Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 01/24/12
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
1026 AM MST SUN JAN 22 2012
.UPDATE...TO REMOVE WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES FOR THE NORTHWEST
COLORADO PLATEAUS. SNOWFALL CONTINUES OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF THE COLORADO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WAS WORKING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ZONES THIS MORNING AS
THE UPPER TROUGH WAS SHIFTING EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. Q
CONVERGENT FILED WILL BE EAST OF THE DIVIDE BY SUNRISE SIGNALING AN
END TO DYNAMICAL SUPPORT...BUT MOIST COLD ADVECTION IN NW OROGRAPHIC
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SNOWFALL THIS MORNING IN THE COLORADO
MOUNTAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS. THE LATEST HRRR AND RUC MODELS ARE
EMPHASIZING MORNING SNOW OVER THE CENTRAL COLORADO MTNS ESPECIALLY
THE NW SAN JUANS. HEAVY WET SNOW FELL SATURDAY INTO THE EVENING BUT
QUICKLY DROPPING MOUNTAIN TEMPERATURES ARE PRODUCING HIGHER RATIO
FLUFFY SNOW THIS MORNING FOR RIGHT-SIDE-UP SNOW CONDITIONS. THE
VALLEYS HAVE STAYED SURPRISINGLY MILD AND ONLY FLIRTING WITH
FREEZING LIMITING SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
VALLEYS.
SUN COMES OUT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MOST LOCATIONS AS NW GRADIENT
WINDS RELAX SOMEWHAT. LIGHT SHOWERS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE NEVER FULLY ERODES UNDER WEAK RIDGING TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THE NEXT SPLITTING STORM COMES ONSHORE ON MONDAY WITH THE
BRUNT OF DYNAMICS DIGGING THROUGH SOUTHERN AZ MONDAY NIGHT.
SNOWFALL WILL INCREASE OVER NORTH FACING SLOPES...BUT ACCUMULATIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SPLITTING TROUGH HEADED ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WILL BE SENDING
ENERGY NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AS WE START OFF THIS
PERIOD. BEST MOISTURE AND FORCING APPEARS TO BE OVER THE SAN JUANS
WITH THIS STORM...BUT AMOUNTS LOOKING MORE AND MORE MEAGER WITH
EACH RUN. SHOULD SEE A FEW INCHES OF NEW SNOW...BUT MAY NOT EVEN
REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA. WILL JUST MAINTAIN THE HIGH CHANCE TO LOW
LIKELY POPS WE CURRENTLY HAVE RUNNING. THIS SYSTEM EXITS TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH FLAT DIRTY RIDGE LEFT IN ITS WAKE. THE FLAT RIDGING
WILL KEEP THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA DRY...WITH THE EXCEPTION
BEING THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WHERE OCCASIONAL WEAK WAVES PASS...
SQUEEZING OUT A FEW SNOW SHOWERS. NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. THAT LOOKS TO
CHANGE BY FRIDAY AS BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ADVERTISING ANOTHER
STRONG PACIFIC SYSTEM TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND
INTO WESTERN COLORADO AS HEIGHTS RISE ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS
COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIP...FAVORING THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. FOR NOW...WILL JUST RAMP UP POPS
SLIGHTLY. TEMPS REMAIN SEASONAL THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE DECREASING THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
REGION...HOWEVER ENOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL
LEAD TO BRIEF LOCAL MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...ALTHOUGH MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION WILL LINGER OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR ZONES 004-009-010-
012.
UT...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE.......CJC
SHORT TERM...JDC
LONG TERM....JDC
AVIATION.....MC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
943 AM MST SUN JAN 22 2012
.SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WAS WORKING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ZONES THIS MORNING AS
THE UPPER TROUGH WAS SHIFTING EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. Q
CONVERGENT FILED WILL BE EAST OF THE DIVIDE BY SUNRISE SIGNALING AN
END TO DYNAMICAL SUPPORT...BUT MOIST COLD ADVECTION IN NW OROGRAPHIC
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SNOWFALL THIS MORNING IN THE COLORADO
MOUNTAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS. THE LATEST HRRR AND RUC MODELS ARE
EMPHASIZING MORNING SNOW OVER THE CENTRAL COLORADO MTNS ESPECIALLY
THE NW SAN JUANS. HEAVY WET SNOW FELL SATURDAY INTO THE EVENING BUT
QUICKLY DROPPING MOUNTAIN TEMPERATURES ARE PRODUCING HIGHER RATIO
FLUFFY SNOW THIS MORNING FOR RIGHT-SIDE-UP SNOW CONDITIONS. THE
VALLEYS HAVE STAYED SURPRISINGLY MILD AND ONLY FLIRTING WITH
FREEZING LIMITING SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
VALLEYS.
SUN COMES OUT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MOST LOCATIONS AS NW GRADIENT
WINDS RELAX SOMEWHAT. LIGHT SHOWERS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE NEVER FULLY ERODES UNDER WEAK RIDGING TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THE NEXT SPLITTING STORM COMES ONSHORE ON MONDAY WITH THE
BRUNT OF DYNAMICS DIGGING THROUGH SOUTHERN AZ MONDAY NIGHT.
SNOWFALL WILL INCREASE OVER NORTH FACING SLOPES...BUT ACCUMULATIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SPLITTING TROUGH HEADED ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WILL BE SENDING
ENERGY NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AS WE START OFF THIS
PERIOD. BEST MOISTURE AND FORCING APPEARS TO BE OVER THE SAN JUANS
WITH THIS STORM...BUT AMOUNTS LOOKING MORE AND MORE MEAGER WITH
EACH RUN. SHOULD SEE A FEW INCHES OF NEW SNOW...BUT MAY NOT EVEN
REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA. WILL JUST MAINTAIN THE HIGH CHANCE TO LOW
LIKELY POPS WE CURRENTLY HAVE RUNNING. THIS SYSTEM EXITS TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH FLAT DIRTY RIDGE LEFT IN ITS WAKE. THE FLAT RIDGING
WILL KEEP THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA DRY...WITH THE EXCEPTION
BEING THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WHERE OCCASIONAL WEAK WAVES PASS...
SQUEEZING OUT A FEW SNOW SHOWERS. NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. THAT LOOKS TO
CHANGE BY FRIDAY AS BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ADVERTISING ANOTHER
STRONG PACIFIC SYSTEM TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND
INTO WESTERN COLORADO AS HEIGHTS RISE ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS
COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIP...FAVORING THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. FOR NOW...WILL JUST RAMP UP POPS
SLIGHTLY. TEMPS REMAIN SEASONAL THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE DECREASING THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
REGION...HOWEVER ENOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL
LEAD TO BRIEF LOCAL MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...ALTHOUGH MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION WILL LINGER OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR ZONES 002>005-
008>010-012-013.
UT...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM....CC
AVIATION.....MC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
601 AM MST SUN JAN 22 2012
.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO DROP THE SOUTHERN VALLEY HIGHLIGHTS AS SNOWFALL
CONTINUES TO DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. BACK EDGE OF
PRECIP GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST WITH ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS
EXPECTED ON THE BACK SIDE. REMAINDER OF CURRENT HIGHLIGHTS WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT...ALTHOUGH MOST WILL LIKELY COME DOWN AS
SCHEDULED BASED ON CURRENT SPEED OF THE SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION /FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO THROUGH
19Z THIS AFTERNOON WITH PERIODS OF IFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN SNOW
SHOWERS. MOUNTAINS AND HIGH PASSES WILL BE OBSCD. SLOW
CLEARING WILL OCCUR FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY AS THE STORM
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SNOW MOVES OUT OF THE REGION...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS RETURNING BY MID EVENING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION /ISSUED 410 AM MST SUN JAN 22 2012/...
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WAS WORKING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ZONES THIS MORNING AS
THE UPPER TROUGH WAS SHIFTING EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. Q
CONVERGENT FILED WILL BE EAST OF THE DIVIDE BY SUNRISE SIGNALING AN
END TO DYNAMICAL SUPPORT...BUT MOIST COLD ADVECTION IN NW OROGRAPHIC
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SNOWFALL THIS MORNING IN THE COLORADO
MOUNTAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS. THE LATEST HRRR AND RUC MODELS ARE
EMPHASIZING MORNING SNOW OVER THE CENTRAL COLORADO MTNS ESPECIALLY
THE NW SAN JUANS. HEAVY WET SNOW FELL SATURDAY INTO THE EVENING BUT
QUICKLY DROPPING MOUNTAIN TEMPERATURES ARE PRODUCING HIGHER RATIO
FLUFFY SNOW THIS MORNING FOR RIGHT-SIDE-UP SNOW CONDITIONS. THE
VALLEYS HAVE STAYED SURPRISINGLY MILD AND ONLY FLIRTING WITH
FREEZING LIMITING SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
VALLEYS.
SUN COMES OUT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MOST LOCATIONS AS NW GRADIENT
WINDS RELAX SOMEWHAT. LIGHT SHOWERS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE NEVER FULLY ERODES UNDER WEAK RIDGING TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THE NEXT SPLITTING STORM COMES ONSHORE ON MONDAY WITH THE
BRUNT OF DYNAMICS DIGGING THROUGH SOUTHERN AZ MONDAY NIGHT.
SNOWFALL WILL INCREASE OVER NORTH FACING SLOPES...BUT ACCUMULATIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SPLITTING TROUGH HEADED ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WILL BE SENDING
ENERGY NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AS WE START OFF THIS
PERIOD. BEST MOISTURE AND FORCING APPEARS TO BE OVER THE SAN JUANS
WITH THIS STORM...BUT AMOUNTS LOOKING MORE AND MORE MEAGER WITH
EACH RUN. SHOULD SEE A FEW INCHES OF NEW SNOW...BUT MAY NOT EVEN
REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA. WILL JUST MAINTAIN THE HIGH CHANCE TO LOW
LIKELY POPS WE CURRENTLY HAVE RUNNING. THIS SYSTEM EXITS TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH FLAT DIRTY RIDGE LEFT IN ITS WAKE. THE FLAT RIDGING
WILL KEEP THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA DRY...WITH THE EXCEPTION
BEING THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WHERE OCCASIONAL WEAK WAVES PASS...
SQUEEZING OUT A FEW SNOW SHOWERS. NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. THAT LOOKS TO
CHANGE BY FRIDAY AS BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ADVERTISING ANOTHER
STRONG PACIFIC SYSTEM TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND
INTO WESTERN COLORADO AS HEIGHTS RISE ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS
COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIP...FAVORING THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. FOR NOW...WILL JUST RAMP UP POPS
SLIGHTLY. TEMPS REMAIN SEASONAL THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR ZONES 002>005-
008>010-012-013.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR ZONE 014.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR ZONES 018-
019.
UT...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE.......JDC
SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM....JDC
AVIATION.....TGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
410 AM MST SUN JAN 22 2012
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WAS WORKING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ZONES THIS MORNING AS
THE UPPER TROUGH WAS SHIFTING EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. Q
CONVERGENT FILED WILL BE EAST OF THE DIVIDE BY SUNRISE SIGNALING AN
END TO DYNAMICAL SUPPORT...BUT MOIST COLD ADVECTION IN NW OROGRAPHIC
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SNOWFALL THIS MORNING IN THE COLORADO
MOUNTAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS. THE LATEST HRRR AND RUC MODELS ARE
EMPHASIZING MORNING SNOW OVER THE CENTRAL COLORADO MTNS ESPECIALLY
THE NW SAN JUANS. HEAVY WET SNOW FELL SATURDAY INTO THE EVENING BUT
QUICKLY DROPPING MOUNTAIN TEMPERATURES ARE PRODUCING HIGHER RATIO
FLUFFY SNOW THIS MORNING FOR RIGHT-SIDE-UP SNOW CONDITIONS. THE
VALLEYS HAVE STAYED SURPRISINGLY MILD AND ONLY FLIRTING WITH
FREEZING LIMITING SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
VALLEYS.
SUN COMES OUT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MOST LOCATIONS AS NW GRADIENT
WINDS RELAX SOMEWHAT. LIGHT SHOWERS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE NEVER FULLY ERODES UNDER WEAK RIDGING TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THE NEXT SPLITTING STORM COMES ONSHORE ON MONDAY WITH THE
BRUNT OF DYNAMICS DIGGING THROUGH SOUTHERN AZ MONDAY NIGHT.
SNOWFALL WILL INCREASE OVER NORTH FACING SLOPES...BUT ACCUMULATIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SPLITTING TROUGH HEADED ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WILL BE SENDING
ENERGY NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AS WE START OFF THIS
PERIOD. BEST MOISTURE AND FORCING APPEARS TO BE OVER THE SAN JUANS
WITH THIS STORM...BUT AMOUNTS LOOKING MORE AND MORE MEAGER WITH
EACH RUN. SHOULD SEE A FEW INCHES OF NEW SNOW...BUT MAY NOT EVEN
REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA. WILL JUST MAINTAIN THE HIGH CHANCE TO LOW
LIKELY POPS WE CURRENTLY HAVE RUNNING. THIS SYSTEM EXITS TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH FLAT DIRTY RIDGE LEFT IN ITS WAKE. THE FLAT RIDGING
WILL KEEP THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA DRY...WITH THE EXCEPTION
BEING THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WHERE OCCASIONAL WEAK WAVES PASS...
SQUEEZING OUT A FEW SNOW SHOWERS. NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. THAT LOOKS TO
CHANGE BY FRIDAY AS BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ADVERTISING ANOTHER
STRONG PACIFIC SYSTEM TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND
INTO WESTERN COLORADO AS HEIGHTS RISE ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS
COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIP...FAVORING THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. FOR NOW...WILL JUST RAMP UP POPS
SLIGHTLY. TEMPS REMAIN SEASONAL THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO THROUGH
19Z THIS AFTERNOON WITH PERIODS OF IFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN SNOW
SHOWERS. MOUNTAINS AND HIGH PASSES WILL BE OBSCD. SLOW
CLEARING WILL OCCUR FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY AS THE STORM
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SNOW MOVES OUT OF THE REGION...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS RETURNING BY MID EVENING.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR ZONES
002>005-008>010-012-013.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR
ZONE 014.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR
ZONES 018-019.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
ZONES 020>023.
UT...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM....JDC
AVIATION.....TGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
407 AM MST SUN JAN 22 2012
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WAS WORKING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ZONES THIS MORNING AS
THE UPPER TROUGH WAS SHIFTING EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. Q
CONVERGENT FILED WILL BE EAST OF THE DIVIDE BY SUNRISE SIGNALING AN
END TO DYNAMICAL SUPPORT...BUT MOIST COLD ADVECTION IN NW OROGRAPHIC
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SNOWFALL THIS MORNING IN THE COLORADO
MOUNTAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS. THE LATEST HRRR AND RUC MODELS ARE
EMPHASIZING MORNING SNOW OVER THE CENTRAL COLORADO MTNS ESPECIALLY
THE NW SAN JUANS. HEAVY WET SNOW FELL SATURDAY INTO THE EVENING BUT
QUICKLY DROPPING MOUNTAIN TEMPERATURES ARE PRODUCING HIGHER RATIO
FLUFFY SNOW THIS MORNING FOR RIGHT-SIDE-UP SNOW CONDITIONS. THE
VALLEYS HAVE STAYED SURPRISINGLY MILD AND ONLY FLIRTING WITH
FREEZING LIMITING SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
VALLEYS.
SUN COMES OUT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MOST LOCATIONS AS NW GRADIENT
WINDS RELAX SOMEWHAT. LIGHT SHOWERS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE NEVER FULLY ERODES UNDER WEAK RIDGING TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THE NEXT SPLITTING STORM COMES ONSHORE ON MONDAY WITH THE
BRUNT OF DYNAMICS DIGGING THROUGH SOUTHERN AZ MONDAY NIGHT.
SNOWFALL WILL INCREASE OVER NORTH FACING SLOPES...BUT ACCUMULATIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SPLITTING TROUGH HEADED ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WILL BE SENDING
ENERGY NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AS WE START OFF THIS
PERIOD. BEST MOISTURE AND FORCING APPEARS TO BE OVER THE SAN JUANS
WITH THIS STORM...BUT AMOUNTS LOOKING MORE AND MORE MEAGER WITH
EACH RUN. SHOULD SEE A FEW INCHES OF NEW SNOW...BUT MAY NOT EVEN
REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA. WILL JUST MAINTAIN THE HIGH CHANCE TO LOW
LIKELY POPS WE CURRENTLY HAVE RUNNING. THIS SYSTEM EXITS TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH FLAT DIRTY RIDGE LEFT IN ITS WAKE. THE FLAT RIDGING
WILL KEEP THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA DRY...WITH THE EXCEPTION
BEING THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WHERE OCCASIONAL WEAK WAVES PASS...
SQUEEZING OUT A FEW SNOW SHOWERS. NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. THAT LOOKS TO
CHANGE BY FRIDAY AS BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ADVERTISING ANOTHER
STRONG PACIFIC SYSTEM TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND
INTO WESTERN COLORADO AS HEIGHTS RISE ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS
COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIP...FAVORING THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. FOR NOW...WILL JUST RAMP UP POPS
SLIGHTLY. TEMPS REMAIN SEASONAL THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO THROUGH
19Z THIS AFTERNOON WITH PERIODS OF IFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN SNOW
SHOWERS. MOUNTAINS AND HIGH PASSES WILL BE OBSCD. SLOW
CLEARING WILL OCCUR FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY AS THE STORM
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SNOW MOVES OUT OF THE REGION...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS RETURNING BY MID EVENING.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR ZONES
002>005-008>010-012-013.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR
ZONE 014.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR
ZONES 018-019.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
ZONES 020>023.
UT...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM....JDC
AVIATION.....TGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
1012 PM EST MON JAN 23 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A PERIOD OF RAIN WILL PRECEDE A COLD FRONT TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY DRY
AND MILD WEATHER TUESDAY. SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR
WEDNESDAY...THEN AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SOME RAIN TO
COASTAL SECTIONS THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY WITH SNOW OR A WINTRY
MIX FOR THE DISTANT INTERIOR. ANOTHER STORM IS EXPECTED TO PASS OUT
TO SEA ON SATURDAY...THEN A COLD FRONT WILL BRING COLDER WEATHER FOR
NEXT SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
10 PM UPDATE...
HAVE EXTENDED THE FREEZING RAIN ADV FOR NH UNTIL 11PM AS
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL HOVERED AROUND 30-34F. THESE COLD TEMPS
COMBINED WITH PRECIP WILL KEEP ROADS SLICK. LOOKING AT LATEST
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO PUSHES ACROSS NY/PA.
BEGINNING TO SEE THE ENDING OF THE MAIN SWATH OF PRECIP ACROSS THE
NY/MA BORDER. HAVE UPDATED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR APPROX ENDING TIME.
WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO SWITCH TO THE SW AND WITH IT THE FOG SHOULD
LIGHTEN UP SLIGHTLY. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE DENSE FOG ADV OUT FOR
NOW UNTIL CONDITIONS BEGIN TO IMPROVE. LOOKING AT IR SATELLITE...THERE MAY
BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF ANOTHER BAND OF PRECIP DEVELOPING ACROSS
CENTRAL NY/PA AT THE EDGE OF THE SHORTWAVE. CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT
WILL DEVELOP INTO A LINE...BUT WILL WATCH CLOSELY AND MONITOR.
PREV DISCUSSION...
7 PM UPDATE...
LOW LEVEL COLD AIR REALLY HANGING TOUGH IN THE CT VALLEY AND
MERRIMACK VALLEY WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS. EXAMINATION OF SOME
OF THE HI-RES MODELS INCLUDING THE HRRR AND WRF SUGGEST IT MAY
TAKE UNTIL 02-03Z FOR THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR TO EVENTUALLY GET
MIXED OUT SO WE EXTENDED THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 02Z.
AREA OF RAIN ASSOCD WITH DEEP MOISTURE PLUME AND MODEST LOW LEVEL
JET MOVING QUICKLY EWD ACROSS SNE. LATEST MODEL DATA INDICATES THE
DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS WILL BE OVER SE NEW ENG BY 06Z AND OFFSHORE
09-12Z. SO WE HAVE SPED UP THE TIMING OF DECREASING POPS OVERNIGHT
FROM WEST TO EAST. RAINFALL TOTALS SHOULD GENERALLY BE LESS THAN
0.50".
OTHER CONCERN FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD IS FORMATION OF DENSE FOG
AS HIGHER DEWPOINTS ADVECT NORTHWARD OVER EXISTING SNOW PACK.
VSBYS ALREADY DOWN TO 1/4-1/2SM ALONG PORTIONS OF THE S COAST AND
THESE LOWER VSBYS SHOULD SPREAD INLAND. WE MAY NEED TO CONSIDER A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY.
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT...WILL REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE
REACHING NEARLY 50 DEGREES ACROSS SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS AND
RHODE ISLAND BY 06Z BEFORE SLOWLY COOLING TOWARD MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. INCREASING
WESTERLY WINDS BRING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. LOOKING ACROSS TO
THE MIDWEST AND AT THE MODELS...THE AIR BEHIND THE FRONT IS NOT
SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER. THEREFORE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH INTO
THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50.
TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THERE WILL BE A TIGHT ENOUGH
PRESSURE GRADIENT TO KEEP WINDS UP OVERNIGHT AND PREVENT OPTIMUM
RADIATIONAL COOLING. DESPITE THIS...THE LACK OF WARM ADVECTION
/THAT WE WILL EXPERIENCE TONIGHT/...WILL MAKE FOR COOLER
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT...THOUGH STILL ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR LATE JANUARY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* DRY AND MILD TUE THEN A BIT COOLER WED
* RAIN NEAR THE COAST THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI WITH SNOW OR A WINTRY
MIX DISTANT INTERIOR
* A COASTAL STORM EXPECTED TO PASS OUT TO SEA SAT THEN COLDER SUN
OVERVIEW...
A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL DEVELOP THIS WEEK WITH PROGRESSIVE
NORTHERN STREAM ACROSS NORTHERN TIER US. ONE SHORTWAVE WILL AFFECT
THE REGION THU NIGHT AND FRI. MEANWHILE...SOUTHERN STREAM CLOSED
LOW INITIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL EJECT NE BUT IT APPEARS
THIS SYSTEM WILL GET KICKED OUT TO SEA SATURDAY AS IT ENCOUNTERS
CONFLUENT FLOW OVER THE NE. GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND CMC GLOBAL
SUPPORT A TRACK MUCH CLOSER TO THE COAST...BUT GIVEN CONFLUENT FLOW
FROM DOMINANT NORTHERN BRANCH WE PREFER MORE OFFSHORE SOLUTION
OFFERED BY GFS AND ECMWF. THIS STILL BEARS WATCHING AS A NORTHWARD
SHIFT WOULD LIKELY BRING PRECIP INTO NEW ENG. AFTER THIS SYSTEM
PASSES...DEEP MID LEVEL TROF WILL WILL MOVE EWD FROM THE GT LAKES
TOWARD THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD BRINGING COLDER WEATHER.
WEDNESDAY...
DRY NW FLOW AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BRINGING
PT-MOSUNNY SKIES. FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL BE TRACKING WELL TO
THE N LATE WED/WED EVENING BUT THIS SHOULD HAVE NO EFFECT ON SNE
WX. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN TUE BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL.
THURSDAY...
HIGH PRES WILL BE OVER NEW ENG TO START THE DAY THEN MOVE OFFSHORE
IN THE AFTERNOON AS NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE GT LAKES.
SUNSHINE WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDS. ANY PRECIP SHOULD HOLD
OFF TIL THU NIGHT.
THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...
FAIRLY STRONG MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING EWD INTO NEW ENG.
MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS A SECONDARY WAVE DEVELOPING ON THE FRONT AS
IT MOVES INTO SNE WHICH WILL BRING A PERIOD OF PRECIP TO THE REGION
THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. WHERE THIS SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPS WILL
BE IMPORTANT TO THE THERMAL PROFILE AND RESULTING PTYPE. THERE ARE
MODEL DIFFERENCES WHICH DECREASES OUR CONFIDENCE IN PTYPE ISSUES SO
FURTHER CHANGES TO THIS FORECAST ARE LIKELY UNTIL THERE IS BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH LOW TRACK. WE BASED THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST ON
A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF WHICH SUGGESTS A MOSTLY RAIN EVENT IN THE
COASTAL PLAIN...BUT ACCUMULATING SNOW AND/OR A WINTRY MIX WILL BE
POSSIBLE FURTHER IN THE INTERIOR. PTYPE WILL BE IMPORTANT AS MODELS
SUGGEST THERE WILL BE ENOUGH QPF FOR ADVSY LEVEL SNOWFALL WHERE
PRECIP REMAINS ALL SNOW. PRECIP SHOULD BE EXITING THE REGION FRI
MORNING FOLLOWED BY DRY CONDITIONS IN THE AFTERNOON.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
SOUTHERN STREAM COASTAL LOW EXPECTED TO PASS FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO
KEEP PRECIP SHIELD MOSTLY TO THE S OF SNE ON SATURDAY. WE THINK THE
NORTHERN STREAM CONFLUENT FLOW WILL KEEP THE STORM OUT TO SEA...BUT
THIS BEARS WATCHING AS THERE ARE SOME GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WHICH
TRACK THE STORM CLOSER TO THE COAST. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH BY SUNDAY. ECMWF IS MORE AMPLIFIED THAN GFS AND
INDICATES A SECOND LOW DEVELOPING ON THE FRONT OFFSHORE AND BRINGING
SOME SNOW TO SE NEW ENG. BUT ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN IS LESS AMPLIFIED
AND SIMILAR TO GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLES. TURNING COLDER SUN AND SUN
NIGHT WITH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH SHORTWAVE PASSAGE.
MONDAY...
LOOKS DRY AND COLD WITH HIGH PRES IN CONTROL.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT
MODERATE...30 PERCENT TO 60 PERCENT
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT
TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE OF WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS/VSBYS
AND AREAS OF LIFR CIGS/VSBYS DUE TO WARM MOIST AIR OVERRUNNING
SHALLOW COLDER AIR AND SNOW COVER. FOR SOME LOCATIONS...CONDITIONS
COULD DETERIORATE EVEN FURTHER AFTER MOST OF THE RA HAS MOVED
THROUGH. LOWERED VALUES SOME FROM VSBY STATISTICAL GUIDANCE. MOST
AREAS IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL ALSO EXPERIENCE LLWS THROUGH
ABOUT 06Z.
TUESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE OF CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR
LATER IN THE MORNING BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING. STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE SEEMS A LITTLE TOO PESSIMISTIC FOR TOO LONG IN THE MORNING.
TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY
EVENING AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN. BUFKIT PROFILES SUGGEST THERE MAY BE
A LAYER OF SC MOVING INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE AROUND 3 TO 4
THOUSAND FT.
KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR TONIGHT. EXPECT CIGS AND VSBYS TO
BECOME IFR WITH SE WIND...RAIN AND MOIST AIR OVERRUNNING THIS
EVENING. THERE IS A HIGH PROBABILITY OF A PERIOD OF LIFR LATER THIS
EVENING. AFTER MIDNIGHT SFC WIND SHIFTS TO SW...WHICH USUALLY
SIGNALS AN IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS AND VSBYS. HOWEVER...HIGH DEWPOINT
AIR FLOWING OVER SNOW COVER WILL LIKELY TEMPER IMPROVEMENT. WENT
ABOVE GUIDANCE DUE TO SW FLOW CLIMATOLOGY BUT STILL THINK IFR WILL
PREVAIL ALL NIGHT. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE MID TO LATE TUESDAY
MORNING BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING. THINK GUIDANCE MIGHT BE A
LITTLE TOO PESSIMISTIC. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR
CONDITIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
WED INTO THU...
HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR
THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...
MODERATE CONFIDENCE. A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE AS RAIN COAST
AND SNOW/MIXED PRECIP INTERIOR OVERSPREAD THE REGION. PRECIP ENDING
FRI MORNING FOLLOWED BY IMPROVING CONDITIONS FRI AFTERNOON.
SATURDAY...
MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR AS COASTAL STORM SHOULD REMAIN FAR
ENOUGH OFFSHORE. BUT A TRACK FURTHER N WOULD BRING POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIP AND LOWER CONDITIONS.
&&
.MARINE...
TONIGHT...SEAS INCREASE TO 5 TO 7 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING LATE
TONIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE OUTER WATERS.
TUESDAY...SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT. GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE...
REACHING SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA ON THE INNER BAYS AND SOUNDS. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE.
TUESDAY NIGHT...GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS CONTINUE...SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED AT LEAST FOR THE OUTER
WATERS.
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
WED...A PERIOD OF W/NW GUSTS TO 25 KT POSSIBLE DURING WED
DIMINISHING WED NIGHT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE WATERS.
THU...LIGHT NW WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY LATE IN THE DAY THEN
INCREASING SE WINDS POSSIBLE THU NIGHT WITH A CHANCE FOR SCA GUSTS.
FRI...WINDS BECOMING NW DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND A FEW
GUSTS TO SCA POSSIBLE.
SAT...EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING BUT SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA IF
COASTAL STORM REMAINS OFFSHORE.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MAZ017>024.
NH...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NHZ011-
012-015.
RI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR RIZ001>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
ANZ231>234.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-250-
254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...KJC/RLG/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/RLG/THOMPSON
MARINE...KJC/RLG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
718 PM EST MON JAN 23 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A PERIOD OF RAIN WILL PRECEDE A COLD FRONT TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY DRY
AND MILD WEATHER TUESDAY. SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR
WEDNESDAY...THEN AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SOME RAIN TO
COASTAL SECTIONS THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY WITH SNOW OR A WINTRY
MIX FOR THE DISTANT INTERIOR. ANOTHER STORM IS EXPECTED TO PASS OUT
TO SEA ON SATURDAY...THEN A COLD FRONT WILL BRING COLDER WEATHER FOR
NEXT SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
7 PM UPDATE...
LOW LEVEL COLD AIR REALLY HANGING TOUGH IN THE CT VALLEY AND
MERRIMACK VALLEY WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS. EXAMINATION OF SOME
OF THE HI-RES MODELS INCLUDING THE HRRR AND WRF SUGGEST IT MAY
TAKE UNTIL 02-03Z FOR THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR TO EVENTUALLY GET
MIXED OUT SO WE EXTENDED THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 02Z.
AREA OF RAIN ASSOCD WITH DEEP MOISTURE PLUME AND MODEST LOW LEVEL
JET MOVING QUICKLY EWD ACROSS SNE. LATEST MODEL DATA INDICATES THE
DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS WILL BE OVER SE NEW ENG BY 06Z AND OFFSHORE
09-12Z. SO WE HAVE SPED UP THE TIMING OF DECREASING POPS OVERNIGHT
FROM WEST TO EAST. RAINFALL TOTALS SHOULD GENERALLY BE LESS THAN
0.50".
OTHER CONCERN FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD IS FORMATION OF DENSE FOG
AS HIGHER DEWPOINTS ADVECT NORTHWARD OVER EXISTING SNOW PACK.
VSBYS ALREADY DOWN TO 1/4-1/2SM ALONG PORTIONS OF THE S COAST AND
THESE LOWER VSBYS SHOULD SPREAD INLAND. WE MAY NEED TO CONSIDER A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY.
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT...WILL REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE
REACHING NEARLY 50 DEGREES ACROSS SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS AND
RHODE ISLAND BY 06Z BEFORE SLOWLY COOLING TOWARD MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. INCREASING
WESTERLY WINDS BRING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. LOOKING ACROSS TO
THE MIDWEST AND AT THE MODELS...THE AIR BEHIND THE FRONT IS NOT
SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER. THEREFORE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH INTO
THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50.
TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THERE WILL BE A TIGHT ENOUGH
PRESSURE GRADIENT TO KEEP WINDS UP OVERNIGHT AND PREVENT OPTIMUM
RADIATIONAL COOLING. DESPITE THIS...THE LACK OF WARM ADVECTION
/THAT WE WILL EXPERIENCE TONIGHT/...WILL MAKE FOR COOLER
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT...THOUGH STILL ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR LATE JANUARY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* DRY AND MILD TUE THEN A BIT COOLER WED
* RAIN NEAR THE COAST THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI WITH SNOW OR A WINTRY
MIX DISTANT INTERIOR
* A COASTAL STORM EXPECTED TO PASS OUT TO SEA SAT THEN COLDER SUN
OVERVIEW...
A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL DEVELOP THIS WEEK WITH PROGRESSIVE
NORTHERN STREAM ACROSS NORTHERN TIER US. ONE SHORTWAVE WILL AFFECT
THE REGION THU NIGHT AND FRI. MEANWHILE...SOUTHERN STREAM CLOSED
LOW INITIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL EJECT NE BUT IT APPEARS
THIS SYSTEM WILL GET KICKED OUT TO SEA SATURDAY AS IT ENCOUNTERS
CONFLUENT FLOW OVER THE NE. GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND CMC GLOBAL
SUPPORT A TRACK MUCH CLOSER TO THE COAST...BUT GIVEN CONFLUENT FLOW
FROM DOMINANT NORTHERN BRANCH WE PREFER MORE OFFSHORE SOLUTION
OFFERED BY GFS AND ECMWF. THIS STILL BEARS WATCHING AS A NORTHWARD
SHIFT WOULD LIKELY BRING PRECIP INTO NEW ENG. AFTER THIS SYSTEM
PASSES...DEEP MID LEVEL TROF WILL WILL MOVE EWD FROM THE GT LAKES
TOWARD THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD BRINGING COLDER WEATHER.
WEDNESDAY...
DRY NW FLOW AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BRINGING
PT-MOSUNNY SKIES. FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL BE TRACKING WELL TO
THE N LATE WED/WED EVENING BUT THIS SHOULD HAVE NO EFFECT ON SNE
WX. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN TUE BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL.
THURSDAY...
HIGH PRES WILL BE OVER NEW ENG TO START THE DAY THEN MOVE OFFSHORE
IN THE AFTERNOON AS NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE GT LAKES.
SUNSHINE WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDS. ANY PRECIP SHOULD HOLD
OFF TIL THU NIGHT.
THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...
FAIRLY STRONG MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING EWD INTO NEW ENG.
MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS A SECONDARY WAVE DEVELOPING ON THE FRONT AS
IT MOVES INTO SNE WHICH WILL BRING A PERIOD OF PRECIP TO THE REGION
THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. WHERE THIS SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPS WILL
BE IMPORTANT TO THE THERMAL PROFILE AND RESULTING PTYPE. THERE ARE
MODEL DIFFERENCES WHICH DECREASES OUR CONFIDENCE IN PTYPE ISSUES SO
FURTHER CHANGES TO THIS FORECAST ARE LIKELY UNTIL THERE IS BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH LOW TRACK. WE BASED THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST ON
A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF WHICH SUGGESTS A MOSTLY RAIN EVENT IN THE
COASTAL PLAIN...BUT ACCUMULATING SNOW AND/OR A WINTRY MIX WILL BE
POSSIBLE FURTHER IN THE INTERIOR. PTYPE WILL BE IMPORTANT AS MODELS
SUGGEST THERE WILL BE ENOUGH QPF FOR ADVSY LEVEL SNOWFALL WHERE
PRECIP REMAINS ALL SNOW. PRECIP SHOULD BE EXITING THE REGION FRI
MORNING FOLLOWED BY DRY CONDITIONS IN THE AFTERNOON.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
SOUTHERN STREAM COASTAL LOW EXPECTED TO PASS FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO
KEEP PRECIP SHIELD MOSTLY TO THE S OF SNE ON SATURDAY. WE THINK THE
NORTHERN STREAM CONFLUENT FLOW WILL KEEP THE STORM OUT TO SEA...BUT
THIS BEARS WATCHING AS THERE ARE SOME GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WHICH
TRACK THE STORM CLOSER TO THE COAST. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH BY SUNDAY. ECMWF IS MORE AMPLIFIED THAN GFS AND
INDICATES A SECOND LOW DEVELOPING ON THE FRONT OFFSHORE AND BRINGING
SOME SNOW TO SE NEW ENG. BUT ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN IS LESS AMPLIFIED
AND SIMILAR TO GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLES. TURNING COLDER SUN AND SUN
NIGHT WITH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH SHORTWAVE PASSAGE.
MONDAY...
LOOKS DRY AND COLD WITH HIGH PRES IN CONTROL.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT
MODERATE...30 PERCENT TO 60 PERCENT
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT
TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE OF WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS/VSBYS
AND AREAS OF LIFR CIGS/VSBYS DUE TO WARM MOIST AIR OVERRUNNING
SHALLOW COLDER AIR AND SNOW COVER. FOR SOME LOCATIONS...CONDITIONS
COULD DETERIORATE EVEN FURTHER AFTER MOST OF THE RA HAS MOVED
THROUGH. LOWERED VALUES SOME FROM VSBY STATISTICAL GUIDANCE. MOST
AREAS IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL ALSO EXPERIENCE LLWS THROUGH
ABOUT 06Z.
TUESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE OF CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR
LATER IN THE MORNING BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING. STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE SEEMS A LITTLE TOO PESSIMISTIC FOR TOO LONG IN THE MORNING.
TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY
EVENING AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN. BUFKIT PROFILES SUGGEST THERE MAY BE
A LAYER OF SC MOVING INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE AROUND 3 TO 4
THOUSAND FT.
KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR TONIGHT. EXPECT CIGS AND VSBYS TO
BECOME IFR WITH SE WIND...RAIN AND MOIST AIR OVERRUNNING THIS
EVENING. THERE IS A HIGH PROBABILITY OF A PERIOD OF LIFR LATER THIS
EVENING. AFTER MIDNIGHT SFC WIND SHIFTS TO SW...WHICH USUALLY
SIGNALS AN IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS AND VSBYS. HOWEVER...HIGH DEWPOINT
AIR FLOWING OVER SNOW COVER WILL LIKELY TEMPER IMPROVEMENT. WENT
ABOVE GUIDANCE DUE TO SW FLOW CLIMATOLOGY BUT STILL THINK IFR WILL
PREVAIL ALL NIGHT. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE MID TO LATE TUESDAY
MORNING BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING. THINK GUIDANCE MIGHT BE A
LITTLE TOO PESSIMISTIC. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR
CONDITIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
WED INTO THU...
HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR
THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...
MODERATE CONFIDENCE. A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE AS RAIN COAST
AND SNOW/MIXED PRECIP INTERIOR OVERSPREAD THE REGION. PRECIP ENDING
FRI MORNING FOLLOWED BY IMPROVING CONDITIONS FRI AFTERNOON.
SATURDAY...
MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR AS COASTAL STORM SHOULD REMAIN FAR
ENOUGH OFFSHORE. BUT A TRACK FURTHER N WOULD BRING POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIP AND LOWER CONDITIONS.
&&
.MARINE...
TONIGHT...SEAS INCREASE TO 5 TO 7 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING LATE
TONIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE OUTER WATERS.
TUESDAY...SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT. GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE...
REACHING SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA ON THE INNER BAYS AND SOUNDS. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE.
TUESDAY NIGHT...GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS CONTINUE...SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED AT LEAST FOR THE OUTER
WATERS.
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
WED...A PERIOD OF W/NW GUSTS TO 25 KT POSSIBLE DURING WED
DIMINISHING WED NIGHT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE WATERS.
THU...LIGHT NW WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY LATE IN THE DAY THEN
INCREASING SE WINDS POSSIBLE THU NIGHT WITH A CHANCE FOR SCA GUSTS.
FRI...WINDS BECOMING NW DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND A FEW
GUSTS TO SCA POSSIBLE.
SAT...EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING BUT SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA IF
COASTAL STORM REMAINS OFFSHORE.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MAZ003-
009>011.
NH...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NHZ011-
012-015.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
ANZ231>234.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-250-
254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...KJC/RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/RLG/THOMPSON
MARINE...KJC/RLG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
708 PM EST MON JAN 23 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A PERIOD OF RAIN WILL PRECEDE A COLD FRONT TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY DRY
AND MILD WEATHER TUESDAY. SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR
WEDNESDAY...THEN AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SOME RAIN TO
COASTAL SECTIONS THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY WITH SNOW OR A WINTRY
MIX FOR THE DISTANT INTERIOR. ANOTHER STORM IS EXPECTED TO PASS OUT
TO SEA ON SATURDAY...THEN A COLD FRONT WILL BRING COLDER WEATHER FOR
NEXT SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
7 PM UPDATE...
LOW LEVEL COLD AIR REALLY HANGING TOUGH IN THE CT VALLEY AND
MERRIMACK VALLEY WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS. EXAMINATION OF SOME
OF THE HI-RES MODELS INCLUDING THE HRRR AND WRF SUGGEST IT MAY
TAKE UNTIL 02-03Z FOR THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR TO EVENTUALLY GET
MIXED OUT SO WE EXTENDED THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 02Z.
AREA OF RAIN ASSOCD WITH DEEP MOISTURE PLUME AND MODEST LOW LEVEL
JET MOVING QUICKLY EWD ACROSS SNE. LATEST MODEL DATA INDICATES THE
DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS WILL BE OVER SE NEW ENG BY 06Z AND OFFSHORE
09-12Z. SO WE HAVE SPED UP THE TIMING OF DECREASING POPS OVERNIGHT
FROM WEST TO EAST. RAINFALL TOTALS SHOULD GENERALLY BE LESS THAN
0.50".
OTHER CONCERN FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD IS FORMATION OF DENSE FOG
AS HIGHER DEWPOINTS ADVECT NORTHWARD OVER EXISTING SNOW PACK.
VSBYS ALREADY DOWN TO 1/4-1/2SM ALONG PORTIONS OF THE S COAST AND
THESE LOWER VSBYS SHOULD SPREAD INLAND. WE MAY NEED TO CONSIDER A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY.
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT...WILL REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE
REACHING NEARLY 50 DEGREES ACROSS SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS AND
RHODE ISLAND BY 06Z BEFORE SLOWLY COOLING TOWARD MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. INCREASING
WESTERLY WINDS BRING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. LOOKING ACROSS TO
THE MIDWEST AND AT THE MODELS...THE AIR BEHIND THE FRONT IS NOT
SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER. THEREFORE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH INTO
THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50.
TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THERE WILL BE A TIGHT ENOUGH
PRESSURE GRADIENT TO KEEP WINDS UP OVERNIGHT AND PREVENT OPTIMUM
RADIATIONAL COOLING. DESPITE THIS...THE LACK OF WARM ADVECTION
/THAT WE WILL EXPERIENCE TONIGHT/...WILL MAKE FOR COOLER
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT...THOUGH STILL ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR LATE JANUARY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* DRY AND MILD TUE THEN A BIT COOLER WED
* RAIN NEAR THE COAST THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI WITH SNOW OR A WINTRY
MIX DISTANT INTERIOR
* A COASTAL STORM EXPECTED TO PASS OUT TO SEA SAT THEN COLDER SUN
OVERVIEW...
A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL DEVELOP THIS WEEK WITH PROGRESSIVE
NORTHERN STREAM ACROSS NORTHERN TIER US. ONE SHORTWAVE WILL AFFECT
THE REGION THU NIGHT AND FRI. MEANWHILE...SOUTHERN STREAM CLOSED
LOW INITIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL EJECT NE BUT IT APPEARS
THIS SYSTEM WILL GET KICKED OUT TO SEA SATURDAY AS IT ENCOUNTERS
CONFLUENT FLOW OVER THE NE. GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND CMC GLOBAL
SUPPORT A TRACK MUCH CLOSER TO THE COAST...BUT GIVEN CONFLUENT FLOW
FROM DOMINANT NORTHERN BRANCH WE PREFER MORE OFFSHORE SOLUTION
OFFERED BY GFS AND ECMWF. THIS STILL BEARS WATCHING AS A NORTHWARD
SHIFT WOULD LIKELY BRING PRECIP INTO NEW ENG. AFTER THIS SYSTEM
PASSES...DEEP MID LEVEL TROF WILL WILL MOVE EWD FROM THE GT LAKES
TOWARD THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD BRINGING COLDER WEATHER.
WEDNESDAY...
DRY NW FLOW AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BRINGING
PT-MOSUNNY SKIES. FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL BE TRACKING WELL TO
THE N LATE WED/WED EVENING BUT THIS SHOULD HAVE NO EFFECT ON SNE
WX. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN TUE BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL.
THURSDAY...
HIGH PRES WILL BE OVER NEW ENG TO START THE DAY THEN MOVE OFFSHORE
IN THE AFTERNOON AS NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE GT LAKES.
SUNSHINE WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDS. ANY PRECIP SHOULD HOLD
OFF TIL THU NIGHT.
THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...
FAIRLY STRONG MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING EWD INTO NEW ENG.
MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS A SECONDARY WAVE DEVELOPING ON THE FRONT AS
IT MOVES INTO SNE WHICH WILL BRING A PERIOD OF PRECIP TO THE REGION
THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. WHERE THIS SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPS WILL
BE IMPORTANT TO THE THERMAL PROFILE AND RESULTING PTYPE. THERE ARE
MODEL DIFFERENCES WHICH DECREASES OUR CONFIDENCE IN PTYPE ISSUES SO
FURTHER CHANGES TO THIS FORECAST ARE LIKELY UNTIL THERE IS BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH LOW TRACK. WE BASED THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST ON
A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF WHICH SUGGESTS A MOSTLY RAIN EVENT IN THE
COASTAL PLAIN...BUT ACCUMULATING SNOW AND/OR A WINTRY MIX WILL BE
POSSIBLE FURTHER IN THE INTERIOR. PTYPE WILL BE IMPORTANT AS MODELS
SUGGEST THERE WILL BE ENOUGH QPF FOR ADVSY LEVEL SNOWFALL WHERE
PRECIP REMAINS ALL SNOW. PRECIP SHOULD BE EXITING THE REGION FRI
MORNING FOLLOWED BY DRY CONDITIONS IN THE AFTERNOON.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
SOUTHERN STREAM COASTAL LOW EXPECTED TO PASS FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO
KEEP PRECIP SHIELD MOSTLY TO THE S OF SNE ON SATURDAY. WE THINK THE
NORTHERN STREAM CONFLUENT FLOW WILL KEEP THE STORM OUT TO SEA...BUT
THIS BEARS WATCHING AS THERE ARE SOME GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WHICH
TRACK THE STORM CLOSER TO THE COAST. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH BY SUNDAY. ECMWF IS MORE AMPLIFIED THAN GFS AND
INDICATES A SECOND LOW DEVELOPING ON THE FRONT OFFSHORE AND BRINGING
SOME SNOW TO SE NEW ENG. BUT ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN IS LESS AMPLIFIED
AND SIMILAR TO GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLES. TURNING COLDER SUN AND SUN
NIGHT WITH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH SHORTWAVE PASSAGE.
MONDAY...
LOOKS DRY AND COLD WITH HIGH PRES IN CONTROL.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT
MODERATE...30 PERCENT TO 60 PERCENT
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT
THROUGH 00Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN EVENTS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING. WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE ALONG THE EAST COAST...CAPE
AND ISLANDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON
ENDING WITH MVFR CONDITIONS /POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS/ BY 00Z.
POCKETS OF -FZDZ ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES THROUGH 21Z.
TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND DENSE FOG LIKELY. LLWS POSSIBLE
THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD AT ALL LOCATIONS.
TUESDAY... MODERATE CONFIDENCE. RAPID IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.
TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.
KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CIGS LOWERING TO MVFR THEN TO IFR
GRADUALLY THRU THE DAY.
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
WED INTO THU...
HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR
THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...
MODERATE CONFIDENCE. A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE AS RAIN COAST
AND SNOW/MIXED PRECIP INTERIOR OVERSPREAD THE REGION. PRECIP ENDING
FRI MORNING FOLLOWED BY IMPROVING CONDITIONS FRI AFTERNOON.
SATURDAY...
MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR AS COASTAL STORM SHOULD REMAIN FAR
ENOUGH OFFSHORE. BUT A TRACK FURTHER N WOULD BRING POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIP AND LOWER CONDITIONS.
&&
.MARINE...
TONIGHT...SEAS INCREASE TO 5 TO 7 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING LATE
TONIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE OUTER WATERS.
TUESDAY...SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT. GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE...
REACHING SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA ON THE INNER BAYS AND SOUNDS. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE.
TUESDAY NIGHT...GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS CONTINUE...SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED AT LEAST FOR THE OUTER
WATERS.
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
WED...A PERIOD OF W/NW GUSTS TO 25 KT POSSIBLE DURING WED
DIMINISHING WED NIGHT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE WATERS.
THU...LIGHT NW WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY LATE IN THE DAY THEN
INCREASING SE WINDS POSSIBLE THU NIGHT WITH A CHANCE FOR SCA GUSTS.
FRI...WINDS BECOMING NW DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND A FEW
GUSTS TO SCA POSSIBLE.
SAT...EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING BUT SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA IF
COASTAL STORM REMAINS OFFSHORE.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MAZ003-
009>011.
NH...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NHZ011-
012-015.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
ANZ231>234.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-250-
254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/RLG
MARINE...KJC/RLG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TALLAHASSEE FL
940 AM EST Sun Jan 22 2012
.UPDATE (Rest of today through tonight)...
14Z water vapor and H4 RUC analysis shows an amplifying upper level
pattern across the CONUS. Main feature of note is a sharp and
energetic upper trough ejecting eastward from the inter-mountain
west across the central/southern Plains. This energy is forecast to
result in a potentially significant severe weather outbreak across
portions of the southern/central MS valley later today and this
evening. As a result of the significant height falls spreading
across the central portion of the country, we have seen downstream
ridging amplify over the SE Conus during the past 12-18 hours. The
influence of this strengthening ridge can clearly be seen in the 12Z
KTLH sounding profile, which shows a well defined subsidence
inversion above 700mb. Below this level the column is nearly
saturated. This setup of dry descending air overtop a moist boundary
layer is classic for fog formation. In addition, the high dewpoint
air moving northward over the relatively cooler shelf waters gave an
additional boost to the overall coverage of fog. Just now starting
to see visibility observations begin to improve, and this trend will
continue as diurnal mixing strengthens into the midday.
Closer to the surface, analysis indicates a fairly well-defined warm
frontal feature extending west to east in the proximity of the I-10
corridor. Low level upglide along the 295-305K surface over this
boundary is proving to be enough forcing to result in a scattering
of shallow showers across the Big Bend and Panhandle zones this
morning. Have update the PoPs for these southern zones the next few
hours to account for guidance/radar trends.
Heading into the afternoon, upper ridge axis will rapidly push east
of the region as a lead southern stream impulse ejects along the
northern Gulf Coast. Surface warm front will begin a slow retreat
northward as well reaching a position closer to KDHN and KABY by
early evening. As the front move north, so will the best associated
upglide. For this reason expect to see most of the shower activity
over our FL zones move north into AL/GA. Over these AL/GA zones
later today, the low level upglide will be aided by overspread large
scale ascent ahead of the approaching shortwave. With this in mind
have bumped up PoPs to around 40% this afternoon/early evening, and
added a chance of thunder. This scenario is consistent with
solutions from most of the hi-res CAM guidance.
Tonight,
Lead southern stream shortwave will pass our longitude during the
evening hours as the more impressive upper trough pivots across the
MS/TN valleys. Surface cold front will slowly be approaching from
the west, reaching western AL toward sunrise Monday. Momentum ahead
of this front will continue the warm frontal retreat well to our
north during the night. Continued the chance for showers/isolated
storms north of the FL border for a period this evening, however as
the surface front exits, and the upper trough passes by, should see
most activity/convection come to an end for a large portion of the
overnight. Have updated PoP/Wx/QPF grids to account for this
generally drier forecast after 03-05Z. Pre-frontal convection
associated with the cold front may begin to effect our far western
zones late tonight, however guidance consensus now shows that the
majority of this activity will remain just to our west until very
late tonight, and more likely the daylight hours of Monday. As of
now, the slight risk area for severe storms remains just to the NW
of our zones, however wind fields will be strengthening, allowing
the possibility for a stronger thunderstorm in the vicinity of
Coffee/Geneva/Walton counties late tonight.
&&
.MARINE...
A warm front north of the waters will retreat northward overnight.
A cold front will approach from the west later tonight into Monday,
but is expected to wash out before crossing the area. Without a
frontal passage, onshore flow will continue through the middle of
the week. Winds and seas will stay below headline criteria at least
through Wednesday. Winds and seas are expected to elevate late in
the week as a strong cold front approaches and passes through the
marine area. Areas of dense fog will be a concern the next few days
especially over the nearshore waters.
&&
.AVIATION (THROUGH 12Z MONDAY)...
The VIS/CIG restrictions will gradually improving to MVFR.
Conditions do not favor ceilings rising to VFR today...except
potentially late around KTLH and KECP. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms will be possible as well today. Best chances
will be around KTLH and KECP this morning, and then shifting
northward into AL/GA this afternoon/evening. A better chance for TS
will come late tonight into Monday morning at KDHN. Otherwise, IFR
conditions are forecast to re-develop during the overnight hours.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 78 54 76 56 73 / 30 10 20 20 30
Panama City 74 60 73 60 70 / 30 20 30 20 30
Dothan 78 61 74 56 68 / 40 40 40 30 40
Albany 74 57 72 57 68 / 40 50 30 30 40
Valdosta 78 56 76 55 74 / 30 40 20 10 20
Cross City 79 52 76 54 74 / 10 10 10 10 20
Apalachicola 71 59 71 59 69 / 20 10 20 20 20
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
GA...None.
FL...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ Monday for
Calhoun-Central Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal Dixie-Coastal
Franklin-Coastal Gulf-Coastal Jefferson-Coastal
Taylor-Coastal Wakulla-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland
Dixie-Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson-Inland
Taylor-Inland Wakulla-Inland Walton-Jackson-Lafayette-
Leon-Liberty-Madison-South Walton-Washington.
GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 1 PM EST Monday for Apalachee Bay-
Coastal waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL
out to 20 NM-Coastal waters from Suwannee River to Keaton
Beach FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Apalachicola to
Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee River to
Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM.
&&
$$
MROCZKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1152 AM CST SUN JAN 22 2012
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1015 AM CST SUN JAN 22 2012
AS WARM/MOIST AIR FLOWS NORTHWARD OVER THE COLD GROUND...WIDESPREAD
DRIZZLE AND FOG HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS MORNING.
12Z KILX UPPER AIR SOUNDING REVEALS A VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL
INVERSION AT AROUND 900MB...ESSENTIALLY TRAPPING MOISTURE NEAR THE
SURFACE. WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING THIS INVERSION REMAINING
IN PLACE...DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. 12Z
NAM AND HRRR BOTH SHOW MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS TODAY...WITH
SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT BETWEEN
00Z AND 03Z. THERE IS SOME HINT THAT INCREASING SYNOPTIC LIFT
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL TRIGGER A FEW LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS AS EARLY AS THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THE STRONGEST
LIFT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL EVENING. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO
INCLUDE DRIZZLE AND FOG THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND TO MENTION JUST
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER LATER IN THE DAY. HAVE ALSO ADDED
SEVERE MENTION TO AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70 FOR THIS
EVENING...AS LATEST DAY 1 OUTLOOK FROM SPC PLACES THIS AREA UNDER
A MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE.
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1152 AM CST SUN JAN 22 2012
LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT THE TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS...BEFORE CEILINGS GRADUALLY IMPROVE INTO THE IFR CATEGORY
LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP AROUND THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL...HOWEVER STRONGEST LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL EVENING. BASED
ON LATEST MODEL DATA...IT APPEARS A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE I-55 CORRIDOR AROUND 02Z...THEN WILL TRACK
EASTWARD INTO INDIANA SHORTLY AFTER 06Z. HAVE THEREFORE INCLUDED A
TEMPO GROUP FOR THUNDER AT KBMI...KSPI...AND KDEC BETWEEN 03Z AND
05Z AND BETWEEN 04Z AND 06Z AT KCMI. ONCE THE FRONT SWINGS
THROUGH...WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT...THEN TO THE
SOUTHWEST BY MONDAY MORNING. WITH DRIER AIR TRYING TO MOVE IN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST...HAVE IMPROVED CEILINGS INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AT
THE I-72 TERMINALS AFTER 11Z. FURTHER NORTHWEST...LOWER CLOUDS
WILL LINGER AT BOTH KPIA AND KBMI THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE 18Z
TAF PERIOD.
BARNES
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 330 AM CST SUN JAN 22 2012
BIGGEST FORECAST CONCERN IS SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THIS EVENING OVER SE IL. WILL USE A BLEND OF THE 00Z MODELS FOR
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE AND MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH STRONG
LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT TONIGHT. NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM TO AFFECT
SE IL WED NIGHT. OTHERWISE MOST OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK EXPECTED
TO HAVE QUIETER WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS SPLIT
UPPER LEVEL FLOW TAKES SHAPE AGAIN OVER THE COUNTRY DURING MID AND
LATE WEEK.
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
LOW STRATUS CLOUDS AROUND 500 FT OR LESS HAVE DRIFTED NORTHWARD IN
SE LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER IL ALONG WITH SOME FOG ESPECIALLY FROM I-70
NORTH WHERE VISIBILITIES 1-3 MILES. TEMPERATURES SLOWLY INCREASING
IN THE 20S EARLY THIS MORNING WITH COOLEST READINGS OVER THE 1-2
INCH SNOW COVER FROM I-74 NORTH. 1033 MB HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER
NEW ENGLAND WHILE STRONG 986 MB LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER THE EASTERN
CO/WY BORDER.
LATEST SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON QPF THIS AFTERNOON AS
MODELS INDICATE LIFT IN WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN WILL BE RATHER
DISORGANIZED. PLUS MOST OF THE SATURATED CONDITIONS ARE IN THE
LOWER LEVELS. SO ONLY EXPECTING ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES/DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP DURING TODAY. TEMPS INTO MID MORNING
STILL BELOW FREEZING WITH PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE NORTH
OF I-70. GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED COOLER ON DAYTIME HIGHS TODAY
REACHED AT 00Z/6 PM IN THE LOWER 40S FROM I-74 NORTH AND AROUND 50F
IN SE IL. TEMPS WILL LIKELY CLIMB AHEAD OF APPROACHING STRONG COLD
FRONT FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S.
CONTINUE HIGH CHANCES OF SHOWERS THIS EVENING WITH THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE EAST OF THE IL RIVER WITH STRONG SURFACE LOW MOVING NE
INTO SE IA BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND DEEPENING INTO SE WI BY DAWN
TUE. SHOWERS DIMINISH QUICKLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND LINGERING
NEAR THE INDIANA BORDER EARLY OVERNIGHT. THEN WRAP AROUND LIGHT
RAIN CHANGING TO LIGHT SNOW MOVES INTO THE IL RIVER VALLEY LATER
TONIGHT AND CONTINUE SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES OVER
NE COUNTIES MON MORNING MAINLY FROM I-74 NE.
SPC CONTINUES A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING
SE OF I-70 WITH YET ANOTHER COOL SEASON SEVERE WX THREAT IMPACTING
THIS PART OF IL LIKE LAST MONDAY NIGHT. A MODERATE RISK FURTHER
SOUTH OVER WEST TN...EASTERN AR AND NORTHERN MS. PER SPC DAY 1
OUTLOOK FOR THIS EVENING...A POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
ROCKIES WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE MS VALLEY THIS EVENING. THE TROUGH
WILL BECOME NEGATIVELY- TILTED AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CLOSES OFF
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...A 50 TO 70 KT LOW
LEVEL JET WILL EXPAND NORTHWARD ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY TODAY
WITH STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION TAKING PLACE IN THE LOWER MS
VALLEY. A POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OZARK
PLATEAU EARLY THIS EVENING AS NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS INITIATE IN
THE MID MS VALLEY. VERY STRONG LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES EVIDENT ON
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOULD RESULT IN RAPID LINEAR DEVELOPMENT THIS
EVENING FROM EASTERN/SE IL SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN KY. A WIND
DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD DEVELOP AS THE LINE SURGES QUICKLY EWD ACROSS
THE OH VALLEY DURING THE MID TO LATE EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE OH VALLEY DURING THE 03Z TO 06Z TIMEFRAME
SUGGEST THAT A COOL SURFACE INVERSION WILL EXIST IN SPITE OF
STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION. FOR THIS REASON...THE TORNADO THREAT IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN MARGINAL EXCEPT IN SOUTHERN KY WHERE SFC
DEWPOINTS COULD APPROACH 60F.
INCREASED THE WINDS MONDAY WITH VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
CENTRAL IL FROM DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE DEPARTING TO THE NE. TEMPS
WILL LIKELY SLIP DURING MONDAY MORNING WITH NOT MUCH RECOVERY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. CLOUDS DECREASE OVER SW AREAS MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND REST OF AREA MONDAY EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OF 1023 MB
MOVES INTO KY/TN BY DAWN TUE AND RIDGES OVER IL DURING TUE. THIS
TO BRING FAIR WX MONDAY NIGHT AND TUE AS WINDS DIMINISH AND CLOUDS
DECREASE.
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
00Z ECMWF MODEL HAS TRENDED FURTHER NORTH WITH QPF INTO CENTRAL
AND SE IL WED AFTERNOON THROUGH THU WHILE 00Z GFS SHOWS QPF OVER
JUST SE IL WED NIGHT WHICH CURRENT FORECAST AND ALLBLEND REFLECTS.
00Z GEM MODELS MAINLY KEEPS CENTRAL AND SE IL DRY DURING THIS TIME.
SPLIT UPPER LEVEL FLOW STILL PROJECTED DURING MID AND LATE WEEK
WITH STRONGER SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM/CUTOFF LOW TO STAY SOUTH OF
IL AND GETS ITS QPF CLOSEST TO SE IL WED NIGHT. DID NOT FOLLOW
ECMWF MODEL SINCE IT WAS A SHIFT FROM ITS PREVIOUS RUNS AND NOT IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH OTHER EXTENDED MODELS. WEAKER NORTHERN STREAM
TO KEEPS ITS LIGHT SNOW CHANCES NORTH OF CENTRAL IL OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. TEMPS OVERALL STILL APPEAR TO AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD.
HUETTL
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1015 AM CST SUN JAN 22 2012
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1015 AM CST SUN JAN 22 2012
AS WARM/MOIST AIR FLOWS NORTHWARD OVER THE COLD GROUND...WIDESPREAD
DRIZZLE AND FOG HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS MORNING.
12Z KILX UPPER AIR SOUNDING REVEALS A VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL
INVERSION AT AROUND 900MB...ESSENTIALLY TRAPPING MOISTURE NEAR THE
SURFACE. WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING THIS INVERSION REMAINING
IN PLACE...DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. 12Z
NAM AND HRRR BOTH SHOW MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS TODAY...WITH
SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT BETWEEN
00Z AND 03Z. THERE IS SOME HINT THAT INCREASING SYNOPTIC LIFT
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL TRIGGER A FEW LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS AS EARLY AS THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THE STRONGEST
LIFT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL EVENING. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO
INCLUDE DRIZZLE AND FOG THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND TO MENTION JUST
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER LATER IN THE DAY. HAVE ALSO ADDED
SEVERE MENTION TO AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70 FOR THIS
EVENING...AS LATEST DAY 1 OUTLOOK FROM SPC PLACES THIS AREA UNDER
A MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE.
BARNES
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 548 AM CST SUN JAN 22 2012...FOR THE 12Z TAFS
VLIFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT BMI THRU AT LEAST 15Z...AND
POSSIBLY UNTIL 17Z...WHEN THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND HELPS TO
INCREASE THE LIFTED CONDENSATION LEVEL. THE OTHER TERMINALS WILL
BE LIFR DUE TO CLOUDS AND/OR VIS THROUGH THE MORNING AS WELL... OR
UNTIL THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z. THE PASSAGE
OF THE WARM FRONT WILL NOT CHANGE WIND DIRECTIONS MUCH...AS
SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE THRU THE DAY AT 15 TO 20 GUSTING NEAR
30KT.
RAIN AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA. THE BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE FOR THE EASTERN TERMINALS OF
CMI/DEC...WITH SPI/BMI MORE MARGINAL AND PIA THE LOWEST CHANCES.
THE TERMINALS MAY ALL LIFT TO IFR FOR A SHORT TIME THIS
AFTERNOON...BEFORE CLOUD LEVELS DROP TO LIFR AGAIN AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. ANY STORMS THAT DO AFFECT DEC/CMI MAY CONTAIN VERY
STRONG WINDS NEAR 50KT. HOWEVER...CHANCES FOR THOSE WINDS ARE
BETTER SOUTH OF I-70 WITH THE HIGHER SEVERE STORM CHANCES.
WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS COLDER AIR
BEGINS TO MAKE A RETURN TO CENTRAL IL.
SHIMON
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 330 AM CST SUN JAN 22 2012
BIGGEST FORECAST CONCERN IS SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THIS EVENING OVER SE IL. WILL USE A BLEND OF THE 00Z MODELS FOR
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE AND MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH STRONG
LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT TONIGHT. NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM TO AFFECT
SE IL WED NIGHT. OTHERWISE MOST OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK EXPECTED
TO HAVE QUIETER WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS SPLIT
UPPER LEVEL FLOW TAKES SHAPE AGAIN OVER THE COUNTRY DURING MID AND
LATE WEEK.
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
LOW STRATUS CLOUDS AROUND 500 FT OR LESS HAVE DRIFTED NORTHWARD IN
SE LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER IL ALONG WITH SOME FOG ESPECIALLY FROM I-70
NORTH WHERE VISIBILITIES 1-3 MILES. TEMPERATURES SLOWLY INCREASING
IN THE 20S EARLY THIS MORNING WITH COOLEST READINGS OVER THE 1-2
INCH SNOW COVER FROM I-74 NORTH. 1033 MB HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER
NEW ENGLAND WHILE STRONG 986 MB LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER THE EASTERN
CO/WY BORDER.
LATEST SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON QPF THIS AFTERNOON AS
MODELS INDICATE LIFT IN WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN WILL BE RATHER
DISORGANIZED. PLUS MOST OF THE SATURATED CONDITIONS ARE IN THE
LOWER LEVELS. SO ONLY EXPECTING ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES/DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP DURING TODAY. TEMPS INTO MID MORNING
STILL BELOW FREEZING WITH PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE NORTH
OF I-70. GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED COOLER ON DAYTIME HIGHS TODAY
REACHED AT 00Z/6 PM IN THE LOWER 40S FROM I-74 NORTH AND AROUND 50F
IN SE IL. TEMPS WILL LIKELY CLIMB AHEAD OF APPROACHING STRONG COLD
FRONT FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S.
CONTINUE HIGH CHANCES OF SHOWERS THIS EVENING WITH THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE EAST OF THE IL RIVER WITH STRONG SURFACE LOW MOVING NE
INTO SE IA BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND DEEPENING INTO SE WI BY DAWN
TUE. SHOWERS DIMINISH QUICKLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND LINGERING
NEAR THE INDIANA BORDER EARLY OVERNIGHT. THEN WRAP AROUND LIGHT
RAIN CHANGING TO LIGHT SNOW MOVES INTO THE IL RIVER VALLEY LATER
TONIGHT AND CONTINUE SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES OVER
NE COUNTIES MON MORNING MAINLY FROM I-74 NE.
