Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 01/06/12
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
1253 PM EST WED JAN 4 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR ARCTIC AIR
MASS WILL START TO MOVE EAST TODAY. THE AIR MASS WILL BEGIN TO
MODERATE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL
PASS THROUGH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH JUST A CHANCE OF MAINLY
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1245 PM EST...CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE VIA THE LATEST
VISIBLE/IR SATELLITE LOOP OVER THE FCST AREA. A H500 VORT MAX IS
APPROACHING FROM NORTH GEORGIAN BAY. WE HAVE SEEN SOME LIGHT PCPN
RETURNS ON THE REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR WEST OF LAKE ONTARIO...AND
NEAR THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. WE KEEP A SLIGHT CHC-LOW CHC OF SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE WRN DACKS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE DRY LOW LEVELS
ARE PRECLUDING MUCH IN THE FLURRY ACTIVITY OVER MOST THE REGION.
TEMPS ARE RUNNING BEHIND AROUND 1 TO 3 DEGREES IN THE HOURLY
TRENDS. WE LOWERED MAX TEMPS ABOUT A CATEGORY EVERYWHERE TO
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO L20S IN THE VALLEYS...AND
TEENS OVER THE MTNS. TEMPS WILL BE STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE
OVERNIGHT...AS THE LOW AND MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES.
PREVIOUS NEAR TERM...
AS OF 930 AM...EXPIRED THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY
AS TEMPS ARE WARMING NOW...BUT IT WILL STILL BE COLD TODAY.
OTHERWISE...JUST MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY GRIDS BASED
ON CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS. CLOUDS INCREASING RAPIDLY FROM CENTRAL
NEW YORK ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK TROF APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION...
AS OF 6 AM...HIGH AND MID CLOUDS WERE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AS
THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINS ITS APPROACH. MINOR TWEAKS TO
CURRENT HOURLY GRIDS AS REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.
SURFACE WARM FRONT WAS APPROACHING FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
REGION THIS MORNING. UPSTREAM REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC REVEALS
MINIMAL ACTIVITY...HOWEVER...MAIN UPPER SUPPORT PER THE H2O VAPOR
LOOP HAS YET TO FULLY INTERACT WITH THIS SURFACE FEATURE. NCEP
MODEL SUITE AND HOURLY RUC13 SUPPORT AN OVERALL INCREASE IN LIFT
/AGAIN LIKELY DUE TO THE WARM ADVECTIVE PROCESSES/ AND MOISTENING
OF THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN. QG VERTICAL MOTIONS DO SUGGEST THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLURRIES AS THIS WILL BE PLACED IN THE
GRIDS/FORECAST. ONCE THE SURFACE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS
NORTHWARD...MARGINAL LAKE INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE WIND
TRAJECTORIES POINT TOWARD LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS
DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO INTO PORTIONS OF THE DACKS. LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE FIELDS INCREASE AS HIRES QPF SUGGEST ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE MINOR.
AFTER A VERY CHILLY START TO THE DAY...WE SHOULD REBOUND BACK INTO
THE 20S FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE CWFA THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LAKE RESPONSE WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT...YET INVERSION LEVELS ARE
LESS THAN IDEAL FOR TALL CONVECTIVE GROWTH AND TOO MUCH SHEAR SEEN
IN THE PROFILES. NEVERTHELESS...AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM ONTARIO PROVINCE...THIS WILL ENHANCE THE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE OVER LAKE ONTARIO FOR A BAND/S/ OF SNOW TO CONCENTRATE
INTO THE DACKS. THIS BAND/S/ WILL MIGRATE SOUTH OVERNIGHT AS THAT
COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTHWARD TOWARD SUNRISE THURSDAY. AS AMPLE LOW
LEVEL STRATUS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...TEMPERATURES
WILL NOT DROP TOO MUCH TO KEEP DIURNAL RANGES RATHER SMALL.
ON THURSDAY...COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTHEAST OF THE CWFA WITH RIDGING
REESTABLISHING ITSELF OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL
LIMIT LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY AS WE WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS FOR
PORTIONS OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY...SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND EASTERN
CATSKILLS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND FURTHER WITH MAINLY LOW-MID
30S FOR THE VALLEY LOCATIONS AND MID-UPR 20S FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.
UPSTREAM...PACIFIC SYSTEM COMES ASHORE AND MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL AID IN AN INCREASE OF
MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND TIGHTENING OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW EVOLVING ALONG AND NORTH OF I90
WHICH CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY. AS THERMAL PROFILES CONTINUE TO
WARM...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO MIX WITH RAIN DURING FRIDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THERE IS ACTUALLY A FAIR AMOUNT OF AGREEMENT DURING AT LEAST THE
FIRST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AMONGST THE GLOBAL FORECAST MODEL
(GFS)/CANADIAN METEOROLOGICAL CENTER MODEL (CMC) AND THE EUROPEAN
CENTER MID RANGE WEATHER FORECAST (ECMWF). THAT SAID...DUE TO LACK
OF ANY STRONG SHORT WAVES UPSTREAM IN THE PACIFIC...AND THE FACT
THAT THE SOUTHERN JETSTREAM AND NORTHERN JETSTREAM REMAIN
BIFURCATED AS THEY HAVE BEEN MOST OF THIS YOUNG WINTER
SEASON...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ONLY AT A MEDIUM LEVEL.
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH A CLIPPER TYPE STORM PROJECTED TO MOVE
NORTH OF THE REGION...POSSIBLY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST REGION FRIDAY NIGHT.
SATURDAY THIS SYSTEM MOVES OFF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND IN ITS
WAKE...RELATIVELY MILD AIR BY JANUARY STANDARDS...FEATURING H850 AT
OR A LITTLE ABOVE 0C...WILL BE OVER THE REGION. THERE COULD BE A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS OR RAIN OR SNOW WELL WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION AHEAD
OF AN INCOMING COLD FRONT. ANY ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY
LOOKS LIGHT.
A TRAILING COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCES OF ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS OF RAIN OR SNOW
ACROSS THE REGION...EXCEPT LOW CHANCES OF SNOW ACROSS THE ELEVATED
TERRAIN TO OUR WEST.
BY SUNDAY...IT LOOKS AS THIS BOUNDARY WILL LAY DOWN SOMEWHERE TO OUR
SOUTH AND STALL. WEAK CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE ATTEMPTS TO BUILD
IN.
EARLIER RUNS OF THE ECMWF INDICATE A SOMEWHAT POTENTIALLY
POTENT WAVE COULD RIDE UP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND BRING A ROUND
OF SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...THE 00Z ECMWF HAS FALLEN
IN LINE WITH THE CMC AND GFS WHICH HAVE BOTH INDICATED ANY WAVE TO
BE WEAKER AND FURTHER SOUTH. THE TIMING OF THIS WAVE IS SLOWER WITH
THE GFS COMPARED TO THE OTHER MODELS MOVING OFF TO OUR SOUTH MONDAY
INSTEAD OF SUNDAY.
NEVERTHELESS...THE EUROPEAN ENSEMBLES INDICATE A VARIETY OF
SOLUTIONS...NOT SURPRISING THIS FAR OUT AS THERE IS STILL A
POTENTIAL FOR ENERGY FROM BOTH THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN JETSTREAMS
TO PHASE. THIS SCENARIO WILL BE WATCHED BUT FOR NOW ONLY KEEP SLIGHT
TO LOW CHANCES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS IF NOTHING ELSE...AN NORTHEAST
FLOW MIGHT KEEP CLOUDS AND LIGHT SPOTTY PRECIPITATION AROUND.
BY TUESDAY...ALL THE MODELS INDICATE WHATEVER SYSTEM IS TO OUR EAST
AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO RUN A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE MILDEST DAY WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO
THE 40S MOST PLACES...WITH 30S CONFINED TO THE HIGHEST TERRAIN
INCLUDING ALL OF THE ADIRONDACK PARK. THE REMAINDER OF THE DAYS WILL
SEE HIGHS RANGING FROM THE 30S TO NEAR 40 VALLEYS AREAS...MID 20S TO
LOWER 30S HIGHER TERRAIN.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIODS...TEENS ADIRONDACKS.
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...BUT THAT
COULD EASILY CHANGE IF ENERGY FROM THE JETSTREAMS HAS THE
OPPORTUNITY TO PHASE AT ANY GIVEN TIME DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER AS THE TROF MOVES THROUGH
TONIGHT...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN VFR RANGE. SOME MVFR CIGS
ARE POSSIBLE AT KGFL BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO MENTION IN TAFS.
BKN CLOUDS IN VFR RANGE ARE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY MORNING.
WINDS WILL BE SOUTH AROUND 5 KT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SPEEDS
DECREASING TO AROUND 2-5 KT OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST THURSDAY MORNING AT 5-8 KT.
OUTLOOK...
THU NGT-FRI...MAINLY VFR. SLIGHT CHC -SHSN.
SAT...VFR. NO SIG WX.
SUN...MAINLY VFR. SLIGHT CHC -SHSN.
MON...VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK.
AN ARCTIC AIR MASS RESIDES OVER THE REGION AT THE MOMENT. COLD
TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH BRISK WINDS WILL AID IN THE FORMATION OF
ICE ON MANY BODIES OF WATER THIS WEEK.
ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE LIGHT AND IN
THE FORM OF MAINLY SNOW.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM/JPV
NEAR TERM...BGM/JPV/WASULA
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...JPV
HYDROLOGY...BGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
1242 PM EST WED JAN 4 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR ARCTIC AIR
MASS WILL START TO MOVE EAST TODAY. THE AIR MASS WILL BEGIN TO
MODERATE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL
PASS THROUGH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH JUST A CHANCE OF MAINLY
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 930 AM...EXPIRED THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY AS TEMPS ARE
WARMING NOW...BUT IT WILL STILL BE COLD TODAY. OTHERWISE...JUST
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT OBS
AND TRENDS. CLOUDS INCREASING RAPIDLY FROM CENTRAL NEW YORK
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK TROF APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION...
AS OF 6 AM...HIGH AND MID CLOUDS WERE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AS
THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINS ITS APPROACH. MINOR TWEAKS TO
CURRENT HOURLY GRIDS AS REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.
SURFACE WARM FRONT WAS APPROACHING FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
REGION THIS MORNING. UPSTREAM REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC REVEALS
MINIMAL ACTIVITY...HOWEVER...MAIN UPPER SUPPORT PER THE H2O VAPOR
LOOP HAS YET TO FULLY INTERACT WITH THIS SURFACE FEATURE. NCEP
MODEL SUITE AND HOURLY RUC13 SUPPORT AN OVERALL INCREASE IN LIFT
/AGAIN LIKELY DUE TO THE WARM ADVECTIVE PROCESSES/ AND MOISTENING
OF THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN. QG VERTICAL MOTIONS DO SUGGEST THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLURRIES AS THIS WILL BE PLACED IN THE
GRIDS/FORECAST. ONCE THE SURFACE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS
NORTHWARD...MARGINAL LAKE INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE WIND
TRAJECTORIES POINT TOWARD LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS
DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO INTO PORTIONS OF THE DACKS. LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE FIELDS INCREASE AS HIRES QPF SUGGEST ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE MINOR.
AFTER A VERY CHILLY START TO THE DAY...WE SHOULD REBOUND BACK INTO
THE 20S FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE CWFA THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LAKE RESPONSE WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT...YET INVERSION LEVELS ARE
LESS THAN IDEAL FOR TALL CONVECTIVE GROWTH AND TOO MUCH SHEAR SEEN
IN THE PROFILES. NEVERTHELESS...AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM ONTARIO PROVINCE...THIS WILL ENHANCE THE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE OVER LAKE ONTARIO FOR A BAND/S/ OF SNOW TO CONCENTRATE
INTO THE DACKS. THIS BAND/S/ WILL MIGRATE SOUTH OVERNIGHT AS THAT
COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTHWARD TOWARD SUNRISE THURSDAY. AS AMPLE LOW
LEVEL STRATUS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...TEMPERATURES
WILL NOT DROP TOO MUCH TO KEEP DIURNAL RANGES RATHER SMALL.
ON THURSDAY...COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTHEAST OF THE CWFA WITH RIDGING
REESTABLISHING ITSELF OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL
LIMIT LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY AS WE WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS FOR
PORTIONS OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY...SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND EASTERN
CATSKILLS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND FURTHER WITH MAINLY LOW-MID
30S FOR THE VALLEY LOCATIONS AND MID-UPR 20S FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.
UPSTREAM...PACIFIC SYSTEM COMES ASHORE AND MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL AID IN AN INCREASE OF
MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND TIGHTENING OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW EVOLVING ALONG AND NORTH OF I90
WHICH CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY. AS THERMAL PROFILES CONTINUE TO
WARM...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO MIX WITH RAIN DURING FRIDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THERE IS ACTUALLY A FAIR AMOUNT OF AGREEMENT DURING AT LEAST THE
FIRST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AMONGST THE GLOBAL FORECAST MODEL
(GFS)/CANADIAN METEOROLOGICAL CENTER MODEL (CMC) AND THE EUROPEAN
CENTER MID RANGE WEATHER FORECAST (ECMWF). THAT SAID...DUE TO LACK
OF ANY STRONG SHORT WAVES UPSTREAM IN THE PACIFIC...AND THE FACT
THAT THE SOUTHERN JETSTREAM AND NORTHERN JETSTREAM REMAIN
BIFURCATED AS THEY HAVE BEEN MOST OF THIS YOUNG WINTER
SEASON...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ONLY AT A MEDIUM LEVEL.
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH A CLIPPER TYPE STORM PROJECTED TO MOVE
NORTH OF THE REGION...POSSIBLY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST REGION FRIDAY NIGHT.
SATURDAY THIS SYSTEM MOVES OFF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND IN ITS
WAKE...RELATIVELY MILD AIR BY JANUARY STANDARDS...FEATURING H850 AT
OR A LITTLE ABOVE 0C...WILL BE OVER THE REGION. THERE COULD BE A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS OR RAIN OR SNOW WELL WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION AHEAD
OF AN INCOMING COLD FRONT. ANY ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY
LOOKS LIGHT.
A TRAILING COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCES OF ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS OF RAIN OR SNOW
ACROSS THE REGION...EXCEPT LOW CHANCES OF SNOW ACROSS THE ELEVATED
TERRAIN TO OUR WEST.
BY SUNDAY...IT LOOKS AS THIS BOUNDARY WILL LAY DOWN SOMEWHERE TO OUR
SOUTH AND STALL. WEAK CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE ATTEMPTS TO BUILD
IN.
EARLIER RUNS OF THE ECMWF INDICATE A SOMEWHAT POTENTIALLY
POTENT WAVE COULD RIDE UP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND BRING A ROUND
OF SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...THE 00Z ECMWF HAS FALLEN
IN LINE WITH THE CMC AND GFS WHICH HAVE BOTH INDICATED ANY WAVE TO
BE WEAKER AND FURTHER SOUTH. THE TIMING OF THIS WAVE IS SLOWER WITH
THE GFS COMPARED TO THE OTHER MODELS MOVING OFF TO OUR SOUTH MONDAY
INSTEAD OF SUNDAY.
NEVERTHELESS...THE EUROPEAN ENSEMBLES INDICATE A VARIETY OF
SOLUTIONS...NOT SURPRISING THIS FAR OUT AS THERE IS STILL A
POTENTIAL FOR ENERGY FROM BOTH THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN JETSTREAMS
TO PHASE. THIS SCENARIO WILL BE WATCHED BUT FOR NOW ONLY KEEP SLIGHT
TO LOW CHANCES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS IF NOTHING ELSE...AN NORTHEAST
FLOW MIGHT KEEP CLOUDS AND LIGHT SPOTTY PRECIPITATION AROUND.
BY TUESDAY...ALL THE MODELS INDICATE WHATEVER SYSTEM IS TO OUR EAST
AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO RUN A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE MILDEST DAY WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO
THE 40S MOST PLACES...WITH 30S CONFINED TO THE HIGHEST TERRAIN
INCLUDING ALL OF THE ADIRONDACK PARK. THE REMAINDER OF THE DAYS WILL
SEE HIGHS RANGING FROM THE 30S TO NEAR 40 VALLEYS AREAS...MID 20S TO
LOWER 30S HIGHER TERRAIN.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIODS...TEENS ADIRONDACKS.
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...BUT THAT
COULD EASILY CHANGE IF ENERGY FROM THE JETSTREAMS HAS THE
OPPORTUNITY TO PHASE AT ANY GIVEN TIME DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER AS THE TROF MOVES THROUGH
TONIGHT...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN VFR RANGE. SOME MVFR CIGS
ARE POSSIBLE AT KGFL BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO MENTION IN TAFS.
BKN CLOUDS IN VFR RANGE ARE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY MORNING.
WINDS WILL BE SOUTH AROUND 5 KT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SPEEDS
DECREASING TO AROUND 2-5 KT OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST THURSDAY MORNING AT 5-8 KT.
OUTLOOK...
THU NGT-FRI...MAINLY VFR. SLIGHT CHC -SHSN.
SAT...VFR. NO SIG WX.
SUN...MAINLY VFR. SLIGHT CHC -SHSN.
MON...VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK.
AN ARCTIC AIR MASS RESIDES OVER THE REGION AT THE MOMENT. COLD
TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH BRISK WINDS WILL AID IN THE FORMATION OF
ICE ON MANY BODIES OF WATER THIS WEEK.
ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE LIGHT AND IN
THE FORM OF MAINLY SNOW.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM/JPV
NEAR TERM...BGM/JPV
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...JPV
HYDROLOGY...BGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
931 AM EST WED JAN 4 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL
MOVE EAST TODAY...THE AIR MASS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY MODERATE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL PASS
THROUGH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH JUST A CHANCE OF MAINLY
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 930 AM...EXPIRED THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY AS TEMPS ARE
WARMING NOW...BUT IT WILL STILL BE COLD TODAY. OTHERWISE...JUST
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT OBS
AND TRENDS. CLOUDS INCREASING RAPIDLY FROM CENTRAL NEW YORK
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK TROF APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION...
AS OF 6 AM...HIGH AND MID CLOUDS WERE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AS
THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINS ITS APPROACH. MINOR TWEAKS TO
CURRENT HOURLY GRIDS AS REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.
SURFACE WARM FRONT WAS APPROACHING FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
REGION THIS MORNING. UPSTREAM REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC REVEALS
MINIMAL ACTIVITY...HOWEVER...MAIN UPPER SUPPORT PER THE H2O VAPOR
LOOP HAS YET TO FULLY INTERACT WITH THIS SURFACE FEATURE. NCEP
MODEL SUITE AND HOURLY RUC13 SUPPORT AN OVERALL INCREASE IN LIFT
/AGAIN LIKELY DUE TO THE WARM ADVECTIVE PROCESSES/ AND MOISTENING
OF THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN. QG VERTICAL MOTIONS DO SUGGEST THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLURRIES AS THIS WILL BE PLACED IN THE
GRIDS/FORECAST. ONCE THE SURFACE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS
NORTHWARD...MARGINAL LAKE INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE WIND
TRAJECTORIES POINT TOWARD LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS
DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO INTO PORTIONS OF THE DACKS. LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE FIELDS INCREASE AS HIRES QPF SUGGEST ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE MINOR.
AFTER A VERY CHILLY START TO THE DAY...WE SHOULD REBOUND BACK INTO
THE 20S FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE CWFA THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LAKE RESPONSE WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT...YET INVERSION LEVELS ARE
LESS THAN IDEAL FOR TALL CONVECTIVE GROWTH AND TOO MUCH SHEAR SEEN
IN THE PROFILES. NEVERTHELESS...AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM ONTARIO PROVINCE...THIS WILL ENHANCE THE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE OVER LAKE ONTARIO FOR A BAND/S/ OF SNOW TO CONCENTRATE
INTO THE DACKS. THIS BAND/S/ WILL MIGRATE SOUTH OVERNIGHT AS THAT
COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTHWARD TOWARD SUNRISE THURSDAY. AS AMPLE LOW
LEVEL STRATUS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...TEMPERATURES
WILL NOT DROP TOO MUCH TO KEEP DIURNAL RANGES RATHER SMALL.
ON THURSDAY...COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTHEAST OF THE CWFA WITH RIDGING
REESTABLISHING ITSELF OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL
LIMIT LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY AS WE WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS FOR
PORTIONS OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY...SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND EASTERN
CATSKILLS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND FURTHER WITH MAINLY LOW-MID
30S FOR THE VALLEY LOCATIONS AND MID-UPR 20S FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.
UPSTREAM...PACIFIC SYSTEM COMES ASHORE AND MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL AID IN AN INCREASE OF
MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND TIGHTENING OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW EVOLVING ALONG AND NORTH OF I90
WHICH CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY. AS THERMAL PROFILES CONTINUE TO
WARM...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO MIX WITH RAIN DURING FRIDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THERE IS ACTUALLY A FAIR AMOUNT OF AGREEMENT DURING AT LEAST THE
FIRST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AMONGST THE GLOBAL FORECAST MODEL
(GFS)/CANADIAN METEOROLOGICAL CENTER MODEL (CMC) AND THE EUROPEAN
CENTER MID RANGE WEATHER FORECAST (ECMWF). THAT SAID...DUE TO LACK
OF ANY STRONG SHORT WAVES UPSTREAM IN THE PACIFIC...AND THE FACT
THAT THE SOUTHERN JETSTREAM AND NORTHERN JETSTREAM REMAIN
BIFURCATED AS THEY HAVE BEEN MOST OF THIS YOUNG WINTER
SEASON...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ONLY AT A MEDIUM LEVEL.
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH A CLIPPER TYPE STORM PROJECTED TO MOVE
NORTH OF THE REGION...POSSIBLY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST REGION FRIDAY NIGHT.
SATURDAY THIS SYSTEM MOVES OFF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND IN ITS
WAKE...RELATIVELY MILD AIR BY JANUARY STANDARDS...FEATURING H850 AT
OR A LITTLE ABOVE 0C...WILL BE OVER THE REGION. THERE COULD BE A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS OR RAIN OR SNOW WELL WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION AHEAD
OF AN INCOMING COLD FRONT. ANY ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY
LOOKS LIGHT.
A TRAILING COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCES OF ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS OF RAIN OR SNOW
ACROSS THE REGION...EXCEPT LOW CHANCES OF SNOW ACROSS THE ELEVATED
TERRAIN TO OUR WEST.
BY SUNDAY...IT LOOKS AS THIS BOUNDARY WILL LAY DOWN SOMEWHERE TO OUR
SOUTH AND STALL. WEAK CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE ATTEMPTS TO BUILD
IN.
EARLIER RUNS OF THE ECMWF INDICATE A SOMEWHAT POTENTIALLY
POTENT WAVE COULD RIDE UP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND BRING A ROUND
OF SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...THE 00Z ECMWF HAS FALLEN
IN LINE WITH THE CMC AND GFS WHICH HAVE BOTH INDICATED ANY WAVE TO
BE WEAKER AND FURTHER SOUTH. THE TIMING OF THIS WAVE IS SLOWER WITH
THE GFS COMPARED TO THE OTHER MODELS MOVING OFF TO OUR SOUTH MONDAY
INSTEAD OF SUNDAY.
NEVERTHELESS...THE EUROPEAN ENSEMBLES INDICATE A VARIETY OF
SOLUTIONS...NOT SURPRISING THIS FAR OUT AS THERE IS STILL A
POTENTIAL FOR ENERGY FROM BOTH THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN JETSTREAMS
TO PHASE. THIS SCENARIO WILL BE WATCHED BUT FOR NOW ONLY KEEP SLIGHT
TO LOW CHANCES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS IF NOTHING ELSE...AN NORTHEAST
FLOW MIGHT KEEP CLOUDS AND LIGHT SPOTTY PRECIPITATION AROUND.
BY TUESDAY...ALL THE MODELS INDICATE WHATEVER SYSTEM IS TO OUR EAST
AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO RUN A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE MILDEST DAY WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO
THE 40S MOST PLACES...WITH 30S CONFINED TO THE HIGHEST TERRAIN
INCLUDING ALL OF THE ADIRONDACK PARK. THE REMAINDER OF THE DAYS WILL
SEE HIGHS RANGING FROM THE 30S TO NEAR 40 VALLEYS AREAS...MID 20S TO
LOWER 30S HIGHER TERRAIN.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIODS...TEENS ADIRONDACKS.
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...BUT THAT
COULD EASILY CHANGE IF ENERGY FROM THE JETSTREAMS HAS THE
OPPORTUNITY TO PHASE AT ANY GIVEN TIME DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH TODAY.
THE DAY SHOULD START CLEAR WITH WITH LITTLE OR NO WIND AT ALL
TERMINALS. WARM AIR ADVECTION CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE TERMINALS
BY MIDDAY WITH BASES AROUND 12000 FEET. THE LIGHT WIND WILL TURN
SOUTHERLY 5-10KTS...WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AT KALB.
THE CLOUDS LOOK TO LOWER TO ABOUT A 6000-FOOT BASE DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THERE MIGHT BE A FLURRIES AT THAT TIME...BUT WITH
VIRTUALLY NO IMPACT EXPECTED TO OPERATIONS...DID NOT EVEN INCLUDE A
VCSH AT THIS TIME.
THE CLOUDS LOOK TO GRADUALLY THIN LATER TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
TON-FRI...MAINLY VFR. CIG. SCHC SW-.
SAT...VFR. NO CIG WX.
SUN...MAINLY VFR. SCHC SW-.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK.
AN ARCTIC AIR MASS RESIDES OVER THE REGION AT THE MOMENT. COLD
TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH BRISK WINDS WILL AID IN THE FORMATION OF
ICE ON MANY BODIES OF WATER THIS WEEK.
ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE LIGHT AND IN
THE FORM OF MAINLY SNOW.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM/JPV
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...BGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
615 AM EST WED JAN 4 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL
MOVE EAST TODAY...THE AIR MASS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY MODERATE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL PASS
THROUGH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH JUST A CHANCE OF MAINLY
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 6 AM...HIGH AND MID CLOUDS WERE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AS
THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINS ITS APPROACH. MINOR TWEAKS TO
CURRENT HOURLY GRIDS AS REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.
SURFACE WARM FRONT WAS APPROACHING FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
REGION THIS MORNING. UPSTREAM REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC REVEALS
MINIMAL ACTIVITY...HOWEVER...MAIN UPPER SUPPORT PER THE H2O VAPOR
LOOP HAS YET TO FULLY INTERACT WITH THIS SURFACE FEATURE. NCEP
MODEL SUITE AND HOURLY RUC13 SUPPORT AN OVERALL INCREASE IN LIFT
/AGAIN LIKELY DUE TO THE WARM ADVECTIVE PROCESSES/ AND MOISTENING
OF THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN. QG VERTICAL MOTIONS DO SUGGEST THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLURRIES AS THIS WILL BE PLACED IN THE
GRIDS/FORECAST. ONCE THE SURFACE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS
NORTHWARD...MARGINAL LAKE INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE WIND
TRAJECTORIES POINT TOWARD LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS
DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO INTO PORTIONS OF THE DACKS. LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE FIELDS INCREASE AS HIRES QPF SUGGEST ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE MINOR.
AFTER A VERY CHILLY START TO THE DAY...WE SHOULD REBOUND BACK INTO
THE 20S FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE CWFA THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LAKE RESPONSE WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT...YET INVERSION LEVELS ARE
LESS THAN IDEAL FOR TALL CONVECTIVE GROWTH AND TOO MUCH SHEAR SEEN
IN THE PROFILES. NEVERTHELESS...AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM ONTARIO PROVINCE...THIS WILL ENHANCE THE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE OVER LAKE ONTARIO FOR A BAND/S/ OF SNOW TO CONCENTRATE
INTO THE DACKS. THIS BAND/S/ WILL MIGRATE SOUTH OVERNIGHT AS THAT
COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTHWARD TOWARD SUNRISE THURSDAY. AS AMPLE LOW
LEVEL STRATUS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...TEMPERATURES
WILL NOT DROP TOO MUCH TO KEEP DIURNAL RANGES RATHER SMALL.
ON THURSDAY...COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTHEAST OF THE CWFA WITH RIDGING
REESTABLISHING ITSELF OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL
LIMIT LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY AS WE WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS FOR
PORTIONS OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY...SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND EASTERN
CATSKILLS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND FURTHER WITH MAINLY LOW-MID
30S FOR THE VALLEY LOCATIONS AND MID-UPR 20S FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.
UPSTREAM...PACIFIC SYSTEM COMES ASHORE AND MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL AID IN AN INCREASE OF
MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND TIGHTENING OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW EVOLVING ALONG AND NORTH OF I90
WHICH CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY. AS THERMAL PROFILES CONTINUE TO
WARM...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO MIX WITH RAIN DURING FRIDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THERE IS ACTUALLY A FAIR AMOUNT OF AGREEMENT DURING AT LEAST THE
FIRST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AMONGST THE GLOBAL FORECAST MODEL
(GFS)/CANADIAN METEOROLOGICAL CENTER MODEL (CMC) AND THE EUROPEAN
CENTER MID RANGE WEATHER FORECAST (ECMWF). THAT SAID...DUE TO LACK
OF ANY STRONG SHORT WAVES UPSTREAM IN THE PACIFIC...AND THE FACT
THAT THE SOUTHERN JETSTREAM AND NORTHERN JETSTREAM REMAIN
BIFURCATED AS THEY HAVE BEEN MOST OF THIS YOUNG WINTER
SEASON...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ONLY AT A MEDIUM LEVEL.
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH A CLIPPER TYPE STORM PROJECTED TO MOVE
NORTH OF THE REGION...POSSIBLY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST REGION FRIDAY NIGHT.
SATURDAY THIS SYSTEM MOVES OFF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND IN ITS
WAKE...RELATIVELY MILD AIR BY JANUARY STANDARDS...FEATURING H850 AT
OR A LITTLE ABOVE 0C...WILL BE OVER THE REGION. THERE COULD BE A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS OR RAIN OR SNOW WELL WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION AHEAD
OF AN INCOMING COLD FRONT. ANY ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY
LOOKS LIGHT.
A TRAILING COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCES OF ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS OF RAIN OR SNOW
ACROSS THE REGION...EXCEPT LOW CHANCES OF SNOW ACROSS THE ELEVATED
TERRAIN TO OUR WEST.
BY SUNDAY...IT LOOKS AS THIS BOUNDARY WILL LAY DOWN SOMEWHERE TO OUR
SOUTH AND STALL. WEAK CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE ATTEMPTS TO BUILD
IN.
EARLIER RUNS OF THE ECMWF INDICATE A SOMEWHAT POTENTIALLY
POTENT WAVE COULD RIDE UP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND BRING A ROUND
OF SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...THE 00Z ECMWF HAS FALLEN
IN LINE WITH THE CMC AND GFS WHICH HAVE BOTH INDICATED ANY WAVE TO
BE WEAKER AND FURTHER SOUTH. THE TIMING OF THIS WAVE IS SLOWER WITH
THE GFS COMPARED TO THE OTHER MODELS MOVING OFF TO OUR SOUTH MONDAY
INSTEAD OF SUNDAY.
NEVERTHELESS...THE EUROPEAN ENSEMBLES INDICATE A VARIETY OF
SOLUTIONS...NOT SURPRISING THIS FAR OUT AS THERE IS STILL A
POTENTIAL FOR ENERGY FROM BOTH THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN JETSTREAMS
TO PHASE. THIS SCENARIO WILL BE WATCHED BUT FOR NOW ONLY KEEP SLIGHT
TO LOW CHANCES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS IF NOTHING ELSE...AN NORTHEAST
FLOW MIGHT KEEP CLOUDS AND LIGHT SPOTTY PRECIPITATION AROUND.
BY TUESDAY...ALL THE MODELS INDICATE WHATEVER SYSTEM IS TO OUR EAST
AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO RUN A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE MILDEST DAY WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO
THE 40S MOST PLACES...WITH 30S CONFINED TO THE HIGHEST TERRAIN
INCLUDING ALL OF THE ADIRONDACK PARK. THE REMAINDER OF THE DAYS WILL
SEE HIGHS RANGING FROM THE 30S TO NEAR 40 VALLEYS AREAS...MID 20S TO
LOWER 30S HIGHER TERRAIN.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIODS...TEENS ADIRONDACKS.
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...BUT THAT
COULD EASILY CHANGE IF ENERGY FROM THE JETSTREAMS HAS THE
OPPORTUNITY TO PHASE AT ANY GIVEN TIME DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH TODAY.
THE DAY SHOULD START CLEAR WITH WITH LITTLE OR NO WIND AT ALL
TERMINALS. WARM AIR ADVECTION CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE TERMINALS
BY MIDDAY WITH BASES AROUND 12000 FEET. THE LIGHT WIND WILL TURN
SOUTHERLY 5-10KTS...WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AT KALB.
THE CLOUDS LOOK TO LOWER TO ABOUT A 6000-FOOT BASE DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THERE MIGHT BE A FLURRIES AT THAT TIME...BUT WITH
VIRTUALLY NO IMPACT EXPECTED TO OPERATIONS...DID NOT EVEN INCLUDE A
VCSH AT THIS TIME.
THE CLOUDS LOOK TO GRADUALLY THIN LATER TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
TON-FRI...MAINLY VFR. CIG. SCHC SW-.
SAT...VFR. NO CIG WX.
SUN...MAINLY VFR. SCHC SW-.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK.
AN ARCTIC AIR MASS RESIDES OVER THE REGION AT THE MOMENT. COLD
TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH BRISK WINDS WILL AID IN THE FORMATION OF
ICE ON MANY BODIES OF WATER THIS WEEK.
ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE LIGHT AND IN
THE FORM OF MAINLY SNOW.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR CTZ001.
NY...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ032-033-
042-058-063-082.
MA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...BGM
FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
346 AM EST WED JAN 4 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL
MOVE EAST TODAY...THE AIR MASS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY MODERATE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL PASS
THROUGH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH JUST A CHANCE OF MAINLY
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SURFACE WARM FRONT WAS APPROACHING FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
REGION THIS MORNING. UPSTREAM REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC REVEALS
MINIMAL ACTIVITY...HOWEVER...MAIN UPPER SUPPORT PER THE H2O VAPOR
LOOP HAS YET TO FULLY INTERACT WITH THIS SURFACE FEATURE. NCEP
MODEL SUITE AND HOURLY RUC13 SUPPORT AN OVERALL INCREASE IN LIFT
/AGAIN LIKELY DUE TO THE WARM ADVECTIVE PROCESSES/ AND MOISTENING
OF THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN. QG VERTICAL MOTIONS DO SUGGEST THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLURRIES AS THIS WILL BE PLACED IN THE
GRIDS/FORECAST. ONCE THE SURFACE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS
NORTHWARD...MARGINAL LAKE INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE WIND
TRAJECTORIES POINT TOWARD LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS
DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO INTO PORTIONS OF THE DACKS. LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE FIELDS INCREASE AS HIRES QPF SUGGEST ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE MINOR.
