Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 02/15/12
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1114 AM MST MON FEB 13 2012
.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO EXPIRE WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE SOUTHWEST AND
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. ALSO INCREASED HIGH TEMPERATURES ALONG THE I-25
CORRIDOR AND EASTERN PLAINS TO MATCH CURRENT TRENDS. -PJC
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1051 AM MST MON FEB 13 2012/
AVIATION...
OTHER THAN SOME AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG IN THE VICINITY
OF KALS THROUGH APPROXIMATELY 20Z/13TH...ANTICIPATE THAT VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE NOTED AT THE KPUB...KCOS AND KALS TAF SITES
FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM MST MON FEB 13 2012/
SHORT TERM...
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
CURRENTLY...SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO EARLY THIS MORNING. AREA
OBSERVATIONS ARE INDICATING A FEW AREAS OF PATCHY FOG OVER PUEBLO
AND EL PASO COUNTIES. WHERE FOG IS OCCURRING...IT CAN BE DENSE SO
CAUTION IS ADVISED WHEN FOG IS ENCOUNTERED. BESIDES FOG...LIGHT
SNOW CONTINUES ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WITH THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS FAVORED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW. RADAR IS INDICATING LIGHT
SNOW OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AS WELL. A FEW ECHOES ARE ALSO
SHOWING UP OVER KIOWA COUNTY...BUT THIS IS LIKELY NOT REACHING THE
GROUND AT THIS TIME.
TODAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EAST INTO KANSAS
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINING ENTRENCHED
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED LIGHT SNOW FOR THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. ANY
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS TODAY WILL TOTAL 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. THE TROUBLE SPOT FOR
THIS AFTERNOON LOOKS LIKE TELLER COUNTY. THE GFS AND NAM ARE
PRINTING OUT A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOWFALL OVER TELLER COUNTY THIS
AFTERNOON WHILE THE HIGHER RESOLUTION WRF RUNS AND HRRR KEEP THE
AREA DRY. KEPT LOW POPS OVER TELLER COUNTY FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LOW CHANCES THERE. ANY SNOWFALL
WILL BE LIGHT WITH ONLY AN INCH OR TWO POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES TODAY
WILL BE THE OTHER ISSUE. GUIDANCE CAME IN VERY WARM...HIGHS WELL
INTO THE 50S. GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER AND HIGH RES MODELS PROJECTING
WEAK NORTH TO EASTERLY FLOW FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
PLAINS...HAVE A FEELING HIGHS WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN THIS. FOR
NOW HAVE HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S FOR THE PLAINS.
THE EXCEPTION WILL LIKELY BE ALONG THE LEE SLOPES OF THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS WHERE DOWNSLOPE WILL LIKELY ADD A FEW DEGREES TO THE HIGHS.
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE
NEXT STORM SYSTEM WHICH IS FORECAST TO DIG ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN.
LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND LIKELY
INCREASE SOME TOWARDS TUESDAY MORNING AS FLOW TRANSITIONS TO
SOUTHWESTERLY. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 20S FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION. 88
LONG TERM...
(TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
.TUES/WED WX SYSTEM A BIT WEAKER...
LATEST SIMULATIONS HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT ON THE INTENSITY OF THE WX
SYSTEM THAT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE TUE/WED TIME PD.
SIMULATIONS ARE NOW A BIT FARTHER SOUTH AND NOT AS "WRAPPED UP" AS
THEY WERE 24H AGO. WE WILL STILL LIKELY SEE SNOWS ALONG THE
CONTDVD BUT THE PRECIP ON THE PLAINS...ESPECIALLY THE PALMER
DVD...LOOKS TO BE QUITE A BIT LESS. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT HIGH POPS
ALONG THE CONTDVD STARTING TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND LASTING THROUGH
THE NIGHT. IT APPEARS THAT THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL LIKELY FALL ON
THE SW FACING SLOPES OF THE SAN JUANS WERE UP TO A FOOT WILL BE
POSSIBLE. WINTER WX HILITES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THIS REGION
LATER TODAY.
PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER THE PIKES PEAK REGION LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND DECREASE BY WED AFTERNOON. THE HEAVY SNOW WHICH
WAS FCST 24H AGO FOR THIS REGION HAS BACKED OFF CONSIDERABLY...AND
NOW IT LOOKS LIKE AMOUNTS WILL BE IN THE 1 TO 2" AMOUNTS...IF
THAT.
LOOKING AT THE REST OF THE FCST...IT STILL APPEARS MOST AREAS WILL
BE DRY FROM THU INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG
THE CONTDVD WERE OCCNL SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD.
TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL STAY ON THE COOL SIDE...WITH MAINLY
40S OVER THE PLAINS AND 20S AND 30S IN THE MTNS. OCCNL MAINLY DRY
COOL FRONTS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT.
/34
AVIATION...
KPUB...PATCHY FOG HAVE DEVELOPED THIS MORNING AROUND THE KPUB
TERMINAL AND HAVE LOWERED VIS TO MVFR. FOG SHOULD DIMINISH AND VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL BY 13Z THIS MORNING. MODELS HINTING AT FOG
DEVELOPING AGAIN TONIGHT AFTER AROUND 04Z.
KALS...CURRENT OBSERVATIONS INDICATE LOW CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER
THE TERMINAL WITH CIGS LOWERING TO 500 FEET. EXPECT THESE LOW CIGS
THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS BY 16Z.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ONCE THE LOW STRATUS DISSIPATE.
KCOS...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. 88
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
81/50
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1051 AM MST MON FEB 13 2012
.AVIATION...
OTHER THAN SOME AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG IN THE VICINITY
OF KALS THROUGH APPROXIMATELY 20Z/13TH...ANTICIPATE THAT VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE NOTED AT THE KPUB...KCOS AND KALS TAF SITES
FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM MST MON FEB 13 2012/
SHORT TERM...
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
CURRENTLY...SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO EARLY THIS MORNING. AREA
OBSERVATIONS ARE INDICATING A FEW AREAS OF PATCHY FOG OVER PUEBLO
AND EL PASO COUNTIES. WHERE FOG IS OCCURRING...IT CAN BE DENSE SO
CAUTION IS ADVISED WHEN FOG IS ENCOUNTERED. BESIDES FOG...LIGHT
SNOW CONTINUES ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WITH THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS FAVORED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW. RADAR IS INDICATING LIGHT
SNOW OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AS WELL. A FEW ECHOES ARE ALSO
SHOWING UP OVER KIOWA COUNTY...BUT THIS IS LIKELY NOT REACHING THE
GROUND AT THIS TIME.
TODAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EAST INTO KANSAS
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINING ENTRENCHED
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED LIGHT SNOW FOR THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. ANY
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS TODAY WILL TOTAL 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. THE TROUBLE SPOT FOR
THIS AFTERNOON LOOKS LIKE TELLER COUNTY. THE GFS AND NAM ARE
PRINTING OUT A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOWFALL OVER TELLER COUNTY THIS
AFTERNOON WHILE THE HIGHER RESOLUTION WRF RUNS AND HRRR KEEP THE
AREA DRY. KEPT LOW POPS OVER TELLER COUNTY FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LOW CHANCES THERE. ANY SNOWFALL
WILL BE LIGHT WITH ONLY AN INCH OR TWO POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES TODAY
WILL BE THE OTHER ISSUE. GUIDANCE CAME IN VERY WARM...HIGHS WELL
INTO THE 50S. GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER AND HIGH RES MODELS PROJECTING
WEAK NORTH TO EASTERLY FLOW FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
PLAINS...HAVE A FEELING HIGHS WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN THIS. FOR
NOW HAVE HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S FOR THE PLAINS.
THE EXCEPTION WILL LIKELY BE ALONG THE LEE SLOPES OF THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS WHERE DOWNSLOPE WILL LIKELY ADD A FEW DEGREES TO THE HIGHS.
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE
NEXT STORM SYSTEM WHICH IS FORECAST TO DIG ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN.
LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND LIKELY
INCREASE SOME TOWARDS TUESDAY MORNING AS FLOW TRANSITIONS TO
SOUTHWESTERLY. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 20S FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION. 88
LONG TERM...
(TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
..TUES/WED WX SYSTEM A BIT WEAKER...
LATEST SIMULATIONS HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT ON THE INTENSITY OF THE WX
SYSTEM THAT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE TUE/WED TIME PD.
SIMULATIONS ARE NOW A BIT FARTHER SOUTH AND NOT AS "WRAPPED UP" AS
THEY WERE 24H AGO. WE WILL STILL LIKELY SEE SNOWS ALONG THE
CONTDVD BUT THE PRECIP ON THE PLAINS...ESPECIALLY THE PALMER
DVD...LOOKS TO BE QUITE A BIT LESS. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT HIGH POPS
ALONG THE CONTDVD STARTING TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND LASTING THROUGH
THE NIGHT. IT APPEARS THAT THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL LIKELY FALL ON
THE SW FACING SLOPES OF THE SAN JUANS WERE UP TO A FOOT WILL BE
POSSIBLE. WINTER WX HILITES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THIS REGION
LATER TODAY.
PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER THE PIKES PEAK REGION LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND DECREASE BY WED AFTERNOON. THE HEAVY SNOW WHICH
WAS FCST 24H AGO FOR THIS REGION HAS BACKED OFF CONSIDERABLY...AND
NOW IT LOOKS LIKE AMOUNTS WILL BE IN THE 1 TO 2" AMOUNTS...IF
THAT.
LOOKING AT THE REST OF THE FCST...IT STILL APPEARS MOST AREAS WILL
BE DRY FROM THU INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG
THE CONTDVD WERE OCCNL SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD.
TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL STAY ON THE COOL SIDE...WITH MAINLY
40S OVER THE PLAINS AND 20S AND 30S IN THE MTNS. OCCNL MAINLY DRY
COOL FRONTS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT.
/34
AVIATION...
KPUB...PATCHY FOG HAVE DEVELOPED THIS MORNING AROUND THE KPUB
TERMINAL AND HAVE LOWERED VIS TO MVFR. FOG SHOULD DIMINISH AND VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL BY 13Z THIS MORNING. MODELS HINTING AT FOG
DEVELOPING AGAIN TONIGHT AFTER AROUND 04Z.
KALS...CURRENT OBSERVATIONS INDICATE LOW CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER
THE TERMINAL WITH CIGS LOWERING TO 500 FEET. EXPECT THESE LOW CIGS
THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS BY 16Z.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ONCE THE LOW STRATUS DISSIPATE.
KCOS...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. 88
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
353 AM MST MON FEB 13 2012
.SHORT TERM...
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
CURRENTLY...SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO EARLY THIS MORNING. AREA
OBSERVATIONS ARE INDICATING A FEW AREAS OF PATCHY FOG OVER PUEBLO
AND EL PASO COUNTIES. WHERE FOG IS OCCURRING...IT CAN BE DENSE SO
CAUTION IS ADVISED WHEN FOG IS ENCOUNTERED. BESIDES FOG...LIGHT
SNOW CONTINUES ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WITH THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS FAVORED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW. RADAR IS INDICATING LIGHT
SNOW OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AS WELL. A FEW ECHOES ARE ALSO
SHOWING UP OVER KIOWA COUNTY...BUT THIS IS LIKELY NOT REACHING THE
GROUND AT THIS TIME.
TODAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EAST INTO KANSAS
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINING ENTRENCHED
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED LIGHT SNOW FOR THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. ANY
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS TODAY WILL TOTAL 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. THE TROUBLE SPOT FOR
THIS AFTERNOON LOOKS LIKE TELLER COUNTY. THE GFS AND NAM ARE
PRINTING OUT A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOWFALL OVER TELLER COUNTY THIS
AFTERNOON WHILE THE HIGHER RESOLUTION WRF RUNS AND HRRR KEEP THE
AREA DRY. KEPT LOW POPS OVER TELLER COUNTY FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LOW CHANCES THERE. ANY SNOWFALL
WILL BE LIGHT WITH ONLY AN INCH OR TWO POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES TODAY
WILL BE THE OTHER ISSUE. GUIDANCE CAME IN VERY WARM...HIGHS WELL
INTO THE 50S. GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER AND HIGH RES MODELS PROJECTING
WEAK NORTH TO EASTERLY FLOW FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
PLAINS...HAVE A FEELING HIGHS WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN THIS. FOR
NOW HAVE HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S FOR THE PLAINS.
THE EXCEPTION WILL LIKELY BE ALONG THE LEE SLOPES OF THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS WHERE DOWNSLOPE WILL LIKELY ADD A FEW DEGREES TO THE HIGHS.
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE
NEXT STORM SYSTEM WHICH IS FORECAST TO DIG ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN.
LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND LIKELY
INCREASE SOME TOWARDS TUESDAY MORNING AS FLOW TRANSITIONS TO
SOUTHWESTERLY. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 20S FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION. MOZLEY
.LONG TERM...
(TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
...TUES/WED WX SYSTEM A BIT WEAKER...
LATEST SIMULATIONS HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT ON THE INTENSITY OF THE WX
SYSTEM THAT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE TUE/WED TIME PD.
SIMULATIONS ARE NOW A BIT FARTHER SOUTH AND NOT AS "WRAPPED UP" AS
THEY WERE 24H AGO. WE WILL STILL LIKELY SEE SNOWS ALONG THE
CONTDVD BUT THE PRECIP ON THE PLAINS...ESPECIALLY THE PALMER
DVD...LOOKS TO BE QUITE A BIT LESS. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT HIGH POPS
ALONG THE CONTDVD STARTING TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND LASTING THROUGH
THE NIGHT. IT APPEARS THAT THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL LIKELY FALL ON
THE SW FACING SLOPES OF THE SAN JUANS WERE UP TO A FOOT WILL BE
POSSIBLE. WINTER WX HILITES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THIS REGION
LATER TODAY.
PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER THE PIKES PEAK REGION LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND DECREASE BY WED AFTERNOON. THE HEAVY SNOW WHICH
WAS FCST 24H AGO FOR THIS REGION HAS BACKED OFF CONSIDERABLY...AND
NOW IT LOOKS LIKE AMOUNTS WILL BE IN THE 1 TO 2" AMOUNTS...IF
THAT.
LOOKING AT THE REST OF THE FCST...IT STILL APPEARS MOST AREAS WILL
BE DRY FROM THU INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG
THE CONTDVD WERE OCCNL SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD.
TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL STAY ON THE COOL SIDE...WITH MAINLY
40S OVER THE PLAINS AND 20S AND 30S IN THE MTNS. OCCNL MAINLY DRY
COOL FRONTS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT.
/HODANISH
&&
.AVIATION...
KPUB...PATCHY FOG HAVE DEVELOPED THIS MORNING AROUND THE KPUB
TERMINAL AND HAVE LOWERED VIS TO MVFR. FOG SHOULD DIMINISH AND VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL BY 13Z THIS MORNING. MODELS HINTING AT FOG
DEVELOPING AGAIN TONIGHT AFTER AROUND 04Z.
KALS...CURRENT OBSERVATIONS INDICATE LOW CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER
THE TERMINAL WITH CIGS LOWERING TO 500 FEET. EXPECT THESE LOW CIGS
THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS BY 16Z.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ONCE THE LOW STRATUS DISSIPATE.
KCOS...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. MOZLEY
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR
COZ058>060-066.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR COZ068.
&&
$$
88/34
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
940 PM EST TUE FEB 14 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
SEVERAL WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION OVERNIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BRINGING MAINLY CLOUDY
SKIES...ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN
SHOWERS. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL
BRING ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 940 PM EST...LATEST 00Z NAM MODEL GUIDANCE AND 3KM HRRR IS
SHOWING LITTLE PRECIP ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT. CURRENTLY...THE
BEST RADAR RETURNS ARE SEEN ON THE KBGM RADAR ACROSS NORTHEAST PA
AND THE SOUTHWESTERN CATSKILLS. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...THE 00Z
KALY SOUNDING SHOWS VERY DRY AIR AT LOW LEVELS...AND WEAK FORCING
DUE TO A SHORTWAVE ALOFT WILL ONLY ALLOW FOR WIDELY SCT/ISOLD
SHOWERS. WHILE THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN IN
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA RIGHT NOW...TEMPS SHOULD COOL OFF
ENOUGH TO ALLOW P-TYPE TO BE SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...QPF WILL ONLY BE A HUNDREDTH OR TWO AT
MOST...WITH THE BEST CHC OF SEEING THIS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE CATSKILLS AND PERHAPS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AS WELL.
EVEN THOUGH TEMPS IN SOME AREAS HAVE DROPPED OFF THIS
EVENING...THICKER CLOUD COVER SHOULD SLOW THE RATE OF FALLING
TEMPS AND OUR PROJECTED MIN TEMPS STILL LOOK GOOD...WITH MID TO UPPER
20S IN MOST AREAS...TO AROUND 30 FOR THE CAPITAL REGION AND MID
HUDSON VALLEY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WED-WED NT...ONE FINAL SHORTWAVE...AND AREA OF WEAK SFC
CONVERGENCE WILL MOVE ACROSS DURING THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS OF RAIN OR WET
SNOW POSSIBLE. IN ITS WAKE...EXPECT CLOUDS TO LINGER INTO THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS. THEN...EXPECT CLEARING TO DEVELOP FROM SW TO
NE LATER WED EVE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LIGHT WINDS...AND
CLEARING SKIES SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL TO LOWER LEVELS THAN
TONIGHT...WITH MINS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REACH CLOSE TO THE
COOLER MAV MOS...GENERALLY 20-25 IN MOST VALLEYS...AND TEENS
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND.
THU-THU NT...NEXT FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE
SOUTHWEST/WEST DURING THURSDAY...AS ONE WEAK LOW TRACKS INTO AND
ACROSS SE CANADA...WITH AN EVEN WEAKER SFC LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST AND TRACKING ENE. MODELS HAVE DECREASED OVERALL
QPF CONSIDERABLY ACROSS THE REGION...WITH GENERALLY 0.15-0.25
EXPECTED...PERHAPS LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY REGION. P-TYPE MAY INITIALLY BE RAIN IN
VALLEYS...AND A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS EARLY THU
AFTERNOON...TRANSITIONING TO MAINLY WET SNOW BY THU EVE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. GIVEN THE LIGHTER QPF...SNOWFALL ACCUMS SHOULD
ALSO BE LESS...PERHAPS 1-3 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY...AND GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS
ELSEWHERE...WITH MOST ACCUMS IN VALLEYS OCCURRING ON COLDER
SURFACES. ONE THING TO WATCH FOR WILL BE HOW QUICKLY THE PRECIP
DEVELOPS THU AFTERNOON...AS WE HAVE SEEN WITH OTHER EVENTS THIS
SEASON THUS FAR...THIS COULD CHANGE OVER TO SNOW FAIRLY QUICKLY IF
A DECENT BURST OF WARM ADVECTION/LIFT PASSES THROUGH...WHICH COULD
PRODUCE MINOR...SLUSHY ACCUMS EVEN ON ROAD SURFACES THU EVE.
HAVE GENERALLY INDICATED THU MAXES IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
IN VALLEYS AND MID 30S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH FAIRLY
UNIFORM MINS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S FOR THU NT.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY QUITE WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH
TEMPS STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY TRENDING TO MORE
SEASONABLE LEVELS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
ON FRIDAY THE PRIMARY LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH QUEBEC WHILE THE
SECONDARY LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM WELL SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND TO
SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA. STILL EXPECT SOME LINGERING RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA MAINLY FOR AREAS FROM
THE NORTH SIDE OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY TO SOUTHERN VERMONT AND POINTS
NORTH. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW AS A 280 DEG WIND
FLOW OFF LAKE ONTARIO WILL RESULT IN A LAKE ENHANCED BAND REACHING
NORTHERN HERKIMER AND FAR NORTHWEST HAMILTON COUNTY. TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY THE LAKE EFFECT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ACROSS NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY AND EXTREME NORTHWEST HAMILTON
COUNTY ALTHOUGH THE FLOW MAY GET DISRUPTED FOR A TIME AS A SECONDARY
TROUGH DROPS INTO THE REGION SATURDAY MORNING. EXPECT LOWS FRIDAY
NIGHT IN THE UPPER TEENS TO UPPER 20S AND HIGHS ON SATURDAY RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S NORTHWEST TO THE MID 40S SOUTHEAST.
THE PERIOD FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY LOOKS MAINLY DRY AND
SEASONABLE WITH THE GGEM...ECMWF AND GFS ALL TAKING THE SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM SUNDAY MORNING OUT TO SEA OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WHICH
SHOULD BE TOO FAR SOUTH AND EAST EVEN TO IMPACT OUR FAR SOUTHERN
ZONES. EXPECT LOWS DURING THIS PERIOD TO GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE
SINGLE DIGITS NORTHWEST TO UPPER TEENS TO LOW TO MID 20S SOUTH AND
EAST. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S
NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S SOUTHEAST.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD ENDING AT 00Z THURSDAY. THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
IMPACTING OUR REGION TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BRING NOTHING MORE
THAN A FEW FLURRIES TO THE TAF SITES AS THE LOWER LEVELS REMAIN
VERY DRY AS INDICATED BY THE KALY 00Z SOUNDING. IN ADDITION
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE HUDSON VALLEY REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID
20S. FOR THE KGFL...KALB AND KPOU TAFS HAVE PLACED VCSH IN THE
TAFS UP UNTIL 06Z WITH CIGS GENERALLY OVC050-060. THE POSSIBILITY
OF FLURRIES WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT
AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM TRACKS SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA...THE
POSSIBILITY OF FLURRIES WILL END WITH CLOUDS REMAINING IN PLACE
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD...GENERALLY BKN-OVC040-050.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD AND THEN BECOME SOUTH AT 3-6 KTS WEDNESDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED AM...VFR. SLGT CHC -SHRA/-SHSN.
WED PM-THU AM...VFR. NO SIG WX.
THU PM-FRI...MVFR/IFR. -RA/-SN LIKELY.
FRI NT-SUN...VFR. SLGT CHC -SHSN/-SHRA.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SOME
GAGES WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE ICE EFFECTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
OF THE ALBANY HYDRO SERVICE AREA /HSA/.
SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW AND/OR RAIN SHOWERS.
HOWEVER...LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN UNDER ONE
TENTH OF AN INCH DURING THIS TIME.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD BRING RAIN AND/OR SNOW TO THE
REGION LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH GENERALLY LIGHT TO
MODERATE AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KL
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...NAS
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TALLAHASSEE FL
805 PM EST Tue Feb 14 2012
.UPDATE...
00Z water vapor and H4 RUC analysis shows a near zonal or slightly
ridged upper level pattern in place across the northern Gulf Coast.
Middle and upper levels are actually quite dry with the majority of
southern stream moisture remaining to the south of our forecast
area. This airmass can be seen well in the 00Z KTLH sounding which
shows an extremely dry profile above 800mb. Above 800mb, dewpoint
depressions are often 45C or more! Now, below 800mb it is a
different story. Sounding shows a well saturated profile which is
not a surprise seeing all the low status/drizzle reports the past
several hours.
At the surface,
Nearly stationary frontal boundary is aligned across the area. Hand
analysis puts the approx frontal position as of 00Z just north of
Panama City eastward along or just north of the I-10 corridor. Not a
huge difference across this boundary, however do see a slight
decrease in dewpoints and a wind shift to lighter and more northerly
flow. Main influence on our local weather this evening is the low
level upglide over this boundary which is supporting the widespread
lower stratus and areas of drizzle/light showers across the Big
Bend/South-Central GA zones.
Rest of Tonight,
Weak surface boundary is forecast to slide slowly eastward into the
early morning hours. GFS/NAM both show the best isentropic upglide
along the 290-300K surfaces coincident with swath of low
condensation pressure deficits residing over Apalachee Bay...the Big
Bend zones and northeastward to the GA I-75 corridor. Feel these
guidance members are on the right track based on regional radar
analysis which shows this swath to be the main area of drizzle. Not
expecting much more than drizzle the rest of the evening as the warm
cloud layer (> 0C) will prevent heterogeneous nucleation processes.
As we head through the night, this swath of low level upglide is
progged to shift eastward. Appears that the best chances for drizzle
within our forecast area will have shifted to only the Suwannee
River Valley by the early morning hours, and then completely east of
our zones as we approach sunrise. Once the low level lift has
subsided, the atmospheric profile of dry sinking air over-top of a
saturated boundary layer highly suggests a continuation of lower
stratus and an increasing coverage of fog. Will continue to
highlight to progression in the grids.
The lower stratus and fog will likely be quite stubborn during the
morning hours of Wednesday, but does appear that we will see
improving conditions in terms of sun potential by the time we reach
the afternoon hours.
&&
.MARINE...
Cautionary level winds over the eastern marine legs are expected to
diminish below headline criteria overnight. A more easterly flow
will develop across marine area on Wednesday, and then shift more
onshore Wednesday Night. Winds and seas may elevate to advisory
levels once again over the Panhandle waters late Wed night into
Thurs ahead of a cold front. Winds will shift to become offshore in
the wake of the front Thursday night through Friday.
&&
.AVIATION...
A rather pessimistic aviation forecast this evening as expecting
widespread IFR/LIFR conditions overnight. A few areas such as
KABY...and KVLD are still holding onto MVFR cigs, but expect these
to lower during the next few hours. All terminals are forecast under
IFR by midnight. These restrictions are likely to linger through at
least the first few daylight hours. Will begin to bring restrictions
back up to MVFR by 14-15Z and then scatter out all terminals back to
VFR for the afternoon hours.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 53 75 60 74 58 / 40 10 20 70 30
Panama City 55 74 64 74 58 / 20 10 30 70 20
Dothan 49 72 62 74 53 / 10 10 40 60 20
Albany 48 71 60 74 52 / 10 10 30 60 20
Valdosta 54 75 58 75 58 / 50 10 10 60 40
Cross City 55 78 58 76 62 / 50 10 10 50 50
Apalachicola 56 72 62 72 59 / 40 10 20 70 30
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
GA...None.
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
MROCZKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1257 PM CST MON FEB 13 2012
.UPDATE...
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO CLIMB IN THE EASTERN CWFA AND ELSEWHERE
WHERE THE SNOW IS EXTREMELY LIGHT.
RUC TRENDS SHOW THE STRONGEST LIFT/FORCING IS GENERALLY ABOVE OR
BELOW THE FAVORED DENDRITIC ZONE. THIS EXPLAINS THE VERY SMALL
NATURE OF THE SNOWFLAKES THAT HAVE BEEN OBSERVED OR REPORTED. SUCH
SMALL FLAKES COMBINED WITH THE WARM TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN SOMEWHAT LOWER SNOW AMOUNTS. SO FAR MOST SNOWFALL
REPORTS HAVE BEEN BETWEEN A TRACE AND ONE HALF INCH.
WATER VAPOR AND RUC TRENDS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE WAA WIND OF
VORTICITY ROTATING OUT OF THE CWFA BY MID AFTERNOON WHICH MAY
RESULT IN A LULL IN OVERALL SNOWFALL. HOWEVER...THE RUC ALSO HAS
AN EVEN WEAKER WAVE WITH VORT MAXES THAT ROTATES THROUGH DURING
THE SECOND HALF OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WATER VAPOR
SUGGESTS THIS BUT IT IS VERY SUBTLE IN NATURE.
BASED ON THIS A MAJORITY OF THE SNOWFALL FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL
HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED BY THE EVENING COMMUTE.
..08..
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CST MON FEB 13 2012/
AVIATION...
CONDITIONS RANGE FROM VFR TO MVFR BASED ON THE BANDED NATURE OF
THE PRECIPITATION. LOCALIZED BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS ARE ALSO
OCCURRING IN THE HEAVIER SNOW BANDS. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
DETERIORATE TO MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 00Z/14 BUT BRIEF
PERIODS OF VFR ARE POSSIBLE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR FZDZ AND SEVERAL SITES IN WESTERN IOWA ARE REPORTING
UP FOR PRESENT WX. BASED ON THIS THE START TIME FOR FZDZ HAS BEEN
MOVED FORWARD WITH THE 18Z TAFS.
.08..
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1130 AM CST MON FEB 13 2012
.AVIATION...
CONDITIONS RANGE FROM VFR TO MVFR BASED ON THE BANDED NATURE OF
THE PRECIPITATION. LOCALIZED BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS ARE ALSO
OCCURRING IN THE HEAVIER SNOW BANDS. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
DETERIORATE TO MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 00Z/14 BUT BRIEF
PERIODS OF VFR ARE POSSIBLE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR FZDZ AND SEVERAL SITES IN WESTERN IOWA ARE REPORTING
UP FOR PRESENT WX. BASED ON THIS THE START TIME FOR FZDZ HAS BEEN
MOVED FORWARD WITH THE 18Z TAFS.
..08..
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1047 AM CST MON FEB 13 2012/
UPDATE...
THE FCST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS.
THE INITIAL BURST OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
WING OF VORTICITY WITH A WEAK WAVE. RUC TRENDS HAVE THIS VORT
LOBE ROTATING INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. BASED
ON OBSERVATIONS AND SNOW AMOUNTS UPSTREAM...THIS VORT LOBE WILL
LIKELY ACCOUNT FOR ONE THIRD TO 40 PERCENT OF THE TOTAL SNOWFALL
FOR THIS STORM SYSTEM.
RUC TRENDS BRING IN SOME ADDITIONAL VORT MAXES ASSOCIATED WITH
ANOTHER ALBEIT WEAKER WAVE ALOFT THAT SHOULD ALLOW LIGHT SNOW TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND GIVE SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS.
OVERALL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH SUNSET SHOULD RANGE FROM ABOUT
ONE HALF OF AN INCH TO JUST OVER AN INCH.
TONIGHT THE MAIN WAVE IS PROGGED TO ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA
BRINGING SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW. HOWEVER...FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW
DRYING OUT OCCURRING ALOFT SO THE POTENTIAL FOR FZDZ APPEARS
VALID. TIMING THE DRYING ALOFT TONIGHT WILL BE THE KEY TO WHEN THE
FZDZ BEGINS.
.08..
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1047 AM CST MON FEB 13 2012
.UPDATE...
THE FCST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS.
THE INITIAL BURST OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
WING OF VORTICITY WITH A WEAK WAVE. RUC TRENDS HAVE THIS VORT
LOBE ROTATING INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. BASED
ON OBSERVATIONS AND SNOW AMOUNTS UPSTREAM...THIS VORT LOBE WILL
LIKELY ACCOUNT FOR ONE THIRD TO 40 PERCENT OF THE TOTAL SNOWFALL
FOR THIS STORM SYSTEM.
RUC TRENDS BRING IN SOME ADDITIONAL VORT MAXES ASSOCIATED WITH
ANOTHER ALBEIT WEAKER WAVE ALOFT THAT SHOULD ALLOW LIGHT SNOW TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND GIVE SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS.
OVERALL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH SUNSET SHOULD RANGE FROM ABOUT
ONE HALF OF AN INCH TO JUST OVER AN INCH.
TONIGHT THE MAIN WAVE IS PROGGED TO ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA
BRINGING SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW. HOWEVER...FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW
DRYING OUT OCCURRING ALOFT SO THE POTENTIAL FOR FZDZ APPEARS
VALID. TIMING THE DRYING ALOFT TONIGHT WILL BE THE KEY TO WHEN THE
FZDZ BEGINS.
..08..
&&
.AVIATION...
CONDITIONS RANGE FROM VFR TO IFR IN BANDS OF -SN WITH THE WINTER
STORM. RADAR SHOWS ANOTHER BAND MOVING NORTHEAST FROM MISSOURI
AND SOUTHERN IOWA WHICH SHOULD GIVE ANOTHER BURST OF -SN AND IFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH 00Z. AFT 00Z/14 FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DRYING
OUT ALOFT DVLPG WHICH SHOULD ALLOW -FZDZ TO DVLP.
..08..
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS DODGE CITY KS
531 PM CST TUE FEB 14 2012
...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR THE 00Z TAFS...
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CST TUE FEB 14 2012
THE CHALLENGE IN THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE
TEMPERATURES/PRECIPITATION TYPE AND WHERE THE HEAVIEST ACCUMULATION
OF PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR.
TONIGHT...A SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER FAR
SOUTHEAST COLORADO THROUGH THE EVENING AND WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
RESPOND OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WIND DIRECTION WILL ACTUALLY BE
A COLD ADVECTION WIND FROM THE WESTERN OKLAHOMA COLD POOL, WHICH IS
SOMETHING YOU DON`T SEE EVERY DAY. THIS IS VERY HIGH-RELATIVE
HUMIDITY AIR AS THE TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS DOWN THERE IN THE
COLD POOL ARE BASICALLY 0 OR 1 DEGREE FAHRENHEIT...EVEN AT DIURNAL
MAXIMUM. ON THE SOUTHEAST WINDS...THIS AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE DDC FORECAST AREA. ALL
SHORT-RANGE MODELS ARE VERY AGGRESSIVE AT DENSE FOG FORMATION AFTER
03Z AND BASED ON THE OBSERVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON UPSTREAM IN WESTERN
OKLAHOMA...IT IS VERY JUSTIFIED. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND INSERTED DENSE
FOG INTO THE GRIDS SOUTHEAST OF A LIBERAL TO CIMARRON TO LACROSSE
LINE. THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IS A BIT LESS FARTHER
NORTHWEST AND THE GENERATION OF PRECIPITATION AFTER MIDNIGHT MAY
PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG FORMATION NORTH OF THIS LINE.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ON INCREASING WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
UPPER LOW AFTER ABOUT 04Z. THIS IS ABOUT THE TIME POPS WILL RAMP UP
IN THE GRIDS FROM 20 PERCENT TO ABOUT 60 PERCENT OVERNIGHT. ALL THE
MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT A SIGNIFICANT WARM LAYER ALOFT, ALBEIT DRY,
EARLY ON. THE PRECIPITATION TYPE IS EXPECTED TO BE RAIN
SHOWERS...HOWEVER THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE WILL BE DROPPING SLOWLY
DOWN INTO THE MID 30S AND LIKELY STOPPING IN THE 33-36F RANGE ON
INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION AND THE REALIZATION OF LOW STRATUS AND
AREAS/WIDESPREAD FOG. AS A RESULT...THE UPDATED OFFICIAL FORECAST
WILL REFLECT LIQUID PRECIPITATION (NOT FREEZING) FOR AREAS SOUTHEAST
OF A SYRACUSE TO SCOTT CITY TO WAKEENEY LINE (THE ENTIRE DDC
FORECAST AREA). THAT BEING SAID...SOME SCATTERED SLEET SHOWERS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT...AND IN THE FAR WEST AND NORTHWEST WILL INCLUDE
MENTION OF SLEET.
TOMORROW...AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES...700MB FRONTOGENESIS WILL BE
INCREASING...AND THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
STRATIFIED IN NATURE ALONG THE 700MB BAROCLINIC ZONE. THE BEST AREA
FOR FRONTOGENETIC PRECIPITATION WILL BE FROM THE
ELKHART-JOHNSON-SYRACUSE AREAS NORTHEAST TOWARD ULYSSES TO GARDEN
CITY...AND EVENTUALLY BY AFTERNOON THE DIGHTON-NESS CITY-WAKEENEY
AREAS. FARTHER SOUTH OF THIS AXIS...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AND POPS WILL BE IN THE 20-40 PERCENT
RANGE. WITHIN THE ZONE OF 700MB FRONTOGENESIS...THE LOWER
TROPOSPHERIC THERMAL PROFILES WILL BE COOLING TO SUPPORT SNOW AT THE
SURFACE. AT AROUND DAYBREAK...THE SNOW LINE SHOULD EXTEND FROM
ROUGHLY ELKHART TO LAKIN TO SCOTT CITY. BY LATE MORNING...THE RAIN
IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW ALONG ROUGHLY A HUGOTON TO
CIMARRON TO NESS CITY AXIS...AND BY MID-AFTERNOON ALONG ROUGHLY A
MINNEOLA TO LARNED LINE.
SNOW INTENSITY WITHIN THE STRONGEST ZONE OF FRONTOGENESIS WILL
LIKELY BE ABOUT A HALF INCH PER HOUR RATE, BUT THIS RATE SHOULD NOT
LAST VERY LONG AT ANY ONE LOCATION. GIVEN WARM SURFACES AND DIURNAL
TIMING OF THE EVENT...ROAD SURFACES WILL PROBABLY BE OKAY IN MOST
AREAS. SLUSHY TO SPOTTY SNOWPACKED ROADS CAN BE EXPECTED IF THE
SNOW RATES ARE MORE THAN EXPECTED AND/OR LAST LONGER THAN EXPECTED
IN ANY ONE LOCATION FROM MID MORNING THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. AN
AVERAGE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION TOTAL OF ONE HALF TO ONE INCH
CONTINUES TO BE IN THE FORECAST BUT A FEW 2 INCH AMOUNTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY FARTHER NORTHWEST FROM ROUGHLY LAKIN TO
DIGHTON TO WAKEENEY...AS THE MID LEVEL CYCLONE TRACKS FROM LIBERAL
TO GREAT BEND DURING THE DAY.
TOMORROW NIGHT...WHATEVER PRECIPITATION REMAINS EARLY IN THE EVENING
WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES AND EXITING QUICKLY...SO
MUCH OF THIS TIME FRAME WILL BE TRANQUIL AS A SURFACE HIGH SETTLES
IN AND WINDS DECREASE QUITE A BIT. LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS A
CHALLENGE AND A LOT WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH SNOW FELL AND
ACCUMULATED. IF AN INCH OR TWO OF FRESH SNOWFALL STILL REMAINS ON
THE GROUND AFTER SUNSET...THEN TEMPERATURES WILL SURELY FALL INTO
THE UPPER TEENS...HOWEVER IF THERE IS A LOT OF MELT GOING ON AS THE
SNOW FALLS WITH NOT MUCH LEFT ON THE GROUND BY SUNSET...THEN LOWS
WILL BE WARMER (LOWER TO MID 20S).
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CST TUE FEB 14 2012
THURSDAY:
WEDNESDAYS UPPER LEVEL WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING WELL TO THE
EAST OF THE FA ON THURSDAY WITH A FLAT MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW
PATTERN LEFT IN ITS WAKE. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE
ACROSS THE PLAINS. WITH SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
SYSTEM, WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY NEAR CLIMO.
FRIDAY/SATURDAY:
KANSAS WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING
ACROSS MEXICO AND A BROAD UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE UPPER MIDWEST
SYSTEM WILL CAUSE THE WEAK TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS
THE STATE, RESULTING IN A WEAK WIND SHIFT. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE A BIT MORE BY THE END OF THE BUSINESS WEEK WITH LOW 50S DEG
F EXPECTED.
SUNDAY:
HAVE KEPT THE ALLBLEND POPS SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
TURNS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AND A WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN ENSUES.
THESE POPS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE
BREEZY AS 850 HPA WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 35 KT ON BOTH GFS/ECMWF
PLUS DECENT LEE SURFACE TROUGHING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UL
DISTURBANCE. HAVE INCREASED WINDS ABOVE THE ALLBLEND AS A RESULT.
THE ECMWF IS LESS AMPLIFIED WITH THE WAVE THAN COMPARED TO THE GFS
AND WITH SLIGHTLY WEAKER DYNAMICS GOING INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE
HIGHEST POPS ARE ALONG INTERSTATE 70 AND LESS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS.
MONDAY ONWARDS:
THE FORECAST BECOMES A BIT MUDDLED MONDAY AND PARTICULARLY INTO
TUESDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A LARGE AND BAGGY TROUGH ACROSS
THE PLAINS. THE ECMWF IS MORE BROAD WITH THE 500 HPA PATTERN THAN
COMPARED TO THE GFS. THIS WOULD RESULT IN A DRY WESTERLY FLOW
PATTERN ACROSS KANSAS...SOMETHING THAT IS NOT TOO CONDUCIVE TO
BRINGING PRECIPITATION HERE. AS A RESULT, HAVE LIMITED POPS BELOW 15
PERCENT AND GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 524 PM CST TUE FEB 14 2012
HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN AND LOWER ACROSS SOUTHWEST
KANSAS THIS EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS
EASTERN ARIZONIA/FAR WESTERN NEW MEXICO. THERE MAY EVEN BE A FEW
SHOWERS DEVELOPING TOWARDS MIDNIGHT AT HAYS AS 850MB WARM AIR
ADVECTION IMPROVES. TEMPERATURE PROFILES AT HAYS INDICATED THE
ATMOSHERE WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR MAINLY RAINSHOWERS EARLY TONIGHT
BUT UNABLE TO RULE OUT A PERIOD OF SLEET AS THE ATMOSHERE BEGINS
TO COOL EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
IMPROVES ON EARLY WEDNESDAY THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT ALL TAF
SITES WILL IMPROVE. RAIN CHANGIN TO SNOW WILL BE LIKELY AT ALL
TERMINALS AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY.
A PERSISTANT SOUTHEAST FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL DRAW HIGHER LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE BACK INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS EARLY TONIGHT. AS THE
LOW LEVELS SATURATE...STATUS AND FOG STILL APPEARS LIKELY. LATEST
HRRR AND RUC STILL POINTS AT DDC HAVING THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR
DENSE FOG BUT VISIBLITIES FALLING TO LESS THAN ONE MILE AT TIMES
AT GCK AND HYS. THE ONSET OF THE LOW STATUS AND FOG IS EXPECTED TO
SPREAD INTO THE DDC AREA BY 04Z WITH VSBYS FALLING TO LESS THAN
ONE MILE BY MIDNIGHT AT GCK AND HYS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 35 38 25 47 / 40 70 40 0
GCK 34 38 22 47 / 60 70 30 0
EHA 30 43 23 48 / 40 30 10 0
LBL 33 45 24 49 / 20 30 20 0
HYS 33 36 22 45 / 60 70 40 0
P28 34 47 28 49 / 20 40 20 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY
FOR KSZ066-078>081-087>090.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...UMSCHEID
SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM....SUGDEN
AVIATION...BURGERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
525 PM CST TUE FEB 14 2012
...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR THE 00Z TAFS...
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CST TUE FEB 14 2012
THE CHALLENGE IN THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE
TEMPERATURES/PRECIPITATION TYPE AND WHERE THE HEAVIEST ACCUMULATION
OF PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR.
TONIGHT...A SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER FAR
SOUTHEAST COLORADO THROUGH THE EVENING AND WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
RESPOND OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WIND DIRECTION WILL ACTUALLY BE
A COLD ADVECTION WIND FROM THE WESTERN OKLAHOMA COLD POOL, WHICH IS
SOMETHING YOU DON`T SEE EVERY DAY. THIS IS VERY HIGH-RELATIVE
HUMIDITY AIR AS THE TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS DOWN THERE IN THE
COLD POOL ARE BASICALLY 0 OR 1 DEGREE FAHRENHEIT...EVEN AT DIURNAL
MAXIMUM. ON THE SOUTHEAST WINDS...THIS AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE DDC FORECAST AREA. ALL
SHORT-RANGE MODELS ARE VERY AGGRESSIVE AT DENSE FOG FORMATION AFTER
03Z AND BASED ON THE OBSERVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON UPSTREAM IN WESTERN
OKLAHOMA...IT IS VERY JUSTIFIED. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND INSERTED DENSE
FOG INTO THE GRIDS SOUTHEAST OF A LIBERAL TO CIMARRON TO LACROSSE
LINE. THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IS A BIT LESS FARTHER
NORTHWEST AND THE GENERATION OF PRECIPITATION AFTER MIDNIGHT MAY
PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG FORMATION NORTH OF THIS LINE.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ON INCREASING WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
UPPER LOW AFTER ABOUT 04Z. THIS IS ABOUT THE TIME POPS WILL RAMP UP
IN THE GRIDS FROM 20 PERCENT TO ABOUT 60 PERCENT OVERNIGHT. ALL THE
MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT A SIGNIFICANT WARM LAYER ALOFT, ALBEIT DRY,
EARLY ON. THE PRECIPITATION TYPE IS EXPECTED TO BE RAIN
SHOWERS...HOWEVER THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE WILL BE DROPPING SLOWLY
DOWN INTO THE MID 30S AND LIKELY STOPPING IN THE 33-36F RANGE ON
INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION AND THE REALIZATION OF LOW STRATUS AND
AREAS/WIDESPREAD FOG. AS A RESULT...THE UPDATED OFFICIAL FORECAST
WILL REFLECT LIQUID PRECIPITATION (NOT FREEZING) FOR AREAS SOUTHEAST
OF A SYRACUSE TO SCOTT CITY TO WAKEENEY LINE (THE ENTIRE DDC
FORECAST AREA). THAT BEING SAID...SOME SCATTERED SLEET SHOWERS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT...AND IN THE FAR WEST AND NORTHWEST WILL INCLUDE
MENTION OF SLEET.
TOMORROW...AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES...700MB FRONTOGENESIS WILL BE
INCREASING...AND THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
STRATIFIED IN NATURE ALONG THE 700MB BAROCLINIC ZONE. THE BEST AREA
FOR FRONTOGENETIC PRECIPITATION WILL BE FROM THE
ELKHART-JOHNSON-SYRACUSE AREAS NORTHEAST TOWARD ULYSSES TO GARDEN
CITY...AND EVENTUALLY BY AFTERNOON THE DIGHTON-NESS CITY-WAKEENEY
AREAS. FARTHER SOUTH OF THIS AXIS...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AND POPS WILL BE IN THE 20-40 PERCENT
RANGE. WITHIN THE ZONE OF 700MB FRONTOGENESIS...THE LOWER
TROPOSPHERIC THERMAL PROFILES WILL BE COOLING TO SUPPORT SNOW AT THE
SURFACE. AT AROUND DAYBREAK...THE SNOW LINE SHOULD EXTEND FROM
ROUGHLY ELKHART TO LAKIN TO SCOTT CITY. BY LATE MORNING...THE RAIN
IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW ALONG ROUGHLY A HUGOTON TO
CIMARRON TO NESS CITY AXIS...AND BY MID-AFTERNOON ALONG ROUGHLY A
MINNEOLA TO LARNED LINE.
SNOW INTENSITY WITHIN THE STRONGEST ZONE OF FRONTOGENESIS WILL
LIKELY BE ABOUT A HALF INCH PER HOUR RATE, BUT THIS RATE SHOULD NOT
LAST VERY LONG AT ANY ONE LOCATION. GIVEN WARM SURFACES AND DIURNAL
TIMING OF THE EVENT...ROAD SURFACES WILL PROBABLY BE OKAY IN MOST
AREAS. SLUSHY TO SPOTTY SNOWPACKED ROADS CAN BE EXPECTED IF THE
SNOW RATES ARE MORE THAN EXPECTED AND/OR LAST LONGER THAN EXPECTED
IN ANY ONE LOCATION FROM MID MORNING THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. AN
AVERAGE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION TOTAL OF ONE HALF TO ONE INCH
CONTINUES TO BE IN THE FORECAST BUT A FEW 2 INCH AMOUNTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY FARTHER NORTHWEST FROM ROUGHLY LAKIN TO
DIGHTON TO WAKEENEY...AS THE MID LEVEL CYCLONE TRACKS FROM LIBERAL
TO GREAT BEND DURING THE DAY.
TOMORROW NIGHT...WHATEVER PRECIPITATION REMAINS EARLY IN THE EVENING
WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES AND EXITING QUICKLY...SO
MUCH OF THIS TIME FRAME WILL BE TRANQUIL AS A SURFACE HIGH SETTLES
IN AND WINDS DECREASE QUITE A BIT. LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS A
CHALLENGE AND A LOT WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH SNOW FELL AND
ACCUMULATED. IF AN INCH OR TWO OF FRESH SNOWFALL STILL REMAINS ON
THE GROUND AFTER SUNSET...THEN TEMPERATURES WILL SURELY FALL INTO
THE UPPER TEENS...HOWEVER IF THERE IS A LOT OF MELT GOING ON AS THE
SNOW FALLS WITH NOT MUCH LEFT ON THE GROUND BY SUNSET...THEN LOWS
WILL BE WARMER (LOWER TO MID 20S).
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CST TUE FEB 14 2012
THURSDAY:
WEDNESDAYS UPPER LEVEL WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING WELL TO THE
EAST OF THE FA ON THURSDAY WITH A FLAT MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW
PATTERN LEFT IN ITS WAKE. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE
ACROSS THE PLAINS. WITH SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
SYSTEM, WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY NEAR CLIMO.
FRIDAY/SATURDAY:
KANSAS WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING
ACROSS MEXICO AND A BROAD UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE UPPER MIDWEST
SYSTEM WILL CAUSE THE WEAK TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS
THE STATE, RESULTING IN A WEAK WIND SHIFT. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE A BIT MORE BY THE END OF THE BUSINESS WEEK WITH LOW 50S DEG
F EXPECTED.
SUNDAY:
HAVE KEPT THE ALLBLEND POPS SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
TURNS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AND A WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN ENSUES.
THESE POPS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE
BREEZY AS 850 HPA WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 35 KT ON BOTH GFS/ECMWF
PLUS DECENT LEE SURFACE TROUGHING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UL
DISTURBANCE. HAVE INCREASED WINDS ABOVE THE ALLBLEND AS A RESULT.
THE ECMWF IS LESS AMPLIFIED WITH THE WAVE THAN COMPARED TO THE GFS
AND WITH SLIGHTLY WEAKER DYNAMICS GOING INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE
HIGHEST POPS ARE ALONG INTERSTATE 70 AND LESS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS.
MONDAY ONWARDS:
THE FORECAST BECOMES A BIT MUDDLED MONDAY AND PARTICULARLY INTO
TUESDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A LARGE AND BAGGY TROUGH ACROSS
THE PLAINS. THE ECMWF IS MORE BROAD WITH THE 500 HPA PATTERN THAN
COMPARED TO THE GFS. THIS WOULD RESULT IN A DRY WESTERLY FLOW
PATTERN ACROSS KANSAS...SOMETHING THAT IS NOT TOO CONDUCIVE TO
BRINGING PRECIPITATION HERE. AS A RESULT, HAVE LIMITED POPS BELOW 15
PERCENT AND GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 524 PM CST TUE FEB 14 2012
HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN AND LOWER ACROSS SOUTHWEST
KANSAS THIS EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST
ACROSS EASTERN ARIZONIA/FAR WESTERN NEW MEXICO. THERE MAY EVEN BE
A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING TOWARDS MIDNIGHT AT HAYS AS 850MB WARM
AIR ADVECTION IMPROVES. TEMPERATURE PROFILES AT HAYS INDICATED THE
ATMOSHERE WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR MAINLY RAINSHOWERS EARLY TONIGHT BUT
UNABLE TO RULE OUT A PERIOD OF SLEET AS THE ATMOSHERE BEGINS TO
COOL EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS IMPROVES
ON EARLY WEDNESDAY THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT ALL TAF SITES WILL
IMPROVE. RAIN CHANGIN TO SNOW WILL BE LIKELY AT ALL TERMINALS
AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY.
A PERSISTANT SOUTHEAST FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL DRAW HIGHER LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE BACK INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS EARLY TONIGHT. AS THE
LOW LEVELS SATURATE...STATUS AND FOG STILL APPEARS LIKELY. LATEST
HRRR AND RUC STILL POINT AT DDC HAVING THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR
DENSE FOG BUT VISIBLITIES FALLING TO LESS THAN ONE MILE AT TIMES
AT GCK AND HYS. THE ONSET OF THE LOW STATUS AND FOG IS EXPECTED TO
SPREAD INTO THE DDC AREA BY 04Z WITH VSBYS FALLING TO LESS THAN
ONE MILE BY MIDNIGHT AT GCK AND HYS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 35 38 25 47 / 40 70 40 0
GCK 34 38 22 47 / 60 70 30 0
EHA 30 43 23 48 / 40 30 10 0
LBL 33 45 24 49 / 20 30 20 0
HYS 33 36 22 45 / 60 70 40 0
P28 34 47 28 49 / 20 40 20 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY
FOR KSZ066-078>081-087>090.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...UMSCHEID
SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM....SUGDEN
AVIATION...BURGERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
1152 AM EST MON FEB 13 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER AND SLOWLY MODERATING
TEMPERATURES TODAY. LOW PRESSURE, COMING EAST FROM KANSAS, WILL
BRING A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PER RECENT SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA, EXPECT NO MORE THAN A FEW
CUMULUS AND CIRRUS CLOUDS PASSING ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
THIS AFTERNOON. HENCE IT WILL STAY SUNNY.
H8 TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN WARMING, SO SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE MODERATING THIS AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH SNOW PACK REFLECTION
AND SUBLIMATION WILL SERVE AS RESTRICTIONS. RECENT HRRR AND GFS
LAMP MODEL OUTPUT SUPPORT PREVIOUS NAM AND GFS MOS VALUES IN
FORECASTING HIGHS, EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S, WHICH IS
5 TO 8 DEGREES COLDER THAN NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RECENT SREF AND NAM MODEL OUTPUT CONTINUE TO SHOW A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM COMING EAST FROM KANSAS PASSING THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY TUESDAY.
BASED ON RECENT NAM MODEL PROFILES, THE INITIAL PRECIPITATION
TYPE WILL BE SNOW TUESDAY MORNING. PREFRONTAL SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY
PUSH ENOUGH SURFACE LAYER WARMTH TO PROMOTE A CHANGE TO RAIN
SHOWERS AS FAR NORTH AS THE I-70 CORRIDOR AND PITTSBURGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. DUE TO A ZONAL JETSTREAM ALOFT, POST FRONTAL COOLING
WILL BE WEAK, SO CORRESPONDING POST FRONTAL SNOW SHOWERS WILL
LIKEWISE BE WEAK AND SHORT-LIVED.
THE ENTIRE SYSTEM PASSAGE WILL PRODUCE LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.
SO ANY SNOW AMOUNTS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE LIMITED
TO NO MORE THAN 2 INCHES NORTH AND MOUNTAINS, AND 1 INCH SOUTH.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY.
FORECASTED HIGH TEMPERATURES, BASED ON RECENT GFS AND NAM MOS VALUES, TO
BE NEAR NORMAL BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, WHILE CLOUDY SKIES WILL
PROMOTE WARMER THAN NORMAL NIGHTTIME LOWS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW A BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MS VALLEY TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY FRIDAY. ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO TRACK FROM THE PLAINS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES. MIXED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD CHANGE TO MAINLY
ALL RAIN BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES WARM....THEN BACK TO
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION FRIDAY...BUT LINGERING
MOISTURE AND NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD MAINTAIN A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-80. A WEAK SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR
NORTH COUPLED WITH NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER THE REGION DURING THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL DURING
THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PER RECENT SURFACE AND SATELLITE DATA, EXPECT VFR WITH FEW
CUMULUS THIS AFTERNOON. CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
EARLY TONIGHT, FOLLOWED BY ALTOCUMULUS CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT, FROM
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COMING EASTBOUND FROM KANSAS.
WINDS WILL BE 5-10KTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST.
OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS WITH MAINLY MVFR RESTRICTIONS TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSAGE. ENSUING HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING VFR WEDNESDAY. RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY, DUE TO A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, COMING NORTHEAST FROM
THE PLAINS.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MARQUETTE MI
615 PM EST TUE FEB 14 2012
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 PM EST TUE FEB 14 2012
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED AN UPSTREAM MID/UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE ERN DAKOTAS INTO SRN MN. AT THE SFC...LOW
PRES WAS LOCATED OVER SE NORTH DAKOTA. SO FAR..ONLY LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES WERE OBSERVED WITH THE SHRTWV OVER THE DAKOTAS. AHEAD OF
THE LOW WEAK SW FLOW PREVAILED WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM
WI INTO UPPER MI KEEPING LOW CLOUDS OVER THE REGION. WITH THE MILD
AIRMASS OVER THE AREA...TEMPS HAD CLIMBED INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S
DESPITE THE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER.
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...MODELS SUGGEST MID LEVEL FGEN ASSOCIATED
WITH THE DAKOTAS SHRTWV WILL SUPPORT AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW INTO NRN WI
AND UPPER MI LATE TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING. THE FCST LEANS TOWARD
THE 12Z/18Z NAM WITH THE GREATER FORCING/POPS INTO THE SW HALF OF
THE CWA. THERE MAY BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF BRIEF HEAVIER
SNOW...GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE FORCING. HOWEVER...SINCE THERE
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN WHERE ANY STRONGER PCPN BAND MAY
OCCUR...ONLY CHANCE POPS WERE INCLUDED WITH OVERALL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
OF LESS THAN AN INCH.