SPC CONTINUES A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING
SE OF I-70 WITH YET ANOTHER COOL SEASON SEVERE WX THREAT IMPACTING
THIS PART OF IL LIKE LAST MONDAY NIGHT. A MODERATE RISK FURTHER
SOUTH OVER WEST TN...EASTERN AR AND NORTHERN MS. PER SPC DAY 1
OUTLOOK FOR THIS EVENING...A POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
ROCKIES WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE MS VALLEY THIS EVENING. THE TROUGH
WILL BECOME NEGATIVELY- TILTED AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CLOSES OFF
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...A 50 TO 70 KT LOW
LEVEL JET WILL EXPAND NORTHWARD ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY TODAY
WITH STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION TAKING PLACE IN THE LOWER MS
VALLEY. A POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OZARK
PLATEAU EARLY THIS EVENING AS NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS INITIATE IN
THE MID MS VALLEY. VERY STRONG LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES EVIDENT ON
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOULD RESULT IN RAPID LINEAR DEVELOPMENT THIS
EVENING FROM EASTERN/SE IL SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN KY. A WIND
DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD DEVELOP AS THE LINE SURGES QUICKLY EWD ACROSS
THE OH VALLEY DURING THE MID TO LATE EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE OH VALLEY DURING THE 03Z TO 06Z TIMEFRAME
SUGGEST THAT A COOL SURFACE INVERSION WILL EXIST IN SPITE OF
STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION. FOR THIS REASON...THE TORNADO THREAT IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN MARGINAL EXCEPT IN SOUTHERN KY WHERE SFC
DEWPOINTS COULD APPROACH 60F.
INCREASED THE WINDS MONDAY WITH VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
CENTRAL IL FROM DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE DEPARTING TO THE NE. TEMPS
WILL LIKELY SLIP DURING MONDAY MORNING WITH NOT MUCH RECOVERY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. CLOUDS DECREASE OVER SW AREAS MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND REST OF AREA MONDAY EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OF 1023 MB
MOVES INTO KY/TN BY DAWN TUE AND RIDGES OVER IL DURING TUE. THIS
TO BRING FAIR WX MONDAY NIGHT AND TUE AS WINDS DIMINISH AND CLOUDS
DECREASE.
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
00Z ECMWF MODEL HAS TRENDED FURTHER NORTH WITH QPF INTO CENTRAL
AND SE IL WED AFTERNOON THROUGH THU WHILE 00Z GFS SHOWS QPF OVER
JUST SE IL WED NIGHT WHICH CURRENT FORECAST AND ALLBLEND REFLECTS.
00Z GEM MODELS MAINLY KEEPS CENTRAL AND SE IL DRY DURING THIS TIME.
SPLIT UPPER LEVEL FLOW STILL PROJECTED DURING MID AND LATE WEEK
WITH STRONGER SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM/CUTOFF LOW TO STAY SOUTH OF
IL AND GETS ITS QPF CLOSEST TO SE IL WED NIGHT. DID NOT FOLLOW
ECMWF MODEL SINCE IT WAS A SHIFT FROM ITS PREVIOUS RUNS AND NOT IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH OTHER EXTENDED MODELS. WEAKER NORTHERN STREAM
TO KEEPS ITS LIGHT SNOW CHANCES NORTH OF CENTRAL IL OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. TEMPS OVERALL STILL APPEAR TO AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD.
HUETTL
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1146 PM CST SAT JAN 21 2012
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 850 PM CST SAT JAN 21 2012
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
AWAY FROM THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW WINDS TO SHIFT MORE
INTO THE SOUTHEAST LATER TONIGHT AND INCREASE IN SPEED. THAT
COMBINED WITH CLOUDS MOVING BACK ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
SHOULD PUT A HALT TO THE EARLY EVENING TEMP DECLINE. RUC SOUNDINGS
SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE TOWARDS SUNDAY
MORNING WITH THE DEPTH OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING TO
BETWEEN 2500-3000 FEET...WITH DRY AIR LOCATED ABOVE. TEMPS..EXCPT
IN THE FAR NORTH WHERE THE CLOUDS HAVE NOT REACHED YET...SHOULD
BE STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE THE REST OF THE NIGHT. UPDATED EARLIER
TO ADJUST THE OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS ACRS THE NORTH DUE TO THE LIGHT
SNOW COVER...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
QUICK LOOK AT THE NEW NAM-WRF NOT SHOWING MUCH CHANGE REGARDING THE
STORM SYSTEM FOR TOMORROW. OUR BEST CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF AN EFFINGHAM TO PARIS
LINE. STILL SEEING TREMENDOUS WIND FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEPENING
UPPER AND SURFACE WAVES WITH 500 MB WINDS OF 95KTS OVR SOUTHERN IL
TOMORROW EVENING. LOOKS TO BE A CLASSIC COOL SEASON SEVERE WEATHER
EVENT WITH LOW CAPE/HIGH SHEAR VALUES. ONCE THE STORMS DEVELOP EARLY
TOMORROW EVENING...IT SHOULDN`T TAKE LONG FOR THEM TO PUSH NNE THRU
SOUTHEAST IL WITH CELL MOTION BEING NE AT 60 KTS. PRIMARY TIME FRAME
FOR ACTIVE WEATHER OVER SOUTHEAST IL WOULD BE FROM 6PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1135 PM CST SAT JAN 21 2012
LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION. IFR CIGS HAVE MOVED OVER
THE ENTIRE AREA AND ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND THRU SUNDAY EVENING.
STRONG STORM EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA LATER TOMORROW AFTN THRU
EARLY EVENING WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS
ALONG AND EAST OF I-55 WITH ISOLD STRONG CONVECTION MAY OCCUR
BETWN 23Z AND 04Z. MAIN THREAT WITH ANY STORMS WILL BE WITH
STRONG WINDS AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE 50-60 KT WINDS WILL
BE COMMON BTWN 1000-2000 FEET AGL. FOR NOW WILL INDICATE VCTS AS
COVERAGE OF STORMS LOOKS LIMITED IN OUR AREA WITH THE MAIN AREA
OF CONVECTION OCCURRING JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF DEC AND CMI.
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS BORDERLINE FOR SPI AND PIA AND THAT WOULD
BE AFTR 09Z. BUT IT APPEARS WE MAY SEE SOME GUSTS OCCURRING AT THE
SFC BY DAWN SO WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW. COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA BTWN 00Z-04Z WITH WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT OUT OF
THE SE AND THEN SHOULD VEER MORE INTO THE SOUTH AND THEN SOUTHWEST
AS THE FRONT SHIFTS OFF TO OUR EAST AFTR 06Z. WINDS WILL AVERAGE
FROM 15 TO 20 KTS BY MID TO LATE MORNING AND CONTINUE THRU THE AFTN
WITH GUSTS ARND 30 KTS AT TIMES.
SMITH
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 300 PM CST SAT JAN 21 2012
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
FORECAST FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE
STRONG UPPER WAVE NOW MOVING THROUGH NV. THE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AND
INDUCE RAPID CYCLOGENESIS IN THE AREA OF KS/NEB BY SUNDAY MORNING.
THE RESULTANT PRESSURE FALLS WILL SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY
WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW BRINGING STRONG MOISTURE
FLUX FROM A WIDE-OPEN GULF OF MEXICO. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO INCREASE
AGAIN LATER TONIGHT WELL AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WITH TEMPERATURES
RISING AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
MORNING UNTIL THE TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING...WHICH SHOULD BE
BY NOON. BY AFTERNOON...SOME SCATTERED ELEVATED SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE LARGELY UNFOCUSED WARM ADVECTION REGIME OVER IL.
BY 00Z MONDAY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE INCREASING ALONG THE PACIFIC
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WHICH WILL BE TAKING ON A
NEGATIVE TILT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY. THE NEGATIVE
TILT CONFIGURATION WILL CAUSE STRONG DIFFERENTIAL PVA WHICH WILL
ENHANCE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT...WHILE A STRONG/VEERING WIND PROFILE
PROMOTES LARGE VALUES OF BULK SHEAR AND LOW LEVEL HELICITY.
INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY HIGH BUT IT WILL BE ADEQUATE
FOR VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS WITHIN THE STRONGLY FORCED AIRMASS...WITH
SHEAR PROFILES FAVORING MESOCYCLONE/TORNADO FORMATION. TORNADOES
WILL BE MOST PREVALENT DURING THE INITIAL PHASES OF STORM FORMATION
TO OUR SOUTHWEST...BUT SUPERCELLS AND QLCS STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN THE EARLY TO MID EVENING AS FAR NORTHEAST AS THE INTERSTATE 70
CORRIDOR. WILL THEREFORE GO CATEGORICAL FOR POPS AND THUNDER FOR THE
EVENING HOURS. THE SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING...
WITH SOME SUGGESTING THE STORMS WILL BE INTO INDIANA BY 06Z...AND
OTHERS ON THE SLOWER SIDE. WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS
AFTER 06Z MONDAY IN THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES.
GUSTY WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING COLD ADVECTION INTO THE AREA
AS THE SURFACE/UPPER LOW DEEPENS AND BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED OVER
THE GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY. AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE
WILL BE LIKELY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER THE
NORTHERN AREAS ALONG INTERSTATE 74. TUESDAY SHOULD BE DRY AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE MIDWEST.
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
ACTIVE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. MODELS ARE STARTING TO COME TOGETHER WITH KEEPING
THE TWO STREAMS MOSTLY SEPARATED. NORTHERN STREAM WAVES ARE FORECAST
TO MOVE ACROSS THE US/CANADIAN BORDER INTO THE GREAT LAKES WITH
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTS MOVING THROUGH IL BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
THESE FRONTS SHOULD BE DRY AS THEY PASS THROUGH THE AREA AS THE
DYNAMICS REMAIN TO THE NORTH AND QUALITY MOISTURE STAYS BOTTLED UP
OVER THE GULF STATES AND APPALACHIANS. A WAVE ALONG THE THURSDAY
FRONT MAY BRING SOME RAIN TO SOUTHERN IL...SO WILL HAVE SOME CHANCE
AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.
MEANWHILE IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM...A CUTOFF LOW OVER MEXICO
JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE RIO GRANDE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
EAST-NORTHEAST TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
THERE REMAINS SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT EVEN
THE NORTHERN-MOST DGEX MODEL KEEPS MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION TO THE
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS KEEP THE
PRECIPITATION EVEN FURTHER SOUTH. SO THE BOTTOM LINE WILL BE A DRY
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE CHANCE POPS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
417 PM EST SUN JAN 22 2012
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND
MONDAY...BRINGING POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...STRONG
WINDS...AND HEAVY RAIN. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL FLOW IN BEHIND THE
FRONT. DRY WEATHER WILL THEN CONTINUE UNTIL MID TO LATE WEEK WHEN A
COUPLE OF SYSTEMS COULD BRING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
LOTS OF ISSUES TO DEAL WITH IN THE NEAR TERM. MOST POTENT WILL BE
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE CONVECTIVE WEATHER OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF
STRONG COLD FRONT.
ALTHOUGH WARM AIR IS SLOW IN COMING...LOOKING UPSTREAM SOME OF IT
SHOULD STILL GET HERE IN TIME FOR THE FORCING AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
TEMPERATURES MAY NOT BE QUITE AS WARM AS MODEL SHOWS...ESPECIALLY
NORTH WHERE THE SNOW COVER IS. BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE ALOFT
ANYWAY. ALTHOUGH EVEN THAT INSTABILITY WILL BE RELATIVELY
WEAK...THE VERY STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL CREATE STRONG SHEAR.
850MB WINDS WILL BE UP TO 6 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE AVERAGE. EVEN
925MB WINDS WILL BE OVER 50KT...WITH GFS SHOWING 60-70KT IN
SOUTHWEST INDIANA. THUS THE SHEAR PLUS THE STRONG LIFT SHOULD
OVERCOME THE LACK OF INSTABILITY FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA WHERE BEST SHEAR WILL BE.
THE STORMS WILL HAVE TO PUSH THROUGH A DECENT INVERSION TO GET THE
DAMAGING WINDS TO THE SURFACE. THIS WILL AGAIN WILL BE EASIEST
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER.
KEEP IN MIND THIS INVERSION HAS THE POTENTIAL TO LIMIT THE SEVERE
WEATHER IF IT IS STRONG ENOUGH. HOWEVER EVEN IF THE WINDS THAT
MAKE IT TO THE SURFACE ARE NON SEVERE...THE WET GROUND MAY ALLOW
TREES TO FALL DOWN EASIER.
THUS WILL MENTION SEVERE STORMS IN THE FORECAST. CURRENT TIMING
LOOKS TO BE 05-10Z. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE THE DAMAGING WINDS...BUT
WITH THE STRONG SHEAR CANNOT RULE OUT TORNADOES.
THE OTHER PROBLEM WILL BE FLOODING POTENTIAL. EVEN A HALF INCH OF
RAIN MAY CAUSE AREAL FLOODING...AND THIS LINE DEFINITELY HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO DROP A HALF INCH. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION FLOODING
POTENTIAL IN HWO.
TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL BE TRICKY...WITH THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE
WARM AIR NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. WILL USE RUC AS A PART OF THE FIRST
GUESS AS LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD OCCUR AT 00Z. READINGS WILL RISE
OVERNIGHT AND PERHAPS BEGIN TO FALL LATE TONIGHT.
WARM AIR MOVING OVER THE SNOW COVER ACROSS THE NORTH COULD LEAD TO
PATCHY DENSE FOG TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FOCUS IS ON WINDS ON MONDAY. MODELS ARE SIMILAR ENOUGH SO THAT A
BLEND CAN BE USED FOR THE MOST PART.
ACTUAL COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA EARLY ON MONDAY. STRONG
WINDS COULD STILL MIX DOWN WITH ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP ALONG THIS
FRONT. ALSO...WITH STRONG PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT...THERE
WILL BE GUSTY WINDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. BUFKIT SHOWS GUSTS NEAR 45
MPH POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA.
THUS WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY ON MONDAY FOR 12Z-22Z. FAR SOUTHERN
FORECAST AREA IS MORE BORDERLINE...BUT WOULD RATHER BE
PESSIMISTIC...ESPECIALLY WITH POTENTIAL GUSTS ALONG FRONT ITSELF.
THERE LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH FORCING ALONG THE FRONT AND EVEN BEHIND IT
FOR A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS MONDAY MORNING. DURING THE AFTERNOON
MOISTURE AND FORCING ARE LIMITED. BY AFTERNOON ALSO TEMPERATURES
WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME SNOW AS WELL. THUS WILL GO WITH
SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES MONDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS AT 12Z JUST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.
DRY WEATHER WILL THEN MOVE IN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN. A BLEND OF MOS LOOKS OK FOR TEMPERATURES.
A SOUTHERN SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY WITH RAIN TRYING TO
WORK INTO THE AREA. THE MOISTURE WILL HAVE TO DISPLACE DRIER AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. FOR NOW WILL JUST PUT
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY AS WELL AS FRIDAY NIGHT AS SEPARATE SYSTEMS IMPACT CENTRAL
INDIANA.
ALTHOUGH THE MODELS HAVE SOME TIMING ISSUES AS WELL AS ISSUES ABOUT
HOW FAR NORTH THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL MAKE IT WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY. BASIC SCENARIO HAS MOIST AIR RETURNING NORTHWARD FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO OVERTOP A SOUTHERN WARM FRONT AND BEING LIFTED BY
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. CENTRAL REGION
INITIALIZATION SEEMS TO HANDLE THINGS OK BRINGING CHANCE POPS TO ALL
OF CENTRAL INDIANA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY SIDING MORE WITH THE
00Z AND 12Z ECMWF. WENT WITH A MIX WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING AS TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 20S AND
LOWER 30S. WILL ONLY GO WITH RAIN ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S.
LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR A RAIN AND SNOW MIX FRIDAY NIGHT AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT DROPS DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST. OTHERWISE...HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP IT DRY. JET STREAM FLOW OFF THE PACIFIC
SUGGESTS WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY BUT BECOMING
MORE NEAR NORMAL STARTING SATURDAY AS INTERIOR CANADIAN WAVE DROPS
DOWN ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 222100Z TAF UPDATE/...
MAIN CHANGE TO THE TERMINALS AT THE UPDATE IS TO KEEP VLIFR
CONDITIONS IN LONGER BASED ON CURRENT OBS. DO NOT ANTICIPATE
IMPROVING CONDITIONS UNTIL THIS EVENING.
18Z DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
POOR FLYING CONDITIONS WITH IFR OR WORSE THROUGH THIS EVENING.
ALSO...LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR EXPECTED AS A 45 PLUS KNOT LOW LEVEL JET
POINTS INTO CENTRAL INDIANA AFTER 22Z UNDERNEATH A STRONG INVERSION
WITH SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS. THE INVERSION WILL
BREAK AS A STRONG TO SEVERE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO
REACH THE WESTERN TAF SITES AFTER 04Z AND EASTERN SITES AFTER 06Z.
LEFT A FOUR HOUR WINDOW OF VCTS AND CB WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE
AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY...BUT ADDED 3SM SHRA. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD
REACH THE WESTERN SITES AROUND 08Z AND EASTERN SITES AROUND 10Z.
THERE COULD ALSO BE A FEW SHOWERS PRIOR TO THE MAIN LINE...SO KEPT
VCSH GOING AFTER 22Z. FINALLY...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND WINDS SHOULD PICK UP TO AROUND 25 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS AFTER 13Z.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 5 PM EST MONDAY FOR INZ021-028>031-
035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...MK/RYAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
250 PM EST SUN JAN 22 2012
.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN
UPDATED BELOW
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND
MONDAY...BRINGING POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...STRONG
WINDS...AND HEAVY RAIN. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL FLOW IN BEHIND THE
FRONT. DRY WEATHER WILL THEN CONTINUE UNTIL MID TO LATE WEEK WHEN A
COUPLE OF SYSTEMS COULD BRING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
LOTS OF ISSUES TO DEAL WITH IN THE NEAR TERM. MOST POTENT WILL BE
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE CONVECTIVE WEATHER OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF
STRONG COLD FRONT.
ALTHOUGH WARM AIR IS SLOW IN COMING...LOOKING UPSTREAM SOME OF IT
SHOULD STILL GET HERE IN TIME FOR THE FORCING AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
TEMPERATURES MAY NOT BE QUITE AS WARM AS MODEL SHOWS...ESPECIALLY
NORTH WHERE THE SNOW COVER IS. BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE ALOFT
ANYWAY. ALTHOUGH EVEN THAT INSTABILITY WILL BE RELATIVELY
WEAK...THE VERY STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL CREATE STRONG SHEAR.
850MB WINDS WILL BE UP TO 6 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE AVERAGE. EVEN
925MB WINDS WILL BE OVER 50KT...WITH GFS SHOWING 60-70KT IN
SOUTHWEST INDIANA. THUS THE SHEAR PLUS THE STRONG LIFT SHOULD
OVERCOME THE LACK OF INSTABILITY FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA WHERE BEST SHEAR WILL BE.
THE STORMS WILL HAVE TO PUSH THROUGH A DECENT INVERSION TO GET THE
DAMAGING WINDS TO THE SURFACE. THIS WILL AGAIN WILL BE EASIEST
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER.
KEEP IN MIND THIS INVERSION HAS THE POTENTIAL TO LIMIT THE SEVERE
WEATHER IF IT IS STRONG ENOUGH. HOWEVER EVEN IF THE WINDS THAT
MAKE IT TO THE SURFACE ARE NON SEVERE...THE WET GROUND MAY ALLOW
TREES TO FALL DOWN EASIER.
THUS WILL MENTION SEVERE STORMS IN THE FORECAST. CURRENT TIMING
LOOKS TO BE 05-10Z. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE THE DAMAGING WINDS...BUT
WITH THE STRONG SHEAR CANNOT RULE OUT TORNADOES.
THE OTHER PROBLEM WILL BE FLOODING POTENTIAL. EVEN A HALF INCH OF
RAIN MAY CAUSE AREAL FLOODING...AND THIS LINE DEFINITELY HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO DROP A HALF INCH. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION FLOODING
POTENTIAL IN HWO.
TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL BE TRICKY...WITH THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE
WARM AIR NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. WILL USE RUC AS A PART OF THE FIRST
GUESS AS LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD OCCUR AT 00Z. READINGS WILL RISE
OVERNIGHT AND PERHAPS BEGIN TO FALL LATE TONIGHT.
WARM AIR MOVING OVER THE SNOW COVER ACROSS THE NORTH COULD LEAD TO
PATCHY DENSE FOG TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FOCUS IS ON WINDS ON MONDAY. MODELS ARE SIMILAR ENOUGH SO THAT A
BLEND CAN BE USED FOR THE MOST PART.
ACTUAL COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA EARLY ON MONDAY. STRONG
WINDS COULD STILL MIX DOWN WITH ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP ALONG THIS
FRONT. ALSO...WITH STRONG PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT...THERE
WILL BE GUSTY WINDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. BUFKIT SHOWS GUSTS NEAR 45
MPH POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA.
THUS WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY ON MONDAY FOR 12Z-22Z. FAR SOUTHERN
FORECAST AREA IS MORE BORDERLINE...BUT WOULD RATHER BE
PESSIMISTIC...ESPECIALLY WITH POTENTIAL GUSTS ALONG FRONT ITSELF.
THERE LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH FORCING ALONG THE FRONT AND EVEN BEHIND IT
FOR A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS MONDAY MORNING. DURING THE AFTERNOON
MOISTURE AND FORCING ARE LIMITED. BY AFTERNOON ALSO TEMPERATURES
WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME SNOW AS WELL. THUS WILL GO WITH
SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES MONDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS AT 12Z JUST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.
DRY WEATHER WILL THEN MOVE IN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN. A BLEND OF MOS LOOKS OK FOR TEMPERATURES.
A SOUTHERN SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY WITH RAIN TRYING TO
WORK INTO THE AREA. THE MOISTURE WILL HAVE TO DISPLACE DRIER AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. FOR NOW WILL JUST PUT
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY AS WELL AS FRIDAY NIGHT AS SEPARATE SYSTEMS IMPACT CENTRAL
INDIANA.
ALTHOUGH THE MODELS HAVE SOME TIMING ISSUES AS WELL AS ISSUES ABOUT
HOW FAR NORTH THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL MAKE IT WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY. BASIC SCENARIO HAS MOIST AIR RETURNING NORTHWARD FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO OVERTOP A SOUTHERN WARM FRONT AND BEING LIFTED BY
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. CENTRAL REGION
INITIALIZATION SEEMS TO HANDLE THINGS OK BRINGING CHANCE POPS TO ALL
OF CENTRAL INDIANA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY SIDING MORE WITH THE
00Z AND 12Z ECMWF. WENT WITH A MIX WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING AS TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 20S AND
LOWER 30S. WILL ONLY GO WITH RAIN ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S.
LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR A RAIN AND SNOW MIX FRIDAY NIGHT AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT DROPS DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST. OTHERWISE...HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP IT DRY. JET STREAM FLOW OFF THE PACIFIC
SUGGESTS WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY BUT BECOMING
MORE NEAR NORMAL STARTING SATURDAY AS INTERIOR CANADIAN WAVE DROPS
DOWN ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 221800Z TAFS/...
POOR FLYING CONDITIONS WITH IFR OR WORSE THROUGH THIS EVENING.
ALSO...LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR EXPECTED AS A 45 PLUS KNOT LOW LEVEL JET
POINTS INTO CENTRAL INDIANA AFTER 22Z UNDERNEATH A STRONG INVERSION
WITH SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS. THE INVERSION WILL
BREAK AS A STRONG TO SEVERE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO
REACH THE WESTERN TAF SITES AFTER 04Z AND EASTERN SITES AFTER 06Z.
LEFT A FOUR HOUR WINDOW OF VCTS AND CB WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE
AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY...BUT ADDED 3SM SHRA. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD
REACH THE WESTERN SITES AROUND 08Z AND EASTERN SITES AROUND 10Z.
THERE COULD ALSO BE A FEW SHOWERS PRIOR TO THE MAIN LINE...SO KEPT
VCSH GOING AFTER 22Z. FINALLY...CONDTIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND WINDS SHOULD PICK UP TO AROUND 25 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS AFTER 13Z.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 5 PM EST MONDAY FOR INZ021-028>031-
035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...MK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
1147 AM CST SUN JAN 22 2012
.AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
STRONG LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA
THIS EVENING. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BECOME
STRONG AND GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT. POST-FRONTAL
SHOWERS OF RAIN AND POSSIBLE SOME MIXED PRECIP/SNOW IS EXPECTED
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING...THOUGH CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN PRIMARILY VFR WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
KED
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 548 AM CST SUN JAN 22 2012/
AVIATION...12Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION HAS RESULTED IN WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS
EARLY THIS MORNING OVER EASTERN KS. AT KCNU THEY SHOULD GRADUALLY
LIFT TO MVFR BY LATE MORNING. THINKING IFR CIGS WILL FLIRT WITH
KICT-KSLN-KHUT THROUGH LATE MORNING...BUT BRUNT OF THESE CIGS
SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF I-135 CORRIDOR. STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-
LEVEL JET OF 45-55 KTS IS AFFECTING THE AREA THIS MORNING...BUT
LLWS IS MARGINAL AT ALL TAF SITES DUE TO STRONG GROUND-LEVEL
WINDS. OTHERWISE...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BLAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ARE
ANTICIPATED BEHIND THE FRONT...ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR TO LOW
VFR CIGS AND SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. CIGS/SHOWERS SHOULD EXIT TO
THE EAST BY MID TO LATE EVENING...WITH WINDS SLACKENING SOME.
KLEINSASSER
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 AM CST SUN JAN 22 2012/
DISCUSSION...
TODAY-TONIGHT:
INITIAL ISSUE IS EVOLUTION OF LOW CLOUDS...WITH RUC STRUGGLING TO
STAY IN THE BALLPARK AND OTHERS EVEN WORSE. GIVEN TRENDS...SHOULD
SEE SLOW IMPROVEMENT THROUGHOUT THE MORNING ON WESTERN EDGE...BUT
SOUTHEAST KS WILL BE VERY SLOW TO CLEAR. SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE IS
POSSIBLE IN SOUTHEAST KS...FORTUNATELY TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE
FREEZING. ALL MODELS SHOW SIGNIFICANT DRY SLOT WORKING ACROSS
SOUTHERN SECTIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF COLD AIR
ADVECTION. MEANWHILE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND LAPSE RATES
SHOULD SPREAD LOW END WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THE AREA WEST OF
A SLN-HARPER LINE FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. WITH ARRIVAL OF
850MB MOISTURE...SHOULD SEE SPRINKLES/LIGHT RAIN DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON IN CENTRAL KS...AND SPREAD INTO THE FLINT HILLS FOR A
FEW HOURS THIS EVENING. LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM
ENOUGH THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR PRECIPITATION TO REMAIN LIQUID.
DOWNGLIDE SHOULD QUICKLY SHUT DOWN PRECIPITATION IN THE EVENING.
WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BRISK FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. A TOUGH CALL
ON LOWS GIVEN THE OPPOSITE IMPACTS OF WINDS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION.
MON-MON NIGHT:
RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER ANTICIPATED WITH TEMPERATURES STILL
REMAINING AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.
TUE-TUE NIGHT:
PLAN TO STAY THE COURSE ON PRECIPITATION THIS PERIOD. MODELS
STILL STRUGGLING TO CONVERGE AS TO HOW FAR NORTH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL GO. HOWEVER BOTH GFS/ECMWF HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT THAT
EXTENSIVE HIGH CLOUDS WILL COVER THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON TUE.
USUALLY AM NOT AS CONFIDENT IN HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE MODEL
FORECASTS BEYOND DAYS 1-2...BUT THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE
DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW NE OF UPPER LOW. GIVEN THE COOL START...LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WINDS AND EXTENSIVE CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STRUGGLE.
WED-SUN:
00 UTC RUN OF THE ECMWF HAS BROKE CONTINUITY...WITH NEW RUN
RESEMBLING THE 20/12 UTC RUN. THIS IS A FASTER/DEEPER SOLN. GFS
MEANWHILE HAS BEEN STRUGGLING AS WELL...ALTHOUGH FORECAST AREA
REMAINS IN BETWEEN THE US-CANADIAN BORDER SURFACE LOW AND
INCONSISTENT WEAK UPPER LOW IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. NET RESULT AT
LEAST FOR NOW IS DRY AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. OTHERWISE WILL
NEED TO WAIT FOR MORE CONSISTENCY BEFORE MAKING ANY SUBSTANTIAL
CHANGES. -HOWERTON
AVIATION...06Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
STRATUS CLOUDS HAVE ARRIVED AHEAD OF SCHEDULE MAINLY EAST OF THE
KANSAS TURNPIKE LATE THIS EVENING. AREAS MOST LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED
BY MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY WILL BE KICT AND
KCNU. IFR/LIFR WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AT
KCNU WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE WITHIN AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL
WAA/MOISTURE ADVECTION. INCREASING LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR
SUBSIDENCE AND LOW LEVEL DRY AIR WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA IN THE
WAKE OF A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS WITH
A RETURN TO VFR ACROSS THE AREA. IN ADDITION...STRONG
WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 25-35 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.
MWM
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 56 25 51 27 / 30 20 0 0
HUTCHINSON 50 26 49 27 / 40 30 0 0
NEWTON 53 27 48 27 / 40 30 0 0
ELDORADO 56 27 50 27 / 30 30 0 0
WINFIELD-KWLD 60 27 56 29 / 30 20 0 0
RUSSELL 47 22 50 22 / 50 30 0 0
GREAT BEND 47 22 50 22 / 50 20 0 0
SALINA 50 26 51 23 / 50 50 0 0
MCPHERSON 50 26 50 25 / 50 40 0 0
COFFEYVILLE 62 31 53 29 / 10 20 0 0
CHANUTE 58 29 50 26 / 10 20 0 0
IOLA 58 30 49 27 / 10 30 0 0
PARSONS-KPPF 60 27 52 26 / 10 20 0 0
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR KSZ032-033-047>051-
067-082-091.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1018 AM MST SUN JAN 22 2012
.UPDATE...
803 AM MST SUN JAN 22 2012
UPDATED GRIDS AND ZONES TO ADJUST PRECIPITATION TYPES. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FOR THE FA INDICATE ALL RAIN FOR MOST OF THE MORNING AND
THEN A POSSIBLE MIX WITH SNOW AROUND NOON. SINCE THIS IS A FAST
MOVING SYSTEM EXITING THE FA BY EARLY AFTERNOON DO NOT EXPECT ANY
ACCUMULATION OTHER THAN SOME MINOR LOCALIZED AMOUNTS IN EXTREME
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA ZONES. OTHERWISE NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE
CURRENT FORECAST.
FS
&&
.DISCUSSION...
339 AM MST SUN JAN 22 2012
MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE TODAY. SATELLITE CONTINUING TO SHOW A
PROGRESSIVE AND ACTIVE WAVE TRAIN FROM THE PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. VERY STRONG SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST THIS
MORNING WILL CAUSE A RATHER ACTIVE WEATHER DAY ACROSS THE REGION.
NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA IS APPROACHING THE WEST COAST.
AT JET LEVEL THE NAM AND ECWMF WERE HANDLING THE STRONG SOUTHERN JET
APPROACHING OUR AREA AT THIS TIME. THIS WAS ESPECIALLY TRUE WITH
THE SEGMENT OVER THE OCEAN. AT MID LEVELS THE MODELS WERE HAVING A
LITTLE TROUBLE WITH THE INCOMING SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM IS VERY STRONG
NOW AND IS LOOKING LIKE IT IS STILL STRENGTHENING. IMPRESSIVE AND
WIDESPREAD HEIGHT FALLS OF A LEAST 100 METERS TO ALMOST 200 METER
IN THE 700 TO 500 MB LAYER. THE NAM...CANADIAN AND ECMWF WERE DOING
THE BEST WITH THE SYSTEM AND WERE THE DEEPEST/SLOWEST.
TODAY/TONIGHT...00Z MODEL DATA CAME IN AND WAS STRONGER...SLOWER...
AND COLDER WITH INCOMING SYSTEM. PV ANALYSIS SHOWS THE 1.5 VALUE
DOWN AS LOW AS NEAR 500 MB. SIGNIFICANT SUBSIDENCE IS OCCURRING ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM. LIGHTNING ALSO HAS OCCURRED WITH THE
SYSTEM. NO MATTER WHICH MODEL ONE CHOOSES...THEY ALL PRODUCE HIGH
WIND WARNING CRITERIA WINDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH THE GFS THE
STRONGEST. THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA WILL HAVE THE HIGH
SPEEDS AND GUSTS DUE TO VERY HIGH LAPSE RATES...STRONGEST DOWNWARD
MOTION...AND HIGHEST THREE HOUR PRESSURE RISES. ALREADY HAVE ISSUED
AN UPDATE TO HAVE A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FROM 13Z
TO 01Z. COMPARISONS BETWEEN DIFFERENT STORMS IS NEVER PERFECT.
HOWEVER...THIS SETUP IS SIMILAR TO HIGH WIND EVENT THAT AREA
EXPERIENCED ON DECEMBER 31.
WHAT MAKES THIS SITUATION EVEN MORE INTERESTING IS THE PRECIPITATION
FORECAST. WIDESPREAD LIGHT PRECIPITATION LOOKS LIKE IT WILL OCCUR
OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. MODELS ARE NOW COLDER AND SHOWING SNOW WILL
BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE. THIS
WILL CREATE BLOWING SNOW PROBLEMS. CHOSE TO HANDLE THIS SITUATION
WITH ENHANCED WARNING FOR THE SNOW IN THE NPW. DAY SHIFT WILL NEED
TO TAKE A CLOSE LOOK AT THIS. WILL WATCH THE TEMPERATURES FOR AS
LONG AS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND MAKE FINAL ADJUSTMENTS ON THE MAXES...
WHICH LOOK TO BE EARLY IN THE DAY. LATEST CANADIAN AND ESPECIALLY
THE HRRR CAPTURING REALITY WELL AND ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY. THIS ALSO
MAY CAUSE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE PRECIPITATION PHASE. LATEST OBSERVATIONS
AND MODEL DATA SUPPORT THE WEATHER AND POP FORECAST PUT IN BY THE
EVENING SHIFT. NEWER DATA DOES SUPPORT A LITTLE MORE QPF THAN EARLIER
WAS THINKING. SO DID RAISE QPF AND SNOW AMOUNTS A LITTLE.
NEXT QUESTION IS WHAT TO DO WITH THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH. NEWER MODEL
GUIDANCE DOES NOT DROP DEWPOINTS AS MUCH AS BEFORE. PLUS
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO NOT BE AS WARM DUE TO THE SLOWER PROGRESSION
OF THE SYSTEM. ALSO EXPECT SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO HAVE OCCURRED
AS WELL. AT PRESENT...THERE ONLY APPEARS TO BE AN EXTREMELY SMALL
WINDOW WHERE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS CAN BE MET. ALSO BY THE
TIME THE DEWPOINTS COME DOWN...TEMPERATURES HAVE ALSO COOLED FROM
EARLY DAY MAXES. SO WILL CANCEL THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH.
WINDS LOOK TO DECOUPLE RATHER QUICKLY AND WILL HAVE LOW DEWPOINTS.
LOWERED MINS A LITTLE BUT STILL MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED.
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...LIGHTER WINDS AND A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUN
BEHIND EXITING SYSTEM AND SURFACE RIDGE. THINKING IS THAT THERE WILL
BE MORE COLD AIR WITH THIS SYSTEM THAN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED PLUS
MAY BE SOME MINOR SNOW COVER ON THE GROUND. MODEL GUIDANCE NOT TOO
DIFFERENT BUT TRENDED TOWARD THE COOLER GUIDANCE. CLOUD COVER STARTS
INCREASING DURING THE NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM.
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...STRONG NORTH TO SOUTH JET EXISTS BEHIND
INCOMING SYSTEM. MAIN UPPER SYSTEM IS NOW FURTHER SOUTH THAN
YESTERDAY WITH MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON ITS LOCATION OVER NEW
MEXICO. HOWEVER...THE CANADIAN IS FURTHER SOUTH THAN THAT WITH THE
SREF IN BETWEEN THE CANADIAN AND THE REMAINING GUIDANCE. MORE OPEN
BUT STILL MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHERN PORTION OF THIS SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS AREA WITH SMALL SCALE 700 MB CIRCULATIONS IN FAVORABLE
LOCATIONS. MODELS BRING A GREAT DEAL OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE
AREA DURING THE DAY WITH THE LOWER LEVELS BEING SLOWER TO MOISTEN
UP. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE SHOWING RATHER STRONG MESOSCALE AND
SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING WITH FAVORABLE THETA-E LAPSE RATES IN PLACE.
MOST MODEL OUTPUT SHOWING VERY LIGHT QPF AND CONSIDERING ALL
PARAMETERS THAT MAKES SENSE. THINKING THE LIKELIHOOD OF MEASURABLE
IS LOW BUT THE PROBABILITY OF SOMETHING FALLING FROM THE SKY IS
RATHER HIGH. SO INSERTED SPRINKLES AND FLURRIES INTO THE FORECAST
FOR THE ENTIRE DAY AND INTO EARLY IN THE EVENING. DAY SHIFT WILL
HAVE TO TAKE ANOTHER CLOSE LOOK AT THIS DAY. CONSIDERING THE
THICKENING CLOUD COVER...UNFAVORABLE WIND DIRECTION...AND SOME COLD
AIR ADVECTION...TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT DO MUCH THROUGH THE DAY.
THE NAM WAS MUCH COLDER THAN THE REST BUT AM NOT READY TO GO THERE
YET. DID LOWER MAXES SOME TO START TRENDING IN THAT DIRECTION.
BULLER
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGE EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER
CWA AS TROUGH SHIFT EAST. RESULT WILL BE DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMING
TREND THROUGH THURSDAY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED BOTH WED AND
THU...WITH MID/UPPER 50S ON THURSDAY. SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS
NORTHERN PLAINS FRI/SAT WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH
OVER CWA. SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE ON
TIMING OF THESE FEATURES...WITH ECMWF CURRENTLY FASTER AND WETTER.
CONSIDERING POSITION OF SHORTWAVE AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ENSEMBLE
SUPPORT FOR ECMWF SOLUTION...IVE KEPT FORECAST DRY. I ALSO KEPT
TEMPS CLOSER TO CLIMATE NORMALS SHOWING A TEMPERED COOING TREND
FRI/SAT RATHER THAN THE COLDER ECMWF SOLUTION. IN ANY
CASE...CONFIDENCE BELOW NORMAL FOR DAYS 6/7.
DR
THANKS TO ALL THAT COLLABORATED.
&&
.AVIATION...
1018 AM MST SUN JAN 22 2012
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON...TAPERING OFF DURING THE EVENING. THERE IS ALSO THE
POTENTIAL FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION WITH THE TROUGH MOVING OVER THE
AREA. CURRENT OBS SHOW DRIZZLE AND LIGHT SNOW UPSTREAM OF
KGLD...AND DRIZZLE UPSTREAM OF KMCK. BASED ON THESE OBS AND THE
LATEST HRRR...HAVE INCLUDED VCSH AT KGLD WITH A TEMPO GROUP EARLY
IN THE AFTERNOON FOR LIGHT RAIN/SNOW...AND BROUGHT VCSH IN LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AT KMCK. MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AT KGLD...AND MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD MAKE IT TO KMCK EARLY
IN THE PERIOD.
CJS
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST /7 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.
NE...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST /7 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ079>081.
CO...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ090>092.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1117 AM CST SUN JAN 22 2012
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THIS TAF PERIOD. A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE OVER THE TAF SITES
AROUND NOON WITH MID LEVEL CIGS LOWERING TO AROUND 4KFT WITH SOME
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS BY 20-22Z WITH SOME AREAS OF MVFR CIGS. ALSO
EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE TO 30KT WITH GUSTS TO 45KTS
AROUND THE SAME TIME PERIOD AND LAST THROUGH 23-01Z. AFTER THAT
TIME FRAME AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST LOOK FOR
CLEARING SKIES AND NORTHWEST WINDS DECREASING TO 20KTS BY SUNSET
AND BECOMING WEST AROUND 10KT AFTER 09Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 709 AM CST SUN JAN 22 2012/
UPDATE...
LIGHT PRECIPITATION BEGINNING TO SPREAD INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS
BASED ON MOSAIC RADAR. BASED ON THE RUC THE HIGHER RETURNS
APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF 850-700MB FRONTOGENESIS
UNDER THE 500MB DEFORMATION ZONE. THIS BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS IS
CURRENTLY FORECAST TO MOVE TO NEAR SYRACUSE AND SCOTT CITY BY 15Z
AND THEN CROSS THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS BETWEEN 15Z AND
21Z. HAVE THEREFORE ADJUSTED TIMING OF INCREASING CLOUDS AND
DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION. LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 250 JET CONTINUES
TO HIGHLIGHT NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AS AN AREA OF BETTER LIFT
BETWEEN 18Z AND 21Z SO WILL ALSO INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN
THIS REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON. -RB
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 242 AM CST SUN JAN 22 2012/
DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
THE REGIONAL AND SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES THIS MORNING INCLUDE A
RAPIDLY ADVANCING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/PV ANOMALY FROM THE WESTERN
STATES THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE, STEADY
SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS HAVE BECOME NEARLY NEUTRAL ON MSAS ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS FROM WYOMING THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS. SOUTHERLY, BETTER
THAN EXPECTED MIXED SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES
HAVE HELPED MAINTAIN MILD TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT IN THE LOW 50S AND
UPPER 40S. AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES, INCREASING PERIODICITY OF
MID LEVEL CLOUD BANDS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP WHICH ARE BEING
OBSERVED IN THE REGIONAL 11-3.9 MICRON AND INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY.
THE CURRENT MODELS RUNS HAVE COME TOGETHER WITH MUCH STRONGER 2
METER WIND SPEEDS THAN A FEW RUNS AGO, AND ALL OF THE MODELS SEEM TO
BE INCREASING MAGNITUDE WITH TIME. THERE IS NOT A SIGNIFICANTLY
DEEP UNSTABLE LAYER, BUT THE NAM DOES INDICATE VERY IMPRESSIVE LOW
LEVEL 0-1 KM LAPSE RATES LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON NEAR
10 DEG C/KM IN AN ENVIRONMENT WITH 40 KNOT SUSTAINED WINDS JUST
OFF THE SURFACE. EVEN THE 40KM GFS IS INDICATING 25 TO 30 KNOT 2
METER WINDS TODAY. GFS MOS IS PRODUCING SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS
ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES AROUND 40+ KNOTS SUSTAINED LATE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT, WE HAVE INCREASED
CONFIDENCE IN HOISTING A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR ALL AREAS ALONG
WEST OF GENERALLY THE HIGHWAY 283 CORRIDOR. A RAPIDLY COOLING
BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD BRING THE WIND SPEEDS DOWNS IN THE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON, BUT CONDITIONS MAY REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVEN THE EARLY EVENING IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES. A
DECENT LAYER OF 800-700 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT DOES SHOW UP IN
MODEL FIELDS BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW AN
IMPRESSIVE SATURATED LAYER BEHIND THE PV ANOMALY IN THE COLD POOL
OF AIR. THERMAL FIELDS INDICATE SOME DENDRITIC PRODUCTION IS
POSSIBLE AND EVEN LIKELY, BUT LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES MAY NOT
SUPPORT THAT AND RAIN SHOWERS ARE PROBABLY THE MORE LIKELY
PRECIPITATION TYPE WITH THIS WAVE.
POPS AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH RAPIDLY IN THE EVENING. THE EXTENT TO
HOW COLD IT GETS OVERNIGHT WILL DEPEND ON THE MAGNITUDE OF COLD
ADVECTION, BUT THE COLDER MOS SEEMS THE BEST CHOICE TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REBOUND SIGNIFICANTLY IN MONDAY
OTHER THAN USUAL DIURNAL HEATING AS WEAK SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW OF
COLD ANTICYLONE AIR REMAINS. ANOTHER RELATIVELY COOL NIGHT WITH GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING IN THE LOW 20S IS ANTICIPATED MONDAY
NIGHT.
LONG TERM...
BY TUESDAY NIGHT OUR NEXT PACIFIC UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL BE
DIGGING INTO SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS ALSO
STARTING TO BECOME CUT OFF FROM THE MEAN FLOW AS WELL. THE NEW 00Z
MODELS NOT DIFFERING MUCH FROM THE PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS IN THIS UPPER
LOW DEVELOPING NEAR THE MEXICO/SOUTHWEST TEXAS BORDER BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY AND THEN SLOWLY DRIFTING EAST THROUGH LATE WEEK. AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM ABUNDANT MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS ANTICIPATED TO
SPREAD INTO WESTERN KANSAS. GIVEN THE MOISTURE EXPECTED AND
DIFLUENT FLOW DEVELOPING WITH THE 500MB DEFORMATION ZONE WILL
INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND AS A RESULT OF THIS LOWER TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
ON TUESDAY NIGHT THE 500MB DEFORMATION ZONE WILL MOVE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. BEHIND THIS DEFORMATION ZONE
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE PRESENT. GIVEN THE CLEARING SKIES AND 900-850MB TEMPERATURE
TRENDS THE PREVIOUS TEMPERATURE FORECAST STILL LOOKS ON TRACK WITH
WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO WESTERN KANSAS. THIS WARMUP HOWEVER
WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TO
DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 51 22 50 23 / 40 0 0 0
GCK 50 20 49 22 / 30 0 0 0
EHA 52 23 50 25 / 20 0 0 0
LBL 52 20 50 23 / 20 0 0 0
HYS 48 20 49 20 / 60 0 0 0
P28 55 25 53 26 / 30 0 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 PM CST /4 PM MST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
KSZ030-043>045-061>064-074>078-084>088.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR KSZ031-046-065-066-
079>081-089-090.
&&
$$
FN06
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
812 AM MST SUN JAN 22 2012
.UPDATE...
803 AM MST SUN JAN 22 2012
UPDATED GRIDS AND ZONES TO ADJUST PRECIPITATION TYPES. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FOR THE FA INDICATE ALL RAIN FOR MOST OF THE MORNING AND
THEN A POSSIBLE MIX WITH SNOW AROUND NOON. SINCE THIS IS A FAST
MOVING SYSTEM EXITING THE FA BY EARLY AFTERNOON DO NOT EXPECT ANY
ACCUMULATION OTHER THAN SOME MINOR LOCALIZED AMOUNTS IN EXTREME
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA ZONES. OTHERWISE NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE
CURRENT FORECAST.
FS
&&
.DISCUSSION...
339 AM MST SUN JAN 22 2012
MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE TODAY. SATELLITE CONTINUING TO SHOW A
PROGRESSIVE AND ACTIVE WAVE TRAIN FROM THE PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. VERY STRONG SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST THIS
MORNING WILL CAUSE A RATHER ACTIVE WEATHER DAY ACROSS THE REGION.
NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA IS APPROACHING THE WEST COAST.
AT JET LEVEL THE NAM AND ECWMF WERE HANDLING THE STRONG SOUTHERN JET
APPROACHING OUR AREA AT THIS TIME. THIS WAS ESPECIALLY TRUE WITH
THE SEGMENT OVER THE OCEAN. AT MID LEVELS THE MODELS WERE HAVING A
LITTLE TROUBLE WITH THE INCOMING SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM IS VERY STRONG
NOW AND IS LOOKING LIKE IT IS STILL STRENGTHENING. IMPRESSIVE AND
WIDESPREAD HEIGHT FALLS OF A LEAST 100 METERS TO ALMOST 200 METER
IN THE 700 TO 500 MB LAYER. THE NAM...CANADIAN AND ECMWF WERE DOING
THE BEST WITH THE SYSTEM AND WERE THE DEEPEST/SLOWEST.
TODAY/TONIGHT...00Z MODEL DATA CAME IN AND WAS STRONGER...SLOWER...
AND COLDER WITH INCOMING SYSTEM. PV ANALYSIS SHOWS THE 1.5 VALUE
DOWN AS LOW AS NEAR 500 MB. SIGNIFICANT SUBSIDENCE IS OCCURRING ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM. LIGHTNING ALSO HAS OCCURRED WITH THE
SYSTEM. NO MATTER WHICH MODEL ONE CHOOSES...THEY ALL PRODUCE HIGH
WIND WARNING CRITERIA WINDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH THE GFS THE
STRONGEST. THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA WILL HAVE THE HIGH
SPEEDS AND GUSTS DUE TO VERY HIGH LAPSE RATES...STRONGEST DOWNWARD
MOTION...AND HIGHEST THREE HOUR PRESSURE RISES. ALREADY HAVE ISSUED
AN UPDATE TO HAVE A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FROM 13Z
TO 01Z. COMPARISONS BETWEEN DIFFERENT STORMS IS NEVER PERFECT.
HOWEVER...THIS SETUP IS SIMILAR TO HIGH WIND EVENT THAT AREA
EXPERIENCED ON DECEMBER 31.
WHAT MAKES THIS SITUATION EVEN MORE INTERESTING IS THE PRECIPITATION
FORECAST. WIDESPREAD LIGHT PRECIPITATION LOOKS LIKE IT WILL OCCUR
OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. MODELS ARE NOW COLDER AND SHOWING SNOW WILL
BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE. THIS
WILL CREATE BLOWING SNOW PROBLEMS. CHOSE TO HANDLE THIS SITUATION
WITH ENHANCED WARNING FOR THE SNOW IN THE NPW. DAY SHIFT WILL NEED
TO TAKE A CLOSE LOOK AT THIS. WILL WATCH THE TEMPERATURES FOR AS
LONG AS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND MAKE FINAL ADJUSTMENTS ON THE MAXES...
WHICH LOOK TO BE EARLY IN THE DAY. LATEST CANADIAN AND ESPECIALLY
THE HRRR CAPTURING REALITY WELL AND ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY. THIS ALSO
MAY CAUSE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE PRECIPITATION PHASE. LATEST OBSERVATIONS
AND MODEL DATA SUPPORT THE WEATHER AND POP FORECAST PUT IN BY THE
EVENING SHIFT. NEWER DATA DOES SUPPORT A LITTLE MORE QPF THAN EARLIER
WAS THINKING. SO DID RAISE QPF AND SNOW AMOUNTS A LITTLE.
NEXT QUESTION IS WHAT TO DO WITH THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH. NEWER MODEL
GUIDANCE DOES NOT DROP DEWPOINTS AS MUCH AS BEFORE. PLUS
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO NOT BE AS WARM DUE TO THE SLOWER PROGRESSION
OF THE SYSTEM. ALSO EXPECT SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO HAVE OCCURRED
AS WELL. AT PRESENT...THERE ONLY APPEARS TO BE AN EXTREMELY SMALL
WINDOW WHERE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS CAN BE MET. ALSO BY THE
TIME THE DEWPOINTS COME DOWN...TEMPERATURES HAVE ALSO COOLED FROM
EARLY DAY MAXES. SO WILL CANCEL THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH.
WINDS LOOK TO DECOUPLE RATHER QUICKLY AND WILL HAVE LOW DEWPOINTS.
LOWERED MINS A LITTLE BUT STILL MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED.
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...LIGHTER WINDS AND A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUN
BEHIND EXITING SYSTEM AND SURFACE RIDGE. THINKING IS THAT THERE WILL
BE MORE COLD AIR WITH THIS SYSTEM THAN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED PLUS
MAY BE SOME MINOR SNOW COVER ON THE GROUND. MODEL GUIDANCE NOT TOO
DIFFERENT BUT TRENDED TOWARD THE COOLER GUIDANCE. CLOUD COVER STARTS
INCREASING DURING THE NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM.
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...STRONG NORTH TO SOUTH JET EXISTS BEHIND
INCOMING SYSTEM. MAIN UPPER SYSTEM IS NOW FURTHER SOUTH THAN
YESTERDAY WITH MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON ITS LOCATION OVER NEW
MEXICO. HOWEVER...THE CANADIAN IS FURTHER SOUTH THAN THAT WITH THE
SREF IN BETWEEN THE CANADIAN AND THE REMAINING GUIDANCE. MORE OPEN
BUT STILL MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHERN PORTION OF THIS SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS AREA WITH SMALL SCALE 700 MB CIRCULATIONS IN FAVORABLE
LOCATIONS. MODELS BRING A GREAT DEAL OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE
AREA DURING THE DAY WITH THE LOWER LEVELS BEING SLOWER TO MOISTEN
UP. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE SHOWING RATHER STRONG MESOSCALE AND
SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING WITH FAVORABLE THETA-E LAPSE RATES IN PLACE.
MOST MODEL OUTPUT SHOWING VERY LIGHT QPF AND CONSIDERING ALL
PARAMETERS THAT MAKES SENSE. THINKING THE LIKELIHOOD OF MEASURABLE
IS LOW BUT THE PROBABILITY OF SOMETHING FALLING FROM THE SKY IS
RATHER HIGH. SO INSERTED SPRINKLES AND FLURRIES INTO THE FORECAST
FOR THE ENTIRE DAY AND INTO EARLY IN THE EVENING. DAY SHIFT WILL
HAVE TO TAKE ANOTHER CLOSE LOOK AT THIS DAY. CONSIDERING THE
THICKENING CLOUD COVER...UNFAVORABLE WIND DIRECTION...AND SOME COLD
AIR ADVECTION...TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT DO MUCH THROUGH THE DAY.
THE NAM WAS MUCH COLDER THAN THE REST BUT AM NOT READY TO GO THERE
YET. DID LOWER MAXES SOME TO START TRENDING IN THAT DIRECTION.
BULLER
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGE EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER
CWA AS TROUGH SHIFT EAST. RESULT WILL BE DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMING
TREND THROUGH THURSDAY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED BOTH WED AND
THU...WITH MID/UPPER 50S ON THURSDAY. SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS
NORTHERN PLAINS FRI/SAT WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH
OVER CWA. SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE ON
TIMING OF THESE FEATURES...WITH ECMWF CURRENTLY FASTER AND WETTER.
CONSIDERING POSITION OF SHORTWAVE AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ENSEMBLE
SUPPORT FOR ECMWF SOLUTION...IVE KEPT FORECAST DRY. I ALSO KEPT
TEMPS CLOSER TO CLIMATE NORMALS SHOWING A TEMPERED COOING TREND
FRI/SAT RATHER THAN THE COLDER ECMWF SOLUTION. IN ANY
CASE...CONFIDENCE BELOW NORMAL FOR DAYS 6/7.
DR
THANKS TO ALL THAT COLLABORATED.
&&
.AVIATION...
410 AM MST SUN JAN 22 2012
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE AFTER 15Z
AS STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE PLAINS FROM THE WEST. STRONG
WINDS AND LIGHT SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD BOTH TERMINALS FROM THE WEST TO
THE EAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH LIGHT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW AFTER 16Z AT KGLD AND
17Z AT KMCK. WHILE POSSIBLE...CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IFR
CIGS IN TAFS THIS CYCLE WITH THESE CONDITIONS NOT EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL. BY 00Z BOTH TERMINALS SHOULD SEE CIGS AND VIS QUICKLY RISE
TO VFR AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS
OF 30-40KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE COMMON DURING THE DAY. AT KGLD
GUSTS AROUND 55KTS OR HIGHER ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN 16Z-21Z...WITH
GUSTS UP TO 50KTS OVER KMCK 18Z-00Z.
DR
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST /7 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.
NE...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST /7 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ079>081.
CO...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ090>092.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
709 AM CST SUN JAN 22 2012
.UPDATE...
LIGHT PRECIPITATION BEGINNING TO SPREAD INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS
BASED ON MOSAIC RADAR. BASED ON THE RUC THE HIGHER RETURNS
APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF 850-700MB FRONTOGENESIS
UNDER THE 500MB DEFORMATION ZONE. THIS BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS IS
CURRENTLY FORECAST TO MOVE TO NEAR SYRACUSE AND SCOTT CITY BY 15Z
AND THEN CROSS THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS BETWEEN 15Z AND
21Z. HAVE THEREFORE ADJUSTED TIMING OF INCREASING CLOUDS AND
DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION. LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 250 JET CONTINUES
TO HIGHLIGHT NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AS AN AREA OF BETTER LIFT
BETWEEN 18Z AND 21Z SO WILL ALSO INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN
THIS REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON. -RB
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 512 AM CST SUN JAN 22 2012/
AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE...
NAM12 AND RUC40 WERE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE EARLY THIS MORNING. AS OF 9Z THESE MODELS WERE NOT DOING
THAT BAD WITH THE FRONTS POSITION ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS. AS A
RESULT WILL FOLLOW THE TIMING OF THESE MODELS, AS WELL AS
INCREASING WINDS THAT WILL FOLLOW THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. BASED ON
BOUNDARY LAYER, 0-0.5KM MEAN WINDS, AND 850MB WINDS DEVELOPING BY
18Z WILL TREND TOWARDS THE STRONGER MAV GUIDANCE ON WIND SPEEDS.
THESE STRONG WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE AFTER 23Z.
IN ADDITION TO THESE STRONG WINDS MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING A 850-700
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
BETWEEN 15Z AND 21Z. IMPROVING FRONTOGENESIS WILL OCCUR IN THIS
AREA WHICH WILL BE LOCATED AHEAD OF A 500MB UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
THIS WILL BE ENOUGH FOR A PERIOD OF LOWER VFR CIGS LATE THIS
MORNING/EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW SPRINKLES/LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
ALSO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT BUT AT THIS TIME WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED. WILL THEREFORE KEEP VICINITY
WORDING FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION LATER TODAY AS
THE 850-700MB BAROCLINIC ZONE CROSSES THE AREA.-RB
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 242 AM CST SUN JAN 22 2012/
DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
THE REGIONAL AND SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES THIS MORNING INCLUDE A
RAPIDLY ADVANCING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/PV ANOMALY FROM THE WESTERN
STATES THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE, STEADY
SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS HAVE BECOME NEARLY NEUTRAL ON MSAS ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS FROM WYOMING THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS. SOUTHERLY, BETTER
THAN EXPECTED MIXED SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES
HAVE HELPED MAINTAIN MILD TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT IN THE LOW 50S AND
UPPER 40S. AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES, INCREASING PERIODICITY OF
MID LEVEL CLOUD BANDS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP WHICH ARE BEING
OBSERVED IN THE REGIONAL 11-3.9 MICRON AND INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY.
THE CURRENT MODELS RUNS HAVE COME TOGETHER WITH MUCH STRONGER 2
METER WIND SPEEDS THAN A FEW RUNS AGO, AND ALL OF THE MODELS SEEM TO
BE INCREASING MAGNITUDE WITH TIME. THERE IS NOT A SIGNIFICANTLY
DEEP UNSTABLE LAYER, BUT THE NAM DOES INDICATE VERY IMPRESSIVE LOW
LEVEL 0-1 KM LAPSE RATES LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON NEAR
10 DEG C/KM IN AN ENVIRONMENT WITH 40 KNOT SUSTAINED WINDS JUST
OFF THE SURFACE. EVEN THE 40KM GFS IS INDICATING 25 TO 30 KNOT 2
METER WINDS TODAY. GFS MOS IS PRODUCING SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS
ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES AROUND 40+ KNOTS SUSTAINED LATE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT, WE HAVE INCREASED
CONFIDENCE IN HOISTING A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR ALL AREAS ALONG
WEST OF GENERALLY THE HIGHWAY 283 CORRIDOR. A RAPIDLY COOLING
BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD BRING THE WIND SPEEDS DOWNS IN THE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON, BUT CONDITIONS MAY REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVEN THE EARLY EVENING IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES. A
DECENT LAYER OF 800-700 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT DOES SHOW UP IN
MODEL FIELDS BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW AN
IMPRESSIVE SATURATED LAYER BEHIND THE PV ANOMALY IN THE COLD POOL
OF AIR. THERMAL FIELDS INDICATE SOME DENDRITIC PRODUCTION IS
POSSIBLE AND EVEN LIKELY, BUT LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES MAY NOT
SUPPORT THAT AND RAIN SHOWERS ARE PROBABLY THE MORE LIKELY
PRECIPITATION TYPE WITH THIS WAVE.
POPS AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH RAPIDLY IN THE EVENING. THE EXTENT TO
HOW COLD IT GETS OVERNIGHT WILL DEPEND ON THE MAGNITUDE OF COLD
ADVECTION, BUT THE COLDER MOS SEEMS THE BEST CHOICE TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REBOUND SIGNIFICANTLY IN MONDAY
OTHER THAN USUAL DIURNAL HEATING AS WEAK SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW OF
COLD ANTICYLONE AIR REMAINS. ANOTHER RELATIVELY COOL NIGHT WITH GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING IN THE LOW 20S IS ANTICIPATED MONDAY
NIGHT.
LONG TERM...
BY TUESDAY NIGHT OUR NEXT PACIFIC UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL BE
DIGGING INTO SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS ALSO
STARTING TO BECOME CUT OFF FROM THE MEAN FLOW AS WELL. THE NEW 00Z
MODELS NOT DIFFERING MUCH FROM THE PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS IN THIS UPPER
LOW DEVELOPING NEAR THE MEXICO/SOUTHWEST TEXAS BORDER BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY AND THEN SLOWLY DRIFTING EAST THROUGH LATE WEEK. AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM ABUNDANT MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS ANTICIPATED TO
SPREAD INTO WESTERN KANSAS. GIVEN THE MOISTURE EXPECTED AND
DIFLUENT FLOW DEVELOPING WITH THE 500MB DEFORMATION ZONE WILL
INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND AS A RESULT OF THIS LOWER TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
ON TUESDAY NIGHT THE 500MB DEFORMATION ZONE WILL MOVE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. BEHIND THIS DEFORMATION ZONE
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE PRESENT. GIVEN THE CLEARING SKIES AND 900-850MB TEMPERATURE
TRENDS THE PREVIOUS TEMPERATURE FORECAST STILL LOOKS ON TRACK WITH
WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO WESTERN KANSAS. THIS WARMUP HOWEVER
WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TO
DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 48 20 50 23 / 40 0 0 0
GCK 45 18 49 22 / 30 0 0 0
EHA 50 19 50 25 / 20 0 0 0
LBL 50 18 50 23 / 20 0 0 0
HYS 45 18 49 20 / 40 0 0 0
P28 50 22 53 26 / 30 0 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 10 AM CST /9 AM MST/ THIS MORNING TO 5 PM
CST /4 PM MST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR KSZ030-043>045-061>064-074>078-
084>088.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CST THIS EVENING
FOR KSZ031-046-065-066-079>081-089-090.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
548 AM CST SUN JAN 22 2012
.AVIATION...12Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION HAS RESULTED IN WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS
EARLY THIS MORNING OVER EASTERN KS. AT KCNU THEY SHOULD GRADUALLY
LIFT TO MVFR BY LATE MORNING. THINKING IFR CIGS WILL FLIRT WITH
KICT-KSLN-KHUT THROUGH LATE MORNING...BUT BRUNT OF THESE CIGS
SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF I-135 CORRIDOR. STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-
LEVEL JET OF 45-55 KTS IS AFFECTING THE AREA THIS MORNING...BUT
LLWS IS MARGINAL AT ALL TAF SITES DUE TO STRONG GROUND-LEVEL
WINDS. OTHERWISE...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BLAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ARE
ANTICIPATED BEHIND THE FRONT...ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR TO LOW
VFR CIGS AND SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. CIGS/SHOWERS SHOULD EXIT TO
THE EAST BY MID TO LATE EVENING...WITH WINDS SLACKENING SOME.
KLEINSASSER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 AM CST SUN JAN 22 2012/
DISCUSSION...
TODAY-TONIGHT:
INITIAL ISSUE IS EVOLUTION OF LOW CLOUDS...WITH RUC STRUGGLING TO
STAY IN THE BALLPARK AND OTHERS EVEN WORSE. GIVEN TRENDS...SHOULD
SEE SLOW IMPROVEMENT THROUGHOUT THE MORNING ON WESTERN EDGE...BUT
SOUTHEAST KS WILL BE VERY SLOW TO CLEAR. SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE IS
POSSIBLE IN SOUTHEAST KS...FORTUNATELY TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE
FREEZING. ALL MODELS SHOW SIGNIFICANT DRY SLOT WORKING ACROSS
SOUTHERN SECTIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF COLD AIR
ADVECTION. MEANWHILE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND LAPSE RATES
SHOULD SPREAD LOW END WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THE AREA WEST OF
A SLN-HARPER LINE FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. WITH ARRIVAL OF
850MB MOISTURE...SHOULD SEE SPRINKLES/LIGHT RAIN DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON IN CENTRAL KS...AND SPREAD INTO THE FLINT HILLS FOR A
FEW HOURS THIS EVENING. LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM
ENOUGH THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR PRECIPITATION TO REMAIN LIQUID.
DOWNGLIDE SHOULD QUICKLY SHUT DOWN PRECIPITATION IN THE EVENING.
WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BRISK FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. A TOUGH CALL
ON LOWS GIVEN THE OPPOSITE IMPACTS OF WINDS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION.
MON-MON NIGHT:
RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER ANTICIPATED WITH TEMPERATURES STILL
REMAINING AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.
TUE-TUE NIGHT:
PLAN TO STAY THE COURSE ON PRECIPITATION THIS PERIOD. MODELS
STILL STRUGGLING TO CONVERGE AS TO HOW FAR NORTH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL GO. HOWEVER BOTH GFS/ECMWF HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT THAT
EXTENSIVE HIGH CLOUDS WILL COVER THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON TUE.
USUALLY AM NOT AS CONFIDENT IN HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE MODEL
FORECASTS BEYOND DAYS 1-2...BUT THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE
DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW NE OF UPPER LOW. GIVEN THE COOL START...LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WINDS AND EXTENSIVE CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STRUGGLE.
WED-SUN:
00 UTC RUN OF THE ECMWF HAS BROKE CONTINUITY...WITH NEW RUN
RESEMBLING THE 20/12 UTC RUN. THIS IS A FASTER/DEEPER SOLN. GFS
MEANWHILE HAS BEEN STRUGGLING AS WELL...ALTHOUGH FORECAST AREA
REMAINS IN BETWEEN THE US-CANADIAN BORDER SURFACE LOW AND
INCONSISTENT WEAK UPPER LOW IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. NET RESULT AT
LEAST FOR NOW IS DRY AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. OTHERWISE WILL
NEED TO WAIT FOR MORE CONSISTENCY BEFORE MAKING ANY SUBSTANTIAL
CHANGES. -HOWERTON
AVIATION...06Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
STRATUS CLOUDS HAVE ARRIVED AHEAD OF SCHEDULE MAINLY EAST OF THE
KANSAS TURNPIKE LATE THIS EVENING. AREAS MOST LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED
BY MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY WILL BE KICT AND
KCNU. IFR/LIFR WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AT
KCNU WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE WITHIN AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL
WAA/MOISTURE ADVECTION. INCREASING LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR
SUBSIDENCE AND LOW LEVEL DRY AIR WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA IN THE
WAKE OF A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS WITH
A RETURN TO VFR ACROSS THE AREA. IN ADDITION...STRONG
WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 25-35 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.