AFTER A VERY CHILLY START TO THE DAY...WE SHOULD REBOUND BACK INTO
THE 20S FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE CWFA THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LAKE RESPONSE WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT...YET INVERSION LEVELS ARE
LESS THAN IDEAL FOR TALL CONVECTIVE GROWTH AND TOO MUCH SHEAR SEEN
IN THE PROFILES. NEVERTHELESS...AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM ONTARIO PROVINCE...THIS WILL ENHANCE THE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE OVER LAKE ONTARIO FOR A BAND/S/ OF SNOW TO CONCENTRATE
INTO THE DACKS. THIS BAND/S/ WILL MIGRATE SOUTH OVERNIGHT AS THAT
COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTHWARD TOWARD SUNRISE THURSDAY. AS AMPLE LOW
LEVEL STRATUS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...TEMPERATURES
WILL NOT DROP TOO MUCH TO KEEP DIURNAL RANGES RATHER SMALL.
ON THURSDAY...COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTHEAST OF THE CWFA WITH RIDGING
REESTABLISHING ITSELF OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL
LIMIT LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY AS WE WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS FOR
PORTIONS OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY...SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND EASTERN
CATSKILLS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND FURTHER WITH MAINLY LOW-MID
30S FOR THE VALLEY LOCATIONS AND MID-UPR 20S FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.
UPSTREAM...PACIFIC SYSTEM COMES ASHORE AND MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL AID IN AN INCREASE OF
MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND TIGHTENING OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW EVOLVING ALONG AND NORTH OF I90
WHICH CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY. AS THERMAL PROFILES CONTINUE TO
WARM...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO MIX WITH RAIN DURING FRIDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THERE IS ACTUALLY A FAIR AMOUNT OF AGREEMENT DURING AT LEAST THE
FIRST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AMONGST THE GLOBAL FORECAST MODEL
(GFS)/CANADIAN METEOROLOGICAL CENTER MODEL (CMC) AND THE EUROPEAN
CENTER MID RANGE WEATHER FORECAST (ECMWF). THAT SAID...DUE TO LACK
OF ANY STRONG SHORT WAVES UPSTREAM IN THE PACIFIC...AND THE FACT
THAT THE SOUTHERN JETSTREAM AND NORTHERN JETSTREAM REMAIN
BIFURCATED AS THEY HAVE BEEN MOST OF THIS YOUNG WINTER
SEASON...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ONLY AT A MEDIUM LEVEL.
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH A CLIPPER TYPE STORM PROJECTED TO MOVE
NORTH OF THE REGION...POSSIBLY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST REGION FRIDAY NIGHT.
SATURDAY THIS SYSTEM MOVES OFF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND IN ITS
WAKE...RELATIVELY MILD AIR BY JANUARY STANDARDS...FEATURING H850 AT
OR A LITTLE ABOVE 0C...WILL BE OVER THE REGION. THERE COULD BE A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS OR RAIN OR SNOW WELL WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION AHEAD
OF AN INCOMING COLD FRONT. ANY ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY
LOOKS LIGHT.
A TRAILING COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCES OF ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS OF RAIN OR SNOW
ACROSS THE REGION...EXCEPT LOW CHANCES OF SNOW ACROSS THE ELEVATED
TERRAIN TO OUR WEST.
BY SUNDAY...IT LOOKS AS THIS BOUNDARY WILL LAY DOWN SOMEWHERE TO OUR
SOUTH AND STALL. WEAK CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE ATTEMPTS TO BUILD
IN.
EARLIER RUNS OF THE ECMWF INDICATE A SOMEWHAT POTENTIALLY
POTENT WAVE COULD RIDE UP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND BRING A ROUND
OF SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...THE 00Z ECMWF HAS FALLEN
IN LINE WITH THE CMC AND GFS WHICH HAVE BOTH INDICATED ANY WAVE TO
BE WEAKER AND FURTHER SOUTH. THE TIMING OF THIS WAVE IS SLOWER WITH
THE GFS COMPARED TO THE OTHER MODELS MOVING OFF TO OUR SOUTH MONDAY
INSTEAD OF SUNDAY.
NEVERTHELESS...THE EUROPEAN ENSEMBLES INDICATE A VARIETY OF
SOLUTIONS...NOT SURPRISING THIS FAR OUT AS THERE IS STILL A
POTENTIAL FOR ENERGY FROM BOTH THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN JETSTREAMS
TO PHASE. THIS SCENARIO WILL BE WATCHED BUT FOR NOW ONLY KEEP SLIGHT
TO LOW CHANCES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS IF NOTHING ELSE...AN NORTHEAST
FLOW MIGHT KEEP CLOUDS AND LIGHT SPOTTY PRECIPITATION AROUND.
BY TUESDAY...ALL THE MODELS INDICATE WHATEVER SYSTEM IS TO OUR EAST
AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO RUN A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE MILDEST DAY WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO
THE 40S MOST PLACES...WITH 30S CONFINED TO THE HIGHEST TERRAIN
INCLUDING ALL OF THE ADIRONDACK PARK. THE REMAINDER OF THE DAYS WILL
SEE HIGHS RANGING FROM THE 30S TO NEAR 40 VALLEYS AREAS...MID 20S TO
LOWER 30S HIGHER TERRAIN.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIODS...TEENS ADIRONDACKS.
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...BUT THAT
COULD EASILY CHANGE IF ENERGY FROM THE JETSTREAMS HAS THE
OPPORTUNITY TO PHASE AT ANY GIVEN TIME DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH TODAY.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH GENERALLY UNLIMITED VISIBILITY AND NO REAL
SENSIBLE CLOUDS. THE GUSTY NW WIND WILL RELAX...BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE UNDER 5KTS TOWARD DAYBREAK. THE WIND WILL TURN SOUTHERLY
LATER WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE HIGH DEPARTS TO OUR EAST AVERAGING
5-10KTS...PERHAPS A BIT GUSTY AT KALB BY AFTERNOON.
SATELLITE PICTURES DO SHOW LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS STILL TO THE WEST OF
OF KALB. ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS PLUME OF MVFR CLOUDS WILL
STAY TO THE WEST OF ALBANY BUT IT IS REMOTELY POSSIBLE THEY COULD
BRIEFLY SPREAD TO THE AIRPORT THROUGH DAYBREAK. SINCE THE CHANCE OF
THIS HAPPENING IS WELL UNDER 50 PERCENT...DID NOT INCLUDE IN A TEMPO
GROUP. AGAIN...WE WOULD BE TALKING AT WORST MVFR CIGS WITH PERHAPS A
FEW FLURRIES.
LATER ON WEDNESDAY HIGH OR MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION. THIS MIGHT PRODUCE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS AFTER DARK.
OUTLOOK...
WED NT...VFR. CHC MVFR -SHSN.
THU...VFR. CHC MVFR -SHSN.
THU NT...VFR. NO SIG WX.
FRI...VFR. CHC MVFR NORTH OF KPOU WITH -SN.
SAT...VFR. NO SIG WX.
SUN...VFR. CHC MVFR -RA/-SN.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK.
AN ARCTIC AIR MASS RESIDES OVER THE REGION AT THE MOMENT. COLD
TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH BRISK WINDS WILL AID IN THE FORMATION OF
ICE ON MANY BODIES OF WATER THIS WEEK.
ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE LIGHT AND IN
THE FORM OF MAINLY SNOW.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR CTZ001.
NY...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ032-033-
042-058-063-082.
MA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...BGM
FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
232 PM MST WED JAN 4 2012
.DISCUSSION...
232 PM MST WED JAN 4 2012
EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RUC H5 ANALYSIS SHOW PATTERN ACROSS
HIGH PLAINS DOMINATED BY LARGE SCALE RIDGE. WITH DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...IMMEDIATE FOCUS REMAINS ON
NEAR RECORD TEMPS ON THURSDAY.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...H5 RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT SOUTH BY THURSDAY
MORNING...WITH WESTERLY FLOW AND THERMAL TROUGH SUPPORTING WARMER
AIR MASS OVER CWA. THURSDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK TO BE VERY
WARM...WITH NEAR RECORD HIGHS OVER PARTS OF THE CWA. SNOW PACK
CONTINUED TO DETERIORATE TODAY IN THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PART OF
CWA...AND IM NOT CONFIDENT IT WILL HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT
THURSDAY. FOR NOW BEST MIXING STILL APPEARS TO BE OVER NORTHERN
AND WESTERN PARTS OF CWA...WHERE TEMPS AROUND 70 ARE POSSIBLE.
FURTHER SOUTH...I HAVE TRENDED TEMPS UP SLIGHTLY...THOUGH STILL IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S TO ACCOUNT FOR LESSENING IMPACT OF SNOW COVER
IN THE SOUTH. WHILE RH VALUES THURSDAY LOOK TO APPROACH CRITICAL
LEVELS...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT AND BELOW RED FLAG
CRITERIA.
DRY COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH OVER CWA BY FRIDAY MORNING WITH TEMPS
DROPPING BACK CLOSER TO SEASONAL LEVELS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT...THOUGH THEY STILL APPEAR TO BE WARMER THAN NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S.
SATURDAY-TUESDAY...MOST GUIDANCE CURRENTLY SHOWING CUTOFF LOW
DEVELOPING OVER SW CONUS...WITH SPLIT FLOW ACROSS THE
PLAINS...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE
EXTENDED. 06Z/12Z GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE OUTLIER SHOWING THIS
TROUGH PASSING THROUGH THE PLAINS AS OPEN WAVE. WITH THE GEFS
SHOWING SUPPORT FOR THE THE CLOSED SW LOW SOLUTION OF THE
ECMWF/GEM...I DECIDED TO DISCOUNT THE WETTER GFS SOLUTION. BIGGER
QUESTION IN THE EXTENDED WITH BE TO WHAT EXTENT TEMPS WARM UP
MONDAY/TUESDAY. TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S SEEMS REASONABLE FOR
NOW...WITH ECMWF POSSIBLE SUPPORTING TEMPS EVEN A LITTLE WARMER
THESE DAYS.
DR
&&
.AVIATION...
1036 AM MST WED JAN 4 2012
VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE 18Z TAFS. WESTERLY WINDS
WILL BE BREEZY DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS NEAR
20KT...MAINLY FOR KGLD. OTHERWISE WINDS WILL LIGHTEN AFTER
SUNSET.
JTL
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
620 PM EST THU JAN 5 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY, SEASONABLE CONDITIONS INTO
FRIDAY. A WEAK GREAT LAKES COLD FRONT MAY GENERATE SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS OF RAIN AND SNOW ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ONLY SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURE, CLOUDS AND WIND BASED ON BLEND
OF RECENT SURFACE AND SATELLITE DATA AND HRRR AND NAM MODEL OUTPUT.
DESPITE THE REDUCED CLDINESS OVR THE REGION...NAM MODEL PROFILES
CONTINUE TO SHOW SUFFICIENT WARM ADVECTION ABOVE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER TONIGHT TO FORM A STABLE SURFACE CAPPED BY A STRONG TEMPERATURE
INVERSION. HENCE...NOCTURNAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CAN RESULT IN
RENEWED SATURATION OF THIS SURFACE LAYER FOR STRATUS CLOUDS TO
REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS N OF I 70.
EXPECT POSTDAWN MIXING TO CAUSE THE STRATUS TO ERODE ON FRIDAY
WITH AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS.
GFS AND NAM MOS SHOW LOW TEMPERATURES AND HIGHS FRIDAY TO BE ABOUT
10 DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SREF MODEL OUTPUT CONTINUED TO SHOW ZONAL FLOW ALOFT THIS PERIOD,
EXPECT DRY MILD CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND THE NEXT COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE TO BE WEAK SATURDAY. HENCE EXPECT THE SYSTEM TO PRODUCE
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WITH A MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. POST SYSTEM CLOUDS MAY LINGER INTO SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURE WISE, PER BLEND OF RECENT GFS AND NAM MOS VALUES,
EXPECT A WARM UP TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR FRIDAY
AFTERNOON HIGHS AND FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS. WITH MINIMAL POST-SYSTEM
COLD INFLUX, EXPECT WEEKEND TEMPERATURES TO BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES
WARMER THAN NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST SHOULD BE QUIET. LOOKS LIKE
UNSETTLED PATTERN SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF OUR AREA...WITH A COUPLE OF
SYSTEMS PASSING THROUGH. ONE OF THE STORMS MIGHT CLIP THE RIDGES
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...BUT ONLY HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS
POINT.
LOOKS LIKE THE NEXT GOOD CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH A STORM MOVING NORTHEAST FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE GFS/ECMWF DIFFER IN HOW THE SOUTHERN STORM
MAY MERGE WITH A STORM COMING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WHICH WOULD
HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON WHAT WEATHER IS OBSERVED HERE. BELIEVE
THINGS WOULD START PRIMARILY AS RAIN ON WEDNESDAY...A MIX OF
RAIN/SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...ENDING AS SNOW THURSDAY
NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF
THE PERIOD.
NAEFS AND ECMWF MODEL OUTPUT SUGGEST THE JET STREAM PATTERN
BUCKLING LATE WEEK. THE RESULTING WEST COAST RIDGING AND GREAT
LAKES TROUGHING COULD LEAD TO COLDER TEMPERATURES BY NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ONLY HIGH CLOUDS REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION...WITH SOME ISOLATED MID
LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE
DOES NOT SHOW ANY LOW CLOUDS FORMING OVERNIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW A LOW LEVEL INVERSION REDEVELOPING. CONSIDERING AMOUNT OF
STRATUS THAT OCCURRED THIS MORNING...HAVE KEPT MVFR CIGS IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE PERIOD AROUND DAYBREAK. ONCE MIXING PICKS UP LATE
MORNING...THIS SHOULD ALLOW CLOUDS TO SCATTER OUT.
OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE MAY PROVIDE SHOWERS AND RESTRICTIONS LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
REGION SHOULD ALLOW FOR VFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 00Z TAFS
NWS MARQUETTE MI
559 PM EST WED JAN 4 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A WRN RIDGE/ERN TROF
PATTERN OVER THE CONUS. IN THE NW FLOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES...ONE
SHORTWAVE HAS DROPPED SE OF THE AREA WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT NOW
INTO LWR MI. BEHIND THE FRONT...LOWER CLOUDS DEVELOPED INTO THE W
AND PORTIONS OF THE N AND E TODAY...BUT APPARENTLY NO PCPN HAS
OCCURRED. RECENTLY...THE LOWER CLOUDS APPEAR TO BE SCATTERING OUT OF
THE W. NEXT SHORTWAVE OF INTEREST IS APPROACHING BRITISH COLUMBIA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND THU/...
A QUIET NIGHT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. SMALL BUBBLE OF HIGH PRES WILL
SETTLE SE TO A POSITION JUST N OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY SUNRISE THU.
850MB TEMPS HIGHER THAN -10C WILL BE TOO WARM TO SUPPPORT LES.
HOWEVER...THE REGIONAL GEM/ECMWF INDICATE 850MB TEMPS SLIPPING
TOWARD -12C OVER FAR ERN LAKE SUPERIOR OVERNIGHT. IF SO...THERE
COULD BE SOME FLURRIES LATE OVER THE ERN FCST AREA AS LOW-LEVEL
WINDS VEER MORE NORTHERLY. TO THE W...WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO
CALM...AND IT APPEARS THERE MAY NOT BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUD
COVER FOR A PORTION OF THE NIGHT. HAVE THUS FAVORED THE LOWER SIDE
OF GUIDANCE (TEMPS FALLING TOWARD 10F) AS THERE SHOULD BE AN
OPPORTUNITY FOR A PERIOD OF DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING.
SHORTWAVE APPROACHING BRITISH COLUMBIA MOVES TO SCNTRL CANADA THU.
AHEAD OF FEATURE...STRONG WAA PATTERN DEVELOPS INTO THE UPPER
LAKES...AND MODELS DEPICT A SHARPENING 850MB WARM FRONT PUSHING INTO
THE AREA. WITH FRONT SHARPENING AS IT SHIFTS E...ISENTROPIC ASCENT
PER 290/295K SFCS BECOMES STRONGER TO THE E OF THE FCST AREA. SO...
FOR NOW...RETAINED SLIGHT CHC POPS ONLY ACROSS THE KEWEENAW AND E OF
MUNISING TO MANISTIQUE WITH HIGHER POPS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. IT WILL
BE A WARM DAY FOR JAN STANDARDS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE W WHERE
GUIDANCE VALUES NEARING 40F LOOK REASONABLE GIVEN THE WARMTH
SPREADING OUT ACROSS THE DAKOTAS THIS AFTN. TEMPS SHOULD TOP OUT
AROUND 30F/LWR 30S OVER THE E.
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY/...
TRANSITION FM NW FLOW ALOFT TO MORE ZONAL FLOW BY FRIDAY ALLOWS LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH TO STREAK ACROSS MANITOBA/ONTARIO THURSDAY EVENING.
WARM FRONT BRIEFLY WILL PUSH ACROSS UPR MI...BUT SINCE CYCLONIC SIDE
OF JET AND H85-H7 FRONTOGENESIS STAY OVR ONTARIO...EXPECT MAINLY DRY
WX OVR CWA THURSDAY NIGHT. AS SFC LOW MOVES TOWARD SOUTHERN QUEBEC
ON FRIDAY MORNING...A SFC TROUGH SHOULD WORK ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN.
GFS AND NAM SHOW INCREASING MOISTURE BLO H9...MAINLY OVR THE WEST
HALF OF THE CWA...BUT NOT A WHOLE LOT OF UVM IN THAT MOIST LAYER.
WINDS COULD SUPPORT ADDITIONAL UPSLOPE LIFT OVR HIGHER TERRAIN OF
WEST AND NORTHWEST CWA...BUT SINCE TEMPS IN MOIST LAYER ARE MUCH
WARMER THAN -8C THE CHANCE OF ICE WITHIN THE CLOUD IS SLIM. PERHAPS
THERE COULD BE SOME DRIZZLE...BUT SFC DWPNT DEPRESSIONS LOOK TOO
HIGH TO SUPPORT PUTTING THAT IN FCST. WILL RUN WITH A MAINLY CLOUDY
BUT DRY FCST FOR NOW. AS PREVIOUS SHIFT DID...WENT WITH NON-DIURNAL
TEMP TREND THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. READINGS ON FRIDAY MOST AREAS
WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING...THOUGH TEMPS IN THE WEST COULD BE TEMPERED
BY THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER. BETTER PUSH OF COOLER AIR AT H85 OF
AROUND -10C ARRIVES FRIDAY NIGHT. COLD AIR ADVECTION AND DEEPENING
MOISTURE/CONVERGENCE THROUGH H85 SHOULD ALLOW FOR LGT SNOW TO
DEVELOP...HELPED ALONG BY LAKE SUPERIOR SOMEWHAT. LOW CHANCE POPS
OVER NORTHERN HALF OF CWA SEEM ON TRACK...HIGHEST IN AREAS FAVORED
BY NW WINDS. REGIME FOR LGT LK EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS LINGERS THROUGH
MUCH OF SATURDAY.
DAYS 4-7...SPLIT FLOW IS FCST TO RETURN IN UPPER LEVELS BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS UPR LOW DEVELOPS OVER SW CONUS WHILE NORTHERN STREAM
BECOMES MORE ZONAL. BY MID-LATE NEXT WEEK THOUGH EXTENDED MODELS AND
ENSEMBLES INDICATE DEEPER TROUGHING/COLDER AIRMASS WILL BEGIN TO
AFFECT MIDDLE CONUS...INCLUDING THE GREAT LAKES.
INITIALLY...ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT SLIDING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
LEADS TO CHANCES FOR MORE LGT LK EFFECT INTO SUNDAY. BLYR WINDS
START OUT NNW SATURDAY EVENING THEN BACK MORE WNW BY SUNDAY.
GFS/ECMWF BOTH INDICATE SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO SUPPORT LK
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. FCST SOUNDINGS FM GFS INDICATE MAJORITY OF
MOISTURE STAYS BLO DGZ WHICH KEEPS RATIOS ON THE LOWER SIDE OF 20:1.
LGT ACCUMS POSSIBLE BUT SHOULD NOT BE TOO MUCH SNOW GIVEN MARGINAL
OVERWATER INSTABILITY. ZONAL FLOW AND WARM AIR ADVECTIONS TAKES HOLD
BY MONDAY. MID CLOUDS MAKE APPEARANCE GIVEN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION
AND SFC LOW SLIDING BY ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO. WEAK FRONT TIED TO
LOW FCST TO MOVE ACROSS UPR LAKES LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. NOT
ENOUGH MOISTURE TO JUSTIFY MUCH PRECIPITATION THOUGH. IF THERE IS
MUCH PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE TO CONSIDER POSSIBILITY OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION AS H85 TEMPS SURGE WELL ABOVE ZERO AHEAD OF PRIMARY
COLD FRONT ARRIVING LATER WEDNESDAY. SOUNDINGS FM GFS DO INDICATE
THAT EVAPORATIVE COOLING WOULD BRING WET BULB TEMP AOB ZERO THROUGH
LOWEST 5KFT. FOR NOW...TOUGH TO GET TOO CARRIED AWAY FM FINE DETAILS
SO INCLUDED MENTION OF BROADBRUSHED MENTION OF RAIN/SNOW FOR PTYPE
MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE
TUESDAY NIGHT. BASED ON SFC TEMPS BLO FREEZING...CAN NOT RULE OUT
FREEZING RAIN EITHER. THOUGH AS WE GET CLOSER TO THIS TIME FRAME
SUSPECT SFC TEMPS FM MODELS MAY TREND WARMER...ESPECIALLY OUT AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT.
SOME AGREEMENT FM THE GFS/ECMWF THAT LARGER SCALE SYSTEM MAY
AFFECT UPR LAKES BY NEXT WEDNESDAY IN ADVANCE OF CHANGE TO COOLER
WEATHER PATTERN. PTYPE WOULD BE MAINLY SNOW BASED ON COOLING H85
TEMPS. MAIN QUESTION IS HOW MUCH PHASING OCCURS BTWN NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH AT THAT TIME AND THE SOUTHERN STREAM
WAVE SLIDING FM SW CONUS INTO SOUTHERN PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY OHIO
VALLEY. RECENT RUN OF THE ECMWF WAS MOST EMPHATIC WITH PHASING WHILE
PREVIOUS ECMWF RUNS AND RUNS OF THE GFS WERE MORE SEPARATE. EVEN
SO...00Z GFS WOULD HAVE WIDESPREAD SNOW ACROSS UPR LAKES ON
WEDNESDAY DUE TO INCREASING UPR JET DIVERGENCE/MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH. 12Z GFS
TRENDED WEAKER WITH THIS LEAD WAVE OF SNOW FOR WEDNESDAY THOUGH. 12Z
ECMWF HAS ALSO TRENDED MORE SEPARATE WITH BOTH STREAMS. SO PROBABLY
WILL BE AT LEAST SOME LIGHT SNOW AROUND ON WEDNESDAY WITH STRONG
COLD FRONT COMING THROUGH LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY LEADING TO
BLO NORMAL TEMPS AND LAKE EFFECT SNOWS FOR THE LATER PORTION OF NEXT
WEEK FOR MAINLY NORTHWEST WIND SNOW BELTS.
&&
.AVIATION /FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THRU THE END OF THE FCST PERIOD AT
KIWD. WILL GET A BIT GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON.
PERSISTENT W TO NW UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN MVFR CIGS LINGERING
AT KCMX THRU TONIGHT. AS WINDS BECOME SSE THU MORNING...EXPECT LOW
CLOUDS TO EXIT WITH RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS.
AT KSAW...THERE MAY BE OCNL PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS THIS EVENING...BUT
OVERALL DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE WIND SHOULD WORK TO KEEP LOWER
CLOUDS MOSTLY SCT. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. WILL GET GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON AS WELL.
&&
.MARINE /FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE/...
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO UNDER 20KT FROM W TO E TONIGHT INTO THU
MORNING AS SMALL AREA OF SFC HIGH PRES SETTLES SE TO JUST N OF LAKE
SUPERIOR BY MORNING. LIGHTER WINDS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL QUICKLY RAMP UP TO 20-30KT IN THE AFTN DUE TO HEALTHY
PRES FALLS SHIFTING E INTO NRN ONTARIO AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRES
AREA MOVING E ACROSS SCNTRL CANADA. MAGNITUDE OF PRES FALLS SUGGESTS
A SHORT PERIOD OF GALES MAY OCCUR THU EVENING. SINCE MODERATING
AIRMASS/INCREASING STABILITY WILL WORK TO LIMIT STRONGER WINDS...
HAVE OPTED TO HOLD OFF FROM ISSUING A GALE WATCH AT THIS POINT.
20-30KT WINDS WILL LINGER INTO FRI AS THE LOW PRES AREA TRACKS E
JUST TO THE N OF LAKE SUPERIOR. LIGHTER WINDS WILL RETURN FOR
SAT/SUN AS THE PRES GRADIENT SLACKENS WITH THE APPROACH OF HIGH PRES.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ROLFSON
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...07
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
400 PM EST WED JAN 4 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A WRN RIDGE/ERN TROF
PATTERN OVER THE CONUS. IN THE NW FLOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES...ONE
SHORTWAVE HAS DROPPED SE OF THE AREA WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT NOW
INTO LWR MI. BEHIND THE FRONT...LOWER CLOUDS DEVELOPED INTO THE W
AND PORTIONS OF THE N AND E TODAY...BUT APPARENTLY NO PCPN HAS
OCCURRED. RECENTLY...THE LOWER CLOUDS APPEAR TO BE SCATTERING OUT OF
THE W. NEXT SHORTWAVE OF INTEREST IS APPROACHING BRITISH COLUMBIA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND THU/...
A QUIET NIGHT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. SMALL BUBBLE OF HIGH PRES WILL
SETTLE SE TO A POSITION JUST N OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY SUNRISE THU.
850MB TEMPS HIGHER THAN -10C WILL BE TOO WARM TO SUPPPORT LES.
HOWEVER...THE REGIONAL GEM/ECMWF INDICATE 850MB TEMPS SLIPPING
TOWARD -12C OVER FAR ERN LAKE SUPERIOR OVERNIGHT. IF SO...THERE
COULD BE SOME FLURRIES LATE OVER THE ERN FCST AREA AS LOW-LEVEL
WINDS VEER MORE NORTHERLY. TO THE W...WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO
CALM...AND IT APPEARS THERE MAY NOT BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUD
COVER FOR A PORTION OF THE NIGHT. HAVE THUS FAVORED THE LOWER SIDE
OF GUIDANCE (TEMPS FALLING TOWARD 10F) AS THERE SHOULD BE AN
OPPORTUNITY FOR A PERIOD OF DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING.
SHORTWAVE APPROACHING BRITISH COLUMBIA MOVES TO SCNTRL CANADA THU.
AHEAD OF FEATURE...STRONG WAA PATTERN DEVELOPS INTO THE UPPER
LAKES...AND MODELS DEPICT A SHARPENING 850MB WARM FRONT PUSHING INTO
THE AREA. WITH FRONT SHARPENING AS IT SHIFTS E...ISENTROPIC ASCENT
PER 290/295K SFCS BECOMES STRONGER TO THE E OF THE FCST AREA. SO...
FOR NOW...RETAINED SLIGHT CHC POPS ONLY ACROSS THE KEWEENAW AND E OF
MUNISING TO MANISTIQUE WITH HIGHER POPS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. IT WILL
BE A WARM DAY FOR JAN STANDARDS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE W WHERE
GUIDANCE VALUES NEARING 40F LOOK REASONABLE GIVEN THE WARMTH
SPREADING OUT ACROSS THE DAKOTAS THIS AFTN. TEMPS SHOULD TOP OUT
AROUND 30F/LWR 30S OVER THE E.
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY/...
TRANSITION FM NW FLOW ALOFT TO MORE ZONAL FLOW BY FRIDAY ALLOWS LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH TO STREAK ACROSS MANITOBA/ONTARIO THURSDAY EVENING.
WARM FRONT BRIEFLY WILL PUSH ACROSS UPR MI...BUT SINCE CYCLONIC SIDE
OF JET AND H85-H7 FRONTOGENESIS STAY OVR ONTARIO...EXPECT MAINLY DRY
WX OVR CWA THURSDAY NIGHT. AS SFC LOW MOVES TOWARD SOUTHERN QUEBEC
ON FRIDAY MORNING...A SFC TROUGH SHOULD WORK ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN.
GFS AND NAM SHOW INCREASING MOISTURE BLO H9...MAINLY OVR THE WEST
HALF OF THE CWA...BUT NOT A WHOLE LOT OF UVM IN THAT MOIST LAYER.
WINDS COULD SUPPORT ADDITIONAL UPSLOPE LIFT OVR HIGHER TERRAIN OF
WEST AND NORTHWEST CWA...BUT SINCE TEMPS IN MOIST LAYER ARE MUCH
WARMER THAN -8C THE CHANCE OF ICE WITHIN THE CLOUD IS SLIM. PERHAPS
THERE COULD BE SOME DRIZZLE...BUT SFC DWPNT DEPRESSIONS LOOK TOO
HIGH TO SUPPORT PUTTING THAT IN FCST. WILL RUN WITH A MAINLY CLOUDY
BUT DRY FCST FOR NOW. AS PREVIOUS SHIFT DID...WENT WITH NON-DIURNAL
TEMP TREND THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. READINGS ON FRIDAY MOST AREAS
WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING...THOUGH TEMPS IN THE WEST COULD BE TEMPERED
BY THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER. BETTER PUSH OF COOLER AIR AT H85 OF
AROUND -10C ARRIVES FRIDAY NIGHT. COLD AIR ADVECTION AND DEEPENING
MOISTURE/CONVERGENCE THROUGH H85 SHOULD ALLOW FOR LGT SNOW TO
DEVELOP...HELPED ALONG BY LAKE SUPERIOR SOMEWHAT. LOW CHANCE POPS
OVER NORTHERN HALF OF CWA SEEM ON TRACK...HIGHEST IN AREAS FAVORED
BY NW WINDS. REGIME FOR LGT LK EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS LINGERS THROUGH
MUCH OF SATURDAY.
DAYS 4-7...SPLIT FLOW IS FCST TO RETURN IN UPPER LEVELS BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS UPR LOW DEVELOPS OVER SW CONUS WHILE NORTHERN STREAM
BECOMES MORE ZONAL. BY MID-LATE NEXT WEEK THOUGH EXTENDED MODELS AND
ENSEMBLES INDICATE DEEPER TROUGHING/COLDER AIRMASS WILL BEGIN TO
AFFECT MIDDLE CONUS...INCLUDING THE GREAT LAKES.
INITIALLY...ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT SLIDING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
LEADS TO CHANCES FOR MORE LGT LK EFFECT INTO SUNDAY. BLYR WINDS
START OUT NNW SATURDAY EVENING THEN BACK MORE WNW BY SUNDAY.
GFS/ECMWF BOTH INDICATE SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO SUPPORT LK
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. FCST SOUNDINGS FM GFS INDICATE MAJORITY OF
MOISTURE STAYS BLO DGZ WHICH KEEPS RATIOS ON THE LOWER SIDE OF 20:1.
LGT ACCUMS POSSIBLE BUT SHOULD NOT BE TOO MUCH SNOW GIVEN MARGINAL
OVERWATER INSTABILITY. ZONAL FLOW AND WARM AIR ADVECTIONS TAKES HOLD
BY MONDAY. MID CLOUDS MAKE APPEARANCE GIVEN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION
AND SFC LOW SLIDING BY ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO. WEAK FRONT TIED TO
LOW FCST TO MOVE ACROSS UPR LAKES LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. NOT
ENOUGH MOISTURE TO JUSTIFY MUCH PRECIPITATION THOUGH. IF THERE IS
MUCH PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE TO CONSIDER POSSIBILITY OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION AS H85 TEMPS SURGE WELL ABOVE ZERO AHEAD OF PRIMARY
COLD FRONT ARRIVING LATER WEDNESDAY. SOUNDINGS FM GFS DO INDICATE
THAT EVAPORATIVE COOLING WOULD BRING WET BULB TEMP AOB ZERO THROUGH
LOWEST 5KFT. FOR NOW...TOUGH TO GET TOO CARRIED AWAY FM FINE DETAILS
SO INCLUDED MENTION OF BROADBRUSHED MENTION OF RAIN/SNOW FOR PTYPE
MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE
TUESDAY NIGHT. BASED ON SFC TEMPS BLO FREEZING...CAN NOT RULE OUT
FREEZING RAIN EITHER. THOUGH AS WE GET CLOSER TO THIS TIME FRAME
SUSPECT SFC TEMPS FM MODELS MAY TREND WARMER...ESPECIALLY OUT AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT.
SOME AGREEMENT FM THE GFS/ECMWF THAT LARGER SCALE SYSTEM MAY
AFFECT UPR LAKES BY NEXT WEDNESDAY IN ADVANCE OF CHANGE TO COOLER
WEATHER PATTERN. PTYPE WOULD BE MAINLY SNOW BASED ON COOLING H85
TEMPS. MAIN QUESTION IS HOW MUCH PHASING OCCURS BTWN NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH AT THAT TIME AND THE SOUTHERN STREAM
WAVE SLIDING FM SW CONUS INTO SOUTHERN PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY OHIO
VALLEY. RECENT RUN OF THE ECMWF WAS MOST EMPHATIC WITH PHASING WHILE
PREVIOUS ECMWF RUNS AND RUNS OF THE GFS WERE MORE SEPARATE. EVEN
SO...00Z GFS WOULD HAVE WIDESPREAD SNOW ACROSS UPR LAKES ON
WEDNESDAY DUE TO INCREASING UPR JET DIVERGENCE/MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH. 12Z GFS
TRENDED WEAKER WITH THIS LEAD WAVE OF SNOW FOR WEDNESDAY THOUGH. 12Z
ECMWF HAS ALSO TRENDED MORE SEPARATE WITH BOTH STREAMS. SO PROBABLY
WILL BE AT LEAST SOME LIGHT SNOW AROUND ON WEDNESDAY WITH STRONG
COLD FRONT COMING THROUGH LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY LEADING TO
BLO NORMAL TEMPS AND LAKE EFFECT SNOWS FOR THE LATER PORTION OF NEXT
WEEK FOR MAINLY NORTHWEST WIND SNOW BELTS.
&&
.AVIATION /FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
LOW CLOUDS/LOW MVFR CIGS AT KIWD MAY PERSIST THRU MUCH OF THE AFTN
GIVEN NW FLOW OVER THE LAKE ENHANCING CONVERGENCE TOWARD KIWD.
HOWEVER...WITH SLIGHT BACKING/WEAKENING OF WINDS INDICATED THIS
AFTN...WILL OPT TO SCATTER OUT THE LOW CLOUDS AND RETURN CONDITIONS
TO VFR. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN CONTINUE THRU THE END OF THE FCST
PERIOD.
PERSISTENT W TO NW UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN MVFR CIGS LINGERING
AT KCMX THRU TONIGHT. AS WINDS BECOME SSE THU MORNING...EXPECT LOW
CLOUDS TO EXIT WITH RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS.
AT KSAW...THERE MAY BE OCNL PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS THIS AFTN...BUT
OVERALL DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE WIND SHOULD WORK TO KEEP LOWER
CLOUDS MOSTLY SCT. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL TONIGHT/THU MORNING
AS DEVELOPING OVERRUNNING PCPN NE OF ADVANCING WARM FRONT SHOULD BE
NE OF THE AREA THU.
&&
.MARINE /FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE/...
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO UNDER 20KT FROM W TO E TONIGHT INTO THU
MORNING AS SMALL AREA OF SFC HIGH PRES SETTLES SE TO JUST N OF LAKE
SUPERIOR BY MORNING. LIGHTER WINDS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL QUICKLY RAMP UP TO 20-30KT IN THE AFTN DUE TO HEALTHY
PRES FALLS SHIFTING E INTO NRN ONTARIO AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRES
AREA MOVING E ACROSS SCNTRL CANADA. MAGNITUDE OF PRES FALLS SUGGESTS
A SHORT PERIOD OF GALES MAY OCCUR THU EVENING. SINCE MODERATING
AIRMASS/INCREASING STABILITY WILL WORK TO LIMIT STRONGER WINDS...
HAVE OPTED TO HOLD OFF FROM ISSUING A GALE WATCH AT THIS POINT.
20-30KT WINDS WILL LINGER INTO FRI AS THE LOW PRES AREA TRACKS E
JUST TO THE N OF LAKE SUPERIOR. LIGHTER WINDS WILL RETURN FOR
SAT/SUN AS THE PRES GRADIENT SLACKENS WITH THE APPROACH OF HIGH PRES.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ROLFSON
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1225 AM EST WED JAN 4 2012
UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
.UPDATE...
GIVEN RECENT IR SATELLITE TRENDS AND FAIRLY DRY LOOK OF 00Z AREA
SNDGS...DECIDED TO UPDATE FOR LESS PESSIMISTIC CLOUD CONDITIONS FOR
MUCH OF THE CWA FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
KEWEENAW PENINSULA (WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW WILL MORE FAVORABLE FOR
CLOUDS AND LIGHT MIXED PCPN)...WENT WITH MORE CLEARING OVERNIGHT AND
ALSO REMOVED MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW AND PATCHY FZDZ.
GENERALLY TRENDED MIN TEMPS DOWNWARD A FEW MORE DEGREES GIVEN LONGER
EXPECTED PERIOD OF CLEAR SKIES. LOOK FOR MINS APPROACHING 10F OVER
WESTERN INTERIOR COLD SPOT LOCATIONS.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT 651 PM EST TUE JAN 3 2012...
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND WED/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROF OF
INTEREST HEADING SE THRU MANITOBA AND THE DAKOTAS. IMPRESSIVE
WARMING IS NOTED AHEAD OF FEATURE. 850MB TEMPS AT KBIS/KABR/KINL
HAVE JUMPED FROM -1/-6/-15C RESPECTIVELY AT 00Z TUE TO 11/9/-9C AT
12Z. STRONG WAA HAS YET TO YIELD ANY PCPN. ONLY SOME MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS ARE NOTED. AS SHORTWAVE CONTINUES ESE...DON`T ANTICIPATE ANY
PCPN TO DEVELOP IN ONGOING STRONG WAA GIVEN OVERALL RELATIVELY DRY
ENVIRONMENT SHOWN ON THIS MORNINGS REGIONAL SOUNDINGS. THERE IS JUST
ENOUGH LINGERING OVERWATER INSTABILITY TO GENERATE SOME -SHSN OFF
THE LAKES UNDER SYNOPTIC FORCING. WIND SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT TO WARRANT A MENTION OF -SHSN OVER THE E THIS EVENING...
AND ALSO OVER THE KEWEENAW LATER THIS EVENING AND OVER THE NE FCST
AREA WED MORNING AS SW WINDS VEER WNW. OTHERWISE...CONCERN AFTER
FROPA IS POTENTIAL FOR -FZDZ AS MIDLEVELS SHARPLY DRY WHILE MODELS
INSIST THAT A SHALLOW MOIST LAYER (2-3KFT THICK) MATERIALIZES. TEMPS
WITHIN THE SHALLOW MOIST LAYER ARE WARMER THAN -10C...SUGGESTING NO
ICE NUCLEATION. SATELLITE/UPSTREAM OBS HAVE YET TO SHOW ANY LOW
CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...NOSE OF HIGHER SFC DWPTS WELL INTO THE
20S INTO SRN MANITOBA/ERN ND IS SUPPORTIVE OF A POTENTIAL LOW-CLOUD
DECK DEVELOPING AS THE MOISTURE ADVECTS INTO COLDER AIRMASS OVER THE
AREA TONIGHT. HAVE THUS INCLUDED A MENTION OF -FZDZ IN THE WNW WIND
UPSLOPE AREAS OVER WRN UPPER MI LATE EVENING INTO THE MORNING HRS
AND OVER THE NE FCST AREA WED. CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
CLOSELY FOLLOWED REGIONAL GEM FOR TEMP TRENDS TONIGHT. SOME AREAS...
ESPECIALLY W AND N...WILL SEE MINS EARLY THIS EVENING WITH TEMPS
SLOWLY RISING THRU THE NIGHT. MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S AROUND 30F
SHOULD BE THE RULE WED.
.LONG TERM /WED NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY/...
WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BE SLIDING THROUGH THE NW FLOW AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD AND WILL LEAD TO SOME MID CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF THE CWA.
LARGE DIFFERENCES IN H850 TEMPS BETWEEN 12Z NAM AND 06Z GFS...WITH
THE NAM AROUND -6C AND GFS AROUND -9C OVER THE ERN LK. 12Z GEM AND
00Z ECMWF ARE A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE GFS THAN THE NAM. THESE
DIFFERENCES PRODUCE UNCERTAINTY IN LK EFFECT CHANCES AND WILL JUST
MENTION FLURRIES OVER THE NW WIND FAVORED AREAS E OF MUNISING WED
NIGHT. AS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION MENTIONED...THERE COULD BE SOME
DRIZZLE INSTEAD...BUT FELT CHANCES WERE TOO LIMITED TO MENTION.
FLATTENING UPPER RIDGE ON THURS WILL BACK H850-500 WINDS TO THE WEST
AND PRODUCE BROAD WAA OVER THE UPPER GREAT LKS. WITH MOISTURE
STREAMING THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW...THINK THERE WILL BE SOME MID
CLOUDS OVER THE AREA THURS INTO THURS NIGHT...BUT DRIER LLVLS WILL
LIMIT PCPN EVEN WITH THE INCREASING WAA. SFC LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE
CANADIAN ROCKIES ON THURS IN RESPONSE TO SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
THE NRN STREAM WILL SHIFT SE TOWARDS LK WINNIPEG BY 00Z FRI. DEEPEST
MOISTURE AND STRONGEST WAA WILL OCCUR OVER SRN ONTARIO AND NRN LK
SUPERIOR ALONG THE DEVELOPING WARM FRONT THURS AFTN INTO THE
EVENING...SO WILL CONTINUE CHANCE PCPN MENTIONS THERE.
WITH THE SFC LOW SLIDING THROUGH SRN ONTARIO THURS NIGHT AND
FRI...SW HALF OF THE AREA WILL BE UNDER DRY WARM MID LVL AIR /H850
TEMPS RISING TOWARDS 2-3C BY 12Z FRI/. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW THE H900 INVERSION ON THURS NIGHT INTO THE
FIRST PART OF FRI...WHICH COULD LEAD TO BROAD LOWER STRATUS AT LEAST
ON THURS NIGHT. NOT ENTIRELY CONF ON AMNT/COVERAGE OF LOW
CLOUDS...SO WILL CONTINUE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE SW HALF OF
THE AREA. INCREASING WINDS...DRIER AIR...AND WEAKENING INVERSION ON
FRI SHOULD DIMINISH CLOUD COVERAGE OVER THE SW HALF. THE REST OF THE
AREA WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF THE MID CLOUDS FROM THE SYSTEM OVER THE
N. WITH AREA IN WARM SECTOR...EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE AREA ON FRI. WILL CONTINUE UPPER 30S FCST...BUT COULD SEE
SOME LOWER 40S OVER THE SCNTRL...WHERE THE WARMEST LLVL AIR WILL BE
LOCATED.
DAYS 4 THROUGH 7 /FRI NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY/...
THE SFC LOW SHIFTING E THROUGH SERN ONTARIO AT THE START OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...DROPPING A COLD FRONT WILL SE ACROSS THE CWA FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT. DEEP MOISTURE/FORCING CONTINUE TO APPEAR LIMITED AND
WILL CONTINUE ONLY LOW END CHANCE POPS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT. THE COLD FRONT THAT DROPS ACROSS THE AREA LOOKS TO GET HUNG
UP OVER UPPER MI AND NRN WI ON SAT NIGHT DUE TO LIMITED COLD AIR
BEHIND TO GIVE IT A PUSH. ADDITIONAL LLVL MOISTURE FROM THE UPPER
TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH AND H850 TEMPS GRADUALLY FALLING TOWARDS
-14C BY SUN MORNING SHOULD LEAD TO A SLOWLY EXPANDING AREA OF LIGHT
LES SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...MAINLY FOR NW WIND LOCATIONS. LACK OF COLD
AIR GETTING FORCING INTO THE DGZ IS THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR...SINCE
INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL INITIALLY BE AROUND 6KFT AND PLENTY OF LLVL
MOISTURE. DID BUMP POPS UP SOME FOR FAVORED LOCATIONS...BUT KEPT
THEM IN THE LOW CHANCE CAT DUE TO LIMITED ACCUM POTENTIAL.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO LK SUPERIOR ON SUN AS UPPER TROUGH
SHIFTS E. DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE WILL LEAD TO LOWERING INVERSION
HEIGHTS AND SHOULD TAPER OFF LES IN THE EVENING. UPPER GREAT LKS
REGION SHIFTS BACK SLIGHTLY NW FLOW ALOFT AS THE RIDGE OVER THE WRN
CONUS FLATTENS. THIS WILL ALLOW WARMER H850 TEMPS TO INVADE THE
UPPER GREAT LKS REGION AND KEEP THE NRN STREAM WAVES RUNNING ALONG
AND JUST N OF THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER. EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUING
TO SHOW WAVE AFFECTING SRN ONTARIO ON MON...WHICH MAY PUSH SOME PCPN
OVER THE NE HALF OF THE CWA...OTHERWISE THE FAIRLY QUIET AND ABOVE
NORMAL TEMP PATTERN OF WINTER CONTINUES.
&&
.AVIATION /FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
KCMX AND KSAW...EXPECT MVFR CLOUDS AT KCMX TO SPREAD INTO KSAW BY
08Z. DEVELOPING WRLY FLOW COULD ALSO RESULT IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MIXED -SN AND -FZDZ BTWN 08-11Z AT KCMX. MOSTLY DOWNSLOPE WNW FLOW
WILL NOT BE FAVORABLE FOR PCPN AT KSAW. LOOK FOR CONDITIONS TO
IMPROVE TO VFR BY LATE MORNING AT BOTH KCMX AND KSAW.
KIWD...NOT CONFIDENT ON A MVFR CEILING DVLPG AT KIWD GIVEN LACK OF
CLOUDS UPSTREAM AS NOTED ON IR SATELLITE. THUS HAVE ONLY MENTIONED A
SCT020 LAYER WHEN THE WIND COMES AROUND TO AN UPSLOPE WRLY DIRECTION
AROUND 08Z. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE
TAF PD.
&&
.MARINE /FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE/...
PERIOD OF S TO SW GALES ARE EXPECTED LATE AFTN/EVENING OVER MUCH OF
LAKE SUPERIOR AS PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS BTWN DEPARTING HIGH PRES AND
APPROACHING LOW PRES TROF. HEALTHY AREA OF PRES FALLS (CURRENTLY
8MB/3HR JUST NW OF LAKE SUPERIOR) SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO NUDGE
WINDS TO GALE FORCE AS PRES FALLS SHIFT EASTWARD THIS EVENING. SW
WIND WILL VEER TO THE NW LATER TONIGHT WED...WITH SPEEDS UP TO 25-30
KTS. AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRES MOVES INTO ONTARIO THU...WINDS OVER THE
LAKE WILL DIMINISH BLO 20KT. LOOK FOR A STRONGER WESTERLY WIND OF
25-30 KTS TO RETURN FRI FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER LOW PRES
SYSTEM THRU ONTARIO.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ250-251-266-267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ221-248-250.
&&
$$
UPDATE...VOSS
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1114 PM EST TUE JAN 3 2012
.UPDATE...
GIVEN RECENT IR SATELLITE TRENDS AND FAIRLY DRY LOOK OF 00Z AREA
SNDGS...DECIDED TO UPDATE FOR LESS PESSIMISTIC CLOUD CONDITIONS FOR
MUCH OF THE CWA FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
KEWEENAW PENINSULA (WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW WILL MORE FAVORABLE FOR
CLOUDS AND LIGHT MIXED PCPN)...WENT WITH MORE CLEARING OVERNIGHT AND
ALSO REMOVED MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW AND PATCHY FZDZ.
GENERALLY TRENDED MIN TEMPS DOWNWARD A FEW MORE DEGREES GIVEN LONGER
EXPECTED PERIOD OF CLEAR SKIES. LOOK FOR MINS APPROACHING 10F OVER
WESTERN INTERIOR COLD SPOT LOCATIONS.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT 651 PM EST TUE JAN 3 2012...
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND WED/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROF OF
INTEREST HEADING SE THRU MANITOBA AND THE DAKOTAS. IMPRESSIVE
WARMING IS NOTED AHEAD OF FEATURE. 850MB TEMPS AT KBIS/KABR/KINL
HAVE JUMPED FROM -1/-6/-15C RESPECTIVELY AT 00Z TUE TO 11/9/-9C AT
12Z. STRONG WAA HAS YET TO YIELD ANY PCPN. ONLY SOME MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS ARE NOTED. AS SHORTWAVE CONTINUES ESE...DON`T ANTICIPATE ANY
PCPN TO DEVELOP IN ONGOING STRONG WAA GIVEN OVERALL RELATIVELY DRY
ENVIRONMENT SHOWN ON THIS MORNINGS REGIONAL SOUNDINGS. THERE IS JUST
ENOUGH LINGERING OVERWATER INSTABILITY TO GENERATE SOME -SHSN OFF
THE LAKES UNDER SYNOPTIC FORCING. WIND SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT TO WARRANT A MENTION OF -SHSN OVER THE E THIS EVENING...
AND ALSO OVER THE KEWEENAW LATER THIS EVENING AND OVER THE NE FCST
AREA WED MORNING AS SW WINDS VEER WNW. OTHERWISE...CONCERN AFTER
FROPA IS POTENTIAL FOR -FZDZ AS MIDLEVELS SHARPLY DRY WHILE MODELS
INSIST THAT A SHALLOW MOIST LAYER (2-3KFT THICK) MATERIALIZES. TEMPS
WITHIN THE SHALLOW MOIST LAYER ARE WARMER THAN -10C...SUGGESTING NO
ICE NUCLEATION. SATELLITE/UPSTREAM OBS HAVE YET TO SHOW ANY LOW
CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...NOSE OF HIGHER SFC DWPTS WELL INTO THE
20S INTO SRN MANITOBA/ERN ND IS SUPPORTIVE OF A POTENTIAL LOW-CLOUD
DECK DEVELOPING AS THE MOISTURE ADVECTS INTO COLDER AIRMASS OVER THE
AREA TONIGHT. HAVE THUS INCLUDED A MENTION OF -FZDZ IN THE WNW WIND
UPSLOPE AREAS OVER WRN UPPER MI LATE EVENING INTO THE MORNING HRS
AND OVER THE NE FCST AREA WED. CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
CLOSELY FOLLOWED REGIONAL GEM FOR TEMP TRENDS TONIGHT. SOME AREAS...
ESPECIALLY W AND N...WILL SEE MINS EARLY THIS EVENING WITH TEMPS
SLOWLY RISING THRU THE NIGHT. MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S AROUND 30F
SHOULD BE THE RULE WED.
.LONG TERM /WED NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY/...
WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BE SLIDING THROUGH THE NW FLOW AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD AND WILL LEAD TO SOME MID CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF THE CWA.
LARGE DIFFERENCES IN H850 TEMPS BETWEEN 12Z NAM AND 06Z GFS...WITH
THE NAM AROUND -6C AND GFS AROUND -9C OVER THE ERN LK. 12Z GEM AND
00Z ECMWF ARE A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE GFS THAN THE NAM. THESE
DIFFERENCES PRODUCE UNCERTAINTY IN LK EFFECT CHANCES AND WILL JUST
MENTION FLURRIES OVER THE NW WIND FAVORED AREAS E OF MUNISING WED
NIGHT. AS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION MENTIONED...THERE COULD BE SOME
DRIZZLE INSTEAD...BUT FELT CHANCES WERE TOO LIMITED TO MENTION.
FLATTENING UPPER RIDGE ON THURS WILL BACK H850-500 WINDS TO THE WEST
AND PRODUCE BROAD WAA OVER THE UPPER GREAT LKS. WITH MOISTURE
STREAMING THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW...THINK THERE WILL BE SOME MID
CLOUDS OVER THE AREA THURS INTO THURS NIGHT...BUT DRIER LLVLS WILL
LIMIT PCPN EVEN WITH THE INCREASING WAA. SFC LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE
CANADIAN ROCKIES ON THURS IN RESPONSE TO SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
THE NRN STREAM WILL SHIFT SE TOWARDS LK WINNIPEG BY 00Z FRI. DEEPEST
MOISTURE AND STRONGEST WAA WILL OCCUR OVER SRN ONTARIO AND NRN LK
SUPERIOR ALONG THE DEVELOPING WARM FRONT THURS AFTN INTO THE
EVENING...SO WILL CONTINUE CHANCE PCPN MENTIONS THERE.
WITH THE SFC LOW SLIDING THROUGH SRN ONTARIO THURS NIGHT AND
FRI...SW HALF OF THE AREA WILL BE UNDER DRY WARM MID LVL AIR /H850
TEMPS RISING TOWARDS 2-3C BY 12Z FRI/. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW THE H900 INVERSION ON THURS NIGHT INTO THE
FIRST PART OF FRI...WHICH COULD LEAD TO BROAD LOWER STRATUS AT LEAST
ON THURS NIGHT. NOT ENTIRELY CONF ON AMNT/COVERAGE OF LOW
CLOUDS...SO WILL CONTINUE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE SW HALF OF
THE AREA. INCREASING WINDS...DRIER AIR...AND WEAKENING INVERSION ON
FRI SHOULD DIMINISH CLOUD COVERAGE OVER THE SW HALF. THE REST OF THE
AREA WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF THE MID CLOUDS FROM THE SYSTEM OVER THE
N. WITH AREA IN WARM SECTOR...EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE AREA ON FRI. WILL CONTINUE UPPER 30S FCST...BUT COULD SEE
SOME LOWER 40S OVER THE SCNTRL...WHERE THE WARMEST LLVL AIR WILL BE
LOCATED.
DAYS 4 THROUGH 7 /FRI NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY/...
THE SFC LOW SHIFTING E THROUGH SERN ONTARIO AT THE START OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...DROPPING A COLD FRONT WILL SE ACROSS THE CWA FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT. DEEP MOISTURE/FORCING CONTINUE TO APPEAR LIMITED AND
WILL CONTINUE ONLY LOW END CHANCE POPS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT. THE COLD FRONT THAT DROPS ACROSS THE AREA LOOKS TO GET HUNG
UP OVER UPPER MI AND NRN WI ON SAT NIGHT DUE TO LIMITED COLD AIR
BEHIND TO GIVE IT A PUSH. ADDITIONAL LLVL MOISTURE FROM THE UPPER
TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH AND H850 TEMPS GRADUALLY FALLING TOWARDS
-14C BY SUN MORNING SHOULD LEAD TO A SLOWLY EXPANDING AREA OF LIGHT
LES SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...MAINLY FOR NW WIND LOCATIONS. LACK OF COLD
AIR GETTING FORCING INTO THE DGZ IS THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR...SINCE
INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL INITIALLY BE AROUND 6KFT AND PLENTY OF LLVL
MOISTURE. DID BUMP POPS UP SOME FOR FAVORED LOCATIONS...BUT KEPT
THEM IN THE LOW CHANCE CAT DUE TO LIMITED ACCUM POTENTIAL.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO LK SUPERIOR ON SUN AS UPPER TROUGH
SHIFTS E. DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE WILL LEAD TO LOWERING INVERSION
HEIGHTS AND SHOULD TAPER OFF LES IN THE EVENING. UPPER GREAT LKS
REGION SHIFTS BACK SLIGHTLY NW FLOW ALOFT AS THE RIDGE OVER THE WRN
CONUS FLATTENS. THIS WILL ALLOW WARMER H850 TEMPS TO INVADE THE
UPPER GREAT LKS REGION AND KEEP THE NRN STREAM WAVES RUNNING ALONG
AND JUST N OF THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER. EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUING
TO SHOW WAVE AFFECTING SRN ONTARIO ON MON...WHICH MAY PUSH SOME PCPN
OVER THE NE HALF OF THE CWA...OTHERWISE THE FAIRLY QUIET AND ABOVE
NORMAL TEMP PATTERN OF WINTER CONTINUES.
&&
.AVIATION /FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE EVENING HRS AT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW UNDER A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS. WITH SFC HIGH PRES
EXITING TO THE E...A STRENGTHENING S WIND DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON
BTWN THE DEPARTING HI AND A DISTURBANCE/AREA OF PRES FALLS PASSING
THRU NRN ONTARIO. S WINDS MAY STILL GUST AOA 20 KT INTO EARLY
EVENING AT KIWD AND KSAW...BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT WINDS TO DECOUPLE
WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF LLWS DEVELOPING. AS THE ONTARIO
DISTURBANCE MOVES FARTHER TO THE E TONIGHT...A LOW PRES TROF WILL
SWING ACROSS UPPER MI. AS THE FLOW VEERS TO THE WNW...EXPECT LOW
CLDS/MVFR CIGS AND PERHAPS SOME -FZDZ OR -SN TO DEVELOP WHERE THIS
FLOW UPSLOPES AT KCMX/KIWD. CONFIDENCE IS LOW. DOWNSLOPE NATURE OF
THE WIND AT KSAW WILL LIMIT THIS POTENTIAL THERE. EXPECT MVFR CIGS
TO LIFT BTWN 16-18Z ON WED AT ALL SITES WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE
REST OF WED AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE /FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE/...
PERIOD OF S TO SW GALES ARE EXPECTED LATE AFTN/EVENING OVER MUCH OF
LAKE SUPERIOR AS PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS BTWN DEPARTING HIGH PRES AND
APPROACHING LOW PRES TROF. HEALTHY AREA OF PRES FALLS (CURRENTLY
8MB/3HR JUST NW OF LAKE SUPERIOR) SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO NUDGE
WINDS TO GALE FORCE AS PRES FALLS SHIFT EASTWARD THIS EVENING. SW
WIND WILL VEER TO THE NW LATER TONIGHT WED...WITH SPEEDS UP TO 25-30
KTS. AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRES MOVES INTO ONTARIO THU...WINDS OVER THE
LAKE WILL DIMINISH BLO 20KT. LOOK FOR A STRONGER WESTERLY WIND OF
25-30 KTS TO RETURN FRI FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER LOW PRES
SYSTEM THRU ONTARIO.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ250-251-266-267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ221-248-250.
&&
$$
UPDATE...VOSS
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
351 PM EST WED JAN 4 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN ACROSS OUR AREA AND REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY. EXPECT A WARMING TREND WITH FAIR WEATHER
DURING THAT TIME PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING
CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION...CLOUD COVER IS NOW
PUSHING EAST OF OUR AREA. SUNSHINE OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS
HAS BEEN MELTING OFF WHAT IS LEFT OF SNOW COVER ACROSS THE WEST.
RESIDUAL PATCHES SNOW COVER WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE EAST...WHERE
CLEARING OCCURRED LATER IN THE DAY. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR
TO START OFF TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO
DECOUPLE RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS. DEWPOINTS ARE STILL IN THE
UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS COMBINATION WILL RESULT
IN DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING RAPIDLY
THIS EVENING AFTER SUNSET.
A WEAK DISTURBANCE SWEEPING ACROSS LAKE ERIE IS FORECAST TO
INCREASE LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF OUR
FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL LEVEL OFF TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THOSE ZONES. HOWEVER...DUE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING THE FIRST HALF
OF THE NIGHT AND WITH LIGHT SNOW COVER...TEMPERATURES WOULD HAVE
ALREADY DROPPED THE LOW 20S. ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF OUR
FORECAST AREA...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE DURATION OF NIGHT WILL
RESULT IN TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S BY
SUNRISE. WENT NEAR MOS GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE IN
THE EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD. AS LOW LEVEL RIDGING SLIDES TO OUR EAST
THURSDAY...WARM ADVECTION WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING A
WARMING TREND TO OUR AREA. BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL DRAG A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA ON SATURDAY. LATEST MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO SHOW LIMITED
MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONT SO ONLY WENT WITH SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTHEAST PORTION OF FA. TEMPS WILL BE WARM ENOUGH SO THAT
ANY PRECIPITATION THAT MAY FALL WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN PROVIDE AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY CONDITIONS THAT IS EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. EARLIER ECMWF RUNS WERE BRUSHING THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF CWA WITH SOME PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE
MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES EARLY MONDAY. HOWEVER...THESE RUNS
WERE TRENDING FURTHER NORTH AND SHOWING SOMEWHAT WEAKER FORCING. THE
12Z ECMWF NO LONGER HAS PRECIP ACROSS OUR CWA FOR MONDAY MORNING SO
DECIDED TO GO WITHOUT POPS FOR THIS PERIOD. THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF
HAVE COME INTO SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT ON DEVELOPMENT OF 500MB
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER WRN US THIS WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM WILL
PROPAGATE EASTWARD THROUGH SRN PLAINS DURING THE FIRST PART OF
NEXT WEEK AND THEN BECOME ABSORBED INTO LARGER SCALE TROUGH AS IT
LIFTS NORTH ON WEDNESDAY. DUE TO INCONSISTENCIES BETWEEN PREVIOUS
RUNS...DECIDED ONLY TO INTRODUCE SLIGHT POPS AT THIS TIME FOR THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S...AND LOWS RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WITH THE RUC AND SREF INDICATING HIGHER CONFIDENCE WITH LL
MOISTURE WORKING INTO NORTHERN AREAS AS THE UPR DISTURBANCE
RETREATS AND NW FLOW TAKES OVER...HAVE BROUGHT IN A TEMPO PERIOD
BETWEEN 08-11Z AT KDAY/KCMH/KLCK WITH THIS POSSIBILITY WITH
MENTION OF POTENTIAL MVFR CIGS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL THROUGH PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LATTO
NEAR TERM...LATTO
SHORT TERM...LATTO
LONG TERM...KURZ
AVIATION...JDR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
1255 PM EST WED JAN 4 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING THROUGH THE AREA WILL
INCREASE CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY...WITH CLOUDS DIMINISHING ACROSS
THE SOUTH AND WEST TONIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION. DRY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY/...
DESPITE RETURNS ON KILN AS HIGH AS 30 DBZ WITH PASSING
DISTURBANCE...VIEW OF TDWR DATA CONFIRMS THIS IS ALL MID/HIGH
BASED WITH VIRGA AT BEST. LOW LEVELS STILL TOO DRY TO PRODUCE
PRECIP WITH THIS PASSING SYSTEM. AS THE MID/HIGH CLOUDS PIVOT OUT
OF AREA THIS EVENING...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES OVER THE
NORTHERN FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. THE RESULT WILL BE POSSIBLE LOW
CLOUDS THIS AREA...WITH PC SKIES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN HALF OF FCST
AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FA THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM TIME FRAME. THERE WILL BE A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH UP INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S ACROSS
THE AREA BY FRIDAY. WITH WARM SW FLOW WENT ON THE WARM SIDE OF
GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PRECIPITATION WORKS UP INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH ON SATURDAY.
THE ECMWF IS FURTHER NORTH WITH THE PRECIPITATION THAN THE GFS
HOWEVER THE LATEST ECMWF HAS COME A LITTLE CLOSER IN LINE WITH THE
GFS. WENT CLOSE TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
PRECIPITATION WILL MAINLY BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN ON SATURDAY
HOWEVER AS COLDER AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT THERE
WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SNOW SHOWERS TO OCCUR AS WELL.
PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE OUT OF THE FA BY SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
STRUGGLE TO RISE ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MIDDLE
30S TO THE LOW 40S.
ON MONDAY A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL WORK THROUGH THE FA.
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING THIS FEATURE INTO
THE AREA. MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM HOWEVER SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
FA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY ALLOWING
FOR DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WITH THE RUC AND SREF INDICATING HIGHER CONFIDENCE WITH LL
MOISTURE WORKING INTO NORTHERN AREAS AS THE UPR DISTURBANCE
RETREATS AND NW FLOW TAKES OVER...HAVE BROUGHT IN A TEMPO PERIOD
BETWEEN 08-11Z AT KDAY/KCMH/KLCK WITH THIS POSSIBILITY WITH
MENTION OF POTENTIAL MVFR CIGS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL THROUGH PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JDR/NOVAK
NEAR TERM...JDR
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...JDR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
1019 AM EST WED JAN 4 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK INTO THE AREA
FOR TONIGHT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WHILE GENERALLY WARMER AIR TO WORK INTO ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN FCST
AREA...THE WEAK UPR DISTURBANCE WILL BRING CLOUDS THROUGH THE AREA
THROUGH THE DAY. VIRGA HAD BEEN REPORTED AT KIND/KCVG WITH CLOUDS
LOWERING A BIT. HRRR BRINGS IN SOME LIGHT SHOWERS BY THE TIME THE
DISTURBANCE REACHES SE FCST AREA...BUT LOW LEVELS ARE PRETTY DRY
SO AM NOT BRINGING IN ANYTHING OTHER THAN ADJUSTING CLOUDS AND
EVEN SOME TEMPS IN THE SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FA THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM TIME FRAME. THERE WILL BE A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH UP INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S ACROSS
THE AREA BY FRIDAY. WITH WARM SW FLOW WENT ON THE WARM SIDE OF
GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PRECIPITATION WORKS UP INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH ON SATURDAY.
THE ECMWF IS FURTHER NORTH WITH THE PRECIPITATION THAN THE GFS
HOWEVER THE LATEST ECMWF HAS COME A LITTLE CLOSER IN LINE WITH THE
GFS. WENT CLOSE TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
PRECIPITATION WILL MAINLY BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN ON SATURDAY
HOWEVER AS COLDER AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT THERE
WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SNOW SHOWERS TO OCCUR AS WELL.
PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE OUT OF THE FA BY SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
STRUGGLE TO RISE ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MIDDLE
30S TO THE LOW 40S.
ON MONDAY A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL WORK THROUGH THE FA.
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING THIS FEATURE INTO
THE AREA. MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM HOWEVER SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
FA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY ALLOWING
FOR DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CONSIDERABLE
HIGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION. A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH AFTER 18Z WHICH WILL CAUSE WINDS TO
VEER. THERE MAY BE SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
BOUNDARY. BUT AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT ANY LOWER CLOUDS WILL
BE SCATTERED AT BEST.
OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...JDR
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
1151 AM CST WED JAN 4 2012
.AVIATION...VFR SKIES WITH ONLY A FEW CIRRUS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WINDS INITIALLY ABOVE 12 KT AT MOST SITES...BUT WILL DECREASE
BELOW 12 KT BY 04/20-23 Z AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN. WIND
DIRECTION WILL GO FROM NORTH TO WEST BY EVENING...AND THEN
SOUTHWESTERLY BY MORNING. TAFS FOLLOW THE RUC AND NAM CLOSELY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1105 AM CST WED JAN 4 2012/
UPDATE...
HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
BREEZY NORTH WINDS TODAY BEHIND THE FRONT. HOWEVER... WIND SPEEDS
WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON. WILL SEND UPDATES SHORTLY.
MAXWELL
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 AM CST WED JAN 4 2012/
DISCUSSION...
FOR THURSDAY, SFC WINDS SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY, BRINGING IN WARMER
AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR. THE CHANGE IN AIR MASS WILL ELEVATE FIRE
DANGER, ALTHOUGH EXPECTED WIND SPEEDS SO FAR SHOULD KEEP IT JUST
BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE DIGGING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS DURING THE END OF THIS WEEK, BRINGING IN A
MODERATE BUT DRY COLD FRONT PASSAGE FOR FRIDAY. THE 1000-850 MB
THICKNESS PROGS KEEP THE COLDEST AIR WELL UP IN THE NORTHERN
PLAINS, WHILE COOLER AIR SPREADING INTO OUR AREA WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONABLE FOR THE WEEKEND.
FOR NEXT WEEK, ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BE DIGGING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DIFFER WITH
THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM. THE GFS PRODUCES A WEAKER SYSTEM, KEEPING
THE UPPER LOW AND QPF WELL TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS.
HOWEVER, THE ECMWF PRODUCES A MUCH STRONGER SYSTEM, WITH THE UPPER
LOW TRACKING ALONG THE RED RIVER, WITH RAIN POSSIBLE LATE TUES TO
EARLY WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW, WILL CONTINUE WITH THE GFS DRIER
SOLUTION DUE TO MODEL UNCERTAINTIES THIS FAR OUT IN TIME.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 59 33 65 35 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 59 31 63 34 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 62 32 69 35 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 58 28 69 29 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 56 33 62 34 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 58 34 61 38 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
25/22/22
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
520 PM CST THU JAN 5 2012
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
321 PM CST THU JAN 5 2012
AT 3 PM...A WARM FRONT WAS LOCATED ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN. AS
MIXING HAS OCCURRED WEST OF THIS FRONT...TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN
RAPIDLY RISING. WITH SOME RESIDUAL SNOW COVER LOCATED NORTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR...TEMPERATURES ARE RANGING FROM THE UPPER
30S TO MID 40S. THIS IS STILL 20 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
MEANWHILE WITH NO SNOW LOCATED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
TEMPERATURES HAVE SURGED INTO THE 50S....WHICH SMASHING MANY DAILY
TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR THE DATE. WOULD NOT BE OVERLY SURPRISED TO
SEE A 60 DEGREE TEMPERATURE BEFORE THE END OF THE DAY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA...OR EVEN SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN. IN MANY LOCATIONS...THIS IS THE WARMEST JANUARY DAY
SINCE JANUARY 8 2003 WHICH WOULD MAKE IT IN THE TOP 10 FOR WARMEST
JANUARY DAYS EVER RECORDED. THE 54 DEGREE TEMPERATURE AT ROCHESTER
CURRENTLY IS THEIR THIRD WARMEST JANUARY DAY AND THE WARMEST
JANUARY DAY SINCE JANUARY 25 1981 /54 DEGREES/. THEIR WARMEST
JANUARY TEMPERATURE IS 58 DEGREES ON JANUARY 25 1944.