LOOK FOR MINS TONIGHT TO RANGE MAINLY IN THE LOWER 20S OVER THE WRN
INTERIOR TO THE MID 20S NEAR THE GREAT LAKES AND EAST. HIGH TEMPS
WILL AGAIN CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL...INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 PM EST TUE FEB 14 2012
STRONG NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL NEAR THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...PHASING WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE MOVING NORTHWEST FROM THE PLAINS. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS WERE
SHOWING SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE INTENSITY AND LOCATION OF THIS
PHASING...CAUSING DISCREPANCIES IN QPF AMOUNTS AND LOCATION OF THE
SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM. MOST RECENT RUNS
OF GFS/NAM/ECMWF/GEM HAVE SEEM TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT...WITH
GENERAL CONSENSUS HAVING THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PASSING OVER LOWER
MI BY EARLY AFTERNOON THURSDAY. DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL BE CONFINED
NEAR THE CENTER OF THE LOW...BUT GOOD CONVERGENCE AND DECENT LAPSE
RATES WILL MOVE INTO UPPER MI...ESPECIALLY EAST AS THE SOUTHERN
SHORTWAVE MOVES FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...BRINGING CHANCES FOR
PRECIP BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT SOUTH CENTRAL AND REMAINING DURING
THE DAY THURSDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. NORTHERN WAVE ENERGY WILL
KEEP THE LOW SUPPRESSED FAR ENOUGH SOUTH THAT MOST OF THE MOISTURE
AND LIFT WILL BE CONFINED TO SOUTHEAST WI AND LOWER MI WHERE THE
BEST WAA IS LOCATED...THOUGH 0Z GEM BRINGS SOME OF THE ASSOCIATED
HIGHER QPF VALUES FARTHER NORTH ALONG LAKE MI IN UPPER MI AS WELL.
WILL KEEP WITH HIGHEST QPF AND SNOWFALL TOTALS NEAR THE LAKE MI
SHORELINE...BUT GOING WITH CONSENSUS...ONLY EXPECT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
TO REACH THE 3 TO 5 INCH RANGE IN THIS AREA.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST BY
THURSDAY EVENING...FOLLOWED SHORTLY THEREAFTER BY THE ASSOCIATED
PHASED SHORTWAVE. DRY AIR WILL THEN INFILTRATE FROM WEST TO
EAST...BRINGING AN END TO PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS. AS
THIS TAKES PLACE...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A PREDOMINATE NW DIRECTION
AND STRENGTHEN BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE. COLDER H850 TEMPERATURES WILL
THEN BEGIN FILTERING IN BY THE DAY FRIDAY...ALLOWING INSTABILITY AND
LES CHANCES TO DEVELOP.
DAYS 4 THROUGH 7 /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS THE GENERAL TROUGH PATTERN CONTINUES OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...EXPECT A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TO IMPACT THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. MODELS WILL CONTINUE
HAVING VARYING SOLUTIONS ON TIMING AND LOCATION...WITH THE ECMWF
CONTINUING TO BE THE MOST PROGRESSIVE.
LES CHANCES WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY WITH 0Z ECMWF H850 TEMPS -15C ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND
PREDOMINATE NW WINDS DURING THE DAY. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL HELP KEEP LES EAST OF MUNISING WHERE NW WINDS WILL BE MAXIMIZED
WITH THE FETCH OVER THE LAKE. INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL BE AROUND
6KFT...WITH THE BEST SNOW GROWTH JUST BELOW THIS LAYER. CAPE VALUES
WILL MAX OUT AROUND 18Z SATURDAY...AS WILL THE LES PARAMETER. WITH
LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS...COULD EXPECT HIGHER END SNOW RATIOS IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S. WILL CONTINUE WITH MIDNIGHT SHIFTS DECISION
TO BUMP UP POPS IN NW WIND FAVORED AREAS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. AS
NEXT SHORTWAVE PASSES OVER SATURDAY NIGHT...EXPECT WINDS TO THEN
SHIFT TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION AND H850 TEMPS TO BEGIN
INCREASING BY SUNDAY EVENING...THEREBY BRINGING AN END TO ANY
LINGERING LES CHANCES. 0Z ECMWF/GFS THEN HAVE A SHORT LIVED RIDGE
BUILDING IN ON MONDAY KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY DURING THE DAY.
DECREASING CLOUDS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD SHOULD ALLOW HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO RISE BACK INTO THE MID 30S.
AS RIDGE LIES OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY...A SHORTWAVE
WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS. THIS WILL AMPLIFY THE
RIDGE...WHILE ALSO CAUSING ITS QUICK EXIT TO THE NORTHEAST.
SHORTWAVE WILL THEN REPLACE THE RIDGE AND BRING PRECIP CHANCES BY
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH THE 0Z ECMWF KEEPING THE TRACK OF THIS SHORTWAVE
ACROSS WI AND LOWER MI. WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM...DON/T EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP MUCH...REMAINING IN
THE 20S. ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE WILL REACH CROSS UPPER MI BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH PRECIP CHANCES CONTINUING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 614 PM EST TUE FEB 14 2012
EXTENSIVE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER UPPER MICHIGAN IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. MVFR CIGS SHOULD PREVAIL OR WILL PREVAIL
THIS EVENING. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS LATE TONIGHT SHOULD CONTINUE TO KEEP MVFR CIGS
ACROSS THE REGION. THERE COULD BE A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 418 PM EST TUE FEB 14 2012
A SERIES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WILL
KEEP WINDS BELOW 20KTS TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON WED NIGHT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL
LEAD TO NW WINDS UP TO 25KTS OVER ERN LK SUPERIOR. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN MOVE OVER THE AREA FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND AND
KEEP WINDS BELOW 20KTS. WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD...LITTLE TO NO FREEZING SPRAY IS EXPECTED.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
546 PM EST MON FEB 13 2012
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EST MON FEB 13 2012
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS TOWARD THE MID MS VALLEY AND
CONFLUENT FLOW FROM NRN ONTARIO INTO THE NRN LAKES ON THE PERIPHERY OF
THE DEEP TROUGH OVER ERN CANADA. LIGHT SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SHRTWV HAD ADVANCED INTO SRN WI. AT THE SFC...SRLY FLOW PREVAILED
FROM MO/IA INTO WI UPPER MI AHEAD OF A TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS.
VIS LOOP SHOWED MID CLOUDS HAD SPREAD FROM NRN WI THROUGH THE SW
HALF OF UPPER MI WITH LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
LOW.
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...EXPECT CLOUDS TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF
THE CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY...PER
SATELLITE TRENDS AND NAM/GFS SFC-850 RH FCST. ALTHOUGH THE PCPN OVER
SRN WI CONTINUED TO SPREAD TO THE NORTH...WITH ONLY VERY WEAK FORCING
QVECTOR CONV...FGEN OR ISENTROPIC LIFT...ANY LIGHT SNOW MOVING INTO
THE AREA SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT AND BE CONFINED TO THE FAR SOUTH CWA
(SOUTH OF US-2)...PER GFS/ECMWF AND REGIONAL GEM. CLOUDS WILL HOLD
TEMPS UP TONIGHT WITH MIN READINGS MAINLY IN THE 20S. WITH THE
RELATIVELY MILD AIRMASS LINGERING OVER THE AREA TUESDAY...MAX
READINGS SHOULD STILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S...DESPITE THE
LINGERING CLOUDS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EST MON FEB 13 2012
WED THRU MON...UNDER SPLIT FLOW REGIME...ARCTIC AIR WILL BE BOTTLED
UP WELL TO THE N INTO NEXT WEEKEND...RESULTING IN TEMPS CONTINUING
TO AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL. MODELS HINT AT A WEAK SHORTWAVE TO PASS
OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...MID AND UPPER LEVEL
DRY AIR ALONG WITH VERY LITTLE LIFT WILL KEEP MUCH OF UPPER MI
PREDOMINATELY DRY DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
CENTRALIZED SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING CALIFORNIA DURING THE DAY TODAY
WILL SLOWLY MOVE E TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN
SHIFT TO A MORE NW DIRECTION...REACHING LAKE MI BY 12Z THURSDAY.
SOME MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE ALSO POINTING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR NRN
STREAM ENERGY TO PHASE WITH AND POSSIBLY STRENGTHEN THIS SRN STREAM
SYSTEM AS IT NEARS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. MODEL CONSENSUS KEEPS
MOST OF THE PRECIP CENTERED ALONG EASTERN EDGE OF THE PRESSURE
SYSTEM WHERE THE DEEPEST QVECTOR CONV/LIFT WILL BE LOCATED...AS WELL
AS ALONG THE ADJOINING COLD FRONT TO THE SOUTH. SOME OF THIS DEEP
MOISTURE AND QVECTOR CONV COULD REACH SC AND E UPPER MI DURING THE
DAY THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY AS SYSTEM BECOMES MORE WRAPPED UP. MODELS
HINT AT A TROWEL DEVELOPING...PULLING THE COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN
MENOMINEE COUNTY AND CENTRAL WI ALONG WITH 0.25 TO 0.5 INCH QPF
VALUES. THIS HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN THE PREVIOUS TWO RUNS OF THE
GFS/ECMWF/AND NAM...THOUGH LATEST 13/12Z GFS AND GEM SEEMED TO PUSH
PRECIP FARTHER SOUTH. AS A RESULT...HAVE CONTINUED WITH EARLIER
CONSENSUS RUNS AND INCREASED POPS AND QPF ACROSS THE CWA. LATEST
MODEL RUNS ALSO SHOW COLDER 850 TEMPERATURE TRENDS...WHILE SURFACE
TEMPS WILL REMAIN RIGHT AT FREEZING...SO EXPECT SNOW TO BE THE MAIN
PRECIP TYPE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR LATEST MODEL RUNS FOR ANY
CHANGE IN PLACEMENTS/WIND DIRECTIONS AND RESULTING PRECIP
TYPES/LOCATIONS.
MIDLEVEL DRY AIR AHEAD OF APPROACHING RIDGE WILL THEN CUT IN BY
THURSDAY NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...REDUCING
PRECIP CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT. THE RESULT OF THIS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE TO TURN WINDS MORE NORTHWESTERLY BY FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY...ALLOWING ARCTIC AIR TO PENETRATE SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES. 13/12Z GFS HAS H850 TEMPS DROPPING TO -17C
SATURDAY. THIS...ALONG WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...WILL
CREATE THE CONVERGENCE NEEDED FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY IN AREAS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR FAVORED BY NW WINDS. 13/12Z
ECMWF ALSO KEEPS WITH THIS TREND...THOUGH FALLING TEMPERATURES AND
AMOUNT OF CONVERGENCE ARE SLIGHTLY LESS MAGNIFIED. AS A
RESULT...HAVE INCREASED SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ALONG LAKE
SUPERIOR IN AREAS FAVORED BY A NW WIND DIRECTION...KEEPING WITH
PREVIOUS FORECASTS.
ANY LINGERING LES EAST WILL COME TO AN END LATE SATURDAY...AS WINDS
BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY...AHEAD OF THE NEXT SFC LOW/500MB TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM CENTRAL CANADA AND MN. THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH
TIMING DIFFERENCE TO RESULT IN MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE FCST
BEYOND THIS PERIOD. WHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD SHAPE
UP UNTIL THIS POINT...THE 13/06Z RUN OF THE GFS BECOMES ROUGHLY 12
HRS SLOWER THAN THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF WITH THE HANDLING OF THIS
WAVE /CENTERED ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AT 00Z MONDAY...WHILE
THE ECMWF HAS IT OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/. WHILE THE ECMWF
INDICATES A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH THE SFC LOW CENTERED OVER
NORTHERN ONTARIO. GIVEN THE SLOWER AND MORE SOUTHERN GFS...A BROAD
SFC LOW WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT LAKES...WITH LIGHT PRECIP
AND PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER BEFORE THE SYSTEM EJECTS EASTWARD MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 546 PM EST MON FEB 13 2012
A DISTURBANCE MOVING FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS TO THE LOWER GREAT LKS
WILL HAVE THE LOWER TO MID CLOUDS TO LOWER THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
LIKELY BE IN THE MVFR CAT AFTER 06Z.
MODELS WERE HINTING AT PLENTY OF LLVL MOISTENING...WHICH COULD LEAD
TO SOME REDUCED VSBYS FROM BR. WITH LIMITED LLVL LIFT AND SINCE
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF AN UNFAVORABLE SWRLY DIRECTION...WILL KEEP VSBY
REDUCTION OUT AT THIS TIME.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EST MON FEB 13 2012
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP WINDS BELOW
20KTS TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON WED NIGHT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES REGION FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL
LEAD TO NW WINDS UP TO 25KTS OVER ERN LK SUPERIOR. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN MOVE OVER THE AREA FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND AND
KEEP WINDS BELOW 20KTS. WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD...LITTLE TO NO FREEZING SPRAY IS EXPECTED.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
400 PM EST MON FEB 13 2012
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EST MON FEB 13 2012
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS TOWARD THE MID MS VALLEY AND
CONFLUENT FLOW FROM NRN ONTARIO INTO THE NRN LAKES ON THE PERIPHERY OF
THE DEEP TROUGH OVER ERN CANADA. LIGHT SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SHRTWV HAD ADVANCED INTO SRN WI. AT THE SFC...SRLY FLOW PREVAILED
FROM MO/IA INTO WI UPPER MI AHEAD OF A TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS.
VIS LOOP SHOWED MID CLOUDS HAD SPREAD FROM NRN WI THROUGH THE SW
HALF OF UPPER MI WITH LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
LOW.
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...EXPECT CLOUDS TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF
THE CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY...PER
SATELLITE TRENDS AND NAM/GFS SFC-850 RH FCST. ALTHOUGH THE PCPN OVER
SRN WI CONTINUED TO SPREAD TO THE NORTH...WITH ONLY VERY WEAK FORCING
QVECTOR CONV...FGEN OR ISENTROPIC LIFT...ANY LIGHT SNOW MOVING INTO
THE AREA SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT AND BE CONFINED TO THE FAR SOUTH CWA
(SOUTH OF US-2)...PER GFS/ECMWF AND REGIONAL GEM. CLOUDS WILL HOLD
TEMPS UP TONIGHT WITH MIN READINGS MAINLY IN THE 20S. WITH THE
RELATIVELY MILD AIRMASS LINGERING OVER THE AREA TUESDAY...MAX
READINGS SHOULD STILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S...DESPITE THE
LINGERING CLOUDS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EST MON FEB 13 2012
WED THRU MON...UNDER SPLIT FLOW REGIME...ARCTIC AIR WILL BE BOTTLED
UP WELL TO THE N INTO NEXT WEEKEND...RESULTING IN TEMPS CONTINUING
TO AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL. MODELS HINT AT A WEAK SHORTWAVE TO PASS
OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...MID AND UPPER LEVEL
DRY AIR ALONG WITH VERY LITTLE LIFT WILL KEEP MUCH OF UPPER MI
PREDOMINATELY DRY DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
CENTRALIZED SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING CALIFORNIA DURING THE DAY TODAY
WILL SLOWLY MOVE E TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN
SHIFT TO A MORE NW DIRECTION...REACHING LAKE MI BY 12Z THURSDAY.
SOME MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE ALSO POINTING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR NRN
STREAM ENERGY TO PHASE WITH AND POSSIBLY STRENGTHEN THIS SRN STREAM
SYSTEM AS IT NEARS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. MODEL CONSENSUS KEEPS
MOST OF THE PRECIP CENTERED ALONG EASTERN EDGE OF THE PRESSURE
SYSTEM WHERE THE DEEPEST QVECTOR CONV/LIFT WILL BE LOCATED...AS WELL
AS ALONG THE ADJOINING COLD FRONT TO THE SOUTH. SOME OF THIS DEEP
MOISTURE AND QVECTOR CONV COULD REACH SC AND E UPPER MI DURING THE
DAY THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY AS SYSTEM BECOMES MORE WRAPPED UP. MODELS
HINT AT A TROWEL DEVELOPING...PULLING THE COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN
MENOMINEE COUNTY AND CENTRAL WI ALONG WITH 0.25 TO 0.5 INCH QPF
VALUES. THIS HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN THE PREVIOUS TWO RUNS OF THE
GFS/ECMWF/AND NAM...THOUGH LATEST 13/12Z GFS AND GEM SEEMED TO PUSH
PRECIP FARTHER SOUTH. AS A RESULT...HAVE CONTINUED WITH EARLIER
CONSENSUS RUNS AND INCREASED POPS AND QPF ACROSS THE CWA. LATEST
MODEL RUNS ALSO SHOW COLDER 850 TEMPERATURE TRENDS...WHILE SURFACE
TEMPS WILL REMAIN RIGHT AT FREEZING...SO EXPECT SNOW TO BE THE MAIN
PRECIP TYPE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR LATEST MODEL RUNS FOR ANY
CHANGE IN PLACEMENTS/WIND DIRECTIONS AND RESULTING PRECIP
TYPES/LOCATIONS.
MIDLEVEL DRY AIR AHEAD OF APPROACHING RIDGE WILL THEN CUT IN BY
THURSDAY NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...REDUCING
PRECIP CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT. THE RESULT OF THIS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE TO TURN WINDS MORE NORTHWESTERLY BY FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY...ALLOWING ARCTIC AIR TO PENETRATE SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES. 13/12Z GFS HAS H850 TEMPS DROPPING TO -17C
SATURDAY. THIS...ALONG WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...WILL
CREATE THE CONVERGENCE NEEDED FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY IN AREAS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR FAVORED BY NW WINDS. 13/12Z
ECMWF ALSO KEEPS WITH THIS TREND...THOUGH FALLING TEMPERATURES AND
AMOUNT OF CONVERGENCE ARE SLIGHTLY LESS MAGNIFIED. AS A
RESULT...HAVE INCREASED SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ALONG LAKE
SUPERIOR IN AREAS FAVORED BY A NW WIND DIRECTION...KEEPING WITH
PREVIOUS FORECASTS.
ANY LINGERING LES EAST WILL COME TO AN END LATE SATURDAY...AS WINDS
BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY...AHEAD OF THE NEXT SFC LOW/500MB TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM CENTRAL CANADA AND MN. THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH
TIMING DIFFERENCE TO RESULT IN MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE FCST
BEYOND THIS PERIOD. WHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD SHAPE
UP UNTIL THIS POINT...THE 13/06Z RUN OF THE GFS BECOMES ROUGHLY 12
HRS SLOWER THAN THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF WITH THE HANDLING OF THIS
WAVE /CENTERED ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AT 00Z MONDAY...WHILE
THE ECMWF HAS IT OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/. WHILE THE ECMWF
INDICATES A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH THE SFC LOW CENTERED OVER
NORTHERN ONTARIO. GIVEN THE SLOWER AND MORE SOUTHERN GFS...A BROAD
SFC LOW WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT LAKES...WITH LIGHT PRECIP
AND PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER BEFORE THE SYSTEM EJECTS EASTWARD MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM EST MON FEB 13 2012
A DISTURBANCE MOVING FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS TO THE LOWER GREAT LKS
WILL BRING INCREASING MID CLOUDS LATE THIS AFTN INTO
TONIGHT. EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO LOWER THROUGH THE NIGHT AND LIKELY BE
IN THE MVFR CAT AFTER 06Z.
MODELS WERE HINTING AT PLENTY OF LLVL MOISTENING...WHICH COULD LEAD
TO SOME REDUCED VSBYS FROM BR. WITH LIMITED LLVL LIFT AND SINCE
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF AN UNFAVORABLE SWRLY DIRECTION...WILL KEEP VSBY
REDUCTION OUT AT THIS TIME.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EST MON FEB 13 2012
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP WINDS BELOW
20KTS TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON WED NIGHT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES REGION FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL
LEAD TO NW WINDS UP TO 25KTS OVER ERN LK SUPERIOR. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN MOVE OVER THE AREA FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND AND
KEEP WINDS BELOW 20KTS. WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD...LITTLE TO NO FREEZING SPRAY IS EXPECTED.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
839 PM CST TUE FEB 14 2012
.UPDATE...
SENT QUICK UPDATE TO GRIDDED AND TEXT PRODUCTS BASED ON RADAR AND
SHORT-TERM TRENDS. SFC LOW PRESSURE CENTERED REFLECTED NICELY ON
KMPX RADAR WITH THE CENTER ROTATING THROUGH CENTRAL MN WEST OF THE
TWIN CITIES. SEVERAL PASSING BANDS HAVE PRODUCED DUSTING
ACCUMULATIONS AS THEY HAVE ROTATED THROUGH...SO HAVE INCRD POPS TO
THE LOW-MID CHC RANGE FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE WFO
MPX COVERAGE AREA. NONE OF THE BANDS ARE LONG-LASTING NOR ARE THEY
PRODUCING ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT...SO AM ONLY EXPECTING A TENTH TO A
QUARTER INCH OF SNOW THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS OVER ERN MN INTO W-CENTRAL WI. LOCAL WRF...SREF AND RUC
ARE HAVING A HARD TIME WITH THE INITIALIZATION WHILE THE 18Z AND
00Z RUNS OF THE HRRR BOTH CAPTURE THINGS QUITE WELL SO AM STICKING
CLOSE TO ITS PROJECTIONS FOR MOST WX ELEMENTS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
&&
.AVIATION.../00Z TAF ISSUANCE/
FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST OF VIS AND CIGS TONIGHT.
PRONOUNCED MID DECK OF CLOUDS WILL BE WITH US FOR THE NEXT 6-8
HOURS AS UPPER LOW SWINGS THOUGH. THERE ARE SOME SCATTERED LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS AND POCKETS OF MVFR UNDERNEATH THE MID CLOUD DECK.
LEFT THE SNOW OUT OF THE TAF OUTSIDE OF KAXN...AS SNOW SHOULD BE
FEW AND FAR BETWEEN UNLESS IMMEDIATELY UNDERNEATH THE UPPER LOW IN
WEST CENTRAL MN. THE BIG QUESTION WILL BE HOW BAD CONDITIONS GET
IF/WHEN THE MID CLOUDS CLEAR. STILL MOIST AT THE SURFACE AND WE
MELTED SNOW TODAY. THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH TONIGHT THAT FOG
OR EVEN LOW STRATUS COULD BE A PROBLEM IF TEMPERATURES DROP AND
THE HIGHER CLOUDS CLEAR. A DRIER WESTERLY FLOW TOMORROW MORNING
SHOULD HELP TO CLEAR WHAT REMAINS OF THE LOW CLOUDS OR FOG.
HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING ANOTHER BATCH OF MVFR CEILINGS
AND EVEN SOME LIGHT SNOW TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
KMSP...VFR IS COMMON ACROSS EASTERN MN THIS EVENING AND IT SHOULD
REMAIN THAT WAY FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE CONCERN IS
WHAT HAPPENS TONIGHT ONCE WE COOL LOW LAYERS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE...ESPECIALLY IF MID CLOUDS SCATTER OUT. ALTHOUGH
NOT VERY CONFIDENT IN SPECIFICS ON TIMING AND HOW BAD THINGS WILL
ACTUALLY GET...THERE IS ENOUGH EVIDENCE TO GO FAIRLY PESSIMISTIC
WITH THE CIG AND VIS FORECAST LATE TONIGHT. THERE`S ALSO SOME
INDICATION THAT ONCE WINDS GO MORE SW...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
DRYING TO IMPROVE CONDITIONS LATE IN THE MORNING. WE`LL HAVE TO
SEE. THE AIRPORT IS REPORTING 7SM VIS RIGHT NOW...AN EARLY
INDICATOR THAT THERE IS SOME MOISTURE OUT THERE TO WORK WITH.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 628 PM CST TUE FEB 14 2012/
THE LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED DEPICTED A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. THIS WAVE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND WEAKEN
OVERNIGHT. SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WILL OCCUR AHEAD
OF IT. STILL NO SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IS ANTICIPATE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...CONTINUES THE SAME OLD
WEATHER PATTERN WE HAVE EXPERIENCED MOST OF THE WINTER. THE LATEST
MODEL INDICATE A SPLIT UPPER AIRFLOW REGIME OVER THE MIDWEST WITH
NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET STREAM...BRUSHING ACROSS NORTHERN MN
WHILE THE SOUTHERN STREAM STAYS WELL SOUTH OF MN AND WESTERN
WISCONSIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND 40S...AND NIGHTTIME
LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S.
THE LONG RANGE FORECAST...THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF MODELS DEVELOP A
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST BY MONDAY.
THE GFS MODEL IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE...STILL IT LOOK LIKE THIS
TIME FRAME IS BEST CHANCE OF THE FORECAST AREA RECEIVING MEASURABLE
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
JPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
958 AM MST MON FEB 13 2012
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND TUE...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES ARE BEING MADE TO TODAY/S FORECAST. WE HAVE HAD
A BIT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO CYCLONIC FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE CENTERED NEAR WILLISTON ND AT 16 UTC.
WE HAVE DECIDED TO CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON SINCE THIS SITUATION WILL
CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST A FEW MORE HOURS. TEMPERATURES AT THIS POINT
ARE ACTUALLY RUNNING A BIT AHEAD OF THE FORECAST CURVE IN RESPONSE
TO THE CLOUD COVER THAT INHIBITED SUBSTANTIAL SURFACE COOLING THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER...THOSE SAME CLOUDS LOOK TO HOLD TIGHT OVER A LOT
OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...SO WE WILL
NOT INCREASE HIGH TEMPERATURES MUCH AT THIS POINT. MIXING TO ABOUT
850 HPA YIELDS HIGHS CLOSE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST...THOUGH WE DID
NOTE THAT THE LATEST RUC MIXES SOME PLACES ON THE PLAINS DEEPER TO
NEAR 800 HPA TODAY...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN HIGHS ABOUT 5 F GREATER
THAN WHAT WE CURRENTLY HAVE ADVERTISED. SCHULTZ
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...
BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS MODELS ARE
CONSISTENT WITH KEEPING MONTANA AND WYOMING UNDER NORTHERN BRANCH
OF ENERGY FOR WEDNESDAY WITH THE SPLIT FLOW STAYING SOUTH OF THE
AREA. THIS BRINGS A SERIES A DISTURBANCES BEHIND TUESDAY MAIN WAVE
FOR A CHANCE OF LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY ESPECIALLY FOR THE
SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA. DID RAISE WINDS A BIT
WITH SOME MIXING POSSIBLE AND LOWERED TEMPERATURES A BIT. THURSDAY
HAS A BREAK IN THE WEATHER WITH AGAIN BOTH MODELS SHOWING ANOTHER
WAVE FOR FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT LOOK SIGNIFICANT SO WOULD
ONLY EXPECT SPOTTY SNOW SHOWERS WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION.
SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE A NICE DAY AS A RIDGE MOVES OVER THE REGION
AND HAVE ELIMINATED CHANCE OF SNOW FOR THE MOUNTAINS. MODELS
CARRYING THE NEXT SYSTEM SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA WITH THE ECMWF
SHOWING SOME SOUTHWEST DIFFLUENT FLOW FOR THE MOUNTAINS WHILE THE
GFS HAS MORE OF A MOUNTAIN OROGRAPHIC FLOW LOOK TO IT. EITHER WAY
DRY FOR THE PLAINS AND KEEPING SOME SNOW FOR THE MOUNTAINS.
CONFIDENCE DECREASES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT NO SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER MAKERS EXPECTED.
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES LOOK LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NORMAL
HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS TIME OF YEAR IN THE LOWER 40S AND LOWS IN
THE 20S. BORSUM
&&
.AVIATION...
WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE OVER THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY FROM KBIL TO KSHR E. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
ACCOMPANY SOME OF PRECIPITATION. IN ADDITION...OCCASIONAL MVFR
CEILINGS WILL OCCUR W OF KBIL TO KSHR. EXPECT AREAS OF MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION AS WELL. THE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL END THIS
EVENING...BUT OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT...ALONG WITH AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION. A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA FROM W TO E
ON TUE MORNING WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS. EXPECT AREAS OF
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION AS WELL. ARTHUR
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 042 024/039 020/038 022/042 025/043 024/040 021/040
2/W 13/W 30/B 00/B 12/W 11/B 01/B
LVM 042 018/036 017/035 018/041 021/040 022/037 021/037
1/B 14/J 41/B 00/B 12/J 11/B 11/E
HDN 042 022/040 021/039 020/042 020/043 021/042 019/042
2/W 12/W 31/B 00/B 12/J 11/B 01/B
MLS 042 021/038 018/037 021/040 021/041 021/040 020/040
2/W 12/J 21/B 00/B 11/B 11/B 11/B
4BQ 042 021/039 019/035 020/039 020/042 020/041 019/041
2/W 12/J 32/J 00/B 12/J 11/U 01/B
BHK 040 020/036 017/036 019/036 017/040 018/037 017/037
2/W 11/B 21/B 00/B 01/B 11/U 01/B
SHR 040 018/037 017/036 017/040 018/042 018/040 018/040
2/W 13/J 61/B 11/B 12/J 21/U 11/B
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
302 PM CST MON FEB 13 2012
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
REGIONAL MOSAIC 88D AND SATL PIX SHOWING NARROW LIGHT BAND SNOW
THROUGH NORTHWEST IOWA/CENTRAL NEB/NORTH CENTRAL KS ASSOCIATED WITH
UPPER DEFORMATION ZONE AND SUBTLE POCKET OF UPGLIDE. HIGH RES HRRR
AND RUC SHOWING THAT SNOW ACTIVITY SHOW BE OUT OF THE CWA BY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON.
MODELS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT LARGE SCALE FLOW WILL CONSIST OF A
BROAD TROF PREVAILING ACROSS THE CONUS WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE MIGRATING THROUGH. FOR OUR AREA...SHORTWAVE OF PARTICULAR
INTEREST WAS CURRENTLY DIGGING DOWN THE WEST COAST AND SHOULD BOTTOM
OUT OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION TUESDAY...THEN LIFT INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY WITH DPVA INDUCING SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IN TX
PANHANDLE. MODELS ALSO ADVERTISE STOUT MOISTURE ADVECTION WRAPPING
INTO THE SYSTEM. EXPECT AREAL COVERAGE OF PCPN WILL INCREASE AS IT
EXPANDS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY. GIVEN TRACK OF BEST DYNAMIC
FORCING...HAVE HIGHEST POPS TO THE SOUTH. PCPN TYPE WILL BE HARD TO
PIN DOWN. BUFKIT SHOWING LOW LEVEL THERMAL STRUCTURE IN FLUX WITH
POSSIBLE MIX OF FREEZING RAIN/SNOW AT ONSET OF MORNING PCPN. SYSTEM
IS PROGGED TO SWEEP THROUGH QUICKLY AND PCPN SHOULD BE COMING TO
AN END WEDNESDAY EVENING. NO SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.
DEE
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND DESPITE
FAST/ACTIVE NWRLY FLOW THANKS TO LIMITED AVAILABLE MOISTURE. UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEKEND WHICH SHOULD HELP
TEMPS RISE INTO THE LOWER 40S. A POTENT MID LEVEL WAVE MOVING OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. STRENGTH AND TIMING ARE STILL UNRESOLVED BUT TEMPS EARLY IN
THE SYSTEM LOOK WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT RAIN.
KERN
&&
.AVIATION...18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KOMA AND KLNK.
A MIX OF IFR AND MVFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTN AT ALL 3
TAF LOCATIONS. AS A WEAKENING AREA OF LIFT MOVS THROUGH OFK BY MID
AFTN SOME ADDITIONAL -SN WILL BE POSSIBLE THERE...BUT OTHERWISE JUST
SOME PATCHY FZDZ IS EXPECTED AT OMA FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS WITH DRY
CONDS AT LNK. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES THOUGH TONIGHT AS TO WHETHER FOG
WILL FORM AS THE LOW CLOUDS ATTEMPT TO MOVE OUT. ATTM WILL NOT HIT
THE FOG TO HARD AND CONT TO MONITOR THRU THE AFTN. STRATUS MAY ALSO
TRY AND REDEVELOP THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AT
OMA/LNK...BUT THERE IS A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY THERE AS WELL.
REGARDLESS...VFR CONDS SHOULD RETURN AT ALL SITES BY MID MORNING ON
TUE.
BOUSTEAD
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
1019 PM EST TUE FEB 14 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
SLIDE SOUTH OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. LIGHT SNOW AND SCATTERED
FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THIS HAPPENS. BY WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS
WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA
FROM THE WEST. BY THURSDAY...ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL BARE DOWN ON
THE REGION WHICH WILL LEAD TO THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION
ACROSS NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND CENTRAL NEW YORK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
1000 PM UPDATE...
A SHORT WAVE OVER NW PA AND WESTERN NY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHEAST OVER THE CWA THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AN AREA OF LIGHT
SNOW OVER NORTHERN PA WILL SLIDE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CATSKILLS
THROUGH 07Z. WITH SURFACE TEMPS NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING...ONLY A
DUSTING AT MOST IS EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE
FOR THIS OCCURRING OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN. ASIDE FROM THIS AREA
OF SNOW...THE REST OF THE NIGHT FOR MOST OF OUR AREA LOOKS VERY
QUIET. A LOOK AT 0Z SOUNDINGS FROM BUFFALO AND PITTSBURGH ALONG
WITH RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE EASED THE CONCERN FOR FREEZING
DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT SOMEWHAT. WHILE WE DO HAVE DRIER AIR WORKING
INTO THE MID LEVELS...WE ARE STILL FAIRLY MOIST UP THROUGH
-14C/-15C...SO WE SHOULD HAVE SOME ICE CRYSTALS TO WORK WITH. I
NOTICED THAT MOST OF THE OBS TO THE WEST THAT REPORTED PLAIN
DRIZZLE WERE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE LAKES...AND PROBABLY BEING
INFLUENCED BY THEM. WHILE SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE HERE AND THEIR CAN`T
ENTIRELY BE RULED OUT...THINKING THAT WHAT LITTLE PRECIP WE SEE
FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT WILL BE JUST SOME SCT. FLURRIES.
IT SEEMS OUR BEST SHOT AT A CHANGEOVER TO DRIZZLE WOULD BE MORE
TOWARD MID-MORNING WEDNESDAY AS WE BEGIN TO DRY OUT DOWN TOWARD
THE -10C LAYER. HOWEVER BY THE TIME THIS HAPPENS...BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPS WILL WARM ENOUGH THAT IT SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE. THE
PREVIOUS AFD IS BELOW...
630 PM UPDATE...
FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN VERY GOOD SHAPE WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS
THE ENTIRE CWA THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS. DESPITE RETURNS OF NEAR
20 DBZ ON RADAR...OBS ACROSS OUR AREA ARE SHOWING VERY...VERY
LIGHT SNOW WITH VSBYS IN THE 4 TO 6SM RANGE. IN FACT ACROSS THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS JUST SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE HAS BEEN REPORTED
AT SYRACUSE AND AVOCA IS STILL 41! PRECIP WILL REMAIN LIGHT OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS BUT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENS A BIT AND
TEMPS COOL TO NEAR FREEZING WE MAY SEE A QUICK COATING OF SNOW
OVER THE FAR NORTH (ONEIDA COUNTY). WE ARE ALREADY SEEING DRYING
TO OUR WEST AND OUR NEXT CONCERN WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR SOME
FREEZING DRIZZLE TONIGHT. THE PREVIOUS AFD ALREADY ADDRESSES THIS
CONCERN AND WILL MONITOR AND UPDATE AS NEEDED LATER TONIGHT.
SHORTWAVE ENERGY CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE EASTERN OHIO RVR VLY
WILL SLIDE SOUTH OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. CURRENT REGIONAL RADAR
IMAGERY DEPICTING MOST CONCENTRATED ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHERN PA...WITH
LIGHTER ACTIVITY NOTED FURTHER TO THE NORTH. WITH TIME THIS
EVENING...SHORTWAVE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION KEEPING THE BEST
FORCING FOR ASCENT SOUTH OF THE CWA. THAT SAID...MAIN CONCERN WITH
GOING FORECAST WILL BE INCREASING PROSPECTS FOR -FZDZ OVERNIGHT AS
AFOREMENTIONED WAVE INTERACTS WITH AN APPROACHING ELEVATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE SUBSTANTIAL DRYING ALOFT AS
WEAK UPPER RIDGING APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. AS THIS OCCURS...ICE
CRYSTAL GROWTH POTENTIAL WILL DECREASE WITH LOSS OF
SATURATION...THUS INTRODUCING THE POTENTIAL FOR -FZDZ ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AS MOISTURE REMAINS CONFINED IN THE LOWEST 10KFT.
WITH ONLY LIGHT QPF EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT...ANY -FZDZ THAT DEVELOPS WILL LIKELY BE PATCHY IN
NATURE AND HAVE DECIDED TO JUST ADVERTISE POTENTIAL IN THE HWO
PRODUCT FOR NOW. WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER ALOFT...OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BY WED...SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND ELEVATED FRONT WILL BE DEPARTING TO
OUR EAST AS WEAK UPPER RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST IN
ADVANCE OF A CENTRAL PLAINS TROUGH. DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN HOW
QUICKLY PRECIP WILL EXIT TO THE EAST WED MORNING...BUT MODEL
INDICATIONS SUGGEST IMPROVING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. HAVE MAINTAINED SLGT CHC MENTION ACROSS
THE EASTERN CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON HRS...WITH MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED WED NIGHT AREA WIDE AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OVER THE AREA. HIGH TEMPS WED SHOULD WARM INTO THE UPPER 30S
TO NEAR 40 ALONG AND WEST OF I-81...WITH COOLER VALUES EXPECTED TO
THE EAST.
AFOREMENTIONED PLAINS DISTURBANCE WILL THEN TAKE AIM AT THE REGION BY
EARLY THU MORNING. PER CURRENT MODEL TRENDS...DRY NEAR SURFACE
LAYER CONDITIONS WILL REQUIRE COLUMN SATURATION BEFORE PRECIP
MAKES ITS WAY TO THE GROUND...AND HAVE ELECTED TO DELAY THE
PRECIP ARRIVAL TIME BY A FEW HRS THU MORNING AS A RESULT. WHEN PRECIP
DOES ARRIVE AFTER 12Z...MAIN CONCERN WILL BE PRECIP TYPE. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING OFF TO OUR EAST COMBINED WITH AN APPROACHING WARM
FRONT SUGGEST WE MAY RECEIVE A BRIEF WINTRY MIX THU MORNING BEFORE
BULK OF ACTIVITY TRANSITIONS INTO RA AS REGION GETS ENTRENCHED IN
THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF MAIN COLD FRONT. CURRENT LOW TRACK TAKES LOW
FROM NEAR DETROIT NORTHEAST TO NORTH BAY, ON WHICH CERTAINLY IS
REMINISCENT OF ANY SIGNIFICANT MIXED PRECIP EVENTS. THAT
SAID...MAIN AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY WERE AGEOSTROPIC WIND CIRCULATIONS MAY KEEP COLD AIR
ENTRENCHED FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME. ALL TOLD...HAVE DECIDED TO
ENTER A WINTRY MIX MENTION IN THE MORNING...WITH WITH A GRADUAL
CHANGEOVER TO RA AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. WILL CERTAINLY HAVE TO
WATCH TRENDS IN THE COMING DAYS TO PIN DOWN THE DETAILS AS THE
EVENT NEARS.
BY THU NIGHT...MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE POST FRONTAL WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION SLOWLY WORKING INTO THE AREA. LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE FRI AS WESTERLY WINDS DOWN THE LENGTH OF THE
LAKE COMBINE WITH H85 TEMPS -11C. CURRENT BUFKIT PROFILES SUGGEST
BEST POTENTIAL FOR ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT WILL BE NORTH OF CWA IN
WELL ALIGNED 270-280 FLOW HOWEVER MEAGER INVERSION HEIGHTS
HOWEVER MAY BE A LIMITING FACTOR.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE
NORTHEAST ALONG WITH A WEAK SFC LOW MOVING THROUGH THE REGION ON
SATURDAY. THESE FEATURES WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC
POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK. SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS THERE COULD BE A MIX OF RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
NORTHEAST AS SFC HIGH PRES FROM CENTRAL CANADA DROPS SOUTH AND
RESIDES OVER THE AREA. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
PERIOD.
TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMS.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES IN THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, NORTHWEST
WIND BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING IMPROVING CONDITIONS. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH ATTM IS PRODUCING LIGHT SNOW OR
DRIZZLE, THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING. CIGS WILL
LOWER LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE MVFR/LOW MVFR CATEGORY. AT
KITH/KBGM, IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 09Z-13Z. NORTHWEST FLOW
BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BRING LOW LEVEL DRYING AND IMPROVEMENT
INTO THE MVFR/VFR RANGE.
LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME WESTERLY TOWARD DAYBREAK THEN
NORTHWEST BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AROUND 10 KNOTS.
.OUTLOOK...
WED NGT...VFR.
THUR...IFR/MVFR IN -SHRA AND PSBLY SOME MIXED PCPN AT ONSET.
FRI/SAT...MAINLY VFR.
SUN...VFR...PSBL MVFR/IFR PA WITH SNOW.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CMG
NEAR TERM...CMG/HEDEN
SHORT TERM...CMG
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...RRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
943 AM CST MON FEB 13 2012
.DISCUSSION...FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR UPDATE CONCERNS CLOUD TRENDS
AND TEMPERATURES. TWO AREAS OF CLOUD COVER OF INTEREST TODAY. MID
LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW ACROSS NW CORNER OF ND TO
DRIFT EASTWARD TODAY BUT NOT LIKELY TO HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON
TEMPERATURES. THE OTHER AREA IS THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF A CLOUD
SHIELD ACROSS SE FA FROM CENTRAL PLAINS SYSTEM. RUC SEEMS TO HAVE A
GOOD HANDLE ON CLOUD TRENDS EXPANDING CLOUDS NORTHWARD ACROSS FAR
EASTERN FA WHILE WHOLE CLOUD SHIELD PROPAGATES SLOWLY EAST. SO WITH
CLOUDS HOLDING LONGER ACROSS FAR E-SE FA WILL NEED TO LOWER
TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES. OTHERWISE MAXIMUM VALUES LOOK GOOD
AS TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER TO AT OR A LITTLE WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY MAXIMUMS WITH WARMER START...SOLAR AND CONTINUED WEAK WARM
ADVECTION ALTHOUGH MIXING WILL BE LIGHT. WILL MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
TO CLOUD COVER OTHERWISE FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. COULD
BE SOME MID-LEVEL (10KFT) CIGS TODAY WITH LOWER VFR CIGS ACROSS MN
LAKES COUNTRY.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
VOELKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
307 PM CST MON FEB 13 2012
.DISCUSSION...
ALTHOUGH STILL SOMEWHAT GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON... WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT OVERNIGHT. BUT WITH THESE LIGHTER WINDS... THE REDEVELOPMENT
OF A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER /AND FRESH SNOW IN SOME LOCATIONS/ WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. THE RUC... HRRR AND NAM
ARE VERY AGGRESSIVE WITH FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT AND A FOG
ADVISORY OR EVEN A FREEZING FOG ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED
TONIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING BUT WILL NOT ISSUE WITH THIS PACKAGE YET.
WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY WITH
PRECIP MOVING EAST FOLLOWED BY GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS BEHIND A
DRYLINE. LATER IN THE FORECAST... HAVE ADDED LOW POPS FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH SOME QPF SIGNAL FROM BOTH GFS AND ECMWF... BUT
OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE EXTENDED
PERIODS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 28 58 41 60 / 0 0 20 50
HOBART OK 26 54 39 61 / 0 0 10 20
WICHITA FALLS TX 33 65 46 69 / 0 0 30 40
GAGE OK 19 57 34 57 / 0 0 10 10
PONCA CITY OK 21 50 40 58 / 0 0 20 60
DURANT OK 35 57 50 70 / 0 0 30 70
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
01/01
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PORTLAND OR
306 PM PST TUE FEB 14 2012
.SYNOPSIS...A POTENT BUT COMPACT UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
DISTRICT AND QUICKLY MOVE SOUTH OVERNIGHT. EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
WITH SMALL HAIL AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. THIS WILL BE A
SNOW LEVELS ARE AROUND 1000 FEET. HEAVIER SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE SMALL
HAIL OR A BRIEF PERIOD OF WET SNOW DOWN TO LOWER ELEVATIONS. EXPECT
SNOW COVERED ROADS IN THE CASCADES. THE UPPER LOW WILL DIG SOUTH
INTO THE SIERRA NEVADA LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY WED WITH DRIER
WEATHER DEVELOPING FOR OUR AREA. WET WEATHER WILL RETURN LATER THIS
WEEK...WITH A WEAK SYSTEM THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY A MUCH STRONGER AND
POTENTIALLY WINDY SYSTEM LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY...
SHOWERS HAVE BECOME A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE COLD CORE SHIFTS SOUTH...WITH REPORTS OF SMALL HAIL
(0.25") AT THE COAST AND INLAND...INCLUDING REPORTS AT TILLAMOOK..1 N
OF BLODGETT IN BENTON COUNTY... AND EUGENE. WE HAVE ALSO SEEN GUSTY
WINDS WITH THESE SHOWERS. LATEST RUC MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS VERY
LIMITED...YET SLIGHTLY INCREASING INSTABILITY...ABOUT 100 J/KG OF
MOST UNSTABLE CAPE. CLOUD TOPS PER IR IMAGERY CONFIRMS THIS WITH
COLDER TOPS IN THE RECENT SCANS. THIS ENHANCEMENT IS OUT AHEAD OF A
WAVE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SOUTHWARD MOVING UPPER LOW. YOU CAN EVEN
MAKE OUT A SWIRL IN THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY OFF THE WA COAST.
EXPECT A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SMALL HAIL AND MAYBE AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO AS THE COLDEST AIR ALOFT...-32 C AT 500 MB
CURRENTLY ANALYZED OVER SW WASHINGTON IS STILL MOVING THIS WAY.
EXPECT BRIEF GUSTY WINDS TO 30 MPH OR SO IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS.
EXPECT SNOW COVERED ROADS IN THE CASCADE PASSES WITH 2-4" STILL
POSSIBLE...WITH SOME ACCUMS IN THE COAST RANGE PASSES WITH A FEW
INCHES IN THE HIGHEST COAST RANGE LOCALES AND CASCADE FOOTHILLS FROM
750 FT AND HIGHER. ONE TO THREE INCHES STILL PLAUSIBLE BEFORE ALL IS
SAID AND DONE. STILL WILL NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE WET SNOW FLAKES
MIXED AT LOW ELEVATIONS...BUT SFC TEMPS ARE WELL ABOVE FREEZING.
A WHILE A COLD CORE FUNNEL CHANCE IS NOT ZERO...IT IS REALLY LOW...AS
LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE WEAKENING...LIMITING THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR.
A 120 KT+ JET OFF THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON WILL DRIVE THE UPPER
LOW SOUTH INTO CALIFORNIA...WITH INSTABILITY AND SHOWERS TAPERING OFF
TONIGHT. FLOW TURNS NORTHERLY OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL HELP TO DRY THINGS
OUT...THOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING MOISTURE AND ENERGY WHICH
WILL KEEP SHOWERS FROM CLEARING OUR AREA UNTIL LATER TONIGHT.
WITH PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING BEHIND THE SYSTEM AND
WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW LATE TONIGHT AND WED...WED MORNING WILL LIKELY
START OFF CLOUDY WITH RATHER SLOW CLEARING. THIS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS IN
THE 40S FOR MOST AREAS.. ANOTHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
ON THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WEAKENING AND WILL ALSO BE A BIT
WARMER SYSTEM AS IT MOVES ONSHORE SINCE IT BARELY WEAKENS THE UPPER
RIDGE LEFT OVER FROM WEDNESDAY. STILL...THE MODELS INDICATE MOST OF
OUR FORECAST AREA WILL SEE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION THURSDAY.
FRIDAY IS NOT LOOKING QUITE AS DRY...AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LAYER
DOWN FROM THURSDAYS SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH CONTINUED WARM
ADVECTION AND MOIST ONSHORE FLOW...THOUGH IT DOES LOOK MILDER WITH
850 TEMPS HITTING THEIR HIGHEST MARKS OF THE WEEK. THIS IS AHEAD OF A
STRONGER SYSTEM PROGGED TO SLIDE IN FRI EVENING INTO
SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO HAVE SPED UP A BIT IN THE CURRENT
MODEL RUNS...AND THUS HAVE BROUGHT LIKELY POPS TO THE COAST IN THE
AFTERNOON...THOUGH NOT AS HIGH AS CURRENT MODEL RUNS WOULD
SUGGEST...GIVEN THE QUICK SPEED UP FROM YESTERDAY`S MODEL
GUIDANCE...AND DUE TO COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORS...BUT IF THE TREND
CONTINUES...POPS WILL CONTINUE TO HEAD ON UP IN THE AFTERNOON. KMD
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
A SLIGHTLY STRONGER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA FRI EVENING AND SLIDES
INLAND SATURDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO HAVE SPED UP A BIT IN
THE CURRENT MODEL RUNS. THIS SYSTEM BRINGS A CLOSED SFC LOW CLOSE TO
THE COAST...THOUGH MODELS DIFFER ON THE LOCATION THE LOW COMES
ASHORE. DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION...THE COAST COULD SEE A DECENT
ROUND OF STRONG WINDS OVERNIGHT FRI NIGHT...SO THIS BEARS WATCHING.
THIS SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH SATURDAY WITH SNOW LEVELS DROPPING
DRAMATICALLY BEHIND IT. FOR NOW...A GOOD AMOUNT OF SNOW ACCUMULATION
IS POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND. ADDITIONAL SYSTEMS RIDING A STRONG JET
TO THE NORTH ATTEMPT TO BREAK THROUGH AN OFFSHORE RIDGE INTO NEXT
WEEK. WITH NO REAL AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SYSTEMS HAVE
KEPT THE FORECAST AREA UNDER GENERAL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH
MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. KMD/BROWN
&&
.AVIATION...EXPECT MIX OF VFR AND MVFR THIS EVENING WITH DECREASING
SHOWERS. MVFR WILL BE CONFINED TO SHOWERS THIS EVENING WITH SOME
MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR AND LOCAL IFR DEVELOPING EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR WITH SOME MVFR CIGS IN SHOWERS EXPECTED
EARLY THIS EVENING. SHOWERS WILL DECREASE LATER THIS EVENING WITH
FOG OR STRATUS DEVELOPING AFTER 12Z. FOG AND LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BURN
OFF AROUND 18Z.
&&
.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS AND WINDS WILL DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. NEAR
SHORE WINDS WILL DECREASE BY AROUND 00Z AND WINDS OVER THE OUTER
WATERS WILL DROP OFF AROUND MIDNIGHT. HAZARDOUS SEAS REMAINS THROUGH
WED AS 12 TO 14 FT SWELL WILL CONTINUE. NEXT SYSTEM TO BRING
ADVISORY STRENGTH WINDS ON THU AND A STRONGER SYSTEM LATER FRI INTO
SAT. THE ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PST THIS EVENING
FOR WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60
NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON FOR
WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WAS TO FLORENCE ORE OUT 10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM PST
WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR
UNTIL 4 PM PST WEDNESDAY.
&&
$$
MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
943 PM CST TUE FEB 14 2012
.DISCUSSION...LOW STRATUS CONTINUES TO THICKEN AND LOWER ACROSS S
TX THIS EVENING WITH SOUTHERLY LLJ DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN
ZONES. 00Z KCRP RAOB INDICATES SATURATED AIRMASS FROM SFC TO H8
AND WITH STRENGTHENING LLJ ISOLATED SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP
TONIGHT ALONG WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE. FOG ALSO POSSIBLE TONIGHT BUT
WILL BE HEAVILY DEPENDENT ON HOW ELEVATED SURFACE WINDS ARE. BEST
CHANCES OF ANY DENSE FOG SHOULD BE ACROSS RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND
BRUSH COUNTRY WHERE WINDS ARE LIKELY TO BE THE LIGHTEST. UPDATES
TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING WERE TO ADD CHANCES OF
SPRINKLES...DRIZZLE...AND LIGHT SHOWERS TO REMAINDER OF TONIGHT.
ALSO DECREASED WIND SPEEDS ACROSS WESTERN ZONES AND INCREASED
SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE EAST. STRONGEST WINDS UNDER LLJ CORE MAY PEAK
BETWEEN 04 AND 09Z AND THEN BECOME LIGHTER CLOSER TO SUNRISE. ALSO
INCREASED WINDS ACROSS AREA BAYS AND WATERWAYS SLIGHTLY. UPDATED
PRODUCTS TO BE SENT SHORTLY. NO CHANGES MADE BEYOND TONIGHT. STILL
LOOKS LIKE A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS NE ZONES ON
WED BUT LIMITING FACTOR /ACCORDING TO NAM/ MAY BE SW LOW LEVEL
WIND PROFILE. WILL LET UPCOMING MID SHIFT ANALYZE 00Z GUIDANCE
FURTHER BEFORE MAKING ANY CHANGES TO WED.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 555 PM CST TUE FEB 14 2012/
DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION FOR 00Z TAFS.
AVIATION...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS WHILE
MIXING/CLEARING HAS OCCURRED OVER THE WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY FINALLY.
MVFR CEILINGS ARE PREVALENT OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS WITH IFR CEILINGS
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE TO
25 TO 30 KNOTS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EAST FROM THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING MOVES EAST TOWARD THE OZARKS BY
LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT LOW CEILINGS/FOG TO MOVE BACK ACROSS
SOUTH TEXAS BY LATE THIS EVENING WITH LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS PREVALENT
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT INTO MID-MORNING. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE MOVING INTO WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY BY
15Z WEDNESDAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE OVER THE
VICTORIA CROSSROADS FROM 15-20Z. MVFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST OVER
THE COASTAL PLAINS INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN THE DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MOVES TOWARD THE COAST AND WINDS SHIFT TO NORTH-NORTHWEST. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE PREVALENT ACROSS THE REGION EXCEPT AROUND THE
VCT AREA WHERE MVFR CIGS COULD PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 PM CST TUE FEB 14 2012/
DISCUSSION...18Z GUIDANCE AND LATEST HRRR INDICATE LIGHT PRECIP
WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND WITH AREA OBS AND KCRP RADAR
INDICATING PRECIP ALREADY OCCURRING...HAVE ADDED MENTION OF PATCHY
DRIZZLE AND ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR THE EVENING HOURS. ALSO ADJUSTED
HOURLY TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY FORECAST FOR THIS EVENING DUE TO
TODAY/S MAX TEMPS BEING SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY
EXPECTED. UPDATED PRODUCTS TO BE SENT SHORTLY. NO CHANGES TO
FORECAST MADE BEYOND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH THIS UPDATE.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 PM CST TUE FEB 14 2012/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...LOW LEVEL JET WILL
INCREASE TO 30-35KTS TONIGHT WHICH WILL USHER DEEPER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO S TX. MOS GUIDANCE AND FCST SOUNDINGS ALL SHOW
FOG...POSSIBLY DENSE...TONIGHT/WED MORNING. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AND ELEVATED SFC WINDS...THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW LOW VISIBILITIES WILL DROP. HAVE INTRODUCED A
MENTION OF AREAS OF FOG BUT NO MENTION OF DENSE. PRECIP CHCS WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE BY WED MORNING AS AN UPPER LOW TRACKS TOWARD THE TX
PANHANDLE WITH EMBEDDED ENERGY/STRONG UPPER JET MOVING ACROSS TX. A
COLD FRONT IS PROGD TO MOVE INTO THE W CWA LATE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON...TRACKING E TO SE AND REACHING THE COAST LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THE FRONTAL BDRY WILL PROVIDE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NE CWA. BEST CHC OF
SHRA`S/TSRA`S WILL BE ACROSS THE NE CWA DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE
UPPER JET...HIGHEST CAPE...LOWEST CIN...DEEPEST MOISTURE. ALTHOUGH
THE UPPER JET WILL PROVIDE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR TSRA`S...THE JET
CORE/BEST ENERGY WILL BE MUCH FARTHER N...THEREFORE AM NOT EXPECTING
SEVERE TSRA`S AT THIS TIME. A FEW MAY BECOME STRONG ACROSS THE NE
CWA DUE TO A BRIEF WINDOW WHERE CAPE...HELICITY AND LIFT WILL BE IN
PLACE. HAVE SHOWN A TREND WITH THE POPS DECREASING ACROSS THE W AND
INCREASING ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AS THE UPPER SYSTEM MOVES E AND
THE FRONTAL BDRY MOVES OFFSHORE. DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL
FILTER INTO S TX WED NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT.
