Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 01/07/12
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
943 PM MST WED JAN 4 2012
.DISCUSSION...
232 PM MST WED JAN 4 2012
EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RUC H5 ANALYSIS SHOW PATTERN ACROSS
HIGH PLAINS DOMINATED BY LARGE SCALE RIDGE. WITH DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...IMMEDIATE FOCUS REMAINS ON
NEAR RECORD TEMPS ON THURSDAY.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...H5 RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT SOUTH BY THURSDAY
MORNING...WITH WESTERLY FLOW AND THERMAL TROUGH SUPPORTING WARMER
AIR MASS OVER CWA. THURSDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK TO BE VERY
WARM...WITH NEAR RECORD HIGHS OVER PARTS OF THE CWA. SNOW PACK
CONTINUED TO DETERIORATE TODAY IN THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PART OF
CWA...AND IM NOT CONFIDENT IT WILL HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT
THURSDAY. FOR NOW BEST MIXING STILL APPEARS TO BE OVER NORTHERN
AND WESTERN PARTS OF CWA...WHERE TEMPS AROUND 70 ARE POSSIBLE.
FURTHER SOUTH...I HAVE TRENDED TEMPS UP SLIGHTLY...THOUGH STILL IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S TO ACCOUNT FOR LESSENING IMPACT OF SNOW COVER
IN THE SOUTH. WHILE RH VALUES THURSDAY LOOK TO APPROACH CRITICAL
LEVELS...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT AND BELOW RED FLAG
CRITERIA.
DRY COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH OVER CWA BY FRIDAY MORNING WITH TEMPS
DROPPING BACK CLOSER TO SEASONAL LEVELS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT...THOUGH THEY STILL APPEAR TO BE WARMER THAN NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S.
SATURDAY-TUESDAY...MOST GUIDANCE CURRENTLY SHOWING CUTOFF LOW
DEVELOPING OVER SW CONUS...WITH SPLIT FLOW ACROSS THE
PLAINS...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE
EXTENDED. 06Z/12Z GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE OUTLIER SHOWING THIS
TROUGH PASSING THROUGH THE PLAINS AS OPEN WAVE. WITH THE GEFS
SHOWING SUPPORT FOR THE THE CLOSED SW LOW SOLUTION OF THE
ECMWF/GEM...I DECIDED TO DISCOUNT THE WETTER GFS SOLUTION. BIGGER
QUESTION IN THE EXTENDED WITH BE TO WHAT EXTENT TEMPS WARM UP
MONDAY/TUESDAY. TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S SEEMS REASONABLE FOR
NOW...WITH ECMWF POSSIBLE SUPPORTING TEMPS EVEN A LITTLE WARMER
THESE DAYS.
DR
&&
.AVIATION...
943 PM MST WED JAN 4 2012
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WITH ONLY PASSING HIGH CLOUDS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST
FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD AND REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
ENTER THE AREA NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST
AROUND THE 06Z FRIDAY TIME FRAME.
050
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS PADUCAH KY
919 PM CST FRI JAN 6 2012
.UPDATE...
INTERIM FORECAST UPDATE TO ADDRESS NEAR TERM CLOUD
COVER...TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION ISSUES OVER SOUTHERN
PENNYRILE.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
MAIN ADJUSTMENT FOR THIS EVENING WAS TO ADJUST THE SPATIAL
COVERAGE OF THE OPAQUE CLOUD COVER AND SLOWED THE TIMING OF
NORTHWARD TRANSPORT OF THIS CLOUD COVER DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
SIMILAR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO SLOW THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SLIGHTLY
/1-2 HOURS/ AND INCREASE DEWPOINTS /1-2 DEGREES/ A LITTLE FASTER
/1-2 HOURS/. FINALLY...MADE SOME TEMPORAL ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
INFLUX OF HIGHER POPS INTO THE EXTREME SOUTHER PENNYRILE OVERNIGHT.
THE 12KM NAM-WRF/5KM DOWNGRADE VERSION OF THE NAM-WRF/13KM RUC AND
SREF GUIDANCE APPEARED TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE
MOISTURE/WIND/MASS FIELDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS PERIOD...SO
THIS GUIDANCE WAS INCORPORATED INTO THE FIRST PERIOD FORECAST UPDATE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 240 PM CST FRI JAN 6 2012/
ANOTHER QUIET DAY TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL. MOST
IF NOT ALL STATIONS REPORTED AT LEAST 60 DEGREES OR ABOVE. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...NOW STRETCHING ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN DOWN INTO
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...WILL CONTINUE HEADING OUR WAY. MOISTURE IS
ALREADY SURGING NORTHWARD AS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE/OBSERVATIONS. WE
SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE THIS MOISTURE MOVE NORTHWARD THE REST OF
TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...LEADING TO AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. THE FRONT STARTS MOVING INTO THE AREA
AND STARTS TO SCOUR US OUT LATER THIS EVENING. THE MOISTURE IS
RATHER SHALLOW...BUT DOES BECOME DEEPER OVER WEST KENTUCKY THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY AHEAD
OF THE FRONT DUE TO THIS DEEPER MOISTURE...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE
LIMITED. BEST CHANCES WILL BE FROM MURRAY TO MADISONVILLE AND
SOUTHWARD...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE TENNESSEE BORDER.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. WHILE WE
WILL SEE A SLIGHT COOL DOWN...MOST OF THE COLD AIR WILL BE
SITUATED ACROSS THE MIDWESTERN STATES. THEREFORE...WE WILL STAY
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES.
MEANWHILE...OVER THE WEEKEND...ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BE DIVING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY SUNDAY MORNING. MODELS AGREE IN CUTTING
OFF THE UPPER LOW OVER NM/WEST TX...WHICH SHOULD ACT TO KEEP ANY
POSSIBLE ACTIVITY TO OUR SOUTH WHERE THE MAIN SFC LOW WILL FORM.
12Z MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT IN KEEPING THE AREA DRY MONDAY THROUGH
AT LEAST TUESDAY MORNING...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE
REGION. DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF THE HIGH...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON MONDAY.
LOOKING TO OUR MID WEEK MESS...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE IN
PRINCIPLE...BUT DISAGREE ON THE DETAILS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER IN OUR
AREA. THE 12Z ECMWF HAS CONTINUED TO TREND SLOWER AND SOUTH WITH THE
CLOSED LOW COMING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST...EFFECTIVELY KEEPING THE
ENTIRE AREA DRY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. ALL OTHER GUIDANCE IS
POINTING TO A MOSTLY DRY TUESDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN/SHOWERS
SPREADING ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERED POPS A BIT
ON OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN BORDER AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT LEFT
THE OLD CONSENSUS MOSTLY IN PLAY.
ANOTHER TREND FROM 24 HOURS AGO IS NOTED IN THE GFS WHICH IS FARTHER
EAST WITH ITS NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM...AND THE ASSOCIATED CANADIAN
SURFACE HIGH. IT ACTUALLY BRINGS THE COLD AIR INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
BEFORE THE DEFORMATION ZONE RAIN EXITS THE AREA. BASED SOLELY ON THE
GFS SOLUTION...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A BRIEF CHANGE OVER TO
SNOW BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION ENDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. OF COURSE
THE 12Z ECMWF KEEPS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS COMPLETELY DRY THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. KEPT THE PREVIOUS CONSENSUS CHANCY POPS FOR WEDNESDAY...AND
WENT WITH A WARMER SOLUTION THAN THE GFS...KEEPING THE PRECIPITATION
ALL RAIN WEDNESDAY.
THE ECMWF AND GFS EACH PIVOT THE MAIN MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH
THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...BUT ARE DRY COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY. HAVE SLIGHT POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND KEPT IT DRY FOR
THURSDAY. WOULD EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY
TO QUICKLY BECOME SNOW WITH COOL AIR AT THE LOW-LEVELS AND ALOFT.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY SETTLES SOUTH OF THE AREA BY 00Z
SATURDAY...BUT SHOULD SEE A RATHER CHILLY END TO THE WEEK...WITH OR
WITHOUT ANY SNOW COVER.
THE MODELS HAVE NOT DETERMINED MUCH FOR OUR MID-WEEK STORM SYSTEM AS
OF YET...HOPEFULLY THEY WILL HASH IT OUR OVER THE WEEKEND. STAY
TUNED.
&&
.AVIATION... /ISSUED 531 PM CST FRI JAN 6 2012/
SW WINDS AOB 10 KTS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
THIS EVENING...BUT ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE SOUTH
AND EAST OF ALL TAF SITES. FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT KPAH WILL ACQUIRE
A MVFR CEILING BUT CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR AT THE OTHER SITES.
OTHERWISE...THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT...CAUSING
A WIND SHIFT FROM SW TO NW TO EVENTUALLY N. THE FRONT WILL SCOUR
OUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...JAP
SHORT TERM PUBLIC...SMITH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
820 PM EST FRI JAN 6 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND INTO
SATURDAY AND THEN EAST OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPDATE2: BASED ON THE HRRR MODEL, WILL END PRECIPITATION FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH AROUND MIDNIGHT AND THEN MAINLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. BOTH NAM AND GFS
INDICATES NEXT ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW FOR NORTHERN SECTIONS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON SO HAVE INCREASED POPS TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS THE NORTH.
UPDATE1: FORECAST ON TRACK SO NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED AT
THIS TIME.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: A WARM FRONT MOVING ACROSS WESTERN MAINE
WILL BECOME QUASI- STATIONARY IN NORTHERN MAINE LATER TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIGHT SNOW TONIGHT FOR ALL
AREAS...ENDING TOWARDS THE DOWN EAST COAST THIS EVENING. FAVORED
SREF POPS FOR TONIGHT.
THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH TO
THE VICINITY OF HOULTON BY MORNING...BUT THEN STALL. THIS MEANS
LIGHT SNOW ALL DAY SATURDAY FOR NORTHERN ZONES AS THE THERMAL
GRADIENT PERSISTS THROUGH THE DAY AND LOW PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO MAINE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY BY LATE
SATURDAY. SFC PRESSURE FALLS SEEM TO BE CONFIRMING NWP GUIDANCE
FOR THIS TRACK. INITIALLY LIKED THIS MORNING`S 12Z GEMS...BUT THE
LATEST OPERATIONAL ECMWF AND GFS ARE FOLLOWING ITS LEAD. THIS
MEANS THE BEST FORCING ON SATURDAY WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN
ZONES...IN LINE WITH THE ENTRANCE REGION TO AN UPPER LVL JET. FOR
TEMPERATURES...LIKED GEMS/NAM/RUC AS ARCTIC AIR WILL BE SLOW TO
RETREAT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STEADY
OVERNIGHT...BUT RISE TO THE MID 30S DOWN EAST SATURDAY WHERE SOME
SUNSHINE MAY BREAK THROUGH BY MIDDAY. IN THE NORTHERN ZONES WITH
THE SNOW...HIGHS WILL REACH THE MID-UPPER 20S.
OVERALL...THE POTENTIAL FOR TWO TO FOUR INCHES EXISTS ACROSS ZONES
ONE THROUGH FIVE BY SATURDAY EVENING. AM NOT INCLINED TO ISSUE
ADVISORY AT THIS POINT DUE TO THE LONG DURATION OF THE
EVENT...LIGHT INTENSITY AND THE FACT THAT WIDESPREAD AREAS OF
GREATER THAN FOUR INCHES IN 24 HOURS IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS POINT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
IN THE WAKE OF A DEPARTING LOW SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL
LINGER OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE SATURDAY EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION WILL BE UNDER
AN INCH. SUNDAY WILL FEATURE A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS WITH COLDER
TEMPERATURES IN THE WAKE OF AN ARCTIC FRONT. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS IN THE NORTH TO THE LOW 30S ALONG THE
COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS
DIPPING INTO THE MINUS SINGLE DIGITS NORTH WHILE AREAS DOWNEAST
SEE LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS. LITTLE CHANGE IS IN STORE FOR
MONDAY AS FAIR WEATHER WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES PERSIST ACROSS
THE AREA UNDER A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CHALLENGE THIS TERM WILL BE POSSIBLE STORM SYSTEM LATE NEXT WEEK
AND TEMPERATURES.
A SHORTWAVE IS SHOWN BY THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION ON TUESDAY BRINGING A ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS TO
THE CWA. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR THIS LOOKS TO BE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN TIER OF THE CWA AND THAT IS WHERE 30-40% POPS
WERE SITUATED. HIGH PRES IS SHOWN TO BRIEFLY RIDGE ACROSS THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY W/SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR SHOWN TO MOVE IN.
NOW COMES THE INTERESTING PART TO THE FCST FOR THURSDAY INTO EARLY
FRIDAY AS THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF NOW SUPPORT A MORE WESTERN
TRACK W/THE LOW MOVING OUT OF THE GULF STATES. THE MAJORITY OF 12Z
GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUPPORT A TRACK THROUGH THE STATE OF MAINE OR
THROUGH THE VT REGION. THIS WOULD MEAN A WARMER SOLUTION. AS WAS
STATED BY THE MIDNIGHT CREW, THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
SWITCHING BACK AND FORTH W/THE TRACK AND CONFIDENCE STILL NOT
HIGHER THAN 40%. THEREFORE, DECIDED TO STAY CLOSER THE PREVIOUS
FCST AND KEEP TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH
AND RAIN/SNOW ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AND COAST TO ALLOW FOR A SHIFT
BACK TO THE EAST IF THAT DOES HAPPEN. GMOS TEMPERATURES WERE TWEAKED
UP A CATEGORY FOR BOTH THE MAXES AND MINS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AT
ANY RATE, TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THEIR TREND OF ABOVE NORMAL
FOR JANUARY. ATTM, KEPT PRECIP CHCS NO HIGHER THAN 50% W/THIS
EVENT.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR DUE TO CIGS AND LIGHT SNOW FOR MOST AREAS TONIGHT.
OCCASIONAL IFR IN SNOW IS POSSIBLE. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
FROM HUL NORTHWARD SATURDAY...BUT IFR CIGS FOR BGR AND BHB EARLY
SHOULD GIVE WAY TO VFR...OR AT WORST MVFR CIGS...BY LATE MORNING.
SHORT TERM:
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN SITES FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT DUE TO LINGERING LOW CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL TAKE HOLD FOR SUNDAY ACROSS ALL SITES AND PERSIST
INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO ADVISORIES EXPECTED...WINDS WILL GUST TO 20 KT
BEHIND A WARM FRONT THIS EVENING...BUT DECREASE AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE AREA AND BRINGS CHANGEABLE LIGHT WINDS.
SHORT TERM:
MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
IN THE WAKE OF A DEPARTING LOW. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW
LEVELS BUT SEAS ARE LIKELY TO BE NEAR 5 FEET OVER THE OUTER
WATERS. CONDITIONS WILL DIMINISH BELOW SCA LEVELS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...FOSTER/MCW
SHORT TERM...FITZSIMMONS
LONG TERM...HEWITT
AVIATION...FOSTER/MCW
MARINE...FOSTER/MCW/FITZSIMMONS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
1141 AM EST THU JAN 5 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY, SEASONABLE CONDITIONS INTO
FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MADE SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURE, CLOUDS AND WIND BASED ON
BLEND OF RECENT SURFACE AND SATELLITE DATA AND HRRR AND NAM MODEL
OUTPUT.
CONTINUE TO EXPECT STRATUS BANK TO THIN OR ERODE, WEST TO EAST
THIS AFTERNOON. THERE ARE HIGH CLOUDS ABOVE, BUT THESE SHOULD SOME
SUNSHINE DESPITE CONTINUED MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH NEAR NORMAL VALUES,
DESPITE REDUCED SUNSHINE EFFECTS OVER LINGERING SNOW PACK. LOWS
TONIGHT CAN BE WARMER THAN NORMAL DUE TO REDUCED RADIATIONAL
EFFECTS OF CLOUDS AND WIND, AND SOME WARMING ALOFT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FRIDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY AS THE UPPER FLOW FLATTENS AND A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS EASTWARD JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER WELL INTO 40S FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
A COLD FRONT WILL CREEP SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY
SATURDAY, WHICH MAY PRODUCE LIGHT SHOWERS DESPITE MEAGER MOISTURE
INFLUX. SO FAR HAVE MAINTAINED DRY FORECAST, BUT MORE RECENT NAM
AND SREF MODEL OUTPUT SUGGEST A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS, WHICH WILL
BE MORE FULLY EVALUATED WITH AFTERNOON UPDATE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL ON SATURDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RECENT HP GUIDANCE SHOWED PREFERENCE TOWARD BLEND OF RECENT EMF
AND GS ENSEMBLE/EC ENS AND GE`S/MODEL OUTPUT. THESE MODELS SHOWED
THE ZONAL NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE UPPER LEVEL POLAR JET STREAM HAVING
MORE INFLUENCE ON THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY THIS PERIOD, AS A SOUTHWEST
U.S. CUTOFF LOW MAY DEVELOP IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH. SO EXPECT
MODERATE TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT BOUTS OF PRECIPITATION THIS PERIOD.
FORE CASTED TEMPERATURES THIS PERIOD TO BE 4-8 DEGREES WARMER THAN
NORMAL, AS SUPPORTED BY BLEND OF RECENT GS MOS AND NAIFS MEDIAN
VALUES.
CURRENT MODEL DATA IS SHOWING VERY LITTLE CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WILL TAKE THIS WITH A
GRAIN OF SALT, AS THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE HAD DIFFICULTY
HANDLING SUCH A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN.
NAIFS AND EMF MODEL OUTPUT THEN SUGGEST THE JET STREAM PATTERN
BUCKLING LATE WEEK. THE RESULTING WEST COAST RIDGING AND GREAT
LAKES DRUGGING COULD LEAD TO COLDER TEMPERATURES BY THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PER RECENT SURFACE AND SATELLITE DATA, EXPECT CONTINUED SLOW
BREAK UP OF MVFR STRATUS, WEST TO EAST, THIS AFTERNOON. VFR ALTOCUMULUS
AND CIRRUS WILL REMAIN TONIGHT. ITS STILL POSSIBLE THAT MVFR
STRATUS CAN REDEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AS NAM MODEL PROFILES SHOW A
MOIST, INVERSION-CAPPED SURFACE LAYER REMAINING. IF SUCH CLOUDS
DEVELOP, THEY SHOULD LIFT TO VFR LEVELS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST, WITH SOME GUSTS TO NEAR
20 KTS INTO EVENING.
OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE MAY PROVIDE SHOWERS AND RESTRICTIONS LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1228 PM EST THU JAN 5 2012
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAFS
.SYNOPSIS...
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW NW FLOW ALF OVER
THE GRT LKS BTWN RDG OVER THE ROCKIES AND TROFFING IN THE E. MASS OF
LO CLD ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWV DIGGING SEWD THRU LWR MI LINGERS OVER
THE E HALF OF THE CWA TOWARD LLVL THERMAL TROF TO THE E...BUT
MARGINAL CHILL OF AIRMASS PER 00Z APX RAOB SHOWING INVRN BASE TEMP
OF -8C JUST BLO H85 IS TOO WARM TO SUPPORT LES. MORE SCT CLDS ARE
EVIDENT OVER THE WRN CWA. TO THE NW...HI PRES IS BLDG THRU NW
ONTARIO TOWARD THE CWA BEHIND COLD FNT MOVING SEWD ACRS ONTARIO AND
UNDER 12Z-24Z H3 RISES UP TO 100M OBSVD OVER SCNTRL CAN IN ADVANCE
OF ROCKIES RDG. BUT THERE IS PLENTY OF MID/HI CLD STRETCHING FM
SCNTRL CAN INTO NRN MN ASSOCIATED WITH WAD OVER A SHARP H85 WARM FNT
IN SCNTRL CAN THAT IS CONTRIBUTING TO THE HGT RISES. VERY WARM AIR
IS EVIDENT OVER THE HI PLAINS...WITH 00Z H85 TEMP AS HI AS 12C AT
GLASGOW MT. WELL UPSTREAM...A STRONGER SHRTWV IS MOVING ONSHORE OVER
THE PAC NW.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
EVEN THOUGH THE PASSAGE OF A SERIES OF SHRTWVS WL MAINTAIN A NW FLOW
ALF THRU THIS WEEKEND...A FAIRLY BENIGN WX PATTERN FOR JAN WL
PREVAIL WITH RELATIVELY MILD MARITIME POLAR PACIFIC AIRMASSES
DOMINATING.
TDAY...THE SFC HI BLDG THRU ONTARIO IS FCST TO SLIDE STEADILY TO THE
SE AND INTO FAR SW QUEBEC BY LATE AFTN. AS SHRTWV NOW MOVING ONSHORE
IN THE PAC NW FLATTENS THE ROCKIES RDG AND MOVES TO NEAR LK WINNIPEG
BY 00Z FRI...A SFC LO ORGANIZING OVER NRN ALBERTA THIS MRNG WILL
FOLLOW TO THAT AREA LATE IN THE DAY. ALTHOUGH THE LLVL NNE FLOW ON
THE SW FLANK OF THE HI PASSING TO THE NE WL MAINTAIN LO CLD AND
POSSIBLY SOME FLURRIES ESPECIALLY OVER THE NE HALF OF THE FA...
STEADILY VEERING FLOW TO THE S LATER IN THE DAY AHEAD OF INCOMING
WARM FNT ATTENDANT TO THE LK WINNIPEG LO SHOULD CAUSE THIS CLD TO
RETREAT. HOWEVER...THE GFS FCST H95-9 RH HINTS THIS CLD MAY BE MORE
RESILIENT. SFC OBS FM NW ONTARIO/ADJOINING MANITOBA SUPPORT THIS
MORE PESSIMISTIC FCST. SINCE THE DEEPER MSTR/MOST VIGOROUS DEEP LYR
QVECTOR CNVGC ASSOCIATED WITH THE ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS PROGGED TO
STAY TO THE NE...THE SYNOPTIC PCPN SHOULD HOLD MAINLY OVER THE NE
HALF OF LK SUP. EXPECT THE WARMEST DAYTIME TEMPS TO BE OVER THE FAR
W...WHERE MODEL FCST H100-85 THKNS IS FCST TO REACH NEAR 1320M AT
IWD WITH DOWNSLOPING SSW WIND. UPSTREAM HI TEMPS YDAY IN THE NRN
PLAINS FOR SIMILAR THKNS WERE ARND 40. GOING FCST HI TEMPS APPEAR ON
TRACK AND NEED LTL ADJUSTMENT.
TNGT...SHRTWV/SFC LO NEAR LK WINNIPEG IS PROGGED TO MOVE EWD AND TO
OVER ONTARIO JUST N OF LK SUP BY 12Z FRI. AS THE WARM FNT ADVANCES
WITH THE RETREAT OF COLD AIR TO THE E...EXPECT ANY LINGERING LO CHC
POPS OVER THE NE CWA IN THE EVNG TO PUSH INTO SE ONTARIO AND GIVE
WAY TO A PERIOD OF CLR-PCLDY SKIES WITH THE ARRIVAL OF WARMER/DRIER
AIR. COMBINATION OF STEADY WLY FLOW WITH H925 WINDS AS HI AS
30-40KTS UNDER SHARP PRES GRADIENT TO THE S OF LO CENTER AND INFLUX
OF MILD PACIFIC AIR WITH H100-85 THKNS HOLDING FM 1300 TO 1320M THRU
THE NGT INDICATES MIN TEMPS WL BE WELL ABV NORMAL. TENDED TOWARD THE
HIER END OF GUIDANCE FOR THIS FCST.
FRI...SHRTWV TRACKING ACRS ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC IS FCST TO DEEPEN UPR
TROF OVER THE GRT LKS. WITH SHARPENING CYC FLOW OF COLDER AND
MOISTER AIR UNDER THE FALLING HGTS...EXPECT QUITE A BIT OF LO CLD TO
DVLP...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS DOWNWIND OF THE LK IN SLOWLY VEERING FLOW
TO NW. ALTHOUGH THE AIRMASS IS INITIALLY TOO WARM FOR LES WITH H85
TEMPS AT 12Z FRI NO LOWER THAN -3/-4C...THESE TEMPS ARE FCST TO SINK
AS LO AS -9C OR SO BY LATE IN THE DAY OVER THE KEWEENAW. MODEL FCST
SDNGS INDICATE DEEPER MSTR WL ALSO REACH THE DGZ IN THE AFTN AT
LEAST OVER THE W...SO WENT WITH CHC POPS FOR LES THEN. BUT LACK OF
FCST OMEGA WITHIN THE DGZ SUGS ANY SN WL BE ON THE LGT SIDE.
CONSIDERED ADDING FZDZ OVER THE KEWEENAW IN THE MRNG IN AREAS WHERE
TEMPS ARE AOB 32...BUT STRONG WINDS THAT WL ENHANCE MIXING/MORE
INVERTED V SDNGS AS WELL AS INITIALLY HIER SFC DEWPT DEPRESSIONS PER
MOS GUIDANCE SUG THE BEST STRATEGY IS TO KEEP THIS OUT OF FCST ATTM.
THE HIEST MAX TEMPS WL OCCUR OVER THE SCNTRL WHERE STRONG WNW FLOW
DOWNSLOPES AND COLDER AIR IS LATER TO ARRIVE. TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO
FALL IN THE AFTN AS THE COLDER AIR MAKES MORE PROGRESS INTO THE CWA.
FRI NGT...WITH LINGERNING LLVL CYC NW FLOW AND H85 THERMAL TROF/
TEMPS SINKING TO ARND -12C...EXPECT LES CHANCES/PLENTY OF LO CLD TO
PERSIST. BUMPED GOING POPS UP TO HI CHC TO ACCOUNT FOR
CLIMATOLICALLY FAVORABLE PATTERN WITH MARGINAL THERMAL INSTABILITY
(LK WATER TEMPS ARND 3C). GIVEN THE CLD COVER AND STEADY NW FLOW
THRU THE NGT...EXPECT TEMPS TO BE WELL ABV NORMAL AND ON THE HI SIDE
OF GUIDANCE.
SAT/SAT NGT...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES...MODEL GUIDANCE
HINTS AT THE ARRIVAL OF ANOTHER SHRTWV DURING THIS TIME...WITH
SHARPENING OF LK ENHANCED TROFFING OVER THE NRN TIER. SO MAINTAINED
HI CHC POPS ON SAT WITH SOMEWHAT LOWER VALUES ON SAT NGT GIVEN TREND
TOWARD HGT RISES/WEAKENING TROF/DRYING ALF LATER SAT INTO SUN. TEMPS
WL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.
EXTENDED PERIOD...GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR WARMER
AIRMASS TO SLOWLY SEEP INTO THE UPR LKS BY TUE UNDER BLDG RDG...SO
TENDED TO RAISE ALLBLEND TEMPS A DEGREE OR 2 TO ACCOUNT FOR
CONFIDENCE IN THE ARRIVAL OF THIS WARMER PACIFIC AIR. RETURN TO
COLDER AIR AND SN STILL POSSIBLE FOR NEXT WED WITH 00Z ECMWF/GFS
SHOWING A DEEPENING TROF.
&&
.AVIATION /FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
THE MAIN STORY WITH THIS TAF ISSUANCE WILL BE STRENGTHENING WINDS
FROM MID EVENING ON. WHILE THE WINDS SHOULD PICK UP AND BE GUSTY AT
THE SFC AT IWD AND CMX...LLWS IS EXPECTED AT SAW. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING...WITH INCREASED
DEEP MOISTURE AND SNOW MOVING IN FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE /FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE FROM EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR TO
SOUTHWESTERN QUEBEC TODAY...AS LOW PRESSURE NEARS FROM CENTRAL
SASKATCHEWAN. THIS WILL RESULT IN WINDS NEARING GALES...WITH MAINLY
GALE FORCE GUSTS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY NEAR THE SOUTHERN
SHORELINES OF LS. EXPECT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO DEEPEN TO
NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR FRIDAY MORNING...BEFORE FILLING SLIGHTLY OVER
SOUTHWESTERN QUEBEC FRIDAY NIGHT. A WEAK LOW WILL CROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT...AHEAD OF RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FOR
SUNDAY. PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL DIMINISH FROM
MONDAY MORNING TO DAYBREAK TUESDAY...AS A LOW ORGANIZES OVER CENTRAL
CANADA.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KC
DISCUSSION...KC
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
728 AM EST THU JAN 5 2012
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 12Z TAFS
.SYNOPSIS...
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW NW FLOW ALF OVER
THE GRT LKS BTWN RDG OVER THE ROCKIES AND TROFFING IN THE E. MASS OF
LO CLD ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWV DIGGING SEWD THRU LWR MI LINGERS OVER
THE E HALF OF THE CWA TOWARD LLVL THERMAL TROF TO THE E...BUT
MARGINAL CHILL OF AIRMASS PER 00Z APX RAOB SHOWING INVRN BASE TEMP
OF -8C JUST BLO H85 IS TOO WARM TO SUPPORT LES. MORE SCT CLDS ARE
EVIDENT OVER THE WRN CWA. TO THE NW...HI PRES IS BLDG THRU NW
ONTARIO TOWARD THE CWA BEHIND COLD FNT MOVING SEWD ACRS ONTARIO AND
UNDER 12Z-24Z H3 RISES UP TO 100M OBSVD OVER SCNTRL CAN IN ADVANCE
OF ROCKIES RDG. BUT THERE IS PLENTY OF MID/HI CLD STRETCHING FM
SCNTRL CAN INTO NRN MN ASSOCIATED WITH WAD OVER A SHARP H85 WARM FNT
IN SCNTRL CAN THAT IS CONTRIBUTING TO THE HGT RISES. VERY WARM AIR
IS EVIDENT OVER THE HI PLAINS...WITH 00Z H85 TEMP AS HI AS 12C AT
GLASGOW MT. WELL UPSTREAM...A STRONGER SHRTWV IS MOVING ONSHORE OVER
THE PAC NW.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
EVEN THOUGH THE PASSAGE OF A SERIES OF SHRTWVS WL MAINTAIN A NW FLOW
ALF THRU THIS WEEKEND...A FAIRLY BENIGN WX PATTERN FOR JAN WL
PREVAIL WITH RELATIVELY MILD MARITIME POLAR PACIFIC AIRMASSES
DOMINATING.
TDAY...THE SFC HI BLDG THRU ONTARIO IS FCST TO SLIDE STEADILY TO THE
SE AND INTO FAR SW QUEBEC BY LATE AFTN. AS SHRTWV NOW MOVING ONSHORE
IN THE PAC NW FLATTENS THE ROCKIES RDG AND MOVES TO NEAR LK WINNIPEG
BY 00Z FRI...A SFC LO ORGANIZING OVER NRN ALBERTA THIS MRNG WILL
FOLLOW TO THAT AREA LATE IN THE DAY. ALTHOUGH THE LLVL NNE FLOW ON
THE SW FLANK OF THE HI PASSING TO THE NE WL MAINTAIN LO CLD AND
POSSIBLY SOME FLURRIES ESPECIALLY OVER THE NE HALF OF THE FA...
STEADILY VEERING FLOW TO THE S LATER IN THE DAY AHEAD OF INCOMING
WARM FNT ATTENDANT TO THE LK WINNIPEG LO SHOULD CAUSE THIS CLD TO
RETREAT. HOWEVER...THE GFS FCST H95-9 RH HINTS THIS CLD MAY BE MORE
RESILIENT. SFC OBS FM NW ONTARIO/ADJOINING MANITOBA SUPPORT THIS
MORE PESSIMISTIC FCST. SINCE THE DEEPER MSTR/MOST VIGOROUS DEEP LYR
QVECTOR CNVGC ASSOCIATED WITH THE ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS PROGGED TO
STAY TO THE NE...THE SYNOPTIC PCPN SHOULD HOLD MAINLY OVER THE NE
HALF OF LK SUP. EXPECT THE WARMEST DAYTIME TEMPS TO BE OVER THE FAR
W...WHERE MODEL FCST H100-85 THKNS IS FCST TO REACH NEAR 1320M AT
IWD WITH DOWNSLOPING SSW WIND. UPSTREAM HI TEMPS YDAY IN THE NRN
PLAINS FOR SIMILAR THKNS WERE ARND 40. GOING FCST HI TEMPS APPEAR ON
TRACK AND NEED LTL ADJUSTMENT.
TNGT...SHRTWV/SFC LO NEAR LK WINNIPEG IS PROGGED TO MOVE EWD AND TO
OVER ONTARIO JUST N OF LK SUP BY 12Z FRI. AS THE WARM FNT ADVANCES
WITH THE RETREAT OF COLD AIR TO THE E...EXPECT ANY LINGERING LO CHC
POPS OVER THE NE CWA IN THE EVNG TO PUSH INTO SE ONTARIO AND GIVE
WAY TO A PERIOD OF CLR-PCLDY SKIES WITH THE ARRIVAL OF WARMER/DRIER
AIR. COMBINATION OF STEADY WLY FLOW WITH H925 WINDS AS HI AS
30-40KTS UNDER SHARP PRES GRADIENT TO THE S OF LO CENTER AND INFLUX
OF MILD PACIFIC AIR WITH H100-85 THKNS HOLDING FM 1300 TO 1320M THRU
THE NGT INDICATES MIN TEMPS WL BE WELL ABV NORMAL. TENDED TOWARD THE
HIER END OF GUIDANCE FOR THIS FCST.
FRI...SHRTWV TRACKING ACRS ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC IS FCST TO DEEPEN UPR
TROF OVER THE GRT LKS. WITH SHARPENING CYC FLOW OF COLDER AND
MOISTER AIR UNDER THE FALLING HGTS...EXPECT QUITE A BIT OF LO CLD TO
DVLP...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS DOWNWIND OF THE LK IN SLOWLY VEERING FLOW
TO NW. ALTHOUGH THE AIRMASS IS INITIALLY TOO WARM FOR LES WITH H85
TEMPS AT 12Z FRI NO LOWER THAN -3/-4C...THESE TEMPS ARE FCST TO SINK
AS LO AS -9C OR SO BY LATE IN THE DAY OVER THE KEWEENAW. MODEL FCST
SDNGS INDICATE DEEPER MSTR WL ALSO REACH THE DGZ IN THE AFTN AT
LEAST OVER THE W...SO WENT WITH CHC POPS FOR LES THEN. BUT LACK OF
FCST OMEGA WITHIN THE DGZ SUGS ANY SN WL BE ON THE LGT SIDE.
CONSIDERED ADDING FZDZ OVER THE KEWEENAW IN THE MRNG IN AREAS WHERE
TEMPS ARE AOB 32...BUT STRONG WINDS THAT WL ENHANCE MIXING/MORE
INVERTED V SDNGS AS WELL AS INITIALLY HIER SFC DEWPT DEPRESSIONS PER
MOS GUIDANCE SUG THE BEST STRATEGY IS TO KEEP THIS OUT OF FCST ATTM.
THE HIEST MAX TEMPS WL OCCUR OVER THE SCNTRL WHERE STRONG WNW FLOW
DOWNSLOPES AND COLDER AIR IS LATER TO ARRIVE. TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO
FALL IN THE AFTN AS THE COLDER AIR MAKES MORE PROGRESS INTO THE CWA.
FRI NGT...WITH LINGERNING LLVL CYC NW FLOW AND H85 THERMAL TROF/
TEMPS SINKING TO ARND -12C...EXPECT LES CHANCES/PLENTY OF LO CLD TO
PERSIST. BUMPED GOING POPS UP TO HI CHC TO ACCOUNT FOR
CLIMATOLICALLY FAVORABLE PATTERN WITH MARGINAL THERMAL INSTABILITY
(LK WATER TEMPS ARND 3C). GIVEN THE CLD COVER AND STEADY NW FLOW
THRU THE NGT...EXPECT TEMPS TO BE WELL ABV NORMAL AND ON THE HI SIDE
OF GUIDANCE.
SAT/SAT NGT...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES...MODEL GUIDANCE
HINTS AT THE ARRIVAL OF ANOTHER SHRTWV DURING THIS TIME...WITH
SHARPENING OF LK ENHANCED TROFFING OVER THE NRN TIER. SO MAINTAINED
HI CHC POPS ON SAT WITH SOMEWHAT LOWER VALUES ON SAT NGT GIVEN TREND
TOWARD HGT RISES/WEAKENING TROF/DRYING ALF LATER SAT INTO SUN. TEMPS
WL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.
EXTENDED PERIOD...GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR WARMER
AIRMASS TO SLOWLY SEEP INTO THE UPR LKS BY TUE UNDER BLDG RDG...SO
TENDED TO RAISE ALLBLEND TEMPS A DEGREE OR 2 TO ACCOUNT FOR
CONFIDENCE IN THE ARRIVAL OF THIS WARMER PACIFIC AIR. RETURN TO
COLDER AIR AND SN STILL POSSIBLE FOR NEXT WED WITH 00Z ECMWF/GFS
SHOWING A DEEPENING TROF.
&&
.AVIATION /FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
CEIGS AND VIS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. THE SAME CAN NOT BE SAID FOR CMX AND SAW...WHICH
START OFF UNDER MVFR CONDITIONS. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEGINNING
TO SCOUR OUT FROM THE NORTHWEST...AND SHOULD COME BACK UP TO VFR
AROUND 14Z. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE LOWER CLOUDS COULD
STICK AROUND A BIT LONGER. THE MAIN STORY WILL BE STRENGTHENING
WINDS FROM MID EVENING ON. WHILE THE WINDS SHOULD PICK UP AND BE
GUSTY AT THE SFC AT IWD AND CMX...LLWS WAS ADDED AT SAW.
&&
.MARINE /FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE FROM EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR TO
SOUTHWESTERN QUEBEC TODAY...AS LOW PRESSURE NEARS FROM CENTRAL
SASKATCHEWAN. THIS WILL RESULT IN WINDS NEARING GALES...WITH MAINLY
GALE FORCE GUSTS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY NEAR THE SOUTHERN
SHORELINES OF LS. EXPECT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO DEEPEN TO
NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR FRIDAY MORNING...BEFORE FILLING SLIGHTLY OVER
SOUTHWESTERN QUEBEC FRIDAY NIGHT. A WEAK LOW WILL CROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT...AHEAD OF RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FOR
SUNDAY. PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL DIMINISH FROM
MONDAY MORNING TO DAYBREAK TUESDAY...AS A LOW ORGANIZES OVER CENTRAL
CANADA.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KC
DISCUSSION...KC
AVIATION...KF
MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
414 AM EST THU JAN 5 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW NW FLOW ALF OVER
THE GRT LKS BTWN RDG OVER THE ROCKIES AND TROFFING IN THE E. MASS OF
LO CLD ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWV DIGGING SEWD THRU LWR MI LINGERS OVER
THE E HALF OF THE CWA TOWARD LLVL THERMAL TROF TO THE E...BUT
MARGINAL CHILL OF AIRMASS PER 00Z APX RAOB SHOWING INVRN BASE TEMP
OF -8C JUST BLO H85 IS TOO WARM TO SUPPORT LES. MORE SCT CLDS ARE
EVIDENT OVER THE WRN CWA. TO THE NW...HI PRES IS BLDG THRU NW
ONTARIO TOWARD THE CWA BEHIND COLD FNT MOVING SEWD ACRS ONTARIO AND
UNDER 12Z-24Z H3 RISES UP TO 100M OBSVD OVER SCNTRL CAN IN ADVANCE
OF ROCKIES RDG. BUT THERE IS PLENTY OF MID/HI CLD STRETCHING FM
SCNTRL CAN INTO NRN MN ASSOCIATED WITH WAD OVER A SHARP H85 WARM FNT
IN SCNTRL CAN THAT IS CONTRIBUTING TO THE HGT RISES. VERY WARM AIR
IS EVIDENT OVER THE HI PLAINS...WITH 00Z H85 TEMP AS HI AS 12C AT
GLASGOW MT. WELL UPSTREAM...A STRONGER SHRTWV IS MOVING ONSHORE OVER
THE PAC NW.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
EVEN THOUGH THE PASSAGE OF A SERIES OF SHRTWVS WL MAINTAIN A NW FLOW
ALF THRU THIS WEEKEND...A FAIRLY BENIGN WX PATTERN FOR JAN WL
PREVAIL WITH RELATIVELY MILD MARITIME POLAR PACIFIC AIRMASSES
DOMINATING.
