Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 01/05/12
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
1220 AM EST TUE JAN 3 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION THROUGH
TUESDAY AS A STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE CENTER DIVES SOUTHEAST
TOWARDS THE REGION. MODERATING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED LATE WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
01Z UPDATE...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS SWINGING SOUTH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. THIS CAN BE SEEN WITHIN THE IR
SATELLITE AS SCATTERED INSTABILITY CLOUDS ARE NOW SHIFTING ACROSS
NORTHERN GA AND NORTHERN AND CENTRAL SC. UPDATED THE SKY GRIDS TO
REFLECT SOME CLOUDS THIS EVENING THEN CLEARING OUT AGAIN AFTER THE
TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH. USED RUC GUIDANCE THEN MASSAGED TOWARD
SATELLITE TRENDS. ALSO SLOWED DOWN FALLING TEMPS THIS EVENING
BASED ON CURRENT OBS BUT LOWS ARE UNCHANGED.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE COUNTRY. MODELS SHOW AXIS WILL PASS OVER FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT AND BE ALONG THE COAST BY MORNING. AT THE SURFACE A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS ACROSS EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTY
BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC CANADA AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. STRONG COLD ADVECTION OCCURRING OVER
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT UNDER NORTHWEST WINDS.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE BELOW A QUARTER INCH AND THIS VERY
DRY AIR MASS WILL PREVENT ANY PRECIPITATION. STILL EXPECT LOWS TO
FALL INTO THE MID 20S. LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT.
LATEST OBS FROM AREA LAKES REPORTING GUSTS 15 TO 25 KTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST...WITH DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS. NW FLOW ALOFT BRINGING IN COLD AND DRIER AIR.
PREFER LOWER GFS MOS DEWPOINTS FOR TUESDAY GIVEN LOW LEVEL
NORTHWEST WINDS/DOWNSLOPE FLOW. SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER
WIND...COLD AIR ADVECTION...AND ENHANCED MIXING OVER MUCH WARMER
LAKE WATER TEMPS WILL PROVIDE BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUING ON AREA
LAKES MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. HAVE EXTENDED THE LAKE WIND
ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON SINCE 12Z MODELS SUGGEST A
LITTLE MORE WIND. HIGH PRESSURE CENTER TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT/WED...WITH APPEARANCE OF GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. SINCE VERY DRY AIR IS
EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE...WILL LEAN A LITTLE LOWER THAN MODEL
GUIDANCE ON MIN TEMPS FOR TUE NIGHT...IN LINE WITH LOCAL RADIATION
SCHEME WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE OF WIDESPREAD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN
THE TEENS. WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY BUT AIR MASS MAY
NOT MODIFY TOO QUICKLY SO PREFER COOLER ENSEMBLE MEAN GUIDANCE AND
TEMPERATURES REMAINING MAINLY IN THE 40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DID NOT MAKE ANY REAL SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE LONG TERM.
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO NEAR NORMAL BY THURSDAY...THEN ABOVE
NORMAL AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WILL SEE
THE FLATTENING OF THE UPPER FLOW...AND WEAK RIDGING AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM. COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE. LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT
ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/GULF COAST SUNDAY/MONDAY AND TRACK
TOWARD THE CAROLINAS INCREASING THE THREAT FOR RAIN. THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY THE ECMWF AND TO A LESSER EXTENT...GFS.
AN APPROACHING FRONT WILL HELP TO INCREASE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE BY
THE WEEKEND. CONTINUED WITH INCREASED POPS AND WARM TEMPS DUE TO
STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD
FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD. BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT AS A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVES IN. AN UPPER
TROUGH CURRENTLY PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA WILL PROVIDE SOME MID
LEVEL CLOUDINESS EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED DUE TO VERY DRY LOW LEVEL AIR. NO FOG DUE TO
DRY AIR.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EXPECTED.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT UNDER WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES FROM THIS AFTERNOON DROPPED TO AROUND 20 PERCENT. RH WILL
BE EVEN LOWER TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AROUND 15 PERCENT. WINDY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. FUEL MOISTURE IS MARGINAL THOUGH
AND THE COLD TEMPERATURES ARE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR WILDFIRE
DEVELOPMENT. SPC FIRE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS GREATER THREAT REMAINS
SOUTH OF THE REGION.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR SCZ015-016-
018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR GAZ040-
063>065-077.
&&
$$
AVIATION...DCM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
925 AM EST TUE JAN 3 2012
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW SHOWERS WILL END OVER NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA
BY MIDDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN COLD TODAY WITH MANY LOCATIONS REMAINING IN THE 20S. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING WILL EXPAND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK...BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
SKIES HAVE BEEN CLEAR FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT ACROSS ALL BUT
NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE THE VEERING LOW LEVEL
FLOW HAS ENABLED EDGES OF THE LAKE EFFECT BANDS TO REACH DOWN INTO
AREAS EAST OF KOKOMO AND ANDERSON. WINDS HAVE STEADILY WEAKENED OVER
THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS WITH MAX GUSTS GENERALLY NO HIGHER THAN
20MPH. TEMPERATURES AT 08Z WERE IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S.
FOCUS REMAINS ON THE CONTINUATION OF SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OVER
NORTHEAST COUNTIES BEFORE FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL FLOW COLLAPSES BY
MIDDAY. HAVE RELIED ON HRRR AND RUC INITIALLY THIS MORNING WITH
RESPECT TO LOCATION OF SNOW BANDS.
RADAR MOSAIC OVER THE REGION HAS SHOWN A SLOW DECLINE IN SNOW BAND
INTENSITY ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WEAKEN.
THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS WIND
SPEEDS BETWEEN 925MB AND 800MB DROP TO 15-20MPH. THIS WILL MAKE IT
INCREASING MORE DIFFICULT FOR THE STEADIER BANDS TO MAKE IT INTO
NORTHEAST COUNTIES AND A NOTED DECREASE IN SNOWFALL INTENSITY AND
COVERAGE SHOULD OCCUR OVER THE NEXT 3-5 HOURS. AS THE MORNING
PROGRESSES...ARRIVAL OF THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL FURTHER WEAKEN
LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH WINDS BACKING TO A MORE W/NW DIRECTION BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. WILL CARRY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES EAST OF A
KOKOMO-ANDERSON-NEW CASTLE LINE THROUGH MIDDAY WITH ANY LEFTOVER
FLURRIES SHIFTING NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THEREAFTER AS WINDS
BACK. ISOLATED ACCUMULATIONS OF A COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH CANNOT BE
RULED OUT EARLY THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER DELAWARE AND RANDOLPH
COUNTIES. WILL FRESHEN SPS TO HIGHLIGHT.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
THE EXPANSION OF SAID HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE INTO THE REGION. RUC/NAM
BOTH SUGGESTIVE OF SOME DIURNAL CU DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING WITH LOW
LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH ALIGNED JUST EAST OF THE REGION. HOWEVER AS
WINDS BACK AND DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST
SHOULD SEE SKIES BECOME MAINLY SUNNY FOR THE AFTERNOON. EXCEPTION
WILL BE OVER NORTHEAST COUNTIES WHERE COLDEST BOUNDARY LAYER
CONDITIONS MAY ENABLE CLOUDS TO LINGER THROUGH MID AFTERNOON BEFORE
DIMINISHING.
TEMPS...DESPITE THE POTENTIAL FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TODAY...WARM
ADVECTION DOES NOT REALLY COMMENCES UNTIL LATE DAY. COMBINED WITH
POOR MIXING LEVELS TO ONLY ABOUT 2KFT THIS AFTERNOON...MANY
LOCATIONS WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO CLIMB OUT OF THE 20S. TRENDED MUCH
CLOSER TO COOLER MAVMOS GUIDANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON TEMPS AND CLOUDS IN AN OTHERWISE BENIGN
PERIOD. MODEL GUIDANCE IS SIMILAR ON MAIN FEATURES THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM AND HAVE TAKEN A BLEND.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE PERIOD AND THE EXPANSION OF A
BROAD UPPER RIDGE BY THURSDAY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BOTH BE KEY
FEATURES IN KEEPING WEATHER DRY OVER CENTRAL INDIANA WITH A
TEMPERATURE RECOVERY BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD. TWO WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL PASS NORTH OF THE
REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BOTH OF
THESE FEATURES WILL BRING A PERIOD OF INCREASED MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS OVER MAINLY NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRATOCU DEVELOPMENT WEDNESDAY AS QUICK SHOT OF
COLD ADVECTION FOLLOWS IN WAKE OF THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE PASSAGE
ALOFT. THE EXPANSION OF THE UPPER RIDGE INTO THE REGION BY THURSDAY
WILL ENABLE A MORE SUBSTANTIAL PUSH OF MILDER AIR INTO CENTRAL
INDIANA ALONG WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. DRY
WEATHER WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT AS MID
LEVEL HEIGHTS FURTHER RISE OVER THE REGION.
TEMPS...LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE REACHED DURING THE EVENING AS WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE ENABLES STEADY OR SLOWLY
RISING TEMPS THROUGH THE 20S THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. TRENDED
TOWARDS COOLER MET GUIDANCE WEDNESDAY AS POTENTIAL FOR STRATOCU
DEVELOPMENT MENTIONED ABOVE MAY STUNT TEMP RISES A BIT. LEANED
TOWARDS MAVMOS GUIDANCE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 40S THURSDAY AS LOW LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PUMPS WARMER AIR INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS ARE STILL SUPPORTING A DRY EXTENDED FORECAST. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ARE STILL PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SATURDAY...BUT MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE
LACKING. PLUS...THE ONLY GULF MOISTURE THAT WILL BE ADVECTED AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WILL BE AFTER IT/S THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA. SO...REMOVED
MENTION OF POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF FORECAST AREA ON
SATURDAY. BEYOND THAT...MODELS HAVE FALLEN OUT OF AGREEMENT IN
REGARD TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
ORIGINALLY...THEY BOTH INDICATED A TRACK ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH.
HOWEVER...THE EURO IS PULLING IT MUCH FURTHER SOUTH NOW...WHILE THE
GFS IS SHOWING A VERY BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER MUCH OF THE OHIO
AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...AND DOWN INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. AS A
RESULT...WILL NOT DEVIATE FROM DRY INITIALIZATION NUMBERS WITH THIS
MUCH INCONSISTENCY.
TEMPS...TRENDED FRIDAY/S HIGHS ON THE WARMER SIDE WITH DECENT
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT...AND BUMPED UP
FRIDAY NIGHT/S LOWS A FEW DEGREES AS WELL TO ACCOUNT FOR INCREASED
CLOUD COVER. OTHERWISE...STUCK WITH INITIALIZATION NUMBERS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF EXTENDED PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 03/15Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
MINOR CHANGES MADE TO KIND TAF PER OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE...NO
OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FOR ENTIRE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO TAF SITES. CLOUDS
AND ISOLATED FLURRIES WILL LINGER OVER NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
INDIANA...BUT THEY WILL NOT AFFECT TAF SITES.
WINDS HAVE FINALLY TAPERED OFF AND WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON...AND WILL THEN BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES CLOSER TO TAF SITES. SUSTAINED
SPEEDS WILL RANGE FROM 4 TO 9 KTS.
TONIGHT...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN THE MID AND HIGH LEVELS AS A
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...ESPECIALLY AT KLAF. HOWEVER...NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AHEAD OF A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY...BUT NOWHERE NEAR AS BAD AS THE LAST FEW
DAYS. SUSTAINED SPEEDS WILL RANGE FROM 10 TO 14 KTS WITH SOME
GUSTS UP TO 24 KTS.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD/JH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
649 AM EST TUE JAN 3 2012
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW SHOWERS WILL END OVER NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA
BY MIDDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN COLD TODAY WITH MANY LOCATIONS REMAINING IN THE 20S. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING WILL EXPAND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK...BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
SKIES HAVE BEEN CLEAR FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT ACROSS ALL BUT
NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE THE VEERING LOW LEVEL
FLOW HAS ENABLED EDGES OF THE LAKE EFFECT BANDS TO REACH DOWN INTO
AREAS EAST OF KOKOMO AND ANDERSON. WINDS HAVE STEADILY WEAKENED OVER
THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS WITH MAX GUSTS GENERALLY NO HIGHER THAN
20MPH. TEMPERATURES AT 08Z WERE IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S.
FOCUS REMAINS ON THE CONTINUATION OF SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OVER
NORTHEAST COUNTIES BEFORE FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL FLOW COLLAPSES BY
MIDDAY. HAVE RELIED ON HRRR AND RUC INITIALLY THIS MORNING WITH
RESPECT TO LOCATION OF SNOW BANDS.
RADAR MOSAIC OVER THE REGION HAS SHOWN A SLOW DECLINE IN SNOW BAND
INTENSITY ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WEAKEN.
THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS WIND
SPEEDS BETWEEN 925MB AND 800MB DROP TO 15-20MPH. THIS WILL MAKE IT
INCREASING MORE DIFFICULT FOR THE STEADIER BANDS TO MAKE IT INTO
NORTHEAST COUNTIES AND A NOTED DECREASE IN SNOWFALL INTENSITY AND
COVERAGE SHOULD OCCUR OVER THE NEXT 3-5 HOURS. AS THE MORNING
PROGRESSES...ARRIVAL OF THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL FURTHER WEAKEN
LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH WINDS BACKING TO A MORE W/NW DIRECTION BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. WILL CARRY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES EAST OF A
KOKOMO-ANDERSON-NEW CASTLE LINE THROUGH MIDDAY WITH ANY LEFTOVER
FLURRIES SHIFTING NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THEREAFTER AS WINDS
BACK. ISOLATED ACCUMULATIONS OF A COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH CANNOT BE
RULED OUT EARLY THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER DELAWARE AND RANDOLPH
COUNTIES. WILL FRESHEN SPS TO HIGHLIGHT.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
THE EXPANSION OF SAID HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE INTO THE REGION. RUC/NAM
BOTH SUGGESTIVE OF SOME DIURNAL CU DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING WITH LOW
LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH ALIGNED JUST EAST OF THE REGION. HOWEVER AS
WINDS BACK AND DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST
SHOULD SEE SKIES BECOME MAINLY SUNNY FOR THE AFTERNOON. EXCEPTION
WILL BE OVER NORTHEAST COUNTIES WHERE COLDEST BOUNDARY LAYER
CONDITIONS MAY ENABLE CLOUDS TO LINGER THROUGH MID AFTERNOON BEFORE
DIMINISHING.
TEMPS...DESPITE THE POTENTIAL FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TODAY...WARM
ADVECTION DOES NOT REALLY COMMENCES UNTIL LATE DAY. COMBINED WITH
POOR MIXING LEVELS TO ONLY ABOUT 2KFT THIS AFTERNOON...MANY
LOCATIONS WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO CLIMB OUT OF THE 20S. TRENDED MUCH
CLOSER TO COOLER MAVMOS GUIDANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON TEMPS AND CLOUDS IN AN OTHERWISE BENIGN
PERIOD. MODEL GUIDANCE IS SIMILAR ON MAIN FEATURES THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM AND HAVE TAKEN A BLEND.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE PERIOD AND THE EXPANSION OF A
BROAD UPPER RIDGE BY THURSDAY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BOTH BE KEY
FEATURES IN KEEPING WEATHER DRY OVER CENTRAL INDIANA WITH A
TEMPERATURE RECOVERY BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD. TWO WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL PASS NORTH OF THE
REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BOTH OF
THESE FEATURES WILL BRING A PERIOD OF INCREASED MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS OVER MAINLY NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRATOCU DEVELOPMENT WEDNESDAY AS QUICK SHOT OF
COLD ADVECTION FOLLOWS IN WAKE OF THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE PASSAGE
ALOFT. THE EXPANSION OF THE UPPER RIDGE INTO THE REGION BY THURSDAY
WILL ENABLE A MORE SUBSTANTIAL PUSH OF MILDER AIR INTO CENTRAL
INDIANA ALONG WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. DRY
WEATHER WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT AS MID
LEVEL HEIGHTS FURTHER RISE OVER THE REGION.
TEMPS...LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE REACHED DURING THE EVENING AS WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE ENABLES STEADY OR SLOWLY
RISING TEMPS THROUGH THE 20S THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. TRENDED
TOWARDS COOLER MET GUIDANCE WEDNESDAY AS POTENTIAL FOR STRATOCU
DEVELOPMENT MENTIONED ABOVE MAY STUNT TEMP RISES A BIT. LEANED
TOWARDS MAVMOS GUIDANCE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 40S THURSDAY AS LOW LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PUMPS WARMER AIR INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS ARE STILL SUPPORTING A DRY EXTENDED FORECAST. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ARE STILL PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SATURDAY...BUT MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE
LACKING. PLUS...THE ONLY GULF MOISTURE THAT WILL BE ADVECTED AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WILL BE AFTER IT/S THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA. SO...REMOVED
MENTION OF POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF FORECAST AREA ON
SATURDAY. BEYOND THAT...MODELS HAVE FALLEN OUT OF AGREEMENT IN
REGARD TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
ORIGINALLY...THEY BOTH INDICATED A TRACK ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH.
HOWEVER...THE EURO IS PULLING IT MUCH FURTHER SOUTH NOW...WHILE THE
GFS IS SHOWING A VERY BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER MUCH OF THE OHIO
AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...AND DOWN INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. AS A
RESULT...WILL NOT DEVIATE FROM DRY INITIALIZATION NUMBERS WITH THIS
MUCH INCONSISTENCY.
TEMPS...TRENDED FRIDAY/S HIGHS ON THE WARMER SIDE WITH DECENT
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT...AND BUMPED UP
FRIDAY NIGHT/S LOWS A FEW DEGREES AS WELL TO ACCOUNT FOR INCREASED
CLOUD COVER. OTHERWISE...STUCK WITH INITIALIZATION NUMBERS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF EXTENDED PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 03/12Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR ENTIRE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO TAF SITES. CLOUDS AND ISOLATED FLURRIES WILL LINGER
OVER NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA...BUT THEY WILL NOT
AFFECT TAF SITES.
WINDS HAVE FINALLY TAPERED OFF AND WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON...AND WILL THEN BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES CLOSER TO TAF SITES. SUSTAINED
SPEEDS WILL RANGE FROM 4 TO 9 KTS.
TONIGHT...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN THE MID AND HIGH LEVELS AS A
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...ESPECIALLY AT KLAF. HOWEVER...NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AHEAD OF A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY...BUT NOWHERE NEAR AS BAD AS THE LAST FEW
DAYS. SUSTAINED SPEEDS WILL RANGE FROM 10 TO 14 KTS WITH SOME
GUSTS UP TO 24 KTS.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
348 AM EST TUE JAN 3 2012
.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM SECTIONS HAVE
BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW SHOWERS WILL END OVER NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA
BY MIDDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN COLD TODAY WITH MANY LOCATIONS REMAINING IN THE 20S. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING WILL EXPAND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK...BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
SKIES HAVE BEEN CLEAR FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT ACROSS ALL BUT
NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE THE VEERING LOW LEVEL
FLOW HAS ENABLED EDGES OF THE LAKE EFFECT BANDS TO REACH DOWN INTO
AREAS EAST OF KOKOMO AND ANDERSON. WINDS HAVE STEADILY WEAKENED OVER
THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS WITH MAX GUSTS GENERALLY NO HIGHER THAN
20MPH. TEMPERATURES AT 08Z WERE IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S.
FOCUS REMAINS ON THE CONTINUATION OF SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OVER
NORTHEAST COUNTIES BEFORE FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL FLOW COLLAPSES BY
MIDDAY. HAVE RELIED ON HRRR AND RUC INITIALLY THIS MORNING WITH
RESPECT TO LOCATION OF SNOW BANDS.
RADAR MOSAIC OVER THE REGION HAS SHOWN A SLOW DECLINE IN SNOW BAND
INTENSITY ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WEAKEN.
THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS WIND
SPEEDS BETWEEN 925MB AND 800MB DROP TO 15-20MPH. THIS WILL MAKE IT
INCREASING MORE DIFFICULT FOR THE STEADIER BANDS TO MAKE IT INTO
NORTHEAST COUNTIES AND A NOTED DECREASE IN SNOWFALL INTENSITY AND
COVERAGE SHOULD OCCUR OVER THE NEXT 3-5 HOURS. AS THE MORNING
PROGRESSES...ARRIVAL OF THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL FURTHER WEAKEN
LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH WINDS BACKING TO A MORE W/NW DIRECTION BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. WILL CARRY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES EAST OF A
KOKOMO-ANDERSON-NEW CASTLE LINE THROUGH MIDDAY WITH ANY LEFTOVER
FLURRIES SHIFTING NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THEREAFTER AS WINDS
BACK. ISOLATED ACCUMULATIONS OF A COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH CANNOT BE
RULED OUT EARLY THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER DELAWARE AND RANDOLPH
COUNTIES. WILL FRESHEN SPS TO HIGHLIGHT.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
THE EXPANSION OF SAID HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE INTO THE REGION. RUC/NAM
BOTH SUGGESTIVE OF SOME DIURNAL CU DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING WITH LOW
LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH ALIGNED JUST EAST OF THE REGION. HOWEVER AS
WINDS BACK AND DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST
SHOULD SEE SKIES BECOME MAINLY SUNNY FOR THE AFTERNOON. EXCEPTION
WILL BE OVER NORTHEAST COUNTIES WHERE COLDEST BOUNDARY LAYER
CONDITIONS MAY ENABLE CLOUDS TO LINGER THROUGH MID AFTERNOON BEFORE
DIMINISHING.
TEMPS...DESPITE THE POTENTIAL FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TODAY...WARM
ADVECTION DOES NOT REALLY COMMENCES UNTIL LATE DAY. COMBINED WITH
POOR MIXING LEVELS TO ONLY ABOUT 2KFT THIS AFTERNOON...MANY
LOCATIONS WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO CLIMB OUT OF THE 20S. TRENDED MUCH
CLOSER TO COOLER MAVMOS GUIDANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON TEMPS AND CLOUDS IN AN OTHERWISE BENIGN
PERIOD. MODEL GUIDANCE IS SIMILAR ON MAIN FEATURES THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM AND HAVE TAKEN A BLEND.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE PERIOD AND THE EXPANSION OF A
BROAD UPPER RIDGE BY THURSDAY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BOTH BE KEY
FEATURES IN KEEPING WEATHER DRY OVER CENTRAL INDIANA WITH A
TEMPERATURE RECOVERY BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD. TWO WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL PASS NORTH OF THE
REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BOTH OF
THESE FEATURES WILL BRING A PERIOD OF INCREASED MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS OVER MAINLY NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRATOCU DEVELOPMENT WEDNESDAY AS QUICK SHOT OF
COLD ADVECTION FOLLOWS IN WAKE OF THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE PASSAGE
ALOFT. THE EXPANSION OF THE UPPER RIDGE INTO THE REGION BY THURSDAY
WILL ENABLE A MORE SUBSTANTIAL PUSH OF MILDER AIR INTO CENTRAL
INDIANA ALONG WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. DRY
WEATHER WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT AS MID
LEVEL HEIGHTS FURTHER RISE OVER THE REGION.
TEMPS...LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE REACHED DURING THE EVENING AS WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE ENABLES STEADY OR SLOWLY
RISING TEMPS THROUGH THE 20S THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. TRENDED
TOWARDS COOLER MET GUIDANCE WEDNESDAY AS POTENTIAL FOR STRATOCU
DEVELOPMENT MENTIONED ABOVE MAY STUNT TEMP RISES A BIT. LEANED
TOWARDS MAVMOS GUIDANCE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 40S THURSDAY AS LOW LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PUMPS WARMER AIR INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS ARE STILL SUPPORTING A DRY EXTENDED FORECAST. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ARE STILL PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SATURDAY...BUT MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE
LACKING. PLUS...THE ONLY GULF MOISTURE THAT WILL BE ADVECTED AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WILL BE AFTER IT/S THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA. SO...REMOVED
MENTION OF POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF FORECAST AREA ON
SATURDAY. BEYOND THAT...MODELS HAVE FALLEN OUT OF AGREEMENT IN
REGARD TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
ORIGINALLY...THEY BOTH INDICATED A TRACK ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH.
HOWEVER...THE EURO IS PULLING IT MUCH FURTHER SOUTH NOW...WHILE THE
GFS IS SHOWING A VERY BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER MUCH OF THE OHIO
AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...AND DOWN INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. AS A
RESULT...WILL NOT DEVIATE FROM DRY INITIALIZATION NUMBERS WITH THIS
MUCH INCONSISTENCY.
TEMPS...TRENDED FRIDAY/S HIGHS ON THE WARMER SIDE WITH DECENT
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT...AND BUMPED UP
FRIDAY NIGHT/S LOWS A FEW DEGREES AS WELL TO ACCOUNT FOR INCREASED
CLOUD COVER. OTHERWISE...STUCK WITH INITIALIZATION NUMBERS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF EXTENDED PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 03/09Z TAF UPDATE/...
UPDATE...
NO CHANGES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FINALLY...AS EXPECTED THE MAJORITY OF THE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY HAS ABATED. SNOW SHOWERS MAY IMPACT THE NE CORRIDOR OF
THE FORECAST AREA...THANKS TO SOME LAKE EFFECT ACTION...BUT THIS
SHOULD STAY NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST TERMINALS. THIS LAKE EFFECT
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MONITORED IN THE RARE CASE IS MATRICULATES
DOWN TOWARD KIND. OTHERWISE...BKN-OVC MID LVL CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
SCATTERED OUT LATER THIS MORNING. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT AND WINDS BY LATER THIS MORNING WILL
BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS AT ALL SITES.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
435 PM MST WED JAN 4 2012
.DISCUSSION...
232 PM MST WED JAN 4 2012
EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RUC H5 ANALYSIS SHOW PATTERN ACROSS
HIGH PLAINS DOMINATED BY LARGE SCALE RIDGE. WITH DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...IMMEDIATE FOCUS REMAINS ON
NEAR RECORD TEMPS ON THURSDAY.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...H5 RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT SOUTH BY THURSDAY
MORNING...WITH WESTERLY FLOW AND THERMAL TROUGH SUPPORTING WARMER
AIR MASS OVER CWA. THURSDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK TO BE VERY
WARM...WITH NEAR RECORD HIGHS OVER PARTS OF THE CWA. SNOW PACK
CONTINUED TO DETERIORATE TODAY IN THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PART OF
CWA...AND IM NOT CONFIDENT IT WILL HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT
THURSDAY. FOR NOW BEST MIXING STILL APPEARS TO BE OVER NORTHERN
AND WESTERN PARTS OF CWA...WHERE TEMPS AROUND 70 ARE POSSIBLE.
FURTHER SOUTH...I HAVE TRENDED TEMPS UP SLIGHTLY...THOUGH STILL IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S TO ACCOUNT FOR LESSENING IMPACT OF SNOW COVER
IN THE SOUTH. WHILE RH VALUES THURSDAY LOOK TO APPROACH CRITICAL
LEVELS...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT AND BELOW RED FLAG
CRITERIA.
DRY COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH OVER CWA BY FRIDAY MORNING WITH TEMPS
DROPPING BACK CLOSER TO SEASONAL LEVELS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT...THOUGH THEY STILL APPEAR TO BE WARMER THAN NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S.
SATURDAY-TUESDAY...MOST GUIDANCE CURRENTLY SHOWING CUTOFF LOW
DEVELOPING OVER SW CONUS...WITH SPLIT FLOW ACROSS THE
PLAINS...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE
EXTENDED. 06Z/12Z GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE OUTLIER SHOWING THIS
TROUGH PASSING THROUGH THE PLAINS AS OPEN WAVE. WITH THE GEFS
SHOWING SUPPORT FOR THE THE CLOSED SW LOW SOLUTION OF THE
ECMWF/GEM...I DECIDED TO DISCOUNT THE WETTER GFS SOLUTION. BIGGER
QUESTION IN THE EXTENDED WITH BE TO WHAT EXTENT TEMPS WARM UP
MONDAY/TUESDAY. TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S SEEMS REASONABLE FOR
NOW...WITH ECMWF POSSIBLE SUPPORTING TEMPS EVEN A LITTLE WARMER
THESE DAYS.
DR
&&
.AVIATION...
