11 / 0 5 40 60
CUBA............................ 43 20 45 22 / 0 0 20 50
GALLUP.......................... 48 19 46 18 / 0 0 30 50
EL MORRO........................ 41 20 42 21 / 0 0 30 30
GRANTS.......................... 44 24 45 24 / 0 0 20 30
QUEMADO......................... 45 22 47 25 / 0 0 20 20
GLENWOOD........................ 55 22 59 23 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 40 18 39 18 / 0 5 50 60
LOS ALAMOS...................... 41 23 44 26 / 0 0 5 40
PECOS........................... 39 24 43 26 / 5 0 0 30
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 42 11 44 15 / 0 0 0 50
RED RIVER....................... 35 14 37 12 / 5 0 5 60
ANGEL FIRE...................... 37 15 41 16 / 5 0 5 50
TAOS............................ 42 16 44 21 / 0 0 0 40
MORA............................ 40 11 45 25 / 5 0 0 30
ESPANOLA........................ 50 22 52 21 / 0 0 0 40
SANTA FE........................ 42 29 45 27 / 0 0 0 40
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 46 25 49 23 / 0 0 0 30
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 49 32 52 28 / 0 0 0 10
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 51 32 55 29 / 0 0 0 5
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 52 28 56 30 / 0 0 0 5
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 53 30 56 28 / 0 0 0 5
LOS LUNAS....................... 52 23 57 27 / 0 0 0 5
RIO RANCHO...................... 50 29 53 27 / 0 0 0 5
SOCORRO......................... 56 29 62 32 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 46 27 49 25 / 0 0 5 20
TIJERAS......................... 50 28 53 28 / 0 0 0 10
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 43 25 48 26 / 0 0 0 5
CLINES CORNERS.................. 39 26 45 25 / 0 0 0 10
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 46 26 52 29 / 0 0 0 5
CARRIZOZO....................... 50 27 56 28 / 0 0 0 5
RUIDOSO......................... 44 28 50 29 / 5 0 0 5
CAPULIN......................... 37 23 51 27 / 5 0 0 10
RATON........................... 49 24 57 26 / 5 0 0 10
SPRINGER........................ 47 19 57 26 / 5 0 0 10
LAS VEGAS....................... 42 17 52 26 / 5 0 0 10
CLAYTON......................... 40 24 58 29 / 5 0 0 10
ROY............................. 42 22 56 30 / 5 0 0 10
CONCHAS......................... 47 27 62 34 / 5 0 0 10
SANTA ROSA...................... 48 24 60 32 / 5 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 46 28 63 35 / 10 0 0 5
CLOVIS.......................... 44 30 62 33 / 30 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 46 31 63 34 / 30 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 53 26 67 34 / 20 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 52 27 69 36 / 20 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 51 24 64 31 / 10 0 0 0
ELK............................. 48 26 58 31 / 5 0 0 5
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
GUYER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
639 AM EST SAT FEB 18 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW WILL MOVE FROM LOWER MICHIGAN TO WESTERN NEW YORK STATE
TODAY AND DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT AND CONTINUE IN CONTROL OF
OUR WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A LOW WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST JUST NORTH OF LAKE ERIE THIS
MORNING. SOME PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE LOW. THIS PRECIPITATION
IS LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS AND IT SHOULD MAINLY IMPACT THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH DAYBREAK. IT IS MOVING QUICKLY SO WILL ONLY
MENTION IT IN THE SNOW BELT AREAS. HOWEVER THE 05Z-08Z HRRR MODEL RUN
HAS MORE PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING AROUND DAYBREAK OVER NORTHEAST OHIO
AND NORTHWEST PA. NOTHING GOING ON OVER NORTHERN INDIANA. STILL
GOING ON THE PREMISE THAT THIS PRECIPITATION WILL NOT DEVELOP AND
HAVE THE WORDING EARLY IN THE GRIDS/ZONES FOR EXTREME NORTHEAST
OHIO AND NORTHWEST PA.
SOME MINOR LAKE EFFECT/LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON FOR THE SNOW BELT. THIS IS THE TOUGH
PART OF THE FORECAST. THE RIDGE WILL TRY TO BUILD IN AND THE LAKE
AND 850 MB TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE WILL BE NEAR 11 OR 12C BY
EVENING. THE GFS MODEL SEEMS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THIS BASED
ON THE MOISTURE. ATTM WILL KEEP THE POPS 50% BUT GO WITH SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS AND UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATION...FROM
ASHTABULA COUNTY EAST. ELSEWHERE A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE AS
WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT FOR MORE CLOUDS TO MOVE BACK IN THIS MORNING
AS THE LOW MOVES EAST. USED A BLEND OF THE MOS GUIDANCE AS
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL COOL DOWN BEHIND THE LOW...HOWEVER...WITH
SOME SUNSHINE THIS TIME OF YEAR THAT WILL HELP KEEP THE
TEMPERATURES MORE STEADY THEN FALLING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT
BEFORE DECREASING. ELSEWHERE SOME CLOUDS LINGERING SO WENT ON THE
WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE. THE LOW MOVING FROM THE GULF COAST STATES
ON SUNDAY TO THE EAST COAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WILL
ONLY IMPACT THE AREA WITH A NORTHEAST FLOW THAT WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND WILL CAUSE SOME CLOUDS BUT NO
PRECIPITATION.
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A WEAK TROF
THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY. THE GFS IS A LITTLE FASTER
AND STRONGER THAN THE ECMWF. AT THIS TIME WITH THE UNCERTAINTY DID
NOT CHANGE ANYTHING FROM THE CURRENT FORECAST AND CONTINUED CHANCE
OF RAIN SHOWERS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BEGINNING MIDWEEK IN THE LONG TERM MODELS BEGIN SOMEWHAT SIMILAR IN
OVERALL PATTERN WITH LOW PRESSURE/TROUGH FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES TO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WOULD SET UP SOME WAA OVER THE
AREA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE. OVERALL THINKING
WEDNESDAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY WITH BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON.
BEYOND WEDNESDAY...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES IN
HANDLING LOWS AS THEY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. GFS QUICKLY BUILDS IN
THE NEXT LOW LATER THURSDAY WHILE ECMWF LINGERS COLDER CYCLONIC FLOW
OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY THE GFS BRINGS NEXT LOW INTO
THE AREA WHILE ECMWF SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. GIVEN SUCH
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AND CHANGES IN SOLUTIONS MADE ONLY SMALL
DEVIATIONS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WHILE CONTINUING TO MENTION
LOWER CHC POPS THROUGH MOST PERIODS.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF LAKE ERIE WILL MOVE EASTWARD TODAY.
ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL MOVE OVER LAKE ERIE LATER THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. SOME CLOUDS ACROSS EASTERN SITES EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ALLOWING FOR MAINLY SCT CLOUDS
FOR MOST SITES EXCEPT ERI. VFR CIGS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON ACROSS SITES AS UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY MOVES ACROSS LAKE ERIE. EXPECTING SITES TO REMAIN DRY WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF ERI WHERE THERE MAY BE SOME SNOW SHOWERS WITH
THIS IN THE AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 12KT OR SO EXPECTED
WITH GUSTS AROUND 20KT LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON...A BIT STRONGER AT
ERI.
LOW PRESSURE MOVES WELL EAST OF THE AREA BY THIS EVENING ALLOWING
FOR CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST. ERI WILL BE LAST TO SCATTER
OUT EARLY TONIGHT. WINDS SHIFTING NW TO NE OVERNIGHT. LEFT SOME
SCATTERED CLOUDS ACROSS SOME EASTERN SITES.
OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY. NON-VFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN WILL PUSH EASTWARD JUST
NORTH OF THE LAKE TODAY. THE COLD FRONT WITH THE LOW WILL CROSS THE
LAKE THROUGH TODAY SHIFTING SW WINDS TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST LATE
WHILE INCREASING WINDS. WILL KEEP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN PLACE
THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT WITH THE WNW WINDS AND 4 TO 5 FOOT WAVES.
HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES MORE DOMINATE ACROSS THE LAKE ON SUNDAY. NORTH
WINDS ON THE LAKE DON/T APPEAR TO BE AS STRONG AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT
WITH LOW PRESSURE TRACKING TO FAR SOUTH OF THE LAKE KEEPING THE
TIGHTER GRADIENT TO THE SOUTH. WITH THAT CONFIDENCE A BIT LOWER ON
NEED FOR A SMALL CRAFT ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LAKE MONDAY
KEEPING CONDITIONS QUIET...THEN SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS TUESDAY AHEAD
OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE/COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE. THERE
IS A CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. WEAK RIDGING EXPECTED OVER THE LAKE WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE NEXT
SYSTEM APPROACHES.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LEZ146>149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...ABE
MARINE...ABE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
633 AM EST SAT FEB 18 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW WILL MOVE FROM LOWER MICHIGAN TO WESTERN NEW YORK STATE
TODAY AND DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT AND CONTINUE IN CONTROL OF
OUR WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A LOW WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST JUST NORTH OF LAKE ERIE THIS
MORNING. SOME PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE LOW. THIS PRECIPITATION
IS LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS AND IT SHOULD MAINLY IMPACT THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH DAYBREAK. IT IS MOVING QUICKLY SO WILL ONLY
MENTION IT IN THE SNOW BELT AREAS. HOWEVER THE 05Z HRRR MODEL RUN
HAS MORE PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING AROUND DAYBREAK OVER EXTREME
NORTHERN OHIO AND NORTHWEST PA. NOTHING GOING ON OVER NORTHERN
INDIANA. SOME MINOR LAKE EFFECT/LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON FOR THE SNOW BELT. THIS IS THE TOUGH
PART OF THE FORECAST. THE RIDGE WILL TRY TO BUILD IN AND THE LAKE
AND 850 MB TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE WILL BE NEAR 11 OR 12C BY
EVENING. THE GFS MODEL SEEMS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THIS BASED
ON THE MOISTURE. ATTM WILL KEEP THE POPS 50% BUT GO WITH SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS AND UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATION...FROM
ASHTABULA COUNTY EAST. ELSEWHERE A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE AS
WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT FOR MORE CLOUDS TO MOVE BACK IN LATER TODAY
AFTER THE LOW MOVES EAST. USED A BLEND OF THE MOS GUIDANCE AS
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL COOL DOWN BEHIND THE LOW...HOWEVER...WITH
SOME SUNSHINE THIS TIME OF YEAR THAT WILL HELP KEEP THE
TEMPERATURES MORE STEADY THEN FALLING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT
BEFORE DECREASING. ELSEWHERE SOME CLOUDS LINGERING SO WENT ON THE
WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE. THE LOW MOVING FROM THE GULF COAST STATES
ON SUNDAY TO THE EAST COAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WILL
ONLY IMPACT THE AREA WITH A NORTHEAST FLOW THAT WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND WILL CAUSE SOME CLOUDS BUT NO
PRECIPITATION.
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A WEAK TROF
THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY. THE GFS IS A LITTLE FASTER
AND STRONGER THAN THE ECMWF. AT THIS TIME WITH THE UNCERTAINTY DID
NOT CHANGE ANYTHING FROM THE CURRENT FORECAST AND CONTINUED CHANCE
OF RAIN SHOWERS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BEGINNING MIDWEEK IN THE LONG TERM MODELS BEGIN SOMEWHAT SIMILAR IN
OVERALL PATTERN WITH LOW PRESSURE/TROUGH FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES TO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WOULD SET UP SOME WAA OVER THE
AREA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE. OVERALL THINKING
WEDNESDAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY WITH BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON.
BEYOND WEDNESDAY...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES IN
HANDLING LOWS AS THEY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. GFS QUICKLY BUILDS IN
THE NEXT LOW LATER THURSDAY WHILE ECMWF LINGERS COLDER CYCLONIC FLOW
OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY THE GFS BRINGS NEXT LOW INTO
THE AREA WHILE ECMWF SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. GIVEN SUCH
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AND CHANGES IN SOLUTIONS MADE ONLY SMALL
DEVIATIONS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WHILE CONTINUING TO MENTION
LOWER CHC POPS THROUGH MOST PERIODS.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF LAKE ERIE WILL MOVE EASTWARD TODAY.
ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL MOVE OVER LAKE ERIE LATER THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. SOME CLOUDS ACROSS EASTERN SITES EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ALLOWING FOR MAINLY SCT CLOUDS
FOR MOST SITES EXCEPT ERI. VFR CIGS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON ACROSS SITES AS UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY MOVES ACROSS LAKE ERIE. EXPECTING SITES TO REMAIN DRY WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF ERI WHERE THERE MAY BE SOME SNOW SHOWERS WITH
THIS IN THE AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 12KT OR SO EXPECTED
WITH GUSTS AROUND 20KT LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON...A BIT STRONGER AT
ERI.
LOW PRESSURE MOVES WELL EAST OF THE AREA BY THIS EVENING ALLOWING
FOR CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST. ERI WILL BE LAST TO SCATTER
OUT EARLY TONIGHT. WINDS SHIFTING NW TO NE OVERNIGHT. LEFT SOME
SCATTERED CLOUDS ACROSS SOME EASTERN SITES.
OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY. NON-VFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN WILL PUSH EASTWARD JUST
NORTH OF THE LAKE TODAY. THE COLD FRONT WITH THE LOW WILL CROSS THE
LAKE THROUGH TODAY SHIFTING SW WINDS TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST LATE
WHILE INCREASING WINDS. WILL KEEP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN PLACE
THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT WITH THE WNW WINDS AND 4 TO 5 FOOT WAVES.
HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES MORE DOMINATE ACROSS THE LAKE ON SUNDAY. NORTH
WINDS ON THE LAKE DON/T APPEAR TO BE AS STRONG AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT
WITH LOW PRESSURE TRACKING TO FAR SOUTH OF THE LAKE KEEPING THE
TIGHTER GRADIENT TO THE SOUTH. WITH THAT CONFIDENCE A BIT LOWER ON
NEED FOR A SMALL CRAFT ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LAKE MONDAY
KEEPING CONDITIONS QUIET...THEN SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS TUESDAY AHEAD
OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE/COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE. THERE
IS A CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. WEAK RIDGING EXPECTED OVER THE LAKE WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE NEXT
SYSTEM APPROACHES.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LEZ146>149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...ABE
MARINE...ABE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
102 PM EST SAT FEB 18 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A CLIPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WITH SOME SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL USHER IN SEASONABLY COLD AND DRY WEATHER FROM
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY INTO THE
WASHINGTON/S BIRTHDAY HOLIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 102 PM EST...RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS THAT MOVED ACROSS THE
CATSKILLS AND INTO THE BERKSHIRES HAVE STARTED TO DIMINISH DUE TO
LOW LEVEL DRY AIR AND THE BEST FORCING REMAINING FURTHER TO THE
WEST. AT THE SAME TIME...SNOW SHOWERS HAVE REALLY STARTED TO
BLOSSOM OVER THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...EVIDENT ON THE LATEST
RETURNS FROM THE KTYX RADAR AND WEBCAM IMAGERY...AS AN APPROACHING
SFC CLIPPER AND UPSLOPE FLOW IS TEAMING UP. HAVE KEPT
LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS FOR THE WESTERN DACKS FOR THE EARLY TO MID
AFTN...AND HAVE GONE SLIGHT CHC/LOW CHC ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE CWA. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S THIS
AFTN FOR VALLEY AREAS...WITH LOW TO MID 30S FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. SOME AREAS IN THE WESTERN DACKS RECEIVING SNOW WILL
PROBABLY REMAIN BELOW FREEZING AND COULD BEGIN TO DROP A FEW
DEGREES AS WELL.
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING...THE APPROACHING SFC LOW
AND A SHARP TROUGH ALOFT WILL APPROACH FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
THERE IS PLENTY OF COLD AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE...WITH 500 HPA TEMPS AS LOW AS -35 DEGREES C. PLENTY OF LIFT
AND INSTABILITY SHOULD LEAD TO A BAND OF LOOSELY ORGANIZED
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS THAT WILL QUICKLY MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE AREA. THE LATEST 15 UTC 3KM HRRR SUPPORTS THIS IDEA AS WELL.
WHILE SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE INITIALLY WARM ENOUGH IN THE VALLEYS TO
LET THE PRECIP BEGIN AS RAIN...TEMPS SHOULD WETBULB TO EVEN ALLOW
MOST VALLEY AREAS TO TRANSITION OVER THE SNOW BEFORE IT ENDS BY
LATER THIS EVENING. AREAS TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/WESTERN
DACKS MAY REMAIN IN A MORE STEADIER SNOW FOR A FEW HOURS. TOTAL
AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A DUSTING TO AN INCH IN THE CAPITAL
REGION...WITH 1-3 INCHES FOR HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS...AND PERHAPS 2 TO
LOCALLY 4 ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.
PRECIP WILL DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT AND CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR
OUT. MIN TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S...WITH
SOME TEENS ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE FAST MOVING CLIPPER MOVES EAST OF THE REGION BEFORE
MIDNIGHT WITH THE SNOW SHOWERS/LIGHT SNOW QUICKLY ENDING. THE
TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY BE AN INCH OR LESS ACROSS
THE REGION WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE
BERKSHIRES...WRN DACKS...W-CNTRL MOHAWK VALLEY...ERN
CATSKILLS...AND THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY. COLD AIR ADVECTION OCCURS IN
THE WAKE OF THE CLIPPER WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN NORTH OF
LAKE HURON AND JAMES BAY. MEANWHILE...A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL STAY WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION...OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES AND SHIFTING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WITH THE SPLIT
UPPER LEVEL FLOW...NOT PHASING...AND THE NRN STREAM TROUGH STEERS
THE STORM OUT TO SEA. EXPECT THE SKIES TO GRADUALLY CLEAR SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH LOWS 20-25F IN THE VALLEYS...AND MID AND UPPER TEENS
OVER THE MTNS.
