Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 02/04/12

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA

935 PM PST WED FEB 1 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE
FORECAST AREA THIS WEEK PRODUCING INTERMITTENT SCATTERED MIDDLE AND
HIGH CLOUDS BUT LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION. VALLEY FOG REMAINS A
POSSIBILITY DURING THE NIGHTS AND MORNINGS.

.UPDATE...
WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTING TO 35-40 MPH IN THE MOJAVE DESERT FROM BELOW
THE TEHACHAPI PASS TO ROSAMOND. THESE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE LATER
TONIGHT AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST. THE WINDS
ARE LOCALIZED ALONG THE HIGHWAY 58 CORRIDOR FROM THE PASS TO MOJAVE
AND ALONG HIGHWAY 14 FROM MOJAVE TO ROSAMOND. EDWARDS AFB WAS
REPORTING LIGHT WINDS AT BOTH THE MAIN BASE AND THE NORTH BASE
AUXILIARY FIELD. HAVE ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
THESE LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS THROUGH 0815Z /0015 PST/ THURSDAY.

.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EAST OF CALIFORNIA
THIS EVENING. IN ITS WAKE...STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS THAT FORMED ALONG
THE VALLEY-FACING SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA AND THE
TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS HAVE SLID BACK OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTH END OF
THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY.

DESPITE THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...TEMPERATURES IN THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA INTERIOR REMAINED WELL ABOVE NORMAL TODAY. HIGHS IN THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AS OF 1600 PST /00Z THURSDAY/
RANGED FROM 63 /AT LOS BANOS...MERCED REGIONAL AIRPORT AND
PORTERVILLE MUNICIPAL AIRPORT/ TO 69 /AT COALINGA/. THE HIGHS AT
BAKERSFIELD AND FRESNO /66 AND 65 DEGREES RESPECTIVELY/ WERE 7
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. COALINGA ALSO TIED WITH THE CHINA LAKE N.W.T.C.
AS THE WARMEST SPOT IN THE HANFORD WARNING/FORECAST AREA.

ONLY PATCHY FOG FORMED IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY
THIS MORNING. WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO CALIFORNIA
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...EXPECT SOME FOG REDEVELOPMENT TOWARD DAYBREAK.
HOWEVER...THE MODELS FORECAST A LOW-LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW TO DEVELOP
OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AND THIS SHOULD DRY THE AIRMASS ENOUGH TO
KEEP FOG PATCHY.

THE MODELS KEEP THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER CALIFORNIA THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT MOVED THROUGH CALIFORNIA TODAY
IS FORECAST TO CLOSE OFF INTO A LOW OVER COLORADO AND BUILD WESTWARD
INTO NEVADA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THIS WILL SPLIT THE RIDGE...
WITH 500-MB HEIGHTS OVER CALIFORNIA LOWERING TO AROUND 5640 METERS
BY 12Z /0400 PST/ SUNDAY. THIS SPLIT OF THE RIDGE WOULD ALLOW THE
WESTERLIES TO UNDERCUT THE LOW AND MOVE INTO CALIFORNIA. WILL AWAIT
SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS TO SEE IF THIS PATTERN VERIFIES AND WHAT THE
POTENTIAL IMPACT ON THE HANFORD WARNING/FORECAST AREA WOULD BE.

FOR NOW...THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS IS DRY AND UNSEASONABLY
WARM WITH PATCHY LATE NIGHT AND MORNING SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY FOG.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 150 PM PST WED FEB 1 2012/
COOL AND DRY UPPER NORTHERLY FLOW PREVAILING OVER CENTRAL CA AT
THIS TIME AS OUR AREA REMAINS SITUATED IN BETWEEN A DEPARTED UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND AN OFFSHORE RIDGE. THE RIDGE IS
PROGGED BY THE 12Z WRF AND GFS TO AMPLIFY OFF THE CA COAST TONIGHT
THEN BUILD INLAND ON THURSDAY. ONSHORE P-GRADS HAVE STRENGTHENED
WITH KSFO-KLAS AT 10.4 MB AND KBFL-KNID AT 6.7 MB AT NOON TODAY.
HI RESOLUTION RUC INDICATING P-GRADS WILL MAX OUT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON THEN WEAKEN RAPIDLY THIS EVENING. THE INCREASED SURFACE
GRADIENTS WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT
DO NOT EXPECT WINDS TO REACH WIDESPREAD ADVISORY CRITERIA. IN THE
MEANTIME...SOME UPSLOPE STRATOCUMULUS HAS FORMED OVER THE
SOUTHERN SIERRA FOOTHILLS WHILE SOME INSTABILITY CUMULUS HAS
PUSHED SOUTHWARD INTO MERCED COUNTY. EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO
DISSIPATE TONIGHT AS CAA CONTINUES TONIGHT AND MIXES OUT THE
ATMOSPHERE. THE NORTHERLY FLOW PATTERN WILL ALSO INHIBIT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD FOG IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY
TONIGHT...BUT THERE IS ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NEAR THE
VALLEY FLOOR SO SOME PATCHY FOG IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR
TONIGHT.

MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES THE RIDGE WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS OVER
OUR AREA THURSDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL
RISE TO ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS AS THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE
AREA FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE ONLY FORECAST PROBLEM FOR
THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE THE EXTENT OF ANY NIGHT AND MORNING FOG
IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND SUBSEQUENT IMPACT IT MAY HAVE ON
TEMPERATURES. THE INCREASING SUN ANGLE WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR ANY
FOG THAT DOES FOR TO COMPLETELY BURN OFF BY LATE MORNING EACH
DAY...THAT IS UNLESS THE RIDGE COMPLETELY SQUISHES OUT ANY LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE.

THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF BOTH INDICATE THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN ON
MONDAY AND A SPLIT TROUGH WILL REACH THE CA COAST BY TUESDAY.
THE ECMWF IS SOMEWHAT MORE ROBUST WITH THE SPLITTING AND JUST
BRINGING A DEFORMATION BAND OF MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH
OUR AREA WHILE THE GFS HOLDS MORE OF IT TOGETHER AND BRING SOME
DEEPER MOISTURE INTO OUR AREA WHILE IT MOVES THROUGH CA ON TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT. HAVE DECIDED TO COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO
SOLUTIONS AND KEEP MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE OF
RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW FOR FRESNO COUNTY NORTHWARD TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT TAPERING TO MOUNTAIN SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY. ENSEMBLE
MEMBER AGREEMENT IS POOR SO DO NOT HAVE A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN
DAYS 6 AND 7 AT THIS TIME.

.AVIATION...
IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...LOCAL IFR/LIFR VISIBILITIES CAN BE
EXPECTED BETWEEN 09Z AND 18Z THURSDAY. OTHERWISE...AREAS OF MVFR IN
HAZE CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY.
ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
INTERIOR THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY.

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON THURSDAY FEBRUARY 2 2012...UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS IN
KERN...KINGS AND TULARE COUNTIES. FIREPLACE/WOOD STOVE BURNING IS
PROHIBITED IN FRESNO...KERN...KINGS...MADERA AND TULARE COUNTIES.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

PUBLIC...SANGER
AVN/FW...MV/SANGER
SYNOPSIS...PJ
PREV DISCUSSION...DS

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA

830 PM PST WED FEB 1 2012

FOR NOW...THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS IS DRY AND UNSEASONABLY
WARM WITH PATCHY LATE NIGHT AND MORNING SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY FOG.

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

PUBLIC...SANGER
AVN/FW...MV/SANGER
SYNOPSIS...PJ
PREV DISCUSSION...DS

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ALBANY NY

941 PM EST FRI FEB 3 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY A CHANCE OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE FOR
THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
FOR EARLY FEBRUARY.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 930 PM EST...THE LATEST REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR...AND THE KTYX
RADAR HAS SHOWN AN INCREASE IN REFLECTIVITIES OVER THE TUG HILL
PLATEAU AND THE WRN DACKS /NRN HERKIMER AND NW HAMILTON COUNTIES/...
AS THE COLD FRONT HAS REACHED THE WRN SHORES OF LAKE ONTARIO...AND
THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY. WE INCREASED THE POPS TO LIKELY
VALUE FOR AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW OVER THE WRN DACKS OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. THE LATEST NAM AND HRRR STILL SHOWS THE FRONT LACKING
GOOD MOISTURE CONVERGENCE FOR MUCH IN THE VALLEYS...AND ESPECIALLY
FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST. WE KEPT SOME SLIGHT AND
LOW CHC POPS OVER THE SRN GREENS...NRN AND ERN CATSKILLS..AND THE
WRN MOHAWK VALLEY UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE CLOUDS
THICKENED AND LOWERED QUICKLY OVER THE SRN ZONES. WE INCREASED THE
CLOUD COVER EVEN MORE OVERNIGHT...AND GRADUALLY TAPERED TO PARTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS TOWARDS DAYBREAK...AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN THE
WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY FROM NW TO SE. WE ALSO BROUGHT UP TEMPS A
COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE
CLOUD COVER PERSISTING A LITTLE LONGER.

PREVIOUS NEAR TERM UPDATE...

AS OF 655 PM EST...ONGOING FORECAST IS IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE WITH
APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY. AN H500
VORT MAX MOVING ACROSS NRN NY /VIA THE LATEST RUC40/ AHEAD OF THE
FRONT HAS FOCUSED SOME SCT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS...AND WRN MOHAWK VALLEY. WE RETOOLED POPS BASED ON THE
TRENDS...AND SPED UP THE TIMING OF THE CLOUDS WITH THE VORT MAX
AND FRONT BASED ON THE IR LOOP. T/TD/RH/APPARENT TEMP TRENDS RETOOLED
BASED ON THE OBSERVATIONS THE PAST FEW HOURS.

PREVIOUS NEAR TERM...

A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP SOUTH FROM SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY THIS EVENING INTO THE CENTRAL NEW YORK SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER BY DAYBREAK. THIS SYSTEM HAS
VERY LITTLE MOISTURE WITH IT AND IS EXPECTED TO ONLY IMPACT AREAS
NORTH OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY WITH AROUND AN INCH POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. LOWS OVERNIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE
MID TEENS NORTHWEST TO MID 20S SOUTHEAST WITH GENERALLY MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES...EXCEPT PARTLY CLOUDY EXTREME SOUTHEAST.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOR THE PERIOD FROM SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT EXPECT DRY
WEATHER ACROSS THE FA WITH A FAIRLY LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL KEEP THE SYSTEM TRACKING
FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE VIRGINIA COAST FAR ENOUGH
SOUTH OF OUR REGION SUCH THAT THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PCPN SHIELD
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF NEW YORK STATE. THE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SEASONABLE AIRMASS...ALTHOUGH TEMPS
SATURDAY NIGHT MAY BE A LITTLE COLDER THAN RECENT NIGHTS AS WEAK
COLD AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NIGHT. HIGHS ON SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO
AROUND 40 SOUTHEAST WITH SATURDAY BEING THE SLIGHTLY WARMER OF THE
2 DAYS. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE SINGLE
DIGITS NORTHWEST TO UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 20 SOUTHEAST WITH LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS NORTHWEST TO LOWER 20S
SOUTHEAST.

MONDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD
AS THE AIRMASS MODIFIES WITH A WARM FRONT MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA. EXPECT HIGHS ON MONDAY TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S
NORTHWEST TO UPPER 40S SOUTHEAST.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE PATTERN OF NO SIGNIFICANT STORM DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH A COUPLE OF
WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARIES PROVIDING THE IMPETUS FOR POSSIBLE
SHOWER ACTIVITY...THE GREATEST PROBABILITY OF THIS BEING ON FRIDAY.
THE FIRST COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY WILL LIKELY LIMIT SHOWER ACTIVITY...
IN THE FORM OF SNOW...TO THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...WHILE FRIDAY/S
EVENT MAY BE A MORE WIDESPREAD MIXED EVENT...YET STILL BE
MOISTURE-STARVED.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS
BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY RANGING FROM THE MID AND UPPER 20S IN THE
MOUNTAINS...TO THE UPPER 30S OR LOWER 40S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.
THE NORTHERN AND MOUNTAIN ZONES WILL EXPERIENCE MODERATING
TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND MID 30S.
HUDSON VALLEY HIGH TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE
LOWER 40S. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE PERIOD...
WITH LOWS RANGING FROM AROUND ZERO IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS...
TO AROUND 20 DEGREES IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. THEN A SLOW
MODERATION ENSUES...AND BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...LOWS IN THE
TEENS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHEST POINTS OF THE ADIRONDACKS.

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER
VALLEY TONIGHT. IT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE REGION BY TOMORROW
MORNING...AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM S-CNTRL QUEBEC FOR
MUCH OF THE WEEKEND.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND LOWER FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TONIGHT.
EXPECTING MAINLY VFR CIGS AND VSBYS...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
CIGS AT KGFL BTWN 03Z-06Z. THE SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
WITH THE DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE BY DAYBREAK TOMORROW. A FEW-SCT
STRATOCUMULUS WILL BE ACROSS ERN NY WITH VFR CONDITIONS DOMINATING
INTO THE AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT KGFL AND KPOU TONIGHT AT
LESS THAN 5 KTS...WITH W/NW WINDS AT KALB OF 5-9 KTS. THE WINDS
WILL INCREASE FROM THE N/NW AT 5-10 KTS LATE TOMORROW MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON AT ALL THE TAF SITES.

OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT-MON...MAINLY VFR. NO SIG WX.
MON NIGHT-TUE...VFR. SLIGHT CHC OF -SHSN.
TUE NIGHT-WED...VFR. NO SIG WX.

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE
WEEKEND. SOME GAGES ARE STILL BEING IMPACTED BY ICE ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE HSA.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/WASULA
NEAR TERM...11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN

559 PM EST THU FEB 2 2012

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN INDIANA AND THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES
WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST. MEANWHILE AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL DEVELOP INTO A CLOSED UPPER LOW AND MOVE OUR
WAY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
TRACK ACROSS KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL BUILD OUR WAY LATE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. IN THE EXTENDED HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER.
HOWEVER A WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION AROUND
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

AREAS OF FOG AND STRATUS EARLIER OVER THE WESTERN PART OF OUR REGION
HAS TAKEN MOST OF THE DAY TO CLEAR OUT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EARLY ON AND THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOG SOME FOG AGAIN TONIGHT. ON THE OTHER HAND...THERE
WILL BE MORE CIRRUS MOVING IN OVERNIGHT WHICH WOULD LESSEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG. THE 15Z VSREF SHOWS PRACTICALLY NO POTENTIAL FOR
FOG...WHILE THE RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE A MUCH GREATER POTENTIAL FOG
FOG. THE WINDS AND CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT WILL LESSEN THE POTENTIAL
QUITE A BIT. BUT WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY WILL MENTION PATCHY FOG MOST
AREAS LATE TONIGHT. I DON`T THINK THERE WILL BE WIDESPREAD DENSE
FOG AS THERE WAS LAST NIGHT.

WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL UNDERCUT MOS TEMPERATURES A
LITTLE TONIGHT. MOST AREAS LAST NIGHT ENDED SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER.

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THE HIGHEST DEWPOINTS AND LIGHTEST WINDS WILL BE ACROSS OUR NORTH
AND NORTHEAST SECTIONS FRIDAY MORNING. WILL MENTION SOME PATCHY FOG
ALL BUT FAR SOUTHWEST EARLY FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...FRIDAY WILL BE
ANOTHER VERY NICE DAY WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS. WENT CLOSE TO A
MET/MAV BLEND ON TEMPERATURES.

ALL MODELS SPREAD RAIN INTO OUR REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
APPEARS TO BE A VERY WET DAY WITH PERIODS OF RAIN MOST AREAS. BUT
WITH SLIGHTLY LESSER CHANCES ACROSS OUR FAR NORTH. AS FAR AS
TEMPERATURES WENT SLIGHTLY ABOVE MAV/MET BLEND FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SLIGHTLY BELOW SATURDAY AS CLOUDS AND PRECIP SHOULD LIMIT ANY
DIURNAL TREND ON TEMPERATURES.

1000 TO 850 MB THICKNESS DROP TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW 1300 METERS
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS OUR NORTH AND WILL MENTION CHANCE OF
MIXED PRECIP THERE. BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THE PRECIP MAY BE OVER
ACROSS OUR NORTH BY THAT TIME.

MODELS START TO MOVE THE UPPER LOW TO THE SOUTHEAST AS AN UPPER
RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. JUST ABOUT ALL MODELS NOW
LEAN TOWARDS A DRY DAY SUNDAY. BUT WITH AN UPPER TROUGH STILL OVER
OUR REGION 12Z-18Z SUNDAY...I AM STILL A BIT RELUCTANT TO JUMP ON
THE DRY BAND WAGON YET SUNDAY WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF OUR
NORTHERN AREAS WOULD DRY OUT FIRST. EITHER CASE...ANY REMAINING
PRECIP WILL END DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES TO
THE SOUTHEAST. DID NOT MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

QUIET PATTERN FOR THE LONG TERM. MODELS ARE MOVING THE TROUGH AXIS
THROUGH A LITTLE BIT FASTER SUNDAY SO BY SUNDAY NIGHT IT LOOKS LIKE
ALL PRECIP SHOULD HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE AREA. WITH THE VESTIGES OF
AN UPPER LOW STILL HANGING AROUND UPSTREAM AND MOVING ACROSS ON
MONDAY COULD SEE A LITTLE INCREASED CLOUD COVER BUT THAT/S IT GIVEN
THE LACK OF MOISTURE AND LACK OF FORCING. AFTER THAT MOVES THROUGH
MONDAY UPPER FLOW INCLUDES A DEEP UPPER LOW MOVING INTO ST JAMES BAY
AND ANOTHER UPPER LOW DIGGING INTO WESTERN MEXICO BUT VERY LITTLE
GOING ON ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES LOOK A LITTLE WARMER THAN AVERAGE
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR BUT ALLBLEND CAPTURED THIS WELL. ONLY CHANGES
TO ALLBLEND FOR POPS WAS TO REMOVE SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE SOUTH ON
SUNDAY NIGHT DUE TO FASTER MOVEMENT OF THE TROUGH AND REMOVAL OF
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN DAY 7 WITH ENSEMBLES AND OPERATIONAL GFS
FAVORING DRY.

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 030000Z TAFS/...

BY FAR THE MOST IMPORTANT QUESTION IS FOG AND VISIBILITIES. WE
HAVE HAD A DAY TO DRY SOIL SOMEWHAT...BUT DEWPOINT SPREADS AND
WINDS NOT VERY DIFFERENT FROM SAME TIME LAST NIGHT...WHEN FOG
BECAME WIDESPREAD AND DENSE.

THIS MEANS FOG WILL PROBABLY NOT BE QUITE AS LONG LIVED AND AS
THICK AS DURING THE MORNING...BUT WIDESPREAD IFR VISIBILITIES
FROM 06Z- 14Z. AT TIMES VISIBILITIES VLIFR. RAPID IMPROVEMENT AFTER
SUNRISE WITH VISIBILITIES P6SM BY 16Z.

OTHERWISE...EITHER NO CEILINGS OR CEILINGS ABOVE 10 THOUSAND FEET.
WINDS TOO LIGHT TO AFFECT OPERATIONS.

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...JK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN

327 PM EST THU FEB 2 2012

.UPDATE...

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

.SYNOPSIS...

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL UNDERCUT MOS TEMPERATURES A
LITTLE TONIGHT. MOST AREAS LAST NIGHT ENDED SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER.

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 02/21Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

CHANGED WINDS TO VARIABLE AT IND AS HIGH PRESSURE IS RIGHT OVERHEAD
AND DIRECTION COULD CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY AT ANY GIVEN TIME. WINDS
SHOULD BE AROUND 5-7KT OR LESS...SO SHOULD NOT CAUSE MAJOR PROBLEMS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ANY LEFTOVER FOG/STRATUS AT THE SITES SHOULD RAPIDLY BURN OFF WITHIN
AN HOUR OF ISSUANCE TIME AT KHUF AND KBMG. KIND AND KLAF HAVE
ALREADY COME UP TO MVFR AND WILL LIKELY BE VFR BY ISSUANCE TIME AND
WILL REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT /AROUND 5
KTS OR SO/ THROUGH THE DAY AND WILL DROP TO EVEN LIGHTER...PERHAPS
CALM...DURING THE OVERNIGHT.

SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY EXISTS FOR EARLY TOMORROW MORNING REGARDING
THE DEVELOPMENT OF DENSE FOG. FORECAST SOUNDINGS LOOK SIMILAR TO
THIS MORNING AT THE LOW LEVELS WHICH PRODUCED DENSE FOG THAT LASTED
SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER THEY ALSO SHOW CIRRUS MOVING IN TONIGHT AND
THIS COULD SERVE TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT COOLING AND KEEP VISIBILITIES
FROM DROPPING TOO FAR. BASED ON THE POSITION OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND
JET IN RELATION TO THE CURRENT CIRRUS DECK UPSTREAM AND THE FORECAST
MOVEMENT OF THESE FEATURES THINK THE THICKER CIRRUS HERE OVERNIGHT
IS REASONABLE. THUS THINK BEST COURSE OF ACTION AT THIS TIME IS TO
INCLUDE IFR FOG FOR TOMORROW AND MONITOR SATELLITE CLOSELY TONIGHT
FOR POSITION AND NATURE OF CIRRUS AND ADJUST FORECAST ACCORDINGLY.

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...CP/NIELD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN

320 PM EST THU FEB 2 2012

.UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN
UPDATED BELOW.

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN INDIANA AND THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES
WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST. MEANWHILE AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL DEVELOP INTO A CLOSED UPPER LOW AND MOVE OUR
WAY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
TRACK ACROSS KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL BUILD OUR WAY LATE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. IN THE EXTENDED HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER.
HOWEVER A WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION AROUND
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL UNDERCUT MOS TEMPERATURES A
LITTLE TONIGHT. MOST AREAS LAST NIGHT ENDED SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER.

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE HIGHEST DEWPOINTS AND LIGHTEST WINDS WILL BE ACROSS OUR NORTH
AND NORTHEAST SECTIONS FRIDAY MORNING. WILL MENTION SOME PATCHY FOG
ALL BUT FAR SOUTHWEST EARLY FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...FRIDAY WILL BE
ANOTHER VERY NICE DAY WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS. WENT CLOSE TO A
MET/MAV BLEND ON TEMPERATURES.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 021800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ANY LEFTOVER FOG/STRATUS AT THE SITES SHOULD RAPIDLY BURN OFF WITHIN
AN HOUR OF ISSUANCE TIME AT KHUF AND KBMG. KIND AND KLAF HAVE
ALREADY COME UP TO MVFR AND WILL LIKELY BE VFR BY ISSUANCE TIME AND
WILL REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT /AROUND 5
KTS OR SO/ THROUGH THE DAY AND WILL DROP TO EVEN LIGHTER...PERHAPS
CALM...DURING THE OVERNIGHT.

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...CP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DES MOINES IA

335 PM CST THU FEB 2 2012

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
COMPLICATED FORECAST TONIGHT ALBEIT A DRY ONE. FOG WAS SLOW TO BURN
OFF TODAY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MOISTURE REMAINS JUST TO OUR
EAST. LOW LEVEL FLOW TONIGHT WILL BECOME EASTERLY AND ADVECT THE
MOISTURE/FOG BACK INTO THE AREA. I AM EXPECTING SIMILAR AREAS TO
HAVE DENSE FOG TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS WE DID LAST NIGHT.
THE QUESTION IS ONE OF TIMING AND EXTENT OF THE DENSE FOG. HRRR HAD
A DECENT HANDLE ON THE REDUCED VISIBILITIES BUT LIKE THIS MORNING...
IT WAS A BIT OVERDONE ON EXTENT. I USED TIMING SIMILAR TO THE HRRR
BUT EXTENT SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT. TIME/HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS
INDICATE DRY AIR JUST OFF THE SURFACE SO MOISTURE WON`T GET DEEP
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE PRECIP. WE ALSO DON`T HAVE ANY LIFT TO SPEAK OF
UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING. TONIGHTS LOW TEMPS WERE KEPT SIMILAR TO LAST
NIGHT.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COMPLICATED WEATHER SITUATION WITH THE LOW COMING OUT OF THE
ROCKIES. IN THE LONG WAVE PATTERN THE MEAN RIDGE POSITION IS IN THE
110W TO 115W AREA WITH THE MEAN TROUGH TO THE EAST IN THE 70W AREA.
LOW COMING OUT OF THE ROCKIES LIFTS NORTHEAST THEN TAKES A TURN TO
THE EAST AND EVENTUALLY EAST-SOUTHEAST AS IT MOVES PAST THE MEAN
RIDGE POSITION. THIS LENDS CREDIBILITY TO THE SOUTHWARD SHIFT IN
THE MODELS AND ALSO THE RAPID WEAKENING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST.
THE SNOWFALL MAY WELL LOOK SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO THE STORM SYSTEM A
FEW WEEKS BACK THAT DROPPED THE HEAVY SNOWFALL IN KS. A COUPLE
ANALOG CASES STAND OUT TODAY WITH ONE BEING THE EVENT AROUND 21 JAN
1990...THOUGH SHIFTED A WAYS FARTHER SOUTH...THE OTHER THE EVENT
AROUND 22 MAR 2006. IN BOTH CASES THE SYSTEM WEAKENED AS IT MOVED
EAST WITH MUCH OF THE HEAVY SNOW REMAINING WEST OF THE MO RIVER.
SEE A SIMILAR SITUATION HERE. INITIALLY DRY LOW LEVEL AIR WILL
INHIBIT PRECIP DEVELOPMENT. THE UPPER LOW AND STRONG DYNAMICS WILL
OVERCOME THAT WITH THE COLUMN SATURATING OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH
BY FRI EVENING. PRECIPITATION WILL INITIALLY FALL AS RAIN WITH A
VERY GRADUAL CHANGE TO SNOW AS COLD AIR DEVELOPS AROUND THE CLOSED
LOW. SOME SLEET IS ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTH EDGE OF THE PRECIP
AREA EARLY ON DUE TO A DECENT WARM LAYER...BUT EVAPORATIONAL COOLING
MAKING UP THE DIFFERENCE RESULTING IN RE-FREEZE. LOW WILL PULL TO
THE EAST SAT NIGHT WITH LAST OF THE SNOW ENDING ON SUN. BACKED OFF
A BIT ON THE WINTER STORM WATCH DUE TO UNANIMOUS SHIFT IN THE
MODELS. THINKING AT THIS POINT IS IF WINTER WINTER STORM CONDITIONS
ARE TO BE MET...IT WILL BE A MARGINAL CASE AND CURRENT ADJUSTMENTS
TO THE WATCH AREA INCLUDE ABOUT A COUNTY BUFFER TO AREA LIKELY TO
REACH CRITERIA. WINDS ARE NOT LIKELY TO BE A MAJOR FACTOR WITH THIS
SYSTEM...THOUGH MAY GUST TO 25 TO 30 MPH AT TIMES. BLOWING SNOW
WILL BE LIMITED BY THE SPRING TYPE NATURE OF THE SYSTEM. NO
SIGNIFICANT COOLING BEHIND THE STORM SYSTEM AS THE AIRMASS IS
PACIFIC IN NATURE. ARCTIC AIR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL TO THE
NORTHEAST OF IA. DRY WEATHER AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPS
REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL BY A FEW DEGREES.

.AVIATION...02/18Z
DENSE FOG STILL LINGERING NEAR KALO AND COULD PERSIST FOR SEVERAL
MORE HOURS WHICH WOULD LEAD TO EXTENSION ONE MORE TIME OF THE DENSE
FOG ADVISORY FOR KALO ONLY. MOISTURE IS NOT EXPECTED TO PUSH OFF
EAST AND WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW SETTING UP TONIGHT...EASTERN TAF
LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE THE FOG ADVECT BACK IN THIS EVENING. CURRENT
MODEL TRENDS HAVE THE SYSTEM TO AFFECT IOWA NOW MOVING SOUTH SO I
HAVE BACKED OFF ON TIMING OF PRECIP. IT SHOULD NOT AFFECT TAF
LOCATIONS THIS PERIOD THOUGH SHOWERS MAY BE CLOSE TO KDMX BY THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD.

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT FOR ADAIR-ADAMS-AUDUBON-CARROLL-CASS-CRAWFORD-DALLAS-
GREENE-GUTHRIE-MADISON-TAYLOR-UNION.

DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST FRIDAY FOR
DAVIS-JASPER-MAHASKA-MARION-MARSHALL-MONROE-POWESHIEK-TAMA-
WAPELLO.

DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST FRIDAY
FOR BLACK HAWK-BREMER-BUTLER-CERRO GORDO-FRANKLIN-GRUNDY-HANCOCK-
HARDIN-WINNEBAGO-WORTH.

SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...MS FEB 12
AVIATION...FAB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PITTSBURGH PA

600 PM EST THU FEB 2 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION KEEPING THE AREA DRY AND
UNSEASONABLY WARM THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSING THE CENTRAL PLAINS MAY BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A FEW FLURRIES STILL LINGERING OVER PORTIONS OF CWA EAST OF
PITTSBURGH. SINCE THE HRRR ALSO INDICATED THIS SMALL CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION...CONTINUED FLURRIES IN THE GRIDS THROUGH 9PM THIS
EVENING.

SKY WILL START TO CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES
AND REMAINS IN CONTROL FRIDAY. FORECAST TEMPERATURES TO BE RIGHT
AROUND MOS GUIDANCE WHICH IS ROUGHLY 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE TO THE COAST FRIDAY NIGHT AS AN
UPPER LEVEL WAVE EJECTS FROM THE ROCKIES WHILE ANOTHER TROUGH
DROPS SOUTH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS SHOULD KEEP FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY DRY.

THE MODELS HAVE NOT HAD THE GREATEST HANDLE ON THIS SPLIT FLOW
PATTERN FOR MANY DAYS. HOWEVER...SIMILARITIES BETWEEN EACH MODEL
ARE EVIDENT. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THE TROUGH DROPPING OUT
OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL HELP TO MOVE THE LOW IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS
SOUTHEASTWARD KEEPING MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF THE MASON
DIXON LINE. THERE WILL BE A TIGHT PRECIPITATION GRADIENT...JUST
WHERE EXACTLY IT WILL SET UP IS NOT QUITE CLEAR. OPTED TO REMAIN
CLOSEST TO THE 12Z NAM/GFS AND 00Z ECMWF BUT ALSO DID NOT DISCOUNT
THE 00Z GEFS. KEPT ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT DUE
TO THE UNCERTAINTY AND MAINTAINED A MOS/NAM BLEND IN TEMPERATURES.

HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD ONCE AGAIN TAKE HOLD ON SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH
MONDAY. LATEST MODEL RUNS PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
ON TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO THE
REGION...FOLLOWED BY DRY CONDITIONS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FOR WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH TUESDAY.

A NORTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS
PROGGED TO BRING SHOWERS AND A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY
THURSDAY.

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STRATOCUMULUS IS BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. WHERE
CEILINGS EXIST...THEY ARE HIGH MVFR TO LOW VFR. CIGS SHOULD SCATTER
OUT DURING THE EVENING AT MOST SITES. LAMP IS THE ONLY GUIDANCE
INDICATING THAT MVFR CEILINGS WILL REMAIN OVERNIGHT AT FKL AND
DUJ...BUT THINK THAT THIS SCENARIO IS QUITE PLAUSIBLE. WILL KEEP
MVFR CIGS AT THE 2 NORTHERN SITES OVERNIGHT...FINALLY SCATTERING OUT
FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD...WITH LIGHT WEST WINDS EXPECTED TOMORROW IN
VFR CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD PROVIDE GENERALLY VFR WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY.
LATEST MODELS SHOW A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING EASTWARD FROM THE
MISSOURI VALLEY TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
IT APPEARS THAT THE BULK OF ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION AND
RESTRICTIONS WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF OUR TERMINALS.

A COLD FRONT IS THEN PROGGED TO SWING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
BRING SCATTERED PRECIPITATION AND POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS INTO THE
UPPER OHIO REGION TUESDAY.

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PITTSBURGH PA

334 PM EST THU FEB 2 2012

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A FEW FLURRIES HAVE DEVELOPED MAINLY OVER PORTIONS OF CWA NORTH OF
I-80. SINCE THE HRRR ALSO INDICATED THIS SMALL CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION...PUT FLURRIES IN THE GRIDS THROUGH 7PM THIS
EVENING. CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE REGION. MODEL PROFILES CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST A GRADUALLY CLEARING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST BY
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD.

SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES AND
REMAINS IN CONTROL FRIDAY. FORECAST TEMPERATURES TO BE RIGHT
AROUND MOS GUIDANCE WHICH IS ROUGHLY 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD ONCE AGAIN TAKE HOLD ON SUNDAY.

A NORTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS
PROGGED TO BRING SHOWERS AND A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY
THURSDAY.

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BROKEN MVFR STRATOCUMULUS IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AS
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR PUSHES IN WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. NORTHWEST
SURFACE WINDS AROUND 10KT ARE FORECAST TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL ON FRIDAY.

A COLD FRONT IS THEN PROGGED TO SWING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
BRING SCATTERED PRECIPITATION AND POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS INTO THE
UPPER OHIO REGION TUESDAY.

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PITTSBURGH PA

146 PM EST THU FEB 2 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION KEEPING THE AREA DRY AND
UNSEASONABLY WARM THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A FEW FLURRIES HAVE DEVELOPED MAINLY OVER PORTIONS OF CWA NORTH OF
I-80. SINCE THE HRRR ALSO INDICATED THIS SMALL CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION...PUT FLURRIES IN THE GRIDS THROUGH 7PM THIS
EVENING. CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE REGION. MODEL PROFILES CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST A GRADUALLY CLEARING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST BY
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD.

NO OTHER CHANGES WERE NEEDED IN THE NEAR TERM PERIOD.&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN OVER THE ENTIRE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING 5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.

MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT FOR SATURDAY.
DIFFICULT SCENARIO FOR MODELS TO GET A GOOD HANDLE ON AS THERE
AREA A LOT OF FACTORS INVOLVED.

SFC LOW WILL MOVE OUT OF WEST TX NORTHWARD AHEAD OF A DEEPENING UL
LOW OVER THE ROCKIES. AT THE SAME TIME, AN UL RIDGE WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE MIDWEST AND SFC HIGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY.

BY SATURDAY MORNING, ENERGY FROM THE SYSTEM, WHICH WILL MOVE INTO
MO, WILL BEGIN TO SPLIT. PART OF THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OVER THE
ROCKIES WITH THE UL LOW, WHILE THE EASTERN PART OF THE SYSTEM WILL
SHIFT INTO THE TN VALLEY. THE SFC LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD
SATURDAY, AND RAINFALL WILL SPREAD OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND LOWER
OHIO VALLEY ALONG A WARM FRONT. A STRONG SFC HIGH WILL MOVE
SOUTHWARD FROM SOUTHERN CANADA OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE
HIGH WILL SUPPRESS THE MOISTURE/PRECIPITATION WITH THE SOUTHERN
SYSTEM, KEEPING MOST OF THE AREA DRY.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH
MONDAY. LATEST MODEL RUNS PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
ON TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO THE
REGION...FOLLOWED BY DRY CONDITIONS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FOR WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH TUESDAY.

A NORTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS
PROGGED TO BRING SHOWERS AND A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY
THURSDAY.

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BROKEN MVFR STRATOCUMULUS IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AS
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR PUSHES IN WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. NORTHWEST
SURFACE WINDS AROUND 10KT ARE FORECAST TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL ON FRIDAY.

A COLD FRONT IS THEN PROGGED TO SWING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
BRING SCATTERED PRECIPITATION AND POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS INTO THE
UPPER OHIO REGION TUESDAY.

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

1255 AM EST THU FEB 2 2012

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 06Z TAFS

.UPDATE...
BAND OF CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS (H8-H7 LAPSE RATES OVR 8.5 C/KM) ARE
PUSHING INTO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE. MAIN CHANGE TO
EARLIER FCST UPDATE WAS TO INCLUDE MENTION OF FZG PCPN IN FAR WEST
THROUGH AROUND 09Z. RISK OF MUCH FREEZING PCPN IS SMALL...BUT THERE
WAS A BRIEF PERIOD OF FZRA AT KDLH AND RUC13 SHOWS 925MB TEMPS/WET-
BULB ZERO TEMPS RIGHT AROUND 0C OVR KIWD AT 06Z. DRYING IS VERY
EVIDENT BEHIND THE LINE OF WINTRY PCPN...SO EXPECT JUST A BRIEF
PERIOD OF SNOW AND MAYBE LGT FZRA/FZDZ OVR FAR WEST WITH JUST LGT
SNOW/FLURRIES BY TIME IT REACHES CNTRL CWA TOWARD DAYBREAK THURSDAY.
UPDATED GRIDS TO SHOW THESE TRENDS. TEMPS HAVE FALLEN INTO MID TEENS
ALONG WI BORDER WHERE SKIES CLEARED. IN THOSE AREAS...SHOULD SEE
TEMPS RISE UP THROUGH LATER TONIGHT AS CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS MOVE IN
FM THE WEST. ELSEWHERE... TRENDS IN FCST FOR TEMPS AND SKY LOOK GOOD
FOR NOW.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 423 PM EST WED FEB 1 2012

LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING...MAIN ISSUE WILL BE
CLEARING SKIES NEAR THE WI BORDER. TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY EVENING BEFORE COVERAGE INCREASES AGAIN OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURE TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED OVERNIGHT AS MODEL
GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY THE NAM...INDICATED TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO
THE LOWER 20S. LOW TEMPERATURES LATE THIS EVENING WILL BE LARGELY
DEPENDENT UPON THE SKY COVER.

OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH A SHORT WAVE MOVING FROM MINNESOTA INTO WESTERN UPPER
MI AFTER 00Z TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP AND PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. WHILE THE
SNOW SHOULD REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE...THE AREAS MORE LIKELY TO SEE
LIGHT ACCUMULATION WOULD BE OVER THE KEWEENAW AS THE GFS AND THE NAM
SHOW THE GREATEST FORCING OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AS INDICATED
BY OMEGA LOCATED IN THE DGZ. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT SOME
DRIZZLE MAY MOVE AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...HOWEVER WITH THE WETBULB
TEMPERATURE REMAINING BELOW ZERO AND ABSENCE OF ANY ADVECTION EXPECT
THAT ANY DRIZZLE WOULD BE VERY BRIEF. BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...PRECIPITATION SHOULD COME TO AN END AS SHORTWAVE PRESSES
EASTWARD IN THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE U.P. SKY COVER WILL
LINGER AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD SHOULD BE ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 423 PM EST WED FEB 1 2012

SHORTWAVE SLIDING THROUGH THE AREA ON THURS AFTN WILL BE SHIFTING E
OF THE AREA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO
START TO BUILD IN TO THE UPPER GREAT LKS THURS NIGHT. BUT...DRY MID
LEVEL AIR FLOWING SE IN THE NW FLOW...ALONG WITH WEAK H875
WAA...WILL KEEP LLVL INVERSION IN PLACE AND SHOULD KEEP LOW CLOUDS
TRAPPED OVER THE AREA ON THURS NIGHT. WITH H900-880 TEMPS AROUND
-8C...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LK INFLUENCE TO ENHANCE THE CLOUDS...WHICH
COMBINED WITH LIGHT NNW FLOW COULD LEAD TO SOME UPSLOPE --SHSN/DZ
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR LK SUPERIOR. IF ABUNDANT LLVL MOISTURE
ON 12Z NAM AND OUR LOCAL WRF-ARW PANS OUT WILL LIKELY SEE WIDESPREAD
FOG...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...SO ADDED A MENTION OF
PATCHY FOG TO THE FCST FOR THURS NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE UPPER GREAT LKS ON FRI FROM WRN
ONTARIO...WHICH WILL WEAKEN THE WINDS FURTHER ACROSS THE AREA. A
SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH THE NW FLOW WILL BRUSH THE AREA DURING
THE DAY...BUT LIMITED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT SHOULDN/T LEAD TO
ANY PCPN WITH MID LVL DRY AIR STILL IN PLACE. LOW CLOUDS FROM THURS
NIGHT SHOULD STILL BE COVERING THE AREA FOR MUCH OF FRI...BUT
--SHSN/DZ POTENTIAL LOOKS TO DIMINISH WITH LACK OF UPSLOPE FLOW AND
LLVL DRYING FROM THE SFC HIGH.