435 PM MST WED JAN 4 2012
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
ANCHORED TO THE SOUTH WILL RESULT IN LITTLE MORE THAN PASSING HIGH
CLOUDS WITH A CONTINUED WEST/SOUTHWEST WIND AT AROUND 10KTS.
050
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1055 AM MST TUE JAN 3 2012
.UPDATE...
950 AM MST TUE JAN 3 2012
MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CURRENT FORECAST...WITH MAIN CHANGE
BEING TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER DURING THE DAY AND EVENING. HAVE
SOME CONCERN FOR FIRE WEATHER HIGHLITES DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT
WILL HOLD OFF ISSUING ANYTHING FOR RIGHT NOW DUE UNCERTAINTY OF
WINDS REMAINING STRONG LONG ENOUGH TO MEET CRITERIA.
LATEST SATELLITE AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW HIGH CLOUDS MOVING OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH. EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY THEN DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING BEHIND
THE TROUGH AS IT EXITS THE AREA. AT THE SURFACE WINDS HAVE TURNED TO
THE NORTHWEST AND HAD SOME GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH DURING THE MORNING
BEFORE CLOUD COVER MOVED IN...MOST LIKELY DUE TO THE STRONG WINDS
OFF THE SURFACE MIXING DOWN AS TEMPERATURES WARMED.
AFTER CLOUDS MOVED OVER WINDS HAVE TURNED TO MORE OF A WESTERLY
DIRECTION AND LIGHTENED. POINT SOUNDINGS SHOW THE STRONGER WINDS
WILL MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE...HOWEVER WITH THE ADDED CLOUD COVER
AM NOT AS CONFIDENT THAT WINDS WILL GUST UP 30 MPH LONG ENOUGH TO
MEET FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA. HOWEVER TEMPERATURES SEEM TO BE
WARMING DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER SO SOME MIXING WILL CERTAINLY BE
POSSIBLE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR OBSERVATIONS.
JTL
&&
.DISCUSSION...
300 AM MST TUE JAN 3 2012
TODAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...DRY AND WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. BEFORE IT DOES SHOULD SEE AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S. FOR THE GREELEY AND
WICHITA COUNTY AREAS SFC FLOW IS FROM THE NORTHWEST AND NOT THE
SNOW PACK AS IN PREVIOUS DAYS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
WARM TO AT LEAST THE MID 50S PER 850 TEMPERATURES. COULD BE
SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER GIVEN FLOW FROM NORTHWEST. SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WITH 55 TO 60 ACROSS THE AREA UNDER A
MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. ON THURSDAY SFC FLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY 65 TO 70 EXCEPT OVER GREELEY AND WICHITA COUNTIES WHERE
AROUND 60/LOW 60S EXPECTED AS SOME LINGERING SNOW COVER EXPECTED
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA AND FLOW OFF IT MOVES INTO THOSE
AREAS.
BASED ON CURRENT FORECAST RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGH EXPECTED
TODAY AT GOODLAND (68 IN 2006). ON THURSDAY RECORD OR NEAR RECORD
HIGHS POSSIBLE AT GOODLAND (71 IN 1927) AND YUMA (66 IN 1965).
007
IN THE EXTENDED (FRIDAY-MONDAY)...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN
REASONABLE AGREEMENT EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH H5 RIDGE BREAKING
DOWN AND BROAD TROUGHING SPREADING OVER THE AREA. DIFFERENCES
REMAIN WITH RESPECT TO STRENGTH OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO
SLIDE OVER AREA ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. LATEST MODELS AND
ESPECIALLY GEFS PRECIP PROBABILITIES SUGGEST SMALL PRECIP THREAT
ON BOTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH GEFS SUGGESTING FRIDAY
NIGHT MIGHT ACTUALLY HAVE THE BEST CHANCES. WHILE THERE IS
EXPECTED TO BE LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND SOME POTENTIAL
INSTABILITY...GEFS DATA IS RADICALLY DIFFERENT FROM BOTH 12 AND 24
HOURS AGO SO DO NOT THINK GOING MUCH ABOVE MINIMAL POPS IN THE
WEST IS WARRANTED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT GIVEN OPERATIONAL DATA AND
EXPECTED CONVECTIVE/SPOTTY NATURE OF ANY PRECIPITATION.
OTHERWISE...TEMPS FALLING BACK TO NEAR/BELOW NORMAL STILL LOOK ON
TRACK FOR PERIOD...WITH TEMPS BEGINNING TO WARM BACK UP AS H5
RIDGE REDEVELOPS OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
1046 AM MST TUE JAN 3 2012
VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE 18Z TAFS. BIGGEST QUESTION
WITH THE TAFS WILL BE THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS. CURRENTLY MODELS
ARE NOT HANDLING THE CLOUD COVER WELL...HAVING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AT BEST. CURRENTLY THINKING THE CLOUDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND DECREASE DURING THE EVENING AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH.
WITH THE ADDED CLOUD COVER...THE STRONGER WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE
WILL NOT BE ABLE TO FULLY MIX DOWN. HOWEVER WITH THE UNSEASONABLY
WARM TEMPERATURES...AM THINKING GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER.
JTL
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1022 AM MST TUE JAN 3 2012
.UPDATE...
950 AM MST TUE JAN 3 2012
MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CURRENT FORECAST...WITH MAIN CHANGE
BEING TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER DURING THE DAY AND EVENING. HAVE
SOME CONCERN FOR FIRE WEATHER HIGHLITES DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT
WILL HOLD OFF ISSUING ANYTHING FOR RIGHT NOW DUE UNCERTAINTY OF
WINDS REMAINING STRONG LONG ENOUGH TO MEET CRITERIA.
LATEST SATELLITE AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW HIGH CLOUDS MOVING OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH. EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY THEN DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING BEHIND
THE TROUGH AS IT EXITS THE AREA. AT THE SURFACE WINDS HAVE TURNED TO
THE NORTHWEST AND HAD SOME GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH DURING THE MORNING
BEFORE CLOUD COVER MOVED IN...MOST LIKELY DUE TO THE STRONG WINDS
OFF THE SURFACE MIXING DOWN AS TEMPERATURES WARMED.
AFTER CLOUDS MOVED OVER WINDS HAVE TURNED TO MORE OF A WESTERLY
DIRECTION AND LIGHTENED. POINT SOUNDINGS SHOW THE STRONGER WINDS
WILL MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE...HOWEVER WITH THE ADDED CLOUD COVER
AM NOT AS CONFIDENT THAT WINDS WILL GUST UP 30 MPH LONG ENOUGH TO
MEET FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA. HOWEVER TEMPERATURES SEEM TO BE
WARMING DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER SO SOME MIXING WILL CERTAINLY BE
POSSIBLE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR OBSERVATIONS.
JTL
&&
.DISCUSSION...
300 AM MST TUE JAN 3 2012
TODAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...DRY AND WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. BEFORE IT DOES SHOULD SEE AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S. FOR THE GREELEY AND
WICHITA COUNTY AREAS SFC FLOW IS FROM THE NORTHWEST AND NOT THE
SNOW PACK AS IN PREVIOUS DAYS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
WARM TO AT LEAST THE MID 50S PER 850 TEMPERATURES. COULD BE
SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER GIVEN FLOW FROM NORTHWEST. SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WITH 55 TO 60 ACROSS THE AREA UNDER A
MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. ON THURSDAY SFC FLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY 65 TO 70 EXCEPT OVER GREELEY AND WICHITA COUNTIES WHERE
AROUND 60/LOW 60S EXPECTED AS SOME LINGERING SNOW COVER EXPECTED
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA AND FLOW OFF IT MOVES INTO THOSE
AREAS.
BASED ON CURRENT FORECAST RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGH EXPECTED
TODAY AT GOODLAND (68 IN 2006). ON THURSDAY RECORD OR NEAR RECORD
HIGHS POSSIBLE AT GOODLAND (71 IN 1927) AND YUMA (66 IN 1965).
007
IN THE EXTENDED (FRIDAY-MONDAY)...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN
REASONABLE AGREEMENT EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH H5 RIDGE BREAKING
DOWN AND BROAD TROUGHING SPREADING OVER THE AREA. DIFFERENCES
REMAIN WITH RESPECT TO STRENGTH OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO
SLIDE OVER AREA ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. LATEST MODELS AND
ESPECIALLY GEFS PRECIP PROBABILITIES SUGGEST SMALL PRECIP THREAT
ON BOTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH GEFS SUGGESTING FRIDAY
NIGHT MIGHT ACTUALLY HAVE THE BEST CHANCES. WHILE THERE IS
EXPECTED TO BE LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND SOME POTENTIAL
INSTABILITY...GEFS DATA IS RADICALLY DIFFERENT FROM BOTH 12 AND 24
HOURS AGO SO DO NOT THINK GOING MUCH ABOVE MINIMAL POPS IN THE
WEST IS WARRANTED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT GIVEN OPERATIONAL DATA AND
EXPECTED CONVECTIVE/SPOTTY NATURE OF ANY PRECIPITATION.
OTHERWISE...TEMPS FALLING BACK TO NEAR/BELOW NORMAL STILL LOOK ON
TRACK FOR PERIOD...WITH TEMPS BEGINNING TO WARM BACK UP AS H5
RIDGE REDEVELOPS OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
439 AM MST TUE JAN 3 2012
FOR 12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR ENTIRE PERIOD. WHILE
LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES AND LOW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE BEING
OBSERVED AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS...VERTICAL MOISTURE PROFILES VERY SHALLOW AND THINK FOG
THREAT IS MINIMAL. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND INCREASE
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH A POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD
OF STRONG WINDS AROUND 21Z. COULD SEE A GUST OR TWO IN EXCESS OF
30 KTS DURING THIS TIME BEFORE WINDS DECOUPLE AFTER SUNSET.
JRM
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
325 PM EST TUE JAN 3 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SNOW
SHOWERS THROUGH THIS EVENING AND QUITE COLD TEMPERATURES THROUGH
TONIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXPECT LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS TO PERSIST ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH EARLY EVENING AS NORTHWEST FLOW OFF THE GREAT
LAKES CONTINUES.
PLAN TO EXTEND HEADLINES FOR WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES MAINLY ACROSS
WESTERN PA AND OVER THE WV/MD MOUNTAINS THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES IN PERSISTENT SNOW
BANDS.
NAM MODEL PROFILES SHOW CAPPING INVERSION LOWERING TO 5 KFT AGL BY
LATE EVENING. THIS SHOULD REDUCE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF REMAINING
SNOW SHOWERS.
AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY EVENING AS
WINDS GUST TO AROUND 30 MPH AT TIMES. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE AFTER 02Z. WIND CHILLS OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS MOST AREAS AND SHOULD RANGE FROM ZERO TO MINUS 9 IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...JUST ABOVE THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY THRESHOLD.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
WEDNESDAY. THIS FAST MOVING SYSTEM WILL BRING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AS GREATEST DYNAMICS AND
MOISTURE REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SCATTERED PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF AS UPPER TROUGH EXITS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY AS THE
UPPER FLOW FLATTENS AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS TO OUR
NORTH THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA.
TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER WELL INTO THE 30S THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE 40S ON FRIDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PER RECENT HPC GUIDANCE, THAT SHOWED PREFERENCE TOWARD RECENT ECMWF
MODEL OUTPUT, EXPECT UPPER LEVEL JETSTREAM ACROSS THE U.S. TO BE
FAIRLY ZONAL THIS WEEKEND, THEN BACK MORE INTO THE NORTHWEST AS AN
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE NET RESULT WILL BE
TEMPERATURES AVERAGING SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL.
REGARDING DAILY DETAILS, STILL UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW CLOSE A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM, MOVING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN SEABOARD
THIS WEEKEND, WILL PASS TO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. FOR NOW HAVE A
CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM MAY DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK IN THE EVOLVING
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW. HOWEVER, PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY TO
SMALL TO MENTION. SO MAINTAINED MAINLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS, WHICH LED
TO LOW TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PER RECENT SURFACE AND RADAR DATA AND HRRR MODEL OUTPUT, EXPECT LAKE
EFFECT SNOW BANDS TO CAUSE FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE TO IFR
AT TIMES THROUGH 00Z. NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS CAN GUST TO 25 KTS.
RECENT NAM MODEL PROFILES SHOW A LOWERING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
TOWARD 00Z, THAT WILL CAP THE LAKE EFFECT INSTABILITY THIS EVENING.
HENCE EXPECT NO WORSE THAN MVFR RESTRICTIONS EARLY TONIGHT WITH VERY
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. THEN DISSIPATING STRATOCUMULUS SHOULD YIELD
MAINLY VFR BY LATE TONIGHT.
FAST-MOVING EASTBOUND CLIPPER TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY PRODUCE
SNOW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY MVFR RESTRICTIONS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
EXPECT MAINLY VFR THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS WITH
MIXED PRECIPITATION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ001.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ040-
041-050.
PA...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
PAZ007>009.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ074-
076.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
PAZ013>016-020>023-029-031-073-075.
WV...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ023-
041.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
WVZ001>003-021-022.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
1219 PM EST TUE JAN 3 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND QUITE COLD TEMPERATURES THROUGH
TONIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS...EXPECTED SNOW AMOUNTS AND
TEMPERATURES BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA AND EAST CENTRAL OHIO THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO
TRAJECTORY OF NORTHWEST FLOW OFF THE GREAT LAKES.
HAVE MAINTAINED HEADLINES AND WILL CONTINUE TO ISSUE SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENTS AS NEEDED FOR OTHER PERSISTING SNOW BANDS THAT
DEVELOP.
NAM MODEL PROFILES SHOW CAPPING INVERSION LOWERING TO 5 KFT AGL
TOWARD EVENING WHICH SHOULD REDUCE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
REMAINING SNOW SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEARLY STEADY THIS AFTERNOON AS COLD ADVECTION
CONTINUES. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY FORM THE NORTHWEST WITH WINDS
CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. SURFACE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO DAMPEN
SNOW SHOWERS THIS EVENING WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS TO SINGLE
DIGITS IN THE RIDGES. WIND CHILLS TONIGHT WILL BE BORDERLINE FOR
AN ADVISORY IN THE RIDGES AND WILL BE MONITORED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
QUICKLY SWING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER OH VALLEY BRINGING LOW
CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS AS BEST DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE REMAIN
NORTH OF REGION. THURSDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY AS A WEAK RIDGE
MOVES OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER WELL INTO THE 30S
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LATEST MODELS SHOW CLIPPER MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY REMAINING FARTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUS RUNS SO
HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST. WEAK FRONT WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. SOME MODEL
DISAGREEMENT FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH DETERMINISTIC MODELS
INDICATING A CYCLONE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES (AND CLIPPING OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES)...WHILE ENSEMBLES
GENERALLY KEEP CONDITIONS DRY. WITH MODELS STILL SHOWING SOME
INDICATION OF PRECIP...HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. HAVE ALSO ADDED SOME POPS NORTH FOR LAKE
EFFECT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...THEN MODERATING FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PER RECENT SURFACE AND RADAR DATA AND HRRR MODEL OUTPUT, EXPECT LAKE
EFFECT SNOW BANDS TO CAUSE FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE TO IFR
AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS CAN GUST TO 25 KTS.
RECENT NAM MODEL PROFILES CONTINUE TO SHOW A LOWERING SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION LATE THIS AFTERNOON THAT WILL CAP THE LAKE EFFECT
INSTABILITY BY EVENING. HENCE EXPECT NO WORSE THAN MVFR RESTRICTIONS
LATE AFTERNOON AND MAINLY VFR TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MAY BRING SNOW SHOWERS
AND RESTRICTIONS LATE WEDNESDAY. EXPECT MAINLY VFR THURSDAY INTO
SATURDAY.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
PAZ013>016-022-023-073-075.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PAZ074-
076.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
PAZ007>009.
WV...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WVZ023-
041.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
818 AM EST TUE JAN 3 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
COLD NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING SNOW
SHOWERS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND QUITE COLD TEMPERATURES THROUGH
TONIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO SNOW BAND COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS BASED ON
BLEND OF RECENT HRRR AND NAM MODEL OUTPUT, THAT SHOWED LAKE EFFECT
SNOW BANDS MAY PERSIST ACROSS SOME PARTS OF WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA
AND EAST CENTRAL OHIO DUE TO TRAJECTORY OF NORTHWEST FLOW OFF THE
GREAT LAKES.
HAVE MAINTAINED HEADLINES AND WILL ISSUE SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENTS AS NEEDED FOR OTHER PERSISTING SNOW BANDS THAT DEVELOP.
NAM MODEL PROFILES SHOW CAPPING INVERSION LOWERING TO 5 KFT AGL TOWARD
EVENING WHICH SHOULD REDUCE ANY REMAINING SNOW SHOWERS TO LITTLE
MORE THAN FLURRIES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEARLY STEADY TODAY AS COLD ADVECTION
CONTINUES. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY FORM THE NORTHWEST WITH WINDS
CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. SURFACE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO DAMPEN
SNOW SHOWERS THIS EVENING WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS TO SINGLE
DIGITS IN TH RIDGES. WIND CHILLS TONIGHT WILL BE BORDERLINE FOR AN
ADVISORY IN THE RIDGES AND WILL BE MONITORED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
QUICKLY SWING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER OH VALLEY BRINGING LOW
CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS AS BEST DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE REMAIN
NORTH OF REGION. THURSDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY AS A WEAK RIDGE
MOVES OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER WELL INTO THE 30S
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LATEST MODELS SHOW CLIPPER MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY REMAINING FARTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUS RUNS SO
HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST. WEAK FRONT WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. SOME MODEL
DISAGREEMENT FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH DETERMINISTIC MODELS
INDICATING A CYCLONE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES (AND CLIPPING OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES)...WHILE ENSEMBLES
GENERALLY KEEP CONDITIONS DRY. WITH MODELS STILL SHOWING SOME
INDICATION OF PRECIP...HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. HAVE ALSO ADDED SOME POPS NORTH FOR LAKE
EFFECT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...THEN MODERATING FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PER RECENT SURFACE AND RADAR DATA AND HRRR MODEL OUTPUT, EXPECT
LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS TO CAUSE FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE
TO IFR AT TIMES INTO THE AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS CAN
GUST TO 25 KTS.
NAM MODEL PROFILES THEN SHOW LOWERING INVERSION CAPPING LAKE
EFFECT INSTABILITY LATE AFTERNOON. HENCE EXPECT NO WORSE THAN MVFR
RESTRICTIONS THEN. EXPECT MAINLY VFR TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES COULD BRING SOME
RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY...BUT PRIMARILY NORTH OF
PITTSBURGH. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A FRONT COULD BRING SOME SCATTERED
RESTRICTIONS IN SHOWERS ON SATURDAY.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
PAZ013>016-022-023-073-075.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PAZ074-
076.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
PAZ007>009.
WV...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WVZ023-
041.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
1038 PM EST WED JAN 4 2012
.SYNOPSIS.../ISSUED AT 425 PM/
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING...MAINTAINING OVERALL DRY WEATHER. A DEEP LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES...
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. BLUSTERY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PROPEL
TEMPERATURES TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY. THE TRAILING COLD
FRONT WILL RETURN TEMPERATURES TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS THIS
WEEKEND...WITH SOME MINOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW.
HALBLAUB
&&
.SHORT TERM.../ISSUED AT 1038 PM/...TONIGHT
...ANOTHER NGT OF EXTENSIVE CLDS AND MUCH ABOVE NORMAL LOW TEMPS...
SEQUENCE OF RUC ANALYSES SHOW WEAK/SUBTLE PV ANOMALY ON THE
TROPOPAUSE AROUND 355 MB SLIDING SE THRU THE FCST AREA...IN THE EXIT
REGION OF A 120 KT JET STREAK. HGTS ARE BUILDING IN NW FLOW.
MID-HIGH CLDS IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE ARE DEPARTING TO THE S...
REVEALING WIDESPREAD MVFR STRATUS OVER NRN MI. WE`LL CONTINUE WITH
PERSISTENCE AND MAINTAIN OVC SKIES THE REST OF THE NGT. THE
EXCEPTION IS BENZIE/MANISTEE COUNTIES. WE`VE SEEN CLEARING OVER
LAKE MI HEAD INLAND...WHERE LAKE INSTABILITY IS INSUFFICIENT FOR
LAKE CLDS.
EXTENSIVE LOW CLDS ARE NOT PERMITTING TEMPS TO FALL MUCH. SO LOW
TEMPS WERE RAISED ABOUT 3F...DERIVED FROM MINIMUM 3-HOURLY TEMPS
FROM 12Z NAM MOS. BENZIE/MANISTEE WERE LOWERED WHERE PERIODS OF
CLR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR SOME RADIATING.
SATL SHOWS NEXT BATCH OF MID-HIGH CLDS SPILLING OVER UPSTREAM
RIDGE WITH ITS LEADING EDGE NOW OVER WI. SOME OF THIS WILL AFFECT
BENZIE/MANISTEE OVERNGT.
OTHER THAN SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUDS...NO OTHER SUBSTANTIAL
CHANGES TO THE FCST.
CLIMATE: TODAY WAS THE 3RD DAY IN A ROW OF HIGH TEMPS AT OR BELOW
FRZG. THIS IS ONLY THE 2ND TIME THIS HAS OCCURRED SINCE DEC 11TH.
THE LONGEST STRETCH SO FAR THESE SEASON WAS DEC 5TH-10TH. THIS
CURRENT STRETCH ENDS TODAY AS ANOTHER SURGE OF ABOVE-MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS /TYPICAL OF THIS WINTER/ BEGINS TOMORROW. WE JUST
CANNOT SUSTAIN ANY PROLONGED STRETCHES OF SUB-FRZG COLD.
HALBLAUB
&&
.LONG TERM.../ISSUED AT 425 PM/...THURSDAY AND BEYOND
THURSDAY...A MILDER PUSH OF AIR WILL MOVE UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST DUE
TO STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION. IN ADDITION...A WEAK ALBERTA CLIPPER
WILL MOVE BY TO OUR NORTH. MODEL SOUNDINGS/CROSS SECTIONS SHOW LOTS
OF DRY MID LEVEL AIR...SO IT IS LIKELY GOING TO BE TOUGH TO GENERATE
ANY PRECIPITATION. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE WITH THE LOW CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST FOR LIGHT SNOW. AS FAR AS CLOUD COVER
GOES...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED TO PREVAIL...EXPECT BECOMING
PARTLY CLOUDY SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON (WHEN 925 MB RH DROPS OFF
TO AROUND 40 PERCENT). MILDER WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S
NORTHEAST TO AROUND 40 SOUTHWEST.
SULLIVAN
EXTENDED FORECAST SYNOPTIC PATTERN...A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
TO SWING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WITHIN OVERALL AVERAGED NW FLOW
REGIME ALOFT. NO GULF CONNECTION WITH ANY OF THE SYSTEMS...AND NO
STRONG LOW PRESSURE THROUGH TUESDAY TO BRING ANYTHING CONSIDERED
HAZARDOUS. A MILD FRIDAY WILL GET REPLACED BY A BRIEF SHOT OF COLDER
AIR OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT HIGHS STILL AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE JANUARY
NORMALS. TEMPERATURES RISE AGAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BEFORE A
POSSIBLE ABRUPT SHIFT BACK TOP WINTER. MORE ON THAT BELOW.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE NORTH
WOODS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE GFS PLAYING CATCH UP TO THE ECMWF IDEA
OF HOLDING THE SYSTEM COLD FRONT BACK TO THE NW UNTIL FRIDAY. ECMWF
STILL A BIT SLOWER AND MAKING IT A MILDER DAY FRIDAY. THAT SAID...A
CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW MAY HANG ON IN THE EVENING WITHIN FGEN REGION
ON WARM FRONT. NO REAL CHANGE HERE. MOISTURE DOES INCREASE AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...BUT FOR THE MOST PART ITS ABOVE 650MB...SO
NO CHANCE OF PRECIP HITTING GROUND THERE. THE COLDER AIR DOES FILL
IN LATER IN THE DAY...WITH THE FIRST CHANCE FOR LIGHT LAKE EFFECT
SNOWS DEVELOPING AROUND WHITEFISH BAY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS CHANCE
CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND MORE SO INTO THE WEEKEND AS A
SECONDARY SHOT OF COLDER AIR ARRIVES. THIS LOOS TO MORE DEFINITELY
KICK THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UP PAST THE -10C ISOTHERM FOR ICE
INTRODUCTION. COULD MAYBE SEE AN INCH IN SOME SPOTS...MAINLY
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT CERTAINLY NO BARN BURNER OF A SNOW
SCENARIO. HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES SUNDAY NIGHT...PUTTING AN END TO ANY
SNOWS BY MONDAY MORNING. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE 40S IN NRN
LOWER AND UPPER 30S...FALLING BACK INTO THE 30S SATURDAY WITH UPPER
20S/AROUND 30F SUNDAY.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...INCREASING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS AND LOW LEVEL
WARMING ENSUES WITH NO LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL. MOISTURE THAT STREAMS
IN WILL ALL BE MID AND UPPER LEVEL WITH NO CHANCE OF SYNOPTIC
PRECIPITATION EITHER. HIGHS WILL BE MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH
READINGS IN THE 30S.
SNEAK PEEK AT WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK...THERE IS A
DECENT CONSENSUS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AHEAD OF
NRN STREAM UPPER TROUGH THAT MAY PHASE IN SOME DEGREE WITH A SRN
STREAM SYSTEM. BITTERLY COLD AIR GRADUALLY SETTLES IN BY FRIDAY WITH
A PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME.
AMOUNTS WOULD BE RIDICULOUS TO ASSESS AT THIS POINT...BUT A REAL
TASTE OF A HARSHER WINTER COULD BE ON TAP.
SMD
&&
.MARINE.../ISSUED AT 425 PM/
WINDS ARE GUSTING TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ACROSS WHITEFISH BAY AND
AT THE NORTHERN END OF THE ST MARYS RIVER SYSTEM. THESE GUSTS WILL
FALL THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH A LESSER PRESSURE GRADIENT. NO ISSUES
FORESEEN UNTIL THURSDAY-FRIDAY WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A
WARM FRONT...THEN COLD FRONT FOR A HANDFUL OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WINDS AND POSSIBLE WAVES.
SMD
&&
.AVIATION.../ISSUED AT 633 PM/...VALID FOR 00Z TAFS
TNGT: UNRESTRICTED VSBYS AND 1500-2500 FT MVFR CIGS. WINDS
GENERALLY W-NW AROUND 5 KTS...WITH A PERIOD OF GUSTY NW WINDS AT
PLN UNTIL ROUGHLY 06Z. AFTER 09Z...PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS AS WINDS
WILL TURN CALM OR LGT AND VARIABLE.
THU: UNRESTRICTED VSBYS WITH MVFR CIGS LIFTING TO 2500-3000 AND
SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOW-END VFR 3500 FT CIGS. THERE COULD BE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF NO LOW CLOUDS...REVEALING MID-LEVEL CIGS. LGT AND
VARIABLE BECOME S 5-10 KTS AFTER 17Z.
CONFIDENCE HIGH ON WIND.
CONFIDENCE HIGH ON VSBYS.
CONFIDENCE AVERAGE ON CIGS.
CONFIDENCE BELOW AVERAGE ON TIMING/OCCURRENCE OF VFR PERIODS.
HALBLAUB
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LHZ347-348.
LM...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LSZ321-322.
&&
$$
WFO APX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
349 PM EST TUE JAN 3 2012
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND WED/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROF OF
INTEREST HEADING SE THRU MANITOBA AND THE DAKOTAS. IMPRESSIVE
WARMING IS NOTED AHEAD OF FEATURE. 850MB TEMPS AT KBIS/KABR/KINL
HAVE JUMPED FROM -1/-6/-15C RESPECTIVELY AT 00Z TUE TO 11/9/-9C AT
12Z. STRONG WAA HAS YET TO YIELD ANY PCPN. ONLY SOME MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS ARE NOTED. AS SHORTWAVE CONTINUES ESE...DON`T ANTICIPATE ANY
PCPN TO DEVELOP IN ONGOING STRONG WAA GIVEN OVERALL RELATIVELY DRY
ENVIRONMENT SHOWN ON THIS MORNINGS REGIONAL SOUNDINGS. THERE IS JUST
ENOUGH LINGERING OVERWATER INSTABILITY TO GENERATE SOME -SHSN OFF
THE LAKES UNDER SYNOPTIC FORCING. WIND SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT TO WARRANT A MENTION OF -SHSN OVER THE E THIS EVENING...
