Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 01/28/12
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1010 PM EST FRI JAN 27 2012
.UPDATE...
NEAR TERM FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW AND SHORT
TERM SECTION HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO
CENTRAL INDIANA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR LIGHT SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION. COLDER AIR WILL
SPREAD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND WITH THE
POSSIBILITY FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES AS A
SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH THE AREAS SUNDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL PRECIP
CHANCES ARRIVE FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN FOR LATE NEXT
WEEK AS A SERIES OF FRONTS PASS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...
MAIN ADJUSTMENT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL BE TO SLOW DOWN
TIMING OF SNOW A LITTLE. BOTH RUC AND NEW NAM SHOW ALMOST ZERO QPF
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA PRIOR TO 09Z. IN
ADDITION 1000-850 MB THICKNESS DO NOT DROP TO 1300 AT KIND UNTIL
AROUND 09Z. BUFKIT SHOWS GREATEST QPF OCCURRING DURING THE 09Z-14Z
PERIOD. WILL NOT MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO SNOW TOTALS OTHER
THAN TO DELAY THE TIMING A LITTLE WHERE SOME OF THIS WILL OCCUR
AFTER 12Z ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR REGION.
PRIOR TO 09Z WILL GO WITH A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW OVER ALL BUT
FAR NORTHWEST AREAS. PREVIOUS FORECAST RELIED HEAVILY ON LAV
TEMPERATURES AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE.
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE WILL SWEEP INTO THE
FORECAST AREA TOWARDS DAYBREAK WITH PRECIP ENDING SHORTLY
THEREAFTER.
TEMPS...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...EXPECT SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER
AT OR ABOVE FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. HAVE LEANED QUITE A BIT
CLOSER TO THE LAMP AND SREF RAW TEMPS AS OPPOSED TO MOS WHICH LOOKS
TO BE TOO COLD. ANY DROPS TO BELOW FREEZING TEMPS SHOULD NOT TAKE
PLACE UNTIL AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH THE
BOUNDARY LOCATED SOMEWHERE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA AT 12Z.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
RAISED POPS A LITTLE OVER ALL BUT FAR WESTERN SECTIONS EARLY
SATURDAY DUE TO SLOWER MOVEMENT OF SNOW. PREVIOUS SHORT TERM
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS BELOW.
FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON TEMPS AND WINDS IN WAKE OF THE CLIPPER
SATURDAY...AND POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
WITH A SECONDARY CLIPPER SUNDAY MORNING.
SHARP SUBSIDENCE AND DEEP DRYING ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
IN WAKE OF THE FRONT SATURDAY MORNING. PRECIP SET TO END OVER
EASTERN COUNTIES BY MID MORNING AT THE LATEST. IN PRESENCE OF
ABUNDANT DRY AIR...SKIES WILL BECOME MAINLY SUNNY FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE DAY. STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND COLD ADVECTION IN WAKE OF THE
CLIPPER WILL HELP FEED LOW LEVEL MIXING SATURDAY WITH GUSTY WINDS OF
30 TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE. GUSTS WILL DROP OFF SATURDAY NIGHT BUT
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT AND SHOULD ENABLE SUSTAINED
OF 10-20MPH ALL NIGHT. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROTATES THROUGH THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES.
SHORTWAVE ALOFT AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY AT SURFACE WILL ROTATE THROUGH
THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING. FORCING ALOFT IS WEAKER WITH
THIS SYSTEM AS OPPOSED TO THE ONE PASSING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THAT AREA OF FORCING IS
FOCUSED MORE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF INDIANA AS OPPOSED TO THE
GREAT LAKES AND MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME WEAK INSTABILITY
PRESENT IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER FOR SUNDAY MORNING. DESPITE LIMITED
MOISTURE...THINK THE PRESENCE OF THE FORCING AND INSTABILITY WILL
PROVIDE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF MORE THAN JUST FLURRIES SUNDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN COUNTIES. HAVE INSERTED ACCUMS
OF A FEW TENTHS FOCUSED FROM LAFAYETTE TO MUNCIE WITH TRACE
AMOUNTS AS FAR SOUTH AS THE I-70 CORRIDOR. WILL BE A MUCH DRIER
SNOW WITH A COLDER AIRMASS PRESENT. ALL SNOW WILL BE EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY MIDDAY. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES CAN THEN BE EXPECTED
FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
TEMPS...COULD SEE TEMPS FALL A COUPLE DEGREES FROM 12Z LOWS SATURDAY
MORNING AS INITIAL SURGE OF COLD ADVECTION BEHIND FRONT ARRIVES.
TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND SOME FOR THE AFTERNOON BUT IN COLD ADVECTION
PATTERN AM UNDERCUTTING GUIDANCE. LOWS WILL BE REACHED SATURDAY
NIGHT BY MIDNIGHT AS QUICK SHOT OF WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPS AHEAD OF
THE SECONDARY CLIPPER. LEANED TOWARDS COOLER MAVMOS FOR SUNDAY WITH
THE RENEWAL OF COLD ADVECTION IN WAKE OF THE SECOND CLIPPER. COLDEST
NIGHT WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE LOWER 20S FOR
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS CONCUR WITH ACTIVE PATTERN. BIG DIFFERENCES MORE IN TIMING
THAN CONCEPTS. THIS IS A SITUATION THAT CALLS FOR ENSEMBLE
TACTICS. ALL BLEND PROVIDED BY CENTRAL REGION SHOULD BE JUST THE
TICKET.
MOST IMPORTANT QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER WE CAN PRODUCE ANY SNOW IN
SYSTEMS PASSING FRIDAY. RIGHT NOW...ITS JUST TOO EARLY SAY MORE
THAN A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 280300Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
UPDATED KIND FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS ONLY. WHILE KLAF HAS FALLEN TO
MVFR WITH LIGHT SNOW...THIS CURRENT BAND OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WITH
MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE OUT OF THERE VERY SHORTLY AND THUS WILL NOT
AMEND FOR IT.
CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHING THE AREA WILL BRING MVFR CEILINGS AND
SNOW TO THE NORTHERN SITES TONIGHT...WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW TO
THE SOUTH. MODELS INCLUDING THE RUC ARE RUNNING SLOWER AND THUS
PUSHED BACK THE ARRIVAL AND EXIT OF THE SNOW BY A FEW HOURS. WITH
THE BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE TO THE NORTH HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO
GROUP OF IFR VISIBILITIES AT KLAF. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE MOVING
OUT OF THE AREA STARTING AROUND 12Z IN THE WEST AND WORKING ITS WAY
EAST. SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM SHOULD ALLOW MVFR
CLOUDS TO SCATTER OUT BY LATE MORNING. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL BRING WIND GUSTS WITH IT...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF
10-20 KTS AND GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE
DAY.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN/JH
SHORT TERM...RYAN/JH
LONG TERM....JK
AVIATION...CP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
923 PM EST FRI JAN 27 2012
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO
CENTRAL INDIANA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR LIGHT SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION. COLDER AIR WILL
SPREAD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND WITH THE
POSSIBILITY FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES AS A
SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH THE AREAS SUNDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL PRECIP
CHANCES ARRIVE FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN FOR LATE NEXT
WEEK AS A SERIES OF FRONTS PASS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
STRATOCU DECK GIVING WAY SLOWLY AS DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER AIR EXPANDS
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER...TEMPS
HAVE WARMED INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA AS OF 20Z.
FOCUS FOR THE PERIOD REMAINS ON POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
OVERNIGHT AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. MID
LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM ALREADY EXPANDING EAST
ACROSS ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON. MAINLY SUNNY SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED
TO THE NORTHWEST OF INDY METRO THROUGH 21-22Z WITH CLOUD COVERAGE
ONCE AGAIN INCREASING OVER THE AREA INTO THE EVENING. MODELS HAVE
COME IN FURTHER NORTH WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES AND ARE SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS THURSDAY AND EARLIER
THIS MORNING. RESULT WILL BE A SLOWER ARRIVAL TO THE PRECIP ACROSS
THE AREA AS MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A WELL DEFINED AREA OF
SUBSIDENCE WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WHICH WILL TAKE THE EVENING TO
BE OVERCOME.
WILL BRING IN LIKELY POPS INTO MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH MOST WIDESPREAD PRECIP EXPECTED BETWEEN 07 AND 13Z
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. PRECIP WILL FALL AS SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH RAIN LIKELY MIXING IN WITH THE SNOW
OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES. HEAVIEST SNOW ACCUMS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS
THE NORTHERN WABASH VALLEY WHICH WILL CATCH THE AXIS OF DEEPEST
MOISTURE AIDED BY A THIN DEFORMATION BAND WHICH MAY ENABLE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF HEAVIER SNOWFALL RATES. HAVE PLACED UP TO ABOUT 1.5 INCHES
FROM LAFAYETTE EAST THROUGH KOKOMO...FALLING BACK TO A HALF INCH
NEAR AND JUST SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR. SHOULD BE A WET SNOW AND
WITH TEMPS LIKELY TO REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT...SOME MELTING OF THE SNOW ONCE IT FALLS SEEMS QUITE
PLAUSIBLE. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE WILL SWEEP
INTO THE FORECAST AREA TOWARDS DAYBREAK WITH PRECIP ENDING SHORTLY
THEREAFTER.
TEMPS...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...EXPECT SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER
AT OR ABOVE FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. HAVE LEANED QUITE A BIT
CLOSER TO THE LAMP AND SREF RAW TEMPS AS OPPOSED TO MOS WHICH LOOKS
TO BE TOO COLD. ANY DROPS TO BELOW FREEZING TEMPS SHOULD NOT TAKE
PLACE UNTIL AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH THE
BOUNDARY LOCATED SOMEWHERE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA AT 12Z.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON TEMPS AND WINDS IN WAKE OF THE CLIPPER
SATURDAY...AND POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
WITH A SECONDARY CLIPPER SUNDAY MORNING.
SHARP SUBSIDENCE AND DEEP DRYING ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
IN WAKE OF THE FRONT SATURDAY MORNING. PRECIP SET TO END OVER
EASTERN COUNTIES BY MID MORNING AT THE LATEST. IN PRESENCE OF
ABUNDANT DRY AIR...SKIES WILL BECOME MAINLY SUNNY FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE DAY. STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND COLD ADVECTION IN WAKE OF THE
CLIPPER WILL HELP FEED LOW LEVEL MIXING SATURDAY WITH GUSTY WINDS OF
30 TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE. GUSTS WILL DROP OFF SATURDAY NIGHT BUT
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT AND SHOULD ENABLE SUSTAINED
OF 10-20MPH ALL NIGHT. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROTATES THROUGH THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES.
SHORTWAVE ALOFT AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY AT SURFACE WILL ROTATE THROUGH
THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING. FORCING ALOFT IS WEAKER WITH
THIS SYSTEM AS OPPOSED TO THE ONE PASSING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THAT AREA OF FORCING IS
FOCUSED MORE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF INDIANA AS OPPOSED TO THE
GREAT LAKES AND MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME WEAK INSTABILITY
PRESENT IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER FOR SUNDAY MORNING. DESPITE LIMITED
MOISTURE...THINK THE PRESENCE OF THE FORCING AND INSTABILITY WILL
PROVIDE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF MORE THAN JUST FLURRIES SUNDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN COUNTIES. HAVE INSERTED ACCUMS
OF A FEW TENTHS FOCUSED FROM LAFAYETTE TO MUNCIE WITH TRACE
AMOUNTS AS FAR SOUTH AS THE I-70 CORRIDOR. WILL BE A MUCH DRIER
SNOW WITH A COLDER AIRMASS PRESENT. ALL SNOW WILL BE EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY MIDDAY. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES CAN THEN BE EXPECTED
FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
TEMPS...COULD SEE TEMPS FALL A COUPLE DEGREES FROM 12Z LOWS SATURDAY
MORNING AS INITIAL SURGE OF COLD ADVECTION BEHIND FRONT ARRIVES.
TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND SOME FOR THE AFTERNOON BUT IN COLD ADVECTION
PATTERN AM UNDERCUTTING GUIDANCE. LOWS WILL BE REACHED SATURDAY
NIGHT BY MIDNIGHT AS QUICK SHOT OF WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPS AHEAD OF
THE SECONDARY CLIPPER. LEANED TOWARDS COOLER MAVMOS FOR SUNDAY WITH
THE RENEWAL OF COLD ADVECTION IN WAKE OF THE SECOND CLIPPER. COLDEST
NIGHT WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE LOWER 20S FOR
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS CONCUR WITH ACTIVE PATTERN. BIG DIFFERENCES MORE IN TIMING
THAN CONCEPTS. THIS IS A SITUATION THAT CALLS FOR ENSEMBLE
TACTICS. ALL BLEND PROVIDED BY CENTRAL REGION SHOULD BE JUST THE
TICKET.
MOST IMPORTANT QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER WE CAN PRODUCE ANY SNOW IN
SYSTEMS PASSING FRIDAY. RIGHT NOW...ITS JUST TOO EARLY SAY MORE
THAN A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 280300Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
UPDATED KIND FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS ONLY. WHILE KLAF HAS FALLEN TO
MVFR WITH LIGHT SNOW...THIS CURRENT BAND OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WITH
MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE OUT OF THERE VERY SHORTLY AND THUS WILL NOT
AMEND FOR IT.
CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHING THE AREA WILL BRING MVFR CEILINGS AND
SNOW TO THE NORTHERN SITES TONIGHT...WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW TO
THE SOUTH. MODELS INCLUDING THE RUC ARE RUNNING SLOWER AND THUS
PUSHED BACK THE ARRIVAL AND EXIT OF THE SNOW BY A FEW HOURS. WITH
THE BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE TO THE NORTH HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO
GROUP OF IFR VISIBILITIES AT KLAF. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE MOVING
OUT OF THE AREA STARTING AROUND 12Z IN THE WEST AND WORKING ITS WAY
EAST. SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM SHOULD ALLOW MVFR
CLOUDS TO SCATTER OUT BY LATE MORNING. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL BRING WIND GUSTS WITH IT...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF
10-20 KTS AND GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE
DAY.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....JK
AVIATION...CP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
557 PM EST FRI JAN 27 2012
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO
CENTRAL INDIANA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR LIGHT SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION. COLDER AIR WILL
SPREAD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND WITH THE
POSSIBILITY FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES AS A
SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH THE AREAS SUNDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL PRECIP
CHANCES ARRIVE FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN FOR LATE NEXT
WEEK AS A SERIES OF FRONTS PASS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
STRATOCU DECK GIVING WAY SLOWLY AS DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER AIR EXPANDS
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER...TEMPS
HAVE WARMED INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA AS OF 20Z.
FOCUS FOR THE PERIOD REMAINS ON POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
OVERNIGHT AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. MID
LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM ALREADY EXPANDING EAST
ACROSS ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON. MAINLY SUNNY SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED
TO THE NORTHWEST OF INDY METRO THROUGH 21-22Z WITH CLOUD COVERAGE
ONCE AGAIN INCREASING OVER THE AREA INTO THE EVENING. MODELS HAVE
COME IN FURTHER NORTH WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES AND ARE SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS THURSDAY AND EARLIER
THIS MORNING. RESULT WILL BE A SLOWER ARRIVAL TO THE PRECIP ACROSS
THE AREA AS MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A WELL DEFINED AREA OF
SUBSIDENCE WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WHICH WILL TAKE THE EVENING TO
BE OVERCOME.
WILL BRING IN LIKELY POPS INTO MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH MOST WIDESPREAD PRECIP EXPECTED BETWEEN 07 AND 13Z
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. PRECIP WILL FALL AS SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH RAIN LIKELY MIXING IN WITH THE SNOW
OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES. HEAVIEST SNOW ACCUMS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS
THE NORTHERN WABASH VALLEY WHICH WILL CATCH THE AXIS OF DEEPEST
MOISTURE AIDED BY A THIN DEFORMATION BAND WHICH MAY ENABLE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF HEAVIER SNOWFALL RATES. HAVE PLACED UP TO ABOUT 1.5 INCHES
FROM LAFAYETTE EAST THROUGH KOKOMO...FALLING BACK TO A HALF INCH
NEAR AND JUST SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR. SHOULD BE A WET SNOW AND
WITH TEMPS LIKELY TO REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT...SOME MELTING OF THE SNOW ONCE IT FALLS SEEMS QUITE
PLAUSIBLE. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE WILL SWEEP
INTO THE FORECAST AREA TOWARDS DAYBREAK WITH PRECIP ENDING SHORTLY
THEREAFTER.
TEMPS...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...EXPECT SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER
AT OR ABOVE FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. HAVE LEANED QUITE A BIT
CLOSER TO THE LAMP AND SREF RAW TEMPS AS OPPOSED TO MOS WHICH LOOKS
TO BE TOO COLD. ANY DROPS TO BELOW FREEZING TEMPS SHOULD NOT TAKE
PLACE UNTIL AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH THE
BOUNDARY LOCATED SOMEWHERE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA AT 12Z.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON TEMPS AND WINDS IN WAKE OF THE CLIPPER
SATURDAY...AND POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
WITH A SECONDARY CLIPPER SUNDAY MORNING.
SHARP SUBSIDENCE AND DEEP DRYING ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
IN WAKE OF THE FRONT SATURDAY MORNING. PRECIP SET TO END OVER
EASTERN COUNTIES BY MID MORNING AT THE LATEST. IN PRESENCE OF
ABUNDANT DRY AIR...SKIES WILL BECOME MAINLY SUNNY FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE DAY. STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND COLD ADVECTION IN WAKE OF THE
CLIPPER WILL HELP FEED LOW LEVEL MIXING SATURDAY WITH GUSTY WINDS OF
30 TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE. GUSTS WILL DROP OFF SATURDAY NIGHT BUT
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT AND SHOULD ENABLE SUSTAINED
OF 10-20MPH ALL NIGHT. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROTATES THROUGH THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES.
SHORTWAVE ALOFT AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY AT SURFACE WILL ROTATE THROUGH
THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING. FORCING ALOFT IS WEAKER WITH
THIS SYSTEM AS OPPOSED TO THE ONE PASSING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THAT AREA OF FORCING IS
FOCUSED MORE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF INDIANA AS OPPOSED TO THE
GREAT LAKES AND MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME WEAK INSTABILITY
PRESENT IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER FOR SUNDAY MORNING. DESPITE LIMITED
MOISTURE...THINK THE PRESENCE OF THE FORCING AND INSTABILITY WILL
PROVIDE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF MORE THAN JUST FLURRIES SUNDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN COUNTIES. HAVE INSERTED ACCUMS
OF A FEW TENTHS FOCUSED FROM LAFAYETTE TO MUNCIE WITH TRACE
AMOUNTS AS FAR SOUTH AS THE I-70 CORRIDOR. WILL BE A MUCH DRIER
SNOW WITH A COLDER AIRMASS PRESENT. ALL SNOW WILL BE EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY MIDDAY. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES CAN THEN BE EXPECTED
FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
TEMPS...COULD SEE TEMPS FALL A COUPLE DEGREES FROM 12Z LOWS SATURDAY
MORNING AS INITIAL SURGE OF COLD ADVECTION BEHIND FRONT ARRIVES.
TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND SOME FOR THE AFTERNOON BUT IN COLD ADVECTION
PATTERN AM UNDERCUTTING GUIDANCE. LOWS WILL BE REACHED SATURDAY
NIGHT BY MIDNIGHT AS QUICK SHOT OF WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPS AHEAD OF
THE SECONDARY CLIPPER. LEANED TOWARDS COOLER MAVMOS FOR SUNDAY WITH
THE RENEWAL OF COLD ADVECTION IN WAKE OF THE SECOND CLIPPER. COLDEST
NIGHT WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE LOWER 20S FOR
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS CONCUR WITH ACTIVE PATTERN. BIG DIFFERENCES MORE IN TIMING
THAN CONCEPTS. THIS IS A SITUATION THAT CALLS FOR ENSEMBLE
TACTICS. ALL BLEND PROVIDED BY CENTRAL REGION SHOULD BE JUST THE
TICKET.
MOST IMPORTANT QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER WE CAN PRODUCE ANY SNOW IN
SYSTEMS PASSING FRIDAY. RIGHT NOW...ITS JUST TOO EARLY SAY MORE
THAN A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 280000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHING THE AREA WILL BRING MVFR CEILINGS AND
SNOW TO THE NORTHERN SITES TONIGHT...WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW TO
THE SOUTH. MODELS INCLUDING THE RUC ARE RUNNING SLOWER AND THUS
PUSHED BACK THE ARRIVAL AND EXIT OF THE SNOW BY A FEW HOURS. WITH
THE BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE TO THE NORTH HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO
GROUP OF IFR VISIBILITIES AT KLAF. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE MOVING
OUT OF THE AREA STARTING AROUND 12Z IN THE WEST AND WORKING ITS WAY
EAST. SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM SHOULD ALLOW MVFR
CLOUDS TO SCATTER OUT BY LATE MORNING. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL BRING WIND GUSTS WITH IT...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF
10-20 KTS AND GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE
DAY.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....JK
AVIATION...CP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
1258 PM EST THU JAN 26 2012
.AVIATION...
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT
8-12 HOURS AS LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE OHIO VALLEY LIFTS NE AND AN
UPPER LEVEL TROF DIGS EASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.
TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY ARE AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SO
EXPECTED P-TYPE THROUGH THIS PD IS RAIN. KSBN WILL REMAIN ON THE
EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD FOR MOST OF THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH
CIGS BOUNCING FROM IFR TO LIFR. COOLER AIR WILL SWEEP INTO THE
REGION TONIGHT...WITH P-TYPE TRANSITIONING TO SNOW. PRECIP MOVES
OUT SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AT KSBN AND TOWARDS DAYBREAK AT KFWA AS
THE TROF EXITS EAST OUT OF THE REGION. CIGS NOT EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE TO MVFR UNTIL EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINS ABUNDANT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
UPDATE.../ISSUED ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS
IN/
HAVE DECIDED TO EXTEND AND EXPAND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR A
FEW HOURS THROUGH MIDDAY AS SOME FREEZING AND/OR FROZEN PRECIP
CONTINUES DESPITE BORDERLINE TEMPERATURES AT MANY SITES. STILL
EXPECT THAT TEMPS WILL WARM ENOUGH IN THE AFTERNOON FOR A
TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN...AND RUC SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA BEAR THIS OUT.
SHORT TERM...
DIFFICULT FCST AGAIN WITH SFC TEMPS ACRS ERN FA LOCKED JUST BLO
FZG IN STRONGLY BACKED SFC FLOW. INCRSG PRES FALLS ACRS XTRM SRN
IN/NRN KY THIS AM AS NRN/SRN STREAM CONT TO PHASE...ALA ECMWF OF
YDAY. IN NEAR TERM FAVORING RUC AND RAPID REFRESH WITH APPARENT
GOOD HANDLE WRT PTYPE/PLACEMENT. WHITTLED AWAY AT ADVISORY WITH
ALL BUT MAUMEE VALLEY NOW ABOVE FZG. BACKED FLOW INTO DRAINAGE
BASIN STILL SUPPORTIVE OF 30-32F SFC TEMPS PER MESONET WITH
COLDEST RMNG IN HEART OF BASIN. HOWEVER WITH IMMEDIATE UPSTREAM
TW MAX OF AROUND 5C INVOF KMIE CONTS NWD ADVANCE...IN RESPONSE TO
INCRSG NERN EXTENSION/DEEPENING OF OH VLY FNTL WAVE...PER 6
MB/3HR COUPLET. CONT W/SHARP GRADIENT WRT POPS WITH HIGHEST IN
STRONG MIDLYR DEFORMATION ZONE AMID I290-295K ISENT LYR UPGLIDE
ACRS SRN/SERN FA...THOUGH A NOD TO HRRR WITH AT LEAST SPRINKLES
WORKING FARTHER NORTH WITH ONLY FAR NWRN CWA ASSUREDLY DRY WITH
NMRS MID MSVLY SHORTWAVES TAKING SHARP EWD PROGRESSION...OVERCOME
BY STRONG DOWNSTREAM CONFLUENCY. OUTSIDE OF NEAR TERM FAVOR NON
NCEP SOLUTIONS...FIRST WITH DEEPER AND MORE LEFT TRACK SFC LOW
INTO CNTL PA OVERNIGHT...FURTHER WWD EXTENSION OF COLD CONVEYOR
BELT AND HOLDING ONTO SLIGHTLY HIR POPS TONIGHT EAST WITH RASN MIX
TO SN. AGAIN HAVE SQUELCHED DIURNAL PEAKS WITH THICK CLOUDS/PRECIP
AND WARM SECTOR NWD ADVANCE FERVENTLY QUELLED. ALSO FAVOR LIES
TOWARD STRONGER NON-NCEP SIGNALS WRT FRIDAY NIGHT CLIPPER SPAWNED
BY ENERGY NOW INTO PAC NW. 70-80KT MIDLVL SHORTWAVE INTO SRN
GRTLKS TO PROVIDE AMPLE LIFT FOR QUICK/LIGHT SN EVENT AND HAVE
RAMPED POPS SIGNIFICANTLY IN DEFERENCE TO SOLIDARITY IN A
ECMWF/GEM/UKMET BLEND.
LONG TERM... / SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY /
A PIECE OF THE ALASKA POLAR VORTEX WILL BREAK OFF SEWD TO NEAR JAMES
BAY BY THIS WEEKEND...WITH A DIGGING UPPER JET CORE EMERGING ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THIS FEATURE ALLOWING FOR AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH TO
DIG INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. SEVERAL SMALLER SCALE WAVES WILL PIVOT
EWD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WITHIN THIS TROUGH. CVA AND LOW
LVL FGEN WITH THE FIRST SHORTWAVE ORIGINATING FROM THE NE PAC SHOULD
SUPPORT A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE FA FRIDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLY
LINGERING INTO SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. TEMPS ON
SATURDAY WILL TREND COOLER WHEN COMPARED WITH FRIDAY GIVEN
FROPA...STILL REMAINING AOA NORMAL. A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE AND
ATTENDANT POLAR FRONT ARE STILL PROGGED TO TRANSLATE THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH 850 HPA TEMPS FALLING TO BTW M13-M16
ON SUNDAY. THE THERMAL PROFILE...WITH 700 HPA DELTA T/S
25-30C...WILL SUPPORT A RATHER HEALTHY LAKE RESPONSE.
HOWEVER...GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW UNFAVORABLE TRAJECTORIES FOR
MODERATE LES GIVEN 280-290 DEG 92-8H FETCH. STILL...SOME ADDED
LIFT/MOISTURE FROM THE MID LVL IMPULSE AND RATHER SIG LATENT HEAT
FLUX OVER THE LAKE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
MAINLY ALONG/NORTH OF THE TOLL ROAD IN INDIANA/SW LOWER MI. AT THIS
POINT HAVE ACCUMS NEAR 1 INCH IN SW LOWER MI...LESS ELSEWHERE.
OTHERWISE...IT WILL ACTUALLY FEEL LIKE WINTER SUNDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY
FCST TO REACH THE MID/UPPER 20S (STILL ONLY 4-7 DEG BLO NORMAL).
A MODERATING TREND IS STILL IN THE CARDS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS WAA
REGIME SETS UP IN RESPONSE TO EXITING UPPER TROUGH AND BACKING FLOW
IN ADVANCE OF A PACIFIC SHORTWAVE...WHICH DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE DROP INTO THE PLAINS BY TUESDAY. ASSOCIATED HEIGHT FALLS
WILL SUPPORT LOW LVL THETA-E RISES INTO THE OH VALLEY/GREAT LAKES
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THIS OPTED TO RETAINED CHC POPS
FOR RAIN DURING THIS TIME AS 00Z GUIDANCE HAS REMAINED RELATIVELY
CONSISTENT WRT TIMING. FA SHOULD DRY OUT BY WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPS
REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL BEHIND CDFNT AS COLD AIR BECOMES BOTTLED UP
ACROSS NORTHERN CANADA IN PROGRESSIVE PACIFIC WAVE TRAIN PATTERN.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR INZ008-
009-016>018.
MI...NONE.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR OHZ001-
002-004-005-015-016.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...JC
UPDATE...NIELD
AVIATION...NG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
922 AM EST THU JAN 26 2012
.UPDATE...
HAVE DECIDED TO EXTEND AND EXPAND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR A
FEW HOURS THROUGH MIDDAY AS SOME FREEZING AND/OR FROZEN PRECIP
CONTINUES DESPITE BORDERLINE TEMPERATURES AT MANY SITES. STILL
EXPECT THAT TEMPS WILL WARM ENOUGH IN THE AFTERNOON FOR A
TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN...AND RUC SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA BEAR THIS OUT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 650 AM EST THU JAN 26 2012/
AVIATION...
12 UTC TAFS. DIFFICULT FCST WRT SFC TEMPS HOVERING JUST AOB FZG
INVOF KFWA THIS AM. THOUGH LAST VESTIGES OF FZG TEMPS ANTICIPATED AT
KFWA AS OH VLY SYSTEM LIFTS GRDLY NEWD. SUPPORT FOR PERSISTENCE OF
FZRA IN LIFR MET CONDS AT KFWA NEXT TWO HOURS PER RAPID REFRESH
PTYPE/2M TEMPS. CONT TO ALLOW FOR CHANGEOVER TO ALL RAIN NLT 14 UTC
AS OH VLY SFC LOW BEGINS TO DOMINATE AS UPSTREAM NRN/SRN STREAMS
PHASE AND EXHIBITS INCRSG INFLUECE TO WARM/DEEPEN MAX LYR TW BEGINS
TO OVERWHELM POCKETS OF SUBFZG SFC TEMPS. IFR/FUEL ALT PER MOIST
BLYR TO LKLY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH IF NOT ALL RMNDR OF NRN IN FOR
CRNT FCST CYCLE WITH POST FNTL CHANGEOVER NOTED AT KFWA CLOSER TO
BETTER MSTR PROFILE THIS EVE.
SHORT TERM...
DIFFICULT FCST AGAIN WITH SFC TEMPS ACRS ERN FA LOCKED JUST BLO
FZG IN STRONGLY BACKED SFC FLOW. INCRSG PRES FALLS ACRS XTRM SRN
IN/NRN KY THIS AM AS NRN/SRN STREAM CONT TO PHASE...ALA ECMWF OF
YDAY. IN NEAR TERM FAVORING RUC AND RAPID REFRESH WITH APPARENT
GOOD HANDLE WRT PTYPE/PLACEMENT. WHITTLED AWAY AT ADVISORY WITH
ALL BUT MAUMEE VALLEY NOW ABOVE FZG. BACKED FLOW INTO DRAINAGE
BASIN STILL SUPPORTIVE OF 30-32F SFC TEMPS PER MESONET WITH
COLDEST RMNG IN HEART OF BASIN. HOWEVER WITH IMMEDIATE UPSTREAM
TW MAX OF AROUND 5C INVOF KMIE CONTS NWD ADVANCE...IN RESPONSE TO
INCRSG NERN EXTENSION/DEEPENING OF OH VLY FNTL WAVE...PER 6
MB/3HR COUPLET. CONT W/SHARP GRADIENT WRT POPS WITH HIGHEST IN
STRONG MIDLYR DEFORMATION ZONE AMID I290-295K ISENT LYR UPGLIDE
ACRS SRN/SERN FA...THOUGH A NOD TO HRRR WITH AT LEAST SPRINKLES
WORKING FARTHER NORTH WITH ONLY FAR NWRN CWA ASSUREDLY DRY WITH
NMRS MID MSVLY SHORTWAVES TAKING SHARP EWD PROGRESSION...OVERCOME
BY STRONG DOWNSTREAM CONFLUENCY. OUTSIDE OF NEAR TERM FAVOR NON
NCEP SOLUTIONS...FIRST WITH DEEPER AND MORE LEFT TRACK SFC LOW
INTO CNTL PA OVERNIGHT...FURTHER WWD EXTENSION OF COLD CONVEYOR
BELT AND HOLDING ONTO SLIGHTLY HIR POPS TONIGHT EAST WITH RASN MIX
TO SN. AGAIN HAVE SQUELCHED DIURNAL PEAKS WITH THICK CLOUDS/PRECIP
AND WARM SECTOR NWD ADVANCE FERVENTLY QUELLED. ALSO FAVOR LIES
TOWARD STRONGER NON-NCEP SIGNALS WRT FRIDAY NIGHT CLIPPER SPAWNED
BY ENERGY NOW INTO PAC NW. 70-80KT MIDLVL SHORTWAVE INTO SRN
GRTLKS TO PROVIDE AMPLE LIFT FOR QUICK/LIGHT SN EVENT AND HAVE
RAMPED POPS SIGNIFICANTLY IN DEFERENCE TO SOLIDARITY IN A
ECMWF/GEM/UKMET BLEND.
LONG TERM... / SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY /
A PIECE OF THE ALASKA POLAR VORTEX WILL BREAK OFF SEWD TO NEAR JAMES
BAY BY THIS WEEKEND...WITH A DIGGING UPPER JET CORE EMERGING ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THIS FEATURE ALLOWING FOR AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH TO
DIG INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. SEVERAL SMALLER SCALE WAVES WILL PIVOT
EWD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WITHIN THIS TROUGH. CVA AND LOW
LVL FGEN WITH THE FIRST SHORTWAVE ORIGINATING FROM THE NE PAC SHOULD
SUPPORT A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE FA FRIDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLY
LINGERING INTO SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. TEMPS ON
SATURDAY WILL TREND COOLER WHEN COMPARED WITH FRIDAY GIVEN
FROPA...STILL REMAINING AOA NORMAL. A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE AND
ATTENDANT POLAR FRONT ARE STILL PROGGED TO TRANSLATE THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH 850 HPA TEMPS FALLING TO BTW M13-M16
ON SUNDAY. THE THERMAL PROFILE...WITH 700 HPA DELTA T/S
25-30C...WILL SUPPORT A RATHER HEALTHY LAKE RESPONSE.
HOWEVER...GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW UNFAVORABLE TRAJECTORIES FOR
MODERATE LES GIVEN 280-290 DEG 92-8H FETCH. STILL...SOME ADDED
LIFT/MOISTURE FROM THE MID LVL IMPULSE AND RATHER SIG LATENT HEAT
FLUX OVER THE LAKE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
MAINLY ALONG/NORTH OF THE TOLL ROAD IN INDIANA/SW LOWER MI. AT THIS
POINT HAVE ACCUMS NEAR 1 INCH IN SW LOWER MI...LESS ELSEWHERE.
OTHERWISE...IT WILL ACTUALLY FEEL LIKE WINTER SUNDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY
FCST TO REACH THE MID/UPPER 20S (STILL ONLY 4-7 DEG BLO NORMAL).
A MODERATING TREND IS STILL IN THE CARDS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS WAA
REGIME SETS UP IN RESPONSE TO EXITING UPPER TROUGH AND BACKING FLOW
IN ADVANCE OF A PACIFIC SHORTWAVE...WHICH DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE DROP INTO THE PLAINS BY TUESDAY. ASSOCIATED HEIGHT FALLS
WILL SUPPORT LOW LVL THETA-E RISES INTO THE OH VALLEY/GREAT LAKES
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THIS OPTED TO RETAINED CHC POPS
FOR RAIN DURING THIS TIME AS 00Z GUIDANCE HAS REMAINED RELATIVELY
CONSISTENT WRT TIMING. FA SHOULD DRY OUT BY WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPS
REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL BEHIND CDFNT AS COLD AIR BECOMES BOTTLED UP
ACROSS NORTHERN CANADA IN PROGRESSIVE PACIFIC WAVE TRAIN PATTERN.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
INZ008- 009-016>018.
MI...NONE.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR OHZ001-
002-004-005-015-016.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...JC
UPDATE...NIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
650 AM EST THU JAN 26 2012
.AVIATION...
12 UTC TAFS. DIFFICULT FCST WRT SFC TEMPS HOVERING JUST AOB FZG
INVOF KFWA THIS AM. THOUGH LAST VESTIGES OF FZG TEMPS ANTICIPATED AT
KFWA AS OH VLY SYSTEM LIFTS GRDLY NEWD. SUPPORT FOR PERSISTENCE OF
FZRA IN LIFR MET CONDS AT KFWA NEXT TWO HOURS PER RAPID REFRESH
PTYPE/2M TEMPS. CONT TO ALLOW FOR CHANGEOVER TO ALL RAIN NLT 14 UTC
AS OH VLY SFC LOW BEGINS TO DOMINATE AS UPSTREAM NRN/SRN STREAMS
PHASE AND EXHIBITS INCRSG INFLUECE TO WARM/DEEPEN MAX LYR TW BEGINS
TO OVERWHELM POCKETS OF SUBFZG SFC TEMPS. IFR/FUEL ALT PER MOIST
BLYR TO LKLY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH IF NOT ALL RMNDR OF NRN IN FOR
CRNT FCST CYCLE WITH POST FNTL CHANGEOVER NOTED AT KFWA CLOSER TO
BETTER MSTR PROFILE THIS EVE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
DIFFICULT FCST AGAIN WITH SFC TEMPS ACRS ERN FA LOCKED JUST BLO
FZG IN STRONGLY BACKED SFC FLOW. INCRSG PRES FALLS ACRS XTRM SRN
IN/NRN KY THIS AM AS NRN/SRN STREAM CONT TO PHASE...ALA ECMWF OF
YDAY. IN NEAR TERM FAVORING RUC AND RAPID REFRESH WITH APPARENT
GOOD HANDLE WRT PTYPE/PLACEMENT. WHITTLED AWAY AT ADVISORY WITH
ALL BUT MAUMEE VALLEY NOW ABOVE FZG. BACKED FLOW INTO DRAINAGE
BASIN STILL SUPPORTIVE OF 30-32F SFC TEMPS PER MESONET WITH
COLDEST RMNG IN HEART OF BASIN. HOWEVER WITH IMMEDIATE UPSTREAM
TW MAX OF AROUND 5C INVOF KMIE CONTS NWD ADVANCE...IN RESPONSE TO
INCRSG NERN EXTENSION/DEEPENING OF OH VLY FNTL WAVE...PER 6
MB/3HR COUPLET. CONT W/SHARP GRADIENT WRT POPS WITH HIGHEST IN
STRONG MIDLYR DEFORMATION ZONE AMID I290-295K ISENT LYR UPGLIDE
ACRS SRN/SERN FA...THOUGH A NOD TO HRRR WITH AT LEAST SPRINKLES
WORKING FARTHER NORTH WITH ONLY FAR NWRN CWA ASSUREDLY DRY WITH
NMRS MID MSVLY SHORTWAVES TAKING SHARP EWD PROGRESSION...OVERCOME
BY STRONG DOWNSTREAM CONFLUENCY. OUTSIDE OF NEAR TERM FAVOR NON
NCEP SOLUTIONS...FIRST WITH DEEPER AND MORE LEFT TRACK SFC LOW
INTO CNTL PA OVERNIGHT...FURTHER WWD EXTENSION OF COLD CONVEYOR
BELT AND HOLDING ONTO SLIGHTLY HIR POPS TONIGHT EAST WITH RASN MIX
TO SN. AGAIN HAVE SQUELCHED DIURNAL PEAKS WITH THICK CLOUDS/PRECIP
AND WARM SECTOR NWD ADVANCE FERVENTLY QUELLED. ALSO FAVOR LIES
TOWARD STRONGER NON-NCEP SIGNALS WRT FRIDAY NIGHT CLIPPER SPAWNED
BY ENERGY NOW INTO PAC NW. 70-80KT MIDLVL SHORTWAVE INTO SRN
GRTLKS TO PROVIDE AMPLE LIFT FOR QUICK/LIGHT SN EVENT AND HAVE
RAMPED POPS SIGNIFICANTLY IN DEFERENCE TO SOLIDARITY IN A
ECMWF/GEM/UKMET BLEND.
&&
.LONG TERM... / SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY /
A PIECE OF THE ALASKA POLAR VORTEX WILL BREAK OFF SEWD TO NEAR JAMES
BAY BY THIS WEEKEND...WITH A DIGGING UPPER JET CORE EMERGING ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THIS FEATURE ALLOWING FOR AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH TO
DIG INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. SEVERAL SMALLER SCALE WAVES WILL PIVOT
EWD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WITHIN THIS TROUGH. CVA AND LOW
LVL FGEN WITH THE FIRST SHORTWAVE ORIGINATING FROM THE NE PAC SHOULD
SUPPORT A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE FA FRIDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLY
LINGERING INTO SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. TEMPS ON
SATURDAY WILL TREND COOLER WHEN COMPARED WITH FRIDAY GIVEN
FROPA...STILL REMAINING AOA NORMAL. A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE AND
ATTENDANT POLAR FRONT ARE STILL PROGGED TO TRANSLATE THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH 850 HPA TEMPS FALLING TO BTW M13-M16
ON SUNDAY. THE THERMAL PROFILE...WITH 700 HPA DELTA T/S
25-30C...WILL SUPPORT A RATHER HEALTHY LAKE RESPONSE.
HOWEVER...GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW UNFAVORABLE TRAJECTORIES FOR
MODERATE LES GIVEN 280-290 DEG 92-8H FETCH. STILL...SOME ADDED
LIFT/MOISTURE FROM THE MID LVL IMPULSE AND RATHER SIG LATENT HEAT
FLUX OVER THE LAKE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
MAINLY ALONG/NORTH OF THE TOLL ROAD IN INDIANA/SW LOWER MI. AT THIS
POINT HAVE ACCUMS NEAR 1 INCH IN SW LOWER MI...LESS ELSEWHERE.
OTHERWISE...IT WILL ACTUALLY FEEL LIKE WINTER SUNDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY
FCST TO REACH THE MID/UPPER 20S (STILL ONLY 4-7 DEG BLO NORMAL).
A MODERATING TREND IS STILL IN THE CARDS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS WAA
REGIME SETS UP IN RESPONSE TO EXITING UPPER TROUGH AND BACKING FLOW
IN ADVANCE OF A PACIFIC SHORTWAVE...WHICH DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE DROP INTO THE PLAINS BY TUESDAY. ASSOCIATED HEIGHT FALLS
WILL SUPPORT LOW LVL THETA-E RISES INTO THE OH VALLEY/GREAT LAKES
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THIS OPTED TO RETAINED CHC POPS
FOR RAIN DURING THIS TIME AS 00Z GUIDANCE HAS REMAINED RELATIVELY
CONSISTENT WRT TIMING. FA SHOULD DRY OUT BY WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPS
REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL BEHIND CDFNT AS COLD AIR BECOMES BOTTLED UP
ACROSS NORTHERN CANADA IN PROGRESSIVE PACIFIC WAVE TRAIN PATTERN.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR INZ018.
MI...NONE.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ004-
005-015-016.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...MURPHY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
450 AM EST THU JAN 26 2012
.SHORT TERM...
DIFFICULT FCST AGAIN WITH SFC TEMPS ACRS ERN FA LOCKED JUST BLO
FZG IN STRONGLY BACKED SFC FLOW. INCRSG PRES FALLS ACRS XTRM SRN
IN/NRN KY THIS AM AS NRN/SRN STREAM CONT TO PHASE...ALA ECMWF OF
YDAY. IN NEAR TERM FAVORING RUC AND RAPID REFRESH WITH APPARENT
GOOD HANDLE WRT PTYPE/PLACEMENT. WHITTLED AWAY AT ADVISORY WITH
ALL BUT MAUMEE VALLEY NOW ABOVE FZG. BACKED FLOW INTO DRAINAGE
BASIN STILL SUPPORTIVE OF 30-32F SFC TEMPS PER MESONET WITH
COLDEST RMNG IN HEART OF BASIN. HOWEVER WITH IMMEDIATE UPSTREAM
TW MAX OF AROUND 5C INVOF KMIE CONTS NWD ADVANCE...IN RESPONSE TO
INCRSG NERN EXTENSION/DEEPENING OF OH VLY FNTL WAVE...PER 6
MB/3HR COUPLET. CONT W/SHARP GRADIENT WRT POPS WITH HIGHEST IN
STRONG MIDLYR DEFORMATION ZONE AMID I290-295K ISENT LYR UPGLIDE
ACRS SRN/SERN FA...THOUGH A NOD TO HRRR WITH AT LEAST SPRINKLES
WORKING FARTHER NORTH WITH ONLY FAR NWRN CWA ASSUREDLY DRY WITH
NMRS MID MSVLY SHORTWAVES TAKING SHARP EWD PROGRESSION...OVERCOME
BY STRONG DOWNSTREAM CONFLUENCY. OUTSIDE OF NEAR TERM FAVOR NON
NCEP SOLUTIONS...FIRST WITH DEEPER AND MORE LEFT TRACK SFC LOW
INTO CNTL PA OVERNIGHT...FURTHER WWD EXTENSION OF COLD CONVEYOR
BELT AND HOLDING ONTO SLIGHTLY HIR POPS TONIGHT EAST WITH RASN MIX
TO SN. AGAIN HAVE SQUELCHED DIURNAL PEAKS WITH THICK CLOUDS/PRECIP
AND WARM SECTOR NWD ADVANCE FERVENTLY QUELLED. ALSO FAVOR LIES
TOWARD STRONGER NON-NCEP SIGNALS WRT FRIDAY NIGHT CLIPPER SPAWNED
BY ENERGY NOW INTO PAC NW. 70-80KT MIDLVL SHORTWAVE INTO SRN
GRTLKS TO PROVIDE AMPLE LIFT FOR QUICK/LIGHT SN EVENT AND HAVE
RAMPED POPS SIGNIFICANTLY IN DEFERENCE TO SOLIDARITY IN A
ECMWF/GEM/UKMET BLEND.
&&
.LONG TERM... / SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY /
A PIECE OF THE ALASKA POLAR VORTEX WILL BREAK OFF SEWD TO NEAR JAMES
BAY BY THIS WEEKEND...WITH A DIGGING UPPER JET CORE EMERGING ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THIS FEATURE ALLOWING FOR AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH TO
DIG INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. SEVERAL SMALLER SCALE WAVES WILL PIVOT
EWD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WITHIN THIS TROUGH. CVA AND LOW
LVL FGEN WITH THE FIRST SHORTWAVE ORIGINATING FROM THE NE PAC SHOULD
SUPPORT A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE FA FRIDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLY
LINGERING INTO SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. TEMPS ON
SATURDAY WILL TREND COOLER WHEN COMPARED WITH FRIDAY GIVEN
FROPA...STILL REMAINING AOA NORMAL. A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE AND
ATTENDANT POLAR FRONT ARE STILL PROGGED TO TRANSLATE THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH 850 HPA TEMPS FALLING TO BTW M13-M16
ON SUNDAY. THE THERMAL PROFILE...WITH 700 HPA DELTA T/S
25-30C...WILL SUPPORT A RATHER HEALTHY LAKE RESPONSE.
HOWEVER...GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW UNFAVORABLE TRAJECTORIES FOR
MODERATE LES GIVEN 280-290 DEG 92-8H FETCH. STILL...SOME ADDED
LIFT/MOISTURE FROM THE MID LVL IMPULSE AND RATHER SIG LATENT HEAT
FLUX OVER THE LAKE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
MAINLY ALONG/NORTH OF THE TOLL ROAD IN INDIANA/SW LOWER MI. AT THIS
POINT HAVE ACCUMS NEAR 1 INCH IN SW LOWER MI...LESS ELSEWHERE.
OTHERWISE...IT WILL ACTUALLY FEEL LIKE WINTER SUNDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY
FCST TO REACH THE MID/UPPER 20S (STILL ONLY 4-7 DEG BLO NORMAL).
A MODERATING TREND IS STILL IN THE CARDS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS WAA
REGIME SETS UP IN RESPONSE TO EXITING UPPER TROUGH AND BACKING FLOW
IN ADVANCE OF A PACIFIC SHORTWAVE...WHICH DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE DROP INTO THE PLAINS BY TUESDAY. ASSOCIATED HEIGHT FALLS
WILL SUPPORT LOW LVL THETA-E RISES INTO THE OH VALLEY/GREAT LAKES
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THIS OPTED TO RETAINED CHC POPS
FOR RAIN DURING THIS TIME AS 00Z GUIDANCE HAS REMAINED RELATIVELY
CONSISTENT WRT TIMING. FA SHOULD DRY OUT BY WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPS
REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL BEHIND CDFNT AS COLD AIR BECOMES BOTTLED UP
ACROSS NORTHERN CANADA IN PROGRESSIVE PACIFIC WAVE TRAIN PATTERN.
&&
.AVIATION...
06 UTC TAFS. DIFFICULT FCST WRT SFC TEMPS HOVERING JUST AOB FZG
INVOF KFWA THIS AM. INCRSG SFC PRES FALLS CENTERED ACRS FAR SWRN IN
SHOULD ALLOW FOR BACKED/COLD SFC FLOW TO CONT A BIT LONGER ACRS NRN
IN. ADDNLY MAJORITY OF MESONET SFC TEMPS IN 28-32F RANGE ATTM
SUGGESTS COLD SFC. FURTHER SUPPORT FOR PERSISTENCE OF FZRA AT KFWA
GARNERED FM RAPID REFRESH PTYPE/2M TEMPS. WITH A GRDL NWD TREND OF
UPSTREAM DEFORMATION AXIS PRECIP INTENSITY COULD PICK UP AS WELL
NEXT FEW HOURS FOR ADDNL ICE ACCRETION. ALLOW FOR CHANGEOVER TO ALL
RAIN AT 14 UTC AS OH VLY SFC LOW BEGINS TO DOMINATE AS UPSTREAM
NRN/SRN STREAMS PHASE AND WARMING/DEEPENING MAX LYR TW BEGINS TO
OVERWHELM SUBFZG SFC TEMPS. GRTR FCST DIFFICULTY AT KSBN WITH
INITIAL MVFR VSBYS AND INTERMITTENT STRATUS DECK. LWR CIGS /IFR MET
CONDS/ SHOULD CONGEAL AT KSBN LATER THIS AM WITH SAME NRN ADVANCE OF
SUBSEQUENT UPSTREAM WAVES INTO MID MS VLY THEN EWD INTO DOWNSTREAM
CONFLUENCY.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR INZ018.