MWM
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 48 25 51 27 / 20 10 0 0
HUTCHINSON 46 26 49 27 / 30 10 0 0
NEWTON 48 27 48 27 / 30 10 0 0
ELDORADO 53 27 50 27 / 10 10 0 0
WINFIELD-KWLD 57 27 56 29 / 10 10 0 0
RUSSELL 45 22 50 22 / 30 10 0 0
GREAT BEND 43 22 50 22 / 30 10 0 0
SALINA 46 26 51 23 / 30 10 0 0
MCPHERSON 46 26 50 25 / 30 10 0 0
COFFEYVILLE 59 31 53 29 / 10 10 0 0
CHANUTE 53 29 50 26 / 10 10 0 0
IOLA 50 30 49 27 / 10 10 0 0
PARSONS-KPPF 56 27 52 26 / 10 10 0 0
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
FOR KSZ032-033-047>051-067-082-091.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
339 AM MST SUN JAN 22 2012
.DISCUSSION...
339 AM MST SUN JAN 22 2012
MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE TODAY. SATELLITE CONTINUING TO SHOW A
PROGRESSIVE AND ACTIVE WAVE TRAIN FROM THE PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. VERY STRONG SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST THIS
MORNING WILL CAUSE A RATHER ACTIVE WEATHER DAY ACROSS THE REGION.
NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA IS APPROACHING THE WEST COAST.
AT JET LEVEL THE NAM AND ECWMF WERE HANDLING THE STRONG SOUTHERN JET
APPROACHING OUR AREA AT THIS TIME. THIS WAS ESPECIALLY TRUE WITH
THE SEGMENT OVER THE OCEAN. AT MID LEVELS THE MODELS WERE HAVING A
LITTLE TROUBLE WITH THE INCOMING SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM IS VERY STRONG
NOW AND IS LOOKING LIKE IT IS STILL STRENGTHENING. IMPRESSIVE AND
WIDESPREAD HEIGHT FALLS OF A LEAST 100 METERS TO ALMOST 200 METER
IN THE 700 TO 500 MB LAYER. THE NAM...CANADIAN AND ECMWF WERE DOING
THE BEST WITH THE SYSTEM AND WERE THE DEEPEST/SLOWEST.
TODAY/TONIGHT...00Z MODEL DATA CAME IN AND WAS STRONGER...SLOWER...
AND COLDER WITH INCOMING SYSTEM. PV ANALYSIS SHOWS THE 1.5 VALUE
DOWN AS LOW AS NEAR 500 MB. SIGNIFICANT SUBSIDENCE IS OCCURRING ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM. LIGHTNING ALSO HAS OCCURRED WITH THE
SYSTEM. NO MATTER WHICH MODEL ONE CHOOSES...THEY ALL PRODUCE HIGH
WIND WARNING CRITERIA WINDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH THE GFS THE
STRONGEST. THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA WILL HAVE THE HIGH
SPEEDS AND GUSTS DUE TO VERY HIGH LAPSE RATES...STRONGEST DOWNWARD
MOTION...AND HIGHEST THREE HOUR PRESSURE RISES. ALREADY HAVE ISSUED
AN UPDATE TO HAVE A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FROM 13Z
TO 01Z. COMPARISONS BETWEEN DIFFERENT STORMS IS NEVER PERFECT.
HOWEVER...THIS SETUP IS SIMILAR TO HIGH WIND EVENT THAT AREA
EXPERIENCED ON DECEMBER 31.
WHAT MAKES THIS SITUATION EVEN MORE INTERESTING IS THE PRECIPITATION
FORECAST. WIDESPREAD LIGHT PRECIPITATION LOOKS LIKE IT WILL OCCUR
OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. MODELS ARE NOW COLDER AND SHOWING SNOW WILL
BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE. THIS
WILL CREATE BLOWING SNOW PROBLEMS. CHOSE TO HANDLE THIS SITUATION
WITH ENHANCED WARNING FOR THE SNOW IN THE NPW. DAY SHIFT WILL NEED
TO TAKE A CLOSE LOOK AT THIS. WILL WATCH THE TEMPERATURES FOR AS
LONG AS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND MAKE FINAL ADJUSTMENTS ON THE MAXES...
WHICH LOOK TO BE EARLY IN THE DAY. LATEST CANADIAN AND ESPECIALLY
THE HRRR CAPTURING REALITY WELL AND ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY. THIS ALSO
MAY CAUSE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE PRECIPITATION PHASE. LATEST OBSERVATIONS
AND MODEL DATA SUPPORT THE WEATHER AND POP FORECAST PUT IN BY THE
EVENING SHIFT. NEWER DATA DOES SUPPORT A LITTLE MORE QPF THAN EARLIER
WAS THINKING. SO DID RAISE QPF AND SNOW AMOUNTS A LITTLE.
NEXT QUESTION IS WHAT TO DO WITH THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH. NEWER MODEL
GUIDANCE DOES NOT DROP DEWPOINTS AS MUCH AS BEFORE. PLUS
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO NOT BE AS WARM DUE TO THE SLOWER PROGRESSION
OF THE SYSTEM. ALSO EXPECT SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO HAVE OCCURRED
AS WELL. AT PRESENT...THERE ONLY APPEARS TO BE AN EXTREMELY SMALL
WINDOW WHERE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS CAN BE MET. ALSO BY THE
TIME THE DEWPOINTS COME DOWN...TEMPERATURES HAVE ALSO COOLED FROM
EARLY DAY MAXES. SO WILL CANCEL THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH.
WINDS LOOK TO DECOUPLE RATHER QUICKLY AND WILL HAVE LOW DEWPOINTS.
LOWERED MINS A LITTLE BUT STILL MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED.
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...LIGHTER WINDS AND A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUN
BEHIND EXITING SYSTEM AND SURFACE RIDGE. THINKING IS THAT THERE WILL
BE MORE COLD AIR WITH THIS SYSTEM THAN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED PLUS
MAY BE SOME MINOR SNOW COVER ON THE GROUND. MODEL GUIDANCE NOT TOO
DIFFERENT BUT TRENDED TOWARD THE COOLER GUIDANCE. CLOUD COVER STARTS
INCREASING DURING THE NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM.
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...STRONG NORTH TO SOUTH JET EXISTS BEHIND
INCOMING SYSTEM. MAIN UPPER SYSTEM IS NOW FURTHER SOUTH THAN
YESTERDAY WITH MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON ITS LOCATION OVER NEW
MEXICO. HOWEVER...THE CANADIAN IS FURTHER SOUTH THAN THAT WITH THE
SREF IN BETWEEN THE CANADIAN AND THE REMAINING GUIDANCE. MORE OPEN
BUT STILL MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHERN PORTION OF THIS SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS AREA WITH SMALL SCALE 700 MB CIRCULATIONS IN FAVORABLE
LOCATIONS. MODELS BRING A GREAT DEAL OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE
AREA DURING THE DAY WITH THE LOWER LEVELS BEING SLOWER TO MOISTEN
UP. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE SHOWING RATHER STRONG MESOSCALE AND
SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING WITH FAVORABLE THETA-E LAPSE RATES IN PLACE.
MOST MODEL OUTPUT SHOWING VERY LIGHT QPF AND CONSIDERING ALL
PARAMETERS THAT MAKES SENSE. THINKING THE LIKELIHOOD OF MEASURABLE
IS LOW BUT THE PROBABILITY OF SOMETHING FALLING FROM THE SKY IS
RATHER HIGH. SO INSERTED SPRINKLES AND FLURRIES INTO THE FORECAST
FOR THE ENTIRE DAY AND INTO EARLY IN THE EVENING. DAY SHIFT WILL
HAVE TO TAKE ANOTHER CLOSE LOOK AT THIS DAY. CONSIDERING THE
THICKENING CLOUD COVER...UNFAVORABLE WIND DIRECTION...AND SOME COLD
AIR ADVECTION...TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT DO MUCH THROUGH THE DAY.
THE NAM WAS MUCH COLDER THAN THE REST BUT AM NOT READY TO GO THERE
YET. DID LOWER MAXES SOME TO START TRENDING IN THAT DIRECTION.
BULLER
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGE EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER
CWA AS TROUGH SHIFT EAST. RESULT WILL BE DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMING
TREND THROUGH THURSDAY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED BOTH WED AND
THU...WITH MID/UPPER 50S ON THURSDAY. SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS
NORTHERN PLAINS FRI/SAT WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH
OVER CWA. SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE ON
TIMING OF THESE FEATURES...WITH ECMWF CURRENTLY FASTER AND WETTER.
CONSIDERING POSITION OF SHORTWAVE AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ENSEMBLE
SUPPORT FOR ECMWF SOLUTION...IVE KEPT FORECAST DRY. I ALSO KEPT
TEMPS CLOSER TO CLIMATE NORMALS SHOWING A TEMPERED COOING TREND
FRI/SAT RATHER THAN THE COLDER ECMWF SOLUTION. IN ANY
CASE...CONFIDENCE BELOW NORMAL FOR DAYS 6/7.
DR
THANKS TO ALL THAT COLLABORATED.
&&
.AVIATION...
1020 PM MST SAT JAN 21 2012
FOR THE 06Z TAFS AT KGLD AND KMCK...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH 15Z BEFORE
LOWERING TO IFR FROM 16Z-22Z (BOTH CIGS AND VIS) AS A POTENT BUT
QUICK MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH. BY 00Z
AT BOTH TERMINALS SHOULD SEE CIGS AND VIS QUICKLY RISE TO VFR AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 30-40KTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE COMMON. AT KGLD GUSTS OVER 50KTS EXPECTED
BETWEEN 16Z-21Z IN BOTH PRECIPITATION AND SUBSIDENCE BEHIND
DEPARTING WAVE. DURING THE TIME OF EXPECTED PRECIP SHOULD SEE
SHARPLY LOWER VISIBILITIES IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.
007
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 6 AM MST /7 AM CST/ TO 6 PM MST /7 PM
CST/ SUNDAY FOR KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.
NE...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 6 AM MST /7 AM CST/ TO 6 PM MST /7 PM
CST/ SUNDAY FOR NEZ079>081.
CO...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM MST SUNDAY FOR COZ090>092.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
314 AM CST SUN JAN 22 2012
.DISCUSSION...
TODAY-TONIGHT:
INITIAL ISSUE IS EVOLUTION OF LOW CLOUDS...WITH RUC STRUGGLING TO
STAY IN THE BALLPARK AND OTHERS EVEN WORSE. GIVEN TRENDS...SHOULD
SEE SLOW IMPROVEMENT THROUGHOUT THE MORNING ON WESTERN EDGE...BUT
SOUTHEAST KS WILL BE VERY SLOW TO CLEAR. SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE IS
POSSIBLE IN SOUTHEAST KS...FORTUNATELY TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE
FREEZING. ALL MODELS SHOW SIGNIFICANT DRY SLOT WORKING ACROSS
SOUTHERN SECTIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF COLD AIR
ADVECTION. MEANWHILE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND LAPSE RATES
SHOULD SPREAD LOW END WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THE AREA WEST OF
A SLN-HARPER LINE FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. WITH ARRIVAL OF
850MB MOISTURE...SHOULD SEE SPRINKLES/LIGHT RAIN DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON IN CENTRAL KS...AND SPREAD INTO THE FLINT HILLS FOR A
FEW HOURS THIS EVENING. LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM
ENOUGH THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR PRECIPITATION TO REMAIN LIQUID.
DOWNGLIDE SHOULD QUICKLY SHUT DOWN PRECIPITATION IN THE EVENING.
WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BRISK FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. A TOUGH CALL
ON LOWS GIVEN THE OPPOSITE IMPACTS OF WINDS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION.
MON-MON NIGHT:
RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER ANTICIPATED WITH TEMPERATURES STILL
REMAINING AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.
TUE-TUE NIGHT:
PLAN TO STAY THE COURSE ON PRECIPITATION THIS PERIOD. MODELS
STILL STRUGGLING TO CONVERGE AS TO HOW FAR NORTH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL GO. HOWEVER BOTH GFS/ECMWF HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT THAT
EXTENSIVE HIGH CLOUDS WILL COVER THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON TUE.
USUALLY AM NOT AS CONFIDENT IN HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE MODEL
FORECASTS BEYOND DAYS 1-2...BUT THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE
DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW NE OF UPPER LOW. GIVEN THE COOL START...LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WINDS AND EXTENSIVE CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STRUGGLE.
WED-SUN:
00 UTC RUN OF THE ECMWF HAS BROKE CONTINUITY...WITH NEW RUN
RESEMBLING THE 20/12 UTC RUN. THIS IS A FASTER/DEEPER SOLN. GFS
MEANWHILE HAS BEEN STRUGGLING AS WELL...ALTHOUGH FORECAST AREA
REMAINS IN BETWEEN THE US-CANADIAN BORDER SURFACE LOW AND
INCONSISTENT WEAK UPPER LOW IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. NET RESULT AT
LEAST FOR NOW IS DRY AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. OTHERWISE WILL
NEED TO WAIT FOR MORE CONSISTENCY BEFORE MAKING ANY SUBSTANTIAL
CHANGES. -HOWERTON
&&
.AVIATION...06Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
STRATUS CLOUDS HAVE ARRIVED AHEAD OF SCHEDULE MAINLY EAST OF THE
KANSAS TURNPIKE LATE THIS EVENING. AREAS MOST LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED
BY MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY WILL BE KICT AND
KCNU. IFR/LIFR WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AT
KCNU WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE WITHIN AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL
WAA/MOISTURE ADVECTION. INCREASING LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR
SUBSIDENCE AND LOW LEVEL DRY AIR WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA IN THE
WAKE OF A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS WITH
A RETURN TO VFR ACROSS THE AREA. IN ADDITION...STRONG
WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 25-35 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.
MWM
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 48 25 51 27 / 20 10 0 0
HUTCHINSON 46 26 49 27 / 30 10 0 0
NEWTON 48 27 48 27 / 30 10 0 0
ELDORADO 53 27 50 27 / 10 10 0 0
WINFIELD-KWLD 57 27 56 29 / 10 10 0 0
RUSSELL 45 22 50 22 / 30 10 0 0
GREAT BEND 43 22 50 22 / 30 10 0 0
SALINA 46 26 51 23 / 30 10 0 0
MCPHERSON 46 26 50 25 / 30 10 0 0
COFFEYVILLE 59 31 53 29 / 10 10 0 0
CHANUTE 53 29 50 26 / 10 10 0 0
IOLA 50 30 49 27 / 10 10 0 0
PARSONS-KPPF 56 27 52 26 / 10 10 0 0
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
FOR KSZ032-033-047>051-067-082-091.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1145 PM MST SAT JAN 21 2012
.UPDATE...
1110 PM MST SAT JAN 21 2012
NEEDED TO GET AN UPDATE ALREADY FOR TOMORROWS WIND AND WEATHER.
LATEST MODEL DATA SLOWER...STRONGER...AND COLDER WITH INCOMING
SYSTEM. NO MATTER WHICH MODELS WAS CHOSEN...HIGH WIND WARNING
CRITERIA LOOKS TO BE MET ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH THE HIGHEST
SPEEDS AND GUSTS IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF MY AREA. SO HAVE ISSUED
A HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 13Z TO 01Z FOR ALL OF MY CWA. SINCE MODELS
ARE COLDER...NOT ONLY IS IT PRODUCING WIDESPREAD LIGHT PRECIPITATION
BUT HAS THE PHASE AS SNOW...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
INTERSTATE. WITH THE WIND OCCURRING...THAT WILL ALSO CAUSE AREAS
OF BLOWING SNOW. CHOSE TO KEEP THE PACKAGE/FORECAST AS SIMPLE AS
POSSIBLE AND HANDLED THE SNOW/BLOWING SNOW WITH ENHANCED WORDING
IN THE HWO AND NPW. WITH THE UPDATE...WILL BE DOING FINE TUNING OF
THOSE GRIDS ALREADY SENT AS NEEDED.
BULLER
&&
.DISCUSSION...
825 PM MST SAT JAN 21 2012
LATEST 00Z NAM SHOWING THE UPPER TROUGH THAT IS TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA SUNDAY A BIT SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. ITS ALSO
SHOWING STRONGER LOW LEVEL NORTH WINDS AND SLIGHTLY COLDER 850MB
TEMPERATURES. 00Z MET GUIDANCE WINDS AND POPS HAVE INCREASED AS
WELL WITH NEAR CATEGORICAL POPS AT KMCK. 21Z SREF POPS AND WINDS
ALSO RATHER BULLISH. 00Z RUC SHOWING A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD QPF AS
WELL. NO 00Z GFS TO LOOK AT QUITE YET.
IN A NUTSHELL...MAY SEE A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WITH
PERHAPS A BIT MORE SNOW VS A RAIN/SNOW MIX...MAINLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE. ALSO...WINDS MAY BE A BIT HIGHER THEN
CURRENTLY ADVERTISED AND WITH THE POSSIBLE MORE COMMON PRECIP-TYPE
AS SNOW PRODUCE SOME RESTRICTED VISIBILITIES.
007
&&
.AVIATION...
1020 PM MST SAT JAN 21 2012
FOR THE 06Z TAFS AT KGLD AND KMCK...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH 15Z BEFORE
LOWERING TO IFR FROM 16Z-22Z (BOTH CIGS AND VIS) AS A POTENT BUT
QUICK MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH. BY 00Z
AT BOTH TERMINALS SHOULD SEE CIGS AND VIS QUICKLY RISE TO VFR AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 30-40KTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE COMMON. AT KGLD GUSTS OVER 50KTS EXPECTED
BETWEEN 16Z-21Z IN BOTH PRECIPITATION AND SUBSIDENCE BEHIND
DEPARTING WAVE. DURING THE TIME OF EXPECTED PRECIP SHOULD SEE
SHARPLY LOWER VISIBILITIES IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.
007
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 6 AM MST /7 AM CST/ TO 6 PM MST /7 PM
CST/ SUNDAY FOR KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 11 AM MST SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR KSZ013-027-041.
NE...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 6 AM MST /7 AM CST/ TO 6 PM MST /7 PM
CST/ SUNDAY FOR NEZ079>081.
CO...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM MST SUNDAY FOR COZ090>092.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 11 AM MST SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR COZ252>254.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
1120 PM CST SAT JAN 21 2012
...AVIATION UPDATE...
.DISCUSSION...
SEE PREV DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...
AREA OF STRATUS SEEN ON SATELLITE MOVING NORTH WHILE LATEST
RUC/NAM/GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASING. BECAUSE OF THIS WILL
MAINTAIN PREV FORECAST WITH SOME ADJUSTMENTS ON TIMING THE ENTRANCE
OF LOW CIGS BASED ON SATELLITE. CONFIDENCE IS ABOUT 50/50 THAT CIGS
WILL BE IFR SINCE OBS UP STREAM OVER NORTHERN OK ARE GENERALLY MVFR.
NEVERTHELESS WITH STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT CLOSE TO THE SFC THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CIGS. WITH THE STRATUS LAYER RELATIVELY
SHALLOW AM NOT SURE HOW WIDESPREAD ANY DRIZZLE MAY BE. THEREFORE
WILL ONLY MENTION SOME BR BUT EVEN IF THERE IS SOME DRIZZLE WOULD
ANTICIPATE VSBY REMAINING 3SM OR BETTER. THE NAM/GFS ARE A LITTLE
SLOWER IN BRINGING THE WIND SHIFT THROUGH THE TERMINALS...SO THE LOW
STRATUS COULD STAY WITH US FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THE DAY SUNDAY.
WOLTERS
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /844 PM CST SAT JAN 21 2012/
THE 00Z RUC AND NAM HAVE COME IN CONTINUING TO SHOW STRONG LOW LEVEL
WARM AIR ADVECTION. WITHIN THIS PATTERN AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND ADVECT NORTH INTO EASTERN KS WITH DECENT
ISENTROPIC LIFT WITHIN THE STABLE LAYER OF THE STRATUS. THIS COULD
DEVELOP SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE DURING THE MORNING SUNDAY. THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION AT THE SURFACE IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE TEMPS TO GRADUALLY
WARM THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT THINK THE DRIZZLE COULD DEVELOP BEFORE
TEMPS WARM ABOVE FREEZING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALL SHOW SFC TEMPS
ABOVE FREEZING AROUND 7AM. WITH THIS IN MIND AND LITTLE OR NO
ACCUMULATIONS ANTICIPATED IN THE PRE DAWN HOURS...WILL NOT ISSUE ANY
HEADLINE OTHER THAN TO UPDATE THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
OTHERWISE THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK WITH RESPECT TO THE NEW
NAM REGARDING THE UPPER WAVE FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY
EVENING.
WOLTERS
/329 PM CST SAT JAN 21 2012/
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WEAK LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT WORKED WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE TODAY TO PRODUCE A STUBBORN STRATUS CLOUD DECK
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. INCREASED MIXING AND WARM ADVECTION HAS
FINALLY BEGUN TO ERODE THE CLOUDS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST WITH
THE INCREASING SUNSHINE AND SOUTH WINDS HELPING TO WARM TEMPS TO 30
DEGREES AND ABOVE. THE INCREASING SOUTH WINDS ARE IN RESPONSE TO AN
INCOMING UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE. THE SURFACE LOW WAS RAPIDLY DEEPENING IN THE HIGH PLAINS
WITH PRESSURE FALLS AT 2 MB PER HOUR THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND BECOME GUSTY WITH STRONG WARM
ADVECTION ACROSS THE PLAINS. THUS...LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL LIKELY
OCCUR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET WITH TEMPERATURES THEN RISING FROM
MIDNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THE STORM SYSTEM AS A WHOLE WILL BE FAST MOVING WITH THE COLD FRONT
ENTERING THE FORECAST AREA AROUND NOON AND PUSHING INTO MISSOURI BY
7 PM. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE STRONG IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT
AND MAY FLIRT WITH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT HAVE NOT ISSUED
ANYTHING AT THIS POINT AS IT WILL BE BORDERLINE. TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO REMAIN FAIRLY WARM BEHIND THE FRONT. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF
COLD ADVECTION ALOFT IN RELATION TO THE VERY WARM TEMPS IN PLACE BUT
STILL A PACIFIC AIRMASS AND NOT PARTICULARLY COLD RELATIVE TO
TYPICAL JANUARY TEMPS.
AS FAR AS PRECIP CHANCES ARE CONCERNED...IT APPEARS THAT DRIZZLE
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS DURING THE MORNING HOURS IN
THE WARM MOIST ADVECTION REGIME WITH AMPLE ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN THE
LOW LEVELS. A BETTER CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL COME BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT AS THE MAIN UPPER PV ANOMALY MOVES OVERHEAD. DEEP
MOISTURE IS LIMITED...ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE DENDRITIC ZONE BUT LIFT
MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO BRING A BAND OF PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA. THE
BEST CHANCES APPEAR TO BE NORTH OF I-70 BUT COULD EXTEND SOUTH IF
MOISTURE QUALITY IS SUFFICIENT. TEMPERATURE PROFILES ARE BORDERLINE
FOR RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW...AGAIN WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR LIGHT
SNOW NORTH OF I-70. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. ANY
PRECIP WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT.
BARJENBRUCH
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...EXPECT PRECIP TO COME TO AN END BY EARLY
MONDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST...ALLOWING
FOR LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE TO TAKE OVER. FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST KANSAS WHICH SHOULD
KEEP MILD TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE WEEK.
SOUTHERLY WINDS IN RESPONSE TO AN INVERTED TROUGH WHICH WILL LIKELY
TAKE SHAPE OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THE WARM UP WILL BE
TEMPERED...ESPECIALLY IN FAR NORTHERN KANSAS AS THE WEAKLY DEFINED
WARM FRONT WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME REACHING THE KS/NE BORDER.
NONETHELESS THE ENTIRE NORTHEASTERN KANSAS AREA WILL LIKELY SEE
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WITH HIGHS REGULARLY REACHING
THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME ON
TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A QUICKLY MOVING NORTHERN
STREAM TROUGH GLIDES THROUGH THE AREA. WITH LOW LEVEL DRY AIR
REMAINING IN PLACE AND MEAGER LIFT DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
PRECIP FROM THIS FLEETING SYSTEM. A SOUTHERN STREAM CUTOFF LOW WILL
BE A BIT MORE DISCERNIBLE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...HOWEVER MODELS
HAVE BEEN TRENDING THIS CUTOFF LOW FURTHER SOUTH WITH EACH RUN...SO
DO NOT EXPECT ANNY PRECIP FROM THIS TROUGH. ASIDE FROM THIS SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR PRECIP MIDWEEK EXPECT THE REMAINING PORTION OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST TO REMAIN EVENT FREE WITH MILD TEMPS.
JL
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1020 PM MST SAT JAN 21 2012
.DISCUSSION...
825 PM MST SAT JAN 21 2012
LATEST 00Z NAM SHOWING THE UPPER TROUGH THAT IS TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA SUNDAY A BIT SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. ITS ALSO
SHOWING STRONGER LOW LEVEL NORTH WINDS AND SLIGHTLY COLDER 850MB
TEMPERATURES. 00Z MET GUIDANCE WINDS AND POPS HAVE INCREASED AS
WELL WITH NEAR CATEGORICAL POPS AT KMCK. 21Z SREF POPS AND WINDS
ALSO RATHER BULLISH. 00Z RUC SHOWING A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD QPF AS
WELL. NO 00Z GFS TO LOOK AT QUITE YET.
IN A NUTSHELL...MAY SEE A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WITH
PERHAPS A BIT MORE SNOW VS A RAIN/SNOW MIX...MAINLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE. ALSO...WINDS MAY BE A BIT HIGHER THEN
CURRENTLY ADVERTISED AND WITH THE POSSIBLE MORE COMMON PRECIP-TYPE
AS SNOW PRODUCE SOME RESTRICTED VISIBILITIES.
007
&&
.AVIATION...
1020 PM MST SAT JAN 21 2012
FOR THE 06Z TAFS AT KGLD AND KMCK...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH 15Z BEFORE
LOWERING TO IFR FROM 16Z-22Z (BOTH CIGS AND VIS) AS A POTENT BUT
QUICK MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH. BY 00Z
AT BOTH TERMINALS SHOULD SEE CIGS AND VIS QUICKLY RISE TO VFR AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 30-40KTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE COMMON. AT KGLD GUSTS OVER 50KTS EXPECTED
BETWEEN 16Z-21Z IN BOTH PRECIPITATION AND SUBSIDENCE BEHIND
DEPARTING WAVE. DURING THE TIME OF EXPECTED PRECIP SHOULD SEE
SHARPLY LOWER VISIBILITIES IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.
007
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM MST /7 AM CST/ TO 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/
SUNDAY FOR KSZ002>004-015-016-027>029-041-042.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM 6 AM MST /7 AM CST/ SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR KSZ001-013-014.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
FOR KSZ013-027-041.
NE...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM MST /7 AM CST/ TO 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/
SUNDAY FOR NEZ079>081.
CO...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 5 PM MST SUNDAY FOR COZ092.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM 6 AM MST SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
FOR COZ090-091.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
FOR COZ252>254.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
931 PM EST MON JAN 23 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
GUSTY WINDS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS A FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE
AREA. MIDWEST HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW WITH DRY, CHILLY
CONDITIONS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT COMING FROM THE
ROCKIES WILL BRING A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW THURSDAY, AND COLDER
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LATE EVENING ENHANCED SHORT TERM FORECAST UPDATE HAS BEEN ISSUED
TO REMOVE POPS FROM MOST LOCATIONS AS SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF
A FRONT MOVE EAST OF THE AREA.
02Z RUC MID-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A CLOSED LOW NORTH OF LAKE
SUPERIOR WITH ITS ASSOCIATED TROUGH SLIDING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REMAINS IN A SOUTHWESTERLY 500MB
FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. AT THE SURFACE, A 996MB LOW IS LOCATED
NEAR THE HUDSON BAY WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH OF THIS
FEATURE. WITH AN OCCLUSION NORTHEAST OF PITTSBURGH, A COLD FRONT
EXTENDS SOUTHWARD AND HAS SHIFTED EAST INTO THE RIDGES OF PA, MD,
AND WV. SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL TROUGH HAVE MOSTLY
PUSHED EAST OF THE AREA.
TONIGHT...FRONTAL TROUGH WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA WITH STRONG COLD
AIR ADVECTION THROUGH DAWN. WIND GUSTS WILL DIMINISH MOSTLY BY 06Z
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BROADENS. A DRY FORECAST IS IN PLACE AS A
STRATOCUMULUS DECK SLOWLY ADVECTS INTO THE AREA AND INCREASES
CLOUD COVERAGE. TEMP FORECAST CONSISTS OF A HRRR/LAMP BLEND AS
TEMPS WILL DROP QUICKLY INTO THE LOWER 30S OVERNIGHT.
TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW OFF OF LAKE ERIE MAY ALLOW FOR FEW
FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS NORTH OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR, WITH
OTHERWISE A DRY FORECAST REMAINING IN PLACE. HIGH TEMPS ARE
GENERALLY 3-5 DEGREES COOLER THAN A MAV/MET BLEND, AS THE ARCTIC
AIR MASS WILL HAVE BUILT INTO THE AREA AND CLOUD COVERAGE,
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-70, LIMITS DAYTIME HEATING. HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE I-80 CORRIDOR TO THE LOWER 40S
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL WV AND EASTERN OHIO.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVERHEAD TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING CALM AND
CLEAR CONDITIONS.
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
OVER THE GULF COAST. 12Z GFS IS THE FAST OUTLIER WITH BRINGING IN
PRECIPITATION BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND WILL STICK WITH MORE
CONSENSUS...SLOWER SOLUTIONS.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT MODEL PROFILES WILL BE NEAR
FREEZING MOST OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME FREEZING PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO GO WITH ANYTHING OTHER THAN RAIN/SNOW IN THE
FORECAST FOR NOW.
PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ON THURSDAY...AND
WILL GENERALLY GO WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS DURING THE DAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONCURRING WITH HPC GUIDANCE, MADE FORECAST WITH MORE PREFERENCE TO
ECMWF MODEL OUTPUT. HENCE EXPECT MIXED PRECIPITATION THURSDAY NIGHT
TO BECOME SHOWERY FRIDAY AS TEXAS-BRED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PHASES
WITH PLAINS-BRED COLD FRONT IN THEIR EASTWARD PASSAGE THROUGH
THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT.
WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL JETSTREAM, DEVELOPING A COLD TROUGH OVER
CENTRAL CANADA THIS WEEKEND, THE NORTHERN JETSTREAM BRANCH WILL
PROMOTE ADDITIONAL PLAINS-BRED COLD FRONTS TO MOVE EASTWARD
THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY AND MONDAY.
REGARDING TEMPERATURE DETAILS, PER RECENT HPC GUIDANCE AND NAEFS
MODEL OUTPUT, FORECASTED A COOL DOWN IN TEMPERATURES IN THE WAKE OF
THURSDAY NIGHT`S SYSTEMS, WITH VALUES PERHAPS AS COLD AS 5 TO 10
DEGREES COLDER THAN NORMAL IN THE WAKE OF SATURDAY`S COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. HENCE WHATEVER PRECIPITATION COMES SUNDAY INTO EARLY
MONDAY, IT WILL BE SHOWERS OF SNOW RATHER THAN RAIN.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ENSUING POSTFRONTAL COOL DOWN, BEST DEPICTED BY NAM MODEL
PROFILES, WILL PROMOTE A WELL-MIXED SURFACE LAYER TONIGHT, WHICH
WILL MAINTAIN MVFR STRATOCUMULUS AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 20-25 KT.
A DEVELOPING CAPPING TEMPERATURE INVERSION NEAR 5 KFT AGL WILL
RESTRICT INSTABILITY SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. BY TUESDAY
MORNING...SURFACE WIND GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT.
STRATOCUMULUS CEILINGS COULD LIFT TO VFR LEVELS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN TERMINALS BY AFTERNOON. BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING
COULD STILL SUPPORT GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KT LATE TUESDAY MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
VFR WEATHER IS EXPECTED UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY. MIXED PRECIPITATION AND RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST FROM TEXAS. AN
ADDITIONAL PERIOD OF RESTRICTIONS IS POSSIBLE WITH A COLD FRONTAL
BAND OF SHOWERS SATURDAY.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1212 AM EST SUN JAN 22 2012
UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
.SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 352 PM EST
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW WNW FLOW ALF OVER
THE UPR LKS BTWN ARCTIC VORTEX CENTERED OVER HUDSON BAY ASSOCIATED
WITH RECENT INTENSE CHILL AND PROGRESSIVE UPR RDG SHIFTING E THRU
THE NRN PLAINS. SFC/H85 RDG AXIS HAS BROUGHT RELATIVELY TRANQUIL WX
TO THE FA TDAY WITH MID LVL DRY AIR SHOWN ON THE 12Z GRB RAOB. TEMPS
HAVE RISEN STEADILY FM MRNG LOWS ARND -25F OVER THE INTERIOR W. SOME
LES LINGERS EARLY THIS AFTN OVER THE KEWEENAW AND IN AREAS WELL E OF
MQT WITH H85 TEMPS STILL AOB -15C...BUT BACKING LLVL FLOW TO THE SW
THAT SIGNALS A RETREAT OF THE ARCTIC AIR IS CAUSING THE SHSN TO
DRIFT TO THE NE. IN FACT...WAD MID CLD BEST DEPICTED BY THE RH SHOWN
ON THE 12Z NAM 290-295K ISENTROPIC SFCS/H6-7/ AND WELL IN ADVANCE OF
SHARP H85 WARM FNT PUSHING THRU THE NRN PLAINS IS ALREADY MOVING FM
NRN MN INTO THE WRN CWA. BUT GENERALLY DRYNESS OF THE 12Z INL RAOB
IS PREVENTING ANY PCPN. SOME -SN IS SHOWING UP NEAR LK WINNIPEG. TO
THE S...THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF LO CLD S OF THE HI CENTER IN
WI...AND THIS ST/SC IS STARTING TO STREAM NWD INTO SW MN. FARTHER
W...12Z H85 TEMPS WERE UP TO 6C IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES BEHIND THE
WARM FNT. A VIGOROUS SHRTWV IS DIGGING SEWD INTO THE SW STATES.
THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW LTG STRIKES NEAR THE TRACK OF THIS
FEATURE...AND NEARBY PIREPS INDICATE H3 WIND SPEEDS UP TO 175KT
WITHIN SUPPORTING UPR JET THAT IS WELL DEFINED ON WV IMAGERY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TNGT AND SUN/... ISSUED AT 352 PM EST
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THIS PERIOD ARE IMPACT OF RETURNING WARM AIR
IN VIGOROUS WAD PATTERN THAT WL SET UP IN RETURN SLY FLOW BTWN
DEPARTING HI PRES RDG TO THE E AND DVLPG LO PRES IN THE PLAINS
ASSOCIATED WITH VIGOROUS HGT FALLS IN ADVANCE OF SHRTWV NOW MOVING
INTO THE SW STATES.
TNGT...WITH STRENGTHENING LLVL SLY FLOW...EXPECT ANY LES NEAR LK SUP
TO DRIFT OFFSHORE BY LATE IN THE AFTN. SINCE THE AIRMASS WL STILL BE
COLD ENUF FOR LES EARLY WITH H85 TEMPS ARND -12C...GOING FCST OF
SOME LK CLD/SHSN OFF LK MI INTO THE FM ISQ-ERY STILL LOOKS ON TRACK.
BUT THIS PCPN SHOULD DIMINISH AS TEMPS RISE THRU THE NGT. IN FACT...
H85 WIND INCRSG UP TO 50KTS TOWARD WRN LK SUP BY 12Z SUN ARE FCST TO
PUSH H85 TEMPS NEAR 0C IN THAT AREA TOWARD DAYBREAK. THIS
STRENGTHENING SSW FLOW WL ALSO DRAW THE LO CLD NOW WELL TO THE S
INTO THE WRN AND CNTRL CWA. BUT DOWNSLOPE NATURE OF THE FLOW OVER
THE W AND NCNTRL SHOULD RESULT IN SOME DISSIPATION OF THIS CLD
COVER. TO THE NW...THE AREA OF SN NOW NEAR LK WINNIPEG WL LIKELY
SHIFT NEAR ISLE ROYALE WITH PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC ASCENT SHOWN ON
THE 290-295K SFCS...MORE SATURATED PROFILE DOWN TO THE SFC...AND
INCRSG UPR DVGC IN RRQ OF H3 JET MAX IN ONTARIO AND IN EXIT REGION
OF ANOTHER UPR JET EMERGING ON THE E SIDE OF DEEPENING UPR TROF IN
THE PLAINS. WITH 5-6K FT DEEP DRY WEDGE SHOWN ON FCST SDNGS FOR
CMX...SUSPECT THE BULK OF THIS PCPN WL REMAIN TO THE NW OF THE
KEWEENAW. SO CUT POPS INTO THE CHC CATEGORY FOR THAT AREA WITH HIER
POPS TO THE N. EXPECT THE LOWEST TEMPS EARLY TNGT...WITH THE MERCURY
RISING LATER AS INCRSG S WIND ADVECTS MORE LLVL MSTR INTO THE AREA.
TENDED TO LOWER EARLY EVNG TEMPS OVER THE INTERIOR CNTRL BEFORE
ARRIVAL OF THICKER CLD COVER/ONSET OF STRONGER WINDS CAUSES TEMPS TO
RISE OVERNGT.
SUN...THE WX WL BE DOMINATED BY THE ARRIVAL OF INCRSG LLVL MSTR IN
STEADY SSE WIND BTWN DEPARTING HI PRES RDG AND DVLPG LO IN THE
PLAINS. ALTHOUGH CONTINUED WAD WL TEND TO RESULT IN INCRSG MID LVL
MSTR AS WELL...MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A PERSISTENT DRY WEDGE
CENTERED ARND H85 THRU THE DAY BTWN THE LLVL AND HIER LVL
MOISTENING. MAINTAINED MAINLY SCHC POPS FOR LARGER SCALE PCPN...HIER
TO THE NW. ANY PCPN WL LIKELY BE SN AND PSBLY SLEET WITH WARM
WEDGE/H85 TEMPS POTENTIALLY UP TO 5C IN THE DRY LYR THAT MIGHT MELT
SN FLAKES ABV RESIDUAL COLD AIR JUST ABV THE SFC...WHERE TEMPS ARE
FCST TO REMAIN AS LO AS -6C TO -8C. ALSO INCLUDED MENTION OF FZDZ
MAINLY OVER THE SCNTRL WHERE GUIDANCE SHOWS INCRSG SFC DEWPTS IN
AREA OF UPSLOPE SSE FLOW. LIMITING FACTOR WL BE FAIRLY HI SFC DEWPT
DEPRESSIONS NOW OBSVD TO THE S/STRONG WINDS THAT MIGHT MAINTAIN A
SLIGHT INVERTED V LLVL THERMAL/MSTR PROFILE.
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY/...
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER LAKES AND MIXED PRECIPITATION
ISSUES IS THE MAIN CONCERN OF THE LONG TERM.
BY SUNDAY EVENING...SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH AT LEAST TWO EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES/PV ANOMALIES WILL BE OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS. MAJORITY OF
MODELS AGREE IN THIS IDEA. 12Z NAM IS ON ITS OWN SHOWING STRONGER
PIECE OF ENERGY SHOOTING NORTH INTO MN. ALL OTHER GUIDANCE...SAVE
THE SREF WHICH HAS MANY NAM MEMBERS WITHIN IT...KEEPS STRONGEST
ENERGY MORE OVR SOUTHERN PLAINS. BASED ON POSITION OF UPPER JET
AHEAD OF TROUGH...THINK NAM IS TOO STRONG WITH SHORTWAVE OVR MN.
THIS LEADS TO A MUCH FARTHER NORTH TRACK TO SFC LOW ON MONDAY
(NORTHERN LK SUPERIOR MONDAY MORNING INSTEAD OF OVR SOUTHERN LK
MICHIGAN). SO AS MUCH AS WOULD HAVE LIKED TO HAVE THE HIGHER
RESOLUTION NAM THERMAL PROFILES TO USE IN THIS FCST...HAVE TO
DISCOUNT THE NAM AT THIS TIME. SHOULD NOTE THAT IT APPEARS THE 12Z
NAM IS TRENDING TOWARD MAJORITY OF OTHER MODELS...SO MAYBE IT WILL
BE MORE USEFUL IN 24 HRS. MOVING ON THAT LEAVES THE ECMWF AND UKMET
IDEA (WHICH HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT AND PREFERRED WITH THIS SYSTEM FOR
SOME TIME NOW) AS WELL AS THE GFS WHICH BEGAN TRENDING TOWARD
ECMWF/UKMET IDEA WITH THE 18Z RUN ON 1/20. CANADIAN ALSO PRETTY MUCH
IN LINE NOW AS WELL...THOUGH RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY WITH SFC LOW
TRACK ON MONDAY STILL NOT THE GREATEST. SHOULD NOTE...12Z GFS DID
TREND A BIT TOWARD NAM IDEA AND WAS NOT PREFERRED BY HPC. 12Z
ECMWF/CANADIAN/UKMET REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS.
APPEARS THAT THOUGH THERE IS SOME INTERACTION WITH NORTHERN STREAM
LATER MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MAINLY SOUTHERN
STREAM ORIGIN. WITH THAT WILL COME GOOD TAP OF GULF MOISTURE WITH
PWATS OVR 250 PCT OF NORMAL BY 12Z MONDAY OVR MOST OF THE CWA.
POSITION OF H85 TROUGH AND SRLY H85 WINDS PUT STRONGEST H85 THETA-E
ADVECTION OVER EAST HALF OF CWA BTWN 09Z-15Z MONDAY. HEAVIEST QPF IS
FCST OVR CNTRL AND EAST CWA. RUN TOTAL QPF THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY (WHEN
DEEPER MOISTURE/HIGHER PWATS SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST INTO
ONTARIO/QUEBEC) RANGE FROM 0.50-0.90 OF AN INCH WITH CANADIAN UP OVR
1 INCH...HEAVIEST CNTRL CWA DUE TO DEFORMATION ON BACK EDGE OF
H85-H7 LOWS AND IT IS ALSO WHERE THERE IS A HINT OF A TROWAL HANGING
BACK OVR THE AREA AS H85-H7 LOWS MAINTAIN STEADY STRENGTH WHILE
HEADING INTO ONTARIO.
LOW-LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES WILL BE CRITICAL COMPONENT WITH THIS
SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY THROUGH NOON ON MONDAY. BASED ON 0C H85
LINE...RAIN WILL BE MAIN PTYPE EAST OF MARQUETTE AND DICKINSON
COUNTIES...WITH SNOW TO THE WEST. TROUBLE IS THAT SFC-BLYR TEMPS
WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO FREEZING AS THE RAIN ARRIVES FM THE SOUTH LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT. COULD EVEN BE SLEET OR SNOW RIGHT AT THE ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT AS WELL AS COLD AIR ALOFT SLOWLY EVADES.
BELIEVE FREEZING RAIN WILL BE BIGGEST CONCERN TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY
AND THROUGH ABOUT MID MORNING...THEN BLYR WARMING IN THE EAST SHOULD
CHANGE PTYPE TO JUST RAIN. DUE TO COLD SPELL LATELY...WARMING OF
GROUND SFC TEMPS WILL LAG THE AIR TEMPS...SO MAY BE SITUATION WHERE
TEMPS AT OBSERVATION PLATFORMS (ASOS/AWOS/RAWS) ARE IN THE MID 30S
BUT THERE IS STILL ICING OCCURRING ON COLDER UNTREATED SURFACES.
UNFORTUNATELY...THESE THERMAL QUESTIONS ABOUND THE FIRST PART OF
MONDAY WHEN BULK OF HEAVIER QPF IS FCST WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION
ALOFT AT ITS PEAK. DO THINK THERE IS A GREATER THAN 50 PCT CHANCE
OF SIGNIFICANT ICING LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...
ESPECIALLY AWAY FM THE IMMEDIATE SHORELINES OF LK SUPERIOR AND LK
MICHIGAN.
EVENTUALLY...BLYR WARMING WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY RAIN BY LATE MORNING
EAST OF MUNISING TO MENOMINEE AS SFC LOW IS FCST TO DEEPEN AND MOVE
FM SOUTHEAST WI TO SCNTRL UPR MI AND EVENTUALLY OUT OVR SOUTHEAST LK
SUPERIOR BY MONDAY EVENING. SITUATION COULD BECOME VERY FAVORABLE
FOR HEAVIER SNOW OVR CNTRL CWA THOUGH...MAINLY OVR HIGHER TERRAIN
JUST WEST OF MARQUETTE INTO PORTIONS OF KEWEENAW AND AS FAR SOUTH
AS WI BORDER...EVENTUALLY SPREADING INTO ALGER AND DELTA COUNTIES BY
LATE AFTN. PRIMARY DRIVER FOR POTENTIALLY HEAVIER SNOW IS VERY TIGHT
H85 TEMPERATURE GRADIENT OVR CNTRL CWA/INCREASING DEFORMATION ON
WEST SIDE OF CLOSED OFF H85-H7 LOWS AND LINGERING TROWAL REGION MOST
NOTED 950-750MB. NORTHERN STREAM WAVE DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM WILL ALSO LEAD TO STRONGER DEFORMATION PRECIP REGION.
HEADLINES...GIVEN THIS SYSTEM WILL BE AFFECTING THE AREA ON A MONDAY
WHEN THERE IS LOT OF TRAVEL WITH WORK/SCHOOL/ETC AND SINCE THIS
SYSTEM HAS POTENTIAL TO BE HIGHER IMPACT DUE TO AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
AVAILABLE...THINK GOING WITH A WATCH RIGHT NOW IS A GOOD IDEA. MAIN
ISSUE FOR ALGER AND DELTA COUNTY EASTWARD IS THE INITIAL ICE THREAT
LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. A MIXED BAG OF ICE AND SNOW
AND SOME SLEET IS MAIN ISSUE FOR AREAS OVR CNTRL UPR MI...BASICALLY
MARQUETTE AND DICKINSON/MENOMINEE COUNTIES. FARTHER WEST...IT WOULD
BE GENERALLY A SNOW EVENT. ONLY PLACE WHERE WINTER STORM WATCH WILL
NOT BE ISSUED IS FAR WEST CWA AS MODELS ARE VERY INSISTENT IN SHOWING
THEM BEING MISSED BY INITIAL WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIPITATION LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING AND GENERALLY KEEPING THE PRIMARY
DEFORMATION AXIS TO THE EAST OF THOSE AREAS ON MONDAY AFTN/MONDAY
EVENING. WATCHES WILL RUN FM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING FOR MARQUETTE AND DICKINSON COUNTIES WESTWARD BUT WILL KEEP
ENDING TIME SHORTER FARTHER EAST AS MOST PTYPE BY AFTN WILL BE
RAIN/DRIZZLE AND SNOW SHOULD NOT BE SIGNIFICANT...ESPECIALLY IN FAR
EAST TOWARD KERY.
LK EFFECT...POSSIBLY ENHANCED BY DEPARTING SYSTEM WILL TARGET NW
FLOW AREAS LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. GUSTY NW WINDS
WILL LEAD TO BLSN ISSUES AS WELL. WILL GO AHEAD AND RUN WATCHES
THROUGH 12Z WHERE LK EFFECT/BLSN WILL BE HAZARD LATER MONDAY NIGHT.
COORD WITH DLH...GRB...APX AND ALSO HPC ON THIS SYSTEM.
FOR THE EXTENDED /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SLIGHTLY AMPLIFIED FLOW WITH A BROAD EASTERLY TROUGH AND WEAK
WESTERN RIDGE WILL DEVELOP AND LEAD TO A GENERALLY SUSTAINED WNW/NW
FLOW OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. A SERIES
OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND RIDGES WILL PROGRESS ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE
OF THE EASTERN TROUGH AND ALLOW FOR PERSISTENT BUT SMALL PRECIP
CHANCES. HOWEVER...THERE IS DISAGREEMENT IN THE GUIDANCE WITH THE
TIMING OF EACH OF THESE PULSES.
CAA ON THE BACKSIDE OF MONDAYS DEPARTING LOW WILL CEASE TUESDAY
EVENING AS SFC/850MB WINDS BACK TO THE WEST WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
SHARP MID LEVEL RIDGE. SOME LES WILL REMAIN EARLY IN THE EVENING
ACROSS EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA...AND THROUGHOUT THE EVENING IN THE
KEWEENAW PENINSULA. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF BREAK AFTER THE RIDGE
PASSES BEFORE THE FIRST IMPULSE DIGS SOUTHEAST OUT OF SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF WERE IN
DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE STRENGTH OF THIS WAVE...BUT THE 12Z GFS
HAS TRENDED STRONGER. AT THE SAME TIME...THE GEM HAS NEARLY ZONAL
FLOW WEDNESDAY BEFORE DEVELOPING A WEAK SHORTWAVE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. ALL THREE MODELS DO KEEPS MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION OVER
LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA...SO WILL KEEP CHANCES
IN THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ONLY A VERY SHORT PERIOD OF
LES...6 TO 12 HOURS...IS POSSIBLE FOR WNW FAVORED WIND BELTS
THURSDAY AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE VERY AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING
DRY AIR AND A SHARP LOW LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THURSDAY
EVENING. EVEN MORE...RAPIDLY LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS TO BELOW
3KFT AND TEMPERATURES BELOW THE INVERSION GENERALLY >-12C WILL LOWER
GOOD LES CHANCES.
MORE DISAGREEMENT RESIDES WITH THE NEXT WAVE PROGGED TO PASS TO THE
NORTH OF THE CWA ON FRIDAY. THE 00Z ECMWF SHOWS AN OPEN WAVE AT
500MB OVER WESTERN ONTARIO 18Z FRIDAY...WHEREAS THE GFS HAS A CLOSED
500MB LOW OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA. THE GFS HAS BEEN RATHER CONSISTENT
WITH THIS FEATURE FOR THE LAST DAY WHILE THE ECMWF PULLED THE TROUGH
FURTHER SOUTH. ATTM...THE GFS SEEMS TO BE THE BETTER CHOICE...THOUGH
BOTH HAVE A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS CWA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. AS
THIS OCCURS...THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE TRACKING JUST AHEAD OF THE
MIDLEVEL LOW ALONG THE SOUTHWEST SHORE OF HUDSON BAY. NEAR THE CWA
THE FORCING WILL BE PURELY FRONTAL...WITH THE STRONGEST BAND OF
FRONTOGENESIS NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR BETWEEN 500 AND 700MB.
THERE IS ALSO CONCERN ABOUT THE LACK OF MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE AS AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE PULLED FROM DRY
CONTINENTAL AIR IN THE LEE OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY WILL BE OF WARMER PACIFIC
ORIGIN...WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS DROPPING INTO THE EVENING. NW FLOW
LES WILL STILL BE A POSSIBILITY...BUT WILL BE GREATLY SUPPRESSED BY
LOW INVERSIONS AND HIGH 850/925MB TEMPERATURES. AIR OF MORE ARCTIC
ORIGIN COMES IN BEHIND A SECONDARY COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY
MORNING...THOUGH MOISTURE IS LACKING WITH THIS FRONT AS WELL. WILL
STAY GENERALLY DRY IN TERMS ON POTENTIAL FRONTAL AND LES PRECIP
EXCEPT ALONG THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA.
&&
.AVIATION /FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
EXPECT VFR TO GIVE WAY TO MVFR CIGS AS A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET
ADVECTS ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LOW CLOUDS INTO UPPER MI
OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING. DOWNSLOPING WIND COMPONENT AT IWD/CMX
MAY BREAK UP SOME OF THE CLOUDS TIL LATE IN THE NIGHT OR THE MORNING
HRS. EXPECT A BETTER CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS IMPACTING KSAW WITH MORE OF
AN UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT. BY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...IFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED AT KSAW WITH SOME -FZDZ ALSO DEVELOPING DURING THE EVENING
AS STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION CONTINUES.
&&
.MARINE /FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE/...
OPTED TO UPGRADE GALE WATCH TO A WARNING OVER THE E PART OF LK SUP
FOR LATE TONIGHT THRU SUN WITH STRENGTHENING SLY FLOW UNDER
SHARPENING PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN DEPARTING HI PRES RIDGE TO THE E
AND DEVELOPING LO IN THE PLAINS. A NNW GALE IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY
FOR MON NIGHT/TUE AS DEEPENING LO PRES TRACKING JUST TO THE E MOVES
INTO SE CANADA. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY TUE NIGHT WITH APPROACH
OF HI PRES RIDGE. ALTHOUGH ANOTHER LO PRES MAY IMPACT THE LAKE ON
THU...NO GALES APPEAR LIKELY ATTM.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT
FOR MIZ001-003-004.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE MONDAY
NIGHT FOR MIZ005-006-011>014-085.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON FOR MIZ007.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LSZ266-267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KC
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLA
EXTENDED...TK
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
316 PM CST SUN JAN 22 2012
.DISCUSSION...
/316 PM CST SUN JAN 22 2012/
MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING. MOST RECENT SURFACE ANALYSIS IS SHOWING
AN OCCLUDING SURFACE LOW OVER KANSAS WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING
FROM CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO THE MID SOUTH. TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS
HAVE BEEN SLOWLY RISING OVER THE CWA TODAY AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO
SO INTO EARLY THIS EVENING AS THETA-E ADVECTION INCREASES FROM THE
SOUTH IN RESPONSE TO CENTRAL PLAINS UPPER TROUGH. STILL APPEARS
THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI
INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS BETWEEN 22-02Z IN AREA OF STRONG 925-850MB
MOISTURE ADVECTION. MAIN CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
OCCUR THIS EVENING WHEN VERY STRONG/DEEP ASCENT CAUSED BY THE NEGATIVELY
TILTING MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL COINCIDE WITH MODEST INSTABILITY AND
VERY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR. HRRR RUNS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT TODAY
AND REASONABLY DEPICT A LINE OF STORMS DEVELOPING QUICKLY AROUND
02Z OVER SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI THAT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
FAR EASTERN CWA BY 04Z. RUC SOUNDINGS DEPICT THAT THE LOW LEVEL
INVERSION WILL WEAKEN DURING THIS PERIOD WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
DAMAGING WIND THREAT WITH THE LINE. THERE IS ALSO SOME TORNADO
THREAT WITHIN THE LINE GIVEN 0-1KM BULK SHEAR VALUES BETWEEN
0-1KM.
PRECIPITATION WILL QUICKLY MOVE OUT OF THE AREA AFTER 06Z AS THE TROUGH/
SURFACE FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. LEFT THE CHANCE OF FLURRIES OVER
NORTHERN MISSOURI INTO WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS LATE TONIGHT INTO LATE
MORNING MONDAY ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE DEEPENING UPPER LOW. THEN
EXPECT DRY WEATHER UNTIL EARLY WEDNESDAY. 12Z GFS BROUGHT STRONGER
ASCENT ALONG WITH SOME QPF UP TO I-70 DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
THE 12Z NAM SUPPRESSED WITH PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTH...MOST LIKELY
BECAUSE IT IS BRINGING A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES TOO QUICKLY. THE 18Z VERSION OF THE NAM AND THE 12Z
ECMWF FAVOR THE NORTHERN PLACEMENT. PRECIPITATION ON THE NORTHERN
FRINGE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE LIGHT AS THERE WILL BE STEADY DRY
AIR ADVECTING INTO IT. THIS WILL ALSO LIKELY ALLOW THE RAIN TO MIX
WITH OR CHANGEOVER TO SNOW AT TIMES AS THE WET BULB REMAINS NEAR
OR BELOW ZERO.
BRITT/KANOFSKY
&&
.AVIATION...
/1136 AM CST SUN JAN 22 2012/
LOW STRATUS AND FOG WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS WITH DAYTIME MIXING CAUSING ONLY LIMITED
IMPROVEMENT HOWEVER SFC TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN ABOVE ZERO
THEREFORE THE THREAT OF FREEZING DRIZZLE HAS ENDED. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. ATTM IT LOOKS
LIKE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP NEAR KUIN/KSUS/KCPS BETWEEN
00-04Z. WINDS TURN WLY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS
EXPECTED TOMORROW MORNING AS STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MIX DOWN TO THE
SURFACE.
SPECIFICS FOR KSTL...LOW STRATUS AND FOG WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL
PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ATTM IT LOOKS LIKE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP NEAR KSTL BETWEEN 00-04Z. WINDS TURN
WLY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS EXPECTED TOMORROW
AS STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE.
KANOFSKY
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
310 PM CST SUN JAN 22 2012
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE AND CONCERN CENTERS AROUND SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW OVERNIGHT.
STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS NOW EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WITH A WEAKER SECONDARY SHORTWAVE AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS
ERN MT INTO ERN WY. AT THE SFC...LOW PRESSURE IS QUICKLY MOVING
EAST ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS WITH AN INVERTED TROF/CDFNT EXTENDING
UP THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY AT 21Z. REGIONAL MOSIAC RADAR LOOP
SHOWS A WIDENING NARROW MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL BAND OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE PCPN OCCURING JUST BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WITH
LIGHTER/WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL OCCURING IN BROADSCALE VERTICAL MOTION
ASSOCIATED DEFORMATION ZONE BEHIND THE FRONTOGENETIC BAND. THE DRY
SLOT OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEB AS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SLOWLY FILL IN THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY HAVE JUMPED INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S WITH
LOWER TO MID 50S IN EXTREME SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. COLD POCKET AT
850MB IS DIRECTLY TO OUR NORTH ACROSS ERN SD PER UPPER AIR
ANALYSIS AND RUC GUIDANCE. THIS COLD POCKET WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT
SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH EARLY EVENING...AIDING IN
QUICKLY DROPPING SFC TEMPS BELOW FREEZING BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.
PCPN WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CWA AS
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF CONTINUES TO DRIFT EWD AND
BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
FIRST PUSH IS ALREADY APPROACHING OUR FAR NWRN COUNTIES IN WELL
DEFINED MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC BAND EXTENDING FROM NERN NEB INTO
WRN KS. PCPN TYPE WITH THIS WILL BE TRICKY BUT AS WE LOOSE DAYLIGHT
AND ABOVE MENTIONED COLD PUSH FROM ERN SD ADVECTS DOWN...WE SHOULD
BEGIN TO TURN ANY LIQUID PCPN OVER TO SNOW RATHER QUICKLY AS WE
PROGRESS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. SECOND
PUSH OF LIGHT SNOW WILL COME WITH THE MORE BROADSCALE LIFT BEHIND
THE TROF IN DEFORMATION AREA. LINGERING PCPN WILL LIKELY OCCUR
AHEAD OF THE SECONDARY NRN HIGH PLAINS SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE EARLY
MONDAY MORNING HOURS.
QPF AMOUNTS ARE GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.20" IN THE NORTH AT
MOST...WITH LESS THAN 0.10" IN OUR SOUTH. GOING FORECAST HAS A
GOOD HANDLE ON SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND CONTINUE TO THINK THAT A 1-2"
SWATH ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WITH ABOUT 0.5" TOWARD THE I-80
CORRIDOR.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PICK UP BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AFTER SUNSET WITH
GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH LIKELY INTO THE OVERNIGHT. IN THE NORTH...THIS
WILL CREATE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW AND SO GOING WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW THRU 12Z STILL LOOKS GOOD. HAVE
EXPANDED THE ADVISORY SLIGHTLY SOUTH AND EAST. WITH NEAR OR LESS
THAN AN INCH OF SNOW TO THE SOUTH OF THE ADVISORY AREA...WILL HOLD
OFF ON ANY ADVISORY BUT ROADS MAY STILL BECOME SLICK WITH JUST
MINOR SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS.
THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY AND FORECAST AREA
LOOKS DRY AS WEAK UPPER RIDGING MOVES OVERHEAD. PATTERN EVOLVES
INTO A SPLIT FLOW REGIME BY TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SOUTHERN CLOSED
LOW MOVING ACROSS TEXAS AND A WEAK SHORTWAVE AXIS CROSSING THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. HAVE REMOVED POPS
TUESDAY NIGHT AS SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE FAR REMOVED
FROM THE FORECAST AREA TO INDUCE ANY PCPN.
KERN
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS MILD AND APPEARS IT
WILL BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY AND COOLER TOWARD NEXT
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH SOME QUESTION ON WHETHER IT WILL BEGIN TO
MODERATE BY DAY 7. FORECAST GENERALLY LOOKS DRY...ALTHOUGH A SMALL
PRECIP CHANCE WILL BE CARRIED IN FRIDAY PERIOD NERN ZONES. VERY
GOOD AGREEMENT EXISTED BETWEEN 12Z GFS/CMC AND 12Z/00Z ECMWF WITH A
SHORTWAVE THROUGH DRIVING A COLD FRONT ACROSS FORECAST AREA
EARLY FRIDAY. EVEN 00Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN WAS IN ACCORDANCE. SEVERAL
DIFFERENCES EXISTED...HOWEVER...IN EXACTLY HOW WARM WILL THURSDAY
BE...WITH CANADIAN EXCEPTIONALLY MILD...CLOSE TO +10 DEG C AT H85.
MEANWHILE 00Z ECMWF HAD FLIPPED TO A LITTLE BELOW ZERO FROM WARMER
SOLUTION YESTERDAY AND THEN BACK TO A WARMER ONE THIS MORNING. GFS
APPEARED TO BE A DECENT COMPROMISE AND COULD YIELD READINGS PER
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND LITTLE CHANGES WERE MADE. MILD TEMPERATURES
ALOFT AHEAD OF FRONT FRIDAY COULD MIX DOWN JUST AHEAD OF OR WITH
FROPA. SO ALTHOUGH MAX TEMPS WILL PROBABLY BE COOLER THAN
THURSDAY...GENERALLY LEFT HIGHS MOSTLY ABOVE 12Z MEX NUMBERS.
COOLING TREND WAS CONTINUED INTO SATURDAY AND TO SOME DEGREE INTO
SUNDAY EVEN THOUGH LATEST GFS/ECMWF SUGGESTED MODERATION BY DAY 7.
WITH UPPER FLOW STARTING NEXT WEEKEND NORTHWESTERLY...DIDN/T WANT TO
BE OVERLY OPTIMISTIC JUST YET WAITING FOR A MODERATING WAVE TO SHIFT
FLOW TO MORE WESTERLY.
CHERMOK
&&
.AVIATION...18Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KLNK...KOFK.
LOOK FOR SOME SIGNIFICANT CHANGES OVER THE NEXT 6HRS AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE WIND SHIFT IS STARTING AT KOFK TO THE
NORTHWEST...SOUTHWEST AT KLNK AND STILL FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT
KOMA. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE THEIR WAY TO ALL
OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH 01Z AND WILL REMAIN STRONG AT 15 TO 24KTS
SUSTAINED...WITH GUSTS 25 TO 32KTS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
VARIABLE CIGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY EVENING AS MVFR CIGS
BREAK OUT TO VFR AT TIMES. EVENTUALLY MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL
SETTLE IN. SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION MAY START AS RAIN...THEN
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE STRONG WINDS
COMBINED WITH THE SNOW SHOULD REDUCE VSBYS TO IFR AND LOCALLY
LIFR. THE BULK OF THE FALLING SNOW SHOULD BE EAST OF THE TAFS BY
12Z WITH MVFR CIGS FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING.
ZAPOTOCNY
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR NEZ011-012-
015>018-030>034-042-043.
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR IAZ043.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1237 PM CST SUN JAN 22 2012
.UPDATE...
ADJUSTED TEMPS...WX...HAZARDS AND CLDS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
BY 18Z...TEMPS HAS WARMED TO FREEZING OR WARMER ACROSS THE CWA
WITH 40S FOR MUCH AREA AND 50 AT FNB. A LINE OF SHOWERS/LIGHT RAIN
HAD DEVELOPED WITH THE WIND SHIFT FROM LEXING TO ORD TO ONL...WITH
THE SNOW LAGGING BACK TOWARD VTN. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 280
DEGREE SURFACE SATURATES PARTS OF NORTHEAST NEBRASKA FIRST AND
THEN INTO OUR WRN CWA. THE LATEST HRRR HAS THE BAND OF LIGHT
RAIN/SHOWERS PROGRESSING EAST...WITH THE RAIN/SNOW IN THE NORTH
THRU THE AFTERNOON.THE NAM/GFS ARE SIMILAR WITH DYNAMIC COOLING
CHANGING THE RAIN OVER TO SNOW IN THE WRN CWA. LEFT SOME LOW POPS
IN THE FAR EAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
DRY CONDITIONS WHERE THE CLDS HAVE CLEARED...THEN PICK UP THE
POPS AGAIN IN THE WEST WITH A GRADIENT OF HIGH POPS AND RAIN
CHANGING TO SNOW. THE NORTHWEST SHOULD SEE A LITTLE QUICKER
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW AND COULD SEE SOME LIGHT INCH
OR LESS ACCUMULATIONS IN THE NORTHWEST BY EARLY EVENING. HEADLINES
WILL NEED TO BE LOOKED AT FURTHER FOR THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE...BUT
FOR NOW INCLUDED A FEW COUNTIES SOUTH AND EAST...AND EXTENDED THE
TIME TO 12Z. THE STRONG WINDS AND FALLING SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE
AFTER MIDNIGHT...THUS FELT IT PRUDENT TO CONTINUE THE ADVISORY
WITH THE BLOWING SNOW EXPECTED. THE WINDSHIFT HAS MADE IT TO BVN
AND WINDS ARE GUSTING 26-42KTS FROM AINSWORTH WESTWARD.
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KLNK...KOFK.
LOOK FOR SOME SIGNIFICANT CHANGES OVER THE NEXT 6HRS AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE WIND SHIFT IS STARTING AT KOFK TO THE
NORTHWEST...SOUTHWEST AT KLNK AND STILL FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT
KOMA. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE THEIR WAY TO ALL
OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH 01Z AND WILL REMAIN STRONG AT 15 TO 24KTS
SUSTAINED...WITH GUSTS 25 TO 32KTS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
VARIABLE CIGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY EVENING AS MVFR CIGS
BREAK OUT TO VFR AT TIMES. EVENTUALLY MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL
SETTLE IN. SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION MAY START AS RAIN...THEN
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE STRONG WINDS
COMBINED WITH THE SNOW SHOULD REDUCE VSBYS TO IFR AND LOCALLY
LIFR. THE BULK OF THE FALLING SNOW SHOLD BE EAST OF THE TAFS BY
12Z WITH MVFR CIGS FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 549 AM CST SUN JAN 22 2012/
AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KLNK...KOFK.
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN DETERIORATING CONDITIONS
THIS AFTERNOON. AT KOMA THOUGH...WARM/MOIST OVERRUNNING SITUATION
THIS MORNING CREATING FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR -FZDZ AND IFR CIGS
BTWN 12Z-15Z. OTHERWISE...AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL BE
PUSHING ACROSS ERN NEB BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS
AROUND 30KT EXPECTED WITH A GRADUAL SHIFT TO NORTHWEST LEADING UP
TO FRONTAL PASSAGE...18Z AT KOFK...21Z AT KOMA...19Z AT KLNK.