DRIER AIR ARRIVES FRI NIGHT AND SAT WITH THE SFC HIGH AND AREA BEING
BETWEEN UPPER LOW ROTATING JUST E OF THE CNTRL ROCKIES AND RIDGE
OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. OVERALL SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ROTATING
IN FROM CANADA...WHICH LEADS TO A DRY AND CONTINUED WARMER THAN
NORMAL PERIOD. DROPPED LOWS SEVERAL DEGREES ON FRI NIGHT...AS LIGHT
WINDS...CLEAR SKIES...AND PWAT VALUES AROUND 45 PERCENT OF NORMAL
SUPPORTS DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING.

DAYS 4 THROUGH 7 /SAT NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY/...

FIRST PART OF THE PERIOD DEPENDS ON THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW
EXITING THE CNTRL PLAINS AND ASSOCIATED SFC FEATURES. STILL
DIFFERING OPINIONS IN THE DETERMINISTIC AND ENS MEMBERS ON THE
HANDLING OF THIS FEATURE. MOST HAVE THE IDEA OF THE UPPER LOW
SHIFTING EAST SAT NIGHT INTO SUN NIGHT AND THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT
LKS...BUT AS IS NORMALLY THE CASE WITH THESE TYPES OF SYSTEMS...THE
EXACT TIMING/LOCATION REMAINS TO BE SEEN. LARGE SPREAD IN THE
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS TOO...SO DON/T HAVE A WHOLE LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT FEATURES AND WILL FOLLOW A CONSENSUS FOR THE FORECAST.
THUS...HAVE A DRY FCST ACROSS THE CWA FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...ALTHOUGH THE SRN HALF OF
THE CWA MAY END UP SEEING MORE SCT/BKN MID-HIGH CLOUDS AS MAIN AREA
OF SYSTEM PUSHES S OF THE AREA.

GFS/ECMWF SHOWING COLDER H850 TEMPS SURGING IN TUES BEHIND A COLD
FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE AREA ON MON NIGHT. COLD FRONT LOOKS TO
HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT...WHICH IS ALSO THE CASE
BEHIND IT. THIS WILL BRING COLDER H850 AIR...TOWARDS -16C...AND
CHANCES OF LES TO NNW WIND FAVORED LOCATIONS AND BUMPED UP POPS SOME
IN THOSE AREAS TUES AND TUES NIGHT. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE...WILL
KEEP TUES NIGHT INTO WED DRY AS WINDS BACK TO THE W .
&&

.AVIATION /FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ONSET OF -SN IS VERY CLOSE TO IWD AT ISSUANCE TIME. PER RADAR AND
OBS FROM ASX...EXPECT ONLY 30-45 MINS OF MODERATE SN WITH VIS
DROPPING TO AROUND 2SM. THIS BAND WILL CONTINUE EAST OVERNIGHT AND
REACH CMX AROUND 10Z...AND SAW AROUND 12Z. ONLY A 2-3 HOUR SPAN OF
-SN IS EXPECTED WITH MINIMAL VIS OBSTRUCTIONS. CIG FORECAST IS
SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT INTO THE MORNING AT CMX AS UPSLOPE FLOW WILL
BECOME A FACTOR AND BRING LEVELS INTO IFR RANGE. DAYTIME HEATING
WILL HELP RAISE THESE BACK TO MVFR LEVELS...BUT IFR CIGS WILL RETURN
AFTER DARK. DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY WILL
SLOWLY ERODE CLOUDS AT IWD. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL REMAIN UNDER
10KTS AND GRADUALLY VEER TO THE WEST AT ALL SITES BY THURSDAY
MORNING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 423 PM EST WED FEB 1 2012

IN THE SHORT TERM...WIND AND WAVES SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT OVER
THE LAKE AS PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS RELAXED. THE NEXT CHANCE OF
INCREASED WINDS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN AND AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND A LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...JLA
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...KEC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI

1159 PM EST WED FEB 1 2012

.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

EXTENSIVE/SOLID MVFR STRATUS DECK TIED TO RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
THERMAL TROUGHING WILL STRUGGLE TO CLEAR TONIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY. CEILINGS WILL HOVER PREDOMINATELY WITHIN THE 2000-2500 FT
RANGE...BUT MAY EASE DOWN BRIEFLY BELOW 2K FT /ESPECIALLY PTK AND
FNT/ DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. THE ONSET OF DAYTIME MIXING WILL
AGAIN WORK TOWARD SCATTERING THIS DECK ON THURSDAY...MOST LIKELY
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATE IN THE DAY AS THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL
PROFILE FINALLY WARMS SUFFICIENTLY ENOUGH TO HELP MIX OUT THAT
RESIDUAL MOIST LAYER.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT CEILING WILL REMAIN BELOW 5000 FEET
TONIGHT. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON THURSDAY.

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 340 PM EST WED FEB 1 2012

SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT

HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
BUILD OVER THE GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT WITH THE RIDGE AXIS OVERHEAD BY
AROUND 12Z. WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ALREADY RELAXING...WIND
SPEEDS ALREADY ON THE DECLINE WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THEY ARE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE BY MORNING. THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS WITH CLOUD/FOG
POTENTIAL FOR THE OVERNIGHT. STRATUS DECK AROUND 3KFT MANAGED TO
FILL IN OVER ALL OF SE MI THIS MORNING EXTENDING BACK WEST INTO
IA/MN...UNDER THE NORTH SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS THAT WILL BE MOVING
OVERHEAD TONIGHT. EXPECT THIS LOW STRATUS DECK TO THIN OUT SOMEWHAT
THIS EVENING WHILE HIGHER CIRRUS CLOUDS THICKEN TONIGHT. RUC MODEL
SOUNDINGS AGREE WITH THIS THINKING THOUGH IT KEEPS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE VALUES QUITE HIGH IN THE LOWEST 3KFT. THE NAM DOES ITS
USUAL AND IS EVEN MORE ROBUST WITH BOUNDARY LAYER SO LEANING MORE
TOWARD RUC. SO MODELS SHOW THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THE STRATUS TO
LINGER LONGER THROUGH THE NIGHT. EVEN THOUGH MANY OF THE ASOS
STATIONS IN IA/MN/WI REPORTED FOG WITH VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS DOWN
TO 2-4 MILES EARLY THIS MORNING...THE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WE WILL
HAVE IN PLACE SHOULD PREVENT MUCH FOG FORMATION IF ANY. RAISED MIN
TEMPS TONIGHT A DEGREE OR 2 TO ACCOUNT FOR THE THICKER CLOUDS.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY

FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK FAIRLY QUIET DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...AT LEAST FOR FEBRUARY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN
ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE A STRONG COLD
FRONT DROPS TEMPERATURES BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL NEXT WEDNESDAY.

UPPER SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA THIS AFTERNOON WILL DROP DOWN
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE
SURFACE RIDGE INTACT OVER SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN...WHILE A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN IN RESPONSE. THINK
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL STAY NORTH OF THE AREA AND HAVE KEPT THE
FORECAST DRY...WITH THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO
BE AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE OVER CENTRAL MICHIGAN. MODEL
FORECAST SOUNDINGS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT KEEP A SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...GENERALLY BETWEEN
900-800MB. ALTHOUGH GFS/NAM DO NOT SHOW AN OVERABUNDANCE OF
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING TRAPPED IN THE LOWER LEVELS...DID LEAN
MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH THE SKY COVER FORECAST (MORE CLOUDS) THAN
MODELS SUGGEST GIVEN POOR MIXING AND LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW
OFF LAKE MICHIGAN. ASSUMING THERE IS A LOWER CLOUD DECK...WILL HAVE
TO SEE IF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE OVERRUNNING ANY MOISTURE TRAPPED
UNDERNEATH THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION COULD SEED LOWER CLOUDS ACROSS
CENTRAL MICHIGAN...WHICH WOULD MAYBE PRODUCE SOME FLURRIES. GIVEN
THE EXPECTATION FOR MORE CLOUDS AND VERY LIGHT WINDS/POOR
MIXING...WENT ON THE COOL SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS
THURSDAY...IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.

THE RIDGE WILL THEN RESTRENGTHEN OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER UPPER SHORTWAVE DROPS
DOWN THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT. GFS/NAM BRING A
WEAK FRONT DOWN ACROSS THE AREA WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT IT LOOKS
MOISTURE STARVED AND SHOULD DO LITTLE BUT INCREASE CLOUDS ONCE
AGAIN. NAM IS SLOWER WITH BOTH THE FRONT AND SOUTHWARD PROGRESS WITH
THIS WAVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...AND HAVE
THEREFORE HEAVILY FAVORED THE OTHER MODELS WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. WITH THE SLOWER TIMING...NAM ALLOWS AN APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF DEFORMATION TO MAKE QUICKER
AND FURTHER INROADS INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES.

REX BLOCK PATTERN WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WEST COAST BY FRIDAY...PER
STRONG CONSENSUS FROM FORECAST MODELS. THIS BLOCK WILL THEN VERY
SLOWLY MAKES IT WAY EAST INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS AND TOPPLE OVER THE
WEEKEND. MODELS REMAIN VERY DIVIDED ON HOW LONG IT WILL TAKE THE
UPPER LOW ON THE SOUTHERN END OF THE BLOCK TO LIFT UP INTO THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. SPREAD IS ANYWHERE FROM SATURDAY NIGHT (12Z
GFS) TO EARLY MONDAY (12Z GEM)...AND CONFIDENCE SURROUND TIMING OF
WEATHER IMPACTS FROM THIS FEATURE ARE VERY LOW. UKMET/GEM/EURO KEEP
THE SYSTEM FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE AREA NOW TO SUPPORT A DRY
FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. DID HOWEVER KEEP A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW NEAR THE OHIO BORDER SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT...WITH LOW CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

UPPER TROUGHING LOOKS TO BUILD OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF
NORTH AMERICA AND THE GREAT LAKES TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS DROPPING DOWN ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. GFS/EURO ALSO AGREE WITH A FAIRLY STRONG
COLD FRONT DROPPING DOWN THROUGH MICHIGAN ON TUESDAY (THOUGH THERE
REMAIN SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES). THIS WOULD BRING A QUICK SHOT OF
SNOW SHOWERS AND DROP TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL BY
WEDNESDAY.

MARINE...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD EASTWARD
OVERNIGHT WITH THE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS LAKE HURON BY THURSDAY MORNING.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS ALREADY WEAKENED SUBSTANTIALLY THROUGH THE
DAY ALLOWING WINDS TO DECREASE WITH MAX GUSTS REACHING 20 KNOTS OVER
THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE HURON. WINDS AND WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO
DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE RIDGE AXIS DRAWS NEARER. THIS HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE VERY FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS INTO
THE WEEKEND. A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION ON
THURSDAY...THOUGH IT WILL BE VERY WEAK AND WILL MOST LIKELY NOT BE
ABLE TO PUT A DENT IN THE LARGER SCALE RIDGE IN PLACE.

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

AVIATION.....MR
SHORT TERM...DRK
LONG TERM....HLO
MARINE.......DRK

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI

1156 PM EST WED FEB 1 2012

LATEST UPDATE...AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...(415 PM EST WED FEB 1 2012)
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE TRANQUIL WEATHER INTO FRIDAY WITH
GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. MILD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO PUSH TO AROUND 40 BOTH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. NORMAL HIGHS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AROUND NEAR 30 DEGREES.
A SYSTEM MAY APPROACH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND AND
BRUSH THE AREA WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW AND LIGHT RAIN. AT THIS
POINT IT APPEARS THE BRUNT OF THE SYSTEM IN THE FORM OF RAINFALL
WILL BE SOUTH OF THE AREA.

.SHORT TERM...(415 PM EST WED FEB 1 2012)
(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CONCERNS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. MAIN ITEM
WILL BE THE EXTENT OF LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT. DECIDED GIVEN CLIMATOLOGY
TO ROLL WITH LOWER CLOUDS TRYING TO HANG ON. USED A MOSTLY CLOUDY
WORDING THROUGH THE NIGHT FOR NOW. BUFKIT RUC OVERVIEWS SHOW
MOISTURE HANGING ON BETWEEN 2000-3500FT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THERE
MAY BE SOME EBB AND FLOW TO THE CLOUDS THOUGH AS THERE IS A CLEARING
LINE PRESSING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. ENVISION SOME CLEARING THIS
EVENING WITH THE CLOUDS FILLING BACK IN OVERNIGHT.

BEYOND TONIGHT...GENERALLY A PARTLY CLOUDY FORECAST WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. COMPLICATING FACTORS THOUGH ARE A SHORTWAVE
DIVING SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY WHICH MAY INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND
POTENTIALLY SOME LOW CLOUDS FILTERING IN BEHIND THE WAVE THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(415 PM EST WED FEB 1 2012)
(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
FORECAST CONCERNS CONTINUE TO BE THE LOW MOVING OUT OF THE SRN
PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND.

THE GFS REMAINS CONSISTENT IN MOVING THE LOW FROM OKLAHOMA EAST
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THE NAM IS ON BOARD WITH THIS SOLUTION. THE
ECMWF IS NOW GIVING A NOD TO THE GFS BY DEVELOPING A LOW OVER
KENTUCKY AND THEN SHEARING IT OUT INTO A TROUGH OVER THE
APPALACHIANS. WITH THE ECMWF NOW WEAKENING IT/S LOW OVER IOWA AND
DEVELOPING ONE FARTHER SOUTH...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT A LOW
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS TRACK
COUPLED WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SUGGESTS THAT ALL THE PCPN WILL
BE SNOW. HOW MUCH PCPN WE SEE IS STILL UP IN THE AIR...SO TO SPEAK.
BOTH THE NAM/GFS SHOW A NICE SLUG OF PCPN BEHIND THE LOW LIKELY
ASSOCIATED WITH DEFORMATION PROCESSES. HIGHEST CHANCES FOR PCPN WILL
BE ALONG/SOUTH OF I-96 SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MONDAY LOOKS DRY BEFORE
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BOOSTS PCPN
CHANCES TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

.AVIATION...(1156 PM EST WED FEB 1 2012)
MVFR CEILINGS FROM 1800 TO 2500 FEET AGL WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS
STRATUS DECK HANGS ON. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE CLOUD FORECAST
FOR THURSDAY. WILL HAVE TO WATCH IFR CEILING IN LOW STRATUS NOW
ACROSS PARTS OF WISCONSIN TO SEE IF THIS WILL MOVE EAST THURSDAY
MORNING....AND AFFECT WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN OTHERWISE...THERE COULD
BE SOME IMPROVEMENT TO VFR THURSDAY AS CEILING HEIGHTS LIFT BY
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT AND GO WEST BUT
REMAIN BELOW 10 KNOTS THURSDAY.

.MARINE...(415 PM EST WED FEB 1 2012)
SURFACE RIDGING WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AREA THE NEXT
36 HOURS OF SO...PROVIDING RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS OUT ON THE
LAKE. WAVES AROUND 1 FOOT ARE EXPECTED INTO FRIDAY WITH WINDS OF 10
KNOTS OR LESS.

.HYDROLOGY...(415 PM EST WED FEB 1 2012)
RAIN IN THE LAST WEEK OR SO...COMBINED WITH SNOWMELT THE LAST COUPLE
OF DAYS HAS LED TO ELEVATED RIVER LEVELS ACROSS THE AREA. THAT
SAID...MOST SITES REMAIN...OR ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN WITHIN BANK.
THE USGS PERCENT OF NORMAL PAGE INDICATES THAT MOST SITES ARE IN
EITHER THE ABOVE NORMAL OR MUCH ABOVE NORMAL CATEGORY. THE KALAMAZOO
RIVER BASIN AND THE UPPER REACHES OF THE GRAND ARE THE HIGHEST. WE
CURRENTLY HAVE RIVER FLOOD ADVISORIES OUT FOR BURLINGTON...VICKSBURG
AND IONIA. THESE SITES ARE NOT PROJECT TO REACH WARNING STATUS. WITH
DRY WEATHER FORECAST THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...RIVER HEADLINES SHOULD
REMAIN FAIRLY STABLE.

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.

SYNOPSIS: DUKE
SHORT TERM: DUKE
LONG TERM: 93
AVIATION: OSTUNO
MARINE: DUKE
HYDROLOGY: DUKE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

1134 PM EST WED FEB 1 2012

PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT 858 PM EST WED FEB 1 2012...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 423 PM EST WED FEB 1 2012

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD SHOULD BE ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 423 PM EST WED FEB 1 2012

DAYS 4 THROUGH 7 /SAT NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY/...

.AVIATION /FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

COMPLICATED FORECAST THIS PERIOD AS LOW CLOUDS HAVE SLOWLY ERODED AT
IWD. WINDS BACKING TO THE SW BEHIND HIGH PRESSURE MAY ADVECT IFR
CEILINGS BACK BY 04Z. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CONCERN THAT SOME FG
COULD DEVELOP BEFORE CLOUDS RETURN...THROUGH CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW.
IFR CIGS SHOULD REMAIN AT BOTH CMX AND SAW AS DIURNAL DISRUPTION OF
CLOUD DECK APPEARS TO BE SLOWING TO THE SOUTH. THEN A WEAK SYSTEM
WILL BRING -SHSN INTO IWD AND CMX AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND INTO SAW AFTER
12Z. IFR CIGS WILL REMAIN THE ISSUE DURING THE -SHSN AS VIS IMPACTS
WILL BE MINIMAL. WINDS THEN VEER TO A GENERAL WESTERLY DIRECTION
TOMORROW. CIGS WILL REMAIN LOW AT ALL SITES...AND EVEN DROP SLIGHTLY
BELOW IFR LEVELS AT CMX IN THE MORNING DUE TO TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT
BEFORE HEATING BRINGS LEVELS BACK TO IFR RANGE.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 423 PM EST WED FEB 1 2012

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...JLA
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...KEC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DULUTH MN

909 PM CST FRI FEB 3 2012

.UPDATE...SOME DENSE FOG HAS FORMED IN THE SAME LOCATIONS AS LAST
NIGHT. HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY AS MORE LOCATIONS DEVELOP
DENSE FOG. HRRR AND LOCAL WRF CONFIRM THE DENSE FOG POSSIBILITY.
MADE A MINOR TWEAK TO MIN TEMPS. REST OF THE FORECAST UNCHANGED.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 533 PM CST FRI FEB 3 2012/

AVIATION...00Z TAFS.
VFR AT THE OUTSET OF THIS FORECAST CYCLE. THE EXCEPTION BEING AT
KBRD WHERE IFR CIGS PREVAIL. SOME AREAS OF BR WITH MVFR OR IFR
VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE AT ALL LOCATIONS...EXCEPT KHYR...AS THE
ATMOSPHERE REMAINS THE SAME AS 24 HOURS AGO. KBRD MAY SEE VSBYS
DROP INTO THE LIFR RANGE IN BR. EXPECT KBRD TO IMPROVE TO VFR
AROUND 15Z WHEN LOW CLOUDS AND BR ERODE AND A NW WIND DEVELOPS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 PM CST FRI FEB 3 2012/

SHORT TERM...
FOCUS ON CLOUD COVER AND EXPANSION OF FOG OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH HAD
A SLOW START...SKIES ENDED UP QUICKLY CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON
FROM THE EAST ALLOWING TEMPS TO REACH THE UPPER 30S AND A FEW 40S.
THE EXCEPTION WAS IN THE BRAINERD AREA WHERE LOW CLOUDS HELD ON
AND TEMPS WERE ONLY ABLE TO BREAK 30 F. ALTHOUGH THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS QUITE SHALLOW...BASED ON CONDITIONS THE PAST FEW
NIGHTS...EXPECT THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO RETURN TONIGHT. LATEST
NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING LOW LEVELS SATURATE THIS
EVENING...WITH INCREASING MIXING RATIOS WITH HT. THE LOWEST
VSBY/POSSIBLE DENSE FOG WILL BE IN THE WESTERN ZONES INCLUDING THE
KBRD AREA. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY ATTM. HOWEVER...WILL HIGHLIGHT FOG IN THE HWO AND
AFTERNOON WX STORY GRAPHIC. KEPT TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ABV GUIDANCE
TONIGHT DUE TO CURRENT DWPNTS IN THE UPPER 20S AND ANTICIPATED
CLOUD COVER. LOW CLOUDS AND ANY FOG WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING...REVEALING A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH TEMPS WELL
ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S.

LONG TERM...[SUNDAY - THURSDAY]...
THE PERIOD SHOULD BEGIN WARMER THAN NORMAL AND MOSTLY DRY...WITH
MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES RETURNING FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

SUNDAY...THE NORTHLAND WILL BE IN AN UNUSUAL SITUATION OF WARM AIR
ADVECTION FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE SUNNY SKIES...LACK OF SNOW
COVER...AND WARM 850 HPA TEMPERATURES OF POSITIVE 2 TO 4
DEGREES...SHOULD GUARANTEE SOME HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF
CANADA AND MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND. THE FRONT LOOKS FAIRLY
DRY...EXCEPT THERE MAY BE SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE
SOUTH SHORE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WHEN THE COLDER AIR MOVES OVER
THE LAKE.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH THE
REGION. THE FRONT LOOKS DRY EXCEPT FOR THE CHANCE OF LAKE EFFECT
SHOWERS. THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST MAY NEED TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY
LOWERED OVER THE COMING DAYS WHEN THE MODELS COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE DEGREE OF COLD AIR ADVECTION.

.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 22 40 17 41 / 0 0 0 0
INL 21 37 14 38 / 0 0 0 0
BRD 22 38 19 39 / 0 0 0 0
HYR 20 41 17 40 / 0 0 0 0
ASX 23 41 19 41 / 0 0 0 0

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST SATURDAY FOR MNZ010-018-025-
026-033>036.

WI...NONE.

SHORT TERM...GSF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO

543 PM CST Fri Feb 3 2012

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...

Primary focus will be on the broad winter storm which per water
vapor imagery covers much of the Central and Southern Rockies.
Overall, models are in good agreement in ejecting the primary PV
anomaly northeast through KS and nw MO by 18z Saturday. Thereafter
the upper circulation becomes elongated as a strong shortwave dives
south through the Great Lakes and phases in with the storm system.
The net effect is the closed low will open up Saturday afternoon and
shear eastward and thus tear apart the deformation zone. This will
make it more difficult to cool the column via dynamic processes and
overcome the easterly flow of relatively mild/moist air being drawn
into the system. This in turn will slow down the change over to all
snow and thus limit snow amounts. Should still see enough snowfall
to impact driving conditions and thus warrants a winter weather
advisory for Saturday afternoon and evening.

At the surface an inverted surface trough extends northeast from a
low near SPS into central MO. A band of scattered convection tied to
the last of the significant shortwaves will track just north of this
inverted trough and affect the southeast third of the CWA with the
heaviest rains of the evening. Water vapor imagery shows a
pronounced dry slot which will strip away the deeper moisture above
the boundary layer and abruptly cut off any significant rainfall
with its passage. Satellite imagery suggests the dry slot is moving
faster than earlier anticipated and the 18z NAM...which has its
limits...is more in line with the 12z GFS which brought the dry slot
into the southwest CWA by 06z. Latest RUC now confirms this so have
lowered pops over the southwest third after midnight. Despite the
rain drying up as the dry slot passes through Bufr soundings and the
saturated boundary layer favors drizzle into Saturday
morning.

As noted above the upper system will be opening and filling up on
Saturday as it moves through the CWA. With a lack of cold air in
place the column will need to be cooled by dynamic cooling but that
will be weakening. Snowfall amounts will be muted and confined to
primarily north of a St Joseph to Macon line. One to two inches
possible over the far northwest corner of MO. Confidence is not
particularly high as there will be a battle between enough ice
nuclei available before it gets stripped away and sufficient cooling
in the boundary layer to support accumulating snow. While the snow
amounts are marginal for an advisory felt this winter has been so
short on snow and quite mild that best to treat this like the first
snow of the season and call attention to adjusting ones driving
habits.

Temperatures likely flatlining overnight as long as the inverted
trough stays south of the CWA. That should change on Saturday as the
surface low lifts north and drags this trough line towards the
Missouri River. So, temperatures will be a challenge within the warm
sector and if any sun breaks through the forecast highs will be too
conservative.

**NOTE** KEAX WSR-88D radar remains out of service while it is being
upgraded and will be unavailable through Feb 12.

Medium Range (Sunday through Friday)...

At the tail end of the weekend, remnants of the cutoff low, that is
bringing today`s rain, will still be swirling over Missouri, making
for a messy looking rex block across the nation. However, the
remnants of the low will not stay in our vicinity long as a more
defined polar vortex drops into the Hudson Bay, shearing apart any
circulation that is still spinning around out there. This will mark
the transition from the rex to an omega like blocking pattern.

Operational and ensemble models are in really good agreement on the
late weekend development of the blocking pattern, so confidence
going into the beginning of next work week is rather good. Thus,
temperatures through much of the work week should stay around to
above normal owing to the lack of cold air under the blocking ridge,
and as the rex block transitions to a more generalized omega block,
there does not appear to be any potential for much in the way of
cold air to sink south. Otherwise, systems moving from west to east
will likely be shunt to our north or south, so dry weather is also
expected. Though, there will be a very weak shortwave sliding under
the blocking ridge Tuesday into Wednesday, which will need watching.

Cutter

.AVIATION...

For the 00Z TAFs: Dry slot continues to rotate northward into
southcentral and southeastern Kansas early this evening. For tonight,
IFR CIGS should prevail this evening as moisture continues to pool
along stalled 925:850 mb front. While much of the widespread rain has
shifted away from the terminals, short term models suggest additional
more scattered shower development later this evening ahead of the
pronounced dry slot and approaching surface low from the southwest.
Once mid-level moisture is scoured out of the area around midnight,
periods of drizzle will being to prevail through daybreak and into
Saturday morning. CIGS may periodically fall into LIFR conditions
with visibilities reduced below 3 miles at times. Winds are expected
to remain out of the east between 12 and 18 knots before weakening as
low pressure arrives at daybreak.

Model disagreement leads to a low confidence forecast beyond 12Z
Saturday. MVFR to IFR CIGS should continue for much of the daytime
hours, with visibilities slightly improving. Precipitation on the
backside of the departing surface may begin to impact all terminals
in the afternoon. Precipitation is expected to remain in the form of
rain through the TAF cycle.

Dux

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
SATURDAY NIGHT FOR MOZ001-002-011.

KS...NONE.

WFO EAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS NORTH PLATTE NE

828 PM CST FRI FEB 3 2012

.UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...

RAISED THE STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL UP AROUND TRYON TO 22 INCHES BASED
ON A REPORT OF 17 INCHES AT RINGOLD...RADAR TRENDS AND THE LATEST
HRRR/RUC SOLNS THROUGH THE NEXT 12 HRS.

BOTH THE HRRR AND RUC ARE BRINGING SECOND BAND OF SNOW NORTHWEST.
THE RUC PUSHES HEAVY SNOW TO HIGHWAY 83 AND THE HRRR TO HIGHWAY 61
BRIEFLY. THUS WE EXPECT THE SNOW TO PICK UP AND BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES OR
AT LEAST CONTINUE LIGHT TO MODERATE.

A NEW WIND FORECAST WAS DERIVED FROM THE RUC AND NAM WHICH PUSHES
WINDS OF TO 20 TO 30 MPH SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH. THIS MORE
CLOSELY REFLECTS CURRENT SFC OBS. THIS SHOULD CAUSE VISIBILITY TO
FALL BELOW 1/4 MILE DURING PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOW...MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 WHERE WINDS WILL BE
STRONGEST AS THE SFC LOW TRACKS FROM SRN OK INTO WRN MO BY 12Z
SATURDAY. THUS IF THE RUC AND HRRR ARE RIGHT...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
COULD DEVELOP OVERNIGHT IN SOME AREAS.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 538 PM CST FRI FEB 3 2012/

UPDATE...

AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONTINUES OVERNIGHT AS A WINTER STORM RAGES
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. FLIGHT CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR/MVFR FROM
WEST TO EAST SATURDAY AS THE SFC LOW TRACKS THROUGH KANSAS AND
INTO IOWA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 PM CST FRI FEB 3 2012/

SYNOPSIS...PIECE ONE OF OUR WINTER STORM IS WELL UNDERWAY WITH SNOW
BEING REPORTED ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. ACCUMULATIONS
OF 6 TO 12 INCHES WERE REPORTED ALONG A BAND FROM PERKINS
COUNTY...INTO THOMAS COUNTY. OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HRS...12+
INCHES WAS REPORTED IN THE STAPLETON AND RINGGOLD AREAS. AT NORTH
PLATTE...WE HAVE AROUND AN INCH ON THE GROUND IN THE VALLEY...WHILE
NORTH AND SOUTH OF TOWN...6+ INCHES HAS BEEN REPORTED.

WV IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON IS INDICATING LOW PRESSURE OVER SWRN KS
WITH A BROAD AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL MO...INTO
CENTRAL TX. A MID LEVEL DRY PUSH WAST NOTED FROM SERN NM INTO THE TX
PANHANDLE. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER NRN
TEXAS...WITH A INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING NWD INTO CENTRAL KS AND
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WAS NOTED OVER NWRN MT.

DISCUSSION...

NEAR TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE THE
MAIN FORECASTING CHALLENGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THIS WINTER
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO EVOLVE. INTENSITY OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND
ASSOCIATED LIFT IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AS
THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO EMERGE AND TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL
KANSAS. PRECIPITATION INTENSITY SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE AS WELL
LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA AS FORCING TEMPORALLY WEAKENS
AND TRANSITIONS SOUTH.

THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK FROM SWRN KS INTO CENTRAL KS
THIS EVENING. MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND LIFT WILL INCREASE ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SERN NEBRASKA THIS EVENING SPREADING SNOW TO THE
SOUTHEASTERN AND EASTERN CWA. INTENSE SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2
INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS AREA OF STRONG
LIFT...WHICH IS FOCUSED JUST OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. NONE THE LESS...SNOWFALL RATES IN THE EASTERN AND SERN CWA OF
AROUND AN INCH AN HOUR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT LOOK LIKE A DECENT SHOT.
FORECAST TRENDS ALONG WITH THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE FOCUS THE
HEAVIEST SNOW EAST OF A LINE FROM HAYES CENTER...TO NORTH
PLATTE...TO BROKEN BOW...AND BARTLETT...WITH A GOOD POTENTIAL FOR
8...UP TO 12 INCHES IN THESE AREAS. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL
INTENSIFY IN RESPONSE TO CONVECTION OVER ERN KS TONIGHT. AT THE SAME
TIME...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE DAKOTAS...WILL TIGHTEN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT LEADING TO WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT. THE WINDIEST CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
CENTRAL AND SERN ZONES...WHICH UNFORTUNATELY IS CO LOCATED WITH THE
HEAVIEST SNOW. ATTM...WE ARE EXPECTING SOME NASTY CONDITIONS FROM
LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IN THE SERN ZONES...AND
WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF SOME NEAR BLIZZARD CONDS DEVELOP.

WILL PLAN ON LEAVING HEADLINES AS IS FOR NOW...AND BASED ON ONGOING
RPTS FROM THE CENTRAL SANDHILLS...MAY NEED TO EXPAND THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY INTO WESTERN CHERRY COUNTY.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MAIN FOCUS WILL BE
TEMPS...AS THE HEAVY SNOW FROM CURRENT THE WINTER STORM WILL HAVE A
COOLING EFFECT. MONDAY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE
PLAINS WITH DRY AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS HOLD IN THE MID AND
UPPER 30S...WHERE SNOW LINGERS...WITH LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE.

TUESDAY A TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE WITH THE WAVE. MODELS DIFFER SLIGHT AS WEAK LOW TRACKS EAST
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. MOISTURE LIMITED WITH THE SYSTEM
AND WILL KEEP MOST OF THE AREA DRY. DID RETAIN LOW POPS OVER THE FAR
SOUTHERN ZONES...AS MODELS DIFFER ON PATH AND QPF VALUES. ECMWF HAS
A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK OF THE MAIN LOW AND IS SLOWER...WITH ALL THE
QPF PRODUCED STAYING SOUTH OF THE CWA. GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH
THE WAVE AND DOES PRODUCE SOME LIFT AND QPF OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA.
AND THE GEM IS STRONGER WITH NEARLY ALL OF THE CWA GETTING SOME
LIGHT PRECIP. HAVE GONE WITH THE MODEL BLEND...WITH THE FORECAST
ONLY HAVING SNOW IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES.

REST OF THE WEEK WILL SEE A RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE WEST...WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. ARCTIC AIR TO REMAIN WELL TO
THE NORTHEAST WITH MORE SEASONALLY COOL TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. PENDING HOW FAST THE SNOW MELTS...MAY NEED SOME LOCALLY
DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENT OF HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES.

AVIATION...
MAJOR WINTER STORM IMPACTING MUCH OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. BANDS OF HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT AVIATION
TRAVELS FROM SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED TO A MILE OR LESS DUE TO
MODERATE AND HEAVY SNOW AND NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KTS.
CIGS ALSO IN THE OVC005 TO OVC015 RANGE. OVERNIGHT INCREASING SNOW
TOTALS WILL COMBINE WITH GUSTY WINDS TO PRODUCE PERIODS OF BLOWING
SNOW. FOR NORTHWESTERN INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...INCLUDING THE
VTN TERMINAL...THIS AREA WILL MISS OUT ON THE HEAVY SNOW
BANDS...HOWEVER LOW IFR CIGS WILL STILL BE LIKELY. TOMORROW THE
SYSTEM WILL EXIT TO THE EAST WITH RAPID IMPROVEMENT OF CONDITIONS
TO VFR DURING THE DAY.

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST SATURDAY FOR NEZ056>058-069.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ SATURDAY FOR
NEZ022-024>029-035>038-059-070-071.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ SATURDAY FOR
NEZ005-008>010-023-094.

SHORT TERM/EXTENDED...JACOBS
AVIATION...CDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BUFFALO NY

653 AM EST THU FEB 2 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL TRAP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
KEEP ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH
NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW FLURRIES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
WESTERN NEW YORK. MORE SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN JUST ABOVE NORMAL EARLY FEBRUARY READINGS
WITH 30S FOUND ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
07Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A WEAK HIGH RIDGED FROM JAMES BAY DOWN
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS HIGH WILL BUILD EASTWARD TODAY
WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EVENTUALLY SETTLING ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE WITH THE WIDESPREAD STRATUS
DECK CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER THE AREA. NORTHERLY COMPONENT IN
PLACE TODAY WILL BE FAVORABLE IN KEEPING CLOUD COVER IN
PLACE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER. LATEST RUC MODEL SOUNDINGS AGREE WITH THIS THINKING
AS IT KEEPS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE VALUES QUITE HIGH IN THE LOWEST 3
THOUSAND FEET. WEAK SHORTWAVE PUSHING THROUGH THE UPPER LAKES WILL
PASS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND COULD BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME FLURRIES TO THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND GENESEE VALLEY. WEAK
COLD AIR ADVECTION AND CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES PRETTY
MUCH STEADY THROUGH THE DAY AND NOT VARYING MUCH FROM CURRENT
READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S....BUT UPPER 20S FOR PORTIONS OF
THE NORTH COUNTRY.

RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT ALONG WITH SOME DRYING BEHIND THE
SHORTWAVE AND BACKING WINDS COULD BRING A BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR
SOME CLEARING... BUT BASED ON AMOUNT OF UPSTREAM CLOUD CLOUD WILL
NOT BE TOO OPTIMISTIC. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND GREATLY
ON AMOUNT OF CLEARING IF ANY...WITH MID TO UPPER 20S FOR MOST OF
THE AREA...WITH TEENS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH A BETTER
CHANCE TO SEE ADEQUATE CLEARING.

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE PERIOD WILL BE RATHER QUIET...AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP COLD AIR CUT OFF TO THE NORTH...WITH
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH ON FRIDAY WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT
GRAZING THE REGION FRIDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS
FOR FRIDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON BUT ONLY CARRY PRECIP TYPE AS
FLURRIES AS WILL NOT EXPECT ACCUMULATION...THEN STILL CHANCE POPS
BUT LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WITH A MINOR ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. MOISTURE
PROFILE IS MEAGER IN THE MID LEVELS WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
CRYSTAL GROWTH AVAILABLE ALOFT...SOME PRECIP MAY BE AS LIGHT DRIZZLE
DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY...BUT THERE ARE INDICATIONS ON NAM12 BUFKIT
OF CRYSTAL GROWTH ALOFT DURING LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING LEADING TO
FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW VERSUS DRIZZLE.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...WITH FRIDAY LIKELY TO RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S IN MOST
LOCATIONS...LOWER 30S EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE WEAK COLD FRONT AND SOME LAKE INDUCED CLOUDINESS
WILL KEEP TEMPS UP INITIALLY DURING FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT DRYING AND
CLEARING AFTER MIDNIGHT SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL TO THE LOWER 20S
FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND EVEN TO THE LOWER TEENS EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO.

WEST TO EAST SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER THE AREA FOR
THE WEEKEND WITH COOLER TEMPS ON SATURDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO TO LOWER 30S ELSEWHERE...AND THE UPPER 20S TO
MID 30S ON SUNDAY. EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FLURRIES SUNDAY AS A
MOISTURE STARVED WAVE DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE BLOCKED FLOW.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
IT WILL BE A FAIRLY QUIET PATTERN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN
FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE TIMING THE EXIT OF A CUT-OFF 500 MB
LOW...WHICH BOTH GFS AND ECMWF MAINTAIN ACROSS THE MIDWESTERN STATES
/NEAR IOWA/ THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z MONDAY. THE 500MB CLOSED LOW WILL
KEEP A BLOCKED FLOW AND EFFECTIVELY PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
MAKERS FROM CROSSING OUR AREA. THE LOW IS NOT FORECAST TO OPEN AND
ENTER THE NORTHERN STREAM UNTIL LATER ON MONDAY NIGHT. MONDAY SHOULD
REMAIN FREE OF PRECIP WITH TEMPS CONTINUING TO MODERATE INTO THE
MID/UPR 30S EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO TO THE LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE...THANKS
TO THE RIDGING DOWNSTREAM OF THE MIDWESTERN CLOSED LOW.

THE CLOSED LOW WILL FILL AND MERGE WITH A MUCH HIGHER AMPLITUDE
TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SNOW TO THE REGION
ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. GFS AND
ECMWF ARE DROPPING A COLD POOL ACROSS QUEBEC AND NORTHERN NY...BUT
THE VERY COLDEST AIR WILL STAY WELL NORTH THEN EAST OF OUR REGION.
BOTH MODELS ALSO PUSH A SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
AND THE FULL LENGTH OF THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER TUESDAY NIGHT...
FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY THE PACIFIC ORIGIN HIGH PRESSURE CENTER ON
WEDNESDAY...THUS ENDING THE CHANCE OF SNOW. AFTER THE MILD START OF
THE WEEK...EXPECT TEMPS TO FALL BACK TO LOWS IN THE UPPER SINGLE
NUMBERS AND TEENS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S
DURING WEDNESDAY...NEARLY NORMAL FOR EARLY FEBRUARY.

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS CONTINUING EARLY THIS MORNING. REGIONAL
OBSERVATIONS SUGGESTING CIGS WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 2K AND 25 HUNDRED
FEET THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY BE ABLE TO MIX OUT BY AFTERNOON...BUT LIKELY HOLDING
IN ALONG THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER IN A NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE TONIGHT AND AREAS WHICH
IMPROVE TO VFR MAY HAVE CIGS RETURN BACK DOWN TO MVFR.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR
FRIDAY NIGHT...MVFR CIGS WITH A CHC FOR PRECIPITATION EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD EASTWARD TODAY
WITH THE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS ALREADY WEAKENED SUBSTANTIALLY EARLY THIS
MORNING. WINDS AND WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE TODAY AS THE RIDGE
AXIS DRAWS CLOSER. THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE FAVORABLE
MARINE CONDITIONS INTO THE WEEKEND WITH NO FLAGS EXPECTED.

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...WCH
LONG TERM...WCH
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...TMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BUFFALO NY

427 AM EST THU FEB 2 2012

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS CONTINUING EARLY THIS MORNING. REGIONAL
OBSERVATIONS SUGGESTING CIGS WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 2K AND 25 HUNDRED
FEET THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY BE ABLE TO MIX OUT BY AFTERNOON...BUT LIKELY HOLDING
IN ALONG THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER IN A NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE TONIGHT AND AREAS WHICH
IMPROVE TO VFR MAY HAVE CIGS RETURN BACK DOWN TO MVFR.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR
FRIDAY NIGHT...MVFR CIGS WITH A CHC FOR PRECIPITATION EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...WCH
LONG TERM...WCH
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...TMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BUFFALO NY

317 AM EST THU FEB 2 2012

RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT ALONG WITH SOME DRYING BEHIND THE
SHORTWAVE AND VEERING WINDS COULD BRING A BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR
SOME CLEARING... BUT BASED ON AMOUNT OF UPSTREAM CLOUD CLOUD WILL
NOT BE TOO OPTIMISTIC. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND GREATLY
ON AMOUNT OF CLEARING IF ANY...WITH MID TO UPPER 20S FOR MOST OF
THE AREA...WITH TEENS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH A BETTER
CHANCE TO SEE ADEQUATE CLEARING.

