Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 01/20/12

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DENVER CO

821 PM MST THU JAN 19 2012

.UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...HAVE ADDED A SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY FOR MTN
AREAS NORTH OF I-70 THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL JET
WILL SAG SOUTHWARD OVER THE NRN MTNS OVERNIGHT AND COMBINE WITH
DEEPER MOISTURE TO ALLOW FOR SOME ENHANCEMENT OF SNOWFALL ALONG
WITH GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES ALTHOUGH LAPSE RATES ARE NOT THAT GREAT. MAY
STILL SEE A PERIOD OF HIGH WINDS IN THE NORMALLY WINDY AREAS OF
THE FOOTHILLS AFTER MIDNIGHT THRU EARLY FRI MORNING ALTHOUGH THE
SET UP IS NOT AS FAVORABLE AS LAST NIGHT.

.AVIATION...WINDS HAVE BECOME MORE WLY AT THE AIRPORT THIS EVENING. SHORT
RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN USELESS IN FORECASTING WIND DIRECTIONS THIS
EVENING. WILL KEEP A GENERAL WLY COMPONENT OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH THE
CURRENT NAM AND RUC SHOW WINDS BECOMING MORE SSW IN THE 10Z-12Z
TIMEFRAME.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 225 PM MST THU JAN 19 2012/

SHORT TERM...MAIN CONCERN THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING IS YET MORE HIGH
WIND POTENTIAL IN THE FOOTHILLS TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
LOOKS LIKE A SIMILAR SET UP LIKE LAST NIGHT FOR THE STRONG WINDS
TO DEVELOP. CROSS SECTIONS SHOW THE STRONG WINDS SLIDING DOWN EAST
SLOPES OF 60-75KT OF CROSS BARRIER FLOW. SHEAR PROFILE LOOKS GOOD
FROM AMPLIFIED WAVE AND STABILITY IMPROVES THROUGH THE NIGHT. WILL
GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE FOOTHILLS ZONES.
NOT SURE ABOUT THE BASE OF THE FOOTHILLS AS ANY HIGH WIND WOULD
LIKELY BE MORE LOCALIZED LIKE THIS MORNING AND CONFINED TO ONLY A
FEW SPOTS.

AS FOR THE MOUNTAINS QUITE A BIT OF DISCUSSION BETWEEN OFFICES IN
THE SNOW POTENTIAL FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. OVERALL FEELING IS THAT
THE MOISTURE WON`T BE ALL THAT DEEP ALONG WITH MARGINAL LAPSE
RATES AROUND 4C/KM. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS ACROSS UTAH AND NEVADA
NOT SHOWING MUCH PRECIP WITH CEILINGS MAINLY ABOVE 6,000 FEET.
MODEL CROSS SECTIONS NOT ALL THAT DEEP WITH THE MOISTURE YET THE
NAM INDICATES ALMOST 10 INCHES OVER ZONE 31. THINK THIS IS
OVERDONE AND WILL GO MORE CONSERVATIVE.

ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS...AIRMASS WILL BE DRY AND MILD EXCEPT OVER
THE FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS WITH COOLER AIRMASS STILL IN PLACE.

LONG TERM...SNOW WILL BE DIMINISHING OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS
FRIDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD. WILL LIKELY SEE
COOLER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT FORECAST AREA WIDE DESPITE THE
RIDGING AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS AND ALLOWS FOR
LIGHT WINDS AND RADIATIONAL COOLING.

THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH WILL QUICKLY MOVE WENCHER OVER THE WEST
COAST SATURDAY MORNING QUICKLY MOVING EAST TO AFFECT COLORADO THAT
DAY. SNOW WILL BE INCREASING DUE TO DYNAMICS AND OROGRAPHICS AS
THE MOISTURE DEEPENS IN WESTERLY FLOW AND LAPSE RATES BECOME
FAVORABLE. THIS ALONG WITH MODERATE UPWARD QG VERTICAL VELOCITIES
PASSING OVERHEAD WILL ALLOW FOR SNOW TO REACH DOWN INTO THE HIGH
VALLEYS AS WELL BUT STILL BE FOCUSED ON WESTERLY SLOPES. EXPECTING
A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW FOR THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY
NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES TO BRING THE MORE FAVORABLE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 FEET ALONG WEST SLOPES ARE
VERY POSSIBLE FOR THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...WILL LIKELY
NEED HIGHLIGHTS AS THIS TIME PERIOD NEARS. WINDS MAY BE A CONCERN
AS WELL WITH THE FRONT WHICH WOULD PRODUCE BLOWING SNOW. AS THE
FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS FORM OVER THE
PLAINS BUT LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER SUNDAY...AND
MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED STILL.

RIDGING BEHIND THIS STRONGER SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH THE
SNOW OVER THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT. MONDAY WILL BE ANOTHER SHORT
BREAK WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM IN THE
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN APPROACHES FOR TUESDAY...THEN MORE OF A ZONAL
FLOW IS EXPECTED OVER THE STATE AS MODELS SHOW A CUTOFF LOW OVER
MEXICO. WILL KEEP POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THIS PERIOD DUE
TO THE RELATIVELY MOIST WESTERLY FLOW AND ALSO DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES
WITH THESE SYSTEMS. FOR THE PLAINS...OTHER THAN LOW POPS FOR THE
SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT TUESDAY WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY. HIGHS WILL
BE NEAR NORMAL DURING AND AFTER THE TROUGH PASSAGE
TUESDAY...OTHERWISE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR
NORTHEAST COLORADO.

AVIATION...LOOKS LIKE WINDS AT APA AND DEN WILL REMAIN FROM THE
EAST AND BJC FROM THE WEST FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AS
MESOCYCLONE REMAINS OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF DENVER. BJC WILL
HAVE PUFFS OF WESTERLY WINDS AND MAYBE A BIT STRONGER LATER
TONIGHT BUT NOT ALL THAT CONFIDENT BASED ON THEIR LACK OF WIND
FROM LAST NIGHT. APA AND DEN SHOULD SHIFT A BIT MORE SW-W FOR
TONIGHT.

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 AM MST FRIDAY FOR COZ035-036.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST FRIDAY FOR COZ031-033.

SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM....KRIEDERMAN
AVIATION...RPK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ALBANY NY

1229 AM EST WED JAN 18 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN AND INTENSIFY...AS MOVES ALONG
THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT TO THE
SYSTEM WILL SWING ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
OVERNIGHT...WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS...BLUSTERY...AND COLD
CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY MORNING...AS A CLIPPER LOW WILL
BRING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
VERY STRONG WINDS JUST OUTSIDE THE FORECAST AREA COULD SCRAPE THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY EARY THHIS MORNING
AND INTO MID MORNING. SO...A HIGH WIND WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED
THERE. THE PRESSURE RISE FALL COUPLET IS TRACKING NORTHEAST ALONG
AND JUST NORTH OF THE U.S. CANADIAN BORDER WHICH IMPLIES THE
STRONGEST WINDS MAY JUST MISS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...BUT CLOSE
ENOUGH WHERE IS WOULD BE BEST TO WARN PEOPLE OF THE POSSIBILITY OF
DAMAGING WINDS JUST IN CASE. OF COURSE THE WIND ADVISORY IS STILL
IN EFFECT FOR OTHER AREAS.

JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES BASED ON CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS.

PREV AFD BELOW...

AS OF 930 PM...FORECAST ON TRACK. UPDATED POPS TO TIME COLD FRONT
AND SHOWERS ACROSS FORECAST AREA. HAVE LIKELY POPS ALONG BOUNDARY.
WINDS WILL SHIFT AND INCREASE BECOMING GUSTY WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS BASED ON OBSERVATIONAL
DATA.

AS OF 630 PM EST...WE WILL BE ALLOWING THE WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR
THE MIXTURE OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN TO EXPIRE AT 7 PM. THE
MESONET OBSERVATIONS SHOW TEMPERATURES HAVE MOSTLY RISEN ABOVE
FREEZING AT THIS TIME...AND THE BATCH OF PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED
WELL EAST OF THE REGION. WE HAVE TRIED TO TIME THE SHOWERS IN
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. A NARROW COLD FRONTAL RAIN BAND HAS
DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER WRN NY WITH SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE CONVECTION. HOWEVER...WE BELIEVE THIS SHOULD WEAKEN OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE WIND ADVISORY OVER
THE FORECAST AREA WITH GUSTS TO 50-55 MPH. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS IF ANY UPGRADE TO A HIGH WIND
WARNING IS NECESSARY. OVERALL...HAVE PCPN CHANGING FROM RAIN TO
SNOW SHOWERS SHORTLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION....AND SOUTH AND EAST BTWN 06Z-09Z. THE SHOWALTER VALUES
ARE GENERALLY +1 TO +3C AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SO WE WILL NOT BE
INCLUDING THUNDER AT THIS TIME. WE WILL ADD SOME PATCHY FOG OVER
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND NW CT PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT TOO.

PREVIOUS NEAR TERM...

AS OF 4 PM...IT HAS BEEN ANOTHER ACTIVE AND BUSY DAY ACROSS THE
ALY FORECAST AREA. THE NRN TIER HAS HAD MANY LOCATIONS HUNG UP IN
THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR THE FREEZING MARK IN THE THE MID TO LATE
PM...AS THE CURRENT AREA OF PCPN ON THE KENX/NORTHEAST MOSAIC
RADAR HAS PRODUCED PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN. WE HAD ONE REPORT
COME IN AT 3 PM IN FAIRFIELD OF HERKIMER COUNTY WITH TWO TENTHS OF
AN INCH OF ICE...AND A TEMP OF 31F. THE POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM JUST NORTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE THIS HOUR HAS A
DOUBLE WARM FRONT STRUCTURE. THE FIRST WEAK WARM FRONT WENT
THROUGH MOST THE REGION THIS MORNING. A SECOND WARM FRONT OR
THERMAL TROUGH WITH A SHORT-WAVE IN THE SW FLOW HAS FOCUSED THE
AREA OF PCPN. WE WILL BE EXTENDING THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
THE ERN DACKS...LAKE GEORGE-NRN SARATOGA REGION...AND SRN VT
UNTIL 7 PM. WE WILL BE EXPIRING HERKIMER...MONTGOMERY...SRN FULTON
COUNTIES AT 4 PM...AND PHRASE IT AS POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN...AS
THE LATEST MESONET SITES SHOW TEMPERATURES WARMING ABOVE FREEZING
AT THIS TIME IN THESE SPOTS.

THE OTHER BIG ISSUE TONIGHT IS THE SFC CYCLONE MOVING NORTHEAST
ALONG THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY. THE NAM20 INDICATES AN
IMPRESSIVE ISALLOBARIC RISE-FALL PRESSURE COUPLET. WE ARE
EXPECTING 10-12 HPA/3 HRS RISES MOVING NEAR MASSENA WITH THE
DEEPENING AND INTENSIFYING WAVE EARLY THIS EVENING. THE GREATEST PRESSURE
RISES IN OUR AREA ARE 5-6 HPA/3 HRS. WE HAVE EXPANDED THE WIND
ADVISORY TO INCLUDE THE WRN AND SRN DACKS...LAKE GEORGE NRN
SARATOGA REGION...AND SRN VT...AS WELL AS NRN LITCHFIELD CTY CT.
BASICALLY OUR ENTIRE FCST AREA IS IN A WIND ADVISORY BY 10 PM
TONIGHT TO 3 PM TOMORROW...EXCEPT FOR THE MID HUDSON VALLEY /ERN
ULSTER...AND DUTCHESS COUNTIES/...AND SRN LITCHFIELD CTY CT.
THANKS FOR THE COLLABORATION WITH BOX AND OKX FOR THE ADDITION OF
NRN LITCHFIELD CTY. THE H850 WINDS RAMP UP TO 50-70 KTS
TONIGHT...INITIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF KALB PRIOR TO
MIDNIGHT...THEN THEY OVERSPREAD THE REGION. THE 925 HPA WINDS
INCREASE TO 35-50 KTS BTWN 06Z-12Z WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
OCCURRING ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.
THE LATEST 18Z NAM40 GUIDANCE HAS H850 TEMPS FALL TO -10C TO -15C
BY 12Z. WE MAY HAVE OUR ACTUAL MAX TEMPS OCCUR AROUND OR SHORTLY
AFTER 12Z TOMORROW.

THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF UPSLOPE SNOWFALL ALONG THE WRN SPINE OF
THE WRN DACKS...N-CNTRL TACONICS...AND THE SRN GREENS. THE SHOWERS
QUICKLY TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BTWN
03Z-06Z FROM KALB NORTH AND WEST...AND 06Z-09Z SOUTH AND EAST. WE
ARE DEALING WITH A OPEN WAVE...AND THE PERIOD OF OROGRAPHIC
UPSLOPE SNOWFALL SHOULD BE QUICK WITH POSSIBLY 1 TO 4 INCHES
ACROSS THE SRN DACKS/WRN MOHAWK VALLEY...AND 1-2 INCHES OVER THE
SRN GREENS.

WE DID NOT ISSUE ANY LAKE EFFECT/WINTER WX HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.
AGAIN...THE LATEST HIRES WRF...AND HRRR SHOW A NARROW PERIOD WITH
THIS SNOWFALL WITH IT TRANSLATING TO SOME MULTIBANDS TOWARDS
DAYBREAK. WE WILL CONTINUE TO EVALUATE IF ANY HEADLINES ARE
NEEDED...BUT AT THIS TIME THE WINDS LOOK LIKE THE BIGGEST ISSUE.

EXPECT TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE TEENS OVER THE SRN DACKS...AND 20S
OVER MOST OF THE REST OF THE REGION...EXCEPT FOR THE THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY...AND SRN LITCHFIELD CTY WHERE SOME LOWER 30S ARE POSSIBLE.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER PROFILES INDICATE WIND
ADVISORY GUSTS ARE STILL POSSIBLE INTO THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
IF WE MIX TO 875-900 HPA OR SO. IF WE MIX HIGHER...THEN WE COULD
APPROACH SOME 50 KT GUSTS. OVERALL...NW WIND GUSTS OF 45-55 MPH
ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL ABOUT 20Z. KPOU IS MARGINAL WITH THE GUST
POTENTIAL AROUND 35 KTS OR SO. WE KEPT THAT LOCATION OUT OF THE
WIND ADVISORY. BLUSTERY AND COLD CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH
TEMPS FALLING IN THE 20S AND TEENS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH COLD
ADVECTION CONTINUING WITH H850 TEMPS FALLING TO -15C TO -20C. THE
NW FLOW FAVORS MULTIBANDS OVER CNTRL NY TOMORROW. SOME OF THE
NARROW MULTIBANDS CREEP INTO THE WRN MOHAWK VALLEY...AND ERN
CATSKILLS. A COATING TO AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE. WE
TENDED TO DECREASE THE POPS TO SLIGHT OR LOW CHC VALUES OVER THE
SRN GREENS...NRN TACONICS...AND BERKSHIRES WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER
DRYING OUT /WE ARE LOSING THE MOISTURE HERE/ AND THE MESOSCALE
GUIDANCE SHOWING LESS OF AN UPSLOPE EVENT.

IN THE LATE AFTERNOON...THE UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS OVER KYSR...AND
KRME SHOW THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LOWERING TO 4-5 KFT AGL
SQUELCHING ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY RIDGES IN OVER NY AND NEW
ENGLAND WITH COLD AND DRY WEATHER. THE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE...AND
EXPECT DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH LOWS ZERO TO 10 BELOW OVER
THE LAKE GEORGE REGION...AND SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...SINGLE DIGITS
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT 10 TO 15F IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND SRN
LITCHFIELD CTY CT.

THU-THU NIGHT...ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AND SRN ONTARIO FOR LATE THU. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE
DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY PM...AS THE WARM ADVECTION
INCREASES. WE PLACE SOME SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS IN DURING THE PM
FOR SOME SCT SNOW SHOWERS OR LIGHT SNOW. THE WAVE PASSES WELL
NORTH OVER S-CNTRL QUEBEC...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED WARM AND COLD
FRONTS BRINGING SOME LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS TO REGION WITH
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF A COATING TO AN INCH OR TWO. WE WENT
WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE NRN TIER THU NIGHT.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NO MAJOR SYSTEMS DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT AREAS OF CHC POPS FOR
MOST. THERE WILL BE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AREAS INTERSPERSED BETWEEN
WEAK FRONTS/SYSTEMS. A RELATIVELY MODEST WARM-UP IS IN STORE DURING
THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS AND 20S ON FRIDAY WILL
BECOME HIGHS FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 50S BY MONDAY WHEN 540
1000-500 MB THICKNESSES WILL LIE JUST NORTH OF OUR ZONES. INDEED...
MONDAY WILL BE THE NICEST DAY OF THE PERIOD...WITH THE GREATEST
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AND LOWEST POPS. OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM THE MINUS
SINGLE DIGITS IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO THE LOWER 30S IN THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY...WILL MODERATE TO LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 30S SUNDAY
NIGHT AS THERE WILL BE NO REAL DIURNAL COOLING TREND GIVEN THE WARM
FRONT LIFTING THROUGH THE AREA.

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT 1-3
HOURS...PASSING KGFL WITHIN THE NEXT FEW MINUTES...KALB BETWEEN
0540Z-0550Z...AND KPOU CLOSER TO 07Z-08Z. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
LIGHT/MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLE WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 KT
WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. IN ITS WAKE...EXPECT
W WINDS THROUGH DAYBREAK AT 10-20 KT AND GUSTS TO 25-35
KT...ALTHOUGH STRONGER GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KALB...ESP
NEARING DAYBREAK. WINDS WILL INCREASE FURTHER AROUND...AND SEVERAL
HOURS AFTER DAYBREAK...POSSIBLY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...FROM THE
W TO NW...INCREASING TO 15-25 KT...WITH GUSTS OF 35-45 KT
POSSIBLE...STRONGEST AT KALB. WINDS WILL BECOME NW AND SUBSIDE
RAPIDLY BETWEEN 23Z/WED AND 03Z/THU...LAST AT KALB.

AS FOR PRECIPITATION...OTHER THAN THE BRIEF RAIN SHOWERS WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE...THE NEXT CHC FOR PRECIP WILL BE POSSIBLE
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING TOWARD DAYBREAK...WITH
BEST CHC AT KALB...WITH ISOLATED/SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLY
CONTINUING UNTIL MIDDAY WED. ANY SNOW SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR VSBYS...AND COULD PRODUCE A DUSTING.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAINLY VFR LEVEL CLOUDS/VSBYS THROUGH 06Z/THU.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT...VFR. NO SIG WX.
THU...MAINLY VFR. SLIGHT CHC -SHSN WITH MVFR POSSIBLE.
THU NIGHT...MVFR. CHC -SHSN AT KALB AND KPOU WITH -SHSN LIKELY AT
KGFL WITH IFR POSSIBLE.
FRI...VFR. NO SIG WX.
SAT...VFR WITH MVFR POSSIBLE. CHC -SHSN.
SUN...VFR. NO SIG WX.

.HYDROLOGY...
NO MAJOR PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH SOME SCATTERED
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WITH LIGHT LIQUID EQUIVALENT AMOUNTS WELL
UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH. THE HIGHEST SNOW TALLIES WILL BE ALONG
THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND THE SOUTHERN
GREEN MOUNTAINS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
OF 1 TO 4 INCHES.

COLD AND DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
A CLIPPER LOW MAY BRING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OR LIGHT SNOW
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM FOR THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEKEND MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL AGAIN.

ICE FORMATION OR THICKENING WILL SLOW DOWN THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A
BRIEF SPELL OF MILDER WEATHER. ICE FORMATION SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS TEMPERATURES FALL BACK WELL BELOW
FREEZING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CTZ001.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ039>043-
047>054-058>061-063-082>084.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ032-033-
038.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR VTZ013>015.

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
AVIATION...KL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ALBANY NY

1203 AM EST WED JAN 18 2012

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
VERY STRONG WINDS JUST OUTSIDE THE FORECAST AREA COULD SCRAPE THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY EARY THHIS MORNING
AND INTO MID MORNING. SO...A HIGH WIND WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED
THERE. THE PRESSURE RISE FALL COUPLET IS TRACKING NORTHEAST ALONG
AND JUST NORTH OF THE U.S. CANADIAN BORDER WHICH IMPLIES THE
STRONGEST WINDS MAY JUST MISS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...BUT CLOSE
ENOUGH WHERE IS WOULD BE BEST TO WARN PEOPLE OF THE POSSIBILITY OF
DAMAGING WINDS JUST IN CASE. OF COURSE THE WIND ADVISORY IS STILL
IN EFFECT FOR OTHER AREAS.

JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES BASED ON CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS.

PREV AFD BELOW...

PREVIOUS NEAR TERM...

EXPECT TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE TEENS OVER THE SRN DACKS...AND 20S
OVER MOST OF THE REST OF THE REGION...EXCEPT FOR THE THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY...AND SRN LITCHFIELD CTY WHERE SOME LOWER 30S ARE POSSIBLE.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER PROFILES INDICATE WIND
ADVISORY GUSTS ARE STILL POSSIBLE INTO THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
IF WE MIX TO 875-900 HPA OR SO. IF WE MIX HIGHER...THEN WE COULD
APPROACH SOME 50 KT GUSTS. OVERALL...NW WIND GUSTS OF 45-55 MPH
ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL ABOUT 20Z. KPOU IS MARGINAL WITH THE GUST
POTENTIAL AROUND 35 KTS OR SO. WE KEPT THAT LOCATION OUT OF THE
WIND ADVISORY. BLUSTERY AND COLD CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH
TEMPS FALLING IN THE 20S AND TEENS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH COLD
ADVECTION CONTINUING WITH H850 TEMPS FALLING TO -15C TO -20C. THE
NW FLOW FAVORS MULTIBANDS OVER CNTRL NY TOMORROW. SOME OF THE
NARROW MULTIBANDS CREEP INTO THE WRN MOHAWK VALLEY...AND ERN
CATSKILLS. A COATING TO AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE. WE
TENDED TO DECREASE THE POPS TO SLIGHT OR LOW CHC VALUES OVER THE
SRN GREENS...NRN TACONICS...AND BERKSHIRES WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER
DRYING OUT /WE ARE LOSING THE MOISTURE HERE/ AND THE MESOSCALE
GUIDANCE SHOWING LESS OF AN UPSLOPE EVENT.

IN THE LATE AFTERNOON...THE UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS OVER KYSR...AND
KRME SHOW THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LOWERING TO 4-5 KFT AGL
SQUELCHING ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW.

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STEADY PRECIPITATION MOVED OFF TO OUR EAST LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THE AREA IS NOW IN A PRECIPITATION LULL...WAITING ON APPROACHING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK
WITH THE SURFACE LOW MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO. LARGE
PRESSURE FALLS ARE OCCURRING JUST TO WEST OF THE LOW PRESSURE
CENTER. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST THEN WEST WITH PASSAGE
OF THE COLD FRONT AND BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY. AT THIS TIME...THERE
IS A LINE OF CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK PRODUCING
VERY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND SOME DAMAGE...REFER TO NWS BUFFALO`S
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT (BUFLSRBUF) FOR DETAILS. EXPECT
THIS CONVECTION TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE STATE AND
ENCOUNTERS COLDER AND MORE STABLE AIR. HAVE ADDRESSED THE THREAT
FOR SHOWERS WITH THE COLD FRONT IN TAFS WITH VICINITY SHOWERS.

IFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES WITH AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IN ITS WAKE. HOWEVER...MVFR
IS EXPECTED WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY.

HAVE A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET MOVING ACROSS AREA SO HAVE ADDED LOW
LEVEL SHEAR TO KGFL AND KPOU WHERE HAS LIGHT SURFACE WINDS.

.HYDROLOGY...
NO MAJOR PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ001.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ039>043-047>054-
058>061-063-082>084.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ032-033-038.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ

906 PM EST THU JAN 19 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SWING
THROUGH OUR AREA LATE TONIGHT. MORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC FOR FRIDAY. OVER THE WEEKEND, LOW PRESSURE WILL
DELIVER UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLING IN FOR SUNDAY. MORE LOW PRESSURE MAY AFFECT OUR
AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THE GFS AND WRF-NMM INITIALIZATION LOOKED PRETTY GOOD OFF OF THE 12Z
SOUNDINGS WITH NEITHER MODEL FAVORED. THE ECMWF AND HRRR VERIFIED
THE BEST WITH THE QPF GEOGRAPHICAL EXTENT TO OUR WEST AT 18Z AND THE
FORMER WAS USED TO FINE TUNE THE WX GRIDS FOR TONIGHT. THE MODELS
TRENDED COLDER AND THUS LESS OF A GEOGRAPHICAL MENTION OF RAIN FOR
TONIGHT.

THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH OF A MODEL CHANGE WITH RESPECT TO FORCING
AND THE LACK OF MOISTURE WITH WHAT UNDER OTHER CIRCUMSTANCES COULD
HAVE BEEN A MORE DYNAMICAL SYSTEM. THE ACTIVE SNOW AREA TO OUR NW IS
IN THE EXIT REGION OF A 160KT JET WHICH IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN
TONIGHT, BUT STILL WILL PASS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR CWA.

THE ISENTROPIC LIFT (AT 280K) AND THETA E ADVT PART OF THIS EVENT IS
FORECAST TO PASS OFFSHORE BY 00Z. MOST OF THEIR WORK IS TO TRY TO
BRING SOME MSTR INTO OUR CWA, BUT THE SOURCE REGION TO OUR SW IS
QUITE DRY. SO WHEN THE EXIT RGN OF THE JET AND THE FCST DEEP LEVEL
QVEC CONVERGENCE ARRIVE, THE WAA PART OF THE PROGRAM IS OVER. FOR
BETTER OR WORSE THIS DISCONTINUITY GOES A LONG WAY TOWARD GENERATING
THE LOW QPF ALL OF THE MODELS ARE FORECASTING.

NEVERTHELESS GIVEN THE LAST COUPLE OF FEATURES, WE INCREASED POPS
FAR NORTH FOR WATER EQUIVALENTS WHICH WILL PROBABLY BE ONLY SEVERAL
HUNDREDTHS. A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR GREATER SNOW FOLLOWED THE .01
QPF OFF THE ECMWF. THE NEXT SLICE DOWN THROUGH THE I95 CORRIDOR
WE SUGGEST A DUSTING POSSIBLE BY MORNING. FARTHER SE, WARMER
ANTECEDENT SURFACE TEMPS AND LIGHTER INTENSITY MIGHT MIX IN SOME
RAIN, BUT REGARDLESS SHOULD RESULT IN NO EXPECTED DUSTINGS.

THE MODELS TRY TO SHOW A POSSIBLE SECOND QPF MAX ALONG THE NJ COAST
(A COUPLE OF HUNDREDTHS MAYBE) LATE. THIS IS RELATED TO ANOTHER QVEC
CONVERGENCE AREA TRYING TO CATCH UP TO THE PRE FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT.
REASON FOR A POP IN THE POPS TOWARD MORNING THERE.

BECAUSE OF THE SW FLOW AND CLOUDS PRECEDING THE COLD FRONT WE
PREFERRED THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER DATA SETS FOR MINS. THE OVERALL
STRENGTH OF THE FCST LLJ IS ABOUT 5-10 KTS LOWER THAN THE 00Z
SOUNDING RUN, SO WE LOWERED LAND BASED GUSTS EAST ABOUT THE SAME AMT.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
A QUIET AND SEASONABLY COLD DAY IS FORECAST FOR FRIDAY. THE SOUNDING
INVERSION NORTHWEST SINKS RATHER QUICKLY SO WE LIMITED THE MENTION
OF FLURRIES IN THE POCONOS TO EARLY. THE FORECAST CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES GET PRETTY HIGH, SO WE ARE NOT EXPECTING MUCH HOME
GROWN CUMULUS CLOUDS. BY THE AFTERNOON WE SHOULD START SEEING THE
CIRRUS CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM. BASED ON THE FORECAST
FULL SUN MACROS, THE SLIGHTLY WARMER GFS MOS WAS PREFERRED FOR
TEMPERATURES. THERE MAY BE SOME WIND GUSTS IN THE MORNING, BUT
OVERALL THE WINDS WILL BE CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGE AND NOT AS
ROBUST AS THE PREVIOUS COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ACTIVE WEATHER WILL START OFF THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS ORGANIZING LOW
PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTHWEST APPROACHES FRIDAY NIGHT AND MOVES OVER THE
REGION DURING SATURDAY. MODEL ANALYSIS AND LOOKING AT FCST SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO DEPICT THIS AS A MIXED PRECIPITATION EVENT WITH AMPLE
MOISTURE MOVING OVER THE AREA AND SUFFICIENT COLD AIR IN PLACE AT
THE SURFACE TO START THE EVENT. MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
LIKELY SEE LIGHT SNOW AT THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS OF SATURDAY. BUT WITH WARM ADVECTION TAKING PLACE
DURING THE COURSE OF SATURDAY, A TRANSITION TO SLEET OR EVEN
FREEZING RAIN AND THEN TO RAIN APPEARS PROBABLE FROM LATE MORNING TO
AFTERNOON FOR OUR SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES. THE TRANSITION TO
WINTRY MIX MAY REACH THE LEHIGH VALLEY, BUT AREAS IN THE POCONOS AND
NORTHWEST NJ LOOK TO RECEIVE PRIMARILY SNOW FROM THIS EVENT, WITH
SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION PROBABLE AT THIS TIME. A WINTER STORM
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE FOR CARBON AND
MONROE COUNTIES IN PA AND SUSSEX COUNTY IN NJ AS ACCUMULATIONS
RANGING FROM 4 TO 7 INCHES ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. THE EURO IS
A BIT SLOWER THAN THE GFS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE
REGION, WITH PRECIPITATION PROGGED TO LAST LONGER INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE GFS WAS FAVORED A BIT WITH THE FASTER ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION WITH THE EVENT, AND ITS ALSO NOTED THAT THE GFS HAS
TRENDED COLDER.

DURING SUNDAY, STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS SOUTHWEST FROM EASTERN
CANADA AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES EAST AND OUT TO SEA.
QUIETER CONDITIONS GENERALLY ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN SUNDAY, ALTHOUGH
THE MODELS HINT AT THE POSSIBILITY OF A COLD AIR DAMMING SITUATION
DEVELOPING. THE ODDS ON THIS HAPPENING AS EARLY AS SUNDAY ARE NOT
GREAT, AND THE SUNDAY POPS WITH THIS FORECAST ARE LOW. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT OUR FORECAST AREA AS EARLY AS
SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE ACTIVE PATTERN. THIS LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES DURING SUNDAY AND TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD TO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. ITS ASSOCIATED
FRONTS WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES AND THERMAL FIELDS GENERALLY ARE MILD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
RAIN WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM, ALTHOUGH COLD AIR THANKS TO
THE RECEDING HIGH TO THE NORTHEAST MAY GENERATE A PERIOD OF SNOW
CHANGING TO FREEZING RAIN FOR A WHILE NORTH. THE EURO AGAIN IS
SLOWER THAN THE GFS WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM THROUGH THE
EASTERN STATES. HOWEVER, AT THIS TIME, IT APPEARS THAT THIS SYSTEM
PUSHES EAST OF OUR AREA OVERNIGHT MONDAY. AFTER THAT, THE MODELS ARE
QUITE DIVERGENT (EVEN WITHIN THEMSELVES FROM RUN TO RUN).

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THE LATEST 18Z TAFS KEEP A VFR FORECAST GOING, BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOWEST AT KABE.

A RAPID INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON. AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE, THERE WILL BE A
WINDOW FOR SOME BREEZINESS AND GUSTS FOR AROUND 15 KT WERE
MAINTAINED.

FOR TONIGHT, SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ASSOCIATED WITH AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL WORK THEIR WAY INTO THE TERMINALS.
GREATEST CHANCE FOR MVFR AND MAYBE EVEN BRIEFLY VSBY RELATED IFR
RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED AT LOCAL AIRPORTS NORTH OF A KRDG-KABE-
KTTN LINE WHERE FCST MOISTURE IS DEEPEST. SO IF WE ARE TOO
OPTIMISTIC ABOUT OUR TERMINALS, KABE IS MOST VULNERABLE. CIGS ARE
FORECAST TO LOWER, BUT REMAIN VFR.

THE 18Z NAM CAME IN WITH AN AREA OF 40 KT SOUTHWEST WINDS AT H925
THAT MOVES OVER EACH OF THE TAF SITES FROM PNE SOUTH. IT LOOKS
LIKE IT SPENDS 3 TO 4 HOURS OVER EACH SITE STARTING AT AROUND 01Z
OVER THE DELAWARE VALLEY SITES AND 02Z OR 03Z OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN SITES. A 23Z AIRCRAFT SOUNDING FROM IAD SHOWED
H925 SOUTHWEST WINDS THERE HAD INCREASED TO BETWEEN 30 AND 35 KT,
AND THAT WAS CONSISTENT WITH THE NAM`S FORECAST STRENGTHENING OF
THE H925 FLOW. WE THEREFORE PUT IN A FOUR-HOUR PERIOD OF LLWS AT
THE APPROPRIATE SITES OVER THE APPROPRIATE TIME.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE TERMINALS FROM AROUND 09Z TO 11Z FROM
WEST TO EAST AND END ANY SNOW CHANCES. THE GRADIENT BEHIND THE
FRONT IS NOT THAT STRONG AND GUSTS WERE ONLY INCLUDED AT OUR TWO
WINDIEST AIRPORTS, KPHL AND KACY.

VFR CONDITIONS WITH NO CIGS ARE THEN FORECAST TO RETURN DURING
THE DAYLIGHT MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES AND MOVES OVER THE REGION FROM FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY, BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR MIXED WINTRY
PRECIPITATION TO THE FORECAST AREA. LOWER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE
SYSTEM EXITS THE REGION, LOWER CONDITIONS MAY EXTEND INTO EARLY
SUNDAY. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT MAY AFFECT THE AREA,
BRINGING RAIN ALONG WITH LOWERED CEILING AND VISIBILITY VALUES, IS
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY NIGHT.

.MARINE...
THE INCREASING SW FLOW WAS BRINGING SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS THIS
EVENING. THE LOW LEVEL JET OF AROUND 40 KT LIKELY WILL CAUSE
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO GALE FORCE INTO THE EARLY PRE-DAWN HOURS OVER
PARTS OF DELAWARE BAY AND OUR SOUTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS. WE EXPECT
THIS TO LAST FOR LESS THAN SIX HOURS, AND WE WILL ISSUE A MWS AND
ADDRESS IT IN THE CWF AND THE MWW.

THERE WILL BE A LULL LATE AS THE COLD FRONT NEARS, BUT THEN COULD BE
A COUPLE OF HOUR WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR MORE SCA CONDITIONS IN
THE FRESH COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY
MORNING. AS THE NEXT HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM THEN NEARS, BOTH WINDS AND
SEAS SHOULD DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA BY THE
AFTERNOON.

WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER THE AREA SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT, REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR SEAS IS EXPECTED,
THANKS TO A PERSISTENT EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW. THE ELEVATED SEAS IN
THE 5 TO 6 FOOT RANGE ON OUR WATERS ARE ANTICIPATED SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY, AND THE ELEVATED SEAS MAY EXTEND INTO MONDAY WITH
THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM. WINDS AND GUSTS MAY
OCCASIONALLY REACH ADVISORY LEVELS DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR PAZ054-055.
NJ...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR NJZ001.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ430-431-
450>455.

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLINE
NEAR TERM...GIGI
SHORT TERM...GIGI
LONG TERM...DELISI/KLINE
AVIATION...DELISI/GIGI/KLINE
MARINE...DELISI/GIGI/KLINE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ

635 PM EST THU JAN 19 2012

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THE LATEST 18Z TAFS KEEP A VFR FORECAST GOING, BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOWEST AT KABE.

VFR CONDITIONS WITH NO CIGS ARE THEN FORECAST TO RETURN DURING
THE DAYLIGHT MORNING.

.MARINE...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED INTO FRIDAY MORNING FOR ALL
MARINE AREAS. THE INCREASING SW FLOW SHOULD BRING SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS TONIGHT. EVEN THOUGH THE WINDS ARE SOUTHWEST, IN THIS
INSTANCE IT STILL WILL BE COLDER AIR PASSING OVER WARMER WATER.

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLINE
NEAR TERM...GIGI
SHORT TERM...GIGI
LONG TERM...DELISI/KLINE
AVIATION...DELISI/GIGI/KLINE
MARINE...DELISI/GIGI/KLINE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ

935 AM EST WED JAN 18 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BUILD EAST FOR TODAY AND
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE ON
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWING FOR
FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO
PASS OVER OR NEAR OUR REGION ON SATURDAY. A WEAK AREA LOW PRESSURE
OR A FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE WEST MAY ARRIVE ON MONDAY OR MONDAY
NIGHT.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO BIG CHANGES WITH THE UPDATE, ADJUSTED SKY COVER A BIT UPWARD
WEST AND REPOSITIONED THE CHANCE OF MRNG FLURRIES A BIT FTHR TO
THE SW BASED ON UPSTREAM RADARS. TEMP FCSTS LOOK ON TRACK.

BEHIND THE FRONT...MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION IN THE
COLD AIR ADVECTION COULD LINGER IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS
MORNING. IN ADDITION...IT IS POSSIBLE WITH THE FLOW THIS MORNING
THAT FLURRIES OR EVEN SNOW SHOWERS FROM LAKE ERIE THEN ONTARIO COULD
AFFECT THE HIGHER TERRAIN BEFORE THE INVERSION LOWERS FARTHER.

ELSEWHERE...THE NEW AIRMASS IS DRY...AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
THAT MOST PLACES COULD SEE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES REACHED. RIGHT
NOW...THE AIRMASS LOOKS DRY ENOUGH FOR MOSTLY SUNNY TO WORK SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. NORTH AND WEST...THERE COULD BE A
PERIOD OF BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS...AND PARTLY SUNNY COULD WORK
BETTER THERE.

THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD BE THIS MORNING WITH THE TIGHTEST
GRADIENT AND BEST MIXING IN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION. WHILE WINDS
DROP OFF SOME THIS AFTERNOON...MOST PLACES PROBABLY SEE GUSTS FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY. FOR THE THE MOST PART...HIGHS WERE BASED ON THE
MOS BLEND. AFTER TEMPERATURES DROP THIS MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...THEY SHOULD RISE IN SPITE OF GOOD COLD AIR
ADVECTION...THEN START FALLING OFF LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE
EXCEPTION HERE COULD BE THE SOUTHERN POCONOS AND NORTHWEST NEW
JERSEY...WHERE MOS SHOULD TEMPERATURES FALLING SLOWLY MOST OF THE
DAY.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
THE LAST OF THE GRADIENT EXITS IN THE EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA. WINDS SHOULD DROP OFF IN PROTECTED AREAS
QUICKLY ENOUGH THIS EVENING TO PROMOTE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
(HELPS THAT THE AIR IS DRY AS WELL. HIGH CLOUDINESS AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SHORT WAVE IN THE FAST NORTHERN FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TIME FOR COLDER LOCATIONS TO DROP A FEW
DEGREES BELOW THE COLDEST MOS NUMBERS FOR LOWS. ELSEWHERE...A
BLEND OF MOS NUMBERS WAS USED FOR LOWS.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED OVER OUR REGION ON
THURSDAY MORNING AND IT SHOULD DRIFT OFF THE COAST DURING THE
COURSE OF THE DAY. HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS AHEAD OF OUR NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD OUR REGION DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO PASS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
STATES ON THURSDAY NIGHT. ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SHOULD PASS
THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA AT THAT TIME, AS WELL. THERE WILL NOT BE
A GREAT DEAL OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM. HOWEVER, SNOW
SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE IN MUCH OF OUR REGION. THE
BOUNDARY LAYER MAY BE A LITTLE TOO WARM TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW IN OUR
FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. NEVERTHELESS, LITTLE OR NO SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS ANTICIPATED EXCEPT PERHAPS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES WHERE A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO FOLLOW FOR FRIDAY, WHICH
SHOULD BE THE COLDEST OF THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HIGHS ARE FORECAST
TO BE MAINLY IN THE 30S, WITH READINGS REMAINING IN THE 20S IN THE
ELEVATED TERRAIN.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON
FRIDAY NIGHT AND IT SHOULD PASS OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR
FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO OUR REGION LATE ON FRIDAY NIGHT.
INITIALLY, TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT SHOULD BE COLD
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW IN ALL BUT OUR FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES.
HOWEVER, WITH WARM ADVECTION TAKING PLACE DURING THE COURSE OF THE
DAY, THE SNOW SHOULD CHANGE TO SLEET, THEN RAIN FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH WITH A WINTRY MIX POSSIBLY HOLDING THROUGH THE ENTIRE EVENT
IN THE LEHIGH VALLEY, THE POCONOS AND NORTHWESTERN NEW JERSEY.

THE 0000 UTC GFS AND THE 0000 UTC ECMWF DIVERGE A BIT WITH THEIR
SOLUTIONS BEYOND SATURDAY. FOR NOW, WE WILL INDICATE A BIT OF
PRECIPITATION LINGERING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. WE WILL CARRY A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY
IN THE FORECAST.

A WEAK SYSTEM FROM THE WEST MAY AFFECT OUR REGION ON MONDAY OR
MONDAY NIGHT, SO WE WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THOSE
TWO PERIODS.

IT DOES CONTINUE TO APPEAR AS THOUGH A WARMING TREND WILL TAKE
PLACE FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE NEW WEEK.

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CONDITIONS ARE VFR THIS MORNING ACROSS THE REGION.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD PEAK THIS MORNING...WITH GUSTS AT
JUST ABOUT ALL TERMINALS REACHING 28 TO 32 KNOTS. AS THE GRADIENT
EASES A BIT THIS AFTERNOON...THE GUST POTENTIAL WILL DROP
BACK...AND AFTER 1700 UTC MOST TERMINAL LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE GUSTS
CLOSER TO 25 KNOTS. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE REACHED IN THE NEW AIRMASS...SO VFR CEILINGS
ARE ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE AT KRDG AND KABE. ELSEWHERE...THE
STRATOCUMULUS COVER IS EXPECTED TO BE SCATTERED.

AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THE
GUSTINESS SHOULD END BETWEEN 2100 AND 2300 UTC. ANY CUMULUS SHOULD
BE RELEGATED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND ALL TERMINALS SHOULD BE
CLEAR BY 2300 UTC. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH MAINLY
HIGH CLOUDINESS LATER TONIGHT...ALONG WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, EVEN
THOUGH A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST MAY BRING SCATTERED LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ON THURSDAY NIGHT.

LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST MAY BRING A WINTRY
MIX OF PRECIPITATION TO OUR REGION FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY EVENING. LOW CEILING AND VISIBILITY VALUES ARE
ANTICIPATED. THE LOW CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST PART OF
SUNDAY DEPENDING UPON HOW QUICKLY THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT TO SEA.

.MARINE...
WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL GUST TO GALE FORCE ACROSS ALL
WATERS. THE BEST GRADIENT AND MIXING POTENTIAL WILL LAST UNTIL
ABOUT 1500 UTC. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL SHOWS THE BEST GUSTS BETWEEN
1000 UTC AND 1400 UTC...AND THIS MAKES SENSE BASED ON WHAT IS
OCCURRING TO THE WEST OVER LAND. FOR NOW...THE GALE WARNING ENDING
TIME WILL NOT BE CHANGED BASED ON THE ABOVE...BUT THE ENDING TIME
COULD BE WHITTLED AWAY LATER THIS MORNING IF WINDS DROP OFF FAST
ENOUGH.

THE GRADIENT PROBABLY SUPPORT SMALL CRAFT WINDS AFTER 1800 UTC
THROUGH ABOUT 2200 UTC...AS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW DECENT GUST
POTENTIAL IN THE WEAKENING COLD AIR ADVECTION. SEAS RESPONDED TO
THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST FETCH OVER THE OCEAN WATERS. IT COULD TAKE THE
BETTER PART OF THE DAY TO COME DOWN BACK BELOW 5 FEET AS THE SWELL
SORTS ITSELF OUT.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS DURING THE
EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE GRADIENT
SHOULD RELAX ENOUGH SO THAT WINDS COULD DROP BELOW 10 KNOTS TOWARD
DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE ON THURSDAY
NIGHT. AS A RESULT, WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE FROM
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST SHOULD PASS OVER OR
NEAR OUR REGION ON SATURDAY. THE SYSTEM SHOULD NOT BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 KNOTS. HOWEVER, A
PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW MAY CAUSE
WAVE HEIGHTS TO BUILD TO 5 TO 6 FEET OVER THE WEEKEND ON OUR OCEAN
WATERS.

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ430-431-
450>455.

$$
SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...GIGI/HAYES
SHORT TERM...HAYES
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...IOVINO/HAYES
MARINE...IOVINO/HAYES

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ

708 AM EST WED JAN 18 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT PASSED THROUGH OUR REGION DURING THE NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WEST WILL FOLLOW FOR TODAY AND THURSDAY. A
COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE ON THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWING FOR FRIDAY. LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER
OR NEAR OUR REGION ON SATURDAY. A WEAK AREA LOW PRESSURE OR A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE WEST MAY ARRIVE ON MONDAY OR MONDAY
NIGHT.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM FOR TODAY WILL BE THE WIND THIS
MORNING.

THE WIND ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. THE BEST PRESSURE
GRADIENT HAS PASSED...AND IT SHOULD SLOWLY DROP INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. AMDAR SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW 40 KNOT WINDS AT 4000
FEET...AND THIS PROBABLY RESULTS IN GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS THIS MORNING
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

ELSEWHERE...IT DOES NOT APPEAR AS THOUGH THE TRANSFER WILL BE AS
EFFICIENT IN THE FRONTAL ZONE...EVEN THOUGH AMDAR SOUNDINGS SHOW
WINDS NEAR 50 KNOTS AT ABOUT 3000 FEET. WINDS ARE PEAKING NEAR 35
KNOTS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA BEHIND THE FRONT...AND
THIS IS DO IT AS FAR AS GUSTS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. AS
OF NOW...A WIND ADVISORY IS NOT BEING CONSIDERED.

THE MAIN AREA OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS SHOULD BE SHUNTED EAST
AS A STRONG SHORT WAVE CLEARS THE MID LEVELS THIS MORNING. BEHIND
THE FRONT...MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION IN THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION COULD LINGER IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS MORNING. IN
ADDITION...IT IS POSSIBLE WITH THE FLOW THIS MORNING THAT FLURRIES
OR EVEN SNOW SHOWERS FROM LAKE ERIE COULD AFFECT THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TIME FOR COLDER LOCATIONS TO DROP A FEW
DEGREES BELOW THE COLDEST MOS NUMBERS FOR LOWS. ELSEWHERE...A
BLEND OF MOS NUMBERS WAS USED FOR LOWS.

A WEAK SYSTEM FROM THE WEST MAY AFFECT OUR REGION ON MONDAY OR
MONDAY NIGHT, SO WE WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THOSE
TWO PERIODS.

IT DOES CONTINUE TO APPEAR AS THOUGH A WARMING TREND WILL TAKE
PLACE FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE NEW WEEK.

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CONDITIONS ARE VFR EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE REGION. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE AREA AFTER 0900 UTC. AS THE FRONT CROSSED
WESTERN AND CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...WINDS GUSTED TO 40 KNOTS.
HOWEVER...AS THE FRONT HAS MOVED EAST....AND NOW ENCOUNTERING
STRATIFIED AIR AHEAD OF IT...THE WIND GUSTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
QUITE AS STRONG WHEN THE FRONT CROSSES THE TERMINAL LOCATIONS.
THERE IS NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONT...AND
VFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE FOR A TIME THROUGH 1200 UTC...MAINLY AT
KABE AND KRDG.

OUTLOOK...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, EVEN
THOUGH A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST MAY BRING SCATTERED LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ON THURSDAY NIGHT.

.MARINE...
WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT REACHED THE UPPER END OF THE SMALL
CRAFT RANGE ACROSS THE LOWER DELAWARE BAY AND SOUTHERN OCEAN
WATERS. THE DEPTH OF THE MIXED LAYER WAS FAIRLY HIGH FOR A WARM
AIR ADVECTION EVENT...BUT THIS WILL CHANGE WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT.