AND ALSO OVER THE KEWEENAW LATER THIS EVENING AND OVER THE NE FCST
AREA WED MORNING AS SW WINDS VEER WNW. OTHERWISE...CONCERN AFTER
FROPA IS POTENTIAL FOR -FZDZ AS MIDLEVELS SHARPLY DRY WHILE MODELS
INSIST THAT A SHALLOW MOIST LAYER (2-3KFT THICK) MATERIALIZES. TEMPS
WITHIN THE SHALLOW MOIST LAYER ARE WARMER THAN -10C...SUGGESTING NO
ICE NUCLEATION. SATELLITE/UPSTREAM OBS HAVE YET TO SHOW ANY LOW
CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...NOSE OF HIGHER SFC DWPTS WELL INTO THE
20S INTO SRN MANITOBA/ERN ND IS SUPPORTIVE OF A POTENTIAL LOW-CLOUD
DECK DEVELOPING AS THE MOISTURE ADVECTS INTO COLDER AIRMASS OVER THE
AREA TONIGHT. HAVE THUS INCLUDED A MENTION OF -FZDZ IN THE WNW WIND
UPSLOPE AREAS OVER WRN UPPER MI LATE EVENING INTO THE MORNING HRS
AND OVER THE NE FCST AREA WED. CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
CLOSELY FOLLOWED REGIONAL GEM FOR TEMP TRENDS TONIGHT. SOME AREAS...
ESPECIALLY W AND N...WILL SEE MINS EARLY THIS EVENING WITH TEMPS
SLOWLY RISING THRU THE NIGHT. MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S AROUND 30F
SHOULD BE THE RULE WED.
.LONG TERM /WED NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY/...
WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BE SLIDING THROUGH THE NW FLOW AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD AND WILL LEAD TO SOME MID CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF THE CWA.
LARGE DIFFERENCES IN H850 TEMPS BETWEEN 12Z NAM AND 06Z GFS...WITH
THE NAM AROUND -6C AND GFS AROUND -9C OVER THE ERN LK. 12Z GEM AND
00Z ECMWF ARE A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE GFS THAN THE NAM. THESE
DIFFERENCES PRODUCE UNCERTAINTY IN LK EFFECT CHANCES AND WILL JUST
MENTION FLURRIES OVER THE NW WIND FAVORED AREAS E OF MUNISING WED
NIGHT. AS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION MENTIONED...THERE COULD BE SOME
DRIZZLE INSTEAD...BUT FELT CHANCES WERE TOO LIMITED TO MENTION.
FLATTENING UPPER RIDGE ON THURS WILL BACK H850-500 WINDS TO THE WEST
AND PRODUCE BROAD WAA OVER THE UPPER GREAT LKS. WITH MOISTURE
STREAMING THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW...THINK THERE WILL BE SOME MID
CLOUDS OVER THE AREA THURS INTO THURS NIGHT...BUT DRIER LLVLS WILL
LIMIT PCPN EVEN WITH THE INCREASING WAA. SFC LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE
CANADIAN ROCKIES ON THURS IN RESPONSE TO SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
THE NRN STREAM WILL SHIFT SE TOWARDS LK WINNIPEG BY 00Z FRI. DEEPEST
MOISTURE AND STRONGEST WAA WILL OCCUR OVER SRN ONTARIO AND NRN LK
SUPERIOR ALONG THE DEVELOPING WARM FRONT THURS AFTN INTO THE
EVENING...SO WILL CONTINUE CHANCE PCPN MENTIONS THERE.
WITH THE SFC LOW SLIDING THROUGH SRN ONTARIO THURS NIGHT AND
FRI...SW HALF OF THE AREA WILL BE UNDER DRY WARM MID LVL AIR /H850
TEMPS RISING TOWARDS 2-3C BY 12Z FRI/. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW THE H900 INVERSION ON THURS NIGHT INTO THE
FIRST PART OF FRI...WHICH COULD LEAD TO BROAD LOWER STRATUS AT LEAST
ON THURS NIGHT. NOT ENTIRELY CONF ON AMNT/COVERAGE OF LOW
CLOUDS...SO WILL CONTINUE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE SW HALF OF
THE AREA. INCREASING WINDS...DRIER AIR...AND WEAKENING INVERSION ON
FRI SHOULD DIMINISH CLOUD COVERAGE OVER THE SW HALF. THE REST OF THE
AREA WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF THE MID CLOUDS FROM THE SYSTEM OVER THE
N. WITH AREA IN WARM SECTOR...EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE AREA ON FRI. WILL CONTINUE UPPER 30S FCST...BUT COULD SEE
SOME LOWER 40S OVER THE SCNTRL...WHERE THE WARMEST LLVL AIR WILL BE
LOCATED.
DAYS 4 THROUGH 7 /FRI NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY/...
THE SFC LOW SHIFTING E THROUGH SERN ONTARIO AT THE START OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...DROPPING A COLD FRONT WILL SE ACROSS THE CWA FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT. DEEP MOISTURE/FORCING CONTINUE TO APPEAR LIMITED AND
WILL CONTINUE ONLY LOW END CHANCE POPS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT. THE COLD FRONT THAT DROPS ACROSS THE AREA LOOKS TO GET HUNG
UP OVER UPPER MI AND NRN WI ON SAT NIGHT DUE TO LIMITED COLD AIR
BEHIND TO GIVE IT A PUSH. ADDITIONAL LLVL MOISTURE FROM THE UPPER
TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH AND H850 TEMPS GRADUALLY FALLING TOWARDS
-14C BY SUN MORNING SHOULD LEAD TO A SLOWLY EXPANDING AREA OF LIGHT
LES SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...MAINLY FOR NW WIND LOCATIONS. LACK OF COLD
AIR GETTING FORCING INTO THE DGZ IS THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR...SINCE
INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL INITIALLY BE AROUND 6KFT AND PLENTY OF LLVL
MOISTURE. DID BUMP POPS UP SOME FOR FAVORED LOCATIONS...BUT KEPT
THEM IN THE LOW CHANCE CAT DUE TO LIMITED ACCUM POTENTIAL.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO LK SUPERIOR ON SUN AS UPPER TROUGH
SHIFTS E. DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE WILL LEAD TO LOWERING INVERSION
HEIGHTS AND SHOULD TAPER OFF LES IN THE EVENING. UPPER GREAT LKS
REGION SHIFTS BACK SLIGHTLY NW FLOW ALOFT AS THE RIDGE OVER THE WRN
CONUS FLATTENS. THIS WILL ALLOW WARMER H850 TEMPS TO INVADE THE
UPPER GREAT LKS REGION AND KEEP THE NRN STREAM WAVES RUNNING ALONG
AND JUST N OF THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER. EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUING
TO SHOW WAVE AFFECTING SRN ONTARIO ON MON...WHICH MAY PUSH SOME PCPN
OVER THE NE HALF OF THE CWA...OTHERWISE THE FAIRLY QUIET AND ABOVE
NORMAL TEMP PATTERN OF WINTER CONTINUES.
&&
.AVIATION /FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THE EVENING HRS AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW
UNDER RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS PER MORNING SOUNDINGS. WITH SFC HIGH
PRES RIDGE OVER THE AREA EXITING TO THE E... A STRENGTHENING S WIND
WILL DEVELOP AS PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS BTWN THE DEPARTING HI AND A
DISTURBANCE/AREA OF PRES FALLS PASSING THRU NRN ONTARIO. AS IS
TYPICAL...THE STRONGEST S WINDS SHOULD IMPACT KIWD AND KSAW WITH
GUSTS AOA 25 KTS. SHOULD WINDS DECOUPLE SUFFICIENTLY THIS EVENING...
LLWS WILL BE POSSIBLE. AS THE ONTARIO DISTURBANCE MOVES FARTHER TO
THE E TONIGHT...A LOW PRES TROF WILL SWING ACROSS UPPER MI. AS THE
FLOW VEERS TO THE WNW...EXPECT LOW CLDS/MVFR CIGS AND PERHAPS SOME
-FZDZ OR -SN TO DEVELOP WHERE THIS FLOW UPSLOPES AT KCMX/KIWD.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. DOWNSLOPE NATURE OF THE WIND AT KSAW WILL LIMIT
THIS POTENTIAL THERE.
&&
.MARINE /FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE/...
PERIOD OF S TO SW GALES ARE EXPECTED LATE AFTN/EVENING OVER MUCH OF
LAKE SUPERIOR AS PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS BTWN DEPARTING HIGH PRES AND
APPROACHING LOW PRES TROF. HEALTHY AREA OF PRES FALLS (CURRENTLY
8MB/3HR JUST NW OF LAKE SUPERIOR) SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO NUDGE
WINDS TO GALE FORCE AS PRES FALLS SHIFT EASTWARD THIS EVENING. SW
WIND WILL VEER TO THE NW LATER TONIGHT WED...WITH SPEEDS UP TO 25-30
KTS. AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRES MOVES INTO ONTARIO THU...WINDS OVER THE
LAKE WILL DIMINISH BLO 20KT. LOOK FOR A STRONGER WESTERLY WIND OF
25-30 KTS TO RETURN FRI FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER LOW PRES
SYSTEM THRU ONTARIO.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ266-267.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST /9 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR LSZ162-
263-264.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
326 AM EST TUE JAN 3 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BRING BLUSTERY WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD EAST AND BECOME CENTERED
OVER THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE SOUTH OF
THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH
THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUE...CAA WELL UNDERWAY ACROSS E NC AS ARCTIC FRONT HAS
PASSED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SOME SCT FLURRIES CONTINUE ACROSS
THE SW PORTIONS OF THE FA AS KDPL HAS REPORTED OCNL -SN...THOUGH
VSBYS ABOVE 5SM SUGGEST VERY LIGHT SNOW FALLING. NO ACCUM IS
EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. VORT MAX PIVOTING EASTWARD
IN ASSOCIATION WITH DEEP E CONUS TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR AREA OF
LIFT/FGEN IN THE H85-H70 LEVEL. X-SECTION ANALYSIS OFF RUC SHOWS
DECENT LIFT COINCIDENT WITH DGZ OCCURRING ACROSS THE E NC...AND AS
THIS MOVES EAST MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE DRY LOW LEVELS
TO PRODUCE SOME SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES AS SCT CIGS AROUND 2K FT
SUGGEST.
THE MAIN STORY TODAY WILL BE THE COLD AND WINDY CONDITIONS.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN MAX T`S REACHING THE MID-UPR 30S AREA WIDE
WITH MODEL SUITES IN GOOD AGREEMENT...EVEN DESPITE MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. GUSTY NW WINDS ON CONTINUING STRONG CAA WILL MAKE FOR WIND
CHILL VALS IN THE MID- UPR 20S THIS AFTERNOON. UNIDERECTIONAL WIND
PROFILES IN THE WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER SUGGEST WINDS AOA 25KT
ALOFT MAKING IT TO THE SFC IN THE FORM OF GUSTS DURING PEAK
DAYTIME HEATING THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHEST WINDS STILL EXPECTED
ACROSS THE OBX WITH MARGINAL WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA BEING MET
THERE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EXPOSED SOUNDSIDE AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUE...WINDS BEGIN TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS DEEP
TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS OFF THE COASTAL WATERS AND CAA DIMINSHES. WINDS
WILL REMAIN HIGH ACROSS OBX AS DEEPENING LOW WELL OFF THE EAST
COAST PROVIDES TIGHTER GRADIENT HERE. SFC HIGH PRES WILL RIDGE
INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST...WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AFTER
06Z. WITH TD`S EXPECTED INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TONIGHT...TEMPS
WILL PLUMMET INTO THE MID TO UPPER TEENS INLAND WITH 20S OBX DUE
TO CONTINUED MIXING HERE.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM TUE...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER
THE SE WED. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOUT 10 DEG BELOW NORMAL FOR
WED...WITH HIGHS LIKELY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WED NIGHT INTO THU.
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO LOOK VERY LIMITED WITH THIS FEATURE SO AT
THIS TIME DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY IMPACTS ON SENSIBLE WX...OTHER
THAN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. EXPECT A GRADUAL TEMP WARMUP THROUGH
THE PERIOD AS LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND UPPER HEIGHTS BUILD.
BY THE WEEKEND TEMPS LIKELY REBOUNDING INTO UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S.
THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN WILL COME SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AS
SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE MERGES WITH A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
DIGGING ACROSS THE MID WEST. UNCERTAINLY IN THE FORECAST INCREASES
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MODELS NOT IN BEST AGREEMENT RESOLVING A
POSITIVELY TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE SOUTH. SOME SOLUTIONS DEVELOP A
CUTOFF LOW ACROSS ERN TX AND THE DEEP SOUTH MON INTO TUE WHILE
OTHER SOLUTIONS ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE KEEPING AN OPEN WAVE. HAVE
FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE FAIRLY CLOSELY LATE IN THE PERIOD UNTIL
MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUE...MID CLOUD DECK ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER THROUGH ABOUT 12Z. CEILINGS SHOULD
GENERALLY BE AROUND 5 TO 7K FT AND SHOULD SCATTER OUT BY TUESDAY
MORNING. DO NOT SEE CLOUD BASES GOING BELOW THE VFR CATEGORY AND
ANY FLURRIES THAT OCCUR THROUGH 12Z WILL NOT LIMIT VSBYS BELOW 6
MI.
GUSTY WINDS AROUND 25 KT WILL BE COMMON DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS
AS STRONG CAA WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WILL BE MAXIMIZED THROUGH AROUND 22Z. WINDS WILL DIMINISH QUITE
RAPIDLY BY 00Z...BECOMING LIGHT AFTER 02Z.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM TUE...PREDOMINATE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUE...GALE FORCE WINDS STILL APPEAR LIKELY THROUGH
TODAY AS DEEP TROUGH TRANSLATES EAST THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS
TODAY. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG CAA. WITH A WELL MIXED
MBL TODAY...SHOULD SEE SUSTAINED WINDS AOA 30KT WITH GUSTS ABOVE
35 KT THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY OVER ALL THE WATERS INCLUDING THE
SOUNDS. WINDS SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS
EAST OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...AND GALES WILL BE REPLACED WITH
SCA OVER THE SOUNDS AROUND 00Z...AND A BIT LATER FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS. SEAS WILL BE MAXIMIZED AT 7 TO 8 FEET OVER THE OUTER
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS TODAY.
MAXIMUM WATER RISES OF 1 TO 2 FEET STILL EXPECTED ON SOUNDSIDE OF
THE OBX TODAY DUE TO THE STRONG NW WINDS...WITH SUBSEQUENT LOW
WATER LEVELS OF 1 TO 2 FEET ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUNDS AND THE
RIVER BASINS...ESPECIALLY THE TAR AND NEUSE.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 230 AM TUE...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER
THE SE US THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE PERIOD. NW/W WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY...WITH SUBSEQUENT SEAS
SUBSIDING BELOW 6FT WED MORNING. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE WATERS WED NIGHT/THU. PREDOMINATE W/SW WINDS EXPECTED
LATE WED THROUGH SAT. MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP WINDS AOB 20 KT AND
SEAS AOB 5 FT...SO NOT ANTICIPATING ADDITIONAL SCA`S AFTER WED
MORNING. NEXT SIGNIFICANT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL LIKELY APPROACH THE
WATERS LATE THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR NCZ103-104.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NCZ103-104.
MARINE...LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ130-
135.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ130-135.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ150-152-154-
156-158.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TL
NEAR TERM...TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...SK/CQD
AVIATION...CQD/TL
MARINE...CQD/TL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
1019 AM EST TUE JAN 3 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC AIRMASS REMAINS TODAY. WEAKER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. MODERATING TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
STUBBORN LAKE MICHIGAN-ENHANCED BAND OF SHSN CONTINUES TO LINGER
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA. RUC SEEMS TO BE STRUGGLING
WITH THIS BAND BUT LOCAL HI-RES MODELS HAVE A BETTER HANDLE AND
LINGER THIS BAND AT LEAST INTO EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE IT BEGINS TO
DISSIPATE. HAVE ALTERED POPS TO THIS THINKING. MEANWHILE...UPSLOPE
SHSN WILL ALSO CONTINUE IN THE MOUNTAINS. WILL LIKELY ALLOW
NON-MOUNTAIN PORTION OF ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT NOON DUE TO THE
EXPECTED AFTERNOON DECREASING TREND...ALTHOUGH ANOTHER LOCALIZED
INCH OF ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE IN THE LAKE EFFECT BAND. 1-3
ADDITIONAL INCHES IS EXPECTED IN THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN MOUNTAIN
UPSLOPE ZONE. TEMPS GENERALLY GOOD AND ONLY MADE MINOR CHANGES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ONE CLIPPER TYPE FEATURE TO CONTEND WITH WED AFTN/EVE...OTHERWISE
LOOKING FOR MODERATING TREND TOWARD END OF WEEK AS FLOW TURNS MORE
ZONAL. AFOREMENTIONED CLIPPER SWINGS THRU WITH LIMITED
LIFT/MOISTURE. COULD SEE A FEW SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES ACROSS THE
NORTH WITH PASSAGE...BUT ELECTED TO KEEP OUT OF WX ATTM. BEHIND
SYS...DID INSERT FLURRY MENTION ALONG AND EAST OF I79...BUMPING UP
POPS SOME ACROSS NORTHERN MTNS. VERY BRIEF WINDOW OF STOUT NW FLOW
/40KTS H85/...LESS THAN 6 HRS IN DURATION. MOISTURE/LIFT STAYS OUT
OF DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER...REACHING SATURATION 8-10C WHICH IS
MARGINAL FOR CRYSTAL GROWTH. LIMITED ANY ACCUMULATION TO LESS THAN
AN INCH IN NORTHERN MTNS WED NIGHT. WITH A WELL MIXED
ATMOSPHERE...KEPT OVERNIGHT LOWS SOMEWHAT UNIFORM.
UPR TROF AXIS SHIFTS EAST ON THU WITH WAA COMMENCING AS UPR HEIGHTS
RECOVER. THIS WILL ALLOW SFC TEMPS TO MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL ON THU
AMID ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...BEFORE CLIMBING ABV NORMAL FOR FRI. ELECTED
TO KEEP MTNS AND MTN VALLEYS ON COOL SIDE GIVEN SNOW COVER THOUGH.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR MUCH OF THIS WINTER...MODELS ARE IN STRONG
DISAGREEMENT...YES DISAGREEMENT...WITH HANDLING OF A SOUTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM IN THE SPLIT FLOW UPPER PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND. INITIALLY...
HEIGHTS RISE SIGNIFICANTLY AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDE EAST FOR
THE END OF THE WORKWEEK...WHICH MEANS DRY WITH A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP
INTO THE 50S FRIDAY. MODELS ALSO AGREE ON A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH
AND EAST OF OUR CWA (COUNTY WARNING AREA) LATER SATURDAY...WITH SOME
LIGHT RAIN AS TEMPERATURES WILL EASILY BE WARM ENOUGH IN THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
THEREAFTER...THE BIG QUESTION IS WHAT HAPPENS TO A SOUTHERN PLAINS
UPPER LOW THAT EJECTS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SOLUTIONS RANGE
FROM THE 12Z GFS BEING FLAT WITH IT AND TAKING IT WELL SOUTH OF US
AS NORTHERN STREAM BECOMES DOMINANT...TO THE 00Z ECMWF LIFTING A
WELL DEFINED SYSTEM TO THE MIDATLANTIC STATES AND OVERSPREADING AT
LEAST THE SOUTHEASTERN TWO THIRDS OF OUR CWA WITH PRECIP. OTHER
MODELS ARE SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN. THUS...EVEN THO THE GFS IS VERY
INCONSISTENT RUN TO RUN...WE AND HPC HAVE TAKEN A COMPROMISE WHICH
STALLS THE FRONT SOUTH AND EAST OF US...ALLOWING WEAK WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE TO MOVE ALONG THE FRONT AND AFFECT THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF
OUR CWA FOR LATER THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. WILL KEEP THE NORTHWEST
HALF OF CWA DRY. FOR TEMPS...GIVEN THIS SOLUTION DOES NOT ALLOW
ENOUGH COLD AIR TO BE INGESTED INTO THE PRECIP SHIELD FOR
SNOW...UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. WILL KEEP PRECIP LIGHT IN ANY EVENT THIS WEEKEND
FOR NOW. LOOK FOR GENERALLY LOWER TO MID 40S LOW LANDS FOR HIGHS
THIS WEEKEND AND MID TO UPPER 30S FOR LOWS.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STRATUS DECK WITH SNOW WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING...WITH THE
LOWEST CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN THE MOUNTAINS. DEEPER MOISTURE
PULLS OUT DURING THE MORNING...WHICH WILL CAUSE VISIBILITIES TO
IMPROVE SOME...ALTHOUGH LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE DURING THE DAY.
SKIES WILL CLEAR TONIGHT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE:MODERATE.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: EXPECT OBSERVATIONS TO BOUNCE IN AND OUT OF
SNOW SHOWERS.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
EST 1HRLY 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
CRW CONSISTENCY L L L L M M M M M M H H
HTS CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M
EKN CONSISTENCY H M M M M M L L M M M M
PKB CONSISTENCY L L L L L M M M M M H H
CKB CONSISTENCY L M M L L L M M M M M M
AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY...
NO IFR EXPECTED UNTIL POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE MOUNTAINS.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR WVZ015-016-
018-024>031-033-034.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
WVZ032-035>040-046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VAZ003-004.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/RPY/30
NEAR TERM...CL
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...RPY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1122 AM EST TUE JAN 3 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
THE COLDEST AIR SO FAR THIS WINTER SEASON WILL CONTINUE TO SWEEP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO PENNSYLVANIA TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. FREQUENT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND SOME HEAVY SQUALLS
WILL BE CONCENTRATED ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN MOUNTAINS AND LAUREL
HIGHLANDS. SNOW SHOWERS OF LESSER INTENSITY AND BRIEF SQUALLS WILL
DRIFT INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AT TIMES. A WARMUP TO
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED LATER THIS WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER
SURGE OF COLD AIR APPROACHES FOR LATE IN THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE
COLD AIR...WESTERLY FLOW AND WARM LAKES COULD PRODUCE MORE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW ACROSS WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA NEXT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WILL CANCEL POTTER WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...WITH THE MAIN FOCUS
ON THE DOMINANT SNOWBAND WITH LAKE HURON CONNECTION WHICH HAS
INTENSIFIED AGAIN IN THE PAST HOUR. WILL EXTEND THE WEST CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THROUGH 00Z TONIGHT...COINCIDING
WITH EXPIRATION TIMES FOR THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAIN AND LAUREL
HIGHLAND WARNINGS.
DOMINANT SNOWBAND WITH LAKE HURON CONNECTION CONTINUES TO WAGGLE
SW/NE OVER THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS THIS
MORNING. THE BAND HAS WEAKENED EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
VISIBILITIES IN ONLY A FEW PLACES AS LOW AS 3/4 MILE AT THIS TIME.
LAPSE RATES REMAIN STEEP THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS THE COLDEST 850
MB AIR TRACKS ACROSS NORTHEAST PA WHILE A COMPACT SHORTWAVE TRACKS
THROUGH THE LAURELS AND INTO NO VA. THIS SHOULD KEEP SOME
ACCUMULATING SNOW GOING ACROSS THE LAURELS AND SNOWBELT REGION
THROUGH THIS EVENING.
HIGH RESOLUTION HRRR AND NAM12 INDICATE ORGANIZATION AND INTENSITY
OF SNOW BANDS DECREASING SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER 20Z...AS INVERSION
HEIGHTS START TO CRASH AND BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS MODERATE. HOWEVER...
AS PREVIOUS SHIFT NOTED...NAM BUFKIT SHOWS A CROSS-HAIR SIGNATURE
OF STRONG UVVEL WITHIN THE FAVORABLE THERMAL RIBBON FOR DENDRITIC
SNOW GROWTH. THIS SHOULD BRING MOST AREAS OF CENTRAL PA ANOTHER
COATING TO ONE INCH OF SNOW...WITH A COUPLE INCHES OR MORE OF NEW
FLUFFY /WIND-WHIPPED SNOW FALLING ACROSS THE NW MTNS AND SNOWBELT
OF WARREN COUNTY.
CONTINUED DEEP-LAYER COLD ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPS STEADY OR SLOWLY
FALLING...IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
COUNTIES...AND MID TO UPPER 20S IN THE SUSQ VALLEY. WIND CHILLS
WILL FREQUENTLY DIP BELOW ZERO TODAY ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN
MTNS...AND HOLD IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS ELSEWHERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
WARMER AIR ALOFT MOVES IN TONIGHT DIMINISHING THE SNOW SHOWERS
RATHER QUICKLY. STEEP LLVL LAPSE RATES...WILL COMBINE WITH BACKING
BLYR WINDS AND WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WITHIN THE 275-285K THETA
CHANNEL TO MAINTAIN BKN-OVC/SHALLOW STRATO CU CLOUDS AND SOME
INTERMITTENT VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES ACROSS THE WRN MTNS
TONIGHT...WHILE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE ANTICIPATED ELSEWHERE.
COLDEST TEMPS OF THE WINTER SEASON SO FAR IN MANY LOCATIONS WILL
OCCUR TONIGHT. MINS WILL BE IN THE 5-10F RANGE ACROSS THE NW HALF TO
TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA...WITH LOWER TEENS THROUGHOUT THE SE ZONES.
THE NEXT WEAK...CLIPPER SYSTEM SLIDES SE FROM THE GLAKES REGION
WEDNESDAY LEADING TO INCREASING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A PERIOD OF LIGHT
SNOW...OR MORE LIKELY SNOW SHOWERS /MAINLY ACROSS THE NW HALF OF
PENN/. LIGHT ACCUMS OF A COATING TO ONE INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
THE NW MTNS.
MAX TEMPS WED WILL BE 5 TO 8 DEG F WARMER ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NW
ZONES AND AT LEAST A FEW DEG F HIGHER THROUGHOUT THE LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE SECOND HALF OF THIS WEEK FEATURES GRADUALLY RISING MID/UPPER
LEVEL HEIGHTS AND A TREND TOWARD ZONAL FLOW. ASIDE FROM SOME
/LIGHTER/ LES AND OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NW MTNS AND
LAURELS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY...DRY WEATHER WITH A
RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL FOLLOW FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS
AN POTENT LOW PRESSURE AREA SCOOTS BY ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA.
A COLD FRONT /EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE SERN CANADA LOW/ MAY LINK UP
WITH AN INVERTED LLVL TROUGH EXTENDED NORTH FROM THE TENN VALLEY OR
SRN APPALACHIANS TO BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME LIGHT
SNOW LATER IN THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE REGION
IN STRONG NW FLOW. STRONGEST BAND THROUGH MID MORNING WILL BE
LOCATED IN THE VICINITY OF KJST-KAOO...AND WITH INTENSITIES NEAR
40 DBZ IT WILL PRODUCE IFR CONDITIONS AS IT SLOWLY DRIFTS SOUTH
THROUGH MID MORNING. ELSEWHERE...LOCAL REDUCTIONS REMAIN POSSIBLE
IN LESS INTENSE SNOWBANDS IN THE NORTHERN TIER AND CENTRAL
MTNS...THOUGH PREVAILING CONDITIONS WILL BE MVFR/VFR.
CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR IN MOST PLACES BY LATE MORNING AHEAD OF
ONE LAST SHORTWAVE SLIDING DOWN BACK SIDE OF TROUGH. THIS S/W
COULD BRING ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW TO NW MTNS AND LAURELS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT INTENSITY SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT WITH MVFR
RESTRICTIONS. OTHERWISE...THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT WILL SEE
IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS IN...KEEPING
CONDITIONS VFR THROUGH WED.
GUSTY NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS TO 25 KTS WILL CONTINUE DURING THE
DAY TODAY...BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THIS EVENING AND
ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...OCNL MVFR IN -SN NW. OTHERWISE PRIMARILY VFR WITH ISOLD
MVFR IN -SHSN.
WED...VFR.