MI...NONE.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ004-
005-015-016.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...MURPHY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1049 AM MST THU JAN 26 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
LATEST SATELLITE AND RUC UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOW WESTERLY FLOW
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND A CLOSED LOW OVER TEXAS. SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS AS WELL AS STRONG WINDS AND A BRIEF WARM UP WERE
OBSERVED AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONT MOVED THROUGH
THE HIGH PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SATURDAY)...
250 AM MST THU JAN 26 2012
CONCERNS FOR THIS PERIOD WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES/PHASE THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AND WINDS FRIDAY.
TODAY...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS DRY AIR AND THE RIGHT
EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET WILL BE OVER THE AREA BEHIND
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AS IT MOVES EAST. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE
THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON TURNING THE WINDS TO THE SOUTH BEHIND
IT.
TONIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
DURING THE NIGHT ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...EXTENDING SOUTHEAST TOWARD OBERLIN AND HILL CITY. MODELS
HAVE THE MOISTURE MOVING IN SOONER THAN AT THIS TIME YESTERDAY.
HOWEVER THERE IS A WARM DRY LAYER BETWEEN THE MOISTURE AND THE
SURFACE. WITH THE LIFT EXTENDING WELL INTO THE DEEP MOISTURE ABOVE
THIS LAYER...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION FROM
OCCURRING. CURRENTLY THINKING PRECIPITATION WILL START OFF AS RAIN
DURING THE EVENING DUE TO THE WARM NOSE IN PLACE. OVERNIGHT THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW AS COOLER AIR MOVES
IN.
FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE MORNING
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. AS THE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NEARS
THE AREA...700MB TO 300MB FRONTOGENESIS BEGINS TO MOVE OVER EAST
CENTRAL COLORADO AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS. WITH THE ENVIRONMENT
BECOMING MORE MOIST AS COOLER AIR MOVES IN...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION FROM OCCURRING OVER THOSE AREAS DURING THE
MORNING. AM THINKING THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW AS COOLER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE IN...WITH A CHANGE TO ALL SNOW BY
MID MORNING. THERE IS THE REMOTE CHANCE OF SOME FREEZING
RAIN/DRIZZLE OCCURRING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...BUT PER
CROSS SECTION ANALYSIS AND SREF PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES AM
THINKING THE COOLER AIR SHOULD MOVE THROUGH QUICK ENOUGH FOR ANY
FREEZING PRECIPITATION THREAT TO BE NEGLIGIBLE. DID INCLUDE A MIX
OF SPRINKLES AND FLURRIES OVER THE MCCOOK TO HILL CITY AREA DURING
THE EARLY MORNING AS THERE IS SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THOSE
AREAS BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. DURING THE AFTERNOON
DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AS IT
PROGRESSES OUT OF THE AREA BRINGING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO AN
END.
WINDS WILL BE A CONCERN DURING THE DAY AS A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND STRONG 850MB WINDS CAUSE WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH...WITH
GUSTS OF 50 MPH...TO DEVELOP DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...A SURFACE HIGH MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A SURFACE TROUGH SATURDAY.
850MB WINDS WILL BE STRONG OVER THE MCCOOK AND HILL CITY AREAS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT THAT AREA COULD SEE GUSTS OF 35
MPH. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE COOLEST FRIDAY...WITH
NEAR NORMAL VALES...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. LOWS
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR TONIGHT BUT COOL TO NORMAL VALUES FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM (SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY)...
250 AM MST THU JAN 26 2012
FORECAST AREA UNDER
NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WHEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH. AT THIS TIME AM EXPECTING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND SOME
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. IN FACT...MAY SEE BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS
WHICH IS CURRENTLY NOT DEPICTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AS THERE
ARE VARYING DEGREES OF INTENSITY WITH THIS TROUGH PASSAGE. OTHER
CONCERN TUESDAY AFTERNOON IS FIRE WEATHER. CURRENT RH FORECASTS OF
20-25 PERCENT EXIST ALONG AND WEST OF THE CO/KS BORDER. ADD THE
POSSIBILITY OF STRONGER THEN ADVERTISED WINDS AND FIRE WEATHER
HIGHLITES MAY BE NEEDED.
DISAGREEMENT IN THE UPPER PATTERN DEVELOPS BEHIND THIS TROUGH
PASSAGE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. FOR THE PRESENT TIME NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE WARMEST DAY MONDAY
WHERE MID TO UPPER 50S EXPECTED. BASED ON 850 TEMPS AROUND 10C CANT
RULE OUT A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE 60S. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
20S WHICH TOO IS ABOVE NORMAL.
007
&&
.AVIATION...
1022 AM MST THU JAN 26 2012
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP AT THE MCCOOK TERMINAL DURING
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. GIVEN THAT PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH
CIGS STILL ABOVE 7K FEET...EXPECT MOST OF THE PRECIP TO EVAPORATE
BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND. ANY PRECIP THAT DOES REACH THE GROUND
SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON OPERATIONS. MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT. BY 14Z...SUSTAINED WINDS WILL
REACH 25 KTS WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 35-40 KTS.
PMM
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
250 AM MST THU JAN 26 2012
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 20 TO 25 PERCENT WILL BE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE TRI-STATE AREA. WINDS DURING THE DAY
WILL BE AROUND 20 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE WHICH MAY
LEAD TO HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
ON TUESDAY RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 20 TO 25 PERCENT WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER EAST CENTRAL COLORADO. WIND GUSTS OF 25 MPH MAY LEAD
TO HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
JTL
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
420 AM MST THU JAN 26 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
LATEST SATELLITE AND RUC UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOW WESTERLY FLOW
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND A CLOSED LOW OVER TEXAS. SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS AS WELL AS STRONG WINDS AND A BRIEF WARM UP WERE
OBSERVED AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONT MOVED THROUGH
THE HIGH PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SATURDAY)...
250 AM MST THU JAN 26 2012
CONCERNS FOR THIS PERIOD WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES/PHASE THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AND WINDS FRIDAY.
TODAY...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS DRY AIR AND THE RIGHT
EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET WILL BE OVER THE AREA BEHIND
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AS IT MOVES EAST. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE
THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON TURNING THE WINDS TO THE SOUTH BEHIND
IT.
TONIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
DURING THE NIGHT ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...EXTENDING SOUTHEAST TOWARD OBERLIN AND HILL CITY. MODELS
HAVE THE MOISTURE MOVING IN SOONER THAN AT THIS TIME YESTERDAY.
HOWEVER THERE IS A WARM DRY LAYER BETWEEN THE MOISTURE AND THE
SURFACE. WITH THE LIFT EXTENDING WELL INTO THE DEEP MOISTURE ABOVE
THIS LAYER...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION FROM
OCCURRING. CURRENTLY THINKING PRECIPITATION WILL START OFF AS RAIN
DURING THE EVENING DUE TO THE WARM NOSE IN PLACE. OVERNIGHT THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW AS COOLER AIR MOVES
IN.
FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE MORNING
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. AS THE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NEARS
THE AREA...700MB TO 300MB FRONTOGENESIS BEGINS TO MOVE OVER EAST
CENTRAL COLORADO AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS. WITH THE ENVIRONMENT
BECOMING MORE MOIST AS COOLER AIR MOVES IN...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION FROM OCCURRING OVER THOSE AREAS DURING THE
MORNING. AM THINKING THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW AS COOLER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE IN...WITH A CHANGE TO ALL SNOW BY
MID MORNING. THERE IS THE REMOTE CHANCE OF SOME FREEZING
RAIN/DRIZZLE OCCURRING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...BUT PER
CROSS SECTION ANALYSIS AND SREF PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES AM
THINKING THE COOLER AIR SHOULD MOVE THROUGH QUICK ENOUGH FOR ANY
FREEZING PRECIPITATION THREAT TO BE NEGLIGIBLE. DID INCLUDE A MIX
OF SPRINKLES AND FLURRIES OVER THE MCCOOK TO HILL CITY AREA DURING
THE EARLY MORNING AS THERE IS SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THOSE
AREAS BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. DURING THE AFTERNOON
DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AS IT
PROGRESSES OUT OF THE AREA BRINGING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO AN
END.
WINDS WILL BE A CONCERN DURING THE DAY AS A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND STRONG 850MB WINDS CAUSE WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH...WITH
GUSTS OF 50 MPH...TO DEVELOP DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...A SURFACE HIGH MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A SURFACE TROUGH SATURDAY.
850MB WINDS WILL BE STRONG OVER THE MCCOOK AND HILL CITY AREAS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT THAT AREA COULD SEE GUSTS OF 35
MPH. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE COOLEST FRIDAY...WITH
NEAR NORMAL VALES...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. LOWS
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR TONIGHT BUT COOL TO NORMAL VALUES FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM (SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY)...
250 AM MST THU JAN 26 2012
FORECAST AREA UNDER
NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WHEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH. AT THIS TIME AM EXPECTING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND SOME
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. IN FACT...MAY SEE BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS
WHICH IS CURRENTLY NOT DEPICTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AS THERE
ARE VARYING DEGREES OF INTENSITY WITH THIS TROUGH PASSAGE. OTHER
CONCERN TUESDAY AFTERNOON IS FIRE WEATHER. CURRENT RH FORECASTS OF
20-25 PERCENT EXIST ALONG AND WEST OF THE CO/KS BORDER. ADD THE
POSSIBILITY OF STRONGER THEN ADVERTISED WINDS AND FIRE WEATHER
HIGHLITES MAY BE NEEDED.
DISAGREEMENT IN THE UPPER PATTERN DEVELOPS BEHIND THIS TROUGH
PASSAGE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. FOR THE PRESENT TIME NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE WARMEST DAY MONDAY
WHERE MID TO UPPER 50S EXPECTED. BASED ON 850 TEMPS AROUND 10C CANT
RULE OUT A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE 60S. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
20S WHICH TOO IS ABOVE NORMAL.
007
&&
.AVIATION...
420 AM MST THU JAN 26 2012
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK. GUSTY NW WINDS TO
DEVELOP MID TO LATE MORNING BEFORE QUICKLY DECREASING TO LESS THEN
5KTS BY MID AFTERNOON AS A SFC TROUGH DEVELOPS. S/SW WINDS 10-15KTS
TO REDEVELOP BY 01Z-03Z AND COULD BE GUSTY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
THAT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH BOTH TERMINALS AROUND 10Z FRIDAY MORNING.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT WITH CIGS AROUND 8K FT BY 10Z FRIDAY
MORNING. MAY SEE SLIGHTLY LOWER CIGS THEN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. A BIT TOO FAR OUT RIGHT NOW TO INCLUDE IN
THE TAF.
007
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
250 AM MST THU JAN 26 2012
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 20 TO 25 PERCENT WILL BE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE TRI-STATE AREA. WINDS DURING THE DAY
WILL BE AROUND 20 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE WHICH MAY
LEAD TO HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
ON TUESDAY RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 20 TO 25 PERCENT WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER EAST CENTRAL COLORADO. WIND GUSTS OF 25 MPH MAY LEAD
TO HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
JTL
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
308 AM MST THU JAN 26 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
LATEST SATELLITE AND RUC UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOW WESTERLY FLOW
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND A CLOSED LOW OVER TEXAS. SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS AS WELL AS STRONG WINDS AND A BRIEF WARM UP WERE
OBSERVED AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONT MOVED THROUGH
THE HIGH PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SATURDAY)...
250 AM MST THU JAN 26 2012
CONCERNS FOR THIS PERIOD WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES/PHASE THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AND WINDS FRIDAY.
TODAY...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS DRY AIR AND THE RIGHT
EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET WILL BE OVER THE AREA BEHIND
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AS IT MOVES EAST. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE
THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON TURNING THE WINDS TO THE SOUTH BEHIND
IT.
TONIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
DURING THE NIGHT ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...EXTENDING SOUTHEAST TOWARD OBERLIN AND HILL CITY. MODELS HAVE
THE MOISTURE MOVING IN SOONER THAN AT THIS TIME YESTERDAY. HOWEVER
THERE IS A WARM DRY LAYER BETWEEN THE MOISTURE AND THE SURFACE.
WITH THE LIFT EXTENDING WELL INTO THE DEEP MOISTURE ABOVE THIS
LAYER...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION FROM
OCCURRING. CURRENTLY THINKING PRECIPITATION WILL START OFF AS RAIN
DURING THE EVENING DUE TO THE WARM NOSE IN PLACE. OVERNIGHT THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW AS COOLER AIR MOVES
IN.
FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE MORNING
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. AS THE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NEARS
THE AREA...700MB TO 300MB FRONTOGENESIS BEGINS TO MOVE OVER EAST
CENTRAL COLORADO AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS. WITH THE ENVIRONMENT
BECOMING MORE MOIST AS COOLER AIR MOVES IN...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION FROM OCCURRING OVER THOSE AREAS DURING THE
MORNING. AM THINKING THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW AS COOLER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE IN...WITH A CHANGE TO ALL SNOW BY
MID MORNING. THERE IS THE REMOTE CHANCE OF SOME FREEZING
RAIN/DRIZZLE OCCURRING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...BUT PER
CROSS SECTION ANALYSIS AND SREF PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES AM
THINKING THE COOLER AIR SHOULD MOVE THROUGH QUICK ENOUGH FOR ANY
FREEZING PRECIPITATION THREAT TO BE NEGLIGIBLE. DID INCLUDE A MIX
OF SPRINKLES AND FLURRIES OVER THE MCCOOK TO HILL CITY AREA DURING
THE EARLY MORNING AS THERE IS SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THOSE
AREAS BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. DURING THE AFTERNOON
DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AS IT
PROGRESSES OUT OF THE AREA BRINGING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO AN
END.
WINDS WILL BE A CONCERN DURING THE DAY AS A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND STRONG 850MB WINDS CAUSE WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH...WITH
GUSTS OF 50 MPH...TO DEVELOP DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...A SURFACE HIGH MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A SURFACE TROUGH SATURDAY.
850MB WINDS WILL BE STRONG OVER THE MCCOOK AND HILL CITY AREAS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT THAT AREA COULD SEE GUSTS OF 35
MPH. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE COOLEST FRIDAY...WITH
NEAR NORMAL VALES...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. LOWS
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR TONIGHT BUT COOL TO NORMAL VALUES FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM (SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY)...
250 AM MST THU JAN 26 2012
FORECAST AREA UNDER
NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WHEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH. AT THIS TIME AM EXPECTING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND SOME
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. IN FACT...MAY SEE BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS
WHICH IS CURRENTLY NOT DEPICTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AS THERE
ARE VARYING DEGREES OF INTENSITY WITH THIS TROUGH PASSAGE. OTHER
CONCERN TUESDAY AFTERNOON IS FIRE WEATHER. CURRENT RH FORECASTS OF
20-25 PERCENT EXIST ALONG AND WEST OF THE CO/KS BORDER. ADD THE
POSSIBILITY OF STRONGER THEN ADVERTISED WINDS AND FIRE WEATHER
HIGHLITES MAY BE NEEDED.
DISAGREEMENT IN THE UPPER PATTERN DEVELOPS BEHIND THIS TROUGH
PASSAGE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. FOR THE PRESENT TIME NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE WARMEST DAY MONDAY
WHERE MID TO UPPER 50S EXPECTED. BASED ON 850 TEMPS AROUND 10C CANT
RULE OUT A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE 60S. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
20S WHICH TOO IS ABOVE NORMAL.
007
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1005 PM MST WED JAN 25 2012
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS OVERNIGHT
AND MUCH OF THE DAY ON THURSDAY WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AFTER 00Z FRIDAY
AS THE SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE EAST OF THE REGION.
IN ADDITION...MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AFTER 00Z IN ADVANCE OF
AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
250 AM MST THU JAN 26 2012
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 20 TO 25 PERCENT WILL BE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE TRI-STATE AREA. WINDS DURING THE DAY WILL BE
AROUND 20 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE WHICH MAY LEAD TO
HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
ON TUESDAY RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 20 TO 25 PERCENT WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER EAST CENTRAL COLORADO. WIND GUSTS OF 25 MPH MAY LEAD
TO HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
JTL
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GRAY ME
606 AM EST THU JAN 26 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH TOMORROW. LOW PRESSURE
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST PROMPTING A COASTAL LOW TO DEEPEN ALONG
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND SPREAD RAIN AND SNOW OVER NEW ENGLAND. THE
LOW WILL EXIT INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES FRIDAY NIGHT. A WEAK
TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. A LARGER TROUGH AND COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
BEHIND THE FRONT FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...INPUT CURRENT OBS AND TRENDED TO FCST FROM THERE.
0900Z UPDATE...ADDED SOME NON POP FLURRIES TO THE FCST FOR SRN
NH. A LITTLE BAND OF ENHANCED CIRRUS IS LIKELY PROVIDING SOME
SEEDER- FEEDER MECHANISM TO SPARK A FEW SHSN. HRRR ACTUALLY HAS A
PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON THIS SAGGING SWD AND EVENTUALLY CLEARING OUT
BY 12Z.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MAINLY DEALING WITH CIRRUS CLOUDS
TNGT...WHICH SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND THICKNESS
THRU MORNING. AS THEY DO...TEMPS SHOULD QUICKLY FALL AS SFC RIDGE
AXIS NEARS. QUIET DAY EXPECTED TDY. SEASONABLY MILD TEMPS...USED A
MAV/MET BLEND FOR HIGHS. CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE SW LATE IN THE
DAY...AS SRN STREAM S/WV LIFTS NE TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND. LOW
PROBABILITY THAN -SN/RA MAKES IT INTO FAR SWRN NH THIS
EVE...OTHERWISE PCPN HOLDS OFF UNTIL OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
S/WV ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPR TROF AND SUBSEQUENT SECONDARY
LOW PRES DEVELOPMENT IS THE EASY PART OF THE FCST. THE EXACT
LOCATIONS OF THAT LOW AND THE RESULTING THERMAL PROFILES ARE MUCH
MORE DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN. INITIALLY HIGH PRES WILL BE IN PLACE
AS PCPN APPROACHES NRN NEW ENGLAND. DIURNAL COOLING WILL ALSO HAVE
TEMPERATURES BACK BLO FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE ARE...WITH WET BULB
TEMPS BLO FREEZING FOR THE REST. THIS MEANS PCPN SHOULD BEGIN AS
SNFL FOR EVERYBODY. A QUICK THUMP OF SN WILL QUICKLY CHANGE TO
RAIN ALONG THE COAST...AS ELY WINDS PULL IN ANOMALOUSLY WARM
MARINE AIR.
ACROSS THE INTERIOR THINGS BECOME MUCH LESS CLEAR. DEPARTING HIGH
PRES WILL ALLOW WARM AIR ALOFT TO FLOOD NWD. THIS FAVORS WARM AIR
INVADING THE INTERIOR S OF THE FOOTHILLS AND THE CT RIVER VALLEY
FIRST. HERE SNOW WILL MIX WITH PL BEFORE CHANGING TO FZRA.
SOUNDINGS SHOW A PRETTY GOOD ICE SIGNAL...AND THIS MATCHES WELL
WITH LATEST SREF PROBS. CNTRL NH AND ERN FACING HIGHER TERRAIN
LOOK MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO ICE ACCUMS...AS THIS IS WHERE THE
GREATEST DEPTH OF WARM AIR ALOFT WILL BE. PL WILL HANG ON A LITTLE
LONGER FOR WRN ME...BEFORE THE FOOTHILLS AND INTERIOR SEE FZRA.
ATTM...CANNOT RULE OUT GREATER THAN A QUARTER INCH OF
ICE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NH. THE GOOD NEWS BEING THAT PCPN WILL
COME DOWN HEAVY AT TIMES...ALLOWING FOR BOTH RUNOFF AND LATENT
HEATING DUE TO FREEZING...AS WELL AS OVERALL SHORTER DURATION OF
STEADY PCPN. THIS WILL PUT A LIMIT ON THE TOTAL AMOUNT OF ICE. FOR
THE MTNS OF WRN ME AND FAR NRN COOS...DEEPER COLD AIR WILL ALLOW
FOR A MOSTLY SNOW SCENARIO...WITH WARNING CRITERIA LIKELY. EVEN
HERE A MIX WITH PL IS PSBL BY FRIDAY MORNING. ALL IN ALL THE
COMBINATION OF SN...PL...AND FZRA WILL CREATE VERY HAZARDOUS
TRAVEL CONDS AS WELL AS PSBL TREE DAMAGE AND SUBSEQUENT POWER
OUTAGES.
AS STORM PULLS NEWD ALONG MAINE COASTLINE...DRY SLOT WILL BRING AN
END TO PCPN FRI AFTN. THIS WILL PROBABLY MEAN A PERIOD OF FZDZ
BEFORE COLUMNS DRIES OUT ENOUGH....AS WELL AS UPSLOPE SHSN
DEVELOPING.
TEMPS FRI WILL BE WARMEST ALONG THE COAST...AS THOSE AREAS WILL
CLIMB TO NEAR 40. THE INTERIOR AND MTNS WILL HOVER AOB
FREEZING...AND FAVORED THE COOLER MET FOR STARTERS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ANY MIX OVER FAR EASTERN COUNTIES MAY BRIEFLY CHANGE BACK TO SNOW
BEFORE ENDING FRIDAY EVENING...AS COLD AIR WRAPS AROUND
INTENSIFYING SURFACE LOW. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE EMBEDDED
WITHIN A FAST FLOW AND WILL EXIT THROUGH THE MARITIMES OVERNIGHT
FRIDAY NIGHT.
AN ELONGATED SURFACE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AS IT PASSES THROUGH MAINE
AND NEW HAMPSHIRE LATE FRIDAY. THERE MAY BE A FEW SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT EXPECT THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO HAVE
THE MOST PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WHERE BEST UPSLOPE
CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE. A SIMILAR SCENARIO WILL PLAY ITSELF
OUT LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS
THROUGH MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE.
RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS MONDAY...WILL BE REPLACED BY A BROAD
AREA OF WARM AIR ADVECTION COVERING THE REGION ON TUESDAY. BY
WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW A RARE WINTERTIME TRACK NORTH
OF THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY. 00Z MODEL SUITE MEMBERS ARE
CONSISTENT WITH THIS TRACK. THIS WILL KEEP NEW ENGLAND WITHIN THE
WARM SECTOR...CONTINUING OUR MILD...MID WINTER CONDITIONS AS WE
ENTER FEBRUARY.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...CONDS WILL RAPIDLY DETERIORATE TO IFR OR LOWER AS LOW
PRES APPROACHES FROM THE SW. SN...PL...AND FZRA WILL OVERSPREAD
THE AREA AND CONTINUE INTO FRI. KPSM...KPWM...AND KRKD WILL LIKELY
CHANGE TO RA DURING THU NGT.
LONG TERM...
ANY LEFTOVER AREAS OF LIFR CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY BE IMPROVING
FRIDAY EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL BECOME VFR WITH LOCALIZED MVFR
CLOUD DECK LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF TWO
TROUGHS OF LOW PRESSURE. A MORE BROAD AREA OF IFR CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA CONDS WILL DEVELOP TNGT AS LOW PRES APPROACHES
FROM THE SW.
LONG TERM...
THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF GALES FRIDAY NIGHT BEHIND EXITING
INTENSIFYING SYSTEM.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST
FRIDAY FOR MEZ012>014-018>022-026>028.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST FRIDAY
FOR MEZ007>009.
NH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST
FRIDAY FOR NHZ002>010-013.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST FRIDAY
FOR NHZ001.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
ANZ150>154.
&&
$$
LEGRO/JC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GRAY ME
419 AM EST THU JAN 26 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH TOMORROW. LOW PRESSURE
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST PROMPTING A COASTAL LOW TO DEEPEN ALONG
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND SPREAD RAIN AND SNOW OVER NEW ENGLAND. THE
LOW WILL EXIT INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES FRIDAY NIGHT. A WEAK
TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. A LARGER TROUGH AND COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
BEHIND THE FRONT FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...ADDED SOME NON POP FLURRIES TO THE FCST FOR SRN NH. A
LITTLE BAND OF ENHANCED CIRRUS IS LIKELY PROVIDING SOME SEEDER-
FEEDER MECHANISM TO SPARK A FEW SHSN. HRRR ACTUALLY HAS A PRETTY
GOOD HANDLE ON THIS SAGGING SWD AND EVENTUALLY CLEARING OUT BY
12Z.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MAINLY DEALING WITH CIRRUS CLOUDS
TNGT...WHICH SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND THICKNESS
THRU MORNING. AS THEY DO...TEMPS SHOULD QUICKLY FALL AS SFC RIDGE
AXIS NEARS. QUIET DAY EXPECTED TDY. SEASONABLY MILD TEMPS...USED A
MAV/MET BLEND FOR HIGHS. CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE SW LATE IN THE
DAY...AS SRN STREAM S/WV LIFTS NE TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND. LOW
PROBABILITY THAN -SN/RA MAKES IT INTO FAR SWRN NH THIS
EVE...OTHERWISE PCPN HOLDS OFF UNTIL OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
S/WV ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPR TROF AND SUBSEQUENT SECONDARY
LOW PRES DEVELOPMENT IS THE EASY PART OF THE FCST. THE EXACT
LOCATIONS OF THAT LOW AND THE RESULTING THERMAL PROFILES ARE MUCH
MORE DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN. INITIALLY HIGH PRES WILL BE IN PLACE
AS PCPN APPROACHES NRN NEW ENGLAND. DIURNAL COOLING WILL ALSO HAVE
TEMPERATURES BACK BLO FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE ARE...WITH WET BULB
TEMPS BLO FREEZING FOR THE REST. THIS MEANS PCPN SHOULD BEGIN AS
SNFL FOR EVERYBODY. A QUICK THUMP OF SN WILL QUICKLY CHANGE TO
RAIN ALONG THE COAST...AS ELY WINDS PULL IN ANOMALOUSLY WARM
MARINE AIR.
ACROSS THE INTERIOR THINGS BECOME MUCH LESS CLEAR. DEPARTING HIGH
PRES WILL ALLOW WARM AIR ALOFT TO FLOOD NWD. THIS FAVORS WARM AIR
INVADING THE INTERIOR S OF THE FOOTHILLS AND THE CT RIVER VALLEY
FIRST. HERE SNOW WILL MIX WITH PL BEFORE CHANGING TO FZRA.
SOUNDINGS SHOW A PRETTY GOOD ICE SIGNAL...AND THIS MATCHES WELL
WITH LATEST SREF PROBS. CNTRL NH AND ERN FACING HIGHER TERRAIN
LOOK MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO ICE ACCUMS...AS THIS IS WHERE THE
GREATEST DEPTH OF WARM AIR ALOFT WILL BE. PL WILL HANG ON A LITTLE
LONGER FOR WRN ME...BEFORE THE FOOTHILLS AND INTERIOR SEE FZRA.
ATTM...CANNOT RULE OUT GREATER THAN A QUARTER INCH OF
ICE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NH. THE GOOD NEWS BEING THAT PCPN WILL
COME DOWN HEAVY AT TIMES...ALLOWING FOR BOTH RUNOFF AND LATENT
HEATING DUE TO FREEZING...AS WELL AS OVERALL SHORTER DURATION OF
STEADY PCPN. THIS WILL PUT A LIMIT ON THE TOTAL AMOUNT OF ICE. FOR
THE MTNS OF WRN ME AND FAR NRN COOS...DEEPER COLD AIR WILL ALLOW
FOR A MOSTLY SNOW SCENARIO...WITH WARNING CRITERIA LIKELY. EVEN
HERE A MIX WITH PL IS PSBL BY FRIDAY MORNING. ALL IN ALL THE
COMBINATION OF SN...PL...AND FZRA WILL CREATE VERY HAZARDOUS
TRAVEL CONDS AS WELL AS PSBL TREE DAMAGE AND SUBSEQUENT POWER
OUTAGES.
AS STORM PULLS NEWD ALONG MAINE COASTLINE...DRY SLOT WILL BRING AN
END TO PCPN FRI AFTN. THIS WILL PROBABLY MEAN A PERIOD OF FZDZ
BEFORE COLUMNS DRIES OUT ENOUGH....AS WELL AS UPSLOPE SHSN
DEVELOPING.
TEMPS FRI WILL BE WARMEST ALONG THE COAST...AS THOSE AREAS WILL
CLIMB TO NEAR 40. THE INTERIOR AND MTNS WILL HOVER AOB
FREEZING...AND FAVORED THE COOLER MET FOR STARTERS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ANY MIX OVER FAR EASTERN COUNTIES MAY BRIEFLY CHANGE BACK TO SNOW
BEFORE ENDING FRIDAY EVENING...AS COLD AIR WRAPS AROUND
INTENSIFYING SURFACE LOW. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE EMBEDDED
WITHIN A FAST FLOW AND WILL EXIT THROUGH THE MARITIMES OVERNIGHT
FRIDAY NIGHT.
AN ELONGATED SURFACE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AS IT PASSES THROUGH MAINE
AND NEW HAMPSHIRE LATE FRIDAY. THERE MAY BE A FEW SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT EXPECT THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO HAVE
THE MOST PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WHERE BEST UPSLOPE
CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE. A SIMILAR SCENARIO WILL PLAY ITSELF
OUT LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS
THROUGH MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE.
RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS MONDAY...WILL BE REPLACED BY A BROAD
AREA OF WARM AIR ADVECTION COVERING THE REGION ON TUESDAY. BY
WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW A RARE WINTERTIME TRACK NORTH
OF THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY. 00Z MODEL SUITE MEMBERS ARE
CONSISTENT WITH THIS TRACK. THIS WILL KEEP NEW ENGLAND WITHIN THE
WARM SECTOR...CONTINUING OUR MILD...MID WINTER CONDITIONS AS WE
ENTER FEBRUARY.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...CONDS WILL RAPIDLY DETERIORATE TO IFR OR LOWER AS LOW
PRES APPROACHES FROM THE SW. SN...PL...AND FZRA WILL OVERSPREAD
THE AREA AND CONTINUE INTO FRI. KPSM...KPWM...AND KRKD WILL LIKELY
CHANGE TO RA DURING THU NGT.
LONG TERM...
ANY LEFTOVER AREAS OF LIFR CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY BE IMPROVING
FRIDAY EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL BECOME VFR WITH LOCALIZED MVFR
CLOUD DECK LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF TWO
TROUGHS OF LOW PRESSURE. A MORE BROAD AREA OF IFR CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA CONDS WILL DEVELOP TNGT AS LOW PRES APPROACHES
FROM THE SW.
LONG TERM...
THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF GALES FRIDAY NIGHT BEHIND EXITING
INTENSIFYING SYSTEM.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST
FRIDAY FOR MEZ012>014-018>022-026>028.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST FRIDAY
FOR MEZ007>009.
NH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST
FRIDAY FOR NHZ002>010-013.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST FRIDAY
FOR NHZ001.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
ANZ150>154.
&&
$$
LEGRO/JC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
419 PM EST THU JAN 26 2012
.SHORT TERM...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS A SHOTRWAVE OVER THE NRN
PLAINS POISED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. RADAR RETURNS SHOW A
NARROW BAND OF PCPN IN FORM OF LIGHT SNOW ASSOC WITH THIS FEATURE
OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AND NW WI. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE NOW OVER THE NRN
ROCKIES IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE UPR MS VALLEY AND WRN GREAT
LAKES LATE FRIDAY BRINGING ANOTHER CHC FOR LIGHT SNOW FRI AFTERNOON
AND FRI NIGHT.
800-700 MB FGEN AND MODERATE MID-LVL Q-VECT CONV ALONG FRONTAL
BOUNDARY HAS RESULTED IN BAND OF LIGHT SNOW OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR
AND NW WI. MODELS INDICATE FGEN FORCING AND Q-VECT CONV WILL WEAKEN
SOME ALONG THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT THEN STRENGTH A BIT OVER THE ERN
FCST LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THUS...KEPT ONLY SLIGHT CHC
POPS FOR SNOW OVER THE WRN HALF OF THE FCST AREA THIS EVENING AND
KEPT IN 30 PCT POPS OVER THE ERN COUNTIES. CLEARING LATER THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE TEENS OVER
THE WRN INTERIOR WHERE TEMPS ELSEWHERE SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER
TO MID 20S. 850 MB TEMPS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO DROP
TO -8 TO -9C WHICH SHOULD NOT BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ANY LES IN WNW FLOW
BEHIND FRONT.
RDGG MOVING OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP MUCH OF THE CWA DRY ON FRIDAY.
THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE FAR WRN COUNTIES FRI AFTERNOON WHERE
SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FM THE NRN ROCKIES WILL BRING ANOTHER CHC OF
SNOW LATE IN THE DAY.
.LONG TERM DISCUSSION /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
LARGE SHORTWAVE OVER JAMES BAY WILL KEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH SEVERAL WEAK AND FAST MOVING
SHORTWAVES DEVELOPING ALONG THE DESCENDING BRANCH OF THE TROUGH OVER
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE FIRST OF THESE SHORTWAVES WILL REACH THE
CWA SATURDAY MORNING...MERGING WITH A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TO OUR
SOUTH...WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND PRECIP
IMPACTING THE AREA BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT CONTINUING DURING THE DAY
ON SATURDAY. ALL MODELS ARE PERSISTENT ON THIS IDEA...HOWEVER THERE
SEEMS TO BE SOME DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE NAM AND OTHER MODELS AS
FAR AS THE PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW...AND RESULTING PRECIP.
BASED ON SREF DATA ALSO TRENDING AWAY FROM GENERAL NAM
SOLUTION...HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH CONSENSUS OF OTHER MODELS WHICH
WILL KEEP SURFACE LOW AND MAIN QVECTOR CONV TO THE SOUTH...KEEPING
MAIN PRECIP ALONG THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...WITH SOME CHANCES
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REMAINING CWA.
AS SYSTEM PULLS OUT SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL TRANSITION TO A
WNW DIRECTION AND THEN EVENTUALLY TO A MORE W DIRECTION BY SATURDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE FINALLY VEERING BACK TO THE NW BY SUNDAY MORNING
AHEAD OF NEXT APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. FALLING H850 TEMPS TO AROUND
-14C BEHIND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AND AHEAD OF A DESCENDING
POLAR JET WILL INDUCE LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN WNW FAVORED REGIONS DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY...AND THEN INTENSIFY IN AREAS FAVORED BY A NW WIND
DIRECTION DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AS H850 TEMPS BOTTOM OUT TO AROUND
-18C. POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY ACCUMULATIONS IN AFFECTED AREAS IS
POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS PERIOD/SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING...AS INVERSION HEIGHTS RANGE BETWEEN 5K-10K FT WITH DEEP
MOISTURE AVAILABLE AT TIMES IN THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
STRONG RIDGE AMPLIFICATION OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WILL ALLOW LARGE
SHORTWAVE TO REMAIN STATIONARY ACROSS HUDSON BAY...WITH A RESULTING
TROUGHING PATTERN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS SHARP TROUGH
WILL ALLOW THE POLAR JET TO DIP DOWN AS FAR SOUTH AS KENTUCKY SUNDAY
NIGHT...WHICH WILL TRANSLATE TO THE RETURN OF MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. H850 TEMPS OF -18C OVER THE LAKE WILL
KEEP SOME LINGERING CHANCES OF LES IN AREAS FAVORED BY NW
WINDS...QUICKLY DIMINISHING AS WAA ADVECTION COMES IN TO PLAY AND
WINDS BACK TO A MORE SW DIRECTION. AT THIS POINT/SUNDAY NIGHT/ THE
POLAR JET WILL MERGE WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET AND MOVE
EASTWARD...WHICH WILL SLOWLY LIFT THE STATIONARY TROUGH TO THE
NORTHEAST AND RETURN MUCH OF THE US TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW BY MONDAY
NIGHT. WEAK SURFACE DISTURBANCE WILL FORM ALONG THE DESCENDING
BRANCH OF THIS SHORTWAVE...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SYNOPTIC SNOWFALL
MONDAY...BEFORE QUICKLY MOVING OFF TO THE EAST FOLLOWING THE GENERAL
UPR LEVEL FLOW. SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENTS ON TIMING AND STRENGTH OF
THIS SHORTWAVE...WITH GFS BEING MORE PROGRESSIVE AND ECMWF BEING
SLOWER YET STRONGER...SO HAVE GONE WITH A GENERAL CONSENSUS.
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA SOMETIME
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT NIGHT...WITH SAME DISAGREEMENT AND LOW
CONFIDENCE BETWEEN THE MODELS ON THE EXACT LOCATION AND STRENGTH.
ECMWF AND GEM ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE
SHORTWAVE...HAVING IT AMPLIFYING IT OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY
TUESDAY MORNING...GFS ON THE OTHER HAND KEEPS THE LOW FARTHER TO OUR
SOUTH...PASSING ACROSS LAKE MI BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. DESPITE
DISAGREEMENTS ON PLACEMENT...STRONG MOISTURE AVAILABILITY/PWAT
VALUES 200 PCT ABOVE NORMAL/ AND WAA WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP CHANCES
OF PRECIP IN BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY EAST HALF OF
THE CWA. THIS AMPLIFIED TROUGH WILL ONCE AGAIN BRING SOME COLDER
TEMPERATURES IN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TUESDAY NIGHT. UPPER
GREAT LAKES SHOULD THEN TRANSITION TO A RIDGING PATTERN WITH
RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
EXPECT MVFR CIGS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY WITH SOME IFR CIGS AT
KSAW INTO MID AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THIS EVENING AND
ASSOC MIXING AND DRIER AIR SHOULD ALLOW MVFR CIGS TO LIFT AND VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL BY LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
&&
.MARINE /FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE/...
EXPECT GUSTY SW WINDS TO 25 KTS INTO EARLY THIS EVENING AHEAD OF
APPROACHING TROUGH. AFTER THE TROUGH PASSES...W/WNW WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 30 KTS...MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR
THIS EVENING INTO FRI MORNING. THERE COULD BE A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS
TO 35 KTS BUT PREVAILING WIND SPD SHOULD STAY BLO GALES. A SERIES OF
TROUGHS WILL THEN PASS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY. EACH OF THESE
TROUGHS WILL BRING INCREASED WINDS...WITH A POSSIBLE PERIOD OF GALES
SAT AFTERNOON INTO SAT EVENING...MAINLY OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE
LAKE WHERE A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR
LSZ265>267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
548 AM CST THU JAN 26 2012
...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.DISCUSSION...
/406 AM CST THU JAN 26 2012/
In the very short term dense fog has rapidly formed on the western
fringe of the stratus deck which has been steadily backing up to the
northwest and towards the northwest corner of MO. Local observations
and calls to law enforcement across northern MO indicates areas of
dense fog has been forming/spreading across this area as well. Last
couple of runs of the SREF fog product did a reasonably good job of
picking out these areas for potential dense fog. The dense fog will
stick through the morning commute to work and prudent action to take
is to issue a dense fog advisory. Conditions will likely improve
quickly by mid morning.
Otherwise, the closed upper low over TX will phase in with the
shortwave now digging southeast through the Dakotas. An associated
windshift line with gusty wnw to nw winds will sweep through the CWA
this morning/early afternoon and clean out the extensive stratus
deck. Can`t call this a cold front as temperatures are in the
mid/upper 30s across the Dakotas...thanks to a dry downslope flow.
Inspection of 00z NAM/GFS Bufr soundings and the aforementioned
downslope winds suggest going a tad warmer on max temperatures south
of the MO River.
Attention will then turn to a fast moving upper level impulse
embedded within the fast nearly zonal flow now approaching the West
Coast that will streak through the Central Plains on Friday. Models
have been vacillating for the past couple of days as to how far
south any precipitation will fall. They have been reasonably
consistent that IA and northern MO will most likely have the best
chance for precipitation. Model consensus favors a slightly more
southern track to the upper level impulse with a fair amount of
Pacific moisture to work with. Given the layered, albeit weak,
frontogenesis and favorable isentropic ascent sweeping across much
of the CWA confidence has increased enough to raise pops
considerably with likely pops for northern MO warranted. With the
precipitation likely delayed until mid morning over northwest MO
surface temperatures should be above freezing. Sounding profiles
across northern MO indicate a top-down saturation process with a
very dry sub-cloud region with a warm nose lying under the cloud
base. No longer believe freezing precipitation is possible so
precipitation type will be mainly liquid although brief periods of a
rain/snow mix will be possible.
This system will be quite progressive so the rain and any snow will
exit the CWa by Friday evening. A weak cold front will move through
the CWA on Friday but by Saturday boundary layer winds will have a
decided westerly component to them so not much of a cool down
expected on Saturday. In fact, temperatures will once again be above
normal, although not to the extent of recent days.
MJ
Medium Range (Sunday-Thursday)...
After a day with near normal temperatures on Sunday, thanks to
residual northwest flow behind a departing upper trough, we`ll begin
to focus on yet another sustained period of above normal
temperatures. The longwave pattern will continue to feature rather
progressive flow aloft with higher than normal heights for this time
of the year.
For Monday and Monday night: We`ll begin watching yet another
progressive shortwave move into the Pacific Northwest Monday and
across the central CONUS Tuesday. As this shortwave approaches the
Rockies, it will induce a rapid response in low level thermal in
wind fields by Monday morning. 925:850 temperatures between 6C and
8C will advect over the region with a breezy southwesterly wind
developing. Numerical model guidance seems to be clustered in the
lower 50s. However, given the pattern setup feel that readings will
most likely be closer to those of the latest ECMWF with potential to
reach the middle and upper 50s. Thus will bump readings up, which
may need to be repeated in later forecast. Monday night will
feature warm conditions again as surface troughing begins to
approach the region from the northwest. The surface pressure
gradient will not relax much Monday night and conditions will remain
rather mixy. This should hold temperatures (along with an increase
in stratus) in the upper 30s to 40s or above typical high
temperatures values.
Tuesday-Wednesday: The aforementioned shortwave will pass through
the region. The ECMWF remains further north and weaker than the
GFS. Nevertheless, moisture will struggle to reach the area and
would anticipate little more than very light showers or drizzle
embedded in stratus that advects northward ahead of the surface
boundary. Temperatures will have little problem climb well into the
50s for Tuesday. The airmass behind this front will be Pacific in
nature and the modified airmass will provide little to no cooldown
for Wednesday. A westerly wind will promote temperatures climbing
well into the 50s yet again and these readings have the potential to
climb even higher.
Dux
&&
.AVIATION...
For the 12Z TAFs...LIFR fog/stratus has formed and spread across
west central and northwest MO this morning. Local aviation
climatological studies suggest these conditions could linger for
most of the morning. Latest HRRR visibility and SREF progs show
similar forecasts. With that in mind will extend the LIFR
fog/stratus for an additional 1-2 hours. Drier and stronger
northwest winds arriving around the noon hour should scour out
this mess.
Thereafter, VFR conditions expected. The gusty winds will subside
shortly before sunset as deeper mixing ends. Increasing mid level
clouds after midnight will announce the arrival of the next system
approaching the region. Any precipitation will hold off until after
this forecast.
MJ
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR MOZ003>008-
012>017-020>024-028>031-037-038-043-044-053.
KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR KSZ025-057-
060-102>105.
&&
$$
WFO EAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
911 PM CST FRI JAN 27 2012
.UPDATE...SENT AN ADDITIONAL UPDATE TO THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT
FOR A FEW STUBBORN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING TO TRACK RAPIDLY
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF HARLAN AND PHILLIPS COUNTY THIS
HOUR. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION WITH THESE
SHOWERS...MAYBE A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF TOTAL SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION IN SPOTS AS EVIDENT IN A COUPLE OF NE ROAD CAMERAS
UPSTREAM OF THIS AREA. HOWEVER...BY MIDNIGHT...ALL ACTIVITY SHOULD
HAVE DIMINISHED OR TRACKED OUT OF THE LOCAL AREA AND CLEARING
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SEASONABLY COOL MORNING
ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE TO FORECAST
AT THIS TIME.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 601 PM CST FRI JAN 27 2012/
UPDATE...WILL GO AHEAD AND UPDATE THE FORECAST PACKAGE TO
REFLECT THE EXPIRATION OF THE WIND ADVISORY AS WINDS CONTINUE TO
RELAX AND HAVE NOW FALLEN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. NO OTHER
CHANGES NECESSARY AT THIS TIME.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 551 PM CST FRI JAN 27 2012/
AVIATION...00Z KGRI TAF...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KGRI FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS RELAXING THIS EVENING
AND SHIFTING MORE WESTERLY OVERNIGHT. WHILE A FEW LOW/MID LEVEL
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH DIURNAL HEATING MAY PERSIST FOR A COUPLE OF
HOURS...GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES WILL BE DOMINANT OVERNIGHT...WITH
SOME HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. WINDS SATURDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE AND BECOME
GUSTY...BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS ELEVATED AS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH GENERALLY WESTERLY WINDS 15G25KTS EXPECTED AFT
28/15Z.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 421 PM CST FRI JAN 27 2012/
SHORT TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. PRIMARY CONCERNS ARE
TWO-FOLD...FIRST THE ONGOING WIND ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON...AND
THEN POTENTIAL/LIKELY FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
AT 21Z...OBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS A HEALTHY PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA...AS A 1022+MB HIGH SETTLES INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING DEEP MIXING
TO AROUND 800MB...THE WIND ADVISORY FOR ALL BUT THE FAR EASTERN
CWA HAS WORKED OUT FAIRLY WELL...WITH SEVERAL AUTOMATED AIRPORT
SITES RECORDING SUSTAINED SPEEDS NEAR/JUST OVER 30 MPH...ALTHOUGH
PEAK GUSTS HAVE LARGELY TOPPED OUT AROUND 40 MPH...MAKING THIS A
LOW-END WIND ADVISORY OVERALL. ALOFT...AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR AND
SHORT TERM MODEL DATA CONFIRMS A BROAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. WITH PRIMARY ZONE OF SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT
AND MID LEVEL SATURATION HAS BEEN OFF TO THE EAST FOR SEVERAL
HOURS NOW...WITH NO PRECIPITATION NOTED SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON
WITHIN THE CWA. TEMP WISE...HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON MET OR ONLY SLIGHTLY
EXCEEDED ORIGINAL FORECAST FROM THIS MORNING...RANGING FROM AROUND
40 IN THE NORTH TO UPPER 40S SOUTH.
LATE THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT...THE MAIN ISSUE IS THE ONGOING WIND
ADVISORY. WITH NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING A RAPID DIURNAL
DIMINISHMENT IN MIXING AROUND SUNSET...THE 00Z EXPIRATION TIME
LOOKS LIKE ON TARGET. THAT BEING SAID...IT WILL REMAIN RATHER
BREEZY WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS HOLDING
UP IN THE 15-20 MPH RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS. BY MIDNIGHT AND
THEREAFTER...SPEEDS SHOULD EASE DOWN INTO THE 5-15 MPH RANGE AND
TRANSITION MORE WESTERLY AS THE CENTER OF THE EXPANSIVE SURFACE
HIGH TO THE WEST SLIDES SOUTH. TURNING TO PRECIPITATION TRENDS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT...INTRODUCED A MENTION OF
SCATTERED/ISOLATED FLURRIES THROUGH 03Z ACROSS MOST NEB ZONES...TO
ACCOUNT FOR UPSTREAM SNOW SHOWERS NOW EVIDENT OVER WESTERN/NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THESE SNOW SHOWERS ARE A CLASSIC CASE OF PARTIAL
SUNSHINE ACTING UPON STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES UNDER THE COLD
POCKET ALOFT...WITH THE LATEST SPC RUC MESOANALYSIS INDICATING 0-3KM
LAPSE RATES NOW IN THE 7.5-8.5 C/KM RANGE. SHORT TERM HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR AND 4KM WRF-NMM HAVE HAD A GOOD
HANDLE ON THIS SNOW SHOWER/FLURRY ACTIVITY ALL DAY NOW...WITH THE
HRRR AND RADAR TRENDS CONFIRMING THAT THE WESTERN 1/2 OF THE CWA
IS MOST AT RISK FOR CATCHING SOME OF THIS FAST-MOVING ACTIVITY.