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR CIGS CONTINUE TONIGHT...WITH DROP TO IFR POSSIBLE AFTER
09Z. KART AT VFR AND MAY REMAIN THERE. INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. 03Z LAMP
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THE TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NIGHT. WEST WINDS EXPECTED TO VEER TO NORTHERLY WHICH TYPICALLY
HELPS CLOUDS TO HANG IN PLACE. THEN WINDS VEER A BIT MORE TO
NORTHEASTERLY LATE TONIGHT. A NORTHEASTERLY FLOW CLIMATOLOGICALLY
YIELDS IFR CIGS FOR KBUF/KIAG/KROC SITES. LOWERED CIGS IN FORECAST
TO IFR BASED ON THIS. OBS CONTINUE TO REMAIN OUT OF SERVICE AT KJHW
UFN. GUIDANCE SHOWS TREND AT KJHW TO OTHER WESTERN NY TAFS. KART
WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR ADJUSTMENT. LOWER CONFIDENCE OF MVFR
THERE WITH N/NE WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT MAINLY VFR...WITH RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO.
THURSDAY MAINLY VFR
FRIDAY NIGHT...MVFR CIGS WITH A CHC FOR PRECIPITATION EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...WCH
LONG TERM...WCH
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...TMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC

313 PM EST THU FEB 2 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH FRIDAY AND SETTLE OVER
THE REGION ON SATURDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE
AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION BY
EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL AGAIN BUILD OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 315 PM THURSDAY...COLD FRONT MOVING DOWN THE COAST AS OF 20Z
WITH WIND BECOMING MORE NNW/N AND LOWER DEWPOINTS SURGING INTO THE
REGION. SCATTERED CUMULUS SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING
THIS EVENING LEAVING A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY. BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING
SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES UP OVERNIGHT AND WENT SLIGHTLY ABOVE
MOS GUIDANCE FORECASTING MIN TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S. THIS SHOULD PRECLUDE FOG FORMATION.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM THURSDAY...AS AXIS OF 1030+ MB HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SETTLE OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO A
MORE SEASONABLE DAY TEMPERATURE-WISE UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOWER 50S IMMEDIATE COAST TO THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S INLAND. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THURS...CONTINUED BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN THE
LONG TERM FORECAST AS MODELS NOT IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF
A COUPLE FRONTAL SYSTEMS PROGGED TO IMPACT THE REGION THIS WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BLEND OF 12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF PREFERRED BY
HPC AND GENERALLY FOLLOWED A BLEND OF 12Z HPC GUIDANCE AND 00Z
ECMWF PROGS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT WITH WEAK
SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
SETS UP SAT AFTERNOON INTO SAT NIGHT WITH WEAK SHOWERS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN
NC SAT NIGHT. FLOW ALOFT FLATTENS TO ZONAL BY SAT NIGHT. A SURFACE LOW
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS SAT
EVENING. A STRONG POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG
SOUTH ACROSS VA/NC SUN INTO SUN NIGHT AND WILL DRAG THE SURFACE
LOW ACROSS EASTERN NC SUN. MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS WITH QPF AROUND
A QUARTER TO HALF INCH.

CONSIDERABLE CHANGE BETWEEN THE 00Z AND 12Z ECMWF RUNS WITH THE
EARLY WEEK SCENARIO. 00Z ECMWF/12Z GFS BRINGS IN WEAK SURFACE
RIDGING FROM THE NORTH EARLY MON AS ANOTHER SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS
ALONG A STALLED FRONT WELL TO THE SOUTH...WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF
KEEPS THE LOW FORMATION MUCH FARTHER SOUTH WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON
THE REGIONS WEATHER. SINCE THE 12Z ECMWF APPEARS TO BE AN
OUTLIER...WILL MAINTAIN FORECAST MENTALITY WITHOUT 12Z ECMWF INPUT
AND CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MON INTO MON NIGHT. WEAK RIDGING
DEVELOPS AT THE SURFACE TUES INTO WEDNESDAY WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.
TEMPS IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S. AGAIN TIMING OF THESE SYSTEMS ARE
IN FLUX AS MODELS STILL TRYING TO GRASP THE AMPLIFIED SPLIT FLOW
PATTERN WITH A REX BLOCK ACROSS THE WRN CONUS LATE THIS WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND.

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 315 PM THURSDAY...WITH FRONT NOW MOVING OFFSHORE...SCATTERED
CUMULUS WITH BASES AT OR ABOVE 5000 FEET ARE PREVAILING ACROSS
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. THINK THESE CUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE WITH
LOSS OF HEATING LATER THIS EVENING WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT. SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING SHOULD PREVENT MUCH IN
THE WAY OF FOG FORMATION TONIGHT. FRIDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM THURS...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT WITH
HIGH PRES ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS THE
AREA LATE SAT AND SAT NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS
EASTERN NC LATE SAT NIGHT. A PERIOD OF MVFR TO IFR CIGS EXPECTED
LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION TRAPPING
MOISTURE NEAR THE SFC ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEKEND HOWEVER ANOTHER SYSTEM
MOVES INTO THE AREA LATE MON INTO EARLY TUE WHICH COULD BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SUB VFR CONDITIONS. BELOW NORMAL CONFIDENCE
HOWEVER AS MODELS HANDLING THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEMS DIFFERENTLY.

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM THURSDAY...HAVE MADE SOME CHANGES TO THE MARINE
FORECAST AT THIS UPDATE. BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND A AREA
OF PRESSURE RISES MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN MARINE ZONES...CONFIDENCE
IS GOOD THAT A PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA WINDS WILL OCCUR ON
THE SOUNDS AND COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT AT LEAST THRU
THIS EVENING. THIS IS ALSO VERIFIED BY THE LATEST 13KM RUC MODEL
WHICH SHOWS SOME 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS OVER THE NEXT 3 HOURS OR
SO...THEN ANOTHER PERIOD OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS LATER TONIGHT. SEAS
WILL BUILD OVER THE COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT AND
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF OCRACOKE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH 6 FOOT
SEAS LIKELY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE OUTER REACHES OF THE COASTAL
WATERS INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. NAM INDICATES SOME ADDITIONAL
GUSTINESS...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN WATERS DURING FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS WELL. WILL RUN THE ADVISORY THRU EARLY EVENING FRIDAY
ALTHOUGH SOME AREAS...PARTICULARLY THE SOUNDS MAY BE ABLE TO BE
DROPPED EARLIER. TRENDED TOWARD THE WAVEWATCH 4 FOR SEAS AS THE
LATEST LOCAL SWAN APPEARED TO BUILD AND DISSIPATE THE WAVES A BIT
TOO QUICKLY...WHICH IS A COMMON BIAS IN THE MODEL.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM THURS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT WITH WINDS SHIFTING NORTHEAST THEN EAST TO
SOUTHEAST BY SAT EVENING AND REMAINING 10 KNOTS OR LESS. SEAS WILL
REMAIN 2 TO 4 FT FRI NIGHT INTO SUN. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS SAT NIGHT AND INCREASE 10 TO 15
KNOTS OUT OF THE NORTH. SEAS WILL BUILD 3 TO 5 FT LATE SUN NIGHT ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS ASSOCIATED WITH A TIGHTENING SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WINDS INCREASING TO NEAR 20 KNOTS.
CONSIDERABLE MODEL DISAGREEMENT MON NIGHT INTO TUES WITH LATEST
GUIDANCE. WILL HEDGE TOWARD PREVIOUS FORECAST AND 00Z ECMWF FOR
CONTINUITY. SWAN AND WAVEWATCH III WERE IN DECENT AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM TO 10 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
AMZ130-135-150-152-154-156.

SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...CTC/DAG
MARINE...CTC/DAG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC

927 AM EST THU FEB 2 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH EARLY THIS MORNING WILL DROP SOUTH
THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY THEN MOVE OFFSHORE SATURDAY. A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND STALL
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL PUSH BACK SOUTH SUNDAY
NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY THEN
CROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 930 AM THURSDAY...PRECIPITATION HAS EXITED THE COAST AND
HAVE DROPPED ALL POPS. SLOW CLEARING WILL ENSUE FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS DOWNSLOPING FLOW WILL SLOWLY
BUT SURELY ERODE AWAY THE LOW CLOUDINESS THRU MID AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL RISE A FEW DEGREES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
WHICH IS NOW LOCATED IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT AND IS SCHEDULED TO
CROSS OUR REGION LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE WELL INTO THE 60S OVER MANY AREAS.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM THURSDAY...HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NW WITH MCLR SKIES EXPECTED. DEWPTS WILL GRAD FALL AND EXPECT LOW
TEMPS TO RANGE FROM CPL DGRS EITHER SIDE OF 40 INLAND TO CPL DGRS
EITHER SIDE OF 45 OBX WHERE WILL HAVE DECENT BRZ.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THU...BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG TERM
FORECAST AS MODELS NOT IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF A COUPLE
FRONTAL SYSTEMS PROGGED TO IMPACT THE REGION THIS WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. ECMWF PREFERRED BY HPC AND GENERALLY FOLLOWED A
BLEND OF HPC GUIDANCE AND ECMWF PROGS THROUGH THE PERIOD. FOR FRI
SFC HIGH PRES WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE REGION WITH SHORTWAVE
RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM THE W. MAINLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED WITH A
DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE AS INDICATED BY PW`S AROUND 1/4". LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES AROUND 1320-1330M SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE M/U50S WHICH IS
A LITTLE BELOW MOS GUIDANCE BUT PREFERRED THE COOLER SOLUTION. THE
HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE SAT WITH SLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING BRINGING
SEVERAL DEGREES OF WARMING ACROSS THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL BE
INCREASING ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE BEGINS INTO
RIDE OVER FLAT RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION. A ROBUST SHORTWAVE
TROUGH PUSHING ACROSS THE NERN CONUS LATE SAT THROUGH SUN WILL
POSITION THE AREA IN FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE AREA OF THE UPPER JET
AND EXPECT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP SAT NIGHT AIDED BY FORCING FROM A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PUSHING S ACROSS THE AREA LATE SAT NIGHT WITH
SHOWERS LINGERING INTO MUCH OF SUN. STILL NOT LOOKING AT A
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH GENERALLY LESS
THAN A HALF INCH EXPECTED. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE WELL S
OF THE REGION SUN NIGHT AND EARLY MON WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING IN
FROM THE N AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDING ALOFT AND EXPECT
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. THE NEXT SYSTEM EXPECTED TO QUICKLY MOVE
INTO THE AREA LATER MON INTO TUE AS SRN STREAM ENERGY TAPS INTO
MOISTURE IN THE WRN GOM AND LIFTS IT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WITH AN
AREA OF LOW PRES TRACKING ALONG THE COAST. TEMPS LOOK TO BE NEAR
OR A BIT ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF THE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE M/U50S TO L60S AND LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S. AGAIN
TIMING OF THESE SYSTEMS ARE IN FLUX AS MODELS STILL TRYING TO
GRASP THE AMPLIFIED SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WITH A REX BLOCK ACROSS THE
WRN CONUS LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 635 AM THURSDAY...PRECIP ENDING FROM W TO E EARLY THIS
MORN...HOWEVER LOW LVLS FINALLY SATURATED AND CIGS HAVE DROPPED
INTO THE IFR/MVFR RANGE. THINK THIS WILL CONT A FEW MORE HRS WITH
MVFR LIKELY MOST COMMON. FROM MID MORNING ON LOWER LVLS START TO
DRY AND EXPECT CIGS TO LIFT TO VFR THEN SHLD SEE SKIES BECOME MCLR
THIS AFTN. CONT MCLR SKIES AND VFR OVERNIGHT AS GUIDANCE SHOWS
DEWPTS STEADILY LOWERING LIMITING ANY THREAT OF FOG.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THU...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FRI THROUGH SAT WITH HIGH
PRES ACROSS THE REGION...BUT EXPECT INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS THE
AREA LATE SAT AND SAT NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING S ACROSS
RTES SAT NIGHT. A PERIOD OF MVFR TO IFR CIGS EXPECTED LATE SAT
NIGHT INTO SUN WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION TRAPPING MOISTURE
NEAR THE SFC BEHIND THE FRONT. IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATE IN
THE WEEKEND HOWEVER ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA LATE MON
INTO EARLY TUE WHICH COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND SUB VFR CONDITIONS.
BELOW NORMAL CONFIDENCE HOWEVER AS MODELS HANDLING THE TIMING OF
THE SYSTEMS DIFFERENTLY.

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 935 AM THURSDAY...WINDS CURRENTLY SW AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH
A FEW OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KNOTS. SEAS STILL IN THE 2 TO 4
FOOT RANGE. LATEST RUC13 SHOWS WINDS SHOULD REMAIN STEADY OR
INCREASE A BIT AHEAD OF THE FRONT THRU EARLY AFTERNOON. COULD
HAVE A BRIEF SURGE OF NEAR SCA NRLY WINDS BEHIND FRONT BUT FOR NOW
CAPPED AT 20 KTS. LATER TONIGHT GRDNT WILL TIGHTEN ALONG THE CST
AS 1030MB+ HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE NW. MOST ALL GUIDANCE
SHOWS SOLID 20 KT N WINDS BY 06Z AND SHLD CONT CLOSE TO THAT THRU
MORN OVER CNTRL AND NRN WTRS...THIS WILL LEAD TO SEAS REACHING SCA
LVLS N OF OCRACOKE LATE TONIGHT. ACROSS SRN WTRS WINDS WILL BE A
BIT LIGHTER AND LESS FAVORABLE FETCH WILL KEEP SEAS AOB 5 FT WITH
NO SCA EXPECTED.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THU...ONGOING SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE WATERS FRI WITH NLY FLOW AROUND 15-20 KT AND SEAS AROUND
4-7 FT N OF OCRACOKE INLET AND 2-5 FT S. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
THROUGH THE DAY AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE N ALLOWING FOR
SEAS TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AND EXPECT SCA TO END BY AROUND 03Z SAT
FOR ALL WATERS. THE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE SAT WITH FLOW BRIEFLY
BECOMING SWLY SAT BUT A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH S
ACROSS THE WATERS LATE SAT NIGHT. AT THIS TIME MODELS KEEPING
CONDITIONS BELOW SCA CRITERIA WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS LOW MAINLY DUE TO TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG THE
MODELS BUT WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO SEE MINIMAL SCA CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE NRN WATERS WITH THE SURGE BEHIND THE FRONT. SCA
CONDITIONS A BETTER BET EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SRN STREAM SYSTEMS
LIFTS NE ACROSS THE REGION...HOWEVER MODELS MOT IN BEST AGREEMENT
WITH THIS SYSTEM AT THIS TIME EITHER.

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 PM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ152-
154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ150.

SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...RF/SK
MARINE...CTC/RF/SK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND FORKS ND

849 PM CST FRI FEB 3 2012

.DISCUSSION...

SAT LOOP CONTINUES TO SHOW THE HOLES IN THE FOG DECK CONTINUING TO
SLOWLY FILL IN. A FEW LOCATIONS HAVE SEEN TEMPS DROP INTO THE
UPPER TEENS...WHILE THE CLOUDY/FOGGY SPOTS HAVE STAYED IN THE
UPPER 20S. ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER AND TEMPS TO REFLECT CURRENT
TRENDS...LOWERING LOWS A BIT AROUND THE TVF TO FSE TO BJI AREA
WHERE READINGS ARE ALREADY IN THE TEENS. REDUCED THE FOG MENTION
IN THE WX GRIDS IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES DOWN TO AREAS OF UNTIL
AFTER 06Z WHERE IT SHOULD BECOME WIDESPREAD ONCE THE FOG DECK
FILLS IN. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY AS IT IS.

.AVIATION...

ALL LOCATIONS BUT KBJI GOING BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN 1/2SM AND
1/4SM AND UNDER. KBJI HAS GONE BACK UP TO MVFR CONDITIONS BUT
LOOKING ON SAT LOOP IT SEEMS THAT THE FOG DECK WILL FILL IN. THINK
THAT KBJI SHOULD GO BACK DOWN TO 1/2SM OR SO BY 06Z. THE FOG
SHOULD CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW MORNING. WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
AROUND 8 KTS OR SO BY AFTERNOON...SO OPTIMISTIC THAT CONDITIONS
WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO MVFR BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH SOME VFR
POSSIBLE BY EVENING IN SOME LOCATIONS.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 221 PM CST FRI FEB 3 2012/

SHORT TERM...

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE FOG CONCERNS INITIALLY AND TEMPS.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT...WITH THE HRRR DOING WELL
WITH VSBYS IN THE NEAR TERM WITH FOG.

FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT AREAS OF DENSE FOG TO PERSIST ONCE AGAIN WITH
SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. THERE COULD BE A FEW BREAKS EARLY IN
THE WEST AND NORTH...BUT ANY CLEAR AREAS SHOULD QUICKLY FILL IN
WITH FOG AND LOW CLOUDS AFTER SUNSET. VSBYS WILL BE NEAR ZERO AT
TIMES ALONG WITH ISOLATED SLICK SPOTS GIVEN THE VERY DENSE FOG.
TEMPS SHOULD NOT GET TOO COLD AND MODELS ARE GOING A BIT TOO COLD
WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND FOG EXPECTED. WILL EXTEND THE DENSE
FOG ADVISORY FOR ALL AREAS THROUGH 18Z SAT.

FOR SATURDAY...EXPECT MORNING DENSE FOG TO DISSIPATE BY AFTERNOON
AS 925MB WINDS INCREASE A BIT AND SLIGHTLY BETTER MIXING IS
EXPECTED. TEMPS SHOULD WARM ABOVE NORMAL ONCE FOG DISSIPATES.

ON SUNDAY...850MB TEMPS WARM TO ABOUT +5C WITH WESTERLY SFC WINDS.
TEMPS COULD GET EVEN WARMER IN AREAS WITH LITTLE SNOW...AND IT
WILL BE WARM IN ALL AREAS WITH UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD.

ON MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH FROM CANADA. THE NAM IS
THE STRONGEST/FASTEST WITH THE FRONT AND WOULD HAVE TEMPS FALLING
THROUGH THE DAY. THE ECMWF/GFS ARE A BIT SLOWER AND NOT AS STRONG.
IT SHOULD BE A DRY FROPA WITH PERHAPS SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS AND
NORTHERLY WINDS COULD BECOME GUSTY BY AFTERNOON AND WILL INCREASE
WINDS IN THE VALLEY A BIT FROM GUIDANCE.

LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...
ALL LONG RANGE MODELS INDICATE A POLAR LOW DROPPING INTO ONTARIO
WITH A COOLER NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT FOR OUR REGION. THEY DO DIFFER
ON THE EXTENT OF THE COLD AND HOW FAR WEST COLD AIR WILL GET. ECMWF
MAINTAINS THE COLDEST 850 MB TEMPS WHEREAS CANADIAN GEM THE
WARMEST. USING THE BLEND OF THE MODELS INDICATES HIGHS CLOSER TO
AVERAGE FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK WITH MOSTLY TEENS TO LOWER 20S.
LOOKS DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION.

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SATURDAY FOR NDZ006>008-
014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SATURDAY FOR MNZ001>009-
013>017-022>024-027>032-040.

$$
JR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND FORKS ND

332 PM CST THU FEB 2 2012

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

FOG WILL BE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT THROUGH
TOMORROW AND THEN TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND. GFS/NAM/ECMWF/
GEM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL USE A MODEL BLEND.

DENSE FOG HAS BEEN STATIONARY SINCE THIS MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHERN VALLEY AND NORTHWEST/WEST CENTRAL MN...WHEREAS
OTHER AREAS HAVE SEEN SOME IMPROVEMENT SINCE EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH LITTLE TO NO WIND WILL ALLOW
CLEAR AREAS THIS AFTERNOON TO FILL IN QUITE RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET.
LATEST HRRR MODEL RUN SHOWS VISIBILITY DROPPING TO BELOW 1/2 MILE
ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM COOPERSTOWN TO GRAND
FORKS TO HALLOCK FROM 00 UTC TONIGHT UNTIL 15 UTC FRIDAY MORNING.
EXPECT PERIODS OF DENSE FOG WITH VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS TO NEAR
ZERO AT TIMES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW ZERO...SO SOME FREEZING
FOG IS POSSIBLE RESULTING IN SLICK SPOTS ON AREA ROADWAYS AND
SIDEWALKS...BUT LOW VISIBILITY IS THE GREATER HAZARD. MOTORISTS
SHOULD PREPARE FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING DRIVING CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE NIGHT. WITH FOG...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP MUCH AND BOTTOM
OUT IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND FOG MAY BE VERY SLOW TO DISSIPATE
DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. BECAUSE OF THIS...INCREASED SKY COVER
AND LOWERED TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS AROUND 30 DEGREES. SURFACE
HIGH CENTER MOVES TO THE SOUTH FOR THE WEEKEND...INCREASING THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WESTERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE FROM 5 TO 10 MPH...WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO LIMIT
ADDITIONAL FOG FORMATION...BUT THIS IS SOMETHING TO WATCH.
ASSUMING LESS FOG...MORE SUN AND A WARMING WESTERLY WIND...
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 30S EACH DAY. SUNDAY IN PARTICULAR MAY BE QUITE WARM WITH
SOME AREAS REACHING INTO THE 40S.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

MODELS ARE IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS A BIT MORE
CONSISTENT WITH COOL DOWN NEXT WEEK. THE OVERALL QUIET WEATHER
PATTERN CONTINUES WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING BELOW NORMAL BY NEXT
THU. WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST AS A COLD FRONT AND NW FLOW
ALOFT MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

.AVIATION...

EXPECT FOG AND LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT. AFTER
SUNSET...EXPECT IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP WITH DENSE FOG ONCE
AGAIN. GIVEN THE LIGHT SFC WIND FLOW...THESE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
PERSIST THROUGH FRI MORNING AT LEAST.

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST FRIDAY FOR NDZ027>030-038-039-
049-052-053.

MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST FRIDAY FOR MNZ001>009-013>017-
022>024-027>032-040.

ROGERS/DK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS GRAND FORKS ND

1004 AM CST THU FEB 2 2012

.DISCUSSION...

FOG CHALLENGES ABOUND. 15 UTC OBSERVATIONS SHOW MOST LOCATIONS
ACROSS NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MN STILL AT OR BELOW 1/4 MILE IN
DENSE FREEZING FOG. SOME SPOTS ACROSS EASTERN ND ARE BEGINNING TO
IMPROVE...BUT LATEST HRRR MODEL RUN SHOWS VISIBILITY AT OR BELOW
ONE HALF MILE ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN LITTLE TO NO WIND AND WILL
EXTEND CURRENT FREEZING FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CST. VISIBILITY
WILL IMPROVE INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH SOME PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. WILL CANCEL THE ADVISORY
EARLY IF NEEDED.

TEMPERATURES ARE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON FOG. ADJUSTED HOURLY CURVE TO
REFLECT A SLOWER REBOUND GIVEN PERSISTENT FOG...BUT COULD SEE HOUR
OVER HOUR RISES OF SEVERAL DEGREES ONCE FOG DISSIPATES. STILL
QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH FORECAST HIGHS...SO DID NOT MAKE
ANY CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS SHIFT. ONCE FOG IS GONE...WILL STILL SEE
SOME MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER FOR PARTLY SUNNY SKIES.

.AVIATION...

AREAS OF DENSE FOG AT KTVF AND KBJI WILL BE SLOW TO DISSIPATE AND
DO NOT EXPECT IMPROVED CONDITIONS UNTIL AFTER 18 UTC. FOR KGFK AND
KFAR...BEGINNING TO SEE IMPROVED VISIBILITY AND THIS SHOULD
CONTINUE AS FOG/LOW CLOUDS LIFT LATE THIS MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST AT KDVL. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE DAY.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM CST THU FEB 2 2012/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
MODEL ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH 84 HOURS. DIFFERENCE WITH
TIMING OF SHORT WAVES IN NORTHERN STREAM ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA.
OTHERWISE GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE STATES. WILL USE A COMBINATION OF
GFS AND ECMWF.

UPPER AIR PATTERN FORECAST TO AMPLIFY WITH RIDGE BUILDING OVER
WESTERN NORTH AMERICA AND A TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. PATTERN PROGRESSES SLOWLY EAST INTO THE PLAINS BY 84 HOURS
IN A REX LIKE PATTERN.

OBSERVED AREA SOUNDINGS INDICATE INVERSION AND TRAPPED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE OVER EASTERN ZONES IN A SLIGHTLY BACKED FLOW. MODEL
SOUNDINGS MAINTAIN THIS TRAPPED MOISTURE AND BACKED FLOW THROUGH FRI
UNDER LIGHT WINDS ALOFT. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD WHICH WILL INCREASE TEMPS ALOFT AND
SERVE ONLY TO ENHANCE THE INVERSION. CONCURRENTLY MODELS FORECAST LOW
LEVEL WINDS TO INCREASE AFTER FRI AND DRY OUT THE LOW LEVEL PROFILE.
WILL KEEP CLOUDS, PATCHY FOG, AND LOWER TEMPS OVER EASTERN ZONES
THRU AT LEAST FRI.

FIG LOOP SHOWED FOG CONTINUED TO EXPAND OVER NORTHWEST MN AND OVER
PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST ZONES AND OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST ND. WILL
EXPAND FREEZING FOG ADVISORY TO COVER MUCH OF THE AREA.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE LONG TERM AS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
REMAINS BETWEEN THE CUT OFF 500MB LOW IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
AMPLIFIED RIDGING IN CANADA...THE CENTER OF THE HIGH IN REX BLOCKISH
PATTERN. ALL MODELS KEEPING CENTRAL PLAINS CUT OFF PRECIP SOUTH OF
FA AND DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED. THICKNESS SLOWLY LOWER TOWARD THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS RIDGING BREAKS DOWN AND MORE N TO NW 500MB
FLOW SETS UP...THAT SAID...TEMPS WILL COOL TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK HOWEVER STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD.

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...FREEZING FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NDZ008-
016-027>030-038-039-049-052-053.

MN...FREEZING FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040.

ROGERS/HOPPES

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CLEVELAND OH

1005 PM EST FRI FEB 3 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL DRIFT TO THE EAST COAST
OVERNIGHT BUT A WEAK RIDGE WILL REMAIN EXTENDED ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES. LOW PRESSURE OVER OKLAHOMA WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD BACK ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON SUNDAY.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
IN COORDINATION WITH LOCAL STAFF AND NEARBY OFFICES...DECIDED TO
NUDGE PRECIPITATION A BIT FURTHER NORTH. LATEST OBSERVATIONS ARE
SHOWING THE PRECIPITATION AS FAR NORTH AS IOWA AT THIS TIME AND
GOES ALONG WELL WITH THE LATEST HRRR MODEL. SCARY PART IS THE HRRR
TAKES THE PRECIPITATION OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z IN
THE MORNING. WILL ERR ON THE SIDE OF JUST NUDGING PRECIPITATION
FOR NOW AND MENTION TO MIDNIGHT SHIFT THAT PRECIPITATION MAY BE
FURTHER NORTH THAN FORECAST BY MORNING.

PRECIPITATION IN THE SOUTH SHOULD START OUT AS SNOW AND BECOME
MIXED WITH RAIN AT TIMES THEN ALL RAIN TOMORROW MORNING.

TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA CONTINUE TO DROP IN COOL LIGHT
NORTHERLY FLOW AND STILL EXPECTING LOWER 30S WEST AND UPPER 20S
EAST.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MAIN FORECAST ISSUE FOR THE SHORT TERM IS THE LOW MOVING ACROSS
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS BRING
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA DURING THE PERIOD AND THE QUESTION WOULD BE
HOW FAR NORTH ASSOCIATED PRECIP MAKES IT INTO THE AREA. USUALLY
THESE SYSTEMS DRAG DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST WHICH TENDS TO LIMIT PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND ACROSS
THE AREA. BELIEVE THAT WILL OCCUR AND HAVE LIMITED ANY PRECIP TO
THE FAR SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
SUNDAY...DEEP MOISTURE DROPS SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA AND ANOTHER
UPPER TROF DIGS ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES. EXPECT THIS TO BRING SO
INCREASE ON MOISTURE BUT STILL...AIRMASS REMAINS FAIRLY DRY AND
850MB TEMPS STILL ON THE MILD SIDE SO EXPECT DRY MILD CONDITIONS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL SAG ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY. THERE COULD BE A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS OFF OF LAKE ERIE IN ITS WAKE BUT IT WILL BE VERY
SHORT LIVED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR WEDNESDAY BUT
BEYOND THIS POINT MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE. BOTH HAVE A TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN 2/3 OF THE US BUT HAVE VERY DIFFERENT
SCENARIOS ON THE STRENGTH OF JET ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW. AT
THIS POINT WE HAVE LEANED ON AN HPC/ECMWF BLEND FOR THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED LOOK LIKE THEY WILL REMAIN
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE.

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXPECT TO SEE MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER GRADUALLY SPREAD
ACROSS THE REGION THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. LIGHT EAST TO NE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT MOST LOCATIONS AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES EAST STAYING JUST SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON SATURDAY.
THE ONLY ISSUE IS WHETHER SOME OF THE MVFR CIGS JUST NORTH OF TOL
WILL SAG BACK SOUTH INTO THE AREA TONIGHT.

A FEW OF THE TAF SITES MAY SEE SOME LIGHT FOG...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN SITES. OTHERWISE CEILINGS WILL LOWER BUT BELIEVE THEY
WILL REMAIN VFR INTO SATURDAY. SOME LIGHT SNOW/RAIN MAY OCCUR AS FAR
NORTH AS FDY AND MFD LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SAT BUT SINCE THE
PROBABILITY IS ONLY A CHANCE WILL JUST MENTION 4 TO 6SM VSBY IN
LIGHT PRECIP. MAYBE BY THE 06Z TAF TIME THERE WILL BE MORE CERTAINTY
AS TO HOW FAR NORTH THE NORTH WILL SPREAD AND THE TAFS CAN BE
ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AND TUE.

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE LAKE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK WELL SOUTH OF THE LAKE BUT SHOULDN/T POSE ANY
PROBLEMS FOR THE LAKE ITSELF DURING SATURDAY. MEANWHILE...THE MORE
SIGNIFICANT FOCUS WILL BE ON AN UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE LAKE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS WEAK UPPER TROUGH IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BRING HEADLINE CONDITIONS TO THE LAKE OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT WILL SHIFT WINDS AROUND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK
OVER THE LAKE MONDAY...THEN ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS
THE LAKE TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF HIGH PRESSURE BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ABE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON OH

951 PM EST FRI FEB 3 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT. A
LOW WILL TRACK JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT
PROVIDING WET WEATHER. ANOTHER HIGH WILL BUILD IN FOR THE EARLY PART
OF NEXT WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
HAVE INCREASED THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT JUST
SLIGHTLY...OWING TO THE LEAD SHOWERS ALREADY MOVING THROUGH
INDIANA IN THE ISENTROPIC LIFT PATTERN. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE
DEPICTING THAT A BAND OF PRECIPITATION MAY MOVE THROUGH THE
NORTHWEST PART OF THE CWA BEFORE ANYWHERE ELSE (THUS...NOT A PURE
WEST TO EAST PROGRESSION). TRIED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS IN THE
GRIDS...BEFORE INCREASING THINGS TO THE 80-100 POP RANGE IN THE SW
A BIT LATER IN THE MORNING.

THIS EVENT IS STILL ANTICIPATED TO BE PRIMARILY RAIN...BUT AN
ANALYSIS OF MODEL SOUNDINGS AND SURFACE TEMPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES INDICATES THAT A MIX IS POSSIBLE. THERE ARE SOME SUB-
FREEZING DEWPOINTS IN THE NORTHERN COUPLE TIERS OF COUNTIES...WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING A BIT BELOW THE ANTICIPATED CURVE AND
NEARING FREEZING IN A FEW SPOTS AS WELL. THE ONLY MODEL SHOWING
MUCH OF A WARM BULGE ALOFT WAS THE 18Z NAM...WITH THE 00Z VERSION
AND RECENT RUC RUNS SHOWING JUST A SLIGHT WARM LAYER OR ISOTHERMAL
PROFILE IN THE LOWEST FEW THOUSAND FEET. SO WHILE SNOW IS
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE...AND WHILE FREEZING RAIN IS NOT FAVORED...A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET AT THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION IS A
LEGITIMATE POSSIBILITY. EITHER WAY...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW TO TRACK EAST AND WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
INTO THE MID MS VALLEY SAT/SAT NIGHT. AXIS OF FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL
FORCING TO DEVELOP ACRS ILN/S SRN FA SATURDAY AFTN. ASSOCIATED
WEAK SFC WAVE TO TRACK EAST FROM THE LWR MS VLY ON SAT THRU THE TN
VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT. ILN/S SRN FA IN MOST FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR
PRECIP...WL CONTINUE CATEGORICAL POPS ACRS THE SRN HALF OF ILN/S
FA AND WILL BUMP UP POPS ACRS THE FAR NORTH INTO HIGH CHANCE
CATEGORY. EXPECT THE QPF FROM THIS EVENT RANGE FROM ONE QUARTER TO
ONE HALF INCH... AGAIN WITH THE BEST RAIN ACRS THE SOUTH. HAVE
TREND SATURDAYS HIGHS ON THE WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE TEMPS.

NUMERICAL MODEL SOLNS INDICATING THAT THE SRN STREAM UPPER LOW WILL
OPEN UP AND PHASE WITH NORTHERN STREAM TROF DROPPING SE THRU THE
OHIO VALLEY EARLY SUNDAY. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST WITH THE
ECMWF SOLN BEING THE MOST PROGRESSIVE AND THE NAM SOLN BEING THE
SLOWEST. HAVE TRENDED FORECAST TOWARD THE FASTER SOLN AND WILL
LINGER VERY LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH IN RESPONSE TO THIS
TROF. GIVEN THE CAA HAVE ALLOWED FOR A VERY BRIEF MIX ON THE NRN
FRINGE OF THE PRECIP VERY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.
HAVE TRENDED SUNDAYS HIGHS ON THE WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

IN NORTHERN FLOW...SURFACE RIDGE TO BUILD IN SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH LOWS GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE MID 20S TO THE UPPER 20S.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRY WEATHER IS INDICATED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM WEST TO EAST ALONG A ZONAL UPPER FLOW WILL
BE MOVING THROUGH ON MONDAY. A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND WEAKENING
SURFACE TROUGH FOR MONDAY NIGHT WILL LACK AMPLE MOISTURE SO KEPT
FORECAST DRY. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL HAVE A SHEARED SHORT WAVE
FOLLOWED BY A SURFACE HIGH...SO DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST.

THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING THURSDAY. LATEST RUN OF ECMWF
HAS A BROAD AREA OF PRECIPITATION EXTENDING NORTH TO ILN FROM AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE GULF COAST. KEPT POPS BELOW 25 PERCENT
AND WILL LET LATER SHIFTS EVALUATE FUTURE MODEL RUNS FOR A POSSIBLE
INCREASE IN POPS. FOR NEXT FRIDAY...SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD STAY
CONFINED TO THE GREAT LAKES SO WENT WITH POPS OF 20 OR LESS.

LOOK FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 40S. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO SLIP TOWARD NORMAL READINGS
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER...IF
THE CURRENT RUN OF THE ECMWF VERIFIES...READINGS MAY BE LOWER DURING
THAT TIME PERIOD.

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL MOVE TOWARD THE OHIO
VALLEY OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY.

THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE A RAIN EVENT...AND THE TAFS INDICATE AS
SUCH. HOWEVER...A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE
ONSET...AS HYDROMETEORS FALL THROUGH AN UNSATURATED AIRMASS.
THE INCREASING MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WILL EVENTUALLY LEAD TO
IFR CEILINGS. AS MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT...THE VISIBILITY FORECAST WILL GO NO LOWER THAN MVFR AT THIS
TIME. HOWEVER...IF BANDS OF SLIGHTLY HEAVIER RAIN ARE ABLE TO
DEVELOP (AS IS HINTED AT BY THE COMPUTER MODELS) SOME IFR
VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL.

SINCE THE OVERALL PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM IS SOMEWHAT NEBULOUS
AND ILL-DEFINED...THE SPECIFIC TRANSITIONAL TIMES/DURATIONS USED
IN THE TAFS ARE NOT OF THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE. THIS SET OF TAFS
WILL ATTEMPT TO SKETCH OUT THE MOST LIKELY LARGE-SCALE
SCENARIO...AND SUBSEQUENT ISSUANCES WILL BE ABLE TO PROVIDE MORE
DETAILS ONCE THE EVENT IS CLOSER AND UPSTREAM CONDITIONS CAN BE
MORE DIRECTLY ANALYZED.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITIES LIKELY SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...HATZOS
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...BINAU
AVIATION...HATZOS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHARLESTON WV

1246 AM EST THU FEB 2 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT WITH A LOW PRESSURE WAVE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT QUESTIONABLE HOW QUICKLY IT MOVES EAST.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE...
LOSING SOME OF THE ENHANCEMENT TO THE ECHOES ON RADAR...AND WHILE
STILL CARRYING THUNDER CHANCES...FEEL THUNDER WILL BE ISOLATED
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. RUC DATA DEPICTS THE AXIS OF THE SHORT
WAVE TROUGH ALOFT NOW EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...WHILE THE
SURFACE LOW RESIDES OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH THE COLD FRONT
TRAILING TO THE WEST SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. ONCE THESE SHOWERS
PASS THROUGH...SHOULD FIND SOME DRYING IN ITS WAKE WITH SOME
DRIZZLE LEFT OVER EARLY THURSDAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE STRONG GRADIENT IN MOISTURE WILL LINGER IN OUR CWA THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT.

IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON FINE TUNING OF THE HOURLY GRIDS...STILL TRIED
TO PUSH THE DEEPER MOISTURE BACK NORTH THIS EVENING. SOME OF THE
NEAR TERM MODELS...SUCH AS OUR WRF-NMM TRY TO DISCONNECT THE BAND
FORMING THIS EVENING SOUTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT...WITH THAT DEEPER
MOISTURE ALREADY IN PLACE OVER SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND EASTERN
TENNESSEE. LIKE THE IDEA OF ANOTHER MOISTURE MAXIMUM REFORMING JUST
SOUTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT...SO INCREASE POPS HTS-CRW-EKN DURING THE
01Z-04Z INTERVAL...THEN EXITING THE CENTRAL WV MOUNTAINS AROUND 12Z
THURSDAY. WILL ALSO GO WITH LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE FOR THE
LINGERING PCPN THURSDAY MORNING.

CLOUD COVERAGE ON THURSDAY QUESTIONABLE...BUT WAS SLOWER LIFTING THE
CLOUDS OVER THE SNOWSHOE TO BECKLEY REGION DURING THE MORNING.

HAVE NOT FINALIZED TEMPERATURES YET...BUT EXPECT TO GENERATE EVEN A
STRONGER NORTH TO SOUTH GRADIENT FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES...BY
RAISING THE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO ACROSS THE COAL
FIELDS AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.

CONCERNING THE BIG DAY...GROUNDHOG DAY...SINCE OUR LOCAL WV
GROUNDHOG SLEEPS IN UNTIL 15Z THURSDAY...AND ACTUALLY OBSERVES THE
OVERHEAD SKY...THE CLEARING PROCESS MAY BE UNDERWAY...WITH THE
CLOUDS LIFTING AND THINNING. HOWEVER...STILL HAD LOTS OF CLOUDS AT
THE WILDLIFE CENTER AT 15Z.

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW AND FRONT EXIT TO THE EAST THURSDAY MORNING...TAKING THE PRECIP
WITH IT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THAT LASTS THROUGH
FRIDAY. VERY LITTLE WRAPAROUND BEHIND THIS SYSTEM IN THE ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT FOR POST FRONTAL SHOWERS...WITH STRONG ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
AROUND BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. NO REALLY COLD AIR BEHIND THE SYSTEM
FOR THE PRECIP TO END IN ANY WINTRY FORM...COMPLIMENTS OF HIGH
PRESSURE...IN PART...OF PACIFIC ORIGIN. ALSO...NOT ONLY HAVE PRECIP
ENDING EARLY THURSDAY...BUT CLEARING NOT FAR BEHIND. HIGH PRESSURE
WITH SUNSHINE AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK. LOOK FOR TEMPS TO STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE
WORKWEEK.

