Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 01/26/12
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
915 PM MST MON JAN 23 2012
.SYNOPSIS...A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. EXPECT
COOLER TEMPERATURES TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY DRY CONDITIONS WITH A
WARMING TREND WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM ERN NEVADA SWWD INTO
SRN CALIFORNIA AT THIS TIME. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED CLOUDS
TO BE DECREASING FAIRLY QUICKLY DURING THE PAST 1-2 HOURS ACROSS SRN
CALIFORNIA. MEANWHILE...CLOUDY SKIES WERE NOTED ACROSS SE AZ WITH
COLDEST TOPS ACROSS ERN SECTIONS. ALSO...PRECIP ECHOES REMAINED WELL
NORTH AND WEST OF THIS FORECAST AREA AS OF 0405Z (905 PM MST).
HAVE NOTED THAT THE 24/00Z NAM MOS GUIDANCE POP FOR KTUS HAD
INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY VERSUS PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS FOR THE REST OF
TONIGHT. POP VALUE OF 27 FOR KTUS ENDING 12Z TUESDAY VERSUS SEVERAL
PRIOR SOLUTIONS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR TONIGHT. ALSO...24/00Z
RUC HRRR DEPICTED PRECIP TO DEVELOP FROM TUCSON VICINITY NWD ACROSS
SE PINAL COUNTY DURING THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. PRECIP PROGGED TO DEVELOP
AND ADVANCE EWD AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO NRN GREENLEE/GRAHAM/NRN COCHISE
COUNTIES. AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...PRECIP PROGGED TO BE CONFINED MOSTLY
EAST OF TUCSON.
THUS...AM INCLINED TO MAINTAIN THE INHERITED FORECAST FOR THE REST
OF TONIGHT. WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY-CATEGORY POPS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN NE OF TUCSON. MEANWHILE...CHANCE-CATEGORY POPS
ELSEWHERE EXCEPT NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WHERE A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED. PRECIP TO DECREASE FROM WEST-EAST TUESDAY.
STORM TOTAL QPF/S TO GENERALLY BE LESS THAN ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH AT
LOWER ELEVATIONS. SNOWFALL ACCUMS WILL BE HIGHEST ACROSS THE WHITE
MTNS. HOWEVER...SNOW ACCUMS WILL BE BELOW WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
CRITERIA.
PLEASE REFER TO THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION SECTION BELOW FOR ADDITIONAL
DETAIL.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...MODELS PROG THE BEST THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION
OCCURRING FROM 06Z-12Z TONIGHT. MODEL CROSS-SECTIONS SUPPORT THIS
AND SHOW THE BEST MOISTURE TO EXTEND FROM GENERALLY THE TUCSON AREA
AND NORTH WITH THE BEST LIFT TO OUR NORTH AND EAST. GIVEN THAT THIS
SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE...
AND SINCE THE SYSTEM WILL BE A RAPID MOVER WITH ONLY ABOUT A 6 TO 8
HOUR WINDOW FOR IT TO GIVE US ITS BEST...WE ARE NOT EXPECTING VERY
MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAIN OR SNOW...EVEN THOUGH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY HIGH. QPF AMOUNTS FOR DESERTS/VALLEYS
ONLY EXPECTED TO BE AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS...AND PERHAPS
UP TO A QUARTER TO A THIRD OF AN INCH IN LIQUID EQUIVALENT FOR THE
MOUNTAINS. WITH THAT SAID...MY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE THE GREATEST
OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN GREENLEE COUNTY AND STORM
TOTALS WILL BE BELOW WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CONDITIONS...SO NO
HEADLINES NEEDED WITH THIS SYSTEM.
THE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY MOVE TO OUR EAST BY LATE TUESDAY WITH
RIDGING BUILDING IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM THROUGH AT LEAST LATE
THURSDAY BEFORE ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DROP DOWN FROM
THE GREAT BASIN AND ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA ON FRIDAY. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY DRY WITH ANY ASSOCIATED MOISTURE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF MY FORECAST AREA. THE MODELS BEGIN TO SHOW
CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES AFTER FRIDAY...SO NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO
THE EXTENDED FORECAST WHICH IS BASICALLY DRY.
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 5 TO 7 DEGS BELOW NORMAL FOR
TUESDAY...THEN ONLY SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR WEDNESDAY. HIGHS
GENERALLY 7 TO 10 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND 4 TO
6 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOWS WILL
BE AROUND 3 TO 5 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY...THEN 2 TO
4 DEGS BELOW NORMAL FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING. NEAR NORMAL LOWS ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY MORNING...THEN 2 TO 4 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL
THEREAFTER.
&&
.AVIATION...CLOUD DECKS GENERALLY 5-9K FT AGL THRU 18Z TUESDAY THEN
CLOUDS DECREASING MONDAY AFTERNOON AND BECOMING FEW-SCT AT 6-10K FT
AGL 00Z-12Z WEDNESDAY. SCT -SHRA AND HIGHER TERRAIN -SHSN MAINLY
FROM KTUS NWD TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. PRECIP DECREASING FROM
WEST-EAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THEN PRECIP ENDING AREA-WIDE BY 00Z
WEDNESDAY. SURFACE WIND GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS THRU 12Z
WEDNESDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
$$
WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
1039 AM MST TUE JAN 24 2012
.UPDATE...RADAR SHOWING LIGHT SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE
PLAINS...WITH SOME DRYING ACROSS THE CHEYENNE RIDGE. IT APPEARS
THAT THERE IS A DECREASING TREND IN THE SNOW ACROSS LARIMER AND
WELD COUNTIES. SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AS
WELL...MAINLY ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. OVERALL...CURRENT
FORECAST LOOKS IN ORDER...WITH LOWERING POPS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. STILL NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION.
1-3 INCHES SEEMS OKAY FOR MOUNTAINS WITH LESS THAN AN INCH FOR
THE PLAINS. CLEARING SKIES STILL ON TRACK FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
WINDS LOOK MINIMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...HEAVIEST SNOW BAND MOVING ACROSS DIA AND APA...WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING. CHANCE FOR IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 19Z
AT KBJC AND KDEN...LASTING A BIT LONGER AT KAPA. LATEST MODELS
STILL SHOWING VFR CONDITIONS BY 21Z...LATEST TAFS WILL SHOW THIS
TREND...THOUGH CEILINGS OF AROUND 5000-6000 FEET TO PREVAIL INTO
THE EVENING.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 AM MST TUE JAN 24 2012/
SHORT TERM...ELONGATED UPPER AIR TROUGH JUST TO OUR WEST MAKES
SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. JET LEVEL
ENERGY AND QG DIVERGENCE SWINGING ACROSS WESTERN WYOMING ATTM AS
INDICATED BY THE BANDED CLOUD SHIELD AND PCPN FIELD IN THE AREA.
THIS FEATURE SHOULD PROVIDE THE LIFT NECESSARY FOR SHOWER
PRODUCTION LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON DOWN HERE. ALSO
WAITING FOR THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT JUST ABOUT READY TO DROP
SOUTH OF THE COLORADO/WYOMING LINE. LAPS AND RUC INDICATING 2-5 MB
3-HR PRESSURE RISES IN THE COLDER AIR ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL
WYOMING. NAM SHOWS THIS RISE COUPLET SHIFTING TO SERN WY BY MID-
MORNING AND DOWN ACROSS NERN CO ON GUSTY NLY SFC WINDS BY MIDDAY.
MODELS DIFFER ON THE AMOUNT OF SHOWER COVERAGE/QPF/SNOW AMOUNTS
WITH THIS SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED SYSTEM. MODELS GENERALLY AGREE
THAT THE BULK OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TODAY IN NERN COLORADO WILL
PROBABLY NOT OCCUR UNTIL AFTER THE 10-20KT N-NELY POST FRONTAL
WINDS KICK IN MID TO LATE MORNING. FURTHERMORE MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW A BAND OF 1-2 INCH SNOW AMOUNTS ACROSS ERN DOUGLAS...WRN
ELBERT...AND CNTRL ADAMS AND ARAPAHOE COUNTIES BY 21Z TODAY. EVEN
THOUGH BNDRY LAYER MOISTURE DOESN/T LOOK ALL THAT GREAT BASED ON
MODEL SOUNDINGS...THE LIFT GENERATED BY THE PASSING TROUGH AND
UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD BE ADEQUATE TO GENERATE AMOUNTS SOMEWHERE
WITHIN THIS RANGE DOWN THERE. IN THE DENVER METRO AREA AND POINTS
NORTH...ANY SNOW AMOUNTS TODAY SHOULD BE MINIMAL...WHILE THE EAST
FACE OF THE FRONT RANGE COULD PICK UP AN INCH OR TWO WITH LATE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON CONVECTION. IN THE HIGH COUNTRY...SET
UP DOES NOT LOOK ALL THAT FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL. SWLY
700-500MB FLOW QUICKLY TURNS N-NWLY WITH PASSAGE OF THE MID-LEVEL
TROUGH LATE THIS MORNING...WHICH IS NOT ALL THAT GREAT FOR
OROGRAPHIC SNOWFALL. SPEEDS ALSO NOT THAT STRONG WITH THIS SYSTEM.
700-500MB TROUGH AXIS AND BEST QG ASCENT PROGGED TO PASS OVER THE
NORTHEAST PLAINS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND OUT OF THE STATE BY
EVENING..FOLLOWING BY STRONG DRYING WHICH SHOULD QUICKLY CLEAR
SKIES FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. CLEARING OVERNIGHT WILL ALLOW
FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN THE COLDEST
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES OF THE WEEK.
LONG TERM...FOR WEDNESDAY...A DRY DAY WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES BEHIND TUESDAY`S DISTURBANCE AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ALOFT INTO COLORADO. THE FLOW ALOFT THEN BECOMES A FAST AND
ZONAL NORTHWEST FLOW FOR THURSDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THERE IS A FAST MOVING WAVE WHICH TRAVERSES THE STATE ON
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. COLDER TEMPERATURES AND LOOKS LIKE A
FAIRLY HEALTHY COLD FRONT WHICH PUSHES SOUTH EARLY IN THE DAY.
BOTH GFS/NAM INDICATE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW BUT IT
IS A FAST MOVING FEATURE SO SOMETIMES MOISTURE AND WINDS MAY BE
SUSPECT. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE ONGOING FORECAST WITH A GOOD BET
OF COLDER TEMPERATURES AND CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
PLAINS. DRIER AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND WITH CONTINUED DRY...NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT.
AVIATION...
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...D-L
LONG TERM....ENTREKIN
AVIATION...D-L
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
614 AM MST TUE JAN 24 2012
.UPDATE...
&&
.SHORT TERM...NO CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
.AVIATION...PRECIPITATION NOW BEGINNING TO FORM UP JUST SOUTH
OF THE CHEYENNE RIDGE IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH
THROUGH LARIMER...WELD AND LOGAN COUNTIES. AT ITS PRESENT SPEND
SHOULD SEE THE FRONT INTO THE DENVER AREA BY 14Z OR SO. WILL SEE
NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10-15 MPH FOLLOWING ITS A PASSAGE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. CLOUD CEILINGS ALSO COMING DOWN WITH
MVFR CIGS IN THE DENVER AREA IN THE NEXT ONE-TWO HOURS. BY MID TO
LATE MORNING COULD SEE CIGS LOWERING TO BELOW 3000 FT AGL AND
POSSIBLY BELOW 2000 FT ALG WITH PASSING SNOW SHOWERS. NOT
EXPECTING MORE THAN A HALF INCH OF SNOW WITH THE HEAVIER SHOWERS
LATER THIS MORNING. DURING THE AFTERNOON SHOULD SEE GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT IN CEILING HEIGHTS AND A REDUCTION IN SHOWER ACTIVITY
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH. BY THE
EVENING EXPECT TO SEE NORTHWEST WINDS USHERING IN DRIER AIR AND
A CONTINUATION OF THE CLEARING BEGUN LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
SHOULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS IN THE DENVER AREA NOT TOO LONG AFTER
6 PM TODAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 AM MST TUE JAN 24 2012/
SHORT TERM...ELONGATED UPPER AIR TROUGH JUST TO OUR WEST MAKES
SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. JET LEVEL
ENERGY AND QG DIVERGENCE SWINGING ACROSS WESTERN WYOMING ATTM AS
INDICATED BY THE BANDED CLOUD SHIELD AND PCPN FIELD IN THE AREA.
THIS FEATURE SHOULD PROVIDE THE LIFT NECESSARY FOR SHOWER
PRODUCTION LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON DOWN HERE. ALSO
WAITING FOR THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT JUST ABOUT READY TO DROP
SOUTH OF THE COLORADO/WYOMING LINE. LAPS AND RUC INDICATING 2-5 MB
3-HR PRESSURE RISES IN THE COLDER AIR ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL
WYOMING. NAM SHOWS THIS RISE COUPLET SHIFTING TO SERN WY BY MID-
MORNING AND DOWN ACROSS NERN CO ON GUSTY NLY SFC WINDS BY MIDDAY.
MODELS DIFFER ON THE AMOUNT OF SHOWER COVERAGE/QPF/SNOW AMOUNTS
WITH THIS SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED SYSTEM. MODELS GENERALLY AGREE
THAT THE BULK OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TODAY IN NERN COLORADO WILL
PROBABLY NOT OCCUR UNTIL AFTER THE 10-20KT N-NELY POST FRONTAL
WINDS KICK IN MID TO LATE MORNING. FURTHERMORE MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW A BAND OF 1-2 INCH SNOW AMOUNTS ACROSS ERN DOUGLAS...WRN
ELBERT...AND CNTRL ADAMS AND ARAPAHOE COUNTIES BY 21Z TODAY. EVEN
THOUGH BNDRY LAYER MOISTURE DOESN/T LOOK ALL THAT GREAT BASED ON
MODEL SOUNDINGS...THE LIFT GENERATED BY THE PASSING TROUGH AND
UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD BE ADEQUATE TO GENERATE AMOUNTS SOMEWHERE
WITHIN THIS RANGE DOWN THERE. IN THE DENVER METRO AREA AND POINTS
NORTH...ANY SNOW AMOUNTS TODAY SHOULD BE MINIMAL...WHILE THE EAST
FACE OF THE FRONT RANGE COULD PICK UP AN INCH OR TWO WITH LATE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON CONVECTION. IN THE HIGH COUNTRY...SET
UP DOES NOT LOOK ALL THAT FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL. SWLY
700-500MB FLOW QUICKLY TURNS N-NWLY WITH PASSAGE OF THE MID-LEVEL
TROUGH LATE THIS MORNING...WHICH IS NOT ALL THAT GREAT FOR
OROGRAPHIC SNOWFALL. SPEEDS ALSO NOT THAT STRONG WITH THIS SYSTEM.
700-500MB TROUGH AXIS AND BEST QG ASCENT PROGGED TO PASS OVER THE
NORTHEAST PLAINS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND OUT OF THE STATE BY
EVENING..FOLLOWING BY STRONG DRYING WHICH SHOULD QUICKLY CLEAR
SKIES FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. CLEARING OVERNIGHT WILL ALLOW
FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN THE COLDEST
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES OF THE WEEK.
LONG TERM...FOR WEDNESDAY...A DRY DAY WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES BEHIND TUESDAY`S DISTURBANCE AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ALOFT INTO COLORADO. THE FLOW ALOFT THEN BECOMES A FAST AND
ZONAL NORTHWEST FLOW FOR THURSDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THERE IS A FAST MOVING WAVE WHICH TRAVERSES THE STATE ON
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. COLDER TEMPERATURES AND LOOKS LIKE A
FAIRLY HEALTHY COLD FRONT WHICH PUSHES SOUTH EARLY IN THE DAY.
BOTH GFS/NAM INDICATE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW BUT IT
IS A FAST MOVING FEATURE SO SOMETIMES MOISTURE AND WINDS MAY BE
SUSPECT. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE ONGOING FORECAST WITH A GOOD BET
OF COLDER TEMPERATURES AND CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
PLAINS. DRIER AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND WITH CONTINUED DRY...NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT.
AVIATION...
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM....ENTREKIN
AVIATION...BAKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
417 AM MST TUE JAN 24 2012
.SHORT TERM...ELONGATED UPPER AIR TROUGH JUST TO OUR WEST MAKES
SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. JET LEVEL
ENERGY AND QG DIVERGENCE SWINGING ACROSS WESTERN WYOMING ATTM AS
INDICATED BY THE BANDED CLOUD SHIELD AND PCPN FIELD IN THE AREA.
THIS FEATURE SHOULD PROVIDE THE LIFT NECESSARY FOR SHOWER
PRODUCTION LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON DOWN HERE. ALSO
WAITING FOR THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT JUST ABOUT READY TO DROP
SOUTH OF THE COLORADO/WYOMING LINE. LAPS AND RUC INDICATING 2-5 MB
3-HR PRESSURE RISES IN THE COLDER AIR ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL
WYOMING. NAM SHOWS THIS RISE COUPLET SHIFTING TO SERN WY BY MID-
MORNING AND DOWN ACROSS NERN CO ON GUSTY NLY SFC WINDS BY MIDDAY.
MODELS DIFFER ON THE AMOUNT OF SHOWER COVERAGE/QPF/SNOW AMOUNTS
WITH THIS SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED SYSTEM. MODELS GENERALLY AGREE
THAT THE BULK OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TODAY IN NERN COLORADO WILL
PROBABLY NOT OCCUR UNTIL AFTER THE 10-20KT N-NELY POST FRONTAL
WINDS KICK IN MID TO LATE MORNING. FURTHERMORE MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW A BAND OF 1-2 INCH SNOW AMOUNTS ACROSS ERN DOUGLAS...WRN
ELBERT...AND CNTRL ADAMS AND ARAPAHOE COUNTIES BY 21Z TODAY. EVEN
THOUGH BNDRY LAYER MOISTURE DOESN/T LOOK ALL THAT GREAT BASED ON
MODEL SOUNDINGS...THE LIFT GENERATED BY THE PASSING TROUGH AND
UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD BE ADEQUATE TO GENERATE AMOUNTS SOMEWHERE
WITHIN THIS RANGE DOWN THERE. IN THE DENVER METRO AREA AND POINTS
NORTH...ANY SNOW AMOUNTS TODAY SHOULD BE MINIMAL...WHILE THE EAST
FACE OF THE FRONT RANGE COULD PICK UP AN INCH OR TWO WITH LATE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON CONVECTION. IN THE HIGH COUNTRY...SET
UP DOES NOT LOOK ALL THAT FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL. SWLY
700-500MB FLOW QUICKLY TURNS N-NWLY WITH PASSAGE OF THE MID-LEVEL
TROUGH LATE THIS MORNING...WHICH IS NOT ALL THAT GREAT FOR
OROGRAPHIC SNOWFALL. SPEEDS ALSO NOT THAT STRONG WITH THIS SYSTEM.
700-500MB TROUGH AXIS AND BEST QG ASCENT PROGGED TO PASS OVER THE
NORTHEAST PLAINS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND OUT OF THE STATE BY
EVENING..FOLLOWING BY STRONG DRYING WHICH SHOULD QUICKLY CLEAR
SKIES FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. CLEARING OVERNIGHT WILL ALLOW
FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN THE COLDEST
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES OF THE WEEK.
.LONG TERM...FOR WEDNESDAY...A DRY DAY WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES BEHIND TUESDAY`S DISTURBANCE AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ALOFT INTO COLORADO. THE FLOW ALOFT THEN BECOMES A FAST AND
ZONAL NORTHWEST FLOW FOR THURSDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THERE IS A FAST MOVING WAVE WHICH TRAVERSES THE STATE ON
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. COLDER TEMPERATURES AND LOOKS LIKE A
FAIRLY HEALTHY COLD FRONT WHICH PUSHES SOUTH EARLY IN THE DAY.
BOTH GFS/NAM INDICATE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW BUT IT
IS A FAST MOVING FEATURE SO SOMETIMES MOISTURE AND WINDS MAY BE
SUSPECT. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE ONGOING FORECAST WITH A GOOD BET
OF COLDER TEMPERATURES AND CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
PLAINS. DRIER AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND WITH CONTINUED DRY...NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT.
&&
.AVIATION...
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM....ENTREKIN
AVIATION...BAKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1049 PM MST MON JAN 23 2012
.AVIATION...
EVENING SATELLITE LOOP AND 00Z MODELS ALL SUGGEST INCOMING UPPER
SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WEAK AND FAIRLY FAR TO THE SOUTH AS IT MOVES BY
SOUTHERN COLORADO OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY. STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR
A FEW HOURS OF -SN AND MVFR CIGS AT KALS FROM 10Z-16Z...WITH
SURROUNDING MOUNTAINS OBSCURED THROUGH 21Z. FOR KPUB AND
KCOS...BRIEF WINDOW FOR A FEW -SHSN IS CENTERED AROUND 18Z
TUE...WITH FAIRLY QUICK END TO PRECIP CHANCES BY 00Z. NOW APPEARS
ANY SNOW OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS WILL BE VERY SPOTTY AND
LIGHT...THOUGH HIGHER TERRAIN WILL BE OCCASIONALLY OBSCURED 10Z
THROUGH 23Z. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ALL AREAS AFTER 23Z AS SYSTEM
MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM MST MON JAN 23 2012/
SHORT TERM...
(TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC80 DATA SHOW THE APPROACHING
STORM SYSTEM OVER CENTRAL NEVADA AT THIS TIME. THE 12Z NAM12 AND
GFS FORECAST THE LOW TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS AREA INTO
SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO BY 18Z TUESDAY.
12Z NAM12 AND GFS AND THE 17Z HRRR SHOW SNOW BEGINNING IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 01Z AND 02Z TUESDAY. I DECIDED TO
BLEND THE 12Z NAM12 AND GFS (THE NAM12 BEING THE HEAVIEST ON QPF AND
THE GFS BEING THE LIGHTEST)...AND HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS BEGINNING AT 01Z. CURRENT TOTAL
SNOW GRID SHOWS FIVE TO SEVEN INCHES OF SNOW ON THE HIGHEST PEAKS OF
THE SAN JUANS. WITH THE UPPER LOW PASSING WELL TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST UPLOPE FLOW ON THE WEAK SIDE...SNOW TOTALS ARE ON THE LOW
SIDE OF ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT FEEL AT LEAST THE PEAKS WILL REACH
ADVISORY CRITERIA.
THE SANGRES...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHERN PEAKS...WILL ALSO RECEIVE LIGHT
TO MODERATE SNOWS (3-5 INCHES)...BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA DURING THIS EVENT...AS WILL THE EASTERN SAWATCH AND WESTERN
MOSQUITOES RANGES. THE SAN LUIS VALLEY WILL ONLY LIKELY SEE A DUSTING
OF SNOW.
THE INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR AND EASTERN PLAINS WILL LIKELY NOT SEE
ANY APPRECIABLE PRECIPITATION FROM THIS SYSTEM WITH ONLY 50 POPS IN
THE GRIDS FOR COS AND PUB AND ISOLATED POPS FOR THE EASTERN PLAINS.
PRECIPITATION WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AFTER 18Z
AS THE THEN CLOSED 500MB LOW MOVES WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA.
LONG TERM...
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
TUESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY BEHIND PASSING UPPER
TROUGH BECOMES MORE WESTERLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE STATE. GENERALLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION
ONGOING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND FAR SE PLAINS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON LOOKS TO DIMINISH TUESDAY EVENING WITH SKIES CLEARING FROM
WEST TO EAST TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE REMAINS SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ON
NORTHERN EXTENT OF DEFORMATION BAND PRECIP SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH
UPPER LOW MOVING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...WITH THE LATEST
GFS AND ECMWF KEEPING ANY PRECIPITATION WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
AREA. THE NAM CONTINUES TO DEVELOP PRECIP ACROSS THE WESTERN TX/OK
PANHANDLE WHICH SLIDES NORTH AND EAST INTO SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO
TUESDAY NIGHT. AT ANY RATE...HAVE KEPT SLIGHT POPS ACROSS MAINLY
SOUTHERN BACA COUNTY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...WHICH ALSO BLENDS BETTER
WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES. DRY WEATHER WITH ABOVE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES IS THEN EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY UNDER THE BUILDING RIDGE. THURSDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK...THOUGH TEMPERATURES MAY BE TEMPERED BY
INCREASING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.
THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
OF WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL DEVELOPING ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AND
IMMEDIATE ADJACENT PLAINS THROUGH THIS PERIOD...AS A SHORT WAVE
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MOVES ACROSS THE
ROCKIES. QUICK MOVEMENT OF SYSTEM LIMITS SNOW DURATION...THOUGH SHOULD
AT LEAST SEE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTS
THROUGH THE EASTERN MTS...ALONG WITH THE PALMER DIVIDE AND RATON
MESA...AS NORTH TO NORTHEAST SFC-H7 FLOW DEVELOPS THROUGH THE DAY.
SYSTEM SENDS A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS FRIDAY LIKELY EARLY IN THE
MORNING WITH STEADY AND FALLING TEMPERATURES INTO THE AFTERNOON.
SATURDAY-MONDAY...MODERATE WEST TO NORTHWEST CONTINUES ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH LATEST MODELS
STILL INDICATING DIFFERENCES IN HARD TIME SHORT WAVES TRANSLATING
THROUGH THE FLOW. WITH TIMING DIFFERENCES...HAVE KEPT CURRENT
ISOLATED POPS ACROSS MAINLY THE CENTRAL MTS THROUGH THE PERIOD ALONG
WITH AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. -MW
AVIATION...
LOWERING CIGS EXPECTED TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS AND SAN LUIS VALLEY WITH CIGS DROPPING INTO THE MVFR
CATEGORY AFTER 09Z AT KALS. -SHSN WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM
09Z-17Z...WITH ANY ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER AN
INCH.
FOR KCOS AND KPUB...VFR CIGS WILL SPREAD INTO BOTH TAF SITES LATE
TONIGHT WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS 10-20 KTS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD
FRONT SPREADING INTO KCOS AND KPUB BETWEEN 15-17Z TUES. CIGS WILL
CONTINUE TO LOWER FOR BOTH TAF SITES DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON...DROPPING INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY. MTN OBSCURATIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE SE MTS BY AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE FOR LOCATIONS NEAR THE MTS. DUE TO LOW PROBABILITY
OF -SHSN AFFECTING THE TAF SITES...WILL KEEP VCSH IN KCOS AND KPUB
TAFS FOR NOW.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ068.
&&
$$
10/77
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TALLAHASSEE FL
345 PM EST Mon Jan 23 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
20Z water vapor and H4 RUC analysis shows a split flow pattern into
the western CONUS. Northern stream flow arrives over the Pacific
NW/British Columbia coasts, with one surge of energy pushing toward
the northern Plains, and another more potent trough/shortwave
crossing over the four-corners region. It will be this energy that
will evolve eastward through the mid-week period and bring our next
potential for significant weather toward Thursday night and Friday.
For now, mid/upper level flow has become zonal in nature along the
northern gulf coast. 12Z KTLH sounding shows a generally moist
profile through the trop with nearly saturated conditions below
800mb. A measured PW value of almost 1.5" is well above normal for
late January (approx 185% of climo).
At the surface, weak remnant cold front is essentially stalled
across the CWA, with a an afternoon position from near KVLD to KTLH
and then extending off the Panhandle coast to the MS delta, where
the front is beginning to retreat northward as a warm front.
Regional radars show the expected development of sct showers/storms
along the stalled frontal boundary has commenced. Convective
development off the FL panhandle coast resulted in an area of cirrus
which expanded over the FL Big Bend zones earlier in the afternoon.
This cirrus shield slowed the diurnal heating process and has likely
cut back on the overall coverage of convection between Panama City,
Tallahassee, and Valdosta. Even still a few additional convective
elements are likely to fire along this boundary into the early
evening.
&&
.NEAR TERM (tonight)...
Any convective enhancement that was seen during the later afternoon
hours should dissipate rapidly this evening with the loss of diurnal
heating and low level focus. Remnant front will essential wash out
the remainder of the night allowing a more uniform easterly low
level flow to develop across the region. Depending on just how
quickly the gradient tightens...there will be the potential for
areas of fog to develop after midnight...primarily from the Big Bend
zones up into our southern tier of Georgia zones. Plenty of low
level moisture will keep our string of warm nights going. Low temps
by sunrise Wednesday will only fall into the lower to middle 50s
inland and upper 50s to near 60 along the immediate coast.
&&
.SHORT TERM (Wednesday through Thursday night)...
Short lived deep layer ridging will build over the extreme
southeastern part of the country on Wednesday, providing us with hot
and somewhat dry conditions. Temperatures will climb into the upper
70s for most inland locations. Along the coast, lower to middle 70s
are likely. There is the slight chance for a brief shower along the
eastern Apalachee Bay coastline late in the afternoon as the
easterly flow on the southern edge of the surface ridge collides
with a very weak sea-breeze circulation.
Wednesday night, temperatures will be moderated by light
southeasterly flow. Lows are expected to fall into the middle and
upper 50s region-wide. No chance for rain.
Thursday and beyond gets a bit tricky as guidance is having a hard
time lining up with respect to the strength and timing of our next
system. All indications so far favor the slightly faster solutions,
bringing showers and thunderstorms into our extreme western Florida
and Alabama counties late Thursday afternoon. Expect the majority of
the thunderstorm activity to arrive Thursday night and exit our far
eastern Florida and Georgia counties sometime on Friday.
The storm prediction center has outlooked portions of our forecast
area in a "slight risk" for severe weather with the approaching
weather system. Very strong winds aloft would favor the development
of severe storms, beginning late Thursday night, into the first part
of Friday. Some uncertainty exists due to the spread of solutions
offered by guidance, as well as well agreed upon limited
instability. Although the amount of instability forecast is low, the
dynamics are impressive, and this is certainly a threat that will
need to be monitored over the next couple of days. Confidence will
improve as the system evolves and guidance comes into better
agreement on the timing and strength.
&&
.LONG TERM (Friday night through next Tuesday)...
In the wake of the passing system, high pressure will build in and
offer a period of rather dry conditions. Also, temperatures will
return to more seasonable levels, in the upper 60s during the day,
and the 30s overnight.
&&
.MARINE...
Winds and seas will remain below headline criteria through tomorrow
night. On Thursday, an approaching surface low could increase winds
and seas to cautionary levels. Thursday night, a strong cold front
passing across the region will increase winds to advisory levels.
Winds and seas will subside below headline criteria by Friday
evening as high pressure quickly builds in over our coastal and
offshore waters.
&&
.AVIATION...
A weak cold front is laid out across the region from ECP to about
midway between ABY and VLD. Behind the front at DHN and ABY, expect
VFR conditions through 18 UTC Wed, with the possibility of MVFR
conditions in the early morning at DHN. The forecast this afternoon
was a little trickier ahead of and along the front, with low level
mixing ahead of the front eroding cloud bases and scattered showers
along the front. Overnight, fog/lower cigs are expected to develop
along and south of the I-10 corridor. These restrictions will likely
lower to IFR for time after midnight through mid morning Wednesday.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Increasing onshore flow will keep relative humidity values above
critical level through the end of the work week. The next front
should come on Friday wit showers and thunderstorms. A cooler, drier
airmass will arrive behind the front over the weekend.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 55 76 56 75 57 / 20 0 0 20 70
Panama City 59 73 60 73 58 / 30 0 0 50 70
Dothan 53 76 58 76 55 / 10 0 0 40 70
Albany 52 77 56 76 56 / 10 0 0 10 70
Valdosta 54 77 55 76 58 / 20 0 0 10 70
Cross City 54 78 53 77 60 / 10 20 10 10 60
Apalachicola 58 68 58 69 59 / 20 0 0 30 70
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
GA...None.
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
Near Term/Aviation/Fire Wx...Mroczka/Moore
Short Term/Long Term/Marine...Harrigan
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TALLAHASSEE FL
1120 AM EST Tue Jan 24 2012
.UPDATE...
15Z water vapor and H4 RUC analysis shows a developing split flow
pattern into the western CONUS. Northern stream flow arrives over
the Pacific NW/British Columbia coasts, with one surge of energy
pushing toward the northern Plains, and another more potent
trough/shortwave crossing over the four-corners region. It will be
this energy that will evolve eastward through the mid-week period
and bring our next significant weather toward Thursday night and
Friday. For now, mid/upper level flow has become zonal in nature
along the northern gulf coast. 12Z KTLH sounding shows a generally
moist profile through the trop with nearly saturated conditions
below 800mb. A measured PW value of almost 1.5" is well above normal
for late January (approx 185% of climo).
At the surface, weak remnant cold front is essentially stalled
across the CWA, with a late morning position from near KVLD to KTLH
and then extending off the Panhandle coast to the MS delta.
Most of the earlier shower activity across the Big Bend/SW GA
associated with the surface front has dissipated. At the same time,
seeing a re-development of convection over the coastal waters to the
south of the FL Panhandle. The front is beginning to creep back
north as a warm front over this area, and resulting low level
upglide is the forcing mechanism for this activity. For the most
part, expecting the bulk of this offshore activity to remain just
offshore or eventually build toward the western Panhandle, however
current PoPs allow for at least sct development northward toward
Panama City/Destin during the afternoon hours. Will continue to
monitor the situation in case additional updates are needed before
the afternoon package issuance.
The other forecast concern will be dealing with any potential
re-development of afternoon convection along the front back into the
western Big Bend zones, and SW/SC GA. As breaks in the clouds
continue to develop, will see our temps over land area adjacent to
Apalachee Bay warm up well into the 70s. With water temps in the
upper 50s to lower 60s over the Bay, these temps along with a weak
gradient will likely force a feeble sea-breeze circulation by
mid-afternoon. Is this January? Many of the hi-res guidance members
are indeed showing this sea-breeze enhancement. They also show
convective re-development as the sea-breeze enhances low level focus
along the synoptic front. Have highlighted an elevated (40%) PoP
field in the grids from Bay/Gulf counties toward Tallahassee and
Valdosta to account for this potential. Any convective enhancement
that is seen should dissipate rapidly this evening with the loss of
diurnal heating and low level focus.
&&
.MARINE...Winds and seas will remain below headline criteria through
mid week. There should be a gradual increase in SE winds on Wed as a
low develops along the Texas Gulf coast. On Thursday, this
strengthening low pressure and trailing front will approach from the
west and increase winds and seas to advisory levels. As the low
lifts northeast and front departs further from area, winds and seas
will subside to below headline criteria by Friday evening. Another
increase to headline criteria is possible over the weekend as
surface high pressure approaches our Gulf waters.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 75 55 75 56 74 / 40 20 10 10 30
Panama City 71 60 73 60 67 / 40 30 20 10 50
Dothan 71 54 76 58 73 / 20 30 10 20 60
Albany 71 51 76 56 75 / 10 10 10 10 30
Valdosta 74 54 77 55 76 / 30 10 10 0 30
Cross City 78 54 77 54 76 / 10 10 10 0 20
Apalachicola 70 59 69 58 68 / 30 10 10 10 40
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
GA...None.
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
MROCZKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1100 PM EST WED JAN 25 2012
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG A WARM FRONT INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. A STRONGER UPPER LOW WILL THEN PASS THROUGH
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON THURSDAY ACCOMPANIED BY A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE ALOFT. AS THIS UPPER SYSTEM DEPARTS ON THURSDAY
NIGHT...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF INDIANA WILL
PUSH EAST AS A COLD FRONT. AFTERWARD DRY...NORTHWEST FLOW OF
CANADIAN AIR WILL BEGIN ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN TO THE STATE ON FRIDAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER BACK TO THE
STATE FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT SYSTEM TO
IMPACT THE REGION WILL ARRIVE NEXT TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...
SNOW HAS PRETTY WELL ENDED ACROSS ALL OF OUR FORECAST AREA. WILL
KEEP A CHANCE OF SNOW FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. OTHERWISE...ONLY
REMAINING IMPACTS WILL BE FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET. BOTH RUC AND LAV
INDICATE THERE COULD BE A DEGREE OR TWO RISE OVER CENTRAL SECTIONS
OVERNIGHT WHILE FAR NORTHERN SECTIONS REMAIN WITH NEAR STEADY
TEMPERATURES. FREEZING HAS NOT BEEN REPORTED AT KHUF LAST FEW HOURS
AND WILL DROP VIGO AND CLAY COUNTY FROM WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
OTHERWISE...WILL CONTINUE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AS IS FOR THE REST
OF TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF
THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE WATCH MAY BE CANCELLED BEFORE 10 AM AS
TEMPERATURES MAY RISE A DEGREE OR TWO BY MORNING AND ENDING THE
THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN THERE SOONER.
OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS WILL TAKE OUT ALL MENTION OF FREEZING RAIN AS
TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN INTO THE MID 30S. THERE COULD BE PERIOD OF
SLEET AS FAR SOUTH AS BLOOMINGTON FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT PERIODS OF RAIN FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT.
MAIN AREA OF HEAVIER RAIN IS STILL OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AND I DO NOT SEE ANY QPF PROBLEMS FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT. THERE IS
STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
SECTIONS ON THURSDAY WITH HEAVIER RAIN AMOUNTS JUST SOUTHEAST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA.
&&
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES A CATEGORY OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS
THURSDAY WHICH BLENDS BETTER WITH LAV AND RUC TEMPERATURES.
OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE
QPF AND ANY LINGERING CHANCES FOR FROZEN PRECIP IN THE NORTH DURING
THE DAY THURSDAY. WITH THE CENTER OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SITUATED ACROSS KENTUCKY NEAR 18Z THURSDAY AND DEPARTING
NORTHEASTWARD... ADDITIONAL QPF THRU THE DAY ON THURSDAY LOOKS TO
RANGE FROM NEAR A QUARTER OF AN INCH IN THE SOUTHEAST TO A HUNDREDTH
IN THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM BACK INTO THE
LOW TO MID 40S THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS AND HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS BEGINS TO FILTER INTO THE AREA.
WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST AND
MORE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT... THURSDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY SHOULD BE DRY
WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE 20S AND HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE LOW 40S.
A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH LOOKS TO BRING A CHANCE FOR PRECIP
MOSTLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM 00Z TO
12Z SATURDAY. WHILE NAM HAS THE PRECIP STAYING NORTH OF OUR AREA...
SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ALONG WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE IN
BRINGING SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. WILL THEREFORE GO WITH MAJORITY OF
GUIDANCE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT A COOL ENOUGH COLUMN FOR PRECIP
TYPE TO BE IN THE FORM OF ALL SNOW. ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE FROM A
TRACE IN THE SOUTH TO NEAR A TENTH OF AN INCH IN THE NORTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BY THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD ENSEMBLES HAVE THE REGION
ESTABLISHED IN ZONAL FLOW WHICH LASTS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
WEAK UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT BUT THIS FEATURE APPEARS TO STAY FAR NORTHWARD SO AS
NOT TO AFFECT CENTRAL INDIANA. THE FORECAST AREA WILL THEREFORE
REMAIN DRY FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD...AND TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. ENSEMBLES SUGGEST
THE NEXT UPPER SYSTEM WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT...WHICH THEY HAVE BEEN DEPICTING THESE PAST FEW MODEL RUNS.
BUMPED UP CHANCE POPS SLIGHTLY DURING THIS PERIOD TO ACCOUNT FOR
GOOD CONTINUITY AND CONSENSUS THUS FAR. PRECIPITATION TYPE AT THIS
TIME LOOKS TO BE ALL RAIN.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 260600Z TAFS/...