TDAY...THE SFC HI BLDG THRU ONTARIO IS FCST TO SLIDE STEADILY TO THE
SE AND INTO FAR SW QUEBEC BY LATE AFTN. AS SHRTWV NOW MOVING ONSHORE
IN THE PAC NW FLATTENS THE ROCKIES RDG AND MOVES TO NEAR LK WINNIPEG
BY 00Z FRI...A SFC LO ORGANIZING OVER NRN ALBERTA THIS MRNG WILL
FOLLOW TO THAT AREA LATE IN THE DAY. ALTHOUGH THE LLVL NNE FLOW ON
THE SW FLANK OF THE HI PASSING TO THE NE WL MAINTAIN LO CLD AND
POSSIBLY SOME FLURRIES ESPECIALLY OVER THE NE HALF OF THE FA...
STEADILY VEERING FLOW TO THE S LATER IN THE DAY AHEAD OF INCOMING
WARM FNT ATTENDANT TO THE LK WINNIPEG LO SHOULD CAUSE THIS CLD TO
RETREAT. HOWEVER...THE GFS FCST H95-9 RH HINTS THIS CLD MAY BE MORE
RESILIENT. SFC OBS FM NW ONTARIO/ADJOINING MANITOBA SUPPORT THIS
MORE PESSIMISTIC FCST. SINCE THE DEEPER MSTR/MOST VIGOROUS DEEP LYR
QVECTOR CNVGC ASSOCIATED WITH THE ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS PROGGED TO
STAY TO THE NE...THE SYNOPTIC PCPN SHOULD HOLD MAINLY OVER THE NE
HALF OF LK SUP. EXPECT THE WARMEST DAYTIME TEMPS TO BE OVER THE FAR
W...WHERE MODEL FCST H100-85 THKNS IS FCST TO REACH NEAR 1320M AT
IWD WITH DOWNSLOPING SSW WIND. UPSTREAM HI TEMPS YDAY IN THE NRN
PLAINS FOR SIMILAR THKNS WERE ARND 40. GOING FCST HI TEMPS APPEAR ON
TRACK AND NEED LTL ADJUSTMENT.
TNGT...SHRTWV/SFC LO NEAR LK WINNIPEG IS PROGGED TO MOVE EWD AND TO
OVER ONTARIO JUST N OF LK SUP BY 12Z FRI. AS THE WARM FNT ADVANCES
WITH THE RETREAT OF COLD AIR TO THE E...EXPECT ANY LINGERING LO CHC
POPS OVER THE NE CWA IN THE EVNG TO PUSH INTO SE ONTARIO AND GIVE
WAY TO A PERIOD OF CLR-PCLDY SKIES WITH THE ARRIVAL OF WARMER/DRIER
AIR. COMBINATION OF STEADY WLY FLOW WITH H925 WINDS AS HI AS
30-40KTS UNDER SHARP PRES GRADIENT TO THE S OF LO CENTER AND INFLUX
OF MILD PACIFIC AIR WITH H100-85 THKNS HOLDING FM 1300 TO 1320M THRU
THE NGT INDICATES MIN TEMPS WL BE WELL ABV NORMAL. TENDED TOWARD THE
HIER END OF GUIDANCE FOR THIS FCST.
FRI...SHRTWV TRACKING ACRS ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC IS FCST TO DEEPEN UPR
TROF OVER THE GRT LKS. WITH SHARPENING CYC FLOW OF COLDER AND
MOISTER AIR UNDER THE FALLING HGTS...EXPECT QUITE A BIT OF LO CLD TO
DVLP...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS DOWNWIND OF THE LK IN SLOWLY VEERING FLOW
TO NW. ALTHOUGH THE AIRMASS IS INITIALLY TOO WARM FOR LES WITH H85
TEMPS AT 12Z FRI NO LOWER THAN -3/-4C...THESE TEMPS ARE FCST TO SINK
AS LO AS -9C OR SO BY LATE IN THE DAY OVER THE KEWEENAW. MODEL FCST
SDNGS INDICATE DEEPER MSTR WL ALSO REACH THE DGZ IN THE AFTN AT
LEAST OVER THE W...SO WENT WITH CHC POPS FOR LES THEN. BUT LACK OF
FCST OMEGA WITHIN THE DGZ SUGS ANY SN WL BE ON THE LGT SIDE.
CONSIDERED ADDING FZDZ OVER THE KEWEENAW IN THE MRNG IN AREAS WHERE
TEMPS ARE AOB 32...BUT STRONG WINDS THAT WL ENHANCE MIXING/MORE
INVERTED V SDNGS AS WELL AS INITIALLY HIER SFC DEWPT DEPRESSIONS PER
MOS GUIDANCE SUG THE BEST STRATEGY IS TO KEEP THIS OUT OF FCST ATTM.
THE HIEST MAX TEMPS WL OCCUR OVER THE SCNTRL WHERE STRONG WNW FLOW
DOWNSLOPES AND COLDER AIR IS LATER TO ARRIVE. TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO
FALL IN THE AFTN AS THE COLDER AIR MAKES MORE PROGRESS INTO THE CWA.
FRI NGT...WITH LINGERNING LLVL CYC NW FLOW AND H85 THERMAL TROF/
TEMPS SINKING TO ARND -12C...EXPECT LES CHANCES/PLENTY OF LO CLD TO
PERSIST. BUMPED GOING POPS UP TO HI CHC TO ACCOUNT FOR
CLIMATOLICALLY FAVORABLE PATTERN WITH MARGINAL THERMAL INSTABILITY
(LK WATER TEMPS ARND 3C). GIVEN THE CLD COVER AND STEADY NW FLOW
THRU THE NGT...EXPECT TEMPS TO BE WELL ABV NORMAL AND ON THE HI SIDE
OF GUIDANCE.
SAT/SAT NGT...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES...MODEL GUIDANCE
HINTS AT THE ARRIVAL OF ANOTHER SHRTWV DURING THIS TIME...WITH
SHARPENING OF LK ENHANCED TROFFING OVER THE NRN TIER. SO MAINTAINED
HI CHC POPS ON SAT WITH SOMEWHAT LOWER VALUES ON SAT NGT GIVEN TREND
TOWARD HGT RISES/WEAKENING TROF/DRYING ALF LATER SAT INTO SUN. TEMPS
WL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.
EXTENDED PERIOD...GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR WARMER
AIRMASS TO SLOWLY SEEP INTO THE UPR LKS BY TUE UNDER BLDG RDG...SO
TENDED TO RAISE ALLBLEND TEMPS A DEGREE OR 2 TO ACCOUNT FOR
CONFIDENCE IN THE ARRIVAL OF THIS WARMER PACIFIC AIR. RETURN TO
COLDER AIR AND SN STILL POSSIBLE FOR NEXT WED WITH 00Z ECMWF/GFS
SHOWING A DEEPENING TROF.
&&
.AVIATION /FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THRU THE END OF THE FCST PERIOD AT
KIWD. WILL GET A BIT GUSTY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
PERSISTENT W TO NW UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN MVFR CIGS MOVING
BACK INTO KCMX OVERNIGHT. AS WINDS BECOME SSE THU MORNING...EXPECT
LOW CLOUDS TO EXIT WITH RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS.
AT KSAW...WHEN WINDS BECOME CALM OVERNIGHT...THERE WILL BE SOME
GROUND FOG AS EVIDENCED EARLIER AT KSAW AND ALSO AT THE OFFICE. WHEN
THE WINDS KICK UP...THE GROUND FOG MIXES OUT. AS WINDS DIE DOWN LATE
TONIGHT...FOG WILL DEVELOP AND VLIFR CONDITIONS WILL SET IN. AS
WINDS BECOME SE IN THE MID MORNING...THE FOG WILL MIX OUT AND VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE /FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE FROM EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR TO
SOUTHWESTERN QUEBEC TODAY...AS LOW PRESSURE NEARS FROM CENTRAL
SASKATCHEWAN. THIS WILL RESULT IN WINDS NEARING GALES...WITH MAINLY
GALE FORCE GUSTS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY NEAR THE SOUTHERN
SHORELINES OF LS. EXPECT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO DEEPEN TO
NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR FRIDAY MORNING...BEFORE FILLING SLIGHTLY OVER
SOUTHWESTERN QUEBEC FRIDAY NIGHT. A WEAK LOW WILL CROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT...AHEAD OF RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FOR
SUNDAY. PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL DIMINISH FROM
MONDAY MORNING TO DAYBREAK TUESDAY...AS A LOW ORGANIZES OVER CENTRAL
CANADA.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KC
DISCUSSION...KC
AVIATION...07
MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
1245 AM EST THU JAN 5 2012
.SYNOPSIS.../ISSUED AT 425 PM/
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING...MAINTAINING OVERALL DRY WEATHER. A DEEP LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES...
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. BLUSTERY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PROPEL
TEMPERATURES TO 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY. THE TRAILING
COLD FRONT WILL RETURN TEMPERATURES TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS THIS
WEEKEND...WITH SOME MINOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW.
HALBLAUB
&&
.SHORT TERM.../ISSUED AT 1110 PM/...TONIGHT
...ANOTHER NGT OF EXTENSIVE CLDS AND MUCH ABOVE NORMAL LOW TEMPS...
SEQUENCE OF RUC ANALYSES SHOW WEAK/SUBTLE PV ANOMALY ON THE
TROPOPAUSE AROUND 355 MB SLIDING SE THRU THE FCST AREA...IN THE EXIT
REGION OF A 120 KT JET STREAK. HGTS ARE BUILDING IN NW FLOW.
MID-HIGH CLDS IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE ARE DEPARTING TO THE S...
REVEALING WIDESPREAD MVFR STRATUS OVER NRN MI. WE`LL CONTINUE WITH
PERSISTENCE AND MAINTAIN OVC SKIES THE REST OF THE NGT. THE
EXCEPTION IS BENZIE/MANISTEE COUNTIES. WE`VE SEEN CLEARING OVER
LAKE MI HEAD INLAND...WHERE LAKE INSTABILITY IS INSUFFICIENT FOR
LAKE CLDS.
EXTENSIVE LOW CLDS ARE NOT PERMITTING TEMPS TO FALL MUCH. SO LOW
TEMPS WERE RAISED ABOUT 3F...DERIVED FROM MINIMUM 3-HOURLY TEMPS
FROM 12Z NAM MOS. BENZIE/MANISTEE WERE LOWERED WHERE PERIODS OF
CLR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR SOME RADIATING.
SATL SHOWS NEXT BATCH OF MID-HIGH CLDS SPILLING OVER UPSTREAM
RIDGE WITH ITS LEADING EDGE NOW OVER WI. SOME OF THIS WILL AFFECT
BENZIE/MANISTEE OVERNGT.
OTHER THAN SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUDS...NO OTHER SUBSTANTIAL
CHANGES TO THE FCST.
LOW PRES WAS MOVING THRU NRN QUEBEC. ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL
SLIP INTO THE STRAITS AND LAKE HURON AROUND DAWN AS A BACKDOOR
FRONT. CONVERGENCE WILL LIKELY ACT TO MAINTAIN LOW CLOUDS.
CLIMATE: TODAY WAS THE 3RD DAY IN A ROW OF HIGH TEMPS AT OR BELOW
FRZG. THIS IS ONLY THE 2ND TIME THIS HAS OCCURRED SINCE DEC 11TH.
THE LONGEST STRETCH SO FAR THESE SEASON WAS DEC 5TH-10TH. THIS
CURRENT STRETCH ENDS TODAY AS ANOTHER SURGE OF ABOVE-MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS /TYPICAL OF THIS WINTER/ BEGINS TOMORROW. WE JUST
CANNOT SUSTAIN ANY PROLONGED STRETCHES OF SUB-FRZG COLD.
HALBLAUB
&&
.LONG TERM.../ISSUED AT 425 PM/...THURSDAY AND BEYOND
THURSDAY...A MILDER PUSH OF AIR WILL MOVE UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST DUE
TO STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION. IN ADDITION...A WEAK ALBERTA CLIPPER
WILL MOVE BY TO OUR NORTH. MODEL SOUNDINGS/CROSS SECTIONS SHOW LOTS
OF DRY MID LEVEL AIR...SO IT IS LIKELY GOING TO BE TOUGH TO GENERATE
ANY PRECIPITATION. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE WITH THE LOW CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST FOR LIGHT SNOW. AS FAR AS CLOUD COVER
GOES...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED TO PREVAIL...EXPECT BECOMING
PARTLY CLOUDY SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON (WHEN 925 MB RH DROPS OFF
TO AROUND 40 PERCENT). MILDER WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S
NORTHEAST TO AROUND 40 SOUTHWEST.
SULLIVAN
EXTENDED FORECAST SYNOPTIC PATTERN...A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
TO SWING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WITHIN OVERALL AVERAGED NW FLOW
REGIME ALOFT. NO GULF CONNECTION WITH ANY OF THE SYSTEMS...AND NO
STRONG LOW PRESSURE THROUGH TUESDAY TO BRING ANYTHING CONSIDERED
HAZARDOUS. A MILD FRIDAY WILL GET REPLACED BY A BRIEF SHOT OF COLDER
AIR OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT HIGHS STILL AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE JANUARY
NORMALS. TEMPERATURES RISE AGAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BEFORE A
POSSIBLE ABRUPT SHIFT BACK TOP WINTER. MORE ON THAT BELOW.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE NORTH
WOODS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE GFS PLAYING CATCH UP TO THE ECMWF IDEA
OF HOLDING THE SYSTEM COLD FRONT BACK TO THE NW UNTIL FRIDAY. ECMWF
STILL A BIT SLOWER AND MAKING IT A MILDER DAY FRIDAY. THAT SAID...A
CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW MAY HANG ON IN THE EVENING WITHIN FGEN REGION
ON WARM FRONT. NO REAL CHANGE HERE. MOISTURE DOES INCREASE AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...BUT FOR THE MOST PART ITS ABOVE 650MB...SO
NO CHANCE OF PRECIP HITTING GROUND THERE. THE COLDER AIR DOES FILL
IN LATER IN THE DAY...WITH THE FIRST CHANCE FOR LIGHT LAKE EFFECT
SNOWS DEVELOPING AROUND WHITEFISH BAY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS CHANCE
CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND MORE SO INTO THE WEEKEND AS A
SECONDARY SHOT OF COLDER AIR ARRIVES. THIS LOOS TO MORE DEFINITELY
KICK THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UP PAST THE -10C ISOTHERM FOR ICE
INTRODUCTION. COULD MAYBE SEE AN INCH IN SOME SPOTS...MAINLY
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT CERTAINLY NO BARN BURNER OF A SNOW
SCENARIO. HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES SUNDAY NIGHT...PUTTING AN END TO ANY
SNOWS BY MONDAY MORNING. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE 40S IN NRN
LOWER AND UPPER 30S...FALLING BACK INTO THE 30S SATURDAY WITH UPPER
20S/AROUND 30F SUNDAY.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...INCREASING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS AND LOW LEVEL
WARMING ENSUES WITH NO LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL. MOISTURE THAT STREAMS
IN WILL ALL BE MID AND UPPER LEVEL WITH NO CHANCE OF SYNOPTIC
PRECIPITATION EITHER. HIGHS WILL BE MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH
READINGS IN THE 30S.
SNEAK PEEK AT WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK...THERE IS A
DECENT CONSENSUS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AHEAD OF
NRN STREAM UPPER TROUGH THAT MAY PHASE IN SOME DEGREE WITH A SRN
STREAM SYSTEM. BITTERLY COLD AIR GRADUALLY SETTLES IN BY FRIDAY WITH
A PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME.
AMOUNTS WOULD BE RIDICULOUS TO ASSESS AT THIS POINT...BUT A REAL
TASTE OF A HARSHER WINTER COULD BE ON TAP.
SMD
&&
.MARINE.../ISSUED AT 1110 PM/
WINDS ARE GUSTING TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ACROSS WHITEFISH BAY...AND
PARTS OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF NE LOWER MI. IN FACT...WIND DIR HAS
BECOME FAVORABLE FOR COASTAL CONVERGENCE AND PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT HAD
A PEAK G39 KTS LAST HR. THESE GUSTS WILL FALL THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH
A LESSER PRESSURE GRADIENT. NO ISSUES FORESEEN UNTIL THURSDAY-FRIDAY
WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT...THEN COLD FRONT FOR
A HANDFUL OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS AND POSSIBLE WAVES.
SMD/JH
&&
.AVIATION.../ISSUED AT 1245 AM/...VALID FOR 06Z TAFS
REST OF TNGT: UNRESTRICTED VSBYS AND 2500-3000 FT MVFR CIGS ALL
TERMINALS EXCEPT MBL. THE EDGE OF OVC IS NEAR TVC. INCLUDED TEMPO
FOR A PERIOD OF VFR SCT 2500. WINDS GENERALLY W-NW AROUND 5 KTS
TURNS CALM OR LGT AND VARIABLE.
THU: UNRESTRICTED VSBYS WITH MVFR CIGS LIFTING TO 2500-3000 AND
SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOW-END VFR 3500 FT CIGS. LOW CLOUDS COULD END
ALTOGETHER...REVEALING MID-HIGH LEVEL CIGS. LGT AND VARIABLE BECOME
S 5-10 KTS AFTER 17Z.
THU NGT THRU 06Z: WAA STRENGTHENS LOW-LEVEL INVERSION. THE 00Z/5
NAM INDICATES LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING BELOW INVERSION...WITH POSSIBLE
DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR STRATUS. HOWEVER...THIS IS LOW CONFIDENCE AND
WE`VE SEEN SIMILAR SITUATIONS LAST MONTH IN WHICH SKY WAS VFR WITH
PATCHY CIRRUS/ALTOCU. LLWS WILL DEVELOP AT THE BASE OF THE
INVERSION.
CONFIDENCE HIGH ON WIND.
CONFIDENCE HIGH ON VSBYS.
CONFIDENCE AVERAGE ON CIGS.
CONFIDENCE BELOW AVERAGE ON TIMING/OCCURRENCE OF VFR PERIODS.
CONFIDENCE HIGH ON LLWS.
HALBLAUB
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LHZ347-348.
LM...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LSZ321.
&&
$$
WFO APX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 06Z TAFS
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1112 PM EST WED JAN 4 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A WRN RIDGE/ERN TROF
PATTERN OVER THE CONUS. IN THE NW FLOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES...ONE
SHORTWAVE HAS DROPPED SE OF THE AREA WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT NOW
INTO LWR MI. BEHIND THE FRONT...LOWER CLOUDS DEVELOPED INTO THE W
AND PORTIONS OF THE N AND E TODAY...BUT APPARENTLY NO PCPN HAS
OCCURRED. RECENTLY...THE LOWER CLOUDS APPEAR TO BE SCATTERING OUT OF
THE W. NEXT SHORTWAVE OF INTEREST IS APPROACHING BRITISH COLUMBIA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND THU/...
A QUIET NIGHT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. SMALL BUBBLE OF HIGH PRES WILL
SETTLE SE TO A POSITION JUST N OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY SUNRISE THU.
850MB TEMPS HIGHER THAN -10C WILL BE TOO WARM TO SUPPPORT LES.
HOWEVER...THE REGIONAL GEM/ECMWF INDICATE 850MB TEMPS SLIPPING
TOWARD -12C OVER FAR ERN LAKE SUPERIOR OVERNIGHT. IF SO...THERE
COULD BE SOME FLURRIES LATE OVER THE ERN FCST AREA AS LOW-LEVEL
WINDS VEER MORE NORTHERLY. TO THE W...WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO
CALM...AND IT APPEARS THERE MAY NOT BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUD
COVER FOR A PORTION OF THE NIGHT. HAVE THUS FAVORED THE LOWER SIDE
OF GUIDANCE (TEMPS FALLING TOWARD 10F) AS THERE SHOULD BE AN
OPPORTUNITY FOR A PERIOD OF DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING.
SHORTWAVE APPROACHING BRITISH COLUMBIA MOVES TO SCNTRL CANADA THU.
AHEAD OF FEATURE...STRONG WAA PATTERN DEVELOPS INTO THE UPPER
LAKES...AND MODELS DEPICT A SHARPENING 850MB WARM FRONT PUSHING INTO
THE AREA. WITH FRONT SHARPENING AS IT SHIFTS E...ISENTROPIC ASCENT
PER 290/295K SFCS BECOMES STRONGER TO THE E OF THE FCST AREA. SO...
FOR NOW...RETAINED SLIGHT CHC POPS ONLY ACROSS THE KEWEENAW AND E OF
MUNISING TO MANISTIQUE WITH HIGHER POPS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. IT WILL
BE A WARM DAY FOR JAN STANDARDS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE W WHERE
GUIDANCE VALUES NEARING 40F LOOK REASONABLE GIVEN THE WARMTH
SPREADING OUT ACROSS THE DAKOTAS THIS AFTN. TEMPS SHOULD TOP OUT
AROUND 30F/LWR 30S OVER THE E.
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY/...
TRANSITION FM NW FLOW ALOFT TO MORE ZONAL FLOW BY FRIDAY ALLOWS LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH TO STREAK ACROSS MANITOBA/ONTARIO THURSDAY EVENING.
WARM FRONT BRIEFLY WILL PUSH ACROSS UPR MI...BUT SINCE CYCLONIC SIDE
OF JET AND H85-H7 FRONTOGENESIS STAY OVR ONTARIO...EXPECT MAINLY DRY
WX OVR CWA THURSDAY NIGHT. AS SFC LOW MOVES TOWARD SOUTHERN QUEBEC
ON FRIDAY MORNING...A SFC TROUGH SHOULD WORK ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN.
GFS AND NAM SHOW INCREASING MOISTURE BLO H9...MAINLY OVR THE WEST
HALF OF THE CWA...BUT NOT A WHOLE LOT OF UVM IN THAT MOIST LAYER.
WINDS COULD SUPPORT ADDITIONAL UPSLOPE LIFT OVR HIGHER TERRAIN OF
WEST AND NORTHWEST CWA...BUT SINCE TEMPS IN MOIST LAYER ARE MUCH
WARMER THAN -8C THE CHANCE OF ICE WITHIN THE CLOUD IS SLIM. PERHAPS
THERE COULD BE SOME DRIZZLE...BUT SFC DWPNT DEPRESSIONS LOOK TOO
HIGH TO SUPPORT PUTTING THAT IN FCST. WILL RUN WITH A MAINLY CLOUDY
BUT DRY FCST FOR NOW. AS PREVIOUS SHIFT DID...WENT WITH NON-DIURNAL
TEMP TREND THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. READINGS ON FRIDAY MOST AREAS
WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING...THOUGH TEMPS IN THE WEST COULD BE TEMPERED
BY THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER. BETTER PUSH OF COOLER AIR AT H85 OF
AROUND -10C ARRIVES FRIDAY NIGHT. COLD AIR ADVECTION AND DEEPENING
MOISTURE/CONVERGENCE THROUGH H85 SHOULD ALLOW FOR LGT SNOW TO
DEVELOP...HELPED ALONG BY LAKE SUPERIOR SOMEWHAT. LOW CHANCE POPS
OVER NORTHERN HALF OF CWA SEEM ON TRACK...HIGHEST IN AREAS FAVORED
BY NW WINDS. REGIME FOR LGT LK EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS LINGERS THROUGH
MUCH OF SATURDAY.
DAYS 4-7...SPLIT FLOW IS FCST TO RETURN IN UPPER LEVELS BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS UPR LOW DEVELOPS OVER SW CONUS WHILE NORTHERN STREAM
BECOMES MORE ZONAL. BY MID-LATE NEXT WEEK THOUGH EXTENDED MODELS AND
ENSEMBLES INDICATE DEEPER TROUGHING/COLDER AIRMASS WILL BEGIN TO
AFFECT MIDDLE CONUS...INCLUDING THE GREAT LAKES.
INITIALLY...ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT SLIDING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
LEADS TO CHANCES FOR MORE LGT LK EFFECT INTO SUNDAY. BLYR WINDS
START OUT NNW SATURDAY EVENING THEN BACK MORE WNW BY SUNDAY.
GFS/ECMWF BOTH INDICATE SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO SUPPORT LK
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. FCST SOUNDINGS FM GFS INDICATE MAJORITY OF
MOISTURE STAYS BLO DGZ WHICH KEEPS RATIOS ON THE LOWER SIDE OF 20:1.
LGT ACCUMS POSSIBLE BUT SHOULD NOT BE TOO MUCH SNOW GIVEN MARGINAL
OVERWATER INSTABILITY. ZONAL FLOW AND WARM AIR ADVECTIONS TAKES HOLD
BY MONDAY. MID CLOUDS MAKE APPEARANCE GIVEN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION
AND SFC LOW SLIDING BY ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO. WEAK FRONT TIED TO
LOW FCST TO MOVE ACROSS UPR LAKES LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. NOT
ENOUGH MOISTURE TO JUSTIFY MUCH PRECIPITATION THOUGH. IF THERE IS
MUCH PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE TO CONSIDER POSSIBILITY OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION AS H85 TEMPS SURGE WELL ABOVE ZERO AHEAD OF PRIMARY
COLD FRONT ARRIVING LATER WEDNESDAY. SOUNDINGS FM GFS DO INDICATE
THAT EVAPORATIVE COOLING WOULD BRING WET BULB TEMP AOB ZERO THROUGH
LOWEST 5KFT. FOR NOW...TOUGH TO GET TOO CARRIED AWAY FM FINE DETAILS
SO INCLUDED MENTION OF BROADBRUSHED MENTION OF RAIN/SNOW FOR PTYPE
MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE
TUESDAY NIGHT. BASED ON SFC TEMPS BLO FREEZING...CAN NOT RULE OUT
FREEZING RAIN EITHER. THOUGH AS WE GET CLOSER TO THIS TIME FRAME
SUSPECT SFC TEMPS FM MODELS MAY TREND WARMER...ESPECIALLY OUT AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT.
SOME AGREEMENT FM THE GFS/ECMWF THAT LARGER SCALE SYSTEM MAY
AFFECT UPR LAKES BY NEXT WEDNESDAY IN ADVANCE OF CHANGE TO COOLER
WEATHER PATTERN. PTYPE WOULD BE MAINLY SNOW BASED ON COOLING H85
TEMPS. MAIN QUESTION IS HOW MUCH PHASING OCCURS BTWN NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH AT THAT TIME AND THE SOUTHERN STREAM
WAVE SLIDING FM SW CONUS INTO SOUTHERN PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY OHIO
VALLEY. RECENT RUN OF THE ECMWF WAS MOST EMPHATIC WITH PHASING WHILE
PREVIOUS ECMWF RUNS AND RUNS OF THE GFS WERE MORE SEPARATE. EVEN
SO...00Z GFS WOULD HAVE WIDESPREAD SNOW ACROSS UPR LAKES ON
WEDNESDAY DUE TO INCREASING UPR JET DIVERGENCE/MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH. 12Z GFS
TRENDED WEAKER WITH THIS LEAD WAVE OF SNOW FOR WEDNESDAY THOUGH. 12Z
ECMWF HAS ALSO TRENDED MORE SEPARATE WITH BOTH STREAMS. SO PROBABLY
WILL BE AT LEAST SOME LIGHT SNOW AROUND ON WEDNESDAY WITH STRONG
COLD FRONT COMING THROUGH LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY LEADING TO
BLO NORMAL TEMPS AND LAKE EFFECT SNOWS FOR THE LATER PORTION OF NEXT
WEEK FOR MAINLY NORTHWEST WIND SNOW BELTS.
&&
.AVIATION /FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THRU THE END OF THE FCST PERIOD AT
KIWD. WILL GET A BIT GUSTY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
PERSISTENT W TO NW UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN MVFR CIGS MOVING
BACK INTO KCMX OVERNIGHT. AS WINDS BECOME SSE THU MORNING...EXPECT
LOW CLOUDS TO EXIT WITH RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS.
AT KSAW...WHEN WINDS BECOME CALM OVERNIGHT...THERE WILL BE SOME
GROUND FOG AS EVIDENCED EARLIER AT KSAW AND ALSO AT THE OFFICE. WHEN
THE WINDS KICK UP...THE GROUND FOG MIXES OUT. AS WINDS DIE DOWN LATE
TONIGHT...FOG WILL DEVELOP AND VLIFR CONDITIONS WILL SET IN. AS
WINDS BECOME SE IN THE MID MORNING...THE FOG WILL MIX OUT AND VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE /FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE/...
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO UNDER 20KT FROM W TO E TONIGHT INTO THU
MORNING AS SMALL AREA OF SFC HIGH PRES SETTLES SE TO JUST N OF LAKE
SUPERIOR BY MORNING. LIGHTER WINDS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL QUICKLY RAMP UP TO 20-30KT IN THE AFTN DUE TO HEALTHY
PRES FALLS SHIFTING E INTO NRN ONTARIO AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRES
AREA MOVING E ACROSS SCNTRL CANADA. MAGNITUDE OF PRES FALLS SUGGESTS
A SHORT PERIOD OF GALES MAY OCCUR THU EVENING. SINCE MODERATING
AIRMASS/INCREASING STABILITY WILL WORK TO LIMIT STRONGER WINDS...
HAVE OPTED TO HOLD OFF FROM ISSUING A GALE WATCH AT THIS POINT.
20-30KT WINDS WILL LINGER INTO FRI AS THE LOW PRES AREA TRACKS E
JUST TO THE N OF LAKE SUPERIOR. LIGHTER WINDS WILL RETURN FOR
SAT/SUN AS THE PRES GRADIENT SLACKENS WITH THE APPROACH OF HIGH PRES.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ROLFSON
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...07
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
1110 PM EST WED JAN 4 2012
.SYNOPSIS.../ISSUED AT 425 PM/
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING...MAINTAINING OVERALL DRY WEATHER. A DEEP LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES...
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. BLUSTERY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PROPEL
TEMPERATURES TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY. THE TRAILING COLD
FRONT WILL RETURN TEMPERATURES TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS THIS
WEEKEND...WITH SOME MINOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW.
HALBLAUB
&&
.SHORT TERM.../ISSUED AT 1110 PM/...TONIGHT
...ANOTHER NGT OF EXTENSIVE CLDS AND MUCH ABOVE NORMAL LOW TEMPS...
SEQUENCE OF RUC ANALYSES SHOW WEAK/SUBTLE PV ANOMALY ON THE
TROPOPAUSE AROUND 355 MB SLIDING SE THRU THE FCST AREA...IN THE EXIT
REGION OF A 120 KT JET STREAK. HGTS ARE BUILDING IN NW FLOW.
MID-HIGH CLDS IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE ARE DEPARTING TO THE S...
REVEALING WIDESPREAD MVFR STRATUS OVER NRN MI. WE`LL CONTINUE WITH
PERSISTENCE AND MAINTAIN OVC SKIES THE REST OF THE NGT. THE
EXCEPTION IS BENZIE/MANISTEE COUNTIES. WE`VE SEEN CLEARING OVER
LAKE MI HEAD INLAND...WHERE LAKE INSTABILITY IS INSUFFICIENT FOR
LAKE CLDS.
EXTENSIVE LOW CLDS ARE NOT PERMITTING TEMPS TO FALL MUCH. SO LOW
TEMPS WERE RAISED ABOUT 3F...DERIVED FROM MINIMUM 3-HOURLY TEMPS
FROM 12Z NAM MOS. BENZIE/MANISTEE WERE LOWERED WHERE PERIODS OF
CLR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR SOME RADIATING.
SATL SHOWS NEXT BATCH OF MID-HIGH CLDS SPILLING OVER UPSTREAM
RIDGE WITH ITS LEADING EDGE NOW OVER WI. SOME OF THIS WILL AFFECT
BENZIE/MANISTEE OVERNGT.
OTHER THAN SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUDS...NO OTHER SUBSTANTIAL
CHANGES TO THE FCST.
LOW PRES WAS MOVING THRU NRN QUEBEC. ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL
SLIP INTO THE STRAITS AND LAKE HURON AROUND DAWN AS A BACKDOOR
FRONT. CONVERGENCE WILL LIKELY ACT TO MAINTAIN LOW CLOUDS.
CLIMATE: TODAY WAS THE 3RD DAY IN A ROW OF HIGH TEMPS AT OR BELOW
FRZG. THIS IS ONLY THE 2ND TIME THIS HAS OCCURRED SINCE DEC 11TH.
THE LONGEST STRETCH SO FAR THESE SEASON WAS DEC 5TH-10TH. THIS
CURRENT STRETCH ENDS TODAY AS ANOTHER SURGE OF ABOVE-MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS /TYPICAL OF THIS WINTER/ BEGINS TOMORROW. WE JUST
CANNOT SUSTAIN ANY PROLONGED STRETCHES OF SUB-FRZG COLD.
HALBLAUB
&&
.LONG TERM.../ISSUED AT 425 PM/...THURSDAY AND BEYOND
THURSDAY...A MILDER PUSH OF AIR WILL MOVE UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST DUE
TO STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION. IN ADDITION...A WEAK ALBERTA CLIPPER
WILL MOVE BY TO OUR NORTH. MODEL SOUNDINGS/CROSS SECTIONS SHOW LOTS
OF DRY MID LEVEL AIR...SO IT IS LIKELY GOING TO BE TOUGH TO GENERATE
ANY PRECIPITATION. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE WITH THE LOW CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST FOR LIGHT SNOW. AS FAR AS CLOUD COVER
GOES...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED TO PREVAIL...EXPECT BECOMING
PARTLY CLOUDY SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON (WHEN 925 MB RH DROPS OFF
TO AROUND 40 PERCENT). MILDER WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S
NORTHEAST TO AROUND 40 SOUTHWEST.
SULLIVAN
EXTENDED FORECAST SYNOPTIC PATTERN...A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
TO SWING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WITHIN OVERALL AVERAGED NW FLOW
REGIME ALOFT. NO GULF CONNECTION WITH ANY OF THE SYSTEMS...AND NO
STRONG LOW PRESSURE THROUGH TUESDAY TO BRING ANYTHING CONSIDERED
HAZARDOUS. A MILD FRIDAY WILL GET REPLACED BY A BRIEF SHOT OF COLDER
AIR OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT HIGHS STILL AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE JANUARY
NORMALS. TEMPERATURES RISE AGAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BEFORE A
POSSIBLE ABRUPT SHIFT BACK TOP WINTER. MORE ON THAT BELOW.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE NORTH
WOODS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE GFS PLAYING CATCH UP TO THE ECMWF IDEA
OF HOLDING THE SYSTEM COLD FRONT BACK TO THE NW UNTIL FRIDAY. ECMWF
STILL A BIT SLOWER AND MAKING IT A MILDER DAY FRIDAY. THAT SAID...A
CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW MAY HANG ON IN THE EVENING WITHIN FGEN REGION
ON WARM FRONT. NO REAL CHANGE HERE. MOISTURE DOES INCREASE AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...BUT FOR THE MOST PART ITS ABOVE 650MB...SO
NO CHANCE OF PRECIP HITTING GROUND THERE. THE COLDER AIR DOES FILL
IN LATER IN THE DAY...WITH THE FIRST CHANCE FOR LIGHT LAKE EFFECT
SNOWS DEVELOPING AROUND WHITEFISH BAY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS CHANCE
CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND MORE SO INTO THE WEEKEND AS A
SECONDARY SHOT OF COLDER AIR ARRIVES. THIS LOOS TO MORE DEFINITELY
KICK THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UP PAST THE -10C ISOTHERM FOR ICE
INTRODUCTION. COULD MAYBE SEE AN INCH IN SOME SPOTS...MAINLY
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT CERTAINLY NO BARN BURNER OF A SNOW
SCENARIO. HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES SUNDAY NIGHT...PUTTING AN END TO ANY
SNOWS BY MONDAY MORNING. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE 40S IN NRN
LOWER AND UPPER 30S...FALLING BACK INTO THE 30S SATURDAY WITH UPPER
20S/AROUND 30F SUNDAY.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...INCREASING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS AND LOW LEVEL
WARMING ENSUES WITH NO LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL. MOISTURE THAT STREAMS
IN WILL ALL BE MID AND UPPER LEVEL WITH NO CHANCE OF SYNOPTIC
PRECIPITATION EITHER. HIGHS WILL BE MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH
READINGS IN THE 30S.
SNEAK PEEK AT WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK...THERE IS A
DECENT CONSENSUS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AHEAD OF
NRN STREAM UPPER TROUGH THAT MAY PHASE IN SOME DEGREE WITH A SRN
STREAM SYSTEM. BITTERLY COLD AIR GRADUALLY SETTLES IN BY FRIDAY WITH
A PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME.
AMOUNTS WOULD BE RIDICULOUS TO ASSESS AT THIS POINT...BUT A REAL
TASTE OF A HARSHER WINTER COULD BE ON TAP.
SMD
&&
.MARINE.../ISSUED AT 1110 PM/
WINDS ARE GUSTING TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ACROSS WHITEFISH BAY...AND
PARTS OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF NE LOWER MI. IN FACT...WIND DIR HAS
BECOME FAVORABLE FOR COASTAL CONVERGENCE AND PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT HAD
A PEAK G39 KTS LAST HR. THESE GUSTS WILL FALL THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH
A LESSER PRESSURE GRADIENT. NO ISSUES FORESEEN UNTIL THURSDAY-FRIDAY
WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT...THEN COLD FRONT FOR
A HANDFUL OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS AND POSSIBLE WAVES.
SMD/JH
&&
.AVIATION.../ISSUED AT 633 PM/...VALID FOR 00Z TAFS
TNGT: UNRESTRICTED VSBYS AND 1500-2500 FT MVFR CIGS. WINDS
GENERALLY W-NW AROUND 5 KTS...WITH A PERIOD OF GUSTY NW WINDS AT
PLN UNTIL ROUGHLY 06Z. AFTER 09Z...PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS AS WINDS
WILL TURN CALM OR LGT AND VARIABLE.
THU: UNRESTRICTED VSBYS WITH MVFR CIGS LIFTING TO 2500-3000 AND
SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOW-END VFR 3500 FT CIGS. THERE COULD BE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF NO LOW CLOUDS...REVEALING MID-LEVEL CIGS. LGT AND
VARIABLE BECOME S 5-10 KTS AFTER 17Z.
CONFIDENCE HIGH ON WIND.
CONFIDENCE HIGH ON VSBYS.
CONFIDENCE AVERAGE ON CIGS.
CONFIDENCE BELOW AVERAGE ON TIMING/OCCURRENCE OF VFR PERIODS.
HALBLAUB
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LHZ347-348.
LM...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LSZ321-322.
&&
$$
WFO APX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS DULUTH MN
609 AM CST THU JAN 5 2012
.AVIATION...12Z TAF ISSUANCE...
EXTENSIVE MID/HIGH CLOUD CANOPY SLIDING SE ACROSS MOST OF CWA THIS
MORNING. BR HAS BEEN ISOLATED AND HAVE TONED DOWN POTENTIAL IN
FCST EARLY TODAY. CONFIDENCE STILL NOT HIGH AS FCST SNDGS IMPLY AN
EARLY MORNING PERIOD OF POTENTIAL LOW CLOUD ASSOCIATED WITH
STRENGTHENING WARM ADVECTION PATTERN. GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE LATE
AFTN/EARLY EVENING AS PRESS GRADIENT INCREASES.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 AM CST THU JAN 5 2012/
SHORT TERM...AT 08Z...THE FA WAS LOCATED BETWEEN SFC LOW
DEEPENING OVER ALBERTA AND DEPARTING LOW OVER SE ONTARIO. A COUPLE
OF WEAK SFC BOUNDARIES WERE NEARBY WITH ONE ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER...THE OTHER IN WEST CENTRAL MN. BOTH OF THESE
SFC FEATURES WERE DISSOLVING. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WERE STREAMING
THROUGH THE FA AHEAD OF THE ALBERTA LOW IN WAA PATTERN. SOME
PATCHY FOG/HZ WAS LOCATED IN THE SW CORNER OF THE FA. EXPECT THE
ALBERTA SFC LOW TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN BY 00Z FRIDAY.
THIS WILL PUSH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AHEAD OF THE LOW AND ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. NO PCPN IS EXPECTED NEAR THE FRONT TODAY.
HOWEVER...GOOD WAA FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR WILL CLEAR SOME OF
THE CLOUDS AND PUSH MAX TEMPS TO NEAR OR ABOVE RECORD MAX TEMPS
TODAY. DID MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO MAX TEMPS AS DECENT
INVERSION WILL KEEP STRONGER WINDS FROM MIXING DOWN TO THE SFC AND
LIMITING FULL EXTENT OF MAX HEATING. WHAT SNOW COVER IS LEFT WILL
ALSO PLAY A ROLE IN MAX TEMPS.
THE SFC LOW TRAVELS INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO BY 12Z FRIDAY. A TRAILING
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FA BY 06Z FRIDAY SIGNALING THE
ONSET OF CAA. UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA WILL
CATCH THE SFC LOW CENTER BY 12Z FRIDAY. SHORT WAVE ENERGY WITH THE
TROF WILL REMAIN IN CANADA AND WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE FA FREE OF
PCPN TONIGHT AS DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE IN CANADA NEAR THE TRACK OF
THE SFC LOW. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE FA.
ON FRIDAY...THE SFC LOW CENTER REACHES EASTERN ONTARIO WITH COLD AIR
SURGING SEWD THROUGH THE FA BEHIND THE LOW. HOWEVER...THE COLD AIR
WILL BE OFFSET BY THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND -SN/--SN AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROF CROSSES THE FA. MODEL DIFFERENCES FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WITH THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/CAA/WIND TRAJECTORIES OVER
LAKE SUPERIOR TO ADD A MENTION OF LES. DO HAVE THE --SN HOWEVER DUE
TO THE AFOREMENTIONED TROF. EVEN WITH THE CAA...MAX TEMPS WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.
LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MAIN STORY WILL BE CONTINUATION OF ANOMALOUS WARMTH WITH MOST OF
REGION UNDER INFLUENCE OF AIR OF PACIFIC ORIGIN...ADDITIONALLY
DRIED/WARMED BY ITS DESCENT FROM THE ROCKIES. AT BEGINNING OF THIS
PERIOD...AN AMPLIFYING TROF IN MID LVL FLOW WILL ESCORT RELATIVELY
COOLER AIR INTO THE CWA DURING THE WEEKEND. COOLER...RELATIVE TO THE
PRECEDING DAYS HIGHS...BUT STILL EXPECTING THAT TEMPS WILL REMAIN
ABOVE TYPICAL JANUARY VALUES. NWLY MID LVL FLOW WITH RESIDUAL DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE SHOULD ALLOW SOME AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIP TO CONTINUE
OVER NRN PART OF MN ZONES AND POSSIBLY OVER ERN WISC ZONES. SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS CWA SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY. WARM ADVECTION
REGIME WILL DEVELOP SUN AFTN AND PERSIST INTO EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE
NEXT SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS REGION. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE QUITE WEAK
IN TERMS OF THERMAL SUPPORT SO TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE CLIMO.
INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN NWP SOLUTION OF MAJOR INTRUSION OF COLD
AIR MIDWEEK AS UPPER TROF AMPLIFIES. THERE ARE LOCATION/TIMING
DIFFERENCES WITH UPPER TROF WITH EC TRENDING SLOWER WITH SYSTEM
AND GFS ON THE FAST SIDE. GFS HAS A KNOWN BIAS OF BEING TOO
PROGRESSIVE WITH NRN BRANCH UPPER TROFS ALTHOUGH IN THIS CASE THE
GEFS MEAN AND THE ENS MEMBERS SUPPORT DETERMINISTIC SPEED. DESPITE
DIFFERENCES ALOFT...85H THERMAL FIELDS ONLY ABOUT 6HRS DIFFERENT
WITH TIMING OF COLD AIR ARRIVAL. OVERALL TREND IS TO MUCH COLDER
WEATHER PATTERN LATE IN THE WEEK. ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTBREAK OF
THE COLD AIR WILL BE INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD LIGHT
SNOWFALL AS ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES AND WRINGS OUT AVAILABLE MOISTURE.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW POTENTIAL SHOULD DEVELOP AS RELATIVELY OPEN/WARM
LAKE SFC ACTS AS AN EFFECTIVE SOURCE OF MOISTURE.
AVIATION.../06Z TAF ISSUANCE/
BACKED OFF A BIT ON THE DEGREE AND TIMING OF THE VISIBILITIES AT
INL...HIB...AND DLH. HAVE TEMPO GROUPS BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z FOR
MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. THE NAM BUFKIT SHOWS INCREASED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AT THIS TIME FRAME WITH RUC 13 VISIBILITIES
BOTTOMING OUT AT 15Z. BRD AND EVENTUALLY HYR WILL BE THE FAVORED
TERMINALS FOR IFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS AS LOWER VISIBILITIES
HAVE BEEN REPORTED OVER NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA AHEAD OF AN
ADVANCING TROUGH. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AT FOSSTON AND BEMIDJI HAVE
REPORTED SOME SNOW OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS BUT BELIEVE THAT
THIS IS ISOLATED IN NATURE AND WILL SLIDE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF BRD.
LLWS THREAT AHEAD OF ADVANCING WARM FRONT SEEMS MARGINAL FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND SHOULD STAY ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA. WINDS
WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE AERODROMES AROUND 22Z
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT.
&&
.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 40 30 36 22 / 0 0 10 10
INL 41 28 32 19 / 0 10 30 20
BRD 44 30 37 22 / 0 0 10 10
HYR 42 30 38 23 / 0 0 10 10
ASX 40 32 39 25 / 0 0 10 10
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST FRIDAY
FOR LSZ140>147.
&&
$$
AVIATION...CANNON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS DULUTH MN
332 AM CST THU JAN 5 2012
.SHORT TERM...AT 08Z...THE FA WAS LOCATED BETWEEN SFC LOW
DEEPENING OVER ALBERTA AND DEPARTING LOW OVER SE ONTARIO. A COUPLE
OF WEAK SFC BOUNDARIES WERE NEARBY WITH ONE ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER...THE OTHER IN WEST CENTRAL MN. BOTH OF THESE
SFC FEATURES WERE DISSOLVING. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WERE STREAMING
THROUGH THE FA AHEAD OF THE ALBERTA LOW IN WAA PATTERN. SOME
PATCHY FOG/HZ WAS LOCATED IN THE SW CORNER OF THE FA. EXPECT THE
ALBERTA SFC LOW TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN BY 00Z FRIDAY.
THIS WILL PUSH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AHEAD OF THE LOW AND ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. NO PCPN IS EXPECTED NEAR THE FRONT TODAY.
HOWEVER...GOOD WAA FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR WILL CLEAR SOME OF
THE CLOUDS AND PUSH MAX TEMPS TO NEAR OR ABOVE RECORD MAX TEMPS
TODAY. DID MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO MAX TEMPS AS DECENT
INVERSION WILL KEEP STRONGER WINDS FROM MIXING DOWN TO THE SFC AND
LIMITING FULL EXTENT OF MAX HEATING. WHAT SNOW COVER IS LEFT WILL
ALSO PLAY A ROLE IN MAX TEMPS.
THE SFC LOW TRAVELS INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO BY 12Z FRIDAY. A TRAILING
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FA BY 06Z FRIDAY SIGNALING THE
ONSET OF CAA. UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA WILL
CATCH THE SFC LOW CENTER BY 12Z FRIDAY. SHORT WAVE ENERGY WITH THE
TROF WILL REMAIN IN CANADA AND WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE FA FREE OF
PCPN TONIGHT AS DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE IN CANADA NEAR THE TRACK OF
THE SFC LOW. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE FA.
ON FRIDAY...THE SFC LOW CENTER REACHES EASTERN ONTARIO WITH COLD AIR
SURGING SEWD THROUGH THE FA BEHIND THE LOW. HOWEVER...THE COLD AIR
WILL BE OFFSET BY THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND -SN/--SN AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROF CROSSES THE FA. MODEL DIFFERENCES FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WITH THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/CAA/WIND TRAJECTORIES OVER
LAKE SUPERIOR TO ADD A MENTION OF LES. DO HAVE THE --SN HOWEVER DUE
TO THE AFOREMENTIONED TROF. EVEN WITH THE CAA...MAX TEMPS WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MAIN STORY WILL BE CONTINUATION OF ANOMALOUS WARMTH WITH MOST OF
REGION UNDER INFLUENCE OF AIR OF PACIFIC ORIGIN...ADDITIONALLY
DRIED/WARMED BY ITS DESCENT FROM THE ROCKIES. AT BEGINNING OF THIS
PERIOD...AN AMPLIFYING TROF IN MID LVL FLOW WILL ESCORT RELATIVELY
COOLER AIR INTO THE CWA DURING THE WEEKEND. COOLER...RELATIVE TO THE
PRECEDING DAYS HIGHS...BUT STILL EXPECTING THAT TEMPS WILL REMAIN
ABOVE TYPICAL JANUARY VALUES. NWLY MID LVL FLOW WITH RESIDUAL DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE SHOULD ALLOW SOME AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIP TO CONTINUE
OVER NRN PART OF MN ZONES AND POSSIBLY OVER ERN WISC ZONES. SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS CWA SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY. WARM ADVECTION
REGIME WILL DEVELOP SUN AFTN AND PERSIST INTO EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE
NEXT SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS REGION. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE QUITE WEAK
IN TERMS OF THERMAL SUPPORT SO TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE CLIMO.
INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN NWP SOLUTION OF MAJOR INTRUSION OF COLD
AIR MIDWEEK AS UPPER TROF AMPLIFIES. THERE ARE LOCATION/TIMING
DIFFERENCES WITH UPPER TROF WITH EC TRENDING SLOWER WITH SYSTEM
AND GFS ON THE FAST SIDE. GFS HAS A KNOWN BIAS OF BEING TOO
PROGRESSIVE WITH NRN BRANCH UPPER TROFS ALTHOUGH IN THIS CASE THE
GEFS MEAN AND THE ENS MEMBERS SUPPORT DETERMINISTIC SPEED. DESPITE
DIFFERENCES ALOFT...85H THERMAL FIELDS ONLY ABOUT 6HRS DIFFERENT
WITH TIMING OF COLD AIR ARRIVAL. OVERALL TREND IS TO MUCH COLDER
WEATHER PATTERN LATE IN THE WEEK. ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTBREAK OF
THE COLD AIR WILL BE INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD LIGHT
SNOWFALL AS ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES AND WRINGS OUT AVAILABLE MOISTURE.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW POTENTIAL SHOULD DEVELOP AS RELATIVELY OPEN/WARM
LAKE SFC ACTS AS AN EFFECTIVE SOURCE OF MOISTURE.
&&
.AVIATION.../06Z TAF ISSUANCE/
BACKED OFF A BIT ON THE DEGREE AND TIMING OF THE VISIBILITIES AT
INL...HIB...AND DLH. HAVE TEMPO GROUPS BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z FOR
MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. THE NAM BUFKIT SHOWS INCREASED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AT THIS TIME FRAME WITH RUC 13 VISIBILITIES
BOTTOMING OUT AT 15Z. BRD AND EVENTUALLY HYR WILL BE THE FAVORED
TERMINALS FOR IFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS AS LOWER VISIBILITIES
HAVE BEEN REPORTED OVER NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA AHEAD OF AN
ADVANCING TROUGH. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AT FOSSTON AND BEMIDJI HAVE
REPORTED SOME SNOW OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS BUT BELIEVE THAT
THIS IS ISOLATED IN NATURE AND WILL SLIDE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF BRD.
LLWS THREAT AHEAD OF ADVANCING WARM FRONT SEEMS MARGINAL FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND SHOULD STAY ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA. WINDS
WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE AERODROMES AROUND 22Z
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT.
&&
.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 40 30 36 22 / 0 0 10 10
INL 41 28 32 19 / 0 10 30 20
BRD 44 30 37 22 / 0 0 10 10
HYR 42 30 38 23 / 0 0 10 10
ASX 40 32 39 25 / 0 0 10 10
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST FRIDAY
FOR LSZ140>147.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM....CANNON
AVIATION...KK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
331 AM CST THU JAN 5 2012
.SHORT TERM...AT 08Z...THE FA WAS LOCATED BETWEEN SFC LOW
DEEPENING OVER ALBERTA AND DEPARTING LOW OVER SE ONTARIO. A COUPLE
OF WEAK SFC BOUNDARIES WERE NEARBY WITH ONE ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER...THE OTHER IN WEST CENTRAL MN. BOTH OF THESE
SFC FEATURES WERE DISSOLVING. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WERE STREAMING
THROUGH THE FA AHEAD OF THE ALBERTA LOW IN WAA PATTERN. SOME
PATCHY FOG/HZ WAS LOCATED IN THE SW CORNER OF THE FA. EXPECT THE
ALBERTA SFC LOW TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN BY 00Z FRIDAY.
THIS WILL PUSH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AHEAD OF THE LOW AND ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. NO PCPN IS EXPECTED NEAR THE FRONT TODAY.
HOWEVER...GOOD WAA FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR WILL CLEAR SOME OF
THE CLOUDS AND PUSH MAX TEMPS TO NEAR OR ABOVE RECORD MAX TEMPS
TODAY. DID MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO MAX TEMPS AS DECENT
INVERSION WILL KEEP STRONGER WINDS FROM MIXING DOWN TO THE SFC AND
LIMITING FULL EXTENT OF MAX HEATING. WHAT SNOW COVER IS LEFT WILL
ALSO PLAY A ROLE IN MAX TEMPS.
THE SFC LOW TRAVELS INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO BY 12Z FRIDAY. A TRAILING
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FA BY 06Z FRIDAY SIGNALING THE
ONSET OF CAA. UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA WILL
CATCH THE SFC LOW CENTER BY 12Z FRIDAY. SHORT WAVE ENERGY WITH THE
TROF WILL REMAIN IN CANADA AND WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE FA FREE OF
PCPN TONIGHT AS DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE IN CANADA NEAR THE TRACK OF
THE SFC LOW. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE FA.
ON FRIDAY...THE SFC LOW CENTER REACHES EASTERN ONTARIO WITH COLD AIR
SURGING SEWD THROUGH THE FA BEHIND THE LOW. HOWEVER...THE COLD AIR
WILL BE OFFSET BY THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND -SN/--SN AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROF CROSSES THE FA. MODEL DIFFERENCES FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WITH THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/CAA/WIND TRAJECTORIES OVER
LAKE SUPERIOR TO ADD A MENTION OF LES. DO HAVE THE --SN HOWEVER DUE
TO THE AFOREMENTIONED TROF. EVEN WITH THE CAA...MAX TEMPS WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MAIN STORY WILL BE CONTINUATION OF ANOMALOUS WARMTH WITH MOST OF
REGION UNDER INFLUENCE OF AIR OF PACIFIC ORIGIN...ADDITIONALLY
DRIED/WARMED BY ITS DESCENT FROM THE ROCKIES. AT BEGINNING OF THIS
PERIOD...AN AMPLIFYING TROF IN MID LVL FLOW WILL ESCORT RELATIVELY
COOLER AIR INTO THE CWA DURING THE WEEKEND. COOLER...RELATIVE TO THE
PRECEDING DAYS HIGHS...BUT STILL EXPECTING THAT TEMPS WILL REMAIN
ABOVE TYPICAL JANUARY VALUES. NWLY MID LVL FLOW WITH RESIDUAL DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE SHOULD ALLOW SOME AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIP TO CONTINUE
OVER NRN PART OF MN ZONES AND POSSIBLY OVER ERN WISC ZONES. SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS CWA SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY. WARM ADVECTION
REGIME WILL DEVELOP SUN AFTN AND PERSIST INTO EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE
NEXT SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS REGION. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE QUITE WEAK
IN TERMS OF THERMAL SUPPORT SO TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE CLIMO.
INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN NWP SOLUTION OF MAJOR INTRUSION OF COLD AIR
MIDWEEK AS UPPER TROF AMPLIFIES. THERE ARE LOCATION/TIMING
DIFFERENCES WITH UPPER TROF WITH EC TRENDING SLOWER WITH SYSTEM AND
GFS ON THE FAST SIDE. GFS HAS A KNOW BIAS OF BEING TOO PROGRESSIVE
WITH NRN BRANCH UPPER TROFS ALTHOUGH IN THIS CASE THE GEFS MEAN AND
THE ENS MEMBERS SUPPORT DETERMINISTIC SPEED. DESPITE DIFFERENCES
ALOFT...85H THERMAL FIELDS ONLY ABOUT 6HRS DIFFERENT WITH TIMING OF
COLD AIR ARRIVAL. OVERALL TREND IS TO MUCH COLDER WEATHER PATTERN
LATE IN THE WEEK. ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTBREAK OF THE COLD AIR WILL
BE INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOWFALL AS ARCTIC AIR
ARRIVES AND WRINGS OUT AVAILABLE MOISTURE. LAKE EFFECT SNOW
POTENTIAL SHOULD DEVELOP AS RELATIVELY OPEN/WARM LAKE SFC ACTS AS AN
EFFECTIVE SOURCE OF MOISTURE.
&&
.AVIATION.../06Z TAF ISSUANCE/
BACKED OFF A BIT ON THE DEGREE AND TIMING OF THE VISIBILITIES AT
INL...HIB...AND DLH. HAVE TEMPO GROUPS BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z FOR
MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. THE NAM BUFKIT SHOWS INCREASED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AT THIS TIME FRAME WITH RUC 13 VISIBILITIES
BOTTOMING OUT AT 15Z. BRD AND EVENTUALLY HYR WILL BE THE FAVORED
TERMINALS FOR IFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS AS LOWER VISIBILITIES
HAVE BEEN REPORTED OVER NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA AHEAD OF AN
ADVANCING TROUGH. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AT FOSSTON AND BEMIDJI HAVE
REPORTED SOME SNOW OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS BUT BELIEVE THAT
THIS IS ISOLATED IN NATURE AND WILL SLIDE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF BRD.
LLWS THREAT AHEAD OF ADVANCING WARM FRONT SEEMS MARGINAL FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND SHOULD STAY ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA. WINDS
WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE AERODROMES AROUND 22Z
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT.
&&
.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 40 30 36 22 / 0 0 10 10
INL 41 28 32 19 / 0 10 30 20
BRD 44 30 37 22 / 0 0 10 10
HYR 42 30 38 23 / 0 0 10 10
ASX 40 32 39 25 / 0 0 10 10
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST FRIDAY
FOR LSZ140>147.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM....CANNON
AVIATION...KK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
1125 PM CST WED JAN 4 2012
.AVIATION.../06Z TAF ISSUANCE/
BACKED OFF A BIT ON THE DEGREE AND TIMING OF THE VISIBILITIES AT
INL...HIB...AND DLH. HAVE TEMPO GROUPS BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z FOR
MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. THE NAM BUFKIT SHOWS INCREASED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AT THIS TIME FRAME WITH RUC 13 VISIBILITIES
BOTTOMING OUT AT 15Z. BRD AND EVENTUALLY HYR WILL BE THE FAVORED
TERMINALS FOR IFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS AS LOWER VISIBILITIES
HAVE BEEN REPORTED OVER NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA AHEAD OF AN
ADVANCING TROUGH. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AT FOSSTON AND BEMIDJI HAVE
REPORTED SOME SNOW OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS BUT BELIEVE THAT
THIS IS ISOLATED IN NATURE AND WILL SLIDE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF BRD.
LLWS THREAT AHEAD OF ADVANCING WARM FRONT SEEMS MARGINAL FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND SHOULD STAY ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA. WINDS
WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE AERODROMES AROUND 22Z
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 904 PM CST WED JAN 4 2012/
UPDATE...
LOWERED INLAND TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES TONIGHT. DE-EMPHASIZED
PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT. DECREASED CLOUDS TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM...
THE SURFACE GRADIENT HAS WEAKENED IN THIS VERY DRY AIR MASS FROM
THE ROCKIES. THIS HAS ALLOWED DECOUPLING OF THE LOWEST LAYERS AND
RAPIDLY PLUNGING TEMPERATURES IN LOW PLACES AND PROTECTED VALLEYS
AWAY FROM LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH A NEGATIVE MOISTURE LAPSE RATE OR
DRYING WITH ALTITUDE IN THE LOWEST LAYERS...MOISTURE TRAPPED BY
THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION WILL MOSTLY CONDENSE OUT AS FROST RATHER
THAN POOL AS FOG...SO WE DE-EMPHASIZED FOG. THE VERY DRY AIR MASS
IS EVAPORATING THICK CIRRUS AND MID CLOUDS MOVING DOWN-WIND FROM
THE TURBULENT LEE-WAVES JUST EAST OF THE ROCKIES...SO WE DECREASED
CLOUDINESS IN THE FORECAST.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 530 PM CST WED JAN 4 2012/
AVIATION.../0Z TAF ISSUANCE/
TOOK THE PESSIMISTIC ROUTE IN REGARDS TO VISIBILITIES BEFORE
SUNRISE. WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING OVER THE AREA EARLIER
TODAY...SOME SNOW HAS MELTED AND IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE AT THE SURFACE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF THE FORMATION
FOR FOG BETWEEN 09Z AND 13Z. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT BRD HAS THE
BEST SHOT AT IFR VISIBILITIES AS CLOUDS WILL NOT BE AS PREVALENT
THERE. WILL WAIT UNTIL THE NEXT FORECAST ISSUANCE TO ADDRESS THE
LLWS POTENTIAL FOR THE WESTERN TERMINALS. AS OF NOW...MARGINAL
CHANCES OF SEEING THIS AT INL AND BRD AFTER 18Z.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CST WED JAN 4 2012/
SHORT TERM...THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS IS THE RECORD
BREAKING WARM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.
AT 330 PM...THE CLOUDS HAD BROKEN UP CONSIDERABLY ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND. THE EXCEPTIONS ARE IN AN AREA OF THE ARROWHEAD...ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR...AND IN EASTERN AREAS OF NW WI. TEMPERATURES SOARED
THROUGH THE 30S FOR AREAS EXPERIENCING SUNSHINE...WITH BIGFORK
REPORTING 41 DEGREES AT 330 PM. THE TEMPERATURES IN THE BRAINERD
LAKES AREA WERE APPROACHING 40...WITH MID TO UPPER 30S IN THE TWIN
PORTS AREA AS WELL.
THE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE NE AS THE NIGHT WEARS
ON...AND INTO THURSDAY. THINK THE CLOUDS COULD BE MOST STUBBORN
ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD AND ACROSS AREAS OF NW WI. THIS COULD KEEP
TEMPS UP A BIT IN THOSE AREAS...WHILE THE REST OF THE WARM SECTOR
HAS HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS TO TRY TO KEEP
TEMPS UP THROUGH THE NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE WITH A LOW TEMPERATURE
FORECAST IN THE TEENS FOR THE MOST PART.
THURSDAY WILL BE A DAY WITH LIKELY RECORD BREAKING TEMPS...AS H85
TEMPS WARM INTO THE +5 TO +10C RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE CWA. HAVE
BUMPED UP TEMPS INTO THE MID 40S FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. TIME
HEIGHT PROFILES AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A FAIR AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE FOR THE AREA AS WELL.
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP TO THE SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING SOMEWHAT COLDER TEMPERATURES...BUT STILL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS. COULD BE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH
LATER THURSDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
RELATIVELY ACTIVE NWLY FLOW EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH WEAK 500MB
RIPPLES IN THE LARGE-SCALE SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHT
CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NRN TIER COUNTIES FROM
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.
HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S SOUTH TO LOWER 30S
NORTH. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL DROP BACK INTO THE
20S FOR HIGHS AND TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS ABV ZERO FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS. THE REST OF NORTHLAND...AREAS TO THE SOUTH...WILL REMAIN
BASICALLY DRY FRI THROUGH TUESDAY NEXT WEEK. A LONG WAVE RIDGE
BUILDS INTO THE WRN CONUS SUN AND MON...WITH A WARM BUBBLE OF HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHING TEMPS ONCE AGAIN WELL ABOVE AVERAGE MON AND TUE.
TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL RANGE FROM THE 30S DURING THE DAY TO
UPPER TEENS AND 20S AT NIGHT. BY LATE TUESDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK HOWEVER THE RIDGE RAPIDLY BREAKS DOWN AS A COLD UPPER LOW
DROPS SEWD FROM WRN CANADA INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND BRINGS WITH
IT BETTER CHANCES FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ALONG WITH MUCH
COLDER...NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.
&&
.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 16 43 29 36 / 0 0 0 0
INL 18 45 27 33 / 0 0 10 20
BRD 18 46 29 38 / 0 0 0 0
HYR 11 45 29 38 / 0 0 0 0
ASX 14 42 31 39 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THURSDAY TO 4 AM CST FRIDAY FOR
LSZ140>147.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...EOM
AVIATION...KK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
940 PM EST FRI JAN 6 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING...ACCOMPANIED BY SOME FLURRIES OR SPRINKLES. LIGHT LAKE-
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE LATER SATURDAY INTO
EARLY SUNDAY...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES
SET IN AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
940 UPDATE...FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS
STILL VALID. NO CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
7PM UPDATE...WITH SW SLOW ALOFT AND A COLD FRONT WELL TO THE WEST,
NEAR CHICAGO, HAVE DROPPED MENTION OF PRECIP TONIGHT. HIGH CLOUDS
ARE MOVING IN AND MAY HAMPER THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS UNTIL
AROUND SUNRISE. TEMPERATURES ARE STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL THIS
EVENING AND SHOULD BE SLOW TO DROP WITH THE SW FLOW AND SOME HIGH
CLOUDS.
UPDATED AS OF 4 PM... PARTLY CLDY CONDS COVER THE RGN ATTM...WITH
ONLY A SLOW INCRS IN CLDS ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT...AS A WEAK FRNTL
BNDRY APPCHS FROM THE NW. A FEW --SHRA/-SHSN MAY DEVELOP AFTER
06Z...AS THE FRNTL ZN NEARS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPDATED AS OF 410 PM... ONCE THE COLD FRNT PASSES TO OUR E BY
MIDDAY SAT...DECENT LOW-LVL CAA WILL SET IN (850 MB TEMPS DOWN TO
-10 TO -12C BY 06-12Z SUN). THIS SHOULD ELICIT A WEAK LAKE
RESPONSE...BUT FAIRLY SHALLOW MOIST SHOULD KEEP ACTIVITY SOMEWHAT
MUTED. FOR NOW...WE`VE GONE WITH MAX SNOW AMTS OF JUST AN INCH OR
TWO IN PARTS OF ONONDAGA/MADISON/ONEIDA...AND MAINLY JUST FLRYS
FARTHER S.
SUN AFTN INTO MON...SFC RIDGING WILL BUILD ACRS NY/PA...WITH
MAINLY DRY WX...AND SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT....
MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...LONG RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN
DECENT AGREEMENT WITH FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER UNTIL MID-WEEK WHEN A
RAINMAKER WILL HEAD OUR WAY. BOTH THE GFS AND TO SOME EXTENT THE
EURO SHOW A PASSING SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WHICH MAY BRING A FEW FLURRIES TO NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY.
ASIDE FROM THAT DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS HEIGHTS BUILD ACROSS
OUR REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE COAST.
WEDNESDAY...WHILE BOTH THE EURO AND GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING OUT OF THE DEEP SOUTH...AND THE STORM TRACKS
HAVE GOTTEN CLOSER...TIMING DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST BETWEEN BOTH
MODELS. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE FASTER WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY...BRINGING IN PRECIP BETWEEN 18Z AND 0Z.
MEANWHILE THE EURO IS ABOUT 12 HOURS SLOWER...HOLDING OFF ANY PRECIP
UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP CHANCE
POPS IN OUR AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY.
WHILE TIMING MAY BE IN QUESTION...PTYPE IS NOT AS 850 TEMPS ARE
AROUND +4C ON BOTH MODELS WHEN THE PRECIP ARRIVES...SO EVERYTHING
SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN.
THURSDAY...THE TIMING DIFFERENCES MENTIONED ABOVE WILL SHOW UP ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE STORM WITH THE GFS BEING THE DRIER AND COLDER OF
THE TWO MODELS DURING THE DAY. BENIGN THAT THIS FORECAST IS SO FAR
OUT...CONTINUED TO SHOW CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS AND JUST CALLED PTYPE
RAIN FOR MOST OF THE DAY WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX LATER IN THE DAY. THE
BOTTOM LINE IS WE WILL TRANSITION GRADUALLY TOWARD DRIER BUT COLDER
AIR LATER IN THE DAY BUT THE TIMING DETAILS ARE VERY MUCH UP IN THE
AIR.
BEYOND...STILL LOOKING INTERESTING FOR A LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY BUT PROBABLY NORTH AND WEST OF OUR AREA.
850 TEMPS OF -14/-16C WILL COMBINE WITH PLENTY OF SYNOPTIC MOISTURE
FROM AN UPPER LOW TO OUR NORTH...TO SET THE STAGE FOR WHAT APPEARS
TO BE A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR GOOD LAKE EFFECT SNOWS. AGAIN FAR OUT
BUT ON A WEST TO EVEN SOUTHWEST FLOW...MOST OF THE REAL ACTION MAY
BE ON THE FRINGES OR JUST NORTH AND WEST OF OUR AREA. TIME WILL TELL!
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
630 PM UPDATE...
OVERVIEW...VFR FOR MOST OF TONIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING
TOWARD 12Z NY TERMINALS...VFR CONTINUES AT KAVP.
THE PICTURE ON TONIGHT IS BECOMING A BIT CLEARER...WITH MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUING TO POINT TOWARD A DEVELOPING STRATUS DECK OVER
THE TERMINALS NEAR DAYBREAK. THIS IS AN ESPECIALLY TOUGH FORECAST
BECAUSE THE STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVERHEAD OR VERY NEAR THE
TERMINALS AND IS NOT CURRENTLY TO OUR WEST...WHICH WOULD MAKE IT
EASIER TO ANALYZE FOR TIMING AND ACTUAL DEVELOPMENT. WITH ALL
THAT IN MIND STILL THINK THE THE NAM IS TOO FAST IN BRINGING IN
RESTRICTIONS CLOSER TO 06Z...AND PREFER THE SLOWER GFS AND LOCAL
WRF SOLUTION OF MVFR CIGS FOR THE NY TERMINALS AROUND 12Z. THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY THE HRRR WHICH SHOWS NO RESTRICTIONS THROUGH 09Z.
WITH INCREASED CONFIDENCE HAVE INCLUDED A 2 TO 3 HOUR TEMPO GROUP
OF MVFR CIGS NEAR DAYBREAK...LEADING TO PREVAILING MVFR CIGS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. SOME IFR CAN`T BE RULED
OUT...ESPECIALLY ON THE HILLTOPS...BUT BASED ON SOUNDINGS...STILL
VERY LOW CONFIDENCE ON THIS OCCURRING AND WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE
TAFS. AT KAVP...VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE SAME
TIME PERIOD BUT EXPECTED TO BE LOW END VFR AND NOT MVFR. ALTHOUGH A
FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE TERMINALS SATURDAY...NOTHING MORE
THAN A WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED.
WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT
AROUND 5 KTS. ON SATURDAY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL VEER INTO THE WEST
WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE AND BECOMING A BIT STRONGER AT AROUND 10 KTS.
.OUTLOOK...
SUN THROUGH TUE...MAINLY VFR BUT OCNL RESTRICTIONS IN LWR
CIGS/-SHSN...SPCLY NORTHERN NY STATE TERMINALS
(KSYR/KRME) SUNDAY.
WED...MVFR IN SHOWERS.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...MLJ/SLI
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...HEDEN
AVIATION...HEDEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
703 PM EST FRI JAN 6 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING...ACCOMPANIED BY SOME FLURRIES OR SPRINKLES. LIGHT LAKE-
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE LATER SATURDAY INTO
EARLY SUNDAY...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES
SET IN AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
7PM UPDATE...WITH SW SLOW ALOFT AND A COLD FRONT WELL TO THE WEST,
NEAR CHICAGO, HAVE DROPPED MENTION OF PRECIP TONIGHT. HIGH CLOUDS
ARE MOVING IN AND MAY HAMPER THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS UNTIL
AROUND SUNRISE. TEMPERATURES ARE STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL THIS
EVENING AND SHOULD BE SLOW TO DROP WITH THE SW FLOW AND SOME HIGH
CLOUDS.
UPDATED AS OF 4 PM... PARTLY CLDY CONDS COVER THE RGN ATTM...WITH
ONLY A SLOW INCRS IN CLDS ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT...AS A WEAK FRNTL
BNDRY APPCHS FROM THE NW. A FEW --SHRA/-SHSN MAY DEVELOP AFTER
06Z...AS THE FRNTL ZN NEARS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPDATED AS OF 410 PM... ONCE THE COLD FRNT PASSES TO OUR E BY
MIDDAY SAT...DECENT LOW-LVL CAA WILL SET IN (850 MB TEMPS DOWN TO
-10 TO -12C BY 06-12Z SUN). THIS SHOULD ELICIT A WEAK LAKE
RESPONSE...BUT FAIRLY SHALLOW MOIST SHOULD KEEP ACTIVITY SOMEWHAT
MUTED. FOR NOW...WE`VE GONE WITH MAX SNOW AMTS OF JUST AN INCH OR
TWO IN PARTS OF ONONDAGA/MADISON/ONEIDA...AND MAINLY JUST FLRYS
FARTHER S.
SUN AFTN INTO MON...SFC RIDGING WILL BUILD ACRS NY/PA...WITH
MAINLY DRY WX...AND SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT....
MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...LONG RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN
DECENT AGREEMENT WITH FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER UNTIL MID-WEEK WHEN A
RAINMAKER WILL HEAD OUR WAY. BOTH THE GFS AND TO SOME EXTENT THE
EURO SHOW A PASSING SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WHICH MAY BRING A FEW FLURRIES TO NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY.
ASIDE FROM THAT DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS HEIGHTS BUILD ACROSS
OUR REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE COAST.
WEDNESDAY...WHILE BOTH THE EURO AND GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING OUT OF THE DEEP SOUTH...AND THE STORM TRACKS
HAVE GOTTEN CLOSER...TIMING DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST BETWEEN BOTH
MODELS. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE FASTER WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY...BRINGING IN PRECIP BETWEEN 18Z AND 0Z.
MEANWHILE THE EURO IS ABOUT 12 HOURS SLOWER...HOLDING OFF ANY PRECIP
UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP CHANCE
POPS IN OUR AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY.
WHILE TIMING MAY BE IN QUESTION...PTYPE IS NOT AS 850 TEMPS ARE
AROUND +4C ON BOTH MODELS WHEN THE PRECIP ARRIVES...SO EVERYTHING
SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN.
THURSDAY...THE TIMING DIFFERENCES MENTIONED ABOVE WILL SHOW UP ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE STORM WITH THE GFS BEING THE DRIER AND COLDER OF
THE TWO MODELS DURING THE DAY. BENIGN THAT THIS FORECAST IS SO FAR
OUT...CONTINUED TO SHOW CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS AND JUST CALLED PTYPE
RAIN FOR MOST OF THE DAY WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX LATER IN THE DAY. THE
BOTTOM LINE IS WE WILL TRANSITION GRADUALLY TOWARD DRIER BUT COLDER
AIR LATER IN THE DAY BUT THE TIMING DETAILS ARE VERY MUCH UP IN THE
AIR.
BEYOND...STILL LOOKING INTERESTING FOR A LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY BUT PROBABLY NORTH AND WEST OF OUR AREA.
850 TEMPS OF -14/-16C WILL COMBINE WITH PLENTY OF SYNOPTIC MOISTURE
FROM AN UPPER LOW TO OUR NORTH...TO SET THE STAGE FOR WHAT APPEARS
TO BE A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR GOOD LAKE EFFECT SNOWS. AGAIN FAR OUT
BUT ON A WEST TO EVEN SOUTHWEST FLOW...MOST OF THE REAL ACTION MAY
BE ON THE FRINGES OR JUST NORTH AND WEST OF OUR AREA. TIME WILL TELL!
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
630 PM UPDATE...
OVERVIEW...VFR FOR MOST OF TONIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING
TOWARD 12Z NY TERMINALS...VFR CONTINUES AT KAVP.
THE PICTURE ON TONIGHT IS BECOMING A BIT CLEARER...WITH MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUING TO POINT TOWARD A DEVELOPING STRATUS DECK OVER
THE TERMINALS NEAR DAYBREAK. THIS IS AN ESPECIALLY TOUGH FORECAST
BECAUSE THE STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVERHEAD OR VERY NEAR THE
TERMINALS AND IS NOT CURRENTLY TO OUR WEST...WHICH WOULD MAKE IT
EASIER TO ANALYZE FOR TIMING AND ACTUAL DEVELOPMENT. WITH ALL
THAT IN MIND STILL THINK THE THE NAM IS TOO FAST IN BRINGING IN
RESTRICTIONS CLOSER TO 06Z...AND PREFER THE SLOWER GFS AND LOCAL
WRF SOLUTION OF MVFR CIGS FOR THE NY TERMINALS AROUND 12Z. THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY THE HRRR WHICH SHOWS NO RESTRICTIONS THROUGH 09Z.
WITH INCREASED CONFIDENCE HAVE INCLUDED A 2 TO 3 HOUR TEMPO GROUP
OF MVFR CIGS NEAR DAYBREAK...LEADING TO PREVAILING MVFR CIGS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. SOME IFR CAN`T BE RULED
OUT...ESPECIALLY ON THE HILLTOPS...BUT BASED ON SOUNDINGS...STILL
VERY LOW CONFIDENCE ON THIS OCCURRING AND WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE
TAFS. AT KAVP...VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE SAME
TIME PERIOD BUT EXPECTED TO BE LOW END VFR AND NOT MVFR. ALTHOUGH A
FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE TERMINALS SATURDAY...NOTHING MORE
THAN A WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED.
WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT
AROUND 5 KTS. ON SATURDAY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL VEER INTO THE WEST
WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE AND BECOMING A BIT STRONGER AT AROUND 10 KTS.
.OUTLOOK...
SUN THROUGH TUE...MAINLY VFR BUT OCNL RESTRICTIONS IN LWR
CIGS/-SHSN...SPCLY NORTHERN NY STATE TERMINALS
(KSYR/KRME) SUNDAY.
WED...MVFR IN SHOWERS.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ/SLI
NEAR TERM...MLJ/SLI
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...HEDEN
AVIATION...HEDEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
642 PM EST FRI JAN 6 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING...ACCOMPANIED BY SOME FLURRIES OR SPRINKLES. LIGHT LAKE-
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE LATER SATURDAY INTO
EARLY SUNDAY...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES
SET IN AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
UPDATED AS OF 4 PM... PARTLY CLDY CONDS COVER THE RGN ATTM...WITH
ONLY A SLOW INCRS IN CLDS ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT...AS A WEAK FRNTL
BNDRY APPCHS FROM THE NW. A FEW --SHRA/-SHSN MAY DEVELOP AFTER
06Z...AS THE FRNTL ZN NEARS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPDATED AS OF 410 PM... ONCE THE COLD FRNT PASSES TO OUR E BY
MIDDAY SAT...DECENT LOW-LVL CAA WILL SET IN (850 MB TEMPS DOWN TO
-10 TO -12C BY 06-12Z SUN). THIS SHOULD ELICIT A WEAK LAKE
RESPONSE...BUT FAIRLY SHALLOW MOIST SHOULD KEEP ACTIVITY SOMEWHAT
MUTED. FOR NOW...WE`VE GONE WITH MAX SNOW AMTS OF JUST AN INCH OR
TWO IN PARTS OF ONONDAGA/MADISON/ONEIDA...AND MAINLY JUST FLRYS
FARTHER S.
SUN AFTN INTO MON...SFC RIDGING WILL BUILD ACRS NY/PA...WITH
MAINLY DRY WX...AND SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT....
MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...LONG RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN
DECENT AGREEMENT WITH FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER UNTIL MID-WEEK WHEN A
RAINMAKER WILL HEAD OUR WAY. BOTH THE GFS AND TO SOME EXTENT THE
EURO SHOW A PASSING SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WHICH MAY BRING A FEW FLURRIES TO NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY.
ASIDE FROM THAT DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS HEIGHTS BUILD ACROSS
OUR REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE COAST.
WEDNESDAY...WHILE BOTH THE EURO AND GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING OUT OF THE DEEP SOUTH...AND THE STORM TRACKS
HAVE GOTTEN CLOSER...TIMING DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST BETWEEN BOTH
MODELS. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE FASTER WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY...BRINGING IN PRECIP BETWEEN 18Z AND 0Z.
MEANWHILE THE EURO IS ABOUT 12 HOURS SLOWER...HOLDING OFF ANY PRECIP
UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP CHANCE
POPS IN OUR AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY.
WHILE TIMING MAY BE IN QUESTION...PTYPE IS NOT AS 850 TEMPS ARE
AROUND +4C ON BOTH MODELS WHEN THE PRECIP ARRIVES...SO EVERYTHING
SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN.
THURSDAY...THE TIMING DIFFERENCES MENTIONED ABOVE WILL SHOW UP ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE STORM WITH THE GFS BEING THE DRIER AND COLDER OF
THE TWO MODELS DURING THE DAY. BENIGN THAT THIS FORECAST IS SO FAR
OUT...CONTINUED TO SHOW CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS AND JUST CALLED PTYPE
RAIN FOR MOST OF THE DAY WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX LATER IN THE DAY. THE
BOTTOM LINE IS WE WILL TRANSITION GRADUALLY TOWARD DRIER BUT COLDER
AIR LATER IN THE DAY BUT THE TIMING DETAILS ARE VERY MUCH UP IN THE
AIR.
BEYOND...STILL LOOKING INTERESTING FOR A LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY BUT PROBABLY NORTH AND WEST OF OUR AREA.
850 TEMPS OF -14/-16C WILL COMBINE WITH PLENTY OF SYNOPTIC MOISTURE
FROM AN UPPER LOW TO OUR NORTH...TO SET THE STAGE FOR WHAT APPEARS
TO BE A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR GOOD LAKE EFFECT SNOWS. AGAIN FAR OUT
BUT ON A WEST TO EVEN SOUTHWEST FLOW...MOST OF THE REAL ACTION MAY
BE ON THE FRINGES OR JUST NORTH AND WEST OF OUR AREA. TIME WILL TELL!
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
630 PM UPDATE...
OVERVIEW...VFR FOR MOST OF TONIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING
TOWARD 12Z NY TERMINALS...VFR CONTINUES AT KAVP.
THE PICTURE ON TONIGHT IS BECOMING A BIT CLEARER...WITH MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUING TO POINT TOWARD A DEVELOPING STRATUS DECK OVER
THE TERMINALS NEAR DAYBREAK. THIS IS AN ESPECIALLY TOUGH FORECAST
BECAUSE THE STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVERHEAD OR VERY NEAR THE
TERMINALS AND IS NOT CURRENTLY TO OUR WEST...WHICH WOULD MAKE IT
EASIER TO ANALYZE FOR TIMING AND ACTUAL DEVELOPMENT. WITH ALL
THAT IN MIND STILL THINK THE THE NAM IS TOO FAST IN BRINGING IN
RESTRICTIONS CLOSER TO 06Z...AND PREFER THE SLOWER GFS AND LOCAL
WRF SOLUTION OF MVFR CIGS FOR THE NY TERMINALS AROUND 12Z. THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY THE HRRR WHICH SHOWS NO RESTRICTIONS THROUGH 09Z.
WITH INCREASED CONFIDENCE HAVE INCLUDED A 2 TO 3 HOUR TEMPO GROUP
OF MVFR CIGS NEAR DAYBREAK...LEADING TO PREVAILING MVFR CIGS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. SOME IFR CAN`T BE RULED
OUT...ESPECIALLY ON THE HILLTOPS...BUT BASED ON SOUNDINGS...STILL
VERY LOW CONFIDENCE ON THIS OCCURRING AND WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE
TAFS. AT KAVP...VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE SAME
TIME PERIOD BUT EXPECTED TO BE LOW END VFR AND NOT MVFR. ALTHOUGH A
FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE TERMINALS SATURDAY...NOTHING MORE
THAN A WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED.
WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT
AROUND 5 KTS. ON SATURDAY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL VEER INTO THE WEST
WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE AND BECOMING A BIT STRONGER AT AROUND 10 KTS.
.OUTLOOK...
SUN THROUGH TUE...MAINLY VFR BUT OCNL RESTRICTIONS IN LWR
CIGS/-SHSN...SPCLY NORTHERN NY STATE TERMINALS
(KSYR/KRME) SUNDAY.
WED...MVFR IN SHOWERS.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...MLJ
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...HEDEN
AVIATION...HEDEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
209 PM EST THU JAN 5 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR TODAY INTO TONIGHT
MOSTLY IN THE SYRACUSE AND ROME AREAS OF NEW YORK. A WARM FRONT
WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY AND BRING MILDER AIR FOR
FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATED AT 1 PM... LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO BE QUITE
WIDESPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL NY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER WE HAVE
RECEIVED NO REPORTS OF ANY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS SINCE THIS
MORNING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE INVERSION HEIGHTS REMAIN
AROUND 5 KFT THIS AFTERNOON WITH 290-300 DEGREE FLOW AND 850 MB
TEMPERATURES AROUND -12 C. LOCAL ANALOGS INDICATE CONTINUED GOOD
COVERAGE OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...
DIMINISHING AFTERWARDS AS THE FLOW BECOMES LIGHTER. FAIRLY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION RATES AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING SHOULD
KEEP ANY ACCUMULATIONS THIS AFTERNOON TO AN INCH OR LESS.
UPDATED AT 10 AM... WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH HAS PASSED EAST ACROSS
THE AREA THIS MORNING. 290 DEGREE FLOW BEHIND THIS WAVE WITH
MARGINALLY COLD AIR AROUND -10 C HAS RESULTED IN SOME LIGHT LAKE
EFFECT SNOW. 12Z BUF SOUNDING CONFIRMS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING
AN INVERSION HTS AROUND 6 KFT WITH FLOW FROM AROUND 290 AND T850
AROUND -9. LOCAL ANALOG PROGRAM INDICATES WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON BUT WITH ANY ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY AN
INCH OR LESS. HRRR MODEL SHOWS WEAKENING SNOW SHOWERS MOVING
SOUTH THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON THEN DISSIPATING. ANOTHER FACTOR
THAT WILL LIMIT ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE MILD
SURFACE TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE FREEZING IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND
SYRACUSE AREAS. BASED ON THIS EXPECT ANY ACCUMULATIONS TO BE AN
INCH OR LESS AND MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN BETWEEN BGM AND SYR.
UPDATED AT 330 AM...
LIGHT FLURRIES AND SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. A WEAK FRONT WILL GO THROUGH TODAY WITH LIMITED MOISTURE.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALL BELOW 10K FT WITH A SHALLOW DENDRITE ZONE
AT THE TOP OF THE CLOUDS. A WESTERLY FLOW IS SHIFTING TO 290 WHICH
SHOULD BRING SOME BETTER SNOW SHOWERS INTO ONEIDA COUNTY NY. STILL
NOT IMPRESSIVE WITH ONLY SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR THAN NOW. INSTABILITY
CONDITIONAL. SNOW AMOUNTS ONLY A INCH OR TWO WITH JUST FLURRIES IN
THE SOUTHERN TIER WHILE AROUND AVP PROBABLY NO SNOW AT ALL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPDATED AT 330 AM...
WEAK SYSTEMS AND MINIMAL QPF AND SNOWFALL. WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.
THE WNW FLOW CONTINUES THIS EVENING BEFORE SHIFTING TO SW WITH A
WARM FRONT. SHEAR WILL INCREASE SO LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL BE WEAK.
MOISTURE WITH THE FRONT ONLY AT MID LEVELS. AGAIN WILL BE TOUGH TO
GET MUCH SNOW ACCUMULATION. ANY SNOW SHOULD BE AGAIN IN NY.
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW OVER THE NW GREAT LAKES. WARM SW FLOW TONIGHT
SO TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INITIALLY THEN LEVEL OFF.
BY FRIDAY MORNING MOST OF THE LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES WILL BE
GONE. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND FLURRIES IN ONEIDA COUNTY NY WITH
A LITTLE LAKE MOISTURE AND WEST LL FLOW. FRIDAY WARMEST DAY OF THE
WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW AND MID 40S WITH SOME SUNSHINE
ESPECIALLY IN NE PA.
MILD DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE APPROACH
OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. THE SFC LOW WILL BE MOVING EAST NEAR
SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY INTO THE MARITIMES FRI TO SAT. THIS FRONT WILL
TAKE ITS TIME CROSSING THE CWA SAT AND SAT NGT. IF THE FRONT IS
LATER TEMPERATURES COULD EASILY BE WARMER THAN THE UPPER 30S AND
L40S FORECASTING NOW. FRI NGT TO SAT IF ANY SHOWERS OCCUR MAY BE
RAIN OR SNOW. SAT NGT ON AGAIN COLD ENOUGH FOR JUST SNOW. FLOW
SHIFTS TO NW WITH CAA AND A SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH. SNOW
SHOWERS AGAIN MAINLY IN CENTRAL NY. NOT IMPRESSIVE WITH 850 AIR
NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR JUST LAKE EFFECT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
2 PM UPDATE...
LONG RANGE GUIDANCE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH UNEVENTFUL
WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN A STORM SYSTEM PRODUCING MOSTLY
RAIN IN THE LATER WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME-FRAME. NOW TO THE DETAILS...
SUNDAY NIGHT...AN H5 TROF WILL KEEP ENOUGH COLD AIR IN THE
NORTHEAST FOR A LIMITED SHOT OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT. 850
TEMPS OF -10C/-12C ARE JUST COLD ENOUGH TO PRODUCE CONDITIONAL
INSTABILITY OVER THE LAKE. FOR OUR AREA THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR
WILL BE THE WINDS WHICH WILL START OUT WESTERLY BUT BACK TOWARD
THE SOUTHWEST BY MONDAY MORNING...SHIFTING ANYTHING WE GET NORTH
OF THE CWA. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EARLY IN THE NIGHT LOOK GOOD BEFORE
THE FLOW BACKS AS MENTIONED ABOVE.
MONDAY/TUESDAY....HIGH PRESSURE OVER OUR AREA MONDAY WILL MOVE OFF
THE COAST LATE IN THE DAY. WAA ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH WILL
PUSH 850 TEMPS ABOVE ZERO TUESDAY. IN RESPONSE TEMPS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S MONDAY MAY TOUCH THE 40 DEGREE MARK BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.
WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...LONG RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
A STORM TRACKING OUT OF THE DEEP SOUTH DURING THIS TIME BUT DO
DIFFER ON THE TRACK A BIT. EITHER WAY WE ARE PLENTY WARM FOR JUST
RAIN AS THE PRECIPITATION STARTS LATER WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. BEYOND THAT WE WILL REMAIN WARM ENOUGH FOR ALMOST ALL RAIN
THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH ANY REAL SHOT OF COLD AIR COMING IN BY
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOWS. ALTHOUGH VERY FAR
OUT...MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW A POLAR VORTEX SETTING UP OVER THE
GREAT LAKES...WHICH WOULD KEEP OUR WINDS OUT OF THE WEST TO
SOUTHWEST...WHICH MAY KEEP MOST OF THE ACTION NORTH AND WEST OF
OUR CWA.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
2 PM UPDATE...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON...MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE NY TERMINALS WITH
VFR CIGS AT KAVP. WITH A COLD NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS WILL IMPACT MAINLY NY TERMINALS OUTSIDE OF KRME. GENERALLY
SPEAKING MVFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE HERE BUT SOME BRIEF IFR IS
POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS AT KITH AND KBGM TOWARD 0Z
THIS EVENING AS THE FLOW BACKS AND WEAKENS A WARM FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE AREA. AS THIS HAPPENS RESTRICTIONS WILL IMPROVE TO
VFR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS BUT MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTH THROUGH 06Z. AFTER 06Z, LOW CLOUDS SHOULD
SCATTER OUT WITH A MID DECK ABOVE DUE TO THE APPROACHING WARM
FRONT.
WITH THE FROPA THIS AFTERNOON WE ARE SEEING A TWO HOUR WINDOW OF
SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 15KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25KTS. EXPECT THIS TO
CONTINUE ACROSS THE NY TERMINALS THROUGH ABOUT 20Z. WINDS WILL BE
OUT OF THE NORTHWEST THROUGH EVENING...BACKING INTO THE SOUTHEAST
TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT.
.OUTLOOK...
FRI AND FRI NGT...MOSTLY VFR. SOME MVFR POSSIBLE AT KRME.
SAT THROUGH TUE...MOSTLY VFR BUT OCNL RESTRICTIONS IN LWR
CIGS/-SHRA/-SHSN...SPCLY NY STATE TERMINALS (KSYR/KRME/KITH/KBGM).
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...MSE/TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...HEDEN
AVIATION...HEDEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
114 PM EST THU JAN 5 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR TODAY INTO TONIGHT
MOSTLY IN THE SYRACUSE AND ROME AREAS OF NEW YORK. A WARM FRONT
WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY AND BRING MILDER AIR FOR
FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATED AT 1 PM... LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO BE QUITE
WIDESPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL NY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER WE HAVE
RECEIVED NO REPORTS OF ANY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS SINCE THIS
MORNING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE INVERSION HEIGHTS REMAIN
AROUND 5 KFT THIS AFTERNOON WITH 290-300 DEGREE FLOW AND 850 MB
TEMPERATURES AROUND -12 C. LOCAL ANALOGS INDICATE CONTINUED GOOD
COVERAGE OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...
DIMINISHING AFTERWARDS AS THE FLOW BECOMES LIGHTER. FAIRLY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION RATES AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING SHOULD
KEEP ANY ACCUMULATIONS THIS AFTERNOON TO AN INCH OR LESS.
UPDATED AT 10 AM... WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH HAS PASSED EAST ACROSS
THE AREA THIS MORNING. 290 DEGREE FLOW BEHIND THIS WAVE WITH
MARGINALLY COLD AIR AROUND -10 C HAS RESULTED IN SOME LIGHT LAKE
EFFECT SNOW. 12Z BUF SOUNDING CONFIRMS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING
AN INVERSION HTS AROUND 6 KFT WITH FLOW FROM AROUND 290 AND T850
AROUND -9. LOCAL ANALOG PROGRAM INDICATES WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON BUT WITH ANY ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY AN
INCH OR LESS. HRRR MODEL SHOWS WEAKENING SNOW SHOWERS MOVING
SOUTH THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON THEN DISSIPATING. ANOTHER FACTOR
THAT WILL LIMIT ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE MILD
SURFACE TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE FREEZING IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND
SYRACUSE AREAS. BASED ON THIS EXPECT ANY ACCUMULATIONS TO BE AN
INCH OR LESS AND MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN BETWEEN BGM AND SYR.
UPDATED AT 330 AM...
LIGHT FLURRIES AND SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. A WEAK FRONT WILL GO THROUGH TODAY WITH LIMITED MOISTURE.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALL BELOW 10K FT WITH A SHALLOW DENDRITE ZONE
AT THE TOP OF THE CLOUDS. A WESTERLY FLOW IS SHIFTING TO 290 WHICH
SHOULD BRING SOME BETTER SNOW SHOWERS INTO ONEIDA COUNTY NY. STILL
NOT IMPRESSIVE WITH ONLY SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR THAN NOW. INSTABILITY
CONDITIONAL. SNOW AMOUNTS ONLY A INCH OR TWO WITH JUST FLURRIES IN
THE SOUTHERN TIER WHILE AROUND AVP PROBABLY NO SNOW AT ALL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPDATED AT 330 AM...
WEAK SYSTEMS AND MINIMAL QPF AND SNOWFALL. WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.
THE WNW FLOW CONTINUES THIS EVENING BEFORE SHIFTING TO SW WITH A
WARM FRONT. SHEAR WILL INCREASE SO LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL BE WEAK.
MOISTURE WITH THE FRONT ONLY AT MID LEVELS. AGAIN WILL BE TOUGH TO
GET MUCH SNOW ACCUMULATION. ANY SNOW SHOULD BE AGAIN IN NY.
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW OVER THE NW GREAT LAKES. WARM SW FLOW TONIGHT
SO TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INITIALLY THEN LEVEL OFF.
BY FRIDAY MORNING MOST OF THE LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES WILL BE
GONE. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND FLURRIES IN ONEIDA COUNTY NY WITH
A LITTLE LAKE MOISTURE AND WEST LL FLOW. FRIDAY WARMEST DAY OF THE
WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW AND MID 40S WITH SOME SUNSHINE
ESPECIALLY IN NE PA.
MILD DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE APPROACH
OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. THE SFC LOW WILL BE MOVING EAST NEAR
SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY INTO THE MARITIMES FRI TO SAT. THIS FRONT WILL
TAKE ITS TIME CROSSING THE CWA SAT AND SAT NGT. IF THE FRONT IS
LATER TEMPERATURES COULD EASILY BE WARMER THAN THE UPPER 30S AND
L40S FORECASTING NOW. FRI NGT TO SAT IF ANY SHOWERS OCCUR MAY BE
RAIN OR SNOW. SAT NGT ON AGAIN COLD ENOUGH FOR JUST SNOW. FLOW
SHIFTS TO NW WITH CAA AND A SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH. SNOW
SHOWERS AGAIN MAINLY IN CENTRAL NY. NOT IMPRESSIVE WITH 850 AIR
NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR JUST LAKE EFFECT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPDATE 230 AM...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO FORECAST AS LATEST SUITE
OF MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND TELLS THE
SAME STORY AS PREVIOUS RUN.
PREVIOUS DISC...
MODELS IN AGREEMENT FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A BROAD TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN US. SOME WEAK SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. THEY WILL TRY TO SET OFF SOME PRECIPITATION
OVER THE CWA. HOWEVER, THIS LOOKS TO BE LIGHT AND CLOSER TO THE
LAKE SHORE, NOT TOO MENTION A GREAT AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY THAT ANY
OF IT WILL BE MEASURABLE. GIVEN THIS, HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHC
POPS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. MAIN THOUGHTS BEHIND THE LOW
POPS AND HIGH UNCERTAINTY ARE THE FACT THAT THE 700MB FLOW IS FROM
THE WEST SOUTH WEST AND THE 850 TEMPS ARE ONLY ABOUT -6C OVER LAKE
ERIE, WHICH IS NOT TOO EXCITING FOR LAKE EFFECT THIS TIME OF YEAR.
THERE DOES LOOK TO BE A WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTER, BUT IT IS VERY
WEAK AND GOES WAY TO THE NORTH, WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
VERY QUICKLY BEHIND IT.
THE ECMWF HAS CHANGED DRAMATICALLY SINCE YESTERDAYS RUNS, WHERE IT
HAD THE NOR`EASTER OVER NEW YORK CITY ON MONDAY. NOW, IT IS IN MUCH
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS AND HAS THE LOW NEAR BERMUDA, WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CWA. GIVEN THIS, AND WARMER TEMPERATURES
NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGHS BEING NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL, HAVE
KEPT THE CWA DRY FROM MONDAY ON.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
2 PM UPDATE...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON...MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE NY TERMINALS WITH
VFR CIGS AT KAVP. WITH A COLD NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS WILL IMPACT MAINLY NY TERMINALS OUTSIDE OF KRME. GENERALLY
SPEAKING MVFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE HERE BUT SOME BRIEF IFR IS
POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS AT KITH AND KBGM TOWARD 0Z
THIS EVENING AS THE FLOW BACKS AND WEAKENS A WARM FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE AREA. AS THIS HAPPENS RESTRICTIONS WILL IMPROVE TO
VFR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS BUT MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTH THROUGH 06Z. AFTER 06Z, LOW CLOUDS SHOULD
SCATTER OUT WITH A MID DECK ABOVE DUE TO THE APPROACHING WARM
FRONT.
WITH THE FROPA THIS AFTERNOON WE ARE SEEING A TWO HOUR WINDOW OF
SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 15KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25KTS. EXPECT THIS TO
CONTINUE ACROSS THE NY TERMINALS THROUGH ABOUT 20Z. WINDS WILL BE
OUT OF THE NORTHWEST THROUGH EVENING...BACKING INTO THE SOUTHEAST
TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT.
.OUTLOOK...
FRI AND FRI NGT...MOSTLY VFR. SOME MVFR POSSIBLE AT KRME.
SAT THROUGH TUE...MOSTLY VFR BUT OCNL RESTRICTIONS IN LWR
CIGS/-SHRA/-SHSN...SPCLY NY STATE TERMINALS (KSYR/KRME/KITH/KBGM).
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...MSE/TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...RRM/SLI
AVIATION...HEDEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
100 PM EST THU JAN 5 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR TODAY INTO TONIGHT
MOSTLY IN THE SYRACUSE AND ROME AREAS OF NEW YORK. A WARM FRONT
WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY AND BRING MILDER AIR FOR
FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATED AT 10 AM... WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH HAS PASSED EAST ACROSS
THE AREA THIS MORNING. 290 DEGREE FLOW BEHIND THIS WAVE WITH
MARGINALLY COLD AIR AROUND -10 C HAS RESULTED IN SOME LIGHT LAKE
EFFECT SNOW. 12Z BUF SOUNDING CONFIRMS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING
AN INVERSION HTS AROUND 6 KFT WITH FLOW FROM AROUND 290 AND T850
AROUND -9. LOCAL ANALOG PROGRAM INDICATES WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON BUT WITH ANY ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY AN
INCH OR LESS. HRRR MODEL SHOWS WEAKENING SNOW SHOWERS MOVING
SOUTH THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON THEN DISSIPATING. ANOTHER FACTOR
THAT WILL LIMIT ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE MILD
SURFACE TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE FREEZING IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND
SYRACUSE AREAS. BASED ON THIS EXPECT ANY ACCUMULATIONS TO BE AN
INCH OR LESS AND MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN BETWEEN BGM AND SYR.
UPDATED AT 330 AM...
LIGHT FLURRIES AND SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. A WEAK FRONT WILL GO THROUGH TODAY WITH LIMITED MOISTURE.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALL BELOW 10K FT WITH A SHALLOW DENDRITE ZONE
AT THE TOP OF THE CLOUDS. A WESTERLY FLOW IS SHIFTING TO 290 WHICH
SHOULD BRING SOME BETTER SNOW SHOWERS INTO ONEIDA COUNTY NY. STILL
NOT IMPRESSIVE WITH ONLY SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR THAN NOW. INSTABILITY
CONDITIONAL. SNOW AMOUNTS ONLY A INCH OR TWO WITH JUST FLURRIES IN
THE SOUTHERN TIER WHILE AROUND AVP PROBABLY NO SNOW AT ALL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPDATED AT 330 AM...
WEAK SYSTEMS AND MINIMAL QPF AND SNOWFALL. WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.
THE WNW FLOW CONTINUES THIS EVENING BEFORE SHIFTING TO SW WITH A
WARM FRONT. SHEAR WILL INCREASE SO LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL BE WEAK.
MOISTURE WITH THE FRONT ONLY AT MID LEVELS. AGAIN WILL BE TOUGH TO
GET MUCH SNOW ACCUMULATION. ANY SNOW SHOULD BE AGAIN IN NY.
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW OVER THE NW GREAT LAKES. WARM SW FLOW TONIGHT
SO TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INITIALLY THEN LEVEL OFF.
BY FRIDAY MORNING MOST OF THE LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES WILL BE
GONE. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND FLURRIES IN ONEIDA COUNTY NY WITH
A LITTLE LAKE MOISTURE AND WEST LL FLOW. FRIDAY WARMEST DAY OF THE
WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW AND MID 40S WITH SOME SUNSHINE
ESPECIALLY IN NE PA.
MILD DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE APPROACH
OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. THE SFC LOW WILL BE MOVING EAST NEAR
SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY INTO THE MARITIMES FRI TO SAT. THIS FRONT WILL
TAKE ITS TIME CROSSING THE CWA SAT AND SAT NGT. IF THE FRONT IS
LATER TEMPERATURES COULD EASILY BE WARMER THAN THE UPPER 30S AND
L40S FORECASTING NOW. FRI NGT TO SAT IF ANY SHOWERS OCCUR MAY BE
RAIN OR SNOW. SAT NGT ON AGAIN COLD ENOUGH FOR JUST SNOW. FLOW
SHIFTS TO NW WITH CAA AND A SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH. SNOW
SHOWERS AGAIN MAINLY IN CENTRAL NY. NOT IMPRESSIVE WITH 850 AIR
NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR JUST LAKE EFFECT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPDATE 230 AM...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO FORECAST AS LATEST SUITE
OF MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND TELLS THE
SAME STORY AS PREVIOUS RUN.
PREVIOUS DISC...
MODELS IN AGREEMENT FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A BROAD TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN US. SOME WEAK SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. THEY WILL TRY TO SET OFF SOME PRECIPITATION
OVER THE CWA. HOWEVER, THIS LOOKS TO BE LIGHT AND CLOSER TO THE
LAKE SHORE, NOT TOO MENTION A GREAT AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY THAT ANY
OF IT WILL BE MEASURABLE. GIVEN THIS, HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHC
POPS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. MAIN THOUGHTS BEHIND THE LOW
POPS AND HIGH UNCERTAINTY ARE THE FACT THAT THE 700MB FLOW IS FROM
THE WEST SOUTH WEST AND THE 850 TEMPS ARE ONLY ABOUT -6C OVER LAKE
ERIE, WHICH IS NOT TOO EXCITING FOR LAKE EFFECT THIS TIME OF YEAR.
THERE DOES LOOK TO BE A WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTER, BUT IT IS VERY
WEAK AND GOES WAY TO THE NORTH, WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
VERY QUICKLY BEHIND IT.
THE ECMWF HAS CHANGED DRAMATICALLY SINCE YESTERDAYS RUNS, WHERE IT
HAD THE NOR`EASTER OVER NEW YORK CITY ON MONDAY. NOW, IT IS IN MUCH
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS AND HAS THE LOW NEAR BERMUDA, WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CWA. GIVEN THIS, AND WARMER TEMPERATURES
NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGHS BEING NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL, HAVE
KEPT THE CWA DRY FROM MONDAY ON.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
2 PM UPDATE...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON...MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE NY TERMINALS WITH
VFR CIGS AT KAVP. WITH A COLD NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS WILL IMPACT MAINLY NY TERMINALS OUTSIDE OF KRME. GENERALLY
SPEAKING MVFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE HERE BUT SOME BRIEF IFR IS
POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS AT KITH AND KBGM TOWARD 0Z
THIS EVENING AS THE FLOW BACKS AND WEAKENS A WARM FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE AREA. AS THIS HAPPENS RESTRICTIONS WILL IMPROVE TO
VFR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS BUT MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTH THROUGH 06Z. AFTER 06Z, LOW CLOUDS SHOULD
SCATTER OUT WITH A MID DECK ABOVE DUE TO THE APPROACHING WARM
FRONT.
WITH THE FROPA THIS AFTERNOON WE ARE SEEING A TWO HOUR WINDOW OF
SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 15KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25KTS. EXPECT THIS TO
CONTINUE ACROSS THE NY TERMINALS THROUGH ABOUT 20Z. WINDS WILL BE
OUT OF THE NORTHWEST THROUGH EVENING...BACKING INTO THE SOUTHEAST
TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT.
.OUTLOOK...
FRI AND FRI NGT...MOSTLY VFR. SOME MVFR POSSIBLE AT KRME.
SAT THROUGH TUE...MOSTLY VFR BUT OCNL RESTRICTIONS IN LWR
CIGS/-SHRA/-SHSN...SPCLY NY STATE TERMINALS (KSYR/KRME/KITH/KBGM).
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...MSE/TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...RRM/SLI
AVIATION...HEDEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
1003 AM EST THU JAN 5 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR TODAY INTO TONIGHT
MOSTLY IN THE SYRACUSE AND ROME AREAS OF NEW YORK. A WARM FRONT
WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY AND BRING MILDER AIR FOR
FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATED AT 10 AM... WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH HAS PASSED EAST ACROSS
THE AREA THIS MORNING. 290 DEGREE FLOW BEHIND THIS WAVE WITH
MARGINALLY COLD AIR AROUND -10 C HAS RESULTED IN SOME LIGHT LAKE
EFFECT SNOW. 12Z BUF SOUNDING CONFIRMS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING
AN INVERSION HTS AROUND 6 KFT WITH FLOW FROM AROUND 290 AND T850
AROUND -9. LOCAL ANALOG PROGRAM INDICATES WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON BUT WITH ANY ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY AN
INCH OR LESS. HRRR MODEL SHOWS WEAKENING SNOW SHOWERS MOVING
SOUTH THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON THEN DISSIPATING. ANOTHER FACTOR
THAT WILL LIMIT ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE MILD
SURFACE TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE FREEZING IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND
SYRACUSE AREAS. BASED ON THIS EXPECT ANY ACCUMULATIONS TO BE AN
INCH OR LESS AND MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN BETWEEN BGM AND SYR.
UPDATED AT 330 AM...
LIGHT FLURRIES AND SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. A WEAK FRONT WILL GO THROUGH TODAY WITH LIMITED MOISTURE.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALL BELOW 10K FT WITH A SHALLOW DENDRITE ZONE
AT THE TOP OF THE CLOUDS. A WESTERLY FLOW IS SHIFTING TO 290 WHICH
SHOULD BRING SOME BETTER SNOW SHOWERS INTO ONEIDA COUNTY NY. STILL
NOT IMPRESSIVE WITH ONLY SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR THAN NOW. INSTABILITY
CONDITIONAL. SNOW AMOUNTS ONLY A INCH OR TWO WITH JUST FLURRIES IN
THE SOUTHERN TIER WHILE AROUND AVP PROBABLY NO SNOW AT ALL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPDATED AT 330 AM...
WEAK SYSTEMS AND MINIMAL QPF AND SNOWFALL. WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.
THE WNW FLOW CONTINUES THIS EVENING BEFORE SHIFTING TO SW WITH A
WARM FRONT. SHEAR WILL INCREASE SO LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL BE WEAK.
MOISTURE WITH THE FRONT ONLY AT MID LEVELS. AGAIN WILL BE TOUGH TO
GET MUCH SNOW ACCUMULATION. ANY SNOW SHOULD BE AGAIN IN NY.
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW OVER THE NW GREAT LAKES. WARM SW FLOW TONIGHT
SO TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INITIALLY THEN LEVEL OFF.
BY FRIDAY MORNING MOST OF THE LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES WILL BE
GONE. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND FLURRIES IN ONEIDA COUNTY NY WITH
A LITTLE LAKE MOISTURE AND WEST LL FLOW. FRIDAY WARMEST DAY OF THE
WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW AND MID 40S WITH SOME SUNSHINE
ESPECIALLY IN NE PA.
MILD DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE APPROACH
OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. THE SFC LOW WILL BE MOVING EAST NEAR
SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY INTO THE MARITIMES FRI TO SAT. THIS FRONT WILL
TAKE ITS TIME CROSSING THE CWA SAT AND SAT NGT. IF THE FRONT IS
LATER TEMPERATURES COULD EASILY BE WARMER THAN THE UPPER 30S AND
L40S FORECASTING NOW. FRI NGT TO SAT IF ANY SHOWERS OCCUR MAY BE
RAIN OR SNOW. SAT NGT ON AGAIN COLD ENOUGH FOR JUST SNOW. FLOW
SHIFTS TO NW WITH CAA AND A SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH. SNOW
SHOWERS AGAIN MAINLY IN CENTRAL NY. NOT IMPRESSIVE WITH 850 AIR
NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR JUST LAKE EFFECT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPDATE 230 AM...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO FORECAST AS LATEST SUITE
OF MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND TELLS THE
SAME STORY AS PREVIOUS RUN.
PREVIOUS DISC...
MODELS IN AGREEMENT FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A BROAD TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN US. SOME WEAK SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. THEY WILL TRY TO SET OFF SOME PRECIPITATION
OVER THE CWA. HOWEVER, THIS LOOKS TO BE LIGHT AND CLOSER TO THE
LAKE SHORE, NOT TOO MENTION A GREAT AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY THAT ANY
OF IT WILL BE MEASURABLE. GIVEN THIS, HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHC
POPS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. MAIN THOUGHTS BEHIND THE LOW
POPS AND HIGH UNCERTAINTY ARE THE FACT THAT THE 700MB FLOW IS FROM
THE WEST SOUTH WEST AND THE 850 TEMPS ARE ONLY ABOUT -6C OVER LAKE
ERIE, WHICH IS NOT TOO EXCITING FOR LAKE EFFECT THIS TIME OF YEAR.
THERE DOES LOOK TO BE A WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTER, BUT IT IS VERY
WEAK AND GOES WAY TO THE NORTH, WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
VERY QUICKLY BEHIND IT.
THE ECMWF HAS CHANGED DRAMATICALLY SINCE YESTERDAYS RUNS, WHERE IT
HAD THE NOR`EASTER OVER NEW YORK CITY ON MONDAY. NOW, IT IS IN MUCH
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS AND HAS THE LOW NEAR BERMUDA, WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CWA. GIVEN THIS, AND WARMER TEMPERATURES
NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGHS BEING NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL, HAVE
KEPT THE CWA DRY FROM MONDAY ON.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE MID TO
LATE MORNING HOURS. IN GENERAL MVFR CIGS WILL PRECEDE AND FOLLOW
THE FRONT WITH MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR SNOW SHOWERS AT KRME/KSYR
DUE TO LAKE EFFECT. AT KRME THE SNOW SHOWERS ARE MOST LIKELY
BETWEEN 12Z-14Z AND 14Z-16Z AT KSYR. BRIEF MVFR SNOW SHOWERS ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE AT KITH BETWEEN 15Z-18Z. AT KAVP, ONLY BRIEF MVFR
CIGS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THIS FRONT.
THIS EVENING AS THE FLOW BACKS AND WEAKENS A WARM FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE AREA. LINGERING LAKE CLOUDS WILL KEEP MVFR CIGS
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AT KBGM/KITH/KSYR/KRME. AFTER 06Z, LOW
CLOUDS SHOULD SCATTER OUT WITH A MID DECK ABOVE DUE TO THE
APPROACHING WARM FRONT.
SOUTHWEST WINDS 5-10 KNOTS BUT GUSTY AT SYR BECOMING NORTHWEST
BEHIND FROPA AT 10-12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS. THE WINDS
WILL DIMINISH BY MID AFTERNOON THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS
EVENING.
.OUTLOOK...
FRI AND FRI NGT...MOSTLY VFR.
SAT THROUGH MON...OCNL RESTRICTIONS IN LWR
CIGS/-SHRA/-SHSN...SPCLY NY STATE TERMINALS (KSYR/KRME/KITH/KBGM).
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...MSE/TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...RRM/SLI
AVIATION...RRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1014 AM CST THU JAN 5 2012
.DISCUSSION...
CHALLENGES TODAY WILL BE TEMPERATURES AND WIND. MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT...BUT WILL LEAN TOWARD THE HIGHER RESOLUTION RUC FOR THE
NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS.
16 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE FROM CENTRAL
SASKATCHEWAN TO SOUTHERN MANITOBA WITH A WARM FRONT JUST EAST OF
THE MN/ND BORDER. TEMPERATURES WEST OF THIS BOUNDARY WHERE SURFACE
WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. FARGO HAS ALREADY TIED ITS RECORD HIGH FOR
THE DAY. TEMPERATURES EAST OF THE BOUNDARY ARE A BIT COOLER IN THE
LOWER 30S. WARM AIR ADVECTION IS MAXIMIZED FROM THE SURFACE TO 850
HPA BY 18 UTC THIS AFTERNOON. AN IMPRESSIVE SURFACE INVERSION WILL
PREVENT FULL EXTENT OF WARMING ALOFT TO REACH THE SURFACE AND SOME
OF THIS ENERGY WILL GO INTO MELTING SNOW...BUT STILL EXPECT HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE MID 40S ACROSS THE SNOW PACK TO THE MID 50S FOR
AREAS WITH LITTLE TO NO SNOW. FORECAST HIGHS MAY STILL BE A BIT
LOW...ESPECIALLY IF THE INVERSION BREAKS DOWN ALLOWING FOR GREATER
MIXING. EITHER WAY...RECORDS WILL BE BROKEN TODAY.
ALL MODELS SHOWING 4O TO 50 KTS AT 925 HPA THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY. WITH THE STRONG INVERSION...SURFACE TEMPERATURES WOULD NEED
TO REACH THE UPPER 50S INTO THE 60S TO MIX THESE WINDS DRY
ADIABATICALLY TO THE SURFACE. DON/T THINK TEMPERATURES WILL GET
THAT WARM...SO WILL HOLD OFF ON AN ADVISORY FOR NOW. STILL SOMETHING
TO WATCH AS AREAS WITH LITTLE TO NO SNOW AND/OR THE HIGHER TERRAIN
WEST OF THE NORTHERN VALLEY MAY STILL TAP INTO STRONGER WINDS
ALOFT AND REACH SUSTAINED 30 MPH. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT BREEZY
WESTERLY WIND DEVELOPING LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
FROM 15 TO 25 MPH AND GUSTS TO 35 MPH.
MAIN CHANGES TO THE GRIDS WERE TO UPDATE THE TEMPERATURE CURVE AND
RAISE HIGH VALUES A COUPLE DEGREES ACROSS SNOW FREE AREAS. THE
REST OF THE FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED AT
THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...
WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY AND GUST TO NEAR 30KT BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING OVER ALL BUT THE FAR EAST. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
AT ALL TAF AIRFIELDS THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 AM CST THU JAN 5 2012/
SHORT TERM...
THE MAIN CHALLENGE IS TEMPS AND JUST HOW WARM WE WILL GET TODAY.
MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST.
PREFER THE GFS MOISTURE FIELDS WITH THE NAM DOING A BIT BETTER IN
REGARDS TO THERMAL FIELDS.
FOR TODAY...THE STAGE IS SET FOR RECORD TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE
REGION. WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS A THERMAL RIDGE
AT 925-850MB CRESTS OVER THE REGION AROUND 18Z. THERE WILL BE
NEARLY 50KT TO MIX TO THE SFC FROM 925MB...ALTHOUGH A STRONG
INVERSION SHOULD PRECLUDE MIXING OF ALL THIS WIND. IT WILL BECOME
WINDY THOUGH IN THE WEST AND BREEZY TO WINDY IN MOST AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON. GIVEN FAVORABLE WEST WINDS...VERY WARM TEMPS AND BARE
GROUND TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA EXPECT CHINOOK MODIFIED
AIR TO MOVE OVER THE REGION. AREAS THAT HAVE MORE SNOW IN THE
NORTH CENTRAL RED RIVER VALLEY WILL BE COOLER THAN THE WEST AND
SOUTH...BUT STILL EXPECTING EVEN SNOW COVERED AREAS FROM 40-45 AND
SNOW FREE AREAS FROM 50-55. THE RECORD HIGHS ARE 42 AT FGF AND
GFK...AND 40 IN FARGO. THESE SHOULD BE SURPASSED...WITH FARGO
POSSIBLY GETTING CLOSE TO THE ALL TIME JANUARY HIGH OF 54 SET ON
JANUARY 20 IN 1908. CAN/T EVEN RULE OUT THE GRAND FORKS AREA
GETTING CLOSE TO THE ALL TIME RECORD HIGHS OF 52 ON JANUARY 10 IN
1990...ALTHOUGH THINKING WITH DEEPER SNOW PACK HERE WE SHOULD
REMAIN IN THE 40S...BUT SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON. IF MORE
MIXING OCCURS AND THE INVERSION BECOMES MORE ADIABATIC THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN A WIND ADVISORY COULD BE NEEDED FOR
SOME AREAS. THE BIGGEST THREAT FOR STRONGER WINDS WILL BE IN THE
WEST AND WHERE SNOW COVER IS MINIMAL.
FOR TONIGHT...COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL MOVE IN ALOFT AND WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN IN THE BREEZY CATEGORY AT LEAST FOR MOST AREAS.
GIVEN FAIRLY WEAK SFC COLD ADVECTION...TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL
ABOVE NORMAL. CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE LATE IN THE NORTH WITH A
SHORTWAVE ROTATING INTO THE AREA. THE GFS WOULD BRING SOME
FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FAR NORTH LATE...BUT HAVE HELD OFF
MENTION UNTIL FRIDAY.
ON FRIDAY...EXPECT THE CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES IN
THE NORTH NEAR WRAPAROUND MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVE. THE REMAINDER OF
THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY WITH 850MB TEMPS COOLING TO AROUND -6C
BY AFTERNOON. THEREFORE EXPECT COOLER TEMPS THAN RECENT DAYS
ALTHOUGH STILL ABOVE NORMAL.
FOR SAT...TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY COOL WITH THE THREAT OF
CONTINUED SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES IN THE NORTH.
LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...
THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS WILL BE WARM TEMPS ON MON/TUE WITH MORE WARM
CHINOOK MODIFIED AIR. DID INCREASE TEMPS SOME BUT COULD BE EVEN
WARMER MON/TUE. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW TUE INTO
WED...WITH MUCH COLDER AIR AND WIND BEHIND THIS SYSTEM ON WED.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
ROGERS/DK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
704 AM EST THU JAN 5 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS
THE STATE THIS MORNING. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH
THE COMMONWEALTH TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A POTENT CLIPPER SYSTEM
TRACKING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND ADJACENT SOUTHEASTERN
CANADA. THIS SYSTEM WILL DRAW UNSEASONABLY MILD AIR INTO THE REGION
ACCOMPANIED BY BREEZY WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH DAYTIME HIGHS
AVERAGING WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS ON FRIDAY. THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS MAINLY DRY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
IR AND WATER VAPOR SHOWS A DISTINCT LINE OF CLOUDS AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT WHICH IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL PA. THIS IS AHEAD OF
A 500 MB TROUGH ACCORDING TO THE RUC WHICH WILL CONTINUE ITS
EASTWARD MOVEMENT. LOW STRATOCU WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE...ESPECIALLY THE NW MTNS AND THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS. BY THURSDAY MORNING EXPECT THE DOWNSLOPE EFFECT TO BEGIN
WITH CLOUDY SKIES BEGINNING TO CLEAR. LACK OF MOISTURE WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL REDUCE...IF NOT ELIMINATE ANY CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION. A WIND SHIFT TO THE WNW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DRAW
SOME MOISTURE OFF OF LK ERIE...RESULTING IN SCT -SHSN/FLURRIES ALONG
THE ALLEGHENY MTNS. INVERSION HGTS WILL REMAIN LOW /MAINLY ARND 5KFT
PER MDL SOUNDINGS/...SO EXPECT ANY ACCUMS TO BE LIMITED TO A
DUSTING. HAVE BROUGHT UP TEMPS AS THE LOW STRATO CU WILL LESSEN ANY
CHANCE FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP SIGNIFICANTLY TOWARDS MORNING. AS
STATED...EXPECT THE LOW STRATOCU TO BEGIN TO LIFT AS THE DAY
CONTINUES AND A WEAK RIDGE BEGINS TO CAUSE WARM AIR ADVECTION
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. THE ECMWF AND GFS TEMPS AT 850 MB TEMPS DIFFER
GREATLY. DOWNSLOPING WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY CAUSED BY A
PASSING JET STREAM...AND A DECENT 850MB GRADIENT WILL FILTER TO THE
SFC...DUE TO A WEAK INVERSION AND MIXING UP TO 1 TO 3KFT. GUSTY
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL FADE BY EARLY EVENING. ANY CLOUDS LEFT
WILL DRY AS THE EVENING CONTINUES WITH CLEARING SKIES BY FRIDAY
MORNING...THROUGH DUE TO THE PASSING OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
LOW ALONG THE US AND CANADIAN BORDER THE CLOUDS ALONG THE PA AND NY
BORDER WILL REMAIN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
ZONAL FLOW OF ESSENTIALLY A PACIFIC/MODIFIED CP AIRMASS WILL AFFECT
OUR LOCAL WEATHER THIS PERIOD AS A RATHER VIGOROUS SFC LOW MOVES ESE
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND SRN ONTARIO.
DRY...MILD CONDITIONS WITH VARYING AMOUNTS OF STRATO AND ALTO CU
WILL OCCUR WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE CLOUD COVER FOCUSED ACROSS THE
NRN AND WRN MTNS...WHERE WEST-SWRLY ISENTROPIC/OROGRAPHIC LIFT WILL
BE MAXIMIZED.
MAX TEMPS FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S ACROSS THE NRN
MTNS...AND 45 TO 50F ELSEWHERE WILL BE 10-12F ABOVE NORMAL IN THE
VALLEYS...AND AS MUCH AS 15-18F ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.
MIN TEMPS NEAR DAYBREAK SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID
30S...CONTINUING TO RESULT IN SIMILAR DEPARTURES ABOVE NORMAL.
SWRLY SFC WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 12-15KTS WITH GUSTS OVER 20 KTS BY
LATE FRIDAY MORNING. THE STRONGEST WIND GUSTS WILL LIKELY OCCUR
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU. LLVL WSWRLY
JET MAX OF 50-55KTS WILL CROSS THE REGION FRI AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
WIND GUSTS ON THE RIDGES COULD BE OVER 35 MPH IF THE ENVIRONMENT
STAYS WELL MIXED DUE TO AREAS OF CLOUD COVER. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED
TO FOCUS ON THIS WIND GUST POTENTIAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE COMMONWEALTH SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A
GLANCING BLOW OF A RELATIVELY SHALLOW/DRY COLD AIRMASS PRODUCING
NOTHING MORE THAN MAINLY FLURRIES WITH SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NW MTNS. PERHAPS A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL
OCCUR ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS NEAR AND JUST IN THE WAKE OF THE
CFROPA.
MAX TEMPS SATURDAY WILL STILL BE UNSEASONABLY MILD IN MOST
LOCATIONS...RANGING FROM AROUND 40F /DURING THE LATE MORNING ACROSS
THE NWN ZONES/...TO A BALMY 50F IN THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
THE CORE OF THE COLDER AIRMASS DRIFTS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY...WITH OCNL FLURRIES THROUGHOUT THE
CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION...AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS GIVING
A LIGHT COASTING TO SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN PART OF
THE STATE.
PARTIAL CLEARING SKIES /OR BETTER/ WILL TAKE PLACE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND TEMPS IN THE
925-850 MB LAYER WARM BY AT LEAST SEVERAL DEG C.
DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF CIRRUS SUNDAY NIGHT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE
STRETCHED ACROSS THE STATE COULD LEAD TO COLDER AND SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL MIN TEMPS IN THE MID TEENS NORTH...TO TO MID 20S ACROSS THE
LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
CONFLUENT...ZONAL UPPER FLOW AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA
WILL START THE NEW WEEK WITH MAX TEMPS MONDAY SEVERAL...TO AS MUCH
AS 10F ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE MTNS.
THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK NRN STREAM TROUGH WILL LIKELY ONLY HAVE THE
EFFECT OF INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND A WESTERLY BREEZE ON
TUESDAY.
ALL EYES THEN WILL FOCUS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR A FAIRLY MOISTURE
LADEN STORM HEADING OUR WAY FROM THE DEEP SOUTH WED INTO EARLY
THURSDAY. ATTM LLVL TEMP/THICKNESS PROFILES VIA THE GFS...GEFS AND
EC INDICATE MAINLY RAIN ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE STATE...AND FOR
THE FIRST HALF OF THE STORM ACRS THE NW PART OF PENN.
A BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR LOOKS IN STORE FOR LATER NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CLOUD BASES ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE WILL CONTINUE
TO LOWER AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES ITS PROGRESS TO THE EAST COAST.
BROAD LIFT AND WEAK UPSLOPE MAY CONTRIBUTE TO LGT SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES OVR WRN MTNS...WITH MVFR AND LCL IFR CONDS LKLY DEVELOPING
AT BFD/JST. WITH MVFR CIGS AT AOO AND UNV. LACK OF MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT SHOULD LIMIT ANY IFR CONDITIONS THOUGH
THEY REMAIN A POSSIBILITY. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN MVFR. ANY -SHSN
WILL TAPER OFF EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY PERSIST
OVR THE WRN MTNS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDS EAST
OF THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU DUE TO DOWNSLOPE WINDS WHICH WILL BE GUSTY
BEHIND THE FRONT. A WEAK TROF BEING DRIVEN BY THE JEST STREAM WILL
MOVE THROUGH BY MIDDAY THURSDAY BRINGING A STRONG TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT...AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL FLOW. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR GUSTY
WINDS TO ADVECT TO THE SURFACE THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY. WIND SHEAR IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOWER HALF OF CENTRAL PA FROM 06 TO 12Z
FRIDAY.
OUTLOOK...
THU-SUN...MVFR WEST/VFR EAST.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...CERU
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN
AVIATION...CERU/GARTNER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
531 AM EST THU JAN 5 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS
THE STATE THIS MORNING. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH
THE COMMONWEALTH TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A POTENT CLIPPER SYSTEM
TRACKING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND ADJACENT SOUTHEASTERN
CANADA. THIS SYSTEM WILL DRAW UNSEASONABLY MILD AIR INTO THE REGION
ACCOMPANIED BY BREEZY WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH DAYTIME HIGHS
AVERAGING WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS ON FRIDAY. THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS MAINLY DRY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
IR AND WATER VAPOR SHOWS A DISTINCT LINE OF CLOUDS AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT WHICH IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL PA. THIS IS AHEAD OF
A 500 MB TROUGH ACCORDING TO THE RUC WHICH WILL CONTINUE ITS
EASTWARD MOVEMENT. LOW STRATOCU WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE...ESPECIALLY THE NW MTNS AND THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS. BY THURSDAY MORNING EXPECT THE DOWNSLOPE EFFECT TO BEGIN
WITH CLOUDY SKIES BEGINNING TO CLEAR. LACK OF MOISTURE WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL REDUCE...IF NOT ELIMINATE ANY CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION. A WIND SHIFT TO THE WNW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DRAW
SOME MOISTURE OFF OF LK ERIE...RESULTING IN SCT -SHSN/FLURRIES ALONG
THE ALLEGHENY MTNS. INVERSION HGTS WILL REMAIN LOW /MAINLY ARND 5KFT
PER MDL SOUNDINGS/...SO EXPECT ANY ACCUMS TO BE LIMITED TO A
DUSTING. HAVE BROUGHT UP TEMPS AS THE LOW STRATO CU WILL LESSEN ANY
CHANCE FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP SIGNIFICANTLY TOWARDS MORNING. AS
STATED...EXPECT THE LOW STRATOCU TO BEGIN TO LIFT AS THE DAY
CONTINUES AND A WEAK RIDGE BEGINS TO CAUSE WARM AIR ADVECTION
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. THE ECMWF AND GFS TEMPS AT 850 MB TEMPS DIFFER
GREATLY. DOWNSLOPING WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY CAUSED BY A
PASSING JET STREAM...AND A DECENT 850MB GRADIENT WILL FILTER TO THE
SFC...DUE TO A WEAK INVERSION AND MIXING UP TO 1 TO 3KFT. GUSTY
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL FADE BY EARLY EVENING. ANY CLOUDS LEFT
WILL DRY AS THE EVENING CONTINUES WITH CLEARING SKIES BY FRIDAY
MORNING...THROUGH DUE TO THE PASSING OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
LOW ALONG THE US AND CANADIAN BORDER THE CLOUDS ALONG THE PA AND NY
BORDER WILL REMAIN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ZONAL FLOW OF ESSENTIALLY A PACIFIC/MODIFIED CP AIRMASS WILL AFFECT
OUR LOCAL WEATHER THIS PERIOD AS A RATHER VIGOROUS SFC LOW MOVES ESE
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND SRN ONTARIO.
DRY...MILD CONDITIONS WITH VARYING AMOUNTS OF STRATO AND ALTO CU
WILL OCCUR WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE CLOUD COVER FOCUSED ACROSS THE
NRN AND WRN MTNS...WHERE WEST-SWRLY ISENTROPIC/OROGRAPHIC LIFT WILL
BE MAXIMIZED.
MAX TEMPS FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S ACROSS THE NRN
MTNS...AND 45 TO 50F ELSEWHERE WILL BE 10-12F ABOVE NORMAL IN THE
VALLEYS...AND AS MUCH AS 15-18F ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.
MIN TEMPS NEAR DAYBREAK SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID
30S...CONTINUING TO RESULT IN SIMILAR DEPARTURES ABOVE NORMAL.
SWRLY SFC WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 12-15KTS WITH GUSTS OVER 20 KTS BY
LATE FRIDAY MORNING. THE STRONGEST WIND GUSTS WILL LIKELY OCCUR
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU. LLVL WSWRLY
JET MAX OF 50-55KTS WILL CROSS THE REGION FRI AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
WIND GUSTS ON THE RIDGES COULD BE OVER 35 MPH IF THE ENVIRONMENT
STAYS WELL MIXED DUE TO AREAS OF CLOUD COVER. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED
TO FOCUS ON THIS WIND GUST POTENTIAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE COMMONWEALTH SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A
GLANCING BLOW OF A RELATIVELY SHALLOW/DRY COLD AIRMASS PRODUCING
NOTHING MORE THAN MAINLY FLURRIES WITH SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NW MTNS. PERHAPS A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL
OCCUR ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS NEAR AND JUST IN THE WAKE OF THE
CFROPA.
MAX TEMPS SATURDAY WILL STILL BE UNSEASONABLY MILD IN MOST
LOCATIONS...RANGING FROM AROUND 40F /DURING THE LATE MORNING ACROSS
THE NWN ZONES/...TO A BALMY 50F IN THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
THE CORE OF THE COLDER AIRMASS DRIFTS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY...WITH OCNL FLURRIES THROUGHOUT THE
CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION...AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS GIVING
A LIGHT COASTING TO SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN PART OF
THE STATE.
PARTIAL CLEARING SKIES /OR BETTER/ WILL TAKE PLACE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND TEMPS IN THE
925-850 MB LAYER WARM BY AT LEAST SEVERAL DEG C.
DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF CIRRUS SUNDAY NIGHT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE
STRETCHED ACROSS THE STATE COULD LEAD TO COLDER AND SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL MIN TEMPS IN THE MID TEENS NORTH...TO TO MID 20S ACROSS THE
LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
CONFLUENT...ZONAL UPPER FLOW AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA
WILL START THE NEW WEEK WITH MAX TEMPS MONDAY SEVERAL...TO AS MUCH
AS 10F ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE MTNS.
THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK NRN STREAM TROUGH WILL LIKELY ONLY HAVE THE
EFFECT OF INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND A WESTERLY BREEZE ON
TUESDAY.
ALL EYES THEN WILL FOCUS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR A FAIRLY MOISTURE
LADEN STORM HEADING OUR WAY FROM THE DEEP SOUTH WED INTO EARLY
THURSDAY. ATTM LLVL TEMP/THICKNESS PROFILES VIA THE GFS...GEFS AND
EC INDICATE MAINLY RAIN ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE STATE...AND FOR
THE FIRST HALF OF THE STORM ACRS THE NW PART OF PENN.
A BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR LOOKS IN STORE FOR LATER NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CLOUD BASES ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE WILL CONTINUE
TO LOWER AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES ITS PROGRESS TO THE EAST COAST.
BROAD LIFT AND WEAK UPSLOPE MAY CONTRIBUTE TO LGT SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES OVR WRN MTNS...WITH MVFR AND LCL IFR CONDS LKLY DEVELOPING
AT BFD/JST. WITH MVFR CIGS AT AOO AND UNV. LACK OF MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT SHOULD LIMIT ANY IFR CONDITIONS THOUGH
THEY REMAIN A POSSIBILITY. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN MVFR. ANY -SHSN
WILL TAPER OFF EARLY THUR MORNING. LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY PERSIST
OVR THE WRN MTNS DURING THE DAY THURS. EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDS EAST
OF THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU DUE TO DOWNSLOPE WINDS WHICH WILL BE GUSTY
BEHIND THE FRONT. A WEAK TROF BEING DRIVEN BY THE JEST STREAM WILL
MOVE THROUGH BY MIDDAY THURSDAY BRINGING A STRONG TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT...AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL FLOW. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR GUSTY
WINDS TO ADVECT TO THE SURFACE THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY. WIND SHEAR IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOWER HALF OF CENTRAL PA FROM 00Z TO 06Z FRIDAY.
HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW SO HAVE LEFT IT OUT OF THE TAFS.
OUTLOOK...
THU-SUN...MVFR WEST/VFR EAST.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...CERU
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT
AVIATION...CERU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
457 AM EST THU JAN 5 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EASTWARD
ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE COMMONWEALTH TOMORROW NIGHT IN
ADVANCE OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CANADA.
THIS SYSTEM WILL DRAW UNSEASONABLY MILD AIR INTO THE REGION BEHIND
BREEZY WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH LATE WEEK WITH DAYTIME HIGHS
AVERAGING WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS ON FRIDAY. THE WEEKEND LOOKS
SEASONABLY COLD AND MAINLY DRY WITH MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER
POSSIBLE INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
IR AND WATER VAPOR SHOWS A DISTINCT LINE OF CLOUDS AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT WHICH IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL PA. THIS IS AHEAD OF
A 500 MB TROUGH ACCORDING TO THE RUC WHICH WILL CONTINUE ITS
EASTWARD MOVEMENT. LOW STRATOCU WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE...ESPECIALLY THE NW MTNS AND THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS. BY THURSDAY MORNING EXPECT THE DOWNSLOPE EFFECT TO BEGIN
WITH CLOUDY SKIES BEGINNING TO CLEAR. LACK OF MOISTURE WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL REDUCE...IF NOT ELIMINATE ANY CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION. A WIND SHIFT TO THE WNW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DRAW
SOME MOISTURE OFF OF LK ERIE...RESULTING IN SCT -SHSN/FLURRIES ALONG
THE ALLEGHENY MTNS. INVERSION HGTS WILL REMAIN LOW /MAINLY ARND 5KFT
PER MDL SOUNDINGS/...SO EXPECT ANY ACCUMS TO BE LIMITED TO A
DUSTING. HAVE BROUGHT UP TEMPS AS THE LOW STRATO CU WILL LESSEN ANY
CHANCE FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP SIGNIFICANTLY TOWARDS MORNING. AS
STATED...EXPECT THE LOW STRATOCU TO BEGIN TO LIFT AS THE DAY
CONTINUES AND A WEAK RIDGE BEGINS TO CAUSE WARM AIR ADVECTION
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. THE ECMWF AND GFS TEMPS AT 850 MB TEMPS DIFFER
GREATLY. DOWNSLOPING WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY CAUSED BY A
PASSING JET STREAM...AND A DECENT 850MB GRADIENT WILL FILTER TO THE
SFC...DUE TO A WEAK INVERSION AND MIXING UP TO 1 TO 3KFT. GUSTY
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL FADE BY EARLY EVENING. ANY CLOUDS LEFT
WILL DRY AS THE EVENING CONTINUES WITH CLEARING SKIES BY FRIDAY
MORNING...THROUGH DUE TO THE PASSING OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
LOW ALONG THE US AND CANADIAN BORDER THE CLOUDS ALONG THE PA AND NY
BORDER WILL REMAIN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ZONAL FLOW OF ESSENTIALLY A PACIFIC/MODIFIED CP AIRMASS WILL AFFECT
OUR LOCAL WEATHER THIS PERIOD AS A RATHER VIGOROUS SFC LOW MOVES ESE
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND SRN ONTARIO.
DRY...MILD CONDITIONS WITH VARYING AMOUNTS OF STRATO AND ALTO CU
WILL OCCUR WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE CLOUD COVER FOCUSED ACROSS THE
NRN AND WRN MTNS...WHERE WEST-SWRLY ISENTROPIC/OROGRAPHIC LIFT WILL
BE MAXIMIZED.
MAX TEMPS FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S ACROSS THE NRN
MTNS...AND 45 TO 50F ELSEWHERE WILL BE 10-12F ABOVE NORMAL IN THE
VALLEYS...AND AS MUCH AS 15-18F ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.
MIN TEMPS NEAR DAYBREAK SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID
30S...CONTINUING TO RESULT IN SIMILAR DEPARTURES ABOVE NORMAL.
SWRLY SFC WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 12-15KTS WITH GUSTS OVER 20 KTS BY
LATE FRIDAY MORNING. THE STRONGEST WIND GUSTS WILL LIKELY OCCUR
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU. LLVL WSWRLY
JET MAX OF 50-55KTS WILL CROSS THE REGION FRI AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
WIND GUSTS ON THE RIDGES COULD BE OVER 35 MPH IF THE ENVIRONMENT
STAYS WELL MIXED DUE TO AREAS OF CLOUD COVER. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED
TO FOCUS ON THIS WIND GUST POTENTIAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE COMMONWEALTH SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A
GLANCING BLOW OF A RELATIVELY SHALLOW/DRY COLD AIRMASS PRODUCING
NOTHING MORE THAN MAINLY FLURRIES WITH SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NW MTNS. PERHAPS A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL
OCCUR ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS NEAR AND JUST IN THE WAKE OF THE
CFROPA.
MAX TEMPS SATURDAY WILL STILL BE UNSEASONABLY MILD IN MOST
LOCATIONS...RANGING FROM AROUND 40F /DURING THE LATE MORNING ACROSS
THE NWN ZONES/...TO A BALMY 50F IN THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
THE CORE OF THE COLDER AIRMASS DRIFTS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY...WITH OCNL FLURRIES THROUGHOUT THE
CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION...AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS GIVING
A LIGHT COASTING TO SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN PART OF
THE STATE.
PARTIAL CLEARING SKIES /OR BETTER/ WILL TAKE PLACE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND TEMPS IN THE
925-850 MB LAYER WARM BY AT LEAST SEVERAL DEG C.
DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF CIRRUS SUNDAY NIGHT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE
STRETCHED ACROSS THE STATE COULD LEAD TO COLDER AND SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL MIN TEMPS IN THE MID TEENS NORTH...TO TO MID 20S ACROSS THE
LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
CONFLUENT...ZONAL UPPER FLOW AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA
WILL START THE NEW WEEK WITH MAX TEMPS MONDAY SEVERAL...TO AS MUCH
AS 10F ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE MTNS.
THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK NRN STREAM TROUGH WILL LIKELY ONLY HAVE THE
EFFECT OF INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND A WESTERLY BREEZE ON
TUESDAY.
ALL EYES THEN WILL FOCUS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR A FAIRLY MOISTURE
LADEN STORM HEADING OUR WAY FROM THE DEEP SOUTH WED INTO EARLY
THURSDAY. ATTM LLVL TEMP/THICKNESS PROFILES VIA THE GFS...GEFS AND
EC INDICATE MAINLY RAIN ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE STATE...AND FOR
THE FIRST HALF OF THE STORM ACRS THE NW PART OF PENN.
A BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR LOOKS IN STORE FOR LATER NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CLOUD BASES ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE WILL CONTINUE
TO LOWER AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES ITS PROGRESS TO THE EAST COAST.
BROAD LIFT AND WEAK UPSLOPE MAY CONTRIBUTE TO LGT SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES OVR WRN MTNS...WITH MVFR AND LCL IFR CONDS LKLY DEVELOPING
AT BFD/JST. WITH MVFR CIGS AT AOO AND UNV. LACK OF MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT SHOULD LIMIT ANY IFR CONDITIONS THOUGH
THEY REMAIN A POSSIBILITY. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN MVFR. ANY -SHSN
WILL TAPER OFF EARLY THUR MORNING. LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY PERSIST
OVR THE WRN MTNS DURING THE DAY THURS. EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDS EAST
OF THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU DUE TO DOWNSLOPE WINDS WHICH WILL BE GUSTY
BEHIND THE FRONT. A WEAK TROF BEING DRIVEN BY THE JEST STREAM WILL
MOVE THROUGH BY MIDDAY THURSDAY BRINGING A STRONG TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT...AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL FLOW. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR GUSTY
WINDS TO ADVECT TO THE SURFACE THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY. WIND SHEAR IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOWER HALF OF CENTRAL PA FROM 00Z TO 06Z FRIDAY.
HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW SO HAVE LEFT IT OUT OF THE TAFS.
OUTLOOK...
THU-SUN...MVFR WEST/VFR EAST.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...CERU
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN
AVIATION...CERU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NWS RAPID CITY SD
516 PM MST FRI JAN 6 2012
.AVIATION...00Z TAFS
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 217 PM MST FRI JAN 6 2012/
DISCUSSION...
VERY FLAT LONG WAVE RIDGE IS AT ABOUT 125W THIS MORNING WITH
LARGELY ZONAL FLOW FROM THE DATE LINE TO THE EAST COAST OF THE US.
SHORT WAVE TROFS WERE NEAR LAKE WG AND SOUTH WEST WARD AND
APPROACHING THE WEST COAST OF CANADA. LONG WAVE RIDGE WILL REBUILD
AS THE SHORT WAVE TROF MOVES EAST WARD...SPLITTING INTO TWO PARTS.
THE SOUTHERN PORTION HEADS FOR AZ/NM WHILE THE NORTHERN PORTION
MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND LARGELY SHEARS OUT.
THE 1000 TO 500 MB MEAN TEMPERATURE ANOMALY AT RAPID CITY THIS
MORNING IS ABOUT +3C WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS OVER NORTH
WEST MT. THE ONLY REALLY COLD AIR LIES OVER WESTERN AK.
THE NORTHERN SHORT WAVE TROF CROSSES OUR AREA SUNDAY AM WITH
LITTLE INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER.
BRISK WINDS HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES DOWN TODAY...BUT WILL BE QUICK
TO DIE OFF THIS EVENING AS PRESSURES RISE TO THE EAST AND BEGIN TO
FALL A BIT TO THE WEST CUTTING BACK ON THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE QUICK TO FALL DURING THE EVENING HOURS...BUT INCREASING
MOISTURE EVIDENT ON THE WATER VAPOR LOOP AND A BIT OF WARM
ADVECTION AT 700 MB WILL LEAD TO SOME INCREASE IN HIGH AND MID
CLOUDINESS LATER TONIGHT LIKELY SLOWING TEMPERATURE FALLS EARLY AM.
BOTH NAM AND RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE
AND CLOUDINESS.
DRYING IS SHOWN ON THE SOUNDINGS LATE SATURDAY EVENING IN SPITE OF
APPROACH OF THE SHORT WAVE TROF. SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN QUITE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
EXTENDED...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CROSSES THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH
TUESDAY. STRONG UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE AREA TUESDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS SEEM TO BE TRENDING EARLIER WITH THE
TIMING...SO WILL WATCH FOR POP ADJUSTMENTS. SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST
QUICKLY WITH AREA REMAINING UNDER FAST NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH
MIDWEEK. BOTH GFS AND EC TRY TO BUILD WESTERN RIDGE BACK ACROSS THE
ROCKIES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...WFO UNR
LONG TERM....WFO UNR
AVIATION...HELGESON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ABERDEEN SD
511 AM CST THU JAN 5 2012
.UPDATE...
UPDATE TO AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY
THE FORECAST CHALLENGE CENTERS ON TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.
CURRENTLY...TEMPERATURES ARE MAINLY IN THE 20S AND 30S AS
SCATTERED CIRRUS CLOUDS SPILL INTO THE CWA FROM THE NORTHWEST.
VERY WARM AIR JUST OFF THE SURFACE...PER RUC 925HPA THERMAL PROGS
SHOWING +9C TO +18C AIR OVERHEAD.
CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BE AROUND TODAY. HOWEVER...NOT SO
CONCERNED WITH THEIR INHIBITING RECORD OR NEAR RECORD WARMTH FROM
OCCURRING TODAY. PER PNSABR PRODUCT...COULD BE SETTING SOME
ALL-TIME RECORD HIGHS FOR THE MONTH OF JANUARY TODAY AS WELL. STAY
TUNED.
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MAINLY
TONIGHT...WITH SOMEWHAT STRONGER NWRLY SFC WINDS DEVELOPING LATE
TONIGHT AND DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY WHEN LOW LEVEL WEAK CAA WILL
BE OCCURRING. BREEZY TO WINDY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE COVERED IN THE
WIND GRIDS.
SO...WITH A DRY FORECAST PERSISTING THROUGH THE SHORT
RANGE...TODAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST OF THE NEXT THREE
DAYS...WITH NOTABLY COOLER /BUT STILL ABOVE CLIMO NORMAL/
CONDITIONS SETTING UP FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
DECENT AGREEMENT EXISTS WITH LONGWAVE PATTERN THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK...WITH SOME SPREAD IN HANDLING OF A MODEST ARCTIC
BLAST FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. BUT BEFORE THE BOTTOM
DROPS OUT ON OUR MILD JANUARY...WILL SEE DECENT WARM ADVECTION AND
EFFICIENT MIXING FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. H85 TEMPERATURES TOP
6C...A STANDARD DEVIATION ABOVE CLIMO. AS OF YET...NO PRECIP WITH
THIS PATTERN SO WITH DRY GROUND...MAX TEMPERATURES COULD MAKE A RUN
AT RECORDS AGAIN THOSE DAYS. A RATHER COMPACT...STRONG WAVE WILL
MOVE ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY PM...THOUGH PRECIPITATION SHOULD
REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION. MORE IMPORTANTLY...COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM BRINGS AN ARCTIC AIRMASS INTO
THE NORTHERN CONUS. MAIN ISSUE THIS LATE IN THE PERIOD IS THE
TEMPERATURES IN THE CORE OF COLDEST AIR...AND THE STEERING FLOW
FOR THE AIRMASS...WHICH WILL DETERMINE IN LATER FORECASTS THE
DURATION OF THIS COLD SNAP.
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. WIND WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 10-15KTS OUT OF
THE WEST/NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DORN
LONG TERM...CONNELLY
AVIATION...CONNELLY
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ABERDEEN SD
241 AM CST THU JAN 5 2012
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY
THE FORECAST CHALLENGE CENTERS ON TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.
CURRENTLY...TEMPERATURES ARE MAINLY IN THE 20S AND 30S AS
SCATTERED CIRRUS CLOUDS SPILL INTO THE CWA FROM THE NORTHWEST.
VERY WARM AIR JUST OFF THE SURFACE...PER RUC 925HPA THERMAL PROGS
SHOWING +9C TO +18C AIR OVERHEAD.
CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BE AROUND TODAY. HOWEVER...NOT SO
CONCERNED WITH THEIR INHIBITING RECORD OR NEAR RECORD WARMTH FROM
OCCURRING TODAY. PER PNSABR PRODUCT...COULD BE SETTING SOME
ALL-TIME RECORD HIGHS FOR THE MONTH OF JANUARY TODAY AS WELL. STAY
TUNED.
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MAINLY
TONIGHT...WITH SOMEWHAT STRONGER NWRLY SFC WINDS DEVELOPING LATE
TONIGHT AND DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY WHEN LOW LEVEL WEAK CAA WILL
BE OCCURRING. BREEZY TO WINDY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE COVERED IN THE
WIND GRIDS.
SO...WITH A DRY FORECAST PERSISTING THROUGH THE SHORT
RANGE...TODAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST OF THE NEXT THREE
DAYS...WITH NOTABLY COOLER /BUT STILL ABOVE CLIMO NORMAL/
CONDITIONS SETTING UP FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
DECENT AGREEMENT EXISTS WITH LONGWAVE PATTERN THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK...WITH SOME SPREAD IN HANDLING OF A MODEST ARCTIC
BLAST FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. BUT BEFORE THE BOTTOM
DROPS OUT ON OUR MILD JANUARY...WILL SEE DECENT WARM ADVECTION AND
EFFICIENT MIXING FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. H85 TEMPERATURES TOP
6C...A STANDARD DEVIATION ABOVE CLIMO. AS OF YET...NO PRECIP WITH
THIS PATTERN SO WITH DRY GROUND...MAX TEMPERATURES COULD MAKE A RUN
AT RECORDS AGAIN THOSE DAYS. A RATHER COMPACT...STRONG WAVE WILL
MOVE ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY PM...THOUGH PRECIPITATION SHOULD
REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION. MORE IMPORTANTLY...COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM BRINGS AN ARCTIC AIRMASS INTO
THE NORTHERN CONUS. MAIN ISSUE THIS LATE IN THE PERIOD IS THE
TEMPERATURES IN THE CORE OF COLDEST AIR...AND THE STEERING FLOW
FOR THE AIRMASS...WHICH WILL DETERMINE IN LATER FORECASTS THE
DURATION OF THIS COLD SNAP.
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT ALL TERMINALS FOR TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DORN
LONG TERM...CONNELLY
AVIATION...MOHR
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
409 AM EST SAT JAN 7 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED SOUTH OF THE AREA INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK COLD FRONT SAGS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL TEMPORARILY BUILD ACROSS THE
AREA TUESDAY BEFORE LOW PRESSURE AND ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT
IMPACT THE REGION WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EVENTUALLY BUILD
FROM THE WEST THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
GOES-EAST FOG IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE AN
EXPANDING AREA OF DENSE FOG WITH ORIGINS FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO
IS RAPIDLY EXPANDING NORTH/NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND
FAR SOUTHERN GEORGIA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
FOG BANK IS MOVING NORTHEAST AROUND 15 KT AND TIMED TO REACH THE
ALTAMAHA RIVER JUST BEFORE SUNRISE. RUC VISIBILITY PROGS APPEAR TO
HAVE INITIALIZED THE POSITIONING OF THE FOG THE BEST AND SHOWS
VISIBILITIES OF 1/4 MILE OR LESS REACHING AS FAR NORTH AS THE
METTER-PEMBROKE-RICHMOND HILL CORRIDOR BY 9 AM. THIS SEEMS QUITE
REASONABLE GIVEN HOW THE FOG BANK IS EVOLVING WITH TIME. PLAN TO
INTRODUCE AREAS OF FOG IN THE GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT
TRENDS...BUT A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY VERY WELL BE NEEDED PRIOR TO
DAYBREAK FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. IT
APPEARS DENSE FOG WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE SAVANNAH METRO
AREA...BUT THIS WILL BE WATCHED CAREFULLY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
A POTENT SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION
TODAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THERE MAY BE
JUST ENOUGH WEAK ISENTROPIC ASSENT ALONG THE 295-300K SURFACES TO
SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA FROM
LATE MORNING THROUGH MID-LATE AFTERNOON SO WILL SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR AREAS ROUGHLY SOUTH OF I-16 TODAY. THIS
SCENARIO IS WELL SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST SREF MEAN AS WELL AS
SEVERAL MEMBERS OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODEL SUITE INCLUDING THE
H3R AND 4KM-WRF. WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER
WARM DAY FOR EARLY JANUARY WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT AROUND 70 FOR
MOST LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE BEACHES. THE COLDER SHELF WATERS WILL
KEEP BEACH LOCATIONS CONSIDERABLY COOLER WITH THE NAM/GFS BASED
GUIDANCE PACKAGES FOR FOLLY BEACH...HILTON HEAD AND FORT PULASKI
FAVORING ANOTHER DAY WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO REACH 60 DEGREES.
CIRRUS MOVING OVER SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA THIS MORNING WILL CLEAR
OUT BY SUNRISE...BUT THE INCOMING FOG BANK WILL LIKELY LEAD TO LOW
CIGS ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA THROUGH AT LEAST MID-
MORNING. THE FOG IS EXPECTED TO LIFT INTO A CUMULUS FIELD BY MID-
LATE MORNING AS ANOTHER BOUT OF CIRRUS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SHORTWAVE ITSELF CROSSES THE AREA. THIS WILL YIELD A FAIRLY
COMPLICATED CLOUD COVER FORECAST FOR TODAY. HAVE TRIED TO DEPICT
SKY TRENDS WITH AS MUCH DETAIL AS POSSIBLE IN THE GRIDDED
FORECASTS...BUT ADJUSTMENTS--SOME POTENTIALLY LARGE--WILL BE
NEEDED AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT AND IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE
THROUGH SUNRISE SUNDAY. WEAK RIDGING IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE SHOULD HELP KEEP CONDITIONS DRY
OVERNIGHT WITH ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY LIKELY REMAINING WELL TO THE
WEST COINCIDENT WITH STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL JET.
THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR TONIGHT IS FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER
BOUT OF DENSE FOG ADVECTING IN FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN ZONES DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
SUNDAY. RAW VISIBILITY OUTPUT FROM THE NAM-12 KEEPS THE CORE OF
THE DENSE FOG WELL TO THE SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA...HOWEVER
BOTH THE GFS AND NAM-BASED STATISTICAL GUIDANCE SHOW SEVERAL HOURS
OF DENSE FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES. SUSPECT THE
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE MAY BE TRENDING IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION...
ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING HOW THE FOG IS EVOLVING THIS MORNING. PLAN
TO HIGHLIGHT PATCHY FOG ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES
TO TREND AND INCLUDE A MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...
BUT LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO HIT THE COVERAGE HARDER WITH
SUBSEQUENT FORECAST PACKAGES. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S
INLAND TO THE LOWER-MID 50S AT THE COAST.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE FORECAST DETAILS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY
DEPEND HEAVILY ON THE LOCATION OF THE LINGERING COLD FRONT TO THE
NORTHWEST. NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ON SUNDAY WILL ALLOW VARIOUS
IMPULSES TO EJECT EAST/NORTHEAST FROM THE STRONG CUT-OFF LOW OVER
TEXAS. THIS SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL
FORCING ALONG THE STALLED FRONT...AND WHEN COMBINED WITH
ASSOCIATED DEEP MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE...WILL SUPPORT A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS INLAND LOCATIONS ON SUNDAY.
THE MAJORITY OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ARRIVES SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...BEFORE TRANSIENT UPPER RIDGING BUILDS DOWNSTREAM OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED TEXAS LOW SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH MODEL SOLUTIONS DIFFER
IN SOME DETAILS...LATEST THINKING IS THAT THE ADDITIONAL ENERGY
WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW PRESSURE WAVE ALONG THE
LINGERING FRONT. AS THE SURFACE WAVE TRACKS ALONG THE BOUNDARY
AND OFF THE COAST...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE INTO THE
30 PERCENT RANGE FOR THE FAR NORTHWEST TIER COUNTIES CLOSEST TO
THE WAVERING FRONT. RIDGING WILL THEN QUICKLY DEVELOP MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WHILE THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS OFFSHORE
AND THE BOUNDARY DISSIPATES. A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL COULD OCCUR LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL CONTINUE TO RANGE WELL
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REFLECT A SLIGHT
NORTHWEST/SOUTHEAST GRADIENT DUE TO THE LINGERING FRONT...WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S INLAND AND NORTH TO THE LOW 70S
NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.
TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BRIEFLY BUILDS
OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE POTENT LOW SYSTEM
TRACKING EAST ALONG THE GULF COAST STATES. CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY BE
INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST...WHILE RAIN POTENTIAL ALSO INCREASES
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY WILL REMAIN DRY UNDER THE TRANSIENT RIDGING. SOUTH/SOUTHEAST
SURFACE FLOW AND RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...DESPITE THICKENING SKY COVER.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A
POTENT UPPER LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE SYSTEM QUICKLY SHIFT
FROM THE GULF COAST STATES TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING AND COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO INCREASE WITH
BETTER NUMERICAL MODEL AGREEMENT...AND HAVE BUMPED UP POPS
ACCORDINGLY. WILL ADVERTISE BEST RAIN POTENTIAL FOR WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND AFTERNOON...WHEN LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST A COLD
FRONT WILL BE SWEEPING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA.
DYNAMICS WITH THIS LOW SYSTEM CONTINUE TO LOOK QUITE IMPRESSIVE
LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AS A 110 KT UPPER JET AND 40 KT
LOW LEVEL JET SHIFTS THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THE MAIN
QUESTION REMAINS WHETHER LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT
TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...AND CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS AT THIS TIME. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE
WARMER THAN NORMAL INTO MID WEEK...AND AN AFTERNOON FRONTAL
PASSAGE COULD BE MORE FAVORABLE...EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND BETTER
RAIN COVERAGE COULD SUPPRESS INSTABILITY. IT SHOULD ALSO BE NOTED
THAT LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THIS COMPLEX SYSTEM REMAINS GENERALLY
SOUTHEAST/SOUTH...WHICH MAY NOT BE AS FAVORABLE FOR SETTING UP
INSTABILITY. MODEL TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE CAREFULLY MONITORED
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...HOWEVER PREFER TO STILL KEEP THUNDER
OUT OF THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME...LEANING MORE TOWARD A
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND POSSIBLE GUSTY WIND EVENT.
THE COLD FRONT WILL RAPIDLY MOVE OFF THE COAST LATE
WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. A SECONDARY DRY FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH FOLLOWS IN THE WAKE
OF THE EARLIER SHORTWAVE. A DECENT COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED
THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY AS A RESULT...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING
MORE TOWARD SEASONAL NORMALS. WILL MAINTAIN RAIN FREE CONDITIONS
THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CAREFULLY WATCHING AN EXPANDING FOG
BANK ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA. CURRENT TRENDS AND SHORT TERM MODEL
DATA SUGGEST THE FOG WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF KSAV...BUT THIS WILL BE
CAREFULLY WATCHED.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS
POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. LOW PRESSURE AND ITS TRAILING COLD
FRONT WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS NEXT WEDNESDAY WITH PERIODIC MVFR
OR LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. WIND SHEAR AND/OR GUSTY WINDS COULD
ALSO BECOME A CONCERN DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.MARINE...
QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A GENERAL SOUTHWEST
FLOW DOMINATING. CAREFULLY WATCHING DENSE FOG APPROACHING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WHICH MAY INFILTRATE THE GEORGIA NEARSHORE WATERS OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. MAY NEED A MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY
BEFORE SUNRISE. COULD SEE ANOTHER BOUT OF FOG MOVE INTO THE MARINE
AREAS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LIGHT WINDS
GENERALLY 10 TO 15 KT WILL PREVAIL WITHIN A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT. THERE WILL BE CONSIDERABLE VARIATIONS IN WIND
DIRECTION DUE TO AFTERNOON/EVENING SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS...THE
NOCTURNAL LAND BREEZE CIRCULATIONS...AND A WEAK COLD FRONT
DROPPING INTO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS ARE THEN ANTICIPATED
DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK IN ASSOCIATION WITH A MUCH STRONGER
FRONTAL SYSTEM. DEPENDENT UPON THE EVOLUTION OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE GULF COAST STATES AND APPALACHIANS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
329 AM CST SAT JAN 7 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE THAT SWEPT THE COOL FRONT THROUGH THE REGION
YESTERDAY WAS OVER SE ONTARIO EARLY THIS MORNING. MSAS ANALYSIS
INDICATED A TROUGH EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM THE LOW ACROSS UPPER MI
INTO NORTHERN WI AND CENTRAL MN. SURFACE REPORTS AND SATELLITE FOG
CHANNEL IMAGERY INDICATED A LARGE AREA OF LOW CLOUDS ALONG AND
NORTH OF THIS AXIS OF CYCLONIC FLOW...AND JUST BEHIND THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR CHANNEL EXTENDING FROM
EASTERN UPPER MI TO NORTHERN IL. AT 08Z...THE RAGGED LEADING EDGE
OF THE LOW CLOUDS REACHED FROM THE N CENTRAL IA/MN BORDER TO NEAR
LA CROSSE...AND WAS EXPANDING SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA
AROUND 25 MPH. ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OUT AHEAD OF THE CLOUD
DECK...UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT W-NW WINDS...
TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
INITIAL FOCUS IS ON CLOUD TRENDS THIS MORNING. DISTANCE TIME TOOL
PLACES THE LEADING EDGE OF THESE CLOUDS INTO THE HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR
IN EASTERN IA AROUND 7 AM. THIS IS CLOSE TO THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
LATEST RUC DEPICTION OF HIGHER MOISTURE IN THE 900-950 LAYER
THAT IS SHOWN SPREADING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST OVER THE ROUGHLY THE
NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MIDDAY. THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST EXTENT MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE BASED ON THE WEAKENING LOW
LEVEL TROUGH AND LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE ANTICYCLONIC TODAY
OVER ESPECIALLY THE WEST AS HIGH PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS
SPREADS EASTWARD. CONSIDERING THIS...AND WITH SUPPORT FROM THE
LATEST VSREF CIG PROBS...WILL HAVE SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY
EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF EASTERN IA AND NW
IL...FOLLOWED BY CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...WILL HAVE
HIGH CLOUDS MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES SPREADING INTO THE AREA FROM
LATE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.
WITH MORE CLOUDS IN THE NORTH...WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S...WHILE
THE SOUTH SHOULD PUSH THE HIGHER END OF GUIDANCE IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S. OVERNIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE
AREA BY SUNRISE. HIGH CLOUD COVER SHOULD CONTAIN TEMPERATURES
DESPITE THE COOL DRY AIRMASS AND LIGHT WINDS. PREVIOUS FORECAST
LOWS FROM THE MID 20S NORTH TO AROUND 30 LOOKED REASONABLE AND
MADE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS. ..SHEETS..
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY...
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WE REMAIN BETWEEN SYSTEMS AS THE SPLIT FLOW
REGIME WE HAVE BEEN SEEING A LOT OF LATELY AFFECTS THE CONUS. IN THE
SOUTHERN STREAM THERE IS A CUT OFF LOW THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST CONUS...WITH A FASTER MOVING SHORTWAVE RIPPLING ACROSS THE
US/CANADIAN BORDER AND DIPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM CUT OFF LOW
PASSES ACROSS THE MIDWEST ON MONDAY. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WE HAVE
HAD SOME COLDER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES...BUT ONCE IT PASSES WE
SHOULD GET WARM AIR ADVECTION AS RIDGING TO THE WEST ALLOWS WARMER
AIR TO SURGE INTO THE AREA AT THE MID LEVELS. THIS SHOULD ALSO
PRODUCE A MUCH WARMER DAY ON TUESDAY OVER SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS 850MB
TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE POSITIVE 4-6 DEGREE RANGE AFTER HAVING
BEEN LINGERING AROUND NEGATIVE 4 FOR SUNDAY...ONLY SLOWLY WARMING TO
0 TO NEGATIVE 2 FOR MONDAY. THUS...HAVE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IN
TEMPS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH A MORE SIGNIFICANT WARM UP FOR
TUESDAY.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY THINGS GET A BIT MORE INTERESTING...BUT
ALSO UNCERTAIN. AS THE SOUTHERN STREAM CUT OFF LOW SLOWLY WORKS OFF
TO THE EAST ALONG THE GULF COAST...THE MODELS BRING DOWN A FAIRLY
STRONG TROUGH OUT OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND BRING IT DOWN ACROSS
THE MIDWEST ON WEDNESDAY...BRINGING MUCH COLDER AIR AND SOME
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. HOWEVER...THE MODELS HAVE SOME FAIRLY
SIGNIFICANT DISCREPANCIES IN TIMING AND STRENGTH AND IN RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY AT THIS TIME. THE LATEST 00Z ECMWF CAME IN WITH A MUCH
STRONGER SOLUTION THAN PREVIOUS OR OTHER MODELS...AND AM VIEWING
THIS RATHER PESSIMISTIC SOLUTION WITH SKEPTICISM. EITHER WAY...WE
ARE LOOKING A NOTICEABLE COOL DOWN FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT. MOISTURE MAY BE A LIMITING FACTOR
FOR ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND HAVE KEPT POPS
NEGLIGIBLE AT THIS TIME...THOUGH ANTICIPATE THAT THEY MAY NEED TO BE
RAISED. FRIDAY THERE IS SOME RECOVERY IN THE TEMPERATURES BEHIND
THE WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY SYSTEM...BUT MUCH IS GOING TO DEPEND ON WHAT
THAT SYSTEM DOES BEFORE WE CAN HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE IN THE FRIDAY
FORECAST. ..LE..
&&
.AVIATION...
AREA OF LOW CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF MN AND WESTERN WI ASSOCIATED WITH A
SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING. AT THE CURRENT RATE...THE CLOUDS WITH BASES
AROUND 20 KFT TO 25 KFT WOULD REACH DBQ AROUND 15Z AND CID AFTER
16Z. CURRENT FORECASTS HAVE ONLY SCATTERED CLOUDS AT THIS TIME...AND
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS FOR POSSIBLE UPGRADE TO MVFR CIGS AT
DBQ AND CID FOR LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. ANY LOW CLOUDS
THAT DO REACH THE AREA WOULD LIKELY DISSIPATE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS SPREADS
EASTWARD. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH ONLY HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED. ..SHEETS..
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SHEETS/LE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS PADUCAH KY
1135 PM CST FRI JAN 6 2012
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 919 PM CST FRI JAN 6 2012/
UPDATE...
INTERIM FORECAST UPDATE TO ADDRESS NEAR TERM CLOUD
COVER...TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION ISSUES OVER SOUTHERN
PENNYRILE.
NEAR TERM...
MAIN ADJUSTMENT FOR THIS EVENING WAS TO ADJUST THE SPATIAL
COVERAGE OF THE OPAQUE CLOUD COVER AND SLOWED THE TIMING OF
NORTHWARD TRANSPORT OF THIS CLOUD COVER DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
SIMILAR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO SLOW THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SLIGHTLY
/1-2 HOURS/ AND INCREASE DEWPOINTS /1-2 DEGREES/ A LITTLE FASTER
/1-2 HOURS/. FINALLY...MADE SOME TEMPORAL ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
INFLUX OF HIGHER POPS INTO THE EXTREME SOUTHER PENNYRILE OVERNIGHT.
THE 12KM NAM-WRF/5KM DOWNGRADE VERSION OF THE NAM-WRF/13KM RUC AND
SREF GUIDANCE APPEARED TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE
MOISTURE/WIND/MASS FIELDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS PERIOD...SO
THIS GUIDANCE WAS INCORPORATED INTO THE FIRST PERIOD FORECAST UPDATE.
PREV DISCUSSION...
DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 240 PM CST FRI JAN 6 2012/
ANOTHER QUIET DAY TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL. MOST
IF NOT ALL STATIONS REPORTED AT LEAST 60 DEGREES OR ABOVE. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...NOW STRETCHING ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN DOWN INTO
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...WILL CONTINUE HEADING OUR WAY. MOISTURE IS
ALREADY SURGING NORTHWARD AS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE/OBSERVATIONS. WE
SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE THIS MOISTURE MOVE NORTHWARD THE REST OF
TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...LEADING TO AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. THE FRONT STARTS MOVING INTO THE AREA
AND STARTS TO SCOUR US OUT LATER THIS EVENING. THE MOISTURE IS
RATHER SHALLOW...BUT DOES BECOME DEEPER OVER WEST KENTUCKY THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY AHEAD
OF THE FRONT DUE TO THIS DEEPER MOISTURE...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE
LIMITED. BEST CHANCES WILL BE FROM MURRAY TO MADISONVILLE AND
SOUTHWARD...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE TENNESSEE BORDER.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. WHILE WE
WILL SEE A SLIGHT COOL DOWN...MOST OF THE COLD AIR WILL BE
SITUATED ACROSS THE MIDWESTERN STATES. THEREFORE...WE WILL STAY
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES.
MEANWHILE...OVER THE WEEKEND...ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BE DIVING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY SUNDAY MORNING. MODELS AGREE IN CUTTING
OFF THE UPPER LOW OVER NM/WEST TX...WHICH SHOULD ACT TO KEEP ANY
POSSIBLE ACTIVITY TO OUR SOUTH WHERE THE MAIN SFC LOW WILL FORM.
12Z MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT IN KEEPING THE AREA DRY MONDAY THROUGH
AT LEAST TUESDAY MORNING...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE
REGION. DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF THE HIGH...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON MONDAY.
LOOKING TO OUR MID WEEK MESS...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE IN
PRINCIPLE...BUT DISAGREE ON THE DETAILS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER IN OUR
AREA. THE 12Z ECMWF HAS CONTINUED TO TREND SLOWER AND SOUTH WITH THE
CLOSED LOW COMING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST...EFFECTIVELY KEEPING THE
ENTIRE AREA DRY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. ALL OTHER GUIDANCE IS
POINTING TO A MOSTLY DRY TUESDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN/SHOWERS
SPREADING ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERED POPS A BIT
ON OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN BORDER AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT LEFT
THE OLD CONSENSUS MOSTLY IN PLAY.
ANOTHER TREND FROM 24 HOURS AGO IS NOTED IN THE GFS WHICH IS FARTHER
EAST WITH ITS NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM...AND THE ASSOCIATED CANADIAN
SURFACE HIGH. IT ACTUALLY BRINGS THE COLD AIR INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
BEFORE THE DEFORMATION ZONE RAIN EXITS THE AREA. BASED SOLELY ON THE
GFS SOLUTION...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A BRIEF CHANGE OVER TO
SNOW BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION ENDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. OF COURSE
THE 12Z ECMWF KEEPS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS COMPLETELY DRY THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. KEPT THE PREVIOUS CONSENSUS CHANCY POPS FOR WEDNESDAY...AND
WENT WITH A WARMER SOLUTION THAN THE GFS...KEEPING THE PRECIPITATION
ALL RAIN WEDNESDAY.
THE ECMWF AND GFS EACH PIVOT THE MAIN MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH
THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...BUT ARE DRY COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY. HAVE SLIGHT POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND KEPT IT DRY FOR
THURSDAY. WOULD EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY
TO QUICKLY BECOME SNOW WITH COOL AIR AT THE LOW-LEVELS AND ALOFT.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY SETTLES SOUTH OF THE AREA BY 00Z
SATURDAY...BUT SHOULD SEE A RATHER CHILLY END TO THE WEEK...WITH OR
WITHOUT ANY SNOW COVER.
THE MODELS HAVE NOT DETERMINED MUCH FOR OUR MID-WEEK STORM SYSTEM AS
OF YET...HOPEFULLY THEY WILL HASH IT OUR OVER THE WEEKEND. STAY
TUNED.
&&
.AVIATION...
SW WINDS AOB 10 KTS WILL VEER AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST FROM 08-10Z
WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE...THEN VEER AROUND TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST
AFT 15Z. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...BUT ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION SHOULD DEVELOP SOUTH AND
EAST OF ALL TAF SITES. KPAH COULD SEE AN MVFR CEILING FROM 07-09Z BUT
CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR AT THE OTHER SITES UNTIL FRONTAL PASSAGE.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
JP/SMITH/99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NWS RAPID CITY SD
1013 PM MST FRI JAN 6 2012
.AVIATION...06Z TAFS
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 217 PM MST FRI JAN 6 2012/
DISCUSSION...
VERY FLAT LONG WAVE RIDGE IS AT ABOUT 125W THIS MORNING WITH
LARGELY ZONAL FLOW FROM THE DATE LINE TO THE EAST COAST OF THE US.
SHORT WAVE TROFS WERE NEAR LAKE WG AND SOUTH WEST WARD AND
APPROACHING THE WEST COAST OF CANADA. LONG WAVE RIDGE WILL REBUILD
AS THE SHORT WAVE TROF MOVES EAST WARD...SPLITTING INTO TWO PARTS.
THE SOUTHERN PORTION HEADS FOR AZ/NM WHILE THE NORTHERN PORTION
MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND LARGELY SHEARS OUT.
THE 1000 TO 500 MB MEAN TEMPERATURE ANOMALY AT RAPID CITY THIS
MORNING IS ABOUT +3C WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS OVER NORTH
WEST MT. THE ONLY REALLY COLD AIR LIES OVER WESTERN AK.
THE NORTHERN SHORT WAVE TROF CROSSES OUR AREA SUNDAY AM WITH
LITTLE INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER.
BRISK WINDS HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES DOWN TODAY...BUT WILL BE QUICK
TO DIE OFF THIS EVENING AS PRESSURES RISE TO THE EAST AND BEGIN TO
FALL A BIT TO THE WEST CUTTING BACK ON THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE QUICK TO FALL DURING THE EVENING HOURS...BUT INCREASING
MOISTURE EVIDENT ON THE WATER VAPOR LOOP AND A BIT OF WARM
ADVECTION AT 700 MB WILL LEAD TO SOME INCREASE IN HIGH AND MID
CLOUDINESS LATER TONIGHT LIKELY SLOWING TEMPERATURE FALLS EARLY AM.
BOTH NAM AND RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE
AND CLOUDINESS.
DRYING IS SHOWN ON THE SOUNDINGS LATE SATURDAY EVENING IN SPITE OF
APPROACH OF THE SHORT WAVE TROF. SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN QUITE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
EXTENDED...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CROSSES THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH
TUESDAY. STRONG UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE AREA TUESDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS SEEM TO BE TRENDING EARLIER WITH THE
TIMING...SO WILL WATCH FOR POP ADJUSTMENTS. SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST
QUICKLY WITH AREA REMAINING UNDER FAST NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH
MIDWEEK. BOTH GFS AND EC TRY TO BUILD WESTERN RIDGE BACK ACROSS THE
ROCKIES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...WFO UNR
LONG TERM....WFO UNR
AVIATION...HELGESON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
336 AM CST SAT JAN 7 2012
.SHORT TERM...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH.
BIG CONCERN IS WITH TEMPERATURES TODAY. COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES
THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH 925MB TEMPERATURES FALLING FROM CURRENT
LEVELS AROUND 0C TO +1 DOWN TO -4C TO -5C BY 18Z. ALSO WATCHING
STRATUS TRYING TO WORK SOUTHEAST FROM NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. MODEL
SOUNDINGS AND LOW-LEVEL RH FIELDS INDICATE THIS DECK WILL DROP
ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER LEADING EDGE HAS
BEEN ERODING AS IT RUNS INTO SUBSIDENCE BEHIND EXITING WAVE...AND
MOVES AWAY FROM DEEPER SNOW FIELD TO THE NORTH. WILL ADJUST SKY IF
NEEDED AT ISSUANCE...BUT EVEN WITH MORE SUNSHINE...925MB
TEMPERATURES DICTATE NO MORE THAN MID TO UPPER 30S WITH THE COOLER
TEMPERATURES NORTH OVER THE SNOW PACK AND THE BETTER CHANCE AT SOME
CLOUD COVER.
QUIET AND COOL TONIGHT WITH A THIN SCATTERED TO BROKEN CIRRUS DECK
AT BEST AND LIGHT WINDS ALLOWING LOWS IN THE TEENS NORTH TO LOWER
20S SOUTH.
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST ON SUNDAY.
850MB TEMPS WILL BE WARMING SLIGHTLY...SO A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER
EXPECTED ON SUN THAN SAT WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S TO AROUND
40. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME THIN CIRRUS...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN
THE WAY OF CLOUDS.
SUN NIGHT MIN TEMPS EXPECTED IN THE UPPER 20S WITH CONTINUED SUBTLE
850MB WARMING. CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED BEHIND THE PASSING 500MB
TROUGH.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH.
HIGH PRESSURE AND WARMER THICKNESSES WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN WI.
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
PLAINS/MIDWEST AND A LOW TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BRING
A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS ACROSS WI ON MON
AFTERNOON WITH MIXING UP TO 950/925MB EXPECTED.
INCREASED MAX TEMPS ON MON AND TUE TO GENERALLY THE BIAS-CORRECTED
MOS GUIDANCE VALUES...WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S. ECMWF AND GFS ARE
FORECASTING THICKNESSES AROUND 548DM AND 850MB TEMPS AROUND +5C BY
00Z WED. A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND
500MB RIDGING OVERHEAD.
.LONG TERM...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
A CUTOFF 500MB LOW OVER TEXAS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
ON WEDNESDAY AND BRING A LARGE AMOUNT OF PRECIP TO THE NORTHEAST US
THROUGH THURSDAY...WHILE ANOTHER CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPS NEAR CALIFORNIA
AND ARIZONA. MEANWHILE...A STRONG 500MB TROUGH/VORT MAX WILL DROP
DOWN ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WED
AFTERNOON THROUGH THU.
WITH A DEEP UPPER LOW AND A SURFACE LOW OCCLUDING OVER NORTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN OR LAKE SUPERIOR...A RATHER STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WI
BETWEEN WED AFTERNOON OR EVENING...DEPENDING ON THE MODEL OF CHOICE.
00Z ECMWF SFC PATTERN SEEMS TO HAVE GONE BACK TO LAST NIGHT/S 00Z
RUN...LAGGING THE SFC LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES LONGER AND CAUSING
MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP ACROSS WI THROUGH THU. THE GFS AND PREVIOUS
12Z ECMWF RUNS MOVE THE SFC LOW ALONG TO THE EAST COAST A LITTLE
QUICKER. ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIP MENTIONED IN FCST WED NIGHT
THU AT THIS TIME.
PRECIPITATION MOST LIKELY IN THE FORM OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS
SFC LOW AND COLD FRONT...ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER. AT THIS
TIME...PRECIP AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT WITH THE FAST-MOVING FRONT UNLESS
THE SLOWER ECMWF PANS OUT. GFS KEEPS SOUTHERN WI DRY WITH THIS
SYSTEM.
COLD AIR WILL SETTLE IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...WITH HIGH TEMPS MORE
AROUND NORMAL IN THE LOWER 20S THU AND FRI. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT
THESE TEMPS ARE A LITTLE TOO HIGH GIVEN THE EXPECTED 850MB TEMPS TO
BE AROUND -16C. HOWEVER...LATEST ECMWF AND GFS SHOW THIS TO BE
SHORT-LIVED...WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND WARMING TEMPS AGAIN FOR NEXT
WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...
ADDED LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR TO KMSN AND KMKE TAFS AS SURFACE WINDS
HAVE DECOUPLED WITH CLEARING SKIES AND 35-39KT NW WINDS AROUND
1300-1700 FT NOTED ON RUC SOUNDINGS SUPPORTED BY TAMDAR SOUNDING
FROM KRFD.
NEXT CONCERN IS WITH VFR CLOUD DECK DROPPING SE THROUGH THE STATE.
LEADING EDGE HAS BEEN ERODING AS IT RUNS INTO SUBSIDENCE BEHIND
DEPARTING WAVE AND MOVES AWAY FROM DEEPER SNOW COVER. WILL KEEP
SCATTERED STRATUS AT TAF SITES FOR NOW...AS BETTER CHANCE FOR A MORE
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER APPEARS TO BE NORTH...BUT WILL MONITOR
SATELLITE AND RAPID-UPDATE MODELS CLOSELY FOR DIFFERING TREND PRIOR
TO ISSUANCE.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS HAVE REMAINED UNDER SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA OVER THE WARMER
WATERS OF THE LAKE...WITH SURFACE GRADIENT SLOWLY RELAXING THROUGH
THE DAY WITH THE APPROACH OF A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THAT CROSSES THE
REGION TONIGHT.
MONDAY/MONDAY EVENING WILL BE THE NEXT PERIOD OF CONCERN AS BRISK
SOUTHWEST WINDS AND SUBSEQUENT WAVES MAY REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS ...AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL NORTH OF THE REGION.
BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS AND ASSOCIATED WAVES MAY REACH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS AT TIMES WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...BEHIND A
STRONG COLD FRONT.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...REM
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MRC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
218 AM CST SAT JAN 7 2012
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
218 AM CST SAT JAN 7 2012
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON STRATUS TODAY AND TEMPERATURES
THROUGHOUT.
CURRENTLY AS OF 08Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED RIDGING OVER THE EAST PACIFIC...AND SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND OVER WISCONSIN. THE FORECAST AREA LIES NOW
MOSTLY IN SUBSIDENCE ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF THE LATTER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...AS WELL IN A COLD AIR ADVECTION REGIME. THIS COLD ADVECTION
WAS NOTED BY A FALL IN 850MB TEMPS AT MPX FROM 6C AT 12Z FRIDAY TO
-2C AT 00Z SATURDAY PER SOUNDINGS. ACCOMPANYING THE COLD ADVECTION
IS A STRATUS DECK...WHICH IS FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST THAN PREVIOUSLY
ANTICIPATED. LATEST 11-3.9UM SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS THE STRATUS
ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF MINNESOTA...EXCLUDING THE SOUTHWEST CORNER...AS
WELL AS ABOUT THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. 00Z INL
SOUNDING REFLECTIVE OF THE STRATUS SHOWING NEAR SATURATED CONDITIONS
FROM THE SURFACE UP THROUGH AN INVERSION AROUND 850MB. THE STRATUS
HAS HELPED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES UP MOSTLY IN THE 30S. COOLER 20S
READINGS CAN BE SEEN DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH NORTHERN MN...IN THE WAKE OF
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT NEAR THE MINNEAPOLIS AREA.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...WEAK TROUGHING IS FORECAST TO PERSIST OVER THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT WHILE THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST DIGS DOWN INTO ARIZONA. WITH LITTLE UPPER LEVEL
FORCING PROGGED...NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION.
MAIN FOCUS IS ON THE STRATUS. SECONDARY COLD FRONT NEAR
MINNEAPOLIS LOOKS TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE STRATUS TO COME IN AND
ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE AREA. NOW COMES THE PROBLEM. THE 07.00Z NAM
HOLDS THE STRATUS AROUND ALL DAY TODAY AND EVEN MUCH OF TONIGHT
BEFORE 925MB WINDS BACKING WEST HELP CLEAR IT OUT. FURTHER
INVESTIGATION...HOWEVER...SHOWS THAT ITS DEPICTION OF THE CURRENT
SNOW PACK IS WAY OFF...STILL HAVING SNOW COVER DOWN TO I-94 AS
WELL AS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA. THIS SNOW
COVER IS LIKELY KEEPING THE NAM FROM MIXING OUT THE CLOUD DECK.
PREFER THE RUC SCENARIOS WHICH HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THE CURRENT
CLOUDS BUT SHOWS SCATTERING OF IT LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. PERHAPS THE ONLY AREA THAT THE CLOUDS WOULD PERSIST IS
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 29 WHERE SNOW EXISTS IN REALITY...AND IN FACT
COULD STAY THERE RIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE...ONCE THE LOW
CLOUDS CLEAR...SOME SCATTERED-BROKEN CIRRUS IS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT SOUTH OF I-90. REGARDING TEMPERATURES...WITH
THE STRATUS CONCERNS TODAY...DID NUDGE HIGHS DOWN A LITTLE. A
BLEND OF GUIDANCE SEEMS REASONABLE FOR LOWS TONIGHT...WITH A LACK
OF SNOW HELPING TO PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM TANKING AS MUCH AS
THEY COULD...GIVEN AN OTHERWISE FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING
SETUP.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...UPPER RIDGING CURRENTLY OVER THE EAST
PACIFIC IS PROGGED TO BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN PUSH EAST AND FLATTEN OUT FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS DOWN INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA.
ON TOP OF THE UPPER RIDGE...ALL MODELS SHOW A SHORTWAVE RIDING ALONG
IT...CROSSING MANITOBA AND ONTARIO SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH THIS
SHORTWAVE...A CHINOOK WARM FRONT ACCOMPANIES IT...CROSSING THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. 925MB TEMPS RESPOND BY CLIMBING FROM -2
TO -4C AT 12Z SUNDAY TO 0 TO +2C BY 12Z MONDAY. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY
PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...HOWEVER...SOME MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS ARE LIKELY. THESE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS COULD EVEN HANG AROUND
THROUGH MONDAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-90. OUTSIDE OF THE CLOUD
ISSUE...WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED...MAIN CONCERN IS
TEMPERATURES. SHOULD SEE QUITE A BIT OF SUN ON SUNDAY...EXCLUDING
MAYBE NORTH OF I-94...ALLOWING HIGHS TO REACH INTO THE 30S TO LOW
40S...WARMEST SOUTH OF I-90. FOLLOWED THE PREVIOUS SHIFT AND KEPT A
NON-DIURNAL TREND IN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...HAVING A DROP OFF IN THE
EVENING THEN STEADY OR CLIMBING AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE WARM FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WARMER 925MB TEMPS ON MONDAY IN CONJUNCTION WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 40S
IN MOST AREAS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION AGAIN IS NORTH OF I-94 DUE TO SNOW
COVER AND CLOUD CONCERNS. READINGS THERE MAY ONLY REACH THE UPPER
30S. MONDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES ARE TRICKY. 925MB READINGS ACTUALLY
WARM THROUGH THE NIGHT...REACHING 4-6C AT 12Z TUESDAY. 950MB WINDS
STAY UP AT 20 KT OR MORE FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. HIGHER TERRAIN
LOCATIONS MAY STRUGGLE TO DECOUPLE AS A RESULT...KEEPING LOWS UP
THERE. LOCATIONS THAT DO DECOUPLE COULD DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S/LOW
30S.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
218 AM CST SAT JAN 7 2012
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A PATTERN CHANGE FOR THE LONG TERM PORTION
OF THE FORECAST...ALL STARTED BY THAT POTENT TROUGH COMING INTO
SOUTHWEST CANADA MONDAY NIGHT. INITIALLY TUESDAY LOOKS WELL ABOVE
NORMAL...THANKS TO WARM ADVECTION CONTINUING DOWNSTREAM OF THIS
POTENT TROUGH. 925MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO WARM TO 4-6C BY 18Z
TUESDAY WHICH SHOULD ALLOW MOST LOCATIONS TO SEE HIGHS IN THE 40S...
WITH 50S CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. THE COOL DOWN THEN BEGINS TUESDAY
NIGHT AS THE POTENT TROUGH DIGS DOWN INTO THE DAKOTAS...SENDING A
COLD FRONT THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY.
925MB TEMPS FALL TO -4C TO +2C AT THAT TIME...COLDEST IN SOUTHEAST
MN. THE POTENT TROUGH FULLY MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...SENDING 850MB TEMPS DOWN TO NEAR -20C AND 925MB TEMPS TO
-15C BY 12Z THURSDAY. ACCOMPANYING THE COLD ADVECTION SHOULD BE
SOME STRONG WINDS. RIGHT NOW GUSTS LOOK TO STAY BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA BUT IS SOMETHING TO WATCH. ANOTHER ITEM TO WATCH IS
POTENTIAL FOR FALLING TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY. GIVEN HOW FAR OUT
THIS IS IN THE FORECAST...AND HOW CRITICAL TIMING OF THE COLD AIR
WOULD BE TO HAVE A FALLING TEMPERATURE TREND...HAVE NOT INCLUDED
IT IN THE FORECAST YET. AFTER THURSDAY...UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON HOW
QUICK THE POTENT TROUGH EXITS. THE 07.00Z GFS IS BY FAR THE
FASTEST...EJECTING IT UP INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA ON FRIDAY. THIS
SCENARIO WOULD RESULT IN SOME STRONG WARMING FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT AS 500MB HEIGHTS RISE. THE 07.00Z GFS ENSEMBLES PORTRAY A
SLOWER SCENARIO...PERHAPS SLIGHTLY CLOSER TO THE 07.00Z ECMWF.
THESE SCENARIOS WOULD STILL ALLOW FOR WARMING...BUT NOT AS
AGGRESSIVE...NOTED BY 850MB TEMPS CLIMBING TO AROUND -10C AT 00Z
SATURDAY VERSUS THE GFS WHICH IS AROUND -2C. PREFER THESE SLOWER
SCENARIOS...WHICH IS CLOSE TO WHAT A CONSENSUS BLEND OF
TEMPERATURES WOULD YIELD.
REGARDING PRECIPITATION CHANCES...THE ONLY THREAT OF IT WOULD COME
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS THE POTENT TROUGH COMES ACROSS. MAIN
FEATURE TO WATCH IS IF A TROWAL REGION CAN WRAP BACK INTO THE
FORECAST AREA AS SUGGESTED BY THE 06.00Z AND 07.00Z ECMWF RUNS. FOR
NOW...THERE HAS BEEN TOO MUCH INCONSISTENCY OF THIS FEATURE OF IT
COMING INTO THE FORECAST AREA...BOTH BETWEEN MODELS AND RUN TO RUN.
THEREFORE...PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE HELD TO NO MORE THAN 20 AND
MAINLY NORTH OF I-90.
&&
.AVIATION...
1110 PM CST FRI JAN 6 2012
DIFFICULT CLOUD FORECAST FOR KRST/KLSE WITH MIXED SIGNALS IN THE
MODELS. LATEST NAM12/RUC13 DOING THE BEST JOB WITH THE CURRENT LOW
CLOUD DECK SINKING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. IT WAS MOSTLY MVFR
WITH CIGS AROUND 2500 FT. THE RUC13 SUGGEST A GRADUAL CLEARING FROM
WEST TO EAST LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...WHILE THE NAM HANGS ON
INTO EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER...THE NAM IS ALSO HANGING ONTO SOME SNOW
COVER WHICH IS NOT THERE...AND LIKELY LEADING TO AN OVER ABUNDANCE
OF 925 RH. HAVE OPTED TO LEAN ON THE RUC TRENDS WITH THE 06Z TAF
ISSUANCE. EXPECT THERE WILL NEED TO BE SOME UPDATES AS TIMING BECOME
MORE CLEAR.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS SAT NIGHT...AND
WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH WITH SKC/SCT SKIES.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
218 AM CST SAT JAN 7 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION.....RIECK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1110 PM CST FRI JAN 6 2012
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
241 PM CST FRI JAN 6 2012
AT 3 PM...A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM SAULT STE MARIE MICHIGAN
TO LUBBOCK TEXAS. WITH THE AIR MASS BEING OF PACIFIC ORIGIN...
THERE WAS ONLY A SLIGHT DECREASE IN THE TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE
FRONT. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA WERE MAINLY IN THE 40S TODAY.
IF IT WERE NOT FOR THE EXTENSIVE MID CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA...
TEMPERATURES MAY HAVE CLIMBED A FEW MORE DEGREES. WHERE SKIES HAVE
BEEN CLEARING /NORTH OF A DODGE CENTER MINNESOTA TO ESCANABA
MICHIGAN LINE/...TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED A COUPLE OF DEGREES...
SO MAY CLIMB A FEW MORE DEGREES IN THE AREAS THAT CLEAR OUT LATE
THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT...06.12Z MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA. LIKE ITS PREDECESSOR...THIS
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION DRY. BEHIND THIS
FRONT...THERE WILL BE ANOTHER SLIGHT DROP IN TEMPERATURES. 925 MB
TEMPERATURES DROP FROM 2 TO 6C AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO -2 TO -6C
BEHIND THIS FRONT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL FALL OFF INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 20S. THIS IS ABOUT 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN OUR NORMAL DAILY HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. IN ADDITION TO THE COOLER
TEMPERATURES...SOME LOW CLOUDS ARE MOVING SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA.
WITH THEIR CURRENT TRAJECTORY...THINKING THAT THE BEST CHANCE OF
SEEING THESE CLOUDS WILL BE NORTHEAST OF A LAKE CITY MINNESOTA TO
THE WISCONSIN DELLS. THERE MAY BE EVEN A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR. HOWEVER NO SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.
ON SATURDAY...CLOUDS WILL LINGER ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE
94 CORRIDOR DURING THE MORNING AND GRADUALLY CLEAR DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF THESE CLOUDS AND THE COOL 925 MB
TEMPERATURES WILL KEEP THESE TEMPERATURES IN THESE AREAS CONFINED
TO THE LOWER AND MID 30S. MEANWHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
WILL SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.
ON SUNDAY NIGHT...A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
REGION. THE 925 MB TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB FROM -2 TO -4C AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT TO 0 TO 4C BEHIND THIS FRONT. COLDEST TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE EVENING AND THEN EITHER REMAIN STEADY OR
SLOWLY CLIMB DURING THE OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT...WENT WITH A NON
DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
241 PM CST FRI JAN 6 2012
FROM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...925 MB TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM
4 TO 8C. THIS IS JUST A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN THEY WERE
YESTERDAY. AS A RESULT...EXPECT TO SEE A RETURN TO MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. CURRENTLY WENT WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON BOTH
DAYS IN THE 40S...BUT WOULD NOT BE TOO SURPRISED THAT WE MAY SEE
ANOTHER ROUND OF 50 DEGREE TEMPERATURES.
ON WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER AIR PATTERN SHIFT BEGIN AS THE PACIFIC
NORTH AMERICAN /PNA/ TELECONNECTION BECOMES POSITIVE /WESTERN U.S.
RIDGE AND EASTERN U.S. TROUGH/. THIS WILL ALLOW MUCH COLDER AIR TO
SPILL SOUTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA. UNLIKE THE 06.00Z
ECMWF WHERE IT SHOWED DECENT PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A
CLOSED LOW...A MAJORITY OF 06.12Z NOW SUGGEST THAT THIS FRONT WILL
HAVE VERY LITTLE MOISTURE TO PRODUCE MUCH PRECIPITATION
THE TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL BE INTI ALLY BELOW
NORMAL AND THEN WARM UP CLOSER TO NORMAL AS THE AIR MASS GRADUALLY
MODERATES. UNLIKE THE NEW YEARS FRONT...THIS COLD AIR MAY PERSIST
FOR SEVERAL INTO MID JANUARY. AS THE TROPICAL FORCING MOVES INTO
THE INDIAN OCEAN FROM THE AFRICAN CONTINENT...EXPECT TO ONCE AGAIN
SEE THE POLAR JET RETREAT BACK INTO SOUTHERN CANADA BRINGING A
RETURN TO THE UNSEASONABLE FOR THE LATTER PART OF JANUARY.
&&
.AVIATION...
1110 PM CST FRI JAN 6 2012
DIFFICULT CLOUD FORECAST FOR KRST/KLSE WITH MIXED SIGNALS IN THE
MODELS. LATEST NAM12/RUC13 DOING THE BEST JOB WITH THE CURRENT LOW
CLOUD DECK SINKING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. IT WAS MOSTLY MVFR
WITH CIGS AROUND 2500 FT. THE RUC13 SUGGEST A GRADUAL CLEARING FROM
WEST TO EAST LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...WHILE THE NAM HANGS ON
INTO EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER...THE NAM IS ALSO HANGING ONTO SOME SNOW
COVER WHICH IS NOT THERE...AND LIKELY LEADING TO AN OVER ABUNDANCE
OF 925 RH. HAVE OPTED TO LEAN ON THE RUC TRENDS WITH THE 06Z TAF
ISSUANCE. EXPECT THERE WILL NEED TO BE SOME UPDATES AS TIMING BECOME
MORE CLEAR.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS SAT NIGHT...AND
WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH WITH SKC/SCT SKIES.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
241 PM CST FRI JAN 6 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM....BOYNE
AVIATION.....RIECK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
529 AM CST SAT JAN 7 2012
.AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF MN AND WESTERN WI WRAPPING AROUND A SYSTEM
OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTHEAST AND LIKELY
AFFECT DBQ AND CID THIS MORNING. AT THE CURRENT RATE...THE LEADING
EDGE OF THESE CLOUDS WITH BASES FROM 2000 TO 3000 FT...WILL REACH
CID AND DBQ BETWEEN 14Z AND 15Z. LATEST TAFS HAVE INTRODUCED TEMPO
GROUPS AT THESE TWO SITES FOR MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING. THE LOW
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BECOME SCATTERED AND SHIFT EAST OF THE SITES
BY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED.
..SHEETS..
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM CST SAT JAN 7 2012/
SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE THAT SWEPT THE COOL FRONT THROUGH THE REGION
YESTERDAY WAS OVER SE ONTARIO EARLY THIS MORNING. MSAS ANALYSIS
INDICATED A TROUGH EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM THE LOW ACROSS UPPER MI
INTO NORTHERN WI AND CENTRAL MN. SURFACE REPORTS AND SATELLITE FOG
CHANNEL IMAGERY INDICATED A LARGE AREA OF LOW CLOUDS ALONG AND
NORTH OF THIS AXIS OF CYCLONIC FLOW...AND JUST BEHIND THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR CHANNEL EXTENDING FROM
EASTERN UPPER MI TO NORTHERN IL. AT 08Z...THE RAGGED LEADING EDGE
OF THE LOW CLOUDS REACHED FROM THE N CENTRAL IA/MN BORDER TO NEAR
LA CROSSE...AND WAS EXPANDING SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA
AROUND 25 MPH. ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OUT AHEAD OF THE CLOUD
DECK...UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT W-NW WINDS...
TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.
SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
INITIAL FOCUS IS ON CLOUD TRENDS THIS MORNING. DISTANCE TIME TOOL
PLACES THE LEADING EDGE OF THESE CLOUDS INTO THE HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR
IN EASTERN IA AROUND 7 AM. THIS IS CLOSE TO THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
LATEST RUC DEPICTION OF HIGHER MOISTURE IN THE 900-950 LAYER
THAT IS SHOWN SPREADING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST OVER THE ROUGHLY THE
NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MIDDAY. THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST EXTENT MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE BASED ON THE WEAKENING LOW
LEVEL TROUGH AND LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE ANTICYCLONIC TODAY
OVER ESPECIALLY THE WEST AS HIGH PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS
SPREADS EASTWARD. CONSIDERING THIS...AND WITH SUPPORT FROM THE
LATEST VSREF CIG PROBS...WILL HAVE SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY
EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF EASTERN IA AND NW
IL...FOLLOWED BY CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...WILL HAVE
HIGH CLOUDS MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES SPREADING INTO THE AREA FROM
LATE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.
WITH MORE CLOUDS IN THE NORTH...WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S...WHILE
THE SOUTH SHOULD PUSH THE HIGHER END OF GUIDANCE IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S. OVERNIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE
AREA BY SUNRISE. HIGH CLOUD COVER SHOULD CONTAIN TEMPERATURES
DESPITE THE COOL DRY AIRMASS AND LIGHT WINDS. PREVIOUS FORECAST
LOWS FROM THE MID 20S NORTH TO AROUND 30 LOOKED REASONABLE AND
MADE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS. ..SHEETS..
LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY...
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WE REMAIN BETWEEN SYSTEMS AS THE SPLIT FLOW
REGIME WE HAVE BEEN SEEING A LOT OF LATELY AFFECTS THE CONUS. IN THE
SOUTHERN STREAM THERE IS A CUT OFF LOW THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST CONUS...WITH A FASTER MOVING SHORTWAVE RIPPLING ACROSS THE
US/CANADIAN BORDER AND DIPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM CUT OFF LOW
PASSES ACROSS THE MIDWEST ON MONDAY. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WE HAVE
HAD SOME COLDER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES...BUT ONCE IT PASSES WE
SHOULD GET WARM AIR ADVECTION AS RIDGING TO THE WEST ALLOWS WARMER
AIR TO SURGE INTO THE AREA AT THE MID LEVELS. THIS SHOULD ALSO
PRODUCE A MUCH WARMER DAY ON TUESDAY OVER SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS 850MB
TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE POSITIVE 4-6 DEGREE RANGE AFTER HAVING
BEEN LINGERING AROUND NEGATIVE 4 FOR SUNDAY...ONLY SLOWLY WARMING TO
0 TO NEGATIVE 2 FOR MONDAY. THUS...HAVE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IN
TEMPS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH A MORE SIGNIFICANT WARM UP FOR
TUESDAY.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY THINGS GET A BIT MORE INTERESTING...BUT
ALSO UNCERTAIN. AS THE SOUTHERN STREAM CUT OFF LOW SLOWLY WORKS OFF
TO THE EAST ALONG THE GULF COAST...THE MODELS BRING DOWN A FAIRLY
STRONG TROUGH OUT OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND BRING IT DOWN ACROSS
THE MIDWEST ON WEDNESDAY...BRINGING MUCH COLDER AIR AND SOME
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. HOWEVER...THE MODELS HAVE SOME FAIRLY
SIGNIFICANT DISCREPANCIES IN TIMING AND STRENGTH AND IN RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY AT THIS TIME. THE LATEST 00Z ECMWF CAME IN WITH A MUCH
STRONGER SOLUTION THAN PREVIOUS OR OTHER MODELS...AND AM VIEWING
THIS RATHER PESSIMISTIC SOLUTION WITH SKEPTICISM. EITHER WAY...WE
ARE LOOKING A NOTICEABLE COOL DOWN FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT. MOISTURE MAY BE A LIMITING FACTOR
FOR ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND HAVE KEPT POPS
NEGLIGIBLE AT THIS TIME...THOUGH ANTICIPATE THAT THEY MAY NEED TO BE
RAISED. FRIDAY THERE IS SOME RECOVERY IN THE TEMPERATURES BEHIND
THE WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY SYSTEM...BUT MUCH IS GOING TO DEPEND ON WHAT
THAT SYSTEM DOES BEFORE WE CAN HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE IN THE FRIDAY
FORECAST. ..LE..
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
1045 AM EST SAT JAN 7 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK GREAT LAKES COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THIS AREA TODAY AND BRING
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. QUIET WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
15Z ENHANCED SHORT TERM FORECAST UPDATE HAS BEEN ISSUED THIS
MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBS. TEMPS WERE
ADJUSTED UP A FEW MORE DEGREES AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT AND
SKY GRIDS WERE UPDATED TO ACCOUNT FOR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD COVERAGE
SOUTHEAST OF PITTSBURGH.
THE LATEST RUC MID-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A 500MB SHORT WAVE
TROUGH SWINGING ACROSS MICHIGAN WITH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY IN A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. AT THE SURFACE, A 1004MB SURFACE LOW IS
CENTERED ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WITH A 1022MB HIGH CENTERED ACROSS
THE MISSOURI VALLEY. A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM
THE SURFACE LOW INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND HAS PUSHED EAST OF
A LINE FROM FRANKLIN SOUTHWEST TO ZANESVILLE. THERE IS WEAK COLD
AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH LITTLE TO SHOW WITH ITS
PASSAGE ASIDE FROM A WIND SHIFT TO WESTERLY AND SOME MID-DECK
CLOUDS BEHIND IT.
THIS AFTERNOON...THE WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE AREA AND
THE MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL OVERNIGHT. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER MAY CLIP THE WV/MD RIDGES BY EARLY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE,
DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL OCCUR TODAY. HIGHS TEMPS ARE CLOSEST TO A
HRRR/LAMP BLEND, RANGING FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS
SOUTH AND EAST OF PITTSBURGH TO THE MID 40S ACROSS THE I-80
CORRIDOR.
TONIGHT...THE NAM/HRRR ARE INDICATING THAT WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION
ALONG WITH THE 850MB FLOW SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY WILL BE ENOUGH
FOR A SCHC OF SNOW SHOWERS NORTH OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR. OTHERWISE,
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT WITH
A DRY FORECAST IN PLACE. ONGOING WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
ALLOW FOR NOTICEABLY COLDER LOWS TONIGHT, RANGING FROM THE MID TO
UPPER 20S ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE ACROSS REGION SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY IN A SPLIT FLOW IN THE JET STREAM ACROSS THE U.S. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE NEAR TO ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THERE IS GFS/ECMWF AGREEMENT THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY AND KEEP THE FORECAST DRY MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
A CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW WILL THEN MOVE FROM THE WESTERN GULF STATES
ACROSS THE THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT AHEAD OF
THE LOW PUSHES NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA. MODEL THICKNESSES WILL WARM
ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS THAT WOULD BE NEEDED FOR A WINTRY MIX, SO
FORECAST IS FOR ALL RAIN TO BEGIN THE EVENT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE MID-WEEK.
RAIN WILL BE LIKELY FOR AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF PITTSBURGH WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA AND INTO
THE NORTHEAST. 12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF ARE OFF IN TIMING OF THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM AND FORECAST SIDES WITH
THE FASTER GFS, TURNING PRECIP OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA BY
THURSDAY MORNING. CHANCE POPS ARE FORECAST FOR THE RIDGES AND LAKE
EFFECT COUNTIES AS COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALLOWS FOR SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE
ARCTIC AIR MASS IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING TEMPS CLOSER
TO NORMAL VALUES ON THURSDAY, DROPPING TO 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BY
FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH A BRIEF MVFR
FORECAST AT MGW AS LOWER MOISTURE IS MOVING ACROSS WV. A WEAK
FRONT HAS PUSHED EAST OF KFKL/KZZV AND WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM
SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY FOR THE REMAINING TERMINALS WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON SATURDAY NIGHT WITH GENERAL VFR
CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED UNTIL THE APPROACH OF LOW PRESSURE DURING
THE MID WEEK.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS FORT WORTH TX
934 AM CST SAT JAN 7 2012
.UPDATE...
ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 285K-290K ISENTROPIC RUC SURFACES SHOW
THAT BOUNDARY LAYER STRATUS 012-025 KFT WILL LINGER ACROSS PARTS
OF NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST
EARLY-MID AFTERNOON PER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE FORECASTS. MODELS
ARE STRUGGLING ON TIMING OF DEPARTURE TO THE EAST OF THE CLOUDS
AND THE FRONTAL PUSH THIS AFTERNOON. PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT ARE ONLY ON THE ORDER OF 1-2MB/3 HR.
HAVE ALSO INCREASED NORTHWEST WINDS WITH SOME GUSTINESS THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON PER BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ON LOCAL PROFILERS LIKELY
TO MIX BY MIDDAY. THE CONTINUED CAA AND LINGERING STRATUS ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST HALF OF NORTH TEXAS HAS LED US TO LOWER HIGHS ACROSS
THESE COUNTIES INTO THE LOWER AND MID 50S...INCLUDING THE DFW
METROPLEX. THIS MAY BE OPTIMISTIC IF CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON IS
SLOWER THAN ANTICIPATED.
05
&&
.AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT STRETCHED ROUGHLY ALONG THE INTERSTATE 35/35E
CORRIDOR EARLY THIS MORNING. THE FRONT HAD RECENTLY CROSSED ALL AREA
TERMINALS WHERE WINDS HAD BECOME WEST DURING THE PAST HOUR OR SO.
SURFACE WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO VEER THROUGH THE MORNING...BECOMING
NORTH-NORTHWEST AROUND 10 KT BY 16Z. IFR STRATUS IS THICKENING
IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY BUT SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF TAF
SITES. LINGERING SHALLOW MOISTURE MAY ALLOW SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS
TO OCCASIONALLY FORM THROUGH 14Z...BUT DRIER WNW FLOW AND WEAK
ISENTROPIC DOWN-GLIDE SHOULD KEEP LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT TO A
MINIMUM NORTHWEST OF THE BOUNDARY. WINDS WILL DIE DOWN AFTER
SUNSET AND SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS FORECAST
PERIOD.
30
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CST SAT JAN 7 2012/
SOME CHANGES WILL TAKE PLACE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS WHICH WILL RESULT IN SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN FOR THE
REGION. INITIALLY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS
TODAY AND BRING COOLER AND DRIER AIR. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE
ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN FRIDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S....EXCEPT FOR A FEW READINGS IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES. MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE ACROSS TEXAS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEEPENS NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN A CLOUDY
DAY SUNDAY WITH A FEW SHOWERS IN THE SOUTH...THEN INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS LARGE SCALE FORCING INTERACTS
WITH THE MOISTURE. THE MODELS ARE FINALLY STARTING TO AGREE MORE
ON THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM. IT APPEARS THAT ALL OF
NORTH TEXAS WILL SEE APPRECIABLE RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST ON TUESDAY. THERE
IS EVEN A CHANCE OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE NORTHWEST ZONES
OVERNIGHT MONDAY/TUESDAY MORNING AS THE CORE OF THE UPPER LOW TRACKS
OVER THE REGION. EVEN IF THE NAM SOLUTION...WHICH IS THE
COLDEST...VERIFIES...LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL BE TOO
WARM FOR ANY TYPE OF SNOW ACCUMULATION. SO FOR NOW WILL JUST
MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR A MIX AND ALLOW LATER SHIFTS TO REFINE
AND ADJUST. ALL PRECIPITATION SHOULD END ACROSS NORTH TEXAS
TUESDAY NIGHT BUT RAINFALL TOTALS SHOULD AVERAGE BETWEEN 1 AND 2
INCHES IN MOST LOCATIONS WITH EVEN SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN
THE EAST. SINCE RAINFALL SHOULD OCCUR OVER A 24 TO 36 HOUR TIME
SPAN...THE TREAT OF FLOODING SHOULD BE LOW. WILL MENTION ISOLATED
THUNDER WITH THIS EVENT SINCE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SOME ELEVATED CORES.
MID WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL
WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE. IT
DOES APPEAR THAT ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY WILL DEVELOP IN THE
SOUTHERN JET STREAM BY THE WEEKEND AND MAY BRING RAIN CHANCES BACK
TO NORTH TEXAS BY NEXT SATURDAY OR SUNDAY.
79
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 56 43 64 43 48 / 5 5 10 70 70
WACO, TX 62 43 63 45 50 / 5 5 20 70 70
PARIS, TX 56 45 62 42 50 / 5 5 10 70 60
DENTON, TX 55 36 61 38 47 / 5 5 10 70 60
MCKINNEY, TX 54 38 63 40 48 / 5 5 10 60 60
DALLAS, TX 56 44 63 44 48 / 5 5 10 70 70
TERRELL, TX 57 42 62 45 50 / 10 5 10 60 70
CORSICANA, TX 62 45 66 47 52 / 10 5 20 60 70
TEMPLE, TX 65 45 67 45 48 / 5 5 20 80 70
MINERAL WELLS, TX 58 34 60 36 45 / 5 5 10 70 70
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
30/05
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
533 AM CST SAT JAN 7 2012
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
218 AM CST SAT JAN 7 2012
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON STRATUS TODAY AND TEMPERATURES
THROUGHOUT.
CURRENTLY AS OF 08Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED RIDGING OVER THE EAST PACIFIC...AND SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND OVER WISCONSIN. THE FORECAST AREA LIES NOW
MOSTLY IN SUBSIDENCE ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF THE LATTER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...AS WELL IN A COLD AIR ADVECTION REGIME. THIS COLD ADVECTION
WAS NOTED BY A FALL IN 850MB TEMPS AT MPX FROM 6C AT 12Z FRIDAY TO
-2C AT 00Z SATURDAY PER SOUNDINGS. ACCOMPANYING THE COLD ADVECTION
IS A STRATUS DECK...WHICH IS FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST THAN PREVIOUSLY
ANTICIPATED. LATEST 11-3.9UM SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS THE STRATUS
ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF MINNESOTA...EXCLUDING THE SOUTHWEST CORNER...AS
WELL AS ABOUT THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. 00Z INL
SOUNDING REFLECTIVE OF THE STRATUS SHOWING NEAR SATURATED CONDITIONS
FROM THE SURFACE UP THROUGH AN INVERSION AROUND 850MB. THE STRATUS
HAS HELPED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES UP MOSTLY IN THE 30S. COOLER 20S
READINGS CAN BE SEEN DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH NORTHERN MN...IN THE WAKE OF
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT NEAR THE MINNEAPOLIS AREA.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...WEAK TROUGHING IS FORECAST TO PERSIST OVER THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT WHILE THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST DIGS DOWN INTO ARIZONA. WITH LITTLE UPPER LEVEL
FORCING PROGGED...NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION.
MAIN FOCUS IS ON THE STRATUS. SECONDARY COLD FRONT NEAR
MINNEAPOLIS LOOKS TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE STRATUS TO COME IN AND
ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE AREA. NOW COMES THE PROBLEM. THE 07.00Z NAM
HOLDS THE STRATUS AROUND ALL DAY TODAY AND EVEN MUCH OF TONIGHT
BEFORE 925MB WINDS BACKING WEST HELP CLEAR IT OUT. FURTHER
INVESTIGATION...HOWEVER...SHOWS THAT ITS DEPICTION OF THE CURRENT
SNOW PACK IS WAY OFF...STILL HAVING SNOW COVER DOWN TO I-94 AS
WELL AS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA. THIS SNOW
COVER IS LIKELY KEEPING THE NAM FROM MIXING OUT THE CLOUD DECK.
PREFER THE RUC SCENARIOS WHICH HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THE CURRENT
CLOUDS BUT SHOWS SCATTERING OF IT LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. PERHAPS THE ONLY AREA THAT THE CLOUDS WOULD PERSIST IS
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 29 WHERE SNOW EXISTS IN REALITY...AND IN FACT
COULD STAY THERE RIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE...ONCE THE LOW
CLOUDS CLEAR...SOME SCATTERED-BROKEN CIRRUS IS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT SOUTH OF I-90. REGARDING TEMPERATURES...WITH
THE STRATUS CONCERNS TODAY...DID NUDGE HIGHS DOWN A LITTLE. A
BLEND OF GUIDANCE SEEMS REASONABLE FOR LOWS TONIGHT...WITH A LACK
OF SNOW HELPING TO PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM TANKING AS MUCH AS
THEY COULD...GIVEN AN OTHERWISE FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING
SETUP.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...UPPER RIDGING CURRENTLY OVER THE EAST
PACIFIC IS PROGGED TO BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN PUSH EAST AND FLATTEN OUT FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS DOWN INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA.
ON TOP OF THE UPPER RIDGE...ALL MODELS SHOW A SHORTWAVE RIDING ALONG
IT...CROSSING MANITOBA AND ONTARIO SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH THIS
SHORTWAVE...A CHINOOK WARM FRONT ACCOMPANIES IT...CROSSING THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. 925MB TEMPS RESPOND BY CLIMBING FROM -2
TO -4C AT 12Z SUNDAY TO 0 TO +2C BY 12Z MONDAY. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY
PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...HOWEVER...SOME MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS ARE LIKELY. THESE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS COULD EVEN HANG AROUND
THROUGH MONDAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-90. OUTSIDE OF THE CLOUD
ISSUE...WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED...MAIN CONCERN IS
TEMPERATURES. SHOULD SEE QUITE A BIT OF SUN ON SUNDAY...EXCLUDING
MAYBE NORTH OF I-94...ALLOWING HIGHS TO REACH INTO THE 30S TO LOW
40S...WARMEST SOUTH OF I-90. FOLLOWED THE PREVIOUS SHIFT AND KEPT A
NON-DIURNAL TREND IN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...HAVING A DROP OFF IN THE
EVENING THEN STEADY OR CLIMBING AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE WARM FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WARMER 925MB TEMPS ON MONDAY IN CONJUNCTION WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 40S
IN MOST AREAS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION AGAIN IS NORTH OF I-94 DUE TO SNOW
COVER AND CLOUD CONCERNS. READINGS THERE MAY ONLY REACH THE UPPER
30S. MONDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES ARE TRICKY. 925MB READINGS ACTUALLY
WARM THROUGH THE NIGHT...REACHING 4-6C AT 12Z TUESDAY. 950MB WINDS
STAY UP AT 20 KT OR MORE FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. HIGHER TERRAIN
LOCATIONS MAY STRUGGLE TO DECOUPLE AS A RESULT...KEEPING LOWS UP
THERE. LOCATIONS THAT DO DECOUPLE COULD DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S/LOW
30S.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
218 AM CST SAT JAN 7 2012
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A PATTERN CHANGE FOR THE LONG TERM PORTION
OF THE FORECAST...ALL STARTED BY THAT POTENT TROUGH COMING INTO
SOUTHWEST CANADA MONDAY NIGHT. INITIALLY TUESDAY LOOKS WELL ABOVE
NORMAL...THANKS TO WARM ADVECTION CONTINUING DOWNSTREAM OF THIS
POTENT TROUGH. 925MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO WARM TO 4-6C BY 18Z
TUESDAY WHICH SHOULD ALLOW MOST LOCATIONS TO SEE HIGHS IN THE 40S...
WITH 50S CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. THE COOL DOWN THEN BEGINS TUESDAY
NIGHT AS THE POTENT TROUGH DIGS DOWN INTO THE DAKOTAS...SENDING A
COLD FRONT THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY.
925MB TEMPS FALL TO -4C TO +2C AT THAT TIME...COLDEST IN SOUTHEAST
MN. THE POTENT TROUGH FULLY MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...SENDING 850MB TEMPS DOWN TO NEAR -20C AND 925MB TEMPS TO
-15C BY 12Z THURSDAY. ACCOMPANYING THE COLD ADVECTION SHOULD BE
SOME STRONG WINDS. RIGHT NOW GUSTS LOOK TO STAY BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA BUT IS SOMETHING TO WATCH. ANOTHER ITEM TO WATCH IS
POTENTIAL FOR FALLING TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY. GIVEN HOW FAR OUT
THIS IS IN THE FORECAST...AND HOW CRITICAL TIMING OF THE COLD AIR
WOULD BE TO HAVE A FALLING TEMPERATURE TREND...HAVE NOT INCLUDED
IT IN THE FORECAST YET. AFTER THURSDAY...UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON HOW
QUICK THE POTENT TROUGH EXITS. THE 07.00Z GFS IS BY FAR THE
FASTEST...EJECTING IT UP INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA ON FRIDAY. THIS
SCENARIO WOULD RESULT IN SOME STRONG WARMING FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT AS 500MB HEIGHTS RISE. THE 07.00Z GFS ENSEMBLES PORTRAY A
SLOWER SCENARIO...PERHAPS SLIGHTLY CLOSER TO THE 07.00Z ECMWF.
THESE SCENARIOS WOULD STILL ALLOW FOR WARMING...BUT NOT AS
AGGRESSIVE...NOTED BY 850MB TEMPS CLIMBING TO AROUND -10C AT 00Z
SATURDAY VERSUS THE GFS WHICH IS AROUND -2C. PREFER THESE SLOWER
SCENARIOS...WHICH IS CLOSE TO WHAT A CONSENSUS BLEND OF
TEMPERATURES WOULD YIELD.
REGARDING PRECIPITATION CHANCES...THE ONLY THREAT OF IT WOULD COME
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS THE POTENT TROUGH COMES ACROSS. MAIN
FEATURE TO WATCH IS IF A TROWAL REGION CAN WRAP BACK INTO THE
FORECAST AREA AS SUGGESTED BY THE 06.00Z AND 07.00Z ECMWF RUNS. FOR
NOW...THERE HAS BEEN TOO MUCH INCONSISTENCY OF THIS FEATURE OF IT
COMING INTO THE FORECAST AREA...BOTH BETWEEN MODELS AND RUN TO RUN.
THEREFORE...PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE HELD TO NO MORE THAN 20 AND
MAINLY NORTH OF I-90.
&&
.AVIATION...TODAY AND TONIGHT
533 AM CST SAT JAN 7 2012
STRATUS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING PRODUCING
PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS. PLAN ON CLOUD BASES IN THE 1900 TO
3000 FT RANGE. THE STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CLEAR THIS
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. NORTHWEST WINDS AT 12
TO 16 KTS...GUSTING TO AROUND 22 KTS...WILL DIMINISH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE 6 TO 8 KT RANGE. LOOK FOR WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE TONIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD. A FEW CIRRUS
CLOUDS MAY SPILL INTO THE REGION TONIGHT FROM A TROUGH MOVING INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
218 AM CST SAT JAN 7 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM....AJ
AVIATION.....WETENKAMP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
305 PM MST SAT JAN 7 2012
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LATEST MOSAIC IMAGERY SHOWING LARGE BAND OF SNOW MOVING ACROSS
BOOKCLIFFS THEN EASTWARD ALONG INTERSTATE 70 TOWARDS GLENWOOD
SPRINGS AND EAGLE. CDOT WEBCAMS ALSO SHOWING PLENTY OF SNOW ALONG
THE CORRIDOR. CROSS-SECTIONS INDICATE RATHER LARGE AREA OF
CONDITIONAL SYMMETRIC INSTABILITY MATCHING UP WITH THIS BAND WHICH
WOULD EXPLAIN THE RAPID SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AT THE SFC DUE TO SOME
SLANTWISE CONVECTION. IF THE BAND STAYS TOGETHER AND CONTINUES TO
DROP SWRD...SOME QUICK ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER GRASSY
SURFACES OVER GRAND VALLEY AND AREAS SOUTH. HAVING SAID THAT...MODELS
DO KEEP THIS BAND TO OUR NORTH WITH SOME SLOW SWRD DRIFT THROUGH
THE AFTN AND EVENING. NORTH OF THIS AREA...SNOW CONTINUES TO FALL
OVER AND NEAR CRAIG...HAYDEN AND MEEKER. HILITES APPEAR TO BE ON
TRACK WITH SOME CONCERN REMAINING FOR THE UNCOMPAGHRE PLATEAU AND
NRN SAN JUANS AS RUC AND HRRR SHOW SOME DEVELOPMENT OVER THAT
AREA. OF COURSE...18Z NAM SHOWS SOME PRECIP BUT NOT ENOUGH TO
WARRANT ANY ADVISORIES. WILL NOT PULL THE TRIGGER YET BUT WILL
KEEP AN EYE ON WEBCAMS...RADAR...SATELLITE AND LOCAL SNOW REPORTS.
SFC COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH AREA QUICKER THAN EXPECTED AND IS
CLEARLY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR AND IR IMAGERY MOVING OVR SERN CO AND
NRN NM. THE UPPER LEVEL TROF AND UPPER LOW REMAIN OVER NERN UT
ATTM AND ARE STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE REGION THIS AFTN INTO
TONIGHT CAUSING MORE SNOWFALL. THUS...MADE LITTLE TO NO CHANGE FOR
OVERNIGHT FORECAST. SINCE SPEED OF SYSTEM HAS INCREASED
SOMEWHAT...AGREE WITH PREVIOUS THINKING THAT HILITES MAY HAVE TO
BE TAKEN DOWN EARLY PROBABLY NEARER TO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. WILL
LEAVE AS IS FOR NOW.
BY SUNDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR AREAS N AND CLEARING SKIES FOR
THE SOUTH. TEMPS WILL RUN NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...OR
ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN SEEN THIS PREVIOUS WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AND PERSIST THROUGH MID-WEEK.
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN
UPPER RIDGE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...SQUEEZED BETWEEN A WRAPPED UP
SOUTHERN PLAINS LOW AND THE NEXT TROF ARRIVING OUT OF THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC. AS SUCH THE DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER THIS PERIOD WITH
THE WARMING ALOFT HELPING TO ENFORCE THE LOW LEVEL
INVERSIONS...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WITH THE NEWER SNOW COVER AND DID
DIRECT TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE. BEYOND THIS
PERIOD CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO WANE WITH DIFFERING MED RANGE MODEL
SOLUTIONS RELATED TO PROGRESSION OF THE WESTERN TROF. THE
DIFFERENCES ARE MOSTLY CENTERED AROUND THE EVOLUTION OF AN UPPER LOW
OVER THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE CONUS AS ENERGY IN THE TROF SPLITS.
THE OPERATIONAL GFS SOLUTION IS SLOWER TO ACHIEVE THIS SPLIT WHICH
CONFLICTS WITH SOME OF IT/S MEMBERS AND WITH A REFLECTION OF A LOW
OFF THE SOCAL COAST IN THE H5 MEAN SOLUTION. THIS SLOWER SOLUTION
WOULD BE A WETTER SOLUTION AND IMPACT MORE OF THE CWA. FOR NOW
FORECAST CONTINUES TO LEAN AWAY FROM THIS TOWARD THE EURO WITH A
MORE NORTHERLY FLOW DOMINATING TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A
CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM DROPS THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WOULD
BRING SOME OROGRAPHICS AND WEAK DYNAMICS TO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW. BEHIND THIS REX BLOCK SETS UP
IN THE WEST WITH DRY AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO THE
CWA FOR THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK.
.AVIATION...
CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWA...AND WILL
BE DROPPING SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE MAIN SYSTEM
DROPS SOUTH OF THE GREAT BASIN. MVFR TO IFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES
CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPPER COLORADO RIVER BASIN INCLUDING THE
EGE AND RIL TERMINALS WHERE MODERATE SNOW BANDING PERSISTS. SLIGHT
IMPROVEMENT TO MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR AND POCKETS OF VFR IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS THE MAIN DYNAMICS OF THE STORM SHIFT
SOUTH. KASE WILL EXPERIENCE LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN A FAVORABLE
NORTHWEST FLOW THIS EVENING WITH IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED AFTER
MIDNIGHT. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION CAN BE EXPECTED TO PERSIST AS WELL
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE LOWER VALLEY TERMINALS OF MTJ
AND GJT LOOK TO PREVAIL AT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THIS STORM
PASSAGE...BUT TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITIONS COULD BE REALIZED AROUND THE
07/22Z-08/02Z TIME FRAME WHEN LIFT LOOKS TO BE ENHANCED OVER THIS
AREA.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST SUNDAY FOR ZONES 002>005-
007>010-012-013.
UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST SUNDAY FOR ZONE 023.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM....15
AVIATION.....15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1030 AM CST SAT JAN 7 2012
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1030 AM CST SAT JAN 7 2012
RIDGING FROM HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA EXTENDS SOUTHEAST
TO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...WITH A STEADY NORTHWEST FLOW CURRENTLY OVER
OUR AREA. LINGERING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS BEHIND THE EARLIER FRONTAL
PASSAGE HAS FINALLY CLEARED THE SOUTHEAST CWA. MAIN MORNING CONCERN
HAS BEEN WITH AN AREA OF STRATOCUMULUS THAT FORMED UPSTREAM ACROSS
MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...LATEST VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING SOME SUBSTANTIAL EROSION ON THE
SOUTHWEST FLANKS. SOME OF THE RESIDUAL CLOUDS CURRENTLY IN EAST
CENTRAL IOWA MAY REACH THE NORTHWEST CWA IN A COUPLE HOURS...BUT
THE BULK OF THE CLOUD SHIELD WILL MISS US TO THE NORTHEAST AS
INDICATED BY THE LATEST RUC RAPID REFRESH MODEL.
UPDATED ZONES/GRIDS WERE RECENTLY SENT TO ADJUST FOR THE LATEST
WIND AND TEMPERATURE TRENDS.
GEELHART
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1030 AM CST SAT JAN 7 2012
UPSTREAM STRATOCUMULUS DECK THAT WAS OF EARLIER CONCERN HAS BEEN
ERODING QUITE A BIT ON ITS SOUTHWEST FLANK. SOME SCATTERED CLOUD
REMNANTS AROUND 2000 FEET MAY AFFECT KPIA BRIEFLY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT 900-850 MB LAYER HUMIDITY PLOT OFF THE RUC
MODEL...WHICH SEEMS TO SIMULATE THE CURRENT CLOUD ALIGNMENT THE
BEST...INDICATES THE REMAINING CEILINGS TO TRACK NORTHEAST OF THE
TAF SITES. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO
ILLINOIS OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN THE CURRENT NORTHWEST WINDS
SWINGING TO THE NORTHEAST BY LATE NIGHT. VFR CEILINGS WELL ABOVE
10KFT EXPECTED TO FORM SUNDAY MORNING...AS SEPARATE NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN JET STREAMS CONVERGE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
GEELHART
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 309 AM CST SAT JAN 7 2012
NOT A LOT OF SURPRISES IN THIS RUN FOR THE FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE MIDWEST FROM THE PLAINS...AND THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET...IF NOT A LITTLE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY...
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. EVEN BEING COOLER...STILL WELL
ABOVE CLIMATE THROUGH THE FIRST PORTION OF THE WEEK. TUES
NIGHT/WED THE MODELS HAVE A BIT OF A DISAGREEMENT AS TO HOW TO
HANDLE THE SPLITTING FLOW...AND THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
FOR PRECIP. OTHER THAN THAT...QUIET AND MILD FORECAST YET AGAIN.
SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TOMORROW...
MILD...SUNNY...AND WARMER THAN AVERAGE TEMPS...THOUGH DOWN A BIT
FROM YESTERDAYS BEHIND THE PASSING DRY COLD FRONT. WINDS
LIGHTENING UP A BIT IN THE OVERNIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF A SIG
PRESSURE GRADIENT...PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTH. SLIGHTLY COOLER
TOMORROW AS CLOUDS STREAM IN FROM THE MAIN SYSTEM WELL TO THE
SOUTHWEST. STILL QUIET AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS IN THE OVERNIGHT AS
WELL. ISSUES BEGIN TO BUILD TOMORROW NIGHT WITH THE FLOW OVER THE
DESERT SW BEGINNING TO SPLIT FROM THE NRN STREAM.
LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
ECMWF...NAM...AND GFS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z RUN OF
THE ECMWF IN POSITION AND TRACK THROUGH FH84. LOW IN THE SW MOVES
UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...CLIPPING THE FAR SW WITH RAIN CHANCES
TUES NIGHT/WED. ECMWF WAS PREVIOUSLY A BIT FURTHER NORTH THAN THIS
LAST RUN...NOW TRENDING WITH THE MORE SOUTHERLY GFS.
HOWEVER...ECMWF IS INTERACTING THIS LOW WITH THE NRN STREAM
LOW/LARGER SCALE TROF WED NIGHT/THURSDAY BRINGING A PROLONGED
CHANCE OF RAIN INTO THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. WILL HAVE TO KEEP
AN EYE ON THAT. GFS IS A LITTLE LESS PROGRESSIVE...KEEPING THE
INTERACTION EAST OF THE REGION...A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE PHASING
OF THAT WAVE. WHILE ANOTHER LOW PARKS OFF THE BAJA COAST AND GETS
READY TO CONTROL THE WEATHER INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
HJS
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1126 AM CST SAT JAN 7 2012
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW DAYS. INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDS TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. PERIODS OF BKN-OVC CLOUD BASES AOA 15K AGL WILL BECOME MOSTLY
CLEAR TO CLEAR AGAIN BY LATE SUNDAY PM AS A WEAK UPPER AIR
DISTURBANCE PASSES WELL TO THE SOUTH. LIGHT NW WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE FAVORING THE SE-S SUNDAY AM INTO
SUNDAY EVENING. ..NICHOLS..
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM CST SAT JAN 7 2012/
SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE THAT SWEPT THE COOL FRONT THROUGH THE REGION
YESTERDAY WAS OVER SE ONTARIO EARLY THIS MORNING. MSAS ANALYSIS
INDICATED A TROUGH EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM THE LOW ACROSS UPPER MI
INTO NORTHERN WI AND CENTRAL MN. SURFACE REPORTS AND SATELLITE FOG
CHANNEL IMAGERY INDICATED A LARGE AREA OF LOW CLOUDS ALONG AND
NORTH OF THIS AXIS OF CYCLONIC FLOW...AND JUST BEHIND THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR CHANNEL EXTENDING FROM
EASTERN UPPER MI TO NORTHERN IL. AT 08Z...THE RAGGED LEADING EDGE
OF THE LOW CLOUDS REACHED FROM THE N CENTRAL IA/MN BORDER TO NEAR
LA CROSSE...AND WAS EXPANDING SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA
AROUND 25 MPH. ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OUT AHEAD OF THE CLOUD
DECK...UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT W-NW WINDS...
TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.
SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
INITIAL FOCUS IS ON CLOUD TRENDS THIS MORNING. DISTANCE TIME TOOL
PLACES THE LEADING EDGE OF THESE CLOUDS INTO THE HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR
IN EASTERN IA AROUND 7 AM. THIS IS CLOSE TO THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
LATEST RUC DEPICTION OF HIGHER MOISTURE IN THE 900-950 LAYER
THAT IS SHOWN SPREADING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST OVER THE ROUGHLY THE
NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MIDDAY. THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST EXTENT MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE BASED ON THE WEAKENING LOW
LEVEL TROUGH AND LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE ANTICYCLONIC TODAY
OVER ESPECIALLY THE WEST AS HIGH PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS
SPREADS EASTWARD. CONSIDERING THIS...AND WITH SUPPORT FROM THE
LATEST VSREF CIG PROBS...WILL HAVE SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY
EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF EASTERN IA AND NW
IL...FOLLOWED BY CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...WILL HAVE
HIGH CLOUDS MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES SPREADING INTO THE AREA FROM
LATE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.
WITH MORE CLOUDS IN THE NORTH...WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S...WHILE
THE SOUTH SHOULD PUSH THE HIGHER END OF GUIDANCE IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S. OVERNIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE
AREA BY SUNRISE. HIGH CLOUD COVER SHOULD CONTAIN TEMPERATURES
DESPITE THE COOL DRY AIRMASS AND LIGHT WINDS. PREVIOUS FORECAST
LOWS FROM THE MID 20S NORTH TO AROUND 30 LOOKED REASONABLE AND
MADE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS. ..SHEETS..
LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY...
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WE REMAIN BETWEEN SYSTEMS AS THE SPLIT FLOW
REGIME WE HAVE BEEN SEEING A LOT OF LATELY AFFECTS THE CONUS. IN THE
SOUTHERN STREAM THERE IS A CUT OFF LOW THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST CONUS...WITH A FASTER MOVING SHORTWAVE RIPPLING ACROSS THE
US/CANADIAN BORDER AND DIPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM CUT OFF LOW
PASSES ACROSS THE MIDWEST ON MONDAY. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WE HAVE
HAD SOME COLDER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES...BUT ONCE IT PASSES WE
SHOULD GET WARM AIR ADVECTION AS RIDGING TO THE WEST ALLOWS WARMER
AIR TO SURGE INTO THE AREA AT THE MID LEVELS. THIS SHOULD ALSO
PRODUCE A MUCH WARMER DAY ON TUESDAY OVER SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS 850MB
TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE POSITIVE 4-6 DEGREE RANGE AFTER HAVING
BEEN LINGERING AROUND NEGATIVE 4 FOR SUNDAY...ONLY SLOWLY WARMING TO
0 TO NEGATIVE 2 FOR MONDAY. THUS...HAVE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IN
TEMPS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH A MORE SIGNIFICANT WARM UP FOR
TUESDAY.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY THINGS GET A BIT MORE INTERESTING...BUT
ALSO UNCERTAIN. AS THE SOUTHERN STREAM CUT OFF LOW SLOWLY WORKS OFF
TO THE EAST ALONG THE GULF COAST...THE MODELS BRING DOWN A FAIRLY
STRONG TROUGH OUT OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND BRING IT DOWN ACROSS
THE MIDWEST ON WEDNESDAY...BRINGING MUCH COLDER AIR AND SOME
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. HOWEVER...THE MODELS HAVE SOME FAIRLY
SIGNIFICANT DISCREPANCIES IN TIMING AND STRENGTH AND IN RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY AT THIS TIME. THE LATEST 00Z ECMWF CAME IN WITH A MUCH
STRONGER SOLUTION THAN PREVIOUS OR OTHER MODELS...AND AM VIEWING
THIS RATHER PESSIMISTIC SOLUTION WITH SKEPTICISM. EITHER WAY...WE
ARE LOOKING A NOTICEABLE COOL DOWN FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT. MOISTURE MAY BE A LIMITING FACTOR
FOR ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND HAVE KEPT POPS
NEGLIGIBLE AT THIS TIME...THOUGH ANTICIPATE THAT THEY MAY NEED TO BE
RAISED. FRIDAY THERE IS SOME RECOVERY IN THE TEMPERATURES BEHIND
THE WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY SYSTEM...BUT MUCH IS GOING TO DEPEND ON WHAT
THAT SYSTEM DOES BEFORE WE CAN HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE IN THE FRIDAY
FORECAST. ..LE..
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
NICHOLS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
308 PM EST SAT JAN 7 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF A FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR
INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE NORTHEAST OF PITTSBURGH TONIGHT AND
EARLY SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE WEST,
ALLOWING FOR QUIET WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO
TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
THE LATEST RUC MID-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
IN A ZONAL FLOW. AT THE SURFACE, A 1003MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED
ACROSS QUEBEC WITH A 1024MB HIGH IS CENTERED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE SURFACE LOW
INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE RIDGES.
THERE IS WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH LITTLE
TO SHOW WITH ITS PASSAGE ASIDE FROM A WIND SHIFT TO WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY.