BIG MODEL DISCREPANCIES CONTINUE FOR THE WEEKEND SYSTEM...SO WILL
LEAVE THAT ALONE FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STILL CONTINUES TO BE LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG TERM WITH
LITTLE MODEL AGREEMENT. GFS STILL INDICATES A SIMILAR PATTERN TO
PREVIOUS RUNS WITH LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT PUSHING
INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY...BEFORE SLIDING OFF TO THE EAST SUNDAY AS
A CLOSED LOW TO THE WEST OPENS UP INTO A WAVE...AND THE RESULTING
UPPER TROUGH PUSHES EAST THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY. CANADIAN AND
ECMWF ARE TRYING TO SHOW A SOMEWHAT SIMILAR PATTERN WITH THE LOW
OPENING INTO A WAVE AND A TROUGH PUSHING EAST THROUGH THE AREA...BUT
THEY ARE NOT AS PROGRESSIVE AS THE GFS. DID ELECT TO CONTINUE THE
FORECAST OF BROAD BRUSH OF POPS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY/MID NEXT WEEK WHEN HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY TRIES TO BUILD
INTO THE AREA. THE GOOD NEWS IS...TEMPS SHOULD OVERALL REMAIN WARM
ENOUGH FOR BULK OF PRECIPITATION TO BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN DURING
THE PERIOD. BEST CHANCE FOR ANY RAIN/SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
AFTER PASSAGE OF TROUGH WHEN COOLER AIR IS ABLE TO FILTER IN. BUT
EVEN THIS REMAINS UNCERTAIN AS ATMOSPHERE MAY DRY OUT BEFORE ENOUGH
COLD AIR IS IN PLACE.

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CB STILL NEEDED OVER THE TRI STATE AREA...CRW AND BKW OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS WITH WEAK LINGERING INSTABILITY WITH THIS LINE OF
SHOWERS MOVING IN. SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS CEILINGS TO BE IFR TO LIFR
THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE A GRADUAL RECOVERY TAKES PLACE.
CEILINGS ELSEWHERE MAINLY TO BE MVFR OR BETTER LESS A COUPLE HOURS
AT HTS WHERE IFR IS OCCURRING...BUT THINK FLUCTUATIONS THERE ARE
LIKELY AND HAVE ADDED A TEMPO GROUP TO COVER THIS. DESPITE
CLOUDS...SOME MIST AND FOG DEVELOPMENT COULD CREATE IFR
VISIBILITIES AT EKN AND CKB THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD WITH IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED AFTER SUNRISE.

VFR EXPECTED FOR THE LOWLANDS AFTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DISSOLVES.
THIS MOISTURE WILL GET HUNG UP IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND CARRY
RESTRICTIONS AT BKW AND EKN LATER THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY.
CLEARING EXPECTED BY 00Z IN THESE AREAS...AND MOUNTAIN VALLEYS
COULD BE PRONE TO FOG DEVELOPMENT THURSDAY NIGHT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MAY SEE IFR VISIBILITIES AT CRW AND PKB.
FLUCTUATIONS IN THE OBSERVATIONS LIKELY AS SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH.
CB MAY NOT MATERIALIZE AT CRW AND BKW.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE THU 02/02/12
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EST 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
CRW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M L L L M H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H M M H M L H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY M M L L M M M L H H M M
EKN CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M L M M H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY M L M M L L L L L H H H

AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE IN WV VALLEY FOG DAWN FRIDAY. POSSIBLE IFR IN
RAIN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB
NEAR TERM...KTB/26
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...26

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA

NWS SIOUX FALLS SD

900 PM CST FRI FEB 3 2012

.DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 900 PM CST/
MULTIPLE ISSUES GOING ON TONIGHT...ONE FOR OUR FAR SOUTHERN ZONES...
THE OTHER IS FOG CONCERNS FOR OUR NORTH. CURRENT AREA RADARS STILL
SHOW A BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION ALONG THE I 80 CORRIDOR. THE LATEST
NAM DOES POINT AT THE MID AND UPPER QG FORCING MOVING FURTHER
NORTHWARD...EXTENDING ALONG OUR FAR SOUTHERN ZONES LATE TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION...THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID LEVEL
PV ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THE ONLY PROBLEM IS...THE LOW LEVEL
STREAMLINES AROUND 850MB-750MB ARE ORIENTED OUT OF THE NORTHEAST...
USHERING IN SOME RELATIVELY DRIER AIR OFF THE SURFACE IN THE SIOUX
CITY TO STORM LAKE STRETCH. THOUGHTS ARE THAT THE SNOW GRADIENT IS
GOING TO BE EXTREMELY TIGHT ALONG OUR FAR SOUTHERN ZONES...ONE THAT
COULD PRODUCE A BUST EITHER WAY. AT THE MOMENT...AM GOING NEAR 4
INCHES RIGHT ALONG THE WOODBURY/MONONA COUNTY BORDER...BUT
DECREASING TO AROUND 2.8 TO 3.0 INCHES IN SIOUX CITY. THEN RAPIDLY
TAILING OFF HEADING NORTH OF THERE. STORM LAKE COMES OUT IN THE 1.5
INCH RANGE. SO TECHNICALLY IF ONE COULD ISSUE AN ADVISORY PER STRIP
OF LAND AND NOT BY COUNTY...FAR SOUTHERN WOODBURY...AND FAR SOUTHERN
DIXON/DAKOTA NEBRASKA MAY GET ADVISORY SNOW AROUND 4 INCHES. BUT
WILL LIKELY FORGO ISSUING AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME SINCE THE
SNOWFALL IS PROJECTED TO RAPIDLY TAPER OFF HEADING NORTHWARD. THE
ONE THING TO WATCH FOR IS THE CONVECTIVE AREA OF SNOW MOVING UP IN
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. HOW FAR NORTH THAT WILL GET IS STILL A QUESTION.
BUT AM BANKING ON SOME OF THAT GETTING INTO THE SIOUX CITY AREA LATE
TONIGHT.

TO THE NORTH...THE FOG HAS DISSIPATED SOMEWHAT. FURTHERMORE...
UPSTREAM VISIBILITIES IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA CONTINUE TO IMPROVE. WITH
THE SURFACE FETCH OF AIR CONTINUING OUT OF THE NORTHEAST ALL
NIGHT...AM BEGINNING TO WONDER ABOUT THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY BEING
NEEDED OR NOT. HOWEVER...THERE IS A LOT OF DENSE FOG FURTHER NORTH
IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF MINNESOTA. SO IT COULD BE CONCEIVABLE THAT
SOME OF THIS FOG COULD DRAIN DOWN INTO WHERE WE HAVE THE CURRENT
HEADLINE RIGHT NOW EVENTUALLY. SO WILL JUST LET THE HEADLINE RIDE
FOR NOW AND THEN WILL REEVALUATE AGAIN AROUND 3 OR 4 AM AND SEE IF
THE DENSE FOG AREA IS MOVING SOUTHWARD WITH THE FLOW.

.PREV DISCUSSION...
HAVE SEEN A BIT OF IMPROVEMENT IN VISIBILITY ACROSS SOUTHWEST MN THE
PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...NAMELY EAST OF THE RIDGE IN THE KMML AREA.
HRRR VISIBILITY FORECAST HAD ACTUALLY SHOWN THIS DELINEATION OVER
ITS PAST FEW RUNS...AND MAINTAINS HIGHER VISIBILITY IN KMML THROUGH
MUCH OF THE EVENING...WHILE ALSO SHOWING LOWER VISIBILITIES WORKING
WESTWARD INTO SD COUNTIES OF DENSE FOG ADVISORY BY 00Z. IF HRRR PANS
OUT AS SHOWN...CURRENT ADVISORY LOOKS GOOD WITH MINNEHAHA AND ROCK
COUNTIES ALSO SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR SUB-1/2SM VISIBILITIES. STRATUS
AND FOG SHOULD HOLD TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA FAIRLY
STEADY OVERNIGHT...AND BUMPED UP LOWS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST INTO
THE UPPER 20S.

AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...MAIN FOCUS
LOOKS TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA TOWARD I-80. HOWEVER...BOTH GFS
AND NAM SHOW AN AREA OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS LIFTING NORTH INTO
THE FAR SOUTHERN PART OF OUR CWA BY 09Z-12Z SATURDAY AS UPPER WAVE
LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. NAM SHOWING SOME WEAKENED STABILITY
ATOP THE FRONTAL SURFACE AROUND 12Z AS WELL...WHICH COULD RESULT IN
SOME HEAVIER SNOWFALL DURING THIS TIME. THAT WILL BE THE PERIOD OF
GREATEST CONCERN FOR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...AND EVENING SHIFT WILL WANT
TO CLOSELY EXAMINE THIS TO SEE IF EVENING MODEL RUNS MAINTAIN THIS
FEATURE.

AS IS TYPICAL WITH THESE TYPE OF SYSTEMS...THERE WILL BE A SHARP
CUTOFF TO PRECIPITATION/SNOW AMOUNTS ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
SYSTEM...SO TRICKY PART OF THE FORECAST IS DETERMINING WHERE THAT
WILL BE. FOR NOW...GREATEST CONSENSUS FROM 12Z MODEL RUNS PUTS THE
GRADIENT IN OUR SOUTHERNMOST FOUR COUNTIES...WITH AMOUNTS FROM NEAR
ZERO ALONG HIGHWAY 3...TO 3-4 INCHES IN FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
WOODBURY/IDA COUNTIES. WITH BULK OF THE AREA BELOW 3 INCHES...HAVE
OPTED TO FORGO ADVISORY FOR NOW...BUT EVENING SHIFT WILL MONITOR
CLOSELY.

RELATIVELY QUIET PATTERN SETTING UP IN THE MID AND EXTENDED RANGE.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SWINGS INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS BEHIND THE
DEPARTING LOW ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES LOOK
RELATIVELY MILD BEHIND THE EXITING UPPER TROUGH WITH BENIGN
NORTHWEST FLOW TURN MORE WESTERLY BY MONDAY. WITH FRESH SNOWPACK
LIMITED TO THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES...TEMPERATURES WILL MIX
INTO THE LOWER 40S ON SUNDAY AND WILL IMPROVE TO THE MID 40S WITH
BETTER MIXING ON MONDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE NEAR THE SUX AREA
WHICH WILL LIKELY BE A BIT COOLER WITH THE LINGERING SNOWPACK.

A WEAK UPPER TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY WITH LITTLE FANFARE OTHER THAN SOME INCREASED CLOUDS AND
SLIGHTLY COLDER TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS. BEYOND
TUESDAY NIGHT...MODELS ONCE AGAIN DIVERGE QUITE A BIT. ALL MODELS
SHOW A CONTINUATION OF THE DRY PATTERN...HOWEVER THE ECMWF DEVELOPS
A DEEP UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND INTRODUCES A STRONGER SHOT
OF COLD AIR LATE IN THE WEEK. DID KNOCK THE ALLBLEND TEMPERATURES
DOWN A FEW DEGREES LATE...BUT WITH A WARMER GFS SOLUTION...DID NOT
WANT TO DEVIATE TOO MUCH.

.AVIATION.../FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE/
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS
IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES OVERSPREAD THE AREA ON A
NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. SYSTEM PUSHING OUT OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL SPREAD RAIN AND SNOW THROUGH THE LOWER MISSOURI RIVER
CORRIDOR INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN IOWA THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
INTO AT LEAST MID DAY ON SATURDAY...BRINGING REDUCED VISIBILITIES
OVER THOSE AREAS IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS.

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SATURDAY FOR IAZ002-003.
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SATURDAY FOR MNZ071-072-
080-081-089-090-097.
NE...NONE.
SD...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SATURDAY FOR SDZ039-040-
055-056.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA

NWS SIOUX FALLS SD

600 PM CST FRI FEB 3 2012

.DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 314 PM CST/
HAVE SEEN A BIT OF IMPROVEMENT IN VISIBILITY ACROSS SOUTHWEST MN THE
PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...NAMELY EAST OF THE RIDGE IN THE KMML AREA.
HRRR VISIBILITY FORECAST HAD ACTUALLY SHOWN THIS DELINEATION OVER
ITS PAST FEW RUNS...AND MAINTAINS HIGHER VISIBILITY IN KMML THROUGH
MUCH OF THE EVENING...WHILE ALSO SHOWING LOWER VISIBILITIES WORKING
WESTWARD INTO SD COUNTIES OF DENSE FOG ADVISORY BY 00Z. IF HRRR PANS
OUT AS SHOWN...CURRENT ADVISORY LOOKS GOOD WITH MINNEHAHA AND ROCK
COUNTIES ALSO SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR SUB-1/2SM VISIBILITIES. STRATUS
AND FOG SHOULD HOLD TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA FAIRLY
STEADY OVERNIGHT...AND BUMPED UP LOWS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST INTO
THE UPPER 20S.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NASHVILLE TN

903 PM CST FRI FEB 3 2012

.UPDATE...

RADAR IMAGERY THIS EVENING SHOWS A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND
SPRINKLES OVER PARTS OF THE MID STATE...BUT SURFACE AIRMASS
REMAINS RATHER DRY AND MOST RAINFALL IS TO OUR SOUTH IN ALABAMA.
LATEST HRRR RUN INDICATES THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE SPREADING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MID STATE OVERNIGHT WITH SOME ADDITIONAL
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT BEHIND CURRENT ACTIVITY AS ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES
TO MOISTEN...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE LOOKS TO REMAIN SPARSE. HAVE
LOWERED POPS FOR THE EVENING HOURS SIGNIFICANTLY BASED ON THESE
REASONS. HRRR ALSO SHOWS CONVECTION OVER ARKANSAS MOVING EASTWARD
AND ENTERING THE WESTERN CWA BETWEEN 10-12Z...THEN SPREADING
THROUGHOUT THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THUS WILL MAINTAIN
CATEGORICAL POPS FOR THE MIDNIGHT TO SUNRISE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH
THESE RAIN CHANCES ARE ON THE HIGH SIDE AS BULK OF PRECIP WILL
MAINLY BE VERY LATE TONIGHT OVER WESTERN ZONES. AND SPEAKING OF
SATURDAY...LATEST NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY ALONG WITH MODEST SHEAR ON SATURDAY...SO A FEW STRONG
STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 PM CST FRI FEB 3 2012/

UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION FORECAST

AVIATION...
MSAS HAS SURFACE LOW CENTERED SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AT 00Z WITH A WARM
FRONT DRAPED DOWN ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS INTO MISSISSIPPI AND
SOUTHERN ALABAMA. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN CONFINED TO EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS WITH A STROKE OR TWO OF LIGHTNING
ALONG THE WARM FRONT DOWN IN SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. EXPECT FLYING
CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE AFTER MIDNIGHT AND DOWN TO MVFR BY 08Z AT
BNA AND AROUND 09Z AT CSV. THEN IFR BOTH BNA AND CSV BY DAYBREAK
SATURDAY. LAMP GUIDANCE KEEPS IFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH BNA AND CSV
DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY SO DID NOT DIFFER. THUNDER CHANCES LOOK
MINIMAL BOTH BNA AND CSV NEXT 24 HOURS.

BOYD

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM CST FRI FEB 3 2012/

DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS HAVE NOW OVERSPREAD THE MID STATE AND THE RAINFALL IS AS FAR
EAST AS FAR WESTERN TN. STORM SYSTEM THAT IS RESPONSIBLE FOR ALL OF
THIS IS LOCATED BACK OVER OK AT THIS HOUR. GOOD UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
FEED IS EVIDENT WITH GOOD DIRECTIONAL CONVERGENCE AS WELL.

THE TREND STILL REMAINS THAT THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL SPREAD ACROSS
THE MID STATE TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. THUS...CATEGORICAL POPS ARE
NEEDED. HOWEVER...PROJECTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR MIDDLE TN DO NOT
LOOK THAT APPRECIABLE. IN FACT...ESTIMATE QPF AMOUNTS WILL AMOUNT TO
ONE HALF TO 1 INCH AT THE MOST. THE REASON FOR THIS IS BECAUSE
THE UPPER ENERGY FEED IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE OVER THE NEXT 24 TO
36 HOURS. AS THIS HAPPENS...THE STRENGTH OF THE SFC LOW WILL
DECREASE THEREBY REDUCING THE SFC CONVERGENCE.

FOR THE FCST...AGAIN...CATEGORICAL POPS TO BE INCLUDED TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. SHOWALTERS APPROACH ZERO ALONG WITH SOME LOW LEVEL
CONVECTIVE POT ENERGY. WILL THEREFORE INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OR
CHC OF T ALONG WITH THE SHOWERS.

ASSOCIATED FROPA TO OCCUR SAT NT WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
CONTINUING BEHIND IT AS WEAK PVA REMAINS IN PLACE....SLIGHTLY COOLER
BEHIND THE FRONT.

FOR THE NEAR TERM TEMPS. ABOVE NORMAL VALUES TO CONTINUE. WILL
UNDERCUT BY A FEW DEGREES FOR PDS 4 AND 5.

IN THE EXT FCST...TEMPS TO REMAIN A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL WITH MOSTLY
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. GFS IS THE ODD MODEL OUT AS
IT ATTEMPTS TO BRING A GULF LOW NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SRN GA. WILL GO
AHEAD AND INCLUDE A LOW CHANCE OF RAIN BUT I WILL CERTAINLY UNDERCUT
THE MEX VALUES.

FOR THE LONG TERM TEMPS...WILL GENERALLY UNDERCUT THE MEX NUMBERS BY
A DEGREE OR TWO THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPS TO REMAIN ABOUT 3-7
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHAMBURGER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX

1127 PM CST WED FEB 1 2012

.AVIATION...
LOW CIGS AND FOG ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT MAINLY
INLAND. KGLS AND KLBX ARE BEING INFLUENCED BY EARLIER
PRECIPITATION AND THE FOG WILL BE LATE TO DEVELOP IN THESE AREAS.
MOISTURE IS IN THE AREA AND RAINS FROM TODAY REMAIN ON THE GROUND
SO DENSE FOG IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP BEFORE SUNRISE IN THESE AREAS.
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA IFR CIGS AND SOME AREAS OF DENSE
FOG HAVE DEVELOPED AND WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP DURING THE NIGHT
AND BECOME WIDESPREAD LIFR CIGS AND VSBY. CONDITIONS WILL BE SLOW
TO IMPROVE IN THE AM WITH CONDITIONS NOT BECOMING VFR UNTIL AFTER
18Z ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. LOW CIGS AND LOW VSBY WILL RETURN
TONIGHT AROUND 02Z-04Z BECOMING WIDESPREAD LIFR BY 06Z.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 807 PM CST WED FEB 1 2012/

DISCUSSION...
HAVE PARED BACK POPS FOR THE NIGHT EXCEPT OVER THE NORTH CLOSER TO
THE BOUNDARY. RUC AND 18Z NAM BOTH TRY TO DEVELOP A THIN BAND OF
PRECIP SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY BENEATH THE JET STREAK MOVING INTO
LA. WILL CARRY 20S NORTH AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR THIS FOR NOW AND
20/30S OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.

FOG SHOULD RETURN TO THE AREA TONIGHT AND HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FOR SETX AND COASTAL WATERS. T/TD SPREADS 2-5 DEGREES WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S...70 SOUTHWEST. WITH THE WET GROUND...CALM
WINDS/LIGHT SOUTH WINDS/SKIES THAT HAVE AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARED
EXPECT THE T/TD GAPS TO CLOSE QUICKLY WITH LARGE AREAS OF FOG
DEVELOPING AND BECOMING DENSE. A WARM DAY ON TAP TOMORROW WITH
LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW SHOULD LEAD TO TEMPERATURES WARMING AFTER
8 AM AND THE FOG DISSIPATING. DO HAVE SOME CONCERNS THAT WITH THE
MORE STABLE AIRMASS OVER THE COASTAL AREAS THE DENSE FOG MAY LAST
BEYOND 9 AM.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 528 PM CST WED FEB 1 2012/

AVIATION...
MOST PCPN HAS MOVED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. A FEW LIGHT RW
MIGHT IMPACT KGLS BUT ALL OTHER TAF SITES SHOULD BE FREE OF PCPN.
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL EARLY TONIGHT. ABUNDANT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG WITH GROUND WATER WILL LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT OF
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG OVERNIGHT. EXPECT DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP AND
IMPACT ALL TAF SITES MAINLY AFTER 06Z AND IMPROVING AFTER 15Z.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 18Z. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF
DENSE FOG THURSDAY NIGHT BUT WILL LIKELY BEGIN EARLIER IN THE EVENING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 PM CST WED FEB 1 2012/

DISCUSSION...
HOUSTON AIRPORTS CURRENTLY SITTING 2-3 DEGREES BELOW RECORD HIGHS
(82-IAH, 81-HOU) WITH A LIGHT WEST WINDS AND MSUNNY SKIES. PRECIP
HAS MOSTLY CLEARED THE COAST BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW MORE TO POP
UP INLAND CONSIDERING THE WARMTH. STORMS HAVE TEMPORARILY CLEARED
THE SEA FOG OUT OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS BUT DO EXPECT IT TO ROLL
BACK IN OVERNIGHT. ALSO EXPECT SOME FOG TO REDEVELOP INLAND ESP
AFTER MIDNIGHT AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL EDGE
INTO NRN PARTS OF THE CWA AND STALL.

MOISTURE POOLING SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...DAYTIME HEATING AND WEAK
IMPULSES IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT SHOULD PROVIDE ADDITIONAL SCT
SHRA/TSTM ACTIVITY ON THURS. WENT ABOVE GUIDANCE SUGGESTIONS ON
POPS...AND QUITE POSSIBLY NOT HIGH ENOUGH. EXPECT THE STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO MOVE BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT THRU THE DAY
AS LOW PRES DEEPENS TO THE WEST. EXPECT PRECIP TO TAPER OFF FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH THRU THE LATE AFTN HOURS.

REALLY NOT A LOT OF CHANGES FRI - SW FLOW ALOFT...HEATING AND
MOISTURE SHOULD LEAD TO SCT PRECIP. WORTH NOTING THE GOOD DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT DUE TO JET STRUCTURE AND SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.
MODELS IN SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE
NEXT FRONT. LOOKING LIKE IT WILL MOVE INTO SE TX LATE FRI NIGHT
AND OFF THE COAST AROUND NOON SATURDAY. ANTICIPATE A LINE OF
SHRA/TSTMS AHEAD/ALONG THE BOUNDARY.

NOT EXPECTING THINGS TO CLEAR OUT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AS WE
WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN A SW FLOW ALOFT. A SERIES IMPULSES
EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW ARE FCST TO CONTINUE MOVING OVERHEAD INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK PROVIDING A CONTINUED CHANCE OF PRECIP. TIMING OF
THESE FEATURES THIS FAR OUT IS NOT MUCH MORE THAN A GUESS...BUT
GFS/ECMWF ARE HINTING AT ANOTHER WET DAY ON SUNDAY. 47

MARINE...
MAIN SHORT TERM FCST ISSUE WILL BE SEA FOG. STORMS HAVE PUSHED IT
OFFSHORE BUT EXPECT IT TO RETURN OVERNIGHT AND PROBABLY CONTINUE
INTO SATURDAY (WITH SHORT TERM VISBY IMPROVEMENTS EACH AFTERNOON).
WINDS/SEAS SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE LATE THURS AND FRI AS PRES
GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES. NEXT FRONT FCST TO
PUSH OFF THE COAST EARLY SAT AFTN. EXPECT A LINE OF SHRA/TSTMS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. 47

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 63 78 63 77 60 / 20 40 20 50 60
HOUSTON (IAH) 64 78 63 77 65 / 10 40 20 50 60
GALVESTON (GLS) 65 72 63 71 63 / 20 30 20 40 40

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...BURLESON...CHAMBERS...
COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...GRIMES...HARRIS...
HOUSTON...JACKSON...LIBERTY...MADISON...MATAGORDA...
MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...WALKER...
WALLER...WASHINGTON...WHARTON.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT
TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

DISCUSSION...45
AVIATION/MARINE...34

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BLACKSBURG VA

1223 PM EST THU FEB 2 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SWING ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AND OFFSHORE
THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT LATER
TODAY BRINGING DRIER AND SOMEWHAT COOLER WEATHER FOR THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FROM THE MIDWEST PROVIDES
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN THIS WEEKEND.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1010 AM EST THURSDAY...

ONLY A FEW SPRINKLES OR A RAIN SHOWER REMAINS ACROSS SE WEST
VA...WHICH SHOULD DECAY IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...MAYBE PROVIDING A
SHOWER INTO CRAIG AND NORTHERN ROANOKE COUNTY AS IT MOVES SE. DRIER
AIR WILL EFFICIENTLY MIX OUT CLOUDS WITH SUNSHINE JUST ABOUT CWA
WIDE INTO THE AFTERNOON. WITH THAT...WINDS MAY GUST TO 30 MPH AT
TIMES ACROSS THE RIDGES.

AS OF 402 AM EST THURSDAY...

BASED ON REPORTS OF FOG BEING MORE WIDESPREAD...DECIDED TO GO AHEAD
WITH A SHORT TERM DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR A STRIP RIGHT ALONG THE
BLUE RIDGE GIVEN PERSISTENT VSBYS AOB 1/4 MILE FROM WILKES UP TO
PATRICK CTY. EXPECT WINDS TO QUICKLY MIX THE FOG OUT AFTER SUNRISE
WHEN SHOULD BE ABLE TO CANCEL BUT LIKELY ENOUGH OF A PROBLEM FOR
THE EARLY COMMUTE TO GO WITH THE ADVISORY AT THIS POINT. NO OTHER
CHANGES FOR NOW.

AS OF 255 AM EST THURSDAY...

COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SWING EAST
CROSSING THE MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS MORNING AND THE PIEDMONT BY
MIDDAY. BAND OF CONVECTION JUST AHEAD OF THE WAVE(S) IN
CONJUNCTION WITH A SMALL COMMA HEAD FEATURE UNDER THE UPPER VORT
LOBE MAY USHER IN GROUNDHOG DAY OVER THE NW WITH A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS IN LINE WITH THE LATEST HRRR AND
LOCAL RNK WRF WHICH PUSH THIS FEATURE ACROSS THE GREENBRIER
VALLEY/HIGHLANDS EARLY ON BEFORE WEAKENING HEADING EAST OF THE
RIDGES BY MID MORNING. IN BETWEEN MAY SEE ONLY SCTD SHRA AS THE
TRAILING AXIS TENDS TO SPLIT BUT EXPECT SOME ADDED SHRA BANDS WEST
AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE NW THRU MIDDAY. THUS WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS
ACROSS THE NW/NORTH AND FAR WEST EARLY THIS MORNING...TAPERING TO
CHANCE ELSW AND BASICALLY DRY AFTER EARLY AFTERNOON WITH DRYING
BEHIND THE PASSING FRONT. FOG ANOTHER ISSUE EARLY ON ACROSS THE SW
WHERE SOME CLEARING HAS LEAD TO POCKETS OF VERY DENSE FOG WHICH
CONTINUE TO COVER WITH AN SPS FOR NOW. EXPECT MIXING TO HELP
CLEANSE THINGS OUT TOWARD DAYBREAK AS THE FRONT ARRIVES. OTRW
LOOKING FOR GRADUAL CLEARING FROM NW TO SE THIS AFTERNOON BUT WITH
A GUSTY NW WIND AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BEHIND THE
EXITING LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST. THINK SHOULD STAY BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS GIVEN A MARGINAL 85H JET BUT APPEARS MIXING WILL
BE GREAT ENOUGH TO PUSH SOME GUSTS TO 35-40 MPH. FOLLOWED CLOSER
TO THE COOLER MAV MOS WEST TODAY WHERE COOL ADVECTION SHOULD KEEP
READINGS FROM RISING TOO MUCH...WHILE STILL MILD EAST WITH AT
LEAST LOW/MID 60S LIKELY GIVEN DOWNSLOPE.

UPPER TROF LIFTS OUT TONIGHT WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING SLIDING EAST
ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NW
LATE. DECENT DRYING SHOULD LEAD TO MAINLY CLEAR SKIES UNDER
DIMINISHING WINDS OVERNIGHT WITH GOOD RAD COOLING BY DAYBREAK. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL BACK TO BELOW FREEZING VALLEYS WHERE
COULD SOME FOG OTRW LOW/MID 30S FOR THE MOST PART.

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EST THURSDAY...

FRIDAY WILL START OFF WITH OUR AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE
EASTERN FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS. WILL EXPECT ABUNDANT SUNSHINE
UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ON THE MILD SIDE...DESPITE BEING COOLER THAN THURSDAYS HIGHS.
EXPECT FRIDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S
AREAWIDE. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE
EVENING AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...WITH A TROUGH DEVELOPING FROM THE LOW...AND EXTENDING
THROUGH KENTUCKY INTO WESTERN VIRGINIA BY SATURDAY MORNING.

DRIZZLE AND PERIODS OF RAIN WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
SATURDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS PUSH ATLANTIC
MOISTURE UP THE BLUE RIDGE. RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST
THROUGH THE DAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE
PLAINS...AND PUSHES ACROSS KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE...WHILE A WARM
FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH OUR AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE
EVENING. DESPITE THE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND PERIODS OF RAIN
KEEPING A LID ON DAYTIME HEATING...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REMAIN ON
THE MILD SIDE...WITH UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S EXPECTED WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...AND MID 50S TO BE FOUND FURTHER EAST.

ON SUNDAY MORNING...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH OUR REGION...AND
WILL EXIT OUR AREA TO THE SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON. SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE PIEDMONT REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS THE COLD CONTINUES TO SINK SOUTHWARD...AND HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHES IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...BUILDING SOUTHWARD
ALONG THE EASTERN FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS. HOWEVER...WILL STILL SEE
SPOTTY SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT REMAINS ANCHORED ALONG THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EST THURSDAY...

CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST AMONG THE VARIOUS GUIDANCE
REGARDING THE TIMING AND COVERAGE OR PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. WILL CONTINUE TO
FAVOR THE GUIDANCE PUT FORTH BY HPC...WHICH LEANS MORE HEAVILY ON
THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN.

FOR MONDAY...EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWER ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS EASTERN AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE REGION...AS A WAVE
DEVELOPS ALONG THE COLD FRONT SITUATED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF OUR
AREA. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT AS THE WAVE PUSHES
OFFSHORE AND THE COLD FRONT MOVES FURTHER SOUTH. THE REGION
TRANSITIONS TO A PROLONGED PERIOD OF NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND FRONT
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED BEHIND THE FRONT. A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR ENTERS THE REGION TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT AS A SECOND COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. ANTICIPATE
ONLY ISOLATED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS SE WV WITH ITS
PASSAGE...WITH DRY WEATHER ELSEWHERE. THE EASTERN EXTENT OF AN AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES ON WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH A TREND TOWARD
COLDER TEMPERATURES.

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1215 PM EST THURSDAY...

DECENT DOWNSLOPING WIND FROM DIRECTION NORMAL TO THE RIDGE
LINE...IN CONJUNCTION WITH VERY DRY AIR...IS RAPIDLY THINNING MUCH
OF THE THICK LLVL MOISTURE WHICH WAS AROUND THIS MORNING. QUITE
IMPRESSIVE FOR A WEAK EARLY FEB SUN ANGLE. THIN BANDS OF BKN CIGS
SHOULD DIMINISH TO NEARLY CLR SKIES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WINDS
WILL BE GUSTY FROM THE NW AT 15-30 KNOTS THEN DIMINISHING THIS
EVENING AND BECOMING NEAR CALM OVERNIGHT. THIS IN COMBO WITH THE
WET GROUND MAY ALLOW FOR AREAS OF MVFR IN FOG CLOSER TO THE RIVER
BOTTOMS AROUND KLWB AND PERHAPS KBCB LATE.

OTRW LOOKS LIKE A RETURN TO VFR ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE NORTH. HOWEVER MOISTURE WILL ATTEMPT TO MAKE A RETURN
LATER FRIDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN SITES.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK PERIOD REMAINS LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT
PENDING HOW FAR NORTH/EAST MOISTURE WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM MAKES IT
AND EXACTLY WHEN. COULD SEE SOME LOWER CIGS AND LIGHT RAIN ARRIVE
AS EARLY AS SATURDAY...BUT APPEARS MOST LIKELY SAT NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE STALLS TO THE WEST AND THEN SHEARS MOISTURE
UNDERNEATH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AS EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW
DEVELOPS. THIS SCENARIO WITH AT LEAST MVFR CIGS AND RAIN COULD
LAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER WAVE MOVES UP FROM THE GULF
STATES BUT VERY IFFY AT THIS POINT.

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/KM
NEAR TERM...JH/KM
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...DS/NF
AVIATION...JH/KM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BLACKSBURG VA

1015 AM EST THU FEB 2 2012

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1010 AM EST THURSDAY...

AS OF 402 AM EST THURSDAY...

AS OF 255 AM EST THURSDAY...

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EST THURSDAY...

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EST THURSDAY...

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 615 AM EST THURSDAY...

COLD FRONT CURRENTLY CROSSING THE MOUNTAINS WITH WIDESPREAD
MVFR/IFR CIGS ON THE WESTERN SLOPES AND AREAS OF IFR IN LOW
CLOUDS/FOG IN THE EAST. AS THE FRONT PASSES WILL SEE BANDS OF SHRA
AFFECT MUCH OF THE REGION WITH OCNL MVFR VSBYS THRU MID MORNING
BEFORE THE SHOWERS END. HOWEVER STILL EXPECT LOW CIGS TO HANG ON
IN SPOTS THIS MORNING BEFORE IMPROVING TO VFR AT ALL SITES AFTER
MIDDAY AS DEEPER MOISTURE EXITS. BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS WILL BE GUSTY
FROM THE NW AT 15-30 KNOTS THEN DIMINISHING THIS EVENING AND
BECOMING NEAR CALM OVERNIGHT. THIS IN COMBO WITH THE WET GROUND
MAY ALLOW FOR AREAS OF MVFR IN FOG CLOSER TO THE RIVER BOTTOMS
AROUND KLWB AND PERHAPS KBCB LATE.

OTRW LOOKS LIKE A RETURN TO VFR ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE NORTH AND A BLOCKING PATTERN DEVELOPS. HOWEVER
MOISTURE WILL ATTEMPT TO MAKE A RETURN LATER FRIDAY NIGHT
ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN SITES.

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/KM
NEAR TERM...JH/KM
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...DS/NF
AVIATION...JH/KM/WP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BLACKSBURG VA

630 AM EST THU FEB 2 2012

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 402 AM EST THURSDAY...

AS OF 255 AM EST THURSDAY...

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EST THURSDAY...

DRIZZLE AND PERIODS OF RAIN WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
SATURDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS PUSH ATLANTIC
MOISTURE UP THE BLUE RIDGE. RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST
THROUGH THE DAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE
PLAINS...AND PUSHES ACROSS KENTUCKY AND TENNESEE...WHILE A WARM
FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH OUR AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE
EVENING. DESPITE THE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND PERIODS OF RAIN
KEEPING A LID ON DAYTIME HEATING...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REMAIN ON
THE MILD SIDE...WITH UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S EXPECTED WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...AND MID 50S TO BE FOUND FURTHER EAST.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EST THURSDAY...

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 615 AM EST THURSDAY...

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ032.
NC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ003-019.
WV...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/KM
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...DS/NF
AVIATION...JH/KM/WP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS BLACKSBURG VA

406 AM EST THU FEB 2 2012

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 402 AM EST THURSDAY...

AS OF 255 AM EST THURSDAY...

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EST THURSDAY...

DRIZZLE AND PERIODS OF RAIN WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
SATURDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS PUSH ATLANTIC
MOISTURE UP THE BLUE RIDGE. RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST
THROUGH THE DAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE
PLAINS...AND PUSHES ACROSS KENTUCKY AND TENNESEE...WHILE A WARM
FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH OUR AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE
EVENING. DESPITE THE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND PERIODS OF RAIN
KEEPING A LID ON DAYTIME HEATING...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REMAIN ON
THE MILD SIDE...WITH UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S EXPECTED WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...AND MID 50S TO BE FOUND FURTHER EAST.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EST THURSDAY...

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1159 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

THE FORECAST HAS CHANGED FOR THE EAST. CIGS SHOULD STAY ABOVE 1KFT
FROM ROANOKE EAST...WITH SUB 1KFT CIGS MORE LIKELY IN THE MTNS
UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES TOWARD 12Z. SHOWERS WILL BE MOST
CONCENTRATED FROM LWB TO LYH AND NORTH THE REST OF THE NIGHT AS
DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST...WITH THE FRONT MOVING IN
FROM THE NW AROUND 09Z TO 15Z.

LOOK FOR THE CIGS TO IMPROVE TO VFR AT ALL SITES AFTER MIDDAY
THURSDAY. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY FROM THE NW AT 15-25 KNOTS THEN
WEAKENS IN THE EVENING THURSDAY.

WET GROUND MAY SET THE STAGE FOR MVFR VIS WITH INCOMING HIGH
PRESSURE THURSDAY NIGHT.

LOOKS LIKE A RETURN TO VFR ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE NORTH AND BLOCKING PATTERN DEVELOPS. HOWEVER MOISTURE
WILL ATTEMPT TO MAKE A RETURN LATER FRIDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS
WESTERN SITES.

UNSETTLED WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FOR THE BULK OF THE
WEEKEND...CIGS DROPPING BACK TO MVFR OR LOWER...WITH LIGHT RAIN
POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS SATURDAY PERHAPS LASTING INTO SUNDAY WITH AN
EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPING. ANOTHER FRONT MAY SPREAD RAIN
AND MVFR CIGS INTO LWB/BLF WITH GUSTY WINDS.

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ032.
NC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ003-019.
WV...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/KM
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...DS/NF
AVIATION...JH/KM/WP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BLACKSBURG VA

339 AM EST THU FEB 2 2012

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 255 AM EST THURSDAY...

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EST THURSDAY...

DRIZZLE AND PERIODS OF RAIN WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
SATURDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS PUSH ATLANTIC
MOISTURE UP THE BLUE RIDGE. RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST
THROUGH THE DAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE
PLAINS...AND PUSHES ACROSS KENTUCKY AND TENNESEE...WHILE A WARM
FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH OUR AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE
EVENING. DESPITE THE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND PERIODS OF RAIN
KEEPING A LID ON DAYTIME HEATING...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REMAIN ON
THE MILD SIDE...WITH UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S EXPECTED WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...AND MID 50S TO BE FOUND FURTHER EAST.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EST THURSDAY...

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1159 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

LOOK FOR THE CIGS TO IMPROVE TO VFR AT ALL SITES AFTER MIDDAY
THURSDAY. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY FROM THE NW AT 15-25 KNOTS THEN
WEAKENS IN THE EVENING THURSDAY.

WET GROUND MAY SET THE STAGE FOR MVFR VIS WITH INCOMING HIGH
PRESSURE THURSDAY NIGHT.

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/KM
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...DS/NF
AVIATION...JH/KM/WP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

535 PM CST FRI FEB 3 2012

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
336 PM CST FRI FEB 3 2012

AT 3 PM...WATCHING THE LOW CLOUDS ERODE ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
THINKING THAT THESE LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR IN WISCONSIN THIS EVENING.
EVEN THROUGH THESE CLOUDS ARE DISSIPATING...DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM THE
SYSTEM TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. THESE
CLOUDS WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES GENERALLY AROUND 30 ACROSS
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR...AND IN THE LOWER
AND MID TEENS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.

WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SOME SNOW MELT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...THERE MAY BE SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN
QUESTION IS HOW DENSE THIS FOG MAY GET. THIS WILL GREATLY DEPEND
UPON THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR THAT ADVECTS INTO THIS AREA LATE
TONIGHT.

ON SATURDAY NIGHT...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SHEAR APART TO
OUR SOUTHWEST. AS THIS OCCURS...SKIES WILL CLEAR ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
336 PM CST FRI FEB 3 2012

ON MONDAY...925 MB TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 2 TO 4C RANGE AHEAD
OF APPROACHING CANADIAN COLD FRONT. WITH MUCH OF THE AREA LESS
THAN 2 INCHES AND SUNNY SKIES...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE
MID AND UPPER 40S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE 03.12Z ECMWF. BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT...
THE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL END UP BEING CLOSER TO NORMAL /MID TO
UPPER 20S/ FOR BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S WHICH IS STILL
ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE 03.12Z ECMWF HAS BACKED
AWAY FROM ITS PRECIPITATION. SINCE THIS MODEL WAS THE ONLY ONE
WHICH WAS SHOWING IT...DECIDED TO DROP THE PRECIPITATION FOR THIS
TIME PERIOD.