WINDS WITH AND JUST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL GUST TO GALE FORCE
ACROSS ALL WATERS. THE BEST GRADIENT AND MIXING POTENTIAL WILL
LAST UNTIL ABOUT 1500 UTC. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL SHOWS THE BEST
GUSTS BETWEEN 1000 UTC AND 1400 UTC...AND THIS MAKES SENSE BASED
ON WHAT IS OCCURRING TO THE WEST OVER LAND. FOR NOW...THE GALE
WARNING ENDING TIME WILL NOT BE CHANGED BASED ON THE ABOVE...BUT
THE ENDING TIME COULD BE WHITTLED AWAY LATER THIS MORNING IF WINDS
DROP OFF FAST ENOUGH.

A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE ON THURSDAY
NIGHT. AS A RESULT, WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE FROM
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ430-431-
450>455.

SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...HAYES
SHORT TERM...HAYES
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...IOVINO/HAYES
MARINE...IOVINO/HAYES

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ

344 AM EST WED JAN 18 2012

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM FOR TODAY WILL BE THE WIND THIS
MORNING.

A STRONG COLD FRONT IS CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. AMDAR SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING 50 KNOTS NEAR THE TOP OF THE
INVERSION NEAR AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. BASED ON WHAT HAS
OCCURRED ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA WITH THE
FRONT...TOP GUSTS OF 40 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE BEFORE DAWN ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

KMPO REPORTED GUSTS TO 42 KNOTS AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT.
SINCE THERE IS POTENTIAL...AND THE OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING SOME
OF THE POTENTIAL REACHING THE GROUND...A WIND ADVISORY WAS ISSUED
EARLIER FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. IT IS SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE AT 1200
UTC...AND ITS DISPOSITION WILL BE MONITORED AS THE EXPIRATION TIME
APPROACHES.

THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TIME FOR COLDER LOCATIONS TO DROP A FEW
DEGREES BELOW THE COLDEST MOS NUMBERS FOR LOWS. ELSEWHERE...A
BLEND OF MOS NUMBERS WAS USED FOR LOWS.

A WEAK SYSTEM FROM THE WEST MAY AFFECT OUR REGION ON MONDAY OR
MONDAY NIGHT, SO WE WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THOSE
TWO PERIODS.

IT DOES CONTINUE TO APPEAR AS THOUGH A WARMING TREND WILL TAKE
PLACE FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE NEW WEEK.

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

OUTLOOK...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, EVEN
THOUGH A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST MAY BRING SCATTERED LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ON THURSDAY NIGHT.

A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE ON THURSDAY
NIGHT. AS A RESULT, WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE FROM
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR PAZ054-055.
NJ...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NJZ001.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ430-431-
450>455.

SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...HAYES
SHORT TERM...HAYES
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...IOVINO/HAYES
MARINE...IOVINO/HAYES

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS COLUMBIA SC

439 PM EST WED JAN 18 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT WILL MOVE OFF THE
COAST THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND
STALL.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SURFACE RIDGE SHOULD BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. RUC MODEL
IS SHOWING A VORT MAX THAT MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA 05Z-06Z.
THIS MAY BRING SOME SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO THE REGION BUT
SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR AGAIN BY 08Z. SO STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING BEFORE DAYBREAK THURSDAY. USED RADIATIVE COOLING LOW
TEMPERATURE RADIATIVE SCHEME WHICH GAVE CAE 29 AND AGS 28. SO
LOWERED LOW TEMPERATURES ONE DEGREE.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE DRY AIR MASS SHOULD REMAIN IN CONTROL THURSDAY. THE NAM AND GFS
SHOW A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE FRONT IN
THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY. CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AND
WARM ADVECTION SHOULD RESULT IN CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS FRIDAY. THE
MODELS KEEP THE MOISTURE SHALLOW AND LIFT WEAK SO THE RAIN CHANCE
APPEARS LOW. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CONFIDENCE IS LOW DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE GFS ENSEMBLES
SHOW HIGH SPREAD. THE OPERATIONAL GFS DISPLAYS A COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY WITH
THE FRONT IN THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT APPEARS TO LINGER
SUNDAY WITH DEEPER MOISTURE SHIFTING NORTHEASTWARD. ANOTHER FRONT
APPEARS TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH BRIEF
DRYING MONDAY...AND YET ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHING WEDNESDAY.
TIMING UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH BECAUSE OF THE FAST LOW AMPLITUDE
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW DURING MUCH OF THE PERIOD. LEANED TOWARD THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEANS AND CONTINUED THE FORECAST OF CHANCE POPS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THE LOW AMPLITUDE FLOW SHOULD HELP BRING ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
WITH THE INFLUX OF DRIER AIR...NO SIGNIFICANT FOG IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT. NORTHWEST TO NORTHEAST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT...THEN SHIFT SOUTHEAST
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CIG/VSBY ARE POSSIBLE LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS A COLD AFFECTS THE AREA.

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...07
NEAR TERM...07
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTHERN INDIANA

710 PM EST THU JAN 19 2012

.AVIATION /00 UTC TAFS/...
PRIMARY FOCUS ON RAPIDLY DETERIORATION OF CIGS/VSBY MIDDAY WITH
ONSET OF SIG SNOWFALL. IN MEANTIME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS SHOULD SUCCUMB
TO XTRMLY DRY UPSTREAM AIR ACRS WI...WHERE SFC DPS ARE IN NEG TEENS
F RANGE. DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT TO LIMIT ANY SHSN TO VERY LIGHT MULTI
BANDS FOR THIS EVENING. NEXT STORM SYSTEM ACRS INTMTN REGN TO
ADVANCE RAPIDLY OVERNIGHT AND DRIVE INTENSE MIDLVL
DEFORMATION/UPGLIDE ACRS NRN IN. ONCE TOP/DOWN SATURATION IS
COMPLETE EXPECT A PROLONGED PD OF IFR TEMPO LIFR MET CONDS AT BOTH
SITES WITH STRONG UVM COINCIDENT WITH DEEP /ABOUT 4KFT/ SATURATED
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE NOTED PER LATEST NAM BUFKIT.

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE MAIN
CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED
FOR LATE MORNING FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT FOR APPROXIMATELY
NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

ACCUMULATING LIGHT SNOW THIS AFTERNOON HAS SHIFTED WELL SOUTH OF
ROUTE 30 LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AS AXIS OF LOW
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS PUSHES SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. FURTHER TO
THE NORTH...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN INCREASING IN
INTENSITY WITH FAIRLY STRONG 850 HPA/LAKE DELTA TEMPS ON THE ORDER
OF 20 TO 23 DEGREES. RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A NEARLY ISOTHERMAL LAYER
FROM 850 TO 700 HPA WHICH IS LIMITING DEPTH OF THIS LAKE GENERATED
INSTABILITY WITH LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM HEIGHTS ON THE ORDER OF
ABOUT 5K FT. ANOTHER NEGATIVE FACTOR POINTING AGAINST SIGNIFICANT
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IS MUCH DRIER MID LEVEL AIR THAT WAS
WORKED INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION BEHIND THE SYSTEM WHICH
BROUGHT THE ACCUMULATING SNOW TODAY. THIS MARGINAL LAKE EFFECT SETUP
WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT...AND A
FEW LOCATIONS MAY PICK UP A HALF INCH TO AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION BEFORE INVERSION HEIGHTS CRASH MORE SUBSTANTIALLY
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AREAS AWAY FROM LAKE EFFECT
CLOUDS/PRECIP SHOULD CLEAR THIS EVENING. A WEAKENING GRADIENT WITH
SFC RIDGE AXIS BUILDING IN COMBINED WITH THIS CLEARING SHOULD
ALLOW FOR VERY COLD TEMPS TONIGHT INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
ZERO. SOME INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT THAT
MAY LEVEL OUT TEMPERATURES AFTER 09Z.

ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO WHAT WILL BE A VERY FAST MOVING UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM THAT IS APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST AT THIS
TIME. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BACK SOUTHWESTERLY ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF
THIS TROUGH WHICH WILL SET UP A PERIOD OF INTENSE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING OVER THE SHALLOW RETREATING ARCTIC
AIR MASS. STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ALSO TO DEVELOP IN THE
850/700 LAYER AS THIS LOW LEVEL FLOW RAMPS UP. 12Z NAM REMAINS A
SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND FURTHER NORTH OUTLIER IN REGARDS TO THIS
SYSTEM...WITH 09Z SREF GENERALLY LENDING SUPPORT TO THE MORE RUN TO
RUN CONSISTENT GFS/ECMWF. GENERALLY UTILIZED A PREDOMINATELY
SREF/GFS/ECMWF BLEND FOR THIS FORECAST WITH A MUCH SMALLER
WEIGHTING TOWARD NAM. PERIOD OF MOST INTENSE SNOWFALL APPEARS TO
BE SHAPING UP IN THE 21Z-03Z TIMEFRAME WITH BEST COLOCATION OF
STRONGER SYNOPTIC LIFT WITH FAVORABLE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE.
MODEL QPF FROM 12Z SUITE OF MODELS STILL TEND TO SUPPORT MAINLY
HIGH END ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WHEN CONSIDERING
EXPECTED SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS ON THE ORDER OF 15:1 ACROSS THE
NORTH.

CONCERN WITH THESE TYPE OF INTENSE LOW/MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONES IS
FOR AREAS OF ENHANCED BANDING WHICH COULD PUSH SOME AREAS INTO LOW
END WARNING ACCUMULATIONS. 12Z GFS MODEL CROSS SECTIONS STILL
INDICATE RELATIVELY HIGH STATIC STABILITY ATOP THIS LOW LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS FORCING WHICH MAY TEND TO DISCOURAGE SMALLER SCALE
INTENSE BANDING...AND A BROADER RESPONSE IN UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION
FIELDS. SYSTEM ALSO WILL BE VERY PROGRESSIVE WITH SOME INDICATIONS
OF ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY FROM WEST TO EAST INTO
NORTHEAST INDIANA BY EVENING. TAKING THE ABOVE FACTORS INTO
CONSIDERATION HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH A HIGH END WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 7 INCHES NORTHERN TWO
THIRDS...WITH THE HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED FAR NORTHERN
INDIANA/SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. WINDS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AN OVERLY
HUGE CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT A BRIEF PERIOD IN THE 21Z-03Z
TIMEFRAME OF 1 TO 2 INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES APPEARS TO BE A
GOOD POSSIBILITY. IN TRENDING MORE TOWARD GFS...HAVE CONFINED MIXED
PRECIP MENTION TO A CHANCE OF SLEET ACROSS THE SOUTH BUT THIS WILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED IN FUTURE FORECASTS ONCE CONFIDENCE IN LOW LEVEL
THERMAL FIELDS INCREASES. SNOW WILL BEGIN TO WANE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH INDICATIONS OF FAR SOUTHEAST GETTING INTO SOME ENHANCED
SNOWFALL AS A PIECE OF EASTERN PACIFIC SHORT WAVE DIGS MORE
AGGRESSIVELY INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SIG PATTERN ADJUSTMENT TO OCCUR IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS REX BLOCK
RIDGING SHIFTS WEST OVER ALASKA...WITH SUBSTANTIAL UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING EXPECTED THERE BY THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
SWITCH BACK TO FAST WESTERLY GENERALLY MILD FLOW...WITH EMBEDDED
FAST MOVING IMPULSES PROVIDING PERIODIC CHANCES FOR RAIN/SNOW. THIS
WILL OCCUR AFTER THE ADVECTION OF A POTENT MID LATITUDE CYCLONE
EARLY NEXT WEEK...A SYSTEM WHICH COULD BRING A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF
RAIN/WIND/AND EVEN THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. ECMWF/GFS/AND GEFS SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO REMAIN
NEARLY PHASED PER HEIGHT SOLUTIONS IN THE PERIOD...WITH INCREASED
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE PERIOD.

SAT-MON...FRIDAY SYSTEM WILL BE IN THE PROCESSES OF EXITING THE
REGION WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR LINGERING LIGHT SNOW FAR SE SAT AM.
WEAK SUBSIDENT REGIME WITH SFC RIDGING WILL SUPPORT GRADUAL EROSION
OF LINGERING LOW CLOUDS...WITH WINDS VEERING SE THROUGH THE SAT
PERIOD. MEANWHILE...A SIG MID LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG INTO
THE SW CONUS AND BEGIN TO EJECT TOWARD THE REGION. SYSTEM INFLUENCE
TO THE LOCAL AREA WILL BEGIN ON SUNDAY...WITH REFLECTED LL SOUTHERLY
FLOW INCREASING THROUGH THE SUNDAY DAY PERIOD. LINGERING BAROCLINIC
ZONE IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL INTERACT WITH THE
EJECTING MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO SUPPORT ROBUST SFC PRESSURE
FALLS...SUPPORTING RAPID SFC CYCLOGENESIS. THIS WILL ALLOW SIG LL
THETA-E ADV TO ENSUE SUNDAY IN THE REGION WITH SIG SFC LAYER
DEWPOINT RISES INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. STAUNCH LL FLOW WITH A 60 TO 70
KNOT LLJ PROGGED IN THE ECMWF...WILL BE MORE THAN ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
DEEP LAYER THETA-E RISES. SNOWPACK IN PLACE WILL LIKELY SUPPORT A
SATURATED BL WITH DRIZZLE AND FOG EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...LIKELY PERSISTING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
ECMWF H7-H3 LAYER ANALYSIS REVEALS A RATHER IMPRESSIVE EML WITH
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES GIVEN STRONG LOW CENTERED WAA. H85
THETA-E APPROACHES 325K BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH SW INDICES
NEGATIVE...INDICATING A GOOD ENVIRONMENT FOR ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS.
HAVE INTRODUCED A LOW CHANCE THUNDER AT THIS POINT. ALBEIT
SMALL...THERE IS A CONCERN FOR SEVERE WEATHER GIVEN INDICATED H5
JETLET IN EXCESS OF 90 KNOTS...WHICH WOULD BE CAPABLE QLCS JET
DRIVEN CELLS. PERHAPS THE BIGGEST CONCERN ATTM IS FOR INCREASED
FLOODING CONCERNS GIVEN FULL SNOWPACK MELT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN. WILL HIGHLIGHT IN AN ESF. NEGATIVE TROUGH TILT INDICATED
IN FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST A NW TRACK ADJUSTMENT PER THE SFC
LOW...WITH A SLOWER SYSTEM ARRIVAL POSSIBLE...IN ADDITION TO WARMER
THERMAL FIELDS. HENCE DROPPED THE SNOW MENTION SUN NIGHT/TRIMMED
MONDAY SNOW MENTION/AND ADJUSTED TEMPS UP. CAA WILL DOMINATE MONDAY
WITH FALLING TEMPS IN THE DAYTIME PERIOD LIKELY. LINGERING LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY NW.

TUE-THUR...FAST WNW PAC ORIGIN FLOW IS EXPECTED INTO THE REGION WITH
ROCKIES ENHANCED IMPULSES EXPECTED. STRONGEST PROGGED IMPULSE
REMAINS IN THE WED PERIOD AND HAVE RETAINED POPS THEN...OPTING TO
KEEP THE RAIN/SNOW WORDING GIVEN WARM THERMAL FIELDS.
OTHERWISE...ADJUSTED TEMPS UP SOME...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS LIKELY
ONCE AGAIN.

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ FRIDAY TO 7
AM EST /6 AM CST/ SATURDAY FOR INZ003>009-012-014-016>018.

MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO 7 AM EST SATURDAY
FOR MIZ077>081.

OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO 7 AM EST SATURDAY
FOR OHZ001-002-004-005-015-016.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...MURPHY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

1056 AM MST WED JAN 18 2012

.UPDATE...
1007 AM MST WED JAN 18 2012

DUE TO THE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER...HAVE LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR TODAY...KEEPING TEMPERATURES LOWER IN THE SNOW-COVERED AREAS.
HAVE ALSO LOWERED WIND SPEEDS AS THE CLOUDS SHOULD MAKE MIXING
MORE DIFFICULT.

CJS
&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 AM MST WED JAN 18 2012

04Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED BROAD TROUGHING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH RUC ANALYSIS INDICATING A 160KT JET STREAK
JUST OFF OF THE PAC NW COAST. 00Z RAOBS INDICATED A COLD...DRY AND
FOR THE MOST PART STABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION.
SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATED A MUCH DEEPER COLD AIR MASS NOW IN PLACE
OVER THE AREA AS TEMPS ALOFT FELL IN EXCESS OF 15C AROUND H825 AT
DDC AND FELL 13C AT LBF AT H7. AT THE SFC...RIDGE WAS CENTERED OVER
SOUTHEAST KANSAS WITH A TROUGH OVER EASTERN WYOMING.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WILL MAINLY BE
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AND WIND SPEEDS TODAY.

TODAY-TONIGHT...LEE TROUGH TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN THROUGH
THE DAY AS WEAK RIDGING ALOFT OCCURS OVER THE AREA. WITH VERY STABLE
CONDITIONS AND LITTLE FORCING FOR ASCENT...EXPECT LITTLE MORE THAN
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. OVERNIGHT STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO BACK INTO THE CWA BY 09Z. LOOKS LIKE A
PERIOD OF LOW STRATUS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO THE
AREA. IF THE BOUNDARY LAYER WAS COMPLETELY SATURATED...COULD SEE A
THREAT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE FOLLOWED BY FLURRIES
AS COLD AIR DEEPENS...BUT GIVEN MOISTURE PROFILES WHERE THE FRONT
WILL ORIGINATE...AM DOUBTFUL THAT THINGS WOULD FULLY SATURATE. WILL
HAVE TO EXAMINE THE LATEST ENSEMBLE DATA BEFORE MAKING A FINAL
CALL...BUT CURRENT THINKING IS PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION
AT THIS TIME.

GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DECREASE A BIT DURING THE MORNING
HOURS...BUT WILL REDEVELOP DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
HOURS. VERY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED ALOFT TODAY...BUT WITH
SFC FLOW BEING ABOUT 70 DEGREES DIFFERENT THAN WINDS ALOFT...WEAK
INVERSION EXPECTED TO KEEP DEEP MIXING AND SNOW COVER IN SOME AREAS
WILL INHIBIT MIXING THESE WINDS DOWN...BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE
EYE ON THINGS DURING PEAK HEATING. WITH WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 30
MPH AND HUMIDITIES FALLING TO AROUND 20 PERCENT FIRE DANGER WILL BE
HIGHER THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS...BUT WITH WEAK MOISTURE ADVECTION AND
SNOW MELT IN SOME AREAS DO NOT EXPECT LOW HUMIDITIES TO BECOME
WIDESPREAD.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...INITIAL CONCERN WILL FOR THURSDAY WILL BE HOW
FAR WEST BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MOVES AND HOW STRONG TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT ACROSS IT WILL BE. BY THURSDAY MORNING...COLD AIR WILL
DEEPEN ENOUGH THAT IF THERE IS ANY PRECIPITATION THREAT IT WOULD BE
FLURRIES...BUT RIGHT NOW THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR A STRATUS
DECK TO DEVELOP AS FRONT PASSES WITH LITTLE THREAT OF MEANINGFUL
PRECIPITATION. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS FRONT
RETREATS ACROSS THE AREA AND WHILE A FEW STATIC STABILITY PROFILES
SUGGEST ATMOSPHERE WILL DESTABILIZE SOME IN THIS PERIOD...WITH
EXPECTED FLOW PATTERN AM DOUBTFUL THAT ANY MEANINGFUL MOISTURE
RETURN WOULD OCCUR TO ALLOW ANY INSTABILITY TO BE REALIZED.
POTENTIAL VORTICITY FIELDS SUGGEST A COMPACT SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. WITH MID LEVELS LESS
STABLE THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS COULD SEE A DECENT RESPONSE...BUT
GIVEN THE OVERALL PATTERN AND AVAILABLE GUIDANCE...THINK DO NOT SEE
ANY REALLY GREAT SOURCES OF MOISTURE TO SUPPORT ANY PRECIPITATION.
WHILE TROUGH MAY NOT BRING A PRECIP THREAT...DOES LOOK LIKE THIS
SYSTEM WILL CAUSE COLD FRONT TO ONCE AGAIN BACK INTO THE AREA
OVERNIGHT BRINGING ANOTHER PERIOD OF LOW STRATUS AND POTENTIALLY A
LARGE GRADIENT IN TEMPERATURES.

FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TEMPERATURES...EXPECT TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE 50S
IN THE WEST TO THE 20S IN THE EAST AS SHALLOW ARCTIC FRONT BACKS
INTO THE AREA. AM FAIRLY CONFIDENT IN COLD TEMPS IN THE EAST...WITH
BIG QUESTION BEING HOW FAR WEST FRONT WILL GET BEFORE IT BEGINS TO
RETREAT. WITH DIV Q FIELDS SUGGESTING SOME AGEOSTROPHIC SUPPORT FOR
PUSHING THE FRONT WEST AND HAVE LEANED TOWARDS A MORE AGGRESSIVE
WESTERLY PUSH FOR THE TIME BEING. THIS FRONTAL ZONE MAY CONTINUE TO
CAUSE A FEW PROBLEMS ON FRIDAY AS LARGE DISCREPANCIES EXIST IN
OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE. WITH PV ANOMALY MOVING ACROSS...THINK THIS
WILL HELP DISPLACE COLD AIR TO THE EAST BUT GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY
THINK HOLDING DOWN TEMPS IN THE EAST AND NORTHEAST REASONABLE AT
THIS POINT.

JRM
&&

.AVIATION...
1056 AM MST WED JAN 18 2012

FOR THE 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS. OVERNIGHT...THINGS BEGIN
TO CHANGE AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA. AT KMCK...COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH AROUND THE 09Z TIME FRAME BRINGING WITH IT A
SHIFT IN WIND DIRECTION TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST AND LOW STRATUS. THERE
MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CIGS HERE WITH INITIAL COLD FRONT PASSAGE
BUT SHOULD RISE TO LOW MVFR LEVELS AS COLD AIR LAYER DEEPENS. AT
KGLD...LOWER CONFIDENCE HERE AS COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR
THE KGLD AREA. WILL LEAVE WIND DIRECTION VARIABLE DURING THE MORNING
HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR UNCERTAINTY AND CONTINUE VFR CONDITIONS. IT SHOULD
BE NOTED HOWEVER THAT IFR CIGS WILL CERTAINLY BE A POSSIBILITY SHOULD
THE COLD FRONT PROGRESS SLIGHTLY FARTHER WEST THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED.
FOR THIS I WILL INCLUDE A LOW FEW DECK FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CIGS
AND WILL LET NEXT SHIFT REASSESS FURTHER.

050
&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

1007 AM MST WED JAN 18 2012

.UPDATE...
1007 AM MST WED JAN 18 2012

CJS
&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 AM MST WED JAN 18 2012

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WILL MAINLY BE
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AND WIND SPEEDS TODAY.

JRM
&&

.AVIATION...
428 AM MST WED JAN 18 2012

FOR THE 12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 25KTS PERSISTING THROUGH THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH KMCK OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS VEERING TO NORTHEAST. /024
&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

454 AM MST WED JAN 18 2012

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 450 AM MST WED JAN 18 2012

MID-HIGH CLOUD DECK HAS DEVELOPED RAPIDLY OVER THE PAST 2 HOURS
AND HAS BECOME VERY WIDESPREAD ACROSS WESTERN CWA...AND WILL
LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. THIS MAY HOLD TEMPS BACK
SOME DURING THE DAY...BUT DIFFICULT TO REALLY GAGE WHAT KIND OF
IMPACT IT WILL HAVE UNTIL SUNRISE WHEN THE THICKNESS OF CLOUD
SHIELD CAN BE BETTER DETERMINED.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 AM MST WED JAN 18 2012

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WILL MAINLY BE
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AND WIND SPEEDS TODAY.

JRM

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 AM MST WED JAN 18 2012

SHALLOW COLD AIR DOME MAY HANG AROUND EARLY IN THE PERIOD
ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY. MILDER
TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. NEXT COLD FRONT COMES
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON SNOW CHANCES AND
MOST ARE NOW DRY. COLDEST DAY LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE JANUARY...THEN WARMING UP TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR WEDNESDAY.

024

.AVIATION...
428 AM MST WED JAN 18 2012

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...JRM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

447 AM MST WED JAN 18 2012

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 444 AM MST WED JAN 18 2012

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WILL MAINLY BE
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AND WIND SPEEDS TODAY.