WED NIGHT-SAT...PRIMARILY VFR. OCNL MVFR POSS IN NW MTNS/LAURELS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
PAZ004-005.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ024-
033.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ010-
011-017.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN
AVIATION...RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1038 AM EST TUE JAN 3 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
THE COLDEST AIR SO FAR THIS WINTER SEASON WILL CONTINUE TO SWEEP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO PENNSYLVANIA TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. FREQUENT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND SOME HEAVY SQUALLS
WILL BE CONCENTRATED ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN MOUNTAINS AND LAUREL
HIGHLANDS. SNOW SHOWERS OF LESSER INTENSITY AND BRIEF SQUALLS WILL
DRIFT INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AT TIMES. A WARMUP TO
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED LATER THIS WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER
SURGE OF COLD AIR APPROACHES FOR LATE IN THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE
COLD AIR...WESTERLY FLOW AND WARM LAKES COULD PRODUCE MORE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW ACROSS WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA NEXT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL NOON TODAY/...
DOMINANT SNOWBAND WITH LAKE HURON CONNECTION CONTINUES TO WAGGLE
SW/NE OVER THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS THIS
MORNING. THE BAND HAS WEAKENED EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
VISIBILITIES IN ONLY A FEW PLACES AS LOW AS 3/4 MILE AT THIS TIME.
LAPSE RATES REMAIN STEEP THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS THE COLDEST 850
MB AIR TRACKS ACROSS NORTHEAST PA WHILE A COMPACT SHORTWAVE TRACKS
THROUGH THE LAURELS AND INTO NO VA. THIS SHOULD KEEP SOME
ACCUMULATING SNOW GOING ACROSS THE LAURELS AND SNOWBELT REGION
THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND WILL MAKE NO CHANGES TO CURRENT
HEADLINES. WILL ALLOW WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF THE
WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS TO EXPIRE ON TIME
AT 17Z AS CONDITIONS HAVE OVERALL IMPROVED FROM EARLIER TODAY.
HIGH RESOLUTION HRRR AND NAM12 INDICATE ORGANIZATION AND INTENSITY
OF SNOW BANDS DECREASING SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER 20Z...AS INVERSION
HEIGHTS START TO CRASH AND BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS MODERATE. HOWEVER...
AS PREVIOUS SHIFT NOTED...NAM BUFKIT SHOWS A CROSS-HAIR SIGNATURE
OF STRONG UVVEL WITHIN THE FAVORABLE THERMAL RIBBON FOR DENDRITIC
SNOW GROWTH. THIS SHOULD BRING MOST AREAS OF CENTRAL PA ANOTHER
COATING TO ONE INCH OF SNOW...WITH A COUPLE INCHES OR MORE OF NEW
FLUFFY /WIND-WHIPPED SNOW FALLING ACROSS THE NW MTNS AND SNOWBELT
OF WARREN COUNTY.
CONTINUED DEEP-LAYER COLD ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPS STEADY OR SLOWLY
FALLING...IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
COUNTIES...AND MID TO UPPER 20S IN THE SUSQ VALLEY. WIND CHILLS
WILL FREQUENTLY DIP BELOW ZERO TODAY ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN
MTNS...AND HOLD IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS ELSEWHERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /NOON TODAY THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
WARMER AIR ALOFT MOVES IN TONIGHT DIMINISHING THE SNOW SHOWERS
RATHER QUICKLY. STEEP LLVL LAPSE RATES...WILL COMBINE WITH BACKING
BLYR WINDS AND WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WITHIN THE 275-285K THETA
CHANNEL TO MAINTAIN BKN-OVC/SHALLOW STRATO CU CLOUDS AND SOME
INTERMITTENT VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES ACROSS THE WRN MTNS
TONIGHT...WHILE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE ANTICIPATED ELSEWHERE.
COLDEST TEMPS OF THE WINTER SEASON SO FAR IN MANY LOCATIONS WILL
OCCUR TONIGHT. MINS WILL BE IN THE 5-10F RANGE ACROSS THE NW HALF TO
TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA...WITH LOWER TEENS THROUGHOUT THE SE ZONES.
THE NEXT WEAK...CLIPPER SYSTEM SLIDES SE FROM THE GLAKES REGION
WEDNESDAY LEADING TO INCREASING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A PERIOD OF LIGHT
SNOW...OR MORE LIKELY SNOW SHOWERS /MAINLY ACROSS THE NW HALF OF
PENN/. LIGHT ACCUMS OF A COATING TO ONE INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
THE NW MTNS.
MAX TEMPS WED WILL BE 5 TO 8 DEG F WARMER ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NW
ZONES AND AT LEAST A FEW DEG F HIGHER THROUGHOUT THE LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE SECOND HALF OF THIS WEEK FEATURES GRADUALLY RISING MID/UPPER
LEVEL HEIGHTS AND A TREND TOWARD ZONAL FLOW. ASIDE FROM SOME
/LIGHTER/ LES AND OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NW MTNS AND
LAURELS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY...DRY WEATHER WITH A
RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL FOLLOW FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS
AN POTENT LOW PRESSURE AREA SCOOTS BY ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA.
A COLD FRONT /EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE SERN CANADA LOW/ MAY LINK UP
WITH AN INVERTED LLVL TROUGH EXTENDED NORTH FROM THE TENN VALLEY OR
SRN APPALACHIANS TO BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME LIGHT
SNOW LATER IN THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE REGION
IN STRONG NW FLOW. STRONGEST BAND THROUGH MID MORNING WILL BE
LOCATED IN THE VICINITY OF KJST-KAOO...AND WITH INTENSITIES NEAR
40 DBZ IT WILL PRODUCE IFR CONDITIONS AS IT SLOWLY DRIFTS SOUTH
THROUGH MID MORNING. ELSEWHERE...LOCAL REDUCTIONS REMAIN POSSIBLE
IN LESS INTENSE SNOWBANDS IN THE NORTHERN TIER AND CENTRAL
MTNS...THOUGH PREVAILING CONDITIONS WILL BE MVFR/VFR.
CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR IN MOST PLACES BY LATE MORNING AHEAD OF
ONE LAST SHORTWAVE SLIDING DOWN BACK SIDE OF TROUGH. THIS S/W
COULD BRING ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW TO NW MTNS AND LAURELS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT INTENSITY SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT WITH MVFR
RESTRICTIONS. OTHERWISE...THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT WILL SEE
IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS IN...KEEPING
CONDITIONS VFR THROUGH WED.
GUSTY NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS TO 25 KTS WILL CONTINUE DURING THE
DAY TODAY...BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THIS EVENING AND
ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...OCNL MVFR IN -SN NW. OTHERWISE PRIMARILY VFR WITH ISOLD
MVFR IN -SHSN.
WED...VFR.
WED NIGHT-SAT...PRIMARILY VFR. OCNL MVFR POSS IN NW MTNS/LAURELS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
PAZ004-005.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR PAZ006-010-
011-017.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ024-
033.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN
AVIATION...RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
746 AM EST TUE JAN 3 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
THE COLDEST AIR SO FAR THIS WINTER SEASON WILL CONTINUE TO SWEEP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO PENNSYLVANIA TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. FREQUENT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND SOME HEAVY SQUALLS
WILL BE CONCENTRATED ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN MOUNTAINS AND LAUREL
HIGHLANDS. SNOW SHOWERS OF LESSER INTENSITY AND BRIEF SQUALLS WILL
DRIFT INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AT TIMES. A WARMUP TO
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED LATER THIS WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER
SURGE OF COLD AIR APPROACHES FOR LATE IN THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE
COLD AIR...WESTERLY FLOW AND WARM LAKES COULD PRODUCE MORE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW ACROSS WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA NEXT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL NOON TODAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF SNOW SHOWERS...AND
NARROW BANDS OF SQUALLS ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN MTNS OF PENN THROUGH
MIDDAY TODAY.
WILL HAVE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESSION OF A COMPACT UPPER VORT
MAX...HEADED OUR WAY FROM FAR SRN ONTARIO THIS MORNING THROUGH THE
MIDDAY HOURS.
LATEST RUC AND 06Z NAM INDICATE AN INITIAL AREA OF STEEP 850-700 MB
LAPSE RATES /OF OVER 8C/KM/ SETTLING SOUTH OF THE MASON/DIXON LINE
EARLY TODAY...WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER VORT LOBE GENERATING A
SECOND AREA OF ENHANCED LOW TO MID LEVEL INSTABILITY DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS APPROX THE SW THIRD OF THE CWA.
NAM BUFKIT SHOWS A CROSS-HAIR SIGNATURE OF STRONG UVVEL WITHIN THE
FAVORABLE THERMAL RIBBON FOR DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH. THIS EFFICIENT
SNOW MAKING MACHINE WILL BRING MOST AREAS OF CENTRAL OPEN ANOTHER
COATING TO ONE INCH OF SNOW...WITH SEVERAL INCHES OR MORE OF NEW
FLUFFY/WIND-WHIPPED SNOW FALLING ACROSS THE WRN MTNS AND SNOWBELT OF
WARREN COUNTY.
CONTINUED DEEP-LAYER COLD ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPS STEADY OR SLOWLY
FALLING...IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
COUNTIES...AND MID TO UPPER 20S IN THE SUSQ VALLEY.
WIND CHILLS WILL FREQUENTLY DIP BELOW ZERO TODAY ACROSS THE NRN AND
WRN MTNS...AND HOLD IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS ELSEWHERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /NOON TODAY THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
WARMER AIR ALOFT MOVES IN TONIGHT DIMINISHING THE SNOW SHOWERS
RATHER QUICKLY. STEEP LLVL LAPSE RATES...WILL COMBINE WITH BACKING
BLYR WINDS AND WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WITHIN THE 275-285K THETA
CHANNEL TO MAINTAIN BKN-OVC/SHALLOW STRATO CU CLOUDS AND SOME
INTERMITTENT VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES ACROSS THE WRN MTNS
TONIGHT...WHILE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE ANTICIPATED ELSEWHERE.
COLDEST TEMPS OF THE WINTER SEASON SO FAR IN MANY LOCATIONS WILL
OCCUR TONIGHT. MINS WILL BE IN THE 5-10F RANGE ACROSS THE NW HALF TO
TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA...WITH LOWER TEENS THROUGHOUT THE SE ZONES.
THE NEXT WEAK...CLIPPER SYSTEM SLIDES SE FROM THE GLAKES REGION
WEDNESDAY LEADING TO INCREASING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A PERIOD OF LIGHT
SNOW...OR MORE LIKELY SNOW SHOWERS /MAINLY ACROSS THE NW HALF OF
PENN/. LIGHT ACCUMS OF A COATING TO ONE INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
THE NW MTNS.
MAX TEMPS WED WILL BE 5 TO 8 DEG F WARMER ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NW
ZONES AND AT LEAST A FEW DEG F HIGHER THROUGHOUT THE LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE SECOND HALF OF THIS WEEK FEATURES GRADUALLY RISING MID/UPPER
LEVEL HEIGHTS AND A TREND TOWARD ZONAL FLOW. ASIDE FROM SOME
/LIGHTER/ LES AND OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NW MTNS AND
LAURELS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY...DRY WEATHER WITH A
RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL FOLLOW FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS
AN POTENT LOW PRESSURE AREA SCOOTS BY ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA.
A COLD FRONT /EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE SERN CANADA LOW/ MAY LINK UP
WITH AN INVERTED LLVL TROUGH EXTENDED NORTH FROM THE TENN VALLEY OR
SRN APPALACHIANS TO BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME LIGHT
SNOW LATER IN THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE REGION
IN STRONG NW FLOW. STRONGEST BAND THROUGH MID MORNING WILL BE
LOCATED IN THE VICINITY OF KJST-KAOO...AND WITH INTENSITIES NEAR
40 DBZ IT WILL PRODUCE IFR CONDITIONS AS IT SLOWLY DRIFTS SOUTH
THROUGH MID MORNING. ELSEWHERE...LOCAL REDUCTIONS REMAIN POSSIBLE
IN LESS INTENSE SNOWBANDS IN THE NORTHERN TIER AND CENTRAL
MTNS...THOUGH PREVAILING CONDITIONS WILL BE MVFR/VFR.
CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR IN MOST PLACES BY LATE MORNING AHEAD OF
ONE LAST SHORTWAVE SLIDING DOWN BACK SIDE OF TROUGH. THIS S/W
COULD BRING ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW TO NW MTNS AND LAURELS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT INTENSITY SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT WITH MVFR
RESTRICTIONS. OTHERWISE...THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT WILL SEE
IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS IN...KEEPING
CONDITIONS VFR THROUGH WED.
GUSTY NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS TO 25 KTS WILL CONTINUE DURING THE
DAY TODAY...BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THIS EVENING AND
ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...OCNL MVFR IN -SN NW. OTHERWISE PRIMARILY VFR WITH ISOLD
MVFR IN -SHSN.
WED...VFR.
WED NIGHT-SAT...PRIMARILY VFR. OCNL MVFR POSS IN NW MTNS/LAURELS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
PAZ004-005.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR PAZ006-010-
011-017.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ024-
033.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN
AVIATION...RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
455 AM EST TUE JAN 3 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
THE COLDEST AIR SO FAR THIS WINTER SEASON WILL CONTINUE TO SWEEP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO PENNSYLVANIA TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. FREQUENT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND SOME HEAVY SQUALLS
WILL BE CONCENTRATED ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN MOUNTAINS AND LAUREL
HIGHLANDS. SNOW SHOWERS OF LESSER INTENSITY AND BRIEF SQUALLS WILL
DRIFT INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AT TIMES. A WARMUP TO
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED LATER THIS WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER
SURGE OF COLD AIR APPROACHES FOR LATE IN THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE
COLD AIR...WESTERLY FLOW AND WARM LAKES COULD PRODUCE MORE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW ACROSS WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA NEXT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL NOON TODAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF SNOW SHOWERS...AND
NARROW BANDS OF SQUALLS ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN MTNS OF PENN THROUGH
MIDDAY TODAY.
WILL HAVE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESSION OF A COMPACT UPPER VORT
MAX...HEADED OUR WAY FROM FAR SRN ONTARIO THIS MORNING THROUGH THE
MIDDAY HOURS.
LATEST RUC AND 06Z NAM INDICATE AN INITIAL AREA OF STEEP 850-700 MB
LAPSE RATES /OF OVER 8C/KM/ SETTLING SOUTH OF THE MASON/DIXON LINE
EARLY TODAY...WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER VORT LOBE GENERATING A
SECOND AREA OF ENHANCED LOW TO MID LEVEL INSTABILITY DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS APPROX THE SW THIRD OF THE CWA.
NAM BUFKIT SHOWS A CROSS-HAIR SIGNATURE OF STRONG UVVEL WITHIN THE
FAVORABLE THERMAL RIBBON FOR DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH. THIS EFFICIENT
SNOW MAKING MACHINE WILL BRING MOST AREAS OF CENTRAL OPEN ANOTHER
COATING TO ONE INCH OF SNOW...WITH SEVERAL INCHES OR MORE OF NEW
FLUFFY/WIND-WHIPPED SNOW FALLING ACROSS THE WRN MTNS AND SNOWBELT OF
WARREN COUNTY.
CONTINUED DEEP-LAYER COLD ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPS STEADY OR SLOWLY
FALLING...IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
COUNTIES...AND MID TO UPPER 20S IN THE SUSQ VALLEY.
WIND CHILLS WILL FREQUENTLY DIP BELOW ZERO TODAY ACROSS THE NRN AND
WRN MTNS...AND HOLD IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS ELSEWHERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
WARMER AIR ALOFT MOVES IN TONIGHT DIMINISHING THE SNOW SHOWERS
RATHER QUICKLY. STEEP LLVL LAPSE RATES...WILL COMBINE WITH BACKING
BLYR WINDS AND WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WITHIN THE 275-285K THETA
CHANNEL TO MAINTAIN BKN-OVC/SHALLOW STRATO CU CLOUDS AND SOME
INTERMITTENT VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES ACROSS THE WRN MTNS
TONIGHT...WHILE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE ANTICIPATED ELSEWHERE.
COLDEST TEMPS OF THE WINTER SEASON SO FAR IN MANY LOCATIONS WILL
OCCUR TONIGHT. MINS WILL BE IN THE 5-10F RANGE ACROSS THE NW HALF TO
TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA...WITH LOWER TEENS THROUGHOUT THE SE ZONES.
THE NEXT WEAK...CLIPPER SYSTEM SLIDES SE FROM THE GLAKES REGION
WEDNESDAY LEADING TO INCREASING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A PERIOD OF LIGHT
SNOW...OR MORE LIKELY SNOW SHOWERS /MAINLY ACROSS THE NW HALF OF
PENN/. LIGHT ACCUMS OF A COATING TO ONE INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
THE NW MTNS.
MAX TEMPS WED WILL BE 5 TO 8 DEG F WARMER ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NW
ZONES AND AT LEAST A FEW DEG F HIGHER THROUGHOUT THE LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE SECOND HALF OF THIS WEEK FEATURES GRADUALLY RISING MID/UPPER
LEVEL HEIGHTS AND A TREND TOWARD ZONAL FLOW. ASIDE FROM SOME
/LIGHTER/ LES AND OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NW MTNS AND
LAURELS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY...DRY WEATHER WITH A
RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL FOLLOW FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS
AN POTENT LOW PRESSURE AREA SCOOTS BY ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA.
A COLD FRONT /EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE SERN CANADA LOW/ MAY LINK UP
WITH AN INVERTED LLVL TROUGH EXTENDED NORTH FROM THE TENN VALLEY OR
SRN APPALACHIANS TO BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME LIGHT
SNOW LATER IN THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE ELEVATED REGIONS IN THE NW
MTNS AND THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS...WHILE WINDS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
DIMINISH FOR THE REST OF THE REGION.
BIGGER STORY REMAINS NUMEROUS LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THAT WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE NW MTNS /KBFD/ AND UPSLOPE SNOWS IN THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS /KJST/ AND AT TIMES AOO...UNV AND IPT THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. STRONG MULTI LAKE CONNECTION WILL ALLOWED THESE LAKE
ENHANCED BANDS TO OCCASIONALLY PROPAGATE INTO CENTRAL MTNS AS
WELL. PERIODS OF MVFR-IFR CIGS WILL OCCUR IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
THE WEST...AND OCCASIONALLY INTO THE CENTRAL MTNS. JST AND BFD
WILL REACH LIFR AT TIMES WITH MAINLY MVFR TO IFR IN THE SNOW
BANDS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF AND IN BETWEEN THE
HEAVIER SNOW BANDS. HAVE USED MAINLY TEMPO GROUPS TO INDICATE
SUCH. THE SUSQ VALLEY WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...OCNL MVFR IN -SN NW. OTHERWISE PRIMARILY VFR WITH ISOLD
MVFR IN -SHSN.
WED-SAT...PRIMARILY VFR.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
PAZ004-005.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR PAZ006-010-
011-017.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ024-
033.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT
AVIATION...CERU/RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
244 PM CST TUE JAN 3 2012
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTING EAST OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THIS
AFTERNOON...IN RESPONSE TO MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS OCCURRING OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH. AHEAD OF THIS
TROUGH...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION.
A WARM FRONT LIES FURTHER UPSTREAM ACROSS THE PLAINS BUT THE RAOB
NETWORK SHOW AMPLE DRY AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS AND A LACK OF PRECIP.
AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...CONCERNS FOCUS ON
SMALL POP CHANCES AND TEMPS.
TONIGHT...SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL SLIDE
SOUTHEAST AND BECOME ELONGATED. COMBINED WITH LIFT OVER A
H850 WARM FRONT...THE WAVE HAS SOME DECENT FORCING WITH IT. BUT
SOUNDINGS UPSTREAM REMAIN PRETTY DRY IN THE MID-LEVELS...AND CANNOT
FIND ANY PRECIP REPORTED IN THE OBS OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND
SASKATCHEWAN. AS A RESULT...WILL REMOVE THE LIGHT SNOW SHOWER AND
FLURRY MENTION. WINDS WILL BE STRENGTHENING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE AND MAY FIND IT DIFFICULT FOR WINDS TO
DECOUPLE. WITH THE BKN MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER...TEMPS WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER THAN LAST NITE. LOWS RANGING THROUGH THE TEENS.
WEDNESDAY...POTENT 150KT JET STREAK WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES IN THE AFTERNOON. LEFT FRONT QUAD OF THE JET
WILL PASS TO THE EAST OF THE REGION...KEEPING ANY UPPER DIVERGENCE
FROM CREATING LIGHT PRECIP. WILL STILL SEE INCREASING MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS (ABOVE 9KFT OR SO) AFTER A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS IN THE MORNING. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO REBOUND TO
THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. OVERALL MAINLY
A QUIET AND RELATIVELY MILD PATTERN DURING THIS PERIOD.
UPPER HEIGHTS BUILD WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A WEAK
SURFACE HIGH RIDGE SLIDES OVER. UPPER FLOW BREAKS DOWN BRIEFLY AS
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WORKS OVER THE NORTHERN US REGION. A PERIOD
OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING A NEAR
STEADY TEMPERATURE TREND TO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES REGION WILL THEN SLIDE A WEAK COLD FRONT OVER THE STATE ON
FRIDAY. ANY PCPN WILL BE MINIMAL AND CONFINED WELL NORTH CLOSER TO
THE SYSTEM ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF CAA OVER LAKE SUPERIOR.
WHILE SURFACE RIDGING SETTLES BACK INTO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND
WITH THE WESTERN STATES UPPER RIDGE BUILDING...A CONTINUED PARADE
OF WEAK MID LEVEL SUBTLE SHORT WAVES ARE PROGGED TO DROP OVER THE
AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE LATELY...LITTLE
MOISTURE AVAILABLE WITH THESE PACIFIC ORIGIN SYSTEMS.
MEDIUM RANGE RUNS FLATTEN THE WESTERN RIDGE FOR THE START OF THE
NEW WEEK WITH BUILDING UPPER HEIGHTS FOR THE FORECAST AREA. ANOTHER
WARMING TREND IS ANTICIPATED WITH THE RETURN SOUTHWEST TO WEST
FLOW AS THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES WELL NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES REGION.
WILL GO ABOVE GUIDANCE NUMBERS THURSDAY NIGHT AS WELL AS NEXT WEEK
DUE TO THE WARM AIR ADVECTION. THE AMOUNT OF WARM UP WILL BE
TRICKY DUE TO THE LACK OF SNOW COVER WEST TO SOUTHWEST OF THE
AREA...BUT STILL NEED TO FACTOR IN A COLD GROUND/INVERSION AND
LOW SUN ANGLE...NOT TO MENTION SKY CONDITION.
&&
.AVIATION...SW WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH
THE EVENING JUST ABOVE THE INVERSION TO 35-40KTS. AS A
RESULT...KEPT A LLWS MENTION IN ALL TAFS. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH ONLY MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS OVERHEAD.
MPC
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MPC/TDH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
237 PM CST TUE JAN 3 2012
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
237 PM CST TUE JAN 3 2012
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON ANY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
TONIGHT...THEN THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE PATTERN THROUGH FRIDAY.
CURRENTLY AS OF 20Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED RIDGING PRETTY MUCH DOMINATING THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
U.S. INTO SOUTHERN CANADA...EXCLUDING A POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ENTERING THE WESTERN DAKOTAS...WHILE DEEP TROUGHING EXISTED
ALONG THE EAST COAST. STRONG WARM ADVECTION HAS BEEN OCCURRING AHEAD
OF THE WESTERN DAKOTAS SHORTWAVE...NOTED BY 850MB TEMPS THAT ROSE
NEARLY 15C AT ABR AND 8C AT MPX BETWEEN THE 00Z AND 12Z SOUNDINGS.
BOTH SOUNDINGS DEPICT A STRONG INVERSION...ESPECIALLY AT ABR...AND
IS TO BE EXPECTED THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH SHALLOW COLD AIRMASSES MORE
DOMINANT. DAYTIME MIXING THROUGH HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH HAS ALLOWED SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 20S OVER
THE FORECAST AREA...AND INTO THE 30S OVER SOUTHWEST MN INTO WESTERN
IOWA. AIR ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY WAS QUITE DRY AS WELL...WITH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OFF
THE 12Z GRB...MPX AND ABR SOUNDINGS OF 10C OR MORE FROM 950-650MB.
AT THE SURFACE...A WARM FRONT WAS LOCATED ALONG THE DAKOTAS/MN
BORDER...WITH BREEZY SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF IT INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
BEHIND THE FRONT...READINGS ARE IN THE 40S AND 50S OVER THE DAKOTAS.
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...MODELS PROG THE POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 06-12Z TONIGHT. IN ITS WAKE...40-70 METER
HEIGHT RISES ARE EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AT 500MB WHILE ANOTHER WEAK
SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTHEAST INTO UPPER MICHIGAN. MAIN CONCERN IS
WHETHER OR NOT THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CAN PRODUCE PRECIPITATION
TONIGHT. CERTAINLY THERE ARE DECENT 500MB HEIGHT FALLS...60-90
METERS...INDICATIVE OF THE DYNAMIC FORCING. HOWEVER...ISENTROPIC
LIFT PLOTS ON 285K-300K SURFACES SHOW LITTLE OR NO LIFT...AS WELL AS
PLENTY OF DRY AIR BETWEEN 850-600MB. THEREFORE...NOT EXPECTING ANY
PRECIPITATION WITH THE TROUGH. AFTER THIS...THE ONLY CONCERN IS
CLOUD COVER. THERE MAY BE SOME LOW CLOUDS IN THE WAKE OF THE
TROUGH...BUT MOST OF THESE ARE EXPECTED TO STAY NORTH AND EAST OF
THE AREA. ADDITIONAL MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO COME IN WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE...BUT MOST OF THESE CLOUDS SHOULD
STAY ALONG OR NORTHEAST OF I-94. REGARDING TEMPERATURES...LOWS
TONIGHT WILL END UP MUCH WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT...AIDED BY CLOUD
COVER AND THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT. PREVIOUS FORECAST LOWS SEEM
REASONABLE WHICH ONLY SHOW ABOUT A 5 DEGREE TEMPERATURE DROP FROM
CURRENT READINGS. GIVEN A WARMER START FOR TOMORROW AND 925MB TEMPS
CLIMBING TO -2C TO +1C...HIGHS SHOULD EASILY REACH THE 30S IN MOST
LOCATIONS. A FEW LOCATIONS IN NORTHEAST IOWA COULD EVEN REACH 40.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING...CURRENTLY
SEEN ON WATER VAPOR OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC...IS PROGGED TO
MOSTLY EJECT OUT AND DROP DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA COME FRIDAY IN A POSITIVELY TILTED FORM. AS THE
TROUGH HEADS EAST...A SURGE OF PACIFIC AIR ADVECTS EAST WITH IT INTO
THE FORECAST AREA...WARMED UP EVEN MORE IN RESPONSE TO DOWNSLOPING
OFF THE ROCKIES. 850MB TEMPS CLIMB FROM 0-2C AT 00Z THURSDAY TO AS
MUCH AS 8-12C AT 00Z FRIDAY. SOME COOL DOWN IN 850MB TEMPS IS
FORECAST FOR FRIDAY WITH READINGS DROPPING FROM 6-10C AT 12Z FRIDAY
TO -2 TO +2C BY 00Z SATURDAY...ALL IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING
TROUGH. ALTHOUGH A LOT OF THIS WARMING IS TAKING PLACE ALOFT...AGAIN
AS TO BE EXPECTED THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH A LOWER SUN ANGLE AND
SHORTER DAY LENGTH...THE LACK OF SNOW COVER WILL HELP WITH MIXING.
HOW WARM WE ACTUALLY GET IS THE BIG QUESTION. FIRST OFF...THIS TIME
PERIOD WILL END UP DRY DUE TO THE SERIOUS LACK OF MOISTURE BELOW
10000 FT AS SEEN ON MODEL SOUNDINGS. NOW REGARDING CLOUD COVER. A
STREAM OF MID-HIGH CLOUDS OVER WISCONSIN LATE WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO
PUSH SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THURSDAY...IN RESPONSE TO THE BUILDING
HEIGHTS ALOFT. ANOTHER SURGE OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS LOOKS TO CROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...IN THE WESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...BUT THESE APPEAR TO SCATTER OUT AND DROP
SOUTH FOR FRIDAY. THEREFORE...BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SHOULD END UP
SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY. WINDS ARE FORECAST OUT OF GOOD DIRECTIONS FOR
WARMING...SOUTHWEST ON THURSDAY AND WEST TO NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY...