BEYOND THIS TIME PERIOD...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN NORTH
AMERICA. THE MAIN QUESTION CONTINUES TO BE HOW FAR WEST WILL THIS
TROUGH EXTEND. LOOKING AT THE GFS ENSEMBLE...MANY OF ITS FAMILY
MEMBERS KEEP THE COLDEST AIR TO OUR NORTHEAST. HOWEVER THE 03.12Z
ECMWF HAS ITS COLDEST AIR CENTERED OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WAS THE FIRST TIME THAT THIS MODEL HAS SHOWN
THIS. WITH THE GFS ENSEMBLE SHOWING AN ARCTIC OSCILLATION RANGING
FROM 0 TO -4 AND THE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION MAINLY POSITIVE...
NOT SURE HOW MUCH OF THE COLD AIR WILL ACTUALLY MOVE INTO THE
REGION...THEREFORE...STAYED WITH THE ALL BLEND MAXIMUM/MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES. EVEN IF THE ARCTIC AIR DID MOVE INTO THE
REGION...THE CFS VERSION 2 CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT IT WOULD BE
VERY BRIEF.

.AVIATION...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
535 PM CST FRI FEB 3 2012

MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE FOCUSED ON CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
AT BOTH TAF SITES. STRATUS HAD CLEARED OUT OF NORTHERN WISCONSIN
EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON WITH THIS CLEARING EDGE WORKING
SOUTHWESTERLY. SURFACE REPORTS INDICATE THE EDGE OF THE STRATUS
NEAR A KGRK TO KISW LINE. 03.22Z RUC 975MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY PROG
SHOWS THIS BACK EDGE TO SLOWLY PUSH TOWARDS KLSE THIS EVENING.
DIFFICULT TO TIME THIS IN AS EDGE HAS SLOWED UP OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS. BUT FEEL SOMETIME BETWEN 02Z-04Z KLSE WILL BREAK OUT...WITH
JUST HIGH CLOUDS ABOVE. STRATUS NOT EXPECTED TO PUSH OUT OF KRST
UNTIL THE COMBINATION OF THE NORTHEAST FLOW AND DAYTIME MIXING
KICKS IN BETWEEN 18Z-19Z SATURDAY. AS FOR VISIBILITIES...WITH A
STRONGER LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW EXPECT VISIBILITIES IN THE MVFR
CATEGORY AT KLSE AND LOWERING TO IFR AT KRST...WITH IMPROVEMENT AT
BOTH TAF SITES AROUND MIDDAY SATURDAY.

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
242 PM CST FRI FEB 3 2012

WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...RABERDING

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

341 PM CST THU FEB 2 2012

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
340 PM CST THU FEB 2 2012

AT 3 PM...THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE LOW CLOUDS REMAINED EAST OF A
LINE FROM THE TWIN CITIES TO SAVANNA ILLINOIS /KSFY/. THE
COMBINATION OF SOUTHEAST WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE AND HIGH DEW
POINTS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...EXPECT THAT THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THIS CLOUD LINE WILL QUICKLY MOVE WEST EARLY THIS EVENING AND
QUICKLY LOWER. IN ADDITION...THE VISIBILITIES WILL QUICKLY FALL
AS THE TEMPERATURES RAPIDLY APPROACHES THE DEW POINTS THIS
EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE REDEVELOPMENT OF DENSE FOG ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS FOG WILL INITIALLY BECOME DENSE ON THE RIDGE TOPS
OF WESTERN WISCONSIN...SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...AND NORTHEAST IOWA
EARLY THIS EVENING...AND THEN SETTLE INTO THE RIVER VALLEYS OF
WESTERN WISCONSIN DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. DUE TO
THIS...DECIDED TO GO WITH A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING. WITH BOTH CLIMATOLOGY AND THE FOG TRENDS OVER THE
PAST TWO DAYS...DECIDED THAT NOON WOULD BE THE BEST ENDING TIME
FOR THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY.

WITH THE DEW POINTS AROUND 30...TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE A VERY HARD
TIME APPROACHING THE MOS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. AS A RESULT...
RAISED THE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES BY ONE CATEGORY.

FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THE 02.12Z MODELS CONTINUED A
TREND OF THE 01.18Z AND 02.00Z SHOWED AND IT SHIFTED THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM A BIT FURTHER SOUTH AS A REX BLOCK DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THE HIGH ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS BLOCK WILL FORCE THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FURTHER SOUTH...AND
AS RESULT THE PRECIPITATION REMAINS FROM SOUTHERN IOWA SOUTH TO
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. WITH THIS TREND BEING CONSISTENT...THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THIS TIME PERIOD WAS REMOVED FROM THE
FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
340 PM CST THU FEB 2 2012

FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...A PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA. THIS HIGH
WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. WITH THE MOS
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BIAS BEING TOO COOL AND LOSS OF THE DEEPER
SNOW PACK...TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED UPWARD BY ABOUT 3 DEGREES.

BEYOND THIS TIME PERIOD...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE AS A
MODERATE TO STRONG NEGATIVE ARCTIC OSCILLATION DEVELOPS. THIS
WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH ACROSS
EASTERN CANADA...GREAT LAKES...AND NEW ENGLAND. THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT THE ARCTIC AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LONG
WAVE TROUGH WILL EITHER JUST BRIEFLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OR
REMAIN TO OUR EAST. THIS ACTUALLY FITS IN WELL WITH A COMPOSITE
ANALYSIS WHICH SHOWS NO STRONG STATISTICAL SIGNAL BETWEEN THE
PHASE OF THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION AND THE AVERAGE FEBRUARY
TEMPERATURES FOR OUR AREA OF THE COUNTRY. THE WESTERN EXTENT OF
THIS TROUGH WILL BE GREATLY AFFECTED BY THE TELECONNECTION WITH THE
ANOMALOUS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAT IS CONTINUING TO OCCUR ACROSS
INDONESIA AND THE WESTERN PACIFIC. SINCE THIS CONVECTION IS VERY
SIMILAR TO WHAT WOULD BE SEEN IN PHASE 5. DURING THIS PHASE...LONG
WAVE TROUGHS TYPICALLY HAVE A HARD TIME MAINTAINING THEMSELVES
ACROSS THE MID AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS IS IN
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE CFS VERSION 2 WHICH HAS BEEN SHOWING
THIS SCENARIO CONSISTENTLY FOR THE PAST TWO WEEKS. FOR THE TIME
BEING...JUST COOLED THE TEMPERATURES TO EITHER SLIGHTLY BELOW OR
NEAR NORMAL FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

.AVIATION...THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY
1157 AM CST THU FEB 2 2012

MAIN AVIATION FORECAST CONCERN IS THE WESTWARD PROGRESSION OF LOW
STRATUS/FOG DECK ACROSS EASTERN MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA AND
MUCH OF WISCONSIN. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING BACK
EDGE OF STRATUS DECK EXTENDED JUST EAST-NORTHEAST OF RST TAF SITE
TO NEAR CHARLES CITY IOWA. LATEST 17Z METARS INDICATING CEILING
HEIGHTS IN THE LIFR AND IFR RANGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. WITH
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...WEAK WINDS IN THE NEAR SURFACE
BOUNDARY LAYER AND STRONG INVERSION IN PLACE OVER REGION. EXPECT
IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH TAF PERIOD AT LSE. BIG
QUESTION WILL BE STRATUS/FOG DECK MOVING BACK WESTWARD INTO RST
TAF SITE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LATEST 02.15Z RUC 975MB
RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS CURRENTLY HANDLING STRATUS DECK WELL PER
LATEST VISIBLE AND SHOWS THIS MOISTURE ADVECTING BACK WESTWARD
INTO RST BY 00Z FRIDAY. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS A VERY
SLOW PROGRESSION WESTWARD. WITH THIS...HAVE INTRODUCED LIFR/IFR
CONDITIONS AT RST TAF SITE BY 01Z FRIDAY AND CONTINUED THROUGH THE
REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
248 PM CST THU FEB 2 2012

WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST FRIDAY FOR WIZ041>044-053>055-
061.

DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST FRIDAY FOR
WIZ017-029-032>034.

MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST FRIDAY FOR MNZ096.

DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST FRIDAY FOR
MNZ079-086>088-094-095.

IA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST FRIDAY FOR IAZ009>011-019-029-
030.

DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST FRIDAY FOR
IAZ008-018.

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...DTJ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

1157 AM CST THU FEB 2 2012

.SHORT TERM...
1022 AM CST THU FEB 2 2012

WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND STRONG INVERSION OVER PARTS
OF NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN...VISIBILITIES CONTINUE
TO BE A QUARTER OF A MILE OR LESS PER LATEST 16Z METARS.
THEREFORE...HAVE EXTENDED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO 20Z THURSDAY OVER
THIS AREA. DENSE FOG HAS BEGUN TO BURN OFF OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA...AND VISIBILITIES HAVE
IMPROVED OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN. HAVE
ALLOWED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO EXPIRE OVER THIS AREA.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
330 AM CST THU FEB 2 2012

PLENTY OF DETAIL DIFFERENCES FOR THE DAY 4-7 PORTION OF THE FCST BUT
THE VAST PORTION OF IT LOOKS TO BE DOMINATED BY A DRY WEST-NORTHWEST
FLOW AS THE 500MB RIDGE AXIS FLATTENS SUN THEN REBUILDS OVER
WESTERN NOAM MON INTO WED. DETAIL DIFFERENCES ARE CENTERED ON
VARIOUS DIFFICULT TO TIME SHORTWAVES IN THE WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WITH THE DECAYING REX-BLOCK PORTION OF
THE FLOW ALOFT SETTLES OVER THE AREA FOR SUN. STRONGER NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT LOOKS TO BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA FOR MON-WED.
APPEARS ONE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA MON
AND ANOTHER WED. MOISTURE WITH WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW SYSTEMS IN THE
DAY 4-7 TIME-FRAME ALWAYS A QUESTION. FAVORING THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE
CONSENSUS...LEFT MON-WED DRY FOR NOW. WITH THE WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT TEMPS FOR SUN-WED TRENDING TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE
ARCTIC AIR LOCKED UP IN CENTRAL/NORTHERN CAN.

.AVIATION...THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY
1157 AM CST THU FEB 2 2012

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
1022 AM CST THU FEB 2 2012

WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WIZ041>044-
053>055-061.

MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MNZ096.

IA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR IAZ009>011-
019-029-030.

SHORT TERM...DTJ
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION...DTJ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GREEN BAY WI

1034 PM CST WED FEB 1 2012

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW LOW PRESSURE
OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM STRETCHING
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. WIDESPREAD
1-2KFT STRATUS EXISTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH EVEN LOWER CEILINGS AND FOG
EXIST BACK TO THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MEANWHILE FARTHER
UPSTREAM...A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS DIVING SE OVER THE ND/MANITOBA
BORDER. NOT MUCH PRECIP ACTIVITY WITH THIS WAVE...BUT AS IT TRACKS
TOWARDS NORTHERN WISCONSIN TONIGHT...LIGHT SNOW CHANCES AS WELL AS
CLOUD COVER ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.

TONIGHT...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL DRIFT
EAST OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT...WHILE A WEAK SHEARED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVES SOUTH OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN. FORCING IS
PRETTY WEAK WITH THIS WAVE AND MID-LEVELS STRUGGLE TO SATURATE.
STILL THOUGH...DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE LOW ENOUGH TO WARRANT AT
LEAST FLURRIES OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND WILL
KEEP A TENTH OR TWO OF ACCUMS ALONG THE U.P. BORDER.
OTHERWISE...THE LIGHT WIND REGIME AND AMPLE MOISTURE STUCK BENEATH
THE BL INVERSION ARE SUPPORTIVE OF THE LOW STRATUS STICKING AROUND
ALL NIGHT LONG. IF HOLES IN THE CLOUDS OCCUR...THEN FOG WOULD
DEVELOP. SO WENT PESSIMISTIC WITH CLOUD COVER FOR THIS FORECAST.
LOWS WILL ONLY FALL A FEW DEGREES WITH THE CLOUD COVER.

THURSDAY...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EXIT NE WISCONSIN DURING THE
MORNING AND WILL LEAVE A CHANCE OF FLURRIES IN THE FORECAST.
OTHERWISE...PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL STICK AROUND THE REGION.
925MB TEMPS DO WARM A FEW DEGREES OVER CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN IN THE AFTERNOON. SO WILL SHOW WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS IN
THE MORNING ERODING THERE FIRST TOMORROW AFTERNOON. TEMPS REMAIN
DIFFICULT PENDING POTENTIAL SUNSHINE AND WILL GO UPPER 30S NORTH TO
MIDDLE 40S SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...THU NGT THRU NXT WED. SPLIT FLOW REMAINS THE RULE
ACROSS THE CONUS DURING THE EXTENDED PART OF THE FCST. ONLY REAL
PBLM TO BE THE EVENTUAL MOVEMENT OF A MODEST CLOSED UPR LOW DURING
THE SUNDAY/MON TIME PERIOD. MDLS HAVE DRIFTED THIS SYSTEM FARTHER
NORTH (ESP THE ECMWF/UKMET) WHICH WOULD NOW BRING A CHC OF PCPN TO
PARTS OF THE FCST AREA. ONCE THIS SYSTEM DEPARTS..A BRIEF SHOT OF
COOLER AIR OVERSPREADS THE GREAT LKS...BUT ONLY APRS TO BE A BLIP
ON THIS WARM WINTER AS TEMPS LOOK TO WARM AGAIN LATER NXT WEEK.

HI PRES TO STRETCH FROM SRN SASKATCHEWAN EWD INTO WRN ONTARIO...
COUPLED WITH ANOTHER HI PRES OVER WRN PA...WL KEEP THE TRANQUIL
WEATHER GOING THU NGT. THERE IS A WEAK THERMAL TROF AT THE SFC
OVER NRN SECTIONS OF THE GREAT LKS WHICH WOULD KEEP MORE CLOUDS
OVER NRN WI THAN CNTRL/E-CNTRL WI. HOWEVER...TIME SECTIONS/FCST
SNDNGS INDICATE THAT MSTR JUST ABV THE SFC MAY BE TRAPPED BLO AN
INVERSION...THUS MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED THROUGHOUT ALL OF NE
WI. MIN TEMPS WL BE HELD UP BY THESE CLOUDS AND FAVOR THE WARMER
SIDE OF GUIDANCE.

ATTENTION TURNS TOWARD THE CNTRL CONUS AS A CLOSED UPR LOW EXITS
THE ROCKIES AND MOVES INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS ON FRI. INCREASING
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN DRAWING GULF MSTR NWD THRU
THE OZARKS INTO THE MID-MS VALLEY WITH SHWRS/TSTMS BREAKING OUT.
MEANWHILE...HI PRES TO EXTEND FROM THE NRN PLAINS EAST THRU NRN
SECTIONS OF THE GREAT LKS AND PROVIDE A DRY EASTERLY FLOW INTO WI.
MAY STILL BE DEALING WITH LINGERING LOW CLOUDS WHICH WOULD PUT A
CRIMP ON MAX TEMPS. FOR NOW...HAVE TEMPERED READINGS DOWN A DEGREE
OR TWO FROM THE PREV FCST...BUT STILL WELL-ABOVE NORMAL.

AS THE UPR LOW SLOWLY TRUDGES ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS FRI NGT...
GULF MSTR WL MAKE A SURGE NORTH TOWARD THE GREAT LKS THANKS TO A
50 KT SW LOW-LVL JET. THE AREA OF HI PRES REMAINS ANCHORED OVER
NRN SECTIONS OF THE GREAT LKS...THUS SETTING UP A BATTLE BETWEEN
THE ENTRENCHED DRY AIR AND INCOMING MSTR. HAVE KEPT NRN WI PARTLY
CLOUDY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR CNTRL/E-CNTRL WI.
THIS SET-UP WOULD PROVIDE FOR A WIDE RANGE IN TEMPS WITH THE NORTH
FALLING INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE TEENS...WHILE THE LAKESHORE AREAS
ONLY DIP INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S. THE CLOSED UPR LOW IS FCST
TO MOVE E-NE INTO THE MIDWEST (VCNTY SRN IA) ON SAT. SOUTHERLY
WINDS OVERRUNNING A WRMFNT STRETCHED FROM THE MIDWEST E-SE INTO
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...WL BEGIN TO SPREAD CLOUDS NWD INTO WI BY
SAT AFTERNOON. STILL EXPECT A NICE DAY ACROSS NE WI WITH MAX TEMPS
A GOOD 10 TO 15 DEGS ABV NORMAL.

MDL INCONSISTENTCY PERSISTS WITH THE HANDLING OF THE SYSTEM HEADED
INTO SUNDAY AND THIS RESULTS IN POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SENSIBLE
WEATHER DIFFERENCES FOR THE FCST AREA. IF THIS SYSTEM TRACKS NE...
IT WOULD BRING A LGT SNOW OR SNOW/RAIN THREAT TO MUCH OF NE WI. AN
EWD TRACK WOULD ONLY BRUSH CNTRL/E-CNTRL WI WITH PERHAPS A DUSTING
TO A COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH OF SNOW. PREFER TO TAKE A CAUTIOUS
APPROACH HERE UNTIL THE MDLS SETTLE DOWN AND WL ONLY MENTION A SML
POP GENERALLY ALONG/SOUTH OF A MFI-SUE LINE. SML POPS WOULD THEN
BE NEEDED INTO SUNDAY NGT AS THE SYSTEM EITHER MOVES INTO NRN OR
SRN SECTIONS OF THE GREAT LKS RGN. SOME EVIDENCE OF IMPROVING
CONDITIONS FOR MON AS THE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY WITH A WEAK UPR RDG
SLIDING INTO WI. MAX TEMPS TO REMAIN WELL ABV NORMAL WITH PLENTY
OF MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S EXPECTED.

A SECONDARY CDFNT DROPS SWD THRU WI MON NGT...BUT MDLS VARY AS TO
THE EXTENT OF THE COLD AIR TO FILTER INTO THE RGN. THE 12Z ECMWF
HAS BACKED OFF QUITE A BIT WITH 8H TEMPS FALLING INTO THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE TEENS BLO ZERO (COMPARED TO -20C ON ITS PREV RUN). THE GFS
IS COMPARABLE WITH ITS PREV RUN WITH 8H TEMPS AROUND -10C. BASED
ON THE SPLIT FLOW PATN...WL LEAN TOWARD THE GFS SOLN WHICH KEEPS
TEMPS ABV NORMAL THRU TUE. WL NEED TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL OF LK
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS FOR VILAS CNTY MON NGT INTO TUE AS TRAJS BECOME
FAVORABLE. HAVE ADDED A SML CHC POP THERE FOR NOW. OTHERWISE...HI
PRES TO START BUILDING EWD FROM THE NRN PLAINS AND KEEP THE REST
OF NE WI ON THE QUIET SIDE. THIS BROAD/STRONG AREA OF HI PRES
SETTLES SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE CNTRL CONUS BY NXT WED AND WL
CONT TO PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS TO NE WI. ANY LK EFFECT ACROSS
VILAS CNTY WL CEASE AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE RGN. EVEN THO
TEMPS MAY COOL A BIT...ANTICIPATE READINGS TO REMAIN ABOUT 5 DEGS
ABV NORMAL FOR EARLY FEB.
&&

.AVIATION...

WEST WINDS AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE OVER WESTERN MN TO HELP ADVECT LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG OVER MN/IA INTO WI OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
WILL ALSO BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH
DEW POINTS WOULD PROMOTE FOG FORMATION. THUS WILL STAY WITH
PESSIMISTIC IFR/MVFR CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH MUCH OF THU AFTERNOON. WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING CHANCE OF FLURRIES TO THE FAR
NORTH OVERNIGHT.

TE
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

1031 PM CST WED FEB 1 2012

.SHORT TERM...
1030 PM CST WED FEB 1 2012

EXPANDING DENSE FOG ADVISORY ANOTHER TIER OF COUNTIES EASTWARD.
UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
311 PM CST WED FEB 1 2012

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE PRECIPITATION CHANCES SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. THE 01.12Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM CONTINUE TO BE
DIFFERENT IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY LIFTING
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MIDWEST
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS DO SUGGEST THE
PRECIPITATION IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE
CONFINED MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION TYPES...THE 01.12Z GFS
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE SNOW MAINLY AT NIGHT AND A MIXTURE OF
RAIN AND SNOW DURING THE DAY. AFTER 12Z MONDAY...THE DETERMINISTIC
GEM/GFS/ECMWF ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH BUILDING SURFACE
RIDGE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE UPPER MIDWEST. DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY INTO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

.AVIATION...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
534 PM CST WED FEB 1 2012

CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES REMAIN THE MAIN CONCERNS. LIFR
CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE AT KRST LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE
LOWER MVFR CEILINGS RESIDE AT KLSE. WEAK 925MB TROUGH IS LOCATED
OVER SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...WHERE SURFACE WINDS HAVE SWITCHED TO
THE WEST WHERE VISIBILITIES ARE P6SM. 01.21Z RUC MOVES THIS TROUGH
ACROSS THE TAF SITES BETWEEN 03Z-06Z THIS EVENING...WITH WINDS
BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. DRIER AIR LOOKS TO ADVECT INTO THE
AREA AT THIS TIME. THE QUESTION IS WILL THIS BE ENOUGH DRY AIR TO
RAISE THE VISIBILITIES. MODEL TRENDS WOULD SUGGEST YES AND THUS
WENT VISIBILITIES RISING AFTER 03Z AT KRST INTO THE MVFR
CATEGORY. AS FOR KLSE...VISIBILITIES LIKELY TO LOWER PERHAPS INTO
THE 2-3SM RANGE LATER THIS EVENING WITH CEILINGS REMAINING AROUND
010KFT. NOT AS CONFIDENCE WITH CEILINGS RISING UNTIL AFTER 06Z
THOUGH. VFR CONDITIONS THEN LOOK TO SET UP AFTER 15Z AT BOTH TAF
SITES AND CONTINUE THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY.

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
1026 PM CST WED FEB 1 2012

WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THURSDAY FOR WIZ032-033-041-
053>055-061.

MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THURSDAY FOR MNZ079-086>088-
094>096.

IA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THURSDAY FOR IAZ008>011-018-
019-029-030.

SHORT TERM...RABERDING
LONG TERM....DTJ
AVIATION...RABERDING

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHEYENNE WY

325 PM MST THU FEB 2 2012

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

HAZARDOUS WINTER STORM CONTINUES TO LOOK ON TRACK TO ARRIVE THIS
EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND THE WESTERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE. 500MB RUC ANALYSIS AT 20Z SHOWS THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH
CLOSING OFF TO THE EAST OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LOW IS CURRENTLY PRODUCING AN
AREA OF IR ENHANCEMENT STRETCHING FROM DENVER TO GOODLAND. THE
MODELS AGREE IN INCREASING LLVL N-NE UPSLOPE WINDS THRU THE EVENING
AND MOISTENING THE LOW/MID LEVELS. WHILE THE CURRENT DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS ARE HIGH TO THE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE (15-20F)...LOW
LEVEL COLD-AIR ADVECTION AND TOP-DOWN MOISTENING WILL RESULT IN
SATURATION BY THIS EVENING. LOOKS LIKE THE PERIOD FROM 00Z-06Z IN
PARTICULAR IS FAVORABLE FOR HIGH SNOWFALL RATES ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY.
A BUFKIT TIME-HEIGHT PLOT FROM KCYS SHOWS THE COMBINATION OF
EASTERLY 700MB WINDS AND UPWARD MOTION IN THE DENDRITE GROWTH ZONE
BEING MAXIMIZED BETWEEN 00Z-06Z. SNOWFALL ACROSS THE NE PANHANDLE
WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE TONIGHT WHEN THE MIDLEVEL DYNAMICS
ARRIVE.

THE 500MB LOW WILL BEGIN ITS PROGRESSION TO THE NORTHEAST ON
FRIDAY MOVING...MOVING ACROSS EASTERN CO AND NORTHWESTERN KS. THE
HEAVIEST SNOWFALL ON FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY BY AFTN...IS EXPECTED OVER
THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE CLOSEST TO THE 700MB
LOW. 700MB FCTS AT 18Z FRI SHOW AN AXIS OF HIGHER NE WINDS (AROUND
35 KTS) STRETCHING ACROSS CHEYENNE COUNTY. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AT KSNY
AT 18Z SUPPORT GUSTS TO 35 KTS...THUS WILL CONTINUE THE BLIZZARD
WARNING ACROSS CHEYENNE COUNTY. ANY SUBSTANTIAL MIDLEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS IS PROGGED TO BE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA THROUGHOUT
THE ENTIRE EVENT. THUS...NOT EXPECTING OVERLY HIGH SNOWFALL
RATES...HOWEVER THE LONG DURATION OF LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE WILL PRODUCE
STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 7 TO 10 INCHES ALONG INTERSTATE
80 THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE
OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE NEAR THE I-80 SUMMIT.
AMOUNTS WILL DROP OFF TO THE NORTH AND WEST...IN AREAS FURTHER
REMOVED FROM THE MIDLEVEL LOW. SNOW WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST OVER THE CWA BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE MAIN 500MB LOW
CONTINUES ITS PROGRESSION EASTWARD AND THE SFC HIGH SETTLES OVER
SOUTHEAST WY.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

12Z GFS AND ECMWF 500 MB SYNOPTIC PATTERNS SIMILAR...LEADING TO
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THEIR RESPECTIVE MODEL SOLUTIONS.

SATURDAY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT WILL BE MOVING OFF TO OUR
EAST...THUS DECREASING SNOW CHANCES ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

SUNDAY...SLOW WARMING TREND ON TAP AS HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES RISE.
DRY WITH LACK OF LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE.

MONDAY...ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS OUR
COUNTIES...THOUGH THE BULK OF THE COLDER AIR WILL REMAIN NORTH AND
EAST OF OUR AREA. CONTINUED DRY WITH LIMITED LOW AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE.

TUESDAY-THURSDAY...DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL. WARMING
TREND WILL CONTINUE AS HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES RISE.

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS

THROUGH 00Z...CIGS AND VISIBILITIES LOWERING
TO IFR IN SNOW AND FOG ACROSS CARBON COUNTY WITH MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION. VFR ELSEWHERE.

AFTER 00Z...WIDESPREAD IFR AND LIFR DEVELOPING IN SNOW AND FOG
AT RAWLINS...LARAMIE...CHEYENNE AND SIDNEY ALONG WITH MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION. MVFR DUE TO CLOUDS...SNOW AND FOG DEVELOPING AT
CHADRON...SCOTTSBLUFF AND ALLIANCE.

AFTER 12Z...WIDESPREAD IFR IN SNOW AND FOG...WITH LIFR AND VLIFR AT
TIMES AT LARAMIE...CHEYENNE AND SIDNEY. MOUNTAINS OBSCURED. RUBIN

.FIRE WEATHER...NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM FRIDAY FOR WYZ106-WYZ107-WYZ116-
WYZ117-WYZ118-WYZ119.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM FRIDAY FOR WYZ103-WYZ114-
WYZ115.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THURSDAY TO 11 PM FRIDAY FOR
WYZ108.
NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THURSDAY TO 11 PM FRIDAY FOR
NEZ003-NEZ019-NEZ096.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THURSDAY TO 11 PM FRIDAY FOR
NEZ020-NEZ021-NEZ054.
BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 11 PM THURSDAY TO 11 PM FRIDAY FOR NEZ055.

SHORT TERM/FIRE WEATHER...FINCH
LONG TERM/AVIATION...RUBIN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ALBANY NY

1252 AM EST SAT FEB 4 2012

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AREA OF CLOUDS AND FLURRIES STILL OVER THE REGION...AND BASED ON
OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS...FEW CHANGES NEEDED IF ANY THROUGH SUNRISE.

PREV AFD BELOW...

AS OF 930 PM EST...THE LATEST REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR...AND THE KTYX
RADAR HAS SHOWN AN INCREASE IN REFLECTIVITIES OVER THE TUG HILL
PLATEAU AND THE WRN DACKS /NRN HERKIMER AND NW HAMILTON COUNTIES/...
AS THE COLD FRONT HAS REACHED THE WRN SHORES OF LAKE ONTARIO...AND
THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY. WE INCREASED THE POPS TO LIKELY
VALUE FOR AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW OVER THE WRN DACKS OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. THE LATEST NAM AND HRRR STILL SHOWS THE FRONT LACKING
GOOD MOISTURE CONVERGENCE FOR MUCH IN THE VALLEYS...AND ESPECIALLY
FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST. WE KEPT SOME SLIGHT AND
LOW CHC POPS OVER THE SRN GREENS...NRN AND ERN CATSKILLS..AND THE
WRN MOHAWK VALLEY UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE CLOUDS
THICKENED AND LOWERED QUICKLY OVER THE SRN ZONES. WE INCREASED THE
CLOUD COVER EVEN MORE OVERNIGHT...AND GRADUALLY TAPERED TO PARTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS TOWARDS DAYBREAK...AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN THE
WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY FROM NW TO SE. WE ALSO BROUGHT UP TEMPS A
COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE
CLOUD COVER PERSISTING A LITTLE LONGER.

PREVIOUS NEAR TERM UPDATE...

PREVIOUS NEAR TERM...

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOR THE PERIOD FROM SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT EXPECT DRY
WEATHER ACROSS THE FA WITH A FAIRLY LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL KEEP THE SYSTEM TRACKING
FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE VIRGINIA COAST FAR ENOUGH
SOUTH OF OUR REGION SUCH THAT THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PCPN SHIELD
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF NEW YORK STATE. THE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SEASONABLE AIRMASS...ALTHOUGH TEMPS
SATURDAY NIGHT MAY BE A LITTLE COLDER THAN RECENT NIGHTS AS WEAK
COLD AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NIGHT. HIGHS ON SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO
AROUND 40 SOUTHEAST WITH SATURDAY BEING THE SLIGHTLY WARMER OF THE
2 DAYS. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE SINGLE
DIGITS NORTHWEST TO UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 20 SOUTHEAST WITH LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS NORTHWEST TO LOWER 20S
SOUTHEAST.

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER
VALLEY TONIGHT. IT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE REGION BY AROUND SUNRISE
THIS MORNING...AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM QUEBEC FOR MUCH
OF THE WEEKEND.

CLOUDS HAVE ENCOMPASSED THE AREA...WITH MAINLY VFR CIGS AND VSBYS.
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS AT KGFL/KALB THROUGH 09Z. WILL ALSO
MENTION VCSH FOR A FEW POSSIBLE LIGHT FLURRIES AT KGFL/KALB. THE
SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WITH THE DRY COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE BY DAYBREAK. A FEW-SCT STRATOCUMULUS WILL BE ACROSS ERN NY
WITH VFR CONDITIONS DOMINATING THROUGH THE EVENING.

WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE WEST-SOUTHWEST AROUND 3-6 KT BEFORE THE COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH...WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND
THE FRONT BY SUNRISE. WINDS SPEEDS INCREASE TO AROUND 6-10 KTS BY
LATE THIS MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT-MON...MAINLY VFR. NO SIG WX.
MON NIGHT-TUE...VFR. SLIGHT CHC OF -SHSN.
TUE NIGHT-WED...VFR. NO SIG WX.

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
AVIATION...JPV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ALBANY NY

1229 AM EST SAT FEB 4 2012

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AREA OF CLOUDS AND FLURRIES STILL OVER THE REGION...AND BASED ON
OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS...FEW CHANGES NEEDED IF ANY THROUGH SUNRISE.

PREV AFD BELOW...

PREVIOUS NEAR TERM UPDATE...

PREVIOUS NEAR TERM...

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER
VALLEY TONIGHT. IT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE REGION BY TOMORROW
MORNING...AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM S-CNTRL QUEBEC FOR
MUCH OF THE WEEKEND.

OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT-MON...MAINLY VFR. NO SIG WX.
MON NIGHT-TUE...VFR. SLIGHT CHC OF -SHSN.
TUE NIGHT-WED...VFR. NO SIG WX.

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LINCOLN IL

200 AM CST SAT FEB 4 2012

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 200 AM CST SAT FEB 4 2012

SURFACE LOW WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHWEST MISSOURI EARLY THIS
MORNING...WHILE ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW WAS STILL BACK OVER NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS. INITIAL BAND OF RAIN HAD ADVANCED INTO EASTERN
ILLINOIS...WITH AREAS WEST OF I-55 TAPERING DOWN TO DRIZZLE. A
WEDGE OF DRIER AIR WAS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST KANSAS...ADVECTING INTO MISSOURI.

INITIAL FORECAST CONCERN REVOLVES AROUND THE EXTENT OF RAINFALL
TODAY AND THIS EVENING. LATER ON...POTENTIAL COOL SNAP LATE IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD IS THE FOCUS.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...

LATEST HRRR SHOWING THE CURRENT BAND OF RAIN SHOULD BE EXITING THE
EASTERN CWA TOWARD SUNRISE...BUT BAND OF PRECIPITATION IN A
BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR FROM IOWA TO INDIANA WILL
EXPAND AND SINK A BIT FURTHER SOUTH. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING
DRY AIR EXPANDING ABOVE 700 MB AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...TRENDING
THE PRECIPITATION INTO MORE OF A DRIZZLE OR VERY LIGHT RAIN. MAIN
SURFACE LOW SHOULD MAKE STEADY PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY BY EVENING...BUT 00Z MODELS SHOWING THE UPPER LOW LAGGING
BEHIND QUITE A BIT THROUGH SUNDAY AND POTENTIALLY EVEN INTO EARLY
MONDAY. WILL LINGER SOME PRECIPITATION INTO THIS EVENING...BUT
PERSISTENT NORTH/NORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW INTO THE AREA WILL
EVENTUALLY TAKE ITS TOLL AND DRY OUT THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE...THUS
WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY DESPITE THE
UPPER LOW BEING RELATIVELY CLOSE BY.

SOUNDINGS KEEP THE CLOUDS FAIRLY THICK TODAY...SO DID NOT SEE A
REASON TO STRAY FROM THE CONSENSUS OF THE TIGHTLY PACKED NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE. TONIGHT IS A BIT TRICKIER...AS THE SPEED OF THE CLEARING
FROM THE NORTH MAY DROP TEMPERATURES QUICKER THAN EXPECTED. FOR
NOW...WILL GO WITH LOWS BELOW FREEZING OVER MOST AREAS NORTH OF
THE I-72 CORRIDOR...WITH 20S QUITE LIKELY ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN
CWA. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

A PIECE OF LEFTOVER ENERGY FROM THE CURRENT UPPER LOW IN THE
PLAINS WILL GET STRANDED OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THIS WEEKEND...
BEFORE FINALLY MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. BY MIDWEEK.
SPLIT UPPER FLOW WILL KEEP MOISTURE ADVECTION IN OUR AREA RATHER
MINIMAL...SO WILL ONLY GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION...
PRIMARILY ON WEDNESDAY.

IN THE LONGER RANGE...UPPER PATTERN BEGINS TO SHIFT QUITE A BIT AS
A LOW CUTS OFF OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA. ALL OF THE MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS PLACE OUR AREA IN A NORTHWEST FLOW FOR THE LATTER PART OF
THE WORK WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR EVEN A BIT BELOW NORMAL
FOR A CHANGE. LOBES OF ARCTIC AIR SHOULD SWING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION...WITH OUR AREA RECEIVING GLANCING BLOWS WITH
POTENTIAL FOR A MORE SUBSTANTIAL BLAST OF COLD AIR TOWARD NEXT
WEEKEND.

GEELHART

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1148 PM CST FRI FEB 3 2012

IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS THE RAIN
CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA. RADAR LOOPS INDICATE THAT PCPN IS
WANING AND THIS SHOULD LEAD TO PCPN BECOMING MORE DRIZZLE
OVERNIGHT. VIS SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 2-3SM AS WELL. CIGS NOT
FALLING AS EXPECTED BUT DO BELIEVE THAT THEY WILL FALL TO BELOW
2KFT BY MORNING. BMI ALREADY BELOW 1KFT BUT DO NOT THINK THIS WILL
ONLY BE FOR NEXT 3 HRS...WITH IMPROVEMENT TIL MORNING. MODELS
INDICATE THE PCPN THINNING OUT AND SPREADING EAST AND WEST OF THE
AREA SO EXPECT DRIZZLE DURING THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. PCPN COULD END AROUND 01Z WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR AT
MOST SITES...EXCEPT BMI. WINDS WILL BE EASTERLY AND THEN BECOME
NORTHEASTERLY TOMORROW NIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES
EAST...SOUTH OF THE STATE.

AUTEN

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN

350 AM EST SAT FEB 4 2012

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM SECTIONS HAVE
BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

.SYNOPSIS...

LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST THROUGH MISSOURI AND ACROSS THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY TODAY. THIS WILL BRING RAIN TO CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY...WITH
DRY MILD WEATHER ANTICIPATED SUNDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY
WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. A SHIFT TO COLDER AND
POTENTIALLY MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE
WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH SHARPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES.

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

LIGHT RAIN SLOWLY EXPANDING AND OVERSPREADING THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING. TEMPS RANGED FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S AS OF
08Z.

LOW PRESSURE PASSING THROUGH SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND INTO THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY REMAINS THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE NEAR TERM. SO
FAR...RESIDUAL DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS HAS REALLY LIMITED RAINFALL
ACROSS THE REGION. LAPS SOUNDINGS SHOWING THE SATURATION OF THE
BOUNDARY LAYER IS HAVING TO CONTEND WITH EASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW
LEVELS. AS BETTER LIFT AND FORCING ARRIVES THROUGH DAYBREAK...
BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD SATURATE FULLY WITH PRECIPITATION BECOMING
WIDESPREAD. SOUNDING DATA AND RUC/06Z NAM BOTH SHOWING BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPS NEAR/JUST BELOW FREEZING FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING
GRAZING NORTHERN COUNTIES. EVEN WITH SURFACE TEMPS REMAINING IN THE
UPPER 30S...THIS COOLING ALOFT MAY BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW A FEW FLAKES
TO MIX IN WITH THE RAIN THIS MORNING FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WITH THAT BEING SAID...ANY SNOW/MIX PRECIP REPORTS SO
FAR HAVE BEEN CONFINED TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF INDIANA/ILLINOIS IN
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO DEFORMATION BAND THROUGH THE MID LEVELS. LEAVING
ANY MIX OF RA/SN MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST OVER NORTHERN COUNTIES
THIS MORNING AS CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN THIS OCCURRING AT THIS
TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR OBSERVATIONS CLOSELY AND ADJUST AS
NECESSARY.

MOST RECENT SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE FROM THE HRRR AND RUC BOTH
BRINGING AREA OF STEADIER RAINFALL CURRENTLY ACROSS ILLINOIS THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. DEEPER MOISTURE AND STRONGER FORCING
SHIFTS EAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH RAINFALL INTENSITY EXPECTED TO
DROP OFF TO JUST LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE AS THE LOWEST 8-10KFT REMAIN
SATURATED. WILL CARRY CATEGORICAL POPS THIS MORNING...DROPPING POPS
BACK FOR THE AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR ALOFT STEADILY PRESSES INTO THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. E/NE WINDS AT 10-15MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS
TO AROUND 20 MPH FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WILL MAKE FOR RAW CHILLY
CONDITIONS.

TEMPS...TRICKY SETUP FOR TEMPS TODAY AS MOST LOCATIONS ARE LIKELY TO
EXPERIENCE HIGHS SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. COMBINATION OF THICK
STRATUS DECK...PRECIPITATION AND STEADY EAST/NORTHEAST FLOW IN THE
LOW LEVELS DOES NOT APPEAR CONDUCIVE AT ALL TO MUCH OF A RISE IN
TEMPS LATER TODAY. 850MB TEMPS DO WARM A BIT INTO THE AFTERNOON AND
THAT MAY BE GOOD FOR A BUMP IN TEMPS OF A COUPLE DEGREES ONCE THE
STEADIER RAIN SHIFTS EAST. NORTHERN COUNTIES MAY REMAIN IN THE 30S
ALL DAY.

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

FORECAST CHALLENGES IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON ENDING OF THE PRECIP
THIS EVENING AND TEMPS THEREAFTER AS HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS INTO THE
REGION.