SUNDAY...THE LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES ANTICYCLONIC WITH ANY
LAKE EFFECT OVER CNTRL NY IN THE NW FLOW. THE RH PROFILES ARE VERY
DRY WITH PLENTY OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE FROM THE BROAD ANTICYCLONE TO
THE NORTH AND WEST. SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
STORM MOVING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES MAY REACH THE SOUTHERN
ZONES. HIGHS WILL TREND TOWARDS SEASONABLE READINGS WITH MID AND
UPPER 30S IN THE VALLEY /EXCEPT OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT/ WHERE SOME LOWER 40S WILL BE POSSIBLE...AND U20S TO M30S OVER
THE MTNS. THESE VALUES WERE CLOSER TO THE METMOS VALUES.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES WITH
THE SFC ANTICYCLONE RIDGING IN OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING IF THE WINDS
GO CALM. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER THE REGION LATE
MONDAY PM TO MONDAY NIGHT...WITH HEIGHTS AND H850 TEMPS ON THE
RISE FOR TUESDAY. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THE STRETCH...WITH
LOTS OF SUNSHINE FOR THE PRESIDENTS DAY HOLIDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST GROWS WITH TIME. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO THE LONGWAVE PATTERN...WITH A
STRENGTHENING RIDGE OFFSHORE THE WEST COAST AND TROUGHING ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CONUS. HOWEVER...THIS IS NOT TRANSLATING TO AGREEMENT
WITH THE PLACEMENT...MOVEMENT AND/OR STRENGTHEN OF SURFACE
FEATURES/SYSTEMS. THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER HAS
FAVORED THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THIS IS DUE TO
THE FACT THAT THE OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GFS...ECMWF AND UKMET ARE
ALL MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE WHICH IS SLOWER
MOVING SYSTEMS FROM THE MIDWEST EASTWARD MID WEEK ONWARD. AT THIS
TIME LOOKS LIKE UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR TO START. CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE DAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
EXPECT A FEW HOURS OF MVFR CONDITIONS...BUT MODELS INDICATE STRONG
SQUALL LINE MAY DEVELOP ON LEADING EDGE OF COLD POOL LATER TODAY.
THIS COULD RESULT IN BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR ALL TAF SITES IN SNOW. A
QUICK COATING (LESS THAN AN INCH) OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE AS WELL. VFR
CONDITIONS RETURN BY MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW.
WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY AND MAINLY LIGHT SHIFTING MORE TO THE
NORTHWEST THIS EVENING AT 5 TO 10 KTS AND COULD BECOME GUSTY THROUGH
MIDNIGHT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS. WINDS DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND SHIFT
TO THE NORTH NORTHWEST. TOMORROW...WINDS NORTHWEST TO NORTH 5 TO 10
KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...
SUN-TUE...VFR...NO SIG WX.
TUE NIGHT-THU...VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHRA/-SHSN.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SOME
HYDRO GAGES MAY SHOW ICE EFFECTS FROM THE MOHAWK VALLEY NORTHWARD
IN THE ALBANY HYDRO SERVICE AREA.
THE CLIPPER LOW WILL BRING LIGHT QPF OF ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN
INCH. SOME LOCATIONS WILL GET A FEW INCHES OF SNOWFALL. DRY
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY THROUGH MOST OF TUESDAY.
AS A REMINDER....THE WINTER SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. PLEASE
REFER TO ALBESFALY /FGUS71 KALY/ FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/WASULA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...SND
HYDROLOGY...WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1147 AM CST SAT FEB 18 2012
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1040 AM CST SAT FEB 18 2012
FORECAST GENERALLY LOOKS ON TRACK TODAY AND JUST A FEW MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HIGHS AND SKY COVER ELEMENTS TODAY. INCREASING
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS DURING TODAY TO GIVE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER
SE IL THIS AFTERNOON WHILE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAIL OVER MUCH OF
CENTRAL IL WITH SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS OVER EAST CENTRAL IL THIS
AFTERNOON. COOLER HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S FROM I-74 NE...MID 40S
CENTRAL SECTIONS OF IL AND UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50F IN SOUTHEAST IL.
NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH AND GUSTS NEAR 20 MPH TO TURN NE LATER
TODAY.
LATE MORNING SURFACE MAP SHOWS 1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE
IA/NE BORDER AND RIDGING INTO MN WAS PROVIDING AMPLE SUNSHINE OVER
CENTRAL IL THIS MORNING. 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE WAS NEAR NIAGARA
FALLS WITH ITS COLD FRONT PRESSING JUST SE OF THE OHIO RIVER INTO
CENTRAL ARKANSAS. A 1006 MB LOW PRESSURE WAS OFF THE SE TEXAS COAST
AND A WARM FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM WAS
SPREADING MID/HIGH CLOUDS OVER SOUTHERN IL WITH THIN VEIL OF
CIRRUS CLOUDS OF SE IL FROM I-70 SE TO LAWRENCEVILLE. ALOFT A 548
DM 500 MB LOW WAS OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA WHILE A DEEP UPPER LEVEL
TROF EXTENDED SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL TEXAS WITH THUNDERSTORMS
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE OVER LA...SOUTHERN MS AND FAR SE TX.
12Z MODELS LIKE THE NAM...SREF AND RUC DRIFT HIGH PRESSURE INTO WI
AND MI THIS EVENING WHILE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SE TX COAST MOVES
INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION AND LOW CLOUDS TO
STAY SE OF CENTRAL IL THOUGH MID/HIGH CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO
INCREASE OVER SE IL DURING THIS AFTERNOON AND PARTS OF CENTRAL IL
SE OF THE IL RIVER THIS EVENING. N/NE WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH AND GUSTS
NEAR 20 MPH TO KEEP HIGHS UP TO 10 DEGREES COOLER TODAY MOSTLY IN
THE LOW TO MID 40S...EXCEPT UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50F IN SE IL. TEMPS
CURRENTLY RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 30S OVER CENTRAL IL AND MID
40S IN FAR SE IL AROUND OLNEY AND LAWRENCEVILLE AND MT CARMEL
AIRPORT.
HUETTL
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1145 AM CST SAT FEB 18 2012
BROKEN MVFR CEILINGS OF 2-3K FT POSSIBLE INTO MID AFTERNOON FROM
BMI AND DEC EAST TO CMI WHILE CUMULUS CLOUD FIELD SHOULD MOSTLY
STAY EAST OF PIA AND SPI THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED TO BROKEN
CUMULUS CLOUD FIELD THAT DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY SUNSET. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER SOUTHERN IL TO
SPREAD NE INTO CENTRAL IL MAINLY DURING THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE
INTO SUNDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY FROM I-55 SE. NNE WINDS 10-15 KTS WITH
GUSTS OF 15-20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON TO TURN NE BY SUNSET AND BE
MAINLY AROUND 10 KTS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.
1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE IA/NE BORDER TO DRIFT EAST INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE
1006 MB LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SE TEXAS COAST TO LIFT INTO THE LOWER
MS VALLEY BY OVERNIGHT AND DEEPEN TO 1001 MB OVER CENTRAL/NORTHERN GA
JUST SOUTH OF ATLANTA BY 18Z/NOON SUNDAY. ITS LOW CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION WILL STAY SE OF CENTRAL IL THIS WEEKEND WITH JUST
ITS MID AND HIGH CLOUD SHIELD AFFECTING CENTRAL IL LATER TODAY
INTO SUNDAY. TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH STRONGER NE WINDS WILL
ALSO IMPACT AREAS MORE SE OF CENTRAL IL THIS WEEKEND.
HUETTL
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 214 AM CST SAT FEB 18 2012
COMPLEX SPLIT-FLOW UPPER PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS NORTH
AMERICA...WITH A VIGOROUS WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH
OF THE JET STREAM BRINGING ACTIVE WEATHER TO THE LOWER-MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY AND GULF COAST. MAIN SHORT-TERM QUESTION FOR CENTRAL
ILLINOIS WILL BE HOW FAR NORTH MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL MAKE
IT LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES WILL
PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY TODAY.
NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPS
TO CENTRAL ILLINOIS...HOWEVER INCOMING AIRMASS IS STILL WARMER
THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGH TEMPS WILL DROP BY ABOUT
10 DEGREES FROM YESTERDAY...WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 40S. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS
OF THE KILX CWA...WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES NOTED ALONG
AND SOUTH OF I-70.
POTENT UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WILL TRACK E/NE
ACROSS THE GULF STATES TONIGHT...TAPPING INTO DEEP GULF MOISTURE
AND RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD PRECIP FROM THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY
SOUTHWARD. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TRACK OF UPPER/SURFACE
SYSTEMS...WITH SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES AMONG THEIR QPF FIELDS. WITH
DRY N/NE FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MIDWEST...THINK THERE WILL BE
A SHARP NORTHERN EDGE TO THE PRECIP SHIELD...MOST LIKELY ACROSS
FAR SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. NAM/GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN RATHER
DRY EVEN AS FAR SOUTH AS LAWRENCEVILLE...HOWEVER HAVE DECIDED TO
MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SOUTH OF I-70 IN CASE WAVE CURLS A BIT
FURTHER NORTHWARD THAN MODELS CURRENTLY SUGGEST.