MARINE...PATCHY SEA FOG CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT AS DEWPOINTS
INCREASE ACROSS RELATIVELY COOLER WATER. THIS IS DUE TO INCREASING
SLY WINDS DVLPG TONIGHT TO MOD LEVELS...MAINLY ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
WATERS. WINDS WILL RELAX THROUGH WED AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO S TX. THE CHANCE FOR SHRA`S AND TSRA`S WILL INCREASE WED
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY WED EVENING AHD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH RAIN
CHCS DECREASING WED NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES S AND E OF THE
AREA. A WEAK TO MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED LATE WED
NIGHT/EARLY THU MORNING.
LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS
DETERMINE RAIN CHANCES...IF AND WHEN. COLD FRONT IS COMING DOWN ON
THURSDAY...AND MODELS ARE DRYING OUT THE LOWER AND MID LEVELS.
THUS...THINK ANY QPF THAT MODELS ARE GENERATING ARE OVER-DONE.
HOWEVER...BETTER MID LEVEL MOISTURE DOES RETURN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
SO WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT ON
THURSDAY NIGHT. ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE FRIDAY PROVIDES A CHANCE FOR SOME
LIGHT RAIN...THEN APPROACH OF UPPER TROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT PROVIDES A
GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN AND POSSIBLE ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. GFS IS NOW A BIT FASTER THAN ECMWF.. UKMET...AND
CANADIAN. THE GFS TIMING/MOVEMENT WOULD MEAN LOWER POPS WEST
SATURDAY MORNING. DUE TO SLIGHT MODEL CHANGES FROM RUN TO
RUN...GENERALLY HAVE KEPT SIMILAR POPS IN FOR SATURDAY MORNING OUT
EAST AS HAVE ON FRIDAY LATE NIGHT...BUT DECREASED THEM A BIT TO THE
WEST FROM FRIDAY NIGHTS POPS. FRONT COMES DOWN ON SATURDAY AS
SURFACE LOW/COASTAL TROUGH MOVES EAST...WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. SINCE RETURN FLOW RESUMES BY
MONDAY...COULD NOT RULE OUT SOME CONVECTION LATE MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM WEST. HOWEVER...THE
IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM IMPACTS MAY BE A BIT TOO FAR NORTH FOR ANY
NOTABLE RAIN CHANCES SO LEFT OFF (MODELS HAVE BEEN FLIP-FLOPPING ON
THAT TOO). SUMMARY FOR TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY ON THE COOL SIDE
THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY (ISENTROPIC LIFT/RAIN-COOLED
AIR)...CONTINUES ON SATURDAY BEHIND FRONT. GRADUAL WARM UP BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH THE RETURN FLOW.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 65 80 57 69 53 / 20 30 10 10 20
VICTORIA 64 77 53 66 48 / 20 50 20 10 10
LAREDO 62 85 57 71 53 / 10 10 10 10 20
ALICE 65 81 55 69 51 / 20 30 10 10 20
ROCKPORT 63 77 57 66 50 / 20 40 20 10 20
COTULLA 60 80 52 68 48 / 10 20 10 10 10
KINGSVILLE 65 81 57 69 50 / 20 20 10 10 20
NAVY CORPUS 66 76 58 68 55 / 20 30 10 10 20
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HART/79
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
555 PM CST TUE FEB 14 2012
.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION FOR 00Z TAFS.
&&
.AVIATION...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS WHILE
MIXING/CLEARING HAS OCCURRED OVER THE WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY FINALLY.
MVFR CEILINGS ARE PREVALENT OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS WITH IFR CEILINGS
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE TO
25 TO 30 KNOTS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EAST FROM THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING MOVES EAST TOWARD THE OZARKS BY
LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT LOW CEILINGS/FOG TO MOVE BACK ACROSS
SOUTH TEXAS BY LATE THIS EVENING WITH LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS PREVALENT
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT INTO MID-MORNING. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE MOVING INTO WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY BY
15Z WEDNESDAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE OVER THE
VICTORIA CROSSROADS FROM 15-20Z. MVFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST OVER
THE COASTAL PLAINS INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN THE DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MOVES TOWARD THE COAST AND WINDS SHIFT TO NORTH-NORTHWEST. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE PREVALENT ACROSS THE REGION EXCEPT AROUND THE
VCT AREA WHERE MVFR CIGS COULD PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 PM CST TUE FEB 14 2012/
DISCUSSION...18Z GUIDANCE AND LATEST HRRR INDICATE LIGHT PRECIP
WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND WITH AREA OBS AND KCRP RADAR
INDICATING PRECIP ALREADY OCCURRING...HAVE ADDED MENTION OF PATCHY
DRIZZLE AND ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR THE EVENING HOURS. ALSO ADJUSTED
HOURLY TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY FORECAST FOR THIS EVENING DUE TO
TODAY/S MAX TEMPS BEING SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY
EXPECTED. UPDATED PRODUCTS TO BE SENT SHORTLY. NO CHANGES TO
FORECAST MADE BEYOND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH THIS UPDATE.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 PM CST TUE FEB 14 2012/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...LOW LEVEL JET WILL
INCREASE TO 30-35KTS TONIGHT WHICH WILL USHER DEEPER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO S TX. MOS GUIDANCE AND FCST SOUNDINGS ALL SHOW
FOG...POSSIBLY DENSE...TONIGHT/WED MORNING. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AND ELEVATED SFC WINDS...THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW LOW VISIBILITIES WILL DROP. HAVE INTRODUCED A
MENTION OF AREAS OF FOG BUT NO MENTION OF DENSE. PRECIP CHCS WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE BY WED MORNING AS AN UPPER LOW TRACKS TOWARD THE TX
PANHANDLE WITH EMBEDDED ENERGY/STRONG UPPER JET MOVING ACROSS TX. A
COLD FRONT IS PROGD TO MOVE INTO THE W CWA LATE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON...TRACKING E TO SE AND REACHING THE COAST LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THE FRONTAL BDRY WILL PROVIDE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NE CWA. BEST CHC OF
SHRA`S/TSRA`S WILL BE ACROSS THE NE CWA DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE
UPPER JET...HIGHEST CAPE...LOWEST CIN...DEEPEST MOISTURE. ALTHOUGH
THE UPPER JET WILL PROVIDE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR TSRA`S...THE JET
CORE/BEST ENERGY WILL BE MUCH FARTHER N...THEREFORE AM NOT EXPECTING
SEVERE TSRA`S AT THIS TIME. A FEW MAY BECOME STRONG ACROSS THE NE
CWA DUE TO A BRIEF WINDOW WHERE CAPE...HELICITY AND LIFT WILL BE IN
PLACE. HAVE SHOWN A TREND WITH THE POPS DECREASING ACROSS THE W AND
INCREASING ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AS THE UPPER SYSTEM MOVES E AND
THE FRONTAL BDRY MOVES OFFSHORE. DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL
FILTER INTO S TX WED NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT.
MARINE...PATCHY SEA FOG CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT AS DEWPOINTS
INCREASE ACROSS RELATIVELY COOLER WATER. THIS IS DUE TO INCREASING
SLY WINDS DVLPG TONIGHT TO MOD LEVELS...MAINLY ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
WATERS. WINDS WILL RELAX THROUGH WED AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO S TX. THE CHANCE FOR SHRA`S AND TSRA`S WILL INCREASE WED
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY WED EVENING AHD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH RAIN
CHCS DECREASING WED NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES S AND E OF THE
AREA. A WEAK TO MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED LATE WED
NIGHT/EARLY THU MORNING.
LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS
DETERMINE RAIN CHANCES...IF AND WHEN. COLD FRONT IS COMING DOWN ON
THURSDAY...AND MODELS ARE DRYING OUT THE LOWER AND MID LEVELS.
THUS...THINK ANY QPF THAT MODELS ARE GENERATING ARE OVER-DONE.
HOWEVER...BETTER MID LEVEL MOISTURE DOES RETURN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
SO WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT ON
THURSDAY NIGHT. ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE FRIDAY PROVIDES A CHANCE FOR SOME
LIGHT RAIN...THEN APPROACH OF UPPER TROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT PROVIDES A
GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN AND POSSIBLE ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. GFS IS NOW A BIT FASTER THAN ECMWF.. UKMET...AND
CANADIAN. THE GFS TIMING/MOVEMENT WOULD MEAN LOWER POPS WEST
SATURDAY MORNING. DUE TO SLIGHT MODEL CHANGES FROM RUN TO
RUN...GENERALLY HAVE KEPT SIMILAR POPS IN FOR SATURDAY MORNING OUT
EAST AS HAVE ON FRIDAY LATE NIGHT...BUT DECREASED THEM A BIT TO THE
WEST FROM FRIDAY NIGHTS POPS. FRONT COMES DOWN ON SATURDAY AS
SURFACE LOW/COASTAL TROUGH MOVES EAST...WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. SINCE RETURN FLOW RESUMES BY
MONDAY...COULD NOT RULE OUT SOME CONVECTION LATE MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM WEST. HOWEVER...THE
IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM IMPACTS MAY BE A BIT TOO FAR NORTH FOR ANY
NOTABLE RAIN CHANCES SO LEFT OFF (MODELS HAVE BEEN FLIP-FLOPPING ON
THAT TOO). SUMMARY FOR TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY ON THE COOL SIDE
THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY (ISENTROPIC LIFT/RAIN-COOLED
AIR)...CONTINUES ON SATURDAY BEHIND FRONT. GRADUAL WARM UP BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH THE RETURN FLOW.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 65 80 57 69 53 / 20 30 10 10 20
VICTORIA 64 77 53 66 48 / 20 50 20 10 10
LAREDO 62 85 57 71 53 / 10 10 10 10 20
ALICE 65 81 55 69 51 / 20 30 10 10 20
ROCKPORT 63 77 57 66 50 / 20 40 20 10 20
COTULLA 60 80 52 68 48 / 10 20 10 10 10
KINGSVILLE 65 81 57 69 50 / 20 20 10 10 20
NAVY CORPUS 66 76 58 68 55 / 20 30 10 10 20
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
TMT/89...AVIATION
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1209 PM CST MON FEB 13 2012
.UPDATE...
TEMPS EXPECTED TO HOLD FAIRLY STEADY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SURFACE
OBS INDICATING VERY DRY AIR IN NORTHEAST HALF OF CWA WITH DEWPOINTS
MOSTLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. AREA OF SNOWFALL ADVANCING
NORTHEASTWARD...WITH TIMING GENERALLY ON TRACK WITH PREVIOUS
FORECAST. THE SNOW WILL HAVE TO OVERCOME THE DRY AIR...BUT OBS
SUGGEST IT WILL DO SO FAIRLY QUICKLY ONCE OVERHEAD. 1200Z NAM/GFS
QPF ALONG WITH MORNING HRRR REFLECTIVITY/QPF SUPPORTED CATEGORICAL
POPS FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON PERIOD. STILL EXPECTING AROUND AN INCH
THIS AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHWEST...AND A DUSTING NORTHEAST.
&&
.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...
SNOW CURRENTLY MOVING INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
DID NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES TO TAFS...WITH EVERYTHING LOOKING MAINLY
ON TRACK. PERIOD OF MORE MODERATE SNOWFALL WILL LIKELY BE FROM MID
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...WITH LIGHT SNOW THEN LINGERING
THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS STILL
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND AN INCH...GIVE OR TAKE A HALF AN INCH.
MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY FOR FREEZING
DRIZZLE LATER TONIGHT INTO THE MORNING...THOUGH CHANCE SEEMS TOO
SMALL TO MENTION IN TAFS FOR NOW.
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LOWER TO IFR AS THE MORE MODERATE SNOW
MOVES IN...WITH IFR/MVFR CIGS PROBABLY HANGING AROUND FOR MUCH OF
TUESDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM CST MON FEB 13 2012/
TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH
SNOW UNDER ENHANCED CLOUDS ON IR SATELLITE LOOPS FROM EASTERN
OKLAHOMA UP INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA RIDING CONVERGENCE ON NOSE OF
30-50KT LOW-LEVEL JET...AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN EASTERN
COLORADO. CURRENT PRECIPITATION IS IN REGION OF STRONG 850-700MB
Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND NARROW AXIS OF INCREASING MOISTURE/LOW TO
MID 20F DEW POINTS/ AS GULF MOISTURE IS TAPPED BY SOUTHERLY FLOW
BETWEEN SPRAWLING SURFACE HIGH CENTERED ON MS/AL BORDER AT 07Z AND
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW IN EASTERN COLORADO.
MODELS WEAKEN THESE LOW LEVEL WINDS AS THEY APPROACH THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES...WITH THE NAM AND ECMWF KEEPING THE 30+ KNOT LOW-LEVEL
WINDS AND ASSOCIATED 850 MB CONVERGENCE MAINLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE
STATE THOUGH BRUSHING SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z...WHILE
GFS BRINGS CONVERGENCE FARTHER NORTH INTO THE STATE.
OMEGA ON SOUNDINGS IS WEAK OVERALL...AND MAINLY DUE TO DIFFERENTIAL
CVA AHEAD OF VORTICITY MAXIMA AND 700MB WARM AIR ADVECTION LIFTING
INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...AS WE ARE ACTUALLY COLD ADVECTING AT 850
MB. THIS REFLECTED IN BETTER 700MB AND ABOVE LAYER Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE OVER SRN WI...WHILE THE STRONGER 850-700MB Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE REMAINS IN CENTRAL/SRN IL.
LIFT OVER WISCONSIN IS FURTHER AIDED BY BROAD AREA OF WEAK UPPER
DIVERGENCE DUE TO DIFFLUENT FLOW AHEAD OF TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING. LIFT WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO ACT WITH INCREASING
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE...AS THE MID-20 DEW POINTS MOVE INTO THE REGION
AND OVERCOME INITIALLY VERY DRY LOW LAYERS...TO PRODUCE A RATHER
PROLONGED PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW THOUGH ACCUMULATIONS WILL MAINLY
OCCUR IN THE MIDDLE 3 OR 4 HOURS WITH BETTER OMEGA.
WITH SNOW/LIQUID RATIOS BETWEEN 13:1 AND 15:1 DURING THE EVENT AND
QPF FROM AROUND 0.05 INCH IN THE FAR NORTHEAST TO AROUND 0.10 IN THE
SOUTHWEST...SNOW TOTALS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 1/2 INCH IN THE
NORTHEAST...TO AROUND 1 INCH IN A CORRIDOR CENTERED FROM KENOSHA TO
MADISON TO THE DELLS...WITH BETWEEN 1 INCH AND 1.5 INCHES TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE ONE INCH CORRIDOR. MOST OF THESE ACCUMULATIONS WILL
BE REACHED BY 06Z.
WHILE NOT AS MUCH FILTERED SUNSHINE AS ORIGINALLY EXPECTED IN THE
SOUTHWEST...STILL SOME WEAK MORNING SUN NORTHEAST AND EAST TO BRING
HIGHS INTO THE MID 30S BEFORE THE SNOW BEGINS...WHILE THE WEST WILL
SEE MAINLY LOWER 30S.
TOP-DOWN PRECIPITATION TYPE METHODOLOGY SUGGESTS A POTENTIAL FOR
FREEZING DRIZZLE AFTER 06Z TO 09Z IN THE SOUTHEAST AS WEAK 700 MB
DRY PUNCH DRIES OUT THE DENDRITE GROWTH ZONE...WHICH IS AT/ABOVE
700 MB. LOW CONFIDENCE BUT WILL ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FZDZ AFTER
09Z IN SOUTHEAST. CLOUDS AND ABSENCE OF COLD ADVECTION WITH WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH AXIS NOT PASSING THROUGH REGION UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S MOST OF THE NIGHT...WITH A
DIP INTO THE MID 20S JUST BEFORE DAWN.
SHORT TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
MEDIUM.
NAM/GFS/CANADIAN MODELS SHOWING SOME LIGHT QPF LINGERING ACROSS
THE AREA DURING THE MORNING ON TUESDAY...AS VORTICITY MAXIMUM
SHIFTS EAST THROUGH THE AREA. FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE SEEN ON
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DURING THIS TIME...SO KEPT POPS GOING. DENDRITE
ZONE LOSES SATURATION...SO POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE
EXISTS DURING THE MORNING. DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE AREA DURING
THE AFTERNOON SHOULD BRING AN END TO THE LIGHT SNOW/LIGHT FREEZING
DRIZZLE.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD BRING SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS. NAM HOLDS
ONTO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TUESDAY THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY...WITH
THE GFS NOT SHOWING THIS LAYER. WEAK LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION
ON WEDNESDAY WOULD HELP ANY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGER. INCREASED
CLOUD COVER FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL AFFECT
TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME...AND KEPT HIGHS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S...AND INCREASE LOWS TUESDAY
NIGHT IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30.
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
MEDIUM.
MAIN ISSUE IS POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY ACROSS THE AREA. GFS/ECMWF GENERALLY SHOWING LOW PRESSURE
MOVING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE WEDNESDAY TO FAR NORTHWEST
INDIANA BY 12Z THURSDAY. THE CANADIAN HAS THE LOW FURTHER INTO FAR
EASTERN IOWA AT 12Z THURSDAY...WITH THE NAM SLOWER AND OVER
NORTHEAST ILLINOIS. THESE LOW POSITIONS REFLECT THE POSITIONS OF
THE NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN EACH OF THE MODELS. WILL
FOLLOW THE ECMWF/GFS MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM.
ORGANIZED MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS RESPONSE BAND PUSHES SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HELPING
ENHANCE UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION ACROSS THE AREA. GOOD AMOUNT OF QPF
MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH GRADUALLY LOWER AMOUNTS
THURSDAY AS SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. MILD AIR OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WILL ALLOW
FOR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW...REDUCING SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS
THERE. GIVEN THE EXPECTED QPF AMOUNTS...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO
4 INCHES APPEAR LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. THE FAR SOUTHEAST
WILL SEE LOWER AMOUNTS WITH THE MILDER AIR ALLOWING FOR A MIX.
KEPT LIKELY POPS IN THE SOUTH AND EAST FOR MOST OF THIS PERIOD.
QUIET WEATHER FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...SO FOLLOWED
CONSENSUS POPS AND TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...
CIRRUS AHEAD OF APPROACHING TROUGH CURRENTLY SPREADING INTO
REGION...WITH CLOUDS TO THICKEN AND SLOWLY LOWER THROUGH THE
MORNING. VFR CIGS UNTIL MIDDAY WITH NOTHING LOWER THAN 4K FT...THEN
A RAPID DROP TO MVFR AROUND 1400 TO 1500 FEET FROM WEST TO EAST
AFTER 18Z ALONG WITH LIGHT SNOW. VISIBILITIES MAINLY 3-5 MILES WITH
THE LIGHT SNOW...THOUGH AN OCCASIONAL 1-2SM DURING THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON AT KMSN AND LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING AT EASTERN TAF SITES
WHEN ACCUMULATIONS ARE MOST LIKELY. ONLY LOOKING AT AROUND AN INCH
AT TAF SITES WITH THESE TOTALS BEING REACHED BY 06Z. SOME
INDICATIONS OF PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE...ESPECIALLY AT THE EASTERN
TAF SITES AFTER 09Z TUESDAY...BUT TOO LOW A CHANCE TO MENTION AT
THIS TIME.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WIMBERLEY/DDV
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...REM
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WOOD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1144 AM CST MON FEB 13 2012
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY
257 AM CST MON FEB 13 2012
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON SNOW FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...THEN A
SYSTEM TO WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
CURRENTLY AS OF 08Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED RIDGING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA...SHORTWAVE TROUGHING
DROPPING INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...A BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND RIDGING UP AND DOWN THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS IN SUBSIDENCE
UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE...AS WELL AS IN AN AXIS OF DRY AIR ASSOCIATED
WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. A LAPS SOUNDING OVER
LA CROSSE AT 08Z DEPICTED A VERY DRY SOUNDING WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUE OF 0.08 INCHES. THIS DRY AIR KEPT SKIES MAINLY CLEAR IN
THE EVENING...BUT NOW MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE STREAMING TO AREAS WEST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. OAX 00Z RAOB AND 04Z TAMDAR SOUNDING
SHOWED A SATURATED LAYER BETWEEN 725-825MB...REFLECTING THE MID
LEVEL CLOUDS. RADAR LOOP AND SURFACE OBS SHOW THE EASTERN EDGE OF
PRECIPITATION...ASSOCIATED WITH MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND DPVA AHEAD OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS TROUGH...NOW INTO WESTERN IOWA. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES DEFINITELY HIGHER OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...THANKS TO A
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. 00Z RAOBS SHOWED
VALUES BETWEEN 0.4 AND 0.5 INCHES AT DDC...OUN AND AMA.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS
IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE TRACKING EASTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT...MOVING
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND SORT OF SHEARING OUT AS IT TRIES TO GET
THROUGH THE RIDGING. AS A RESULT...FORCING FOR THIS TROUGH IS
STRONGEST TODAY AND THEN WEAKENS TONIGHT. 500MB HEIGHT FALLS IN 12
HOURS PROGGED BETWEEN 50-70 METERS OVER THE FORECAST AREA...GREATEST
BETWEEN 18-06Z. THEREFORE...JUST FROM FORCING THIS LOOKS TO BE THE
BEST POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION. MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT PLOTS STILL LOOK TERRIBLE IN TERMS OF THIS KIND OF FORCING...
WITH MOST OF IT FOCUSED SOUTH OF I-80. STILL...THE HEIGHT FALLS
ACTING ON THE MOISTURE BEING BROUGHT UP OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SPREAD LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE AREA. TIMING VARIES
ON MODEL...LIKELY DUE TO UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAST THE DRY AIR CAN
ERODE. THE 13.00Z GFS AND 12.21Z SREF MEANS ARE FASTEST SPREADING IT
NORTHEAST...WHILE THE 13.00Z NAM/ECMWF ARE A LITTLE SLOWER. IN FACT
IN THIS LATTER GROUP...THEY KEEP PRECIPITATION ENTIRELY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-94 BEFORE 00Z. FOR NOW STAYED WITH A COMPROMISE...IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST HRRR RUNS WHICH HAVE BEEN DOING WELL THUS
FAR. THIS RESULTS IN THE FORECAST ENDING UP PRETTY SIMILAR TO WHAT
HAS BEEN FORECAST THE PAST FEW DAYS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES. SNOW
STILL LOOKS TO DIMINISH AFTER 06Z AS THE TROUGH WEAKENS AND MOVES
EAST OF THE AREA. VERY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON QPF TODAY AND LOOKS
REASONABLE GIVEN HEIGHT FALLS THE ONLY FORCING. TOTAL SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS STILL LOOKING IN THAT 0.5-2 INCH RANGE WITH SNOW TO WATER
RATIOS BETWEEN 10-15 TO 1. HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS SOUTH OF I-90. ON A
PRECIPITATION TYPE SIDE NOTE...THERE ARE SOME HINTS THIS EVENING OF
A POSSIBLE LOSS OF ICE IN THE GRANT COUNTY AREA. HARD TO SAY WITH
THE MOISTURE INTERSECTING AT -10/-11C...WHICH SHOULD BE ABLE TO KEEP
IT AS SNOW...SO NO FREEZING DRIZZLE MENTIONED AT THIS TIME.
REGARDING CLOUD COVER...SHOULD SEE CLOUDS SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA THIS MORNING...THEN STAY IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT. THESE
CLOUDS WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURE FALL TONIGHT GIVEN LACK OF COLD
ADVECTION...PROBABLY ONLY FALLING ABOUT 5 DEGREES FROM TODAYS
HIGHS. AS FOR TODAYS HIGHS...INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT
WARMER AIR INTO THE AREA. A BLEND OF GUIDANCE SEEMS REASONABLE.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...IN THE WAKE OF TODAY AND TONIGHTS
TROUGH...MODELS SHOW ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE FORECAST
AREA TUESDAY EVENING. THIS SHORTWAVE CAN BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR OVER
NORTH DAKOTA. VERY LITTLE GOING ON WITH IT AND MODELS SUGGEST THE
SAME WHEN IT COMES ACROSS. PLUS...THE SHORTWAVE DOES NOT HAVE MUCH
FORCING OR MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. THEREFORE...THE DRY FORECAST
DURING THIS PERIOD STILL SEEMS REASONABLE. CLOUDS SHOULD TAKE AWHILE
CLEARING...THOUGH...DUE TO A LACK OF ANY STRONG SUBSIDENCE. THERE IS
A WESTERLY WIND PUSH OF SOME DRIER AIR FROM THE PLAINS ON
TUESDAY...BUT THERE ARE HINTS THAT COME TUESDAY EVENING A SURGE OF
800-900MB MOISTURE LIKELY WITH THE SHORTWAVE MOVES IN. THEREFORE
HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER. THIS PUTS A CONCERN ON TEMPERATURES. A
SOUTHWEST WIND ON TUESDAY BRINGING IN SOME WARMER AIR SHOULD HELP
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S. OF COURSE...IF SUN DOES
DEVELOP...READINGS COULD TOUCH 40. WITH THE IDEA OF MORE CLOUDS
PRESENT TUESDAY NIGHT...DID RAISE LOWS A COUPLE DEGREES.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THIS TIME PERIOD HAS BECOME A LITTLE
MORE INTERESTING THIS 13.00Z MODEL CYCLE. A SECOND SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...WHICH IS SEEN RIGHT NOW DIGGING INTO CALIFORNIA...IS
PROGGED TO LIFT NORTHEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY INTO
LOWER MICHIGAN OR OHIO BY THURSDAY. WITH THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MODELS SHOW A DECENT LOW PRESSURE AREA LIFTING NORTHEAST WITH IT. ON
THE NORTH SIDE IS THE TYPICAL DEFORMATION ZONE OF PRECIPITATION. HOW
FAR NORTH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS AND DEEPENS DEPENDS ON TIMING
AND DISTANCE FROM A NORTHERN STREAM TYPE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING
INTO THE DAKOTAS. IF THESE TWO CAN MEET UP...WHICH HAS BEEN SHOWN
THE PAST FEW DAYS FROM THE CANADIAN AND SOME ECMWF RUNS...THEN THE
LOW PRESSURE AREA LIFTS FARTHER NORTH. WE COULD BE DEALING WITH AN
ADVISORY TYPE SNOWFALL...AND POSSIBLY RAIN MIXING IN FOR SOME
SOUTHERN LOCATIONS. ON THE OTHER HAND...IF THEY DO NOT MEET UP WHICH
HAS BEEN SHOWN BY SOME PAST GFS/ECMWF RUNS...THE SYSTEM STAYS SOUTH
AND THE FORECAST AREA IS DRY. CERTAINLY TREND IN THE 13.00Z MODEL
CYCLE HAS BEEN FARTHER NORTH AND FASTER...SO HAVE ADJUSTED THE
FORECAST THIS WAY. DID NOT GO COMPLETELY WITH THE 13.00Z
GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN...THOUGH...BECAUSE THE GFS ENSEMBLES STILL SHOW
QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD. PLUS...MODEL CONSISTENCY HAS NOT BEEN THE
BEST. CHANGES THIS FORECAST INCLUDE BRINGING LOW PRECIPITATION
CHANCES INTO NORTHEAST IOWA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...RAISING CHANCES
10-20 PERCENT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN ENDING MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AN ADDITIONAL CHANGE IS
RAISING LOWS 3-5 DEGREES WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT THESE ARE TRICKY. IF
MORE SUN IS OBSERVED WEDNESDAY...THE LOWS MAY NEED TO BE RAISED
FURTHER. THE SAME WOULD OCCUR WITH A FARTHER NORTH TRACK. NEEDLESS
TO SAY...A LOT TO BE IRONED OUT.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
257 AM CST MON FEB 13 2012
13.00Z ECMWF/CANADIAN/GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLES REMAIN IN DISAGREEMENT
ON A LOT OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH REGARDS TO INDIVIDUAL
SHORTWAVE DETAILS. AGAIN...THIS IS PROBABLY RELATED TO FAST...ZONAL
PACIFIC FLOW RUNNING INTO A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA.
STILL...DESPITE THE DIFFERENCES...THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE CUT-OFF FROM BRINGING MOISTURE BACK NORTHWARD
UNTIL SOMETIME EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MOISTURE CUT-OFF IS DUE TO THE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY SYSTEM...WHICH ALLOWS A DRIER HIGH PRESSURE
AREA TO MOVE DOWN TO THE GULF COAST. THEREFORE...THE ENTIRE LONG
TERM FORECAST REMAINS DRY. 850MB TEMPS ARE HINTED TO BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...DUE TO SOME SEMI-DECENT AGREEMENT ON NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGHING AFFECTING THE FORECAST AREA DURING THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...READINGS ARE STILL LIKELY TO END UP AT OR ABOVE NORMAL FOR
HIGHS AND LOWS WITH A LOT OF THE COLD AIR STAYING WELL NORTH INTO
CANADA. NO REAL STRONG WARM SURGES EITHER DUE TO THE SPLIT FLOW
PATTERN.
&&
.AVIATION...THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY
1143 AM CST MON FEB 13 2012
LOOK FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF -SN THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS
A VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EAST ACROSS THE
REGION. IFR VIS/CIGS WILL BE SEEN AT BOTH KRST/KLSE THIS AFTERNOON
IN -SN. LOOK FOR THE LIGHT SNOW TO TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH AROUND 2 INCHES OF SNOWFALL WHEN ALL
IS SAID AND DONE AT THE TAF SITES. LINGERING MOISTURE TRAPPED IN
THE LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER BEHIND THE DEPARTING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE IFR CIGS AND VIS AT KRST...AND IFR CIGS AT
KLSE THROUGH NOON AND POSSIBLY INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS TUESDAY.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
257 AM CST MON FEB 13 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...DAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
548 AM CST MON FEB 13 2012
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY
257 AM CST MON FEB 13 2012
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON SNOW FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...THEN A
SYSTEM TO WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
CURRENTLY AS OF 08Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED RIDGING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA...SHORTWAVE TROUGHING
DROPPING INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...A BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND RIDGING UP AND DOWN THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS IN SUBSIDENCE
UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE...AS WELL AS IN AN AXIS OF DRY AIR ASSOCIATED
WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. A LAPS SOUNDING OVER
LA CROSSE AT 08Z DEPICTED A VERY DRY SOUNDING WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUE OF 0.08 INCHES. THIS DRY AIR KEPT SKIES MAINLY CLEAR IN
THE EVENING...BUT NOW MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE STREAMING TO AREAS WEST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. OAX 00Z RAOB AND 04Z TAMDAR SOUNDING
SHOWED A SATURATED LAYER BETWEEN 725-825MB...REFLECTING THE MID
LEVEL CLOUDS. RADAR LOOP AND SURFACE OBS SHOW THE EASTERN EDGE OF
PRECIPITATION...ASSOCIATED WITH MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND DPVA AHEAD OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS TROUGH...NOW INTO WESTERN IOWA. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES DEFINITELY HIGHER OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...THANKS TO A
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. 00Z RAOBS SHOWED
VALUES BETWEEN 0.4 AND 0.5 INCHES AT DDC...OUN AND AMA.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS
IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE TRACKING EASTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT...MOVING
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND SORT OF SHEARING OUT AS IT TRIES TO GET
THROUGH THE RIDGING. AS A RESULT...FORCING FOR THIS TROUGH IS
STRONGEST TODAY AND THEN WEAKENS TONIGHT. 500MB HEIGHT FALLS IN 12
HOURS PROGGED BETWEEN 50-70 METERS OVER THE FORECAST AREA...GREATEST
BETWEEN 18-06Z. THEREFORE...JUST FROM FORCING THIS LOOKS TO BE THE
BEST POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION. MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT PLOTS STILL LOOK TERRIBLE IN TERMS OF THIS KIND OF FORCING...
WITH MOST OF IT FOCUSED SOUTH OF I-80. STILL...THE HEIGHT FALLS
ACTING ON THE MOISTURE BEING BROUGHT UP OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SPREAD LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE AREA. TIMING VARIES
ON MODEL...LIKELY DUE TO UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAST THE DRY AIR CAN
ERODE. THE 13.00Z GFS AND 12.21Z SREF MEANS ARE FASTEST SPREADING IT
NORTHEAST...WHILE THE 13.00Z NAM/ECMWF ARE A LITTLE SLOWER. IN FACT
IN THIS LATTER GROUP...THEY KEEP PRECIPITATION ENTIRELY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-94 BEFORE 00Z. FOR NOW STAYED WITH A COMPROMISE...IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST HRRR RUNS WHICH HAVE BEEN DOING WELL THUS
FAR. THIS RESULTS IN THE FORECAST ENDING UP PRETTY SIMILAR TO WHAT
HAS BEEN FORECAST THE PAST FEW DAYS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES. SNOW
STILL LOOKS TO DIMINISH AFTER 06Z AS THE TROUGH WEAKENS AND MOVES
EAST OF THE AREA. VERY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON QPF TODAY AND LOOKS
REASONABLE GIVEN HEIGHT FALLS THE ONLY FORCING. TOTAL SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS STILL LOOKING IN THAT 0.5-2 INCH RANGE WITH SNOW TO WATER
RATIOS BETWEEN 10-15 TO 1. HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS SOUTH OF I-90. ON A
PRECIPITATION TYPE SIDE NOTE...THERE ARE SOME HINTS THIS EVENING OF
A POSSIBLE LOSS OF ICE IN THE GRANT COUNTY AREA. HARD TO SAY WITH
THE MOISTURE INTERSECTING AT -10/-11C...WHICH SHOULD BE ABLE TO KEEP
IT AS SNOW...SO NO FREEZING DRIZZLE MENTIONED AT THIS TIME.
REGARDING CLOUD COVER...SHOULD SEE CLOUDS SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA THIS MORNING...THEN STAY IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT. THESE
CLOUDS WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURE FALL TONIGHT GIVEN LACK OF COLD
ADVECTION...PROBABLY ONLY FALLING ABOUT 5 DEGREES FROM TODAYS
HIGHS. AS FOR TODAYS HIGHS...INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT
WARMER AIR INTO THE AREA. A BLEND OF GUIDANCE SEEMS REASONABLE.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...IN THE WAKE OF TODAY AND TONIGHTS
TROUGH...MODELS SHOW ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE FORECAST
AREA TUESDAY EVENING. THIS SHORTWAVE CAN BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR OVER
NORTH DAKOTA. VERY LITTLE GOING ON WITH IT AND MODELS SUGGEST THE
SAME WHEN IT COMES ACROSS. PLUS...THE SHORTWAVE DOES NOT HAVE MUCH
FORCING OR MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. THEREFORE...THE DRY FORECAST
DURING THIS PERIOD STILL SEEMS REASONABLE. CLOUDS SHOULD TAKE AWHILE
CLEARING...THOUGH...DUE TO A LACK OF ANY STRONG SUBSIDENCE. THERE IS
A WESTERLY WIND PUSH OF SOME DRIER AIR FROM THE PLAINS ON
TUESDAY...BUT THERE ARE HINTS THAT COME TUESDAY EVENING A SURGE OF
800-900MB MOISTURE LIKELY WITH THE SHORTWAVE MOVES IN. THEREFORE
HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER. THIS PUTS A CONCERN ON TEMPERATURES. A
SOUTHWEST WIND ON TUESDAY BRINGING IN SOME WARMER AIR SHOULD HELP
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S. OF COURSE...IF SUN DOES
DEVELOP...READINGS COULD TOUCH 40. WITH THE IDEA OF MORE CLOUDS
PRESENT TUESDAY NIGHT...DID RAISE LOWS A COUPLE DEGREES.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THIS TIME PERIOD HAS BECOME A LITTLE
MORE INTERESTING THIS 13.00Z MODEL CYCLE. A SECOND SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...WHICH IS SEEN RIGHT NOW DIGGING INTO CALIFORNIA...IS
PROGGED TO LIFT NORTHEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY INTO
LOWER MICHIGAN OR OHIO BY THURSDAY. WITH THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MODELS SHOW A DECENT LOW PRESSURE AREA LIFTING NORTHEAST WITH IT. ON
THE NORTH SIDE IS THE TYPICAL DEFORMATION ZONE OF PRECIPITATION. HOW
FAR NORTH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS AND DEEPENS DEPENDS ON TIMING
AND DISTANCE FROM A NORTHERN STREAM TYPE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING
INTO THE DAKOTAS. IF THESE TWO CAN MEET UP...WHICH HAS BEEN SHOWN
THE PAST FEW DAYS FROM THE CANADIAN AND SOME ECMWF RUNS...THEN THE
LOW PRESSURE AREA LIFTS FARTHER NORTH. WE COULD BE DEALING WITH AN
ADVISORY TYPE SNOWFALL...AND POSSIBLY RAIN MIXING IN FOR SOME
SOUTHERN LOCATIONS. ON THE OTHER HAND...IF THEY DO NOT MEET UP WHICH
HAS BEEN SHOWN BY SOME PAST GFS/ECMWF RUNS...THE SYSTEM STAYS SOUTH
AND THE FORECAST AREA IS DRY. CERTAINLY TREND IN THE 13.00Z MODEL
CYCLE HAS BEEN FARTHER NORTH AND FASTER...SO HAVE ADJUSTED THE
FORECAST THIS WAY. DID NOT GO COMPLETELY WITH THE 13.00Z
GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN...THOUGH...BECAUSE THE GFS ENSEMBLES STILL SHOW
QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD. PLUS...MODEL CONSISTENCY HAS NOT BEEN THE
BEST. CHANGES THIS FORECAST INCLUDE BRINGING LOW PRECIPITATION
CHANCES INTO NORTHEAST IOWA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...RAISING CHANCES
10-20 PERCENT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN ENDING MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AN ADDITIONAL CHANGE IS
RAISING LOWS 3-5 DEGREES WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT THESE ARE TRICKY. IF
MORE SUN IS OBSERVED WEDNESDAY...THE LOWS MAY NEED TO BE RAISED
FURTHER. THE SAME WOULD OCCUR WITH A FARTHER NORTH TRACK. NEEDLESS
TO SAY...A LOT TO BE IRONED OUT.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
257 AM CST MON FEB 13 2012
13.00Z ECMWF/CANADIAN/GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLES REMAIN IN DISAGREEMENT
ON A LOT OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH REGARDS TO INDIVIDUAL
SHORTWAVE DETAILS. AGAIN...THIS IS PROBABLY RELATED TO FAST...ZONAL
PACIFIC FLOW RUNNING INTO A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA.
STILL...DESPITE THE DIFFERENCES...THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE CUT-OFF FROM BRINGING MOISTURE BACK NORTHWARD
UNTIL SOMETIME EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MOISTURE CUT-OFF IS DUE TO THE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY SYSTEM...WHICH ALLOWS A DRIER HIGH PRESSURE
AREA TO MOVE DOWN TO THE GULF COAST. THEREFORE...THE ENTIRE LONG
TERM FORECAST REMAINS DRY. 850MB TEMPS ARE HINTED TO BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...DUE TO SOME SEMI-DECENT AGREEMENT ON NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGHING AFFECTING THE FORECAST AREA DURING THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...READINGS ARE STILL LIKELY TO END UP AT OR ABOVE NORMAL FOR
HIGHS AND LOWS WITH A LOT OF THE COLD AIR STAYING WELL NORTH INTO
CANADA. NO REAL STRONG WARM SURGES EITHER DUE TO THE SPLIT FLOW
PATTERN.
&&
.AVIATION...TODAY AND TONIGHT
548 AM CST MON FEB 13 2012
CLOUDS HAVE RAPIDLY INCREASED ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. THESE
CLOUDS ARE IN AVANCE OF A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. CEILINGS WILL BE MAINLY VFR THROUGH MID MORNING...
AND THEN BECOME MVFR LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS
SHOULD COINCIDE CLOSELY TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW. THIS SHOULD
OCCUR AT KRST AROUND 13.17Z AND AT KLSE AROUND 13.19Z. VISIBILITY
REDUCTION DUE TO THE SNOW SHOULD FALL INTO THE 1 TO 2 STATUE MILE
RANGE WITHIN AN HOUR OF SNOW ONSET. ONCE THE SNOW BEGINS IT SHOULD
CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE EVENING...AND THE GRADUALLY END EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. AS THIS OCCURS...VISIBILITIES SHOULD QUICKLY
CLIMB TO P6SM. SNOW TOTALS AT BOTH TAF SITES SHOULD BE AROUND AN
INCH.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
257 AM CST MON FEB 13 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...BOYNE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
257 AM CST MON FEB 13 2012
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY
257 AM CST MON FEB 13 2012
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON SNOW FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...THEN A
SYSTEM TO WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
CURRENTLY AS OF 08Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED RIDGING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA...SHORTWAVE TROUGHING
DROPPING INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...A BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND RIDGING UP AND DOWN THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS IN SUBSIDENCE
UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE...AS WELL AS IN AN AXIS OF DRY AIR ASSOCIATED
WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. A LAPS SOUNDING OVER
LA CROSSE AT 08Z DEPICTED A VERY DRY SOUNDING WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUE OF 0.08 INCHES. THIS DRY AIR KEPT SKIES MAINLY CLEAR IN
THE EVENING...BUT NOW MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE STREAMING TO AREAS WEST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. OAX 00Z RAOB AND 04Z TAMDAR SOUNDING
SHOWED A SATURATED LAYER BETWEEN 725-825MB...REFLECTING THE MID
LEVEL CLOUDS. RADAR LOOP AND SURFACE OBS SHOW THE EASTERN EDGE OF
PRECIPITATION...ASSOCIATED WITH MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND DPVA AHEAD OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS TROUGH...NOW INTO WESTERN IOWA. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES DEFINITELY HIGHER OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...THANKS TO A
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. 00Z RAOBS SHOWED
VALUES BETWEEN 0.4 AND 0.5 INCHES AT DDC...OUN AND AMA.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS
IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE TRACKING EASTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT...MOVING
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND SORT OF SHEARING OUT AS IT TRIES TO GET
THROUGH THE RIDGING. AS A RESULT...FORCING FOR THIS TROUGH IS
STRONGEST TODAY AND THEN WEAKENS TONIGHT. 500MB HEIGHT FALLS IN 12
HOURS PROGGED BETWEEN 50-70 METERS OVER THE FORECAST AREA...GREATEST
BETWEEN 18-06Z. THEREFORE...JUST FROM FORCING THIS LOOKS TO BE THE
BEST POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION. MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT PLOTS STILL LOOK TERRIBLE IN TERMS OF THIS KIND OF FORCING...
WITH MOST OF IT FOCUSED SOUTH OF I-80. STILL...THE HEIGHT FALLS
ACTING ON THE MOISTURE BEING BROUGHT UP OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SPREAD LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE AREA. TIMING VARIES
ON MODEL...LIKELY DUE TO UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAST THE DRY AIR CAN
ERODE. THE 13.00Z GFS AND 12.21Z SREF MEANS ARE FASTEST SPREADING IT
NORTHEAST...WHILE THE 13.00Z NAM/ECMWF ARE A LITTLE SLOWER. IN FACT
IN THIS LATTER GROUP...THEY KEEP PRECIPITATION ENTIRELY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-94 BEFORE 00Z. FOR NOW STAYED WITH A COMPROMISE...IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST HRRR RUNS WHICH HAVE BEEN DOING WELL THUS
FAR. THIS RESULTS IN THE FORECAST ENDING UP PRETTY SIMILAR TO WHAT
HAS BEEN FORECAST THE PAST FEW DAYS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES. SNOW
STILL LOOKS TO DIMINISH AFTER 06Z AS THE TROUGH WEAKENS AND MOVES
EAST OF THE AREA. VERY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON QPF TODAY AND LOOKS
REASONABLE GIVEN HEIGHT FALLS THE ONLY FORCING. TOTAL SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS STILL LOOKING IN THAT 0.5-2 INCH RANGE WITH SNOW TO WATER
RATIOS BETWEEN 10-15 TO 1. HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS SOUTH OF I-90. ON A
PRECIPITATION TYPE SIDE NOTE...THERE ARE SOME HINTS THIS EVENING OF
A POSSIBLE LOSS OF ICE IN THE GRANT COUNTY AREA. HARD TO SAY WITH
THE MOISTURE INTERSECTING AT -10/-11C...WHICH SHOULD BE ABLE TO KEEP
IT AS SNOW...SO NO FREEZING DRIZZLE MENTIONED AT THIS TIME.
REGARDING CLOUD COVER...SHOULD SEE CLOUDS SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA THIS MORNING...THEN STAY IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT. THESE
CLOUDS WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURE FALL TONIGHT GIVEN LACK OF COLD
ADVECTION...PROBABLY ONLY FALLING ABOUT 5 DEGREES FROM TODAYS
HIGHS. AS FOR TODAYS HIGHS...INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT
WARMER AIR INTO THE AREA. A BLEND OF GUIDANCE SEEMS REASONABLE.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...IN THE WAKE OF TODAY AND TONIGHTS
TROUGH...MODELS SHOW ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE FORECAST
AREA TUESDAY EVENING. THIS SHORTWAVE CAN BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR OVER
NORTH DAKOTA. VERY LITTLE GOING ON WITH IT AND MODELS SUGGEST THE
SAME WHEN IT COMES ACROSS. PLUS...THE SHORTWAVE DOES NOT HAVE MUCH
FORCING OR MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. THEREFORE...THE DRY FORECAST
DURING THIS PERIOD STILL SEEMS REASONABLE. CLOUDS SHOULD TAKE AWHILE
CLEARING...THOUGH...DUE TO A LACK OF ANY STRONG SUBSIDENCE. THERE IS
A WESTERLY WIND PUSH OF SOME DRIER AIR FROM THE PLAINS ON
TUESDAY...BUT THERE ARE HINTS THAT COME TUESDAY EVENING A SURGE OF
800-900MB MOISTURE LIKELY WITH THE SHORTWAVE MOVES IN. THEREFORE
HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER. THIS PUTS A CONCERN ON TEMPERATURES. A
SOUTHWEST WIND ON TUESDAY BRINGING IN SOME WARMER AIR SHOULD HELP
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S. OF COURSE...IF SUN DOES
DEVELOP...READINGS COULD TOUCH 40. WITH THE IDEA OF MORE CLOUDS
PRESENT TUESDAY NIGHT...DID RAISE LOWS A COUPLE DEGREES.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THIS TIME PERIOD HAS BECOME A LITTLE
MORE INTERESTING THIS 13.00Z MODEL CYCLE. A SECOND SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...WHICH IS SEEN RIGHT NOW DIGGING INTO CALIFORNIA...IS
PROGGED TO LIFT NORTHEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY INTO
LOWER MICHIGAN OR OHIO BY THURSDAY. WITH THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MODELS SHOW A DECENT LOW PRESSURE AREA LIFTING NORTHEAST WITH IT. ON
THE NORTH SIDE IS THE TYPICAL DEFORMATION ZONE OF PRECIPITATION. HOW
FAR NORTH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS AND DEEPENS DEPENDS ON TIMING
AND DISTANCE FROM A NORTHERN STREAM TYPE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING
INTO THE DAKOTAS. IF THESE TWO CAN MEET UP...WHICH HAS BEEN SHOWN
THE PAST FEW DAYS FROM THE CANADIAN AND SOME ECMWF RUNS...THEN THE
LOW PRESSURE AREA LIFTS FARTHER NORTH. WE COULD BE DEALING WITH AN
ADVISORY TYPE SNOWFALL...AND POSSIBLY RAIN MIXING IN FOR SOME
SOUTHERN LOCATIONS. ON THE OTHER HAND...IF THEY DO NOT MEET UP WHICH
HAS BEEN SHOWN BY SOME PAST GFS/ECMWF RUNS...THE SYSTEM STAYS SOUTH
AND THE FORECAST AREA IS DRY. CERTAINLY TREND IN THE 13.00Z MODEL
CYCLE HAS BEEN FARTHER NORTH AND FASTER...SO HAVE ADJUSTED THE
FORECAST THIS WAY. DID NOT GO COMPLETELY WITH THE 13.00Z
GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN...THOUGH...BECAUSE THE GFS ENSEMBLES STILL SHOW
QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD. PLUS...MODEL CONSISTENCY HAS NOT BEEN THE
BEST. CHANGES THIS FORECAST INCLUDE BRINGING LOW PRECIPITATION
CHANCES INTO NORTHEAST IOWA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...RAISING CHANCES
10-20 PERCENT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN ENDING MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AN ADDITIONAL CHANGE IS
RAISING LOWS 3-5 DEGREES WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT THESE ARE TRICKY. IF
MORE SUN IS OBSERVED WEDNESDAY...THE LOWS MAY NEED TO BE RAISED
FURTHER. THE SAME WOULD OCCUR WITH A FARTHER NORTH TRACK. NEEDLESS
TO SAY...A LOT TO BE IRONED OUT.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
257 AM CST MON FEB 13 2012
13.00Z ECMWF/CANADIAN/GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLES REMAIN IN DISAGREEMENT
ON A LOT OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH REGARDS TO INDIVIDUAL
SHORTWAVE DETAILS. AGAIN...THIS IS PROBABLY RELATED TO FAST...ZONAL
PACIFIC FLOW RUNNING INTO A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA.
STILL...DESPITE THE DIFFERENCES...THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE CUT-OFF FROM BRINGING MOISTURE BACK NORTHWARD
UNTIL SOMETIME EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MOISTURE CUT-OFF IS DUE TO THE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY SYSTEM...WHICH ALLOWS A DRIER HIGH PRESSURE
AREA TO MOVE DOWN TO THE GULF COAST. THEREFORE...THE ENTIRE LONG
TERM FORECAST REMAINS DRY. 850MB TEMPS ARE HINTED TO BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...DUE TO SOME SEMI-DECENT AGREEMENT ON NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGHING AFFECTING THE FORECAST AREA DURING THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...READINGS ARE STILL LIKELY TO END UP AT OR ABOVE NORMAL FOR
HIGHS AND LOWS WITH A LOT OF THE COLD AIR STAYING WELL NORTH INTO
CANADA. NO REAL STRONG WARM SURGES EITHER DUE TO THE SPLIT FLOW
PATTERN.
&&
.AVIATION...THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY
1120 PM CST SUN FEB 12 2012
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT...LOWERING INTO MVFR RANGE AROUND
18Z. -SN WILL ACCOMPANY THE LOW CIGS FOR THE AFTERNOON...AND A
PERIOD OF 2SM LOOKS PROBABLE FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
STILL...OVERALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINOR AT THE TAF
SITES...EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW AN INCH.
THE LOW MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MON NIGHT AS THE RESPONSIBLE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXITS EAST. -SN WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT THERE SHOULD BE IMPROVEMENT IN THE VSBYS.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
257 AM CST MON FEB 13 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION.....RIECK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
1238 AM EST WED FEB 15 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
SEVERAL WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION OVERNIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BRINGING MAINLY CLOUDY
SKIES...ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN
SHOWERS. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL
BRING ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 940 PM EST...LATEST 00Z NAM MODEL GUIDANCE AND 3KM HRRR IS
SHOWING LITTLE PRECIP ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT. CURRENTLY...THE
BEST RADAR RETURNS ARE SEEN ON THE KBGM RADAR ACROSS NORTHEAST PA
AND THE SOUTHWESTERN CATSKILLS. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...THE 00Z
KALY SOUNDING SHOWS VERY DRY AIR AT LOW LEVELS...AND WEAK FORCING
DUE TO A SHORTWAVE ALOFT WILL ONLY ALLOW FOR WIDELY SCT/ISOLD
SHOWERS. WHILE THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN IN
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA RIGHT NOW...TEMPS SHOULD COOL OFF
ENOUGH TO ALLOW P-TYPE TO BE SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...QPF WILL ONLY BE A HUNDREDTH OR TWO AT
MOST...WITH THE BEST CHC OF SEEING THIS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE CATSKILLS AND PERHAPS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AS WELL.
EVEN THOUGH TEMPS IN SOME AREAS HAVE DROPPED OFF THIS
EVENING...THICKER CLOUD COVER SHOULD SLOW THE RATE OF FALLING
TEMPS AND OUR PROJECTED MIN TEMPS STILL LOOK GOOD...WITH MID TO UPPER
20S IN MOST AREAS...TO AROUND 30 FOR THE CAPITAL REGION AND MID
HUDSON VALLEY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WED-WED NT...ONE FINAL SHORTWAVE...AND AREA OF WEAK SFC
CONVERGENCE WILL MOVE ACROSS DURING THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS OF RAIN OR WET
SNOW POSSIBLE. IN ITS WAKE...EXPECT CLOUDS TO LINGER INTO THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS. THEN...EXPECT CLEARING TO DEVELOP FROM SW TO
NE LATER WED EVE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LIGHT WINDS...AND
CLEARING SKIES SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL TO LOWER LEVELS THAN
TONIGHT...WITH MINS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REACH CLOSE TO THE
COOLER MAV MOS...GENERALLY 20-25 IN MOST VALLEYS...AND TEENS
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND.
THU-THU NT...NEXT FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE
SOUTHWEST/WEST DURING THURSDAY...AS ONE WEAK LOW TRACKS INTO AND
ACROSS SE CANADA...WITH AN EVEN WEAKER SFC LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST AND TRACKING ENE. MODELS HAVE DECREASED OVERALL
QPF CONSIDERABLY ACROSS THE REGION...WITH GENERALLY 0.15-0.25
EXPECTED...PERHAPS LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY REGION. P-TYPE MAY INITIALLY BE RAIN IN
VALLEYS...AND A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS EARLY THU
AFTERNOON...TRANSITIONING TO MAINLY WET SNOW BY THU EVE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. GIVEN THE LIGHTER QPF...SNOWFALL ACCUMS SHOULD
ALSO BE LESS...PERHAPS 1-3 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY...AND GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS
ELSEWHERE...WITH MOST ACCUMS IN VALLEYS OCCURRING ON COLDER
SURFACES. ONE THING TO WATCH FOR WILL BE HOW QUICKLY THE PRECIP
DEVELOPS THU AFTERNOON...AS WE HAVE SEEN WITH OTHER EVENTS THIS
SEASON THUS FAR...THIS COULD CHANGE OVER TO SNOW FAIRLY QUICKLY IF
A DECENT BURST OF WARM ADVECTION/LIFT PASSES THROUGH...WHICH COULD
PRODUCE MINOR...SLUSHY ACCUMS EVEN ON ROAD SURFACES THU EVE.
HAVE GENERALLY INDICATED THU MAXES IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
IN VALLEYS AND MID 30S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH FAIRLY
UNIFORM MINS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S FOR THU NT.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY QUITE WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH
TEMPS STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY TRENDING TO MORE
SEASONABLE LEVELS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
ON FRIDAY THE PRIMARY LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH QUEBEC WHILE THE
SECONDARY LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM WELL SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND TO
SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA. STILL EXPECT SOME LINGERING RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA MAINLY FOR AREAS FROM
THE NORTH SIDE OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY TO SOUTHERN VERMONT AND POINTS
NORTH. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW AS A 280 DEG WIND
FLOW OFF LAKE ONTARIO WILL RESULT IN A LAKE ENHANCED BAND REACHING
NORTHERN HERKIMER AND FAR NORTHWEST HAMILTON COUNTY. TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY THE LAKE EFFECT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ACROSS NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY AND EXTREME NORTHWEST HAMILTON
COUNTY ALTHOUGH THE FLOW MAY GET DISRUPTED FOR A TIME AS A SECONDARY
TROUGH DROPS INTO THE REGION SATURDAY MORNING. EXPECT LOWS FRIDAY
NIGHT IN THE UPPER TEENS TO UPPER 20S AND HIGHS ON SATURDAY RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S NORTHWEST TO THE MID 40S SOUTHEAST.