RAIN IS ACROSS THE SITES AND TEMPERATURES ARE HOVERING JUST ABOVE
THE FREEZING MARK. WITH A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE WINDS EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO STAY STEADY OR INCREASE A DEGREE OR TWO AND THUS
SHOULD BE FINISHED WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING RAIN AT ALL BUT
PERHAPS KLAF. SOME CEILINGS HAVE COME UP TO MVFR OR EVEN VFR BUT
THINK THESE ARE MOMENTARY IMPROVEMENTS WHILE THE OVERALL TREND WILL
STILL BE TOWARD IFR. MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITIES EXPECTED WITH THE RAIN
AND SHOWERS AND IN BETWEEN THEM AS WELL WITH THE SOIL MOISTURE AND
SMALL DEWPOINT DEPRESSION. TIME HEIGHTS INDICATE RAIN AND LOW
CEILINGS WILL STAY IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY BEFORE THE RAIN
TAPERS OFF THURSDAY EVENING. KLAF WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD AND MAY JUST SEE SOME OF THE LOWER CLOUDS FOR A
SHORTER TIME AND NOT THE PRECIPITATION...OR JUST SHORT BOUTS OF IT.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR INZ021-
028>031-035>049.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...AB/JK/JH
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...CP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
955 PM EST WED JAN 25 2012
.UPDATE...
NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG A WARM FRONT INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. A STRONGER UPPER LOW WILL THEN PASS THROUGH
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON THURSDAY ACCOMPANIED BY A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE ALOFT. AS THIS UPPER SYSTEM DEPARTS ON THURSDAY
NIGHT...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF INDIANA WILL
PUSH EAST AS A COLD FRONT. AFTERWARD DRY...NORTHWEST FLOW OF
CANADIAN AIR WILL BEGIN ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN TO THE STATE ON FRIDAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER BACK TO THE
STATE FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT SYSTEM TO
IMPACT THE REGION WILL ARRIVE NEXT TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...
SNOW HAS PRETTY WELL ENDED ACROSS ALL OF OUR FORECAST AREA. WILL
KEEP A CHANCE OF SNOW FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. OTHERWISE...ONLY
REMAINING IMPACTS WILL BE FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET. BOTH RUC AND LAV
INDICATE THERE COULD BE A DEGREE OR TWO RISE OVER CENTRAL SECTIONS
OVERNIGHT WHILE FAR NORTHERN SECTIONS REMAIN WITH NEAR STEADY
TEMPERATURES. FREEZING HAS NOT BEEN REPORTED AT KHUF LAST FEW HOURS
AND WILL DROP VIGO AND CLAY COUNTY FROM WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
OTHERWISE...WILL CONTINUE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AS IS FOR THE REST
OF TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF
THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE WATCH MAY BE CANCELLED BEFORE 10 AM AS
TEMPERATURES MAY RISE A DEGREE OR TWO BY MORNING AND ENDING THE
THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN THERE SOONER.
OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS WILL TAKE OUT ALL MENTION OF FREEZING RAIN AS
TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN INTO THE MID 30S. THERE COULD BE PERIOD OF
SLEET AS FAR SOUTH AS BLOOMINGTON FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT PERIODS OF RAIN FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT.
MAIN AREA OF HEAVIER RAIN IS STILL OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AND I DO NOT SEE ANY QPF PROBLEMS FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT. THERE IS
STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
SECTIONS ON THURSDAY WITH HEAVIER RAIN AMOUNTS JUST SOUTHEAST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA.
&&
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES A CATEGORY OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS
THURSDAY WHICH BLENDS BETTER WITH LAV AND RUC TEMPERATURES.
OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE
QPF AND ANY LINGERING CHANCES FOR FROZEN PRECIP IN THE NORTH DURING
THE DAY THURSDAY. WITH THE CENTER OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SITUATED ACROSS KENTUCKY NEAR 18Z THURSDAY AND DEPARTING
NORTHEASTWARD... ADDITIONAL QPF THRU THE DAY ON THURSDAY LOOKS TO
RANGE FROM NEAR A QUARTER OF AN INCH IN THE SOUTHEAST TO A HUNDREDTH
IN THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM BACK INTO THE
LOW TO MID 40S THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS AND HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS BEGINS TO FILTER INTO THE AREA.
WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST AND
MORE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT... THURSDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY SHOULD BE DRY
WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE 20S AND HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE LOW 40S.
A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH LOOKS TO BRING A CHANCE FOR PRECIP
MOSTLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM 00Z TO
12Z SATURDAY. WHILE NAM HAS THE PRECIP STAYING NORTH OF OUR AREA...
SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ALONG WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE IN
BRINGING SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. WILL THEREFORE GO WITH MAJORITY OF
GUIDANCE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT A COOL ENOUGH COLUMN FOR PRECIP
TYPE TO BE IN THE FORM OF ALL SNOW. ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE FROM A
TRACE IN THE SOUTH TO NEAR A TENTH OF AN INCH IN THE NORTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BY THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD ENSEMBLES HAVE THE REGION
ESTABLISHED IN ZONAL FLOW WHICH LASTS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
WEAK UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT BUT THIS FEATURE APPEARS TO STAY FAR NORTHWARD SO AS
NOT TO AFFECT CENTRAL INDIANA. THE FORECAST AREA WILL THEREFORE
REMAIN DRY FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD...AND TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. ENSEMBLES SUGGEST
THE NEXT UPPER SYSTEM WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT...WHICH THEY HAVE BEEN DEPICTING THESE PAST FEW MODEL RUNS.
BUMPED UP CHANCE POPS SLIGHTLY DURING THIS PERIOD TO ACCOUNT FOR
GOOD CONTINUITY AND CONSENSUS THUS FAR. PRECIPITATION TYPE AT THIS
TIME LOOKS TO BE ALL RAIN.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 260300Z TAFS/...
A WINTRY MIX HAS GIVEN WAY TO MAINLY RAIN ACROSS THE SITES AND
TEMPERATURES HOVERING JUST ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK. WITH WINDS
GAINING A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO STAY STEADY OR
INCREASE A DEGREE OR TWO AND THUS SHOULD BE FINISHED WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING RAIN AT ALL BUT PERHAPS KLAF. SOME CEILINGS
HAVE COME UP TO MVFR OR EVEN VFR BUT THINK THESE ARE MOMENTARY
IMPROVEMENTS WHILE THE OVERALL TREND WILL STILL BE TOWARD IFR.
COULD SEE A BRIEF RESPITE FROM THE RAIN BUT IT WILL REDEVELOP...AND
EVEN IF THERE IS A BREAK COULD SEE MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITIES ANYWAY
WITH THE SOIL MOISTURE AND SMALL DEWPOINT DEPRESSION. TIME HEIGHTS
INDICATE RAIN AND LOW CEILINGS WILL STAY IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF
THURSDAY BEFORE THE RAIN TAPERS OFF THURSDAY EVENING. KLAF WILL BE
ON THE EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD AND MAY JUST SEE SOME OF THE
LOWER CLOUDS FOR A SHORTER TIME AND NOT THE PRECIPITATION...OR JUST
SHORT BOUTS OF IT.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR INZ021-
028>031-035>049.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...AB/JK/JH
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...CP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
310 PM CST MON JAN 24 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS AN OCCLUDED EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE OVER JAMES BAY
WITH AN 850MB COLD FRONT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND BACK INTO NORTHERN
MISSOURI. A RESPECTABLE SHORTWAVE WAS MOVING EAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES WHILE ANOTHER STRONG STORM SYSTEM ORGANIZES OVER NEW MEXICO.
SATELLITE TRENDS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON SHOW CLEARING BEHIND A
DEPARTING SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WHILE MOISTURE
REMAINS TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION ACROSS IOWA. HIGH AND MID CLOUDS
WERE STREAMING EAST FROM THE PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEMS IN THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES.
18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS HIGH PRESSURE FROM MINNESOTA THROUGH CENTRAL
IOWA AND THEN INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A WEAK LOW WAS
NORTH OF KVTN WITH TROFS EXTENDING NORTH AND SOUTH OF IT. THE
SOUTHERN STREAM STORM SYSTEM WAS IN THE BIG BEND OF TEXAS. DEW
POINTS WERE IN THE TEENS AND 20S ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDWEST AND
PLAINS WITH 30S AND HIGH DEW POINTS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WEST INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...
BASED ON SATELLITE CLOUDS TRENDS...THOSE AREAS THAT ARE STILL CLOUDY
WILL LIKELY REMAIN SO THROUGH SUNSET. THE PROXIMITY OF THE SFC RIDGE
COMBINED WITH THE ARRIVAL OF HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP THOSE CLOUDS IN
PLACE THROUGH SUNSET.
UNFORTUNATELY...THE STRAIGHT FORWARD FCST OF DRY CONDITIONS FOR
TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY HAS BECOME MORE COMPLICATED.
STRONG WAA FROM THE SFC TO 850MB IS OCCURRING IN THE PLAINS FROM A
LLJ WHICH IS RESULTING IN CONVERGENCE ACROSS NORTHERN KS/SOUTHERN NE
WHICH IS AIDING IN CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. RUC TRENDS IN WHICH THE
WRF/GFS AGREE SHOWS 850-700MB AND EVENTUALLY 1000-850MB CONDENSATION
PRESSURE DEFICITS LOWERING LATER THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO STRONG
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING INDICATING PRECIPITATION. TRENDS FROM THE
RUC AND OTHER MODELS ARE TO MOVE THIS WING OF WAA PRECIPITATION INTO
IOWA THIS EVENING WITH A NORTHEAST MOVEMENT OVERNIGHT. THE HEAVY
RAIN AND LIFT TOOLS SHOW A SIMILAR SIGNAL. IF SUCH A SCENARIO WAS
OCCURRING ROUGHLY 5 MONTHS FROM NOW THESE SIGNALS WOULD POINT TO AN
MCS DEVELOPING IN THE PLAINS AND MOVING NORTHEAST.
THE WRF/GFS SHOW THE LOWEST 850-700MB CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS
JUST MISSING THE CWFA VERY LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE
1000-850MB CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS ARE HIGHER SUGGESTING
ENOUGH DRY AIR WOULD BE IN PLACE TO PREVENT ANY PRECIPITATION FROM
HAPPENING. HOWEVER...SINCE THE MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING THE CURRENT
LOW CLOUDS ONE MUST BE CAUTIOUS ON THIS ASSUMPTION. GIVEN THE TRENDS
OF THE 18Z WRF RUN...WILL GO WITH THE IDEA THAT THE CWFA WILL REMAIN
DRY TONIGHT. HOWEVER...I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF FLURRIES
DEVELOPED FROM HWY 20 ON NORTH AFTER 3 AM.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD QUICKLY DROP WITH SUNSET IN THE CLEAR AREAS THIS
EVENING. AS THE HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARRIVE THE DROP OFF SHOULD
LEVEL OFF AND MAY EVEN BEGIN A SLOW RISE THROUGH SUNRISE.
WEDNESDAY...FLURRIES MAY OR MAY NOT BE OCCURRING ALONG/NORTH OF HWY
20 DURING THE MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN
THROUGH THE MORNING WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD FROM THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH
THE CWFA. CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS AND THE OVERALL FORCING
SUGGESTS THE NORTHERN LIMIT OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE FROM JUST
SOUTH OF KUIN TO ABOUT KAAA IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS. THUS DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
..08..
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...FORECAST FOCUS
ON A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW BUT NO
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES TO
REMAIN A BIT ABOVE NORMAL BUT A SHOT OF COLDER AIR THIS WEEKEND.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...SPLIT FLOW INITIALLY KEEPS
SOUTHERN STORM SYSTEM SOUTH OF THE DVN CWA AT MID WEEK.
ECM/GFS/NAM/GEM/UKMET ALL KEEP THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA. PHASING TAKES PLACE CRANKING
UP A DECENT CYCLONE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO NEW
ENGLAND LATE THIS WEEK. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM NORTHWEST FLOW
TAKES OVER WITH A STRONG TROUGH DIVING INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED BUT ECM/NAM PAINTS THE
POTENTIAL FOR UP TO AN INCH OF SNOWFALL IN OUR SOUTHERN CWA. THE
GFS/GEM ARE MUCH DRIER. HOWEVER THE LOCATION OF THE AXIS OF THIS
SNOWFALL MAY CHANGE DEPENDING ON THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF A STRONG
VORT MAX EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS THE AREA. MAX TEMPERATURES DURING
THIS TIME FRAME SHOULD BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40.
THIS WEEKEND...FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THIS TROUGH COLDER AIR DUMPS
INTO THE MIDWEST. WILL BE BRISK ON SATURDAY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS
GUSTING TO 30 MPH PUTTING A BITE IN THE AIR. ANOTHER STRONG TROUGH
AND VORT MAX ARRIVES SATURDAY NIGHT BUT MOISTURE WILL BE EVEN MORE
LIMITED. HOWEVER SCATTERED FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE STRENGTH
OF THE SYSTEM BUT FOR NOW WILL NOT MENTION IN THE GRIDS WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE. MIN TEMPS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL DIP TO AROUND 10 ABOVE AT
INDEPENDENCE WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE TEENS. COLD ON SUNDAY WITH
MAX TEMPS ONLY IN THE 20S...BUT LOWER 30S IN OUR FAR SOUTH.
EARLY NEXT WEEK...ZONAL FLOW RETURNS WITH MILDER TEMPERATURES
REACHING INTO THE MID 30S NORTH TO MID 40S SOUTH. WAVE IN THE FLOW
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT MAY BRING A ROUND OF LIGHT RAIN TO THE
CWA...POSSIBLY CHANGING TO LIGHT SNOW AT THE TAIL END. THIS IS A
WEEK AWAY SO CONFIDENCE IN THE INTENSITY/TIMING AND QPF IS LOW.
..HAASE..
&&
.AVIATION...
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO PERSIST UNDER THE INVERSION AS SUBSIDENCE HAS
WEAKENED AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARRIVE. SATELLITE TRENDS CONTINUE TO
SHOW A GRADUAL DECAY OF THE 1-2KFT CLOUDS AND THESE CLOUDS ARE NOT
FAR FROM KCID. THUS IT APPEARS THAT VFR WX SHOULD NOW BE SEEN
THROUGH 06Z/25 AT ALL TAF SITES. AFT 06Z/25 THE CURRENT TAFS HAVE
VFR WX CONTINUING. HOWEVER...WITH WARM AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA
THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR MVFR VSBYS TO DEVELOP PRIOR TO SUNRISE.
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF VCSH AT KDBQ TOWARD 12Z/25 FOR FLURRIES
THAT MAY PERSIST PAST 12Z/25.
..08..
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
544 AM CST TUE JAN 24 2012
.AVIATION...
CLOUD TRENDS SO FAR THIS MORNING SUGGEST CLEARING WILL OCCUR
LATER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. THE NEW SET OF TAFS WAS ISSUED WITH
MVFR/LOWER END VFR CIGS REMAINING OVER THE AREA UNTIL MID TO LATE
MORNING. ONCE THE CLOUDS CLEAR OUT THEN VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. ..DLF..
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 AM CST TUE JAN 24 2012/
SYNOPSIS...
A H5 LOW WAS LOCATED OVER LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY EVENING WITH
RIDGING OVER THE PLAINS AHEAD A S/W OVER THE ROCKIES. AT THE
SURFACE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND A SWRN ONTARIO LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED
WEST TO A SURFACE RIDGE FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS THROUGH SW IA AND
CENTRAL MO EARLY THIS MORNING. STRATUS IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW
EXTENDED TO THE PLAINS RIDGE AXIS.
SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
CLOUD TRENDS WILL DOMINATE THE SHORT TERM WITH A STUBBORN STRATUS
FIELD OVER THE AREA...THEN MID/HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING OVER THE
AREA TONIGHT...AHEAD OF THE S/W MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT.
MODEL RH PROGS ARE OFFERING LITTLE HELP WITH THE STRATUS DECK THIS
MORNING SHOWING A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF DRYING OVER THE CWA BY
12Z. CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS DO NO SUPPORT THIS WITH THE WEST AND
SOUTH EDGES OF THE CLOUD SHIELD MOVING LITTLE SINCE 06Z. THERE WAS
A NARROW AREA OF CLEARING EMBEDDED IN THE STRATUS OVER MN WHICH
THE MODELS WERE DEPICTING. BUT THE CLEARING HAS NOT EXPANDED MUCH
THE LAST FEW HOURS. LOOKING A SOME LOW LEVEL VERTICAL MOTION PROGS
THE RUC AND NAM BOTH SHOW AN INCREASE IN DVM OVER EASTERN IA BY
MID MORNING SO WILL BANK ON THIS AS AN INDICATOR THAT THE RATE OF
CLEARING WILL PICK UP BY MID MORNING. THE LATEST GRIDS WILL HOLD
CLOUDY SKIES OVER AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH CLEARING SPREADING
EAST LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE SLOWER
CLEARING TREND WILL IMPACT TODAY/S HIGHS AND HAVE ADJUSTED MAX
TEMPS DOWN A LITTLE IN THE NORTHEAST WHERE THE CLOUDS WILL LINGER
THE LONGEST.
MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL STREAM BACK OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING AHEAD
OF THE PLAINS SHORT WAVE. THE MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING MUCH AND KEPT MINS IN THE LOWER 20S
CENTRAL AND SOUTH. SNOW COVER IN THE NORTH AND A LATER ARRIVAL
TIME OF THE CLOUDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES OVER THE NORTHERN CWFA
TO DROP OFF QUICKLY THIS EVENING INTO THE TEENS THEN STEADY OUT
THE REST OF THE NIGHT. ..DLF..
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BULK OF LATEST RUN 00Z MODELS CONTINUE THE
IDEA OF AN ALMOST SPLIT FLOW TYPE REGIME AND UN-PHASED SOLUTIONS IN
HANDLING OF A SOUTHERN STREAM CUT-OFF UPPER CYCLONE AND A MORE
DOMINANT NORTHERN STREAM WAVE PULSE RIPPLING ALONG THE MID-CONUS/GRT
LKS U.S. AND CANADIAN BORDER REGIONS THIS PERIOD. THUS WITH THE DVN
CWA REMAINING IN BETWEEN THESE TWO ACTIVE REGIONS...CHANCES ARE FOR
A MAINLY DRY PERIOD. LEAD VORT IN THIS FLOW AND WAA SHOULD PRODUCE
CLOUDS ON WED AND POSSIBLY SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIP IN OR NEAR THE
CWA AND NOT WORTH MENTIONING AT THIS POINT. A LARGER UPPER WAVE IN
THE NORTHERN STREAM DIGGING ACRS THE NW GRT LKS WILL THEN LOOK
TO TRY AND PHASE/INTERACT WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM LOW OVER
TX BY THU. MOST OF THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE PRECIP SHIELD OFF
THIS PROCESS SHOULD REMAIN JUST OFF TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE
DVN CWA THROUGH THU NIGHT...AGAIN WITH MAYBE JUST SOME VERY LIGHT
PRECIP GENERATED ACRS THE LOCAL AREA BY FORCING FROM THE MID LEVEL
TROF AXIS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING IF
ADEQUATE MOISTURE DEPTH WOULD OCCUR WHICH IS STILL UNCERTAIN AT THIS
POINT. ONLY THE LATEST UKMET PHASES THESE SYSTEMS IN A WAY THAT
DEF ZONE PRECIP IN THE FORM OF RAIN AND SNOW IMPACTS THE SOUTHEASTERN
CWA ON THU. FOR NOW WILL IGNORE THAT SOLUTION AND KEEP THE FCST DRY.
WITH ERODED SNOW COVER...PROJECTED THERMAL MODERATION THROUGH THIS
PERIOD SUPPORTS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ESPECIALLY ON THU WHEN PRE-TROF
WAA COULD BOOST TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S IN MUCH OF THE
SOUTHERN 2/3S OF THE FCST AREA ALONG WITH PARTIAL INSOLATION. POST-
TROF COLD AIR ADVECTION ALONG WITH LOW TO MID LEVEL RIDGING SLIDING
EAST ACRS MUCH OF THE LENGTH OF THE MS RVR VALLEY...SHOULD LEAD TO A
MAINLY CLEAR AND COOL NIGHT THU NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS TO
LOWER 20S.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE NEW 00Z RUN ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE
CONSISTENT WITH THE NEXT CLIPPER TYPE WAVE RIPPLING DOWN IN
PROGRESSIVE WEST-NORTH-WESTERLIES AND IS COLD ENOUGH FOR MAINLY SNOW
BY KATE FRI AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING WITH 1-2 INCHES POSSIBLE.
THE FAR SOUTH COULD HAVE A MIX WITH PRE-SYSTEM WARM AIR ADVECTION
AFFECTING THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THE NEW 00Z RUN GFS IS LESS BULLISH
WITH THE WAVE AND FURTHER SOUTHWEST MAINLY MISSING THE AREA. FOR
NOW WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC POPS GOING. NEG ARCTIC OSCILLATION
FLUCTUATIONS AGREE WITH MEDIUM RANGE PROGS AND ENSEMBLES OF
DIGGING L/W TROF PATTERN OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL LEAD TO A
COLDER BLUSTERY SAT BEHIND THE FRI SYSTEM WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
20S TO MID 30S AND PASSING SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES IN TIGHTENING
CYCLONIC FLOW.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...COLDER DAY IN STORE FOR SUNDAY THAN SAT IN
SECOND DAY OF GRT LKS L/W TROFFINESS...BUT MAYBE LESS FLURRIES/SNOW
SHOWERS IF ANY AT ALL. HIGHS IN THE 20S. LONG RANGE SIGNALS AND A
POS TRENDING AO THEN SUGGEST FLATTENING FLOW PATTERN INTO EARLY/MID
NEXT WEEK FOR THERMAL MODERATION BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL. DEPENDING ON
PHASING AND TIMING...THIS PATTERN TO CONTINUE TO BE ACTIVE AND
POSSIBLY USHER ANOTHER SYSTEM THROUGH THE MIDWEST SIMILAR TO WHAT
JUST HAPPENED THIS PAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BY NEXT TUE OR WED.
.12..
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
332 AM CST TUE JAN 24 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A H5 LOW WAS LOCATED OVER LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY EVENING WITH
RIDGING OVER THE PLAINS AHEAD A S/W OVER THE ROCKIES. AT THE
SURFACE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND A SWRN ONTARIO LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED
WEST TO A SURFACE RIDGE FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS THROUGH SW IA AND
CENTRAL MO EARLY THIS MORNING. STRATUS IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW
EXTENDED TO THE PLAINS RIDGE AXIS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
CLOUD TRENDS WILL DOMINATE THE SHORT TERM WITH A STUBBORN STRATUS
FIELD OVER THE AREA...THEN MID/HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING OVER THE
AREA TONIGHT...AHEAD OF THE S/W MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT.
MODEL RH PROGS ARE OFFERING LITTLE HELP WITH THE STRATUS DECK THIS
MORNING SHOWING A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF DRYING OVER THE CWA BY
12Z. CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS DO NO SUPPORT THIS WITH THE WEST AND
SOUTH EDGES OF THE CLOUD SHIELD MOVING LITTLE SINCE 06Z. THERE WAS
A NARROW AREA OF CLEARING EMBEDDED IN THE STRATUS OVER MN WHICH
THE MODELS WERE DEPICTING. BUT THE CLEARING HAS NOT EXPANDED MUCH
THE LAST FEW HOURS. LOOKING A SOME LOW LEVEL VERTICAL MOTION PROGS
THE RUC AND NAM BOTH SHOW AN INCREASE IN DVM OVER EASTERN IA BY
MID MORNING SO WILL BANK ON THIS AS AN INDICATOR THAT THE RATE OF
CLEARING WILL PICK UP BY MID MORNING. THE LATEST GRIDS WILL HOLD
CLOUDY SKIES OVER AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH CLEARING SPREADING
EAST LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE SLOWER
CLEARING TREND WILL IMPACT TODAY/S HIGHS AND HAVE ADJUSTED MAX
TEMPS DOWN A LITTLE IN THE NORTHEAST WHERE THE CLOUDS WILL LINGER
THE LONGEST.
MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL STREAM BACK OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING AHEAD
OF THE PLAINS SHORT WAVE. THE MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING MUCH AND KEPT MINS IN THE LOWER 20S
CENTRAL AND SOUTH. SNOW COVER IN THE NORTH AND A LATER ARRIVAL
TIME OF THE CLOUDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES OVER THE NORTHERN CWFA
TO DROP OFF QUICKLY THIS EVENING INTO THE TEENS THEN STEADY OUT
THE REST OF THE NIGHT. ..DLF..
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BULK OF LATEST RUN 00Z MODELS CONTINUE THE
IDEA OF AN ALMOST SPLIT FLOW TYPE REGIME AND UN-PHASED SOLUTIONS IN
HANDLING OF A SOUTHERN STREAM CUT-OFF UPPER CYCLONE AND A MORE
DOMINANT NORTHERN STREAM WAVE PULSE RIPPLING ALONG THE MID-CONUS/GRT
LKS U.S. AND CANADIAN BORDER REGIONS THIS PERIOD. THUS WITH THE DVN
CWA REMAINING IN BETWEEN THESE TWO ACTIVE REGIONS...CHANCES ARE FOR
A MAINLY DRY PERIOD. LEAD VORT IN THIS FLOW AND WAA SHOULD PRODUCE
CLOUDS ON WED AND POSSIBLY SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIP IN OR NEAR THE
CWA AND NOT WORTH MENTIONING AT THIS POINT. A LARGER UPPER WAVE IN
THE NORTHERN STREAM DIGGING ACRS THE NW GRT LKS WILL THEN LOOK
TO TRY AND PHASE/INTERACT WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM LOW OVER
TX BY THU. MOST OF THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE PRECIP SHIELD OFF
THIS PROCESS SHOULD REMAIN JUST OFF TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE
DVN CWA THROUGH THU NIGHT...AGAIN WITH MAYBE JUST SOME VERY LIGHT
PRECIP GENERATED ACRS THE LOCAL AREA BY FORCING FROM THE MID LEVEL
TROF AXIS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING IF
ADEQUATE MOISTURE DEPTH WOULD OCCUR WHICH IS STILL UNCERTAIN AT THIS
POINT. ONLY THE LATEST UKMET PHASES THESE SYSTEMS IN A WAY THAT
DEF ZONE PRECIP IN THE FORM OF RAIN AND SNOW IMPACTS THE SOUTHEASTERN
CWA ON THU. FOR NOW WILL IGNORE THAT SOLUTION AND KEEP THE FCST DRY.
WITH ERODED SNOW COVER...PROJECTED THERMAL MODERATION THROUGH THIS
PERIOD SUPPORTS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ESPECIALLY ON THU WHEN PRE-TROF
WAA COULD BOOST TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S IN MUCH OF THE
SOUTHERN 2/3S OF THE FCST AREA ALONG WITH PARTIAL INSOLATION. POST-
TROF COLD AIR ADVECTION ALONG WITH LOW TO MID LEVEL RIDGING SLIDING
EAST ACRS MUCH OF THE LENGTH OF THE MS RVR VALLEY...SHOULD LEAD TO A
MAINLY CLEAR AND COOL NIGHT THU NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS TO
LOWER 20S.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE NEW 00Z RUN ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE
CONSISTENT WITH THE NEXT CLIPPER TYPE WAVE RIPPLING DOWN IN
PROGRESSIVE WEST-NORTH-WESTERLIES AND IS COLD ENOUGH FOR MAINLY SNOW
BY KATE FRI AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING WITH 1-2 INCHES POSSIBLE.
THE FAR SOUTH COULD HAVE A MIX WITH PRE-SYSTEM WARM AIR ADVECTION
AFFECTING THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THE NEW 00Z RUN GFS IS LESS BULLISH
WITH THE WAVE AND FURTHER SOUTHWEST MAINLY MISSING THE AREA. FOR
NOW WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC POPS GOING. NEG ARCTIC OSCILLATION
FLUCTUATIONS AGREE WITH MEDIUM RANGE PROGS AND ENSEMBLES OF
DIGGING L/W TROF PATTERN OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL LEAD TO A
COLDER BLUSTERY SAT BEHIND THE FRI SYSTEM WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
20S TO MID 30S AND PASSING SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES IN TIGHTENING
CYCLONIC FLOW.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...COLDER DAY IN STORE FOR SUNDAY THAN SAT IN
SECOND DAY OF GRT LKS L/W TROFFINESS...BUT MAYBE LESS FLURRIES/SNOW
SHOWERS IF ANY AT ALL. HIGHS IN THE 20S. LONG RANGE SIGNALS AND A
POS TRENDING AO THEN SUGGEST FLATTENING FLOW PATTERN INTO EARLY/MID
NEXT WEEK FOR THERMAL MODERATION BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL. DEPENDING ON
PHASING AND TIMING...THIS PATTERN TO CONTINUE TO BE ACTIVE AND
POSSIBLY USHER ANOTHER SYSTEM THROUGH THE MIDWEST SIMILAR TO WHAT
JUST HAPPENED THIS PAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BY NEXT TUE OR WED.
..12..
&&
.AVIATION...
CLOUD TRENDS SO FAR THIS MORNING SUGGEST CLEARING WILL OCCUR LATER
THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. A NEW SET OF TAFS WILL BE ISSUED WITH
MVFR/LOWER END VFR CIGS REMAINING OVER THE AREA UNTIL MID TO LATE
MORNING. ONCE THE CLOUDS CLEAR OUT THEN VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. ..DLF..
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
DLF/12
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
1200 PM EST TUE JAN 24 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PASS NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY WITH A
WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON. A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION FROM QUEBEC LATER
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...MOST OF THE FOG HAS FINALLY LIFTED AS DRIER AIR WORKS
INTO THE REGION BEHIND A WEAK FRONT THAT HAS JUST PASSED THROUGH.
STILL SEEING SOME LIGHT RETURNS ON RADAR OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS...
SO WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR A FEW MORE HOURS.
OTHERWISE NO OTHER CHANGES WERE NEEDED.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...RADAR DEPICTING STEADIER RAFL MAKING ITS
WAY ACROSS THE EASTERN 3RD OF THE CWA W/THE SATL IR IMAGERY LINING
UP W/THE ENHANCEMENT IN THE SAME REGION. THE GFS AND RUC LINING UP
QUITE WELL W/THE RAFL AT 06Z AND FOLLOWED THIS BLEND THROUGH TODAY
W/RAIN ENDING THIS MORNING W/SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH MID
MORNING AND THEN ENDING. THE GFSBC WAS BLENDED W/THE LAMP GUIDANCE
WHICH SHOWED A SURGE OF WARMER AIR PUSHING IN ACROSS THE EASTERN
1/2 OF THE CWA THIS MORNING. DECIDED TO BRING TEMPERATURES UP
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA TO NEAR 40F AND MID TO
UPPER 40S FROM HOULTON DOWN THROUGH WASHINGTON COUNTY AND SOUTH
THROUGH THE BANGOR AND BAR HARBOR REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL LEVEL
OFF LATER THIS MORNING AND THEN MAKE THEIR DECLINE AS SOME
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION. THIS IS ALREADY
TAKING PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN NH AND SW MAINE.
SOME WEAK RIDGING IS SHOWN BY THE GFS AND THE NAM TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION THIS EVENING W/SOME PARTIAL CLEARING. THIS WILL BE SHORT
LIVED HOWEVER AS THE UPPER TROF AND SFC COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE
STATE LATER IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE
ENOUGH FORCING TO KICK OFF SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTH AND WEST. CARRIED 30-40% POPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND
WESTERN AREAS. FURTHER EAST, FORCING LOOKS WEAK W/20% ADDED FOR
SOME FLURRIES OR A SNOW SHOWER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
FOR LATE JANUARY W/READINGS DROPPING BACK TO THE UPPER TEENS AND
LOWER 20S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WELL NORTHEAST OF THE REGION
ON WEDNESDAY. EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE NORTH AND
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DOWNEAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION ON
THURSDAY. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM ZERO TO 5 ABOVE
NORTH AND 10 TO 15 DOWNEAST. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOW TO MID 20S NORTH AND UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S DOWNEAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE STARTS
TO DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTHWEST. THIS LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TOWARD
THE REGION DURING FRIDAY AND THEN NORTHEAST INTO THE MARITIMES
FRIDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION
DURING FRIDAY. ACROSS THE NORTH PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE FORM OF SNOW WITH RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS DOWNEAST. THE LOW
WILL THEN TRACK TO OUR NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS. ANOTHER LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SOMEWHERE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST SUNDAY AND THEN TRACK NORTHEAST
SUNDAY NIGHT. DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK AND TIMING OF THIS
SYSTEM THERE COULD BE ANOTHER PERIOD OF SNOW LATER SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE JUST WENT WITH THE A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
WITH THIS SYSTEM FOR NOW SINCE THIS IS STILL ALONG WAY OUT AND
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TO THE
REGION FOR NEXT MONDAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL BE
NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL FRO THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR FOR ALL TERMINALS THIS MORNING GIVING WAY TO MVFR
BY MID MORNING AND THEN IT LOOKS LIKE VFR BY THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE NORTHERN TERMINALS(CAR-PQI &
HUL) AS CIGS COULD VERY WELL HIT MVFR LATER TONIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.
SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT IN WINTRY
PRECIPITATION. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN RETURN FOR SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS/SEAS ARE
AOA SCA LEVELS ATTM. THERE WILL BE A LULL IN THE WINDS LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. WINDS LOOK LIKE THEY WILL PICK UP
AGAIN TONIGHT W/THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROF. CARRIED GUSTS TO 25
KTS AS THINKING IS THAT SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE 15-20 KTS. SEAS
WILL STAY UP ABOVE SCA THROUGH TONIGHT. A BLEND OF THE SWAN AND
WNAWAVE WAS USED FOR THE SEAS WHICH KEEP HEIGHTS AOA 6 FT.
SHORT TERM: WIND/SEAS SHOULD BE BELOW SCA LEVELS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...THEN INCREASE TO SCA LEVELS BY FRIDAY.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...HASTINGS/HEWITT
MARINE...HASTINGS/HEWITT/
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
915 AM EST TUE JAN 24 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PASS NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY WITH A
WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON. A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION FROM QUEBEC LATER
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE FOR THIS UPDATE. THE MAIN CONCERN
THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO BE AREAS OF FOG...SO KEPT THE MENTION
OF THIS THROUGH MID-MORNING. ALSO ADJUSTED SKY COVER UP A BIT
THIS MORNING AS SATELLITE SHOWS PLENTY OF CLOUDS BLANKETING THE
STATE. NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...RADAR DEPICTING STEADIER RAFL MAKING ITS
WAY ACROSS THE EASTERN 3RD OF THE CWA W/THE SATL IR IMAGERY LINING
UP W/THE ENHANCEMENT IN THE SAME REGION. THE GFS AND RUC LINING UP
QUITE WELL W/THE RAFL AT 06Z AND FOLLOWED THIS BLEND THROUGH TODAY
W/RAIN ENDING THIS MORNING W/SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH MID
MORNING AND THEN ENDING. THE GFSBC WAS BLENDED W/THE LAMP GUIDANCE
WHICH SHOWED A SURGE OF WARMER AIR PUSHING IN ACROSS THE EASTERN
1/2 OF THE CWA THIS MORNING. DECIDED TO BRING TEMPERATURES UP
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA TO NEAR 40F AND MID TO
UPPER 40S FROM HOULTON DOWN THROUGH WASHINGTON COUNTY AND SOUTH
THROUGH THE BANGOR AND BAR HARBOR REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL LEVEL
OFF LATER THIS MORNING AND THEN MAKE THEIR DECLINE AS SOME
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION. THIS IS ALREADY
TAKING PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN NH AND SW MAINE.
SOME WEAK RIDGING IS SHOWN BY THE GFS AND THE NAM TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION THIS EVENING W/SOME PARTIAL CLEARING. THIS WILL BE SHORT
LIVED HOWEVER AS THE UPPER TROF AND SFC COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE
STATE LATER IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE
ENOUGH FORCING TO KICK OFF SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTH AND WEST. CARRIED 30-40% POPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND
WESTERN AREAS. FURTHER EAST, FORCING LOOKS WEAK W/20% ADDED FOR
SOME FLURRIES OR A SNOW SHOWER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
FOR LATE JANUARY W/READINGS DROPPING BACK TO THE UPPER TEENS AND
LOWER 20S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WELL NORTHEAST OF THE REGION
ON WEDNESDAY. EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE NORTH AND
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DOWNEAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION ON
THURSDAY. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM ZERO TO 5 ABOVE
NORTH AND 10 TO 15 DOWNEAST. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOW TO MID 20S NORTH AND UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S DOWNEAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE STARTS
TO DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTHWEST. THIS LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TOWARD
THE REGION DURING FRIDAY AND THEN NORTHEAST INTO THE MARITIMES
FRIDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION
DURING FRIDAY. ACROSS THE NORTH PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE FORM OF SNOW WITH RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS DOWNEAST. THE LOW
WILL THEN TRACK TO OUR NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS. ANOTHER LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SOMEWHERE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST SUNDAY AND THEN TRACK NORTHEAST
SUNDAY NIGHT. DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK AND TIMING OF THIS
SYSTEM THERE COULD BE ANOTHER PERIOD OF SNOW LATER SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE JUST WENT WITH THE A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
WITH THIS SYSTEM FOR NOW SINCE THIS IS STILL ALONG WAY OUT AND
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TO THE
REGION FOR NEXT MONDAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL BE
NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL FRO THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR FOR ALL TERMINALS THIS MORNING GIVING WAY TO MVFR
BY MID MORNING AND THEN IT LOOKS LIKE VFR BY THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE NORTHERN TERMINALS(CAR-PQI &
HUL) AS CIGS COULD VERY WELL HIT MVFR LATER TONIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.
SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT IN WINTRY
PRECIPITATION. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN RETURN FOR SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS/SEAS ARE
AOA SCA LEVELS ATTM. THERE WILL BE A LULL IN THE WINDS LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. WINDS LOOK LIKE THEY WILL PICK UP
AGAIN TONIGHT W/THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROF. CARRIED GUSTS TO 25
KTS AS THINKING IS THAT SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE 15-20 KTS. SEAS
WILL STAY UP ABOVE SCA THROUGH TONIGHT. A BLEND OF THE SWAN AND
WNAWAVE WAS USED FOR THE SEAS WHICH KEEP HEIGHTS AOA 6 FT.
SHORT TERM: WIND/SEAS SHOULD BE BELOW SCA LEVELS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...THEN INCREASE TO SCA LEVELS BY FRIDAY.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...HASTINGS/HEWITT
MARINE...HASTINGS/HEWITT/
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
603 AM EST TUE JAN 24 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PASS NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY WITH A
WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON. A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION FROM QUEBEC LATER
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TEMPERATURES ARE THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE FOR THIS TERM.
UPDATE...MODIFIED TEMPERATURES W/THE CURRENT READINGS SHOWING THE
WARMING TREND. SOME OF THE LOWER AREAS SUCH BLANCHARD IN
PISCATAQUIS COUNTY ARE STILL HOVERING IN THE LOWER 30S. ELSEWHERE,
TEMPERATURES ARE WELL ABOVE FREEZING W/MELTING OCCURRING. EXPECTING
SOME SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD AID IN MORE MELTING
BEFORE THE COOLER AIR SETTLES IN. PUSHED STEADY RAIN INTO NEW
BRUNSWICK USING THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND THEREFORE DROPPED THE
POPS BACK THROUGH THIS MORNING.