JRM

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 444 AM MST WED JAN 18 2012

024

.AVIATION...
428 AM MST WED JAN 18 2012

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

428 AM MST WED JAN 18 2012

.DISCUSSION...
219 AM MST WED JAN 18 2012

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WILL MAINLY BE
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AND WIND SPEEDS TODAY.

FOR THE PERIOD SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SHALLOW COLD AIR DOME MAY
HANG AROUND EARLY IN THE PERIOD ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA ON SATURDAY. MILDER TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. NEXT COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE
BACKED OFF ON SNOW CHANCES AND MOST ARE NOW DRY. COLDEST DAY LOOKS
TO BE TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE JANUARY...THEN
WARMING UP TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR WEDNESDAY. /024

.AVIATION...
428 AM MST WED JAN 18 2012

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

222 AM MST WED JAN 18 2012

.DISCUSSION...
219 AM MST WED JAN 18 2012

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WILL MAINLY BE
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AND WIND SPEEDS TODAY.

.AVIATION...
1017 PM MST TUE JAN 17 2012

FOR THE 06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
TIGHTER PRESSURE HAS DEVELOPED NEAR KGLD AS SURFACE HIGH MOVES TO
THE EAST AND LEE TROUGH STRENGTHENS. EXPECTED WINDS TO STAY GUSTY
THERE UNTIL NEAR 12Z. GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP AFTER SUNRISE AND WINDS
SHOULD BECOME GUSTY AGAIN UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY. WINDS WILL BECOME
VARIABLE LATE IN THE PERIOD AT KMCK AS A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA.

BULLER
&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAY ME

833 PM EST THU JAN 19 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH NEW ENGLAND AND THE GULF
OF MAINE OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL SHIFT INTO THE MARITIMES ON
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SHIFT EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES NEW
ENGLAND FROM THE SOUTHWEST. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS OUT TO SEA
SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE LIFTING
NORTHEAST OUT OF THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT
TOWARD NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT WITH A TRAILING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
ON WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON
THURSDAY.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
0123Z UPDATE...
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW BANDS OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
MOVING ONSHORE FROM THE GULF OF MAINE THIS EVENING. MUCH OF THIS
PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN VERY LIGHT IN NATURE. MEANWHILE...THE
TIMING OF THE STEADY SNOWFALL ENTERING THE FORECAST AREA IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST FROM THE LATEST HRRR
RUN.

WILL KEEP WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN
PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA. MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION ENTERING
THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS LIGHT...HOWEVER THERE SHOULD BE MODERATE
SNOWBANDS EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS PRECIPITATION FIELD AS NOTED
ENTERING THE CT/RI COASTLINE. WITH SURFACE WAVE ALREADY BEGINNING
TO FORM NEAR JFK AT 01Z...IN COMBINATION WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF
ENHANCED VERITICAL MOTION (INCLUDING THE SNOW GROWTH
REGION)...EXPECT AREAS OF 3-6 INCHES SNOWFALLS SOUTHEASTERN ZONES.
HIGHEST SNOWFALL TOTALS SHOULD BE NEAR THE PENOBSCOT RIVER VALLEY.

PREV UPDATE...
ALSO...LATEST HRRR MODEL UPDATE HAS A GOOD HANDLE WITH OCEAN
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ENTERING ROCKINGHAM AND YORK COUNTIES THIS
HOUR. HAVE UPPED POPS QUITE A BIT FOR THIS AREA TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS LOCAL PCPN. -SHSN WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD IN THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO INTO THE PWM AND POSSIBLY THE NHZ AREAS.

HAVE UPDATED GRIDS TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT TO OVERCAST
CONDITIONS WITH ADVISORIES IN EFFECT. REST OF THE GRIDS WILL
REMAIN RELATIVELY UNCHANGED WITH ADVISORIES CONTINUING FOR THE ERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

PREV DISC...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING A
BRIEF ROUND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW TO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE STILL FORECAST TO RE-DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
AND MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BUT MODELS NOT AS STRONG WITH THIS
SYSTEM TODAY AND QPF FOR THE EVENT HAS DROPPED OFF SOMEWHAT.
EXPECT SNOW TO PUSH INTO THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY EARLY THIS EVENING
AND QUICKLY OVER-SPREAD THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. WILL STILL BE GOING WITH THE CURRENT ADVISORIES FOR
SOUTHERN AND COASTAL MAINE EXCLUDING YORK COUNTY FOR THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. HAVE NOT CHANGED ACCUMULATIONS MUCH FROM YESTERDAY WITH 2
TO 4 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF NEW HAMPSHIRE
AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST MAINE. REMAINDER OF SOUTHERN AND COASTAL
MAINE WILL SEE 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOWFALL THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. EXPECT SNOW TO QUICKLY END IN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST
MAINE BEFORE DAYBREAK ON FRIDAY. SHOULD BE A MUCH WARMER NIGHT
WITH TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID TEENS IN THE NORTH AND MID TEENS TO
LOWER 20S IN THE SOUTH.

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL BRINGING CLEARING
SKIES AND MOSTLY SUNNY WEATHER TO MOST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY.
SHOULD SEE MORNING CLOUDS CLEARING OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS AND FAR
EASTERN ZONES BY NOON. EXPECT TEMPS TO RANGE THROUGH THE TEENS IN
THE NORTH AND THROUGH THE 20S AND LOWER 30S IN THE SOUTH.

MID HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AS
WEAK OVER-RUNNING PATTERN SHIFTS INTO THE NORTHEAST AHEAD OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. WILL INTRODUCE
LOW CHANCE POPS INTO SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT
EXPECT LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. LOW
TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM ZERO TO 10 BELOW IN THE NORTH AND 5 TO 15
ABOVE IN THE SOUTH.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS TRACK WEAK SFC LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST E AND OUT TO
SEA ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE -SN ACROSS THE FCST AREA WITH
LGT ACCUMULATIONS PSBL. HIGHEST CHC OF SN AND HIGHEST
ACCUMULATIONS OVER MORE SRN AREAS CLOSER TO THE LOW WITH LOWEST
CHC AND ACCUMULATION TO THE N. VERTICAL TEMP PROFILE CD ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT ALL SN FOR THIS EVENT.

THE LOW MOVES OUT TO SEA FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH -SN ENDING FROM W TO E
IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRES FOLLOWS WITH FAIR WX SATURDAY NGT AND
SUNDAY. THE HIGH MOVES OUT TO THE E SUNDAY NGT AS THE UPR LVL
RIDGE CRESTS ALONG THE E COAST. A STRONG UPR LVL CUTOFF SYSTEM
OVER THE UPPER MID WEST CREATES A FAIRLY STRONG SFC LOW OVER THE
GREAT LAKES THAT WILL TRACK SLOWLY E WITH A TRAILING CD FNT
EXTENDING TO THE S. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM INCREASING S SW FLOW FROM
SFC TO H5 BRINGS IN MUCH WARMER AIR ALOFT AND EVENTUALLY TO THE
SFC AS PRCP EVENTUALLY MOVES IN LATE SUNDAY NGT AND MONDAY. MAY BE
SOME -SN OR MIXED SN AND ICE TO BEGIN WITH BUT GRADUALLY PRPC
CHANGES OVER TO RA FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NGT THOUGH SOME -FZRA
STILL PSBL ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF ZONES WHERE IT WILL TAKE THE
LONGEST TO SCOUR OUT THE CD AIR AT THE SFC.

THE CD FNT MOVES THRU BY TUESDAY MORNING WITH COLDER AIR FOLLOWING
THE FNT AS TEMPS LIKELY TO FALL DURING THE DAY AFTER MILD PREDAWN
READINGS. A SECONDARY UPR LVL TROF MOVES THRU WHICH MAY PRODUCE A
FEW -SHSN BUT THE N/MT ZONES HAVE THE BEST CHC OF -SHSN DUE TO
DEVELOPING UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE CD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FNT.
HIGH PRES BRINGS FAIR WX WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY A FAST MOVING SFC
LOW THAT WILL TRACK TO OUR S BRINGING THE CHC OF -SN WEDNESDAY NGT
AND THURSDAY.

GENERALLY USED GFS40...HPC QPF AND BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS FOR SATURDAY
THRU SATURDAY NGT. USED GMOS FOR REST OF THE LONG TERM FCST...
EXCEPT USED A BLEND OF GFS40 AND MEX MOS GUIDANCE FOR MAX AND MIN
TEMPS.

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VSBY DEVELOPING THIS
EVENING...IMPROVING TO VFR ON FRIDAY. VFR FRIDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...IFR PSBL WITH -SN SATURDAY.
IFR OR LIFR PSBL WITH MIXED PRCP DEVELOPING LATE SUNDAY NGT AND
CONTINUING THRU MONDAY.

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...CONDITIONS BELOW SCA LEVELS
SATURDAY THRU SUNDAY NGT...THEN INCREASE TO SCA LEVELS OR PSBL
GALES MONDAY INTO MONDAY NGT IN STRENGTHEN S SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE
CD FNT. WINDS SHIFT TO THE W AS THE FNT MOVES OUT TO SEA AND CONT AT
SCA OR PSBL GALE LEVELS ON TUESDAY.

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST FRIDAY FOR MEZ012>014-
019>022-024>028.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

$$
JC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CARIBOU ME

1214 AM EST WED JAN 18 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE WEDNESDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY...THEN MOVE EAST THURSDAY EVENING. ANOTHER DEVELOPING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FROM MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL MOVE TOWARD THE
GULF OF MAINE THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE...DROPPED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ACROSS INTERIOR
DOWNEAST AND CENTRAL MAINE. LEFT NORTHERN AREAS GOING FOR A WHILE
LONGER W/SNOW HANGING ON. STARTING TO SEE SOME CONVECTIVE SNOW
BURSTS ACROSS THE W AND NW AREAS AS COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES
START MOVING IN. TWEAKED TEMPERATURES DOWN MORE ACROSS THE NORTH
PER THE LATEST TRENDS AND HOW THE RUC IS NOW SHOWING THE WARM NOSE
FURTHER E AND S OF CAR-PQI.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ALL WNTR WX ADVS CONTD FOR OUR FA. LGT SN AND SLEET AND PERHAPS A
LITTLE FZRA OVR INTERIOR DOWNEAST AND E CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA ERLY
AND MID EVE SHOULD TRANSITION TO RN LATE THIS EVE AND OVRNGT
BEFORE ENDING THERE. FURTHER N OVR N CNTRL AND NE PTNS OF THE
FA...MODEL CRITICAL THICKNESSES AND NOMOGRAMS SUGGEST MORE OF THE
PRECIPITATION FALLING AS SN BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO A BRIEF PD OF
SLEET AND FZRA LATE TNGT...AND EVEN ENDING AS RN AS LLVL WARM AIR
IS ABLE TO PUNCH UP AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW TRACKING NE ALG THE ST
LAWRENCE VLY. OVR THE FAR NW...PRECIP SHOULD BE MSLY ALL SN...WITH
PERHAPS A MIX OF SLEET AND FZRA BEFORE ENDING.

WITH MORE QPF AND MOST OF THE PRECIP FALLING AS SN OVR NW PTNS OF
THE FA...GREATEST SNFL WILL DEFINITELY FALL OVR THE NW WHERE 3TO 5
IN ARE XPCTD WITH LCL 6 IN AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. AMOUNTS DROP OFF
PROGRESSIVELY S AND E...WITH COASTAL AREAS EXPERIENCING LITTLE IF
ANY SN ACCUMULATION AND NO ICE...WITH PRECIP ONLY BRIEFLY MIXED
WITH SNOW OR SLEET AT THE ONSET. TEMPS TNGT WILL INITIALLY HOLD
STEADY THIS EVE...THEN RISE SIGNIFICANTLY LATE TNGT...TO ABV FZG
SPCLY OVR SRN AND ERN PTNS OF THE FA...INCLUDING ERN AROOSTOOK
COUNTY.

AFT THE LOW TRACKS N AND E OF THE FA WED TOWARD LABRADOR...LLVL
COLD ADVCN ACCOMPANIED BY BRISK WNW SFC WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
ISSUE...WITH TYPICAL TRAILING SC CLD CVR AND SCT SN SHWRS OVR THE
N HLF OF THE FA. SOME CONCERN ABOUT WIND GUSTS POSSIBLY APCHG WIND
ADV CRITERIA WED AFTN WITH THE STRONGEST PTN OF THE BACK SIDE PRES
GRAD...SPCLY OVR HIER TRRN WRN PTNS OF THE FA. BREAKING FACTORS
PREVENTING WIND ADV WIND GUSTS HOWEVER INCLUDE HI SFC-BL STATIC
STABILITIES WITH ARCTIC AIR ADVCTG INTO THE FA ATTM...ALONG WITH
SC CLD CVR WHICH COULD PREVENT THE STRONGEST WINDS ALF FROM ARND
925 MB FROM REACHING THE SFC...XCPT HIER OPEN TRRN WHERE FEW
PEOPLE INHABIT. TEMPS WILL FALL CONTINUOUSLY FROM ERLY TO MID MORN
HI TEMPS TO THE TEENS N AND 20S S BY SUNSET. CANNOT RULE OUT THE
POSSIBILITY OF BLSN WITH THE STRONGER WINDS WED AFTN...BUT THIS
COULD BE LIMITED TO THE FAR NW WHERE TEMPS ARE NOT LIKELY TO GET
ABV FZG WED MORN...OTHERWISE OTHER AREAS GETTING SIG SNFL WILL
LIKELY SEE THE TOP LAYER GET SLUSHY...PREVENTING MUCH IN THE WAY
OF BLSN.

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE STATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST TOWARD THE REGION. EXPECT
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS SHOULD DROP OFF AFTER
MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY ALLOWING FOR SOME DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING BY
THURSDAY MORNING. EXPECT SUBZERO LOWS ACROSS THE NORTH AND ZERO TO
5 ABOVE DOWNEAST.

THURSDAY WILL BE A DRY DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST DURING
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF
THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL
BE 5 TO 10 ABOVE ACROSS THE NORTH AND 10 TO 20 ABOVE ACROSS MOST
OF DOWNEAST MAINE.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS QUEBEC THURSDAY NIGHT GIVING
WAY TO A WEAK SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE BY
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO TRACK RAPIDLY
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MARITIMES ON FRIDAY. CONSENSUS OF MODEL SOLUTIONS
LEAVES ENOUGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE TO GO WITH CATEGORICAL POPS LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. IT SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL
SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM. AT THE PRESENT TIME IT LOOKS LIKE MOST
AREAS WILL SEE LIGHT TO PERHAPS MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE...AS MOST OPERATIONAL MODELS
INDICATE THIS SYSTEM WILL BE RATHER PROGRESSIVE. IN ANY
EVENT...THE STEADIEST SNOW SHOULD TAPER TO SNOW SHOWERS BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE PULLING AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA AT THE
START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. AS SUCH EXPECT SNOW TO BE WINDING
DOWN FRIDAY NIGHT WITH COLDER AIR STREAMING INTO THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN BEHIND THE LOW SATURDAY. THEN ANOTHER
LOW WILL MOVE BY TO OUR SOUTH BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR SNOW TO MAINLY
SOUTHERN MAINE SATURDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER HIGH FOLLOWS WITH DRY WEATHER
RETURNING BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THEREAFTER DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE
LONG TERM MODELS BEGINS TO GROW. ANOTHER LOW WILL AFFECT THE REGION
EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT THE ECMWF SAYS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
WHILE THE GFS INDICATES MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. HAVE GONE WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE OR LOW CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. BOTH MODELS INDICATE HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS TUESDAY SO HAVE GONE DRY FOR THAT PERIOD. WITH
SEVERAL SYSTEMS PROGGED TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION TEMPERATURES WILL
BE FAIRLY UP AND DOWN. THEY SHOULD BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL DURING
THE SNOWY PERIODS BUT COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WHEN THE REGION
IS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

.AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: AWW FOR BIA/BGR DONE.

PREVIOUSLY...INITIALLY LOW VFR OR MVFR LATE THIS
AFTN...TRANSITIONING TO IFR ALL SITES THIS EVE WITH PRECIP WITH SN
OVR NRN SITES TRANSITIONING TO MIXED PRECIP LATE TO VERY LATE TNGT
AND MIXED PRECIP OVR DOWNEAST SITES TRANSITIONING TO SHWRS LATE
TNGT AS WARMER AIR MOVES NWRD. DOWNEAST SITES WILL TRANSITION
RAPIDLY TO VFR BY ERLY WED MORN WITH STRONG DOWNSLOPE WRLY WINDS
WITH NRN SITES TRANSITIONING TO MVFR WED MORN...WITH THOSE
CONDITIONS CONTG THRU THE REST OF THE DAY.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN LIKELY LATER THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY KBGR/KBHB TERMINALS IN SNOW.
VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH
PERHAPS SOME LINGERING IFR EARLY FRIDAY EVENING ACROSS THE FAR
NORTH DUE TO SNOW SHOWERS. LOW PRESSURE MOVING BY TO THE SOUTH OF
THE STATE WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR OR EVEN SOME IFR IN
SNOW SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE AND VFR RETURNS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL CONT THE GLW EARLIER ISSUED...BEGINNING LATE TNGT
WITH WSW WINDS AND CONTG THRU ALL OF THE DAY WED AS WINDS BECOME
WNW BEHIND DEPARTING DEEPENING LOW PRES. USED A BLEND OF NAM12 AND
GFS40 FOR WINDS AND KEPT CLOSE TO WW3 WV HTS FOR THIS UPDATE.

SHORT TERM: GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS BY
LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND THEN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS MAY THEN INCREASE TO NEAR GALE
FORCE BEHIND LOW PRESSURE ON FRIDAY.

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
MEZ001>006-010.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ050>052.

$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PITTSBURGH PA

424 PM EST WED JAN 18 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE, PASSING EAST, WILL PROVIDE A DRY BREAK TONIGHT
INTO MIDDAY THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT, COMING EAST FROM MINNESOTA, WILL
BRING SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE,
COMING NORTHEAST FROM TEXAS, WILL PROVIDE A WINTRY MIX FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
PER BLEND OF RECENT RADAR, SATELLITE, AND SURFACE DATA, COUPLED
WITH RECENT HRRR AND NAM MODEL OUTPUT, EXPECT ANY REMAINING
ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS TO END EARLY THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN DRY INTO MIDDAY THURSDAY.

FORECASTED LOW TEMPERATURES TO BE ABOUT 3 DEGREES COLDER THAN
NORMAL USING BLEND OF NAM AND GFS MOS.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
BLEND OF RECENT SREF MODEL OUTPUT SHOWS LOW PRESSURE, COMING EAST
FROM MINNESOTA, WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN COLD ENOUGH
FOR THIS TO BE A SNOW EVENT. MORE RECENT MODEL MEMBERS, SUCH AS THE
NAM AND GFS, SHOW THE SNOW SHOWERS TO BEGIN AFFECTING MOST
LOCATIONS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. THE BULK OF THE SNOW
ACCUMULATION, GENERALLY 1 TO 2 INCHES, WILL OCCUR THURSDAY
EVENING.

WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET BACKING INTO A WESTSOUTHWEST ORIENTATION, RECENT
SREF MODEL OUTPUT THEN SHOWS LOW PRESSURE COMING NORTHEAST FROM
TEXAS. THE ASSOCIATED WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT WILL LIKELY CAUSE
MIXED PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF CWA FOR THIS
PERIOD. ONSET OF PRECIPITATION SATURDAY MORNING WILL CONSIST OF
RAIN...FREEZING RAIN...AND SLEET THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE
TURNING INTO RAIN AND SNOW IN THE EVENING. AREAS NEAR PITTSBURGH
AND NORTH WILL RECEIVE PRECIPITATION MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW.
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AND POTENTIAL FOR ICING FROM FREEZING RAIN AND
SLEET MAY EVENTUALLY NECESSITATE WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES.

FORECASTED TEMPERATURES THIS PERIOD USING A BLEND OF NAM AND GFS.
THESE SHOWED TEMPERATURES TO BE NEAR NORMAL THURSDAY, GOING
COLDER THAN NORMAL FRIDAY, AND THEN REBOUNDING TO WARMER THAN
NORMAL VALUES SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND A DEPARTING SYSTEM AND PROVIDE
DRY WEATHER LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL THEN PUSH A SURFACE LOW
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. PERIODS OF SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MONDAY...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS MOISTURE WRAPS BEHIND THE LOW.

DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN BY WEDNESDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH
MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.

STAYED CLOSE TO HPC GUIDANCE WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING WELL ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXPECT STRATOCUMULUS CEILINGS TO BE REMAIN PREDOMINATELY IN THE VFR
RANGE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS IN NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL CAUSE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR RESTRICTIONS THROUGH 22Z.

BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS SHOULD SCATTER OUT BY EARLY EVENING AS LOW
LEVEL FLOW WEAKENS UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.

NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY AND
WILL SWING AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS WITH
OCCASIONAL IFR RESTRICTIONS CAN BE EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BRIEFLY RETURN BY FRIDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH
SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION. A SYSTEM TRACKING SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL
BRING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR RESTRICTIONS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. AFTER A PERIOD OF VFR WEATHER SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY...AN APPROACHING FRONT IS PROGGED TO SPREAD
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND RESTRICTIONS ACROSS THE TERMINALS MONDAY.
&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PITTSBURGH PA

1106 AM EST WED JAN 18 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD NORTHWEST WINDS WILL KEEP SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PASS
BY TO PROVIDE A DRY BREAK TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. A GREAT
LAKES LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PER BLEND OF RECENT RADAR, SATELLITE, AND SURFACE DATA, COUPLED
WITH RECENT HRRR AND NAM MODEL OUTPUT, EXPECT BANDS OF SCATTERED
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO
MID AFTERNOON. ANY NEW SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIMITED AND
MAINLY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THEN AS MIDWEST HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES TOWARD EVENING, EXPECT
THE COLD WINDS ALOFT TO WEAKEN WHICH HELP STABILIZE THE SURFACE
LAYER AND END THE SNOW SHOWERS AND DECREASE THE CLOUD COVER.

TEMPERATURES WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS INDICATED
BY RECENT HRRR AND GFS LAMP VALUES.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE IS PROJECTED
TO QUICKLY SLIDE ACRS THE REGION, AND A LOW DEVELOPS NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES. THE ADVANCE OF THAT SYSTEMS COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS ON THURSDAY...AND LIKELY POPS WERE
INCLUDED FOR MUCH OF THE REGION...ALTHOUGH BETTER NUMBERS WERE
CONTINUED ALONG THE I 80 CORRIDOR. PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE
SYSTEM SHOULD LIMIT ACCUMULATION ONCE AGAIN, WITH ABOUT AN INCH
ANTICIPATED.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS GFS/NAM TIMED FOR A FRIDAY APPROACH AND
SATURDAY PASSAGE. THAT SYSTEM AS CURRENTLY FORECAST COULD BRING
MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION DESPITE ITS PROGRESSIVE NATURE. WIND
FIELDS/JET STRUCTURE...AND TEMPERATURE PROFILE WILL HAVE TO
MONITORED AS THAT SCENARIO MATURES.

SHORT TERM TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST PRETTY CLOSE TO THE AVERAGES
WITH THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN PROGGED OVR THE REGION.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ECMWF AND GFS MODELS ARE PROJECTING DEVELOPMENT OF AN UPR TROUGH OVR
THE MOUNTAIN/PLAINS STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK. FLOW OVR THE GREAT LAKES
AND UPR OH REGIONS SHOULD THEN BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AND SUPPORT A
WARMER TEMPERATURE FORECAST. HOWEVER...A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES
WITHIN THAT FLOW IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT PERIODIC SHOWERS.
MAGNITUDE OF THE TROUGH AND TIMING ARE QUESTIONABLE...THUS
CONFIDENCE IN SPECIFICS IS MINIMAL.

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PER RECENT SURFACE AND RADAR DATA, EXPECT STRATOCUMULUS CEILINGS
TO BE MAINLY IN THE VFR RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED BANDS OF
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CAN CAUSE BRIEF MVFR INTERLUDES THROUGH 20Z.
NORTHWEST WINDS CAN GUST TO 25 KTS.