STRONGLY CONSIDERED ADDING A LOW MEASURABLE POP TO ACCOUNT FOR
POSSIBILITY THAT A FEW SPOTS MAINLY TOWARD DAWSON/VALLEY/SHERMAN
COUNTY AREA COULD MEASURE A QUICK FEW TENTHS OF SNOWFALL...BUT
WITH THE BETTER FOCUS REMAINING JUST NORTHWEST OF THE AREA...FELT
A SCATTERED FLURRY MENTION MIGHT BETTER CAPTURE THE BRIEF NATURE
OF ANY FALLING SNOW. AS LAPSE RATES LESSEN AFTER DARK AND THE
PRIMARY SHORTWAVE AXIS SLIDES EAST...ANY SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD
QUICKLY FADE AWAY...WITH LITTLE IF ANY RISK FOR THIS ACTIVITY
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BEYOND 03Z. TEMPERATURE WISE TONIGHT...THE
HEALTHY EVENING BREEZES SHOULD KEEP THINGS FROM DROPPING OFF VERY
QUICKLY...BUT EVENTUALLY EXPECT LOWS TO DROP INTO THE 17-21 RANGE
ACROSS MOST AREAS AS SKIES CLEAR...EXCEPT FOR SLIGHTLY COLDER READINGS
IN THE FAVORED SPOTS FROM VALLEY TOWARD DAWSON COUNTIES IN THE
WEST.
ON SATURDAY...THE MAIN CONCERN TURNS TO FIRE WEATHER...WHICH IS
COVERED IN THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW. ON THE LARGER SCALE
ALOFT...SLIGHT MID LEVEL HEIGHT RISES OCCUR AS BROAD RATHER HIGH
AMPLIFIED RIDGING DOMINATES THE WESTERN CONUS...WHILE OFF TO THE
EAST...THE PRIMARY SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY WILL
SWING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES...WHILE AN UPSTREAM
SHORTWAVE/AREA OF CHANNELED VORTICITY SLIDES OUT OF CANADA INTO
THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE
SHOULD REMAIN AT LEAST A FEW HUNDRED MILES OFF TO THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST OF THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON. IN THE LOW
LEVELS...IT WILL BE ANOTHER RATHER BREEZY LATE MORNING THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON...BUT THIS TIME FROM THE WEST. NAM FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE IMPRESSIVE MIXING TO 800-750MB DURING THE
AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH NOT ANTICIPATING ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS...SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS 30-35 MPH WILL BE
COMMON. ALTHOUGH IT WILL REMAIN RATHER COOL ALOFT WITH 850MB TEMPS
ONLY RISING INTO THE -1 TO -3C RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON...THE
DOWNSLOPE FLOW ALONG WITH NO WORSE THAN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD
MILK EVERY BIT OF WARMTH OUT OF THE AIRMASS AS POSSIBLE...AND
NUDGED HIGH TEMPERATURES UP SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST MOST
AREAS...WITH MOST NEB ZONES ADVERTISED BETWEEN 45-48...AND KS
ZONES 47-49. AS COVERED FURTHER IN THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION
BELOW...DEWPOINTS WERE LOWERED SEVERAL DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST.
LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THE MAJORITY OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE WEST/NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH
SEVERAL FAST MOVING WAVES RIPPLING THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW. THE
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT THE BULK OF THE ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVES NEVER REALLY TAKES DIRECT AIM AT THE
FORECAST AREA...AND WITH DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS...PRECIPITATION
WILL BE HARD TO GENERATE. NOT TO SAY THERE MAY NOT BE A SMALL
CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW AT SOME POINT...BUT WITHOUT ANY DECENT
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION SHOWN BY THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS...AND WITH
GEFS POPS SO LOW...WILL KEEP IT DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD STAY ON THE WARM SIDE OF
NORMAL. IN FACT...MUCH OF NEXT WEEK SHOULD SEE HIGHS NEARLY 10 TO
15 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES. THE WARMEST DAY APPEARS TO BE
MONDAY WITH H85 TEMPERATURES NEAR 10 CELSIUS AND SOME MODEL
SOLUTIONS SUGGESTING HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. HAVE NOT GONE QUITE
THAT WARM IN THE GRIDS YET...BUT DO HAVE TEMPERATURES SOLIDLY IN THE
MID 50S TO NEAR 60. THERE SHOULD BE A COOL DOWN TOWARDS THE END OF
NEXT WEEK AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
FIRE WEATHER...A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
ENTIRE CWA FROM 18Z-00Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND AN UPGRADE TO A
RED FLAG WARNING IS VERY POSSIBLE FOR AT LEAST WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE WATCH AREA LATER TONIGHT. WITH DEEP MIXING NEAR/IN EXCESS OF
800MB EXPECTED...AND NEARLY DUE WESTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS...THIS IS
A CLASSIC SET UP FOR A PRONOUNCED MIX-OUT OF DAYTIME DEW POINTS.
DESPITE SURFACE TEMPERATURES ONLY TOPPING OUT IN THE 40S...THE
ANTICIPATION OF DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS MOST
AREAS YIELDS A LARGE AREA OF AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
FALLING BETWEEN 15-23 PERCENT...ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS SOUTHWEST
OF A LINE FROM ORD TO SUPERIOR...INCLUDING NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
THE LATEST ECMWF/GFS DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS EVEN SUGGEST THAT
DEWPOINTS COULD DROP BELOW ZERO ACROSS PARTS OF THE DISTRICT...AND
ALTHOUGH DIDN/T BUY THIS FULLY YET...ITS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
IN THIS WESTERLY WIND REGIME. AT ANY RATE...EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE WATCH ARE OF LOWEST CONFIDENCE TO REACH RED FLAG
WARNING...WITH HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN THE SOUTHWEST. THE WIND
CRITERIA OF 20 MPH SUSTAINED/GUSTS TO 25 MPH ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
BE A PROBLEM...SO EVERYTHING WILL HINGE ON THE COMBINATION OF
RISING TEMPERATURES/FALLING DEWPOINTS.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...FIRE WEATHER WATCH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR NEZ039>041-046>049-
060>064-072>077-082>087.
KS...FIRE WEATHER WATCH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR KSZ005>007-017>019.
&&
$$
AVIATION/UPDATE...ROSSI
SHORT TERM/FIRE WEATHER...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...CK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
601 PM CST FRI JAN 27 2012
.UPDATE...WILL GO AHEAD AND UPDATE THE FORECAST PACKAGE TO
REFLECT THE EXPIRATION OF THE WIND ADVISORY AS WINDS CONTINUE TO
RELAX AND HAVE NOW FALLEN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. NO OTHER
CHANGES NECESSARY AT THIS TIME.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 551 PM CST FRI JAN 27 2012/
AVIATION...00Z KGRI TAF...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KGRI FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS RELAXING THIS EVENING
AND SHIFTING MORE WESTERLY OVERNIGHT. WHILE A FEW LOW/MID LEVEL
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH DIURNAL HEATING MAY PERSIST FOR A COUPLE OF
HOURS...GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES WILL BE DOMINANT OVERNIGHT...WITH
SOME HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. WINDS SATURDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE AND BECOME
GUSTY...BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS ELEVATED AS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH GENERALLY WESTERLY WINDS 15G25KTS EXPECTED AFT
28/15Z.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 421 PM CST FRI JAN 27 2012/
SHORT TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. PRIMARY CONCERNS ARE
TWO-FOLD...FIRST THE ONGOING WIND ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON...AND
THEN POTENTIAL/LIKELY FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
AT 21Z...OBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS A HEALTHY PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA...AS A 1022+MB HIGH SETTLES INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING DEEP MIXING
TO AROUND 800MB...THE WIND ADVISORY FOR ALL BUT THE FAR EASTERN
CWA HAS WORKED OUT FAIRLY WELL...WITH SEVERAL AUTOMATED AIRPORT
SITES RECORDING SUSTAINED SPEEDS NEAR/JUST OVER 30 MPH...ALTHOUGH
PEAK GUSTS HAVE LARGELY TOPPED OUT AROUND 40 MPH...MAKING THIS A
LOW-END WIND ADVISORY OVERALL. ALOFT...AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR AND
SHORT TERM MODEL DATA CONFIRMS A BROAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. WITH PRIMARY ZONE OF SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT
AND MID LEVEL SATURATION HAS BEEN OFF TO THE EAST FOR SEVERAL
HOURS NOW...WITH NO PRECIPITATION NOTED SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON
WITHIN THE CWA. TEMP WISE...HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON MET OR ONLY SLIGHTLY
EXCEEDED ORIGINAL FORECAST FROM THIS MORNING...RANGING FROM AROUND
40 IN THE NORTH TO UPPER 40S SOUTH.
LATE THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT...THE MAIN ISSUE IS THE ONGOING WIND
ADVISORY. WITH NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING A RAPID DIURNAL
DIMINISHMENT IN MIXING AROUND SUNSET...THE 00Z EXPIRATION TIME
LOOKS LIKE ON TARGET. THAT BEING SAID...IT WILL REMAIN RATHER
BREEZY WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS HOLDING
UP IN THE 15-20 MPH RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS. BY MIDNIGHT AND
THEREAFTER...SPEEDS SHOULD EASE DOWN INTO THE 5-15 MPH RANGE AND
TRANSITION MORE WESTERLY AS THE CENTER OF THE EXPANSIVE SURFACE
HIGH TO THE WEST SLIDES SOUTH. TURNING TO PRECIPITATION TRENDS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT...INTRODUCED A MENTION OF
SCATTERED/ISOLATED FLURRIES THROUGH 03Z ACROSS MOST NEB ZONES...TO
ACCOUNT FOR UPSTREAM SNOW SHOWERS NOW EVIDENT OVER WESTERN/NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THESE SNOW SHOWERS ARE A CLASSIC CASE OF PARTIAL
SUNSHINE ACTING UPON STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES UNDER THE COLD
POCKET ALOFT...WITH THE LATEST SPC RUC MESOANALYSIS INDICATING 0-3KM
LAPSE RATES NOW IN THE 7.5-8.5 C/KM RANGE. SHORT TERM HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR AND 4KM WRF-NMM HAVE HAD A GOOD
HANDLE ON THIS SNOW SHOWER/FLURRY ACTIVITY ALL DAY NOW...WITH THE
HRRR AND RADAR TRENDS CONFIRMING THAT THE WESTERN 1/2 OF THE CWA
IS MOST AT RISK FOR CATCHING SOME OF THIS FAST-MOVING ACTIVITY.
STRONGLY CONSIDERED ADDING A LOW MEASURABLE POP TO ACCOUNT FOR
POSSIBILITY THAT A FEW SPOTS MAINLY TOWARD DAWSON/VALLEY/SHERMAN
COUNTY AREA COULD MEASURE A QUICK FEW TENTHS OF SNOWFALL...BUT
WITH THE BETTER FOCUS REMAINING JUST NORTHWEST OF THE AREA...FELT
A SCATTERED FLURRY MENTION MIGHT BETTER CAPTURE THE BRIEF NATURE
OF ANY FALLING SNOW. AS LAPSE RATES LESSEN AFTER DARK AND THE
PRIMARY SHORTWAVE AXIS SLIDES EAST...ANY SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD
QUICKLY FADE AWAY...WITH LITTLE IF ANY RISK FOR THIS ACTIVITY
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BEYOND 03Z. TEMPERATURE WISE TONIGHT...THE
HEALTHY EVENING BREEZES SHOULD KEEP THINGS FROM DROPPING OFF VERY
QUICKLY...BUT EVENTUALLY EXPECT LOWS TO DROP INTO THE 17-21 RANGE
ACROSS MOST AREAS AS SKIES CLEAR...EXCEPT FOR SLIGHTLY COLDER READINGS
IN THE FAVORED SPOTS FROM VALLEY TOWARD DAWSON COUNTIES IN THE
WEST.
ON SATURDAY...THE MAIN CONCERN TURNS TO FIRE WEATHER...WHICH IS
COVERED IN THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW. ON THE LARGER SCALE
ALOFT...SLIGHT MID LEVEL HEIGHT RISES OCCUR AS BROAD RATHER HIGH
AMPLIFIED RIDGING DOMINATES THE WESTERN CONUS...WHILE OFF TO THE
EAST...THE PRIMARY SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY WILL
SWING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES...WHILE AN UPSTREAM
SHORTWAVE/AREA OF CHANNELED VORTICITY SLIDES OUT OF CANADA INTO
THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE
SHOULD REMAIN AT LEAST A FEW HUNDRED MILES OFF TO THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST OF THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON. IN THE LOW
LEVELS...IT WILL BE ANOTHER RATHER BREEZY LATE MORNING THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON...BUT THIS TIME FROM THE WEST. NAM FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE IMPRESSIVE MIXING TO 800-750MB DURING THE
AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH NOT ANTICIPATING ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS...SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS 30-35 MPH WILL BE
COMMON. ALTHOUGH IT WILL REMAIN RATHER COOL ALOFT WITH 850MB TEMPS
ONLY RISING INTO THE -1 TO -3C RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON...THE
DOWNSLOPE FLOW ALONG WITH NO WORSE THAN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD
MILK EVERY BIT OF WARMTH OUT OF THE AIRMASS AS POSSIBLE...AND
NUDGED HIGH TEMPERATURES UP SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST MOST
AREAS...WITH MOST NEB ZONES ADVERTISED BETWEEN 45-48...AND KS
ZONES 47-49. AS COVERED FURTHER IN THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION
BELOW...DEWPOINTS WERE LOWERED SEVERAL DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST.
LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THE MAJORITY OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE WEST/NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH
SEVERAL FAST MOVING WAVES RIPPLING THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW. THE
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT THE BULK OF THE ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVES NEVER REALLY TAKES DIRECT AIM AT THE
FORECAST AREA...AND WITH DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS...PRECIPITATION
WILL BE HARD TO GENERATE. NOT TO SAY THERE MAY NOT BE A SMALL
CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW AT SOME POINT...BUT WITHOUT ANY DECENT
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION SHOWN BY THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS...AND WITH
GEFS POPS SO LOW...WILL KEEP IT DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD STAY ON THE WARM SIDE OF
NORMAL. IN FACT...MUCH OF NEXT WEEK SHOULD SEE HIGHS NEARLY 10 TO
15 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES. THE WARMEST DAY APPEARS TO BE
MONDAY WITH H85 TEMPERATURES NEAR 10 CELSIUS AND SOME MODEL
SOLUTIONS SUGGESTING HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. HAVE NOT GONE QUITE
THAT WARM IN THE GRIDS YET...BUT DO HAVE TEMPERATURES SOLIDLY IN THE
MID 50S TO NEAR 60. THERE SHOULD BE A COOL DOWN TOWARDS THE END OF
NEXT WEEK AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
FIRE WEATHER...A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
ENTIRE CWA FROM 18Z-00Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND AN UPGRADE TO A
RED FLAG WARNING IS VERY POSSIBLE FOR AT LEAST WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE WATCH AREA LATER TONIGHT. WITH DEEP MIXING NEAR/IN EXCESS OF
800MB EXPECTED...AND NEARLY DUE WESTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS...THIS IS
A CLASSIC SET UP FOR A PRONOUNCED MIX-OUT OF DAYTIME DEW POINTS.
DESPITE SURFACE TEMPERATURES ONLY TOPPING OUT IN THE 40S...THE
ANTICIPATION OF DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS MOST
AREAS YIELDS A LARGE AREA OF AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
FALLING BETWEEN 15-23 PERCENT...ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS SOUTHWEST
OF A LINE FROM ORD TO SUPERIOR...INCLUDING NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
THE LATEST ECMWF/GFS DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS EVEN SUGGEST THAT
DEWPOINTS COULD DROP BELOW ZERO ACROSS PARTS OF THE DISTRICT...AND
ALTHOUGH DIDN/T BUY THIS FULLY YET...ITS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
IN THIS WESTERLY WIND REGIME. AT ANY RATE...EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE WATCH ARE OF LOWEST CONFIDENCE TO REACH RED FLAG
WARNING...WITH HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN THE SOUTHWEST. THE WIND
CRITERIA OF 20 MPH SUSTAINED/GUSTS TO 25 MPH ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
BE A PROBLEM...SO EVERYTHING WILL HINGE ON THE COMBINATION OF
RISING TEMPERATURES/FALLING DEWPOINTS.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...FIRE WEATHER WATCH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR NEZ039>041-046>049-
060>064-072>077-082>087.
KS...FIRE WEATHER WATCH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR KSZ005>007-017>019.
&&
$$
AVIATION/UPDATE...ROSSI
SHORT TERM/FIRE WEATHER...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...CK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
551 PM CST FRI JAN 27 2012
.AVIATION...00Z KGRI TAF...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KGRI FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS RELAXING THIS EVENING
AND SHIFTING MORE WESTERLY OVERNIGHT. WHILE A FEW LOW/MID LEVEL
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH DIURNAL HEATING MAY PERSIST FOR A COUPLE OF
HOURS...GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES WILL BE DOMINANT OVERNIGHT...WITH
SOME HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. WINDS SATURDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE AND BECOME
GUSTY...BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS ELEVATED AS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH GENERALLY WESTERLY WINDS 15G25KTS EXPECTED AFT
28/15Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 421 PM CST FRI JAN 27 2012/
SHORT TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. PRIMARY CONCERNS ARE
TWO-FOLD...FIRST THE ONGOING WIND ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON...AND
THEN POTENTIAL/LIKELY FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
AT 21Z...OBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS A HEALTHY PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA...AS A 1022+MB HIGH SETTLES INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING DEEP MIXING
TO AROUND 800MB...THE WIND ADVISORY FOR ALL BUT THE FAR EASTERN
CWA HAS WORKED OUT FAIRLY WELL...WITH SEVERAL AUTOMATED AIRPORT
SITES RECORDING SUSTAINED SPEEDS NEAR/JUST OVER 30 MPH...ALTHOUGH
PEAK GUSTS HAVE LARGELY TOPPED OUT AROUND 40 MPH...MAKING THIS A
LOW-END WIND ADVISORY OVERALL. ALOFT...AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR AND
SHORT TERM MODEL DATA CONFIRMS A BROAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. WITH PRIMARY ZONE OF SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT
AND MID LEVEL SATURATION HAS BEEN OFF TO THE EAST FOR SEVERAL
HOURS NOW...WITH NO PRECIPITATION NOTED SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON
WITHIN THE CWA. TEMP WISE...HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON MET OR ONLY SLIGHTLY
EXCEEDED ORIGINAL FORECAST FROM THIS MORNING...RANGING FROM AROUND
40 IN THE NORTH TO UPPER 40S SOUTH.
LATE THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT...THE MAIN ISSUE IS THE ONGOING WIND
ADVISORY. WITH NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING A RAPID DIURNAL
DIMINISHMENT IN MIXING AROUND SUNSET...THE 00Z EXPIRATION TIME
LOOKS LIKE ON TARGET. THAT BEING SAID...IT WILL REMAIN RATHER
BREEZY WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS HOLDING
UP IN THE 15-20 MPH RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS. BY MIDNIGHT AND
THEREAFTER...SPEEDS SHOULD EASE DOWN INTO THE 5-15 MPH RANGE AND
TRANSITION MORE WESTERLY AS THE CENTER OF THE EXPANSIVE SURFACE
HIGH TO THE WEST SLIDES SOUTH. TURNING TO PRECIPITATION TRENDS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT...INTRODUCED A MENTION OF
SCATTERED/ISOLATED FLURRIES THROUGH 03Z ACROSS MOST NEB ZONES...TO
ACCOUNT FOR UPSTREAM SNOW SHOWERS NOW EVIDENT OVER WESTERN/NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THESE SNOW SHOWERS ARE A CLASSIC CASE OF PARTIAL
SUNSHINE ACTING UPON STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES UNDER THE COLD
POCKET ALOFT...WITH THE LATEST SPC RUC MESOANALYSIS INDICATING 0-3KM
LAPSE RATES NOW IN THE 7.5-8.5 C/KM RANGE. SHORT TERM HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR AND 4KM WRF-NMM HAVE HAD A GOOD
HANDLE ON THIS SNOW SHOWER/FLURRY ACTIVITY ALL DAY NOW...WITH THE
HRRR AND RADAR TRENDS CONFIRMING THAT THE WESTERN 1/2 OF THE CWA
IS MOST AT RISK FOR CATCHING SOME OF THIS FAST-MOVING ACTIVITY.
STRONGLY CONSIDERED ADDING A LOW MEASURABLE POP TO ACCOUNT FOR
POSSIBILITY THAT A FEW SPOTS MAINLY TOWARD DAWSON/VALLEY/SHERMAN
COUNTY AREA COULD MEASURE A QUICK FEW TENTHS OF SNOWFALL...BUT
WITH THE BETTER FOCUS REMAINING JUST NORTHWEST OF THE AREA...FELT
A SCATTERED FLURRY MENTION MIGHT BETTER CAPTURE THE BRIEF NATURE
OF ANY FALLING SNOW. AS LAPSE RATES LESSEN AFTER DARK AND THE
PRIMARY SHORTWAVE AXIS SLIDES EAST...ANY SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD
QUICKLY FADE AWAY...WITH LITTLE IF ANY RISK FOR THIS ACTIVITY
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BEYOND 03Z. TEMPERATURE WISE TONIGHT...THE
HEALTHY EVENING BREEZES SHOULD KEEP THINGS FROM DROPPING OFF VERY
QUICKLY...BUT EVENTUALLY EXPECT LOWS TO DROP INTO THE 17-21 RANGE
ACROSS MOST AREAS AS SKIES CLEAR...EXCEPT FOR SLIGHTLY COLDER READINGS
IN THE FAVORED SPOTS FROM VALLEY TOWARD DAWSON COUNTIES IN THE
WEST.
ON SATURDAY...THE MAIN CONCERN TURNS TO FIRE WEATHER...WHICH IS
COVERED IN THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW. ON THE LARGER SCALE
ALOFT...SLIGHT MID LEVEL HEIGHT RISES OCCUR AS BROAD RATHER HIGH
AMPLIFIED RIDGING DOMINATES THE WESTERN CONUS...WHILE OFF TO THE
EAST...THE PRIMARY SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY WILL
SWING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES...WHILE AN UPSTREAM
SHORTWAVE/AREA OF CHANNELED VORTICITY SLIDES OUT OF CANADA INTO
THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE
SHOULD REMAIN AT LEAST A FEW HUNDRED MILES OFF TO THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST OF THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON. IN THE LOW
LEVELS...IT WILL BE ANOTHER RATHER BREEZY LATE MORNING THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON...BUT THIS TIME FROM THE WEST. NAM FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE IMPRESSIVE MIXING TO 800-750MB DURING THE
AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH NOT ANTICIPATING ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS...SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS 30-35 MPH WILL BE
COMMON. ALTHOUGH IT WILL REMAIN RATHER COOL ALOFT WITH 850MB TEMPS
ONLY RISING INTO THE -1 TO -3C RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON...THE
DOWNSLOPE FLOW ALONG WITH NO WORSE THAN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD
MILK EVERY BIT OF WARMTH OUT OF THE AIRMASS AS POSSIBLE...AND
NUDGED HIGH TEMPERATURES UP SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST MOST
AREAS...WITH MOST NEB ZONES ADVERTISED BETWEEN 45-48...AND KS
ZONES 47-49. AS COVERED FURTHER IN THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION
BELOW...DEWPOINTS WERE LOWERED SEVERAL DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST.
LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THE MAJORITY OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE WEST/NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH
SEVERAL FAST MOVING WAVES RIPPLING THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW. THE
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT THE BULK OF THE ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVES NEVER REALLY TAKES DIRECT AIM AT THE
FORECAST AREA...AND WITH DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS...PRECIPITATION
WILL BE HARD TO GENERATE. NOT TO SAY THERE MAY NOT BE A SMALL
CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW AT SOME POINT...BUT WITHOUT ANY DECENT
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION SHOWN BY THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS...AND WITH
GEFS POPS SO LOW...WILL KEEP IT DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD STAY ON THE WARM SIDE OF
NORMAL. IN FACT...MUCH OF NEXT WEEK SHOULD SEE HIGHS NEARLY 10 TO
15 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES. THE WARMEST DAY APPEARS TO BE
MONDAY WITH H85 TEMPERATURES NEAR 10 CELSIUS AND SOME MODEL
SOLUTIONS SUGGESTING HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. HAVE NOT GONE QUITE
THAT WARM IN THE GRIDS YET...BUT DO HAVE TEMPERATURES SOLIDLY IN THE
MID 50S TO NEAR 60. THERE SHOULD BE A COOL DOWN TOWARDS THE END OF
NEXT WEEK AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
FIRE WEATHER...A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
ENTIRE CWA FROM 18Z-00Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND AN UPGRADE TO A
RED FLAG WARNING IS VERY POSSIBLE FOR AT LEAST WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE WATCH AREA LATER TONIGHT. WITH DEEP MIXING NEAR/IN EXCESS OF
800MB EXPECTED...AND NEARLY DUE WESTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS...THIS IS
A CLASSIC SET UP FOR A PRONOUNCED MIX-OUT OF DAYTIME DEW POINTS.
DESPITE SURFACE TEMPERATURES ONLY TOPPING OUT IN THE 40S...THE
ANTICIPATION OF DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS MOST
AREAS YIELDS A LARGE AREA OF AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
FALLING BETWEEN 15-23 PERCENT...ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS SOUTHWEST
OF A LINE FROM ORD TO SUPERIOR...INCLUDING NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
THE LATEST ECMWF/GFS DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS EVEN SUGGEST THAT
DEWPOINTS COULD DROP BELOW ZERO ACROSS PARTS OF THE DISTRICT...AND
ALTHOUGH DIDN/T BUY THIS FULLY YET...ITS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
IN THIS WESTERLY WIND REGIME. AT ANY RATE...EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE WATCH ARE OF LOWEST CONFIDENCE TO REACH RED FLAG
WARNING...WITH HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN THE SOUTHWEST. THE WIND
CRITERIA OF 20 MPH SUSTAINED/GUSTS TO 25 MPH ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
BE A PROBLEM...SO EVERYTHING WILL HINGE ON THE COMBINATION OF
RISING TEMPERATURES/FALLING DEWPOINTS.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...FIRE WEATHER WATCH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR NEZ039>041-046>049-
060>064-072>077-082>087.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NEZ039>041-046>048-
060>063-072>076-082>086.
KS...FIRE WEATHER WATCH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR KSZ005>007-017>019.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR KSZ005>007-017>019.
&&
$$
AVIATION...ROSSI
SHORT TERM/FIRE WEATHER...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...CK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
104 PM EST THU JAN 26 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION OVER
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY AS RAIN.
HOWEVER...IN THE CATSKILLS AND MOHAWK VALLEY OF NEW YORK...LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS OF ICE AND SNOW ARE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. ON SATURDAY...MIXED RAIN AND SNOW IS POSSIBLE AS A
WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSES. A COLD FRONT LATE SUNDAY WILL BRING
COLDER AIR AND A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES...LASTING
INTO MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATED AT 1200 PM... TRICKY FORECAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS
STEADIER PRECIPITATION IS OVERSPREADING THE AREA WITH MARGINAL
THERMAL PROFILES FOR SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN AND RAIN. CURRENT
CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHERN PA AND SOUTHERN NY INCLUDE REPORTS OF
JUST ABOUT ALL TYPES OF PCPN. LATEST RUC PROFILES INDICATE
LOCATIONS SUCH AS ELM AND BGM WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW OR
SLEET UNTIL ABOUT 3 PM. FREEZING RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...
MAINLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OVER SOUTHERN NY AS THE PROFILE WARMS
BUT TEMPERATURES HOLD NEAR 32 FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS. PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE MAINLY RAIN BY LATE AFTERNOON FOR ALL AREAS ALONG AND
WEST OF I-81. MEANWHILE... EXPECT MAINLY RAIN IN THE WILKES-BARRE
/ SCRANTON AREA THROUGH PIKE COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON... EXCEPT FOR
MAYBE A LITTLE SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.
ALSO AM EXPECTING MAINLY RAIN IN THE LAKE PLAIN FROM PENN YAN TO
SYRACUSE... WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE
FREEZING.
BASED ON THIS HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP THE ADVISORY FOR AREAS EAST OF
I-81... WHERE AN INCH OF SNOW THIS AFTERNOON WILL PROBABLY BE
FOLLOWED BY A LIGHT COATING OF FREEZING RAIN TONIGHT. FOR THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF NY DON`T EXPECT ANYTHING WORTHY OF AN ADVISORY
THIS AFTERNOON... MAYBE A LIGHT COATING OF SNOW... WITH ANY
FREEZING RAIN CONFINED TO THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.
UPDATED AT 840 AM... ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR SPOTTY
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN... SLEET AND VERY LIGHT SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF
NE PA THIS MORNING. LIGHT MIXED PRECIP HAS BEEN REPORTED THIS
MORNING FROM DUJ AND FIG TO IPT WITH RADAR SHOWING THESE ECHOES
MOVING ENE TOWARD NORTHEAST PA. TEMPERATURES IN NE PA ARE STILL A
COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW FREEZING IN MOST AREAS. EXPECT JUST SPOTTY
LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION IN THAT AREA THIS MORNING WITH AMOUNTS
NOTHING MORE THAN ONE OR TWO HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH... BUT THAT
COULD STILL BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW SLICK SPOTS.
7 AM UPDATE...MAIN CONCERN IN THE NEAR TERM IS FOR PROSPECTS OF
WINTRY MIX/FREEZING RAIN IN THE CATSKILLS...WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY...AND SOUTHERN TUG HILL PLATEAU THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT.
UPPER WAVE THROUGH TOP-DOWN MOISTENING PRODUCED A BATCH OF LIGHT
SNOW...DESPITE LACK OF QPF IN MOST MODELS. WE WERE IN THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF 500MB JET...WHICH MAY HAVE PROVIDED JUST ENOUGH
LIFT/ENHANCEMENT TO PRODUCE THE SKIFF TO SEVERAL TENTHS OF AN INCH OF
SNOW OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...THIS WAVE IS ALREADY SCOOTING
OUT...ALLOWING THE ACTIVITY TO FALL APART QUICKLY DURING THE PAST
FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...IT WILL ONLY BE A BRIEF RESPITE AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM WHICH IS ALREADY INBOUND.
MODELS ARE IN QUITE GOOD AGREEMENT FOR TIMING AND THERMAL
PROFILES. SURFACE LOW TRACKS UP OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING...REACHING
DIRECTLY OVER THE CWA BY 12Z FRIDAY. WELL OUT AHEAD OF IT...BROAD
BAROCLINIC LIFT YIELDS A LARGE SWATH OF PRECIPITATION THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. QUICK EXIT OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM NEW
ENGLAND...AND STRENGTH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION...WILL LIMIT AMOUNT
OF COLD AIR DAMMING...BUT PROFILES SUPPORT A PERIOD OF INITIAL
WINTRY MIX/FREEZING RAIN IN THE USUAL MOST VULNERABLE LOCATIONS OF
SULLIVAN-DELAWARE-OTSEGO- ONEIDA COUNTIES...BEFORE TRANSITION TO
PLAIN RAIN OVERNIGHT. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THESE ZONES. IN NORTHEAST PA AND AREAS ADJACENT TO THE
CATSKILLS...WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY BECAUSE IF PRECIPITATION
RUNS IN MORE QUICKLY THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED...PROFILES WILL BE
VERY SENSITIVE TO POSSIBLE VERY BRIEF MIX THERE AS WELL.
AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...LOOKING AT A SOLID THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH NORTHWEST TO AN INCH OR SO SOUTHEAST...THROUGH
12Z FRIDAY...WITH AN ADDITIONAL ONE TO FOUR TENTHS BEYOND THEN.
LACK OF SIGNIFICANT SNOW COVER...WILL HELP TO PREVENT THIS AMOUNT
OF RAIN FROM BEING PROBLEMATIC...THOUGH SOME STREAM RISES CAN BE
EXPECTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
DESPITE THE SURFACE LOW QUICKLY SHIFTING TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
BY MIDDAY FRIDAY...MODELS HAVE TRENDED TO A SLOWER EXIT OF
PRECIPITATION...BECAUSE OF AXIS OF DEFORMATION HANGING BACK
AWAITING PASSAGE OF UPPER TROUGH. THIS MAY ALLOW WET SNOW TO MIX
IN ON BACK EDGE OF PRECIPITATION...BEFORE IT ENDS.
REGARDLESS...EXPECTING LITTLE IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION FOR MOST
AREAS...BUT PERHAPS NEAR AN INCH IN THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES.
NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND FRIDAY...NEAR STEADY OR SLOWLY
FALLING. AS PROFILE TILTS LESS STABLE...STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL BE REALIZED AT THE SURFACE AS GUSTS ARE ABLE TO MIX DOWN.
850MB WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 35-40 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON...WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW FREQUENT SURFACE GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH OR SO...LASTING
INTO THE EVENING.
DRY FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH DECREASING CLOUDS. HOWEVER...PRESSURE
GRADIENT/MIXING WILL PREVENT RADIATIONAL COOLING...AND THUS LOWS
WILL NOT FALL BEYOND THE 20S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NOT TO MUCH TO CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. AS THE PREVIOUS
FORECASTER MENTIONED...THE H5 TROF WE ARE WAITING FOR OVER THE
WEEKEND IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH THE LONG RANGE MODELS...WITH THE
BEST SHOT AT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SETTING UP SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
BEYOND THAT WE STILL LOOK TO WARM UP AGAIN NEXT WEEK.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN CHANGE OVER THE LAST 24H HAS BEEN FOR THE MODELS TO SLOW
DOWN THE ADVANCE OF THE GREAT LAKES SHORT WAVE, AND THE CARVING
OUT OF THE NORTHEASTERN TROF. HOWEVER THE GENERAL IDEA REMAINS THE
SAME.
LATE SUNDAY A LARGE TROF WILL ROTATE OVER NY/PA, BRINGING COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO OUR REGION. HOWEVER THE
TROF IS PROGRESSIVE, AND WILL QUICKLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH
THE BEGINNING OF THE NEW WORK WEEK.
BY TUESDAY, ANOTHER WAVE DIVING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL
CARVE OUT THE PERSISTENT WEST-CENTRAL TROF. UPSTREAM RIDGING WILL
OCCUR, WITH HEIGHTS RISING THROUGH OUR FA. TEMPERATURES WILL
REBOUND INTO THE 40S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
1240 PM UPDATE...
MIXED PRECIP NOW OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NY AND NE PA WHICH WILL
PUSH ENE INTO SYR AND RME BY 20Z. AVP SHOULD BE MAINLY RAIN AND
MVFR THIS AFTN. SOME SLEET POSSIBLE FIRST 2 HOURS. REST OF SITES
STARTING AS SNOW WITH SOME IFR VSBYS ESPECIALLY HERE AT BGM. CIGS
FALLING BACK TO MVFR. SYR AND RME WILL START AS SNOW AS CONDITIONS
WORSEN. PRECIP WILL CHANGE TO ALL RAIN BY 00Z WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
THE VSBYS TO STICK AT MVFR WHILE CIGS FALL INTO SOLID MVFR. RME
WILL BE SLOWER WITH SNOW AND SLEET UNTIL AROUND 6Z BEFORE CHANGING
TO RAIN. IFR MOST LIKELY AT RME THIS AFTN AND EVE.
LATE EVE AND OVERNIGHT ALL SITES WILL HAVE CIGS DROP TO IFR WITH
MVFR VSBYS IN A STEADY RAIN AND LIGHT FOG. THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO
FRIDAY. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED AROUND 16 TO 18Z BUT DID NOT
INCLUDE YET. THIS SHOULD IMPROVE CONDITIONS BACK TO MVFR AND VFR.
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 5 TO 8 KTS THIS AFTN CONTINUING INTO
FRIDAY. TONIGHT ELM AND AVP WIND SPEEDS COULD BECOME CALM.
.OUTLOOK...
FRI NGT TO SAT MORNING...VFR WITH POSSIBLE MVFR IN FLURRIES FRI
NGT.
SAT AFTN...MVFR POSSIBLE LATE IN RAIN/SNOW...ESPECIALLY IN NY.
SAT NGT...VFR AT AVP. MVFR IN NY WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW.
SUN MORN...VFR.
SUN AFTN TO SUN EVE...MVFR/IFR WITH A COLD FRONT AND SNOW.
SUN NGT TO MON...IFR/MVFR POSSIBLE IN LAKE SNOWS..ESPECIALLY NY
TERMINALS.
MON NGT TO TUE...MVFR. SNOW TO RAIN WITH WARM FRONT.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ009-037-
046-057-062.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN/MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP/MSE
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...DJP/HEDEN
AVIATION...TAC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
1216 PM EST THU JAN 26 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WITH LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES...WILL EXIT BY
DAWN. AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN SPREAD
PRECIPITATION OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY...MAINLY AS RAIN. HOWEVER...IN THE CATSKILLS AND MOHAWK
VALLEY OF NEW YORK...LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF ICE ARE
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ON SATURDAY...MIXED
RAIN AND SNOW IS POSSIBLE AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSES. A COLD
FRONT LATE SUNDAY WILL BRING COLDER AIR AND A CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS AND FLURRIES...LASTING INTO MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATED AT 1200 PM... TRICKY FORECAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS
STEADIER PRECIPITATION IS OVERSPREADING THE AREA WITH MARGINAL
THERMAL PROFILES FOR SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN AND RAIN. CURRENT
CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHERN PA AND SOUTHERN NY INCLUDE REPORTS OF
JUST ABOUT ALL TYPES OF PCPN. LATEST RUC PROFILES INDICATE
LOCATIONS SUCH AS ELM AND BGM WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW OR
SLEET UNTIL ABOUT 3 PM. FREEZING RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...
MAINLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OVER SOUTHERN NY AS THE PROFILE WARMS
BUT TEMPERATURES HOLD NEAR 32 FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS. PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE MAINLY RAIN BY LATE AFTERNOON FOR ALL AREAS ALONG AND
WEST OF I-81. MEANWHILE... EXPECT MAINLY RAIN IN THE WILKES-BARRE
/ SCRANTON AREA THROUGH PIKE COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON... EXCEPT FOR
MAYBE A LITTLE SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.
ALSO AM EXPECTING MAINLY RAIN IN THE LAKE PLAIN FROM PENN YAN TO
SYRACUSE... WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE
FREEZING.
BASED ON THIS HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP THE ADVISORY FOR AREAS EAST OF
I-81... WHERE AN INCH OF SNOW THIS AFTERNOON WILL PROBABLY BE
FOLLOWED BY A LIGHT COATING OF FREEZING RAIN TONIGHT. FOR THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF NY DON`T EXPECT ANYTHING WORTHY OF AN ADVISORY
THIS AFTERNOON... MAYBE A LIGHT COATING OF SNOW... WITH ANY
FREEZING RAIN CONFINED TO THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.
UPDATED AT 840 AM... ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR SPOTTY
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN... SLEET AND VERY LIGHT SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF
NE PA THIS MORNING. LIGHT MIXED PRECIP HAS BEEN REPORTED THIS
MORNING FROM DUJ AND FIG TO IPT WITH RADAR SHOWING THESE ECHOES
MOVING ENE TOWARD NORTHEAST PA. TEMPERATURES IN NE PA ARE STILL A
COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW FREEZING IN MOST AREAS. EXPECT JUST SPOTTY
LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION IN THAT AREA THIS MORNING WITH AMOUNTS
NOTHING MORE THAN ONE OR TWO HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH... BUT THAT
COULD STILL BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW SLICK SPOTS.
7 AM UPDATE...MAIN CONCERN IN THE NEAR TERM IS FOR PROSPECTS OF
WINTRY MIX/FREEZING RAIN IN THE CATSKILLS...WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY...AND SOUTHERN TUG HILL PLATEAU THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT.
UPPER WAVE THROUGH TOP-DOWN MOISTENING PRODUCED A BATCH OF LIGHT
SNOW...DESPITE LACK OF QPF IN MOST MODELS. WE WERE IN THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF 500MB JET...WHICH MAY HAVE PROVIDED JUST ENOUGH
LIFT/ENHANCEMENT TO PRODUCE THE SKIFF TO SEVERAL TENTHS OF AN INCH OF
SNOW OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...THIS WAVE IS ALREADY SCOOTING
OUT...ALLOWING THE ACTIVITY TO FALL APART QUICKLY DURING THE PAST
FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...IT WILL ONLY BE A BRIEF RESPITE AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM WHICH IS ALREADY INBOUND.
MODELS ARE IN QUITE GOOD AGREEMENT FOR TIMING AND THERMAL
PROFILES. SURFACE LOW TRACKS UP OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING...REACHING
DIRECTLY OVER THE CWA BY 12Z FRIDAY. WELL OUT AHEAD OF IT...BROAD
BAROCLINIC LIFT YIELDS A LARGE SWATH OF PRECIPITATION THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. QUICK EXIT OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM NEW
ENGLAND...AND STRENGTH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION...WILL LIMIT AMOUNT
OF COLD AIR DAMMING...BUT PROFILES SUPPORT A PERIOD OF INITIAL
WINTRY MIX/FREEZING RAIN IN THE USUAL MOST VULNERABLE LOCATIONS OF
SULLIVAN-DELAWARE-OTSEGO- ONEIDA COUNTIES...BEFORE TRANSITION TO
PLAIN RAIN OVERNIGHT. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THESE ZONES. IN NORTHEAST PA AND AREAS ADJACENT TO THE
CATSKILLS...WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY BECAUSE IF PRECIPITATION
RUNS IN MORE QUICKLY THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED...PROFILES WILL BE
VERY SENSITIVE TO POSSIBLE VERY BRIEF MIX THERE AS WELL.
AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...LOOKING AT A SOLID THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH NORTHWEST TO AN INCH OR SO SOUTHEAST...THROUGH
12Z FRIDAY...WITH AN ADDITIONAL ONE TO FOUR TENTHS BEYOND THEN.
LACK OF SIGNIFICANT SNOW COVER...WILL HELP TO PREVENT THIS AMOUNT
OF RAIN FROM BEING PROBLEMATIC...THOUGH SOME STREAM RISES CAN BE
EXPECTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
DESPITE THE SURFACE LOW QUICKLY SHIFTING TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
BY MIDDAY FRIDAY...MODELS HAVE TRENDED TO A SLOWER EXIT OF
PRECIPITATION...BECAUSE OF AXIS OF DEFORMATION HANGING BACK
AWAITING PASSAGE OF UPPER TROUGH. THIS MAY ALLOW WET SNOW TO MIX
IN ON BACK EDGE OF PRECIPITATION...BEFORE IT ENDS.
REGARDLESS...EXPECTING LITTLE IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION FOR MOST
AREAS...BUT PERHAPS NEAR AN INCH IN THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES.
NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND FRIDAY...NEAR STEADY OR SLOWLY
FALLING. AS PROFILE TILTS LESS STABLE...STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL BE REALIZED AT THE SURFACE AS GUSTS ARE ABLE TO MIX DOWN.
850MB WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 35-40 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON...WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW FREQUENT SURFACE GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH OR SO...LASTING
INTO THE EVENING.
DRY FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH DECREASING CLOUDS. HOWEVER...PRESSURE
GRADIENT/MIXING WILL PREVENT RADIATIONAL COOLING...AND THUS LOWS
WILL NOT FALL BEYOND THE 20S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NOT TO MUCH TO CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. AS THE PREVIOUS
FORECASTER MENTIONED...THE H5 TROF WE ARE WAITING FOR OVER THE
WEEKEND IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH THE LONG RANGE MODELS...WITH THE
BEST SHOT AT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SETTING UP SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
BEYOND THAT WE STILL LOOK TO WARM UP AGAIN NEXT WEEK.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN CHANGE OVER THE LAST 24H HAS BEEN FOR THE MODELS TO SLOW
DOWN THE ADVANCE OF THE GREAT LAKES SHORT WAVE, AND THE CARVING
OUT OF THE NORTHEASTERN TROF. HOWEVER THE GENERAL IDEA REMAINS THE
SAME.
LATE SUNDAY A LARGE TROF WILL ROTATE OVER NY/PA, BRINGING COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO OUR REGION. HOWEVER THE
TROF IS PROGRESSIVE, AND WILL QUICKLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH
THE BEGINNING OF THE NEW WORK WEEK.
BY TUESDAY, ANOTHER WAVE DIVING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL
CARVE OUT THE PERSISTENT WEST-CENTRAL TROF. UPSTREAM RIDGING WILL
OCCUR, WITH HEIGHTS RISING THROUGH OUR FA. TEMPERATURES WILL
REBOUND INTO THE 40S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
7 AM UPDATE...
THE BIGGEST AVIATION CONCERN THIS MORNING IS ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHERN TERMINALS AND ESPECIALLY AT KRME. IFR CIGS AT KRME ARE
MOST PROBLEMATIC AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT MID-
MORNING BEFORE LIFTING TO MVFR. AT KSYR...MVFR CIGS NOW WILL
LIKELY LIFT BY ABOUT 14Z BASED ON OBS. TO OUR WEST. ASIDE FROM
ANOTHER HOUR OR SO OF MVFR VSBYS AT KBGM IN MIST...GENERALLY VFR
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDDAY ELSEWHERE.
TIMING OF PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON STILL LOOKS ON TRACK WITH
AN ARRIVAL AT KAVP/KELM BETWEEN 17Z AND 19Z...20Z/21Z AT
KBGM/KITH...AND TOWARD 23Z FAR NORTH. MOSTLY RAIN EXPECTED BUT
WITH AN ISOTHERMAL COLUMN THE PRECIP MAY START OUT AS SNOW AT KRME
AND KBGM BRIEFLY. STILL THINKING THAT KRME HAS THE BEST SHOT AT SEEING
THE BIGGEST IMPACT OF ANY TERMINAL FOR MIXED PRECIP. EVEN HERE
THOUGH SURFACE TEMPS LOOK TO BE ABOVE FREEZING SO I REMOVED THE
MENTION OF FREEZING RAIN AND INSTEAD OPTED FOR A 2 HOUR TEMPO
GROUP OF RA/SN AND LOWERED VSBYS TO IFR TO REFLECT THE SNOW
CHANCE.
RAIN TONIGHT ALL TERMINALS WITH MVFR TO IFR AT THE ELEVATED SITES.
.OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT THRU FRI...MVFR/IFR IN RAIN.
SAT...MVFR POSSIBLE LATE IN RAIN/SNOW.
SUN/MON...IFR/MVFR POSSIBLE IN LAKE SNOWS..ESPECIALLY NY TERMINALS.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ009-037-
046-057-062.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN/MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP/MSE
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...DJP/HEDEN
AVIATION...HEDEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
924 AM EST THU JAN 26 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. A WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS FROM THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 915 AM THURS...EXTENDED MENTION OF DENSE FOG FOR FAR INLAND
COUNTIES FROM DUPLIN TO MARTIN THROUGH WESTERN BEUFORT COUNTIES
UNTIL 16Z...AS BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING IS TAKING A BIT LONGER THAN
EXPECTED. AREA OF STRONGER MID LEVEL WAA/VORTICITY IS BRINGING A
BATCH OF LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHERN COAST OF NC. RUC GUIDANCE
INDICATES THIS AREA OF ENERGY WILL MOVE NORTH NORTHEAST AND SLOWLY
WEAKEN THROUGH THE MORNING. BUMPED UP POPS TO SCT ALONG THE COAST
TO ISOLATED FOR INLAND AREAS AS THIS FEATURE MOVES NORTH. THIS
BATCH OF RAIN SHOULD ALSO CAUSE DENSE FOG TO DISSPATE THROUGH 16Z.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WENT A FEW DEGREES ABOVE BLENDED
BIAS-CORRECTED MOS GIVEN STRONG WAA. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES
INCREASE TO 1370-1375 METERS THIS AFTERNOON WHICH ALSO SUGGEST
TEMPS IN THE LOW 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 425 AM THURS...COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THIS
EVENING THEN CROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND GUST NEAR
20 MPH OVERNIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE WARM GIVEN SIGNIFICANT WAA AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT...WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S ACROSS EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...SHARP MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE
REGION ON FRIDAY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF MUCH-NEEDED RAINFALL TO
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. RAIN WILL ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
DAY FRIDAY WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z AND
18Z...COINCIDENT WITH THE MOST IMPRESSIVE 850 MB THETA-E RIDGING
AND DEEP MOISTURE FLUX/PRECIPITABLE WATER AXIS. INSTABILITY IS
STILL RATHER MARGINAL...BUT WILL MENTION SOME ISOLATED THUNDER
EMBEDDED IN THE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL...GIVEN CROSS-TOTAL IN THE MID
20S...NORMALLY A GOOD INDICATOR OF ELEVATED THUNDER. GUSTY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PUSH MAX TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 70
DESPITE THE CLOUDS AND PRECIP. QPF TOTAL SHOULD BE IN THE ONE
THIRD TO ONE HALF INCH RANGE...NOTHING TERRIBLY HEAVY BUT MUCH
NEEDED GIVEN THE D-1 DROUGHT STATUS FOR MUCH OF EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA. GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF THAT BULK OF PRECIP
WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BY 18Z TO 21Z FRIDAY WITH GRADUAL CLEARING
OVERNIGHT. ANTICIPATE CLEAR AND COOLER CONDITIONS SATURDAY AND
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS EAST OVER THE
CAROLINAS. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 30S SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY MORNING...AND LIKELY TO BELOW FREEZING OVER MANY AREAS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNING. DAYTIME HIGHS THRU THE PERIOD WILL
REMAIN NEAR THE NORMAL VALUE IN THE 50S.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 715 AM THURS...FOG/LOW STRATUS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 13-14Z
ACROSS ALL TAF SITES. CLEAR SKIES WILL HELP TO INDUCE MIXING OUT
OF FOG/LOW STRATUS THIS MORNING. VFR EXPECTED TODAY AND THIS
EVENING WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING NEAR 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON
AS MIXING WILL BE ENHANCED DUE TO 30 KT LOW LEVEL JET. BUFKIT
MOMENTUM TRANSPORT VALUES ALSO RANGE 18-22 KNOTS.