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
RADAR DEPICTING STEADIER RAFL MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE EASTERN
3RD OF THE CWA W/THE SATL IR IMAGERY LINING UP W/THE ENHANCEMENT
IN THE SAME REGION. THE GFS AND RUC LINING UP QUITE WELL W/THE
RAFL AT 06Z AND FOLLOWED THIS BLEND THROUGH TODAY W/RAIN ENDING
THIS MORNING W/SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH MID MORNING AND THEN
ENDING. THE GFSBC WAS BLENDED W/THE LAMP GUIDANCE WHICH SHOWED A
SURGE OF WARMER AIR PUSHING IN ACROSS THE EASTERN 1/2 OF THE CWA
THIS MORNING. DECIDED TO BRING TEMPERATURES UP ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE CWA TO NEAR 40F AND MID TO UPPER 40S FROM HOULTON
DOWN THROUGH WASHINGTON COUNTY AND SOUTH THROUGH THE BANGOR AND
BAR HARBOR REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL LEVEL OFF LATER THIS MORNING
AND THEN MAKE THEIR DECLINE AS SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR FILTERS
INTO THE REGION. THIS IS ALREADY TAKING PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN NH
AND SW MAINE.
SOME WEAK RIDGING IS SHOWN BY THE GFS AND THE NAM TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION THIS EVENING W/SOME PARTIAL CLEARING. THIS WILL BE SHORT
LIVED HOWEVER AS THE UPPER TROF AND SFC COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE
STATE LATER IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE
ENOUGH FORCING TO KICK OFF SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTH AND WEST. CARRIED 30-40% POPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND
WESTERN AREAS. FURTHER EAST, FORCING LOOKS WEAK W/20% ADDED FOR
SOME FLURRIES OR A SNOW SHOWER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
FOR LATE JANUARY W/READINGS DROPPING BACK TO THE UPPER TEENS AND
LOWER 20S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WELL NORTHEAST OF THE REGION
ON WEDNESDAY. EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE NORTH AND
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DOWNEAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION ON
THURSDAY. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM ZERO TO 5 ABOVE
NORTH AND 10 TO 15 DOWNEAST. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOW TO MID 20S NORTH AND UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S DOWNEAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE STARTS
TO DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTHWEST. THIS LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TOWARD
THE REGION DURING FRIDAY AND THEN NORTHEAST INTO THE MARITIMES
FRIDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION
DURING FRIDAY. ACROSS THE NORTH PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE FORM OF SNOW WITH RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS DOWNEAST. THE LOW
WILL THEN TRACK TO OUR NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS. ANOTHER LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SOMEWHERE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST SUNDAY AND THEN TRACK NORTHEAST
SUNDAY NIGHT. DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK AND TIMING OF THIS
SYSTEM THERE COULD BE ANOTHER PERIOD OF SNOW LATER SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE JUST WENT WITH THE A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
WITH THIS SYSTEM FOR NOW SINCE THIS IS STILL ALONG WAY OUT AND
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TO THE
REGION FOR NEXT MONDAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL BE
NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL FRO THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR FOR ALL TERMINALS THIS MORNING GIVING WAY TO MVFR
BY MID MORNING AND THEN IT LOOKS LIKE VFR BY THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE NORTHERN TERMINALS(CAR-PQI &
HUL) AS CIGS COULD VERY WELL HIT MVFR LATER TONIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.
SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT IN WINTRY
PRECIPITATION. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN RETURN FOR SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS/SEAS ARE
AOA SCA LEVELS ATTM. THERE WILL BE A LULL IN THE WINDS LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. WINDS LOOK LIKE THEY WILL PICK UP
AGAIN TONIGHT W/THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROF. CARRIED GUSTS TO 25
KTS AS THINKING IS THAT SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE 15-20 KTS. SEAS
WILL STAY UP ABOVE SCA THROUGH TONIGHT. A BLEND OF THE SWAN AND
WNAWAVE WAS USED FOR THE SEAS WHICH KEEP HEIGHTS AOA 6 FT.
SHORT TERM: WIND/SEAS SHOULD BE BELOW SCA LEVELS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...THEN INCREASE TO SCA LEVELS BY FRIDAY.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
415 AM EST TUE JAN 24 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PASS NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY WITH A
WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON. A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION FROM QUEBEC LATER
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TEMPERATURES ARE THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE FOR THIS TERM.
RADAR DEPICTING STEADIER RAFL MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE EASTERN
3RD OF THE CWA W/THE SATL IR IMAGERY LINING UP W/THE ENHANCEMENT
IN THE SAME REGION. THE GFS AND RUC LINING UP QUITE WELL W/THE
RAFL AT 06Z AND FOLLOWED THIS BLEND THROUGH TODAY W/RAIN ENDING
THIS MORNING W/SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH MID MORNING AND THEN
ENDING. THE GFSBC WAS BLENDED W/THE LAMP GUIDANCE WHICH SHOWED A
SURGE OF WARMER AIR PUSHING IN ACROSS THE EASTERN 1/2 OF THE CWA
THIS MORNING. DECIDED TO BRING TEMPERATURES UP ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE CWA TO NEAR 40F AND MID TO UPPER 40S FROM HOULTON
DOWN THROUGH WASHINGTON COUNTY AND SOUTH THROUGH THE BANGOR AND
BAR HARBOR REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL LEVEL OFF LATER THIS MORNING
AND THEN MAKE THEIR DECLINE AS SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR FILTERS
INTO THE REGION. THIS IS ALREADY TAKING PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN NH
AND SW MAINE.
SOME WEAK RIDGING IS SHOWN BY THE GFS AND THE NAM TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION THIS EVENING W/SOME PARTIAL CLEARING. THIS WILL BE SHORT
LIVED HOWEVER AS THE UPPER TROF AND SFC COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE
STATE LATER IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE
ENOUGH FORCING TO KICK OFF SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTH AND WEST. CARRIED 30-40% POPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND
WESTERN AREAS. FURTHER EAST, FORCING LOOKS WEAK W/20% ADDED FOR
SOME FLURRIES OR A SNOW SHOWER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
FOR LATE JANUARY W/READINGS DROPPING BACK TO THE UPPER TEENS AND
LOWER 20S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WELL NORTHEAST OF THE REGION
ON WEDNESDAY. EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE NORTH AND
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DOWNEAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION ON
THURSDAY. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM ZERO TO 5 ABOVE
NORTH AND 10 TO 15 DOWNEAST. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOW TO MID 20S NORTH AND UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S DOWNEAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE STARTS
TO DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTHWEST. THIS LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TOWARD
THE REGION DURING FRIDAY AND THEN NORTHEAST INTO THE MARITIMES
FRIDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION
DURING FRIDAY. ACROSS THE NORTH PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE FORM OF SNOW WITH RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS DOWNEAST. THE LOW
WILL THEN TRACK TO OUR NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS. ANOTHER LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SOMEWHERE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST SUNDAY AND THEN TRACK NORTHEAST
SUNDAY NIGHT. DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK AND TIMING OF THIS
SYSTEM THERE COULD BE ANOTHER PERIOD OF SNOW LATER SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE JUST WENT WITH THE A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
WITH THIS SYSTEM FOR NOW SINCE THIS IS STILL ALONG WAY OUT AND
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TO THE
REGION FOR NEXT MONDAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL BE
NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL FRO THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR FOR ALL TERMINALS THIS MORNING GIVING WAY TO MVFR
BY MID MORNING AND THEN IT LOOKS LIKE VFR BY THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE NORTHERN TERMINALS(CAR-PQI &
HUL) AS CIGS COULD VERY WELL HIT MVFR LATER TONIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.
SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT IN WINTRY
PRECIPITATION. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN RETURN FOR SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS/SEAS ARE
AOA SCA LEVELS ATTM. THERE WILL BE A LULL IN THE WINDS LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. WINDS LOOK LIKE THEY WILL PICK UP
AGAIN TONIGHT W/THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROF. CARRIED GUSTS TO 25
KTS AS THINKING IS THAT SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE 15-20 KTS. SEAS
WILL STAY UP ABOVE SCA THROUGH TONIGHT. A BLEND OF THE SWAN AND
WNAWAVE WAS USED FOR THE SEAS WHICH KEEP HEIGHTS AOA 6 FT.
SHORT TERM: WIND/SEAS SHOULD BE BELOW SCA LEVELS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...THEN INCREASE TO SCA LEVELS BY FRIDAY.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...HEWITT
MARINE...HEWITT/DUDA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
1212 AM EST TUE JAN 24 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PASS NORTH OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION FROM THE
WEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE
REGION FROM QUEBEC ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE...DECIDED TO DROP THE REST OF THE WINTER WX ADVISORIES AS
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED ABOVE FREEZING EVEN AS FAR NORTH AS THE
SAINT JOHN VALLEY. TEMPERATURES RIGHT AT THE GROUND ARE STILL COLD
ENOUGH FOR THE RAIN TO FREEZE, BUT CONDITIONS ARE IMPROVING. THE
GFS AND RUC IN LINE W/THE LATEST CONDITIONS. MOVED TIMING OF
ENDING THE STEADIER RAINFALL BY 10-12Z TIMEFRAME W/JUST SOME RAIN
SHOWERS LEFTOVER. THE GFSBC TEMPERATURES MATCHING UP QUITE. LAMP
GUIDANCE A BIT COOL. BLENDED THE GFSBC W/THE LAMP FOR HRLY
TEMPERATURES WHICH PUSHES 40+F ALL THE WAY UP INTO NE AROOSTOOK
BY 12Z. SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE QPF WERE MADE USING THE LATEST
OBS AND GFS/RUC QPF FIELDS.
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES INTO ONTARIO. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM HAS
SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON RESULTING IN A
SIGNIFICANT WARM UP. ALREADY STARTING TO SEE SOME LIGHT WAA
RETURNS ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA...MOSTLY FALLING THE
FORM OF LIGHT SNOW. TEMPERATURES DOWNEAST ARE ALREADY AT OR ABOVE
FREEZING...WITH MID 20S TO AROUND 30 NORTH OF A LINCOLN TO DOVER-
FOXCROFT LINE. THESE TEMPS SHOULD HOLD FAIRLY STEADY OR RISE JUST
A BIT THIS EVENING AND THEN RISE SIGNIFICANTLY OVERNIGHT. AS THE
WARM AIR INTRUDES ALOFT EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION TO BECOME A
WINTRY MIX BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO RAIN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
OVERNIGHT. THE COLDER AIR ACROSS THE NORTH WILL BE TOUGH FOR THE
INCOMING MILD AIRMASS TO DISLODGE SO THE MIX OF SLEET...FREEZING
RAIN...AND SNOW WILL LINGER THE LONGEST THERE BEFORE CHANGING
OVER. THE GOOD NEWS IN ALL THIS...AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH
THIS EVENING AS THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS CURRENTLY LOCATED
WELL TO OUR WEST ALONG AN APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT. BY THE TIME
THIS HEAVIER PRECIP MAKES IT TO OUR AREA TEMPERATURES SHOULD
MOSTLY BE ABOVE FREEZING. THEREFORE SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS THAN
AN INCH WITH LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER EVEN ONCE TEMPERATURES
WARM UP ENOUGH FOR THE PRECIPITATION TO CHANGE TO ALL
RAIN...SURFACES SUCH AS UNTREATED SIDE ROADS MAY STILL BE BELOW
FREEZING FOR A FEW HOURS. ACCORDINGLY THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
THE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE TUESDAY MORNING WITH DRIER
AIR SPREADING IN ITS WAKE. THE RAIN WILL COME TO AN END ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS
HANGING ON ACROSS THE NORTH AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS. DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPS WILL BE EARLY...IN THE 40S...THEN TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY
FALL THROUGH THE DAY REACHING THE 30S BY EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BEHIND THE WEAK...FIRST COLD FRONT...TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
QUITE MILD TUE NGT...BUT NOT AS WARM AS TNGT...WITH CLDS AND
FLURRIES ARRIVING LATE INTO NRN PTNS OF THE FA AHEAD OF AN UPPER
TROF MOVG E TOWARD THE FA FROM CNTRL CAN. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
ACCOMPANIES THIS FEATURE...WITH THE FRONT MOVG INTO NW PTNS OF
THE FA EARLY-MID MORN AND EXITING THE SE PTN OF THE FA BY ERLY TO
MID AFT. THE POSSIBILITY OF SOMEWHAT ENHANCED SN SHWRS EXIST WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THESE FEATURES...SPCLY ACROSS THE N WED MORN WHERE
MENTION LOCALIZED SN ACCUMULATIONS UP TO AN INCH. BY WED AFTN...
CLDS WILL BE ON THE DECREASE WITH FALLING AFTN TEMPS BEHIND THE
SECOND COLD FRONT. ANOTHER FOLLOW-UP S/WV FROM CNTRL CAN MAY KEEP
SOME CLDS OVR THE FA WED EVE...FOLLOWED BY CLRG LATE WED NGT AS
SFC HI PRES APCHS BY THU MORN. HI TEMPS WED WILL LIKELY ONLY
RECOVER SEVERAL DEGREES...SPCLY N AND W...BEFORE FALLING IN THE
AFTN AND THEN SHOULD REACH NEAR SEASONAL LOWS THU MORN.
THU SHOULD BE FAIR WITH NEAR SEASONAL HI TEMPS...WITH INCREASING HI
CLDS LATE IN THE DAY AS THE SFC HI MOVES JUST E OF THE FA.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT
WEAK AND PROGRESSIVE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVG ENE FROM THE N MID
ATLC STATES THRU CNTRL NEW ENG THU NGT INTO THE GULF OF ME ON FRI.
THIS BETTER AGREEMENT LEAD OUR OFFICE TO INCREASE POPS TO THE HI
LIKELY CAT FOR PRECIP THAT MOVES INTO OUR FA ON FRI. PRIOR TO
THIS...CLDS WILL THICKEN OVRNGT WITH OVRNGT LOWS OCCURRING BY LATE
EVE DUE TO THIS CLD CVR AND INCREASING LLVL WARM ADVCN. AFTWRDS
TEMPS WILL BEGIN RISING THRU THE LATE NGT HRS WITH SN ARRIVING IN
THE PRE-DAWN HRS BASED ON CURRENT MODEL ONSET TIMING. LLVL 1000-
850 MB THICKNESS PROGS SUGGEST SN COULD MIX WITH OR EVEN CHG TO RN
AS FAR N AS INTERIOR DOWNEAST OR EVEN PERHAPS SRN E CNTRL AREAS BY
LATE FRI MORN. THE REST OF THE FA SHOULD REMAIN ALL SN UNTIL THE
CONCLUSION OF THE EVENT BY MID TO LATE FRI AFTN. HI TEMPS WILL BE
MILDER THAN AVG FRI AND CONT SO WITH THE POSSIBILITY SN SHWRS FRI
NGT INTO SAT. LONGER RANGE MODELS CONT TO DVRG AND SHOW RUN TO RUN
INCONSISTENCIES WITH ANY EVENT ADVERTISED FOR LATE SAT NGT THRU
SUN NGT...SO BASED ON LOW FCST CONFIDENCE FOR THIS PTN OF THE
FCST...WE KEPT POPS IN THE LOW CHC CAT...MENTIONING MSLY SN SHWRS
ATTM. THERE IS EVEN LESS CERTAINTY REGARDING WHAT AIR MASS TYPE
WILL OCCUPY THE FA FROM SAT INTO MON...SO FOR NOW...WE BLENDED
12Z GMOS TEMPS WITH OPNL GFS AND 06Z DGEX DATA.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR DROPPING TO IFR DUE TO LOW CEILINGS THIS EVENING
AS PRECIPITATION SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION. THE PRECIPITATION WILL
BE ALL RAIN AT KBGR AND KBHB BUT A MIX OF SLEET...SNOW AND
FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS THROUGH ABOUT
04Z BEFORE IT TRANSITIONS OVER TO RAIN. THE RAIN WILL COME TO AN
END 12-14Z TUESDAY...BUT THE IFR CEILINGS WILL LINGER THROUGH 18Z
BEFORE LIFTING TO MVFR/VFR.
SHORT TO LONG TERM: MVFR CLGS AND AT TMS...VSBYS IN FLURRIES AND
SNOW SHWRS XPCTD TUE NGT THRU WED...WITH POSSIBLE BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS WITH MORE INTENSE SN SHWRS AHEAD OF THE SECONDARY COLD
FRONT WED MORN. DOWNEAST SITES WILL BE MSLY VFR DURG THIS TM...
XCPT BRIEFLY MVFR WITH ANY FLURRIES OR SN SHWRS LATE MORN/ERLY
AFTN WED. ALL SITES SHOULD THEN BE VFR FROM LATE AFTN WED THRU
THU EVE...BECOMING MVFR LATE THU NGT AND IFR ON FRI IN SN NRN TAF
SITES AND RN/SN MIXED DOWNEAST SITES. DOWNEAST TAF SITES BECOME
VFR FRI NGT WHILE NRN SITES BECOME MVFR AND ALL SITES SHOULD
BECOME VFR ON SAT.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THIS
EVENING THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY. SOUTH WINDS ARE ALREADY INCREASING
ACROSS THE WATERS IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE MOVING TO THE WEST.
SUSTAINED WINDS 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD AND SHOULD SLOWLY SUBSIDE LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
SHORT TO LONG TERM: MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUE
NGT INTO WED EVE WITH COLD ADVCN NW WINDS. NO HDLNS ANTICIPATED
LATE WED NGT INTO THU EVE. ANOTHER SCA PD IS POSSIBLE LATE THU NGT
INTO FRI WITH SE WINDS AHEAD OF LOW PRES MOVG ENE THRU THE GULF OF
ME FROM CNTRL NEW ENG.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
1023 AM EST TUE JAN 24 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
IT WILL BE BRISK AND COOLER TODAY AS COLD AIR MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION WITH HIGH PRESSURE. SKIES WILL CLEAR LATE DAY WITH DRY AND
SEASONABLE CONDITIONS INTO WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST FROM TEXAS THURSDAY BRINGING RAIN INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WITH 1030AM UPDATE...USED 12Z NAM/14Z HRRR TO BETTER HIGHLIGHT
HOURLY TEMPERATURE TRENDS. ALTHOUGH SOUTHERN COUNTIES MAY SEE A
SLIGHT RISE IN TEMPERATURES WITH DECREASING CLOUD COVER IN THE
AFTERNOON...MOST OTHER LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE RELATIVELY STEADY
TEMPERATURE THROUGH THE DAY. HAVE REMOVED SNOW SHOWERS FROM THE
FORECAST...WITH THE HRRR THE ONLY HIGH-RESOLUTION MODEL SHOWING
ANY SNOW...AND SNOW APPEARING TO REMAIN IN CLEVELAND FORECAST AREA
WITH NO RADAR RETURNS FROM KPIT. SURFACE RIDGE WILL BRING DRY
AIR AND CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE NORTHEAST FROM TEXAS WHILE A NORTHERN
STREAM COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD ACROSS REGION LATER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND WILL LIKELY START AS A LIGHT MIX. AS DEEPER MOISTURE
ARRIVES THURSDAY MORNING WITH STRONG WARM ADVECTION ON FRONT SIDE OF
LOW THERE WILL BE A QUICK SWITCH TO ALL RAIN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.
ONLY A BRIEF PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIP EXPECTED.
MODELS ARE NOW BRINGING SURFACE LOW FARTHER WEST UP THE OHIO
VALLEY THURSDAY WITH A WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE NEW JERSEY COAST BY FRIDAY
MORNING WITH STEADY RAIN BECOMING MIXED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
TOWARD DAYBREAK FRIDAY AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND SURFACE LOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MIXED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY IN NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND
SURFACE LOW WRAPPING UP OFFSHORE OF NEW ENGLAND.
WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAM DEVELOPING A COLD TROUGH OVER
CENTRAL CANADA THIS WEEKEND, THE NORTHERN JET STREAM BRANCH WILL
PROMOTE ADDITIONAL PLAINS-BRED COLD FRONTS TO MOVE EASTWARD
THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY AND MONDAY.
REGARDING TEMPERATURE DETAILS, PER RECENT HPC GUIDANCE AND NAEFS
MODEL OUTPUT, FORECASTED A COOL DOWN IN TEMPERATURES IN THE WAKE OF
THURSDAY NIGHT`S SYSTEMS, WITH VALUES PERHAPS AS COLD AS 5 TO 10
DEGREES COLDER THAN NORMAL IN THE WAKE OF SATURDAY`S COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. HENCE WHATEVER PRECIPITATION COMES SUNDAY INTO EARLY
MONDAY, IT WILL BE SHOWERS OF SNOW RATHER THAN RAIN.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PER BLEND OF RECENT SURFACE AND SATELLITE DATA, COUPLED WITH
RECENT GFS LAMP AND NAM MODEL PROFILES, EXPECT COLD POOL
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD BANK ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TO LINGER
INTO EVENING. TREND SHOULD BE FOR MVFR CEILINGS TO LIFT TO VFR
LEVELS LATE THIS AFTERNOON, EXCEPT PERHAPS KFKL AND KDUJ. NAM MODEL
PROFILES SHOW STRONG CAPPING INVERSION AT 3-4 KFT AGL, SO NO
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE WEST SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS TO 20-25
KTS.
WINDS SUBSIDE TONIGHT AND CAPPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LOWERS TO
WHERE IT CAN TRANSFORM INTO A SURFACE RADIATIONAL INVERSION. WILL
FULLY CONSIDER IMPACT OF THIS WITH LATER TAF UPDATE. FOR NOW HAVE
REDEVELOPMENT OF MVFR STRATUS AFTER 06Z.
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
VFR WEDNESDAY. MIXED PRECIPITATION AND RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST FROM TEXAS. AN
ADDITIONAL PERIOD OF RESTRICTIONS IS POSSIBLE WITH A COLD FRONTAL
BAND OF SHOWERS SATURDAY.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
240 PM CST TUE JAN 24 2012
.DISCUSSION...
OVERALL THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN IS FAIRLY BENIGN WITH RESPECT TO
ITS IMPACT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER IN OUR AREA OVER THE UPCOMING WEEK.
WEST TO NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL PREDOMINATE... BRINGING PERIODIC
MOISTURE DEFICIENT SHORTWAVES THROUGH OUR AREA WHICH WILL
GENERALLY AMPLIFY ONCE THEY GET EAST OF OUR LONGITUDE.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE MOST PART...
WITH THE COLDEST PERIOD AND PERHAPS SOME BELOW NORMAL READINGS IN
STORE FOR SATURDAY INTO MONDAY. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR
DATA SHOW CLOUDS STREAMING IN FROM THE WEST AT THE CURRENT TIME...
AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH CAN BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR
MOVING INTO THE DAKOTAS. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW OBSERVATIONS OF
LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE... ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE
ACTIVITY IS STILL ALOFT AT THE CURRENT TIME. GIVEN THE LACK OF
GOOD MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE... THE 12Z GUIDANCE
FROM THE GFS AND NAM ARE UNDERSTANDABLY UNDERWHELMING IN THEIR
PRODUCTION OF PCPN AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING... ALTHOUGH ALL MANAGE TO SQUEEZE OUT A
LITTLE BIT OF PCPN GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF SOME DECENT ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND DPVA AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. THE HIGH RESOLUTION
SOLUTIONS... INCLUDING THE HRRR... ALSO SUGGEST A PERIOD OF SOME
LIGHT PCPN TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING... WITH A BETTER CO-LOCATION
OF SATURATION AND FORCING OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWFA.
RAISED POPS SOME WITH THIS SYSTEM... BUT KEPT THEM IN THE CHANCE
RANGE SINCE ALTHOUGH IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT IT WILL PRECIPITATE IT
IS STILL QUESTIONABLE AS TO WHETHER OR NOT IT WILL MEASURE.
ANOTHER SMALL CONCERN AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THOUGH TONIGHT IS
WHETHER THE ELEVATED WARM NOSE... WHICH LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE
AROUND 900-925MB... WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO CAUSE MELTING OF
HYDROMETEORS AS THEY DESCEND TO THE SURFACE. THE NAM IS THE MOST
BULLISH IN WARMING TEMPERATURES ALOFT... WHILE THE GFS AND RUC ARE
NOT AS STRONG WITH THE WARMING. THE UPSTREAM 12Z SOUNDING AT OMAHA
DEFINITELY SHOWED AN ABOVE FREEZING LAYER... SO THE QUESTION WILL
BE WHETHER IT IS ABLE TO COOL MUCH TOWARD THE WET BULB GIVEN THE
DRYNESS IN THE LAYER... OR IF MOISTURE ADVECTION OVERWHELMS THINGS
AND WE SIMPLY SEE THE WARM NOSE SATURATE WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURE. LOOKING AT THE UPSTREAM MIXING RATIOS IN THE
SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST ORIENTED AXIS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH... FEEL
THERE SHOULD BE A TENDENCY TO MOISTEN IN THAT LAYER QUITE A BIT...
SO THINK THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR AN ABOVE FREEZING WARM LAYER
FOR A TIME TONIGHT AS THE PCPN MOVES THROUGH... PARTICULARLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF I-90. WITH THAT IN MIND... INCLUDING A MENTION OF
SOME IP ALONG WITH SN OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA FOR TONIGHT.
ONCE TONIGHT/S SYSTEM GETS OUT OF OUR HAIR... THINGS LOOK TO BE
FAIR AND DRY THROUGH THURSDAY... WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR ANY
MEANINGFUL PCPN HOLDING OFF UNTIL FRIDAY. WARM ADVECTION WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO TOMORROW
EVENING... WITH A FRONTAL SLIDING ACROSS THE STATE TOMORROW NIGHT.
THIS FRONT IS THE ONE POTENTIAL PCPN PRODUCER PRIOR TO FRIDAY...
BUT AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO SEE
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WORK INTO THE AREA PRIOR TO ITS PASSAGE TO
WRING OUT ANY PCPN. IT/S POSSIBLE THAT LATER FORECASTS WILL NEED
TO INCLUDE SOME FLURRIES OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWFA FOR
TOMORROW NIGHT... BUT FOR NOW THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO STILL LOOKS
TO BE A DRY FROPA. A BRIEF COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE DROPS SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND NORTHWEST FLOW BRINGS A QUICK SHOT OF SOME MODIFIED
ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION. A SHORTWAVE THEN LOOKS TO SWING
THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY... WITH THE ECMWF AND GFS AND
REASONABLE AGREEMENT... ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS A BIT MORE
AMPLIFIED AND THEREFORE SLOWER AND ACCOMPANIED BY MORE IN THE WAY
OF PCPN. IN EITHER CASE... THERE LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH FORCING AND
DEEP LAYER SATURATION TO SUPPORT A MENTION OF POPS. UNFORTUNATELY
THE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND UNCERTAINTY REQUIRE BLANKETING A
LONGER PERIOD OF TIME WITH POPS THAN WHAT WILL EVENTUALLY OCCUR IN
REALITY... SO INCLUDED SOME CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW FROM FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA. LATER FORECASTS SHOULD
CERTAINLY BE ABLE TO NARROW AND FOCUS THIS TEMPORAL WINDOW ONCE
THINGS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.
A DECENT SLUG OF COLD AIR LOOKS TO DROP INTO THE REGION AFTER
SATURDAY/S SYSTEM MOVES BY... BUT IT WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS THE
GFS... ECMWF... AND THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE ALL SUPPORT THE IDEA
OF A SUBSTANTIAL RIDGE BUILDING TO OUR WEST BY THE SUNDAY-MONDAY
TIME FRAME. RETURN FLOW WILL START TO BRING IN WARMER TEMPERATURES
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RIDGE BY THE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY TIME
FRAME... WITH SOME PCPN POSSIBLY DEVELOPING IN THE AREA OF
ISENTROPIC ASCENT DURING THAT TIME FRAME. A SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED
PATTERN THEN LOOKS TO PERSIST INTO TUESDAY AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WORK TOWARD THE AREA. ALL OF THIS WINDS
UP LEADING TO THE INCLUSION OF SOME CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY... PARTICULARLY OVER THE
NORTHERN AND EASTERN PART OF THE CWFA WHERE BETTER SATURATION
ALONG THE SLOPED FRONTAL ZONE IS MORE LIKELY TO TAKE PLACE. IN
ADDITION... THINGS COULD CERTAINLY WARM ENOUGH BY MONDAY NIGHT OR
TUESDAY FOR SOME PTYPE ISSUES... SO INCLUDED SOME RN/SN MENTION BY
TUESDAY TO HIGHLIGHT THAT POSSIBILITY.
&&
.AVIATION.../18Z TAF ISSUANCE/
/ISSUED 1207 PM CST TUE JAN 24 2012/
LOW STRATUS HOLDING STRONG OVER THE AREA WITH A FEW BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS ENOUGH TO BRING COVERAGE TO SCT HERE AND THERE. LOW DECKS
WILL SCATTER OUT AND RISE TO VFR RANGES LATER THIS AFTN THROUGH
THIS EVE. OVERNIGHT...A WEAK SFC TROUGH ATTENDANT FROM A CDFNT
NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER WILL DROP THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN
APPROXIMATELY 06Z-12Z. SEVERAL HOURS OF MVFR CIGS CAN BE EXPECTED
ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS. PRECIP
CHCS ARE ONLY ARND 30 PERCENT SO HAVE KEPT A MORE OPTIMISTIC FCST
GOING ATTM. THOUGHT ABOUT POSSIBLY ADDING IN A PROB30 GROUP BUT AM
NOT EXPECTING ANY FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS TO DEGRADE VSBY LOWER
THAN 5-6SM AS MOISTURE IS PRETTY MEAGER AND DYNAMICS RATHER WEAK.
MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER THROUGH DAYBREAK THEN THE LOWER CIGS WILL
SCATTER OUT WHILE CIGS CONTINUE BETWEEN 5-10 KFT. NO WIND ISSUES.
MSP...CIGS HAVE DROPPED TO 1500FT OR BELOW DURING THE PAST HOUR
WITH SURROUNDING NEARBY SITES ALSO SHOWING CIGS 1500FT OR LOWER.
WITH SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE WESTERN CLOUD EDGE...WILL MAINTAIN THE
LOWER-RANGE MVFR CIGS FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE IMPROVING CONDS TO
VFR LATE THIS AFTN. AS A WEAK SFC TROUGH APPROACHES LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY TMRW MORNING...CLOUDS WILL LOWER BACK DOWN INTO MVFR
RANGE. THERE IS A SMALL CHC /30 PERCENT/ THAT FLURRIES OR SNOW
SHOWERS MAY PASS THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN APPROXIMATELY 06Z-12Z
BUT WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE AND WEAK DYNAMICS...DID NOT FEEL THIS
WARRANTED MENTION ATTM SO HAVE KEPT THE TAF DRY AND WILL LATER
LATER TAF ISSUANCES AND MODEL RUNS DETERMINE THE SCENARIO. AFTER
DAYBREAK...LOW CLOUDS SCATTER OUT AND LEAVE A VFR CIG IN PLACE
THROUGH THE DAY. NO WIND ISSUES.
OUTLOOK...
/WED NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT/...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO PREVAIL.
MAINLY VFR.
/FRI/...WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO DRIFT THROUGH THE AREA...
POSSIBLY BRINGING -SN AND MVFR CONDITIONS.
/FRI NIGHT THROUGH SUN/...HIGH PRESSURE TO PREVAIL. VFR.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
615 AM CST TUE JAN 24 2012
.UPDATE...
12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION ADDED BELOW.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
CLOUDINESS CONTINUES OVER MUCH OF THE FA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A
SMALL HOLE HAVING OPENED AROUND KSTC INTO THE TWIN CITIES. THE
CLOUDINESS SHOULD BREAKUP RATHER QUICKLY THIS MORNING AS THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW BECOMES ANTICYCLONIC. AN EXCEPTION WOULD BE OVER OUR WI
COUNTIES WHICH WILL TAKE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CONTINUED CLOSE
TO MOS FOR HIGHS TODAY GIVEN THE WARM START WE HAVE THIS MORNING.
THE FORECAST AHEAD IS STARTING TO TURN INTO A MESSY ONE. A FAST
WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL DELIVER A SHORT WAVE
ABOUT EVERY 24 TO 36 HOURS RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODEL RUNS
ARE ACTUALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT UNTIL ABOUT SUNDAY.
THE FIRST CONCERN IS A WAVE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THALER QG AND INSTANTANEOUS PRECIPITATION RATE WOULD FAVOR SOME
LIGHT QPF FROM SOUTHERN MN INTO WEST CENTRAL WI. SPC/NMM/ARW WRFS
ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH PATCHY 20 DBZ 1KM REF SHOWING UP. TIME-
HEIGHT DATA SHOWS SOME DIFFICULTY WITH THE LOW LEVEL
SATURATION...WHICH YIELDS A LOW AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION. ANOTHER
CONCERN IS A WARM NOSE AROUND 900 MB. BUFKIT DATA SUGGEST A BRIEF
PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE. BUT THE REAL SURPRISE IS THE
ECMWF WHICH HAS PRECIP ACROSS OUR ENTIRE CWA WITH UP TO 9
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH FROM KFSD THROUGH THE TWIN CITIES TO
NORTHERN WI. CONSENSUS WAS TO ADD SOME SMALL POPS FROM SOUTH
CENTRAL MN THROUGH THE TWIN CITIES AND ON ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WI
WHERE THE FORCING IS BEST. THE MAIN STUMBLING BLOCK IS WHETHER OR
NOT WE CAN SATURATE THE LOW LEVELS. IF THE ECMWF CONTINUES THIS
EXPANSION TODAY...THEN MUCH HIGHER POPS AND SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS WILL NEED TO BE ADDED.
THE NEXT WAVE IS ON THURSDAY...BUT PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE
MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF US. A STRONGER WAVE IS SHOWN TO PASS
ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. THE FORECAST CONTINUES WITH SMALL POP
CHANCES BUT ONCE AGAIN THE ECMWF IS MUCH STRONGER WITH UP TO TWO
TENTHS OF QPF ALONG WITH A NEARLY CLOSED H7 LOW PASSING ACROSS
CENTRAL MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI. THIS IS ANOTHER ONE THAT WILL NEED
TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY.
A TREND TO A COLDER NORTHWEST FLOW OCCURS FOR THE WEEKEND. SOME
LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES COULD OCCUR ON SATURDAY AS YET ANOTHER WAVE
MOVES THROUGH. KEPT MOST OF THE CWA DRY FOR NOW WITH SNOW CHANCES
IN PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL WI WHERE BETTER LAYER MOISTURE EXISTS.
TIMING DIFFERENCES REALLY SHOW UP BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF FROM
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH THE NEXT WAVE ALONG WITH IMPRESSIVE LOW
LEVEL WAA. THE GFS WOULD FAVOR A SWATH OF SNOW MOVING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE CWA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF WOULD
FAVOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. EITHER WAY...A COUPLE INCHES OF
SNOW WOULD BE POSSIBLE.
ALTHOUGH JUST BEYOND THIS FORECAST PERIOD...LONGER RANGE
PROJECTIONS FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST A LOW PRESSURE STORM
SYSTEM TRYING TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY WHICH COULD BRING BRING US... MORE SNOW... IF THIS
HAPPENS.
&&
.AVIATION.../12Z TAF ISSUANCE/
STRATUS CONTINUES TO HOLD STRONG ACROSS THE AREA AS LOW LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS HAS ONLY MADE IT TO THE WRN MN BORDER. COMPLICATING
THINGS A BIT THIS MORNING IS A NICE HOLE IN THE CLOUDS THAT IS
STARTING OUT OVER MSP/RNH. BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE
TRENDS...THE CLEARING WILL LIKELY SKIRT BY EAU TO THE WEST...WITH
RNH/MSP QUICKLY GOING BACK INTO MVFR CLOUDS AS BACK SIDE OF
STRATUS MOVES THROUGH. CONTINUED TO SLOW CLEARING OF STRATUS TO
THE EAST WITH 12Z TAFS...FOLLOWING THE 925MB RIDGE AXIS ON THE
GFS...WHICH DOES NOT CLEAR EAU UNTIL NEARLY 06Z. AFTER
THAT...CONCERNS TURN TO TONIGHT WHEN ANOTHER POTENTIAL BATCH OF
SNOW LOOKS TO COME UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST. BIG ISSUE WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE THE DRY LOW LEVELS OUT AHEAD OF IT AND THERE ARE
CONCERNS THAT IT WILL NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH MORE THAN VIRGA/FLURRIES.
AT THIS POINT...ADDED VCSH MENTION AT MSP/RNH/EAU...BUT SOME
PREVAILING SNOW COULD BE NEEDED IT IT DOES LOOK LIKE WE WILL BE
ABLE TO OVERCOME THE DRY AIR. FOR P-TYPE...IT WOULD BE ALL SNOW
FOR MPX TERMINALS...WITH ANY MIX CONFINED TO SRN MN.
KMSP...NEXT ROUND OF STRATUS TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST HAS HAD
SOLID MVFR CONDITIONS ALL NIGHT...SO EXPECT RESTRICTED CONDITIONS
TO RETURN AS CLEARING MOVES EAST. CIGS GENERALLY 010-015...SO MAY
GO BACK BELOW THE 017 MARK FOR A BIT THIS MORNING. RUC DOES NOT
TAKE THE 925 MB RIDGE AXIS EAST OF MSP UNTIL 21Z...SO PUSHED
STRATUS MENTION CLEAR OUT TO 20Z. BASED ON WRF REFLECTIVITY
FORECASTS...BEST WINDOW FOR -SN LOOKS TO BE IN THE 8Z TO 12Z
TIMEFRAME. FOR THE END OF THE TAF...NAM WOULD SAY LOW STRATUS WILL
FINISH OFF THE TAF THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...WHILE THE GFS
QUICKLY SCATTERS THINGS OUT BEHIND THE SNOW...WENT THE GFS
DIRECTION FOR NOW.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
RAH/MPG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
1247 PM EST TUE JAN 24 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA TODAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT TONIGHT AND SETTLE OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY. A
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY...BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE
CAROLINAS THURSDAY NIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM TUESDAY...
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT STILL LIES OVER THE FOOTHILLS THIS
MORNING...WITH A SLENDER RESIDUAL WEDGE AIRMASS LOCKED IN ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT. DEEP LAYER FLOW ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION IS ROUGHLY
PARALLEL TO THE FRONTAL ZONE...AND THE WEAK POSTFRONTAL SURFACE
HIGH IS STILL OVER THE MID MS VALLEY REGION. BASED ON THIS...THERE
IS VERY LITTLE FORCING TO PUSH THE FRONT EAST TODAY...AND THE
FOG/STRATUS THIS MORNING IS HAVING TO BURN OFF FROM THE TOP DOWN.
GIVEN THAT THE WEDGE AIRMASS HAS BEEN RELATIVELY IN PLACE FOR A
COUPLE OF DAYS NOW AND LOW LEVEL SATURATION IS STILL ABOUT 1500 FT
DEEP BASED ON THE 12Z RAOB FROM KGSO...THE FOG/STRATUS WILL BE
SLOPE TO ERODE...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE TRIAD AREA. VISIBILITIES OF
ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF MILE ARE COMMON THIS MORNING...EVEN AT
930AM. THEREFORE...THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL
NOON..THOUGH THERE WERE LIKELY BE SOME IMPROVEMENT ACROSS SOUTHERN
COUNTIES BY 11AM.
HIGHS WILL ALSO NEED TO BE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD IN AREAS WHERE FOG AND
STRATUS LINGER. THE 12Z HRRR APPEARS TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THE
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND ADJUST TEMPS WITH THE HRRR YIELDS
HIGHS IN THE MID 50S IN THE TRIAD TO MID 60S IN THE SOUTHEAST CWA.
TONIGHT:
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE OH VALLEY THIS
AFT/EVE IN ASSOCIATION WITH SYNOPTIC HEIGHT RISES/SUBSIDENCE IN THE
WAKE OF THE UPPER LOW TRACKING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES...BUILDING INTO CENTRAL NC FROM THE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH LINGERING LOW-LEVEL CLOUD COVER MAY STILL BE
PRESENT IN SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA AT SUNSET...CLEAR SKIES
ARE EXPECTED EVEN IN THE SOUTHEAST BY MIDNIGHT (AT LATEST) AS A
DRIER AIRMASS ADVECTS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. LOW TEMPS
WILL BE A FUNCTION OF BOTH RADIATIONAL COOLING AND COLD
ADVECTION...WITH 1000-850 MB THICKNESSES FALLING TO 1330-1340 METERS
FROM NW-SE BY 12Z WED MORNING. EXPECT LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE
LOWER/MID 30S IN THE N/NW PIEDMONT TO THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S IN THE
SOUTHEAST COASTAL PLAIN. -VINCENT
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 255 AM TUESDAY...
FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO GENERALLY
AGREE IN DEPICTING THE DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ~1030 MB TO EXTEND
OVER OUR REGION FROM THE NW ON WEDNESDAY... THEN SLOWLY SHIFT OFF TO
THE EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THURSDAY WILL BRING THE
APPROACH OF THE MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE GULF COAST STATES.
THIS LEADS TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A DRY DAY WEDNESDAY WITH A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE SW DURING THE DAY. HIGHS SHOULD
REACH THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. THE SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY
CLOUDY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE BECOMES MORE
EVIDENT ESPECIALLY IN THE MID LEVELS. LOWS WILL BE MILDER WITH
READINGS MOSTLY BETWEEN 40-45.
THURSDAY...THE COMBINATION OF THE APPROACHING MID-UPPER LEVEL STORM
ALONG WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM THE HIGH RETREATING
OFFSHORE WILL ALLOW FOR A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW OF DEEP
MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO CENTRAL NC BY LATE THURSDAY. MODELS ARE IN
GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT IN THAT THE RAIN WILL ARRIVE IN THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST PIEDMONT BY LATE AFTERNOON... WITH JUST A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN RAIN AREA MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM
FAYETTEVILLE TO RALEIGH DURING THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
TO HOLD OFF IN THE EAST UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGHS SHOULD EASILY
BUMP UP INTO THE 60S WITH 70 POSSIBLE FROM FAYETTEVILLE TO GOLDSBORO
IF WE GET A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 255 AM TUESDAY...
THE MODELS ARE TRENDING ON DAMPENING OUT/WEAKENING THE MID-UPPER
TROUGH...AND SPEEDING UP THE SYSTEM MOVEMENT THROUGH OUR REGION LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS HAS LED TO MODELS CUTTING BACK ON
THE QPF BY ABOUT HALF FROM THE TOTALS FORECAST BY THE OPERATIONAL EC
AND GFS 24 HOURS AGO. IN ADDITION...THE MAIN SURFACE LOW TRACK IS
NOW FORECAST TO BE UP ALONG THE MOUNTAINS...WITH A TRAILING COLD
FRONT TO PUSH EAST ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA FRIDAY.
24 HOURS AGO... THE MODELS INDICATED THE FORMATION OF ANOTHER WAVE
ON THE FRONT OVER CENTRAL NC. THEY HAVE SINCE BACKED OFF ON THIS
SCENARIO AS THE MID-UPPER WAVE IS NOW WEAKENING AND SPEEDING UP AS
IT MOVES OVER OUR REGION. REGARDLESS...A 6-12 HOUR PERIOD OF DEEP
MOISTURE INFLUX FROM THE GULF AND SUFFICIENT HEIGHT FALLS AND LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING A SIGNIFICANT
RAIN ON THE ORDER OF 0.5 TO POSSIBLY 1 INCH FOR THE EVENT.
SEVERE THREAT LOOKS MINIMAL WITH LITTLE TO NO CAPE AND MODERATE
SHEAR IN THE BAND OF SHOWERS. P-TYPE...ALL RAIN.
BEHIND THE SYSTEM...IT WILL BE MILD AND DRIER FRI NIGHT INTO SAT
NIGHT AWAITING A SHOT OF COLD AIR FOR SUNDAY. THIS SHOT OF COLD AIR
WILL BE BRIEF AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THIS ENTIRE LA NINA DRIVEN WINTER
SEASON FOR CENTRAL NC. STRONG CAA WILL LEAD TO THE CHILLIEST WEATHER
SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST AS THE HIGH
BUILDS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. WAA WILL BEGIN BY LATE MONDAY HERALDING
ANOTHER QUICK WARM-UP.
SENSIBLE WEATHER INCLUDES...
SHOWERS WEST AND DEVELOPING EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT. SHOWERS FRIDAY MORNING... ENDING FROM THE WEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. VERY MILD WITH LOWS IN THE 50S. HIGHS IN THE 60S FRIDAY.
MOSTLY CLEAR FRIDAY NIGHT AND COOLER. LOWS 30-35. MOSTLY SUNNY
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS 55-60. SUNDAY...PARTLY SUNNY BREEZY AND TURNING
COLDER. LOWS IN THE 30S. HIGHS IN THE 50S. CLEAR AND COLD SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. LOWS IN THE 20S. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 45-50 RANGE.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1245 PM TUESDAY...
CONDITIONS ARE FINALLY RETURNING TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG AND IFR/LIFR CEILINGS HAVE IMPROVED. A FEW
AREAS FROM WADESBORO TO LILLINGTON AND GOLDSBORO ARE STILL
REPORTING CEILINGS AROUND 1K FT...BUT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THIS CLOUD COVER SLOWLY ERODING ALSO. CLEAR SKIES SHOULD
PREVAIL BY MID-AFTERNOON. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD BACK
ACROSS THE TN VALLEY LATER TONIGHT AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM RAMPS
UP OVER THE SOUTHWEST US. LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL SLOW
TURN TO SOUTHERLY DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...BUT THE ARRIVAL OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL RETURN ON THURSDAY AS A STORM
SYSTEM LIFTS ACROSS THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...SMITH/VINCENT
SHORT TERM...BADGETT
LONG TERM...BADGETT
AVIATION...VINCENT/SMITH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
930 AM EST TUE JAN 24 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA TODAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT TONIGHT AND SETTLE OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY. A
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY...BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE
CAROLINAS THURSDAY NIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM TUESDAY...
...DENSE FOG ADVISORY EXTENDED UNTIL NOON...
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT STILL LIES OVER THE FOOTHILLS THIS
MORNING...WITH A SLENDER RESIDUAL WEDGE AIRMASS LOCKED IN ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT. DEEP LAYER FLOW ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SHORTWAVE
CROSSING THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION IS ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO THE
FRONTAL ZONE...AND THE WEAK POSTFRONTAL SURFACE HIGH IS STILL OVER
THE MID MS VALLEY REGION. BASED ON THIS...THERE IS VERY LITTLE
FORCING TO PUSH THE FRONT EAST TODAY...AND THE FOG/STRATUS THIS
MORNING IS HAVING TO BURN OFF FROM THE TOP DOWN. GIVEN THAT THE
WEDGE AIRMASS HAS BEEN RELATIVELY IN PLACE FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS NOW
AND LOW LEVEL SATURATION IS STILL ABOUT 1500 FT DEEP BASED ON THE
12Z RAOB FROM KGSO...THE FOG/STRATUS WILL BE SLOPE TO
ERODE...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE TRIAD AREA. VISIBILITIES OF ONE
QUARTER TO ONE HALF MILE ARE COMMON THIS MORNING...EVEN AT 930AM.
THEREFORE...THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL
NOON..THOUGH THERE WERE LIKELY BE SOME IMPROVEMENT ACROSS SOUTHERN
COUNTIES BY 11AM.
HIGHS WILL ALSO NEED TO BE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD IN AREAS WHERE FOG AND
STRATUS LINGER. THE 12Z HRRR APPEARS TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THE
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND ADJUST TEMPS WITH THE HRRR YIELDS
HIGHS IN THE MID 50S IN THE TRIAD TO MID 60S IN THE SOUTHEAST CWA.
TONIGHT:
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE OH VALLEY THIS
AFT/EVE IN ASSOCIATION WITH SYNOPTIC HEIGHT RISES/SUBSIDENCE IN THE
WAKE OF THE UPPER LOW TRACKING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES...BUILDING INTO CENTRAL NC FROM THE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH LINGERING LOW-LEVEL CLOUD COVER MAY STILL BE
PRESENT IN SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA AT SUNSET...CLEAR SKIES
ARE EXPECTED EVEN IN THE SOUTHEAST BY MIDNIGHT (AT LATEST) AS A
DRIER AIRMASS ADVECTS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. LOW TEMPS
WILL BE A FUNCTION OF BOTH RADIATIONAL COOLING AND COLD
ADVECTION...WITH 1000-850 MB THICKNESSES FALLING TO 1330-1340 METERS
FROM NW-SE BY 12Z WED MORNING. EXPECT LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE
LOWER/MID 30S IN THE N/NW PIEDMONT TO THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S IN THE
SOUTHEAST COASTAL PLAIN. -VINCENT
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 255 AM TUESDAY...
FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO GENERALLY
AGREE IN DEPICTING THE DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ~1030 MB TO EXTEND
OVER OUR REGION FROM THE NW ON WEDNESDAY... THEN SLOWLY SHIFT OFF TO
THE EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THURSDAY WILL BRING THE
APPROACH OF THE MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE GULF COAST STATES.
THIS LEADS TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A DRY DAY WEDNESDAY WITH A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE SW DURING THE DAY. HIGHS SHOULD
REACH THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. THE SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY
CLOUDY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE BECOMES MORE
EVIDENT ESPECIALLY IN THE MID LEVELS. LOWS WILL BE MILDER WITH
READINGS MOSTLY BETWEEN 40-45.
THURSDAY...THE COMBINATION OF THE APPROACHING MID-UPPER LEVEL STORM
ALONG WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM THE HIGH RETREATING
OFFSHORE WILL ALLOW FOR A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW OF DEEP
MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO CENTRAL NC BY LATE THURSDAY. MODELS ARE IN
GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT IN THAT THE RAIN WILL ARRIVE IN THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST PIEDMONT BY LATE AFTERNOON... WITH JUST A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN RAIN AREA MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM
FAYETTEVILLE TO RALEIGH DURING THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
TO HOLD OFF IN THE EAST UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGHS SHOULD EASILY
BUMP UP INTO THE 60S WITH 70 POSSIBLE FROM FAYETTEVILLE TO GOLDSBORO
IF WE GET A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 255 AM TUESDAY...
THE MODELS ARE TRENDING ON DAMPENING OUT/WEAKENING THE MID-UPPER
TROUGH...AND SPEEDING UP THE SYSTEM MOVEMENT THROUGH OUR REGION LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS HAS LED TO MODELS CUTTING BACK ON
THE QPF BY ABOUT HALF FROM THE TOTALS FORECAST BY THE OPERATIONAL EC
AND GFS 24 HOURS AGO. IN ADDITION...THE MAIN SURFACE LOW TRACK IS
NOW FORECAST TO BE UP ALONG THE MOUNTAINS...WITH A TRAILING COLD
FRONT TO PUSH EAST ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA FRIDAY.
24 HOURS AGO... THE MODELS INDICATED THE FORMATION OF ANOTHER WAVE
ON THE FRONT OVER CENTRAL NC. THEY HAVE SINCE BACKED OFF ON THIS
SCENARIO AS THE MID-UPPER WAVE IS NOW WEAKENING AND SPEEDING UP AS
IT MOVES OVER OUR REGION. REGARDLESS...A 6-12 HOUR PERIOD OF DEEP
MOISTURE INFLUX FROM THE GULF AND SUFFICIENT HEIGHT FALLS AND LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING A SIGNIFICANT
RAIN ON THE ORDER OF 0.5 TO POSSIBLY 1 INCH FOR THE EVENT.
SEVERE THREAT LOOKS MINIMAL WITH LITTLE TO NO CAPE AND MODERATE
SHEAR IN THE BAND OF SHOWERS. P-TYPE...ALL RAIN.
BEHIND THE SYSTEM...IT WILL BE MILD AND DRIER FRI NIGHT INTO SAT
NIGHT AWAITING A SHOT OF COLD AIR FOR SUNDAY. THIS SHOT OF COLD AIR
WILL BE BRIEF AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THIS ENTIRE LA NINA DRIVEN WINTER
SEASON FOR CENTRAL NC. STRONG CAA WILL LEAD TO THE CHILLIEST WEATHER
SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST AS THE HIGH
BUILDS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. WAA WILL BEGIN BY LATE MONDAY HERALDING
ANOTHER QUICK WARM-UP.
SENSIBLE WEATHER INCLUDES...
SHOWERS WEST AND DEVELOPING EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT. SHOWERS FRIDAY MORNING... ENDING FROM THE WEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. VERY MILD WITH LOWS IN THE 50S. HIGHS IN THE 60S FRIDAY.
MOSTLY CLEAR FRIDAY NIGHT AND COOLER. LOWS 30-35. MOSTLY SUNNY
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS 55-60. SUNDAY...PARTLY SUNNY BREEZY AND TURNING
COLDER. LOWS IN THE 30S. HIGHS IN THE 50S. CLEAR AND COLD SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. LOWS IN THE 20S. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 45-50 RANGE.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 650 AM TUESDAY...
24-HR TAF PERIOD:
DIFFICULT FORECAST WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY THROUGH THE
FIRST 6-12 HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD. AS OF 12Z...LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS
WERE REPORTED AT MOST OF THE CENTRAL NC TAF SITES AND THE WEDGE
FRONT WAS LOCATED 25-50 MILES SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE FAY TERMINAL. A
COLD FRONT LOCATED IN WESTERN NC/SC AT 12Z THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY
PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL NC TODAY. A DRIER AIRMASS ADVECTING
INTO THE CAROLINAS BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG WITH DIURNAL HEATING/
MIXING SHOULD HELP TO ERODE THE CAD WEDGE AND ALLOW CONDITIONS TO
IMPROVE FROM LIFR/IFR TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY VFR FROM NW-SE TODAY.
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE FIRST AT INT/GSO...FOLLOWED BY RDU/RWI
AND FINALLY THE FAY TERMINAL. THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY SEPARATED FROM THE PARENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TODAY...AND AS A RESULT...THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE THROUGH
CENTRAL NC AND CONDITIONS MAY BE SLOW TO IMPROVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THE FAY TAF SITE. THE 12Z TAFS IMPROVE
CONDITIONS TO VFR AT INT/GSO BY 16Z...RDU/RWI BY 17Z...AND FAY BY
21Z. REGARDLESS...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS BY 21-00Z THIS EVENING
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A
POTENTIAL FOR SUB-VFR FOG AT THE FAY TERMINAL BETWEEN SUNSET AND
~04Z TONIGHT BEFORE A DRIER AIRMASS ARRIVES FROM THE NORTHWEST.
LOOKING AHEAD:
VFR CONDITIONS ASSOC/W HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO/OVER THE AREA ARE
EXPECTED TO RULE THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK EAST INTO THE
LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
APPROACHING THE CAROLINAS FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE THURSDAY OR THURSDAY EVENING AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT...WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN AND IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS LIKELY
THU NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. -VINCENT
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TUESDAY FOR
NCZ007>010-021>026-038>041-073>077-083>086.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT/SMITH
SHORT TERM...BADGETT
LONG TERM...BADGETT
AVIATION...VINCENT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
105 AM EST TUE JAN 24 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH SOME
LIGHT RAIN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FROM LATE TUESDAY THROUGH MID
WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH EARLY ON
FRIDAY WHILE A MORE POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE
GULF COAST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. COLD AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 930 PM MONDAY...MAIN DILEMMA CONTINUES WITH THE FOG...ITS
OCCURRENCE AND INTENSITY. THE FSI INDEX...WITH 00Z RAOBS AND VARIOUS
SFC 00Z TEMPS/DEWPOINTS INPUTS FOR VARIOUS SPOTS ACROSS THE ILM CWA
INDICATE DENSE FOG A POSSIBILITY TONIGHT. THE WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE SLOWLY EASTWARD MOVING FRONT...MAY JUST BE
ENOUGH TO CURTAIL THE WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG. NEVERTHELESS...HAVE
UPDATED ZONES TO INCREASE FOG COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. WILL ISSUE AN
SPS TO HIGHLIGHT THE FOG WITH ISOLATED DENSE IN SOME LOCATIONS. THIS
BASICALLY IS 1 STEP SHY OF ISSUING A DENSE FOG ADV. AS MENTIONED
EARLIER HAVE INDICATED ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED SHRA FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT VIA LATEST 88D TRENDS...AND HRRR AND NAM
MODELS INPUT. MIN TEMPS OVERNIGHT TO MORE OR LESS HOLD STEADY WITH
CURRENT VALUES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...COLD FRONT CROSSING THE ILM CWA TUESDAY
CREATES THE ONLY PRECIP THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS THEREAFTER HIGH
PRESSURE AND UPPER RIDGING TAKE OVER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
SHORT TERM.
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY CROSSING THROUGH AL/TN APPROACHES THE COASTAL
CAROLINAS EARLY TUESDAY. A BAND OF PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES EAST...AND SHOWERS WILL OCCUR
FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY MORNING. SPC STILL HIGHLIGHTS THE CAPE
FEAR REGION IN A "SEE TEXT" IN SWODY1 (ENDING AT 7AM TUESDAY...BUT
LIKELY LINGERING INTO THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD)...BUT FEEL
SEVERE THREAT IS QUITE LIMITED. IN FACT...EXPECT PRIMARILY
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS WITH VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF TSTMS. ALTHOUGH
SOME SURFACE INSTABILITY DEVELOPS ALONG THE COAST COINCIDENT WITH
SOME ENHANCED THETA-E AIR...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MOST
UNSTABLE AIR WILL BE ELEVATED...ABOVE 850-900MB. ADDITIONALLY...LOW
LEVEL JET MAX PASSES NORTH OF THE ILM CWA...LEAVING ONLY 30-35 KTS
OF WIND ALOFT...AND OMEGA IS RATHER MINIMAL. STILL...IF ANY
ENHANCED LIFT CAN BREAK THE WEAK INVERSION PRESENT AROUND
950MB...PARCELS COULD ACCELERATE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME THUNDER.
WILL KEEP ONLY SHOWERS AS WX TYPE HOWEVER. SREF 3-HR PROBS PEAK
ONLY AT 50-70% FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP FROM 7AM-10AM SO WILL CAP POP
AT CHANCE ACROSS PENDER/NH/BRUNSWICK COUNTIES...WITH SCHC EAST OF
I-95. ALL PRECIP MOVES OFFSHORE BY LATE MORNING.
COLD FRONT LAGS BEHIND...WITH WINDS BECOMING NW BY LATE AFTN AND
SKY CONDITIONS CLEARING AS COLUMN DRIES. CAA DOESN`T OCCUR UNTIL
LATE TUESDAY...SO WITH UPPER RIDGING DEVELOPING...SOME DOWNSLOPE
COMPONENT TO THE WINDS...AND 850MB TEMPS AROUND 11C...EXPECT TEMPS
TO SOAR TO AROUND 70 TUESDAY AFTN. WEAK CAA TUESDAY NIGHT THEN
DROPS TEMPS TO THE LOWER 40S. WEAK WAA ALOFT RETURNS WEDNESDAY BUT
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN FROM THE NORTH CREATES COOLER NE FLOW.
EXPECT A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 60S. RETURN
FLOW SETS UP LATE WEDNESDAY CAUSING INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND MINS
A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...1200 UTC OPERATIONAL GFS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH HPC GRAPHICS WHICH CONSIST MOSTLY OF A BLEND OF THE ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MEAN AND THE OPERATIONAL MODEL. HAVE FOLLOWED THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED GFS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD. THE
MAIN SYSTEM IS THE CUTOFF LOW MOVING ACROSS THE GULF COAST
THURSDAY AND GETTING EJECTED FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. AT THE
SURFACE A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY WITH THE
MAIN SURFACE LOW MOVING INLAND FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. HAVE
HIGHLIGHTED THE HIGHEST POPS FOR 1200-1800 UTC FRIDAY WITH SHOWERS
THE MAIN NATURE OF THE RAINFALL. LIGHTNING LOOKS UNLIKELY AT THIS
POINT AS THERE IS NO CAPE ABOVE THE FREEZING LEVEL ON SOUNDINGS. A
BIT PREMATURE TO BE TALKING ABOUT QPF BUT THE GFS DOES PAINT
ALMOST THREE INCHES OF STORM TOTAL RAINFALL ACROSS MOST AREAS BY
0600 UTC SATURDAY SO AT LEAST THE CHANCE IS THERE FOR A
SIGNIFICANT EVENT. FINALLY ARCTIC FRONT MOVES ACROSS LATE SATURDAY
WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES PLUNGING BRIEFLY BELOW ZERO DEGREES C.
MONDAY MORNING LOOKS THE COLDEST HOWEVER WITH BETTER RADIATIONAL
COOLING.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...SURFACE CONDITIONS SUBJECT TO LARGE SWINGS DUE TO LOW
STRATUS AND FOG. A WARM FRONT HAS MOVED NORTH OF ALL THE TERMINALS
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
GIVEN CURRENT CONDITIONS...CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE...AND LATE EVE
TRENDS...WILL HIT FOG AND STRATUS HARDEST AT KCRE...FORECASTING IFR
OR LOWER CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY AS SEA FOG POTENTIAL IS
HIGHEST HERE GIVEN PREVAILING WIND DIRECTION. ELSEWHERE ALONG THE
COAST...POTENTIAL FOR SEA FOG IS NOT AS HIGH...BUT WILL FORECAST
TEMPO IFR OR LOWER AT KMYR FROM ABOUT 07-13Z. WILL CLOSELY MONITOR
TRENDS AT KILM...BUT AT THIS TIME WILL FORECAST MVFR BR AND SCT
STRATUS...KEEPING CEILING IN VFR CATEGORY. INLAND...CONDITIONS
SHOULD DETERIORATE AND WILL INCLUDE TEMPO IFR OR LOWER CEILINGS
09-13Z...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. WILL
INCLUDE VCSH AT KILM FROM 08-13Z SINCE RISK IS A LITTLE GREATER THAN
AT THE OTHER TERMINALS. BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...EXPECT VFR
THROUGHOUT AS DRIER AIR VERY SLOWLY WORKS INTO THE AREA.
LIGHT SSW WINDS WILL VERY GRADUALLY VEER TO W AND THEN TO THE N.
FRONT WILL COME THROUGH IN PIECES...FIRST AT KLBT AND KFLO AS FRONT
REACHES THAT AREA EARLY TO MID MORNING AND NOT TIL AFTERNOON AT THE
COAST. WINDS MAY NOT GO AROUND TO N TIL THIS EVE.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...LOW CONFIDENCE IFR WEDNESDAY. GOOD CHANCE OF
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS/TEMPO IFR FRIDAY. VFR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 PM MONDAY...HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE SLOWLY VEERING SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AT 10 TO 15 KT OVERNIGHT. THE 15 KT SPEEDS WILL
OCCUR ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE SSTS ARE IN
THE LOWER 60S. SSTS IN THE 50S NEAR SHORE WILL LIMIT MIXING FROM
ALOFT...AND THUS HOLDING WIND SPEEDS IN THE 10 TO OCCASIONALLY 15
KT. FORECASTING SEA FOG WITH LOW TO MID 60S SFC DEW POINTS
ADVECTING ACROSS THE WATERS THIS TIME OF THE YEAR IS USUALLY A
NO-BRAINER. BUT THIS YEAR...SSTS ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING A GOOD 4 TO 6
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ILM COASTAL WATERS. FOR
NOW...HAVE INDICATED PATCHY SEA FOG REDUCING VSBY TO 1 NM OR LESS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT. SEAS TO RUN IN THE 2 TO 4 FT
RANGE OVERNIGHT...WITH WATERS BEYOND 20 NM OFF CAPE FEAR SEEING 5
FOOTERS DUE TO THE HIGHER WINDS OVER THE MILDER OFFSHORE WATERS. 1
TO OCCASIONALLY 2 FOOT 9-11 SECOND EASTERLY SWELL TO MIX WITH
LOCALLY PRODUCED WIND WAVES OF 2 TO 3 FEET AT 4 TO 6 SECOND PERIODS.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE WATERS TUESDAY
CREATES A TIGHTENED GRADIENT AND SW WINDS OF 10-15 KTS DURING THE
MORNING. OTHER THAN A FEW SHOWERS TUESDAY MORNING...COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE WATERS WITH LITTLE FANFARE OTHER THAN A WIND SHIFT TO THE
WEST BY EVENING...AND NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT. SEAS OF 3-4 FT INITIALLY
WILL SLOWLY FALL TO 2-3 FT BY NIGHTFALL. EVEN WITH LOW AMPLITUDE
WAVE HEIGHTS...SOME CONFUSED SEAS ARE LIKELY TUESDAY WITH SW WIND
WAVES OVERLAYING A RESIDUAL WEAK NE SWELL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
WATERS NORTH OF CAPE FEAR. NW WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS WILL INCREASE
AGAIN TO 15 KTS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY DUE TO A COOL SURGE
OVER THE WATERS. THIS WILL PICK SEAS BACK UP TO 3-4 FT FOR A SHORT
TIME...BEFORE FALLING ONCE AGAIN LATE WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN LATER THURSDAY ACROSS
ALL WATERS AND INCREASE IN MAGNITUDE EARLY FRIDAY AS A DECENT STORM
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. WARM ADVECTION OVER THE COLDER WATERS
WILL LIMIT TRANSFER OF STRONGER WINDS TO THE SURFACE KEEPING VALUES
JUST BELOW THE SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA OF 25 KNOTS FOR THE MOST PART. I
DO HAVE A BRIEF WINDOW OF 25 PLUS KNOTS EARLY SATURDAY AS THE LOW
LEVEL JET MAX MOVES ACROSS. NORTHERLY FLOW SETS UP ACROSS ALL WATERS
BY 1200 UTC SATURDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OFF RAPIDLY TO THE
NORTHEAST. SEAS WILL INCREASE FROM 2-3 FEET THURSDAY TO 5-8 FEET
LATER FRIDAY BEFORE GETTING WORKED OVER BY THE OFFSHORE FLOW
SATURDAY.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...DOUGH
SHORT TERM...JOSHUAW
LONG TERM...STEPHENK
AVIATION...SGL/RJD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
513 PM EST TUE JAN 24 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. A DEVELOPING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...BRINGING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO THE
OHIO VALLEY. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT AND THEN HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL RETURN ON FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A STUBBORN AREA OF LOW STRATUS WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION FOR AT
LEAST THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LATEST RUC GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THESE
CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO GRADUALLY ERODE LATER THIS EVENING AS A 500
MB RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE MS VALLEY PUSHES A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVER EASTERN CANADA FURTHER DOWNSTREAM. MEANWHILE...SFC HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR WILL BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
THIS EVENING...AND THE HIGH WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER THE REGION
OVERNIGHT.
SOME AREAS MAY EVEN BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR FOR A SHORT TIME TONIGHT
AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AS THE HIGH DRIFTS OVERHEAD. THUS...
EXPECTING DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT AND STUCK CLOSE TO
MOS GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPS WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER 20S IN THE
NORTH AND IN THE UPPER 20S ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL RAPIDLY ADVANCE INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF TO
THE SOUTHWEST. DESPITE A COOL START TO THE DAY AND SKIES BECOMING
MOSTLY CLOUDY BY AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER
THAN ON TUESDAY AS WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS. STUCK CLOSE TO
MOS GUIDANCE AGAIN FOR HIGHS WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S NORTH
TO LOWER 40S SOUTH.
INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST CWA BY 18Z
WEDNESDAY AS LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO PUSH PRECIP INTO
THE AREA WELL AHEAD OF THE ACTUAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. HOWEVER...BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
AS ISENTROPIC LIFT STRENGTHENS AND A SLOW MOVING FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE LOW APPROACHES...AND THE
LATEST ECMWF...NAM AND GFS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LOW TRACKING
NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN OH INTO WESTERN PA BY THURSDAY NIGHT.
HIGHEST QPF IS PLACED ACROSS SOUTHERN HALF OF CWA WITH THE LATEST
NAM/GFS BOTH SUGGESTING AROUND AN INCH. AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE OHIO RIVER WILL LIKELY SEE LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO AROUND
1.25 INCHES. THERE STILL REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...BUT WITH THE GROUND STILL VERY MOIST FROM
RECENT RAINFALL...MINOR FLOODING OF SOME AREA CREEKS AND STREAMS
WOULD BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL.
TEMPERATURE PROFILES INDICATE THAT PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS RAIN
IN THE SOUTH...BUT AREAS NORTH OF I-70 COULD SEE A BIT OF LIGHT
SNOW MIX IN WITH THE RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
A NEARLY ISOTHERMAL LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE PROFILE HOVERING RIGHT
AROUND FREEZING IN THE FAR NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SO A VERY BRIEF
PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN CANNOT BE RULED OUT ENTIRELY AT
THIS POINT FOR SOME AREAS IN THE FAR NORTH. DID NOT INCLUDE
MENTION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT DUE TO LINGERING UNCERTAINTY.
AS TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW FREEZING BEHIND A COLD FRONT THURSDAY
NIGHT...ANY LINGERING RAIN WILL LIKELY MIX WITH AND CHANGE OVER TO
SOME LIGHT SNOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END EARLY FRIDAY WITH THE LOW MOVING
RAPIDLY EASTWARD AWAY FROM OUR AREA. A WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD IN
PLACE BRIEFLY ON FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. AFTER THAT...A DEEP
UPPER LOW WILL SPIN SOUTHEASTWARD OVER ONTARIO. THIS WILL HELP
USHER IS AN ARCTIC AIRMASS OVER OUR REGION. MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...WHILE KEEPING THE LOW NEARLY STATIONARY
OVER SOUTHERN CANADA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
BREEZY AND COLD WEEKEND FOR OUR FORECAST AREA...WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL PIVOT AROUND THE LOW...WHICH
COULD PRODUCE INTERMITTENT LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY.
THE LOW OVER SOUTHERN CANADA IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD BY
MONDAY. RIDGING WILL THEN BUILD IN ITS PLACE...WITH A WARMING TREND
AND FAIR WEATHER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. A STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS MAY BRING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ON
TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AREA OF STUBBORN STRATUS CONTINUES TO LINGER ACROSS THE TAFS EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. SFC HIGH AND H5 RIDGE WILL BUILD IN LATER THIS
AFTN...BUT SOME OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT THE ST
WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE. LATEST SATELLITE LOOP IS SHOWING THE DEEPER
LOW CLOUDS ARE LIFTING FROM N TO S ACROSS NW OHIO...BUT MVFR CIGS
AROUND 2500 FT STILL REMAIN. AS WAA PICKS UP OVERNIGHT...EXPECT
THESE HIGH MVFR CLOUDS TO ERODE. AS FOR THE LOWER MVFR CIGS AFFECTING
THE TAFS...TIMING THE BACK EDGE WOULD BRING THEM INTO DAY/CMH AROUND
02Z...AND CVG/LUK AROUND 09Z. THIS MATCHES THE 12Z NAM12 H9 RH
FORECAST. THIS TIMING SEEMS REASONABLE FOR DAY/CMH...BUT TOO LONG
FOR CVG. THINK THAT AS WAA PICKS UP AFT 00Z THAT THE ST WILL ALSO
BEGIN TO ERODE FROM THE SW....SO SCT THE MVFR CIGS OUT BY 04Z IN
CVG/LUK.
MODELS ARE SHOWING AN INCREASE IN H3 MOISTURE AFT 00Z. NEVER SURE
IF THIS WILL SHOW UP AS A BKN CI DECK OR NOT...SO WENT WITH SCT
CI. AFT 12Z H5 MOISTURE ROLLS IN SO BROUGHT IN THE BKN CI THEN.
MODELS BRING OVERRUNNING LIFT IN DURING THE 24-30HR PORTION OF THE
CVG TAF. INTRODUCED A VCSH AFT 22Z TO COVER THE BEGINNING OF THE
PCPN DEVELOPMENT.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH
CONDITIONS AS LOW AS IFR POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KURZ
NEAR TERM...KURZ
SHORT TERM...KURZ
LONG TERM...LATTO
AVIATION...SITES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
104 PM EST TUE JAN 24 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY...PROVIDING A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER. LOW PRESSURE
TRAVELING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING PRECIPITATION LATE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE
BACK IN ON FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK S/W ROTATING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AROUND CLOSED H5 LOW IS
ENHANCING WRAP AROUND CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION. LATEST SATELLITE
LOOP IS SHOWING GOOD EXPANSE OF CLOUDS BACK TO THE W AND LATEST
RUNS OF THE NAM12 AND RUC13 ARE SHOWING THAT THE H9 MOISTURE WILL
LINGER INTO THE EVENING.
SO INCREASED THE CLOUD COVER FOR THIS AFTERNOON. WENT CLOUDY IN
THE N AND BECOMING CLOUDY IN THE S AND SE.
CURRENT TEMPERATURE FORECAST STILL LOOKED OK...SO NO CHANGES
THERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...PROVIDING
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LOWS IN THE 20S. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL
MOVE IN ON WEDNESDAY WELL AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE...WHICH WILL
CURTAIL SUNSHINE BY AFTERNOON. THE INCREASING CLOUDS AFTER A COOL
START WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN ON
TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY ALONG
AN AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHWEST.
THE PRECIPITATION WILL EXTEND UP THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH SOUTHERN
COUNTIES RECEIVING THE MOST. TEMPERATURE PROFILES INDICATE THAT
SNOW WILL MIX IN NORTH OF CINCINNATI AND PORTSMOUTH...BUT THE BULK
OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN NEAR THE OHIO
RIVER. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO 40 OR HIGHER ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WHICH WILL CHANCE ALL LINGERING PRECIPITATION TO RAIN.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY. MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH THIS
BOUNDARY SO CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IS LOW. LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT A SECONDARY TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH ON SUNDAY. BUT
TIMING FEATURES IN FAST NORTHWEST FLOW THAT FAR OUT IN TIME IS
PROBLEMATIC. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO START BUILDING IN ON
MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL EXCEPT OVER THE WEEKEND
WHEN THEY WILL COOL DOWN CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AREA OF STUBBORN STRATUS CONTINUES TO LINGER ACROSS THE TAFS EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. SFC HIGH AND H5 RIDGE WILL BUILD IN LATER THIS
AFTN...BUT SOME OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT THE ST
WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE. LATEST SATELLITE LOOP IS SHOWING THE DEEPER
LOW CLOUDS ARE LIFTING FROM N TO S ACROSS NW OHIO...BUT MVFR CIGS
AROUND 2500 FT STILL REMAIN. AS WAA PICKS UP OVERNIGHT...EXPECT
THESE HIGH MVFR CLOUDS TO ERODE. AS FOR THE LOWER MVFR CIGS AFFECTING
THE TAFS...TIMING THE BACK EDGE WOULD BRING THEM INTO DAY/CMH AROUND
02Z...AND CVG/LUK AROUND 09Z. THIS MATCHES THE 12Z NAM12 H9 RH
FORECAST. THIS TIMING SEEMS REASONABLE FOR DAY/CMH...BUT TOO LONG
FOR CVG. THINK THAT AS WAA PICKS UP AFT 00Z THAT THE ST WILL ALSO
BEGIN TO ERODE FROM THE SW....SO SCT THE MVFR CIGS OUT BY 04Z IN
CVG/LUK.
MODELS ARE SHOWING AN INCREASE IN H3 MOISTURE AFT 00Z. NEVER SURE
IF THIS WILL SHOW UP AS A BKN CI DECK OR NOT...SO WENT WITH SCT
CI. AFT 12Z H5 MOISTURE ROLLS IN SO BROUGHT IN THE BKN CI THEN.
MODELS BRING OVERRUNNING LIFT IN DURING THE 24-30HR PORTION OF THE
CVG TAF. INTRODUCED A VCSH AFT 22Z TO COVER THE BEGINNING OF THE
PCPN DEVELOPMENT.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH
CONDITIONS AS LOW AS IFR POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...SITES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
954 AM EST TUE JAN 24 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY...PROVIDING A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER. LOW PRESSURE
TRAVELING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING PRECIPITATION LATE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE
BACK IN ON FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK S/W ROTATING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AROUND CLOSED H5 LOW IS
ENHANCING WRAP AROUND CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION. LATEST SATELLITE
LOOP IS SHOWING GOOD EXPANSE OF CLOUDS BACK TO THE W AND LATEST
RUNS OF THE NAM12 AND RUC13 ARE SHOWING THAT THE H9 MOISTURE WILL
LINGER INTO THE EVENING.
SO INCREASED THE CLOUD COVER FOR THIS AFTERNOON. WENT CLOUDY IN
THE N AND BECOMING CLOUDY IN THE S AND SE.
CURRENT TEMPERATURE FORECAST STILL LOOKED OK...SO NO CHANGES
THERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...PROVIDING
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LOWS IN THE 20S. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL
MOVE IN ON WEDNESDAY WELL AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE...WHICH WILL
CURTAIL SUNSHINE BY AFTERNOON. THE INCREASING CLOUDS AFTER A COOL
START WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN ON
TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY ALONG
AN AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHWEST.
THE PRECIPITATION WILL EXTEND UP THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH SOUTHERN
COUNTIES RECEIVING THE MOST. TEMPERATURE PROFILES INDICATE THAT
SNOW WILL MIX IN NORTH OF CINCINNATI AND PORTSMOUTH...BUT THE BULK
OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN NEAR THE OHIO
RIVER. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO 40 OR HIGHER ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WHICH WILL CHANCE ALL LINGERING PRECIPITATION TO RAIN.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY. MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH THIS
BOUNDARY SO CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IS LOW. LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT A SECONDARY TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH ON SUNDAY. BUT
TIMING FEATURES IN FAST NORTHWEST FLOW THAT FAR OUT IN TIME IS
PROBLEMATIC. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO START BUILDING IN ON
MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL EXCEPT OVER THE WEEKEND
WHEN THEY WILL COOL DOWN CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DEEP LOW PRESSURE N OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK N
INTO CANADA TODAY. EXTENSIVE FIELD OF CLOUDS EXISTS AROUND THIS
LOW IN THE LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW ACRS THE GREAT LAKES/OH VLY.
THIS MVFR SC DECK WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
THROUGH THE DAY BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE REGION TONIGHT.
LATEST SATL IMGRY SHOWS TEMPORARY CLEAR WEDGE OVER I-71 CORRIDOR BUT
MORE CLOUDS UPSTREAM BACK ACRS SRN INDIANA. CONTINUE TO SLOW THE
CLEARING PROGRESS BASED ON TRENDS WITH KCVG/KLUK SCATTERING OUT
AROUND 15Z...BUT KEPT CLOUDS IN KDAY THRU MIDDAY AND AT KCMH/KLCK
UNTIL MID AFTN. EXPECT GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AND LIGHT WINDS
WITH THE SFC HIGH BUILDING IN.
OUTLOOK...IFR CONDITIONS MAY ACCOMPANY SNOW AND RAIN ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...AR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
636 AM EST TUE JAN 24 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...PROVIDING A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER. LOW PRESSURE
TRAVELING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING PRECIPITATION LATE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE
BACK IN ON FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE WEST WILL MOVE INTO THE ILN AREA
TODAY. CLOUDS WILL PERSIST OVER NORTHERN COUNTIES INTO THIS
AFTERNOON UNTIL MOISTURE MOVES EAST AS PER LATEST RUC 1000-850MB
RELATIVE HUMIDITY. NUDGED TEMPERATURES UP SLIGHTLY TOWARD MAV
GUIDANCE...WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S
NORTHWEST TO THE MID 40S SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...PROVIDING
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LOWS IN THE 20S. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL
MOVE IN ON WEDNESDAY WELL AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE...WHICH WILL
CURTAIL SUNSHINE BY AFTERNOON. THE INCREASING CLOUDS AFTER A COOL
START WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN ON
TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY ALONG
AN AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHWEST.