AFTER MORNING CLOUD COVER ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
ILLINOIS...SUNNY SKIES WILL RETURN ACROSS THE BOARD BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. WILL BE ANOTHER MILD DAY AS WELL...WITH HIGHS ONCE
AGAIN TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S.
NEXT UPPER WAVE RAPIDLY APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE W/SW EARLY
NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES EXIST AMONG THE 00Z 18
FEB MODELS. NAM TAKES SHORT-WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST THEN DIGS IT SHARPLY SOUTHWARD INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
BY MONDAY. MEANWHILE...THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN ARE ALL LESS
AMPLIFIED WITH THE FEATURE...PUSHING IT QUICKLY EASTWARD INTO THE
PLAINS. EVEN THOUGH RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY OF INDIVIDUAL MODELS IS
STILL POOR...HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE CONSENSUS WITH THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE. AS A RESULT...HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST UNTIL SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT. IF SLOWER NAM PANS
OUT...PRECIP MAY EVEN HOLD OFF UNTIL TUESDAY.
LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
TUESDAY APPEARS TO BE A WET DAY...AS SHORT-WAVE TRACKS THROUGH THE
MIDWEST. BEYOND THAT...COMPLEX FLOW PATTERN LEADS TO A LOW
CONFIDENCE EXTENDED FORECAST. A SERIES OF FAST-MOVING/WEAK
DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED TO SWING THROUGH THE REGION...HOWEVER
TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES WILL BE QUITE DIFFICULT. AT THIS
TIME...MODEL CONSENSUS POINTS TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY AS THE
NEXT MOST FAVORABLE TIME FOR LIGHT PRECIP. TEMPS WILL REMAIN
MILD...BUT COULD BE COOL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH ALL RAIN
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.
BARNES
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1041 AM CST SAT FEB 18 2012
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1040 AM CST SAT FEB 18 2012
FORECAST GENERALLY LOOKS ON TRACK TODAY AND JUST A FEW MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HIGHS AND SKY COVER ELEMENTS TODAY. INCREASING
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS DURING TODAY TO GIVE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER
SE IL THIS AFTERNOON WHILE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAIL OVER MUCH OF
CENTRAL IL. COOLER HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S FROM I-74 NE...MID 40S
CENTRAL SECTIONS OF IL AND UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50F IN SOUTHEAST IL.
NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH AND GUSTS NEAR 20 MPH TO TURN NE LATER
TODAY.
LATE MORNING SURFACE MAP SHOWS 1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE
IA/NE BORDER AND RIDGING INTO MN WAS PROVIDING AMPLE SUNSHINE OVER
CENTRAL IL THIS MORNING. 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE WAS NEAR NIAGRA
FALLS WITH ITS COLD FRONT PRESSING JUST SE OF THE OHIO RIVER INTO
CENTRAL ARKANSAS. A 1006 MB LOW PRESSURE WAS OFF THE SE TEXAS COAST
AND A WARM FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM WAS
SPREADING MID/HIGH CLOUDS OVER SOUTHERN IL WITH THIN VEIL OF
CIRRUS CLOUDS OF SE IL FROM I-70 SE TO LAWRENCEVILLE. ALOFT A 548
DM 500 MB LOW WAS OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA WHILE A DEEP UPPER LEVEL
TROF EXTENDED SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL TEXAS WITH THUNDERSTORMS
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE OVER LA...SOUTHERN MS AND FAR SE TX.
12Z MODELS LIKE THE NAM...SREF AND RUC DRIFT HIGH PRESSURE INTO WI
AND MI THIS EVENING WHILE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SE TX COAST MOVES
INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION AND LOW CLOUDS TO
STAY SE OF CENTRAL IL THOUGH MID/HIGH CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO
INCREASE OVER SE IL DURING THIS AFTERNOON AND PARTS OF CENTRAL IL
SE OF THE IL RIVER THIS EVENING. N/NE WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH AND GUSTS
NEAR 20 MPH TO KEEP HIGHS UP TO 10 DEGREES COOLER TODAY MOSTLY IN
THE LOW TO MID 40S...EXCEPT UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50F IN SE IL. TEMPS
CURRENTLY RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 30S OVER CENTRAL IL AND MID
40S IN FAR SE IL AROUND OLNEY AND LAWRENCEVILLE AND MT CARMEL
AIRPORT.
HUETTL
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 528 AM CST SAT FEB 18 2012
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES NEXT 24HRS. SCT-BKN
HIGH CIRRUS IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO THIS EVENING. THEN A BROKEN MID LEVEL DECK AROUND 15K FT WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING TO AROUND MIDNIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...TIL MORNING. NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL BECOME NORTHERLY FOR MOST OF THE DAY...AND THEN NORTHEAST FOR
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE AROUND 10KTS
DURING THE DAY AND THEN DECREASE TO AROUND 8-9 KTS FOR THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
AUTEN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 214 AM CST SAT FEB 18 2012
COMPLEX SPLIT-FLOW UPPER PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS NORTH
AMERICA...WITH A VIGOROUS WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH
OF THE JET STREAM BRINGING ACTIVE WEATHER TO THE LOWER-MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY AND GULF COAST. MAIN SHORT-TERM QUESTION FOR CENTRAL
ILLINOIS WILL BE HOW FAR NORTH MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL MAKE
IT LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES WILL
PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY TODAY.
NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPS
TO CENTRAL ILLINOIS...HOWEVER INCOMING AIRMASS IS STILL WARMER
THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGH TEMPS WILL DROP BY ABOUT
10 DEGREES FROM YESTERDAY...WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 40S. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS
OF THE KILX CWA...WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES NOTED ALONG
AND SOUTH OF I-70.
POTENT UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WILL TRACK E/NE
ACROSS THE GULF STATES TONIGHT...TAPPING INTO DEEP GULF MOISTURE
AND RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD PRECIP FROM THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY
SOUTHWARD. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TRACK OF UPPER/SURFACE
SYSTEMS...WITH SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES AMONG THEIR QPF FIELDS. WITH
DRY N/NE FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MIDWEST...THINK THERE WILL BE
A SHARP NORTHERN EDGE TO THE PRECIP SHIELD...MOST LIKELY ACROSS
FAR SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. NAM/GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN RATHER
DRY EVEN AS FAR SOUTH AS LAWRENCEVILLE...HOWEVER HAVE DECIDED TO
MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SOUTH OF I-70 IN CASE WAVE CURLS A BIT
FURTHER NORTHWARD THAN MODELS CURRENTLY SUGGEST.
AFTER MORNING CLOUD COVER ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
ILLINOIS...SUNNY SKIES WILL RETURN ACROSS THE BOARD BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. WILL BE ANOTHER MILD DAY AS WELL...WITH HIGHS ONCE
AGAIN TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S.
NEXT UPPER WAVE RAPIDLY APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE W/SW EARLY
NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES EXIST AMONG THE 00Z 18
FEB MODELS. NAM TAKES SHORT-WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST THEN DIGS IT SHARPLY SOUTHWARD INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
BY MONDAY. MEANWHILE...THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN ARE ALL LESS
AMPLIFIED WITH THE FEATURE...PUSHING IT QUICKLY EASTWARD INTO THE
PLAINS. EVEN THOUGH RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY OF INDIVIDUAL MODELS IS
STILL POOR...HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE CONSENSUS WITH THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE. AS A RESULT...HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST UNTIL SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT. IF SLOWER NAM PANS
OUT...PRECIP MAY EVEN HOLD OFF UNTIL TUESDAY.
LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
TUESDAY APPEARS TO BE A WET DAY...AS SHORT-WAVE TRACKS THROUGH THE
MIDWEST. BEYOND THAT...COMPLEX FLOW PATTERN LEADS TO A LOW
CONFIDENCE EXTENDED FORECAST. A SERIES OF FAST-MOVING/WEAK
DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED TO SWING THROUGH THE REGION...HOWEVER
TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES WILL BE QUITE DIFFICULT. AT THIS
TIME...MODEL CONSENSUS POINTS TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY AS THE
NEXT MOST FAVORABLE TIME FOR LIGHT PRECIP. TEMPS WILL REMAIN
MILD...BUT COULD BE COOL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH ALL RAIN
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.
BARNES
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
1148 AM CST SAT FEB 18 2012
...UPDATE TO AVIATION...
.DISCUSSION...
SHORT RANGE FORECAST (TODAY AND SUNDAY)...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 08Z RUC UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT
THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH WHICH IS TRAVERSING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS IS LOCATED ROUGHLY OVER WEST CENTRAL TEXAS AND SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF IN A EASTERLY DIRECTION ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS.