BTWN 23/00Z-06Z -SN/BLSN WILL DROP CONDITIONS DOWN TO IFR CAT. VFR
CIGS THEN PREVAILING THRU THE RST OF THE FCST PD WITH NW WINDS
REMAINING GUSTY AROUND 25KT. CROSS WIND ACTIVITY MAY BE AN ISSUE
AT ALL TERMINALS LEADING UP TO FRONTAL PASSAGE.
DEE
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 AM CST SUN JAN 22 2012/
PRECIPITATION CHANCES/TYPES/AMOUNTS THROUGH TONIGHT REMAIN THE
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS.
STRONG MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING THROUGH THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION THIS MORNING. TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO SHARPEN THIS
MORNING THEN MOVE INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS
HAVE COME INTO BETTER CONSENSUS REGARDING TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM...
AND ONLY DIFFER SLIGHTLY REGARDING STRENGTH. STRONG SOUTHWEST MID
LEVEL JET WAS INDUCING LOWERING PRESSURES ALONG THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES THIS MORNING...AND IN TURN WAS PRODUCING MOIST SOUTHEAST
FLOW ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA. STRATUS HAS FORMED
ACROSS AND ADVECTED INTO PARTS OF THE CWA AS OF 3 AM...AND SHOULD
COVER MOST OF OUR AREA BY SUNRISE. STRONG 50KT LOW LEVEL JET WAS
HELPING TO PRODUCE WEAK UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION ACROSS THE
CWA...BUT AS OF YET HAS FAILED TO PRODUCE DRIZZLE. VISIBILITIES
HAVE BEEN SLOWLY COMING DOWN...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL TAKE A
WHILE BEFORE POTENTIAL DRIZZLE FORMS. STILL IS A POSSIBILITY THIS
MORNING...SO WILL INCLUDE PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR MOST OF THE
AREA.
MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL THE AFTERNOON
WITH APPROACH OF MID LEVEL SYSTEM. SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS TODAY AND REACH NORTHWEST MISSOURI BY THIS
EVENING. INVERTED TROUGH/COLD FRONT SHOULD BE THROUGH THE CWA BY
THEN. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH/FRONT...DRY SLOT WILL LIKELY SQUELCH
PRECIPITATION FOR AT LEAST THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND COULD BRING A FEW
BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER SURFACE FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WILL
INVADE OUR WESTERN CWA EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...THEN REACH THE
MISSOURI RIVER BY 00Z. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL LAG THE COLD
FRONT...NEARER MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE...AND WILL FOCUS ON
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA BY LATE AFTERNOON AND SWEEPING THROUGH THE REST
OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA DURING THE EVENING. HAVE
INCREASED POPS IN OUR WESTERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON THEN ACROSS THE
REST OF OUR AREA THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURE PROFILES ON MODEL
SOUNDINGS AND PARTIAL THICKNESSES SUGGEST MAINLY A SNOW EVENT IN OUR
NORTHWEST CWA...GENERALLY WEST AND NORTH OF NORFOLK...WITH
NEAR-SURFACE WARM LAYER KEEPING A RAIN SNOW MIX POSSIBLE IN THE REST
OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON.
FOCUSED LIFT IN OUR NORTHWEST CWA LATE IN THE DAY COULD PRODUCE A
QUICK INCH OF SNOW THERE...THEN ANOTHER INCH DURING THE EARLY
EVENING AS SYSTEM SWINGS EAST. AREAS TO THE EAST AND SOUTH COULD SEE
AN INCH OF SNOW DURING THE EVENING AFTER LOW LAYERS COOL...BUT
MUCH ACCUMULATION BEFORE THE SUN GOES DOWN AND COLD AIR PLUNGES
SOUTHEAST WILL BE HARD TO COME BY.
COINCIDENT WITH SNOWFALL IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST WINDS OF
20 TO 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL OCCUR...AND COULD CAUSE A PERIOD
OF DRASTICALLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. DESPITE SNOW AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN 3 INCHES...
WILL ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PARTS OF NORTHEAST NEBRASKA
GENERALLY NORTH OF NORFOLK.
MOST OF THE SNOW SHOULD BE MOVING OUT OF OUR AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT...WITH WEST CENTRAL IOWA POTENTIALLY SEEING LINGERING SNOWS
THROUGH SUNRISE MONDAY. CLOUDS WILL BE CLEARING WEST TO EAST MONDAY
MORNING WITH WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AS PRESSURE GRADIENT
SLACKENS. WITH ANY NEW SNOWFALL AND LACK OF STRONG WARM
ADVECTION...EXPECT TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH FREEZING IN
THE NORTH AND EAST. THEN A QUICK COOL DOWN MONDAY EVENING WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPS IN THE NORTH TO DROP BELOW
ZERO OVER FRESH SNOW COVER.
A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS SOUTH WINDS KICK IN AHEAD OF
OUR NEXT SHORTWAVE SWINGING THROUGH THE PLAINS. FOCUS FOR
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE TO OUR SOUTH WHERE CORE OF
UPPER SYSTEM WILL BE...BUT MODELS ARE STILL KICKING OUT LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR AREA. SO SEE NO REASON TO REMOVE SMALL
CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND LOOKS DRY WITH TEMPERATURES AT
OR ABOVE NORMAL. UPPER FLOW IS GENERALLY ZONAL WITH RIPPLES OF
ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BRINGING SLIGHT
WARMING/COOLING AHEAD/BEHIND EACH WAVE.
DERGAN
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM CST
MONDAY FOR NEZ011-012-016>018-030>032-042.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
ZAPOTOCNY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1141 PM CST SAT JAN 21 2012
.AVIATION...
A WINTER STORM IS APPROACHING WESTERN NEBRASKA FROM THE WEST
TONIGHT. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS PRESENT WITH VISUAL FLIGHT RULES. SNOW
WILL BEGIN OVER THE NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
SPREAD EAST ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY WITH
MVFR CEILINGS AND LIFR VISIBILITIES IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW FROM
KIEN TO KVTN TO KONL AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM KAIA TO KLBF. STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PICK UP AFTER 2212Z AT 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO AROUND 50 MPH. STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED FROM KOGA TO KIML AND
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 945 PM CST SAT JAN 21 2012/
UPDATE...
UPDATED TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS. WINDS HAVE FALLEN OFF SOME
CLOUDS HAVE INCREASED AND TEMPERATURES ARE AT OR NEAR OVERNIGHT
LOW. LOWERED TEMPERATURES OVER NORTH CENTRAL ZONES WHERE
TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN THE MOST.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM CST SAT JAN 21 2012/
DISCUSSION...
THE RUC CONTINUES TO INDICATE WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
ACROSS NCNTL NEB THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD PEAK DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
THEN FALL OFF WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
SOUTH WINDS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS A STRONG PACIFIC COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE PLAINS. THIS FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE FCST AREA
SUNDAY MORNING AND LOW PRESSURE WILL CONSOLIDATE ACROSS THE
MIDWEST. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE SFC LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE. A BLEND OF MAV AND MET
GUIDANCE PRODUCED HIGH END WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS. DEUEL COUNTY
COULD PERHAPS REACH HIGH WIND CATEGORY BUT THAT IS LIKELY A RESULT
OF WEIGHTING FACTORS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DATA FROM KSNY. THE NAM
INDICATED GUSTS TO 55 MPH BUT ONLY ACROSS A SMALL PART OF CHERRY
COUNTY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY UP EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 SUNDAY
EVENING FOR A FEW HOURS AS WRAP AROUND STRATUS PRODUCES A SHALLOW
MIXED LAYER. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD DECLINE BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z AS THE
SFC LOW WILL PRESUMABLY BE FAR ENOUGH EAST FOR THE WINDS TO RELAX.
ELSEWHERE WINDS SHOULD DROP OFF QUICKLY AS A CLEARING LINE MOVES
EAST TO NEAR HIGHWAY 83 BY 00Z MONDAY.
A BLEND OF ECMWF...GEM REGIONAL...NAM AND GFS WAS USED FOR QPF
AMOUNTS WHICH ARE GENERALLY 1/10 OF INCH OR LESS. NOTE THE QPF IS
POST FRONTAL AND THE PTYPE IS SNOW. WITH THE H700MB LOW TRACKING
THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS...SNOW SHOWERS WOULD APPEAR TO BE THE
DOMINANT STORM MODE BUT WE MAY BE DEALING WITH A MIXED MODE AT TIMES.
THE NAM AND GFS ALSO KEEP THE FCST AREA MOSTLY DRY SO POPS ARE CHC
CATEGORY. HPC FAVORED THE GEM MODEL AND THE UKMET. THE ECMWF
APPEARED TO BE THE WETTER SOLN. THE GEM REGIONAL DEVELOPS A WEDGE
OF WARP AROUND QPF ACROSS THE ERN ZONES AMOUNTING TO 1/3 OF AN
INCH. GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS...SIGNIFICANT BLOWING SNOW WOULD
DEVELOP IF THAT WERE TO VERIFY.
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE FCST AREA MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY.
A SPLIT IN THE WESTERLIES DEVELOPS SENDING A LARGE UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF
LOW THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM
WILL HAVE LITTLE OR NO EFFECT ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS THE FCST
AREA EXCEPT TO HOLD PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. DEEP LOW PRESSURE
CIRCULATING THROUGH CNTL AND SRN CANADA WILL ALSO DRAW PACIFIC
HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE CNTL PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
BEFORE ANOTHER STRONG PACIFIC COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT OR FRIDAY.
THE FCST IS DRY MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THE GFS IS AMPLIFYING A
DISTURBANCE THRU THE FCST AREA SATURDAY BUT IT APPEARS TO BE TOO
FAST. THE ECMWF HOLDS THAT FEATURE OFFSHORE IN THE PACIFIC.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...WIND ADVISORY
FROM 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ TO 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/SUNDAY FOR
NEZ004-005-022>025-035>037-056>059-069>071-094.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM CST SUNDAY FOR NEZ006>010-
026>029-038.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/EXTENDED...POWER/CDC
AVIATION...POWER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
944 PM EST MON JAN 23 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH SOME
LIGHT RAIN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FROM LATE TUESDAY THROUGH MID
WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH EARLY ON
FRIDAY WHILE A MORE POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE
GULF COAST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. COLD AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 930 PM MONDAY...MAIN DILEMMA CONTINUES WITH THE FOG...ITS
OCCURRENCE AND INTENSITY. THE FSI INDEX...WITH 00Z RAOBS AND VARIOUS
SFC 00Z TEMPS/DEWPOINTS INPUTS FOR VARIOUS SPOTS ACROSS THE ILM CWA
INDICATE DENSE FOG A POSSIBILITY TONIGHT. THE WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE SLOWLY EASTWARD MOVING FRONT...MAY JUST BE
ENOUGH TO CURTAIL THE WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG. NEVERTHELESS...HAVE
UPDATED ZONES TO INCREASE FOG COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. WILL ISSUE AN
SPS TO HIGHLIGHT THE FOG WITH ISOLATED DENSE IN SOME LOCATIONS. THIS
BASICALLY IS 1 STEP SHY OF ISSUING A DENSE FOG ADV. AS MENTIONED
EARLIER HAVE INDICATED ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED SHRA FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT VIA LATEST 88D TRENDS...AND HRRR AND NAM
MODELS INPUT. MIN TEMPS OVERNIGHT TO MORE OR LESS HOLD STEADY WITH
CURRENT VALUES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...COLD FRONT CROSSING THE ILM CWA TUESDAY
CREATES THE ONLY PRECIP THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS THEREAFTER HIGH
PRESSURE AND UPPER RIDGING TAKE OVER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
SHORT TERM.
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY CROSSING THROUGH AL/TN APPROACHES THE COASTAL
CAROLINAS EARLY TUESDAY. A BAND OF PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES EAST...AND SHOWERS WILL OCCUR
FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY MORNING. SPC STILL HIGHLIGHTS THE CAPE
FEAR REGION IN A "SEE TEXT" IN SWODY1 (ENDING AT 7AM TUESDAY...BUT
LIKELY LINGERING INTO THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD)...BUT FEEL
SEVERE THREAT IS QUITE LIMITED. IN FACT...EXPECT PRIMARILY
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS WITH VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF TSTMS. ALTHOUGH
SOME SURFACE INSTABILITY DEVELOPS ALONG THE COAST COINCIDENT WITH
SOME ENHANCED THETA-E AIR...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MOST
UNSTABLE AIR WILL BE ELEVATED...ABOVE 850-900MB. ADDITIONALLY...LOW
LEVEL JET MAX PASSES NORTH OF THE ILM CWA...LEAVING ONLY 30-35 KTS
OF WIND ALOFT...AND OMEGA IS RATHER MINIMAL. STILL...IF ANY
ENHANCED LIFT CAN BREAK THE WEAK INVERSION PRESENT AROUND
950MB...PARCELS COULD ACCELERATE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME THUNDER.
WILL KEEP ONLY SHOWERS AS WX TYPE HOWEVER. SREF 3-HR PROBS PEAK
ONLY AT 50-70% FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP FROM 7AM-10AM SO WILL CAP POP
AT CHANCE ACROSS PENDER/NH/BRUNSWICK COUNTIES...WITH SCHC EAST OF
I-95. ALL PRECIP MOVES OFFSHORE BY LATE MORNING.
COLD FRONT LAGS BEHIND...WITH WINDS BECOMING NW BY LATE AFTN AND
SKY CONDITIONS CLEARING AS COLUMN DRIES. CAA DOESN`T OCCUR UNTIL
LATE TUESDAY...SO WITH UPPER RIDGING DEVELOPING...SOME DOWNSLOPE
COMPONENT TO THE WINDS...AND 850MB TEMPS AROUND 11C...EXPECT TEMPS
TO SOAR TO AROUND 70 TUESDAY AFTN. WEAK CAA TUESDAY NIGHT THEN
DROPS TEMPS TO THE LOWER 40S. WEAK WAA ALOFT RETURNS WEDNESDAY BUT
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN FROM THE NORTH CREATES COOLER NE FLOW.
EXPECT A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 60S. RETURN
FLOW SETS UP LATE WEDNESDAY CAUSING INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND MINS
A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...1200 UTC OPERATIONAL GFS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH HPC GRAPHICS WHICH CONSIST MOSTLY OF A BLEND OF THE ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MEAN AND THE OPERATIONAL MODEL. HAVE FOLLOWED THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED GFS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD. THE
MAIN SYSTEM IS THE CUTOFF LOW MOVING ACROSS THE GULF COAST
THURSDAY AND GETTING EJECTED FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. AT THE
SURFACE A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY WITH THE
MAIN SURFACE LOW MOVING INLAND FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. HAVE
HIGHLIGHTED THE HIGHEST POPS FOR 1200-1800 UTC FRIDAY WITH SHOWERS
THE MAIN NATURE OF THE RAINFALL. LIGHTNING LOOKS UNLIKELY AT THIS
POINT AS THERE IS NO CAPE ABOVE THE FREEZING LEVEL ON SOUNDINGS. A
BIT PREMATURE TO BE TALKING ABOUT QPF BUT THE GFS DOES PAINT
ALMOST THREE INCHES OF STORM TOTAL RAINFALL ACROSS MOST AREAS BY
0600 UTC SATURDAY SO AT LEAST THE CHANCE IS THERE FOR A
SIGNIFICANT EVENT. FINALLY ARCTIC FRONT MOVES ACROSS LATE SATURDAY
WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES PLUNGING BRIEFLY BELOW ZERO DEGREES C.
MONDAY MORNING LOOKS THE COLDEST HOWEVER WITH BETTER RADIATIONAL
COOLING.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...TRICKY FORECAST FOR THE VALID TAF PERIOD AS WARM FRONT
CONTINUES TO SHIFT NORTHWARD AND COLD FRONT PUSHES TOWARDS THE
REGION. CURRENT 11-3.9U DEPICTS GENERALLY LOW CLOUD COVER ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH SEVERAL LOCATIONS EXPERIENCING CIGS AROUND
300-500FT AS WELL AS MVFR/IFR FOG. GIVEN CURRENT CONDITIONS AND
CONSIDERING CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE...HAVE OPTED TO CONTINUE FOG AT
ALL SITES THROUGH TUESDAY LATE MORNING. ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD
IFR...THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT PERIODS OF CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO
LIFR...ESPECIALLY AT KCRE...AND ALSO PERIODS OF MVFR AS WELL. TIMING
OF THIS ACTIVITY IS UNCERTAIN ATTM. WITH APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...EXPECT PERIODS OF -RA ACROSS THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT.
AGAIN...GIVEN UNCERTAINTY OF EXACT TIMING...HAVE OPTED TO STICK WITH
VCSH AND RE-EVALUATE AS SYSTEM MOVES CLOSER. BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...CONDITIONS WILL BECOME VFR AND PERSIST THROUGH THE END
OF THE PERIOD.
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTH-WEST AND
THEN MAINLY WEST BY THE END OF THE VALID PERIOD. EXPECT SUSTAINED
WINDS TO BE AOB 10KTS...SLIGHTLY DECREASING BY TUESDAY EVENING.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...LOW CONFIDENCE IFR WEDNESDAY. GOOD CHANCE OF
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS/TEMPO IFR FRIDAY. VFR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 PM MONDAY...HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE SLOWLY VEERING SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AT 10 TO 15 KT OVERNIGHT. THE 15 KT SPEEDS WILL
OCCUR ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE SSTS ARE IN
THE LOWER 60S. SSTS IN THE 50S NEAR SHORE WILL LIMIT MIXING FROM
ALOFT...AND THUS HOLDING WIND SPEEDS IN THE 10 TO OCCASIONALLY 15
KT. FORECASTING SEA FOG WITH LOW TO MID 60S SFC DEW POINTS
ADVECTING ACROSS THE WATERS THIS TIME OF THE YEAR IS USUALLY A
NO-BRAINER. BUT THIS YEAR...SSTS ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING A GOOD 4 TO 6
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ILM COASTAL WATERS. FOR
NOW...HAVE INDICATED PATCHY SEA FOG REDUCING VSBY TO 1 NM OR LESS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT. SEAS TO RUN IN THE 2 TO 4 FT
RANGE OVERNIGHT...WITH WATERS BEYOND 20 NM OFF CAPE FEAR SEEING 5
FOOTERS DUE TO THE HIGHER WINDS OVER THE MILDER OFFSHORE WATERS. 1
TO OCCASIONALLY 2 FOOT 9-11 SECOND EASTERLY SWELL TO MIX WITH
LOCALLY PRODUCED WIND WAVES OF 2 TO 3 FEET AT 4 TO 6 SECOND PERIODS.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE WATERS TUESDAY
CREATES A TIGHTENED GRADIENT AND SW WINDS OF 10-15 KTS DURING THE
MORNING. OTHER THAN A FEW SHOWERS TUESDAY MORNING...COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE WATERS WITH LITTLE FANFARE OTHER THAN A WIND SHIFT TO THE
WEST BY EVENING...AND NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT. SEAS OF 3-4 FT INITIALLY
WILL SLOWLY FALL TO 2-3 FT BY NIGHTFALL. EVEN WITH LOW AMPLITUDE
WAVE HEIGHTS...SOME CONFUSED SEAS ARE LIKELY TUESDAY WITH SW WIND
WAVES OVERLAYING A RESIDUAL WEAK NE SWELL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
WATERS NORTH OF CAPE FEAR. NW WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS WILL INCREASE
AGAIN TO 15 KTS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY DUE TO A COOL SURGE
OVER THE WATERS. THIS WILL PICK SEAS BACK UP TO 3-4 FT FOR A SHORT
TIME...BEFORE FALLING ONCE AGAIN LATE WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN LATER THURSDAY ACROSS
ALL WATERS AND INCREASE IN MAGNITUDE EARLY FRIDAY AS A DECENT STORM
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. WARM ADVECTION OVER THE COLDER WATERS
WILL LIMIT TRANSFER OF STRONGER WINDS TO THE SURFACE KEEPING VALUES
JUST BELOW THE SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA OF 25 KNOTS FOR THE MOST PART. I
DO HAVE A BRIEF WINDOW OF 25 PLUS KNOTS EARLY SATURDAY AS THE LOW
LEVEL JET MAX MOVES ACROSS. NORTHERLY FLOW SETS UP ACROSS ALL WATERS
BY 1200 UTC SATURDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OFF RAPIDLY TO THE
NORTHEAST. SEAS WILL INCREASE FROM 2-3 FEET THURSDAY TO 5-8 FEET
LATER FRIDAY BEFORE GETTING WORKED OVER BY THE OFFSHORE FLOW
SATURDAY.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...DOUGH
SHORT TERM...JOSHUAW
LONG TERM...STEPHENK
AVIATION...SANDYL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1237 PM EST SUN JAN 22 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
COOL AND MOIST CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
WEDGES IN FROM THE NORTH. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW LATE TUESDAY THROUGH
MID WEEK. ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE THURSDAY
WHILE A MORE POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE GULF COAST
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1200 PM SUNDAY...NO MAJOR CHANGES OTHER THAN TO CONTINUE TO
ADJUST TEMPS DOWNWARD TODAY. ALWAYS TRICKY TO DETERMINE JUST HOW
WARM IT WILL GET IN THESE WEDGE SCENARIOS...AND THIS CASE IS NO
DIFFERENT. EXPECT MAX TEMPS THIS AFTN TO REMAIN BELOW 45 ACROSS MOST
OF THE REGION...WITH SOME UPPER 40S ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW:
AS OF 930 AM SUNDAY...COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED AS FAR SOUTH AS THE
GA/FL STATE LINE...AND HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO WEDGE DOWN THROUGH
THE MID ATLANTIC AND INTO THE CAROLINAS. WIDESPREAD OVERCAST LOW
CLOUDINESS AND DRIZZLE ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WILL
CONTINUE...AND POSSIBLY EXPAND IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON. TIME
HEIGHTS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT FULL SATURATION BENEATH THE
FRONTAL INVERSION...WHICH IS BEING WRUNG OUT BY ANY WEAK IMPULSES
THAT PUSH THROUGH IN THE MID LEVELS. ADDITIONALLY...ISENTROPIC
ANALYSIS REVEALS ONLY WEAK LIFT ON THE 290K SURFACE...BUT IN A FULLY
SATURATED ENVIRONMENT THIS IS ENOUGH TO PRODUCE DRIZZLE. HAVE KEPT
POP SILENT SINCE IT IS DOUBTFUL ANY PLACES WILL MEASURE MORE THAN A
TRACE...BUT A FEW SPOTS MAY MEASURE 0.01 INCHES.
LATEST MSAS ANALYSIS HAS THE WEDGE STRENGTHENING...AND HRRR 3-HR
PRESSURE TENDENCIES CONTINUE TO RISE. THIS INCREASING
PRESSURE...STRENGTHENING WEDGE...WILL KEEP THE AREA LOCKED IN WITH
LOW CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE THROUGH TONIGHT. BECAUSE OF THIS...DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE SWINGS WILL BE QUITE MINIMAL...AND HAVE BUMPED MAX TEMPS
DOWN A BIT BASED OFF CURRENT OBS. EXPECT HIGHS ONLY INTO THE LOWER
40S WELL NW...TO THE UPPER 40S MOST OF THE AREA. A FEW 50 DEGREE
READINGS MAY BE REACHED ALONG THE SOUTH COAST.
WEDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN TONIGHT AS WINDS BECOME MORE
EASTERLY...AND WAA ALOFT BEGINS. CONTINUED ATYPICAL DIURNAL CURVE
TONIGHT...WITH MINS LIKELY BE REACHED BEFORE MIDNIGHT...AND THEN
RISING TOWARDS DAYBREAK MONDAY. AGAIN...VERY LITTLE SWING IN TEMPS
WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 40S BY MIDNIGHT...RISING TO THE MID/UPPER
40S BY 7AM MONDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...WITH PROGRESSIVE NATURE TO THE FLOW...THE
SHALLOW COLD WEDGE SHOULD BREAK MONDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE UPPER MID WEST DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
TOWARD THE AREA. WINDS WILL COME AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THEN
SOUTH THROUGH MON IN A DEEPER RETURN FLOW. THIS WILL DRIVE TEMPS
BACK UP INTO THE 60S CLOSE TO 70 MON AFTN. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS
AS TO HOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS AND PCP WILL EXIST THROUGH
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. SHOULD BE SOME LIFT EARLIER ON MONDAY AS WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND THEN AGAIN AHEAD AND ALONG COLD FRONT AS IT
MOVES INTO AREA. LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW FRONT LACKING MOISTURE AS IT
MOVES INTO AREA LATE MONDAY BUT IT MAY LINGER ACROSS OR JUST SOUTH
OF AREA AS MID TO UPPER RIDGE BUILDS UP FROM THE GULF INTO MID
WEEK. THEREFORE MAY BE CLOUDS AND SLIM CHC OF PCP LINGERING INTO
TUES AND MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL STREAM INTO AREA IN WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT AS ANOTHER SYSTEM DEVELOPS ALONG WESTERN GULF COAST. AFTER
WAA ON MONDAY...850 TEMPS LEVEL OFF THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. MAY SEE A SHALLOW COOL POOL OF AIR MOVE IN FINALLY LATE
TUES INTO EARLY WED BUT OVERALL EXPECT TEMPS TO MAKE IT INTO THE
60S ON TUES AGAIN.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...MID TO UPPER RIDGE WILL SLIP OFF THE COAST
WITH A DEEP SW FLOW SETTING UP WED THROUGH FRI AS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES EAST THROUGH THE GULF COAST STATES INTO THE
SOUTHEAST. LIGHT NORTHERLY SFC WINDS BEHIND COLD FRONT EARLY WED WILL
SHIFT AROUND ONCE AGAIN AS RETURN FLOW SETS UP LATE WED. THIS WILL
PROVIDE DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE WITH PCP WATER VALUES REMAINING
ABOVE AN INCH THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. MOST OF THIS MOISTURE
WILL BE IN THE WAY OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING INTO THE
AREA UNTIL THURS NIGHT WHEN ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAKES IT WAY DOWN
FROM THE NORTH. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH BUT WILL NOT MAKE IT
MUCH FARTHER THAN LOCAL AREA BEFORE STORM SYSTEM MOVES EAST FROM
THE GULF PUSHING THIS BOUNDARY BACK NORTH. THE BEST CHC OF PCP
WILL COME FRI INTO SAT AS SHORTWAVE DRIVES THIS SYSTEM INTO AND
THROUGH THE CAROLINAS FROM THE WEST SOUTHWEST. COLD AND DRY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN BEHIND COLD FRONT LATE SAT INTO SUN. TEMPS
WILL REMAIN ABOVE 60 FOR HIGHS UNTIL FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON SAT
ALLOWING COLDER AIR TO MAKE ITS WAY IN FOR LATE SAT INTO SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...WIDESPREAD IFR LEVEL CEILINGS ARE CONTINUING EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...EXCEPT AT CRE WHERE CEILINGS HAVE LIFTED TO BORDERLINE
MVFR. AREAS OF FOG ARE DECREASING...WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES AT ILM
EXPECTED TO BECOME VFR SHORTLY.
CONFIDENCE HAS LOWERED BUT STILL EXPECT IFR CEILINGS TO LIFT AT
TIMES TO LOW MVFR LEVELS AROUND 1K THIS AFTERNOON. NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS 5-8 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS WILL BE TEMPORARY AS
THE SURFACE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO RETREAT BACK TO THE NORTH LATER
TODAY. AS IT DOES THE FRONTAL INVERSION IS EXPECTED TO LOWER. WITH
COPIOUS MOISTURE TRAPPED AT THE INVERSION LEVEL CONFIDENCE IS
MODERATE TO HIGH THAT CEILINGS WILL DROP BACK TO IFR LEVELS BY THIS
EVENING. CEILINGS WILL LIKELY DROP TO CAT B CEILINGS AROUND
MIDNIGHT.
AS WINDS BECOME EAST TO SOUTHEAST MONDAY MORNING CONFIDENCE IS
MODERATE TO HIGH VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AS CEILINGS LIFT
TO MVFR LEVELS BY MID-MORNING. COULD BE SOME LIGHT RAIN NEAR THE
FLO/LBT TERMINALS BY MID-MORNING
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR TO DEVELOP MONDAY LATE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AS A WARM FRONT WORKS NORTH. LOW CONFIDENCE FOR MORNING
FOG WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNINGS. CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TEMPO IFR
FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1200 PM SUNDAY...HAVE EXPIRED SCEC FOR NORTHERN WATERS DUE TO
RELAXING OF WINDS AND SEAS. FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH SEAS
DROPPING TO 3-4 FT THROUGH TONIGHT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW:
AS OF 930 AM SUNDAY...SCEC CONTINUES FOR AMZ250 AND AMZ252 WITH THE
BUOYS REPORTING WINDS STILL GUSTING TO 25 KTS ON NE SURGE. SEAS ARE
MOSTLY 3-4 FT...BUT WITH FRYING PAN REPORTING 6 FT...EXPECT WAVE
HEIGHTS NEAR THE 20 NM BOUNDARY ARE CRESTING AT 5 FT IF NOT SLIGHTLY
HIGHER...WITH A SHORT PERIOD NE WIND WAVE CONTROLLING THE SPECTRUM.
STILL EXPECT TO DROP THE SCEC AROUND NOON...BUT IF WEDGE CONTINUES
TO STRENGTHEN THIS COULD KEEP WINDS AND SEAS ELEVATED..AND PROMPT AN
EXTENSION. ATTM EXPECT WINDS TO EASE TO 10-15 KTS THIS AFTN AND
TONIGHT...PRODUCING NE WIND WAVES OF 3-4 FT.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
THEN SOUTH IN AN INCREASING RETURN FLOW ONCE AGAIN MON. WIND WILL
REACH 15 TO 20 KTS LATE MON. THIS WILL PUSH SEAS UP AGAIN INTO THE 3
TO 5 FT RANGE BUT LATEST WNA RUNS KEEP SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS
FOR MON NIGHT AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH. COLD
FRONT MAY BE SLOWER TO MOVE THROUGH WITH LONGER PERIOD OF SW TO W
WINDS BEFORE FINALLY VEERING AROUND LATE TUES. SEAS WILL DECREASE BY
LATE TUES INTO TUES NIGHT AS FRONT MOVES SOUTH WITH DIMINISHING
NORTHERLY FLOW.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...WINDS WILL VEER AROUND FROM THE NORTHEAST TO
EAST AND EVENTUALLY SOUTH WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS FRONT PUSHES
BACK NORTH AND STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE GULF COAST. SEAS
DOWN TO LESS THAN 3 FT WEDNESDAY WILL INCREASE AGAIN AS SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW INCREASES UP TO 15 TO 20 KTS ONCE AGAIN LATE THURS. THIS
WILL DRIVE SEAS BACK UP TO 3 TO 5 FT THURSDAY INTO FRI.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...WEISS
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...MRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
951 AM EST SUN JAN 22 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
COOL AND MOIST CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
WEDGES IN FROM THE NORTH. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW LATE TUESDAY THROUGH
MID WEEK. ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE THURSDAY
WHILE A MORE POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE GULF COAST
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM SUNDAY...COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED AS FAR SOUTH AS THE
GA/FL STATE LINE...AND HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO WEDGE DOWN THROUGH
THE MID ATLANTIC AND INTO THE CAROLINAS. WIDESPREAD OVERCAST LOW
CLOUDINESS AND DRIZZLE ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WILL
CONTINUE...AND POSSIBLY EXPAND IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON. TIME
HEIGHTS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT FULL SATURATION BENEATH THE
FRONTAL INVERSION...WHICH IS BEING WRUNG OUT BY ANY WEAK IMPULSES
THAT PUSH THROUGH IN THE MID LEVELS. ADDITIONALLY...ISENTROPIC
ANALYSIS REVEALS ONLY WEAK LIFT ON THE 290K SURFACE...BUT IN A FULLY
SATURATED ENVIRONMENT THIS IS ENOUGH TO PRODUCE DRIZZLE. HAVE KEPT
POP SILENT SINCE IT IS DOUBTFUL ANY PLACES WILL MEASURE MORE THAN A
TRACE...BUT A FEW SPOTS MAY MEASURE 0.01 INCHES.
LATEST MSAS ANALYSIS HAS THE WEDGE STRENGTHENING...AND HRRR 3-HR
PRESSURE TENDENCIES CONTINUE TO RISE. THIS INCREASING
PRESSURE...STRENGTHENING WEDGE...WILL KEEP THE AREA LOCKED IN WITH
LOW CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE THROUGH TONIGHT. BECAUSE OF THIS...DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE SWINGS WILL BE QUITE MINIMAL...AND HAVE BUMPED MAX TEMPS
DOWN A BIT BASED OFF CURRENT OBS. EXPECT HIGHS ONLY INTO THE LOWER
40S WELL NW...TO THE UPPER 40S MOST OF THE AREA. A FEW 50 DEGREE
READINGS MAY BE REACHED ALONG THE SOUTH COAST.
WEDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN TONIGHT AS WINDS BECOME MORE
EASTERLY...AND WAA ALOFT BEGINS. CONTINUED ATYPICAL DIURNAL CURVE
TONIGHT...WITH MINS LIKELY BE REACHED BEFORE MIDNIGHT...AND THEN
RISING TOWARDS DAYBREAK MONDAY. AGAIN...VERY LITTLE SWING IN TEMPS
WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 40S BY MIDNIGHT...RISING TO THE MID/UPPER
40S BY 7AM MONDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...WITH PROGRESSIVE NATURE TO THE FLOW...THE
SHALLOW COLD WEDGE SHOULD BREAK MONDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE UPPER MID WEST DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
TOWARD THE AREA. WINDS WILL COME AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THEN
SOUTH THROUGH MON IN A DEEPER RETURN FLOW. THIS WILL DRIVE TEMPS
BACK UP INTO THE 60S CLOSE TO 70 MON AFTN. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS
AS TO HOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS AND PCP WILL EXIST THROUGH
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. SHOULD BE SOME LIFT EARLIER ON MONDAY AS WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND THEN AGAIN AHEAD AND ALONG COLD FRONT AS IT
MOVES INTO AREA. LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW FRONT LACKING MOISTURE AS IT
MOVES INTO AREA LATE MONDAY BUT IT MAY LINGER ACROSS OR JUST SOUTH
OF AREA AS MID TO UPPER RIDGE BUILDS UP FROM THE GULF INTO MID
WEEK. THEREFORE MAY BE CLOUDS AND SLIM CHC OF PCP LINGERING INTO
TUES AND MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL STREAM INTO AREA IN WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT AS ANOTHER SYSTEM DEVELOPS ALONG WESTERN GULF COAST. AFTER
WAA ON MONDAY...850 TEMPS LEVEL OFF THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. MAY SEE A SHALLOW COOL POOL OF AIR MOVE IN FINALLY LATE
TUES INTO EARLY WED BUT OVERALL EXPECT TEMPS TO MAKE IT INTO THE
60S ON TUES AGAIN.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...MID TO UPPER RIDGE WILL SLIP OFF THE COAST
WITH A DEEP SW FLOW SETTING UP WED THROUGH FRI AS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES EAST THROUGH THE GULF COAST STATES INTO THE
SOUTHEAST. LIGHT NORTHERLY SFC WINDS BEHIND COLD FRONT EARLY WED WILL
SHIFT AROUND ONCE AGAIN AS RETURN FLOW SETS UP LATE WED. THIS WILL
PROVIDE DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE WITH PCP WATER VALUES REMAINING
ABOVE AN INCH THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. MOST OF THIS MOISTURE
WILL BE IN THE WAY OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING INTO THE
AREA UNTIL THURS NIGHT WHEN ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAKES IT WAY DOWN
FROM THE NORTH. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH BUT WILL NOT MAKE IT
MUCH FARTHER THAN LOCAL AREA BEFORE STORM SYSTEM MOVES EAST FROM
THE GULF PUSHING THIS BOUNDARY BACK NORTH. THE BEST CHC OF PCP
WILL COME FRI INTO SAT AS SHORTWAVE DRIVES THIS SYSTEM INTO AND
THROUGH THE CAROLINAS FROM THE WEST SOUTHWEST. COLD AND DRY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN BEHIND COLD FRONT LATE SAT INTO SUN. TEMPS
WILL REMAIN ABOVE 60 FOR HIGHS UNTIL FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON SAT
ALLOWING COLDER AIR TO MAKE ITS WAY IN FOR LATE SAT INTO SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...WIDESPREAD LOW CEILINGS ARE OCCURRING THIS MORNING.
LOWEST CEILINGS OF 300-600 FEET ARE OCCURRING AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS...WITH CEILINGS 600-900 FEET AT THE INLAND TERMINALS.
PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG ARE RESULTING IN MVFR VISIBILITIES.
EXPECT THE SURFACE HIGH TO FURTHER BUILD INTO THE TERMINALS EARLY
TODAY. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT CEILINGS WILL LIFT TO MVFR LEVELS
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING IS
LOW. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE DAY.
AS THE SURFACE HIGH RETREATS BACK TO THE NORTH LATER TODAY THE
FRONTAL INVERSION WILL LOWER. WITH COPIOUS MOISTURE TRAPPED AT THE
INVERSION LEVEL CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO HIGH THAT CEILINGS WILL
DROP BACK TO IFR LEVELS THIS EVENING...WITH LIFR CEILINGS/MVFR
VISIBILITIES DEVELOPING AROUND MIDNIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS LOW...BUT
IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES COULD APPROACH
TERMINAL MINIMUMS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR TO DEVELOP MONDAY LATE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AS A WARM FRONT WORKS NORTH. LOW CONFIDENCE FOR MORNING
FOG WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNINGS.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM SUNDAY...SCEC CONTINUES FOR AMZ250 AND AMZ252 WITH THE
BUOYS REPORTING WINDS STILL GUSTING TO 25 KTS ON NE SURGE. SEAS ARE
MOSTLY 3-4 FT...BUT WITH FRYING PAN REPORTING 6 FT...EXPECT WAVE
HEIGHTS NEAR THE 20 NM BOUNDARY ARE CRESTING AT 5 FT IF NOT SLIGHTLY
HIGHER...WITH A SHORT PERIOD NE WIND WAVE CONTROLLING THE SPECTRUM.
STILL EXPECT TO DROP THE SCEC AROUND NOON...BUT IF WEDGE CONTINUES
TO STRENGTHEN THIS COULD KEEP WINDS AND SEAS ELEVATED..AND PROMPT AN
EXTENSION. ATTM EXPECT WINDS TO EASE TO 10-15 KTS THIS AFTN AND
TONIGHT...PRODUCING NE WIND WAVES OF 3-4 FT.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
THEN SOUTH IN AN INCREASING RETURN FLOW ONCE AGAIN MON. WIND WILL
REACH 15 TO 20 KTS LATE MON. THIS WILL PUSH SEAS UP AGAIN INTO THE 3
TO 5 FT RANGE BUT LATEST WNA RUNS KEEP SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS
FOR MON NIGHT AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH. COLD
FRONT MAY BE SLOWER TO MOVE THROUGH WITH LONGER PERIOD OF SW TO W
WINDS BEFORE FINALLY VEERING AROUND LATE TUES. SEAS WILL DECREASE BY
LATE TUES INTO TUES NIGHT AS FRONT MOVES SOUTH WITH DIMINISHING
NORTHERLY FLOW.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...WINDS WILL VEER AROUND FROM THE NORTHEAST TO
EAST AND EVENTUALLY SOUTH WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS FRONT PUSHES
BACK NORTH AND STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE GULF COAST. SEAS
DOWN TO LESS THAN 3 FT WEDNESDAY WILL INCREASE AGAIN AS SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW INCREASES UP TO 15 TO 20 KTS ONCE AGAIN LATE THURS. THIS
WILL DRIVE SEAS BACK UP TO 3 TO 5 FT THURSDAY INTO FRI.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...WEISS
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...MRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1250 AM EST SUN JAN 22 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. COOL AND MOIST
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WEDGES IN FROM THE
NORTH. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY. A COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
FOLLOW TUESDAY THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1250 AM SUNDAY...PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WORKS SOUTH. THE FRONTAL
INVERSION WILL RESULT IN A STRATUS DECK BELOW 1000 FEET INTO EARLY
SUNDAY. N-NE SFC WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS OF
20 MPH. THIS LOW LEVEL MIXING WILL KEEP ANY FOG FROM BECOMING
WIDESPREAD THOUGH DRIZZLE AND MIST CAN BE ANTICIPATED. TEMPS WILL
DROP INTO THE 40S AREA WIDE BY DAYBREAK.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 2:30 PM SATURDAY...COOL...CLOUDY AND MOIST DAY IN STORE FOR
SUNDAY AS A SHORT-LIVED COLD AIR DAMMING SITUATION SETS UP. STEADY
NE FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR SO EITHER SIDE OF 50 MOST
LOCATIONS. AS IS TYPICAL FOR THIS TYPE OF PATTERN...EXPECT PATCHY
DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN TO MAKE APPEARANCES AT TIMES...WITH MINIMAL
QPF DUE TO WEAK FORCING AND SHALLOW NATURE OF MOISTURE. THERE WILL
BE A LIMITED DIURNAL RANGE OF TEMPERATURES...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN
THE 40S OVERNIGHT.
WEDGE PATTERN WILL ERODE EARLY ON MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH APPROACH FROM THE WEST. FLOW WILL TURN TO
THE SOUTH AND THEN SW MONDAY AFTERNOON...ALLOWING FOR A BIG WARM
UP FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND
70...ABOUT 20 DEGREES HIGHER THAN ON SUNDAY. FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS MONDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AND WILL
BE OFFSHORE BY AROUND DAYBREAK ON TUESDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM AND BEST UPPER SUPPORT WILL PASS WELL TO
THE NORTH...SO EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION TO
ACCOMPANY FROPA. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF COLD ADVECTION WITH THIS
FRONT...SO EXPECT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S INLAND TO
AROUND 50 AT THE COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 2:30 PM SATURDAY...MAIN FEATURE FOR THE EXTENDED CONTINUES
TO BE THE CUTOFF MEANDERING ABOUT THE SOUTHWEST AND WHEN IT GETS
KICKED OUT. THE LATEST OPERATIONAL RUN OF THE GFS HAS TRENDED MUCH
SLOWER WHILE PREVIOUS RUNS MAINTAINED MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW. HPC
CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE ECMWF SUITE OF PRODUCTS BASED ON MORE
CONSISTENCY. THESE ARE A BIT SLOWER WITH THE SYSTEM BUT OVERALL
ARE SIMILAR TO THIS TIME YESTERDAY. THE ONLY FORECAST CHANGES WITH
THIS PACKAGE WERE TO DELAY THE POPS SLIGHTLY MAINTAINING THE SAME
STRATEGY AS YESTERDAY WITH INCREASING VALUES FROM LATE THURSDAY
THROUGH THE NEW DAY SATURDAY. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURES
WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE ACROSS THE BOARD TO MATCH HPC NUMBERS AND
ADJACENT OFFICES.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...POST FRONTAL IFR STRATUS EXPECTED MAJORITY OF THE 6Z TAF
CYCLE. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR VISIBILITIES INTO THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS THIS MORNING. ALONG LEADING EDGE OF THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION EXPECT GUSTY N UP TO 18 KNOTS. TRANSITIONED TO MVFR CIGS
AROUND 18Z BUT LOWERING TO IFR AFTER NIGHTFALL IN MOIST NE FLOW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...IFR WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. VFR TO
DEVELOP MONDAY LATE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS A WARM FRONT
WORKS NORTH. LOW CONFIDENCE FOR MORNING FOG WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
MORNINGS.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 PM SATURDAY...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION IS IN EFFECT.
THE COLD FRONT LIES JUST ON THE NORTHERN DOORSTEPS OF THE ILM CWA
PER LATEST MSAS. HRRR HOURLY WIND FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE TO OCCUR BETWEEN 10 PM TONIGHT AND 3 AM SUNDAY.
SFC WINDS AHEAD OF THE CF...HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO VEER FROM SW TO W
FROM CAPE FEAR NORTHWARD. DURING THE TRANSITIONING PHASE DURING THE
COLD FRONTS PASSAGE...SPEEDS COULD DROP TO 10-15 KT. SFC PG TO
TIGHTEN QUICKLY AFTER THE CFP...AND WILL RESULT IN 15 TO 20 KT
SPEEDS WITH A FEW GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. THE SCEC MAY NEED TO BE
EXPANDED INTO SUNDAY DAYLIGHT HRS IF THE SFC PG REMAINS TIGHTENED
FROM THE 1030+ HIGH RIDGING SOUTHWARD. THREE TO 5 FT WIND DRIVEN
WAVES WILL DOMINATE THE SIGNIFICANT SEAS ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS...WITH PERIODS AVERAGING 5 TO 7 SECONDS. CAN NOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED 6 FOOTER ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS VICINITY OF FRYING PAN
SHOALS BUT NOT ENOUGH OCCURRENCE TO PLACE 6 FOOTERS IN SIG SEAS.
SEAS WILL BE ADVERTIZED IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE THRUOUT OVERNIGHT. WITH
A DIFFERENT FETCH DIRECTION AND LENGTH AFTER FROPA...SEA HEIGHTS
WILL NEED TO BE ADJUSTED. PATCHY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE WILL DOMINATE
THE PCPN THREAT OVERNIGHT. LOW STRATUS CLOUD DECK MAY LIMIT VSBYS TO
WHERE GPS AND DEPTH FINDERS ARE UTILIZED FOR THE NEAR SHORE WATERS
AND THE INTRA-COASTAL WATERWAY.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 2:30 PM SATURDAY...NELY FLOW OVER THE WATERS ON SUNDAY WILL
TURN SWLY ON MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 15 TO 20 KTS EARLY ON SUNDAY BEFORE BECOMING
LIGHT AND VEERING TO THE SE OVERNIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON BACK IN THE
15 TO 20 KT RANGE FROM THE SW. COLD FRONT MAY MOVE OFFSHORE BY
AROUND DAYBREAK ON TUESDAY. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 3 TO 5 FT FOR
MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 2:30 PM SATURDAY...WESTERLY FLOW INITIALLY IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT. A SECONDARY PUSH OCCURS LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
WHICH WILL TURN WINDS TO THE NORTHEAST. FINALLY RETURN FLOW SETS UP
THURSDAY AS A SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST. OVERALL WIND
SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN MODEST WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF LATE INT
HE PERIOD WHEN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW SURGES. SEAS WILL REFLECT THE
MODEST WINDS WITH AROUND TWO FEET FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
INCREASING SLIGHTLY THURSDAY.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...DOUG/MICHAELJAY
SHORT TERM...RICHARD
LONG TERM...STEPHEN
AVIATION...MICHAELJAY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
734 PM CST MON JAN 23 2012
.DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS AND TEMPS WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUES TO DEAL WITH OVERNIGHT.
KHCO/KGFK ARE ON THE VERGE OF CLEARING NOW AND KFAR SHOULD CLEAR
IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. SFC HIGH AND LIGHTEST WINDS ARE SITTING
OVER THE LANGDON TO KDVL AREA RIGHT NOW WHERE IT HAS BEEN CLEAR
SINCE SUNSET...SO THEY HAVE DROPPED TO ZERO PRETTY QUICKLY. THERE
ARE UPSTREAM MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING IN FROM THE WEST
SO TEMPS SHOULD STEADY THEN RISE IN THE WEST LATE. THEREFORE
EXPECT LOWS IN THE WEST TO OCCUR PROBABLY BY MIDNIGHT AND THEN
RISE AFTER. THE VALLEY SHOULD BEGIN TO FALL AFTER CLEARING IN THE
NEXT COUPLE HOURS. THE CLOUDS SHOULD STABILIZE TEMPS HERE TOO
LATE. THE EAST MAY STAY CLOUDY FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT AND HAVE JUST
A STEADY SLOW FALL.
&&
.AVIATION...
STAYED WITH THE IDEA OF SLOW CLEARING TONIGHT. KGFK/KFAR SHOULD
CLEAR IN THE NEXT HOUR. KTVF COULD BE SEVERAL HOURS AFTER THIS AND
KBJI MAY TAKE QUITE A WHILE YET...DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THE
CLEARING CONTINUES. ALWAYS HARD TO SAY AT NIGHT WHEN WINDS ARE
DYING OFF. WILL MONITOR AND ADJUST TAFS AS NEEDED.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 236 PM CST MON JAN 23 2012/
SHORT TERM... /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
THE FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM WILL BE
TEMPERATURES AND SKY COVER...ESPECIALLY CHALLENGING OVER EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. THE CURRENT VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWING THE DVL LAKE
BASIN IS CLEARING OUT AND WORKING ITS WAY DOWN THE SHEYENNE RIVER
BASIN. QUESTION IS HOW MUCH CONTRIBUTION HIGHER WINDS WILL MAKE
PRIOR TO SUNSET AS WINDS LIGHTEN UP. THE CURRENT NAM AND RUC H900
RH VALUES HAVE AN OKAY HANDLE ON THE CLEARING...BUT COULD BE
BETTER. THUS...QUESTION IS WHEN WILL THINGS CLEAR OUT AND HOW MUCH
TIME WILL TEMPS HAVE TO DIVE ESP IN AREAS OF FRESH SNOWFALL.
TONIGHT...CONTINUED TOWARD SLOWER CLEARING OF THE SKIES...WITH
MOST UNCERTAINTY OVER EASTERN ND WHERE SKIES ARE CURRENTLY CLEARING
OUT. SFC HIGH CURRENTLY OVER W CNTRL SD AND WILL DRIFT
EASTWARD...KEEPING ANY COMPLETE DECOUPLING AND THEREFORE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES IN SD. DO NOT EXPECT WINDS TO COMPLETELY DECOUPLE
OVER FGF CWA...WITH LIGHT NW WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND SW OVER
NIGHT. SHOULD SKIES CLEAR OUT WHERE THE RIDGE AXIS/LIGHTEST WINDS
ARE...WILL NEED TO DROP TEMPS QUITE A BIT. BUT HAVE BUMPED UP
TEMPS QUITE A BIT ESP OVER NW AND W CNTRL MN...WHERE STRATUS IS
EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO TUE AM HOURS.
TUE AND TUE NIGHT...DRY UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS CWA. TEMPS WILL BE
VERY DEPENDENT ON TONIGHTS LOWS AND STRATUS SITUATION TOMORROW
MORNING. CURRENTLY THINK FAR EASTERN ZONES WILL STILL BE OVC BUT
SCT OUT BY NOON...WITH REST OF CWA SEEING SOME DEG OF SOLAR. TEMPS
SHOULD RISE INTO 20S...WARMEST IN THE WEST.
WED AND WED NIGHT...LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...WITH
SFC BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN TIES OF CONUS. LOOKS FOR
STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BECOMING WESTERLY WED NIGHT. THIS
WILL HELP BRING TEMPS UP INTO 30S...AND STRONG OVERNIGHT TEMPS
SHOULD KEEP WED NIGHT LOWS IN THE 20S. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
OVER SNOWFALL ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES WED AFTN INTO WED
NIGHT...HOWEVER WITH SFC LOW WELL NORTH OF CWA EXPECT ANY
ACCUMULATIONS TO BE MINIMAL. ALSO A CHANCE OF SOME LIQUID
PRECIP...BUT WITH LATEST THICKNESS VALUES HAVE CHANGED BACK TO ALL SNOW.
THU...WESTERLY WINDS THROUGHOUT DAY...WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME
LINGERING SNOW ACTIVITY IN FAR NORTHEAST AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
INTO ONTARIO...AND OVER DVL REGION AS NEXT UPPER WAVE COMES
ACROSS. TEMPS SHOULD RISE INTO 30S GIVEN WARMER WED NIGHT LOWS.
LONG TERM... /THU NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT ON BRINGING WEAK
SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE OF
COURSE MINOR DIFFERENCES IN TIMING. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF SUCH
MINOR SHORTWAVES AND WITH THE ENSEMBLE PRECIP PROBABILITIES
REMAINING FAIRLY LOW...WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE LOW POPS THAT
ALLBLEND GIVES US. AFTER SOME FAIRLY WARM TEMPERATURES AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD...THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON BRINGING DOWN A DECENT COLD SURGE FOR THE WEEKEND AS
ONE OF THE SHORTWAVES HELPS TO AMPLIFY THE UPPER TROUGH TO OUR
EAST. TEMPS SHOULD RETURN CLOSER TO WHAT IS AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR.
AVIATION...
SAT LOOP SHOWS THE CLEARING LINE AS MOVED EAST OF KDVL AND EXPECT
THAT IT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. IFR
CEILINGS SHOULD GO UP TO MVFR BEFORE THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDS
ARRIVE. THINK THAT KGFK AND KFAR SHOULD CLEAR OUT SOMETIME JUST
BEFORE 06Z WITH THE EASTERN TAF SITES NOT CLEARING OUT UNTIL THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS...IF THEY CLEAR OUT AT ALL. NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL DROP BELOW 12 KTS AND BECOME SOUTHERLY BY MORNING.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
GODON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
1155 AM CST SUN JAN 22 2012
.UPDATE...
WILL BE EXPANDING RED FLAG WARNING UP INTO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA.
30
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1115 AM CST SUN JAN 22 2012/
.AVIATION...
MAIN ISSUE FOR THIS PERIOD WILL BE VERY STRONG WINDS WITH TWO FRONTS
MOVING THROUGH EARLY IN THE PERIOD. PAC FRONT ALONG THE WRN OK
BORDER LATE THIS MORNING WILL MOVE THROUGH AREA SITES BY MID
AFTERNOON WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE WESTERLY AND INCREASING.
SECONDARY FRONT FROM NE NM INTO WRN KS LATE MORNING WILL DROP SEWD
INTO NW OK EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THEN SWEEP THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA BY EARLY EVENING. WINDS WILL BE VERY STRONG BEHIND BOTH
FRONTS WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 KTS COMMON. WIDESPREAD BLOWING DUST
EMANATING FROM W TX WILL LIKELY SPREAD INTO PARTS OF WRN OK AND N TX
AND WILL INCLUDE VSBY RESTRICTIONS FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON.
ALSO A FEW HIGH BASED SHOWERS MAY IMPACT NRN OK SITES THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING BENEATH COLD UPPER LOW. A REL BRIEF PERIOD OF
VFR/MVFR CIGS MAY BRIEFLY SPREAD INTO PARTS OF NRN CENTRAL OK LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING BEFORE CLEARING FROM THE SW AS SURFACE LOW
LIFTS RAPIDLY NEWD.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1040 AM CST SUN JAN 22 2012/
.UPDATE...
WILL DO A QUICK UPDATE TO INTRO SOME BLOWING DUST INTO GRIDS ACROSS
SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
NO CHANGES TO TODAY GRIDS AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER WILL NEED TO CLOSELY
MONITOR TEMPS/DEWPOINTS ACROSS SOUTHWEST OK TODAY FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF DEVELOPMENT OF RED FLAG CONDITIONS INTO SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA. SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOW LOWER DEWPOINTS MOVING INTO THE
AREA THIS AFTN AND THIS WOULD ALLOW RH TO DROP BELOW 20% THRESHOLD.
MORNING MODELS ALSO INDICATE THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY
OCCUR DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF THE AFTN ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN
AND NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA WITH THE PASSAGE OF SECONDARY FRONT...
WHICH WILL SHIFT THE SFC WINDS MORE TO THE NORTHWEST. AT THAT POINT
WE COULD SEE A PERIOD OF A FEW HOURS WITH GUSTS OVER 50 MPH WITH A
GRADUAL SHIFT TOWARD NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA TOWARD SUNSET. WINDS
SHOULD DIMINISH RATHER QUICKLY AS WE DECOUPLE AROUND THIS TIME.
SO... EVEN WITH POSSIBLE LATER START TO THE STRONGEST WINDS... DO
NOT ANTICIPATE ANY CHANGES TO THE WIND ADVISORY/HIGH WIND WARNING
HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.
30
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 536 AM CST SUN JAN 22 2012/
.AVIATION...MOIST RETURN FLOW FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING WILL
YIELD LIGHT FOG AND IFR STRATUS AT CENTRAL OKLAHOMA SITES. WINDS
BEGIN THE PERIOD ABOVE 12 KT AT MOST LOCATIONS. LIGHT AND BACKED
SURFACE WINDS AT KLAW WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE LLWS UNTIL DEEPER
MIXING BEGINS AROUND 22/15Z. WINDS SET TO VEER TO WESTERLY AND
INCREASE MARKEDLY BEHIND A PACIFIC COLD FRONT...WITH GUSTS ABOVE
30 KT BY 22/18Z. A STRONGER WIND SHIFT WILL FOLLOW IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...RESULTING IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF INTENSE WIND...
ESPECIALLY WESTERN OKLAHOMA SITES...WHERE GUSTS MAY EXCEED 45 KT.
SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH RATHER QUICKLY LATE IN THE PERIOD.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CST SUN JAN 22 2012/
DISCUSSION...ACTIVE WEATHER TODAY WITH HIGH WINDS AND EXTREME FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS.
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING 995 MB WILL TRACK EASTWARD NEAR THE
KANSAS BORDER DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...WHILE A COMPACT MID
LEVEL JET MAX EJECTS SOUTH OF THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND
NORTH TEXAS. THIS SCENARIO OFTEN LEADS TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS EVEN
IN MID WINTER.
THERE ARE TWO NOTEWORTHY SURFACE BOUNDARIES. A PACIFIC FRONT WILL
REACH INTERSTATE 35 BY NOON TO 1 PM AND CONTINUE EASTWARD.
ALTHOUGH THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL MAKE FOR A BREEZY MORNING...THE
WIND WILL INCREASE MARKEDLY BEHIND THE PACIFIC FRONT...WHERE DEEP
MIXING WILL OCCUR. WE EXPANDED THE WIND ADVISORY TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS. MEANWHILE...A SECOND COLD FRONT EMANATING FROM THE
ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS WILL DIVE INTO WESTERN OK AND WESTERN NORTH TX
THIS AFTERNOON. TRENDS IN THE NAM AND RUC SUGGEST GUSTS ABOVE 50
OR 60 MPH WILL OCCUR WITH THIS FRONT...AND WE HAVE ISSUED A HIGH
WIND WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA.
THE RUC ALSO SUGGESTS HIGH WIND CRITERIA COULD BE MET OVER FAR
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS BENEATH THE MID LEVEL JET...AND EVEN PRIOR TO
THE ARRIVAL OF THE SECOND...STRONGER FRONT. WE WERE NOT QUITE
CONVINCED BECAUSE MOST OF THE COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE PACIFIC
FRONT OCCURS PRIOR TO DEEP MIXING IN THAT AREA...AND THE TIGHTER
GRADIENTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SECOND FRONT WILL PASS NORTH THROUGH
OKLAHOMA. THE DAY SHIFT MAY NEED TO EXPAND THE HIGH WIND WARNING
INTO TEXAS IF THE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST IT IS NEEDED. WE ADJUSTED
THE RED FLAG WARNING BASED ON THE HUMIDITY FORECAST...ADDING ONLY
CLAY COUNTY.
THE WIND WILL QUIET DOWN BY MONDAY MORNING...AND WE GO BACK TO OUR
ACTIVE WESTERLY JET ALOFT WITH SEASONABLE OR RELATIVELY MILD
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEK AHEAD. THE JET WILL BUCKLE ENOUGH FOR A
CLOSED LOW TO PRODUCE RAIN OVER TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA MID
WEEK...BEFORE IT IS RE-ABSORBED IN THE FLOW. IT HAS BEEN DIFFICULT
THIS WINTER TO PREDICT EXACTLY WHERE THE LOW WILL CLOSE OFF...AND
HOW QUICKLY IT WILL BE RE-ABSORBED. IT DOES LOOK...THOUGH...AS IF
THERE IS A FAIRLY GOOD CHANCE OF SOME RAIN ACCUMULATION TUESDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY FROM NORTH TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA.
THE OPERATIONAL MODEL SOLUTIONS WOULD BRING GREATER RAIN COVERAGE
AND AMOUNTS FARTHER NORTHWARD INTO OKLAHOMA...BUT WE DID NOT
COMMIT IN THAT DIRECTION...AS THE OPERATIONAL RUNS ARE QUITE A BIT
FARTHER NORTH THEN THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.
THE NEXT SHOT OF COLDER WEATHER IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 65 30 57 35 / 10 0 0 0
HOBART OK 64 31 58 34 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 69 34 62 39 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 59 23 54 25 / 20 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 62 29 55 31 / 10 10 0 0
DURANT OK 70 39 61 40 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CST THIS EVENING
FOR OKZ007-008-012-013-018>020-023>030-036>038-044.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS
EVENING FOR OKZ004>006-009>011-014>017-021-022-033>035.
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
OKZ031-032-039>042-045-046-050.
TX...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CST THIS EVENING
FOR TXZ083>089.
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
TXZ090.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
TXZ083>090.
&&
$$
26/22/22
BURKE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
1115 AM CST SUN JAN 22 2012
.AVIATION...
MAIN ISSUE FOR THIS PERIOD WILL BE VERY STRONG WINDS WITH TWO FRONTS
MOVING THROUGH EARLY IN THE PERIOD. PAC FRONT ALONG THE WRN OK
BORDER LATE THIS MORNING WILL MOVE THROUGH AREA SITES BY MID
AFTERNOON WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE WESTERLY AND INCREASING.
SECONDARY FRONT FROM NE NM INTO WRN KS LATE MORNING WILL DROP SEWD
INTO NW OK EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THEN SWEEP THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA BY EARLY EVENING. WINDS WILL BE VERY STRONG BEHIND BOTH
FRONTS WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 KTS COMMON. WIDESPREAD BLOWING DUST
EMANATING FROM W TX WILL LIKELY SPREAD INTO PARTS OF WRN OK AND N TX
AND WILL INCLUDE VSBY RESTRICTIONS FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON.
ALSO A FEW HIGH BASED SHOWERS MAY IMPACT NRN OK SITES THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING BENEATH COLD UPPER LOW. A REL BRIEF PERIOD OF
VFR/MVFR CIGS MAY BRIEFLY SPREAD INTO PARTS OF NRN CENTRAL OK LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING BEFORE CLEARING FROM THE SW AS SURFACE LOW
LIFTS RAPIDLY NEWD.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1040 AM CST SUN JAN 22 2012/
.UPDATE...
WILL DO A QUICK UPDATE TO INTRO SOME BLOWING DUST INTO GRIDS ACROSS
SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
NO CHANGES TO TODAY GRIDS AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER WILL NEED TO CLOSELY
MONITOR TEMPS/DEWPOINTS ACROSS SOUTHWEST OK TODAY FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF DEVELOPMENT OF RED FLAG CONDITIONS INTO SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA. SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOW LOWER DEWPOINTS MOVING INTO THE
AREA THIS AFTN AND THIS WOULD ALLOW RH TO DROP BELOW 20% THRESHOLD.
MORNING MODELS ALSO INDICATE THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY
OCCUR DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF THE AFTN ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN
AND NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA WITH THE PASSAGE OF SECONDARY FRONT...
WHICH WILL SHIFT THE SFC WINDS MORE TO THE NORTHWEST. AT THAT POINT
WE COULD SEE A PERIOD OF A FEW HOURS WITH GUSTS OVER 50 MPH WITH A
GRADUAL SHIFT TOWARD NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA TOWARD SUNSET. WINDS
SHOULD DIMINISH RATHER QUICKLY AS WE DECOUPLE AROUND THIS TIME.
SO... EVEN WITH POSSIBLE LATER START TO THE STRONGEST WINDS... DO
NOT ANTICIPATE ANY CHANGES TO THE WIND ADVISORY/HIGH WIND WARNING
HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.
30
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 536 AM CST SUN JAN 22 2012/
.AVIATION...MOIST RETURN FLOW FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING WILL
YIELD LIGHT FOG AND IFR STRATUS AT CENTRAL OKLAHOMA SITES. WINDS
BEGIN THE PERIOD ABOVE 12 KT AT MOST LOCATIONS. LIGHT AND BACKED
SURFACE WINDS AT KLAW WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE LLWS UNTIL DEEPER
MIXING BEGINS AROUND 22/15Z. WINDS SET TO VEER TO WESTERLY AND
INCREASE MARKEDLY BEHIND A PACIFIC COLD FRONT...WITH GUSTS ABOVE
30 KT BY 22/18Z. A STRONGER WIND SHIFT WILL FOLLOW IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...RESULTING IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF INTENSE WIND...
ESPECIALLY WESTERN OKLAHOMA SITES...WHERE GUSTS MAY EXCEED 45 KT.
SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH RATHER QUICKLY LATE IN THE PERIOD.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CST SUN JAN 22 2012/
DISCUSSION...ACTIVE WEATHER TODAY WITH HIGH WINDS AND EXTREME FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS.
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING 995 MB WILL TRACK EASTWARD NEAR THE
KANSAS BORDER DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...WHILE A COMPACT MID
LEVEL JET MAX EJECTS SOUTH OF THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND
NORTH TEXAS. THIS SCENARIO OFTEN LEADS TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS EVEN
IN MID WINTER.
THERE ARE TWO NOTEWORTHY SURFACE BOUNDARIES. A PACIFIC FRONT WILL
REACH INTERSTATE 35 BY NOON TO 1 PM AND CONTINUE EASTWARD.
ALTHOUGH THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL MAKE FOR A BREEZY MORNING...THE
WIND WILL INCREASE MARKEDLY BEHIND THE PACIFIC FRONT...WHERE DEEP
MIXING WILL OCCUR. WE EXPANDED THE WIND ADVISORY TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS. MEANWHILE...A SECOND COLD FRONT EMANATING FROM THE
ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS WILL DIVE INTO WESTERN OK AND WESTERN NORTH TX
THIS AFTERNOON. TRENDS IN THE NAM AND RUC SUGGEST GUSTS ABOVE 50
OR 60 MPH WILL OCCUR WITH THIS FRONT...AND WE HAVE ISSUED A HIGH
WIND WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA.
THE RUC ALSO SUGGESTS HIGH WIND CRITERIA COULD BE MET OVER FAR
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS BENEATH THE MID LEVEL JET...AND EVEN PRIOR TO
THE ARRIVAL OF THE SECOND...STRONGER FRONT. WE WERE NOT QUITE
CONVINCED BECAUSE MOST OF THE COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE PACIFIC
FRONT OCCURS PRIOR TO DEEP MIXING IN THAT AREA...AND THE TIGHTER
GRADIENTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SECOND FRONT WILL PASS NORTH THROUGH
OKLAHOMA. THE DAY SHIFT MAY NEED TO EXPAND THE HIGH WIND WARNING
INTO TEXAS IF THE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST IT IS NEEDED. WE ADJUSTED
THE RED FLAG WARNING BASED ON THE HUMIDITY FORECAST...ADDING ONLY
CLAY COUNTY.
THE WIND WILL QUIET DOWN BY MONDAY MORNING...AND WE GO BACK TO OUR
ACTIVE WESTERLY JET ALOFT WITH SEASONABLE OR RELATIVELY MILD
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEK AHEAD. THE JET WILL BUCKLE ENOUGH FOR A
CLOSED LOW TO PRODUCE RAIN OVER TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA MID
WEEK...BEFORE IT IS RE-ABSORBED IN THE FLOW. IT HAS BEEN DIFFICULT
THIS WINTER TO PREDICT EXACTLY WHERE THE LOW WILL CLOSE OFF...AND
HOW QUICKLY IT WILL BE RE-ABSORBED. IT DOES LOOK...THOUGH...AS IF
THERE IS A FAIRLY GOOD CHANCE OF SOME RAIN ACCUMULATION TUESDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY FROM NORTH TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA.