THE PERIOD FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY LOOKS MAINLY DRY AND
SEASONABLE WITH THE GGEM...ECMWF AND GFS ALL TAKING THE SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM SUNDAY MORNING OUT TO SEA OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WHICH
SHOULD BE TOO FAR SOUTH AND EAST EVEN TO IMPACT OUR FAR SOUTHERN
ZONES. EXPECT LOWS DURING THIS PERIOD TO GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE
SINGLE DIGITS NORTHWEST TO UPPER TEENS TO LOW TO MID 20S SOUTH AND
EAST. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S
NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S SOUTHEAST.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH MAINLY THIS MORNING. SOME OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN HAS
DEVELOPED AT KPOU...HOWEVER THE AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS IS STILL QUITE
DRY FROM KALB-KGFL...SO WILL NOT MENTION ANY PRECIP AT THOSE TWO
SITES WITH CIGS LOWERING TO JUST ABOVE VFR THRESHOLD. WILL MENTION
TEMPOS FOR OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN AS ASSOCIATED MVFR CONDITIONS AT
KPOU THROUGH SUNRISE.
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR AT ALL SITES LATER
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO
BUILD IN. CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BUT CIGS
SHOULD REMAIN IN VFR RANGE. CLOUDS WILL LIKELY SCOUR OUT THIS
EVENING AS THE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD WITH DRIER AIR.
WINDS TODAY WILL INITIALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...SHIFTING TO A
MAINLY NORTHWEST DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 4 TO 7 KT.
OUTLOOK...
WED NT-THU AM...VFR. NO SIG WX.
THU PM-FRI...MVFR/IFR. -RA/-SN LIKELY.
FRI NT-SAT...VFR. SLGT CHC -SHSN/-SHRA.
SAT NT-SUN...MAINLY VFR...ALTHOUGH LOW PROB OF IFR WITH SNOW.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SOME
GAGES WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE ICE EFFECTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
OF THE ALBANY HYDRO SERVICE AREA /HSA/.
SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW AND/OR RAIN SHOWERS.
HOWEVER...LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN UNDER ONE
TENTH OF AN INCH DURING THIS TIME.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD BRING RAIN AND/OR SNOW TO THE
REGION LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH GENERALLY LIGHT TO
MODERATE AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KL
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...JPV
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
314 AM CST WED FEB 15 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST WED FEB 15 2012
THE 250 MB CHART ANALYSIS INDICATED TWO UPPER JETS OVER THE SOUTH
CENTRAL AND EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THE STRONGER, LARGER
SCALE JET RAN FROM WESTERN MEXICO THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS TO ABOUT
125 MILES EAST OF THE FLORIDA COAST. MAXIMUM SPEEDS WITHIN THIS
SOUTHERN JET WERE IN THE 100-120KT RANGE. THE SECONDARY JET WAS
ORIENTED WEST TO EAST FROM NORTHERN MISSOURI TO TO THE
VIRGINA/NORTH CAROLINA COAST AND FURTHER EAST. MAX JET SPEED WITH
THIS NORTHERN BRANCH WERE IN THE 100 TO 110 KT RANGE. SOUTHWEST
FLOW CONTINUED AT BOTH 500 AND 700MB LEVELS, WITH A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER NORTHEASTERN ARIZONA. THE 500MB TEMPERATURE WAS -24C
AT DDC, AND THE 700MB TEMP WAS -02C. THE 850MB CHART SHOWED A LOW
PRESSURE AREA OVER EAST CENTRAL COLORADO, WITH A COLD FRONT
TRAILING BACK TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST THROUGH NEW MEXICO. A
WARM FRONT EXTENDED SOUTHEAST FROM THE LOW TO SOUTHEASTERN
OKLAHOMA. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WAS EVIDENT FROM A LOW IN EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA, SWEEPING SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH
NORTHERN NEBRASKA TO ANOTHER LOW IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST MONTANA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST WED FEB 15 2012
TODAY`S FORECAST CHALLENGES CENTER AROUND POPS, WEATHER TYPES, AND
TIMING.
THE SHORT TERM MODELS, NAMELY THE HRRR AND THE NAM MODELS, DELAY
THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION IN OUR WEST AND SOUTH, BRINGING ONLY A
LITTLE RAIN/SNOW MIX TO OUR NORTHEAST COUNTIES AROUND 10Z THIS
MORNING. THEN AS A COLD FRONT RUSHES SOUTHWARD INTO OUR NORTHWEST
CWA TOWARD 18Z. THE NAM MODEL IS SIMILAR TO THE HRRR IN BRINGING
SNOW TO AN AREA NORTHWEST OF A ELKHART TO SCOTT CITY TO WAKEENEY
LINE BY 18Z, THE FARTHER EAST BY 00Z. THE EC AND GFS MODELS ARE A
LITTLE EARLIER AND MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE NAM MODEL, SO HAVE
DELAYED THE START OF PRECIP IN OUR CENTRAL ZONES UNTIL AFTER 18Z.
ALSO, LOWERED SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE SUBLETTE, DODGE CITY TO LARNED
AREAS, THINKING THERE WILL BE ENOUGH RAIN FIRST BEFORE ANY SNOW
STARTS THIS AFTERNOON TO LIMIT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. IN THE SCOTT
CITY, DIGHTON AND LAKIN AREAS, UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE
BY TONIGHT. THE FRONT MENTIONED ABOVE WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS
BOUNDARY FOR ENHANCED LIFT. THERE IS A DEFORMATION ZONE SHOWN
JUST NORTHWEST OF OUR CWA AT 18 TO 00Z BY THE ECMWF AND THE GFS
MODELS. TEMPERATURES WON`T WARM TOO MUCH TODAY, ONLY RISING TO THE
MID 30S IN OUR NORTH AND NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES, TO NEAR 40F
DEGREES FROM LARNED TO DODGE CITY TO JOHNSON CITY. OUR EXTREME
SOUTHEAST COULD RISE TO THE UPPER 40S, BEFORE THE COLD FRONT
REACHES THERE THIS EVENING.
THERE IS AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING EAST ACROSS THE
KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER. AS IT MOVES TO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY
TONIGHT, AN AREA OF WRAP AROUND COLD AIR AND MOISTURE WILL KEEP
CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW GOING IN THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST. DO NOT SEE
MUCH SNOW ACCUMULATION OUT OF THIS SITUATION, AS SUBSTANTIAL MID
AND UPPER LEVEL LIFT WILL BE TO OUR EAST. LOWERED POPS TO BELOW
SLIGHT CHANCES BY 04Z, THINKING WE WILL BE WELL TO THE WEST OF ANY
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL TO THE 17F
TO 19F DEGREE RANGE IN OUR NORTHWEST, WHERE THERE SHOULD BE A
FRESH SNOW COVER OF AROUND 1 INCH. MID 20S WILL RESULT FROM LARNED
TO DODGE CITY TO LIBERAL, WITH UPPER 20S FORECAST IN OUR
SOUTHEASTERN CWA.
I EXPECT A MOSTLY SUNNY THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FROM THE NORTH. SURFACE WINDS MAY START OUT FROM THE NORTH AT 10
TO 15 MPH, BUT SHOULD SHIFT TO THE SOUTH BY NOON AND ALLOW WARM
ADVECTION TO HELP WARM MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TO NEAR 50F DEGREES
ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER, THE MID 40S ACROSS OUR CENTRAL CWA, AND THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S IN OUR NORTHWEST WHERE A LITTLE SNOW MAY REMAIN.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST WED FEB 15 2012
PLEASANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECASTED THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE FROM THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST AND
THE SURFACE WILL GENERALLY BE DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHEN A WEAK COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA INCREASING CLOUDS AND SHIFTING WINDS TO A
NORTHERLY DIRECTION ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE
PUSHED ACROSS THE AREA WITH HELP FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. NO PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME BUT IF
FUTURE MODEL RUNS MOVE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW FURTHER NORTH THERE COULD
INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO ROWS OF
COUNTIES IN KANSAS. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S
ON FRIDAY THEN THE MID TO UPPER 40S ON SATURDAY. LOWS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNING.
MODELS ARE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT BRINGING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SATURDAY, INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND
CENTRAL ROCKIES SUNDAY, AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON MONDAY. THIS
IN TURN WILL DEVELOP SURFACE LEE TROUGHING ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO
AND SHIFT WINDS TO MORE OF A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. WINDY CONDITIONS COULD BE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY
AS THE LEE TROUGHING AND ATMOSPHERIC MIXING INCREASES ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE
SYSTEM APPROACHES WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED ON MONDAY.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL ALSO INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY,
MAINLY ACROSS NORTH AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. PRECIPITATION TYPE IS
STILL UNKNOWN BUT SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN DURING THE DAY AS
HIGHS WILL BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING. EXTENDED MODELS THEN HAVE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED. HIGHS ARE FORECASTED TO BE IN
THE LOWER TO MID 50S SUNDAY, RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID
30S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1050 PM CST TUE FEB 14 2012
LATEST NAM, RUC AND HRRR CONTINUES TO INDICATED A 700-900 METER
DEEP LAYER OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADING ACROSS MOST OF
SOUTHWEST AND PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS OVERNIGHT. AS OF
05Z CIGS AT DDC WERE ALREADY AT 200FEET WITH A BK DECK OF 300FT
CIGS STARTING TO SPREAD INTO GCK. BU FR SOUNDINGS INDICATING THE
BOTH DDC AND GCK HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF VSBYS TO FALL BELOW 1/4MILE
EARLY THIS MORNING. HAYS VSBYS WILL BE SLIGHTLY BETTER BUT LIFR
CIGS STILL ARE ANTICIPATED. DENSE FOG WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARD AT
DDC OVERNIGHT BUT AT GCK AND HYS SOME LIGHT RAINSHOWERS WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE AS 850MB WARM AIR ADVECTION IMPROVES. WIND SPEEDS
OVERNIGHT AT ALL THREE TAF SITES WILL BE AT LESS THAN 10KTS.
ON WEDNESDAY THE RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AS THE ATMOSPHERE
COOLS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. AS THIS UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH PASSES SOUTHWEST KANSAS/TEXAS PANHANDLE LATE IN THE
DAY...SUBSIDENCE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN ITS WAKE AND AN AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE AREA.
THIS WILL RESULT IN CLEARING SKIES AND DECREASING WINDS...MAINLY
AFTER 00Z THURSDAY. UNTIL THEN NORTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP DURING
EARLY IN THE DAY WITH AFTERNOON WIND SPEEDS INCREASING TO AROUND
15 KNOTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 38 25 47 26 / 70 40 0 0
GCK 38 22 47 24 / 70 30 0 0
EHA 43 23 48 28 / 30 10 0 0
LBL 45 24 49 25 / 30 20 0 0
HYS 36 22 45 26 / 70 40 0 0
P28 47 28 49 28 / 40 20 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR KSZ063>066-
077>081-087>090.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BURKE
SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM....HOVORKA
AVIATION...BURGERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
253 AM CST WED FEB 15 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST WED FEB 15 2012
UPDATED TO EXTEND THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO THE NORTH AND A LITTLE
FARTHER WEST. THE 11U-3.9U SATELLITE IMAGERY WAS SHOWING THE FOG
AND LOW CLOUDS ADVANCING BOTH WEST AND NORTH AT 08Z. MESHED THESE
NEW AREA`S NPW WITH THE PREVIOUS NPW, IN EFFECT UNTIL 15Z. DEW
POINTS ADVECTING NORTH AND NORTHWEST ARE COLLIDING WITH SLIGHTLY
DRIER DEW POINTS IN OUR FAR WEST, THUS DID NOT INCLUDE OUR 3
WESTERN-MOST COUNTIES IN THE NPW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CST TUE FEB 14 2012
THE CHALLENGE IN THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE
TEMPERATURES/PRECIPITATION TYPE AND WHERE THE HEAVIEST ACCUMULATION
OF PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR.
TONIGHT...A SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER FAR
SOUTHEAST COLORADO THROUGH THE EVENING AND WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
RESPOND OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WIND DIRECTION WILL ACTUALLY BE
A COLD ADVECTION WIND FROM THE WESTERN OKLAHOMA COLD POOL, WHICH IS
SOMETHING YOU DON`T SEE EVERY DAY. THIS IS VERY HIGH-RELATIVE
HUMIDITY AIR AS THE TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS DOWN THERE IN THE
COLD POOL ARE BASICALLY 0 OR 1 DEGREE FAHRENHEIT...EVEN AT DIURNAL
MAXIMUM. ON THE SOUTHEAST WINDS...THIS AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE DDC FORECAST AREA. ALL
SHORT-RANGE MODELS ARE VERY AGGRESSIVE AT DENSE FOG FORMATION AFTER
03Z AND BASED ON THE OBSERVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON UPSTREAM IN WESTERN
OKLAHOMA...IT IS VERY JUSTIFIED. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND INSERTED DENSE
FOG INTO THE GRIDS SOUTHEAST OF A LIBERAL TO CIMARRON TO LACROSSE
LINE. THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IS A BIT LESS FARTHER
NORTHWEST AND THE GENERATION OF PRECIPITATION AFTER MIDNIGHT MAY
PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG FORMATION NORTH OF THIS LINE.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ON INCREASING WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
UPPER LOW AFTER ABOUT 04Z. THIS IS ABOUT THE TIME POPS WILL RAMP UP
IN THE GRIDS FROM 20 PERCENT TO ABOUT 60 PERCENT OVERNIGHT. ALL THE
MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT A SIGNIFICANT WARM LAYER ALOFT, ALBEIT DRY,
EARLY ON. THE PRECIPITATION TYPE IS EXPECTED TO BE RAIN
SHOWERS...HOWEVER THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE WILL BE DROPPING SLOWLY
DOWN INTO THE MID 30S AND LIKELY STOPPING IN THE 33-36F RANGE ON
INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION AND THE REALIZATION OF LOW STRATUS AND
AREAS/WIDESPREAD FOG. AS A RESULT...THE UPDATED OFFICIAL FORECAST
WILL REFLECT LIQUID PRECIPITATION (NOT FREEZING) FOR AREAS SOUTHEAST
OF A SYRACUSE TO SCOTT CITY TO WAKEENEY LINE (THE ENTIRE DDC
FORECAST AREA). THAT BEING SAID...SOME SCATTERED SLEET SHOWERS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT...AND IN THE FAR WEST AND NORTHWEST WILL INCLUDE
MENTION OF SLEET.
TOMORROW...AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES...700MB FRONTOGENESIS WILL BE
INCREASING...AND THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
STRATIFIED IN NATURE ALONG THE 700MB BAROCLINIC ZONE. THE BEST AREA
FOR FRONTOGENETIC PRECIPITATION WILL BE FROM THE
ELKHART-JOHNSON-SYRACUSE AREAS NORTHEAST TOWARD ULYSSES TO GARDEN
CITY...AND EVENTUALLY BY AFTERNOON THE DIGHTON-NESS CITY-WAKEENEY
AREAS. FARTHER SOUTH OF THIS AXIS...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AND POPS WILL BE IN THE 20-40 PERCENT
RANGE. WITHIN THE ZONE OF 700MB FRONTOGENESIS...THE LOWER
TROPOSPHERIC THERMAL PROFILES WILL BE COOLING TO SUPPORT SNOW AT THE
SURFACE. AT AROUND DAYBREAK...THE SNOW LINE SHOULD EXTEND FROM
ROUGHLY ELKHART TO LAKIN TO SCOTT CITY. BY LATE MORNING...THE RAIN
IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW ALONG ROUGHLY A HUGOTON TO
CIMARRON TO NESS CITY AXIS...AND BY MID-AFTERNOON ALONG ROUGHLY A
MINNEOLA TO LARNED LINE.
SNOW INTENSITY WITHIN THE STRONGEST ZONE OF FRONTOGENESIS WILL
LIKELY BE ABOUT A HALF INCH PER HOUR RATE, BUT THIS RATE SHOULD NOT
LAST VERY LONG AT ANY ONE LOCATION. GIVEN WARM SURFACES AND DIURNAL
TIMING OF THE EVENT...ROAD SURFACES WILL PROBABLY BE OKAY IN MOST
AREAS. SLUSHY TO SPOTTY SNOWPACKED ROADS CAN BE EXPECTED IF THE
SNOW RATES ARE MORE THAN EXPECTED AND/OR LAST LONGER THAN EXPECTED
IN ANY ONE LOCATION FROM MID MORNING THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. AN
AVERAGE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION TOTAL OF ONE HALF TO ONE INCH
CONTINUES TO BE IN THE FORECAST BUT A FEW 2 INCH AMOUNTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY FARTHER NORTHWEST FROM ROUGHLY LAKIN TO
DIGHTON TO WAKEENEY...AS THE MID LEVEL CYCLONE TRACKS FROM LIBERAL
TO GREAT BEND DURING THE DAY.
TOMORROW NIGHT...WHATEVER PRECIPITATION REMAINS EARLY IN THE EVENING
WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES AND EXITING QUICKLY...SO
MUCH OF THIS TIME FRAME WILL BE TRANQUIL AS A SURFACE HIGH SETTLES
IN AND WINDS DECREASE QUITE A BIT. LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS A
CHALLENGE AND A LOT WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH SNOW FELL AND
ACCUMULATED. IF AN INCH OR TWO OF FRESH SNOWFALL STILL REMAINS ON
THE GROUND AFTER SUNSET...THEN TEMPERATURES WILL SURELY FALL INTO
THE UPPER TEENS...HOWEVER IF THERE IS A LOT OF MELT GOING ON AS THE
SNOW FALLS WITH NOT MUCH LEFT ON THE GROUND BY SUNSET...THEN LOWS
WILL BE WARMER (LOWER TO MID 20S).
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CST TUE FEB 14 2012
THURSDAY:
WEDNESDAYS UPPER LEVEL WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING WELL TO THE
EAST OF THE FA ON THURSDAY WITH A FLAT MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW
PATTERN LEFT IN ITS WAKE. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE
ACROSS THE PLAINS. WITH SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
SYSTEM, WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY NEAR CLIMO.
FRIDAY/SATURDAY:
KANSAS WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING
ACROSS MEXICO AND A BROAD UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE UPPER MIDWEST
SYSTEM WILL CAUSE THE WEAK TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS
THE STATE, RESULTING IN A WEAK WIND SHIFT. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE A BIT MORE BY THE END OF THE BUSINESS WEEK WITH LOW 50S DEG
F EXPECTED.
SUNDAY:
HAVE KEPT THE ALLBLEND POPS SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
TURNS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AND A WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN ENSUES.
THESE POPS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE
BREEZY AS 850 HPA WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 35 KT ON BOTH GFS/ECMWF
PLUS DECENT LEE SURFACE TROUGHING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UL
DISTURBANCE. HAVE INCREASED WINDS ABOVE THE ALLBLEND AS A RESULT.
THE ECMWF IS LESS AMPLIFIED WITH THE WAVE THAN COMPARED TO THE GFS
AND WITH SLIGHTLY WEAKER DYNAMICS GOING INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE
HIGHEST POPS ARE ALONG INTERSTATE 70 AND LESS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS.
MONDAY ONWARDS:
THE FORECAST BECOMES A BIT MUDDLED MONDAY AND PARTICULARLY INTO
TUESDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A LARGE AND BAGGY TROUGH ACROSS
THE PLAINS. THE ECMWF IS MORE BROAD WITH THE 500 HPA PATTERN THAN
COMPARED TO THE GFS. THIS WOULD RESULT IN A DRY WESTERLY FLOW
PATTERN ACROSS KANSAS...SOMETHING THAT IS NOT TOO CONDUCIVE TO
BRINGING PRECIPITATION HERE. AS A RESULT, HAVE LIMITED POPS BELOW 15
PERCENT AND GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1050 PM CST TUE FEB 14 2012
LATEST NAM, RUC AND HRRR CONTINUES TO INDICATED A 700-900 METER
DEEP LAYER OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADING ACROSS MOST OF
SOUTHWEST AND PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS OVERNIGHT. AS OF
05Z CIGS AT DDC WERE ALREADY AT 200FEET WITH A BKN DECK OF 300FT
CIGS STARTING TO SPREAD INTO GCK. BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATING THE
BOTH DDC AND GCK HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF VSBYS TO FALL BELOW 1/4MILE
EARLY THIS MORING. HAYS VSBYS WILL BE SLIGHTLY BETTER BUT LIFR
CIGS STILL ARE ANTICIAPTED. DENSE FOG WLL BE THE MAIN HAZARD AT
DDC OVERNIGHT BUT AT GCK AND HYS SOME LIGHT RAINSHOWERS WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE AS 850MB WARM AIR ADVECTION IMPROVES. WIND SPEEDS
OVERNIGHT AT ALL THREE TAF SITES WILL BE AT LESS THAN 10KTS.
ON WEDNESDAY THE RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AS THE ATMOSHERE
COOLS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. AS THIS UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH PASSES SOUTHWEST KANSAS/TEXAS PANHANDLE LATE IN THE
DAY...SUBSIDENCE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN ITS WAKE AND AN AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE AREA.
THIS WILL RESULT IN CLEARING SKIES AND DECREASING WINDS...MAINLY
AFTER 00Z THURSDAY. UNTIL THEN NORTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP DURING
EARLY IN THE DAY WITH AFTERNOON WIND SPEEDS INCREASING TO AROUND
15 KNOTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 39 25 47 26 / 70 40 0 0
GCK 39 22 47 24 / 70 30 0 0
EHA 43 23 48 28 / 30 10 0 0
LBL 45 24 49 25 / 30 20 0 0
HYS 37 22 45 26 / 70 40 0 0
P28 47 28 49 28 / 40 20 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR KSZ030-031-
043>046-062>066-075>081-085>090.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BURKE
SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM....SUGDEN
AVIATION...BURGERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1109 PM CST TUE FEB 14 2012
.UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR THE 06Z TAFS...
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CST TUE FEB 14 2012
THE CHALLENGE IN THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE
TEMPERATURES/PRECIPITATION TYPE AND WHERE THE HEAVIEST ACCUMULATION
OF PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR.
TONIGHT...A SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER FAR
SOUTHEAST COLORADO THROUGH THE EVENING AND WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
RESPOND OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WIND DIRECTION WILL ACTUALLY BE
A COLD ADVECTION WIND FROM THE WESTERN OKLAHOMA COLD POOL, WHICH IS
SOMETHING YOU DON`T SEE EVERY DAY. THIS IS VERY HIGH-RELATIVE
HUMIDITY AIR AS THE TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS DOWN THERE IN THE
COLD POOL ARE BASICALLY 0 OR 1 DEGREE FAHRENHEIT...EVEN AT DIURNAL
MAXIMUM. ON THE SOUTHEAST WINDS...THIS AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE DDC FORECAST AREA. ALL
SHORT-RANGE MODELS ARE VERY AGGRESSIVE AT DENSE FOG FORMATION AFTER
03Z AND BASED ON THE OBSERVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON UPSTREAM IN WESTERN
OKLAHOMA...IT IS VERY JUSTIFIED. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND INSERTED DENSE
FOG INTO THE GRIDS SOUTHEAST OF A LIBERAL TO CIMARRON TO LACROSSE
LINE. THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IS A BIT LESS FARTHER
NORTHWEST AND THE GENERATION OF PRECIPITATION AFTER MIDNIGHT MAY
PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG FORMATION NORTH OF THIS LINE.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ON INCREASING WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
UPPER LOW AFTER ABOUT 04Z. THIS IS ABOUT THE TIME POPS WILL RAMP UP
IN THE GRIDS FROM 20 PERCENT TO ABOUT 60 PERCENT OVERNIGHT. ALL THE
MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT A SIGNIFICANT WARM LAYER ALOFT, ALBEIT DRY,
EARLY ON. THE PRECIPITATION TYPE IS EXPECTED TO BE RAIN
SHOWERS...HOWEVER THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE WILL BE DROPPING SLOWLY
DOWN INTO THE MID 30S AND LIKELY STOPPING IN THE 33-36F RANGE ON
INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION AND THE REALIZATION OF LOW STRATUS AND
AREAS/WIDESPREAD FOG. AS A RESULT...THE UPDATED OFFICIAL FORECAST
WILL REFLECT LIQUID PRECIPITATION (NOT FREEZING) FOR AREAS SOUTHEAST
OF A SYRACUSE TO SCOTT CITY TO WAKEENEY LINE (THE ENTIRE DDC
FORECAST AREA). THAT BEING SAID...SOME SCATTERED SLEET SHOWERS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT...AND IN THE FAR WEST AND NORTHWEST WILL INCLUDE
MENTION OF SLEET.
TOMORROW...AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES...700MB FRONTOGENESIS WILL BE
INCREASING...AND THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
STRATIFIED IN NATURE ALONG THE 700MB BAROCLINIC ZONE. THE BEST AREA
FOR FRONTOGENETIC PRECIPITATION WILL BE FROM THE
ELKHART-JOHNSON-SYRACUSE AREAS NORTHEAST TOWARD ULYSSES TO GARDEN
CITY...AND EVENTUALLY BY AFTERNOON THE DIGHTON-NESS CITY-WAKEENEY
AREAS. FARTHER SOUTH OF THIS AXIS...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AND POPS WILL BE IN THE 20-40 PERCENT
RANGE. WITHIN THE ZONE OF 700MB FRONTOGENESIS...THE LOWER
TROPOSPHERIC THERMAL PROFILES WILL BE COOLING TO SUPPORT SNOW AT THE
SURFACE. AT AROUND DAYBREAK...THE SNOW LINE SHOULD EXTEND FROM
ROUGHLY ELKHART TO LAKIN TO SCOTT CITY. BY LATE MORNING...THE RAIN
IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW ALONG ROUGHLY A HUGOTON TO
CIMARRON TO NESS CITY AXIS...AND BY MID-AFTERNOON ALONG ROUGHLY A
MINNEOLA TO LARNED LINE.
SNOW INTENSITY WITHIN THE STRONGEST ZONE OF FRONTOGENESIS WILL
LIKELY BE ABOUT A HALF INCH PER HOUR RATE, BUT THIS RATE SHOULD NOT
LAST VERY LONG AT ANY ONE LOCATION. GIVEN WARM SURFACES AND DIURNAL
TIMING OF THE EVENT...ROAD SURFACES WILL PROBABLY BE OKAY IN MOST
AREAS. SLUSHY TO SPOTTY SNOWPACKED ROADS CAN BE EXPECTED IF THE
SNOW RATES ARE MORE THAN EXPECTED AND/OR LAST LONGER THAN EXPECTED
IN ANY ONE LOCATION FROM MID MORNING THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. AN
AVERAGE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION TOTAL OF ONE HALF TO ONE INCH
CONTINUES TO BE IN THE FORECAST BUT A FEW 2 INCH AMOUNTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY FARTHER NORTHWEST FROM ROUGHLY LAKIN TO
DIGHTON TO WAKEENEY...AS THE MID LEVEL CYCLONE TRACKS FROM LIBERAL
TO GREAT BEND DURING THE DAY.
TOMORROW NIGHT...WHATEVER PRECIPITATION REMAINS EARLY IN THE EVENING
WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES AND EXITING QUICKLY...SO
MUCH OF THIS TIME FRAME WILL BE TRANQUIL AS A SURFACE HIGH SETTLES
IN AND WINDS DECREASE QUITE A BIT. LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS A
CHALLENGE AND A LOT WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH SNOW FELL AND
ACCUMULATED. IF AN INCH OR TWO OF FRESH SNOWFALL STILL REMAINS ON
THE GROUND AFTER SUNSET...THEN TEMPERATURES WILL SURELY FALL INTO
THE UPPER TEENS...HOWEVER IF THERE IS A LOT OF MELT GOING ON AS THE
SNOW FALLS WITH NOT MUCH LEFT ON THE GROUND BY SUNSET...THEN LOWS
WILL BE WARMER (LOWER TO MID 20S).
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CST TUE FEB 14 2012
THURSDAY:
WEDNESDAYS UPPER LEVEL WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING WELL TO THE
EAST OF THE FA ON THURSDAY WITH A FLAT MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW
PATTERN LEFT IN ITS WAKE. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE
ACROSS THE PLAINS. WITH SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
SYSTEM, WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY NEAR CLIMO.
FRIDAY/SATURDAY:
KANSAS WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING
ACROSS MEXICO AND A BROAD UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE UPPER MIDWEST
SYSTEM WILL CAUSE THE WEAK TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS
THE STATE, RESULTING IN A WEAK WIND SHIFT. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE A BIT MORE BY THE END OF THE BUSINESS WEEK WITH LOW 50S DEG
F EXPECTED.
SUNDAY:
HAVE KEPT THE ALLBLEND POPS SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
TURNS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AND A WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN ENSUES.
THESE POPS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE
BREEZY AS 850 HPA WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 35 KT ON BOTH GFS/ECMWF
PLUS DECENT LEE SURFACE TROUGHING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UL
DISTURBANCE. HAVE INCREASED WINDS ABOVE THE ALLBLEND AS A RESULT.
THE ECMWF IS LESS AMPLIFIED WITH THE WAVE THAN COMPARED TO THE GFS
AND WITH SLIGHTLY WEAKER DYNAMICS GOING INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE
HIGHEST POPS ARE ALONG INTERSTATE 70 AND LESS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS.
MONDAY ONWARDS:
THE FORECAST BECOMES A BIT MUDDLED MONDAY AND PARTICULARLY INTO
TUESDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A LARGE AND BAGGY TROUGH ACROSS
THE PLAINS. THE ECMWF IS MORE BROAD WITH THE 500 HPA PATTERN THAN
COMPARED TO THE GFS. THIS WOULD RESULT IN A DRY WESTERLY FLOW
PATTERN ACROSS KANSAS...SOMETHING THAT IS NOT TOO CONDUCIVE TO
BRINGING PRECIPITATION HERE. AS A RESULT, HAVE LIMITED POPS BELOW 15
PERCENT AND GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1050 PM CST TUE FEB 14 2012
LATEST NAM, RUC AND HRRR CONTINUES TO INDICATED A 700-900 METER
DEEP LAYER OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADING ACROSS MOST OF
SOUTHWEST AND PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS OVERNIGHT. AS OF
05Z CIGS AT DDC WERE ALREADY AT 200FEET WITH A BKN DECK OF 300FT
CIGS STARTING TO SPREAD INTO GCK. BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATING THE
BOTH DDC AND GCK HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF VSBYS TO FALL BELOW 1/4MILE
EARLY THIS MORING. HAYS VSBYS WILL BE SLIGHTLY BETTER BUT LIFR
CIGS STILL ARE ANTICIAPTED. DENSE FOG WLL BE THE MAIN HAZARD AT
DDC OVERNIGHT BUT AT GCK AND HYS SOME LIGHT RAINSHOWERS WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE AS 850MB WARM AIR ADVECTION IMPROVES. WIND SPEEDS
OVERNIGHT AT ALL THREE TAF SITES WILL BE AT LESS THAN 10KTS.
ON WEDNESDAY THE RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AS THE ATMOSHERE
COOLS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. AS THIS UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH PASSES SOUTHWEST KANSAS/TEXAS PANHANDLE LATE IN THE
DAY...SUBSIDENCE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN ITS WAKE AND AN AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE AREA.
THIS WILL RESULT IN CLEARING SKIES AND DECREASING WINDS...MAINLY
AFTER 00Z THURSDAY. UNTIL THEN NORTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP DURING
EARLY IN THE DAY WITH AFTERNOON WIND SPEEDS INCREASING TO AROUND
15 KNOTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 34 38 25 47 / 40 70 40 0
GCK 34 38 22 47 / 60 70 30 0
EHA 30 43 23 48 / 30 30 10 0
LBL 33 45 24 49 / 20 30 20 0
HYS 31 36 22 45 / 60 70 40 0
P28 34 47 28 49 / 20 40 20 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR KSZ063>066-
077>081-087>090.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BURGERT
SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM....SUGDEN
AVIATION...BURGERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1035 PM CST TUE FEB 14 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1032 PM CST TUE FEB 14 2012
A SOUTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES TO DRAW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK INTO
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. NEW 00Z NAM BURF SOUNDINGS INDICATING THE
POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG NOW AS FAR WEST AS GARDEN CITY. GIVEN THE
UPSLOPE FLOW AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY SPREADING INTO THE
GARDEN CITY VICINITY UNDER CLEAR SKIES HAVE DECIDED TO EXPAND THE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY SEVERAL COUNTIES FURTHER WEST. FURTHER NORTH,
NEAR HAYS, THE MODEL SOUNDINGS APPEAR LESS FAVORABLE FOR DENSE FOG
ALTHOUGH STATUS ALSO IS LIKELY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CST TUE FEB 14 2012
THE CHALLENGE IN THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE
TEMPERATURES/PRECIPITATION TYPE AND WHERE THE HEAVIEST ACCUMULATION
OF PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR.
TONIGHT...A SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER FAR
SOUTHEAST COLORADO THROUGH THE EVENING AND WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
RESPOND OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WIND DIRECTION WILL ACTUALLY BE
A COLD ADVECTION WIND FROM THE WESTERN OKLAHOMA COLD POOL, WHICH IS
SOMETHING YOU DON`T SEE EVERY DAY. THIS IS VERY HIGH-RELATIVE
HUMIDITY AIR AS THE TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS DOWN THERE IN THE
COLD POOL ARE BASICALLY 0 OR 1 DEGREE FAHRENHEIT...EVEN AT DIURNAL
MAXIMUM. ON THE SOUTHEAST WINDS...THIS AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE DDC FORECAST AREA. ALL
SHORT-RANGE MODELS ARE VERY AGGRESSIVE AT DENSE FOG FORMATION AFTER
03Z AND BASED ON THE OBSERVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON UPSTREAM IN WESTERN
OKLAHOMA...IT IS VERY JUSTIFIED. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND INSERTED DENSE
FOG INTO THE GRIDS SOUTHEAST OF A LIBERAL TO CIMARRON TO LACROSSE
LINE. THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IS A BIT LESS FARTHER
NORTHWEST AND THE GENERATION OF PRECIPITATION AFTER MIDNIGHT MAY
PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG FORMATION NORTH OF THIS LINE.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ON INCREASING WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
UPPER LOW AFTER ABOUT 04Z. THIS IS ABOUT THE TIME POPS WILL RAMP UP
IN THE GRIDS FROM 20 PERCENT TO ABOUT 60 PERCENT OVERNIGHT. ALL THE
MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT A SIGNIFICANT WARM LAYER ALOFT, ALBEIT DRY,
EARLY ON. THE PRECIPITATION TYPE IS EXPECTED TO BE RAIN
SHOWERS...HOWEVER THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE WILL BE DROPPING SLOWLY
DOWN INTO THE MID 30S AND LIKELY STOPPING IN THE 33-36F RANGE ON
INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION AND THE REALIZATION OF LOW STRATUS AND
AREAS/WIDESPREAD FOG. AS A RESULT...THE UPDATED OFFICIAL FORECAST
WILL REFLECT LIQUID PRECIPITATION (NOT FREEZING) FOR AREAS SOUTHEAST
OF A SYRACUSE TO SCOTT CITY TO WAKEENEY LINE (THE ENTIRE DDC
FORECAST AREA). THAT BEING SAID...SOME SCATTERED SLEET SHOWERS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT...AND IN THE FAR WEST AND NORTHWEST WILL INCLUDE
MENTION OF SLEET.
TOMORROW...AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES...700MB FRONTOGENESIS WILL BE
INCREASING...AND THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
STRATIFIED IN NATURE ALONG THE 700MB BAROCLINIC ZONE. THE BEST AREA
FOR FRONTOGENETIC PRECIPITATION WILL BE FROM THE
ELKHART-JOHNSON-SYRACUSE AREAS NORTHEAST TOWARD ULYSSES TO GARDEN
CITY...AND EVENTUALLY BY AFTERNOON THE DIGHTON-NESS CITY-WAKEENEY
AREAS. FARTHER SOUTH OF THIS AXIS...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AND POPS WILL BE IN THE 20-40 PERCENT
RANGE. WITHIN THE ZONE OF 700MB FRONTOGENESIS...THE LOWER
TROPOSPHERIC THERMAL PROFILES WILL BE COOLING TO SUPPORT SNOW AT THE
SURFACE. AT AROUND DAYBREAK...THE SNOW LINE SHOULD EXTEND FROM
ROUGHLY ELKHART TO LAKIN TO SCOTT CITY. BY LATE MORNING...THE RAIN
IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW ALONG ROUGHLY A HUGOTON TO
CIMARRON TO NESS CITY AXIS...AND BY MID-AFTERNOON ALONG ROUGHLY A
MINNEOLA TO LARNED LINE.
SNOW INTENSITY WITHIN THE STRONGEST ZONE OF FRONTOGENESIS WILL
LIKELY BE ABOUT A HALF INCH PER HOUR RATE, BUT THIS RATE SHOULD NOT
LAST VERY LONG AT ANY ONE LOCATION. GIVEN WARM SURFACES AND DIURNAL
TIMING OF THE EVENT...ROAD SURFACES WILL PROBABLY BE OKAY IN MOST
AREAS. SLUSHY TO SPOTTY SNOWPACKED ROADS CAN BE EXPECTED IF THE
SNOW RATES ARE MORE THAN EXPECTED AND/OR LAST LONGER THAN EXPECTED
IN ANY ONE LOCATION FROM MID MORNING THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. AN
AVERAGE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION TOTAL OF ONE HALF TO ONE INCH
CONTINUES TO BE IN THE FORECAST BUT A FEW 2 INCH AMOUNTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY FARTHER NORTHWEST FROM ROUGHLY LAKIN TO
DIGHTON TO WAKEENEY...AS THE MID LEVEL CYCLONE TRACKS FROM LIBERAL
TO GREAT BEND DURING THE DAY.
TOMORROW NIGHT...WHATEVER PRECIPITATION REMAINS EARLY IN THE EVENING
WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES AND EXITING QUICKLY...SO
MUCH OF THIS TIME FRAME WILL BE TRANQUIL AS A SURFACE HIGH SETTLES
IN AND WINDS DECREASE QUITE A BIT. LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS A
CHALLENGE AND A LOT WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH SNOW FELL AND
ACCUMULATED. IF AN INCH OR TWO OF FRESH SNOWFALL STILL REMAINS ON
THE GROUND AFTER SUNSET...THEN TEMPERATURES WILL SURELY FALL INTO
THE UPPER TEENS...HOWEVER IF THERE IS A LOT OF MELT GOING ON AS THE
SNOW FALLS WITH NOT MUCH LEFT ON THE GROUND BY SUNSET...THEN LOWS
WILL BE WARMER (LOWER TO MID 20S).
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CST TUE FEB 14 2012
THURSDAY:
WEDNESDAYS UPPER LEVEL WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING WELL TO THE
EAST OF THE FA ON THURSDAY WITH A FLAT MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW
PATTERN LEFT IN ITS WAKE. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE
ACROSS THE PLAINS. WITH SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
SYSTEM, WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY NEAR CLIMO.
FRIDAY/SATURDAY:
KANSAS WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING
ACROSS MEXICO AND A BROAD UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE UPPER MIDWEST
SYSTEM WILL CAUSE THE WEAK TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS
THE STATE, RESULTING IN A WEAK WIND SHIFT. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE A BIT MORE BY THE END OF THE BUSINESS WEEK WITH LOW 50S DEG
F EXPECTED.
SUNDAY:
HAVE KEPT THE ALLBLEND POPS SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
TURNS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AND A WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN ENSUES.
THESE POPS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE
BREEZY AS 850 HPA WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 35 KT ON BOTH GFS/ECMWF
PLUS DECENT LEE SURFACE TROUGHING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UL
DISTURBANCE. HAVE INCREASED WINDS ABOVE THE ALLBLEND AS A RESULT.
THE ECMWF IS LESS AMPLIFIED WITH THE WAVE THAN COMPARED TO THE GFS
AND WITH SLIGHTLY WEAKER DYNAMICS GOING INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE
HIGHEST POPS ARE ALONG INTERSTATE 70 AND LESS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS.
MONDAY ONWARDS:
THE FORECAST BECOMES A BIT MUDDLED MONDAY AND PARTICULARLY INTO
TUESDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A LARGE AND BAGGY TROUGH ACROSS
THE PLAINS. THE ECMWF IS MORE BROAD WITH THE 500 HPA PATTERN THAN
COMPARED TO THE GFS. THIS WOULD RESULT IN A DRY WESTERLY FLOW
PATTERN ACROSS KANSAS...SOMETHING THAT IS NOT TOO CONDUCIVE TO
BRINGING PRECIPITATION HERE. AS A RESULT, HAVE LIMITED POPS BELOW 15
PERCENT AND GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 524 PM CST TUE FEB 14 2012
HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN AND LOWER ACROSS SOUTHWEST
KANSAS THIS EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS
EASTERN ARIZONIA/FAR WESTERN NEW MEXICO. THERE MAY EVEN BE A FEW
SHOWERS DEVELOPING TOWARDS MIDNIGHT AT HAYS AS 850MB WARM AIR
ADVECTION IMPROVES. TEMPERATURE PROFILES AT HAYS INDICATED THE
ATMOSHERE WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR MAINLY RAINSHOWERS EARLY TONIGHT
BUT UNABLE TO RULE OUT A PERIOD OF SLEET AS THE ATMOSHERE BEGINS
TO COOL EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
IMPROVES ON EARLY WEDNESDAY THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT ALL TAF
SITES WILL IMPROVE. RAIN CHANGIN TO SNOW WILL BE LIKELY AT ALL
TERMINALS AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY.
A PERSISTANT SOUTHEAST FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL DRAW HIGHER LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE BACK INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS EARLY TONIGHT. AS THE
LOW LEVELS SATURATE...STATUS AND FOG STILL APPEARS LIKELY. LATEST
HRRR AND RUC STILL POINTS AT DDC HAVING THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR
DENSE FOG BUT VISIBLITIES FALLING TO LESS THAN ONE MILE AT TIMES
AT GCK AND HYS. THE ONSET OF THE LOW STATUS AND FOG IS EXPECTED TO
SPREAD INTO THE DDC AREA BY 04Z WITH VSBYS FALLING TO LESS THAN
ONE MILE BY MIDNIGHT AT GCK AND HYS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 34 38 25 47 / 40 70 40 0
GCK 34 38 22 47 / 60 70 30 0
EHA 30 43 23 48 / 30 30 10 0
LBL 33 45 24 49 / 20 30 20 0
HYS 31 36 22 45 / 60 70 40 0
P28 34 47 28 49 / 20 40 20 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR KSZ066-078>081-
087>090.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BURGERT
SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM....SUGDEN
AVIATION...BURGERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1208 AM EST WED FEB 15 2012
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 PM EST TUE FEB 14 2012
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED AN UPSTREAM MID/UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE ERN DAKOTAS INTO SRN MN. AT THE SFC...LOW
PRES WAS LOCATED OVER SE NORTH DAKOTA. SO FAR..ONLY LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES WERE OBSERVED WITH THE SHRTWV OVER THE DAKOTAS. AHEAD OF
THE LOW WEAK SW FLOW PREVAILED WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM
WI INTO UPPER MI KEEPING LOW CLOUDS OVER THE REGION. WITH THE MILD
AIRMASS OVER THE AREA...TEMPS HAD CLIMBED INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S
DESPITE THE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER.
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...MODELS SUGGEST MID LEVEL FGEN ASSOCIATED
WITH THE DAKOTAS SHRTWV WILL SUPPORT AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW INTO NRN WI
AND UPPER MI LATE TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING. THE FCST LEANS TOWARD
THE 12Z/18Z NAM WITH THE GREATER FORCING/POPS INTO THE SW HALF OF
THE CWA. THERE MAY BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF BRIEF HEAVIER
SNOW...GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE FORCING. HOWEVER...SINCE THERE
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN WHERE ANY STRONGER PCPN BAND MAY
OCCUR...ONLY CHANCE POPS WERE INCLUDED WITH OVERALL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
OF LESS THAN AN INCH.
LOOK FOR MINS TONIGHT TO RANGE MAINLY IN THE LOWER 20S OVER THE WRN
INTERIOR TO THE MID 20S NEAR THE GREAT LAKES AND EAST. HIGH TEMPS
WILL AGAIN CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL...INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 PM EST TUE FEB 14 2012
STRONG NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL NEAR THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...PHASING WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE MOVING NORTHWEST FROM THE PLAINS. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS WERE
SHOWING SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE INTENSITY AND LOCATION OF THIS
PHASING...CAUSING DISCREPANCIES IN QPF AMOUNTS AND LOCATION OF THE
SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM. MOST RECENT RUNS
OF GFS/NAM/ECMWF/GEM HAVE SEEM TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT...WITH
GENERAL CONSENSUS HAVING THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PASSING OVER LOWER
MI BY EARLY AFTERNOON THURSDAY. DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL BE CONFINED
NEAR THE CENTER OF THE LOW...BUT GOOD CONVERGENCE AND DECENT LAPSE
RATES WILL MOVE INTO UPPER MI...ESPECIALLY EAST AS THE SOUTHERN
SHORTWAVE MOVES FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...BRINGING CHANCES FOR
PRECIP BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT SOUTH CENTRAL AND REMAINING DURING
THE DAY THURSDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. NORTHERN WAVE ENERGY WILL
KEEP THE LOW SUPPRESSED FAR ENOUGH SOUTH THAT MOST OF THE MOISTURE
AND LIFT WILL BE CONFINED TO SOUTHEAST WI AND LOWER MI WHERE THE
BEST WAA IS LOCATED...THOUGH 0Z GEM BRINGS SOME OF THE ASSOCIATED
HIGHER QPF VALUES FARTHER NORTH ALONG LAKE MI IN UPPER MI AS WELL.
WILL KEEP WITH HIGHEST QPF AND SNOWFALL TOTALS NEAR THE LAKE MI
SHORELINE...BUT GOING WITH CONSENSUS...ONLY EXPECT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
TO REACH THE 3 TO 5 INCH RANGE IN THIS AREA.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST BY
THURSDAY EVENING...FOLLOWED SHORTLY THEREAFTER BY THE ASSOCIATED
PHASED SHORTWAVE. DRY AIR WILL THEN INFILTRATE FROM WEST TO
EAST...BRINGING AN END TO PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS. AS
THIS TAKES PLACE...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A PREDOMINATE NW DIRECTION
AND STRENGTHEN BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE. COLDER H850 TEMPERATURES WILL
THEN BEGIN FILTERING IN BY THE DAY FRIDAY...ALLOWING INSTABILITY AND
LES CHANCES TO DEVELOP.
DAYS 4 THROUGH 7 /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS THE GENERAL TROUGH PATTERN CONTINUES OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...EXPECT A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TO IMPACT THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. MODELS WILL CONTINUE
HAVING VARYING SOLUTIONS ON TIMING AND LOCATION...WITH THE ECMWF
CONTINUING TO BE THE MOST PROGRESSIVE.
LES CHANCES WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY WITH 0Z ECMWF H850 TEMPS -15C ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND
PREDOMINATE NW WINDS DURING THE DAY. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL HELP KEEP LES EAST OF MUNISING WHERE NW WINDS WILL BE MAXIMIZED
WITH THE FETCH OVER THE LAKE. INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL BE AROUND
6KFT...WITH THE BEST SNOW GROWTH JUST BELOW THIS LAYER. CAPE VALUES
WILL MAX OUT AROUND 18Z SATURDAY...AS WILL THE LES PARAMETER. WITH
LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS...COULD EXPECT HIGHER END SNOW RATIOS IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S. WILL CONTINUE WITH MIDNIGHT SHIFTS DECISION
TO BUMP UP POPS IN NW WIND FAVORED AREAS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. AS
NEXT SHORTWAVE PASSES OVER SATURDAY NIGHT...EXPECT WINDS TO THEN
SHIFT TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION AND H850 TEMPS TO BEGIN
INCREASING BY SUNDAY EVENING...THEREBY BRINGING AN END TO ANY
LINGERING LES CHANCES. 0Z ECMWF/GFS THEN HAVE A SHORT LIVED RIDGE
BUILDING IN ON MONDAY KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY DURING THE DAY.
DECREASING CLOUDS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD SHOULD ALLOW HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO RISE BACK INTO THE MID 30S.
AS RIDGE LIES OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY...A SHORTWAVE
WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS. THIS WILL AMPLIFY THE
RIDGE...WHILE ALSO CAUSING ITS QUICK EXIT TO THE NORTHEAST.
SHORTWAVE WILL THEN REPLACE THE RIDGE AND BRING PRECIP CHANCES BY
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH THE 0Z ECMWF KEEPING THE TRACK OF THIS SHORTWAVE
ACROSS WI AND LOWER MI. WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM...DON/T EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP MUCH...REMAINING IN
THE 20S. ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE WILL REACH CROSS UPPER MI BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH PRECIP CHANCES CONTINUING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1207 AM EST WED FEB 15 2012
MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AT IWD AND CMX. WILL TAKE A BIT
LONGER TO GET THEM INTO SAW WITH A SLIGHT DOWNSLOPE DIRECTION
HELPING TO SUPPRESS THEM A BIT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE TONIGHT SHOULD CONTINUE TO KEEP MVFR
CIGS ACROSS THE REGION. THERE COULD BE A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED MORNING. WHEN THE SNOW ARRIVES AT
SAW...MVFR CIGS SHOULD ACCOMPANY THE SNOW. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN IN THE EVENING AT IWD AND CMX WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN. SAW
WILL KEEP THE MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE WHOLE PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 418 PM EST TUE FEB 14 2012
A SERIES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WILL
KEEP WINDS BELOW 20KTS TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON WED NIGHT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL
LEAD TO NW WINDS UP TO 25KTS OVER ERN LK SUPERIOR. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN MOVE OVER THE AREA FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND AND
KEEP WINDS BELOW 20KTS. WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD...LITTLE TO NO FREEZING SPRAY IS EXPECTED.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
315 AM CST WED FEB 15 2012
.DISCUSSION...
RATHER COMPLITCATED UPPER AIR PATTERN IN PLACE WITH SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWING MULTIPLE WEATHER DISTURBANCES AFFECTING THE AREA IN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE FIRST IS A VORT NOW WEAKENING AND SHEARING
OUT OF CENTRAL MN AS IT MOVES ACROSS N WI. ASSOCIATED -SN WILL BE
NORTH OF OUR AREA BY 12Z.
A PAIR OF UPSTREAM VORTS LURK AHEAD IN THE DKTS WITH ANOTHER DIVING
SE ACROSS SASK. THE MORE WELL DEFINED DKTS FEATURE IS IN W NODAK
NEAR DIK WITH ANOTHER MOVING ACROSS W SODAK. BOTH HAVE LIGHT MIXED
PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THEM. THE 06Z NAM HAS PRETTY GOOD PLACEMENT OF
BOTH OF THESE. SOME CONCERN FOR THE MORNING HOURS THAT THE SOUTHERN
FEATURE MAY CARRY SOME LIGHT MIXED PCPN INTO OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES...WHICH HRRR HAS BEEN ADVERTISING LAST FEW RUNS. PROGGED
SOUNDINGS SHOW TEMP PROFILE WARM ENUF FOR LIQUID AT LEAST AS FAR N
AS THE MVE AREA. IF PCPN HOLDS OFF UNTIL AROUND 15Z...SHUD BE MAINLY
--RA AND --SN...BUT IF IT MOVES IN PRIOR TO THAT HAVE RISK OF --ZR.
WITH LOWER LEVELS TAKING SOME TIME TO SATURATE...WON`T MENTION THE
ZR THREAT. DURING THE AFTN THE BETTER FORCING THEN FOCUSED MORE TO
OUR NORTH AS NODAK VORT LIFTS ACROSS N MN. CONFINED PCPN THEN TO
JUST A S/C -SN IN SOME CENTRAL MN COUNTIES. WEDGE OF CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ATTM WILL BE FILLING IN DURING THE MORNING
AS UPSTREAM SYSTEMS APPROACH AREA.
FOR TONIGHT...KEPT SMALL CHANCE OF --SN IN EASTERN AREAS...BUT FOCUS
OF ANY SIG PCPN WILL BE WELL TO OUR SOUTH AS SHORTWAVE NOW IN NEW
MEXICO LIFTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
A LITTLE COOLER ON THURSDAY ACROSS EASTERN AREAS AS NW WINDS BRING
IN A BIT OF COOLING BEHIND THE WEAK SURFACE TROF MOVING THRU TODAY.
IN THE WEST...WEST WINDS AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM ALREADY BEGIN TO PULL
WARMER AIR BACK IN. MILD THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SW WINDS AHEAD OF
SURFACE LOW DROPPING ACROSS THE DAKTOAS INTO SW MN. NAM AN OUTLIER
WITH SYSTEM DROPPING ACROSS THE AREA MUCH FASTER AND SFC WINDS NW
ACROSS AREA BY 12Z FRIDAY. RETAINED CURRENT DRY FCST...BUT 00Z
ECMWF IS QUIRTING OUT SOME LIGHT QPF MAINLY SW OF MN RIVER INTO SC
MN ON FRIDAY. A BIT COOLER ON SATURDAY BEHIND THIS SYSTEM. LOW
TEMPS SATURDAY MORNING WITH BE TRICKY WITH MODELS SHOWING A FAIRLY
WIDE RANGE IN POSTION OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RANGING FROM SE MN ON
NAM TO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS ON THE GFS.
JURY STILL OUT ON THE MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT SYSTEM. GFS HAS PROBABLY
BEEN THE MOST CONSISENT SHOWING POSSIBLE PCPN OF SIGNIFICANCE...BUT
00Z ECMWF IS BEGINING TO TREND BACK TOWARD THE GFS. TRIMMED BACK ON
THE AREA OF MIXED PCPN WITH MODEL TRENDS NOW FAVORING SURFACE LOW
TRACK MORE ACROSS IOWA.
&&
.AVIATION.../06Z TAF ISSUANCE/
SFC LOW PRES CENTER NEAR KSTC WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE ENE THROUGH
THE AREA OVERNIGHT. SEVERAL BANDS OF -SHSN MOVING THROUGH MAINLY
ERN MN AND WRN WI WILL PRODUCE OCNL IFR CONDS BUT THE TRICKY PART
THROUGH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT WILL BE LOW CIGS TRANSITIONING
TO FOG. CLEARING LINE IS APPROXIMATELY FROM KMOX-KHCD-KSYN-KRST
AND SLOWLY SHIFTING EWD. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FOG FORMING WITH THE
CLEARING ALTHOUGH THE WIND SHIFT TO WSW WITH THE CLEARING IS
BRINGING IN DRIER AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS SO THIS MAY BE
MITIGATING SOME FOG FORMATION. HAVE ISSUED A MUCH MORE OPTIMISTIC
SET OF TAFS...AVOIDING IFR CONDITIONS AND HOLDING CONDITIONS ONLY
AS LOW AS MVFR. AFTER DAYBREAK...LOWER CLOUDS RETURN FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY ACRS THE AREA...THUS HAVE ADVERTISED MVFR CIGS FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE DIVING DOWN FROM THE
NORTH LATE IN THE DAY INTO THE EVENING...BUT CHCS FOR PRECIP ARE
QUITE LOW /ONLY ABOUT 20 PERCENT...AND FOR MAINLY EASTERN TAF
SITES/ SO HAVE REMOVED ITS MENTION FROM THIS TAF SET. CONDITIONS
THEN GRADUALLY IMPROVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
MSP...INITIALIZED WITH VFR CONDITIONS BUT A SCATTERING OF OB
SITES ARND KMSP ARE REPORTING MVFR. ONCE THE CLEARING LINE MOVES
THROUGH AND WINDS SETTLE DOWN A BIT...AM EXPECTING VSBYS TO DROP
INTO THE MVFR RANGE DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. AFTER DAYBREAK...