THE 05.12Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT. WITH THE AIR MASS
BEHIND THIS FRONT BEING OF PACIFIC ORIGIN...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT
BE OVERLY COLD BEHIND THIS FRONT. LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL
BE MAINLY IN THE 30S /WHICH IS STILL 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE THE
DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE/ AND CLIMB BACK INTO THE 40S ON FRIDAY.
ON SATURDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DRY ON SATURDAY NIGHT. LIKE
ITS PREDECESSOR TONIGHT...THE AIR MASS BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL BE OF
PACIFIC ORIGIN...SO TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
321 PM CST THU JAN 5 2012
LOOKING ACROSS THE TROPICS...A WEAKENING MADDEN JULIAN /MJO/
OSCILLATION WILL BE MOVING EAST INTO THE WESTERN PACIFIC DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A POSITIVE
PACIFIC NORTH AMERICAN TELECONNECTION /WESTERN RIDGE AND EASTERN
TROUGH/ AND A NEGATIVE ARCTIC OSCILLATION. THIS HAS NOT HAPPENED
SINCE EARLY TO MID DECEMBER. THE 05.12Z MODELS SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD
HANDLE ON THIS SYNOPTIC SITUATION...BECAUSE THEY ARE SHOWING A
LONG WAVE TROUGH BEING CARVED OUT ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
UNITED STATES. AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH...THE ECMWF IS FORECASTING
925 MB TEMPERATURES SURGING INTO THE 2 TO 6C RANGE. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SURGING INTO THE LOWER AND MID 40S
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SINCE THE ECMWF TYPICALLY VERIFIES THE BEST
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WENT WITH A 50-50 BLEND OF THE ALL BLEND
AND ECMWF TO NUDGE THE TEMPERATURES UP FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY RETURN TOWARD
NEAR OR EVEN BELOW NORMAL.
WITH THE MODELS CONTINUING TO INDICATE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION
ALONG AND BEHIND THIS FRONT...KEPT THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES GOING FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE WARM ENOUGH ON WEDNESDAY THAT THE
PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY START OUT AS RAIN AND THEN TRANSITION TO
SNOW. LITTLE...IF ANY...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
SYSTEM.
BEYOND THIS TIME PERIOD...IT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER AREA OF
STRENGTHENING TROPICAL FORCING /CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE
EASTERN ATLANTIC/ WILL BE MOVING EAST INTO THE INDIAN OCEAN. AS
THIS OCCURS...THE POLAR JET MAY MIGRATE ONCE AGAIN NORTH OF THE
AREA. THIS POTENTIALLY COULD LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF WARM
TEMPERATURES. CPC/S CFS VERSION 2 MODEL HAS BEEN HINTING THAT THIS
MAY OCCUR FOR LATTER JANUARY AND CONTINUE INTO FEBRUARY. ONLY TIME
WILL TELL WHETHER THIS MATERIALIZES OR NOT.
&&
.AVIATION...
520 PM CST THU JAN 5 2012
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS CHURNING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...AND WILL SINK ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME HIGH CLOUDS TO THE TAF SITES...ALONG WITH A
WIND SHIFT FROM SW TO MORE W-NW...IN THE 06-12Z FRI TIME FRAME. IT
LOOKS LIKE A GRADUAL SHIFT RATHER THAN ABRUPT. WINDS WILL MIX A BIT
DEEPER ON FRIDAY...LENDING A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SOME AFTERNOON
GUSTINESS. OVERALL...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.
ONE SHORT-TERM CONCERN IS IT APPEARS THAT WINDS HAVE DECOUPLED IN
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...WITH 23Z OBS AT ONA...LSE AND PDC
CALM TO LIGHT SE. RUC BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW THIS AND SUGGEST THAT
THE LIGHT WIND REGIME COULD HOLD FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. CONFIDENCE
NOT HIGH...BUT WILL LEAN THIS WAY FOR KLSE...AND MONITOR OBS FOR ANY
CHANGES.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
218 PM CST THU JAN 5 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM....BOYNE
AVIATION.....RIECK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
313 AM CST WED JAN 4 2012
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
313 AM CST WED JAN 4 2012
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PACKAGE...ABOVE TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
DATA ANALYSIS AT 06Z HAD LOW PRESSURE OVER HUDSONS BAY WITH A FRONT/
TROUGH TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST ACROSS CENTRAL ONT TO NORTHERN WI
AND EASTERN KS. ALOFT...LOOP OF WV IMAGERY DEPICTED A MDT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH PROGRESSING RATHER QUICKLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
EARLY THIS MORNING. PASSING SHORTWAVE AND PRESSURE FALLS WITH IT
KEEPING THE SFC TROUGH/FRONT MOVING STEADILY ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING...WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST THEN NORTHWEST. TEMPS
BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE UPPER 20S-LOW 30S ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST 1/3
OF MN...WITH PRESSURE RISES AND STRONGER WINDS FOR MORE BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...TEMPS ELSEWHERE ACROSS
MN/IA/WI STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY JAN.
NO BIG ERRORS NOTED WITH 04.00Z MODEL RUNS...WITH THEIR SOLUTIONS
IN THE QUIET/MILD WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE REGION QUITE SIMILAR FOR
TONIGHT THU FRI NIGHT. DPROG/DT OF 500MB HGTS AT 04.00Z SHOWED MODEL
RUNS OF 02.00Z AND 03.00Z VERIFIED WELL ACROSS NOAM/EASTERN PAC...
WITH STRONGER/SLOWER OF EARLIER RUNS BETTER WITH THE SHORTWAVE
DROPPING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS/MN. ECMWF WITH THE BETTER RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY AT 04.00Z. GOOD...TIGHTER CONSENSUS AMONG THE MODELS FOR
TODAY INTO THU AS HGTS/RISE RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.
TIGHTER CONSENSUS THU NIGHT/FRI AS HGTS THEN FALL AS STRONGER
SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRACK EAST ALONG THE US/CAN BORDER AND ACROSS LK
SUPERIOR. TREND DOES FAVOR FASTER OF EARLIER MODELS WITH THE WAVE
ACROSS LK SUPERIOR ON FRI. BETTER CONSENSUS ON THE SHORTWAVE DETAILS
FRI NIGHT AS ENERGY IN BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DROPS INTO MN/IA.
NO MODEL WITH CLEARLY BETTER RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY IN THE TODAY
THRU FRI NIGHT PERIOD. CHECK OF OBS VS. MODEL DATA AT 06Z SHOWED
ALL WITH DECENT DEPICTIONS OF THE SFC MASS FIELDS OVER CENTRAL NOAM.
PER WV IMAGERY...ALL LOOKED TO HAVE GOOD DEPICTIONS OF THE SHORTWAVE
DETAILS OVER NOAM/EASTERN PAC. MODELS ACTUALLY DOING A RESPECTABLE
JOB WITH THE MILD POST-FRONTAL TEMPS IN THE KFSD/KOMA AREAS EARLY
THIS MORNING. NO DETERMINISTIC MODEL FAVORITE AND WITH THE TREND
TOWARD A TIGHTER CONSENSUS SOLUTION...FAVORED THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE
CONSENSUS. WHAT MINOR MODEL DIFFERENCES THERE ARE APPEAR TO HAVE
LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER THRU FRI NIGHT. SHORT
TERM FCST REMAINS GOOD THIS CYCLE.
FOR THE SHORT TERM...POST-FRONTAL PRESSURE RISE...INCREASE OF WINDS
AND STEADY/SLOWLY RISING TEMPS TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. WINDS QUICKLY BECOME WEST THEN SOUTHWEST THRU THE DAY AS
THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH DROPS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. LOW LEVEL
WARM ADVECT RETURNS RATHER QUICKLY TODAY AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES WESTERLY. PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA TODAY ON THE
WEAK SIDE WITH WINDS MAINLY IN THE 5 TO 10KT RANGE...WHICH WILL
LIMIT MIXING. ON THE PLUS SIDE...SUNNY OR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA WITH LIMITED MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IN
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AS IT BUILDS EAST. HIGHS TODAY WILL ONCE
AGAIN RETURN TO THE 30S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. SFC-850MB WARM ADVECTION
CONTINUES TONIGHT/THU WITH 925MB TEMPS IN THE +6C TO +13C RANGE BY
00Z FRI. WINDS TONIGHT A FAVORABLE SOUTHWEST WARMING DIRECTION BUT
GRADIENT REMAINS ON THE WEAK SIDE AND SFC WINDS MOSTLY IN THE 5KT
RANGE. THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS THU AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
INTO SASKAT/MT AND BEGINS TO SHEAR EASTWARD. THIS WAVE PUSHES AN
INCREASE OF 500-300MB MOISTURE THRU THE FLATTENING RIDGE AND ACROSS
THE AREA BY THU AFTERNOON. WINDS ON THE LIGHT SIDE AND POTENTIAL FOR
AFTERNOON CIRRUS WILL TEMPER THE WARM-UP THU...BUT MOST LOCATIONS
SHOULD STILL SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S GIVEN THE LACK OF
SNOW COVER. THE FAST MOVING SASKAT/MT WAVE MOVES PUSHES A SFC
TROUGH/COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA THU NIGHT...MUCH LIKE THE ONE THIS
MORNING. LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION DOES SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THU
NIGHT...BUT AIRMASS BEHIND THE TROUGH/FRONT OF MODIFIED PACIFIC
ORIGIN WITH ARCTIC AIR REMAINING WELL NORTH IN CANADA. GRADIENT
TIGHTENS A BIT FOR THU NIGHT/FRI WITH MORE WIND FOR BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXING. A MILD NIGHT EXPECTED THU NIGHT WITH A WARM START TO FRI
MORNING. 925MB TEMPS OVER THE AREA IN THE +2C TO +8C RANGE AT 12Z
FRI...ONLY FALLING TO -1C TO +4C BY 00Z SAT. WITH MIXING...THESE
TEMPS STILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S FRI. LOW LEVEL
COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES FRI NIGHT BUT SOME WEST/NORTHWEST GRADIENT
WINDS KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER STIRRED AND THE HIGHS OF THU/FRI WILL
MELT MUCH OF WHAT SNOW COVER EXISTS WEST/NORTH OF THE FCST AREA.
WITH MINIMAL MOISTURE IN THE 925-600MB LAYER TODAY THRU FRI NIGHT...
PRECIP CHANCES ZERO OR NEARLY SO THRU THE PERIOD.
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HIGHS/LOWS QUITE SIMILAR FOR MOST PERIODS AND
FAVORED A BLEND OF THEM. IF GRADIENT WINDS END UP A BIT STRONGER
THAN EXPECTED THU AND FRI...THE INCREASE OF MECHANICAL MIXING COULD
PUSH HIGHS BOTH DAYS UP A CATEGORY FROM THOSE IN THE FCST GRIDS...
ESPECIALLY ON THU.
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
313 AM CST WED JAN 4 2012
SEASONABLY WARM TEMPS REMAIN THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE DAY 4-7 PERIOD.
04.00Z MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
FLOW AND FEATURES TO IMPACT THE REGION SAT THRU TUE. REASONABLE
CONSISTENCY WITH THEIR PREVIOUS RUNS AS WELL...WITH CONFIDENCE IN
THE LONG-TERM PERIOD AVERAGE TO GOOD. GOOD CONSISTENCY FOR A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA SAT.
HOWEVER LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE LIMITED WITH THIS FEATURE
WITH LITTLE MORE THAN SOME INCREASE OF MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS WITH ITS
PASSAGE. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TO DROP ACROSS THE REGION SUN...WITH
STRONG HGT RISES/WARM ADVECTION TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE REGION
MON/TUE AS THE WESTERN NOAM RIDGE IS PUSHED EAST. GFS WITH A
STRONGER WAVE SUN...AND A BIT MORE SFC-700MB MOISTURE THAN THE OTHER
MODELS. GFS WOULD PRODUCE SOME LIGHT PRECIP IN THE FCST AREA SUN
WHILE OTHER MODELS AGAIN DO LITTLE MORE THAN INCREASE THE CLOUDS
WITH A WEAKER TROUGH PASSAGE. AIRMASS BEHIND THESE WEEKEND FEATURES
AGAIN OF MODIFIED PACIFIC ORIGIN...WITH TEMPS SAT/SUN REMAINING
ABOVE NORMAL. STRONGER LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION MON/TUE WITH
PREDOMINANTLY WESTERLY FLOW WOULD AGAIN SEND EARLY JANUARY HIGHS
INTO THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S ON DAYS 6/7. FAVORING A MODEL/ENSEMBLE
CONSENSUS ON THE DAY 4-7 DETAILS FOR NOW...MODEL CONSENSUS DATA SET
THE SAT THRU TUE FCST GRID SET WELL TRENDED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY
1100 PM CST TUE JAN 3 2012
LATEST SFC OBS AND RUC13 WIND FIELDS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A FRONTAL
PASSAGE AT KRST BETWEEN 08-09Z AND 09-10Z AT KLSE. ONLY SOME HIGH
THIN CLOUDS WITH THE SHIFT TO NORTHWEST WINDS...AND LOOK FOR VFR
CONDITIONS TO PERSIST INTO WED NIGHT.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
313 AM CST WED JAN 4 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM... RRS
AVIATION.... RIECK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1100 PM CST TUE JAN 3 2012
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
237 PM CST TUE JAN 3 2012
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON ANY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
TONIGHT...THEN THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE PATTERN THROUGH FRIDAY.
CURRENTLY AS OF 20Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED RIDGING PRETTY MUCH DOMINATING THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
U.S. INTO SOUTHERN CANADA...EXCLUDING A POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ENTERING THE WESTERN DAKOTAS...WHILE DEEP TROUGHING EXISTED
ALONG THE EAST COAST. STRONG WARM ADVECTION HAS BEEN OCCURRING AHEAD
OF THE WESTERN DAKOTAS SHORTWAVE...NOTED BY 850MB TEMPS THAT ROSE
NEARLY 15C AT ABR AND 8C AT MPX BETWEEN THE 00Z AND 12Z SOUNDINGS.
BOTH SOUNDINGS DEPICT A STRONG INVERSION...ESPECIALLY AT ABR...AND
IS TO BE EXPECTED THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH SHALLOW COLD AIR MASSES
MORE DOMINANT. DAYTIME MIXING THROUGH HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS ALLOWED SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE
20S OVER THE FORECAST AREA...AND INTO THE 30S OVER SOUTHWEST MN INTO
WESTERN IOWA. AIR ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WAS QUITE DRY AS WELL...WITH DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS OFF THE 12Z GRB...MPX AND ABR SOUNDINGS OF 10C OR MORE
FROM 950-650MB. AT THE SURFACE...A WARM FRONT WAS LOCATED ALONG THE
DAKOTAS/MN BORDER...WITH BREEZY SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF IT INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. BEHIND THE FRONT...READINGS ARE IN THE 40S AND 50S
OVER THE DAKOTAS.
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...MODELS PROG THE POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 06-12Z TONIGHT. IN ITS WAKE...40-70 METER
HEIGHT RISES ARE EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AT 500MB WHILE ANOTHER WEAK
SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTHEAST INTO UPPER MICHIGAN. MAIN CONCERN IS
WHETHER OR NOT THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CAN PRODUCE PRECIPITATION
TONIGHT. CERTAINLY THERE ARE DECENT 500MB HEIGHT FALLS...60-90
METERS...INDICATIVE OF THE DYNAMIC FORCING. HOWEVER...ISENTROPIC
LIFT PLOTS ON 285K-300K SURFACES SHOW LITTLE OR NO LIFT...AS WELL AS
PLENTY OF DRY AIR BETWEEN 850-600MB. THEREFORE...NOT EXPECTING ANY
PRECIPITATION WITH THE TROUGH. AFTER THIS...THE ONLY CONCERN IS
CLOUD COVER. THERE MAY BE SOME LOW CLOUDS IN THE WAKE OF THE
TROUGH...BUT MOST OF THESE ARE EXPECTED TO STAY NORTH AND EAST OF
THE AREA. ADDITIONAL MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO COME IN WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE...BUT MOST OF THESE CLOUDS SHOULD
STAY ALONG OR NORTHEAST OF I-94. REGARDING TEMPERATURES...LOWS
TONIGHT WILL END UP MUCH WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT...AIDED BY CLOUD
COVER AND THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT. PREVIOUS FORECAST LOWS SEEM
REASONABLE WHICH ONLY SHOW ABOUT A 5 DEGREE TEMPERATURE DROP FROM
CURRENT READINGS. GIVEN A WARMER START FOR TOMORROW AND 925MB TEMPS
CLIMBING TO -2C TO +1C...HIGHS SHOULD EASILY REACH THE 30S IN MOST
LOCATIONS. A FEW LOCATIONS IN NORTHEAST IOWA COULD EVEN REACH 40.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING...CURRENTLY
SEEN ON WATER VAPOR OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC...IS PROGGED TO
MOSTLY EJECT OUT AND DROP DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA COME FRIDAY IN A POSITIVELY TILTED FORM. AS THE
TROUGH HEADS EAST...A SURGE OF PACIFIC AIR ADVECTS EAST WITH IT INTO
THE FORECAST AREA...WARMED UP EVEN MORE IN RESPONSE TO DOWNSLOPING
OFF THE ROCKIES. 850MB TEMPS CLIMB FROM 0-2C AT 00Z THURSDAY TO AS
MUCH AS 8-12C AT 00Z FRIDAY. SOME COOL DOWN IN 850MB TEMPS IS
FORECAST FOR FRIDAY WITH READINGS DROPPING FROM 6-10C AT 12Z FRIDAY
TO -2 TO +2C BY 00Z SATURDAY...ALL IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING
TROUGH. ALTHOUGH A LOT OF THIS WARMING IS TAKING PLACE ALOFT...AGAIN
AS TO BE EXPECTED THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH A LOWER SUN ANGLE AND
SHORTER DAY LENGTH...THE LACK OF SNOW COVER WILL HELP WITH MIXING.
HOW WARM WE ACTUALLY GET IS THE BIG QUESTION. FIRST OFF...THIS TIME
PERIOD WILL END UP DRY DUE TO THE SERIOUS LACK OF MOISTURE BELOW
10000 FT AS SEEN ON MODEL SOUNDINGS. NOW REGARDING CLOUD COVER. A
STREAM OF MID-HIGH CLOUDS OVER WISCONSIN LATE WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO
PUSH SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THURSDAY...IN RESPONSE TO THE BUILDING
HEIGHTS ALOFT. ANOTHER SURGE OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS LOOKS TO CROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...IN THE WESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...BUT THESE APPEAR TO SCATTER OUT AND DROP
SOUTH FOR FRIDAY. THEREFORE...BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SHOULD END UP
SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY. WINDS ARE FORECAST OUT OF GOOD DIRECTIONS FOR
WARMING...SOUTHWEST ON THURSDAY AND WEST TO NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY...
THOUGH THE SPEEDS ARE 5 TO 10 KT AT BEST. PAST VERIFICATION OF ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURE EVENTS SHOWS THAT THE ECMWF TENDS TO DO THE
BEST...SO THIS FORECAST LEANS CLOSE TO THE ECMWF GUIDANCE...
PARTICULARLY FOR HIGHS.
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
237 PM CST TUE JAN 3 2012
03.12Z ECMWF/GFS/CANADIAN AND GFS ENSEMBLES REMAIN IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE HANDLING OF THE UPPER AIR AND SURFACE PATTERNS
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE CONUS DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THIS LEADS
TO...AT LEAST AT THE MOMENT...ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE. GENERAL
PATTERN SHOWS TROUGHING OVER THE FORECAST AREA SOUTHWESTWARD INTO
THE SOUTHWEST U.S. FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS TROUGHING IS CREATED BY THE
TROUGH APPROACHING THE AREA ON FRIDAY...A POTENT SHORTWAVE DROPPING
SOUTH THROUGH THE ROCKIES...AND THEN ON SUNDAY A SHORTWAVE DROPPING
DOWN TOWARD THE AREA. THIS LAST SHORTWAVE COMES DOWN A BUILDING
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. INTO SOUTHWEST CANADA. WITH THE UPPER
TROUGHING OVER THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
COOLER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED. 850MB TEMPS FALL TO -6 TO -10C
AT 18Z SATURDAY WITH ONLY A SLIGHT WARM UP TO -5 TO -8C AT 18Z
SUNDAY. A BLEND OF GUIDANCE SEEMS REASONABLE FOR TEMPERATURES AT
THIS TIME. DESPITE THE UPPER TROUGHING MOVING ACROSS...THERE IS VERY
LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...THEREFORE NO PRECIPITATION IS
FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND AT THIS TIME.
FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...A MORE POTENT UPPER TROUGH LOOKS TO MOVE
OUT OF THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC INTO SOUTHWEST CANADA...WHICH MAY START
DIGGING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE TUESDAY. THIS UPPER TROUGH
HELPS SHUNT THE BUILDING RIDGING OUT WEST TOWARDS THE FORECAST
AREA...BRINGING WITH IT YET ANOTHER SURGE OF PACIFIC AIR. 850MB
TEMPS CLIMB RAPIDLY TO AT LEAST 0 TO +6C BY 00Z TUESDAY...IF NOT
HIGHER. BY 12Z TUESDAY...THEY ARE SOLIDLY UP TO 6-8C. SOME COOLING
COULD OCCUR LATE TUESDAY...DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THAT UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES. IN ANY EVENT...BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK ABOVE TO
WELL ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE LACK OF SNOW COVER.
STAYED CLOSER TO THE WARM END OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES STILL ARE NIL WITH A LACK OF MOISTURE...AND FORCING IN THIS
CASE.
LOOKING AHEAD...A COLD SHOT OF AIR...SIMILAR TO THE ONE JUST
EXPERIENCED YESTERDAY...APPEARS IN THE OFFERING FOR THE MIDDLE AND
END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS IS DUE TO THE TROUGHING APPROACHING THE AREA
ON TUESDAY DIGGING DOWN TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY. RIGHT NOW ANY
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH APPEARS TO BE LIGHT...BUT
THIS IS STILL 8-10 DAYS OUT.
&&
.AVIATION...
1100 PM CST TUE JAN 3 2012
LATEST SFC OBS AND RUC13 WIND FIELDS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A FRONTAL
PASSAGE AT KRST BETWEEN 08-09Z AND 09-10Z AT KLSE. ONLY SOME HIGH
THIN CLOUDS WITH THE SHIFT TO NORTHWEST WINDS...AND LOOK FOR VFR
CONDITIONS TO PERSIST INTO WED NIGHT.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
237 PM CST TUE JAN 3 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM... AJ
AVIATION.... RIECK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
1028 PM CST TUE JAN 3 2012
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTING EAST OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THIS
AFTERNOON...IN RESPONSE TO MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS OCCURRING OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH. AHEAD OF THIS
TROUGH...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION.
A WARM FRONT LIES FURTHER UPSTREAM ACROSS THE PLAINS BUT THE RAOB
NETWORK SHOW AMPLE DRY AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS AND A LACK OF PRECIP.
AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...CONCERNS FOCUS ON
SMALL POP CHANCES AND TEMPS.
TONIGHT...SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL SLIDE
SOUTHEAST AND BECOME ELONGATED. COMBINED WITH LIFT OVER A
H850 WARM FRONT...THE WAVE HAS SOME DECENT FORCING WITH IT. BUT
SOUNDINGS UPSTREAM REMAIN PRETTY DRY IN THE MID-LEVELS...AND CANNOT
FIND ANY PRECIP REPORTED IN THE OBS OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND
SASKATCHEWAN. AS A RESULT...WILL REMOVE THE LIGHT SNOW SHOWER AND
FLURRY MENTION. WINDS WILL BE STRENGTHENING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE AND MAY FIND IT DIFFICULT FOR WINDS TO
DECOUPLE. WITH THE BKN MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER...TEMPS WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER THAN LAST NITE. LOWS RANGING THROUGH THE TEENS.
WEDNESDAY...POTENT 150KT JET STREAK WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES IN THE AFTERNOON. LEFT FRONT QUAD OF THE JET
WILL PASS TO THE EAST OF THE REGION...KEEPING ANY UPPER DIVERGENCE
FROM CREATING LIGHT PRECIP. WILL STILL SEE INCREASING MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS (ABOVE 9KFT OR SO) AFTER A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS IN THE MORNING. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO REBOUND TO
THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. OVERALL MAINLY
A QUIET AND RELATIVELY MILD PATTERN DURING THIS PERIOD.
UPPER HEIGHTS BUILD WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A WEAK
SURFACE HIGH RIDGE SLIDES OVER. UPPER FLOW BREAKS DOWN BRIEFLY AS
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WORKS OVER THE NORTHERN US REGION. A PERIOD
OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING A NEAR
STEADY TEMPERATURE TREND TO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES REGION WILL THEN SLIDE A WEAK COLD FRONT OVER THE STATE ON
FRIDAY. ANY PCPN WILL BE MINIMAL AND CONFINED WELL NORTH CLOSER TO
THE SYSTEM ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF CAA OVER LAKE SUPERIOR.
WHILE SURFACE RIDGING SETTLES BACK INTO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND
WITH THE WESTERN STATES UPPER RIDGE BUILDING...A CONTINUED PARADE
OF WEAK MID LEVEL SUBTLE SHORT WAVES ARE PROGGED TO DROP OVER THE
AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE LATELY...LITTLE
MOISTURE AVAILABLE WITH THESE PACIFIC ORIGIN SYSTEMS.
MEDIUM RANGE RUNS FLATTEN THE WESTERN RIDGE FOR THE START OF THE
NEW WEEK WITH BUILDING UPPER HEIGHTS FOR THE FORECAST AREA. ANOTHER
WARMING TREND IS ANTICIPATED WITH THE RETURN SOUTHWEST TO WEST
FLOW AS THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES WELL NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES REGION.
WILL GO ABOVE GUIDANCE NUMBERS THURSDAY NIGHT AS WELL AS NEXT WEEK
DUE TO THE WARM AIR ADVECTION. THE AMOUNT OF WARM UP WILL BE
TRICKY DUE TO THE LACK OF SNOW COVER WEST TO SOUTHWEST OF THE
AREA...BUT STILL NEED TO FACTOR IN A COLD GROUND/INVERSION AND
LOW SUN ANGLE...NOT TO MENTION SKY CONDITION.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE. FAIRLY QUIET AS JUST HIGH AND
SOME MIDDLE CLDS EXPECTED TO WORK ACRS THE RGN AS FRONTAL SYSTEM
CROSSES THE AREA. LLWS SHOULD BE DECREASING DURING THE NGT...SO WL
ONLY CARRY AT THE START OF THE TAFS. .
SKOWRONSKI
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
327 AM CST FRI JAN 6 2012
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 325 AM CST FRI JAN 6 2012
ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY MILD DAY EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SE
IL WITH TEMPERATURES MORE LIKE LATE MARCH INSTEAD OF EARLY
JANUARY. WILL CONTINUE TO SIDE WARMER THAN GUIDANCE TEMPS ESPECIALLY
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS AS GUIDANCE AS BEEN MUCH TOO COOL FOR
HIGHS DURING THE PAST FEW DAYS. QUIET WEATHER STILL EXPECTED
THROUGH TUE ALONG WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. 00Z MODELS STILL
DIFFER WITH HANDLING OF CUTOFF LOW MOVING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
STATES DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. GFS AND GEM MODELS
STILL APPEAR TO FAST AND WILL LEAN TOWARD THE SLOWER ECMWF MODEL.
FORECAST CONCERN IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND TYPE WED AND WED
NIGHT.
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY
PREDAWN SURFACE MAP SHOWS ELONGATED 994 MB LOW PRESSURE OVER SW
ONTARIO NORTH OF MN WITH A COLD FRONT OVER NW PARTS OF WI AND IA.
1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO KEEPING MOISTURE
LOCKED NEAR THE GULF COAST. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVER CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN IL EARLY THIS MORNING WITH CIRRUS CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN
IL FROM I-80 NORTH. MILD TEMPS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S
EXCEPT COOLER 34F AT PEORIA AND 48F AT JACKSONVILLE AND 50F AT
PITTSFIELD. DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE LOWER 30S WITH SSW WINDS 5 TO 15
MPH. NEARLY ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE COUNTRY.
MODELS BRING THE WEAK COLD FRONT SE THROUGH THE IL RIVER VALLEY
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNSET AND THROUGH SE IL THIS EVENING.
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED TODAY WITH JUST INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS
WHILE COLD AIR ADVECTION LAGS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. WILL LEAN
TOWARD THE WARMER HRRR MODEL FOR HIGHS IN THE MID 50S FROM THE IL
RIVER NW AND LOWER 60S FROM SPRINGFIELD TO ROBINSON SOUTH. THIS IS
STILL SHY OF RECORD HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70F. COOLER
LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 30S WHICH IS ACTUALLY CLOSE TO
NORMAL HIGHS FOR EARLY JANUARY OVER CENTRAL IL.
MODELS HAVE TRENDED WEAKER WITH UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST THIS WEEKEND WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW STILL OVER CENTRAL IL.
THIS COMBINED WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE SAT WILL NUDGE HIGHS
UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S WITH 50F AT LAWRENCEVILLE. MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING
INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND CENTRAL PLAINS. A BIT COOLER HIGHS IN
THE MID 40S SUNDAY DUE TO MORE CLOUDS. THESE CLOUDS TO DECREASE
FROM NW TO SE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MON MORNING AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLES INTO CENTRAL IL WHILE UPPER LEVEL TROF
BEGINS TO PULL AWAY FROM IL AS UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE AGAIN.
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S MON AND UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S TUE
WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
CONTINUED TO LEAN ON THE SLOWER ECMWF MODEL WITH HANDLING OF
CUTOFF LOW EJECTING FROM THE SW STATES DURING MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
REACHING THE LOWER MS VALLEY TUE NIGHT AND OVER THE TN VALLEY WED.
THIS MODEL HAS TRENDED FURTHER SE WITH QPF OVER SE IL WED WHILE
GEM IS DRY OVER IL. MEANWHILE GFS MODEL WHICH WAS DRY YESTERDAY
NOW IS THE WETTER MODEL WITH SPREADING QPF ACROSS CENTRAL IL
DURING WED. WITH ALL THESE DIFFERENCES WILL LEAVE THE ALLBLEND
POPS INTACT WITH SMALL CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN OVERNIGHT TUE NIGHT
OVER SE IL AND 20-40% CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN WED WITH SLIGHT CHANCES
NW OVER THE IL RIVER VALLEY WHILE 40% IN SE IL. MEANWHILE A STRONG
NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL TROF/LOW TO DIG SOUTH INTO THE MIDWEST
WED AND WED NIGHT PUSHING THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES WED NIGHT. BRUNT OF PRECIPITATION TO SHIFT EAST OF
IL WED NIGHT AND THU AS COLDER AIR USHERS INTO IL. THIS TO CHANGE
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS DURING WED NIGHT AND A
FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLY LINGERING THU ESPECIALLY IN
EASTERN IL. TEMPS FINALLY COOL BACK TO NORMAL THU AND THEN DRY AND
SEASONABLY COLD NEXT FRI.
HUETTL
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1132 PM CST THU JAN 5 2012...FOR THE 06Z TAFS
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE QUIET
WEATHER CAN BE ATTRIBUTED TO HIGH PRESSURE AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT/TROUGH. STEADY SW WINDS AT 8-12KT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WHEN THE COLD FRONT MAKES PROGRESS ACROSS C IL
FROM WEST TO EAST. THE FRONT SHOULD REACH PIA BY 18Z AND CMI BY
22Z. WINDS WILL BECOME WEST BY EVENING AND EVENTUALLY NW BY MIDNIGHT.
THE FRONT WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED...SO ONLY SOME MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT. NO REDUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY
ARE EXPECTED.
SHIMON
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
143 AM EST FRI JAN 6 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR A BRIEF TIME
TONIGHT. BY LATER TONIGHT...A WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION. SOME PERIODS OF
LIGHT PRECIPITATION CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS A
CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSES NORTH OF THE BORDER. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AND RETURN
BACK TO NORMAL FOR SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1232 AM EST FRIDAY...AREA OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS DRIVEN BY
WARM AIR ADVECTION IS BREAKING OUT ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY AND INTO THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AT THIS TIME WITH REDUCED
VISIBILITIES DOWN TO 1 MILE BEGIN REPORTED AT SEVERAL AUTOMATED
WEATHER STATIONS. LATEST 3KM RUC HAS A VERY GOOD HANDLE ON THE
CURRENT CONDITIONS...AND SHOWS LIGHT SNOW SPREADING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...THEN SHIFTING
NORTHWARD AFTER 12Z AS THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT DOES THE SAME.
THUS...HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. UPSTREAM
OBS SHOW ANYWHERE FROM A TRACE TO 0.01" OF MELTED PRECIP PER HOUR
FROM SNOW...SO THINKING OVER THE NEXT 6-8 HOURS WE`LL LIKELY SEE
ABOUT 1/2 A TENTH OF AN INCH OF LIQUID...ACCUMULATING TO ABOUT
1-2" ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION...A
DUSTING TO AN INCH SOUTH. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS ALREADY
OCCURRED...AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF RISING TEMPS OVERNIGHT
STILL LOOKS GOOD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 341 PM EST THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS
SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SOME LIGHT
SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY
NORTHERN AREAS...AS THE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW LIFTS
NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FRIDAY MORNING WILL
BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...WITH A DUSTING TO AN INCH OR TWO
EXPECTED...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES. PRECIPITATION WILL
BE SPOTTY IN NATURE DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE. AREA OF FAVORABLE SNOW GROWTH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
DOESN`T COINCIDE WITH MOISTURE...SO THERE MAY BE SOME FREEZING
DRIZZLE OR DRIZZLE AS WELL. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
20S IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM TO THE MID 30S SOUTHERN ZONES.
CHANCES FOR SOME INTERMITTENT LIGHT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS NORTH OF THE
BORDER. CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AS COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY WELL
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. EXPECT HIGHS ON SATURDAY TO BE IN THE UPPER
30S AND LOWER 40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EST THURSDAY...VERY QUIET WX WL PREVAIL THRU THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WK...FOLLOWED BY MUCH MORE ACTIVE PATTERN FOR NEXT THURS
INTO NEXT WKND. LARGE SCALE INDICES SHOW THE AO (ARCTIC OSCILLATION) BECMG
NEGATIVE TWD THE MID OF JAN...ALONG WITH A NEAR NEUTRAL NAO (NORTH
ATLANTIC OSCILLATION) ...SUGGESTING A POTENTIAL PATTERN CHANGE IS
COMING. THIS WOULD SUGGEST THE DEVELOPMENT OF ABOVE NORMAL HGHTS
ACRS GREENLAND...WITH POTENTIAL BLW NORMAL HGHTS OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS. AS THIS LARGE SCALE PATTERN CHANGE DEVELOPS...AN ACTIVE WX
PATTERN IS POSSIBLE ACRS THE EASTERN CONUS...INCLUDING OUR FA.
LATEST 12Z GFS ENSEMBLES...ECWMF...AND GFS ALL SHOW THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT MID/UPPER LVL TROF ACRS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS ON WEDS OF NEXT WK...WHILE POTENT CLOSED 7H/5H CIRCULATION
EJECTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST CONUS IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM. STILL SOME
TIMING ISSUES WITH SYSTEM EJECTING FROM THE SW CONUS...BUT THESE
SYSTEMS TEND TO BE STRONGER THAN PROGGED BY MODELS AND ALMOST
NEVER WEAKEN AS QUICKLY AS MODELS PREDICT. THIS SYSTEM WL HAVE
PLENTY OF SUB- TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE GULF/ATLANTIC AS IT
MOVES TWD OUR REGION. HOWEVER...FEEL INTERACTION WITH NORTHERN
STREAM TROF WL BE LIMITED...THEREFORE EXPECTING A MAINLY WARM CORE
SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY. THIS SETUP LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO OUR SYSTEM A
COUPLE WEEKS AGO...WHEN A POTENT MID/UPPER LVL CIRCULATION ACRS
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...CAPTURED SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRES AND
TRACKED IT TO OUR WEST...PLACING OUR CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR.
LATEST TRENDS HAVE BEEN SUPPRESSED FURTHER SOUTH WITH LOW PRES
TRACK AS COOL HIGH PRES DEVELOPS TO OUR NORTH...OFFERING A
POTENTIAL FOR A COLDER/SNOWIER SOLUTION...BUT NO BUYING THIS YET.
WL FCST SFC LOW PRES TRACKING TO OUR WEST...WHICH WL RESULT IN
SNOW CHANGING TO MIX...THEN TO RAIN...AND ENDING AS A PERIOD OF
SNOW...WITH SOME ACCUMULATION ACRS THE MTNS LIKELY. ALSO...GIVEN
THICKNESS FIELDS AND COLD GROUND TEMPS...WOULD ANTICIPATE SOME
MINOR ICE ACCUMULATION EAST OF THE GREENS. OTHERWISE...STILL
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH SYSTEM 6 DAYS OUT...AND CHANGES WL BE
COMING...GIVEN COMPLEX MID/UPPER LVL PATTERN. OVERALL...TEMPS WL
AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL FOR SUNDAY THRU TUES...THEN INCREASE TO ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS FOR WEDS INTO THURS...AS CLOUDS/PRECIP LIMIT THE
DIURNAL RANGE.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...A WARM FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION THIS
MORNING WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION TODAY...WITH CONDITIONS
LOWERING TO IFR IN SNOW. EXPECTING LIGHT SNOW TO BEGIN TO TAPER
OFF ACROSS THE REGION BY 18Z FRIDAY...AS THE WARM FRONT BEGINS TO
LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION. EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION
AFTER 00Z SATURDAY.
OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE COMBINATION OF WEAK
LOW PRESSSURE AND ANOTHER SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE MORE
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ON SATURDAY...ALONG WITH SOME IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY AT SLK/MPV. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRES WITH VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER WARM FRONT APPROACHING
THE REGION ON TUESDAY WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS
ON TUESDAY WITH SOME MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS/LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...WGH/TABER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
1233 AM EST FRI JAN 6 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR A BRIEF TIME
TONIGHT. BY LATER TONIGHT...A WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION. SOME PERIODS OF
LIGHT PRECIPITATION CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS A
CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSES NORTH OF THE BORDER. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AND RETURN
BACK TO NORMAL FOR SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1232 AM EST FRIDAY...AREA OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS DRIVEN BY
WARM AIR ADVECTION IS BREAKING OUT ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY AND INTO THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AT THIS TIME WITH REDUCED
VISIBILITIES DOWN TO 1 MILE BEGIN REPORTED AT SEVERAL AUTOMATED
WEATHER STATIONS. LATEST 3KM RUC HAS A VERY GOOD HANDLE ON THE
CURRENT CONDITIONS...AND SHOWS LIGHT SNOW SPREADING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...THEN SHIFTING
NORTHWARD AFTER 12Z AS THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT DOES THE SAME.
THUS...HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. UPSTREAM
OBS SHOW ANYWHERE FROM A TRACE TO 0.01" OF MELTED PRECIP PER HOUR
FROM SNOW...SO THINKING OVER THE NEXT 6-8 HOURS WE`LL LIKELY SEE
ABOUT 1/2 A TENTH OF AN INCH OF LIQUID...ACCUMULATING TO ABOUT
1-2" ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION...A
DUSTING TO AN INCH SOUTH. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS ALREADY
OCCURRED...AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF RISING TEMPS OVERNIGHT
STILL LOOKS GOOD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 341 PM EST THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS
SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SOME LIGHT
SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY
NORTHERN AREAS...AS THE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW LIFTS
NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FRIDAY MORNING WILL
BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...WITH A DUSTING TO AN INCH OR TWO
EXPECTED...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES. PRECIPITATION WILL
BE SPOTTY IN NATURE DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE. AREA OF FAVORABLE SNOW GROWTH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
DOESN`T COINCIDE WITH MOISTURE...SO THERE MAY BE SOME FREEZING
DRIZZLE OR DRIZZLE AS WELL. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
20S IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM TO THE MID 30S SOUTHERN ZONES.
CHANCES FOR SOME INTERMITTENT LIGHT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS NORTH OF THE
BORDER. CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AS COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY WELL
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. EXPECT HIGHS ON SATURDAY TO BE IN THE UPPER
30S AND LOWER 40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EST THURSDAY...VERY QUIET WX WL PREVAIL THRU THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WK...FOLLOWED BY MUCH MORE ACTIVE PATTERN FOR NEXT THURS
INTO NEXT WKND. LARGE SCALE INDICES SHOW THE AO (ARCTIC OSCILLATION) BECMG
NEGATIVE TWD THE MID OF JAN...ALONG WITH A NEAR NEUTRAL NAO (NORTH
ATLANTIC OSCILLATION) ...SUGGESTING A POTENTIAL PATTERN CHANGE IS
COMING. THIS WOULD SUGGEST THE DEVELOPMENT OF ABOVE NORMAL HGHTS
ACRS GREENLAND...WITH POTENTIAL BLW NORMAL HGHTS OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS. AS THIS LARGE SCALE PATTERN CHANGE DEVELOPS...AN ACTIVE WX
PATTERN IS POSSIBLE ACRS THE EASTERN CONUS...INCLUDING OUR FA.
LATEST 12Z GFS ENSEMBLES...ECWMF...AND GFS ALL SHOW THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT MID/UPPER LVL TROF ACRS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS ON WEDS OF NEXT WK...WHILE POTENT CLOSED 7H/5H CIRCULATION
EJECTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST CONUS IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM. STILL SOME
TIMING ISSUES WITH SYSTEM EJECTING FROM THE SW CONUS...BUT THESE
SYSTEMS TEND TO BE STRONGER THAN PROGGED BY MODELS AND ALMOST
NEVER WEAKEN AS QUICKLY AS MODELS PREDICT. THIS SYSTEM WL HAVE
PLENTY OF SUB- TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE GULF/ATLANTIC AS IT
MOVES TWD OUR REGION. HOWEVER...FEEL INTERACTION WITH NORTHERN
STREAM TROF WL BE LIMITED...THEREFORE EXPECTING A MAINLY WARM CORE
SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY. THIS SETUP LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO OUR SYSTEM A
COUPLE WEEKS AGO...WHEN A POTENT MID/UPPER LVL CIRCULATION ACRS
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...CAPTURED SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRES AND
TRACKED IT TO OUR WEST...PLACING OUR CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR.
LATEST TRENDS HAVE BEEN SUPPRESSED FURTHER SOUTH WITH LOW PRES
TRACK AS COOL HIGH PRES DEVELOPS TO OUR NORTH...OFFERING A
POTENTIAL FOR A COLDER/SNOWIER SOLUTION...BUT NO BUYING THIS YET.
WL FCST SFC LOW PRES TRACKING TO OUR WEST...WHICH WL RESULT IN
SNOW CHANGING TO MIX...THEN TO RAIN...AND ENDING AS A PERIOD OF
SNOW...WITH SOME ACCUMULATION ACRS THE MTNS LIKELY. ALSO...GIVEN
THICKNESS FIELDS AND COLD GROUND TEMPS...WOULD ANTICIPATE SOME
MINOR ICE ACCUMULATION EAST OF THE GREENS. OTHERWISE...STILL
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH SYSTEM 6 DAYS OUT...AND CHANGES WL BE
COMING...GIVEN COMPLEX MID/UPPER LVL PATTERN. OVERALL...TEMPS WL
AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL FOR SUNDAY THRU TUES...THEN INCREASE TO ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS FOR WEDS INTO THURS...AS CLOUDS/PRECIP LIMIT THE
DIURNAL RANGE.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...VFR CEILINGS INITIALLY WILL GIVE WAY TO
MVFR CEILINGS AFTER 06Z AND REMAINING IN THE MVFR CATEGORY THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO
THE REGION. CEILINGS WILL LOWER INTO THE 1000 TO 2000 FOOT RANGE.
LIGHT SNOW WILL ALSO MOVE INTO THE REGION BEGINNING AROUND 06Z AND
ENDING AROUND 15Z WITH VISIBILITIES LOWERING INTO THE MVFR AND IFR
CATEGORIES. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY WITH TIME LATER
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...BUT SPEEDS WILL BE UNDER 15 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE
NORTH OF OUR TAF SITES BY 00Z SATURDAY...HOWEVER COOL/MOIST NORTHEAST FLW
AT MSS...COULD RESULT IN AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE WITH SOME MINOR
ICING POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL AT
MSS FRIDAY AFTN. THE COMBINATION OF WEAK LOW PRES AND ANOTHER SFC
COLD FRNT WL PRODUCE MORE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ON
SATURDAY...ALONG WITH SOME IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY AT
SLK/MPV. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRES WITH VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS/LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...EVENSON/TABER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1142 PM CST THU JAN 5 2012
.AVIATION...
SINCE THE 03Z DISCUSSION...HAVE BECOME LESS CONFIDENT ABOUT FOG
FORMATION TONIGHT...AND LESS CONFIDENT THAT LOW STRATUS WILL FORM.
THE WEAK WARM FRONT HAS BECOME VERY DIFFUSE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
50S NORTH OF THE FRONT AND LOWER 60S TO THE SOUTH. THE FRONT AT
04Z WAS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF KIAH AND ABOUT HALFWAY BETWEEN KCLL
AND KSGR. THE UPPER LOW OVER SOUTH TEXAS WAS HELPING TO DEVELOP
SHOWERS OFF THE TEXAS COASTAL BEND BEYOND 30 MILES OF THE COAST.
THE SHOWERS MAY AFFECT THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS AFTER 09Z.
THE 02Z RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS REFLECT THE 00Z NAM12...WHICH LOOK
SIMILAR TO THE MODELS OF 24 HOURS AGO. THE 00Z GFS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS WERE ALONG THE SAME LINES. THESE FORECAST AN INVERSION
CLOSE TO THE SURFACE AND INDICATED SCATTERED TO BROKEN CONDITIONS
AT AROUND 4000 FEET DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD INTO THE MORNING.
THE BEST TIME PERIOD FOR FOG TO FORM WILL BE AFTER 09Z WITH THE
MOST LIKELY LOCATIONS BEING AT KCXO AND KLBX. INSERTED A SCATTERED
DECK AT 1500 FEET WITH THE HINT AT MVFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL SITES
BEGINNING BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z. IF MVFR CONDITIONS DO FORM...THESE
SHOULD LIFT AFTER 15Z. AT THIS TIME...IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS DO
NOT LOOK TO BE LIKELY.
40
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 919 PM CST THU JAN 5 2012/
UPDATE...
SEE EVENING UPDATE BELOW.
DISCUSSION...
A WEAK BOUNDARY APPEARS TO BE RETREATING NORTH AS LIGHT SOUTH
WINDS HAVE RETURNED AS FAR NORTH AS IAH THIS EVENING. DEW PTS HAVE
BEGUN TO CREEP UPWARD AS WELL. RADAR IS SHOWING PRECIP INCREASING
IN COVERAGE OVER THE GULF...BUT THE TRAJECTORY OF THE PRECIP
SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE RAIN OFFSHORE...OR PERHAPS JUST CLIPPING
THE COAST. TWEAKED MIN TEMP GRIDS TO RAISE THEM JUST A BIT DO TO
CLOUD COVER AND HIGHER DEW PTS. STILL LOOKS LIKE HIGH RAIN CHANCES
FOR SUN NITE/MON AS A STRONG UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE STATE.
PATCHY FOG WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR FOG WILL LIKELY REMAIN SOUTH OF I-10 AND CLOSER TO THE COAST. 43
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 51 72 54 69 52 / 10 10 10 10 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 57 74 58 74 58 / 20 20 10 10 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 60 68 59 71 60 / 20 30 20 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...43
AVIATION/MARINE...40
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
215 AM CST FRI JAN 6 2012
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
215 AM CST FRI JAN 6 2012
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES IN THIS ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURE PATTERN.
CURRENTLY AS OF 08Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED WEAK RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE U.S. AND BRITISH
COLUMBIA...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER MONTANA...THEN NEARLY ZONAL FLOW
FROM THE DAKOTAS EASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND. AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...A 90-110 KT JET WAS PRESENT FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO UPPER
MICHIGAN. THIS JET COMBINED WITH A STREAM OF PACIFIC MOISTURE IS
HELPING TO PRODUCE SCATTERED-BROKEN CIRRUS FROM SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NEBRASKA NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. MOISTURE VERY HARD
TO COME BY BELOW THIS CIRRUS...NOTED BY 10C OR HIGHER DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS FROM THE SURFACE TO 500MB ON 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM
MPX...ABR AND BIS. 850MB TEMPS ON THESE SOUNDINGS RANGED FROM AROUND
10C AT ABR AND MPX...WHILE A COOLER READING OF 7C WAS REPORTED AT
BIS. BIS WAS LOCATED BEHIND A COLD FRONT WHICH CURRENTLY EXTENDS
FROM DES MOINES IOWA INTO NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. 925MB VAD WIND PROFILER
DATA DEPICTS 30-40 KT NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
DESPITE THIS COLD ADVECTION...THE WINDS IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE
CLOUDS AND GENERALLY MILD AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT...HAS HELPED TO
KEEP TEMPERATURES UP IN THE 30S AND INTO THE LOW 40S.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER MONTANA IS FORECAST BY ALL
MODELS TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...THOUGH THE CRUX OF
THE TROUGH LOOKS TO AFFECT UPPER MICHIGAN. AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES
THE AREA TODAY...THE UPPER JET STREAK SEEN AHEAD OF IT WILL SLOWLY
SINK TO THE SOUTHEAST...AND THEREFORE SO WILL THE SCATTERED-BROKEN
CIRRUS. ALONG WITH THE SLOW DECREASE IN CLOUDS FROM THE NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST...THE APPROACH OF THE TROUGH ALONG WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
CURRENT COLD FRONT MEANS COLD ADVECTION TODAY. STILL...THE COLD
ADVECTION IS GRADUAL...NOTED BY 925MB TEMPS WHICH START OFF AT 6-8C
AT 12Z AND ONLY FALL TO 1-4C BY 00Z. SUNSHINE THROUGH THE HIGH
CLOUDS...WINDS TO HELP WITH MIXING...MOSTLY A LACK OF SNOW EXCEPT
NORTH OF I-94...AND A WARM START OFF SHOULD YIELD ANOTHER WELL ABOVE
NORMAL DAY TODAY. MOST AREAS SHOULD AT LEAST SEE HIGHS IN THE 40S
WITH SOME LOCATIONS REACHING INTO THE LOWER 50S. A LITTLE COOLER AIR
COMES IN TONIGHT WITH 925MB TEMPS FALLING TO -2 TO -5C BY 12Z
SATURDAY. SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY ACCOMPANY THIS COOLING AND DROP DOWN
INTO NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...BUT NO LIFT IS PRESENT WITHIN THE
CLOUD LAYER TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION. GENERALLY FOLLOWED A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE FOR LOWS.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT IS PROGGED TO SCOOT OFF TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY...LEAVING
THE AREA IN WEAK BROAD TROUGHING. THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMING THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...IN ADVANCE
OF RIDGING BUILDING UP ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO SOUTHWEST
CANADA. NONE OF THESE FEATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ANY
PRECIPITATION...DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF TOO MUCH DRY AIR. THERE WILL
BE PERIODS OF CLOUDS AFFECTING THE AREA...HOWEVER. THE FIRST IS
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-94...WHERE LOW CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THESE CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL
COOLING LEFT BEHIND FROM TONIGHTS SHORTWAVE TROUGH. ANTICIPATING
THESE CLOUDS TO CLEAR OUT ON SUNDAY AS WARM/DRY ADVECTION SURGES IN
FROM THE PLAINS. THIS SAME ADVECTION ON THE OTHER HAND DOES LOOK
TO PRODUCE SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS...MAINLY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 2/3 OF THE AREA. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR OUT
SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. REGARDING
TEMPERATURES...925MB READINGS ARE PROGGED TO HOLD FAIRLY STEADY
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...BETWEEN -2 AND -6C...THEN SLOWLY START
RISING TO AROUND 0C BY 12Z MONDAY AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMES
THROUGH. THIS MEANS THE WEEKEND WILL BE COOLER...BUT STILL ABOVE
NORMAL. A BLEND OF GUIDANCE WITH A LEAN TOWARDS THE ECMWF SEEMS
APPROPRIATE...SINCE THE ECMWF HAS BEEN DOING WELL IN THIS ABOVE
NORMAL PATTERN.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
215 AM CST FRI JAN 6 2012
06.00Z ECMWF/GFS/CANADIAN AND GFS ENSEMBLES REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH PREVIOUS RUNS AND WITH EACH OTHER ON THE UPCOMING WEATHER
PATTERN FOR NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES FOR THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...BUT IN GENERAL THEY DEPICT A WELL AGREED UPON
PATTERN. MONDAY AND TUESDAY FEATURE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH
AGAIN...IN RESPONSE TO THE BUILDING RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES ON SUNDAY NIGHT BEING FLATTENED AND SENT EASTWARD THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA. 925MB TEMPS RESPOND BY JUMPING FROM THE 0C AT 12Z
MONDAY TO 2-4C AT 00Z TUESDAY...THEN HOVERING AROUND THOSE LEVELS
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST WITH
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO ECMWF PROGGED VALUES. PATTERN CHANGES COME
LATER TUESDAY AS A POTENT TROUGH DIGS DOWN INTO ALBERTA AND
SASKATCHEWAN. THIS TROUGH ALL MODELS HAVE DIGGING DOWN INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BUT AGAIN THE TIMING
VARIES. THE 06.00Z GFS/GFS ENSEMBLES/CANADIAN ALL BRING IT INTO THE
FORECAST AREA LATE WEDNESDAY...WHEREAS THE 05.12Z ECMWF STILL HAS IT
BACK OVER THE DAKOTAS AT THE SAME TIME. FOR NOW HAVE FOLLOWED A
CONSENSUS BLEND UNTIL THE TIMING CAN SORT ITSELF OUT. 850MB TEMPS
PLUMMET WITHIN THE TROUGH...DROPPING TO -12 TO PERHAPS AS COLD AS
-20C UNDER THE CORE OF IT. SO CERTAINLY MORE WINTER LIKE AIR WILL
END UP MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA. PRECIPITATION ON THE OTHER
HAND IS MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN...DUE TO MOST OF THE MOISTURE TRAPPED
WITH A SYSTEM TRACKING ALONG THE GULF COAST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES. THERE IS SOME AGREEMENT ON A BAND OF DEFORMATION AND DPVA
FORCED PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...BUT UNCERTAINTIES ON
TIMING AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE RESULT IN NO HIGHER THAN 20-30 PERCENT
CHANCES AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...
1110 PM CST THU JAN 5 2012
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES LATE TONIGHT...BRINGING SOME HIGH THIN CLOUDS TO THE TAF
SITES...BUT NO PCPN WORRIES. A WEAK RIPPLE IN THE SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENT FIELD WAS ALSO APPROACHING...BUT MOST WINDS WERE ALREADY
WESTERLY. HOWEVER...MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY LOCATIONS
DECOUPLED...AND THUS SOME VARIABLE BUT MOSTLY LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
AT KLSE. EXPECT THESE WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND 12Z...ALTHOUGH A
FEW HOURS LONGER INTO THE MORNING IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. TRENDS
WILL BE MONITORED. WINDS WILL MIX A BIT DEEPER ON FRIDAY...LENDING A
BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SOME AFTERNOON GUSTINESS. OVERALL...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.
A POINT OF POTENTIAL INTEREST IS A BANK OF LOW/MVFR CLOUDS THE
MODELS WANT TO SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN WI FRI NIGHT. TRENDS
WOULD KEEP THIS NORTH OF THE TAFS SITES...AND WILL KEEP THEM THIS
WAY FOR NOW. BEARS WATCHING.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
215 AM CST FRI JAN 6 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION.....RIECK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
427 AM MST FRI JAN 6 2012
.SHORT TERM...
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
UPPER TROF CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS NRN U.S. ROCKIES WHICH WILL BE
SENDING A DRY COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. MSAS CURRENTLY SHOWING 2-3MB 3 HR
PRESSURE RISES WORKING SOUTHWARD INTO FAR NE CO AS OF 09Z. HRRR AND
NAM12 DROP FRONT SOUTH OF THE PALMER DIVIDE SHORTLY AFTER 12Z...THEN
THROUGH MOST OF THE SE PLAINS BY 16Z. INITIALLY MIXING BEHIND THE
FRONT SHOULD HELP BOOST MAX TEMPS EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH TEMPS
THEN HOLDING STEADY OR FALLING SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT COULD BRIEFLY BECOME GUSTY AROUND 15 TO 25
MPH THROUGH THE MORNING...THOUGH SHOULD START TO DIMINISH IN THE
AFTERNOON AS SFC HIGH SETTLES IN AND LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS OUT OF
THE NORTHEAST TO EAST BY EARLY EVENING. WILL ALSO SEE SOME WAVE
CLOUDINESS ACROSS NRN/EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FCST AREA THOUGH THE
EARLY TO MID PORTION OF THE DAY. HAVE INCREASED SKY COVER GRIDS
ACCORDINGLY. AS FOR HIGHS...COOLING TODAY SHOULD DROP MAXES AROUND
10-20 DEGREES OUT EAST...AND AROUND 10 DEGREES OUT WEST. EXCEPTION
TO THIS WILL BE OVER THE SNOW PACK ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS WHERE
MAX TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR TO A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY.
TONIGHT...ATTENTION TURNS TOWARDS THE NEXT PACIFIC TROF WHICH WILL
BE ENTERING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AFTER 00Z AND INTO THE NRN GREAT
BASIN BY 12Z SAT. GFS AND ECMWF START TO SPREAD SNOW INTO THE
CENTRAL MTS AFTER 06-09Z. HOWEVER NAM KEEPS FCST DRY. WILL START TO
SEE MORE HIGH CLOUDINESS SPREAD IN OVERNIGHT...AND SOUNDINGS MOISTEN
DOWN TO H6 ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTS TOWARDS 12Z. THINK THE GFS AND
ECMWF MAY BE STARTING UP PCPN A LITTLE TOO QUICKLY SO WILL KEEP ANY
POPS AT OR BELOW 5 PERCENT. THIS MAY NEED TO BE RE-EVALUATED BASED
ON ANY FURTHER CHANGES IN THE MODEL TRENDS. -KT
.LONG TERM...
(SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
CONTINUED TO FOLLOW THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED WITH THE
NAM BEING THE OUTLIER. AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
DROP SOUTH OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST BEFORE TRACKING SOUTHEAST INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS
WILL BRING A ROUND OF SNOW TO MOST OF THE REGION BEGINNING
SATURDAY AND CLEARING THE REGION ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT SNOW
TO DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS ON
SATURDAY AND SPREAD EAST INTO THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PALMER
DIVIDE SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS LESS CERTAIN ON THE PLAINS WITH
LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE PLAINS BEHIND A COLD
FRONT. THE AMOUNT OF SNOW OVER THE PLAINS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE
DEGREE OF UPSLOPE FLOW WHICH AT THIS POINT DOES NOT LOOK OVERLY
FANTASTIC. AS FAR AS SNOWFALL TOTALS...EXPECT TO SEE THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND PIKES PEAK WHERE GENERALLY
4 TO 8 INCHES IS POSSIBLE. OVER THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
RANGE...AMOUNTS WILL VARY WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS...3 TO 5 INCHES
OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE RANGE. EXPECT AMOUNTS OF ONLY AN
INCH OR TWO FOR MOST OF THE PLAINS. OF NOTE...THE NAM HAS A MORE
NORTHERLY TRACK TO THE STORM SYSTEM WITH A HEAVY BAND OF SNOW
DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHERN HALF OF THE PLAINS AND HEAVY SNOW FOR
THE PALMER DIVIDE. THESE AREAS ACCORDING TO THE NAM WOULD HAVE
MUCH HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...BUT GIVEN THE NAM BEING AN OUTLIER
WILL THROW OUT THE SOLUTION FOR NOW.
BEYOND SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE ROCKIES MONDAY
AND TUESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN
CONUS. EXPECT A WARMING TREND MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 40S...EXCEPT FOR THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE ARKANSAS
RIVER VALLEY WHERE HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 30S.
THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH OUT OF CENTRAL
CANADA AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MODELS DIFFER ON HOW FAR
SOUTH THE TROUGH DIGS WITH THE ECMWF BEING THE FURTHEST SOUTH. ONE
THING IS CERTAIN...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE
FRONT OVER THE PLAINS...WITH THE GFS HINTING AT VERY STRONG WINDS
NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE MUCH COOLER WITH
HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN THE 30S. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE
THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. THE GFS WITH ITS FURTHER NORTH
SOLUTION BRINGS THE FRONT THROUGH DRY...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS MORE
UPSLOPE AND DYNAMICS WITH WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOWFALL FOR LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW INTRODUCED LOW POPS FOR MUCH
OF THE REGION BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS POINT FOR ANY TO OCCUR.
EXPECT DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH THE REGION
UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. MOZLEY
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT TAF SITES...WITH NORTH WINDS 10-15KTS
AFFECTING KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES STARTING AROUND 12-13Z AT KCOS AND
14-15Z AT KPUB. KCOS COULD SEE SOME BRIEF GUSTS TO 25 KTS DURING
THE MORNING. OTHERWISE...SOME HIGH CIRRUS/AC EXPECTED AT KCOS AND
KPUB THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. KALS WILL SEE LIGHT WINDS
THROUGH THE DAY. -KT
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 AM SATURDAY TO 11 AM MST SUNDAY
FOR COZ058-060.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM SATURDAY TO 11 AM MST SUNDAY
FOR COZ082.
&&
$$
31/88
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
725 AM EST FRI JAN 6 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
OTHER THAN A FEW BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING...DRY WEATHER
WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND SATURDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL BRING A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. MILDER WEATHER WILL RETURN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH A
STORM LIKELY AFFECTING THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 9 AM THIS MORNING/...
7AM UPDATE...
WARM FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FA
THIS MORNING BASED ON CURRENT DWPT OBS AND SATELLITE. OVERRUNNING
-SHSN HAS ALSO MOSTLY MOVED N AND E OF THE REGION. GIVEN THIS
EXPECTING SKIES TO GRADUALLY CLEAR THIS MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPS GRADUALLY INCREASE AS WELL BEHIND THE
FRONT...EXPECTING MID 40S S OF THE MASS PIKE. UPDATES MADE TO
POPS/SKY AND TEMPS/DWPTS. HRRR HANDLED TIMING OF PRECIP WELL THE
LAST FEW HOURS...AND 06/06Z MAV WAS USED AS BASIS FOR TEMPS/DWPTS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
DOPPLER RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS WERE SHOWING THAT SCATTERED
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WERE OVER SPREADING OUR REGION IN
ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND ANY
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND SPOTTY. HOWEVER...A
COATING OF SNOW IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS. THIS
COULD RESULT IN SOME SLIPPERY SPOTS FOR THE EARLY MORNING RUSH
HOUR.
ANY SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD BE VERY SHORT LIVED AND EXPECT
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION TO MOVE TO THE NORTH OF OUR COUNTY WARNING
AREA BY MID MORNING AT THE LATEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /9 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
MID MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON...
THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL RAPIDLY WARM FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST ONCE THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. WHILE THE
WARM ADVECTION PATTERN WILL LIKELY RESULT IN CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS
INTO MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON...A FEW BREAKS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AT
TIMES SOUTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE. DEPENDING ON HOW MANY BREAKS
DEVELOP IN THE CLOUDS...HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER WELL UP
INTO THE 40S TO NEAR 50 SOUTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE.
MEANWHILE...ACROSS SOUTHERN NH/NORTHERN MA THE WARM FRONT WILL BE
SLOW TO MOVE INTO THAT REGION AND THERE AND CLOUDS WILL LIKELY HANG
TOUGH. THIS SHOULD HOLD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S AND
LOWER 40S.
TONIGHT...
A DRY AND PLEASANT NIGHT FOR EARLY JANUARY STANDARDS IS ON TAP FOR
THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONLY FALL INTO THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 20S ACROSS THE INTERIOR...WITH READINGS LIKELY STAYING ABOVE
FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE COASTAL PLAIN AS SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL NOT
COMPLETELY DECOUPLE IN THIS REGION. IN FACT...WEST TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW OVER THE OCEAN SHOULD KEEP NANTUCKET FROM DROPPING BELOW 40!
SATURDAY...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WILL RESULT IN AN UNSEASONABLY MILD DAY ACROSS OUR REGION.
WITH DECENT MIXING ON WESTERLY FLOW AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB WELL INTO THE 40S TO POSSIBLY EVEN
SOME LOWER 50S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLAIN.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* MORE SEASONABLE SUN AND MON
* MILDER TEMPERATURES RETURN TUE AND WED WITH DRY WX CONTINUING
* MAINLY RAIN EVENT WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...BUT LOW PROB FOR
A PERIOD OF ICE OR SNOW IN THE DISTANT INTERIOR
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
06/00Z GUIDANCE SUITE IS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE BROAD
SCALE PATTERN THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK...WITH MOSTLY SUBTLE
DIFFERENCES IN SFC FEATURES. BASE OF BROAD ERN CANADIAN TROF RESTS
GENERALLY JUST W OF NEW ENGLAND...WHILE WRN EXTENT OF ATLANTIC
RIDGING KEEPS DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION.
THEREFORE...EVEN AS SHORTWAVES PUSH THROUGH THE FAST FLOW AT THE
BASE OF THE TROF...THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SENSIBLE WX SAVE
FOR TEMPS DIFFERENCES AS WEAK COLD FRONTS CROSS THE AREA THROUGH
TUE. THEREFORE...WILL REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH FCST SUGGESTING
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS BUT SOME SLIGHT COOLING AS THE TROF DIGS
INTO THE COMING WORK WEEK. SENSIBLE WX MID AND LATE THIS COMING
WEEK WILL BE DEFINED BY A PROGGED PATTERN SHIFT...WHICH MODELS
CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH. THE KEY IS THE GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF A
NEAR REX TYPE BLOCK WITH CUTOFF LOW OVER THE SW AND A BUILDING
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. WHILE THE ERN CANADIAN TROF AND
CUTOFF SHOW SOME PHASING EARLY IN THE WEEK...THE NRN TROF EJECTS E
AHEAD...ALLOWING THE CUTOFF AND RIDGE TO INTERACT AND MOVE SLOWLY
E. THERE CONTINUE TO BE SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
OPNL GFS/ECMWF AND SEVERAL OF THEIR ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...HOWEVER IT
APPEARS THAT THE CUTOFF WILL DRY A STRONG SFC LOW SOMEWHERE OVER
NEW ENGLAND MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK WITH STRONG WARM RIDGING
BUILDING IN ADVANCE. THERE ARE STILL MANY DETAILS TO NAIL DOWN
WITH THIS POTENTIALLY HIGH IMPACT FEATURE...BUT THE WAVE THAT
FORMS THE CUTOFF WILL ONLY BEGIN TO BE SAMPLED BY LAND BASED
OBSERVATIONS IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...SO THERE MAY BE BETTER SOLN
CONVERGENCE OVER THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THE AGREEMENT EARLY IN THE
LONG TERM...AND THE DISAGREEMENT LATE...WILL STICK TO THE OPNL GFS
AND ECMWF BLEND AS A BASIS FOR THE LONG TERM.
DETAILS...
SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...
CLIPPER SYSTEM OVER NRN NEW ENGLAND CONTINUES TO MOVE E INTO THE
MARITIMES...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT OVER SNE DURING THE DAY SUN. THE
COMBINATION OF AN ALREADY DRY AIRMASS BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS AND
SOME WEAK SUBSIDENCE IN CAA AHEAD OF THE FRONT SUGGEST THAT THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH LITTLE PRECIPITATION.
H92 TEMPS GRADUALLY DECREASE TO AROUND -4C TO -5C...DESPITE SOME
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER...MIXING WILL LIKELY BE ALLOWED TO REACH THIS
LEVEL. TEMPS LOOK TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DESPITE THE COOLER
FROPA.
MON THRU WED...
STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE W...CRESTING OVER THE REGION
LATE MON NIGHT. THE DRY AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE AND BEST FORCING
WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE DURING THE DAY TUE REMAINS WELL TO THE
N...SO GENERALLY DRY WX PERSISTS. TEMPS INITIALLY DROP TO NEAR OR
JUST BELOW NORMAL INTO THE DAY MON...BEFORE RETURN FLOW /AS RIDGE
CRESTS SHIFTS E OF THE REGION/ ALLOWS SLIGHT WAA AND HEIGHT
RISES. 1000-500 THICKNESS VALUES REACH THE 540S BY WED...SO ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPS EXPECTED BY MID WEEK.
THU AND FRI...
WARM RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE ERN CONUS AS CUTOFF LOW
GRADUALLY OPENS AND EJECTS TO THE NE. THIS CUTOFF WILL ALLOW A
STRONG SFC LOW TO AFFECT SNE THU INTO FRI. GIVEN THAT THERE ARE
STILL SOME TEMPORAL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS...THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES IN THE P-TYPE IN THIS STORM. WHILE COLUMN SUGGESTS A
MOSTLY RAIN EVENT. SOME COOL LLVL AIR BOTH IN ADVANCE OF THE STORM
AND IN ITS WAKE SUGGEST A MIX OF SOME ICE...ESPECIALLY ON THE
/CURRENTLY COOLER/ GFS.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT
MODERATE...30 PERCENT TO 60 PERCENT
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT
TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR AFTER SNOW SHOWERS CLEAR IN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. REMAINING MVFR CONDITIONS OVER OUTER CAPE
TERMINALS AT THIS TIME. CIGS GRADUALLY LIFT TO A MID DECK THEN
BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR REMAINS DOMINANT
CATEGORY. S WINDS 5 TO 10 KT TODAY...10 TO 20 OVER ACK/HYA/FMH.