THE OPERATIONAL MODEL SOLUTIONS WOULD BRING GREATER RAIN COVERAGE
AND AMOUNTS FARTHER NORTHWARD INTO OKLAHOMA...BUT WE DID NOT
COMMIT IN THAT DIRECTION...AS THE OPERATIONAL RUNS ARE QUITE A BIT
FARTHER NORTH THEN THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.
THE NEXT SHOT OF COLDER WEATHER IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 65 30 57 35 / 10 0 0 0
HOBART OK 64 31 58 34 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 69 34 62 39 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 59 23 54 25 / 20 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 62 29 55 31 / 10 10 0 0
DURANT OK 70 39 61 40 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CST THIS EVENING
FOR OKZ007-008-012-013-018>020-023>030-036>038-044.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS
EVENING FOR OKZ004>006-009>011-014>017-021-022-033>035.
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
OKZ031-032-039>042-045-046-050.
TX...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CST THIS EVENING
FOR TXZ083>089.
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
TXZ090.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
TXZ083>090.
&&
$$
26/22/22
BURKE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
1040 AM CST SUN JAN 22 2012
.UPDATE...
WILL DO A QUICK UPDATE TO INTRO SOME BLOWING DUST INTO GRIDS ACROSS
SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
NO CHANGES TO TODAY GRIDS AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER WILL NEED TO CLOSELY
MONITOR TEMPS/DEWPOINTS ACROSS SOUTHWEST OK TODAY FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF DEVELOPMENT OF RED FLAG CONDITIONS INTO SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA. SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOW LOWER DEWPOINTS MOVING INTO THE
AREA THIS AFTN AND THIS WOULD ALLOW RH TO DROP BELOW 20% THRESHOLD.
MORNING MODELS ALSO INDICATE THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY
OCCUR DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF THE AFTN ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN
AND NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA WITH THE PASSAGE OF SECONDARY FRONT...
WHICH WILL SHIFT THE SFC WINDS MORE TO THE NORTHWEST. AT THAT POINT
WE COULD SEE A PERIOD OF A FEW HOURS WITH GUSTS OVER 50 MPH WITH A
GRADUAL SHIFT TOWARD NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA TOWARD SUNSET. WINDS
SHOULD DIMINISH RATHER QUICKLY AS WE DECOUPLE AROUND THIS TIME.
SO... EVEN WITH POSSIBLE LATER START TO THE STRONGEST WINDS... DO
NOT ANTICIPATE ANY CHANGES TO THE WIND ADVISORY/HIGH WIND WARNING
HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.
30
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 536 AM CST SUN JAN 22 2012/
.AVIATION...MOIST RETURN FLOW FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING WILL
YIELD LIGHT FOG AND IFR STRATUS AT CENTRAL OKLAHOMA SITES. WINDS
BEGIN THE PERIOD ABOVE 12 KT AT MOST LOCATIONS. LIGHT AND BACKED
SURFACE WINDS AT KLAW WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE LLWS UNTIL DEEPER
MIXING BEGINS AROUND 22/15Z. WINDS SET TO VEER TO WESTERLY AND
INCREASE MARKEDLY BEHIND A PACIFIC COLD FRONT...WITH GUSTS ABOVE
30 KT BY 22/18Z. A STRONGER WIND SHIFT WILL FOLLOW IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...RESULTING IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF INTENSE WIND...
ESPECIALLY WESTERN OKLAHOMA SITES...WHERE GUSTS MAY EXCEED 45 KT.
SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH RATHER QUICKLY LATE IN THE PERIOD.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CST SUN JAN 22 2012/
DISCUSSION...ACTIVE WEATHER TODAY WITH HIGH WINDS AND EXTREME FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS.
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING 995 MB WILL TRACK EASTWARD NEAR THE
KANSAS BORDER DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...WHILE A COMPACT MID
LEVEL JET MAX EJECTS SOUTH OF THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND
NORTH TEXAS. THIS SCENARIO OFTEN LEADS TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS EVEN
IN MID WINTER.
THERE ARE TWO NOTEWORTHY SURFACE BOUNDARIES. A PACIFIC FRONT WILL
REACH INTERSTATE 35 BY NOON TO 1 PM AND CONTINUE EASTWARD.
ALTHOUGH THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL MAKE FOR A BREEZY MORNING...THE
WIND WILL INCREASE MARKEDLY BEHIND THE PACIFIC FRONT...WHERE DEEP
MIXING WILL OCCUR. WE EXPANDED THE WIND ADVISORY TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS. MEANWHILE...A SECOND COLD FRONT EMANATING FROM THE
ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS WILL DIVE INTO WESTERN OK AND WESTERN NORTH TX
THIS AFTERNOON. TRENDS IN THE NAM AND RUC SUGGEST GUSTS ABOVE 50
OR 60 MPH WILL OCCUR WITH THIS FRONT...AND WE HAVE ISSUED A HIGH
WIND WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA.
THE RUC ALSO SUGGESTS HIGH WIND CRITERIA COULD BE MET OVER FAR
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS BENEATH THE MID LEVEL JET...AND EVEN PRIOR TO
THE ARRIVAL OF THE SECOND...STRONGER FRONT. WE WERE NOT QUITE
CONVINCED BECAUSE MOST OF THE COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE PACIFIC
FRONT OCCURS PRIOR TO DEEP MIXING IN THAT AREA...AND THE TIGHTER
GRADIENTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SECOND FRONT WILL PASS NORTH THROUGH
OKLAHOMA. THE DAY SHIFT MAY NEED TO EXPAND THE HIGH WIND WARNING
INTO TEXAS IF THE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST IT IS NEEDED. WE ADJUSTED
THE RED FLAG WARNING BASED ON THE HUMIDITY FORECAST...ADDING ONLY
CLAY COUNTY.
THE WIND WILL QUIET DOWN BY MONDAY MORNING...AND WE GO BACK TO OUR
ACTIVE WESTERLY JET ALOFT WITH SEASONABLE OR RELATIVELY MILD
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEK AHEAD. THE JET WILL BUCKLE ENOUGH FOR A
CLOSED LOW TO PRODUCE RAIN OVER TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA MID
WEEK...BEFORE IT IS RE-ABSORBED IN THE FLOW. IT HAS BEEN DIFFICULT
THIS WINTER TO PREDICT EXACTLY WHERE THE LOW WILL CLOSE OFF...AND
HOW QUICKLY IT WILL BE RE-ABSORBED. IT DOES LOOK...THOUGH...AS IF
THERE IS A FAIRLY GOOD CHANCE OF SOME RAIN ACCUMULATION TUESDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY FROM NORTH TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA.
THE OPERATIONAL MODEL SOLUTIONS WOULD BRING GREATER RAIN COVERAGE
AND AMOUNTS FARTHER NORTHWARD INTO OKLAHOMA...BUT WE DID NOT
COMMIT IN THAT DIRECTION...AS THE OPERATIONAL RUNS ARE QUITE A BIT
FARTHER NORTH THEN THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.
THE NEXT SHOT OF COLDER WEATHER IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 65 30 57 35 / 10 0 0 0
HOBART OK 64 31 58 34 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 69 34 62 39 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 59 23 54 25 / 20 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 62 29 55 31 / 10 10 0 0
DURANT OK 70 39 61 40 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CST THIS EVENING
FOR OKZ007-008-012-013-018>020-023>030-036>038-044.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS
EVENING FOR OKZ004>006-009>011-014>017-021-022-033>035.
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
OKZ031-032-039>042-045-046-050.
TX...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CST THIS EVENING
FOR TXZ083>089.
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
TXZ090.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
TXZ083>090.
&&
$$
26/22/22
BURKE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
536 AM CST SUN JAN 22 2012
.AVIATION...MOIST RETURN FLOW FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING WILL
YIELD LIGHT FOG AND IFR STRATUS AT CENTRAL OKLAHOMA SITES. WINDS
BEGIN THE PERIOD ABOVE 12 KT AT MOST LOCATIONS. LIGHT AND BACKED
SURFACE WINDS AT KLAW WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE LLWS UNTIL DEEPER
MIXING BEGINS AROUND 22/15Z. WINDS SET TO VEER TO WESTERLY AND
INCREASE MARKEDLY BEHIND A PACIFIC COLD FRONT...WITH GUSTS ABOVE
30 KT BY 22/18Z. A STRONGER WIND SHIFT WILL FOLLOW IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...RESULTING IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF INTENSE WIND...
ESPECIALLY WESTERN OKLAHOMA SITES...WHERE GUSTS MAY EXCEED 45 KT.
SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH RATHER QUICKLY LATE IN THE PERIOD.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CST SUN JAN 22 2012/
DISCUSSION...ACTIVE WEATHER TODAY WITH HIGH WINDS AND EXTREME FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS.
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING 995 MB WILL TRACK EASTWARD NEAR THE
KANSAS BORDER DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...WHILE A COMPACT MID
LEVEL JET MAX EJECTS SOUTH OF THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND
NORTH TEXAS. THIS SCENARIO OFTEN LEADS TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS EVEN
IN MID WINTER.
THERE ARE TWO NOTEWORTHY SURFACE BOUNDARIES. A PACIFIC FRONT WILL
REACH INTERSTATE 35 BY NOON TO 1 PM AND CONTINUE EASTWARD.
ALTHOUGH THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL MAKE FOR A BREEZY MORNING...THE
WIND WILL INCREASE MARKEDLY BEHIND THE PACIFIC FRONT...WHERE DEEP
MIXING WILL OCCUR. WE EXPANDED THE WIND ADVISORY TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS. MEANWHILE...A SECOND COLD FRONT EMANATING FROM THE
ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS WILL DIVE INTO WESTERN OK AND WESTERN NORTH TX
THIS AFTERNOON. TRENDS IN THE NAM AND RUC SUGGEST GUSTS ABOVE 50
OR 60 MPH WILL OCCUR WITH THIS FRONT...AND WE HAVE ISSUED A HIGH
WIND WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA.
THE RUC ALSO SUGGESTS HIGH WIND CRITERIA COULD BE MET OVER FAR
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS BENEATH THE MID LEVEL JET...AND EVEN PRIOR TO
THE ARRIVAL OF THE SECOND...STRONGER FRONT. WE WERE NOT QUITE
CONVINCED BECAUSE MOST OF THE COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE PACIFIC
FRONT OCCURS PRIOR TO DEEP MIXING IN THAT AREA...AND THE TIGHTER
GRADIENTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SECOND FRONT WILL PASS NORTH THROUGH
OKLAHOMA. THE DAY SHIFT MAY NEED TO EXPAND THE HIGH WIND WARNING
INTO TEXAS IF THE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST IT IS NEEDED. WE ADJUSTED
THE RED FLAG WARNING BASED ON THE HUMIDITY FORECAST...ADDING ONLY
CLAY COUNTY.
THE WIND WILL QUIET DOWN BY MONDAY MORNING...AND WE GO BACK TO OUR
ACTIVE WESTERLY JET ALOFT WITH SEASONABLE OR RELATIVELY MILD
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEK AHEAD. THE JET WILL BUCKLE ENOUGH FOR A
CLOSED LOW TO PRODUCE RAIN OVER TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA MID
WEEK...BEFORE IT IS RE-ABSORBED IN THE FLOW. IT HAS BEEN DIFFICULT
THIS WINTER TO PREDICT EXACTLY WHERE THE LOW WILL CLOSE OFF...AND
HOW QUICKLY IT WILL BE RE-ABSORBED. IT DOES LOOK...THOUGH...AS IF
THERE IS A FAIRLY GOOD CHANCE OF SOME RAIN ACCUMULATION TUESDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY FROM NORTH TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA.
THE OPERATIONAL MODEL SOLUTIONS WOULD BRING GREATER RAIN COVERAGE
AND AMOUNTS FARTHER NORTHWARD INTO OKLAHOMA...BUT WE DID NOT
COMMIT IN THAT DIRECTION...AS THE OPERATIONAL RUNS ARE QUITE A BIT
FARTHER NORTH THEN THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.
THE NEXT SHOT OF COLDER WEATHER IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 65 30 57 35 / 10 0 0 0
HOBART OK 64 31 58 34 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 69 34 62 39 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 59 23 54 25 / 20 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 62 29 55 31 / 10 10 0 0
DURANT OK 70 39 61 40 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CST THIS EVENING
FOR OKZ007-008-012-013-018>020-023>030-036>038-044.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS
EVENING FOR OKZ004>006-009>011-014>017-021-022-033>035.
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
OKZ031-032-039>042-045-046-050.
TX...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CST THIS EVENING
FOR TXZ083>089.
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
TXZ090.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
TXZ083>090.
&&
$$
26/22/22
BURKE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
405 AM CST SUN JAN 22 2012
.DISCUSSION...ACTIVE WEATHER TODAY WITH HIGH WINDS AND EXTREME FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS.
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING 995 MB WILL TRACK EASTWARD NEAR THE
KANSAS BORDER DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...WHILE A COMPACT MID
LEVEL JET MAX EJECTS SOUTH OF THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND
NORTH TEXAS. THIS SCENARIO OFTEN LEADS TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS EVEN
IN MID WINTER.
THERE ARE TWO NOTEWORTHY SURFACE BOUNDARIES. A PACIFIC FRONT WILL
REACH INTERSTATE 35 BY NOON TO 1 PM AND CONTINUE EASTWARD.
ALTHOUGH THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL MAKE FOR A BREEZY MORNING...THE
WIND WILL INCREASE MARKEDLY BEHIND THE PACIFIC FRONT...WHERE DEEP
MIXING WILL OCCUR. WE EXPANDED THE WIND ADVISORY TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS. MEANWHILE...A SECOND COLD FRONT EMANATING FROM THE
ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS WILL DIVE INTO WESTERN OK AND WESTERN NORTH TX
THIS AFTERNOON. TRENDS IN THE NAM AND RUC SUGGEST GUSTS ABOVE 50
OR 60 MPH WILL OCCUR WITH THIS FRONT...AND WE HAVE ISSUED A HIGH
WIND WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA.
THE RUC ALSO SUGGESTS HIGH WIND CRITERIA COULD BE MET OVER FAR
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS BENEATH THE MID LEVEL JET...AND EVEN PRIOR TO
THE ARRIVAL OF THE SECOND...STRONGER FRONT. WE WERE NOT QUITE
CONVINCED BECAUSE MOST OF THE COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE PACIFIC
FRONT OCCURS PRIOR TO DEEP MIXING IN THAT AREA...AND THE TIGHTER
GRADIENTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SECOND FRONT WILL PASS NORTH THROUGH
OKLAHOMA. THE DAY SHIFT MAY NEED TO EXPAND THE HIGH WIND WARNING
INTO TEXAS IF THE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST IT IS NEEDED. WE ADJUSTED
THE RED FLAG WARNING BASED ON THE HUMIDITY FORECAST...ADDING ONLY
CLAY COUNTY.
THE WIND WILL QUIET DOWN BY MONDAY MORNING...AND WE GO BACK TO OUR
ACTIVE WESTERLY JET ALOFT WITH SEASONABLE OR RELATIVELY MILD
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEK AHEAD. THE JET WILL BUCKLE ENOUGH FOR A
CLOSED LOW TO PRODUCE RAIN OVER TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA MID
WEEK...BEFORE IT IS RE-ABSORBED IN THE FLOW. IT HAS BEEN DIFFICULT
THIS WINTER TO PREDICT EXACTLY WHERE THE LOW WILL CLOSE OFF...AND
HOW QUICKLY IT WILL BE RE-ABSORBED. IT DOES LOOK...THOUGH...AS IF
THERE IS A FAIRLY GOOD CHANCE OF SOME RAIN ACCUMULATION TUESDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY FROM NORTH TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA.
THE OPERATIONAL MODEL SOLUTIONS WOULD BRING GREATER RAIN COVERAGE
AND AMOUNTS FARTHER NORTHWARD INTO OKLAHOMA...BUT WE DID NOT
COMMIT IN THAT DIRECTION...AS THE OPERATIONAL RUNS ARE QUITE A BIT
FARTHER NORTH THEN THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.
THE NEXT SHOT OF COLDER WEATHER IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 65 30 57 35 / 10 0 0 0
HOBART OK 64 31 58 34 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 69 34 62 39 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 59 23 54 25 / 20 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 62 29 55 31 / 10 10 0 0
DURANT OK 70 39 61 40 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CST THIS EVENING
FOR OKZ007-008-012-013-018>020-023>030-036>038-044.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS
EVENING FOR OKZ004>006-009>011-014>017-021-022-033>035.
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
OKZ031-032-039>042-045-046-050.
TX...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CST THIS EVENING
FOR TXZ083>089.
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
TXZ090.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
TXZ083>090.
&&
$$
26/22
BURKE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
703 PM EST MON JAN 23 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL PA TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING DRIER CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD.
THE NEXT SYSTEM SLATED TO BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER SHOULD ARRIVE
LATER THURSDAY OR FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
COLD FRONT MOVING INTO WESTERN PA THIS EVENING...ACCOMPANIED BY A
BROKEN LINE OF SHRA AND EVEN A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ACROSS THE NW
MTNS. RUC STABILITY INDICES SUGGEST THE NW MTNS ARE THE ONLY AREA
SUSCEPTIBLE TO LIGHTNING BTWN 23Z-01Z. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT SHOWERS TO
DWINDLE AS THEY MOVE INTO THE STABLE AIR MASS ENTRENCHED EAST OF
THE ALLEGHENIES. EVENING POPS RANGE FROM NR 100 PCT ACROSS THE NW
MTNS...TO ARND 10 PCT LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
FRONT WILL COME THRU THE CENTRAL COUNTIES LATER THIS
EVENING...ACCOMPANIED BY THE CHC OF A -SHRA AND BRIEFLY RISING
TEMPS AS LOW LVL INVERSION BREAKS. FURTHER EAST...AREAS OF FOG
WILL BE THE BIGGEST CONCERN THIS EVENING OVR THE SUSQ VALLEY /HARRISBURG
DOWN TO 1/2SM AT 22Z/. HOWEVER...ARRIVAL OF OCCLUDED FRONT WILL
BRING DRIER WESTERLY FLOW AND LIKELY DISPERSE THE FOG LATE
TONIGHT.
BEHIND THE FRONT WE WILL TRANSITION TO A MORE TYPICAL COOL AIR
ADVECTION REGIME. RESIDUAL LOW LVL MOISTURE ASCENDING THE
ALLEGHENIES ON WSW FLOW WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SCT -SHSN LATER
TONIGHT. MDL QPF SUGGESTS A LIGHT DUSTING IS POSSIBLE OVR THE NW
MTNS BY DAWN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
WEST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST SFC WINDS WILL GUST IN THE 20 TO 25 MPH
RANGE TUESDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING AS THE DAY WEARS ON. SOME SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY CAN BE EXPECTED OVER WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN BUT THE
POST FRONTAL AIR ISN`T TERRIBLY COLD SO WE ARE NOT EXPECTING MORE
THAN NUISANCE ACCUMS OF SNOW OVER THE LAURELS AND NW MOUNTAINS.
MAX TEMPS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT WILL NOT BE ALL
THAT COLD. IN FACT...AFTERNOON HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE SOME 5-8F
ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK NORTHERN-SOUTHERN STREAM COUPLED RIDGING OVER THE MID ATLC AT
THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL GIVE WAY TO FLAT NORTHERN STREAM
FLOW FOR A DAY OR TWO BEFORE A STRONGER SOUTHERN STREAM TROF
LIFTS INTO THE EAST U.S. LATE IN THE WEEK. NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY
ON THE HEELS OF THE SRN TROF LOOKS TO FORM A LARGE BUT PROGRESSIVE
UPPER TROF OVER THE NERN NOAM BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
RIDGING WILL SUPPORT DRY CONDS WED INTO EARLY THURS BEFORE THE
APPROACHING SRN STREAM TROF LIFTS TOWARD THE REGION...WITH A SFC
LOW EXPECTED NEAR DC BY FRIDAY MORNING. GIVEN CLIMATOLOGICALLY
COLD AIR IN PLACE A SNOWSTORM WOULD BE PRETTY LIKELY...BUT AGAIN
THIS TIME AROUND AT LEAST SOME OF THE AREA WILL BE ALL RAIN WITH A
MIX OVER MOST OF CENTRAL PA. THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL PULL A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE STATE ON SATURDAY. THE RESULTING UPPER LOW
OVER NERN NOAM WILL KEEP A COLD WESTERLY TO NWRLY FLOW OVER PA
FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH SCTD SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE MTNS.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS EXPECTED...FAR WESTERN AREAS CLEAR NOW...STILL SLOW TO MOVE
LOW CLDS OUT AT AOO AND UNV. DID NOT EXPECT LOW CLDS TO CLEAR
PRIOR TO 00Z ACROSS THE EAST. LLWS WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE
FOR A FEW MORE HOURS...ALONG WITH LOW CLDS.
ALSO SOME CHC OF A HEAVY SHOWER...EVEN A RUMBLE OF THUNDER
ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS.
THIN AREA OF VFR CONDITIONS BEHIND FRONT...BUT SC MOVING
EASTWARD AT A GOOD CLIP...THUS FOR NOW...EXPECT MAINLY
MVFR CONDITIONS LATER TONIGHT INTO TUE...EXCEPT EAST OF
THE MOUNTAINS...SPOTS LIKE IPT...MDT...AND LNS.
00Z TAFS ADJUSTED FOR CURRENT AND EXPECTED CONDITIONS.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
WIDESPREAD IFR WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE FRONT APPROACHES AND
GUSTY WEST WINDS ALLOW FOR SOME MIXING AND DRYING. THE TIME FRAME
FOR WIDESPREAD IMPROVEMENT WILL BE LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT WITH COLD AIR DAMMING EXPECTED TO HOLD TOUGH FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.
BFD/JST ACTUALLY MAY BENEFIT FROM THE DRY SLOT RACING INTO WRN
PA THIS AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY ALLOWING THEM TO QUICKLY SHOOT UP TO
VFR...BUT TIMING THIS IS NEXT TO IMPOSSIBLE AS CLOUDS TEND TO WANT
TO STAY LOCKED IN EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS.
AFTER THE FRONT PASSES WE WILL THEN TRANSITION INTO A FAMILIAR
COLD SEASON PATTERN WHERE WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN REMAINS MVFR/IFR
WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS...AND MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION IMPROVES TO VFR.
OUTLOOK...
TONIGHT...COLD FROPA/GUSTY WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS OVER ALL BUT THE WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN.
TUESDAY...MVFR IN -SHSN N/W...VFR E OF MTNS.
WED...MVFR/SNOW SHOWERS NW POSSIBLE. NO SIG WX ELSEWHERE.
THU...MVFR/IFR DEVELOPING WITH POSSIBLE WINTRY MIX OF PRECIP.
FRI...VFR MOST OF THE AREA...BUT MVFR AND IFR ACROSS THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS WITH SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY EARLY.
SAT...MAINLY VFR...BUT MVFR POSSIBLE AT JST AND BFD WITH
LOWER CLDS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...LA CORTE/MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
336 PM CST SUN JAN 22 2012
.DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 336 PM CST/
CHALLENGE IS AT HIGH LEVEL WITH SYSTEM IN THE SHORT TERM...DEALING
WITH A HEALTHY SPLIT FLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING FULL LATITUDE
TROUGH PUSH ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S...WITH SEVERAL PIECES OF ENERGY.
FIRST HAS MOVED PAST AND INTO NORTHWEST MN...SECOND IS LIFTING
THROUGH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...AND THIRD /THE STRONGEST/ LIFTING AROUND
THE BASE IN SOUTHERN KS. THE LATTER WILL DRIVE INTENSE CYCLOGENESIS
WELL EAST OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND MONDAY WITH ITS OWN IMPACT
BEING WINDS...BUT FOCUS WILL BE ON THE MID FEATURE FOR THE EVENING.
LEADING BOUNDARY/INVERTED TROUGH NOW SHIFTED TO NEAR A KRWF TO KSUX
LINE...AND COLLAPSING SOUTHEAST AS ENERGY IN SOUTHERN TROUGH LIFTS
NORTHWARD. TEMPS AHEAD ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA AREA ALL AT OR ABOVE
FREEZING NOW...WITH THE ONLY AREA STILL HAVING SOME PATCHY FREEZING
DRIZZLE FAR EASTERN SECTIONS OF SW MN AROUND KMWM/KMJQ/KOTG.
SNOWFALL ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE OTHER THAN THE FAR SOUTHEAST AT
MID AFTERNOON...IN BROAD DIV Q ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH.
PRECIPITATION IS ALSO BREAKING OUT ALONG THE LEADING PV SUPPORT
THROUGH NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA. EARLIER MINOR WARM
NOTCH NOTED ON MORNING RAOBS HAS APPARENTLY BEEN WORKED OUT
WITH PRECIPITATION ALL SNOW AT YANKTON PER LATEST WEBCAM IMAGE.
SHORT RANGE MODELS FAIL ON QPF BEING IN THE RIGHT PLACE...BUT HAVE
LESSER PROBLEMS WITH THE DYNAMICS IN MOST...ESPECIALLY IN PLACEMENT
OF THE SIGNIFICANT PV FEATURES. CLOSELY FOLLOWED RUC/NAM ON
THESE...AND RESULT WAS A QUICKER EASTWARD DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE PV
ADVECTION. QUICK PEEK AT LATEST HRRR WOULD SUGGEST THE PROGRESSION
MAY BE EVEN GREATER...AS WILL BE DEMISE OF THE WESTERN SNOW AREA IN
FAVOR OF THIS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NEBRASKA.
THERMODYNAMICALLY...THIS IS FAR FROM THE MOST EFFICIENT PROFILE WITH
MUCH OF THE LOWER PROFILES IN THE -5 TO -8C RANGE...AND THE LIFT
FAIRLY HIGH. DENDRITIC DEPTH IS LESS THAN 100 HPA...AND REALLY DO
NOT NOTE ANY SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY TO MAKE USE OF UNTIL MID TO
LATE EVENING WITH SOME APPEARING ABOVE OF MID LEVEL FRONT...SO LOOKS
MORE OF A BROAD AND LESSER FOCUSED EVENT UNTIL BAND DEVELOPS TOWARD
THE EAST. HOWEVER...FAIRLY QUICK PERIOD OF DYNAMIC/THERMODYNAMIC
OVERLAP...SO ANY ENHANCEMENT SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT SHORT TERM...BUT
COULD GET A LITTLE TIME BOOST BY THE SLOWING OF FEATURES DURING MID
LEVEL DEVELOPMENT TO EAST. IMPACT OVERALL WAS TO LOWER SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS BY AN INCH OR SO WEST...AND RAISE BY A HALF INCH TO INCH IN
THE EAST. WHILE MOST...IF NOT ALL OF THE AREA IS LIKELY TO STAY AT
OR BELOW SNOWFALL CRITERIA FOR AN ADVISORY... IT WILL BE THE
COMBINATION OF THE SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW THAT SUPPORTS THE ADVISORY.
THIS INCLUDES AREAS FARTHER EASTWARD WHICH RECEIVED SOME HEAVIER
SNOWFALL IN LAST EVENT. MAIN PUSH OF WINDS LOOKS TO GET GOING IN
THE FAR WEST LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING...TOWARD THE I29
CORRIDOR TOWARD MIDNIGHT...SW MN BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z. APPEARS THAT
GUSTY 20 TO 35 MPH WIND CAN BE EXPECTED AFTER INITIAL PRESSURE RISE
SURGE...AND MORE TYPICAL THROUGH THE EAST BY MONDAY AS THE CYCLONE
STRENGTHENS TO THE EAST. CONTINUED CURRENT ADVISORY...BUT DID EXTEND
THE END TIME TO COVER THE STRONGER WINDS. ADDITIONAL AREA WAS ADDED
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FOR THE SNOW/WIND THREAT...BUT
STARTED AS ONE GROUP RATHER THAN PIECEMEAL TO KEEP IT SIMPLE...AND
TO PICK UP ANY LINGERING FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE FAR EAST.
ON MONDAY...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SOMEWHAT OUTSIDE ANY LINGERING
SNOWFALL WHICH IS LIMITED TO THE FAR EASTERN AREA AS UPPER LOW
DEVELOPS TO THE EAST. THIS DEVELOPMENT WILL KEEP THE GRADIENT
HOLDING ON STRONG THROUGH SW MN AND INTO NW IA THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDDAY IF NOT MID AFTERNOON. FOR THIS REASON...CONTINUED ADVISORY TO
COVER THE BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL IN THE EASTERN GROUP. TEMPERATURES
LIKELY TO STRUGGLE WITH FRESH SNOW AND MIXED START...SO DO NOT LOOK
FOR MORE THAN A 4-6 DEGREE CLIMB AS SURFACE RIDGE FROM WEST FINALLY
STARTS TO DROP OFF THE WINDS IN THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON.
/CHAPMAN
BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS TAPER OFF BY MONDAY NIGHT...AS THE LOW MOVES
WELL EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SLIPS INTO
THE REGION. WITH A FRESH SNOWPACK...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD PLUMMET OVERNIGHT. CONTINUED TO
GO WELL BELOW GUIDANCE WHICH IS NOTORIOUS FOR BEING TOO WARM IN
THESE EVENTS. LOWS SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER TEENS AND SINGLE
DIGITS BELOW ZERO.
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD ON TUESDAY WHILE THE UPPER FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL. MODEST WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO IMPROVE INTO THE 20S TO LOWER 30S. A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL WAVE SLIDES THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LITTLE
IMPACT OTHER THAN AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS.
THE MILDER PATTERN CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY WITH WEST AND SOUTHWEST
WINDS AND LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING. EVEN WITH
925 MB TEMPERATURES AS WARM AS +6 OR +8C...IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO
MIX TO THE SURFACE WITH THE RECENT SNOWPACK IN PLACE. HOWEVER...DO
EXPECT HIGHS TO RISE BACK ABOVE AVERAGE AND HOVER IN THE LOWER TO
MID 30S FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. AGAIN...WENT A BIT BELOW
GUIDANCE NUMBERS DURING THE PERIOD WITH THIS IN MIND. A MID LEVEL
WAVE SLIPS ACROSS THE MISSOURI RIVER AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY WITH MEAGER MOISTURE AND LIFT. COULD SQUEEZE OUT A LITTLE
LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTH SO WILL LEAVE MENTION OF A
SLIGHT CHANCE. A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR WILL FOLLOW FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS.
&
.AVIATION.../FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE/
MESSY WINTRY SCENARIO CONTINUES FOR THIS TAF ISSUANCE. OF IMMEDIATE
CONCERN IS THE ICING THREAT...AND THIS LOOKS TO CONTINUE AT THE
SURFACE FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 60 IN
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
SHALLOW MOISTURE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WEST TO THE JAMES VALLEY AT
LATE MORNING...WITH CEILINGS IN THE IFR TO LIFR RANGE...AS WELL FOR
VISIBILITIES ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 29 AREA. AREA OF
PRECIPITATION APPROACHING FROM THE WEST FORCED BY APPROACHING LARGE
SCALE SYSTEM LIKELY HAS ALMOST UNMENTIONABLE WINDOW FOR ANYTHING
OTHER THAN SNOW AS TEMPERATURES COOLING ALOFT ALONG WITH EVAPORATIVE
IMPACTS ABOVE THE SHALLOW MOIST LAYER REMOVE THE 25-50 HPA OF
PROFILE ABOVE FREEZING ON THE MORNING ABR/BIS RAOBS. SNOW BAND WILL
THEN WORK EASTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT...AND FEATURE WIDESPREAD 1/2 TO
1SM VISIBILITIES FOR SEVERAL HOURS. OF ADDED CONCERN WILL BE THE
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONTAL ZONE...WHICH
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO PRODUCE MVFR CONDITIONS IN BLOWING SNOW ON
THE AVERAGE INTO MONDAY MIDDAY ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 29...AND
LIKELY PERIODS OF IFR OR WORSE VISIBILITIES HEADING TOWARD SW MN AND
THE IOWA GREAT LAKES... ESPECIALLY AS SNOW CONTINUES IN THOSE AREA
INTO MID MORNING. /CHAPMAN
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR IAZ001>003-
012>014-020>022-031-032.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR MNZ071-072-
080-081-089-090-097-098.
NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR NEZ013-014.
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR SDZ056-062-
066-067-069>071.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST MONDAY FOR SDZ038-050-
052-053-057>060-063>065-068.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR SDZ039-040-
054-055-061.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ABERDEEN SD
1140 PM CST SAT JAN 21 2012
.UPDATE...
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE.
WITH NEW 00Z NAM AND LAST COUPLE RUNS OF THE HRRR POINTING TOWARD
MORE PCPN FOR SOUTHERN COUNTIES...DECIDED TO ADD THEM TO THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. LOOKS LIKE MORE SNOW VS EARLIER
PREDICTIONS...AND BLOWING SNOW COULD BE AN ISSUE ON SUNDAY. UPDATES
ALREADY ISSUED.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
BLOWING SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON AS GUSTY SOUTH WINDS OF 20 TO 35 MPH ARE BEING OBSERVED.
AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA AS WELL SO
WILL KEEP MENTION OF THESE ELEMENTS IN GRIDS THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. BREEZY SOUTH WINDS PERSIST OVER
THE EASTERN COUNTIES FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THE NIGHT SO OPTED TO
KEEP MENTION OF BLOWING SNOW IN THE GRIDS.
FOCUS REMAINS ON THE STORM SYSTEM IMPACTING THE AREA TONIGHT
THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT. STILL APPEARS THREAT IS THERE FOR FREEZING
RAIN AND SLEET AHEAD OF THE LOW OVERNIGHT...BUT MODELS BACKING OFF
A BIT AND KEEPING THINGS FURTHER NORTH. DO NOT EXPECT MAJOR ICE
ACCUMS BUT ANYWHERE THAT DOES SEE FREEZING RAIN MAY RECEIVE A FEW
HUNDREDTHS ICE ACCUMULATION. MODELS BEGINNING TO LATCH ONTO A
SOLUTION NOW WHICH HIGHLIGHTS THE WRAP AROUND DEFORMATION SNOWFALL
ON SUNDAY. LOOKS LIKE MUCH OF THE AREA WILL RECEIVE ABOUT 2 TO 4
INCHES OF SNOWFALL WITH A FEW HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. MODELS
TRYING TO STRENGTHEN THINGS A BIT IN REGARDS TO SNOWFALL TOMORROW.
A DECENT LITTLE SYSTEM SLIDING THROUGH IT APPEARS. NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA...THEN FINALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL CREATE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW WITH
REDUCED VSBYS. WILL LET THE WINTER WX ADVISORY RIDE AS IS FOR NOW
AND MID SHIFT MAY NEED TO CONSIDER ADDING THE SOUTHWEST CWA.
APPEARS AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHTER IN THIS AREA THOUGH. WINDS MAY
REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA TOMORROW AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA
SO ANOTHER THING TO CONSIDER. THE ADVISORY WINDS CAN BE INCLUDED
IN THE CURRENT WSW...BUT IF THE SOUTHWEST CWA IS LEFT OUT OF THE
WSW...ONE MAY CONSIDER THROWING THEM INTO A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE
AFTERNOON TOMORROW AND MENTION BLOWING SNOW ISSUES.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
THE OPERATIONAL MODELS AND GFS ENSEMBLES SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE LONG TERM. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BE
SITUATED OFF THE CA COAST WITH FAST WESTERLY FLOW COMING OFF THE
PACIFIC ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND ACROSS OUR REGION. THIS MEANS WE
WILL HAVE ABOVE TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AGAIN ACROSS THE
CWA FOR THE LONG TERM. THE ONLY THING THAT WILL AFFECT THE WARM UP
THIS TIME AROUND WILL BE THE EXTENSIVE SNOW COVER IN PLACE ACROSS
THE REGION. THUS...TEMPERATURES MAY NOT BE QUITE AS WARM.
OTHERWISE...IT IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY WITH SEVERAL FAST MOVING
SHORT WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WITH LITTLE MOISTURE
AVAILABLE.
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS
AT KABR/KATY A MIX OF MVFR/VFR CIGS WILL OCCUR THROUGH MOST OF
THE NIGHT. VSBYS WILL FAVOR VFR/MVFR THROUGH THE NIGHT. MOST OF
THE PRECIPITATION AT THESE TWO TAF SITES MAY HOLD OFF TILL LATE NIGHT.
AT KPIR/KMBG VFR CIGS AND VSBYS SHOULD GRADUALLY LOWER TOWARD
IFR/MVFR OVERNIGHT AS PCPN GRADUALLY SPREADS TOWARD THE MO RVR
VALLEY. A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND/OR SLEET IS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT...TURNING TO ALL SNOW ON SUNDAY.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ SUNDAY
NIGHT FOR BROWN-BUFFALO-CAMPBELL-CORSON-DEWEY-EDMUNDS-FAULK-
HAND-HUGHES-HYDE-JONES-LYMAN-MCPHERSON-POTTER-STANLEY-SULLY-
WALWORTH.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST SUNDAY
NIGHT FOR CLARK-CODINGTON-DAY-DEUEL-GRANT-HAMLIN-MARSHALL-
ROBERTS-SPINK.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST SUNDAY
NIGHT FOR BIG STONE-TRAVERSE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...TDK
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NWS RAPID CITY SD
1016 PM MST SAT JAN 21 2012
.AVIATION...06Z TAFS
AREA OF -RA/-FZRA LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO NW SD. -RA/FZRA WILL
TRANSITION TO SNOW OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WIDESPREAD SNOW
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING/NORTHERN BLACK
HILLS/NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA....WITH SNOW SPREADING INTO CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS
THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT...VERY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON
THE PLAINS NORTH AND EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS...WITH 50-55KT GUSTS
LIKELY AT KRAP. COMBINATION OF WIND AND SNOW WILL RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR VSBY. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 736 PM MST SAT JAN 21 2012/
DISCUSSION...CURRENT SURFACE MAP SHOWS ELONGATED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO. AREA OF
LIGHT RAIN/FREEZING RAIN SPREADING NORTHWARD EAST AND NORTH OF THE
BLACK HILLS. SURFACE TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA
REMAIN BELOW FREEZING. SEVERAL FORECAST CHALLENGES OVERNIGHT.
00Z KUNR/KBIS SOUNDINGS AND 00Z RUC SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MAINLY
FREEZING RAIN THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. AS
STRONGER LIFT SPREADS ACROSS THIS AREA AROUND 06Z...SUFFICIENT
COOLING IN THE MID LEVELS WILL ALLOW FOR TRANSITION TO SNOW.
PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN A LITTLE SLOWER TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHEAST
WYOMING AND FAR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING. 00Z RUC/NAM
SHOW UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE INCREASING THROUGH 06Z WITH DECENT JET
COUPLING. 18Z NAM/GFS AND 00Z RUC STILL MAINTAIN HIGHEST SNOW
AMOUNTS ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING/NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. 00Z NAM
COMING IN...AND SHIFTS HIGHER AMOUNTS INTO SOUTHWEST THROUGH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. WILL NOT MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO SNOW
AMOUNTS AT THIS TIME.
STRONG WINDS STILL ON TRACK FOR LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. 00Z
NAM/00Z RUC STILL SHOWING 40-50KT BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ACROSS THE
PLAINS OF WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. MOMENTUM TRANSFER ON FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST 55KT GUSTS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FOR THE RAPID
CITY AREA.
OVERALL...CURRENT HEADLINES LOOK GOOD. SNOW WILL TAKE A LITTLE BIT
LONGER TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS...BUT WILL NOT ADJUST THE
TIMING OF THE WARNING AT THIS TIME.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM MST SAT JAN 21 2012/
DISCUSSION...22Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE WARM FRONT CURRENTLY
EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA TO NORTH OF THE BLACK
HILLS...THEN TOWARD SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. TEMPERATURES TO THE
NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT ARE STILL IN THE MID 20S...WITH 40S AND
50S SOUTH OF THE FRONT. THE SFC LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL DROP INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA BY 12Z SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONT AND GUSTY WINDS DUE TO THE TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT.
FOR TONIGHT...A RELATIVELY STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT WITH THE 700MB LOW PROGGED TO TRACK FROM JUST NORTH OF THE
BLACK HILLS EASTWARD TONIGHT. ISENTROPIC LIFT AND FRONTOGENESIS
SHOULD PLACE THE BAND OF HEAVIEST SNOW ACROSS CAMPBELL COUNTY IN
NORTHEASTERN WYOMING TO THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS AND THEN
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WITH 3-5 INCHES OF
SNOW THROUGH THAT AREA. DUE TO UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT HAVE PLACED 5 TO
8 INCH SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE FAVORED AREAS OF THE NORTHERN BLACK
HILLS. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A VERY SHALLOW COLD LAYER OVER
NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WHICH WILL LEAD TO THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN THERE TONIGHT. WINDS BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO REACH HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA IN THE
RAPID CITY AREA AROUND 09Z. AFTER A SLIGHT LULL IN THE MORNING...WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO NEAR WARNING CRITERIA AGAIN ON SUNDAY ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN AND WEST CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AS SUBSIDENCE TAKES
OVER. DUE TO THE STRONG WINDS COMBINED WITH THE EXPECTED SNOWFALL
AND MIXED PRECIP HAVE ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING OVER
NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIGHTER OVER
NORTHEASTERN WYOMING SO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY SHOULD SUFFICE
THERE. MESO MODELS SHOW A DOWNSLOPE HOLE IN THE PRECIPITATION OVER
THE RAPID CITY AREA AND THE ADJACENT PLAINS SO HAVE DECIDED TO
ISSUED A HIGH WIND WARNING OVER THOSE AREAS WITH A MENTION OF SOME
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.
THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ON SUNDAY BUT
THE GUSTY WINDS AND AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY SO WILL KEEP THE HIGHLIGHTS GOING THROUGH SUNDAY.
DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH DECREASING WIND AND CLOUDS EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS.
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY...
WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 30S. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS A
WEAK DISTURBANCE CROSSES MT AND WY. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW
MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY FOR NORTHEASTERN WY AND THE BLACK
HILLS.
EXTENDED...MILDER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE
MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK AS WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT REMAINS
OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THE WARMEST DAYS EXPECTED TO BE WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL PASS THROUGH THE
REGION DURING THIS TIME...BRINGING SOME CLOUDINESS...CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS...AND OCCASIONAL GUSTY WINDS...MAINLY TO WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA. TIMING OF THESE WAVES IS STILL RATHER UNCERTAIN IN THIS
FLOW...BUT HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT FOR NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST SUNDAY FOR BUTTE-CENTRAL
BLACK HILLS-HARDING-NORTHERN BLACK HILLS-NORTHERN FOOT
HILLS-NORTHERN MEADE CO PLAINS-PERKINS-SOUTHERN MEADE CO
PLAINS-STURGIS/PIEDMONT FOOT HILLS.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MST /7 PM CST/ SUNDAY FOR BENNETT-
MELLETTE-TODD-TRIPP.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MST SUNDAY FOR HAAKON-JACKSON-
SHANNON.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST SUNDAY FOR CUSTER CO PLAINS-
HERMOSA FOOT HILLS-PENNINGTON CO PLAINS-RAPID CITY.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MST SUNDAY FOR ZIEBACH.
WY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST SUNDAY FOR NORTHEASTERN
CROOK-WYOMING BLACK HILLS.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST SUNDAY FOR NORTHERN
CAMPBELL-SOUTHERN CAMPBELL-WESTERN CROOK-WESTON.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....WFO UNR
AVIATION...07
YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
832 PM CST MON JAN 23 2012
.SHORT TERM...UPDATE
832 PM CST MON JAN 23 2012
HAVE MADE SOME UPDATES TO THE FORECAST FOR SKY CONDITIONS AND
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT AS A STRATUS DECK APPEARS TO BE HOLDING ON
TIGHT ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. LITTLE PROGRESS
HAS BEEN MADE ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STRATUS ACROSS THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ANY HOLES BREAKING INTO
THE THIN STRATUS DECK THROUGHOUT THE REGION. THE CLEARING ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE STRATUS APPEARS TO BE TIED TO THE SURFACE/LOW
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WHICH LOOKS LIKE IT WILL GET INTO SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA/NORTHEAST IOWA SOMETIME AFTER 12Z. THEREFORE...HAVE
SLOWED DOWN THE CLEARING A BIT AND KEPT TEMPERATURES UP ABOUT 5
DEGREES FOR THE OVERNIGHT LOWS DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER. WITH THE
23.18Z NAM AND 24.01Z RUC SOUNDINGS SHOWING AN INVERSION FROM
950MB UP TO 750MB INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON...AM NOT ENTIRELY
CONVINCED THAT SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT BY AFTERNOON DESPITE THE
NAM/RUC SHOWING FAIRLY QUICK DRYING OUT OF THE LOW LEVELS TUESDAY
MORNING.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
230 PM CST MON JAN 23 2012
QUIET WEATHER TO CONTINUE INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS WELL. ZONAL
FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK WHEN ALL THE
MODELS THEN SUGGEST A CUT OFF LOW SHOULD FORM SOME WHERE BETWEEN
HUDSON BAY AND THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES PLACING THE UPPER MIDWEST
ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE DEVELOPING LONG WAVE TROUGH. MODELS
DIFFER ON HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THIS SYSTEM
DEVELOPS. THE 23.12Z GFS IS ALMOST COMPLETELY DRY...THE 23.12Z
ECMWF WAS MUCH STRONGER WITH THE SURFACE LOW AND SHOWS SOME DECENT
PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...WHILE THE 23.12Z GEM SPLIT
THE DIFFERENCE WITH MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION OVER THE EASTERN
PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. FOR NOW...WILL USE THE MODEL CONSENSUS
GRIDS WHICH SHOW A LOW CHANCE OF SOME PRECIPITATION FOR FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
537 PM CST MON JAN 23 2012
THE MAIN FOCUS IS ON THE MVFR STRATUS DECK THAT COVERS THE ENTIRE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BACK INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS.
CEILINGS ARE GENERALLY IN THE 1KFT TO 3KFT RANGE THOUGH RST AND A
FEW OTHER SITES IN SOUTHERN MINNESOTA HAVE BRIEFLY DROPPED TO IFR
AT TIMES. CONFIDENCE IS NOT THAT GREAT IN WHEN THIS STRATUS DECK
WILL CLEAR OUT AS THE 23.21Z RUC SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION
HOLDING ON THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH SOME MOISTURE REMAINING TRAPPED
UNDER IT. THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STRATUS BEGINS WHERE THE SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS CURRENTLY SITS AND IS NOT FORECAST MOVE INTO THE REGION
UNTIL TOMORROW AFTERNOON. DESPITE THIS...THE 23.18Z NAM AND 23.21Z
RUC SHOW SOME DRIER AIR WRAPPING INTO THE STRATUS AND CLEARING OUT
TOMORROW MORNING. FOR NOW...HAVE GONE WITH THIS FORECAST OF
CLEARING AT RST AROUND 12Z AND LSE AROUND 16Z...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT THOSE TIMINGS WILL NEED TO BE PUSHED BACK UNTIL THE AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND BECOME LESS THAN
10KTS AS THE RIDGE MOVES IN. THIS WILL LESSEN THE THREAT OF
BLOWING SNOW AT RST WHERE VISIBILITY HAS BEEN DOWN BETWEEN 4-6SM.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
230 PM CST MON JAN 23 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HALBACH
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...HALBACH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
537 PM CST MON JAN 23 2012
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
230 PM CST MON JAN 23 2012
SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE EASTERN U.P. OF MICHIGAN. HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM MANITOBA
SOUTH INTO OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS.
RADAR TRENDS SHOW A PRETTY RAPID DECREASE IN THE COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OF THE REMAINING SNOW AND THE LAST OF THE ACCUMULATING
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF TAYLOR COUNTY YET THIS AFTERNOON.
STILL EXPECT TO SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES HANG ON INTO THE
EVENING...BUT WITH THE ACCUMULATING SNOWS DONE...WILL CANCEL THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY BETWEEN 3 AND 4 PM WITH THE NEW FORECAST
PACKAGE.
SATELLITE SHOWING LOTS OF CLOUDS IN THE CYCLONIC WRAP AROUND FLOW
FROM THE SURFACE LOW. THESE EXTEND WELL WEST ACROSS MINNESOTA AND
DO NOT DISSIPATE UNTIL THE RIDGE AXIS BECOMES THE DOMINANT SURFACE
FEATURE. THE 23.12Z NAM 925 MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY FIELD IS MATCHING
UP WELL WITH THE CLOUDS AT THIS TIME AND IT WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE
ENTIRE AREA WILL REMAIN CLOUDY THROUGH MIDNIGHT AND THEN THE
WESTERN SECTIONS SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING OVERNIGHT. HAVE SLOWED
DOWN THE CLEARING TREND FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TO REFLECT
THESE TRENDS. AS THE WINDS DIE DOWN AND THE SKIES CLEAR LATE
ACROSS THE WEST...TEMPERATURES COULD DROP PRETTY QUICKLY AND
BOTTOM OUT AROUND 5 ABOVE OR SO. CLOUDS SHOULD HELP HOLD THE REST
OF THE AREA UP AROUND 10.
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE RATHER QUIET. THE SURFACE
HIGH WILL SET UP OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE MOVING OFF WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER TUESDAY NIGHT.
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS ON THE 280-285K ISENTROPIC SURFACES
REMAIN EXTREMELY HIGH...SO ONLY EXPECTING SOME CLOUDS TO DEVELOP
FROM THIS WAVE AND NO PRECIPITATION.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
230 PM CST MON JAN 23 2012
QUIET WEATHER TO CONTINUE INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS WELL. ZONAL
FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK WHEN ALL THE
MODELS THEN SUGGEST A CUT OFF LOW SHOULD FORM SOME WHERE BETWEEN
HUDSON BAY AND THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES PLACING THE UPPER MIDWEST
ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE DEVELOPING LONG WAVE TROUGH. MODELS
DIFFER ON HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THIS SYSTEM
DEVELOPS. THE 23.12Z GFS IS ALMOST COMPLETELY DRY...THE 23.12Z
ECMWF WAS MUCH STRONGER WITH THE SURFACE LOW AND SHOWS SOME DECENT
PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...WHILE THE 23.12Z GEM SPLIT
THE DIFFERENCE WITH MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION OVER THE EASTERN
PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. FOR NOW...WILL USE THE MODEL CONSENSUS
GRIDS WHICH SHOW A LOW CHANCE OF SOME PRECIPITATION FOR FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
537 PM CST MON JAN 23 2012
THE MAIN FOCUS IS ON THE MVFR STRATUS DECK THAT COVERS THE ENTIRE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BACK INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS.
CEILINGS ARE GENERALLY IN THE 1KFT TO 3KFT RANGE THOUGH RST AND A
FEW OTHER SITES IN SOUTHERN MINNESOTA HAVE BRIEFLY DROPPED TO IFR
AT TIMES. CONFIDENCE IS NOT THAT GREAT IN WHEN THIS STRATUS DECK
WILL CLEAR OUT AS THE 23.21Z RUC SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION
HOLDING ON THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH SOME MOISTURE REMAINING TRAPPED
UNDER IT. THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STRATUS BEGINS WHERE THE SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS CURRENTLY SITS AND IS NOT FORECAST MOVE INTO THE REGION
UNTIL TOMORROW AFTERNOON. DESPITE THIS...THE 23.18Z NAM AND 23.21Z
RUC SHOW SOME DRIER AIR WRAPPING INTO THE STRATUS AND CLEARING OUT
TOMORROW MORNING. FOR NOW...HAVE GONE WITH THIS FORECAST OF
CLEARING AT RST AROUND 12Z AND LSE AROUND 16Z...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT THOSE TIMINGS WILL NEED TO BE PUSHED BACK UNTIL THE AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND BECOME LESS THAN
10KTS AS THE RIDGE MOVES IN. THIS WILL LESSEN THE THREAT OF
BLOWING SNOW AT RST WHERE VISIBILITY HAS BEEN DOWN BETWEEN 4-6SM.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
230 PM CST MON JAN 23 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...HALBACH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1135 AM CST SUN JAN 22 2012
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
230 AM CST SUN JAN 22 2012
FREEZING DRIZZLE IS THE FORECAST FOCUS TODAY/TONIGHT...WITH A NEED
FOR HEADLINES.
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY POINTED TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MOVING EAST OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE TROUGH WILL
TRACK OVER THE PLAINS...THEN CURVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES FOR TONIGHT/MON MORNING. THIS HAS BEEN A CONSISTENT SIGNAL IN
THE MODELS...ALTHOUGH THE TIMING AND POSITION OF THE SYSTEM HAS NOT.
HOWEVER...22.00Z RUNS STARTING TO SHOW MORE AGREEMENT WITH THE EC
AND GEM...DRIVING THE SYSTEM/S SFC LOW TO LOT BY 12Z SUN...WHILE THE
GFS IS SHIFTED A BIT FARTHER NORTH INTO SOUTHCENTRAL WI. THE NAM HAS
BEEN THE ODD MODEL OUT...BUT ITS RECENT RUN IS STARTING TO TREND
TOWARD THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS...ALTHOUGH STILL OVER NORTHERN WI BY 12Z
MON. GIVEN THE CONSISTENCY OF THE EC...WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THIS
SOLUTION...BLENDING IN THE GEM/GFS.
MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE.
NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST X-SECTIONS AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW
ONLY A LOW SATURATION IN PLACE INTO THIS EVENING...GENERALLY BELOW
850 MB. GOOD LOW LEVEL WARMING IN THE 925-850 MB LAYER ALONG WITH
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ALONG THE 275-290 K SFCS. RUC13 BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SHOW A DECENT AMOUNT OF UPWARD OMEGA IN THE SATURATED LAYER THROUGH
THIS EVENING WHILE THE X-SECTIONS VIA THE GFS40 AND RUC13 POINT TO
SOME FRONTOGENETIC LIFT ALONG THE TOP OF THE SATURATED LAYER. ALL
MODELS SHOW SOME LIGHT QPF DEVELOPING BY AT LEAST THE AFTERNOON FOR
THE FORECAST AREA....PERSISTING INTO THE EVENING AND THEN INCREASING
TONIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH/SFC LOW MOVES IN. BEFORE THAT
THOUGH...THE EXPECTED LOW CLOUDS WILL LACK ANY ICE...THUS MAKING ANY
PCPN THE LIFT CAN SQUEEZE OUT OF THEM LIQUID...AND EITHER FREEZING
DRIZZLE OR DRIZZLE...SFC TEMP DEPENDENT. THAT SAID...WITH TEMPS
EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE EARLY EVENING THANKS TO THE STRONG WARM
AIR ADVECTIVE SIGNAL...GROUND TEMPS WILL LIKELY STILL STAY BELOW
FREEZING DUE TO THE SEVERAL DAYS OF COLD CONDITIONS. SO...FREEZING
COULD STILL RESULT ON UNTREATED ROADS AND OTHER EXPOSED SFCS EVEN IF
THE AIR TEMP RISES ABOVE FREEZING.
WITH ALL THIS IN MIND...FEEL THE THREAT FOR AREAS OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE IS HIGH ENOUGH FOR A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING. SOUNDINGS AND X-SECTIONS DON/T REALLY DISCRIMINATE TOO MUCH
BETWEEN WHERE THE CHANCES WOULD BE BEST...SO WILL GO WITH THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA. THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING WOULD APPEAR TO BE
THE MAIN THREAT TIME...BUT CAN/T RULE OUT PERIODS OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE THIS MORNING...SO WILL START IT EARLY.
THE SATURATION DEEPENS OVERNIGHT ENOUGH THAT ICE WOULD BE INTRODUCED
INTO THE CLOUD...AND SNOW BECOMES THE PCPN TYPE. THIS CORRESPONDS
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/SFC LOW...AND BETTER
UPPER LEVEL FORCING. QPF INCREASES IN THE MODELS AS A RESULT...AND
SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE PROBABLE. WHILE ITS BELIEVED THE
EC HAS THE BEST HANDLE ON THIS SYSTEM AT THIS TIME...ITS DEFORMATION
PCPN REGION LIES ON TOP OF ITS SFC LOW. MEANWHILE THE GFS AND GEM IS
DISPLACED A BIT MORE NORTH-WEST OF THE LOW TRACK...AND SEEMS MORE
REASONABLE. WILL TREND THE SNOW CHANCES THIS WAY OVERNIGHT. WILL GO
WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS
MORE LIKELY NORTH OF I-94.
SNOW WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTHEAST AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SHIFTS INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA. IT WILL BE A WINDY DAY WITH AN
INCREASING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT POST THE LOW. IN ADDITION...COLD
AIR ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN STEADY OF SLOWLY FALLING TEMPERATURES.
MONDAY/S HIGH WILL LIKELY BE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
230 AM CST SUN JAN 22 2012
FAIRLY ACTIVE NEARLY ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL PERSIST INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND...SPINNING SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ACROSS THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. HOWEVER...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
KEEP THE BULK OF ANY ASSOCIATED PCPN ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION. SO OVERALL...IT LOOKS FAIRLY DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
THE BETTER...ALBEIT SMALL SNOW CHANCES...ACROSS THE NORTH.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE AT OR ABOVE THE SEASONABLE NORMALS.
&&
.AVIATION...TONIGHT AND MONDAY
1135 AM CST SUN JAN 22 2012
A STRONG AND MOIST SFC TO MID LEVEL LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD/
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT/MON. SFC-850MB
MOISTURE...LOW CLOUDS/BR AND PATCHY -FZDZ WITH MAINLY IFR CIGS/VSBYS
HAVE ALREADY SPREAD ACROSS THE TAF SITES. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THRU THIS EVENING AS INCREASING MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE
PUSHED NORTH INTO THE AREA. THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL
PASS AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH BROAD/DEEP LIFT COOLING THE COLUMN AND
CHANGING THE PRECIP TO SNOW. MAINLY IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SNOW/BR WILL
CONTINUE AT THE TAF SITES THRU MON MORNING. FCST MODELS DIFFER ON
THE DETAILS/AMOUNTS BUT APPEARS SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL OCCUR AT
THE TAF SITES IN THE 09-18Z TIME-FRAME...IMPACTING RUNWAYS AND
AIRPORT OPS. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST AS WELL MON
MORNING AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND LIFT NORTH ACROSS EASTERN
WI...CREATING SOME BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW AT SITES LIKE KRST. THE LOW
WILL LIFT INTO THE MI U.P. MON AFTERNOON...WITH THE SNOW DIMINISHING
AND VSBYS IMPROVING TO MVFR THRU MON AFTERNOON. WITH ABUNDANT
MOISTURE WRAPPED AROUND THE LOW...IFR CIGS LOOK TO PERSIST INTO MON
NIGHT.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
230 AM CST SUN JAN 22 2012
WI...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT CST
TONIGHT FOR WIZ017-029-032>034-041>044-053>055-061.
MN...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT CST
TONIGHT FOR MNZ079-086>088-094>096.
IA...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT CST
TONIGHT FOR IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION.....RRS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
541 AM CST SUN JAN 22 2012
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
230 AM CST SUN JAN 22 2012
FREEZING DRIZZLE IS THE FORECAST FOCUS TODAY/TONIGHT...WITH A NEED
FOR HEADLINES.
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY POINTED TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MOVING EAST OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE TROUGH WILL
TRACK OVER THE PLAINS...THEN CURVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES FOR TONIGHT/MON MORNING. THIS HAS BEEN A CONSISTENT SIGNAL IN
THE MODELS...ALTHOUGH THE TIMING AND POSITION OF THE SYSTEM HAS NOT.
HOWEVER...22.00Z RUNS STARTING TO SHOW MORE AGREEMENT WITH THE EC
AND GEM...DRIVING THE SYSTEM/S SFC LOW TO LOT BY 12Z SUN...WHILE THE
GFS IS SHIFTED A BIT FARTHER NORTH INTO SOUTHCENTRAL WI. THE NAM HAS
BEEN THE ODD MODEL OUT...BUT ITS RECENT RUN IS STARTING TO TREND
TOWARD THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS...ALTHOUGH STILL OVER NORTHERN WI BY 12Z
MON. GIVEN THE CONSISTENCY OF THE EC...WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THIS
SOLUTION...BLENDING IN THE GEM/GFS.
MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE.
NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST X-SECTIONS AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW
ONLY A LOW SATURATION IN PLACE INTO THIS EVENING...GENERALLY BELOW
850 MB. GOOD LOW LEVEL WARMING IN THE 925-850 MB LAYER ALONG WITH
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ALONG THE 275-290 K SFCS. RUC13 BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SHOW A DECENT AMOUNT OF UPWARD OMEGA IN THE SATURATED LAYER THROUGH
THIS EVENING WHILE THE X-SECTIONS VIA THE GFS40 AND RUC13 POINT TO
SOME FRONTOGENETIC LIFT ALONG THE TOP OF THE SATURATED LAYER. ALL
MODELS SHOW SOME LIGHT QPF DEVELOPING BY AT LEAST THE AFTERNOON FOR
THE FORECAST AREA....PERSISTING INTO THE EVENING AND THEN INCREASING
TONIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH/SFC LOW MOVES IN. BEFORE THAT
THOUGH...THE EXPECTED LOW CLOUDS WILL LACK ANY ICE...THUS MAKING ANY
PCPN THE LIFT CAN SQUEEZE OUT OF THEM LIQUID...AND EITHER FREEZING
DRIZZLE OR DRIZZLE...SFC TEMP DEPENDENT. THAT SAID...WITH TEMPS
EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE EARLY EVENING THANKS TO THE STRONG WARM
AIR ADVECTIVE SIGNAL...GROUND TEMPS WILL LIKELY STILL STAY BELOW
FREEZING DUE TO THE SEVERAL DAYS OF COLD CONDITIONS. SO...FREEZING
COULD STILL RESULT ON UNTREATED ROADS AND OTHER EXPOSED SFCS EVEN IF
THE AIR TEMP RISES ABOVE FREEZING.
WITH ALL THIS IN MIND...FEEL THE THREAT FOR AREAS OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE IS HIGH ENOUGH FOR A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING. SOUNDINGS AND X-SECTIONS DON/T REALLY DISCRIMINATE TOO MUCH
BETWEEN WHERE THE CHANCES WOULD BE BEST...SO WILL GO WITH THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA. THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING WOULD APPEAR TO BE
THE MAIN THREAT TIME...BUT CAN/T RULE OUT PERIODS OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE THIS MORNING...SO WILL START IT EARLY.
THE SATURATION DEEPENS OVERNIGHT ENOUGH THAT ICE WOULD BE INTRODUCED
INTO THE CLOUD...AND SNOW BECOMES THE PCPN TYPE. THIS CORRESPONDS
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/SFC LOW...AND BETTER
UPPER LEVEL FORCING. QPF INCREASES IN THE MODELS AS A RESULT...AND
SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE PROBABLE. WHILE ITS BELIEVED THE
EC HAS THE BEST HANDLE ON THIS SYSTEM AT THIS TIME...ITS DEFORMATION
PCPN REGION LIES ON TOP OF ITS SFC LOW. MEANWHILE THE GFS AND GEM IS
DISPLACED A BIT MORE NORTH-WEST OF THE LOW TRACK...AND SEEMS MORE
REASONABLE. WILL TREND THE SNOW CHANCES THIS WAY OVERNIGHT. WILL GO
WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS
MORE LIKELY NORTH OF I-94.
SNOW WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTHEAST AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SHIFTS INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA. IT WILL BE A WINDY DAY WITH AN
INCREASING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT POST THE LOW. IN ADDITION...COLD
AIR ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN STEADY OF SLOWLY FALLING TEMPERATURES.
MONDAY/S HIGH WILL LIKELY BE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
230 AM CST SUN JAN 22 2012
FAIRLY ACTIVE NEARLY ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL PERSIST INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND...SPINNING SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ACROSS THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. HOWEVER...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
KEEP THE BULK OF ANY ASSOCIATED PCPN ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION. SO OVERALL...IT LOOKS FAIRLY DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
THE BETTER...ALBEIT SMALL SNOW CHANCES...ACROSS THE NORTH.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE AT OR ABOVE THE SEASONABLE NORMALS.
&&
.AVIATION...TODAY AND TONIGHT
541 AM CST SUN JAN 22 2012
STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHEAST FLOW WAS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD
OF STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS. THIS WAS ADVECTING
MOISTURE AND LOW-LEVEL MVFR/IFR STRATUS AND FOG INTO THE AREA. AS
THIS FLOW CONTINUES THIS MORNING...EXPECTING DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE TO
BECOME WIDESPREAD ALONG WITH CIG/VIS LOWERING INTO IFR/LIFR
CATEGORY. LOOK FOR THESE CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH TODAY AND
INTO THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TOWARD NORTHEAST
IA/SOUTHERN WI. AS THE LOW PULLS FARTHER EAST INTO EASTERN WI
AFTER MIDNIGHT...LOOK FOR THE PRECIPITATION TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW
WITH CIGS/VIS REMAINING IN IFR/LIFR CATEGORY. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS
AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE WITH
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT TO AROUND SUNRISE OF ABOUT AN
INCH. BLUSTERY WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BEE SEEN ON MONDAY AS THE
DEEPENING LOW PULLS INTO UPPER MICHIGAN. ACCUMULATING SNOW STILL
LIKELY INTO MONDAY MORNING BEHIND THE LOW IN ADDITION TO THE
WIND. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY FOR FLIGHT OPERATION
IMPACTS.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
230 AM CST SUN JAN 22 2012
WI...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT CST
TONIGHT FOR WIZ017-029-032>034-041>044-053>055-061.
MN...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT CST
TONIGHT FOR MNZ079-086>088-094>096.
IA...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT CST
TONIGHT FOR IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM... RIECK
LONG TERM.... RIECK
AVIATION...DAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
230 AM CST SUN JAN 22 2012
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
230 AM CST SUN JAN 22 2012
FREEZING DRIZZLE IS THE FORECAST FOCUS TODAY/TONIGHT...WITH A NEED
FOR HEADLINES.
LATEST WATERVAPOR IMAGERY POINTED TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MOVING EAST OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE TROUGH WILL
TRACK OVER THE PLAINS...THEN CURVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES FOR TONIGHT/MON MORNING. THIS HAS BEEN A CONSISTENT SIGNAL IN
THE MODELS...ALTHOUGH THE TIMING AND POSITION OF THE SYSTEM HAS NOT.
HOWEVER...22.00Z RUNS STARTING TO SHOW MORE AGREEMENT WITH THE EC
AND GEM...DRIVING THE SYSTEM/S SFC LOW TO LOT BY 12Z SUN...WHILE THE
GFS IS SHIFTED A BIT FARTHER NORTH INTO SOUTHCENTRAL WI. THE NAM HAS
BEEN THE ODD MODEL OUT...BUT ITS RECENT RUN IS STARTING TO TREND
TOWARD THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS...ALTHOUGH STILL OVER NORTHERN WI BY 12Z
MON. GIVEN THE CONSISTENCY OF THE EC...WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THIS
SOLUTION...BLENDING IN THE GEM/GFS.
MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE.
NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST X-SECTIONS AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW
ONLY A LOW SATURATION IN PLACE INTO THIS EVENING...GENERALLY BELOW
850 MB. GOOD LOW LEVEL WARMING IN THE 925-850 MB LAYER ALONG WITH
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ALONG THE 275-290 K SFCS. RUC13 BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SHOW A DECENT AMOUNT OF UPWARD OMEGA IN THE SATURATED LAYER THROUGH
THIS EVENING WHILE THE X-SECTIONS VIA THE GFS40 AND RUC13 POINT TO
SOME FRONTOGENETIC LIFT ALONG THE TOP OF THE SATURATED LAYER. ALL
MODELS SHOW SOME LIGHT QPF DEVELOPING BY AT LEAST THE AFTERNOON FOR
THE FORECAST AREA....PERSISTING INTO THE EVENING AND THEN INCREASING
TONIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH/SFC LOW MOVES IN. BEFORE THAT
THOUGH...THE EXPECTED LOW CLOUDS WILL LACK ANY ICE...THUS MAKING ANY
PCPN THE LIFT CAN SQUEEZE OUT OF THEM LIQUID...AND EITHER FREEZING
DRIZZLE OR DRIZZLE...SFC TEMP DEPENDENT. THAT SAID...WITH TEMPS
EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE EARLY EVENING THANKS TO THE STRONG WARM
AIR ADVECTIVE SIGNAL...GROUND TEMPS WILL LIKELY STILL STAY BELOW
FREEZING DUE TO THE SEVERAL DAYS OF COLD CONDITIONS. SO...FREEZING
COULD STILL RESULT ON UNTREATED ROADS AND OTHER EXPOSED SFCS EVEN IF
THE AIR TEMP RISES ABOVE FREEZING.
WITH ALL THIS IN MIND...FEEL THE THREAT FOR AREAS OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE IS HIGH ENOUGH FOR A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING. SOUNDINGS AND X-SECTIONS DON/T REALLY DISCRIMINATE TOO MUCH
BETWEEN WHERE THE CHANCES WOULD BE BEST...SO WILL GO WITH THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA. THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING WOULD APPEAR TO BE
THE MAIN THREAT TIME...BUT CAN/T RULE OUT PERIODS OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE THIS MORNING...SO WILL START IT EARLY.
THE SATURATION DEEPENS OVERNIGHT ENOUGH THAT ICE WOULD BE INTRODUCED
INTO THE CLOUD...AND SNOW BECOMES THE PCPN TYPE. THIS CORRESPONDS
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/SFC LOW...AND BETTER
UPPER LEVEL FORCING. QPF INCREASES IN THE MODELS AS A RESULT...AND
SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE PROBABLE. WHILE ITS BELIEVED THE
EC HAS THE BEST HANDLE ON THIS SYSTEM AT THIS TIME...ITS DEFORMATION
PCPN REGION LIES ON TOP OF ITS SFC LOW. MEANWHILE THE GFS AND GEM IS
DISPLACED A BIT MORE NORTH-WEST OF THE LOW TRACK...AND SEEMS MORE
REASONABLE. WILL TREND THE SNOW CHANCES THIS WAY OVERNIGHT. WILL GO
WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS
MORE LIKELY NORTH OF I-94.
SNOW WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTHEAST AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SHIFTS INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA. IT WILL BE A WINDY DAY WITH AN
INCREASING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT POST THE LOW. IN ADDITION...COLD
AIR ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN STEADY OF SLOWLY FALLING TEMPERATURES.
MONDAY/S HIGH WILL LIKELY BE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
230 AM CST SUN JAN 22 2012
FAIRLY ACTIVE NEARLY ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL PERSIST INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND...SPINNING SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ACROSS THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. HOWEVER...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
KEEP THE BULK OF ANY ASSOCIATED PCPN ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION. SO OVERALL...IT LOOKS FAIRLY DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
THE BETTER...ALBEIT SMALL SNOW CHANCES...ACROSS THE NORTH.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE AT OR ABOVE THE SEASONABLE NORMALS.
&&
.AVIATION...THROUGH 06Z MONDAY
1135 PM CST SAT JAN 21 2012
SUB VFR CONDITIONS AND THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION CONTINUE TO BE
THE MAIN FOCUS AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A 1KFT TO
2KFT STRATUS DECK SETTLED IN ACROSS MUCH OF MINNESOTA AND IOWA
WITH THE EASTERN EDGE OF THIS DECK ERODING ACROSS WISCONSIN ALONG
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THIS DRY SLOT SHOULD GET INTO LSE AROUND
630-7Z AND WILL LIKELY PERSIST UNTIL 12Z WHEN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURN STRENGTHENS AND BRINGS ANOTHER LOW LEVEL CLOUD DECK UP FROM
MISSOURI/ILLINOIS. AT RST...HAVE LOW END MVFR RIGHT NOW WITH
CEILINGS AT 1300FT AND VISIBILITY AT 6SM DUE TO SOME DRIFTING
SNOW.
WHEN CONDITIONS WILL LOWER AND WHEN THE PRECIPITATION STARTS UP IS
THE TOUGHEST PART OF THE FORECAST RIGHT NOW. FOR
PRECIPITATION...THE MAIN TYPE WILL LIKELY BE FREEZING DRIZZLE WITH
SIGNS POINTING TO A LATE MORNING START UP OF THE DRIZZLE WITH THIS
TIMING ALSO COINCIDING WITH CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY DROPPING DOWN
TO IFR OR LOWER. THE ONLY CHANGES THAT WILL COME LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS WITH WINDS DIMINISHING OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST AND A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AT RST AROUND 4Z WITH
VISIBILITY POSSIBLY DROPPING BELOW A MILE.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
230 AM CST SUN JAN 22 2012
WI...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT CST
TONIGHT FOR WIZ017-029-032>034-041>044-053>055-061.
MN...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT CST
TONIGHT FOR MNZ079-086>088-094>096.
IA...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT CST
TONIGHT FOR IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM... RIECK
LONG TERM.... RIECK
AVIATION..... HALBACH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1135 PM CST SAT JAN 21 2012
.SHORT TERM...UDPATE FOR OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW
926 PM CST SAT JAN 21 2012
THE MAIN FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON THE FREEZING DRIZZLE THAT LOOKS
PROBABLE VERY LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW AND HOW WIDESPREAD IT
WILL BECOME.
MUCH OF WHAT WAS MENTIONED EARLIER TODAY STILL HOLDS TRUE NOW WITH
THE PAST FEW RUNS OF RUC SOUNDINGS STILL SHOWING SOME FREEZING
DRIZZLE DEVELOPING THROUGH TOMORROW. THE 20.20Z TO 21.01Z RUC
SOUNDINGS SHOW A SATURATED LAYER FROM THE SURFACE UP TO AROUND
900MB TONIGHT THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION WITH A SUBSTANTIAL DRY LAYER LOCATED AT THE TOP OF THIS LOW
LEVEL INVERSION WHICH ENDS AROUND 800MB. OMEGA LOOKS DECENT ENOUGH
IN THE MID LEVELS OVERNIGHT...BUT IT IS JUST WORKING ON DRY AIR AT
THOSE LEVELS. ITS GOING TO TAKE SOME LOW LEVEL FORCING TO START
PRODUCING ANY DRIZZLE AND THAT DOES NOT APPEAR TO COME IN UNTIL
12Z OR SO FROM THE WEST AS THE SURFACE LOW APPROACHES AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES ON THE 280K TO 290K SURFACES. ANOTHER
ISSUE IS THAT THESE SOUNDINGS...ALONG WITH THE 22.00Z NAM THAT IS
JUST COMING IN...ALSO SHOW 925MB TEMPERATURES DOWN AROUND -8C TO
-10C ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA THROUGH 18Z
SUNDAY WHICH MAY BE COLD ENOUGH TO PROMOTE ICE DEVELOPMENT.
SO...INSTEAD OF SEEING JUST FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS THIS REGION
SUNDAY MORNING...IT COULD BE A MIX OF FREEZING DRIZZLE...SNOW
GRAINS...AND SLEET. 22.00Z MPX SOUNDING BACKS UP THESE -10C LOW
LEVEL TEMPERATURES...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH THAT THESE
WILL STILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO PRODUCE THE ICE/SNOW IN THE MORNING...SO
HAVE LEFT THE FREEZING DRIZZLE AS THE MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPE. DUE
TO THIS UNCERTAINTY...CONFIDENCE IS LOW ENOUGH THAT A FREEZING
RAIN ADVISORY WILL NOT BE ISSUED THIS EVENING FOR SUNDAY.
THE OTHER NEAR TERM CONSIDERATION WITH THE DRIZZLE WAS WITH
WHETHER TO PUSH IT INTO NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA A
LITTLE FASTER OVERNIGHT...MAINLY AROUND 9-12Z FROM FLOYD COUNTY
IOWA NORTH TO DODGE COUNTY MINNESOTA. THIS IS BASED ON THE 21.01Z
RUC SOUNDINGS FROM MCW SHOWING SOME LOW LEVEL OMEGA GETTING IN
DURING THAT TIME FRAME. STILL THINK THAT THE BETTER FORCING WILL
COME IN LATER...SO NO UPDATES WERE MADE IN THIS AREA.
ONE LAST CONSIDERATION WAS WHETHER TO ADD ANY BLOWING SNOW TO THE
FORECAST FOR OVERNIGHT AS WINDS HAVE PICKED UP TO BETWEEN 20-30KTS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
DESPITE THE POWDERY SNOW THAT FELL YESTERDAY...A FULL DAY OF
COMPACTION AND SUNLIGHT SEEMS TO BE KEEPING MUCH OF THE SNOW IN
PLACE EXCEPT FOR FURTHER WEST ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA WHERE VISIBILITY IS DOWN BETWEEN 3/4SM AND 2SM. HAVE
MADE SOME CALLS OUT TO SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA AND
THE COUNTY SHERIFFS ARE REPORTING THAT THEY HAVE NOT HAD ANY
ISSUES WITH BLOWING SNOW...BUT THAT IT IS JUST DRIFTING SNOW
RUNNING OVER THE TOP OF ROADWAYS. THUS...NO BLOWING SNOW WILL BE
ADDED TO THE FORECAST FOR OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL STICK TO RIGHT AROUND 20 DEGREES OVERNIGHT WITH
LOW LEVEL STRATUS FILLING IN FROM THE WEST AND GUSTY SOUTHEAST
WINDS PROMOTING LOW LEVEL MIXING.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
319 PM CST SAT JAN 21 2012
AFTER AN ACTIVE SHORT TERM PERIOD...LONG TERM FORECAST AT LEAST AT
THIS TIME LOOKS FAIRLY BENIGN. IN THE MEAN...ALL MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT OF A FAST WEST-NORTHWEST PATTERN FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST INTO OUR REGION...WHICH MAY BECOME A LITTLE MORE
NORTHWESTERLY ON SATURDAY WITH INDICATIONS OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DIGGING DOWN INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT A
FLOW OF MILD PACIFIC AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA...NOTED BY 850MB
TEMPS THAT STRUGGLE TO GET COLDER THAN -6C FOR THE MOST PART UNTIL
SATURDAY. THERE ARE A FEW SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA...ONE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AND ANOTHER ON
THURSDAY. NEITHER OF THESE FEATURES PRODUCE MUCH QPF IN MODEL
OUTPUT...PRIMARILY BECAUSE THEY DO NOT HAVE MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH. THE SYSTEM IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD PRETTY MUCH SHUNTS ALL
MOISTURE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. THEREFORE...ONLY SOME SLIGHT
CHANCES REMAIN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
PRECIPITATION TYPE MAY HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR THIS TIME
PERIOD...GIVEN THE MILDER 850MB TEMPS. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
EITHER MIXES WITH RAIN...OR WORSE A LOSS OF ICE RESULTING IN
RAIN/FREEZING RAIN VERSUS SNOW. KEPT PRECIPITATION TYPES AS SNOW
SINCE BOTH DETAILS ARE VERY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.
FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...FOLLOWED A CONSENSUS BLEND OF
GUIDANCE FOR BOTH TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT THE
LONG TERM PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...THROUGH 06Z MONDAY
1135 PM CST SAT JAN 21 2012
SUB VFR CONDITIONS AND THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION CONTINUE TO BE
THE MAIN FOCUS AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A 1KFT TO
2KFT STRATUS DECK SETTLED IN ACROSS MUCH OF MINNESOTA AND IOWA
WITH THE EASTERN EDGE OF THIS DECK ERODING ACROSS WISCONSIN ALONG
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THIS DRY SLOT SHOULD GET INTO LSE AROUND
630-7Z AND WILL LIKELY PERSIST UNTIL 12Z WHEN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURN STRENGTHENS AND BRINGS ANOTHER LOW LEVEL CLOUD DECK UP FROM
MISSOURI/ILLINOIS. AT RST...HAVE LOW END MVFR RIGHT NOW WITH
CEILINGS AT 1300FT AND VISIBILITY AT 6SM DUE TO SOME DRIFTING
SNOW.
WHEN CONDITIONS WILL LOWER AND WHEN THE PRECIPITATION STARTS UP IS
THE TOUGHEST PART OF THE FORECAST RIGHT NOW. FOR
PRECIPITATION...THE MAIN TYPE WILL LIKELY BE FREEZING DRIZZLE WITH
SIGNS POINTING TO A LATE MORNING START UP OF THE DRIZZLE WITH THIS
TIMING ALSO COINCIDING WITH CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY DROPPING DOWN
TO IFR OR LOWER. THE ONLY CHANGES THAT WILL COME LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS WITH WINDS DIMINISHING OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST AND A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AT RST AROUND 4Z WITH
VISIBILITY POSSIBLY DROPPING BELOW A MILE.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
319 PM CST SAT JAN 21 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HALBACH
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...HALBACH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
915 PM MST MON JAN 23 2012
.SYNOPSIS...A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. EXPECT
COOLER TEMPERATURES TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY DRY CONDITIONS WITH A
WARMING TREND WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM ERN NEVADA SWWD INTO
SRN CALIFORNIA AT THIS TIME. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED CLOUDS
TO BE DECREASING FAIRLY QUICKLY DURING THE PAST 1-2 HOURS ACROSS SRN
CALIFORNIA. MEANWHILE...CLOUDY SKIES WERE NOTED ACROSS SE AZ WITH
COLDEST TOPS ACROSS ERN SECTIONS. ALSO...PRECIP ECHOES REMAINED WELL
NORTH AND WEST OF THIS FORECAST AREA AS OF 0405Z (905 PM MST).
HAVE NOTED THAT THE 24/00Z NAM MOS GUIDANCE POP FOR KTUS HAD
INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY VERSUS PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS FOR THE REST OF
TONIGHT. POP VALUE OF 27 FOR KTUS ENDING 12Z TUESDAY VERSUS SEVERAL
PRIOR SOLUTIONS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR TONIGHT. ALSO...24/00Z
RUC HRRR DEPICTED PRECIP TO DEVELOP FROM TUCSON VICINITY NWD ACROSS
SE PINAL COUNTY DURING THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. PRECIP PROGGED TO DEVELOP
AND ADVANCE EWD AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO NRN GREENLEE/GRAHAM/NRN COCHISE
COUNTIES. AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...PRECIP PROGGED TO BE CONFINED MOSTLY
EAST OF TUCSON.
THUS...AM INCLINED TO MAINTAIN THE INHERITED FORECAST FOR THE REST
OF TONIGHT. WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY-CATEGORY POPS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN NE OF TUCSON. MEANWHILE...CHANCE-CATEGORY POPS
ELSEWHERE EXCEPT NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WHERE A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED. PRECIP TO DECREASE FROM WEST-EAST TUESDAY.
STORM TOTAL QPF/S TO GENERALLY BE LESS THAN ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH AT
LOWER ELEVATIONS. SNOWFALL ACCUMS WILL BE HIGHEST ACROSS THE WHITE
MTNS. HOWEVER...SNOW ACCUMS WILL BE BELOW WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
CRITERIA.
PLEASE REFER TO THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION SECTION BELOW FOR ADDITIONAL
DETAIL.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...MODELS PROG THE BEST THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION
OCCURRING FROM 06Z-12Z TONIGHT. MODEL CROSS-SECTIONS SUPPORT THIS
AND SHOW THE BEST MOISTURE TO EXTEND FROM GENERALLY THE TUCSON AREA
AND NORTH WITH THE BEST LIFT TO OUR NORTH AND EAST. GIVEN THAT THIS
SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE...
AND SINCE THE SYSTEM WILL BE A RAPID MOVER WITH ONLY ABOUT A 6 TO 8
HOUR WINDOW FOR IT TO GIVE US ITS BEST...WE ARE NOT EXPECTING VERY
MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAIN OR SNOW...EVEN THOUGH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY HIGH. QPF AMOUNTS FOR DESERTS/VALLEYS
ONLY EXPECTED TO BE AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS...AND PERHAPS
UP TO A QUARTER TO A THIRD OF AN INCH IN LIQUID EQUIVALENT FOR THE
MOUNTAINS. WITH THAT SAID...MY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE THE GREATEST
OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN GREENLEE COUNTY AND STORM
TOTALS WILL BE BELOW WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CONDITIONS...SO NO
HEADLINES NEEDED WITH THIS SYSTEM.
THE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY MOVE TO OUR EAST BY LATE TUESDAY WITH
RIDGING BUILDING IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM THROUGH AT LEAST LATE
THURSDAY BEFORE ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DROP DOWN FROM
THE GREAT BASIN AND ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA ON FRIDAY. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY DRY WITH ANY ASSOCIATED MOISTURE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF MY FORECAST AREA. THE MODELS BEGIN TO SHOW
CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES AFTER FRIDAY...SO NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO
THE EXTENDED FORECAST WHICH IS BASICALLY DRY.
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 5 TO 7 DEGS BELOW NORMAL FOR
TUESDAY...THEN ONLY SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR WEDNESDAY. HIGHS
GENERALLY 7 TO 10 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND 4 TO
6 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOWS WILL
BE AROUND 3 TO 5 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY...THEN 2 TO
4 DEGS BELOW NORMAL FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING. NEAR NORMAL LOWS ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY MORNING...THEN 2 TO 4 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL
THEREAFTER.
&&
.AVIATION...CLOUD DECKS GENERALLY 5-9K FT AGL THRU 18Z TUESDAY THEN
CLOUDS DECREASING MONDAY AFTERNOON AND BECOMING FEW-SCT AT 6-10K FT
AGL 00Z-12Z WEDNESDAY. SCT -SHRA AND HIGHER TERRAIN -SHSN MAINLY
FROM KTUS NWD TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. PRECIP DECREASING FROM
WEST-EAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THEN PRECIP ENDING AREA-WIDE BY 00Z
WEDNESDAY. SURFACE WIND GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS THRU 12Z
WEDNESDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
$$
WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1049 PM MST MON JAN 23 2012
.AVIATION...
EVENING SATELLITE LOOP AND 00Z MODELS ALL SUGGEST INCOMING UPPER
SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WEAK AND FAIRLY FAR TO THE SOUTH AS IT MOVES BY
SOUTHERN COLORADO OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY. STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR
A FEW HOURS OF -SN AND MVFR CIGS AT KALS FROM 10Z-16Z...WITH
SURROUNDING MOUNTAINS OBSCURED THROUGH 21Z. FOR KPUB AND
KCOS...BRIEF WINDOW FOR A FEW -SHSN IS CENTERED AROUND 18Z
TUE...WITH FAIRLY QUICK END TO PRECIP CHANCES BY 00Z. NOW APPEARS
ANY SNOW OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS WILL BE VERY SPOTTY AND
LIGHT...THOUGH HIGHER TERRAIN WILL BE OCCASIONALLY OBSCURED 10Z
THROUGH 23Z. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ALL AREAS AFTER 23Z AS SYSTEM
MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM MST MON JAN 23 2012/
SHORT TERM...
(TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC80 DATA SHOW THE APPROACHING
STORM SYSTEM OVER CENTRAL NEVADA AT THIS TIME. THE 12Z NAM12 AND
GFS FORECAST THE LOW TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS AREA INTO
SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO BY 18Z TUESDAY.
12Z NAM12 AND GFS AND THE 17Z HRRR SHOW SNOW BEGINNING IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 01Z AND 02Z TUESDAY. I DECIDED TO
BLEND THE 12Z NAM12 AND GFS (THE NAM12 BEING THE HEAVIEST ON QPF AND
THE GFS BEING THE LIGHTEST)...AND HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS BEGINNING AT 01Z. CURRENT TOTAL
SNOW GRID SHOWS FIVE TO SEVEN INCHES OF SNOW ON THE HIGHEST PEAKS OF
THE SAN JUANS. WITH THE UPPER LOW PASSING WELL TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST UPLOPE FLOW ON THE WEAK SIDE...SNOW TOTALS ARE ON THE LOW
SIDE OF ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT FEEL AT LEAST THE PEAKS WILL REACH
ADVISORY CRITERIA.
THE SANGRES...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHERN PEAKS...WILL ALSO RECEIVE LIGHT
TO MODERATE SNOWS (3-5 INCHES)...BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA DURING THIS EVENT...AS WILL THE EASTERN SAWATCH AND WESTERN
MOSQUITOES RANGES. THE SAN LUIS VALLEY WILL ONLY LIKELY SEE A DUSTING
OF SNOW.
THE INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR AND EASTERN PLAINS WILL LIKELY NOT SEE
ANY APPRECIABLE PRECIPITATION FROM THIS SYSTEM WITH ONLY 50 POPS IN
THE GRIDS FOR COS AND PUB AND ISOLATED POPS FOR THE EASTERN PLAINS.
PRECIPITATION WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AFTER 18Z
AS THE THEN CLOSED 500MB LOW MOVES WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA.
LONG TERM...
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
TUESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY BEHIND PASSING UPPER
TROUGH BECOMES MORE WESTERLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE STATE. GENERALLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION
ONGOING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND FAR SE PLAINS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON LOOKS TO DIMINISH TUESDAY EVENING WITH SKIES CLEARING FROM
WEST TO EAST TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE REMAINS SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ON
NORTHERN EXTENT OF DEFORMATION BAND PRECIP SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH
UPPER LOW MOVING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...WITH THE LATEST
GFS AND ECMWF KEEPING ANY PRECIPITATION WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
AREA. THE NAM CONTINUES TO DEVELOP PRECIP ACROSS THE WESTERN TX/OK
PANHANDLE WHICH SLIDES NORTH AND EAST INTO SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO
TUESDAY NIGHT. AT ANY RATE...HAVE KEPT SLIGHT POPS ACROSS MAINLY
SOUTHERN BACA COUNTY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...WHICH ALSO BLENDS BETTER
WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES. DRY WEATHER WITH ABOVE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES IS THEN EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY UNDER THE BUILDING RIDGE. THURSDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK...THOUGH TEMPERATURES MAY BE TEMPERED BY
INCREASING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.
THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
OF WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL DEVELOPING ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AND
IMMEDIATE ADJACENT PLAINS THROUGH THIS PERIOD...AS A SHORT WAVE
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MOVES ACROSS THE
ROCKIES. QUICK MOVEMENT OF SYSTEM LIMITS SNOW DURATION...THOUGH SHOULD
AT LEAST SEE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTS
THROUGH THE EASTERN MTS...ALONG WITH THE PALMER DIVIDE AND RATON
MESA...AS NORTH TO NORTHEAST SFC-H7 FLOW DEVELOPS THROUGH THE DAY.
SYSTEM SENDS A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS FRIDAY LIKELY EARLY IN THE
MORNING WITH STEADY AND FALLING TEMPERATURES INTO THE AFTERNOON.
SATURDAY-MONDAY...MODERATE WEST TO NORTHWEST CONTINUES ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH LATEST MODELS
STILL INDICATING DIFFERENCES IN HARD TIME SHORT WAVES TRANSLATING
THROUGH THE FLOW. WITH TIMING DIFFERENCES...HAVE KEPT CURRENT
ISOLATED POPS ACROSS MAINLY THE CENTRAL MTS THROUGH THE PERIOD ALONG
WITH AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. -MW
AVIATION...
LOWERING CIGS EXPECTED TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS AND SAN LUIS VALLEY WITH CIGS DROPPING INTO THE MVFR
CATEGORY AFTER 09Z AT KALS. -SHSN WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM
09Z-17Z...WITH ANY ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER AN
INCH.
FOR KCOS AND KPUB...VFR CIGS WILL SPREAD INTO BOTH TAF SITES LATE
TONIGHT WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS 10-20 KTS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD
FRONT SPREADING INTO KCOS AND KPUB BETWEEN 15-17Z TUES. CIGS WILL
CONTINUE TO LOWER FOR BOTH TAF SITES DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON...DROPPING INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY. MTN OBSCURATIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE SE MTS BY AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE FOR LOCATIONS NEAR THE MTS. DUE TO LOW PROBABILITY
OF -SHSN AFFECTING THE TAF SITES...WILL KEEP VCSH IN KCOS AND KPUB
TAFS FOR NOW.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ068.
&&
$$
10/77
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
332 AM CST TUE JAN 24 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A H5 LOW WAS LOCATED OVER LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY EVENING WITH
RIDGING OVER THE PLAINS AHEAD A S/W OVER THE ROCKIES. AT THE
SURFACE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND A SWRN ONTARIO LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED
WEST TO A SURFACE RIDGE FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS THROUGH SW IA AND
CENTRAL MO EARLY THIS MORNING. STRATUS IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW
EXTENDED TO THE PLAINS RIDGE AXIS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
CLOUD TRENDS WILL DOMINATE THE SHORT TERM WITH A STUBBORN STRATUS
FIELD OVER THE AREA...THEN MID/HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING OVER THE
AREA TONIGHT...AHEAD OF THE S/W MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT.
MODEL RH PROGS ARE OFFERING LITTLE HELP WITH THE STRATUS DECK THIS
MORNING SHOWING A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF DRYING OVER THE CWA BY
12Z. CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS DO NO SUPPORT THIS WITH THE WEST AND
SOUTH EDGES OF THE CLOUD SHIELD MOVING LITTLE SINCE 06Z. THERE WAS
A NARROW AREA OF CLEARING EMBEDDED IN THE STRATUS OVER MN WHICH
THE MODELS WERE DEPICTING. BUT THE CLEARING HAS NOT EXPANDED MUCH
THE LAST FEW HOURS. LOOKING A SOME LOW LEVEL VERTICAL MOTION PROGS
THE RUC AND NAM BOTH SHOW AN INCREASE IN DVM OVER EASTERN IA BY
MID MORNING SO WILL BANK ON THIS AS AN INDICATOR THAT THE RATE OF
CLEARING WILL PICK UP BY MID MORNING. THE LATEST GRIDS WILL HOLD
CLOUDY SKIES OVER AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH CLEARING SPREADING
EAST LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE SLOWER
CLEARING TREND WILL IMPACT TODAY/S HIGHS AND HAVE ADJUSTED MAX
TEMPS DOWN A LITTLE IN THE NORTHEAST WHERE THE CLOUDS WILL LINGER
THE LONGEST.
MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL STREAM BACK OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING AHEAD
OF THE PLAINS SHORT WAVE. THE MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING MUCH AND KEPT MINS IN THE LOWER 20S
CENTRAL AND SOUTH. SNOW COVER IN THE NORTH AND A LATER ARRIVAL
TIME OF THE CLOUDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES OVER THE NORTHERN CWFA
TO DROP OFF QUICKLY THIS EVENING INTO THE TEENS THEN STEADY OUT
THE REST OF THE NIGHT. ..DLF..
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BULK OF LATEST RUN 00Z MODELS CONTINUE THE
IDEA OF AN ALMOST SPLIT FLOW TYPE REGIME AND UN-PHASED SOLUTIONS IN
HANDLING OF A SOUTHERN STREAM CUT-OFF UPPER CYCLONE AND A MORE
DOMINANT NORTHERN STREAM WAVE PULSE RIPPLING ALONG THE MID-CONUS/GRT
LKS U.S. AND CANADIAN BORDER REGIONS THIS PERIOD. THUS WITH THE DVN
CWA REMAINING IN BETWEEN THESE TWO ACTIVE REGIONS...CHANCES ARE FOR
A MAINLY DRY PERIOD. LEAD VORT IN THIS FLOW AND WAA SHOULD PRODUCE
CLOUDS ON WED AND POSSIBLY SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIP IN OR NEAR THE
CWA AND NOT WORTH MENTIONING AT THIS POINT. A LARGER UPPER WAVE IN
THE NORTHERN STREAM DIGGING ACRS THE NW GRT LKS WILL THEN LOOK
TO TRY AND PHASE/INTERACT WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM LOW OVER
TX BY THU. MOST OF THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE PRECIP SHIELD OFF
THIS PROCESS SHOULD REMAIN JUST OFF TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE
DVN CWA THROUGH THU NIGHT...AGAIN WITH MAYBE JUST SOME VERY LIGHT
PRECIP GENERATED ACRS THE LOCAL AREA BY FORCING FROM THE MID LEVEL
TROF AXIS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING IF
ADEQUATE MOISTURE DEPTH WOULD OCCUR WHICH IS STILL UNCERTAIN AT THIS
POINT. ONLY THE LATEST UKMET PHASES THESE SYSTEMS IN A WAY THAT
DEF ZONE PRECIP IN THE FORM OF RAIN AND SNOW IMPACTS THE SOUTHEASTERN
CWA ON THU. FOR NOW WILL IGNORE THAT SOLUTION AND KEEP THE FCST DRY.
WITH ERODED SNOW COVER...PROJECTED THERMAL MODERATION THROUGH THIS
PERIOD SUPPORTS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ESPECIALLY ON THU WHEN PRE-TROF
WAA COULD BOOST TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S IN MUCH OF THE
SOUTHERN 2/3S OF THE FCST AREA ALONG WITH PARTIAL INSOLATION. POST-
TROF COLD AIR ADVECTION ALONG WITH LOW TO MID LEVEL RIDGING SLIDING
EAST ACRS MUCH OF THE LENGTH OF THE MS RVR VALLEY...SHOULD LEAD TO A
MAINLY CLEAR AND COOL NIGHT THU NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS TO
LOWER 20S.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE NEW 00Z RUN ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE
CONSISTENT WITH THE NEXT CLIPPER TYPE WAVE RIPPLING DOWN IN
PROGRESSIVE WEST-NORTH-WESTERLIES AND IS COLD ENOUGH FOR MAINLY SNOW
BY KATE FRI AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING WITH 1-2 INCHES POSSIBLE.
THE FAR SOUTH COULD HAVE A MIX WITH PRE-SYSTEM WARM AIR ADVECTION
AFFECTING THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THE NEW 00Z RUN GFS IS LESS BULLISH
WITH THE WAVE AND FURTHER SOUTHWEST MAINLY MISSING THE AREA. FOR
NOW WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC POPS GOING. NEG ARCTIC OSCILLATION
FLUCTUATIONS AGREE WITH MEDIUM RANGE PROGS AND ENSEMBLES OF
DIGGING L/W TROF PATTERN OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL LEAD TO A
COLDER BLUSTERY SAT BEHIND THE FRI SYSTEM WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
20S TO MID 30S AND PASSING SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES IN TIGHTENING
CYCLONIC FLOW.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...COLDER DAY IN STORE FOR SUNDAY THAN SAT IN
SECOND DAY OF GRT LKS L/W TROFFINESS...BUT MAYBE LESS FLURRIES/SNOW
SHOWERS IF ANY AT ALL. HIGHS IN THE 20S. LONG RANGE SIGNALS AND A
POS TRENDING AO THEN SUGGEST FLATTENING FLOW PATTERN INTO EARLY/MID
NEXT WEEK FOR THERMAL MODERATION BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL. DEPENDING ON
PHASING AND TIMING...THIS PATTERN TO CONTINUE TO BE ACTIVE AND
POSSIBLY USHER ANOTHER SYSTEM THROUGH THE MIDWEST SIMILAR TO WHAT
JUST HAPPENED THIS PAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BY NEXT TUE OR WED.
..12..
&&
.AVIATION...
CLOUD TRENDS SO FAR THIS MORNING SUGGEST CLEARING WILL OCCUR LATER
THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. A NEW SET OF TAFS WILL BE ISSUED WITH
MVFR/LOWER END VFR CIGS REMAINING OVER THE AREA UNTIL MID TO LATE
MORNING. ONCE THE CLOUDS CLEAR OUT THEN VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. ..DLF..
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
DLF/12
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
415 AM EST TUE JAN 24 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PASS NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY WITH A
WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON. A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION FROM QUEBEC LATER
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TEMPERATURES ARE THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE FOR THIS TERM.
RADAR DEPICTING STEADIER RAFL MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE EASTERN
3RD OF THE CWA W/THE SATL IR IMAGERY LINING UP W/THE ENHANCEMENT
IN THE SAME REGION. THE GFS AND RUC LINING UP QUITE WELL W/THE
RAFL AT 06Z AND FOLLOWED THIS BLEND THROUGH TODAY W/RAIN ENDING
THIS MORNING W/SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH MID MORNING AND THEN
ENDING. THE GFSBC WAS BLENDED W/THE LAMP GUIDANCE WHICH SHOWED A
SURGE OF WARMER AIR PUSHING IN ACROSS THE EASTERN 1/2 OF THE CWA
THIS MORNING. DECIDED TO BRING TEMPERATURES UP ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE CWA TO NEAR 40F AND MID TO UPPER 40S FROM HOULTON
DOWN THROUGH WASHINGTON COUNTY AND SOUTH THROUGH THE BANGOR AND
BAR HARBOR REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL LEVEL OFF LATER THIS MORNING
AND THEN MAKE THEIR DECLINE AS SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR FILTERS
INTO THE REGION. THIS IS ALREADY TAKING PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN NH
AND SW MAINE.
SOME WEAK RIDGING IS SHOWN BY THE GFS AND THE NAM TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION THIS EVENING W/SOME PARTIAL CLEARING. THIS WILL BE SHORT
LIVED HOWEVER AS THE UPPER TROF AND SFC COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE
STATE LATER IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE
ENOUGH FORCING TO KICK OFF SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTH AND WEST. CARRIED 30-40% POPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND
WESTERN AREAS. FURTHER EAST, FORCING LOOKS WEAK W/20% ADDED FOR
SOME FLURRIES OR A SNOW SHOWER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
FOR LATE JANUARY W/READINGS DROPPING BACK TO THE UPPER TEENS AND
LOWER 20S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WELL NORTHEAST OF THE REGION
ON WEDNESDAY. EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE NORTH AND
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DOWNEAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION ON
THURSDAY. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM ZERO TO 5 ABOVE
NORTH AND 10 TO 15 DOWNEAST. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOW TO MID 20S NORTH AND UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S DOWNEAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE STARTS
TO DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTHWEST. THIS LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TOWARD
THE REGION DURING FRIDAY AND THEN NORTHEAST INTO THE MARITIMES
FRIDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION
DURING FRIDAY. ACROSS THE NORTH PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE FORM OF SNOW WITH RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS DOWNEAST. THE LOW
WILL THEN TRACK TO OUR NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS. ANOTHER LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SOMEWHERE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST SUNDAY AND THEN TRACK NORTHEAST
SUNDAY NIGHT. DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK AND TIMING OF THIS
SYSTEM THERE COULD BE ANOTHER PERIOD OF SNOW LATER SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE JUST WENT WITH THE A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
WITH THIS SYSTEM FOR NOW SINCE THIS IS STILL ALONG WAY OUT AND
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TO THE
REGION FOR NEXT MONDAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL BE
NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL FRO THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR FOR ALL TERMINALS THIS MORNING GIVING WAY TO MVFR
BY MID MORNING AND THEN IT LOOKS LIKE VFR BY THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE NORTHERN TERMINALS(CAR-PQI &
HUL) AS CIGS COULD VERY WELL HIT MVFR LATER TONIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.
SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT IN WINTRY
PRECIPITATION. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN RETURN FOR SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS/SEAS ARE
AOA SCA LEVELS ATTM. THERE WILL BE A LULL IN THE WINDS LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. WINDS LOOK LIKE THEY WILL PICK UP
AGAIN TONIGHT W/THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROF. CARRIED GUSTS TO 25
KTS AS THINKING IS THAT SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE 15-20 KTS. SEAS
WILL STAY UP ABOVE SCA THROUGH TONIGHT. A BLEND OF THE SWAN AND
WNAWAVE WAS USED FOR THE SEAS WHICH KEEP HEIGHTS AOA 6 FT.
SHORT TERM: WIND/SEAS SHOULD BE BELOW SCA LEVELS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...THEN INCREASE TO SCA LEVELS BY FRIDAY.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...HEWITT
MARINE...HEWITT/DUDA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
1212 AM EST TUE JAN 24 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PASS NORTH OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION FROM THE
WEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE
REGION FROM QUEBEC ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE...DECIDED TO DROP THE REST OF THE WINTER WX ADVISORIES AS
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED ABOVE FREEZING EVEN AS FAR NORTH AS THE
SAINT JOHN VALLEY. TEMPERATURES RIGHT AT THE GROUND ARE STILL COLD
ENOUGH FOR THE RAIN TO FREEZE, BUT CONDITIONS ARE IMPROVING. THE
GFS AND RUC IN LINE W/THE LATEST CONDITIONS. MOVED TIMING OF
ENDING THE STEADIER RAINFALL BY 10-12Z TIMEFRAME W/JUST SOME RAIN
SHOWERS LEFTOVER. THE GFSBC TEMPERATURES MATCHING UP QUITE. LAMP
GUIDANCE A BIT COOL. BLENDED THE GFSBC W/THE LAMP FOR HRLY
TEMPERATURES WHICH PUSHES 40+F ALL THE WAY UP INTO NE AROOSTOOK
BY 12Z. SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE QPF WERE MADE USING THE LATEST
OBS AND GFS/RUC QPF FIELDS.
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES INTO ONTARIO. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM HAS
SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON RESULTING IN A
SIGNIFICANT WARM UP. ALREADY STARTING TO SEE SOME LIGHT WAA
RETURNS ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA...MOSTLY FALLING THE
FORM OF LIGHT SNOW. TEMPERATURES DOWNEAST ARE ALREADY AT OR ABOVE
FREEZING...WITH MID 20S TO AROUND 30 NORTH OF A LINCOLN TO DOVER-
FOXCROFT LINE. THESE TEMPS SHOULD HOLD FAIRLY STEADY OR RISE JUST
A BIT THIS EVENING AND THEN RISE SIGNIFICANTLY OVERNIGHT. AS THE
WARM AIR INTRUDES ALOFT EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION TO BECOME A
WINTRY MIX BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO RAIN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
OVERNIGHT. THE COLDER AIR ACROSS THE NORTH WILL BE TOUGH FOR THE
INCOMING MILD AIRMASS TO DISLODGE SO THE MIX OF SLEET...FREEZING
RAIN...AND SNOW WILL LINGER THE LONGEST THERE BEFORE CHANGING
OVER. THE GOOD NEWS IN ALL THIS...AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH
THIS EVENING AS THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS CURRENTLY LOCATED
WELL TO OUR WEST ALONG AN APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT. BY THE TIME
THIS HEAVIER PRECIP MAKES IT TO OUR AREA TEMPERATURES SHOULD
MOSTLY BE ABOVE FREEZING. THEREFORE SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS THAN
AN INCH WITH LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER EVEN ONCE TEMPERATURES
WARM UP ENOUGH FOR THE PRECIPITATION TO CHANGE TO ALL
RAIN...SURFACES SUCH AS UNTREATED SIDE ROADS MAY STILL BE BELOW
FREEZING FOR A FEW HOURS. ACCORDINGLY THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
THE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE TUESDAY MORNING WITH DRIER
AIR SPREADING IN ITS WAKE. THE RAIN WILL COME TO AN END ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS
HANGING ON ACROSS THE NORTH AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS. DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPS WILL BE EARLY...IN THE 40S...THEN TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY
FALL THROUGH THE DAY REACHING THE 30S BY EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BEHIND THE WEAK...FIRST COLD FRONT...TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
QUITE MILD TUE NGT...BUT NOT AS WARM AS TNGT...WITH CLDS AND
FLURRIES ARRIVING LATE INTO NRN PTNS OF THE FA AHEAD OF AN UPPER
TROF MOVG E TOWARD THE FA FROM CNTRL CAN. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
ACCOMPANIES THIS FEATURE...WITH THE FRONT MOVG INTO NW PTNS OF
THE FA EARLY-MID MORN AND EXITING THE SE PTN OF THE FA BY ERLY TO
MID AFT. THE POSSIBILITY OF SOMEWHAT ENHANCED SN SHWRS EXIST WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THESE FEATURES...SPCLY ACROSS THE N WED MORN WHERE
MENTION LOCALIZED SN ACCUMULATIONS UP TO AN INCH. BY WED AFTN...
CLDS WILL BE ON THE DECREASE WITH FALLING AFTN TEMPS BEHIND THE
SECOND COLD FRONT. ANOTHER FOLLOW-UP S/WV FROM CNTRL CAN MAY KEEP
SOME CLDS OVR THE FA WED EVE...FOLLOWED BY CLRG LATE WED NGT AS
SFC HI PRES APCHS BY THU MORN. HI TEMPS WED WILL LIKELY ONLY
RECOVER SEVERAL DEGREES...SPCLY N AND W...BEFORE FALLING IN THE
AFTN AND THEN SHOULD REACH NEAR SEASONAL LOWS THU MORN.
THU SHOULD BE FAIR WITH NEAR SEASONAL HI TEMPS...WITH INCREASING HI
CLDS LATE IN THE DAY AS THE SFC HI MOVES JUST E OF THE FA.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT
WEAK AND PROGRESSIVE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVG ENE FROM THE N MID
ATLC STATES THRU CNTRL NEW ENG THU NGT INTO THE GULF OF ME ON FRI.
THIS BETTER AGREEMENT LEAD OUR OFFICE TO INCREASE POPS TO THE HI
LIKELY CAT FOR PRECIP THAT MOVES INTO OUR FA ON FRI. PRIOR TO
THIS...CLDS WILL THICKEN OVRNGT WITH OVRNGT LOWS OCCURRING BY LATE
EVE DUE TO THIS CLD CVR AND INCREASING LLVL WARM ADVCN. AFTWRDS
TEMPS WILL BEGIN RISING THRU THE LATE NGT HRS WITH SN ARRIVING IN
THE PRE-DAWN HRS BASED ON CURRENT MODEL ONSET TIMING. LLVL 1000-
850 MB THICKNESS PROGS SUGGEST SN COULD MIX WITH OR EVEN CHG TO RN
AS FAR N AS INTERIOR DOWNEAST OR EVEN PERHAPS SRN E CNTRL AREAS BY
LATE FRI MORN. THE REST OF THE FA SHOULD REMAIN ALL SN UNTIL THE
CONCLUSION OF THE EVENT BY MID TO LATE FRI AFTN. HI TEMPS WILL BE
MILDER THAN AVG FRI AND CONT SO WITH THE POSSIBILITY SN SHWRS FRI
NGT INTO SAT. LONGER RANGE MODELS CONT TO DVRG AND SHOW RUN TO RUN
INCONSISTENCIES WITH ANY EVENT ADVERTISED FOR LATE SAT NGT THRU
SUN NGT...SO BASED ON LOW FCST CONFIDENCE FOR THIS PTN OF THE
FCST...WE KEPT POPS IN THE LOW CHC CAT...MENTIONING MSLY SN SHWRS
ATTM. THERE IS EVEN LESS CERTAINTY REGARDING WHAT AIR MASS TYPE
WILL OCCUPY THE FA FROM SAT INTO MON...SO FOR NOW...WE BLENDED
12Z GMOS TEMPS WITH OPNL GFS AND 06Z DGEX DATA.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR DROPPING TO IFR DUE TO LOW CEILINGS THIS EVENING
AS PRECIPITATION SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION. THE PRECIPITATION WILL
BE ALL RAIN AT KBGR AND KBHB BUT A MIX OF SLEET...SNOW AND
FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS THROUGH ABOUT
04Z BEFORE IT TRANSITIONS OVER TO RAIN. THE RAIN WILL COME TO AN
END 12-14Z TUESDAY...BUT THE IFR CEILINGS WILL LINGER THROUGH 18Z
BEFORE LIFTING TO MVFR/VFR.
SHORT TO LONG TERM: MVFR CLGS AND AT TMS...VSBYS IN FLURRIES AND
SNOW SHWRS XPCTD TUE NGT THRU WED...WITH POSSIBLE BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS WITH MORE INTENSE SN SHWRS AHEAD OF THE SECONDARY COLD
FRONT WED MORN. DOWNEAST SITES WILL BE MSLY VFR DURG THIS TM...
XCPT BRIEFLY MVFR WITH ANY FLURRIES OR SN SHWRS LATE MORN/ERLY
AFTN WED. ALL SITES SHOULD THEN BE VFR FROM LATE AFTN WED THRU
THU EVE...BECOMING MVFR LATE THU NGT AND IFR ON FRI IN SN NRN TAF
SITES AND RN/SN MIXED DOWNEAST SITES. DOWNEAST TAF SITES BECOME
VFR FRI NGT WHILE NRN SITES BECOME MVFR AND ALL SITES SHOULD
BECOME VFR ON SAT.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THIS
EVENING THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY. SOUTH WINDS ARE ALREADY INCREASING
ACROSS THE WATERS IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE MOVING TO THE WEST.
SUSTAINED WINDS 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD AND SHOULD SLOWLY SUBSIDE LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
SHORT TO LONG TERM: MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUE
NGT INTO WED EVE WITH COLD ADVCN NW WINDS. NO HDLNS ANTICIPATED
LATE WED NGT INTO THU EVE. ANOTHER SCA PD IS POSSIBLE LATE THU NGT
INTO FRI WITH SE WINDS AHEAD OF LOW PRES MOVG ENE THRU THE GULF OF
ME FROM CNTRL NEW ENG.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
105 AM EST TUE JAN 24 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH SOME
LIGHT RAIN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FROM LATE TUESDAY THROUGH MID
WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH EARLY ON
FRIDAY WHILE A MORE POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE
GULF COAST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. COLD AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 930 PM MONDAY...MAIN DILEMMA CONTINUES WITH THE FOG...ITS
OCCURRENCE AND INTENSITY. THE FSI INDEX...WITH 00Z RAOBS AND VARIOUS
SFC 00Z TEMPS/DEWPOINTS INPUTS FOR VARIOUS SPOTS ACROSS THE ILM CWA
INDICATE DENSE FOG A POSSIBILITY TONIGHT. THE WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE SLOWLY EASTWARD MOVING FRONT...MAY JUST BE
ENOUGH TO CURTAIL THE WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG. NEVERTHELESS...HAVE
UPDATED ZONES TO INCREASE FOG COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. WILL ISSUE AN
SPS TO HIGHLIGHT THE FOG WITH ISOLATED DENSE IN SOME LOCATIONS. THIS
BASICALLY IS 1 STEP SHY OF ISSUING A DENSE FOG ADV. AS MENTIONED
EARLIER HAVE INDICATED ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED SHRA FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT VIA LATEST 88D TRENDS...AND HRRR AND NAM
MODELS INPUT. MIN TEMPS OVERNIGHT TO MORE OR LESS HOLD STEADY WITH
CURRENT VALUES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...COLD FRONT CROSSING THE ILM CWA TUESDAY
CREATES THE ONLY PRECIP THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS THEREAFTER HIGH
PRESSURE AND UPPER RIDGING TAKE OVER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
SHORT TERM.
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY CROSSING THROUGH AL/TN APPROACHES THE COASTAL
CAROLINAS EARLY TUESDAY. A BAND OF PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES EAST...AND SHOWERS WILL OCCUR
FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY MORNING. SPC STILL HIGHLIGHTS THE CAPE
FEAR REGION IN A "SEE TEXT" IN SWODY1 (ENDING AT 7AM TUESDAY...BUT
LIKELY LINGERING INTO THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD)...BUT FEEL
SEVERE THREAT IS QUITE LIMITED. IN FACT...EXPECT PRIMARILY
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS WITH VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF TSTMS. ALTHOUGH
SOME SURFACE INSTABILITY DEVELOPS ALONG THE COAST COINCIDENT WITH
SOME ENHANCED THETA-E AIR...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MOST
UNSTABLE AIR WILL BE ELEVATED...ABOVE 850-900MB. ADDITIONALLY...LOW
LEVEL JET MAX PASSES NORTH OF THE ILM CWA...LEAVING ONLY 30-35 KTS
OF WIND ALOFT...AND OMEGA IS RATHER MINIMAL. STILL...IF ANY
ENHANCED LIFT CAN BREAK THE WEAK INVERSION PRESENT AROUND
950MB...PARCELS COULD ACCELERATE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME THUNDER.
WILL KEEP ONLY SHOWERS AS WX TYPE HOWEVER. SREF 3-HR PROBS PEAK
ONLY AT 50-70% FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP FROM 7AM-10AM SO WILL CAP POP
AT CHANCE ACROSS PENDER/NH/BRUNSWICK COUNTIES...WITH SCHC EAST OF
I-95. ALL PRECIP MOVES OFFSHORE BY LATE MORNING.
COLD FRONT LAGS BEHIND...WITH WINDS BECOMING NW BY LATE AFTN AND
SKY CONDITIONS CLEARING AS COLUMN DRIES. CAA DOESN`T OCCUR UNTIL
LATE TUESDAY...SO WITH UPPER RIDGING DEVELOPING...SOME DOWNSLOPE
COMPONENT TO THE WINDS...AND 850MB TEMPS AROUND 11C...EXPECT TEMPS
TO SOAR TO AROUND 70 TUESDAY AFTN. WEAK CAA TUESDAY NIGHT THEN
DROPS TEMPS TO THE LOWER 40S. WEAK WAA ALOFT RETURNS WEDNESDAY BUT
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN FROM THE NORTH CREATES COOLER NE FLOW.
EXPECT A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 60S. RETURN
FLOW SETS UP LATE WEDNESDAY CAUSING INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND MINS
A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...1200 UTC OPERATIONAL GFS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH HPC GRAPHICS WHICH CONSIST MOSTLY OF A BLEND OF THE ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MEAN AND THE OPERATIONAL MODEL. HAVE FOLLOWED THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED GFS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD. THE
MAIN SYSTEM IS THE CUTOFF LOW MOVING ACROSS THE GULF COAST
THURSDAY AND GETTING EJECTED FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. AT THE
SURFACE A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY WITH THE
MAIN SURFACE LOW MOVING INLAND FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. HAVE
HIGHLIGHTED THE HIGHEST POPS FOR 1200-1800 UTC FRIDAY WITH SHOWERS
THE MAIN NATURE OF THE RAINFALL. LIGHTNING LOOKS UNLIKELY AT THIS
POINT AS THERE IS NO CAPE ABOVE THE FREEZING LEVEL ON SOUNDINGS. A
BIT PREMATURE TO BE TALKING ABOUT QPF BUT THE GFS DOES PAINT
ALMOST THREE INCHES OF STORM TOTAL RAINFALL ACROSS MOST AREAS BY
0600 UTC SATURDAY SO AT LEAST THE CHANCE IS THERE FOR A
SIGNIFICANT EVENT. FINALLY ARCTIC FRONT MOVES ACROSS LATE SATURDAY
WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES PLUNGING BRIEFLY BELOW ZERO DEGREES C.
MONDAY MORNING LOOKS THE COLDEST HOWEVER WITH BETTER RADIATIONAL
COOLING.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...SURFACE CONDITIONS SUBJECT TO LARGE SWINGS DUE TO LOW
STRATUS AND FOG. A WARM FRONT HAS MOVED NORTH OF ALL THE TERMINALS
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
GIVEN CURRENT CONDITIONS...CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE...AND LATE EVE
TRENDS...WILL HIT FOG AND STRATUS HARDEST AT KCRE...FORECASTING IFR
OR LOWER CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY AS SEA FOG POTENTIAL IS
HIGHEST HERE GIVEN PREVAILING WIND DIRECTION. ELSEWHERE ALONG THE
COAST...POTENTIAL FOR SEA FOG IS NOT AS HIGH...BUT WILL FORECAST
TEMPO IFR OR LOWER AT KMYR FROM ABOUT 07-13Z. WILL CLOSELY MONITOR
TRENDS AT KILM...BUT AT THIS TIME WILL FORECAST MVFR BR AND SCT
STRATUS...KEEPING CEILING IN VFR CATEGORY. INLAND...CONDITIONS
SHOULD DETERIORATE AND WILL INCLUDE TEMPO IFR OR LOWER CEILINGS
09-13Z...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. WILL
INCLUDE VCSH AT KILM FROM 08-13Z SINCE RISK IS A LITTLE GREATER THAN
AT THE OTHER TERMINALS. BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...EXPECT VFR
THROUGHOUT AS DRIER AIR VERY SLOWLY WORKS INTO THE AREA.
LIGHT SSW WINDS WILL VERY GRADUALLY VEER TO W AND THEN TO THE N.
FRONT WILL COME THROUGH IN PIECES...FIRST AT KLBT AND KFLO AS FRONT
REACHES THAT AREA EARLY TO MID MORNING AND NOT TIL AFTERNOON AT THE
COAST. WINDS MAY NOT GO AROUND TO N TIL THIS EVE.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...LOW CONFIDENCE IFR WEDNESDAY. GOOD CHANCE OF
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS/TEMPO IFR FRIDAY. VFR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 PM MONDAY...HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE SLOWLY VEERING SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AT 10 TO 15 KT OVERNIGHT. THE 15 KT SPEEDS WILL
OCCUR ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE SSTS ARE IN
THE LOWER 60S. SSTS IN THE 50S NEAR SHORE WILL LIMIT MIXING FROM
ALOFT...AND THUS HOLDING WIND SPEEDS IN THE 10 TO OCCASIONALLY 15
KT. FORECASTING SEA FOG WITH LOW TO MID 60S SFC DEW POINTS
ADVECTING ACROSS THE WATERS THIS TIME OF THE YEAR IS USUALLY A
NO-BRAINER. BUT THIS YEAR...SSTS ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING A GOOD 4 TO 6
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ILM COASTAL WATERS. FOR
NOW...HAVE INDICATED PATCHY SEA FOG REDUCING VSBY TO 1 NM OR LESS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT. SEAS TO RUN IN THE 2 TO 4 FT
RANGE OVERNIGHT...WITH WATERS BEYOND 20 NM OFF CAPE FEAR SEEING 5
FOOTERS DUE TO THE HIGHER WINDS OVER THE MILDER OFFSHORE WATERS. 1
TO OCCASIONALLY 2 FOOT 9-11 SECOND EASTERLY SWELL TO MIX WITH
LOCALLY PRODUCED WIND WAVES OF 2 TO 3 FEET AT 4 TO 6 SECOND PERIODS.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE WATERS TUESDAY
CREATES A TIGHTENED GRADIENT AND SW WINDS OF 10-15 KTS DURING THE
MORNING. OTHER THAN A FEW SHOWERS TUESDAY MORNING...COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE WATERS WITH LITTLE FANFARE OTHER THAN A WIND SHIFT TO THE
WEST BY EVENING...AND NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT. SEAS OF 3-4 FT INITIALLY
WILL SLOWLY FALL TO 2-3 FT BY NIGHTFALL. EVEN WITH LOW AMPLITUDE
WAVE HEIGHTS...SOME CONFUSED SEAS ARE LIKELY TUESDAY WITH SW WIND
WAVES OVERLAYING A RESIDUAL WEAK NE SWELL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
WATERS NORTH OF CAPE FEAR. NW WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS WILL INCREASE
AGAIN TO 15 KTS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY DUE TO A COOL SURGE
OVER THE WATERS. THIS WILL PICK SEAS BACK UP TO 3-4 FT FOR A SHORT
TIME...BEFORE FALLING ONCE AGAIN LATE WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN LATER THURSDAY ACROSS
ALL WATERS AND INCREASE IN MAGNITUDE EARLY FRIDAY AS A DECENT STORM
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. WARM ADVECTION OVER THE COLDER WATERS
WILL LIMIT TRANSFER OF STRONGER WINDS TO THE SURFACE KEEPING VALUES
JUST BELOW THE SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA OF 25 KNOTS FOR THE MOST PART. I
DO HAVE A BRIEF WINDOW OF 25 PLUS KNOTS EARLY SATURDAY AS THE LOW
LEVEL JET MAX MOVES ACROSS. NORTHERLY FLOW SETS UP ACROSS ALL WATERS
BY 1200 UTC SATURDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OFF RAPIDLY TO THE
NORTHEAST. SEAS WILL INCREASE FROM 2-3 FEET THURSDAY TO 5-8 FEET
LATER FRIDAY BEFORE GETTING WORKED OVER BY THE OFFSHORE FLOW
SATURDAY.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...DOUGH
SHORT TERM...JOSHUAW
LONG TERM...STEPHENK
AVIATION...SGL/RJD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
358 AM EST TUE JAN 24 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...PROVIDING A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER. LOW PRESSURE
TRAVELING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING PRECIPITATION LATE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE
BACK IN ON FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE WEST WILL MOVE INTO THE ILN AREA
TODAY. CLOUDS WILL PERSIST OVER NORTHERN COUNTIES INTO THIS
AFTERNOON UNTIL MOISTURE MOVES EAST AS PER LATEST RUC 1000-850MB
RELATIVE HUMIDITY. NUDGED TEMPERATURES UP SLIGHTLY TOWARD MAV
GUIDANCE...WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S
NORTHWEST TO THE MID 40S SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...PROVIDING
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LOWS IN THE 20S. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL
MOVE IN ON WEDNESDAY WELL AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE...WHICH WILL
CURTAIL SUNSHINE BY AFTERNOON. THE INCREASING CLOUDS AFTER A COOL
START WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN ON
TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY ALONG
AN AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHWEST.
THE PRECIPITATION WILL EXTEND UP THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH SOUTHERN
COUNTIES RECEIVING THE MOST. TEMPERATURE PROFILES INDICATE THAT
SNOW WILL MIX IN NORTH OF CINCINNATI AND PORTSMOUTH...BUT THE BULK
OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN NEAR THE OHIO
RIVER. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO 40 OR HIGHER ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WHICH WILL CHANCE ALL LINGERING PRECIPITATION TO RAIN.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY. MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH THIS
BOUNDARY SO CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IS LOW. LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT A SECONDARY TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH ON SUNDAY. BUT
TIMING FEATURES IN FAST NORTHWEST FLOW THAT FAR OUT IN TIME IS
PROBLEMATIC. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO START BUILDING IN ON
MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL EXCEPT OVER THE WEEKEND
WHEN THEY WILL COOL DOWN CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DEEP LOW PRESSURE N OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK N
INTO CANADA TODAY. EXTENSIVE FIELD OF CLOUDS EXISTS IN THE LOW
LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW ACRS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS MVFR SC DECK WILL
ROTATE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY ON
TUESDAY.
LATEST SATL IMGRY SHOWS SOME SLOW EROSION IS TAKING PLACE ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY ACRS SRN INDIANA. HAVE SLOWED THE CLEARING
PROGRESS BASED ON TRENDS WITH KCVG/KLUK SCATTERING OUT AROUND 10Z
BUT KEPT CLOUDS IN KDAY THRU LATE MORNING AND KCMH/KLCK UNTIL
EARLY AFTN. STILL EXPECT SCATTERED CU DURG THE DAY WITH CLEARING
TAKING PLACE LATE IN THE AFTN INTO EARLY EVENING.
OUTLOOK...IFR CONDITIONS MAY ACCOMPANY SNOW AND RAIN ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...AR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NWS RAPID CITY SD
223 AM MST TUE JAN 24 2012
.DISCUSSION...09Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW OVER NORTH CENTRAL CO
WITH TROUGH INTO WESTERN ND. WATER VAPOUR HAD UPPER TROUGH
STRETCHING FROM SOUTHERN SK INTO AZ. MAIN SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN AZ
AND MOVING ACROSS MT INTO ND. MAINLY A SHEAR AXIS TO MOVE THROUGH
THE CWA TODAY...BUT LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW RETURNS INCREASING
ACROSS THE CWA. 06Z RUC PICKS UP ON THIS TREND WITH MODEST BAND OF
FRONTOGENESIS ALONG TROUGH...WHICH WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY. 00Z KUNR SOUNDING AND MODIFIED 09Z FORECAST SOUNDING
STILL SHOWS LOWEST 2KM OF TROPOSPHERE FAIRLY DRY. SOME LIFT WILL
BE WASTED. WILL BE MAKING LAST MINUTE ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS BASED ON
LATEST TRENDS. A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED
BEHIND TROUGH IN THE SQUEEZE ZONE JUST NORTH THROUGH EAST OF THE
BLACK HILLS. TEMPERATURES NEAR GUIDANCE.
TONIGHT...WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE ALOFT PASSES THROUGH WITH HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTING SOUTH. RETURN FLOW STARTS IN EARNEST OVERNIGHT
AS SHORTWAVE ZIPS ACROSS THE MT/SK BORDER. TYPICAL AREAS IN
NORTHEASTERN WY/BLACK HILLS WILL SEE BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AS
WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISALLOBARIC FORCING COMMENCES.
WEDNESDAY...WARM FRONT QUICKLY MOVES EAST OF THE CWA WITH COLD
FRONT DROPPING INTO THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON AS SURFACE LOW
MOVES FROM SK INTO MB. DOWNSLOPE FLOW AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WILL
PROMOTE TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5-10F ABOVE NORMAL. WINDY SPOTS WILL
DEVELOP ON THE SD PLAINS. TEMPERATURES NEAR GUIDANCE.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY...UPPER FLOW BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY WITH A
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVING FROM AB INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.
BEST LIFT WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA WITH
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE MOST NOTABLE. TEMPERATURES NEAR GUIDANCE.
EXTENDED...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH A CANADIAN LOW
WILL PRODUCE BREEZY WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES...THOUGH STILL SEASONABLY
AVERAGE...ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. WARMER AIR WILL ADVECT IN
FROM THE WEST SUNDAY WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT
WEEK. SOME AREAS MAY SEE SOME RAIN OR SNOW SUNDAY AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...12Z TAFS
CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DETERIORATE TO
MVFR...WITH AREAS OF IFR...AS -SN DEVELOPS OVER NORTHEAST WYOMING
AND FAR WESTERN/SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
ACROSS FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS
RETURNING AREA WIDE BY 00Z.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM....CALDERON
AVIATION...CALDERON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1116 PM CST MON JAN 23 2012
.SHORT TERM...UPDATE
832 PM CST MON JAN 23 2012
HAVE MADE SOME UPDATES TO THE FORECAST FOR SKY CONDITIONS AND
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT AS A STRATUS DECK APPEARS TO BE HOLDING ON
TIGHT ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. LITTLE PROGRESS
HAS BEEN MADE ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STRATUS ACROSS THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ANY HOLES BREAKING INTO
THE THIN STRATUS DECK THROUGHOUT THE REGION. THE CLEARING ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE STRATUS APPEARS TO BE TIED TO THE SURFACE/LOW
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WHICH LOOKS LIKE IT WILL GET INTO SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA/NORTHEAST IOWA SOMETIME AFTER 12Z. THEREFORE...HAVE
SLOWED DOWN THE CLEARING A BIT AND KEPT TEMPERATURES UP ABOUT 5
DEGREES FOR THE OVERNIGHT LOWS DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER. WITH THE
23.18Z NAM AND 24.01Z RUC SOUNDINGS SHOWING AN INVERSION FROM
950MB UP TO 750MB INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON...AM NOT ENTIRELY
CONVINCED THAT SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT BY AFTERNOON DESPITE THE
NAM/RUC SHOWING FAIRLY QUICK DRYING OUT OF THE LOW LEVELS TUESDAY
MORNING.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
230 PM CST MON JAN 23 2012
QUIET WEATHER TO CONTINUE INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS WELL. ZONAL
FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK WHEN ALL THE
MODELS THEN SUGGEST A CUT OFF LOW SHOULD FORM SOME WHERE BETWEEN
HUDSON BAY AND THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES PLACING THE UPPER MIDWEST
ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE DEVELOPING LONG WAVE TROUGH. MODELS
DIFFER ON HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THIS SYSTEM
DEVELOPS. THE 23.12Z GFS IS ALMOST COMPLETELY DRY...THE 23.12Z
ECMWF WAS MUCH STRONGER WITH THE SURFACE LOW AND SHOWS SOME DECENT
PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...WHILE THE 23.12Z GEM SPLIT
THE DIFFERENCE WITH MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION OVER THE EASTERN
PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. FOR NOW...WILL USE THE MODEL CONSENSUS
GRIDS WHICH SHOW A LOW CHANCE OF SOME PRECIPITATION FOR FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY
1116 PM CST MON JAN 23 2012
THE FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON CEILINGS ACROSS THE REGION AS A MVFR
TO VFR STRATUS DECK REMAINS IN PLACE. WHILE MUCH OF THIS DECK IS
CURRENTLY BETWEEN 1KFT TO 2KFT...THERE ARE SOME HOLES STARTING TO
DEVELOP IN THE RELATIVELY CONTINUOUS LAYER OF STRATUS ACROSS
MINNESOTA. THIS INCLUDES A RATHER LARGE AREA THAT EXTENDS FROM
MANKATO NORTH TO ST CLOUD WHERE CEILINGS GO FROM THESE 1KFT TO
2KFT MVFR CONDITIONS UP TO 4KFT VFR CONDITIONS. THIS LIFT TO VFR
LOOKS TO BE INTO RST FAIRLY SOON AS WELL AS LSE AROUND 8/9Z. THE
QUESTION IS HOW LONG THEY WILL LAST AT THAT HEIGHT OR IF THEY WILL
DROP BACK DOWN AT SOME POINT. GIVEN THAT THIS AREA OF VFR CEILINGS
EXTENDS SO FAR UPSTREAM IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW...WOULD EXPECT THAT
THEY PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE MORNING AND HAVE TRENDED
THAT WAY IN THE TAFS. ALSO HAVE BACKED UP THE OVERALL CLEARING A
FEW HOURS TUESDAY MORNING GIVEN THE SLOWER TREND OF THE CLEARING.
MORE MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TUESDAY
EVENING AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
230 PM CST MON JAN 23 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HALBACH
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...HALBACH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
614 AM MST TUE JAN 24 2012
.UPDATE...