THE PRECIPITATION WILL EXTEND UP THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH SOUTHERN
COUNTIES RECEIVING THE MOST. TEMPERATURE PROFILES INDICATE THAT
SNOW WILL MIX IN NORTH OF CINCINNATI AND PORTSMOUTH...BUT THE BULK
OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN NEAR THE OHIO
RIVER. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO 40 OR HIGHER ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WHICH WILL CHANCE ALL LINGERING PRECIPITATION TO RAIN.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY. MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH THIS
BOUNDARY SO CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IS LOW. LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT A SECONDARY TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH ON SUNDAY. BUT
TIMING FEATURES IN FAST NORTHWEST FLOW THAT FAR OUT IN TIME IS
PROBLEMATIC. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO START BUILDING IN ON
MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL EXCEPT OVER THE WEEKEND
WHEN THEY WILL COOL DOWN CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DEEP LOW PRESSURE N OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK N
INTO CANADA TODAY. EXTENSIVE FIELD OF CLOUDS EXISTS AROUND THIS
LOW IN THE LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW ACRS THE GREAT LAKES/OH VLY.
THIS MVFR SC DECK WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
THROUGH THE DAY BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE REGION TONIGHT.
LATEST SATL IMGRY SHOWS TEMPORARY CLEAR WEDGE OVER I-71 CORRIDOR BUT
MORE CLOUDS UPSTREAM BACK ACRS SRN INDIANA. CONTINUE TO SLOW THE
CLEARING PROGRESS BASED ON TRENDS WITH KCVG/KLUK SCATTERING OUT
AROUND 15Z...BUT KEPT CLOUDS IN KDAY THRU MIDDAY AND AT KCMH/KLCK
UNTIL MID AFTN. EXPECT GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AND LIGHT WINDS
WITH THE SFC HIGH BUILDING IN.
OUTLOOK...IFR CONDITIONS MAY ACCOMPANY SNOW AND RAIN ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...AR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
358 AM EST TUE JAN 24 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...PROVIDING A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER. LOW PRESSURE
TRAVELING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING PRECIPITATION LATE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE
BACK IN ON FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE WEST WILL MOVE INTO THE ILN AREA
TODAY. CLOUDS WILL PERSIST OVER NORTHERN COUNTIES INTO THIS
AFTERNOON UNTIL MOISTURE MOVES EAST AS PER LATEST RUC 1000-850MB
RELATIVE HUMIDITY. NUDGED TEMPERATURES UP SLIGHTLY TOWARD MAV
GUIDANCE...WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S
NORTHWEST TO THE MID 40S SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...PROVIDING
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LOWS IN THE 20S. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL
MOVE IN ON WEDNESDAY WELL AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE...WHICH WILL
CURTAIL SUNSHINE BY AFTERNOON. THE INCREASING CLOUDS AFTER A COOL
START WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN ON
TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY ALONG
AN AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHWEST.
THE PRECIPITATION WILL EXTEND UP THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH SOUTHERN
COUNTIES RECEIVING THE MOST. TEMPERATURE PROFILES INDICATE THAT
SNOW WILL MIX IN NORTH OF CINCINNATI AND PORTSMOUTH...BUT THE BULK
OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN NEAR THE OHIO
RIVER. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO 40 OR HIGHER ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WHICH WILL CHANCE ALL LINGERING PRECIPITATION TO RAIN.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY. MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH THIS
BOUNDARY SO CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IS LOW. LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT A SECONDARY TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH ON SUNDAY. BUT
TIMING FEATURES IN FAST NORTHWEST FLOW THAT FAR OUT IN TIME IS
PROBLEMATIC. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO START BUILDING IN ON
MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL EXCEPT OVER THE WEEKEND
WHEN THEY WILL COOL DOWN CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DEEP LOW PRESSURE N OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK N
INTO CANADA TODAY. EXTENSIVE FIELD OF CLOUDS EXISTS IN THE LOW
LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW ACRS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS MVFR SC DECK WILL
ROTATE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY ON
TUESDAY.
LATEST SATL IMGRY SHOWS SOME SLOW EROSION IS TAKING PLACE ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY ACRS SRN INDIANA. HAVE SLOWED THE CLEARING
PROGRESS BASED ON TRENDS WITH KCVG/KLUK SCATTERING OUT AROUND 10Z
BUT KEPT CLOUDS IN KDAY THRU LATE MORNING AND KCMH/KLCK UNTIL
EARLY AFTN. STILL EXPECT SCATTERED CU DURG THE DAY WITH CLEARING
TAKING PLACE LATE IN THE AFTN INTO EARLY EVENING.
OUTLOOK...IFR CONDITIONS MAY ACCOMPANY SNOW AND RAIN ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...AR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PORTLAND OR
211 PM PST TUE JAN 24 2012
.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT...TURNING STEADIER
PRECIPITATION INTO SHOWERS...FAVORING THE COAST RANGE AND CASCADES.
THEN ANOTHER WET SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE W
WED EVENING...AND MOVE THROUGH EARLY THU. PRECIPITATION WILL WIND
DOWN LATE IN THE WEEK AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS. EXPECT FOGGY
CONDITIONS FRIDAY MORNING IN THE VALLEY. MORE RAIN IS LIKELY TO
RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN OFFSHORE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN.
&&
.SHORT TERM...MUCH OF THE CWA NOW RESIDES IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THIS
SYSTEM. QPF HAS BEEN A BIT OF A CHALLENGE...WITH INITIAL MOISTURE
CONTENT NOT BEING CO-LOCATED WITH THE WARM FRONT.. THAT SAID...WE
STILL HAVE A DECENT MOISTURE PLUME STILL POINTED AT NW OREGON AND
QUITE A BIT OF LIFT LEFT. AMSU ESTIMATED TPW IS STILL
INCREASING...UP TO 1.4 INCHES OFFSHORE...1.2 PER SPC RUC
MESOANALYSIS. 850 WINDS PER RUC ANALYSIS IN EXCESS OF 50 KT MEANS
GOOD MOISTURE STILL BEING TRANSPORTED TO THE REGION AND FORCING
AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING OFFSHORE COLD FRONT...SO THE HEAVY RAIN
THREAT IS NOT OVER. ADDITIONALLY...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT AS HAS BEEN OBSERVED IN THE COASTAL WATERS AND INLAND.
HAVE ADDED ISOLATED THUNDER EVERYWHERE WITH MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...ELEVATED INSTABILITY...AND SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
FOR CHARGE SEPARATION. UPDATED ZONES COMING SOON.
WINDS HAVE BEEN INCREASING IN THE WARM SECTOR...AND HAVE BEEN
SUSTAINED IN THE 30S AND 40S AT SEVERAL COASTAL HEADLAND
LOCATIONS...WITH GUSTS IN THE MID 50S SO FAR...AND SEVERAL GUSTS TO
AROUND 60 MPH. EXPECT WINDS TO EASE TONIGHT SIGNIFICANTLY AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
WE HAVE HAD REPORTS OF 3 INCHES OF SNOW IN HOOD RIVER FROM
SPOTTERS...UP TO 4 FEET IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AWAY FROM THE
GORGE...WITH A SWITCH TO A MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN
BRIEFLY...AND NOW SOME SPOTS JUST RAIN. ROAD REPORTS AS OF 1015 AM
INDICATED 3+ IN PARKDALE IN THE UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY...AND 5" AT
TIMBERLINE LODGE. EXPECT THAT SEVERAL EXTRA INCHES FELL AT PARKDALE
AS THIS REPORT WAS BEFORE ABOUT AN HOUR OF HEAVIER SNOW FELL. THE
GOOD NEWS IS...PRECIPITATION IS EASING IN THE LOWLANDS...SO
SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULUATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED...AND TEMPERATURES
ARE RISING. SPOTTERS DID REPORT LIGHT ICE ON THE GROUND IN
PARKDALE...BUT THAT TEMPS ARE ABOVE FREEZING AND IT IS RAINING. WILL
HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANY REFREEZING TONIGHT NEAR HOOD RIVER AFTER THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH...BUT AT THIS TIME THINK TEMPS WILL STAY ABOVE
FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY GRADIENTS PICKING UP.
PERIOD OF CONCERN WOULD BE LATE TONIGHT TOWARD MORNING AFTER THE
COLD FRONT MOVES IN.
MOIST WESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP THREAT OF PRECIPITATION GOING BEHIND
THE FRONT TONIGHT INTO WED...ESP OVER OROGRAPHICALLY AIDED
MOUNTAINS.SNOW LEVELS LOOK TO BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW PASS LEVEL...SO
EXPECT SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. THERE IS STILL AN AVALANCHE THREAT IN
THE MOUNTAINS...SO CAUTION IS URGED FOR OUTDOOR ENTHUSIASTS.
WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE DRIEST DAY...WIDESPREAD SPEAKING. A MORE
ORGANIZED THREAT OF RAIN COMES AGAIN WED NIGHT AND THU AS THE
TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME...NOT QUITE SO IMPRESSIVE AS TODAYS PLUME
(PW VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 0.8-0.9 VS. TODAY UP TO 1.2-1.3) LIFTS
BACK N INTO OREGON AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM. 850 WINDS ARE
ALSO A BIT WEAKER. THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSED SOUTH AND STALLED WILL
LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT WED EVE...THEN DRIVING A SFC LOW
INTO WASHINGTON STATE EARLY THU. ADDITIONAL FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY (IN ADDITION TO THAT PASSING TO THE NORTH) WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH...BRINGING ADDITIONAL PRECIP CHANCES FURTHER SOUTH.
HIGH PRES THAN BUILDS OFFSHORE THURS AND SPREADS INLAND THURSDAY
NIGHT AS PRECIP TAPERS FROM SHOWERS AND THEN DIMINISHES. HAVE BUMPED
TEMPERATURES DOWN FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT...GIVEN THE
EXPECTED RIDGE BUILDING IN AND RADIATIONAL COOLING. COOLING WILL BE
OFFSET BY FOG DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY MORNING WITH A VERY SATURATED
GROUND. KMD
.LONG TERM...EXTENDED MODELS ARE SLOWLY MOVING TOWARD AGREEMENT ON
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE
WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN SHIFT WOULD INDICATE A CHANGE TOWARD DRIER
CONDITIONS AND COOLER NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE WEEKEND WILL BE THE EXTENT AND
SEVERITY OF OVERNIGHT FOG DEVELOPMENT.
MODELS DO DIFFER ON TIMING BUT AGREE THAT A SHORTWAVE WILL RIDE OVER
TOP THE RIDGE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING A RETURN OF
PRECIPITATION AND USHERING IN ANOTHER ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN TO THE
PAC NW. THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM AFTER THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN
LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THOUGH
DETAILS ON STRENGTH AND TIMING HAVE YET TO SOLIDIFY AMONGST MODEL
SOLUTIONS. HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST TOWARD A RETURN OF
CLIMATOLOGICAL CONDITIONS BEGINNING EARLY NEXT WEEK. BROWN
&&
.AVIATION...PREDOMINANTLY LOW MVFR CONDITIONS IN MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SOME IFR IN AREAS OF HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT THE
COAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS ALSO EXPECTED INLAND. CONDITIONS GENERALLY BEGIN TO
IMPROVE LATE THIS EVENING AS THE TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
THE REGION. EXPECT A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD EVENTUALLY TRANSITIONING TO ALL VFR TOMORROW
MORNING.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AS WARM
FRONTAL RAIN CONTINUES. EXPECT BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS TO PICK UP
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. VFR RETURNING WITH UNSTABLE POST FRONTAL AIR
MASS DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. JFP
&&
.MARINE...WINDS CONTINUE IN THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE WITH GUSTS TO 35
KT OVER THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT PUSHES ONSHORE.
EXPECT BORDERLINE GALE FORCE WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING
BEFORE TURNING MORE WESTERLY AND DROPPING OFF SIGNIFICANTLY THIS
EVENING AS A TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. WINDS WILL REMAIN
ABOVE 20 KT THROUGH WED BEFORE DROPPING OFF THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.
SEAS HAVE BUILT INTO THE MID TEENS AND WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
RISE THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. EXPECT SEAS NEAR 20 FT BY LATE THIS
EVENING AND INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S BY TOMORROW MORNING. SEAS SHOULD
DROP BELOW 20 FT THU MORNING AND CONTINUE STEADILY DROPPING THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...EVENTUALLY REACHING NEAR OR BELOW 10 FT
FOR THE WEEKEND. JFP
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR CASCADE FOOTHILLS IN
LANE COUNTY-CENTRAL COAST RANGE OF WESTERN OREGON-CENTRAL
OREGON COAST-CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY-COAST RANGE OF
NORTHWEST OREGON-GREATER PORTLAND METRO AREA-LOWER COLUMBIA-
NORTH OREGON COAST-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-SOUTH
WILLAMETTE VALLEY-UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY-WESTERN COLUMBIA
RIVER GORGE.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 4 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR CENTRAL
OREGON COAST-NORTH OREGON COAST.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CENTRAL
OREGON COAST-NORTH OREGON COAST.
WA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR GREATER VANCOUVER
AREA- I-5 CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ COUNTY-SOUTH
WASHINGTON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-SOUTH WASHINGTON
COAST-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-WILLAPA HILLS.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 4 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR SOUTH
WASHINGTON COAST.
PZ...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS
FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 5 AM
PST WEDNESDAY.
$$
MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NWS RAPID CITY SD
1122 AM MST TUE JAN 24 2012
.UPDATE...18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
NORTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA TO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. REGIONAL
RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A NARROW BAND OF SNOW EXTENDING FROM SOUTH OF
MOBRIDGE TO PHILIP TO PINE RIDGE. WHICH IS ASSOCIATED WITH A BAND
OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WHICH IS WELL DEPICTED IN THE MODELS.
MODELS SHOW THE FRONTOGENESIS REGION MOVING ONLY SLIGHTLY FARTHER
SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND GRADUALLY WEAKENING...BRINGING AN END
TO THE LIGHT SNOW LATER THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE SKIES ARE CLEAR
OVER NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE
FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION...18Z TAF UPDATE
MVFR CONDITIONS...WITH AREAS OF IFR...WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON. NORTHEASTERN WYOMING
HAS ALREADY CLEARED TO VFR CONDITIONS...AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
WILL BECOME VFR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS BANDS OF SNOW EXIT THE AREA.
WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING AND BECOME BREEZY IN
NORTHEAST WYOMING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 527 AM MST TUE JAN 24 2012/
UPDATE...NARROW BAND OF MODERATE FRONTOGENESIS FROM 850-600MB
FRONTOGENESIS IS MAKING MAXIMUM USAGE OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE THIS
MORNING FROM THE BLACK HILLS ONTO PORTIONS OF THE SD PLAINS. WILL
UPDATE FORECAST FOR HIGHER POPS AND SPREAD HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS
ONTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS OF THE BLACK HILLS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 223 AM MST TUE JAN 24 2012/
DISCUSSION...09Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW OVER NORTH CENTRAL CO
WITH TROUGH INTO WESTERN ND. WATER VAPOUR HAD UPPER TROUGH
STRETCHING FROM SOUTHERN SK INTO AZ. MAIN SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN AZ
AND MOVING ACROSS MT INTO ND. MAINLY A SHEAR AXIS TO MOVE THROUGH
THE CWA TODAY...BUT LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW RETURNS INCREASING
ACROSS THE CWA. 06Z RUC PICKS UP ON THIS TREND WITH MODEST BAND OF
FRONTOGENESIS ALONG TROUGH...WHICH WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY. 00Z KUNR SOUNDING AND MODIFIED 09Z FORECAST SOUNDING
STILL SHOWS LOWEST 2KM OF TROPOSPHERE FAIRLY DRY. SOME LIFT WILL
BE WASTED. WILL BE MAKING LAST MINUTE ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS BASED ON
LATEST TRENDS. A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED
BEHIND TROUGH IN THE SQUEEZE ZONE JUST NORTH THROUGH EAST OF THE
BLACK HILLS. TEMPERATURES NEAR GUIDANCE.
TONIGHT...WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE ALOFT PASSES THROUGH WITH HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTING SOUTH. RETURN FLOW STARTS IN EARNEST OVERNIGHT
AS SHORTWAVE ZIPS ACROSS THE MT/SK BORDER. TYPICAL AREAS IN
NORTHEASTERN WY/BLACK HILLS WILL SEE BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AS
WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISALLOBARIC FORCING COMMENCES.
WEDNESDAY...WARM FRONT QUICKLY MOVES EAST OF THE CWA WITH COLD
FRONT DROPPING INTO THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON AS SURFACE LOW
MOVES FROM SK INTO MB. DOWNSLOPE FLOW AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WILL
PROMOTE TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5-10F ABOVE NORMAL. WINDY SPOTS WILL
DEVELOP ON THE SD PLAINS. TEMPERATURES NEAR GUIDANCE.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY...UPPER FLOW BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY WITH A
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVING FROM AB INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.
BEST LIFT WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA WITH
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE MOST NOTABLE. TEMPERATURES NEAR GUIDANCE.
EXTENDED...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH A CANADIAN LOW
WILL PRODUCE BREEZY WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES...THOUGH STILL SEASONABLY
AVERAGE...ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. WARMER AIR WILL ADVECT IN
FROM THE WEST SUNDAY WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT
WEEK. SOME AREAS MAY SEE SOME RAIN OR SNOW SUNDAY AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE AREA.
AVIATION...12Z TAFS
CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DETERIORATE TO
MVFR...WITH AREAS OF IFR...AS -SN DEVELOPS OVER NORTHEAST WYOMING
AND FAR WESTERN/SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
ACROSS FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS
RETURNING AREA WIDE BY 00Z.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...WFO UNR
LONG TERM...WFO UNR
AVIATION...EWY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ABERDEEN SD
1141 AM CST TUE JAN 24 2012
.UPDATE...
SOME FOG AND LOW CEILINGS HOLDING IN THE WATERTOWN AREA THIS
MORNING AND SHOULD BURN OFF BY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH AXIS TO THE WEST WILL BE SLIDING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE EVENING. QUITE A BIT OF ECHOES ON THE RADAR THIS MORNING WITH
NOTHING SHOWING UP AT THE SURFACE. LIGHT SNOW HAVING A HARD TIME
MAKING IT THROUGH THE DRY AIR BELOW. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL SHOWS
SOME LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THUS...ADJUSTED
POPS OUT WEST AND ADDED SOME SCT FLURRIES INTO THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. OTHERWISE...CLOUD COVER WILL AFFECT
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY AND ADJUSTED THEM DOWN IN THE EASTERN
CWA. WARMER AIR TO THE WEST BEHIND THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL PUSH
INTO CENTRAL SD AS THE WINDS TURN WEST THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY
HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE THE MAIN
FORECAST CHALLENGE.
AS OF 9Z A WARM FRONT IS LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS. TEMPERATURES BEHIND THIS FRONT ARE IN THE LOWER
20S...WITH A FEW 30 DEGREE READINGS IN WYOMING. THERE IS SOME MID
LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT ASSOCIATED ALONG THE WARM FRONT AND SHORT
WAVE...WHICH COULD RESULT IN SCATTERED FLURRIES THROUGH NOON.
TEMPS AT H85 DO WARM TO AROUND 0C BY THIS EVENING...AND WITH
DECENT MIXING WINDS...SOME OF THIS WARM AIR SHOULD REACH THE
SURFACE. HOWEVER WITH A SNOW DEPTH OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OR SO ACROSS
THE CWA...THIS WILL LIKELY LIMIT SOME OF THE WARMING POTENTIAL.
THE COMBINATION OF ADDED LLM DUE TO SNOW MELT TODAY...AND LIGHT
WINDS TONIGHT...BELIEVE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. WAA SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPS AT
H85 WARMING TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO. FAVORABLE WIND
DIRECTION FROM THE SOUTHWEST...SHIFTING TO THE WEST SHOULD ALLOW
FOR TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 30S...AND LOWER 40S.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN MILD AS WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING. HOWEVER A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION AROUND 12Z THURSDAY WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE FORECAST. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY SHOULD STILL REACH THE LOWER 30S HOWEVER.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
NUMERICAL PREDICTION MODELS ARE SOMEWHAT SLOWER WITH THE RETURN
TO COLDER/SEASONAL AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY. LATEST RUNS
NOW HOLDING OFF ON THE SFC COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND ASSOCIATED
STRONG CAA UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT. WARMED HIGH TEMPERATURES
APPROXIMATELY 5-8F FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A RESULT. COLD
NORTHERLY BREEZES WILL USHER IN AN A CONTINENTAL POLAR AIRMASS
SOUTHWARD THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE COLD AIR INTRUSION WILL BE
BRIEF...HOWEVER..SLIDING EAST OF THE REGION DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
STRONG WAA IS ANTICIPATED FOR SUNDAY WITH BREEZY TO WINDY SOUTH
WINDS AND INCREASING CLOUDS. SCT FLURRIES ARE ALSO A POSSIBILITY
EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER AS WAA MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH ATMOSPHERIC
ASCENT/UPGLIDE OVER THIS REGION. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...ALBEIT THE ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY
SLOWER...USHERING IN A MILD PACIFIC AIRMASS AND A RETURN TO ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SPREADING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW STRETCHES FROM SW
SODAK NEWD INTO NC SODAK...AND IS SLOWLY WORKING EAST. KMBG HAS
REPORTED SOME LIGHT SNOW ALREADY AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO FOR A
FEW MORE HOURS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE CLOUDS/PRECIP CLEAR OUT.
LIGHT SNOW IS ALSO PROBABLE AT KPIR AND KABR MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING...WHILE A FEW HOURS OF LIGHT SNOW REMAINS
POSSIBLE AT THE KATY TERMINAL THIS EVENING AS THE BAND OF LIGHT
SNOW BEGINS TO DISSIPATE. EXPECT LOW END VFR TO HIGH END MVFR
CIGS AND VISBIES TO BE THE PREVAILING FLIGHT CATEGORY IN SNOW.
OTHERWISE...VFR FLYING WEATHER WILL PREVAIL. SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM
WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING AND
WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE...MAKING
PATCHY FOG A POSSIBILITY OVERNIGHT...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...CHURCH
AVIATION...DORN
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ABERDEEN SD
1043 AM CST TUE JAN 24 2012
.UPDATE...
SOME FOG AND LOW CEILINGS HOLDING IN THE WATERTOWN AREA THIS
MORNING AND SHOULD BURN OFF BY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH AXIS TO THE WEST WILL BE SLIDING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE EVENING. QUITE A BIT OF ECHOES ON THE RADAR THIS MORNING WITH
NOTHING SHOWING UP AT THE SURFACE. LIGHT SNOW HAVING A HARD TIME
MAKING IT THROUGH THE DRY AIR BELOW. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL SHOWS
SOME LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THUS...ADJUSTED
POPS OUT WEST AND ADDED SOME SCT FLURRIES INTO THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. OTHERWISE...CLOUD COVER WILL AFFECT
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY AND ADJUSTED THEM DOWN IN THE EASTERN
CWA. WARMER AIR TO THE WEST BEHIND THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL PUSH
INTO CENTRAL SD AS THE WINDS TURN WEST THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY
HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE THE MAIN
FORECAST CHALLENGE.
AS OF 9Z A WARM FRONT IS LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS. TEMPERATURES BEHIND THIS FRONT ARE IN THE LOWER
20S...WITH A FEW 30 DEGREE READINGS IN WYOMING. THERE IS SOME MID
LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT ASSOCIATED ALONG THE WARM FRONT AND SHORT
WAVE...WHICH COULD RESULT IN SCATTERED FLURRIES THROUGH NOON.
TEMPS AT H85 DO WARM TO AROUND 0C BY THIS EVENING...AND WITH
DECENT MIXING WINDS...SOME OF THIS WARM AIR SHOULD REACH THE
SURFACE. HOWEVER WITH A SNOW DEPTH OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OR SO ACROSS
THE CWA...THIS WILL LIKELY LIMIT SOME OF THE WARMING POTENTIAL.
THE COMBINATION OF ADDED LLM DUE TO SNOW MELT TODAY...AND LIGHT WINDS
TONIGHT...BELIEVE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WAA
SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPS AT H85 WARMING TO
THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO. FAVORABLE WIND DIRECTION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...SHIFTING TO THE WEST SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO
CLIMB INTO THE 30S...AND LOWER 40S.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN MILD AS WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING. HOWEVER A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION AROUND 12Z THURSDAY WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE FORECAST. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY SHOULD STILL REACH THE LOWER 30S HOWEVER.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
NUMERICAL PREDICTION MODELS ARE SOMEWHAT SLOWER WITH THE RETURN
TO COLDER/SEASONAL AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY. LATEST RUNS NOW
HOLDING OFF ON THE SFC COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND ASSOCIATED STRONG
CAA UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT. WARMED HIGH TEMPERATURES APPROXIMATELY 5-8F
FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A RESULT. COLD NORTHERLY BREEZES WILL USHER IN AN A
CONTINENTAL POLAR AIRMASS SOUTHWARD THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE COLD AIR
INTRUSION WILL BE BRIEF...HOWEVER..SLIDING EAST OF THE REGION
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. STRONG WAA IS ANTICIPATED FOR SUNDAY WITH
BREEZY TO WINDY SOUTH WINDS AND INCREASING CLOUDS. SCT FLURRIES
ARE ALSO A POSSIBILITY EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER AS WAA MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH
ATMOSPHERIC ASCENT/UPGLIDE OVER THIS REGION. MODELS REMAIN IN
GOOD AGREEMENT SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...ALBEIT THE ECMWF IS
SLIGHTLY SLOWER...USHERING IN A MILD PACIFIC AIRMASS AND A RETURN
TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING WDSPRD MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS TO THE REGION TODAY. LCL LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KMBG
AND KPIR BY ABOUT MID-DAY AND AT KABR AND KATY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. LOW END VFR TO HIGH END MVFR CIGS ALONG WITH BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR VSBYS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH THE -SN. SKIES WILL CLEAR
BY THIS EVENING...MAKING PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. LIGHT
WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...CHURCH
AVIATION...CHURCH
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NWS RAPID CITY SD
527 AM MST TUE JAN 24 2012
.UPDATE...NARROW BAND OF MODERATE FRONTOGENESIS FROM 850-600MB
FRONTOGENESIS IS MAKING MAXIMUM USAGE OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE THIS
MORNING FROM THE BLACK HILLS ONTO PORTIONS OF THE SD PLAINS. WILL
UPDATE FORECAST FOR HIGHER POPS AND SPREAD HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS
ONTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS OF THE BLACK HILLS.
&&
.AVIATION...12Z TAF UPDATE
MVFR CONDITIONS...WITH AREAS OF IFR...WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING AS SNOW CONTINUES TO SPREAD EAST.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE ACROSS FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY
WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING AREA WIDE BY 00Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 223 AM MST TUE JAN 24 2012/
DISCUSSION...09Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW OVER NORTH CENTRAL CO
WITH TROUGH INTO WESTERN ND. WATER VAPOUR HAD UPPER TROUGH
STRETCHING FROM SOUTHERN SK INTO AZ. MAIN SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN AZ
AND MOVING ACROSS MT INTO ND. MAINLY A SHEAR AXIS TO MOVE THROUGH
THE CWA TODAY...BUT LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW RETURNS INCREASING
ACROSS THE CWA. 06Z RUC PICKS UP ON THIS TREND WITH MODEST BAND OF
FRONTOGENESIS ALONG TROUGH...WHICH WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY. 00Z KUNR SOUNDING AND MODIFIED 09Z FORECAST SOUNDING
STILL SHOWS LOWEST 2KM OF TROPOSPHERE FAIRLY DRY. SOME LIFT WILL
BE WASTED. WILL BE MAKING LAST MINUTE ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS BASED ON
LATEST TRENDS. A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED
BEHIND TROUGH IN THE SQUEEZE ZONE JUST NORTH THROUGH EAST OF THE
BLACK HILLS. TEMPERATURES NEAR GUIDANCE.
TONIGHT...WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE ALOFT PASSES THROUGH WITH HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTING SOUTH. RETURN FLOW STARTS IN EARNEST OVERNIGHT
AS SHORTWAVE ZIPS ACROSS THE MT/SK BORDER. TYPICAL AREAS IN
NORTHEASTERN WY/BLACK HILLS WILL SEE BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AS
WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISALLOBARIC FORCING COMMENCES.
WEDNESDAY...WARM FRONT QUICKLY MOVES EAST OF THE CWA WITH COLD
FRONT DROPPING INTO THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON AS SURFACE LOW
MOVES FROM SK INTO MB. DOWNSLOPE FLOW AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WILL
PROMOTE TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5-10F ABOVE NORMAL. WINDY SPOTS WILL
DEVELOP ON THE SD PLAINS. TEMPERATURES NEAR GUIDANCE.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY...UPPER FLOW BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY WITH A
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVING FROM AB INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.
BEST LIFT WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA WITH
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE MOST NOTABLE. TEMPERATURES NEAR GUIDANCE.
EXTENDED...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH A CANADIAN LOW
WILL PRODUCE BREEZY WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES...THOUGH STILL SEASONABLY
AVERAGE...ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. WARMER AIR WILL ADVECT IN
FROM THE WEST SUNDAY WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT
WEEK. SOME AREAS MAY SEE SOME RAIN OR SNOW SUNDAY AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE AREA.
AVIATION...12Z TAFS
CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DETERIORATE TO
MVFR...WITH AREAS OF IFR...AS -SN DEVELOPS OVER NORTHEAST WYOMING
AND FAR WESTERN/SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
ACROSS FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS
RETURNING AREA WIDE BY 00Z.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM....CALDERON
AVIATION...CALDERON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NWS RAPID CITY SD
223 AM MST TUE JAN 24 2012
.DISCUSSION...09Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW OVER NORTH CENTRAL CO
WITH TROUGH INTO WESTERN ND. WATER VAPOUR HAD UPPER TROUGH
STRETCHING FROM SOUTHERN SK INTO AZ. MAIN SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN AZ
AND MOVING ACROSS MT INTO ND. MAINLY A SHEAR AXIS TO MOVE THROUGH
THE CWA TODAY...BUT LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW RETURNS INCREASING
ACROSS THE CWA. 06Z RUC PICKS UP ON THIS TREND WITH MODEST BAND OF
FRONTOGENESIS ALONG TROUGH...WHICH WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY. 00Z KUNR SOUNDING AND MODIFIED 09Z FORECAST SOUNDING
STILL SHOWS LOWEST 2KM OF TROPOSPHERE FAIRLY DRY. SOME LIFT WILL
BE WASTED. WILL BE MAKING LAST MINUTE ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS BASED ON
LATEST TRENDS. A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED
BEHIND TROUGH IN THE SQUEEZE ZONE JUST NORTH THROUGH EAST OF THE
BLACK HILLS. TEMPERATURES NEAR GUIDANCE.
TONIGHT...WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE ALOFT PASSES THROUGH WITH HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTING SOUTH. RETURN FLOW STARTS IN EARNEST OVERNIGHT
AS SHORTWAVE ZIPS ACROSS THE MT/SK BORDER. TYPICAL AREAS IN
NORTHEASTERN WY/BLACK HILLS WILL SEE BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AS
WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISALLOBARIC FORCING COMMENCES.
WEDNESDAY...WARM FRONT QUICKLY MOVES EAST OF THE CWA WITH COLD
FRONT DROPPING INTO THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON AS SURFACE LOW
MOVES FROM SK INTO MB. DOWNSLOPE FLOW AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WILL
PROMOTE TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5-10F ABOVE NORMAL. WINDY SPOTS WILL
DEVELOP ON THE SD PLAINS. TEMPERATURES NEAR GUIDANCE.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY...UPPER FLOW BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY WITH A
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVING FROM AB INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.
BEST LIFT WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA WITH
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE MOST NOTABLE. TEMPERATURES NEAR GUIDANCE.
EXTENDED...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH A CANADIAN LOW
WILL PRODUCE BREEZY WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES...THOUGH STILL SEASONABLY
AVERAGE...ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. WARMER AIR WILL ADVECT IN
FROM THE WEST SUNDAY WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT
WEEK. SOME AREAS MAY SEE SOME RAIN OR SNOW SUNDAY AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...12Z TAFS
CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DETERIORATE TO
MVFR...WITH AREAS OF IFR...AS -SN DEVELOPS OVER NORTHEAST WYOMING
AND FAR WESTERN/SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
ACROSS FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS
RETURNING AREA WIDE BY 00Z.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM....CALDERON
AVIATION...CALDERON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MORRISTOWN TN
804 PM EST WED JAN 25 2012
.DISCUSSION...
A FRONT IS POSITIONED FROM EXTREME EASTERN KY ACROSS THE CUMBERLAND
PLATEAU TO SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN TO NORTHERN MS. CONVERGENCE IN THE
FRONTAL ZONE IS GENERATING SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IN NORTHERN
MORGAN COUNTY AT THE MOMENT. THE RUC SHOWS THIS BOUNDARY MOVING
SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT AS THE LLJ PICKS UP. THERE WILL BE
SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT ARRIVING LATE TONIGHT...BUT OTHERWISE
LIFTING MECHANISMS TO GENERATE PRECIP APPEAR NONEXISTENT. THE 00Z
OHX SOUNDING SHOWS DRY MIDLEVELS...AND MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ALSO SHOW MIDLEVEL DRY AIR REMAINING IN PLACE UNTIL AFTER 12Z. AS A
RESULT...POPS WILL BE LOWERED OVERNIGHT TO NO HIGHER THAN A
CHANCE...AND MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
DGS
THE UPDATED PUBLIC AND AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSIONS ARE INCLUDED
BELOW.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
THE ADVERTISED UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WILL BE IMPACTING OUR WEATHER
OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS IS DEEPENING NEAR THE AZ/NM BORDER LATE
THIS MORNING. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS STARTING TO DEVELOP ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE UPPER TRANS PECOS REGION IN ADVANCE
OF THIS APPROACHING FEATURE. GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS
ARE STARTING TO TRANSPORT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE /DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S
TO LOWER 50S/ BACK INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN AND WESTERN LOW ROLLING
PLAINS TO THE EAST OF THIS FEATURE. THE LATEST NAM AND RUC MODEL
SOLUTIONS BOTH INDICATE THAT A TONGUE OF INSTABILITY WILL STRETCH
ACROSS THE LOWER TRANS PECOS AND THE PERMIAN BASIN THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...MAXIMIZED AROUND 1000 J/KG FROM NEAR MIDLAND/ODESSA
TO NEAR BIG LAKE/SHEFFIELD AND POINTS SOUTHEASTWARD DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. AN ENHANCED AREA OF MID LEVEL
LIFT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM...ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL
SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG AND EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH/DRYLINE
SHOULD AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN AND LOWER TRANS PECOS
REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY INTO THIS EVENING.
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE MOST FAVORED EAST OF A LAMESA...BIG SPRING...
BIG LAKE LINE. THE INCREASED INSTABILITY...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND
FAIRLY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAY SUPPORT A FEW ORGANIZED
STORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PERMIAN BASIN AND THE LOWER
TRANS PECOS REGION...AND WE HAVE KEPT A MENTION OF SEVERE
POTENTIAL IN THE FORECAST EAST OF A LAMESA...MIDLAND...SANDERSON
LINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE HAZARDS THOUGH AN ISOLATED
TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. OVERALL POPS/WEATHER/QPF GRIDS WERE
IN GOOD SHAPE...AND ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION...
MVFR CEILINGS WITH BASES AROUND 1500 FT AGL HAVE SPREAD INTO THE
EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN AND WESTERN LOW ROLLING PLAINS THIS
MORNING...BUT HAVE REMAINED EAST OF THE KMAF TERMINAL SO FAR. VFR
CONDITIONS OTHERWISE PREVAIL WITH AN OVERCAST DECK OF CIRROSTRATUS
CONTINUING TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW. MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP AS FAR WEST AS
KMAF DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
SUSTAINED BETWEEN 15-20 KNOTS...WITH A FEW GUSTS OVER 25 KNOTS
WILL ALSO IMPACT KMAF THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS WILL APPLY
ELSEWHERE UNDERNEATH THE BKN-OVC HIGH CLOUD DECK. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED TSRA WILL DEVELOP MAINLY EAST OF THE LOCAL TERMINALS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THOUGH WE DID MENTION CB AT KMAF
AFTER 25/00Z.
MVFR CEILINGS WILL SPREAD WEST AND BECOME PREVALENT ACROSS THE
PERMIAN BASIN/KMAF BY EARLY THIS EVENING. MVFR TO IFR CIGS WILL
THEN SPREAD ACROSS ALL OF THE LOCAL TERMINALS BETWEEN 25/06Z AND
25/12Z FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN
MAY DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE PERMIAN BASIN
AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND HAVE OPTED TO INCLUDE A TEMPO MENTION OF -RA
AND MVFR VISIBILITY REDUCTION IN AT KCNM...KHOB...AND KMAF.
NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KNOTS WITH
A FEW GUSTS OF 25-30 KNOTS FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE.
&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
21
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
930 PM CST WED JAN 25 2012
.UPDATE...
REALLY STRUGGLING WITH HOW TO HANDLE THE LOW STRATUS SNEAKING UP
FROM THE SOUTH. THE HRRR LOOKS WAY TOO BULLISH WITH THE LOW
CLOUDS...TAKING IT NORTH THROUGH THE CWA AND EVENTUALLY COVERING
MOST OF WISCONSIN IN LOWER CLOUDS BY 12Z THU. THE NAM 925MB RH PROGS
SEEM TO FIT REALITY A LITTLE BETTER. ALSO USED THE LOW LEVEL
ISENTROPIC CHARTS...NOTING THE LOW CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS...
TO GET A FEEL FOR THE EXTENT OF THE CLOUDS. THESE CLOUDS ARE BEING
HELPED ALONG BY SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WITHIN A REGION OF WEAK
TO MODERATE WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROF TO
THE WEST. IT APPEARS THESE CLOUDS WILL SURGE INTO THE SOUTHEAST
1/3 OR SO OF THE CWA LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WITH THE
DRIER AIR TO THE NORTH POSSIBLY LIMITING ANY FARTHER TRAVEL NORTH.
LATER TONIGHT...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST...HELPING
TO SHOVE THE CLOUDS EAST WITH TIME THURSDAY MORNING. THEN WE MAY
HAVE MORE CLOUDS ARRIVING WITH THE CAA IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING
COLD FRONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER
TO ADJUST FOR ALL OF THIS.
&&
.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...
PER THE DISCUSSION ABOVE...HAVE ALREADY INTRODUCED MVFR CIGS TO
THE 3 SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN TAFS. NOT SURE YET IF THE MVFR CIGS WILL
BE ABLE TO REACH MADISON. WILL MAKE THAT DECISION PRIOR TO THE 06Z
TAFS GOING OUT. THESE CLOUDS IN THE SOUTHEAST SHOULD HANG IN
THROUGH ABOUT MID MORNING...THEN HOPEFULLY BEGIN TO SCOUR OUT
THEREAFTER. IT IS POSSIBLE MORE MVFR CIGS WILL ARRIVE IN THE WAKE
OF THE PASSING COLD FRONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON. STILL ASSESSING THE
NEW GUIDANCE ROLLING IN. BUT...IT APPEARS IT WILL BE A CLOUDIER
PERIOD THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CST WED JAN 25 2012/
SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH
ONGOING LIGHT SNOW NORTH OF A WATERTOWN TO MILWAUKEE LINE WILL
DISSIPATE BY EVENING...WITH DRY WEATHER THEN EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND
THURSDAY. MAIN FORECAST CONCERN THROUGH TOMORROW IS ONCE AGAIN
CLOUD COVER AND RESULTANT TEMPERATURES. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL SLOWLY EXIT THIS EVENING...WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF CLOUDS MOVING
IN FROM THE WEST TOWARD MORNING. GIVEN CLOUDS AND WINDS GENERALLY
REMAINING 5 TO 10 MPH AT THE SFC...KEPT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID
20S.