THOUGH THE SPEEDS ARE 5 TO 10 KT AT BEST. PAST VERIFICATION OF ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURE EVENTS SHOWS THAT THE ECMWF TENDS TO DO THE
BEST...SO THIS FORECAST LEANS CLOSE TO THE ECMWF GUIDANCE...
PARTICULARLY FOR HIGHS.
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
237 PM CST TUE JAN 3 2012
03.12Z ECMWF/GFS/CANADIAN AND GFS ENSEMBLES REMAIN IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE HANDLING OF THE UPPER AIR AND SURFACE PATTERNS
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE CONUS DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THIS LEADS
TO...AT LEAST AT THE MOMENT...ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE. GENERAL
PATTERN SHOWS TROUGHING OVER THE FORECAST AREA SOUTHWESTWARD INTO
THE SOUTHWEST U.S. FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS TROUGHING IS CREATED BY THE
TROUGH APPROACHING THE AREA ON FRIDAY...A POTENT SHORTWAVE DROPPING
SOUTH THROUGH THE ROCKIES...AND THEN ON SUNDAY A SHORTWAVE DROPPING
DOWN TOWARD THE AREA. THIS LAST SHORTWAVE COMES DOWN A BUILDING
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. INTO SOUTHWEST CANADA. WITH THE UPPER
TROUGHING OVER THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
COOLER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED. 850MB TEMPS FALL TO -6 TO -10C
AT 18Z SATURDAY WITH ONLY A SLIGHT WARM UP TO -5 TO -8C AT 18Z
SUNDAY. A BLEND OF GUIDANCE SEEMS REASONABLE FOR TEMPERATURES AT
THIS TIME. DESPITE THE UPPER TROUGHING MOVING ACROSS...THERE IS VERY
LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...THEREFORE NO PRECIPITATION IS
FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND AT THIS TIME.
FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...A MORE POTENT UPPER TROUGH LOOKS TO MOVE
OUT OF THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC INTO SOUTHWEST CANADA...WHICH MAY START
DIGGING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE TUESDAY. THIS UPPER TROUGH
HELPS SHUNT THE BUILDING RIDGING OUT WEST TOWARDS THE FORECAST
AREA...BRINGING WITH IT YET ANOTHER SURGE OF PACIFIC AIR. 850MB
TEMPS CLIMB RAPIDLY TO AT LEAST 0 TO +6C BY 00Z TUESDAY...IF NOT
HIGHER. BY 12Z TUESDAY...THEY ARE SOLIDLY UP TO 6-8C. SOME COOLING
COULD OCCUR LATE TUESDAY...DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THAT UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES. IN ANY EVENT...BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK ABOVE TO
WELL ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE LACK OF SNOW COVER.
STAYED CLOSER TO THE WARM END OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES STILL ARE NIL WITH A LACK OF MOISTURE...AND FORCING IN THIS
CASE.
LOOKING AHEAD...A COLD SHOT OF AIR...SIMILAR TO THE ONE JUST
EXPERIENCED YESTERDAY...APPEARS IN THE OFFERING FOR THE MIDDLE AND
END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS IS DUE TO THE TROUGHING APPROACHING THE AREA
ON TUESDAY DIGGING DOWN TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY. RIGHT NOW ANY
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH APPEARS TO BE LIGHT...BUT
THIS IS STILL 8-10 DAYS OUT.
&&
.AVIATION...THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY
1118 AM CST TUE JAN 3 2012
POSITIVE TILT SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN MONTANA WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE SOUTHEAST AND ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TONIGHT. WHILE THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PRODUCE GOOD VERTICAL MOTION AS IT COMES
THROUGH...IT JUST WILL NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ANYTHING
OTHER THAN CLOUDS AS THE ATMOSPHERE IS VERY DRY WITH NO CHANCE FOR
ANY MOISTURE RETURN. JUST EXPECTING A HIGH VFR CEILING TO OCCUR
UNTIL THE WAVE PASSES THROUGH. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH. STILL EXPECTING
SOUTH WINDS TO BE SUSTAINED BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KNOTS WITH SOME
GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS THROUGH SUNSET. THE GRADIENT WILL START
TO RELAX THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT APPROACHES WITH A WIND SHIFT TO
THE NORTHWEST OCCURRING OVERNIGHT ONCE THE FRONT GOES THROUGH.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
237 PM CST TUE JAN 3 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1212 PM CST TUE JAN 3 2012
.UPDATE...CIRRUS BLOWING ACROSS WISCONSIN IN UPPER LEVEL
NORTHWEST FLOW. RUC PROGS SHOW APPROACHING POCKETS OF DIVERGENCE
AND HIGHER RH IN 500-300MB LAYER...SUGGESTING THE CIRRUS OVER
EASTERN MN/WESTERN WI WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OUR WAY. THUS...KEPT
THE PREVIOUS CLOUD TREND. MORNING TEMP TREND WAS TOO SLOW TO WARM
OVER THE BARE GROUND OF THE SOUTHWEST CWA...SO ADJUSTED THE TREND
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT AS SHORTWAVE ROLLS THROUGH...WITH BRIEF CLEARING BY
MORNING. MOISTURE VERY LACKING IN THE LOWER LEVELS...SO NOT
EXPECTING ANY PRECIP WITH THE WAVE. ANOTHER QUIET DAY EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY...WITH ONLY MORE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING IN
LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 AM CST TUE JAN 3 2012/
TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.
LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WITH A
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING INTO WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON.
A SHORTWAVE IS THEN EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS MONTANA AND DROP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...THAT EXTENDS INTO SOUTHEAST
WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT.
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE OVERHEAD THIS
MORNING...BEFORE PUSHING EAST WITH A SOUTH FLOW AND WARM
ADVECTION PATTERN BY NOON...AHEAD OF A TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS.
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND WEAK UPWARD MOTION. LOW LEVELS ARE DRY
SO NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.
MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH THE APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE. LIFT IS PRESENT...ESPECIALLY IN THE MID LAYERS...BUT
DRY AIR BETWEEN 5 AND 12 THSD FT SHOULD PREVENT ANY PRECIPITATION.
NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MUCH OF THE WARM AIR TO BE AROUND 6 TO
7 THSD FT...WITH A RATHER DEEP LOW LEVEL INVERSION. SOME INCREASE
IN MOISTURE AROUND 4 THSD FT...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO NOT QUITE
REACH SATURATION.
SHORT TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH.
COLD FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY...WITH SHORT TERM
MODELS BRINGING A VORTICITY MAXIMUM SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTHERN
WISCONSIN IN ITS WAKE. AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS ONLY SHOW SOME MID
LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. HIGHS SHOULD STILL REACH
THE MID 30S...ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.
WARM AIR ADVECTION THEN TAKES HOLD OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT LINGERS.
1000/500MB THICKNESSES RISE FROM AROUND 540 DM AT 00Z
THURSDAY...TO NEAR 550 DM BY 12Z FRIDAY. THE 00Z NAM RUN IS EVEN
MORE AGGRESSIVE...WITH LOWER TO MID 550S DM THICKNESSES. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S THURSDAY...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S THURSDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY PER ECMWF AND
GFS...WITH A DECENT VORTICITY MAXIMUM PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT. AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE GFS ARE FAIRLY DRY
DURING THIS PERIOD...SO THE DRY FORECAST WILL CONTINUE. COLD AIR
ADVECTION LATER FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BRING COOLER BUT
STILL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
SECONDARY VORTICITY MAXIMUM SHIFTS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA
SATURDAY...THEN SHITS EAST SATURDAY NIGHT. DRY AIRMASS PER GFS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS LEADS TO CONTINUATION OF DRY FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN MILD.
GFS/ECMWF BRING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT...THEN SOUTHEAST ON MONDAY. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE DURING THIS TIME. MILD TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE AS
WARM AIR ADVECTION RETURNS BY MONDAY.
AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. AS SURFACE HIGH EXITS SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN
BY AFTERNOON...WARM AIR ADVECTION ON SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING TROUGH WILL GENERATE LIFT BUT MAINLY MID/UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN LATE
TONIGHT...BUT ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD FALL TO THE NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA.
MARINE...
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN BY NOON. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. THE
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO REACH LAKE MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WIMBERLEY/DDV
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WOOD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
537 AM CST TUE JAN 3 2012
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
310 AM CST TUE JAN 3 2012
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PACKAGE...CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
06Z DATA ANALYSIS HAD A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED FROM THE MN
ARROWHEAD TO EASTERN IA AND EASTERN TX. CLEAR SKIES OVER WI/
EASTERN IA/NORTHERN IL EAST OF THE RIDGE AXIS WITH LOW CLOUDS/-SN
EARLY THIS MORNING LIMITED TO THE LEE SIDES OF LK SUPERIOR/MI.
PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AHEAD OF THE NEXT CO TO
MT LEE TROUGH AND LOW IN SOUTHERN SASKAT. SOUTH WINDS ALREADY
DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN MN/IA. SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING ACROSS
MN/IA...SPILLING THRU THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS...KEEPING
TEMPS ACROSS THE SNOW COVERED PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MN FROM
DIVING BELOW ZERO.
NO GLARING ERRORS NOTED WITH 03.00Z MODEL INITIALIZATIONS AND
SOLUTIONS VERY SIMILAR FOR TODAY THRU THU NIGHT. WEAKEST POINT OF
INITIALIZATION AS USUAL THE SFC-925MB DEW POINT/RH FIELDS...BUT
THESE DIFFERENCES LOOK TO HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON THE SHORT-
TERM FCST THIS CYCLE. DPROG/DT OF 500MB HGTS AT 03.00Z SHOWED MODEL
RUNS OF 01.00Z AND 02.00Z VERIFIED REASONABLY WELL ACROSS NOAM/
EASTER PAC WITH BETTER RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY ON SHORTWAVE FEATURES
TO ECMWF. MODELS CONVERGING ON A TIGHTER CONSENSUS/COMPROMISE
SOLUTION AS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SHORTWAVE DROPS QUICKLY EAST AND
SOUTHEAST TODAY/TONIGHT. TIGHTER CONSENSUS DEVELOPING FOR WED THRU
THU NIGHT AS HGTS RISE/RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST WED/THU THEN THE NEXT TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
THU NIGHT. GFS/ECMWF WITH SOMEWHAT BETTER RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY
THAN THE OTHERS TONIGHT THRU THU NIGHT. CHECK OF OBS VS. MODEL DATA
AT 06Z SHOWED MODELS WITH A DECENT HANDLE ON THE SFC RIDGE OVER THE
REGION AND THE LEE TROUGHING/SASKAT LOW. PER WV IMAGERY ALL LOOKED
GOOD WITH THE SHORTWAVE QUICKLY TRAVERSING THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND
SHORTWAVE DETAILS ELSEWHERE ACROSS NOAM/EASTERN PAC. NO CLEAR MODEL
FAVORITE AND WITH THE TREND TOWARD THE TIGHTER COMPROMISE
CONSENSUS...FAVORED THE CONSENSUS. SHORT TERM FCST CONFIDENCE
REMAINS GOOD THIS CYCLE.
FOR THE SHORT TERM...FCST CONCERNS RATHER MINOR THRU THE SHORT
TERM THIS CYCLE. SFC RIDGE AXIS MOVES QUICKLY EAST OF THE AREA TODAY
AS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SHORTWAVE MOVES TO NORTHWEST MN/EASTERN SD
BY 00Z AND THE LEE TROUGH/FRONT MOVE EAST TO ABOUT THE SAME
POSITION. GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER THE AREA BY MID-DAY...WITH BRISK
SOUTH WINDS 15-25KT EXPECTED IN THE OPEN AREAS/RIDGE TOPS.
MDT/STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION RESULTS IN ABOUT 6C OF 925MB
WARMING TODAY. WITH FLATTENING MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE AREA
TODAY...AND AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...CONSIDERABLE HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA. CLOUDS
WILL TEMPER WARM-UP TODAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER MOSTLY SNOW-
FREE GROUND. IF MORE SUNSHINE OCCURS THAN EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...
HIGH TEMPS COULD EASILY POP INTO THE LOW/MID 30S OVER THE SOUTH HALF
OF THE FCST AREA. SFC-MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA
THIS EVENING. MODEL SOUNDINGS/X-SECTIONS CONTINUE TO INDICATE COLUMN
REMAINS QUITE DRY IN THE 850-650MB LAYER AS THIS TROUGH PASSES.
HAVE DOUBTS ABOUT FLURRIES IN GRIDS THIS EVENING OVER THE NORTHEAST
END OF THE FCST AREA BUT WILL LEAVE THEM TO BLEND WITH NEIGHBORING
GRIDS. GRADIENT WINDS AHEAD OF/BEHIND THE FRONT/TROUGH WILL KEEP THE
BOUNDARY LAYER STIRRED TONIGHT AND LOWS ABOVE NORMAL. SHORT-LIVED
NORTHERLY FLOW/LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION MOVES ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT. NEXT LEE TROUGH AND LOW MOVING INTO CENTRAL CAN ALREADY
TURNS THE LOW LEVEL WINDS WESTERLY WED AND SPREAD WARM ADVECTION
ACROSS MN/IA/WI. TEMPS TO CONTINUE MODERATING WED. AS THE CAN LOW
MOVES TO NEAR LK WINNIPEG THU ANOTHER ROUND OF MDT/STRONG LOW LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION. SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT NOT
THAT STRONG ACROSS THE AREA THU WITH WINDS MOSTLY 5-10KTS. FLAT
RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST BY LATER THU...WITH
MODELS INDICATING SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE NEXT
TROUGH INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL SPILL THRU THE RIDGING AND
ACROSS THE AREA. THE LIGHT-ISH WINDS AND SOME HIGH CLOUDS THU WILL
LIMIT MIXING AND TEMPER THE WARM-UP. HIGHS THU STILL EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE MID 30S-MID 40S...SOME 10-20F ABOVE NORMAL. CAN LOW TRACKS TO
NORTH OF LK SUPERIOR THU NIGHT...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
AREA. A MODIFIED PACIFIC AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH LIMITED COLD
ADVECTION/COOL-DOWN BEHIND THE FRONT. LOWS THU NIGHT TO REMAIN WELL
ABOVE NORMAL WITH LIGHT/MDT GRADIENT WINDS FOR BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXING.
NUMERICAL TEMP GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS/LOWS TODAY THRU THU NIGHT
GENERALLY SIMILAR. FAVORED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE VALUES FOR LOWS
TONIGHT THRU THU NIGHT. HIGHS STILL LOOK BIASED TOWARD JAN
CLIMATOLOGY AND THE EXPECTATION OF A FEW INCHES OF SNOW COVER ACROSS
THE LANDSCAPE. ONLY PLACE IN THE FCST AREA THIS EXISTS IS ALONG/
NORTH OF HWY 29 ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL WI. ELSEWHERE MOSTLY AN INCH OR
LESS OF SNOW COVER. TRENDED TOWARD WARMER OF GUIDANCE HIGHS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL/SOUTH PARTS OF THE FCST AREA TODAY THRU THU AND RAISED
THESE A CATEGORY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD.
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
310 AM CST TUE JAN 3 2012
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS OF 03.00Z IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT FOR FRI
THRU MON...AS BROAD LONGWAVE DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
FRI/SAT...THEN PROGRESSES INTO THE EASTERN CONUS SUN/MON. EVEN A
GOOD CONSENSUS ON A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO DROP INTO THE REGION SUN...
BETTER THAN HAS BEEN SEEN AT THE DAY 6 TIME RANGE MUCH OF THE
AUTUMN/EARLY WINTER. LONG-TERM FCST CONFIDENCE ABOVE AVERAGE THIS
CYCLE. THE LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION FROM THU NIGHT CONTINUES ACROSS
THE AREA FRI...BUT WITH FLOW MORE WESTERLY THAN NORTHERLY AND THE
MODIFIED PACIFIC AIRMASS...APPEARS FRI TO BE AS WARM OR WARMER THAN
THU. SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SAT. WITH
A COOLER COLUMN UNDER THIS TROUGH...MODELS INDICATING SOME DEEPER
SATURATION MAY OCCUR...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE
FCST AREA. MAY YET NEED A SMALL -SN CHANCE ALONG/EAST OF THE MS
RIVER SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING BUT FOLLOWED THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND
LEFT SAT DRY FOR NOW. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO DROP ACROSS
THE REGION SUN. AIRMASS WITH THIS ONE DRIER ABOVE 850MB...WITH THIS
WAVE LOOKING TO DO LITTLE MORE THAN BRING A RE-ENFORCING SHOT OF
COOLER AIR TO THE REGION. BY MONDAY MODELS TREND PROGRESSIVE WITH
THE TROUGH AND STRONG HGT RISES/LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION...FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...TO SPREAD BACK INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...
CONTINUING THE GENERALLY MILD AND LIMITED SNOWFALL PATTERN WELL
INTO JAN.
FURTHER OUT IN TIME...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HINTING AT A STRONGER
SYSTEM TO MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME SNOW FALL. DETAILS ON THIS SKETCHY AT
BEST AND ANY CONFIDENCE QUITE LOW AT THIS TIME RANGE.
&&
.AVIATION...TODAY AND TONIGHT
537 AM CST TUE JAN 3 2012
MAIN FOCUS AT THE TAF SITES IS WITH THE WIND IN REGARD TO HOW HIGH
IT WILL GUST OUT OF THE SOUTH TODAY AND THEN WHEN A COLD FRONT
WILL COME THROUGH TONIGHT AND BRING WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. A
RIDGE AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER WITH WINDS COMING AROUND TO THE SOUTH AT RST/LSE. WINDS WILL
START OUT LIGHT BEFORE PICKING UP THOUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
03.10Z RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A MIXED LAYER UP TO
AROUND 950MB TODAY WITH MOMENTUM TRANSFER SHOWING ABOUT 24-28KT
GUSTS TO BE ABLE TO BE MIXED DOWN AT RST THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHTER AT LSE WITH GUSTS TOPPING OUT AROUND 20KT. A COLD
FRONT WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING AND GO THROUGH
RST AROUND 6Z AND LSE AROUND 8Z. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH
THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
ENTER THE REGION WITH IT.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
310 AM CST TUE JAN 3 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION...HALBACH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1130 PM CST MON JAN 2 2012
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
257 PM CST MON JAN 2 2012
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE CLOUD COVER AND TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH
WHETHER PRECIPITATION CAN OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT.
CURRENTLY AS OF 20Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...RIDGING FROM
THE SOUTHWEST U.S. NORTHWARD INTO SASKATCHEWAN...AND DEEP TROUGHING
FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S.. COLD AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DEEP TROUGH IS FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVER THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH 850MB TEMPS PER 12Z RAOBS AROUND -18C. GRB
SOUNDING REFLECTS THE COLD ADVECTION SEEN AS WELL...NOTED BY 24 HOUR
TEMPERATURE DROP OF 10-15C FROM THE SURFACE TO 400MB. TROPOPAUSE HAS
ALSO BEEN LOWERED TO 425MB. CLOUD COVER...RELATED TO MOISTURE STUCK
BELOW THE COLD FRONTAL INVERSION NEAR 800MB PER 12Z GRB/MPX
SOUNDINGS...HAS BEEN SLOWLY DISSIPATING DUE TO A COMBINATION OF
DAYTIME MIXING AND DRY AIR ADVECTING SOUTH OUT OF NORTHERN ONTARIO.
TO THE WEST...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS. FURTHER WEST...WARM ADVECTION IS TAKING PLACE ALONG THE LEE
OF THE ROCKIES...NOTED BY 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM GGW AND UNR WITH 850MB
TEMPS AROUND 0C. CIRRUS HAS BEEN PRESENT IN THESE AREAS TOO...COMING
FROM PACIFIC MOISTURE TOPPING THE UPPER RIDGING THERE.
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...UPPER RIDGE SEEN OVER MONTANA INTO
SASKATCHEWAN IS PROGGED TO PUSH EAST DURING THIS PERIOD...IN
RESPONSE TO THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MOVING
INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHOULD
CROSS THE FORECAST AREA MID-DAY TUESDAY. WITH THE UPPER RIDGING
BUILDING IN PROVIDING PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE...NO PRECIPITATION IS
ANTICIPATED. EVEN AFTER THE UPPER RIDGE PASSES LATE TUESDAY AND
500MB HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL...THE PRESENCE OF SO MUCH DRY AIR
BROUGHT IN BY THE CURRENT UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP THINGS DRY AND ANY
WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS TO MID OR HIGH LEVEL. CONCERN TONIGHT IS HOW
LOW TEMPERATURES MAY END UP WITH CLEAR SKIES LIKELY AND THE SURFACE
RIDGE MOVING IN OVERNIGHT. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF TYPICAL COLD
SITES NORTH OF I-94...WHERE MORE THAN A TRACE OF SNOW EXISTS ON THE
GROUND...DROP TO 5 TO 10 BELOW ZERO. MOST OF THE REST OF THE AREA
SHOULD SEE LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO...WITH OTHER TYPICAL
COLD SPOTS IN WISCONSIN DROPPING TO 0 TO 5 BELOW. INCREASING SOUTH
WINDS WILL BRING IN WARMER AIR FOR TUESDAY...CAUSING 850MB TEMPS TO
CLIMB TO -2 TO -6C BY 18Z. SOME OF THIS WARM AIR MAY BE CAPPED
OFF...HELPED TOO BY THE INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS LATER IN THE
DAY PREVENTING MIXING. THEREFORE...HIGHS ARE ONLY FORECAST IN THE
20S. A FEW SITES IN NORTHEAST IOWA COULD TOP 30...THOUGH...CLOSER TO
THE WARMEST AIR MOVING IN AND BEING SNOW-FREE.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER WESTERN
MINNESOTA IS WELL AGREED UPON TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH 500MB HEIGHTS SLOWLY BUILDING IN ITS WAKE
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE RISING HEIGHTS ARE IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...
PUSHING RIDGING THAT DEVELOPED AHEAD OF IT EASTWARD. REGARDING
TUESDAY NIGHTS SHORTWAVE TROUGH...NOT IMPRESSED FOR PRECIPITATION.
ALTHOUGH DPVA FORCING IS PRETTY DECENT GIVEN THE TRACK...ISENTROPIC
LIFT IS VERY WEAK AT BEST AND MOSTLY CONFINED NORTH AND EAST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. IN ADDITION...MOISTURE IS SERIOUSLY LACKING BETWEEN
850-650MB WHICH SHOULD BE ABLE TO ABSORB MOST OF THE SNOW BEING
PRODUCED ALOFT. WITH THE 02.12Z NAM/GFS/ECMWF ALL DRY...HAVE PULLED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR TUESDAY EVENING...BUT DID LEAVE A MENTION
OF FLURRIES IN CASE ANYTHING CAN REACH THE GROUND. AFTER THIS...ONLY
ISSUES BECOME CLOUDS/TEMPERATURES WITH NO SYSTEMS EXPECTED TO COME
THROUGH TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION. LOOKS LIKE THERE MAYBE SOME LOW
STRATUS IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY OVER
WISCONSIN...WHICH SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. OTHER BATCHES
OF MID/HIGH CLOUD ARE POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...MOSTLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...INDUCED
BY THE WARM ADVECTION PATTERN SET UP BY THE RISING 500MB HEIGHTS.
THEREFORE...WHEN IT COMES TO TEMPERATURES...BEST MIXING IS LIKELY TO
OCCUR WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. BIGGEST PROBLEM WHEN IT COMES
TO TEMPERATURES IS SEEING THE WARM ADVECTION AND HOW MUCH OF IT CAN
MIX DOWN. 850MB TEMPS CLIMB TO -2 TO +2C BY 00Z THURSDAY AND 7-11C
BY 00Z FRIDAY. WINDS ARE NOT FORECAST TO BE THAT STRONG...5 TO MAYBE
15 KT AT BEST WHICH HURTS MIXING...THOUGH THEY ARE OUT OF THE WEST
TO SOUTHWEST WHICH IS A GOOD DIRECTION. CERTAINLY SNOW FREE AREAS
COULD GET QUITE WARM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. FOR NOW HAVE FOLLOWED A
BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY TIME PERIOD...BUT RAISED THEM UP A FEW DEGREES FOR HIGHS
OVER SNOW-FREE AREAS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. NOTE...
THURSDAYS RECORD HIGH IS 47 AT LA CROSSE AND 45 AT ROCHESTER. THERE
IS POTENTIAL TO GET CLOSE TO THIS...ESPECIALLY IF WE ARE SUNNY ALL
DAY.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
257 PM CST MON JAN 2 2012
02.12Z ECMWF/GFS/CANADIAN AND GFS ENSEMBLES ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT AGAIN TODAY ON THE UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE PATTERNS
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...AND REPRESENT SOLUTIONS SIMILAR TO THOSE
SEEN YESTERDAY. GENERAL THEME IS FOR THE WESTERN RIDGING SEEN
RECENTLY TO BRIEFLY BREAK DOWN AS A SHORTWAVE COMING OFF THE PACIFIC
DIGS DOWN TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION ON SATURDAY. MEANWHILE...
DOWNSTREAM...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WAS IN BRITISH COLUMBIA ON
THURSDAY IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...PLACING THE
AREA IN TROUGHING FOR THE WEEKEND. NEW RIDGING IS THEN FORECAST TO
BUILD OVER THE WESTERN U.S. INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WHILE SHORTWAVES STREAM SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES ON THE EDGE OF THIS RIDGING.
OVERALL UPPER PATTERN IS UNFAVORABLE FOR MUCH IF ANY PRECIPITATION
AS MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED. ANY MOISTURE IS TRAPPED BY THAT THE
SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...WHICH LOOKS TO
CROSS THE GULF COAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY IN ADDITION...THERE
APPEARS TO BE A LACK OF SYSTEMS WITH MUCH FORCING. THEREFORE...A
DRY FORECAST CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN THE BIGGEST PROBLEM...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE
UN-CLIMATOLOGICAL LACK OF SNOW ON THE GROUND OVER A LOT OF THE UPPER
MIDWEST. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY
MORNING. ALTHOUGH 850MB TEMPS FALL THROUGH THE DAY...FROM 6-10C AT
12Z FRIDAY TO -2 TO +2C BY 00Z SATURDAY...THIS COOLING COMBINED WITH
MORE WIND COULD RESULT IN BETTER MIXING THAN THURSDAY. PLUS...WE
WILL START OFF WARMER ON FRIDAY. THEREFORE...FRIDAY SHOULD END UP
JUST AS WARM AS THURSDAY IF NOT WARMER. COOL DOWN THEN CONTINUES
INTO THE WEEKEND AS TROUGHING MOVES OVERHEAD...NOTED BY 850MB TEMPS
FALLING TO -5 TO -10C BY 00Z SUNDAY AND -7 TO -10C BY 00Z MONDAY.
THE COOL DOWN IS BRIEF...AS THE NEXT WARM UP ENSUES FOR MONDAY WITH
THE HEIGHT RISES ALOFT. FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...FOLLOWED A
BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS AND LOWS.