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR INTO LATE MRNG THEN LOW CLOUDS RETURN
FOR MUCH OF THE AFTN AND EVENING. MODELS INDICATE THAT DECKS WILL
REMAIN IN THE 2-3 KFT RANGE THROUGH LATE EVENING BEFORE RISING TO
VFR LEVELS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
/THU/...VFR UNDER PASSING HIGH PRESSURE.
/FRI/...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DROPPING THROUGH. NO PRECIP EXPECTED ATTM.
/SAT-SUN/...VFR.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
JPC/BAP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1115 PM CST TUE FEB 14 2012
.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO INCLUDE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/UPDATE...
SENT QUICK UPDATE TO GRIDDED AND TEXT PRODUCTS BASED ON RADAR AND
SHORT-TERM TRENDS. SFC LOW PRESSURE CENTERED REFLECTED NICELY ON
KMPX RADAR WITH THE CENTER ROTATING THROUGH CENTRAL MN WEST OF THE
TWIN CITIES. SEVERAL PASSING BANDS HAVE PRODUCED DUSTING
ACCUMULATIONS AS THEY HAVE ROTATED THROUGH...SO HAVE INCRD POPS TO
THE LOW-MID CHC RANGE FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE WFO
MPX COVERAGE AREA. NONE OF THE BANDS ARE LONG-LASTING NOR ARE THEY
PRODUCING ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT...SO AM ONLY EXPECTING A TENTH TO A
QUARTER INCH OF SNOW THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS OVER ERN MN INTO W-CENTRAL WI. LOCAL WRF...SREF AND RUC
ARE HAVING A HARD TIME WITH THE INITIALIZATION WHILE THE 18Z AND
00Z RUNS OF THE HRRR BOTH CAPTURE THINGS QUITE WELL SO AM STICKING
CLOSE TO ITS PROJECTIONS FOR MOST WX ELEMENTS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
&&
.AVIATION.../06Z TAF ISSUANCE/
SFC LOW PRES CENTER NEAR KSTC WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE ENE THROUGH
THE AREA OVERNIGHT. SEVERAL BANDS OF -SHSN MOVING THROUGH MAINLY
ERN MN AND WRN WI WILL PRODUCE OCNL IFR CONDS BUT THE TRICKY PART
THROUGH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT WILL BE LOW CIGS TRANSITIONING
TO FOG. CLEARING LINE IS APPROXIMATELY FROM KMOX-KHCD-KSYN-KRST
AND SLOWLY SHIFTING EWD. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FOG FORMING WITH THE
CLEARING ALTHOUGH THE WIND SHIFT TO WSW WITH THE CLEARING IS
BRINGING IN DRIER AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS SO THIS MAY BE
MITIGATING SOME FOG FORMATION. HAVE ISSUED A MUCH MORE OPTIMISTIC
SET OF TAFS...AVOIDING IFR CONDITIONS AND HOLDING CONDITIONS ONLY
AS LOW AS MVFR. AFTER DAYBREAK...LOWER CLOUDS RETURN FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY ACRS THE AREA...THUS HAVE ADVERTISED MVFR CIGS FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE DIVING DOWN FROM THE
NORTH LATE IN THE DAY INTO THE EVENING...BUT CHCS FOR PRECIP ARE
QUITE LOW /ONLY ABOUT 20 PERCENT...AND FOR MAINLY EASTERN TAF
SITES/ SO HAVE REMOVED ITS MENTION FROM THIS TAF SET. CONDITIONS
THEN GRADUALLY IMPROVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
MSP...INITIALIZED WITH VFR CONDITIONS BUT A SCATTERING OF OB
SITES ARND KMSP ARE REPORTING MVFR. ONCE THE CLEARING LINE MOVES
THROUGH AND WINDS SETTLE DOWN A BIT...AM EXPECTING VSBYS TO DROP
INTO THE MVFR RANGE DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. AFTER DAYBREAK...
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR INTO LATE MRNG THEN LOW CLOUDS RETURN
FOR MUCH OF THE AFTN AND EVENING. MODELS INDICATE THAT DECKS WILL
REMAIN IN THE 2-3 KFT RANGE THROUGH LATE EVENING BEFORE RISING TO
VFR LEVELS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
/THU/...VFR UNDER PASSING HIGH PRESSURE.
/FRI/...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DROPPING THROUGH. NO PRECIP EXPECTED ATTM.
/SAT-SUN/...VFR.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
JPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1134 PM CST Tue Feb 14 2012
...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.DISCUSSION...
Compact, yet potent PV anomaly passing through central Arizona
(several CG strikes noted in advance of cold core aloft) will
rapidly eject into the plains early Wednesday providing the strong
likelihood for widespread rain showers and embedded thunderstorms. A
modest 30-40kt LLJ axis will develop in response to downstream
height falls and lee cyclogenesis pulling an unseasonably high
theta-e airmass north towards a materializing warm front through the
immediate forecast area. Broad, moist isentropic ascent through a
deep 290K-300K layer will support slantwise ascent of low static
stability air such that pockets of elevated mucapes of 100-200 J/kg
will become common through the southern half of the cwa. Have
increased pops above numerical statistical guidance and hastened
precipitation onset given waa regime and historical model biases
under such scenarios.
Aside from a near definite precipitation potential, am concerned
about fog potential overnight in advance and coincident with the
rain shield. Although snow melt has been rather effective under full
insolation this afternoon, residual snow along with cold ground
temperatures juxtaposed with low/mid 40 dewpoints pulled north
appears prime for a widespread advection fog event. However,
uncertainty is greater with respect to how dense this fog may be, or
whether it will lift more into a low stratus deck with enough mixing
to the top of the shallow boundary layer. Future shifts will need to
closely assess the onset time and potential for any advisory
statements.
A second round of showers (or a partial continuation of the morning
activity) and isolated storms also appears very likely through the
late afternoon and evening in association with increasing dynamical
lift in advance of the vorticity center and layered elevated
frontogenesis. With pwats on the order of 0.75 inches and prolonged
forcing, would expect areas of half inch rainfall totals on
partially frozen and moist ground unlocking any left over snow pack.
River headwater guidance remains above one inch for the most part,
so not expecting any significant flooding issues, however some minor
problems may arise on the typical smaller basins.
With little to no cold air advection and the overall system opening
up and weakening, see minimal chance for true deformation banding
and dynamical cooling through a deep column. Thus, will not
advertise any wintry mix before moisture is scoured east with the
shortwave forcing. Pacific high pressure builds east Thursday, with
H9 temperatures remaining above 0C yielding highs at and above
normal for mid-February. Have stayed on the warmer end of guidance
and towards and sref mean for temperatures here.
21
Medium Range (Friday-Tuesday)...
A fairly active weather pattern looks to be in place across the
country through the extended period, with above normal temperatures
and a chance for precipitation early next week expected for the
forecast area. For Friday, the region will be wedged between a large
upper level trough over the Great Lakes region and a closed off
upper low over extreme northern Mexico. Between these two systems an
area of high pressure will be in place over the region, pushing into
the Ohio River Valley through the day. This tracking of the surface
high will lead to a southwesterly/westerly flow into the forecast
area, which will lead to afternoon temperatures 5 to 10F above
seasonal normals. A weak and dry cold front will move through the
region Friday night, shifting winds to the northwest. For Saturday,
a second surface high will move into the Northern and Central
Plains. With a light northerly flow still in place, temperatures
will be slightly cooler than on Friday, but still a few degrees
warmer than normal.
Models are in agreement for keeping the southern closed-off low
south of the region as it tracks eastward along the Gulf coast
Saturday into Sunday. The surface high will progress east of the
region on Sunday, resulting in winds shifting to the southeast and
yet another unseasonably mild winter day. Main focus though will be
on an upper level trough that will move into the Pacific Northwest
on Saturday and move into the Northern and Central Plains by Monday
morning. Discrepancies exist between the GFS/ECMWF with regards to
just how far south this trough will dig into the Central Plains,
ultimately affecting temperatures and possibly precipitation type.
12Z GFS shows a stronger, deeper trough resulting in colder
temperatures being ushered into the region which could result in the
chance for a rain/snow mix across the Missouri/Iowa border. 12Z
ECMWF shows a weaker trough focused primarily across the Northern
Plains, resulting in warmer conditions and precipitation remaining
in the form of rain. Have kept the mention of a rain/snow mix in
extreme northern Missouri and northeast Kansas, but confidence is
not high in having snow mixed in. Precipitation from this system
should exit the region Monday evening. By Tuesday there is a wide
variation amongst the models regarding the chance for additional
precipitation, so have nothing more than slight chance pops at this
time. Temperatures for the start of the work week will be a
continuation of the unseasonably mild trend from the weekend.
ACH
&&
.AVIATION...
For the 06Z TAFs...Watching closely the area of IFR/LIFR ceilings and
visibilities that are expanding northward out of Oklahoma. All latest
guidance suggests this moisture may be slower to reach the KC/STJ
terminals than previously forecast, which makes sense with thick
mid/high clouds making it difficult to cool off the boundary layer
and achieve thick low level saturation. So for now, bumped back the
arrival of IFR/LIFR conditions to after 12Z. RUC and LAMP guidance
suggest conditions may not deteriorate until mid morning. Still
expect restrictions to both cigs and vsbys once this moisture arrives,
with cigs possibly well into LIFR. Areas of rain will overspread the
area through the afternoon, and while there could be some embedded
thunder, the threat for this is too low to include any prolonged
mention of thunder in the TAFs at this point. While there could be
occasional lifts into MVFR during the afternoon, IFR is expected to
be the general rule and this should continue after 00Z behind a cold
front. Showery precipitation behind this front may mix with snow at
times but any wintry precipitation should be light and brief.
Hawblitzel
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO EAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
355 AM CST WED FEB 15 2012
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS
WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND TYPE TODAY...THEN TEMPERATURES.
SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW STRATUS MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. RADAR HAS A FEW
RETURNS IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THIS IS COMING OUR OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS SO
BELIEVE THAT AT MOST IT WOULD BE VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION. VICINITY
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE PRECIPITATION WOULD LIKELY BE FALLING AS
RAIN BUT WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES JUST BELOW FREEZING IT COULD BE
FREEZING RAIN. SO FAR EXPECT THAT IT IS ONLY SPRINKLES OR LIGHT
PRECIPITATION.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN KANSAS DURING
THE DAY TODAY. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD INTO
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND FAR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA DURING THE
MORNING. VICINITY SOUNDINGS HAVE A VERY WARM LAYER ABOVE THE SURFACE
AND EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS LIQUID. WITH TEMPERATURES
NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING THIS WOULD MEAN EITHER RAIN OR FREEZING
RAIN. THE PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO PUSH A LITTLE TO THE NORTH
DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY SHOULD WARM TO
JUST ABOVE FREEZING AND PRECIPITATION SHOULD CHANGE TO RAIN ACROSS
THE AREA. AS THE LOW MOVES TO THE EAST THERE IS SOME CONCERN WITH
THE COLDER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA. SOUNDINGS REVEAL THAT BY THE
TIME THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE COMING TO
AN END. BY EVENING THE COLDER AIR PUSHES INTO THE AREA...BUT THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ENDING ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST DURING THE
EARLY EVENING.
ONCE THIS SYSTEM MOVES TO THE EAST THERE IS ZONAL TO NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH A SURFACE HIGH THAT SETTLES
INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL OR A LITTLE
ABOVE. THE AREAS WITH SNOW WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER.
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE WEEKEND LOOKS GREAT...BUT
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING A RETURN TO WINTRY WEATHER BY MONDAY.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE DRY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH THE
REGION IN A LULL BETWEEN STORM SYSTEMS. THE WIND WILL BE SOUTHERLY
AND THE TEMPERATURES FAIRLY MILD ALLOWING FOR CONTINUED SNOW MELT.
THERE MAY NOT REALLY BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF SNOW COVER LEFT BY THE
END OF THIS WEEKEND. THE SNOW COVER WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE SOME
IMPACT ON HIGH TEMPERATURES UNTIL ITS GONE...BUT THE OVERALL
INFLUENCE ON TEMPERATURES WILL DECREASE EACH DAY AS THERE WILL BE
LESS AND LESS SNOW COVER AROUND.
MONDAY...FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
ROLLING OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON MONDAY.
THERE IS STILL FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT VARIATIONS IN THE TRACK OF THIS
SYSTEM FROM MODEL RUN TO MODEL RUN AND AMONG THE DIFFERING ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE AN ADDITIONAL CHALLENGE WITH
BOTH RAIN AND SNOW POSSIBLE.
THE STORM SYSTEM SHOULD FOR THE MOST PART BE OUT OF THE AREA OR
NEARLY OUT OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1217 AM CST WED FEB 15 2012/
AVIATION...06Z KGRI TAF. THERE CONTINUE TO BE SEVERAL CHALLENGES
FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD INCLUDING THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG AND LOW
CEILINGS. A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS PARTS OF KANSAS TODAY.
THE MOST RECENT FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
ANY ACCUMULATING PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF KGRI.
REDUCED VISIBILITIES DUE TO FOG COULD TURN OUT TO BE A MORE
IMMEDIATE CONCERN AT THE TERMINAL LOCATION WITH VISIBILITY
FORECASTS FROM THE NAM AND HRRR CONTINUING TO SUGGEST SURFACE
VISIBILITIES COULD FALL QUICKLY EARLY THIS MORNING. CEILINGS ARE
ANOTHER CONCERN WITH STRATUS ACROSS PARTS OF OKLAHOMA EXPECTED TO
STREAM ITS WAY NORTH THIS MORNING...BUT QUESTION IF IT WILL MAKE
IT AS FAR NORTH AS KGRI. ANOTHER POSSIBILITY FOR LOWER CEILINGS
WILL EXIST DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT BY LATE MORNING.
CLOUDS WILL SCATTER OUT THIS EVENING.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR KSZ005>007-
017>019.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
255 AM CST WED FEB 15 2012
.DISCUSSION...
VARIABLE SKY COVER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AT 08Z WITH PATCHY
DENSE FOG REPORTED OVER EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA AT KAHQ AND AROUND
KOLU. CLOUDS ENCROACHING FROM THE WEST AND SOUTH AND SHOULD
OVERSPREAD THE AREA BY 12Z. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP STILL LOOKS
TO BE OVER SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA...GENERALLY SOUTH OF I80
AFTER 12Z. TIMING HOWEVER MAY BE A PROBLEM AS LATEST RUC FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW LIMITED MID LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH MID MORNING
ALONG THE KANSAS BORDER THERE. HAVE LIMITED CHANCE POPS IN THAT
AREA THROUGH THE MORNING IN LINE WITH BOTH THE GFS AND NAM. BASED
ON THIS START TIME SHOULD SEE MAINLY RAIN THIS MORNING. AREA OF
RAIN THEN SPREADS NORTH FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH CHANCE POPS TO JUST
SOUTH OF THE OMAHA AREA INTO LINCOLN AND SOUTHWEST CORNER OF IOWA.
A CHANCE OF MIXED RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN IN THE EVENING FOR FAR
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST CORNER OF IOWA BEFORE PRECIP
SLIDES EAST AND ENDS. NO HEADLINES ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
LOOKS DRY AFTER THAT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH MODELS DIFFER
IN TIMING OF CLIPPER AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THAT COMES ACROSS
THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH THE GFS STRONGER WITH ITS FEATURES THAN
THE NAM OR EURO.
UPPER RIDGING MOVES INTO THE REGION EARLY IN THE EXTENDED WITH
SOMEWHAT WARMER TEMPERATURES BUT FAIRLY STRONG WAVE FOLLOWS FAST
ON ITS HEELS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. GFS AGAIN STRONGER THAN THE
EURO WITH THIS SYSTEM SO LOW CONFIDENCE WITH TIMING AND TRACK.
TIMING ISSUES THEN CONTINUE BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF FOR KOMA...KLNK AND KOFK.
FOG WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THE TAF SITES...AND PRIMARILY
AT KLNK/KOMA. MID CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED THE AREA WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOG TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP...ALREADY 5
MILES AT KLNK. DROPPED VISIBILITY TO 5 MILES WITH IFR CEILINGS
DEVELOPING... BUT BELIEVE CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY 15Z WITH
JUST SOME HAZE AFTER THAT. REGARDING PRECIPITATION...BELIEVE
PRECIP MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE KS/NE BORDER REGION...BUT HAVE DOUBTS
THAT IT WOULD MAKE IT AS FAR NORTH AS KLNK/KOMA. ALSO FORECAST A
WIND SHIFT...FROM GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE...TO NORTH
NORTHWEST...INITIALLY AT KOFK AT 16Z...THEN AT AT KLNK/KOMA BY
ABOUT 20Z.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
FOBERT/DEWALD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1217 AM CST WED FEB 15 2012
.AVIATION...06Z KGRI TAF. THERE CONTINUE TO BE SEVERAL CHALLENGES
FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD INCLUDING THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG AND LOW
CEILINGS. A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS PARTS OF KANSAS TODAY.
THE MOST RECENT FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
ANY ACCUMULATING PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF KGRI.
REDUCED VISIBILITIES DUE TO FOG COULD TURN OUT TO BE A MORE
IMMEDIATE CONCERN AT THE TERMINAL LOCATION WITH VISIBILITY
FORECASTS FROM THE NAM AND HRRR CONTINUING TO SUGGEST SURFACE
VISIBILITIES COULD FALL QUICKLY EARLY THIS MORNING. CEILINGS ARE
ANOTHER CONCERN WITH STRATUS ACROSS PARTS OF OKLAHOMA EXPECTED TO
STREAM ITS WAY NORTH THIS MORNING...BUT QUESTION IF IT WILL MAKE
IT AS FAR NORTH AS KGRI. ANOTHER POSSIBILITY FOR LOWER CEILINGS
WILL EXIST DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT BY LATE MORNING.
CLOUDS WILL SCATTER OUT THIS EVENING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 PM CST TUE FEB 14 2012/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...
GENERAL CONSENSUS OF MODELS REGARDING THE TRACK OF THE LOW COMING
OUT OF THE ROCKIES IS THAT THIS WILL IMPACT ESSENTIALLY THE
SOUTHEAST ONE THIRD TO ONE HALF OF THE CWA TO VARYING
DEGREES...DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL SOLUTION ONE BELIEVES.
SOUNDING LOOK DRY FOR TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...BUT
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE FOR OUR NORTH CENTRAL COUNTIES INCREASES
LATE TONIGHT WITH A SIGNIFICANT DRY LAYER POINTING TOWARD A LIGHT
ICING EVENT AS A SIGNIFICANT WARM LAYER EXISTS ABOVE THE SURFACE.
SREF ENSEMBLES ARE FAIRLY SLUGGISH BRINGING CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION NORTH...WHICH WORKS TO OUR FAVOR TO AVOID FREEZING
RAIN AND SLEET FOR MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. SNOW AMOUNTS
APPEAR TO BE MINIMAL AND BELOW A HALF INCH IN THIS CASE.
BY AFTERNOON...ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE RAIN OR SNOW AS THE WARM
LAYER COOLS OFF AND EVERY MODEL SOLUTION POINTS TO THIS. ISSUING A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY 3 AM TO NOON FOR POTENTIAL FREEZING
DRIZZLE/RAIN IN THE SOUTH WHICH WILL PRODUCE A POTENTIAL LIGHT
GLAZE. ANOTHER THING TO WATCH OUT FOR IS SOME FOG IN THE SOUTHEAST
HALF OF THE CWA. SIGNALS ARE PRETTY STRONG FOR THIS FROM THE SREF.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB JUST ABOVE FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE CWA IN
THE AFTERNOON ACCORDING TO MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS.
LONG TERM...STARTING 00Z THURSDAY. GUIDANCE SUGGEST THE MID AND
UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN RATHER ACTIVE WITH SEVERAL SMALL
SCALE PERTURBATIONS PUSHING OVERHEAD DURING THE TIME PERIOD.
FORCING WITH MANY OF THESE DISTURBANCES WILL REMAIN VERY WEAK
HOWEVER...AND AN OVERALL LACK OF LOWER TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE
SHOULD PREVENT PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION FROM OCCURRING ACROSS OUR
AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC BOTH SUGGEST A
MORE SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL SYSTEM WILL ADVANCE EAST FROM THE
WESTERN CONUS DURING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...BRINGING WITH
IT INCREASED MID LEVEL THERMAL ADVECTION AND RESULTANT LIFT. LOWER
TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE SHOULD ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE BY SUNDAY AS
LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW ESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS THE REGION TO
FINISH OUT THE WEEKEND. GIVEN ALL THIS...WENT AHEAD AND KEPT POPS
ACROSS THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE EC REMAINS SOMEWHAT
SLOWER PUSHING THE SYSTEM OUT OF OUR AREA WHEN COMPARED TO THE GFS
AND AS A RESULT...ALSO KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LINGERING ACROSS
OUR EAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
A PERSISTENT DOWN SLOPING LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD THROUGH SATURDAY WILL
LIKELY PROMOTE WARMER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA...ALTHOUGH SNOW
PACK WILL HAMPER FULL TEMPERATURE RECOVERY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. AS A RESULT...KEPT DAYTIME TEMPERATURE RISES
UNDER 20 DEGREES ACROSS MANY OF OUR NEBRASKA COUNTIES...WITH LARGER
TEMPERATURE RISES ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA WHERE SNOW
PACK HAS ALREADY DIMINISHED. FULL DAY TIME TEMPERATURE RECOVERY
COULD BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK ASSUMING
SUFFICIENT SNOW MELT...BUT INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLE
PRECIPITATION SUGGEST DAY TIME TEMPERATURE RISES WILL ALSO BE
HAMPERED SOMEWHAT EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALL THAT BEING SAID...FORECAST
TEMPERATURES IN THE LONG TERM WILL REMAIN AT NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE-NORMAL LEVELS...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 20S AND
LOW 30S...AND DAYTIME HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 30S AND 40S.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR KSZ005>007-
017>019.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
301 AM EST WED FEB 15 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
SLIDE SOUTH OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. LIGHT SNOW AND SCATTERED
FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THIS HAPPENS. BY WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS
WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA
FROM THE WEST. BY THURSDAY...ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL BARE DOWN ON
THE REGION WHICH WILL LEAD TO THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION
ACROSS NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND CENTRAL NEW YORK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
1 AM UPDATE... THE CURRENT FCST IS IN GOOD SHAPE...SO ONLY MINOR
TWEAKS WERE MADE TO IT.
RADAR MOSAIC CONTS TO SHOW PATCHY -RA/-SN OVER MUCH OF THE FA
ATTM. AS AN UPR-LVL WAVE PROGRESSES THROUGH THE RGN EARLY THIS
MRNG...THIS PCPN SHOULD PERSIST TIL 09-12Z...BEFORE DIMINISHING TO
SPOTTY FLRYS/SPRINKLES. WE ADDED SOME VERY LGT SNOW ACCUMS PRIOR
TO DAYBRK...OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NE PA AND THE CATSKILLS.
WE`VE RECEIVED A COUPLE OF REPORTS OF A COATING OF SNOW THESE
AREAS OVER THE PAST FEW HRS.
MASSAGED NEAR-TERM TEMP GRIDS A BIT...TO BETTER REFLECT THE LATEST
SFC OBS...AND ALSO BLEND IN THE MOST RECENT LAV TEMPS.
1000 PM UPDATE...
A SHORT WAVE OVER NW PA AND WESTERN NY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHEAST OVER THE CWA THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AN AREA OF LIGHT
SNOW OVER NORTHERN PA WILL SLIDE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CATSKILLS
THROUGH 07Z. WITH SURFACE TEMPS NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING...ONLY A
DUSTING AT MOST IS EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE
FOR THIS OCCURRING OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN. ASIDE FROM THIS AREA
OF SNOW...THE REST OF THE NIGHT FOR MOST OF OUR AREA LOOKS VERY
QUIET. A LOOK AT 0Z SOUNDINGS FROM BUFFALO AND PITTSBURGH ALONG
WITH RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE EASED THE CONCERN FOR FREEZING
DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT SOMEWHAT. WHILE WE DO HAVE DRIER AIR WORKING
INTO THE MID LEVELS...WE ARE STILL FAIRLY MOIST UP THROUGH
-14C/-15C...SO WE SHOULD HAVE SOME ICE CRYSTALS TO WORK WITH. I
NOTICED THAT MOST OF THE OBS TO THE WEST THAT REPORTED PLAIN
DRIZZLE WERE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE LAKES...AND PROBABLY BEING
INFLUENCED BY THEM. WHILE SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE HERE AND THEIR CAN`T
ENTIRELY BE RULED OUT...THINKING THAT WHAT LITTLE PRECIP WE SEE
FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT WILL BE JUST SOME SCT. FLURRIES.
IT SEEMS OUR BEST SHOT AT A CHANGEOVER TO DRIZZLE WOULD BE MORE
TOWARD MID-MORNING WEDNESDAY AS WE BEGIN TO DRY OUT DOWN TOWARD
THE -10C LAYER. HOWEVER BY THE TIME THIS HAPPENS...BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPS WILL WARM ENOUGH THAT IT SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE. THE
PREVIOUS AFD IS BELOW...
630 PM UPDATE...
FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN VERY GOOD SHAPE WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS
THE ENTIRE CWA THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS. DESPITE RETURNS OF NEAR
20 DBZ ON RADAR...OBS ACROSS OUR AREA ARE SHOWING VERY...VERY
LIGHT SNOW WITH VSBYS IN THE 4 TO 6SM RANGE. IN FACT ACROSS THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS JUST SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE HAS BEEN REPORTED
AT SYRACUSE AND AVOCA IS STILL 41! PRECIP WILL REMAIN LIGHT OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS BUT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENS A BIT AND
TEMPS COOL TO NEAR FREEZING WE MAY SEE A QUICK COATING OF SNOW
OVER THE FAR NORTH (ONEIDA COUNTY). WE ARE ALREADY SEEING DRYING
TO OUR WEST AND OUR NEXT CONCERN WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR SOME
FREEZING DRIZZLE TONIGHT. THE PREVIOUS AFD ALREADY ADDRESSES THIS
CONCERN AND WILL MONITOR AND UPDATE AS NEEDED LATER TONIGHT.
SHORTWAVE ENERGY CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE EASTERN OHIO RVR VLY
WILL SLIDE SOUTH OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. CURRENT REGIONAL RADAR
IMAGERY DEPICTING MOST CONCENTRATED ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHERN PA...WITH
LIGHTER ACTIVITY NOTED FURTHER TO THE NORTH. WITH TIME THIS
EVENING...SHORTWAVE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION KEEPING THE BEST
FORCING FOR ASCENT SOUTH OF THE CWA. THAT SAID...MAIN CONCERN WITH
GOING FORECAST WILL BE INCREASING PROSPECTS FOR -FZDZ OVERNIGHT AS
AFOREMENTIONED WAVE INTERACTS WITH AN APPROACHING ELEVATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE SUBSTANTIAL DRYING ALOFT AS
WEAK UPPER RIDGING APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. AS THIS OCCURS...ICE
CRYSTAL GROWTH POTENTIAL WILL DECREASE WITH LOSS OF
SATURATION...THUS INTRODUCING THE POTENTIAL FOR -FZDZ ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AS MOISTURE REMAINS CONFINED IN THE LOWEST 10KFT.
WITH ONLY LIGHT QPF EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT...ANY -FZDZ THAT DEVELOPS WILL LIKELY BE PATCHY IN
NATURE AND HAVE DECIDED TO JUST ADVERTISE POTENTIAL IN THE HWO
PRODUCT FOR NOW. WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER ALOFT...OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
BY WED...SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND ELEVATED FRONT WILL BE DEPARTING TO
OUR EAST AS WEAK UPPER RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST IN
ADVANCE OF A CENTRAL PLAINS TROUGH. DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN HOW
QUICKLY PRECIP WILL EXIT TO THE EAST WED MORNING...BUT MODEL
INDICATIONS SUGGEST IMPROVING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. HAVE MAINTAINED SLGT CHC MENTION ACROSS
THE EASTERN CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON HRS...WITH MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED WED NIGHT AREA WIDE AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OVER THE AREA. HIGH TEMPS WED SHOULD WARM INTO THE UPPER 30S
TO NEAR 40 ALONG AND WEST OF I-81...WITH COOLER VALUES EXPECTED TO
THE EAST.
AFOREMENTIONED PLAINS DISTURBANCE WILL THEN TAKE AIM AT THE REGION BY
EARLY THU MORNING. PER CURRENT MODEL TRENDS...DRY NEAR SURFACE
LAYER CONDITIONS WILL REQUIRE COLUMN SATURATION BEFORE PRECIP
MAKES ITS WAY TO THE GROUND...AND HAVE ELECTED TO DELAY THE
PRECIP ARRIVAL TIME BY A FEW HRS THU MORNING AS A RESULT. WHEN PRECIP
DOES ARRIVE AFTER 12Z...MAIN CONCERN WILL BE PRECIP TYPE. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING OFF TO OUR EAST COMBINED WITH AN APPROACHING WARM
FRONT SUGGEST WE MAY RECEIVE A BRIEF WINTRY MIX THU MORNING BEFORE
BULK OF ACTIVITY TRANSITIONS INTO RA AS REGION GETS ENTRENCHED IN
THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF MAIN COLD FRONT. CURRENT LOW TRACK TAKES LOW
FROM NEAR DETROIT NORTHEAST TO NORTH BAY, ON WHICH CERTAINLY IS
REMINISCENT OF ANY SIGNIFICANT MIXED PRECIP EVENTS. THAT
SAID...MAIN AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY WERE AGEOSTROPIC WIND CIRCULATIONS MAY KEEP COLD AIR
ENTRENCHED FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME. ALL TOLD...HAVE DECIDED TO
ENTER A WINTRY MIX MENTION IN THE MORNING...WITH WITH A GRADUAL
CHANGEOVER TO RA AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. WILL CERTAINLY HAVE TO
WATCH TRENDS IN THE COMING DAYS TO PIN DOWN THE DETAILS AS THE
EVENT NEARS.
BY THU NIGHT...MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE POST FRONTAL WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION SLOWLY WORKING INTO THE AREA. LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE FRI AS WESTERLY WINDS DOWN THE LENGTH OF THE
LAKE COMBINE WITH H85 TEMPS -11C. CURRENT BUFKIT PROFILES SUGGEST
BEST POTENTIAL FOR ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT WILL BE NORTH OF CWA IN
WELL ALIGNED 270-280 FLOW HOWEVER MEAGER INVERSION HEIGHTS
HOWEVER MAY BE A LIMITING FACTOR.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH SHARP DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS
AND EURO SOLUTIONS. EACH SHOW A NORTHEASTERN TROF. HOWEVER THE GFS
SOLUTION CALLS FOR A VIGOROUS, SHARP TROF WITH A STRONG STACKED
LOW OVER LAKE ERIE AND AN EVEN STRONGER STORM SOUTHEAST OF LONG
ISLAND. THE EURO CALLS FOR A MUCH GENTLER TROF, WITH LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF WEATHER REFLECTED.
MODELS PHASE INTO STRONG AGREEMENT THAT A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL BUILD ALONG THE COAST FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WITH
NOTICEABLE RIDGING ALOFT. THE RESULT WOULD BE MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES, AND CLEAR WEATHER.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WEAK TROF OF LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING THOUGH THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION. LIGHT FOG AND VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE NORTH
OF THE TROF, INTO NY AND PA. THIS WILL BRING MAINLY MVFR
CONDITIONS TO THE REGION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
A PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS IS EXPECTED AT BGM BETWEEN 7Z AND 12Z,
WITH FORECAST CEILING HEIGHTS FLUCTUATING BETWEEN 700 AND 1200 FEET.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT LATER TODAY,
ALLOWING THE ATMOSPHERE TO DRY, AND CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE.
VISIBILITIES WILL BE QUICKEST TO REACH VFR TERRITORY BY LATE
MORNING. VFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TOWARD SUNSET.
.OUTLOOK...
WED NGT...VFR.
THUR...IFR/MVFR IN -SHRA AND PSBLY SOME MIXED PCPN AT ONSET.
FRI/SAT...MAINLY VFR.
SUN...VFR...PSBL MVFR/IFR PA WITH SNOW.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CMG
NEAR TERM...CMG/HEDEN/MLJ
SHORT TERM...CMG
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...DJP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
122 AM EST WED FEB 15 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
SLIDE SOUTH OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. LIGHT SNOW AND SCATTERED
FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THIS HAPPENS. BY WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS
WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA
FROM THE WEST. BY THURSDAY...ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL BARE DOWN ON
THE REGION WHICH WILL LEAD TO THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION
ACROSS NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND CENTRAL NEW YORK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
1 AM UPDATE... THE CURRENT FCST IS IN GOOD SHAPE...SO ONLY MINOR
TWEAKS WERE MADE TO IT.
RADAR MOSAIC CONTS TO SHOW PATCHY -RA/-SN OVER MUCH OF THE FA
ATTM. AS AN UPR-LVL WAVE PROGRESSES THROUGH THE RGN EARLY THIS
MRNG...THIS PCPN SHOULD PERSIST TIL 09-12Z...BEFORE DIMINISHING TO
SPOTTY FLRYS/SPRINKLES. WE ADDED SOME VERY LGT SNOW ACCUMS PRIOR
TO DAYBRK...OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NE PA AND THE CATSKILLS.
WE`VE RECEIVED A COUPLE OF REPORTS OF A COATING OF SNOW THESE
AREAS OVER THE PAST FEW HRS.
MASSAGED NEAR-TERM TEMP GRIDS A BIT...TO BETTER REFLECT THE LATEST
SFC OBS...AND ALSO BLEND IN THE MOST RECENT LAV TEMPS.
1000 PM UPDATE...
A SHORT WAVE OVER NW PA AND WESTERN NY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHEAST OVER THE CWA THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AN AREA OF LIGHT
SNOW OVER NORTHERN PA WILL SLIDE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CATSKILLS
THROUGH 07Z. WITH SURFACE TEMPS NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING...ONLY A
DUSTING AT MOST IS EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE
FOR THIS OCCURRING OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN. ASIDE FROM THIS AREA
OF SNOW...THE REST OF THE NIGHT FOR MOST OF OUR AREA LOOKS VERY
QUIET. A LOOK AT 0Z SOUNDINGS FROM BUFFALO AND PITTSBURGH ALONG
WITH RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE EASED THE CONCERN FOR FREEZING
DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT SOMEWHAT. WHILE WE DO HAVE DRIER AIR WORKING
INTO THE MID LEVELS...WE ARE STILL FAIRLY MOIST UP THROUGH
-14C/-15C...SO WE SHOULD HAVE SOME ICE CRYSTALS TO WORK WITH. I
NOTICED THAT MOST OF THE OBS TO THE WEST THAT REPORTED PLAIN
DRIZZLE WERE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE LAKES...AND PROBABLY BEING
INFLUENCED BY THEM. WHILE SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE HERE AND THEIR CAN`T
ENTIRELY BE RULED OUT...THINKING THAT WHAT LITTLE PRECIP WE SEE
FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT WILL BE JUST SOME SCT. FLURRIES.
IT SEEMS OUR BEST SHOT AT A CHANGEOVER TO DRIZZLE WOULD BE MORE
TOWARD MID-MORNING WEDNESDAY AS WE BEGIN TO DRY OUT DOWN TOWARD
THE -10C LAYER. HOWEVER BY THE TIME THIS HAPPENS...BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPS WILL WARM ENOUGH THAT IT SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE. THE
PREVIOUS AFD IS BELOW...
630 PM UPDATE...
FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN VERY GOOD SHAPE WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS
THE ENTIRE CWA THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS. DESPITE RETURNS OF NEAR
20 DBZ ON RADAR...OBS ACROSS OUR AREA ARE SHOWING VERY...VERY
LIGHT SNOW WITH VSBYS IN THE 4 TO 6SM RANGE. IN FACT ACROSS THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS JUST SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE HAS BEEN REPORTED
AT SYRACUSE AND AVOCA IS STILL 41! PRECIP WILL REMAIN LIGHT OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS BUT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENS A BIT AND
TEMPS COOL TO NEAR FREEZING WE MAY SEE A QUICK COATING OF SNOW
OVER THE FAR NORTH (ONEIDA COUNTY). WE ARE ALREADY SEEING DRYING
TO OUR WEST AND OUR NEXT CONCERN WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR SOME
FREEZING DRIZZLE TONIGHT. THE PREVIOUS AFD ALREADY ADDRESSES THIS
CONCERN AND WILL MONITOR AND UPDATE AS NEEDED LATER TONIGHT.
SHORTWAVE ENERGY CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE EASTERN OHIO RVR VLY
WILL SLIDE SOUTH OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. CURRENT REGIONAL RADAR
IMAGERY DEPICTING MOST CONCENTRATED ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHERN PA...WITH
LIGHTER ACTIVITY NOTED FURTHER TO THE NORTH. WITH TIME THIS
EVENING...SHORTWAVE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION KEEPING THE BEST
FORCING FOR ASCENT SOUTH OF THE CWA. THAT SAID...MAIN CONCERN WITH
GOING FORECAST WILL BE INCREASING PROSPECTS FOR -FZDZ OVERNIGHT AS
AFOREMENTIONED WAVE INTERACTS WITH AN APPROACHING ELEVATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE SUBSTANTIAL DRYING ALOFT AS
WEAK UPPER RIDGING APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. AS THIS OCCURS...ICE
CRYSTAL GROWTH POTENTIAL WILL DECREASE WITH LOSS OF
SATURATION...THUS INTRODUCING THE POTENTIAL FOR -FZDZ ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AS MOISTURE REMAINS CONFINED IN THE LOWEST 10KFT.
WITH ONLY LIGHT QPF EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT...ANY -FZDZ THAT DEVELOPS WILL LIKELY BE PATCHY IN
NATURE AND HAVE DECIDED TO JUST ADVERTISE POTENTIAL IN THE HWO
PRODUCT FOR NOW. WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER ALOFT...OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BY WED...SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND ELEVATED FRONT WILL BE DEPARTING TO
OUR EAST AS WEAK UPPER RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST IN
ADVANCE OF A CENTRAL PLAINS TROUGH. DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN HOW
QUICKLY PRECIP WILL EXIT TO THE EAST WED MORNING...BUT MODEL
INDICATIONS SUGGEST IMPROVING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. HAVE MAINTAINED SLGT CHC MENTION ACROSS
THE EASTERN CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON HRS...WITH MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED WED NIGHT AREA WIDE AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OVER THE AREA. HIGH TEMPS WED SHOULD WARM INTO THE UPPER 30S
TO NEAR 40 ALONG AND WEST OF I-81...WITH COOLER VALUES EXPECTED TO
THE EAST.
AFOREMENTIONED PLAINS DISTURBANCE WILL THEN TAKE AIM AT THE REGION BY
EARLY THU MORNING. PER CURRENT MODEL TRENDS...DRY NEAR SURFACE
LAYER CONDITIONS WILL REQUIRE COLUMN SATURATION BEFORE PRECIP
MAKES ITS WAY TO THE GROUND...AND HAVE ELECTED TO DELAY THE
PRECIP ARRIVAL TIME BY A FEW HRS THU MORNING AS A RESULT. WHEN PRECIP
DOES ARRIVE AFTER 12Z...MAIN CONCERN WILL BE PRECIP TYPE. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING OFF TO OUR EAST COMBINED WITH AN APPROACHING WARM
FRONT SUGGEST WE MAY RECEIVE A BRIEF WINTRY MIX THU MORNING BEFORE
BULK OF ACTIVITY TRANSITIONS INTO RA AS REGION GETS ENTRENCHED IN
THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF MAIN COLD FRONT. CURRENT LOW TRACK TAKES LOW
FROM NEAR DETROIT NORTHEAST TO NORTH BAY, ON WHICH CERTAINLY IS
REMINISCENT OF ANY SIGNIFICANT MIXED PRECIP EVENTS. THAT
SAID...MAIN AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY WERE AGEOSTROPIC WIND CIRCULATIONS MAY KEEP COLD AIR
ENTRENCHED FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME. ALL TOLD...HAVE DECIDED TO
ENTER A WINTRY MIX MENTION IN THE MORNING...WITH WITH A GRADUAL
CHANGEOVER TO RA AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. WILL CERTAINLY HAVE TO
WATCH TRENDS IN THE COMING DAYS TO PIN DOWN THE DETAILS AS THE
EVENT NEARS.
BY THU NIGHT...MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE POST FRONTAL WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION SLOWLY WORKING INTO THE AREA. LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE FRI AS WESTERLY WINDS DOWN THE LENGTH OF THE
LAKE COMBINE WITH H85 TEMPS -11C. CURRENT BUFKIT PROFILES SUGGEST
BEST POTENTIAL FOR ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT WILL BE NORTH OF CWA IN
WELL ALIGNED 270-280 FLOW HOWEVER MEAGER INVERSION HEIGHTS
HOWEVER MAY BE A LIMITING FACTOR.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE
NORTHEAST ALONG WITH A WEAK SFC LOW MOVING THROUGH THE REGION ON
SATURDAY. THESE FEATURES WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC
POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK. SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS THERE COULD BE A MIX OF RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
NORTHEAST AS SFC HIGH PRES FROM CENTRAL CANADA DROPS SOUTH AND
RESIDES OVER THE AREA. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
PERIOD.
TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WEAK TROF OF LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING THOUGH THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION. LIGHT FOG AND VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE NORTH
OF THE TROF, INTO NY AND PA. THIS WILL BRING MAINLY MVFR
CONDITIONS TO THE REGION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
A PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS IS EXPECTED AT BGM BETWEEN 7Z AND 12Z,
WITH FORECAST CEILING HEIGHTS FLUCTUATING BETWEEN 700 AND 1200 FEET.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT LATER TODAY,
ALLOWING THE ATMOSPHERE TO DRY, AND CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE.
VISIBILITIES WILL BE QUICKEST TO REACH VFR TERRITORY BY LATE
MORNING. VFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TOWARD SUNSET.
.OUTLOOK...
WED NGT...VFR.
THUR...IFR/MVFR IN -SHRA AND PSBLY SOME MIXED PCPN AT ONSET.
FRI/SAT...MAINLY VFR.
SUN...VFR...PSBL MVFR/IFR PA WITH SNOW.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CMG
NEAR TERM...CMG/HEDEN/MLJ
SHORT TERM...CMG
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...DJP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
1231 AM EST WED FEB 15 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
SLIDE SOUTH OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. LIGHT SNOW AND SCATTERED
FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THIS HAPPENS. BY WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS
WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA
FROM THE WEST. BY THURSDAY...ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL BARE DOWN ON
THE REGION WHICH WILL LEAD TO THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION
ACROSS NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND CENTRAL NEW YORK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
1000 PM UPDATE...
A SHORT WAVE OVER NW PA AND WESTERN NY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHEAST OVER THE CWA THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AN AREA OF LIGHT
SNOW OVER NORTHERN PA WILL SLIDE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CATSKILLS
THROUGH 07Z. WITH SURFACE TEMPS NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING...ONLY A
DUSTING AT MOST IS EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE
FOR THIS OCCURRING OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN. ASIDE FROM THIS AREA
OF SNOW...THE REST OF THE NIGHT FOR MOST OF OUR AREA LOOKS VERY
QUIET. A LOOK AT 0Z SOUNDINGS FROM BUFFALO AND PITTSBURGH ALONG
WITH RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE EASED THE CONCERN FOR FREEZING
DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT SOMEWHAT. WHILE WE DO HAVE DRIER AIR WORKING
INTO THE MID LEVELS...WE ARE STILL FAIRLY MOIST UP THROUGH
-14C/-15C...SO WE SHOULD HAVE SOME ICE CRYSTALS TO WORK WITH. I
NOTICED THAT MOST OF THE OBS TO THE WEST THAT REPORTED PLAIN
DRIZZLE WERE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE LAKES...AND PROBABLY BEING
INFLUENCED BY THEM. WHILE SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE HERE AND THEIR CAN`T
ENTIRELY BE RULED OUT...THINKING THAT WHAT LITTLE PRECIP WE SEE
FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT WILL BE JUST SOME SCT. FLURRIES.
IT SEEMS OUR BEST SHOT AT A CHANGEOVER TO DRIZZLE WOULD BE MORE
TOWARD MID-MORNING WEDNESDAY AS WE BEGIN TO DRY OUT DOWN TOWARD
THE -10C LAYER. HOWEVER BY THE TIME THIS HAPPENS...BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPS WILL WARM ENOUGH THAT IT SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE. THE
PREVIOUS AFD IS BELOW...
630 PM UPDATE...
FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN VERY GOOD SHAPE WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS
THE ENTIRE CWA THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS. DESPITE RETURNS OF NEAR
20 DBZ ON RADAR...OBS ACROSS OUR AREA ARE SHOWING VERY...VERY
LIGHT SNOW WITH VSBYS IN THE 4 TO 6SM RANGE. IN FACT ACROSS THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS JUST SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE HAS BEEN REPORTED
AT SYRACUSE AND AVOCA IS STILL 41! PRECIP WILL REMAIN LIGHT OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS BUT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENS A BIT AND
TEMPS COOL TO NEAR FREEZING WE MAY SEE A QUICK COATING OF SNOW
OVER THE FAR NORTH (ONEIDA COUNTY). WE ARE ALREADY SEEING DRYING
TO OUR WEST AND OUR NEXT CONCERN WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR SOME
FREEZING DRIZZLE TONIGHT. THE PREVIOUS AFD ALREADY ADDRESSES THIS
CONCERN AND WILL MONITOR AND UPDATE AS NEEDED LATER TONIGHT.
SHORTWAVE ENERGY CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE EASTERN OHIO RVR VLY
WILL SLIDE SOUTH OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. CURRENT REGIONAL RADAR
IMAGERY DEPICTING MOST CONCENTRATED ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHERN PA...WITH
LIGHTER ACTIVITY NOTED FURTHER TO THE NORTH. WITH TIME THIS
EVENING...SHORTWAVE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION KEEPING THE BEST
FORCING FOR ASCENT SOUTH OF THE CWA. THAT SAID...MAIN CONCERN WITH
GOING FORECAST WILL BE INCREASING PROSPECTS FOR -FZDZ OVERNIGHT AS
AFOREMENTIONED WAVE INTERACTS WITH AN APPROACHING ELEVATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE SUBSTANTIAL DRYING ALOFT AS
WEAK UPPER RIDGING APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. AS THIS OCCURS...ICE
CRYSTAL GROWTH POTENTIAL WILL DECREASE WITH LOSS OF
SATURATION...THUS INTRODUCING THE POTENTIAL FOR -FZDZ ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AS MOISTURE REMAINS CONFINED IN THE LOWEST 10KFT.
WITH ONLY LIGHT QPF EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT...ANY -FZDZ THAT DEVELOPS WILL LIKELY BE PATCHY IN
NATURE AND HAVE DECIDED TO JUST ADVERTISE POTENTIAL IN THE HWO
PRODUCT FOR NOW. WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER ALOFT...OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BY WED...SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND ELEVATED FRONT WILL BE DEPARTING TO
OUR EAST AS WEAK UPPER RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST IN
ADVANCE OF A CENTRAL PLAINS TROUGH. DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN HOW
QUICKLY PRECIP WILL EXIT TO THE EAST WED MORNING...BUT MODEL
INDICATIONS SUGGEST IMPROVING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. HAVE MAINTAINED SLGT CHC MENTION ACROSS
THE EASTERN CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON HRS...WITH MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED WED NIGHT AREA WIDE AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OVER THE AREA. HIGH TEMPS WED SHOULD WARM INTO THE UPPER 30S
TO NEAR 40 ALONG AND WEST OF I-81...WITH COOLER VALUES EXPECTED TO
THE EAST.
AFOREMENTIONED PLAINS DISTURBANCE WILL THEN TAKE AIM AT THE REGION BY
EARLY THU MORNING. PER CURRENT MODEL TRENDS...DRY NEAR SURFACE
LAYER CONDITIONS WILL REQUIRE COLUMN SATURATION BEFORE PRECIP
MAKES ITS WAY TO THE GROUND...AND HAVE ELECTED TO DELAY THE
PRECIP ARRIVAL TIME BY A FEW HRS THU MORNING AS A RESULT. WHEN PRECIP
DOES ARRIVE AFTER 12Z...MAIN CONCERN WILL BE PRECIP TYPE. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING OFF TO OUR EAST COMBINED WITH AN APPROACHING WARM
FRONT SUGGEST WE MAY RECEIVE A BRIEF WINTRY MIX THU MORNING BEFORE
BULK OF ACTIVITY TRANSITIONS INTO RA AS REGION GETS ENTRENCHED IN
THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF MAIN COLD FRONT. CURRENT LOW TRACK TAKES LOW
FROM NEAR DETROIT NORTHEAST TO NORTH BAY, ON WHICH CERTAINLY IS
REMINISCENT OF ANY SIGNIFICANT MIXED PRECIP EVENTS. THAT
SAID...MAIN AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY WERE AGEOSTROPIC WIND CIRCULATIONS MAY KEEP COLD AIR
ENTRENCHED FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME. ALL TOLD...HAVE DECIDED TO
ENTER A WINTRY MIX MENTION IN THE MORNING...WITH WITH A GRADUAL
CHANGEOVER TO RA AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. WILL CERTAINLY HAVE TO
WATCH TRENDS IN THE COMING DAYS TO PIN DOWN THE DETAILS AS THE
EVENT NEARS.
BY THU NIGHT...MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE POST FRONTAL WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION SLOWLY WORKING INTO THE AREA. LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE FRI AS WESTERLY WINDS DOWN THE LENGTH OF THE
LAKE COMBINE WITH H85 TEMPS -11C. CURRENT BUFKIT PROFILES SUGGEST
BEST POTENTIAL FOR ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT WILL BE NORTH OF CWA IN
WELL ALIGNED 270-280 FLOW HOWEVER MEAGER INVERSION HEIGHTS
HOWEVER MAY BE A LIMITING FACTOR.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE
NORTHEAST ALONG WITH A WEAK SFC LOW MOVING THROUGH THE REGION ON
SATURDAY. THESE FEATURES WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC
POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK. SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS THERE COULD BE A MIX OF RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
NORTHEAST AS SFC HIGH PRES FROM CENTRAL CANADA DROPS SOUTH AND
RESIDES OVER THE AREA. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
PERIOD.
TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WEAK TROF OF LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING THOUGH THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION. LIGHT FOG AND VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE NORTH
OF THE TROF, INTO NY AND PA. THIS WILL BRING MAINLY MVFR
CONDITIONS TO THE REGION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
A PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS IS EXPECTED AT BGM BETWEEN 7Z AND 12Z,
WITH FORECAST CEILING HEIGHTS FLUCTUATING BETWEEN 700 AND 1200 FEET.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT LATER TODAY,
ALLOWING THE ATMOSPHERE TO DRY, AND CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE.
VISIBILITIES WILL BE QUICKEST TO REACH VFR TERRITORY BY LATE
MORNING. VFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TOWARD SUNSET.
.OUTLOOK...
WED NGT...VFR.
THUR...IFR/MVFR IN -SHRA AND PSBLY SOME MIXED PCPN AT ONSET.
FRI/SAT...MAINLY VFR.
SUN...VFR...PSBL MVFR/IFR PA WITH SNOW.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CMG
NEAR TERM...CMG/HEDEN
SHORT TERM...CMG
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...DJP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
735 AM MST WED FEB 15 2012
.UPDATE...
731 AM MST WED FEB 15 2012
UPDATED GRIDS AND ZONES FOR THE CANCELLATION OF THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY. RADAR RETURNS AND OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE LACK OF ANY
PRECIPITATION SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY.
FS
&&
.DISCUSSION...
326 AM MST WED FEB 15 2012
FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE WHAT KIND OF WEATHER TODAYS INCOMING SYSTEM
IS GOING TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA. SATELLITE SHOWING A BROAD STRONG
UPPER TROUGH OVER MOST OF THE PACIFIC WHICH IS CAUSING A RIDGE TO
AMPLIFY ALONG THE WEST COAST. THEN OVER NORTH AMERICA THERE IS A
CHAOTIC SPLIT FLOW WITH NUMEROUS SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THIS FLOW.
SYSTEM TO AFFECT US TODAY IS MOVING ACROSS NEW MEXICO WITH A
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTH CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY.
ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING SOUTH FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
AT JET LEVEL THE MODELS LOOKED FINE. MID LEVEL FLOW IS VERY CHAOTIC
AND UNORGANIZED WITH A LOT OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTERACTION.
INITIALLY AT 00Z...THE NAM FOLLOWED BY THE UKMET...GFS...AND
CANADIAN WERE GETTING OUR SOUTHERN CIRCULATION THE BEST BASED ON
SATELLITE AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS. BY 06Z THE SYSTEM LOOKS TO HAVE
SEPARATED INTO TWO DIFFERENT CIRCULATION. AT THIS TIME THE RUC
FOLLOWED BY THE CANADIAN AND UKMET WAS CATCHING THE SYSTEM THE BEST
OVER NEW MEXICO. FOR THE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL
PORTION OF THE COUNTRY...WHICH WILL AFFECT HOW THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM
KICKS OUT...THE CANADIAN AND UKMET WERE DOING THE BEST THERE.
AT THE SURFACE THE ECMWF IS CATCHING THE POSITION OF THE INCOMING
FRONT BEST PLUS HAS THE BEST HANDLE ON THE SURFACE LOW POSITION TO
OUR SOUTH. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN ARE THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL AND
MOISTURE PROFILE THE BEST.
TODAY/TONIGHT...VERY TRICKY FORECAST FOR TODAY. MODELS HAVING
TROUBLE IN DIFFERENT ASPECTS. OVERALL LIKE THE RUC...CANADIAN AND
UKMET DEPICTION OF THE POSITION OF THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION ALONG
WITH THE QPF...SNOWFALL...AND WEATHER THEY ARE DEPICTING. CURRENTLY
SATELLITE AND PLAN PROFILER WINDS SHOW THAT 700 MB TROUGHLINE IS
WORKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA AND ROUGHLY DIVIDES MY AREA INTO A
NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST HALF. CURRENTLY IR SATELLITE AND MOSAIC
RADAR HAVE THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS AND RETURNS OVER THE SOUTHEAST
HALF AHEAD OF THE TROUGHLINE.
MODELS HAVE TENDED TO TAKE THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION A LITTLE
FURTHER SOUTH THAN YESTERDAY WITH MOST IN THE SAME GENERAL AREA BUT
BASED ON SATELLITE AND REASONING GIVEN ABOVE THE RUC...CANADIAN AND
UKMET TENDED TO HAVE IT FURTHER SOUTH. SO BELIEVE THE SOUTHEAST
HALF OF THE AREA WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.
HOWEVER AM CONCERNED WITH THE TROUGHLINE ALREADY WORKING ITS WAY
ACROSS THE AREA AND THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVING IN
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE FORECAST ALREADY. IF RUC IS CORRECT
LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR. BUT NOT CONFIDENT TO TOTALLY
ELIMINATE THAT.
NEXT QUESTION WILL BE THE PHASE. SURFACE/850 MB DEWPOINTS AND
TEMPERATURES START OUT ABOVE FREEZING IN THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF
THE AREA ACCORDING TO THE MODELS AND MATCH WELL WITH REALITY AT
THIS TIME. THE COLD AIR DOES NOT REALLY ARRIVE IN ERNEST LATE BY
LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THE WINDOW FOR FREEZING
PRECIPITATION HAS NARROWED. FELT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO TRIM OFF THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. HOWEVER...IT LOOKS
CLOSE ENOUGH IN THE SOUTHEAST THIRD REMAINS HIGH ENOUGH BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH. SO LOWERED ICE AMOUNTS IN THE ADVISORY
AREA. ALSO BASED ON SOUNDINGS AND REALITY ADDED FREEZING FOG THIS
MORNING. SHOULD BE ALL SNOW THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE SOUTHEAST MAYBE
SEEING UP TO AN INCH BASED ON WHERE THE CIRCULATION APPEARS TO BE.
QPF AND SNOW AMOUNTS ACTUALLY MAKE SENSE WITH WHERE THE LIFT IS
GOING TO BE. WHATEVER FALLS SHOULD BE DONE BY 00Z. TEMPERATURES ARE
INTERESTING FOR TODAY. WOULD BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME SUN THIS
AFTERNOON. RAISED MAXES A LITTLE BUT THAT STILL MAY NOT BE ENOUGH.