EXPECT VFR TONIGHT AS STRATOCUMULUS DISSIPATES THIS EVENING. WINDS
WILL BECOME SOUTH 5 TO 8 KTS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
THERE CAN BE RESTRICTIONS LATE THURSDAY DUE TO COLD FRONTAL SNOW
SHOWERS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON FRIDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH
PASSES ACROSS THE TERMINALS. A SURFACE LOW PASSING SOUTH OF THE
AREA WILL RETURN THE CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WITH
RESTRICTIONS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

436 PM EST WED JAN 18 2012

.SYNOPSIS...

12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW WEAK SHRTWV RDGING
IMPACTING THE UPR GRT LKS WITHIN LO AMPLITUDE TROFFING OVER CENTRAL
NAMERICA TO THE S OF CLOSED LO OVER HUDSON BAY. AS OF EARLY THIS
AFTN...THE SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHRTWV RDG HAS ENDED PCPN
EVERYWHERE EXCEPT OVER THE N HALF OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA...WHERE
A LO PRES TROF LINGERS TO THE N OF SFC HI PRES IN THE OH RIVER
VALLEY. BUT AS THE FLOW CONTINUES TO BACK TO THE SW BTWN THE
DEPARTING HI TO THE SE AND ANOTHER SHRTWV MOVING E THRU THE NRN
PLAINS...THESE SHSN ARE TENDING TO DRIFT NEWD INTO LK SUP. THE
DISTURBANCE TO THE W IS A POTENT ONE WITH SUPPORTING H5/H3 JET MAX
AND WIND SPEEDS OF 100KT/150KT DIGGING ESEWD THRU THE NW PLAINS.
HOWEVER...SINCE UPSTREAM AIRMASS IS FAIRLY DRY...THE BULK OF THE
PCPN IS FALLING TO THE N OF WARM FNT AND ON THE COLD SIDE OF COLD
FNT ATTENDANT TO SFC LO IN WCNTRL MN. GUSTY NW WINDS UP TO 35-40KTS
ARE DRIVING VERY COLD AIR SEWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS BEHIND THIS LO
AND AHEAD OF VIGOROUS PRES RISE CENTER IN THE DAKOTAS. THE 12Z H85
TEMP AT GREAT FALLS MT WAS -31C.
&&

.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION /TNGT AND THU/...

TNGT...SHRTWV TO THE W IS FCST TO SLIDE ESEWD THRU NRN WI AND INTO
NRN LWR MI BY 12Z THU WHILE SFC LO CENTER SHIFTS ENEWD ACRS THE
KEWEENAW AND INTO ERN LK SUP BY 12Z THU. STRONG SLY FLOW OF H85
TEMPS ARND -12C OFF THE 4C WARM WATERS OF LK MI AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE INDICATE THERE WL BE ENUF INSTABILITY TO GENERATE LES...
WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT AS DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC/MSTR ASSOCIATED WITH
APRCHG SHRTWV ARRIVE OVHD. 12Z NAM/CNDN MODELS SHOW QPF OF 0.20-0.30
INCH NEAR ERY. CONSIDERING FVRBL OMEGA PROFILE WITHIN DGZ...EXPECT
HI SN/WATER RATIO ARND 25:1 AND UP TO 6 INCHES OF SN E OF ERY. THE
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY WL BE RATHER NARROW AS THE FLOW IS PROGGED TO
VEER MORE TO THE WSW OVERNGT...SHIFTING THE HEAVIER SHSN TO THE E.
ISSUED LES ADVY EARLIER TDAY FOR THIS EXPECTED SN. FARTHER
W...FAIRLY DRY ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE COLD FNT AS OBSVD THIS AFTN
SUG THERE WL BE LTL IN THE WAY OF SN UNTIL THE COLD FROPA...ABOUT
03Z OVER THE FAR W AT IWD TO ARND 12Z AT ERY. WITH SHARP THERMAL
GRADIENT/FGEN...SUSPECT THERE WL BE A PERIOD OF SN WITH THE
FROPA...ESPECIALLY NEAR LK SUP WHERE THERE WL BE EXTRA
MOISTENING/UPSLOPE FLOW. OVER THE SCNTRL... EXPECT ONLY SCT -SHSN
WITH MORE DOWNSLOPE FLOW. ALTHOUGH THE SYNOPTIC SN WL CUT OFF
QUICKLY WITH FAST ARRIVAL OF DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC/SUBSIDENCE...LES
WL DVLP IN THE STRENGTHENING NW FLOW OF ARCTIC AIR LEFT IN THE WAKE
OF DEPARTING LO. H85 TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO PLUMMET TO ARND -25C AT
IWD BY 12Z THU. ANOTHER SGNFT FEATURE TNGT WL BE STRENGTHENING NW
FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG CAD/IN ADVANCE OF APRCHG PRES RISE
CENTER THAT IS FCST TO REACH THE W TOWARD 12Z. PREFER THE STRONGER
H925 WINDS UP TO 40-45KTS SHOWN BY THE 12Z GFS/LOCAL WRF-ARW RUNS
GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THIS DISTURBANCE...AND THESE WINDS WL MIX
EFFICIENTLY TO THE SFC WITH VIGOROUS CAD. THE COMBINATION OF THE
STRONG WINDS AND FALLING TEMPS WL PUSH WIND CHILLS AS LO AS -20 TO
-25F OVER GOGEBIC COUNTY.

THU...GUSTY NW WINDS/VIGOROUS CAD WITH H85 TEMPS FALLING TO ARND
-25C AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC WL BE IN PLACE
BEHIND THE DEPARTING SFC LO/UPR DISTURBANCE AT DAYBREAK. EXPECT THE
WINDS TO DIMINISH THU AFTN FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF PRES RISE CENTER TO
THE E AFT 18Z. WITH THE SLOW APRCH OF HI PRES FM THE W...MODEL FCST
SDNGS SHOW THE INVRN BASE AT IWD SINKING TO AOB 3K FT AGL BY LATE IN
THE DAY AS WINDS BACK MORE TO THE W...DIMINISHING THE PCPN IN THAT
AREA. THIS FLOW WL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR AREAS FARTHER TO THE N THRU
THE KEWEENAW...MAINTAINING HIER INVRN HGTS. EXPECT LES TO INTENSIFY
OVER THE E WITH ENHANCED LLVL CNVGC PERSISTING AT THE END OF LONG NW
FETCH OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF LK SUP. WITH INVRN BASE FCST ARND 5K
FT AGL OVER THE KEWEENAW AND OVER THE E...LES CHART SUGS UP TO 6
INCHES OF SN PER 12 HR PERIOD. ALTHOUGH THESE AMOUNTS MAY NOT EASILY
EXCEED WARNING THRESHOLDS...THE ARRIVAL OF MUCH COLDER AIR THAT
DROPS H85 TEMPS TO ARND -25C AND THE DGZ ALMOST TO THE SFC OVER THE
W AS WELL AS THE GUSTY WINDS WL HAMPER SN GROWTH...LEADING TO
SMALLER SN FLAKES. WITH GUSTY WINDS...EXPECT EFFICIENT REDUCTION IN
VSBY THAT JUSTIFIES GOING WITH WRNGS IN MOST COUNTIES EXCEPT FOR
GOGEBIC COUNTY...WHICH WL NOT BE AS EXPOSED TO THE STRONG WINDS.
WITH THE INFLUX OF COLD AIR...TEMPS WL BE STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING
THRU THE DAY.

.LONG TERM /00Z FRI THROUGH NEXT WED/...

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRI...NW LES WILL BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD...BUT INTENSITY SHOULD BE LIGHTER THAN THU MORNING AS DRY AIR
AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT LOWERS INVERSION HEIGHTS TOWARDS 4-5KFT.
A SECONDARY SURGE OF LLVL MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE TOWARDS MIDNIGHT AS
MID LVL RIDGING SLIDES TO THE E OF THE AREA. THIS ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE BOOSTS THE INVERSION HEIGHTS TO 5-6KFT BY 06Z. AS THE HIGH
MOVES FARTHER SE AND A WEAK TROUGH SLIDES OVER NRN LAKE
SUPERIOR...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE FROM THE WSW. 850MB TEMPS
WILL WARM SOME TO AROUND -22C...WHICH PLACES MORE OF THE DGZ IN THE
BEST LIFT. THIS IS ALSO NOTED BY THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW PARAMETER
INCREASING TO AROUND 0.75 OVER THE KEWEENAW BY 03Z FRI. THE BACKING
WINDS WILL TEND TO FAVOR A STRONGER LES BAND FOCUSING SOMEWHERE OVER
NWRN UPPER MI FROM NEAR ONTONAGON INTO THE KEWEENAW...AND SHOULD
MOVE N THROUGH THE DAY AS WINDS BECOME MORE SWLY. LIKELY POPS FROM
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOK GOOD...SO WILL MAKE MINOR TREAKS TO THOSE
GRIDS. ONGOING MULTI BANDED LES OVER ERN UPPER MI WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
BY 18Z FRI AS WINDS BECOME SWLY...BUT THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF
STRONGER SNOW DUE TO CONVERGENCE AS WINDS BACK...BUT THAT MAY STAY
JUST OFFSHORE AS WELL.

WENT WITH THE LOW END OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS THU NIGHT. COLD...DRY
AIR AND DECREASING WINDS WILL BRING LOW TEMPS DOWN TO NEAR -20 OVER
THE INTERIOR WEST. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AT AROUND 5KTS...BUT WIND
CHILLS WILL STILL FALL TO AROUND -30. CONTINUED TO HIGHLIGHT THIS
THREAT IN THE HWO. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE TEENS FRI.

AN UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVES TO OUR S FRI AFTERNOON...LEADING TO SOME
PRECIP SKIRTING THE SRN CWA. AT THIS TIME...THE MENOMINEE AREA LOOKS
TO GET THE MOST SNOW FROM THIS SYSTEM...BUT WOULD BE AN INCH AT
MOST. IF THE SYSTEM ENDS UP MOVING FARTHER N...SNOWFALL TOTALS WOULD
BE HIGHER.

SATURDAY...MODELS START TO DIVERGE ON SOLUTIONS AT THIS
POINT...ALTHOUGH NOT DRASTICALLY...YET. MAIN DIFFERENCES COME FROM
THE TIMING OF SFC RIDGING MOVING THROUGH. THE GFS IS ON THE SLOWER
END OF GUIDANCE...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS OF THE CWA AT 18Z SAT. THE
ECMWF IS FASTER...WITH THE AXIS OVER THE CWA AT 12Z SAT. THE BIG
DIFFERENCE FROM THIS IS WITH WIND DIRECTIONS. AHEAD OF THE RIDGE
AXIS...WINDS LOOK TO BE MORE NWLY...WHICH WOULD BRING SOME LIGHT LES
NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR E OF MUNISING. WILL GO WITH A MORE BLENDED
SOLUTION RIGHT NOW...WITH THE GREATEST POPS IN NW FLOW AREAS LATE
FRI NIGHT/SAT MORN. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S SAT.

SAT NIGHT THROUGH WED...A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
MOVES THROUGH DURING THIS TIME...BUT MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME
HANDLING THESE SYSTEMS. NOT ONLY IS MODEL AGREEMENT POOR...RUN TO
RUN DISCONTINUITY IS ALSO A PROBLEM DURING THIS TIME. THESE FACTORS
LEAD TO WELL BELOW NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN THIS PART OF THE FORECAST.
OVERALL...STUCK WITH CONSENSUS MODEL BLENDS FOR THIS PERIOD.

THE GENERAL FEEL FROM THE MODELS IS THAT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
MOVE INTO THE NRN PLAINS SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. THIS LEADS TO
INCREASING TEMPS IN THE SW FLOW WAA REGIME AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP CURRENLTY LOOKS TO BE SAT NIGHT INTO
SUN...BUT AS STATED BEFORE CONFIDENCE IS LIMITED.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER WILL PROBABLY RESULT LATE MON OR TUE AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES OVER THE CWA. MODELS THEN SHOW A SHARP
UPPER TROUGH MOVING TO THE CENTRAL CONUS WED...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN
PRECIP OVER PARTS OF THE REGION.
&&

.AVIATION /FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PASSES UPPER MI TODAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN AT VFR AT ALL SITES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT WILL SPREAD LIGHT SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING...THOUGH
DRY AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT SUGGESTS LIMITED VIS REDUCTION THROUGH
MID EVENING. LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF FRONT COMBINED WITH HIGH LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN WINDS NEAR THE
SURFACE INTO THIS EVENING...THOUGH SOME LLWS MAY DEVELOP IF ENOUGH
DECOUPLING OCCURS. BEHIND THE FRONT OVERNIGHT...NORTHWEST WINDS
INCREASE AT ALL THREE SITES...FAVORING MDT/HVY LES AT IWD AND CMX.
THE COMBINATION OF HEAVY LES AND STRONGER WINDS WILL SIGNIFICANTLY
REDUCE VIS AT CMX DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LES SHOULD BEGIN TO
EASE SLIGHTLY AROUND 18Z ON THURSDAY AS WINDS BEGIN TO BACK TO THE
WEST AND DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA.
&&

.MARINE /FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE/...

GOING S GALES UP TO 35 KTS OVER ERN LK SUP THIS EVNG STILL APPEAR ON
TRACK WITH SHARPENING PRES GRADIENT/AREA OF PRES FALLS PASSING TO
THE N. AS THE SFC LO PASSES W-E LATE TNGT INTO THU...EXPECT SHARP
WSHFT TO THE NW. INFLUX OF BITTERLY COLD AIR WILL ENHANCE MIXING OF
WINDS UP TO 40-45 KTS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE...GALES WILL DEVELOP IN
MOST AREAS. WITH HI WAVES AS WELL...EXPECT HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY OVER
THE ENTIRE LAKE. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL TEND TO DIMINISH ON THU
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
BEFORE A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OVER LAKE SUPERIOR ON FRIDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN ON SATURDAY...THEN WILL MOVE EAST SATURDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BEFORE
MOVING EAST MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS STILL A LARGE AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM.

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
MIZ084.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 7 AM THURSDAY TO 1 AM EST FRIDAY
FOR MIZ006-007-085.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 1 AM THURSDAY TO 7 AM EST FRIDAY
FOR MIZ001-003.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
THURSDAY FOR MIZ009.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ007.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
THURSDAY FOR MIZ002.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 7 AM THURSDAY TO 7 AM EST
FRIDAY FOR LSZ243>251-264>267.

GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LSZ266-267.

GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LSZ249>251-264-
265.

GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LSZ242>245-248.

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 1 AM EST /MIDNIGHT CST/
THURSDAY TO 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ FRIDAY FOR LSZ162-240>242-
263.

GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM EST /MIDNIGHT CST/ TO 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/
THURSDAY FOR LSZ240-241.

GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM EST /9 PM CST/ THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
/NOON CST/ THURSDAY FOR LSZ162-263.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ221-
248-250.

GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ221-248-250.

SYNOPSIS...KC
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...KC/TITUS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS MARQUETTE MI

1217 AM EST WED JAN 18 2012

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 06Z TAFS

.SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 503 PM EST

12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW STRONG UPR
DISTURBANCE IN THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY AND ACCOMPANYING SFC LO OVER
SRN LWR MI MOVING STEADILY TO THE E. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IS A BIT
FARTHER N OVER MN. ALTHOUGH THE SHARPER DYNAMICS/WAD/MORE
SUBSTANTIAL MSTR ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN DISTURBANCE IS
REMAINING TO THE S...ENHANCED H4-2 DVGC OVER THE CWA IN RRQ OF UPR
JET JUST S OF JAMES BAY AND THE UPR JET TO THE S THAT IS SUPPORTING
THE SOUTHERN SHRTWV AS WELL AS SLOPED FGEN ON THE COLD SIDE SYNOPTIC
FNT TO THE SE IS PROVIDING ENUF LIFT TO OVERCOME GENERAL CAD AT H85
TO BRING A WIDESRPEAD SN. THIS PCPN IS HEAVIEST IN THE N WIND SN
BELTS NEAR LK SUP WHERE THE INCOMING AIRMASS...H85 TEMPS AOB
-15C...IS CAUSING SOME ENHANCEMENT TO THE SN WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL N
WIND SHOWN ON THE MQT VWP THRU 8K FT MSL. SPOTTER NEAR IWD REPORTED
6-8 INCHES OF SN AS OF ABOUT 1630Z. HOWEVER...LATEST RADAR TRENDS
SHOW DIMINISHING MSTR/RETURNS ARRIVING W-E AS DISTURBANCES ARE
MOVING STEADILY E IN PROGRESSIVE UPR FLOW. UPSTREAM ARCTIC AIRMASS
IN MN IS QUITE DRY/STABLE PER 12Z INL RAOB...WHERE THE 12Z H85 TEMP
WAS -19C. SFC TEMPS ARE NOT MUCH ABV ZERO F IN THIS AREA...WITH
DEWPTS WELL BLO 0F.
&&

.SHORT TERM /TNGT AND WED/... ISSUED AT 503 PM EST

MAIN FCST CONCERNS ARE LES TRENDS/AMOUNTS AND GOING HEADLINES/NEED
TO MAKE ANY ADJUSTMENTS TO THESE.

TNGT...AS PAIR OF DISTURBANCES/UPR JETS SHIFT TO THE E...SHRTWV RDG
AXIS/DRIER AIR IS PROGGED TO FOLLOW INTO THE UPR LKS. LINGERING
SYNOPTIC PCPN SHOULD DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTN OVER THE E WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF THE DRYING ALF AND RECENT RADAR TRENDS. ALTHOUGH THE
INCOMING AIRMASS WL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENTLY COLD FOR LES WITH H85
TEMPS FALLING TO ARND -20C...THE DRYNESS/STABILITY OF THE UPSTREAM
AIRMASS AS WELL THE STEADILY BACKING WINDS ACCOMPANYING THE MOVEMENT
OF SFC HI PRES INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY BY 12Z WED WL TEND TO
LIMIT LES AMOUNTS. FCST SDNGS FOR IWD SHOW INVRN BASE SINKING TO 2K
FT AGL BY 12Z WITH A SW SFC WIND...SO LES SHOULD END ENTIRELY THERE
BY THAT TIME. LES WL BE MORE RESILIENT E OF MQT WITH LONGER FETCH...
MORE PERSISTENT LLVL CNVGC AND INVRN BASE HANGING CLOSER TO 5K FT
MOST OF THE NGT. WITH BACKING LLVL FLOW/ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR...
EXPECT THE LOWEST MIN TEMPS OVER THE INTERIOR W HALF...WHERE SOME
CLRG IS LIKELY GIVEN DRYNESS OF UPSTREAM AIRMASS.

AS FOR HEADLINES...PLAN TO ALLOW THE GOING WRNGS/ADVYS FOR THE W TO
EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 00Z. OPTED TO CANX BARAGA COUNTY WITH
UNFAVORABLE NNW FLOW...BUT EXTENDED THE MQT ADVY UNTIL 00Z TO
ACCOUNT FOR LINGERING SHSN TOWARD THE ALGER COUNTY LINE. WL LET THE
ALGER ADVY GO THRU THE NGT WITH BULK OF SHSN SHIFTING INTO THAT
AREA. CONSIDERED A HEADLINE FOR NRN SCHOOLCRAFT AND LUCE COUNTIES AS
WELL...BUT THESE AREAS MISSED OUT ON THE BULK OF THE SN TDAY. WITH
SHIFTING WINDS TNGT... SUSPECT SN TOTALS IN THIS AREA WL BE LESS
THAN THE 3-5" INDICATED BY LES CHART FOR EXPECTED CONDITIONS EVEN
THOUGH THERE MAY BE PERIODS WHERE LLVL CNVGC IS ENHANCED BY LAND
BREEZE FLOW OFF ONTARIO.

WED...NEXT SHRTWV IN PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALF IS FCST TO MOVE FM THE NRN
PLAINS TO MN BY LATE IN THE DAY...WITH DVPA/WAD/DEEP LYR QVECTOR
CNVGC ARRIVING OVER THE W IN THE AFTN IN INCRSG SLY FLOW. WITH THE
BACKING FLOW...ANY LINGERING LES OVER THE KEWEENAW AND E OF GRAND
MARAIS WL SHIFT BACK INTO LK SUP. SINCE THE LO/MID LVLS WL BE
DRY...INITIAL DYNAMICS WL RESULT IN MAINLY THICKER MID/HI CLDS. WL
RETAIN GOING POPS ONLY FOR THE FAR W. WITH THE RETURN SSW FLOW OFF
LK MI...THERE COULD BE SOME LK CLDS/SHSN THERE AS WELL. BUT AIRMASS
APPEARS TOO DRY OVERALL TO SUPPORT MORE THAN LO CHC POPS.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT SFC LOW TO BE POSITIONED OVER
WESTERN LS AT 00Z THURSDAY TO RESIDE OVER CENTRAL LS/CENTRAL UPPER
MI BY 06Z...AND JUST EAST OF THE CWA BY 12Z THURSDAY. THERE ARE
SMALL DIFFERENCES WHICH SHOULD BE SMOOTHED OUT WITH ANOTHER RUN OR
2. THE 17/09Z SRF WAS THE SLOWEST/MOST NW OF THE OPTIONS WHILE THE
GFS WAS THE FARTHEST SOUTH. ALL SOLUTIONS WHERE STILL UNDER THE
RHELM OF POSSIBILITY.

THE SFC LOW WILL BE ASSISTED EASTWARD BY A 500MB TROUGH SWINGING
FROM MN AT 00Z THURSDAY...SLIDING EAST OF UPPER MI BY MID MORNING
THURSDAY. EVEN THROUGH HIGH PRESSURE WILL ATTEMPT TO BUILD IN FROM
THE DAKOTAS ON THURSDAY...A TYPICIAL LINGERING SFC TROUGH CAN BE
EXPECTED OVER LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY MORNING. THE
TROUGH SHOULD DIMINISH IN STRENGTH FRIDAY...BUT WILL QUICKLY BE
REPLACED BY ANOTHER TROUGH OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PUSHING
EASTWARD FROM THE DAKOTAS.

THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...PARTICULARLY INTERIOR WEST IF CLOUDS CLEAR OUT AS MUCH AS
EXPECTED.

DAYS 4 THROUGH 7...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
DISAGREEMENTS REMAIN WITH THE HANDLING OF THE FEATURE FOR THIS
WEEKEND. AT 500MB THE ECMWF IS APPROX 6 HOURS QUICKER THAN THE GFS
BY SUNDAY MONRNING. ADDING TO THE ISSUES THE CANADIAN IS NEARLY FLAT
WITH THE INCOMING THROUGH...WHILE THE ECMWF/GFS SHOW SIMILAR
STRENGTH. IN SUPPORT OF THE ECMWF...THE 17/00Z ENSEMBLE RUNS OF THE
GFS WERE GENERALLY QUICKER THAN THE OPERATIONAL GFS.

LOOK FOR A DOMINANT RIDGE TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEKEND...AND BUILD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
MONDAY...BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY. MORE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES CREEP IN MODEL WISE FOR
DAY7/TUESDAY. THE ECMWF STRENGTHENS THE 500MB TROUGH OFF THE WEST
COAST SUNDAY INTO A SIZABLE CUT OFF LOW ACROSS AZ/NM MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE. EITHER
WAY...THE NEXT 500MB TROUGH WILL LIKELY SLIDE IN DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION /FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

GRADUAL BACKING OF WINDS FROM NW TO SW OVERNIGHT THRU THE MORNING
WILL BRING AN END TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS...AND MVFR CIGS WILL
CLEAR OUT. LINGERING MVFR GIGS SHOULD CLEAR OUT AT KIWD IN THE NEXT
HR OR TWO PER SATELLITE TRENDS. AT KSAW...LINGERING FLURRIES AND
MVFR CIGS SHOULD CLEAR OUT TOWARD 12Z. AT KCMX...OVERLAKE
TRAJECTORIES WILL MAINTAIN FREQUENT -SHSN THRU THE NIGHT WITH MVFR
VIS AT TIMES. WIND SHIFT TO THE S TOWARD MID MORNING MAY BRING A
PERIOD OF IFR VIS IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS AS THE NORTHWARD MOVING
CONVERGENCE ZONE PASSES. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES
THIS AFTN. ARCTIC FRONT WILL SURGE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...40-50KT LOW-LEVEL JET WILL TRANSLATE
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTN/EVENING. AT THIS POINT...EXPECT ENOUGH
MIXING PER FCST SOUNDINGS TO MAINTAIN GUSTINESS AT THE SFC AND
PRECLUDE LLWS. WILL BE SOMETHING TO KEEP IN MIND. SOME -SN MAY BREAK
OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT MUCH BIGGER STORY WILL BE STRONG WINDS
AND MDT/HVY LAKE EFFECT SHSN ALONG AND BEHIND FRONT LATE EVENING AND
THRU THE NIGHT. NW WINDS WILL FAVOR KIWD/KCMX FOR WORST
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY KCMX. SNOW/BLSN MAY RESULT IN CONDITIONS
FALLING BLO AIRPORT MINS AT KCMX AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
&&

.MARINE /FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE/...

EXPECT N WINDS UP TO 30 KTS EARLY THIS EVNG TO DIMINISH WITH
APPROACH OF HI PRES RIDGE FROM THE W. AS THIS HI CENTER SHIFTS TO
THE E WELL S OF THE UPPER LAKES...THE FLOW WILL ALSO BACK STEADILY
TO THE S ON WED AND INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY/EVNG AS ANOTHER LO PRES
CENTER MOVES TOWARD WESTERN LAKE SUP. ONCE THIS LO MOVES BY TO THE
E...A STRONG NW WIND WILL DRIVE BITTERLY COLD ARCTIC AIR OVER THE
AREA ON THU. THE MIXING ENHANCED BY THE CONSIDERABLE OVERWATER
INSTABILITY WILL DRAG STRONG NW WINDS TO THE SURFACE...SO MAINTAINED
GALE WATCH FOR WED NIGHT THRU THU. ALSO OPTED TO ISSUE HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY WATCH FOR LATE WED NGT THRU THU NGT FOR ALL LK ZNS
WITH THE BITTERLY COLD AIR MOVING OVERHEAD. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFT
THU NGT WITH WEAK PRES GRADIENT DOMINATING INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MIZ006.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 7 AM THURSDAY TO 7 AM EST
FRIDAY FOR LSZ264>267.

GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
LSZ266-267.

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 1 AM EST /MIDNIGHT CST/
THURSDAY TO 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ FRIDAY FOR LSZ162-263.

GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM EST /9 PM CST/ THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
/NOON CST/ THURSDAY FOR LSZ162-263.

GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LSZ264-265.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...KC
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO

545 PM CST THU JAN 19 2012

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...
/305 PM CST THU JAN 19 2012/
High momentum quasi-zonal flow will persist across the conus through
the weekend, becoming more amplified yet still in a progressive
state by Sunday. Shortwave trough and attendant rich Pacific
moisture source affecting the Pacific NW today will shear eastward
across the Rockies inducing weak lee cyclogenesis Friday with a
modified boundary layer return flow pulling into the mid Mississippi
River valley. The vast majority of elevated waa and top down
saturation via Pacific moisture should be relegated to the I-80
corridor and points north, though flurries/light snow could
potentially affect far northern/northeast Missouri as weak
uvv/isentropic ascent in the cold cloud bearing layer supportive for
ice crystal growth clip this region. Overall, would expect little if
any accumulation.

Will also need to watch trajectories of return flow from the south
and the potential for extensive low clouds and drizzle through a
largely part of the cwa. Am quite skeptical of model moisture
profile initializations this morning; and consequently this leads to
higher uncertainty regarding any saturation in the boundary layer
Friday morning. NAM-WRF is most aggressive with low clouds north of
a developing warm front, with other models only partially becoming
saturated. Feel central Missouri stands the best chance for low
clouds and possible some drizzle, yet sounding profiles are not
quite indicative of drizzle. Further west, more veered wind profiles
just below the H8 inversion layer suggest drier air precluding
saturation. Have hedged towards the drier solutions feeling modeled
soil/atmosphere interface is too cold and saturated versus reality.
Nevertheless, with or without low clouds, more extensive mid/high
clouds streaming over the Rockies should limit overall insolation,
and have kept forecast temps near a model blend around climatology,
or about a category lower than previously advertised.

Dry and cool high pressure will maintain its influence over the
region on Saturday insuring temperatures once again near or slightly
below the climatological average. Renewed stronger lee cyclogenesis
late Saturday afternoon will allow sfc winds to back around to a sly
direction, strengthening through the evening and overnight hours.
Thus, expect temperatures to actually begin to rise not long after
sunset Saturday into Sunday morning.

Sunday - Wednesday:

Models continue to struggle with the timing and intensity of a
system for the early part of next week. However there has been
increased consistency for a few runs in bringing the system into the
area Sunday into Monday. Both the ECMWF and the GFS show a rather
strong wave moving through the Central Plains Sunday and this has
some support from the GFS ensemble mean and the ECMWF ensemble mean.
The GEM looks to be a bit too fast compared to the other models but
also moves a wave through the area Sunday. The placement of the wave
from the current suite of models brings the main energy associated
with the system a bit further north but again there is agreement
amongst the deterministic models and their ensemble partners. With
the placement possibly a bit further north and with the wave
currently looking rather robust, have increased temperatures for
Sunday. There is the potential to see temperatures in the 60s for at
least southern zones but if trends continue we could see more
widespread 60+ degree readings. In fact, if this were springtime and
not mid January the warm sector dynamics would be fairly conducive
for severe weather. Fortunately it is still January and it should
just lead to a warm and windy day with perhaps a few showers during
the afternoon before the system lifts away and temperatures begin to
drop on the backside of the low. Models produce a well pronounced
deformation area which for now would affect mainly northern Kansas
through Nebraska and Iowa. Some wrap around precipitation is likely
though, given current forecast track and as cold air advects into
the region, in the wake of the departing low, a transition to some
light snow is expected. This should mainly impact northern Missouri.

Models show another wave entering the region Wednesday into Thursday
but the GFS seems too intense with its QPF given that the wave tries
to split into a northern stream wave and southwestern closed low.
Given this have eased up on POPs for the middle of the week which
were fairly heavily influenced by the going forecast and the and GFS.

CDB

.AVIATION...

For the 00z TAF...Will maintain VFR forecast with east-northeast
winds veering to the east-southeast by Friday morning. Confidence
remains low on MVFR cigs developing overnight. NAM and to a lesser
extent the GFS have been forecasting MVFR clouds since at least the
12z Wednesday run. Inspection of 12z Thursday TOP sounding revealed
that this moisture was real. However, it appears the subsidence was
strong enough within this layer to prevent clouds from forming.
Overall, the latest RUC forecast sounding is doing best on cloud
forecast but it does hint at MVFR cloud cover forming after 09z
Friday. Will monitor the situation later tonight as warm air
advection processes may indeed result in MVFR cigs forming.
Since confidence remains low will leave out for now.

Otherwise, a second cold front is expected to drive through the
terminals by mid Friday afternoon with only a change in wind
direction.

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

WFO EAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTH PLATTE NE

1237 PM CST WED JAN 18 2012

.AVIATION...
ARCTIC FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. WINDS WILL
SWITCH FROM GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST THEN NORTH. TEMPS WILL ALSO
PLUMMET...WELL BELOW FREEZING. FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH KVTN
FIRST...AROUND 20Z...WITH THE BITTER COLD AIR ARRIVING AFTER 00Z.
ARRIVAL AT KLBF NOT AS WELL AGREED UPON IN THE MODELS...WITH A
TIME ESTIMATE AND MODEL CONCENSUS AROUND 01Z. BEHIND FRONT FRONT
WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MVFR CIGS. HIGHER CONFIDENCE IMPACT
FOR KVTN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...WHERE LIGHT SNOW IS ALSO
LIKELY OVERNIGHT. FURTHER SOUTH...FOR KLBF...CIGS STILL LOOK
PROBABLE...HOWEVER LIMITED LIFT RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS.

CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY LIFT LATE TOMORROW MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON...LIKELY STILL MVFR BY 18Z.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 536 AM CST WED JAN 18 2012/

UPDATE...

AVIATION...
VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z. THEREAFTER AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL BEGIN
MOVING SOUTH THROUGH NRN NEB PRODUCING MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR CIGS.
NOTE THAT THERE IS TIMING UNCERTAINTIES WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE
MVFR AND IT COULD BEGIN AS EARLY AS 21Z BASED ON THE RUC MODEL.

THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS SHOULD DROP AS FAR
SOUTH AS KOGA AND KIML BY 12Z THURSDAY. LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE AS
THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH.

WINDS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 27030G40KT ACROSS THE
SANDHILLS...MAINLY THE WRN SANDHILLS WITH LESSER SPEEDS EAST THROUGH
KTIF AND KBBW.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 AM CST WED JAN 18 2012/

UPDATE...

SHORT TERM...
BEST GUESS ON THE WIND SPEEDS TODAY AS DISCUSSED BELOW SUGGESTED
ADDING A FEW COUNTIES TO THE WIND ADVISORY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 AM CST WED JAN 18 2012/

DISCUSSION...
FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM DEAL WITH ADVISORY CRITERIA WIND
SPEEDS ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES TODAY...AND TEMPERATURE FORECAST
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. ALSO OF IMPORTANCE WILL BE THE
POSSIBILITY OF FLURRIES LATE TONIGHT...AND THE CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
AND/OR FREEZING DRIZZLE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF WRN NEB TODAY.
THESE WEST WINDS ARE DEVELOPING AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC FRONT. A BLEND OF
500M AGL WINDS FROM THE NAM AND MAV AND MET GUIDANCE WERE USED FOR
SPEEDS. MOSGUIDE AND NAMDNG WAS USED FOR GUSTS WHICH SHOULD REACH
40KT ACROSS PARTS OF WRN NEB.

WARM AIR ADVECTION AND WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL HELP PUSH
TEMPERATURES BACK NEAR IF NOT ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON
FOR MUCH OF THE CWA. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE NORTHERN REACHES OF
THE FORECAST AREA WHERE THE ABOVE MENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTH FROM THE DAKOTAS BRINGING ANOTHER ARCTIC PUSH OF COLD AIR.
LOOKING AT A WIDE RANGE OF HIGHS ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH THE WARMEST READINGS OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA /READINGS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S/. OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA...HIGHS WILL BE
REACHED EARLY IN THE DAY...AS CAA WILL TAKE HOLD AFTER THE NOON
HOUR...SO LOOKING FOR HIGHS ONLY IN THE 30S ALONG THE NIOBRARA RIVER
VALLEY.

FOR TONIGHT...CONTINUED THE MENTION OF FLURRIES ACROSS THE SAND
HILLS REGION OF NEBRASKA AS A SHORTWAVE RAPIDLY ADVANCES SOUTHEAST
FROM WESTERN CANADA TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ALSO WENT AHEAD
AND INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA. WHILE THE
MODELS ARE STILL STRUGGLING ON THE TIMING OF THE PASSING BAROCLINIC
ZONE...THE NAM...GFS AND A LESSER EXTENT THE EURO DEVELOP QPF
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. FLURRIES SEEM THE OPERATIVE MODE...HOWEVER
DECENT ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG THE 285-295K
LAYERS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATION. A QUICK CHECK OF
PWATS INDICATE VALUES REACHING THE 75 PERCENTILE...SO
MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE. POSSIBLE ACCUMULATIONS OF A QUARTER
TO A HALF INCH IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING ALONG THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER...ESPECIALLY SINCE THE FALLING
SNOW WILL BE FLUFFY IN NATURE. ON TO OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT...THE
GFS IS THE MOST PROGRESSIVE WITH THE COLD AIR DUMP...FOLLOWED BY THE
NAM AND EURO. THE MODELS SEEM TO CENTER ON THE AIRMASS REACHING -17C
AT 850MB BY 12Z THURSDAY OVER OUR NORTHERN ZONES. WITH THESE
READINGS...WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED TO SEE SUB ZERO READING ACROSS
NORTHERN NEBRASKA...UNLESS CLOUD COVER MODERATES TEMPERATURES. MAV
AND MET GUIDANCE INDICATES MINUS 9 AND 7 RESPECTIVELY AT VTN...WON/T
VENTURE THAT LOW YET...BUT ANY CLEARING WOULD ALLOW FOR THESE
READINGS...IF NOT COLDER. FURTHER SOUTH...SINGLE DIGIT READINGS
SEEM PLAUSIBLE...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FAR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. WITH
THE HIGHER TERRAIN...THE COLD AIR IS STRUGGLING TO PUSH ANY FURTHER
WEST THAN THE COLORADO BORDER...SO MID TEENS WILL BE QUITE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN ZONES EARLY TOMORROW. INTO THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST WITH RETURN SOUTHERLY
FLOW PUMPING H85 TEMPERATURES ABOVE 0C ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. THIS
SETS THE STAGE FOR A WIDE RANGE OF HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE CWA.
LOOKING FOR HIGHS TO RETURN TO NEAR CLIMO OVER WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...BUT REMAIN IN THE MID TEENS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA.

FORECAST GETS INTERESTING THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AS WARM AIR
ALOFT AND INCREASING MOISTURE COMBINE WITH A FRONTOGENETIC SUPPORT
TO PRODUCE LIGHT QPF OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW INTO THE
FORECAST...WILL CONTINUE...BUT ALSO INTRODUCE THE MENTION OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE. BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE TEMPERATURES ALOFT RISING
ABOVE 0C...WITH A SATURATED PROFILE INDICATIVE OF PERIODS OF FREEZING
RAIN. INTRODUCING FREEZING DRIZZLE IS A GOOD START...AND THEN CAN
GO FROM THERE...ESPECIALLY SINCE THESE SOUNDINGS INDICATE PERIODS OF
DRIER AIR IN THE MID LEVELS...MESSING WITH THE SEEDER FEEDER
PROCESSES.

LONG TERM...LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED AS THE MODELS ARE
STRUGGLING GREATLY ON RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY AND GENERAL AGREEMENT.
IN FACT...ON FRIDAY THERE IS A GREATER THAN 15C DIFFERENCE IN H85
TEMPERATURES OVER PARTS OF THE CWA WHEN COMPARING THE GFS AND NAM.
WITH THE LACK OF AGREEMENT...GENERALLY SIDED WITH THE COLDER GFS
SOLUTION...WHICH WOULD SUGGEST BELOW AVERAGE HIGHS ON FRIDAY...WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHWEST AND WESTERN
NEBRASKA. FOR SATURDAY AND THE REST OF THE WEEKEND...MODELS
ACTUALLY DO AGREE ON WARMING TEMPERATURES...THUS TRENDED HIGHS BACK
INTO THE 40S AND 50S BOTH DAYS. BEYOND SUNDAY...SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE THE LONGER RANGE MODELS WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST AS STATUS QUO...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING ACROSS
THE NORTH ON SUNDAY. OTHERWISE WILL KEEP THE EXTENDED DRY...WITH
NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES UNTIL BETTER AGREEMENT IS DISPLAYED FROM
THE SOLUTIONS.

AVIATION...
VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z. THEREAFTER AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL BEGIN
MOVING SOUTH THROUGH NRN NEB PRODUCING MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR CIGS.
THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS COULD DROP AS FAR SOUTH
AS KOGA AND KLBF BY 12Z THURSDAY. ISOLATED FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED TO
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS IT MOVES SOUTH.

WINDS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 27030G40KT ACROSS THE
SANDHILLS...MAINLY THE WRN SANDHILLS WITH LESSER SPEEDS EAST THROUGH
KTIF AND KBBW.

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NEZ004-022-023-
035-056-057.

SHORT TERM/EXTENDED...99
AVIATION...MASEK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS NORTH PLATTE NE

536 AM CST WED JAN 18 2012

.UPDATE...

.AVIATION...
VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z. THEREAFTER AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL BEGIN
MOVING SOUTH THROUGH NRN NEB PRODUCING MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR CIGS.
NOTE THAT THERE IS TIMING UNCERTAINTIES WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE
MVFR AND IT COULD BEGIN AS EARLY AS 21Z BASED ON THE RUC MODEL.

THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS SHOULD DROP AS FAR
SOUTH AS KOGA AND KIML BY 12Z THURSDAY. LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE AS
THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH.

WINDS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 27030G40KT ACROSS THE
SANDHILLS...MAINLY THE WRN SANDHILLS WITH LESSER SPEEDS EAST THROUGH
KTIF AND KBBW.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 AM CST WED JAN 18 2012/

UPDATE...

SHORT TERM...
BEST GUESS ON THE WIND SPEEDS TODAY AS DISCUSSED BELOW SUGGESTED
ADDING A FEW COUNTIES TO THE WIND ADVISORY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 AM CST WED JAN 18 2012/

WINDS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 27030G40KT ACROSS THE
SANDHILLS...MAINLY THE WRN SANDHILLS WITH LESSER SPEEDS EAST THROUGH
KTIF AND KBBW.

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON
FOR NEZ004-022-023-035-056-057.

SHORT TERM/EXTENDED...JACOBS
AVIATION...CDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BINGHAMTON NY

1032 PM EST THU JAN 19 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SNOW SQUALLS TO THE REGION TONIGHT AND
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. FRIDAY NIGHT, A STRONGER STORM WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS STORM WILL BRING MODERATE
ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE SOUTHERN TIER AND CATSKILLS OF NEW YORK,
AND NORTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
10 PM UPDATE...SOME BIG CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE. FIRST OFF...WE
GOT A REPORT OF 8" OF SNOW IN BOONVILLE FROM A SPOTTER THROUGH
FACEBOOK. WE CONFIRMED THIS AMOUNT WITH A FEW REPORTS OF AROUND 6"
IN THE SAME AREA. WITH CRITERIA FOR A WARNING BEING 7" IN 12 HOURS
OR 9" IN 24 HOURS...AND EXPECTING MORE SNOW DUE TO LAKE EFFECT
LATER TONIGHT...AN UPGRADE TO A WARNING WAS AN EASY CALL. TOUGHER
CALL ON WHAT TO CALL IT (LAKE EFFECT VS. WINTER STORM). AFTER
COORDINATION WITH BUFFALO AND ALBANY...DECIDED TO GO THE WINTER
STORM ROUTE SINCE THIS WOULD BE AN UPGRADE FROM THE ADVISORY WE
ALREADY HAD OUT...AND JUST MENTION THE TRANSITION TO LAKE EFFECT
SNOW IN THE PRODUCT ITSELF. FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST...AN AREA OF
SNOW HAS PRODUCED 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW IN ISOLATED AREAS OF
CORTLAND...CHENANGO...BROOME...DELAWARE COUNTIES ALONG WITH SOME
OF NEPA. THIS IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A
JET. THESE AREAS MAY APPROACH 4" IN ISOLATED AREA WITH ANOTHER
INCH EXPECTED OVERNIGHT FROM A SQUALL LINE...BUT THE AVERAGE FOR
THIS WHOLE AREA WILL BE CLOSER TO 1 TO 2 INCHES...THUS NO
ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED.

LAST BUT NOT LEAST...THE SQUALL LINE WE HAVE BEEN TRACKING IS NOW
MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL NY. THE LINE HAS HELD TOGETHER QUITE NICELY
AND WE STILL EXPECT A QUICK HALF TO 1.5 INCHES OF SNOW IN A BURST.
WE CONTINUE TO STRESS THAT THESE AMOUNTS ARE NOT HIGH BUT WILL
CREATE SLICK TRAVEL IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. THE PREVIOUS AFD IS
BELOW...

730 PM UPDATE...THE FORECAST IS IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE. SOME SNOW
HAS DEVELOPED NEAR THE BINGHAMTON AND NORWICH AREAS RECENTLY. THIS
IS RESPONSE TO A JET STREAK AT AROUND 400 MB ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
PA. THE SNOW OVER CENTRAL PA IS BEING CAUSED BY THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION TO THE JET...WITH OUR LIGHT SNOW BEING CAUSED BY THE LEFT
EXIT REGION. AS THIS JET STREAK SLIDES SOUTHEAST AND WEAKENS
THROUGH 9 PM...EXPECT THE SNOW TO DIMINISH AND MOVE EAST.

NOW TO THE REAL ACTION. AN INTENSE LINE OF SNOW CONTINUES TO MARCH
EAST ACROSS WESTERN NY AND IS JUST ON THE DOORSTEPS OF OUR AREA.
OUR FIRST SPS HAS BEEN ISSUED AND WE WILL LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO
ISSUE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS THROUGH MIDNIGHT AS THE LINE HEADS
EAST. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR SO ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE
LINE...BUT IT WILL BE THE FACT THAT THE SNOW WILL FALL IN SUCH A
SHORT PERIOD OF TIME THAT IS CAUSE FOR CONCERN. ROUGH TIMING IS
BETWEEN 8 PM AND 10 PM FOR THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA...ALONG
I-81 IN NY BETWEEN 10 PM AND MIDNIGHT...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA
BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 3 AM. THE MODELS DO SHOW THE LINE WEAKENING A
BIT AS IT MARCHES EAST...SO WE MAY SEE THE BIGGEST IMPACT TO OUR
CWA COMING BETWEEN NOW AND MIDNIGHT. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS
IN GOOD SHAPE REGARDING THE TRANSITION TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW LATER
TONIGHT. THE PREVIOUS AFD IS BELOW...

EVENT #1 IS VISIBLE ON RADAR, WITH BUF SHOWING ENHANCED RETURNS
OVER THE WESTERN EDGE OF LAKE ONTARIO. THIS SHARP COLD FRONT IS
WELL DEPICTED BY THE LATEST RUC13 LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES, AND WE
ARE USING THIS MESOSCALE MODEL TO FORECAST A POTENTIAL SQUALL
MOVING THROUGH THE FINGER LAKES AND CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER BY 2-4Z.

BASED ON CURRENT RADAR UPSTREAM AND THE STEEP LAPSE RATES, I CAN
SEE A QUICK INCH OR TWO FROM THIS SQUALL ALONE BEING POSSIBLE. WE
WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS FOR A POTENTIAL SPS TONIGHT.

ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH, WINDS SHIFT OFF THE LAKE
OVERNIGHT AND BRING A SOLID 2 TO 4 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL SNOW TO
NORTHERN ONEIDA.

NOW BELIEVE THE BAND WILL AFFECT EXTREME NORTHERN ONONDAGA,
NORTHWESTERN MADISON, AND SOUTHWESTERN ONEIDA WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES
OF SNOW. THIS ON TOP OF THE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SYNOPTIC SNOWFALL
JUSTIFIES AN ADVISORY, THOUGH ONLY A SMALL PORTION OF THE NEW
ADVISORY COUNTIES WILL BE AFFECTED.

A COMBINATION OF SHEAR AND DECREASING LAPSE RATES IN ASSOCIATION
WITH FAST APPROACHING ANTICYCLONE WILL KILL OFF THE LAKE MACHINE
BY MID MORNING. A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY PERSIST INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON, BUT THE ADVISORY WILL NO LONGER BE NEEDED.

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EVENT #2 HAS A STORM SYSTEM SLIDING THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. GFS REMAINS THE QUICKEST TO
MOVE SNOW IN FRIDAY EVENING, WITH THE EURO AND NAM A FEW HOURS
SLOWER. HOWEVER THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN STORM TRACK, STRENGTH,
AND QPF.

THE MODELS WERE COLDER THIS MORNING, BUT THE TREND ALL WINTER HAS
BEEN FOR THE MODELS TO BRING THE STORM CENTERS TO THE NORTH IN THE
FINAL RUNS, WITH WARM AIR ENCROACHING FROM THE SOUTH. THERE ARE
SOME HINTS THAT SOME SLEET COULD MIX IN WITH THE SNOW OVER OUR FAR
SOUTHERN FA, BUT RIGHT NOW THE MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE MOST INDICATIVE
OF SNOW.

THE MODEL QPF LOOKS A LITTLE ON THE HIGH SIDE. HOWEVER EVEN WITH A
REDUCTION IN QPF WE ARE VERY CLOSE TO ADVISORY ACCUMS OVER THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FA.