&&
.SHORT TERM...NO CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
.AVIATION...PRECIPITATION NOW BEGINNING TO FORM UP JUST SOUTH
OF THE CHEYENNE RIDGE IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH
THROUGH LARIMER...WELD AND LOGAN COUNTIES. AT ITS PRESENT SPEND
SHOULD SEE THE FRONT INTO THE DENVER AREA BY 14Z OR SO. WILL SEE
NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10-15 MPH FOLLOWING ITS A PASSAGE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. CLOUD CEILINGS ALSO COMING DOWN WITH
MVFR CIGS IN THE DENVER AREA IN THE NEXT ONE-TWO HOURS. BY MID TO
LATE MORNING COULD SEE CIGS LOWERING TO BELOW 3000 FT AGL AND
POSSIBLY BELOW 2000 FT ALG WITH PASSING SNOW SHOWERS. NOT
EXPECTING MORE THAN A HALF INCH OF SNOW WITH THE HEAVIER SHOWERS
LATER THIS MORNING. DURING THE AFTERNOON SHOULD SEE GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT IN CEILING HEIGHTS AND A REDUCTION IN SHOWER ACTIVITY
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH. BY THE
EVENING EXPECT TO SEE NORTHWEST WINDS USHERING IN DRIER AIR AND
A CONTINUATION OF THE CLEARING BEGUN LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
SHOULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS IN THE DENVER AREA NOT TOO LONG AFTER
6 PM TODAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 AM MST TUE JAN 24 2012/
SHORT TERM...ELONGATED UPPER AIR TROUGH JUST TO OUR WEST MAKES
SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. JET LEVEL
ENERGY AND QG DIVERGENCE SWINGING ACROSS WESTERN WYOMING ATTM AS
INDICATED BY THE BANDED CLOUD SHIELD AND PCPN FIELD IN THE AREA.
THIS FEATURE SHOULD PROVIDE THE LIFT NECESSARY FOR SHOWER
PRODUCTION LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON DOWN HERE. ALSO
WAITING FOR THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT JUST ABOUT READY TO DROP
SOUTH OF THE COLORADO/WYOMING LINE. LAPS AND RUC INDICATING 2-5 MB
3-HR PRESSURE RISES IN THE COLDER AIR ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL
WYOMING. NAM SHOWS THIS RISE COUPLET SHIFTING TO SERN WY BY MID-
MORNING AND DOWN ACROSS NERN CO ON GUSTY NLY SFC WINDS BY MIDDAY.
MODELS DIFFER ON THE AMOUNT OF SHOWER COVERAGE/QPF/SNOW AMOUNTS
WITH THIS SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED SYSTEM. MODELS GENERALLY AGREE
THAT THE BULK OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TODAY IN NERN COLORADO WILL
PROBABLY NOT OCCUR UNTIL AFTER THE 10-20KT N-NELY POST FRONTAL
WINDS KICK IN MID TO LATE MORNING. FURTHERMORE MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW A BAND OF 1-2 INCH SNOW AMOUNTS ACROSS ERN DOUGLAS...WRN
ELBERT...AND CNTRL ADAMS AND ARAPAHOE COUNTIES BY 21Z TODAY. EVEN
THOUGH BNDRY LAYER MOISTURE DOESN/T LOOK ALL THAT GREAT BASED ON
MODEL SOUNDINGS...THE LIFT GENERATED BY THE PASSING TROUGH AND
UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD BE ADEQUATE TO GENERATE AMOUNTS SOMEWHERE
WITHIN THIS RANGE DOWN THERE. IN THE DENVER METRO AREA AND POINTS
NORTH...ANY SNOW AMOUNTS TODAY SHOULD BE MINIMAL...WHILE THE EAST
FACE OF THE FRONT RANGE COULD PICK UP AN INCH OR TWO WITH LATE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON CONVECTION. IN THE HIGH COUNTRY...SET
UP DOES NOT LOOK ALL THAT FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL. SWLY
700-500MB FLOW QUICKLY TURNS N-NWLY WITH PASSAGE OF THE MID-LEVEL
TROUGH LATE THIS MORNING...WHICH IS NOT ALL THAT GREAT FOR
OROGRAPHIC SNOWFALL. SPEEDS ALSO NOT THAT STRONG WITH THIS SYSTEM.
700-500MB TROUGH AXIS AND BEST QG ASCENT PROGGED TO PASS OVER THE
NORTHEAST PLAINS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND OUT OF THE STATE BY
EVENING..FOLLOWING BY STRONG DRYING WHICH SHOULD QUICKLY CLEAR
SKIES FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. CLEARING OVERNIGHT WILL ALLOW
FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN THE COLDEST
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES OF THE WEEK.
LONG TERM...FOR WEDNESDAY...A DRY DAY WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES BEHIND TUESDAY`S DISTURBANCE AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ALOFT INTO COLORADO. THE FLOW ALOFT THEN BECOMES A FAST AND
ZONAL NORTHWEST FLOW FOR THURSDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THERE IS A FAST MOVING WAVE WHICH TRAVERSES THE STATE ON
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. COLDER TEMPERATURES AND LOOKS LIKE A
FAIRLY HEALTHY COLD FRONT WHICH PUSHES SOUTH EARLY IN THE DAY.
BOTH GFS/NAM INDICATE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW BUT IT
IS A FAST MOVING FEATURE SO SOMETIMES MOISTURE AND WINDS MAY BE
SUSPECT. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE ONGOING FORECAST WITH A GOOD BET
OF COLDER TEMPERATURES AND CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
PLAINS. DRIER AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND WITH CONTINUED DRY...NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT.
AVIATION...
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM....ENTREKIN
AVIATION...BAKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
417 AM MST TUE JAN 24 2012
.SHORT TERM...ELONGATED UPPER AIR TROUGH JUST TO OUR WEST MAKES
SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. JET LEVEL
ENERGY AND QG DIVERGENCE SWINGING ACROSS WESTERN WYOMING ATTM AS
INDICATED BY THE BANDED CLOUD SHIELD AND PCPN FIELD IN THE AREA.
THIS FEATURE SHOULD PROVIDE THE LIFT NECESSARY FOR SHOWER
PRODUCTION LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON DOWN HERE. ALSO
WAITING FOR THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT JUST ABOUT READY TO DROP
SOUTH OF THE COLORADO/WYOMING LINE. LAPS AND RUC INDICATING 2-5 MB
3-HR PRESSURE RISES IN THE COLDER AIR ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL
WYOMING. NAM SHOWS THIS RISE COUPLET SHIFTING TO SERN WY BY MID-
MORNING AND DOWN ACROSS NERN CO ON GUSTY NLY SFC WINDS BY MIDDAY.
MODELS DIFFER ON THE AMOUNT OF SHOWER COVERAGE/QPF/SNOW AMOUNTS
WITH THIS SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED SYSTEM. MODELS GENERALLY AGREE
THAT THE BULK OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TODAY IN NERN COLORADO WILL
PROBABLY NOT OCCUR UNTIL AFTER THE 10-20KT N-NELY POST FRONTAL
WINDS KICK IN MID TO LATE MORNING. FURTHERMORE MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW A BAND OF 1-2 INCH SNOW AMOUNTS ACROSS ERN DOUGLAS...WRN
ELBERT...AND CNTRL ADAMS AND ARAPAHOE COUNTIES BY 21Z TODAY. EVEN
THOUGH BNDRY LAYER MOISTURE DOESN/T LOOK ALL THAT GREAT BASED ON
MODEL SOUNDINGS...THE LIFT GENERATED BY THE PASSING TROUGH AND
UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD BE ADEQUATE TO GENERATE AMOUNTS SOMEWHERE
WITHIN THIS RANGE DOWN THERE. IN THE DENVER METRO AREA AND POINTS
NORTH...ANY SNOW AMOUNTS TODAY SHOULD BE MINIMAL...WHILE THE EAST
FACE OF THE FRONT RANGE COULD PICK UP AN INCH OR TWO WITH LATE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON CONVECTION. IN THE HIGH COUNTRY...SET
UP DOES NOT LOOK ALL THAT FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL. SWLY
700-500MB FLOW QUICKLY TURNS N-NWLY WITH PASSAGE OF THE MID-LEVEL
TROUGH LATE THIS MORNING...WHICH IS NOT ALL THAT GREAT FOR
OROGRAPHIC SNOWFALL. SPEEDS ALSO NOT THAT STRONG WITH THIS SYSTEM.
700-500MB TROUGH AXIS AND BEST QG ASCENT PROGGED TO PASS OVER THE
NORTHEAST PLAINS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND OUT OF THE STATE BY
EVENING..FOLLOWING BY STRONG DRYING WHICH SHOULD QUICKLY CLEAR
SKIES FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. CLEARING OVERNIGHT WILL ALLOW
FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN THE COLDEST
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES OF THE WEEK.
.LONG TERM...FOR WEDNESDAY...A DRY DAY WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES BEHIND TUESDAY`S DISTURBANCE AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ALOFT INTO COLORADO. THE FLOW ALOFT THEN BECOMES A FAST AND
ZONAL NORTHWEST FLOW FOR THURSDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THERE IS A FAST MOVING WAVE WHICH TRAVERSES THE STATE ON
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. COLDER TEMPERATURES AND LOOKS LIKE A
FAIRLY HEALTHY COLD FRONT WHICH PUSHES SOUTH EARLY IN THE DAY.
BOTH GFS/NAM INDICATE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW BUT IT
IS A FAST MOVING FEATURE SO SOMETIMES MOISTURE AND WINDS MAY BE
SUSPECT. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE ONGOING FORECAST WITH A GOOD BET
OF COLDER TEMPERATURES AND CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
PLAINS. DRIER AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND WITH CONTINUED DRY...NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT.
&&
.AVIATION...
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM....ENTREKIN
AVIATION...BAKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
544 AM CST TUE JAN 24 2012
.AVIATION...
CLOUD TRENDS SO FAR THIS MORNING SUGGEST CLEARING WILL OCCUR
LATER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. THE NEW SET OF TAFS WAS ISSUED WITH
MVFR/LOWER END VFR CIGS REMAINING OVER THE AREA UNTIL MID TO LATE
MORNING. ONCE THE CLOUDS CLEAR OUT THEN VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. ..DLF..
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 AM CST TUE JAN 24 2012/
SYNOPSIS...
A H5 LOW WAS LOCATED OVER LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY EVENING WITH
RIDGING OVER THE PLAINS AHEAD A S/W OVER THE ROCKIES. AT THE
SURFACE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND A SWRN ONTARIO LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED
WEST TO A SURFACE RIDGE FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS THROUGH SW IA AND
CENTRAL MO EARLY THIS MORNING. STRATUS IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW
EXTENDED TO THE PLAINS RIDGE AXIS.
SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
CLOUD TRENDS WILL DOMINATE THE SHORT TERM WITH A STUBBORN STRATUS
FIELD OVER THE AREA...THEN MID/HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING OVER THE
AREA TONIGHT...AHEAD OF THE S/W MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT.
MODEL RH PROGS ARE OFFERING LITTLE HELP WITH THE STRATUS DECK THIS
MORNING SHOWING A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF DRYING OVER THE CWA BY
12Z. CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS DO NO SUPPORT THIS WITH THE WEST AND
SOUTH EDGES OF THE CLOUD SHIELD MOVING LITTLE SINCE 06Z. THERE WAS
A NARROW AREA OF CLEARING EMBEDDED IN THE STRATUS OVER MN WHICH
THE MODELS WERE DEPICTING. BUT THE CLEARING HAS NOT EXPANDED MUCH
THE LAST FEW HOURS. LOOKING A SOME LOW LEVEL VERTICAL MOTION PROGS
THE RUC AND NAM BOTH SHOW AN INCREASE IN DVM OVER EASTERN IA BY
MID MORNING SO WILL BANK ON THIS AS AN INDICATOR THAT THE RATE OF
CLEARING WILL PICK UP BY MID MORNING. THE LATEST GRIDS WILL HOLD
CLOUDY SKIES OVER AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH CLEARING SPREADING
EAST LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE SLOWER
CLEARING TREND WILL IMPACT TODAY/S HIGHS AND HAVE ADJUSTED MAX
TEMPS DOWN A LITTLE IN THE NORTHEAST WHERE THE CLOUDS WILL LINGER
THE LONGEST.
MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL STREAM BACK OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING AHEAD
OF THE PLAINS SHORT WAVE. THE MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING MUCH AND KEPT MINS IN THE LOWER 20S
CENTRAL AND SOUTH. SNOW COVER IN THE NORTH AND A LATER ARRIVAL
TIME OF THE CLOUDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES OVER THE NORTHERN CWFA
TO DROP OFF QUICKLY THIS EVENING INTO THE TEENS THEN STEADY OUT
THE REST OF THE NIGHT. ..DLF..
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BULK OF LATEST RUN 00Z MODELS CONTINUE THE
IDEA OF AN ALMOST SPLIT FLOW TYPE REGIME AND UN-PHASED SOLUTIONS IN
HANDLING OF A SOUTHERN STREAM CUT-OFF UPPER CYCLONE AND A MORE
DOMINANT NORTHERN STREAM WAVE PULSE RIPPLING ALONG THE MID-CONUS/GRT
LKS U.S. AND CANADIAN BORDER REGIONS THIS PERIOD. THUS WITH THE DVN
CWA REMAINING IN BETWEEN THESE TWO ACTIVE REGIONS...CHANCES ARE FOR
A MAINLY DRY PERIOD. LEAD VORT IN THIS FLOW AND WAA SHOULD PRODUCE
CLOUDS ON WED AND POSSIBLY SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIP IN OR NEAR THE
CWA AND NOT WORTH MENTIONING AT THIS POINT. A LARGER UPPER WAVE IN
THE NORTHERN STREAM DIGGING ACRS THE NW GRT LKS WILL THEN LOOK
TO TRY AND PHASE/INTERACT WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM LOW OVER
TX BY THU. MOST OF THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE PRECIP SHIELD OFF
THIS PROCESS SHOULD REMAIN JUST OFF TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE
DVN CWA THROUGH THU NIGHT...AGAIN WITH MAYBE JUST SOME VERY LIGHT
PRECIP GENERATED ACRS THE LOCAL AREA BY FORCING FROM THE MID LEVEL
TROF AXIS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING IF
ADEQUATE MOISTURE DEPTH WOULD OCCUR WHICH IS STILL UNCERTAIN AT THIS
POINT. ONLY THE LATEST UKMET PHASES THESE SYSTEMS IN A WAY THAT
DEF ZONE PRECIP IN THE FORM OF RAIN AND SNOW IMPACTS THE SOUTHEASTERN
CWA ON THU. FOR NOW WILL IGNORE THAT SOLUTION AND KEEP THE FCST DRY.
WITH ERODED SNOW COVER...PROJECTED THERMAL MODERATION THROUGH THIS
PERIOD SUPPORTS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ESPECIALLY ON THU WHEN PRE-TROF
WAA COULD BOOST TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S IN MUCH OF THE
SOUTHERN 2/3S OF THE FCST AREA ALONG WITH PARTIAL INSOLATION. POST-
TROF COLD AIR ADVECTION ALONG WITH LOW TO MID LEVEL RIDGING SLIDING
EAST ACRS MUCH OF THE LENGTH OF THE MS RVR VALLEY...SHOULD LEAD TO A
MAINLY CLEAR AND COOL NIGHT THU NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS TO
LOWER 20S.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE NEW 00Z RUN ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE
CONSISTENT WITH THE NEXT CLIPPER TYPE WAVE RIPPLING DOWN IN
PROGRESSIVE WEST-NORTH-WESTERLIES AND IS COLD ENOUGH FOR MAINLY SNOW
BY KATE FRI AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING WITH 1-2 INCHES POSSIBLE.
THE FAR SOUTH COULD HAVE A MIX WITH PRE-SYSTEM WARM AIR ADVECTION
AFFECTING THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THE NEW 00Z RUN GFS IS LESS BULLISH
WITH THE WAVE AND FURTHER SOUTHWEST MAINLY MISSING THE AREA. FOR
NOW WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC POPS GOING. NEG ARCTIC OSCILLATION
FLUCTUATIONS AGREE WITH MEDIUM RANGE PROGS AND ENSEMBLES OF
DIGGING L/W TROF PATTERN OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL LEAD TO A
COLDER BLUSTERY SAT BEHIND THE FRI SYSTEM WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
20S TO MID 30S AND PASSING SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES IN TIGHTENING
CYCLONIC FLOW.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...COLDER DAY IN STORE FOR SUNDAY THAN SAT IN
SECOND DAY OF GRT LKS L/W TROFFINESS...BUT MAYBE LESS FLURRIES/SNOW
SHOWERS IF ANY AT ALL. HIGHS IN THE 20S. LONG RANGE SIGNALS AND A
POS TRENDING AO THEN SUGGEST FLATTENING FLOW PATTERN INTO EARLY/MID
NEXT WEEK FOR THERMAL MODERATION BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL. DEPENDING ON
PHASING AND TIMING...THIS PATTERN TO CONTINUE TO BE ACTIVE AND
POSSIBLY USHER ANOTHER SYSTEM THROUGH THE MIDWEST SIMILAR TO WHAT
JUST HAPPENED THIS PAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BY NEXT TUE OR WED.
.12..
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
915 AM EST TUE JAN 24 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PASS NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY WITH A
WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON. A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION FROM QUEBEC LATER
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE FOR THIS UPDATE. THE MAIN CONCERN
THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO BE AREAS OF FOG...SO KEPT THE MENTION
OF THIS THROUGH MID-MORNING. ALSO ADJUSTED SKY COVER UP A BIT
THIS MORNING AS SATELLITE SHOWS PLENTY OF CLOUDS BLANKETING THE
STATE. NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...RADAR DEPICTING STEADIER RAFL MAKING ITS
WAY ACROSS THE EASTERN 3RD OF THE CWA W/THE SATL IR IMAGERY LINING
UP W/THE ENHANCEMENT IN THE SAME REGION. THE GFS AND RUC LINING UP
QUITE WELL W/THE RAFL AT 06Z AND FOLLOWED THIS BLEND THROUGH TODAY
W/RAIN ENDING THIS MORNING W/SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH MID
MORNING AND THEN ENDING. THE GFSBC WAS BLENDED W/THE LAMP GUIDANCE
WHICH SHOWED A SURGE OF WARMER AIR PUSHING IN ACROSS THE EASTERN
1/2 OF THE CWA THIS MORNING. DECIDED TO BRING TEMPERATURES UP
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA TO NEAR 40F AND MID TO
UPPER 40S FROM HOULTON DOWN THROUGH WASHINGTON COUNTY AND SOUTH
THROUGH THE BANGOR AND BAR HARBOR REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL LEVEL
OFF LATER THIS MORNING AND THEN MAKE THEIR DECLINE AS SOME
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION. THIS IS ALREADY
TAKING PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN NH AND SW MAINE.
SOME WEAK RIDGING IS SHOWN BY THE GFS AND THE NAM TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION THIS EVENING W/SOME PARTIAL CLEARING. THIS WILL BE SHORT
LIVED HOWEVER AS THE UPPER TROF AND SFC COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE
STATE LATER IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE
ENOUGH FORCING TO KICK OFF SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTH AND WEST. CARRIED 30-40% POPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND
WESTERN AREAS. FURTHER EAST, FORCING LOOKS WEAK W/20% ADDED FOR
SOME FLURRIES OR A SNOW SHOWER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
FOR LATE JANUARY W/READINGS DROPPING BACK TO THE UPPER TEENS AND
LOWER 20S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WELL NORTHEAST OF THE REGION
ON WEDNESDAY. EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE NORTH AND
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DOWNEAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION ON
THURSDAY. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM ZERO TO 5 ABOVE
NORTH AND 10 TO 15 DOWNEAST. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOW TO MID 20S NORTH AND UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S DOWNEAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE STARTS
TO DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTHWEST. THIS LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TOWARD
THE REGION DURING FRIDAY AND THEN NORTHEAST INTO THE MARITIMES
FRIDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION
DURING FRIDAY. ACROSS THE NORTH PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE FORM OF SNOW WITH RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS DOWNEAST. THE LOW
WILL THEN TRACK TO OUR NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS. ANOTHER LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SOMEWHERE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST SUNDAY AND THEN TRACK NORTHEAST
SUNDAY NIGHT. DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK AND TIMING OF THIS
SYSTEM THERE COULD BE ANOTHER PERIOD OF SNOW LATER SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE JUST WENT WITH THE A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
WITH THIS SYSTEM FOR NOW SINCE THIS IS STILL ALONG WAY OUT AND
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TO THE
REGION FOR NEXT MONDAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL BE
NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL FRO THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR FOR ALL TERMINALS THIS MORNING GIVING WAY TO MVFR
BY MID MORNING AND THEN IT LOOKS LIKE VFR BY THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE NORTHERN TERMINALS(CAR-PQI &
HUL) AS CIGS COULD VERY WELL HIT MVFR LATER TONIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.
SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT IN WINTRY
PRECIPITATION. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN RETURN FOR SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS/SEAS ARE
AOA SCA LEVELS ATTM. THERE WILL BE A LULL IN THE WINDS LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. WINDS LOOK LIKE THEY WILL PICK UP
AGAIN TONIGHT W/THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROF. CARRIED GUSTS TO 25
KTS AS THINKING IS THAT SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE 15-20 KTS. SEAS
WILL STAY UP ABOVE SCA THROUGH TONIGHT. A BLEND OF THE SWAN AND
WNAWAVE WAS USED FOR THE SEAS WHICH KEEP HEIGHTS AOA 6 FT.
SHORT TERM: WIND/SEAS SHOULD BE BELOW SCA LEVELS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...THEN INCREASE TO SCA LEVELS BY FRIDAY.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...HASTINGS/HEWITT
MARINE...HASTINGS/HEWITT/
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
603 AM EST TUE JAN 24 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PASS NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY WITH A
WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON. A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION FROM QUEBEC LATER
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TEMPERATURES ARE THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE FOR THIS TERM.
UPDATE...MODIFIED TEMPERATURES W/THE CURRENT READINGS SHOWING THE
WARMING TREND. SOME OF THE LOWER AREAS SUCH BLANCHARD IN
PISCATAQUIS COUNTY ARE STILL HOVERING IN THE LOWER 30S. ELSEWHERE,
TEMPERATURES ARE WELL ABOVE FREEZING W/MELTING OCCURRING. EXPECTING
SOME SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD AID IN MORE MELTING
BEFORE THE COOLER AIR SETTLES IN. PUSHED STEADY RAIN INTO NEW
BRUNSWICK USING THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND THEREFORE DROPPED THE
POPS BACK THROUGH THIS MORNING.
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
RADAR DEPICTING STEADIER RAFL MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE EASTERN
3RD OF THE CWA W/THE SATL IR IMAGERY LINING UP W/THE ENHANCEMENT
IN THE SAME REGION. THE GFS AND RUC LINING UP QUITE WELL W/THE
RAFL AT 06Z AND FOLLOWED THIS BLEND THROUGH TODAY W/RAIN ENDING
THIS MORNING W/SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH MID MORNING AND THEN
ENDING. THE GFSBC WAS BLENDED W/THE LAMP GUIDANCE WHICH SHOWED A
SURGE OF WARMER AIR PUSHING IN ACROSS THE EASTERN 1/2 OF THE CWA
THIS MORNING. DECIDED TO BRING TEMPERATURES UP ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE CWA TO NEAR 40F AND MID TO UPPER 40S FROM HOULTON
DOWN THROUGH WASHINGTON COUNTY AND SOUTH THROUGH THE BANGOR AND
BAR HARBOR REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL LEVEL OFF LATER THIS MORNING
AND THEN MAKE THEIR DECLINE AS SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR FILTERS
INTO THE REGION. THIS IS ALREADY TAKING PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN NH
AND SW MAINE.
SOME WEAK RIDGING IS SHOWN BY THE GFS AND THE NAM TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION THIS EVENING W/SOME PARTIAL CLEARING. THIS WILL BE SHORT
LIVED HOWEVER AS THE UPPER TROF AND SFC COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE
STATE LATER IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE
ENOUGH FORCING TO KICK OFF SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTH AND WEST. CARRIED 30-40% POPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND
WESTERN AREAS. FURTHER EAST, FORCING LOOKS WEAK W/20% ADDED FOR
SOME FLURRIES OR A SNOW SHOWER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
FOR LATE JANUARY W/READINGS DROPPING BACK TO THE UPPER TEENS AND
LOWER 20S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WELL NORTHEAST OF THE REGION
ON WEDNESDAY. EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE NORTH AND
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DOWNEAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION ON
THURSDAY. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM ZERO TO 5 ABOVE
NORTH AND 10 TO 15 DOWNEAST. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOW TO MID 20S NORTH AND UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S DOWNEAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE STARTS
TO DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTHWEST. THIS LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TOWARD
THE REGION DURING FRIDAY AND THEN NORTHEAST INTO THE MARITIMES
FRIDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION
DURING FRIDAY. ACROSS THE NORTH PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE FORM OF SNOW WITH RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS DOWNEAST. THE LOW
WILL THEN TRACK TO OUR NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS. ANOTHER LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SOMEWHERE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST SUNDAY AND THEN TRACK NORTHEAST
SUNDAY NIGHT. DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK AND TIMING OF THIS
SYSTEM THERE COULD BE ANOTHER PERIOD OF SNOW LATER SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE JUST WENT WITH THE A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
WITH THIS SYSTEM FOR NOW SINCE THIS IS STILL ALONG WAY OUT AND
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TO THE
REGION FOR NEXT MONDAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL BE
NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL FRO THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR FOR ALL TERMINALS THIS MORNING GIVING WAY TO MVFR
BY MID MORNING AND THEN IT LOOKS LIKE VFR BY THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE NORTHERN TERMINALS(CAR-PQI &
HUL) AS CIGS COULD VERY WELL HIT MVFR LATER TONIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.
SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT IN WINTRY
PRECIPITATION. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN RETURN FOR SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS/SEAS ARE
AOA SCA LEVELS ATTM. THERE WILL BE A LULL IN THE WINDS LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. WINDS LOOK LIKE THEY WILL PICK UP
AGAIN TONIGHT W/THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROF. CARRIED GUSTS TO 25
KTS AS THINKING IS THAT SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE 15-20 KTS. SEAS
WILL STAY UP ABOVE SCA THROUGH TONIGHT. A BLEND OF THE SWAN AND
WNAWAVE WAS USED FOR THE SEAS WHICH KEEP HEIGHTS AOA 6 FT.
SHORT TERM: WIND/SEAS SHOULD BE BELOW SCA LEVELS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...THEN INCREASE TO SCA LEVELS BY FRIDAY.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
1023 AM EST TUE JAN 24 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
IT WILL BE BRISK AND COOLER TODAY AS COLD AIR MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION WITH HIGH PRESSURE. SKIES WILL CLEAR LATE DAY WITH DRY AND
SEASONABLE CONDITIONS INTO WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST FROM TEXAS THURSDAY BRINGING RAIN INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WITH 1030AM UPDATE...USED 12Z NAM/14Z HRRR TO BETTER HIGHLIGHT
HOURLY TEMPERATURE TRENDS. ALTHOUGH SOUTHERN COUNTIES MAY SEE A
SLIGHT RISE IN TEMPERATURES WITH DECREASING CLOUD COVER IN THE
AFTERNOON...MOST OTHER LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE RELATIVELY STEADY
TEMPERATURE THROUGH THE DAY. HAVE REMOVED SNOW SHOWERS FROM THE
FORECAST...WITH THE HRRR THE ONLY HIGH-RESOLUTION MODEL SHOWING
ANY SNOW...AND SNOW APPEARING TO REMAIN IN CLEVELAND FORECAST AREA
WITH NO RADAR RETURNS FROM KPIT. SURFACE RIDGE WILL BRING DRY
AIR AND CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE NORTHEAST FROM TEXAS WHILE A NORTHERN
STREAM COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD ACROSS REGION LATER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND WILL LIKELY START AS A LIGHT MIX. AS DEEPER MOISTURE
ARRIVES THURSDAY MORNING WITH STRONG WARM ADVECTION ON FRONT SIDE OF
LOW THERE WILL BE A QUICK SWITCH TO ALL RAIN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.
ONLY A BRIEF PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIP EXPECTED.
MODELS ARE NOW BRINGING SURFACE LOW FARTHER WEST UP THE OHIO
VALLEY THURSDAY WITH A WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE NEW JERSEY COAST BY FRIDAY
MORNING WITH STEADY RAIN BECOMING MIXED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
TOWARD DAYBREAK FRIDAY AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND SURFACE LOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MIXED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY IN NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND
SURFACE LOW WRAPPING UP OFFSHORE OF NEW ENGLAND.
WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAM DEVELOPING A COLD TROUGH OVER
CENTRAL CANADA THIS WEEKEND, THE NORTHERN JET STREAM BRANCH WILL
PROMOTE ADDITIONAL PLAINS-BRED COLD FRONTS TO MOVE EASTWARD
THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY AND MONDAY.
REGARDING TEMPERATURE DETAILS, PER RECENT HPC GUIDANCE AND NAEFS
MODEL OUTPUT, FORECASTED A COOL DOWN IN TEMPERATURES IN THE WAKE OF
THURSDAY NIGHT`S SYSTEMS, WITH VALUES PERHAPS AS COLD AS 5 TO 10
DEGREES COLDER THAN NORMAL IN THE WAKE OF SATURDAY`S COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. HENCE WHATEVER PRECIPITATION COMES SUNDAY INTO EARLY
MONDAY, IT WILL BE SHOWERS OF SNOW RATHER THAN RAIN.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PER BLEND OF RECENT SURFACE AND SATELLITE DATA, COUPLED WITH
RECENT GFS LAMP AND NAM MODEL PROFILES, EXPECT COLD POOL
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD BANK ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TO LINGER
INTO EVENING. TREND SHOULD BE FOR MVFR CEILINGS TO LIFT TO VFR
LEVELS LATE THIS AFTERNOON, EXCEPT PERHAPS KFKL AND KDUJ. NAM MODEL
PROFILES SHOW STRONG CAPPING INVERSION AT 3-4 KFT AGL, SO NO
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE WEST SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS TO 20-25
KTS.
WINDS SUBSIDE TONIGHT AND CAPPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LOWERS TO
WHERE IT CAN TRANSFORM INTO A SURFACE RADIATIONAL INVERSION. WILL
FULLY CONSIDER IMPACT OF THIS WITH LATER TAF UPDATE. FOR NOW HAVE
REDEVELOPMENT OF MVFR STRATUS AFTER 06Z.
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
VFR WEDNESDAY. MIXED PRECIPITATION AND RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST FROM TEXAS. AN
ADDITIONAL PERIOD OF RESTRICTIONS IS POSSIBLE WITH A COLD FRONTAL
BAND OF SHOWERS SATURDAY.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
615 AM CST TUE JAN 24 2012
.UPDATE...
12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION ADDED BELOW.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
CLOUDINESS CONTINUES OVER MUCH OF THE FA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A
SMALL HOLE HAVING OPENED AROUND KSTC INTO THE TWIN CITIES. THE
CLOUDINESS SHOULD BREAKUP RATHER QUICKLY THIS MORNING AS THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW BECOMES ANTICYCLONIC. AN EXCEPTION WOULD BE OVER OUR WI
COUNTIES WHICH WILL TAKE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CONTINUED CLOSE
TO MOS FOR HIGHS TODAY GIVEN THE WARM START WE HAVE THIS MORNING.
THE FORECAST AHEAD IS STARTING TO TURN INTO A MESSY ONE. A FAST
WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL DELIVER A SHORT WAVE
ABOUT EVERY 24 TO 36 HOURS RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODEL RUNS
ARE ACTUALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT UNTIL ABOUT SUNDAY.
THE FIRST CONCERN IS A WAVE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THALER QG AND INSTANTANEOUS PRECIPITATION RATE WOULD FAVOR SOME
LIGHT QPF FROM SOUTHERN MN INTO WEST CENTRAL WI. SPC/NMM/ARW WRFS
ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH PATCHY 20 DBZ 1KM REF SHOWING UP. TIME-
HEIGHT DATA SHOWS SOME DIFFICULTY WITH THE LOW LEVEL
SATURATION...WHICH YIELDS A LOW AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION. ANOTHER
CONCERN IS A WARM NOSE AROUND 900 MB. BUFKIT DATA SUGGEST A BRIEF
PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE. BUT THE REAL SURPRISE IS THE
ECMWF WHICH HAS PRECIP ACROSS OUR ENTIRE CWA WITH UP TO 9
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH FROM KFSD THROUGH THE TWIN CITIES TO
NORTHERN WI. CONSENSUS WAS TO ADD SOME SMALL POPS FROM SOUTH
CENTRAL MN THROUGH THE TWIN CITIES AND ON ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WI
WHERE THE FORCING IS BEST. THE MAIN STUMBLING BLOCK IS WHETHER OR
NOT WE CAN SATURATE THE LOW LEVELS. IF THE ECMWF CONTINUES THIS
EXPANSION TODAY...THEN MUCH HIGHER POPS AND SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS WILL NEED TO BE ADDED.
THE NEXT WAVE IS ON THURSDAY...BUT PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE
MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF US. A STRONGER WAVE IS SHOWN TO PASS
ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. THE FORECAST CONTINUES WITH SMALL POP
CHANCES BUT ONCE AGAIN THE ECMWF IS MUCH STRONGER WITH UP TO TWO
TENTHS OF QPF ALONG WITH A NEARLY CLOSED H7 LOW PASSING ACROSS
CENTRAL MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI. THIS IS ANOTHER ONE THAT WILL NEED
TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY.
A TREND TO A COLDER NORTHWEST FLOW OCCURS FOR THE WEEKEND. SOME
LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES COULD OCCUR ON SATURDAY AS YET ANOTHER WAVE
MOVES THROUGH. KEPT MOST OF THE CWA DRY FOR NOW WITH SNOW CHANCES
IN PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL WI WHERE BETTER LAYER MOISTURE EXISTS.
TIMING DIFFERENCES REALLY SHOW UP BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF FROM
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH THE NEXT WAVE ALONG WITH IMPRESSIVE LOW
LEVEL WAA. THE GFS WOULD FAVOR A SWATH OF SNOW MOVING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE CWA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF WOULD
FAVOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. EITHER WAY...A COUPLE INCHES OF
SNOW WOULD BE POSSIBLE.
ALTHOUGH JUST BEYOND THIS FORECAST PERIOD...LONGER RANGE
PROJECTIONS FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST A LOW PRESSURE STORM
SYSTEM TRYING TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY WHICH COULD BRING BRING US... MORE SNOW... IF THIS
HAPPENS.
&&
.AVIATION.../12Z TAF ISSUANCE/
STRATUS CONTINUES TO HOLD STRONG ACROSS THE AREA AS LOW LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS HAS ONLY MADE IT TO THE WRN MN BORDER. COMPLICATING
THINGS A BIT THIS MORNING IS A NICE HOLE IN THE CLOUDS THAT IS
STARTING OUT OVER MSP/RNH. BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE
TRENDS...THE CLEARING WILL LIKELY SKIRT BY EAU TO THE WEST...WITH
RNH/MSP QUICKLY GOING BACK INTO MVFR CLOUDS AS BACK SIDE OF
STRATUS MOVES THROUGH. CONTINUED TO SLOW CLEARING OF STRATUS TO
THE EAST WITH 12Z TAFS...FOLLOWING THE 925MB RIDGE AXIS ON THE
GFS...WHICH DOES NOT CLEAR EAU UNTIL NEARLY 06Z. AFTER
THAT...CONCERNS TURN TO TONIGHT WHEN ANOTHER POTENTIAL BATCH OF
SNOW LOOKS TO COME UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST. BIG ISSUE WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE THE DRY LOW LEVELS OUT AHEAD OF IT AND THERE ARE
CONCERNS THAT IT WILL NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH MORE THAN VIRGA/FLURRIES.
AT THIS POINT...ADDED VCSH MENTION AT MSP/RNH/EAU...BUT SOME
PREVAILING SNOW COULD BE NEEDED IT IT DOES LOOK LIKE WE WILL BE
ABLE TO OVERCOME THE DRY AIR. FOR P-TYPE...IT WOULD BE ALL SNOW
FOR MPX TERMINALS...WITH ANY MIX CONFINED TO SRN MN.
KMSP...NEXT ROUND OF STRATUS TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST HAS HAD
SOLID MVFR CONDITIONS ALL NIGHT...SO EXPECT RESTRICTED CONDITIONS
TO RETURN AS CLEARING MOVES EAST. CIGS GENERALLY 010-015...SO MAY
GO BACK BELOW THE 017 MARK FOR A BIT THIS MORNING. RUC DOES NOT
TAKE THE 925 MB RIDGE AXIS EAST OF MSP UNTIL 21Z...SO PUSHED
STRATUS MENTION CLEAR OUT TO 20Z. BASED ON WRF REFLECTIVITY
FORECASTS...BEST WINDOW FOR -SN LOOKS TO BE IN THE 8Z TO 12Z
TIMEFRAME. FOR THE END OF THE TAF...NAM WOULD SAY LOW STRATUS WILL
FINISH OFF THE TAF THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...WHILE THE GFS
QUICKLY SCATTERS THINGS OUT BEHIND THE SNOW...WENT THE GFS
DIRECTION FOR NOW.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
RAH/MPG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
930 AM EST TUE JAN 24 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA TODAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT TONIGHT AND SETTLE OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY. A
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY...BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE
CAROLINAS THURSDAY NIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM TUESDAY...
...DENSE FOG ADVISORY EXTENDED UNTIL NOON...
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT STILL LIES OVER THE FOOTHILLS THIS
MORNING...WITH A SLENDER RESIDUAL WEDGE AIRMASS LOCKED IN ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT. DEEP LAYER FLOW ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SHORTWAVE
CROSSING THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION IS ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO THE
FRONTAL ZONE...AND THE WEAK POSTFRONTAL SURFACE HIGH IS STILL OVER
THE MID MS VALLEY REGION. BASED ON THIS...THERE IS VERY LITTLE
FORCING TO PUSH THE FRONT EAST TODAY...AND THE FOG/STRATUS THIS
MORNING IS HAVING TO BURN OFF FROM THE TOP DOWN. GIVEN THAT THE
WEDGE AIRMASS HAS BEEN RELATIVELY IN PLACE FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS NOW
AND LOW LEVEL SATURATION IS STILL ABOUT 1500 FT DEEP BASED ON THE
12Z RAOB FROM KGSO...THE FOG/STRATUS WILL BE SLOPE TO
ERODE...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE TRIAD AREA. VISIBILITIES OF ONE
QUARTER TO ONE HALF MILE ARE COMMON THIS MORNING...EVEN AT 930AM.
THEREFORE...THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL
NOON..THOUGH THERE WERE LIKELY BE SOME IMPROVEMENT ACROSS SOUTHERN
COUNTIES BY 11AM.
HIGHS WILL ALSO NEED TO BE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD IN AREAS WHERE FOG AND
STRATUS LINGER. THE 12Z HRRR APPEARS TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THE
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND ADJUST TEMPS WITH THE HRRR YIELDS
HIGHS IN THE MID 50S IN THE TRIAD TO MID 60S IN THE SOUTHEAST CWA.
TONIGHT:
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE OH VALLEY THIS
AFT/EVE IN ASSOCIATION WITH SYNOPTIC HEIGHT RISES/SUBSIDENCE IN THE
WAKE OF THE UPPER LOW TRACKING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES...BUILDING INTO CENTRAL NC FROM THE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH LINGERING LOW-LEVEL CLOUD COVER MAY STILL BE
PRESENT IN SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA AT SUNSET...CLEAR SKIES
ARE EXPECTED EVEN IN THE SOUTHEAST BY MIDNIGHT (AT LATEST) AS A
DRIER AIRMASS ADVECTS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. LOW TEMPS
WILL BE A FUNCTION OF BOTH RADIATIONAL COOLING AND COLD
ADVECTION...WITH 1000-850 MB THICKNESSES FALLING TO 1330-1340 METERS
FROM NW-SE BY 12Z WED MORNING. EXPECT LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE
LOWER/MID 30S IN THE N/NW PIEDMONT TO THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S IN THE
SOUTHEAST COASTAL PLAIN. -VINCENT
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 255 AM TUESDAY...
FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO GENERALLY
AGREE IN DEPICTING THE DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ~1030 MB TO EXTEND
OVER OUR REGION FROM THE NW ON WEDNESDAY... THEN SLOWLY SHIFT OFF TO
THE EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THURSDAY WILL BRING THE
APPROACH OF THE MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE GULF COAST STATES.
THIS LEADS TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A DRY DAY WEDNESDAY WITH A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE SW DURING THE DAY. HIGHS SHOULD
REACH THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. THE SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY
CLOUDY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE BECOMES MORE
EVIDENT ESPECIALLY IN THE MID LEVELS. LOWS WILL BE MILDER WITH
READINGS MOSTLY BETWEEN 40-45.
THURSDAY...THE COMBINATION OF THE APPROACHING MID-UPPER LEVEL STORM
ALONG WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM THE HIGH RETREATING
OFFSHORE WILL ALLOW FOR A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW OF DEEP
MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO CENTRAL NC BY LATE THURSDAY. MODELS ARE IN
GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT IN THAT THE RAIN WILL ARRIVE IN THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST PIEDMONT BY LATE AFTERNOON... WITH JUST A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN RAIN AREA MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM
FAYETTEVILLE TO RALEIGH DURING THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
TO HOLD OFF IN THE EAST UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGHS SHOULD EASILY
BUMP UP INTO THE 60S WITH 70 POSSIBLE FROM FAYETTEVILLE TO GOLDSBORO
IF WE GET A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 255 AM TUESDAY...
THE MODELS ARE TRENDING ON DAMPENING OUT/WEAKENING THE MID-UPPER
TROUGH...AND SPEEDING UP THE SYSTEM MOVEMENT THROUGH OUR REGION LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS HAS LED TO MODELS CUTTING BACK ON
THE QPF BY ABOUT HALF FROM THE TOTALS FORECAST BY THE OPERATIONAL EC
AND GFS 24 HOURS AGO. IN ADDITION...THE MAIN SURFACE LOW TRACK IS
NOW FORECAST TO BE UP ALONG THE MOUNTAINS...WITH A TRAILING COLD
FRONT TO PUSH EAST ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA FRIDAY.
24 HOURS AGO... THE MODELS INDICATED THE FORMATION OF ANOTHER WAVE
ON THE FRONT OVER CENTRAL NC. THEY HAVE SINCE BACKED OFF ON THIS
SCENARIO AS THE MID-UPPER WAVE IS NOW WEAKENING AND SPEEDING UP AS
IT MOVES OVER OUR REGION. REGARDLESS...A 6-12 HOUR PERIOD OF DEEP
MOISTURE INFLUX FROM THE GULF AND SUFFICIENT HEIGHT FALLS AND LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING A SIGNIFICANT
RAIN ON THE ORDER OF 0.5 TO POSSIBLY 1 INCH FOR THE EVENT.
SEVERE THREAT LOOKS MINIMAL WITH LITTLE TO NO CAPE AND MODERATE
SHEAR IN THE BAND OF SHOWERS. P-TYPE...ALL RAIN.
BEHIND THE SYSTEM...IT WILL BE MILD AND DRIER FRI NIGHT INTO SAT
NIGHT AWAITING A SHOT OF COLD AIR FOR SUNDAY. THIS SHOT OF COLD AIR
WILL BE BRIEF AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THIS ENTIRE LA NINA DRIVEN WINTER
SEASON FOR CENTRAL NC. STRONG CAA WILL LEAD TO THE CHILLIEST WEATHER
SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST AS THE HIGH
BUILDS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. WAA WILL BEGIN BY LATE MONDAY HERALDING
ANOTHER QUICK WARM-UP.
SENSIBLE WEATHER INCLUDES...
SHOWERS WEST AND DEVELOPING EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT. SHOWERS FRIDAY MORNING... ENDING FROM THE WEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. VERY MILD WITH LOWS IN THE 50S. HIGHS IN THE 60S FRIDAY.
MOSTLY CLEAR FRIDAY NIGHT AND COOLER. LOWS 30-35. MOSTLY SUNNY
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS 55-60. SUNDAY...PARTLY SUNNY BREEZY AND TURNING
COLDER. LOWS IN THE 30S. HIGHS IN THE 50S. CLEAR AND COLD SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. LOWS IN THE 20S. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 45-50 RANGE.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 650 AM TUESDAY...
24-HR TAF PERIOD:
DIFFICULT FORECAST WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY THROUGH THE
FIRST 6-12 HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD. AS OF 12Z...LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS
WERE REPORTED AT MOST OF THE CENTRAL NC TAF SITES AND THE WEDGE
FRONT WAS LOCATED 25-50 MILES SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE FAY TERMINAL. A
COLD FRONT LOCATED IN WESTERN NC/SC AT 12Z THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY
PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL NC TODAY. A DRIER AIRMASS ADVECTING
INTO THE CAROLINAS BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG WITH DIURNAL HEATING/
MIXING SHOULD HELP TO ERODE THE CAD WEDGE AND ALLOW CONDITIONS TO
IMPROVE FROM LIFR/IFR TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY VFR FROM NW-SE TODAY.
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE FIRST AT INT/GSO...FOLLOWED BY RDU/RWI
AND FINALLY THE FAY TERMINAL. THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY SEPARATED FROM THE PARENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TODAY...AND AS A RESULT...THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE THROUGH
CENTRAL NC AND CONDITIONS MAY BE SLOW TO IMPROVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THE FAY TAF SITE. THE 12Z TAFS IMPROVE
CONDITIONS TO VFR AT INT/GSO BY 16Z...RDU/RWI BY 17Z...AND FAY BY
21Z. REGARDLESS...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS BY 21-00Z THIS EVENING
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A
POTENTIAL FOR SUB-VFR FOG AT THE FAY TERMINAL BETWEEN SUNSET AND
~04Z TONIGHT BEFORE A DRIER AIRMASS ARRIVES FROM THE NORTHWEST.
LOOKING AHEAD:
VFR CONDITIONS ASSOC/W HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO/OVER THE AREA ARE
EXPECTED TO RULE THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK EAST INTO THE
LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
APPROACHING THE CAROLINAS FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE THURSDAY OR THURSDAY EVENING AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT...WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN AND IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS LIKELY
THU NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. -VINCENT
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TUESDAY FOR
NCZ007>010-021>026-038>041-073>077-083>086.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT/SMITH
SHORT TERM...BADGETT
LONG TERM...BADGETT
AVIATION...VINCENT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
954 AM EST TUE JAN 24 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY...PROVIDING A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER. LOW PRESSURE
TRAVELING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING PRECIPITATION LATE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE
BACK IN ON FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK S/W ROTATING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AROUND CLOSED H5 LOW IS
ENHANCING WRAP AROUND CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION. LATEST SATELLITE
LOOP IS SHOWING GOOD EXPANSE OF CLOUDS BACK TO THE W AND LATEST
RUNS OF THE NAM12 AND RUC13 ARE SHOWING THAT THE H9 MOISTURE WILL
LINGER INTO THE EVENING.
SO INCREASED THE CLOUD COVER FOR THIS AFTERNOON. WENT CLOUDY IN
THE N AND BECOMING CLOUDY IN THE S AND SE.
CURRENT TEMPERATURE FORECAST STILL LOOKED OK...SO NO CHANGES
THERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...PROVIDING
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LOWS IN THE 20S. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL
MOVE IN ON WEDNESDAY WELL AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE...WHICH WILL
CURTAIL SUNSHINE BY AFTERNOON. THE INCREASING CLOUDS AFTER A COOL
START WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN ON
TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY ALONG
AN AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHWEST.
THE PRECIPITATION WILL EXTEND UP THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH SOUTHERN
COUNTIES RECEIVING THE MOST. TEMPERATURE PROFILES INDICATE THAT
SNOW WILL MIX IN NORTH OF CINCINNATI AND PORTSMOUTH...BUT THE BULK
OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN NEAR THE OHIO
RIVER. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO 40 OR HIGHER ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WHICH WILL CHANCE ALL LINGERING PRECIPITATION TO RAIN.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY. MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH THIS
BOUNDARY SO CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IS LOW. LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT A SECONDARY TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH ON SUNDAY. BUT
TIMING FEATURES IN FAST NORTHWEST FLOW THAT FAR OUT IN TIME IS
PROBLEMATIC. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO START BUILDING IN ON
MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL EXCEPT OVER THE WEEKEND
WHEN THEY WILL COOL DOWN CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DEEP LOW PRESSURE N OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK N
INTO CANADA TODAY. EXTENSIVE FIELD OF CLOUDS EXISTS AROUND THIS
LOW IN THE LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW ACRS THE GREAT LAKES/OH VLY.
THIS MVFR SC DECK WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
THROUGH THE DAY BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE REGION TONIGHT.
LATEST SATL IMGRY SHOWS TEMPORARY CLEAR WEDGE OVER I-71 CORRIDOR BUT
MORE CLOUDS UPSTREAM BACK ACRS SRN INDIANA. CONTINUE TO SLOW THE
CLEARING PROGRESS BASED ON TRENDS WITH KCVG/KLUK SCATTERING OUT
AROUND 15Z...BUT KEPT CLOUDS IN KDAY THRU MIDDAY AND AT KCMH/KLCK
UNTIL MID AFTN. EXPECT GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AND LIGHT WINDS
WITH THE SFC HIGH BUILDING IN.
OUTLOOK...IFR CONDITIONS MAY ACCOMPANY SNOW AND RAIN ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...AR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
636 AM EST TUE JAN 24 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...PROVIDING A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER. LOW PRESSURE
TRAVELING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING PRECIPITATION LATE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE
BACK IN ON FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE WEST WILL MOVE INTO THE ILN AREA
TODAY. CLOUDS WILL PERSIST OVER NORTHERN COUNTIES INTO THIS
AFTERNOON UNTIL MOISTURE MOVES EAST AS PER LATEST RUC 1000-850MB
RELATIVE HUMIDITY. NUDGED TEMPERATURES UP SLIGHTLY TOWARD MAV
GUIDANCE...WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S
NORTHWEST TO THE MID 40S SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...PROVIDING
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LOWS IN THE 20S. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL
MOVE IN ON WEDNESDAY WELL AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE...WHICH WILL
CURTAIL SUNSHINE BY AFTERNOON. THE INCREASING CLOUDS AFTER A COOL
START WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN ON
TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY ALONG
AN AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHWEST.
THE PRECIPITATION WILL EXTEND UP THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH SOUTHERN
COUNTIES RECEIVING THE MOST. TEMPERATURE PROFILES INDICATE THAT
SNOW WILL MIX IN NORTH OF CINCINNATI AND PORTSMOUTH...BUT THE BULK
OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN NEAR THE OHIO
RIVER. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO 40 OR HIGHER ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WHICH WILL CHANCE ALL LINGERING PRECIPITATION TO RAIN.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY. MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH THIS
BOUNDARY SO CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IS LOW. LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT A SECONDARY TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH ON SUNDAY. BUT
TIMING FEATURES IN FAST NORTHWEST FLOW THAT FAR OUT IN TIME IS
PROBLEMATIC. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO START BUILDING IN ON
MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL EXCEPT OVER THE WEEKEND
WHEN THEY WILL COOL DOWN CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DEEP LOW PRESSURE N OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK N
INTO CANADA TODAY. EXTENSIVE FIELD OF CLOUDS EXISTS AROUND THIS
LOW IN THE LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW ACRS THE GREAT LAKES/OH VLY.
THIS MVFR SC DECK WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
THROUGH THE DAY BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE REGION TONIGHT.
LATEST SATL IMGRY SHOWS TEMPORARY CLEAR WEDGE OVER I-71 CORRIDOR BUT
MORE CLOUDS UPSTREAM BACK ACRS SRN INDIANA. CONTINUE TO SLOW THE
CLEARING PROGRESS BASED ON TRENDS WITH KCVG/KLUK SCATTERING OUT
AROUND 15Z...BUT KEPT CLOUDS IN KDAY THRU MIDDAY AND AT KCMH/KLCK
UNTIL MID AFTN. EXPECT GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AND LIGHT WINDS
WITH THE SFC HIGH BUILDING IN.
OUTLOOK...IFR CONDITIONS MAY ACCOMPANY SNOW AND RAIN ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...AR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NWS RAPID CITY SD
527 AM MST TUE JAN 24 2012
.UPDATE...NARROW BAND OF MODERATE FRONTOGENESIS FROM 850-600MB
FRONTOGENESIS IS MAKING MAXIMUM USAGE OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE THIS
MORNING FROM THE BLACK HILLS ONTO PORTIONS OF THE SD PLAINS. WILL
UPDATE FORECAST FOR HIGHER POPS AND SPREAD HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS
ONTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS OF THE BLACK HILLS.
&&
.AVIATION...12Z TAF UPDATE
MVFR CONDITIONS...WITH AREAS OF IFR...WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING AS SNOW CONTINUES TO SPREAD EAST.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE ACROSS FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY
WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING AREA WIDE BY 00Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 223 AM MST TUE JAN 24 2012/
DISCUSSION...09Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW OVER NORTH CENTRAL CO
WITH TROUGH INTO WESTERN ND. WATER VAPOUR HAD UPPER TROUGH
STRETCHING FROM SOUTHERN SK INTO AZ. MAIN SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN AZ
AND MOVING ACROSS MT INTO ND. MAINLY A SHEAR AXIS TO MOVE THROUGH
THE CWA TODAY...BUT LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW RETURNS INCREASING
ACROSS THE CWA. 06Z RUC PICKS UP ON THIS TREND WITH MODEST BAND OF
FRONTOGENESIS ALONG TROUGH...WHICH WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY. 00Z KUNR SOUNDING AND MODIFIED 09Z FORECAST SOUNDING
STILL SHOWS LOWEST 2KM OF TROPOSPHERE FAIRLY DRY. SOME LIFT WILL
BE WASTED. WILL BE MAKING LAST MINUTE ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS BASED ON
LATEST TRENDS. A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED
BEHIND TROUGH IN THE SQUEEZE ZONE JUST NORTH THROUGH EAST OF THE
BLACK HILLS. TEMPERATURES NEAR GUIDANCE.
TONIGHT...WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE ALOFT PASSES THROUGH WITH HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTING SOUTH. RETURN FLOW STARTS IN EARNEST OVERNIGHT
AS SHORTWAVE ZIPS ACROSS THE MT/SK BORDER. TYPICAL AREAS IN
NORTHEASTERN WY/BLACK HILLS WILL SEE BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AS
WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISALLOBARIC FORCING COMMENCES.
WEDNESDAY...WARM FRONT QUICKLY MOVES EAST OF THE CWA WITH COLD
FRONT DROPPING INTO THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON AS SURFACE LOW
MOVES FROM SK INTO MB. DOWNSLOPE FLOW AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WILL
PROMOTE TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5-10F ABOVE NORMAL. WINDY SPOTS WILL
DEVELOP ON THE SD PLAINS. TEMPERATURES NEAR GUIDANCE.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY...UPPER FLOW BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY WITH A
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVING FROM AB INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.
BEST LIFT WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA WITH
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE MOST NOTABLE. TEMPERATURES NEAR GUIDANCE.
EXTENDED...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH A CANADIAN LOW
WILL PRODUCE BREEZY WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES...THOUGH STILL SEASONABLY
AVERAGE...ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. WARMER AIR WILL ADVECT IN
FROM THE WEST SUNDAY WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT
WEEK. SOME AREAS MAY SEE SOME RAIN OR SNOW SUNDAY AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE AREA.
AVIATION...12Z TAFS
CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DETERIORATE TO
MVFR...WITH AREAS OF IFR...AS -SN DEVELOPS OVER NORTHEAST WYOMING
AND FAR WESTERN/SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
ACROSS FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS
RETURNING AREA WIDE BY 00Z.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM....CALDERON
AVIATION...CALDERON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
445 AM CST TUE JAN 24 2012
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY
303 AM CST TUE JAN 24 2012
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE CLOUD TRENDS TODAY...THEN LIGHT SNOW CHANCE
LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS A CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL ONTARIO. MASSIVE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS LOW WAS PRODUCING
A BROAD FIELD OF STRATUS ACROSS THE REGION. UNDER THIS BLANKET OF
CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES AT 2 AM WERE SITTING IN THE 20-25 DEGREE
RANGE. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE 15-20
DEGREE RANGE BY DAYBREAK IN COLD AIR ADVECTION.
24.00Z MODELS ALL IN PRETTY DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM.
BUFKIT AND MODELED 0.5-1.0KM RH FIELDS SHOW STRATUS
THINNING/CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. OTHERWISE...925MB TEMPERATURES IN THE -3 TO -6C
RANGE TODAY SHOULD TRANSLATE TO HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S.
FOR TONIGHT...A MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OUT OF THE HIGH
PLAINS INTO MN/IA BY 12Z. MODELS SHOWING DECENT 700-300MB
PV-ADVECTION AND QG CONVERGENCE AFTER 06Z MOVING INTO THE AREA.
HOWEVER...BUFKIT SOUNDINGS REVEAL A FAIRLY DRY LOW LEVEL IN THE
LOWEST 4KFT. BALANCING THE FORCING WITH DRY LOWER LEVELS...WILL GO
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE -SN BASICALLY NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM MEDFORD WI
THROUGH WINONA MN TO NEW HAMPTON IA. CONTINUED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
-SN NORTH OF I-94 WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN CLEARING EXPECTED THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON FROM NORTHWEST IN SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE DEPARTING
TROUGH.
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
BE MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA WITH OUR AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR.
WARM FRONTAL MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP
LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE 20S. CLEARING SKIES IN THE WARM SECTOR
INTO THURSDAY AND 925MB TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 0 TO +3C
RANGES SHOULD BOOST HIGHS AT THE SURFACE WELL INTO THE 30S. A COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ROLL INTO THE AREA LATER THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD MAKE PASSAGE PAST PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
303 AM CST TUE JAN 24 2012
24.00Z GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT FOR A CHANCE OF -SN. LOOKS LIKE
A COOL DOWN THEN GOING INTO THE WEEKEND AS A LARGE TROUGH CARVES OUT
OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER/GREAT LAKES REGION. APPEARS THERE
MAY BE A SMALL CHANCE OF -SN ACROSS THE NORTH SATURDAY AS A
SECONDARY MID-LEVEL TROUGH ROTATES THROUGH THAT AREA. ANOTHER SMALL
CHANCE OF -SN FOR THE AREA COMES ALONG ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
ANOTHER WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH ROTATES THROUGH IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. TEMPERATURE-WISE...HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO START OFF IN THE
LOWER-MIDDLE 30S ON FRIDAY...COOLING INTO THE TEENS BY SUNDAY. SOME
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES SHOULD OCCUR MONDAY IN WARM AIR ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THAT INCOMING TROUGH.
&&
.AVIATION...
445 AM CST MON JAN 23 2012
AVIATION FOCUS IS ON HOW QUICKLY THE MOSTLY MVFR 1-2 KFT CEILINGS
WILL ERODE/EXIT THE AREA. LATEST FOG/STRATUS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
A HOLE DEVELOPING IN THE CLOUD SHIELD...WHICH WILL LIKELY BRING A
PERIOD OF SCT SKIES TO KRST EARLY THIS MORNING...AND POSSIBLY
KLSE...BEFORE THE MAIN CLEARING OCCURS. THIS CLEARING MAY GRADUALLY
EXPAND TO FORM THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE LOW CLOUDS...WHICH
RUC13/NAM12 TRENDS WOULD PUSH EAST OF KLSE AROUND 17-18Z.
HOWEVER...THE RUC13 WOULD HOLD A BAND OF MVFR CLOUDS TO THE
WEST...ACROSS SOUTHWEST MN/IA. HOWEVER...IT FAVORS KEEPING THEM WEST
OF KRST...AND THESE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY ERODE AWAY AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. WILL TRY TO TIME THIS HOLE ACROSS KRST...AND THEN WORK
THE WESTERN EDGE VIA THE RUC13/NAM12 SUGGESTIONS. EXPECT SCT
CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.
TONIGHT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST...BRINGING A LOWERING CLOUD DECK TO THE REGION. SOME -SN
COULD BE POSSIBLE AT KRST...BUT IF IT OCCURS...DON/T EXPECT ANY
ACCUMULATION AT THE MOMENT. A RETURN TO MVFR CEILINGS IS ALSO A
POSSIBILITY...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAFS
YET...BUT WILL TREND CIGS DOWN.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
303 AM CST TUE JAN 24 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION.....RIECK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
1039 AM MST TUE JAN 24 2012
.UPDATE...RADAR SHOWING LIGHT SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE
PLAINS...WITH SOME DRYING ACROSS THE CHEYENNE RIDGE. IT APPEARS
THAT THERE IS A DECREASING TREND IN THE SNOW ACROSS LARIMER AND
WELD COUNTIES. SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AS
WELL...MAINLY ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. OVERALL...CURRENT
FORECAST LOOKS IN ORDER...WITH LOWERING POPS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. STILL NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION.
1-3 INCHES SEEMS OKAY FOR MOUNTAINS WITH LESS THAN AN INCH FOR
THE PLAINS. CLEARING SKIES STILL ON TRACK FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
WINDS LOOK MINIMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...HEAVIEST SNOW BAND MOVING ACROSS DIA AND APA...WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING. CHANCE FOR IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 19Z
AT KBJC AND KDEN...LASTING A BIT LONGER AT KAPA. LATEST MODELS
STILL SHOWING VFR CONDITIONS BY 21Z...LATEST TAFS WILL SHOW THIS
TREND...THOUGH CEILINGS OF AROUND 5000-6000 FEET TO PREVAIL INTO
THE EVENING.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 AM MST TUE JAN 24 2012/
SHORT TERM...ELONGATED UPPER AIR TROUGH JUST TO OUR WEST MAKES
SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. JET LEVEL
ENERGY AND QG DIVERGENCE SWINGING ACROSS WESTERN WYOMING ATTM AS
INDICATED BY THE BANDED CLOUD SHIELD AND PCPN FIELD IN THE AREA.
THIS FEATURE SHOULD PROVIDE THE LIFT NECESSARY FOR SHOWER
PRODUCTION LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON DOWN HERE. ALSO
WAITING FOR THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT JUST ABOUT READY TO DROP
SOUTH OF THE COLORADO/WYOMING LINE. LAPS AND RUC INDICATING 2-5 MB
3-HR PRESSURE RISES IN THE COLDER AIR ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL
WYOMING. NAM SHOWS THIS RISE COUPLET SHIFTING TO SERN WY BY MID-
MORNING AND DOWN ACROSS NERN CO ON GUSTY NLY SFC WINDS BY MIDDAY.
MODELS DIFFER ON THE AMOUNT OF SHOWER COVERAGE/QPF/SNOW AMOUNTS
WITH THIS SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED SYSTEM. MODELS GENERALLY AGREE
THAT THE BULK OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TODAY IN NERN COLORADO WILL
PROBABLY NOT OCCUR UNTIL AFTER THE 10-20KT N-NELY POST FRONTAL
WINDS KICK IN MID TO LATE MORNING. FURTHERMORE MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW A BAND OF 1-2 INCH SNOW AMOUNTS ACROSS ERN DOUGLAS...WRN
ELBERT...AND CNTRL ADAMS AND ARAPAHOE COUNTIES BY 21Z TODAY. EVEN
THOUGH BNDRY LAYER MOISTURE DOESN/T LOOK ALL THAT GREAT BASED ON
MODEL SOUNDINGS...THE LIFT GENERATED BY THE PASSING TROUGH AND
UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD BE ADEQUATE TO GENERATE AMOUNTS SOMEWHERE
WITHIN THIS RANGE DOWN THERE. IN THE DENVER METRO AREA AND POINTS
NORTH...ANY SNOW AMOUNTS TODAY SHOULD BE MINIMAL...WHILE THE EAST
FACE OF THE FRONT RANGE COULD PICK UP AN INCH OR TWO WITH LATE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON CONVECTION. IN THE HIGH COUNTRY...SET
UP DOES NOT LOOK ALL THAT FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL. SWLY
700-500MB FLOW QUICKLY TURNS N-NWLY WITH PASSAGE OF THE MID-LEVEL
TROUGH LATE THIS MORNING...WHICH IS NOT ALL THAT GREAT FOR
OROGRAPHIC SNOWFALL. SPEEDS ALSO NOT THAT STRONG WITH THIS SYSTEM.
700-500MB TROUGH AXIS AND BEST QG ASCENT PROGGED TO PASS OVER THE
NORTHEAST PLAINS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND OUT OF THE STATE BY
EVENING..FOLLOWING BY STRONG DRYING WHICH SHOULD QUICKLY CLEAR
SKIES FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. CLEARING OVERNIGHT WILL ALLOW
FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN THE COLDEST
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES OF THE WEEK.
LONG TERM...FOR WEDNESDAY...A DRY DAY WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES BEHIND TUESDAY`S DISTURBANCE AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ALOFT INTO COLORADO. THE FLOW ALOFT THEN BECOMES A FAST AND
ZONAL NORTHWEST FLOW FOR THURSDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THERE IS A FAST MOVING WAVE WHICH TRAVERSES THE STATE ON
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. COLDER TEMPERATURES AND LOOKS LIKE A
FAIRLY HEALTHY COLD FRONT WHICH PUSHES SOUTH EARLY IN THE DAY.
BOTH GFS/NAM INDICATE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW BUT IT
IS A FAST MOVING FEATURE SO SOMETIMES MOISTURE AND WINDS MAY BE
SUSPECT. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE ONGOING FORECAST WITH A GOOD BET
OF COLDER TEMPERATURES AND CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
PLAINS. DRIER AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND WITH CONTINUED DRY...NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT.
AVIATION...
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...D-L
LONG TERM....ENTREKIN
AVIATION...D-L
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TALLAHASSEE FL
345 PM EST Mon Jan 23 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
20Z water vapor and H4 RUC analysis shows a split flow pattern into
the western CONUS. Northern stream flow arrives over the Pacific
NW/British Columbia coasts, with one surge of energy pushing toward
the northern Plains, and another more potent trough/shortwave
crossing over the four-corners region. It will be this energy that
will evolve eastward through the mid-week period and bring our next
potential for significant weather toward Thursday night and Friday.
For now, mid/upper level flow has become zonal in nature along the
northern gulf coast. 12Z KTLH sounding shows a generally moist
profile through the trop with nearly saturated conditions below
800mb. A measured PW value of almost 1.5" is well above normal for
late January (approx 185% of climo).
At the surface, weak remnant cold front is essentially stalled
across the CWA, with a an afternoon position from near KVLD to KTLH
and then extending off the Panhandle coast to the MS delta, where
the front is beginning to retreat northward as a warm front.
Regional radars show the expected development of sct showers/storms
along the stalled frontal boundary has commenced. Convective
development off the FL panhandle coast resulted in an area of cirrus
which expanded over the FL Big Bend zones earlier in the afternoon.
This cirrus shield slowed the diurnal heating process and has likely
cut back on the overall coverage of convection between Panama City,
Tallahassee, and Valdosta. Even still a few additional convective
elements are likely to fire along this boundary into the early
evening.
&&
.NEAR TERM (tonight)...
Any convective enhancement that was seen during the later afternoon
hours should dissipate rapidly this evening with the loss of diurnal
heating and low level focus. Remnant front will essential wash out
the remainder of the night allowing a more uniform easterly low
level flow to develop across the region. Depending on just how
quickly the gradient tightens...there will be the potential for
areas of fog to develop after midnight...primarily from the Big Bend
zones up into our southern tier of Georgia zones. Plenty of low
level moisture will keep our string of warm nights going. Low temps
by sunrise Wednesday will only fall into the lower to middle 50s
inland and upper 50s to near 60 along the immediate coast.
&&
.SHORT TERM (Wednesday through Thursday night)...