MODELS CONTINUE TO FAVOR A FASTER ENDING TO PRECIP LATE TONIGHT.
UPPER LOW REMAINS BEHIND WITH LITTLE MOISTURE AND FORCING TO WORK
WITH AS THE SURFACE WAVE MOVES QUICKLY EAST INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ADVECT SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AND SERVE TO
OVERWHELM ANY REMAINING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WITH LACK OF ANY
SIGNIFICANT FORCING...ANTICIPATE LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE WILL END FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH FROM LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. AREAS NORTH OF
I-70 SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY FROM MIDNIGHT ON WITH PRECIP ENDING AT
LOCATIONS FURTHER SOUTH PRIOR TO DAYBREAK SUNDAY. BOUNDARY LAYER
WILL BEGIN COOLING DURING THE EVENING BUT DEEPER MOISTURE AND MOST
IF NOT ALL PRECIP SHOULD BE FINISHED BEFORE CONDITIONS BECOME
SUPPORTIVE FOR LIGHT SNOW TO MIX IN. WHILE A FEW FLAKES ARE
CERTAINLY NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...CHANCES APPEAR SO LOW TO KEEP
ANY MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO
SHOW RAPID DRYING INTO THE LOW LEVELS LATE TONIGHT WITH NORTHERN
COUNTIES LIKELY TO CLEAR PRIOR TO DAYBREAK.

DESPITE THE REMNANT UPPER LEVEL FEATURE DRIFTING THROUGH THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...PRESENCE OF DEEP SUBSIDENCE AND
DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE BROAD HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL PROVIDE
TRANQUIL WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. ANY LINGERING CLOUDS SUNDAY MORNING WILL QUICKLY BE PUSHED
OFF TO THE SOUTH AS DRIER AIR FULLY TAKES HOLD OVER CENTRAL INDIANA.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW ABUNDANCE OF SUBSIDENT AIR AND RESULT SHOULD BE
MAINLY SUNNY SKIES FOR SUNDAY WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW. MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE OVER THE REGION.
MAY SEE A FEW CLOUDS MONDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT MOVES
INTO THE GREAT LAKES.

TEMPS...MOS GUIDANCE LOOKED QUITE REASONABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
HIGH TEMPS RECOVER INTO THE MID AND UPPER 40S FOR MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA ON BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LEANED TOWARDS COOLER
MAVMOS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THE PERIOD IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ASSOCIATED WITH SEVERAL UPPER WAVES PASSING THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA.

ALL MODELS BRIEFLY SHOW WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EARLY TUESDAY WHICH
WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY. HOWEVER...CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN PRIOR TO THE
ARRIVAL OF THE FIRST WAVE. THIS WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES
WITH READINGS EXPECTED TO BE NOT QUITE AS HIGH AS MONDAY...ALTHOUGH
STILL ABOVE AVERAGE.

ALL MODELS DEPICT AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE PASSING THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY
WITH THE GFS AND CANADIAN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO TIMING
WHILE THE ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER. WENT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
WEDNESDAY AND EARLY THURSDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SLOWER ECMWF
SOLUTION. ALLBLEND INITIALIZATION APPEARS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON
THIS COMPROMISE. PRECIPITATION TYPE COULD ALSO BE A CONCERN WITH
THICKNESS VALUES POSSIBLY BELOW 530 DM. THEREFORE...WENT WITH A
RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR WEDNESDAY BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW HEADING
INTO THURSDAY.

A STRONG UPPER LOW LOOKS TO DEVELOP NEAR HUDSON BAY BY LATE IN THE
PERIOD. THIS SYSTEM COULD EJECT A FEW MORE WAVES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA LATE IN THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND BUT WILL STICK WITH
A DRY FORECAST UNTIL THE MODELS HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE TIMING
OF ANY WAVES.

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 040900Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...

SHORT TERM MODEL DATA SUGGEST LIFT WILL INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...SO EXPECTING RAIN TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY/COVERAGE AS
SUNRISE APPROACHES. HEAVIER PRECIPITATION SHOULD RESULT IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS/CEILINGS TOWARDS
SUNRISE. IFR CEILINGS STILL LOOK PROBABLE BY MID MORNING. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

SHORT TERM MODEL DATA ALSO SUGGEST INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SOME
SURFACE WIND GUSTS AROUND 20KTS DEVELOPING BY MID MORNING FROM
070-090 HEADINGS. STARTING TO SEE EVIDENCE OF THIS OVER ILLINOIS.
MAY ADD SOME GUSTS TO THE FORECAST AT A LATER TIME IF THINGS TREND
IN THAT DIRECTION. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

CONDITIONS WILL LOWER OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS RAIN DEVELOPS FROM
THE SOUTH AND WEST. EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES BY 12Z.
DURING MORNING WIDESPREAD IFR AND LOCAL LIFR CEILINGS WILL
DEVELOP. VISIBILITIES MOSTLY MVFR WITH LOCAL IFR SATURDAY.

MAIN FORECAST QUESTION IS TIMING OF THIS. TAFS WILL PROBABLY HAVE
TO BE REVISED SEVERAL TIMES AS MORE INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE.

WINDS MOSTLY EAST 10-15 KNOTS.

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....HOMANN/RYAN
AVIATION...JK/JAS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

401 AM EST SAT FEB 4 2012

.SYNOPSIS...

00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW NW FLOW ALF OVER
THE UPR GRT LKS BTWN UPR RDG OVER WRN CAN AND TROF OVER QUEBEC. THIS
NW FLOW ALF IS KEEPING THE CLOSED LO RESPONSIBLE FOR HEAVY SN IN
COLORADO WELL TO THE SW OF THE UPR LKS...AND THIS WL REMAIN THE CASE
THRU THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH A NW FLOW ALF IS OFTEN ASSOCIATED WITH
VERY COLD AIR THIS TIME OF YEAR...THE AIRMASS OVER W AND CNTRL CAN
AS WELL AS THE NRN TIER OF THE CONUS IS PACIFIC IN ORIGIN. 00Z H85
TEMPS RANGE FM -4C AT APX/YPL TO -3C AT INL AND -2C AT GRB. AT THE
PAS NEAR LK WINNIPEG IN MANITOBA...THE 00Z H85 TEMP WAS 0C. COLDER
AIR IS PRESENT TO THE NE TOWARD THE VORTEX IN QUEBEC...BUT EVEN
THERE THE 00Z H85 TEMP WAS JUST -15C AT MOOSONEE AT THE S END OF
JAMES BAY. SINCE THE CWA IS NEAR THE CONFLUENCE ZN BTWN THE
PREVAILING NW FLOW ALF AND A SLY FLOW TO THE E OF THE CUTOFF LO IN
THE PLAINS...A SFC HI PRES RDG IS PRESENT FM MN ESEWD INTO LOWER MI.
LOCAL 00Z RAOBS SHOW A SHARP INVRN BTWN H85-95 ASSOCIATED WITH LARGE
SCALE SUBSIDENCE. TEMPS OVER THE CWA HAVE FALLEN SHARPLY EARLY THIS
MRNG TOWARD 10 ABOVE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE INTERIOR W UNDER THE
ACCOMPANYING MOCLR SKIES. BUT THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF LO CLD
STRETCHING FM ERN UPR MI N AND NWWD INTO ONTARIO WITH MSTR TRAPPED
BLO INVRN ALONG A SFC TROF ASSOCIATED WITH A SHRTWV DIGGING SEWD IN
THE NW FLOW ALF. ACCOMPANYING PCPN COVERAGE APPEARS TO BE LIMITED BY
THE STRONG INVRN/MID LVL DRYNESS DEPICTED ON THE 00Z YPL RAOB. THE
AIRMASS IS TOO WARM/STABLE FOR LES.
&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THRU SUN NGT/...

IN THE NEAR TERM...
EXPECT LO CLDS OVER THE KEWEENAW/ERN CWA AS SHRTWV IN ONTARIO DIGS
SSEWD AND LO PRES TROF SHARPENS TOWARD THE ERN CWA. THE ARRIVAL OF
THIS CLD COVER WL PUT A CHECK ON THE DIURNAL TEMP DROP. WHERE SKIES
REMAIN MOCLR AND WINDS LGT TOWARD THE WI BORDER...EXPECT TEMPS TO
FALL NEAR OR BLO 10F.

TODAY...
GUIDANCE REMAINS FAIRLY CONSISTENT SHOWING SHRTWV NOW OVER FAR NW
ONTARIO DIGGING INTO ERN UPR MI BY 00Z. CLDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE WL IMPACT MAINLY THE KEWEENAW AND ERN CWA. OPTED TO GO WITH
SCHC POPS OVER THE E NEAR OR JUST ON THE CYC SIDE OF THE SHRTWV
PASSAGE AND WHERE MODELS SHOW SHARPEST DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC.
WHILE THE CLDS OVER THE E WL LIMIT THE DIURNAL RECOVERY OF TEMP IN
THAT AREA...EXPECT THE MERCURY TO RECOVER TO WELL ABV NORMAL
READINGS OVER THE INTERIOR W AND SCNTRL TO ARND 40 PER MIXING TO H9
ON NAM FCST SDNGS.

TNGT...
SINCE THE AIRMASS TRAILING THE DEPARTING DISTURBANCE TO THE SE WL BE
TOO WARM FOR LES WITH H85 TEMPS FCST NO LOWER THAN ABOUT -5C...
EXPECT ANY LINGERING ISOLD -SHSN OVER THE E TO END EARLY ONCE THE
LARGER SCALE FORCING EXITS. WITH DNVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC/UPR
CONFLUENCE DVLPG THRU THE NGT CONTRIBUTING TO A SHARPENING SFC RDG
AXIS/MORE ACYC FLOW/DRYING...EXPECT SKIES TO TURN MOCLR WITH
INSUFFICIENT INSTABILITY EVEN FOR LK CLDS EVEN UNDER THE MORE
PERSISTENT NNW FLOW FCST OVER THE E. THE LOWEST MIN TEMPS WL BE NEAR
THE WI BORDER AWAY FM LK MODERATION IN THE NW H925 FLOW AND WHERE
WINDS WL TURN NEAR CALM.

SUN/SUN NGT...
SFC RDG IS PROGGED TO SINK TO THE S...WITH STRONG 25-35KT H925 W
WIND DVLPG ON ITS NRN FLANK AND TO THE S OF SHRTWV/ATTENDANT COLD
FNT MOVING ESEWD THRU ONTARIO. THIS FLOW WL ADVECT UNSEASONABLY WARM
PACIFIC AIR INTO THE UPR LKS. WITH DRY AIRMASS/PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
AND H85 TEMPS PROGGED TO REACH ARND 3C ON SUN AFTN...EXPECT TEMPS TO
PEAK WELL INTO THE 40S...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE THE W WIND
DOWNSLOPES OVER THE CNTRL. PERSISTENT STEADY W WIND ON SUN NGT WL
LIMIT THE DIURNAL FALL OF TEMP DESPITE MOCLR SKIES.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY/...

MAIN FEATURE INITIALLY IS TROUGH/COLD AIR DROPPING ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA AND GRAZING THE UPR LAKES INTO TUESDAY. HEIGHTS REBOUND SOME
INTO WEDNESDAY THEN APPEARS THAT AT LEAST PORTION OF POLAR VORTEX
OVR NORTHERN CANADA WILL TRY TO DROP ACROSS GREAT LAKES BY LATE WEEK.
DETAILS OF HOW THAT EXACTLY PLAYS OUT IS VERY MUCH IN DEBATE.

PRIMARY ISSUE TO START OFF IS ARRIVAL OF COLD FRONT/POP COVERAGE
LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING. ECMWF PREFERRED BY HPC WITH COLD
AIR INTRUSION AND TIMING OF SFC COLD FRONT. 925-850MB TEMPS ONLY
BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID TEENS BLO ZERO BY TUESDAY AM...SO NOT TALKING
A REAL ARCTIC AIR MASS BUT WILL SURELY FEEL MUCH COLDER COMPARED TO
THE UNSEASONABLE WARMTH THAT WILL BE OVR THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY.
STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES /SFC-925MB LAPSE RATES OVR 8C/KM/
SHOULD RESULT IN ANY SNOW THAT DEVELOPS LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY
EVENING ALONG AND AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT TO TAKE ON MUCH MORE OF A
CONVECTIVE NATURE. BOOSTED TEMPS AHEAD OF FRONT WITH MIXING TO 925MB
SUPPORTING HIGHS POSSIBLY NEAR 40 ONCE AGAIN...ESPECIALLY OVR SCNTRL
UPR MI WITH DOWNSLOPE WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY AND GIVEN LATER
ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT.

AFTER FROPA...THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD INTO MID MORNING TUESDAY
WHERE LOW-LEVEL WINDS AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE BLO H7 COMBINES WITH
THE COLDER AIR TO LEAD TO SCT LK EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. MAINLY NORTH
WINDS EXPECTED IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT...SO EXPECT BEST COVERAGE TO
SNOW SHOWERS OVR FAR WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL CWA. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IS LINGERING SFC BASED INSTABILITY RESULTS IN LESS
ORGANIZED LK EFFECT /SCATTERED TRANSIENT POCKETS OF SNOW SHOWERS
VERSUS TYPICAL BANDED STRUCTURE/. SEEMS THAT WHATEVER LK EFFECT
IS AROUND TO BEGIN DAY TUESDAY SHOULD FADE QUICKLY WITH WARMING
925-850MB TEMPS AND SHARP DRYING IN THAT LAYER. ECMWF INDICATES
850MB RH FALLING TO LESS THAN 20 PCT BY 18Z TUESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE RAPIDLY SLIDES ACROSS. TRENDED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
DRYING BY HAVING HIGHEST POPS THROUGH 18Z THEN DROP TO SLIGHT CHANCE
IN THE AFTN. IF ECMWF IS CORRECT...MOST SNOW SHOWERS WOULD LIKELY BE
DONE BY MID MORNING ON TUESDAY.

WEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING RETURN TO WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS
WEDNESDAY AND MAYBE INTO THURSDAY. LATE WEEK RETURN OF COLDER AIR
STILL NOT SET JUST YET. LATEST ECMWF IS NOW QUITE DIFFERENT
COMPARED TO GFS BY DELAYING COLDER AIR RETURNING UNTIL LATER FRI.
GFS SHOWS COLD PUSHING BACK INTO UPR LAKES AS EARLY AS THURSDAY.
OTHER THAN TWEAKING TEMPS UPWARD SOME ON WEDNESDAY...GIVEN THE LACK
OF CONSISTENCY...HAVE KEPT WITH A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE FOR ALL FCST
ELEMENTS FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED.
&&

.AVIATION /FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT COULD LEAD TO MVFR TO OCCASIONALLY VLIFR
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AT THE TAF SITES. LOOK FOR ANY LINGERING FOG TO
LIFT BY MID SAT MORNING AS VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN PREVAIL.
&&

.MARINE /FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST/...

WEST WINDS UP TO 20 KT TODAY WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. WESTERLY WINDS
INCREASE TO 25 KT SUNDAY AFTN INTO SUN NIGHT AS THE RIDGE MOVES TO
THE SOUTH TOWARD THE LOWER LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. A COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR LATE MONDAY AFTN. EXPECT WINDS UP TO 30
KT ALONG WITH SOME FREEZING SPRAY IN WAKE OF THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. LIGHER WINDS DEVELOP INTO WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES INTO THE AREA. STRONGER WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY OUT AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT
DROPPING INTO THE AREA FM CANADA. NW GALES ARE POSSIBLE BEGINNING
LATER THURSDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...KC
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...JLA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DULUTH MN

1123 PM CST FRI FEB 3 2012

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS.
LIFR VSBYS/CIGS IN FZFG HAS FORMED OVER KINL/KHIB/KBRD. THIS WILL
CONTINUE UNTIL 16Z WHEN THE LOW CLOUDS AND FZFG ERODE TO VFR.
EXPECT VFR AT KDLH/KHYR. LOW CLOUDS/FZFG WILL HAVE TO BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR ITS IMPACT AT KDLH AS THEY TRY TO MOVE E.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 909 PM CST FRI FEB 3 2012/

UPDATE...SOME DENSE FOG HAS FORMED IN THE SAME LOCATIONS AS LAST
NIGHT. HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY AS MORE LOCATIONS DEVELOP
DENSE FOG. HRRR AND LOCAL WRF CONFIRM THE DENSE FOG POSSIBILITY.
MADE A MINOR TWEAK TO MIN TEMPS. REST OF THE FORECAST UNCHANGED.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 533 PM CST FRI FEB 3 2012/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 PM CST FRI FEB 3 2012/

LONG TERM...[SUNDAY - THURSDAY]...
THE PERIOD SHOULD BEGIN WARMER THAN NORMAL AND MOSTLY DRY...WITH
MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES RETURNING FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 22 40 17 41 / 0 0 0 0
INL 21 37 14 38 / 0 0 0 0
BRD 22 38 19 39 / 0 0 0 0
HYR 20 41 17 40 / 0 0 0 0
ASX 23 41 19 41 / 0 0 0 0

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST SATURDAY FOR MNZ010-018-025-
026-033>036.

WI...NONE.
&&

AVIATION...GSF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO

1140 PM CST Fri Feb 3 2012

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...

**NOTE** KEAX WSR-88D radar remains out of service while it is being
upgraded and will be unavailable through Feb 12.

Medium Range (Sunday through Friday)...

Cutter

.AVIATION...

For the 06z TAFs: An inverted surface trough stretching northwest
across central Kansas will slowly move eastward through the night as
accompanying surface low tracks through central Missouri. Persistent
low level warm advection and moisture convergence will allow
widespread light rain and drizzle to develop through the overnight
hours. IFR CIGS are already common across the terminals ATTM, and
should continue to fall into LIFR later this morning as the surface
trough approaches. Visibility is expected to vary from 2SM to 4SM
through the night. Highest probability of consistently falling less
than 2SM will be after 09Z and continue to 15Z as surface trough
remains overhead.

Models suggest some minor improvement in CIGS and VIS towards mid-day
as winds turn back to the north northwest. Northwest winds and
isentropic downglide would also bring an end to drizzle. Models
remain consistent in bringing decaying snow band across the terminals
during the late aftn and evening hours. Light snow accumulations less
than an inch may be possible especially at KSTJ and KMCI. Will only
include RASN mix at KC terminals, but this may be changed completely
to snow during later TAFs.

Dux

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
SATURDAY NIGHT FOR MOZ001-002-011.

KS...NONE.
&&

WFO EAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS NORTH PLATTE NE

1128 PM CST FRI FEB 3 2012

.UPDATE...

.AVIATION...

WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS A WINTER STORM RAGES
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. FLIGHT CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR/MVFR
FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT AND DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AS THE
SFC LOW TRACKS THROUGH OKLAHOMA AND INTO MISSOURI.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 828 PM CST FRI FEB 3 2012/

UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...

RAISED THE STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL UP AROUND TRYON TO 22 INCHES BASED
ON A REPORT OF 17 INCHES AT RINGOLD...RADAR TRENDS AND THE LATEST
HRRR/RUC SOLNS THROUGH THE NEXT 12 HRS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 538 PM CST FRI FEB 3 2012/

UPDATE...

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 PM CST FRI FEB 3 2012/

DISCUSSION...

WILL PLAN ON LEAVING HEADLINES AS IS FOR NOW...AND BASED ON ONGOING
RPTS FROM THE CENTRAL SANDHILLS...MAY NEED TO EXPAND THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY INTO WESTERN CHERRY COUNTY.

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST SATURDAY FOR NEZ056>058-069.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ SATURDAY FOR
NEZ022-024>029-035>038-059-070-071.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ SATURDAY FOR
NEZ005-008>010-023-094.

SHORT TERM/EXTENDED...JACOBS
AVIATION...CDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON OH

1240 AM EST SAT FEB 4 2012

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
HAVE INCREASED THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT JUST
SLIGHTLY...OWING TO THE LEAD SHOWERS ALREADY MOVING THROUGH
INDIANA IN THE ISENTROPIC LIFT PATTERN. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE
DEPICTING THAT A BAND OF PRECIPITATION MAY MOVE THROUGH THE
NORTHWEST PART OF THE CWA BEFORE ANYWHERE ELSE (THUS...NOT A PURE
WEST TO EAST PROGRESSION). TRIED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS IN THE
GRIDS...BEFORE INCREASING THINGS TO THE 80-100 POP RANGE IN THE SW
A BIT LATER IN THE MORNING.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW TO TRACK EAST AND WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
INTO THE MID MS VALLEY SAT/SAT NIGHT. AXIS OF FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL
FORCING TO DEVELOP ACRS ILN/S SRN FA SATURDAY AFTN. ASSOCIATED
WEAK SFC WAVE TO TRACK EAST FROM THE LWR MS VLY ON SAT THRU THE TN
VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT. ILN/S SRN FA IN MOST FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR
PRECIP...WL CONTINUE CATEGORICAL POPS ACRS THE SRN HALF OF ILN/S
FA AND WILL BUMP UP POPS ACRS THE FAR NORTH INTO HIGH CHANCE
CATEGORY. EXPECT THE QPF FROM THIS EVENT RANGE FROM ONE QUARTER TO
ONE HALF INCH... AGAIN WITH THE BEST RAIN ACRS THE SOUTH. HAVE
TREND SATURDAYS HIGHS ON THE WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE TEMPS.

IN NORTHERN FLOW...SURFACE RIDGE TO BUILD IN SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH LOWS GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE MID 20S TO THE UPPER 20S.

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND MOVE
SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING ACROSS INDIANA HOWEVER NOT ALL OF THE
RETURNS ON RADAR ARE REACHING THE GROUND. MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN IS
OCCURRING ACROSS IL. RAIN WILL GRADUALLY MOVE INTO THE TAF SITES
LATE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE TAF SITES
DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. VSBYS WILL GENERALLY BE MVFR WITH THE
PRECIPITATION HOWEVER A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR VSBYS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT. CIGS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE ON SATURDAY AS WELL. IFR CIGS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA TAF SITES EXCEPT FOR KCMH
AND KLCK SATURDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES JUST SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...HATZOS
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...NOVAK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CLEVELAND OH

1144 PM EST FRI FEB 3 2012

PRECIPITATION IN THE SOUTH SHOULD START OUT AS SNOW AND BECOME
MIXED WITH RAIN AT TIMES THEN ALL RAIN TOMORROW MORNING.

TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA CONTINUE TO DROP IN COOL LIGHT
NORTHERLY FLOW AND STILL EXPECTING LOWER 30S WEST AND UPPER 20S
EAST.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED LOOK LIKE THEY WILL REMAIN
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE.

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LATEST MODEL RUNS SEEMS TO AGREE THAT SOME SNOW AND RAIN SHOULD
SPREAD ESE ACROSS FDY AND MFD BETWEEN 11Z AND 15Z THEN GET PUSHED
SOUTH OF THE AREA BY LATE IN THE DAY SAT. WILL LOWER VSBY AND CIGS A
LITTLE MORE FOR THE PRECIP.

PATCHY MVFR CLOUDS AROUND LAKE ERIE SHOULD EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE
LATER TONIGHT INTO THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF DAYLIGHT SAT BUT FOR THE
TIME BEING WILL BE PROBLEMATIC FOR TOL...CLE AND ERI.

WIDESPREAD VFR SHOULD TAKE OVER SAT EVENING AS DRIER AIR IS PULLED
SOUTH OVER THE WHOLE AREA.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AND TUE.

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ABE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NASHVILLE TN

1133 PM CST FRI FEB 3 2012

.UPDATE...FOR 06Z AVIATION FORECAST

.AVIATION...
CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER INTO MVFR CATEGORY
WITH THE ON-SET OF LIGHT RAIN BETWEEN 10 AND 12Z. SURFACE LOW AT 06Z
OVER JOPLIN MISSOURI WITH A WARM FRONT DRAPED DOWN THROUGH ARKANSAS
INTO SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD LATER TONIGHT
AND INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON SATURDAY. LAMP GUIDANCE KEEPS LIGHT
RAIN ON-GOING THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SATURDAY UNTIL AROUND 00Z AT
BNA AND 03Z AT CSV AS COLD FRONT SWEEPS EAST. HOWEVER WARM FRONT WILL
BE NORTH OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE BY EARLY AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY AND
MID STATE WILL THEN BE IN WARM SECTOR FOR A PERIOD OF TIME SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. WE COULD SEE A BREAK IN THE RAIN AND A LIFTING IN THE
CEILING AT SOME POINT SATURDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE COLD FRONT ARRIVES
FROM THE WEST.

BOYD
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 903 PM CST FRI FEB 3 2012/

UPDATE...

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 PM CST FRI FEB 3 2012/

UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION FORECAST

BOYD

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM CST FRI FEB 3 2012/

ASSOCIATED FROPA TO OCCUR SAT NT WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
CONTINUING BEHIND IT AS WEAK PVA REMAINS IN PLACE....SLIGHTLY COOLER
BEHIND THE FRONT.

FOR THE NEAR TERM TEMPS. ABOVE NORMAL VALUES TO CONTINUE. WILL
UNDERCUT BY A FEW DEGREES FOR PDS 4 AND 5.

FOR THE LONG TERM TEMPS...WILL GENERALLY UNDERCUT THE MEX NUMBERS BY
A DEGREE OR TWO THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPS TO REMAIN ABOUT 3-7
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

248 AM CST SAT FEB 4 2012

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY
248 AM CST SAT FEB 4 2012

THE MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS WITH CLOUD TRENDS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY A WARM UP ON MONDAY AND A COLD FRONT MONDAY
NIGHT.

CURRENTLY...A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO CHURN EASTWARD
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA/NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS WITH A SURFACE
LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI. THE PRECIPITATION FROM THIS
SYSTEM IS CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF IOWA AND WILL CONTINUE
TO DRIFT SOUTH TODAY AND NOT AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS
MAINLY DUE TO A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT EXTENDS FROM NORTH
DAKOTA EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. LOW LEVEL STRATUS AND FOG
REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO MUCH OF MINNESOTA DUE TO
MOISTURE STUCK UNDER 950MB INVERSION. OTHERWISE SKIES HAVE MAINLY
BEEN CLEAR ACROSS WISCONSIN WITH SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS COMING IN
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE STATE.

WHAT HAPPENS WITH THE CLOUDS TODAY IS THE MAIN QUESTION AS MUCH OF
THE 04.00Z GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING A GRADUAL CLEARING FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH. AS THE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH STARTS TO DIVE SOUTH TODAY...THE
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL DROP SOUTH AS WELL AND SHOULD BRING DRIER
AIR DOWN WITH IT. THE PROBLEM IS THAT THE 950-900MB INVERSION IS
FORECAST TO HANG ON INTO THE AFTERNOON. ALSO...THE CURRENT
STRATUS EXTENDS UP INTO THE CORE OF THE RIDGE WITH THE EASTERN
EDGE CURRENTLY PUSHING EAST TOWARD THE TWIN CITIES AND SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA. THE 04.07Z RUC 950MB RH FIELD SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD
GRASP ON THE CURRENT STRATUS AND MAKES A PUSH TO THE EAST THROUGH
16Z THIS MORNING WITH THE 90-100 PERCENT CONTOURS. THUS...HAVE
KEPT SKIES MAINLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE MORNING ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA AND FAR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. THIS WILL
HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES WITH MID 30S LIKELY FOR HIGHS
WHERE THE CLOUDS HANG ON AND 40S LIKELY ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN
WHERE IT IS SUNNY TODAY. BY TONIGHT...CLOUDS SHOULD HAVE CLEARED
THE REGION BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH CONSIDERING RECENT
TRENDS.

THE FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO A COLD FRONT THAT WILL DROP THROUGH THE
REGION ON MONDAY NIGHT. WITH DECENT LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AHEAD
OF THIS FRONT ON MONDAY...SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM NICELY
INTO THE MID 40S THROUGH MUCH OF THE REGION. CLOUD COVER WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT DEEP MOISTURE AND FORCING IS LACKING WITH THIS FEATURE
AND THUS SHOULD NOT PRODUCE ANY PRECIPITATION.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
248 AM CST SAT FEB 4 2012

THE QUIET WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK
WITH THE MAIN STORY BEING WITH A BRIEF COLD SURGE TOWARD THE LATER
PART OF THE WEEK.

AFTER THE COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH ON MONDAY NIGHT A BROAD RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. BEYOND THIS...THERE
ARE SOME DIFFERENCES THAT POP UP BETWEEN THE 04.00Z GFS...GEM AND
ECMWF IN REGARDS TO THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONT COMING THROUGH
LATER IN THE WEEK. THE GFS AND GEM ARE MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE AND HAS
IT THROUGH THE REGION BY THURSDAY MORNING WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS
IT THROUGH ON FRIDAY MORNING. THE GFS AND GEM SOLUTIONS WOULD
BRING THE COLD SURGE OF -15C TO -20C 850MB TEMPERATURES DOWN IN
THE REGION FASTER THAN WHAT THE ECMWF SUGGESTS AS THE POLAR
VORTEX DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS CANADA. FOR NOW...HAVE DONE A BLEND
WITH THE TIMING BETWEEN THE 04.00Z GFS/ECMWF AND WENT WITH THE
COLDER TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WHEN THE COLD POOL WILL MORE LIKELY
BE IN PLACE. ITS PLAUSIBLE AT THIS POINT THAT THE TEMPERATURES ARE
TOO WARM FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH AT THIS POINT WITH THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR EXPECTED TO BE
OFF TO THE EAST TOWARD THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.

.AVIATION...THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY
1135 PM CST FRI FEB 3 2012

STRATUS HAS SCATTERED OUT OF BOTH TAF SITES AND AT 05Z THE BACK
EDGE IS JUST SOUTH OF BOTH KLSE AND KRST AND HAS SLOWED ITS
SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION. ANOTHER BATCH OF LOW STRATUS AND LOW
VISIBILITIES WAS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL MINNESOTA. THIS CENTRAL
MINNESOTA AREA IS SHOWING SOME SOUTHEASTWARD PROGRESSION. MAIN
CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE ON THESE CLOUDS THROUGH THE NEXT 6 TO 10
HOURS OR SO. 04.04Z RUC 975MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY PROG INDICATES
THESE CLOUDS MAY BUILD BACK INTO BOTH TAF SITES BETWEEN 12Z-
15Z...WITH A STRONGER SIGNAL OVER SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA. THUS DID
BRING SOME LOWER VISIBILITIES INTO KRST WITH SCATTERED STRATUS AT
200 FEET. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY OVERNIGHT AS
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH. ANY STRATUS THAT DOES WORK ITS WAY BACK IN
SHOULD LIFT LATER SATURDAY AS FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHERLY AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA.

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
248 AM CST SAT FEB 4 2012

WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.

SHORT TERM...HALBACH
LONG TERM...HALBACH
AVIATION...RABERDING

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

1135 PM CST FRI FEB 3 2012

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
336 PM CST FRI FEB 3 2012

ON SATURDAY NIGHT...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SHEAR APART TO
OUR SOUTHWEST. AS THIS OCCURS...SKIES WILL CLEAR ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
336 PM CST FRI FEB 3 2012

.AVIATION...THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY
1135 PM CST FRI FEB 3 2012

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
242 PM CST FRI FEB 3 2012

WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...RABERDING

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

958 AM CST SAT FEB 4 2012

.DISCUSSION...
953 AM CST

SENT SOME TWEAKED GRIDS TO UPDATE SHORT TERM TRENDS FOR TODAY.
APPEARS AS THOUGH DEFORMATION BAND WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER ABOUT
THE SOUTHERN 1/3RD OF OUR CWA THROUGH THE DAY. ACARS SOUNDINGS AS
WELL AS 12Z RAOBS FROM ILX AND DVN WOULD SUGGEST THAT THERMALLY WE
ARE HUGGING THE RAIN/WET SNOW LINE WHERE PRECIP IS FALLING.
SUSPECT WE WILL STAY MOSTLY RAIN...THOUGH THE HEAVIER BURSTS OF
PRECIP COULD ALLOW FOR RAIN TO MIX WITH OR EVEN BRIEFLY CHANGE TO
WET SNOW AT TIMES TODAY. HAVE SHARPENED THE POP GRADIENT ACROSS
THE CWA AND MAINTAINED CATEGORICAL POPS INTO THE AFTERNOON OVER
FAR SOUTH. ALSO...PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP TEMPS FROM
GOING MUCH OF ANYWHERE SOUTH AND HAVE LOWERED HIGH TEMPS THERE A
FEW DEGREES...WHILE SOME CLEARING FAR NORTH COULD ALLOW TEMPS TO
REBOUND TO AROUND 40.

UPDATED GRIDS ARE OUT AND ZFP WILL BE FOLLOWING MOMENTARILY.

IZZI

.PREV DISCUSSION...
245 AM CST

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THIS MORNING WILL BE DEALING WITH PRECIP
TYPE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI WILL CONTINUE TO TREK ENE
TOWARDS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TODAY WITH WARM ADVECTION
PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADING AREAS AHEAD OF THE LOW INTO THE
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA. STRONG MID
LEVEL FGEN BAND HAS SET UP THIS MORNING WITH STEADY RAIN
OCCASIONALLY MIXING WITH SNOW FALLING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-88
AND I-80 CORRIDORS. THIS FGEN BAND IS PROGGED TO TRANSLATE EAST
ACROSS NORTHWEST INDIANA TODAY WITH PRECIP GRADUALLY TAPERING FROM
THE NORTH THROUGH THE PERIOD. WHILE MAINLY RAIN HAS FALLEN SO
FAR...HAVE SEEN BRIEF BURSTS OF SNOWFALL REACHING THE SURFACE AND
DUAL-POL IMAGERY DOES INDICATE LOWERING MELTING LEVELS THIS
MORNING...PARTICULARLY ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE PRECIP
SHIELD. THIS SUPPORTS MODEL SOUNDINGS WHICH DO SHOW THE COLUMN
COOLING SLIGHTLY WITH SOME AREAS COOLING ENOUGH FOR A CHANGE OVER
TO SNOW...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHWESTERN INDIANA AND AREAS NORTH OF
THE I-80 CORRIDOR. AM CONCERNED THAT PORTIONS OF PORTER/LAKE/JASPER
COUNTIES IN INDIANA MAY SEE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS...AND LATEST OB
FROM VPZ ASOS JUST REPORTING CHANGE OVER TO SNOW. GIVEN A FAIRLY
MODEST SLR OF 8-10:1 THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FORCING STILL FOR
PERHAPS AND INCH OR SO ACCUMULATION ACROSS THESE AREAS BEFORE
PRECIP ENDS OR THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS. FOR THE REST OF THE
CWA...EXPECT THE COLUMN TO REMAIN WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS.

NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PHASE WITH UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE ASSOCIATED WITH OUR LOW TO THE SOUTH LATER THIS EVENING
WITH STRONG HEIGHT RISES BUILDING IN BEHIND THE MERGING SYSTEMS.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE AREA AND SHOULD PROVIDE
A FEW DAYS OF DRY WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING.
MONDAY LOOKS TO BE OUR WARMEST DAY AS MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
MOVES OVERHEAD...WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S
EXPECTED. MODELS HAVE DIFFICULT TIME HANDLING REX BLOCK OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS...BUT STILL SHOW SOME HINT THAT MAY SEE TRANSIENT
SHORTWAVES IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW BRINGING CHANCES OF PRECIP TO THE
AREA MIDWEEK OR SO...BUT CONFIDENCE VERY LOW FOR ANY GIVEN TIMING
AT THIS POINT. GEFS ENSEMBLE DOES INDICATE THAT THE WEST COAST
RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY MIDWEEK WITH STRONG TROUGHING DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. SHOULD THIS PAN OUT...COULD
BE LOOKING AT MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES...POSSIBLY STICKING FOR
A WHILE IF THE PATTERN TAKES TIME TO BREAK DOWN...AND A DEPARTURE
FROM THE GOING WARMTH WE HAVE HAD THUS FAR THIS WINTER.

BMD

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 15Z...

* GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO CIGS. EXPECT BY 18Z CIGS SHUD BE HOVERING
ARND 2KFT AGL...THEN STEADILY LIFT THRU THE AFTN/EVE.
* PSBL LGT PRECIP SOUTH OF ORD/MDW THIS AFTN.
* E-NE WINDS ARND 10KT OCCASIONAL GUST TO 16KT THIS AFTN. THEN LGT
N WINDS OVERNIGHT.

BEACHLER

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...

LOW PRESSURE WAS MOVING FROM SOUTHERN MISSOURI TOWARD THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING...WITH FAIRLY EXTENSIVE AREA OF MVFR
CEILINGS ACROSS IL/FAR SOUTHERN WI/INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST MI. BAND
OF RAIN/SNOW WHICH HAD DEVELOPED LAST EVENING FROM ROUGHLY KMLI TO
KVYS AND KVPZ HAS WEAKENED AND SHIFTED SOUTH...BUT HAS LEFT IFR
VIS/CIGS IN ITS WAKE AT KMDW AND KGYY. WHILE SOME IMPROVEMENT IS
EXPECTED THIS MORNING WITH LOSS OF PRECIP...FAIRLY STRONG
MID/UPPER LEVEL ASCENT WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS UPPER
LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST. LOW
LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN LINGERING FOCUS FOR
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION MAINLY SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS AS
GRADUALLY WEAKENING UPPER CIRCULATION CONTINUES TO PRODUCE LIFT.
RECENT HIGH RES MODEL RUNS SUCH AS HRRR SUGGEST RAIN MAY REDEVELOP
AS FAR NORTH AS THE I-80 CORRIDOR AND MAY AFFECT KGYY FOR A TIME
AND PERHAPS EVEN COME CLOSE TO KMDW EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
WOULD LIKELY TEND TO KEEP CEILING IMPROVEMENT SLOWER ACROSS THE
SOUTH METRO TERMINALS...WITH BETTER DRY LOW LEVEL ADVECTION NOT
REALLY DEVELOPING UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
CENTER SCOOTS BY TO THE SOUTH AND ALLOWS EASTERLY WINDS TO BECOME
MORE NORTHERLY. FARTHER NORTH AT KORD/KDPA/KRFD...WILL LIKELY SEE
AN EARLIER BUT STILL GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO CIGS THROUGH MVFR
RANGE. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD EVENTUALLY SCATTER FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST LATE TODAY...WITH SKIES CLEARING THIS EVENING.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY RANGE IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE THROUGH THE DAY
WITH A MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...SAY
080-060 DEGREES. WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY BACK MORE NORTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THEN NORTH WITH SPEEDS FALLING BELOW 10 KTS THIS
EVENING.

RATZER

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 15Z...

* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS IMPROVING BY THIS AFTN.
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN PSBL FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.

BEACHLER

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR.

MONDAY...VFR.

TUESDAY...VFR.

WEDNESDAY...VFR.

THURSDAY...VFR.

FRIDAY...VFR.

RATZER

.MARINE...
256 AM CST

A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN THIS MORNING...WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER
SOUTHERN MISSOURI. WINDS WERE GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN NEAR THE RIDGE AXIS...WHILE THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE LAKE SEES EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 15
KTS WHERE THE GRADIENT WILL BE A LITTLE STRONGER CLOSER TO THE
MISSOURI/LOWER OHIO VALLEY LOW. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THROUGH THIS
EVENING BEFORE MOVING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION EARLY SUNDAY.
MEANWHILE THE RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES WILL WEAKEN
TODAY...WHILE A WEAKER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST OF THE
LAKES ACROSS EASTERN ONTARIO. DEEPER LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP NORTH
OF THE LAKES ACROSS HUDSON BAY ON SUNDAY...AND WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
INTO CENTRAL QUEBEC ON MONDAY WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING ACROSS THE
WESTERN LAKES. WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 15-25 KT RANGE
AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS LOW AND
APPROACHING FRONTAL TROUGH...WITH PERHAPS THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE
20-25 KT RANGE ON THE NORTHERN END OF THE LAKE MONDAY MORNING.
COLDER AIR WILL SPREAD IN BEHIND THE FRONT AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS SOUTHEAST OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...BUT THE HIGH WILL WEAKEN AS IT REACHES THE UPPER MIDWEST
AND GREAT LAKES REGION BY MID-WEEK.

RATZER

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

919 AM CST SAT FEB 4 2012

.DISCUSSION...
245 AM CST

BMD

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 15Z...

BEACHLER

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...

RATZER

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 15Z...

* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS IMPROVING BY THIS AFTN.
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN PSBL FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.

BEACHLER

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR.

MONDAY...VFR.

TUESDAY...VFR.

WEDNESDAY...VFR.

THURSDAY...VFR.

FRIDAY...VFR.

RATZER

.MARINE...
256 AM CST

RATZER

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

610 AM CST SAT FEB 4 2012

.DISCUSSION...
245 AM CST

BMD

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 12Z...

* MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VIS WITH LOWER CONDITIONS AT KMDW THIS MORNING.

* SLOW IMPROVING TREND EXPECTED IN CEILING HEIGHTS.

* POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIP SOUTH OF KORD/KMDW THROUGH
MID-AFTERNOON.

* EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS 10-15 KTS BECOMING NORTH-NORTHEAST LATER
THIS AFTERNOON...THEN LIGHT NORTH TONIGHT.