THIS TROUGH HAS BROUGHT QUITE A BIT OF PRECIPITATION TO PORTIONS OF
EASTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA...BUT THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE TROUGH
HAS LEFT THE FORECAST AREA MOSTLY DRY. RADAR TRENDS HAVE INDICATED
THAT THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE DEFORMATION BAND ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TROUGH HAS BROUGHT SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO AREAS
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70...BUT PRECIPITATION HAS STEADILY DWINDLED
OVERNIGHT. 11 TO 3.8 MICRON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE STRATUS
SHIELD ENDS RIGHT ALONG INTERSTATE 70...MEANING AREAS NORTH OF I 70
HAVE CLEAR SKIES AND SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR. AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
70 WILL SEE DWINDLING CLOUD COVER AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES EASTWARD.
OVERNIGHT A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED INTO EASTERN
NEBRASKA...WHICH HAS ALLOWED A SURFACE COLD FRONT TO DRAPE ITSELF
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS...LIGHT COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES DOWN FOR SATURDAY...AS WELL AS FAIRLY SHALLOW MIXING TO
AROUND 900 MB. SHOULD THE CLOUDS ERODE QUICKER THAN EXPECTED
TEMPERATURES MAY GET A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN THE GOING FORECAST
OF MID 40S FOR SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY THE SURFACE RIDGE CLEARS OFF TO
THE EAST...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW TO COMMENCE ON
SUNDAY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY TO BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER
THAN SATURDAY AS THE COLDER AIR MASS GETS ERADICATED BY THE STIFF
SOUTHERLY WINDS.
MID RANGE AND EXTENDED FORECAST (MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
THE AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP THROUGH THE WEEKEND
IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING SURFACE TROUGH WHICH WILL COME OFF THE
HIGH PLAINS AND GLIDE E-NE ACROSS NEBRASKA. THIS SURFACE TROUGH IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A POTENT TROUGH WHICH IS PROGGED BY MID RANGE MODELS
TO DIG SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. WITH
AT LEAST 24 TO 36 HOURS OF STEADY WARM/MOIST AIR ADVECTION
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL BE QUITE A BIT WARMER THAN SEASONAL
NORMALS AS MID TO UPPER 50 DEGREE TEMPERATURES COULD BE IN STORE FOR
MONDAY. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS UPPER 50S TO POSSIBLY EVEN LOWER 60S FOR
MONDAY...BUT WILL ERR ON THE LOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE GIVEN THE
POSSIBILITY FOR LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND EVEN SOME PRECIP WORKING
INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY AS THE WARM/MOIST AIR IS ISENTROPICALLY
LIFTED. EXPECT PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE EARLY WEEK SYSTEM TO
BEGIN EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY AS THE MAIN
WAVE PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. GEM/GFS/ECMWF (NAM WAS DISREGARDED
DUE TO INITIALIZATION ERRORS) PROG THE SYSTEM TO BE PRETTY
PROGRESSIVE SO EXPECT THE PRECIP TO GENERALLY COME TO AN END BY
LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. DUE TO A LACK OF
DEEP MOISTURE AND THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE TROUGH THE QPF FOR
THIS EVENT SHOULD BE PRETTY MEAGER...ON THE ORDER OF AROUND A
TENTH TO POSSIBLY A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN. THERMAL PROFILES
SUGGEST THAT A MAJORITY OF THE EVENT WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN
FOR ALL AREAS...BUT WITH SOME COOLER AIR WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE
AREA ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH THERE COULD BE A BRIEF WINDOW
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WHERE A LIGHT MIXTURE OF RAIN/SNOW COULD
FALL...BUT THIS SCENARIO WOULD BE MORE LIKELY IN NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS.
THE REST OF THE WEEK LOOKS TO REMAIN MILD ACROSS NORTHEAST KANSAS
ONCE THE MONDAY TROUGH EXITS THE AREA. LONG RANGE MODELS
HINT AT A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. ONE OR TWO OF THESE WEAK TROUGHS COULD
BRING A POTENTIAL FOR INCREASING CLOUDS AND MAYBE EVEN SOME VERY
LIGHT PRECIP. WILL TRY TO NAIL DOWN SPECIFICS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD
AS IT APPROACHES.
JL
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS REMAIN TO BE EXPECTED. ONLY THING TO WATCH IS
VISIBILITIES IN THE SURFACE RIDGE AND CLEARER SKIES AROUND 11Z
TONIGHT...BUT BR APPEARS TO BE QUITE A LOW PROBABILITY AT THIS
POINT. A FEW MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE
EVENING. NORTHEAST WINDS ON TRACK TO BE SOUTHEAST TOWARD 18Z
SUNDAY...BUT SPEEDS STILL LIGHT.
65
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
346 PM EST SAT FEB 18 2012
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM EST SAT FEB 18 2012
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW NW FLOW ALF OVER
THE UPR GRT LKS BTWN TROF CENTERED OVER QUEBEC AND A RDG ACRS WCNTRL
CAN. SHRTWV EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW IS OVER LOWER MI AND DIGGING
SEWD...LEAVING THE CWA UNDER VIGOROUS DNVA/UPR CNVGC/00Z-12Z H3
RISES AOA 100M IN ITS WAKE. ASSOCIATED SFC HI PRE RDG EXTENDS FM NW
ONTARIO INTO MN. DESPITE THE VIGOROUS SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE DYNAMICS...PLENTY OF LO CLDS LINGER NOT ONLY OVER UPR MI IN
THE CHILLY LLVL NW FLOW E OF THE INCOMING RDG AXIS BUT ALSO INTO NRN
MN RIGHT UNDER THE RDG AXIS. IN FACT...THE 12Z INL/YPL RAOBS DEPICT
A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVRN. HOWEVER SINCE THE INVRN BASE IS
SURPRISINGLY HI H85-875...THERE IS AMPLE DEPTH FOR LLVL MIXING WITH
INVERTED V SUB-INVRN LYR. SINCE H85 TEMPS ARE STILL ARND -15C IN THE
LLVL THERMAL TROF TRAILING THE DEPARTING SHRTWV...LES PERSISTS
MAINLY IN THE NW SN BELTS. BUT THE INTENSITY OF THIS ACTIVITY IS
DIMINISHING WITH FAIRLY HI SFC DEWPT DEPRESSIONS AND THE FLOW
TENDING TOWARD MORE ACYC UNDER THE NEGATIVE DYNAMICS. FARTHER
UPSTREAM...THERE IS A SHRTWV NEAR LK WINNIPEG MOVING ESEWD. BUT THE
AIRMASS IS SO DRY IN THIS AREA NOTHING BUT HI CLDS MARK THE PRESENCE
OF THIS FEATURE.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS THRU SUN ARE CLD TRENDS TNGT/IMPACT ON TEMPS.
TNGT...AS HI PRES BUILDS SLOWLY ACRS WI/UPR MI TNGT UNDER CONFLUENT
WNW FLOW ALF AND THE FLOW BACKS MORE TO THE W...EXPECT LINGERING LES
TO SHIFT INTO AREAS FAVORED BY THAT FLOW AND DIMINISH. WITH THE
BACKING FLOW...SUSPECT THE BULK OF THE LO CLD IN NRN MN WILL DRIFT
TO THE N OF UPR MI AS SHOWN BY THE 12Z LOCAL WRF-ARW MODEL. BUT
THESE CLDS MAY BE MORE PERSISTENT OVER THE KEWEENAW WITH FAVORABLE
UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT DOWN THE LENGTH OF WRN LK SUP AND E OF
MUNISING WITH A LATER BACKING OF THE FLOW. EVEN THOUGH SOME OF THE
HI CLDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE NEAR LK WINNIPEG MAY DRIFT
OVER THE CWA LATER TNGT AS THIS SHRTWV MOVES INTO NRN MN TOWARD
12Z...LGT WINDS/PWAT IN THE 0.15-0.20 INCH RANGE SUPPORT GOING FCST
MIN TEMPS TOWARD THE LO END OF GUIDANCE OVER AT LEAST THE INTERIOR W
HALF.
SUN...AS THE SFC HI PRES RDG DRIFTS INTO LOWER MI...THE LLVL FLOW
OVER UPR MI WL SHIFT TO THE SW...SO ANY LINGERING LK CLDS WL PUSH
OUT INTO LK SUP. WITH A GOOD DEAL OF STRONGER LATE FEB SUNSHINE TO
HEAT THIS DRY AIRMASS AND H85 TEMPS PROGGED TO REACH -5C TO -7C BY
00Z MON...EXPECT A HEALTHY DIURNAL TEMP RECOVERY TO PUSH MAX TEMPS
WELL INTO THE 30S AT MOST PLACES. AREAS OVER THE E CLOSER TO THE
DEPARTING H85 THERMAL TROF AND UNDER A SW FLOW OFF THE CHILLY WATERS
OF LK MI WL BE COLDEST.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM EST SAT FEB 18 2012
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE RESULTS IN BENIGN WEATHER
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL
RUN FM SOUTHERN WI THROUGH NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND INTO
SOUTHWEST QUEBEC BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. EXPECT LOWEST TEMPS ON SUNDAY
NIGHT OVER INLAND SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CWA CLOSER TO THE RIDGE AND
LIGHTER WINDS. BIAS CORRECTED GFS MOS LOOKED BEST...BUT DID SOME
ADDITIONAL TWEAK DOWN OF TEMPS OVR INLAND EAST.