Short lived deep layer ridging will build over the extreme
southeastern part of the country on Wednesday, providing us with hot
and somewhat dry conditions. Temperatures will climb into the upper
70s for most inland locations. Along the coast, lower to middle 70s
are likely. There is the slight chance for a brief shower along the
eastern Apalachee Bay coastline late in the afternoon as the
easterly flow on the southern edge of the surface ridge collides
with a very weak sea-breeze circulation.
Wednesday night, temperatures will be moderated by light
southeasterly flow. Lows are expected to fall into the middle and
upper 50s region-wide. No chance for rain.
Thursday and beyond gets a bit tricky as guidance is having a hard
time lining up with respect to the strength and timing of our next
system. All indications so far favor the slightly faster solutions,
bringing showers and thunderstorms into our extreme western Florida
and Alabama counties late Thursday afternoon. Expect the majority of
the thunderstorm activity to arrive Thursday night and exit our far
eastern Florida and Georgia counties sometime on Friday.
The storm prediction center has outlooked portions of our forecast
area in a "slight risk" for severe weather with the approaching
weather system. Very strong winds aloft would favor the development
of severe storms, beginning late Thursday night, into the first part
of Friday. Some uncertainty exists due to the spread of solutions
offered by guidance, as well as well agreed upon limited
instability. Although the amount of instability forecast is low, the
dynamics are impressive, and this is certainly a threat that will
need to be monitored over the next couple of days. Confidence will
improve as the system evolves and guidance comes into better
agreement on the timing and strength.
&&
.LONG TERM (Friday night through next Tuesday)...
In the wake of the passing system, high pressure will build in and
offer a period of rather dry conditions. Also, temperatures will
return to more seasonable levels, in the upper 60s during the day,
and the 30s overnight.
&&
.MARINE...
Winds and seas will remain below headline criteria through tomorrow
night. On Thursday, an approaching surface low could increase winds
and seas to cautionary levels. Thursday night, a strong cold front
passing across the region will increase winds to advisory levels.
Winds and seas will subside below headline criteria by Friday
evening as high pressure quickly builds in over our coastal and
offshore waters.
&&
.AVIATION...
A weak cold front is laid out across the region from ECP to about
midway between ABY and VLD. Behind the front at DHN and ABY, expect
VFR conditions through 18 UTC Wed, with the possibility of MVFR
conditions in the early morning at DHN. The forecast this afternoon
was a little trickier ahead of and along the front, with low level
mixing ahead of the front eroding cloud bases and scattered showers
along the front. Overnight, fog/lower cigs are expected to develop
along and south of the I-10 corridor. These restrictions will likely
lower to IFR for time after midnight through mid morning Wednesday.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Increasing onshore flow will keep relative humidity values above
critical level through the end of the work week. The next front
should come on Friday wit showers and thunderstorms. A cooler, drier
airmass will arrive behind the front over the weekend.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 55 76 56 75 57 / 20 0 0 20 70
Panama City 59 73 60 73 58 / 30 0 0 50 70
Dothan 53 76 58 76 55 / 10 0 0 40 70
Albany 52 77 56 76 56 / 10 0 0 10 70
Valdosta 54 77 55 76 58 / 20 0 0 10 70
Cross City 54 78 53 77 60 / 10 20 10 10 60
Apalachicola 58 68 58 69 59 / 20 0 0 30 70
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
GA...None.
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
Near Term/Aviation/Fire Wx...Mroczka/Moore
Short Term/Long Term/Marine...Harrigan
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TALLAHASSEE FL
1120 AM EST Tue Jan 24 2012
.UPDATE...
15Z water vapor and H4 RUC analysis shows a developing split flow
pattern into the western CONUS. Northern stream flow arrives over
the Pacific NW/British Columbia coasts, with one surge of energy
pushing toward the northern Plains, and another more potent
trough/shortwave crossing over the four-corners region. It will be
this energy that will evolve eastward through the mid-week period
and bring our next significant weather toward Thursday night and
Friday. For now, mid/upper level flow has become zonal in nature
along the northern gulf coast. 12Z KTLH sounding shows a generally
moist profile through the trop with nearly saturated conditions
below 800mb. A measured PW value of almost 1.5" is well above normal
for late January (approx 185% of climo).
At the surface, weak remnant cold front is essentially stalled
across the CWA, with a late morning position from near KVLD to KTLH
and then extending off the Panhandle coast to the MS delta.
Most of the earlier shower activity across the Big Bend/SW GA
associated with the surface front has dissipated. At the same time,
seeing a re-development of convection over the coastal waters to the
south of the FL Panhandle. The front is beginning to creep back
north as a warm front over this area, and resulting low level
upglide is the forcing mechanism for this activity. For the most
part, expecting the bulk of this offshore activity to remain just
offshore or eventually build toward the western Panhandle, however
current PoPs allow for at least sct development northward toward
Panama City/Destin during the afternoon hours. Will continue to
monitor the situation in case additional updates are needed before
the afternoon package issuance.
The other forecast concern will be dealing with any potential
re-development of afternoon convection along the front back into the
western Big Bend zones, and SW/SC GA. As breaks in the clouds
continue to develop, will see our temps over land area adjacent to
Apalachee Bay warm up well into the 70s. With water temps in the
upper 50s to lower 60s over the Bay, these temps along with a weak
gradient will likely force a feeble sea-breeze circulation by
mid-afternoon. Is this January? Many of the hi-res guidance members
are indeed showing this sea-breeze enhancement. They also show
convective re-development as the sea-breeze enhances low level focus
along the synoptic front. Have highlighted an elevated (40%) PoP
field in the grids from Bay/Gulf counties toward Tallahassee and
Valdosta to account for this potential. Any convective enhancement
that is seen should dissipate rapidly this evening with the loss of
diurnal heating and low level focus.
&&
.MARINE...Winds and seas will remain below headline criteria through
mid week. There should be a gradual increase in SE winds on Wed as a
low develops along the Texas Gulf coast. On Thursday, this
strengthening low pressure and trailing front will approach from the
west and increase winds and seas to advisory levels. As the low
lifts northeast and front departs further from area, winds and seas
will subside to below headline criteria by Friday evening. Another
increase to headline criteria is possible over the weekend as
surface high pressure approaches our Gulf waters.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 75 55 75 56 74 / 40 20 10 10 30
Panama City 71 60 73 60 67 / 40 30 20 10 50
Dothan 71 54 76 58 73 / 20 30 10 20 60
Albany 71 51 76 56 75 / 10 10 10 10 30
Valdosta 74 54 77 55 76 / 30 10 10 0 30
Cross City 78 54 77 54 76 / 10 10 10 0 20
Apalachicola 70 59 69 58 68 / 30 10 10 10 40
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
GA...None.
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
MROCZKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
310 PM CST MON JAN 24 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS AN OCCLUDED EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE OVER JAMES BAY
WITH AN 850MB COLD FRONT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND BACK INTO NORTHERN
MISSOURI. A RESPECTABLE SHORTWAVE WAS MOVING EAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES WHILE ANOTHER STRONG STORM SYSTEM ORGANIZES OVER NEW MEXICO.
SATELLITE TRENDS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON SHOW CLEARING BEHIND A
DEPARTING SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WHILE MOISTURE
REMAINS TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION ACROSS IOWA. HIGH AND MID CLOUDS
WERE STREAMING EAST FROM THE PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEMS IN THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES.
18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS HIGH PRESSURE FROM MINNESOTA THROUGH CENTRAL
IOWA AND THEN INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A WEAK LOW WAS
NORTH OF KVTN WITH TROFS EXTENDING NORTH AND SOUTH OF IT. THE
SOUTHERN STREAM STORM SYSTEM WAS IN THE BIG BEND OF TEXAS. DEW
POINTS WERE IN THE TEENS AND 20S ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDWEST AND
PLAINS WITH 30S AND HIGH DEW POINTS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WEST INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...
BASED ON SATELLITE CLOUDS TRENDS...THOSE AREAS THAT ARE STILL CLOUDY
WILL LIKELY REMAIN SO THROUGH SUNSET. THE PROXIMITY OF THE SFC RIDGE
COMBINED WITH THE ARRIVAL OF HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP THOSE CLOUDS IN
PLACE THROUGH SUNSET.
UNFORTUNATELY...THE STRAIGHT FORWARD FCST OF DRY CONDITIONS FOR
TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY HAS BECOME MORE COMPLICATED.
STRONG WAA FROM THE SFC TO 850MB IS OCCURRING IN THE PLAINS FROM A
LLJ WHICH IS RESULTING IN CONVERGENCE ACROSS NORTHERN KS/SOUTHERN NE
WHICH IS AIDING IN CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. RUC TRENDS IN WHICH THE
WRF/GFS AGREE SHOWS 850-700MB AND EVENTUALLY 1000-850MB CONDENSATION
PRESSURE DEFICITS LOWERING LATER THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO STRONG
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING INDICATING PRECIPITATION. TRENDS FROM THE
RUC AND OTHER MODELS ARE TO MOVE THIS WING OF WAA PRECIPITATION INTO
IOWA THIS EVENING WITH A NORTHEAST MOVEMENT OVERNIGHT. THE HEAVY
RAIN AND LIFT TOOLS SHOW A SIMILAR SIGNAL. IF SUCH A SCENARIO WAS
OCCURRING ROUGHLY 5 MONTHS FROM NOW THESE SIGNALS WOULD POINT TO AN
MCS DEVELOPING IN THE PLAINS AND MOVING NORTHEAST.
THE WRF/GFS SHOW THE LOWEST 850-700MB CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS
JUST MISSING THE CWFA VERY LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE
1000-850MB CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS ARE HIGHER SUGGESTING
ENOUGH DRY AIR WOULD BE IN PLACE TO PREVENT ANY PRECIPITATION FROM
HAPPENING. HOWEVER...SINCE THE MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING THE CURRENT
LOW CLOUDS ONE MUST BE CAUTIOUS ON THIS ASSUMPTION. GIVEN THE TRENDS
OF THE 18Z WRF RUN...WILL GO WITH THE IDEA THAT THE CWFA WILL REMAIN
DRY TONIGHT. HOWEVER...I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF FLURRIES
DEVELOPED FROM HWY 20 ON NORTH AFTER 3 AM.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD QUICKLY DROP WITH SUNSET IN THE CLEAR AREAS THIS
EVENING. AS THE HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARRIVE THE DROP OFF SHOULD
LEVEL OFF AND MAY EVEN BEGIN A SLOW RISE THROUGH SUNRISE.
WEDNESDAY...FLURRIES MAY OR MAY NOT BE OCCURRING ALONG/NORTH OF HWY
20 DURING THE MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN
THROUGH THE MORNING WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD FROM THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH
THE CWFA. CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS AND THE OVERALL FORCING
SUGGESTS THE NORTHERN LIMIT OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE FROM JUST
SOUTH OF KUIN TO ABOUT KAAA IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS. THUS DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
..08..
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...FORECAST FOCUS
ON A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW BUT NO
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES TO
REMAIN A BIT ABOVE NORMAL BUT A SHOT OF COLDER AIR THIS WEEKEND.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...SPLIT FLOW INITIALLY KEEPS
SOUTHERN STORM SYSTEM SOUTH OF THE DVN CWA AT MID WEEK.
ECM/GFS/NAM/GEM/UKMET ALL KEEP THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA. PHASING TAKES PLACE CRANKING
UP A DECENT CYCLONE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO NEW
ENGLAND LATE THIS WEEK. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM NORTHWEST FLOW
TAKES OVER WITH A STRONG TROUGH DIVING INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED BUT ECM/NAM PAINTS THE
POTENTIAL FOR UP TO AN INCH OF SNOWFALL IN OUR SOUTHERN CWA. THE
GFS/GEM ARE MUCH DRIER. HOWEVER THE LOCATION OF THE AXIS OF THIS
SNOWFALL MAY CHANGE DEPENDING ON THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF A STRONG
VORT MAX EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS THE AREA. MAX TEMPERATURES DURING
THIS TIME FRAME SHOULD BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40.
THIS WEEKEND...FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THIS TROUGH COLDER AIR DUMPS
INTO THE MIDWEST. WILL BE BRISK ON SATURDAY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS
GUSTING TO 30 MPH PUTTING A BITE IN THE AIR. ANOTHER STRONG TROUGH
AND VORT MAX ARRIVES SATURDAY NIGHT BUT MOISTURE WILL BE EVEN MORE
LIMITED. HOWEVER SCATTERED FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE STRENGTH
OF THE SYSTEM BUT FOR NOW WILL NOT MENTION IN THE GRIDS WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE. MIN TEMPS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL DIP TO AROUND 10 ABOVE AT
INDEPENDENCE WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE TEENS. COLD ON SUNDAY WITH
MAX TEMPS ONLY IN THE 20S...BUT LOWER 30S IN OUR FAR SOUTH.
EARLY NEXT WEEK...ZONAL FLOW RETURNS WITH MILDER TEMPERATURES
REACHING INTO THE MID 30S NORTH TO MID 40S SOUTH. WAVE IN THE FLOW
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT MAY BRING A ROUND OF LIGHT RAIN TO THE
CWA...POSSIBLY CHANGING TO LIGHT SNOW AT THE TAIL END. THIS IS A
WEEK AWAY SO CONFIDENCE IN THE INTENSITY/TIMING AND QPF IS LOW.
..HAASE..
&&
.AVIATION...
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO PERSIST UNDER THE INVERSION AS SUBSIDENCE HAS
WEAKENED AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARRIVE. SATELLITE TRENDS CONTINUE TO
SHOW A GRADUAL DECAY OF THE 1-2KFT CLOUDS AND THESE CLOUDS ARE NOT
FAR FROM KCID. THUS IT APPEARS THAT VFR WX SHOULD NOW BE SEEN
THROUGH 06Z/25 AT ALL TAF SITES. AFT 06Z/25 THE CURRENT TAFS HAVE
VFR WX CONTINUING. HOWEVER...WITH WARM AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA
THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR MVFR VSBYS TO DEVELOP PRIOR TO SUNRISE.
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF VCSH AT KDBQ TOWARD 12Z/25 FOR FLURRIES
THAT MAY PERSIST PAST 12Z/25.
..08..
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
1200 PM EST TUE JAN 24 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PASS NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY WITH A
WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON. A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION FROM QUEBEC LATER
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...MOST OF THE FOG HAS FINALLY LIFTED AS DRIER AIR WORKS
INTO THE REGION BEHIND A WEAK FRONT THAT HAS JUST PASSED THROUGH.
STILL SEEING SOME LIGHT RETURNS ON RADAR OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS...
SO WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR A FEW MORE HOURS.
OTHERWISE NO OTHER CHANGES WERE NEEDED.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...RADAR DEPICTING STEADIER RAFL MAKING ITS
WAY ACROSS THE EASTERN 3RD OF THE CWA W/THE SATL IR IMAGERY LINING
UP W/THE ENHANCEMENT IN THE SAME REGION. THE GFS AND RUC LINING UP
QUITE WELL W/THE RAFL AT 06Z AND FOLLOWED THIS BLEND THROUGH TODAY
W/RAIN ENDING THIS MORNING W/SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH MID
MORNING AND THEN ENDING. THE GFSBC WAS BLENDED W/THE LAMP GUIDANCE
WHICH SHOWED A SURGE OF WARMER AIR PUSHING IN ACROSS THE EASTERN
1/2 OF THE CWA THIS MORNING. DECIDED TO BRING TEMPERATURES UP
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA TO NEAR 40F AND MID TO
UPPER 40S FROM HOULTON DOWN THROUGH WASHINGTON COUNTY AND SOUTH
THROUGH THE BANGOR AND BAR HARBOR REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL LEVEL
OFF LATER THIS MORNING AND THEN MAKE THEIR DECLINE AS SOME
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION. THIS IS ALREADY
TAKING PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN NH AND SW MAINE.
SOME WEAK RIDGING IS SHOWN BY THE GFS AND THE NAM TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION THIS EVENING W/SOME PARTIAL CLEARING. THIS WILL BE SHORT
LIVED HOWEVER AS THE UPPER TROF AND SFC COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE
STATE LATER IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE
ENOUGH FORCING TO KICK OFF SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTH AND WEST. CARRIED 30-40% POPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND
WESTERN AREAS. FURTHER EAST, FORCING LOOKS WEAK W/20% ADDED FOR
SOME FLURRIES OR A SNOW SHOWER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
FOR LATE JANUARY W/READINGS DROPPING BACK TO THE UPPER TEENS AND
LOWER 20S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WELL NORTHEAST OF THE REGION
ON WEDNESDAY. EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE NORTH AND
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DOWNEAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION ON
THURSDAY. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM ZERO TO 5 ABOVE
NORTH AND 10 TO 15 DOWNEAST. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOW TO MID 20S NORTH AND UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S DOWNEAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE STARTS
TO DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTHWEST. THIS LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TOWARD
THE REGION DURING FRIDAY AND THEN NORTHEAST INTO THE MARITIMES
FRIDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION
DURING FRIDAY. ACROSS THE NORTH PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE FORM OF SNOW WITH RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS DOWNEAST. THE LOW
WILL THEN TRACK TO OUR NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS. ANOTHER LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SOMEWHERE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST SUNDAY AND THEN TRACK NORTHEAST
SUNDAY NIGHT. DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK AND TIMING OF THIS
SYSTEM THERE COULD BE ANOTHER PERIOD OF SNOW LATER SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE JUST WENT WITH THE A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
WITH THIS SYSTEM FOR NOW SINCE THIS IS STILL ALONG WAY OUT AND
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TO THE
REGION FOR NEXT MONDAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL BE
NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL FRO THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR FOR ALL TERMINALS THIS MORNING GIVING WAY TO MVFR
BY MID MORNING AND THEN IT LOOKS LIKE VFR BY THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE NORTHERN TERMINALS(CAR-PQI &
HUL) AS CIGS COULD VERY WELL HIT MVFR LATER TONIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.
SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT IN WINTRY
PRECIPITATION. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN RETURN FOR SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS/SEAS ARE
AOA SCA LEVELS ATTM. THERE WILL BE A LULL IN THE WINDS LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. WINDS LOOK LIKE THEY WILL PICK UP
AGAIN TONIGHT W/THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROF. CARRIED GUSTS TO 25
KTS AS THINKING IS THAT SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE 15-20 KTS. SEAS
WILL STAY UP ABOVE SCA THROUGH TONIGHT. A BLEND OF THE SWAN AND
WNAWAVE WAS USED FOR THE SEAS WHICH KEEP HEIGHTS AOA 6 FT.
SHORT TERM: WIND/SEAS SHOULD BE BELOW SCA LEVELS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...THEN INCREASE TO SCA LEVELS BY FRIDAY.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...HASTINGS/HEWITT
MARINE...HASTINGS/HEWITT/
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
240 PM CST TUE JAN 24 2012
.DISCUSSION...
OVERALL THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN IS FAIRLY BENIGN WITH RESPECT TO
ITS IMPACT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER IN OUR AREA OVER THE UPCOMING WEEK.
WEST TO NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL PREDOMINATE... BRINGING PERIODIC
MOISTURE DEFICIENT SHORTWAVES THROUGH OUR AREA WHICH WILL
GENERALLY AMPLIFY ONCE THEY GET EAST OF OUR LONGITUDE.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE MOST PART...
WITH THE COLDEST PERIOD AND PERHAPS SOME BELOW NORMAL READINGS IN
STORE FOR SATURDAY INTO MONDAY. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR
DATA SHOW CLOUDS STREAMING IN FROM THE WEST AT THE CURRENT TIME...
AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH CAN BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR
MOVING INTO THE DAKOTAS. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW OBSERVATIONS OF
LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE... ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE
ACTIVITY IS STILL ALOFT AT THE CURRENT TIME. GIVEN THE LACK OF
GOOD MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE... THE 12Z GUIDANCE
FROM THE GFS AND NAM ARE UNDERSTANDABLY UNDERWHELMING IN THEIR
PRODUCTION OF PCPN AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING... ALTHOUGH ALL MANAGE TO SQUEEZE OUT A
LITTLE BIT OF PCPN GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF SOME DECENT ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND DPVA AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. THE HIGH RESOLUTION
SOLUTIONS... INCLUDING THE HRRR... ALSO SUGGEST A PERIOD OF SOME
LIGHT PCPN TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING... WITH A BETTER CO-LOCATION
OF SATURATION AND FORCING OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWFA.
RAISED POPS SOME WITH THIS SYSTEM... BUT KEPT THEM IN THE CHANCE
RANGE SINCE ALTHOUGH IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT IT WILL PRECIPITATE IT
IS STILL QUESTIONABLE AS TO WHETHER OR NOT IT WILL MEASURE.
ANOTHER SMALL CONCERN AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THOUGH TONIGHT IS
WHETHER THE ELEVATED WARM NOSE... WHICH LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE
AROUND 900-925MB... WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO CAUSE MELTING OF
HYDROMETEORS AS THEY DESCEND TO THE SURFACE. THE NAM IS THE MOST
BULLISH IN WARMING TEMPERATURES ALOFT... WHILE THE GFS AND RUC ARE
NOT AS STRONG WITH THE WARMING. THE UPSTREAM 12Z SOUNDING AT OMAHA
DEFINITELY SHOWED AN ABOVE FREEZING LAYER... SO THE QUESTION WILL
BE WHETHER IT IS ABLE TO COOL MUCH TOWARD THE WET BULB GIVEN THE
DRYNESS IN THE LAYER... OR IF MOISTURE ADVECTION OVERWHELMS THINGS
AND WE SIMPLY SEE THE WARM NOSE SATURATE WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURE. LOOKING AT THE UPSTREAM MIXING RATIOS IN THE
SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST ORIENTED AXIS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH... FEEL
THERE SHOULD BE A TENDENCY TO MOISTEN IN THAT LAYER QUITE A BIT...
SO THINK THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR AN ABOVE FREEZING WARM LAYER
FOR A TIME TONIGHT AS THE PCPN MOVES THROUGH... PARTICULARLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF I-90. WITH THAT IN MIND... INCLUDING A MENTION OF
SOME IP ALONG WITH SN OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA FOR TONIGHT.
ONCE TONIGHT/S SYSTEM GETS OUT OF OUR HAIR... THINGS LOOK TO BE
FAIR AND DRY THROUGH THURSDAY... WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR ANY
MEANINGFUL PCPN HOLDING OFF UNTIL FRIDAY. WARM ADVECTION WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO TOMORROW
EVENING... WITH A FRONTAL SLIDING ACROSS THE STATE TOMORROW NIGHT.
THIS FRONT IS THE ONE POTENTIAL PCPN PRODUCER PRIOR TO FRIDAY...
BUT AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO SEE
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WORK INTO THE AREA PRIOR TO ITS PASSAGE TO
WRING OUT ANY PCPN. IT/S POSSIBLE THAT LATER FORECASTS WILL NEED
TO INCLUDE SOME FLURRIES OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWFA FOR
TOMORROW NIGHT... BUT FOR NOW THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO STILL LOOKS
TO BE A DRY FROPA. A BRIEF COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE DROPS SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND NORTHWEST FLOW BRINGS A QUICK SHOT OF SOME MODIFIED
ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION. A SHORTWAVE THEN LOOKS TO SWING
THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY... WITH THE ECMWF AND GFS AND
REASONABLE AGREEMENT... ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS A BIT MORE
AMPLIFIED AND THEREFORE SLOWER AND ACCOMPANIED BY MORE IN THE WAY
OF PCPN. IN EITHER CASE... THERE LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH FORCING AND
DEEP LAYER SATURATION TO SUPPORT A MENTION OF POPS. UNFORTUNATELY
THE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND UNCERTAINTY REQUIRE BLANKETING A
LONGER PERIOD OF TIME WITH POPS THAN WHAT WILL EVENTUALLY OCCUR IN
REALITY... SO INCLUDED SOME CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW FROM FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA. LATER FORECASTS SHOULD
CERTAINLY BE ABLE TO NARROW AND FOCUS THIS TEMPORAL WINDOW ONCE
THINGS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.
A DECENT SLUG OF COLD AIR LOOKS TO DROP INTO THE REGION AFTER
SATURDAY/S SYSTEM MOVES BY... BUT IT WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS THE
GFS... ECMWF... AND THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE ALL SUPPORT THE IDEA
OF A SUBSTANTIAL RIDGE BUILDING TO OUR WEST BY THE SUNDAY-MONDAY
TIME FRAME. RETURN FLOW WILL START TO BRING IN WARMER TEMPERATURES
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RIDGE BY THE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY TIME
FRAME... WITH SOME PCPN POSSIBLY DEVELOPING IN THE AREA OF
ISENTROPIC ASCENT DURING THAT TIME FRAME. A SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED
PATTERN THEN LOOKS TO PERSIST INTO TUESDAY AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WORK TOWARD THE AREA. ALL OF THIS WINDS
UP LEADING TO THE INCLUSION OF SOME CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY... PARTICULARLY OVER THE
NORTHERN AND EASTERN PART OF THE CWFA WHERE BETTER SATURATION
ALONG THE SLOPED FRONTAL ZONE IS MORE LIKELY TO TAKE PLACE. IN
ADDITION... THINGS COULD CERTAINLY WARM ENOUGH BY MONDAY NIGHT OR
TUESDAY FOR SOME PTYPE ISSUES... SO INCLUDED SOME RN/SN MENTION BY
TUESDAY TO HIGHLIGHT THAT POSSIBILITY.
&&
.AVIATION.../18Z TAF ISSUANCE/
/ISSUED 1207 PM CST TUE JAN 24 2012/
LOW STRATUS HOLDING STRONG OVER THE AREA WITH A FEW BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS ENOUGH TO BRING COVERAGE TO SCT HERE AND THERE. LOW DECKS
WILL SCATTER OUT AND RISE TO VFR RANGES LATER THIS AFTN THROUGH
THIS EVE. OVERNIGHT...A WEAK SFC TROUGH ATTENDANT FROM A CDFNT
NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER WILL DROP THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN
APPROXIMATELY 06Z-12Z. SEVERAL HOURS OF MVFR CIGS CAN BE EXPECTED
ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS. PRECIP
CHCS ARE ONLY ARND 30 PERCENT SO HAVE KEPT A MORE OPTIMISTIC FCST
GOING ATTM. THOUGHT ABOUT POSSIBLY ADDING IN A PROB30 GROUP BUT AM
NOT EXPECTING ANY FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS TO DEGRADE VSBY LOWER
THAN 5-6SM AS MOISTURE IS PRETTY MEAGER AND DYNAMICS RATHER WEAK.
MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER THROUGH DAYBREAK THEN THE LOWER CIGS WILL
SCATTER OUT WHILE CIGS CONTINUE BETWEEN 5-10 KFT. NO WIND ISSUES.
MSP...CIGS HAVE DROPPED TO 1500FT OR BELOW DURING THE PAST HOUR
WITH SURROUNDING NEARBY SITES ALSO SHOWING CIGS 1500FT OR LOWER.
WITH SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE WESTERN CLOUD EDGE...WILL MAINTAIN THE
LOWER-RANGE MVFR CIGS FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE IMPROVING CONDS TO
VFR LATE THIS AFTN. AS A WEAK SFC TROUGH APPROACHES LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY TMRW MORNING...CLOUDS WILL LOWER BACK DOWN INTO MVFR
RANGE. THERE IS A SMALL CHC /30 PERCENT/ THAT FLURRIES OR SNOW
SHOWERS MAY PASS THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN APPROXIMATELY 06Z-12Z
BUT WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE AND WEAK DYNAMICS...DID NOT FEEL THIS
WARRANTED MENTION ATTM SO HAVE KEPT THE TAF DRY AND WILL LATER
LATER TAF ISSUANCES AND MODEL RUNS DETERMINE THE SCENARIO. AFTER
DAYBREAK...LOW CLOUDS SCATTER OUT AND LEAVE A VFR CIG IN PLACE
THROUGH THE DAY. NO WIND ISSUES.
OUTLOOK...
/WED NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT/...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO PREVAIL.
MAINLY VFR.
/FRI/...WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO DRIFT THROUGH THE AREA...
POSSIBLY BRINGING -SN AND MVFR CONDITIONS.
/FRI NIGHT THROUGH SUN/...HIGH PRESSURE TO PREVAIL. VFR.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
1247 PM EST TUE JAN 24 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA TODAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT TONIGHT AND SETTLE OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY. A
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY...BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE
CAROLINAS THURSDAY NIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM TUESDAY...
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT STILL LIES OVER THE FOOTHILLS THIS
MORNING...WITH A SLENDER RESIDUAL WEDGE AIRMASS LOCKED IN ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT. DEEP LAYER FLOW ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION IS ROUGHLY
PARALLEL TO THE FRONTAL ZONE...AND THE WEAK POSTFRONTAL SURFACE
HIGH IS STILL OVER THE MID MS VALLEY REGION. BASED ON THIS...THERE
IS VERY LITTLE FORCING TO PUSH THE FRONT EAST TODAY...AND THE
FOG/STRATUS THIS MORNING IS HAVING TO BURN OFF FROM THE TOP DOWN.
GIVEN THAT THE WEDGE AIRMASS HAS BEEN RELATIVELY IN PLACE FOR A
COUPLE OF DAYS NOW AND LOW LEVEL SATURATION IS STILL ABOUT 1500 FT
DEEP BASED ON THE 12Z RAOB FROM KGSO...THE FOG/STRATUS WILL BE
SLOPE TO ERODE...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE TRIAD AREA. VISIBILITIES OF
ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF MILE ARE COMMON THIS MORNING...EVEN AT
930AM. THEREFORE...THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL
NOON..THOUGH THERE WERE LIKELY BE SOME IMPROVEMENT ACROSS SOUTHERN
COUNTIES BY 11AM.
HIGHS WILL ALSO NEED TO BE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD IN AREAS WHERE FOG AND
STRATUS LINGER. THE 12Z HRRR APPEARS TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THE
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND ADJUST TEMPS WITH THE HRRR YIELDS
HIGHS IN THE MID 50S IN THE TRIAD TO MID 60S IN THE SOUTHEAST CWA.
TONIGHT:
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE OH VALLEY THIS
AFT/EVE IN ASSOCIATION WITH SYNOPTIC HEIGHT RISES/SUBSIDENCE IN THE
WAKE OF THE UPPER LOW TRACKING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES...BUILDING INTO CENTRAL NC FROM THE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH LINGERING LOW-LEVEL CLOUD COVER MAY STILL BE
PRESENT IN SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA AT SUNSET...CLEAR SKIES
ARE EXPECTED EVEN IN THE SOUTHEAST BY MIDNIGHT (AT LATEST) AS A
DRIER AIRMASS ADVECTS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. LOW TEMPS
WILL BE A FUNCTION OF BOTH RADIATIONAL COOLING AND COLD
ADVECTION...WITH 1000-850 MB THICKNESSES FALLING TO 1330-1340 METERS
FROM NW-SE BY 12Z WED MORNING. EXPECT LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE
LOWER/MID 30S IN THE N/NW PIEDMONT TO THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S IN THE
SOUTHEAST COASTAL PLAIN. -VINCENT
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 255 AM TUESDAY...
FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO GENERALLY
AGREE IN DEPICTING THE DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ~1030 MB TO EXTEND
OVER OUR REGION FROM THE NW ON WEDNESDAY... THEN SLOWLY SHIFT OFF TO
THE EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THURSDAY WILL BRING THE
APPROACH OF THE MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE GULF COAST STATES.
THIS LEADS TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A DRY DAY WEDNESDAY WITH A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE SW DURING THE DAY. HIGHS SHOULD
REACH THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. THE SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY
CLOUDY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE BECOMES MORE
EVIDENT ESPECIALLY IN THE MID LEVELS. LOWS WILL BE MILDER WITH
READINGS MOSTLY BETWEEN 40-45.
THURSDAY...THE COMBINATION OF THE APPROACHING MID-UPPER LEVEL STORM
ALONG WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM THE HIGH RETREATING
OFFSHORE WILL ALLOW FOR A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW OF DEEP
MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO CENTRAL NC BY LATE THURSDAY. MODELS ARE IN
GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT IN THAT THE RAIN WILL ARRIVE IN THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST PIEDMONT BY LATE AFTERNOON... WITH JUST A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN RAIN AREA MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM
FAYETTEVILLE TO RALEIGH DURING THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
TO HOLD OFF IN THE EAST UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGHS SHOULD EASILY
BUMP UP INTO THE 60S WITH 70 POSSIBLE FROM FAYETTEVILLE TO GOLDSBORO
IF WE GET A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 255 AM TUESDAY...
THE MODELS ARE TRENDING ON DAMPENING OUT/WEAKENING THE MID-UPPER
TROUGH...AND SPEEDING UP THE SYSTEM MOVEMENT THROUGH OUR REGION LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS HAS LED TO MODELS CUTTING BACK ON
THE QPF BY ABOUT HALF FROM THE TOTALS FORECAST BY THE OPERATIONAL EC
AND GFS 24 HOURS AGO. IN ADDITION...THE MAIN SURFACE LOW TRACK IS
NOW FORECAST TO BE UP ALONG THE MOUNTAINS...WITH A TRAILING COLD
FRONT TO PUSH EAST ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA FRIDAY.
24 HOURS AGO... THE MODELS INDICATED THE FORMATION OF ANOTHER WAVE
ON THE FRONT OVER CENTRAL NC. THEY HAVE SINCE BACKED OFF ON THIS
SCENARIO AS THE MID-UPPER WAVE IS NOW WEAKENING AND SPEEDING UP AS
IT MOVES OVER OUR REGION. REGARDLESS...A 6-12 HOUR PERIOD OF DEEP
MOISTURE INFLUX FROM THE GULF AND SUFFICIENT HEIGHT FALLS AND LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING A SIGNIFICANT
RAIN ON THE ORDER OF 0.5 TO POSSIBLY 1 INCH FOR THE EVENT.
SEVERE THREAT LOOKS MINIMAL WITH LITTLE TO NO CAPE AND MODERATE
SHEAR IN THE BAND OF SHOWERS. P-TYPE...ALL RAIN.
BEHIND THE SYSTEM...IT WILL BE MILD AND DRIER FRI NIGHT INTO SAT
NIGHT AWAITING A SHOT OF COLD AIR FOR SUNDAY. THIS SHOT OF COLD AIR
WILL BE BRIEF AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THIS ENTIRE LA NINA DRIVEN WINTER
SEASON FOR CENTRAL NC. STRONG CAA WILL LEAD TO THE CHILLIEST WEATHER
SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST AS THE HIGH
BUILDS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. WAA WILL BEGIN BY LATE MONDAY HERALDING
ANOTHER QUICK WARM-UP.
SENSIBLE WEATHER INCLUDES...
SHOWERS WEST AND DEVELOPING EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT. SHOWERS FRIDAY MORNING... ENDING FROM THE WEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. VERY MILD WITH LOWS IN THE 50S. HIGHS IN THE 60S FRIDAY.
MOSTLY CLEAR FRIDAY NIGHT AND COOLER. LOWS 30-35. MOSTLY SUNNY
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS 55-60. SUNDAY...PARTLY SUNNY BREEZY AND TURNING
COLDER. LOWS IN THE 30S. HIGHS IN THE 50S. CLEAR AND COLD SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. LOWS IN THE 20S. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 45-50 RANGE.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1245 PM TUESDAY...
CONDITIONS ARE FINALLY RETURNING TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG AND IFR/LIFR CEILINGS HAVE IMPROVED. A FEW
AREAS FROM WADESBORO TO LILLINGTON AND GOLDSBORO ARE STILL
REPORTING CEILINGS AROUND 1K FT...BUT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THIS CLOUD COVER SLOWLY ERODING ALSO. CLEAR SKIES SHOULD
PREVAIL BY MID-AFTERNOON. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD BACK
ACROSS THE TN VALLEY LATER TONIGHT AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM RAMPS
UP OVER THE SOUTHWEST US. LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL SLOW
TURN TO SOUTHERLY DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...BUT THE ARRIVAL OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL RETURN ON THURSDAY AS A STORM
SYSTEM LIFTS ACROSS THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...SMITH/VINCENT
SHORT TERM...BADGETT
LONG TERM...BADGETT
AVIATION...VINCENT/SMITH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
513 PM EST TUE JAN 24 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. A DEVELOPING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...BRINGING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO THE
OHIO VALLEY. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT AND THEN HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL RETURN ON FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A STUBBORN AREA OF LOW STRATUS WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION FOR AT
LEAST THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LATEST RUC GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THESE
CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO GRADUALLY ERODE LATER THIS EVENING AS A 500
MB RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE MS VALLEY PUSHES A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVER EASTERN CANADA FURTHER DOWNSTREAM. MEANWHILE...SFC HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR WILL BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
THIS EVENING...AND THE HIGH WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER THE REGION
OVERNIGHT.
SOME AREAS MAY EVEN BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR FOR A SHORT TIME TONIGHT
AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AS THE HIGH DRIFTS OVERHEAD. THUS...
EXPECTING DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT AND STUCK CLOSE TO
MOS GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPS WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER 20S IN THE
NORTH AND IN THE UPPER 20S ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL RAPIDLY ADVANCE INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF TO
THE SOUTHWEST. DESPITE A COOL START TO THE DAY AND SKIES BECOMING
MOSTLY CLOUDY BY AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER
THAN ON TUESDAY AS WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS. STUCK CLOSE TO
MOS GUIDANCE AGAIN FOR HIGHS WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S NORTH
TO LOWER 40S SOUTH.
INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST CWA BY 18Z
WEDNESDAY AS LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO PUSH PRECIP INTO
THE AREA WELL AHEAD OF THE ACTUAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. HOWEVER...BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
AS ISENTROPIC LIFT STRENGTHENS AND A SLOW MOVING FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE LOW APPROACHES...AND THE
LATEST ECMWF...NAM AND GFS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LOW TRACKING
NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN OH INTO WESTERN PA BY THURSDAY NIGHT.
HIGHEST QPF IS PLACED ACROSS SOUTHERN HALF OF CWA WITH THE LATEST
NAM/GFS BOTH SUGGESTING AROUND AN INCH. AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE OHIO RIVER WILL LIKELY SEE LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO AROUND
1.25 INCHES. THERE STILL REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...BUT WITH THE GROUND STILL VERY MOIST FROM
RECENT RAINFALL...MINOR FLOODING OF SOME AREA CREEKS AND STREAMS
WOULD BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL.
TEMPERATURE PROFILES INDICATE THAT PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS RAIN
IN THE SOUTH...BUT AREAS NORTH OF I-70 COULD SEE A BIT OF LIGHT
SNOW MIX IN WITH THE RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
A NEARLY ISOTHERMAL LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE PROFILE HOVERING RIGHT
AROUND FREEZING IN THE FAR NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SO A VERY BRIEF
PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN CANNOT BE RULED OUT ENTIRELY AT
THIS POINT FOR SOME AREAS IN THE FAR NORTH. DID NOT INCLUDE
MENTION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT DUE TO LINGERING UNCERTAINTY.
AS TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW FREEZING BEHIND A COLD FRONT THURSDAY
NIGHT...ANY LINGERING RAIN WILL LIKELY MIX WITH AND CHANGE OVER TO
SOME LIGHT SNOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END EARLY FRIDAY WITH THE LOW MOVING
RAPIDLY EASTWARD AWAY FROM OUR AREA. A WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD IN
PLACE BRIEFLY ON FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. AFTER THAT...A DEEP
UPPER LOW WILL SPIN SOUTHEASTWARD OVER ONTARIO. THIS WILL HELP
USHER IS AN ARCTIC AIRMASS OVER OUR REGION. MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...WHILE KEEPING THE LOW NEARLY STATIONARY
OVER SOUTHERN CANADA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
BREEZY AND COLD WEEKEND FOR OUR FORECAST AREA...WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL PIVOT AROUND THE LOW...WHICH
COULD PRODUCE INTERMITTENT LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY.
THE LOW OVER SOUTHERN CANADA IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD BY
MONDAY. RIDGING WILL THEN BUILD IN ITS PLACE...WITH A WARMING TREND
AND FAIR WEATHER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. A STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS MAY BRING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ON
TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AREA OF STUBBORN STRATUS CONTINUES TO LINGER ACROSS THE TAFS EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. SFC HIGH AND H5 RIDGE WILL BUILD IN LATER THIS
AFTN...BUT SOME OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT THE ST
WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE. LATEST SATELLITE LOOP IS SHOWING THE DEEPER
LOW CLOUDS ARE LIFTING FROM N TO S ACROSS NW OHIO...BUT MVFR CIGS
AROUND 2500 FT STILL REMAIN. AS WAA PICKS UP OVERNIGHT...EXPECT
THESE HIGH MVFR CLOUDS TO ERODE. AS FOR THE LOWER MVFR CIGS AFFECTING
THE TAFS...TIMING THE BACK EDGE WOULD BRING THEM INTO DAY/CMH AROUND
02Z...AND CVG/LUK AROUND 09Z. THIS MATCHES THE 12Z NAM12 H9 RH
FORECAST. THIS TIMING SEEMS REASONABLE FOR DAY/CMH...BUT TOO LONG
FOR CVG. THINK THAT AS WAA PICKS UP AFT 00Z THAT THE ST WILL ALSO
BEGIN TO ERODE FROM THE SW....SO SCT THE MVFR CIGS OUT BY 04Z IN
CVG/LUK.
MODELS ARE SHOWING AN INCREASE IN H3 MOISTURE AFT 00Z. NEVER SURE
IF THIS WILL SHOW UP AS A BKN CI DECK OR NOT...SO WENT WITH SCT
CI. AFT 12Z H5 MOISTURE ROLLS IN SO BROUGHT IN THE BKN CI THEN.
MODELS BRING OVERRUNNING LIFT IN DURING THE 24-30HR PORTION OF THE
CVG TAF. INTRODUCED A VCSH AFT 22Z TO COVER THE BEGINNING OF THE
PCPN DEVELOPMENT.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH
CONDITIONS AS LOW AS IFR POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KURZ
NEAR TERM...KURZ
SHORT TERM...KURZ
LONG TERM...LATTO
AVIATION...SITES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
104 PM EST TUE JAN 24 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY...PROVIDING A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER. LOW PRESSURE
TRAVELING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING PRECIPITATION LATE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE
BACK IN ON FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK S/W ROTATING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AROUND CLOSED H5 LOW IS
ENHANCING WRAP AROUND CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION. LATEST SATELLITE
LOOP IS SHOWING GOOD EXPANSE OF CLOUDS BACK TO THE W AND LATEST
RUNS OF THE NAM12 AND RUC13 ARE SHOWING THAT THE H9 MOISTURE WILL
LINGER INTO THE EVENING.
SO INCREASED THE CLOUD COVER FOR THIS AFTERNOON. WENT CLOUDY IN
THE N AND BECOMING CLOUDY IN THE S AND SE.
CURRENT TEMPERATURE FORECAST STILL LOOKED OK...SO NO CHANGES
THERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...PROVIDING
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LOWS IN THE 20S. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL
MOVE IN ON WEDNESDAY WELL AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE...WHICH WILL
CURTAIL SUNSHINE BY AFTERNOON. THE INCREASING CLOUDS AFTER A COOL
START WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN ON
TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY ALONG
AN AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHWEST.
THE PRECIPITATION WILL EXTEND UP THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH SOUTHERN
COUNTIES RECEIVING THE MOST. TEMPERATURE PROFILES INDICATE THAT
SNOW WILL MIX IN NORTH OF CINCINNATI AND PORTSMOUTH...BUT THE BULK
OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN NEAR THE OHIO
RIVER. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO 40 OR HIGHER ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WHICH WILL CHANCE ALL LINGERING PRECIPITATION TO RAIN.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY. MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH THIS
BOUNDARY SO CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IS LOW. LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT A SECONDARY TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH ON SUNDAY. BUT
TIMING FEATURES IN FAST NORTHWEST FLOW THAT FAR OUT IN TIME IS
PROBLEMATIC. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO START BUILDING IN ON
MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL EXCEPT OVER THE WEEKEND
WHEN THEY WILL COOL DOWN CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AREA OF STUBBORN STRATUS CONTINUES TO LINGER ACROSS THE TAFS EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. SFC HIGH AND H5 RIDGE WILL BUILD IN LATER THIS
AFTN...BUT SOME OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT THE ST
WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE. LATEST SATELLITE LOOP IS SHOWING THE DEEPER
LOW CLOUDS ARE LIFTING FROM N TO S ACROSS NW OHIO...BUT MVFR CIGS
AROUND 2500 FT STILL REMAIN. AS WAA PICKS UP OVERNIGHT...EXPECT
THESE HIGH MVFR CLOUDS TO ERODE. AS FOR THE LOWER MVFR CIGS AFFECTING
THE TAFS...TIMING THE BACK EDGE WOULD BRING THEM INTO DAY/CMH AROUND
02Z...AND CVG/LUK AROUND 09Z. THIS MATCHES THE 12Z NAM12 H9 RH
FORECAST. THIS TIMING SEEMS REASONABLE FOR DAY/CMH...BUT TOO LONG
FOR CVG. THINK THAT AS WAA PICKS UP AFT 00Z THAT THE ST WILL ALSO
BEGIN TO ERODE FROM THE SW....SO SCT THE MVFR CIGS OUT BY 04Z IN
CVG/LUK.
MODELS ARE SHOWING AN INCREASE IN H3 MOISTURE AFT 00Z. NEVER SURE
IF THIS WILL SHOW UP AS A BKN CI DECK OR NOT...SO WENT WITH SCT
CI. AFT 12Z H5 MOISTURE ROLLS IN SO BROUGHT IN THE BKN CI THEN.
MODELS BRING OVERRUNNING LIFT IN DURING THE 24-30HR PORTION OF THE
CVG TAF. INTRODUCED A VCSH AFT 22Z TO COVER THE BEGINNING OF THE
PCPN DEVELOPMENT.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH
CONDITIONS AS LOW AS IFR POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...SITES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PORTLAND OR
211 PM PST TUE JAN 24 2012
.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT...TURNING STEADIER
PRECIPITATION INTO SHOWERS...FAVORING THE COAST RANGE AND CASCADES.
THEN ANOTHER WET SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE W
WED EVENING...AND MOVE THROUGH EARLY THU. PRECIPITATION WILL WIND
DOWN LATE IN THE WEEK AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS. EXPECT FOGGY
CONDITIONS FRIDAY MORNING IN THE VALLEY. MORE RAIN IS LIKELY TO
RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN OFFSHORE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN.
&&
.SHORT TERM...MUCH OF THE CWA NOW RESIDES IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THIS
SYSTEM. QPF HAS BEEN A BIT OF A CHALLENGE...WITH INITIAL MOISTURE
CONTENT NOT BEING CO-LOCATED WITH THE WARM FRONT.. THAT SAID...WE
STILL HAVE A DECENT MOISTURE PLUME STILL POINTED AT NW OREGON AND
QUITE A BIT OF LIFT LEFT. AMSU ESTIMATED TPW IS STILL
INCREASING...UP TO 1.4 INCHES OFFSHORE...1.2 PER SPC RUC
MESOANALYSIS. 850 WINDS PER RUC ANALYSIS IN EXCESS OF 50 KT MEANS
GOOD MOISTURE STILL BEING TRANSPORTED TO THE REGION AND FORCING
AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING OFFSHORE COLD FRONT...SO THE HEAVY RAIN
THREAT IS NOT OVER. ADDITIONALLY...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT AS HAS BEEN OBSERVED IN THE COASTAL WATERS AND INLAND.
HAVE ADDED ISOLATED THUNDER EVERYWHERE WITH MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...ELEVATED INSTABILITY...AND SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
FOR CHARGE SEPARATION. UPDATED ZONES COMING SOON.
WINDS HAVE BEEN INCREASING IN THE WARM SECTOR...AND HAVE BEEN
SUSTAINED IN THE 30S AND 40S AT SEVERAL COASTAL HEADLAND
LOCATIONS...WITH GUSTS IN THE MID 50S SO FAR...AND SEVERAL GUSTS TO
AROUND 60 MPH. EXPECT WINDS TO EASE TONIGHT SIGNIFICANTLY AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
WE HAVE HAD REPORTS OF 3 INCHES OF SNOW IN HOOD RIVER FROM
SPOTTERS...UP TO 4 FEET IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AWAY FROM THE
GORGE...WITH A SWITCH TO A MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN
BRIEFLY...AND NOW SOME SPOTS JUST RAIN. ROAD REPORTS AS OF 1015 AM
INDICATED 3+ IN PARKDALE IN THE UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY...AND 5" AT
TIMBERLINE LODGE. EXPECT THAT SEVERAL EXTRA INCHES FELL AT PARKDALE
AS THIS REPORT WAS BEFORE ABOUT AN HOUR OF HEAVIER SNOW FELL. THE
GOOD NEWS IS...PRECIPITATION IS EASING IN THE LOWLANDS...SO
SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULUATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED...AND TEMPERATURES
ARE RISING. SPOTTERS DID REPORT LIGHT ICE ON THE GROUND IN
PARKDALE...BUT THAT TEMPS ARE ABOVE FREEZING AND IT IS RAINING. WILL
HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANY REFREEZING TONIGHT NEAR HOOD RIVER AFTER THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH...BUT AT THIS TIME THINK TEMPS WILL STAY ABOVE
FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY GRADIENTS PICKING UP.
PERIOD OF CONCERN WOULD BE LATE TONIGHT TOWARD MORNING AFTER THE
COLD FRONT MOVES IN.
MOIST WESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP THREAT OF PRECIPITATION GOING BEHIND
THE FRONT TONIGHT INTO WED...ESP OVER OROGRAPHICALLY AIDED
MOUNTAINS.SNOW LEVELS LOOK TO BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW PASS LEVEL...SO
EXPECT SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. THERE IS STILL AN AVALANCHE THREAT IN
THE MOUNTAINS...SO CAUTION IS URGED FOR OUTDOOR ENTHUSIASTS.
WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE DRIEST DAY...WIDESPREAD SPEAKING. A MORE
ORGANIZED THREAT OF RAIN COMES AGAIN WED NIGHT AND THU AS THE
TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME...NOT QUITE SO IMPRESSIVE AS TODAYS PLUME
(PW VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 0.8-0.9 VS. TODAY UP TO 1.2-1.3) LIFTS
BACK N INTO OREGON AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM. 850 WINDS ARE
ALSO A BIT WEAKER. THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSED SOUTH AND STALLED WILL
LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT WED EVE...THEN DRIVING A SFC LOW
INTO WASHINGTON STATE EARLY THU. ADDITIONAL FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY (IN ADDITION TO THAT PASSING TO THE NORTH) WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH...BRINGING ADDITIONAL PRECIP CHANCES FURTHER SOUTH.
HIGH PRES THAN BUILDS OFFSHORE THURS AND SPREADS INLAND THURSDAY
NIGHT AS PRECIP TAPERS FROM SHOWERS AND THEN DIMINISHES. HAVE BUMPED
TEMPERATURES DOWN FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT...GIVEN THE
EXPECTED RIDGE BUILDING IN AND RADIATIONAL COOLING. COOLING WILL BE
OFFSET BY FOG DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY MORNING WITH A VERY SATURATED
GROUND. KMD
.LONG TERM...EXTENDED MODELS ARE SLOWLY MOVING TOWARD AGREEMENT ON
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE
WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN SHIFT WOULD INDICATE A CHANGE TOWARD DRIER
CONDITIONS AND COOLER NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE WEEKEND WILL BE THE EXTENT AND
SEVERITY OF OVERNIGHT FOG DEVELOPMENT.
MODELS DO DIFFER ON TIMING BUT AGREE THAT A SHORTWAVE WILL RIDE OVER
TOP THE RIDGE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING A RETURN OF
PRECIPITATION AND USHERING IN ANOTHER ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN TO THE
PAC NW. THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM AFTER THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN
LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THOUGH
DETAILS ON STRENGTH AND TIMING HAVE YET TO SOLIDIFY AMONGST MODEL
SOLUTIONS. HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST TOWARD A RETURN OF
CLIMATOLOGICAL CONDITIONS BEGINNING EARLY NEXT WEEK. BROWN
&&
.AVIATION...PREDOMINANTLY LOW MVFR CONDITIONS IN MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SOME IFR IN AREAS OF HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT THE
COAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS ALSO EXPECTED INLAND. CONDITIONS GENERALLY BEGIN TO
IMPROVE LATE THIS EVENING AS THE TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
THE REGION. EXPECT A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD EVENTUALLY TRANSITIONING TO ALL VFR TOMORROW
MORNING.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AS WARM
FRONTAL RAIN CONTINUES. EXPECT BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS TO PICK UP
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. VFR RETURNING WITH UNSTABLE POST FRONTAL AIR
MASS DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. JFP
&&
.MARINE...WINDS CONTINUE IN THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE WITH GUSTS TO 35
KT OVER THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT PUSHES ONSHORE.
EXPECT BORDERLINE GALE FORCE WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING
BEFORE TURNING MORE WESTERLY AND DROPPING OFF SIGNIFICANTLY THIS
EVENING AS A TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. WINDS WILL REMAIN
ABOVE 20 KT THROUGH WED BEFORE DROPPING OFF THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.
SEAS HAVE BUILT INTO THE MID TEENS AND WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
RISE THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. EXPECT SEAS NEAR 20 FT BY LATE THIS
EVENING AND INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S BY TOMORROW MORNING. SEAS SHOULD
DROP BELOW 20 FT THU MORNING AND CONTINUE STEADILY DROPPING THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...EVENTUALLY REACHING NEAR OR BELOW 10 FT
FOR THE WEEKEND. JFP
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR CASCADE FOOTHILLS IN
LANE COUNTY-CENTRAL COAST RANGE OF WESTERN OREGON-CENTRAL
OREGON COAST-CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY-COAST RANGE OF
NORTHWEST OREGON-GREATER PORTLAND METRO AREA-LOWER COLUMBIA-
NORTH OREGON COAST-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-SOUTH
WILLAMETTE VALLEY-UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY-WESTERN COLUMBIA
RIVER GORGE.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 4 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR CENTRAL
OREGON COAST-NORTH OREGON COAST.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CENTRAL
OREGON COAST-NORTH OREGON COAST.
WA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR GREATER VANCOUVER
AREA- I-5 CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ COUNTY-SOUTH
WASHINGTON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-SOUTH WASHINGTON
COAST-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-WILLAPA HILLS.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 4 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR SOUTH
WASHINGTON COAST.
PZ...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS
FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 5 AM
PST WEDNESDAY.
$$
MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NWS RAPID CITY SD
1122 AM MST TUE JAN 24 2012
.UPDATE...18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
NORTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA TO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. REGIONAL
RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A NARROW BAND OF SNOW EXTENDING FROM SOUTH OF
MOBRIDGE TO PHILIP TO PINE RIDGE. WHICH IS ASSOCIATED WITH A BAND
OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WHICH IS WELL DEPICTED IN THE MODELS.
MODELS SHOW THE FRONTOGENESIS REGION MOVING ONLY SLIGHTLY FARTHER
SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND GRADUALLY WEAKENING...BRINGING AN END
TO THE LIGHT SNOW LATER THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE SKIES ARE CLEAR
OVER NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE
FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION...18Z TAF UPDATE
MVFR CONDITIONS...WITH AREAS OF IFR...WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON. NORTHEASTERN WYOMING
HAS ALREADY CLEARED TO VFR CONDITIONS...AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
WILL BECOME VFR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS BANDS OF SNOW EXIT THE AREA.
WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING AND BECOME BREEZY IN
NORTHEAST WYOMING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 527 AM MST TUE JAN 24 2012/
UPDATE...NARROW BAND OF MODERATE FRONTOGENESIS FROM 850-600MB
FRONTOGENESIS IS MAKING MAXIMUM USAGE OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE THIS
MORNING FROM THE BLACK HILLS ONTO PORTIONS OF THE SD PLAINS. WILL
UPDATE FORECAST FOR HIGHER POPS AND SPREAD HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS
ONTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS OF THE BLACK HILLS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 223 AM MST TUE JAN 24 2012/
DISCUSSION...09Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW OVER NORTH CENTRAL CO
WITH TROUGH INTO WESTERN ND. WATER VAPOUR HAD UPPER TROUGH
STRETCHING FROM SOUTHERN SK INTO AZ. MAIN SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN AZ
AND MOVING ACROSS MT INTO ND. MAINLY A SHEAR AXIS TO MOVE THROUGH
THE CWA TODAY...BUT LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW RETURNS INCREASING
ACROSS THE CWA. 06Z RUC PICKS UP ON THIS TREND WITH MODEST BAND OF
FRONTOGENESIS ALONG TROUGH...WHICH WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY. 00Z KUNR SOUNDING AND MODIFIED 09Z FORECAST SOUNDING
STILL SHOWS LOWEST 2KM OF TROPOSPHERE FAIRLY DRY. SOME LIFT WILL
BE WASTED. WILL BE MAKING LAST MINUTE ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS BASED ON
LATEST TRENDS. A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED
BEHIND TROUGH IN THE SQUEEZE ZONE JUST NORTH THROUGH EAST OF THE
BLACK HILLS. TEMPERATURES NEAR GUIDANCE.
TONIGHT...WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE ALOFT PASSES THROUGH WITH HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTING SOUTH. RETURN FLOW STARTS IN EARNEST OVERNIGHT
AS SHORTWAVE ZIPS ACROSS THE MT/SK BORDER. TYPICAL AREAS IN
NORTHEASTERN WY/BLACK HILLS WILL SEE BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AS
WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISALLOBARIC FORCING COMMENCES.
WEDNESDAY...WARM FRONT QUICKLY MOVES EAST OF THE CWA WITH COLD
FRONT DROPPING INTO THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON AS SURFACE LOW
MOVES FROM SK INTO MB. DOWNSLOPE FLOW AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WILL
PROMOTE TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5-10F ABOVE NORMAL. WINDY SPOTS WILL
DEVELOP ON THE SD PLAINS. TEMPERATURES NEAR GUIDANCE.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY...UPPER FLOW BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY WITH A
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVING FROM AB INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.
BEST LIFT WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA WITH
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE MOST NOTABLE. TEMPERATURES NEAR GUIDANCE.
EXTENDED...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH A CANADIAN LOW
WILL PRODUCE BREEZY WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES...THOUGH STILL SEASONABLY
AVERAGE...ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. WARMER AIR WILL ADVECT IN
FROM THE WEST SUNDAY WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT
WEEK. SOME AREAS MAY SEE SOME RAIN OR SNOW SUNDAY AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE AREA.
AVIATION...12Z TAFS
CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DETERIORATE TO
MVFR...WITH AREAS OF IFR...AS -SN DEVELOPS OVER NORTHEAST WYOMING
AND FAR WESTERN/SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
ACROSS FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS
RETURNING AREA WIDE BY 00Z.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...WFO UNR
LONG TERM...WFO UNR
AVIATION...EWY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ABERDEEN SD
1141 AM CST TUE JAN 24 2012
.UPDATE...
SOME FOG AND LOW CEILINGS HOLDING IN THE WATERTOWN AREA THIS
MORNING AND SHOULD BURN OFF BY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH AXIS TO THE WEST WILL BE SLIDING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE EVENING. QUITE A BIT OF ECHOES ON THE RADAR THIS MORNING WITH
NOTHING SHOWING UP AT THE SURFACE. LIGHT SNOW HAVING A HARD TIME
MAKING IT THROUGH THE DRY AIR BELOW. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL SHOWS
SOME LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THUS...ADJUSTED
POPS OUT WEST AND ADDED SOME SCT FLURRIES INTO THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. OTHERWISE...CLOUD COVER WILL AFFECT
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY AND ADJUSTED THEM DOWN IN THE EASTERN
CWA. WARMER AIR TO THE WEST BEHIND THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL PUSH
INTO CENTRAL SD AS THE WINDS TURN WEST THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY
HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE THE MAIN
FORECAST CHALLENGE.
AS OF 9Z A WARM FRONT IS LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS. TEMPERATURES BEHIND THIS FRONT ARE IN THE LOWER
20S...WITH A FEW 30 DEGREE READINGS IN WYOMING. THERE IS SOME MID
LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT ASSOCIATED ALONG THE WARM FRONT AND SHORT
WAVE...WHICH COULD RESULT IN SCATTERED FLURRIES THROUGH NOON.
TEMPS AT H85 DO WARM TO AROUND 0C BY THIS EVENING...AND WITH
DECENT MIXING WINDS...SOME OF THIS WARM AIR SHOULD REACH THE
SURFACE. HOWEVER WITH A SNOW DEPTH OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OR SO ACROSS
THE CWA...THIS WILL LIKELY LIMIT SOME OF THE WARMING POTENTIAL.
THE COMBINATION OF ADDED LLM DUE TO SNOW MELT TODAY...AND LIGHT
WINDS TONIGHT...BELIEVE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. WAA SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPS AT
H85 WARMING TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO. FAVORABLE WIND
DIRECTION FROM THE SOUTHWEST...SHIFTING TO THE WEST SHOULD ALLOW
FOR TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 30S...AND LOWER 40S.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN MILD AS WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING. HOWEVER A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION AROUND 12Z THURSDAY WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE FORECAST. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY SHOULD STILL REACH THE LOWER 30S HOWEVER.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
NUMERICAL PREDICTION MODELS ARE SOMEWHAT SLOWER WITH THE RETURN
TO COLDER/SEASONAL AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY. LATEST RUNS
NOW HOLDING OFF ON THE SFC COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND ASSOCIATED
STRONG CAA UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT. WARMED HIGH TEMPERATURES
APPROXIMATELY 5-8F FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A RESULT. COLD
NORTHERLY BREEZES WILL USHER IN AN A CONTINENTAL POLAR AIRMASS
SOUTHWARD THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE COLD AIR INTRUSION WILL BE
BRIEF...HOWEVER..SLIDING EAST OF THE REGION DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
STRONG WAA IS ANTICIPATED FOR SUNDAY WITH BREEZY TO WINDY SOUTH
WINDS AND INCREASING CLOUDS. SCT FLURRIES ARE ALSO A POSSIBILITY
EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER AS WAA MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH ATMOSPHERIC
ASCENT/UPGLIDE OVER THIS REGION. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...ALBEIT THE ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY
SLOWER...USHERING IN A MILD PACIFIC AIRMASS AND A RETURN TO ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SPREADING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW STRETCHES FROM SW
SODAK NEWD INTO NC SODAK...AND IS SLOWLY WORKING EAST. KMBG HAS
REPORTED SOME LIGHT SNOW ALREADY AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO FOR A
FEW MORE HOURS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE CLOUDS/PRECIP CLEAR OUT.
LIGHT SNOW IS ALSO PROBABLE AT KPIR AND KABR MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING...WHILE A FEW HOURS OF LIGHT SNOW REMAINS
POSSIBLE AT THE KATY TERMINAL THIS EVENING AS THE BAND OF LIGHT
SNOW BEGINS TO DISSIPATE. EXPECT LOW END VFR TO HIGH END MVFR
CIGS AND VISBIES TO BE THE PREVAILING FLIGHT CATEGORY IN SNOW.
OTHERWISE...VFR FLYING WEATHER WILL PREVAIL. SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM
WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING AND
WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE...MAKING
PATCHY FOG A POSSIBILITY OVERNIGHT...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...CHURCH
AVIATION...DORN
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ABERDEEN SD
1043 AM CST TUE JAN 24 2012
.UPDATE...
SOME FOG AND LOW CEILINGS HOLDING IN THE WATERTOWN AREA THIS
MORNING AND SHOULD BURN OFF BY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH AXIS TO THE WEST WILL BE SLIDING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE EVENING. QUITE A BIT OF ECHOES ON THE RADAR THIS MORNING WITH
NOTHING SHOWING UP AT THE SURFACE. LIGHT SNOW HAVING A HARD TIME
MAKING IT THROUGH THE DRY AIR BELOW. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL SHOWS
SOME LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THUS...ADJUSTED
POPS OUT WEST AND ADDED SOME SCT FLURRIES INTO THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. OTHERWISE...CLOUD COVER WILL AFFECT
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY AND ADJUSTED THEM DOWN IN THE EASTERN
CWA. WARMER AIR TO THE WEST BEHIND THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL PUSH
INTO CENTRAL SD AS THE WINDS TURN WEST THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY
HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE THE MAIN
FORECAST CHALLENGE.
AS OF 9Z A WARM FRONT IS LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS. TEMPERATURES BEHIND THIS FRONT ARE IN THE LOWER
20S...WITH A FEW 30 DEGREE READINGS IN WYOMING. THERE IS SOME MID
LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT ASSOCIATED ALONG THE WARM FRONT AND SHORT
WAVE...WHICH COULD RESULT IN SCATTERED FLURRIES THROUGH NOON.
TEMPS AT H85 DO WARM TO AROUND 0C BY THIS EVENING...AND WITH
DECENT MIXING WINDS...SOME OF THIS WARM AIR SHOULD REACH THE
SURFACE. HOWEVER WITH A SNOW DEPTH OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OR SO ACROSS
THE CWA...THIS WILL LIKELY LIMIT SOME OF THE WARMING POTENTIAL.
THE COMBINATION OF ADDED LLM DUE TO SNOW MELT TODAY...AND LIGHT WINDS
TONIGHT...BELIEVE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WAA
SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPS AT H85 WARMING TO
THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO. FAVORABLE WIND DIRECTION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...SHIFTING TO THE WEST SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO
CLIMB INTO THE 30S...AND LOWER 40S.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN MILD AS WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING. HOWEVER A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION AROUND 12Z THURSDAY WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE FORECAST. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY SHOULD STILL REACH THE LOWER 30S HOWEVER.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
NUMERICAL PREDICTION MODELS ARE SOMEWHAT SLOWER WITH THE RETURN
TO COLDER/SEASONAL AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY. LATEST RUNS NOW
HOLDING OFF ON THE SFC COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND ASSOCIATED STRONG
CAA UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT. WARMED HIGH TEMPERATURES APPROXIMATELY 5-8F
FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A RESULT. COLD NORTHERLY BREEZES WILL USHER IN AN A
CONTINENTAL POLAR AIRMASS SOUTHWARD THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE COLD AIR
INTRUSION WILL BE BRIEF...HOWEVER..SLIDING EAST OF THE REGION
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. STRONG WAA IS ANTICIPATED FOR SUNDAY WITH
BREEZY TO WINDY SOUTH WINDS AND INCREASING CLOUDS. SCT FLURRIES
ARE ALSO A POSSIBILITY EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER AS WAA MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH
ATMOSPHERIC ASCENT/UPGLIDE OVER THIS REGION. MODELS REMAIN IN
GOOD AGREEMENT SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...ALBEIT THE ECMWF IS
SLIGHTLY SLOWER...USHERING IN A MILD PACIFIC AIRMASS AND A RETURN
TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING WDSPRD MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS TO THE REGION TODAY. LCL LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KMBG
AND KPIR BY ABOUT MID-DAY AND AT KABR AND KATY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. LOW END VFR TO HIGH END MVFR CIGS ALONG WITH BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR VSBYS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH THE -SN. SKIES WILL CLEAR
BY THIS EVENING...MAKING PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. LIGHT
WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...CHURCH
AVIATION...CHURCH
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN