Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 01/18/12

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO

846 PM MST TUE JAN 17 2012

.UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...LATEST HRRR SHOWS HIGHEST WIND SPEEDS LATE TONIGHT
INTO WED MORNING WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 80 MPH WITH GUSTS IN THE FOOTHILLS UP TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE.
AT LOWER ELEVATIONS NEAR THE FOOTHILLS GUSTS ARE FCST TO BE IN THE
50-60 MPH RANGE TOWARDS SUNRISE SO WILL LEAVE WATCH IN PLACE.

.AVIATION...WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY BECOME MORE SSW BY 06Z. BOTH
RUC AND HRRR SO A BRIEF PERIOD AROUND SUNRISE WHERE WINDS MAY
BECOME WEST AROUND 10-20 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS. HOWEVER HRRR
SHOWS WINDS BECOMING MORE SSE BY LATE MORNING SO NOT TOO SURE
ABOUT WIND FCST AFTER 18Z IN CURRENT TAF.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM MST TUE JAN 17 2012/

SHORT TERM...NOSE OF A 190+ KT PACIFIC JET STREAM CASCADING DOWN
THE EAST SIDE OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OFF THE WEST COAST IS
PROGGED TO REACH NORTHERN COLORADO BY LATE TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THE JET
WARMING AT MID-LEVELS STRENGTHENS THE MTN TOP INVERSION WHICH
ENHANCES THE MTN WAVE IN THE LEE OF THE FRONT RANGE. CROSS SECTIONS
INDICATE A STEADY INCREASE IN MTN TOP AND LEESLOPE WIND SPEEDS
THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH A CROSS BARRIER WIND COMPONENT OF 75KTS JUST
ABOVE 700MB AT 12Z/WEDNESDAY. AS THE CORE OF THIS JET DROPS
SOUTHWARD OVER WYOMING DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...SHOULD SEE
WESTERLY WINDS INCREASING IN THE MTNS AND LEE SLOPE OF THE FRONT
RANGE WITH THE CROSS MTN WIND COMPONENT APPROACHING 95KTS BY THE
AFTERNOON. ALL THIS POINTS TO TREACHEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS IN THE
HIGH COUNTRY...POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS LATE TONIGHT AND WELL AS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY WEDNESDAY. WHITE OUT CONDITIONS AND ROAD CLOSURES
ARE A GOOD BET UP NEAR TIMBERLINE. BY THE AFTERNOON COULD SEE
SNOWFALL PICKING UP AS A WAVE OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE DROPS IN FROM
IDAHO. SNOWFALL IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY DUE TO POOR LAPSE
RATES...BUT THE STRONG WINDS WILL PROBABLY MAKE IT LOOK WORSE THAN
IT IS. EAST OF THE MTNS...WINDS NOT EXPECTED TO BE ANYWHERE AS
STRONG AS THAT IN AND NEAR THE FOOTHILLS. IT IS COMMON FOR CHINOOK
WINDS NOT TO SPREAD TOO FAR OUT ONTO THE PLAINS. NEAR THE FOOTHILLS
COULD SEE GUSTS TOWARDS MORNING AND THROUGHOUT THE DAY APPROACHING
HIGH WIND CRITERIA. ZONES 38 AND 39 STILL UNDER A HIGH WIND WATCH.
IT MAY BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING WHEN AND IF HIGH WINDS COULD OCCUR.
THERE/S SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT...TOO MUCH
WILL CONFINE THE STRONGEST WINDS TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ALL THIS WIND
WILL RESULT IN A BIG WARMUP TOMORROW...ESPLY IN WINDY AREAS WHERE
MAX TEMPS COULD BE AS MUCH AS 8 TO 10 DEG F ABOVE AVERAGE.

LONG TERM...MAIN CONCERNS STILL CENTER AROUND THE CONTINUING HIGH
WIND THREAT OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS...FOOTHILLS AND ADJACENT
PLAINS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY. THERE IS ALSO SOME
SNOW POTENTIAL FOR THE MOUNTAINS ALSO AS WE TRY BALANCE THE THREAT
OF WINDS VS SNOW AND THE APPROPRIATE HILITES TO HIT DURING THE THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE.

THE LARGE SCALE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY STRONG FROM THE WEST
TO NORTHWEST THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY WITH PERIODIC STREAKS OF
MOISTURE COMING INTO THE MOUNTAINS. LATEST NAM CROSS SECTIONS SHOW
THE PEAK OF THE WINDS DURING THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT PERIOD AS CROSS
BARRIER FLOW SHOWING OVER 100KTS OVER THE HIGHER EAST SLOPES ON
WEDNESDAY EVENING. WOW! LOOKS LIKE A GOOD SET UP FOR AMPLIFIED
MOUNTAIN WAVE CONDITIONS AS SHEAR PROFILE IMPROVES ALONG WITH VERY
STRONG STABILITY IN THE MOUNTAIN TOP LAYER. THE MAIN QUESTION IS THE
AMOUNT OF SNOW THAT MAY FALL IN THE MOUNTAINS. MOISTURE DEEPENS IN
THE MOUNTAINS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG WESTERLY OROGRAPHIC
FLOW. THE PROBLEM IS THAT WITH THE HIGH STABILITY THE THREAT OF
HEAVIER SNOW IS REDUCED WITH LOW LAPSE RATES IN THE 2.5-4C/KM RANGE.
THE BIGGER CONCERN MAY BE A THREAT OF BLIZZARD CONDITIONS OVER THE
HIGHER PASSES. FOR NOW WOULD LIKE TO SEE HOW THIS BEGINS TO PLAY OUT
AND START WITH THE HIGH WIND WARNINGS WHICH ARE ALREADY ISSUED. MAY
STILL END UP HAVING TO UPGRADE TO BLIZZARD WARNINGS DEPENDING ON HOW
MUCH MOISTURE AND SNOW END UP FALLING. THE MODELS SEEM INCONSISTENT
IN THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND THE TIMING
OF THE IMPULSES. HENCE GIVEN THE ABOVE WILL MAINTAIN HIGH WIND
WARNINGS FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS FOR NOW AS THE WINDS APPEAR
TO BE THE BIGGER THREAT OVER THE SNOW...ESPECIALLY IN ZONE 33 AND
34.

ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS...LOOK FOR MILD CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES
BECOMING WAY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WINDS WILL DECREASE
FURTHER AWAY FROM THE HILLS DURING THIS TYPICAL DOWNSLOPE...CHINOOK
WINDS.

LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE STRONG ZONAL
FLOW LOOKS TO BUCKLE A BIT WITH A POSSIBLE TROF CROSSING COLORADO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. WILL GO WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES AT THIS POINT AND SEE HOW THINGS DEVELOP.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
STRONG MOUNTAIN WAVE WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS TONIGHT...BRINGING A THREAT OF LLWS AND WEST WINDS
EXCEEDING 50 KNOTS AT KBJC LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHTER AT KAPA/KDEN SO THE MAIN IMPACT THERE SHOULD BE APPROACHES/
DEPARTURES RATHER THAN TERMINAL OPERATIONS. THERE IS A CHANCE OF
NEEDING ALL WEST OPERATIONS AT KDEN ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM 3 AM MST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
FOR COZ038-039.

HIGH WIND WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON MST THURSDAY FOR
COZ033>036.

SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM....ENTREKIN
AVIATION...RPK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DENVER CO

335 PM MST MON JAN 16 2012

.SHORT TERM...WIDE BAROCLINIC ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
AND SFC COLD FRONT PASSING OVER THE MOUNTAINS AT THIS HOUR. FRONTAL
BNDRY HAS MOVED THROUGH JACKSON COUNTY AS NOTED BY A SUDDEN DROP IN
TEMPERATURE AND ABRUPT SHIFT TO NORTHWEST WINDS AT WALDEN WHERE THE
TEMPERATURE FELL 11 DEGS F IN LESS THAN AN HOUR. BANDED SLANTWISE
CONVECTION...I.E. SNOWFALL...STREAKING CROSSING THE HIGH COUNTRY
JUST AHEAD OF THE 700-500MB TROUGH AXIS. HAVE NOTICED A STEADY
INCREASE IN SNOW INTENSITY AND COVERAGE IN THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS
WITH RUC QG VERTICAL FIELDS INDICATING WEAK TO MODERATE LARGE SCALE
ASCENT CENTERED OVER THE NRN MTNS. WHERE THIS PRECIP GOES FROM HERE
AND HOW EXTENSIVE IT WILL BE DEPENDS ON WHICH MODEL YOU LOOK AT.
BOTTOM LINE...THE NAM IS DRIER AND A BIT SLOWER WITH ITS EASTWARD
PROGRESS THAN THE GFS...ECMWF AND SREF. WHEREAS...THE GFS AND SREF
SHOW A WIDER AREA OF PRECIPITATION/SNOW FIELD ACROSS NERN COLORADO
THIS EVENING...WITH A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW ACCUM BY MIDNIGHT
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE. OVERALL SEE BANDED PRECIP
TRANSLATING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NERN PLAINS THIS EVENING...WITH THE
BACK EDGE OF THIS PRECIP SOUTHEAST OF THE DENVER METRO AREA BY
AROUND 05Z..AND OUT OF THE CWFA (LINCOLN COUNTY) POSSIBLY BY 08Z OR
09Z TONIGHT. EXPECTED SNOW ACCUMULATION WITHIN THE I-25 URBAN
CORRIDOR MINIMAL AT BEST...PERHAPS A HALF INCH ON GRASSY SURFACES
FROM ONE OF THE HEAVIER SNOW BANDS COMING OFF THE FOOTHILLS EARLY
THIS EVENING. AGAIN...APPEARS THE NORTHEAST CORNER IN THE BEST
POSITION TO SEE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL THIS EVENING.

LATER TONIGHT...SHOULD SEE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS USHERING IN DRIER
AND COLDER AIR FROM WYOMING. CLEARING LATE WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING CAUSING TEMPERATURES TO PLUNGE WELL BELOW ZERO
IN THE HIGH MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. MIN TEMPERATURES ALSO QUITE COLD ON
THE PLAINS WITH SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO THE NORM BY MORNING LIGHT.
COULD SEE A FEW SUBZERO READINGS IN LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS ALONG
THE SOUTH PLATTE RIVER.

ON TUESDAY...SWIFT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES OVER THE STATE
WITH A DRIER AIRMASS UPSTREAM. ANY SNOWFALL TOMORROW WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE HIGHEST PEAKS AND WEST FACING SLOPES ALONG THE
DIVIDE. EVEN THERE SNOW INTENSITIES WILL BE WEAK. TEMPERATURES WILL
STRUGGLE TO WARM TOMORROW WITH ONGOING COLD AIR ADVECTION. SEE
LITTLE CLOUD COVER ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE MTNS WITHE FLOW
REGIME.

.LONG TERM...MAIN CONCERN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE THE HIGH
WIND POTENTIAL IN THE MOUNTAINS...FOOTHILLS AND ADJACENT PLAINS AND
DEVELOPING SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS BY MIDWEEK. MOST OF THE WESTERN
U.S. WILL TRANSITION TO A STRONG AND ZONAL WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT THIS WEEK. IT APPEARS THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL EFFECT THE
REGION LATE TUE NIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY AM AS A STRONG
130-150KT JET CORE LIFTS OUT ACROSS WYOMING ON WEDNESDAY. THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN TO 10-15 MB ACROSS THE STATE
ON WED WHILE MOUNTAIN TOP STABILITY INCREASES. CROSS SECTIONS SHOW
AMPLIFIED MOUNTAIN WAVE DEVELOPING WITH 60-80KT OF CROSS BARRIER
FLOW. STILL A LOT OF QUESTION MARKS AS THERE ARE SOME CONFLICTING
PARAMETERS. THERE IS A LOT OF VERTICAL SHEAR ESPECIALLY EARLY ON
WEDNESDAY FOR AN AMPLIFIED MOUNTAIN WAVE. SHEAR PROFILE IMPROVES A
BIT BY WED NIGHT AS THE MAIN JET IS WELL EAST OF COLORADO.
HOWEVER...THE MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL STABILITY LOOKS QUITE IMPRESSIVE AS
STRONG MID LEVEL WARMING DEVELOPS A STRONG INVERSION IN THE
700-750MB LAYER. ALONG WITH THE TIGHTENING SURFACE GRADIENT THIS
SHOULD HELP SHIFT THE STRONGER WINDS DOWN OVER THE LOWER FOOTHILLS
AND AT THE BASE OF THE FOOTHILLS. ON THE OTHER HAND...INCREASING
MOISTURE IN THE MOUNTAINS ON WEDNESDAY MAY HELP NEGATE THE STRONGEST
WINDS AND DIMINISH THE MOUNTAIN WAVE EFFECTS. STILL ENOUGH FACTORS
TO WARRANT A HIGH WIND WATCH GIVEN THE VERY STRONG MOUNTAIN TOP FLOW
AROUND 80KTS. WILL PLAY THE WATCH TIMING IN A RATHER BROAD SCOPE FOR
NOW BUT HOPEFULLY ABLE TO NAIL DOWN TIMING AND STRENGTH BETTER IN
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

THE NEXT QUESTION WILL BE WHAT TO DO WITH ZONES 33 AND 34 IN TERMS
OF WIND VERSUS SNOW POTENTIAL...BUT THINK THE WIND WILL BE THE
BIGGEST FACTOR HERE. MOISTURE DEPTH DOES INCREASE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT BUT GIVEN THE INCREASING STABILITY...LAPSE RATES
DECREASE TO 2.5-4C/KM BY WED NIGHT. LOCAL SNOW MODEL GENERATES UNDER
ADVISORY AMOUNTS FOR NOW. WILL AT LEAST BUMP UP POPS TO LIKELY FOR
ZONES 31 AND 33 GIVEN THE STRONG WESTERLY OROGRAPHIC FLOW.

ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS IT WILL BE A DRY AND A MILD WEEK AHEAD WITH
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY MIDWEEK WITH READINGS IN THE 50S
AND LOWER 60S THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.AVIATION...COLD FRONT ALREADY SLIPPING INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO FROM
WYOMING AS OF 22Z. AS THIS FRONT MOVES SOUTH ALONG THE FOOTHILLS
SHOULD SEE BANDS OF LIGHT SNOWFALL FORMING ALONG AND BEHIND THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AT CURRENT SPEED COULD SEE THE FRONT AND ITS
ASSOCIATED SHIFT TO GUSTY NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE NEXT 60 TO 90
MINUTES...WITH THE HEAVIER SHOWERS BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY. MVFR
CEILINGS NOW ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO LOWER TO BELOW 3000 FEET AGL
AFTER 00Z/TUE WIT LOCAL LIFR CEILINGS WIT PASSING SNOW SHOWERS.
HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD ALSO PRODUCE VSBYS BELOW 2 MILES. AT THIS
TIME...IT APPEARS THAT PASSING SNOW SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE MINIMAL
SNOW ACCUMULATION IN THE DENVER ARE...PROBABLY NO MORE THAN A HALF
INCH ON GRASSY SURFACES. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF THE
DENVER AREA BY AROUND 05Z THIS EVENING...AND BY 07Z...SHOULD SEE
SKIES CLEARING WITH A SURGE OF DRIER AND COLDER AIR MOVING DOWN FROM
WYOMING. ON TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST
BREEZES FOR MOST OF THE DAY UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE
MOUNTAINS...FOOTHILLS AND ADJACENT PLAINS..ZONES 33>36..38>39 FROM
07Z TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH 19Z THURSDAY AM.
&&

BAKER/ENTREKIN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ALBANY NY

952 PM EST TUE JAN 17 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN AND INTENSIFY...AS MOVES ALONG
THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT TO THE
SYSTEM WILL SWING ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
OVERNIGHT...WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS...BLUSTERY...AND COLD
CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY MORNING...AS A CLIPPER LOW WILL
BRING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 930 PM...FORECAST ON TRACK. UPDATED POPS TO TIME COLD FRONT
AND SHOWERS ACROSS FORECAST AREA. HAVE LIKELY POPS ALONG BOUNDARY.
WINDS WILL SHIFT AND INCREASE BECOMING GUSTY WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS BASED ON OBSERVATIONAL
DATA.

AS OF 630 PM EST...WE WILL BE ALLOWING THE WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR
THE MIXTURE OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN TO EXPIRE AT 7 PM. THE
MESONET OBSERVATIONS SHOW TEMPERATURES HAVE MOSTLY RISEN ABOVE
FREEZING AT THIS TIME...AND THE BATCH OF PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED
WELL EAST OF THE REGION. WE HAVE TRIED TO TIME THE SHOWERS IN
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. A NARROW COLD FRONTAL RAIN BAND HAS
DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER WRN NY WITH SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE CONVECTION. HOWEVER...WE BELIEVE THIS SHOULD WEAKEN OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE WIND ADVISORY OVER
THE FORECAST AREA WITH GUSTS TO 50-55 MPH. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS IF ANY UPGRADE TO A HIGH WIND
WARNING IS NECESSARY. OVERALL...HAVE PCPN CHANGING FROM RAIN TO
SNOW SHOWERS SHORTLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION....AND SOUTH AND EAST BTWN 06Z-09Z. THE SHOWALTER VALUES
ARE GENERALLY +1 TO +3C AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SO WE WILL NOT BE
INCLUDING THUNDER AT THIS TIME. WE WILL ADD SOME PATCHY FOG OVER
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND NW CT PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT TOO.

PREVIOUS NEAR TERM...

AS OF 4 PM...IT HAS BEEN ANOTHER ACTIVE AND BUSY DAY ACROSS THE
ALY FORECAST AREA. THE NRN TIER HAS HAD MANY LOCATIONS HUNG UP IN
THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR THE FREEZING MARK IN THE THE MID TO LATE
PM...AS THE CURRENT AREA OF PCPN ON THE KENX/NORTHEAST MOSAIC
RADAR HAS PRODUCED PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN. WE HAD ONE REPORT
COME IN AT 3 PM IN FAIRFIELD OF HERKIMER COUNTY WITH TWO TENTHS OF
AN INCH OF ICE...AND A TEMP OF 31F. THE POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM JUST NORTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE THIS HOUR HAS A
DOUBLE WARM FRONT STRUCTURE. THE FIRST WEAK WARM FRONT WENT
THROUGH MOST THE REGION THIS MORNING. A SECOND WARM FRONT OR
THERMAL TROUGH WITH A SHORT-WAVE IN THE SW FLOW HAS FOCUSED THE
AREA OF PCPN. WE WILL BE EXTENDING THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
THE ERN DACKS...LAKE GEORGE-NRN SARATOGA REGION...AND SRN VT
UNTIL 7 PM. WE WILL BE EXPIRING HERKIMER...MONTGOMERY...SRN FULTON
COUNTIES AT 4 PM...AND PHRASE IT AS POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN...AS
THE LATEST MESONET SITES SHOW TEMPERATURES WARMING ABOVE FREEZING
AT THIS TIME IN THESE SPOTS.

THE OTHER BIG ISSUE TONIGHT IS THE SFC CYCLONE MOVING NORTHEAST
ALONG THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY. THE NAM20 INDICATES AN
IMPRESSIVE ISALLOBARIC RISE-FALL PRESSURE COUPLET. WE ARE
EXPECTING 10-12 HPA/3 HRS RISES MOVING NEAR MASSENA WITH THE
DEEPENING AND INTENSIFYING WAVE EARLY THIS EVENING. THE GREATEST PRESSURE
RISES IN OUR AREA ARE 5-6 HPA/3 HRS. WE HAVE EXPANDED THE WIND
ADVISORY TO INCLUDE THE WRN AND SRN DACKS...LAKE GEORGE NRN
SARATOGA REGION...AND SRN VT...AS WELL AS NRN LITCHFIELD CTY CT.
BASICALLY OUR ENTIRE FCST AREA IS IN A WIND ADVISORY BY 10 PM
TONIGHT TO 3 PM TOMORROW...EXCEPT FOR THE MID HUDSON VALLEY /ERN
ULSTER...AND DUTCHESS COUNTIES/...AND SRN LITCHFIELD CTY CT.
THANKS FOR THE COLLABORATION WITH BOX AND OKX FOR THE ADDITION OF
NRN LITCHFIELD CTY. THE H850 WINDS RAMP UP TO 50-70 KTS
TONIGHT...INITIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF KALB PRIOR TO
MIDNIGHT...THEN THEY OVERSPREAD THE REGION. THE 925 HPA WINDS
INCREASE TO 35-50 KTS BTWN 06Z-12Z WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
OCCURRING ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.
THE LATEST 18Z NAM40 GUIDANCE HAS H850 TEMPS FALL TO -10C TO -15C
BY 12Z. WE MAY HAVE OUR ACTUAL MAX TEMPS OCCUR AROUND OR SHORTLY
AFTER 12Z TOMORROW.

THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF UPSLOPE SNOWFALL ALONG THE WRN SPINE OF
THE WRN DACKS...N-CNTRL TACONICS...AND THE SRN GREENS. THE SHOWERS
QUICKLY TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BTWN
03Z-06Z FROM KALB NORTH AND WEST...AND 06Z-09Z SOUTH AND EAST. WE
ARE DEALING WITH A OPEN WAVE...AND THE PERIOD OF OROGRAPHIC
UPSLOPE SNOWFALL SHOULD BE QUICK WITH POSSIBLY 1 TO 4 INCHES
ACROSS THE SRN DACKS/WRN MOHAWK VALLEY...AND 1-2 INCHES OVER THE
SRN GREENS.

WE DID NOT ISSUE ANY LAKE EFFECT/WINTER WX HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.
AGAIN...THE LATEST HIRES WRF...AND HRRR SHOW A NARROW PERIOD WITH
THIS SNOWFALL WITH IT TRANSLATING TO SOME MULTIBANDS TOWARDS
DAYBREAK. WE WILL CONTINUE TO EVALUATE IF ANY HEADLINES ARE
NEEDED...BUT AT THIS TIME THE WINDS LOOK LIKE THE BIGGEST ISSUE.

EXPECT TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE TEENS OVER THE SRN DACKS...AND 20S
OVER MOST OF THE REST OF THE REGION...EXCEPT FOR THE THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY...AND SRN LITCHFIELD CTY WHERE SOME LOWER 30S ARE POSSIBLE.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER PROFILES INDICATE WIND
ADVISORY GUSTS ARE STILL POSSIBLE INTO THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
IF WE MIX TO 875-900 HPA OR SO. IF WE MIX HIGHER...THEN WE COULD
APPROACH SOME 50 KT GUSTS. OVERALL...NW WIND GUSTS OF 45-55 MPH
ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL ABOUT 20Z. KPOU IS MARGINAL WITH THE GUST
POTENTIAL AROUND 35 KTS OR SO. WE KEPT THAT LOCATION OUT OF THE
WIND ADVISORY. BLUSTERY AND COLD CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH
TEMPS FALLING IN THE 20S AND TEENS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH COLD
ADVECTION CONTINUING WITH H850 TEMPS FALLING TO -15C TO -20C. THE
NW FLOW FAVORS MULTIBANDS OVER CNTRL NY TOMORROW. SOME OF THE
NARROW MULTIBANDS CREEP INTO THE WRN MOHAWK VALLEY...AND ERN
CATSKILLS. A COATING TO AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE. WE
TENDED TO DECREASE THE POPS TO SLIGHT OR LOW CHC VALUES OVER THE
SRN GREENS...NRN TACONICS...AND BERKSHIRES WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER
DRYING OUT /WE ARE LOSING THE MOISTURE HERE/ AND THE MESOSCALE
GUIDANCE SHOWING LESS OF AN UPSLOPE EVENT.

IN THE LATE AFTERNOON...THE UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS OVER KYSR...AND
KRME SHOW THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LOWERING TO 4-5 KFT AGL
SQUELCHING ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY RIDGES IN OVER NY AND NEW
ENGLAND WITH COLD AND DRY WEATHER. THE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE...AND
EXPECT DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH LOWS ZERO TO 10 BELOW OVER
THE LAKE GEORGE REGION...AND SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...SINGLE DIGITS
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT 10 TO 15F IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND SRN
LITCHFIELD CTY CT.

THU-THU NIGHT...ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AND SRN ONTARIO FOR LATE THU. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE
DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY PM...AS THE WARM ADVECTION
INCREASES. WE PLACE SOME SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS IN DURING THE PM
FOR SOME SCT SNOW SHOWERS OR LIGHT SNOW. THE WAVE PASSES WELL
NORTH OVER S-CNTRL QUEBEC...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED WARM AND COLD
FRONTS BRINGING SOME LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS TO REGION WITH
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF A COATING TO AN INCH OR TWO. WE WENT
WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE NRN TIER THU NIGHT.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NO MAJOR SYSTEMS DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT AREAS OF CHC POPS FOR
MOST. THERE WILL BE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AREAS INTERSPERSED BETWEEN
WEAK FRONTS/SYSTEMS. A RELATIVELY MODEST WARM-UP IS IN STORE DURING
THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS AND 20S ON FRIDAY WILL
BECOME HIGHS FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 50S BY MONDAY WHEN 540
1000-500 MB THICKNESSES WILL LIE JUST NORTH OF OUR ZONES. INDEED...
MONDAY WILL BE THE NICEST DAY OF THE PERIOD...WITH THE GREATEST
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AND LOWEST POPS. OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM THE MINUS
SINGLE DIGITS IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO THE LOWER 30S IN THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY...WILL MODERATE TO LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 30S SUNDAY
NIGHT AS THERE WILL BE NO REAL DIURNAL COOLING TREND GIVEN THE WARM
FRONT LIFTING THROUGH THE AREA.

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STEADY PRECIPITATION MOVED OFF TO OUR EAST LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THE AREA IS NOW IN A PRECIPITATION LULL...WAITING ON APPROACHING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK
WITH THE SURFACE LOW MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO. LARGE
PRESSURE FALLS ARE OCCURRING JUST TO WEST OF THE LOW PRESSURE
CENTER. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST THEN WEST WITH PASSAGE
OF THE COLD FRONT AND BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY. AT THIS TIME...THERE
IS A LINE OF CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK PRODUCING
VERY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND SOME DAMAGE...REFER TO NWS BUFFALO`S
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT (BUFLSRBUF) FOR DETAILS. EXPECT
THIS CONVECTION TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE STATE AND
ENCOUNTERS COLDER AND MORE STABLE AIR. HAVE ADDRESSED THE THREAT
FOR SHOWERS WITH THE COLD FRONT IN TAFS WITH VICINITY SHOWERS.

IFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES WITH AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IN ITS WAKE. HOWEVER...MVFR
IS EXPECTED WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY.

HAVE A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET MOVING ACROSS AREA SO HAVE ADDED LOW
LEVEL SHEAR TO KGFL AND KPOU WHERE HAS LIGHT SURFACE WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT...VFR. NO SIG WX.
THU...MAINLY VFR. SLIGHT CHC -SHSN WITH MVFR POSSIBLE.
THU NIGHT...MVFR. CHC -SHSN AT KALB AND KPOU WITH -SHSN LIKELY AT
KGFL WITH IFR POSSIBLE.
FRI...VFR. NO SIG WX.
SAT...VFR WITH MVFR POSSIBLE. CHC -SHSN.
SUN...VFR. NO SIG WX.

.HYDROLOGY...
NO MAJOR PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH SOME SCATTERED
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WITH LIGHT LIQUID EQUIVALENT AMOUNTS WELL
UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH. THE HIGHEST SNOW TALLIES WILL BE ALONG
THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND THE SOUTHERN
GREEN MOUNTAINS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
OF 1 TO 4 INCHES.

COLD AND DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
A CLIPPER LOW MAY BRING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OR LIGHT SNOW
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM FOR THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEKEND MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL AGAIN.

ICE FORMATION OR THICKENING WILL SLOW DOWN THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A
BRIEF SPELL OF MILDER WEATHER. ICE FORMATION SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS TEMPERATURES FALL BACK WELL BELOW
FREEZING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ001.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ032-033-038>043-
047>054-058>061-063-082>084.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...KL/WASULA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ALBANY NY

708 PM EST TUE JAN 17 2012

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 630 PM EST...WE WILL BE ALLOWING THE WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR
THE MIXTURE OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN TO EXPIRE AT 7 PM. THE
MESONET OBSERVATIONS SHOW TEMPERATURES HAVE MOSTLY RISEN ABOVE
FREEZING AT THIS TIME...AND THE BATCH OF PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED
WELL EAST OF THE REGION. WE HAVE TRIED TO TIME THE SHOWERS IN
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. A NARROW COLD FRONTAL RAIN BAND HAS
DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER WRN NY WITH SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE CONVECTION. HOWEVER...WE BELIEVE THIS SHOULD WEAKEN OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE WIND ADVISORY OVER
THE FORECAST AREA WITH GUSTS TO 50-55 MPH. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS IF ANY UPGRADE TO A HIGH WIND
WARNING IS NECESSARY. OVERALL...HAVE PCPN CHANGING FROM RAIN TO
SNOW SHOWERS SHORTLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION....AND SOUTH AND EAST BTWN 06Z-09Z. THE SHOWALTER VALUES
ARE GENERALLY +1 TO +3C AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SO WE WILL NOT BE
INCLUDING THUNDER AT THIS TIME. WE WILL ADD SOME PATCHY FOG OVER
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND NW CT PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT TOO.

PREVIOUS NEAR TERM...

EXPECT TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE TEENS OVER THE SRN DACKS...AND 20S
OVER MOST OF THE REST OF THE REGION...EXCEPT FOR THE THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY...AND SRN LITCHFIELD CTY WHERE SOME LOWER 30S ARE POSSIBLE.

IN THE LATE AFTERNOON...THE UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS OVER KYSR...AND
KRME SHOW THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LOWERING TO 4-5 KFT AGL
SQUELCHING ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW.

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STEADY PRECIPITATION MOVED OFF TO OUR EAST LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THE AREA IS NOW IN A PRECIPITATION LULL...WAITING ON APPROACHING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK
WITH THE SURFACE LOW MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO. LARGE
PRESSURE FALLS ARE OCCURRING JUST TO WEST OF THE LOW PRESSURE
CENTER. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST THEN WEST WITH PASSAGE
OF THE COLD FRONT AND BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY. AT THIS TIME...THERE
IS A LINE OF CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK PRODUCING
VERY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND SOME DAMAGE...REFER TO NWS BUFFALO`S
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT (BUFLSRBUF) FOR DETAILS. EXPECT
THIS CONVECTION TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE STATE AND
ENCOUNTERS COLDER AND MORE STABLE AIR. HAVE ADDRESSED THE THREAT
FOR SHOWERS WITH THE COLD FRONT IN TAFS WITH VICINITY SHOWERS.

IFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES WITH AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IN ITS WAKE. HOWEVER...MVFR
IS EXPECTED WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY.

HAVE A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET MOVING ACROSS AREA SO HAVE ADDED LOW
LEVEL SHEAR TO KGFL AND KPOU WHERE HAS LIGHT SURFACE WINDS.

.HYDROLOGY...
NO MAJOR PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...KL/WASULA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ALBANY NY

654 PM EST TUE JAN 17 2012

PREVIOUS NEAR TERM...

EXPECT TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE TEENS OVER THE SRN DACKS...AND 20S
OVER MOST OF THE REST OF THE REGION...EXCEPT FOR THE THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY...AND SRN LITCHFIELD CTY WHERE SOME LOWER 30S ARE POSSIBLE.

IN THE LATE AFTERNOON...THE UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS OVER KYSR...AND
KRME SHOW THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LOWERING TO 4-5 KFT AGL
SQUELCHING ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW.

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE BATCH OF RAIN SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK WILL BE MOVING
EASTWARD TOWARDS THE HUDSON VALLEY TAF SITES FOR THE MID TO LATE
AFTN HOURS. TEMPS HAVE WARMED UP ENOUGH IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER FOR
THIS PRECIP TO FALL AS JUST PLAIN RAIN. THIS RAIN WILL ALLOW FOR
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS/VSBYS...AND BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CIGS AND
POSSIBLY VSBYS FOR KALB/KGFL. KPOU SHOULD REMAIN FAR ENOUGH SOUTH
TO AVOID MOST OF THE IFR...BUT MVFR CIGS/VSBYS LOOK LIKELY FOR THE
AFTN/EARLY EVE HOURS THERE AS WELL. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE
GENERALLY FAIRLY LIGHT...LESS THAN 10 KTS.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR WINDS TO SWITCH TO A SW DIRECTION AND EVENTUALLY
WESTERLY OVERNIGHT. WITH MUCH COLDER AIR MOVING IN ALOFT...BETTER
MIXING WILL OCCUR AND THE LOW CLOUDS WILL SCOUR OUT OVERNIGHT WITH
VFR CIGS/VSBYS RETURNING TO ALL TAF SITES DURING THE LATE EVENING
HOURS. WITH A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY...VERY STRONG SFC WINDS WILL DEVELOP FOR LATE
TONIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...MAINLY FOR KALB/KGFL. A FEW
GUSTS MAY APPROACH 40 KTS...ESP IN AREAS OF CHANNELED FLOW /SUCH
AS KALB DUE TO THE MOHAWK VALLEY/...BY WED MORNING. THERE WILL
ONLY FEW-SCT VFR CU ACROSS THE REGION FOR WED MORNING...BUT WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE STRONG RIGHT INTO WED AFTN.

LLWS COULD BE AN ISSUE THIS EVENING AS STRONG WINDS OF AROUND 40
KTS MOVE IN AROUND 2 KFT AFTER 00Z. HOWEVER...SFC WINDS WILL BE
INCREASING...SO LLWS CRITERIA MAY NOT BE OFFICIALLY BE MET.
STILL...WINDS WILL BE INCREASING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND
THIS COULD BE ADDRESSED IN FUTURE TAF ISSUANCES.

OUTLOOK...
WED PM...VFR...WINDY.
WED NIGHT...VFR. NO SIG WX.
THU...MAINLY VFR. SLIGHT CHC -SHSN WITH MVFR POSSIBLE.
FRI...VFR. NO SIG WX.
SAT...MVFR/IFR. CHC -SN/-RA.

.HYDROLOGY...
NO MAJOR PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM EST WEDNESDAY
FOR CTZ001.
NY...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM EST WEDNESDAY
FOR NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063-082>084.
MA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM EST WEDNESDAY
FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM EST WEDNESDAY
FOR VTZ013>015.

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...KL/WASULA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA

649 PM EST TUE JAN 17 2012

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 PM EST TUE JAN 17 2012/

UPDATE...
RAIN MOVING INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA AND HAVE THEREFORE INCREASED POPS
TO 100 PERCENT IN THAT AREA. ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMP AND DEWPOINT GRIDS
FOR THE NEXT 6 HOURS TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH THE RUC WHICH IS DOING
A VERY GOOD JOB THIS EVENING ON TEMPS/DEWPOINTS. NO OTHER CHANGES
PLANNED.

PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 244 PM EST TUE JAN 17 2012/
A COLD FRONT FROM CENTRAL TN THROUGH NORTH MS TO CENTRAL LA WILL
CONTINUE TO APPROACH GA THIS AFTERNOON. AREAS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
TSTMS ARE MOVING THROUGH NORTH AL AND MOST OF MS AT THIS TIME.
THE AIRMASS OVER GA IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT REMAINS MARGINALLY
UNSTABLE WITH LIFTED INDICES IN THE ZERO TO MINUS 2 RANGE AND
CAPES OF 300 TO 600 J/KG. MODELS STILL SHOW HIGH SHEAR WITH
HELICITIES IN THE 200 TO 400 RANGE...BUT SEVERE TSTMS ARE
UNLIKELY. SOME BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THE STRONGER TSTMS. OTHERWISE...WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED TSTMS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT OVER THE FORECAST
AREA.

NAM AND GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT.
IT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER NORTHWEST GA AROUND 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...
PASS OVER THE ATLANTA METRO AREA AROUND 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY...THEN
MOVE EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 7 AM EST
WEDNESDAY MORNING. COLD HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL BUILD
OVER GA WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO
NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

HYDROLOGY...
/ISSUED AT 244 PM EST TUE JAN 17 2012/
STILL EXPECTING STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE HALF TO ONE
INCH ACROSS THE COUNTY WARNING AREA AS GULF MOISTURE...PWS OF 1.3
INCHES...ARE PUMPED INTO THE STATE. ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE
IN TSTMS. OTHER THAN SOME TEMPORARY ROAD PONDING IN SLOW DRAINING
AREAS...NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 244 PM EST TUE JAN 17 2012/
MODELS AGREE ON A BRIEF DRY PERIOD THURSDAY NIGHT. A WEAK SHORT
WAVE MAY AFFECT THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY AND HAVE INCLUDED LOW POPS.
MODELS DIFFER ON LOCATION AND SPEED OF A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES
THAT DEVELOP DURING THE WEEKEND SO HAVE LEFT CHANCE OR SLIGHT
CHANCE ACROSS THE AREA FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MORE UNCERTAINTY
FOR MONDAY WITH THE EVOLUTION OF A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE...SO
HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS IN FOR MONDAY.

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WITH MVFR CIGS
IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN TAFS...LOW VFR FOR CSG/MCN. EXPECT MOSTLY
MVFR VSBY WITH THE RAIN BUT COULD SEE BRIEF LOWERING TO IFR
DEPENDING ON RAIN INTENSITY. TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH CIGS LOWERING TO LOW MVFR OR IFR EVERYWHERE.
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10KT WILL SHIFT TO WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST
AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...AND SHOULD BEGIN GUSTING AGAIN BY
AROUND 08Z...GUSTING BETWEEN 18-25KT FOR MOST OF THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS WEDNESDAY. CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR OUT BETWEEN 08-12Z...SKC ON
WEDNESDAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON WIND SPEEDS...DIRECTIONS...AND VSBY.
MEDIUM ON CIGS AND TIMING OF LOWERING/LIFTING CLOUDS.
MEDIUM-LOW ON POTENT FOR THUNDER.

TDP

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 44 52 29 57 / 100 5 5 10
ATLANTA 40 52 32 58 / 100 0 5 10
BLAIRSVILLE 34 44 27 51 / 100 0 5 10
CARTERSVILLE 36 48 25 58 / 100 0 5 5
COLUMBUS 44 56 32 61 / 100 5 5 5
GAINESVILLE 38 48 31 53 / 100 5 5 10
MACON 46 56 29 60 / 100 20 5 5
ROME 36 46 27 57 / 100 0 5 5
PEACHTREE CITY 39 51 25 59 / 100 0 5 10
VIDALIA 49 63 32 63 / 100 60 5 5

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA

620 PM EST TUE JAN 17 2012

.UPDATE...
RAIN MOVING INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA AND HAVE THEREFORE INCREASED POPS
TO 100 PERCENT IN THAT AREA. ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMP AND DEWPOINT GRIDS
FOR THE NEXT 6 HOURS TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH THE RUC WHICH IS DOING
A VERY GOOD JOB THIS EVENING ON TEMPS/DEWPOINTS. NO OTHER CHANGES
PLANNED.

.PREV DISCUSSION...

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
AS FIRST LINE OF SHRA HAS PUSHED THROUGH THE TERMINALS...LOW END
MVFR TO HIGH END IFR IS FILTERING IN QUICKLY. WILL CARRY THROUGH
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON UNTIL NEXT LINE OF SHRA WITH
EMBEDDED TSRA MOVES IN. LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCES FOR TSRA WILL
BE FOR THE CSG TAF AND KEPT THE TEMPO IN FOR LATER THIS EVENING.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SITES...23Z STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR ATL AREA
TERMINALS ALTHOUGH USING TIMING TOOLS...COULD BE A COUPLE HOURS
EITHER SIDE OF THIS. BASED ON HRRR OUTPUT AND CONSISTENCY
SAKE...JUST KEPT IT AT 23Z FOR NOW. WINDS SHOULD PICK UP OVERNIGHT
AND WILL SEE A QUICK TRANSITION FROM IFR TO MVFR AFTER 09Z. KEPT
MVFR THROUGH 12Z BEFORE SKC BECOMES PREDOMINANT FOR WED. WINDS
WILL BE GUSTY IN THE MORNING BUT SHOULD ACTUALLY DECREASE IN THE
AFTERNOON AS GRADIENT RELAXES.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM IN SHRA/TSRA TIMING.
HIGH FOR REMAINING ELEMENTS.

DEESE

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL

328 PM CST MON JAN 16 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM NORTHERN LK MI SOUTHWEST THROUGH EASTERN
IOWA TO LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHWEST MO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SO FAR
NOT PRECIPITATION WAS OCCURRING IN THE VICINITY OF FRONT OR SURFACE
IN OR NEAR THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THERE WAS STRONG THERMAL
GRADIENT RANGING FROM THE MID AND UPPER 60S OVER THE NORTHEAST
QUARTER OF MO TO THE MID 30S OVER NORTHEAST IOWA. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WAS STREAMING NORTH AHEAD OF THE LOW/FRONT WITH
WIDESPREAD MID AND UPPER 40 DEWPOINTS OVER MUCH OF NORTHEAST MO
INTO WEST CENTRAL IL. THE MIDWEST FRONT WAS SETUP AHEAD OF A 500MB
S/W TROF THAT WAS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN ROCKIES AT
18Z PER RUC PROGS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...
A CHALLENGING FORECAST FOR THE OVER NIGHT HOURS WITH THE STRONG
COLD FRONT OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE CWFA BY LATE EVENING. THEN SOME MID-LEVEL ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AFTER THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR IS IN PLACE.
TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE A RAW WINDY DAY WITH STRONG CAA AND LINGER
FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW.

SO FAR WITH THIS SYSTEM PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN NON
EXISTENT...HOWEVER THAT APPEARS TO BE CHANGING AS WE GO INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE LOW LEVELS
SATURATING THIS EVENING WHICH SHOULD OCCUR AS THE COLD LOW LEVEL
AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT THIS EVENING. SOME FORCING WILL BE
PRESENT IN THE LOW LEVELS IN THE FORM OF FGEN AT THE SAME TIME
MID/UPPER LEVEL RH WILL BE INCREASING AND COULD PROVIDE A FEEDER
MECHANISM FOR THE LOW CLOUDS...SO WENT WITH LOW POPS FOR LIGHT
PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING AS OPPOSED TO DRIZZLE. IF
PRECIPITATION OCCURS BEFORE MIDNIGHT THEN THE THERMAL PROFILES
WOULD FAVOR RAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWFA WITH A MIX OF
FZRA/SN OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF. BETTER FORCING WILL MOVE OVER THE
AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH MID/UPPER FGEN INCREASING AHEAD OF VORT
MAX MOVING OUT OF THE WESTERN TROF. THE FGEN WILL BE CO-LOCATED
WITH A POCKET OF STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WHICH SUPPORTS A
NARROW BAND OF ENHANCED PRECIPITATION MAINLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST
CWA INTO NW IL. THERE MAY BE SOME FREEZING RAIN MIXED WITH THE
PRECIPITATION JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT THE COLD AIR SHOULD DEEPEN
ENOUGH BY 09Z FOR ALL SNOW OVER THE CWFA. THE SNOW WILL LINGER
INTO THE MORNING AND END DURING THE AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHWEST
WITH LINGERING FLURRIES IN THE NORTHEAST. BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE OVER
THE NORTHWEST HALF WITH LESS THAN AN INCH IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF
THE CWFA. NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 25 TO 30 MPH TUESDAY MAY
CAUSE SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES SHOULD
FALL INTO THE TEENS NORTHWEST TO MID 20S SOUTHEAST. ONGOING STRONG
LOW LEVEL CAA AND CLOUDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE
FALLING DURING THE DAY AND SHOULD BE IN THE TEENS BY MID AFTERNOON
OVER ALL BUT THE SOUTHWEST CORNER WHERE LOW TO MID 20S ARE
ANTICIPATED. ..DLF..

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...LOOKING AT THE LATEST AVAILABLE
12Z RUN MODEL GUIDANCE...CLEARING AND COLD CONDITIONS STILL ON
TRACK FOR TUE NIGHT IN SUBSIDENCE WAKE OF THE EXITING GRT LKS SYSTEM
AND ARRIVAL OF LLVL RIDGE LOBE. SOME LOWS BELOW ZERO POSSIBLE IN
AREAS NORTH OF I80/FAVORED VALLEY REGIONS...OTHERWISE OTHER AREAS
TO BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO. THESE LATEST 12Z RUNS STILL
SUGGEST AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL PROPAGATE OUT OF THE ACTIVE
PACIFIC NW REGION AND PASS ACRS PORTIONS OF MN AND WI CLIPPER-
STYLE IN FRESHLY ESTABLISHED BROAD NORTH-WESTERLIES...TO USHER YET
ANOTHER FRONT INTO THE CWA BY LATE WED NIGHT AND INTO THU MORNING.
STILL APPEARS A POSSIBILITY OF OR EVEN POST-FRONTAL LIGHT SNOW IN
MUCH OF THE CWA WED NIGHT AND INTO THU MORNING. FOR NOW...WILL ADD
A SLIGHT CHC FOR MEASURABLE SNOW IN THE FAR NORTHEASTERN CWA BUT
ADD FLURRIES FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST AREA. THE 12Z
GFS REMAINS THE QUICKEST SOLUTION IN HANDLING THE FROPA MAKING IT
TO THE WESTERN OH RVR VALLEY BY 12Z THU AND POST-FRONTAL COLD RUSH
WELL IMPLANTED ACRS THE LOCAL AREA...BUT OTHER MODELS INCLUDING
THE ECMWF HAVE SPED UP THIS PROCESS AS WELL. THUS IT APPEARS A
COLD BLUSTERY LATE WED NIGHT-THU MORNING COULD BE IN STORE WITH
LOW SINGLE DIGIT LOWS BY DAWN THU AND WIND CHILLS IN THE DOUBLE
DIGITS BELOW ZERO.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ONGOING LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES TO
START THE PERIOD OFF THU MORNING...BUT AGAIN NORTHWEST WINDS IN
STOUT CAA/INCOMING SFC RIDGE PRESSURE GRADIENT COULD BE GUSTING OVER
30 MPH AND PRODUCING DOUBLE DIGIT BELOW ZERO WIND CHILL VALUES
THROUGH AT LEAST MID MORNING. PASSING 1025+ MB COLD HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM WITH ORIGINS FROM WESTERN CANADA WILL THEN SCOUR THINGS OUT
FOR THE REST OF THE DAY AND INTO THU EVENING BEFORE HIGH CLOUDS
INCREASE AGAIN FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF THE NEXT POTENTIAL SYSTEM. LLVL
BAROCLINICITY STILL TO GET ALIGNED PARALLEL UNDER THE DEVELOPING MEAN
FLOW NORTH-WESTERLIES ACRS OR NEAR THE DVN CWA ON THU AND TIGHTENING
UP AS THE PERIOD PROGRESSES. LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS CONTINUE
TO PICK UP ON A MORE SUBSTANTIAL TYPE CLIPPER-LIKE WAVE PROPAGATING
DOWN IN THIS FLOW ALONG THE LLVL THERMAL RIBBON TOWARD WEEKS END.
THIS SYSTEM WILL LOOK TO UTILIZE SOME GULF MOISTURE FEED FROM
THE SOUTH...BUT THE MODELS CONTINUE TO VARY FROM RUN-TO-RUN ON HOW
FAR NORTH OR SOUTH THIS FEATURE WILL TRACK AS WELL AS INCOMING SPEED.
THEY STILL SUGGEST A WAVE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE 1-3 OR EVEN 2-4
INCHES OF SNOW SOMEWHERE IN THE REGION...WITH THE LATEST 12Z RUN
GFS NOW MAKING A DIRECT HIT ON THE CWA FROM LATE THU NIGHT INTO
FRI MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD 2-4 INCHES BY 18Z FRI BEFORE THE
SYSTEM SHUTTLES OFF TO THE EAST. THE NEW 12Z ECMWF IS NOW SLOWER
AND FURTHER NORTH...SUGGESTING A DRY THU NIGHT AND THEN ACCUMULATING
SNOWS OF 2-5+ INCHES MAINLY ACRS MN/NE IA AND SOUTH HALF OF WI ON
FRI. THE EURO DOES TRY TO DO SOME PHASING/DIGGING RIGHT OVER AND
JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE DVN CWA LATER FRI WHICH MAY THEN WRAP SOME
ACCUMULATING SNOWS BACK ON THE NORTHEASTERN AND NORTHERN CWA FRI
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING WITH ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE.
INTERESTING THAT THE LATEST RUNS ARE LESS BULLISH ON THE EXTENT OF
WARM DRAW FROM THE SOUTH SO FOR NOW WILL JUST ADVERTISE ALL SNOW
ON FRI INSTEAD OF A MIX IN THE SOUTH. BUT THERE IS TIME FOR LATER
RUNS TO AGAIN CHANGE ON THAT ASPECT. WILL KEEP MODERATE CHC POPS
GOING ALONG WITH THE SNOW WORDING ON FRI FOR NOW.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...LONG RANGE SIGNALS/ENSEMBLES AND TRENDS ON
PROJECTED H5 MB GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FIELDS SUGGEST L/W TROF ENERGY TO
DIG ACRS THE WESTERN COAST...WITH RESULTANT FLATTENING FLOW TO MID
CONUS RIDGING TAKING PLACE BEHIND THE EXITING FRI SYSTEM OVER THE
WEEKEND. STRONG THERMAL MODERATION SIGNALS ARE THERE WITH A TAP INTO
ANOTHER ROUND OF BUILDING WARM POOL ACRS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY
SUNDAY...AS OPPOSED TO SAT WHICH NOW DOES NOT APPEAR WILL BE AS
MILD AFTER A COLD START/FRI NIGHT AND SOME DELAY IN RETURN FLOW.
THERMAL PROFILES ARE ALMOST THERE TO SUPPORT HIGHS NEAR 50 BY NEXT
SUNDAY WITH ENOUGH MIXING AND INSOLATION...BUT MUCH WILL DEPEND ON
ANY NEW SNOW COVER FROM THE FRI SYSTEM AND MOISTURE RETURN GOING INTO
CLOUD PRODUCTION LIMITING THE WARM UP POTENTIAL WHICH IS COMMON IN
THIS TYPE OF WAA SCENARIO. WILL TAKE THE PRECIP OUT FOR NEXT SUNDAY
UNDER THE EXPECTED THERMAL RIDGE...BUT NOT GO QUITE AS WARM AS THE
POTENTIAL IS FOR NOW....UPPER 30S IN THE FAR NORTH TO THE MID/UPPER
40S ALONG AND SOUTH OF I80. MODEL DISCREPANCIES AND PHASING ISSUES
APLENTY IN HANDLING EVENTUAL IN-LAND PROPAGATING WAVE ENERGY OUT OF
THE WESTERN TROFFINESS FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. BUT LOOKING AT LONG RANGE UPPER JET PLACEMENT AND AIRMASS
STEERING MECHANISMS THE ABOVE NORMAL THERMAL REGIME STILL LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL BE WELL IN PLACE BY THE TIME THESE WAVE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
SFC FEATURES TRY TO PUSH ACRS THE MIDWEST. THUS MAINLY A RAIN THREAT
FOR THE MONDAY PERIOD...BUT CONFIDENCE ON THIS TIMING LOW. THE ECMWF
ACTUALLY PUSHES A FRONT THROUGH THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A RAIN
THREAT...AND THEN IS DRY AND COOLER FOR MONDAY AS THE NEXT LARGE
SYSTEM ORGANIZES UPSTREAM AND LOOMS OVER THE GRT BSN/SW PLAINS WITH
THOUGHTS OF IMPACTING THE MIDWEST BY MID NEXT WEEK. ..12..

.AVIATION...
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DETERIORATE BY LATE THIS
THIS EVENING AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. MVFR TO IFR
CIGS SHOULD COVER MOST OF THE AREA BY MID EVENING. SOME PATCHY
DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL MAY ALSO DEVELOP DURING THE SAME TIME PERIOD.
BY LATE EVENING SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA. THERE
MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN FROM THE I80 CORRIDOR SOUTH
IN WEST CENTRAL IL AND ADJACENT AREAS OF SOUTHEAST IOWA INCLUDING
KMLI AND KBRL BEFORE THE PRECIP CHANGES TO ALL SNOW. THE SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF BY LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
SOME ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE AT KCID/KMLI/KDBQ. NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS OF 25KT TO
30KTS EXPECTED BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING. THE STRONG WINDS COULD
CAUSE SOME MVFR VSBYS IN BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW ..DLF..

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

DLF/12

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL

1154 PM CST SUN JAN 15 2012

.AVIATION...
WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS MOST OF THE OVRNGT WITH S/SE WINDS
10-15 KTS AND GUSTY SLOWLY DIMINISHING AS FRONT APPROACHES.
HAVE KEPT LLWS IN FCST WITH 45-50 KT LOW LEVEL JET AROUND
2000 FT AGL BUT BEST POTENTIAL NEXT FEW HRS BEFORE WINDS DROP
OFF AND JET VEERS. MAIN CHALLENGE THEN REMAINS ONSET OF LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG. SOME MODELS CONTINUE VERIFYING TOO MOIST WHICH
MAKES FOR LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING. LATEST NAM AND RUC MODELS
APPEAR TO BE COMING MORE IN LINE WITH OBSERVATIONS OF BEING SLOWER
WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. HAVE THEREFORE CONTINUED TO DELAY ONSET
OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG UNTIL AROUND 12Z-16Z. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
DETERIORATE INTO MVFR TO IFR CAT WITH THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...
WITH SOME DZ/FZDZ POSSIBLE AS WELL... AND EVEN PATCHY LIGHT RAIN
OVER SOUTHEAST IA. LOCALLY LIFR OR VLIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN
DENSE FOG BY LATE DAY AND VERY EARLY EVE AS WINDS BECOME VERY
LIGHT AHEAD OF WEAK SFC LOW MOVING ALONG STALLED BOUNDARY. AS THE
LOW MOVES EAST DURING EVE EXPECT WINDS TO TURN WESTERLY AT 5-10
KTS WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT ON VSBYS AND CIGS.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 908 PM CST SUN JAN 15 2012/

UPDATE...
PREVIOUS MODELS OVERALL VERIFYING TOO MOIST WHEN COMPARED WITH
00Z DVN RAOB. 00Z NAM HOWEVER HAS COME IN DRIER AND MORE
REASONABLE BASED ON OBSERVATIONS. 925 MB CONVERGENCE (35 KTS
AT SLATER IA VWP COMPARED WITH 5 KTS AT WOOD LAKE MN VWP) WILL
FOCUS MAIN LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT TO OUR NORTH LATE EVE INTO THE
OVRNGT. MAIN SURGE OF STRATUS WITHIN DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
PUSHING NWD THROUGH EASTERN OK AND WESTERN AR ATTIM. THESE
CLOUDS LIKELY TO MOVE OR DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA LATE TNGT.
BASES LIKELY TO BE AOA 3KFT WHICH NOT SUPPORTIVE OF DZ AND HAVE
REMOVED MENTION OVRNGT. PRESSURE GRADIENT AND LOW LEVEL JET TO
CONTINUE AIDING GUSTY WINDS INTO THE OVRNGT... BUT DO EXPECT THEM
TO DROP OFF WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RVR AS A FRONTAL ZONE
APPROACHES. WITH BL STAYING WELL MIXED MOST OF THE NGT AND
BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DELAYED HAVE ALSO REMOVED FOG MENTION.
LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE IS PROGGED INTO CWA OVRNGT... WHICH
COUPLED WITH GUSTY WINDS MAY LEAD TO STEADY OR EVEN A BIT OF RISE
ON TEMPS IN SOME AREAS... BUT BANKING ON DIMINSHING WIND LATE TO
ALLOW DROP OFF TO FCST LOWS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 PM CST SUN JAN 15 2012/

SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED ALONG THE NORTH DAKOTA/CANADA BORDER
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A WARM FRONT EXTENDED SOUTH FROM THE LOW
THROUGH WESTERN IA AND WESTERN MO. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
THE FRONT HAS PUSHED TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW 40S OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CWFA WITH TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING THROUGH THE LOW 30S
IN THE NORTHEAST. THE AIRMASS WAS ALSO DRY WITH ONLY SOME THIN CI
LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE NORTHERN
PLAINS LOW WAS LOCATED AHEAD OF A POTENT UPPER TROF DIGGING INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AT 12Z HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF THE TROF WERE
AROUND 150M AT 300MB AND 500MB.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY...
THE NORTHERN PLAINS SURFACE LOW WILL HEAD NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN
ONTARIO BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE WARM FRONT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS
THE REGION THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE REGION MONDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

MAIN CONCERNS TONIGHT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL SATURATION OF THE LOW
LEVELS LEADING TO SOME FOG AND FREEZING DRIZZLE NORTH AND DRIZZLE SOUTH.
THE NAM IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SCENARIO SHOWING THE NEAR
SURFACE LAYER SATURATING BY 03Z OVER THE NORTHERN CWFA. HOWEVER
THE NAM WAS NOT VERIFYING ITS 2M TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS VERY
WELL SO FAR TODAY. WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AND EXTENT OF
SATURATION TONIGHT OPTED TO KEEP A MENTION OF DZ/FZDZ AND FOG
AFTER MIDNIGHT. IF THE DRIER GFS VERIFIES THEN THESE CONDITIONS
WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL MONDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE CLOUD DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT SO ALLOWED FOR PLENTY
OF ROOM TO FALL WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR KEEPING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
THROUGH THE EVENING.

MONDAY THE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE CWFA DURING THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECT STRATUS/DRIZZLE/FOG BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE
NORTH DURING THE MORNING. A SURGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH MOVE
OVER THE SOUTHERN CWFA AHEAD OF THE FRONT EARLY MONDAY. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN MORE WIDESPREAD DRIZZLE AND FOG FOR THE SOUTH
WITH THE MID LEVELS REMAINING DRY. HOWEVER...A CHANCE OF RAIN WAS
MAINTAINED WITH SOME FORCING OCCURRING WITH THE FROPA. EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER...SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION AND THE FROPA SHOULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM RISING TOO MUCH SO ALLOW FOR 5 TO 10 DEGREE RISE
MOST AREAS. ..DLF..

LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY...

MONDAY NIGHT...LATEST 12Z RUN MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF SUGGESTING
APPROACHING L/W TROF TO INDUCE WAVE DEVELOPMENT ON PASSING SFC
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACRS CENTRAL IL AND THEN PROPAGATE UP INTO
NORTHEASTERN INDIANA THROUGH TUE MORNING. SOME SECONDARY ELEVATED
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING BETWEEN THIS LLVL CYCLOGENESIS AND THE
APPROACHING UPPER TROF SHOULD LINGER PRECIP ACRS MUCH OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN 2/3S OF THE DVN CWA MON EVENING. BUT MOISTURE DEPTH
FOR THIS LIFT TO UTILIZE TO GENERATE MUCH OF ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP
STILL APPEARS MARGINAL AT THIS POINT AFTER THE LIGHT RAIN EXITS THE
EAST EARLY...THUS IT MAY BE MORE OF A TRANSITION BACK TO A DRIZZLE
PHENOMENA MON EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. AND WITH SFC TEMPS COOLING IN
THE INCOMING LLVL COLD CONVEYOR IT COULD LEAD TO SOME FREEZING
DRIZZLE. FCST SOUNDINGS FLUCTUATE WITH JUST ENOUGH SATURATION FOR
FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW OR JUST DRIZZLE SO WILL MENTION BOTH FREEZING
DRIZZLE OR LIGHT SNOW FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. APPROACHING TROF INDUCES
ENOUGH TOP-DOWN SATURATION AND THUS ICE NUCLEI FOR ALL SNOW FROM THE
WEST LATE IN THE WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN CWA...BUT THIS PROCESS TO
BE MORE REALIZED ON TUE. A FEW TENTHS OF NEW SNOWFALL POSSIBLE BY
TUE MORNING IN THE NORTHWEST. WILL GO WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS IN THE
NORTHWEST...AND THE MID 20S IN THE SOUTHEAST.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...LATEST GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS THAT THE
SFC CYCLONE TO CONTINUE TO DEEPEN ACRS THE GRT LKS ON TUE AND
PROBABLY BELOW 1K MB JUST EAST OF THE DETROIT AREA. TIGHT CYCLONIC
GRADIENT TO THE WEST OF THIS PROCESS AND ROBUST CAA TO MAKE FOR
WINDY RAW CONDITIONS ON TUE WITH NORTHWESTERLY GUSTS POSSIBLY UP TO
35+ MPH AT TIMES. WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND ZERO
EVEN DURING THE DAY. UPPER TROF AND ELEVATED FORCING TO PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES...WITH AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF
I80 GETTING UP TO AT LEAST AN INCH OF NEW SNOWFALL. THE SNOWS TO LAST
THROUGH LATE TUE AFTERNOON BEFORE THE UPPER TROF AXIS PASSES ACRS LK
MI BY TUE EVENING AND SUBSIDENCE TAKES OVER IN ITS WAKE. POTENTIAL
FOR SOME 1-2 INCH AMOUNTS BY TUE EVENING ALONG THE HWY 20 CORRIDOR.
CLEARING AND COLD CONDITIONS TUE NIGHT WITH PASSING LLVL RIDGE
LOBE...SOME LOWS BELOW ZERO POSSIBLE IN AREAS NORTH OF I80...
OTHERWISE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO. 12Z RUNS STILL SUGGEST A PASSING
CLIPPER ACRS MN/WI IN FRESHLY ESTABLISHED BROAD NORTH-WESTERLIES...
TO USHER YET ANOTHER FRONT INTO THE CWA BY LATE WED NIGHT WITH
POSSIBLE FLURRIES OR POST FRONTAL LIGHT SNOW IN THE NORTH BY THU
MORNING. BIG TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THIS INCOMING FROPA BETWEEN THE
MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS...WITH THE GFS THE QUICKEST AND COLD AIR
ADVECTING CWA-WIDE BY THU MORNING WITH LOWS BACK INTO THE TEENS AND
SINGLE DIGITS...WHILE THE SLOWER ECMWF HAS PRE-FRONTAL WAA KEEPING
TEMPS AROUND 30 IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA THROUGH 12Z THU. WOULD BET
ON THE MORE PROGRESSIVE GFS IN THIS TYPE OF STEERING FLOW AND WILL
LEAN TOWARD THOSE LOW TEMP VALUES...BUT FOR NOW KEEP THE FCST DRY
THROUGH 12Z THU.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...LLVL BAROCLINICITY STILL TO GET ALIGNED
PARALLEL UNDER THESE MEAN FLOW NORTH-WESTERLIES ACRS OR NEAR THE
DVN CWA ON THU...AND ANY PASSING WAVE ALOFT IN THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW
COULD WRING OUT SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES ALONG THE LLVL THERMAL
RIBBON ON THU AND WILL CARRY LOW CHC POPS FOR THIS POTENTIAL. BUT
LATEST RUNS ARE TRENDING DRY WITH A PASSING SFC RIDGE THU AND THU
EVENING AFTER MORNING FLURRIES EXIT THE SOUTHEASTERN FCST AREA. THE
NEW 12Z RUN GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO PICK UP ON A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL TYPE CLIPPER-LIKE WAVE PROPAGATING DOWN IN THIS FLOW
ALONG THE BAROCLINICITY WHICH UTILIZES SOME GULF MOISTURE FEED FROM
THE SOUTH...BUT ARE CONTINUE TO VARY FROM RUN-TO-RUN HOW FAR NORTH OR
SOUTH THIS FEATURE WILL TRACK. THEY STILL SUGGEST A WAVE STRONG
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE 1-3 OR EVEN 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW ACRS THE NORTHERN
THIRD OR SO OF THE DVN CWA FROM LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI...WITH
ENOUGH OF A WARM DRAW ALOFT TO PRODUCE A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN...RAIN
OR SNOW IN THE SOUTH HALF. WILL KEEP MODERATE CHC POPS GOING FOR SNOW
ON FRI FOR NOW...AND CONTINUE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IN THE SOUTH.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LONG RANGE SIGNALS SUGGEST L/W TROF ENERGY TO
DIG ACRS THE WESTERN COAST...WITH RESULTANT FLATTENING FLOW TO MID
CONUS RIDGING TAKING PLACE BEHIND THE EXITING FRI SYSTEM OVER THE
WEEKEND. STRONG THERMAL MODERATION SIGNALS ARE THERE WITH A TAP INTO
ANOTHER ROUND OF BUILDING WARM POOL ACRS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
THERMAL PROFILES ARE ALMOST THERE TO SUPPORT HIGHS NEAR 50 BY NEXT
SAT WITH ENOUGH MIXING AND INSOLATION...BUT MUCH WILL DEPEND ON ANY
NEW SNOW COVER FROM THE FRI SYSTEM AND MOISTURE RETURN GOING INTO
CLOUD PRODUCTION LIMITING THE WARM UP POTENTIAL WHICH IS COMMON
IN THIS TYPE OF WAA SCENARIO. BUT THE NEW 12Z ECMWF SUGGESTS IF NOT
50 DEGREES ON SAT...SOUTHERLY MIXING FLOW WILL DO IT ON SUNDAY.
THIS IN CONTRAST TO THE GFS WHICH SAGS A LLVL BOUNDARY DOWN ACRS
THE AREA AND HANGS IT UP PARALLEL UNDER DEVELOPING SOUTH-WESTERLIES.
THIS FEATURE WOULD THEN ACT AS A LLVL MOISTURE CONVERGENT FOCAL POINT
FOR CLOUD...FOG AND POSSIBLE LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPMENT AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. STILL MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S. REGIONAL COLLABORATION
SUPPORTS MORE OF A GFS/ECMWF BLEND AND THAT IS WHAT WILL BE
ADVERTISED IN THE GRIDS WITH LOW CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN...BUT FEEL
THE DRY MILD ECMWF WILL WIN OUT WITH DELAY IN ADEQUATE MOISTURE RETURN.
12..

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CARIBOU ME

854 PM EST TUE JAN 17 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN MOVE EAST THURSDAY
EVENING. ANOTHER DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FROM MID ATLANTIC
STATES WILL MOVE TOWARD THE GULF OF MAINE THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPDATE...FCST RUNNING GOOD ATTM. RADAR INDICATING SOME HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION BURSTS IN THE FORM OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW. THIS
WAS CONFIRMED BY THE MLT ASOS AND REPORT IN SE AROOSTOOK COUNTY.
FZRA ACROSS INTERIOR DOWNEAST W/TEMPERATURES WARMING AND RAIN NOW
AT THE COAST. AWW FOR BIA UNTIL 10 PM FOR THE FZRA. CONCERN THAT
WARM WEDGE OF AIR MIGHT NOT MAKE IT AS FAR NORTH IS CURRENTLY
FCST. NUDGED TEMPERATURES ACROSS NE AROOSTOOK COUNTY DOWN A DEGREE
OR 2 AS THE LATEST RUC AND NOW THE NAM SHOWING THIS TREND. DRY
SLOT WORKING NE SHUTTING DOWN STEADIER PRECIPITATION. ADVISORIES
WILL REMAIN WHERE THEY ARE FOR NOW. WILL TAKE A LOOK AT THINGS A
BIT LATER TO MAKE DECISIONS ON HEADLINES.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ALL WNTR WX ADVS CONTD FOR OUR FA. LGT SN AND SLEET AND PERHAPS A
LITTLE FZRA OVR INTERIOR DOWNEAST AND E CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA ERLY
AND MID EVE SHOULD TRANSITION TO RN LATE THIS EVE AND OVRNGT
BEFORE ENDING THERE. FURTHER N OVR N CNTRL AND NE PTNS OF THE
FA...MODEL CRITICAL THICKNESSES AND NOMOGRAMS SUGGEST MORE OF THE
PRECIPITATION FALLING AS SN BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO A BRIEF PD OF
SLEET AND FZRA LATE TNGT...AND EVEN ENDING AS RN AS LLVL WARM AIR
IS ABLE TO PUNCH UP AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW TRACKING NE ALG THE ST
LAWRENCE VLY. OVR THE FAR NW...PRECIP SHOULD BE MSLY ALL SN...WITH
PERHAPS A MIX OF SLEET AND FZRA BEFORE ENDING.

WITH MORE QPF AND MOST OF THE PRECIP FALLING AS SN OVR NW PTNS OF
THE FA...GREATEST SNFL WILL DEFINITELY FALL OVR THE NW WHERE 3TO 5
IN ARE XPCTD WITH LCL 6 IN AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. AMOUNTS DROP OFF
PROGRESSIVELY S AND E...WITH COASTAL AREAS EXPERIENCING LITTLE IF
ANY SN ACCUMULATION AND NO ICE...WITH PRECIP ONLY BRIEFLY MIXED
WITH SNOW OR SLEET AT THE ONSET. TEMPS TNGT WILL INITIALLY HOLD
STEADY THIS EVE...THEN RISE SIGNIFICANTLY LATE TNGT...TO ABV FZG
SPCLY OVR SRN AND ERN PTNS OF THE FA...INCLUDING ERN AROOSTOOK
COUNTY.

AFT THE LOW TRACKS N AND E OF THE FA WED TOWARD LABRADOR...LLVL
COLD ADVCN ACCOMPANIED BY BRISK WNW SFC WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
ISSUE...WITH TYPICAL TRAILING SC CLD CVR AND SCT SN SHWRS OVR THE
N HLF OF THE FA. SOME CONCERN ABOUT WIND GUSTS POSSIBLY APCHG WIND
ADV CRITERIA WED AFTN WITH THE STRONGEST PTN OF THE BACK SIDE PRES
GRAD...SPCLY OVR HIER TRRN WRN PTNS OF THE FA. BREAKING FACTORS
PREVENTING WIND ADV WIND GUSTS HOWEVER INCLUDE HI SFC-BL STATIC
STABILITIES WITH ARCTIC AIR ADVCTG INTO THE FA ATTM...ALONG WITH
SC CLD CVR WHICH COULD PREVENT THE STRONGEST WINDS ALF FROM ARND
925 MB FROM REACHING THE SFC...XCPT HIER OPEN TRRN WHERE FEW
PEOPLE INHABIT. TEMPS WILL FALL CONTINUOUSLY FROM ERLY TO MID MORN
HI TEMPS TO THE TEENS N AND 20S S BY SUNSET. CANNOT RULE OUT THE
POSSIBILITY OF BLSN WITH THE STRONGER WINDS WED AFTN...BUT THIS
COULD BE LIMITED TO THE FAR NW WHERE TEMPS ARE NOT LIKELY TO GET
ABV FZG WED MORN...OTHERWISE OTHER AREAS GETTING SIG SNFL WILL
LIKELY SEE THE TOP LAYER GET SLUSHY...PREVENTING MUCH IN THE WAY
OF BLSN.

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE STATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST TOWARD THE REGION. EXPECT
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS SHOULD DROP OFF AFTER
MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY ALLOWING FOR SOME DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING BY
THURSDAY MORNING. EXPECT SUBZERO LOWS ACROSS THE NORTH AND ZERO TO
5 ABOVE DOWNEAST.

THURSDAY WILL BE A DRY DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST DURING
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF
THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL
BE 5 TO 10 ABOVE ACROSS THE NORTH AND 10 TO 20 ABOVE ACROSS MOST
OF DOWNEAST MAINE.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS QUEBEC THURSDAY NIGHT GIVING
WAY TO A WEAK SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE BY
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO TRACK RAPIDLY
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MARITIMES ON FRIDAY. CONSENSUS OF MODEL SOLUTIONS
LEAVES ENOUGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE TO GO WITH CATEGORICAL POPS LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. IT SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL
SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM. AT THE PRESENT TIME IT LOOKS LIKE MOST
AREAS WILL SEE LIGHT TO PERHAPS MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE...AS MOST OPERATIONAL MODELS
INDICATE THIS SYSTEM WILL BE RATHER PROGRESSIVE. IN ANY
EVENT...THE STEADIEST SNOW SHOULD TAPER TO SNOW SHOWERS BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE PULLING AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA AT THE
START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. AS SUCH EXPECT SNOW TO BE WINDING
DOWN FRIDAY NIGHT WITH COLDER AIR STREAMING INTO THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN BEHIND THE LOW SATURDAY. THEN ANOTHER
LOW WILL MOVE BY TO OUR SOUTH BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR SNOW TO MAINLY
SOUTHERN MAINE SATURDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER HIGH FOLLOWS WITH DRY WEATHER
RETURNING BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THEREAFTER DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE
LONG TERM MODELS BEGINS TO GROW. ANOTHER LOW WILL AFFECT THE REGION
EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT THE ECMWF SAYS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
WHILE THE GFS INDICATES MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. HAVE GONE WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE OR LOW CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. BOTH MODELS INDICATE HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS TUESDAY SO HAVE GONE DRY FOR THAT PERIOD. WITH
SEVERAL SYSTEMS PROGGED TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION TEMPERATURES WILL
BE FAIRLY UP AND DOWN. THEY SHOULD BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL DURING
THE SNOWY PERIODS BUT COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WHEN THE REGION
IS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: UPDATE...AWW OUT FOR BIA/BGR TIL 10 PM FOR FZRA.
PRECIP SHOULD GO ALL RAIN BY 10 PM.

PREVIOUSLY...INITIALLY LOW VFR OR MVFR LATE THIS
AFTN...TRANSITIONING TO IFR ALL SITES THIS EVE WITH PRECIP WITH SN
OVR NRN SITES TRANSITIONING TO MIXED PRECIP LATE TO VERY LATE TNGT
AND MIXED PRECIP OVR DOWNEAST SITES TRANSITIONING TO SHWRS LATE
TNGT AS WARMER AIR MOVES NWRD. DOWNEAST SITES WILL TRANSITION
RAPIDLY TO VFR BY ERLY WED MORN WITH STRONG DOWNSLOPE WRLY WINDS
WITH NRN SITES TRANSITIONING TO MVFR WED MORN...WITH THOSE
CONDITIONS CONTG THRU THE REST OF THE DAY.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN LIKELY LATER THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY KBGR/KBHB TERMINALS IN SNOW.
VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH
PERHAPS SOME LINGERING IFR EARLY FRIDAY EVENING ACROSS THE FAR
NORTH DUE TO SNOW SHOWERS. LOW PRESSURE MOVING BY TO THE SOUTH OF
THE STATE WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR OR EVEN SOME IFR IN
SNOW SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE AND VFR RETURNS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL CONT THE GLW EARLIER ISSUED...BEGINNING LATE TNGT
WITH WSW WINDS AND CONTG THRU ALL OF THE DAY WED AS WINDS BECOME
WNW BEHIND DEPARTING DEEPENING LOW PRES. USED A BLEND OF NAM12 AND
GFS40 FOR WINDS AND KEPT CLOSE TO WW3 WV HTS FOR THIS UPDATE.

SHORT TERM: GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS BY
LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND THEN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS MAY THEN INCREASE TO NEAR GALE
FORCE BEHIND LOW PRESSURE ON FRIDAY.

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
MEZ001>006-010.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ011-
015>017-031-032.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CARIBOU ME

611 PM EST TUE JAN 17 2012

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPDATE...INCREASED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TONIGHT ESPECIALLY BACK ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS AS TEMPERATURES ARE COOLER AND
PRECIP IS HANGING ON AS SNOW. SOME OF THE WEBCAMS SHOWING SOME
ACCUMULATION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND INTERIOR
DOWNEAST IE., BROWNVILLE AND BANGOR. THEREFORE, 2-4 FOR THE
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND AROUND AN INCH FOR THE BANGOR REGION BEFORE
THE CHANGEOVER.THE LATEST RUC AND GFS MATCHING UP CLOSE TO THE
CURRENT CONDITIONS AND PLACEMENT OF THE LOW MOVING THROUGH THE
ONTARIO PROVINCE. TOUCHED UP TEMPERATURES A BIT AS THE LAMP
GUIDANCE SHOWS TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK W/THE INITIAL HIT OF SNOW
AND THEN TEMPERATURES MAKE THEIR CLIMB LATER THIS EVENING. ICE
GRIDS SHOWING LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF ICE. WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR
THIS AS AUGUSTA, FRYEBURG AND WATERVILLE SHOWING FZRA FOR AT LEAST
AN HR AND STILL CONTINUING.

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: INITIALLY LOW VFR OR MVFR LATE THIS AFTN...TRANSITIONING
TO IFR ALL SITES THIS EVE WITH PRECIP WITH SN OVR NRN SITES
TRANSITIONING TO MIXED PRECIP LATE TO VERY LATE TNGT AND MIXED
PRECIP OVR DOWNEAST SITES TRANSITIONING TO SHWRS LATE TNGT AS
WARMER AIR MOVES NWRD. DOWNEAST SITES WILL TRANSITION RAPIDLY TO
VFR BY ERLY WED MORN WITH STRONG DOWNSLOPE WRLY WINDS WITH NRN
SITES TRANSITIONING TO MVFR WED MORN...WITH THOSE CONDITIONS CONTG
THRU THE REST OF THE DAY.

$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...VJN
MARINE...VJN/DUDA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WAKEFIELD VA

1034 PM EST TUE JAN 17 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL TRACK NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES AND OFF THE COAST EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PRODUCE RAIN OVER SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA
AND NORTH CAROLINA WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A WEAK TROUGH PASSES
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A RETURN OF HIGH
PRESSURE FRIDAY.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
QUICK UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST RADAR TRENDS THIS EVENING.
INCREASED POPS ACROSS WESTERN COUNTIES NEXT FEW HOURS IN RESPONSE
TO THE BAND OF SHOWERS QUICKLY APPROACHING THE AREA OUT AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT. LATEST RUC SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE WITH THESE
SHOWERS WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS WESTERN PIEDMONT COUNTIES THIS
EVENING. ALSO UPDATED HWO TO ACCOUNT FOR POTENTIAL WIND GUSTS TO
AROUND 40 MPH LATER TONIGHT WITH THE ACTUAL FROPA.

PREVIOUS DSCN:
THE LATEST WX ANALYSIS SHOWS A ~995 MB SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHERN
ONTARIO WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING TO THE SW INTO THE MID-SOUTH
THIS AFTN. VIS/IR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND LIGHTING DATA REVEALS
CONVECTION NEAR THE LOW CENTER AND ALONG THE SURGING BOUNDARY OVER
EASTERN SECTIONS OF OH/KY. TO THE SOUTHEAST...LATEST REGIONAL
RADAR MOSAIC CONTINUES TO SHOW LIGHT WAA RAIN PULLING OFFSHORE
ATTM...WITH A BRIEF LULL IN POPS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS.

OTHER ISSUE OF NOTE TODAY IS THE GUSTY WINDS. AKQ VWP CONTINUES TO
INDICATE A 40-50 KT LOW LEVEL JET BETWEEN 2-3KFT AGL AT 20Z.
DESPITE DIURNAL LIFTING OF THE LLJ...GUSTY SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS IN THE 20-25
MPH RANGE WL CONTINUE...W/FREQUENT GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH EXPECTED
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.

THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH RACES NORTHEAST INTO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND/SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY LATE TONIGHT, DRAGGING A STRONG COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY, NOTED ON MID-
AFTERNOON SAT IMAGERY OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST, WILL TRIGGER A
WAVE ALONG THE FRONT. HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS THAT THIS
FEATURE WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE
REGION, WITH LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS REMAINING FOR THE
TIDEWATER AND MOST OF NE NC...BUFFERED BY LOWER SHRA CHCS FARTHER
NORTH INTO RICHMOND METRO. QPF VALUES EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUITE
LIGHT...ON THE ORDER OF A QUARTER INCH OR LESS, WITH HIGHEST
AMOUNTS OVER NE NC. TEMPERATURES REMAIN VERY MILD THIS EVENING
MOST OF THE NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BEFORE FALLING LATE. A
BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONGER WIND GUSTS IS POSSIBLE AS THE COLDER AIR
RUSHES IN.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FRONT SLIDES OFFSHORE BY EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH RAPID CLEARING
ENSUING THROUGH THE MORNING OVER THE WEST...REACHING THE COAST BY
EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WL LKLY BE ACHIEVED
EARLY IN THE DAY AND SHOULD GENERALLY RUN IN THE LOW TO MID 40S N
AND W...AND IN THE LOW 50S SE EARLY BEFORE FALLING INTO THE UPPER
40S LATE.

WED NIGHT-FRIDAY...
QUIET AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. A PERIOD OF PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
MAINLY ACROSS COASTAL SITES, AS A MOISTURE STARVED MID-LEVEL
TROUGH PASSES ACROSS THE REGION FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF CLEARING
THURSDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD...SLIDING
OFFSHORE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. RESULTANT WAA THU AFTN/ EVENING WL
TRANSLATE TO INCREASING AFTN CLOUDINESS AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM AND
COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST.

WEAK COLD FRONT LOOKS TO CROSS INTO THE AREA AS IT WEAKENS/WASHES
OUT FRIDAY MORNING. AS SUCH...EXPECT A CLOUDY NIGHT THU
NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY AND LTL/NO PCPN WITH ITS PASSAGE. QUICK
CLEARING ONCE AGAIN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH CAA ON FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAIN FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS LO PRES TRAVERSING THE
EASTERN CONUS FRI INTO SAT. WAA PRECIP OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL
BEGIN SAT MORNING THROUGH MIDDAY. WARMING TRENDS IN LO-LEVEL
THICKNESSES SUGGEST THAT THE PRECIP WILL START MSTLY AS RN...BUT
SOME MIXED PRECIP MAY MIX IN OVER FAR NORTHERN AREA BEFORE QUICKLY
CHANGING TO ALL RN. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS TO 60% ON SAT AS MODELS
HAVE CONTINUED TO SHOW GOOD TIME CONTINUITY W/ THIS SYSTEM. TEMPS ON
SAT MAY HAVE A LARGE NORTH TO SOUTH SPREAD W/ A WARM FRONT IN THE
VICINITY...CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR HIGHS THAT RANGE FROM THE
UPR 40S OVER NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FA TO NEAR 60 OVER NE NC.

MID-LEVEL S/W RIDGE DEVELOPS ON SUN ALLOWING TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE
THE MID 50S TO LWR 60S IN MOST SPOTS. WARMING TREND CONTINUES INTO
MON AS A S/W TROUGH MISSES TO THE NORTH AND UPPER HEIGHTS RISE. A LO
PRES SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST MON NGT INTO TUE...BUT WILL
FORECAST SILENT POPS (20%) FOR NOW THIS FAR OUT IN TIME.

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 03Z...COLD FRONT OVER WEST VIRGINIA WILL MOVE QUICKLY E/SE AND
MOVE THROUGH RIC/SBY ARPIMD 08Z AND THROUGH ECG AROUND 11Z. WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL OCCUR NEAR THE FRONT. A WIDESPREAD AREA OF
PCPN WILL DEVELOP FURTHER SOUTH AROUND MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO
MID MORNING. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS THE BOUNDARY
LAYER IS RELATIVELY DRY...BUT WHERE STEADY PCPN DEVELOPS...
ESPECIALLY AT ECG...PERIODS OF MVFR ARE LIKELY.

SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE GUSTY AT TIMES THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING.
GUSTY NW/N WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT. MODELS INDICATE A
LACK OF HIGH CLOUDS ON WEDNESDAY AND CLEAR SKIES ARE FORECAST ONCE
THE LOWER CLOUDS CLEAR.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND LOWER AVIATION CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND...MAINLY ON SATURDAY AND
EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE BY SUNDAY.

.MARINE...
LO PRES OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH INTO QUEBEC
TONIGHT...SLIDING A COLD FRNT THRU THE LOCAL AREA. AHEAD OF THE
FRNT...SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE EVERYWHERE W/ SW WINDS 15-25 KT
GUSTING TO 30 KT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5-7 FT OVER THE LOWER EASTERN
SHORE COASTAL ZONES. THE FRNT SHOULD CLEAR THE WTRS BY 12Z...W/ AN
ENSUING QUICK CAA SURGE PRODUCING WINDS OCCASIONALLY UP TO GALE
FORCE. AT THIS POINT WILL STICK W/ THE CURRENT SCA IN EFFECT AND
WILL HANDLE ANY SHORT-DURATION GALE FORCE GUSTS W/ A SMW. NW WINDS
BEHIND THE FRNT WILL ALLOW SEAS OVER THE NC COASTAL ZONE TO
CONTINUE AT 4-6 FT UNTIL WED EVENG...SO WILL KEEP SCA IN EFFECT
UNTIL THEN. WINDS WILL STEADILY DIMINISH WED EVENG/NGT AS HI PRES
BLDS IN FM THE W. ANOTHER COLD FRNT CROSSES THE WTRS THU NGT
FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO HI PRES FRI.

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ANOTHER ROUND OF BELOW NORMAL TIDES IS EXPECTED WITH THIS EVENING`S
LOW TIDE CYCLE. TIDAL LEVELS COULD REACH 1-1.5 FT BELOW MLLW.

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>634-
650-652-654-656.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ658.

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM/LSA
NEAR TERM...LSA
SHORT TERM...MAM/AJZ
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...MAS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WAKEFIELD VA

700 PM EST TUE JAN 17 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
THIS EVENING...WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE
MID ATLANTIC LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO...AND THEN OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. A WEAK TROUGH PASSES ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT
FOLLOWED BY A RETURN OF HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
QUICK UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST RADAR TRENDS THIS EVENING.
INCREASED POPS ACROSS WESTERN COUNTYS NEXT FEW HOURS IN RESPONSE
TO THE BAND OF SHOWERS QUICKLY APPROACHING THE AREA OUT AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT. LATEST RUC SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE WITH THESE
SHOWERS WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS WESTERN PIEDMONT COUNTYS THIS
EVENING. ALSO UPDATED HWO TO ACCOUNT FOR POTENTIAL WIND GUSTS TO
AROUND 40 MPH LATER TONIGHT WITH THE ACTUAL FROPA.

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 23Z...COLD FRONT OVER ERN OHIO WILL MOVE QUICKLY E/SE AND MOVE
THROUGH RIC/SBY BETWEEN 06 AND 08Z PER NAM/RUC AND THROUGH ECG
AROUND 10Z. A BAND OF RAIN OVER THE VA PIEDMONT WAS ASSOCIATED WITH
A PRE-FRONTAL LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE THAT WILL IMPACT NORTHERN
TAF SITES DURING THE EVENING HOURS. A MORE WIDESPREAD AREA OF PCPN
WILL DEVELOP FURTHER SOUTH AROUND MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO MID
MORNING. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS
RELATIVELY DRY...BUT WHERE STEADY PCPN DEVELOPS...ESPECIALLY AT
ECG...PERIODS OF MVFR ARE LIKELY.

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ANOTHER ROUND OF BELOW NORMAL TIDES IS EXPECTED WITH THIS EVENING`S
LOW TIDE CYCLE. TIDAL LEVELS COULD REACH 1-1.5 FT BELOW MLLW.

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM/AJZ
NEAR TERM...MPR/MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM/AJZ
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...MAS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

650 PM EST TUE JAN 17 2012

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS

.SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 503 PM EST

12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW STRONG UPR
DISTURBANCE IN THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY AND ACCOMPANYING SFC LO OVER
SRN LWR MI MOVING STEADILY TO THE E. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IS A BIT
FARTHER N OVER MN. ALTHOUGH THE SHARPER DYNAMICS/WAD/MORE
SUBSTANTIAL MSTR ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN DISTURBANCE IS
REMAINING TO THE S...ENHANCED H4-2 DVGC OVER THE CWA IN RRQ OF UPR
JET JUST S OF JAMES BAY AND THE UPR JET TO THE S THAT IS SUPPORTING
THE SOUTHERN SHRTWV AS WELL AS SLOPED FGEN ON THE COLD SIDE SYNOPTIC
FNT TO THE SE IS PROVIDING ENUF LIFT TO OVERCOME GENERAL CAD AT H85
TO BRING A WIDESRPEAD SN. THIS PCPN IS HEAVIEST IN THE N WIND SN
BELTS NEAR LK SUP WHERE THE INCOMING AIRMASS...H85 TEMPS AOB
-15C...IS CAUSING SOME ENHANCEMENT TO THE SN WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL N
WIND SHOWN ON THE MQT VWP THRU 8K FT MSL. SPOTTER NEAR IWD REPORTED
6-8 INCHES OF SN AS OF ABOUT 1630Z. HOWEVER...LATEST RADAR TRENDS
SHOW DIMINISHING MSTR/RETURNS ARRIVING W-E AS DISTURBANCES ARE
MOVING STEADILY E IN PROGRESSIVE UPR FLOW. UPSTREAM ARCTIC AIRMASS
IN MN IS QUITE DRY/STABLE PER 12Z INL RAOB...WHERE THE 12Z H85 TEMP
WAS -19C. SFC TEMPS ARE NOT MUCH ABV ZERO F IN THIS AREA...WITH
DEWPTS WELL BLO 0F.

.SHORT TERM /TNGT AND WED/... ISSUED AT 503 PM EST

MAIN FCST CONCERNS ARE LES TRENDS/AMOUNTS AND GOING HEADLINES/NEED
TO MAKE ANY ADJUSTMENTS TO THESE.

TNGT...AS PAIR OF DISTURBANCES/UPR JETS SHIFT TO THE E...SHRTWV RDG
AXIS/DRIER AIR IS PROGGED TO FOLLOW INTO THE UPR LKS. LINGERING
SYNOPTIC PCPN SHOULD DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTN OVER THE E WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF THE DRYING ALF AND RECENT RADAR TRENDS. ALTHOUGH THE
INCOMING AIRMASS WL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENTLY COLD FOR LES WITH H85
TEMPS FALLING TO ARND -20C...THE DRYNESS/STABILITY OF THE UPSTREAM
AIRMASS AS WELL THE STEADILY BACKING WINDS ACCOMPANYING THE MOVEMENT
OF SFC HI PRES INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY BY 12Z WED WL TEND TO
LIMIT LES AMOUNTS. FCST SDNGS FOR IWD SHOW INVRN BASE SINKING TO 2K
FT AGL BY 12Z WITH A SW SFC WIND...SO LES SHOULD END ENTIRELY THERE
BY THAT TIME. LES WL BE MORE RESILIENT E OF MQT WITH LONGER FETCH...
MORE PERSISTENT LLVL CNVGC AND INVRN BASE HANGING CLOSER TO 5K FT
MOST OF THE NGT. WITH BACKING LLVL FLOW/ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR...
EXPECT THE LOWEST MIN TEMPS OVER THE INTERIOR W HALF...WHERE SOME
CLRG IS LIKELY GIVEN DRYNESS OF UPSTREAM AIRMASS.

AS FOR HEADLINES...PLAN TO ALLOW THE GOING WRNGS/ADVYS FOR THE W TO
EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 00Z. OPTED TO CANX BARAGA COUNTY WITH
UNFAVORABLE NNW FLOW...BUT EXTENDED THE MQT ADVY UNTIL 00Z TO
ACCOUNT FOR LINGERING SHSN TOWARD THE ALGER COUNTY LINE. WL LET THE
ALGER ADVY GO THRU THE NGT WITH BULK OF SHSN SHIFTING INTO THAT
AREA. CONSIDERED A HEADLINE FOR NRN SCHOOLCRAFT AND LUCE COUNTIES AS
WELL...BUT THESE AREAS MISSED OUT ON THE BULK OF THE SN TDAY. WITH
SHIFTING WINDS TNGT... SUSPECT SN TOTALS IN THIS AREA WL BE LESS
THAN THE 3-5" INDICATED BY LES CHART FOR EXPECTED CONDITIONS EVEN
THOUGH THERE MAY BE PERIODS WHERE LLVL CNVGC IS ENHANCED BY LAND
BREEZE FLOW OFF ONTARIO.

WED...NEXT SHRTWV IN PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALF IS FCST TO MOVE FM THE NRN
PLAINS TO MN BY LATE IN THE DAY...WITH DVPA/WAD/DEEP LYR QVECTOR
CNVGC ARRIVING OVER THE W IN THE AFTN IN INCRSG SLY FLOW. WITH THE
BACKING FLOW...ANY LINGERING LES OVER THE KEWEENAW AND E OF GRAND
MARAIS WL SHIFT BACK INTO LK SUP. SINCE THE LO/MID LVLS WL BE
DRY...INITIAL DYNAMICS WL RESULT IN MAINLY THICKER MID/HI CLDS. WL
RETAIN GOING POPS ONLY FOR THE FAR W. WITH THE RETURN SSW FLOW OFF
LK MI...THERE COULD BE SOME LK CLDS/SHSN THERE AS WELL. BUT AIRMASS
APPEARS TOO DRY OVERALL TO SUPPORT MORE THAN LO CHC POPS.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT SFC LOW TO BE POSITIONED OVER
WESTERN LS AT 00Z THURSDAY TO RESIDE OVER CENTRAL LS/CENTRAL UPPER
MI BY 06Z...AND JUST EAST OF THE CWA BY 12Z THURSDAY. THERE ARE
SMALL DIFFERENCES WHICH SHOULD BE SMOOTHED OUT WITH ANOTHER RUN OR
2. THE 17/09Z SRF WAS THE SLOWEST/MOST NW OF THE OPTIONS WHILE THE
GFS WAS THE FARTHEST SOUTH. ALL SOLUTIONS WHERE STILL UNDER THE
RHELM OF POSSIBILITY.

THE SFC LOW WILL BE ASSISTED EASTWARD BY A 500MB TROUGH SWINGING
FROM MN AT 00Z THURSDAY...SLIDING EAST OF UPPER MI BY MID MORNING
THURSDAY. EVEN THROUGH HIGH PRESSURE WILL ATTEMPT TO BUILD IN FROM
THE DAKOTAS ON THURSDAY...A TYPICIAL LINGERING SFC TROUGH CAN BE
EXPECTED OVER LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY MORNING. THE
TROUGH SHOULD DIMINISH IN STRENGTH FRIDAY...BUT WILL QUICKLY BE
REPLACED BY ANOTHER TROUGH OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PUSHING
EASTWARD FROM THE DAKOTAS.

THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...PARTICULARLY INTERIOR WEST IF CLOUDS CLEAR OUT AS MUCH AS
EXPECTED.

DAYS 4 THROUGH 7...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
DISAGREEMENTS REMAIN WITH THE HANDLING OF THE FEATURE FOR THIS
WEEKEND. AT 500MB THE ECMWF IS APPROX 6 HOURS QUICKER THAN THE GFS
BY SUNDAY MONRNING. ADDING TO THE ISSUES THE CANADIAN IS NEARLY FLAT
WITH THE INCOMING THROUGH...WHILE THE ECMWF/GFS SHOW SIMILAR
STRENGTH. IN SUPPORT OF THE ECMWF...THE 17/00Z ENSEMBLE RUNS OF THE
GFS WERE GENERALLY QUICKER THAN THE OPERATIONAL GFS.

LOOK FOR A DOMINANT RIDGE TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEKEND...AND BUILD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
MONDAY...BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY. MORE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES CREEP IN MODEL WISE FOR
DAY7/TUESDAY. THE ECMWF STRENGTHENS THE 500MB TROUGH OFF THE WEST
COAST SUNDAY INTO A SIZABLE CUT OFF LOW ACROSS AZ/NM MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE. EITHER
WAY...THE NEXT 500MB TROUGH WILL LIKELY SLIDE IN DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY.

.AVIATION /FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

GRADUAL BACKING OF WINDS FROM NW TO SW TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING WILL
BRING AN END TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS...AND MVFR CIGS WILL CLEAR
OUT. LINGERING FLURRIES AND MVFR GIGS SHOULD CLEAR OUT AT KIWD
AROUND 05Z. AT KSAW...-SHSN WILL DIMINISH TO FLURRIES THIS
EVENING...AND MVFR CIGS SHOULD CLEAR OUT AROUND 10Z. AT KCMX...
OVERLAKE TRAJECTORIES WILL MAINTAIN FREQUENT -SHSN THRU THE NIGHT
WITH MVFR VIS AT TIMES FALLING TO IFR FOR BRIEF PERIODS. WIND SHIFT
TO THE S WED MORNING MAY BRING A PERIOD OF IFR VIS IN HEAVIER SNOW
SHOWERS AS THE NORTHWARD MOVING CONVERGENCE ZONE PASSES. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES WED AFTN.

.MARINE /FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE/...

EXPECT N WINDS UP TO 30 KTS EARLY THIS EVNG TO DIMINISH WITH
APPROACH OF HI PRES RIDGE FROM THE W. AS THIS HI CENTER SHIFTS TO
THE E WELL S OF THE UPPER LAKES...THE FLOW WILL ALSO BACK STEADILY
TO THE S ON WED AND INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY/EVNG AS ANOTHER LO PRES
CENTER MOVES TOWARD WESTERN LAKE SUP. ONCE THIS LO MOVES BY TO THE
E...A STRONG NW WIND WILL DRIVE BITTERLY COLD ARCTIC AIR OVER THE
AREA ON THU. THE MIXING ENHANCED BY THE CONSIDERABLE OVERWATER
INSTABILITY WILL DRAG STRONG NW WINDS TO THE SURFACE...SO MAINTAINED
GALE WATCH FOR WED NIGHT THRU THU. ALSO OPTED TO ISSUE HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY WATCH FOR LATE WED NGT THRU THU NGT FOR ALL LK ZNS
WITH THE BITTERLY COLD AIR MOVING OVERHEAD. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFT
THU NGT WITH WEAK PRES GRADIENT DOMINATING INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

UPPER MICHIGAN...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING
FOR MIZ002-009.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ005.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ006.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
FOR LSZ264-266-267.

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING FOR LSZ264>267.

GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR
LSZ162-263.

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING FOR LSZ162-263.

GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
LSZ265.

LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE.

SYNOPSIS...KC
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

433 PM EST MON JAN 16 2012

.SYNOPSIS...

12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW GENERAL WRN TROF/
ERN RDG PATTERN ACRS NAMERICA. THERE IS A STRONG DISTURBANCE/120KT
H3 JET MAX IN ONTARIO EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WSW FLOW ALF...AND
ATTENDANT COLD FNT IS PRESSING TOWARD WRN UPR MI EARLY THIS AFTN.
THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF LO CLD IN THE RELATIVELY MILD SSW FLOW AHEAD
OF THIS FNT WITH 12Z GRB RAOB SHOWING THIN SATURATED LYR ARND
H925...BUT MID LVL DRYNESS SHOWN ON THAT RAOB IS PREVENTING ANY
PCPN. TEMPS DROP OFF SHARPLY BEHIND THE APRCHG COLD FNT WITH
READINGS OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD FALLING TOWARD 10F. 12Z INL RAOB
INDICATED A SHARP INVRN NEAR H9 ABV THIS FAIRLY SHALLOW INFUSION OF
COLD AIR...AND THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF LO CLD/SOME -SN IN THAT AREA
AS WELL. FARTHER UPSTREAM...BITTERLY COLD AIR IS PRESENT OVER THE W
HALF OF CANADA...WITH H85 TEMP AS LO AS -32C AT CALGARY. SOME OF
THIS COLD AIR IS SPILLING INTO THE NRN PLAINS...WHERE SFC TEMPS ARE
NOT MUCH ABV ZERO IN NDAKOTA. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ARE NOTED WITHIN
THE WRN TROF...AND THERE IS A SOMEWHAT ILL DEFINED COMMA CLD NOTED
ON WV IMAGERY PUSHING INTO THE NRN PLAINS. BUT GENERAL DRYNESS IN
THAT AREA INDICATED BY H7 RAOBS HAS LIMITED THE PCPN COVERAGE.
&&

.SHORT TERM /TNGT AND TUE/...

MAIN FCST CONCERNS DURING THIS PERIOD REVOLVE ARND SN CHCS/AMOUNTS
AS COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE UPR LKS AT SAME TIME DISTURBANCE IN THE
NRN ROCKIES MOVES BY JUST TO THE S.

TNGT...DISTURBANCE MARKED BY ILL DEFINED COMMA CLD IN THE NRN PLAINS
IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE NCNTRL PLAINS BY 12Z TUE...WITH SFC LO
NOW TAKING SHAPE IN THE PLAINS DRIFTING NEAR LOWER MI. MEANWHILE...
COLDER AIR TO THE NW WL SLOWLY INFILTRATE THE UPR LKS AS THE LLVL
WIND TURNS MORE TO THE N...DROPPING H85 TEMPS TO ARND -15C OVER WRN
LK SUP TO -10C OVER THE E. WITH OPEN WATER TEMPS ARND 3C...THE
ARRIVAL OF THIS INCOMING AIRMASS WL BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE LES W
TO E. ALTHOUGH THE SHARPER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE PLAINS SHRTWV
WL TEND TO BE FOCUSED JUST S OF UPR MI...THE 12Z NAM/GFS SHOW DEEPER
MSTR ARRIVING MAINLY OVER THE NW HALF OF THE CWA OVERNGT WHERE UPR
DVGC/H7-5 FGEN WL BE MAXIMIZED IN RRQ OF 120KT H3 JET MAX MOVING TO
NEAR JAMES BAY. FCST SDNGS SHOW THE ASSOCIATED OMEGA WL BE MAXIMIZED
FAIRLY HI CLOSER TO THESE HIER LVL FORCING MECHANISMS...SO POTENTIAL
FOR TRUE LK ENHANCEMENT IS PROBABLY MINIMAL. WITH GREATER OVERWATER
INSTABILITY AND SHARPER LLVL CNVGC OVER THE FAR W NEAR IWD PER NAM
FCST...EXPECT HEAVIER SHSN THERE IN THE PRESENCE OF FVRBL UPSLOPE N
WIND. ALTHOUGH THE LLVL FGEN WL BE SHARPER OVER THE SE ZNS CLOSER TO
THE SFC LO/FNT TO THE SE... THE AIRMASS APPEARS WL BE TOO DRY
OVERALL FOR ANY SGNFT PCPN THERE THRU 12Z.

TUE...UPR DISTURBANCE/SFC LO TO THE S WL SHIFT TO THE E...WITH
TRAILING SFC HI PRES FCST TO SHIFT TOWARD WRN MN BY LATE IN THE DAY.
DEEP MSTR ASSOCIATED MAINLY WITH HI LVL FORCING RELATED TO COUPLED
UPR DVGC IN RRQ OF UPR JET TO THE NE/LEFT EXIT OF JET SUPPORTING
SHRTWV IN THE LOWER LKS AND H7-5 FGEN WL EXIT W-E IN THE AFTN. BEST
CHC FOR WDSPRD PCPN WL BE INTO MID AFTN...WHEN MODELS SHOW SHARPER
UPR DVGC AND LINGERING FGEN TENDING TO EXIT TO THE E. ALTHOUGH PURE
LES WL LINGER EVEN AFT THE EXIT OF THE DYNAMICS AS H85 TEMPS TUMBLE
TOWARD -20C WITH INFLUX OF ARCTIC AIR TO THE NW...STEADILY BACKING
WINDS IN THE AFTN WL TEND TO LIMIT LES BAND RESIDENCE TIME AND
ACCUMS. AWAY FM LK MOISTENING...PLAN ON NO MORE THAN 1 TO 2 INCHES
OF SN WITH BETTER OMEGA ABV THE DGZ AND H85 CAD TENDING TO OFFSET
THE UPR DVGC/FGEN. EXPECT LTL DIURNAL RISE OF TEMP AS BITTERLY COLD
AIRMASS IN THE NRN PLAINS FOLLOWS INTO THE UPR LKS.

AS FOR HEADLINES...RETAINED GOING ADVY FOR GOGEBIC/ONTONAGON ZNS
WITH MOST FAVORABLE OVERWATER INSTABILITY/FETCH/UPSLOPE WIND
COMPONENT. OPTED TO ISSUE AN ADVY FOR BARAGA/MQT AS WELL FOR THE
09Z-21Z TIME WITH THE SAME FAVORABLE PARAMETERS. WITH WSHFT TO THE
NW ON TUE AFTN...THE HEAVIER SHSN SHOULD END IN THIS AREA EVEN
EARLIER THAN OVER THE W. COORDINATED WITH DLH ON HEADLINES FOR IWD
AREA.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

TUESDAY NIGHT...
THE 500MB THROUGH CURRENTLY SET UP ACROSS MT THROUGH NV AND S CA
WILL BE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD AT 00Z WEDNESDAY...WITH THE MAIN LOW
SLOWLY SWINGING ACROSS CENTRAL TO NE CANADA. THE SFC LOW /FARTHER
EAST/ SHOULD BE JUST NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AT 00Z WEDNESDAY...WITH A
TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH UPPER MICHIGAN INTO FAR WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR. N-NW WINDS WILL PREVAIL INITIALLY WITH 850MB TEMPS
AVERAGING -18C.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...
BY 12Z WEDNESDAY THE TROUGH WILL RESIDE ACROSS EASTERN
UPPER MI...BEFORE BEING QUICKLY PUSHED EASTWARD BY MID MORNING
THANKS TO THE STRONG SFC RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH...AND ANOTHER LOW
NEARING FROM THE DAKOTAS. THE RESULT WILL BE WINDS BECOMING WESTERLY
AND SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE DAY...WITH LES HOLDING ON THE LONGEST
ACROSS THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND FAR EAST NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR /INTO
THE MID MORNING HOURS/.

A WEAK RIDGE TO ZONAL FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED ALOFT WEDNESDAY...BEFORE
THE NEXT TROUGH SWINGS IN FROM MN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING /ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC LOW/. EXPECT THE SFC LOW TO PUSH
OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CWA BY 00Z...CENTRAL BY 06Z...AND
RESIDE JUST TO OUR EAST BY 12Z THURSDAY. THE 06Z RUN OF THE GFS IS
THE WEAKEST AND FARTHEST SOUTH WITH THIS FEATURE /APPROX 220 MILES
SSE OF THE ECMWF/. THIS MAKES TIMING THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION
DIFFICULT...WITH THE ECMWF INDICATING A SHORT DRY PERIOD FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE THE KEWEENAW STAYS IN THE SNOW
IF THE GFS IS TO BE BELIEVED. AT THIS POINT...THE GFS LOOKS TO BE AN
OUTLIER...WITH LIMITED INPUT INTO THIS FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY ON.
THE 12Z GFS HAS MOVED CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS...SPLITTING THE
ORIGINAL 220 MILE DIFFERENCE IN HALF. ANY OF THE SOLUTIONS WOULD
BRING A CHANCE OF LES ON SOUTHERLY WINDS TO THE EASTERN CWA LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS...BEFORE THEY BECOME TOO
MUCH OUT OF A SW OR W DIRECTION /850MB TEMPS OF -11 TO -14C SHOULD
BE COLD ENOUGH/.

THE MAIN 500MB LOW WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH...SLOWLY
RETROGRADING WESTWARD FROM THE HUDSON BAY AREA TO AK BY THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK. A SIGNIFICANT TROUGH WILL STILL LINGER ACROSS N
HUDSON BAY FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

THE COLDEST AIR SEEN IN SOME TIME WILL SLIDE IN THURSDAY...DROPPING
TO -24C BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON GUSTY NW WINDS...WITH LIKELY SNOW
SHOWERS RETURNING TO THE AREA NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS WILL BE THE
CASE UNTIL WAA SW WINDS TAKE HOLD AGAIN FRIDAY MORNING. WILL KEEP
THIS SYSTEM MENTIONED IN THE HWO...AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR IT
CLOSELY FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR HEADLINES AS IT MOVES CLOSER.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
FCST MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN LATE
FRIDAY...WITH THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN KEEPING A TROUGH OVERHEAD WITH
THE GFS INDICATES MORE IN THE WAY OF SW FLOW. THESE DIFFERENCES
CONTINUE AND BECOME MORE DRAMATIC TROUGH MONDAY. THIS IS SEEN ON THE
SFC CHARTS AS WELL AT 00Z SUNDAY WITH THE LOCATION OF THE NEXT LOW
VARYING SOME 1K MILES BASED ON THE 16/06Z GFS AND 16/00Z ECMWF. THE
GFS HAS IT JUST NW OF LAKE SUPERIOR...WHILE THE ECMWF IS STILL
ORGANIZING THE FEATURE OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA. GIVEN ALL THE
DIFFERENCES...WILL NOT DEVIATE MUCH FROM AN AVERAGE/BLENDED SOLUTION.
&&

.AVIATION /FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

EVEN THOUGH A FEW BREAKS IN THE SC MAY DVLP THIS AFTN...EXPECT MVFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL INTO THIS EVNG ASSOCIATED WITH INCOMING COLD
FROPA. AS COLDER AIR BLOWS OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM WATERS OF LK SUP
TNGT...SHSN WL DVLP...ESPECIALLY WHEN DEEPER MSTR ASSOCIATED WITH
INCOMING UPR DISTURBANCE ARRIVES LATER. CONDITIONS SHOULD
DETERIORATE TO IFR THEN...WITH THE BEST CHC FOR LIFR LATE TNGT/TUE
MRNG AT IWD...WHERE OVERWATER INSTABILITY WL BE MAXIMIZED IN THE
PRESENCE OF FAVORABLE/CONFLUENT UPSLOPE N WIND.
&&

.MARINE /FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE/...

EXPECT N WINDS UP TO 30 KTS/SOME FREEZING SPRAY ON TUE WITH INFLUX
OF COLDER AIR IN THE WAKE OF LO PRES SHIFTING E THRU THE LOWER LKS.
WINDS WL DIMINISH AND BACK TO THE SW TUE NGT THRU WED WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A RIDGE AXIS AND AHEAD OF ANOTHER LO PRES SYSTEM. A
BITTERLY COLD AIRMASS WILL FOLLOW THIS LO AS NW WINDS INCREASE TO
AOA GALE INTENSITY /MAINLY THURSDAY/. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WILL BE A
GOOD BET OVER MOST OF THE LAKE /MAINLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
WEST/ BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH AGAIN BY LATE IN THE WEEK WITH THE
APPROACH OF ANOTHER HI PRES RDG.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 5 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
MIZ004-005.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 1 AM EST /MIDNIGHT CST/ TO 7 PM
EST /6 PM CST/ TUESDAY FOR MIZ002-009.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...KC
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

1217 AM EST MON JAN 16 2012

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 06Z TAFS

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... ISSUED AT 415 PM EST

LES CONTINUES OVER THE FAR EASTERN CWA...WITH VIS FALLING TO A MILE
AT TIMES AROUND 18Z THIS AFTERNOON AT ERY. THE LATEST SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATE THIS BAND SLOWLY SHIFTING WESTWARD INTO SCHOOLCRAFT
COUNTY. WHILE A QUICK HALF AN INCH OR SO AN HOUR COULD STILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST PORTIONS OF THE BAND...THE MOBILE NATURE
SHOULD KEEP ACCUMULATIONS IN CHECK THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS.

THE STRONG S-SW WINDS WILL BRING AN INFLUX OF WARM AIR TO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT 850MB TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW
ZERO...TOPPING OUT FROM THIS AFTERNOON MUCH OF THE PERIOD. EXTENT OF
THE WARM AIR SLIDING FROM EASTERN MN ACROSS N WI IS OF A
CONCERN...AS THE 15/15Z RUN OF THE RUC13 SHOWS TEMPS AROUND 0C NEAR
ID AS EARLY AS 03Z MONDAY /3 TO 5C WARMER THAN THE CONSENSUS/.
OTHERWISE...MOST OF THE WARM AIR SHOULD BE CONCENTRATED OVER THE
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA...TOPPING OUT 15Z MONDAY AROUND 0C FROM
CENTRAL WI THROUGH DELTA AND SOUTHERN MARQUETTE COUNTIES. WHILE ONE
FCST MODEL DOES SPIT OUT LITE PRECIP OVER THIS AREA AS EARLY AS
EARLY AFTERNOON TODAY...THE REMAINDER OF THE MODELS HOLD OFF UNTIL
AFTER 03Z MONDAY. WILL FOLLOW THE LATER AND ONLY INCLUDE FLURRIES
FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY...AS A SFC COLD FRONT/TROUGH NEARS FROM
CENTRAL MN. IF ANYTHING DOES FALL IT WOULD LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF
FZDZ OVERNIGHT...WITH THE BEST SNOW GROWTH LAYER AROUND 700MB AT
IMT...AND ALL THE MOISTURE STUCK BELOW THE INVERSION HOVERING AROUND
900MB. WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF FZDZ IN THE FCST AND THE HWO. LOW
CLOUDS REMAIN POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WITH THE WAA...AS MOISTURE
ESCAPES THE AVG 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW OVER N WI. DEW POINTS LOOK
MINIMAL FOR SIGNIFICANT MELTING THOUGH...EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE
LOW 20F RANGE AT BEST. THE BEST MOISTURE PLUME WILL LIKELY REMAIN
OFF LAKE MICHIGAN...SLIDING NE INTO MARQUETTE COUNTY BY LATE EVENING
BEFORE A MORE SW WIND TAKES HOLD.

AS FOR MONDAY...MUCH OF THE MOISTURE WILL SLIDE OUT OF THE CWA AS
WINDS TURN W AND NW THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS AS THE COLD FRONT
SHIFTS ACROSS. EXPECT THE SFC LOW TO BE OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO BY 12Z
MONDAY...WITH THE COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS W LAKE SUPERIOR AND IWD.
BY 18Z IT WILL LIKELY STRETCH ACROSS ALGER AND MENOMINEE
COUNTIES...BEFORE EXITING EAST BY 00Z. THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE
WIND SHIFT AND CLOUD COVER...WITH MUCH OF THE COLD AIR WAITING FOR A
UNTIL THE WINDS BECOME MORE NORTHERLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS. IT STILL SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO BRING LES TO THE FAR W...WITH
LIGHT AMOUNTS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE SURFACE LOW MOVES FROM THE MID
MS VALLEY TOWARD THE SRN GREAT LAKES AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH SWEEPS
THROUGH THE REGION. MODEL PREFERENCE REMAINS WITH THE MORE CONSISTENT
12Z/00Z ECMWF SUPPORTED BY THE UKMET WHICH BRING THE SFC LOW NEAR
CHICAGO BY 12Z/TUE AND TO DTW BY 18Z/TUE. THE GEM REMAINED STRONGER
AND FARTHER NORTH WHILE THE GFS WAS FARTHER SOUTH. MODERATE 700-300
QVECTOR CONV ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND UPPER LEVEL DIV
WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET OVER ONTARIO WILL
SUPPORT AN EXPANDING AREA OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS WI INTO UPPER MI LATE
MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. INCREASING NRLY WINDS WITH 850 MB TEMPS
DROPPING TO -15C BY 12Z/TUE AND TO NEAR -18C BY 18Z/TUE WILL LEAD TO
LAKE ENHANCED SNOW FOR NORTH WIND SNOWBELTS. NAM COBB SNOW/WATER
RATIO OUTPUT SUGGESTS THAT THE HIGHER SNOW/WATER RATIOS ARE MORE
LIKELY OVER THE WEST...WHERE THE COLD AIR ARRIVES EARLIER. SNOWFALL
TOTAL GENERALLY IN THE ADVY CATEGORY ARE EXPECTED WITH 18 HOUR
AMOUNTS IN THE 4 TO 7 INCH RANGE. SNOW AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR TWO AT
MOST ARE EXPECTED AWAY FROM LAKE SUPERIOR.

THE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE DEPARTS AND SUBSIDENCE ACYC FLOW
BUILD INTO THE AREA. WINDS GRADUALLY BACK MORE TO THE WNW ON TUES
NIGHT AS SFC RIDGE APPROACHES THE AREA. LES INTENSITY WILL CONTINUE
TO DIMINISH BUT WITH AMPLE INSTABILITY (850 MB TEMPS STILL AROUND
-19C). SO WITH SNOWBAND POSITIONS SHIFTING OVERNIGHT...ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHTER...GENERALLY IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE.

WEDNESDAY INTO THU...THE GFS WAS FASTER AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN QUICK WNW FLOW PATTERN. GIVEN LIMITED
CONFIDENCE WITH FCST DETAILS...ONLY CHANCE POPS FOR SYNOPTIC SCALE
SNOW WERE INCLUDED. NW FLOW LES WILL AGAIN DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF
THE LOW FROM LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU AS 850 MB TEMPS FALL INTO THE
-20C TO -25C RANGE.

THU NIGHT INTO FRI...AFTER A TRANSIENT RIDGE MOVES THROUGH THU
NIGHT...MODELS SUGGEST THAT A WAA PATTERN AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE AND SFC TROUGH COULD BRING LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA FRI.

SAT INTO SUN...ECMWF/GFS AND ASSOCIATED ENSEMBLES SHOW TRANSITION
TOWARD A MILDER PATTERN WITH A RETURN TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY SUN AND INTO NEXT WEEK. THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT PCPN
AS A WARM FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA...BUT ANY PCPN WOULD LIKELY BE
LIGHT.
&&

.AVIATION /FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AS EXPECTED. ALSO...
MORE FAVORABLE UPSLOPE COMPONENT OFF LAKE MICHIGAN HAS LED TO LOWEST
CIGS AT KSAW AS EXPECTED. IFR CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE AT KSAW FOR THE
NEXT FEW HRS BEFORE WINDS VEER SLIGHTLY...REDUCING UPSLOPING AND
ALLOWING CIGS TO RISE BACK TO LOW MVFR. MVFR CIGS SHOULD DEVELOP AT
KIWD/KCMX...THOUGH LOWER MVFR CIGS WILL PROBABLY HOLD OFF UNTIL COLD
FROPA IN THE MORNING WHEN WINDS SHIFT TO AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT. MVFR
CIGS SHOULD THEN PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THRU THE END OF THE FCST
PERIOD...THOUGH WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF CLOUDS SCATTER OUT FOR A
WHILE AT TIMES IN THE AFTN.

.MARINE /FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE/...

BETWEEN THE EXITING HIGH TO OUR SE...AND NEARING LOW TO THE
WEST...STRENGTHENING SW FLOW WITH GALES OF 35 TO 40KTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS /STRONGEST
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF LS/. LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
MANITOBA WILL SHIFT TO CENTRAL ONTARIO BY DAYBREAK MONDAY...AND EXIT
TO WESTERN QUEBEC WHILE DRAGGING A TROUGH ACROSS LS DURING
THE DAY MONDAY. AN ADDITIONAL LOW WILL RIDE ALONG THE TROUGH...FROM
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE EJECTING TO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES
TUESDAY EVENING. EXPECT A 30.2 INCH RIDGE TO BUILD ACROSS LS TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE DAKOTAS WEDNESDAY
MORNING WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE LOW WILL THE SHIFT TO WESTERN QUEBEC THURSDAY EVENING...WHILE
HIGH PRESSURE SINKS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL THEN FILL FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES...WHILE ANOTHER LOW NEARS FROM THE WEST.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

UPPER MICHIGAN...NONE.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY LSZ249>251-263-264-266-267.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY LSZ244-245-265.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY LMZ248-250.

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

532 AM CST MON JAN 16 2012

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE STATE
FROM W TO E THIS MORNING WILL BRING AN END TO THE BRIEF WARM-UP
FELT OVER THE WEEKEND FOR THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN STEADY OR FALL THROUGH THE DAY TDA AS WINDS SHIFT TO NW AND
BRING IN A REINFORCING SURGE OF COLDER AIR. THE FRONT WILL THEN
STALL OUT TO THE S AND E OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BUT
THIS FRONT WILL ACT AS A PATHWAY FOR AN AREA OF LOW PRES
DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO QUICKLY SHIFT NE TONIGHT
INTO TUE. IN CONJUNCTION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT
WILL SHIFT E THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY TNGT INTO TUE...LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED FOR VIRTUALLY ALL OF
THE WFO MPX COVERAGE AREA...ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN PORTIONS. THE
SPEED OF THE SYSTEM ALONG WITH LACK OF MOISTURE /ONLY A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH QPF EXPECTED/ WILL MEAN LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED...RANGING FROM AROUND 1/2 FOR CENTRAL MN TO 1
1/2 INCHES FOR SRN MN AND AROUND 1 INCH IN THE TWIN CITIES METRO
AND WRN WI. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH OF SEEING THESE MINOR SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS SO HAVE INCREASED POPS INTO THE LIKELY AND
CATEGORICAL RANGES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THE UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL
EJECT INTO THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY ON TUE...BRINGING AN END
TO THE SNOWFALL. INCOMING SFC HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL MAKE FOR SOME PARTIAL CLEARING DURG THE DAY...BUT IT
WILL NOT BE MUCH AND ESPECIALLY NOT ENOUGH TO WARM TEMPERATURES
MUCH ABOVE 10 DEGREES FOR HIGHS ON TUE. IN ADDITION...BREEZY
CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT FOR TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL PUSH
WIND CHILL READINGS INTO THE 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW ZERO RANGE.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH PRES WILL SKIP THROUGH THE
REGION QUICKLY TUE NIGHT...FOLLOWED NEARLY AS QUICKLY BY A
CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM FOR WED. THE TRACK OF THIS LOW WILL MOVE IT
FROM SD ACRS SRN MN INTO SRN WI...MAKING THE ONLY POSSIBLE CHC FOR
LIGHT SNOW OVER CENTRAL MN INTO WRN WI. EVEN THEN...CHCS ARE NOT
THAT GREAT FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW. THIS SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES INTO
THE GREAT LAKES WED NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER AREA OF COLD HIGH
PRES FOR THU WHICH WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO WITH LOWS THU MRNG IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE WX
PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND WITH THE TIMING OF AN ORGANIZED SYSTEM TO
PUSH THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MISS RIVER VALLEY LATE SAT
THROUGH SUN. SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE DISPLACED FAR ENOUGH N OF THE WFO
MPX CWFA TO PRODUCE ANY MEANINGFUL PRECIP...AND ENOUGH WARM AIR
LOOKS TO BE BROUGHT NORTH AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM SUCH THAT A RETURN
OF WELL-ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS LIKELY ALONG WITH A
PRECIPITATION REGIME THAT COULD BE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW AT
TIMES FOR LATE SUN OR SUN NIGHT. STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO RESOLVE
THE DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT ATTM IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE
ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT.

.AVIATION.../12Z TAF ISSUANCE/

SHORT TERM CONCERNS DEAL WITH DEVELOPING MVFR CIGS IN WC WI WHICH
IS PROGGED BY THE LATEST RUC TO INCREASE BY 15Z ACROSS ALL OF WC
WI...AND PORTIONS OF EC/SE MN. THIS WOULD AFFECT EAU/RNH...AND
POSSIBLY MSP. IN ADDITION...MVFR CIGS NEAR AXN WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
A TEMPORARY PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS BEFORE 16Z BASED ON UPSTREAM
CONDS. WNDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NW/NNW OR DEVELOP AT RNH/EAU BY
15-18Z. SOME EARLY MORE BR SHOULD LIFT AT RNH/EAU BY 14Z.

NEXT AVIATION CONCERN DEALS WITH DEVELOPING MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
-SN AS A DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES MOVES EAST TOWARD
THE UPPER MIDWEST BY LATE IN THE DAY. CURRENT TAFS HAD A GOOD
HANDLE ON TIMING/CIGS/VSBYS AS THE -SN DEVELOPS. BASED ON
FORECAST RADAR...AXN WILL LIKELY SEE FLURRIES AFT 21Z...WITH
CIGS/VSBY LOWERING BY 00-02Z/17. ELSEWHERE...TIMING WILL BE 2 TO 4
HRS AFT AXN...WITH THE WORSE CONDS LIKELY AT RWF AS DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL RESIDE IN THE AREA. WNDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE NNW
WITH SOME GUSTS EVEN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS ARND 18-22KTS.

MSP...MVFR CIGS TO THE NE OF THE AIRPORT SITE...OR ROUGHLY
40-60SM NE OF MSP...SHOULD HOLD IN THIS AREA. CONFIDENCE IS LOW
THESE CIGS WILL MOVE INTO MSP TAF AREA BY 14Z. SATELLITE TRENDS
NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR THIS SITUATION. NW/NNW WNDS ARND 12-14
KTS WITH GUSTS OF 18-22 KTS SHOULD CONTINUE THRU MOST OF THE TAF
PERIOD. AS -SN DEVELOPS THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...CIGS SHOULD
DECREASE TO MVFR WITH IFR CIGS/VSBYS LOOKING LIKELY AFT 6Z...WITH
THE WORSE CONDS BETWEEN 6-12Z. LATER SHIFTS CAN PIN POINT THE
BEST TIME FRAME WHERE IFR CIGS/VSBYS DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT. THE
-SN AND LOWER CIGS SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT AFT 15Z/17.

TUE AFT 18Z...VFR
WED...MVFR -SN POSSIBLE.
THU...VFR
FRI...MVFR/IFR -SN POSSIBLE. ..JLT..

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

JPC/JLT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

1107 PM CST SUN JAN 15 2012

.UPDATE...

06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION ADDED BELOW.

.UPDATE.../ISSUED 758 PM CST SUN JAN 15 2012/

STRATUS NOW BEGINNING TO FORM ACROSS WI...THOUGH MUCH FURTHER EAST
THAN GUIDANCE WAS INDICATING EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION...925 MB RH FORECASTS FROM THE RUC HAVE BEEN TRENDING THE
LOW STRATUS/FZDZ FURTHER EAST AS WELL WITH EACH SUBSEQUENT RUN. AS
A RESULT...UPDATED THE WEATHER GRID TO SHUNT FZDZ MENTION FURTHER
EAST...WITH ONLY A MENTION LEFT FOR LADYSMITH AND THE ERN SLIVERS
OF CHIP AND EAU CLAIRE COUNTIES IN WI. BEST FZDZ POTENTIAL LOOKS
TO REMAIN EAST OF THE MPX CWA AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR CLOSELY.

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 555 PM CST SUN JAN 15 2012/

ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY TODAY ACROSS THOSE PARTS OF THE AREA THAT
DON`T HAVE SNOW ON THE GROUND WHERE LOWER AND MID 40S APPEARED.
SNOW COVER ACROSS WC WI HELD TEMPS BACK IN THE MID 30S. BREEZY SOUTH
WINDS AHEAD OF CDFNT PLOWING ACROSS THE DKTS HAS PUSHED TEMPS TO
AROUND 50 NEAR THE IA BORDER IN SW MN.

CONCERN FOR THE OVERNIGHT IS WITH STRATUS TO FORM AHEAD OF CDFNT
MAINLY OVER THE SNOWPACK IN WI. SREF PROB CIGS AOA 1000 FT
CONTINUES WITH RAPID BLOSSOMING OF CLDS BY 06Z ACROSS THAT AREA. NAM
CONTINUES TO KNOCK OUT .01 QPF. PROGGED SOUNDSINGS SHOW THAT
FAVORED PCPN TYPE WOULD BE -FZDZ WITH ELEVATED WARM LAYER AND NO ICE
CRYSTAL FEEDERS FROM ABOVE.

TEMPS IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT CRASH QUICKLY WITH A FAIRLY COLD AIRMASS
BUILDING IN BEHIND. CURRENT TEMPS IN THE PRAIRIE OF SACK ONLY IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS ALMOST TO THE NODAK BORDER. MODELS CONTINUE TO
HAVE SOME ISSUES WITH -SN FOR LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...BUT THE
GENERAL TREND IS FOR A BIT SLOWER PROGRESSION OF PCPN ACROSS AREA
AS THE TROF NOW MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NW MOVES THRU AREA.
CONTINUED WITH LIKELY POPS...BUT FAIRLY LOW QPF AS UPPER TROF
FEEDS ONLY ON COLD ADVECTION AS IT PROGRESSES THRU AREA. SHUD SEE
FAIRLY WDSPD SNOW IN THE HALF INCH TO PERHAPS ONE INCH
RANGE...MAYBE A LITTLE MORE IN SC. ALSO HELD ONTO -SN THRU TUESDAY
MORNING SE CWA WITH GFS/EC/NAM AND SREF ALL CONTINUING TO SPIT OUT
LGT PCPN.

FAST MOVING ZONAL FLOW BRINGS ANOTHER WAVE THRU ON WEDNESDAY AND
ANOTHER ON FRIDAY. WITH BAROCLINIC ZONE REMAINING ACROSS AREA THEY
SHUD BE ABLE TO WRING OUT SOME -SN. PLACEMENT WILL BE AN ISSUE WITH
GFS KEYING MORE ONTO BRINGING WED -SN MORE ACROSS CENTRAL CWA WITH
OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS A BIT FARTHER NORTH. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
BE A CHALLENGE WITH THE PUSH-PULL OF ISOTHERMS ACROSS AREA AS
SYSTEMS MIGRATE THRU. COLDEST MORNING OF THE PERIOD WILL PROBABLY BE
THURSDAY WHEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN...BUT COLD WON`T LAST AS NEXT
PUSH OF VERY WARM AIR SURGES NORTH INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.

.AVIATION.../06Z TAF ISSUANCE/

STRATUS/FZDZ THAT WAS EXPECTED FOR WRN WI THIS EVENING HAS
DEVELOPED EAST OF EVEN EAU...SO HAVE ALL TERMINALS VFR THROUGH THE
REST OF THE NIGHT. AT THE SFC...FRONTAL FEATURE/TROUGH OVR AXN/RWF
NOW AND WILL BE WORKING EAST ACROSS THE TERMINALS TONIGHT. EXPCT
WINDS TO BE LGT AND VRB FOR A FEW HRS AS THE BOUNDARY
PASSES...BEFORE NW WINDS KICK UP BEHIND IT. ALREADY SEEING GUSTS
BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS NODAK...AND WITH NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS
SHOWING MIX DOWN WINDS GETTING INTO THE 20S...CONTINUED TO GO A
BIT HIGHER THAN GFSLAMP FOR WIND SPEEDS. CONFIDENCE IN WHAT WILL
HAPPEN WITH COLD AIR STRATOCU MONDAY NOT VERY HIGH. SREF PROBS
WOULD INDICATE MUCH OF THE AREA WILL HAVE MVFR CIGS BY THE
AFTERNOON...BUT RH PROFILES FROM ALL TERMINALS SHOWING MOISTURE
BEING RATHER SHALLOW...SO LEFT LOWER CLOUD LAYER SCATTERED DURING
THE DAY UNTIL THERE IS MORE CONFIDENCE ON WHERE/WHEN/IF THEY WILL
OCCUR. -SN WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO WRN MN AROUND 00Z. BASED TIMING
INTO MN TERMINALS ON SREF/NAM/MPXWRF TIMING...WHICH ARE ALL
SIMILAR. THE -SN WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW HRS BEYOND THIS PERIOD.
BESIDE THE SNOW...NNW WILL LIKELY NOT DIE DOWN MUCH MONDAY NIGHT.

KMSP...WINDS WILL BE LGT AND VRB FOR THE FIRST FEW HRS OF THE TAF
AS THE FRONT WORKS THROUGH. SKIES WILL REMAIN OVC...WITH CIGS
SLOWLY LOWERING THROUGH THE DAY. CONFIDENCE IN HOW POST FRONTAL
STRATOCU WILL UNFOLD NOT VERY HIGH...SO KEPT CONDITIONS VFR UNTIL
-SN BEGINS MOVING IN. BASED ON SREF PROBS FOR VIS LESS THAN
3SM...WINDOW WITH HIGHEST PROB FOR SNOW WILL BE FROM 06Z TO 15Z
MONDAY...WITH ACCUMS STILL LOOKING TO BE BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES.

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

DWE/MPG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION

NWS ST LOUIS MO

616 AM CST MON JAN 16 2012

.DISCUSSION...
/357 AM CST MON JAN 16 2012/

FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE SYSTEM TO AFFECT AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

MDLS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING MASS FIELDS WITH THIS SYSTEM.
THIS SYSTEM SEEMS TO BE MADE OF TWO FEATURES. ONE IS THE MAIN UPPER
TROF ACROSS THE PAC NW AND THE OTHER IS A S/W COMING ONSHORE THIS
MORNING OVER NRN BAJA. MDLS SUGGEST THESE TWO FEATURES CROSS THE
ROCKIES WITHOUT AMPLIFYING...AND ACTUALLY WEAKEN SOMEWHAT. WITH LACK
OF LEE CYCLOGENESIS...HAD SOME CONCERN THAT MDLS PROG SFC LOW TOO
FAR N. HOWEVER...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTS SFC LOW DEVELOP OVER
CNTL KS AND SEE NO REASON THE LOW WILL MOVE FURTHER S THAN MDLS
SUGGEST.

MDLS CONTINUE TO SLOW PROGRESSION OF COLD AIR BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM...LIKELY DUE TO LOW AMPLIFIED TROF. THIS TREND SEEMS
REASONABLE AND HAVE ALSO SLOWED ONSET OF COLD AIR BOTH AT THE SFC AS
DEPICTED IN TEMPS TONIGHT/TOMORROW AND IN PRECIP TYPE.

FOR TODAY...HAVE TRENDED TEMPS AOA WARMEST GUIDANCE. WAS SOME
CONCERN THAT CLOUD COVER TODAY WUD KEEP TEMPS DOWN.
HOWEVER...STRATUS HAS BEEN SLOW TO MOVE N AND STARTING THE DAY IN
LOWER TO MID 40S...50S TO MID 60S SHUD BE ATTAINABLE.

AS FOR PRECIP...HAVE PUSHED POPS BACK TO LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
BELIEVE MUCH OF THE QPF SUGGESTED BY MDLS IS DUE TO CLOUD SCHEME
PRECIPITATING IN AREA OF STRATUS. SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STRONG WAA SHUD
HELP KEEP WARM SECTOR AIRMASS CAPPED UNTIL EARLY THIS EVENING. HAVE
ALSO MOVED MENTION OF TS FIGHTER N. BASED ON SHEAR AND THERMAL
PROFILES...CAN NOT RULE OUT POSSIBILITY OF TSRA PRODUCING STRONG
GUSTS AND/OR HAIL ACROSS EXTREME SRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

FURTHER N...CNTL AND NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...MDLS SUGGEST RA WILL
CHANGE TO SN AS COLD AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE CDFNT. A SHORT PERIOD
OF SLEET IS POSSIBLE DURING THE TRANSITION...BUT SHUD BE SHORT
LIVED. MDLS SUGGEST LIGHT QPF AND THEREFORE HAVE ONLY MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS FCST FOR NOW. SOUNDINGS FOR PORTIONS OF CNTL MO
SUGGEST A LONGER PERIOD OF SLEET IS POSSIBLE...BUT HAVE LEFT AS SN
FOR NOW DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE. IS SOME CONCERN THAT SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST PRECIP ENDING AS FZDZ ACROSS CNTL MO FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUES MORNING. SOUNDS SUGGEST ICE CRYSTALS ARE LOST...HOWEVER...
BELIEVE THIS WILL BE THE END OF THE PRECIP AND HAVE NOT MENTIONED
FZDZ FOR NOW.

TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY FALL BACK BELOW SEASONAL AVG BEHIND
THIS CDFNT. MAX TEMP FOR TOMORROW WILL BE TEMP AT MIDNIGHT FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA WITH TEMPS CONTINUING TO FALL THRU THE DAY. TRENDED TWD
THE COOLEST GUIDANCE FOR TUES AND TUES NIGHT. WITH SWLY FLOW
EXPECTED ALREADY BY WED...HAVE TRENDED TWD THE WARMER GUIDANCE
AGAIN.

FOR THE EXTD...WITH A FOCUS ON THE SHORT TERM...MADE ONLY MINOR
CHANGES TO THE PREV FCST. OVERALL...TRENDED TEMPS TWD A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE AS MDLS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THRU THE PERIOD. DID TREND
TWD THE COOLER GUIDANCE FOR SAT AS BELIEVE THE GFS IS TOO FAST WITH
THE RETREATING SFC RIDGE AND TRENDED TWD AOA WARMEST GUIDANCE FOR
TEMPS ON SUN AS AREA SHUD BE WITHIN AREA OF STRONG WAA.

TILLY

.AVIATION...
/610 AM CST MON JAN 16 2012/

LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR THREAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID MORNING AS
DATA IS STILL INDICATING SW WIND AROUND 50 KTS BETWEEN 1500-2000
FT. OTHERWISE...OVERNIGHT SFC DATA CERTAINLY INDICATES LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
IS MAKING STRONG NWD PUSH BUT THE STRATUS THAT WAS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP WITH THIS MOISTURE RETURN ISNT BEING NEARLY SO AGGRESSIVE
WITH ITS NWD SURGE. ALTHOUGH HIGHER CLOUDS ARE NOW MASKING EXTENT
AND LOCATION OF THE STRATUS IN THE LOW CLOUD ENHANCEMENT...EARLIER
ANIMATION AS WELL AS NEPHANALYSIS INDICATE THAT NWD ADVANCEMENT
HAS SLOWED/STALLED OVER AR OZARKS...ALTHOUGH HIGHER LEVEL SC HAS
WORKED ITS WAY UP THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO SE MO AND S IL.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM ALL DATA SETS ARE ALL STRONGLY SUGGESTING
STRATUS SO PRIMARY QUESTION IS WHEN...AND FOR THIS TAF SET HAVE
USED LATEST RUC DATA TO DETERMINE ARRIVAL OF THE MVFR CIGS.
CERTAINLY LOOKS LIKE WARM FRONT WILL BE SETTING UP OVER N SECTIONS
OF THE FA AS LOW WORKS ENE FROM CNTRL KS INTO NW MO...AND WITH THE
VERY MOIST LOW LEVEL AMS ADVECTING INTO THE BOUNDARY IFR CIGS ARE
CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY AT UIN. WITH ONLY SPOTTY PRECIP EXPECTED
TODAY...HAVE HELD OFF MENTION IN TAFS UNTIL TONIGHT WHEN COVERAGE
SHOULD BE MUCH GREATER.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL...ALTHOUGH NO ACARS SOUNDINGS ARE AVAILABLE
ATTM...LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS FOR STL STILL INDICATING 50KTS IN THE
1500-2000 FT LEVEL SO HAVE CONTINUED LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR THROUGH 15Z.
ALSO BASED ON RUC SOUNDINGS IT WOULD APPEAR THAT MVFR ST/SC SHOULD
ARRIVE IN THE AREA AROUND MIDDAY AND PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

TRUETT

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

WFO LSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS NORTH PLATTE NE

538 AM CST MON JAN 16 2012

.UPDATE...

.AVIATION...
THE AREA OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS NERN WY/SRN MT IS EXPECTED TO
TRANSLATE SLOWLY SOUTH AND EAST TODAY INTO NWRN NEB LATE THIS
MORNING OR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE RUC AND CURRENT SFC OBS
ALSO SUGGEST MVFR CIGS WILL FORM DIRECTLY OVER NRN PORTIONS OF
THE FCST AREA AND THEN SPREAD SOUTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON.

SNOW WITH IFR CIGS/VSBY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN SIMILAR FASHION
AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER SCNTL MT MOVES THROUGH THE FCST
AREA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. THUS A TRANSITION FROM VFR TO MVFR
TO IFR IS EXPECTED WITH IFR COVERAGE HIGHEST ACROSS NRN NEB AS THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH. MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP FROM
WEST TO EAST AS THE DISTURBANCE DEPARTS FROM ROUGHLY 06Z ONWARD TONIGHT.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 AM CST MON JAN 16 2012/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH THIS PERIOD DEAL WITH SNOW CHANCES
TODAY AND TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

AT 08Z...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
INLAND FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH SOME WEAK RIDGING INTO THE
PLAINS AND A RATHER ROBUST SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS WESTERN
ONTARIO. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE ONTARIO
SHORTWAVE HAD PUSHED ACROSS THE NEBRASKA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS ALLOWING FOR HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
WINDS WERE BREEZY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND CLOUDS INCREASED SO
TEMPERATURES HAVEN/T EXHIBITED MUCH OF A DROP YET. DO HAVE TO LOOK
FURTHER UPSTREAM INTO SOUTH DAKOTA/NORTH DAKOTA AND MONTANA TO SEE
A DROP IN TEMPERATURES AS THOSE LOCATIONS ARE NOW OBSERVING SINGLE
DIGITS. IN THE LOCAL AREA...TEMPERATURES AT 08Z...REMAINED IN THE
MID 20S TO LOW 30S.

THE COLD AIR OVER MONTANA AND THE DAKOTAS WILL SLOWLY COME SOUTH
INTO WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE
OPERATIONAL ECMWF SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS TEMPERATURE
PROFILE KEEPING COLD AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE 16.00Z KLBF SOUNDING SHOWED THE 850MB TEMPERATURE AT
14C...WHICH ACCORDING TO THE ECMWF WILL DROP BELOW 0C /-2C TO -3C/
BY 12Z THIS MORNING...THEN TO -13C BY 12Z TUESDAY.

AS THE COLDER AIR IS IN PLACE...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL CROSS THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS TODAY. ALTHOUGH
MOISTURE ISN/T TERRIBLY ABUNDANT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...THE NAM
DOES SHOW PRECIPITABLE WATER OF AROUND 100 TO 120 PERCENT OF
NORMAL OVER THE FORECAST AREA AS THE PRIMARY LIFT FROM THE
SHORTWAVE PASSES BY. ASIDE FROM THE LARGE SCALE LIFT THERE IS A
BIT OF FRONTOGENESIS SHOWING UP /MAINLY IN THE 17.00Z TO 17.06Z
TIME FRAME/ SO IT DOES APPEAR THAT THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT LIFT
TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION AND HAVE ADJUSTED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACCORDINGLY. TIMING HAS BEEN SLOWED A BIT...AS
SOUNDINGS AND CROSS SECTIONS FROM ALL MODELS SHOWING SATURATION
WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL AFTERNOON AND PERHAPS EVENING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. DID KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SNOW IN DURING THE MORNING HOURS OVER NORTHERN SHERIDAN
COUNTY...BUT A DRY FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THROUGH
NOON TODAY. ALSO...BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM AT KVTN
SHOW A DEEP...SATURATED...AND NEARLY ISOTHERMAL LAYER IN THE
DENDRITIC LAYER FROM JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE TO AROUND 700MB.
ALTHOUGH ACTUAL QPF VALUES SHOULD NOT BE SIGNIFICANT....0.10 TO
0.20 INCHES AT THE MOST...THE RATIOS SHOULD BE PRETTY HIGH SO USED
A 17:1 RATIO TO DEVELOP THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. CAME UP WITH 1 TO 3
INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

BEHIND THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH...SHOULD GET SUBSIDENCE INTO THE AREA
ALLOWING FOR SKIES TO CLEAR TONIGHT. THE FAR NORTHWEST AND WESTERN
AREAS MAY EVEN SEE THE CLOUDS GONE BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. IF
THIS IS THE CASE...LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY MORNING OVER THE
PANHANDLE WILL BE QUITE CHILLY. WITH THE ANTICIPATED NEW SNOW-
COVER AND A COLD AIRMASS OVERHEAD...SOME LOCATIONS MAY STAY BELOW
ZERO /F/ OVERNIGHT.

WARM AIR ADVECTION AND RIDGING WILL BE BUILDING ALOFT ON
TUESDAY..BUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD SLOW TO MOVE OUT...MAY
NOT GET MUCH RETURN FLOW. JUST FOR A REFERENCE...850MB
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE COLDER AT 18.00Z WITH VALUES FROM -10C
TO -4C. ALTHOUGH DON/T EXPECT MUCH FOR CLOUD COVER...WITH THE
EXPECTED NEW SNOW ON THE GROUND...DON/T THINK TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM UP TOO MUCH. THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE HIGHS REMAIN
BELOW FREEZING.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NEBRASKA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THIS SHOULD BE A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH VERY LITTLE MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH IT. BUT THIS FRONT WILL BRING DOWN MORE COLDER
AIR. THE ABNORMALLY COLD AIR /-18C TO -25C/ LOOKS TO STAY OVER THE
DAKOTAS BUT WILL STILL SEE A GOOD GRADIENT IN TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. LOOKING FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY RANGING FROM AROUND
20 IN THE NORTHEAST TO AROUND 50 IN THE SOUTHWEST.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THERE IS NOT GREAT AGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. ON THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE PLAINS
FROM THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL PUSH THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT FURTHER TO THE SOUTH. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
LOOKS TO CONVERGE ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...SO DO EXPECT
QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER THURSDAY. MODEL SOLUTIONS KEEP THE
LOCAL AREA DRY...WITH ANY PRECIPITATION ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
STAYING INTO SOUTH DAKOTA. AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ON THE LEE SIDE OF
THE ROCKIES THERE DOES LOOK TO BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT FOR
PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP /AGAIN...MAINLY OVER SOUTH DAKOTA/. DID
KEEP IN THE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE FAR
NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THAT APPEARS TO BE THE
MOST LIKELY AREA TO RECEIVE PRECIPITATION...BUT DON/T HAVE MUCH
CONFIDENCE IN THAT. THE MODELS DIVERGE FURTHER INTO THE SECOND
PART OF NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT. THE
ECMWF DOES INDICATE SOME PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONT ON SUNDAY SO
DO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW THROUGH THAT TIME PERIOD ALTHOUGH
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THAT OUTCOME.

IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD...RIDGING ALOFT
BUILDS IN FOR THE WEEKEND SO THERE WILL BE A WARMING TREND BEYOND
THURSDAY. WILL STILL SEE A GOOD GRADIENT FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BUT SHOULD GET MORE UNIFORM
WARMING BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. SATURDAY CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE BUNCH...WITH STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT SET TO PASS BY ON SUNDAY. THE ECMWF DOES BRING
850MB TEMPERATURES BACK UP TO 14C FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON SO AGAIN
COULD BE PUSHING INTO THE 60S.

HYDROLOGY...

COLD TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL CONTINUE THE ICE
JAMMING PROBLEM ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTH PLATTE RIVER. WILL NOT
EXPECT TO SEE IMPROVEMENT IN THIS SITUATION UNTIL POSSIBLY LATER
IN THE WEEK. THEREFORE EXPECT THE FLOODING TO CONTINUE IN THE AREA
FROM LEWELLEN TO LAKE MCCONAUGHY.

AVIATION...

THE AREA OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS NERN WY/SRN MT IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE
SLOWLY SOUTH AND EAST TODAY INTO NWRN NEB LATE THIS MORNING OR EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON...THEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST AREA
TONIGHT.

SNOW WITH IFR CIGS/VSBY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN SIMILAR FASHION AS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER SCNTL MT MOVES THROUGH THE FCST AREA
TODAY AND TONIGHT. THUS A TRANSITION FROM VFR TO MVFR TO IFR IS
EXPECTED WITH IFR COVERAGE HIGHEST ACROSS NRN NEB. MVFR/VFR
CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE DISTURBANCE
DEPARTS AFTER 06Z TONIGHT.

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM/EXTENDED...BROOKS
AVIATION...CDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BUFFALO NY

427 PM EST MON JAN 16 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
INTERMITTENT RAIN AND SOME FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE WELL INLAND WILL
MOVE INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK TONIGHT AHEAD OF A SYSTEM
THAT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MIDWEST OVERNIGHT. THIS LOW WILL DEEPEN
AS IT MOVES OVER THE OHIO ON TUESDAY AND DOWN THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER
VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT. AS THE LOW PASSES TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION
LATE TUESDAY...IT WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS NEW YORK...WITH LAKE
EFFECT SNOW TAKING SHAPE BEHIND THE FRONT SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A BRIEF BREAK IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
NIGHT BEFORE A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES BY ON THURSDAY BRINGING ANOTHER
ROUND OF GENERAL SNOWFALL AS WELL AS LAKE LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO THE
REGION.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FEATURES A WEAK RIDGE IN THE EASTERN US AND
DEVELOPING TROUGH IN THE WEST. A WEAK SHORTWAVE CAN BE FOUND OVER
IL/IN QUICKLY RIDING UP THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE. THE AMPLITUDE
OF THESE FEATURES IS RELATIVELY SMALL AND EXPECT THEM TO MOVE FAIRLY
QUICKLY EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AT THE SURFACE IS A
DEVELOPING MIDWEST LOW IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AT
THE BASE THE WESTERN US TROUGH.

CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ABUNDANT LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE
MOVING TOWARD THE REGION...BUT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS LITTLE
PRECIPITATION EXCEPT MAINLY OVER WESTERN PA AND THE LOWER OH VALLEY
WHERE CLOUD TOPS ARE FINALLY SHOWING SIGNS OF COOLING IN RESPONSE TO
THE IL/IN SHORTWAVE. THE LATEST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR AND RUC
AGREE WITH UPSTREAM DATA...THERE IS LITTLE REASON TO EXPECT MUCH
MORE THAN ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER TONIGHT WITH EVENTUALLY ENOUGH
MOISTURE TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT. THUS WE
HAVE A LOW QPF BUT HIGH POP FORECAST.

FREEZING RAIN INLAND...
OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER...DUE TO A DRY INITIAL LOW LEVEL AIRMASS
EARLY THIS EVENING...EXPECT TEMPERATURES IN THE INLAND PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN TIER TO DROP BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT. WITH EVENTUAL
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED...ALBEIT LIGHT AMOUNTS...A MIX OF RAIN OR
FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE...MAYBE INSTEAD AS DRIZZLE OR FREEZING
DRIZZLE. WITH MINIMAL LIFT...SLEET IS PROBABLY NOT AN ISSUE...AND
SNOW SHOULD BE HARD TO COME BY WITH LITTLE LIFT...BARELY ENOUGH TO
GET ANY MOISTURE INTO THE COOLER SNOW-MAKING LAYER BELOW -10 OR SO.
WILL LET THE ADVISORY RIDE...BUT WILL ADJUST THE TIME A BIT.

IN THE WESTERN FINGER LAKES...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER
THAN IN THE NORMALLY COOLER SOUTHERN TIER AREAS. FROM A
COORDINATION STANDPOINT WITH BGM AND THE MARGINAL NATURE OF THE
EVENT...WILL HOLD OFF ON EXPANDING THE CURRENT ADVISORY AREA AND
DESCRIBE ANY FREEZING RAIN AS A LOWER POSSIBILITY WHEN COMPARED TO
THE INLAND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER.

EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...THIS AREA HAS THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD FOR
FREEZING PRECIPITATION AS TEMPERATURES SHOULD EASILY DROP BELOW OR
REMAIN BELOW FREEZING LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING.
WHAT PRECIPITATION DOES BREAK OUT WILL LIKELY START OUT AS
SNOW...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN. AGAIN...QPF
WILL BE LOW...BUT THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST SOME MIXED
PRECIPITATION. LIKE THE FINGER LAKES REGION...WILL ADJUST THE
TIMING BUT KEEP THE AREAL EXTENT UNCHANGED...WITH FREEZING RAIN A
POSSIBILITY FROM NORTHERN CAYUGA EAST.

THE REST OF THE REGION SHOULD SEE LIGHT PRECIPITATION...WITH RAIN OR
DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH AREAS OF FOG AS THE SNOWPACK CONTINUES
TO MELT WITH TEMPERATURES RISING BACK TO 40F.

ON TUESDAY...A CONTINUATION OF DREARY WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE
MORNING WITH A LOW QPF BUT PLENTY OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE AND FOG
WITH CONTINUED MELTING SNOW. ANY FREEZING PRECIPITATION EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO SHOULD TRANSITION OVER TO PLAIN RAIN OR DRIZZLE BY MID
MORNING.

THE POSSIBILITY FOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL RAIN WILL INCREASE
IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE DEEPENING OH LOW APPROACHES WITH THE REGION
UNDER THE MAIN BAROCLINIC LEAF AND UNDER THE WARM AIR CONVEYOR
BELT. THE COLD FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER SUNSET.

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH A MATURE SURFACE LOW CENTERED JUST NORTH OF
LAKE ONTARIO. THE WARM FRONTAL PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIFTING OUT OF
THE NORTH COUNTRY WHILE THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL BE ON THE
DOORSTEP OF WESTERN NEW YORK...DRAPED ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF
LAKE ERIE. THE LOW WILL QUICKLY LIFT INTO THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY
TUESDAY NIGHT WHILE THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION. STRONG
COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG WITH A TIGHT ISALLOBARIC
GRADIENT BEHIND THE LOW WILL LEAD TO GALES ACROSS THE LAKES WITH
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.

AS THE WINDS VEER TO THE WEST AND A ARCTIC AIR SPILLS ACROSS THE
REGION...EXPECT LAKE EFFECT SNOWS TO DEVELOP ACROSS LAKES ERIE AND
ONTARIO. WINDS WILL QUICKLY VEER FROM SOUTHWEST TO WEST MAKING THE
WINDOW FOR SNOWFALL IN THE BUFFALO METRO AREA VERY LIMITED. THE BULK
OF SNOWFALL OFF OF LAKE ERIE IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR FROM SOUTHERN ERIE
COUNTY SOUTH ACROSS THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE AND FROM THE TUG HILL
PLATEAU SOUTH TO WAYNE COUNTY OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO...WITH ADVISORY
LEVEL AMOUNTS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE
SNOWBELTS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES. GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS...WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE CONSIDERED TO COVER THE
POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING SNOW. FOR NOW WILL HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO AS
THIS IS STILL OUT IN THE THIRD TO FORTH PERIODS.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...EXPECT THE BRIEF RESPITE FROM WINTER TO BE
CUT SHORT IN DRAMATIC FASHION WITH TEMPS DROPPING BACK INTO THE 20S
WITH TEENS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH
COUNTRY. THE COLD ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING INTO WEDNESDAY AS
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO DROP THROUGH THE DAY TO THE TEENS BY
THE AFTERNOON...WITH SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY CLOSER
TO THE COLDEST PORTION OF THE AIRMASS.

LAKE EFFECT SNOWS SHOULD TAPER OFF BY LATER IN THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE REGION. WE COULD SEE ANOTHER COLD
NIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD WITH
TEMPERATURES DIPPING BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. LINGERING
CLOUD COVER ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA MAY KEEP TEMPS FROM CRASHING QUITE AS FAR WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
RUNNING FROM 5 TO 15 ABOVE.

A CLIPPER LOW WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT SWEEPING ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LAKES AND
BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF LAKE EFFECT SNOWS TO WESTERN NEW YORK
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO NEAR
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS THURSDAY WILL DROP OFF AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH LOWS AGAIN RUNNING AROUND 5
TO 15 ABOVE ZERO.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM STARTS WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOWS TAPERING OFF AS THE
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN CONTINUES WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION. THE GENERAL PATTERN WILL BE FOR HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW
ENGLAND/QUEBEC TO BE UNDERCUT BY A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DRIVEN
BY A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS
FRIDAY NIGHT. HOW FAR NORTH THE ASSOCIATED BAROCLINIC ZONE AND
ASSOCIATED PRECIP GETS IS A MATTER OF DEBATE AMONGST THE MODELS WITH
THE GFS KEEPING PRECIP FARTHER SOUTH THAN EITHER THE ECMWF OR GEM.
FOR NOW WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MODEL
CONSENSUS/ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A WARM-UP BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND AS
BROAD SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION.

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE FAIRLY RAPIDLY FROM WEST TO EAST AS
A ABUNDANT LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. THIS
WILL BRING A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN OR FREEZING PRECIPITATION IN
SHELTERED VALLEYS AS WELL AS AREAS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO /KJHW AND
KART/ WITH PLAIN BUT INTERMITTENT RAIN OR DRIZZLE TO MOST OF WESTERN
NY /KIAG-KBUF-KROC/. WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT.

A STRONG AND PROLONGED 45 TO 50 KNOT LLJ BETWEEN 1K AND 2K FEET
TODAY WILL CONTINUE WITH LLWS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...MVFR/VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH SNOW LIKELY.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR...CHC SNOW SHOWERS SE OF BOTH LAKES.
SATURDAY...MVFR/VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH A TIGHT GRADIENT
OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. A DEEPENING LOW WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE LAKES TUESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH
WILL LIKELY INCREASE WIND SPEEDS INTO THE GALE CATEGORY LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT OR INTO WEDNESDAY.

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR NYZ006>008.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ007-008.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ005-006.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR NYZ019-020-085.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ020-021.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LEZ020.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
FOR LEZ040-041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
LOZ030.
GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR LOZ042>045-062>065.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LOZ042>044.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LOZ045.

SYNOPSIS...ZAFF
NEAR TERM...ZAFF
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...ZAFF
MARINE...ZAFF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BUFFALO NY

420 PM EST MON JAN 16 2012

THE REST OF THE REGION SHOULD SEE LIGHT PRECIPITATION...WITH RAIN OR
DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH AREAS OF FOG AS THE SNOWPACK CONTINUES
TO MELT WITH TEMPERATURES RISING BACK TO 40F.

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ANOTHER DEEP STORM SYSTEM WILL PLOW ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AT
THE START OF THIS PERIOD AND THIS WILL SLAM THE BRAKES ON OUR WARM
UP AS TEMPERATURES WILL PLUNGE BACK TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS. THE
ABRUPT TRANSITION BACK TO WINTER WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER
ROUND OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS ALONG WITH RENEWED LAKE SNOWS.

THE MAKINGS OF THE UPCOMING STORM SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND ON WV IMAGERY
EARLY THIS MORNING AS AN IMPRESSIVELY LARGE SHORTWAVE CAN BE SEEN
DIVING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS FEATURE WILL CRUISE OVER
THE ROCKIES DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS BEFORE IT EMERGES OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AT THE START OF THIS SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE WILL ENERGIZE A DEVELOPING SFC CYCLONE OVER THE MID
WEST...HELPING IT TO DEEPEN SOME 10MB IN 12 HOURS FROM ARND 1000MB
TUESDAY MORNING TO 990MB BY TUESDAY EVENING.

MODERATELY STRONG WARM ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF THIS STRENGTHENING
SFC LOW ON TUESDAY WILL COMBINE WITH THE DYNAMICS FROM A COUPLED H25
JET TO GENERATE DEEP LIFT ACROSS OUR REGION. WHILE THERE MAY BE SOME
LEFTOVER LIGHT MIXED PCPN EAST OF LK ONTARIO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...
WARM ADVECTION AT ALL LEVELS WILL SUPPORT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RAIN.
QPF AMOUNTS WILL NOT BE IMPRESSIVE THOUGH...AS THE BEST OVERRUNNING
SURFACE (TIGHTEST BAROLCLINIC ZONE) WILL BE TO OUR NORTH. BASIN
AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE UNDER A QUARTER INCH.

THE TRACK OF THE STRENGTHENING SFC LOW WILL BE TO THE WEST AND NORTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND WHILE THIS WILL INITIALLY TRANSLATE INTO
A `WARM` EVENT FOR THE REGION...IT ALSO MEANS THAT WE WILL
EXPERIENCE ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS. THE LOW WILL MOVE
FROM ABOUT DTW TO YYZ DURING THE COURSE OF TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE
MAKING ITS WAY TO THE KINGSTON AREA TUESDAY EVENING. THIS IS THE
CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED COURSE TO PRODUCE STRONG WINDS FROM LAKE
ERIE TO THE BUF-ROC-ART CORRIDOR...PARTLY DUE TO THE FUNNELING OF
THE WINDS UP THE LENGTH OF LAKE ERIE. THIS WILL ALSO PRODUCE A 3 TO
5 FOOT SEICHE ON LAKE ERIE TUESDAY EVENING WHEN IT WILL BE QUITE
STORMY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THESE LEVELS WOULD NOT REQUIRE ANY
`FLAGS`.

BY TUESDAY EVENING...THE POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM WILL BE CENTERED JUST
NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND THE STAGE WILL BE SET FOR STRONG WINDS TO
BUFFET THE REGION. STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND THE SUGGESTION OF A
STRATOSPHERIC INTRUSION IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING STORM WILL
MAXIMIZE THE 40KT LOW LEVEL WINDS...WITH A TIGHT SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND 5MB/HR ISALLOBARIC PRESSURE RISES SUPPORTING SFC WIND
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED...
PARTICULARLY ALONG THE LAKE ERIE SHORE/IAG FRONTIER TO ROC.

ALONG WITH THE STRONG WINDS...THE PASSAGE OF AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL USHER IN THE NEXT BLAST OF WINTRY TEMPERATURES AS MERCURY
READINGS WILL TUMBLE OUT OF THE 40S TUESDAY EVENING INTO THE TEENS
AND 20S OVERNIGHT. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME ICY SURFACES AS OUR PCPN
WILL QUICKLY CHANGE FROM RAIN TO SNOW...AND THEN TO LAKE DRIVEN
SNOW. ALL AREAS SHOULD PICK UP AT LEAST AN INCH OR TWO OF WIND
DRIVEN SYNOPTIC SNOW EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE SNOW BECOMING
CONCENTRATED SOUTHEAST OF BOTH LAKES AFTER MIDNIGHT AS H85 TEMPS OF
-12 TO -16C WILL ONCE AGAIN START UP THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW MACHINE.
AS STATED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...WILL INCLUDE THE MENTION OF
BLOWING SNOW AS WELL. AS A RESULT OF THIS HIGH PROBABILITY
SCENARIO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE
REGION WITH POSSIBLE LAKE EFFECT HEADLINES FOR THE SNOWBELTS
SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE STILL INTENSIFYING STORM SYSTEM WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY WHILE A FAST MOVING BUT
NARROW RIDGE WILL TRAVERSE THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WHILE THIS WILL
ENCOURAGE LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK...H85 TEMPS
OF -17C AND FAVORABLY HIGH A CAP OF ABOUT 10K FT WILL KEEP PROMOTE
MORE LAKE SNOW SOUTHEAST OF BOTH LAKES. IN FACT...WILL BE RAISING
OUR POPS FOR THESE AREAS BY AT LEAST 10 POINTS. OTHERWISE...WE CAN
EXPECT A PARTLY SUNNY AND COLD DAY WITH DIMINISHING WINDS.

AS THE RIDGE MOVES ACROSS OUR REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE ONSET OF
WARM ADVECTION WILL LOWER AN INCREASINGLY STRONGER CAP...WHICH IN
TURN WILL WEAKEN THE LAKE SNOWS. THIS WEAKENING ACTIVITY OFF BOTH
LAKES WILL LIFT NORTH DURING THE COURSE OF THE NIGHT...POTENTIALLY
BRINGING A COATING TO AN INCH OR SO OF FLUFF TO THE BUF/ART METRO
AREAS.

ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES ON THURSDAY. FOR WHAT ITS WORTH...WILL ACCEPT THE TRACK
OFFERED UP BY THE ECMWF AND SREF AS THE GFS AGAIN LOOKS LIKE THE
OUTLIER IN ITS MORE SOUTHERN TRACK. THE WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE WILL PRODUCE PLENTY OF CLOUDS ACROSS OUR REGION WITH SOME
SNOW SHOWERS BECOMING LIKELY DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY.

AS THIS NEXT STORM SYSTEM RACES ACROSS EASTERN ONTARIO TO QUEBEC
THURSDAY NIGHT...ITS AFFILIATED COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA TO USHER IN THE NEXT ROUND OF VERY COLD AIR. THIS WILL
PRODUCE MORE SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE REGION WITH SHORT LIVED LAKE SNOWS
ANTICIPATED ONCE AGAIN FOR THE SNOWBELTS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WINTER WILL GIVE WAY TO DRAMATICALLY MILDER CONDITIONS DURING THIS
PERIOD...AND WITHOUT MUCH OF A FIGHT. A RELATIVELY LOW AMPLITUDE
PATTERN...DOMINATED UP TO THIS POINT BY THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE
JET...WILL SURRENDER TO A WARM PACIFIC FLOW THAT WILL FLOOD THE
ENTIRE COUNTRY. THIS WILL LEAD TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
SOME DETAILS...

FOR FRIDAY HIGH PRESSURE FROM CANADA POKES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES WITH A FRESH ARCTIC AIRMASS CROSSING THE LAKE
WATERS. THE 12Z GFS IS COLDER THAN THE 12Z ECMWF WITH TEMPERATURES
AT 850 HPA CLOSE TO -15 TO -20C ACROSS THE REGION...WHILE THE ECMWF
IS SEVERAL DEGREES COLDER. WILL LOWER TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT BY SEVERAL DEGREES FROM
CONTINUITY...WHILE MAINTAINING THE LAKE SNOW CHCS DOWNWIND OF THE
LAKES ON ANOTHER NORTHWEST FLOW. TEMPERATURES FOR LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT
ARE STILL UNCERTAIN ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WHERE
OVERNIGHT LOWS MAY BE MUCH LOWER THAN CURRENT FORECAST.

THE WEEKEND BEGINS WITH SNOW/RAIN CHCS AS ANOTHER SFC LOW FORMS ON
THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES IN SOUTHERN CANADA AND TRACKS EASTWARD ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PROVINCES. WITH THIS LOW TRACKING FURTHER TO
THE NORTH THAN THE THURSDAY LOW...INCREASING CHCS FOR RAIN TO MIX IN
WITH THIS SYSTEM....ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY AS SFC TEMPERATURES MAY
RISE INTO THE 40S...TO NEAR 50 AS A STRONG...MILD SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS. TEMPERATURES OF THIS MAGNITUDE WILL SUPPORT JUST PLAIN
RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY...THOUGH WILL KEEP POPS LOW
CHC FOR THIS FAR OUT WITH MODEL UNCERTAINTY.

LOOKING FURTHER OUT TO THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF THE NEW WORK WEEK...
THERE IS STRONG CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GEFS THAT THE WARM
PACIFIC FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS
PATTERN WILL PROMOTE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE
40S...WITH SOME 50S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR THE GENESEE VALLEY.
WHILE A FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL LIKELY KNOCK SOME STEAM OUT OF THIS
WARM UP FOR MID WEEK...THE OVERALL PATTERN SHOULD REMAIN VERY
PACIFIC IN NATURE FOR THE REST OF NEXT WEEK. THIS TREND IS SUPPORTED
BY THE 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY TEMP OUTLOOKS SUPPLIED BY THE CLIMATE
PREDICTION CENTER.

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE FAIRLY RAPIDLY FROM WEST TO EAST AS
A ABUNDANT LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. THIS
WILL BRING A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN OR FREEZING PRECIPITATION IN
SHELTERED VALLEYS AS WELL AS AREAS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO /KJHW AND
KART/ WITH PLAIN BUT INTERMITTENT RAIN OR DRIZZLE TO MOST OF WESTERN
NY /KIAG-KBUF-KROC/. WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT.

A STRONG AND PROLONGED 45 TO 50 KNOT LLJ BETWEEN 1K AND 2K FEET
TODAY WILL CONTINUE WITH LLWS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY.

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ007-008.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ005-006.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ020-021.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LEZ020.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
FOR LEZ040-041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
LOZ030.
GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR LOZ042>045-062>065.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LOZ042>044.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LOZ045.

SYNOPSIS...ZAFF
NEAR TERM...ZAFF
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH/THOMAS
AVIATION...ZAFF
MARINE...ZAFF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC

934 PM EST TUE JAN 17 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING THEN CROSS
THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. A WEAK FRONT
WILL DROP INTO THE AREA FRIDAY THEN LINGER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE FRONT DISSIPATES AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
RIDGES INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 935 PM TUESDAY...FORECAST TIMING OF PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO
BE ON TRACK. SHOWERS ARE NOW JUST WEST OF RALEIGH EXTENDING WEST
BACK TO NEAR CHARLOTTE. AXIS OF HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER AND
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST AS COLD FRONT HAS
NOW ENTERED THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN NC. THINK PRECIPITATION
REACHES OUR CWA BETWEEN 05Z AND 06Z WITH THE AXIS OF HIGHEST QPF
AND LIFT INDICATED BY THE RUC13 AROUND 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY NOT CHANGE MUCH OVERNIGHT. ONLY MINOR
CHANGES NEEDED TO CURRENT FORECAST.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
PCPN LINGERS THRU SUNRISE ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN
AREAS THEN DEEPER DRYING SLOWLY WORKS TO THE COAST IN THE
FORENOON. TEMPS MAY ONLY SHOW A SLIGHT DIURNAL RISE AS CAA
OVERTAKES THE AREA EARLY WITH HIGHS ONLY INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S
FOR MOST WITH A BRISK NORTH WIND. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OUT
WITH MUCH OF THE AREA RECEIVING AMPLE SUNSHINE DURING THE AFTN.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM TUE...RELIED ON THE 00Z ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED
FORECAST AGAIN TODAY...AS IT MATCHED UP VERY WELL WITH HPC`S
EXTENDED GRAPHICS COMPARED WITH THE 12Z GFS WHICH DOES NOT. NARROW
RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD THURSDAY
WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST DURING THE DAY. A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL
DROP INTO THE STATE ON FRIDAY AND LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND. BUMPED
UP RAIN CHANCE TO 50 PERCENT ON SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE
FRONT PASSES THROUGH...THEN A LINGERING 30 PERCENT SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE FRONT WILL STILL BE IN THE AREA ON SUNDAY. IT APPEARS LITTLE
IF ANYTHING TO TRIGGER SHOWERS KEPT ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE GOING
ALONG SOUTHERN AREAS AND OUTER BANKS IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF
THE BOUNDARY. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE BY MONDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGING INTO THE REGION. A WEAK
FRONT WILL PASS TO THE NORTH ON TUESDAY BUT NO PRECIP EXPECTED.

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 635 PM TUESDAY...DRYING IS OCCURRING IN THE LOW-LEVELS
FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF FIRST BAND OF RAINFALL. LOOKS LIKE THE
EVENING HOURS SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. NUMERICAL MOS AND LAMP GUIDANCE INDICATES CEILINGS TO
FALL TO MVFR/IFR STATUS AFTER 06Z AS THE MAIN AREA OF
PRECIPITATION ARRIVES AND LINGER UNTIL MID TO LATE MORNING ON
WEDNESDAY. CEILINGS IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER ABOUT 16 OR 17Z WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /WED NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 230 PM TUE...VFR THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD BEHIND THE FRONT ON THURSDAY WILL SHIFT
OFF THE COAST WITH A SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW RETURNING. A BACKDOOR
FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH ON SATURDAY AND LINGER INTO
SUNDAY...AFTER WHICH IT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE. SCATTERED SHOWERS
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE AREA ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
ACCOMPANYING LOWER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. ISOLATED SHOWERS
EXPECTED SUNDAY BUT SHOULD STAY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE 4 AREA
TERMINALS.

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 935 PM TUESDAY...GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY INCREASE...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SEAS ARE CURRENTLY 3 TO 5 FEET AND WILL
BUILD OVERNIGHT AS WELL. POST-FRONTAL N/NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT
MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS INTO WED AFTN UNTIL THE CAA
WANES. SEAS WILL PEAK AT 7 TO 9 FEET OVER THE OUTER WATERS TONIGHT
THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AS WINDS SHIFT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WED.

LONG TERM /WED NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 230 PM TUE...GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD THURSDAY
WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST WITH THE FLOW RETURNING TO SOUTHERLY.
WINDS WILL PICK UP THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS THE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM.
CONDITIONS WILL STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT WITH WINDS CAPPED AT 15-20
KNOTS AND SEAS 3-5 FEET. A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE
AREA FRIDAY AND LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG
THE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY. MINIMAL
SMALL CRAFT SEAS EXPECTED ONLY OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN WATERS ON
SATURDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL NOT BE VERY TIGHT. IN FACT
WINDS ON BOTH SATURDAY & SUNDAY EXPECTED TO ONLY BE 10-15 KNOTS.

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ130-135-
156-158.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ150-152-
154.

SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...CTC/HSA
MARINE...CTC/BTC/HSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS GRAND FORKS ND

1040 AM CST MON JAN 16 2012

.DISCUSSION...
THE INITIAL SURGE OF COLD ADVECTION IS NOW THROUGH THE FCST AREA.
MODEL FORECASTS INDICATE THE 850 MB COLD ADVECTION LESSENS THIS
AFTN-EVE THEN RETURNS OVERNIGHT AS SHORT WAVE PASSES BY TO OUR
SOUTH. THUS FEEL TEMPS LIKELY NOT FALL MUCH FURTHER TODAY AND MAY
RISE 1-2 DEGREES IN SOME AREAS. CLOUD COVER IS QUITE PATCHY WITH
AREAS OF STRATOCU...BUT THESE ARE QUITE THIN. HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS
MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST HALF OF NORTH DAKOTA INTO MN IN
ADVANCE OF SHORT WAVE IS QUITE THIN IN SPOTS TOO. THUS AREA SEEING
SOME SUN. DUE THIS TAPPERED BACK CLOUD COVER A BIT ESP IN
NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA.

PER ABR/BIS COORD...CUT BACK A BIT ON POPS IN FAR SE ND AND
DELAYED EASTWARD ADVANCE JUST A TAD. INCOMING RUC IS A BIT SLOWER
IN HAVING ANY PRECIP NOT REACHING FAR SE ND TIL NEARLY 00Z. GFS
MAINTAINS MOSTLY SOUTH OF US...WHICH MAKES SENCE DUE TO DRY
NORTHERLY WINDS MOVING IN. ECHOES WILL NEED TO FALL FROM MID
LEVELS SO EXPECT ONLY MINIMAL AMTS REACHING THE GROUND.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 AM CST MON JAN 16 2012/

SHORT TERM...

TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL
BE THE PRIMARY FORECAST PROBLEMS FOR THE SHORT TERM.

THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT HAS MOVED MOST OF THE WAY THROUGH THE
CWA...AND ALTHOUGH A COUPLE OF STATIONS ARE HANGING ONTO TEMPS IN
THE 20S...THE COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP
SHORTLY. MOST GUIDANCE AND GOING FORECAST HAVE TEMPERATURES
FALLING THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND THIS CONTINUES TO SEEM
REASONABLE. MADE A FEW MINOR TWEAKS FOR CURRENT TEMPS...BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO HAVE HIGHS SLOWLY FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA.

WV LOOP HAS A DECENT SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER OR/ID THAT WILL MOVE
INTO WY TODAY. SFC LOW PRESSURE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WILL BE
LOCATED WELL TO OUR SOUTH...BUT MODELS ARE BREAKING OUT A FAIR
AMOUNT OF PRECIP ALONG THE 700MB BAROCLINIC ZONE ON THE NORTHWEST
SIDE OF THE LOW AND BRING SOME OF IT INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA.
DRY ARCTIC AIR COMING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL KEEP PRECIP FROM
MAKING IT TOO FAR INTO THE CWA...BUT OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES COULD
GET BRUSHED WITH UP TO A HALF AN INCH OF SNOW THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. BUMPED UP POPS TO AROUND 40 PERCENT IN THE FAR SOUTH.

WINDS WILL DECREASE MONDAY NIGHT AS THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH
MOVES BY JUST TO OUR WEST. TEMPS SHOULD FALL TO WELL BELOW ZERO
WITH SOME VALUES AROUND 10 BELOW IN THE NORTH. TUESDAY SHOULD
CONTINUE TO BE QUIET BUT COLD AS THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
MOVES TO THE EAST.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING FROM CANADA INTO ND TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW. THE 00Z
GFS HAS BEEN MUCH FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE SYSTEM THAN THE 00Z
NAM...WHICH HAD THE SFC LOW OVER ND AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG
THE CANADIAN BORDER. THE ECMWF AND GEM WERE TRENDING TO A MORE
NORTHERLY SOLUTION...BUT THE 06Z NAM HAS GONE A BIT FURTHER TO THE
SOUTH. CURRENT FORECAST HAS 30 POPS ALONG THE NORTHERN COUNTIES
TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN DROPPING INTO THE CENTRAL CWA DURING THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY. EVEN THE MORE NORTHERLY SOLUTIONS WERE BREAKING
OUT SOME PRECIP AS A COLD FRONT DROPS DOWN ON WEDNESDAY. WITH ALL
THE UNCERTAINTY...SEE LITTLE REASON TO MAKE BIG CHANGES TO WHAT WE
HAVE GOING FOR NOW.

TEMPS COULD BE TRICKY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS SOME
WARM AIR ADVECTION SETS UP BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT COMES
THROUGH. COULD SEE SOME NON-DIURNAL TEMPS...BUT A LITTLE EARLY TO
GO WITH THAT NOW AS THERE ARE A LOT OF MODEL DIFFERENCES IN TIMING
AND HOW FAR NORTH THEY BRING THE SFC LOW. DID BUMP UP HIGHS A BIT IN
THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES ON WEDNESDAY AS EVEN THE SOUTHERN
SOLUTIONS HAVE SOME WARMING IN THAT AREA BEFORE COLD AIR COMES
RUSHING DOWN. WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE VERY COLD AS THE CENTER OF
THE SFC HIGH MOVES DOWN INTO THE PLAINS. DECREASING WINDS AND
CLOUDS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO GET INTO THE 10 TO 20 BELOW RANGE.

LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...
FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE PERIOD AND TIMING DIFFERENCES BECOME APPARENT BY THE WEEKEND.
MODERATING TEMPS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AS COLD POOL GETS SHUNTED
EAST WITH NW 500MB FLOW BREAKING DOWN INTO A MORE ZONAL DIRECTION.
SNOW CHANCES REMAIN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AS MODELS CONTINUE TO
HAVE A POOR HANDLE ON BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF WEAK SHORT WAVES. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS IF ANY
SNOW FALL OCCURS.

AVIATION...

PATCHY STRATUS HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE DOWN FROM CANADA AND DROP TAF
SITES DOWN TO MVFR PERIODICALLY...ALTHOUGH THERE HAS BEEN NO
CONSISTENCY. WILL COVER WITH TEMPO GROUPS AS RESTRICTIONS TO
CEILINGS HAVE BEEN SHORT LIVED BEFORE GOING BACK TO VFR. MORE MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN AFTER 15Z OR SO...WITH CONDITIONS GOING
VFR UNDER 4000-8000 FT CEILINGS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE
NORTHWEST AT AROUND 15 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS IN THE
AFTERNOON.

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
RIDDLE/JR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORMAN OK

1148 AM CST MON JAN 16 2012

.AVIATION...
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS ALL TERMINAL SITES LATER THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. FRONT/WIND SHIFT SHOULD REMAIN ALONG AND JUST NORTH
OF KANSAS/OK BORDER UNTIL A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. CIRRUS
HAS THINNED SOME ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR
BETTER MIXING AND HIGHER GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY
OF LOW CLOUDS BEHIND FRONT IN KANSAS LATE THIS MORNING...BUT
COULD SEE SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS FORM BEHIND THE FRONT FOR A FEW
HOURS OVERNIGHT. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING FRONT AND
SHORTWAVES MAY BE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS...BUT
NOT ENOUGH COVERAGE TO MENTION IN NORTHERN TAFS AT THIS TIME.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1039 AM CST MON JAN 16 2012/

DISCUSSION...
WITH PLENTY OF CIRRUS STREAMING OVER THE REGION LOWERED HIGHS A
LITTLE BIT...FOLLOWING CLOSELY TO LATEST RUC13 OUTPUT. THE RUC
ALSO APPEARS TO HAVE BEST HANDLE ON FRONT THAT HAS ALREADY MADE
ITS WAY INTO NORTHERN PARTS OF OKLAHOMA. ALTHOUGH 60S AND 70S WILL
BE WIDESPREAD...SOME PARTS OF NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA
THAT BORDERS KANSAS WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF MID 50S AND
ACTUALLY SEE TEMPS FALL LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

WILL LEAVE THE LOW POPS FOR THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL AND
CENTRAL PARTS OF OKLAHOMA AS MAIN S/WV APPROACHES AND FRONT WILL
BE IN VICINITY.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 68 32 43 21 / 10 20 10 0
HOBART OK 70 31 44 20 / 0 10 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 71 39 49 22 / 10 10 10 0
GAGE OK 70 23 38 13 / 0 10 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 67 27 36 15 / 10 20 10 0
DURANT OK 69 42 50 26 / 10 10 10 0

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORMAN OK

1039 AM CST MON JAN 16 2012

.DISCUSSION...
WITH PLENTY OF CIRRUS STREAMING OVER THE REGION LOWERED HIGHS A
LITTLE BIT...FOLLOWING CLOSELY TO LATEST RUC13 OUTPUT. THE RUC
ALSO APPEARS TO HAVE BEST HANDLE ON FRONT THAT HAS ALREADY MADE
ITS WAY INTO NORTHERN PARTS OF OKLAHOMA. ALTHOUGH 60S AND 70S WILL
BE WIDESPREAD...SOME PARTS OF NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA
THAT BORDERS KANSAS WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF MID 50S AND
ACTUALLY SEE TEMPS FALL LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

WILL LEAVE THE LOW POPS FOR THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL AND
CENTRAL PARTS OF OKLAHOMA AS MAIN S/WV APPROACHES AND FRONT WILL
BE IN VICINITY.

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

11/06

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

628 PM EST TUE JAN 17 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN LAKE HURON THIS AFTERNOON WILL STRENGTHEN
AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND DOWN
THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. A SHARP COLD
FRONT TRAILING SOUTH FROM THIS LOW WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE
COMMONWEALTH EARLY TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A SURGE OF COLDER AIR AND
STRONG GUSTY WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATER
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. A PAIR OF UPPER AIR DISTURBANCES AND
WEAK SURFACE LOWS SHOULD BRING A FEW PERIODS OF MAINLY LIGHT SNOW TO
THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...AND AGAIN LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXTREMELY STRONG 60-70KT 925-850 SWRLY LLJ WAS LIFTING NE ACROSS WRN
PENN AHEAD OF A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY SITUATED
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIP OF LAKE HURON.

MOVED UP THE WIND ADVISORY BY 5 HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS STRONG
WIND IMPACT TO THE RIDGE TOPS OF THE LAURELS THIS AFTERNOON...AND
MAINTAINED THE PREVIOUS WIND ADVISORY FOR THE REST OF THE WESTERN
MTNS THIS EVENING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT.

FAST MOVING SHOWERS OF RAIN /ENE AT 60 KTS/ AND EVEN A FEW BREAKS IN
THE LAYERED CLOUD DECK WILL OCCUR IN THE STRONG/DEEP WSWRLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE SFC COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT EXTENDED FROM JUST EAST OF
TOLEDO OHIO...TO WILMINGTON OHIO AT 1930Z AND WAS MOVING QUICKLY TO
THE EAST AT 40KT.

LINEAR EXTRAPOLATION BRINGS THE FRONT INTO WARREN COUNTY BETWEEN
23-00Z...AND AROUND 01Z ALONG THE LENGTH OF ROUTE 219 IN WRN PENN.
THE CFRONT WITH A LIKELY BAND OF GUSTY MDT TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN
SHOWERS WILL REACH THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY AROUND 03-04Z.

ELEVATED...925-850 MB LIFTED INDICES VIA THE RUC DROP TO NEAR...OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO ACROSS FAR SCENT PENN AND LOWER SUSQ VALLEY LATE
TODAY AND THIS EVENING. THIS MARGINAL INSTABILITY COULD SUPPORT A
FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ALONG THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

VERY MILD TEMPS IN THE 40S...TO LOWER AND MID 50S IN THE SOUTH WILL
PLUMMET IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. THE MUCH COLDER TEMPS IN THE TEENS
/NW/...AND 20S SE WED MORNING WILL COMBINE WITH THE STRONG WESTERLY
WINDS TO BRING WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS /NW/ TO TEENS /SE/.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WILL AVERAGE
0.10-0.25 OF AN INCH.

RAIN SHOWERS WILL MIX WITH THEN CHANGE TO FREQUENT SHSN ACROSS THE
NW MTNS LATE THIS EVENING...WITH ACCUMULATING LES BANDS PUSHING
GRADUALLY INLAND FROM THE ERIE LAKE SHORE BY SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

THE BASE OF THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION RISES TO 7-8 KFT AGL LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY...AND A DECENT CROSS-HAIR SIGNATURE OF
UVVEL WITH THE PRIME THERMAL RIBBON FOR DENDRITIC GROWTH OCCURS
BETWEEN ABOUT 09Z AND 15Z WED...AND THAT/S WHEN THE MOST PERSISTENT
LES IS EXPECTED. RECENTLY ISSUED A LES ADVISORY FOR WARREN CTY
/MAINLY THE NW 1/3 OF THE CTY/ FROM 1 AM WED TO 4 PM WED FOR A
GENERAL 3-5 INCHES OF WIND WHIPPED SNOW AND OCNL VERY POOR VSBYS

VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF CLOUDS AND WINDY CONDITIONS WITH JUST SOME
FLURRIES WILL AFFECT THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION DURING THE
DAY WED. TEMP CURVE WILL BE VERY FLAT WEDNESDAY UNDER STRONG LLVL
COLD ADVECTION. MAX TEMPS AROUND 20F IN THE NW...AND LOWER TO MID
30S IN THE SE WILL BE JUST NEAR...TO A FEW DEG F BELOW NORMAL.

WINDS WILL RELAX BY WED AFTN AS HIGH PRES BUILDS TAKES UP BRIEF
RESIDENCE OVR PA. ANY LINGERING LAKE EFFECT OR UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD ALSO TAPER OFF THROUGHOUT THE AFTN.

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE N-S RIDGE AXIS WILL PROVIDE A RESPITE FROM
PRECIPITATION INTO THURSDAY...WITH THE SHIFTING FLOW TO THE
NORTHWEST BY MIDDAY THURSDAY PROVIDING ENOUGH MOISTURE AND COLD
AIR TO BRING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE NW MTNS...ESPECIALLY
WITH -13C AT 850MB. EXPECT LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS...WITH THE HEAVIEST
AMTS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGHS WILL AVG A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGS
BELOW NORMAL WITH SEASONABLY COLD OVERNIGHT READINGS IN THE TEENS
AND 20S. SOME OF THE USUALLY COLD RURAL VLYS IN THE NRN TIER COULD
TOUCH THE SINGLE DIGITS UNDER IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING.

THIS CLIPPER TYPE LOW WILL MOVE QUICKLY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE
STEADY MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD LIMIT AMTS TO BLW ADVY
CRITERIA. A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAK RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE AREA FRIDAY SHOULD STIFLE ANY
PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY WITH THE WEAK FLOW...THOUGH EARLY IN
THE PERIOD...BEFORE 12Z...THERE COULD BE STRONG ENOUGH FLOW AND COLD
AIR THAT COULD ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE COLD INTO SATURDAY. THE MODELS STILL COMPLETELY DISAGREE
ON THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM PROPAGATING THROUGH THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND. THE GFS MOVES IT THROUGH MORE RAPIDLY WHERE THE EC
DEEPENS THE STRONG AND TAKES IT FURTHER TO THE SOUTH. HAVE TENDED
TOWARD THE EC..WITH MOS GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS...AS WARM AIR DOESN`T
GET HERE UNTIL SUNDAY. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION ON SUNDAY SHOULD
SEE WARMER HIGHS IN THE 40S. BASED ON THE CONSENSUS AND RECENT
TRENDS...HAVE BEST PRECIP CHANCES BY MIDDAY SATURDAY...WITH A
POSSIBILITY OF A RAIN SNOW MIX. COLDER TEMPERATURES SUGGEST MOST
ARES WILL HAVE SNOW...HOWEVER THE LOWER SUSQ REGION IS STILL UP IN
THE AIR DEPENDING ON ANY WARM AIR ALOFT. AS SUCH HAVE LEFT RAIN
AND SNOW IN THE WORDING. MAIN PRECIP CHANCES ON SUNDAY ARE IN THE
NW MTNS AND THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ANOTHER TROUGH COULD MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY....THIS LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER
FAST MOVING SYSTEM BUT WITH TIMING IN QUESTION HAVE LEFT ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAIN ISSUE IS STRONG DRY PUNCH THAT RACE WELL EAST OF FRONT
ACORSS N PA. THIS LEFT DEVELOPING BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER NORTHERN OH EARLIER...NOW MOVING INTO THE NW MOUNTAINS. MAIN
CHANCE HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WIND GUST WILL BE BFD EARLY ON. SOME
CHC THAT A SHOWER WILL MAKE IT TO JST. IT WILL BE WINDY AT JST TOO.

FURTHER EAST...LESS CHC OF A SHOWER AT IPT...UNV...AOO...BUT WINDS
WILL BE ON THE GUSTY SIDE.

LLWS STILL POSSIBLE AT IPT...MDT...AND LNS FOR A FEW MORE HOURS...
UNTIL STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

WINDS ALOFT WILL BE FROM THE SW...MOST LOCATIONS WILL NOT SEE
MUCH IF ANY SNOW OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS BFD.

MVFR CIGS EXPECTED ON WED MORNING...GIVEN WINDS ALOFT SHIFTING
MORE TO THE WEST...AND SC.

EXPECT ALL AREAS TO BE VFR BY AFT.

OUTLOOK...
THU...SHSN OR EVEN A PERIOD OF STEADY LIGHT SNOW/REDUCED VSBYS
POSS...MAINLY W MTNS.
FRI...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
SAT...PERIODS OF LGT SNOW NW AND MIXED PRECIP SE.
SUN...NO SIGNIF WX.

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ004>006-010-011.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
PAZ004.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ017-024-033.

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...CERU/STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...CERU
AVIATION...LAMBERT/MARTIN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX

746 PM CST TUE JAN 17 2012

.DISCUSSION...FRONTAL BDRY IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING CORPUS AND IS
ORIENTED FROM SW TO NE ALONG THE COAST. THE FRONT SHOULD BE
THROUGH KINGSVILLE 815-830PM TIMEFRAME AND ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS BTWN 8-10PM. DEWPOINTS HAVE DROPPED AROUND 20 DEGREES
ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF THE CWA SINCE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS DRIER
AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE S THROUGH TONIGHT WITH MUCH COOLER
MN TEMPS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO DVLP OVER THE MARINE ZONES IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
CURRENT FCST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH CURRENT TRENDS AND EXPECTED
CONDITIONS...THEREFORE NO MAJOR CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 540 PM CST TUE JAN 17 2012/

DISCUSSION...SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ONLY MID/HI CLOUDS/CIGS
MAINLY TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD PICK UP WHERE THEY HAVE NOT...WITH
WINDS BECOMING NNE AT KCRP BY 02Z (SEA BREEZE HAS GONE THROUGH
AIRPORT). GUSTY NNE WINDS THIS EVENING AND MUCH OF OVERNIGHT AS
AREA GET STRONG PRESSURE RISES (WITH STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT)...THEN DECREASES BY DAYBREAK WITH WINDS EVENTUALLY
BECOMING NE/E LATE AS HIGH BEGINS TO MOVE EAST.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM CST TUE JAN 17 2012/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...A COLD FRONT IS
CURRENTLY DRAPED FROM NORTH OF VICTORIA TO NEAR LAREDO. THE FRONT
WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REST OF THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...PUSHING OFFSHORE BY EVENING. WITH A CAP REMAINING OVER
THE AREA DONT EXPECT TO SEE SHOWERS OVER LAND...BUT MAY BE ABLE TO
DEVELOP A FEW OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. RUC GUIDANCE HAS SEEMED
PRETTY REASONABLE WITH FRONTAL TIMING AND WINDS SO LARGELY GOING
WITH THAT FOR WINDS THIS EVENING...EXPECTING A BRIEF INCREASE OVER
LAND AREAS AND THEN AN INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS OVER THE WATER.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM 8PM THIS EVENING THROUGH
9AM TOMORROW. BEHIND THE FRONT HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD IN
AND LEAD TO LIGHT WINDS TOMORROW ACROSS THE AREA. BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WINDS ARE ALREADY SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST. AN AREA OF MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST SHOULD KEEP TEMPS
MAINLY IN THE 40S THIS EVENING...WITH SOME UPPER 30S IN THE FAR
NORTHEAST. AFTER NEAR RECORD HIGHS TODAY...MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN
THE 60S AREA WIDE TOMORROW. SOUTHERLY WINDS KEEP TEMPS UP
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
WILL FEATURE A MAINLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH A WARMING TREND ACROSS
SOUTH TEXAS...AND ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS. A GRADUAL MOISTENING OF THE
LOWER LEVELS WILL ALSO TAKE PLACE...WITH PERIODS OF OVERNIGHT AND
MORNING FOG/SEA FOG TO CONTEND WITH FRI/SAT. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL STALL OVER THE NORTHERN CWA SATURDAY MORNING AND WASH OUT. NEXT
CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL COME LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING AS A
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA. WILL KEEP
POPS IN THE 20% RANGE FOR NOW AS THERE HAVE BEEN SOME MODEL
CONSISTENCY ISSUES WITH TIMING/STRENGTH OF DISTURBANCE. THE
DISTURBANCE BECOMES ABSORBED INTO LARGER TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST ON
MONDAY...WHICH EVENTUALLY PUSHES A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA TUESDAY.
AGAIN...TIMING AND STRENGTH DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND CORRESPONDING COLD FRONT BETWEEN ECMWF/GFS.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 45 63 48 79 58 / 10 0 0 0 0
VICTORIA 38 61 46 75 57 / 10 0 0 0 0
LAREDO 47 64 52 78 58 / 0 0 0 0 0
ALICE 45 64 48 80 58 / 10 0 0 0 0
ROCKPORT 43 60 49 69 58 / 10 0 0 0 0
COTULLA 41 63 43 78 54 / 0 0 0 0 0
KINGSVILLE 46 64 48 80 58 / 10 0 0 0 0
NAVY CORPUS 47 61 51 73 60 / 10 0 0 0 0

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS...
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O`CONNOR...
COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20
TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP
CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

TE/81...SHORT TERM
GW/86...AVIATION

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX

551 PM CST TUE JAN 17 2012

.AVIATION...
VFR SKIES WITH SOME CIRRUS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING. HOWEVER...THE NAM AND RUC MODELS SHOW SOME ALTOCUMULUS
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND SOME STRATUS LATER ON WEDNESDAY. WILL
EVALUATE LATER RUNS FOR POSSIBLE INCLUSION IN LATER FORECASTS.
SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT AND MOVES OFF
TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY. N TO NE WINDS 8 TO 15 KTS THIS EVENING
WILL DECREASE TO 6 KTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT...AND THEN TURN TO THE S
AND SE 5 TO 10 KTS WEDNESDAY LATE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 PM CST TUE JAN 17 2012/

DISCUSSION...
THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH ALL BUT THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PART
OF OUR CWA. COLD AIR IS FILTERING IN WITH TEMPS DROPPING ACROSS
THE NORTH. LOOK FOR THIS TO CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH SKIES CLEARING.
THIS WILL MEAN A CHILLY MORNING WED AND MUCH COOLER HIGHS IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE SFC HIGH WILL MOVE QUICKLY OFF TO THE EAST AND THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL SWITCH BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST
AND WE WILL WARM BACK UP ABOVE NORMAL. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND. FOR THE MEDIUM
RANGE...MODELS DIFFER. GFS IS LOOKING A BIT MORE CONSISTENT AT
THIS TIME...SO HAVE TRIED TO BLEND WHILE LEANING TOWARD THE GFS.
THIS MEANS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA
FOR SUN NIGHT AND MON.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 34 60 45 78 53 / 0 0 0 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 30 60 40 77 50 / 0 0 0 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 33 60 42 77 51 / 0 0 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 32 60 45 76 49 / 0 0 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 39 64 41 76 48 / 0 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 29 59 42 76 50 / 0 0 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 35 63 42 77 50 / 0 0 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 33 60 42 76 51 / 0 0 0 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 36 58 44 73 55 / 0 0 - 0 -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 36 62 44 77 53 / 0 0 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 36 61 43 78 52 / 0 0 0 0 0

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...04
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...26
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...32

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX

540 PM CST TUE JAN 17 2012

.DISCUSSION...SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

.AVIATION...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ONLY MID/HI CLOUDS/CIGS
MAINLY TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD PICK UP WHERE THEY HAVE NOT...WITH
WINDS BECOMING NNE AT KCRP BY 02Z (SEA BREEZE HAS GONE THROUGH
AIRPORT). GUSTY NNE WINDS THIS EVENING AND MUCH OF OVERNIGHT AS
AREA GET STRONG PRESSURE RISES (WITH STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT)...THEN DECREASES BY DAYBREAK WITH WINDS EVENTUALLY
BECOMING NE/E LATE AS HIGH BEGINS TO MOVE EAST.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM CST TUE JAN 17 2012/

GW/86...AVIATION/MESO
TE/81...SYNOPTIC/GRIDS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS AMARILLO TX

1151 AM CST MON JAN 16 2012

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...STRONG WINDS AND POSSIBLE REDUCTION OF
VISIBILITIES DUE TO BLOWING DUST ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS AT ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH 03Z.

AT KAMA...STRONGEST WINDS WITH GUSTS NEAR 50 KT WILL OCCUR 20-24Z.
AIRPORT WEATHER WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 24Z WHICH SEEMS TO BE
ON TRACK AS WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BELOW 40 KT AFTER 00Z. THERE IS A
SMALL CHANCE BLOWING DUST COULD REDUCE CONDITIONS TO MVFR OR LOWER
20-24Z...BUT DID NOT MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE. COLD FRONT WILL
BRING WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH 09-13Z WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS 09-15Z.

FOR KDHT...THINK CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO KAMA WITH A
SLIGHTLY QUICKER ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT AND NORTH WINDS.

FOR KGUY...SURFACE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHTER THROUGH 24Z COMPARED
TO KAMA AND KDHT. COLD FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE 05-09Z WITH SMALL CHANCE
OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS 05-15Z.

MBS

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CST MON JAN 16 2012/

..WINDY TO VERY WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON...

UPDATE...
ISSUED A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE WEST TEXAS PANHANDLE INCLUDING
AMARILLO...CANYON...HEREFORD...AND DALHART. EXPANDED WIND ADVISORY
EAST TO INCLUDE BOISE CITY...STRATFORD...BORGER...PAMPA...AND
CLARENDON.

INCREASED WINDS AND HIGHEST ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...
UPGRADE TO A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE WEST TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS
AFTERNOON AS LATEST TUCUMCARI NM PROFILER INDICATED 45-55 KT 2-3 KM
MSL...ABOUT 3000-8000 FT AGL. HAVE MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT
THESE WINDS WILL MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
WARNING AREA...PARTICULARLY IN THE 2 TO 6 PM TIME FRAME.

EXPANDED THE WIND ADVISORY FARTHER EAST AS WELL THINKING HIGHER WINDS
WILL MIX EASTWARD DURING THE AFTERNOON.

BLOWING DUST IS ANOTHER CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO DRY SOILS AND
STRONG WINDS. WILL CONTINUE TO EVALUATE THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON.

THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP IN THE
2 TO 8 PM CST TIME FRAME ACROSS THE AREA AS LATEST RUC13 INDICATED
LIFTED INDICES 0 TO -2 AND UP TO 400 J/KG. CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S MAY BE REACHED. THESE STORMS COULD IGNITE
FIRES AND PRODUCE VERY LITTLE RAIN DUE TO HIGH CLOUD BASES. IN
ADDITION...VARIABLE WIND GUSTS COULD OCCUR. DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE
ESPECIALLY IN REGARDS TO THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...KEPT
THUNDER MENTION OUT OF FORECAST FOR NOW.

INCREASED HIGHS SLIGHTLY AS WELL WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUN EXPECTED.
CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP AND FILL IN LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.

MBS

FIRE WEATHER...
WINDY TO VERY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH
RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD STAY ABOVE 20 PERCENT.

THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR DRY LIGHTNING BETWEEN 2 AND 8 PM CST THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH COULD IGNITE FIRES.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 525 AM CST MON JAN 16 2012/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z KAMA TAF...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH...AND ARE LIKELY EVEN AFTER THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES. AS
SOON AS DIURNAL MIXING OCCURS...AROUND 15Z...EXPECT TO SEE SW WINDS
GUSTING AS HIGH AS 40KT...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS POSSIBLE BETWEEN
17 AND 22Z. WIND SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH AS WINDS DECOUPLE WITH SUNSET.
THEN THE FOCUS WILL BE ON THE COLD FRONT...WHICH AT THIS POINT LOOKS
TO ARRIVE RIGHT AT 12Z TOMORROW...AND THUS NOT MENTIONED IN THIS TAF
ISSUANCE. HOWEVER...THE FRONT WILL BE JUST NORTH OF THE PANHANDLES
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY SO THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING. ALSO OF
LOW CONFIDENCE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CEILINGS BEHIND THE FRONT.
THIS WILL DEPEND GREATLY ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND CURRENT
UPSTREAM OBS DO NOT SHOW LOW CEILINGS...THUS THINK IT IS UNLIKELY.

FOR THE 12Z KDHT AND KGUY TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL
THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES...THEN THERE IS A MINIMAL RISK THAT MVFR
CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT. FOR NOW HAVE ONLY MENTIONED
FEW020 AS IT IS STILL UNLIKELY THIS WILL OCCUR FOR THE REASONS
MENTIONED ABOVE. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...TIMING OF THE FRONT IS
UNCERTAIN AS IT IS EXPECTED TO STALL JUST NORTH OF THE PANHANDLES FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY. NAM AND GFS THOUGH ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE
FRONT WILL NOT ARRIVE AT KGUY OR KDHT UNTIL AFTER 06Z.

JOHNSON

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CST MON JAN 16 2012/

DISCUSSION...
WINDS WILL BE THE ISSUE OF THE DAY. WIND ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT
FROM 11 AM TO 6 PM ACROSS SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE. WINDY TO
BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE AS STRONG WINDS ALOFT MIX TO
THE SURFACE. WILL INCLUDE AREAS OF BLOWING DUST FOR SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN PARTS OF TEXAS PANHANDLE.

HIGHER DEWPOINTS POISED OVER EASTERN AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO WILL
KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FROM PLUMMETING...YET WITH STRONG WINDS
EXPECTED TODAY WILL ISSUE FIRE DANGER STATEMENT AS MANY AREAS WILL
FALL TO NEAR 20 PERCENT.

COLD FRONT ARRIVES TONIGHT...CAUSING MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY
TO BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO. LEE TROF QUICKLY REDEVELOPS ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH SOUTHWEST HALF OF FORECAST AREA RISING ABOVE CLIMO.

BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MOVES INTO NORTHEAST PART OF FORECAST AREA ON
THURSDAY...WHILE REMAINING SECTIONS REMAIN VERY WARM.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY EXPECTED TO BE WARM...AS ZONAL FLOW GRADUALLY
TRANSITIONS TO SOUTHWEST. NO POPS IN FORECAST. 03

COCKRELL

FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP TODAY AS RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES FALL TO AROUND 20 PERCENT. NORTHEAST WINDS ON
TUESDAY WILL BE MOIST...AND WILL TREND TO EAST AND SOUTHEAST
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AS DRY SOUTHWEST
WINDS INCREASE...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN SECTIONS. 03

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...DONLEY...GRAY...HANSFORD...
HUTCHINSON...SHERMAN.

HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...HARTLEY...MOORE...OLDHAM...
POTTER...RANDALL.

OK...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: CIMARRON.

17/08

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS AMARILLO TX

1122 AM CST MON JAN 16 2012

...WINDY TO VERY WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE WEST TEXAS PANHANDLE INCLUDING
AMARILLO...CANYON...HEREFORD...AND DALHART. EXPANDED WIND ADVISORY
EAST TO INCLUDE BOISE CITY...STRATFORD...BORGER...PAMPA...AND
CLARENDON.

INCREASED WINDS AND HIGHEST ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

.DISCUSSION...
UPGRADE TO A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE WEST TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS
AFTERNOON AS LATEST TUCUMCARI NM PROFILER INDICATED 45-55 KT 2-3 KM
MSL...ABOUT 3000-8000 FT AGL. HAVE MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT
THESE WINDS WILL MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
WARNING AREA...PARTICULARLY IN THE 2 TO 6 PM TIME FRAME.

EXPANDED THE WIND ADVISORY FARTHER EAST AS WELL THINKING HIGHER WINDS
WILL MIX EASTWARD DURING THE AFTERNOON.

BLOWING DUST IS ANOTHER CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO DRY SOILS AND
STRONG WINDS. WILL CONTINUE TO EVALUATE THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON.

INCREASED HIGHS SLIGHTLY AS WELL WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUN EXPECTED.
CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP AND FILL IN LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.

MBS

.FIRE WEATHER...
WINDY TO VERY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH
RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD STAY ABOVE 20 PERCENT.

THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR DRY LIGHTNING BETWEEN 2 AND 8 PM CST THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH COULD IGNITE FIRES.

MBS

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 525 AM CST MON JAN 16 2012/

JOHNSON

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CST MON JAN 16 2012/

BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MOVES INTO NORTHEAST PART OF FORECAST AREA ON
THURSDAY...WHILE REMAINING SECTIONS REMAIN VERY WARM.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY EXPECTED TO BE WARM...AS ZONAL FLOW GRADUALLY
TRANSITIONS TO SOUTHWEST. NO POPS IN FORECAST. 03

COCKRELL

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX 67 23 40 21 58 / 5 5 0 0 0
BEAVER OK 69 18 37 16 48 / 5 5 0 0 0
BOISE CITY OK 63 19 33 17 52 / 5 5 0 0 0
BORGER TX 70 26 39 22 57 / 5 5 0 0 0
BOYS RANCH TX 66 24 39 23 58 / 5 5 0 0 0
CANYON TX 68 27 42 21 62 / 5 5 0 0 0
CLARENDON TX 73 27 42 21 55 / 5 5 0 0 0
DALHART TX 63 21 36 17 54 / 5 5 0 0 0
GUYMON OK 68 18 36 17 53 / 5 5 0 0 0
HEREFORD TX 67 28 41 22 63 / 5 5 0 0 0
LIPSCOMB TX 71 22 38 17 48 / 5 5 0 0 0
PAMPA TX 68 23 37 21 51 / 5 5 0 0 0
SHAMROCK TX 75 25 42 19 50 / 5 5 0 0 0
WELLINGTON TX 76 29 45 22 51 / 5 5 0 0 0

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...DONLEY...GRAY...HANSFORD...
HUTCHINSON...SHERMAN.

HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...HARTLEY...MOORE...OLDHAM...
POTTER...RANDALL.

OK...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: CIMARRON.

17/08

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

250 PM CST MON JAN 16 2012

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
250 PM CST MON JAN 16 2012

FORECAST FOCUS REMAINS THE PCPN CHANCES FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH
A QUICK COOL DOWN AT MID WEEK.

16.12Z MODEL RUNS AND THE FORECAST STILL LOOKS ON TRACK WITH THE
PCPN POTENTIAL FOR LATE TONIGHT/TUE. LATEST WATERVAPOR IMAGERY
DEPICTED AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH DRIVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...MOVING NORTHEAST...WHILE ANOTHER TROUGH WAS MOVING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES. GFS/NAM TAKE THIS INTO SOUTHERN
MICH...WITH THIS FEATURE WORKING ON THE SFC FRONT THAT PASSED ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA TODAY. INTERACTING WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT...EXPECT AREAS OF PCPN TO DEVELOP AROUND THE FRONT AND
SHORTWAVE TRACK. MOST SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
INITIALLY...BUT MODELS HAVE BEEN BRINGING THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
PCPN INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHWEST WI TONIGHT. WITH GOOD
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IN THIS REGION AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL
SATURATION...THIS LOOKS REASONABLE. HOWEVER...NORTH-SOUTH RUNNING
X-SECTIONS AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS IN THIS REGION KEEP THE SATURATION
RELATIVELY SHALLOW INITIALLY...AND MORE SUPPORTIVE OF RAIN/FREEZING
RAIN //OR DRIZZLE// RATHER THAN SNOW. ICE GRADUALLY GETS INTRODUCED
INTO CLOUD TOPS OVERNIGHT AS SATURATION DEEPENS WITH THE APPROACH OF
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WILL KEEP THIS FREEZING PCPN CONFINED TO
THE SOUTH FOR NOW. VERTICAL MOISTURE PROFILES DEEPENS QUICKER NORTH
OF THERE TONIGHT...FAVORING SNOW. THERE COULD BE A COUPLE HOURS
WHERE FREEZING PCPN COULD OCCUR...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
ADD INTO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. STILL...TRENDS WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED AND CHANGES MADE IF THIS DOES COME TO FRUITION.

THE NORTH-SOUTH RUNNING GFS/NAM X-SECTIONS SATURATE THE ATMOSPHERE
BETWEEN 09-12Z TUE...AS THAT NEXT SHORTWAVE FROM THE ROCKIES MOVES
INTO MN. DECENT QG CONVERGENCE WITH THIS FEATURE...ESPECIALLY FOR
MN/NORTHERN WI. SHOULD SEE AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW IN RESPONSE TO THE
FORCING AND SATURATION FOR TUES MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...EXITING
EAST BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
DEEP DENDRITIC LAYER FOR A FEW HOURS...BUT THE FORCING ISN/T OVERLY
STRONG NOR IS THE MOISTURE THAT ABUNDANT. PLUS...THIS SYSTEM IS A
QUICK MOVER. SO...SNOW TOTALS SHOULD BE ON THE LOW-SIDE...WITH 1 TO
2 INCHES STILL LOOKING REASONABLE. COBB OUTPUT ALSO SUPPORTS THIS.

ALONG WITH THE PRECIPITATION WILL COME A SHOT OF COLDER AIR. 850 MB
TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO DROP FROM AROUND -2 C AT 00Z TUE TO -14 C AT
00Z WED. STEADY TO PERHAPS SLOWLY FAILING TEMPS ARE EXPECTED FOR
TUES AS A RESULT. TUE HIGHS WILL LIKELY BE AT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD FOR WED NIGHT...AND WITH SOME FRESH SNOW
COVER...LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE/BELOW ZERO.

16.12Z MODEL RUNS NEXT SLIDE ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE
REGION ON WED/WED EVENING...WITH RUNS IN PREVIOUS DAYS HAVING KEPT
THIS FEATURE A BIT MORE NORTH. NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE WITH THIS
INITIALLY AFTER THE DRIER/COLDER AIR WITH THE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE...BUT SOME INDICATION OF AN INCREASE IN LOW SATURATION OUT
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM/S ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT. THE DEEPER SATURATION
COMES WITH THE TROUGH ITSELF...AND IS STILL PREDOMINATELY ACROSS
MN/NORTHERN WI. FORCING WITH THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD PRODUCE SOME SNOW
FOR THE REGION...WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS UP TO AN INCH CURRENTLY
EXPECTED. IF THE LOW SATURATION DEVELOPS AS AGGRESSIVELY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT AS PROGGED BY THE NAM...A SHORT PERIOD OF FREEZING PCPN
WOULD BE POSSIBLE BEFORE FULL SATURATION CHANGES ANY PCPN OVER SNOW.
THE NAM WAS TOO ENTHUSIASTIC ON THE LOW SATURATION LAST NIGHT...AND
FEEL IT MIGHT BE OVERDOING IT AGAIN. WILL LEAN ON THE GFS/EC IN THIS
STEAD.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
250 PM CST MON JAN 16 2012

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE PASSING EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
EARLY ON FRIDAY WITH THE ECMWF AND GFS EXITING IT EAST IN THE
AFTERNOON...WITH THE GEM LINGERING IT A BIT LONGER. SOME DIFFERENCES
IN POSITIONING TOO...WITH THE EC FARTHEST NORTH...GFS SOUTH...AND
GEM IN THE MIDDLE. STILL...THE SHORTWAVE REMAINS PROGGED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE SOUTHERN 1/2 LOOKING MORE LIKELY
FOR ACCUMULATIONS. COULD SEE A FEW INCHES FROM THIS QUICK MOVING
SYSTEM.

SOME DISAGREEMENTS AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE GFS SLIDING
A SHORTWAVE/SFC FRONT ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON
SAT WHILE THE GEM/EC POINT TO MORE WEAK RIDGING. GOING TO SIDE
TOWARD THE RIDGING/CONSENSUS SOLUTION FOR NOW. IT DOES LOOK WARMER
FOR THE WEEKEND AS A SOUTHERLY FETCH RETURNS.

.AVIATION...THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY
1151 AM CST MON JAN 16 2012

DATA ANALYSIS AT 17Z HAS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL LAKE
SUPERIOR THROUGH KLSE...AND THEN THROUGH EASTERN IA. CURRENT
SATELLITE SHOWING MOSTLY HIGH ALTOCUMULUS/CIRRUS WITH BASES AOA
15KFT DRIFTING ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. MEANWHILE...AN AREA OF MVFR
STRATOCUMULUS WITH OCNL FLURRIES WAS SEEN BY SATELLITE AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF MN WITH A SLOW
DRIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST. RUC RH ANALYSIS AND PROJECTIONS SHOW A
TREND FOR THESE MVFR CLOUDS TO CONTINUE FILLING IN TO THE
SOUTHEAST IN COLD AIR ADVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. ESTIMATED TIME OF
ARRIVAL FOR MVFR CLOUDS AT KRST EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 20Z AND 24Z
AT KLSE. NEXT CONCERN WILL BE SNOW CHANCES TONIGHT ALONG WITH
LIKELIHOOD OF DETERIORATING MVFR CONDITIONS INTO IFR AFTER
MIDNIGHT. TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL
MOVE OUT INTO THE PLAINS LATE TONIGHT WITH LIFT PRODUCING -SN AT
KRST AROUND 06Z AND AT KLSE AROUND 07Z. MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TO QUICKLY DROP INTO IFR CATEGORY AROUND 08Z AT KRST AND AROUND
09Z AT KLSE...THEN REMAINING THERE THROUGH THE REST OF TUESDAY
MORNING. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. ALSO OF CONCERN WILL BE
POSSIBLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF THIS -SN IMPACTING KRST TUESDAY
MORNING WITH NORTH WINDS OF 15-25KT. DID NOT CARRY THE BLSN FOR
NOW...BUT WILL PASS ONTO THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT FORECASTER TO KEEP
AN EYE ON FOR POSSIBLE INCLUSION IN LATER TAFS.

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
250 PM CST MON JAN 16 2012

WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.

SHORT TERM... RIECK
LONG TERM.... RIECK
AVIATION..... DAS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

305 AM CST MON JAN 16 2012

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
305 AM CST MON JAN 16 2012

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON FREEZING RAIN CHANCES THIS EVENING
AND THEN SNOW CHANCES AND AMOUNTS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

DATA ANALYSIS AS 00Z SHOWS MODELS WERE SEVERELY OVERDOING THE THE
LOW LEVEL SATURATION AS AREA RAOB SOUNDINGS WERE QUITE DRY...AND
TEMPERATURE DEW POINT SPREADS REMAINED IN THE 5 TO 6 DEGREE RANGE
THROUGHOUT LAST EVENING. THE 06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT
BISECTING MINNESOTA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
FRONT HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING OFF MUCH WITH READINGS IN
THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30. 11-3.9 MICRON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
SURFACE REPORTS SHOWS HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE ONLY
STRATUS BEING CONFINED TO NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING...EXITING THE EASTERN COUNTIES BETWEEN 15Z-18Z. PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL THEN TIGHTEN SOMEWHAT BEHIND THE FRONT AS COOLER AIR
SPILLS INTO THE AREA. DESPITE THE COLD ADVECTION...TEMPERATURES WILL
REBOUND A FEW DEGREES FROM CURRENT READINGS FOR HIGHS TODAY.
MEANWHILE A SURFACE LOW WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEAST OUT OF KANSAS
AND ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MOISTURE WITH THIS SHOULD REMAIN
SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT WILL HAVE TO
WATCH FAR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON PERIOD.

FOR TONIGHT...SURFACE LOW CONTINUES PUSHING NORTHEAST AS SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ROTATES OUT INTO THE PLAINS. WILL SEE SOME MOISTURE PUSH INTO
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN AND PARTS OF NORTHEAST IOWA DURING THE EVENING
HOURS. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW NO ICE PRESENT WITHIN THE CLOUD LAYER
AND WITH SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES A FREEZING RAIN THREAT WILL BE
PRESENT. FOR NOW AREA SHOULD BE ON THE NORTHER FRINGE OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD AND THUS ONLY HAVE LOW END PROBABILITIES...BUT
WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR SOME LIGHT ICING PROBLEMS.
MEANWHILE...TO THE NORTH A BAND OF SNOW WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INTO
MINNESOTA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND THEN ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT. BUFKIT SOUNDS DO SATURATE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AND THUS ANY
PRECIPITATION AFTER 06Z LOOKS TO BE ALL SNOW. SWATH OF 700MB-
300MB QG CONVERGENCE AND 280K-290K LAYER ISENTROPIC LIFT ACCOMPANY
THE SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE AREA INTO TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE EXITING
EAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS CONSISTENT IN 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH MOST OF THE ACCUMULATION COMING
BETWEEN 06Z-18Z TUESDAY.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS QUICKLY INTO THE AREA...WITH
THE AXIS NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY 06Z. WITH CLEAR
SKIES...LIGHTS WIND AND SNOW COVER DID DROP LOWS BELOW GUIDANCE
VALUES...IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT MODELS DIVERGE WITH THE HANDLING
OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW. GFS LOOKS TO BE
THE OUTLIER AS ITS TAKES A SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE
16.00Z GEM/NAM AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS CLUSTERS THE SURFACE LOW TRACK
FURTHER NORTH ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN.
THUS DID FOLLOW THE MORE NORTHERN SOLUTIONS...WITH LOW SNOW
PROBABILITIES ACROSS THE FAR NORTH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN A
LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
305 AM CST MON JAN 16 2012

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON THURSDAY...WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES
DROPPING TO NEAR -20 CELSIUS. EVEN WITH SOME SUN EXPECTED...HIGHS
WILL ONLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS. THE HIGH SLIDES
OFF RATHER QUICKLY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW DROPPING OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE AREA FOR
FRIDAY. THIS COULD BRING A BAND OF SNOW TO THE AREA WITH THE ECMWF MORE
ROBUST...SUGGESTING SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. UPPER FLOW THEN
BECOMES MORE ZONAL FOR THE WEEKEND A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL BEGINS TO PUSH
WARMER AIR TOWARDS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES MODERATE QUITE A BIT
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES RISING BACK INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO AND THUS MAY PUSH SURFACE TEMPERATURES INTO THE
LOWER 40S FOR PARTS OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY.

.AVIATION...THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY
1131 PM CST SUN JAN 15 2012

THE LOW CLOUDS THAT HAVE FORMED THIS EVENING HAVE REMAINED OVER
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. THE 16.03Z RUC BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
NO LONGER SHOW SATURATION OCCURRING IN THE LOW LEVELS AT EITHER
TAF SITE AND HAVE PULLED ALL REMAINING MENTION OF ANY LOW CLOUDS.
ALSO REMOVED THE MVFR VISIBILITIES AS THE WINDS HAVE REMAINED UP
THIS EVENING TO KEEP THE LOW LEVELS MIXED AND NOT ALLOWING ANY FOG
TO FORM. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOME OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES BUT THERE SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP THE FOG
FROM FORMING. THE ONE EXCEPTION TO THIS MAY BE AT KLSE WHERE THE
WINDS MAY BECOME ALMOST CALM AND WITH A LITTLE EXTRA MOISTURE FROM
THE SNOW MELT TODAY SOME FOG COULD FORM LATE TONIGHT. SATELLITE
AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE MVFR CLOUD DECK THAT WAS
BEHIND THE FRONT EARLIER AS MOVE INTO CANADA AND JUST EXPECTING A
WIND SHIFT WITH SOME HIGH VFR CLOUDS ONCE THE FRONT COMES THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN CONDITIONS IS THEN
EXPECTED TO OCCUR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
305 AM CST MON JAN 16 2012

WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.

SHORT TERM...RABERDING
LONG TERM...RABERDING
AVIATION...04

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

1131 PM CST SUN JAN 15 2012

.SHORT TERM...
844 PM CST SUN JAN 15 2012

THE POSSIBILITY FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE TONIGHT APPEARS TO BE
DIMINISHING. THE 00Z KDVN SOUNDING WAS NOT SATURATED AT ALL IN THE
LOW LEVELS WHILE THE KGRB SOUNDING WAS MORE FAVORABLE. SATELLITE
AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWING THE LOW STRATUS CLOUDS ARE
BEGINNING TO FORM OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN WHERE THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS THE DEEPEST. LOOKING AT THE 00Z RUC BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
AND 00Z NAM PLAN VIEW DATA...IT NOW APPEARS THE ONLY PLACE WHERE
SATURATION MAY OCCUR IS IN THE I94 CORRIDOR AS THE RUC BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS STILL SATURATE KAUW AND TO A LESSER DEGREE KEAU. THE NAM
925 MB RH DATA CONFIRMS THIS AND ONLY HAS 90+ RH OVER CENTRAL INTO
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO REMOVE THE
FREEZING DRIZZLE FROM ALL BUT THE I94 CORRIDOR AND PUSH BACK THE
TIMING TO AFTER 05Z.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
245 PM CST SUN JAN 15 2012

ECMWF...GFS AND GEM ALL FAVOR DRIVING AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH FROM THE PLAINS TO ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
THU NIGHT-FRI. SOME DIFFERENCES IN PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF THIS
FEATURE...WITH THE EC THE QUICKER OF THE THREE. BOTH THE EC AND GFS
PRODUCE AN AREA OF PCPN NORTH OF THE MAIN PACKET OF ENERGY...AND
WOULD BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION TO THE
FORECAST AREA. THE GEM IS MORE ROBUST WITH A SHORTWAVE IN THE
NORTHERN STREAM...PRODUCING MORE QPF WITH IT AND LITTLE/IF ANY WITH
ITS PLAINS SHORTWAVE. LIKE THE CONSISTENCY OF THE GFS/EC FOR NOW AND
WILL CONTINUE WITH PCPN CHANCES IN THIS PERIOD. SOUTHERN FLOW
RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND...AND AFTER A MID WEEK COOL DOWN...LOOK
FOR SEASONABLE TO MILD TEMPERATURES IN THIS PERIOD.

.AVIATION...THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY
1131 PM CST SUN JAN 15 2012

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
245 PM CST SUN JAN 15 2012

WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM.... RIECK
AVIATION...04

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ALBANY NY

1229 AM EST WED JAN 18 2012

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
VERY STRONG WINDS JUST OUTSIDE THE FORECAST AREA COULD SCRAPE THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY EARY THHIS MORNING
AND INTO MID MORNING. SO...A HIGH WIND WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED
THERE. THE PRESSURE RISE FALL COUPLET IS TRACKING NORTHEAST ALONG
AND JUST NORTH OF THE U.S. CANADIAN BORDER WHICH IMPLIES THE
STRONGEST WINDS MAY JUST MISS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...BUT CLOSE
ENOUGH WHERE IS WOULD BE BEST TO WARN PEOPLE OF THE POSSIBILITY OF
DAMAGING WINDS JUST IN CASE. OF COURSE THE WIND ADVISORY IS STILL
IN EFFECT FOR OTHER AREAS.

JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES BASED ON CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS.

PREV AFD BELOW...

AS OF 930 PM...FORECAST ON TRACK. UPDATED POPS TO TIME COLD FRONT
AND SHOWERS ACROSS FORECAST AREA. HAVE LIKELY POPS ALONG BOUNDARY.
WINDS WILL SHIFT AND INCREASE BECOMING GUSTY WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS BASED ON OBSERVATIONAL
DATA.

PREVIOUS NEAR TERM...

EXPECT TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE TEENS OVER THE SRN DACKS...AND 20S
OVER MOST OF THE REST OF THE REGION...EXCEPT FOR THE THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY...AND SRN LITCHFIELD CTY WHERE SOME LOWER 30S ARE POSSIBLE.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER PROFILES INDICATE WIND
ADVISORY GUSTS ARE STILL POSSIBLE INTO THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
IF WE MIX TO 875-900 HPA OR SO. IF WE MIX HIGHER...THEN WE COULD
APPROACH SOME 50 KT GUSTS. OVERALL...NW WIND GUSTS OF 45-55 MPH
ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL ABOUT 20Z. KPOU IS MARGINAL WITH THE GUST
POTENTIAL AROUND 35 KTS OR SO. WE KEPT THAT LOCATION OUT OF THE
WIND ADVISORY. BLUSTERY AND COLD CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH
TEMPS FALLING IN THE 20S AND TEENS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH COLD
ADVECTION CONTINUING WITH H850 TEMPS FALLING TO -15C TO -20C. THE
NW FLOW FAVORS MULTIBANDS OVER CNTRL NY TOMORROW. SOME OF THE
NARROW MULTIBANDS CREEP INTO THE WRN MOHAWK VALLEY...AND ERN
CATSKILLS. A COATING TO AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE. WE
TENDED TO DECREASE THE POPS TO SLIGHT OR LOW CHC VALUES OVER THE
SRN GREENS...NRN TACONICS...AND BERKSHIRES WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER
DRYING OUT /WE ARE LOSING THE MOISTURE HERE/ AND THE MESOSCALE
GUIDANCE SHOWING LESS OF AN UPSLOPE EVENT.

IN THE LATE AFTERNOON...THE UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS OVER KYSR...AND
KRME SHOW THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LOWERING TO 4-5 KFT AGL
SQUELCHING ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW.

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT 1-3
HOURS...PASSING KGFL WITHIN THE NEXT FEW MINUTES...KALB BETWEEN
0540Z-0550Z...AND KPOU CLOSER TO 07Z-08Z. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
LIGHT/MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLE WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 KT
WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. IN ITS WAKE...EXPECT
W WINDS THROUGH DAYBREAK AT 10-20 KT AND GUSTS TO 25-35
KT...ALTHOUGH STRONGER GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KALB...ESP
NEARING DAYBREAK. WINDS WILL INCREASE FURTHER AROUND...AND SEVERAL
HOURS AFTER DAYBREAK...POSSIBLY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...FROM THE
W TO NW...INCREASING TO 15-25 KT...WITH GUSTS OF 35-45 KT
POSSIBLE...STRONGEST AT KALB. WINDS WILL BECOME NW AND SUBSIDE
RAPIDLY BETWEEN 23Z/WED AND 03Z/THU...LAST AT KALB.

AS FOR PRECIPITATION...OTHER THAN THE BRIEF RAIN SHOWERS WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE...THE NEXT CHC FOR PRECIP WILL BE POSSIBLE
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING TOWARD DAYBREAK...WITH
BEST CHC AT KALB...WITH ISOLATED/SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLY
CONTINUING UNTIL MIDDAY WED. ANY SNOW SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR VSBYS...AND COULD PRODUCE A DUSTING.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAINLY VFR LEVEL CLOUDS/VSBYS THROUGH 06Z/THU.

.HYDROLOGY...
NO MAJOR PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CTZ001.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ039>043-
047>054-058>061-063-082>084.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ032-033-
038.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR VTZ013>015.

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
AVIATION...KL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ALBANY NY

1203 AM EST WED JAN 18 2012

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
VERY STRONG WINDS JUST OUTSIDE THE FORECAST AREA COULD SCRAPE THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY EARY THHIS MORNING
AND INTO MID MORNING. SO...A HIGH WIND WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED
THERE. THE PRESSURE RISE FALL COUPLET IS TRACKING NORTHEAST ALONG
AND JUST NORTH OF THE U.S. CANADIAN BORDER WHICH IMPLIES THE
STRONGEST WINDS MAY JUST MISS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...BUT CLOSE
ENOUGH WHERE IS WOULD BE BEST TO WARN PEOPLE OF THE POSSIBILITY OF
DAMAGING WINDS JUST IN CASE. OF COURSE THE WIND ADVISORY IS STILL
IN EFFECT FOR OTHER AREAS.

JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES BASED ON CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS.

PREV AFD BELOW...

PREVIOUS NEAR TERM...

EXPECT TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE TEENS OVER THE SRN DACKS...AND 20S
OVER MOST OF THE REST OF THE REGION...EXCEPT FOR THE THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY...AND SRN LITCHFIELD CTY WHERE SOME LOWER 30S ARE POSSIBLE.

IN THE LATE AFTERNOON...THE UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS OVER KYSR...AND
KRME SHOW THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LOWERING TO 4-5 KFT AGL
SQUELCHING ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW.

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STEADY PRECIPITATION MOVED OFF TO OUR EAST LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THE AREA IS NOW IN A PRECIPITATION LULL...WAITING ON APPROACHING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK
WITH THE SURFACE LOW MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO. LARGE
PRESSURE FALLS ARE OCCURRING JUST TO WEST OF THE LOW PRESSURE
CENTER. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST THEN WEST WITH PASSAGE
OF THE COLD FRONT AND BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY. AT THIS TIME...THERE
IS A LINE OF CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK PRODUCING
VERY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND SOME DAMAGE...REFER TO NWS BUFFALO`S
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT (BUFLSRBUF) FOR DETAILS. EXPECT
THIS CONVECTION TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE STATE AND
ENCOUNTERS COLDER AND MORE STABLE AIR. HAVE ADDRESSED THE THREAT
FOR SHOWERS WITH THE COLD FRONT IN TAFS WITH VICINITY SHOWERS.

IFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES WITH AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IN ITS WAKE. HOWEVER...MVFR
IS EXPECTED WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY.

HAVE A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET MOVING ACROSS AREA SO HAVE ADDED LOW
LEVEL SHEAR TO KGFL AND KPOU WHERE HAS LIGHT SURFACE WINDS.

.HYDROLOGY...
NO MAJOR PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ001.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ039>043-047>054-
058>061-063-082>084.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ032-033-038.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ

344 AM EST WED JAN 18 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT PASSED THROUGH OUR REGION DURING THE NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WEST WILL FOLLOW FOR TODAY AND THURSDAY. A
COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE ON THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWING FOR FRIDAY. LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER
OR NEAR OUR REGION ON SATURDAY. A WEAK AREA LOW PRESSURE OR A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE WEST MAY ARRIVE ON MONDAY OR MONDAY
NIGHT.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM FOR TODAY WILL BE THE WIND THIS
MORNING.

A STRONG COLD FRONT IS CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. AMDAR SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING 50 KNOTS NEAR THE TOP OF THE
INVERSION NEAR AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. BASED ON WHAT HAS
OCCURRED ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA WITH THE
FRONT...TOP GUSTS OF 40 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE BEFORE DAWN ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

KMPO REPORTED GUSTS TO 42 KNOTS AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT.
SINCE THERE IS POTENTIAL...AND THE OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING SOME
OF THE POTENTIAL REACHING THE GROUND...A WIND ADVISORY WAS ISSUED
EARLIER FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. IT IS SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE AT 1200
UTC...AND ITS DISPOSITION WILL BE MONITORED AS THE EXPIRATION TIME
APPROACHES.

ELSEWHERE...IT DOES NOT APPEAR AS THOUGH THE TRANSFER WILL BE AS
EFFICIENT IN THE FRONTAL ZONE...EVEN THOUGH AMDAR SOUNDINGS SHOW
WINDS NEAR 50 KNOTS AT ABOUT 3000 FEET. WINDS ARE PEAKING NEAR 35
KNOTS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA BEHIND THE FRONT...AND
THIS IS DO IT AS FAR AS GUSTS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. AS
OF NOW...A WIND ADVISORY IS NOT BEING CONSIDERED.

THE MAIN AREA OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS SHOULD BE SHUNTED EAST
AS A STRONG SHORT WAVE CLEARS THE MID LEVELS THIS MORNING. BEHIND
THE FRONT...MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION IN THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION COULD LINGER IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS MORNING. IN
ADDITION...IT IS POSSIBLE WITH THE FLOW THIS MORNING THAT FLURRIES
OR EVEN SNOW SHOWERS FROM LAKE ERIE COULD AFFECT THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

ELSEWHERE...THE NEW AIRMASS IS DRY...AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
THAT MOST PLACES COULD SEE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES REACHED. RIGHT
NOW...THE AIRMASS LOOKS DRY ENOUGH FOR MOSTLY SUNNY TO WORK SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. NORTH AND WEST...THERE COULD BE A
PERIOD OF BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS...AND PARTLY SUNNY COULD WORK
BETTER THERE.

THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD BE THIS MORNING WITH THE TIGHTEST
GRADIENT AND BEST MIXING IN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION. WHILE WINDS
DROP OFF SOME THIS AFTERNOON...MOST PLACES PROBABLY SEE GUSTS FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY. FOR THE THE MOST PART...HIGHS WERE BASED ON THE
MOS BLEND. AFTER TEMPERATURES DROP THIS MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...THEY SHOULD RISE IN SPITE OF GOOD COLD AIR
ADVECTION...THEN START FALLING OFF LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE
EXCEPTION HERE COULD BE THE SOUTHERN POCONOS AND NORTHWEST NEW
JERSEY...WHERE MOS SHOULD TEMPERATURES FALLING SLOWLY MOST OF THE
DAY.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
THE LAST OF THE GRADIENT EXITS IN THE EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA. WINDS SHOULD DROP OFF IN PROTECTED AREAS
QUICKLY ENOUGH THIS EVENING TO PROMOTE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
(HELPS THAT THE AIR IS DRY AS WELL. HIGH CLOUDINESS AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SHORT WAVE IN THE FAST NORTHERN FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TIME FOR COLDER LOCATIONS TO DROP A FEW
DEGREES BELOW THE COLDEST MOS NUMBERS FOR LOWS. ELSEWHERE...A
BLEND OF MOS NUMBERS WAS USED FOR LOWS.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED OVER OUR REGION ON
THURSDAY MORNING AND IT SHOULD DRIFT OFF THE COAST DURING THE
COURSE OF THE DAY. HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS AHEAD OF OUR NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD OUR REGION DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO PASS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
STATES ON THURSDAY NIGHT. ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SHOULD PASS
THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA AT THAT TIME, AS WELL. THERE WILL NOT BE
A GREAT DEAL OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM. HOWEVER, SNOW
SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE IN MUCH OF OUR REGION. THE
BOUNDARY LAYER MAY BE A LITTLE TOO WARM TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW IN OUR
FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. NEVERTHELESS, LITTLE OR NO SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS ANTICIPATED EXCEPT PERHAPS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES WHERE A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO FOLLOW FOR FRIDAY, WHICH
SHOULD BE THE COLDEST OF THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HIGHS ARE FORECAST
TO BE MAINLY IN THE 30S, WITH READINGS REMAINING IN THE 20S IN THE
ELEVATED TERRAIN.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON
FRIDAY NIGHT AND IT SHOULD PASS OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR
FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO OUR REGION LATE ON FRIDAY NIGHT.
INITIALLY, TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT SHOULD BE COLD
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW IN ALL BUT OUR FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES.
HOWEVER, WITH WARM ADVECTION TAKING PLACE DURING THE COURSE OF THE
DAY, THE SNOW SHOULD CHANGE TO SLEET, THEN RAIN FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH WITH A WINTRY MIX POSSIBLY HOLDING THROUGH THE ENTIRE EVENT
IN THE LEHIGH VALLEY, THE POCONOS AND NORTHWESTERN NEW JERSEY.

THE 0000 UTC GFS AND THE 0000 UTC ECMWF DIVERGE A BIT WITH THEIR
SOLUTIONS BEYOND SATURDAY. FOR NOW, WE WILL INDICATE A BIT OF
PRECIPITATION LINGERING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. WE WILL CARRY A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY
IN THE FORECAST.

A WEAK SYSTEM FROM THE WEST MAY AFFECT OUR REGION ON MONDAY OR
MONDAY NIGHT, SO WE WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THOSE
TWO PERIODS.

IT DOES CONTINUE TO APPEAR AS THOUGH A WARMING TREND WILL TAKE
PLACE FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE NEW WEEK.

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CONDITIONS ARE VFR EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE REGION. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE AREA AFTER 0900 UTC. AS THE FRONT CROSSED
WESTERN AND CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...WINDS GUSTED TO 40 KNOTS.
HOWEVER...AS THE FRONT HAS MOVED EAST....AND NOW ENCOUNTERING
STRATIFIED AIR AHEAD OF IT...THE WIND GUSTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
QUITE AS STRONG WHEN THE FRONT CROSSES THE TERMINAL LOCATIONS.
THERE IS NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONT...AND
VFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE FOR A TIME THROUGH 1200 UTC...MAINLY AT
KABE AND KRDG.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD PEAK THIS MORNING...WITH GUSTS AT
JUST ABOUT ALL TERMINALS REACHING 28 TO 32 KNOTS. AS THE GRADIENT
EASES A BIT THIS AFTERNOON...THE GUST POTENTIAL WILL DROP
BACK...AND AFTER 1700 UTC MOST TERMINAL LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE GUSTS
CLOSER TO 25 KNOTS. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE REACHED IN THE NEW AIRMASS...SO VFR CEILINGS
ARE ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE AT KRDG AND KABE. ELSEWHERE...THE
STRATOCUMULUS COVER IS EXPECTED TO BE SCATTERED.

AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THE
GUSTINESS SHOULD END BETWEEN 2100 AND 2300 UTC. ANY CUMULUS SHOULD
BE RELEGATED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND ALL TERMINALS SHOULD BE
CLEAR BY 2300 UTC. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH MAINLY
HIGH CLOUDINESS LATER TONIGHT...ALONG WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, EVEN
THOUGH A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST MAY BRING SCATTERED LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ON THURSDAY NIGHT.

LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST MAY BRING A WINTRY
MIX OF PRECIPITATION TO OUR REGION FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY EVENING. LOW CEILING AND VISIBILITY VALUES ARE
ANTICIPATED. THE LOW CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST PART OF
SUNDAY DEPENDING UPON HOW QUICKLY THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT TO SEA.

.MARINE...
WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT REACHED THE UPPER END OF THE SMALL
CRAFT RANGE ACROSS THE LOWER DELAWARE BAY AND SOUTHERN OCEAN
WATERS. THE DEPTH OF THE MIXED LAYER WAS FAIRLY HIGH FOR A WARM
AIR ADVECTION EVENT...BUT THIS WILL CHANGE WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT.

WINDS WITH AND JUST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL GUST TO GALE FORCE
ACROSS ALL WATERS. THE BEST GRADIENT AND MIXING POTENTIAL WILL
LAST UNTIL ABOUT 1500 UTC. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL SHOWS THE BEST
GUSTS BETWEEN 1000 UTC AND 1400 UTC...AND THIS MAKES SENSE BASED
ON WHAT IS OCCURRING TO THE WEST OVER LAND. FOR NOW...THE GALE
WARNING ENDING TIME WILL NOT BE CHANGED BASED ON THE ABOVE...BUT
THE ENDING TIME COULD BE WHITTLED AWAY LATER THIS MORNING IF WINDS
DROP OFF FAST ENOUGH.

THE GRADIENT PROBABLY SUPPORT SMALL CRAFT WINDS AFTER 1800 UTC
THROUGH ABOUT 2200 UTC...AS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW DECENT GUST
POTENTIAL IN THE WEAKENING COLD AIR ADVECTION. SEAS RESPONDED TO
THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST FETCH OVER THE OCEAN WATERS. IT COULD TAKE THE
BETTER PART OF THE DAY TO COME DOWN BACK BELOW 5 FEET AS THE SWELL
SORTS ITSELF OUT.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS DURING THE
EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE GRADIENT
SHOULD RELAX ENOUGH SO THAT WINDS COULD DROP BELOW 10 KNOTS TOWARD
DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE ON THURSDAY
NIGHT. AS A RESULT, WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE FROM
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST SHOULD PASS OVER OR
NEAR OUR REGION ON SATURDAY. THE SYSTEM SHOULD NOT BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 KNOTS. HOWEVER, A
PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW MAY CAUSE
WAVE HEIGHTS TO BUILD TO 5 TO 6 FEET OVER THE WEEKEND ON OUR OCEAN
WATERS.

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR PAZ054-055.
NJ...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NJZ001.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ430-431-
450>455.

SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...HAYES
SHORT TERM...HAYES
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...IOVINO/HAYES
MARINE...IOVINO/HAYES

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

222 AM MST WED JAN 18 2012

.DISCUSSION...
219 AM MST WED JAN 18 2012

04Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED BROAD TROUGHING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH RUC ANALYSIS INDICATING A 160KT JET STREAK
JUST OFF OF THE PAC NW COAST. 00Z RAOBS INDICATED A COLD...DRY AND
FOR THE MOST PART STABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION.
SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATED A MUCH DEEPER COLD AIR MASS NOW IN PLACE
OVER THE AREA AS TEMPS ALOFT FELL IN EXCESS OF 15C AROUND H825 AT
DDC AND FELL 13C AT LBF AT H7. AT THE SFC...RIDGE WAS CENTERED OVER
SOUTHEAST KANSAS WITH A TROUGH OVER EASTERN WYOMING.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WILL MAINLY BE
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AND WIND SPEEDS TODAY.

TODAY-TONIGHT...LEE TROUGH TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN THROUGH
THE DAY AS WEAK RIDGING ALOFT OCCURS OVER THE AREA. WITH VERY STABLE
CONDITIONS AND LITTLE FORCING FOR ASCENT...EXPECT LITTLE MORE THAN
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. OVERNIGHT STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO BACK INTO THE CWA BY 09Z. LOOKS LIKE A
PERIOD OF LOW STRATUS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO THE
AREA. IF THE BOUNDARY LAYER WAS COMPLETELY SATURATED...COULD SEE A
THREAT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE FOLLOWED BY FLURRIES
AS COLD AIR DEEPENS...BUT GIVEN MOISTURE PROFILES WHERE THE FRONT
WILL ORIGINATE...AM DOUBTFUL THAT THINGS WOULD FULLY SATURATE. WILL
HAVE TO EXAMINE THE LATEST ENSEMBLE DATA BEFORE MAKING A FINAL
CALL...BUT CURRENT THINKING IS PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION
AT THIS TIME.

GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DECREASE A BIT DURING THE MORNING
HOURS...BUT WILL REDEVELOP DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
HOURS. VERY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED ALOFT TODAY...BUT WITH
SFC FLOW BEING ABOUT 70 DEGREES DIFFERENT THAN WINDS ALOFT...WEAK
INVERSION EXPECTED TO KEEP DEEP MIXING AND SNOW COVER IN SOME AREAS
WILL INHIBIT MIXING THESE WINDS DOWN...BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE
EYE ON THINGS DURING PEAK HEATING. WITH WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 30
MPH AND HUMIDITIES FALLING TO AROUND 20 PERCENT FIRE DANGER WILL BE
HIGHER THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS...BUT WITH WEAK MOISTURE ADVECTION AND
SNOW MELT IN SOME AREAS DO NOT EXPECT LOW HUMIDITIES TO BECOME
WIDESPREAD.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...INITIAL CONCERN WILL FOR THURSDAY WILL BE HOW
FAR WEST BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MOVES AND HOW STRONG TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT ACROSS IT WILL BE. BY THURSDAY MORNING...COLD AIR WILL
DEEPEN ENOUGH THAT IF THERE IS ANY PRECIPITATION THREAT IT WOULD BE
FLURRIES...BUT RIGHT NOW THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR A STRATUS
DECK TO DEVELOP AS FRONT PASSES WITH LITTLE THREAT OF MEANINGFUL
PRECIPITATION. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS FRONT
RETREATS ACROSS THE AREA AND WHILE A FEW STATIC STABILITY PROFILES
SUGGEST ATMOSPHERE WILL DESTABILIZE SOME IN THIS PERIOD...WITH
EXPECTED FLOW PATTERN AM DOUBTFUL THAT ANY MEANINGFUL MOISTURE
RETURN WOULD OCCUR TO ALLOW ANY INSTABILITY TO BE REALIZED.
POTENTIAL VORTICITY FIELDS SUGGEST A COMPACT SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. WITH MID LEVELS LESS
STABLE THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS COULD SEE A DECENT RESPONSE...BUT
GIVEN THE OVERALL PATTERN AND AVAILABLE GUIDANCE...THINK DO NOT SEE
ANY REALLY GREAT SOURCES OF MOISTURE TO SUPPORT ANY PRECIPITATION.
WHILE TROUGH MAY NOT BRING A PRECIP THREAT...DOES LOOK LIKE THIS
SYSTEM WILL CAUSE COLD FRONT TO ONCE AGAIN BACK INTO THE AREA
OVERNIGHT BRINGING ANOTHER PERIOD OF LOW STRATUS AND POTENTIALLY A
LARGE GRADIENT IN TEMPERATURES.

FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TEMPERATURES...EXPECT TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE 50S
IN THE WEST TO THE 20S IN THE EAST AS SHALLOW ARCTIC FRONT BACKS
INTO THE AREA. AM FAIRLY CONFIDENT IN COLD TEMPS IN THE EAST...WITH
BIG QUESTION BEING HOW FAR WEST FRONT WILL GET BEFORE IT BEGINS TO
RETREAT. WITH DIV Q FIELDS SUGGESTING SOME AGEOSTROPHIC SUPPORT FOR
PUSHING THE FRONT WEST AND HAVE LEANED TOWARDS A MORE AGGRESSIVE
WESTERLY PUSH FOR THE TIME BEING. THIS FRONTAL ZONE MAY CONTINUE TO
CAUSE A FEW PROBLEMS ON FRIDAY AS LARGE DISCREPANCIES EXIST IN
OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE. WITH PV ANOMALY MOVING ACROSS...THINK THIS
WILL HELP DISPLACE COLD AIR TO THE EAST BUT GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY
THINK HOLDING DOWN TEMPS IN THE EAST AND NORTHEAST REASONABLE AT
THIS POINT. /JRM

FOR THE PERIOD SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SHALLOW COLD AIR DOME MAY
HANG AROUND EARLY IN THE PERIOD ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA ON SATURDAY. MILDER TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. NEXT COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE
BACKED OFF ON SNOW CHANCES AND MOST ARE NOW DRY. COLDEST DAY LOOKS
TO BE TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE JANUARY...THEN
WARMING UP TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR WEDNESDAY. /24
JRM
&&

.AVIATION...
1017 PM MST TUE JAN 17 2012

FOR THE 06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
TIGHTER PRESSURE HAS DEVELOPED NEAR KGLD AS SURFACE HIGH MOVES TO
THE EAST AND LEE TROUGH STRENGTHENS. EXPECTED WINDS TO STAY GUSTY
THERE UNTIL NEAR 12Z. GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP AFTER SUNRISE AND WINDS
SHOULD BECOME GUSTY AGAIN UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY. WINDS WILL BECOME
VARIABLE LATE IN THE PERIOD AT KMCK AS A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA.

BULLER
&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CARIBOU ME

1214 AM EST WED JAN 18 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE WEDNESDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY...THEN MOVE EAST THURSDAY EVENING. ANOTHER DEVELOPING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FROM MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL MOVE TOWARD THE
GULF OF MAINE THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE...DROPPED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ACROSS INTERIOR
DOWNEAST AND CENTRAL MAINE. LEFT NORTHERN AREAS GOING FOR A WHILE
LONGER W/SNOW HANGING ON. STARTING TO SEE SOME CONVECTIVE SNOW
BURSTS ACROSS THE W AND NW AREAS AS COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES
START MOVING IN. TWEAKED TEMPERATURES DOWN MORE ACROSS THE NORTH
PER THE LATEST TRENDS AND HOW THE RUC IS NOW SHOWING THE WARM NOSE
FURTHER E AND S OF CAR-PQI.

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE STATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST TOWARD THE REGION. EXPECT
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS SHOULD DROP OFF AFTER
MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY ALLOWING FOR SOME DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING BY
THURSDAY MORNING. EXPECT SUBZERO LOWS ACROSS THE NORTH AND ZERO TO
5 ABOVE DOWNEAST.

.AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: AWW FOR BIA/BGR DONE.

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
MEZ001>006-010.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ050>052.

$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS MARQUETTE MI

1217 AM EST WED JAN 18 2012

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 06Z TAFS

.SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 503 PM EST

.SHORT TERM /TNGT AND WED/... ISSUED AT 503 PM EST

MAIN FCST CONCERNS ARE LES TRENDS/AMOUNTS AND GOING HEADLINES/NEED
TO MAKE ANY ADJUSTMENTS TO THESE.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...PARTICULARLY INTERIOR WEST IF CLOUDS CLEAR OUT AS MUCH AS
EXPECTED.

.AVIATION /FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

GRADUAL BACKING OF WINDS FROM NW TO SW OVERNIGHT THRU THE MORNING
WILL BRING AN END TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS...AND MVFR CIGS WILL
CLEAR OUT. LINGERING MVFR GIGS SHOULD CLEAR OUT AT KIWD IN THE NEXT
HR OR TWO PER SATELLITE TRENDS. AT KSAW...LINGERING FLURRIES AND
MVFR CIGS SHOULD CLEAR OUT TOWARD 12Z. AT KCMX...OVERLAKE
TRAJECTORIES WILL MAINTAIN FREQUENT -SHSN THRU THE NIGHT WITH MVFR
VIS AT TIMES. WIND SHIFT TO THE S TOWARD MID MORNING MAY BRING A
PERIOD OF IFR VIS IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS AS THE NORTHWARD MOVING
CONVERGENCE ZONE PASSES. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES
THIS AFTN. ARCTIC FRONT WILL SURGE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...40-50KT LOW-LEVEL JET WILL TRANSLATE
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTN/EVENING. AT THIS POINT...EXPECT ENOUGH
MIXING PER FCST SOUNDINGS TO MAINTAIN GUSTINESS AT THE SFC AND
PRECLUDE LLWS. WILL BE SOMETHING TO KEEP IN MIND. SOME -SN MAY BREAK
OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT MUCH BIGGER STORY WILL BE STRONG WINDS
AND MDT/HVY LAKE EFFECT SHSN ALONG AND BEHIND FRONT LATE EVENING AND
THRU THE NIGHT. NW WINDS WILL FAVOR KIWD/KCMX FOR WORST
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY KCMX. SNOW/BLSN MAY RESULT IN CONDITIONS
FALLING BLO AIRPORT MINS AT KCMX AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
&&

.MARINE /FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE/...

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MIZ006.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 7 AM THURSDAY TO 7 AM EST
FRIDAY FOR LSZ264>267.

GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
LSZ266-267.

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 1 AM EST /MIDNIGHT CST/
THURSDAY TO 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ FRIDAY FOR LSZ162-263.

GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM EST /9 PM CST/ THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
/NOON CST/ THURSDAY FOR LSZ162-263.

GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LSZ264-265.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...KC
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON NC

300 AM EST WED JAN 18 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. SHOWERS AND AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM COULD PRECEDE THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE AREA LATE TODAY AND THURSDAY...BRINGING DRY AND
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. A WEAK FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE AREA
LATE FRIDAY BEFORE TEMPORARILY STALLING. AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
RIDE E TO NE ALONG THE FRONT KEEPING THE AREA UNSETTLED INTO THE
WEEKEND. WITH THE FRONT STALLED NORTH OF THE AREA INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...THE AREA WILL EXPERIENCE 70 PLUS DEGREE HIGHS DURING EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE FRONT WILL FINALLY DROP SOUTH OF THE AREA BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT CURRENTLY IN THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT OF THE CAROLINAS WILL SWEEP EAST AND OFFSHORE
BEFORE NOON. THE MILD AIRMASS WE HAVE ENJOYED FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS
WILL BE PUSHED OFFSHORE...REPLACED BY MUCH COLDER AIR ORIGINATING
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST STATES. UNTIL THE FRONT ARRIVES...WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE WITH STORM-TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS AVERAGING A
THIRD OF AN INCH.

THE TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL BE OF TREMENDOUS IMPORTANCE IN OUR HIGH
TEMPERATURE FORECASTS FOR TODAY. FOR NWS VERIFICATION PURPOSES THE
HIGH TEMPERATURE IS DEFINED AS THE HIGHEST READING OBSERVED WITHIN
THE 12Z-00Z WINDOW...OR 7AM-7PM. SINCE THE FRONT WILL BE VERY NEAR
BOTH LBT AND FLO AT 7 AM THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT POTENTIAL TO BUST
THE HIGH AT THESE TWO LOCATIONS. THE 04Z AND 05Z HRRR RUNS APPEAR TO
BE VERIFYING VERY WELL WITH THE FRONTAL POSITION TO OUR WEST...AND
BOTH ARE ABOUT AN HOUR SLOWER THAN THE POSITION FORECAST BY THE 00Z
GFS. GFS LAMP GUIDANCE (SORT OF A RAPID-UPDATE MOS ADJUSTING THE
LATEST GFS RUN EACH HOUR) ALSO IMPLIES A SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE
FRONT WITH ITS WIND SHIFT TIMING AT LBT AND FLO. WE ARE THEREFORE
FORECASTING HIGHS SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE AT ALL SITES
TODAY...PARTICULARLY EAST OF I-95. AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CRASH INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

EVEN WITH GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES THIS AFTERNOON COLD ADVECTION
WILL OFFSET MUCH OF OUR INSOLATION...WITH A NEARLY STEADY
TEMPERATURE CURVE EXPECTED NOON THROUGH 4 PM. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN
FALL PRECIPITOUSLY TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES ALMOST OVERHEAD
LATE. LOWS SHOULD GENERALLY REACH THE UPPER 20S AWAY FROM THE COAST.
ONE FACTOR THAT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING DEEP INTO THE
20S TONIGHT WILL BE SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS ADVECTING OVERHEAD. BOTH THE
00Z NAM AND GFS SHOW 200-400 MB LAYER AVERAGE RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN
THE 70-90 PERCENT RANGE PERIODICALLY AFTER 03Z THIS EVENING.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...PROGRESSIVE WEATHER PATTERN SFC AND ALOFT TO
RULE THE SHORT TERM. THE ILM CWA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
LOW AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE TROF THU WHICH WILL TRANSLATE TO MORE OF A
WEST TO EAST ZONAL FLOW AT 5H BY FRIDAY NIGHT. AT THE SFC...WEAK SFC
RIDGING TO SLIDE OFF THE SE U.S. COAST BY EARLY FRIDAY...ALLOWING A
WEAK BUT DRY COLD FRONT TO APPROACH LATE THU NITE AND PUSH ACROSS
THE ILM CWA BEFORE STALLING SOUTH OF THE FA AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL
TO THE UPPER FLOW. THE NAM SEEMS LIKE THE OUTLIER BY STALLING THE
FRONT ACROSS THE FA WHEREAS THE GFS AND EUROPEAN SLIDE IT FAR ENOUGH
SOUTH B4 STALLING. MODELS HINT AT WEAK WEDGE-ING POSSIBLE FRIDAY
NIGHT. DUE TO THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE FLOW ESPECIALLY
ALOFT...WILL NOT BUY THIS SOLUTION. WILL STAY AT OR SLITELY COOLER
THAN GFS MOS GUIDANCE THRU THE SHORT TERM...WHICH BASICALLY RIGHT AT
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...THE LONG TERM WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED WITH
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AT THE START...TRANSLATING TO A LOW AMPLITUDE
LONGWAVE UPPER TROF BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. GFS A BIT MORE
VIGOROUS THAN THE EUROPEAN WITH A 5H S/W TROF FROM THE DESERT SW
THAT TRACKS ENE AND INTERACTS WITH THE STALLED FRONT BY PRODUCING AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ON THE FRONT. EUROPEAN AND GFS KEEP THE ACTUAL
SFC LOW INLAND AND NORTH OF THE ILM CWA AS IT MOVES NE OF THE FA BY
SUNDAY. LOOK FOR ITS ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT TO DROP AND STALL
ACROSS OR JUST SOUTH OF THE ILM CWA. HAVE INDICATED DECENT CHANCE
POPS DURING THE LOWS PASSAGE AND AHEAD OF ITS COLD FRONT DURING
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. NO PCPN TYPE ISSUES WITH TEMPS ON THE
MILD SIDE. AS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...POTENTIAL FOR BLOWN FORECAST TO
EXIST WITH A STATIONARY SFC FRONT TO LIE ACROSS OR JUST SOUTH OF THE
ILM CWA...WITH LONG-TERM MODELS INDICATING A POTENTIAL SFC LOW TO
TRACK ALONG AND AFFECT THE ILM CWA. FOR NOW...ONLY INDICATED 20-30
POPS LATE SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY AND WILL AWAIT FURTHER MODEL
CONSENSUS. EITHER SIDE OF THE STATIONARY FRONT COULD SEE A 20 DEGREE
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENTIAL. FOR NOW...STAYED ON THE MILDER/WARMER SIDE
OF GUIDANCE WHICH KEEPS TEMPS ABOVE CLIMO NORMS. COULD EVEN SEE 70+
DEGREE READINGS ON MONDAY AND/OR TUESDAY IF THE FA REMAINS ON THE
SOUTH SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...EXPECT GRADUALLY DETERIORATING CONDITIONS DUE TO SHOWERS
AND LOWERED VISIBILITY/CIGS WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CURRENT
RADAR DEPICTS AN AREA OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE INLAND SITES...WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY APPROACHING THE
COASTAL SITES. LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN AND
OCCASIONALLY LOWER INTO THE LOW MVFR RANGE...PERSISTING UNTIL THE
FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE AREA 12-15Z WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH WINDS 12G18 KTS.

TIME-HEIGHT ANALYSIS...FCST SOUNDINGS AND OTHER MODEL GUIDANCE ALL
SUPPORT A DEEP LAYER OF MOISTURE UP THROUGH 18Z WED. THEREFORE
ANTICIPATE RAIN TO PERSIST INTO THE MORNING HOURS. WOULD ANTICIPATE
WITH HEAVIER RAIN THAT VISIBILITIES AND CIGS WILL DROP TO MVFR/NEAR
IFR STATUS AT MOST SITES. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME
REGARDING IFR STATUS. AS THE FROPA MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
MORNING...WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST TO GENERALLY NORTH...WITH
WINDS GUSTY. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BEHIND THE FRONT...BACK TO VFR
BY THIS AFTERNOON. ANTICIPATE NORTH WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT AFTER
SUNSET.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SLIGHT CHANCE MVFR VISIBILITIES THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY MORNINGS. LOW CONFIDENCE FOR SHOWERS SATURDAY EVENING INTO
SUNDAY.

.MARINE...

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT IN THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS WILL MOVE EAST AND OFF THE COAST AROUND MID-MORNING.
SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL ABRUPTLY SHIFT TO THE NORTH
AS COLDER AIR POURS OFFSHORE BEHIND THE FRONT. SO FAR THIS MORNING
THE STRONGEST WINDS HAVE REMAINED 15-20+ MILES OFFSHORE WHERE WATER
AND AIR TEMPERATURES ARE HIGHEST. THE COOLER CONDITIONS NEARSHORE
HELP INSULATE THE OCEAN SURFACE FROM MUCH STRONGER WINDS ONLY
500-1000 FEET UP. THIS REDUCTION IN WIND IS ALSO PRODUCING MUCH
LOWER SEA HEIGHTS THAN ONE MIGHT EXPECT AHEAD OF SUCH A STRONG
FRONT. NORTH WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME NORTHEAST TONIGHT WITH
WIND SPEEDS REDUCING TO 15 KNOTS OR LESS AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO
NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA.

THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN POSTED THROUGH 1 PM FOR THE NC
WATERS...WITH AN EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINE FOR THE SC WATERS. THERE
IS SOME POTENTIAL THAT 20 KNOT WINDS MAY CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF
THE AFTERNOON WHICH MAY NECESSITATE AN EXTENSION OF THE EXERCISE
CAUTION HEADLINE. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TONIGHT WITH THE LIGHTER WIND
SPEEDS DEVELOPING.

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...ELONGATED CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE TO
PROGRESS ACROSS THE ILM WATERS THURSDAY THEN SLIDE FURTHER EAST THU
NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT BASICALLY TO BACKDOOR THE ILM
WATERS FROM THE NORTH DURING FRIDAY BEFORE TEMPORARILY STALLING JUST
SOUTH OF THE WATERS LATE FRIDAY. MODELS INDICATE THE VEERING WIND
FROM LIGHT NE EARLY THURSDAY VEERING TO THE SW AHEAD OF THE FRONT
THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HAVE TONED DOWN THE SW WIND SPEEDS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT DUE TO WAA WINDS PUSHING ACROSS SSTS IN THE 50S...WHICH
WILL WILL HAVE DIFFICULTY MIXING DOWN TO THE OCEAN SFC. WILL HAVE TO
RELY ON THE TEMPORARILY TIGHTENING OF THE SFC PG TO GET THESE HIER
WINDS BY EARLY FRI. AS FOR SEAS...AN EASTERLY 8-10 SECOND 1-2 FOOT
GROUND SWELL WILL OCCASIONALLY MIX WITH WEAK NE WIND WAVES
THURSDAY...THEN BECOME MORE DOMINATED BY SW WIND DRIVEN SHORT PERIOD
WAVES THU NITE INTO FRIDAY. OVERALL...WINDS AND SEAS TO STAY BELOW
SCA THRESHOLDS.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY THE STALLED FRONT
TO MEANDER ACROSS THE ILM WATERS AND INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR A
BUSTED FORECAST. FOR THE MOST PART...INDICATED THE STALLED FRONT
RETURNING NORTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY RESULTING WITH INCREASING SW
WINDS. THE LAST SFC LOW TO EXIT NE OF THE ILM CWA LATE
SUNDAY...ALLOWING THE COLD FRONT TO DRIFT BACK TO THE SOUTH LATE
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. MODELS DIFFER ON THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT
AS WELL AS WHERE THE FINAL RESTING GROUND OF THE COLD FRONT. WILL
INDICATE INCREASING SEAS FROM SW WINDS...JUST NOT AS LARGE AS
WAVEWATCH3 GUIDANCE INDICATES. HAVE LEANED CLOSER TO SWAN DUE TO
BETTER HANDLE OF WAA WINDS OVER COOLER SHELF WATERS. WILL HAVE
BORDERLINE SCEC OR SCA CONDITIONS LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ250-252.

NEAR TERM...TRARMSTRONG
SHORT TERM...DOUGCH
LONG TERM...DOUGCH
AVIATION...TRARMSTRONG/SGLACORTE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON OH

417 AM EST WED JAN 18 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL THE WEATHER OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
TODAY...WITH SNOW SHOWERS TAPERING OFF BY LATE MORNING. LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT
PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOW FOR THE REGION. ANOTHER WEATHER
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES HAVE PERSISTED OVER THE REGION A BIT
LONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED...AND CERTAINLY LONGER THAN
DEPICTED BY THE PRIMARY SUITE OF MODELS. THE HRRR WAS HELPFUL IN
DETERMINING THE EXTENT OF THE REMAINING SNOWFALL...AND ITS GRADUAL
DIMINISHING OVER THE COURSE OF THE MORNING.

SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST...AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES INTO THE AREA AND GETS STRETCHED OUT SW-TO-NE. THE COOL AIR
MASS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM RISING SIGNIFICANTLY...WITH HIGHS
IN THE FORECAST ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGY. WINDS WILL
SHIFT FROM NW (COLD ADVECTION) TO SW (WARM ADVECTION) LATE IN THE
DAY...BUT NOT SOON ENOUGH TO RAISE TEMPERATURES IN THE AFTERNOON.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THERE ARE TWO MAIN CONCERNS FOR THE SHORT TERM OF THE FORECAST.
THE FIRST IS A COLD FRONT WITH SNOW ON THURSDAY...AND THE SECOND
IS A SYSTEM BRINGING MIXED PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY.

WARM ADVECTION WILL BEGIN TONIGHT ON SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE SOUTHWEST FROM THE GREAT LAKES...AND WHILE THE FRONT IS
SOMEWHAT STRONG WITH REGARDS TO THE TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT...FORCING AND MOISTURE OVER THE CWA APPEAR TO BE
MARGINAL. THE BETTER FORCING APPEARS TO SET UP OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF (ESPECIALLY THE NORTHEASTERN QUARTER) OF THE CWA...WHERE THE
ORIENTATION OF THE FRONT IS A BIT MORE PERPENDICULAR TO ITS MOTION
VECTOR. IN ADDITION...TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL GET
WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A BIT OF MIXING WITH RAIN IN THE FAR SOUTH
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THUS...THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL TOTALS WILL BE
FORECAST IN THE NORTH...WITH AROUND AN INCH EXPECTED NEAR THE
NORTHERN BORDER. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED IN THE FAR
SOUTH.

WHILE LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY NOT ALLOW FOR TOTAL
CLEARING ON THURSDAY NIGHT...THE CENTER OF THE HIGH BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL BE OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS
(ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA) WILL BE A NEAR
CERTAINTY. IF CLEARING DEVELOPS IN SOME PLACES...THESE NUMBERS
COULD BE EVEN A LITTLE BIT HIGH.

IT IS BEGINNING TO APPEAR THAT THE WEATHER DISTURBANCE FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY WILL HAVE A RESPECTABLE IMPACT FOR THE
AREA...INCLUDING A MIX OF PRECIPITATION TYPES. HOWEVER...THERE ARE
STILL SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT...REGARDING
BOTH THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW. THESE
DIFFERENCES PRECLUDE MAKING AN EXTREMELY SPECIFIC OR DETERMINISTIC
FORECAST. HOWEVER...WHAT HAS BECOME CLEAR IS THAT THERE WILL BE A
ZONE OF A RELATIVELY DEEP LAYER (100 MB OR A FEW THOUSAND FEET AT
LEAST) OF TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING ABOVE THE SURFACE...WITH
TEMPS IN THE LOWER 30S TO UPPER 20S AT THE GROUND. AT THIS
TIME...THE ECMWF IS FORECASTING A STRONGER SURFACE LOW...WARMER
TEMPERATURES...AND A TIMING DIFFERENCE (FASTER) OF ABOUT SIX HOURS
AS COMPARED TO THE GFS. WITH VARYING DEGREES OF AGREEMENT (OR
DISAGREEMENT) BETWEEN SOME OF THE OTHER MODELS...WILL KEEP THINGS
RATHER GENERAL AND PROBABILISTIC IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW.

IN MAKING THE FIRST ATTEMPT TO INCLUDE THESE MIXED PRECIPITATION
ELEMENTS IN THE GRIDS...A TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN ALL-RAIN AND
ALL-SNOW ELEMENTS HAS BEEN INCLUDED ROUGHLY COINCIDENT WITH
SURFACE TEMPS BETWEEN 28 AND 32 DEGREES. THUS...THE BEST
INDICATIONS AT THIS TIME ARE THAT THE MIX ZONE WILL CUT THROUGH
THE CENTER OF THE CWA...WITH ALL RAIN POSSIBLE SOUTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER AND ALL SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE FAR NORTHWEST. THE EXACT
PLACEMENT AND TIMING (AND EVENTUALLY...MAGNITUDE) OF THE
TRANSITIONAL ZONE WILL BE ABLE TO BE REFINED ONCE MODEL AGREEMENT
IMPROVES. THE SNOW NORTH OF THE TRANSITION ZONE WILL LIKELY BE OF
THE ACCUMULATING NATURE.

AS THE PRECIPITATION PULLS OUT OF THE REGION...THE WARM AIR ALOFT
WILL DEPART BEFORE ALL OF THE SUB-FREEZING AIR AT THE SURFACE IS
IN PLACE. THUS...THE TRANSITION ON THE BACK EDGE OF THE SYSTEM
SHOULD JUST BE RAIN TO SNOW.

NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURES WERE RUN THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
ADVECTION DOMINATING THE RADIATIONAL COMPONENTS OF THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST. THIS WAS MOST NECESSARY FOR THURSDAY...AND FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A ZONAL FLOW REGIME SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL FEATURE A LACK OF
WEATHER PRODUCING SYSTEMS...SO KEPT POPS BELOW THE 25 PERCENT
THRESHOLD FOR MENTION OF PRECIP IN THE 3 TO 7 DAY FORECAST. DURING
THIS PERIOD...IT APPEARS THAT PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A
COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES WILL STAY OUT OF THE ILN AREA. SHOWERS ALONG
THE NEXT FRONTAL ZONE MAY ENTER THE AREA FROM THE WEST LATE ON
TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS
AVERAGING ABOUT 30. READINGS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE
THEREAFTER...REACHING AROUND 50 BY TUESDAY. THESE MILD FORECAST
TEMPS ARE ABOVE THE GFS BUT BELOW THE WARM ECMWF WHICH SUGGESTS
HIGHS IN THE 60S SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH 12Z.
THIS FEATURE COMBINED WITH CAA CROSSING OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM
WATERS OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL RESULT IN SOME FLURRIES AND
EMBEDDED SNOW SHOWERS. CONDITIONS SHOULD STAY MVFR FOR THE MOST
PART...BUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR VSBYS CAN NOT BE TOTALLY RULED
OUT IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS. AFTER THE DISTURBANCE DEPARTS TO THE
EAST...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME ANTICYCLONIC AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY SCATTER FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND MID
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS AND MVFR/IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY. MVFR/IFR
CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...HATZOS
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...HICKMAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PORTLAND OR

1046 PM PST TUE JAN 17 2012

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE TO NEAR ASTORIA BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE WEAKENING AND DRIFTING NORTH. THIS WILL
BRING VERY STRONG GUST WINDS TO THE COAST...THE CASCADES AND TO A
SMALLER EXTENT THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
SEVERAL MORE STORM SYSTEMS WILL BATTER THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

...URGENT NOTICE OF UPDATE...

THIS IS JUST A VERY QUICK UPDATE TO LET EVERYONE KNOW WE ARE IN THE
PROCESS OF UPGRADING TO A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE PORTLAND AND
VANCOUVER METRO AREA...AND OUR LOWLANDS TO THE NORTH. THE WARNING
WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY...AND THE APPROPRIATE ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE
MADE FOR THE FORECASTS.

SNOW HAS ALREADY ACCUMULATED UP TO AROUND AN INCH HERE AT THE OFFICE
IN NE PORTLAND AND LOCALLY UP TO 3 INCHES IN PARTS OF GRESHAM...
SEVERAL INCHES MORE ARE EXPECTED BEFORE CHANGEOVER TO RAIN OCCURS
WEDNESDAY MORNING. MUCH LESSER ACCUMULATIONS THUS FAR ON THE WEST
SIDE...BUT THEY ARE LIKELY TO START ACCUMULATING SOON. THIS IS
SHAPING UP TO BE A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER EVENT FOR
THE PORTLAND AND VANCOUVER METRO AREA.

.SHORT TERM...STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EXTENT OF
FINER DETAILS REGARDING THE POTENTIAL SNOW EVENT LATE TONIGHT.
STATING THE OBVIOUS...SNOWFALL TONIGHT WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON
ELEVATION AND HOW FAR NORTH ONE GETS. A MAJOR DRAWBACK PREVENTING
THIS FROM BEING A WIDESPREAD MAJOR SNOW EVENT IS THE LACK OF A COLD
AIR SOURCE. GRANTED...COLD AIR HAS WORKED ITS WAY INTO NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL WASHINGTON...BUT IT IS HAVING A HARD TIME MIGRATING SOUTH.
03Z TEMPS IN THE COLUMBIA BASIN WERE IN THE 30S...WHICH IS CERTAINLY
NOT FAVORABLE FOR DRAWING THE NEEDED COLD AIR THROUGH THE GORGE INTO
THE PORTLAND/VANCOUVER METRO AREA.

THE 00Z KSLE SOUNDING SHOWED ABOUT -4C AT 850 MB...WHICH WAS CLOSER
TO THE GFS FORECAST THAN THE NAM. ACTUALLY...THE GFS WAS A TOUCH TOO
WARM AND THE NAM A TAD COOL. RAPID UPDATE CYCLE (RUC) SOUNDING VIA
BUFKIT FOR KPDX INDICATES SNOW FROM ABOUT 07Z-16Z. THE RUC SOUNDING
FOR KSLE SHOWS ALL RAIN...WITH SNOW DOWN TO ABOUT 500 FEET. THUS...AS
HAS BEEN SAID THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...THERE IS A FINE LINE BETWEEN
THOSE THAT GET SOME SNOW AND THOSE THAT DO NOT. LOOK FOR OFFSHORE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW TO DEVELOP IN THE GORGE AROUND MIDNIGHT AND GET A
LITTLE STRONGER THROUGH THE LATE-NIGHT HOURS. NAM HAS THE SURFACE LOW
HEADED TOWARD ABOUT KTMK AT 15Z...BUT IT ENDS UP AT KAST
18Z-21Z...SIMILAR TO PAST COUPLE RUNS. STILL THINK THE OFFSHORE FLOW
WILL PULL JUST ENOUGH COLD AIR TO GIVE A PERIOD OF SNOW TO THE METRO
AREA...ESPECIALLY ABOVE 500 FEET. THE 12KM MM5-NAM SHOWS ABOUT 1 TO 4
INCHES FOR KPDX BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z...THEN EVERYTHING TURNS TO RAIN.
THE SAME MODEL SHOWS 1-2 INCH/HR...LOCALLY UP TO 3 IN/HR...SNOWFALL
RATES IN THE CASCADES. THE SKI AREAS HAVE ALREADY PICKED UP AROUND 2
FEET SINCE MON AFTERNOON (SEE PNS AND LSR). POINTS SOUTH OF SALEM
WILL LIKELY SEE LITTLE TO NO SNOW. THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH WILLAMETTE
VALLEY ABOVE 500 TO 1000 FEET WILL GET SOME OVERNIGHT...BUT IT WILL
NOT LAST LONG.

LATEST AVAILABLE MODELS MAINTAIN AN ABRUPT SHIFT TO STRONG SOUTH
LOW-LEVEL FLOW WED. THE CURRENT WIND WARNINGS REMAIN ON TRACK.
INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE RUC SOUNDING FOR KSLE VALID 17Z HAS SW
WIND OF 50 KTS AT 2100 FT...AND UP TO 80 KT AT 5000 FT. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE 100 MPH AT THE 7000 FT TIMBERLINE LODGE SENSOR.
ELSEWHERE...SOUTH WIND WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN ALONG THE CENTRAL
COAST AROUND MIDNIGHT...THEN SPREAD NORTH OVERNIGHT AND EARLY WED
MORNING. STILL LOOKS LIKE HIGH-END WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY WED...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF SALEM. THE LATEST MET
GUIDANCE SHOWS SUSTAINED WIND OF 28 KT FOR KSLE AT 18Z.

ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE THE QPF. AMSU TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
WERE AROUND 2.0 INCHES OUT AT 40N/144W. LATEST GFS HAS 6-HR RAINFALL
UP TO AN INCH ALONG THE COAST 06Z-12Z WED AND UP TO 2 INCHES 12Z-18Z.
COMBINE THAT WITH 60-75 KT 850 MB SWLY FLOW...THE OROGRAPHIC
COMPONENT SHOULD BE TREMENDOUS. BY 00Z THU THE CASCADE SNOW LEVELS
WILL BE UP ABOVE 3500 FEET...EXCEPT FOR THE S WA CASCADES AND EXTREME
N OREGON CASCADES CLOSEST TO THE GORGE. BY 06Z THU SNOW LEVELS GO UP
TO 4000 FEET NEAR MT. HOOD TO OVER 7000 FEET IN THE LANE COUNTY
CASCADES. THE NAM SHOWS ANOTHER SYSTEM DEVELOPING ALONG THE LEFT-OVER
BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER SWRN OREGON AND NRN CA THU WILL IMPACT THE
FORECAST AREA THU. WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...SEVERAL
SIGNIFICANT STORMS WILL TRACK OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH MUCH
FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. SNOW LEVELS REMAIN WELL ABOVE 3000 FEET WITH
THE SYSTEM THE MOVES THROUGH LATE FRIDAY...MAINTAINING HEAVY RAIN
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA INTO SATURDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES
LATE SATURDAY... BRINGING A THREAT FOR STRONG WINDS ALONG THE COAST
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP WITH
THIS SYSTEM...SO AREAS ABOVE ABOUT 1500 TO 2000 FEET CAN EXPECT SNOW
THROUGH SUNDAY. MODERATE PRECIPITATION CONTINUES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
UNDER A WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN...WITH ANOTHER POSSIBLY STRONG SYSTEM
BY MONDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN ABUNDANT PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

WILL BE KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON ANY HYDRO ISSUES THAT WILL LIKELY
APPEAR BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS RISING RIVER LEVELS ARE A CONCERN.
BROWN

.AVIATION...STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING
WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS AND TRENDING TO IFR AS
PRECIPITATION PICKS UP LATER TONIGHT. LOCATIONS NORTH AND WEST OF
KPDX WILL SEE SNOW MIXED IN...AS WELL AS IN THE COLUMBIA RIVER
GORGE. BUT SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE NOW EASED AROUND PORTLAND AND
TROUTDALE...AND NOW WE ARE SEEING SNOW AT KTTD AND RAIN/SNOW AT
KPDX. FEEL PRETTY CONFIDENT THAT VALLEY LOCATIONS SOUTH OF AURORA OR
SO WILL REMAIN ALL RAIN TONIGHT. THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ARE THE VERY
STRONG WINDS EXPECTED AT THE COAST AND POTENTIALLY INLAND AS
WELL...THOUGH THE INLAND WINDS ARE LESS CERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONS TO ALL MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN DURING THE
DAY BEFORE EASING TOMORROW NIGHT...AND EXPECT ALL LOCATIONS EXCEPT
THE GORGE TO BE RAIN BY MIDDAY. EXPECT A MIX OF MVFR AND MORE LIKELY
IFR TO CONTINUE. OF ADDITIONAL CONCERN ARE THE STRONG SOUTHERLY
WINDS TOMORROW THAT WILL BE FOUND NOT ONLY AT THE COAST...BUT EXPECT
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS IN THE VALLEY...WITH THE STRONGEST VALLEY
WINDS FROM SALEM SOUTH.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...EXPECT A RAIN/SNOW MIX TO CONTINUE THIS
EVENING...AND THEREFORE VARYING CONDITIONS FROM MVFR TO
IFR...BEFORE HEAVY PRECIPITATION ARRIVES OVERNIGHT WITH
PREDOMINANT IFR REGARDLESS OF PRECIP TYPE. IT IS POSSIBLE TO SEE
ACCUMULATING SNOW AT THE TERMINAL MAINLY OVERNIGHT. LIKE MOST
STORMS IT WILL BE SPLITTING HAIRS TO DETERMINE IF IT WILL STICK AT
KPDX OR NOT. LATEST GUIDANCE HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH...BUT WE WILL
CONTINUE TO WATCH AS TROUTDALE IS NOW SEEING ALL SNOW AND FALLING
TEMPERATURES. IF COLD AIR LINGERS LONG ENOUGH THE WORST CASE
SCENARIO WOULD BE 4 PLUS INCHES WHILE MOST GUIDANCE POINTS TO 1 TO
3 INCHES OF VERY WET SLUSHY ACCUMULATION IF ANY BEFORE A CHANGE OVER
TO RAIN. THAT SAID...MOST GUIDANCE IS TOO WARM ON SFC TEMPS AND
DEWPOINTS AT THE MOMENT...AND HAVE INCREASED CONCERNS ON STICKING
SNOW...GIVEN HEAVIER PRECIP RATES OVERNIGHT. SNOW WILL BE FALLING
HARD AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 500 FT.

CONFIDENCE LOW ON SPECIFIC SOUTHERLY WINDS TOMORROW...BUT EXPECT
BREEZY CROSS RUNWAY WINDS. KMD/WOLFE

.MARINE...AFTER A RELATIVE LULL IN COASTAL WATERS WINDS THIS
EVENING...EXPECT
WINDS AND SEAS TO RAPIDLY INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NAM
AND GFS BOUNDARY LAYER WIND SPEED BOTH REACH 60-70 KT FOR A SHORT
TIME IN THE MORNING...AND WITH 925-850 MB WINDS IN THE 80+ KNOT
RANGE. SOLID STORM FORCE WINDS WITH A PERIOD OF HURRICANE FORCE
WINDS STILL ON TRACK.

STARTING WEDNESDAY MORNING MORNING A VERY STRONG SYSTEM ARRIVES AND
BRINGS WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 65 KTS TO A GOOD PORTION OF THE
CENTRAL OREGON COASTAL WATERS...SO HAVE ISSUED A HURRICANE FORCE
WIND WARNING FROM 4 AM UNTIL 1 PM PST FOR THE CENTRAL COASTAL
WATERS. THE CENTER OF LOW PRES LOOKS TO PASS RIGHT OVER ASTORIA.
THEREFORE THE NORTHERN WATERS LOOK TO ESCAPE THE STRONGEST WINDS
BUT WINDS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE STRONG STORM FORCE GUST ARENA
DUE TO THE LOW PLACEMENT...THERE MAY BE AREAS WHERE WINDS QUICKLY
SWITCH FROM STRONG OFFSHORE TO VERY STRONG SOUTHWEST. THIS IS AN
EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM. PLEASE TAKE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS!

WILL MAINTAIN A HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST
WEDNESDAY AND THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR TIDAL OVERFLOW FOR
BOTH THE NORTH AND CENTRAL OREGON COAST. HIGH TIDE IN THE EARLY
MORNING AND STRONG TIDAL ANOMALY EXPECTED GIVEN THE STORM
STRENGTH. S/SW FACING LOCALES WILL EXPERIENCE THE ROUGHEST SURF
CONDITIONS. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER FOR THE NORTH OREGON COAST WITH
LOWER FORECAST SEAS WITH SHORT LOW PERIODS...BUT AGAIN NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION EITHER AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT AND SEE HOW
QUICKLY SEAS BUILD. KMD/WOLFE

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR NORTHERN
OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES-UPPER
HOOD RIVER VALLEY-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR CASCADE
FOOTHILLS IN LANE COUNTY-CASCADES IN LANE COUNTY.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR GREATER
PORTLAND METRO AREA.

WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 6 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR GREATER
PORTLAND METRO AREA.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST WEDNESDAY FOR CENTRAL
WILLAMETTE VALLEY-LOWER COLUMBIA-NORTH OREGON COAST-SOUTH
WILLAMETTE VALLEY.

HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM PST WEDNESDAY
FOR CENTRAL COAST RANGE OF WESTERN OREGON-CENTRAL OREGON
COAST.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM PST WEDNESDAY FOR CENTRAL COAST
RANGE OF WESTERN OREGON.

COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM PST WEDNESDAY FOR
CENTRAL OREGON COAST-NORTH OREGON COAST.

HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR CENTRAL
OREGON COAST.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON PST WEDNESDAY FOR COAST RANGE
OF NORTHWEST OREGON.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 4 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR CENTRAL
WILLAMETTE VALLEY-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY.

HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR COAST
RANGE OF NORTHWEST OREGON-NORTH OREGON COAST.

WA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR SOUTH
WASHINGTON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES-
WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR GREATER
VANCOUVER AREA.

WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 6 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR GREATER
VANCOUVER AREA.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST WEDNESDAY FOR I-5
CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ COUNTY-SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON PST WEDNESDAY FOR WILLAPA HILLS.

PZ...STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL
WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 10
NM-WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM
10 TO 60 NM.

STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 4 AM PST WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL
WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR OUT 10 NM-WATERS FROM
CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM PST WEDNESDAY
FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR OUT 10 NM-
WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR THROUGH WED
AFTERNOON.

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PORTLAND OR

851 PM PST TUE JAN 17 2012

WILL BE KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON ANY HYDRO ISSUES THAT WILL LIKELY
APPEAR BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS RISING RIVER LEVELS ARE A CONCERN.
BROWN

PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONS TO ALL MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN DURING THE
DAY BEFORE EASING TOMORROW NIGHT...AND EXPECT ALL LOCATIONS EXCEPT
THE GORGE TO BE RAIN BY MIDDDAY. EXPECT A MIX OF MVFR AND MORE LIKELY
IFR TO CONTINUE. OF ADDITIONAL CONCERN ARE THE STRONG SOUTHERLY
WINDS TOMORROW THAT WILL BE FOUND NOT ONLY AT THE COAST...BUT EXPECT
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS IN THE VALLEY...WITH THE STRONGEST VALLEY
WINDS FROM SALEM SOUTH.