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...LOOKS TO BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUN.
HOWEVER...SURFACE RIDGE IS NOT THAT FAR AWAY AND THE DOWNSLOPE
COMPONENT TO THE WIND IS NOT THAT STRONG. SO SIDED WITH THE
SLIGHTLY COOLER GUIDANCE. GET SOME DOWNSLOPE WARMING AND WINDS
DURING THE NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF NEXT SURFACE TROUGH/FRONT THAT WILL
MOVE THROUGH.
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE FORCES A FRONT
THROUGH EARLY IN THE DAY. BASED ON COLD AIR ADVECTION/UNFAVORABLE
WIND DIRECTION...DID TEND TOWARD THE COOLER TWO METER. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS DURING THE NIGHT SHOULD ALLOW THE TEMPERATURES TO
FALL BELOW GUIDANCE.
BULLER
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGE SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS DRY
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS ON
SATURDAY...AND ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY. DEGREE OF WARM UP SUNDAY IS STILL
IN QUESTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY REGARDING EVOLUTION OF TROUGH EXPECTED
TO ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT.
GUIDANCE COMING INTO GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF NEGATIVELY TILTED
TROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH SHOULD BRING GOOD PRECIP CHANCES TO THE
CWA SUNDAY NIGHT AND LINGERING CHANCES IN THE EASTERN CWA INTO
MONDAY. WHILE GUIDANCE IS IS GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING...THERE
ARE STILL SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM.
THE GFS IS MUCH STRONGER AND FARTHER NORTH WITH A CLOSED H5/H7
CIRCULATION ALMOST RIGHT ON TOP OF THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST
GEM/ECMWF BOTH SUPPORT MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE SOLUTION OVER THE
CWA...WITH A WEAKER CLOSED CIRCULATION OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS. THIS
AFFECTS HOW FAR NORTH A POTENTIAL DRY SLOT SETS UP...AS WELL AS HOW
MUCH COLD AIR IS IN PLACE OVER THE CWA FOR RAIN/SNOW CHANGEOVER. THE
STRONGER GFS SOLUTION WOULD ALSO ALLOW FOR MUCH HIGHER QPF AND
POTENTIAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 70. FOR NOW I HAVE BUMPED POPS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70
WHERE BEST OVERLAP BETWEEN GUIDANCE IS ON MEASURABLE PRECIP. QPF
AND POTENTIAL SNOW AMOUNTS ARE TOO DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN AT THIS
POINT...WITH A FAIRLY LARGE SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA DEPENDING ON MODEL
OF CHOICE. THIS SYSTEM IS WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON THOUGH.
DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE TEMPS SHOULD BE FAVORED ON MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE CWA IN THE
WAKE OF THE EXITING TROUGH...ASSUMING THERE ARE NO COMPLICATIONS
FROM SNOW PACK.
DR
THANKS TO ALL WHO COLLABORATED.
&&
.AVIATION...
400 AM MST WED FEB 15 2012
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...AN AREA OF LOW STRATUS AROUND 700 FT AGL THAT HAS
DEVELOPED OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH THIS
MORNING TOWARDS BOTH TERMINALS. BASED ON SATELLITE TRENDS AND LATEST
HIGH RES SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS STATUS DECK
SHOULD FIRST ARRIVE AT KMCK AROUND 1430Z AND THEN AT KGLD AFTER 15Z.
GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS STRATUS ERODING BY 18Z AS MIXING INCREASES. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINING TAF PERIOD AT
BOTH SITES. GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT BOTH TERMINALS
DURING THE DAY...DECREASING AROUND 00Z.
DR
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
528 AM CST WED FEB 15 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 527 AM CST WED FEB 15 2012
NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST WED FEB 15 2012
TODAY`S FORECAST CHALLENGES CENTER AROUND POPS, WEATHER TYPES, AND
TIMING.
THE SHORT TERM MODELS, NAMELY THE HRRR AND THE NAM MODELS, DELAY
THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION IN OUR WEST AND SOUTH, BRINGING ONLY A
LITTLE RAIN/SNOW MIX TO OUR NORTHEAST COUNTIES AROUND 10Z THIS
MORNING. THEN AS A COLD FRONT RUSHES SOUTHWARD INTO OUR NORTHWEST
CWA TOWARD 18Z. THE NAM MODEL IS SIMILAR TO THE HRRR IN BRINGING
SNOW TO AN AREA NORTHWEST OF A ELKHART TO SCOTT CITY TO WAKEENEY
LINE BY 18Z, THE FARTHER EAST BY 00Z. THE EC AND GFS MODELS ARE A
LITTLE EARLIER AND MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE NAM MODEL, SO HAVE
DELAYED THE START OF PRECIP IN OUR CENTRAL ZONES UNTIL AFTER 18Z.
ALSO, LOWERED SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE SUBLETTE, DODGE CITY TO LARNED
AREAS, THINKING THERE WILL BE ENOUGH RAIN FIRST BEFORE ANY SNOW
STARTS THIS AFTERNOON TO LIMIT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. IN THE SCOTT
CITY, DIGHTON AND LAKIN AREAS, UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE
BY TONIGHT. THE FRONT MENTIONED ABOVE WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS
BOUNDARY FOR ENHANCED LIFT. THERE IS A DEFORMATION ZONE SHOWN
JUST NORTHWEST OF OUR CWA AT 18 TO 00Z BY THE ECMWF AND THE GFS
MODELS. TEMPERATURES WON`T WARM TOO MUCH TODAY, ONLY RISING TO THE
MID 30S IN OUR NORTH AND NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES, TO NEAR 40F
DEGREES FROM LARNED TO DODGE CITY TO JOHNSON CITY. OUR EXTREME
SOUTHEAST COULD RISE TO THE UPPER 40S, BEFORE THE COLD FRONT
REACHES THERE THIS EVENING.
THERE IS AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING EAST ACROSS THE
KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER. AS IT MOVES TO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY
TONIGHT, AN AREA OF WRAP AROUND COLD AIR AND MOISTURE WILL KEEP
CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW GOING IN THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST. DO NOT SEE
MUCH SNOW ACCUMULATION OUT OF THIS SITUATION, AS SUBSTANTIAL MID
AND UPPER LEVEL LIFT WILL BE TO OUR EAST. LOWERED POPS TO BELOW
SLIGHT CHANCES BY 04Z, THINKING WE WILL BE WELL TO THE WEST OF ANY
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL TO THE 17F
TO 19F DEGREE RANGE IN OUR NORTHWEST, WHERE THERE SHOULD BE A
FRESH SNOW COVER OF AROUND 1 INCH. MID 20S WILL RESULT FROM LARNED
TO DODGE CITY TO LIBERAL, WITH UPPER 20S FORECAST IN OUR
SOUTHEASTERN CWA.
I EXPECT A MOSTLY SUNNY THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FROM THE NORTH. SURFACE WINDS MAY START OUT FROM THE NORTH AT 10
TO 15 MPH, BUT SHOULD SHIFT TO THE SOUTH BY NOON AND ALLOW WARM
ADVECTION TO HELP WARM MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TO NEAR 50F DEGREES
ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER, THE MID 40S ACROSS OUR CENTRAL CWA, AND THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S IN OUR NORTHWEST WHERE A LITTLE SNOW MAY REMAIN.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST WED FEB 15 2012
PLEASANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECASTED THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE FROM THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST AND
THE SURFACE WILL GENERALLY BE DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHEN A WEAK COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA INCREASING CLOUDS AND SHIFTING WINDS TO A
NORTHERLY DIRECTION ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE
PUSHED ACROSS THE AREA WITH HELP FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. NO PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME BUT IF
FUTURE MODEL RUNS MOVE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW FURTHER NORTH THERE COULD
INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO ROWS OF
COUNTIES IN KANSAS. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S
ON FRIDAY THEN THE MID TO UPPER 40S ON SATURDAY. LOWS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNING.
MODELS ARE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT BRINGING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SATURDAY, INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND
CENTRAL ROCKIES SUNDAY, AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON MONDAY. THIS
IN TURN WILL DEVELOP SURFACE LEE TROUGHING ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO
AND SHIFT WINDS TO MORE OF A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. WINDY CONDITIONS COULD BE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY
AS THE LEE TROUGHING AND ATMOSPHERIC MIXING INCREASES ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE
SYSTEM APPROACHES WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED ON MONDAY.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL ALSO INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY,
MAINLY ACROSS NORTH AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. PRECIPITATION TYPE IS
STILL UNKNOWN BUT SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN DURING THE DAY AS
HIGHS WILL BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING. EXTENDED MODELS THEN HAVE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED. HIGHS ARE FORECASTED TO BE IN
THE LOWER TO MID 50S SUNDAY, RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID
30S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 505 AM CST WED FEB 15 2012
THE TAFS THIS MORNING WILL START WITH IFR CIGS, AND IN THE DDC AND
HYS CASES, ALSO WITH IFR VSBYS IN DENSE FOG. THE FOG SHOULD LIFT
AND VSBYS IMPROVE BY 15Z, WHEN SOME MIXING WILL OCCUR DOWN FROM
THE 850MB LEVEL. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTH AND CHANGE SOUTH
SURFACE WINDS TO THE NORTH AT 15G25KT KNOT RANGE. LOW STATUS WILL
LIKELY HANG AROUND THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY, WITH LIGHT RAIN OR
SNOW MOVING IN AFTER 18Z. THE PRECIP SHOULD END AROUND 02Z, WITH
WINDS SUBSIDING TO NORTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH. CIGS WILL BREAK OUT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THIS EVENING, RETURNING AVIATION
CATEGORIES TO VFR BY 01 TO 03Z.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 39 25 47 27 / 50 20 0 0
GCK 39 20 47 25 / 60 10 0 0
EHA 43 23 49 28 / 30 0 0 0
LBL 45 24 48 26 / 30 10 0 0
HYS 37 20 45 27 / 70 30 0 0
P28 47 28 49 28 / 40 20 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR KSZ030-031-
043>046-062>066-075>081-085>090.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BURKE
SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM....HOVORKA
AVIATION...BURKE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
506 AM CST WED FEB 15 2012
.UPDATE... FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 505 AM CST WED FEB 15 2012
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST WED FEB 15 2012
TODAY`S FORECAST CHALLENGES CENTER AROUND POPS, WEATHER TYPES, AND
TIMING.
THE SHORT TERM MODELS, NAMELY THE HRRR AND THE NAM MODELS, DELAY
THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION IN OUR WEST AND SOUTH, BRINGING ONLY A
LITTLE RAIN/SNOW MIX TO OUR NORTHEAST COUNTIES AROUND 10Z THIS
MORNING. THEN AS A COLD FRONT RUSHES SOUTHWARD INTO OUR NORTHWEST
CWA TOWARD 18Z. THE NAM MODEL IS SIMILAR TO THE HRRR IN BRINGING
SNOW TO AN AREA NORTHWEST OF A ELKHART TO SCOTT CITY TO WAKEENEY
LINE BY 18Z, THE FARTHER EAST BY 00Z. THE EC AND GFS MODELS ARE A
LITTLE EARLIER AND MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE NAM MODEL, SO HAVE
DELAYED THE START OF PRECIP IN OUR CENTRAL ZONES UNTIL AFTER 18Z.
ALSO, LOWERED SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE SUBLETTE, DODGE CITY TO LARNED
AREAS, THINKING THERE WILL BE ENOUGH RAIN FIRST BEFORE ANY SNOW
STARTS THIS AFTERNOON TO LIMIT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. IN THE SCOTT
CITY, DIGHTON AND LAKIN AREAS, UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE
BY TONIGHT. THE FRONT MENTIONED ABOVE WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS
BOUNDARY FOR ENHANCED LIFT. THERE IS A DEFORMATION ZONE SHOWN
JUST NORTHWEST OF OUR CWA AT 18 TO 00Z BY THE ECMWF AND THE GFS
MODELS. TEMPERATURES WON`T WARM TOO MUCH TODAY, ONLY RISING TO THE
MID 30S IN OUR NORTH AND NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES, TO NEAR 40F
DEGREES FROM LARNED TO DODGE CITY TO JOHNSON CITY. OUR EXTREME
SOUTHEAST COULD RISE TO THE UPPER 40S, BEFORE THE COLD FRONT
REACHES THERE THIS EVENING.
THERE IS AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING EAST ACROSS THE
KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER. AS IT MOVES TO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY
TONIGHT, AN AREA OF WRAP AROUND COLD AIR AND MOISTURE WILL KEEP
CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW GOING IN THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST. DO NOT SEE
MUCH SNOW ACCUMULATION OUT OF THIS SITUATION, AS SUBSTANTIAL MID
AND UPPER LEVEL LIFT WILL BE TO OUR EAST. LOWERED POPS TO BELOW
SLIGHT CHANCES BY 04Z, THINKING WE WILL BE WELL TO THE WEST OF ANY
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL TO THE 17F
TO 19F DEGREE RANGE IN OUR NORTHWEST, WHERE THERE SHOULD BE A
FRESH SNOW COVER OF AROUND 1 INCH. MID 20S WILL RESULT FROM LARNED
TO DODGE CITY TO LIBERAL, WITH UPPER 20S FORECAST IN OUR
SOUTHEASTERN CWA.
I EXPECT A MOSTLY SUNNY THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FROM THE NORTH. SURFACE WINDS MAY START OUT FROM THE NORTH AT 10
TO 15 MPH, BUT SHOULD SHIFT TO THE SOUTH BY NOON AND ALLOW WARM
ADVECTION TO HELP WARM MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TO NEAR 50F DEGREES
ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER, THE MID 40S ACROSS OUR CENTRAL CWA, AND THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S IN OUR NORTHWEST WHERE A LITTLE SNOW MAY REMAIN.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST WED FEB 15 2012
PLEASANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECASTED THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE FROM THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST AND
THE SURFACE WILL GENERALLY BE DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHEN A WEAK COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA INCREASING CLOUDS AND SHIFTING WINDS TO A
NORTHERLY DIRECTION ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE
PUSHED ACROSS THE AREA WITH HELP FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. NO PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME BUT IF
FUTURE MODEL RUNS MOVE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW FURTHER NORTH THERE COULD
INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO ROWS OF
COUNTIES IN KANSAS. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S
ON FRIDAY THEN THE MID TO UPPER 40S ON SATURDAY. LOWS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNING.
MODELS ARE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT BRINGING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SATURDAY, INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND
CENTRAL ROCKIES SUNDAY, AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON MONDAY. THIS
IN TURN WILL DEVELOP SURFACE LEE TROUGHING ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO
AND SHIFT WINDS TO MORE OF A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. WINDY CONDITIONS COULD BE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY
AS THE LEE TROUGHING AND ATMOSPHERIC MIXING INCREASES ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE
SYSTEM APPROACHES WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED ON MONDAY.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL ALSO INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY,
MAINLY ACROSS NORTH AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. PRECIPITATION TYPE IS
STILL UNKNOWN BUT SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN DURING THE DAY AS
HIGHS WILL BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING. EXTENDED MODELS THEN HAVE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED. HIGHS ARE FORECASTED TO BE IN
THE LOWER TO MID 50S SUNDAY, RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID
30S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 505 AM CST WED FEB 15 2012
THE TAFS THIS MORNING WILL START WITH IFR CIGS, AND IN THE DDC AND
HYS CASES, ALSO WITH IFR VSBYS IN DENSE FOG. THE FOG SHOULD LIFT
AND VSBYS IMPROVE BY 15Z, WHEN SOME MIXING WILL OCCUR DOWN FROM
THE 850MB LEVEL. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTH AND CHANGE SOUTH
SURFACE WINDS TO THE NORTH AT 15G25KT KNOT RANGE. LOW STATUS WILL
LIKELY HANG AROUND THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY, WITH LIGHT RAIN OR
SNOW MOVING IN AFTER 18Z. THE PRECIP SHOULD END AROUND 02Z, WITH
WINDS SUBSIDING TO NORTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH. CIGS WILL BREAK OUT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THIS EVENING, RETURNING AVIATION
CATEGORIES TO VFR BY 01 TO 03Z.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 39 25 47 27 / 50 20 0 0
GCK 39 20 47 25 / 60 10 0 0
EHA 43 23 49 28 / 30 0 0 0
LBL 45 24 48 26 / 30 10 0 0
HYS 37 20 45 27 / 70 30 0 0
P28 47 28 49 28 / 40 20 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR KSZ030-031-
043>046-062>066-075>081-085>090.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BURKE
SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM....HOVORKA
AVIATION...BURKE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
400 AM MST WED FEB 15 2012
.DISCUSSION...
326 AM MST WED FEB 15 2012
FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE WHAT KIND OF WEATHER TODAYS INCOMING SYSTEM
IS GOING TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA. SATELLITE SHOWING A BROAD STRONG
UPPER TROUGH OVER MOST OF THE PACIFIC WHICH IS CAUSING A RIDGE TO
AMPLIFY ALONG THE WEST COAST. THEN OVER NORTH AMERICA THERE IS A
CHAOTIC SPLIT FLOW WITH NUMEROUS SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THIS FLOW.
SYSTEM TO AFFECT US TODAY IS MOVING ACROSS NEW MEXICO WITH A
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTH CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY.
ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING SOUTH FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
AT JET LEVEL THE MODELS LOOKED FINE. MID LEVEL FLOW IS VERY CHAOTIC
AND UNORGANIZED WITH A LOT OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTERACTION.
INITIALLY AT 00Z...THE NAM FOLLOWED BY THE UKMET...GFS...AND
CANADIAN WERE GETTING OUR SOUTHERN CIRCULATION THE BEST BASED ON
SATELLITE AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS. BY 06Z THE SYSTEM LOOKS TO HAVE
SEPARATED INTO TWO DIFFERENT CIRCULATION. AT THIS TIME THE RUC
FOLLOWED BY THE CANADIAN AND UKMET WAS CATCHING THE SYSTEM THE BEST
OVER NEW MEXICO. FOR THE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL
PORTION OF THE COUNTRY...WHICH WILL AFFECT HOW THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM
KICKS OUT...THE CANADIAN AND UKMET WERE DOING THE BEST THERE.
AT THE SURFACE THE ECMWF IS CATCHING THE POSITION OF THE INCOMING
FRONT BEST PLUS HAS THE BEST HANDLE ON THE SURFACE LOW POSITION TO
OUR SOUTH. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN ARE THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL AND
MOISTURE PROFILE THE BEST.
TODAY/TONIGHT...VERY TRICKY FORECAST FOR TODAY. MODELS HAVING
TROUBLE IN DIFFERENT ASPECTS. OVERALL LIKE THE RUC...CANADIAN AND
UKMET DEPICTION OF THE POSITION OF THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION ALONG
WITH THE QPF...SNOWFALL...AND WEATHER THEY ARE DEPICTING. CURRENTLY
SATELLITE AND PLAN PROFILER WINDS SHOW THAT 700 MB TROUGHLINE IS
WORKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA AND ROUGHLY DIVIDES MY AREA INTO A
NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST HALF. CURRENTLY IR SATELLITE AND MOSAIC
RADAR HAVE THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS AND RETURNS OVER THE SOUTHEAST
HALF AHEAD OF THE TROUGHLINE.
MODELS HAVE TENDED TO TAKE THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION A LITTLE
FURTHER SOUTH THAN YESTERDAY WITH MOST IN THE SAME GENERAL AREA BUT
BASED ON SATELLITE AND REASONING GIVEN ABOVE THE RUC...CANADIAN AND
UKMET TENDED TO HAVE IT FURTHER SOUTH. SO BELIEVE THE SOUTHEAST
HALF OF THE AREA WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.
HOWEVER AM CONCERNED WITH THE TROUGHLINE ALREADY WORKING ITS WAY
ACROSS THE AREA AND THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVING IN
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE FORECAST ALREADY. IF RUC IS CORRECT
LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR. BUT NOT CONFIDENT TO TOTALLY
ELIMINATE THAT.
NEXT QUESTION WILL BE THE PHASE. SURFACE/850 MB DEWPOINTS AND
TEMPERATURES START OUT ABOVE FREEZING IN THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF
THE AREA ACCORDING TO THE MODELS AND MATCH WELL WITH REALITY AT
THIS TIME. THE COLD AIR DOES NOT REALLY ARRIVE IN ERNEST LATE BY
LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THE WINDOW FOR FREEZING
PRECIPITATION HAS NARROWED. FELT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO TRIM OFF THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. HOWEVER...IT LOOKS
CLOSE ENOUGH IN THE SOUTHEAST THIRD REMAINS HIGH ENOUGH BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH. SO LOWERED ICE AMOUNTS IN THE ADVISORY
AREA. ALSO BASED ON SOUNDINGS AND REALITY ADDED FREEZING FOG THIS
MORNING. SHOULD BE ALL SNOW THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE SOUTHEAST MAYBE
SEEING UP TO AN INCH BASED ON WHERE THE CIRCULATION APPEARS TO BE.
QPF AND SNOW AMOUNTS ACTUALLY MAKE SENSE WITH WHERE THE LIFT IS
GOING TO BE. WHATEVER FALLS SHOULD BE DONE BY 00Z. TEMPERATURES ARE
INTERESTING FOR TODAY. WOULD BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME SUN THIS
AFTERNOON. RAISED MAXES A LITTLE BUT THAT STILL MAY NOT BE ENOUGH.
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...LOOKS TO BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUN.
HOWEVER...SURFACE RIDGE IS NOT THAT FAR AWAY AND THE DOWNSLOPE
COMPONENT TO THE WIND IS NOT THAT STRONG. SO SIDED WITH THE
SLIGHTLY COOLER GUIDANCE. GET SOME DOWNSLOPE WARMING AND WINDS
DURING THE NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF NEXT SURFACE TROUGH/FRONT THAT WILL
MOVE THROUGH.
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE FORCES A FRONT
THROUGH EARLY IN THE DAY. BASED ON COLD AIR ADVECTION/UNFAVORABLE
WIND DIRECTION...DID TEND TOWARD THE COOLER TWO METER. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS DURING THE NIGHT SHOULD ALLOW THE TEMPERATURES TO
FALL BELOW GUIDANCE.
BULLER
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGE SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS DRY
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS ON
SATURDAY...AND ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY. DEGREE OF WARM UP SUNDAY IS STILL
IN QUESTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY REGARDING EVOLUTION OF TROUGH EXPECTED
TO ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT.
GUIDANCE COMING INTO GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF NEGATIVELY TILTED
TROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH SHOULD BRING GOOD PRECIP CHANCES TO THE
CWA SUNDAY NIGHT AND LINGERING CHANCES IN THE EASTERN CWA INTO
MONDAY. WHILE GUIDANCE IS IS GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING...THERE
ARE STILL SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM.
THE GFS IS MUCH STRONGER AND FARTHER NORTH WITH A CLOSED H5/H7
CIRCULATION ALMOST RIGHT ON TOP OF THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST
GEM/ECMWF BOTH SUPPORT MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE SOLUTION OVER THE
CWA...WITH A WEAKER CLOSED CIRCULATION OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS. THIS
AFFECTS HOW FAR NORTH A POTENTIAL DRY SLOT SETS UP...AS WELL AS HOW
MUCH COLD AIR IS IN PLACE OVER THE CWA FOR RAIN/SNOW CHANGEOVER. THE
STRONGER GFS SOLUTION WOULD ALSO ALLOW FOR MUCH HIGHER QPF AND
POTENTIAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 70. FOR NOW I HAVE BUMPED POPS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70
WHERE BEST OVERLAP BETWEEN GUIDANCE IS ON MEASURABLE PRECIP. QPF
AND POTENTIAL SNOW AMOUNTS ARE TOO DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN AT THIS
POINT...WITH A FAIRLY LARGE SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA DEPENDING ON MODEL
OF CHOICE. THIS SYSTEM IS WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON THOUGH.
DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE TEMPS SHOULD BE FAVORED ON MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE CWA IN THE
WAKE OF THE EXITING TROUGH...ASSUMING THERE ARE NO COMPLICATIONS
FROM SNOW PACK.
DR
THANKS TO ALL WHO COLLABORATED.
&&
.AVIATION...
400 AM MST WED FEB 15 2012
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...AN AREA OF LOW STRATUS AROUND 700 FT AGL THAT HAS
DEVELOPED OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH THIS
MORNING TOWARDS BOTH TERMINALS. BASED ON SATELLITE TRENDS AND LATEST
HIGH RES SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS STATUS DECK
SHOULD FIRST ARRIVE AT KMCK AROUND 1430Z AND THEN AT KGLD AFTER 15Z.
GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS STRATUS ERODING BY 18Z AS MIXING INCREASES. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINING TAF PERIOD AT
BOTH SITES. GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT BOTH TERMINALS
DURING THE DAY...DECREASING AROUND 00Z.
DR
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ THIS
AFTERNOON FOR KSZ004-015-016-028-029-041-042.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
326 AM MST WED FEB 15 2012
.DISCUSSION...
326 AM MST WED FEB 15 2012
FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE WHAT KIND OF WEATHER TODAYS INCOMING SYSTEM
IS GOING TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA. SATELLITE SHOWING A BROAD STRONG
UPPER TROUGH OVER MOST OF THE PACIFIC WHICH IS CAUSING A RIDGE TO
AMPLIFY ALONG THE WEST COAST. THEN OVER NORTH AMERICA THERE IS A
CHAOTIC SPLIT FLOW WITH NUMEROUS SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THIS FLOW.
SYSTEM TO AFFECT US TODAY IS MOVING ACROSS NEW MEXICO WITH A
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTH CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY.
ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING SOUTH FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
AT JET LEVEL THE MODELS LOOKED FINE. MID LEVEL FLOW IS VERY CHAOTIC
AND UNORGANIZED WITH A LOT OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTERACTION.
INITIALLY AT 00Z...THE NAM FOLLOWED BY THE UKMET...GFS...AND
CANADIAN WERE GETTING OUR SOUTHERN CIRCULATION THE BEST BASED ON
SATELLITE AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS. BY 06Z THE SYSTEM LOOKS TO HAVE
SEPARATED INTO TWO DIFFERENT CIRCULATION. AT THIS TIME THE RUC
FOLLOWED BY THE CANADIAN AND UKMET WAS CATCHING THE SYSTEM THE BEST
OVER NEW MEXICO. FOR THE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL
PORTION OF THE COUNTRY...WHICH WILL AFFECT HOW THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM
KICKS OUT...THE CANADIAN AND UKMET WERE DOING THE BEST THERE.
AT THE SURFACE THE ECMWF IS CATCHING THE POSITION OF THE INCOMING
FRONT BEST PLUS HAS THE BEST HANDLE ON THE SURFACE LOW POSITION TO
OUR SOUTH. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN ARE THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL AND
MOISTURE PROFILE THE BEST.
TODAY/TONIGHT...VERY TRICKY FORECAST FOR TODAY. MODELS HAVING
TROUBLE IN DIFFERENT ASPECTS. OVERALL LIKE THE RUC...CANADIAN AND
UKMET DEPICTION OF THE POSITION OF THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION ALONG
WITH THE QPF...SNOWFALL...AND WEATHER THEY ARE DEPICTING. CURRENTLY
SATELLITE AND PLAN PROFILER WINDS SHOW THAT 700 MB TROUGHLINE IS
WORKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA AND ROUGHLY DIVIDES MY AREA INTO A
NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST HALF. CURRENTLY IR SATELLITE AND MOSAIC
RADAR HAVE THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS AND RETURNS OVER THE SOUTHEAST
HALF AHEAD OF THE TROUGHLINE.
MODELS HAVE TENDED TO TAKE THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION A LITTLE
FURTHER SOUTH THAN YESTERDAY WITH MOST IN THE SAME GENERAL AREA BUT
BASED ON SATELLITE AND REASONING GIVEN ABOVE THE RUC...CANADIAN AND
UKMET TENDED TO HAVE IT FURTHER SOUTH. SO BELIEVE THE SOUTHEAST
HALF OF THE AREA WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.
HOWEVER AM CONCERNED WITH THE TROUGHLINE ALREADY WORKING ITS WAY
ACROSS THE AREA AND THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVING IN
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE FORECAST ALREADY. IF RUC IS CORRECT
LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR. BUT NOT CONFIDENT TO TOTALLY
ELIMINATE THAT.
NEXT QUESTION WILL BE THE PHASE. SURFACE/850 MB DEWPOINTS AND
TEMPERATURES START OUT ABOVE FREEZING IN THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF
THE AREA ACCORDING TO THE MODELS AND MATCH WELL WITH REALITY AT
THIS TIME. THE COLD AIR DOES NOT REALLY ARRIVE IN ERNEST LATE BY
LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THE WINDOW FOR FREEZING
PRECIPITATION HAS NARROWED. FELT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO TRIM OFF THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. HOWEVER...IT LOOKS
CLOSE ENOUGH IN THE SOUTHEAST THIRD REMAINS HIGH ENOUGH BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH. SO LOWERED ICE AMOUNTS IN THE ADVISORY
AREA. ALSO BASED ON SOUNDINGS AND REALITY ADDED FREEZING FOG THIS
MORNING. SHOULD BE ALL SNOW THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE SOUTHEAST MAYBE
SEEING UP TO AN INCH BASED ON WHERE THE CIRCULATION APPEARS TO BE.
QPF AND SNOW AMOUNTS ACTUALLY MAKE SENSE WITH WHERE THE LIFT IS
GOING TO BE. WHATEVER FALLS SHOULD BE DONE BY 00Z. TEMPERATURES ARE
INTERESTING FOR TODAY. WOULD BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME SUN THIS
AFTERNOON. RAISED MAXES A LITTLE BUT THAT STILL MAY NOT BE ENOUGH.
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...LOOKS TO BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUN.
HOWEVER...SURFACE RIDGE IS NOT THAT FAR AWAY AND THE DOWNSLOPE
COMPONENT TO THE WIND IS NOT THAT STRONG. SO SIDED WITH THE
SLIGHTLY COOLER GUIDANCE. GET SOME DOWNSLOPE WARMING AND WINDS
DURING THE NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF NEXT SURFACE TROUGH/FRONT THAT WILL
MOVE THROUGH.
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE FORCES A FRONT
THROUGH EARLY IN THE DAY. BASED ON COLD AIR ADVECTION/UNFAVORABLE
WIND DIRECTION...DID TEND TOWARD THE COOLER TWO METER. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS DURING THE NIGHT SHOULD ALLOW THE TEMPERATURES TO
FALL BELOW GUIDANCE.
BULLER
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGE SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS DRY
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS ON
SATURDAY...AND ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY. DEGREE OF WARM UP SUNDAY IS STILL
IN QUESTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY REGARDING EVOLUTION OF TROUGH EXPECTED
TO ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT.
GUIDANCE COMING INTO GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF NEGATIVELY TILTED
TROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH SHOULD BRING GOOD PRECIP CHANCES TO THE
CWA SUNDAY NIGHT AND LINGERING CHANCES IN THE EASTERN CWA INTO
MONDAY. WHILE GUIDANCE IS IS GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING...THERE
ARE STILL SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM.
THE GFS IS MUCH STRONGER AND FARTHER NORTH WITH A CLOSED H5/H7
CIRCULATION ALMOST RIGHT ON TOP OF THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST
GEM/ECMWF BOTH SUPPORT MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE SOLUTION OVER THE
CWA...WITH A WEAKER CLOSED CIRCULATION OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS. THIS
AFFECTS HOW FAR NORTH A POTENTIAL DRY SLOT SETS UP...AS WELL AS HOW
MUCH COLD AIR IS IN PLACE OVER THE CWA FOR RAIN/SNOW CHANGEOVER. THE
STRONGER GFS SOLUTION WOULD ALSO ALLOW FOR MUCH HIGHER QPF AND
POTENTIAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 70. FOR NOW I HAVE BUMPED POPS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70
WHERE BEST OVERLAP BETWEEN GUIDANCE IS ON MEASURABLE PRECIP. QPF
AND POTENTIAL SNOW AMOUNTS ARE TOO DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN AT THIS
POINT...WITH A FAIRLY LARGE SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA DEPENDING ON MODEL
OF CHOICE. THIS SYSTEM IS WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON THOUGH.
DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE TEMPS SHOULD BE FAVORED ON MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE CWA IN THE
WAKE OF THE EXITING TROUGH...ASSUMING THERE ARE NO COMPLICATIONS
FROM SNOW PACK.
DR
THANKS TO ALL WHO COLLABORATED.
&&
.AVIATION...
1030 PM MST TUE FEB 14 2012
FOR THE 06Z TAFS AT KGLD AND KMCK...FOR KGLD VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH 14Z WITH ONLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED. STRATUS
AND RESTRICTED VIS HAS MADE IT TO KOEL...WITH KGLD WINDS NOW FROM
THE NW SHOULD NOT SEE THESE RESTRICTIONS AT THE TERMINAL.
HOWEVER...MVFR CIGS STILL EXPECTED FROM 14Z-21Z GIVEN CURRENT
UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS. BY 21Z CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY DECREASE WITH VFR
CONDITIONS. NW WINDS GUSTING CLOSE TO 30KTS FROM 14Z-23Z.
PRECIPITATION WILL BE CLOSE TO THE TERMINAL BUT RIGHT NOW NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IT IN THE TAF. FOR KMCK VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TIL AT LEAST 08Z WHERE WE WILL NEED TO WATCH JUST HOW FAR
NORTH STRATUS AND RESTRICTED VIS GET TO TERMINAL. RIGHT NOW THINK IT
WILL REMAIN JUST OUTSIDE THE TERMINAL. VFR CONDITIONS STILL EXPECTED
THROUGH 16Z WHEN POST FRONTAL MVFR/IFR CIGS POSSIBLE THROUGH
21Z...QUICKLY BECOMING SKC SHORTLY THEREAFTER.
007
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ THIS
AFTERNOON FOR KSZ004-015-016-028-029-041-042.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
606 AM CST WED FEB 15 2012
.UPDATE...
12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION ADDED BELOW.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
RATHER COMPLICATED UPPER AIR PATTERN IN PLACE WITH SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWING MULTIPLE WEATHER DISTURBANCES AFFECTING THE AREA IN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE FIRST IS A VORT NOW WEAKENING AND SHEARING
OUT OF CENTRAL MN AS IT MOVES ACROSS N WI. ASSOCIATED -SN WILL BE
NORTH OF OUR AREA BY 12Z.
A PAIR OF UPSTREAM VORTS LURK AHEAD IN THE DKTS WITH ANOTHER DIVING
SE ACROSS SASK. THE MORE WELL DEFINED DKTS FEATURE IS IN W NODAK
NEAR DIK WITH ANOTHER MOVING ACROSS W SODAK. BOTH HAVE LIGHT MIXED
PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THEM. THE 06Z NAM HAS PRETTY GOOD PLACEMENT OF
BOTH OF THESE. SOME CONCERN FOR THE MORNING HOURS THAT THE SOUTHERN
FEATURE MAY CARRY SOME LIGHT MIXED PCPN INTO OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES...WHICH HRRR HAS BEEN ADVERTISING LAST FEW RUNS. PROGGED
SOUNDINGS SHOW TEMP PROFILE WARM ENUF FOR LIQUID AT LEAST AS FAR N
AS THE MVE AREA. IF PCPN HOLDS OFF UNTIL AROUND 15Z...SHUD BE MAINLY
--RA AND --SN...BUT IF IT MOVES IN PRIOR TO THAT HAVE RISK OF --ZR.
WITH LOWER LEVELS TAKING SOME TIME TO SATURATE...WON`T MENTION THE
ZR THREAT. DURING THE AFTN THE BETTER FORCING THEN FOCUSED MORE TO
OUR NORTH AS NODAK VORT LIFTS ACROSS N MN. CONFINED PCPN THEN TO
JUST A S/C -SN IN SOME CENTRAL MN COUNTIES. WEDGE OF CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ATTM WILL BE FILLING IN DURING THE MORNING
AS UPSTREAM SYSTEMS APPROACH AREA.
FOR TONIGHT...KEPT SMALL CHANCE OF --SN IN EASTERN AREAS...BUT FOCUS
OF ANY SIG PCPN WILL BE WELL TO OUR SOUTH AS SHORTWAVE NOW IN NEW
MEXICO LIFTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
A LITTLE COOLER ON THURSDAY ACROSS EASTERN AREAS AS NW WINDS BRING
IN A BIT OF COOLING BEHIND THE WEAK SURFACE TROF MOVING THRU TODAY.
IN THE WEST...WEST WINDS AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM ALREADY BEGIN TO PULL
WARMER AIR BACK IN. MILD THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SW WINDS AHEAD OF
SURFACE LOW DROPPING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO SW MN. NAM AN OUTLIER
WITH SYSTEM DROPPING ACROSS THE AREA MUCH FASTER AND SFC WINDS NW
ACROSS AREA BY 12Z FRIDAY. RETAINED CURRENT DRY FCST...BUT 00Z
ECMWF IS SQUIRTING OUT SOME LIGHT QPF MAINLY SW OF MN RIVER INTO SC
MN ON FRIDAY. A BIT COOLER ON SATURDAY BEHIND THIS SYSTEM. LOW
TEMPS SATURDAY MORNING WITH BE TRICKY WITH MODELS SHOWING A FAIRLY
WIDE RANGE IN POSITION OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RANGING FROM SE MN ON
NAM TO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS ON THE GFS.
JURY STILL OUT ON THE MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT SYSTEM. GFS HAS PROBABLY
BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT SHOWING POSSIBLE PCPN OF SIGNIFICANCE...BUT
00Z ECMWF IS BEGINNING TO TREND BACK TOWARD THE GFS. TRIMMED BACK ON
THE AREA OF MIXED PCPN WITH MODEL TRENDS NOW FAVORING SURFACE LOW
TRACK MORE ACROSS IOWA.
&&
.AVIATION.../12Z TAF ISSUANCE/
MESSY UPPER AIR CHART THIS MORNING...WITH SHORTWAVES CURRENTLY
OVER THE TX PANHANDLE...AND CENTRAL SODAK AND NODAK. PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SRN WAVE WILL STAY ACROSS IA/IL AND THE NRN
WAVE WILL RUN SNOW ALONG THE INTL BORDER. THE SODAK WAVE IS THE
WEAKEST OF THE THREE AND WILL BE IMPACTING THE THE MPX TERMINALS
WITH MAINLY LOW VFR CIGS. SATURATION LOOKS QUESTIONABLE...AND DO
NOT EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN SOME PASSING SPRINKLES WITH THIS
WAVE. ALTHOUGH A FEW FZRA REPORTS ARE SHOWING UP ACROSS ERN
SODAK...HI-RES REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS DRY THIS PRECIP UP AS IT
HEADS INTO MN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS TODAY INDICATING ANY PRECIP THAT
DOES FALL WOULD MOST LIKELY BE IN THE LIQUID FORM. LOOKING AT OBS
ACROSS SODAK...WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME MVFR CONDITIONS TODAY...BUT
LOOKS LIKE NOTHING MORE THAN A TEMPORARY BASIS AT THE
MOMENT...WITH MOST WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDS GOING ACROSS NRN MN.
SEEING GOOD DRYING ACROSS WRN SODAK BEHIND THIS WAVE...AND RH
PROFILES SUGGEST THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE OVER HERE TONIGHT. WILL
HAVE TO AGAIN WATCH FOR BR/HZ LATE TONIGHT ACROSS ERN MN/WRN
WI...WHERE DEWP DEPRESSIONS ARE AGAIN PROGGED TO BE LESS THAN 2
DEGS.
KMSP...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL MOST OF THIS PERIOD...ONLY
EXCEPTION BEING WHEN UPPER WAVE MOVES THROUGH AROUND 00Z. MAY SEE
A TEMPO MVFR CIG WITH SPRINKLES AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH...BUT NOTHING WORSE THAN THAT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS TO
REMAIN HIGH AGAIN TONIGHT...SO ANOTHER BOUGHT OF 4-6SM VSBYS LOOKS
LIKELY AS SKIES CLEAR OUT BEHIND THIS WAVE. WINDS TODAY LOOK TO BE
FAIRLY LIGHT /LESS THAN 5 KTS/ AND OUT OF THE SW
TODAY...TRANSITIONING TO WNW TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
THU...VFR
FRI...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE. NO PRECIP EXPECTED ATTM.
SAT-SUN...VFR.
MON-TUE...-SN POSSIBLE.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
BAP/MPG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
404 AM CST Wed Feb 15 2012
.DISCUSSION...
Isentropic assent has begun to spread northeast ahead of the
shortwave exiting the Four Corners region, as evident by the cloud
cover and storm development stretching from the crook of the Texas
panhandle through eastern Kansas and Missouri. Cyclogenesis ahead of
the shortwave is currently focused across southwest Kansas, though
the development of a warm front seems to be evident on surface
observations from north of Kansas City east into the vicinity of St.
Louis, thanks to the exiting surface high moisture return on its
backside.
For Today, as the associated surface cyclone shifts east through the
day, the warm front is expected to rotate into northern Missouri,
thus supporting above normal temperatures today for most locations
except extreme northwest Missouri, where the front is not likely to
reach. Fog issues that where expected to develop early this morning
as a result of warm air advection across the cold ground, have not
begun to surface yet. Cloud cover and modest boundary layer mixing in
advance of the approaching system looks to be keeping the fog issue at
bay for now. Have reoriented morning POPs to reflect current trends
in radar and models, which focuses rain across the southern half of
the forecast area this morning, south of the developing warm front,
spreading to the rest of the forecast region this afternoon as the
warm front pivots north. Limited instability may still result in
isolated thunderstorms through the day with the rain.
This evening, the potential for precipitation should fade through
the night as the upper level shortwave traverses Kansas and
Missouri, dragging a cold front with it. There looks to be some
potential on the very back side of the exiting precipitation shield
for temperatures to drop fast enough to make precipitation type
overnight a little iffy. Though, currently have held to the
observation that model sounding indicate the surface will be the
last layer of the atmosphere to fall below freezing tonight, and
that in most locations the precipitation is likely to shut off
before the thermal profile cools enough for precipitation
conversion. Therefore, have opted to include a limited area of sleet
in the far northwest corner of Missouri, where afternoon temperatures
wont get very warm, and the evening falling temperatures behind the
cold front will arrive first.
For Thursday and Friday, conditions will dry out, with above normal
temperatures as the surface high behind the cold front wont be
particularly cold.
However, by Saturday, model inconsistencies are evident once again
and the operational and ensemble models are showing some
disagreement on how to eject a cutoff low in the Desert Southwest.
At this time, the GFS has begun to trend to a more open wave
solution which brings the low out much faster and farther north than
in previous runs, phasing with a potent shortwave rotating through the
Great Lakes. As a result the GFS is advertising rain across central
Missouri early Saturday. Have chosen to ignore the GFS solution this
morning as it is the outlier, opting to keep the focus for our next
round of precipitation on the Sunday Night through Tuesday. In these
outer periods models continue to point at bits and peaces of a western
CONUS trough ejecting through the Central Plains, and by Sunday night
into Monday these ejecting energy packets should be able to tap into
returning Gulf moisture.
Cutter
&&
.AVIATION...
For the 06Z TAFs...Watching closely the area of IFR/LIFR ceilings and
visibilities that are expanding northward out of Oklahoma. All latest
guidance suggests this moisture may be slower to reach the KC/STJ
terminals than previously forecast, which makes sense with thick
mid/high clouds making it difficult to cool off the boundary layer
and achieve thick low level saturation. So for now, bumped back the
arrival of IFR/LIFR conditions to after 12Z. RUC and LAMP guidance
suggest conditions may not deteriorate until mid morning. Still
expect restrictions to both cigs and vsbys once this moisture arrives,
with cigs possibly well into LIFR. Areas of rain will overspread the
area through the afternoon, and while there could be some embedded
thunder, the threat for this is too low to include any prolonged
mention of thunder in the TAFs at this point. While there could be
occasional lifts into MVFR during the afternoon, IFR is expected to
be the general rule and this should continue after 00Z behind a cold
front. Showery precipitation behind this front may mix with snow at
times but any wintry precipitation should be light and brief.
Hawblitzel
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO EAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
647 AM CST WED FEB 15 2012
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR SHORT-LIVED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREEZING RAIN
NERN NEBRASKA AND DENSE FOG ADVISORY SWRN ZONES
&&
.DISCUSSION...
BAND OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN SPREADING ACROSS NERN ZONES ASSOCIATED
WITH UPPER TROUGH SWINGING THRU DAKOTAS/NRN NEBRASKA WAS CREATING
ICE COVERED ROADS/BLACK ICE ACCORDING TO NEDOR. ISSUED A SHORT-
LIVED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. IN ADDITION...LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH OVER EXISTING SNOW COVER WILL
PROBABLY ONLY INCREASE COVERAGE OF DENSEST FOG SWRN ZONES SO WENT
AHEAD AND ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY THAT AREA. AS FRONT
APPROACHES...BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHOULD TURN MORE N/NE HALTING
THE MOISTURE ADVECTION. ALSO MENTIONED A LITTLE FREEZING RAIN
POSSIBLE FAR S AS LIGHT RETURNS MOVE INTO FAR SE NEBR.
CHERMOK
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 518 AM CST WED FEB 15 2012/
AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KOMA AND KLNK. COMPLEX AVIATION SCENARIO
SHAPING UP FOR THE FIRST PART OF TODAY AT LEAST. IFR CONDITIONS IN
STRATUS/FOG WERE SPREADING INTO FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA SW OF KLNK AS
OF 15/11Z. IN ADDITION...PATCHY FOG WAS OBSERVED NORTHEAST OF THE
LOW CLOUDS BUT SOUTHEAST OF A MID CLOUD DECK THAT CONTAINED SCATTERED
LIGHT RAIN OR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN SHOWERS ADVANCING ACROSS
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. THIS LIGHT PRECIP SHOULD BE CONFINED TO KOFK
TAF EARLY THIS MORNING AND THE LOW CLOUD ADVANCE SHOULD MAKE IT TO
KLNK. WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS RELAXING AND POSSIBLY SHIFTING TO
NERLY...NEWD DEVELOPMENT/ADVECTION OF LOW CLOUDS INTO KOMA
QUESTIONABLE BUT SOME WERE INCLUDED IN 12Z TAF FORECAST. A FRONT
PUSHING THROUGH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WILL CROSS TAF SITES LATER TODAY
AND A PERIOD OF LOW CLOUDS IS POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT...ALTHOUGH
THEY COULD TEND TO MIX OUT WITH HEATING. OVERALL A CHANGEABLE
FORECAST WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF LOWER CIGS/VSBYS.
CHERMOK
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 AM CST WED FEB 15 2012/
DISCUSSION...
VARIABLE SKY COVER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AT 08Z WITH PATCHY
DENSE FOG REPORTED OVER EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA AT KAHQ AND AROUND
KOLU. CLOUDS ENCROACHING FROM THE WEST AND SOUTH AND SHOULD
OVERSPREAD THE AREA BY 12Z. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP STILL LOOKS
TO BE OVER SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA...GENERALLY SOUTH OF I80
AFTER 12Z. TIMING HOWEVER MAY BE A PROBLEM AS LATEST RUC FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW LIMITED MID LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH MID MORNING
ALONG THE KANSAS BORDER THERE. HAVE LIMITED CHANCE POPS IN THAT
AREA THROUGH THE MORNING IN LINE WITH BOTH THE GFS AND NAM. BASED
ON THIS START TIME SHOULD SEE MAINLY RAIN THIS MORNING. AREA OF
RAIN THEN SPREADS NORTH FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH CHANCE POPS TO JUST
SOUTH OF THE OMAHA AREA INTO LINCOLN AND SOUTHWEST CORNER OF IOWA.
A CHANCE OF MIXED RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN IN THE EVENING FOR FAR
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST CORNER OF IOWA BEFORE PRECIP
SLIDES EAST AND ENDS. NO HEADLINES ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
LOOKS DRY AFTER THAT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH MODELS DIFFER
IN TIMING OF CLIPPER AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THAT COMES ACROSS
THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH THE GFS STRONGER WITH ITS FEATURES THAN
THE NAM OR EURO.
UPPER RIDGING MOVES INTO THE REGION EARLY IN THE EXTENDED WITH
SOMEWHAT WARMER TEMPERATURES BUT FAIRLY STRONG WAVE FOLLOWS FAST
ON ITS HEELS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. GFS AGAIN STRONGER THAN THE
EURO WITH THIS SYSTEM SO LOW CONFIDENCE WITH TIMING AND TRACK.
TIMING ISSUES THEN CONTINUE BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
FOBERT
AVIATION... 06Z TAF FOR KOMA...KLNK AND KOFK.
FOG WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THE TAF SITES...AND PRIMARILY
AT KLNK/KOMA. MID CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED THE AREA WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOG TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP...ALREADY 5
MILES AT KLNK. DROPPED VISIBILITY TO 5 MILES WITH IFR CEILINGS
DEVELOPING... BUT BELIEVE CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY 15Z WITH
JUST SOME HAZE AFTER THAT. REGARDING PRECIPITATION...BELIEVE
PRECIP MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE KS/NE BORDER REGION...BUT HAVE DOUBTS
THAT IT WOULD MAKE IT AS FAR NORTH AS KLNK/KOMA. ALSO FORECAST A
WIND SHIFT...FROM GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE...TO NORTH
NORTHWEST...INITIALLY AT KOFK AT 16Z...THEN AT AT KLNK/KOMA BY
ABOUT 20Z.
DEWALD
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR NEZ043-044-
050-051-065-066-078-088>090-092.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR NEZ012-
016>018-030>032-042.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
518 AM CST WED FEB 15 2012
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KOMA AND KLNK. COMPLEX AVIATION SCENARIO
SHAPING UP FOR THE FIRST PART OF TODAY AT LEAST. IFR CONDITIONS IN
STRATUS/FOG WERE SPREADING INTO FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA SW OF KLNK AS
OF 15/11Z. IN ADDITION...PATCHY FOG WAS OBSERVED NORTHEAST OF THE
LOW CLOUDS BUT SOUTHEAST OF A MID CLOUD DECK THAT CONTAINED SCATTERED
LIGHT RAIN OR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN SHOWERS ADVANCING ACROSS
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. THIS LIGHT PRECIP SHOULD BE CONFINED TO KOFK
TAF EARLY THIS MORNING AND THE LOW CLOUD ADVANCE SHOULD MAKE IT TO
KLNK. WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS RELAXING AND POSSIBLY SHIFTING TO
NERLY...NEWD DEVELOPMENT/ADVECTION OF LOW CLOUDS INTO KOMA
QUESTIONABLE BUT SOME WERE INCLUDED IN 12Z TAF FORECAST. A FRONT
PUSHING THROUGH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WILL CROSS TAF SITES LATER TODAY
AND A PERIOD OF LOW CLOUDS IS POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT...ALTHOUGH
THEY COULD TEND TO MIX OUT WITH HEATING. OVERALL A CHANGEABLE
FORECAST WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF LOWER CIGS/VSBYS.
CHERMOK
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 AM CST WED FEB 15 2012/
DISCUSSION...
VARIABLE SKY COVER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AT 08Z WITH PATCHY
DENSE FOG REPORTED OVER EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA AT KAHQ AND AROUND
KOLU. CLOUDS ENCROACHING FROM THE WEST AND SOUTH AND SHOULD
OVERSPREAD THE AREA BY 12Z. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP STILL LOOKS
TO BE OVER SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA...GENERALLY SOUTH OF I80
AFTER 12Z. TIMING HOWEVER MAY BE A PROBLEM AS LATEST RUC FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW LIMITED MID LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH MID MORNING
ALONG THE KANSAS BORDER THERE. HAVE LIMITED CHANCE POPS IN THAT
AREA THROUGH THE MORNING IN LINE WITH BOTH THE GFS AND NAM. BASED
ON THIS START TIME SHOULD SEE MAINLY RAIN THIS MORNING. AREA OF
RAIN THEN SPREADS NORTH FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH CHANCE POPS TO JUST
SOUTH OF THE OMAHA AREA INTO LINCOLN AND SOUTHWEST CORNER OF IOWA.
A CHANCE OF MIXED RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN IN THE EVENING FOR FAR
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST CORNER OF IOWA BEFORE PRECIP
SLIDES EAST AND ENDS. NO HEADLINES ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
LOOKS DRY AFTER THAT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH MODELS DIFFER
IN TIMING OF CLIPPER AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THAT COMES ACROSS
THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH THE GFS STRONGER WITH ITS FEATURES THAN
THE NAM OR EURO.
UPPER RIDGING MOVES INTO THE REGION EARLY IN THE EXTENDED WITH
SOMEWHAT WARMER TEMPERATURES BUT FAIRLY STRONG WAVE FOLLOWS FAST
ON ITS HEELS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. GFS AGAIN STRONGER THAN THE
EURO WITH THIS SYSTEM SO LOW CONFIDENCE WITH TIMING AND TRACK.
TIMING ISSUES THEN CONTINUE BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
FOBERT
AVIATION... 06Z TAF FOR KOMA...KLNK AND KOFK.
FOG WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THE TAF SITES...AND PRIMARILY
AT KLNK/KOMA. MID CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED THE AREA WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOG TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP...ALREADY 5
MILES AT KLNK. DROPPED VISIBILITY TO 5 MILES WITH IFR CEILINGS
DEVELOPING... BUT BELIEVE CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY 15Z WITH
JUST SOME HAZE AFTER THAT. REGARDING PRECIPITATION...BELIEVE
PRECIP MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE KS/NE BORDER REGION...BUT HAVE DOUBTS
THAT IT WOULD MAKE IT AS FAR NORTH AS KLNK/KOMA. ALSO FORECAST A
WIND SHIFT...FROM GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE...TO NORTH
NORTHWEST...INITIALLY AT KOFK AT 16Z...THEN AT AT KLNK/KOMA BY
ABOUT 20Z.
DEWALD
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
601 AM EST WED FEB 15 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
SLIDE SOUTH OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. LIGHT SNOW AND SCATTERED
FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THIS HAPPENS. BY WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS
WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA
FROM THE WEST. BY THURSDAY...ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL BARE DOWN ON
THE REGION WHICH WILL LEAD TO THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION
ACROSS NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND CENTRAL NEW YORK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1 AM UPDATE... THE CURRENT FCST IS IN GOOD SHAPE...SO ONLY MINOR
TWEAKS WERE MADE TO IT.
RADAR MOSAIC CONTS TO SHOW PATCHY -RA/-SN OVER MUCH OF THE FA
ATTM. AS AN UPR-LVL WAVE PROGRESSES THROUGH THE RGN EARLY THIS
MRNG...THIS PCPN SHOULD PERSIST TIL 09-12Z...BEFORE DIMINISHING TO
SPOTTY FLRYS/SPRINKLES. WE ADDED SOME VERY LGT SNOW ACCUMS PRIOR
TO DAYBRK...OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NE PA AND THE CATSKILLS.
WE`VE RECEIVED A COUPLE OF REPORTS OF A COATING OF SNOW THESE
AREAS OVER THE PAST FEW HRS.
MASSAGED NEAR-TERM TEMP GRIDS A BIT...TO BETTER REFLECT THE LATEST
SFC OBS...AND ALSO BLEND IN THE MOST RECENT LAV TEMPS.
1000 PM UPDATE...
A SHORT WAVE OVER NW PA AND WESTERN NY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHEAST OVER THE CWA THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AN AREA OF LIGHT
SNOW OVER NORTHERN PA WILL SLIDE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CATSKILLS
THROUGH 07Z. WITH SURFACE TEMPS NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING...ONLY A
DUSTING AT MOST IS EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE
FOR THIS OCCURRING OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN. ASIDE FROM THIS AREA
OF SNOW...THE REST OF THE NIGHT FOR MOST OF OUR AREA LOOKS VERY
QUIET. A LOOK AT 0Z SOUNDINGS FROM BUFFALO AND PITTSBURGH ALONG
WITH RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE EASED THE CONCERN FOR FREEZING
DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT SOMEWHAT. WHILE WE DO HAVE DRIER AIR WORKING
INTO THE MID LEVELS...WE ARE STILL FAIRLY MOIST UP THROUGH
-14C/-15C...SO WE SHOULD HAVE SOME ICE CRYSTALS TO WORK WITH. I
NOTICED THAT MOST OF THE OBS TO THE WEST THAT REPORTED PLAIN
DRIZZLE WERE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE LAKES...AND PROBABLY BEING
INFLUENCED BY THEM. WHILE SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE HERE AND THEIR CAN`T
ENTIRELY BE RULED OUT...THINKING THAT WHAT LITTLE PRECIP WE SEE
FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT WILL BE JUST SOME SCT. FLURRIES.