WINDS SHIFT TO SW SATURDAY.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND
TONIGHT. S WINDS 5 TO 10 KT TODAY...SHIFTING TO SW TOMORROW.
OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING OVER THE REGION.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY. BEHIND THE WARM
FRONT...EXPECT SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS. SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD TO BETWEEN 4 AND 7
FEET ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS WITH A GOOD SOUTHWEST FETCH.
THEREFORE...SCA WILL BE IN EFFECT LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT...
WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST TO 25 KNOTS AT TIMES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS. IN ADDITION...SEAS WILL REMAIN AT OR
ABOVE 5 FEET IN THIS REGION. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE SCA
HEADLINES FOR OUR SOUTHERN WATERS.
SATURDAY...
WESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND SOUTHERN CANADA. MARGINAL 25 KNOT GUSTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS. FOR NOW HAVE JUST
EXTENDED SCA FOR THE SOUTHERN OUTER-WATERS SINCE SEAS WILL BE AT OR
ABOVE 5 FEET. LATER SHIFTS MAY HAVE TO EXPAND THE SCA HEADLINES A
BIT FURTHER NORTH...BUT IT APPEARS MARGINAL AT THIS POINT.
OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...
WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KT ESPECIALLY SAT NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE WATERS. ELEVATED ABOVE SCA THRESHOLDS
INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE DAY SUN. CONDITIONS DIMINISH BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS DURING THE DAY SUN.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...
WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA. W/NW WINDS MON
BECOMING SW MON NIGHT AND TUE.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
THE KBOX 88D IS OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL JAN 15TH DUE TO A
HARDWARE UPGRADE.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ232>235-
237.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ231-
236.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK/DOODY
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...DOODY
MARINE...FRANK/DOODY
EQUIPMENT...STAFF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
937 AM CST FRI JAN 6 2012
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 936 AM CST FRI JAN 6 2012
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY INDICATED ON SURFACE ANALYSIS ROUGHLY ALONG A
KANSAS CITY TO GREEN BAY LINE...WITH 12Z MODELS SHOWING AN EARLY
TO MID AFTERNOON PASSAGE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS.
WITH JUST SOME CIRRUS WITH IT...WILL ONCE AGAIN GET GOOD MIXING
FROM AROUND 900 MB AND TEMPERATURES PUSHING THE 60 DEGREE MARK
OVER MOST OF THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA. HAVE SENT SOME UPDATED
GRIDS TO REFINE HOURLY TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT TRENDS...BUT
EARLIER FORECAST LOOKS GOOD OVERALL AND NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE
WORDED FORECASTS.
GEELHART
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 539 AM CST FRI JAN 6 2012
QUIET/VFR AVIATION WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 12Z TAF
VALID TIME. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE CENTRAL ILLINOIS
TERMINALS LATER TODAY...PROVIDING LITTLE MORE THAN A WIND SHIFT.
SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL VFR CIGS ARE LIKELY FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER
FROPA.
BAK
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 325 AM CST FRI JAN 6 2012
ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY MILD DAY EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SE
IL WITH TEMPERATURES MORE LIKE LATE MARCH INSTEAD OF EARLY
JANUARY. WILL CONTINUE TO SIDE WARMER THAN GUIDANCE TEMPS ESPECIALLY
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS AS GUIDANCE AS BEEN MUCH TOO COOL FOR
HIGHS DURING THE PAST FEW DAYS. QUIET WEATHER STILL EXPECTED
THROUGH TUE ALONG WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. 00Z MODELS STILL
DIFFER WITH HANDLING OF CUTOFF LOW MOVING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
STATES DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. GFS AND GEM MODELS
STILL APPEAR TO FAST AND WILL LEAN TOWARD THE SLOWER ECMWF MODEL.
FORECAST CONCERN IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND TYPE WED AND WED
NIGHT.
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY
PREDAWN SURFACE MAP SHOWS ELONGATED 994 MB LOW PRESSURE OVER SW
ONTARIO NORTH OF MN WITH A COLD FRONT OVER NW PARTS OF WI AND IA.
1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO KEEPING MOISTURE
LOCKED NEAR THE GULF COAST. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVER CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN IL EARLY THIS MORNING WITH CIRRUS CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN
IL FROM I-80 NORTH. MILD TEMPS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S
EXCEPT COOLER 34F AT PEORIA AND 48F AT JACKSONVILLE AND 50F AT
PITTSFIELD. DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE LOWER 30S WITH SSW WINDS 5 TO 15
MPH. NEARLY ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE COUNTRY.
MODELS BRING THE WEAK COLD FRONT SE THROUGH THE IL RIVER VALLEY
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNSET AND THROUGH SE IL THIS EVENING.
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED TODAY WITH JUST INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS
WHILE COLD AIR ADVECTION LAGS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. WILL LEAN
TOWARD THE WARMER HRRR MODEL FOR HIGHS IN THE MID 50S FROM THE IL
RIVER NW AND LOWER 60S FROM SPRINGFIELD TO ROBINSON SOUTH. THIS IS
STILL SHY OF RECORD HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70F. COOLER
LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 30S WHICH IS ACTUALLY CLOSE TO
NORMAL HIGHS FOR EARLY JANUARY OVER CENTRAL IL.
MODELS HAVE TRENDED WEAKER WITH UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST THIS WEEKEND WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW STILL OVER CENTRAL IL.
THIS COMBINED WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE SAT WILL NUDGE HIGHS
UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S WITH 50F AT LAWRENCEVILLE. MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING
INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND CENTRAL PLAINS. A BIT COOLER HIGHS IN
THE MID 40S SUNDAY DUE TO MORE CLOUDS. THESE CLOUDS TO DECREASE
FROM NW TO SE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MON MORNING AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLES INTO CENTRAL IL WHILE UPPER LEVEL TROF
BEGINS TO PULL AWAY FROM IL AS UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE AGAIN.
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S MON AND UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S TUE
WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
CONTINUED TO LEAN ON THE SLOWER ECMWF MODEL WITH HANDLING OF
CUTOFF LOW EJECTING FROM THE SW STATES DURING MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
REACHING THE LOWER MS VALLEY TUE NIGHT AND OVER THE TN VALLEY WED.
THIS MODEL HAS TRENDED FURTHER SE WITH QPF OVER SE IL WED WHILE
GEM IS DRY OVER IL. MEANWHILE GFS MODEL WHICH WAS DRY YESTERDAY
NOW IS THE WETTER MODEL WITH SPREADING QPF ACROSS CENTRAL IL
DURING WED. WITH ALL THESE DIFFERENCES WILL LEAVE THE ALLBLEND
POPS INTACT WITH SMALL CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN OVERNIGHT TUE NIGHT
OVER SE IL AND 20-40% CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN WED WITH SLIGHT CHANCES
NW OVER THE IL RIVER VALLEY WHILE 40% IN SE IL. MEANWHILE A STRONG
NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL TROF/LOW TO DIG SOUTH INTO THE MIDWEST
WED AND WED NIGHT PUSHING THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES WED NIGHT. BRUNT OF PRECIPITATION TO SHIFT EAST OF
IL WED NIGHT AND THU AS COLDER AIR USHERS INTO IL. THIS TO CHANGE
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS DURING WED NIGHT AND A
FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLY LINGERING THU ESPECIALLY IN
EASTERN IL. TEMPS FINALLY COOL BACK TO NORMAL THU AND THEN DRY AND
SEASONABLY COLD NEXT FRI.
HUETTL
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
539 AM CST FRI JAN 6 2012
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 325 AM CST FRI JAN 6 2012
ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY MILD DAY EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SE
IL WITH TEMPERATURES MORE LIKE LATE MARCH INSTEAD OF EARLY
JANUARY. WILL CONTINUE TO SIDE WARMER THAN GUIDANCE TEMPS ESPECIALLY
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS AS GUIDANCE AS BEEN MUCH TOO COOL FOR
HIGHS DURING THE PAST FEW DAYS. QUIET WEATHER STILL EXPECTED
THROUGH TUE ALONG WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. 00Z MODELS STILL
DIFFER WITH HANDLING OF CUTOFF LOW MOVING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
STATES DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. GFS AND GEM MODELS
STILL APPEAR TO FAST AND WILL LEAN TOWARD THE SLOWER ECMWF MODEL.
FORECAST CONCERN IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND TYPE WED AND WED
NIGHT.
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY
PREDAWN SURFACE MAP SHOWS ELONGATED 994 MB LOW PRESSURE OVER SW
ONTARIO NORTH OF MN WITH A COLD FRONT OVER NW PARTS OF WI AND IA.
1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO KEEPING MOISTURE
LOCKED NEAR THE GULF COAST. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVER CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN IL EARLY THIS MORNING WITH CIRRUS CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN
IL FROM I-80 NORTH. MILD TEMPS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S
EXCEPT COOLER 34F AT PEORIA AND 48F AT JACKSONVILLE AND 50F AT
PITTSFIELD. DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE LOWER 30S WITH SSW WINDS 5 TO 15
MPH. NEARLY ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE COUNTRY.
MODELS BRING THE WEAK COLD FRONT SE THROUGH THE IL RIVER VALLEY
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNSET AND THROUGH SE IL THIS EVENING.
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED TODAY WITH JUST INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS
WHILE COLD AIR ADVECTION LAGS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. WILL LEAN
TOWARD THE WARMER HRRR MODEL FOR HIGHS IN THE MID 50S FROM THE IL
RIVER NW AND LOWER 60S FROM SPRINGFIELD TO ROBINSON SOUTH. THIS IS
STILL SHY OF RECORD HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70F. COOLER
LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 30S WHICH IS ACTUALLY CLOSE TO
NORMAL HIGHS FOR EARLY JANUARY OVER CENTRAL IL.
MODELS HAVE TRENDED WEAKER WITH UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST THIS WEEKEND WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW STILL OVER CENTRAL IL.
THIS COMBINED WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE SAT WILL NUDGE HIGHS
UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S WITH 50F AT LAWRENCEVILLE. MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING
INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND CENTRAL PLAINS. A BIT COOLER HIGHS IN
THE MID 40S SUNDAY DUE TO MORE CLOUDS. THESE CLOUDS TO DECREASE
FROM NW TO SE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MON MORNING AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLES INTO CENTRAL IL WHILE UPPER LEVEL TROF
BEGINS TO PULL AWAY FROM IL AS UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE AGAIN.
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S MON AND UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S TUE
WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
CONTINUED TO LEAN ON THE SLOWER ECMWF MODEL WITH HANDLING OF
CUTOFF LOW EJECTING FROM THE SW STATES DURING MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
REACHING THE LOWER MS VALLEY TUE NIGHT AND OVER THE TN VALLEY WED.
THIS MODEL HAS TRENDED FURTHER SE WITH QPF OVER SE IL WED WHILE
GEM IS DRY OVER IL. MEANWHILE GFS MODEL WHICH WAS DRY YESTERDAY
NOW IS THE WETTER MODEL WITH SPREADING QPF ACROSS CENTRAL IL
DURING WED. WITH ALL THESE DIFFERENCES WILL LEAVE THE ALLBLEND
POPS INTACT WITH SMALL CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN OVERNIGHT TUE NIGHT
OVER SE IL AND 20-40% CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN WED WITH SLIGHT CHANCES
NW OVER THE IL RIVER VALLEY WHILE 40% IN SE IL. MEANWHILE A STRONG
NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL TROF/LOW TO DIG SOUTH INTO THE MIDWEST
WED AND WED NIGHT PUSHING THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES WED NIGHT. BRUNT OF PRECIPITATION TO SHIFT EAST OF
IL WED NIGHT AND THU AS COLDER AIR USHERS INTO IL. THIS TO CHANGE
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS DURING WED NIGHT AND A
FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLY LINGERING THU ESPECIALLY IN
EASTERN IL. TEMPS FINALLY COOL BACK TO NORMAL THU AND THEN DRY AND
SEASONABLY COLD NEXT FRI.
HUETTL
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 539 AM CST FRI JAN 6 2012
QUIET/VFR AVIATION WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 12Z TAF
VALID TIME. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE CENTRAL ILLINOIS
TERMINALS LATER TODAY...PROVIDING LITTLE MORE THAN A WIND SHIFT.
SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL VFR CIGS ARE LIKELY FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER
FROPA.
BAK
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
522 AM CST FRI JAN 6 2012
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KLNK...KOFK.
COLD FRONT MOVING INTO EXTREME SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AT 11Z
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING BY 18Z WITH GUSTS TO 25KT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. WINDS DIMINISH BY 00Z. VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM CST FRI JAN 6 2012/
DISCUSSION /TODAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY/...
GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER THROUGHOUT WITH COLDER AIR COMING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
THE LATEST WV IMAGERY/400MB RUC HEIGHTS/LATEST METARS SHOWS A
SURFACE TROUGH HAS PASSED THROUGH THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. THE
ONLY NOTICEABLE AFFECT HAS BEEN AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN MILD. BEHIND THE FRONT THE
AIRMASS IS NOTABLY COOLER WHEN COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...THOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT SIGNIFICANTLY COOL MUCH UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. MOST AREAS SHOULD REACH THE LOW 50S TODAY...STILL 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...DESPITE THE ADVANCE OF COLDER AIR ALOFT.
POST FRONTAL WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN IN CHECK WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 25 MPH AT BEST. SO OVERALL STILL A
PRETTY NICE DAY FOR WINTER. WE DO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH SITUATED OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE KEEPS THE BETTER MOISTURE ALONG WITH QG FORCING SOUTH OF
THE PLATTE RIVER IN THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY
WARNING AREA. WE WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO SEE MUCH OF ANY
ACCUMULATIONS FROM THESE SNOW SHOWERS AS THE BEST FORCING IS WELL
OFF TO OUR WEST. THIS FEATURE SHIFTS SOUTH AND EAST THROUGHOUT THE
DAY ON SUNDAY. BEHIND IT THE WEATHER LOOKS QUIET AND DRY. BY
WEDNESDAY A MORE WINTERTIME AIRMASS WILL DIVE INTO THE PLAINS FROM
CANADA. 850MB AIRMASS TEMPERATURES OF -10 TO -13C WILL SUPPORT
HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS AND LOW 20S ALLOWING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO
DROP BELOW NORMAL FOR A CHANGE.
CLIMATE...
HERE IS A SUMMARY OF THE RECORDS BROKEN YESTERDAY.
AT 354 PM CST THE TEMPERATURE REACHED 66 DEGREES AT OMAHA EPPLEY
AIRFIELD. THIS BROKE THE OLD RECORD HIGH OF 62 DEGREES WHICH WAS SET
IN 1956.
AT 346 PM CST THE TEMPERATURE REACHED 68 DEGREES AT THE LINCOLN
AIRPORT. THIS BROKE THE PREVIOUS RECORD HIGH OF 61 DEGREES WHICH WAS
SET IN 1956.
AT 351 PM CST...THE TEMPERATURE REACHED 70 DEGREES AT THE NORFOLK
AIRPORT. THIS BROKE THE PREVIOUS RECORD HIGH OF 55 DEGREES WHICH WAS
SET IN 1956.
AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KLNK...KOFK
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT...
SWITCHING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST. WINDS SHOULD MAINLY BE LESS
THAN 10 KNOTS THROUGH MID MORNING FRIDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
BE INCREASING BY ABOUT MID DAY FRIDAY AND COULD BE A BIT GUSTY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS...WITH ANY CLOUDS GENERALLY ABOVE 8000 FEET.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
FOBERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
416 AM CST FRI JAN 6 2012
.DISCUSSION /TODAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY/...
GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER THROUGHOUT WITH COLDER AIR COMING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
THE LATEST WV IMAGERY/400MB RUC HEIGHTS/LATEST METARS SHOWS A
SURFACE TROUGH HAS PASSED THROUGH THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. THE
ONLY NOTICEABLE AFFECT HAS BEEN AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN MILD. BEHIND THE FRONT THE
AIRMASS IS NOTABLY COOLER WHEN COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...THOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT SIGNIFICANTLY COOL MUCH UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. MOST AREAS SHOULD REACH THE LOW 50S TODAY...STILL 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...DESPITE THE ADVANCE OF COLDER AIR ALOFT.
POST FRONTAL WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN IN CHECK WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 25 MPH AT BEST. SO OVERALL STILL A
PRETTY NICE DAY FOR WINTER. WE DO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH SITUATED OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE KEEPS THE BETTER MOISTURE ALONG WITH QG FORCING SOUTH OF
THE PLATTE RIVER IN THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY
WARNING AREA. WE WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO SEE MUCH OF ANY
ACCUMULATIONS FROM THESE SNOW SHOWERS AS THE BEST FORCING IS WELL
OFF TO OUR WEST. THIS FEATURE SHIFTS SOUTH AND EAST THROUGHOUT THE
DAY ON SUNDAY. BEHIND IT THE WEATHER LOOKS QUIET AND DRY. BY
WEDNESDAY A MORE WINTERTIME AIRMASS WILL DIVE INTO THE PLAINS FROM
CANADA. 850MB AIRMASS TEMPERATURES OF -10 TO -13C WILL SUPPORT
HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS AND LOW 20S ALLOWING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO
DROP BELOW NORMAL FOR A CHANGE.
&&
.CLIMATE...
HERE IS A SUMMARY OF THE RECORDS BROKEN YESTERDAY.
AT 354 PM CST THE TEMPERATURE REACHED 66 DEGREES AT OMAHA EPPLEY
AIRFIELD. THIS BROKE THE OLD RECORD HIGH OF 62 DEGREES WHICH WAS SET
IN 1956.
AT 346 PM CST THE TEMPERATURE REACHED 68 DEGREES AT THE LINCOLN
AIRPORT. THIS BROKE THE PREVIOUS RECORD HIGH OF 61 DEGREES WHICH WAS
SET IN 1956.
AT 351 PM CST...THE TEMPERATURE REACHED 70 DEGREES AT THE NORFOLK
AIRPORT. THIS BROKE THE PREVIOUS RECORD HIGH OF 55 DEGREES WHICH WAS
SET IN 1956.
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KLNK...KOFK
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT...
SWITCHING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST. WINDS SHOULD MAINLY BE LESS
THAN 10 KNOTS THROUGH MID MORNING FRIDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
BE INCREASING BY ABOUT MID DAY FRIDAY AND COULD BE A BIT GUSTY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS...WITH ANY CLOUDS GENERALLY ABOVE 8000 FEET.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/CLIMATE...PEARSON
AVIATION...MILLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ABERDEEN SD
606 AM CST FRI JAN 6 2012
.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY
THE FORECAST CHALLENGE IS TEMPERATURE.
CURRENTLY...LOW LEVEL CAA IS OCCURRING. 925HPA TEMPS HAVE FALLEN 5C
TO 10C DEGREES OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. TEMPERATURES ARE STEADY OR
SLOWLY FALLING MAINLY THROUGH THE 30S AMID A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY.
0.5KM WIND SPEEDS /PER RUC MODEL/ ARE 25 TO 40 KNOTS EARLY THIS
MORNING.
LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE CONTINUING TO COOL TODAY DOWN TO A
RANGE OF GENERALLY 0C TO +3C...WHICH IS ROUGHLY A 10C TO 15C DROP
IN 925HPA TEMPERATURES IN 24 HOURS. DIFFERENT FROM PREVIOUS DAYS
WHEN 0.5KM WIND SPEEDS WERE BETWEEN 25 AND 40 KNOTS...WIND SPEEDS
THAT STRONG TODAY WILL BE MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE MUCH MORE
EFFICIENTLY WHILE LOW LEVEL CAA IS ONGOING. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15
TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS IS EXPECTED. HEADING INTO SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...-2C TO +4C AIR AT 925HPA IS PROGGED TO RESIDE OVER THE
CWA. SO...BASICALLY LOOKING AT SIMILAR TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT
THREE DAYS...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S THROUGH THE MID 40S.
THE DRY FORECAST UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT ALSO PERSISTS THROUGH
SUNDAY...EVEN THOUGH A FEW SUBTLE S/W TROFS APPEAR TO WORK ACROSS
THE REGION.
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
THE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT DURING THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...WITH JUST SOME DIFFERENCES CONCERNING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT. LOOKING AT ANOTHER DECENT WARM UP EARLY IN
THE PERIOD AS THE REGION WILL BE UNDER UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW
AND ON THE WAA SIDE OF A SURFACE TROUGH. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
40S LOOK TO BE COMMON BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE SURFACE
TROUGH/FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING AS AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE SLIDES FROM CENTRAL CANADA TO THE GREAT LAKES BY
THURSDAY MORNING. THE BEST ENERGY LOOKS TO AFFECT THE CWA TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. MODEL TIME SECTIONS SHOW PRETTY GOOD
LIFT...BUT NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF LOWER TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE.
THE GFS IS THE LEAST AGGRESSIVE MODEL WITH THE PRECIPITATION...WHILE
THE ECMWF INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR AN INCH OR SO OF
ACCUMULATION. TOO MANY DIFFERENCES RIGHT NOW...SO WILL JUST STICK
WITH THE ALLBLEND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES
IN BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM...AND LOOKS TO BRING MUCH COOLER AIR
THAN WE HAVE SEEN RECENTLY BACK TO THE REGION. H85 TEMPS FALL INTO
THE -6 TO -19 DEGREE RANGE ON WEDNESDAY...AND REMAIN COLD INTO THE
DAY THURSDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS TODAY. WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE ACROSS
THE AREA BY 16Z AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNSET.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DORN
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ABERDEEN SD
405 AM CST FRI JAN 6 2012
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY
THE FORECAST CHALLENGE IS TEMPERATURE.
CURRENTLY...LOW LEVEL CAA IS OCCURRING. 925HPA TEMPS HAVE FALLEN 5C
TO 10C DEGREES OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. TEMPERATURES ARE STEADY OR
SLOWLY FALLING MAINLY THROUGH THE 30S AMID A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY.
0.5KM WIND SPEEDS /PER RUC MODEL/ ARE 25 TO 40 KNOTS EARLY THIS
MORNING.
LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE CONTINUING TO COOL TODAY DOWN TO A
RANGE OF GENERALLY 0C TO +3C...WHICH IS ROUGHLY A 10C TO 15C DROP
IN 925HPA TEMPERATURES IN 24 HOURS. DIFFERENT FROM PREVIOUS DAYS
WHEN 0.5KM WIND SPEEDS WERE BETWEEN 25 AND 40 KNOTS...WIND SPEEDS
THAT STRONG TODAY WILL BE MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE MUCH MORE
EFFICIENTLY WHILE LOW LEVEL CAA IS ONGOING. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15
TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS IS EXPECTED. HEADING INTO SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...-2C TO +4C AIR AT 925HPA IS PROGGED TO RESIDE OVER THE
CWA. SO...BASICALLY LOOKING AT SIMILAR TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT
THREE DAYS...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S THROUGH THE MID 40S.
THE DRY FORECAST UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT ALSO PERSISTS THROUGH
SUNDAY...EVEN THOUGH A FEW SUBTLE S/W TROFS APPEAR TO WORK ACROSS
THE REGION.
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
THE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT DURING THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...WITH JUST SOME DIFFERENCES CONCERNING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT. LOOKING AT ANOTHER DECENT WARM UP EARLY IN
THE PERIOD AS THE REGION WILL BE UNDER UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW
AND ON THE WAA SIDE OF A SURFACE TROUGH. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
40S LOOK TO BE COMMON BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE SURFACE
TROUGH/FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING AS AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE SLIDES FROM CENTRAL CANADA TO THE GREAT LAKES BY
THURSDAY MORNING. THE BEST ENERGY LOOKS TO AFFECT THE CWA TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. MODEL TIME SECTIONS SHOW PRETTY GOOD
LIFT...BUT NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF LOWER TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE.
THE GFS IS THE LEAST AGGRESSIVE MODEL WITH THE PRECIPITATION...WHILE
THE ECMWF INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR AN INCH OR SO OF
ACCUMULATION. TOO MANY DIFFERENCES RIGHT NOW...SO WILL JUST STICK
WITH THE ALLBLEND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES
IN BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM...AND LOOKS TO BRING MUCH COOLER AIR
THAN WE HAVE SEEN RECENTLY BACK TO THE REGION. H85 TEMPS FALL INTO
THE -6 TO -19 DEGREE RANGE ON WEDNESDAY...AND REMAIN COLD INTO THE
DAY THURSDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25
TO 30 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL LOCATIONS BY 17Z...CONTINUING
THROUGH 23Z.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DORN
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...MOHR
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
515 AM CST FRI JAN 6 2012
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
215 AM CST FRI JAN 6 2012
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES IN THIS ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURE PATTERN.
CURRENTLY AS OF 08Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED WEAK RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE U.S. AND BRITISH
COLUMBIA...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER MONTANA...THEN NEARLY ZONAL FLOW
FROM THE DAKOTAS EASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND. AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...A 90-110 KT JET WAS PRESENT FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO UPPER
MICHIGAN. THIS JET COMBINED WITH A STREAM OF PACIFIC MOISTURE IS
HELPING TO PRODUCE SCATTERED-BROKEN CIRRUS FROM SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NEBRASKA NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. MOISTURE VERY HARD
TO COME BY BELOW THIS CIRRUS...NOTED BY 10C OR HIGHER DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS FROM THE SURFACE TO 500MB ON 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM
MPX...ABR AND BIS. 850MB TEMPS ON THESE SOUNDINGS RANGED FROM AROUND
10C AT ABR AND MPX...WHILE A COOLER READING OF 7C WAS REPORTED AT
BIS. BIS WAS LOCATED BEHIND A COLD FRONT WHICH CURRENTLY EXTENDS
FROM DES MOINES IOWA INTO NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. 925MB VAD WIND PROFILER
DATA DEPICTS 30-40 KT NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
DESPITE THIS COLD ADVECTION...THE WINDS IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE
CLOUDS AND GENERALLY MILD AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT...HAS HELPED TO
KEEP TEMPERATURES UP IN THE 30S AND INTO THE LOW 40S.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER MONTANA IS FORECAST BY ALL
MODELS TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...THOUGH THE CRUX OF
THE TROUGH LOOKS TO AFFECT UPPER MICHIGAN. AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES
THE AREA TODAY...THE UPPER JET STREAK SEEN AHEAD OF IT WILL SLOWLY
SINK TO THE SOUTHEAST...AND THEREFORE SO WILL THE SCATTERED-BROKEN
CIRRUS. ALONG WITH THE SLOW DECREASE IN CLOUDS FROM THE NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST...THE APPROACH OF THE TROUGH ALONG WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
CURRENT COLD FRONT MEANS COLD ADVECTION TODAY. STILL...THE COLD
ADVECTION IS GRADUAL...NOTED BY 925MB TEMPS WHICH START OFF AT 6-8C
AT 12Z AND ONLY FALL TO 1-4C BY 00Z. SUNSHINE THROUGH THE HIGH
CLOUDS...WINDS TO HELP WITH MIXING...MOSTLY A LACK OF SNOW EXCEPT
NORTH OF I-94...AND A WARM START OFF SHOULD YIELD ANOTHER WELL ABOVE
NORMAL DAY TODAY. MOST AREAS SHOULD AT LEAST SEE HIGHS IN THE 40S
WITH SOME LOCATIONS REACHING INTO THE LOWER 50S. A LITTLE COOLER AIR
COMES IN TONIGHT WITH 925MB TEMPS FALLING TO -2 TO -5C BY 12Z
SATURDAY. SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY ACCOMPANY THIS COOLING AND DROP DOWN
INTO NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...BUT NO LIFT IS PRESENT WITHIN THE
CLOUD LAYER TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION. GENERALLY FOLLOWED A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE FOR LOWS.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT IS PROGGED TO SCOOT OFF TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY...LEAVING
THE AREA IN WEAK BROAD TROUGHING. THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMING THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...IN ADVANCE
OF RIDGING BUILDING UP ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO SOUTHWEST
CANADA. NONE OF THESE FEATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ANY
PRECIPITATION...DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF TOO MUCH DRY AIR. THERE WILL
BE PERIODS OF CLOUDS AFFECTING THE AREA...HOWEVER. THE FIRST IS
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-94...WHERE LOW CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THESE CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL
COOLING LEFT BEHIND FROM TONIGHTS SHORTWAVE TROUGH. ANTICIPATING
THESE CLOUDS TO CLEAR OUT ON SUNDAY AS WARM/DRY ADVECTION SURGES IN
FROM THE PLAINS. THIS SAME ADVECTION ON THE OTHER HAND DOES LOOK
TO PRODUCE SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS...MAINLY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 2/3 OF THE AREA. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR OUT
SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. REGARDING
TEMPERATURES...925MB READINGS ARE PROGGED TO HOLD FAIRLY STEADY
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...BETWEEN -2 AND -6C...THEN SLOWLY START
RISING TO AROUND 0C BY 12Z MONDAY AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMES
THROUGH. THIS MEANS THE WEEKEND WILL BE COOLER...BUT STILL ABOVE
NORMAL. A BLEND OF GUIDANCE WITH A LEAN TOWARDS THE ECMWF SEEMS
APPROPRIATE...SINCE THE ECMWF HAS BEEN DOING WELL IN THIS ABOVE
NORMAL PATTERN.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
215 AM CST FRI JAN 6 2012
06.00Z ECMWF/GFS/CANADIAN AND GFS ENSEMBLES REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH PREVIOUS RUNS AND WITH EACH OTHER ON THE UPCOMING WEATHER
PATTERN FOR NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES FOR THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...BUT IN GENERAL THEY DEPICT A WELL AGREED UPON
PATTERN. MONDAY AND TUESDAY FEATURE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH
AGAIN...IN RESPONSE TO THE BUILDING RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES ON SUNDAY NIGHT BEING FLATTENED AND SENT EASTWARD THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA. 925MB TEMPS RESPOND BY JUMPING FROM THE 0C AT 12Z
MONDAY TO 2-4C AT 00Z TUESDAY...THEN HOVERING AROUND THOSE LEVELS
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST WITH
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO ECMWF PROGGED VALUES. PATTERN CHANGES COME
LATER TUESDAY AS A POTENT TROUGH DIGS DOWN INTO ALBERTA AND
SASKATCHEWAN. THIS TROUGH ALL MODELS HAVE DIGGING DOWN INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BUT AGAIN THE TIMING
VARIES. THE 06.00Z GFS/GFS ENSEMBLES/CANADIAN ALL BRING IT INTO THE
FORECAST AREA LATE WEDNESDAY...WHEREAS THE 05.12Z ECMWF STILL HAS IT
BACK OVER THE DAKOTAS AT THE SAME TIME. FOR NOW HAVE FOLLOWED A
CONSENSUS BLEND UNTIL THE TIMING CAN SORT ITSELF OUT. 850MB TEMPS
PLUMMET WITHIN THE TROUGH...DROPPING TO -12 TO PERHAPS AS COLD AS
-20C UNDER THE CORE OF IT. SO CERTAINLY MORE WINTER LIKE AIR WILL
END UP MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA. PRECIPITATION ON THE OTHER
HAND IS MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN...DUE TO MOST OF THE MOISTURE TRAPPED
WITH A SYSTEM TRACKING ALONG THE GULF COAST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES. THERE IS SOME AGREEMENT ON A BAND OF DEFORMATION AND DPVA
FORCED PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...BUT UNCERTAINTIES ON
TIMING AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE RESULT IN NO HIGHER THAN 20-30 PERCENT
CHANCES AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...TODAY AND TONIGHT
514 AM CST FRI JAN 6 2012
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. A TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH WINDS
SWITCHING TO THE NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20
KTS POSSIBLE. THE MAIN IMPACTS FROM THE TROUGH WILL BE THE WIND
SWITCH AND SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH. PLAN ON CLOUD BASES
IN THE 8 TO 15 KFT RANGE AS THE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. LOOK FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO RETURN
TONIGHT. SOME MVFR CEILINGS WILL ADVECT SOUTHWARD FROM SOUTHERN
ONTARIO/MANITOBA TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. MODELS KEEP
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN/MINNESOTA. WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESSION OF THE STRATUS DECK CLOSELY LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
215 AM CST FRI JAN 6 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM....AJ
AVIATION.....WETENKAMP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1108 AM MST FRI JAN 6 2012
.AVIATION...
COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE EASTERN PLAINS...WITH BRIEF
PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTH WINDS IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING THE FROPA. FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS GRADUALLY
SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH THROUGH
THE PLAINS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH
ONLY SOME OCCASIONAL CIGS AROUND BKN120 THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 427 AM MST FRI JAN 6 2012/
SHORT TERM...
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
UPPER TROF CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS NRN U.S. ROCKIES WHICH WILL BE
SENDING A DRY COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. MSAS CURRENTLY SHOWING 2-3MB 3 HR
PRESSURE RISES WORKING SOUTHWARD INTO FAR NE CO AS OF 09Z. HRRR AND
NAM12 DROP FRONT SOUTH OF THE PALMER DIVIDE SHORTLY AFTER 12Z...THEN
THROUGH MOST OF THE SE PLAINS BY 16Z. INITIALLY MIXING BEHIND THE
FRONT SHOULD HELP BOOST MAX TEMPS EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH TEMPS
THEN HOLDING STEADY OR FALLING SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT COULD BRIEFLY BECOME GUSTY AROUND 15 TO 25
MPH THROUGH THE MORNING...THOUGH SHOULD START TO DIMINISH IN THE
AFTERNOON AS SFC HIGH SETTLES IN AND LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS OUT OF
THE NORTHEAST TO EAST BY EARLY EVENING. WILL ALSO SEE SOME WAVE
CLOUDINESS ACROSS NRN/EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FCST AREA THOUGH THE
EARLY TO MID PORTION OF THE DAY. HAVE INCREASED SKY COVER GRIDS
ACCORDINGLY. AS FOR HIGHS...COOLING TODAY SHOULD DROP MAXES AROUND
10-20 DEGREES OUT EAST...AND AROUND 10 DEGREES OUT WEST. EXCEPTION
TO THIS WILL BE OVER THE SNOW PACK ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS WHERE
MAX TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR TO A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY.
TONIGHT...ATTENTION TURNS TOWARDS THE NEXT PACIFIC TROF WHICH WILL
BE ENTERING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AFTER 00Z AND INTO THE NRN GREAT
BASIN BY 12Z SAT. GFS AND ECMWF START TO SPREAD SNOW INTO THE
CENTRAL MTS AFTER 06-09Z. HOWEVER NAM KEEPS FCST DRY. WILL START TO
SEE MORE HIGH CLOUDINESS SPREAD IN OVERNIGHT...AND SOUNDINGS MOISTEN
DOWN TO H6 ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTS TOWARDS 12Z. THINK THE GFS AND
ECMWF MAY BE STARTING UP PCPN A LITTLE TOO QUICKLY SO WILL KEEP ANY
POPS AT OR BELOW 5 PERCENT. THIS MAY NEED TO BE RE-EVALUATED BASED
ON ANY FURTHER CHANGES IN THE MODEL TRENDS. -KT
LONG TERM...
(SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
CONTINUED TO FOLLOW THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED WITH THE
NAM BEING THE OUTLIER. AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
DROP SOUTH OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST BEFORE TRACKING SOUTHEAST INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS
WILL BRING A ROUND OF SNOW TO MOST OF THE REGION BEGINNING
SATURDAY AND CLEARING THE REGION ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT SNOW
TO DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS ON
SATURDAY AND SPREAD EAST INTO THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PALMER
DIVIDE SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS LESS CERTAIN ON THE PLAINS WITH
LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE PLAINS BEHIND A COLD
FRONT. THE AMOUNT OF SNOW OVER THE PLAINS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE
DEGREE OF UPSLOPE FLOW WHICH AT THIS POINT DOES NOT LOOK OVERLY
FANTASTIC. AS FAR AS SNOWFALL TOTALS...EXPECT TO SEE THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND PIKES PEAK WHERE GENERALLY
4 TO 8 INCHES IS POSSIBLE. OVER THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
RANGE...AMOUNTS WILL VARY WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS...3 TO 5 INCHES
OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE RANGE. EXPECT AMOUNTS OF ONLY AN
INCH OR TWO FOR MOST OF THE PLAINS. OF NOTE...THE NAM HAS A MORE
NORTHERLY TRACK TO THE STORM SYSTEM WITH A HEAVY BAND OF SNOW
DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHERN HALF OF THE PLAINS AND HEAVY SNOW FOR
THE PALMER DIVIDE. THESE AREAS ACCORDING TO THE NAM WOULD HAVE
MUCH HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...BUT GIVEN THE NAM BEING AN OUTLIER
WILL THROW OUT THE SOLUTION FOR NOW.
BEYOND SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE ROCKIES MONDAY
AND TUESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN
CONUS. EXPECT A WARMING TREND MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 40S...EXCEPT FOR THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE ARKANSAS
RIVER VALLEY WHERE HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 30S.
THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH OUT OF CENTRAL
CANADA AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MODELS DIFFER ON HOW FAR
SOUTH THE TROUGH DIGS WITH THE ECMWF BEING THE FURTHEST SOUTH. ONE
THING IS CERTAIN...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE
FRONT OVER THE PLAINS...WITH THE GFS HINTING AT VERY STRONG WINDS
NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE MUCH COOLER WITH
HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN THE 30S. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE
THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. THE GFS WITH ITS FURTHER NORTH
SOLUTION BRINGS THE FRONT THROUGH DRY...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS MORE
UPSLOPE AND DYNAMICS WITH WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOWFALL FOR LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW INTRODUCED LOW POPS FOR MUCH
OF THE REGION BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS POINT FOR ANY TO OCCUR.
EXPECT DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH THE REGION
UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. 88
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT TAF SITES...WITH NORTH WINDS 10-15KTS
AFFECTING KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES STARTING AROUND 12-13Z AT KCOS AND
14-15Z AT KPUB. KCOS COULD SEE SOME BRIEF GUSTS TO 25 KTS DURING
THE MORNING. OTHERWISE...SOME HIGH CIRRUS/AC EXPECTED AT KCOS AND
KPUB THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. KALS WILL SEE LIGHT WINDS
THROUGH THE DAY. -KT
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 AM SATURDAY TO 11 AM MST SUNDAY
FOR COZ058-060.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM SATURDAY TO 11 AM MST SUNDAY
FOR COZ082.
&&
$$
10/28
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1112 AM CST FRI JAN 6 2012
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 936 AM CST FRI JAN 6 2012
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY INDICATED ON SURFACE ANALYSIS ROUGHLY ALONG A
KANSAS CITY TO GREEN BAY LINE...WITH 12Z MODELS SHOWING AN EARLY
TO MID AFTERNOON PASSAGE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS.
WITH JUST SOME CIRRUS WITH IT...WILL ONCE AGAIN GET GOOD MIXING
FROM AROUND 900 MB AND TEMPERATURES PUSHING THE 60 DEGREE MARK
OVER MOST OF THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA. HAVE SENT SOME UPDATED
GRIDS TO REFINE HOURLY TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT TRENDS...BUT
EARLIER FORECAST LOOKS GOOD OVERALL AND NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE
WORDED FORECASTS.
GEELHART
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1111 AM CST FRI JAN 6 2012
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS GENERALLY IN THE 20Z-01Z PERIOD...TURNING
WINDS MORE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. CLOUDINESS WITH IT WILL MAINLY
BE 10KFT OR HIGHER.
GEELHART
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 325 AM CST FRI JAN 6 2012
ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY MILD DAY EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SE
IL WITH TEMPERATURES MORE LIKE LATE MARCH INSTEAD OF EARLY
JANUARY. WILL CONTINUE TO SIDE WARMER THAN GUIDANCE TEMPS ESPECIALLY
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS AS GUIDANCE AS BEEN MUCH TOO COOL FOR
HIGHS DURING THE PAST FEW DAYS. QUIET WEATHER STILL EXPECTED
THROUGH TUE ALONG WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. 00Z MODELS STILL
DIFFER WITH HANDLING OF CUTOFF LOW MOVING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
STATES DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. GFS AND GEM MODELS
STILL APPEAR TO FAST AND WILL LEAN TOWARD THE SLOWER ECMWF MODEL.
FORECAST CONCERN IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND TYPE WED AND WED
NIGHT.
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY
PREDAWN SURFACE MAP SHOWS ELONGATED 994 MB LOW PRESSURE OVER SW
ONTARIO NORTH OF MN WITH A COLD FRONT OVER NW PARTS OF WI AND IA.
1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO KEEPING MOISTURE
LOCKED NEAR THE GULF COAST. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVER CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN IL EARLY THIS MORNING WITH CIRRUS CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN
IL FROM I-80 NORTH. MILD TEMPS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S
EXCEPT COOLER 34F AT PEORIA AND 48F AT JACKSONVILLE AND 50F AT
PITTSFIELD. DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE LOWER 30S WITH SSW WINDS 5 TO 15
MPH. NEARLY ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE COUNTRY.
MODELS BRING THE WEAK COLD FRONT SE THROUGH THE IL RIVER VALLEY
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNSET AND THROUGH SE IL THIS EVENING.
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED TODAY WITH JUST INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS
WHILE COLD AIR ADVECTION LAGS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. WILL LEAN
TOWARD THE WARMER HRRR MODEL FOR HIGHS IN THE MID 50S FROM THE IL
RIVER NW AND LOWER 60S FROM SPRINGFIELD TO ROBINSON SOUTH. THIS IS
STILL SHY OF RECORD HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70F. COOLER
LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 30S WHICH IS ACTUALLY CLOSE TO
NORMAL HIGHS FOR EARLY JANUARY OVER CENTRAL IL.
MODELS HAVE TRENDED WEAKER WITH UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST THIS WEEKEND WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW STILL OVER CENTRAL IL.
THIS COMBINED WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE SAT WILL NUDGE HIGHS
UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S WITH 50F AT LAWRENCEVILLE. MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING
INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND CENTRAL PLAINS. A BIT COOLER HIGHS IN
THE MID 40S SUNDAY DUE TO MORE CLOUDS. THESE CLOUDS TO DECREASE
FROM NW TO SE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MON MORNING AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLES INTO CENTRAL IL WHILE UPPER LEVEL TROF
BEGINS TO PULL AWAY FROM IL AS UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE AGAIN.
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S MON AND UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S TUE
WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
CONTINUED TO LEAN ON THE SLOWER ECMWF MODEL WITH HANDLING OF
CUTOFF LOW EJECTING FROM THE SW STATES DURING MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
REACHING THE LOWER MS VALLEY TUE NIGHT AND OVER THE TN VALLEY WED.
THIS MODEL HAS TRENDED FURTHER SE WITH QPF OVER SE IL WED WHILE
GEM IS DRY OVER IL. MEANWHILE GFS MODEL WHICH WAS DRY YESTERDAY
NOW IS THE WETTER MODEL WITH SPREADING QPF ACROSS CENTRAL IL
DURING WED. WITH ALL THESE DIFFERENCES WILL LEAVE THE ALLBLEND
POPS INTACT WITH SMALL CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN OVERNIGHT TUE NIGHT
OVER SE IL AND 20-40% CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN WED WITH SLIGHT CHANCES
NW OVER THE IL RIVER VALLEY WHILE 40% IN SE IL. MEANWHILE A STRONG
NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL TROF/LOW TO DIG SOUTH INTO THE MIDWEST
WED AND WED NIGHT PUSHING THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES WED NIGHT. BRUNT OF PRECIPITATION TO SHIFT EAST OF
IL WED NIGHT AND THU AS COLDER AIR USHERS INTO IL. THIS TO CHANGE
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS DURING WED NIGHT AND A
FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLY LINGERING THU ESPECIALLY IN
EASTERN IL. TEMPS FINALLY COOL BACK TO NORMAL THU AND THEN DRY AND
SEASONABLY COLD NEXT FRI.
HUETTL
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
120 PM CST FRI JAN 6 2012
.UPDATE...
HAVE NUDGED TEMPS UPWARD A FEW DEGREES TODAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE
SOUTHEAST CWA...TO READINGS CLOSER TO 925MB MIX-DOWN VALUES. TEMPS
CONTINUE TO RISE EASILY TODAY DESPITE CLOUD COVER...AIDED BY
MIXING ON NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. HAVE ALSO INCREASED SKY COVER FOR
THE DAY AS STUBBORN BAND OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WORKS THROUGH THE
AREA.
MAYES
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KLNK...AND KOFK.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. NORTHWEST WINDS
OF 12-15KT WILL DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET...THEN BECOME WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT. SCT-BKN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND 10-12KFT
WILL LINGER THROUGH AROUND 00Z...WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY.
MAYES
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 522 AM CST FRI JAN 6 2012/
AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KLNK...KOFK.
COLD FRONT MOVING INTO EXTREME SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AT 11Z
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING BY 18Z WITH GUSTS TO 25KT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. WINDS DIMINISH BY 00Z. VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM CST FRI JAN 6 2012/
DISCUSSION /TODAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY/...
GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER THROUGHOUT WITH COLDER AIR COMING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
THE LATEST WV IMAGERY/400MB RUC HEIGHTS/LATEST METARS SHOWS A
SURFACE TROUGH HAS PASSED THROUGH THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. THE
ONLY NOTICEABLE AFFECT HAS BEEN AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN MILD. BEHIND THE FRONT THE
AIRMASS IS NOTABLY COOLER WHEN COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...THOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT SIGNIFICANTLY COOL MUCH UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. MOST AREAS SHOULD REACH THE LOW 50S TODAY...STILL 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...DESPITE THE ADVANCE OF COLDER AIR ALOFT.
POST FRONTAL WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN IN CHECK WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 25 MPH AT BEST. SO OVERALL STILL A
PRETTY NICE DAY FOR WINTER. WE DO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH SITUATED OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE KEEPS THE BETTER MOISTURE ALONG WITH QG FORCING SOUTH OF
THE PLATTE RIVER IN THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY
WARNING AREA. WE WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO SEE MUCH OF ANY
ACCUMULATIONS FROM THESE SNOW SHOWERS AS THE BEST FORCING IS WELL
OFF TO OUR WEST. THIS FEATURE SHIFTS SOUTH AND EAST THROUGHOUT THE
DAY ON SUNDAY. BEHIND IT THE WEATHER LOOKS QUIET AND DRY. BY
WEDNESDAY A MORE WINTERTIME AIRMASS WILL DIVE INTO THE PLAINS FROM
CANADA. 850MB AIRMASS TEMPERATURES OF -10 TO -13C WILL SUPPORT
HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS AND LOW 20S ALLOWING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO
DROP BELOW NORMAL FOR A CHANGE.
CLIMATE...
HERE IS A SUMMARY OF THE RECORDS BROKEN YESTERDAY.
AT 354 PM CST THE TEMPERATURE REACHED 66 DEGREES AT OMAHA EPPLEY
AIRFIELD. THIS BROKE THE OLD RECORD HIGH OF 62 DEGREES WHICH WAS SET
IN 1956.
AT 346 PM CST THE TEMPERATURE REACHED 68 DEGREES AT THE LINCOLN
AIRPORT. THIS BROKE THE PREVIOUS RECORD HIGH OF 61 DEGREES WHICH WAS
SET IN 1956.
AT 351 PM CST...THE TEMPERATURE REACHED 70 DEGREES AT THE NORFOLK
AIRPORT. THIS BROKE THE PREVIOUS RECORD HIGH OF 55 DEGREES WHICH WAS
SET IN 1956.
AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KLNK...KOFK
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT...
SWITCHING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST. WINDS SHOULD MAINLY BE LESS
THAN 10 KNOTS THROUGH MID MORNING FRIDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
BE INCREASING BY ABOUT MID DAY FRIDAY AND COULD BE A BIT GUSTY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS...WITH ANY CLOUDS GENERALLY ABOVE 8000 FEET.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
99/99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
541 PM EST FRI JAN 6 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL ON SATURDAY...THEN RETURN TO NORMAL
LEVELS SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 541 PM EST FRIDAY...OVERALL FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH JUST
A TWEAK OF HOURLY TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST WINDS
IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY CONTINUE TO DRAIN SOUTHWEST AND THIS
HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S...SO HAVE
ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPERATURES TO DELAY ANY WARMING UNTIL LATER
TONIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER ELSEWHERE OVER
THE AREA IS HELPING TO HOLD TEMPERATURES FAIRLY STEADY AND HAVE
ADJUSTED TEMPERATURE GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR MINIMAL DIURNAL TREND
OVERNIGHT. THIS IS MOST PRONOUNCED OVER THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM
WHERE MODEL TEMPERATURES ALWAYS WANT TO COOL THINGS DOWN...BUT
CLOUDS WILL LIMIT THAT. REMAINDER OF FORECAST IN REAL GOOD SHAPE
AND NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EST FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS WAY
EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC ON SATURDAY. PRE-FONTAL TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...BUT ACTUAL COLD
FRONT DOESN`T DROP SOUTH ACROSS FORECAST AREA TILL SATURDAY NIGHT.
EXPECT SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY...MAINLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN ZONES. WHILE WARMEST AIR WILL REMAIN
SOUTH OF FORECAST AREA...MAX TEMPS ACROSS BTV CWA WILL BE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S...PERHAPS APPROACHING 50 SOUTHERN AREAS.
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AS COLD FRONT AND MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVE ACROSS THE REGION . AGAIN THE BETTER CHANCE FOR
SEEING PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER NORTHERN ZONES...AND THERE MAY BE
SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY WITH MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS AND COLDER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS AROUND NORMAL LEVELS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EST FRIDAY...THE SYSTEM FOR LATE WEDS INTO THURS OF
THIS UPCOMING WEEK...LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO THE DEC 27-28TH EVENT
WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRES TRACK AND POSITION OF MID/UPPER
LVL TROF. THE INITIAL SURGE OF MOISTURE/LIFT WL IMPACT OUR CWA LATE
WEDS NIGHT...WITH A MIX CHANGING TO RAIN...THEN BACK TO SNOW AS
COLDER AIR RACES ACRS OUR CWA ON THURS. LIKE THE DEC 28TH EVENT A
FLASH FREEZE WL BE POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING
UPSLOPE SNOW ON THURS AFTN/EVENING.
POTENT MID/UPPER LVL CIRCULATION WL EJECT FOR SW CONUS ON TUES
INTO WEDS...WITH SFC LOW PRES TRACKING ALONG THE GULF COAST
STATES...THEN MOVING ACRS THE APPALACHIAN MTNS TWD THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES BY THURS. THIS SYSTEM WL ADVECT PLENTY OF MOISTURE
INTO OUR CWA...AS PWS VALUES APPROACH 1.0". THIS
MOISTURE...COMBINED WITH POTENT S/W ENERGY AND NOSE OF STRONG LLVL
JET WL HELP IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIP FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACRS
OUR REGION LATE WEDS INTO THURS. SE FLW ASSOCIATED WITH INITIAL
SURGE OF MOISTURE...WL PRODUCE SOME SHADOWING EFFECTS ACRS THE
EASTERN CPV AND PARTS OF THE NEK...WHICH COMBINED WITH FAST
MOVEMENT OF SYSTEM WL LIMIT DURATION OF PRECIP. MEANWHILE...AS
SFC LOW PRES TRACKS INTO SOUTHERN CANADA...STRONG LLVL CAA WL
DEVELOP ON THURS AFTN...AND TEMPS WL FALL. THESE FALLING TEMPS ON
NW UPSLOPE FLW WL INTERACT WITH NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY AND
MOISTURE TO PRODUCE A PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS. SOME ACCUMULATION
CAN BE ANTICIPATED...ESPECIALLY ACRS THE NORTHERN DACKS AND PARTS
OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN GREEN MTNS. COOLER AND DRIER WX WL RETURN
FOR FRIDAY WITH SOME MTN SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
OTHERWISE...MONDAY AND TUES OF THIS UPCOMING WEEK WL BE
RELATIVELY QUIET WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES
FOR SCATTERED MAINLY MTN SNOW SHOWERS...ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHERN
STREAM ENERGY/MOISTURE.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...A SURFACE WARM FRNT CONTS TO PRODUCE PLENTY
OF CLOUDS ACRS OUR TAF SITES THIS AFTN...WITH RADAR SHOWING JUST A
FEW FLURRIES. VIS SATL PIC SHOWS CLRING SKIES ACRS CENTRAL
NY...TRYING TO MOVE TWD OUR REGION THIS AFTN. TAF CHALLENGE WL BE
AMOUNT OF LLVL MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL FOR MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
TONIGHT. RUC AND NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW PLENTY OF LLVL MOISTURE
DEVELOPING AFT 00Z THIS EVENING AS WARM AIR MOVES ACRS THE
RELATIVELY COLD/SNOW COVERED GROUND. IN ADDITION...SOME MELTING WL
ALSO ADD TO THE MOISTURE IN THE BL. WL MENTION MVFR CIGS AT MOST
TAF SITES...WITH BEST POTENTIAL FOR IFR AT MPV/SLK/MSS. AT MSS NE
SFC WINDS WL SHIFT TO THE SW BY 03Z THIS EVENING...AS SFC WARM
FRNT FINALLY LIFTS THRU THE SLV. ALSO...PATCHY AREAS OF
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE WL BE POSSIBLE...GIVEN AMOUNT OF LLVL
MOISTURE PROGGED TO BE ACRS OUR MTN SITES...BUT NO ICE
ACCUMULATION IS ANTICIPATING. IMPROVING CONDITIONS WL DEVELOP BY
14Z SATURDAY...WITH SOUTHERLY FLW OF 5 TO 15 KNTS.
OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
ON SATURDAY EVENING A SURFACE COLD FRNT WL PRODUCE SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS...WHICH WL CHANGE TO ALL SNOW BY LATE EVENING.
OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS FOR SEVERAL HRS WL BE POSSIBLE ON SAT
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY AT MPV/SLK. OTHERWISE...SFC HIGH PRES
AND VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL SUNDAY AFTN THRU TUESDAY.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...EVENSON/RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
342 PM EST FRI JAN 6 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL ON SATURDAY...THEN RETURN TO NORMAL
LEVELS SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 340 PM EST FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE LOCATED NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES WILL TRACK SLOWLY EAST TONIGHT. WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE ITS WAY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION BEING DETECTED ACROSS FORECAST
AREA AT THIS TIME...AND EXPECT THIS TO REMAIN THE CASE TONIGHT
AS FORCING WEAK AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE LIMITED. SOME SPOTTY
LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AREAS...AND
IT COULD BE IN FORM OF FLURRIES OR SNOW GRAINS...DRIZZLE OR FREEZING
DRIZZLE. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS IN
NORTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TO THE UPPER 30S IN SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA. EXPECT RATHER STEADY TEMPERATURES
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS TONIGHT...WITH READINGS RISING OVER
THE FAR NORTH AS LOW LEVEL COLD AIR IS GRADUALLY SCOURED OUT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EST FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS WAY
EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC ON SATURDAY. PREFRONTAL TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...BUT ACTUAL COLD
FRONT DOESN`T DROP SOUTH ACROSS FORECAST AREA TILL SATURDAY NIGHT.
EXPECT SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY...MAINLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN ZONES. WHILE WARMEST AIR WILL REMAIN
SOUTH OF FORECAST AREA...MAX TEMPS ACROSS BTV CWA WILL BE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S...PERHAPS APPROACHING 50 SOUTHERN AREAS.
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AS COLD FRONT AND MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVE ACROSS THE REGION . AGAIN THE BETTER CHANCE FOR
SEEING PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER NORTHERN ZONES...AND THERE MAY BE
SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY WITH MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS AND COLDER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS AROUND NORMAL LEVELS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EST FRIDAY...THE SYSTEM FOR LATE WEDS INTO THURS OF
THIS UPCOMING WEEK...LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO THE DEC 27-28TH EVENT
WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRES TRACK AND POSITION OF MID/UPPER
LVL TROF. THE INITIAL SURGE OF MOISTURE/LIFT WL IMPACT OUR CWA LATE
WEDS NIGHT...WITH A MIX CHANGING TO RAIN...THEN BACK TO SNOW AS
COLDER AIR RACES ACRS OUR CWA ON THURS. LIKE THE DEC 28TH EVENT A
FLASH FREEZE WL BE POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING
UPSLOPE SNOW ON THURS AFTN/EVENING.
POTENT MID/UPPER LVL CIRCULATION WL EJECT FOR SW CONUS ON TUES
INTO WEDS...WITH SFC LOW PRES TRACKING ALONG THE GULF COAST
STATES...THEN MOVING ACRS THE APPALACHIAN MTNS TWD THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES BY THURS. THIS SYSTEM WL ADVECT PLENTY OF MOISTURE
INTO OUR CWA...AS PWS VALUES APPROACH 1.0". THIS
MOISTURE...COMBINED WITH POTENT S/W ENERGY AND NOSE OF STRONG LLVL
JET WL HELP IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIP FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACRS
OUR REGION LATE WEDS INTO THURS. SE FLW ASSOCIATED WITH INITIAL
SURGE OF MOISTURE...WL PRODUCE SOME SHADOWING EFFECTS ACRS THE
EASTERN CPV AND PARTS OF THE NEK...WHICH COMBINED WITH FAST
MOVEMENT OF SYSTEM WL LIMIT DURATION OF PRECIP. MEANWHILE...AS
SFC LOW PRES TRACKS INTO SOUTHERN CANADA...STRONG LLVL CAA WL
DEVELOP ON THURS AFTN...AND TEMPS WL FALL. THESE FALLING TEMPS ON
NW UPSLOPE FLW WL INTERACT WITH NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY AND
MOISTURE TO PRODUCE A PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS. SOME ACCUMULATION
CAN BE ANTICIPATED...ESPECIALLY ACRS THE NORTHERN DACKS AND PARTS
OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN GREEN MTNS. COOLER AND DRIER WX WL RETURN
FOR FRIDAY WITH SOME MTN SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
OTHERWISE...MONDAY AND TUES OF THIS UPCOMING WEEK WL BE
RELATIVELY QUIET WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES
FOR SCATTERED MAINLY MTN SNOW SHOWERS...ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHERN
STREAM ENERGY/MOISTURE.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...A SURFACE WARM FRNT CONTS TO PRODUCE PLENTY
OF CLOUDS ACRS OUR TAF SITES THIS AFTN...WITH RADAR SHOWING JUST A
FEW FLURRIES. VIS SATL PIC SHOWS CLRING SKIES ACRS CENTRAL
NY...TRYING TO MOVE TWD OUR REGION THIS AFTN. TAF CHALLENGE WL BE
AMOUNT OF LLVL MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL FOR MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
TONIGHT. RUC AND NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW PLENTY OF LLVL MOISTURE
DEVELOPING AFT 00Z THIS EVENING AS WARM AIR MOVES ACRS THE
RELATIVELY COLD/SNOW COVERED GROUND. IN ADDITION...SOME MELTING WL
ALSO ADD TO THE MOISTURE IN THE BL. WL MENTION MVFR CIGS AT MOST
TAF SITES...WITH BEST POTENTIAL FOR IFR AT MPV/SLK/MSS. AT MSS NE
SFC WINDS WL SHIFT TO THE SW BY 03Z THIS EVENING...AS SFC WARM
FRNT FINALLY LIFTS THRU THE SLV. ALSO...PATCHY AREAS OF
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE WL BE POSSIBLE...GIVEN AMOUNT OF LLVL
MOISTURE PROGGED TO BE ACRS OUR MTN SITES...BUT NO ICE
ACCUMULATION IS ANTICIPATING. IMPROVING CONDITIONS WL DEVELOP BY
14Z SATURDAY...WITH SOUTHERLY FLW OF 5 TO 15 KNTS.
OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
ON SATURDAY EVENING A SURFACE COLD FRNT WL PRODUCE SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS...WHICH WL CHANGE TO ALL SNOW BY LATE EVENING.
OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS FOR SEVERAL HRS WL BE POSSIBLE ON SAT
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY AT MPV/SLK. OTHERWISE...SFC HIGH PRES
AND VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL SUNDAY AFTN THRU TUESDAY.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
236 PM EST FRI JAN 6 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. MAINLY DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND...THOUGH SOME PERIODS OF
LIGHT PRECIPITATION ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSES NORTH OF
THE BORDER. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS
TODAY AND SATURDAY...AND RETURN BACK TO NORMAL FOR SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1244 PM EST FRIDAY...ALL STEADY LIGHT SNOW HAS COME TO AN END
ACROSS THE REGION WITH THIS MORNINGS SNOW LEAVING BEHIND A HALF
INCH TO LOCALLY TWO INCHES OF ACCUMULATION. HOWEVER WITH LINGERING
MOISTURE AND A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINING DRAPED ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND POCKETS OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION REMAIN. SOME ISOLATED AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION
AND MIST WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS BUT
AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT. WITH WARMING LOW LEVELS AND SHALLOW
MOISTURE...THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL IN THE FORM OF A LIGHT
DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE WITH A FLURRY OR TWO POSSIBLE. OVERALL
NOT A BIG DEAL BUT A VERY LIGHT GLAZE OF ICE POSSIBLE ON SOME SURFACES.
MOST OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE THROUGH
THE DAY WITH HIGHS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON CLIMBING INTO THE 30S IN
MOST LOCATIONS. SEEING A LOW LEVEL JET PASSING THROUGH THE REGION
CURRENTLY...SO SOME 20 KNOT GUSTS WILL BE SEEN THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 406 AM EST FRIDAY...CHANCES FOR SOME INTERMITTENT LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS
NORTH OF THE BORDER...THOUGH WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED AGAIN TO THE
NORTHERN ZONES. THE REGION REMAINS UNDER CLOUDY SKIES AND
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW SO EXPECT OVERNIGHT TEMPS TO BE QUITE
MILD...MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S. ATTENDING COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH
CONTINUE CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION. PTYPE FOR SATURDAY WILL
BE MAINLY RAIN WITH SOME SNOW TO START THE DAY AS TEMPS AGAIN WILL
BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH MOST LOCATIONS WARMING INTO THE UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S. IN ADDITION...SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL PROVIDE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LAKE ENHANCED PRECIP DOWNWIND
OF LAKE ONTARIO...THOUGH PROBABLY WON`T BE LONG LIVED AS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. DRY CONDITIONS AND MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EST FRIDAY...THE SYSTEM FOR LATE WEDS INTO THURS OF
THIS UPCOMING WEEK...LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO THE DEC 27-28TH EVENT
WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRES TRACK AND POSITION OF MID/UPPER
LVL TROF. THE INITIAL SURGE OF MOISTURE/LIFT WL IMPACT OUR CWA LATE
WEDS NIGHT...WITH A MIX CHANGING TO RAIN...THEN BACK TO SNOW AS
COLDER AIR RACES ACRS OUR CWA ON THURS. LIKE THE DEC 28TH EVENT A
FLASH FREEZE WL BE POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING
UPSLOPE SNOW ON THURS AFTN/EVENING.
POTENT MID/UPPER LVL CIRCULATION WL EJECT FOR SW CONUS ON TUES
INTO WEDS...WITH SFC LOW PRES TRACKING ALONG THE GULF COAST
STATES...THEN MOVING ACRS THE APPALACHIAN MTNS TWD THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES BY THURS. THIS SYSTEM WL ADVECT PLENTY OF MOISTURE
INTO OUR CWA...AS PWS VALUES APPROACH 1.0". THIS
MOISTURE...COMBINED WITH POTENT S/W ENERGY AND NOSE OF STRONG LLVL
JET WL HELP IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIP FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACRS
OUR REGION LATE WEDS INTO THURS. SE FLW ASSOCIATED WITH INITIAL
SURGE OF MOISTURE...WL PRODUCE SOME SHADOWING EFFECTS ACRS THE
EASTERN CPV AND PARTS OF THE NEK...WHICH COMBINED WITH FAST
MOVEMENT OF SYSTEM WL LIMIT DURATION OF PRECIP. MEANWHILE...AS
SFC LOW PRES TRACKS INTO SOUTHERN CANADA...STRONG LLVL CAA WL
DEVELOP ON THURS AFTN...AND TEMPS WL FALL. THESE FALLING TEMPS ON
NW UPSLOPE FLW WL INTERACT WITH NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY AND
MOISTURE TO PRODUCE A PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS. SOME ACCUMULATION
CAN BE ANTICIPATED...ESPECIALLY ACRS THE NORTHERN DACKS AND PARTS
OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN GREEN MTNS. COOLER AND DRIER WX WL RETURN
FOR FRIDAY WITH SOME MTN SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
OTHERWISE...MONDAY AND TUES OF THIS UPCOMING WEEK WL BE
RELATIVELY QUIET WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES
FOR SCATTERED MAINLY MTN SNOW SHOWERS...ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHERN
STREAM ENERGY/MOISTURE.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...A SURFACE WARM FRNT CONTS TO PRODUCE PLENTY
OF CLOUDS ACRS OUR TAF SITES THIS AFTN...WITH RADAR SHOWING JUST A
FEW FLURRIES. VIS SATL PIC SHOWS CLRING SKIES ACRS CENTRAL
NY...TRYING TO MOVE TWD OUR REGION THIS AFTN. TAF CHALLENGE WL BE
AMOUNT OF LLVL MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL FOR MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
TONIGHT. RUC AND NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW PLENTY OF LLVL MOISTURE
DEVELOPING AFT 00Z THIS EVENING AS WARM AIR MOVES ACRS THE
RELATIVELY COLD/SNOW COVERED GROUND. IN ADDITION...SOME MELTING WL
ALSO ADD TO THE MOISTURE IN THE BL. WL MENTION MVFR CIGS AT MOST
TAF SITES...WITH BEST POTENTIAL FOR IFR AT MPV/SLK/MSS. AT MSS NE
SFC WINDS WL SHIFT TO THE SW BY 03Z THIS EVENING...AS SFC WARM
FRNT FINALLY LIFTS THRU THE SLV. ALSO...PATCHY AREAS OF
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE WL BE POSSIBLE...GIVEN AMOUNT OF LLVL
MOISTURE PROGGED TO BE ACRS OUR MTN SITES...BUT NO ICE
ACCUMULATION IS ANTICIPATING. IMPROVING CONDITIONS WL DEVELOP BY
14Z SATURDAY...WITH SOUTHERLY FLW OF 5 TO 15 KNTS.
OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
ON SATURDAY EVENING A SURFACE COLD FRNT WL PRODUCE SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS...WHICH WL CHANGE TO ALL SNOW BY LATE EVENING.
OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS FOR SEVERAL HRS WL BE POSSIBLE ON SAT
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY AT MPV/SLK. OTHERWISE...SFC HIGH PRES
AND VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL SUNDAY AFTN THRU TUESDAY.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
1245 PM EST FRI JAN 6 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. MAINLY DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND...THOUGH SOME PERIODS OF
LIGHT PRECIPITATION ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSES NORTH OF
THE BORDER. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS
TODAY AND SATURDAY...AND RETURN BACK TO NORMAL FOR SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1244 PM EST FRIDAY...ALL STEADY LIGHT SNOW HAS COME TO AN END
ACROSS THE REGION WITH THIS MORNINGS SNOW LEAVING BEHIND A HALF
INCH TO LOCALLY TWO INCHES OF ACCUMULATION. HOWEVER WITH LINGERING
MOISTURE AND A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINING DRAPED ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND POCKETS OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION REMAIN. SOME ISOLATED AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION
AND MIST WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS BUT
AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT. WITH WARMING LOW LEVELS AND SHALLOW
MOISTURE...THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL IN THE FORM OF A LIGHT
DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE WITH A FLURRY OR TWO POSSIBLE. OVERALL
NOT A BIG DEAL BUT A VERY LIGHT GLAZE OF ICE POSSIBLE ON SOME SURFACES.
MOST OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE THROUGH
THE DAY WITH HIGHS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON CLIMBING INTO THE 30S IN
MOST LOCATIONS. SEEING A LOW LEVEL JET PASSING THROUGH THE REGION
CURRENTLY...SO SOME 20 KNOT GUSTS WILL BE SEEN THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 406 AM EST FRIDAY...CHANCES FOR SOME INTERMITTENT LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS
NORTH OF THE BORDER...THOUGH WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED AGAIN TO THE
NORTHERN ZONES. THE REGION REMAINS UNDER CLOUDY SKIES AND
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW SO EXPECT OVERNIGHT TEMPS TO BE QUITE
MILD...MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S. ATTENDING COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH
CONTINUE CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION. PTYPE FOR SATURDAY WILL
BE MAINLY RAIN WITH SOME SNOW TO START THE DAY AS TEMPS AGAIN WILL
BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH MOST LOCATIONS WARMING INTO THE UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S. IN ADDITION...SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL PROVIDE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LAKE ENHANCED PRECIP DOWNWIND
OF LAKE ONTARIO...THOUGH PROBABLY WON`T BE LONG LIVED AS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. DRY CONDITIONS AND MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM EST FRIDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOW WARM AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPING
ALOFT LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...AS ANOTHER WARM FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION. HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW
SHOWERS FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. ECMWF AND
GFS MODELS SHOW A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...WITH FAIR AND DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED.
ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOW A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE CAROLINAS
EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOW MOISTURE FROM THE LOW OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY AFTER MIDNIGHT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOOKS LIKE THE REGION WILL SEE SOME MIXED
PRECIPITATION DEVELOP LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING...AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW
FREEZING...BUT TEMPERATURES AT 850 MB WILL BE CLIMBING ABOVE ZERO
DEGREES CELSIUS. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS DIFFER WITH THE HANDLING OF
THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST...WITH THE GFS FASTER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE THEN THE ECMWF.