THE STORM PULLS OUT QUICKEST ON THE GFS, WITH THE EURO AND NAM
AGAIN A FEW HOURS SLOWER. EITHER WAY THE EVENT SHOULD BE DONE BY
LATE AFTERNOON SATURDAY, IF NOT SOONER. WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO A
NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION, SO IT DOES NOT APPEAR AS THOUGH OUR FA
WILL BE DEALING WITH POST EVENT LAKE SNOWS.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
330 PM UPDATE...
HGTS BLD SUN NGT WITH MID AND LL WAA AHD OF A WRN LAKES LOW. LGT
PCPN SEEM PSBL WITH MUCH UNCERTAINTY ABT THE TEMP PROFILE. MIXED
PCPN SEEMS LIKELY WITH SFC TEMPS NEAR OR BLO FRZG...SO SOME FRZG
RAIN PSBL. LOW MVES SLWLY EAST AS AN OCCLUDED FNT RACES EWRD THRU
THE OH VLY AND WRN NY. TIMING PUSHES THE FNT THRU THE AREA MON
EVE...BUT WITH MODIFIED COLD AIR PUSHING IN FROM THE SW...DO NOT
XPCT A DRAMATIC TEMP DROP LATE MON INTO TUE. UPR LOW LIFTS NORTH
TUE AS THE TROF AXIS PASSES. AIR IS JUST NOT THAT COLD WITH H8
TEMPS FCSTD IN THE -6C TO -8C RANGE. XPCT SOME MOISTURE WITH THE
UPR TROF AND SOME MRGNL LE SNOW SHWRS INTO WED. LATE WED A SFC HI
OVER THE OH VLY BLDS IN BUT WITH ZONAL FLOW OVER THE FCST
AREA...TEMPS RATHER NEUTRAL AND WITH A WEAK SFC TROF AND APRCHG
WC...JUST SOME LGT PCPN IN THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE PD.

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
630 PM UPDATE...
COLD FRONT IN WRN NY WILL CROSS THROUGH THE TAF SITES BETWEEN 2
AND 5Z. WITH THIS WILL BE IFR MODERATE SNOW FOR UP TO AN HOUR.
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT IS SOME MVFR VSBY AND CIG SNOW SHOWERS.
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE LAKE EFFECT FOR CENTRAL NY. RME SHOULD
STAY WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS MOST OF THE NIGHT. THIS SINGLE BAND
WILL SHIFT SOUTH THROUGH SYR BETWEEN 9 AND 15Z. ITH AND BGM SHOULD
HAVE SOME MVFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OFF OF LAKE
ONTARIO AND THE FINGER LAKES LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN DURING THE AFTN SHUTTING DOWN THE LAKE
EFFECT AND RETURNING ALL SITES TO VFR BY 19Z AND REMAINING VFR
THROUGH MOST OF THE EVENING.

S WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KTS SHIFTING TO SW JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT THEN
TO THE W AND NW BEHIND THE FRONT. LATE FRI AFTN WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

.OUTLOOK...

FRI NGT...VFR BECOMING IFR AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD SNOW
MOVES IN.

SAT...IFR IN SNOW DURING THE MORNING IMPROVING TO VFR DURING THE
AFTN.

SAT NGT AND SUN...MAINLY VFR.

SUN NGT TO MON NGT..MVFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN OR SNOW.

TUE...MVFR IN SNOW SHWRS

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ018-036-
037.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ009.

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP/HEDEN
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...TAC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BINGHAMTON NY

730 PM EST THU JAN 19 2012

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
730 PM UPDATE...THE FORECAST IS IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE. SOME SNOW
HAS DEVELOPED NEAR THE BINGHAMTON AND NORWICH AREAS RECENTLY. THIS
IS RESPONSE TO A JET STREAK AT AROUND 400 MB ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
PA. THE SNOW OVER CENTRAL PA IS BEING CAUSED BY THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION TO THE JET...WITH OUR LIGHT SNOW BEING CAUSED BY THE LEFT
EXIT REGION. AS THIS JET STREAK SLIDES SOUTHEAST AND WEAKENS
THROUGH 9 PM...EXPECT THE SNOW TO DIMINISH AND MOVE EAST.

BASED ON CURRENT RADAR UPSTREAM AND THE STEEP LAPSE RATES, I CAN
SEE A QUICK INCH OR TWO FROM THIS SQUALL ALONE BEING POSSIBLE. WE
WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS FOR A POTENTIAL SPS TONIGHT.

ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH, WINDS SHIFT OFF THE LAKE
OVERNIGHT AND BRING A SOLID 2 TO 4 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL SNOW TO
NORTHERN ONEIDA.

THE MODEL QPF LOOKS A LITTLE ON THE HIGH SIDE. HOWEVER EVEN WITH A
REDUCTION IN QPF WE ARE VERY CLOSE TO ADVISORY ACCUMS OVER THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FA.

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
630 PM UPDATE...
COLD FRONT IN WRN NY WILL CROSS THROUGH THE TAF SITES BETWEEN 2
AND 5Z. WITH THIS WILL BE IFR MODERATE SNOW FOR UP TO AN HOUR.
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT IS SOME MVFR VSBY AND CIG SNOW SHOWERS.
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE LAKE EFFECT FOR CENTRAL NY. RME SHOULD
STAY WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS MOST OF THE NIGHT. THIS SINGLE BAND
WILL SHIFT SOUTH THROUGH SYR BETWEEN 9 AND 15Z. ITH AND BGM SHOULD
HAVE SOME MVFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OFF OF LAKE
ONTARIO AND THE FINGER LAKES LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN DURING THE AFTN SHUTTING DOWN THE LAKE
EFFECT AND RETURNING ALL SITES TO VFR BY 19Z AND REMAINING VFR
THROUGH MOST OF THE EVENING.

S WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KTS SHIFTING TO SW JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT THEN
TO THE W AND NW BEHIND THE FRONT. LATE FRI AFTN WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

.OUTLOOK...

FRI NGT...VFR BECOMING IFR AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD SNOW
MOVES IN.

SAT...IFR IN SNOW DURING THE MORNING IMPROVING TO VFR DURING THE
AFTN.

SAT NGT AND SUN...MAINLY VFR.

SUN NGT TO MON NGT..MVFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN OR SNOW.

TUE...MVFR IN SNOW SHWRS

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ018-036-
037.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ009.

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP/HEDEN
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...TAC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BINGHAMTON NY

658 PM EST THU JAN 19 2012

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EVENT #1 IS VISIBLE ON RADAR, WITH BUF SHOWING ENHANCED RETURNS
OVER THE WESTERN EDGE OF LAKE ONTARIO. THIS SHARP COLD FRONT IS
WELL DEPICTED BY THE LATEST RUC13 LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES, AND WE
ARE USING THIS MESOSCALE MODEL TO FORECAST A POTENTIAL SQUALL
MOVING THROUGH THE FINGER LAKES AND CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER BY 2-4Z.

BASED ON CURRENT RADAR UPSTREAM AND THE STEEP LAPSE RATES, I CAN
SEE A QUICK INCH OR TWO FROM THIS SQUALL ALONE BEING POSSIBLE. WE
WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS FOR A POTENTIAL SPS TONIGHT.

ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH, WINDS SHIFT OFF THE LAKE
OVERNIGHT AND BRING A SOLID 2 TO 4 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL SNOW TO
NORTHERN ONEIDA.

THE MODEL QPF LOOKS A LITTLE ON THE HIGH SIDE. HOWEVER EVEN WITH A
REDUCTION IN QPF WE ARE VERY CLOSE TO ADVISORY ACCUMS OVER THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FA.

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
630 PM UPDATE...
COLD FRONT IN WRN NY WILL CROSS THROUGH THE TAF SITES BETWEEN 2
AND 5Z. WITH THIS WILL BE IFR MODERATE SNOW FOR UP TO AN HOUR.
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT IS SOME MVFR VSBY AND CIG SNOW SHOWERS.
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE LAKE EFFECT FOR CENTRAL NY. RME SHOULD
STAY WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS MOST OF THE NIGHT. THIS SINGLE BAND
WILL SHIFT SOUTH THROUGH SYR BETWEEN 9 AND 15Z. ITH AND BGM SHOULD
HAVE SOME MVFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OFF OF LAKE
ONTARIO AND THE FINGER LAKES LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN DURING THE AFTN SHUTTING DOWN THE LAKE
EFFECT AND RETURNING ALL SITES TO VFR BY 19Z AND REMAINING VFR
THROUGH MOST OF THE EVENING.

S WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KTS SHIFTING TO SW JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT THEN
TO THE W AND NW BEHIND THE FRONT. LATE FRI AFTN WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

.OUTLOOK...

FRI NGT...VFR BECOMING IFR AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD SNOW
MOVES IN.

SAT...IFR IN SNOW DURING THE MORNING IMPROVING TO VFR DURING THE
AFTN.

SAT NGT AND SUN...MAINLY VFR.

SUN NGT TO MON NGT..MVFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN OR SNOW.

TUE...MVFR IN SNOW SHWRS

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ018-036-
037.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ009.

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...TAC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON NC

640 AM EST WED JAN 18 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. A WEAK
FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE AREA FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP TO OUR WEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
NEXT WEEK WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 630 AM WEDNESDAY...THE STRONG COLD FRONT SHOWS UP VERY WELL ON
DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY...EXTENDING FROM LUMBERTON THROUGH DILLON AND
DARLINGTON. THE BOUNDARY SHOULD CONTINUE MAKING GOOD SOUTHEASTWARD
PROGRESS THIS MORNING AND WILL BE OFFSHORE BY 11 AM. SHOWER ACTIVITY
HAS BECOME MORE SCATTERED IN COVERAGE ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA BUT A
CONCENTRATED BATCH OF RAIN IS SET TO MOVE EAST ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA IN THE NEXT TWO HOURS. TODAY`S HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
ESSENTIALLY WHAT YOU HAVE ON THE THERMOMETER RIGHT NOW: UPPER 50S
MOST AREAS. BEHIND THE FRONT TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER
50S BY EARLY AFTERNOON...FLAT-LINING THROUGH 4 PM OR SO...THEN
FALLING PRECIPITOUSLY TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES ALMOST
OVERHEAD LATE.

WE HAVE USED THE LATEST HRRR AND RUC MODELS TO HELP ADJUST THE
FRONTAL TIMING IN THE FORECAST GRIDS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THE
HRRR HAS BEEN PARTICULARLY USEFUL SHOWING THE INCREASING NE-SW
ORIENTATION THE FRONT HAS TAKEN OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. THIS MEANS
GEORGETOWN WILL PROBABLY THE LAST LOCATION IN OUR FORECAST AREA TO
SEE THE FRONT PUSH THROUGH...POSSIBLY AS LATE AS 11 AM TO NOON.
SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...REMAINING MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT EXCEPT FOR INCREASING
THIN CIRRUS LATE.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...PROGRESSIVE WEATHER PATTERN SFC AND ALOFT TO
RULE THE SHORT TERM. THE ILM CWA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
LOW AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE TROF THU WHICH WILL TRANSLATE TO MORE OF A
WEST TO EAST ZONAL FLOW AT 5H BY FRIDAY NIGHT. AT THE SFC...WEAK SFC
RIDGING TO SLIDE OFF THE SE U.S. COAST BY EARLY FRIDAY...ALLOWING A
WEAK BUT DRY COLD FRONT TO APPROACH LATE THU NITE AND PUSH ACROSS
THE ILM CWA BEFORE STALLING SOUTH OF THE FA AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL
TO THE UPPER FLOW. THE NAM SEEMS LIKE THE OUTLIER BY STALLING THE
FRONT ACROSS THE FA WHEREAS THE GFS AND EUROPEAN SLIDE IT FAR ENOUGH
SOUTH B4 STALLING. MODELS HINT AT WEAK WEDGE-ING POSSIBLE FRIDAY
NIGHT. DUE TO THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE FLOW ESPECIALLY
ALOFT...WILL NOT BUY THIS SOLUTION. WILL STAY AT OR SLITELY COOLER
THAN GFS MOS GUIDANCE THRU THE SHORT TERM...WHICH BASICALLY RIGHT AT
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...THE LONG TERM WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED WITH
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AT THE START...TRANSLATING TO A LOW AMPLITUDE
LONGWAVE UPPER TROF BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. GFS A BIT MORE
VIGOROUS THAN THE EUROPEAN WITH A 5H S/W TROF FROM THE DESERT SW
THAT TRACKS ENE AND INTERACTS WITH THE STALLED FRONT BY PRODUCING AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ON THE FRONT. EUROPEAN AND GFS KEEP THE ACTUAL
SFC LOW INLAND AND NORTH OF THE ILM CWA AS IT MOVES NE OF THE FA BY
SUNDAY. LOOK FOR ITS ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT TO DROP AND STALL
ACROSS OR JUST SOUTH OF THE ILM CWA. HAVE INDICATED DECENT CHANCE
POPS DURING THE LOWS PASSAGE AND AHEAD OF ITS COLD FRONT DURING
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. NO PCPN TYPE ISSUES WITH TEMPS ON THE
MILD SIDE. AS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...POTENTIAL FOR BLOWN FORECAST TO
EXIST WITH A STATIONARY SFC FRONT TO LIE ACROSS OR JUST SOUTH OF THE
ILM CWA...WITH LONG-TERM MODELS INDICATING A POTENTIAL SFC LOW TO
TRACK ALONG AND AFFECT THE ILM CWA. FOR NOW...ONLY INDICATED 20-30
POPS LATE SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY AND WILL AWAIT FURTHER MODEL
CONSENSUS. EITHER SIDE OF THE STATIONARY FRONT COULD SEE A 20 DEGREE
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENTIAL. FOR NOW...STAYED ON THE MILDER/WARMER SIDE
OF GUIDANCE WHICH KEEPS TEMPS ABOVE CLIMO NORMS. COULD EVEN SEE 70+
DEGREE READINGS ON MONDAY AND/OR TUESDAY IF THE FA REMAINS ON THE
SOUTH SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...FRONTAL BOUNDARY POISED JUST WEST OF THE CWA...AND WILL
BE BLASTING THROUGH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...LOOK FOR GUSTY SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH INTERMITTENT MVFR/NEAR
IFR CONDITIONS...PARTICULARLY AT THE WESTERN TERMINALS. LOOK FOR
FROPA FROM 12-13Z INLAND...AND AROUND 14Z AT THE COAST. BEHIND THE
FRONT...CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO VFR...WITH A VEERING WIND
TO THE NORTH...GUSTY BY MID MORNING. SHOWERS MAY LINGER ALONG THE
COAST THROUGH 15Z...WITH VFR EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT...DIMINISHING NORTH WIND WITH SCATTERED SKIES.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SLIGHT CHANCE MVFR VISIBILITIES THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY MORNINGS. LOW CONFIDENCE FOR SHOWERS SATURDAY EVENING INTO
SUNDAY.

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM WEDNESDAY...WINDS/SEAS AND SHOWER COVERAGE MATCHES THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE NEEDED THIS MORNING.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 300 AM FOLLOWS...

A STRONG COLD FRONT IN THE WESTERN CAROLINAS WILL MOVE EAST AND OFF
THE COAST AROUND MID-MORNING. SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL ABRUPTLY SHIFT TO THE NORTH AS COLDER AIR POURS OFFSHORE BEHIND
THE FRONT. SO FAR THIS MORNING THE STRONGEST WINDS HAVE REMAINED
15-20+ MILES OFFSHORE WHERE WATER AND AIR TEMPERATURES ARE HIGHEST.
THE COOLER CONDITIONS NEARSHORE HELP INSULATE THE OCEAN SURFACE FROM
MUCH STRONGER WINDS ONLY 500-1000 FEET UP. THIS REDUCTION IN WIND IS
ALSO PRODUCING MUCH LOWER SEA HEIGHTS THAN ONE MIGHT EXPECT AHEAD OF
SUCH A STRONG FRONT. NORTH WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME
NORTHEAST TONIGHT WITH WIND SPEEDS REDUCING TO 15 KNOTS OR LESS AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA.

THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN POSTED THROUGH 1 PM FOR THE NC
WATERS...WITH AN EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINE FOR THE SC WATERS. THERE
IS SOME POTENTIAL THAT 20 KNOT WINDS MAY CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF
THE AFTERNOON WHICH MAY NECESSITATE AN EXTENSION OF THE EXERCISE
CAUTION HEADLINE. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TONIGHT WITH THE LIGHTER WIND
SPEEDS DEVELOPING.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...ELONGATED CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE TO
PROGRESS ACROSS THE ILM WATERS THURSDAY THEN SLIDE FURTHER EAST THU
NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT BASICALLY TO BACKDOOR THE ILM
WATERS FROM THE NORTH DURING FRIDAY BEFORE TEMPORARILY STALLING JUST
SOUTH OF THE WATERS LATE FRIDAY. MODELS INDICATE THE VEERING WIND
FROM LIGHT NE EARLY THURSDAY VEERING TO THE SW AHEAD OF THE FRONT
THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HAVE TONED DOWN THE SW WIND SPEEDS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT DUE TO WAA WINDS PUSHING ACROSS SSTS IN THE 50S...WHICH
WILL WILL HAVE DIFFICULTY MIXING DOWN TO THE OCEAN SFC. WILL HAVE TO
RELY ON THE TEMPORARILY TIGHTENING OF THE SFC PG TO GET THESE HIER
WINDS BY EARLY FRI. AS FOR SEAS...AN EASTERLY 8-10 SECOND 1-2 FOOT
GROUND SWELL WILL OCCASIONALLY MIX WITH WEAK NE WIND WAVES
THURSDAY...THEN BECOME MORE DOMINATED BY SW WIND DRIVEN SHORT PERIOD
WAVES THU NITE INTO FRIDAY. OVERALL...WINDS AND SEAS TO STAY BELOW
SCA THRESHOLDS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY THE STALLED FRONT
TO MEANDER ACROSS THE ILM WATERS AND INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR A
BUSTED FORECAST. FOR THE MOST PART...INDICATED THE STALLED FRONT
RETURNING NORTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY RESULTING WITH INCREASING SW
WINDS. THE LAST SFC LOW TO EXIT NE OF THE ILM CWA LATE
SUNDAY...ALLOWING THE COLD FRONT TO DRIFT BACK TO THE SOUTH LATE
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. MODELS DIFFER ON THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT
AS WELL AS WHERE THE FINAL RESTING GROUND OF THE COLD FRONT. WILL
INDICATE INCREASING SEAS FROM SW WINDS...JUST NOT AS LARGE AS
WAVEWATCH3 GUIDANCE INDICATES. HAVE LEANED CLOSER TO SWAN DUE TO
BETTER HANDLE OF WAA WINDS OVER COOLER SHELF WATERS. WILL HAVE
BORDERLINE SCEC OR SCA CONDITIONS LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ250-252.

NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...DCH
LONG TERM...DCH
AVIATION...HDL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON NC

300 AM EST WED JAN 18 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. SHOWERS AND AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM COULD PRECEDE THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE AREA LATE TODAY AND THURSDAY...BRINGING DRY AND
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. A WEAK FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE AREA
LATE FRIDAY BEFORE TEMPORARILY STALLING. AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
RIDE E TO NE ALONG THE FRONT KEEPING THE AREA UNSETTLED INTO THE
WEEKEND. WITH THE FRONT STALLED NORTH OF THE AREA INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...THE AREA WILL EXPERIENCE 70 PLUS DEGREE HIGHS DURING EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE FRONT WILL FINALLY DROP SOUTH OF THE AREA BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT CURRENTLY IN THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT OF THE CAROLINAS WILL SWEEP EAST AND OFFSHORE
BEFORE NOON. THE MILD AIRMASS WE HAVE ENJOYED FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS
WILL BE PUSHED OFFSHORE...REPLACED BY MUCH COLDER AIR ORIGINATING
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST STATES. UNTIL THE FRONT ARRIVES...WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE WITH STORM-TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS AVERAGING A
THIRD OF AN INCH.

THE TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL BE OF TREMENDOUS IMPORTANCE IN OUR HIGH
TEMPERATURE FORECASTS FOR TODAY. FOR NWS VERIFICATION PURPOSES THE
HIGH TEMPERATURE IS DEFINED AS THE HIGHEST READING OBSERVED WITHIN
THE 12Z-00Z WINDOW...OR 7AM-7PM. SINCE THE FRONT WILL BE VERY NEAR
BOTH LBT AND FLO AT 7 AM THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT POTENTIAL TO BUST
THE HIGH AT THESE TWO LOCATIONS. THE 04Z AND 05Z HRRR RUNS APPEAR TO
BE VERIFYING VERY WELL WITH THE FRONTAL POSITION TO OUR WEST...AND
BOTH ARE ABOUT AN HOUR SLOWER THAN THE POSITION FORECAST BY THE 00Z
GFS. GFS LAMP GUIDANCE (SORT OF A RAPID-UPDATE MOS ADJUSTING THE
LATEST GFS RUN EACH HOUR) ALSO IMPLIES A SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE
FRONT WITH ITS WIND SHIFT TIMING AT LBT AND FLO. WE ARE THEREFORE
FORECASTING HIGHS SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE AT ALL SITES
TODAY...PARTICULARLY EAST OF I-95. AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CRASH INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

EVEN WITH GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES THIS AFTERNOON COLD ADVECTION
WILL OFFSET MUCH OF OUR INSOLATION...WITH A NEARLY STEADY
TEMPERATURE CURVE EXPECTED NOON THROUGH 4 PM. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN
FALL PRECIPITOUSLY TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES ALMOST OVERHEAD
LATE. LOWS SHOULD GENERALLY REACH THE UPPER 20S AWAY FROM THE COAST.
ONE FACTOR THAT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING DEEP INTO THE
20S TONIGHT WILL BE SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS ADVECTING OVERHEAD. BOTH THE
00Z NAM AND GFS SHOW 200-400 MB LAYER AVERAGE RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN
THE 70-90 PERCENT RANGE PERIODICALLY AFTER 03Z THIS EVENING.

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...EXPECT GRADUALLY DETERIORATING CONDITIONS DUE TO SHOWERS
AND LOWERED VISIBILITY/CIGS WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CURRENT
RADAR DEPICTS AN AREA OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE INLAND SITES...WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY APPROACHING THE
COASTAL SITES. LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN AND
OCCASIONALLY LOWER INTO THE LOW MVFR RANGE...PERSISTING UNTIL THE
FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE AREA 12-15Z WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH WINDS 12G18 KTS.

TIME-HEIGHT ANALYSIS...FCST SOUNDINGS AND OTHER MODEL GUIDANCE ALL
SUPPORT A DEEP LAYER OF MOISTURE UP THROUGH 18Z WED. THEREFORE
ANTICIPATE RAIN TO PERSIST INTO THE MORNING HOURS. WOULD ANTICIPATE
WITH HEAVIER RAIN THAT VISIBILITIES AND CIGS WILL DROP TO MVFR/NEAR
IFR STATUS AT MOST SITES. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME
REGARDING IFR STATUS. AS THE FROPA MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
MORNING...WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST TO GENERALLY NORTH...WITH
WINDS GUSTY. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BEHIND THE FRONT...BACK TO VFR
BY THIS AFTERNOON. ANTICIPATE NORTH WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT AFTER
SUNSET.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SLIGHT CHANCE MVFR VISIBILITIES THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY MORNINGS. LOW CONFIDENCE FOR SHOWERS SATURDAY EVENING INTO
SUNDAY.

.MARINE...

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT IN THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS WILL MOVE EAST AND OFF THE COAST AROUND MID-MORNING.
SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL ABRUPTLY SHIFT TO THE NORTH
AS COLDER AIR POURS OFFSHORE BEHIND THE FRONT. SO FAR THIS MORNING
THE STRONGEST WINDS HAVE REMAINED 15-20+ MILES OFFSHORE WHERE WATER
AND AIR TEMPERATURES ARE HIGHEST. THE COOLER CONDITIONS NEARSHORE
HELP INSULATE THE OCEAN SURFACE FROM MUCH STRONGER WINDS ONLY
500-1000 FEET UP. THIS REDUCTION IN WIND IS ALSO PRODUCING MUCH
LOWER SEA HEIGHTS THAN ONE MIGHT EXPECT AHEAD OF SUCH A STRONG
FRONT. NORTH WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME NORTHEAST TONIGHT WITH
WIND SPEEDS REDUCING TO 15 KNOTS OR LESS AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO
NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA.