WINDS WILL REMAIN 5-10 KNOTS FROM THE S/SSW TONIGHT AHEAD A COLD
FRONT PROGGED TO CROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH FRI
MORNING. LOW STRATUS IS AGAIN EXPECTED TONIGHT GIVEN MOISTENING
BOUNDARY LAYER WITH SHOWERS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AROUND 06Z. GUIDANCE
IS ALSO HITTING REDUCED VISIBILITIES AS LOW AS 1SM BUT EXPECT
SURFACE WINDS TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO INHIBIT FOG RESTRICTIONS LESS
THAN 2SM. LATEST NAM12/GFS40 AND LOCAL WRF INDICATE SHOWERS WILL
BEGIN IMPACTING ISO/PGV AROUND 08Z THEN OAJ/EWN AROUND 09Z.
/LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 305 AM THURSDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED
TSTMS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY...EXPECT MVFR WITH SOME BOUTS OF IFR THRU
LATE AFTERNOON. BEYOND FRIDAY EVENING...EXPECT LARGELY VFR
CONDITIONS WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE CAROLINAS.
THERE COULD BE THE USUAL LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING GROUND FOG
THAT COULD CAUSE TEMPORARY REDUCTIONS IN VSBYS.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 720 AM THURS...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS WITH SEAS 1 TO 3 FT. WEAK
COASTAL TROUGH PERSISTS ACROSS THE OUTER BANKS AND NEAR SHORE COASTAL
WATERS BASED ON SURFACE AND SATELLITE WINDS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. A
02Z ASCAT WINDS PASS ILLUSTRATED THE TROUGH WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS
AROUND 10-15 KNOTS AROUND 20 NMI OFF THE COAST. GOOD BOATING
CONDITIONS ON TAP FOR TODAY WITH SEAS 1 TO 3 FT AND WINDS SHIFTING
SOUTH AND INCREASING TO 10-15 KNOTS LATE. THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN LATER THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
PROGGED TO CROSS THE WATERS 09-15Z FRI MORNING. WINDS WILL
INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATE TONIGHT TO SCA LEVELS...WITH
GUSTS ABOVE 25 KNOTS EXPECTED FOR THE PAMLICO SOUND. SWAN BUILT
SEAS TOO QUICKLY...WHICH IS TYPICAL...SO USED WAVEWATCH III FOR
THE BEGINNING OF THE EVENT THEN TRANSITIONED TO SWAN GIVEN ITS
PREFERRED WIND FIELD AND WAVEWATCH III WINDS SLIGHTLY TOO HIGH. SEAS
WILL BUILD 7 TO 10 FT FOR THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS WITH 5
TO 8 FT FOR THE NORTHERN LEG.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM THURSDAY...STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF
THE FRONTAL SYSTEM ON FRIDAY WILL BUILD SEAS TO AS HIGH AS 10 TO
11 FEET DURING THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MIDDLE MARINE
ZONES. EXPECT GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS AT TIMES ON FRIDAY. WINDS VEER TO
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH ALTHOUGH SEAS REMAIN AROUND 6 FEET UNTIL THE EXPIRATION
OF THE SCA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND INTO MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST OVER THE CAROLINAS
WITH GENERALLY 2 TO 4 FOOT SEAS AND WINDS AT OR BELOW 15 KNOTS.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM FRIDAY TO 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
AMZ152-154-156-158.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO 4 AM EST SATURDAY
FOR AMZ150.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...DAG/TL
SHORT TERM...DAG
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...DAG/CTC
MARINE...DAG/CTC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
949 PM EST FRI JAN 27 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION
SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ON SUNDAY. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
LATEST RUC HAS LIGHT SNOW REACHING NW OH AROUND 09Z AND THE I-71
CORRIDOR AROUND 12Z. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE
ON THIS AND HAVE MADE ONLY A FEW CHANGES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
EXPECT SNOW WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST IN THE
MORNING. MODELS HAVE DEEP MOISTURE SWINGING ACROSS THE AREA WITH
THE SHORT WAVE SO WOULD EXPECT A PERIOD OF SNOW WITH BEST CHANCES
WEST IN THE MORNING AND EAST AFTERNOON. EXPECT ACCUMS TO BE
ROUGHLY AN INCH OR LESS ALTHOUGH NWRN PA COULD SEE A COUPLE.
SHOULD SEE A QUICK BREAK SATURDAY NIGHT BUT BY 12Z SUNDAY MODELS
HAVE THE NEXT WAVE ALREADY MOVING INTO NWRN OHIO. WEST WITH HIGH
CHANCE OR LIKELY POPS. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL KEEP A CHANCE ACROSS NERN
OHIO AND NWRN PA DUE TO THE LAKE. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN
FOR MONDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BY LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD
AND ALLOWS A WARM FRONT TO LIFT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WITH
THE WARM FRONT NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON THIS
WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB TO ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...AND JUST SLIGHTLY COOLER ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM
THURSDAY. THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY...THEN POSSIBLY MIXED ON THURSDAY. FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COMES OUT OF THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY REGION BRINGS SOME ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION.
THIS TIME THE AIR MASS JUST MIGHT BE COLD ENOUGH TO GET SOME
MEASURABLE SNOW FROM THIS EVENT. MODELS STILL SHOWING SOME
DIFFERENCES AS WE GET INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
AND HIGHS 35 TO 40 ON THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STRATOCU IS SCATTERING OUT FROM WEST TO EAST WITH THE CLEARING TREND
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL
SPREAD BACK IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT AND LOWER AS THE NEXT TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE STATE. A FEW HOURS OF SNOW ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS ALL TAF SITES...REACHING
TOL AROUND 12Z AND ERI AROUND 17Z. MINOR ACCUMULATIONS UP TO AN INCH
ARE EXPECTED WITH 2-4 HOURS OF IFR CONDITIONS. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE INTO SATURDAY...BECOMING STRONG BEHIND THE FRONT WITH GUSTS
TO 30+ KNOTS. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
CLOUDS QUICKLY LIFTING TO 3000-4000 FEET.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN ON SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF SNOW...LASTING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE SNOW BELT. A
BRIEF PERIOD OF NON-VFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
STILL LOOKS LIKE SCA CONDITIONS WILL SUBSIDE FOR A WHILE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SAT THEN RAMP UP SAT MORNING THEN TO GALES WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE FIRST OF TWO COLD FRONTS THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH SAT
AND AGAIN SUN. THE WINDS WITH THE FRONT SUN DON`T LOOK AS STRONG AS
ON SAT SO PROBABLY JUST A SCA SITUATION WHICH IS TYPICAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. TO KEEP THINGS LESS CONFUSING WILL JUST GO WITH THE
GALE WARNING WITH THE 330 PM FORECAST PACKAGE SINCE THIS IS BY FAR
THE MOST SIGNIFICANT ISSUE OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
WINDS SHOULD BACK TO SSW MON BUT WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO 15 TO 25
MON NIGHT SO DOUBT IF SCA WILL BE TAKEN DOWN THROUGH WED AS WINDS
LIKELY TO REMAIN 15 TO 25 KNOTS OR BETTER WHILE FINALLY VEERING TO
WEST ON WED WITH THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LEZ061-
142>149-162>169.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...ADAMS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1020 AM CST THU JAN 26 2012
.SHORT TERM...TODAY
1013 AM CST THU JAN 26 2012
THE DENSE FOG HAS DISSIPATED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING.
DUE TO THIS...THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. SOME MID
CLOUDS HAVE MOVED INTO SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA AHEAD
OF THE ADVANCING SHORT WAVE TROUGH...AND THEN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
AND MODELS SUGGEST THAT SKIES WILL ONCE AGAIN CLEAR AS SUBSIDENCE
MOVES INTO THE REGION. THE CLOUD FORECAST ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN
IS A BIT MORE COMPLICATED DUE TO THE MORNING STRATUS AND MID
CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER THINKING THAT THERE SHOULD BE
A BIT OF SUNSHINE DURING THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THIS AREA.
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
335 AM CST THU JAN 26 2012
26.00Z GFS/ECMWF SHOWING COLDER CYCLONIC FLOW LINGERING ACROSS THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. LOOKS LIKE LIGHT SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A
COUPLE MID-LEVEL TROUGH ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA. LOOK FOR HIGHS
SUNDAY IN THE 15 TO 20 DEGREE RANGE. WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH THE
WAVE ON MONDAY EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HIGHS IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S.
MODELS THEN SHOW MORE OF A HIGH ZONAL FLOW TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY WHICH
BRINGS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION ON TUESDAY. ENOUGH WARM AIR LOOKS TO BE PRESENT
WITH THIS SYSTEM ON TUESDAY FOR A CHANCE OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX.
&&
.AVIATION...
615 AM CST THU JAN 26 2012
CLOUDS ARE THE AVIATION CONCERN TODAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE
SNOW PACK HAVE LED TO AN AREA OF LOW IFR/MVFR STRATUS AHEAD OF A
FRONT TO THE WEST...ALONG WITH REDUCED VSBYS OF 1/2SM OR LESS OVER
PARTS OF NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHWEST WI. KRST IS ON THE EDGE OF THE LOW
STRATUS...AND WITH WIND PROFILERS SHOWING SOME SWING TO THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW...THOUGHTS ARE THAT KRST WILL
AVOID THESE LOW CIGS. KLSE...HOWEVER...WILL NOT. RUC13 TRENDS WOULD
HOLD IFR/MVFR CIGS THERE THROUGH 16-18Z...AND HAVE TRENDED KLSE TAF
AS SUCH. DON/T EXPECT A DROP BELOW 1-2SM AT KLSE AT PRESENT...BUT
TRENDS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
NEXT...ANOTHER BATCH OF 2 KFT CLOUDS MAY SWING ACROSS BOTH KRST AND
KLSE FOR THE AFTERNOON. THESE ARE SOURCED FROM SOUTHERN
CANADA/NORTHERN PLAINS. FOG/STRATUS SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SFC OBS
DEPICT THIS...AS DOES THE LATEST RUC13/NAM12 RH FIELDS. THIS IS
INCLUDED IN THE TAFS. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR THIS EVENING.
FRIDAY...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WITH SNOW RETURNING. LOOK
FOR A PERIOD OF IFR/MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS OF POSSIBLY 1-2SM IN -SN.
EXPECT 1-2 INCHES OF ACCUM...FOCUSED ON FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
1013 AM CST THU JAN 26 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION.....RIECK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
615 AM CST THU JAN 26 2012
.SHORT TERM...UPDATED
615 AM CST THU JAN 26 2012
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FETCH ACROSS SNOW COVER TO THE SOUTH HAS
MANIFESTED INTO AN ARE OF LOW STRATUS AND FOG. CALLS TO LAW
ENFORCEMENT ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST IA AND SOUTHWEST WI HAS
INDICATED THAT THE FOG WAS DENSE IN AREAS. WITH TEMPS BELOW
FREEZING...SOME ICING COULD RESULT...LENDING ANOTHER HAZARD FOR
MORNING TRAVELERS. HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO COVER THE LOW
VSBYS AND ICING THREAT UNTIL 10 AM. RUC13/NAM12 FAVOR SOME
IMPROVEMENT BY THEN AS WINDS BECOME A BIT MORE WEST AS A SFC FRONT
APPROACHES. TRENDS WILL OBVIOUSLY BE MONITORED AND ADJUSTED MADE TO
THE ADV...AS NEEDED.
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
335 AM CST THU JAN 26 2012
26.00Z GFS/ECMWF SHOWING COLDER CYCLONIC FLOW LINGERING ACROSS THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. LOOKS LIKE LIGHT SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A
COUPLE MID-LEVEL TROUGH ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA. LOOK FOR HIGHS
SUNDAY IN THE 15 TO 20 DEGREE RANGE. WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH THE
WAVE ON MONDAY EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HIGHS IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S.
MODELS THEN SHOW MORE OF A HIGH ZONAL FLOW TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY WHICH
BRINGS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION ON TUESDAY. ENOUGH WARM AIR LOOKS TO BE PRESENT
WITH THIS SYSTEM ON TUESDAY FOR A CHANCE OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX.
&&
.AVIATION...
615 AM CST THU JAN 26 2012
CLOUDS ARE THE AVIATION CONCERN TODAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE
SNOW PACK HAVE LED TO AN AREA OF LOW IFR/MVFR STRATUS AHEAD OF A
FRONT TO THE WEST...ALONG WITH REDUCED VSBYS OF 1/2SM OR LESS OVER
PARTS OF NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHWEST WI. KRST IS ON THE EDGE OF THE LOW
STRATUS...AND WITH WIND PROFILERS SHOWING SOME SWING TO THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW...THOUGHTS ARE THAT KRST WILL
AVOID THESE LOW CIGS. KLSE...HOWEVER...WILL NOT. RUC13 TRENDS WOULD
HOLD IFR/MVFR CIGS THERE THROUGH 16-18Z...AND HAVE TRENDED KLSE TAF
AS SUCH. DON/T EXPECT A DROP BELOW 1-2SM AT KLSE AT PRESENT...BUT
TRENDS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
NEXT...ANOTHER BATCH OF 2 KFT CLOUDS MAY SWING ACROSS BOTH KRST AND
KLSE FOR THE AFTERNOON. THESE ARE SOURCED FROM SOUTHERN
CANADA/NORTHERN PLAINS. FOG/STRATUS SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SFC OBS
DEPICT THIS...AS DOES THE LATEST RUC13/NAM12 RH FIELDS. THIS IS
INCLUDED IN THE TAFS. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR THIS EVENING.
FRIDAY...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WITH SNOW RETURNING. LOOK
FOR A PERIOD OF IFR/MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS OF POSSIBLY 1-2SM IN -SN.
EXPECT 1-2 INCHES OF ACCUM...FOCUSED ON FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
615 AM CST THU JAN 26 2012
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR WIZ053>055-
061.
MN...NONE.
IA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR IAZ009>011-
018-019-029-030.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION.....RIECK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
337 AM CST SAT JAN 28 2012
.DISCUSSION...
337 AM CST
MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS DENOTE A CLOSED
CIRCULATION ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA...WITH A LARGE TROUGH EXTENDING
TO THE SOUTH AND PUSHING THROUGH OUR REGION. THIS TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVANCE EAST THROUGH THE DAY...AND PUSH A SURFACE
FRONT/TROUGH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. AS OF 3 AM...THE MAIN FRONT HAD
PUSHED THROUGH DKB AND WAS ON ITS WAY TOWARDS LAKE MICHIGAN. BY
SUNRISE MOST IF NOT ALL LOCATIONS ACROSS ILLINOIS AND NORTHWESTERN
INDIANA SHOULD BE FREE FROM SNOWFALL. WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY
AND THEN NORTHWESTERLY WITH GUSTS INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS HIGHLIGHT EFFICIENT AND DEEP MIXING BEYOND H9
THIS THIS AFTERNOON. UPSTREAM OBS HIGHLIGHT MID 20 KT GUSTS ACROSS
THE MN/WI BORDER...AND THAT WILL WORK SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA INTO
THE MORNING HOURS. STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE MID
LEVELS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL LEAD TO MEAN GUSTS
AROUND 30-35 KT THROUGH THE MIXED LAYER WORKING TO THE
SURFACE...ESPECIALLY ONCE CLOUDS CLEAR OUT...THOUGH NO ADVISORY
LEVEL GUSTS ANTICIPATED.
THE NEXT RIPPLE IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL WORK SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT...BRINGING ANOTHER CLIPPER ACROSS
THE IL/WI BORDER. AS WITH MANY CLIPPER SYSTEMS...THIS ONE WILL BE
RATHER MOISTURE DEVOID. ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS SHOWCASES THE BEST
UPGLIDE HAPPENING OVERNIGHT...WITH A LOT BEING WASTED ON
SATURATION IN THE 06 TO 12Z TIMEFRAME. GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE RATES
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND WEAK Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE...WILL
KEEP THE MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE MORNING HOURS OF
SUNDAY...BUT STILL KEEPING TOTALS LOW...AND WOULD BE SURPRISED IF
MORE THAN A QUARTER TO HALF OF AN INCH OF SNOW ARE SQUEEZED OUT
ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES.
THE PATTERN FOR THE PREVIOUS DAY AND NEXT FEW DAYS IS ACTING LIKE A
BROKEN RECORD. SNOW A LITTLE...CLEAR OUT...SLOWLY COOL...INCREASE
CLOUDS AND START OVER. SUNDAY WILL BE SIMILAR WITH ONE MINOR
EXCEPTION. LIGHT CAA WILL CONTINUE ALLOWING SUNDAY TEMPERATURES TO
SWING A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY. THE NEXT RIPPLE IN THE FLOW
WILL AGAIN COME RACING SOUTH THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA...BUT
THIS TIME IS PROGGED TO REMAIN NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AS THE WAVE APPROACHES.
THE START OF THE WEEK WILL BE SIMILAR TO FLIPPING AN OLD LP RECORD
FROM SIDE A TO SIDE B. THE PERSISTENT AND MINUSCULE WAVES THAT
HAVE BEEN DIVING THROUGH HERE...WITH ABOUT A 24 HOUR
PERIODICITY...WILL COME TO AN END AS FLOW ALOFT ATTEMPTS TO
BECOME ZONAL AS THE LARGE WEST COAST RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL SQUEEZE OUT AND SOUTH
OF THE REGION AND TAKE RESIDENCE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS.
THIS WILL ALLOW LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW TO BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY...BRINGING IN UNSEASONABLE WARMTH...AGAIN. HIGHS
MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY ARE LOOKING TO RANGE FROM 10 TO
POTENTIALLY WELL OVER 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. THE SECOND LAW OF THERMODYNAMICS STATES THAT FOR EVERY
ACTION...THERE IS AN EQUAL AND OPPOSITE REACTION. THANKFULLY THE
ATMOSPHERIC REACTION TO THE WARMTH WILL NOT HAPPEN QUICKLY.
DESPITE CONTINUED MODEL VARIANCES THESE LAST FEW NIGHTS...LONG
RANGE MODELS ARE STILL IN AGREEMENT WITH A WAVE DEEPENING ACROSS
THE PLAINS AND LIFTING ACROSS IL/WI BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE
LATEST EC HAS COME INTO AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS...AND EVEN SREF TO
SOME RESPECTS...WITH MOVING A SURFACE FEATURE ACROSS THE AREA. I
SAY FEATURE AT THIS POINT...BEING 96 HOURS OUT...AS THE MODELS
STILL DIFFER WITH RESPECT TO EITHER HAVING A LOW LIFT ACROSS THE
BORDER...OR ELSE KEEP THE LOW TO THE NORTHWEST AND LIFT A WARM
FRONT ACROSS...BEFORE BOTH SHIFT A COLD FRONT THROUGH.
REGARDLESS...DID UP POP CHANCES MID WEEK IN THE TUES AFTERNOON/EVE
WINDOW. WITH STRONG WAA UNDERWAY...PROFILES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT RAIN UNTIL THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF WEDNESDAY...WHEN THE
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES MAY SEE A RAIN AND SNOW MIX.
SHEA
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 09Z...
* DEPARTING SNOW AND IFR CONDITIONS PRIOR TO DAYBREAK.
* LINGERING MVFR CLOUDS CHANCES THROUGH JUST AFTER DAYBREAK.
* STRONG/GUSTY WEST NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY.
* CHANCE OF SNOW LATE TONIGHT.
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
LIGHT SNOW WITH GENERALLY IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH A
GOOD CHUNK OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ENDING JUST PRIOR TO SUNRISE IN
CHICAGO AREA...A COUPLE HOURS EARLIER WEST TOWARD ROCKFORD. SKIES
SHOULD CLEAR QUICKLY AFTER THE SNOW ENDS WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY AND BECOMING INCREASINGLY GUSTY. BY LATE SAT
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON SHOULD SEE WIND GUSTS AROUND 30KT
BEFORE WINDS SUBSIDE NEAR SUNSET. ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE SAT NIGHT BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE
OF LIGHT SNOW DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS SUNDAY.
IZZI
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 09Z...
* MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN DEPARTING TIME OF SNOW AND IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS. SOME BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES MAY BE OBSERVED
THROUGH 12Z.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND TRENDS AND TIMING.
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN SNOW OCCURRING LATE TONIGHT.
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SUNDAY-12Z FRIDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
SUNDAY...CHC AM -SN AND MVFR CIGS.
MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...IFR CIGS POSSIBLE. CHC -R OR -DZ.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR.
IZZI/MTF
&&
.MARINE...
226 AM CST
AN ACTIVE PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE LAKES BASICALLY
THROUGH TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY EVEN FURTHER. AS A COLD FRONT CLEARS
THE LAKE NEAR DAYBREAK...COLDER AIR WILL ADVECT OVER THE REGION
WITHIN A STRONG NORTHWEST PUSH OF WINDS. TOGETHER THIS WILL HELP TO
STEEPEN LAPSE RATES AND PROMOTE GALE FORCE WESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN LAKE...INCLUDING NEARSHORE AREAS OF IL AND IN...AND
SPREADING TO THE NORTH OPEN WATERS BY LATE MORNING. WHILE GALE FORCE
GUSTS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING...WINDS WILL GENERALLY STAY
AT LEAST 20 KT THROUGH SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING AS ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE AREA MOVES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES. WINDS WILL TURN
SOUTHERLY FROM MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH A WARM FRONT MOVING
NORTH ACROSS THE LAKE. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
LAKE BY LATE TUESDAY. WITH THIS FEATURE GALE FORCE GUSTS MAY AGAIN
BE POSSIBLE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD. AT THIS TIME...A SLIGHTLY QUIETER
PATTERN UNDER WEAK RIDGING IS FAVORED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST
WINDS.
MTF
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-
LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 UNTIL 9 PM
SATURDAY.
GALE WARNING...NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 6
PM SATURDAY.
GALE WARNING...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565...10 AM
SATURDAY TO 9 PM SATURDAY.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
310 PM EST FRI JAN 27 2012
.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO
CENTRAL INDIANA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR LIGHT SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION. COLDER AIR WILL
SPREAD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND WITH THE
POSSIBILITY FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES AS A
SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH THE AREAS SUNDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL PRECIP
CHANCES ARRIVE FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN FOR LATE NEXT
WEEK AS A SERIES OF FRONTS PASS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...
MAIN ADJUSTMENT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL BE TO SLOW DOWN
TIMING OF SNOW A LITTLE. BOTH RUC AND NEW NAM SHOW ALMOST ZERO QPF
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA PRIOR TO 09Z. IN
ADDITION 1000-850 MB THICKNESS DO NOT DROP TO 1300 AT KIND UNTIL
AROUND 09Z. BUFKIT SHOWS GREATEST QPF OCCURRING DURING THE 09Z-14Z
PERIOD. WILL NOT MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO SNOW TOTALS OTHER
THAN TO DELAY THE TIMING A LITTLE WHERE SOME OF THIS WILL OCCUR
AFTER 12Z ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR REGION.
PRIOR TO 09Z WILL GO WITH A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW OVER ALL BUT
FAR NORTHWEST AREAS. PREVIOUS FORECAST RELIED HEAVILY ON LAV
TEMPERATURES AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE.
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE WILL SWEEP INTO THE
FORECAST AREA TOWARDS DAYBREAK WITH PRECIP ENDING SHORTLY
THEREAFTER.
TEMPS...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...EXPECT SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER
AT OR ABOVE FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. HAVE LEANED QUITE A BIT
CLOSER TO THE LAMP AND SREF RAW TEMPS AS OPPOSED TO MOS WHICH LOOKS
TO BE TOO COLD. ANY DROPS TO BELOW FREEZING TEMPS SHOULD NOT TAKE
PLACE UNTIL AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH THE
BOUNDARY LOCATED SOMEWHERE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA AT 12Z.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
RAISED POPS A LITTLE OVER ALL BUT FAR WESTERN SECTIONS EARLY
SATURDAY DUE TO SLOWER MOVEMENT OF SNOW. PREVIOUS SHORT TERM
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS BELOW.
FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON TEMPS AND WINDS IN WAKE OF THE CLIPPER
SATURDAY...AND POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
WITH A SECONDARY CLIPPER SUNDAY MORNING.
SHARP SUBSIDENCE AND DEEP DRYING ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
IN WAKE OF THE FRONT SATURDAY MORNING. PRECIP SET TO END OVER
EASTERN COUNTIES BY MID MORNING AT THE LATEST. IN PRESENCE OF
ABUNDANT DRY AIR...SKIES WILL BECOME MAINLY SUNNY FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE DAY. STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND COLD ADVECTION IN WAKE OF THE
CLIPPER WILL HELP FEED LOW LEVEL MIXING SATURDAY WITH GUSTY WINDS OF
30 TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE. GUSTS WILL DROP OFF SATURDAY NIGHT BUT
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT AND SHOULD ENABLE SUSTAINED
OF 10-20MPH ALL NIGHT. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROTATES THROUGH THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES.
SHORTWAVE ALOFT AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY AT SURFACE WILL ROTATE THROUGH
THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING. FORCING ALOFT IS WEAKER WITH
THIS SYSTEM AS OPPOSED TO THE ONE PASSING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THAT AREA OF FORCING IS
FOCUSED MORE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF INDIANA AS OPPOSED TO THE
GREAT LAKES AND MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME WEAK INSTABILITY
PRESENT IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER FOR SUNDAY MORNING. DESPITE LIMITED
MOISTURE...THINK THE PRESENCE OF THE FORCING AND INSTABILITY WILL
PROVIDE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF MORE THAN JUST FLURRIES SUNDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN COUNTIES. HAVE INSERTED ACCUMS
OF A FEW TENTHS FOCUSED FROM LAFAYETTE TO MUNCIE WITH TRACE
AMOUNTS AS FAR SOUTH AS THE I-70 CORRIDOR. WILL BE A MUCH DRIER
SNOW WITH A COLDER AIRMASS PRESENT. ALL SNOW WILL BE EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY MIDDAY. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES CAN THEN BE EXPECTED
FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
TEMPS...COULD SEE TEMPS FALL A COUPLE DEGREES FROM 12Z LOWS SATURDAY
MORNING AS INITIAL SURGE OF COLD ADVECTION BEHIND FRONT ARRIVES.
TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND SOME FOR THE AFTERNOON BUT IN COLD ADVECTION
PATTERN AM UNDERCUTTING GUIDANCE. LOWS WILL BE REACHED SATURDAY
NIGHT BY MIDNIGHT AS QUICK SHOT OF WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPS AHEAD OF
THE SECONDARY CLIPPER. LEANED TOWARDS COOLER MAVMOS FOR SUNDAY WITH
THE RENEWAL OF COLD ADVECTION IN WAKE OF THE SECOND CLIPPER. COLDEST
NIGHT WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE LOWER 20S FOR
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAIN CHALLENGE TO THE EXTENDED WILL BE POPS ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE
PERIOD. THE 00Z ECMWF IS NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z GFS
AND ENSEMBLES AS IT IS DRY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THE
CR INITITIALIZATION WAS GIVING US SMALL POPS. WITH THE MODELS BEING
INCONSISTANT OVER THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS AND AFTER COORDINATING WITH
ADJACENT OFFICES...WILL GO AHEAD AND KEEP THEM IN DESPITE DRY 00Z
MODEL CONSENSUS. COULD SEE A MIX THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ALL RAIN FRIDAY
AHEAD OF SEPARATE UPPER TROUGHS. PRIOR TO THURSDAY NIGHT...MODELS IN
A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT ON A FRONT MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
MIDWEEK WHICH WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE FIRST OF TWO UPPER TROUGHS AND TO THE
NORTH OF A SURFACE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS KENTUCKY. THESE TWO TROUGHS
WILL HELP BRING SOME COLDER AIR ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA LATE IN THE
WEEK REPLACING A VERY MILD AIRMASS WITH EARLY AND MID WEEK HIGHS IN
THE 50S.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 280600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
MVFR CEILINGS HAVE ARRIVED OR WILL SHORTLY ARRIVE AT ALL THE SITES
AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT IS APPROACHING THE AREA. SNOW
SHOULD ARRIVE SHORTLY AT KLAF AND A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL MOVE
INTO KHUF OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. TIMING OF SNOW ARRIVAL AT
INDIANAPOLIS SHOULD BE AROUND 9Z WITH SIMILAR TIMING FOR A RAIN SNOW
MIX AT KBMG. WITH THE BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE IN THE NORTH HAVE
INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP OF IFR VISIBILITIES AT KLAF. PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE MOVING OUT OF THE AREA STARTING AROUND 12Z IN THE WEST AND
WORKING ITS WAY EAST SO THAT IT IS CLEAR OF ALL SITES BY AROUND 14Z.
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM SHOULD ALLOW MVFR
CLOUDS TO SCATTER OUT BY LATE MORNING. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM WILL BRING WIND GUSTS WITH
IT...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10-20 KTS AND GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN/JH
SHORT TERM...RYAN/JH
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...CP/MK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
100 AM EST SAT JAN 28 2012
.AVIATION /06 UTC TAFS/...
LEADING EDGE OF RAPID DETERIORATING FLIGHT CONDS INTO KSBN-KFWA LINE
ATTM WITH PRIMARY FOCUS ONTO BREVITY OF ANTICIPATED LIFR MET CONDS
AT KSBN AS SUBCLOUD LYR RAPIDLY SATURATES NEXT HOUR THEN HONED END
TIME AS FOCUS FOR LIFT MOVES RAPIDLY EWD. SIMILARLY AT KFWA SLIGHTLY
BETTER OVERALL CONDS FORECAST...GIVEN BOTH ANTECEDENT LARGE
900-700MB DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AND BEING MORE ON SRN PERIPHERY OF
STRONGER LIFT. LEANED HEAVILY ONTO HRRR TRENDS FOR RAPIDLY IMPROVING
CONDS 12-14 UTC WITH CLIPPER FOLLOWED BY SIG STRONGER SFC FLOW/GUSTS
PER INCRSD DOWNWARD MOMENTUM XFER AS SFC-800MB LAPSE RATES STEEPEN.
&&
.UPDATE...
CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS SEEM TO BE SUPPORTING PREVIOUS
FORECAST TO THIS POINT. INCREASE IN RADAR RETURNS NOTED THE PAST
FEW HOURS ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS DOWNSTREAM OF THE STRONGER UPPER
LEVEL FORCING JUST NOW EXITING THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A WEAKLY
FRONTOGENETIC FLOW APPEARS TO BE SETTING UP AND ENHANCING A FAIRLY
STRONG LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIBBON (-5 DEG CELSIUS PER 00Z KDVN RAOB
AND +1 DEG CELSIUS PER 00Z KILN RAOB). HIGHER RESOLUTION MODEL
OUTPUT AND EVEN NAM40 APPEAR TO HAVE SOME INDICATION OF THIS WEST
TO EAST EXPANSION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA INITIALLY. ISENTROPIC PROGS OF
285K SFC ALSO SUGGEST SOME INCREASING ISENTROPIC ASCENT LATER THIS
EVENING ACROSS NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA EVENTUALLY ALLOWING
SNOW TO OVERSPREAD NWRN HALF OF THE AREA TOWARD 06Z. EVEN SOME
REPORTS OF SOME -RA WITH BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID
30S ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS. DID ADD A CHANCE RAIN/SNOW
MENTION ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING BUT WILL
STAY WITH PREDOMINATELY SNOW FOR THE OVERNIGHT.
PREVIOUS FCSTED SNOW AMOUNTS STILL APPEAR REASONABLE WITH A
POSSIBILITY OF TWO AREAS OF SLIGHTLY ENHANCED MAXIMUM
SNOWFALL...ONE ACROSS FAR NWRN IND/SWRN LWR MICHIGAN WITH SOME
WEAK LAKE ENHANCEMENT...AND ANOTHER POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHWEST
PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHERE A PERIOD OF SOME BETTER WEST TO EAST
BANDING IS POSSIBLE DURING EARLIER STAGES OF THE OVERNIGHT. SOME
OF THE INITIAL LIFT LATER THIS EVENING HOWEVER WILL BE SPENT TOWARD
ERODING A FAIRLY PRONOUNCED DRY LAYER EVIDENT IN THE 900 TO 750
HPA LAYER ON THIS EVENINGS REGIONAL AMDAR SOUNDINGS. ALL IN
ALL...1 TO 2 INCH SNOW AMOUNTS APPEAR TO BE INLINE AS UPPER
FORCING INCREASES WITH BETTER DEEPER SATURATION OVERNIGHT.
SLIGHTLY LESSER AMOUNTS EXPECTED ACROSS FAR EAST/SOUTHEAST WHERE
ISENTROPIC/FRONTOGENESIS PROGS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE QUITE AS
IMPRESSIVE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 727 PM EST FRI JAN 27 2012/
AVIATION...
00Z TAFS...SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM. IN THE MEANTIME...SOME FAIRLY DRY LOW LEVEL AIR NOTED IN
THIS EVENINGS REGIONAL AMDAR SOUNDINGS. MORE IMPRESSIVE BAND OF
SNOW PER REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC/SFC EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN MISSOURI
INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND EASTWARD THIS
EVENING IN ASSOCIATION WITH SOME LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS FORCING.
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT
FURTHER TO THE NORTH ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA AND SHOULD SEE AN
EXPANSION OF -SN ACROSS FAR NRN INDIANA TOWARD MIDNIGHT ALONG WITH
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS TO IFR AND POSSIBLY SHORTER LIVED LIFR
WITH HEAVIER SNOW BURSTS OVERNIGHT. PREVIOUS TIMING IN TAFS STILL
LOOKS REASONABLE...WITH ONSET OF SNOW AT 05Z AT KSBN AND SHORTLY
AFTER THIS TIME AT KFWA. SNOW SHOULD END FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE
11Z-13Z TIMEFRAME. WEST WINDS EARLY THIS EVENING WILL VEER
SOUTHWEST TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT...AND THEN SHIFT TO
THE WEST WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DEEP WESTERLY FLOW WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR A
WINDY DAY ON SATURDAY WITH LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON GUSTS INTO THE
30 TO 35 KNOT RANGE.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 434 PM EST FRI JAN 27 2012/
SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THE CHALLENGES THIS PERIOD INCLUDE
THE TIMING AND AMOUNTS OF SNOW FROM AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM REACHING
THE AREA TONIGHT...AND ANOTHER SYSTEM SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR THIS
PACKAGE...PREFERRED THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NCEP MODELS WHICH APPEAR
TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THIS SYSTEM. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
INCREASE RAPIDLY TONIGHT WITH MOISTURE ON THE 285K SFC BETWEEN 2
AND 3 G/KG. USING THE GARCIA METHOD WITH THIS ENVIRONMENT YIELDS 2
TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW USING A 6 HOUR DURATION INPUT TIME. HOWEVER...
SOME CONCERN FOR SATURATION TIME AND MELTING SUGGESTS 1 TO 2
INCH SNOW AMOUNTS ARE MORE REASONABLE. CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE
THAT THE MOISTURE DEPTH IS SUFFICIENT FOR SNOW AND THE MAXIMUM
OMEGA FIELD INTERSECTS THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE VERY WELL.
CURRENT THINKING IS WIDESPREAD SNOW FROM AFTER MIDNIGHT ENDING
SATURDAY MORNING. DOWNWARD MOTION BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD HELP
WITH A RAPID END OF SNOW...ALTHOUGH WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY. AS FOR THE SYSTEM SATURDAY NIGHT...MUCH WEAKER LIFT
AND LIMITED MOISTURE INDICATE ANY SNOW AMOUNTS LESS THAN AN INCH.
LONG TERM...
NRN STREAM SW TROUGH OVR NWRN BC WILL AMPLIFY SEWD THROUGH THE SHRT
TERM AS MEAN ERN CONUS MID LVL TROUGH DEEPENS. 12Z SOLUTIONS ACRS
THE BOARD ARE MORE ROBUST ALOFT ESP THE GEM AND SUGGEST SOME UPWARD
BUMPING TO POPS IN ORDER ESP IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM OF THE LK ACRS
SW MI IN RESPONSE TO PASSAGE OF SECONDARY CAA BURST DURING THE DAY
SUN.
OTHERWISE PRIMARY THEME THIS PD IS FOR DEAMPLIFICATION THROUGH MID
PD FOLLOWED BY MORE SIG WRN RIDGE/ERN TROUGH DVLPMNT TWD DY8. GIVEN
FAST FLW ALOFT...DETAIL PREDICTABILITY REMAINS LOW AND CAN NOT
ARGUE AGAINST LWR BOUND CHC POPS THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE DY5-8 PD
GIVEN UNSETTLED/DISTURBANCE RIDDLED STREAM FLW THAT EXTENDS BACK
ACRS THE NPAC. LEAD IMPULSE MARKING THIS CHG RIDES EWD THROUGH THE
NRN PLAINS/SE CANADA MID PD W/SIG WARMING ANTICIPATED LOCALLY ESP
TUE/WED COINCIDENT W/LL THERMAL RIDGE SHIFTING ACRS THE AREA. AND AS
MENTIONED IN PRIOR DISC...SOME AREAS MAY WARM INTO THE 50S AS ELUDED
TO IN LATEST 12Z GFS MOS GUIDANCE ESP IF GREATER THAN ANTICIPATED
INSOLATION IS REALIZED.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SKIPPER
LONG TERM...T
AVIATION...MURPHY
UPDATE...MARSILI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1136 PM EST FRI JAN 27 2012
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO
CENTRAL INDIANA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR LIGHT SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION. COLDER AIR WILL
SPREAD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND WITH THE
POSSIBILITY FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES AS A
SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH THE AREAS SUNDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL PRECIP
CHANCES ARRIVE FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN FOR LATE NEXT
WEEK AS A SERIES OF FRONTS PASS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...
MAIN ADJUSTMENT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL BE TO SLOW DOWN
TIMING OF SNOW A LITTLE. BOTH RUC AND NEW NAM SHOW ALMOST ZERO QPF
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA PRIOR TO 09Z. IN
ADDITION 1000-850 MB THICKNESS DO NOT DROP TO 1300 AT KIND UNTIL
AROUND 09Z. BUFKIT SHOWS GREATEST QPF OCCURRING DURING THE 09Z-14Z
PERIOD. WILL NOT MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO SNOW TOTALS OTHER
THAN TO DELAY THE TIMING A LITTLE WHERE SOME OF THIS WILL OCCUR
AFTER 12Z ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR REGION.
PRIOR TO 09Z WILL GO WITH A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW OVER ALL BUT
FAR NORTHWEST AREAS. PREVIOUS FORECAST RELIED HEAVILY ON LAV
TEMPERATURES AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE.
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE WILL SWEEP INTO THE
FORECAST AREA TOWARDS DAYBREAK WITH PRECIP ENDING SHORTLY
THEREAFTER.
TEMPS...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...EXPECT SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER
AT OR ABOVE FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. HAVE LEANED QUITE A BIT
CLOSER TO THE LAMP AND SREF RAW TEMPS AS OPPOSED TO MOS WHICH LOOKS
TO BE TOO COLD. ANY DROPS TO BELOW FREEZING TEMPS SHOULD NOT TAKE
PLACE UNTIL AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH THE
BOUNDARY LOCATED SOMEWHERE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA AT 12Z.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
RAISED POPS A LITTLE OVER ALL BUT FAR WESTERN SECTIONS EARLY
SATURDAY DUE TO SLOWER MOVEMENT OF SNOW. PREVIOUS SHORT TERM
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS BELOW.
FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON TEMPS AND WINDS IN WAKE OF THE CLIPPER
SATURDAY...AND POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
WITH A SECONDARY CLIPPER SUNDAY MORNING.
SHARP SUBSIDENCE AND DEEP DRYING ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
IN WAKE OF THE FRONT SATURDAY MORNING. PRECIP SET TO END OVER
EASTERN COUNTIES BY MID MORNING AT THE LATEST. IN PRESENCE OF
ABUNDANT DRY AIR...SKIES WILL BECOME MAINLY SUNNY FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE DAY. STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND COLD ADVECTION IN WAKE OF THE
CLIPPER WILL HELP FEED LOW LEVEL MIXING SATURDAY WITH GUSTY WINDS OF
30 TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE. GUSTS WILL DROP OFF SATURDAY NIGHT BUT
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT AND SHOULD ENABLE SUSTAINED
OF 10-20MPH ALL NIGHT. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROTATES THROUGH THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES.
SHORTWAVE ALOFT AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY AT SURFACE WILL ROTATE THROUGH
THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING. FORCING ALOFT IS WEAKER WITH
THIS SYSTEM AS OPPOSED TO THE ONE PASSING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THAT AREA OF FORCING IS
FOCUSED MORE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF INDIANA AS OPPOSED TO THE
GREAT LAKES AND MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME WEAK INSTABILITY
PRESENT IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER FOR SUNDAY MORNING. DESPITE LIMITED
MOISTURE...THINK THE PRESENCE OF THE FORCING AND INSTABILITY WILL
PROVIDE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF MORE THAN JUST FLURRIES SUNDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN COUNTIES. HAVE INSERTED ACCUMS
OF A FEW TENTHS FOCUSED FROM LAFAYETTE TO MUNCIE WITH TRACE
AMOUNTS AS FAR SOUTH AS THE I-70 CORRIDOR. WILL BE A MUCH DRIER
SNOW WITH A COLDER AIRMASS PRESENT. ALL SNOW WILL BE EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY MIDDAY. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES CAN THEN BE EXPECTED
FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
TEMPS...COULD SEE TEMPS FALL A COUPLE DEGREES FROM 12Z LOWS SATURDAY
MORNING AS INITIAL SURGE OF COLD ADVECTION BEHIND FRONT ARRIVES.
TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND SOME FOR THE AFTERNOON BUT IN COLD ADVECTION
PATTERN AM UNDERCUTTING GUIDANCE. LOWS WILL BE REACHED SATURDAY
NIGHT BY MIDNIGHT AS QUICK SHOT OF WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPS AHEAD OF
THE SECONDARY CLIPPER. LEANED TOWARDS COOLER MAVMOS FOR SUNDAY WITH
THE RENEWAL OF COLD ADVECTION IN WAKE OF THE SECOND CLIPPER. COLDEST
NIGHT WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE LOWER 20S FOR
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS CONCUR WITH ACTIVE PATTERN. BIG DIFFERENCES MORE IN TIMING
THAN CONCEPTS. THIS IS A SITUATION THAT CALLS FOR ENSEMBLE
TACTICS. ALL BLEND PROVIDED BY CENTRAL REGION SHOULD BE JUST THE
TICKET.
MOST IMPORTANT QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER WE CAN PRODUCE ANY SNOW IN
SYSTEMS PASSING FRIDAY. RIGHT NOW...ITS JUST TOO EARLY SAY MORE
THAN A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 280600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
MVFR CEILINGS HAVE ARRIVED OR WILL SHORTLY ARRIVE AT ALL THE SITES
AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT IS APPROACHING THE AREA. SNOW
SHOULD ARRIVE SHORTLY AT KLAF AND A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL MOVE
INTO KHUF OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. TIMING OF SNOW ARRIVAL AT
INDIANAPOLIS SHOULD BE AROUND 9Z WITH SIMILAR TIMING FOR A RAIN SNOW
MIX AT KBMG. WITH THE BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE IN THE NORTH HAVE
INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP OF IFR VISIBILITIES AT KLAF. PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE MOVING OUT OF THE AREA STARTING AROUND 12Z IN THE WEST AND
WORKING ITS WAY EAST SO THAT IT IS CLEAR OF ALL SITES BY AROUND 14Z.
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM SHOULD ALLOW MVFR
CLOUDS TO SCATTER OUT BY LATE MORNING. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM WILL BRING WIND GUSTS WITH
IT...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10-20 KTS AND GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN/JH
SHORT TERM...RYAN/JH
LONG TERM....JK
AVIATION...CP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1121 PM CST FRI JAN 27 2012
.AVIATION...06Z TAF. QUIET PERIOD FOR THE TAF. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH ONLY HIGH CIRRUS EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE WEST
WILL KEEP WINDS FROM THE WEST WITH STRONGER WINDS DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS SATURDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 911 PM CST FRI JAN 27 2012/
UPDATE...SENT AN ADDITIONAL UPDATE TO THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT
FOR A FEW STUBBORN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING TO TRACK RAPIDLY
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF HARLAN AND PHILLIPS COUNTY THIS
HOUR. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION WITH THESE
SHOWERS...MAYBE A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF TOTAL SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION IN SPOTS AS EVIDENT IN A COUPLE OF NE ROAD CAMERAS
UPSTREAM OF THIS AREA. HOWEVER...BY MIDNIGHT...ALL ACTIVITY SHOULD
HAVE DIMINISHED OR TRACKED OUT OF THE LOCAL AREA AND CLEARING
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SEASONABLY COOL MORNING
ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE TO FORECAST
AT THIS TIME.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 601 PM CST FRI JAN 27 2012/
UPDATE...WILL GO AHEAD AND UPDATE THE FORECAST PACKAGE TO
REFLECT THE EXPIRATION OF THE WIND ADVISORY AS WINDS CONTINUE TO
RELAX AND HAVE NOW FALLEN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. NO OTHER
CHANGES NECESSARY AT THIS TIME.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 421 PM CST FRI JAN 27 2012/
SHORT TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. PRIMARY CONCERNS ARE
TWO-FOLD...FIRST THE ONGOING WIND ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON...AND
THEN POTENTIAL/LIKELY FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
AT 21Z...OBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS A HEALTHY PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA...AS A 1022+MB HIGH SETTLES INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING DEEP MIXING
TO AROUND 800MB...THE WIND ADVISORY FOR ALL BUT THE FAR EASTERN
CWA HAS WORKED OUT FAIRLY WELL...WITH SEVERAL AUTOMATED AIRPORT
SITES RECORDING SUSTAINED SPEEDS NEAR/JUST OVER 30 MPH...ALTHOUGH
PEAK GUSTS HAVE LARGELY TOPPED OUT AROUND 40 MPH...MAKING THIS A
LOW-END WIND ADVISORY OVERALL. ALOFT...AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR AND
SHORT TERM MODEL DATA CONFIRMS A BROAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. WITH PRIMARY ZONE OF SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT
AND MID LEVEL SATURATION HAS BEEN OFF TO THE EAST FOR SEVERAL
HOURS NOW...WITH NO PRECIPITATION NOTED SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON
WITHIN THE CWA. TEMP WISE...HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON MET OR ONLY SLIGHTLY
EXCEEDED ORIGINAL FORECAST FROM THIS MORNING...RANGING FROM AROUND
40 IN THE NORTH TO UPPER 40S SOUTH.
LATE THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT...THE MAIN ISSUE IS THE ONGOING WIND
ADVISORY. WITH NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING A RAPID DIURNAL
DIMINISHMENT IN MIXING AROUND SUNSET...THE 00Z EXPIRATION TIME
LOOKS LIKE ON TARGET. THAT BEING SAID...IT WILL REMAIN RATHER
BREEZY WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS HOLDING
UP IN THE 15-20 MPH RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS. BY MIDNIGHT AND
THEREAFTER...SPEEDS SHOULD EASE DOWN INTO THE 5-15 MPH RANGE AND
TRANSITION MORE WESTERLY AS THE CENTER OF THE EXPANSIVE SURFACE
HIGH TO THE WEST SLIDES SOUTH. TURNING TO PRECIPITATION TRENDS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT...INTRODUCED A MENTION OF
SCATTERED/ISOLATED FLURRIES THROUGH 03Z ACROSS MOST NEB ZONES...TO
ACCOUNT FOR UPSTREAM SNOW SHOWERS NOW EVIDENT OVER WESTERN/NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THESE SNOW SHOWERS ARE A CLASSIC CASE OF PARTIAL
SUNSHINE ACTING UPON STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES UNDER THE COLD
POCKET ALOFT...WITH THE LATEST SPC RUC MESOANALYSIS INDICATING 0-3KM
LAPSE RATES NOW IN THE 7.5-8.5 C/KM RANGE. SHORT TERM HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR AND 4KM WRF-NMM HAVE HAD A GOOD
HANDLE ON THIS SNOW SHOWER/FLURRY ACTIVITY ALL DAY NOW...WITH THE
HRRR AND RADAR TRENDS CONFIRMING THAT THE WESTERN 1/2 OF THE CWA
IS MOST AT RISK FOR CATCHING SOME OF THIS FAST-MOVING ACTIVITY.
STRONGLY CONSIDERED ADDING A LOW MEASURABLE POP TO ACCOUNT FOR
POSSIBILITY THAT A FEW SPOTS MAINLY TOWARD DAWSON/VALLEY/SHERMAN
COUNTY AREA COULD MEASURE A QUICK FEW TENTHS OF SNOWFALL...BUT
WITH THE BETTER FOCUS REMAINING JUST NORTHWEST OF THE AREA...FELT
A SCATTERED FLURRY MENTION MIGHT BETTER CAPTURE THE BRIEF NATURE
OF ANY FALLING SNOW. AS LAPSE RATES LESSEN AFTER DARK AND THE
PRIMARY SHORTWAVE AXIS SLIDES EAST...ANY SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD
QUICKLY FADE AWAY...WITH LITTLE IF ANY RISK FOR THIS ACTIVITY
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BEYOND 03Z. TEMPERATURE WISE TONIGHT...THE
HEALTHY EVENING BREEZES SHOULD KEEP THINGS FROM DROPPING OFF VERY
QUICKLY...BUT EVENTUALLY EXPECT LOWS TO DROP INTO THE 17-21 RANGE
ACROSS MOST AREAS AS SKIES CLEAR...EXCEPT FOR SLIGHTLY COLDER READINGS
IN THE FAVORED SPOTS FROM VALLEY TOWARD DAWSON COUNTIES IN THE
WEST.
ON SATURDAY...THE MAIN CONCERN TURNS TO FIRE WEATHER...WHICH IS
COVERED IN THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW. ON THE LARGER SCALE
ALOFT...SLIGHT MID LEVEL HEIGHT RISES OCCUR AS BROAD RATHER HIGH
AMPLIFIED RIDGING DOMINATES THE WESTERN CONUS...WHILE OFF TO THE
EAST...THE PRIMARY SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY WILL
SWING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES...WHILE AN UPSTREAM
SHORTWAVE/AREA OF CHANNELED VORTICITY SLIDES OUT OF CANADA INTO
THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE
SHOULD REMAIN AT LEAST A FEW HUNDRED MILES OFF TO THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST OF THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON. IN THE LOW
LEVELS...IT WILL BE ANOTHER RATHER BREEZY LATE MORNING THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON...BUT THIS TIME FROM THE WEST. NAM FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE IMPRESSIVE MIXING TO 800-750MB DURING THE
AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH NOT ANTICIPATING ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS...SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS 30-35 MPH WILL BE
COMMON. ALTHOUGH IT WILL REMAIN RATHER COOL ALOFT WITH 850MB TEMPS
ONLY RISING INTO THE -1 TO -3C RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON...THE
DOWNSLOPE FLOW ALONG WITH NO WORSE THAN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD
MILK EVERY BIT OF WARMTH OUT OF THE AIRMASS AS POSSIBLE...AND
NUDGED HIGH TEMPERATURES UP SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST MOST
AREAS...WITH MOST NEB ZONES ADVERTISED BETWEEN 45-48...AND KS
ZONES 47-49. AS COVERED FURTHER IN THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION
BELOW...DEWPOINTS WERE LOWERED SEVERAL DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST.
LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THE MAJORITY OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE WEST/NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH
SEVERAL FAST MOVING WAVES RIPPLING THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW. THE
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT THE BULK OF THE ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVES NEVER REALLY TAKES DIRECT AIM AT THE
FORECAST AREA...AND WITH DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS...PRECIPITATION
WILL BE HARD TO GENERATE. NOT TO SAY THERE MAY NOT BE A SMALL
CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW AT SOME POINT...BUT WITHOUT ANY DECENT
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION SHOWN BY THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS...AND WITH
GEFS POPS SO LOW...WILL KEEP IT DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD STAY ON THE WARM SIDE OF
NORMAL. IN FACT...MUCH OF NEXT WEEK SHOULD SEE HIGHS NEARLY 10 TO
15 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES. THE WARMEST DAY APPEARS TO BE
MONDAY WITH H85 TEMPERATURES NEAR 10 CELSIUS AND SOME MODEL
SOLUTIONS SUGGESTING HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. HAVE NOT GONE QUITE
THAT WARM IN THE GRIDS YET...BUT DO HAVE TEMPERATURES SOLIDLY IN THE
MID 50S TO NEAR 60. THERE SHOULD BE A COOL DOWN TOWARDS THE END OF
NEXT WEEK AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
FIRE WEATHER...A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
ENTIRE CWA FROM 18Z-00Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND AN UPGRADE TO A
RED FLAG WARNING IS VERY POSSIBLE FOR AT LEAST WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE WATCH AREA LATER TONIGHT. WITH DEEP MIXING NEAR/IN EXCESS OF
800MB EXPECTED...AND NEARLY DUE WESTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS...THIS IS
A CLASSIC SET UP FOR A PRONOUNCED MIX-OUT OF DAYTIME DEW POINTS.
DESPITE SURFACE TEMPERATURES ONLY TOPPING OUT IN THE 40S...THE
ANTICIPATION OF DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS MOST
AREAS YIELDS A LARGE AREA OF AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
FALLING BETWEEN 15-23 PERCENT...ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS SOUTHWEST
OF A LINE FROM ORD TO SUPERIOR...INCLUDING NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
THE LATEST ECMWF/GFS DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS EVEN SUGGEST THAT
DEWPOINTS COULD DROP BELOW ZERO ACROSS PARTS OF THE DISTRICT...AND
ALTHOUGH DIDN/T BUY THIS FULLY YET...ITS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
IN THIS WESTERLY WIND REGIME. AT ANY RATE...EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE WATCH ARE OF LOWEST CONFIDENCE TO REACH RED FLAG
WARNING...WITH HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN THE SOUTHWEST. THE WIND
CRITERIA OF 20 MPH SUSTAINED/GUSTS TO 25 MPH ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
BE A PROBLEM...SO EVERYTHING WILL HINGE ON THE COMBINATION OF
RISING TEMPERATURES/FALLING DEWPOINTS.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...FIRE WEATHER WATCH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR NEZ039>041-046>049-
060>064-072>077-082>087.
KS...FIRE WEATHER WATCH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR KSZ005>007-017>019.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
1211 AM EST SAT JAN 28 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION
SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ON SUNDAY. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LATEST RUC HAS LIGHT SNOW REACHING NW OH AROUND 09Z AND THE I-71
CORRIDOR AROUND 12Z. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE
ON THIS AND HAVE MADE ONLY A FEW CHANGES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
EXPECT SNOW WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST IN THE
MORNING. MODELS HAVE DEEP MOISTURE SWINGING ACROSS THE AREA WITH
THE SHORT WAVE SO WOULD EXPECT A PERIOD OF SNOW WITH BEST CHANCES
WEST IN THE MORNING AND EAST AFTERNOON. EXPECT ACCUMS TO BE
ROUGHLY AN INCH OR LESS ALTHOUGH NWRN PA COULD SEE A COUPLE.
SHOULD SEE A QUICK BREAK SATURDAY NIGHT BUT BY 12Z SUNDAY MODELS
HAVE THE NEXT WAVE ALREADY MOVING INTO NWRN OHIO. WEST WITH HIGH
CHANCE OR LIKELY POPS. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL KEEP A CHANCE ACROSS NERN
OHIO AND NWRN PA DUE TO THE LAKE. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN
FOR MONDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BY LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD
AND ALLOWS A WARM FRONT TO LIFT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WITH
THE WARM FRONT NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON THIS
WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB TO ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...AND JUST SLIGHTLY COOLER ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM
THURSDAY. THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY...THEN POSSIBLY MIXED ON THURSDAY. FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COMES OUT OF THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY REGION BRINGS SOME ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION.
THIS TIME THE AIR MASS JUST MIGHT BE COLD ENOUGH TO GET SOME
MEASURABLE SNOW FROM THIS EVENT. MODELS STILL SHOWING SOME
DIFFERENCES AS WE GET INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
AND HIGHS 35 TO 40 ON THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STRATOCU PUSHED INLAND FROM THE LAKE THIS EVENING BUT ONLY MADE IT
SOUTH TO A MFD/CAK LINE BEFORE LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTED AROUND TO THE
SOUTH. STRATOCU IS STARTING TO SPREAD NORTH AGAIN AND WILL FILL
BACK INTO THE TAF SITES THROUGH 08Z. UPSTREAM RADARS ACROSS
INDIANA SHOW A LEADING BAND OF SNOW SPREADING TOWARDS NW OHIO.
THIS INITIAL ROUND OF SNOW WILL HAVE TO OVERCOME A VERY DRY
AIRMASS SO ONLY INCLUDED IN A TEMPO AT TOL/FDY BETWEEN 07-10Z. A
WIDESPREAD BUT BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO SPREAD
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON.
EACH SITE WILL ONLY SEE SNOW FOR ROUGHLY A 3-4 FOUR HOUR WINDOW
WITH IFR CONDITIONS. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS. WHICH WILL BE MUCH
STRONGER BEHIND THE FRONT AS THEY VEER TO THE WEST WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 35 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL USHER IN
BEHIND THE FRONT AND HAVE SCATTERED THE CLOUDS OUT QUICKLY TO
3000-4000 FEET.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN ON SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF SNOW. A BRIEF PERIOD OF NON-VFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON
TUESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ROUND ON THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
STILL LOOKS LIKE SCA CONDITIONS WILL SUBSIDE FOR A WHILE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SAT THEN RAMP UP SAT MORNING THEN TO GALES WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE FIRST OF TWO COLD FRONTS THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH SAT
AND AGAIN SUN. THE WINDS WITH THE FRONT SUN DON`T LOOK AS STRONG AS
ON SAT SO PROBABLY JUST A SCA SITUATION WHICH IS TYPICAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. TO KEEP THINGS LESS CONFUSING WILL JUST GO WITH THE
GALE WARNING WITH THE 330 PM FORECAST PACKAGE SINCE THIS IS BY FAR
THE MOST SIGNIFICANT ISSUE OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
WINDS SHOULD BACK TO SSW MON BUT WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO 15 TO 25
MON NIGHT SO DOUBT IF SCA WILL BE TAKEN DOWN THROUGH WED AS WINDS
LIKELY TO REMAIN 15 TO 25 KNOTS OR BETTER WHILE FINALLY VEERING TO
WEST ON WED WITH THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
LEZ061-142>149-162>169.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...ADAMS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
904 AM CST SAT JAN 28 2012
.DISCUSSION...
337 AM CST
MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS DENOTE A CLOSED
CIRCULATION ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA...WITH A LARGE TROUGH EXTENDING
TO THE SOUTH AND PUSHING THROUGH OUR REGION. THIS TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVANCE EAST THROUGH THE DAY...AND PUSH A SURFACE
FRONT/TROUGH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. AS OF 3 AM...THE MAIN FRONT HAD
PUSHED THROUGH DKB AND WAS ON ITS WAY TOWARDS LAKE MICHIGAN. BY
SUNRISE MOST IF NOT ALL LOCATIONS ACROSS ILLINOIS AND NORTHWESTERN
INDIANA SHOULD BE FREE FROM SNOWFALL. WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY
AND THEN NORTHWESTERLY WITH GUSTS INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS HIGHLIGHT EFFICIENT AND DEEP MIXING BEYOND H9
THIS THIS AFTERNOON. UPSTREAM OBS HIGHLIGHT MID 20 KT GUSTS ACROSS
THE MN/WI BORDER...AND THAT WILL WORK SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA INTO
THE MORNING HOURS. STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE MID
LEVELS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL LEAD TO MEAN GUSTS
AROUND 30-35 KT THROUGH THE MIXED LAYER WORKING TO THE
SURFACE...ESPECIALLY ONCE CLOUDS CLEAR OUT...THOUGH NO ADVISORY
LEVEL GUSTS ANTICIPATED.
THE NEXT RIPPLE IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL WORK SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT...BRINGING ANOTHER CLIPPER ACROSS
THE IL/WI BORDER. AS WITH MANY CLIPPER SYSTEMS...THIS ONE WILL BE
RATHER MOISTURE DEVOID. ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS SHOWCASES THE BEST
UPGLIDE HAPPENING OVERNIGHT...WITH A LOT BEING WASTED ON
SATURATION IN THE 06 TO 12Z TIMEFRAME. GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE RATES
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND WEAK Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE...WILL
KEEP THE MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE MORNING HOURS OF
SUNDAY...BUT STILL KEEPING TOTALS LOW...AND WOULD BE SURPRISED IF
MORE THAN A QUARTER TO HALF OF AN INCH OF SNOW ARE SQUEEZED OUT
ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES.
THE PATTERN FOR THE PREVIOUS DAY AND NEXT FEW DAYS IS ACTING LIKE A
BROKEN RECORD. SNOW A LITTLE...CLEAR OUT...SLOWLY COOL...INCREASE
CLOUDS AND START OVER. SUNDAY WILL BE SIMILAR WITH ONE MINOR
EXCEPTION. LIGHT CAA WILL CONTINUE ALLOWING SUNDAY TEMPERATURES TO
SWING A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY. THE NEXT RIPPLE IN THE FLOW
WILL AGAIN COME RACING SOUTH THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA...BUT
THIS TIME IS PROGGED TO REMAIN NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AS THE WAVE APPROACHES.
THE START OF THE WEEK WILL BE SIMILAR TO FLIPPING AN OLD LP RECORD
FROM SIDE A TO SIDE B. THE PERSISTENT AND MINUSCULE WAVES THAT
HAVE BEEN DIVING THROUGH HERE...WITH ABOUT A 24 HOUR
PERIODICITY...WILL COME TO AN END AS FLOW ALOFT ATTEMPTS TO
BECOME ZONAL AS THE LARGE WEST COAST RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL SQUEEZE OUT AND SOUTH
OF THE REGION AND TAKE RESIDENCE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS.
THIS WILL ALLOW LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW TO BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY...BRINGING IN UNSEASONABLE WARMTH...AGAIN. HIGHS
MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY ARE LOOKING TO RANGE FROM 10 TO
POTENTIALLY WELL OVER 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. THE SECOND LAW OF THERMODYNAMICS STATES THAT FOR EVERY
ACTION...THERE IS AN EQUAL AND OPPOSITE REACTION. THANKFULLY THE
ATMOSPHERIC REACTION TO THE WARMTH WILL NOT HAPPEN QUICKLY.
DESPITE CONTINUED MODEL VARIANCES THESE LAST FEW NIGHTS...LONG
RANGE MODELS ARE STILL IN AGREEMENT WITH A WAVE DEEPENING ACROSS
THE PLAINS AND LIFTING ACROSS IL/WI BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE
LATEST EC HAS COME INTO AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS...AND EVEN SREF TO
SOME RESPECTS...WITH MOVING A SURFACE FEATURE ACROSS THE AREA. I
SAY FEATURE AT THIS POINT...BEING 96 HOURS OUT...AS THE MODELS
STILL DIFFER WITH RESPECT TO EITHER HAVING A LOW LIFT ACROSS THE
BORDER...OR ELSE KEEP THE LOW TO THE NORTHWEST AND LIFT A WARM
FRONT ACROSS...BEFORE BOTH SHIFT A COLD FRONT THROUGH.
REGARDLESS...DID UP POP CHANCES MID WEEK IN THE TUES AFTERNOON/EVE
WINDOW. WITH STRONG WAA UNDERWAY...PROFILES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT RAIN UNTIL THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF WEDNESDAY...WHEN THE
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES MAY SEE A RAIN AND SNOW MIX.
SHEA
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 15Z...
* WEST WINDS GUSTING TO 30 KT OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER TODAY.
* WINDS TURNING SOUTHWEST BY EVENING.
* SNOW CHANCES LATE TONIGHT.
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
A STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THROUGH
LOWER MICHIGAN AND INDIANA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION. THESE WINDS WILL BECOME
SOLIDLY DUE WEST BY LATE MORNING AND INCREASE IN MAGNITUDE...WITH
GUSTS TO AT LEAST 27 KT WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. EVEN A FEW GUSTS TO
33 KT ARE POSSIBLE. AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST THIS EVENING...THE WINDS WILL RESPOND BY TURNING
SOUTHWEST IN ADVANCE. OCCASIONAL GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT...AS
THE WINDS IMMEDIATELY OFF THE SURFACE WILL BE QUITE STRONG.
BETWEEN 1500 AND 2500 FT...SOUTHWEST WINDS TONIGHT ARE LIKELY TO
BE AROUND 40 KT. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES LATE TONIGHT...AND AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALOFT INTERACTS WITH THE FRONT...SPOTTY
SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES ARE LIKELY TO BE GENERATED. UNDER
THESE...SOME BRIEF REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY CAN BE FAVORED. CIGS
ARE LIKELY TO LOWER TO MVFR BY MORNING. WIND SPEEDS WILL AGAIN BE
GUSTY FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY...THOUGH NOT AS HIGH IN
SPEED AS TODAY.
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 14Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL ELEMENTS THROUGH TODAY. WIND DIRECTION
MAY BACK AS MUCH AS 240 TO 250 DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
* SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS EVENING MAY HAVE OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20
KT...BUT CONFIDENCE ON GUST MAGNITUDE IS LOW.
* CONFIDENCE IN SNOW OCCURRING TONIGHT IS LOW...BUT IF IT DOES THE
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT IT WILL ONLY BRIEFLY REDUCE VISIBILITY
WITH TOTAL ACCUMULATION OF 0.2 OF AN INCH OR LESS.
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR.
MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...IFR CIGS POSSIBLE. CHANCE OF RAIN/DRIZZLE.
WEDNESDAY...MORNING MVFR POSSIBLE.
THURSDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY...VFR.
MTF
&&
.MARINE...
226 AM CST
AN ACTIVE PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE LAKES BASICALLY
THROUGH TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY EVEN FURTHER. AS A COLD FRONT CLEARS
THE LAKE NEAR DAYBREAK...COLDER AIR WILL ADVECT OVER THE REGION
WITHIN A STRONG NORTHWEST PUSH OF WINDS. TOGETHER THIS WILL HELP TO
STEEPEN LAPSE RATES AND PROMOTE GALE FORCE WESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN LAKE...INCLUDING NEARSHORE AREAS OF IL AND IN...AND
SPREADING TO THE NORTH OPEN WATERS BY LATE MORNING. WHILE GALE FORCE
GUSTS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING...WINDS WILL GENERALLY STAY
AT LEAST 20 KT THROUGH SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING AS ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE AREA MOVES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES. WINDS WILL TURN
SOUTHERLY FROM MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH A WARM FRONT MOVING
NORTH ACROSS THE LAKE. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
LAKE BY LATE TUESDAY. WITH THIS FEATURE GALE FORCE GUSTS MAY AGAIN
BE POSSIBLE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD. AT THIS TIME...A SLIGHTLY QUIETER
PATTERN UNDER WEAK RIDGING IS FAVORED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST
WINDS.
MTF
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-
LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 UNTIL 9 PM
SATURDAY.
GALE WARNING...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565 UNTIL 9
PM SATURDAY.
GALE WARNING...NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 6
PM SATURDAY.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
520 AM CST SAT JAN 28 2012
.DISCUSSION...
337 AM CST
MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS DENOTE A CLOSED
CIRCULATION ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA...WITH A LARGE TROUGH EXTENDING
TO THE SOUTH AND PUSHING THROUGH OUR REGION. THIS TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVANCE EAST THROUGH THE DAY...AND PUSH A SURFACE
FRONT/TROUGH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. AS OF 3 AM...THE MAIN FRONT HAD
PUSHED THROUGH DKB AND WAS ON ITS WAY TOWARDS LAKE MICHIGAN. BY
SUNRISE MOST IF NOT ALL LOCATIONS ACROSS ILLINOIS AND NORTHWESTERN
INDIANA SHOULD BE FREE FROM SNOWFALL. WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY
AND THEN NORTHWESTERLY WITH GUSTS INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS HIGHLIGHT EFFICIENT AND DEEP MIXING BEYOND H9
THIS THIS AFTERNOON. UPSTREAM OBS HIGHLIGHT MID 20 KT GUSTS ACROSS
THE MN/WI BORDER...AND THAT WILL WORK SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA INTO
THE MORNING HOURS. STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE MID
LEVELS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL LEAD TO MEAN GUSTS
AROUND 30-35 KT THROUGH THE MIXED LAYER WORKING TO THE
SURFACE...ESPECIALLY ONCE CLOUDS CLEAR OUT...THOUGH NO ADVISORY
LEVEL GUSTS ANTICIPATED.
THE NEXT RIPPLE IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL WORK SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT...BRINGING ANOTHER CLIPPER ACROSS
THE IL/WI BORDER. AS WITH MANY CLIPPER SYSTEMS...THIS ONE WILL BE
RATHER MOISTURE DEVOID. ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS SHOWCASES THE BEST
UPGLIDE HAPPENING OVERNIGHT...WITH A LOT BEING WASTED ON
SATURATION IN THE 06 TO 12Z TIMEFRAME. GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE RATES
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND WEAK Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE...WILL
KEEP THE MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE MORNING HOURS OF
SUNDAY...BUT STILL KEEPING TOTALS LOW...AND WOULD BE SURPRISED IF
MORE THAN A QUARTER TO HALF OF AN INCH OF SNOW ARE SQUEEZED OUT
ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES.
THE PATTERN FOR THE PREVIOUS DAY AND NEXT FEW DAYS IS ACTING LIKE A
BROKEN RECORD. SNOW A LITTLE...CLEAR OUT...SLOWLY COOL...INCREASE
CLOUDS AND START OVER. SUNDAY WILL BE SIMILAR WITH ONE MINOR
EXCEPTION. LIGHT CAA WILL CONTINUE ALLOWING SUNDAY TEMPERATURES TO
SWING A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY. THE NEXT RIPPLE IN THE FLOW
WILL AGAIN COME RACING SOUTH THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA...BUT
THIS TIME IS PROGGED TO REMAIN NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AS THE WAVE APPROACHES.
THE START OF THE WEEK WILL BE SIMILAR TO FLIPPING AN OLD LP RECORD
FROM SIDE A TO SIDE B. THE PERSISTENT AND MINUSCULE WAVES THAT
HAVE BEEN DIVING THROUGH HERE...WITH ABOUT A 24 HOUR
PERIODICITY...WILL COME TO AN END AS FLOW ALOFT ATTEMPTS TO
BECOME ZONAL AS THE LARGE WEST COAST RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL SQUEEZE OUT AND SOUTH
OF THE REGION AND TAKE RESIDENCE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS.
THIS WILL ALLOW LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW TO BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY...BRINGING IN UNSEASONABLE WARMTH...AGAIN. HIGHS
MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY ARE LOOKING TO RANGE FROM 10 TO
POTENTIALLY WELL OVER 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. THE SECOND LAW OF THERMODYNAMICS STATES THAT FOR EVERY
ACTION...THERE IS AN EQUAL AND OPPOSITE REACTION. THANKFULLY THE
ATMOSPHERIC REACTION TO THE WARMTH WILL NOT HAPPEN QUICKLY.
DESPITE CONTINUED MODEL VARIANCES THESE LAST FEW NIGHTS...LONG
RANGE MODELS ARE STILL IN AGREEMENT WITH A WAVE DEEPENING ACROSS
THE PLAINS AND LIFTING ACROSS IL/WI BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE
LATEST EC HAS COME INTO AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS...AND EVEN SREF TO
SOME RESPECTS...WITH MOVING A SURFACE FEATURE ACROSS THE AREA. I
SAY FEATURE AT THIS POINT...BEING 96 HOURS OUT...AS THE MODELS
STILL DIFFER WITH RESPECT TO EITHER HAVING A LOW LIFT ACROSS THE
BORDER...OR ELSE KEEP THE LOW TO THE NORTHWEST AND LIFT A WARM
FRONT ACROSS...BEFORE BOTH SHIFT A COLD FRONT THROUGH.
REGARDLESS...DID UP POP CHANCES MID WEEK IN THE TUES AFTERNOON/EVE
WINDOW. WITH STRONG WAA UNDERWAY...PROFILES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT RAIN UNTIL THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF WEDNESDAY...WHEN THE
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES MAY SEE A RAIN AND SNOW MIX.
SHEA
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 12Z...
* DEPARTING MVFR CIGS.
* WESTERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 30 KT OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER TODAY.
* WINDS TURNING SOUTHWEST BY EVENING.
* SNOW CHANCES LATE TONIGHT.
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
A STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THROUGH
LOWER MICHIGAN AND INDIANA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION. THESE WINDS WILL BECOME
SOLIDLY DUE WEST BY LATE MORNING AND INCREASE IN MAGNITUDE...WITH
GUSTS TO AT LEAST 27 KT WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. EVEN A FEW GUSTS TO
33 KT ARE POSSIBLE. AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST THIS EVENING...THE WINDS WILL RESPOND BY TURNING
SOUTHWEST IN ADVANCE. OCCASIONAL GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT...AS
THE WINDS IMMEDIATELY OFF THE SURFACE WILL BE QUITE STRONG.
BETWEEN 1500 AND 2500 FT...SOUTHWEST WINDS TONIGHT ARE LIKELY TO
BE AROUND 40 KT. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES LATE TONIGHT...AND AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALOFT INTERACTS WITH THE FRONT...SPOTTY
SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES ARE LIKELY TO BE GENERATED. UNDER
THESE...SOME BRIEF REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY CAN BE FAVORED. CIGS
ARE LIKELY TO LOWER TO MVFR BY MORNING. WIND SPEEDS WILL AGAIN BE
GUSTY FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY...THOUGH NOT AS HIGH IN
SPEED AS TODAY.
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 12Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL ELEMENTS THROUGH TODAY. WIND DIRECTION
MAY BACK AS MUCH AS 240 TO 250 DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
* SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS EVENING MAY HAVE OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20
KT...BUT CONFIDENCE ON GUST MAGNITUDE IS LOW.
* CONFIDENCE IN SNOW OCCURRING TONIGHT IS LOW...BUT IF IT DOES THE
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT IT WILL ONLY BRIEFLY REDUCE VISIBILITY
WITH TOTAL ACCUMULATION OF 0.2 OF AN INCH OR LESS.
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR.
MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...IFR CIGS POSSIBLE. CHANCE OF RAIN/DRIZZLE.
WEDNESDAY...MORNING MVFR POSSIBLE.
THURSDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY...VFR.
MTF
&&
.MARINE...
226 AM CST
AN ACTIVE PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE LAKES BASICALLY
THROUGH TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY EVEN FURTHER. AS A COLD FRONT CLEARS
THE LAKE NEAR DAYBREAK...COLDER AIR WILL ADVECT OVER THE REGION
WITHIN A STRONG NORTHWEST PUSH OF WINDS. TOGETHER THIS WILL HELP TO
STEEPEN LAPSE RATES AND PROMOTE GALE FORCE WESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN LAKE...INCLUDING NEARSHORE AREAS OF IL AND IN...AND
SPREADING TO THE NORTH OPEN WATERS BY LATE MORNING. WHILE GALE FORCE
GUSTS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING...WINDS WILL GENERALLY STAY
AT LEAST 20 KT THROUGH SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING AS ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE AREA MOVES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES. WINDS WILL TURN
SOUTHERLY FROM MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH A WARM FRONT MOVING
NORTH ACROSS THE LAKE. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
LAKE BY LATE TUESDAY. WITH THIS FEATURE GALE FORCE GUSTS MAY AGAIN
BE POSSIBLE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD. AT THIS TIME...A SLIGHTLY QUIETER
PATTERN UNDER WEAK RIDGING IS FAVORED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST
WINDS.
MTF
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-
LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 UNTIL 9 PM
SATURDAY.
GALE WARNING...NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 6
PM SATURDAY.
GALE WARNING...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565...10 AM
SATURDAY TO 9 PM SATURDAY.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
948 AM EST SAT JAN 28 2012
.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF FRONTS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK BRINGING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ALONG WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS
AT TIMES. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE...
ESPECIALLY FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS SURGED EAST OF THE REGION THIS MORNING TAKING
ALL OF THE SNOW WITH IT. SKIES HAVE RAPIDLY CLEARED IN WAKE OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS MUCH DRIER AIR AND DEEPER SUBSIDENCE
OVERSPREAD CENTRAL INDIANA. TEMPS WERE RUNNING BETWEEN 30 AND 35
DEGREES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS OF 14Z.
MAIN FEATURE OF THE MORNING UPDATE WAS TO FRESHEN THE FORECAST AND
REMOVE ALL MENTION OF SNOW CHANCES. ALSO UPDATED SKY GRIDS WITH
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BY 16Z.
COMBINATION OF COLD ADVECTION AND STRONG LOW LEVEL JET ROTATING
THROUGH THE REGION WILL SERVE TO KEEP WIND GUSTS AT 30-35MPH INTO
THE MID AFTERNOON. MOST RECENT RUC GUIDANCE INDICATING THAT THE
JET SHOULD SHIFT NORTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES PULLS AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST.
MAY SEE GUSTS DROP OFF A BIT AS A RESULT DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE AFTERNOON...BUT EXPECT WIND GUSTS TO PERSIST IN SOME FASHION
UNTIL SUNSET. TWEAKED HIGH TEMPS DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO BASED ON
CURRENT READINGS AND THE COUNTERACTING IMPACT OF THE COLD
ADVECTION INTO THE AFTERNOON EVEN WITH FULL SUN ANTICIPATED.
ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR SNOW AND WINDS SUNDAY. MODELS ARE CLOSE
ENOUGH THAT A BLEND CAN BE USED FOR MOST FEATURES.
TONIGHT WILL BE DRY AS CLOUDS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. AT
THE MOMENT FEEL THAT THE SNOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL REMAIN JUST
WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH 12Z...SO KEPT FORECAST AREA DRY TONIGHT.
WINDS SHOULD STAY UP WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS PLUS
INCREASING CLOUDS LEADS TO LOW TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE MAV MOS.
FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY ALONG WITH SOME UPPER
SUPPORT. Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE FORECASTS ARE ACTUALLY HIGHER FOR
SUNDAY THAN SATURDAY INDICATING BETTER FORCING. HOWEVER MOISTURE
WILL NOT BE AS PLENTIFUL. GIVEN THE FORCING WILL GO ABOVE MOS POPS
BUT STILL KEEP POPS IN CHANCE CATEGORY. BEST FORCING/MOISTURE
COMBINATION WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA SO WILL GO
HIGHEST POPS THERE. THE SOUTHWEST THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD
BE FAR ENOUGH REMOVED FROM FORCING/MOISTURE TO GO WITH A DRY
FORECAST THERE.
DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW BREEZY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ON
SUNDAY...WITH SOME MIXING ALLOWING GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH ONCE AGAIN.
MOS TEMPERATURES LOOK OK NORTH ON SUNDAY BUT LOOK A BIT WARM SOUTH
GIVEN EXPECTED COLD ADVECTION.
A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FOR MONDAY. WITH
THE LIMITED FORCING AND MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONT DECIDED TO CONTINUE
A DRY FORECAST SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAIN CHALLENGE TO THE EXTENDED WILL BE POPS ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE
PERIOD. THE 00Z ECMWF IS NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z GFS
AND ENSEMBLES AS IT IS DRY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THE
CR INITIALIZATION WAS GIVING US SMALL POPS. WITH THE MODELS BEING
INCONSISTENT OVER THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS AND AFTER COORDINATING WITH
ADJACENT OFFICES...WILL GO AHEAD AND KEEP THEM IN DESPITE DRY 00Z
MODEL CONSENSUS. COULD SEE A MIX THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ALL RAIN FRIDAY
AHEAD OF SEPARATE UPPER TROUGHS. PRIOR TO THURSDAY NIGHT...MODELS IN
A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT ON A FRONT MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
MIDWEEK WHICH WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE FIRST OF TWO UPPER TROUGHS AND TO THE
NORTH OF A SURFACE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS KENTUCKY. THESE TWO TROUGHS
WILL HELP BRING SOME COLDER AIR ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA LATE IN THE
WEEK REPLACING A VERY MILD AIRMASS WITH EARLY AND MID WEEK HIGHS IN
THE 50S.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 281500Z TAF UPDATE/...
UPDATE...
BUMPED WINDS UP A FEW KNOTS. OTHER THAN THAT...SKIES ARE CLEARING
OUT AS EXPECTED. KIND AND KBMG HAVE ALREADY RETURNED TO VFR
CATEGORY...AND KLAF AND KHUF SHOULD FOLLOW SHORTLY.
RADAR AND OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS ALONG WITH THE RAPID REFRESH AND
AWIPS DISTANCE SPEED TOOL ALL SUGGEST THE EDGE OF THE SNOW AND COLD
FRONT WILL BE KNOCKING ON THE DOOR AT HUF AND LAF AT 12Z WHERE
CEILINGS SHOULD BE MVFR AND WINDS WILL BECOME WEST AND GUST TO
AROUND 20 KNOTS. SKIES SHOULD THEN CLEAR THERE BY 14Z AND WINDS
SHOULD INCREASE TO NEAR 20 KNOTS WITH NEAR 30 KNOT GUSTS AFTER 16Z.
MEANWHILE...IND SHOULD START OUT WITH IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
IN SNOW AND THEN FOLLOW THE TRENDS OF LAF AND HUF AFTER 14Z. BMG
SHOULD DO THE SAME EXCEPT...THE SNOW SHOULD BE MIXED WITH RAIN.
THEN...EXPECT AND INCREASE IN MID CLOUDS AFTER 00Z WITH WINDS
SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST AT 10 KNOTS OR SLIGHTLY MORE AHEAD OF
ANOTHER COLD FRONT THAT WILL PASS THROUGH SUNDAY AFTER 12Z. THIS
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING MVFR CONDITIONS AND MORE GUSTY WINDS FROM
THE WEST TO NEAR 30 KNOTS TO THE IND VICINITY WITH FROPA AROUND 15Z.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...MK/TDUD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
506 AM EST SAT JAN 28 2012
.SHORT TERM...
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. FEW CHNGS TO ONGOING FCST NEEDED.
PRIMARY FOCUS ON SHARP BACK EDGE/DRYING IN WAKE OF CLIPPER WITH
VEERED UPSTREAM FLOW TO HAVE DELETERIOUS EFFECT ON AVBL THETA-E
WITHIN SFC-8H LYR. CRNT INDICATION OF SLIGHTLY HIR REFL IN HIGH
RES REFL CURVE W/BANDED RETURNS LIFTING ENEWD THROUGH CWA...NOW
FM DEKALB INTO SRN KOSCIUSKO COUNTY. NOTED AREA COINCIDENT WITH
TRANSLATION OF MIDLVL HGHT FALLS/ASCENT IN THIS RAPID MIDLVL FLOW
REGIME ACRS SRN GRTLKS. WITH SFC TEMPS 0-1C ACRS CWA WL LKLY NEED
THESE BRIEF HIR RETURNS TO REALIZE SOME SPOT HIR AMOUNTS IN 1 TO
2 INCH RANGE BEFORE SETTLING/GRDL MELT REDUCES DEPTH. BY MIDDAY
TRANSITION TO MINOR LAKE EFFECT COMPONENT...HOWEVER SVRL IMPEDING
COMPONENT NOTED...FOREMOST WITH FAR SRN LAKE MICHIGAN MLYR THERMAL
INSTABILITY LAGGING WITH LK/8H DELTA RUNNING 13-14C THIS
AFTERNOON. SHORT RESIDENCE TIME IN 30-40 KT CBL FLOW WITH DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT PER MID TEENS SFC DPS ADVECTING UPWIND OF LK MI AS
WELL. SLIGHT MOD TO TAKE SRN FRINGE OF SCT -SHSN A BIT FURTHER NWD
GIVEN NAM/HRRR SUPPORT FOR LTL MORE THAN FLURRIES KSBN VCNTY EWD
ALONG TOLL ROAD. RAPID INVERSION CRASH/BACKING FLOW REMOVED ALL
MENTION TONIGHT SAVE FOR FAR NRN BERRIEN CO AS LAKE PROCESSES SHUT
COMPLETELY. GOOD AGREEMENT IN INTER/INTRA MODEL TIMING/STRENGTH OF
SECOND CLIPPER EVEN WEAKER/LESS GROSS MSTR AVAILABILITY AND SHORT
WINDOW FOR ACCUM POTNL SUNDAY MORNING. ANTICIPATE LITTLE MORE THAN
SKIFF AMNTS ALL BUT NRN THIRD CWA WHERE BETTER SATURATION/LIFT IS
COINCIDENT IN THIN DENDRITIC FAVORED LYR.
SLGHT MOD TO CRNT FCST/BIAS CORRECTED MOS BLEND WITH SLIGHT LWRG
TODAY/TONIGHT IN DEFERENCE TO THIN SNOW COVER/M2-M3C COOLING IN
SFC-8H LYR TODAY...AND NONDIURNAL/MORE RAPID COOLING POTNL
TONIGHT PER LESSER CLOUD COVER IN 00-06UTC SUN TIMEFRAME.
&&
.LONG TERM...
LACK OF NORTH ATLANTIC DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING...COMBINED WITH A
PERSISTENT DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PAC INTO NE
RUSSIA...WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FAST NW FLOW THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WITH MILD PAC DOWNSLOPE FLOW. INHERENT DIFFICULTY IN
RESOLVING THIS TYPE OF FLOW PATTERN IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WILL
SUPPORT A TREND TOWARD FORECAST CONSISTENCY/PERSISTENCE PER
POPS...WHICH IS ALSO IN LINE WITH FLOW PATTERN CONCERNS. THIS IS
ESPECIALLY TRUE GIVEN POORLY ANALYZED TURBULENT NORTHERN STREAM FLOW
WITH ROCKIES INTERACTION. JET CORES/ASSOCIATED SUBTLE WAVES/AND CAA
PROCESSES ARE FAR FROM BEING RESOLVED...AND ATTM WILL SIDE HEAVY
TOWARD FORECAST PERSISTENCE...WHICH INCLUDES A WX MENTION FOR THE
THE TWO IMPULSES EXPECTED TO ADVECT THROUGH THE FLOW. THE ECMWF
REMAINS THE MODEL OF CHOICE. HOWEVER...IT/S SOLUTIONS ARE EXHIBITING
TRACK/STRENGTH DIFFERENCES PER THE LATE PERIOD THUR IMPULSE...WITH A
STRONG SOUTHERN BIAS NOTED IN THE 00Z RUN.
MONDAY...HEIGHT/THERMAL RISES EXPECTED INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF A
STRONGER DIGGING UPPER TROUGH...SUPPORTING A FRONTOLYTIC RESPONSE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. EMBEDDED FLOW IMPULSES WILL LIKELY
SUPPORT HIGH CENTERED LIFT...WITH ELEVATED SATURATION ABOVE A VERY
DRY SUB CLOUD LAYER. SNOW WILL BE A POSSIBILITY ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHERN ZONES. HOWEVER...BEST FORCING FOR ASCENT AND SATURATION
WILL LIKELY OCCUR NORTH OF THE REGION. WILL LEAVE FORECAST MAINLY
DRY...SAVE FOR A SMALL CHANCE SNOW MENTION CROSS THE FAR NORTH. DO
PREFER THE COOLER NUMBERS SUGGESTED IN THE ECMWF GIVEN EXPECTED
CLOUD COVER WITH SFC PRESSURE FALLS...LIKELY SUPPORTING A BACKED LL
WIND FIELD.
TUE-FRI...WARM/MILD CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH PASSING IMPULSES
EXPECTED TO SUPPORT PRECIP AT TIMES IN THE PERIOD. BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIP LOOKS TO BE IN THE TUE-TUE NIGHT PERIOD GIVEN CONTINUED
PROGGED SUFFICIENT LL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE EXPECTED UPPER IMPULSE.
DRY CONDITIONS STILL FAVORED WED...GIVEN WIDESPREAD MODEL SUPPORT
FOR SFC RIDGING. THUR STILL REMAINS QUESTIONABLE GIVEN AN EJECTING
SW CONUS UPPER TROUGH. IF NORTHERN STREAM PHASING DEVELOPS...A
SLOWER AND MORE NORTHERN BIAS TO THE SFC LOW TRACK WOULD BE
EXPECTED. LEFT PREVIOUS FORECAST NUMBERS WHICH COVER THESE CONCERNS.
AGAIN...MILD CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS TEMPS WILL APPROACH 50 IN THE
PERIOD...ESP SOUTH TUE IF ENOUGH INSOLATION IS ATTAINED. HAVE
CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION /06 UTC TAFS/...
LEADING EDGE OF RAPID DETERIORATING FLIGHT CONDS INTO KSBN-KFWA LINE
ATTM WITH PRIMARY FOCUS ONTO BREVITY OF ANTICIPATED LIFR MET CONDS
AT KSBN AS SUBCLOUD LYR RAPIDLY SATURATES NEXT HOUR THEN HONED END
TIME AS FOCUS FOR LIFT MOVES RAPIDLY EWD. SIMILARLY AT KFWA SLIGHTLY
BETTER OVERALL CONDS FORECAST...GIVEN BOTH ANTECEDENT LARGE
900-700MB DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AND BEING MORE ON SRN PERIPHERY OF
STRONGER LIFT. LEANED HEAVILY ONTO HRRR TRENDS FOR RAPIDLY IMPROVING
CONDS 12-14 UTC WITH CLIPPER FOLLOWED BY SIG STRONGER SFC FLOW/GUSTS
PER INCRSD DOWNWARD MOMENTUM XFER AS SFC-800MB LAPSE RATES STEEPEN.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 100 AM EST SAT JAN 28 2012/
AVIATION /06 UTC TAFS/...
LEADING EDGE OF RAPID DETERIORATING FLIGHT CONDS INTO KSBN-KFWA LINE
ATTM WITH PRIMARY FOCUS ONTO BREVITY OF ANTICIPATED LIFR MET CONDS
AT KSBN AS SUBCLOUD LYR RAPIDLY SATURATES NEXT HOUR THEN HONED END
TIME AS FOCUS FOR LIFT MOVES RAPIDLY EWD. SIMILARLY AT KFWA SLIGHTLY
BETTER OVERALL CONDS FORECAST...GIVEN BOTH ANTECEDENT LARGE
900-700MB DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AND BEING MORE ON SRN PERIPHERY OF
STRONGER LIFT. LEANED HEAVILY ONTO HRRR TRENDS FOR RAPIDLY IMPROVING
CONDS 12-14 UTC WITH CLIPPER FOLLOWED BY SIG STRONGER SFC FLOW/GUSTS
PER INCRSD DOWNWARD MOMENTUM XFER AS SFC-800MB LAPSE RATES STEEPEN.
UPDATE...
CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS SEEM TO BE SUPPORTING PREVIOUS
FORECAST TO THIS POINT. INCREASE IN RADAR RETURNS NOTED THE PAST
FEW HOURS ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS DOWNSTREAM OF THE STRONGER UPPER
LEVEL FORCING JUST NOW EXITING THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A WEAKLY
FRONTOGENETIC FLOW APPEARS TO BE SETTING UP AND ENHANCING A FAIRLY
STRONG LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIBBON (-5 DEG CELSIUS PER 00Z KDVN RAOB
AND +1 DEG CELSIUS PER 00Z KILN RAOB). HIGHER RESOLUTION MODEL
OUTPUT AND EVEN NAM40 APPEAR TO HAVE SOME INDICATION OF THIS WEST
TO EAST EXPANSION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA INITIALLY. ISENTROPIC PROGS OF
285K SFC ALSO SUGGEST SOME INCREASING ISENTROPIC ASCENT LATER THIS
EVENING ACROSS NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA EVENTUALLY ALLOWING
SNOW TO OVERSPREAD NWRN HALF OF THE AREA TOWARD 06Z. EVEN SOME
REPORTS OF SOME -RA WITH BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID
30S ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS. DID ADD A CHANCE RAIN/SNOW
MENTION ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING BUT WILL
STAY WITH PREDOMINATELY SNOW FOR THE OVERNIGHT.
PREVIOUS FCSTED SNOW AMOUNTS STILL APPEAR REASONABLE WITH A
POSSIBILITY OF TWO AREAS OF SLIGHTLY ENHANCED MAXIMUM
SNOWFALL...ONE ACROSS FAR NWRN IND/SWRN LWR MICHIGAN WITH SOME
WEAK LAKE ENHANCEMENT...AND ANOTHER POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHWEST
PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHERE A PERIOD OF SOME BETTER WEST TO EAST
BANDING IS POSSIBLE DURING EARLIER STAGES OF THE OVERNIGHT. SOME
OF THE INITIAL LIFT LATER THIS EVENING HOWEVER WILL BE SPENT TOWARD
ERODING A FAIRLY PRONOUNCED DRY LAYER EVIDENT IN THE 900 TO 750
HPA LAYER ON THIS EVENINGS REGIONAL AMDAR SOUNDINGS. ALL IN
ALL...1 TO 2 INCH SNOW AMOUNTS APPEAR TO BE INLINE AS UPPER
FORCING INCREASES WITH BETTER DEEPER SATURATION OVERNIGHT.
SLIGHTLY LESSER AMOUNTS EXPECTED ACROSS FAR EAST/SOUTHEAST WHERE
ISENTROPIC/FRONTOGENESIS PROGS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE QUITE AS
IMPRESSIVE.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 727 PM EST FRI JAN 27 2012/
AVIATION...
00Z TAFS...SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM. IN THE MEANTIME...SOME FAIRLY DRY LOW LEVEL AIR NOTED IN
THIS EVENINGS REGIONAL AMDAR SOUNDINGS. MORE IMPRESSIVE BAND OF
SNOW PER REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC/SFC EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN MISSOURI
INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND EASTWARD THIS
EVENING IN ASSOCIATION WITH SOME LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS FORCING.
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT
FURTHER TO THE NORTH ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA AND SHOULD SEE AN
EXPANSION OF -SN ACROSS FAR NRN INDIANA TOWARD MIDNIGHT ALONG WITH
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS TO IFR AND POSSIBLY SHORTER LIVED LIFR
WITH HEAVIER SNOW BURSTS OVERNIGHT. PREVIOUS TIMING IN TAFS STILL
LOOKS REASONABLE...WITH ONSET OF SNOW AT 05Z AT KSBN AND SHORTLY
AFTER THIS TIME AT KFWA. SNOW SHOULD END FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE
11Z-13Z TIMEFRAME. WEST WINDS EARLY THIS EVENING WILL VEER
SOUTHWEST TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT...AND THEN SHIFT TO
THE WEST WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DEEP WESTERLY FLOW WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR A
WINDY DAY ON SATURDAY WITH LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON GUSTS INTO THE
30 TO 35 KNOT RANGE.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 434 PM EST FRI JAN 27 2012/
SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THE CHALLENGES THIS PERIOD INCLUDE
THE TIMING AND AMOUNTS OF SNOW FROM AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM REACHING
THE AREA TONIGHT...AND ANOTHER SYSTEM SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR THIS
PACKAGE...PREFERRED THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NCEP MODELS WHICH APPEAR
TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THIS SYSTEM. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
INCREASE RAPIDLY TONIGHT WITH MOISTURE ON THE 285K SFC BETWEEN 2
AND 3 G/KG. USING THE GARCIA METHOD WITH THIS ENVIRONMENT YIELDS 2
TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW USING A 6 HOUR DURATION INPUT TIME. HOWEVER...
SOME CONCERN FOR SATURATION TIME AND MELTING SUGGESTS 1 TO 2
INCH SNOW AMOUNTS ARE MORE REASONABLE. CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE
THAT THE MOISTURE DEPTH IS SUFFICIENT FOR SNOW AND THE MAXIMUM
OMEGA FIELD INTERSECTS THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE VERY WELL.
CURRENT THINKING IS WIDESPREAD SNOW FROM AFTER MIDNIGHT ENDING
SATURDAY MORNING. DOWNWARD MOTION BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD HELP
WITH A RAPID END OF SNOW...ALTHOUGH WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY. AS FOR THE SYSTEM SATURDAY NIGHT...MUCH WEAKER LIFT
AND LIMITED MOISTURE INDICATE ANY SNOW AMOUNTS LESS THAN AN INCH.
LONG TERM...
NRN STREAM SW TROUGH OVR NWRN BC WILL AMPLIFY SEWD THROUGH THE SHRT
TERM AS MEAN ERN CONUS MID LVL TROUGH DEEPENS. 12Z SOLUTIONS ACRS
THE BOARD ARE MORE ROBUST ALOFT ESP THE GEM AND SUGGEST SOME UPWARD
BUMPING TO POPS IN ORDER ESP IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM OF THE LK ACRS
SW MI IN RESPONSE TO PASSAGE OF SECONDARY CAA BURST DURING THE DAY
SUN.