TONIGHT...THE NAM/HRRR ARE INDICATING THAT WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION
ALONG WITH THE 850MB FLOW SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY WILL BE ENOUGH
FOR A SCHC OF SNOW SHOWERS NORTH OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR. OTHERWISE,
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT WITH
A DRY FORECAST IN PLACE. ONGOING WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
ALLOW FOR NOTICEABLY COLDER LOWS TONIGHT, RANGING FROM THE MID TO
UPPER 20S ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THERE IS NAM/GFS/ECMWF AGREEMENT THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE
FROM THE MISSOURI VALLEY INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER THROUGH WITH A RELATIVELY
BENIGN AND WARM SPELL FOR JANUARY.
A NORTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES PRIMARILY NORTH AND EAST OF PITTSBURGH EARLY ON
SUNDAY. CLOUD COVERAGE WILL DECREASE LATE IN THE DAY AS THE LOW-
LEVEL FLOW BECOMES ZONAL. AFTERWARD, A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE CAN
BE EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE A MAV/MET
BLEND, RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE I-80 CORRIDOR AND
EASTERN RIDGES TO THE LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE. WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION
WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO BE PROGRESSIVELY WARMER MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE WESTERN GULF STATES ACROSS
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE CHANCE OF
RAIN WILL ARRIVE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THE LOW
PUSHES NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA. MODEL THICKNESSES WILL WARM ABOVE
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS THAT WOULD BE NEEDED FOR A WINTRY MIX, SO
FORECAST IS FOR ALL RAIN TO BEGIN THE EVENT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE MID-WEEK.
RAIN WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS THE LOW MOVES ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA AND INTO THE NORTHEAST. BY
THURSDAY MORNING LOW WILL BE EXITING EAST AS QUITE STRONG NORTHERN
BRANCH CLOSED UPPER LOW DIGS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS NORTHERN
BRANCH LOW WILL BRING MUCH COLDER AIR INTO REGION STARTING THURSDAY
AND CONTINUING INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND. RAIN SHOWERS WILL MIX
WITH AND CHANGE TO SNOW THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW
SHOWERS INTO FRIDAY. BY SATURDAY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO 5 TO 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL LATE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT WILL BE
WELL EAST OF THE RIDGES. AS A BIT COOLER AIR AT 850MB WORKS ACROSS
LAKES SUNDAY MORNING MVFR CIGS LOOK TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN
TERMINALS WITH VFR CIGS ELSEWHERE. GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH LATER TUESDAY NIGHT WITH RESTRICTIONS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
117 PM EST SAT JAN 7 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING AND
BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. QUIET WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
18Z ENHANCED SHORT TERM FORECAST UPDATE HAS BEEN ISSUED TO REMOVE
POPS ACROSS THE RIDGE COUNTIES.
THE LATEST RUC MID-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A 500MB SHORT WAVE
TROUGH SWINGING ACROSS ONTARIO WITH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY IN A
ZONAL FLOW SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE. AT THE SURFACE, A 1004MB SURFACE
LOW IS CENTERED ACROSS QUEBEC WITH A 1025MB HIGH IS CENTERED
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM
THE SURFACE LOW INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND HAS PUSHED EAST OF
A LINE FROM DUBOIS TO PITTSBURGH TO NEW MARTINSVILLE. THERE IS WEAK
COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH LITTLE TO SHOW WITH ITS
PASSAGE ASIDE FROM A WIND SHIFT TO WESTERLY AND SOME MID- DECK
CLOUDS BEHIND IT.
THIS AFTERNOON...THE WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE AREA. THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE DRY. HIGH TEMPS ARE CLOSEST TO A HRRR/LAMP
BLEND, RANGING FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS SOUTH AND EAST
OF PITTSBURGH TO THE MID 40S ACROSS THE I-80 CORRIDOR.
TONIGHT...THE NAM/HRRR ARE INDICATING THAT WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION
ALONG WITH THE 850MB FLOW SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY WILL BE ENOUGH
FOR A SCHC OF SNOW SHOWERS NORTH OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR. OTHERWISE,
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT WITH
A DRY FORECAST IN PLACE. ONGOING WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
ALLOW FOR NOTICEABLY COLDER LOWS TONIGHT, RANGING FROM THE MID TO
UPPER 20S ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE ACROSS REGION SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY IN A SPLIT FLOW IN THE JET STREAM ACROSS THE U.S. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE NEAR TO ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THERE IS GFS/ECMWF AGREEMENT THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY AND KEEP THE FORECAST DRY MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
A CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW WILL THEN MOVE FROM THE WESTERN GULF STATES
ACROSS THE THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT AHEAD OF
THE LOW PUSHES NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA. MODEL THICKNESSES WILL WARM
ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS THAT WOULD BE NEEDED FOR A WINTRY MIX, SO
FORECAST IS FOR ALL RAIN TO BEGIN THE EVENT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE MID-WEEK.
RAIN WILL BE LIKELY FOR AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF PITTSBURGH WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA AND INTO
THE NORTHEAST. 12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF ARE OFF IN TIMING OF THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM AND FORECAST SIDES WITH
THE FASTER GFS, TURNING PRECIP OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA BY
THURSDAY MORNING. CHANCE POPS ARE FORECAST FOR THE RIDGES AND LAKE
EFFECT COUNTIES AS COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALLOWS FOR SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE
ARCTIC AIR MASS IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING TEMPS CLOSER
TO NORMAL VALUES ON THURSDAY, DROPPING TO 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BY
FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. A WEAK FRONT HAS PUSHED EAST OF
KPIT/KMGW AND WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY FOR
THE TERMINALS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT.
OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON SATURDAY NIGHT WITH GENERAL VFR
CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED UNTIL THE APPROACH OF LOW PRESSURE DURING
THE MID WEEK.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
408 PM EST SAT JAN 7 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED WNW MID/UPPER LEVEL NRN STREAM
FLOW THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. A WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT HAS HELPED
BOOST LES INTENSITY TODAY WAS EXITING TO THE EAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR.
OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT SHRTWVS WERE NOTED UPSTREAM THAT WOULD
IMPACT WEATHER THROUGH SUN. AT THE SFC...A TROUGH FRONT WAS NEARLY
STATIONARY ACROSS NRN UPPER MI. 850 MB TEMPS NEAR -14C PROVIDED JUST
ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR LIGHT LES WITH LOW LEVEL NW FLOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
WEAKER AND INCREASINGLY ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WITH SFC RDG MOVING IN
FROM THE WEST WILL TEND TO BACK WINDS MORE WRLY LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. THE MOST FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL CONV WOULD FOCUS LES OVER THE
KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND FROM MUNISING EASTWARD ALONG THE ERN
SHORELINE. MAINTAINED HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POPS FOR ADDITIONAL LES
ACCUMS OF AN INCH OR LESS OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND ERN
ALGER...LUCE AND NRN SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO
THE SOUTH.
A BAND OF 275K-280K ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND 900-800 MB FGEN MOVING
INTO THE WEST LATE AND ACROSS THE CWA LATE TONIGHT AND SUN MORNING
COULD PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW WITH MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS OF A FEW
TENTHS. SO...ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE INCLUDED AWAY FROM LAKE
SUPERIOR. LOW LEVEL BACKING MORE WRLY BY SUNDAY ALONG WITH MARGINAL
LAKE INSTABILITY (850 MB TEMPS CLIMBING TO AROUND -12C) SUPPORT ONLY
LOW CHC POPS FOR LES OVER MAINLY THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND
SHORELINE AREAS EAST OF MUNISING. WITH THE LIGHT WIND FIELD
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WHETHER ANY MESO LOW OR SHORELINE PARALLEL BAND
WILL DEVELOP...PER HIGH RES WRF/ARW.
.LONG TERM /00Z MON THROUGH NEXT SAT/...
STARTING MONDAY AT 00Z THERE WILL BE A BROAD 500MB TROUGH OVER ERN
CANADA/NERN CONUS...WITH A SHARP TROUGH BRANCHING OFF OF THAT FROM
OVER OUR CWA TO THE AZ/NM BORDER...AND A 500MB RIDGE W OF THAT
TROUGH. BY TUESDAY...THE AZ/NM TROUGH WILL CLOSE OFF AND MOVE TO
TX...BREAKING FREE OF THE ERN CANADA TROUGH AS IT MOVES E. ANOTHER
SYSTEM WILL PUSH INTO THE PACIFIC NW...WHICH WILL PUSH THE W COAST
RIDGE OVER THE CWA DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. MODELS HAVE HAD POOR RUN
TO RUN CONTINUITY WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING IN FOR THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK. MODELS BRING AN UPPER TROUGH OFF A CLOSED LOW OVER AK INTO
THE REGION...DEEPENING IT INTO A CLOSED LOW NEAR OR OVER THE CWA
WED. THE CLOSED LOW MOVES OFF TO THE NE THU NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH
AN UPPER TROUGH HANGING AROUND E OF THE CWA THROUGH SATURDAY.
FOR MON...A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION...BUT THE BEST
DYNAMICS WILL BE FARTHER NE...SO ANY POPS WERE LIMITED TO LAKE
SUPERIO OR ERN UPPER MI. EVEN WITH CLOUD COVER FROM THIS
SYSTEM...HIGH WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S WITH WAA FROM THE W
THROUGH THE DAY. 850MB TEMPS AT 00Z MON WILL BE AROUND
-9C...INCREASING TO AROUND 0C BY 00Z TUE.
MON NIGHT AND TUE...AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD TUE...EXPECT
DRY CONDITIONS WITH FEWER CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY BEFORE EVENING.
THICKNESSES WILL BE SLIGHTLY INCREASED TUE...SO HIGHS WILL BE A
COUPLE DEGREES WARMER AROUND 40.
WED THROUGH FRI...AS NOTED PREVIOUSLY...MODELS SHOW INCREASED
DISAGREEMENT AND DECREASED RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY WITH A SYSTEM
EJECTING OUT OF AK. COMPARING THE 12Z/07 GFS...00Z/07 ECMWF...AND
12Z/07 GEM SOLUTIONS...THE GEM WAS RULED OUT SINCE IT SHOWS A FAR
DIFFERENT SCENARIO THAN THE OTHER TWO MODELS. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
BRING A 500MB TROUGH FROM A CLOSED LOW OVER AK...SHOWING A LOW
CLOSING OFF FROM THE TIP OF THE TROUGH AS IT MOVES SE. MODELS THEN
DEPICT THE TROUGH MOVING TOWARD THE CWA BEFORE DEEPENING JUST
UPSTREAM OF THE CWA IN RESPONSE TO JET INTERACTION. THE GFS CLOSES
THE UPPER LOW OFF AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL MANITOBA/ONTARIO
BORDER AROUND 18Z WED...AND MARCHES IT JUST N OF LAKE SUPERIOR
BEFORE MOVING INTO QUEBEC AROUND 06Z FRI. THE STRONGER ECMWF CLOSES
THE LOW OFF OVER THE ND/MANITOBA BORDER AROUND 12Z WED...THEN
CONTINUES TO DEEPEN THE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES TO THE IL/WI BORDER BY
12Z THU...THEN TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY 12Z FRI. SET THE CLOCK
BACK A BIT TO FIND WHERE MODELS START TO DIVERGE WITH THIS SYSTEM.
BACK WHEN THE TROUGH IS MOVING OVER WRN CANADA...THE SLIGHTLY
STRONGER ECMWF IS MUCH FASTER TO CLOSE OFF THAT LOW...WHICH THEN
MOVES S AND STAYS WELL OFF THE CA COAST THROUGH THE EVENT. THE
GFS...ON THE OTHER HAND...CLOSES THE LOW OFF OVER SRN CA...WHICH
LEADS TO THAT LOW MOVING INTO AZ AND NM THROUGH THE EVENT. HAVING
THAT LOW IN PLACE THE GFS PUTS IT CUTS OFF SOME ACCESS TO COMPONENTS
OF BOTH THE NRN AND SRN STREAM JETS...WHICH IS WHY THE SYSTEM DOES
NOT STRENGTHEN AS MUCH AND STAYS FARTHER N WITH THE GFS SOLUTION.
REGARDLESS OF SOLUTION...BOTH MODELS BRING 850MB TEMPS AS LOW AS
-20C OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WITH THE SYSTEM. THE GFS HAS NW BL
WINDS...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS MORE NORTHERLY WINDS SINCE THE SFC LOW
WILL BE MORE TO OUR E. AT THIS POINT...I FEEL COMFORTABLE WITH
LIKELY POPS SINCE CONFIDENCE THAT IT WILL SNOW IS MUCH HIGHER THAN
THE CONFIDENCE OF WHERE THE MOST SNOW WILL FALL. IF THE ECMWF IS
CORRECT...WE COULD BE LOOKING AT VERY SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY IN NORTH WIND SNOWBELTS. THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD
LEAD TO MUCH LOWER SNOWFALL TOTALS THAN THE ECMWF...SINCE THE ECMWF
ALSO CONTRIBUTES A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SYNOPTIC PRECIP.
&&
.AVIATION /FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
OCCASIONAL LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST AT KCMX THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD. LOW LEVEL FLOW IS ONSHORE/UPSLOPE...AND TEMPS AT TOP OF
LAKE EFFECT LAYER WILL REMAIN COLD ENOUGH FOR LES. GIVEN LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR FM THE NORTH AND WEST...EXPECT VSBY IN SNOW
SHOWERS TO BE MAINLY IFR THROUGH THIS EVENING.
MVFR CIGS WITH SOME FLURRIES AT TIMES ARE EXPECTED AT KIWD AND KSAW.
DOWNSLOPE WINDS AND DRYING MAY EVEN ALLOW SKIES TO SCATTER OUT AT
KSAW THIS AFTN. BY LATE TONIGHT...WEAK SFC LOW WAVE COULD DRIFT
ACROSS LK SUPERIOR. MAIN IMPACT WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES OF LOWER
CIGS AT ALL THREE TAF SITES.
&&
.MARINE /FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE/...
LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS ONTARIO THROUGH MONDAY.
STRONG PRESSURE FALLS NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND AN INCREASING
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN GALE FORCE SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS OVER MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR ON MONDAY. A GALE WATCH REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR THIS TIME FRAME. WINDS SETTLE DOWN BY TUESDAY WITH
WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT...BUT INCREASE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM/STRONG COLD FRONT PUSH ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION. EXACT WIND DIRECTION/SPEEDS ARE UNCERTAIN FOR
WEDNESDAY...BUT EVENTUALLY N/NW WINDS SHOULD REACH GALE OR NEAR GALE
FORCE BY THURSDAY IN WAKE OF THE LOW PRESSURE/COLD FRONT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
LSZ162-263>266.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JLB
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1230 PM CST SAT JAN 7 2012
.UPDATE...MIDDAY WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A MID LEVEL SHORT
WAVE OVER WYOMING AND UTAH...MOVING EAST/SOUTHEAST. A MID LEVEL
DRY INTRUSION IS ALSO NOTED ADVANCING EAST/NORTHEAST FROM THE
FOUR-CORNERS REGION INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. MID LEVEL
THERMAL ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS WAVE IS PROMOTING WIDESPREAD CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. RADAR DATA FROM KUEX ALSO SHOW HIGH
LEVEL RETURNS AROUND 6000FT AGL...BUT DRY LOW LEVELS HAVE
PREVENTED PRECIPITATION FROM BEING OBSERVED AT THE SURFACE THUS
FAR. THE 09Z SREF-MEAN...12Z OPERATIONAL GFS...AS WELL AS THE 00Z
EC ALL INDICATE PRECIPITATION WILL BE REALIZED ACROSS WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH
THE 12Z NAM KEEPING OUR ENTIRE CWA DRY THROUGH 00Z. SURFACE DEW
POINT DEPRESSIONS AS OF 18Z ARE GENERALLY IN THE 10-15 DEGREE
RANGE...WITH PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS FROM RUC ANALYSIS AND LAPS
INDICATING THIS DRY AIR EXISTS UP TO ABOUT 8000 OR 9000FT AGL.
OBVIOUSLY SOME PRECIPITATION IS MAKING IT AS LOW AS 6000FT AGL PER
KUEX...BUT WITH SUCH DRY AIR THROUGH THE LOWER LEVELS...FINDING IT
HARD TO BELIEVE MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE REALIZED
ACROSS OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON. THAT BEING SAID...WENT AHEAD
DECREASED POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO RELEGATED AFTERNOON POPS
TO LOCATIONS WEST OF HIGHWAY 10...WHICH IS WHERE THE OPERATIONAL
GFS...SREF-MEAN AND EC ALL SUGGEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX MAY BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME PRECIPITATION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1137 AM CST SAT JAN 7 2012/
AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 08Z...WITH
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THEREAFTER. MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE TERMINAL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
SOME GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST STRATUS WILL INFILTRATE THE TERMINAL
AROUND 08Z WITH CEILINGS NEAR 400FT AGL. THIS GUIDANCE IS
CURRENTLY IN THE MINORITY HOWEVER GIVEN MOST ALL OTHER MODEL
OUTPUT SUGGEST CEILINGS SHOULD NOT DROP MUCH BELOW 6000FT AGL. LOW
LEVEL THERMAL ADVECTION WILL CERTAINLY BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA
GIVEN THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP...BUT LIMITED MOISTURE BETWEEN
925MB AND 800MB COULD PREVENT STRATUS FORMATION FROM BEING
REALIZED. CERTAINLY NOT COMFORTABLE IGNORING THE THREAT FOR LOW
CEILINGS ALTOGETHER BUT ALSO NOT READY TO FORECAST LIFR...SO WILL
SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE FOR NOW AND GO MVFR 08Z-18Z. SURFACE WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
ARE NOT CURRENTLY FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...HOWEVER IT
IS WORTH NOTING SOME GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS RESTRICTED
VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 06Z. CURRENT THINKING IS SKIES
WOULD HAVE TO CLEAR OUT FOR SUFFICIENT SURFACE COOLING AND
SATURATION...AND SINCE THE CURRENT TAF CALLS FOR STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT WILL GO AHEAD AND HOLD OFF ON VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
FOR NOW. THE POSSIBILITY FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED HOWEVER SHOULD STRATUS FAIL TO MATERIALIZE EARLY SUNDAY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 AM CST SAT JAN 7 2012/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. COOLER
WEATHER...ALTHOUGH STILL WARMER THAN NORMAL...IS EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND. IN ADDITION...LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
I-80 CORRIDOR WEST OF GRAND ISLAND.
FORECAST MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF OF SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FOR
TONIGHT...AND WE WERE NOT EXPECTING MUCH TO BEGIN WITH.
PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL LIKELY BE ALL SNOW ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE
A BRIEF PERIOD OF SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT RAIN THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE WEST PRIOR TO CHANGING OVER. THE SFC WET BULB
TEMPERATURE WILL QUICKLY GO BELOW FREEZING AS THE VERTICAL PROFILE
SATURATES AND PRECIPITATION BEGINS. THE WARMEST LAYER IS THE SFC
SO IF THE SFC WET BULB TEMPERATURE IS AROUND OR BELOW FREEZING
THEN ALL OR NEARLY ALL OF ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS SHOULD FALL
AS SNOW.
THERE ARE SEVERAL FACTORS THAT WILL KEEP SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LESS
THAN 1 INCH...AND LIKELY EVEN LESS THAN THAT AT ONLY A DUSTING UP
TO A HALF INCH. FIRST...THIS IS A FAST MOVING STORM SYSTEM COMING
OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND THE BULK OF THE LIFT/FORCING
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW AS IT CUTS
OFF TO OUR SOUTHWEST ACROSS PORTIONS OF COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO.
SECOND...THE SYSTEM IS MOISTURE STARVED DUE TO ITS TRACK OVER THE
ROCKIES AND IT FAILS TO TAP INTO ANY KIND OF GULF MOISTURE. SO
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL BE AN ISSUE. THE FACT THAT THE FORECAST
MODELS ARE ALSO DECREASING QPF VALUES AS THE STORM APPROACHES IS
NOT A GOOD SIGN FOR ANY SNOW LOVERS OUT THERE. CONSEQUENTLY...WILL
BE CALLING FOR A LESS THAN 50/50 CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING SNOW LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE MOST FAVORABLE TIME FRAME
AND LOCATION FOR SEEING SNOW WILL BE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FOR SOUTHERN NEBRASKA LOCATIONS WEST OF HWY 281. FOR
EASTERN ZONES IT WILL PROBABLY ONLY BE A FEW FLURRIES OR A BRIEF
PERIOD OF VERY LIGHT SNOW LATER TONIGHT.
THE SHORT WAVE IS QUICK TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SUBSEQUENT WARM AIR MOVING IN ALOFT WILL
HELP TEMPERATURES CLIMB BACK TO AROUND 50 BY MONDAY. WENT ABOVE
MOST MODEL GUIDANCE AS THAT HAS BEEN THE TREND LATELY GIVEN OUR
LACK OF SNOW COVER...WHICH SHOULD STILL BE THE CASE ON MONDAY.
LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE
TEMPERATURES. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TUESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE MILD AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. THE COLDER AIR DOES NOT REALLY MOVE INTO THE FORECAST
AREA UNTIL WEDNESDAY WHEN THERE WILL BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF A
DIURNAL RISE DURING THE DAY. IN ADDITION TO THE COLD AIR THERE WILL
ALSO BE BREEZY CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT AND INITIALLY ON WEDNESDAY
BEFORE WINDS ALOFT DIMINISH SOME. THE COLD AIR COMES IN STRONG
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE AREA. COOLER
TEMPERATURES LINGER INTO THURSDAY BUT WARM ADVECTION STARTS TO WARM
THINGS BACK UP AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE/AVIATION...BRYANT
SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...BERG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
321 PM CST SAT JAN 7 2012
.DISCUSSION...
THE WEAK COLD FRONT HAS SLOWED DRAMATICALLY ACROSS EAST TEXAS AND
OUR THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES TODAY WITH MINIMAL PRESSURE RISES BEHIND
THE FRONT. A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH IN THE 925-850MB LAYER HAS BEEN
NEARLY STATIONARY AS WELL OVER THE I-35 CORRIDOR/RED RIVER VALLEY
ALL DAY. THIS HAS RESULTED IN WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT THAT IS
HOLDING STRATUS OVER NORTHERN COUNTIES AND MAKING THE FORECAST
DIFFICULT WITH REGARD TO CLOUD COVER AND TEMPERATURES. MEANWHILE
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AND DEEPEN OVER THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES.
THE HRRR/WRF AND RUC BAK40 SOUNDINGS ALL INDICATE AT LEAST SOME
POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT
AND A TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT UP THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER
THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY. WE ARE INSERTING PATCHY FOG EAST OF A
BOWIE...MINERAL WELLS...KILLEEN LINE WITH MORE COVERAGE OF LIGHT
FOG ACROSS THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES. TOO DIFFICULT TO ASCERTAIN IF
ANY FOG WILL BE DENSE AT THIS TIME. ANY FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY
AFTERNOON AS NORTH WINDS MIX TO AROUND 10 MPH OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER
THOUGH SOUTHEAST COUNTIES WILL HAVE LIGHTER NORTHEAST WINDS.
ISENTROPIC LIFT BEGINS OVER THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON IN DEVELOPING WAA REGIME ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES.
THE ROCKIES DISTURBANCE WILL DEEPEN AND CLOSE OFF OVER AZ/NM AS
WELL. LIGHT RAIN SHOULD SLOWLY DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST BY
AFTERNOON...THEN OVERSPREAD NORTH TEXAS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT INCREASES WITH PLENTY OF FETCH FROM THE GULF
OF MEXICO. A GOOD STEADY RAIN IS EXPECTED INTO MONDAY EVENING.
1-2 INCHES OF BENEFICIAL RAINFALL WILL LIKELY OCCUR OVER THE FULL
DURATION WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 3 INCHES POSSIBLE
ACROSS FAR SOUTHEASTERN AREAS. HAVE MAINTAINED ISOLATED/EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE-SCALE LIFT INTENSIFYING AND LAPSE RATES
ALOFT INCREASING TO NEAR 7 DEG/C.
THE UPPER LOW SLIDES OVER WEST TX BY MONDAY EVENING...THEN MODELS
CONTINUE TO DIVERGE ON ACTUAL STRENGTH/TRACK MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
WILL USE A MEAN OF THE TRACKS WITH COLDEST AIR ALOFT TRACKING
ACROSS AREAS JUST NORTHWEST OF THE DFW METROPLEX. WITH THIS IN
MIND...A RAIN/SNOW SHOWER MIX COULD OCCUR WITH DYNAMIC COOLING AND
COLDER SURFACE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
WESTERN COUNTIES. BOTH SURFACE AND GROUND TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN WELL ABOVE FREEZING BUT PROFILES ALOFT MAY SUPPORT SOME
SNOW MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN. IF ANY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WERE TO
OCCUR...IT WOULD BE MINOR AND BRIEF ON ELEVATED SURFACES OR
GRASSY AREAS. DETAILS REMAIN FUZZY WE DO NOT EXPECT A MAJOR
WINTER EVENT WITH THIS SYSTEM. A DRY NOSE DOES APPEAR TO ARRIVE
TUESDAY FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND GET INGESTED INTO THE SYSTEM WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOWERING QUICKLY FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS THE
UPPER LOW LIFTS TOWARD THE OZARKS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY
TUESDAY NIGHT.
A STRONGER COLD FRONT TAPPING AIR FROM ALASKA AND WESTERN CANADA
ARRIVES THURSDAY/FRIDAY A STEEP UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN
STATES AND A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. MEANWHILE...THE GFS AND ECMWF AS SWAPPED SOLUTIONS
REGARDING A POSSIBLE SOUTHERN PIECE OF ENERGY MOVING ACROSS RIGHT
AROUND THAT TIME FRAME. FOR NOW...WE ARE MAINTAINING A DRY...BRISK
AND COLD FORECAST AND UNDERCUTTING MOS TEMPERATURES BY A GOOD 5
DEGREES OR MORE PER PATTERN RECOGNITION. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT HIGHS
MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED IN UPCOMING FORECASTS IF IT BECOMES EVIDENT
THAT THIS IS TRUE ARCTIC AIR ORIGIN.
WE WILL CONTINUE TO FINE TUNE THE LATE WEEK FORECAST ONCE WE GET
PAST OUR FIRST SYSTEM FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK.
05/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 43 57 44 46 40 / 5 10 80 100 70
WACO, TX 39 63 46 49 39 / 10 20 90 100 50
PARIS, TX 45 56 43 51 40 / 10 20 70 100 90
DENTON, TX 36 55 39 44 38 / 10 10 70 90 80
MCKINNEY, TX 38 57 41 47 39 / 10 10 70 100 80
DALLAS, TX 44 58 45 47 41 / 5 10 80 100 70
TERRELL, TX 42 58 46 50 40 / 10 20 80 100 80
CORSICANA, TX 42 61 48 53 41 / 10 20 90 100 70
TEMPLE, TX 40 65 46 49 39 / 10 20 90 100 40
MINERAL WELLS, TX 34 57 37 42 36 / 5 10 70 90 60
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
/05
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS FORT WORTH TX
1200 PM CST SAT JAN 7 2012
.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/
CONCERNS...CIGS EARLY...POTENTIAL FOR CIGS/VSBY ISSUES SUNDAY AM.
SURFACE LOW NEAR PARIS IS MAKING MINIMAL PROGRESS EAST...KEEPING
WRAP-AROUND CIGS IN PLACE OVER METRO TAF SITES. DESPITE COOL
BOUNDARY LAYER...STILL EXPECT CIGS BENEATH FRONTAL INVERSION TO
GRADUALLY LIFT ABOVE 2KFT AS POSTFRONTAL LAYER DEEPENS...
DISSIPATING MID-AFTERNOON.
WITH A WEAK GRADIENT...LOW MAY RETREAT WEST TONIGHT. AT THIS
POINT...EXPECT MAIN INFLUX OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE EAST OF
TAF SITES. WILL HAVE TO WATCH MOTION CAREFULLY...AS CIGS MAY NOT
BE FAR AWAY SUNDAY MORNING. WITH LIGHT WINDS...SOME REDUCTIONS IN
VSBY MAY RESULT. FOR NOW...WILL FORGO INCLUDING EITHER CIGS OR
VSBY ISSUES...BUT WILL NEED TO REASSESS WITH FUTURE ISSUANCES.
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL ENSUE SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING
SYSTEM. HAVE INTRODUCED BKN060 OVC150 INTO TAFACT AND EXTENDED
PORTION OF TAFDFW. AGREE WITH CWSU ZFW THAT ANY LIGHT RAIN SHOULD
OCCUR BEYOND CURRENT TAF PERIODS.
25
&&
.UPDATE...
ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 285K-290K ISENTROPIC RUC SURFACES SHOW
THAT BOUNDARY LAYER STRATUS 012-025 KFT WILL LINGER ACROSS PARTS
OF NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST
EARLY-MID AFTERNOON PER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE FORECASTS. MODELS
ARE STRUGGLING ON TIMING OF DEPARTURE TO THE EAST OF THE CLOUDS
AND THE FRONTAL PUSH THIS AFTERNOON. PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT ARE ONLY ON THE ORDER OF 1-2MB/3 HR.
HAVE ALSO INCREASED NORTHWEST WINDS WITH SOME GUSTINESS THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON PER BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ON LOCAL PROFILERS LIKELY
TO MIX BY MIDDAY. THE CONTINUED CAA AND LINGERING STRATUS ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST HALF OF NORTH TEXAS HAS LED US TO LOWER HIGHS ACROSS
THESE COUNTIES INTO THE LOWER AND MID 50S...INCLUDING THE DFW
METROPLEX. THIS MAY BE OPTIMISTIC IF CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON IS
SLOWER THAN ANTICIPATED.
05
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CST SAT JAN 7 2012/
SOME CHANGES WILL TAKE PLACE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS WHICH WILL RESULT IN SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN FOR THE
REGION. INITIALLY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS
TODAY AND BRING COOLER AND DRIER AIR. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE
ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN FRIDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S....EXCEPT FOR A FEW READINGS IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES. MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE ACROSS TEXAS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEEPENS NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN A CLOUDY
DAY SUNDAY WITH A FEW SHOWERS IN THE SOUTH...THEN INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS LARGE SCALE FORCING INTERACTS
WITH THE MOISTURE. THE MODELS ARE FINALLY STARTING TO AGREE MORE
ON THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM. IT APPEARS THAT ALL OF
NORTH TEXAS WILL SEE APPRECIABLE RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST ON TUESDAY. THERE
IS EVEN A CHANCE OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE NORTHWEST ZONES
OVERNIGHT MONDAY/TUESDAY MORNING AS THE CORE OF THE UPPER LOW TRACKS
OVER THE REGION. EVEN IF THE NAM SOLUTION...WHICH IS THE
COLDEST...VERIFIES...LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL BE TOO
WARM FOR ANY TYPE OF SNOW ACCUMULATION. SO FOR NOW WILL JUST
MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR A MIX AND ALLOW LATER SHIFTS TO REFINE
AND ADJUST. ALL PRECIPITATION SHOULD END ACROSS NORTH TEXAS
TUESDAY NIGHT BUT RAINFALL TOTALS SHOULD AVERAGE BETWEEN 1 AND 2
INCHES IN MOST LOCATIONS WITH EVEN SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN
THE EAST. SINCE RAINFALL SHOULD OCCUR OVER A 24 TO 36 HOUR TIME
SPAN...THE TREAT OF FLOODING SHOULD BE LOW. WILL MENTION ISOLATED
THUNDER WITH THIS EVENT SINCE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SOME ELEVATED CORES.
MID WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL
WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE. IT
DOES APPEAR THAT ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY WILL DEVELOP IN THE
SOUTHERN JET STREAM BY THE WEEKEND AND MAY BRING RAIN CHANCES BACK
TO NORTH TEXAS BY NEXT SATURDAY OR SUNDAY.
79
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 56 43 64 43 48 / 5 5 10 70 70
WACO, TX 62 43 63 45 50 / 5 5 20 70 70
PARIS, TX 56 45 62 42 50 / 5 5 10 70 60
DENTON, TX 55 36 61 38 47 / 5 5 10 70 60
MCKINNEY, TX 54 38 63 40 48 / 5 5 10 60 60
DALLAS, TX 56 44 63 44 48 / 5 5 10 70 70
TERRELL, TX 57 42 62 45 50 / 10 5 10 60 70
CORSICANA, TX 62 45 66 47 52 / 10 5 20 60 70
TEMPLE, TX 65 45 67 45 48 / 5 5 20 80 70
MINERAL WELLS, TX 58 34 60 36 45 / 5 5 10 70 70
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
25/05
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1125 AM CST SAT JAN 7 2012
.UPDATE...AREA OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH NORTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. EXPECT THIS BAND OF CLOUDS TO CONTINUE
SOUTHEAST AND CLIP THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
DRY AIR ERODING CLOUDS IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM OF THE AREA...WITH
ANOTHER DECK OF CLOUDS OVER EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. THIS DECK MAY
ERODE AS WELL AS IT SHIFTS SOUTHEAST...SO FOR NOW WILL TREND TO
MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WEST AND SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN INTO THE MID 30S IN CLOUDY AREAS...WITH
MID TO UPPER 30S IN SUNNIER AREAS. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BATTLE
SUNSHINE AND MIXING...BUT MAY HAVE TO RAISE TEMPERATURES ANOTHER
DEGREE OR SO IN THESE AREAS IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE.
&&
.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...MVFR CLOUDS WILL AFFECT EASTERN TAF SITES
THROUGH ABOUT 20Z THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE MOVING OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST. CLEARING SKIES THEN ARE EXPECTED AT TAF SITES THROUGH
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY WEST NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. AREA OF VFR
CLOUDS MAY CLIP THE AREA THIS EVENING...BUT MAY ERODE OR STAY
NORTH OF TAF SITES...SO WILL NOT PUT CEILINGS IN TAFS AT THIS
TIME.
PASSING HIGH PRESSURE LATER TONIGHT WILL BRING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS...WITH WINDS SHIFTING SOUTHWEST AND REMAINING LIGHT ON
SUNDAY. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES LATER TONIGHT AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED...AS HIGH SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE AREA.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 AM CST SAT JAN 7 2012/
SHORT TERM...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH.
BIG CONCERN IS WITH TEMPERATURES TODAY. COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES
THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH 925MB TEMPERATURES FALLING FROM CURRENT
LEVELS AROUND 0C TO +1 DOWN TO -4C TO -5C BY 18Z. ALSO WATCHING
STRATUS TRYING TO WORK SOUTHEAST FROM NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. MODEL
SOUNDINGS AND LOW-LEVEL RH FIELDS INDICATE THIS DECK WILL DROP
ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER LEADING EDGE HAS
BEEN ERODING AS IT RUNS INTO SUBSIDENCE BEHIND EXITING WAVE...AND
MOVES AWAY FROM DEEPER SNOW FIELD TO THE NORTH. WILL ADJUST SKY IF
NEEDED AT ISSUANCE...BUT EVEN WITH MORE SUNSHINE...925MB
TEMPERATURES DICTATE NO MORE THAN MID TO UPPER 30S WITH THE COOLER
TEMPERATURES NORTH OVER THE SNOW PACK AND THE BETTER CHANCE AT SOME
CLOUD COVER.
QUIET AND COOL TONIGHT WITH A THIN SCATTERED TO BROKEN CIRRUS DECK
AT BEST AND LIGHT WINDS ALLOWING LOWS IN THE TEENS NORTH TO LOWER
20S SOUTH.
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST ON SUNDAY.
850MB TEMPS WILL BE WARMING SLIGHTLY...SO A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER
EXPECTED ON SUN THAN SAT WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S TO AROUND
40. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME THIN CIRRUS...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN
THE WAY OF CLOUDS.
SUN NIGHT MIN TEMPS EXPECTED IN THE UPPER 20S WITH CONTINUED SUBTLE
850MB WARMING. CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED BEHIND THE PASSING 500MB
TROUGH.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH.
HIGH PRESSURE AND WARMER THICKNESSES WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN WI.
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
PLAINS/MIDWEST AND A LOW TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BRING
A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS ACROSS WI ON MON
AFTERNOON WITH MIXING UP TO 950/925MB EXPECTED.
INCREASED MAX TEMPS ON MON AND TUE TO GENERALLY THE BIAS-CORRECTED
MOS GUIDANCE VALUES...WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S. ECMWF AND GFS ARE
FORECASTING THICKNESSES AROUND 548DM AND 850MB TEMPS AROUND +5C BY
00Z WED. A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND
500MB RIDGING OVERHEAD.
LONG TERM...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
A CUTOFF 500MB LOW OVER TEXAS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
ON WEDNESDAY AND BRING A LARGE AMOUNT OF PRECIP TO THE NORTHEAST US
THROUGH THURSDAY...WHILE ANOTHER CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPS NEAR CALIFORNIA
AND ARIZONA. MEANWHILE...A STRONG 500MB TROUGH/VORT MAX WILL DROP
DOWN ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WED
AFTERNOON THROUGH THU.
WITH A DEEP UPPER LOW AND A SURFACE LOW OCCLUDING OVER NORTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN OR LAKE SUPERIOR...A RATHER STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WI
BETWEEN WED AFTERNOON OR EVENING...DEPENDING ON THE MODEL OF CHOICE.
00Z ECMWF SFC PATTERN SEEMS TO HAVE GONE BACK TO LAST NIGHT/S 00Z
RUN...LAGGING THE SFC LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES LONGER AND CAUSING
MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP ACROSS WI THROUGH THU. THE GFS AND PREVIOUS
12Z ECMWF RUNS MOVE THE SFC LOW ALONG TO THE EAST COAST A LITTLE
QUICKER. ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIP MENTIONED IN FCST WED NIGHT
THU AT THIS TIME.
PRECIPITATION MOST LIKELY IN THE FORM OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS
SFC LOW AND COLD FRONT...ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER. AT THIS
TIME...PRECIP AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT WITH THE FAST-MOVING FRONT UNLESS
THE SLOWER ECMWF PANS OUT. GFS KEEPS SOUTHERN WI DRY WITH THIS
SYSTEM.
COLD AIR WILL SETTLE IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...WITH HIGH TEMPS MORE
AROUND NORMAL IN THE LOWER 20S THU AND FRI. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT
THESE TEMPS ARE A LITTLE TOO HIGH GIVEN THE EXPECTED 850MB TEMPS TO
BE AROUND -16C. HOWEVER...LATEST ECMWF AND GFS SHOW THIS TO BE
SHORT-LIVED...WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND WARMING TEMPS AGAIN FOR NEXT
WEEKEND.
AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...
ADDED LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR TO KMSN AND KMKE TAFS AS SURFACE WINDS
HAVE DECOUPLED WITH CLEARING SKIES AND 35-39KT NW WINDS AROUND
1300-1700 FT NOTED ON RUC SOUNDINGS SUPPORTED BY TAMDAR SOUNDING
FROM KRFD.
NEXT CONCERN IS WITH VFR CLOUD DECK DROPPING SE THROUGH THE STATE.
LEADING EDGE HAS BEEN ERODING AS IT RUNS INTO SUBSIDENCE BEHIND
DEPARTING WAVE AND MOVES AWAY FROM DEEPER SNOW COVER. WILL KEEP
SCATTERED STRATUS AT TAF SITES FOR NOW...AS BETTER CHANCE FOR A MORE
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER APPEARS TO BE NORTH...BUT WILL MONITOR
SATELLITE AND RAPID-UPDATE MODELS CLOSELY FOR DIFFERING TREND PRIOR
TO ISSUANCE.
MARINE...
WINDS HAVE REMAINED UNDER SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA OVER THE WARMER
WATERS OF THE LAKE...WITH SURFACE GRADIENT SLOWLY RELAXING THROUGH
THE DAY WITH THE APPROACH OF A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THAT CROSSES THE
REGION TONIGHT.
MONDAY/MONDAY EVENING WILL BE THE NEXT PERIOD OF CONCERN AS BRISK
SOUTHWEST WINDS AND SUBSEQUENT WAVES MAY REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS ...AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL NORTH OF THE REGION.
BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS AND ASSOCIATED WAVES MAY REACH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS AT TIMES WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...BEHIND A
STRONG COLD FRONT.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WOOD
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...REM
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MRC