THE GFS MODEL WOULD KEEP A BIT COOLER ALOFT AT 850 MB THEN THE
ECMWF...AND WOULD IMPLY A CHANGE TO SNOW LATER IN THE DAY ON
THURSDAY ACROSS THE REGION. THE ECMWF IS WARMER THEN THE GFS MODEL
AT 850 MB ON THURSDAY AND WOULD IMPLY A MAINLY RAIN EVENT DURING
THE DAY ON THURSDAY. GIVEN MODEL DIFFERENCES...HAVE WORDED THE
FORECAST RAIN OR SNOW LIKELY ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THAT
SAID...WILL FAVOR THE WARMER ECMWF SOLUTION FOR THURSDAY...WHICH
WOULD MEAN A MAINLY RAIN EVENT ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY. FEEL
THE ECMWF HAS THE RIGHT IDEA WITH THIS...GIVEN THE FACT THAT BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS DO NOT HAVE A COLD HIGH PRESSURE AREA
OVER QUEBEC ON THURSDAY WHICH WOULD KEEP COLDER AIR IN PLACE OVER
THE REGION. ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE MILD FALL AND EARLY WINTER WE
HAVE HAD SO FAR ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...A SURFACE WARM FRNT CONTS TO PRODUCE PLENTY
OF CLOUDS ACRS OUR TAF SITES THIS AFTN...WITH RADAR SHOWING JUST A
FEW FLURRIES. VIS SATL PIC SHOWS CLRING SKIES ACRS CENTRAL
NY...TRYING TO MOVE TWD OUR REGION THIS AFTN. TAF CHALLENGE WL BE
AMOUNT OF LLVL MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL FOR MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
TONIGHT. RUC AND NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW PLENTY OF LLVL MOISTURE
DEVELOPING AFT 00Z THIS EVENING AS WARM AIR MOVES ACRS THE
RELATIVELY COLD/SNOW COVERED GROUND. IN ADDITION...SOME MELTING WL
ALSO ADD TO THE MOISTURE IN THE BL. WL MENTION MVFR CIGS AT MOST
TAF SITES...WITH BEST POTENTIAL FOR IFR AT MPV/SLK/MSS. AT MSS NE
SFC WINDS WL SHIFT TO THE SW BY 03Z THIS EVENING...AS SFC WARM
FRNT FINALLY LIFTS THRU THE SLV. ALSO...PATCHY AREAS OF
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE WL BE POSSIBLE...GIVEN AMOUNT OF LLVL
MOISTURE PROGGED TO BE ACRS OUR MTN SITES...BUT NO ICE
ACCUMULATION IS ANTICIPATING. IMPROVING CONDITIONS WL DEVELOP BY
14Z SATURDAY...WITH SOUTHERLY FLW OF 5 TO 15 KNTS.
OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
ON SATURDAY EVENING A SURFACE COLD FRNT WL PRODUCE SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS...WHICH WL CHANGE TO ALL SNOW BY LATE EVENING.
OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS FOR SEVERAL HRS WL BE POSSIBLE ON SAT
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY AT MPV/SLK. OTHERWISE...SFC HIGH PRES
AND VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL SUNDAY AFTN THRU TUESDAY.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...TABER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
1244 PM EST FRI JAN 6 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. MAINLY DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND...THOUGH SOME PERIODS OF
LIGHT PRECIPITATION ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSES NORTH OF
THE BORDER. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS
TODAY AND SATURDAY...AND RETURN BACK TO NORMAL FOR SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 921 AM EST FRIDAY...ALL STEADY LIGHT SNOW HAS COME TO AN END
ACROSS THE REGION WITH THIS MORNINGS SNOW LEAVING BEHIND A HALF
INCH TO LOCALLY TWO INCHES OF ACCUMULATION. HOWEVER WITH LINGERING
MOISTURE AND A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINING DRAPED ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND POCKETS OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION REMAIN. SOME ISOLATED AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION
AND MIST WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS BUT
AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT. WITH WARMING LOW LEVELS AND SHALLOW
MOISTURE...THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL IN THE FORM OF A LIGHT
DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE WITH A FLURRY OR TWO POSSIBLE. OVERALL
NOT A BIG DEAL BUT A VERY LIGHT GLAZE OF ICE POSSIBLE ON SOME SURFACES.
MOST OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE THROUGH
THE DAY WITH HIGHS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON CLIMBING INTO THE 30S IN
MOST LOCATIONS. SEEING A LOW LEVEL JET PASSING THROUGH THE REGION
CURRENTLY...SO SOME 20 KNOT GUSTS WILL BE SEEN THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 406 AM EST FRIDAY...CHANCES FOR SOME INTERMITTENT LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS
NORTH OF THE BORDER...THOUGH WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED AGAIN TO THE
NORTHERN ZONES. THE REGION REMAINS UNDER CLOUDY SKIES AND
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW SO EXPECT OVERNIGHT TEMPS TO BE QUITE
MILD...MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S. ATTENDING COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH
CONTINUE CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION. PTYPE FOR SATURDAY WILL
BE MAINLY RAIN WITH SOME SNOW TO START THE DAY AS TEMPS AGAIN WILL
BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH MOST LOCATIONS WARMING INTO THE UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S. IN ADDITION...SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL PROVIDE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LAKE ENHANCED PRECIP DOWNWIND
OF LAKE ONTARIO...THOUGH PROBABLY WON`T BE LONG LIVED AS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. DRY CONDITIONS AND MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM EST FRIDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOW WARM AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPING
ALOFT LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...AS ANOTHER WARM FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION. HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW
SHOWERS FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. ECMWF AND
GFS MODELS SHOW A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...WITH FAIR AND DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED.
ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOW A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE CAROLINAS
EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOW MOISTURE FROM THE LOW OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY AFTER MIDNIGHT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOOKS LIKE THE REGION WILL SEE SOME MIXED
PRECIPITATION DEVELOP LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING...AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW
FREEZING...BUT TEMPERATURES AT 850 MB WILL BE CLIMBING ABOVE ZERO
DEGREES CELSIUS. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS DIFFER WITH THE HANDLING OF
THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST...WITH THE GFS FASTER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE THEN THE ECMWF.
THE GFS MODEL WOULD KEEP A BIT COOLER ALOFT AT 850 MB THEN THE
ECMWF...AND WOULD IMPLY A CHANGE TO SNOW LATER IN THE DAY ON
THURSDAY ACROSS THE REGION. THE ECMWF IS WARMER THEN THE GFS MODEL
AT 850 MB ON THURSDAY AND WOULD IMPLY A MAINLY RAIN EVENT DURING
THE DAY ON THURSDAY. GIVEN MODEL DIFFERENCES...HAVE WORDED THE
FORECAST RAIN OR SNOW LIKELY ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THAT
SAID...WILL FAVOR THE WARMER ECMWF SOLUTION FOR THURSDAY...WHICH
WOULD MEAN A MAINLY RAIN EVENT ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY. FEEL
THE ECMWF HAS THE RIGHT IDEA WITH THIS...GIVEN THE FACT THAT BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS DO NOT HAVE A COLD HIGH PRESSURE AREA
OVER QUEBEC ON THURSDAY WHICH WOULD KEEP COLDER AIR IN PLACE OVER
THE REGION. ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE MILD FALL AND EARLY WINTER WE
HAVE HAD SO FAR ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...A SURFACE WARM FRNT CONTS TO PRODUCE PLENTY
OF CLOUDS ACRS OUR TAF SITES THIS AFTN...WITH RADAR SHOWING JUST A
FEW FLURRIES. VIS SATL PIC SHOWS CLRING SKIES ACRS CENTRAL
NY...TRYING TO MOVE TWD OUR REGION THIS AFTN. TAF CHALLENGE WL BE
AMOUNT OF LLVL MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL FOR MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
TONIGHT. RUC AND NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW PLENTY OF LLVL MOISTURE
DEVELOPING AFT 00Z THIS EVENING AS WARM AIR MOVES ACRS THE
RELATIVELY COLD/SNOW COVERED GROUND. IN ADDITION...SOME MELTING WL
ALSO ADD TO THE MOISTURE IN THE BL. WL MENTION MVFR CIGS AT MOST
TAF SITES...WITH BEST POTENTIAL FOR IFR AT MPV/SLK/MSS. AT MSS NE
SFC WINDS WL SHIFT TO THE SW BY 03Z THIS EVENING...AS SFC WARM
FRNT FINALLY LIFTS THRU THE SLV. ALSO...PATCHY AREAS OF
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE WL BE POSSIBLE...GIVEN AMOUNT OF LLVL
MOISTURE PROGGED TO BE ACRS OUR MTN SITES...BUT NO ICE
ACCUMULATION IS ANTICIPATING. IMPROVING CONDITIONS WL DEVELOP BY
14Z SATURDAY...WITH SOUTHERLY FLW OF 5 TO 15 KNTS.
OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
ON SATURDAY EVENING A SURFACE COLD FRNT WL PRODUCE SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS...WHICH WL CHANGE TO ALL SNOW BY LATE EVENING.
OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS FOR SEVERAL HRS WL BE POSSIBLE ON SAT
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY AT MPV/SLK. OTHERWISE...SFC HIGH PRES
AND VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL SUNDAY AFTN THRU TUESDAY.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...TABER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
1234 PM EST FRI JAN 6 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. MAINLY DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND...THOUGH SOME PERIODS OF
LIGHT PRECIPITATION ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSES NORTH OF
THE BORDER. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS
TODAY AND SATURDAY...AND RETURN BACK TO NORMAL FOR SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 921 AM EST FRIDAY...MAIN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH
A WARM FRONT HAS PASSED THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION WITH A
GENERAL ACCUMULATION FROM A HALF INCH TO 2 INCHES. LIGHT SNOW WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
WITH STEADY PRECIPITATION GENERALLY OVER BY NOON. HOWEVER WITH
LINGERING MOISTURE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINING DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY...CLOUDS AND AREAS OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM. WITH WARMING LOW LEVELS AND
SHALLOW MOISTURE...MOST PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BE IN THE FORM
OF LIGHT DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE WITH A FEW FLURRIES STILL
POSSIBLE AS WELL. NOT A BIG DEAL...BUT A LIGHT GLAZE ON SOME
SURFACES IS POSSIBLE. CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT SHOULD BE
MOSTLY DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE THROUGH THE DAY WITH HIGHS LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON RANGING FROM NEAR 30 IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM TO
THE MID AND UPPER 30S IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS.
A LOW LEVEL JET WILL ALSO PASS THROUGH THE REGION WITH THE FRONTAL
ZONE...SO SOME GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE IN THE LATE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...ESPECIALLY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 406 AM EST FRIDAY...CHANCES FOR SOME INTERMITTENT LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS
NORTH OF THE BORDER...THOUGH WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED AGAIN TO THE
NORTHERN ZONES. THE REGION REMAINS UNDER CLOUDY SKIES AND
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW SO EXPECT OVERNIGHT TEMPS TO BE QUITE
MILD...MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S. ATTENDING COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH
CONTINUE CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION. PTYPE FOR SATURDAY WILL
BE MAINLY RAIN WITH SOME SNOW TO START THE DAY AS TEMPS AGAIN WILL
BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH MOST LOCATIONS WARMING INTO THE UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S. IN ADDITION...SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL PROVIDE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LAKE ENHANCED PRECIP DOWNWIND
OF LAKE ONTARIO...THOUGH PROBABLY WON`T BE LONG LIVED AS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. DRY CONDITIONS AND MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM EST FRIDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOW WARM AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPING
ALOFT LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...AS ANOTHER WARM FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION. HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW
SHOWERS FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. ECMWF AND
GFS MODELS SHOW A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...WITH FAIR AND DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED.
ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOW A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE CAROLINAS
EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOW MOISTURE FROM THE LOW OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY AFTER MIDNIGHT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOOKS LIKE THE REGION WILL SEE SOME MIXED
PRECIPITATION DEVELOP LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING...AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW
FREEZING...BUT TEMPERATURES AT 850 MB WILL BE CLIMBING ABOVE ZERO
DEGREES CELSIUS. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS DIFFER WITH THE HANDLING OF
THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST...WITH THE GFS FASTER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE THEN THE ECMWF.
THE GFS MODEL WOULD KEEP A BIT COOLER ALOFT AT 850 MB THEN THE
ECMWF...AND WOULD IMPLY A CHANGE TO SNOW LATER IN THE DAY ON
THURSDAY ACROSS THE REGION. THE ECMWF IS WARMER THEN THE GFS MODEL
AT 850 MB ON THURSDAY AND WOULD IMPLY A MAINLY RAIN EVENT DURING
THE DAY ON THURSDAY. GIVEN MODEL DIFFERENCES...HAVE WORDED THE
FORECAST RAIN OR SNOW LIKELY ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THAT
SAID...WILL FAVOR THE WARMER ECMWF SOLUTION FOR THURSDAY...WHICH
WOULD MEAN A MAINLY RAIN EVENT ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY. FEEL
THE ECMWF HAS THE RIGHT IDEA WITH THIS...GIVEN THE FACT THAT BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS DO NOT HAVE A COLD HIGH PRESSURE AREA
OVER QUEBEC ON THURSDAY WHICH WOULD KEEP COLDER AIR IN PLACE OVER
THE REGION. ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE MILD FALL AND EARLY WINTER WE
HAVE HAD SO FAR ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...A SURFACE WARM FRNT CONTS TO PRODUCE PLENTY
OF CLOUDS ACRS OUR TAF SITES THIS AFTN...WITH RADAR SHOWING JUST A
FEW FLURRIES. VIS SATL PIC SHOWS CLRING SKIES ACRS CENTRAL
NY...TRYING TO MOVE TWD OUR REGION THIS AFTN. TAF CHALLENGE WL BE
AMOUNT OF LLVL MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL FOR MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
TONIGHT. RUC AND NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW PLENTY OF LLVL MOISTURE
DEVELOPING AFT 00Z THIS EVENING AS WARM AIR MOVES ACRS THE
RELATIVELY COLD/SNOW COVERED GROUND. IN ADDITION...SOME MELTING WL
ALSO ADD TO THE MOISTURE IN THE BL. WL MENTION MVFR CIGS AT MOST
TAF SITES...WITH BEST POTENTIAL FOR IFR AT MPV/SLK/MSS. AT MSS NE
SFC WINDS WL SHIFT TO THE SW BY 03Z THIS EVENING...AS SFC WARM
FRNT FINALLY LIFTS THRU THE SLV. ALSO...PATCHY AREAS OF
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE WL BE POSSIBLE...GIVEN AMOUNT OF LLVL
MOISTURE PROGGED TO BE ACRS OUR MTN SITES...BUT NO ICE
ACCUMULATION IS ANTICIPATING. IMPROVING CONDITIONS WL DEVELOP BY
14Z SATURDAY...WITH SOUTHERLY FLW OF 5 TO 15 KNTS.
OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
ON SATURDAY EVENING A SURFACE COLD FRNT WL PRODUCE SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS...WHICH WL CHANGE TO ALL SNOW BY LATE EVENING.
OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS FOR SEVERAL HRS WL BE POSSIBLE ON SAT
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY AT MPV/SLK. OTHERWISE...SFC HIGH PRES
AND VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL SUNDAY AFTN THRU TUESDAY.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...TABER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NWS RAPID CITY SD
217 PM MST FRI JAN 6 2012
.DISCUSSION...
VERY FLAT LONG WAVE RIDGE IS AT ABOUT 125W THIS MORNING WITH
LARGELY ZONAL FLOW FROM THE DATE LINE TO THE EAST COAST OF THE US.
SHORT WAVE TROFS WERE NEAR LAKE WG AND SOUTH WEST WARD AND
APPROACHING THE WEST COAST OF CANADA. LONG WAVE RIDGE WILL REBUILD
AS THE SHORT WAVE TROF MOVES EAST WARD...SPLITTING INTO TWO PARTS.
THE SOUTHERN PORTION HEADS FOR AZ/NM WHILE THE NORTHERN PORTION
MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND LARGELY SHEARS OUT.
THE 1000 TO 500 MB MEAN TEMPERATURE ANOMALY AT RAPID CITY THIS
MORNING IS ABOUT +3C WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS OVER NORTH
WEST MT. THE ONLY REALLY COLD AIR LIES OVER WESTERN AK.
THE NORTHERN SHORT WAVE TROF CROSSES OUR AREA SUNDAY AM WITH
LITTLE INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER.
BRISK WINDS HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES DOWN TODAY...BUT WILL BE QUICK
TO DIE OFF THIS EVENING AS PRESSURES RISE TO THE EAST AND BEGIN TO
FALL A BIT TO THE WEST CUTTING BACK ON THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE QUICK TO FALL DURING THE EVENING HOURS...BUT INCREASING
MOISTURE EVIDENT ON THE WATER VAPOR LOOP AND A BIT OF WARM
ADVECTION AT 700 MB WILL LEAD TO SOME INCREASE IN HIGH AND MID
CLOUDINESS LATER TONIGHT LIKELY SLOWING TEMPERATURE FALLS EARLY AM.
BOTH NAM AND RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE
AND CLOUDINESS.
DRYING IS SHOWN ON THE SOUNDINGS LATE SATURDAY EVENING IN SPITE OF
APPROACH OF THE SHORT WAVE TROF. SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN QUITE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
EXTENDED...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CROSSES THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH
TUESDAY. STRONG UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE AREA TUESDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS SEEM TO BE TRENDING EARLIER WITH THE
TIMING...SO WILL WATCH FOR POP ADJUSTMENTS. SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST
QUICKLY WITH AREA REMAINING UNDER FAST NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH
MIDWEEK. BOTH GFS AND EC TRY TO BUILD WESTERN RIDGE BACK ACROSS THE
ROCKIES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...00Z TAFS
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BARBER
LONG TERM....CALDERON
AVIATION...CALDERON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ABERDEEN SD
1146 AM CST FRI JAN 6 2012
.UPDATE...
UPDATED GOING FORECAST TO BUMP UP AFTERNOON HIGHS BY SEVERAL
DEGREES THROUGHOUT THE CWA. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO RISE RAPIDLY
AT ALL OBSERVING LOCATIONS DESPITE WEAK CAA. LOW ALBEDO/LACK OF
SNOW COVER IS COMBINING WITH SIGNIFICANT VERTICAL MIXING DUE TO
THE MODERATE WEST WIND TO ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB A DEGREE OR TWO
EVERY HOUR. SEVERAL SPOTS NOW EXPECTED TO REACH OR SLIGHTLY EXCEED
THEIR DAILY HIGH TEMP RECORDS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE BELOW
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY
THE FORECAST CHALLENGE IS TEMPERATURE.
CURRENTLY...LOW LEVEL CAA IS OCCURRING. 925HPA TEMPS HAVE FALLEN 5C
TO 10C DEGREES OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. TEMPERATURES ARE STEADY OR
SLOWLY FALLING MAINLY THROUGH THE 30S AMID A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY.
0.5KM WIND SPEEDS /PER RUC MODEL/ ARE 25 TO 40 KNOTS EARLY THIS
MORNING.
LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE CONTINUING TO COOL TODAY DOWN TO A
RANGE OF GENERALLY 0C TO +3C...WHICH IS ROUGHLY A 10C TO 15C DROP
IN 925HPA TEMPERATURES IN 24 HOURS. DIFFERENT FROM PREVIOUS DAYS
WHEN 0.5KM WIND SPEEDS WERE BETWEEN 25 AND 40 KNOTS...WIND SPEEDS
THAT STRONG TODAY WILL BE MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE MUCH MORE
EFFICIENTLY WHILE LOW LEVEL CAA IS ONGOING. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15
TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS IS EXPECTED. HEADING INTO SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...-2C TO +4C AIR AT 925HPA IS PROGGED TO RESIDE OVER THE
CWA. SO...BASICALLY LOOKING AT SIMILAR TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT
THREE DAYS...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S THROUGH THE MID 40S.
THE DRY FORECAST UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT ALSO PERSISTS THROUGH
SUNDAY...EVEN THOUGH A FEW SUBTLE S/W TROFS APPEAR TO WORK ACROSS
THE REGION.
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
THE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT DURING THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...WITH JUST SOME DIFFERENCES CONCERNING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT. LOOKING AT ANOTHER DECENT WARM UP EARLY IN
THE PERIOD AS THE REGION WILL BE UNDER UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW
AND ON THE WAA SIDE OF A SURFACE TROUGH. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
40S LOOK TO BE COMMON BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE SURFACE
TROUGH/FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING AS AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE SLIDES FROM CENTRAL CANADA TO THE GREAT LAKES BY
THURSDAY MORNING. THE BEST ENERGY LOOKS TO AFFECT THE CWA TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. MODEL TIME SECTIONS SHOW PRETTY GOOD
LIFT...BUT NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF LOWER TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE.
THE GFS IS THE LEAST AGGRESSIVE MODEL WITH THE PRECIPITATION...WHILE
THE ECMWF INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR AN INCH OR SO OF
ACCUMULATION. TOO MANY DIFFERENCES RIGHT NOW...SO WILL JUST STICK
WITH THE ALLBLEND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES
IN BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM...AND LOOKS TO BRING MUCH COOLER AIR
THAN WE HAVE SEEN RECENTLY BACK TO THE REGION. H85 TEMPS FALL INTO
THE -6 TO -19 DEGREE RANGE ON WEDNESDAY...AND REMAIN COLD INTO THE
DAY THURSDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL TAF SITES THROUGH AT
LEAST 1Z. HOWEVER LOW CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL
TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD TONIGHT. THESE LOW CLOUDS MAY PRODUCE MVFR
CIGS IN KABR/KATY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CHURCH
SHORT TERM...DORN
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...SD
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
341 PM CST FRI JAN 6 2012
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
241 PM CST FRI JAN 6 2012
AT 3 PM...A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM SAULT STE MARIE MICHIGAN
TO LUBBOCK TEXAS. WITH THE AIR MASS BEING OF PACIFIC ORIGIN...
THERE WAS ONLY A SLIGHT DECREASE IN THE TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE
FRONT. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA WERE MAINLY IN THE 40S TODAY.
IF IT WERE NOT FOR THE EXTENSIVE MID CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA...
TEMPERATURES MAY HAVE CLIMBED A FEW MORE DEGREES. WHERE SKIES HAVE
BEEN CLEARING /NORTH OF A DODGE CENTER MINNESOTA TO ESCANABA
MICHIGAN LINE/...TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED A COUPLE OF DEGREES...
SO MAY CLIMB A FEW MORE DEGREES IN THE AREAS THAT CLEAR OUT LATE
THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT...06.12Z MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA. LIKE ITS PREDECESSOR...THIS
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION DRY. BEHIND THIS FRONT...
THERE WILL BE ANOTHER SLIGHT DROP IN TEMPERATURES. 925 MB
TEMPERATURES DROP FROM 2 TO 6C AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO -2 TO -6C
BEHIND THIS FRONT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL FALL OFF INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 20S. THIS IS ABOUT 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN OUR NORMAL DAILY
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. IN ADDITION TO THE COOLER
TEMPERATURES...SOME LOW CLOUDS ARE MOVING SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
AREA. WITH THEIR CURRENT TRAJECTORY...THINKING THAT THE BEST
CHANCE OF SEEING THESE CLOUDS WILL BE NORTHEAST OF A LAKE CITY
MINNESOTA TO THE WISCONSIN DELLS. THERE MAY BE EVEN A PERIOD OF
LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR.
HOWEVER NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.
ON SATURDAY...CLOUDS WILL LINGER ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE
94 CORRIDOR DURING THE MORNING AND GRADUALLY CLEAR DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF THESE CLOUDS AND THE COOL 925 MB
TEMPERATURES WILL KEEP THESE TEMPERATURES IN THESE AREAS CONFINED
TO THE LOWER AND MID 30S. MEANWHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
WILL SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.
ON SUNDAY NIGHT...A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
REGION. THE 925 MB TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB FROM -2 TO -4C AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT TO 0 TO 4C BEHIND THIS FRONT. COLDEST TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE EVENING AND THEN EITHER REMAIN STEADY OR
SLOWLY CLIMB DURING THE OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT...WENT WITH A NON
DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
241 PM CST FRI JAN 6 2012
FROM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...925 MB TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM
4 TO 8C. THIS IS JUST A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN THEY WERE
YESTERDAY. AS A RESULT...EXPECT TO SEE A RETURN TO MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. CURRENTLY WENT WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON BOTH
DAYS IN THE 40S...BUT WOULD NOT BE TOO SURPRISED THAT WE MAY SEE
ANOTHER ROUND OF 50 DEGREE TEMPERATURES.
ON WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER AIR PATTERN SHIFT BEGIN AS THE PACIFIC
NORTH AMERICAN /PNA/ TELECONNECTION BECOMES POSITIVE /WESTERN U.S.
RIDGE AND EASTERN U.S. TROUGH/. THIS WILL ALLOW MUCH COLDER AIR TO
SPILL SOUTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA. UNLIKE THE 06.00Z
ECMWF WHERE IT SHOWED DECENT PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A
CLOSED LOW...A MAJORITY OF 06.12Z NOW SUGGEST THAT THIS FRONT WILL
HAVE VERY LITTLE MOISTURE TO PRODUCE MUCH PRECIPITATION
THE TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL BE INTI ALLY BELOW
NORMAL AND THEN WARM UP CLOSER TO NORMAL AS THE AIR MASS GRADUALLY
MODERATES. UNLIKE THE NEW YEARS FRONT...THIS COLD AIR MAY PERSIST
FOR SEVERAL INTO MID JANUARY. AS THE TROPICAL FORCING MOVES INTO
THE INDIAN OCEAN FROM THE AFRICAN CONTINENT...EXPECT TO ONCE AGAIN
SEE THE POLAR JET RETREAT BACK INTO SOUTHERN CANADA BRINGING A
RETURN TO THE UNSEASONABLE FOR THE LATTER PART OF JANUARY.
&&
.AVIATION...THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY
1135 AM CST FRI JAN 6 2012
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST AWAY FROM THE
AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. A VEIL OF HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE TAF SITES
WILL PUSH SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. BIGGEST CHALLENGE WILL
COME LATER THIS EVENING WHEN MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME STRATUS
DROPPING IN BEHIND A SURFACE TROUGH. CURRENTLY THESE CLOUDS ARE
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA/NORTHERN MINNESOTA. BOTH THE 06.15Z RUC AND
THE 06.12Z GFS AND NAM SHOWING THIS MOISTURE DROPPING SOUTHEAST
THIS EVENING. FEEL THE BETTER CHANCES FOR THE CLOUDS MAY EXIST TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE TAF SITES BASED ON RELATIVE HUMIDITY
PROGS...BUT DID INTRODUCE A FEW-SCT DECK AT KRST AND KLSE
RESPECTIVELY WITH HEIGHTS OF 025K-030K FEET. THESE SHOULD ARRIVE
BETWEEN 04Z-06Z THIS EVENING AND PERSIST THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY.
LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE CEILINGS.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
241 PM CST FRI JAN 6 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...RABERDING
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1135 AM CST FRI JAN 6 2012
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
215 AM CST FRI JAN 6 2012
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES IN THIS ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURE PATTERN.
CURRENTLY AS OF 08Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED WEAK RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE U.S. AND BRITISH
COLUMBIA...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER MONTANA...THEN NEARLY ZONAL FLOW
FROM THE DAKOTAS EASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND. AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...A 90-110 KT JET WAS PRESENT FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO UPPER
MICHIGAN. THIS JET COMBINED WITH A STREAM OF PACIFIC MOISTURE IS
HELPING TO PRODUCE SCATTERED-BROKEN CIRRUS FROM SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NEBRASKA NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. MOISTURE VERY HARD
TO COME BY BELOW THIS CIRRUS...NOTED BY 10C OR HIGHER DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS FROM THE SURFACE TO 500MB ON 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM
MPX...ABR AND BIS. 850MB TEMPS ON THESE SOUNDINGS RANGED FROM AROUND
10C AT ABR AND MPX...WHILE A COOLER READING OF 7C WAS REPORTED AT
BIS. BIS WAS LOCATED BEHIND A COLD FRONT WHICH CURRENTLY EXTENDS
FROM DES MOINES IOWA INTO NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. 925MB VAD WIND PROFILER
DATA DEPICTS 30-40 KT NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
DESPITE THIS COLD ADVECTION...THE WINDS IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE
CLOUDS AND GENERALLY MILD AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT...HAS HELPED TO
KEEP TEMPERATURES UP IN THE 30S AND INTO THE LOW 40S.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER MONTANA IS FORECAST BY ALL
MODELS TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...THOUGH THE CRUX OF
THE TROUGH LOOKS TO AFFECT UPPER MICHIGAN. AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES
THE AREA TODAY...THE UPPER JET STREAK SEEN AHEAD OF IT WILL SLOWLY
SINK TO THE SOUTHEAST...AND THEREFORE SO WILL THE SCATTERED-BROKEN
CIRRUS. ALONG WITH THE SLOW DECREASE IN CLOUDS FROM THE NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST...THE APPROACH OF THE TROUGH ALONG WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
CURRENT COLD FRONT MEANS COLD ADVECTION TODAY. STILL...THE COLD
ADVECTION IS GRADUAL...NOTED BY 925MB TEMPS WHICH START OFF AT 6-8C
AT 12Z AND ONLY FALL TO 1-4C BY 00Z. SUNSHINE THROUGH THE HIGH
CLOUDS...WINDS TO HELP WITH MIXING...MOSTLY A LACK OF SNOW EXCEPT
NORTH OF I-94...AND A WARM START OFF SHOULD YIELD ANOTHER WELL ABOVE
NORMAL DAY TODAY. MOST AREAS SHOULD AT LEAST SEE HIGHS IN THE 40S
WITH SOME LOCATIONS REACHING INTO THE LOWER 50S. A LITTLE COOLER AIR
COMES IN TONIGHT WITH 925MB TEMPS FALLING TO -2 TO -5C BY 12Z
SATURDAY. SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY ACCOMPANY THIS COOLING AND DROP DOWN
INTO NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...BUT NO LIFT IS PRESENT WITHIN THE
CLOUD LAYER TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION. GENERALLY FOLLOWED A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE FOR LOWS.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT IS PROGGED TO SCOOT OFF TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY...LEAVING
THE AREA IN WEAK BROAD TROUGHING. THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMING THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...IN ADVANCE
OF RIDGING BUILDING UP ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO SOUTHWEST
CANADA. NONE OF THESE FEATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ANY
PRECIPITATION...DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF TOO MUCH DRY AIR. THERE WILL
BE PERIODS OF CLOUDS AFFECTING THE AREA...HOWEVER. THE FIRST IS
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-94...WHERE LOW CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THESE CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL
COOLING LEFT BEHIND FROM TONIGHTS SHORTWAVE TROUGH. ANTICIPATING
THESE CLOUDS TO CLEAR OUT ON SUNDAY AS WARM/DRY ADVECTION SURGES IN
FROM THE PLAINS. THIS SAME ADVECTION ON THE OTHER HAND DOES LOOK
TO PRODUCE SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS...MAINLY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 2/3 OF THE AREA. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR OUT
SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. REGARDING
TEMPERATURES...925MB READINGS ARE PROGGED TO HOLD FAIRLY STEADY
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...BETWEEN -2 AND -6C...THEN SLOWLY START
RISING TO AROUND 0C BY 12Z MONDAY AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMES
THROUGH. THIS MEANS THE WEEKEND WILL BE COOLER...BUT STILL ABOVE
NORMAL. A BLEND OF GUIDANCE WITH A LEAN TOWARDS THE ECMWF SEEMS
APPROPRIATE...SINCE THE ECMWF HAS BEEN DOING WELL IN THIS ABOVE
NORMAL PATTERN.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
215 AM CST FRI JAN 6 2012
06.00Z ECMWF/GFS/CANADIAN AND GFS ENSEMBLES REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH PREVIOUS RUNS AND WITH EACH OTHER ON THE UPCOMING WEATHER
PATTERN FOR NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES FOR THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...BUT IN GENERAL THEY DEPICT A WELL AGREED UPON
PATTERN. MONDAY AND TUESDAY FEATURE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH
AGAIN...IN RESPONSE TO THE BUILDING RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES ON SUNDAY NIGHT BEING FLATTENED AND SENT EASTWARD THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA. 925MB TEMPS RESPOND BY JUMPING FROM THE 0C AT 12Z
MONDAY TO 2-4C AT 00Z TUESDAY...THEN HOVERING AROUND THOSE LEVELS
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST WITH
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO ECMWF PROGGED VALUES. PATTERN CHANGES COME
LATER TUESDAY AS A POTENT TROUGH DIGS DOWN INTO ALBERTA AND
SASKATCHEWAN. THIS TROUGH ALL MODELS HAVE DIGGING DOWN INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BUT AGAIN THE TIMING
VARIES. THE 06.00Z GFS/GFS ENSEMBLES/CANADIAN ALL BRING IT INTO THE
FORECAST AREA LATE WEDNESDAY...WHEREAS THE 05.12Z ECMWF STILL HAS IT
BACK OVER THE DAKOTAS AT THE SAME TIME. FOR NOW HAVE FOLLOWED A
CONSENSUS BLEND UNTIL THE TIMING CAN SORT ITSELF OUT. 850MB TEMPS
PLUMMET WITHIN THE TROUGH...DROPPING TO -12 TO PERHAPS AS COLD AS
-20C UNDER THE CORE OF IT. SO CERTAINLY MORE WINTER LIKE AIR WILL
END UP MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA. PRECIPITATION ON THE OTHER
HAND IS MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN...DUE TO MOST OF THE MOISTURE TRAPPED
WITH A SYSTEM TRACKING ALONG THE GULF COAST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES. THERE IS SOME AGREEMENT ON A BAND OF DEFORMATION AND DPVA
FORCED PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...BUT UNCERTAINTIES ON
TIMING AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE RESULT IN NO HIGHER THAN 20-30 PERCENT
CHANCES AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY
1135 AM CST FRI JAN 6 2012
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST AWAY FROM THE
AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. A VEIL OF HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE TAF SITES
WILL PUSH SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. BIGGEST CHALLENGE WILL
COME LATER THIS EVENING WHEN MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME STRATUS
DROPPING IN BEHIND A SURFACE TROUGH. CURRENTLY THESE CLOUDS ARE
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA/NORTHERN MINNESOTA. BOTH THE 06.15Z RUC AND
THE 06.12Z GFS AND NAM SHOWING THIS MOISTURE DROPPING SOUTHEAST
THIS EVENING. FEEL THE BETTER CHANCES FOR THE CLOUDS MAY EXIST TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE TAF SITES BASED ON RELATIVE HUMIDITY
PROGS...BUT DID INTRODUCE A FEW-SCT DECK AT KRST AND KLSE
RESPECTIVELY WITH HEIGHTS OF 025K-030K FEET. THESE SHOULD ARRIVE
BETWEEN 04Z-06Z THIS EVENING AND PERSIST THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY.
LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE CEILINGS.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
215 AM CST FRI JAN 6 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM....AJ
AVIATION...RABERDING