&&
.AVIATION...THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY
1130 PM CST MON JAN 2 2012
BAND OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WERE PUSHING SOUTHWARD ACROSS MINNESOTA
LATE THIS EVENING ON BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE. EXPECT RIDGE
AXIS TO PASS ACROSS THE TAF SITES BETWEEN 09Z-12Z AND ALLOW THESE
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO PUSH INTO THE AREA. CEILINGS WILL REMAIN AOA
12K FEET. AS SURFACE RIDGE PUSHES EAST OF THE TAF SITES
TUESDAY...PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN WITH SOUTH WINDS PICKING
UP BY LATE MORNING. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME GUSTS TO 20-23 KNOTS AT
KRST...WITH AROUND 12 TO 15 KNOTS AT KLSE. WINDS WILL DIMINISHING
SOMEWHAT AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY...BUT STILL REMAIN ABOVE 12 KNOTS AT
KRST WITH JUST SOME SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
257 PM CST MON JAN 2 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...RABERDING
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
1048 PM CST MON JAN 2 2012
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW CYCLONIC FLOW
CONTINUING UNABATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE IS GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST OVER THE GREAT PLAINS. PLENTY
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND MOISTURE
FLUXES OFF LAKE SUPERIOR ARE CONTRIBUTING TO SCATTERED FLURRIES AND
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BELT. SPEAKING
OF WHICH...1-3SM VISIBILITIES (WITH POCKETS OF LOWER VSBYS) IN SNOW
SHOWERS HAVE BEEN PREVAILING WITHIN THE SNOW BELT FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY. DRY AIR AS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH DEWPOINTS SUB-ZERO
HAVE BEEN ERODING THE STREAMERS OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND ARE
STARTING TO APPROACH THE U.P. SHORELINE. WINDS HAVE BEEN THE
BREEZIEST OVER DOOR COUNTY WHERE HAVE SEEN A FEW GUSTS AROUND 39 KTS
AT SISTER BAY AND 35 KTS BY ALGOMA. WINTER WEATHER AND WIND
HEADLINES ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM.
TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT PLAINS WILL SHIFT
EAST TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY MORNING. AS THE RIDGE AXIS
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...STRONG MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND LOW LEVEL
DRY AIR BROUGHT IN BY NORTH WINDS WILL SHUT DOWN THE LAKE EFFECT
PROCESSES OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...WHICH WILL CUT OFF THE
MOISTURE TRANSPORT FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST. AS A RESULT...WILL SEE
CLEARING SKIES THIS EVENING EVEN OVER THE SNOW BELT WHERE LAKE
EFFECT STREAMERS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY CONFINED TO THE U.P.
BORDER. WILL LEAVE A SCATTERED MENTION OF SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH
MID-EVENING. WILL WAIT UNTIL THE LAST MINUTE TO DECIDE PULL THE
WINTER STORM WARNING...AS IT DEPENDS ON VISIBILITIES AND THE DEGREE
OF EROSION OF THE LAKE EFFECT BANDS FROM THE DRY AIR. WIND
HEADLINES ARE ALSO PROBLEMATIC AS ONLY THE TIP OF THE DOOR HAS BEEN
APPROACHING WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. WINDS SHOULD ONLY GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE THIS EVENING...SO ALSO THINK MAY BE ABLE TO PULL THE
ADVISORY HEADLINE AT PRESS ISSUANCE. ANOTHER LAST MINUTE DECISION
ON THAT ONE. WINDS WILL BE DECOUPLING OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
WISCONSIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH THE FRESH SNOW PACK...TEMPS SHOULD
PLUMMET LATE TO SOME OF THE COLDEST READINGS OF THE SEASON. BUT
BECAUSE WINDS WILL BE DECOUPLING...WIND CHILL READINGS WILL ONLY
FALL TO 20 BELOW...WHICH FALLS JUST SHORT OF HEADLINES.
TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY MIDDAY
IN RESPONSE TO SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRACKING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WILL SEE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVE
OVERHEAD DOWNSTREAM OF THE SHORTWAVE...BUT LOW LEVELS ARE WAY TO DRY
FOR PRECIP. AFTER A COLD START TO THE DAY...HIGH TEMPS WILL REBOUND
TO THE MID TEENS TO LOW 20S.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY. NEXT SYSTEM TO
AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA TOWARD TUESDAY NIGHT MAKING LANDFALL ON
THE NORTHWEST US COAST TODAY. TREND OF THE LAST FEW MODEL RUNS
WITH THIS SYSTEM HAVE BEEN DRY DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE WHILE
WORKING OVER THE ROCKIES...AND MOVING AT GOOD CLIP IN THE FAST
NORTHWEST FLOW. THIS FAIRLY DEEP SHARP WAVE TROUGH WITH SURFACE
TROUGH REFLECTION HAS A NICE PERIOD OF WAA TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT
AVAILABLE LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL MAINLY SERVE TO SATURATE THE AIR
MASS...AND THE BEST SNOW GROWTH REGION PASSES QUICKLY OVER. DUE TO
CONSISTENT MODEL TO MODEL GUIDANCE OF NO MEASUREABLE QPF...WILL
LOWER POPS BUT KEEP A NON MEASURABLE PCPN MENTION GOING.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK...THE WESTERN STATES UPPER
RIDGE FLATTENS WHILE A SYSTEM PASSES OVER SOUTHERN CANADA. A
PERIOD OF WAA WILL RAISE TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS THIS WEEK UNTIL
A COLD FRONT DROPS OVER LATE IN THE WEEK FOR A RETURN TO MORE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. NORTHWEST FLOW PROVIDES A MINOR LES SNOW
CHANCE FOR THE FAR NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY.
ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH WITH FRONTAL SYSTEM
BRUSHES THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION TOWARD MONDAY...OTHERWISE
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE NO SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS TO AFFECT
THE AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS NOW IN PLACE WITH RIDGE AXIS CROSSING
THE RGN. THEY SHOULD CONT INTO TOMORROW. EXPECT LLWS TO DEVELOP
TOMORROW AFTN AS WAA OCCURS OVER THE COLD DOME NR THE SFC.
SKOWRONSKI
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
943 PM MST WED JAN 4 2012
.DISCUSSION...
232 PM MST WED JAN 4 2012
EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RUC H5 ANALYSIS SHOW PATTERN ACROSS
HIGH PLAINS DOMINATED BY LARGE SCALE RIDGE. WITH DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...IMMEDIATE FOCUS REMAINS ON
NEAR RECORD TEMPS ON THURSDAY.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...H5 RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT SOUTH BY THURSDAY
MORNING...WITH WESTERLY FLOW AND THERMAL TROUGH SUPPORTING WARMER
AIR MASS OVER CWA. THURSDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK TO BE VERY
WARM...WITH NEAR RECORD HIGHS OVER PARTS OF THE CWA. SNOW PACK
CONTINUED TO DETERIORATE TODAY IN THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PART OF
CWA...AND IM NOT CONFIDENT IT WILL HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT
THURSDAY. FOR NOW BEST MIXING STILL APPEARS TO BE OVER NORTHERN
AND WESTERN PARTS OF CWA...WHERE TEMPS AROUND 70 ARE POSSIBLE.
FURTHER SOUTH...I HAVE TRENDED TEMPS UP SLIGHTLY...THOUGH STILL IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S TO ACCOUNT FOR LESSENING IMPACT OF SNOW COVER
IN THE SOUTH. WHILE RH VALUES THURSDAY LOOK TO APPROACH CRITICAL
LEVELS...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT AND BELOW RED FLAG
CRITERIA.
DRY COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH OVER CWA BY FRIDAY MORNING WITH TEMPS
DROPPING BACK CLOSER TO SEASONAL LEVELS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT...THOUGH THEY STILL APPEAR TO BE WARMER THAN NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S.
SATURDAY-TUESDAY...MOST GUIDANCE CURRENTLY SHOWING CUTOFF LOW
DEVELOPING OVER SW CONUS...WITH SPLIT FLOW ACROSS THE
PLAINS...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE
EXTENDED. 06Z/12Z GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE OUTLIER SHOWING THIS
TROUGH PASSING THROUGH THE PLAINS AS OPEN WAVE. WITH THE GEFS
SHOWING SUPPORT FOR THE THE CLOSED SW LOW SOLUTION OF THE
ECMWF/GEM...I DECIDED TO DISCOUNT THE WETTER GFS SOLUTION. BIGGER
QUESTION IN THE EXTENDED WITH BE TO WHAT EXTENT TEMPS WARM UP
MONDAY/TUESDAY. TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S SEEMS REASONABLE FOR
NOW...WITH ECMWF POSSIBLE SUPPORTING TEMPS EVEN A LITTLE WARMER
THESE DAYS.
DR
&&
.AVIATION...
943 PM MST WED JAN 4 2012
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WITH ONLY PASSING HIGH CLOUDS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST
FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD AND REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
ENTER THE AREA NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST
AROUND THE 06Z FRIDAY TIME FRAME.
050
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
414 AM EST THU JAN 5 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW NW FLOW ALF OVER
THE GRT LKS BTWN RDG OVER THE ROCKIES AND TROFFING IN THE E. MASS OF
LO CLD ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWV DIGGING SEWD THRU LWR MI LINGERS OVER
THE E HALF OF THE CWA TOWARD LLVL THERMAL TROF TO THE E...BUT
MARGINAL CHILL OF AIRMASS PER 00Z APX RAOB SHOWING INVRN BASE TEMP
OF -8C JUST BLO H85 IS TOO WARM TO SUPPORT LES. MORE SCT CLDS ARE
EVIDENT OVER THE WRN CWA. TO THE NW...HI PRES IS BLDG THRU NW
ONTARIO TOWARD THE CWA BEHIND COLD FNT MOVING SEWD ACRS ONTARIO AND
UNDER 12Z-24Z H3 RISES UP TO 100M OBSVD OVER SCNTRL CAN IN ADVANCE
OF ROCKIES RDG. BUT THERE IS PLENTY OF MID/HI CLD STRETCHING FM
SCNTRL CAN INTO NRN MN ASSOCIATED WITH WAD OVER A SHARP H85 WARM FNT
IN SCNTRL CAN THAT IS CONTRIBUTING TO THE HGT RISES. VERY WARM AIR
IS EVIDENT OVER THE HI PLAINS...WITH 00Z H85 TEMP AS HI AS 12C AT
GLASGOW MT. WELL UPSTREAM...A STRONGER SHRTWV IS MOVING ONSHORE OVER
THE PAC NW.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
EVEN THOUGH THE PASSAGE OF A SERIES OF SHRTWVS WL MAINTAIN A NW FLOW
ALF THRU THIS WEEKEND...A FAIRLY BENIGN WX PATTERN FOR JAN WL
PREVAIL WITH RELATIVELY MILD MARITIME POLAR PACIFIC AIRMASSES
DOMINATING.
TDAY...THE SFC HI BLDG THRU ONTARIO IS FCST TO SLIDE STEADILY TO THE
SE AND INTO FAR SW QUEBEC BY LATE AFTN. AS SHRTWV NOW MOVING ONSHORE
IN THE PAC NW FLATTENS THE ROCKIES RDG AND MOVES TO NEAR LK WINNIPEG
BY 00Z FRI...A SFC LO ORGANIZING OVER NRN ALBERTA THIS MRNG WILL
FOLLOW TO THAT AREA LATE IN THE DAY. ALTHOUGH THE LLVL NNE FLOW ON
THE SW FLANK OF THE HI PASSING TO THE NE WL MAINTAIN LO CLD AND
POSSIBLY SOME FLURRIES ESPECIALLY OVER THE NE HALF OF THE FA...
STEADILY VEERING FLOW TO THE S LATER IN THE DAY AHEAD OF INCOMING
WARM FNT ATTENDANT TO THE LK WINNIPEG LO SHOULD CAUSE THIS CLD TO
RETREAT. HOWEVER...THE GFS FCST H95-9 RH HINTS THIS CLD MAY BE MORE
RESILIENT. SFC OBS FM NW ONTARIO/ADJOINING MANITOBA SUPPORT THIS
MORE PESSIMISTIC FCST. SINCE THE DEEPER MSTR/MOST VIGOROUS DEEP LYR
QVECTOR CNVGC ASSOCIATED WITH THE ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS PROGGED TO
STAY TO THE NE...THE SYNOPTIC PCPN SHOULD HOLD MAINLY OVER THE NE
HALF OF LK SUP. EXPECT THE WARMEST DAYTIME TEMPS TO BE OVER THE FAR
W...WHERE MODEL FCST H100-85 THKNS IS FCST TO REACH NEAR 1320M AT
IWD WITH DOWNSLOPING SSW WIND. UPSTREAM HI TEMPS YDAY IN THE NRN
PLAINS FOR SIMILAR THKNS WERE ARND 40. GOING FCST HI TEMPS APPEAR ON
TRACK AND NEED LTL ADJUSTMENT.
TNGT...SHRTWV/SFC LO NEAR LK WINNIPEG IS PROGGED TO MOVE EWD AND TO
OVER ONTARIO JUST N OF LK SUP BY 12Z FRI. AS THE WARM FNT ADVANCES
WITH THE RETREAT OF COLD AIR TO THE E...EXPECT ANY LINGERING LO CHC
POPS OVER THE NE CWA IN THE EVNG TO PUSH INTO SE ONTARIO AND GIVE
WAY TO A PERIOD OF CLR-PCLDY SKIES WITH THE ARRIVAL OF WARMER/DRIER
AIR. COMBINATION OF STEADY WLY FLOW WITH H925 WINDS AS HI AS
30-40KTS UNDER SHARP PRES GRADIENT TO THE S OF LO CENTER AND INFLUX
OF MILD PACIFIC AIR WITH H100-85 THKNS HOLDING FM 1300 TO 1320M THRU
THE NGT INDICATES MIN TEMPS WL BE WELL ABV NORMAL. TENDED TOWARD THE
HIER END OF GUIDANCE FOR THIS FCST.
FRI...SHRTWV TRACKING ACRS ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC IS FCST TO DEEPEN UPR
TROF OVER THE GRT LKS. WITH SHARPENING CYC FLOW OF COLDER AND
MOISTER AIR UNDER THE FALLING HGTS...EXPECT QUITE A BIT OF LO CLD TO
DVLP...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS DOWNWIND OF THE LK IN SLOWLY VEERING FLOW
TO NW. ALTHOUGH THE AIRMASS IS INITIALLY TOO WARM FOR LES WITH H85
TEMPS AT 12Z FRI NO LOWER THAN -3/-4C...THESE TEMPS ARE FCST TO SINK
AS LO AS -9C OR SO BY LATE IN THE DAY OVER THE KEWEENAW. MODEL FCST
SDNGS INDICATE DEEPER MSTR WL ALSO REACH THE DGZ IN THE AFTN AT
LEAST OVER THE W...SO WENT WITH CHC POPS FOR LES THEN. BUT LACK OF
FCST OMEGA WITHIN THE DGZ SUGS ANY SN WL BE ON THE LGT SIDE.
CONSIDERED ADDING FZDZ OVER THE KEWEENAW IN THE MRNG IN AREAS WHERE
TEMPS ARE AOB 32...BUT STRONG WINDS THAT WL ENHANCE MIXING/MORE
INVERTED V SDNGS AS WELL AS INITIALLY HIER SFC DEWPT DEPRESSIONS PER
MOS GUIDANCE SUG THE BEST STRATEGY IS TO KEEP THIS OUT OF FCST ATTM.
THE HIEST MAX TEMPS WL OCCUR OVER THE SCNTRL WHERE STRONG WNW FLOW
DOWNSLOPES AND COLDER AIR IS LATER TO ARRIVE. TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO
FALL IN THE AFTN AS THE COLDER AIR MAKES MORE PROGRESS INTO THE CWA.
FRI NGT...WITH LINGERNING LLVL CYC NW FLOW AND H85 THERMAL TROF/
TEMPS SINKING TO ARND -12C...EXPECT LES CHANCES/PLENTY OF LO CLD TO
PERSIST. BUMPED GOING POPS UP TO HI CHC TO ACCOUNT FOR
CLIMATOLICALLY FAVORABLE PATTERN WITH MARGINAL THERMAL INSTABILITY
(LK WATER TEMPS ARND 3C). GIVEN THE CLD COVER AND STEADY NW FLOW
THRU THE NGT...EXPECT TEMPS TO BE WELL ABV NORMAL AND ON THE HI SIDE
OF GUIDANCE.
SAT/SAT NGT...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES...MODEL GUIDANCE
HINTS AT THE ARRIVAL OF ANOTHER SHRTWV DURING THIS TIME...WITH
SHARPENING OF LK ENHANCED TROFFING OVER THE NRN TIER. SO MAINTAINED
HI CHC POPS ON SAT WITH SOMEWHAT LOWER VALUES ON SAT NGT GIVEN TREND
TOWARD HGT RISES/WEAKENING TROF/DRYING ALF LATER SAT INTO SUN. TEMPS
WL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.
EXTENDED PERIOD...GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR WARMER
AIRMASS TO SLOWLY SEEP INTO THE UPR LKS BY TUE UNDER BLDG RDG...SO
TENDED TO RAISE ALLBLEND TEMPS A DEGREE OR 2 TO ACCOUNT FOR
CONFIDENCE IN THE ARRIVAL OF THIS WARMER PACIFIC AIR. RETURN TO
COLDER AIR AND SN STILL POSSIBLE FOR NEXT WED WITH 00Z ECMWF/GFS
SHOWING A DEEPENING TROF.
&&
.AVIATION /FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THRU THE END OF THE FCST PERIOD AT
KIWD. WILL GET A BIT GUSTY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
PERSISTENT W TO NW UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN MVFR CIGS MOVING
BACK INTO KCMX OVERNIGHT. AS WINDS BECOME SSE THU MORNING...EXPECT
LOW CLOUDS TO EXIT WITH RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS.
AT KSAW...WHEN WINDS BECOME CALM OVERNIGHT...THERE WILL BE SOME
GROUND FOG AS EVIDENCED EARLIER AT KSAW AND ALSO AT THE OFFICE. WHEN
THE WINDS KICK UP...THE GROUND FOG MIXES OUT. AS WINDS DIE DOWN LATE
TONIGHT...FOG WILL DEVELOP AND VLIFR CONDITIONS WILL SET IN. AS
WINDS BECOME SE IN THE MID MORNING...THE FOG WILL MIX OUT AND VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE /FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE FROM EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR TO
SOUTHWESTERN QUEBEC TODAY...AS LOW PRESSURE NEARS FROM CENTRAL
SASKATCHEWAN. THIS WILL RESULT IN WINDS NEARING GALES...WITH MAINLY
GALE FORCE GUSTS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY NEAR THE SOUTHERN
SHORELINES OF LS. EXPECT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO DEEPEN TO
NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR FRIDAY MORNING...BEFORE FILLING SLIGHTLY OVER
SOUTHWESTERN QUEBEC FRIDAY NIGHT. A WEAK LOW WILL CROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT...AHEAD OF RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FOR
SUNDAY. PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL DIMINISH FROM
MONDAY MORNING TO DAYBREAK TUESDAY...AS A LOW ORGANIZES OVER CENTRAL
CANADA.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KC
DISCUSSION...KC
AVIATION...07
MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
1245 AM EST THU JAN 5 2012
.SYNOPSIS.../ISSUED AT 425 PM/
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING...MAINTAINING OVERALL DRY WEATHER. A DEEP LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES...
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. BLUSTERY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PROPEL
TEMPERATURES TO 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY. THE TRAILING
COLD FRONT WILL RETURN TEMPERATURES TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS THIS
WEEKEND...WITH SOME MINOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW.
HALBLAUB
&&
.SHORT TERM.../ISSUED AT 1110 PM/...TONIGHT
...ANOTHER NGT OF EXTENSIVE CLDS AND MUCH ABOVE NORMAL LOW TEMPS...
SEQUENCE OF RUC ANALYSES SHOW WEAK/SUBTLE PV ANOMALY ON THE
TROPOPAUSE AROUND 355 MB SLIDING SE THRU THE FCST AREA...IN THE EXIT
REGION OF A 120 KT JET STREAK. HGTS ARE BUILDING IN NW FLOW.
MID-HIGH CLDS IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE ARE DEPARTING TO THE S...
REVEALING WIDESPREAD MVFR STRATUS OVER NRN MI. WE`LL CONTINUE WITH
PERSISTENCE AND MAINTAIN OVC SKIES THE REST OF THE NGT. THE
EXCEPTION IS BENZIE/MANISTEE COUNTIES. WE`VE SEEN CLEARING OVER
LAKE MI HEAD INLAND...WHERE LAKE INSTABILITY IS INSUFFICIENT FOR
LAKE CLDS.
EXTENSIVE LOW CLDS ARE NOT PERMITTING TEMPS TO FALL MUCH. SO LOW
TEMPS WERE RAISED ABOUT 3F...DERIVED FROM MINIMUM 3-HOURLY TEMPS
FROM 12Z NAM MOS. BENZIE/MANISTEE WERE LOWERED WHERE PERIODS OF
CLR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR SOME RADIATING.
SATL SHOWS NEXT BATCH OF MID-HIGH CLDS SPILLING OVER UPSTREAM
RIDGE WITH ITS LEADING EDGE NOW OVER WI. SOME OF THIS WILL AFFECT
BENZIE/MANISTEE OVERNGT.
OTHER THAN SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUDS...NO OTHER SUBSTANTIAL
CHANGES TO THE FCST.
LOW PRES WAS MOVING THRU NRN QUEBEC. ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL
SLIP INTO THE STRAITS AND LAKE HURON AROUND DAWN AS A BACKDOOR
FRONT. CONVERGENCE WILL LIKELY ACT TO MAINTAIN LOW CLOUDS.
CLIMATE: TODAY WAS THE 3RD DAY IN A ROW OF HIGH TEMPS AT OR BELOW
FRZG. THIS IS ONLY THE 2ND TIME THIS HAS OCCURRED SINCE DEC 11TH.
THE LONGEST STRETCH SO FAR THESE SEASON WAS DEC 5TH-10TH. THIS
CURRENT STRETCH ENDS TODAY AS ANOTHER SURGE OF ABOVE-MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS /TYPICAL OF THIS WINTER/ BEGINS TOMORROW. WE JUST
CANNOT SUSTAIN ANY PROLONGED STRETCHES OF SUB-FRZG COLD.
HALBLAUB
&&
.LONG TERM.../ISSUED AT 425 PM/...THURSDAY AND BEYOND
THURSDAY...A MILDER PUSH OF AIR WILL MOVE UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST DUE
TO STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION. IN ADDITION...A WEAK ALBERTA CLIPPER
WILL MOVE BY TO OUR NORTH. MODEL SOUNDINGS/CROSS SECTIONS SHOW LOTS
OF DRY MID LEVEL AIR...SO IT IS LIKELY GOING TO BE TOUGH TO GENERATE
ANY PRECIPITATION. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE WITH THE LOW CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST FOR LIGHT SNOW. AS FAR AS CLOUD COVER
GOES...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED TO PREVAIL...EXPECT BECOMING
PARTLY CLOUDY SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON (WHEN 925 MB RH DROPS OFF
TO AROUND 40 PERCENT). MILDER WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S
NORTHEAST TO AROUND 40 SOUTHWEST.
SULLIVAN
EXTENDED FORECAST SYNOPTIC PATTERN...A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
TO SWING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WITHIN OVERALL AVERAGED NW FLOW
REGIME ALOFT. NO GULF CONNECTION WITH ANY OF THE SYSTEMS...AND NO
STRONG LOW PRESSURE THROUGH TUESDAY TO BRING ANYTHING CONSIDERED
HAZARDOUS. A MILD FRIDAY WILL GET REPLACED BY A BRIEF SHOT OF COLDER
AIR OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT HIGHS STILL AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE JANUARY
NORMALS. TEMPERATURES RISE AGAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BEFORE A
POSSIBLE ABRUPT SHIFT BACK TOP WINTER. MORE ON THAT BELOW.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE NORTH
WOODS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE GFS PLAYING CATCH UP TO THE ECMWF IDEA
OF HOLDING THE SYSTEM COLD FRONT BACK TO THE NW UNTIL FRIDAY. ECMWF
STILL A BIT SLOWER AND MAKING IT A MILDER DAY FRIDAY. THAT SAID...A
CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW MAY HANG ON IN THE EVENING WITHIN FGEN REGION
ON WARM FRONT. NO REAL CHANGE HERE. MOISTURE DOES INCREASE AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...BUT FOR THE MOST PART ITS ABOVE 650MB...SO
NO CHANCE OF PRECIP HITTING GROUND THERE. THE COLDER AIR DOES FILL
IN LATER IN THE DAY...WITH THE FIRST CHANCE FOR LIGHT LAKE EFFECT
SNOWS DEVELOPING AROUND WHITEFISH BAY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS CHANCE
CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND MORE SO INTO THE WEEKEND AS A
SECONDARY SHOT OF COLDER AIR ARRIVES. THIS LOOS TO MORE DEFINITELY
KICK THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UP PAST THE -10C ISOTHERM FOR ICE
INTRODUCTION. COULD MAYBE SEE AN INCH IN SOME SPOTS...MAINLY
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT CERTAINLY NO BARN BURNER OF A SNOW
SCENARIO. HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES SUNDAY NIGHT...PUTTING AN END TO ANY
SNOWS BY MONDAY MORNING. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE 40S IN NRN
LOWER AND UPPER 30S...FALLING BACK INTO THE 30S SATURDAY WITH UPPER
20S/AROUND 30F SUNDAY.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...INCREASING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS AND LOW LEVEL
WARMING ENSUES WITH NO LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL. MOISTURE THAT STREAMS
IN WILL ALL BE MID AND UPPER LEVEL WITH NO CHANCE OF SYNOPTIC
PRECIPITATION EITHER. HIGHS WILL BE MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH
READINGS IN THE 30S.
SNEAK PEEK AT WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK...THERE IS A
DECENT CONSENSUS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AHEAD OF
NRN STREAM UPPER TROUGH THAT MAY PHASE IN SOME DEGREE WITH A SRN
STREAM SYSTEM. BITTERLY COLD AIR GRADUALLY SETTLES IN BY FRIDAY WITH
A PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME.
AMOUNTS WOULD BE RIDICULOUS TO ASSESS AT THIS POINT...BUT A REAL
TASTE OF A HARSHER WINTER COULD BE ON TAP.
SMD
&&
.MARINE.../ISSUED AT 1110 PM/
WINDS ARE GUSTING TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ACROSS WHITEFISH BAY...AND
PARTS OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF NE LOWER MI. IN FACT...WIND DIR HAS
BECOME FAVORABLE FOR COASTAL CONVERGENCE AND PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT HAD
A PEAK G39 KTS LAST HR. THESE GUSTS WILL FALL THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH
A LESSER PRESSURE GRADIENT. NO ISSUES FORESEEN UNTIL THURSDAY-FRIDAY
WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT...THEN COLD FRONT FOR
A HANDFUL OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS AND POSSIBLE WAVES.
SMD/JH
&&
.AVIATION.../ISSUED AT 1245 AM/...VALID FOR 06Z TAFS
REST OF TNGT: UNRESTRICTED VSBYS AND 2500-3000 FT MVFR CIGS ALL
TERMINALS EXCEPT MBL. THE EDGE OF OVC IS NEAR TVC. INCLUDED TEMPO
FOR A PERIOD OF VFR SCT 2500. WINDS GENERALLY W-NW AROUND 5 KTS
TURNS CALM OR LGT AND VARIABLE.
THU: UNRESTRICTED VSBYS WITH MVFR CIGS LIFTING TO 2500-3000 AND
SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOW-END VFR 3500 FT CIGS. LOW CLOUDS COULD END
ALTOGETHER...REVEALING MID-HIGH LEVEL CIGS. LGT AND VARIABLE BECOME
S 5-10 KTS AFTER 17Z.
THU NGT THRU 06Z: WAA STRENGTHENS LOW-LEVEL INVERSION. THE 00Z/5
NAM INDICATES LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING BELOW INVERSION...WITH POSSIBLE
DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR STRATUS. HOWEVER...THIS IS LOW CONFIDENCE AND
WE`VE SEEN SIMILAR SITUATIONS LAST MONTH IN WHICH SKY WAS VFR WITH
PATCHY CIRRUS/ALTOCU. LLWS WILL DEVELOP AT THE BASE OF THE
INVERSION.
CONFIDENCE HIGH ON WIND.
CONFIDENCE HIGH ON VSBYS.
CONFIDENCE AVERAGE ON CIGS.
CONFIDENCE BELOW AVERAGE ON TIMING/OCCURRENCE OF VFR PERIODS.
CONFIDENCE HIGH ON LLWS.
HALBLAUB
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LHZ347-348.
LM...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LSZ321.
&&
$$
WFO APX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 06Z TAFS
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1112 PM EST WED JAN 4 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A WRN RIDGE/ERN TROF
PATTERN OVER THE CONUS. IN THE NW FLOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES...ONE
SHORTWAVE HAS DROPPED SE OF THE AREA WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT NOW
INTO LWR MI. BEHIND THE FRONT...LOWER CLOUDS DEVELOPED INTO THE W
AND PORTIONS OF THE N AND E TODAY...BUT APPARENTLY NO PCPN HAS
OCCURRED. RECENTLY...THE LOWER CLOUDS APPEAR TO BE SCATTERING OUT OF
THE W. NEXT SHORTWAVE OF INTEREST IS APPROACHING BRITISH COLUMBIA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND THU/...