MODELS NOT AGREEING TOO WELL ON CLOUD POTENTIAL FOR
TOMORROW...PARTICULARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. NAM WANTS TO BRING A LOW
STRATUS DECK IN...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN MAX TEMPS QUITE A BIT LOWER
THAN WHAT IS IN THE FORECAST. LEANING MORE TOWARD MODELS WITH MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...ALLOWING DECENT SOUTHWEST WINDS TO WARM
THINGS UP TOWARD 40 IN THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF WI THU EVENING WITH COLD
ADVECTION AND CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED. SWLY WINDS AND WARM
ADVECTION TO DEVELOP FRI AM AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT PLAINS. THIS WILL BE A FAST
MOVING SYSTEM WITH LGT SNOW OVERSPREADING SRN WI FROM WEST TO EAST
FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. 850-700 MB FRONTOGENESIS AND
WARM...MOIST ADVECTION ON THE NOSE OF A 40 KT LLJ WILL BE THE
PRIMARY MESOSCALE LIFTING MECHANISMS. DEEP AND WEAK TO MODERATE
VALUES OF Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND OMEGA ARE DEPICTED BY THE MODELS.
THE NAM HAS THE QPF AXIS DIRECTLY ACROSS THE CWA WITH THE ECMWF
SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH AND THE GFS SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH. A
CONSENSUS OF QPF WITH MINOR ADJUSTMENTS GIVES VALUES MAINLY FROM
0.15-.20 INCHES BUT SLIGHTLY LOWER IN FAR SE WI. SNOW TO LIQUID
RATIOS WILL BECOMING HIGHER DURING THE SNOW AND WILL RANGE FROM 15
TO 1 IN THE NW CWA TO 12 TO 1 IN THE SE CWA AT 00Z SAT. SNOW
TOTALS RANGE FROM 2 TO 3 INCHES. THERE COULD BE A NARROW STRIP OF
3 TO 5 INCHES IF THE OVERALL STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM REMAINS
RESPECTABLE AND IF THE MAIN AXIS OF LIFT AND QPF MOVES OVER
PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
BRISK NWLY WINDS AND COLD ADVECTION TO THEN PREVAIL LATE FRI NT
WITH SWLY WINDS AND WARM ADVECTION RETURNING FOR SAT AHEAD OF A
DIGGING UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT. BROUGHT
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL WI FOR SAT
AFTERNOON AND OVER ALL OF THE CWA SAT NT. PWS ONLY 0.25 INCHES AND
OVERALL LIFT IS WEAK BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE WIDESPREAD
VERY LIGHT SNOW THAT ONLY RESULTS IN A DUSTING OF SNOW.
LONG TERM...
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW TO MEDIUM
THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF WI ON SUNDAY WITH A QUASI
ZONAL FLOW SETTING UP ACROSS THE NRN USA AND SRN CANADA THROUGH
WED. THERE ARE SMALL CHANCES OF PCPN THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. IN
GENERAL AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT PLAINS EARLY IN THE
WEEK WILL MOVE TOWARD THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY AND WRN GREAT
LAKES AND LIKELY WEAKEN. SLY WIND AND WARM ADVECTION MAY PRODUCE
SOME PCPN AHEAD OF THE LOW. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL THEN MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE AREA ON TUE WITH SMALL POPS CONTINUING FOR TUE AND TUE
NT.
AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...
LIGHT SNOW NORTH OF A WATERTOWN TO MILWAUKEE LINE WILL WIND DOWN BY
EVENING...WITH DRY WEATHER THEN EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY.
CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT THIS EVENING...WITH MORE MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS HEADING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST NOT TOO LONG AFTER THE
CURRENT CLOUD DECK EXITS TO THE EAST.
SHOULD SEE SOME SUN THURSDAY MORNING...WITH MODELS NOT AGREEING TOO
WELL ON AFTERNOON CLOUD POTENTIAL. THE NAM HAS THE HIGHEST LOW LEVEL
RH TOMORROW...SUGGESTING LOW STRATUS IN THE AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. LEANED TOWARD THE DRIER MODELS FOR
NOW...KEEPING CONDITIONS VFR. IF OTHER MODELS TREND WITH HIGHER
RH...OR UPSTREAM OBS BEGIN TO VALIDATE THE NAM...WILL HAVE TO
CONSIDER LOWER CLOUDS FOR TOMORROW.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DAVIS
TONIGHT/THURSDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...DDV
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...GEHRING
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
445 AM CST TUE JAN 24 2012
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY
303 AM CST TUE JAN 24 2012
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE CLOUD TRENDS TODAY...THEN LIGHT SNOW CHANCE
LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS A CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL ONTARIO. MASSIVE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS LOW WAS PRODUCING
A BROAD FIELD OF STRATUS ACROSS THE REGION. UNDER THIS BLANKET OF
CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES AT 2 AM WERE SITTING IN THE 20-25 DEGREE
RANGE. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE 15-20
DEGREE RANGE BY DAYBREAK IN COLD AIR ADVECTION.
24.00Z MODELS ALL IN PRETTY DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM.
BUFKIT AND MODELED 0.5-1.0KM RH FIELDS SHOW STRATUS
THINNING/CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. OTHERWISE...925MB TEMPERATURES IN THE -3 TO -6C
RANGE TODAY SHOULD TRANSLATE TO HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S.
FOR TONIGHT...A MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OUT OF THE HIGH
PLAINS INTO MN/IA BY 12Z. MODELS SHOWING DECENT 700-300MB
PV-ADVECTION AND QG CONVERGENCE AFTER 06Z MOVING INTO THE AREA.
HOWEVER...BUFKIT SOUNDINGS REVEAL A FAIRLY DRY LOW LEVEL IN THE
LOWEST 4KFT. BALANCING THE FORCING WITH DRY LOWER LEVELS...WILL GO
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE -SN BASICALLY NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM MEDFORD WI
THROUGH WINONA MN TO NEW HAMPTON IA. CONTINUED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
-SN NORTH OF I-94 WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN CLEARING EXPECTED THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON FROM NORTHWEST IN SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE DEPARTING
TROUGH.
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
BE MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA WITH OUR AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR.
WARM FRONTAL MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP
LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE 20S. CLEARING SKIES IN THE WARM SECTOR
INTO THURSDAY AND 925MB TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 0 TO +3C
RANGES SHOULD BOOST HIGHS AT THE SURFACE WELL INTO THE 30S. A COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ROLL INTO THE AREA LATER THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD MAKE PASSAGE PAST PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
303 AM CST TUE JAN 24 2012
24.00Z GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT FOR A CHANCE OF -SN. LOOKS LIKE
A COOL DOWN THEN GOING INTO THE WEEKEND AS A LARGE TROUGH CARVES OUT
OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER/GREAT LAKES REGION. APPEARS THERE
MAY BE A SMALL CHANCE OF -SN ACROSS THE NORTH SATURDAY AS A
SECONDARY MID-LEVEL TROUGH ROTATES THROUGH THAT AREA. ANOTHER SMALL
CHANCE OF -SN FOR THE AREA COMES ALONG ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
ANOTHER WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH ROTATES THROUGH IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. TEMPERATURE-WISE...HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO START OFF IN THE
LOWER-MIDDLE 30S ON FRIDAY...COOLING INTO THE TEENS BY SUNDAY. SOME
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES SHOULD OCCUR MONDAY IN WARM AIR ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THAT INCOMING TROUGH.
&&
.AVIATION...
445 AM CST MON JAN 23 2012
AVIATION FOCUS IS ON HOW QUICKLY THE MOSTLY MVFR 1-2 KFT CEILINGS
WILL ERODE/EXIT THE AREA. LATEST FOG/STRATUS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
A HOLE DEVELOPING IN THE CLOUD SHIELD...WHICH WILL LIKELY BRING A
PERIOD OF SCT SKIES TO KRST EARLY THIS MORNING...AND POSSIBLY
KLSE...BEFORE THE MAIN CLEARING OCCURS. THIS CLEARING MAY GRADUALLY
EXPAND TO FORM THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE LOW CLOUDS...WHICH
RUC13/NAM12 TRENDS WOULD PUSH EAST OF KLSE AROUND 17-18Z.
HOWEVER...THE RUC13 WOULD HOLD A BAND OF MVFR CLOUDS TO THE
WEST...ACROSS SOUTHWEST MN/IA. HOWEVER...IT FAVORS KEEPING THEM WEST
OF KRST...AND THESE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY ERODE AWAY AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. WILL TRY TO TIME THIS HOLE ACROSS KRST...AND THEN WORK
THE WESTERN EDGE VIA THE RUC13/NAM12 SUGGESTIONS. EXPECT SCT
CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.
TONIGHT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST...BRINGING A LOWERING CLOUD DECK TO THE REGION. SOME -SN
COULD BE POSSIBLE AT KRST...BUT IF IT OCCURS...DON/T EXPECT ANY
ACCUMULATION AT THE MOMENT. A RETURN TO MVFR CEILINGS IS ALSO A
POSSIBILITY...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAFS
YET...BUT WILL TREND CIGS DOWN.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
303 AM CST TUE JAN 24 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION.....RIECK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1116 PM CST MON JAN 23 2012
.SHORT TERM...UPDATE
832 PM CST MON JAN 23 2012
HAVE MADE SOME UPDATES TO THE FORECAST FOR SKY CONDITIONS AND
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT AS A STRATUS DECK APPEARS TO BE HOLDING ON
TIGHT ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. LITTLE PROGRESS
HAS BEEN MADE ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STRATUS ACROSS THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ANY HOLES BREAKING INTO
THE THIN STRATUS DECK THROUGHOUT THE REGION. THE CLEARING ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE STRATUS APPEARS TO BE TIED TO THE SURFACE/LOW
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WHICH LOOKS LIKE IT WILL GET INTO SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA/NORTHEAST IOWA SOMETIME AFTER 12Z. THEREFORE...HAVE
SLOWED DOWN THE CLEARING A BIT AND KEPT TEMPERATURES UP ABOUT 5
DEGREES FOR THE OVERNIGHT LOWS DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER. WITH THE
23.18Z NAM AND 24.01Z RUC SOUNDINGS SHOWING AN INVERSION FROM
950MB UP TO 750MB INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON...AM NOT ENTIRELY
CONVINCED THAT SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT BY AFTERNOON DESPITE THE
NAM/RUC SHOWING FAIRLY QUICK DRYING OUT OF THE LOW LEVELS TUESDAY
MORNING.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
230 PM CST MON JAN 23 2012
QUIET WEATHER TO CONTINUE INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS WELL. ZONAL
FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK WHEN ALL THE
MODELS THEN SUGGEST A CUT OFF LOW SHOULD FORM SOME WHERE BETWEEN
HUDSON BAY AND THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES PLACING THE UPPER MIDWEST
ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE DEVELOPING LONG WAVE TROUGH. MODELS
DIFFER ON HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THIS SYSTEM
DEVELOPS. THE 23.12Z GFS IS ALMOST COMPLETELY DRY...THE 23.12Z
ECMWF WAS MUCH STRONGER WITH THE SURFACE LOW AND SHOWS SOME DECENT
PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...WHILE THE 23.12Z GEM SPLIT
THE DIFFERENCE WITH MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION OVER THE EASTERN
PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. FOR NOW...WILL USE THE MODEL CONSENSUS
GRIDS WHICH SHOW A LOW CHANCE OF SOME PRECIPITATION FOR FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY
1116 PM CST MON JAN 23 2012
THE FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON CEILINGS ACROSS THE REGION AS A MVFR
TO VFR STRATUS DECK REMAINS IN PLACE. WHILE MUCH OF THIS DECK IS
CURRENTLY BETWEEN 1KFT TO 2KFT...THERE ARE SOME HOLES STARTING TO
DEVELOP IN THE RELATIVELY CONTINUOUS LAYER OF STRATUS ACROSS
MINNESOTA. THIS INCLUDES A RATHER LARGE AREA THAT EXTENDS FROM
MANKATO NORTH TO ST CLOUD WHERE CEILINGS GO FROM THESE 1KFT TO
2KFT MVFR CONDITIONS UP TO 4KFT VFR CONDITIONS. THIS LIFT TO VFR
LOOKS TO BE INTO RST FAIRLY SOON AS WELL AS LSE AROUND 8/9Z. THE
QUESTION IS HOW LONG THEY WILL LAST AT THAT HEIGHT OR IF THEY WILL
DROP BACK DOWN AT SOME POINT. GIVEN THAT THIS AREA OF VFR CEILINGS
EXTENDS SO FAR UPSTREAM IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW...WOULD EXPECT THAT
THEY PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE MORNING AND HAVE TRENDED
THAT WAY IN THE TAFS. ALSO HAVE BACKED UP THE OVERALL CLEARING A
FEW HOURS TUESDAY MORNING GIVEN THE SLOWER TREND OF THE CLEARING.
MORE MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TUESDAY
EVENING AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
230 PM CST MON JAN 23 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HALBACH
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...HALBACH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
450 AM EST THU JAN 26 2012
.SHORT TERM...
DIFFICULT FCST AGAIN WITH SFC TEMPS ACRS ERN FA LOCKED JUST BLO
FZG IN STRONGLY BACKED SFC FLOW. INCRSG PRES FALLS ACRS XTRM SRN
IN/NRN KY THIS AM AS NRN/SRN STREAM CONT TO PHASE...ALA ECMWF OF
YDAY. IN NEAR TERM FAVORING RUC AND RAPID REFRESH WITH APPARENT
GOOD HANDLE WRT PTYPE/PLACEMENT. WHITTLED AWAY AT ADVISORY WITH
ALL BUT MAUMEE VALLEY NOW ABOVE FZG. BACKED FLOW INTO DRAINAGE
BASIN STILL SUPPORTIVE OF 30-32F SFC TEMPS PER MESONET WITH
COLDEST RMNG IN HEART OF BASIN. HOWEVER WITH IMMEDIATE UPSTREAM
TW MAX OF AROUND 5C INVOF KMIE CONTS NWD ADVANCE...IN RESPONSE TO
INCRSG NERN EXTENSION/DEEPENING OF OH VLY FNTL WAVE...PER 6
MB/3HR COUPLET. CONT W/SHARP GRADIENT WRT POPS WITH HIGHEST IN
STRONG MIDLYR DEFORMATION ZONE AMID I290-295K ISENT LYR UPGLIDE
ACRS SRN/SERN FA...THOUGH A NOD TO HRRR WITH AT LEAST SPRINKLES
WORKING FARTHER NORTH WITH ONLY FAR NWRN CWA ASSUREDLY DRY WITH
NMRS MID MSVLY SHORTWAVES TAKING SHARP EWD PROGRESSION...OVERCOME
BY STRONG DOWNSTREAM CONFLUENCY. OUTSIDE OF NEAR TERM FAVOR NON
NCEP SOLUTIONS...FIRST WITH DEEPER AND MORE LEFT TRACK SFC LOW
INTO CNTL PA OVERNIGHT...FURTHER WWD EXTENSION OF COLD CONVEYOR
BELT AND HOLDING ONTO SLIGHTLY HIR POPS TONIGHT EAST WITH RASN MIX
TO SN. AGAIN HAVE SQUELCHED DIURNAL PEAKS WITH THICK CLOUDS/PRECIP
AND WARM SECTOR NWD ADVANCE FERVENTLY QUELLED. ALSO FAVOR LIES
TOWARD STRONGER NON-NCEP SIGNALS WRT FRIDAY NIGHT CLIPPER SPAWNED
BY ENERGY NOW INTO PAC NW. 70-80KT MIDLVL SHORTWAVE INTO SRN
GRTLKS TO PROVIDE AMPLE LIFT FOR QUICK/LIGHT SN EVENT AND HAVE
RAMPED POPS SIGNIFICANTLY IN DEFERENCE TO SOLIDARITY IN A
ECMWF/GEM/UKMET BLEND.
&&
.LONG TERM... / SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY /
A PIECE OF THE ALASKA POLAR VORTEX WILL BREAK OFF SEWD TO NEAR JAMES
BAY BY THIS WEEKEND...WITH A DIGGING UPPER JET CORE EMERGING ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THIS FEATURE ALLOWING FOR AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH TO
DIG INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. SEVERAL SMALLER SCALE WAVES WILL PIVOT
EWD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WITHIN THIS TROUGH. CVA AND LOW
LVL FGEN WITH THE FIRST SHORTWAVE ORIGINATING FROM THE NE PAC SHOULD
SUPPORT A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE FA FRIDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLY
LINGERING INTO SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. TEMPS ON
SATURDAY WILL TREND COOLER WHEN COMPARED WITH FRIDAY GIVEN
FROPA...STILL REMAINING AOA NORMAL. A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE AND
ATTENDANT POLAR FRONT ARE STILL PROGGED TO TRANSLATE THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH 850 HPA TEMPS FALLING TO BTW M13-M16
ON SUNDAY. THE THERMAL PROFILE...WITH 700 HPA DELTA T/S
25-30C...WILL SUPPORT A RATHER HEALTHY LAKE RESPONSE.
HOWEVER...GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW UNFAVORABLE TRAJECTORIES FOR
MODERATE LES GIVEN 280-290 DEG 92-8H FETCH. STILL...SOME ADDED
LIFT/MOISTURE FROM THE MID LVL IMPULSE AND RATHER SIG LATENT HEAT
FLUX OVER THE LAKE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
MAINLY ALONG/NORTH OF THE TOLL ROAD IN INDIANA/SW LOWER MI. AT THIS
POINT HAVE ACCUMS NEAR 1 INCH IN SW LOWER MI...LESS ELSEWHERE.
OTHERWISE...IT WILL ACTUALLY FEEL LIKE WINTER SUNDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY
FCST TO REACH THE MID/UPPER 20S (STILL ONLY 4-7 DEG BLO NORMAL).
A MODERATING TREND IS STILL IN THE CARDS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS WAA
REGIME SETS UP IN RESPONSE TO EXITING UPPER TROUGH AND BACKING FLOW
IN ADVANCE OF A PACIFIC SHORTWAVE...WHICH DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE DROP INTO THE PLAINS BY TUESDAY. ASSOCIATED HEIGHT FALLS
WILL SUPPORT LOW LVL THETA-E RISES INTO THE OH VALLEY/GREAT LAKES
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THIS OPTED TO RETAINED CHC POPS
FOR RAIN DURING THIS TIME AS 00Z GUIDANCE HAS REMAINED RELATIVELY
CONSISTENT WRT TIMING. FA SHOULD DRY OUT BY WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPS
REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL BEHIND CDFNT AS COLD AIR BECOMES BOTTLED UP
ACROSS NORTHERN CANADA IN PROGRESSIVE PACIFIC WAVE TRAIN PATTERN.
&&
.AVIATION...
06 UTC TAFS. DIFFICULT FCST WRT SFC TEMPS HOVERING JUST AOB FZG
INVOF KFWA THIS AM. INCRSG SFC PRES FALLS CENTERED ACRS FAR SWRN IN
SHOULD ALLOW FOR BACKED/COLD SFC FLOW TO CONT A BIT LONGER ACRS NRN
IN. ADDNLY MAJORITY OF MESONET SFC TEMPS IN 28-32F RANGE ATTM
SUGGESTS COLD SFC. FURTHER SUPPORT FOR PERSISTENCE OF FZRA AT KFWA
GARNERED FM RAPID REFRESH PTYPE/2M TEMPS. WITH A GRDL NWD TREND OF
UPSTREAM DEFORMATION AXIS PRECIP INTENSITY COULD PICK UP AS WELL
NEXT FEW HOURS FOR ADDNL ICE ACCRETION. ALLOW FOR CHANGEOVER TO ALL
RAIN AT 14 UTC AS OH VLY SFC LOW BEGINS TO DOMINATE AS UPSTREAM
NRN/SRN STREAMS PHASE AND WARMING/DEEPENING MAX LYR TW BEGINS TO
OVERWHELM SUBFZG SFC TEMPS. GRTR FCST DIFFICULTY AT KSBN WITH
INITIAL MVFR VSBYS AND INTERMITTENT STRATUS DECK. LWR CIGS /IFR MET
CONDS/ SHOULD CONGEAL AT KSBN LATER THIS AM WITH SAME NRN ADVANCE OF
SUBSEQUENT UPSTREAM WAVES INTO MID MS VLY THEN EWD INTO DOWNSTREAM
CONFLUENCY.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR INZ018.
MI...NONE.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ004-
005-015-016.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...MURPHY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GRAY ME
419 AM EST THU JAN 26 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH TOMORROW. LOW PRESSURE
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST PROMPTING A COASTAL LOW TO DEEPEN ALONG
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND SPREAD RAIN AND SNOW OVER NEW ENGLAND. THE
LOW WILL EXIT INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES FRIDAY NIGHT. A WEAK
TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. A LARGER TROUGH AND COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
BEHIND THE FRONT FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...ADDED SOME NON POP FLURRIES TO THE FCST FOR SRN NH. A
LITTLE BAND OF ENHANCED CIRRUS IS LIKELY PROVIDING SOME SEEDER-
FEEDER MECHANISM TO SPARK A FEW SHSN. HRRR ACTUALLY HAS A PRETTY
GOOD HANDLE ON THIS SAGGING SWD AND EVENTUALLY CLEARING OUT BY
12Z.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MAINLY DEALING WITH CIRRUS CLOUDS
TNGT...WHICH SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND THICKNESS
THRU MORNING. AS THEY DO...TEMPS SHOULD QUICKLY FALL AS SFC RIDGE
AXIS NEARS. QUIET DAY EXPECTED TDY. SEASONABLY MILD TEMPS...USED A
MAV/MET BLEND FOR HIGHS. CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE SW LATE IN THE
DAY...AS SRN STREAM S/WV LIFTS NE TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND. LOW
PROBABILITY THAN -SN/RA MAKES IT INTO FAR SWRN NH THIS
EVE...OTHERWISE PCPN HOLDS OFF UNTIL OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
S/WV ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPR TROF AND SUBSEQUENT SECONDARY
LOW PRES DEVELOPMENT IS THE EASY PART OF THE FCST. THE EXACT
LOCATIONS OF THAT LOW AND THE RESULTING THERMAL PROFILES ARE MUCH
MORE DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN. INITIALLY HIGH PRES WILL BE IN PLACE
AS PCPN APPROACHES NRN NEW ENGLAND. DIURNAL COOLING WILL ALSO HAVE
TEMPERATURES BACK BLO FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE ARE...WITH WET BULB
TEMPS BLO FREEZING FOR THE REST. THIS MEANS PCPN SHOULD BEGIN AS
SNFL FOR EVERYBODY. A QUICK THUMP OF SN WILL QUICKLY CHANGE TO
RAIN ALONG THE COAST...AS ELY WINDS PULL IN ANOMALOUSLY WARM
MARINE AIR.
ACROSS THE INTERIOR THINGS BECOME MUCH LESS CLEAR. DEPARTING HIGH
PRES WILL ALLOW WARM AIR ALOFT TO FLOOD NWD. THIS FAVORS WARM AIR
INVADING THE INTERIOR S OF THE FOOTHILLS AND THE CT RIVER VALLEY
FIRST. HERE SNOW WILL MIX WITH PL BEFORE CHANGING TO FZRA.
SOUNDINGS SHOW A PRETTY GOOD ICE SIGNAL...AND THIS MATCHES WELL
WITH LATEST SREF PROBS. CNTRL NH AND ERN FACING HIGHER TERRAIN
LOOK MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO ICE ACCUMS...AS THIS IS WHERE THE
GREATEST DEPTH OF WARM AIR ALOFT WILL BE. PL WILL HANG ON A LITTLE
LONGER FOR WRN ME...BEFORE THE FOOTHILLS AND INTERIOR SEE FZRA.
ATTM...CANNOT RULE OUT GREATER THAN A QUARTER INCH OF
ICE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NH. THE GOOD NEWS BEING THAT PCPN WILL
COME DOWN HEAVY AT TIMES...ALLOWING FOR BOTH RUNOFF AND LATENT
HEATING DUE TO FREEZING...AS WELL AS OVERALL SHORTER DURATION OF
STEADY PCPN. THIS WILL PUT A LIMIT ON THE TOTAL AMOUNT OF ICE. FOR
THE MTNS OF WRN ME AND FAR NRN COOS...DEEPER COLD AIR WILL ALLOW
FOR A MOSTLY SNOW SCENARIO...WITH WARNING CRITERIA LIKELY. EVEN
HERE A MIX WITH PL IS PSBL BY FRIDAY MORNING. ALL IN ALL THE
COMBINATION OF SN...PL...AND FZRA WILL CREATE VERY HAZARDOUS
TRAVEL CONDS AS WELL AS PSBL TREE DAMAGE AND SUBSEQUENT POWER
OUTAGES.
AS STORM PULLS NEWD ALONG MAINE COASTLINE...DRY SLOT WILL BRING AN
END TO PCPN FRI AFTN. THIS WILL PROBABLY MEAN A PERIOD OF FZDZ
BEFORE COLUMNS DRIES OUT ENOUGH....AS WELL AS UPSLOPE SHSN
DEVELOPING.
TEMPS FRI WILL BE WARMEST ALONG THE COAST...AS THOSE AREAS WILL
CLIMB TO NEAR 40. THE INTERIOR AND MTNS WILL HOVER AOB
FREEZING...AND FAVORED THE COOLER MET FOR STARTERS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ANY MIX OVER FAR EASTERN COUNTIES MAY BRIEFLY CHANGE BACK TO SNOW
BEFORE ENDING FRIDAY EVENING...AS COLD AIR WRAPS AROUND
INTENSIFYING SURFACE LOW. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE EMBEDDED
WITHIN A FAST FLOW AND WILL EXIT THROUGH THE MARITIMES OVERNIGHT
FRIDAY NIGHT.
AN ELONGATED SURFACE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AS IT PASSES THROUGH MAINE
AND NEW HAMPSHIRE LATE FRIDAY. THERE MAY BE A FEW SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT EXPECT THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO HAVE
THE MOST PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WHERE BEST UPSLOPE
CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE. A SIMILAR SCENARIO WILL PLAY ITSELF
OUT LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS
THROUGH MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE.
RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS MONDAY...WILL BE REPLACED BY A BROAD
AREA OF WARM AIR ADVECTION COVERING THE REGION ON TUESDAY. BY
WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW A RARE WINTERTIME TRACK NORTH
OF THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY. 00Z MODEL SUITE MEMBERS ARE
CONSISTENT WITH THIS TRACK. THIS WILL KEEP NEW ENGLAND WITHIN THE
WARM SECTOR...CONTINUING OUR MILD...MID WINTER CONDITIONS AS WE
ENTER FEBRUARY.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...CONDS WILL RAPIDLY DETERIORATE TO IFR OR LOWER AS LOW
PRES APPROACHES FROM THE SW. SN...PL...AND FZRA WILL OVERSPREAD
THE AREA AND CONTINUE INTO FRI. KPSM...KPWM...AND KRKD WILL LIKELY
CHANGE TO RA DURING THU NGT.
LONG TERM...
ANY LEFTOVER AREAS OF LIFR CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY BE IMPROVING
FRIDAY EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL BECOME VFR WITH LOCALIZED MVFR
CLOUD DECK LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF TWO
TROUGHS OF LOW PRESSURE. A MORE BROAD AREA OF IFR CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA CONDS WILL DEVELOP TNGT AS LOW PRES APPROACHES
FROM THE SW.
LONG TERM...
THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF GALES FRIDAY NIGHT BEHIND EXITING
INTENSIFYING SYSTEM.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST
FRIDAY FOR MEZ012>014-018>022-026>028.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST FRIDAY
FOR MEZ007>009.
NH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST
FRIDAY FOR NHZ002>010-013.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST FRIDAY
FOR NHZ001.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
ANZ150>154.
&&
$$
LEGRO/JC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
922 AM EST THU JAN 26 2012
.UPDATE...
HAVE DECIDED TO EXTEND AND EXPAND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR A
FEW HOURS THROUGH MIDDAY AS SOME FREEZING AND/OR FROZEN PRECIP
CONTINUES DESPITE BORDERLINE TEMPERATURES AT MANY SITES. STILL
EXPECT THAT TEMPS WILL WARM ENOUGH IN THE AFTERNOON FOR A
TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN...AND RUC SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA BEAR THIS OUT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 650 AM EST THU JAN 26 2012/
AVIATION...
12 UTC TAFS. DIFFICULT FCST WRT SFC TEMPS HOVERING JUST AOB FZG
INVOF KFWA THIS AM. THOUGH LAST VESTIGES OF FZG TEMPS ANTICIPATED AT
KFWA AS OH VLY SYSTEM LIFTS GRDLY NEWD. SUPPORT FOR PERSISTENCE OF
FZRA IN LIFR MET CONDS AT KFWA NEXT TWO HOURS PER RAPID REFRESH
PTYPE/2M TEMPS. CONT TO ALLOW FOR CHANGEOVER TO ALL RAIN NLT 14 UTC
AS OH VLY SFC LOW BEGINS TO DOMINATE AS UPSTREAM NRN/SRN STREAMS
PHASE AND EXHIBITS INCRSG INFLUECE TO WARM/DEEPEN MAX LYR TW BEGINS
TO OVERWHELM POCKETS OF SUBFZG SFC TEMPS. IFR/FUEL ALT PER MOIST
BLYR TO LKLY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH IF NOT ALL RMNDR OF NRN IN FOR
CRNT FCST CYCLE WITH POST FNTL CHANGEOVER NOTED AT KFWA CLOSER TO
BETTER MSTR PROFILE THIS EVE.
SHORT TERM...
DIFFICULT FCST AGAIN WITH SFC TEMPS ACRS ERN FA LOCKED JUST BLO
FZG IN STRONGLY BACKED SFC FLOW. INCRSG PRES FALLS ACRS XTRM SRN
IN/NRN KY THIS AM AS NRN/SRN STREAM CONT TO PHASE...ALA ECMWF OF
YDAY. IN NEAR TERM FAVORING RUC AND RAPID REFRESH WITH APPARENT
GOOD HANDLE WRT PTYPE/PLACEMENT. WHITTLED AWAY AT ADVISORY WITH
ALL BUT MAUMEE VALLEY NOW ABOVE FZG. BACKED FLOW INTO DRAINAGE
BASIN STILL SUPPORTIVE OF 30-32F SFC TEMPS PER MESONET WITH
COLDEST RMNG IN HEART OF BASIN. HOWEVER WITH IMMEDIATE UPSTREAM
TW MAX OF AROUND 5C INVOF KMIE CONTS NWD ADVANCE...IN RESPONSE TO
INCRSG NERN EXTENSION/DEEPENING OF OH VLY FNTL WAVE...PER 6
MB/3HR COUPLET. CONT W/SHARP GRADIENT WRT POPS WITH HIGHEST IN
STRONG MIDLYR DEFORMATION ZONE AMID I290-295K ISENT LYR UPGLIDE
ACRS SRN/SERN FA...THOUGH A NOD TO HRRR WITH AT LEAST SPRINKLES
WORKING FARTHER NORTH WITH ONLY FAR NWRN CWA ASSUREDLY DRY WITH
NMRS MID MSVLY SHORTWAVES TAKING SHARP EWD PROGRESSION...OVERCOME
BY STRONG DOWNSTREAM CONFLUENCY. OUTSIDE OF NEAR TERM FAVOR NON
NCEP SOLUTIONS...FIRST WITH DEEPER AND MORE LEFT TRACK SFC LOW
INTO CNTL PA OVERNIGHT...FURTHER WWD EXTENSION OF COLD CONVEYOR
BELT AND HOLDING ONTO SLIGHTLY HIR POPS TONIGHT EAST WITH RASN MIX
TO SN. AGAIN HAVE SQUELCHED DIURNAL PEAKS WITH THICK CLOUDS/PRECIP
AND WARM SECTOR NWD ADVANCE FERVENTLY QUELLED. ALSO FAVOR LIES
TOWARD STRONGER NON-NCEP SIGNALS WRT FRIDAY NIGHT CLIPPER SPAWNED
BY ENERGY NOW INTO PAC NW. 70-80KT MIDLVL SHORTWAVE INTO SRN
GRTLKS TO PROVIDE AMPLE LIFT FOR QUICK/LIGHT SN EVENT AND HAVE
RAMPED POPS SIGNIFICANTLY IN DEFERENCE TO SOLIDARITY IN A
ECMWF/GEM/UKMET BLEND.
LONG TERM... / SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY /
A PIECE OF THE ALASKA POLAR VORTEX WILL BREAK OFF SEWD TO NEAR JAMES
BAY BY THIS WEEKEND...WITH A DIGGING UPPER JET CORE EMERGING ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THIS FEATURE ALLOWING FOR AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH TO
DIG INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. SEVERAL SMALLER SCALE WAVES WILL PIVOT
EWD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WITHIN THIS TROUGH. CVA AND LOW
LVL FGEN WITH THE FIRST SHORTWAVE ORIGINATING FROM THE NE PAC SHOULD
SUPPORT A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE FA FRIDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLY
LINGERING INTO SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. TEMPS ON
SATURDAY WILL TREND COOLER WHEN COMPARED WITH FRIDAY GIVEN
FROPA...STILL REMAINING AOA NORMAL. A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE AND
ATTENDANT POLAR FRONT ARE STILL PROGGED TO TRANSLATE THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH 850 HPA TEMPS FALLING TO BTW M13-M16
ON SUNDAY. THE THERMAL PROFILE...WITH 700 HPA DELTA T/S
25-30C...WILL SUPPORT A RATHER HEALTHY LAKE RESPONSE.
HOWEVER...GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW UNFAVORABLE TRAJECTORIES FOR
MODERATE LES GIVEN 280-290 DEG 92-8H FETCH. STILL...SOME ADDED
LIFT/MOISTURE FROM THE MID LVL IMPULSE AND RATHER SIG LATENT HEAT
FLUX OVER THE LAKE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
MAINLY ALONG/NORTH OF THE TOLL ROAD IN INDIANA/SW LOWER MI. AT THIS
POINT HAVE ACCUMS NEAR 1 INCH IN SW LOWER MI...LESS ELSEWHERE.
OTHERWISE...IT WILL ACTUALLY FEEL LIKE WINTER SUNDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY
FCST TO REACH THE MID/UPPER 20S (STILL ONLY 4-7 DEG BLO NORMAL).
A MODERATING TREND IS STILL IN THE CARDS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS WAA
REGIME SETS UP IN RESPONSE TO EXITING UPPER TROUGH AND BACKING FLOW
IN ADVANCE OF A PACIFIC SHORTWAVE...WHICH DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE DROP INTO THE PLAINS BY TUESDAY. ASSOCIATED HEIGHT FALLS
WILL SUPPORT LOW LVL THETA-E RISES INTO THE OH VALLEY/GREAT LAKES
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THIS OPTED TO RETAINED CHC POPS
FOR RAIN DURING THIS TIME AS 00Z GUIDANCE HAS REMAINED RELATIVELY
CONSISTENT WRT TIMING. FA SHOULD DRY OUT BY WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPS
REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL BEHIND CDFNT AS COLD AIR BECOMES BOTTLED UP
ACROSS NORTHERN CANADA IN PROGRESSIVE PACIFIC WAVE TRAIN PATTERN.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
INZ008- 009-016>018.
MI...NONE.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR OHZ001-
002-004-005-015-016.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...JC
UPDATE...NIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
650 AM EST THU JAN 26 2012
.AVIATION...
12 UTC TAFS. DIFFICULT FCST WRT SFC TEMPS HOVERING JUST AOB FZG
INVOF KFWA THIS AM. THOUGH LAST VESTIGES OF FZG TEMPS ANTICIPATED AT
KFWA AS OH VLY SYSTEM LIFTS GRDLY NEWD. SUPPORT FOR PERSISTENCE OF
FZRA IN LIFR MET CONDS AT KFWA NEXT TWO HOURS PER RAPID REFRESH
PTYPE/2M TEMPS. CONT TO ALLOW FOR CHANGEOVER TO ALL RAIN NLT 14 UTC
AS OH VLY SFC LOW BEGINS TO DOMINATE AS UPSTREAM NRN/SRN STREAMS
PHASE AND EXHIBITS INCRSG INFLUECE TO WARM/DEEPEN MAX LYR TW BEGINS
TO OVERWHELM POCKETS OF SUBFZG SFC TEMPS. IFR/FUEL ALT PER MOIST
BLYR TO LKLY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH IF NOT ALL RMNDR OF NRN IN FOR
CRNT FCST CYCLE WITH POST FNTL CHANGEOVER NOTED AT KFWA CLOSER TO
BETTER MSTR PROFILE THIS EVE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
DIFFICULT FCST AGAIN WITH SFC TEMPS ACRS ERN FA LOCKED JUST BLO
FZG IN STRONGLY BACKED SFC FLOW. INCRSG PRES FALLS ACRS XTRM SRN
IN/NRN KY THIS AM AS NRN/SRN STREAM CONT TO PHASE...ALA ECMWF OF
YDAY. IN NEAR TERM FAVORING RUC AND RAPID REFRESH WITH APPARENT
GOOD HANDLE WRT PTYPE/PLACEMENT. WHITTLED AWAY AT ADVISORY WITH
ALL BUT MAUMEE VALLEY NOW ABOVE FZG. BACKED FLOW INTO DRAINAGE
BASIN STILL SUPPORTIVE OF 30-32F SFC TEMPS PER MESONET WITH
COLDEST RMNG IN HEART OF BASIN. HOWEVER WITH IMMEDIATE UPSTREAM
TW MAX OF AROUND 5C INVOF KMIE CONTS NWD ADVANCE...IN RESPONSE TO
INCRSG NERN EXTENSION/DEEPENING OF OH VLY FNTL WAVE...PER 6
MB/3HR COUPLET. CONT W/SHARP GRADIENT WRT POPS WITH HIGHEST IN
STRONG MIDLYR DEFORMATION ZONE AMID I290-295K ISENT LYR UPGLIDE
ACRS SRN/SERN FA...THOUGH A NOD TO HRRR WITH AT LEAST SPRINKLES
WORKING FARTHER NORTH WITH ONLY FAR NWRN CWA ASSUREDLY DRY WITH
NMRS MID MSVLY SHORTWAVES TAKING SHARP EWD PROGRESSION...OVERCOME
BY STRONG DOWNSTREAM CONFLUENCY. OUTSIDE OF NEAR TERM FAVOR NON
NCEP SOLUTIONS...FIRST WITH DEEPER AND MORE LEFT TRACK SFC LOW
INTO CNTL PA OVERNIGHT...FURTHER WWD EXTENSION OF COLD CONVEYOR
BELT AND HOLDING ONTO SLIGHTLY HIR POPS TONIGHT EAST WITH RASN MIX
TO SN. AGAIN HAVE SQUELCHED DIURNAL PEAKS WITH THICK CLOUDS/PRECIP
AND WARM SECTOR NWD ADVANCE FERVENTLY QUELLED. ALSO FAVOR LIES
TOWARD STRONGER NON-NCEP SIGNALS WRT FRIDAY NIGHT CLIPPER SPAWNED
BY ENERGY NOW INTO PAC NW. 70-80KT MIDLVL SHORTWAVE INTO SRN
GRTLKS TO PROVIDE AMPLE LIFT FOR QUICK/LIGHT SN EVENT AND HAVE
RAMPED POPS SIGNIFICANTLY IN DEFERENCE TO SOLIDARITY IN A
ECMWF/GEM/UKMET BLEND.