IT SEEMS OUR BEST SHOT AT A CHANGEOVER TO DRIZZLE WOULD BE MORE
TOWARD MID-MORNING WEDNESDAY AS WE BEGIN TO DRY OUT DOWN TOWARD
THE -10C LAYER. HOWEVER BY THE TIME THIS HAPPENS...BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPS WILL WARM ENOUGH THAT IT SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE. THE
PREVIOUS AFD IS BELOW...
630 PM UPDATE...
FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN VERY GOOD SHAPE WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS
THE ENTIRE CWA THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS. DESPITE RETURNS OF NEAR
20 DBZ ON RADAR...OBS ACROSS OUR AREA ARE SHOWING VERY...VERY
LIGHT SNOW WITH VSBYS IN THE 4 TO 6SM RANGE. IN FACT ACROSS THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS JUST SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE HAS BEEN REPORTED
AT SYRACUSE AND AVOCA IS STILL 41! PRECIP WILL REMAIN LIGHT OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS BUT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENS A BIT AND
TEMPS COOL TO NEAR FREEZING WE MAY SEE A QUICK COATING OF SNOW
OVER THE FAR NORTH (ONEIDA COUNTY). WE ARE ALREADY SEEING DRYING
TO OUR WEST AND OUR NEXT CONCERN WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR SOME
FREEZING DRIZZLE TONIGHT. THE PREVIOUS AFD ALREADY ADDRESSES THIS
CONCERN AND WILL MONITOR AND UPDATE AS NEEDED LATER TONIGHT.
SHORTWAVE ENERGY CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE EASTERN OHIO RVR VLY
WILL SLIDE SOUTH OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. CURRENT REGIONAL RADAR
IMAGERY DEPICTING MOST CONCENTRATED ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHERN PA...WITH
LIGHTER ACTIVITY NOTED FURTHER TO THE NORTH. WITH TIME THIS
EVENING...SHORTWAVE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION KEEPING THE BEST
FORCING FOR ASCENT SOUTH OF THE CWA. THAT SAID...MAIN CONCERN WITH
GOING FORECAST WILL BE INCREASING PROSPECTS FOR -FZDZ OVERNIGHT AS
AFOREMENTIONED WAVE INTERACTS WITH AN APPROACHING ELEVATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE SUBSTANTIAL DRYING ALOFT AS
WEAK UPPER RIDGING APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. AS THIS OCCURS...ICE
CRYSTAL GROWTH POTENTIAL WILL DECREASE WITH LOSS OF
SATURATION...THUS INTRODUCING THE POTENTIAL FOR -FZDZ ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AS MOISTURE REMAINS CONFINED IN THE LOWEST 10KFT.
WITH ONLY LIGHT QPF EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT...ANY -FZDZ THAT DEVELOPS WILL LIKELY BE PATCHY IN
NATURE AND HAVE DECIDED TO JUST ADVERTISE POTENTIAL IN THE HWO
PRODUCT FOR NOW. WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER ALOFT...OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
BY WED...SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND ELEVATED FRONT WILL BE DEPARTING TO
OUR EAST AS WEAK UPPER RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST IN
ADVANCE OF A CENTRAL PLAINS TROUGH. DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN HOW
QUICKLY PRECIP WILL EXIT TO THE EAST WED MORNING...BUT MODEL
INDICATIONS SUGGEST IMPROVING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. HAVE MAINTAINED SLGT CHC MENTION ACROSS
THE EASTERN CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON HRS...WITH MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED WED NIGHT AREA WIDE AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OVER THE AREA. HIGH TEMPS WED SHOULD WARM INTO THE UPPER 30S
TO NEAR 40 ALONG AND WEST OF I-81...WITH COOLER VALUES EXPECTED TO
THE EAST.
AFOREMENTIONED PLAINS DISTURBANCE WILL THEN TAKE AIM AT THE REGION BY
EARLY THU MORNING. PER CURRENT MODEL TRENDS...DRY NEAR SURFACE
LAYER CONDITIONS WILL REQUIRE COLUMN SATURATION BEFORE PRECIP
MAKES ITS WAY TO THE GROUND...AND HAVE ELECTED TO DELAY THE
PRECIP ARRIVAL TIME BY A FEW HRS THU MORNING AS A RESULT. WHEN PRECIP
DOES ARRIVE AFTER 12Z...MAIN CONCERN WILL BE PRECIP TYPE. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING OFF TO OUR EAST COMBINED WITH AN APPROACHING WARM
FRONT SUGGEST WE MAY RECEIVE A BRIEF WINTRY MIX THU MORNING BEFORE
BULK OF ACTIVITY TRANSITIONS INTO RA AS REGION GETS ENTRENCHED IN
THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF MAIN COLD FRONT. CURRENT LOW TRACK TAKES LOW
FROM NEAR DETROIT NORTHEAST TO NORTH BAY, ON WHICH CERTAINLY IS
REMINISCENT OF ANY SIGNIFICANT MIXED PRECIP EVENTS. THAT
SAID...MAIN AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY WERE AGEOSTROPIC WIND CIRCULATIONS MAY KEEP COLD AIR
ENTRENCHED FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME. ALL TOLD...HAVE DECIDED TO
ENTER A WINTRY MIX MENTION IN THE MORNING...WITH WITH A GRADUAL
CHANGEOVER TO RA AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. WILL CERTAINLY HAVE TO
WATCH TRENDS IN THE COMING DAYS TO PIN DOWN THE DETAILS AS THE
EVENT NEARS.
BY THU NIGHT...MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE POST FRONTAL WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION SLOWLY WORKING INTO THE AREA. LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE FRI AS WESTERLY WINDS DOWN THE LENGTH OF THE
LAKE COMBINE WITH H85 TEMPS -11C. CURRENT BUFKIT PROFILES SUGGEST
BEST POTENTIAL FOR ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT WILL BE NORTH OF CWA IN
WELL ALIGNED 270-280 FLOW HOWEVER MEAGER INVERSION HEIGHTS
HOWEVER MAY BE A LIMITING FACTOR.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH SHARP DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS
AND EURO SOLUTIONS. EACH SHOW A NORTHEASTERN TROF. HOWEVER THE GFS
SOLUTION CALLS FOR A VIGOROUS, SHARP TROF WITH A STRONG STACKED
LOW OVER LAKE ERIE AND AN EVEN STRONGER STORM SOUTHEAST OF LONG
ISLAND. THE EURO CALLS FOR A MUCH GENTLER TROF, WITH LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF WEATHER REFLECTED.
MODELS PHASE INTO STRONG AGREEMENT THAT A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL BUILD ALONG THE COAST FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WITH
NOTICEABLE RIDGING ALOFT. THE RESULT WOULD BE MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES, AND CLEAR WEATHER.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WEAK TROF OF LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING THOUGH THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION THIS MORNING. LIGHT FOG AND VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL
CONTINUE NORTH OF THE TROF, INTO NY AND PA. THIS WILL BRING MAINLY
MVFR CONDITIONS TO THE REGION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
A PERIOD OF IFR VISBYS IS EXPECTED AT AVP BETWEEN 11Z AND 14Z,
FLUCTUATING BETWEEN 1 1/2SM AND 4SM.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT LATER TODAY,
ALLOWING THE ATMOSPHERE TO DRY, AND CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE.
VISIBILITIES WILL BE QUICKEST TO REACH VFR TERRITORY BY LATE
MORNING. VFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TOWARD SUNSET.
.OUTLOOK...
WED NGT...VFR.
THUR...IFR/MVFR IN -SHRA AND PSBLY SOME MIXED PCPN AT ONSET.
FRI/SAT...MAINLY VFR.
SUN...VFR...PSBL MVFR/IFR PA WITH SNOW.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...MLJ
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...DJP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
632 AM EST WED FEB 15 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND REACH THE EAST
COAST THURSDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT OVER THE PLAINS STATES WILL
MOVE ACROSS OHIO AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN BUILDING INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WAS BUILDING INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING. THE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION/FLURRIES/FREEZING DRIZZLE CONTINUES TO DECREASE AS PER THE
RADAR AND THE OBSERVATIONS. WILL CONTINUE WITH A THREAT OF IT EAST
OF CLEVELAND AND AKRON THROUGH THE MORNING COMMUTE. OTHERWISE THE
LOW CLOUDS WILL EVENTUALLY GO AWAY BUT WILL BE REPLACED BY MID
CLOUDS. A LITTLE SUN COULD OCCUR...HOWEVER...MOSTLY CLOUDY SHOULD
HANDLE IT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE A LITTLE TRICKY...SINCE THE CLOUD
COVER IS A LITTLE IN QUESTION. USED A COMPROMISE OF THE MOS
GUIDANCE. THE HRRR MODEL IS TRYING TO INDICATE SOME RAIN COULD
MOVE INTO THE FINDLAY AND MARION AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. RADAR
UPSTREAM IS INDICATING ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS. WILL FORECAST
SPRINKLES LATE THIS AFTERNOON FOR NORTHWEST OHIO.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
RAIN WILL SPREAD EAST FAIRLY RAPIDLY ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES AND THICKNESS AND A SOUTHWEST FLOW INDICATE THAT THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ALL RAIN. THE NAM SEEMS TOO SLOW BASED ON
THE RADAR AND THE SOMEWHAT FAST FLOW. THE RAIN WILL DECREASE AFTER
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHWEST OHIO IN
THE MORNING AND ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SPC
HAS THE AREA IN GENERAL THUNDER FOR THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME WILL
NOT MENTION IT AS THE AIRMASS DOESN`T SEEM UNSTABLE ENOUGH...BUT
IT WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD UNDER HALF
AN INCH AND EVEN THE IMPACT FROM THE SNOW MELT SHOULD ONLY BE
ENOUGH TO CAUSE RISES IN STREAMS...CREEKS AND RIVERS. SOME COULD
APPROACH BANKFULL. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP MUCH TONIGHT AND MAY
RISE A DEGREE OR TWO. HIGHS ARE TOUGH ON THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY IF
THE RAIN IS SOMEWHAT CONTINUOUS. STAYED ON THE COOLER SIDE.
SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF AN IMPACT AS THE
LAKE AND 850 MB TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE WILL BE ONLY AROUND
8 OR 9C AND THE AIRMASS IS REALLY DRYING OUT. ELSEWHERE JUST SOME
CLOUDS AND THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS IS IN QUESTION.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ACR0SS THE REGION FRIDAY. THE
MODELS AGREE WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON SATURDAY
BUT THE GFS IS MUCH STRONGER WITH IT THEN THE ECMWF. AT THIS TIME
WILL CONTINUE THE DRIER TREND.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS STILL NOT IN AGREEMENT ON SUNDAY. GFS MAINTAINS A COASTAL
LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH A TROUGH ACROSS
THE EASTERN LAKES. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND HAS THE COASTAL LOW
MUCH FURTHER SOUTH WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. HPC
PREFERS THE ECMWF WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE AT THIS POINT. ACTUALLY
BOTH MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
GREAT LAKES MONDAY. BOTH MODELS BRING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS
CENTRAL LAKES TUESDAY...WITH THE GFS BEING THE FASTER OF THE 2
MODELS. LEANED TOWARD THE SLOWER ECMWF FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE FROM YNG EAST WILL END BY MID MORNING. MVFR
CIGS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING PUSH. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY
IMPROVE TO VFR FROM THE SW DURING THE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS RETURN OVERNIGHT WITH RAIN DEVELOPING
AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. NON
VFR WILL LINGER ACROSS NE OH/NW PA FROM THURSDAY EVENING INTO
FRIDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
ANOTHER DAY WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE
NEEDED THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES
TOMORROW DRAGGING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LAKE. MODELS STILL
DIFFER ON THE EXACT TRACK AND TIMING OF THE LOW BUT IN ANY CASE A
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS DEVELOPS BEHIND THE FRONT.
SMALL CRAFT WILL BE NEEDED UNTIL LATE FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE LAKE.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...DJB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS FORT WORTH TX
532 AM CST WED FEB 15 2012
.AVIATION...
CONCERNS... IFR AND LIFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING...CROSSWIND PROBLEMS
AT THE METROPLEX TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON...AND MVFR/IFR CEILINGS
RETURNING THURSDAY MORNING.
IFR CEILINGS ARE PREVAILING AT THE METROPLEX TAF SITES THIS
MORNING WITH LIFR CIGS AND VISBY AT KACT. HOWEVER...SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW ALREADY ERODING TO THE WEST OF THE
METROPLEX AS DRY AIR AT 850 MB MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. BASED ON
THE LATEST TRENDS AND GUIDANCE FROM THE RUC MODEL...IT APPEARS
THE IFR CIGS WILL IMPROVE INTO VFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 12-13Z AS
THIS DRIER AIR AT 850 MB REACHES THE METROPLEX. AT KACT...EXPECT
LIFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH 15Z AND IMPROVE TO MVFR FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE MORNING.
LIGHT SHOWERS ARE INCREASING IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION AND
WILL CARRY VCSH AT ALL THE TAF SITES FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING. WHILE
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT THIS
MORNING...THE THREAT IS TOO LOW TO CONTINUE THE CB MENTION IN THE
TAF...EXCEPT FOR AT KACT FROM 16-18Z. A DRYLINE WILL REACH THE
I-35 CORRIDOR AROUND 20Z WITH WEST WINDS OF 15G25KT OCCURRING AT
THE METROPLEX TAF SITES BUT LESSER WINDS AROUND 12-14 KTS AT KACT.
THE GUSTY WEST WINDS IN THE METROPLEX WILL CREATE SOME CROSSWIND
PROBLEMS. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT A FEW ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR ALONG THE DRYLINE AS IT REACHES THE TAF
SITES THIS AFTERNOON BUT THE POTENTIAL IS LOW AT THIS TIME AND
WILL NOT MENTION A CB GROUP IN THE TAF WITH THIS ISSUANCE. THE
WIND SPEEDS WILL SUBSIDE AROUND SUNSET AND THEN A COLD FRONT WILL
ARRIVE BETWEEN 07-08Z WITH THE WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST AND
THEN NORTH. THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD CONSENSUS AMONG THE MODELS THAT
LOW MVFR OR IFR CEILINGS WILL DROP IN BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...REACHING THE METROPLEX BETWEEN 10-12Z THURSDAY MORNING AND
WILL PREVAIL BKN010.
82/JLD
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 AM CST WED FEB 15 2012/
STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS THIS MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED DRY
LINE/PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE THROUGH THE MORNING WITH INCREASING LARGE SCALE FORCING.
THE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO OPEN UP AND LIFT QUICKLY NORTHEAST
THIS AFTERNOON AND ALLOW THE DRY LINE TO SURGE EASTWARD. A FEW
STRONG/MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE DRY LINE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ZONES WHERE MOISTURE AND SHEAR WILL BE MOST
FAVORABLE. ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL BE FAST MOVERS AND SHOULD
EXIT INTO EAST TEXAS BEFORE SUNSET. DOWNBURST WINDS AND HAIL WILL
BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.
WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE BETWEEN 15 AND 30 MPH BEHIND
THE DRYLINE AND HUMIDITIES WILL FALL BELOW 30 PERCENT. THESE
ELEVATED GRASS FIRE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON...
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF A GRAHAM TO GOLDTHWAITE LINE.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS TONIGHT AND BRING
COOLER AND DRIER AIR THROUGH THURSDAY. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL
DEVELOP IN THE SOUTHWEST U.S. ON FRIDAY AND RESULT IN INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDINESS ACROSS TEXAS. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS NOT EXPECTED
TO SURGE NORTHWARD DUE TO A SURFACE LOW IN THE GULF. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS NORTH TEXAS FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE MOST ABUNDANT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL END
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST SATURDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. A BRIEF COOL DOWN
IS EXPECTED SUNDAY BEFORE LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASES
AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE WEST.
MOST OF THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN TO THE
NORTH OF TEXAS WITH SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ROCKIES
AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. NORTH TEXAS MAY SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS MONDAY GENERALLY ALONG AND AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY WITH DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
79
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 76 42 60 40 58 / 50 10 0 10 10
WACO, TX 75 39 59 40 58 / 50 10 0 10 10
PARIS, TX 69 42 60 36 61 / 60 10 0 10 10
DENTON, TX 76 38 61 34 57 / 50 10 0 10 10
MCKINNEY, TX 74 39 59 36 58 / 50 10 0 10 10
DALLAS, TX 77 46 58 41 60 / 50 10 0 10 10
TERRELL, TX 72 41 59 38 60 / 60 10 0 10 10
CORSICANA, TX 73 44 61 40 60 / 60 10 0 10 10
TEMPLE, TX 74 41 62 40 60 / 60 10 0 10 10
MINERAL WELLS, TX 75 37 58 34 56 / 40 10 0 10 10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
82/79
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
331 PM EST WED FEB 15 2012
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT...BRINGING
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND PERHAPS A COUPLE THUNDERSTORMS FOR CENTRAL
INDIANA. CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL END BY MIDDAY THURSDAY AS THE LOW
PULLS AWAY TO THE EAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND INTO THE REGION BY
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PRECIP CHANCES WILL RETURN FOR NEXT
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
LIGHT RAINFALL CONTINUES TO EXPAND ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST. TEMPS HAD WARMED INTO THE MID 40S OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA WHERE PRECIP WAS JUST BEGINNING TO ARRIVE. FURTHER
WEST AS RAINFALL BEGINS...TEMPS SLIDING BACK A FEW DEGREES INTO THE
LOWER 40S.
FORECAST FOCUS TONIGHT IS ON RAIN CHANCES AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ARRIVES AND A SURFACE WAVE TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION. HAVE RELIED
MORE ON THE HRRR FOR RAINFALL COVERAGE INTO THIS EVENING AS BOTH THE
NAM AND OP GFS ALREADY ARE TOO FAR NORTH AND NOT CAPTURING THE
WIDESPREAD NATURE OF THE LIGHT PRECIP PROPERLY.
BROAD SURFACE WAVE CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER OKLAHOMA WILL MOVE
STEADILY NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT. WHILE PRECIP WILL
REMAIN LIGHT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...RAINFALL INTENSITY SHOULD
INCREASE DURING THE EVENING AS 35-40KT LOW LEVEL JET PUMPS DEEPER
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WAVE. BOTH OP GFS
AND NAM INDICATE FAVORABLE PRECIP EFFICIENCY PROGS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE BELOW 700MB MAXIMIZES AND COINCIDES WITH AN
AXIS OF PRECIP WATER VALUES APPROACHING 1 INCH. ENHANCED FORCING
ALOFT WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WITH EMBEDDED
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS OVERNIGHT. HAVE CONTINUED WITH 100 POPS FOR THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...SPECIFICALLY FOCUSED AFTER MIDNIGHT WHEN
FORCING AND MOISTURE ARE GREATEST. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING WEAK
ELEVATED INSTABILITY WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY APPROACHES
AND WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDER. QPF VALUES OF
0.40 TO 0.75 INCHES STILL LOOKS QUITE REASONABLE BY DAYBREAK
THURSDAY.
TEMPS...TEMPS NOT LIKELY TO FALL MUCH OVERNIGHT AS COOLER AIR REALLY
DOES NOT START TO WORK INTO THE REGION UNTIL RIGHT NEAR DAYBREAK AS
THE FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA. LAMP DATA DOING A MUCH BETTER JOB
THAN MOS CAPTURING THIS THINKING...AND HAVE LEANED MUCH CLOSER TO
ITS NUMBERS WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO NEAR 45
DEGREE OVER FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON DEPARTURE OF RAINFALL AND CLOUDS ON
THURSDAY. LINGERING RAINFALL EXPECTED TO END FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE MORNING AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTS AWAY
TO THE EAST. HELD ONTO PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING OF KEEPING ANY
THUNDER MENTION OUT FOR THURSDAY MORNING WITH SOUNDINGS SHOWING NO
ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY. ISSUE DURING THE DAY
WILL BECOME HOW QUICKLY LOW STRATUS DEPARTS WITH HIGH PRESSURE
EXPANDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE WEST. LOW LEVEL RH PROGS AND
MODEL SOUNDINGS BOTH SHOWING SHALLOW MOISTURE BECOMING TRAPPED
UNDERNEATH A FAIRLY SHARP INVERSION. INVERSION GIVES WAY ONLY SLOWLY
DESPITE THE INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. HELD OFF ON
FULLY CLEARING SKIES UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS THE
INVERSION FINALLY GIVES WAY.
REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM LOOKS QUIET AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THE
DOMINANT FEATURE. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY WITH JUST PERIODS OF CIRRUS FROM TIME TO TIME. LIKELY TO SEE
A BUMP UP IN CLOUD COVERAGE FRIDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE ALOFT WITH A
WEAK SURFACE WAVE PINWHEELS THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. OP GFS
REMAINS ALONE IN CONTINUING TO ADVERTISE INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION RIGHT AT THE END OF THE PERIOD EARLY
SATURDAY DUE TO ENHANCED PHASING ALOFT BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHORTWAVE AND A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO. PREFER MODEL CONSENSUS WHICH MAINTAINS NO IMPACTS OTHER THAN
SUBTLE INCREASES IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVERAGE AS PREDOMINANT
NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER CUTS OFF ANY ADVECTION OF
GULF MOISTURE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
TEMPS...UNDERCUT MOS GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS THURSDAY AS LINGERING LOW
CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO STUNT TEMP RISES IN COLD ADVECTION REGIME. WENT
FAIRLY CLOSE TO MAVMOS GUIDANCE THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS
HIGHS SHOULD RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 40S ON FRIDAY. LOWS RANGING FROM
THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S ARE ANTICIPATED THURS/FRI NIGHTS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LATEST INITIALIZATION CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE NAM AND CANADIAN IN
REGARD TO POSSIBLE PRECIP ON SATURDAY. ACCORDING TO THOSE
MODELS...IT WILL BE A DRY FORECAST AS 2 DISTURBANCES JUST MISS
CENTRAL INDIANA...ONE TO THE NORTH AND ONE TO THE SOUTH.
HOWEVER...THE EXCEPTION CONTINUES TO BE THE GFS. FOR NOW...WILL
STICK WITH MODEL CONSENSUS AND LEAVE PRECIP OUT OF FORECAST.
BEYOND THAT...ALL MODELS ARE INDICATING RAIN ACROSS FORECAST AREA
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING AS THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES IN. THERE IS STILL SOME DISCREPANCY IN REGARD
TO TIMING OF SYSTEM...WITH THE GFS BEING SLOWER THAN THE EURO.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO GO ANY HIGHER THAN CHANCE POPS AT
THIS TIME. SO WILL NOT DEVIATE FROM INITIALIZATION NUMBERS. WILL
ALSO STAY WITH MODEL BLEND IN REGARD TO TEMPS THROUGH DURATION OF
LONG TERM.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 152030Z TAF UPDATE/...
MVFR VISIBILITIES IN RAIN HAVE ALREADY ARRIVED AT KIND AND SHOULD
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. CEILINGS ARE CURRENTLY VFR BUT
THEY WILL DETERIORATE INTO MVFR AS WELL IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES CLOSER TO TAF SITES. CURRENT RADAR
IMAGERY IS ALREADY SHOWING PRECIP MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
SO...MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON...AND THEN DETERIORATE TO IFR CATEGORY AS CEILINGS FALL
WITH ONSET OF RAIN. RAIN WILL INTENSIFY AFTER THU 00Z AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT.
PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF AROUND DAYBREAK TOMORROW AND COME TO AN END
BY MID MORNING. EXPECT A RETURN TO MVFR CONDITIONS AROUND THAT
TIME AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TAF PERIOD.
WINDS WILL BE SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY AT 8 TO 10 KTS THROUGH TONIGHT
BEFORE BECOMING WESTERLY IN WAKE OF THE SYSTEM TOMORROW MORNING.
ALSO EXPECT AN INCREASE IN SPEEDS WITH WIND SHIFT. SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 14 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS THROUGH
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD/50
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
329 PM EST WED FEB 15 2012
.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM SECTIONS HAVE
BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT...BRINGING
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND PERHAPS A COUPLE THUNDERSTORMS FOR CENTRAL
INDIANA. CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL END BY MIDDAY THURSDAY AS THE LOW
PULLS AWAY TO THE EAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND INTO THE REGION BY
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PRECIP CHANCES WILL RETURN FOR NEXT
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
LIGHT RAINFALL CONTINUES TO EXPAND ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST. TEMPS HAD WARMED INTO THE MID 40S OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA WHERE PRECIP WAS JUST BEGINNING TO ARRIVE. FURTHER
WEST AS RAINFALL BEGINS...TEMPS SLIDING BACK A FEW DEGREES INTO THE
LOWER 40S.
FORECAST FOCUS TONIGHT IS ON RAIN CHANCES AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ARRIVES AND A SURFACE WAVE TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION. HAVE RELIED
MORE ON THE HRRR FOR RAINFALL COVERAGE INTO THIS EVENING AS BOTH THE
NAM AND OP GFS ALREADY ARE TOO FAR NORTH AND NOT CAPTURING THE
WIDESPREAD NATURE OF THE LIGHT PRECIP PROPERLY.
BROAD SURFACE WAVE CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER OKLAHOMA WILL MOVE
STEADILY NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT. WHILE PRECIP WILL
REMAIN LIGHT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...RAINFALL INTENSITY SHOULD
INCREASE DURING THE EVENING AS 35-40KT LOW LEVEL JET PUMPS DEEPER
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WAVE. BOTH OP GFS
AND NAM INDICATE FAVORABLE PRECIP EFFICIENCY PROGS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE BELOW 700MB MAXIMIZES AND COINCIDES WITH AN
AXIS OF PRECIP WATER VALUES APPROACHING 1 INCH. ENHANCED FORCING
ALOFT WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WITH EMBEDDED
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS OVERNIGHT. HAVE CONTINUED WITH 100 POPS FOR THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...SPECIFICALLY FOCUSED AFTER MIDNIGHT WHEN
FORCING AND MOISTURE ARE GREATEST. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING WEAK
ELEVATED INSTABILITY WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY APPROACHES
AND WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDER. QPF VALUES OF
0.40 TO 0.75 INCHES STILL LOOKS QUITE REASONABLE BY DAYBREAK
THURSDAY.
TEMPS...TEMPS NOT LIKELY TO FALL MUCH OVERNIGHT AS COOLER AIR REALLY
DOES NOT START TO WORK INTO THE REGION UNTIL RIGHT NEAR DAYBREAK AS
THE FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA. LAMP DATA DOING A MUCH BETTER JOB
THAN MOS CAPTURING THIS THINKING...AND HAVE LEANED MUCH CLOSER TO
ITS NUMBERS WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO NEAR 45
DEGREE OVER FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON DEPARTURE OF RAINFALL AND CLOUDS ON
THURSDAY. LINGERING RAINFALL EXPECTED TO END FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE MORNING AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTS AWAY
TO THE EAST. HELD ONTO PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING OF KEEPING ANY
THUNDER MENTION OUT FOR THURSDAY MORNING WITH SOUNDINGS SHOWING NO
ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY. ISSUE DURING THE DAY
WILL BECOME HOW QUICKLY LOW STRATUS DEPARTS WITH HIGH PRESSURE
EXPANDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE WEST. LOW LEVEL RH PROGS AND
MODEL SOUNDINGS BOTH SHOWING SHALLOW MOISTURE BECOMING TRAPPED
UNDERNEATH A FAIRLY SHARP INVERSION. INVERSION GIVES WAY ONLY SLOWLY
DESPITE THE INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. HELD OFF ON
FULLY CLEARING SKIES UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS THE
INVERSION FINALLY GIVES WAY.
REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM LOOKS QUIET AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THE
DOMINANT FEATURE. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY WITH JUST PERIODS OF CIRRUS FROM TIME TO TIME. LIKELY TO SEE
A BUMP UP IN CLOUD COVERAGE FRIDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE ALOFT WITH A
WEAK SURFACE WAVE PINWHEELS THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. OP GFS
REMAINS ALONE IN CONTINUING TO ADVERTISE INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION RIGHT AT THE END OF THE PERIOD EARLY
SATURDAY DUE TO ENHANCED PHASING ALOFT BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHORTWAVE AND A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO. PREFER MODEL CONSENSUS WHICH MAINTAINS NO IMPACTS OTHER THAN
SUBTLE INCREASES IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVERAGE AS PREDOMINANT
NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER CUTS OFF ANY ADVECTION OF
GULF MOISTURE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
TEMPS...UNDERCUT MOS GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS THURSDAY AS LINGERING LOW
CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO STUNT TEMP RISES IN COLD ADVECTION REGIME. WENT
FAIRLY CLOSE TO MAVMOS GUIDANCE THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS
HIGHS SHOULD RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 40S ON FRIDAY. LOWS RANGING FROM
THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S ARE ANTICIPATED THURS/FRI NIGHTS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LATEST INITIALIZATION CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE NAM AND CANADIAN IN
REGARD TO POSSIBLE PRECIP ON SATURDAY. ACCORDING TO THOSE
MODELS...IT WILL BE A DRY FORECAST AS 2 DISTURBANCES JUST MISS
CENTRAL INDIANA...ONE TO THE NORTH AND ONE TO THE SOUTH.
HOWEVER...THE EXCEPTION CONTINUES TO BE THE GFS. FOR NOW...WILL
STICK WITH MODEL CONSENSUS AND LEAVE PRECIP OUT OF FORECAST.
BEYOND THAT...ALL MODELS ARE INDICATING RAIN ACROSS FORECAST AREA
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING AS THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES IN. THERE IS STILL SOME DISCREPANCY IN REGARD
TO TIMING OF SYSTEM...WITH THE GFS BEING SLOWER THAN THE EURO.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO GO ANY HIGHER THAN CHANCE POPS AT
THIS TIME. SO WILL NOT DEVIATE FROM INITIALIZATION NUMBERS. WILL
ALSO STAY WITH MODEL BLEND IN REGARD TO TEMPS THROUGH DURATION OF
LONG TERM.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 15/18Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES CLOSER TO TAF SITES. CURRENT
RADAR IMAGERY IS ALREADY SHOWING PRECIP MOVING IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. SO...MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON...AND THEN DETERIORATE TO IFR CATEGORY AS CEILINGS
FALL WITH ONSET OF RAIN. RAIN WILL INTENSIFY AFTER THU 00Z AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT.
PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF AROUND DAYBREAK TOMORROW AND COME TO AN END
BY MID MORNING. EXPECT A RETURN TO MVFR CONDITIONS AROUND THAT
TIME AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TAF PERIOD.
WINDS WILL BE SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY AT 8 TO 10 KTS THROUGH TONIGHT
BEFORE BECOMING WESTERLY IN WAKE OF THE SYSTEM TOMORROW MORNING.
ALSO EXPECT AN INCREASE IN SPEEDS WITH WIND SHIFT. SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 14 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS THROUGH
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
353 PM CST WED FEB 15 2012
...UPDATED SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, AND LONG TERM SECTIONS...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 353 PM CST WED FEB 15 2012
THE 15.12Z 300 HPA SYNOPTIC MAP SHOWED A FAST 125 TO 140 KT JET EXTENDING
ACROSS TEXAS AND INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. ANOTHER 75 TO
85 KT MERIDIONAL JET EXTENDED FROM OREGON INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
500 HPA MAP ANALYSIS SHOWS TWO MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE JETS...ONE OVER EASTERN CA/WESTERN NV AND ANOTHER OPEN SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS
(850 TO 500 HPA), THE MOST INTERESTING ITEM OF NOTE, PARTICULARLY FOR
THE KDDC RAOB, WAS STEEP LAPSE RATES. SURFACE FRONTAL ANALYSIS PER HPC
AT 1943Z SHOWED A FRONTAL SYSTEM ACROSS KANSAS WITH A LOW PRESSURE CENTER
ACROSS NW OKLAHOMA AND AN OCCLUDED FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TOMORROW)
ISSUED AT 353 PM CST WED FEB 15 2012
TONIGHT:
THE NEAR TERM/MESOSCALE CONCERN FOR TONIGHT WAS WHAT TO DO WITH POPS
FROM THE LATEST KDDC WSR-88D TRENDS. THIS PRECIPITATION IS BEING CAUSED
BY A 700 HPA DEFORMATION AXIS ON THE BACKSIDE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
RUC AND PARTICULARLY HRRR WERE AGGRESSIVE WITH FORECAST COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITIES
THIS MORNING. IN ADDITION, 700 HPA OMEGA WAS ALSO NOTED IN THE SAME
REGION. THE 700 HPA DEFORMATION ZONE PER SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS IS
BECOMING STRETCHED ALONG AN AXIS OF DILATATION. THEREFORE HAVE TRIMMED
THE POPS EVEN FURTHER FROM AN UPDATE THIS MORNING WITH THE AERIAL COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS DIMINISHING TO NOTHING BY 00Z TONIGHT.
MODELS SHOW THAT AFTER 00Z, LOWER DEWPOINT ADVECTION WILL OCCUR AT THE
SURFACE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW A DRYING IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS.
THEREFORE HAVE A CLEARING TREND IN THE SKY GRIDS. A LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY
TO NORTHERLY WIND IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE PRIMARILY
IN THE 20S DEG F.
THURSDAY:
A FORECAST CONCERN THAT WAS MENTIONED IN THE TAF SECTION BELOW WAS THE
POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING FOG. MOS GUIDANCE WAS AGGRESSIVE, INCLUDING LAMP
GUIDANCE, IN BRINGING LOW STRATUS AND FOG BACK TO THE REGION TOMORROW.
BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT THE LAYER OF SATURATION IS NEAR
THE SURFACE AND DOESN`T EXTEND VERY FAR UP IN THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN
FOR CONSIDERABLE DRYING/LARGE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE FORECAST. AS
A RESULT, WILL NOT BRING THE MENTION OF FREEZING FOG IN THE FORECAST
FOR NOW. FROST LOOKS MORE LIKELY AT THE SURFACE. EVEN IF FREEZING
FOG DOES OCCUR, IT SHOULD BE VERY PATCHY DUE TO DRY AIR IMMEDIATELY
ABOVE THE SURFACE, INCLUDING WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
WINDS TOMORROW MORNING WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS A CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS KANSAS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FA ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH. HIGHS
TOMORROW SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 40S AND NEAR 50 DEG F. NO PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AND WITH SUBSIDENCE EXPECTED THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM CST WED FEB 15 2012
A FAIRLY ACTIVE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD A BROAD TROUGH WILL
BE SITUATED FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION
WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS. A TROUGH/CLOSED LOW WILL BE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
INTO NORTHWEST MEXICO. THE GFS MODEL SHOWS THE NORTHERN PLAINS SHORTWAVE
PHASING WITH THE SOUTHWEST CONUS SYSTEM WITH THE RESULTANT TROUGH MOVING
INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THIS MODEL ALSO
BREAKS OUT SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS SHOW THE TWO SYSTEMS REMAINING SEPARATE
WITH BOTH SYSTEMS PASSING BY EITHER NORTH OR SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS. THE GFS HAS STRUGGLED WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL RUNS WHICH LEADS LESS CREDENCE TO THAT MODEL SOLUTION.
WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THAT TIME PERIOD.
WHILE THIS WAVE IS MOVING EAST OF THE CENTRAL CONUS...ANOTHER SYSTEM
WILL BE MOVING INTO THE ROCKIES. BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY THE ECMWF
SHOWS A PIECE OF THIS WAVE EJECTING OUT OVER WESTERN KANSAS WITH PRECIPITATION
BREAKING OUT OVER WESTERN KANSAS. THE MODELS HAVE DIFFERING SOLUTIONS
IN HOW THIS WAVE WILL EVOLVE AND WHEN IT WILL MOVE OUT THROUGH THE
CENTRAL CONUS. NOT REAL CONFIDENT IN ANY SOLUTION BUT THE ECMWF
SEEMS TO SHOW A LITTLE MORE CONTINUITY WITH ITS PREVIOUS RUNS. THE
LATEST CR INIT HAS CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN 2/3RDS OFF THE CWA WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1135 AM CST WED FEB 15 2012
MODIFIED TAFS WITH A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE NW OF THE TERMINALS SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH
OF AN IMPACT IN THIS REGARD. HOWEVER, CIGS WILL REMAIN REDUCED DUE
TO FOG/STRATUS/LOWERED VIS. MOS GUIDANCE WAS SUGGESTING FOG FORMATION
FOR TOMORROW MORNING, HOWEVER, FORECAST SOUNDINGS (INCLUDING BUFKIT)
SHOW THIS SHOULD BE PATCHY/ISOLATED SO WILL DEFER TO LATER TAF
ISSUANCES DUE TO UNCERTAINTY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 22 48 26 50 / 10 0 0 10
GCK 19 48 24 51 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 21 49 27 53 / 0 0 0 10
LBL 22 51 25 53 / 20 0 0 10
HYS 21 47 26 47 / 0 0 0 0
P28 26 50 27 54 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SUGDEN
SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM....GERARD
AVIATION...SUGDEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1050 AM MST WED FEB 15 2012
.UPDATE...
731 AM MST WED FEB 15 2012
UPDATED GRIDS AND ZONES FOR THE CANCELLATION OF THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY. RADAR RETURNS AND OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE LACK OF ANY
PRECIPITATION SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY.
FS
&&
.DISCUSSION...
326 AM MST WED FEB 15 2012
FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE WHAT KIND OF WEATHER TODAYS INCOMING SYSTEM
IS GOING TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA. SATELLITE SHOWING A BROAD STRONG
UPPER TROUGH OVER MOST OF THE PACIFIC WHICH IS CAUSING A RIDGE TO
AMPLIFY ALONG THE WEST COAST. THEN OVER NORTH AMERICA THERE IS A
CHAOTIC SPLIT FLOW WITH NUMEROUS SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THIS FLOW.
SYSTEM TO AFFECT US TODAY IS MOVING ACROSS NEW MEXICO WITH A
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTH CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY.
ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING SOUTH FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
AT JET LEVEL THE MODELS LOOKED FINE. MID LEVEL FLOW IS VERY CHAOTIC
AND UNORGANIZED WITH A LOT OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTERACTION.
INITIALLY AT 00Z...THE NAM FOLLOWED BY THE UKMET...GFS...AND
CANADIAN WERE GETTING OUR SOUTHERN CIRCULATION THE BEST BASED ON
SATELLITE AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS. BY 06Z THE SYSTEM LOOKS TO HAVE
SEPARATED INTO TWO DIFFERENT CIRCULATION. AT THIS TIME THE RUC
FOLLOWED BY THE CANADIAN AND UKMET WAS CATCHING THE SYSTEM THE BEST
OVER NEW MEXICO. FOR THE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL
PORTION OF THE COUNTRY...WHICH WILL AFFECT HOW THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM
KICKS OUT...THE CANADIAN AND UKMET WERE DOING THE BEST THERE.
AT THE SURFACE THE ECMWF IS CATCHING THE POSITION OF THE INCOMING
FRONT BEST PLUS HAS THE BEST HANDLE ON THE SURFACE LOW POSITION TO
OUR SOUTH. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN ARE THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL AND
MOISTURE PROFILE THE BEST.
TODAY/TONIGHT...VERY TRICKY FORECAST FOR TODAY. MODELS HAVING
TROUBLE IN DIFFERENT ASPECTS. OVERALL LIKE THE RUC...CANADIAN AND
UKMET DEPICTION OF THE POSITION OF THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION ALONG
WITH THE QPF...SNOWFALL...AND WEATHER THEY ARE DEPICTING. CURRENTLY
SATELLITE AND PLAN PROFILER WINDS SHOW THAT 700 MB TROUGHLINE IS
WORKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA AND ROUGHLY DIVIDES MY AREA INTO A
NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST HALF. CURRENTLY IR SATELLITE AND MOSAIC
RADAR HAVE THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS AND RETURNS OVER THE SOUTHEAST
HALF AHEAD OF THE TROUGHLINE.
MODELS HAVE TENDED TO TAKE THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION A LITTLE
FURTHER SOUTH THAN YESTERDAY WITH MOST IN THE SAME GENERAL AREA BUT
BASED ON SATELLITE AND REASONING GIVEN ABOVE THE RUC...CANADIAN AND
UKMET TENDED TO HAVE IT FURTHER SOUTH. SO BELIEVE THE SOUTHEAST
HALF OF THE AREA WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.
HOWEVER AM CONCERNED WITH THE TROUGHLINE ALREADY WORKING ITS WAY
ACROSS THE AREA AND THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVING IN
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE FORECAST ALREADY. IF RUC IS CORRECT
LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR. BUT NOT CONFIDENT TO TOTALLY
ELIMINATE THAT.
NEXT QUESTION WILL BE THE PHASE. SURFACE/850 MB DEWPOINTS AND
TEMPERATURES START OUT ABOVE FREEZING IN THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF
THE AREA ACCORDING TO THE MODELS AND MATCH WELL WITH REALITY AT
THIS TIME. THE COLD AIR DOES NOT REALLY ARRIVE IN ERNEST LATE BY
LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THE WINDOW FOR FREEZING
PRECIPITATION HAS NARROWED. FELT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO TRIM OFF THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. HOWEVER...IT LOOKS
CLOSE ENOUGH IN THE SOUTHEAST THIRD REMAINS HIGH ENOUGH BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH. SO LOWERED ICE AMOUNTS IN THE ADVISORY
AREA. ALSO BASED ON SOUNDINGS AND REALITY ADDED FREEZING FOG THIS
MORNING. SHOULD BE ALL SNOW THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE SOUTHEAST MAYBE
SEEING UP TO AN INCH BASED ON WHERE THE CIRCULATION APPEARS TO BE.
QPF AND SNOW AMOUNTS ACTUALLY MAKE SENSE WITH WHERE THE LIFT IS
GOING TO BE. WHATEVER FALLS SHOULD BE DONE BY 00Z. TEMPERATURES ARE
INTERESTING FOR TODAY. WOULD BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME SUN THIS
AFTERNOON. RAISED MAXES A LITTLE BUT THAT STILL MAY NOT BE ENOUGH.
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...LOOKS TO BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUN.
HOWEVER...SURFACE RIDGE IS NOT THAT FAR AWAY AND THE DOWNSLOPE
COMPONENT TO THE WIND IS NOT THAT STRONG. SO SIDED WITH THE
SLIGHTLY COOLER GUIDANCE. GET SOME DOWNSLOPE WARMING AND WINDS
DURING THE NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF NEXT SURFACE TROUGH/FRONT THAT WILL
MOVE THROUGH.
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE FORCES A FRONT
THROUGH EARLY IN THE DAY. BASED ON COLD AIR ADVECTION/UNFAVORABLE
WIND DIRECTION...DID TEND TOWARD THE COOLER TWO METER. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS DURING THE NIGHT SHOULD ALLOW THE TEMPERATURES TO
FALL BELOW GUIDANCE.
BULLER
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGE SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS DRY
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS ON
SATURDAY...AND ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY. DEGREE OF WARM UP SUNDAY IS STILL
IN QUESTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY REGARDING EVOLUTION OF TROUGH EXPECTED
TO ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT.
GUIDANCE COMING INTO GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF NEGATIVELY TILTED
TROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH SHOULD BRING GOOD PRECIP CHANCES TO THE
CWA SUNDAY NIGHT AND LINGERING CHANCES IN THE EASTERN CWA INTO
MONDAY. WHILE GUIDANCE IS IS GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING...THERE
ARE STILL SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM.
THE GFS IS MUCH STRONGER AND FARTHER NORTH WITH A CLOSED H5/H7
CIRCULATION ALMOST RIGHT ON TOP OF THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST
GEM/ECMWF BOTH SUPPORT MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE SOLUTION OVER THE
CWA...WITH A WEAKER CLOSED CIRCULATION OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS. THIS
AFFECTS HOW FAR NORTH A POTENTIAL DRY SLOT SETS UP...AS WELL AS HOW
MUCH COLD AIR IS IN PLACE OVER THE CWA FOR RAIN/SNOW CHANGEOVER. THE
STRONGER GFS SOLUTION WOULD ALSO ALLOW FOR MUCH HIGHER QPF AND
POTENTIAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 70. FOR NOW I HAVE BUMPED POPS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70
WHERE BEST OVERLAP BETWEEN GUIDANCE IS ON MEASURABLE PRECIP. QPF
AND POTENTIAL SNOW AMOUNTS ARE TOO DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN AT THIS
POINT...WITH A FAIRLY LARGE SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA DEPENDING ON MODEL
OF CHOICE. THIS SYSTEM IS WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON THOUGH.
DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE TEMPS SHOULD BE FAVORED ON MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE CWA IN THE
WAKE OF THE EXITING TROUGH...ASSUMING THERE ARE NO COMPLICATIONS
FROM SNOW PACK.
DR
THANKS TO ALL WHO COLLABORATED.
&&
.AVIATION...
1024 AM MST WED FEB 15 2012
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
THAT STRATUS DECK IS BEGINNING TO ERODE AT KGLD AND WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO WITH CONDITIONS RETURNING TO VFR. KMCK HAS
MANAGED TO STAY OUT OF A DECENT STRATUS DECK THIS MORNING AND WILL
REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. GUSTY NORTH WINDS
WILL SLOWLY DECREASE AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BECOMING
LIGHT OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION
BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. MIDLEVEL CLOUD DECK MAY RETURN OVERNIGHT
AS UPPER LEVEL LOW DIGS INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
PMM
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1149 AM CST WED FEB 15 2012
...UPDATE FOR NEAR TERM FORECAST AND 18Z TAFS...
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1135 AM CST WED FEB 15 2012
HAVE TRIMMED DOWN POPS SIGNIFICANTLY BASED OFF LATEST KDDC WSR-88D
TRENDS AND GUIDANCE FROM THE HRRR. FORECASTS SHOW THAT THE 700 HPA
DEFORMATION ZONE/ENHANCED OMEGA REGION WILL BECOME STRETCHED OUT/DECREASE WITH
TIME THIS AFTERNOON AND RADAR REFLECTIVITIES SHOULD WEAKEN AS A RESULT.
THEREFORE, HAVE CONFINED POPS TO THE NW HALF OF THE FA AND RAMPED DOWN
POPS QUICKLY BY 00Z.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST WED FEB 15 2012
TODAY`S FORECAST CHALLENGES CENTER AROUND POPS, WEATHER TYPES, AND
TIMING.
THE SHORT TERM MODELS, NAMELY THE HRRR AND THE NAM MODELS, DELAY
THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION IN OUR WEST AND SOUTH, BRINGING ONLY A
LITTLE RAIN/SNOW MIX TO OUR NORTHEAST COUNTIES AROUND 10Z THIS
MORNING. THEN AS A COLD FRONT RUSHES SOUTHWARD INTO OUR NORTHWEST
CWA TOWARD 18Z. THE NAM MODEL IS SIMILAR TO THE HRRR IN BRINGING
SNOW TO AN AREA NORTHWEST OF A ELKHART TO SCOTT CITY TO WAKEENEY
LINE BY 18Z, THE FARTHER EAST BY 00Z. THE EC AND GFS MODELS ARE A
LITTLE EARLIER AND MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE NAM MODEL, SO HAVE
DELAYED THE START OF PRECIP IN OUR CENTRAL ZONES UNTIL AFTER 18Z.
ALSO, LOWERED SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE SUBLETTE, DODGE CITY TO LARNED
AREAS, THINKING THERE WILL BE ENOUGH RAIN FIRST BEFORE ANY SNOW
STARTS THIS AFTERNOON TO LIMIT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. IN THE SCOTT
CITY, DIGHTON AND LAKIN AREAS, UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE
BY TONIGHT. THE FRONT MENTIONED ABOVE WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS
BOUNDARY FOR ENHANCED LIFT. THERE IS A DEFORMATION ZONE SHOWN
JUST NORTHWEST OF OUR CWA AT 18 TO 00Z BY THE ECMWF AND THE GFS
MODELS. TEMPERATURES WON`T WARM TOO MUCH TODAY, ONLY RISING TO THE
MID 30S IN OUR NORTH AND NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES, TO NEAR 40F
DEGREES FROM LARNED TO DODGE CITY TO JOHNSON CITY. OUR EXTREME
SOUTHEAST COULD RISE TO THE UPPER 40S, BEFORE THE COLD FRONT
REACHES THERE THIS EVENING.
THERE IS AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING EAST ACROSS THE
KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER. AS IT MOVES TO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY
TONIGHT, AN AREA OF WRAP AROUND COLD AIR AND MOISTURE WILL KEEP
CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW GOING IN THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST. DO NOT SEE
MUCH SNOW ACCUMULATION OUT OF THIS SITUATION, AS SUBSTANTIAL MID
AND UPPER LEVEL LIFT WILL BE TO OUR EAST. LOWERED POPS TO BELOW
SLIGHT CHANCES BY 04Z, THINKING WE WILL BE WELL TO THE WEST OF ANY
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL TO THE 17F
TO 19F DEGREE RANGE IN OUR NORTHWEST, WHERE THERE SHOULD BE A
FRESH SNOW COVER OF AROUND 1 INCH. MID 20S WILL RESULT FROM LARNED
TO DODGE CITY TO LIBERAL, WITH UPPER 20S FORECAST IN OUR
SOUTHEASTERN CWA.
I EXPECT A MOSTLY SUNNY THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FROM THE NORTH. SURFACE WINDS MAY START OUT FROM THE NORTH AT 10
TO 15 MPH, BUT SHOULD SHIFT TO THE SOUTH BY NOON AND ALLOW WARM
ADVECTION TO HELP WARM MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TO NEAR 50F DEGREES
ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER, THE MID 40S ACROSS OUR CENTRAL CWA, AND THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S IN OUR NORTHWEST WHERE A LITTLE SNOW MAY REMAIN.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST WED FEB 15 2012
PLEASANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECASTED THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE FROM THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST AND
THE SURFACE WILL GENERALLY BE DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHEN A WEAK COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA INCREASING CLOUDS AND SHIFTING WINDS TO A
NORTHERLY DIRECTION ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE
PUSHED ACROSS THE AREA WITH HELP FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. NO PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME BUT IF
FUTURE MODEL RUNS MOVE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW FURTHER NORTH THERE COULD
INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO ROWS OF
COUNTIES IN KANSAS. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S
ON FRIDAY THEN THE MID TO UPPER 40S ON SATURDAY. LOWS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNING.
MODELS ARE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT BRINGING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SATURDAY, INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND
CENTRAL ROCKIES SUNDAY, AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON MONDAY. THIS
IN TURN WILL DEVELOP SURFACE LEE TROUGHING ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO
AND SHIFT WINDS TO MORE OF A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. WINDY CONDITIONS COULD BE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY
AS THE LEE TROUGHING AND ATMOSPHERIC MIXING INCREASES ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE
SYSTEM APPROACHES WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED ON MONDAY.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL ALSO INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY,
MAINLY ACROSS NORTH AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. PRECIPITATION TYPE IS
STILL UNKNOWN BUT SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN DURING THE DAY AS
HIGHS WILL BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING. EXTENDED MODELS THEN HAVE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED. HIGHS ARE FORECASTED TO BE IN
THE LOWER TO MID 50S SUNDAY, RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID
30S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1135 AM CST WED FEB 15 2012
MODIFIED TAFS WITH A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE NW OF THE TERMINALS SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH
OF AN IMPACT IN THIS REGARD. HOWEVER, CIGS WILL REMAIN REDUCED DUE
TO FOG/STRATUS/LOWERED VIS. MOS GUIDANCE WAS SUGGESTING FOG FORMATION
FOR TOMORROW MORNING, HOWEVER, FORECAST SOUNDINGS (INCLUDING BUFKIT)
SHOW THIS SHOULD BE PATCHY/ISOLATED SO WILL DEFER TO LATER TAF
ISSUANCES DUE TO UNCERTAINTY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 39 25 47 27 / 40 20 0 0
GCK 39 20 47 25 / 60 10 0 0
EHA 43 23 49 28 / 30 0 0 0
LBL 45 24 48 26 / 20 10 0 0
HYS 37 20 45 27 / 60 30 0 0
P28 47 28 49 28 / 20 20 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SUGDEN
SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM....HOVORKA
AVIATION...SUGDEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
157 PM EST WED FEB 15 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO SPREAD MORE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
19Z RUC ANALYSIS INDICATES A WEAK 500MB RIDGE ACROSS THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY WITH MID-LEVEL MOISTURE SLIDING ACROSS THE RIDGE INTO
THE AREA. 1000-850MB MOISTURE IS BEGINNING TO FINALLY ERODE
NORTHEASTWARD WITH BREAKS IN CLOUD COVERAGE. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO THE CAROLINAS.
THIS AFTERNOON...HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA AND KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR THE
REMAINDER OF TODAY. THE RUC SUPPORTS THAT SKIES WILL GO PARTLY
CLOUDY BRIEFLY BEFORE MID-LEVEL CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. FOR
TEMPS, FORECAST IS CLOSEST TO A LAMP/HRRR BLEND WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE MID 30S NORTH OF I-80 TO THE LOWER 40S ACROSS PORTIONS OF
EASTERN OHIO AND NORTH- CENTRAL WV.
TONIGHT...THERE IS OPERATIONAL MODEL AGREEMENT THAT A MID-LEVEL SHORT
WAVE TROUGH AND ITS COINCIDENT SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS THE AREA, WITH
ISENTROPIC UPLIFT IN THE 290-300K PROVIDING FORCING FOR AN AREA OF
PRECIPITATION TO MOVE INTO THE AREA NEAR DAWN. CONSIDERING LAMP
SURFACE TEMPS ALONG WITH SREF FZRA PROBS AND GFS/NAM MODEL
SOUNDINGS, BELIEVE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN/SNOW MAY MIX IN
WITH RAIN AT THE ONSET FOR AERAS NORTHEAST OF A FRANKLIN-DUBOIS
LINE. THUS, CHC OF FREEZING RAIN IS FORECAST WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX
FOR THIS AREA. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY STEADY ACROSS THE
AREA RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR TO THE
UPPER 30S ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL WV.
THURSDAY...SURFACE TROUGH ALONG WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE
ACROSS THE AREA, PROGGED TO BE ALONG THE EASTERN RIDGES BY 00Z
FRIDAY. FORECAST IS A GFS/NAM BLEND, WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT
PROVIDING RAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AND QPF TOTALS OF A QUARTER
TO A HALF OF AN INCH. TEMPS IN THE MORNING WILL QUICKLY WARM TO
ABOVE FREEZING WITH PRECIP TYPE ALL RAIN. WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION
THROUGHOUT THE DAY WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO WARM TO 5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE EXITING EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA THURSDAY
NIGHT. TIGHTENED POP AND SKY GRADIENTS TO BE MORE DETERMINISTIC
WITH THE FORECAST. STILL EXPECTING A TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW
FOR THE MTNS N INTO DUJ THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT NO SNOW ACCUMULATION.
TRANSITORY SURFACE ANTICYCLONE YIELDS A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST OF
DRY WEATHER FRI AND SAT. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT BRINGS SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES UNDER A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE FRI AND
SAT.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
- NO SIGNS OF ARCTIC AIR
- LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE SAT NGT - SUN TIME RANGE
- AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS NEXT WEEK
LOTS OF SPREAD IN THE ENSEMBLES AS ALLUDED TO IN BULLETS ABOVE RIGHT
OUT OF THE GATE. GEFS AND NAEFS MEANS KEEP SRN PLAINS SYSTEM FROM
PHASING WITH THE NRN STREAM...THUS SHUNTING THE SFC LOW / QPF TO OUR
S AND SE. OPERATIONAL GFS PHASES THE TWO BRANCHES BRINGING LOW
PRESSURE UP E OF THE MTNS...WHICH WOULD MEAN THE POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT SNOW IN THE RIDGES S AND E OF PIT SAT NGT AND SUN.