A QUIET NIGHT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. SMALL BUBBLE OF HIGH PRES WILL
SETTLE SE TO A POSITION JUST N OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY SUNRISE THU.
850MB TEMPS HIGHER THAN -10C WILL BE TOO WARM TO SUPPPORT LES.
HOWEVER...THE REGIONAL GEM/ECMWF INDICATE 850MB TEMPS SLIPPING
TOWARD -12C OVER FAR ERN LAKE SUPERIOR OVERNIGHT. IF SO...THERE
COULD BE SOME FLURRIES LATE OVER THE ERN FCST AREA AS LOW-LEVEL
WINDS VEER MORE NORTHERLY. TO THE W...WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO
CALM...AND IT APPEARS THERE MAY NOT BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUD
COVER FOR A PORTION OF THE NIGHT. HAVE THUS FAVORED THE LOWER SIDE
OF GUIDANCE (TEMPS FALLING TOWARD 10F) AS THERE SHOULD BE AN
OPPORTUNITY FOR A PERIOD OF DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING.
SHORTWAVE APPROACHING BRITISH COLUMBIA MOVES TO SCNTRL CANADA THU.
AHEAD OF FEATURE...STRONG WAA PATTERN DEVELOPS INTO THE UPPER
LAKES...AND MODELS DEPICT A SHARPENING 850MB WARM FRONT PUSHING INTO
THE AREA. WITH FRONT SHARPENING AS IT SHIFTS E...ISENTROPIC ASCENT
PER 290/295K SFCS BECOMES STRONGER TO THE E OF THE FCST AREA. SO...
FOR NOW...RETAINED SLIGHT CHC POPS ONLY ACROSS THE KEWEENAW AND E OF
MUNISING TO MANISTIQUE WITH HIGHER POPS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. IT WILL
BE A WARM DAY FOR JAN STANDARDS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE W WHERE
GUIDANCE VALUES NEARING 40F LOOK REASONABLE GIVEN THE WARMTH
SPREADING OUT ACROSS THE DAKOTAS THIS AFTN. TEMPS SHOULD TOP OUT
AROUND 30F/LWR 30S OVER THE E.
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY/...
TRANSITION FM NW FLOW ALOFT TO MORE ZONAL FLOW BY FRIDAY ALLOWS LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH TO STREAK ACROSS MANITOBA/ONTARIO THURSDAY EVENING.
WARM FRONT BRIEFLY WILL PUSH ACROSS UPR MI...BUT SINCE CYCLONIC SIDE
OF JET AND H85-H7 FRONTOGENESIS STAY OVR ONTARIO...EXPECT MAINLY DRY
WX OVR CWA THURSDAY NIGHT. AS SFC LOW MOVES TOWARD SOUTHERN QUEBEC
ON FRIDAY MORNING...A SFC TROUGH SHOULD WORK ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN.
GFS AND NAM SHOW INCREASING MOISTURE BLO H9...MAINLY OVR THE WEST
HALF OF THE CWA...BUT NOT A WHOLE LOT OF UVM IN THAT MOIST LAYER.
WINDS COULD SUPPORT ADDITIONAL UPSLOPE LIFT OVR HIGHER TERRAIN OF
WEST AND NORTHWEST CWA...BUT SINCE TEMPS IN MOIST LAYER ARE MUCH
WARMER THAN -8C THE CHANCE OF ICE WITHIN THE CLOUD IS SLIM. PERHAPS
THERE COULD BE SOME DRIZZLE...BUT SFC DWPNT DEPRESSIONS LOOK TOO
HIGH TO SUPPORT PUTTING THAT IN FCST. WILL RUN WITH A MAINLY CLOUDY
BUT DRY FCST FOR NOW. AS PREVIOUS SHIFT DID...WENT WITH NON-DIURNAL
TEMP TREND THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. READINGS ON FRIDAY MOST AREAS
WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING...THOUGH TEMPS IN THE WEST COULD BE TEMPERED
BY THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER. BETTER PUSH OF COOLER AIR AT H85 OF
AROUND -10C ARRIVES FRIDAY NIGHT. COLD AIR ADVECTION AND DEEPENING
MOISTURE/CONVERGENCE THROUGH H85 SHOULD ALLOW FOR LGT SNOW TO
DEVELOP...HELPED ALONG BY LAKE SUPERIOR SOMEWHAT. LOW CHANCE POPS
OVER NORTHERN HALF OF CWA SEEM ON TRACK...HIGHEST IN AREAS FAVORED
BY NW WINDS. REGIME FOR LGT LK EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS LINGERS THROUGH
MUCH OF SATURDAY.
DAYS 4-7...SPLIT FLOW IS FCST TO RETURN IN UPPER LEVELS BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS UPR LOW DEVELOPS OVER SW CONUS WHILE NORTHERN STREAM
BECOMES MORE ZONAL. BY MID-LATE NEXT WEEK THOUGH EXTENDED MODELS AND
ENSEMBLES INDICATE DEEPER TROUGHING/COLDER AIRMASS WILL BEGIN TO
AFFECT MIDDLE CONUS...INCLUDING THE GREAT LAKES.
INITIALLY...ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT SLIDING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
LEADS TO CHANCES FOR MORE LGT LK EFFECT INTO SUNDAY. BLYR WINDS
START OUT NNW SATURDAY EVENING THEN BACK MORE WNW BY SUNDAY.
GFS/ECMWF BOTH INDICATE SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO SUPPORT LK
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. FCST SOUNDINGS FM GFS INDICATE MAJORITY OF
MOISTURE STAYS BLO DGZ WHICH KEEPS RATIOS ON THE LOWER SIDE OF 20:1.
LGT ACCUMS POSSIBLE BUT SHOULD NOT BE TOO MUCH SNOW GIVEN MARGINAL
OVERWATER INSTABILITY. ZONAL FLOW AND WARM AIR ADVECTIONS TAKES HOLD
BY MONDAY. MID CLOUDS MAKE APPEARANCE GIVEN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION
AND SFC LOW SLIDING BY ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO. WEAK FRONT TIED TO
LOW FCST TO MOVE ACROSS UPR LAKES LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. NOT
ENOUGH MOISTURE TO JUSTIFY MUCH PRECIPITATION THOUGH. IF THERE IS
MUCH PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE TO CONSIDER POSSIBILITY OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION AS H85 TEMPS SURGE WELL ABOVE ZERO AHEAD OF PRIMARY
COLD FRONT ARRIVING LATER WEDNESDAY. SOUNDINGS FM GFS DO INDICATE
THAT EVAPORATIVE COOLING WOULD BRING WET BULB TEMP AOB ZERO THROUGH
LOWEST 5KFT. FOR NOW...TOUGH TO GET TOO CARRIED AWAY FM FINE DETAILS
SO INCLUDED MENTION OF BROADBRUSHED MENTION OF RAIN/SNOW FOR PTYPE
MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE
TUESDAY NIGHT. BASED ON SFC TEMPS BLO FREEZING...CAN NOT RULE OUT
FREEZING RAIN EITHER. THOUGH AS WE GET CLOSER TO THIS TIME FRAME
SUSPECT SFC TEMPS FM MODELS MAY TREND WARMER...ESPECIALLY OUT AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT.
SOME AGREEMENT FM THE GFS/ECMWF THAT LARGER SCALE SYSTEM MAY
AFFECT UPR LAKES BY NEXT WEDNESDAY IN ADVANCE OF CHANGE TO COOLER
WEATHER PATTERN. PTYPE WOULD BE MAINLY SNOW BASED ON COOLING H85
TEMPS. MAIN QUESTION IS HOW MUCH PHASING OCCURS BTWN NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH AT THAT TIME AND THE SOUTHERN STREAM
WAVE SLIDING FM SW CONUS INTO SOUTHERN PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY OHIO
VALLEY. RECENT RUN OF THE ECMWF WAS MOST EMPHATIC WITH PHASING WHILE
PREVIOUS ECMWF RUNS AND RUNS OF THE GFS WERE MORE SEPARATE. EVEN
SO...00Z GFS WOULD HAVE WIDESPREAD SNOW ACROSS UPR LAKES ON
WEDNESDAY DUE TO INCREASING UPR JET DIVERGENCE/MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH. 12Z GFS
TRENDED WEAKER WITH THIS LEAD WAVE OF SNOW FOR WEDNESDAY THOUGH. 12Z
ECMWF HAS ALSO TRENDED MORE SEPARATE WITH BOTH STREAMS. SO PROBABLY
WILL BE AT LEAST SOME LIGHT SNOW AROUND ON WEDNESDAY WITH STRONG
COLD FRONT COMING THROUGH LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY LEADING TO
BLO NORMAL TEMPS AND LAKE EFFECT SNOWS FOR THE LATER PORTION OF NEXT
WEEK FOR MAINLY NORTHWEST WIND SNOW BELTS.
&&
.AVIATION /FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THRU THE END OF THE FCST PERIOD AT
KIWD. WILL GET A BIT GUSTY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
PERSISTENT W TO NW UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN MVFR CIGS MOVING
BACK INTO KCMX OVERNIGHT. AS WINDS BECOME SSE THU MORNING...EXPECT
LOW CLOUDS TO EXIT WITH RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS.
AT KSAW...WHEN WINDS BECOME CALM OVERNIGHT...THERE WILL BE SOME
GROUND FOG AS EVIDENCED EARLIER AT KSAW AND ALSO AT THE OFFICE. WHEN
THE WINDS KICK UP...THE GROUND FOG MIXES OUT. AS WINDS DIE DOWN LATE
TONIGHT...FOG WILL DEVELOP AND VLIFR CONDITIONS WILL SET IN. AS
WINDS BECOME SE IN THE MID MORNING...THE FOG WILL MIX OUT AND VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE /FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE/...
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO UNDER 20KT FROM W TO E TONIGHT INTO THU
MORNING AS SMALL AREA OF SFC HIGH PRES SETTLES SE TO JUST N OF LAKE
SUPERIOR BY MORNING. LIGHTER WINDS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL QUICKLY RAMP UP TO 20-30KT IN THE AFTN DUE TO HEALTHY
PRES FALLS SHIFTING E INTO NRN ONTARIO AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRES
AREA MOVING E ACROSS SCNTRL CANADA. MAGNITUDE OF PRES FALLS SUGGESTS
A SHORT PERIOD OF GALES MAY OCCUR THU EVENING. SINCE MODERATING
AIRMASS/INCREASING STABILITY WILL WORK TO LIMIT STRONGER WINDS...
HAVE OPTED TO HOLD OFF FROM ISSUING A GALE WATCH AT THIS POINT.
20-30KT WINDS WILL LINGER INTO FRI AS THE LOW PRES AREA TRACKS E
JUST TO THE N OF LAKE SUPERIOR. LIGHTER WINDS WILL RETURN FOR
SAT/SUN AS THE PRES GRADIENT SLACKENS WITH THE APPROACH OF HIGH PRES.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ROLFSON
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...07
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
1110 PM EST WED JAN 4 2012
.SYNOPSIS.../ISSUED AT 425 PM/
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING...MAINTAINING OVERALL DRY WEATHER. A DEEP LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES...
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. BLUSTERY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PROPEL
TEMPERATURES TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY. THE TRAILING COLD
FRONT WILL RETURN TEMPERATURES TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS THIS
WEEKEND...WITH SOME MINOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW.
HALBLAUB
&&
.SHORT TERM.../ISSUED AT 1110 PM/...TONIGHT
...ANOTHER NGT OF EXTENSIVE CLDS AND MUCH ABOVE NORMAL LOW TEMPS...
SEQUENCE OF RUC ANALYSES SHOW WEAK/SUBTLE PV ANOMALY ON THE
TROPOPAUSE AROUND 355 MB SLIDING SE THRU THE FCST AREA...IN THE EXIT
REGION OF A 120 KT JET STREAK. HGTS ARE BUILDING IN NW FLOW.
MID-HIGH CLDS IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE ARE DEPARTING TO THE S...
REVEALING WIDESPREAD MVFR STRATUS OVER NRN MI. WE`LL CONTINUE WITH
PERSISTENCE AND MAINTAIN OVC SKIES THE REST OF THE NGT. THE
EXCEPTION IS BENZIE/MANISTEE COUNTIES. WE`VE SEEN CLEARING OVER
LAKE MI HEAD INLAND...WHERE LAKE INSTABILITY IS INSUFFICIENT FOR
LAKE CLDS.
EXTENSIVE LOW CLDS ARE NOT PERMITTING TEMPS TO FALL MUCH. SO LOW
TEMPS WERE RAISED ABOUT 3F...DERIVED FROM MINIMUM 3-HOURLY TEMPS
FROM 12Z NAM MOS. BENZIE/MANISTEE WERE LOWERED WHERE PERIODS OF
CLR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR SOME RADIATING.
SATL SHOWS NEXT BATCH OF MID-HIGH CLDS SPILLING OVER UPSTREAM
RIDGE WITH ITS LEADING EDGE NOW OVER WI. SOME OF THIS WILL AFFECT
BENZIE/MANISTEE OVERNGT.
OTHER THAN SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUDS...NO OTHER SUBSTANTIAL
CHANGES TO THE FCST.
LOW PRES WAS MOVING THRU NRN QUEBEC. ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL
SLIP INTO THE STRAITS AND LAKE HURON AROUND DAWN AS A BACKDOOR
FRONT. CONVERGENCE WILL LIKELY ACT TO MAINTAIN LOW CLOUDS.
CLIMATE: TODAY WAS THE 3RD DAY IN A ROW OF HIGH TEMPS AT OR BELOW
FRZG. THIS IS ONLY THE 2ND TIME THIS HAS OCCURRED SINCE DEC 11TH.
THE LONGEST STRETCH SO FAR THESE SEASON WAS DEC 5TH-10TH. THIS
CURRENT STRETCH ENDS TODAY AS ANOTHER SURGE OF ABOVE-MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS /TYPICAL OF THIS WINTER/ BEGINS TOMORROW. WE JUST
CANNOT SUSTAIN ANY PROLONGED STRETCHES OF SUB-FRZG COLD.
HALBLAUB
&&
.LONG TERM.../ISSUED AT 425 PM/...THURSDAY AND BEYOND
THURSDAY...A MILDER PUSH OF AIR WILL MOVE UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST DUE
TO STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION. IN ADDITION...A WEAK ALBERTA CLIPPER
WILL MOVE BY TO OUR NORTH. MODEL SOUNDINGS/CROSS SECTIONS SHOW LOTS
OF DRY MID LEVEL AIR...SO IT IS LIKELY GOING TO BE TOUGH TO GENERATE
ANY PRECIPITATION. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE WITH THE LOW CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST FOR LIGHT SNOW. AS FAR AS CLOUD COVER
GOES...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED TO PREVAIL...EXPECT BECOMING
PARTLY CLOUDY SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON (WHEN 925 MB RH DROPS OFF
TO AROUND 40 PERCENT). MILDER WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S
NORTHEAST TO AROUND 40 SOUTHWEST.
SULLIVAN
EXTENDED FORECAST SYNOPTIC PATTERN...A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
TO SWING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WITHIN OVERALL AVERAGED NW FLOW
REGIME ALOFT. NO GULF CONNECTION WITH ANY OF THE SYSTEMS...AND NO
STRONG LOW PRESSURE THROUGH TUESDAY TO BRING ANYTHING CONSIDERED
HAZARDOUS. A MILD FRIDAY WILL GET REPLACED BY A BRIEF SHOT OF COLDER
AIR OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT HIGHS STILL AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE JANUARY
NORMALS. TEMPERATURES RISE AGAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BEFORE A
POSSIBLE ABRUPT SHIFT BACK TOP WINTER. MORE ON THAT BELOW.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE NORTH
WOODS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE GFS PLAYING CATCH UP TO THE ECMWF IDEA
OF HOLDING THE SYSTEM COLD FRONT BACK TO THE NW UNTIL FRIDAY. ECMWF
STILL A BIT SLOWER AND MAKING IT A MILDER DAY FRIDAY. THAT SAID...A
CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW MAY HANG ON IN THE EVENING WITHIN FGEN REGION
ON WARM FRONT. NO REAL CHANGE HERE. MOISTURE DOES INCREASE AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...BUT FOR THE MOST PART ITS ABOVE 650MB...SO
NO CHANCE OF PRECIP HITTING GROUND THERE. THE COLDER AIR DOES FILL
IN LATER IN THE DAY...WITH THE FIRST CHANCE FOR LIGHT LAKE EFFECT
SNOWS DEVELOPING AROUND WHITEFISH BAY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS CHANCE
CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND MORE SO INTO THE WEEKEND AS A
SECONDARY SHOT OF COLDER AIR ARRIVES. THIS LOOS TO MORE DEFINITELY
KICK THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UP PAST THE -10C ISOTHERM FOR ICE
INTRODUCTION. COULD MAYBE SEE AN INCH IN SOME SPOTS...MAINLY
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT CERTAINLY NO BARN BURNER OF A SNOW
SCENARIO. HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES SUNDAY NIGHT...PUTTING AN END TO ANY
SNOWS BY MONDAY MORNING. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE 40S IN NRN
LOWER AND UPPER 30S...FALLING BACK INTO THE 30S SATURDAY WITH UPPER
20S/AROUND 30F SUNDAY.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...INCREASING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS AND LOW LEVEL
WARMING ENSUES WITH NO LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL. MOISTURE THAT STREAMS
IN WILL ALL BE MID AND UPPER LEVEL WITH NO CHANCE OF SYNOPTIC
PRECIPITATION EITHER. HIGHS WILL BE MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH
READINGS IN THE 30S.
SNEAK PEEK AT WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK...THERE IS A
DECENT CONSENSUS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AHEAD OF
NRN STREAM UPPER TROUGH THAT MAY PHASE IN SOME DEGREE WITH A SRN
STREAM SYSTEM. BITTERLY COLD AIR GRADUALLY SETTLES IN BY FRIDAY WITH
A PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME.
AMOUNTS WOULD BE RIDICULOUS TO ASSESS AT THIS POINT...BUT A REAL
TASTE OF A HARSHER WINTER COULD BE ON TAP.
SMD
&&
.MARINE.../ISSUED AT 1110 PM/
WINDS ARE GUSTING TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ACROSS WHITEFISH BAY...AND
PARTS OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF NE LOWER MI. IN FACT...WIND DIR HAS
BECOME FAVORABLE FOR COASTAL CONVERGENCE AND PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT HAD
A PEAK G39 KTS LAST HR. THESE GUSTS WILL FALL THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH
A LESSER PRESSURE GRADIENT. NO ISSUES FORESEEN UNTIL THURSDAY-FRIDAY
WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT...THEN COLD FRONT FOR
A HANDFUL OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS AND POSSIBLE WAVES.
SMD/JH
&&
.AVIATION.../ISSUED AT 633 PM/...VALID FOR 00Z TAFS
TNGT: UNRESTRICTED VSBYS AND 1500-2500 FT MVFR CIGS. WINDS
GENERALLY W-NW AROUND 5 KTS...WITH A PERIOD OF GUSTY NW WINDS AT
PLN UNTIL ROUGHLY 06Z. AFTER 09Z...PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS AS WINDS
WILL TURN CALM OR LGT AND VARIABLE.
THU: UNRESTRICTED VSBYS WITH MVFR CIGS LIFTING TO 2500-3000 AND
SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOW-END VFR 3500 FT CIGS. THERE COULD BE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF NO LOW CLOUDS...REVEALING MID-LEVEL CIGS. LGT AND
VARIABLE BECOME S 5-10 KTS AFTER 17Z.
CONFIDENCE HIGH ON WIND.
CONFIDENCE HIGH ON VSBYS.
CONFIDENCE AVERAGE ON CIGS.
CONFIDENCE BELOW AVERAGE ON TIMING/OCCURRENCE OF VFR PERIODS.
HALBLAUB
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LHZ347-348.
LM...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LSZ321-322.
&&
$$
WFO APX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS DULUTH MN
332 AM CST THU JAN 5 2012
.SHORT TERM...AT 08Z...THE FA WAS LOCATED BETWEEN SFC LOW
DEEPENING OVER ALBERTA AND DEPARTING LOW OVER SE ONTARIO. A COUPLE
OF WEAK SFC BOUNDARIES WERE NEARBY WITH ONE ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER...THE OTHER IN WEST CENTRAL MN. BOTH OF THESE
SFC FEATURES WERE DISSOLVING. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WERE STREAMING
THROUGH THE FA AHEAD OF THE ALBERTA LOW IN WAA PATTERN. SOME
PATCHY FOG/HZ WAS LOCATED IN THE SW CORNER OF THE FA. EXPECT THE
ALBERTA SFC LOW TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN BY 00Z FRIDAY.
THIS WILL PUSH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AHEAD OF THE LOW AND ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. NO PCPN IS EXPECTED NEAR THE FRONT TODAY.
HOWEVER...GOOD WAA FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR WILL CLEAR SOME OF
THE CLOUDS AND PUSH MAX TEMPS TO NEAR OR ABOVE RECORD MAX TEMPS
TODAY. DID MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO MAX TEMPS AS DECENT
INVERSION WILL KEEP STRONGER WINDS FROM MIXING DOWN TO THE SFC AND
LIMITING FULL EXTENT OF MAX HEATING. WHAT SNOW COVER IS LEFT WILL
ALSO PLAY A ROLE IN MAX TEMPS.
THE SFC LOW TRAVELS INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO BY 12Z FRIDAY. A TRAILING
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FA BY 06Z FRIDAY SIGNALING THE
ONSET OF CAA. UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA WILL
CATCH THE SFC LOW CENTER BY 12Z FRIDAY. SHORT WAVE ENERGY WITH THE
TROF WILL REMAIN IN CANADA AND WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE FA FREE OF
PCPN TONIGHT AS DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE IN CANADA NEAR THE TRACK OF
THE SFC LOW. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE FA.
ON FRIDAY...THE SFC LOW CENTER REACHES EASTERN ONTARIO WITH COLD AIR
SURGING SEWD THROUGH THE FA BEHIND THE LOW. HOWEVER...THE COLD AIR
WILL BE OFFSET BY THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND -SN/--SN AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROF CROSSES THE FA. MODEL DIFFERENCES FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WITH THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/CAA/WIND TRAJECTORIES OVER
LAKE SUPERIOR TO ADD A MENTION OF LES. DO HAVE THE --SN HOWEVER DUE
TO THE AFOREMENTIONED TROF. EVEN WITH THE CAA...MAX TEMPS WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MAIN STORY WILL BE CONTINUATION OF ANOMALOUS WARMTH WITH MOST OF
REGION UNDER INFLUENCE OF AIR OF PACIFIC ORIGIN...ADDITIONALLY
DRIED/WARMED BY ITS DESCENT FROM THE ROCKIES. AT BEGINNING OF THIS
PERIOD...AN AMPLIFYING TROF IN MID LVL FLOW WILL ESCORT RELATIVELY
COOLER AIR INTO THE CWA DURING THE WEEKEND. COOLER...RELATIVE TO THE
PRECEDING DAYS HIGHS...BUT STILL EXPECTING THAT TEMPS WILL REMAIN
ABOVE TYPICAL JANUARY VALUES. NWLY MID LVL FLOW WITH RESIDUAL DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE SHOULD ALLOW SOME AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIP TO CONTINUE
OVER NRN PART OF MN ZONES AND POSSIBLY OVER ERN WISC ZONES. SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS CWA SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY. WARM ADVECTION
REGIME WILL DEVELOP SUN AFTN AND PERSIST INTO EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE
NEXT SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS REGION. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE QUITE WEAK
IN TERMS OF THERMAL SUPPORT SO TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE CLIMO.
INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN NWP SOLUTION OF MAJOR INTRUSION OF COLD
AIR MIDWEEK AS UPPER TROF AMPLIFIES. THERE ARE LOCATION/TIMING
DIFFERENCES WITH UPPER TROF WITH EC TRENDING SLOWER WITH SYSTEM
AND GFS ON THE FAST SIDE. GFS HAS A KNOWN BIAS OF BEING TOO
PROGRESSIVE WITH NRN BRANCH UPPER TROFS ALTHOUGH IN THIS CASE THE
GEFS MEAN AND THE ENS MEMBERS SUPPORT DETERMINISTIC SPEED. DESPITE
DIFFERENCES ALOFT...85H THERMAL FIELDS ONLY ABOUT 6HRS DIFFERENT
WITH TIMING OF COLD AIR ARRIVAL. OVERALL TREND IS TO MUCH COLDER
WEATHER PATTERN LATE IN THE WEEK. ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTBREAK OF
THE COLD AIR WILL BE INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD LIGHT
SNOWFALL AS ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES AND WRINGS OUT AVAILABLE MOISTURE.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW POTENTIAL SHOULD DEVELOP AS RELATIVELY OPEN/WARM
LAKE SFC ACTS AS AN EFFECTIVE SOURCE OF MOISTURE.
&&
.AVIATION.../06Z TAF ISSUANCE/
BACKED OFF A BIT ON THE DEGREE AND TIMING OF THE VISIBILITIES AT
INL...HIB...AND DLH. HAVE TEMPO GROUPS BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z FOR
MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. THE NAM BUFKIT SHOWS INCREASED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AT THIS TIME FRAME WITH RUC 13 VISIBILITIES
BOTTOMING OUT AT 15Z. BRD AND EVENTUALLY HYR WILL BE THE FAVORED
TERMINALS FOR IFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS AS LOWER VISIBILITIES
HAVE BEEN REPORTED OVER NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA AHEAD OF AN
ADVANCING TROUGH. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AT FOSSTON AND BEMIDJI HAVE
REPORTED SOME SNOW OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS BUT BELIEVE THAT
THIS IS ISOLATED IN NATURE AND WILL SLIDE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF BRD.
LLWS THREAT AHEAD OF ADVANCING WARM FRONT SEEMS MARGINAL FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND SHOULD STAY ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA. WINDS
WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE AERODROMES AROUND 22Z
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT.
&&
.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 40 30 36 22 / 0 0 10 10
INL 41 28 32 19 / 0 10 30 20
BRD 44 30 37 22 / 0 0 10 10
HYR 42 30 38 23 / 0 0 10 10
ASX 40 32 39 25 / 0 0 10 10
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST FRIDAY
FOR LSZ140>147.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM....CANNON
AVIATION...KK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
331 AM CST THU JAN 5 2012
.SHORT TERM...AT 08Z...THE FA WAS LOCATED BETWEEN SFC LOW
DEEPENING OVER ALBERTA AND DEPARTING LOW OVER SE ONTARIO. A COUPLE
OF WEAK SFC BOUNDARIES WERE NEARBY WITH ONE ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER...THE OTHER IN WEST CENTRAL MN. BOTH OF THESE
SFC FEATURES WERE DISSOLVING. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WERE STREAMING
THROUGH THE FA AHEAD OF THE ALBERTA LOW IN WAA PATTERN. SOME
PATCHY FOG/HZ WAS LOCATED IN THE SW CORNER OF THE FA. EXPECT THE
ALBERTA SFC LOW TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN BY 00Z FRIDAY.
THIS WILL PUSH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AHEAD OF THE LOW AND ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. NO PCPN IS EXPECTED NEAR THE FRONT TODAY.
HOWEVER...GOOD WAA FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR WILL CLEAR SOME OF
THE CLOUDS AND PUSH MAX TEMPS TO NEAR OR ABOVE RECORD MAX TEMPS
TODAY. DID MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO MAX TEMPS AS DECENT
INVERSION WILL KEEP STRONGER WINDS FROM MIXING DOWN TO THE SFC AND
LIMITING FULL EXTENT OF MAX HEATING. WHAT SNOW COVER IS LEFT WILL
ALSO PLAY A ROLE IN MAX TEMPS.
THE SFC LOW TRAVELS INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO BY 12Z FRIDAY. A TRAILING
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FA BY 06Z FRIDAY SIGNALING THE
ONSET OF CAA. UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA WILL
CATCH THE SFC LOW CENTER BY 12Z FRIDAY. SHORT WAVE ENERGY WITH THE
TROF WILL REMAIN IN CANADA AND WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE FA FREE OF
PCPN TONIGHT AS DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE IN CANADA NEAR THE TRACK OF
THE SFC LOW. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE FA.