RATZER

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...

RATZER

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 12Z...

* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TREND OF IMPROVING CIG/VIS
CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING...THOUGH LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
DETAILED TIMING.

* MEDIUM-LOW CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION TIMING/LOCATION WITH
RESPECT TO KMDW THIS AFTERNOON.

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND TRENDS.

RATZER

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR.

MONDAY...VFR.

TUESDAY...VFR.

WEDNESDAY...VFR.

THURSDAY...VFR.

FRIDAY...VFR.

RATZER

.MARINE...
256 AM CST

RATZER

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LINCOLN IL

528 AM CST SAT FEB 4 2012

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 200 AM CST SAT FEB 4 2012

INITIAL FORECAST CONCERN REVOLVES AROUND THE EXTENT OF RAINFALL
TODAY AND THIS EVENING. LATER ON...POTENTIAL COOL SNAP LATE IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD IS THE FOCUS.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

GEELHART

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 515 AM CST SAT FEB 4 2012

IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY TONIGHT AS A STORM
SYSTEM SLOWLY PASSES TO OUR SOUTH TODAY. RAIN/DRIZZLE ALONG WITH
THE LOW CIGS WILL BE THE STORY ACRS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY INTO
EARLY TONIGHT...BEFORE DRIER AIR FILTERS SOUTH INTO CENTRAL IL
BRINGING VFR CONDITIONS TO THE AREA AFTR 06Z. CIGS WILL RANGE
FROM AS LOW AS AROUND 300 FEET...ESPECIALLY AT KBMI...TO 700 FEET
AT MOST OF THE OTHER TAF LOCATIONS. OCCASIONALLY WE MAY SEE THE
CIGS GO ABOVE 1000 FEET FOR A BRIEF TIME BUT FOR THE MOST PART...
WHAT WE ARE SEEING ON SATELLITE AND WITH SFC OBS TO OUR WEST AND
SOUTHWEST DOESN`T LEND MUCH HOPE FOR ANYTHING PROLONGED ABOVE
1000 FEET TODAY.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE EAST TO NORTHEAST TODAY AT 12 TO
17 KNOTS...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS THIS MORNING...WITH
WINDS GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE NORTHEAST LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT AT
AROUND 10 KTS.

SMITH
&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN

934 AM EST SAT FEB 4 2012

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

.SYNOPSIS...

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

SEEING SOME HIGHER RETURNS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA
COINCIDING WITH MIXED PRECIP IN THE OBS AT KMIE AND LIGHT SNOW
BEING REPORTED AT MARION AND LOGANSPORT JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WENT AHEAD AND ADDED CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW MIXING IN WITH
THE RAIN THROUGH 15Z FROM KOKOMO SOUTHEAST THROUGH MUNCIE AND
WINCHESTER. ALSO ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS THROUGH THE DAY BASED ON
CURRENT OBS. TEMPS HAVE COOLED A BIT MORE THAN ORIGINALLY THOUGHT.

REST UNCHANGED...EARLY MORNING DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

LIGHT RAIN SLOWLY EXPANDING AND OVERSPREADING THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING. TEMPS RANGED FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S AS OF
08Z.

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

FORECAST CHALLENGES IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON ENDING OF THE PRECIP
THIS EVENING AND TEMPS THEREAFTER AS HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS INTO THE
REGION.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THE PERIOD IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ASSOCIATED WITH SEVERAL UPPER WAVES PASSING THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA.

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 041500Z TAF UPDATE/...

HEAVIER RAIN HAS MOVED EAST OF ALL SITES BUT KBMG AT THIS POINT. IN
THE WAKE OF THE STRONGER AREA OF LIFT THAT HAS MOVED OFF TO THE
EAST...IFR CEILINGS 006-008 AGL ARE DEVELOPING/ADVECTING IN TO THE
SITES. BASED ON UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS AND MODEL SOUNDINGS EXPECT
THESE TO LINGER FOR THE REST OF DAY AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A
BIT OF MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON WHEN CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE...WITH THE
MOST OPTIMISTIC BEING AROUND 6Z AND THE MOST PESSIMISTIC NOT TIL
AFTER 15Z. A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD SOLUTION IS AROUND 10Z AND WILL GO
WITH THAT AT THIS TIME. AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE EXPECTED AS WELL
TODAY...BUT THINK PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH IN A FEW HOURS
TO KEEP VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ABOVE IFR FOR THE MOST PART.

MODEL DATA SUGGEST SURFACE WIND GUSTS UP TO 20-22KTS FROM 060-090
HEADINGS PROBABLE FROM THE MID MORNING HOURS INTO THE AFTERNOON.
ALREADY SEEING THESE GUSTS ACROSS ILLINOIS.

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....HOMANN/RYAN
AVIATION...JAS/CP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN

656 AM EST SAT FEB 4 2012

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

.SYNOPSIS...

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

REST UNCHANGED...EARLY MORNING DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

LIGHT RAIN SLOWLY EXPANDING AND OVERSPREADING THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING. TEMPS RANGED FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S AS OF
08Z.

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

FORECAST CHALLENGES IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON ENDING OF THE PRECIP
THIS EVENING AND TEMPS THEREAFTER AS HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS INTO THE
REGION.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THE PERIOD IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ASSOCIATED WITH SEVERAL UPPER WAVES PASSING THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA.

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 041200Z TAFS/...

RADAR TRENDS AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA SUGGEST THE BEST
LIFT/HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL PASS OVER THE TAF SITES THROUGH
ABOUT 041600Z. EXPECTING CEILINGS TO FALL INTO THE 015-025 RANGE
DURING THE COURSE OF THE MORNING WITH IFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
IN THE HEAVIER RAINFALL AREAS. ONCE STRONGER AREA OF LIFT TAILS
OFF...EXPECTING IFR CEILINGS 006-008 AGL TO DEVELOP BY THE MID TO
LATE MORNING HOURS AND LINGER FOR THE REST OF DAY. AREAS OF LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE EXPECTED AS WELL...BUT THINK PRECIPITATION WILL BE
LIGHT ENOUGH LATER TODAY TO KEEP VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ABOVE IFR
FOR THE MOST PART.

MODEL DATA SUGGEST SURFACE WIND GUSTS UP TO 20-22KTS FROM 060-090
HEADINGS PROBABLE FROM THE MID MORNING HOURS INTO THE AFTERNOON.
ALREADY SEEING THESE GUSTS ACROSS ILLINOIS.

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....HOMANN/RYAN
AVIATION...JAS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN

530 AM EST SAT FEB 4 2012

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

.SYNOPSIS...

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

LIGHT RAIN SLOWLY EXPANDING AND OVERSPREADING THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING. TEMPS RANGED FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S AS OF
08Z.

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

FORECAST CHALLENGES IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON ENDING OF THE PRECIP
THIS EVENING AND TEMPS THEREAFTER AS HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS INTO THE
REGION.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THE PERIOD IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ASSOCIATED WITH SEVERAL UPPER WAVES PASSING THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA.

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 041200Z TAFS/...

MODEL DATA SUGGEST SURFACE WIND GUSTS UP TO 20-22KTS FROM 060-090
HEADINGS PROBABLE FROM THE MID MORNING HOURS INTO THE AFTERNOON.
ALREADY SEEING THESE GUSTS ACROSS ILLINOIS.

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....HOMANN/RYAN
AVIATION...JAS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LOUISVILLE KY

636 AM EST SAT FEB 04 2012

...Forecast and Aviation Update...

A line of showers and embedded storms is racing out ahead of the
surface low and it`s associated cold front. Upstream 88D`s
indicating a clear back edge to this precip, so have changed the
forecast around to go for scattered showers/chance rain by around
Noon. With the upper low still well west of the region and that low
closing in, would not be surprised to see another round/line of
showers and storms developing later this afternoon and continuing
into the evening hours. So new PoP forecast goes for 100 percent
chance this morning then trends down to high-end chance, though that
may be generous given latest HRRR forecasts, in the early afternoon
then back again to the likely range over the west by late afternoon.

Did not change winds or temps/dewpoints other than to blend with
current obs. Updated products already out.

.Short Term (Today and Tonight)...

1013 mb low over SW MO will shift east today along a stalled frontal
boundary that is draped over the area this morning. By this time
Sunday, the low should be along the SE KY/NE TN border. The upper
level feature, now over western KS, that was driving this low is not
moving much, according to the latest Water Vapor imagery. Models
have this feature drifting east, only reaching central MO by
daybreak Sunday. Have a nice line of thunderstorms in the warm
sector ahead of the surface low. This line looks to move along the
border with TN this morning. Have the area of thunderstorm chances
extended farther north, in case the warm sector invades farther
north through the day today and allows some of that thunder to the
southern half of the region. Still not expecting severe weather with
this line, but wind fields are a little stronger aloft than what we
had in the last set of models. Some of the storms across south
central KY could see gusty winds to 30-40 mph today. The GFS looks
to have a little better handle on some warm air over south KY in its
soundings, and even they keep LI`s positive over our area with no
surface-based CAPE. The lowest LI`s come in this evening as the low
crosses the area, so will keep in storm chances to 06Z.

Rainfall totals still do not look to be much of an issue. With
updated forecasts have average totals at less than an inch now.
These values are in line with SREF plumes for rainfall, as well as
HPC forecast through 12z Monday.

The temperature forecast today depends on how far the boundary
shifts north or south. For highs, have gone with a range from the
low 40s over the north to around 60 across the south. Similarly for
lows tonight, the southeast should stay warmest the longest, as the
low will just clear the area between midnight and daybreak. Thus
have a range from the mid 30s over the north to the mid/upper 40s
down south.

.Long Term (Sunday - Friday)...

Sunday - Sunday Night...

Surface low will move southeast to the Carolinas through Sunday with
a closed upper low hanging over the Ohio/Mississippi river
confluence. Expect a few isolated rain showers to linger behind
frontal boundary through Sunday, mainly south of the Ohio River.
Skies should begin to clear from north to south through the day with
highs ranging from the upper 40s to mid 50s across the south. By
Sunday evening, the closed upper low will work its way across the
area with limited moisture to work with. Therefore will continue to
keep Sunday night forecast dry with only a noted increase in low to
mid level clouds. Expect lows to drop right around the freezing mark
by dawn on Monday morning.

Monday - Tuesday...

A dry period of weather will continue into Monday and Tuesday as
surface high pressure and weak ridging aloft are in control. Look
for highs right around 50 under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies.
Lows on Monday night should drop right around the 30 degree mark
with the coolest spots into the upper 20s.

Tuesday Night - Wednesday...

Focus will shift to a shortwave moving from the southern plains to
the Tennessee Valley after midnight late Tuesday night/early
Wednesday. Models have come into better agreement with timing and
strength of this system with ECMWF recently trending toward the more
progressive and overall weaker solution suggested by GFS/GEM. Best
chances for precipitation will be from after midnight early
Wednesday through midday. Precipitation type may come into question
with the possibility of rain or snow, depending on exact timing of
system. Overall, QPF should range around a tenth of an inch or less
with progressive system and doubt that if any snow falls, ground
temps would be cool enough to support accumulation. Will continue to
monitor.

Wednesday Night - Friday...

Confidence is low beyond Wednesday as there is quite a bit of
uncertainty with regard to timing of shortwaves embedded in the
upper flow pattern, as well as the evolution of some degree of
troughing over the eastern CONUS. Will keep the forecast mainly dry
with only small chances for a rain shower across the southern CWA on
Friday if more amplified solution does not work out and southern
stream moisture is able to make it north. Otherwise, may have to
watch for potential for a significant cool down by the end of the
week into next weekend.

.Aviation (12Z TAF Issuance)...

Line of rain heading towards the TAF sites this morning. KBWG may
see a strike of lightning, so have a CB group in for the morning.
Upstream radar indicates there should be a break in the line behind
the main rain. However, low cigs remain behind the line, so expect
IFR conditions for most of the period, after starting out MVFR early
this morning. Another round of showers/rains is forecast later this
afternoon and evening as low pressure tracks across the region.
Again may see a little thunder near KBWG so have a CB group there
late this aftn and into the evening. Will see winds switch around to
northwesterly behind the low, but low cigs should remain to the end
of the period.

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
$$

Update...........RJS
Short Term.......RJS
Long Term........BJS
Aviation.........RJS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS NEW ORLEANS LA

947 AM CST SAT FEB 4 2012

.UPDATE...
WATCHING THE QLCS MOVING EAST 22 KT ACROSS SW LOUISIANA. THIS LINE
WAS SHOWING SIGNS OF WEAKENING IS IT MOVES INTO A MOISTURE RICH
BUT LESS UNSTABLE AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM. THE WRF AND RUC MODELS
INDICATED THIS TREND AND IT APPEARS TO BE OCCURRING. WAS
CONSIDERING UPDATING POPS BUT WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH TRENDS
THROUGH NOON BEFORE ADJUSTING. TIMING STILL APPEARS TO BRING
SYSTEM TO KBTR AROUND 19Z.

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
SOUNDING WENT OFF FINE AFTER OVERCOMING SOME GROUND EQUIPMENT
FREQUENCY ISSUES. PRECIPITABLE WATER 1.18 INCHES WHICH IS
CONSIDERABLY LOWER THAN PAST COUPLE OF RUNS. MINOR CAPPING IN THE
MID LEVELS ABLE TO BE OVERCOME WITH A 330K LIFT FROM SURFACE. CHAP
OUTPUT ON SOUNDING SHOWS A RICKS INDEX OF 71 WHICH IS NOT SEVERE
AND WIND GUST POTENTIAL OF ONLY 19KT. SOUNDING VIL OF 79 YIELDS
LIQUID WHILE A 87 VIL PRODUCES PEA SIZED HAIL...NOT A LIKELY
OUTCOME TODAY. WINDS SHOW SOME SHALLOW VEERING THORUGH ABOUT 1KFT
BEFORE BECOMING UNIDIRECTIONALLY SOUTH TO 4KFT...SW 20KT THROUGH
18KFT. PEAK WINDS 71KT AT 46KFT...WELL ABOVE TROP LEVEL AROUND
41KFT.

.DECISION SUPPORT... /EXPERIMENTAL/
DSS CODE...YELLOW.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION..NONE.
ACTIVITIES...STORM SURVEILLANCE FOR SQUALL LINE APPROACHING FROM
WEST.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR AND/OR
DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 75 52 62 40 / 60 70 20 20
BTR 78 53 65 45 / 60 60 20 20
ASD 74 58 68 46 / 40 60 30 20
MSY 75 58 68 48 / 40 60 30 20
GPT 72 56 68 49 / 40 60 30 20
PQL 73 57 68 47 / 40 60 30 20

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

24/RR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAY ME

911 AM EST SAT FEB 4 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY AND WILL HOLD
OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON MONDAY AND WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...MOVING OFFSHORE BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. LOW PRESSURE
CROSSING SOUTHERN CANADA WILL SWING A TRAILING COLD FRONT TOWARD
THE AREA ON THURSDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY PUSH INTO NEW
ENGLAND BY FRIDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE IN THE
AFTERNOON.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED TO INCLUDE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MORNING PTN OF THE
FORECAST. EVEN A FEW BRIEF SQUALLS CAN BE EXPECTED TO CROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS PER LATEST RADAR TRENDS
AND LOCAL OBSERVATIONS. UPPED POPS AND CLOUD FCST TO INTO THE
LIKELY AND CATEGORICAL RANGE ACROSS PTNS OF SW MAINE. RAN THE SNOW
TOTAL TOOL TO SHOW ABOUT 1" OR SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS PTNS OF
SOUTHERN MAINE. THIS IS IN LINE WITH THE LATEST HRRR MODEL RUN.

REST OF THE FCST WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISC... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY
BRINGING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. FAIR
AMOUNT OF CLOUDS CURRENTLY OVER MUCH OF NEW HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN
MAINE AS A WEAK COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION. ALSO A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS SHOWING UP IN THE MOUNTAINS. EXPECT CLOUD COVER
TO QUICKLY DIMINISH DOWNWIND OF THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. FARTHER NORTH CLOUDS WILL HANG TOUGH IN THE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE MORNING BUT SKIES SHOULD BECOME AT LEAST
PARTLY SUNNY BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE
THROUGH THE 20S IN THE NORTH AND IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S IN THE
SOUTH.

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT RESULTING IN MOSTLY
CLEAR AND COLD CONDITIONS. EXPECT LOWS NEAR ZERO IN THE NORTH AND
IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS AND LOWER TEENS IN THE SOUTH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY BUT PASSING UPPER
TROUGH WILL BRING MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDINESS TO THE REGION.
WILL SEE MORNING SUN GIVING WAY TO VARIABLE CLOUDS DURING THE DAY
WITH THE MAJORITY OF MOISTURE IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE THERE COULD
BE A LATE DAY FLURRY. WILL SEE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS WITH LOWER TO
MID 20S IN THE NORTH AND UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S IN THE SOUTH.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A PERIOD OF MOSTLY QUIET WX THRU THE LONG TERM. A WEAK UPR LVL TROF
SLIDES THRU ON NW FLOW SUNDAY NGT WITH WARMING FLOW AT SFC AND H8
FROM W SW ALONG WITH SOME INCREASING RH. THIS WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS
BUT NO MORE THAN SLGT CHC -SHSN TO THE N/MT ZONES. THE UPR LVL TROF
MOVES THRU FOR MONDAY AS THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES. THIS SHOULD
GIVE US THE NICEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS. HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

A CD FNT MOVES THRU MONDAY NGT BEGINNING TO BRING IN COLDER CANADIAN
AIR. A SECOND CD FNT MOVES THRU TUESDAY WITH MUCH COLDER AIR MOVING
IN ON N NW WINDS. MODELS SHOW A GOOD SHOT OF COLD AIR WITH H8 TEMPS
OF MINUS 15C OR COLDER MOVING IN LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NGT WITH
SFC HIGH PRES MOVING IN TO DROP OFF WINDS, CLR SKIES AND ALLOW FOR
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. COLDEST MIN TEMPS LIKELY TO BE TUESDAY NGT
WITH LOWS BELOW ZERO N AND IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS TO AROUND 10 ABOVE
S.

THE HIGH QUICKLY MOVES OFF TO THE E WEDNESDAY AS AN UPR LVL TROF
LIFTS NE INTO THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM MOVES THRU WEDNESDAY NGT BUT
HAS A WEAK SFC SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH IT WITH LIMITED WRM AIR
ADVECTION DESPITE QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE MOVING IN. THIS WILL BRING
A CHC OF SHSN TO THE REGION BUT NOT LOOKING LIKE A SIGNIFICANT EVENT
AT THIS TIME...BUT CERTAINLY THE BEST CHC FOR ACCUMULATING SN DURING
THE LONG TERM FCST PERIOD.

THIS SYSTEM MOVES BY FOR THURSDAY BUT A BROAD SW FLOW DEVELOPS ALOFT
BRINGING IN SOME MILDER AIR AHEAD OF A STRONG CD FNT THAT WILL BE
PUSHING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA. THIS CD FNT MOVES THRU THE REGION ON
FRIDAY WITH MUCH COLDER AIR TO FOLLOW. THE FNT MAY KICK OFF A FEW
-SHSN AS WELL.

GENERALLY USED GFS40...HPC QPF AND BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS FOR SUNDAY
NGT AND MONDAY. USED GMOS FOR REST OF THE LONG TERM FCST... EXCEPT
USED A BLEND OF GFS40 AND MEX MOS GUIDANCE FOR MAX AND MIN TEMPS.

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...WEAK SYSTEMS MAY
PRODUCE ISOLD TO SCT -SHSN MAINLY ACROSS THE N/MT AREAS DURING
THIS PERIOD WITH VFR CONDITIONS THE MOST LIKELY WITH MVFR PSBL
WITH ANY -SHSN.

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...EXPECT NORTHWESTERLY GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN UP SOMEWHAT
BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY. WILL LIKELY SEE A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KT IN
FAR EASTERN WATERS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD TODAY BUT NOT PLANNING ON
ANY HEADLINES ATTM.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...INCREASING SW FLOW
LIKELY TO CREATE SCA WINDS AND SEAS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NGT. CD NW
FLOW TUESDAY NGT MAY ALSO RESULT IN SCA WINDS.

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

632 AM EST SAT FEB 4 2012

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 12Z TAFS

.SYNOPSIS...

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THRU SUN NGT/...

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY/...

.AVIATION /FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

THERE MAY BE SOME LO CLDS/IFR CIGS AT CMX EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
UPSLOPE WLY FLOW...BUT VFR CONDITIONS WL DOMINATE AT SAW/IWD THRU
THE DAY. AS THE FLOW VEERS TO THE NNW LATER TODAY INTO THIS EVNG
BEHIND A LO PRES TROF PASSAGE...THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF LO CLDS/
MVFR CIGS AT CMX AND SAW CLOSER TO A DISTURBANCE TRACKING JUST TO
THE E OF UPR MI. HI PRES WL BUILD INTO THE AREA AGAIN LATER TNGT...
CAUSING VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE.
&&

.MARINE /FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST/...

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...KC
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BILLINGS MT

332 AM MST SAT FEB 4 2012

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SUN...

THE 00 UTC GUIDANCE CONTINUES ADVERTISING A REX BLOCK FOR THE NEXT
TWO DAYS AS A MID-LEVEL LOW GETS LEFT BEHIND OVER THE CENTRAL PART
OF THE ROCKIES WHILE A STRONG RIDGE SETTLES IN TO ITS NORTH. THERE
ARE +2 TO +3 STANDARD DEVIATION 700- TO 500-HPA HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE RIDGE THAT WILL INFLUENCE MT. THIS ESSENTIALLY ALLOWS FOR
A WARM PERIOD WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS...BUT THE WEAK FLOW WITH
THIS PATTERN HAS ALSO BEEN ENABLING FOG AND STRATUS ALONG AND EAST
OF A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS FROM EASTERN MT INTO THE DAKOTAS SINCE FRI
MORNING.

THE 00 UTC GLASGOW SOUNDING SUGGESTED THE INVERSION AND ASSOCIATED
SATURATED LAYER RESPONSIBLE FOR THE FOG IS BASED NEAR 900 HPA. THE
SHALLOW NATURE OF THE SATURATED LAYER IS CONFIRMED BY THE RELATIVE
LACK OF FOG AT EKALAKA SINCE LAST EVENING...WHICH IS ABOUT 1000 FT
HIGHER IN ELEVATION THAN MILES CITY AND 500 FT HIGHER THAN BAKER.
THE RUC AND HRRR RUNS FROM TONIGHT ARE THE ONLY MODELS THAT REALLY
CAPTURE THE CURRENT FOG SITUATION...AND BOTH SUGGEST THAT IT COULD
LINGER UNTIL AT LEAST 15 UTC. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE RUC PICK
UP ON THE SATURATED SURFACE TO 900-HPA LAYER IN THE MILES CITY AND
BAKER AREAS...AND DO NOT SHOW ENOUGH TURBULENT LOW-LEVEL MIXING TO
ERODE THE MOIST LAYER UNTIL BETWEEN 15 AND 20 UTC. WE WILL REQUIRE
THE 10-15 F DEWPOINT AIR FROM SHERIDAN TO GILLETTE TO ADVECT RIGHT
INTO THE MILES CITY AND BAKER AREAS TO HELP THIS ALONG. THAT COULD
GET A BIT OF A START BEFORE 15 UTC IF THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SLIPS
EAST AND LIGHT RETURN FLOW GETS GOING...BUT IN GENERAL PERSISTENCE
IS USUALLY A GOOD FORECAST WITH FOG AND STRATUS...SO WE WILL CARRY
THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH 18 UTC FOR NOW...EVEN THOUGH WE MAY
HAVE SOME FLUCTUATION IN VISIBILITY THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE FOG IS
STILL NOT AFFECTING ENOUGH OF CARTER COUNTY TO INCLUDE THEM IN THE
ADVISORY...SO WE WILL HOLD OFF ON ADDING THAT AREA AT THIS POINT.

TEMPERATURE-WISE...850-HPA TEMPERATURES WILL RISE SOME INTO THE +1
TO +3 C RANGE TODAY. WE USED THE HIGHS ON FRI AS A STARTING POINT
FOR TODAY/S FORECAST...AND THEN ADDED 5-8 F IN MOST AREAS BASED ON
THE WARMING ALOFT. OUTSIDE OF THE STRATUS-PLAGUED AREAS...THIS WAS
DONE IN ORDER TO CAPTURE THE FACT THAT BARE GROUND AND SUBSTANTIAL
INSOLATION DID GIVE AN EXTRA BOOST TO TEMPERATURES ABOVE WHAT PURE
MIXING WOULD HAVE IMPLIED ON FRI. FORECAST SOUNDINGS MIX CLOSE TO
850 HPA AGAIN TODAY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MT AND UP TO 900 HPA ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN MT...AND MANUAL MIX-DOWN FROM THOSE LEVELS DOES YIELD
HIGHS JUST SHORT OF WHAT WE ARE FORECASTING IN MOST CASES. PERHAPS
THE GREATEST UNCERTAINTY IN TODAY/S TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS ACROSS
THE BAKER AREA...AS HIGHS WOULD LIKELY BE HELD AT 32 F OR POSSIBLY
EVEN A BIT BELOW THAT IF STRATUS PREVAILS ALL DAY. WE BELIEVE THAT
THE STRATUS WILL DISSIPATE DURING THE AFTERNOON LIKE BOTH THE HRRR
AND RUC SHOW...AND AS SUCH ARE CALLING FOR HIGHS AROUND 35 F TO GO
WITH THE ASSUMPTION THAT LATE-DAY HEATING WILL OCCUR. OF COURSE...
WE HAVE ONLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THIS OUTCOME.

ON SUN...THE MODELS AGREE THAT 850-HPA TEMPERATURES RISE TO THE +4
TO +6 RANGE...SO MANY AREAS WILL LIKELY MEET OR EXCEED 50 F. WHILE
WE DID INCREASE FORECAST HIGHS A FEW DEGREES F...IT IS POSSIBLE WE
ARE NOT WARM ENOUGH IN SOME AREAS ON SUN. SCHULTZ

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...

SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND A BETTER CHANCE OF SNOW FOR THE EXTENDED
FORECAST. HIGH OVER LOW BLOCKING PATTERN BREAKS DOWN ON MONDAY
WITH UPPER LOW TO THE SOUTH AND APPROACHING LOBE OFF THE HUDSON
BAY LOW TO THE NORTHEAST BEGIN TO INFLUENCE WEATHER OVER THE
REGION. LOW LEVEL COLD AIR WILL DROP INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
MONDAY AS SURFACE PRESSURES LOWER OVER THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS...PUSHING TEMPERATURES JUST BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY. MARGINAL MOISTURE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND THE
FRONT...CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY AS WARM ADVECTION OVER RUNS THE
SHALLOW COLD AIRMASS. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP TO SCOUR OUT
CANADIAN AIR FROM WESTERN AREAS WEDNESDAY...WARMING TEMPERATURES
INTO THE LOWER 40S. DOWNSLOPE SHOULD KEEP ANY SNOW SHOWERS
CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS. AS DISCUSSED YESTERDAY UPPER RIDGE
DEVELOPS OVER THE WEST COAST WITH THE HUDSON BAY LOW SPINNING
CHUNKS OF ARCTIC AIR SOUTHWARD INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY.
LAST FEW MODEL RUNS HAVE TRENDED THIS RIDGING WESTWARD OPENING THE
DOOR AT LEAST A LITTLE BIT FOR COLDER ARCTIC AIR TO BUILD IN FROM
THE NORTHEAST. STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO MAKE ANY BIG CHANGES
TO THE EXTENDED...HOWEVER DID BEGIN TRENDING TEMPERATURES
COOLER...REMOVING THE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THAT WERE IN
THE FORECAST. ALSO ADDED MENTION OF LOW POPS AS ANY COLD FRONT
SHOULD BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW SNOW SHOWERS. OVERALL NOT TOO
CONCERNED ABOUT SNOWFALL AS THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE AREA IS
BASICALLY CUT OFF FROM PACIFIC MOISTURE THROUGH THE EXTENDED. WILL
NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY PERIOD
FOR A MORE PRONOUNCED COLD AIR PLUNGE. CHAMBERS

.AVIATION...

LIFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE EAST OF A MILES CITY TO
ALZADA LINE THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS BELOW AIRPORT
MINIMUMS CAN BE EXPECTED AT KMLS AND KBHK THROUGH AT LEAST 16Z.
EXPECT FOG AND STRATUS TO DISSIPATE MID DAY. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY. CHAMBERS

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

TDY SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 046 025/052 022/032 015/031 019/039 021/040 025/042
0/U 00/U 02/J 32/J 11/B 12/J 11/B
LVM 046 018/051 019/039 020/036 021/044 023/045 025/047
0/U 00/U 01/B 31/B 11/U 22/W 11/B
HDN 047 018/053 021/032 015/033 014/039 016/038 019/040
0/U 00/U 02/J 32/J 11/B 12/J 11/B
MLS 044 022/051 022/032 015/031 015/038 016/034 017/036
0/F 00/U 02/J 31/B 11/B 12/J 11/B
4BQ 044 020/049 022/034 015/031 016/038 017/035 018/037
0/B 00/U 02/J 32/J 11/U 12/J 11/B
BHK 035 022/049 020/033 010/027 010/036 012/033 012/035
0/F 00/U 01/B 21/B 11/U 12/J 11/B
SHR 046 015/048 018/036 016/034 016/041 017/040 021/042
0/U 00/U 02/J 42/J 11/U 12/J 11/B

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR
ZONES 32-33.
WY...NONE.

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BINGHAMTON NY

958 AM EST SAT FEB 4 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE A NORTHWEST FLOW OF SEASONABLY
COOL AIR OVER THE REGION. THIS AIR WILL HAVE SOME MOISTURE WITH
IT...SO CLOUDS AND EVEN A SPRINKLE OR FLURRY IS POSSIBLE FROM TIME
TO TIME.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 AM UPDATE...THOUGH WEATHER PATTERN IN GENERAL IS FAIRLY
BENIGN...THE STRATOCUMULUS DECK CONTINUES TO BE A REAL FORECAST
CHALLENGE THAT THE MODELS SIMPLY ARE NOT CAPTURING. THIS
MORNING...TENUOUS GEORGIAN BAY/LAKE HURON MOISTURE CONNECTION...IS
ALLOWING REGENERATION OF CLOUDS OVER EASTERN HALF OF LAKE ONTARIO.
THIS WILL ALLOW CLOUDS TO PERSIST ESPECIALLY ALONG SYRACUSE-
ONEONTA AXIS. LOW LEVEL VEERING WILL BREAK THE LAKE-TO-LAKE
CONNECTION BY MIDDAY...THOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
POOL/STRATOCUMULUS WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN FINGER LAKES
BEFORE SCATTERING OUT...BEST RESOLVED BY 950-925MB RH FIELD IN THE
LATEST RUC MODEL RUN. SKY GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT
THESE TRENDS...WITH TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURE GRIDS AS WELL.
ALSO...INCLUDED SCATTERED FLURRIES UP TO ABOUT 1PM IN THE NARROW
AXIS OF LAKE-TO- LAKE CONNECTION...BEFORE IT BREAKS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WK WV PASSING ATTM WILL BE WELL OUT OF THE
AREA BY 12Z. WITH VERY MRGNL DELTA T OFF THE LAKE...LACK OF
SYNOPTIC ASSISTANCE SHD END THE FLURRY AND DRIZZLE ACTIVITY OVER
THE NRN ZONES. WHILE THE NRMLY MOIST NAM DRIES OUT THE LL AND WLD
LEAD TO CDY SKIES...HRRR CLINGS TO A LL CLD DECK IN THE FCST AREA
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. GIVEN THE SEASON AND TRACK RECORD OF THE CRNT
SC DECK...XPCT MSTLY CDY SKIES TO CONT FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
QUIET WX PTRN CONTS IN THE SHRT TERM WITH A BROAD AREA OF HIPRES
OVER MUCH OF THE NRN PARTS OF THE US. THE FCST AREA...ON THE ERN
EDGE OF THE HI HAS A NW FLOW SFC AND ALOFT WITH WEAK WV DROPPING
INTO THE AREA FROM TIME TO TIME. DESPITE THE FLOW...HGTS RATHER
HIGH AND TEMPS ABV NRML SO VERY LIMITED CHANCE FOR ANY LE SNOW.

WV AND SFC TROF DROPS IN LATE TNGT AND EARLY SUN. ONCE
AGAIN...WITH VERY LTL COLD AIR LAKE RESPONSE WILL BE VERY LIMITED
WITH PERHAPS A SLGT CHANCE OF A LTL PCPN OVER THE NRN ZONES.
ANOTHER WV...MUCH WEAKER...PASSES MON WITH LTL EFFECT...OTR THAN
PERHAPS A FEW MORE CLDS.

MODEL GUID WAS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND MADE FOR A RATHER PAINLESS
TEMPS FCST IN THE SHRT TERM. USED A BLEND OF GUID FOR TEMPS IN
GRIDS.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
630 AM UPDATE...NO BIG CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED. MAIN ADDITION WAS
TO ADD A CHANCE FOR SNOW LATE WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS BOTH THE EURO AND GFS SHOW SOME LIGHT SNOW MOVING
THROUGH. ASIDE FROM THAT STILL LOOKING AT MAINLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS UNTIL SOMETIME NEXT WEEK WHEN IT LOOKS LIKE SOME COLDER AIR
MAY TRY TO MOVE OUR WAY. EVEN WITH THAT HOWEVER...THE 0Z
EURO...KEEPS THE MAIN CHUNK OF THE ARCTIC AIR WELL TO OUR NORTH
AND IT HAS DELAYED THE ONSET OF THIS COLDER AIR BY ANOTHER DAY OR
SO.

4PM FRIDAY UPDATE... ANOTHER MILD EXTENDED WITH A LACK
OF DECENT SNOW. MODELS AGREE ON THIS BUT NOT ON THE DETAILS. HPC
SIDING WITH ECMWF ENSEMBLE. A COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH TUESDAY
WITH SNOW SHOWERS FOLLOWED BY LAKE EFFECT SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT IN NW
FLOW. SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY SHUTTING THIS DOWN.
MODELS DISAGREE ON THE END OF THE WEEK. SEVERAL SOUTHERN STREAM
WAVES GO THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. SOME MODELS HAVE PRECIP
GETTING NORTH INTO THE AREA. BOTH THE EURO AND GFS HAVE A BROAD
UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SO COLD AIR STAYS
AWAY AND LOW LEVEL FLOW IS FRONT THE SOUTHWEST. NO LAKE EFFECT.
FRIDAY THIS TROF AND A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH BRINGING IN COLD
AIR FOR DAY 8 ON. SOME HOPE FOR COLDER WEATHER WEEK TWO AS THIS
LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROF SETS UP OVER THE NORTHEAST US SATURDAY AND
STAYS LONGER THAN 2 DAYS.

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
630 AM UPDATE...

TRICKY FORECAST WITH THE NY TERMINALS BOUNCING BETWEEN MVFR AND
VFR QUITE A BIT THIS MORNING. FEEL VFR WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL AT
KRME/KELM AND KAVP WITH AN BKN/OVC DECK BETWEEN 3500 AND 5000 FEET
BEFORE SCATTERING OUT THIS AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...SOME MVFR CIGS
ARE MOST LIKELY TO LAST AT KITH WHERE THEY ARE CURRENTLY
PREVAILING. EVEN HERE THOUGH EXPECT A RETURN TO VFR TOWARD MID-
MORNING. AT KSYR AND KBGM...WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF VARIANCE OVER
THE LAST FEW HOURS...THE CONFIDENCE IS ONLY HIGH ENOUGH IN MVFR
CIGS FOR A TEMPO GROUP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. STILL FEEL THIS IS
WARRENTED HOWEVER BASED ON MVFR CIGS NEAR THE TERMINALS AT THIS
MOMENT.

VFR LATER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

NORTHWEST WINDS THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AT 5 TO 10 KTS
BECOME CALM TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...

SUN...PSBL MVFR CIGS AND FLURRIES...MAINLY CENTRAL NY.

SUN NGT-MON...MAINLY VFR.

MON NGT-TUE NGT...PSBL MVFR/IFR IN LAKE-EFFECT SHSN.

WED...MAINLY VFR...BUT MVFR POSSIBLE TOWARD EVENING IN SNOW.

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM/MDP
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...HEDEN/TAC
AVIATION...HEDEN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

641 AM CST SAT FEB 4 2012

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN CONCERN TO STRATUS DECK FIRMLY ANCHORED OVER MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. A LONGER LOOP OF THE FOG IR IMAGERY SHOWS NORTH
EDGE OF THIS CLOUD MASS EDGING VERY SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH WHILE
EXPANSION CONTINUES WEST AND NORTHEAST. SHORT TERM MODELS NOT
RESOLVING THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WELL EXCEPT THE HRRR WHICH SHOWS
CONTINUATION OF THE CLOUDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY NORTH AND
WEST...AND OVERNIGHT OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL. SOME
FREEZING DRIZZLE MIXED IN WITH SOME FLURRIES BUT NO ACCUMULATION
EXCEPT A SLIGHT SHEEN TO VEHICLES WHICH HAVE BEEN OUT DURING THE
NIGHT.

.AVIATION...
LIFR AND IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MOST OF THE TAF
PERIOD SOUTH CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL...WHILE IMPROVEMENT THIS
AFTERNOON WEST AND NORTH.

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST /11 AM MST/ TODAY FOR
NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051.

SHORT TERM...HW
LONG TERM....HW
AVIATION...HW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

538 AM CST SAT FEB 4 2012

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY
248 AM CST SAT FEB 4 2012

THE MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS WITH CLOUD TRENDS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY A WARM UP ON MONDAY AND A COLD FRONT MONDAY
NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
248 AM CST SAT FEB 4 2012

THE QUIET WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK
WITH THE MAIN STORY BEING WITH A BRIEF COLD SURGE TOWARD THE LATER
PART OF THE WEEK.

.AVIATION...TODAY AND TONIGHT
538 AM CST SAT FEB 4 2012

AREAS OF BR CAN BE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THIS
MORNING...PRODUCING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. PLAN ON VISIBILITIES IN THE
2 TO 4 SM RANGE. THE BR WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE LATE THIS MORNING
AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT PROVIDING VFR
CONDITIONS. SCT/BKN MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MAY SPILL INTO THE
AREA FROM THE SOUTH AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE MID
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING SOME PATCHY FOG
MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THIS OCCURRING
GIVEN THE DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE MOVING IN WITH THE HIGH. WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL CLOSELY.

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
248 AM CST SAT FEB 4 2012

WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.

SHORT TERM...HALBACH
LONG TERM....HALBACH
AVIATION.....WETENKAMP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LINCOLN IL

1159 AM CST SAT FEB 4 2012

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1030 AM CST SAT FEB 4 2012
SHOWERS STILL OVER MUCH OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS
MORNING...PARTICULARLY STRETCHING FROM THE QUAD CITIES TO
CHAMPAIGN WITH THE MORE MODERATE SHOWERS. LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO
THE SOUTHWEST. CHANGING THE WORDING OF THE FORECAST TO REFLECT THE
LIGHTER SHOWERS/DRIZZLE TO THE SOUTH...AND TONE DOWN THE MAX TEMPS
ACROSS THE NORTH UNDER THE MORE MODERATE PRECIP. MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS...NEW GRIDS AND ZONES OUT MOMENTARILY.

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1155 AM CST SAT FEB 4 2012
FORECAST REMAINS VERY MUCH IN LINE WITH CURRENT
WEATHER...DEFORMATION AXIS ACROSS NRN TERMINALS PROVIDING FOCUS
FOR RAIN PIA/BMI/CMI...WITH MORE SHOWERY SCT ACTIVITY FURTHER TO
THE SOUTH. SOME IMPROVEMENT FOR THE SOUTH ANTICIPATED AS FAR AS
VIS...THOUGH MANY OF THE CIGS REMAIN CLOSE TO THE IFR/LIFR BREAK
AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AND EVENING. IMPROVEMENT
TO VFR CIGS THIS EVENING...THOUGH STILL UNDER 5KFT...AND MVFR VIS
LIKELY. TIME HEIGHT RH PORTRAYED IN BOTH GFS AND NAM SUGGEST
RETURN OF A DRY AIR COLUMN AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS
TOMORROW MORNING.

HJS
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 200 AM CST SAT FEB 4 2012

INITIAL FORECAST CONCERN REVOLVES AROUND THE EXTENT OF RAINFALL
TODAY AND THIS EVENING. LATER ON...POTENTIAL COOL SNAP LATE IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD IS THE FOCUS.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

GEELHART

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LINCOLN IL

1037 AM CST SAT FEB 4 2012

HJS
&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 515 AM CST SAT FEB 4 2012

SMITH
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 200 AM CST SAT FEB 4 2012

INITIAL FORECAST CONCERN REVOLVES AROUND THE EXTENT OF RAINFALL
TODAY AND THIS EVENING. LATER ON...POTENTIAL COOL SNAP LATE IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD IS THE FOCUS.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

GEELHART

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DES MOINES IA

341 PM CST SAT FEB 4 2012

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
PRIMARY CONCERNS REMAIN SNOW TRENDS. RADAR AND SATELLITE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT PRECIP INTENSITY IS BEGINNING TO WANE
WITH TOPS WARMING AND ECHOES DIMINISHING. MODELS CONFIRM THIS AS
WELL WITH 18Z RUC UVM AND MOISTURE BOTH DECREASING IN DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE AROUND H6/H5 OR 300K ISENT SURFACE. THIS THINKING HAS
LEAD TO CATEGORICAL POPS WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION THROUGH
00Z...FOLLOWED BY FURTHER DECREASE IN POPS AND NORTH TO SOUTH
COVERAGE LATER THIS EVENING. MOST LOCAL VISIBILITIES ARE NOW 1SM OR
GREATER. HEADLINES WERE TRIMMED TO 06Z THIS AFTERNOON AND COULD
VERY WELL NEED TO BE CANCELLED EVEN EARLIER THIS EVENING IF TRENDS
CONTINUE.

NEXT CONCERN TURNS TO CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. VERY SHALLOW STRATUS
AND FOG WAS MAKING HEADWAY SOUTH EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON BUT THAT HAS
NOW ERODED. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL LIKELY BE JUST STRONG ENOUGH TO
PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG. HOWEVER 21Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS
LACK OF MUCH DRYING UPSTREAM SO HAVE MENTIONED PATCHY FOG FOR A
START IN CASE THIS MOISTURE AREA DOES INDEED FILL BACK IN AGAIN.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW WILL HAVE PUSHED FURTHER EAST FOR BEGINNING OF PERIOD...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING IN. HAVE INCLUDED MENTION FOR FOG ACROSS THE
NORTH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...AND SHOULD LIFT BY LATE MORNING.
COULD AGAIN SEE FOG EARLY MONDAY...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
INCLUDE MENTION ATTM. LOW OVER ROCKIES WILL DEEPEN...AND REMAIN
OVER ROCKIES THROUGH TUESDAY WITH SPLIT FLOW OVER REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO MONDAY WITH WAA AND WEAK RIDGING OVER
IOWA.

STRONG WAVE WILL PUSH LOW OUT OF ROCKIES TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING
A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS IOWA. MODELS DO NOT HAVE GOOD RUN-
TO-RUN CONSISTENCY WITH TRACK OF LOW...BUT ARE BEGINNING TO PULL IT
FURTHER NORTH. HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. WILL LIKELY SEE
RAIN CHANGING OVER TO SNOW. CURRENTLY...LIFT IS A BIT
LACKING...AND PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BE LIGHT.

BEHIND LOW...ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH DOWN FROM CANADA.
ATTM APPEARS FROPA WILL BE DRY. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL WORK IN
BEHIND FRONT AND TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY COOL TOWARDS END OF
PERIOD.

.AVIATION...04/18Z
MAIN CONCERNS AT MIDDAY ARE OBVIOUSLY SNOW TRENDS...BUT ALSO LARGE
AREA OF LIFR STRATUS UPSTREAM ACROSS SD AND MN. MODEL TRENDS
SUGGEST LITTLE CHANGE WITH REGARD TO THE SNOW WITH PERSISTENT LIFR
AT KDSM AND IFR AT KOTM UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON WHEN CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE. NEXT CONCERN BECOMES FATE OF SD/MN LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG. SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE THAT IT IS SLOWLY ADVANCING
SOUTHWARD AND HAVE BROUGHT LIFR/IFR INTO KFOD/KMCW/KALO 22Z-06Z.
POTENTIAL IS CERTAINLY THERE FARTHER SOUTH /KDSM/KOTM/ BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT THERE YET SO HAVE ONLY INTRODUCED RADIATION FOG
AND MVFR/LIFR VSBYS.

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR ADAIR-ADAMS-
AUDUBON-CASS-DALLAS-GUTHRIE-MADISON-POLK-UNION.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR CLARKE-
DECATUR-JASPER-LUCAS-MAHASKA-MARION-POWESHIEK-RINGGOLD-TAYLOR-
WARREN.

SHORT TERM...SMALL
LONG TERM...AWB
AVIATION...SMALL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DES MOINES IA

146 PM CST SAT FEB 4 2012

.UPDATE...
HAVE MADE SOME HEADLINE ADJUSTMENTS WITH AFTERNOON UPDATE BASED ON
CURRENT TRENDS. SNOW DID NOT ADVANCE AS FAR NORTH AS ANTICIPATED SO
HIGHWAY 30 TIER OF WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES HAS BEEN CANCELLED. WEST
TO EAST ORIENTED AXIS OF HEAVIER AMOUNTS HAS EXTENDED TOWARD
GRINNELL AND OSKALOOSA AREAS HOWEVER SO ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXPANDED
INTO THOSE AREAS. VARIOUS WRF RUNS...ALONG WITH HRRR AND RAPID
REFRESH MODELS...ALL SUGGEST PRECIP SHOULD END THIS EVENING SO HAVE
ENDED ALL HEADLINES AT 06Z RATHER THAN 12Z. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH
BLOWING OR DRIFTING OVERNIGHT DUE TO HEAVY WET NATURE OF THE SNOW.
JUST RECEIVED AN ISOLATED REPORT OF 11.5 INCHES NEAR
CUMBERLAND...ALTHOUGH GENERAL SNOW TOTALS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO VARY
FROM 5 TO 10 INCHES IN THE WARNING.

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
POWERFUL WINTER STORM CURRENTLY ONGOING OVER SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO
SOUTHWEST IA. LARGE UPPER LOW IS GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST ACROSS
NEBRASKA AND KANSAS THIS MORNING. THE STRONGEST PV ANOMALY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM IS LIFTING TOWARD SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA...WHERE CONVECTIVE SNOW HAS BEEN ONGOING FOR THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS. CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS ALSO CURRENTLY LIFTING NORTH OUT
OF MISSOURI AND INTO SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ABOVE
700 MB BECOME RELATIVELY STEEP AS THE PV ANOMALY AND ATTENDANT MID
LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION LIFT NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL IA AND LOWER THE
STATIC STABILITY AND INCREASE MUCAPES TO AROUND 100 J/KG. THEREFORE
CAN NOT RULE OUT A PERIOD OF THUNDER SNOW THIS MORNING.

THE PRIMARY CHALLENGE WITH THE SYSTEM IS ESTABLISHING THE NORTHWARD
EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH DRY AIR ADVECTING SOUTHWARD THROUGH
NORTHERN IOWA FROM THE DAKOTAS HIGH PRESSURE. TIME HEIGHT CROSS
SECTIONS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT SINCE THE 00Z FEB 3 RUNS OF PLACING
THE STRONGEST FORCING THIS MORNING SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE HIGHWAY 30
AND INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDORS AND JUST NORTH OF WHERE THE MODEL ENDS
PRECIPITATION. THIS IS A TYPICAL BIAS IN MODELS WITH SUCH SITUATIONS
WHERE THE MODELS GIVE MORE WEIGHT TO THE INITIAL LOW LEVEL DRY AIR
DESPITE VERY STRONG DYNAMICS THAT TYPICALLY CAN PRECIP LOAD THIS
REGION FOR A SUSTAINED PERIOD. WITH PWAT VALUES NEARLY 200 PERCENT
ABOVE SEASONAL VALUES...SUFFICIENT MOISTURE IS IN PLACE TODAY FOR
HEAVY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. STILL VERY POSSIBLE TO HAVE A NARROW BAND OF
HEAVY SNOW THROUGH CENTRAL IA NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF DES MOINES THEN
FANNING AND WIDENING TO THE SOUTHWEST. SHOULD HAVE A PERIOD OF GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS AND WILL CREATE SOME BLOWING SNOW...THAT HAS BEEN
ADDED. HEADLINES REMAIN THE SAME...POSSIBLE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
AND ADDITIONS MAY BE REQUIRED ON THE EDGES.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE AREA TODAY...WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TONIGHT AS
IT DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO MISSOURI. THIS SHOULD ALLOW ANY
LINGERING PRECIPITATION TO TAPER OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH EARLY THIS
EVENING...WITH MAYBE A BIT OF LIGHT SNOW STILL LINGERING ALONG THE
IA/MO BORDER THROUGHOUT THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. MAJORITY OF
ACCUMULATING PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE DONE BY EARLY EVENING...WITH
AROUND A FEW TENTHS TO ANOTHER HALF INCH OF SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN CWA THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE EXPECT CLOUDS TO CLEAR
QUITE RAPIDLY LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER LARGE AREA OF STRATUS SITUATED
TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST OF THE CWA ATTM...SO SOMEWHAT CONCERNED COULD
HAVE SOME LOW CLOUDS LINGER LATE TONIGHT. FOR NOW MODELS SEEM NOT
PICKING UP ON IT...SO DID KEEP CLOUD COVER UP A BIT LATE
TONIGHT...JUST IN CASE LOW STRATUS LINGERS. OTHERWISE QUIET FORECAST
EXPECTED FOR MAJORITY OF MID/LONG RANGE WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...BENEATH SPLIT-FLOW REGIME AND SOUTHERN STREAM
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. GFS/EC ADVERTISE ANOTHER TROUGH DIGGING INTO
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST BY LATER MONDAY...AND PUSH IT EASTWARD
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS COULD BRING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO
THE SOUTHERN CWA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE THE SYSTEM
SHOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY REGION WEDNESDAY. LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGEST ONLY POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA...SO HAVE CONFINED
POPS TO THAT AREA FOR THE TIMEFRAME...WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER
ACROSS REMAINDER OF CWA. OTHERWISE LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO DIG
INTO THE CENTRAL/EASTERN US FOR FRIDAY AND BEYOND...SUGGESTING
A PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR SOUTH. THIS WOULD SEND H85 TEMPS INTO THE
TEENS BELOW ZERO CELSIUS...AND WILL SEND MAX/MINS BELOW AVERAGE FOR
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND JUST BEYOND.

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 06Z
AUDUBON-GUTHRIE-DALLAS-POLK-CASS-ADAIR-MADISON-ADAMS-UNION-

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 06Z
CLARKE-DECATUR-JASPER-LUCAS-MARION-RINGGOLD-TAYLOR-WARREN-POWESHIEK-
MAHASKA-

UPDATE/AVIATION...SMALL
SHORT TERM...DONAVON
LONG TERM...BEERENDS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TOPEKA KS

308 PM CST SAT FEB 4 2012

.DISCUSSION...

SHORT RANGE FORECAST (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...

UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY CENTERED ROUGHLY OVER
KFNB AS OF 20Z PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS.
THE TROUGH HAS BEEN STEADY STATE REGARDING INTENSITY THROUGHOUT THE
DAY...MEANING IT HAS NOT UNDERGONE SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING OR
WEAKENING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO INDICATING A SLOT OF DRY AIR
STRETCHING FROM SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE
OKLAHOMA/TEXAS PANHANDLES. THIS DRY SLOT HAS CAUSED THE MID LEVELS
TO BECOME RATHER DRY...WHICH HAS CREATED A DRIZZLY AFTERNOON ACROSS
MUCH OF NORTHEAST KANSAS..ESPECIALLY EAST OF A MARYSVILLE TO TO
ABILENE LINE. WEST AND NORTH OF THAT LINE VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
ARE PERSISTING AS THE UPPER LOW RESIDES OVER THE AREA. WITH THE LACK
OF ANY APPRECIABLE MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND MEAGER OVERALL LIFT
INDICATED BY OMEGA VALUES PROGGED TO BE IN THE -2 TO -4 MICROBAR/SEC
RANGE...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH MORE SNOW TO FALL ACROSS ANY OF THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ACROSS FAR EASTERN KANSAS...EXPECT CLOUDY CONDITIONS TO REMAIN WITH
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND PATCHY DRIZZLE. LATER THIS AFTERNOON
FORECAST MODELS HINT AT SOME DEEPER MOISTENING OF THE ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE
INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR LATER TONIGHT. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE PRETTY
MEAGER WITH ONLY A TENTH OR TWO OF AN INCH OF SNOW. EXPECT PRECIP TO
COME TO A GRADUAL END BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING AS THE UPPER SYSTEM COMPLETELY MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. EXPECT
SKIES TO ALSO GRADUALLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT AND THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON
SUNDAY. MADE VERY FEW CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES FOR THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS SATURDAY AND DAYTIME PERIOD ON SUNDAY...BUT DID LOWER TEMPS ON
THE ORDER OF 3 TO 5 DEGREES WHERE THE MOST SNOW FELL...NAMELY ACROSS
CLOUD...REPUBLIC...WASHINGTON...AND MARSHALL COUNTIES.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND AMPLIFYING
SOUTHERN RIDGE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS TRANQUIL ACROSS THE PLAINS
MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE
REGION ON MONDAY ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE ALONG WITH
WEAK WAA. MODELS PROG CANADIAN TROF TO SWEEP CUTOFF LOW OVER THE
WASATCH RANGE MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND OUT ONTO THE PLAINS BY MONDAY
NIGHT. AFTERNOON HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN
THE MID TO UPPER 40`S DUE TO THE WEAK WAA. THE NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 30`S WITH THE SNOW COVER.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE
CWA TUESDAY MORNING. MID LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTS INTO THE AREA FROM
THE WEST...WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTS IN WITH THE COLD AIR
BEHIND THE 850MB FRONT MID DAY TUESDAY. BUMPED UP POPS A BIT
TUESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH SLOWLY GROWING CONFIDENCE THAT
PRECIP WILL OCCUR ON TUESDAY. ECMWF AND GFS HAD DIVERGED WITH THE
AREAS OF GREATEST QPF. GFS WAS MUCH FURTHER NORTH AND AWAY FROM BEST QG
FORCING SUPPORT OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA. ECMWF HAD BEEN
IN BETTER ALIGNMENT WITH THE QG FORCING. HOWEVER...LATEST ECMWF
ALIGNS IN BETTER AGREEMENT TO THE GFS THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...AND GIVEN
THE SIGNIFICANT PV ANOMALY PROGGED TO TRAVERSE EASTERN KANSAS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THINKING IS THAT ECMWF MAY BE ON
TRACK WITH HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS OVER EASTERN KANSAS THAN PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT. FOR NOW...GIVEN INCONSISTENCY IN THE MODELS...BUMPED POPS
UP ONLY SLIGHTLY. NEXT QUESTION WILL BE PRECIP TYPE. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE SFC TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO THE FREEZING MARK AT
THE SURFACE WITH DEPTHS OF ABOUT 400 FEET BEFORE SUB-ZERO
TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED ALOFT. HOWEVER...GFS DEPICTS 500MB DRY
SLOT NEAR THE ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH ZONE. IF ENOUGH DRY AIR WORKS INTO
THE GROWTH ZONE TO INHIBIT ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH...MAY ONLY SEE RAIN
INSTEAD OF ANY SNOW. LIFT IS NOT ABUNDANT WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND
MOST OF THE QG FORCING IS STILL PROGGED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
CWA...BUT IF THE PV ANOMALY IS AS STRONG AS DEPICTED COUPLED WITH
MODERATE MOISTURE ADVECTION...COULD POSSIBLY SEE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF
AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION.

EXTENDED...SYSTEM EXITS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH THE NEXT
WAVE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS SYSTEM ALSO PROGGED TO HAVE A
STRONG PV ANOMALY...AND ECMWF IS PICKING UP ON SOME PRECIPITATION
OVER NORTHEAST KANSAS. ATTM...LEFT THE EXTENDED DRY GIVEN THE
VARIABILITY IN THE MODEL RUNS AND THE FAIRLY DRY ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. NEXT SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT EXPECTED THURSDAY EVENING AND
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES
WISE...SHOULD SEE HIGHS NEAR NORMAL WITH LOWS IN THE 20`S AND HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 30`S AND LOW 40`S. EXCEPTION WILL BE WITH THE SNOW
PACKED AREAS WITH HIGHS IN THE 30`S AND LOWS IN THE TEENS.

BYRNE

.AVIATION...

EXPECT LOW CIGS TO REMAIN THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT. EXPECT OFF
AND ON DRIZZLE TO REMAIN AT KTOP AND KFOE THROUGH AT LEAST
22Z...WITH LIMITED VISIBILITY BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. SOME LIGHT
SNOW MAY COMMENCE LATER THIS EVENING AS THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. LOWERED VISIBILITY DUE TO THE LIGHT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE...MAINLY AFTER 00Z. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY
IMPROVE SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR KSZ010.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR KSZ008-
009-020.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

1013 AM MST SAT FEB 4 2012

.DISCUSSION...
331 AM MST SAT FEB 4 2012

EARLY MORNING ANALYSIS OF RADAR TRENDS/WV IMAGERY/OBS INDICATED
BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW CONTINUED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH MODERATE ACCUMULATIONS HAVING BEEN
REPORTED OVER BOTH THE WESTERN AND EASTERN FRINGES WHILE THE
MIDDLE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA GENERALLY RECEIVED MUCH
LIGHTER ACCUMULATIONS. WILL BE MODIFYING ONGOING HIGHLIGHTS TO
REFLECT EXPECTED IMPACTS DURING THE DAY TODAY. HAVE ADJUSTED THE
WINTER STORM WARNING TO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA
WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PRIMARILY BLOWING SNOW OVER THE
WESTERN COUNTIES. THE EXCEPTIONS WILL THE FAR SOUTHERN KANSAS
COUNTIES AS WELL AS CHEYENNE COUNTY COLORADO WHERE LITTLE IF ANY
SNOW IS ANTICIPATED TODAY.

DO ANTICIPATE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN A BIT TODAY AS THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO OCCLUDE. SIX-HOUR PRESSURE RISES OF 4 TO 5
MB WILL OCCUR OVER THE EASTERN PORTION WITH 3 TO 4 MB SIX-HOUR
PRESSURE RISES OVER THE WEST. AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW
IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE AREA BEFORE TAPERING
OFF DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. PERHAPS ANOTHER INCH OR SO WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 25 AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 40
WHERE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE.

TEMPS DURING THE DAY TODAY WILL HOLD IN THE LOW TO MID 30S WHICH
IS AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE SKY WILL CLEAR OVERNIGHT
WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS DIMINISHING. FOR LOWS TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...TENDED TOWARD THE COLDEST GUIDANCE ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE
AREAS WHERE SNOW PACK WILL BE THE DEEPEST.

SNOW PACK WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT AFTERNOON TEMPS THROUGH AT LEAST
MONDAY WITH READINGS LIKELY REMAINING IN THE MID 30S WHICH
LOCATIONS FURTHER SOUTH WILL SEE TEMPS WARMING INTO THE LOW TO MID
40S. -FOLTZ

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...LONG RANGE MODELS AGREE THAT A 500 MB LOW
WILL EJECT EAST OVER THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY. HAVE CONTINUED A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW WITH THE SYSTEM DURING THE DAY. THE REST OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN
THIRD WHERE RECENT SNOW COVER WILL HOLD DOWN TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. THE BEST WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURS
FRIDAY WHEN TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH INTO THE 40S. -MENTZER

FOLTZ
&&

.AVIATION...
1002 AM MST SAT FEB 4 2012

MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE 18Z TAFS. SNOWFALL AND
LOW CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END DURING THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEAST. MODELS HAVE KGLD
UNDER MVFR CEILINGS FOR THE ENTIRE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER OBSERVATIONS
NORTH OF THE SITE INDICATE VFR CEILINGS. THE HRRR MODEL SEEMED TO
HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE CURRENT CEILINGS SO COMPROMISED
BETWEEN THAT AND THE OBSERVATIONS...BRINGING THE HIGHER CEILINGS
IN AROUND 21Z. FOR KMCK MVFR CEILINGS WILL LAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. DURING THE EVENING VFR CEILINGS WILL MOVE IN. WITH THE
RECENT SNOWFALL AND TEMPERATURES COOLING TO NEAR THE DEW
POINT...FOG MAY FORM AT BOTH SITES. HOWEVER THE DEW POINTS WILL
FALL DURING THE NIGHT AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN...SO FOG MAY NOT BE AN
ISSUE.

JTL
&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR KSZ002>004-
015-016-029.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON
FOR KSZ001-013-014-027-028.

NE...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NEZ080-081.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NEZ079.

CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ090-
091.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LOUISVILLE KY

1244 PM EST SAT FEB 04 2012

...Updated Aviation Discussion...
...11 AM Forecast Update...

Updated the forecast to adjust POPs to the radar trends this
morning. There`s not much redevelopment behind this main line of
rain near Lexington as of 16Z, so continued to trend downward with
POPs for at least the early afternoon hours. The latest mesoscale
models still suggest the possibility of some redevelopment as the
sfc low over MO this morning pushes east into central KY this
evening. Therefore did keep 60-70% POPs for late this
afternoon/early evening. Still looks like areas of south central KY
could see a rumble of thunder but it would be very isld if any at
all. Went ahead and trended POPs down quicker after 0Z based on 12Z
NAM guidance. Looks like we`ll see mostly isld showers and drizzle
for tonight.

Made just a few tweaks to temps based on the gradient of temps that
has set up along the warm front over north central KY. Overall this
lowered highs for today by a degree or 2 for most locations.

6 AM Forecast Update...

Did not change winds or temps/dewpoints other than to blend with
current obs. Updated products already out.

.Short Term (Today and Tonight)...

.Long Term (Sunday - Friday)...

Sunday - Sunday Night...

Monday - Tuesday...

Tuesday Night - Wednesday...

Wednesday Night - Friday...

.Aviation (18Z TAF Issuance)...

Complicated TAF forecast with several VSBY/CIG issues. These
problems are courtesy of a stalled sfc boundary over central KY and
an approaching sfc low which will move east into central KY this
evening, then SE to the Carolinas by Sun morning.

For BWG...CIGs have been troublesome with VFR CIGs being reported
out of BWG but a slew of CIGS around 1 kft are being reported at
nearby stations. Think that BWG CIGs will soon fall to around 1 kft
so will begin TAFs here with VCSH as well. Some showers and
possibly an isld t-storm are expected for this afternoon so will
continue the CB mention with MVFR conditions. Showers should taper
off this evening with lingering drizzle sticking around through the
overnight hours. CIGS look to go IFR around 2Z with VSBYs dropping
to IFR around 5Z. Conditions will begin to improve by mid morning.

For SDF...CIGs have already dropped to 600 ft this afternoon and
expect them to stay there. A few showers may redevelop by late
afternoon pushing VSBYs into the MVFR cat. After 2Z...expect CIGS
around 400 ft and patchy drizzle for much of the overnight hours
with MVFR VSBYs. Conditions should start to improve after 14Z.

For LEX...CIGs have started to decline and should reach 400 ft
shortly in light rain showers and IFR CIGs. While VSBYs are
expected to improve in about an hour after the rain shower moves
east, CIGS will likely stay around 400-600 ft for much of the
afternoon. A few showers may redevelop by late afternoon pushing
VSBYs into the MVFR cat. After 2Z...expect CIGS around 400 ft and
patchy drizzle for much of the overnight hours with IFR VSBYs.
Conditions should start to improve after 15Z.

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
$$

Update...........AMS
Short Term.......RJS
Long Term........BJS
Aviation.........AMS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LOUISVILLE KY

1118 AM EST SAT FEB 04 2012

...11 AM Forecast Update...

Made just a few tweaks to temps based on the gradient of temps that
has set up along the warm front over north central KY. Overall this
lowered highs for today by a degree or 2 for most locations.

6 AM Forecast Update...

Did not change winds or temps/dewpoints other than to blend with
current obs. Updated products already out.

.Short Term (Today and Tonight)...

.Long Term (Sunday - Friday)...

Sunday - Sunday Night...

Monday - Tuesday...

Tuesday Night - Wednesday...

Wednesday Night - Friday...

.Aviation (12Z TAF Issuance)...

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
$$

Update...........AMS
Short Term.......RJS
Long Term........BJS
Aviation.........RJS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAY ME

1109 AM EST SAT FEB 4 2012

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1606Z UPDATE...
MOST OF THE SNOW SHOWERS FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING HAVE DISSIPATED
OR MOVED OFFSHORE. A QUICK INCH OF SNOW FELL IN A FEW COMMUNITIES
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH. HAVE LOWERED POPS WITH IMPROVING
SKY CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. HAVE NUDGED TEMPS
DOWNWARDS A DEGREE OR TWO AND ADJUSTED DEW POINTS BASED ON 16Z
OBSERVATIONS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS WITH BORDERLINE SCA TYPE WINDS ON THE MARINE LAYER.

UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED TO INCLUDE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MORNING PTN OF THE
FORECAST. EVEN A FEW BRIEF SQUALLS CAN BE EXPECTED TO CROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS PER LATEST RADAR TRENDS
AND LOCAL OBSERVATIONS. UPPED POPS AND CLOUD FCST TO INTO THE
LIKELY AND CATEGORICAL RANGE ACROSS PTNS OF SW MAINE. RAN THE SNOW
TOTAL TOOL TO SHOW ABOUT 1" OR SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS PTNS OF
SOUTHERN MAINE. THIS IS IN LINE WITH THE LATEST HRRR MODEL RUN.

REST OF THE FCST WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED AT THIS TIME.

GENERALLY USED GFS40...HPC QPF AND BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS FOR SUNDAY
NGT AND MONDAY. USED GMOS FOR REST OF THE LONG TERM FCST... EXCEPT
USED A BLEND OF GFS40 AND MEX MOS GUIDANCE FOR MAX AND MIN TEMPS.

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...INCREASING SW FLOW
LIKELY TO CREATE SCA WINDS AND SEAS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NGT. CD NW
FLOW TUESDAY NGT MAY ALSO RESULT IN SCA WINDS.

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

1250 PM EST SAT FEB 4 2012

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 18Z TAFS

.SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 401 AM EST

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THRU SUN NGT/... ISSUED AT 401 AM EST

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY/...

.AVIATION /FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

WITH LINGERING UPSLOPE AIDED LOW CLOUDS CURRENTLY SCATTERING OUT AT
KCMX...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTN.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL ALSO PREVAIL AT KIWD/KSAW THIS AFTN. LATER THIS
AFTN/EVENING...A LOW PRES TROF WILL PASS ACROSS UPPER MI. ALTHOUGH
LOW CLOUDS (IFR/LOW MVFR) ARE TENDING TO DISSIPATE NW AND N OF LAKE
SUPERIOR AND STATISTICAL GUIDANCE MAINTAINS VFR CLOUD BASES...OPTED
TO BRING A PERIOD OF LOW MVFR CIGS TO KCMX/KSAW AFTER TROF PASSAGE
THIS EVENING AS WINDS VEER MORE NORTHERLY AND DAYTIME MIXING ENDS.
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT IFR CIGS COULD DEVELOP. KIWD SHOULD BE
W OF THE BETTER PUSH OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...SO KEPT CLOUDS SCT
THERE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO KCMX/KSAW LATE TONIGHT/SUN
MORNING AS WINDS BACK WESTERLY.

.MARINE /FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST/...

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

UPPER MICHIGAN...NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE.

SYNOPSIS...KC
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...JLA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED TIME ON AVIATION DISCUSSION

NWS BINGHAMTON NY

1252 PM EST SAT FEB 4 2012

MODEL GUID WAS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND MADE FOR A RATHER PAINLESS
TEMPS FCST IN THE SHRT TERM. USED A BLEND OF GUID FOR TEMPS IN
GRIDS.

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPDATED AS OF 1245 PM SAT... VFR SHOULD BE THE PREVALENT CONDITION
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PD. N TO NW WINDS 5-10 KT THIS AFTN...WILL
DIMINISH THIS EVE.

SUN AM...A LWR CLOUD DECK WILL ENCROACH ON CNY/NE PA FROM NW TO
SE...AS A WEAK BNDRY PUSHES INTO THE RGN. MVFR IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AT KSYR AND KRME...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SAME AT KITH AND
KBGM. WINDS WILL TURN NW AGAIN AT 5-10 KT.

.OUTLOOK...

SUN NGT-MON...MAINLY VFR.

MON NGT-TUE NGT...PSBL MVFR/IFR IN LAKE-EFFECT SHSN.

WED...MAINLY VFR...BUT MVFR POSSIBLE TOWARD EVENING IN LGT SNOW.

THU...MVFR/IFR PSBL IN LGT SNOW.

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM/MDP
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...HEDEN/TAC
AVIATION...HEDEN/MLJ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS FORT WORTH TX

1127 AM CST SAT FEB 4 2012

.AVIATION...
GFS/NAM AND MOS HAVE NO CLUE THAT THE NORTH WINDS ARE BLOWING OFF
A DEEP SNOW PACK IN KS/CO..AND SO THEY ARE FORECASTING VFR THRU
PERIOD. SATELLITE SHOWS MVFR CLOUDS ALREADY CROSSING RED RIVER.
LATEST HRRR HAS STARTED TO GET THE IDEA AND BRINGS SCT MVFR
CLOUDS ACROSS METROPLEX THIS AFTN. I WILL FORECAST SCT025 THIS
AFTERNOON AS DAYTIME WARMING WILL LIKELY HELP BREAK UP THE
LAYER...BUT PATCHY BRIEF BKN AREAS ARE POSSIBLE. AFTER
SUNSET...AS BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS...CLOUDS SHOULD THICKEN AND 025
CIGS ARE PROBABLE. HAVE ADDED THEM TO THE METROPLEX TAFS THROUGH
MID MORNING SUNDAY.

WITH WACO AT A LOWER ELEVATION...HAVE FORECAST CIGS TONIGHT TO BE
A BIT HIGHER. 84

.UPDATE...
EXCEPT FOR A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHEAST...ALL
PRECIPITATION HAS EXITED NORTH TEXAS LATE THIS MORNING. SCATTERED
TO BROKEN MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LINGER OVER NORTH TEXAS
THROUGH THE DAY AND EVEN SOME LOWER CLOUDS SHOULD CROSS THE RED
RIVER THIS AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY
DUE TO THE NUMEROUS BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND CONTINUED COLD AIR
ADVECTION BEHIND YESTERDAYS COLD FRONT. FOR NOW THE CURRENT
TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE BUT WE WILL MAKE A
FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. WE WILL ALSO ADJUST
THE HOURLY CLOUD AND WIND GRIDS. 79

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CST SAT FEB 4 2012/
A COLD FRONT HAD EXITED THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF NORTH TEXAS AS
OF 3 AM...EXTENDING SOUTHEAST OF A PARIS...PALESTINE...COLLEGE
STATION...SAN MARCOS LINE. THE MAIN BAND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDED SOUTHEAST OF AN ATHENS TO GEORGETOWN
LINE...WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS EXTENDING BACK TO JUST EAST OF
A KILLEEN...DALLAS...PARIS LINE. EXPECT THE RAIN TO END BY MID
MORNING ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...BELIEVE THAT PRECIPITATION FROM THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE CONFINED TO SOUTH TEXAS...SO HAVE LOWERED THE POPS
TO 10 PERCENT AND REMOVED MENTION OF SHOWERS ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. WE WILL SEE COOL...NEAR SEASONAL
NORMAL...WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE NEXT WEEK. AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE PLAINS TUESDAY THERE COULD BE SOME LOW RAIN
CHANCES...AT THIS TIME HAVE JUST PLACED 20 PERCENT POPS ACROSS
THE EASTERNMOST ZONES. AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL DIG SOUTH TO
OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST BY TUESDAY NIGHT...AND THEN INTO
THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM
SHOULD THEN MOVE EASTWARD DURING THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN
DRY WEATHER CONTINUING ACROSS MOST OF NORTH TEXAS THROUGH THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. 58

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 59 36 51 35 54 / 5 0 5 5 5
WACO, TX 61 38 53 34 56 / 10 5 10 5 5
PARIS, TX 60 35 51 33 55 / 5 5 5 5 5
DENTON, TX 57 33 49 32 53 / 5 0 5 0 5
MCKINNEY, TX 60 35 50 33 54 / 5 0 5 5 5
DALLAS, TX 61 37 51 36 56 / 5 5 5 5 5
TERRELL, TX 61 36 51 34 55 / 5 5 5 5 5
CORSICANA, TX 60 38 53 36 56 / 10 5 10 5 5
TEMPLE, TX 61 39 53 35 56 / 10 5 10 5 5
MINERAL WELLS, TX 59 32 51 31 54 / 5 0 5 0 5

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

342 PM CST SAT FEB 4 2012

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
341 PM CST SAT FEB 4 2012

AT 3 PM...A 1034 MB HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS.
THIS HIGH HAS CREATED A RATHER STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BELOW
950 MB AND THIS HAS TRAPPED IN THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...AND
MUCH OF THE DAKOTA. THE SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON HAS HAS CAUSE SOME
DISSIPATION OF THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE CITIES AND IN
DODGE COUNTY. MEANWHILE...A LONG DEFORMATION ZONE EXTENDED FROM
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW LOCATED OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND CENTRAL
KANSAS...EAST ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA...AND THEN SOUTH TO SURFACE LOW
LOCATED OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY. CLOSER TO HOME...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
HAVE PERSISTED ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. WITH ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE 35 TO 45 DEGREE
RANGE. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN FOUND IN THE CONIFER AREAS
OF CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THIS IS FAIRLY TYPICAL DURING
FEBRUARY AND MARCH. THIS IS SIMPLY A RESULT OF THE TREES HAVING A
MUCH LOWER ALBEDO THAN THE AREAS WHICH STILL HAVE SOME SNOW
COVER...AND A SLIGHTLY HIGHER SUN ANGLE.

WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA SLOWLY SLIDING SOUTH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT...THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
STRENGTH OF THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION TONIGHT. BOTH THE HRRR AND
RUC INDICATE THAT THE 975 MB MOISTURE /ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST/ WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO
THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. HOWEVER DUE TO THE WIND SPEEDS IN THE 5
TO 10 KNOT RANGE...THINKING THAT A MAJORITY OF THIS MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN AS CLOUDS...SO HIT THE CLOUD COVER HARDER THAN THE FOG.
LIKE THIS MORNING...THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY AREAS OF DENSE FOG.
HOWEVER IF THE WINDS ALOFT ARE LIGHTER THAN
ANTICIPATED...WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG COULD BE A POSSIBILITY.

ON SUNDAY MORNING...THERE SHOULD BE NO CLOUDS ABOVE THE LOW LAYER
CLOUDS AND FOG. THEREFORE...THE SUN SHOULD HAVE BETTER SUCCESS
THAN EARLIER THIS WEEK AT ERODING THE CLOUD DECK DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW ENOUGH HOURS OF SUNSHINE
FOR OUR TEMPERATURES TO ONCE AGAIN CLIMB TO NEAR 40 DURING THE MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON.

UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ON SUNDAY NIGHT...THE TEMPERATURES SHOULD
FALL THROUGH EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT...AND THEN AS WARM AIR
ADVECTION DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF A LONG WAVE
TROUGH TEMPERATURES WILL EITHER BECOME STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE. DUE
TO THIS...WENT WITH A NON DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.

ON MONDAY...IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE PLENTY
SUNSHINE ACROSS THE REGION. IN ADDITION...THERE WILL BE 4 TO 6C
925 MB TEMPERATURES TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE THROUGH DIURNAL
MIXING. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH A DWINDLING SNOW PACK WILL RESULT
IN TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...A CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION. THIS IS 12 TO 18 HOURS SLOW THAN
YESTERDAY. THIS WILL MARK A RETURN OF NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE
FORECAST AREA. THE NAM/WRF HAS A DEEPER LAYER OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...SO IT GENERATES SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES ALONG AND
IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT. MEANWHILE THE GEM...GFS...AND ECMWF
HAVE A VERY SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE...SO NONE OF THEM GENERATE
ANY PRECIPITATION. SINCE THE LATTER MODELS HAVE BEEN MORE
CONSISTENT...THE DRY FORECAST WAS MAINTAINED. HOWEVER THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WERE RAISED A BIT TO TAKE IN ACCOUNT THIS
VERY SMALL POSSIBILITY FOR SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
341 PM CST SAT FEB 4 2012

THERE CONTINUES TO BE MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH THE WESTERN EXTENT OF
THE LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN NORTH NORTH AMERICA. HOWEVER
THE 04.12Z ECMWF HAS COME MORE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE OPERATIONAL
GFS AND ITS FAMILY MEMBERS. IT NOW SHOWS THAT THE COLDEST AIR WILL
REMAIN OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST..AND THE ARCTIC AIR WILL BE GLANCING
THE AREA BEFORE A QUICK RETURN TO ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM THE
TEENS TO MID 20S WHICH IS AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS GLANCING BRUSH OF ARCTIC TEMPERATURES HAS
BEEN WELL INDICATED BY THE CFS VERSION 2 FOR NEARLY TWO WEEKS.
THIS UPPER AIR PATTERN ALSO FITS IN WELL WITH THE ANOMALOUS
CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN PACIFIC RETROGRADING
WESTWARD TOWARD INDONESIA.

WITH THE GEM...GFS...AND ECMWF CONTINUING TO SHOW THAT THIS TIME
PERIOD WOULD REMAIN MAINLY DRY...KEPT THE DRY FORECAST INTACT.

.AVIATION...THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY
1146 AM CST SAT FEB 4 2012

A VERY DIFFICULT AVIATION FORECAST...EVEN FOR THE NEXT 6 TO 12
HOURS...DUE MOSTLY TO THE PRESENCE OF A VLIFR/LIFR STRATUS DECK
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. UNDERNEATH
THE STRATUS DECK...VISIBILITIES RANGE FROM LIFR TO IFR WITH SLOW
IMPROVEMENT OCCURRING THROUGH THE MORNING. SUNSHINE APPEARS TO
HAVE STALLED THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE STRATUS TO THE DODGE
CENTER MN AREA. QUESTION WITH THE STRATUS DECK OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
MINNESOTA IS HOW MUCH MIXES/CLEARS OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON.
SCENARIO 1...IF IT MOST OF IT CLEARS OUT...THEN WE WAIT FOR A
10-15 KT NORTHWEST WIND SITTING ABOVE THE SURFACE TO BRING THE
STRATUS OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO THE TAF SITES. SCENARIO
2...IF SOME OF THE STRATUS STILL EXISTS BY THE TIME THE SUN STARTS
TO SET...THE NORTHWEST WIND WOULD BRING IT INTO THE TAF SITES
QUICKER. TRIED TO PLAY A SEMI-COMPROMISE APPROACH...BRINGING THE
STRATUS INTO KRST AROUND 03Z AND KLSE AT 04Z. DID THROW IN A VCFG
AND SCT002 AT KRST FROM 21-03Z IN CASE IT COMES IN FASTER.
ANTICIPATING CEILINGS TO DROP TO LIFR-IFR. VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY
TO COME DOWN TOO...BUT THE WIND MAY ONLY ALLOW THEM TO DROP TO
IFR-MVFR. AFTER A FEW HOURS...INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE WIND SHOULD
HELP TO BRING CEILINGS UP A FEW HUNDRED FEET. LATE SUNDAY
MORNING...HEATING MAY ALLOW THE STRATUS AND BR TO DISSIPATE...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW BEING AT THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AND MODEL
HANDLING OF THE STRATUS LATELY. THEREFORE...HAVE NOT SHOWN THIS
CLEARING YET.

NEEDLESS TO SAY...THE AVIATION FORECAST IS LOW CONFIDENCE. BIG
THING RIGHT NOW IS MONITORING HOW MUCH STRATUS MIXES/CLEARS OUT
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA.

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
245 PM CST SAT FEB 4 2012

WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...AJ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

1146 AM CST SAT FEB 4 2012

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY
248 AM CST SAT FEB 4 2012

THE MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS WITH CLOUD TRENDS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY A WARM UP ON MONDAY AND A COLD FRONT MONDAY
NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
248 AM CST SAT FEB 4 2012

THE QUIET WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK
WITH THE MAIN STORY BEING WITH A BRIEF COLD SURGE TOWARD THE LATER
PART OF THE WEEK.

.AVIATION...THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY
1146 AM CST SAT FEB 4 2012

NEEDLESS TO SAY...THE AVIATION FORECAST IS LOW CONFIDENCE. BIG
THING RIGHT NOW IS MONITORING HOW MUCH STRATUS MIXES/CLEARS OUT
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA.

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
248 AM CST SAT FEB 4 2012

WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.

SHORT TERM...HALBACH
LONG TERM....HALBACH
AVIATION...AJ