ATTN ON MONDAY TURNS TO PAIR OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS THAT WILL BE
PUSHING FM THE ROCKIES EAST INTO THE CNTRL AND NORTHERN PLAINS.
GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN INDICATE TWO DISTINCT TROUGHS IN THE PV FIELDS
AND THIS STAYS THE CASE RIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE TROUGHS MOVE
ACROSS UPR LAKES. MAIN ISSUE ON MONDAY IS INCREASING MID CLOUDS OUT
AHEAD OF UPR TROUGHS. DESPITE CHILLY START...SHOULD BE ANOTHER WARM
AFTN AS MIXING TO 925MB-900MB SUPPORTS HIGHS WELL INTO THE 30S.
EXPECT NO PRECIP INTO WESTERN CWA BY 00Z TUE. NAM IS SIGNIFICANT
OUTLIER BY LIFTING WELL DEFINED H85 CLOSED LOW INTO NORTHERN MN/QPF
INTO FAR WESTERN UPR MI BY LATE TUESDAY AFTN. ALL OTHER GUIDANCE HAS
MORE OF AN ELONGATED TROUGH FM NEB INTO NW MN AND CONTINUE TO TREND
SLOWER IN ARRIVAL OF QPF OVR CWA UNTIL LATER MONDAY NIGHT. HAVE
DISCOUNTED THE NAM AND TRENDED TOWARD OTHER MODELS FOR ARRIVAL OF
PRECIPITATION.
INTO TUESDAY...MAIN DIFFERENCE IS THAT GFS IS MORE PHASED WITH H85
TROUGHS AND HAS MORE MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE UPR LAKES. EVEN THE
GFS SHOWS THE PRIMARY JET STREAM REMAINING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER.
ECMWF AND CANADIAN OFFER MORE TONED DOWN GFS IDEA BUT THEY ARE
SHOWING MORE PHASING OF H85 TROUGHS THAN THEY DID EARLIER. RESULT IS
MAIN MOISTURE STREAM/HIGHER PWATS STAYING TIED INTO SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE TRACKING ACROSS OHIO VALLEY INTO CNTRL GREAT LAKES WHILE
UPR LAKES/UPR MICHIGAN IS WITHIN REMNANTS OF DEEPER MOISTURE BEING
ADVECTED INTO THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM. LIMITED LARGE SCALE
PHASING ALLOWS WARMER AIR TO REMAIN TO SOUTH SO SNOW WILL BE MAIN
PTYPE. ONLY EXCEPTION IS ALONG IMMEDIATE LK MICHIGAN SHORE WHERE A
MIX OF RAIN/SNOW WAS MENTIONED WITH ONSHORE WINDS. BASED ON MAX
TEMPS INTO MID 30S CONSIDERED ADDING RAIN MENTION ELSEWHERE...BUT
WBZERO HEIGHTS LESS THAN 500AGL WOULD LEAD TO ONLY BRIEF MIXING WITH
RAIN BEFORE SNOW TAKES OVER AS MAIN PYTPE.
INCREASED POPS INTO THE LIKELY RANGE FOR TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY FIRST
PART OF DAY ON TUESDAY OVER WEST AS THAT IS WHEN THE TWO MOISTURE
STREAMS WITH THE SHORTWAVES ARE IN GREATEST PROXIMITY.
HOWEVER...BASED ON THE GENERAL DOWNWARD TREND TO MOISTURE/LIFT AS
TUESDAY GOES ON...IN ADDITION TO FAIRLY WARM BLYR TEMPS IN THE
LOWER-MID 30S...PROBABLY WILL NOT BE MUCH FOR SNOW ACCUMS OVER UPR
MI FOR MOST OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON TUESDAY. POSSIBLE EXCEPTION
WOULD BE IN THE FAR WEST DURING THE MORNING WHERE A FEW INCHES OF
SNOW COULD OCCUR VCNTY OF KIWD.
BASE OF NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH SETTLES CLOSE BY ON TUESDAY NIGHT
WHILE THERE IS STILL LINGERING H85-H7 MOISTURE IN WAKE OF SYSTEM THAT
MOVES THROUGH ON TUESDAY. GIVEN THE SETUP...CANNOT RULE OUT SMALL
SHORTWAVES ROUNDING BASE OF TROUGH THAT DO NOT SHOW UP IN GUIDANCE
RIGHT NOW. CARRIED SMALL CHANCE POPS FOR LGT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES...
ESPECIALLY OVER KEWEENAW WHERE WEST WINDS PROVIDE A BIT MORE
MOISTENING OFF LAKE SUPERIOR.
IN THE EXTENDED...SFC-H85 LOW IS FCST TO BE NORTH OF LK SUPERIOR ON
WEDNESDAY. 00Z ECMWF MORE AMPLIFIED WITH SMALLER H85 LOW SLIDING
ACROSS IN WESTERLY FLOW WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SWATH OF SYNOPTIC SNOW
OVR PORTIONS OF THE CWA ON WEDNESDAY. ECMWF IDEA SEEMS LIKE LOW RISK
AT THIS POINT AS PREVIOUS RUNS DID NOT HAVE THIS AND OTHER MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS DO NOT SHOW IT AS WELL. INSTEAD WILL GO WITH IDEA THAT
MAINLY QUIET CONDITIONS WILL BE AROUND ON WEDNESDAY IN WAKE OF
TUESDAY SYSTEM. UPR TROUGH EVENTUALLY SLIDES THROUGH UPR LAKES LATER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...USHERING IN COLDER AIR TO END THE
WEEK. CYCLONIC FLOW WITHIN THE SFC-H5 TROUGHINESS ALLOWS DEEPER
MOISTURE TO HANG AROUND THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. GIVEN COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND THE MOISTURE...PROBABLY WILL SEE ACCUMULATING SNOWS
FOR AREAS NEAR LK SUPERIOR FAVORED BY NW WINDS. DRYING FCST TO
SPREAD IN FM NW ON FRIDAY AS UPR LOW CENTER SLIDES EAST. DOES COOL
OFF SLIGHTLY COMPARED TO THURSDAY THOUGH...SO WOULD EXPECT LK EFFECT
TO CONTINUE IN NW FLOW AREAS WITH MAINLY LGT ACCUMS. SAME GOES FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS SFC-H85 RIDGE IS STUBBORN TO ARRIVE FM
THE WEST. KIND OF A CHANGE FROM THE QUICK-MOVING PATTERN THAT HAS
BEEN PRESENT OVER THE REGION FOR MOST OF THE WINTER. MAIN CHANGE TO
EXTENDED WAS TO INCREASE POPS FOR LK EFFECT AREAS COMPARED TO WHAT
ALLBLEND PROCEDURE GENERATED. AWAY FM THE LAKE EFFECT...EXPECT
MAINLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS FOR LATER FEBRUARY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM EST SAT FEB 18 2012
GIVEN PRESENCE OF MORE CLDS UPSTREAM OVER MN AND RATHER HI INVRN
BASE SHOWN ON THE 12Z INL RAOB...TENDED TO SLOW DOWN CLEARING
TREND/PROGRESSION TO VFR AT ALL 3 SITES FROM PREVIOUS FCST. SINCE
THE FLOW WL BE SHIFTING TO THE W WITH ARRIVAL OF HI PRES RDG...
MAINTAINED THE MVFR CIGS AT CMX THRU THE NGT WITH UPSLOPE WIND
COMPONENT. IWD/SAW SHOULD GO VFR THIS EVNG WITH ARRIVAL OF RDG AXIS
AND LESS FAVORABLE WIND. ONCE THE FLOW BACKS MORE TO THE WSW ON SUN
MRNG WITH SHIFT OF RDG TO THE E...EXPECT THE LO CLDS TO LIFT N OF
CMX AS WELL...WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREDOMINATING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 342 PM EST SAT FEB 18 2012
WITH AN UNSEASONABLY WEAK PRES GRADIENT FORECAST TO DOMINATE THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS COMING WEEK...EXPECT WINDS NO HIGHER THAN
25 KTS THIS FORECAST PERIOD. NO GALES ARE LIKELY ANYTIME SOON.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON MS
1037 AM CST SAT FEB 18 2012
.UPDATE...
HEAVY RAINFALL IS THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THIS AFTERNOON...
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE HWY 84 CORRIDOR. THE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER HAS
BEEN DIMINISHING AS IT IS BECOMING MORE APPARENT THAT A BOW ECHO
MOVING AND ACCELERATING EASTWARD ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR WILL STAY
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION PRECEDING THE BOW ECHO CONTINUES
TO MAINTAIN A STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER OVER SRN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA...BUT WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET IN PLACE...THERE IS STILL SOME
RISK FOR THE RICHER MARINE LAYER TO SURGE NORTH AND DESTABILIZE THE
AIRMASS OVER SRN MARION/LAMAR/FORREST COUNTIES SUFFICIENTLY TO GET
STRONG/SVR WIND GUSTS AT THE SURFACE AND PERHAPS A TORNADO. HIGH RES
MODELS ARE STRUGGLING TO DEPICT THE CONVECTIVE SCENARIO WITH THE
LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE IS TOO SLOW...SO MUCH OF THE FORECAST THINKING
IS BASED ON SATELLITE/RADAR/OBS DATA.
AN IMPRESSIVE SET-UP FOR HEAVY RAIN IS IN PLACE ALONG THE CNTRL GULF
COAST WITH THE ENTRANCE REGION TO A 150+KT JET STREAM LEADING TO
STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT OF 1.5+" PRECIPITABLE WATER AIRMASS INTO
THE ARKLAMISS. THE MOST INTENSE RAINFALL RATES ASSOCIATED WITH BOW
ECHO SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT STRONG FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING IS LEADING TO STEADIER HEAVY RAINFALL RATES UP TO THE I-20
CORRIDOR WHERE RUN-OFF PROBLEMS AND PONDING OF WATER ARE STILL LIKELY
DESPITE THE ABSENCE OF TSTMS. THE 12Z NAM SHIFTS THE STRONGER AREA
OF FORCING AND HEAVIER QPF ACROSS THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...WILL KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH GOING BUT WITH EMPHASIS
FOR HEAVIEST RAINFALL ALONG THE HWY 84 CORRIDOR.
OTHERWISE...WILL MAKE MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO FORECAST ELEMENTS
BASED ON LATEST TRENDS. THE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION IS BELOW. /EC/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 505 AM CST SAT FEB 18 2012/
RAINFALL DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW SHOULD EXIT TO THE
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THIS EVENING AND THE RAINFALL FOCUS WILL
SHIFT TO THE MID LEVEL TROF...WHICH WILL IMPACT AREAS MORE NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 20. THE RAIN WILL BE ENDING IN THE NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA
BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY CLEAR FROM THE SOUTHWEST
ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
ALLOWING FOR CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 30S.
LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THE WORK WEEK...THE UPPER LEVEL WEATHER
PATTERN EVOLUTION ACROSS THE LOWER FORTY-EIGHT FOR THE COMING WORK
WEEK LOOKS TO CONTINUE TO FEATURE QUITE A BIT OF ACTIVITY FOR THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. DURING THIS SPAN EXPECT SEVERAL
FRONTS TO AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA WITH CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION...ALTHOUGH SPECIFIC WEATHER SETUPS AND UNCERTAINTY DO
NOT YIELD MUCH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER PRECIPITATION (AT LEAST IN THE
LONG TERM PERIOD) UNTIL AT LEAST FRIDAY.
THE FIRST FRONT SHOULD BE MORE OF A LOW LEVEL TROUGH (FEATURING WEAK
TEMPERATURE GRADIENTS) PULLING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT
AND STALLING. MOISTURE ADVECTION AND INSTABILITY IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE QUITE MARGINAL AND...CONSIDERING BEST
ATMOSPHERIC LIFT AND FORCING WILL BE TO OUR NORTH...MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR NORTH OF OUR REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.
BUT IT WILL NOT TAKE LONG FOR ANOTHER FOR A MORE-SIGNIFICANT COLD
FRONT TO HEAD OUR WAY AS A MORE STABLE TROUGH AXIS ALOFT DEVELOPS A
LITTLE TO OUR WEST BY MIDWEEK. ALTHOUGH THIS FRONT COMING IN WILL
HAVE A STRONGER TEMP GRADIENT...IT IS STILL EXPECTED TO STALL IN THE
VICINITY OF THE REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AFTER COMING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE SOMEWHAT SUPPRESSED AND FAST NATURE
OF THE FLOW PATTERN WILL MAKE IT HARD TO GET CONSIDERABLE GULF JUICE
BACK INTO THE AREA FOR THIS BOUNDARY TO WORK WITH...BUT THERE IS
STILL EXPECTED TO BE SOME SHOWERS AND MAYBE A FEW STORMS ABOUT GOING
FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT ALL THE WAY THROUGH FRIDAY. AT THIS POINT
THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN OVER THIS PERIOD LOOK TO BE IN EASTERN AND
SOUTHERN MS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND THEN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. THERE ARE SOME SIGNALS THAT PHASING SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY
COMING INTO THE STALLED FRONT BY FRIDAY COULD LEAD TO HEAVY RAIN AND
STORMS...BUT MODEL CONSENSUS IS NOT HIGH ON THIS EVOLUTION...SO
THERE IS DEFINITELY TIME TO WATCH THINGS BEFORE THINKING ABOUT
INCLUDING WORDING IN THE HWO.
OTHERWISE...DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR IS RATHER STOUT THROUGH THIS WHOLE
PERIOD AND IS A LITTLE WORRISOME IF NEAR SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION
CAN DEVELOP ON ANY DAY NEXT WEEK. CHANCES FOR THIS OCCURRENCE EXIST
FOR FRIDAY...BUT UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH AS MENTIONED. BUT THERE ALSO
SEEMS TO BE A CHANCE FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED POCKETS OF DEEP
CONVECTION ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT COMING. AT THIS
POINT MODELS MAKE IT SEEM MUCH MORE LIKELY THAT COPIOUS STORMS
DEVELOPING NEAR THE COAST AT THAT TIME WILL BLOCK MOISTURE FEED INTO
THE HEART OF OUR REGION. WE WILL HAVE TO HOPE THAT OCCURS BECAUSE AN
UNINHIBITED GULF MOISTURE FEED INTO THE ARKLAMISS WOULD LIKELY FUEL
AT LEAST A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA.
GFS-BASED MODEL GUIDANCE DID NOT LOOK AT ALL BAD FOR THE LONG RANGE
PERIOD CONSIDERING MENTIONED UNCERTAINTIES. I TWEAKED POPS A LITTLE
ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT TO MATCH ENSEMBLE THINKING MORE
CLOSELY...BUT OTHERWISE REMAINED WITH MEX POPS. TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE LONG TERM SHOULD BE AVERAGE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
ALTHOUGH THE COLD FRONT COMING IN DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK
WILL HAVE SOME CHILLY AIR BEHIND IT AND ITS EVENTUAL POSITIONING
WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY. /BB/
&&
.AVIATION...
MOD TO HVY RAINS HAVE OVRSPRD THE ARKLAMISS THIS MORNING...WITH TSRA
ACTIVITY TIED TO AREAS ACROSS SRN MS. CONVECTION MAY PUSH CLOSER TO
THE HWY 84 CORRIDOR WITH TIME...HOWEVER SHOULD BE SCT IN NATURE WITH
BETTER TSRA COVERAGE FURTHER S. CIG WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE
THRU THE DAY AS THE MOISTURE SURGES IN. A TREND TOWARD MVFR AND
EVENTUALLY IFR CIG IS XPCTD AT MOST SITES. THIS WILL CONTINUE THRU
THE EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT BEFORE CONDS BEGIN TO SLOWLY IMPROVE
TOMORROW MORNING. SFC WINDS WILL BE NORTHEASTERLY/EASTERLY THRU THE
DAY...AND MAY BE OSNLY GUSTY. /BK/
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MSZ043>066-072>074.
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR LAZ016-023>026.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
354 PM EST SAT FEB 18 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. A FEW LINGERING
FLURRIES IN THE FINGER LAKES REGION SUNDAY MORNING...BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE BRINGS QUIET WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE CWA
THIS AFTERNOON. IT WILL MAKE IT ACROSS AND WEAK OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
THERE WILL BE SOME SHOWERS WITH THIS SYSTEM, MAINLY IN THE FORM OF
SNOW, BUT SOME AREAS, ESPECIALLY IN NEPA, MAY SEE SOME RAIN.
CURRENTLY, RADAR RETURNS OVER NEPA ARE NOT REFLECTING WHAT IS
BEING REPORTED BY ASOS AT A COUPLE OF SITES. BOTH MSV AND AVP HAD
STRONGER RETURNS PASS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD AND NEITHER REPORTED ANY
PRECIPITATION. ON THE OTHER HAND, RME HAD SOME LIGHTER RETURNS AND
IS REPORTING MODERATE SNOW. SAME WITH ELZ. THIS MAKES FORECASTING
POPS A LITTLE TRICKY. BEST GUESS IS SOME VIRGA, WITH FLURRIES/SPRINKLES
AND ISOLATED SHOWERS. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
THE HRRR DID SHOW THIS TYPE OF RETURNS, SO WILL MODEL POPS AFTER
THAT, AT LEAST AS GUIDANCE FOR TIMING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THIS LOW, AS MENTIONED BEFORE, WILL MOVE ACROSS TONIGHT AND WILL
WEAKEN AS IT DOES. SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL FOLLOW BEHIND IT
AND MAY KICK OFF SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN THE NORTHERN AND FINGER
LAKE ZONES. NOT EXPECTING MORE THEN A COUPLE OF INCHES FROM ANY OF
THESE SNOW SHOWERS. BY SUNDAY MORNING, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD IN AND LAKE EFFECT WILL COME TO AN END SUNDAY MORNING. THIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WELL TO THE
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
SUNDAY WILL BE THE COOLER DAY, WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS IN THE
AFTERNOON. THEN, WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL SLOWLY INCREASE
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, WITH UPPER 40S
POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAIN PLAYER FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE A DEVELOPING MID-LEVEL VORTEX
SOUTH OF HUDSON BAY WHICH WILL KEEP MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION
EMBEDDED IN SW FLOW ALOFT. AS IS THE CASE WITH THESE SYNOPTIC
SITUATIONS...EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES ROTATING ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE WILL RESULT IN AN ACTIVE WX
PATTERN FOR MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION TOWARDS MID/LATE WEEK.
GFS AND ECMWF DETERMINISTIC PROGS APPEAR TO BE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT TO START OUT THE PERIOD WITH FIRST SHORTWAVE/SFC FRONT
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON WED. WITH ITS
ARRIVAL...EXPECT MAINLY A RA/SN MIX WED NGT BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO
ALL RA BY LATE WED MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. MODELS THEN ADVERTISE
A MORE POTENT DISTURBANCE ON THRU AS SECOND SHORTWAVE ROTATES INTO
THE REGION. AGAIN...EXPECT RA/SN MIX LATE WED/EARLY THU BEFORE
ONCE AGAIN CHANGING OVER TO ALL RA THROUGH THE DAY. MODEL
DIFFERENCES DO APPEAR BY THIS POINT HOWEVER AS GFS PHASES BOTH
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY CORES ACROSS THE TENN RVR
VLY/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BEFORE DEVELOPING A COASTAL LOW BY LATE
THU OFF THE HATTERAS COAST. ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND SHOWS NO
INDICATION OF PHASING AND NO SUGGESTION FOR ANY COASTAL
DEVELOPMENT. IF THE GFS/S SCENARIO WERE TO PAN OUT...FEATURE LOOKS
TO BE A QUICK HITTER WITH MAIN QPF SHIELD REMAINING SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE CWA. FUTURE MODEL RUNS MOST CERTAINLY BARE WATCHING.
NEXT COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON FRI WHICH
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY THE ARRIVAL OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE AND A
CHILLY START FOR NEXT WEEKEND. MODELS SUGGEST H85 TEMPS FALLING TO
NEAR -18C WHICH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A LAKE RESPONSE OFF OF LAKE
ONTARIO IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
1230 PM UPDATE...
MAINLY VFR AT PRESENT. SNOW SHOWERS STILL WILL AFFECT RME AND AVP
WITH THE INITIAL FRONT. CONDITIONS COULD BRIEFLY FALL TO IFR VSBYS
AND MVFR CIGS THE NEXT 2 HOURS.
SFC LOW OVER EAST END OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE ITS SLOW TRACK
EAST THIS AFTN AND EVENING. COLDER AIR COMING IN ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE LOW NOW SETTING OFF LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS IN WRN NY. THESE
WILL MOVE EAST AND AFFECT CENTRAL NY TERMINALS STARTING 21Z. AGAIN
IFR VSBYS MOST LIKELY AT RME WITH MVFR VSBYS AND CIGS REST OF NY
IN SNOW SHOWERS.
TONIGHT WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTING TO NW...CIGS WILL FALL
TO MVFR IN NY. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE ESPECIALLY ITH AND
SYR. LATE TONIGHT WITH NNW FLOW...WAA AND SOME DRIER AIR
CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE WITH ITH AND BGM HOLDING ONTO THE
MVFR CIGS THE LONGEST. ELM RME SYR SHOULD RISE TO VFR AROUND 12Z
SUNDAY.
S TO SW WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KTS SHIFTING TO WEST THIS AFTN AT 10 KTS.
NW WINDS AT 5 TO 8 KTS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
.OUTLOOK...
SUN/MON/TUE MORN...MAINLY VFR. SUNDAY POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS AT ITH
FROM LAKE INDUCED CLOUDS FROM CAYUGA LAKE.
TUE AFTN/THU...MVFR IN MIXED PRECIP.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SLI
NEAR TERM...SLI
SHORT TERM...SLI
LONG TERM...CMG
AVIATION...TAC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
206 PM EST SAT FEB 18 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. A FEW LINGERING
FLURRIES IN THE FINGER LAKES REGION SUNDAY MORNING...BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE BRINGS QUIET WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE CWA
THIS AFTERNOON. IT WILL MAKE IT ACROSS AND WEAK OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
THERE WILL BE SOME SHOWERS WITH THIS SYSTEM, MAINLY IN THE FORM OF
SNOW, BUT SOME AREAS, ESPECIALLY IN NEPA, MAY SEE SOME RAIN.
CURRENTLY, RADAR RETURNS OVER NEPA ARE NOT REFLECTING WHAT IS
BEING REPORTED BY ASOS AT A COUPLE OF SITES. BOTH MSV AND AVP HAD
STRONGER RETURNS PASS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD AND NEITHER REPORTED ANY
PRECIPITATION. ON THE OTHER HAND, RME HAD SOME LIGHTER RETURNS AND
IS REPORTING MODERATE SNOW. SAME WITH ELZ. THIS MAKES FORECASTING
POPS A LITTLE TRICKY. BEST GUESS IS SOME VIRGA, WITH FLURRIES/SPRINKLES
AND ISOLATED SHOWERS. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
THE HRRR DID SHOW THIS TYPE OF RETURNS, SO WILL MODEL POPS AFTER
THAT, AT LEAST AS GUIDANCE FOR TIMING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THIS LOW, AS MENTIONED BEFORE, WILL MOVE ACROSS TONIGHT AND WILL
WEAKEN AS IT DOES. SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL FOLLOW BEHIND IT
AND MAY KICK OFF SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN THE NORTHERN AND FINGER
LAKE ZONES. NOT EXPECTING MORE THEN A COUPLE OF INCHES FROM ANY OF
THESE SNOW SHOWERS. BY SUNDAY MORNING, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD IN AND LAKE EFFECT WILL COME TO AN END SUNDAY MORNING. THIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WELL TO THE
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
SUNDAY WILL BE THE COOLER DAY, WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS IN THE
AFTERNOON. THEN, WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL SLOWLY INCREASE
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, WITH UPPER 40S
POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
3 PM UPDATE...
MODELS SIMILAR. ACTIVE MILD PATTERN CONTINUES. LARGE SFC HIGH
PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PUSH OFF TO THE EAST EARLY
TUESDAY. WEAK COLD FRONT GOES THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
MIXED PRECIPITATION CHANGING TO SNOW. ECMWF FASTER AND STRONGER
BUT STILL NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR A LAKE RESPONSE. THU TO FRI A LARGE
SFC LOW TRACKS EAST JUST TO THE NORTH SO PROBABLY SNOW TO RAIN
THEN BACK TO SNOW. BEHIND THIS STORM NOT PARTICULARLY COLD FOR
MUCH OF A LAKE RESPONSE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. AGAIN SHORT LIVED
COLDER SPELL WITH A ZONAL FLOW AND ABOVE NORMAL UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
1230 PM UPDATE...
MAINLY VFR AT PRESENT. SNOW SHOWERS STILL WILL AFFECT RME AND AVP
WITH THE INITIAL FRONT. CONDITIONS COULD BRIEFLY FALL TO IFR VSBYS
AND MVFR CIGS THE NEXT 2 HOURS.
SFC LOW OVER EAST END OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE ITS SLOW TRACK
EAST THIS AFTN AND EVENING. COLDER AIR COMING IN ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE LOW NOW SETTING OFF LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS IN WRN NY. THESE
WILL MOVE EAST AND AFFECT CENTRAL NY TERMINALS STARTING 21Z. AGAIN
IFR VSBYS MOST LIKELY AT RME WITH MVFR VSBYS AND CIGS REST OF NY
IN SNOW SHOWERS.
TONIGHT WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTING TO NW...CIGS WILL FALL
TO MVFR IN NY. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE ESPECIALLY ITH AND
SYR. LATE TONIGHT WITH NNW FLOW...WAA AND SOME DRIER AIR
CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE WITH ITH AND BGM HOLDING ONTO THE
MVFR CIGS THE LONGEST. ELM RME SYR SHOULD RISE TO VFR AROUND 12Z
SUNDAY.
S TO SW WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KTS SHIFTING TO WEST THIS AFTN AT 10 KTS.
NW WINDS AT 5 TO 8 KTS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
.OUTLOOK...
SUN/MON/TUE MORN...MAINLY VFR. SUNDAY POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS AT ITH
FROM LAKE INDUCED CLOUDS FROM CAYUGA LAKE.
TUE AFTN/THU...MVFR IN MIXED PRECIP.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SLI
NEAR TERM...SLI
SHORT TERM...SLI
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...TAC