OTHERWISE PRIMARY THEME THIS PD IS FOR DEAMPLIFICATION THROUGH MID
PD FOLLOWED BY MORE SIG WRN RIDGE/ERN TROUGH DVLPMNT TWD DY8. GIVEN
FAST FLW ALOFT...DETAIL PREDICTABILITY REMAINS LOW AND CAN NOT
ARGUE AGAINST LWR BOUND CHC POPS THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE DY5-8 PD
GIVEN UNSETTLED/DISTURBANCE RIDDLED STREAM FLW THAT EXTENDS BACK
ACRS THE NPAC. LEAD IMPULSE MARKING THIS CHG RIDES EWD THROUGH THE
NRN PLAINS/SE CANADA MID PD W/SIG WARMING ANTICIPATED LOCALLY ESP
TUE/WED COINCIDENT W/LL THERMAL RIDGE SHIFTING ACRS THE AREA. AND AS
MENTIONED IN PRIOR DISC...SOME AREAS MAY WARM INTO THE 50S AS ELUDED
TO IN LATEST 12Z GFS MOS GUIDANCE ESP IF GREATER THAN ANTICIPATED
INSOLATION IS REALIZED.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...MURPHY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
1020 AM EST SAT JAN 28 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE BY JUST NORTH OF THE REGION TODAY AND BRING
A ROUND OF WET SNOW WHICH WILL STRUGGLE TO ACCUMULATE AS TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING. IT WILL ALSO BECOME WINDY TODAY
AND TONIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES BY. SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL
DEVELOP EAST OF THE LAKES TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER FAST MOVING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGING A GENERAL LIGHT SNOWFALL TO THE AREA
SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY MORE LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST OF THE LAKES SUNDAY
NIGHT. A THIRD FAST MOVING SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER GENERAL LIGHT
SNOW TO THE REGION LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER
SIGNIFICANT WARM UP BY MIDWEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THROUGH 1000 AM...SNOW HAS MOVED IN JUST A TAD FASTER THAN MOST
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS INDICATED. WITH TEMPERATURES STILL COOLER FROM
LAST NIGHT...THIS HAS ALLOWED PRECIPITATION TO START OFF AS ALL
SNOW IN MOST LOCATIONS. FOUND MOST MODELS CONTINUE TO BE
SLOW...BUT ONLY BY AN HOUR OR TWO...WITH THE HRRR PROVIDING THE
MOST USEFUL GUIDANCE.
BOTH THE HRRR AND RADAR TRENDS SHOW THIS INITIAL BAND LIFTING
ACROSS NW NY FROM DUNKIRK TO ROCHESTER NORTHWARD THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING A DECENT BUT BRIEF PERIOD OF
SNOW...GENERALLY AMOUNTING TO LESS THAN AN INCH AS IT SHOULD
STRUGGLE TO ACCUMULATE WITH ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER
ROUND WHICH IS ACROSS NE OHIO LATE THIS MORNING SHOULD LIFT ACROSS
AS WELL...WITH THIS THE AREA THE NAM/RGEM/GFS HAVE BEEN KEYING ON.
THIS SHOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION...WITH ROUGHLY
.10 OF QPF WITH THIS. WHILE THE 12Z BUF SOUNDING SHOWED A WARM AND
DRY LAYER BETWEEN 850 MB AND 600 MB...THIS HAS CERTAINLY SATURATED
AND COOLED. WHILE DOWNSLOPING SHOULD HELP WARM TEMPERATURES A
BIT...NOW EXPECT MOST HEAVIER PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS SNOW EARLY
AFTERNOON AS WELL...THOUGH THE WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD
LIMIT ACCUMULATION. EXPECT THE SECOND BAND (EARLY AFTERNOON BAND)
TO ACCUMULATE LITTLE ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER. HOWEVER...IT MAY
BRING A SLUSHY INCH TO HIGHER TERRAIN IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER...AND PERHAPS HIGHER TERRAIN IN SOUTHERN
ERIE/WYOMING COUNTIES.
SUMMARY OF CHANGES IN THE UPDATE...NUDGE UP TIMING OF PRECIPITATION
BY AN HOUR OR TWO. NUDGE DOWN FORECAST HIGHS. SPEED UP THE FRONT
BY AN HOUR OR SO.
IT WILL BECOME QUITE WINDY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE SURFACE LOW PASSING ACROSS
SOUTHERN QUEBEC...AND HIGH PRESSURE PARKED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. LOW
LEVEL COLD ADVECTION BY LATE AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW LAPSE RATES TO
STEEPEN AND ENHANCE MIXING OF STRONGER 40-45 KNOT WINDS ALOFT DOWN
TO THE SURFACE. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF A LITTLE FROM PREVIOUS
RUNS ON THE STRENGTH OF WINDS ALOFT AND MIXING POTENTIAL...SO IT
APPEARS WINDS WILL REMAIN JUST BARELY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE LIKELY IN A 4-6 HOUR PERIOD FROM THE LAKE ERIE
SHORE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER TO ROCHESTER...AND ALSO
ALONG THE EASTERN SHORES OF LAKE ONTARIO WITH GUSTS IN THE 40-45 MPH
RANGE IN BOTH THESE LOCATIONS. FARTHER INLAND GUSTS WILL RANGE FROM
30-40 MPH.
FOLLOWING THE SYSTEM TONIGHT OUR ATTENTION TURNS TO LAKE EFFECT
POTENTIAL.
OFF LAKE ERIE...THE SETUP IS QUITE MARGINAL AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY QUICKLY NOSES NORTH WITH A RAPID LOSS OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE OVERNIGHT. THERE STILL SHOULD BE A BRIEF 2-4 HOUR
WINDOW DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHERE LAKE INDUCED
CAPES IMPROVE TO AROUND 8-10K FEET IN WSW FLOW. GUSTY WINDS AND A
LACK OF UPSTREAM CONNECTION SHOULD KEEP THIS RATHER DISORGANIZED...
WITH SNOW SHOWERS FOCUSING ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SKI COUNTRY.
EXPECT ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-2 INCHES ON THE HILLS THIS EVENING WITH A
DIMINISHING TREND OVERNIGHT AS THE COLUMN QUICKLY DRYS OUT. WHATEVER
REMAINS WILL DRIFT NORTH TOWARDS THE BUFFALO SOUTHTOWNS LATE
TONIGHT...BUT DONT EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN SCATTERED FLURRIES OR LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS TO BE LEFT.
OFF LAKE ONTARIO...CONDITIONS ARE MORE FAVORABLE WITH A WARMER
LAKE...A LITTLE DEEPER COLD AIR...AND PROSPECTS OF AN UPSTREAM
CONNECTION TO LAKE HURON. LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS ARE
FORECAST TO PEAK AROUND 15K FEET TONIGHT...AND MOST OF THE MESOSCALE
MODEL GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE CANADIAN REGIONAL GEM...WORKSTATION WRF
AND THE HIGH RES WRF-ARW DEVELOP AND UPSTREAM CONNECTION TO LAKE
HURON BANDING OVERNIGHT...WHICH ACTS TO ENHANCE BOTH MOISTURE AND
CONVERGENCE. ALL THREE OF THESE MODELS DEVELOP A PLUME OF MODERATE
QPF OVERNIGHT. THE MEAN BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW SETTLES TO ABOUT 260
OVERNIGHT...WHICH SHOULD FAVOR A BAND ACROSS SOUTHERN JEFFERSON AND
NORTH CENTRAL LEWIS COUNTY...ROUGHLY FROM ADAMS TO BARNES CORNERS
AND CROGHAN.
WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND...WE WILL HOIST A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY
FOR JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES STARTING EARLY THIS EVENING AND
RUNNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECT TOTAL ACCUMS OF 4-7 INCHES
WITHIN THE BAND MENTIONED ABOVE. IT WILL BE A CLOSE CALL IN FAR
NORTHERN OSWEGO COUNTY WITH SOME UPSLOPE SUPPORTING A FEW INCHES
NEAR REDFIELD...BUT THE MEAN 260 WIND DIRECTION SHOULD KEEP THE
ADVISORY AMOUNTS JUST NORTH OF THE COUNTY LINE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ON SUNDAY...YET ANOTHER POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PRESS EAST
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE
WAVE ALSO SLIDING EAST FROM LOWER MICHIGAN INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK BY
THE END OF THE DAY. IN ADVANCE OF THIS WAVE...THE COMBINATION OF
MODEST WARMING ALOFT AND AN INCREASINGLY SHEARED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL ACT TO DISRUPT ANY LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS NORTHEAST
OF THE LAKES DURING THE COURSE OF SUNDAY MORNING...WITH THIS PROCESS
TAKING PLACE FAIRLY EARLY IN THE DAY OFF LAKE ERIE...AND BY THE MID
TO LATE MORNING HOURS OFF LAKE ONTARIO. THEREAFTER...A SWATH OF MORE
GENERAL SYNOPTICALLY-DRIVEN SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE
AREA FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE
SURFACE WAVE. WITH BOTH THE NAM/GFS NOW BOTH INDICATING A FAVORABLE
SWATH OF LIFT AND MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING THE WAVE...HAVE BUMPED POPS
FOR THIS TIME FRAME UP TO THE HIGH LIKELY RANGE. AT THIS
POINT...MODEL QPF CONSENSUS SUPPORTS FAIRLY WIDESPREAD LIGHT
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS RANGING FROM AN INCH OR LESS IN MOST PLACES
DURING SUNDAY...TO AS MUCH AS 1-2 INCHES IN THE TYPICAL AREAS OF
TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT EAST OF THE LAKES.
SUNDAY EVENING...THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW WILL
QUICKLY EXIT TO THE EAST WITH ANY SYNOPTICALLY-DRIVEN SNOW SHOWERS
ALSO QUICKLY DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE EVENING...WITH
ANOTHER GENERAL INCH OR LESS OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE FOR SITES EAST
OF THE GENESEE VALLEY. AT THE SAME TIME HOWEVER...MESOSCALE
PROCESSES WILL AGAIN BECOME MORE DOMINANT AS A WESTERLY TO
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OF COLDER AIR OVERSPREADS THE LOWER LAKES
BEHIND THE DEPARTING WAVE...WITH 850 MB TEMPS FALLING FROM -8C TO
-11C AT THE START OF THE NIGHT TO ABOUT -14C/-15C BY MIDNIGHT. THIS
WILL TRIGGER THE REDEVELOPMENT OF SOME ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT
SNOWS TO THE EAST AND EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BOTH LAKES...WITH THE
ACTIVITY PEAKING BETWEEN THE EARLY TO MID EVENING AND EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS...THEN WEAKENING THEREAFTER AS STRONG LOW LEVEL
RIDGING AND INCREASING AMOUNTS OF DRIER AIR/SUBSIDENCE BUILD EAST
FROM THE CENTRAL LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. AT THIS JUNCTURE...FEEL THE
RELATIVELY SHORT-LIVED NATURE OF THE MOST FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WOULD
TEND TO RESULT IN POTENTIAL ADVISORY-TYPE ACCUMULATIONS EAST AND
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BOTH LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCES
FOR THIS COMING EAST-SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS WILL BE SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE OVERALL.
DURING MONDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT
EAST TO EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WHILE THE NEXT
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHES EAST INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. IN
BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...A WARM ADVECTION PATTERN WILL SET UP
ACROSS THE AREA...WHILE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK TO
SOUTHWESTERLY OR EVEN SOUTHERLY AND BECOME RATHER SHEARED. THIS WILL
RESULT IN THE LAKE SNOWS CONTINUING TO WEAKEN WHILE LIFTING BACK
NORTH TO THE BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN AREAS...WITH THIS WEAKENING MOST
PRONOUNCED EAST OF LAKE ERIE WHERE STRONGER WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
SUBSIDENCE WILL TAKE HOLD.
FINALLY...THE VERY LATE MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT PERIOD SHOULD FEATURE A
BROAD SWATH OF LIGHT WARM ADVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS LIFTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA...AS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES LOW PUSHES ITS
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT NORTHEAST INTO NEW YORK STATE. WILL THEREFORE
ADVERTISE SOME BROADBRUSH MID-RANGE CHANCE POPS DURING THIS
PERIOD...WHEN SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AREAWIDE.
AS FOR TEMPS...DESPITE THE ARRIVAL OF A COLDER CANADIAN AIRMASS LATE
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AND ITS SLOW DEPARTURE ON MONDAY...TEMPS
THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL STILL ONLY AVERAGE CLOSE TO NORMAL. IN
GENERAL...EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TO RANGE IN THE 30S ON SUNDAY AND IN THE
MID 20S TO AROUND 30 ON MONDAY...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY
BETWEEN FALLING BETWEEN THE MID TEENS AND MID 20S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE A RETURN TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE ZONAL
FLOW...WITH A SERIES OF LOW AMPLITUDE WAVES MOVING ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER AND KEEPING A GENERAL CHANCE OF PRECIP IN PLACE
RIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH MILDER PACIFIC AIR DOMINATING OUR
REGION UNDER THIS PATTERN...TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN REBOUND TO ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS...AND WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX AT
NIGHT...WITH RAIN THE MORE DOMINANT PRECIP TYPE DURING THE DAYTIME
PERIODS. AT THIS POINT...THE WARMEST TIME FRAME APPEARS TO BE
WEDNESDAY...WHEN TEMPS SHOULD AT LEAST SURGE WELL INTO THE 40S IN
THE WARM SECTOR OF THE SECOND AND STRONGEST WAVE IN THE SERIES OF
SURFACE LOWS.
LATE IN THE PERIOD...THE GFS/ECMWF BOTH SUGGEST A RETURN OF
LARGER-SCALE TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY AS
ANOTHER LARGE BUT ALSO PROGRESSIVE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN A RETURN TO SEASONABLY
COLDER TEMPS FOR WEEK`S END...ALONG WITH A GENERAL LOW CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS. AGAIN THOUGH...THE LACK OF ANY TRULY ARCTIC AIR WITHIN
THIS TROUGH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN TEMPS ONLY FALLING BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL LEVELS...AND LIKELY REMAINING WARM ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LAKE EFFECT SNOWS.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO INITIALLY START OFF MAINLY AS SNOW...AS
EVAPORATIONAL COOLING FROM DECENT SNOWFALL RATES WINS OUT OVER
DOWNSLOPING. AS THE INTIAL BAND LIFTS NORTH...VSBY SHOULD COME UP
EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH SOME MIXING WITH RAIN POSSIBLE. VSBY/CIGS
WILL VARY WIDELY DURING THIS TIME...ANYWHERES FROM LIFR TO VFR IN
AND OUT OF AREAS OF SNOW.
A FRONT WILL CROSS FROM WEST TO EAST LATE AFTERNOON...SHIFTING
WINDS TO THE SW...AND CAUSING THEM TO INCREASE AS WELL. PRECIPITATION
WILL RAPIDLY END IN MOST AREAS FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH MVFR IMPROVING TO VFR. LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER EAST OF LAKE ERIE WITH AREAS OF
MVFR AND SPOTTY IFR THROUGH MID TO LATE EVENING. EXPECT THE SNOW
TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH A PLUME OF MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY
PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT. EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO A MORE SIGNIFICANT
BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL DEVELOP JUST SOUTH OF KART WITH
LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS. THIS MAY DRIFT UP TOWARDS KART LATE TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY MORNING.
IT WILL BECOME QUITE WINDY TODAY...ESPECIALLY DOWNWIND OF LAKES ERIE
AND ONTARIO WHERE GUSTS IN THE 30-40 KNOT RANGE WILL BE COMMON THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...AREAS OF IFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY.
MONDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH LAKE EFFECT EAST OF THE LAKES ENDING
EARLY...THEN A GENERAL LIGHT SNOW LATE.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SLIGHT CHANCE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SWING BY JUST NORTH OF LAKES ERIE AND
ONTARIO TODAY WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW
AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL
ARRIVE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS 40-45 KNOT FLOW JUST OFF
THE DECK BEGINS TO MIX DOWN AS LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION STEEPENS
LAPSE RATES AND DESTABILIZES THE BOUNDARY LAYER...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE RELATIVELY WARMER LAKES. THIS WILL PRODUCE A LOW END GALE ON
BOTH LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO...WITH WINDS PEAKING THIS EVENING.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW GALES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT MODERATE
TO STRONG WESTERLIES WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE LOWER LAKES MONDAY WITH DIMINISHING WINDS.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM
EST SUNDAY FOR NYZ007-008.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
LEZ020-040-041.
GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
SUNDAY FOR LOZ042>045-062>065.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...APFFEL/JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK
MARINE...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
434 PM EST SAT JAN 28 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHERN QUEBEC TONIGHT WILL BRING SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES TO THE REGION. SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL IMPACT THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT UNTIL LATE TOMORROW
MORNING. ANOTHER CLIPPER APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TOMORROW WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES
SUNDAY NIGHT....AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN FOR PORTIONS
OF THE REGION ON MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 400 PM EST...THE WATER VAPOR LOOP THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUES
TO SHOW A SHORT-WAVE IN THE W/SW FLOW APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION AND LAKE ERIE. A FASTING MOVING SFC LOW OR A CLIPPER
ROTATING AROUND A CLOSED H500 CIRCULATION OVER HUDSONS BAY IS
MOVING ACROSS SE ONTARIO INTO SRN QUEBEC. THE COLD FRONT TO THE
CLIPPER HAS MOVED ACROSS OH AND MI AND IS MOVING INTO WRN NY AND
WRN PA. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN AND LOWER AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. THERE IS A BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE TUG HILL
PLATEAU REGION...THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE WRN DACKS OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. THE BEST LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...AND MAINLY NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY. MOISTURE
WILL BE TAPPED FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES WITH THE BEST MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE NORTHWEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION ALONG THE NOSE OF A
50-60 KT H850 LLJ. THE LATEST HRRR 3KM COLUMNAR MAX REF CONTINUES
TO SHOW A BROKEN BAND OF CELLS WITH SOME 30-40 DBZ ECHOES MOVE
ACROSS THE FCST AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT BTWN 00Z-02Z. THERE COULD
BE SOME ISOLD SNOW SQUALLS THAT PUT OUT A BRIEF BURST OF SNOW.
WE KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...AND SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST.
THE WINDS INCREASE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FROM THE W/NW AT 15 TO
25 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS IN THE 30-40 MPH RANGE...AND THE LAKE EFFECT
POTENTIAL INCREASES FOR THE WRN DACKS. THE NAM AND CAN REGIONAL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A QUARTER TO FOUR TENTHS OF AN INCH OF QPF
WITH A FAVORABLE 260 DEGREE LAKE TRAJECTORY IN THIS AREA. THE SFC-H850
WINDS ALIGN WELL FROM THE WEST WITH LITTLE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. THE
INVERSION IS WELL ABOVE 10KFT AGL BASED ON NAM SOUNDING PROFILES
OVER NRN HERKIMER COUNTY...AND THEN SLOWLY LOWER TO ABOUT 7-8 KFT
AGL AROUND 12Z- 15Z. THE INSTABILITY CLASS OFF THE BUFKIT PROFILES
CONTINUES TO BE CONDITIONAL WITH MARGINAL DELTA T/S. WE PUT OUT A
LAKE EFFECT ADVISORY FOR NRN HERKIMER CTY FROM 00Z/SUN TO 15/SUN
FOR NRN HERKIMER CTY. THE LOCATIONS IMPACTED WILL GENERALLY BE
FROM THE RT 28/OLD FORGE CORRIDOR NORTHWARD WITH 3 TO 7 INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME BLOWING SNOW TONIGHT.
FURTHER EAST INTO HAMILTON COUNTY EXPECT 2 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOWFALL
WITH THE BAND EXTENSION IN QUESTION. ELSEWHERE FROM THE SCT SNOW
SHOWERS AND ISOLD SQUALLS...A COATING TO HALF AN INCH WILL BE
POSSIBLE. COLD ADVECTION OCCURS OVERNIGHT WITH H850 TEMPS FALLING
BACK TO -8C TO -12C. EXPECT LOWS TO BE A LITTLE COLDER TONIGHT
THAN LAST NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID AND U20S IN THE VALLEYS...AND
UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S OVER THE MTNS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE LAKE EFFECT BEGINS TO DIMINISH WITH THE LOWERING
INVERSION...AND THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKING TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
AHEAD OF THE NEXT DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY RIDGE IN FROM THE SOUTH.
THE SHORT-WAVE IS A BIT STRONGER THAN THE ONE TONIGHT. THE STRONG
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION COUPLED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES MAY
FOCUS A ROBUST BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS APPROACHING FROM W-CNTRL NY
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. WE INCREASED THE POPS PREDOMINANTLY WEST OF
THE HUDSON VALLEY IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WITH SLIGHT CHC TO
CHC VALUES...EXCEPT LIKELY AND CATEGORICAL VALUES OVER THE WRN
MOHAWK VALLEY...AND SRN DACKS. WE WENT CLOSE TO GFSMOS MAX TEMPS
WITH HIGHS IN THE U30S TO L40S IN THE VALLEYS /A FEW M40S IN THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY/...AND U20S TO M30S OVER THE MTNS.
TOMORROW NIGHT...THE POTENT VORT MAX AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
TIED TO THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE/CLIPPER MOVING ACROSS SE QUEBEC
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BTWN 00Z-06Z. THE STRONG CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE BOUNDARY MAY PRODUCE MORE WIDESPREAD ONE INCH AMOUNTS
WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE WRN DACKS COULD GET ANOTHER 1 TO 4
INCHES...AS LAKE EFFECT STARTS AGAIN. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE TEENS OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS...AND L20S IN THE VALLEYS...AS
STRONG COLD ADVECTION SWEEPS OVER THE REGION.
MONDAY...ANOTHER BRIEF LAKE CONNECTION IS EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING.
THIS TIME A 290 DEGREE LOW-LEVEL TRAJECTORY WOULD BE FAVORED WITH
THE SW DACKS...W-CNTRL MOHAWK VALLEY...AND NRN CATSKILLS IMPACTED.
WE COULD SEE A BAND SNEAK DOWN THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY EARLY IN
THE DAY...AND WE KEPT SOME SLIGHT-LOW CHC POPS IN FOR THE CAPITAL
REGION...TACONICS...AND BERKSHIRES. RIGHT NOW...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WEST OF ALBANY WOULD BE IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE. THE NAM
CONTINUES TO SHOW THE LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL WEAKENING DURING THE
DAY WITH THE FLOW BEGINNING TO BACK AGAIN...AND THE INVERSION
LOWERING...AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN AGAIN. H850 TEMPS
TUMBLE CLOSER TO SEASONABLE LEVELS AT -13C TO -16C OVER THE REGION
WITH HIGHS IN THE U20S TO M30S IN THE VALLEYS AND LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND LOWER TO M20S OVER THE MTNS.
MONDAY NIGHT...A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT
INCREASES ON THE 295K SFC. OVERRUNNING LIGHT SNOWFALL WILL
OVERSPREAD THE REGION. THE BETTER QG LIFT IS FROM THE HUDSON
VALLEY WESTWARD. WE KEPT HIGH CHC POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS
TIME FRAME. THE WARM FRONT SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD OF THE I-90
CORRIDOR BY TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...A WARM FRONT WILL BE MOVING
NORTH THROUGH THE REGION DURING TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL CONTINUE
TO BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW FOR AREAS MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF I-90. BY
AFTERNOON...MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE DONE ACROSS THE
REGION....WITH THE EXCEPTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS/LAKE GEORGE AREA.
BEHIND THIS WARM FRONT...A WARMER SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL TAKE OVER.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TUESDAY NIGHT MIN TEMPS NOT TO BE AS COOL AS
RECENT NIGHTS...WITH MUCH OF THE CAPITAL REGION REMAINING ABOVE
FREEZING EVEN DURING THE OVERNIGHT. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE
NORMAL RIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH 40S ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BY WED
AFTN. SOME RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESP FOR WEDNESDAY...AS A
STORM SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE STORM/S COLD FRONT
PROVIDES SOME LIFT FOR SHOWERS ACROSS OUR AREA.
THE MODELS DISAGREE ON WHAT OCCURS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND.
THE 12 UTC ECMWF ATTEMPTS TO DEVELOP A WAVE ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD...WHICH COULD BRING
SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIP /RAIN OR SNOW/ TO SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF
THE AREA FOR WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...THE GFS IS MUCH
MORE PROGRESSIVE AND KEEPS IT FAIRLY DRY WITH JUST SOME CYCLONIC
FLOW RAIN/SNOW SHOWER FOR NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA. THE GFS
HAS BEEN PERSISTENT IN GOING AGAINST THE IDEA OF A BIG STORM DURING
THIS PERIOD...AND THE 12 UTC GEFS ONLY SUPPORTS LIGHT PRECIP FROM
WRAP AROUND OF THE CANADIAN LOW PRESSURE DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS
WELL. EVEN THE ECMWF IS STARTING TO BACK OFF ON THE IDEA OF A
STRONGER SECONDARY WAVE DURING THIS PERIOD...AS IT ONLY HAS A WEAK
LOW ALONG THE FRONT...WITH THE STORM WAITING UNTIL ITS MUCH FURTHER
OFFSHORE BEFORE RAPID DEEPENING. FOR NOW...WITH GO WITH LOW POPS
FOR WED NIGHT/THURS AND CONTINUE TO SHOW TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL.
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOMEWHAT ABOVE NORMAL FOR FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY ACROSS THE AREA. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHC POPS AS
SOME WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MAY ALLOW FOR A RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWER...ESP FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BEFORE A STRONG AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES TOWARDS THE AREA FOR LATER IN THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES FOR MUCH OF THE TAF
PERIOD ENDING AT 18Z SUNDAY. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE SNOW SQUALLS/SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF KGFL/KALB FROM THIS EVENING UNTIL SEVERAL
HOURS AFTER MIDNIGHT AHEAD OF AND IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WHICH
MAY BRIEFLY REDUCE VSBYS AND CIGS TO MVFR/IFR. SINCE THE PROBABILITY
OF THESE OCCURRING IS LOW WILL HANDLE WITH A VCSH IN THE TAFS.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN BECOME
SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS EVENING
AND THEN SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT 8-14 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 24 KTS AT KALB
LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
SUN/SUN NIGHT...VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHSN.
MON-TUE...VFR. NO SIG WX.
TUE NIGHT-WED...VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHRA/-SHSN.
THU...VFR...SLIGHT CHC -SHRA/-SHSN.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
RIVER FLOWS CONTINUE TO RECEDE FROM THE RAIN AND MIXED
PRECIPITATION YESTERDAY. THE FLOOD WARNING WAS CANCELED FOR
MCKEEVER ON THE MOOSE RIVER...AS THE ICE JAM HAS BROKEN...AND WATER
IS FREELY FLOWING AGAIN.
A COUPLE OF CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS AND THEIR ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONTS WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES WILL BE COMMON WITH LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS UP TO A FEW
INCHES IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. SOME MODERATE SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. A
WARM FRONT WILL ALSO BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING.
OVERALL...RIVER FLOWS WILL CONTINUE TO RECEDE INTO THE MID WEEK.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
SUNDAY FOR NYZ032.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...11
HYDROLOGY...WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
305 PM CST SAT JAN 28 2012
.DISCUSSION...
337 AM CST
MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS DENOTE A CLOSED
CIRCULATION ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA...WITH A LARGE TROUGH EXTENDING
TO THE SOUTH AND PUSHING THROUGH OUR REGION. THIS TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVANCE EAST THROUGH THE DAY...AND PUSH A SURFACE
FRONT/TROUGH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. AS OF 3 AM...THE MAIN FRONT HAD
PUSHED THROUGH DKB AND WAS ON ITS WAY TOWARDS LAKE MICHIGAN. BY
SUNRISE MOST IF NOT ALL LOCATIONS ACROSS ILLINOIS AND NORTHWESTERN
INDIANA SHOULD BE FREE FROM SNOWFALL. WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY
AND THEN NORTHWESTERLY WITH GUSTS INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS HIGHLIGHT EFFICIENT AND DEEP MIXING BEYOND H9
THIS THIS AFTERNOON. UPSTREAM OBS HIGHLIGHT MID 20 KT GUSTS ACROSS
THE MN/WI BORDER...AND THAT WILL WORK SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA INTO
THE MORNING HOURS. STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE MID
LEVELS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL LEAD TO MEAN GUSTS
AROUND 30-35 KT THROUGH THE MIXED LAYER WORKING TO THE
SURFACE...ESPECIALLY ONCE CLOUDS CLEAR OUT...THOUGH NO ADVISORY
LEVEL GUSTS ANTICIPATED.
THE NEXT RIPPLE IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL WORK SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT...BRINGING ANOTHER CLIPPER ACROSS
THE IL/WI BORDER. AS WITH MANY CLIPPER SYSTEMS...THIS ONE WILL BE
RATHER MOISTURE DEVOID. ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS SHOWCASES THE BEST
UPGLIDE HAPPENING OVERNIGHT...WITH A LOT BEING WASTED ON
SATURATION IN THE 06 TO 12Z TIMEFRAME. GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE RATES
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND WEAK Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE...WILL
KEEP THE MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE MORNING HOURS OF
SUNDAY...BUT STILL KEEPING TOTALS LOW...AND WOULD BE SURPRISED IF
MORE THAN A QUARTER TO HALF OF AN INCH OF SNOW ARE SQUEEZED OUT
ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES.
THE PATTERN FOR THE PREVIOUS DAY AND NEXT FEW DAYS IS ACTING LIKE A
BROKEN RECORD. SNOW A LITTLE...CLEAR OUT...SLOWLY COOL...INCREASE
CLOUDS AND START OVER. SUNDAY WILL BE SIMILAR WITH ONE MINOR
EXCEPTION. LIGHT CAA WILL CONTINUE ALLOWING SUNDAY TEMPERATURES TO
SWING A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY. THE NEXT RIPPLE IN THE FLOW
WILL AGAIN COME RACING SOUTH THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA...BUT
THIS TIME IS PROGGED TO REMAIN NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AS THE WAVE APPROACHES.
THE START OF THE WEEK WILL BE SIMILAR TO FLIPPING AN OLD LP RECORD
FROM SIDE A TO SIDE B. THE PERSISTENT AND MINUSCULE WAVES THAT
HAVE BEEN DIVING THROUGH HERE...WITH ABOUT A 24 HOUR
PERIODICITY...WILL COME TO AN END AS FLOW ALOFT ATTEMPTS TO
BECOME ZONAL AS THE LARGE WEST COAST RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL SQUEEZE OUT AND SOUTH
OF THE REGION AND TAKE RESIDENCE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS.
THIS WILL ALLOW LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW TO BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY...BRINGING IN UNSEASONABLE WARMTH...AGAIN. HIGHS
MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY ARE LOOKING TO RANGE FROM 10 TO
POTENTIALLY WELL OVER 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. THE SECOND LAW OF THERMODYNAMICS STATES THAT FOR EVERY
ACTION...THERE IS AN EQUAL AND OPPOSITE REACTION. THANKFULLY THE
ATMOSPHERIC REACTION TO THE WARMTH WILL NOT HAPPEN QUICKLY.
DESPITE CONTINUED MODEL VARIANCES THESE LAST FEW NIGHTS...LONG
RANGE MODELS ARE STILL IN AGREEMENT WITH A WAVE DEEPENING ACROSS
THE PLAINS AND LIFTING ACROSS IL/WI BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE
LATEST EC HAS COME INTO AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS...AND EVEN SREF TO
SOME RESPECTS...WITH MOVING A SURFACE FEATURE ACROSS THE AREA. I
SAY FEATURE AT THIS POINT...BEING 96 HOURS OUT...AS THE MODELS
STILL DIFFER WITH RESPECT TO EITHER HAVING A LOW LIFT ACROSS THE
BORDER...OR ELSE KEEP THE LOW TO THE NORTHWEST AND LIFT A WARM
FRONT ACROSS...BEFORE BOTH SHIFT A COLD FRONT THROUGH.
REGARDLESS...DID UP POP CHANCES MID WEEK IN THE TUES AFTERNOON/EVE
WINDOW. WITH STRONG WAA UNDERWAY...PROFILES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT RAIN UNTIL THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF WEDNESDAY...WHEN THE
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES MAY SEE A RAIN AND SNOW MIX.
SHEA
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 21Z...
* GUSTY WEST WINDS AROUND 30 KTS THIS AFTERNOON.
* POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY
WITH ATTENDANT POSSIBILITY OF BRIEF IFR VIS/MVFR CIGS.
* MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER SUNDAY MORNING.
RATZER
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON IN DRY/COLDER
AIR IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT WHICH MOVED THROUGH OVERNIGHT. MAIN
AVIATION WEATHER ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM ARE THE GUSTY WEST WINDS
PRODUCED BY COMBINATION OF RELATIVELY TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND FAIRLY DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING IN LOW-LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION REGIME BEHIND THE FRONT. OBSERVATIONS INDICATE WINDS
GUSTING AROUND 30 KTS AS SUGGESTED BY FORECAST SOUNDINGS...AND
EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE FOR THE BALANCE OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH...PARTICULARLY THE HIGHER GUSTS...THIS
EVENING WITH SUNSET...THOUGH NEXT QUICK MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IS ALREADY DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA AT MIDDAY AND
PRESSURE FALLS WITH THIS APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL HELP TO KEEP
WINDS FROM FALLING OFF TOO MUCH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BACK FROM
CURRENT WESTERLY DIRECTION TO SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT
AHEAD OF THE LOW...BUT GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH TO 15-20 KTS.
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE DAKOTAS IS ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER QUICK
MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WHICH IS PROGGED TO REACH THE FORECAST AREA
BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME/HEIGHT
DEPICTIONS INDICATE INCREASING ASCENT IN LOW LEVELS THIS EVENING
AS WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO MID-LEVEL WAVE...THOUGH
DRY MODIFIED-ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL TAKE CONSIDERABLE LIFTING TO
SATURATE. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT HOWEVER IN DEVELOPING
MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK AND EVENTUALLY SATURATING LOW LEVELS ENOUGH
FROM THE TOP DOWN FOR A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW A FEW HOURS AFTER
MIDNIGHT...WITH AREAS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN IL/SOUTHERN WI FAVORED
FOR SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. VARIOUS MODELS ALL DEVELOP SOME
MEASURABLE PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
TOWARD 08-10Z...LINGERING THROUGH 12-14Z OR SO WITH THAT PERIOD
HAVING THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD OF BRIEF IFR VIS/MVFR CIGS IN LIGHT
SNOW. MVFR CIGS 2000-2500 FT MAY LINGER FOR A TIME DURING THE
MORNING.
RATZER
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 21Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN GUSTY WEST WINDS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN GUST TRENDS THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TIMING...LOW CONFIDENCE IN VIS/CIG TRENDS.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIG TRENDS SUNDAY.
RATZER
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR.
MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...IFR CIGS POSSIBLE. CHANCE OF RAIN/DRIZZLE.
WEDNESDAY...MORNING MVFR POSSIBLE.
THURSDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY...VFR.
MTF
&&
.MARINE...
244 PM CST
A RATHER PROGRESSIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
IN THE NEAR TERM...WESTERLY GALES WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE LAKES AND INTO SOUTHERN
QUEBEC TONIGHT. WHILE WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE...THE
GRADIENT WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT TIGHT AS ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
QUICKLY DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE DAKOTAS TO LOWER MICHIGAN BY SUNDAY
MORNING. AFTER A PUSH OF SOMEWHAT COLDER AIR AND A PERIOD OF GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY MORNING...THE GRADIENT WILL FINALLY LOOSEN
AND ALLOW WINDS TO DIMINISH LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES. THE LULL WONT
LAST TOO LONG HOWEVER...AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTH BEHIND
THE WARM FRONT BY LATE MONDAY...BUT WILL SHIFT BACK TO THE NORTHWEST
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW ALONG THE BORDER MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN LAKES AND TRAILS ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN.
RATZER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-
LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 UNTIL 9 PM SATURDAY.
GALE WARNING...NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 6
PM SATURDAY.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
244 PM CST SAT JAN 28 2012
.DISCUSSION...
337 AM CST
MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS DENOTE A CLOSED
CIRCULATION ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA...WITH A LARGE TROUGH EXTENDING
TO THE SOUTH AND PUSHING THROUGH OUR REGION. THIS TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVANCE EAST THROUGH THE DAY...AND PUSH A SURFACE
FRONT/TROUGH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. AS OF 3 AM...THE MAIN FRONT HAD
PUSHED THROUGH DKB AND WAS ON ITS WAY TOWARDS LAKE MICHIGAN. BY
SUNRISE MOST IF NOT ALL LOCATIONS ACROSS ILLINOIS AND NORTHWESTERN
INDIANA SHOULD BE FREE FROM SNOWFALL. WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY
AND THEN NORTHWESTERLY WITH GUSTS INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS HIGHLIGHT EFFICIENT AND DEEP MIXING BEYOND H9
THIS THIS AFTERNOON. UPSTREAM OBS HIGHLIGHT MID 20 KT GUSTS ACROSS
THE MN/WI BORDER...AND THAT WILL WORK SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA INTO
THE MORNING HOURS. STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE MID
LEVELS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL LEAD TO MEAN GUSTS
AROUND 30-35 KT THROUGH THE MIXED LAYER WORKING TO THE
SURFACE...ESPECIALLY ONCE CLOUDS CLEAR OUT...THOUGH NO ADVISORY
LEVEL GUSTS ANTICIPATED.
THE NEXT RIPPLE IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL WORK SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT...BRINGING ANOTHER CLIPPER ACROSS
THE IL/WI BORDER. AS WITH MANY CLIPPER SYSTEMS...THIS ONE WILL BE
RATHER MOISTURE DEVOID. ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS SHOWCASES THE BEST
UPGLIDE HAPPENING OVERNIGHT...WITH A LOT BEING WASTED ON
SATURATION IN THE 06 TO 12Z TIMEFRAME. GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE RATES
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND WEAK Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE...WILL
KEEP THE MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE MORNING HOURS OF
SUNDAY...BUT STILL KEEPING TOTALS LOW...AND WOULD BE SURPRISED IF
MORE THAN A QUARTER TO HALF OF AN INCH OF SNOW ARE SQUEEZED OUT
ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES.
THE PATTERN FOR THE PREVIOUS DAY AND NEXT FEW DAYS IS ACTING LIKE A
BROKEN RECORD. SNOW A LITTLE...CLEAR OUT...SLOWLY COOL...INCREASE
CLOUDS AND START OVER. SUNDAY WILL BE SIMILAR WITH ONE MINOR
EXCEPTION. LIGHT CAA WILL CONTINUE ALLOWING SUNDAY TEMPERATURES TO
SWING A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY. THE NEXT RIPPLE IN THE FLOW
WILL AGAIN COME RACING SOUTH THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA...BUT
THIS TIME IS PROGGED TO REMAIN NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AS THE WAVE APPROACHES.
THE START OF THE WEEK WILL BE SIMILAR TO FLIPPING AN OLD LP RECORD
FROM SIDE A TO SIDE B. THE PERSISTENT AND MINUSCULE WAVES THAT
HAVE BEEN DIVING THROUGH HERE...WITH ABOUT A 24 HOUR
PERIODICITY...WILL COME TO AN END AS FLOW ALOFT ATTEMPTS TO
BECOME ZONAL AS THE LARGE WEST COAST RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL SQUEEZE OUT AND SOUTH
OF THE REGION AND TAKE RESIDENCE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS.
THIS WILL ALLOW LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW TO BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY...BRINGING IN UNSEASONABLE WARMTH...AGAIN. HIGHS
MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY ARE LOOKING TO RANGE FROM 10 TO
POTENTIALLY WELL OVER 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. THE SECOND LAW OF THERMODYNAMICS STATES THAT FOR EVERY
ACTION...THERE IS AN EQUAL AND OPPOSITE REACTION. THANKFULLY THE
ATMOSPHERIC REACTION TO THE WARMTH WILL NOT HAPPEN QUICKLY.
DESPITE CONTINUED MODEL VARIANCES THESE LAST FEW NIGHTS...LONG
RANGE MODELS ARE STILL IN AGREEMENT WITH A WAVE DEEPENING ACROSS
THE PLAINS AND LIFTING ACROSS IL/WI BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE
LATEST EC HAS COME INTO AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS...AND EVEN SREF TO
SOME RESPECTS...WITH MOVING A SURFACE FEATURE ACROSS THE AREA. I
SAY FEATURE AT THIS POINT...BEING 96 HOURS OUT...AS THE MODELS
STILL DIFFER WITH RESPECT TO EITHER HAVING A LOW LIFT ACROSS THE
BORDER...OR ELSE KEEP THE LOW TO THE NORTHWEST AND LIFT A WARM
FRONT ACROSS...BEFORE BOTH SHIFT A COLD FRONT THROUGH.
REGARDLESS...DID UP POP CHANCES MID WEEK IN THE TUES AFTERNOON/EVE
WINDOW. WITH STRONG WAA UNDERWAY...PROFILES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT RAIN UNTIL THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF WEDNESDAY...WHEN THE
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES MAY SEE A RAIN AND SNOW MIX.
SHEA
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* GUSTY WEST WINDS AROUND 30 KTS THIS AFTERNOON.
* POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY
WITH ATTENDANT POSSIBILITY OF BRIEF IFR VIS/MVFR CIGS.
* MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER SUNDAY MORNING.
RATZER
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON IN DRY/COLDER
AIR IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT WHICH MOVED THROUGH OVERNIGHT. MAIN
AVIATION WEATHER ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM ARE THE GUSTY WEST WINDS
PRODUCED BY COMBINATION OF RELATIVELY TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND FAIRLY DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING IN LOW-LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION REGIME BEHIND THE FRONT. OBSERVATIONS INDICATE WINDS
GUSTING AROUND 30 KTS AS SUGGESTED BY FORECAST SOUNDINGS...AND
EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE FOR THE BALANCE OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH...PARTICULARLY THE HIGHER GUSTS...THIS
EVENING WITH SUNSET...THOUGH NEXT QUICK MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IS ALREADY DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA AT MIDDAY AND
PRESSURE FALLS WITH THIS APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL HELP TO KEEP
WINDS FROM FALLING OFF TOO MUCH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BACK FROM
CURRENT WESTERLY DIRECTION TO SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT
AHEAD OF THE LOW...BUT GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH TO 15-20 KTS.
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE DAKOTAS IS ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER QUICK
MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WHICH IS PROGGED TO REACH THE FORECAST AREA
BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME/HEIGHT
DEPICTIONS INDICATE INCREASING ASCENT IN LOW LEVELS THIS EVENING
AS WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO MID-LEVEL WAVE...THOUGH
DRY MODIFIED-ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL TAKE CONSIDERABLE LIFTING TO
SATURATE. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT HOWEVER IN DEVELOPING
MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK AND EVENTUALLY SATURATING LOW LEVELS ENOUGH
FROM THE TOP DOWN FOR A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW A FEW HOURS AFTER
MIDNIGHT...WITH AREAS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN IL/SOUTHERN WI FAVORED
FOR SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. VARIOUS MODELS ALL DEVELOP SOME
MEASURABLE PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
TOWARD 08-10Z...LINGERING THROUGH 12-14Z OR SO WITH THAT PERIOD
HAVING THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD OF BRIEF IFR VIS/MVFR CIGS IN LIGHT
SNOW. MVFR CIGS 2000-2500 FT MAY LINGER FOR A TIME DURING THE
MORNING.
RATZER
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN GUSTY WEST WINDS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN GUST TRENDS THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TIMING...LOW CONFIDENCE IN VIS/CIG TRENDS.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIG TRENDS SUNDAY.
RATZER
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR.
MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...IFR CIGS POSSIBLE. CHANCE OF RAIN/DRIZZLE.
WEDNESDAY...MORNING MVFR POSSIBLE.
THURSDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY...VFR.
MTF
&&
.MARINE...
244 PM CST
A RATHER PROGRESSIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
IN THE NEAR TERM...WESTERLY GALES WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE LAKES AND INTO SOUTHERN
QUEBEC TONIGHT. WHILE WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE...THE
GRADIENT WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT TIGHT AS ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
QUICKLY DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE DAKOTAS TO LOWER MICHIGAN BY SUNDAY
MORNING. AFTER A PUSH OF SOMEWHAT COLDER AIR AND A PERIOD OF GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY MORNING...THE GRADIENT WILL FINALLY LOOSEN
AND ALLOW WINDS TO DIMINISH LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES. THE LULL WONT
LAST TOO LONG HOWEVER...AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTH BEHIND
THE WARM FRONT BY LATE MONDAY...BUT WILL SHIFT BACK TO THE NORTHWEST
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW ALONG THE BORDER MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN LAKES AND TRAILS ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN.
RATZER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-
LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 UNTIL 9 PM SATURDAY.
GALE WARNING...NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 6
PM SATURDAY.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1204 PM CST SAT JAN 28 2012
.DISCUSSION...
337 AM CST
MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS DENOTE A CLOSED
CIRCULATION ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA...WITH A LARGE TROUGH EXTENDING
TO THE SOUTH AND PUSHING THROUGH OUR REGION. THIS TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVANCE EAST THROUGH THE DAY...AND PUSH A SURFACE
FRONT/TROUGH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. AS OF 3 AM...THE MAIN FRONT HAD
PUSHED THROUGH DKB AND WAS ON ITS WAY TOWARDS LAKE MICHIGAN. BY
SUNRISE MOST IF NOT ALL LOCATIONS ACROSS ILLINOIS AND NORTHWESTERN
INDIANA SHOULD BE FREE FROM SNOWFALL. WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY
AND THEN NORTHWESTERLY WITH GUSTS INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS HIGHLIGHT EFFICIENT AND DEEP MIXING BEYOND H9
THIS THIS AFTERNOON. UPSTREAM OBS HIGHLIGHT MID 20 KT GUSTS ACROSS
THE MN/WI BORDER...AND THAT WILL WORK SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA INTO
THE MORNING HOURS. STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE MID
LEVELS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL LEAD TO MEAN GUSTS
AROUND 30-35 KT THROUGH THE MIXED LAYER WORKING TO THE
SURFACE...ESPECIALLY ONCE CLOUDS CLEAR OUT...THOUGH NO ADVISORY
LEVEL GUSTS ANTICIPATED.
THE NEXT RIPPLE IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL WORK SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT...BRINGING ANOTHER CLIPPER ACROSS
THE IL/WI BORDER. AS WITH MANY CLIPPER SYSTEMS...THIS ONE WILL BE
RATHER MOISTURE DEVOID. ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS SHOWCASES THE BEST
UPGLIDE HAPPENING OVERNIGHT...WITH A LOT BEING WASTED ON
SATURATION IN THE 06 TO 12Z TIMEFRAME. GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE RATES
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND WEAK Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE...WILL
KEEP THE MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE MORNING HOURS OF
SUNDAY...BUT STILL KEEPING TOTALS LOW...AND WOULD BE SURPRISED IF
MORE THAN A QUARTER TO HALF OF AN INCH OF SNOW ARE SQUEEZED OUT
ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES.
THE PATTERN FOR THE PREVIOUS DAY AND NEXT FEW DAYS IS ACTING LIKE A
BROKEN RECORD. SNOW A LITTLE...CLEAR OUT...SLOWLY COOL...INCREASE
CLOUDS AND START OVER. SUNDAY WILL BE SIMILAR WITH ONE MINOR
EXCEPTION. LIGHT CAA WILL CONTINUE ALLOWING SUNDAY TEMPERATURES TO
SWING A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY. THE NEXT RIPPLE IN THE FLOW
WILL AGAIN COME RACING SOUTH THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA...BUT
THIS TIME IS PROGGED TO REMAIN NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AS THE WAVE APPROACHES.
THE START OF THE WEEK WILL BE SIMILAR TO FLIPPING AN OLD LP RECORD
FROM SIDE A TO SIDE B. THE PERSISTENT AND MINUSCULE WAVES THAT
HAVE BEEN DIVING THROUGH HERE...WITH ABOUT A 24 HOUR
PERIODICITY...WILL COME TO AN END AS FLOW ALOFT ATTEMPTS TO
BECOME ZONAL AS THE LARGE WEST COAST RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL SQUEEZE OUT AND SOUTH
OF THE REGION AND TAKE RESIDENCE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS.
THIS WILL ALLOW LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW TO BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY...BRINGING IN UNSEASONABLE WARMTH...AGAIN. HIGHS
MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY ARE LOOKING TO RANGE FROM 10 TO
POTENTIALLY WELL OVER 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. THE SECOND LAW OF THERMODYNAMICS STATES THAT FOR EVERY
ACTION...THERE IS AN EQUAL AND OPPOSITE REACTION. THANKFULLY THE
ATMOSPHERIC REACTION TO THE WARMTH WILL NOT HAPPEN QUICKLY.
DESPITE CONTINUED MODEL VARIANCES THESE LAST FEW NIGHTS...LONG
RANGE MODELS ARE STILL IN AGREEMENT WITH A WAVE DEEPENING ACROSS
THE PLAINS AND LIFTING ACROSS IL/WI BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE
LATEST EC HAS COME INTO AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS...AND EVEN SREF TO
SOME RESPECTS...WITH MOVING A SURFACE FEATURE ACROSS THE AREA. I
SAY FEATURE AT THIS POINT...BEING 96 HOURS OUT...AS THE MODELS
STILL DIFFER WITH RESPECT TO EITHER HAVING A LOW LIFT ACROSS THE
BORDER...OR ELSE KEEP THE LOW TO THE NORTHWEST AND LIFT A WARM
FRONT ACROSS...BEFORE BOTH SHIFT A COLD FRONT THROUGH.
REGARDLESS...DID UP POP CHANCES MID WEEK IN THE TUES AFTERNOON/EVE
WINDOW. WITH STRONG WAA UNDERWAY...PROFILES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT RAIN UNTIL THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF WEDNESDAY...WHEN THE
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES MAY SEE A RAIN AND SNOW MIX.
SHEA
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* GUSTY WEST WINDS AROUND 30 KTS THIS AFTERNOON.
* POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY
WITH ATTENDANT POSSIBILITY OF BRIEF IFR VIS/MVFR CIGS.
* MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER SUNDAY MORNING.
RATZER
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON IN DRY/COLDER
AIR IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT WHICH MOVED THROUGH OVERNIGHT. MAIN
AVIATION WEATHER ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM ARE THE GUSTY WEST WINDS
PRODUCED BY COMBINATION OF RELATIVELY TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND FAIRLY DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING IN LOW-LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION REGIME BEHIND THE FRONT. OBSERVATIONS INDICATE WINDS
GUSTING AROUND 30 KTS AS SUGGESTED BY FORECAST SOUNDINGS...AND
EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE FOR THE BALANCE OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH...PARTICULARLY THE HIGHER GUSTS...THIS
EVENING WITH SUNSET...THOUGH NEXT QUICK MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IS ALREADY DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA AT MIDDAY AND
PRESSURE FALLS WITH THIS APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL HELP TO KEEP
WINDS FROM FALLING OFF TOO MUCH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BACK FROM
CURRENT WESTERLY DIRECTION TO SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT
AHEAD OF THE LOW...BUT GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH TO 15-20 KTS.
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE DAKOTAS IS ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER QUICK
MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WHICH IS PROGGED TO REACH THE FORECAST AREA
BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME/HEIGHT
DEPICTIONS INDICATE INCREASING ASCENT IN LOW LEVELS THIS EVENING
AS WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO MID-LEVEL WAVE...THOUGH
DRY MODIFIED-ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL TAKE CONSIDERABLE LIFTING TO
SATURATE. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT HOWEVER IN DEVELOPING
MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK AND EVENTUALLY SATURATING LOW LEVELS ENOUGH
FROM THE TOP DOWN FOR A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW A FEW HOURS AFTER
MIDNIGHT...WITH AREAS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN IL/SOUTHERN WI FAVORED
FOR SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. VARIOUS MODELS ALL DEVELOP SOME
MEASURABLE PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
TOWARD 08-10Z...LINGERING THROUGH 12-14Z OR SO WITH THAT PERIOD
HAVING THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD OF BRIEF IFR VIS/MVFR CIGS IN LIGHT
SNOW. MVFR CIGS 2000-2500 FT MAY LINGER FOR A TIME DURING THE
MORNING.
RATZER
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN GUSTY WEST WINDS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN GUST TRENDS THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TIMING...LOW CONFIDENCE IN VIS/CIG TRENDS.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIG TRENDS SUNDAY.
RATZER
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR.
MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...IFR CIGS POSSIBLE. CHANCE OF RAIN/DRIZZLE.
WEDNESDAY...MORNING MVFR POSSIBLE.
THURSDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY...VFR.
MTF
&&
.MARINE...
226 AM CST
AN ACTIVE PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE LAKES BASICALLY
THROUGH TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY EVEN FURTHER. AS A COLD FRONT CLEARS
THE LAKE NEAR DAYBREAK...COLDER AIR WILL ADVECT OVER THE REGION
WITHIN A STRONG NORTHWEST PUSH OF WINDS. TOGETHER THIS WILL HELP TO
STEEPEN LAPSE RATES AND PROMOTE GALE FORCE WESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN LAKE...INCLUDING NEARSHORE AREAS OF IL AND IN...AND
SPREADING TO THE NORTH OPEN WATERS BY LATE MORNING. WHILE GALE FORCE
GUSTS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING...WINDS WILL GENERALLY STAY
AT LEAST 20 KT THROUGH SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING AS ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE AREA MOVES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES. WINDS WILL TURN
SOUTHERLY FROM MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH A WARM FRONT MOVING
NORTH ACROSS THE LAKE. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
LAKE BY LATE TUESDAY. WITH THIS FEATURE GALE FORCE GUSTS MAY AGAIN
BE POSSIBLE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD. AT THIS TIME...A SLIGHTLY QUIETER
PATTERN UNDER WEAK RIDGING IS FAVORED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST
WINDS.
MTF
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-
LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 UNTIL 9 PM SATURDAY.
GALE WARNING...NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 6
PM SATURDAY.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
339 PM EST SAT JAN 28 2012
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF FRONTS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK BRINGING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ALONG WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS
AT TIMES. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE...
ESPECIALLY FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS SURGED EAST OF THE REGION THIS MORNING TAKING
ALL OF THE SNOW WITH IT. SKIES HAVE RAPIDLY CLEARED IN WAKE OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS MUCH DRIER AIR AND DEEPER SUBSIDENCE
OVERSPREAD CENTRAL INDIANA. TEMPS WERE RUNNING BETWEEN 30 AND 35
DEGREES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS OF 14Z.
MAIN FEATURE OF THE MORNING UPDATE WAS TO FRESHEN THE FORECAST AND
REMOVE ALL MENTION OF SNOW CHANCES. ALSO UPDATED SKY GRIDS WITH
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BY 16Z.
COMBINATION OF COLD ADVECTION AND STRONG LOW LEVEL JET ROTATING
THROUGH THE REGION WILL SERVE TO KEEP WIND GUSTS AT 30-35MPH INTO
THE MID AFTERNOON. MOST RECENT RUC GUIDANCE INDICATING THAT THE
JET SHOULD SHIFT NORTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES PULLS AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST.
MAY SEE GUSTS DROP OFF A BIT AS A RESULT DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE AFTERNOON...BUT EXPECT WIND GUSTS TO PERSIST IN SOME FASHION
UNTIL SUNSET. TWEAKED HIGH TEMPS DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO BASED ON
CURRENT READINGS AND THE COUNTERACTING IMPACT OF THE COLD
ADVECTION INTO THE AFTERNOON EVEN WITH FULL SUN ANTICIPATED.
ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR SNOW AND WINDS SUNDAY. MODELS ARE CLOSE
ENOUGH THAT A BLEND CAN BE USED FOR MOST FEATURES.
TONIGHT WILL BE DRY AS CLOUDS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. AT
THE MOMENT FEEL THAT THE SNOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL REMAIN JUST
WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH 12Z...SO KEPT FORECAST AREA DRY TONIGHT.
WINDS SHOULD STAY UP WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS PLUS
INCREASING CLOUDS LEADS TO LOW TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE MAV MOS.
FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY ALONG WITH SOME UPPER
SUPPORT. Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE FORECASTS ARE ACTUALLY HIGHER FOR
SUNDAY THAN SATURDAY INDICATING BETTER FORCING. HOWEVER MOISTURE
WILL NOT BE AS PLENTIFUL. GIVEN THE FORCING WILL GO ABOVE MOS POPS
BUT STILL KEEP POPS IN CHANCE CATEGORY. BEST FORCING/MOISTURE
COMBINATION WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA SO WILL GO
HIGHEST POPS THERE. THE SOUTHWEST THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD
BE FAR ENOUGH REMOVED FROM FORCING/MOISTURE TO GO WITH A DRY
FORECAST THERE.
DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW BREEZY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ON
SUNDAY...WITH SOME MIXING ALLOWING GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH ONCE AGAIN.
MOS TEMPERATURES LOOK OK NORTH ON SUNDAY BUT LOOK A BIT WARM SOUTH
GIVEN EXPECTED COLD ADVECTION.
A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FOR MONDAY. WITH
THE LIMITED FORCING AND MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONT DECIDED TO CONTINUE
A DRY FORECAST SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAIN CHALLENGE TO THE EXTENDED WILL BE POPS ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE
PERIOD. THE 00Z ECMWF IS NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z GFS
AND ENSEMBLES AS IT IS DRY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THE
CR INITIALIZATION WAS GIVING US SMALL POPS. WITH THE MODELS BEING
INCONSISTENT OVER THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS AND AFTER COORDINATING WITH
ADJACENT OFFICES...WILL GO AHEAD AND KEEP THEM IN DESPITE DRY 00Z
MODEL CONSENSUS. COULD SEE A MIX THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ALL RAIN FRIDAY
AHEAD OF SEPARATE UPPER TROUGHS. PRIOR TO THURSDAY NIGHT...MODELS IN
A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT ON A FRONT MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
MIDWEEK WHICH WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE FIRST OF TWO UPPER TROUGHS AND TO THE
NORTH OF A SURFACE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS KENTUCKY. THESE TWO TROUGHS
WILL HELP BRING SOME COLDER AIR ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA LATE IN THE
WEEK REPLACING A VERY MILD AIRMASS WITH EARLY AND MID WEEK HIGHS IN
THE 50S.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 28/21Z TAF DISCUSSION/...
TWEAKED CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TAF SITES TONIGHT. HOWEVER...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH DURATION OF TAF
PERIOD. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY FRONTAL PASSAGE AROUND
MID MORNING TOMORROW AND INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS...MAINLY AT KLAF
AND KIND. BRIEF FALLS TO MVFR COULD BE POSSIBLE AT TAF SITES WHEN
FRONT MOVES THROUGH...BUT FOR THE MOST PART IT WILL STAY AT VFR
CATEGORY.
WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG THROUGH TAF PERIOD.
SUSTAINED SPEEDS WILL RANGE FROM 15 TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS
INTO THIS EVENING. GUSTS SHOULD TAPER OFF BY LATE EVENING...AND
SUSTAINED WINDS WILL ALSO DECREASE TO 10 TO 12 KTS. THIS WILL BE
SHORT-LIVED THOUGH AS THEY INCREASE AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING BEHIND
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO
20 KTS ONCE AGAIN WITH GUSTS UP TO 32 KTS. THEY WILL REMAIN
WESTERLY.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...TDUD/CP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1255 PM EST SAT JAN 28 2012
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF FRONTS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK BRINGING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ALONG WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS
AT TIMES. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE...
ESPECIALLY FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS SURGED EAST OF THE REGION THIS MORNING TAKING
ALL OF THE SNOW WITH IT. SKIES HAVE RAPIDLY CLEARED IN WAKE OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS MUCH DRIER AIR AND DEEPER SUBSIDENCE
OVERSPREAD CENTRAL INDIANA. TEMPS WERE RUNNING BETWEEN 30 AND 35
DEGREES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS OF 14Z.
MAIN FEATURE OF THE MORNING UPDATE WAS TO FRESHEN THE FORECAST AND
REMOVE ALL MENTION OF SNOW CHANCES. ALSO UPDATED SKY GRIDS WITH
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BY 16Z.
COMBINATION OF COLD ADVECTION AND STRONG LOW LEVEL JET ROTATING
THROUGH THE REGION WILL SERVE TO KEEP WIND GUSTS AT 30-35MPH INTO
THE MID AFTERNOON. MOST RECENT RUC GUIDANCE INDICATING THAT THE
JET SHOULD SHIFT NORTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES PULLS AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST.
MAY SEE GUSTS DROP OFF A BIT AS A RESULT DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE AFTERNOON...BUT EXPECT WIND GUSTS TO PERSIST IN SOME FASHION
UNTIL SUNSET. TWEAKED HIGH TEMPS DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO BASED ON
CURRENT READINGS AND THE COUNTERACTING IMPACT OF THE COLD
ADVECTION INTO THE AFTERNOON EVEN WITH FULL SUN ANTICIPATED.
ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR SNOW AND WINDS SUNDAY. MODELS ARE CLOSE
ENOUGH THAT A BLEND CAN BE USED FOR MOST FEATURES.
TONIGHT WILL BE DRY AS CLOUDS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. AT
THE MOMENT FEEL THAT THE SNOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL REMAIN JUST
WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH 12Z...SO KEPT FORECAST AREA DRY TONIGHT.
WINDS SHOULD STAY UP WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS PLUS
INCREASING CLOUDS LEADS TO LOW TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE MAV MOS.
FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY ALONG WITH SOME UPPER
SUPPORT. Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE FORECASTS ARE ACTUALLY HIGHER FOR
SUNDAY THAN SATURDAY INDICATING BETTER FORCING. HOWEVER MOISTURE
WILL NOT BE AS PLENTIFUL. GIVEN THE FORCING WILL GO ABOVE MOS POPS
BUT STILL KEEP POPS IN CHANCE CATEGORY. BEST FORCING/MOISTURE
COMBINATION WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA SO WILL GO
HIGHEST POPS THERE. THE SOUTHWEST THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD
BE FAR ENOUGH REMOVED FROM FORCING/MOISTURE TO GO WITH A DRY
FORECAST THERE.
DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW BREEZY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ON
SUNDAY...WITH SOME MIXING ALLOWING GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH ONCE AGAIN.
MOS TEMPERATURES LOOK OK NORTH ON SUNDAY BUT LOOK A BIT WARM SOUTH
GIVEN EXPECTED COLD ADVECTION.
A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FOR MONDAY. WITH
THE LIMITED FORCING AND MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONT DECIDED TO CONTINUE
A DRY FORECAST SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAIN CHALLENGE TO THE EXTENDED WILL BE POPS ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE
PERIOD. THE 00Z ECMWF IS NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z GFS
AND ENSEMBLES AS IT IS DRY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THE
CR INITIALIZATION WAS GIVING US SMALL POPS. WITH THE MODELS BEING
INCONSISTENT OVER THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS AND AFTER COORDINATING WITH
ADJACENT OFFICES...WILL GO AHEAD AND KEEP THEM IN DESPITE DRY 00Z
MODEL CONSENSUS. COULD SEE A MIX THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ALL RAIN FRIDAY
AHEAD OF SEPARATE UPPER TROUGHS. PRIOR TO THURSDAY NIGHT...MODELS IN
A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT ON A FRONT MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
MIDWEEK WHICH WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE FIRST OF TWO UPPER TROUGHS AND TO THE
NORTH OF A SURFACE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS KENTUCKY. THESE TWO TROUGHS
WILL HELP BRING SOME COLDER AIR ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA LATE IN THE
WEEK REPLACING A VERY MILD AIRMASS WITH EARLY AND MID WEEK HIGHS IN
THE 50S.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 28/18Z TAF DISCUSSION/...
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TAF SITES TONIGHT. HOWEVER...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH DURATION OF TAF
PERIOD. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY FRONTAL PASSAGE AROUND
MID MORNING TOMORROW AND INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS...MAINLY AT KLAF
AND KIND. BRIEF FALLS TO MVFR COULD BE POSSIBLE AT TAF SITES WHEN
FRONT MOVES THROUGH...BUT FOR THE MOST PART IT WILL STAY AT VFR
CATEGORY.
WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG THROUGH TAF PERIOD.
SUSTAINED SPEEDS WILL RANGE FROM 15 TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS
INTO THIS EVENING. GUSTS SHOULD TAPER OFF BY LATE EVENING...AND
SUSTAINED WINDS WILL ALSO DECREASE TO 10 TO 12 KTS. THIS WILL BE
SHORT-LIVED THOUGH AS THEY INCRASE AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING BEHIND
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO
20 KTS ONCE AGAIN WITH GUSTS UP TO 32 KTS. THEY WILL REMAIN
WESTERLY.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...TDUD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
259 PM CST SAT JAN 28 2012
.DISCUSSION...
DAYS 1-2...
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES TO THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH OF THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON PROVIDING LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE BULK OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THE AIRMASS IS QUITE DRY AND AFTERNOON MIXING
HAS CREATED VERY LOW DEW POINTS ACROSS THE AREA THAT HAVE PUSHED
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES INTO THE 15 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS A LARGE
PORTION OF THE EAST. WITH WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH, THIS
HAS BROUGHT CONDITIONS CLOSE TO RED FLAG THIS AFTERNOON. IT IS
LIKELY SOME LOCATIONS OF THE EAST CENTRAL INCLUDING PRATT AND
STAFFORD COUNTIES MIGHT REACH THE RED FLAG RH AND WIND ELEMENTS
LOCALLY, BUT IT DOES NOT APPEAR A TIME THRESHOLD FOR TRUE RED FLAG
WARNING WILL BE MET SINCE TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO RADIATIONAL
COOL RAPIDLY BY 5 PM.
THE MODELS SHOW FAIRLY SIMILAR FIELDS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
ON THE SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE. THE WARM UP THAT WAS FORECAST IS STILL
EXPECTED. DEW POINTS SHOULD INCREASE FROM THE VERY LOW VALUES WE
OBSERVED THIS AFTERNOON, AS THE SURFACE ANTICYCLONE DRIFTS INTO THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MAINLY SUNNY SKIES ARE ANTICIPATED AS
WELL, ALTHOUGH SOME CIRRUS MY BE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ASSOCIATED THE
NORTHWESTERLY ORIENTED JET. AS THE UPPER FLOW SLOWLY BECOMES ZONAL
OVER WESTERN KANSAS, A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED
ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO ALLOWING SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH WINDS OVER
ACROSS OUR COUNTIES. BOUNDARY LAYER THETA-E WILL INCREASE THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY PERIOD ALLOWING AFTERNOON HIGHS TO RISE
THROUGH THE LOW 50S ON SUNDAY AND THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S ON
MONDAY. LOWS WILL PROBABLY NOT GET QUITE AS COLD WITH SOME LIGHT
WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND LESS DRY AIR. STILL - TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT MAY REACH THE UPPER TEENS WITH VERY STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING, BUT THETA-E INCREASE ON SUNDAY SHOULD LIMIT COOLING TO THE
UPPER 20S ON SUNDAY NIGHT.
DAYS 3-7...
WESTERLY FLOW WILL IMPROVE EARLY NEXT AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MOVE OUT OF THE PACIFIC AND ACROSS THE WESTERN/CENTRAL
UNITED STATES. THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ON TRACK TO
CROSS OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON TUESDAY WITH
THE NEXT, STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FORECAST TO DIG FURTHER SOUTH
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY EARLY THURSDAY. FOR WESTERN KANSAS THE
MOISTURE WITH EACH OF THESE SYSTEMS APPEAR TO BE CONFINED MAINLY IN
THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS. ON TUESDAY THERE WILL BE SOME UPPER LEVEL
JET DYNAMICS IN THE NORTH WHILE ON THURSDAY THERE WILL BE BETTER MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES, 700MB IMPROVING FRONTOGENESIS, AND 850MB WARM AIR
ADVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AHEAD
OF THIS WAVE. MAIN CONCERN THIS SECOND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS THE
EVOLUTION AND TRACK GIVEN THAT THE NEW GFS AND ECMWF ARE NOW
DIFFERING FROM PREVIOUS RUNS. AS A RESULT CONFIDENCE AFTER DAY 5 IS
LOW SO GIVEN THIS WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND LEAVE
THE LATER PERIODS FREE FROM ANY TYPE OF PRECIPITATION.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRIEFLY RETURN ON
TUESDAY BEHIND OUR FIRST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. TEMPERATURES THEN
BRIEFLY WARM MID TO LATE WEEK UNTIL OUR ANOTHER COLD FRONT RETURNS
ON FRIDAY AS THE SECOND, STRONGER, UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS.
$$
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 15 TO NEAR 20 KT RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON BASED ON MIXED LAYER WINDS FROM THE RUC AND NAM MODEL
SOUNDINGS. THESE GUSTY AFTERNOON WINDS WILL THEN SUBSIDE AFTER
SUNSET AS THE ATMOSPHERE DECOUPLES. MODELS SOUNDINGS TODAY ALSO
INDICATING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
$$
18
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 19 59 27 64 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 19 59 25 64 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 23 59 27 65 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 22 58 27 65 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 20 58 26 65 / 0 0 0 0
P28 21 58 27 63 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1106 AM CST SAT JAN 28 2012
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CST SAT JAN 28 2012
PERSISTENT DOWNSLOPE FLOW IN THE MID LEVELS WILL ALLOW FOR A FAIRLY
DECENT WARM-UP IN TEMPERATURES TODAY AND SUNDAY. THE SURFACE HIGH
WHICH WAS CENTERED OVER COLORADO DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WILL
SHIFT SOUTHEAST TO THE RED RIVER VALLEY...RESULTING IN A GENERAL
WEST WIND ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. HIGHS SHOULD REACH UPPER 40S WITH
EASE AND A FEW 50 DEGREE READINGS WILL LIKELY DOT SOUTHWEST KANSAS
AS WELL.
ANOTHER NORTHWEST FLOW JET STREAK WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTHEAST AND
HAVE NO IMPACT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...IN FACT AFTER THIS JET PASSES BY WE WILL
START TO SEE A MARKED INCREASE IN THE LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES/TEMPERATURE. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE +6 TO +8C AND
DESPITE THE FAIRLY SHALLOW WINTER MIXING DEPTHS, HIGHS WELL INTO THE
50S TO NEAR 60 WILL LIKELY OCCUR GIVEN THIS WARM OF A LOWER
TROPOSPHERE FROM DOWNSLOPE. WINDS WILL RESPOND MARGINALLY TO A LEE
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...MORE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST ON
SUNDAY VERSUS DUE WEST LIKE WE WILL SEE TODAY. THE SOUTHWEST WINDS
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES ABOVE AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 20S ACROSS MOST OF THE DDC
FORECAST AREA. -UMSCHEID
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CST SAT JAN 28 2012
THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS 12Z MONDAY AND GENERALLY IS MARKED BY DRY
CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
MONDAY:
THE BEGINNING OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK LOOKS TO BE A RELATIVELY WARM
ONE. A RATHER BROAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED OVER
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE 28.00Z ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE
COMPARED TO THE 28.00Z GFS WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE. RELIED MORE
HEAVILY ON THE ECMWF FOR GRID MODIFICATIONS GIVEN THE POOR
PERFORMANCE OF THE GFS RECENTLY. DOWNSTREAM OF THE SHORTWAVE, A WARM
AIR ADVECTION PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. LEE
TROUGHING AND 850 HPA TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 11 TO 15 DEG C
RANGE PLUS A BIT OF DOWNSLOPE SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL
PROMOTE HIGH TEMPERATURES PEAKING WELL INTO THE 60S DEG F.
TUESDAY:
THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY TUESDAY
AND WILL DRIVE A WEAK COLD FRONT ALONG WITH IT. NEGATIVE TEMPERATURE
ADVECTION IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONT IS NOT VERY STRONG ALTHOUGH
ENOUGH TO DRIVE TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN INTO THE 50S DEG F. EVEN IF
THE 50S DEG F OCCUR, THESE VALUES ARE STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL (NORM
IS IN THE 40S DEG F). THIS FRONT WILL BE MAINLY DRY SO HAVE CONTINUE
WITH THE ALLBLEND POP GRIDS THAT ARE LESS THAN 15 PERCENT.
WEDNESDAY:
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE ROCKIES
AND WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS BY MIDWEEK. EVEN
THOUGH KANSAS WILL BECOME IN A MORE FAVORABLE JET STREAK QUADRANT
(RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION), MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE LOOKS
MAINLY TO BE LIMITED TO THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE (600 TO 400
HPA). AS A RESULT AND AFTER COORDINATION WITH OTHER WFOS, HAVE
CAPPED OFF THE POP VALUES TO 14 PERCENT (FROM 15 TO 16 PERCENT).
THURSDAY:
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE PLAINS THURSDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES STARTING OUT COOL IN THE MORNING. COORDINATED WITH
OTHER WFO OFFICES IN USING THE BCALLBLEND AS THE COOL HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER SLIDES ACROSS KANSAS. EXPECT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID
50S DEG F FOR HIGHS AND 20S DEG F FOR LOWS.
FRIDAY/SATURDAY:
DID NOT STRAY MUCH FROM THE ALLBLEND APPROACH AS CONFIDENCE
DECREASES THIS FAR OUT IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC
PATTERN IN BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR PRECIPITATION FOR
SW KANSAS. A LARGE AMPLIFIED 500 HPA RIDGE IS FORECAST OVER THE
ROCKIES AND WILL PUT KANSAS IN A DRY NW/N FLOW ALOFT CONFIGURATION.
THIS COULD FAVOR PASSAGES OF WEAK/DRY FRONTS. TEMPERATURES WILL
STILL CONTINUE TO TREND ABOVE NORMAL IN THIS LA NINA WINTER. -SUGDEN
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1105 AM CST SAT JAN 28 2012
WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 15 TO NEAR 20 KT RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON BASED ON MIXED LAYER WINDS FROM THE RUC AND NAM MODEL
SOUNDINGS. THESE GUSTY AFTERNOON WINDS WILL THEN SUBSIDE AFTER
SUNSET AS THE ATMOSPHERE DECOUPLES. MODELS SOUNDINGS TODAY ALSO INDICATING
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 312 AM CST SAT JAN 28 2012
WE WILL BE WATCHING FOR NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL KANSAS TODAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL BE STRONGEST ACROSS THE INTERSTATE-70 CORRIDOR. SURFACE WINDS
SHOULD INCREASE TO 18 TO 24 KNOTS IN THIS AREA. THE DEWPOINT AND
RESULTING RELATIVE HUMIDITY FORECAST IS TRICKY...BUT AT THIS TIME WE
BELIEVE THE MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL STAY ABOVE THE
15 PERCENT THRESHOLD FOR CRITICAL FIRE. WILL MENTION "NEAR
CRITICAL" FIRE WEATHER IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. ANOTHER
WARM, DRY, AND BREEZY DAY IS EXPECTED SUNDAY WHICH WILL MOST LIKELY
YIELD NEAR-CRITICAL CONDITIONS AGAIN. -UMSCHEID
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 48 20 59 28 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 47 19 59 26 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 48 22 59 29 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 48 20 58 27 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 49 18 58 27 / 0 0 0 0
P28 48 23 58 29 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...25
SHORT TERM...25
LONG TERM....36
AVIATION...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
350 PM EST SAT JAN 28 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS WILL ZIP THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY THIS WEEKEND AND BRING A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS, ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
MAIN ADDITION WAS TO ADD MENTION OF MIX WITH SLEET LATE AFTERNOON. ALSO
UPPED WIND GUSTS TO 40 TO 45 MPH PER RECENT UPWIND SURFACE DATA
AND NAM MODEL PROFILES. RECENT RADAR DATA AND HRRR MODEL OUTPUT
SHOW POST FRONTAL SNOW SHOWERS ENDING EARLY TONIGHT, WITH MINIMAL
SNOW ACCUMULATION NORTH AND MOUNTAINS.
FORECASTED LOW TEMPERATURES TO BE NEAR NORMAL, USING BLEND OF NAM
AND GFS MOS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PER RECENT NAM MODEL OUTPUT, EXPECT CLIPPER-TYPE LOW PRESSURE
MOVING QUICKLY THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TO PUSH A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE A TAD COLDER THAN SATURDAY, HENCE MORE
AREAS CAN SEE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. ITS POSSIBLE THERE CAN BE SHORT
BURSTS OF SLEET, BUT HAVE HELD OFF MENTION. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WILL AGAIN BE MINIMAL.
WITH UPPER JETSTREAM FLOW BACKING SLIGHTLY INTO THE WEST
SOUTHWEST, THE NEXT CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM TO PASS EASTWARD THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES MAY HAVE LESS IMPACT ON THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY.
STILL INCLUDED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OF RAIN AND SNOW, BUT MAINLY
NORTH.
FORECASTED HIGHS MONDAY TO BE 2-3 DEGREES WARMER THAN SUNDAY.
RECENT ECMWF MODEL OUTPUT SHOWS A DRY BREAK MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS PROVIDING A WARM UP TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL, PER GFS AND NAEFS VALUES.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A COLD FRONT PASSAGE
WEDNESDAY AS THE ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES. BEYOND WEDNESDAY...THERE ARE INCONSISTENCIES FROM
RUN TO RUN WITH THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS KEEPING CONFIDENCE
RELATIVELY LOW ESPECIALLY INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
ALL MODELS SUGGEST A GRADUAL DEEPENING LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL U.S WITH THE GFS THE STRONGEST AND THE ECMWF AND GEFS
ENSEMBLES REMAINING LESS AMPLIFIED. THIS IN TURN MAKES LOW
PLACEMENT SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT BETWEEN THE MODELS. WITH SUCH A
WIDE SPREAD...OPTED TO REMAIN CLOSE TO HPC GUIDANCE FOR THE PERIOD
FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WHICH IS CLOSEST TO THE 00/12Z
ECMWF AND GEFS. THIS WOULD BRING A SURFACE LOW SOUTH ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS AND OFF THE COAST BY FRIDAY.
KEPT TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO AN HPC MEX BLEND WHICH SEEMED TO MATCH UP
WELL WITH NAEFS TRENDS.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT WILL KEEP TERMINALS MVFR WITH POSSIBLE IFR
VSBY IN SNOW THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. TRIED BEST TO TIME THE
COLD FRONT PASSAGE THROUGH ALL TERMINAL SITES BY 22Z BASED OFF OF
CURRENT SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS AS WELL AS LAMP GUIDANCE.
CONDITIONS SHOULD QUICKLY IMPROVE TO VFR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WITH
THE EXCEPTION BEING KFKL AND KDUJ WHICH MAY TAKE LONGER TO IMPROVE.
WINDS WILL VEER MORE WESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND GUSTS TO 35-40MPH
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS
SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH BY SUNSET TO 10KTS OR LESS AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN BRIEFLY BEFORE THE NEXT QUICK MOVING SYSTEM APPROACHES
SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
THE POTENTIAL FOR RESTRICTIONS WILL EXIST AGAIN SUNDAY AFTN AS
ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH GENERATES SNOW SHOWERS FOR MOST TERMINALS. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE THEN ANTICIPATED MONDAY AND TUESDAY UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
1125 AM EST SAT JAN 28 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS WILL ZIP THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY THIS WEEKEND AND BRING A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS, ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TWEAKED HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND WEATHER FORECASTS THROUGH EVENING,
BASED ON RECENT SURFACE AND RADAR DATA AND HRRR MODEL OUTPUT.
SLIGHTLY RAISED POSTFRONTAL WIND GUSTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO
30-35 MPH PER NAM MODEL OUTPUT.
WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY WARMER THAN 32 BEFORE SHOWERS WANE THIS
EVENING, EXPECT NO MORE THAN TRIVIAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND NORTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE, AND ITS WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT,
WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO REGION ON SUNDAY. WITH
TEMPERATURES A TAD COLDER THAN SATURDAY, EXPECT THE MAIN
PRECIPITATION TYPE TO BE SNOW, WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATION FOR AREAS NORTH OF I 70.
BUILDING HIGH IN THE WAKE OF THAT TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DRY THE
WEATHER AGAIN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
SHORT-TERM TEMPERATURES WERE PROGGED NEAR THE SEASONAL
NORMALS...AGAIN USING A GUIDANCE BLEND.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS PROJECTED TO MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES COAST TUESDAY...WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING DRY. MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS CANADA AND
BRINGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION...ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME
DISAGREEMENT WITH TIMING. AVERAGE TIMING PUTS FRONTAL PASSAGE
AROUND WEDNESDAY...AND HAVE PUT HIGHEST POPS IN THE FORECAST AT
THAT TIME. 12Z GFS/ECMWF ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THEIR 00Z
COUNTERPARTS IN DEVELOPING A LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES...AND MOVING IT OFFSHORE OF NEW YORK CITY BY FRIDAY
MORNING. THIS BRINGS IN POPS FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO THE WEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MVFR STRATOCUMULUS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE COLD
FRONT. SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS
TO 25 KTS.
LIGHT MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS CAN MAINTAIN MVFR RESTRICTIONS. SPOTTY
IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH, WHERE SNOW
SHOWERS CAN BE MORE THE PREVALENT WEATHER TYPE.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY WITH GUSTS TO
25-30 KTS INTO EARLY EVENING, THEN DIMINISH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 KTS
OR LESS. AS PRECIPITATION ENDS THIS EVENING, STRATOCUMULUS
CEILINGS WILL LIFT TO VFR TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
POTENTIAL FOR RESTRICTIONS WILL EXIST AGAIN SUNDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER
TROUGH GENERATES SNOW SHOWERS FOR MOST TERMINALS. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE THEN ANTICIPATED MONDAY AND TUESDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. A
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
RESTRICTIONS ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
500 PM EST SAT JAN 28 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT JUST NORTH OF THE REGION TODAY...BRINGING A
SHARP COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING. THIS WILL
BRING WINDY CONDITIONS THIS EVENING AND SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST OF
THE LAKES TONIGHT. ANOTHER FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY...WHICH WILL BRING A A GENERAL LIGHT
SNOWFALL TO WESTERN NEW YORK FOLLOWED BY MORE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
EAST OF THE LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT. A THIRD FAST MOVING SYSTEM WILL
BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SNOW LATE MONDAY BEFORE ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT
WARM UP BY MIDWEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MADE A QUICK UPDATE TO INCLUDE MONROE COUNTY IN THE WIND ADVISORY
THIS EVENING. WILL ALSO ISSUE A LAKE SHORE FLOOD ADVISORY FOR
CHAUTAUQUA AND SOUTHERN ERIE COUNTIES DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR
FLOODING WITH THE STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS.
THE LATEST MOMENTUM TRANSFER SCHEMES SUGGEST THAT WINDS EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO WILL ALSO GUST UP TO ADVISORY CRITERIA LATER THIS EVENING
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT. BASED ON THIS TREND...WILL
ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR AREAS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE NORTH WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING. AS OF 300 PM...ENTERING FAR WESTERN NEW
YORK NEAR BUFFALO.
THIS FRONT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY
ALONG LAKE ERIE AND THE NIAGARA FRONTIER. THE 12Z RUNS OF THE NAM/GFS
SHOWS WINDS AT 2000 FEET OF 50 TO 55 KTS...WITH SEVERAL RUC RUNS
SHOWING UP TO 60 KTS. WHILE THIS MAY NOT MIX DOWN ACROSS THE
INTERIOR VALLEYS...POST FRONTAL SW FLOW DO TYPICALLY MIX QUITE WELL
ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK...WHERE HIGHER TERRAIN HELPS FUNNEL
WINDS ALONG LAKE ERIE...AND ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER. EXPECT
SEVERAL HOURS OF WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH IN THIS REGION...WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS LIKELY BETWEEN 500 PM AND 900 PM.
THE OTHER ISSUE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SNOW FALL...MAINLY OF THE
LAKE EFFECT VARIETY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW WILL
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST. WITH TEMPERATURES WARMER THERE...SNOW WILL
MIX WITH RAIN AT TIMES...WHICH WILL LIMIT PREFRONTAL ACCUMULATION.
WINDS WILL BOTH INCREASE AND SHIFT TO THE SW BEHIND THE FRONT. 850
MB TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO AROUND -12C BEHIND THE FRONT...WHICH
WILL ONLY RESULT IN MODEST INSTABILITY OFF LAKE ERIE. WITH THE
STRONG FLOW LIMITING FETCH...EXPECT ONLY LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOWS OFF
LAKE ERIE...WITH VERY LIMITED ACCUMULATIONS.
OFF LAKE ONTARIO IS A DIFFERENT STORY...SINCE LAKE ONTARIO IS A BIT
WARMER...THE FLOW SHOULD BE FAIRLY WELL ALIENED FROM THE WSW ACROSS
THE LAKE. THIS WOULD PROBABLY STILL NOT BE ENOUGH FOR SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS...EXCEPT THAT TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY THE TUG HILL...WILL
FURTHER ENHANCE QPF. THE ENTIRE REGION EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO SHOULD
GET AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE AFTERNOON. AFTER
THIS...LAKE EFFECT BANDS WILL SET UP...WITH WINDS LIKELY TO SUPPORT
A BAND SOMEWHERE NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE JEFFERSON/OSWEGO COUNTY
LINE. INITIALLY...EXPECT STRONG WINDS TO PREVENT AN ORGANIZED
CONVERGENCE BAND ON THE LAKE...WITH UPSLOPING THE BEST LIFTING
MECHANISM...FOCUSING STEADIEST SNOWS ON THE TUG HILL. THE RGEM KEYS
ON THIS...AS IT TYPICALLY WILL FORECAST LAKE BANDS WELL...BUT
INSTEAD IT KEYS ON THE UPSLOPING ON THE TUG HILL...AND ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN IN INTERIOR LEWIS COUNTY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH A BIT LATER IN
THE NIGHT...POTENTIALLY ALLOWING SOME ORGANIZATION OF A TIGHTER BUT
MORE INTENSE BAND...BEFORE MOISTURE DIMINISHES ON THE BACK OF THE
EXITING UPPER TROF. WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN
PLACE. CONFIDENCE IS NOT TERRIBLY HIGH...WITH STRONG WINDS
POTENTIALLY A LIMITING FACTOR...BUT GIVEN GOOD MOISTURE EARLY IN THE
EVENT...AND THE UPSLOPE COMPONENT...4 TO 7 INCHES STILL LOOKS
REASONABLE IN PORTIONS OF THE ADVISORY AREA.
FOR SUNDAY...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD TO THE
SOUTH...AS ANOTHER CLIPPER LOW DEVELOPS TO THE WEST. THE MORNING
HOURS WOULD BE UNEVENTFUL...EXCEPT FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A LAKE
EFFECT BAND TO LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM WSW TO SSW...SUPPORTING THE
LIFTING OF WHATEVER LAKE SNOWS REMAIN. INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL
BE QUITE LIMITED BY THEN...BUT STILL MAY SEE A PERIOD OF LAKE SNOWS
DURING THE SUNDAY MORNING HOURS...WITH MINIMAL ACCUMULATION. A
SIMILAR STORY WILL PLAY OUT EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...WITH THE BAND
THERE ALSO LIKELY TO LIFT NORTH TOWARD WATERTOWN TOWARD DAYBREAK.
AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY...EXPECT A
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD BUT GENERALLY LIGHT SNOWFALL FOR MOST OF THE
REGION. WHILE THE LAKES WILL PLAY SOME ROLE ENHANCING MOISTURE...THE
MAIN SOURCE OF LIFT WILL BE THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WITH THE LOW. THIS
SHOULD START IN MOST LOCATIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. USING A
BLEND OF THE RGEM/NAM12 QPF...EXPECT AN INCH OR SO ACROSS INTERIOR
SECTIONS...WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES EAST OF THE LAKES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SURFACE LOW...COLDER AIR ARRIVES WITH
850 MB TEMPS FALLING FROM -8C TO -11C AT THE START OF THE NIGHT TO
ABOUT -14C/-15C BY MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL TRIGGER THE REDEVELOPMENT OF
SOME ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOWS TO THE EAST AND EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF BOTH LAKES...WITH THE ACTIVITY PEAKING BETWEEN THE EARLY TO MID
EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS...THEN WEAKENING THEREAFTER AS
STRONG LOW LEVEL RIDGING AND INCREASING AMOUNTS OF DRIER
AIR/SUBSIDENCE BUILD EAST FROM THE CENTRAL LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY.
THE SHORT-LIVED NATURE OF THE MOST FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WOULD TEND
TO RESULT IN BORDERLINE ADVISORY CRITERIA ACCUMULATIONS EAST AND
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BOTH LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCES
FOR THIS TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE LONGER FETCH
AND MODEL-IMPLIED UPSTREAM CONNECTION TO GEORGIAN BAY WILL BE MORE
FAVORABLE.
DURING MONDAY...THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST TO EASTERN
NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WHILE THE NEXT WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE PUSHES EAST INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. IN BETWEEN THESE
TWO FEATURES...A WARM ADVECTION PATTERN WILL SET UP ACROSS THE
AREA...WEAKENING AND SUPPRESSING ANY REMAINING LAKE EFFECT SNOWS.
LATE MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE SWATH OF LIGHT WARM ADVECTIVE
SNOW SHOWERS LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA...AS THE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES EASTWARD OF THE REGION AND THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES LOW PUSHES ITS WARM FRONT NORTHEAST INTO NEW YORK STATE. WILL
BROADBRUSH MID-RANGE CHANCE POPS DURING THIS PERIOD...WHEN SOME
LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AREAWIDE.
TEMPS WILL BE MUCH CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY WITH LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TEENS TO LOWER 20S AND HIGHS IN THE
20S TO NEAR 30 DEGREES. EXPECT WARMER TEMPS AGAIN ON TUESDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND THE LOWER
TO MID 40S ELSEWHERE. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL KEEP TUESDAY NIGHT LOWS
QUITE MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH MID 20S TO LOW 30S EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO AND THE LOWER TO MID 30S FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST
AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE A RETURN TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE ZONAL
FLOW...WITH A SERIES OF LOW AMPLITUDE WAVES MOVING ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER AND KEEPING A GENERAL CHANCE OF PRECIP IN PLACE
RIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH MILDER PACIFIC AIR DOMINATING OUR
REGION UNDER THIS PATTERN...TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN REBOUND TO ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS...AND WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX AT
NIGHT...WITH RAIN THE MORE DOMINANT PRECIP TYPE DURING THE DAYTIME
PERIODS. AT THIS POINT...THE WARMEST TIME FRAME APPEARS TO BE
WEDNESDAY...WHEN TEMPS SHOULD AT LEAST SURGE WELL INTO THE 40S IN
THE WARM SECTOR OF THE SECOND AND STRONGEST WAVE IN THE SERIES OF
SURFACE LOWS.
LATE IN THE PERIOD...THE GFS/ECMWF BOTH SUGGEST A RETURN OF
LARGER-SCALE TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY AS
ANOTHER LARGE BUT ALSO PROGRESSIVE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN A RETURN TO SEASONABLY
COLDER TEMPS FOR WEEK`S END. EXPECT A COLDER BUT DRY NORTHERLY FLOW
ON SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING. AHEAD OF THIS...WITH BE PERIODS OF SNOW...MIXED WITH RAIN AT
TIMES. EXPECT LOWEST CONDITIONS TO BE WEST AT BUF/IAG/JHW...WHERE
PERIODS OF LIFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF THE AREAS OF
SNOW.
THE FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN 21Z AND
00Z...WHICH WILL CAUSE WINDS TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY. EXPECT
BUF/IAG TO BOTH EXPERIENCE GUSTS TO 40 KTS FROM THE POST-FRONTAL
SW FLOW...BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...CIGS
AND VSBY SHOULD IMPROVE BEHIND THE FRONT...AS SNOW SHOWERS TAPER
OFF...AND DRIER AIR WORKS IN.
SUNDAY SHOULD START OFF VFR/MVFR BEHIND THE FRONT...HOWEVER A LAKE
EFFECT SNOW BAND MAY CROSS ART AT SOME POINT DURING THE MORNING
HOURS.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS EARLY...IMPROVING
OVERNIGHT.
MONDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH AREAS OF SNOW.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SLIGHT CHANCE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SWING BY JUST NORTH OF LAKES ERIE AND
ONTARIO THIS EVENING...WITH A SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT CROSSING THE
LAKES LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE
THROUGH THIS EVENING...AS A 50 TO 55 KT FLOW ALOFT PARTIALLY MIXES
DOWN IN THE SW FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT. EXPECT WINDS TO 40 KTS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE WATERS THIS EVENING...WITHOUT HIS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING
LATER TONIGHT.
WHILE WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW GALES LATE TONIGHT...MODERATE TO
STRONG WESTERLIES WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SOLID
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
LOWER LAKES MONDAY WITH DIMINISHING WINDS.
OTHERWISE...A SERIES OF WEAK SYSTEMS WILL PASS THROUGH LATE NEXT
WILL...WITH WINDS GENERALLY ON THE LIGHT SIDE OUTSIDE OF A FEW
PERIODS WHERE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NYZ007-
008.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NYZ006>008.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ001>003-010-
011-019-085.
LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
NYZ019-085.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LEZ020-040-041.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ030.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ042>045-062>065.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/TJP
SHORT TERM...WCH
LONG TERM...JJR/WCH
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
324 PM EST SAT JAN 28 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT JUST NORTH OF THE REGION TODAY...BRINGING A
SHARP COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING. THIS WILL
BRING WINDY CONDITIONS THIS EVENING AND SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST OF
THE LAKES TONIGHT. ANOTHER FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY...WHICH WILL BRING A A GENERAL LIGHT
SNOWFALL TO WESTERN NEW YORK FOLLOWED BY MORE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
EAST OF THE LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT. A THIRD FAST MOVING SYSTEM WILL
BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SNOW LATE MONDAY BEFORE ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT
WARM UP BY MIDWEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE NORTH WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING. AS OF 300 PM...ENTERING FAR WESTERN NEW
YORK NEAR BUFFALO.
THIS FRONT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY
ALONG LAKE ERIE AND THE NIAGARA FRONTIER. THE 12Z RUNS OF THE NAM/GFS
SHOWS WINDS AT 2000 FEET OF 50 TO 55 KTS...WITH SEVERAL RUC RUNS
SHOWING UP TO 60 KTS. WHILE THIS MAY NOT MIX DOWN ACROSS THE
INTERIOR VALLEYS...POST FRONTAL SW FLOW DO TYPICALLY MIX QUITE WELL
ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK...WHERE HIGHER TERRAIN HELPS FUNNEL
WINDS ALONG LAKE ERIE...AND ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER. EXPECT
SEVERAL HOURS OF WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH IN THIS REGION...WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS LIKELY BETWEEN 500 PM AND 900 PM.
THE OTHER ISSUE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SNOW FALL...MAINLY OF THE
LAKE EFFECT VARIETY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW WILL
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST. WITH TEMPERATURES WARMER THERE...SNOW WILL
MIX WITH RAIN AT TIMES...WHICH WILL LIMIT PREFRONTAL ACCUMULATION.
WINDS WILL BOTH INCREASE AND SHIFT TO THE SW BEHIND THE FRONT. 850
MB TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO AROUND -12C BEHIND THE FRONT...WHICH
WILL ONLY RESULT IN MODEST INSTABILITY OFF LAKE ERIE. WITH THE
STRONG FLOW LIMITING FETCH...EXPECT ONLY LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOWS OFF
LAKE ERIE...WITH VERY LIMITED ACCUMULATIONS.
OFF LAKE ONTARIO IS A DIFFERENT STORY...SINCE LAKE ONTARIO IS A BIT
WARMER...THE FLOW SHOULD BE FAIRLY WELL ALIENED FROM THE WSW ACROSS
THE LAKE. THIS WOULD PROBABLY STILL NOT BE ENOUGH FOR SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS...EXCEPT THAT TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY THE TUG HILL...WILL
FURTHER ENHANCE QPF. THE ENTIRE REGION EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO SHOULD
GET AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE AFTERNOON. AFTER
THIS...LAKE EFFECT BANDS WILL SET UP...WITH WINDS LIKELY TO SUPPORT
A BAND SOMEWHERE NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE JEFFERSON/OSWEGO COUNTY
LINE. INITIALLY...EXPECT STRONG WINDS TO PREVENT AN ORGANIZED
CONVERGENCE BAND ON THE LAKE...WITH UPSLOPING THE BEST LIFTING
MECHANISM...FOCUSING STEADIEST SNOWS ON THE TUG HILL. THE RGEM KEYS
ON THIS...AS IT TYPICALLY WILL FORECAST LAKE BANDS WELL...BUT
INSTEAD IT KEYS ON THE UPSLOPING ON THE TUG HILL...AND ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN IN INTERIOR LEWIS COUNTY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH A BIT LATER IN
THE NIGHT...POTENTIALLY ALLOWING SOME ORGANIZATION OF A TIGHTER BUT
MORE INTENSE BAND...BEFORE MOISTURE DIMINISHES ON THE BACK OF THE
EXITING UPPER TROF. WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN
PLACE. CONFIDENCE IS NOT TERRIBLY HIGH...WITH STRONG WINDS
POTENTIALLY A LIMITING FACTOR...BUT GIVEN GOOD MOISTURE EARLY IN THE
EVENT...AND THE UPSLOPE COMPONENT...4 TO 7 INCHES STILL LOOKS
REASONABLE IN PORTIONS OF THE ADVISORY AREA.
FOR SUNDAY...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD TO THE
SOUTH...AS ANOTHER CLIPPER LOW DEVELOPS TO THE WEST. THE MORNING
HOURS WOULD BE UNEVENTFUL...EXCEPT FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A LAKE
EFFECT BAND TO LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM WSW TO SSW...SUPPORTING THE
LIFTING OF WHATEVER LAKE SNOWS REMAIN. INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL
BE QUITE LIMITED BY THEN...BUT STILL MAY SEE A PERIOD OF LAKE SNOWS
DURING THE SUNDAY MORNING HOURS...WITH MINIMAL ACCUMULATION. A
SIMILAR STORY WILL PLAY OUT EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...WITH THE BAND
THERE ALSO LIKELY TO LIFT NORTH TOWARD WATERTOWN TOWARD DAYBREAK.
AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY...EXPECT A
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD BUT GENERALLY LIGHT SNOWFALL FOR MOST OF THE
REGION. WHILE THE LAKES WILL PLAY SOME ROLE ENHANCING MOISTURE...THE
MAIN SOURCE OF LIFT WILL BE THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WITH THE LOW. THIS
SHOULD START IN MOST LOCATIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. USING A
BLEND OF THE RGEM/NAM12 QPF...EXPECT AN INCH OR SO ACROSS INTERIOR
SECTIONS...WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES EAST OF THE LAKES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SURFACE LOW...COLDER AIR ARRIVES WITH
850 MB TEMPS FALLING FROM -8C TO -11C AT THE START OF THE NIGHT TO
ABOUT -14C/-15C BY MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL TRIGGER THE REDEVELOPMENT OF
SOME ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOWS TO THE EAST AND EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF BOTH LAKES...WITH THE ACTIVITY PEAKING BETWEEN THE EARLY TO MID
EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS...THEN WEAKENING THEREAFTER AS
STRONG LOW LEVEL RIDGING AND INCREASING AMOUNTS OF DRIER
AIR/SUBSIDENCE BUILD EAST FROM THE CENTRAL LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY.
THE SHORT-LIVED NATURE OF THE MOST FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WOULD TEND
TO RESULT IN BORDERLINE ADVISORY CRITERIA ACCUMULATIONS EAST AND
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BOTH LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCES
FOR THIS TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE LONGER FETCH
AND MODEL-IMPLIED UPSTREAM CONNECTION TO GEORGIAN BAY WILL BE MORE
FAVORABLE.
DURING MONDAY...THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST TO EASTERN
NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WHILE THE NEXT WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE PUSHES EAST INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. IN BETWEEN THESE
TWO FEATURES...A WARM ADVECTION PATTERN WILL SET UP ACROSS THE
AREA...WEAKENING AND SUPPRESSING ANY REMAINING LAKE EFFECT SNOWS.
LATE MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE SWATH OF LIGHT WARM ADVECTIVE
SNOW SHOWERS LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA...AS THE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES EASTWARD OF THE REGION AND THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES LOW PUSHES ITS WARM FRONT NORTHEAST INTO NEW YORK STATE. WILL
BROADBRUSH MID-RANGE CHANCE POPS DURING THIS PERIOD...WHEN SOME
LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AREAWIDE.
TEMPS WILL BE MUCH CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY WITH LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TEENS TO LOWER 20S AND HIGHS IN THE
20S TO NEAR 30 DEGREES. EXPECT WARMER TEMPS AGAIN ON TUESDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND THE LOWER
TO MID 40S ELSEWHERE. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL KEEP TUESDAY NIGHT LOWS
QUITE MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH MID 20S TO LOW 30S EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO AND THE LOWER TO MID 30S FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST
AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE A RETURN TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE ZONAL
FLOW...WITH A SERIES OF LOW AMPLITUDE WAVES MOVING ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER AND KEEPING A GENERAL CHANCE OF PRECIP IN PLACE
RIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH MILDER PACIFIC AIR DOMINATING OUR
REGION UNDER THIS PATTERN...TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN REBOUND TO ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS...AND WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX AT
NIGHT...WITH RAIN THE MORE DOMINANT PRECIP TYPE DURING THE DAYTIME
PERIODS. AT THIS POINT...THE WARMEST TIME FRAME APPEARS TO BE
WEDNESDAY...WHEN TEMPS SHOULD AT LEAST SURGE WELL INTO THE 40S IN
THE WARM SECTOR OF THE SECOND AND STRONGEST WAVE IN THE SERIES OF
SURFACE LOWS.
LATE IN THE PERIOD...THE GFS/ECMWF BOTH SUGGEST A RETURN OF
LARGER-SCALE TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY AS
ANOTHER LARGE BUT ALSO PROGRESSIVE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN A RETURN TO SEASONABLY
COLDER TEMPS FOR WEEK`S END. EXPECT A COLDER BUT DRY NORTHERLY FLOW
ON SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING. AHEAD OF THIS...WITH BE PERIODS OF SNOW...MIXED WITH RAIN AT
TIMES. EXPECT LOWEST CONDITIONS TO BE WEST AT BUF/IAG/JHW...WHERE
PERIODS OF LIFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF THE AREAS OF
SNOW.
THE FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN 21Z AND
00Z...WHICH WILL CAUSE WINDS TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY. EXPECT
BUF/IAG TO BOTH EXPERIENCE GUSTS TO 40 KTS FROM THE POST-FRONTAL
SW FLOW...BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...CIGS
AND VSBY SHOULD IMPROVE BEHIND THE FRONT...AS SNOW SHOWERS TAPER
OFF...AND DRIER AIR WORKS IN.
SUNDAY SHOULD START OFF VFR/MVFR BEHIND THE FRONT...HOWEVER A LAKE
EFFECT SNOW BAND MAY CROSS ART AT SOME POINT DURING THE MORNING
HOURS.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS EARLY...IMPROVING
OVERNIGHT.
MONDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH AREAS OF SNOW.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SLIGHT CHANCE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SWING BY JUST NORTH OF LAKES ERIE AND
ONTARIO THIS EVENING...WITH A SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT CROSSING THE
LAKES LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE
THROUGH THIS EVENING...AS A 50 TO 55 KT FLOW ALOFT PARTIALLY MIXES
DOWN IN THE SW FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT. EXPECT WINDS TO 40 KTS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE WATERS THIS EVENING...WITHOUT HIS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING
LATER TONIGHT.
WHILE WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW GALES LATE TONIGHT...MODERATE TO
STRONG WESTERLIES WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SOLID
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
LOWER LAKES MONDAY WITH DIMINISHING WINDS.
OTHERWISE...A SERIES OF WEAK SYSTEMS WILL PASS THROUGH LATE NEXT
WILL...WITH WINDS GENERALLY ON THE LIGHT SIDE OUTSIDE OF A FEW
PERIODS WHERE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NYZ007-
008.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ001-002-010-
011-019-085.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LEZ020-040-041.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ030.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ042>045-062>065.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL
SHORT TERM...WCH
LONG TERM...JJR/WCH
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
316 PM EST SAT JAN 28 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT JUST NORTH OF THE REGION TODAY...BRINGING A
SHARP COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING. THIS WILL
BRING WINDY CONDITIONS THIS EVENING AND SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST OF
THE LAKES TONIGHT. ANOTHER FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY...WHICH WILL BRING A A GENERAL LIGHT
SNOWFALL TO WESTERN NEW YORK FOLLOWED BY MORE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
EAST OF THE LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT. A THIRD FAST MOVING SYSTEM WILL
BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SNOW LATE MONDAY BEFORE ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT
WARM UP BY MIDWEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE NORTH WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING. AS OF 300 PM...ENTERING FAR WESTERN NEW
YORK NEAR BUFFALO.
THIS FRONT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY
ALONG LAKE ERIE AND THE NIAGARA FRONTIER. THE 12Z RUNS OF THE NAM/GFS
SHOWS WINDS AT 2000 FEET OF 50 TO 55 KTS...WITH SEVERAL RUC RUNS
SHOWING UP TO 60 KTS. WHILE THIS MAY NOT MIX DOWN ACROSS THE
INTERIOR VALLEYS...POST FRONTAL SW FLOW DO TYPICALLY MIX QUITE WELL
ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK...WHERE HIGHER TERRAIN HELPS FUNNEL
WINDS ALONG LAKE ERIE...AND ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER. EXPECT
SEVERAL HOURS OF WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH IN THIS REGION...WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS LIKELY BETWEEN 500 PM AND 900 PM.
THE OTHER ISSUE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SNOW FALL...MAINLY OF THE
LAKE EFFECT VARIETY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW WILL
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST. WITH TEMPERATURES WARMER THERE...SNOW WILL
MIX WITH RAIN AT TIMES...WHICH WILL LIMIT PREFRONTAL ACCUMULATION.
WINDS WILL BOTH INCREASE AND SHIFT TO THE SW BEHIND THE FRONT. 850
MB TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO AROUND -12C BEHIND THE FRONT...WHICH
WILL ONLY RESULT IN MODEST INSTABILITY OFF LAKE ERIE. WITH THE
STRONG FLOW LIMITING FETCH...EXPECT ONLY LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOWS OFF
LAKE ERIE...WITH VERY LIMITED ACCUMULATIONS.
OFF LAKE ONTARIO IS A DIFFERENT STORY...SINCE LAKE ONTARIO IS A BIT
WARMER...THE FLOW SHOULD BE FAIRLY WELL ALIENED FROM THE WSW ACROSS
THE LAKE. THIS WOULD PROBABLY STILL NOT BE ENOUGH FOR SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS...EXCEPT THAT TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY THE TUG HILL...WILL
FURTHER ENHANCE QPF. THE ENTIRE REGION EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO SHOULD
GET AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE AFTERNOON. AFTER
THIS...LAKE EFFECT BANDS WILL SET UP...WITH WINDS LIKELY TO SUPPORT
A BAND SOMEWHERE NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE JEFFERSON/OSWEGO COUNTY
LINE. INITIALLY...EXPECT STRONG WINDS TO PREVENT AN ORGANIZED
CONVERGENCE BAND ON THE LAKE...WITH UPSLOPING THE BEST LIFTING
MECHANISM...FOCUSING STEADIEST SNOWS ON THE TUG HILL. THE RGEM KEYS
ON THIS...AS IT TYPICALLY WILL FORECAST LAKE BANDS WELL...BUT
INSTEAD IT KEYS ON THE UPSLOPING ON THE TUG HILL...AND ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN IN INTERIOR LEWIS COUNTY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH A BIT LATER IN
THE NIGHT...POTENTIALLY ALLOWING SOME ORGANIZATION OF A TIGHTER BUT
MORE INTENSE BAND...BEFORE MOISTURE DIMINISHES ON THE BACK OF THE
EXITING UPPER TROF. WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN
PLACE. CONFIDENCE IS NOT TERRIBLY HIGH...WITH STRONG WINDS
POTENTIALLY A LIMITING FACTOR...BUT GIVEN GOOD MOISTURE EARLY IN THE
EVENT...AND THE UPSLOPE COMPONENT...4 TO 7 INCHES STILL LOOKS
REASONABLE IN PORTIONS OF THE ADVISORY AREA.
FOR SUNDAY...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD TO THE
SOUTH...AS ANOTHER CLIPPER LOW DEVELOPS TO THE WEST. THE MORNING
HOURS WOULD BE UNEVENTFUL...EXCEPT FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A LAKE
EFFECT BAND TO LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM WSW TO SSW...SUPPORTING THE
LIFTING OF WHATEVER LAKE SNOWS REMAIN. INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL
BE QUITE LIMITED BY THEN...BUT STILL MAY SEE A PERIOD OF LAKE SNOWS
DURING THE SUNDAY MORNING HOURS...WITH MINIMAL ACCUMULATION. A
SIMILAR STORY WILL PLAY OUT EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...WITH THE BAND
THERE ALSO LIKELY TO LIFT NORTH TOWARD WATERTOWN TOWARD DAYBREAK.
AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY...EXPECT A
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD BUT GENERALLY LIGHT SNOWFALL FOR MOST OF THE
REGION. WHILE THE LAKES WILL PLAY SOME ROLE ENHANCING MOISTURE...THE
MAIN SOURCE OF LIFT WILL BE THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WITH THE LOW. THIS
SHOULD START IN MOST LOCATIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. USING A
BLEND OF THE RGEM/NAM12 QPF...EXPECT AN INCH OR SO ACROSS INTERIOR
SECTIONS...WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES EAST OF THE LAKES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SURFACE LOW...COLDER AIR ARRIVES WITH
850 MB TEMPS FALLING FROM -8C TO -11C AT THE START OF THE NIGHT TO
ABOUT -14C/-15C BY MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL TRIGGER THE REDEVELOPMENT OF
SOME ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOWS TO THE EAST AND EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF BOTH LAKES...WITH THE ACTIVITY PEAKING BETWEEN THE EARLY TO MID
EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS...THEN WEAKENING THEREAFTER AS
STRONG LOW LEVEL RIDGING AND INCREASING AMOUNTS OF DRIER
AIR/SUBSIDENCE BUILD EAST FROM THE CENTRAL LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY.
THE SHORT-LIVED NATURE OF THE MOST FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WOULD TEND
TO RESULT IN BORDERLINE ADVISORY CRITERIA ACCUMULATIONS EAST AND
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BOTH LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCES
FOR THIS TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE LONGER FETCH
AND MODEL-IMPLIED UPSTREAM CONNECTION TO GEORGIAN BAY WILL BE MORE
FAVORABLE.
DURING MONDAY...THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST TO EASTERN
NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WHILE THE NEXT WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE PUSHES EAST INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. IN BETWEEN THESE
TWO FEATURES...A WARM ADVECTION PATTERN WILL SET UP ACROSS THE
AREA...WEAKENING AND SUPPRESSING ANY REMAINING LAKE EFFECT SNOWS.
LATE MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE SWATH OF LIGHT WARM ADVECTIVE
SNOW SHOWERS LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA...AS THE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES EASTWARD OF THE REGION AND THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES LOW PUSHES ITS WARM FRONT NORTHEAST INTO NEW YORK STATE. WILL
BROADBRUSH MID-RANGE CHANCE POPS DURING THIS PERIOD...WHEN SOME
LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AREAWIDE.
TEMPS WILL BE MUCH CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY WITH LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TEENS TO LOWER 20S AND HIGHS IN THE
20S TO NEAR 30 DEGREES. EXPECT WARMER TEMPS AGAIN ON TUESDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND THE LOWER
TO MID 40S ELSEWHERE. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL KEEP TUESDAY NIGHT LOWS
QUITE MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH MID 20S TO LOW 30S EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO AND THE LOWER TO MID 30S FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST
AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE A RETURN TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE ZONAL
FLOW...WITH A SERIES OF LOW AMPLITUDE WAVES MOVING ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER AND KEEPING A GENERAL CHANCE OF PRECIP IN PLACE
RIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH MILDER PACIFIC AIR DOMINATING OUR
REGION UNDER THIS PATTERN...TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN REBOUND TO ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS...AND WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX AT
NIGHT...WITH RAIN THE MORE DOMINANT PRECIP TYPE DURING THE DAYTIME
PERIODS. AT THIS POINT...THE WARMEST TIME FRAME APPEARS TO BE
WEDNESDAY...WHEN TEMPS SHOULD AT LEAST SURGE WELL INTO THE 40S IN
THE WARM SECTOR OF THE SECOND AND STRONGEST WAVE IN THE SERIES OF
SURFACE LOWS.
LATE IN THE PERIOD...THE GFS/ECMWF BOTH SUGGEST A RETURN OF
LARGER-SCALE TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY AS
ANOTHER LARGE BUT ALSO PROGRESSIVE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN A RETURN TO SEASONABLY
COLDER TEMPS FOR WEEK`S END. EXPECT A COLDER BUT DRY NORTHERLY FLOW
ON SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING. AHEAD OF THIS...WITH BE PERIODS OF SNOW...MIXED WITH RAIN AT
TIMES. EXPECT LOWEST CONDITIONS TO BE WEST AT BUF/IAG/JHW...WHERE
PERIODS OF LIFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF THE AREAS OF
SNOW.
THE FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN 21Z AND
00Z...WHICH WILL CAUSE WINDS TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY. EXPECT
BUF/IAG TO BOTH EXPERIENCE GUSTS TO 40 KTS FROM THE POST-FRONTAL
SW FLOW...BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...CIGS
AND VSBY SHOULD IMPROVE BEHIND THE FRONT...AS SNOW SHOWERS TAPER
OFF...AND DRIER AIR WORKS IN.
SUNDAY SHOULD START OFF VFR/MVFR BEHIND THE FRONT...HOWEVER A LAKE
EFFECT SNOW BAND MAY CROSS ART AT SOME POINT DURING THE MORNING
HOURS.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS EARLY...IMPROVING
OVERNIGHT.
MONDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH AREAS OF SNOW.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SLIGHT CHANCE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SWING BY JUST NORTH OF LAKES ERIE AND
ONTARIO THIS EVENING...WITH A SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT CROSSING THE
LAKES LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE
THROUGH THIS EVENING...AS A 50 TO 55 KT FLOW ALOFT PARTIALLY MIXES
DOWN IN THE SW FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT. EXPECT WINDS TO 40 KTS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE WATERS THIS EVENING...WITHOUT HIS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING
LATER TONIGHT.
WHILE WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW GALES LATE TONIGHT...MODERATE TO
STRONG WESTERLIES WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SOLID
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
LOWER LAKES MONDAY WITH DIMINISHING WINDS.
OTHERWISE...A SERIES OF WEAK SYSTEMS WILL PASS THROUGH LATE NEXT
WILL...WITH WINDS GENERALLY ON THE LIGHT SIDE OUTSIDE OF A FEW
PERIODS WHERE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NYZ007-
008.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ001-002-010-
011-019-085.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LEZ020-040-041.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ042>045-
062>065.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL
SHORT TERM...WCH
LONG TERM...JJR/WCH
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
1234 PM EST SAT JAN 28 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE BY JUST NORTH OF THE REGION TODAY AND BRING
A ROUND OF WET SNOW WHICH WILL STRUGGLE TO ACCUMULATE AS TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING. IT WILL ALSO BECOME WINDY TODAY
AND TONIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES BY. SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL
DEVELOP EAST OF THE LAKES TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER FAST MOVING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGING A GENERAL LIGHT SNOWFALL TO THE AREA
SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY MORE LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST OF THE LAKES SUNDAY
NIGHT. A THIRD FAST MOVING SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER GENERAL LIGHT
SNOW TO THE REGION LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER
SIGNIFICANT WARM UP BY MIDWEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THROUGH NOON...RADAR SNOWS LIGHT SNOW ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK.
THIS IS THE LEADING EDGE OF A SECOND BAND WHICH SHOULD MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH ROUGHLY .10 OF QPF WITH THIS.
WHILE THE 12Z BUF SOUNDING SHOWED A WARM AND DRY LAYER BETWEEN 850
MB AND 600 MB...THIS HAS CERTAINLY SATURATED AND COOLED. WHILE
DOWNSLOPING SHOULD HELP WARM TEMPERATURES A BIT...NOW EXPECT MOST
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS SNOW EARLY AFTERNOON AS
WELL...THOUGH THE WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD LIMIT
ACCUMULATION. WITH TEMPERATURES A TAD WARMER...SNOW SHOULD
STRUGGLE TO ACCUMULATE ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER....HOWEVER A
SLUSHY INCH IS POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER
WHERE IT IS STILL BELOW FREEZING.
AS THE LOW PASSES TO THE NORTH...IT WILL BRING A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE REGION LATE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. IT WILL BECOME
QUITE WINDY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE SURFACE LOW PASSING ACROSS SOUTHERN
QUEBEC...AND HIGH PRESSURE PARKED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. BOTH THE
12Z NAM AND RUC SHOW A 50 TO 55 KT FLOW AT 2000 FEET BEHIND THIS
FRONT...AND GIVEN THE WELL ALIGNED SW POST-FRONTAL FLOW...EXPECT A
GOOD PART OF THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO THE SURFACE ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER.
THE RESULT WILL BE GUSTY WINDS...WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH LIKELY
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT. BECAUSE OF THIS POTENTIAL...WILL
ISSUE A BRIEF WIND ADVISORY FOR THE NIAGARA FRONTIER...AND WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. WHILE THESE STRONG GUSTS SHOULD ONLY BE FOR ABOUT A 3
HOUR PERIOD...EXPECT BUF-IAG TO BOTH REPORT PEAK GUSTS IN THE 50
TO 55 MPH RANGE.
SO THE UPDATES...ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR FAR WESTERN NEW YORK.
ALSO NUDGED UP THE TIMING OF THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO...BASED ON THE SLIGHTLY EARLIER TIMING OF THE FRONT.
FOLLOWING THE SYSTEM TONIGHT OUR ATTENTION TURNS TO LAKE EFFECT
POTENTIAL.
OFF LAKE ERIE...THE SETUP IS QUITE MARGINAL AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY QUICKLY NOSES NORTH WITH A RAPID LOSS OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE OVERNIGHT. THERE STILL SHOULD BE A BRIEF 2-4 HOUR
WINDOW DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHERE LAKE INDUCED
CAPES IMPROVE TO AROUND 8-10K FEET IN WSW FLOW. GUSTY WINDS AND A
LACK OF UPSTREAM CONNECTION SHOULD KEEP THIS RATHER DISORGANIZED...
WITH SNOW SHOWERS FOCUSING ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SKI COUNTRY.
EXPECT ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-2 INCHES ON THE HILLS THIS EVENING WITH A
DIMINISHING TREND OVERNIGHT AS THE COLUMN QUICKLY DRYS OUT. WHATEVER
REMAINS WILL DRIFT NORTH TOWARDS THE BUFFALO SOUTHTOWNS LATE
TONIGHT...BUT DONT EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN SCATTERED FLURRIES OR LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS TO BE LEFT.
OFF LAKE ONTARIO...CONDITIONS ARE MORE FAVORABLE WITH A WARMER
LAKE...A LITTLE DEEPER COLD AIR...AND PROSPECTS OF AN UPSTREAM
CONNECTION TO LAKE HURON. LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS ARE
FORECAST TO PEAK AROUND 15K FEET TONIGHT...AND MOST OF THE MESOSCALE
MODEL GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE CANADIAN REGIONAL GEM...WORKSTATION WRF
AND THE HIGH RES WRF-ARW DEVELOP AND UPSTREAM CONNECTION TO LAKE
HURON BANDING OVERNIGHT...WHICH ACTS TO ENHANCE BOTH MOISTURE AND
CONVERGENCE. ALL THREE OF THESE MODELS DEVELOP A PLUME OF MODERATE
QPF OVERNIGHT. THE MEAN BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW SETTLES TO ABOUT 260
OVERNIGHT...WHICH SHOULD FAVOR A BAND ACROSS SOUTHERN JEFFERSON AND
NORTH CENTRAL LEWIS COUNTY...ROUGHLY FROM ADAMS TO BARNES CORNERS
AND CROGHAN.
WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND...WE WILL HOIST A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY
FOR JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES STARTING EARLY THIS EVENING AND
RUNNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECT TOTAL ACCUMS OF 4-7 INCHES
WITHIN THE BAND MENTIONED ABOVE. IT WILL BE A CLOSE CALL IN FAR
NORTHERN OSWEGO COUNTY WITH SOME UPSLOPE SUPPORTING A FEW INCHES
NEAR REDFIELD...BUT THE MEAN 260 WIND DIRECTION SHOULD KEEP THE
ADVISORY AMOUNTS JUST NORTH OF THE COUNTY LINE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ON SUNDAY...YET ANOTHER POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PRESS EAST
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE
WAVE ALSO SLIDING EAST FROM LOWER MICHIGAN INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK BY
THE END OF THE DAY. IN ADVANCE OF THIS WAVE...THE COMBINATION OF
MODEST WARMING ALOFT AND AN INCREASINGLY SHEARED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL ACT TO DISRUPT ANY LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS NORTHEAST
OF THE LAKES DURING THE COURSE OF SUNDAY MORNING...WITH THIS PROCESS
TAKING PLACE FAIRLY EARLY IN THE DAY OFF LAKE ERIE...AND BY THE MID
TO LATE MORNING HOURS OFF LAKE ONTARIO. THEREAFTER...A SWATH OF MORE
GENERAL SYNOPTICALLY-DRIVEN SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE
AREA FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE
SURFACE WAVE. WITH BOTH THE NAM/GFS NOW BOTH INDICATING A FAVORABLE
SWATH OF LIFT AND MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING THE WAVE...HAVE BUMPED POPS
FOR THIS TIME FRAME UP TO THE HIGH LIKELY RANGE. AT THIS
POINT...MODEL QPF CONSENSUS SUPPORTS FAIRLY WIDESPREAD LIGHT
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS RANGING FROM AN INCH OR LESS IN MOST PLACES
DURING SUNDAY...TO AS MUCH AS 1-2 INCHES IN THE TYPICAL AREAS OF
TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT EAST OF THE LAKES.
SUNDAY EVENING...THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW WILL
QUICKLY EXIT TO THE EAST WITH ANY SYNOPTICALLY-DRIVEN SNOW SHOWERS
ALSO QUICKLY DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE EVENING...WITH
ANOTHER GENERAL INCH OR LESS OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE FOR SITES EAST
OF THE GENESEE VALLEY. AT THE SAME TIME HOWEVER...MESOSCALE
PROCESSES WILL AGAIN BECOME MORE DOMINANT AS A WESTERLY TO
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OF COLDER AIR OVERSPREADS THE LOWER LAKES
BEHIND THE DEPARTING WAVE...WITH 850 MB TEMPS FALLING FROM -8C TO
-11C AT THE START OF THE NIGHT TO ABOUT -14C/-15C BY MIDNIGHT. THIS
WILL TRIGGER THE REDEVELOPMENT OF SOME ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT
SNOWS TO THE EAST AND EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BOTH LAKES...WITH THE
ACTIVITY PEAKING BETWEEN THE EARLY TO MID EVENING AND EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS...THEN WEAKENING THEREAFTER AS STRONG LOW LEVEL
RIDGING AND INCREASING AMOUNTS OF DRIER AIR/SUBSIDENCE BUILD EAST
FROM THE CENTRAL LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. AT THIS JUNCTURE...FEEL THE
RELATIVELY SHORT-LIVED NATURE OF THE MOST FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WOULD
TEND TO RESULT IN POTENTIAL ADVISORY-TYPE ACCUMULATIONS EAST AND
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BOTH LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCES
FOR THIS COMING EAST-SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS WILL BE SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE OVERALL.
DURING MONDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT
EAST TO EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WHILE THE NEXT
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHES EAST INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. IN
BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...A WARM ADVECTION PATTERN WILL SET UP
ACROSS THE AREA...WHILE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK TO
SOUTHWESTERLY OR EVEN SOUTHERLY AND BECOME RATHER SHEARED. THIS WILL
RESULT IN THE LAKE SNOWS CONTINUING TO WEAKEN WHILE LIFTING BACK
NORTH TO THE BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN AREAS...WITH THIS WEAKENING MOST
PRONOUNCED EAST OF LAKE ERIE WHERE STRONGER WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
SUBSIDENCE WILL TAKE HOLD.
FINALLY...THE VERY LATE MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT PERIOD SHOULD FEATURE A
BROAD SWATH OF LIGHT WARM ADVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS LIFTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA...AS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES LOW PUSHES ITS
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT NORTHEAST INTO NEW YORK STATE. WILL THEREFORE
ADVERTISE SOME BROADBRUSH MID-RANGE CHANCE POPS DURING THIS
PERIOD...WHEN SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AREAWIDE.
AS FOR TEMPS...DESPITE THE ARRIVAL OF A COLDER CANADIAN AIRMASS LATE
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AND ITS SLOW DEPARTURE ON MONDAY...TEMPS
THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL STILL ONLY AVERAGE CLOSE TO NORMAL. IN
GENERAL...EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TO RANGE IN THE 30S ON SUNDAY AND IN THE
MID 20S TO AROUND 30 ON MONDAY...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY
BETWEEN FALLING BETWEEN THE MID TEENS AND MID 20S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE A RETURN TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE ZONAL
FLOW...WITH A SERIES OF LOW AMPLITUDE WAVES MOVING ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER AND KEEPING A GENERAL CHANCE OF PRECIP IN PLACE
RIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH MILDER PACIFIC AIR DOMINATING OUR
REGION UNDER THIS PATTERN...TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN REBOUND TO ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS...AND WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX AT
NIGHT...WITH RAIN THE MORE DOMINANT PRECIP TYPE DURING THE DAYTIME
PERIODS. AT THIS POINT...THE WARMEST TIME FRAME APPEARS TO BE
WEDNESDAY...WHEN TEMPS SHOULD AT LEAST SURGE WELL INTO THE 40S IN
THE WARM SECTOR OF THE SECOND AND STRONGEST WAVE IN THE SERIES OF
SURFACE LOWS.
LATE IN THE PERIOD...THE GFS/ECMWF BOTH SUGGEST A RETURN OF
LARGER-SCALE TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY AS
ANOTHER LARGE BUT ALSO PROGRESSIVE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN A RETURN TO SEASONABLY
COLDER TEMPS FOR WEEK`S END...ALONG WITH A GENERAL LOW CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS. AGAIN THOUGH...THE LACK OF ANY TRULY ARCTIC AIR WITHIN
THIS TROUGH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN TEMPS ONLY FALLING BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL LEVELS...AND LIKELY REMAINING WARM ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LAKE EFFECT SNOWS.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. AHEAD OF
THIS...WITH BE PERIODS OF SNOW...MIXED WITH RAIN AT TIMES. EXPECT
LOWEST CONDITIONS TO BE WEST AT BUF/IAG/JHW...WHERE PERIODS OF
LIFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF THE AREAS OF SNOW.
THE FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN 21Z AND
00Z...WHICH WILL CAUSE WINDS TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY. EXPECT
BUF/IAG TO BOTH EXPERIENCE GUSTS TO 40 KTS FROM THE POST-FRONTAL
SW FLOW...BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...CIGS
AND VSBY SHOULD IMPROVE BEHIND THE FRONT...AS SNOW SHOWERS TAPER
OFF...AND DRIER AIR WORKS IN.
SUNDAY SHOULD START OFF VFR/MVFR BEHIND THE FRONT...HOWEVER A LAKE
EFFECT SNOW BAND MAY CROSS ART AT SOME POINT DURING THE MORNING
HOURS.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...AREAS OF IFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY.
MONDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH LAKE EFFECT EAST OF THE LAKES ENDING
EARLY...THEN A GENERAL LIGHT SNOW LATE.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SLIGHT CHANCE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SWING BY JUST NORTH OF LAKES ERIE AND
ONTARIO TODAY WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW
AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL
ARRIVE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS 40-45 KNOT FLOW JUST OFF
THE DECK BEGINS TO MIX DOWN AS LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION STEEPENS
LAPSE RATES AND DESTABILIZES THE BOUNDARY LAYER...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE RELATIVELY WARMER LAKES. THIS WILL PRODUCE A LOW END GALE ON
BOTH LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO...WITH WINDS PEAKING THIS EVENING.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW GALES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT MODERATE
TO STRONG WESTERLIES WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE LOWER LAKES MONDAY WITH DIMINISHING WINDS.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM
EST SUNDAY FOR NYZ007-008.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ001-002-010-
011-019-085.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LEZ020-040-041.
GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
SUNDAY FOR LOZ042>045-062>065.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...APFFEL/JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
1203 PM EST SAT JAN 28 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE BY JUST NORTH OF THE REGION TODAY AND BRING
A ROUND OF WET SNOW WHICH WILL STRUGGLE TO ACCUMULATE AS TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING. IT WILL ALSO BECOME WINDY TODAY
AND TONIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES BY. SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL
DEVELOP EAST OF THE LAKES TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER FAST MOVING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGING A GENERAL LIGHT SNOWFALL TO THE AREA
SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY MORE LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST OF THE LAKES SUNDAY
NIGHT. A THIRD FAST MOVING SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER GENERAL LIGHT
SNOW TO THE REGION LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER
SIGNIFICANT WARM UP BY MIDWEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THROUGH NOON...RADAR SNOWS LIGHT SNOW ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK.
THIS IS THE LEADING EDGE OF A SECOND BAND WHICH SHOULD MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH ROUGHLY .10 OF QPF WITH THIS.
WHILE THE 12Z BUF SOUNDING SHOWED A WARM AND DRY LAYER BETWEEN 850
MB AND 600 MB...THIS HAS CERTAINLY SATURATED AND COOLED. WHILE
DOWNSLOPING SHOULD HELP WARM TEMPERATURES A BIT...NOW EXPECT MOST
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS SNOW EARLY AFTERNOON AS
WELL...THOUGH THE WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD LIMIT
ACCUMULATION. WITH TEMPERATURES A TAD WARMER...SNOW SHOULD
STRUGGLE TO ACCUMULATE ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER....HOWEVER A
SLUSHY INCH IS POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER
WHERE IT IS STILL BELOW FREEZING.
AS THE LOW PASSES TO THE NORTH...IT WILL BRING A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE REGION LATE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. IT WILL BECOME
QUITE WINDY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE SURFACE LOW PASSING ACROSS SOUTHERN
QUEBEC...AND HIGH PRESSURE PARKED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. BOTH THE
12Z NAM AND RUC SHOW A 50 TO 55 KT FLOW AT 2000 FEET BEHIND THIS
FRONT...AND GIVEN THE WELL ALIGNED SW POST-FRONTAL FLOW...EXPECT A
GOOD PART OF THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO THE SURFACE ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER.
THE RESULT WILL BE GUSTY WINDS...WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH LIKELY
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT. BECAUSE OF THIS POTENTIAL...WILL
ISSUE A BRIEF WIND ADVISORY FOR THE NIAGARA FRONTIER...AND WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. WHILE THESE STRONG GUSTS SHOULD ONLY BE FOR ABOUT A 3
HOUR PERIOD...EXPECT BUF-IAG TO BOTH REPORT PEAK GUSTS IN THE 50
TO 55 MPH RANGE.
SO THE UPDATES...ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR FAR WESTERN NEW YORK.
ALSO NUDGED UP THE TIMING OF THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO...BASED ON THE SLIGHTLY EARLIER TIMING OF THE FRONT.
FOLLOWING THE SYSTEM TONIGHT OUR ATTENTION TURNS TO LAKE EFFECT
POTENTIAL.
OFF LAKE ERIE...THE SETUP IS QUITE MARGINAL AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY QUICKLY NOSES NORTH WITH A RAPID LOSS OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE OVERNIGHT. THERE STILL SHOULD BE A BRIEF 2-4 HOUR
WINDOW DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHERE LAKE INDUCED
CAPES IMPROVE TO AROUND 8-10K FEET IN WSW FLOW. GUSTY WINDS AND A
LACK OF UPSTREAM CONNECTION SHOULD KEEP THIS RATHER DISORGANIZED...
WITH SNOW SHOWERS FOCUSING ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SKI COUNTRY.
EXPECT ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-2 INCHES ON THE HILLS THIS EVENING WITH A
DIMINISHING TREND OVERNIGHT AS THE COLUMN QUICKLY DRYS OUT. WHATEVER
REMAINS WILL DRIFT NORTH TOWARDS THE BUFFALO SOUTHTOWNS LATE
TONIGHT...BUT DONT EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN SCATTERED FLURRIES OR LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS TO BE LEFT.
OFF LAKE ONTARIO...CONDITIONS ARE MORE FAVORABLE WITH A WARMER
LAKE...A LITTLE DEEPER COLD AIR...AND PROSPECTS OF AN UPSTREAM
CONNECTION TO LAKE HURON. LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS ARE
FORECAST TO PEAK AROUND 15K FEET TONIGHT...AND MOST OF THE MESOSCALE
MODEL GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE CANADIAN REGIONAL GEM...WORKSTATION WRF
AND THE HIGH RES WRF-ARW DEVELOP AND UPSTREAM CONNECTION TO LAKE
HURON BANDING OVERNIGHT...WHICH ACTS TO ENHANCE BOTH MOISTURE AND
CONVERGENCE. ALL THREE OF THESE MODELS DEVELOP A PLUME OF MODERATE
QPF OVERNIGHT. THE MEAN BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW SETTLES TO ABOUT 260
OVERNIGHT...WHICH SHOULD FAVOR A BAND ACROSS SOUTHERN JEFFERSON AND
NORTH CENTRAL LEWIS COUNTY...ROUGHLY FROM ADAMS TO BARNES CORNERS
AND CROGHAN.
WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND...WE WILL HOIST A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY
FOR JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES STARTING EARLY THIS EVENING AND
RUNNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECT TOTAL ACCUMS OF 4-7 INCHES
WITHIN THE BAND MENTIONED ABOVE. IT WILL BE A CLOSE CALL IN FAR
NORTHERN OSWEGO COUNTY WITH SOME UPSLOPE SUPPORTING A FEW INCHES
NEAR REDFIELD...BUT THE MEAN 260 WIND DIRECTION SHOULD KEEP THE
ADVISORY AMOUNTS JUST NORTH OF THE COUNTY LINE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ON SUNDAY...YET ANOTHER POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PRESS EAST
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE
WAVE ALSO SLIDING EAST FROM LOWER MICHIGAN INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK BY
THE END OF THE DAY. IN ADVANCE OF THIS WAVE...THE COMBINATION OF
MODEST WARMING ALOFT AND AN INCREASINGLY SHEARED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL ACT TO DISRUPT ANY LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS NORTHEAST
OF THE LAKES DURING THE COURSE OF SUNDAY MORNING...WITH THIS PROCESS
TAKING PLACE FAIRLY EARLY IN THE DAY OFF LAKE ERIE...AND BY THE MID
TO LATE MORNING HOURS OFF LAKE ONTARIO. THEREAFTER...A SWATH OF MORE
GENERAL SYNOPTICALLY-DRIVEN SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE
AREA FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE
SURFACE WAVE. WITH BOTH THE NAM/GFS NOW BOTH INDICATING A FAVORABLE
SWATH OF LIFT AND MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING THE WAVE...HAVE BUMPED POPS
FOR THIS TIME FRAME UP TO THE HIGH LIKELY RANGE. AT THIS
POINT...MODEL QPF CONSENSUS SUPPORTS FAIRLY WIDESPREAD LIGHT
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS RANGING FROM AN INCH OR LESS IN MOST PLACES
DURING SUNDAY...TO AS MUCH AS 1-2 INCHES IN THE TYPICAL AREAS OF
TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT EAST OF THE LAKES.
SUNDAY EVENING...THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW WILL
QUICKLY EXIT TO THE EAST WITH ANY SYNOPTICALLY-DRIVEN SNOW SHOWERS
ALSO QUICKLY DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE EVENING...WITH
ANOTHER GENERAL INCH OR LESS OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE FOR SITES EAST
OF THE GENESEE VALLEY. AT THE SAME TIME HOWEVER...MESOSCALE
PROCESSES WILL AGAIN BECOME MORE DOMINANT AS A WESTERLY TO
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OF COLDER AIR OVERSPREADS THE LOWER LAKES
BEHIND THE DEPARTING WAVE...WITH 850 MB TEMPS FALLING FROM -8C TO
-11C AT THE START OF THE NIGHT TO ABOUT -14C/-15C BY MIDNIGHT. THIS
WILL TRIGGER THE REDEVELOPMENT OF SOME ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT
SNOWS TO THE EAST AND EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BOTH LAKES...WITH THE
ACTIVITY PEAKING BETWEEN THE EARLY TO MID EVENING AND EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS...THEN WEAKENING THEREAFTER AS STRONG LOW LEVEL
RIDGING AND INCREASING AMOUNTS OF DRIER AIR/SUBSIDENCE BUILD EAST
FROM THE CENTRAL LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. AT THIS JUNCTURE...FEEL THE
RELATIVELY SHORT-LIVED NATURE OF THE MOST FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WOULD
TEND TO RESULT IN POTENTIAL ADVISORY-TYPE ACCUMULATIONS EAST AND
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BOTH LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCES
FOR THIS COMING EAST-SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS WILL BE SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE OVERALL.
DURING MONDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT
EAST TO EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WHILE THE NEXT
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHES EAST INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. IN
BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...A WARM ADVECTION PATTERN WILL SET UP
ACROSS THE AREA...WHILE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK TO
SOUTHWESTERLY OR EVEN SOUTHERLY AND BECOME RATHER SHEARED. THIS WILL
RESULT IN THE LAKE SNOWS CONTINUING TO WEAKEN WHILE LIFTING BACK
NORTH TO THE BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN AREAS...WITH THIS WEAKENING MOST
PRONOUNCED EAST OF LAKE ERIE WHERE STRONGER WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
SUBSIDENCE WILL TAKE HOLD.
FINALLY...THE VERY LATE MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT PERIOD SHOULD FEATURE A
BROAD SWATH OF LIGHT WARM ADVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS LIFTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA...AS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES LOW PUSHES ITS
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT NORTHEAST INTO NEW YORK STATE. WILL THEREFORE
ADVERTISE SOME BROADBRUSH MID-RANGE CHANCE POPS DURING THIS
PERIOD...WHEN SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AREAWIDE.
AS FOR TEMPS...DESPITE THE ARRIVAL OF A COLDER CANADIAN AIRMASS LATE
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AND ITS SLOW DEPARTURE ON MONDAY...TEMPS
THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL STILL ONLY AVERAGE CLOSE TO NORMAL. IN
GENERAL...EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TO RANGE IN THE 30S ON SUNDAY AND IN THE
MID 20S TO AROUND 30 ON MONDAY...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY
BETWEEN FALLING BETWEEN THE MID TEENS AND MID 20S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE A RETURN TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE ZONAL
FLOW...WITH A SERIES OF LOW AMPLITUDE WAVES MOVING ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER AND KEEPING A GENERAL CHANCE OF PRECIP IN PLACE
RIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH MILDER PACIFIC AIR DOMINATING OUR
REGION UNDER THIS PATTERN...TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN REBOUND TO ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS...AND WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX AT
NIGHT...WITH RAIN THE MORE DOMINANT PRECIP TYPE DURING THE DAYTIME
PERIODS. AT THIS POINT...THE WARMEST TIME FRAME APPEARS TO BE
WEDNESDAY...WHEN TEMPS SHOULD AT LEAST SURGE WELL INTO THE 40S IN
THE WARM SECTOR OF THE SECOND AND STRONGEST WAVE IN THE SERIES OF
SURFACE LOWS.
LATE IN THE PERIOD...THE GFS/ECMWF BOTH SUGGEST A RETURN OF
LARGER-SCALE TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY AS
ANOTHER LARGE BUT ALSO PROGRESSIVE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN A RETURN TO SEASONABLY
COLDER TEMPS FOR WEEK`S END...ALONG WITH A GENERAL LOW CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS. AGAIN THOUGH...THE LACK OF ANY TRULY ARCTIC AIR WITHIN
THIS TROUGH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN TEMPS ONLY FALLING BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL LEVELS...AND LIKELY REMAINING WARM ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LAKE EFFECT SNOWS.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO INITIALLY START OFF MAINLY AS SNOW...AS
EVAPORATIONAL COOLING FROM DECENT SNOWFALL RATES WINS OUT OVER
DOWNSLOPING. AS THE INTITIAL BAND LIFTS NORTH...VSBY SHOULD COME UP
EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH SOME MIXING WITH RAIN POSSIBLE. VSBY/CIGS
WILL VARY WIDELY DURING THIS TIME...ANYWHERES FROM LIFR TO VFR IN
AND OUT OF AREAS OF SNOW.
A FRONT WILL CROSS FROM WEST TO EAST LATE AFTERNOON...SHIFTING
WINDS TO THE SW...AND CAUSING THEM TO INCREASE AS WELL. PRECIPITATION
WILL RAPIDLY END IN MOST AREAS FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH MVFR IMPROVING TO VFR. LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER EAST OF LAKE ERIE WITH AREAS OF
MVFR AND SPOTTY IFR THROUGH MID TO LATE EVENING. EXPECT THE SNOW
TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH A PLUME OF MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY
PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT. EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO A MORE SIGNIFICANT
BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL DEVELOP JUST SOUTH OF KART WITH
LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS. THIS MAY DRIFT UP TOWARDS KART LATE TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY MORNING.
IT WILL BECOME QUITE WINDY TODAY...ESPECIALLY DOWNWIND OF LAKES ERIE
AND ONTARIO WHERE GUSTS IN THE 30-40 KNOT RANGE WILL BE COMMON THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...AREAS OF IFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY.
MONDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH LAKE EFFECT EAST OF THE LAKES ENDING
EARLY...THEN A GENERAL LIGHT SNOW LATE.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SLIGHT CHANCE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SWING BY JUST NORTH OF LAKES ERIE AND
ONTARIO TODAY WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW
AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL
ARRIVE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS 40-45 KNOT FLOW JUST OFF
THE DECK BEGINS TO MIX DOWN AS LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION STEEPENS
LAPSE RATES AND DESTABILIZES THE BOUNDARY LAYER...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE RELATIVELY WARMER LAKES. THIS WILL PRODUCE A LOW END GALE ON
BOTH LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO...WITH WINDS PEAKING THIS EVENING.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW GALES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT MODERATE
TO STRONG WESTERLIES WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE LOWER LAKES MONDAY WITH DIMINISHING WINDS.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM
EST SUNDAY FOR NYZ007-008.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING FOR NYZ001-002-010-011-019-085.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LEZ020-040-041.
GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
SUNDAY FOR LOZ042>045-062>065.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...APFFEL/JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK
MARINE...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
150 PM CST SAT JAN 28 2012
.SYNOPSIS...MORE OF WHAT HAS COME TO BE THE NORM FOR THIS
WINTER...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH ONLY A COUPLE MODEST PCPN
EVENTS.
UPR PATTERN CURRENTLY FEATURES MODEST TROF OVER THE N-C CONUS...
BUT FLOW WL FLATTEN BACK TO ZONAL REGIME DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS. MED RANGE MODELS AGREEDED IN GRADUALLY BUILDING SOME RIDGING
OVER WRN CANADA DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE FCST PERIOD. BUT RIDGE
NEVER SEEMS TO GET STG/SHARP ENOUGH TO FORCE A DISTINCT DOWNSTREAM
TROF OVER ERN CONUS. SO WL PROBABLY CONT WITH GENERAL WLY FLOW AND
FAIRLY HIGH UPR HGTS.
OTHER THAN A COUPLE GLANCING SHOTS OF COLDER AIR BEHIND INDIVIDUAL
WX SYSTEMS...THE FCST AREA WL PRIMARILY BE DOMINATED BY PACIFIC
AIR. THAT WL RESULT IN ABV NORMAL TEMPS. PATTERN WL SUPPORT A FEW
PCPN PRODUCING SYSTEMS...BUT NO STG STORMS IN THE OFFING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
THE LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW THE STATE
OF WISCONSIN LOCATED BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OVER THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC
BORDER AND HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
CYCLONIC FLOW AND THERMAL TROUGHING BETWEEN THESE FEATURES ARE
CONTRIBUTING TO A WIDESPREAD STRATO-CU FIELD STRETCHING FROM
NORTHERN MINNESOTA TO LOWER MICHIGAN. PLENTY OF SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
WITHIN THE COLDER CLOUD TOPS OVER NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND THE
WESTERN UPPER PENINSULA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE IS
OBSERVED PUSHING INTO NORTH DAKOTA WHICH WILL HEAD FOR THE REGION
TONIGHT. PRECIP CHANCES WITH THIS FEATURE AND CLOUD COVER ARE THE
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TONIGHT...SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE DAKOTAS IS NOW EXPECTED TO TAKE
A SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK THAN PROJECTED YESTERDAY...FROM
ABOUT EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TO NORTHERN ILLINOIS. THOUGH THE WAVE
WILL STILL HAVE GOOD QG FORCING WITH IT...THE MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK
WILL SHIFT THE COMMA HEAD OF THE COMPACT WAVE OVER SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN RATHER THAN CENTRAL WISCONSIN. AS A RESULT...HAVE REMOVED
POPS FROM CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...CYCLONIC FLOW SUBTLY BROADENS OUT TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW THE LOW STRATO-CU TO RETREAT TO THE NORTH. PLENTY OF FLURRY
ACTIVITY UPSTREAM WILL FORCE ME TO KEEP A MENTION OVER N-C
WISCONSIN. LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE TOO WESTERLY HOWEVER TO HAVE MUCH OF
A LAKE INFLUENCE. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO NORTH TO THE MID TEENS SOUTHEAST.
SUNDAY...MID-LEVEL CLOUDS FROM THE SHORTWAVE WILL DEPART TO THE
SOUTHEAST EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WHICH MAY LEAVE A PERIOD OF MOSTLY
SUNNY CONDITIONS OVER CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO START
THE DAY. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL TURN BACK TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
DEPARTING WAVE. AS THIS OCCURS...COLD ADVECTION WILL RESUME WHICH
SHOULD LEAD TO ANOTHER SURGE SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW STRATO-CU LATE
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS THEN BACK AROUND TO THE WEST MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE RIDGE APPROACHES. SHOULD SEE THE
STRATO-CU BREAK UP SOME AS DRIER AIR PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST. HIGH
TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID TEENS NORTH TO THE LOWER 20S SOUTHEAST.
.LONG TERM...SUN NGT THROUGH NEXT SAT. TEMPS WL PROBABLY FALL OFF
FAIRLY QUICKLY EARLY SUN NGT WITH SFC RIDGE COMING ACRS THE
AREA...BUT THEN START TO RISE AS CLDS INCR. ISENT LIFT WL SWEEP
EWD ACRS THE AREA LATE AT NGT AND MON MORNING. MODELS SEEMED A BIT
SLOWER WITH THE PCPN...SO TWEAKED TIMING BACK A BIT. TOOK THE N UP
TO LIKELIES MON MORNING. WL PROBABLY GET A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW
ACRS THE N...AND MAYBE AN INCH OR SO IN THE S. PCPN WL PROBABLY
TAPER OFF TO FZDZ/DZ AS MIDDLE LEVEL MOISTURE GETS STRIPPED OFF TO
THE NE.
12Z RUN OF THE ECMWF BACKED OFF WITH PCPN CHCS TUE. THE OTHER
MODELS ALREADY WERE TAMER. MAY VERY WELL GET BY WITHOUT ANY PCPN
AS FCST AREA WL JUST BE IN THE WARM SECTOR OF WK CYCLONE TRACKING
ALONG THE U.S/CANADIAN BORDER. BUT DIDN/T WANT TO COMPLETELY PULL
PCPN WITH SYSTEM CROSSING THE RGN...SO SETTLED FOR TRENDING POPS
DOWN.
&&
.AVIATION...MVFR CIGS AND FLURRY ACTIVITY STRETCHING ALL THE WAY
BACK TO NORTHERN MINNESOTA AT MIDDAY. THESE MVFR CIGS WILL REACH
INTO THE FOX VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON BUT DOWNSLOPING WINDS SHOULD KEEP
FEW TO SCT CONDITIONS OVER FAR NE WISCONSIN. CIGS LOOK TO LIFT THIS
EVENING OVER CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE NOW LOOKS TO PASS TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. NOT MUCH
EXPECTED OTHER THAN AN INCREASE OF MID CLOUDS. ANOTHER SURGE OF
MVFR CLOUDS LOOKS TO OCCUR BEHIND THE DISTURBANCE SUNDAY MORNING.
MPC
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MPC/SKOWRONSKI