HOWEVER...LEFT INHERITED FORECAST FOR CONSISTENCY AND LEVERAGE
ENSEMBLE MEANS WITH CHANCE POPS. PROB TOO LOW OF INCLUSION IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE WITH LESS MODEL SPREAD FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTROL OUR WEATHER AS MID LVL HEIGHTS BUILD MON AND
TUE. THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM SHOULD PASS TO OUR NW BRINGING ALL A
LIQUID PTYPE...BUT IF TIMING CHANGES AND PCPN ONSET IS DURING THE
NIGHT OR EARLY MRNG HRS...CAN NOT RULE BRIEF PERIOD OF A WINTRY
MIX. TEMPERATURES WERE CONSTRUCTED USING THE BIAS CORRECTED
MOSGUIDE.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO ERODE THIS EVENING FROM THE SOUTHWEST
AS HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE AREA AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES IN
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. AFTER 00Z, PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS CAN
BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN LIGHT AT 5-10KTS OUT OF THE W-SW SHIFTING MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA AND BRING
SHOWERS TO THE TERMINALS AFTER 06Z. THERE IS A CHANCE OF A BRIEF
PERIOD OF SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN TO MIX IN AT THE ONSET OF PRECIP
AT KDUJ, ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO MENTION IN
THE TAF. RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON, WITH CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES DROPPING BACK TO MVFR.
THE SURFACE LOW WILL PULL EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS
COMING TO AN END AS MVFR CEILINGS LINGER ACROSS THE TERMINALS.
OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
CEILING RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY BEFORE
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IN HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE
WEEKEND. ANOTHER SYSTEM PASSING TO THE SOUTHEAST MAY BRING
RESTRICTIONS SOUTHEAST OF KPIT WITH SNOW LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN VFR CONDITIONS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
1112 AM EST WED FEB 15 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. LOW PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO SPREAD MORE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE LATE MORNING ENHANCED SHORT TERM FORECAST UPDATE HAS BEEN
ISSUED TO REMOVE MORNING DRIZZLE WORDING AND TO ADD THE SCHC OF
FREEZING RAIN TOMORROW MORNING FOR AREAS NORTHEAST OF A FRANKLIN-
DUBOIS LINE.
16Z RUC ANALYSIS INDICATES A WEAK 500MB RIDGE ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY WITH MID-LEVEL MOISTURE SLIDING ACROSS THE RIDGE INTO THE AREA.
1000-850MB MOISTURE CONTINUES TO LINGER AND KEEP THE AREA CLOUDY
AS IT REMAINS TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO THE CAROLINAS.
THIS AFTERNOON...HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL SHIFT
ACROSS THE AREA AND KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF
TODAY. THE RUC SUPPORTS THAT SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY AS
STRATOCUMULUS IS SLOW TO ERODE UNDER A LINGERING INVERSION AT
850MB. EVEN IF ANY LOW-LEVEL CLOUD COVERAGE ERODES, MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WILL KEEP SKIES CLOUDY. FOR TEMPS,
FORECAST IS CLOSEST TO A LAMP/HRRR BLEND WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MID 30S NORTH OF I-80 TO THE MID 40S ACROSS PORTIONS OF
EASTERN OHIO AND NORTH-CENTRAL WV.
TONIGHT...THERE IS OPERATIONAL MODEL AGREEMENT THAT A SHORT WAVE
MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND ITS COINCIDENT SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS THE AREA, WITH
ISENTROPIC UPLIFT IN THE 290-300K PROVIDING FORCING FOR AN AREA OF
PRECIPITATION TO MOVE INTO THE AREA NEAR DAWN. CONSIDERING LAMP
SURFACE TEMPS ALONG WITH SREF WINTER PROBS AND GFS/NAM MODEL
SOUNDINGS, BELIEVE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN/SNOW MAY MIX IN
WITH RAIN AT THE ONSET FOR AERAS NORTHEAST OF A FRANKLIN-DUBOIS
LINE. THUS, SCHC OF FREEZING RAIN HAS BEEN ADDED TO RAIN/SNOW MIX
FOR THIS AREA. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY STEADY ACROSS THE
AREA RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR TO THE
UPPER 30S ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL WV.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS TRANSITION SURFACE LOW TO EASTERN GREAT LAKES DURING THE
DAY THURSDAY WITH WEAK FRONT PUSHING ACROSS REGION LATE DAY.
WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED WITH ANY MIX ACROSS THE NORTH QUICKLY
ENDING. COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BRING
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS MIXING TO SNOW SHOWERS IN THE RIDGES BEFORE
ENDING. 850MB TEMPERATURES ONLY REACH -6C AT BEST SO NO
SIGNIFICANT LAKE SNOW OR UP-SLOPE EXPECTED. DRY AND SEASONAL FRIDAY
UNDERNEATH HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GENL AGREEMENT IN DEPICTIONS OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...BEGINNING WITH SPLIT FLOW VIA TROUGHING FM THE HUDSON
BAY ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AND CLOSED LOW OVER NRN MEXICO. PTN IS
THUS OF ZONAL FLOW ACRS THE REGION FOR THE PERIOD WITH PHASING
TROUGHS OVR THE E COAST FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK.
WITH NO DEEP MSTR TAP...AND SUPPORT LACKING IN FAST MOVING
SHRTWVS IN THE CONFLUENT FLOW PROGGED OVR THE AREA...FORECAST WL
FEATURE SUB CLIMO PRECIP PROBABILITIES AND NR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND WL NOT BE FAR OFF HPC GUIDANCE.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MVFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION AT 3KFT. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE AND
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE CROSSES THE AREA. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
LIGHT AT 5-10KTS OUT OF THE W-SW SHIFTING MORE SOUTHEASTERLY LATE
IN THE TAF PERIOD WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.
OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
RESTRICTIONS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM BRINGS MAINLY RAIN TO THE REGION. RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY BEFORE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IN HIGH PRESSURE FOR
THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY BRING RESTRICTIONS
LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
426 PM EST WED FEB 15 2012
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 PM EST WED FEB 15 2012
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WITH
TROUGHING OVER THE WRN CONUS AND A FLAT RIDGE OVER THE EAST. ONE NRN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER NW MN WITH ANOTHER TRAILING
OVER SRN SASK INTO NW ND. A VIGOROUS SRN STREAM SHRTWV MOVING FROM
THE TX/OK PANHANDLE INTO SE KS. AT THE SFC...A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDED
FROM NW ONTARIO THROUGH WRN MN LEAVING LIGHT SW FLOW OVER THE NRN
GREAT LAKES. AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW FROM SRN MN INTO WRN WI WAS
SUPPORTED BY 290K-295K ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH.
TONIGHT AND THU...RADAR TRENDS AND NAM ISENTROPIC PROGS SUGGEST THAT
THE INITIAL AREAS OF PCPN WILL LIFT INTO THE SW CWA THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...WITH LITTLE INCREASE IN INTENSITY EXPECTED...ONLY
MENTIONED CHANCE POPS WITH SNOW ACCUMULATION OF A HALF INCH OR LESS.
AS THE LAGGING SHORTWAVE MOVES TOWARD THE UPPER MS
VALLEY...INCREASING 700-300 MB QVECTOR CONV WITH THE DEEPENING MID
LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALSO PROVIDE ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR AREAS OF LIGHT
SNOW. AGAIN WITH ONLY MODERATE FORCING AND MOISTURE INFLOW...KEPT
ONLY CHANCE POPS WITH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN AN INCH.
HOWEVER...OVER THE ERN CWA...SLIGHTLY GREATER MOISTURE ADVECTION AND
ISENTROPIC ASCENT SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR MORE WIDESPREAD OR SLIGHTLY
HEAVIER PCPN WITH SNOW AMOUNTS TO AROUND AN INCH.
WITH DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE MID 20S OVER THE AREA...MIN TEMPS
WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL...WITH READINGS ONLY FALLING INTO THE
MID AND UPPER 20S. CLOUDS AND LIGHT PCPN SHOULD LIMIT MAX READINGS
TO THE MID 30S.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 PM EST WED FEB 15 2012
WE START THE PERIOD 00Z FRI WITH A 600MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS OVER
THE ERN CWA...ANOTHER WEAKER SHORTWAVE OVER NRN MN...AND ANOTHER
STRONGER SHORTWAVE JUST N OF MANITOBA. THIS RESULTS IN A
BROAD...WEAK SFC LOW TO OUR NE...AND A WEAK SFC RIDGE OVER MN. WITH
NW TO WNW LOW LEVEL WINDS...850MB TEMPS AROUND -10C...AND DEEP
MOISTURE...EXPECT SOME LIGHT UPSLOPE SNOW OVER THE WRN CWA AND SOME
LIGHT LAKE ENHANCED SNOW OVER THE ERN CWA AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD.
AS THE NRN MN SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA LATE THU NIGHT...LES MAY
BECOME A LITTLE MORE ORGANIZED. BY 12Z FRI...850MB TEMPS WILL HAVE
DECREASED TO AROUND -12C WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS FROM THE NW TO WNW.
WILL DECREASE POPS SOME AFTER THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE PASSAGE AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD...THEN INCREASE POPS LATER THU NIGHT. STILL
EXPECT NOTHING MORE THAN LIGHT LES...WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF
LESS THAN AN INCH THROUGH THU NIGHT.
850MB TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY DECREASE FRI...AND BE DOWN TO
-14C BY 00Z SAT...BUT SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE THU NIGHT SHORTWAVE AND
DAYTIME MIXING WILL LEAD TO LES NOT REALLY INCREASING MUCH THROUGH
THE DAY. CHANCE POPS LOOK GOOD FOR FRIDAY IN THE NW TO WNW
SNOWBELTS...WITH AROUND AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS.
FRI NIGHT AND SAT ARE MORE COMPLEX AND UNCERTAIN AS A STRONGER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE AREA. MODELS HAVE SHOWN BOTH RUN TO
RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF
THE SHORTWAVE...WHICH HAS A BIG IMPACT ON PRECIP TIMING/COVERAGE.
BESIDES THE OBVIOUS TIMING DIFFERENCES...ONE OF THE BIGGER
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS RESULTS FROM THE STRENGTH OF THE
SYSTEM. ALL MODELS BRING A DEEPENING SFC LOW SOMEWHERE S OF THE
CWA...BUT THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW IS WHAT IS IN QUESTION. THE
12Z/15 GFS IS THE STRONGEST AND FARTHEST N WITH THE SFC LOW...WHICH
WOULD BRING A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW TO AREAS OF MENOMINEE COUNTY
AND FAR ERN UPPER MI. THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD ALSO BRING LOW LEVEL
WINDS FROM THE NNE...WHEREAS MOST OTHER MODELS SHOW NW TO NNW LOW
LEVEL WINDS...WHICH WOULD MAKES FOR BIG DIFFERENCES IN LES. WILL NOT
USE THE GFS SOLUTION SINCE IT IS MORE OF AN OUTLIER. THUS...WILL
HAVE HIGH CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY POPS IN NNW TO NW WIND SNOWBELTS FRI
NIGHT AND SAT...DIMINISHING LATE SAT AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN.
DAYS 4 THROUGH 7 (SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)...
MODELS COME INTO BRIEF AGREEMENT AGAIN ON MON WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE CWA. SFC HIGH PRESSURE E AND LOW PRESSURE W RESULTS
IN WAA OVER THE AREA...WHICH WILL ALLOW HIGHS MON TO BE IN THE MID
30S. MODELS THEN DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH SOLUTIONS FROM MON NIGHT
THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MODELS SHOWS A COUPLE OF
TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH...THE FIRST SOMETIME BETWEEN MON NIGHT
THROUGH TUE NIGHT AND THE OTHER POSSIBLY MOVING INTO THE AREA
SOMETIME LATE WED. SIGNIFICANT RUN TO RUN ERRORS AND MODEL
DISAGREEMENT MAKE FOR LOW CONFIDENCE IN MODELS PAST MON. THE PERIOD
SHOULD GENERALLY BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH RESPECT TO TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM EST WED FEB 15 2012
EXTENSIVE LOW-LVL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TRAPPED UNDER A SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ALLOWING FOR MVFR CIGS TO PERSIST
AT KIWD/KSAW. AN AREA OF CLEARING INTO THE KEWEENAW IS EXPECTED TO
FILL BACK IN WITH MVFR CIGS BY LATE AFTERNOON AS THE AREA OF
MOISTURE LIFTS SLOWLY TO THE NORTH...PER SATELLITE TRENDS AND
NAM/RUC SFC-850 MB RH FCST. TONIGHT...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO FALL INTO
THE IFR RANGE WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE AS A TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 425 PM EST WED FEB 15 2012
WRLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THE 20 TO 30 KT RANGE THU
INTO THU NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.
OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY TRANQUIL THIS WEEK.
LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE BELOW 20 KNOTS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1135 AM CST WED FEB 15 2012
.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO INCLUDE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
RATHER COMPLICATED UPPER AIR PATTERN IN PLACE WITH SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWING MULTIPLE WEATHER DISTURBANCES AFFECTING THE AREA IN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE FIRST IS A VORT NOW WEAKENING AND SHEARING
OUT OF CENTRAL MN AS IT MOVES ACROSS N WI. ASSOCIATED -SN WILL BE
NORTH OF OUR AREA BY 12Z.
A PAIR OF UPSTREAM VORTS LURK AHEAD IN THE DKTS WITH ANOTHER DIVING
SE ACROSS SASK. THE MORE WELL DEFINED DKTS FEATURE IS IN W NODAK
NEAR DIK WITH ANOTHER MOVING ACROSS W SODAK. BOTH HAVE LIGHT MIXED
PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THEM. THE 06Z NAM HAS PRETTY GOOD PLACEMENT OF
BOTH OF THESE. SOME CONCERN FOR THE MORNING HOURS THAT THE SOUTHERN
FEATURE MAY CARRY SOME LIGHT MIXED PCPN INTO OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES...WHICH HRRR HAS BEEN ADVERTISING LAST FEW RUNS. PROGGED
SOUNDINGS SHOW TEMP PROFILE WARM ENUF FOR LIQUID AT LEAST AS FAR N
AS THE MVE AREA. IF PCPN HOLDS OFF UNTIL AROUND 15Z...SHUD BE MAINLY
--RA AND --SN...BUT IF IT MOVES IN PRIOR TO THAT HAVE RISK OF --ZR.
WITH LOWER LEVELS TAKING SOME TIME TO SATURATE...WON`T MENTION THE
ZR THREAT. DURING THE AFTN THE BETTER FORCING THEN FOCUSED MORE TO
OUR NORTH AS NODAK VORT LIFTS ACROSS N MN. CONFINED PCPN THEN TO
JUST A S/C -SN IN SOME CENTRAL MN COUNTIES. WEDGE OF CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ATTM WILL BE FILLING IN DURING THE MORNING
AS UPSTREAM SYSTEMS APPROACH AREA.
FOR TONIGHT...KEPT SMALL CHANCE OF --SN IN EASTERN AREAS...BUT FOCUS
OF ANY SIG PCPN WILL BE WELL TO OUR SOUTH AS SHORTWAVE NOW IN NEW
MEXICO LIFTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
A LITTLE COOLER ON THURSDAY ACROSS EASTERN AREAS AS NW WINDS BRING
IN A BIT OF COOLING BEHIND THE WEAK SURFACE TROF MOVING THRU TODAY.
IN THE WEST...WEST WINDS AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM ALREADY BEGIN TO PULL
WARMER AIR BACK IN. MILD THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SW WINDS AHEAD OF
SURFACE LOW DROPPING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO SW MN. NAM AN OUTLIER
WITH SYSTEM DROPPING ACROSS THE AREA MUCH FASTER AND SFC WINDS NW
ACROSS AREA BY 12Z FRIDAY. RETAINED CURRENT DRY FCST...BUT 00Z
ECMWF IS SQUIRTING OUT SOME LIGHT QPF MAINLY SW OF MN RIVER INTO SC
MN ON FRIDAY. A BIT COOLER ON SATURDAY BEHIND THIS SYSTEM. LOW
TEMPS SATURDAY MORNING WITH BE TRICKY WITH MODELS SHOWING A FAIRLY
WIDE RANGE IN POSITION OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RANGING FROM SE MN ON
NAM TO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS ON THE GFS.
JURY STILL OUT ON THE MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT SYSTEM. GFS HAS PROBABLY
BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT SHOWING POSSIBLE PCPN OF SIGNIFICANCE...BUT
00Z ECMWF IS BEGINNING TO TREND BACK TOWARD THE GFS. TRIMMED BACK ON
THE AREA OF MIXED PCPN WITH MODEL TRENDS NOW FAVORING SURFACE LOW
TRACK MORE ACROSS IOWA.
&&
.AVIATION.../18Z TAF ISSUANCE/
WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH CROSSING THE REGION THIS AFTN WITH A LOW
PRES CENTER CROSSING FROM NE NEBRASKA INTO NW IOWA HAS A BATCH OF
PRECIP AND MVFR CIGS AHEAD OF IT THAT WILL GRADUALLY PUSH THROUGH
ALL TAF SITES THIS AFTN AND EVE. PRECIP IS LIGHT AND SPLOTCHY
WHERE IT IS BEING REPORTED SO AM NOT LOOKING FOR A GREAT REDUCTION
IN VSBY WHILE CIGS WILL LIKELY DROP INTO THE MVFR RANGE FOR A FEW
HOURS. PRECIP CHCS ARE TOO LOW AND PRECIP INTENSITY IS TOO LOW TO
GO WITH ANYTHING MORE BONAFIDE THAN VCSH SO AM THINKING THE VC
MENTION SHOULD WORK QUITE WELL IN THIS CASE. ONCE THE PRECIP
ENDS...CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY RISE AND THIN OUT...LEADING TO
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY TMRW. WITH
LIGHTER WINDS AND GOOD CLEARING...THERE IS A CHC THAT THE MORE
FAVORABLE FOG SITES /INCLUDING KEAU AND KRNH/ MAY HAVE SOME MVFR
VSBY DURING THE PRE- DAWN HOURS.
MSP...NOT MANY CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS TAF SET OTHER THAN TWEAKING
THE TIMING OF VCSH AND TO INCLUDE A TEMPO PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS WITH
THE OVERHEAD MOVEMENT OF THE PRECIP ACRS THE FIELD. NOT EXPECTING
ANY CIGS BELOW 2 KFT THROUGHOUT THIS EVENT. CONDS IMPROVE BY LATE
EVENING TO VFR. HAVE BROUGHT VSBY DOWN TO 6SM TO INDICATE THE CHC
THAT VSBY COULD DROP INTO MVFR RANGE BUT AM NOT EXPECTING IT ATTM.
VFR CONDS THEN PREVAIL THRU TMRW.
OUTLOOK...
/THU/...VFR.
/FRI/...A WEAK LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL DROP THROUGH BUT WITH
NEGLIGIBLE EFFECTS. VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL BUT SOME MVFR CIGS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ESP OVER ERN MN INTO WRN WI.
/SAT-SUN/...VFR.
/MON/...DEGRADED CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AS AN ORGANIZED STORM SYSTEM
DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND MOVES THROUGH THE PLAINS. MUCH
UNCERTAINTY WITH TRACK AND IMPACTS ATTM.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
JPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GLASGOW MT
936 AM MST WED FEB 15 2012
.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
SENT AN UPDATE THIS MORNING TO ADD SOME FLURRIES AS REPORTED THIS
MORNING FROM A PHONE CALL TO SCOBEY. AS THE HRRR MODEL PERFORMED
SO WELL YESTERDAY AND CURRENT RADAR TRENDS ARE HEADING THAT
WAY...I FELT IT WAS BEST TO BRING IN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW FOR
OUR NORTHEAST ZONES THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWING THE HRRR MODEL
SOLUTION. EXPECT THE SNOW FIELD GRADIENT TO HAVE AN EFFECT ON THE
TEMPERATURES TODAY. BARE GROUND NEAR WINNETT MAY REACH 40 DEGREES
WHILE MALTA AND GLASGOW WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 30 DEGREES.
AFTERNOON WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL BE A LITTLE BREEZY.
BMICKELSON
PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...UPPER TROF DIPPING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING. SHORTWAVE WHICH BROUGHT THE SNOWFALL
ALONG THE MILK/MISSOURI RIVER YESTERDAY MOVING THROUGH NORTH
DAKOTA WITH SNOW ENDING ACROSS THE REGION. SKIES CLEARING BEHIND
THIS WAVE HAS RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES DROPPING SIGNIFICANTLY
THIS MORNING. SOME MID LEVEL CLOUD MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN ZONES
WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PUSHING THROUGH SASKATCHEWAN THIS MORNING.
OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR NOT INDICATING ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
SECOND SHORTWAVE SO JUST ANTICIPATING CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST ZONES. OTHER CONCERN FOR TODAY IS TEMPERATURES DUE TO
THE FRESH SNOWFALL. STARTING OUT VERY COLD AND SUNSHINE WILL ALSO
BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED OVER THE REGION THAT RECEIVED THE SNOW SO
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE SLOWER TO RECOVER.
A THIRD SHORTWAVE DROPS ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA ON THURSDAY. THIS
WAVE PHASES WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PUSHING OUT OF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST THAT DROPS ACROSS WESTERN MONTANA THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS
PACIFIC WAVE COULD PRODUCE SOME PRECIPITATION OVER CENTRAL MONTANA
WHILE THE CENTRAL CANADIAN WAVE PUSHES MOST OF ITS MOISTURE INTO
NORTH DAKOTA. THIS SHOULD KEEP MOST OF NORTHEAST MONTANA DRY
THROUGH FRIDAY. EACH OF THESE WAVES BRING COLD AIR INTO THE REGION
SO NOT EXPECTING QUICK SNOWMELT...AND THUS SNOW COVER WILL LIKELY
BE IMPACTING TEMPERATURES OVER THE NORTH. EBERT
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
ALL OF CENTRAL MONTANA. FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES ONSHORE OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST PUSHING THE UPPER RIDGE EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THIS UPPER LOW BECOMES MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE WHICH WILL
SPLIT AND SEND THE MORE ACTIVE PART OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. THE NORTHERN PART OF THIS OPEN WAVE WILL CROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND IT WILL TRIGGER SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS NEMONT SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. LOOKS LIKE
ANOTHER INCH OR TWO OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT KEPT POPS IN THE
LOWER CHANCE RANGE FOR NOW.
MODELS TAKE THE SOUTHERN PART OF THIS UPPER WAVE INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS BY MONDAY AND IT BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED. IT LOOKS AS
THOUGH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE TOO FAR TO THE SOUTH TO EFFECT WEATHER
ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA.
GENERALLY THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
REST OF THE EXTENDED AND NORTHEAST MONTANA SEEMS PINNED BETWEEN A
RIDGING INFLUENCE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND CONTINUED TROUGHING OVER
THE GREAT LAKES. THIS MEANS EASTERN MONTANA WILL BE IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW WITH DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THIS FLOW FROM MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE ALL DIFFERENT ON TIMING OF
THESE WAVES BUT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE A PERIOD
THAT THE MODELS ARE IN SOME AGREEMENT FOR MORE LIGHT SNOWFALL. SO
ADDED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO THIS TIME FRAME. RSMITH
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR. SCATTERED TO BROKEN CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
A BRIEF FLURRY MAY OCCUR NORTHEAST OF THE TAF SITES...POSSIBLY
SNEAKING INTO THE SIDNEY AREA. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE A BIT
THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 TO 15 KTS. JAMBA
&&
.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1142 AM CST WED FEB 15 2012
.AVIATION...
A FEW AREAS OF PATCHY FOG REMAIN OVER THE AREA BUT OVERALL
VISIBILITIES WILL BE MVFR TO VFR. KLNK WILL HAVE BEST CHANCE AT
ANY RAIN SO DID INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP IN FOR THIS AFTERNOON. WILL
MONITOR RADAR TRENDS FOR KOMA BUT RAIN LOOKS TO REMAIN WEST OF THE
AIRPORT FOR NOW. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH MAINLY MID
CLOUDS OVERHEAD. LIGHT NORTHWEST TO WEST SFC WINDS MAY KEEP FOG
POTENTIAL DOWN OVERNIGHT.
KERN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 647 AM CST WED FEB 15 2012/
UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR SHORT-LIVED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREEZING RAIN
NERN NEBRASKA AND DENSE FOG ADVISORY SWRN ZONES
DISCUSSION...
BAND OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN SPREADING ACROSS NERN ZONES ASSOCIATED
WITH UPPER TROUGH SWINGING THRU DAKOTAS/NRN NEBRASKA WAS CREATING
ICE COVERED ROADS/BLACK ICE ACCORDING TO NEDOR. ISSUED A SHORT-
LIVED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. IN ADDITION...LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH OVER EXISTING SNOW COVER WILL
PROBABLY ONLY INCREASE COVERAGE OF DENSEST FOG SWRN ZONES SO WENT
AHEAD AND ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY THAT AREA. AS FRONT
APPROACHES...BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHOULD TURN MORE N/NE HALTING
THE MOISTURE ADVECTION. ALSO MENTIONED A LITTLE FREEZING RAIN
POSSIBLE FAR S AS LIGHT RETURNS MOVE INTO FAR SE NEBR.
CHERMOK
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 518 AM CST WED FEB 15 2012/
AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KOMA AND KLNK. COMPLEX AVIATION SCENARIO
SHAPING UP FOR THE FIRST PART OF TODAY AT LEAST. IFR CONDITIONS IN
STRATUS/FOG WERE SPREADING INTO FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA SW OF KLNK AS
OF 15/11Z. IN ADDITION...PATCHY FOG WAS OBSERVED NORTHEAST OF THE
LOW CLOUDS BUT SOUTHEAST OF A MID CLOUD DECK THAT CONTAINED SCATTERED
LIGHT RAIN OR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN SHOWERS ADVANCING ACROSS
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. THIS LIGHT PRECIP SHOULD BE CONFINED TO KOFK
TAF EARLY THIS MORNING AND THE LOW CLOUD ADVANCE SHOULD MAKE IT TO
KLNK. WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS RELAXING AND POSSIBLY SHIFTING TO
NERLY...NEWD DEVELOPMENT/ADVECTION OF LOW CLOUDS INTO KOMA
QUESTIONABLE BUT SOME WERE INCLUDED IN 12Z TAF FORECAST. A FRONT
PUSHING THROUGH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WILL CROSS TAF SITES LATER TODAY
AND A PERIOD OF LOW CLOUDS IS POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT...ALTHOUGH
THEY COULD TEND TO MIX OUT WITH HEATING. OVERALL A CHANGEABLE
FORECAST WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF LOWER CIGS/VSBYS.
CHERMOK
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 AM CST WED FEB 15 2012/
DISCUSSION...
VARIABLE SKY COVER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AT 08Z WITH PATCHY
DENSE FOG REPORTED OVER EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA AT KAHQ AND AROUND
KOLU. CLOUDS ENCROACHING FROM THE WEST AND SOUTH AND SHOULD
OVERSPREAD THE AREA BY 12Z. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP STILL LOOKS
TO BE OVER SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA...GENERALLY SOUTH OF I80
AFTER 12Z. TIMING HOWEVER MAY BE A PROBLEM AS LATEST RUC FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW LIMITED MID LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH MID MORNING
ALONG THE KANSAS BORDER THERE. HAVE LIMITED CHANCE POPS IN THAT
AREA THROUGH THE MORNING IN LINE WITH BOTH THE GFS AND NAM. BASED
ON THIS START TIME SHOULD SEE MAINLY RAIN THIS MORNING. AREA OF
RAIN THEN SPREADS NORTH FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH CHANCE POPS TO JUST
SOUTH OF THE OMAHA AREA INTO LINCOLN AND SOUTHWEST CORNER OF IOWA.
A CHANCE OF MIXED RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN IN THE EVENING FOR FAR
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST CORNER OF IOWA BEFORE PRECIP
SLIDES EAST AND ENDS. NO HEADLINES ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
LOOKS DRY AFTER THAT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH MODELS DIFFER
IN TIMING OF CLIPPER AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THAT COMES ACROSS
THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH THE GFS STRONGER WITH ITS FEATURES THAN
THE NAM OR EURO.
UPPER RIDGING MOVES INTO THE REGION EARLY IN THE EXTENDED WITH
SOMEWHAT WARMER TEMPERATURES BUT FAIRLY STRONG WAVE FOLLOWS FAST
ON ITS HEELS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. GFS AGAIN STRONGER THAN THE
EURO WITH THIS SYSTEM SO LOW CONFIDENCE WITH TIMING AND TRACK.
TIMING ISSUES THEN CONTINUE BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
FOBERT
AVIATION... 06Z TAF FOR KOMA...KLNK AND KOFK.
FOG WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THE TAF SITES...AND PRIMARILY
AT KLNK/KOMA. MID CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED THE AREA WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOG TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP...ALREADY 5
MILES AT KLNK. DROPPED VISIBILITY TO 5 MILES WITH IFR CEILINGS
DEVELOPING... BUT BELIEVE CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY 15Z WITH
JUST SOME HAZE AFTER THAT. REGARDING PRECIPITATION...BELIEVE
PRECIP MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE KS/NE BORDER REGION...BUT HAVE DOUBTS
THAT IT WOULD MAKE IT AS FAR NORTH AS KLNK/KOMA. ALSO FORECAST A
WIND SHIFT...FROM GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE...TO NORTH
NORTHWEST...INITIALLY AT KOFK AT 16Z...THEN AT AT KLNK/KOMA BY
ABOUT 20Z.
DEWALD
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
316 PM EST WED FEB 15 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVERHEAD TODAY THEN SHIFT EAST TONIGHT. A WEAK
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 215 PM WEDNESDAY...
THE SKIES CONTINUED SUNNY THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINED
IN CONTROL (CENTERED OVER VA/NC/SC). HIGHS 60-65 THIS AFTERNOON WITH
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE SIGNIFICANT CLOUDINESS WILL
DEVELOP/OVERSPREAD OUR REGION LATER TONIGHT. THIS WILL GIVE MOST
AREAS A CHANCE AT EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING DURING THE EVENING
BEFORE THE CLOUDS BECOME THICK ENOUGH TO SLOW THE COOLING PROCESS.
LOWS SHOULD OCCUR BETWEEN LATE EVENING AND 200 AM TO 400 AM...
BEFORE LEVELING OFF. THE CURRENT PATTERN OF THE SKIES REMAINING
CLEAR LONGER IN THE EAST FAVORS A NON-CLIMATOLOGICAL GEOGRAPHICAL
PRESENTATION OF MINIMUM TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT... WITH READINGS
30-35 IN THE NE AROUND ROCKY MOUNT AND HALIFAX... TO READINGS AT OR
POSSIBLY ABOVE 40 IN THE YADKIN VALLEY OF THE WESTERN PIEDMONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 215 PM WEDNESDAY...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN RAIN ON THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE IN AMOUNT.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT IN THE FORECAST OF THE CURRENT
MID-UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING OUT OF TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA.
CONVECTION HAS BEEN BLOSSOMING OVER SE TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
HAS BEEN HANDLED WELL THUS FAR BY THE 12Z GFS. ALL MODELS GENERALLY
SHOW THE MID-UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSING QUICKLY ENE TOWARD OUR REGION
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE AFOREMENTIONED 12Z/GFS HAS PICKED UP ON
THE CONVECTION FLARING UP ALREADY OVER SE TEXAS... AND HAS THIS
CONVECTION SPREADING ENE ACROSS MS/AL AND GA OVERNIGHT THROUGH
12Z/THU. FROM THERE... MODELS DIVERGE ON POP/QPF OVER NC THURSDAY.
THE LATEST GFS AND NOW THE LATEST EUROPEAN MODELS DEPICT ALMOST
DOUBLE THE QPF OR RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS MUCH OF OUR REGION THAN
THE 12Z/NAM WITH THE EVENT. YET... THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS IN
PARTICULAR THE SPC WRF AND THE HRRR DEPICT MINIMAL QPF OVER CENTRAL
NC. THIS LACK OF QPF MAY BE THE WAY TO GO GIVEN THE NCEP MODELS
TYPICAL FAILURE IN CAPTURING GULF COAST CONVECTION AND ITS ROLE IN
DISRUPTING MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE CAROLINAS UPSTREAM.
HOWEVER... THE LATEST EURO SUPPORTS HEAVIER QPF ACROSS CENTRAL NC
WITH THE CONVECTION FALLING APART AS IT SWEEPS ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH
LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. WITH THIS IN MIND... WE WILL KEEP CURRENT
CATEGORICAL POP IN PLACE... AND CONTINUE TO FORECAST RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF AROUND 0.25. IF CONVECTION DOES NOT SPREAD EAST ACROSS
GA... AND THE DEEP MOISTURE TRANSPORT (35-45KT SSW FLOW 925-850MB)
IN THE MODELS IS NOT DISRUPTED... THEN QPF OF UP TO A HALF INCH
WOULD BE LIKELY. HIGHS SHOULD SHOW QUITE A RANGE WITH SOME LIGHT
RAIN IN THE WEST EARLY... KEEPING HIGHS IN THE 50-55 RANGE. HIGHS
SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 60S AROUND FAY TO GSB.
THURSDAY NIGHT... SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST WITH THE TROUGH...
BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LAG PER THE LATEST MODELS. DEPENDING ON
IF THE GROUND GETS WET OR NOT... FOG WILL/WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE. IF
WE SQUEEZE OUT 0.10 OR SO... THEN FOG WILL BE LIKELY. OTHERWISE...
PARTLY CLOUDY WITH LOWS 35-40.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT:
A DEAMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE PROGRESSING EAST THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC
ON THU (AND ITS ATTENDANT SFC LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE CAROLINAS)
WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THU NIGHT. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES EVERYWHERE BY 12Z
FRI MORNING AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE W/NW.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC/CAROLINAS
FROM DURING THE DAY FRI...AND IS PROGGED TO BE CENTERED NEAR THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY 12Z SAT. UNIFORM/FLAT FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED
OVER THE CAROLINAS FRI THROUGH FRI NIGHT. WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND...
EXPECT SUNNY SKIES DURING THE DAY FRI. 1000-850 MB THICKNESSES ARE
PROGGED TO RANGE FROM 1335-1345 METERS N-S ON FRIDAY...SUGGESTING
HIGHS RANGING FROM 59-65F OR SO...WARMEST NEAR THE SC BORDER. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN DEVELOPING IN VICINITY OF THE
TX GULF COAST LATE FRI NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY CURRENTLY
PROGRESSING SOUTH THROUGH CA/NV AMPLIFIES INTO A CLOSED UPPER LOW
AND STARTS TRACKING EAST TOWARD WESTERN TX. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME
UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER COULD MOVE INTO THE CAROLINAS DOWNSTREAM OF
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED ALONG THE GULF COAST STATES LATE FRI NIGHT...
HOWEVER...THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT MOST OF THE
INCREASE IN MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER
SUNRISE SAT (WHEN PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO BLOSSOM OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH)...WITH MINIMAL IMPACT ON LOW TEMPS. WILL FCST LOWS RANGING
FROM THE LOWER/MID 30S TO UPPER 30S SAT MORNING...COLDEST IN THE
TYPICAL SHELTERED/LOW-LYING AREAS...PARTICULARLY IN EAST/NE PORTIONS
OF THE AREA.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT:
SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY PERSISTS W/REGARD TO THE EVOLUTION OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED STORM SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS FROM THE TX GULF COAST
THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH AND INTO THE CAROLINAS/MID-ATLANTIC THIS
WEEKEND. THE OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE HAVING A VERY DIFFICULT TIME
DETERMINING HOW MUCH (IF ANY) PHASING WILL OCCUR BETWEEN THE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING EASTWARD FROM TX INTO THE DEEP SOUTH
SAT/SAT NIGHT AND NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING SOUTHEAST
FROM WESTERN CANADA THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES INTO THE
TN/OH VALLEYS. EXACTLY HOW THE NORTHERN/SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
ENERGY INTERACTS WILL IN LARGE PART DETERMINE THE SUBSEQUENT
EVOLUTION OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER AND OFFSHORE THE CAROLINAS
THIS WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME...THE ECMWF IS STILL THE PREFERRED MODEL
OF CHOICE GIVEN ITS CONSISTENCY AND BETTER TRACK RECORD...ALTHOUGH
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY PERSISTS EVEN WITH THE ECMWF DUE TO THE
COMPLEX NATURE OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AND THAT SOME OF THE KEY
FEATURES WILL NOT BE SAMPLED WELL BY THE RAOB NETWORK UNTIL LATER
THIS WEEK. WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND...ASIDE FROM INTRODUCING PRECIP
CHANCES FROM SW-NE SATURDAY AFTERNOON (A BIT EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY
INDICATED)...WILL MAKE FEW CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY:
THERE IS REASONABLE AGREEMENT AMONG THE LONG TERM MODELS THAT DRY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE CAROLINAS IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEPARTING THE CAROLINA COAST SUN/SUN NIGHT...AND AT
THIS TIME EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS NEAR
NORMAL IN THE LOWER/MID 50S...WITH LOWS MON NIGHT IN THE LOWER 30S.
UNCERTAINTY GROWS AGAIN BY MID-WEEK IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED.
AT THIS TIME...WILL KEEP THE FCST DRY ON TUE WITH HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY SHIFTING OFFSHORE THE CAROLINAS. A WARM/MOIST SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP BY TUE NIGHT/WED AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OFFSHORE IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM PROGGED TO APPROACH THE
AREA BY MID-WEEK...AND WILL INTRODUCE A 30% CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON
WED. -VINCENT
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 115 PM WEDNESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST UNDER HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THIS
EVENING. OVERNIGHT... VFR OVERCAST CONDITIONS WILL OVERSPREAD OUR
REGION OVERNIGHT. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AROUND 10Z-13Z IN THE
WEST... THEN SPREAD EAST DURING THE DAY. CIGS/VSBYS WILL BECOME IFR
WITH RAIN AND FOG MUCH OF THE DAY THURSDAY.
OUTLOOK: AREAS OF MVFR THEN IFR FOG IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AFTER
THE CIGS LIFT IN THE EVENING. AREAS OF FOG EARLY FRIDAY WILL BECOME
VFR VSBYS BY 15Z.
THERE IS INCREASING CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH IFR CIGS/VSBYS AS
ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES OUR REGION SAT-SUN.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...BADGETT
SHORT TERM...BADGETT
LONG TERM...VINCENT
AVIATION...BADGETT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
215 PM EST WED FEB 15 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVERHEAD TODAY THEN SHIFT EAST TONIGHT. A WEAK
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 215 PM WEDNESDAY...
THE SKIES CONTINUED SUNNY THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINED
IN CONTROL (CENTERED OVER VA/NC/SC). HIGHS 60-65 THIS AFTERNOON WITH
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE SIGNIFICANT CLOUDINESS WILL
DEVELOP/OVERSPREAD OUR REGION LATER TONIGHT. THIS WILL GIVE MOST
AREAS A CHANCE AT EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING DURING THE EVENING
BEFORE THE CLOUDS BECOME THICK ENOUGH TO SLOW THE COOLING PROCESS.
LOWS SHOULD OCCUR BETWEEN LATE EVENING AND 200 AM TO 400 AM...
BEFORE LEVELING OFF. THE CURRENT PATTERN OF THE SKIES REMAINING
CLEAR LONGER IN THE EAST FAVORS A NON-CLIMATOLOGICAL GEOGRAPHICAL
PRESENTATION OF MINIMUM TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT... WITH READINGS
30-35 IN THE NE AROUND ROCKY MOUNT AND HALIFAX... TO READINGS AT OR
POSSIBLY ABOVE 40 IN THE YADKIN VALLEY OF THE WESTERN PIEDMONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 215 PM WEDNESDAY...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN RAIN ON THURSDAY... LOW CONFIDENCE IN AMOUNT.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT IN THE FORECAST OF THE CURRENT
MID-UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING OUT OF TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA.
CONVECTION HAS BEEN BLOSSOMING OVER SE TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
HAS BEEN HANDLED WELL THUS FAR BY THE 12Z GFS. ALL MODELS GENERALLY
SHOW THE MID-UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSING QUICKLY ENE TOWARD OUR REGION
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE AFOREMENTIONED 12Z/GFS HAS PICKED UP ON
THE CONVECTION FLARING UP ALREADY OVER SE TEXAS... AND HAS THIS
CONVECTION SPREADING ENE ACROSS MS/AL AND GA OVERNIGHT THROUGH
12Z/THU. FROM THERE... MODELS DIVERGE ON POP/QPF OVER NC THURSDAY.
THE LATEST GFS AND NOW THE LATEST EUROPEAN MODELS DEPICT ALMOST
DOUBLE THE QPF OR RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS MUCH OF OUR REGION THAN
THE 12Z/NAM WITH THE EVENT. YET... THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS IN
PARTICULAR THE SPC WRF AND THE HRRR DEPICT MINIMAL QPF OVER CENTRAL
NC. THIS LACK OF QPF MAY BE THE WAY TO GO GIVEN THE NCEP MODELS
TYPICAL FAILURE IN CAPTURING GULF COAST CONVECTION AND ITS ROLE IN
DISRUPTING MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE CAROLINAS UPSTREAM.
HOWEVER... THE LATEST EURO SUPPORTS HEAVIER QPF ACROSS CENTRAL NC
WITH THE CONVECTION FALLING APART AS IT SWEEPS ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH
LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. WITH THIS IN MIND... WE WILL KEEP CURRENT
CATEGORICAL POP IN PLACE... AND CONTINUE TO FORECAST RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF AROUND 0.25. IF CONVECTION DOES NOT SPREAD EAST ACROSS
GA... AND THE DEEP MOISTURE TRANSPORT (35-45KT SSW FLOW 925-850MB)
IN THE MODELS IS NOT DISRUPTED... THEN QPF OF UP TO A HALF INCH
WOULD BE LIKELY. HIGHS SHOULD SHOW QUITE A RANGE WITH SOME LIGHT
RAIN IN THE WEST EARLY... KEEPING HIGHS IN THE 50-55 RANGE. HIGHS
SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 60S AROUND FAY TO GSB.
THURSDAY NIGHT... SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST WITH THE TROUGH...
BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LAG PER THE LATEST MODELS. DEPENDING ON
IF THE GROUND GETS WET OR NOT... FOG WILL/WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE. IF
WE SQUEEZE OUT 0.10 OR SO... THEN FOG WILL BE LIKELY. OTHERWISE...
PARTLY CLOUDY WITH LOWS 35-40.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 250 AM...
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE COVERS THE EAST COAST. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES AT LEAST
FIFTEEN METERS ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WEAK DOWNSLOPE FLOW
SHOULD MARGINALLY RAISE TEMPERATURES IN THE WEST. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES 61 TO 65. LIGHT WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT AND A LITTLE
INCREASE IN AIR COLUMN MOISTURE OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID 30S WITH COLDEST SPOTS BELOW FREEZING.
THE POTENTIAL FOR A WEEKEND PRECIPITATION EVENT CONTINUES IN THE
MODELS WITH A WIDE DIVERGENCE IN SOLUTIONS. A SHORT WAVE DROPPING
SOUTH INTO THE GREAT BASIN THIS MORNING IS FORECAST TO REACH WEST
TEXAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON BY THE ECMWF AND GFS... BUT TIMINGS IS SLOWER
WITH THE NAM AND CANADIAN. THE WELL INLAND TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW
ON THE GFS IS NOT CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED AND A SOLUTION CLOSER TO
THE 00Z NAM AND ECMWF WILL BE FOLLOWED. FORECAST OF A DRY SATURDAY
WITH CHANCE POPS WELLING UP FROM THE SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT
ACCEPTED... AND FIFTY PERCENT RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY.
SEE NO REASON TO ALTER A FORECAST OF RAIN FOR THIS SYSTEM. COLD AIR
WILL NOT BE IN PLACE PRIOR TO THE SYSTEMS ARRIVAL AND ANY COLD AIR
WOULD HAVE TO BE PULLED DOWN BY THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND THIS IS
A SCENARIO FOR COLD AIR CHASING EXITING MOISTURE. FREEZING LEVELS
COULD POTENTIALLY BE LOW ENOUGH AS THE LAST BIT OF RAIN EXITS TO
ALLOW FOR SOMETHING OTHER THAN RAIN. GIVEN THE MODEL UNCERTAINTY...
KNOWN MODEL COLD BIAS AND THE SCENARIO ABOVE FAVORING RAIN... THAT
FORECAST WILL CONTINUE. DRIER AND COLDER BEHIND THE EXITING LOW FOR
MONDAY... WITH TEMPERATURES RECOVERING TUESDAY.
CLOUDS WILL INTERFERE WITH INSOLATION SATURDAY... AND MID TO UPPER
50S FORECAST FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES. FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES OF
MID 40S TO LOWER 50S SUNDAY REFLECT A TEN DEGREE DIURNAL RISE FROM
MORNING LOWS... AND WOULD BE TOO WARM IF WIDESPREAD RAINS OCCUR BY
MID MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR 50 NORTHEAST TO NEAR 55
SOUTHWEST MONDAY... UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S TUESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID 30S FRIDAY NIGHT... WARMING TO MID 30S TO LOWER 40S
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE FOR RAIN. LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO MID 30S SOUTHEAST SUNDAY
NIGHT... LOW TO MID 30S MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 115 PM WEDNESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST UNDER HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THIS
EVENING. OVERNIGHT... VFR OVERCAST CONDITIONS WILL OVERSPREAD OUR
REGION OVERNIGHT. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AROUND 10Z-13Z IN THE
WEST... THEN SPREAD EAST DURING THE DAY. CIGS/VSBYS WILL BECOME IFR
WITH RAIN AND FOG MUCH OF THE DAY THURSDAY.
OUTLOOK: AREAS OF MVFR THEN IFR FOG IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AFTER
THE CIGS LIFT IN THE EVENING. AREAS OF FOG EARLY FRIDAY WILL BECOME
VFR VSBYS BY 15Z.
THERE IS INCREASING CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH IFR CIGS/VSBYS AS
ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES OUR REGION SAT-SUN.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...BADGETT
SHORT TERM...BADGETT
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...BADGETT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1034 AM CST WED FEB 15 2012
.DISCUSSION...
16 UTC WSR-88D RADARS STILL SHOWING TWO AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW
ASSOCIATED WITH COMPACT VORT MOVING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ND. THE
FIRST IS ACROSS THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN AND THE SECOND IS ENTERING
THE SOUTHERN VALLEY. THERE HAVE A BEEN A COUPLE REPORTS OF
VISIBILITY TO 1 SM ACROSS THE NORTH...SO WILL KEEP POPS IN THE 60
TO 80 PERCENT RANGE THROUGH THE DAY. ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE AN
INCH OR LESS. FARTHER SOUTH...DID INCREASE POPS INTO THE CHANCE
CATEGORY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON GIVEN STRONGER ECHOES ENTERING
RANSOM/SARGENT/RICHLAND COUNTIES. LATEST HRRR SEEMS TO BE HANDLING
THIS AREA OF SNOW THE BEST AND BRINGS IT ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MN
THIS AFTERNOON. ANY ACCUMULATION HERE SHOULD ALSO BE LESS THAN AN
INCH.
CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP A LID ON TEMPERATURES WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOW-LEVEL MELTING
LAYER IS QUITE SHALLOW...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH ALL SNOW FOR
PRECIPITATION TYPE. OVERALL...FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH NO
MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH WILL BRING SOME MVFR CEILINGS
AND -SN TO MAINLY THE NORTHERN CWA TODAY. KDVL WILL GO DOWN BELOW
VFR IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...WITH KGFK AND POSSIBLY KTVF AND KBJI
AFFECTED. THE SNOW COULD BRING VIS DOWN TO AROUND 1 TO 2SM AT
TIMES...BUT THINK THAT IT WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND WILL COVER WITH
TEMPO GROUPS. CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR BY THIS EVENING AS
THE SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. WINDS WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY
FROM THE WEST AT 12 KTS OR LESS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 AM CST WED FEB 15 2012/
SHORT TERM...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MULTIPLE CIRCULATIONS
APPROACHING THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ECMWF HAS DONE BEST
WITH TEMPS AND PRECIP OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS AND WILL FOLLOW
FOR DETAILS. FIRST UPPER CIRCULATION ABOUT TO EXIT THE SE FA...BUT
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE MINOR ACCUMULATION THROUGH
12Z HERE.
NEXT UPPER TROUGH WITH A FEW CIRCULATIONS WILL AFFECT THE FA TODAY.
RADAR SHOWS TWO MAIN AREAS OF PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVES ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...ONE AREA ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
AND ANOTHER ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. THE NORTHERN AREA OF
PRECIP (SNOW) WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN FA (ALONG AND NORTH OF
A NEW ROCKFORD TO GRAND FORKS TO BAUDETTE LINE). THINKING UP TO AN
INCH OF SNOWFALL ACROSS THIS AREA...AND INCREASED POPS INTO THE
LIKELY/DEFINITE RANGE. NOT QUITE SURE WHAT IS GOING TO OCCUR SOUTH
OF THIS AREA. HRRR/ECMWF INDICATES THAT THE SOUTHERN AREA OF
PRECIP WILL PROPAGATE TO THE NORTHEAST...AND AFFECT THE SOUTHERN
FA TODAY. INSERTED 20 POPS AND WILL MONITOR RADAR/OBS FOR FUTURE
UPDATES. P-TYPE SHOULD BE SNOW GIVEN ANY ABOVE FREEZING LAYER WILL
BE VERY SHALLOW NEAR THE GROUND. CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIMIT MAX
TEMPS TODAY...BUT GIVEN WARM START LOW-MID 30S ARE OBTAINABLE.
SNOW WILL LINGER ACROSS THE NE FA OVERNIGHT. THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR CLEARING ACROSS THE WESTERN FA...WITH MIN TEMPS INTO THE
TEENS. OTHERWISE...MIN TEMPS NEAR 20F ELSEWHERE WITH CLOUD COVER.
THUR-FRI NIGHT...SIMILAR PATTERN CONTINUES. THUR COULD BE SIMILAR
TO PAST COUPLE DAYS WITH CLEARING POTENTIAL AND WESTERLY SFC
WINDS. SLIGHTLY COLDER AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
ARRIVES BY FRIDAY...WITH CLEARING AND LIGHT WINDS POSSIBLE FRIDAY
NIGHT. NOT MUCH CHANGE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD.
LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...SIMILAR PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS
PERIOD. MAIN SYSTEM OF CONCERN WILL BE MONDAY. UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING DEGREE OF PHASING BETWEEN NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN
STREAM. 00Z GFS/ECMWF INDICATE SOME PHASING...BUT KEEP MAJORITY OF
PRECIP TO THE SOUTH. TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
ROGERS/JR/TG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
1131 AM CST WED FEB 15 2012
.UPDATE...
DRYLINE PUSHING EASTWARD WILL MOVE EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON EAST OF THE DRYLINE THOUGH SEVERE THREAT LOOKS MINIMAL.
A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL
THE MAIN THREAT.
DID LOWER TEMPS A FEW DEGREES OVER THE EASTERN SECTIONS AS CLOUDS
LOOK TO HANG AROUND THROUGH THIS EVENING.
BEHIND THE DRY LINE...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT WILL CONTINUE
WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS AND DECREASING RELATIVE HUMIDITY.
99
&&
.AVIATION...
CONCERNS... IFR AND LIFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING...CROSSWIND PROBLEMS
AT THE METROPLEX TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON...AND MVFR/IFR CEILINGS
RETURNING THURSDAY MORNING.
IFR CEILINGS ARE PREVAILING AT THE METROPLEX TAF SITES THIS
MORNING WITH LIFR CIGS AND VISBY AT KACT. HOWEVER...SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW ALREADY ERODING TO THE WEST OF THE
METROPLEX AS DRY AIR AT 850 MB MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. BASED ON
THE LATEST TRENDS AND GUIDANCE FROM THE RUC MODEL...IT APPEARS
THE IFR CIGS WILL IMPROVE INTO VFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 12-13Z AS
THIS DRIER AIR AT 850 MB REACHES THE METROPLEX. AT KACT...EXPECT
LIFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH 15Z AND IMPROVE TO MVFR FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE MORNING.
LIGHT SHOWERS ARE INCREASING IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION AND
WILL CARRY VCSH AT ALL THE TAF SITES FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING. WHILE
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT THIS
MORNING...THE THREAT IS TOO LOW TO CONTINUE THE CB MENTION IN THE
TAF...EXCEPT FOR AT KACT FROM 16-18Z. A DRYLINE WILL REACH THE
I-35 CORRIDOR AROUND 20Z WITH WEST WINDS OF 15G25KT OCCURRING AT
THE METROPLEX TAF SITES BUT LESSER WINDS AROUND 12-14 KTS AT KACT.
THE GUSTY WEST WINDS IN THE METROPLEX WILL CREATE SOME CROSSWIND
PROBLEMS. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT A FEW ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR ALONG THE DRYLINE AS IT REACHES THE TAF
SITES THIS AFTERNOON BUT THE POTENTIAL IS LOW AT THIS TIME AND
WILL NOT MENTION A CB GROUP IN THE TAF WITH THIS ISSUANCE. THE
WIND SPEEDS WILL SUBSIDE AROUND SUNSET AND THEN A COLD FRONT WILL
ARRIVE BETWEEN 07-08Z WITH THE WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST AND
THEN NORTH. THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD CONSENSUS AMONG THE MODELS THAT
LOW MVFR OR IFR CEILINGS WILL DROP IN BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...REACHING THE METROPLEX BETWEEN 10-12Z THURSDAY MORNING AND
WILL PREVAIL BKN010.
82/JLD
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 AM CST WED FEB 15 2012/
STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS THIS MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED DRY
LINE/PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE THROUGH THE MORNING WITH INCREASING LARGE SCALE FORCING.
THE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO OPEN UP AND LIFT QUICKLY NORTHEAST
THIS AFTERNOON AND ALLOW THE DRY LINE TO SURGE EASTWARD. A FEW
STRONG/MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE DRY LINE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ZONES WHERE MOISTURE AND SHEAR WILL BE MOST
FAVORABLE. ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL BE FAST MOVERS AND SHOULD
EXIT INTO EAST TEXAS BEFORE SUNSET. DOWNBURST WINDS AND HAIL WILL
BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.
WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE BETWEEN 15 AND 30 MPH BEHIND
THE DRYLINE AND HUMIDITIES WILL FALL BELOW 30 PERCENT. THESE
ELEVATED GRASS FIRE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON...
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF A GRAHAM TO GOLDTHWAITE LINE.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS TONIGHT AND BRING
COOLER AND DRIER AIR THROUGH THURSDAY. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL
DEVELOP IN THE SOUTHWEST U.S. ON FRIDAY AND RESULT IN INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDINESS ACROSS TEXAS. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS NOT EXPECTED
TO SURGE NORTHWARD DUE TO A SURFACE LOW IN THE GULF. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS NORTH TEXAS FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE MOST ABUNDANT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL END
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST SATURDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. A BRIEF COOL DOWN
IS EXPECTED SUNDAY BEFORE LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASES
AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE WEST.
MOST OF THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN TO THE
NORTH OF TEXAS WITH SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ROCKIES
AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. NORTH TEXAS MAY SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS MONDAY GENERALLY ALONG AND AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY WITH DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
79
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 76 42 60 40 58 / 50 10 0 10 10
WACO, TX 75 39 59 40 58 / 50 10 0 10 10
PARIS, TX 69 42 60 36 61 / 60 10 0 10 10
DENTON, TX 76 38 61 34 57 / 50 10 0 10 10
MCKINNEY, TX 73 39 59 36 58 / 50 10 0 10 10
DALLAS, TX 76 46 58 41 60 / 50 10 0 10 10
TERRELL, TX 70 41 59 38 60 / 60 10 0 10 10
CORSICANA, TX 72 44 61 40 60 / 60 10 0 10 10
TEMPLE, TX 74 41 62 40 60 / 60 10 0 10 10
MINERAL WELLS, TX 75 37 58 34 56 / 40 10 0 10 10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
/