&&
.LONG TERM... / SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY /
A PIECE OF THE ALASKA POLAR VORTEX WILL BREAK OFF SEWD TO NEAR JAMES
BAY BY THIS WEEKEND...WITH A DIGGING UPPER JET CORE EMERGING ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THIS FEATURE ALLOWING FOR AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH TO
DIG INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. SEVERAL SMALLER SCALE WAVES WILL PIVOT
EWD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WITHIN THIS TROUGH. CVA AND LOW
LVL FGEN WITH THE FIRST SHORTWAVE ORIGINATING FROM THE NE PAC SHOULD
SUPPORT A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE FA FRIDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLY
LINGERING INTO SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. TEMPS ON
SATURDAY WILL TREND COOLER WHEN COMPARED WITH FRIDAY GIVEN
FROPA...STILL REMAINING AOA NORMAL. A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE AND
ATTENDANT POLAR FRONT ARE STILL PROGGED TO TRANSLATE THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH 850 HPA TEMPS FALLING TO BTW M13-M16
ON SUNDAY. THE THERMAL PROFILE...WITH 700 HPA DELTA T/S
25-30C...WILL SUPPORT A RATHER HEALTHY LAKE RESPONSE.
HOWEVER...GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW UNFAVORABLE TRAJECTORIES FOR
MODERATE LES GIVEN 280-290 DEG 92-8H FETCH. STILL...SOME ADDED
LIFT/MOISTURE FROM THE MID LVL IMPULSE AND RATHER SIG LATENT HEAT
FLUX OVER THE LAKE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
MAINLY ALONG/NORTH OF THE TOLL ROAD IN INDIANA/SW LOWER MI. AT THIS
POINT HAVE ACCUMS NEAR 1 INCH IN SW LOWER MI...LESS ELSEWHERE.
OTHERWISE...IT WILL ACTUALLY FEEL LIKE WINTER SUNDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY
FCST TO REACH THE MID/UPPER 20S (STILL ONLY 4-7 DEG BLO NORMAL).
A MODERATING TREND IS STILL IN THE CARDS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS WAA
REGIME SETS UP IN RESPONSE TO EXITING UPPER TROUGH AND BACKING FLOW
IN ADVANCE OF A PACIFIC SHORTWAVE...WHICH DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE DROP INTO THE PLAINS BY TUESDAY. ASSOCIATED HEIGHT FALLS
WILL SUPPORT LOW LVL THETA-E RISES INTO THE OH VALLEY/GREAT LAKES
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THIS OPTED TO RETAINED CHC POPS
FOR RAIN DURING THIS TIME AS 00Z GUIDANCE HAS REMAINED RELATIVELY
CONSISTENT WRT TIMING. FA SHOULD DRY OUT BY WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPS
REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL BEHIND CDFNT AS COLD AIR BECOMES BOTTLED UP
ACROSS NORTHERN CANADA IN PROGRESSIVE PACIFIC WAVE TRAIN PATTERN.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR INZ018.
MI...NONE.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ004-
005-015-016.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...MURPHY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
420 AM MST THU JAN 26 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
LATEST SATELLITE AND RUC UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOW WESTERLY FLOW
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND A CLOSED LOW OVER TEXAS. SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS AS WELL AS STRONG WINDS AND A BRIEF WARM UP WERE
OBSERVED AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONT MOVED THROUGH
THE HIGH PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SATURDAY)...
250 AM MST THU JAN 26 2012
CONCERNS FOR THIS PERIOD WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES/PHASE THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AND WINDS FRIDAY.
TODAY...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS DRY AIR AND THE RIGHT
EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET WILL BE OVER THE AREA BEHIND
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AS IT MOVES EAST. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE
THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON TURNING THE WINDS TO THE SOUTH BEHIND
IT.
TONIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
DURING THE NIGHT ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...EXTENDING SOUTHEAST TOWARD OBERLIN AND HILL CITY. MODELS
HAVE THE MOISTURE MOVING IN SOONER THAN AT THIS TIME YESTERDAY.
HOWEVER THERE IS A WARM DRY LAYER BETWEEN THE MOISTURE AND THE
SURFACE. WITH THE LIFT EXTENDING WELL INTO THE DEEP MOISTURE ABOVE
THIS LAYER...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION FROM
OCCURRING. CURRENTLY THINKING PRECIPITATION WILL START OFF AS RAIN
DURING THE EVENING DUE TO THE WARM NOSE IN PLACE. OVERNIGHT THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW AS COOLER AIR MOVES
IN.
FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE MORNING
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. AS THE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NEARS
THE AREA...700MB TO 300MB FRONTOGENESIS BEGINS TO MOVE OVER EAST
CENTRAL COLORADO AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS. WITH THE ENVIRONMENT
BECOMING MORE MOIST AS COOLER AIR MOVES IN...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION FROM OCCURRING OVER THOSE AREAS DURING THE
MORNING. AM THINKING THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW AS COOLER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE IN...WITH A CHANGE TO ALL SNOW BY
MID MORNING. THERE IS THE REMOTE CHANCE OF SOME FREEZING
RAIN/DRIZZLE OCCURRING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...BUT PER
CROSS SECTION ANALYSIS AND SREF PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES AM
THINKING THE COOLER AIR SHOULD MOVE THROUGH QUICK ENOUGH FOR ANY
FREEZING PRECIPITATION THREAT TO BE NEGLIGIBLE. DID INCLUDE A MIX
OF SPRINKLES AND FLURRIES OVER THE MCCOOK TO HILL CITY AREA DURING
THE EARLY MORNING AS THERE IS SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THOSE
AREAS BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. DURING THE AFTERNOON
DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AS IT
PROGRESSES OUT OF THE AREA BRINGING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO AN
END.
WINDS WILL BE A CONCERN DURING THE DAY AS A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND STRONG 850MB WINDS CAUSE WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH...WITH
GUSTS OF 50 MPH...TO DEVELOP DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...A SURFACE HIGH MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A SURFACE TROUGH SATURDAY.
850MB WINDS WILL BE STRONG OVER THE MCCOOK AND HILL CITY AREAS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT THAT AREA COULD SEE GUSTS OF 35
MPH. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE COOLEST FRIDAY...WITH
NEAR NORMAL VALES...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. LOWS
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR TONIGHT BUT COOL TO NORMAL VALUES FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM (SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY)...
250 AM MST THU JAN 26 2012
FORECAST AREA UNDER
NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WHEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH. AT THIS TIME AM EXPECTING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND SOME
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. IN FACT...MAY SEE BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS
WHICH IS CURRENTLY NOT DEPICTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AS THERE
ARE VARYING DEGREES OF INTENSITY WITH THIS TROUGH PASSAGE. OTHER
CONCERN TUESDAY AFTERNOON IS FIRE WEATHER. CURRENT RH FORECASTS OF
20-25 PERCENT EXIST ALONG AND WEST OF THE CO/KS BORDER. ADD THE
POSSIBILITY OF STRONGER THEN ADVERTISED WINDS AND FIRE WEATHER
HIGHLITES MAY BE NEEDED.
DISAGREEMENT IN THE UPPER PATTERN DEVELOPS BEHIND THIS TROUGH
PASSAGE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. FOR THE PRESENT TIME NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE WARMEST DAY MONDAY
WHERE MID TO UPPER 50S EXPECTED. BASED ON 850 TEMPS AROUND 10C CANT
RULE OUT A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE 60S. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
20S WHICH TOO IS ABOVE NORMAL.
007
&&
.AVIATION...
420 AM MST THU JAN 26 2012
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK. GUSTY NW WINDS TO
DEVELOP MID TO LATE MORNING BEFORE QUICKLY DECREASING TO LESS THEN
5KTS BY MID AFTERNOON AS A SFC TROUGH DEVELOPS. S/SW WINDS 10-15KTS
TO REDEVELOP BY 01Z-03Z AND COULD BE GUSTY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
THAT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH BOTH TERMINALS AROUND 10Z FRIDAY MORNING.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT WITH CIGS AROUND 8K FT BY 10Z FRIDAY
MORNING. MAY SEE SLIGHTLY LOWER CIGS THEN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. A BIT TOO FAR OUT RIGHT NOW TO INCLUDE IN
THE TAF.
007
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
250 AM MST THU JAN 26 2012
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 20 TO 25 PERCENT WILL BE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE TRI-STATE AREA. WINDS DURING THE DAY
WILL BE AROUND 20 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE WHICH MAY
LEAD TO HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
ON TUESDAY RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 20 TO 25 PERCENT WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER EAST CENTRAL COLORADO. WIND GUSTS OF 25 MPH MAY LEAD
TO HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
JTL
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
308 AM MST THU JAN 26 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
LATEST SATELLITE AND RUC UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOW WESTERLY FLOW
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND A CLOSED LOW OVER TEXAS. SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS AS WELL AS STRONG WINDS AND A BRIEF WARM UP WERE
OBSERVED AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONT MOVED THROUGH
THE HIGH PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SATURDAY)...
250 AM MST THU JAN 26 2012
CONCERNS FOR THIS PERIOD WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES/PHASE THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AND WINDS FRIDAY.
TODAY...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS DRY AIR AND THE RIGHT
EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET WILL BE OVER THE AREA BEHIND
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AS IT MOVES EAST. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE
THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON TURNING THE WINDS TO THE SOUTH BEHIND
IT.
TONIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
DURING THE NIGHT ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...EXTENDING SOUTHEAST TOWARD OBERLIN AND HILL CITY. MODELS HAVE
THE MOISTURE MOVING IN SOONER THAN AT THIS TIME YESTERDAY. HOWEVER
THERE IS A WARM DRY LAYER BETWEEN THE MOISTURE AND THE SURFACE.
WITH THE LIFT EXTENDING WELL INTO THE DEEP MOISTURE ABOVE THIS
LAYER...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION FROM
OCCURRING. CURRENTLY THINKING PRECIPITATION WILL START OFF AS RAIN
DURING THE EVENING DUE TO THE WARM NOSE IN PLACE. OVERNIGHT THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW AS COOLER AIR MOVES
IN.
FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE MORNING
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. AS THE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NEARS
THE AREA...700MB TO 300MB FRONTOGENESIS BEGINS TO MOVE OVER EAST
CENTRAL COLORADO AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS. WITH THE ENVIRONMENT
BECOMING MORE MOIST AS COOLER AIR MOVES IN...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION FROM OCCURRING OVER THOSE AREAS DURING THE
MORNING. AM THINKING THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW AS COOLER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE IN...WITH A CHANGE TO ALL SNOW BY
MID MORNING. THERE IS THE REMOTE CHANCE OF SOME FREEZING
RAIN/DRIZZLE OCCURRING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...BUT PER
CROSS SECTION ANALYSIS AND SREF PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES AM
THINKING THE COOLER AIR SHOULD MOVE THROUGH QUICK ENOUGH FOR ANY
FREEZING PRECIPITATION THREAT TO BE NEGLIGIBLE. DID INCLUDE A MIX
OF SPRINKLES AND FLURRIES OVER THE MCCOOK TO HILL CITY AREA DURING
THE EARLY MORNING AS THERE IS SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THOSE
AREAS BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. DURING THE AFTERNOON
DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AS IT
PROGRESSES OUT OF THE AREA BRINGING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO AN
END.
WINDS WILL BE A CONCERN DURING THE DAY AS A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND STRONG 850MB WINDS CAUSE WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH...WITH
GUSTS OF 50 MPH...TO DEVELOP DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...A SURFACE HIGH MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A SURFACE TROUGH SATURDAY.
850MB WINDS WILL BE STRONG OVER THE MCCOOK AND HILL CITY AREAS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT THAT AREA COULD SEE GUSTS OF 35
MPH. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE COOLEST FRIDAY...WITH
NEAR NORMAL VALES...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. LOWS
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR TONIGHT BUT COOL TO NORMAL VALUES FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM (SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY)...
250 AM MST THU JAN 26 2012
FORECAST AREA UNDER
NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WHEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH. AT THIS TIME AM EXPECTING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND SOME
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. IN FACT...MAY SEE BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS
WHICH IS CURRENTLY NOT DEPICTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AS THERE
ARE VARYING DEGREES OF INTENSITY WITH THIS TROUGH PASSAGE. OTHER
CONCERN TUESDAY AFTERNOON IS FIRE WEATHER. CURRENT RH FORECASTS OF
20-25 PERCENT EXIST ALONG AND WEST OF THE CO/KS BORDER. ADD THE
POSSIBILITY OF STRONGER THEN ADVERTISED WINDS AND FIRE WEATHER
HIGHLITES MAY BE NEEDED.
DISAGREEMENT IN THE UPPER PATTERN DEVELOPS BEHIND THIS TROUGH
PASSAGE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. FOR THE PRESENT TIME NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE WARMEST DAY MONDAY
WHERE MID TO UPPER 50S EXPECTED. BASED ON 850 TEMPS AROUND 10C CANT
RULE OUT A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE 60S. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
20S WHICH TOO IS ABOVE NORMAL.
007
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1005 PM MST WED JAN 25 2012
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS OVERNIGHT
AND MUCH OF THE DAY ON THURSDAY WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AFTER 00Z FRIDAY
AS THE SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE EAST OF THE REGION.
IN ADDITION...MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AFTER 00Z IN ADVANCE OF
AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
250 AM MST THU JAN 26 2012
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 20 TO 25 PERCENT WILL BE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE TRI-STATE AREA. WINDS DURING THE DAY WILL BE
AROUND 20 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE WHICH MAY LEAD TO
HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
ON TUESDAY RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 20 TO 25 PERCENT WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER EAST CENTRAL COLORADO. WIND GUSTS OF 25 MPH MAY LEAD
TO HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
JTL
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GRAY ME
606 AM EST THU JAN 26 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH TOMORROW. LOW PRESSURE
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST PROMPTING A COASTAL LOW TO DEEPEN ALONG
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND SPREAD RAIN AND SNOW OVER NEW ENGLAND. THE
LOW WILL EXIT INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES FRIDAY NIGHT. A WEAK
TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. A LARGER TROUGH AND COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
BEHIND THE FRONT FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...INPUT CURRENT OBS AND TRENDED TO FCST FROM THERE.
0900Z UPDATE...ADDED SOME NON POP FLURRIES TO THE FCST FOR SRN
NH. A LITTLE BAND OF ENHANCED CIRRUS IS LIKELY PROVIDING SOME
SEEDER- FEEDER MECHANISM TO SPARK A FEW SHSN. HRRR ACTUALLY HAS A
PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON THIS SAGGING SWD AND EVENTUALLY CLEARING OUT
BY 12Z.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MAINLY DEALING WITH CIRRUS CLOUDS
TNGT...WHICH SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND THICKNESS
THRU MORNING. AS THEY DO...TEMPS SHOULD QUICKLY FALL AS SFC RIDGE
AXIS NEARS. QUIET DAY EXPECTED TDY. SEASONABLY MILD TEMPS...USED A
MAV/MET BLEND FOR HIGHS. CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE SW LATE IN THE
DAY...AS SRN STREAM S/WV LIFTS NE TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND. LOW
PROBABILITY THAN -SN/RA MAKES IT INTO FAR SWRN NH THIS
EVE...OTHERWISE PCPN HOLDS OFF UNTIL OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
S/WV ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPR TROF AND SUBSEQUENT SECONDARY
LOW PRES DEVELOPMENT IS THE EASY PART OF THE FCST. THE EXACT
LOCATIONS OF THAT LOW AND THE RESULTING THERMAL PROFILES ARE MUCH
MORE DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN. INITIALLY HIGH PRES WILL BE IN PLACE
AS PCPN APPROACHES NRN NEW ENGLAND. DIURNAL COOLING WILL ALSO HAVE
TEMPERATURES BACK BLO FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE ARE...WITH WET BULB
TEMPS BLO FREEZING FOR THE REST. THIS MEANS PCPN SHOULD BEGIN AS
SNFL FOR EVERYBODY. A QUICK THUMP OF SN WILL QUICKLY CHANGE TO
RAIN ALONG THE COAST...AS ELY WINDS PULL IN ANOMALOUSLY WARM
MARINE AIR.
ACROSS THE INTERIOR THINGS BECOME MUCH LESS CLEAR. DEPARTING HIGH
PRES WILL ALLOW WARM AIR ALOFT TO FLOOD NWD. THIS FAVORS WARM AIR
INVADING THE INTERIOR S OF THE FOOTHILLS AND THE CT RIVER VALLEY
FIRST. HERE SNOW WILL MIX WITH PL BEFORE CHANGING TO FZRA.
SOUNDINGS SHOW A PRETTY GOOD ICE SIGNAL...AND THIS MATCHES WELL
WITH LATEST SREF PROBS. CNTRL NH AND ERN FACING HIGHER TERRAIN
LOOK MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO ICE ACCUMS...AS THIS IS WHERE THE
GREATEST DEPTH OF WARM AIR ALOFT WILL BE. PL WILL HANG ON A LITTLE
LONGER FOR WRN ME...BEFORE THE FOOTHILLS AND INTERIOR SEE FZRA.
ATTM...CANNOT RULE OUT GREATER THAN A QUARTER INCH OF
ICE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NH. THE GOOD NEWS BEING THAT PCPN WILL
COME DOWN HEAVY AT TIMES...ALLOWING FOR BOTH RUNOFF AND LATENT
HEATING DUE TO FREEZING...AS WELL AS OVERALL SHORTER DURATION OF
STEADY PCPN. THIS WILL PUT A LIMIT ON THE TOTAL AMOUNT OF ICE. FOR
THE MTNS OF WRN ME AND FAR NRN COOS...DEEPER COLD AIR WILL ALLOW
FOR A MOSTLY SNOW SCENARIO...WITH WARNING CRITERIA LIKELY. EVEN
HERE A MIX WITH PL IS PSBL BY FRIDAY MORNING. ALL IN ALL THE
COMBINATION OF SN...PL...AND FZRA WILL CREATE VERY HAZARDOUS
TRAVEL CONDS AS WELL AS PSBL TREE DAMAGE AND SUBSEQUENT POWER
OUTAGES.
AS STORM PULLS NEWD ALONG MAINE COASTLINE...DRY SLOT WILL BRING AN
END TO PCPN FRI AFTN. THIS WILL PROBABLY MEAN A PERIOD OF FZDZ
BEFORE COLUMNS DRIES OUT ENOUGH....AS WELL AS UPSLOPE SHSN
DEVELOPING.
TEMPS FRI WILL BE WARMEST ALONG THE COAST...AS THOSE AREAS WILL
CLIMB TO NEAR 40. THE INTERIOR AND MTNS WILL HOVER AOB
FREEZING...AND FAVORED THE COOLER MET FOR STARTERS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ANY MIX OVER FAR EASTERN COUNTIES MAY BRIEFLY CHANGE BACK TO SNOW
BEFORE ENDING FRIDAY EVENING...AS COLD AIR WRAPS AROUND
INTENSIFYING SURFACE LOW. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE EMBEDDED
WITHIN A FAST FLOW AND WILL EXIT THROUGH THE MARITIMES OVERNIGHT
FRIDAY NIGHT.
AN ELONGATED SURFACE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AS IT PASSES THROUGH MAINE
AND NEW HAMPSHIRE LATE FRIDAY. THERE MAY BE A FEW SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT EXPECT THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO HAVE
THE MOST PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WHERE BEST UPSLOPE
CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE. A SIMILAR SCENARIO WILL PLAY ITSELF
OUT LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS
THROUGH MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE.
RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS MONDAY...WILL BE REPLACED BY A BROAD
AREA OF WARM AIR ADVECTION COVERING THE REGION ON TUESDAY. BY
WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW A RARE WINTERTIME TRACK NORTH
OF THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY. 00Z MODEL SUITE MEMBERS ARE
CONSISTENT WITH THIS TRACK. THIS WILL KEEP NEW ENGLAND WITHIN THE
WARM SECTOR...CONTINUING OUR MILD...MID WINTER CONDITIONS AS WE
ENTER FEBRUARY.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...CONDS WILL RAPIDLY DETERIORATE TO IFR OR LOWER AS LOW
PRES APPROACHES FROM THE SW. SN...PL...AND FZRA WILL OVERSPREAD
THE AREA AND CONTINUE INTO FRI. KPSM...KPWM...AND KRKD WILL LIKELY
CHANGE TO RA DURING THU NGT.
LONG TERM...
ANY LEFTOVER AREAS OF LIFR CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY BE IMPROVING
FRIDAY EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL BECOME VFR WITH LOCALIZED MVFR
CLOUD DECK LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF TWO
TROUGHS OF LOW PRESSURE. A MORE BROAD AREA OF IFR CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA CONDS WILL DEVELOP TNGT AS LOW PRES APPROACHES
FROM THE SW.
LONG TERM...
THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF GALES FRIDAY NIGHT BEHIND EXITING
INTENSIFYING SYSTEM.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST
FRIDAY FOR MEZ012>014-018>022-026>028.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST FRIDAY
FOR MEZ007>009.
NH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST
FRIDAY FOR NHZ002>010-013.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST FRIDAY
FOR NHZ001.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
ANZ150>154.
&&
$$
LEGRO/JC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
548 AM CST THU JAN 26 2012
...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.DISCUSSION...
/406 AM CST THU JAN 26 2012/
In the very short term dense fog has rapidly formed on the western
fringe of the stratus deck which has been steadily backing up to the
northwest and towards the northwest corner of MO. Local observations
and calls to law enforcement across northern MO indicates areas of
dense fog has been forming/spreading across this area as well. Last
couple of runs of the SREF fog product did a reasonably good job of
picking out these areas for potential dense fog. The dense fog will
stick through the morning commute to work and prudent action to take
is to issue a dense fog advisory. Conditions will likely improve
quickly by mid morning.
Otherwise, the closed upper low over TX will phase in with the
shortwave now digging southeast through the Dakotas. An associated
windshift line with gusty wnw to nw winds will sweep through the CWA
this morning/early afternoon and clean out the extensive stratus
deck. Can`t call this a cold front as temperatures are in the
mid/upper 30s across the Dakotas...thanks to a dry downslope flow.
Inspection of 00z NAM/GFS Bufr soundings and the aforementioned
downslope winds suggest going a tad warmer on max temperatures south
of the MO River.
Attention will then turn to a fast moving upper level impulse
embedded within the fast nearly zonal flow now approaching the West
Coast that will streak through the Central Plains on Friday. Models
have been vacillating for the past couple of days as to how far
south any precipitation will fall. They have been reasonably
consistent that IA and northern MO will most likely have the best
chance for precipitation. Model consensus favors a slightly more
southern track to the upper level impulse with a fair amount of
Pacific moisture to work with. Given the layered, albeit weak,
frontogenesis and favorable isentropic ascent sweeping across much
of the CWA confidence has increased enough to raise pops
considerably with likely pops for northern MO warranted. With the
precipitation likely delayed until mid morning over northwest MO
surface temperatures should be above freezing. Sounding profiles
across northern MO indicate a top-down saturation process with a
very dry sub-cloud region with a warm nose lying under the cloud
base. No longer believe freezing precipitation is possible so
precipitation type will be mainly liquid although brief periods of a
rain/snow mix will be possible.
This system will be quite progressive so the rain and any snow will
exit the CWa by Friday evening. A weak cold front will move through
the CWA on Friday but by Saturday boundary layer winds will have a
decided westerly component to them so not much of a cool down
expected on Saturday. In fact, temperatures will once again be above
normal, although not to the extent of recent days.
MJ
Medium Range (Sunday-Thursday)...
After a day with near normal temperatures on Sunday, thanks to
residual northwest flow behind a departing upper trough, we`ll begin
to focus on yet another sustained period of above normal
temperatures. The longwave pattern will continue to feature rather
progressive flow aloft with higher than normal heights for this time
of the year.
For Monday and Monday night: We`ll begin watching yet another
progressive shortwave move into the Pacific Northwest Monday and
across the central CONUS Tuesday. As this shortwave approaches the
Rockies, it will induce a rapid response in low level thermal in
wind fields by Monday morning. 925:850 temperatures between 6C and
8C will advect over the region with a breezy southwesterly wind
developing. Numerical model guidance seems to be clustered in the
lower 50s. However, given the pattern setup feel that readings will
most likely be closer to those of the latest ECMWF with potential to
reach the middle and upper 50s. Thus will bump readings up, which
may need to be repeated in later forecast. Monday night will
feature warm conditions again as surface troughing begins to
approach the region from the northwest. The surface pressure
gradient will not relax much Monday night and conditions will remain
rather mixy. This should hold temperatures (along with an increase
in stratus) in the upper 30s to 40s or above typical high
temperatures values.
Tuesday-Wednesday: The aforementioned shortwave will pass through
the region. The ECMWF remains further north and weaker than the
GFS. Nevertheless, moisture will struggle to reach the area and
would anticipate little more than very light showers or drizzle
embedded in stratus that advects northward ahead of the surface
boundary. Temperatures will have little problem climb well into the
50s for Tuesday. The airmass behind this front will be Pacific in
nature and the modified airmass will provide little to no cooldown
for Wednesday. A westerly wind will promote temperatures climbing
well into the 50s yet again and these readings have the potential to
climb even higher.
Dux
&&
.AVIATION...
For the 12Z TAFs...LIFR fog/stratus has formed and spread across
west central and northwest MO this morning. Local aviation
climatological studies suggest these conditions could linger for
most of the morning. Latest HRRR visibility and SREF progs show
similar forecasts. With that in mind will extend the LIFR
fog/stratus for an additional 1-2 hours. Drier and stronger
northwest winds arriving around the noon hour should scour out
this mess.
Thereafter, VFR conditions expected. The gusty winds will subside
shortly before sunset as deeper mixing ends. Increasing mid level
clouds after midnight will announce the arrival of the next system
approaching the region. Any precipitation will hold off until after
this forecast.
MJ
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR MOZ003>008-
012>017-020>024-028>031-037-038-043-044-053.
KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR KSZ025-057-
060-102>105.
&&
$$
WFO EAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
924 AM EST THU JAN 26 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. A WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS FROM THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 915 AM THURS...EXTENDED MENTION OF DENSE FOG FOR FAR INLAND
COUNTIES FROM DUPLIN TO MARTIN THROUGH WESTERN BEUFORT COUNTIES
UNTIL 16Z...AS BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING IS TAKING A BIT LONGER THAN
EXPECTED. AREA OF STRONGER MID LEVEL WAA/VORTICITY IS BRINGING A
BATCH OF LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHERN COAST OF NC. RUC GUIDANCE
INDICATES THIS AREA OF ENERGY WILL MOVE NORTH NORTHEAST AND SLOWLY
WEAKEN THROUGH THE MORNING. BUMPED UP POPS TO SCT ALONG THE COAST
TO ISOLATED FOR INLAND AREAS AS THIS FEATURE MOVES NORTH. THIS
BATCH OF RAIN SHOULD ALSO CAUSE DENSE FOG TO DISSPATE THROUGH 16Z.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WENT A FEW DEGREES ABOVE BLENDED
BIAS-CORRECTED MOS GIVEN STRONG WAA. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES
INCREASE TO 1370-1375 METERS THIS AFTERNOON WHICH ALSO SUGGEST
TEMPS IN THE LOW 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 425 AM THURS...COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THIS
EVENING THEN CROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND GUST NEAR
20 MPH OVERNIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE WARM GIVEN SIGNIFICANT WAA AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT...WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S ACROSS EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...SHARP MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE
REGION ON FRIDAY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF MUCH-NEEDED RAINFALL TO
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. RAIN WILL ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
DAY FRIDAY WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z AND
18Z...COINCIDENT WITH THE MOST IMPRESSIVE 850 MB THETA-E RIDGING
AND DEEP MOISTURE FLUX/PRECIPITABLE WATER AXIS. INSTABILITY IS
STILL RATHER MARGINAL...BUT WILL MENTION SOME ISOLATED THUNDER
EMBEDDED IN THE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL...GIVEN CROSS-TOTAL IN THE MID
20S...NORMALLY A GOOD INDICATOR OF ELEVATED THUNDER. GUSTY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PUSH MAX TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 70
DESPITE THE CLOUDS AND PRECIP. QPF TOTAL SHOULD BE IN THE ONE
THIRD TO ONE HALF INCH RANGE...NOTHING TERRIBLY HEAVY BUT MUCH
NEEDED GIVEN THE D-1 DROUGHT STATUS FOR MUCH OF EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA. GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF THAT BULK OF PRECIP
WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BY 18Z TO 21Z FRIDAY WITH GRADUAL CLEARING
OVERNIGHT. ANTICIPATE CLEAR AND COOLER CONDITIONS SATURDAY AND
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS EAST OVER THE
CAROLINAS. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 30S SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY MORNING...AND LIKELY TO BELOW FREEZING OVER MANY AREAS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNING. DAYTIME HIGHS THRU THE PERIOD WILL
REMAIN NEAR THE NORMAL VALUE IN THE 50S.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 715 AM THURS...FOG/LOW STRATUS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 13-14Z
ACROSS ALL TAF SITES. CLEAR SKIES WILL HELP TO INDUCE MIXING OUT
OF FOG/LOW STRATUS THIS MORNING. VFR EXPECTED TODAY AND THIS
EVENING WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING NEAR 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON
AS MIXING WILL BE ENHANCED DUE TO 30 KT LOW LEVEL JET. BUFKIT
MOMENTUM TRANSPORT VALUES ALSO RANGE 18-22 KNOTS.
WINDS WILL REMAIN 5-10 KNOTS FROM THE S/SSW TONIGHT AHEAD A COLD
FRONT PROGGED TO CROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH FRI
MORNING. LOW STRATUS IS AGAIN EXPECTED TONIGHT GIVEN MOISTENING
BOUNDARY LAYER WITH SHOWERS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AROUND 06Z. GUIDANCE
IS ALSO HITTING REDUCED VISIBILITIES AS LOW AS 1SM BUT EXPECT
SURFACE WINDS TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO INHIBIT FOG RESTRICTIONS LESS
THAN 2SM. LATEST NAM12/GFS40 AND LOCAL WRF INDICATE SHOWERS WILL
BEGIN IMPACTING ISO/PGV AROUND 08Z THEN OAJ/EWN AROUND 09Z.
/LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 305 AM THURSDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED
TSTMS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY...EXPECT MVFR WITH SOME BOUTS OF IFR THRU
LATE AFTERNOON. BEYOND FRIDAY EVENING...EXPECT LARGELY VFR
CONDITIONS WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE CAROLINAS.
THERE COULD BE THE USUAL LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING GROUND FOG
THAT COULD CAUSE TEMPORARY REDUCTIONS IN VSBYS.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 720 AM THURS...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS WITH SEAS 1 TO 3 FT. WEAK
COASTAL TROUGH PERSISTS ACROSS THE OUTER BANKS AND NEAR SHORE COASTAL
WATERS BASED ON SURFACE AND SATELLITE WINDS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. A
02Z ASCAT WINDS PASS ILLUSTRATED THE TROUGH WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS
AROUND 10-15 KNOTS AROUND 20 NMI OFF THE COAST. GOOD BOATING
CONDITIONS ON TAP FOR TODAY WITH SEAS 1 TO 3 FT AND WINDS SHIFTING
SOUTH AND INCREASING TO 10-15 KNOTS LATE. THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN LATER THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
PROGGED TO CROSS THE WATERS 09-15Z FRI MORNING. WINDS WILL
INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATE TONIGHT TO SCA LEVELS...WITH
GUSTS ABOVE 25 KNOTS EXPECTED FOR THE PAMLICO SOUND. SWAN BUILT
SEAS TOO QUICKLY...WHICH IS TYPICAL...SO USED WAVEWATCH III FOR
THE BEGINNING OF THE EVENT THEN TRANSITIONED TO SWAN GIVEN ITS
PREFERRED WIND FIELD AND WAVEWATCH III WINDS SLIGHTLY TOO HIGH. SEAS
WILL BUILD 7 TO 10 FT FOR THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS WITH 5
TO 8 FT FOR THE NORTHERN LEG.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM THURSDAY...STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF
THE FRONTAL SYSTEM ON FRIDAY WILL BUILD SEAS TO AS HIGH AS 10 TO
11 FEET DURING THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MIDDLE MARINE
ZONES. EXPECT GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS AT TIMES ON FRIDAY. WINDS VEER TO
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH ALTHOUGH SEAS REMAIN AROUND 6 FEET UNTIL THE EXPIRATION
OF THE SCA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND INTO MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST OVER THE CAROLINAS
WITH GENERALLY 2 TO 4 FOOT SEAS AND WINDS AT OR BELOW 15 KNOTS.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM FRIDAY TO 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
AMZ152-154-156-158.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO 4 AM EST SATURDAY
FOR AMZ150.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...DAG/TL
SHORT TERM...DAG
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...DAG/CTC
MARINE...DAG/CTC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
615 AM CST THU JAN 26 2012
.SHORT TERM...UPDATED
615 AM CST THU JAN 26 2012
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FETCH ACROSS SNOW COVER TO THE SOUTH HAS
MANIFESTED INTO AN ARE OF LOW STRATUS AND FOG. CALLS TO LAW
ENFORCEMENT ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST IA AND SOUTHWEST WI HAS
INDICATED THAT THE FOG WAS DENSE IN AREAS. WITH TEMPS BELOW
FREEZING...SOME ICING COULD RESULT...LENDING ANOTHER HAZARD FOR
MORNING TRAVELERS. HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO COVER THE LOW
VSBYS AND ICING THREAT UNTIL 10 AM. RUC13/NAM12 FAVOR SOME
IMPROVEMENT BY THEN AS WINDS BECOME A BIT MORE WEST AS A SFC FRONT
APPROACHES. TRENDS WILL OBVIOUSLY BE MONITORED AND ADJUSTED MADE TO
THE ADV...AS NEEDED.
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
335 AM CST THU JAN 26 2012
26.00Z GFS/ECMWF SHOWING COLDER CYCLONIC FLOW LINGERING ACROSS THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. LOOKS LIKE LIGHT SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A
COUPLE MID-LEVEL TROUGH ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA. LOOK FOR HIGHS
SUNDAY IN THE 15 TO 20 DEGREE RANGE. WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH THE
WAVE ON MONDAY EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HIGHS IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S.
MODELS THEN SHOW MORE OF A HIGH ZONAL FLOW TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY WHICH
BRINGS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION ON TUESDAY. ENOUGH WARM AIR LOOKS TO BE PRESENT
WITH THIS SYSTEM ON TUESDAY FOR A CHANCE OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX.
&&
.AVIATION...
615 AM CST THU JAN 26 2012
CLOUDS ARE THE AVIATION CONCERN TODAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE
SNOW PACK HAVE LED TO AN AREA OF LOW IFR/MVFR STRATUS AHEAD OF A
FRONT TO THE WEST...ALONG WITH REDUCED VSBYS OF 1/2SM OR LESS OVER
PARTS OF NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHWEST WI. KRST IS ON THE EDGE OF THE LOW
STRATUS...AND WITH WIND PROFILERS SHOWING SOME SWING TO THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW...THOUGHTS ARE THAT KRST WILL
AVOID THESE LOW CIGS. KLSE...HOWEVER...WILL NOT. RUC13 TRENDS WOULD
HOLD IFR/MVFR CIGS THERE THROUGH 16-18Z...AND HAVE TRENDED KLSE TAF
AS SUCH. DON/T EXPECT A DROP BELOW 1-2SM AT KLSE AT PRESENT...BUT
TRENDS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
NEXT...ANOTHER BATCH OF 2 KFT CLOUDS MAY SWING ACROSS BOTH KRST AND
KLSE FOR THE AFTERNOON. THESE ARE SOURCED FROM SOUTHERN
CANADA/NORTHERN PLAINS. FOG/STRATUS SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SFC OBS
DEPICT THIS...AS DOES THE LATEST RUC13/NAM12 RH FIELDS. THIS IS
INCLUDED IN THE TAFS. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR THIS EVENING.
FRIDAY...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WITH SNOW RETURNING. LOOK
FOR A PERIOD OF IFR/MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS OF POSSIBLY 1-2SM IN -SN.
EXPECT 1-2 INCHES OF ACCUM...FOCUSED ON FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
615 AM CST THU JAN 26 2012
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR WIZ053>055-
061.
MN...NONE.
IA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR IAZ009>011-
018-019-029-030.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION.....RIECK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
1258 PM EST THU JAN 26 2012
.AVIATION...
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT
8-12 HOURS AS LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE OHIO VALLEY LIFTS NE AND AN
UPPER LEVEL TROF DIGS EASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.
TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY ARE AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SO
EXPECTED P-TYPE THROUGH THIS PD IS RAIN. KSBN WILL REMAIN ON THE
EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD FOR MOST OF THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH
CIGS BOUNCING FROM IFR TO LIFR. COOLER AIR WILL SWEEP INTO THE
REGION TONIGHT...WITH P-TYPE TRANSITIONING TO SNOW. PRECIP MOVES
OUT SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AT KSBN AND TOWARDS DAYBREAK AT KFWA AS
THE TROF EXITS EAST OUT OF THE REGION. CIGS NOT EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE TO MVFR UNTIL EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINS ABUNDANT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
UPDATE.../ISSUED ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS
IN/
HAVE DECIDED TO EXTEND AND EXPAND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR A
FEW HOURS THROUGH MIDDAY AS SOME FREEZING AND/OR FROZEN PRECIP
CONTINUES DESPITE BORDERLINE TEMPERATURES AT MANY SITES. STILL
EXPECT THAT TEMPS WILL WARM ENOUGH IN THE AFTERNOON FOR A
TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN...AND RUC SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA BEAR THIS OUT.
SHORT TERM...
DIFFICULT FCST AGAIN WITH SFC TEMPS ACRS ERN FA LOCKED JUST BLO
FZG IN STRONGLY BACKED SFC FLOW. INCRSG PRES FALLS ACRS XTRM SRN
IN/NRN KY THIS AM AS NRN/SRN STREAM CONT TO PHASE...ALA ECMWF OF
YDAY. IN NEAR TERM FAVORING RUC AND RAPID REFRESH WITH APPARENT
GOOD HANDLE WRT PTYPE/PLACEMENT. WHITTLED AWAY AT ADVISORY WITH
ALL BUT MAUMEE VALLEY NOW ABOVE FZG. BACKED FLOW INTO DRAINAGE
BASIN STILL SUPPORTIVE OF 30-32F SFC TEMPS PER MESONET WITH
COLDEST RMNG IN HEART OF BASIN. HOWEVER WITH IMMEDIATE UPSTREAM
TW MAX OF AROUND 5C INVOF KMIE CONTS NWD ADVANCE...IN RESPONSE TO
INCRSG NERN EXTENSION/DEEPENING OF OH VLY FNTL WAVE...PER 6
MB/3HR COUPLET. CONT W/SHARP GRADIENT WRT POPS WITH HIGHEST IN
STRONG MIDLYR DEFORMATION ZONE AMID I290-295K ISENT LYR UPGLIDE
ACRS SRN/SERN FA...THOUGH A NOD TO HRRR WITH AT LEAST SPRINKLES
WORKING FARTHER NORTH WITH ONLY FAR NWRN CWA ASSUREDLY DRY WITH
NMRS MID MSVLY SHORTWAVES TAKING SHARP EWD PROGRESSION...OVERCOME
BY STRONG DOWNSTREAM CONFLUENCY. OUTSIDE OF NEAR TERM FAVOR NON
NCEP SOLUTIONS...FIRST WITH DEEPER AND MORE LEFT TRACK SFC LOW
INTO CNTL PA OVERNIGHT...FURTHER WWD EXTENSION OF COLD CONVEYOR
BELT AND HOLDING ONTO SLIGHTLY HIR POPS TONIGHT EAST WITH RASN MIX
TO SN. AGAIN HAVE SQUELCHED DIURNAL PEAKS WITH THICK CLOUDS/PRECIP
AND WARM SECTOR NWD ADVANCE FERVENTLY QUELLED. ALSO FAVOR LIES
TOWARD STRONGER NON-NCEP SIGNALS WRT FRIDAY NIGHT CLIPPER SPAWNED
BY ENERGY NOW INTO PAC NW. 70-80KT MIDLVL SHORTWAVE INTO SRN
GRTLKS TO PROVIDE AMPLE LIFT FOR QUICK/LIGHT SN EVENT AND HAVE
RAMPED POPS SIGNIFICANTLY IN DEFERENCE TO SOLIDARITY IN A
ECMWF/GEM/UKMET BLEND.