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...ELONGATED CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE TO
PROGRESS ACROSS THE ILM WATERS THURSDAY THEN SLIDE FURTHER EAST THU
NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT BASICALLY TO BACKDOOR THE ILM
WATERS FROM THE NORTH DURING FRIDAY BEFORE TEMPORARILY STALLING JUST
SOUTH OF THE WATERS LATE FRIDAY. MODELS INDICATE THE VEERING WIND
FROM LIGHT NE EARLY THURSDAY VEERING TO THE SW AHEAD OF THE FRONT
THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HAVE TONED DOWN THE SW WIND SPEEDS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT DUE TO WAA WINDS PUSHING ACROSS SSTS IN THE 50S...WHICH
WILL WILL HAVE DIFFICULTY MIXING DOWN TO THE OCEAN SFC. WILL HAVE TO
RELY ON THE TEMPORARILY TIGHTENING OF THE SFC PG TO GET THESE HIER
WINDS BY EARLY FRI. AS FOR SEAS...AN EASTERLY 8-10 SECOND 1-2 FOOT
GROUND SWELL WILL OCCASIONALLY MIX WITH WEAK NE WIND WAVES
THURSDAY...THEN BECOME MORE DOMINATED BY SW WIND DRIVEN SHORT PERIOD
WAVES THU NITE INTO FRIDAY. OVERALL...WINDS AND SEAS TO STAY BELOW
SCA THRESHOLDS.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY THE STALLED FRONT
TO MEANDER ACROSS THE ILM WATERS AND INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR A
BUSTED FORECAST. FOR THE MOST PART...INDICATED THE STALLED FRONT
RETURNING NORTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY RESULTING WITH INCREASING SW
WINDS. THE LAST SFC LOW TO EXIT NE OF THE ILM CWA LATE
SUNDAY...ALLOWING THE COLD FRONT TO DRIFT BACK TO THE SOUTH LATE
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. MODELS DIFFER ON THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT
AS WELL AS WHERE THE FINAL RESTING GROUND OF THE COLD FRONT. WILL
INDICATE INCREASING SEAS FROM SW WINDS...JUST NOT AS LARGE AS
WAVEWATCH3 GUIDANCE INDICATES. HAVE LEANED CLOSER TO SWAN DUE TO
BETTER HANDLE OF WAA WINDS OVER COOLER SHELF WATERS. WILL HAVE
BORDERLINE SCEC OR SCA CONDITIONS LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ250-252.

NEAR TERM...TRARMSTRONG
SHORT TERM...DOUGCH
LONG TERM...DOUGCH
AVIATION...TRARMSTRONG/SGLACORTE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON OH

629 AM EST WED JAN 18 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL THE WEATHER OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
TODAY...WITH SNOW SHOWERS TAPERING OFF BY LATE MORNING. LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT
PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOW FOR THE REGION. ANOTHER WEATHER
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES HAVE PERSISTED OVER THE REGION A BIT
LONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED...AND CERTAINLY LONGER THAN
DEPICTED BY THE PRIMARY SUITE OF MODELS. THE HRRR WAS HELPFUL IN
DETERMINING THE EXTENT OF THE REMAINING SNOWFALL...AND ITS GRADUAL
DIMINISHING OVER THE COURSE OF THE MORNING.

SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST...AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES INTO THE AREA AND GETS STRETCHED OUT SW-TO-NE. THE COOL AIR
MASS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM RISING SIGNIFICANTLY...WITH HIGHS
IN THE FORECAST ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGY. WINDS WILL
SHIFT FROM NW (COLD ADVECTION) TO SW (WARM ADVECTION) LATE IN THE
DAY...BUT NOT SOON ENOUGH TO RAISE TEMPERATURES IN THE AFTERNOON.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THERE ARE TWO MAIN CONCERNS FOR THE SHORT TERM OF THE FORECAST.
THE FIRST IS A COLD FRONT WITH SNOW ON THURSDAY...AND THE SECOND
IS A SYSTEM BRINGING MIXED PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY.

WARM ADVECTION WILL BEGIN TONIGHT ON SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE SOUTHWEST FROM THE GREAT LAKES...AND WHILE THE FRONT IS
SOMEWHAT STRONG WITH REGARDS TO THE TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT...FORCING AND MOISTURE OVER THE CWA APPEAR TO BE
MARGINAL. THE BETTER FORCING APPEARS TO SET UP OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF (ESPECIALLY THE NORTHEASTERN QUARTER) OF THE CWA...WHERE THE
ORIENTATION OF THE FRONT IS A BIT MORE PERPENDICULAR TO ITS MOTION
VECTOR. IN ADDITION...TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL GET
WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A BIT OF MIXING WITH RAIN IN THE FAR SOUTH
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THUS...THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL TOTALS WILL BE
FORECAST IN THE NORTH...WITH AROUND AN INCH EXPECTED NEAR THE
NORTHERN BORDER. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED IN THE FAR
SOUTH.

WHILE LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY NOT ALLOW FOR TOTAL
CLEARING ON THURSDAY NIGHT...THE CENTER OF THE HIGH BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL BE OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS
(ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA) WILL BE A NEAR
CERTAINTY. IF CLEARING DEVELOPS IN SOME PLACES...THESE NUMBERS
COULD BE EVEN A LITTLE BIT HIGH.

IT IS BEGINNING TO APPEAR THAT THE WEATHER DISTURBANCE FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY WILL HAVE A RESPECTABLE IMPACT FOR THE
AREA...INCLUDING A MIX OF PRECIPITATION TYPES. HOWEVER...THERE ARE
STILL SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT...REGARDING
BOTH THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW. THESE
DIFFERENCES PRECLUDE MAKING AN EXTREMELY SPECIFIC OR DETERMINISTIC
FORECAST. HOWEVER...WHAT HAS BECOME CLEAR IS THAT THERE WILL BE A
ZONE OF A RELATIVELY DEEP LAYER (100 MB OR A FEW THOUSAND FEET AT
LEAST) OF TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING ABOVE THE SURFACE...WITH
TEMPS IN THE LOWER 30S TO UPPER 20S AT THE GROUND. AT THIS
TIME...THE ECMWF IS FORECASTING A STRONGER SURFACE LOW...WARMER
TEMPERATURES...AND A TIMING DIFFERENCE (FASTER) OF ABOUT SIX HOURS
AS COMPARED TO THE GFS. WITH VARYING DEGREES OF AGREEMENT (OR
DISAGREEMENT) BETWEEN SOME OF THE OTHER MODELS...WILL KEEP THINGS
RATHER GENERAL AND PROBABILISTIC IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW.

IN MAKING THE FIRST ATTEMPT TO INCLUDE THESE MIXED PRECIPITATION
ELEMENTS IN THE GRIDS...A TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN ALL-RAIN AND
ALL-SNOW ELEMENTS HAS BEEN INCLUDED ROUGHLY COINCIDENT WITH
SURFACE TEMPS BETWEEN 28 AND 32 DEGREES. THUS...THE BEST
INDICATIONS AT THIS TIME ARE THAT THE MIX ZONE WILL CUT THROUGH
THE CENTER OF THE CWA...WITH ALL RAIN POSSIBLE SOUTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER AND ALL SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE FAR NORTHWEST. THE EXACT
PLACEMENT AND TIMING (AND EVENTUALLY...MAGNITUDE) OF THE
TRANSITIONAL ZONE WILL BE ABLE TO BE REFINED ONCE MODEL AGREEMENT
IMPROVES. THE SNOW NORTH OF THE TRANSITION ZONE WILL LIKELY BE OF
THE ACCUMULATING NATURE.

AS THE PRECIPITATION PULLS OUT OF THE REGION...THE WARM AIR ALOFT
WILL DEPART BEFORE ALL OF THE SUB-FREEZING AIR AT THE SURFACE IS
IN PLACE. THUS...THE TRANSITION ON THE BACK EDGE OF THE SYSTEM
SHOULD JUST BE RAIN TO SNOW.

NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURES WERE RUN THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
ADVECTION DOMINATING THE RADIATIONAL COMPONENTS OF THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST. THIS WAS MOST NECESSARY FOR THURSDAY...AND FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A ZONAL FLOW REGIME SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL FEATURE A LACK OF
WEATHER PRODUCING SYSTEMS...SO KEPT POPS BELOW THE 25 PERCENT
THRESHOLD FOR MENTION OF PRECIP IN THE 3 TO 7 DAY FORECAST. DURING
THIS PERIOD...IT APPEARS THAT PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A
COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES WILL STAY OUT OF THE ILN AREA. SHOWERS ALONG
THE NEXT FRONTAL ZONE MAY ENTER THE AREA FROM THE WEST LATE ON
TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS
AVERAGING ABOUT 30. READINGS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE
THEREAFTER...REACHING AROUND 50 BY TUESDAY. THESE MILD FORECAST
TEMPS ARE ABOVE THE GFS BUT BELOW THE WARM ECMWF WHICH SUGGESTS
HIGHS IN THE 60S SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. CAA INDUCED
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE...BUT SHOULD SCATTER
OUT BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z. SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS AND
SCATTERED FLURRIES CAN BE EXPECTED EARLY ON.

FOR TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE OFF TO THE EAST
TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES AND MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. MID AND HIGH LVL
CLOUDINESS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE ON
THURSDAY. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...HATZOS
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...HICKMAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON OH

417 AM EST WED JAN 18 2012

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH 12Z.
THIS FEATURE COMBINED WITH CAA CROSSING OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM
WATERS OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL RESULT IN SOME FLURRIES AND
EMBEDDED SNOW SHOWERS. CONDITIONS SHOULD STAY MVFR FOR THE MOST
PART...BUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR VSBYS CAN NOT BE TOTALLY RULED
OUT IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS. AFTER THE DISTURBANCE DEPARTS TO THE
EAST...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME ANTICYCLONIC AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY SCATTER FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND MID
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS AND MVFR/IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY. MVFR/IFR
CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...HATZOS
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...HICKMAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PORTLAND OR

1046 PM PST TUE JAN 17 2012

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE TO NEAR ASTORIA BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE WEAKENING AND DRIFTING NORTH. THIS WILL
BRING VERY STRONG GUST WINDS TO THE COAST...THE CASCADES AND TO A
SMALLER EXTENT THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
SEVERAL MORE STORM SYSTEMS WILL BATTER THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

...URGENT NOTICE OF UPDATE...

THIS IS JUST A VERY QUICK UPDATE TO LET EVERYONE KNOW WE ARE IN THE
PROCESS OF UPGRADING TO A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE PORTLAND AND
VANCOUVER METRO AREA...AND OUR LOWLANDS TO THE NORTH. THE WARNING
WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY...AND THE APPROPRIATE ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE
MADE FOR THE FORECASTS.

SNOW HAS ALREADY ACCUMULATED UP TO AROUND AN INCH HERE AT THE OFFICE
IN NE PORTLAND AND LOCALLY UP TO 3 INCHES IN PARTS OF GRESHAM...
SEVERAL INCHES MORE ARE EXPECTED BEFORE CHANGEOVER TO RAIN OCCURS
WEDNESDAY MORNING. MUCH LESSER ACCUMULATIONS THUS FAR ON THE WEST
SIDE...BUT THEY ARE LIKELY TO START ACCUMULATING SOON. THIS IS
SHAPING UP TO BE A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER EVENT FOR
THE PORTLAND AND VANCOUVER METRO AREA.

.SHORT TERM...STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EXTENT OF
FINER DETAILS REGARDING THE POTENTIAL SNOW EVENT LATE TONIGHT.
STATING THE OBVIOUS...SNOWFALL TONIGHT WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON
ELEVATION AND HOW FAR NORTH ONE GETS. A MAJOR DRAWBACK PREVENTING
THIS FROM BEING A WIDESPREAD MAJOR SNOW EVENT IS THE LACK OF A COLD
AIR SOURCE. GRANTED...COLD AIR HAS WORKED ITS WAY INTO NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL WASHINGTON...BUT IT IS HAVING A HARD TIME MIGRATING SOUTH.
03Z TEMPS IN THE COLUMBIA BASIN WERE IN THE 30S...WHICH IS CERTAINLY
NOT FAVORABLE FOR DRAWING THE NEEDED COLD AIR THROUGH THE GORGE INTO
THE PORTLAND/VANCOUVER METRO AREA.

THE 00Z KSLE SOUNDING SHOWED ABOUT -4C AT 850 MB...WHICH WAS CLOSER
TO THE GFS FORECAST THAN THE NAM. ACTUALLY...THE GFS WAS A TOUCH TOO
WARM AND THE NAM A TAD COOL. RAPID UPDATE CYCLE (RUC) SOUNDING VIA
BUFKIT FOR KPDX INDICATES SNOW FROM ABOUT 07Z-16Z. THE RUC SOUNDING
FOR KSLE SHOWS ALL RAIN...WITH SNOW DOWN TO ABOUT 500 FEET. THUS...AS
HAS BEEN SAID THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...THERE IS A FINE LINE BETWEEN
THOSE THAT GET SOME SNOW AND THOSE THAT DO NOT. LOOK FOR OFFSHORE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW TO DEVELOP IN THE GORGE AROUND MIDNIGHT AND GET A
LITTLE STRONGER THROUGH THE LATE-NIGHT HOURS. NAM HAS THE SURFACE LOW
HEADED TOWARD ABOUT KTMK AT 15Z...BUT IT ENDS UP AT KAST
18Z-21Z...SIMILAR TO PAST COUPLE RUNS. STILL THINK THE OFFSHORE FLOW
WILL PULL JUST ENOUGH COLD AIR TO GIVE A PERIOD OF SNOW TO THE METRO
AREA...ESPECIALLY ABOVE 500 FEET. THE 12KM MM5-NAM SHOWS ABOUT 1 TO 4
INCHES FOR KPDX BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z...THEN EVERYTHING TURNS TO RAIN.
THE SAME MODEL SHOWS 1-2 INCH/HR...LOCALLY UP TO 3 IN/HR...SNOWFALL
RATES IN THE CASCADES. THE SKI AREAS HAVE ALREADY PICKED UP AROUND 2
FEET SINCE MON AFTERNOON (SEE PNS AND LSR). POINTS SOUTH OF SALEM
WILL LIKELY SEE LITTLE TO NO SNOW. THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH WILLAMETTE
VALLEY ABOVE 500 TO 1000 FEET WILL GET SOME OVERNIGHT...BUT IT WILL
NOT LAST LONG.

LATEST AVAILABLE MODELS MAINTAIN AN ABRUPT SHIFT TO STRONG SOUTH
LOW-LEVEL FLOW WED. THE CURRENT WIND WARNINGS REMAIN ON TRACK.
INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE RUC SOUNDING FOR KSLE VALID 17Z HAS SW
WIND OF 50 KTS AT 2100 FT...AND UP TO 80 KT AT 5000 FT. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE 100 MPH AT THE 7000 FT TIMBERLINE LODGE SENSOR.
ELSEWHERE...SOUTH WIND WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN ALONG THE CENTRAL
COAST AROUND MIDNIGHT...THEN SPREAD NORTH OVERNIGHT AND EARLY WED
MORNING. STILL LOOKS LIKE HIGH-END WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY WED...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF SALEM. THE LATEST MET
GUIDANCE SHOWS SUSTAINED WIND OF 28 KT FOR KSLE AT 18Z.

ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE THE QPF. AMSU TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
WERE AROUND 2.0 INCHES OUT AT 40N/144W. LATEST GFS HAS 6-HR RAINFALL
UP TO AN INCH ALONG THE COAST 06Z-12Z WED AND UP TO 2 INCHES 12Z-18Z.
COMBINE THAT WITH 60-75 KT 850 MB SWLY FLOW...THE OROGRAPHIC
COMPONENT SHOULD BE TREMENDOUS. BY 00Z THU THE CASCADE SNOW LEVELS
WILL BE UP ABOVE 3500 FEET...EXCEPT FOR THE S WA CASCADES AND EXTREME
N OREGON CASCADES CLOSEST TO THE GORGE. BY 06Z THU SNOW LEVELS GO UP
TO 4000 FEET NEAR MT. HOOD TO OVER 7000 FEET IN THE LANE COUNTY
CASCADES. THE NAM SHOWS ANOTHER SYSTEM DEVELOPING ALONG THE LEFT-OVER
BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER SWRN OREGON AND NRN CA THU WILL IMPACT THE
FORECAST AREA THU. WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...SEVERAL
SIGNIFICANT STORMS WILL TRACK OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH MUCH
FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. SNOW LEVELS REMAIN WELL ABOVE 3000 FEET WITH
THE SYSTEM THE MOVES THROUGH LATE FRIDAY...MAINTAINING HEAVY RAIN
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA INTO SATURDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES
LATE SATURDAY... BRINGING A THREAT FOR STRONG WINDS ALONG THE COAST
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP WITH
THIS SYSTEM...SO AREAS ABOVE ABOUT 1500 TO 2000 FEET CAN EXPECT SNOW
THROUGH SUNDAY. MODERATE PRECIPITATION CONTINUES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
UNDER A WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN...WITH ANOTHER POSSIBLY STRONG SYSTEM
BY MONDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN ABUNDANT PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

WILL BE KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON ANY HYDRO ISSUES THAT WILL LIKELY
APPEAR BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS RISING RIVER LEVELS ARE A CONCERN.
BROWN

.AVIATION...STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING
WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS AND TRENDING TO IFR AS
PRECIPITATION PICKS UP LATER TONIGHT. LOCATIONS NORTH AND WEST OF
KPDX WILL SEE SNOW MIXED IN...AS WELL AS IN THE COLUMBIA RIVER
GORGE. BUT SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE NOW EASED AROUND PORTLAND AND
TROUTDALE...AND NOW WE ARE SEEING SNOW AT KTTD AND RAIN/SNOW AT
KPDX. FEEL PRETTY CONFIDENT THAT VALLEY LOCATIONS SOUTH OF AURORA OR
SO WILL REMAIN ALL RAIN TONIGHT. THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ARE THE VERY
STRONG WINDS EXPECTED AT THE COAST AND POTENTIALLY INLAND AS
WELL...THOUGH THE INLAND WINDS ARE LESS CERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONS TO ALL MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN DURING THE
DAY BEFORE EASING TOMORROW NIGHT...AND EXPECT ALL LOCATIONS EXCEPT
THE GORGE TO BE RAIN BY MIDDAY. EXPECT A MIX OF MVFR AND MORE LIKELY
IFR TO CONTINUE. OF ADDITIONAL CONCERN ARE THE STRONG SOUTHERLY
WINDS TOMORROW THAT WILL BE FOUND NOT ONLY AT THE COAST...BUT EXPECT
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS IN THE VALLEY...WITH THE STRONGEST VALLEY
WINDS FROM SALEM SOUTH.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...EXPECT A RAIN/SNOW MIX TO CONTINUE THIS
EVENING...AND THEREFORE VARYING CONDITIONS FROM MVFR TO
IFR...BEFORE HEAVY PRECIPITATION ARRIVES OVERNIGHT WITH
PREDOMINANT IFR REGARDLESS OF PRECIP TYPE. IT IS POSSIBLE TO SEE
ACCUMULATING SNOW AT THE TERMINAL MAINLY OVERNIGHT. LIKE MOST
STORMS IT WILL BE SPLITTING HAIRS TO DETERMINE IF IT WILL STICK AT
KPDX OR NOT. LATEST GUIDANCE HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH...BUT WE WILL
CONTINUE TO WATCH AS TROUTDALE IS NOW SEEING ALL SNOW AND FALLING
TEMPERATURES. IF COLD AIR LINGERS LONG ENOUGH THE WORST CASE
SCENARIO WOULD BE 4 PLUS INCHES WHILE MOST GUIDANCE POINTS TO 1 TO
3 INCHES OF VERY WET SLUSHY ACCUMULATION IF ANY BEFORE A CHANGE OVER
TO RAIN. THAT SAID...MOST GUIDANCE IS TOO WARM ON SFC TEMPS AND
DEWPOINTS AT THE MOMENT...AND HAVE INCREASED CONCERNS ON STICKING
SNOW...GIVEN HEAVIER PRECIP RATES OVERNIGHT. SNOW WILL BE FALLING
HARD AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 500 FT.

CONFIDENCE LOW ON SPECIFIC SOUTHERLY WINDS TOMORROW...BUT EXPECT
BREEZY CROSS RUNWAY WINDS. KMD/WOLFE

.MARINE...AFTER A RELATIVE LULL IN COASTAL WATERS WINDS THIS
EVENING...EXPECT
WINDS AND SEAS TO RAPIDLY INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NAM
AND GFS BOUNDARY LAYER WIND SPEED BOTH REACH 60-70 KT FOR A SHORT
TIME IN THE MORNING...AND WITH 925-850 MB WINDS IN THE 80+ KNOT
RANGE. SOLID STORM FORCE WINDS WITH A PERIOD OF HURRICANE FORCE
WINDS STILL ON TRACK.

STARTING WEDNESDAY MORNING MORNING A VERY STRONG SYSTEM ARRIVES AND
BRINGS WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 65 KTS TO A GOOD PORTION OF THE
CENTRAL OREGON COASTAL WATERS...SO HAVE ISSUED A HURRICANE FORCE
WIND WARNING FROM 4 AM UNTIL 1 PM PST FOR THE CENTRAL COASTAL
WATERS. THE CENTER OF LOW PRES LOOKS TO PASS RIGHT OVER ASTORIA.
THEREFORE THE NORTHERN WATERS LOOK TO ESCAPE THE STRONGEST WINDS
BUT WINDS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE STRONG STORM FORCE GUST ARENA
DUE TO THE LOW PLACEMENT...THERE MAY BE AREAS WHERE WINDS QUICKLY
SWITCH FROM STRONG OFFSHORE TO VERY STRONG SOUTHWEST. THIS IS AN
EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM. PLEASE TAKE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS!

WILL MAINTAIN A HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST
WEDNESDAY AND THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR TIDAL OVERFLOW FOR
BOTH THE NORTH AND CENTRAL OREGON COAST. HIGH TIDE IN THE EARLY
MORNING AND STRONG TIDAL ANOMALY EXPECTED GIVEN THE STORM
STRENGTH. S/SW FACING LOCALES WILL EXPERIENCE THE ROUGHEST SURF
CONDITIONS. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER FOR THE NORTH OREGON COAST WITH
LOWER FORECAST SEAS WITH SHORT LOW PERIODS...BUT AGAIN NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION EITHER AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT AND SEE HOW
QUICKLY SEAS BUILD. KMD/WOLFE

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR NORTHERN
OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES-UPPER
HOOD RIVER VALLEY-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR CASCADE
FOOTHILLS IN LANE COUNTY-CASCADES IN LANE COUNTY.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR GREATER
PORTLAND METRO AREA.

WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 6 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR GREATER
PORTLAND METRO AREA.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST WEDNESDAY FOR CENTRAL
WILLAMETTE VALLEY-LOWER COLUMBIA-NORTH OREGON COAST-SOUTH
WILLAMETTE VALLEY.

HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM PST WEDNESDAY
FOR CENTRAL COAST RANGE OF WESTERN OREGON-CENTRAL OREGON
COAST.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM PST WEDNESDAY FOR CENTRAL COAST
RANGE OF WESTERN OREGON.

COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM PST WEDNESDAY FOR
CENTRAL OREGON COAST-NORTH OREGON COAST.

HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR CENTRAL
OREGON COAST.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON PST WEDNESDAY FOR COAST RANGE
OF NORTHWEST OREGON.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 4 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR CENTRAL
WILLAMETTE VALLEY-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY.

HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR COAST
RANGE OF NORTHWEST OREGON-NORTH OREGON COAST.

WA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR SOUTH
WASHINGTON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES-
WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR GREATER
VANCOUVER AREA.

WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 6 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR GREATER
VANCOUVER AREA.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST WEDNESDAY FOR I-5
CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ COUNTY-SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON PST WEDNESDAY FOR WILLAPA HILLS.

PZ...STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL
WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 10
NM-WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM
10 TO 60 NM.

STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 4 AM PST WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL
WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR OUT 10 NM-WATERS FROM
CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM PST WEDNESDAY
FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR OUT 10 NM-
WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR THROUGH WED
AFTERNOON.

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PORTLAND OR

851 PM PST TUE JAN 17 2012

WILL BE KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON ANY HYDRO ISSUES THAT WILL LIKELY
APPEAR BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS RISING RIVER LEVELS ARE A CONCERN.
BROWN

PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONS TO ALL MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN DURING THE
DAY BEFORE EASING TOMORROW NIGHT...AND EXPECT ALL LOCATIONS EXCEPT
THE GORGE TO BE RAIN BY MIDDDAY. EXPECT A MIX OF MVFR AND MORE LIKELY
IFR TO CONTINUE. OF ADDITIONAL CONCERN ARE THE STRONG SOUTHERLY
WINDS TOMORROW THAT WILL BE FOUND NOT ONLY AT THE COAST...BUT EXPECT
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS IN THE VALLEY...WITH THE STRONGEST VALLEY
WINDS FROM SALEM SOUTH.