LONG TERM... / SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY /
A PIECE OF THE ALASKA POLAR VORTEX WILL BREAK OFF SEWD TO NEAR JAMES
BAY BY THIS WEEKEND...WITH A DIGGING UPPER JET CORE EMERGING ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THIS FEATURE ALLOWING FOR AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH TO
DIG INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. SEVERAL SMALLER SCALE WAVES WILL PIVOT
EWD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WITHIN THIS TROUGH. CVA AND LOW
LVL FGEN WITH THE FIRST SHORTWAVE ORIGINATING FROM THE NE PAC SHOULD
SUPPORT A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE FA FRIDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLY
LINGERING INTO SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. TEMPS ON
SATURDAY WILL TREND COOLER WHEN COMPARED WITH FRIDAY GIVEN
FROPA...STILL REMAINING AOA NORMAL. A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE AND
ATTENDANT POLAR FRONT ARE STILL PROGGED TO TRANSLATE THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH 850 HPA TEMPS FALLING TO BTW M13-M16
ON SUNDAY. THE THERMAL PROFILE...WITH 700 HPA DELTA T/S
25-30C...WILL SUPPORT A RATHER HEALTHY LAKE RESPONSE.
HOWEVER...GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW UNFAVORABLE TRAJECTORIES FOR
MODERATE LES GIVEN 280-290 DEG 92-8H FETCH. STILL...SOME ADDED
LIFT/MOISTURE FROM THE MID LVL IMPULSE AND RATHER SIG LATENT HEAT
FLUX OVER THE LAKE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
MAINLY ALONG/NORTH OF THE TOLL ROAD IN INDIANA/SW LOWER MI. AT THIS
POINT HAVE ACCUMS NEAR 1 INCH IN SW LOWER MI...LESS ELSEWHERE.
OTHERWISE...IT WILL ACTUALLY FEEL LIKE WINTER SUNDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY
FCST TO REACH THE MID/UPPER 20S (STILL ONLY 4-7 DEG BLO NORMAL).
A MODERATING TREND IS STILL IN THE CARDS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS WAA
REGIME SETS UP IN RESPONSE TO EXITING UPPER TROUGH AND BACKING FLOW
IN ADVANCE OF A PACIFIC SHORTWAVE...WHICH DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE DROP INTO THE PLAINS BY TUESDAY. ASSOCIATED HEIGHT FALLS
WILL SUPPORT LOW LVL THETA-E RISES INTO THE OH VALLEY/GREAT LAKES
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THIS OPTED TO RETAINED CHC POPS
FOR RAIN DURING THIS TIME AS 00Z GUIDANCE HAS REMAINED RELATIVELY
CONSISTENT WRT TIMING. FA SHOULD DRY OUT BY WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPS
REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL BEHIND CDFNT AS COLD AIR BECOMES BOTTLED UP
ACROSS NORTHERN CANADA IN PROGRESSIVE PACIFIC WAVE TRAIN PATTERN.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR INZ008-
009-016>018.
MI...NONE.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR OHZ001-
002-004-005-015-016.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...JC
UPDATE...NIELD
AVIATION...NG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1049 AM MST THU JAN 26 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
LATEST SATELLITE AND RUC UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOW WESTERLY FLOW
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND A CLOSED LOW OVER TEXAS. SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS AS WELL AS STRONG WINDS AND A BRIEF WARM UP WERE
OBSERVED AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONT MOVED THROUGH
THE HIGH PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SATURDAY)...
250 AM MST THU JAN 26 2012
CONCERNS FOR THIS PERIOD WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES/PHASE THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AND WINDS FRIDAY.
TODAY...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS DRY AIR AND THE RIGHT
EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET WILL BE OVER THE AREA BEHIND
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AS IT MOVES EAST. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE
THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON TURNING THE WINDS TO THE SOUTH BEHIND
IT.
TONIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
DURING THE NIGHT ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...EXTENDING SOUTHEAST TOWARD OBERLIN AND HILL CITY. MODELS
HAVE THE MOISTURE MOVING IN SOONER THAN AT THIS TIME YESTERDAY.
HOWEVER THERE IS A WARM DRY LAYER BETWEEN THE MOISTURE AND THE
SURFACE. WITH THE LIFT EXTENDING WELL INTO THE DEEP MOISTURE ABOVE
THIS LAYER...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION FROM
OCCURRING. CURRENTLY THINKING PRECIPITATION WILL START OFF AS RAIN
DURING THE EVENING DUE TO THE WARM NOSE IN PLACE. OVERNIGHT THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW AS COOLER AIR MOVES
IN.
FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE MORNING
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. AS THE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NEARS
THE AREA...700MB TO 300MB FRONTOGENESIS BEGINS TO MOVE OVER EAST
CENTRAL COLORADO AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS. WITH THE ENVIRONMENT
BECOMING MORE MOIST AS COOLER AIR MOVES IN...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION FROM OCCURRING OVER THOSE AREAS DURING THE
MORNING. AM THINKING THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW AS COOLER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE IN...WITH A CHANGE TO ALL SNOW BY
MID MORNING. THERE IS THE REMOTE CHANCE OF SOME FREEZING
RAIN/DRIZZLE OCCURRING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...BUT PER
CROSS SECTION ANALYSIS AND SREF PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES AM
THINKING THE COOLER AIR SHOULD MOVE THROUGH QUICK ENOUGH FOR ANY
FREEZING PRECIPITATION THREAT TO BE NEGLIGIBLE. DID INCLUDE A MIX
OF SPRINKLES AND FLURRIES OVER THE MCCOOK TO HILL CITY AREA DURING
THE EARLY MORNING AS THERE IS SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THOSE
AREAS BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. DURING THE AFTERNOON
DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AS IT
PROGRESSES OUT OF THE AREA BRINGING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO AN
END.
WINDS WILL BE A CONCERN DURING THE DAY AS A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND STRONG 850MB WINDS CAUSE WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH...WITH
GUSTS OF 50 MPH...TO DEVELOP DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...A SURFACE HIGH MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A SURFACE TROUGH SATURDAY.
850MB WINDS WILL BE STRONG OVER THE MCCOOK AND HILL CITY AREAS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT THAT AREA COULD SEE GUSTS OF 35
MPH. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE COOLEST FRIDAY...WITH
NEAR NORMAL VALES...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. LOWS
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR TONIGHT BUT COOL TO NORMAL VALUES FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM (SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY)...
250 AM MST THU JAN 26 2012
FORECAST AREA UNDER
NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WHEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH. AT THIS TIME AM EXPECTING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND SOME
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. IN FACT...MAY SEE BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS
WHICH IS CURRENTLY NOT DEPICTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AS THERE
ARE VARYING DEGREES OF INTENSITY WITH THIS TROUGH PASSAGE. OTHER
CONCERN TUESDAY AFTERNOON IS FIRE WEATHER. CURRENT RH FORECASTS OF
20-25 PERCENT EXIST ALONG AND WEST OF THE CO/KS BORDER. ADD THE
POSSIBILITY OF STRONGER THEN ADVERTISED WINDS AND FIRE WEATHER
HIGHLITES MAY BE NEEDED.
DISAGREEMENT IN THE UPPER PATTERN DEVELOPS BEHIND THIS TROUGH
PASSAGE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. FOR THE PRESENT TIME NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE WARMEST DAY MONDAY
WHERE MID TO UPPER 50S EXPECTED. BASED ON 850 TEMPS AROUND 10C CANT
RULE OUT A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE 60S. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
20S WHICH TOO IS ABOVE NORMAL.
007
&&
.AVIATION...
1022 AM MST THU JAN 26 2012
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP AT THE MCCOOK TERMINAL DURING
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. GIVEN THAT PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH
CIGS STILL ABOVE 7K FEET...EXPECT MOST OF THE PRECIP TO EVAPORATE
BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND. ANY PRECIP THAT DOES REACH THE GROUND
SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON OPERATIONS. MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT. BY 14Z...SUSTAINED WINDS WILL
REACH 25 KTS WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 35-40 KTS.
PMM
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
250 AM MST THU JAN 26 2012
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 20 TO 25 PERCENT WILL BE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE TRI-STATE AREA. WINDS DURING THE DAY
WILL BE AROUND 20 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE WHICH MAY
LEAD TO HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
ON TUESDAY RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 20 TO 25 PERCENT WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER EAST CENTRAL COLORADO. WIND GUSTS OF 25 MPH MAY LEAD
TO HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
JTL
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
419 PM EST THU JAN 26 2012
.SHORT TERM...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS A SHOTRWAVE OVER THE NRN
PLAINS POISED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. RADAR RETURNS SHOW A
NARROW BAND OF PCPN IN FORM OF LIGHT SNOW ASSOC WITH THIS FEATURE
OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AND NW WI. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE NOW OVER THE NRN
ROCKIES IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE UPR MS VALLEY AND WRN GREAT
LAKES LATE FRIDAY BRINGING ANOTHER CHC FOR LIGHT SNOW FRI AFTERNOON
AND FRI NIGHT.
800-700 MB FGEN AND MODERATE MID-LVL Q-VECT CONV ALONG FRONTAL
BOUNDARY HAS RESULTED IN BAND OF LIGHT SNOW OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR
AND NW WI. MODELS INDICATE FGEN FORCING AND Q-VECT CONV WILL WEAKEN
SOME ALONG THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT THEN STRENGTH A BIT OVER THE ERN
FCST LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THUS...KEPT ONLY SLIGHT CHC
POPS FOR SNOW OVER THE WRN HALF OF THE FCST AREA THIS EVENING AND
KEPT IN 30 PCT POPS OVER THE ERN COUNTIES. CLEARING LATER THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE TEENS OVER
THE WRN INTERIOR WHERE TEMPS ELSEWHERE SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER
TO MID 20S. 850 MB TEMPS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO DROP
TO -8 TO -9C WHICH SHOULD NOT BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ANY LES IN WNW FLOW
BEHIND FRONT.
RDGG MOVING OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP MUCH OF THE CWA DRY ON FRIDAY.
THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE FAR WRN COUNTIES FRI AFTERNOON WHERE
SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FM THE NRN ROCKIES WILL BRING ANOTHER CHC OF
SNOW LATE IN THE DAY.
.LONG TERM DISCUSSION /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
LARGE SHORTWAVE OVER JAMES BAY WILL KEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH SEVERAL WEAK AND FAST MOVING
SHORTWAVES DEVELOPING ALONG THE DESCENDING BRANCH OF THE TROUGH OVER
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE FIRST OF THESE SHORTWAVES WILL REACH THE
CWA SATURDAY MORNING...MERGING WITH A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TO OUR
SOUTH...WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND PRECIP
IMPACTING THE AREA BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT CONTINUING DURING THE DAY
ON SATURDAY. ALL MODELS ARE PERSISTENT ON THIS IDEA...HOWEVER THERE
SEEMS TO BE SOME DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE NAM AND OTHER MODELS AS
FAR AS THE PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW...AND RESULTING PRECIP.
BASED ON SREF DATA ALSO TRENDING AWAY FROM GENERAL NAM
SOLUTION...HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH CONSENSUS OF OTHER MODELS WHICH
WILL KEEP SURFACE LOW AND MAIN QVECTOR CONV TO THE SOUTH...KEEPING
MAIN PRECIP ALONG THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...WITH SOME CHANCES
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REMAINING CWA.
AS SYSTEM PULLS OUT SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL TRANSITION TO A
WNW DIRECTION AND THEN EVENTUALLY TO A MORE W DIRECTION BY SATURDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE FINALLY VEERING BACK TO THE NW BY SUNDAY MORNING
AHEAD OF NEXT APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. FALLING H850 TEMPS TO AROUND
-14C BEHIND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AND AHEAD OF A DESCENDING
POLAR JET WILL INDUCE LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN WNW FAVORED REGIONS DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY...AND THEN INTENSIFY IN AREAS FAVORED BY A NW WIND
DIRECTION DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AS H850 TEMPS BOTTOM OUT TO AROUND
-18C. POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY ACCUMULATIONS IN AFFECTED AREAS IS
POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS PERIOD/SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING...AS INVERSION HEIGHTS RANGE BETWEEN 5K-10K FT WITH DEEP
MOISTURE AVAILABLE AT TIMES IN THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
STRONG RIDGE AMPLIFICATION OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WILL ALLOW LARGE
SHORTWAVE TO REMAIN STATIONARY ACROSS HUDSON BAY...WITH A RESULTING
TROUGHING PATTERN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS SHARP TROUGH
WILL ALLOW THE POLAR JET TO DIP DOWN AS FAR SOUTH AS KENTUCKY SUNDAY
NIGHT...WHICH WILL TRANSLATE TO THE RETURN OF MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. H850 TEMPS OF -18C OVER THE LAKE WILL
KEEP SOME LINGERING CHANCES OF LES IN AREAS FAVORED BY NW
WINDS...QUICKLY DIMINISHING AS WAA ADVECTION COMES IN TO PLAY AND
WINDS BACK TO A MORE SW DIRECTION. AT THIS POINT/SUNDAY NIGHT/ THE
POLAR JET WILL MERGE WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET AND MOVE
EASTWARD...WHICH WILL SLOWLY LIFT THE STATIONARY TROUGH TO THE
NORTHEAST AND RETURN MUCH OF THE US TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW BY MONDAY
NIGHT. WEAK SURFACE DISTURBANCE WILL FORM ALONG THE DESCENDING
BRANCH OF THIS SHORTWAVE...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SYNOPTIC SNOWFALL
MONDAY...BEFORE QUICKLY MOVING OFF TO THE EAST FOLLOWING THE GENERAL
UPR LEVEL FLOW. SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENTS ON TIMING AND STRENGTH OF
THIS SHORTWAVE...WITH GFS BEING MORE PROGRESSIVE AND ECMWF BEING
SLOWER YET STRONGER...SO HAVE GONE WITH A GENERAL CONSENSUS.
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA SOMETIME
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT NIGHT...WITH SAME DISAGREEMENT AND LOW
CONFIDENCE BETWEEN THE MODELS ON THE EXACT LOCATION AND STRENGTH.
ECMWF AND GEM ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE
SHORTWAVE...HAVING IT AMPLIFYING IT OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY
TUESDAY MORNING...GFS ON THE OTHER HAND KEEPS THE LOW FARTHER TO OUR
SOUTH...PASSING ACROSS LAKE MI BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. DESPITE
DISAGREEMENTS ON PLACEMENT...STRONG MOISTURE AVAILABILITY/PWAT
VALUES 200 PCT ABOVE NORMAL/ AND WAA WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP CHANCES
OF PRECIP IN BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY EAST HALF OF
THE CWA. THIS AMPLIFIED TROUGH WILL ONCE AGAIN BRING SOME COLDER
TEMPERATURES IN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TUESDAY NIGHT. UPPER
GREAT LAKES SHOULD THEN TRANSITION TO A RIDGING PATTERN WITH
RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
EXPECT MVFR CIGS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY WITH SOME IFR CIGS AT
KSAW INTO MID AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THIS EVENING AND
ASSOC MIXING AND DRIER AIR SHOULD ALLOW MVFR CIGS TO LIFT AND VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL BY LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
&&
.MARINE /FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE/...
EXPECT GUSTY SW WINDS TO 25 KTS INTO EARLY THIS EVENING AHEAD OF
APPROACHING TROUGH. AFTER THE TROUGH PASSES...W/WNW WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 30 KTS...MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR
THIS EVENING INTO FRI MORNING. THERE COULD BE A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS
TO 35 KTS BUT PREVAILING WIND SPD SHOULD STAY BLO GALES. A SERIES OF
TROUGHS WILL THEN PASS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY. EACH OF THESE
TROUGHS WILL BRING INCREASED WINDS...WITH A POSSIBLE PERIOD OF GALES
SAT AFTERNOON INTO SAT EVENING...MAINLY OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE
LAKE WHERE A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR
LSZ265>267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
104 PM EST THU JAN 26 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION OVER
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY AS RAIN.
HOWEVER...IN THE CATSKILLS AND MOHAWK VALLEY OF NEW YORK...LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS OF ICE AND SNOW ARE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. ON SATURDAY...MIXED RAIN AND SNOW IS POSSIBLE AS A
WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSES. A COLD FRONT LATE SUNDAY WILL BRING
COLDER AIR AND A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES...LASTING
INTO MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATED AT 1200 PM... TRICKY FORECAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS
STEADIER PRECIPITATION IS OVERSPREADING THE AREA WITH MARGINAL
THERMAL PROFILES FOR SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN AND RAIN. CURRENT
CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHERN PA AND SOUTHERN NY INCLUDE REPORTS OF
JUST ABOUT ALL TYPES OF PCPN. LATEST RUC PROFILES INDICATE
LOCATIONS SUCH AS ELM AND BGM WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW OR
SLEET UNTIL ABOUT 3 PM. FREEZING RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...
MAINLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OVER SOUTHERN NY AS THE PROFILE WARMS
BUT TEMPERATURES HOLD NEAR 32 FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS. PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE MAINLY RAIN BY LATE AFTERNOON FOR ALL AREAS ALONG AND
WEST OF I-81. MEANWHILE... EXPECT MAINLY RAIN IN THE WILKES-BARRE
/ SCRANTON AREA THROUGH PIKE COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON... EXCEPT FOR
MAYBE A LITTLE SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.
ALSO AM EXPECTING MAINLY RAIN IN THE LAKE PLAIN FROM PENN YAN TO
SYRACUSE... WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE
FREEZING.
BASED ON THIS HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP THE ADVISORY FOR AREAS EAST OF
I-81... WHERE AN INCH OF SNOW THIS AFTERNOON WILL PROBABLY BE
FOLLOWED BY A LIGHT COATING OF FREEZING RAIN TONIGHT. FOR THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF NY DON`T EXPECT ANYTHING WORTHY OF AN ADVISORY
THIS AFTERNOON... MAYBE A LIGHT COATING OF SNOW... WITH ANY
FREEZING RAIN CONFINED TO THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.
UPDATED AT 840 AM... ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR SPOTTY
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN... SLEET AND VERY LIGHT SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF
NE PA THIS MORNING. LIGHT MIXED PRECIP HAS BEEN REPORTED THIS
MORNING FROM DUJ AND FIG TO IPT WITH RADAR SHOWING THESE ECHOES
MOVING ENE TOWARD NORTHEAST PA. TEMPERATURES IN NE PA ARE STILL A
COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW FREEZING IN MOST AREAS. EXPECT JUST SPOTTY
LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION IN THAT AREA THIS MORNING WITH AMOUNTS
NOTHING MORE THAN ONE OR TWO HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH... BUT THAT
COULD STILL BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW SLICK SPOTS.
7 AM UPDATE...MAIN CONCERN IN THE NEAR TERM IS FOR PROSPECTS OF
WINTRY MIX/FREEZING RAIN IN THE CATSKILLS...WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY...AND SOUTHERN TUG HILL PLATEAU THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT.
UPPER WAVE THROUGH TOP-DOWN MOISTENING PRODUCED A BATCH OF LIGHT
SNOW...DESPITE LACK OF QPF IN MOST MODELS. WE WERE IN THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF 500MB JET...WHICH MAY HAVE PROVIDED JUST ENOUGH
LIFT/ENHANCEMENT TO PRODUCE THE SKIFF TO SEVERAL TENTHS OF AN INCH OF
SNOW OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...THIS WAVE IS ALREADY SCOOTING
OUT...ALLOWING THE ACTIVITY TO FALL APART QUICKLY DURING THE PAST
FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...IT WILL ONLY BE A BRIEF RESPITE AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM WHICH IS ALREADY INBOUND.
MODELS ARE IN QUITE GOOD AGREEMENT FOR TIMING AND THERMAL
PROFILES. SURFACE LOW TRACKS UP OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING...REACHING
DIRECTLY OVER THE CWA BY 12Z FRIDAY. WELL OUT AHEAD OF IT...BROAD
BAROCLINIC LIFT YIELDS A LARGE SWATH OF PRECIPITATION THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. QUICK EXIT OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM NEW
ENGLAND...AND STRENGTH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION...WILL LIMIT AMOUNT
OF COLD AIR DAMMING...BUT PROFILES SUPPORT A PERIOD OF INITIAL
WINTRY MIX/FREEZING RAIN IN THE USUAL MOST VULNERABLE LOCATIONS OF
SULLIVAN-DELAWARE-OTSEGO- ONEIDA COUNTIES...BEFORE TRANSITION TO
PLAIN RAIN OVERNIGHT. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THESE ZONES. IN NORTHEAST PA AND AREAS ADJACENT TO THE
CATSKILLS...WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY BECAUSE IF PRECIPITATION
RUNS IN MORE QUICKLY THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED...PROFILES WILL BE
VERY SENSITIVE TO POSSIBLE VERY BRIEF MIX THERE AS WELL.
AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...LOOKING AT A SOLID THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH NORTHWEST TO AN INCH OR SO SOUTHEAST...THROUGH
12Z FRIDAY...WITH AN ADDITIONAL ONE TO FOUR TENTHS BEYOND THEN.
LACK OF SIGNIFICANT SNOW COVER...WILL HELP TO PREVENT THIS AMOUNT
OF RAIN FROM BEING PROBLEMATIC...THOUGH SOME STREAM RISES CAN BE
EXPECTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
DESPITE THE SURFACE LOW QUICKLY SHIFTING TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
BY MIDDAY FRIDAY...MODELS HAVE TRENDED TO A SLOWER EXIT OF
PRECIPITATION...BECAUSE OF AXIS OF DEFORMATION HANGING BACK
AWAITING PASSAGE OF UPPER TROUGH. THIS MAY ALLOW WET SNOW TO MIX
IN ON BACK EDGE OF PRECIPITATION...BEFORE IT ENDS.
REGARDLESS...EXPECTING LITTLE IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION FOR MOST
AREAS...BUT PERHAPS NEAR AN INCH IN THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES.
NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND FRIDAY...NEAR STEADY OR SLOWLY
FALLING. AS PROFILE TILTS LESS STABLE...STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL BE REALIZED AT THE SURFACE AS GUSTS ARE ABLE TO MIX DOWN.
850MB WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 35-40 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON...WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW FREQUENT SURFACE GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH OR SO...LASTING
INTO THE EVENING.
DRY FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH DECREASING CLOUDS. HOWEVER...PRESSURE
GRADIENT/MIXING WILL PREVENT RADIATIONAL COOLING...AND THUS LOWS
WILL NOT FALL BEYOND THE 20S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NOT TO MUCH TO CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. AS THE PREVIOUS
FORECASTER MENTIONED...THE H5 TROF WE ARE WAITING FOR OVER THE
WEEKEND IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH THE LONG RANGE MODELS...WITH THE
BEST SHOT AT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SETTING UP SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
BEYOND THAT WE STILL LOOK TO WARM UP AGAIN NEXT WEEK.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN CHANGE OVER THE LAST 24H HAS BEEN FOR THE MODELS TO SLOW
DOWN THE ADVANCE OF THE GREAT LAKES SHORT WAVE, AND THE CARVING
OUT OF THE NORTHEASTERN TROF. HOWEVER THE GENERAL IDEA REMAINS THE
SAME.
LATE SUNDAY A LARGE TROF WILL ROTATE OVER NY/PA, BRINGING COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO OUR REGION. HOWEVER THE
TROF IS PROGRESSIVE, AND WILL QUICKLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH
THE BEGINNING OF THE NEW WORK WEEK.
BY TUESDAY, ANOTHER WAVE DIVING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL
CARVE OUT THE PERSISTENT WEST-CENTRAL TROF. UPSTREAM RIDGING WILL
OCCUR, WITH HEIGHTS RISING THROUGH OUR FA. TEMPERATURES WILL
REBOUND INTO THE 40S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
1240 PM UPDATE...
MIXED PRECIP NOW OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NY AND NE PA WHICH WILL
PUSH ENE INTO SYR AND RME BY 20Z. AVP SHOULD BE MAINLY RAIN AND
MVFR THIS AFTN. SOME SLEET POSSIBLE FIRST 2 HOURS. REST OF SITES
STARTING AS SNOW WITH SOME IFR VSBYS ESPECIALLY HERE AT BGM. CIGS
FALLING BACK TO MVFR. SYR AND RME WILL START AS SNOW AS CONDITIONS
WORSEN. PRECIP WILL CHANGE TO ALL RAIN BY 00Z WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
THE VSBYS TO STICK AT MVFR WHILE CIGS FALL INTO SOLID MVFR. RME
WILL BE SLOWER WITH SNOW AND SLEET UNTIL AROUND 6Z BEFORE CHANGING
TO RAIN. IFR MOST LIKELY AT RME THIS AFTN AND EVE.
LATE EVE AND OVERNIGHT ALL SITES WILL HAVE CIGS DROP TO IFR WITH
MVFR VSBYS IN A STEADY RAIN AND LIGHT FOG. THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO
FRIDAY. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED AROUND 16 TO 18Z BUT DID NOT
INCLUDE YET. THIS SHOULD IMPROVE CONDITIONS BACK TO MVFR AND VFR.
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 5 TO 8 KTS THIS AFTN CONTINUING INTO
FRIDAY. TONIGHT ELM AND AVP WIND SPEEDS COULD BECOME CALM.
.OUTLOOK...
FRI NGT TO SAT MORNING...VFR WITH POSSIBLE MVFR IN FLURRIES FRI
NGT.
SAT AFTN...MVFR POSSIBLE LATE IN RAIN/SNOW...ESPECIALLY IN NY.
SAT NGT...VFR AT AVP. MVFR IN NY WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW.
SUN MORN...VFR.
SUN AFTN TO SUN EVE...MVFR/IFR WITH A COLD FRONT AND SNOW.
SUN NGT TO MON...IFR/MVFR POSSIBLE IN LAKE SNOWS..ESPECIALLY NY
TERMINALS.
MON NGT TO TUE...MVFR. SNOW TO RAIN WITH WARM FRONT.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ009-037-
046-057-062.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN/MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP/MSE
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...DJP/HEDEN
AVIATION...TAC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
1216 PM EST THU JAN 26 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WITH LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES...WILL EXIT BY
DAWN. AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN SPREAD
PRECIPITATION OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY...MAINLY AS RAIN. HOWEVER...IN THE CATSKILLS AND MOHAWK
VALLEY OF NEW YORK...LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF ICE ARE
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ON SATURDAY...MIXED
RAIN AND SNOW IS POSSIBLE AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSES. A COLD
FRONT LATE SUNDAY WILL BRING COLDER AIR AND A CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS AND FLURRIES...LASTING INTO MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATED AT 1200 PM... TRICKY FORECAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS
STEADIER PRECIPITATION IS OVERSPREADING THE AREA WITH MARGINAL
THERMAL PROFILES FOR SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN AND RAIN. CURRENT
CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHERN PA AND SOUTHERN NY INCLUDE REPORTS OF
JUST ABOUT ALL TYPES OF PCPN. LATEST RUC PROFILES INDICATE
LOCATIONS SUCH AS ELM AND BGM WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW OR
SLEET UNTIL ABOUT 3 PM. FREEZING RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...
MAINLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OVER SOUTHERN NY AS THE PROFILE WARMS
BUT TEMPERATURES HOLD NEAR 32 FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS. PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE MAINLY RAIN BY LATE AFTERNOON FOR ALL AREAS ALONG AND
WEST OF I-81. MEANWHILE... EXPECT MAINLY RAIN IN THE WILKES-BARRE
/ SCRANTON AREA THROUGH PIKE COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON... EXCEPT FOR
MAYBE A LITTLE SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.
ALSO AM EXPECTING MAINLY RAIN IN THE LAKE PLAIN FROM PENN YAN TO
SYRACUSE... WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE
FREEZING.
BASED ON THIS HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP THE ADVISORY FOR AREAS EAST OF
I-81... WHERE AN INCH OF SNOW THIS AFTERNOON WILL PROBABLY BE
FOLLOWED BY A LIGHT COATING OF FREEZING RAIN TONIGHT. FOR THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF NY DON`T EXPECT ANYTHING WORTHY OF AN ADVISORY
THIS AFTERNOON... MAYBE A LIGHT COATING OF SNOW... WITH ANY
FREEZING RAIN CONFINED TO THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.
UPDATED AT 840 AM... ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR SPOTTY
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN... SLEET AND VERY LIGHT SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF
NE PA THIS MORNING. LIGHT MIXED PRECIP HAS BEEN REPORTED THIS
MORNING FROM DUJ AND FIG TO IPT WITH RADAR SHOWING THESE ECHOES
MOVING ENE TOWARD NORTHEAST PA. TEMPERATURES IN NE PA ARE STILL A
COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW FREEZING IN MOST AREAS. EXPECT JUST SPOTTY
LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION IN THAT AREA THIS MORNING WITH AMOUNTS
NOTHING MORE THAN ONE OR TWO HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH... BUT THAT
COULD STILL BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW SLICK SPOTS.
7 AM UPDATE...MAIN CONCERN IN THE NEAR TERM IS FOR PROSPECTS OF
WINTRY MIX/FREEZING RAIN IN THE CATSKILLS...WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY...AND SOUTHERN TUG HILL PLATEAU THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT.
UPPER WAVE THROUGH TOP-DOWN MOISTENING PRODUCED A BATCH OF LIGHT
SNOW...DESPITE LACK OF QPF IN MOST MODELS. WE WERE IN THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF 500MB JET...WHICH MAY HAVE PROVIDED JUST ENOUGH
LIFT/ENHANCEMENT TO PRODUCE THE SKIFF TO SEVERAL TENTHS OF AN INCH OF
SNOW OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...THIS WAVE IS ALREADY SCOOTING
OUT...ALLOWING THE ACTIVITY TO FALL APART QUICKLY DURING THE PAST
FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...IT WILL ONLY BE A BRIEF RESPITE AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM WHICH IS ALREADY INBOUND.
MODELS ARE IN QUITE GOOD AGREEMENT FOR TIMING AND THERMAL
PROFILES. SURFACE LOW TRACKS UP OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING...REACHING
DIRECTLY OVER THE CWA BY 12Z FRIDAY. WELL OUT AHEAD OF IT...BROAD
BAROCLINIC LIFT YIELDS A LARGE SWATH OF PRECIPITATION THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. QUICK EXIT OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM NEW
ENGLAND...AND STRENGTH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION...WILL LIMIT AMOUNT
OF COLD AIR DAMMING...BUT PROFILES SUPPORT A PERIOD OF INITIAL
WINTRY MIX/FREEZING RAIN IN THE USUAL MOST VULNERABLE LOCATIONS OF
SULLIVAN-DELAWARE-OTSEGO- ONEIDA COUNTIES...BEFORE TRANSITION TO
PLAIN RAIN OVERNIGHT. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THESE ZONES. IN NORTHEAST PA AND AREAS ADJACENT TO THE
CATSKILLS...WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY BECAUSE IF PRECIPITATION
RUNS IN MORE QUICKLY THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED...PROFILES WILL BE
VERY SENSITIVE TO POSSIBLE VERY BRIEF MIX THERE AS WELL.
AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...LOOKING AT A SOLID THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH NORTHWEST TO AN INCH OR SO SOUTHEAST...THROUGH
12Z FRIDAY...WITH AN ADDITIONAL ONE TO FOUR TENTHS BEYOND THEN.
LACK OF SIGNIFICANT SNOW COVER...WILL HELP TO PREVENT THIS AMOUNT
OF RAIN FROM BEING PROBLEMATIC...THOUGH SOME STREAM RISES CAN BE
EXPECTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
DESPITE THE SURFACE LOW QUICKLY SHIFTING TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
BY MIDDAY FRIDAY...MODELS HAVE TRENDED TO A SLOWER EXIT OF
PRECIPITATION...BECAUSE OF AXIS OF DEFORMATION HANGING BACK
AWAITING PASSAGE OF UPPER TROUGH. THIS MAY ALLOW WET SNOW TO MIX
IN ON BACK EDGE OF PRECIPITATION...BEFORE IT ENDS.
REGARDLESS...EXPECTING LITTLE IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION FOR MOST
AREAS...BUT PERHAPS NEAR AN INCH IN THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES.
NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND FRIDAY...NEAR STEADY OR SLOWLY
FALLING. AS PROFILE TILTS LESS STABLE...STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL BE REALIZED AT THE SURFACE AS GUSTS ARE ABLE TO MIX DOWN.
850MB WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 35-40 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON...WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW FREQUENT SURFACE GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH OR SO...LASTING
INTO THE EVENING.
DRY FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH DECREASING CLOUDS. HOWEVER...PRESSURE
GRADIENT/MIXING WILL PREVENT RADIATIONAL COOLING...AND THUS LOWS
WILL NOT FALL BEYOND THE 20S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NOT TO MUCH TO CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. AS THE PREVIOUS
FORECASTER MENTIONED...THE H5 TROF WE ARE WAITING FOR OVER THE
WEEKEND IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH THE LONG RANGE MODELS...WITH THE
BEST SHOT AT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SETTING UP SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
BEYOND THAT WE STILL LOOK TO WARM UP AGAIN NEXT WEEK.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN CHANGE OVER THE LAST 24H HAS BEEN FOR THE MODELS TO SLOW
DOWN THE ADVANCE OF THE GREAT LAKES SHORT WAVE, AND THE CARVING
OUT OF THE NORTHEASTERN TROF. HOWEVER THE GENERAL IDEA REMAINS THE
SAME.
LATE SUNDAY A LARGE TROF WILL ROTATE OVER NY/PA, BRINGING COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO OUR REGION. HOWEVER THE
TROF IS PROGRESSIVE, AND WILL QUICKLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH
THE BEGINNING OF THE NEW WORK WEEK.
BY TUESDAY, ANOTHER WAVE DIVING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL
CARVE OUT THE PERSISTENT WEST-CENTRAL TROF. UPSTREAM RIDGING WILL
OCCUR, WITH HEIGHTS RISING THROUGH OUR FA. TEMPERATURES WILL
REBOUND INTO THE 40S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
7 AM UPDATE...
THE BIGGEST AVIATION CONCERN THIS MORNING IS ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHERN TERMINALS AND ESPECIALLY AT KRME. IFR CIGS AT KRME ARE
MOST PROBLEMATIC AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT MID-
MORNING BEFORE LIFTING TO MVFR. AT KSYR...MVFR CIGS NOW WILL
LIKELY LIFT BY ABOUT 14Z BASED ON OBS. TO OUR WEST. ASIDE FROM
ANOTHER HOUR OR SO OF MVFR VSBYS AT KBGM IN MIST...GENERALLY VFR
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDDAY ELSEWHERE.
TIMING OF PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON STILL LOOKS ON TRACK WITH
AN ARRIVAL AT KAVP/KELM BETWEEN 17Z AND 19Z...20Z/21Z AT
KBGM/KITH...AND TOWARD 23Z FAR NORTH. MOSTLY RAIN EXPECTED BUT
WITH AN ISOTHERMAL COLUMN THE PRECIP MAY START OUT AS SNOW AT KRME
AND KBGM BRIEFLY. STILL THINKING THAT KRME HAS THE BEST SHOT AT SEEING
THE BIGGEST IMPACT OF ANY TERMINAL FOR MIXED PRECIP. EVEN HERE
THOUGH SURFACE TEMPS LOOK TO BE ABOVE FREEZING SO I REMOVED THE
MENTION OF FREEZING RAIN AND INSTEAD OPTED FOR A 2 HOUR TEMPO
GROUP OF RA/SN AND LOWERED VSBYS TO IFR TO REFLECT THE SNOW
CHANCE.
RAIN TONIGHT ALL TERMINALS WITH MVFR TO IFR AT THE ELEVATED SITES.
.OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT THRU FRI...MVFR/IFR IN RAIN.
SAT...MVFR POSSIBLE LATE IN RAIN/SNOW.
SUN/MON...IFR/MVFR POSSIBLE IN LAKE SNOWS..ESPECIALLY NY TERMINALS.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ009-037-
046-057-062.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN/MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP/MSE
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...DJP/HEDEN
AVIATION...HEDEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1020 AM CST THU JAN 26 2012
.SHORT TERM...TODAY
1013 AM CST THU JAN 26 2012
THE DENSE FOG HAS DISSIPATED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING.
DUE TO THIS...THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. SOME MID
CLOUDS HAVE MOVED INTO SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA AHEAD
OF THE ADVANCING SHORT WAVE TROUGH...AND THEN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
AND MODELS SUGGEST THAT SKIES WILL ONCE AGAIN CLEAR AS SUBSIDENCE
MOVES INTO THE REGION. THE CLOUD FORECAST ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN
IS A BIT MORE COMPLICATED DUE TO THE MORNING STRATUS AND MID
CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER THINKING THAT THERE SHOULD BE
A BIT OF SUNSHINE DURING THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THIS AREA.
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
335 AM CST THU JAN 26 2012
26.00Z GFS/ECMWF SHOWING COLDER CYCLONIC FLOW LINGERING ACROSS THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. LOOKS LIKE LIGHT SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A
COUPLE MID-LEVEL TROUGH ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA. LOOK FOR HIGHS
SUNDAY IN THE 15 TO 20 DEGREE RANGE. WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH THE
WAVE ON MONDAY EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HIGHS IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S.
MODELS THEN SHOW MORE OF A HIGH ZONAL FLOW TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY WHICH
BRINGS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION ON TUESDAY. ENOUGH WARM AIR LOOKS TO BE PRESENT
WITH THIS SYSTEM ON TUESDAY FOR A CHANCE OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX.
&&
.AVIATION...
615 AM CST THU JAN 26 2012
CLOUDS ARE THE AVIATION CONCERN TODAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE
SNOW PACK HAVE LED TO AN AREA OF LOW IFR/MVFR STRATUS AHEAD OF A
FRONT TO THE WEST...ALONG WITH REDUCED VSBYS OF 1/2SM OR LESS OVER
PARTS OF NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHWEST WI. KRST IS ON THE EDGE OF THE LOW
STRATUS...AND WITH WIND PROFILERS SHOWING SOME SWING TO THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW...THOUGHTS ARE THAT KRST WILL
AVOID THESE LOW CIGS. KLSE...HOWEVER...WILL NOT. RUC13 TRENDS WOULD
HOLD IFR/MVFR CIGS THERE THROUGH 16-18Z...AND HAVE TRENDED KLSE TAF
AS SUCH. DON/T EXPECT A DROP BELOW 1-2SM AT KLSE AT PRESENT...BUT
TRENDS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
NEXT...ANOTHER BATCH OF 2 KFT CLOUDS MAY SWING ACROSS BOTH KRST AND
KLSE FOR THE AFTERNOON. THESE ARE SOURCED FROM SOUTHERN
CANADA/NORTHERN PLAINS. FOG/STRATUS SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SFC OBS
DEPICT THIS...AS DOES THE LATEST RUC13/NAM12 RH FIELDS. THIS IS
INCLUDED IN THE TAFS. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR THIS EVENING.
FRIDAY...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WITH SNOW RETURNING. LOOK
FOR A PERIOD OF IFR/MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS OF POSSIBLY 1-2SM IN -SN.
EXPECT 1-2 INCHES OF ACCUM...FOCUSED ON FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
1013 AM CST THU JAN 26 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION.....RIECK