ON FRIDAY...THE SFC LOW CENTER REACHES EASTERN ONTARIO WITH COLD AIR
SURGING SEWD THROUGH THE FA BEHIND THE LOW. HOWEVER...THE COLD AIR
WILL BE OFFSET BY THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND -SN/--SN AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROF CROSSES THE FA. MODEL DIFFERENCES FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WITH THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/CAA/WIND TRAJECTORIES OVER
LAKE SUPERIOR TO ADD A MENTION OF LES. DO HAVE THE --SN HOWEVER DUE
TO THE AFOREMENTIONED TROF. EVEN WITH THE CAA...MAX TEMPS WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MAIN STORY WILL BE CONTINUATION OF ANOMALOUS WARMTH WITH MOST OF
REGION UNDER INFLUENCE OF AIR OF PACIFIC ORIGIN...ADDITIONALLY
DRIED/WARMED BY ITS DESCENT FROM THE ROCKIES. AT BEGINNING OF THIS
PERIOD...AN AMPLIFYING TROF IN MID LVL FLOW WILL ESCORT RELATIVELY
COOLER AIR INTO THE CWA DURING THE WEEKEND. COOLER...RELATIVE TO THE
PRECEDING DAYS HIGHS...BUT STILL EXPECTING THAT TEMPS WILL REMAIN
ABOVE TYPICAL JANUARY VALUES. NWLY MID LVL FLOW WITH RESIDUAL DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE SHOULD ALLOW SOME AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIP TO CONTINUE
OVER NRN PART OF MN ZONES AND POSSIBLY OVER ERN WISC ZONES. SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS CWA SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY. WARM ADVECTION
REGIME WILL DEVELOP SUN AFTN AND PERSIST INTO EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE
NEXT SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS REGION. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE QUITE WEAK
IN TERMS OF THERMAL SUPPORT SO TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE CLIMO.
INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN NWP SOLUTION OF MAJOR INTRUSION OF COLD AIR
MIDWEEK AS UPPER TROF AMPLIFIES. THERE ARE LOCATION/TIMING
DIFFERENCES WITH UPPER TROF WITH EC TRENDING SLOWER WITH SYSTEM AND
GFS ON THE FAST SIDE. GFS HAS A KNOW BIAS OF BEING TOO PROGRESSIVE
WITH NRN BRANCH UPPER TROFS ALTHOUGH IN THIS CASE THE GEFS MEAN AND
THE ENS MEMBERS SUPPORT DETERMINISTIC SPEED. DESPITE DIFFERENCES
ALOFT...85H THERMAL FIELDS ONLY ABOUT 6HRS DIFFERENT WITH TIMING OF
COLD AIR ARRIVAL. OVERALL TREND IS TO MUCH COLDER WEATHER PATTERN
LATE IN THE WEEK. ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTBREAK OF THE COLD AIR WILL
BE INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOWFALL AS ARCTIC AIR
ARRIVES AND WRINGS OUT AVAILABLE MOISTURE. LAKE EFFECT SNOW
POTENTIAL SHOULD DEVELOP AS RELATIVELY OPEN/WARM LAKE SFC ACTS AS AN
EFFECTIVE SOURCE OF MOISTURE.
&&
.AVIATION.../06Z TAF ISSUANCE/
BACKED OFF A BIT ON THE DEGREE AND TIMING OF THE VISIBILITIES AT
INL...HIB...AND DLH. HAVE TEMPO GROUPS BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z FOR
MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. THE NAM BUFKIT SHOWS INCREASED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AT THIS TIME FRAME WITH RUC 13 VISIBILITIES
BOTTOMING OUT AT 15Z. BRD AND EVENTUALLY HYR WILL BE THE FAVORED
TERMINALS FOR IFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS AS LOWER VISIBILITIES
HAVE BEEN REPORTED OVER NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA AHEAD OF AN
ADVANCING TROUGH. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AT FOSSTON AND BEMIDJI HAVE
REPORTED SOME SNOW OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS BUT BELIEVE THAT
THIS IS ISOLATED IN NATURE AND WILL SLIDE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF BRD.
LLWS THREAT AHEAD OF ADVANCING WARM FRONT SEEMS MARGINAL FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND SHOULD STAY ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA. WINDS
WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE AERODROMES AROUND 22Z
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT.
&&
.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 40 30 36 22 / 0 0 10 10
INL 41 28 32 19 / 0 10 30 20
BRD 44 30 37 22 / 0 0 10 10
HYR 42 30 38 23 / 0 0 10 10
ASX 40 32 39 25 / 0 0 10 10
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST FRIDAY
FOR LSZ140>147.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM....CANNON
AVIATION...KK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
1125 PM CST WED JAN 4 2012
.AVIATION.../06Z TAF ISSUANCE/
BACKED OFF A BIT ON THE DEGREE AND TIMING OF THE VISIBILITIES AT
INL...HIB...AND DLH. HAVE TEMPO GROUPS BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z FOR
MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. THE NAM BUFKIT SHOWS INCREASED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AT THIS TIME FRAME WITH RUC 13 VISIBILITIES
BOTTOMING OUT AT 15Z. BRD AND EVENTUALLY HYR WILL BE THE FAVORED
TERMINALS FOR IFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS AS LOWER VISIBILITIES
HAVE BEEN REPORTED OVER NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA AHEAD OF AN
ADVANCING TROUGH. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AT FOSSTON AND BEMIDJI HAVE
REPORTED SOME SNOW OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS BUT BELIEVE THAT
THIS IS ISOLATED IN NATURE AND WILL SLIDE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF BRD.
LLWS THREAT AHEAD OF ADVANCING WARM FRONT SEEMS MARGINAL FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND SHOULD STAY ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA. WINDS
WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE AERODROMES AROUND 22Z
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 904 PM CST WED JAN 4 2012/
UPDATE...
LOWERED INLAND TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES TONIGHT. DE-EMPHASIZED
PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT. DECREASED CLOUDS TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM...
THE SURFACE GRADIENT HAS WEAKENED IN THIS VERY DRY AIR MASS FROM
THE ROCKIES. THIS HAS ALLOWED DECOUPLING OF THE LOWEST LAYERS AND
RAPIDLY PLUNGING TEMPERATURES IN LOW PLACES AND PROTECTED VALLEYS
AWAY FROM LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH A NEGATIVE MOISTURE LAPSE RATE OR
DRYING WITH ALTITUDE IN THE LOWEST LAYERS...MOISTURE TRAPPED BY
THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION WILL MOSTLY CONDENSE OUT AS FROST RATHER
THAN POOL AS FOG...SO WE DE-EMPHASIZED FOG. THE VERY DRY AIR MASS
IS EVAPORATING THICK CIRRUS AND MID CLOUDS MOVING DOWN-WIND FROM
THE TURBULENT LEE-WAVES JUST EAST OF THE ROCKIES...SO WE DECREASED
CLOUDINESS IN THE FORECAST.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 530 PM CST WED JAN 4 2012/
AVIATION.../0Z TAF ISSUANCE/
TOOK THE PESSIMISTIC ROUTE IN REGARDS TO VISIBILITIES BEFORE
SUNRISE. WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING OVER THE AREA EARLIER
TODAY...SOME SNOW HAS MELTED AND IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE AT THE SURFACE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF THE FORMATION
FOR FOG BETWEEN 09Z AND 13Z. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT BRD HAS THE
BEST SHOT AT IFR VISIBILITIES AS CLOUDS WILL NOT BE AS PREVALENT
THERE. WILL WAIT UNTIL THE NEXT FORECAST ISSUANCE TO ADDRESS THE
LLWS POTENTIAL FOR THE WESTERN TERMINALS. AS OF NOW...MARGINAL
CHANCES OF SEEING THIS AT INL AND BRD AFTER 18Z.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CST WED JAN 4 2012/
SHORT TERM...THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS IS THE RECORD
BREAKING WARM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.
AT 330 PM...THE CLOUDS HAD BROKEN UP CONSIDERABLY ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND. THE EXCEPTIONS ARE IN AN AREA OF THE ARROWHEAD...ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR...AND IN EASTERN AREAS OF NW WI. TEMPERATURES SOARED
THROUGH THE 30S FOR AREAS EXPERIENCING SUNSHINE...WITH BIGFORK
REPORTING 41 DEGREES AT 330 PM. THE TEMPERATURES IN THE BRAINERD
LAKES AREA WERE APPROACHING 40...WITH MID TO UPPER 30S IN THE TWIN
PORTS AREA AS WELL.
THE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE NE AS THE NIGHT WEARS
ON...AND INTO THURSDAY. THINK THE CLOUDS COULD BE MOST STUBBORN
ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD AND ACROSS AREAS OF NW WI. THIS COULD KEEP
TEMPS UP A BIT IN THOSE AREAS...WHILE THE REST OF THE WARM SECTOR
HAS HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS TO TRY TO KEEP
TEMPS UP THROUGH THE NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE WITH A LOW TEMPERATURE
FORECAST IN THE TEENS FOR THE MOST PART.
THURSDAY WILL BE A DAY WITH LIKELY RECORD BREAKING TEMPS...AS H85
TEMPS WARM INTO THE +5 TO +10C RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE CWA. HAVE
BUMPED UP TEMPS INTO THE MID 40S FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. TIME
HEIGHT PROFILES AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A FAIR AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE FOR THE AREA AS WELL.
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP TO THE SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING SOMEWHAT COLDER TEMPERATURES...BUT STILL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS. COULD BE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH
LATER THURSDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
RELATIVELY ACTIVE NWLY FLOW EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH WEAK 500MB
RIPPLES IN THE LARGE-SCALE SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHT
CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NRN TIER COUNTIES FROM
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.
HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S SOUTH TO LOWER 30S
NORTH. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL DROP BACK INTO THE
20S FOR HIGHS AND TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS ABV ZERO FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS. THE REST OF NORTHLAND...AREAS TO THE SOUTH...WILL REMAIN
BASICALLY DRY FRI THROUGH TUESDAY NEXT WEEK. A LONG WAVE RIDGE
BUILDS INTO THE WRN CONUS SUN AND MON...WITH A WARM BUBBLE OF HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHING TEMPS ONCE AGAIN WELL ABOVE AVERAGE MON AND TUE.
TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL RANGE FROM THE 30S DURING THE DAY TO
UPPER TEENS AND 20S AT NIGHT. BY LATE TUESDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK HOWEVER THE RIDGE RAPIDLY BREAKS DOWN AS A COLD UPPER LOW
DROPS SEWD FROM WRN CANADA INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND BRINGS WITH
IT BETTER CHANCES FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ALONG WITH MUCH
COLDER...NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.
&&
.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 16 43 29 36 / 0 0 0 0
INL 18 45 27 33 / 0 0 10 20
BRD 18 46 29 38 / 0 0 0 0
HYR 11 45 29 38 / 0 0 0 0
ASX 14 42 31 39 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THURSDAY TO 4 AM CST FRIDAY FOR
LSZ140>147.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...EOM
AVIATION...KK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ABERDEEN SD
241 AM CST THU JAN 5 2012
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY
THE FORECAST CHALLENGE CENTERS ON TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.
CURRENTLY...TEMPERATURES ARE MAINLY IN THE 20S AND 30S AS
SCATTERED CIRRUS CLOUDS SPILL INTO THE CWA FROM THE NORTHWEST.
VERY WARM AIR JUST OFF THE SURFACE...PER RUC 925HPA THERMAL PROGS
SHOWING +9C TO +18C AIR OVERHEAD.
CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BE AROUND TODAY. HOWEVER...NOT SO
CONCERNED WITH THEIR INHIBITING RECORD OR NEAR RECORD WARMTH FROM
OCCURRING TODAY. PER PNSABR PRODUCT...COULD BE SETTING SOME
ALL-TIME RECORD HIGHS FOR THE MONTH OF JANUARY TODAY AS WELL. STAY
TUNED.
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MAINLY
TONIGHT...WITH SOMEWHAT STRONGER NWRLY SFC WINDS DEVELOPING LATE
TONIGHT AND DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY WHEN LOW LEVEL WEAK CAA WILL
BE OCCURRING. BREEZY TO WINDY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE COVERED IN THE
WIND GRIDS.
SO...WITH A DRY FORECAST PERSISTING THROUGH THE SHORT
RANGE...TODAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST OF THE NEXT THREE
DAYS...WITH NOTABLY COOLER /BUT STILL ABOVE CLIMO NORMAL/
CONDITIONS SETTING UP FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
DECENT AGREEMENT EXISTS WITH LONGWAVE PATTERN THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK...WITH SOME SPREAD IN HANDLING OF A MODEST ARCTIC
BLAST FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. BUT BEFORE THE BOTTOM
DROPS OUT ON OUR MILD JANUARY...WILL SEE DECENT WARM ADVECTION AND
EFFICIENT MIXING FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. H85 TEMPERATURES TOP
6C...A STANDARD DEVIATION ABOVE CLIMO. AS OF YET...NO PRECIP WITH
THIS PATTERN SO WITH DRY GROUND...MAX TEMPERATURES COULD MAKE A RUN
AT RECORDS AGAIN THOSE DAYS. A RATHER COMPACT...STRONG WAVE WILL
MOVE ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY PM...THOUGH PRECIPITATION SHOULD
REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION. MORE IMPORTANTLY...COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM BRINGS AN ARCTIC AIRMASS INTO
THE NORTHERN CONUS. MAIN ISSUE THIS LATE IN THE PERIOD IS THE
TEMPERATURES IN THE CORE OF COLDEST AIR...AND THE STEERING FLOW
FOR THE AIRMASS...WHICH WILL DETERMINE IN LATER FORECASTS THE
DURATION OF THIS COLD SNAP.
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT ALL TERMINALS FOR TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DORN
LONG TERM...CONNELLY
AVIATION...MOHR
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
728 AM EST THU JAN 5 2012
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 12Z TAFS
.SYNOPSIS...
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW NW FLOW ALF OVER
THE GRT LKS BTWN RDG OVER THE ROCKIES AND TROFFING IN THE E. MASS OF
LO CLD ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWV DIGGING SEWD THRU LWR MI LINGERS OVER
THE E HALF OF THE CWA TOWARD LLVL THERMAL TROF TO THE E...BUT
MARGINAL CHILL OF AIRMASS PER 00Z APX RAOB SHOWING INVRN BASE TEMP
OF -8C JUST BLO H85 IS TOO WARM TO SUPPORT LES. MORE SCT CLDS ARE
EVIDENT OVER THE WRN CWA. TO THE NW...HI PRES IS BLDG THRU NW
ONTARIO TOWARD THE CWA BEHIND COLD FNT MOVING SEWD ACRS ONTARIO AND
UNDER 12Z-24Z H3 RISES UP TO 100M OBSVD OVER SCNTRL CAN IN ADVANCE
OF ROCKIES RDG. BUT THERE IS PLENTY OF MID/HI CLD STRETCHING FM
SCNTRL CAN INTO NRN MN ASSOCIATED WITH WAD OVER A SHARP H85 WARM FNT
IN SCNTRL CAN THAT IS CONTRIBUTING TO THE HGT RISES. VERY WARM AIR
IS EVIDENT OVER THE HI PLAINS...WITH 00Z H85 TEMP AS HI AS 12C AT
GLASGOW MT. WELL UPSTREAM...A STRONGER SHRTWV IS MOVING ONSHORE OVER
THE PAC NW.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
EVEN THOUGH THE PASSAGE OF A SERIES OF SHRTWVS WL MAINTAIN A NW FLOW
ALF THRU THIS WEEKEND...A FAIRLY BENIGN WX PATTERN FOR JAN WL
PREVAIL WITH RELATIVELY MILD MARITIME POLAR PACIFIC AIRMASSES
DOMINATING.
TDAY...THE SFC HI BLDG THRU ONTARIO IS FCST TO SLIDE STEADILY TO THE
SE AND INTO FAR SW QUEBEC BY LATE AFTN. AS SHRTWV NOW MOVING ONSHORE
IN THE PAC NW FLATTENS THE ROCKIES RDG AND MOVES TO NEAR LK WINNIPEG
BY 00Z FRI...A SFC LO ORGANIZING OVER NRN ALBERTA THIS MRNG WILL
FOLLOW TO THAT AREA LATE IN THE DAY. ALTHOUGH THE LLVL NNE FLOW ON
THE SW FLANK OF THE HI PASSING TO THE NE WL MAINTAIN LO CLD AND
POSSIBLY SOME FLURRIES ESPECIALLY OVER THE NE HALF OF THE FA...
STEADILY VEERING FLOW TO THE S LATER IN THE DAY AHEAD OF INCOMING
WARM FNT ATTENDANT TO THE LK WINNIPEG LO SHOULD CAUSE THIS CLD TO
RETREAT. HOWEVER...THE GFS FCST H95-9 RH HINTS THIS CLD MAY BE MORE
RESILIENT. SFC OBS FM NW ONTARIO/ADJOINING MANITOBA SUPPORT THIS
MORE PESSIMISTIC FCST. SINCE THE DEEPER MSTR/MOST VIGOROUS DEEP LYR
QVECTOR CNVGC ASSOCIATED WITH THE ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS PROGGED TO
STAY TO THE NE...THE SYNOPTIC PCPN SHOULD HOLD MAINLY OVER THE NE
HALF OF LK SUP. EXPECT THE WARMEST DAYTIME TEMPS TO BE OVER THE FAR
W...WHERE MODEL FCST H100-85 THKNS IS FCST TO REACH NEAR 1320M AT
IWD WITH DOWNSLOPING SSW WIND. UPSTREAM HI TEMPS YDAY IN THE NRN
PLAINS FOR SIMILAR THKNS WERE ARND 40. GOING FCST HI TEMPS APPEAR ON
TRACK AND NEED LTL ADJUSTMENT.
TNGT...SHRTWV/SFC LO NEAR LK WINNIPEG IS PROGGED TO MOVE EWD AND TO
OVER ONTARIO JUST N OF LK SUP BY 12Z FRI. AS THE WARM FNT ADVANCES
WITH THE RETREAT OF COLD AIR TO THE E...EXPECT ANY LINGERING LO CHC
POPS OVER THE NE CWA IN THE EVNG TO PUSH INTO SE ONTARIO AND GIVE
WAY TO A PERIOD OF CLR-PCLDY SKIES WITH THE ARRIVAL OF WARMER/DRIER
AIR. COMBINATION OF STEADY WLY FLOW WITH H925 WINDS AS HI AS
30-40KTS UNDER SHARP PRES GRADIENT TO THE S OF LO CENTER AND INFLUX
OF MILD PACIFIC AIR WITH H100-85 THKNS HOLDING FM 1300 TO 1320M THRU
THE NGT INDICATES MIN TEMPS WL BE WELL ABV NORMAL. TENDED TOWARD THE
HIER END OF GUIDANCE FOR THIS FCST.
FRI...SHRTWV TRACKING ACRS ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC IS FCST TO DEEPEN UPR
TROF OVER THE GRT LKS. WITH SHARPENING CYC FLOW OF COLDER AND
MOISTER AIR UNDER THE FALLING HGTS...EXPECT QUITE A BIT OF LO CLD TO
DVLP...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS DOWNWIND OF THE LK IN SLOWLY VEERING FLOW
TO NW. ALTHOUGH THE AIRMASS IS INITIALLY TOO WARM FOR LES WITH H85
TEMPS AT 12Z FRI NO LOWER THAN -3/-4C...THESE TEMPS ARE FCST TO SINK
AS LO AS -9C OR SO BY LATE IN THE DAY OVER THE KEWEENAW. MODEL FCST
SDNGS INDICATE DEEPER MSTR WL ALSO REACH THE DGZ IN THE AFTN AT
LEAST OVER THE W...SO WENT WITH CHC POPS FOR LES THEN. BUT LACK OF
FCST OMEGA WITHIN THE DGZ SUGS ANY SN WL BE ON THE LGT SIDE.
CONSIDERED ADDING FZDZ OVER THE KEWEENAW IN THE MRNG IN AREAS WHERE
TEMPS ARE AOB 32...BUT STRONG WINDS THAT WL ENHANCE MIXING/MORE
INVERTED V SDNGS AS WELL AS INITIALLY HIER SFC DEWPT DEPRESSIONS PER
MOS GUIDANCE SUG THE BEST STRATEGY IS TO KEEP THIS OUT OF FCST ATTM.
THE HIEST MAX TEMPS WL OCCUR OVER THE SCNTRL WHERE STRONG WNW FLOW
DOWNSLOPES AND COLDER AIR IS LATER TO ARRIVE. TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO
FALL IN THE AFTN AS THE COLDER AIR MAKES MORE PROGRESS INTO THE CWA.
FRI NGT...WITH LINGERNING LLVL CYC NW FLOW AND H85 THERMAL TROF/
TEMPS SINKING TO ARND -12C...EXPECT LES CHANCES/PLENTY OF LO CLD TO
PERSIST. BUMPED GOING POPS UP TO HI CHC TO ACCOUNT FOR
CLIMATOLICALLY FAVORABLE PATTERN WITH MARGINAL THERMAL INSTABILITY
(LK WATER TEMPS ARND 3C). GIVEN THE CLD COVER AND STEADY NW FLOW
THRU THE NGT...EXPECT TEMPS TO BE WELL ABV NORMAL AND ON THE HI SIDE
OF GUIDANCE.
SAT/SAT NGT...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES...MODEL GUIDANCE
HINTS AT THE ARRIVAL OF ANOTHER SHRTWV DURING THIS TIME...WITH
SHARPENING OF LK ENHANCED TROFFING OVER THE NRN TIER. SO MAINTAINED
HI CHC POPS ON SAT WITH SOMEWHAT LOWER VALUES ON SAT NGT GIVEN TREND
TOWARD HGT RISES/WEAKENING TROF/DRYING ALF LATER SAT INTO SUN. TEMPS
WL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.
EXTENDED PERIOD...GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR WARMER
AIRMASS TO SLOWLY SEEP INTO THE UPR LKS BY TUE UNDER BLDG RDG...SO
TENDED TO RAISE ALLBLEND TEMPS A DEGREE OR 2 TO ACCOUNT FOR
CONFIDENCE IN THE ARRIVAL OF THIS WARMER PACIFIC AIR. RETURN TO
COLDER AIR AND SN STILL POSSIBLE FOR NEXT WED WITH 00Z ECMWF/GFS
SHOWING A DEEPENING TROF.
&&
.AVIATION /FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
CEIGS AND VIS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. THE SAME CAN NOT BE SAID FOR CMX AND SAW...WHICH
START OFF UNDER MVFR CONDITIONS. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEGINNING
TO SCOUR OUT FROM THE NORTHWEST...AND SHOULD COME BACK UP TO VFR
AROUND 14Z. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE LOWER CLOUDS COULD
STICK AROUND A BIT LONGER. THE MAIN STORY WILL BE STRENGTHENING
WINDS FROM MID EVENING ON. WHILE THE WINDS SHOULD PICK UP AND BE
GUSTY AT THE SFC AT IWD AND CMX...LLWS WAS ADDED AT SAW.
&&
.MARINE /FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE FROM EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR TO
SOUTHWESTERN QUEBEC TODAY...AS LOW PRESSURE NEARS FROM CENTRAL
SASKATCHEWAN. THIS WILL RESULT IN WINDS NEARING GALES...WITH MAINLY
GALE FORCE GUSTS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY NEAR THE SOUTHERN
SHORELINES OF LS. EXPECT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO DEEPEN TO
NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR FRIDAY MORNING...BEFORE FILLING SLIGHTLY OVER
SOUTHWESTERN QUEBEC FRIDAY NIGHT. A WEAK LOW WILL CROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT...AHEAD OF RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FOR
SUNDAY. PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL DIMINISH FROM
MONDAY MORNING TO DAYBREAK TUESDAY...AS A LOW ORGANIZES OVER CENTRAL
CANADA.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KC
DISCUSSION...KC
AVIATION...KF
MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS DULUTH MN
609 AM CST THU JAN 5 2012
.AVIATION...12Z TAF ISSUANCE...
EXTENSIVE MID/HIGH CLOUD CANOPY SLIDING SE ACROSS MOST OF CWA THIS
MORNING. BR HAS BEEN ISOLATED AND HAVE TONED DOWN POTENTIAL IN
FCST EARLY TODAY. CONFIDENCE STILL NOT HIGH AS FCST SNDGS IMPLY AN
EARLY MORNING PERIOD OF POTENTIAL LOW CLOUD ASSOCIATED WITH
STRENGTHENING WARM ADVECTION PATTERN. GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE LATE
AFTN/EARLY EVENING AS PRESS GRADIENT INCREASES.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 AM CST THU JAN 5 2012/
SHORT TERM...AT 08Z...THE FA WAS LOCATED BETWEEN SFC LOW
DEEPENING OVER ALBERTA AND DEPARTING LOW OVER SE ONTARIO. A COUPLE
OF WEAK SFC BOUNDARIES WERE NEARBY WITH ONE ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER...THE OTHER IN WEST CENTRAL MN. BOTH OF THESE
SFC FEATURES WERE DISSOLVING. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WERE STREAMING
THROUGH THE FA AHEAD OF THE ALBERTA LOW IN WAA PATTERN. SOME
PATCHY FOG/HZ WAS LOCATED IN THE SW CORNER OF THE FA. EXPECT THE
ALBERTA SFC LOW TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN BY 00Z FRIDAY.
THIS WILL PUSH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AHEAD OF THE LOW AND ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. NO PCPN IS EXPECTED NEAR THE FRONT TODAY.
HOWEVER...GOOD WAA FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR WILL CLEAR SOME OF
THE CLOUDS AND PUSH MAX TEMPS TO NEAR OR ABOVE RECORD MAX TEMPS
TODAY. DID MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO MAX TEMPS AS DECENT
INVERSION WILL KEEP STRONGER WINDS FROM MIXING DOWN TO THE SFC AND
LIMITING FULL EXTENT OF MAX HEATING. WHAT SNOW COVER IS LEFT WILL
ALSO PLAY A ROLE IN MAX TEMPS.
THE SFC LOW TRAVELS INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO BY 12Z FRIDAY. A TRAILING
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FA BY 06Z FRIDAY SIGNALING THE
ONSET OF CAA. UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA WILL
CATCH THE SFC LOW CENTER BY 12Z FRIDAY. SHORT WAVE ENERGY WITH THE
TROF WILL REMAIN IN CANADA AND WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE FA FREE OF
PCPN TONIGHT AS DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE IN CANADA NEAR THE TRACK OF
THE SFC LOW. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE FA.
ON FRIDAY...THE SFC LOW CENTER REACHES EASTERN ONTARIO WITH COLD AIR
SURGING SEWD THROUGH THE FA BEHIND THE LOW. HOWEVER...THE COLD AIR
WILL BE OFFSET BY THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND -SN/--SN AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROF CROSSES THE FA. MODEL DIFFERENCES FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WITH THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/CAA/WIND TRAJECTORIES OVER
LAKE SUPERIOR TO ADD A MENTION OF LES. DO HAVE THE --SN HOWEVER DUE
TO THE AFOREMENTIONED TROF. EVEN WITH THE CAA...MAX TEMPS WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.
LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MAIN STORY WILL BE CONTINUATION OF ANOMALOUS WARMTH WITH MOST OF
REGION UNDER INFLUENCE OF AIR OF PACIFIC ORIGIN...ADDITIONALLY
DRIED/WARMED BY ITS DESCENT FROM THE ROCKIES. AT BEGINNING OF THIS
PERIOD...AN AMPLIFYING TROF IN MID LVL FLOW WILL ESCORT RELATIVELY
COOLER AIR INTO THE CWA DURING THE WEEKEND. COOLER...RELATIVE TO THE
PRECEDING DAYS HIGHS...BUT STILL EXPECTING THAT TEMPS WILL REMAIN
ABOVE TYPICAL JANUARY VALUES. NWLY MID LVL FLOW WITH RESIDUAL DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE SHOULD ALLOW SOME AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIP TO CONTINUE
OVER NRN PART OF MN ZONES AND POSSIBLY OVER ERN WISC ZONES. SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS CWA SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY. WARM ADVECTION
REGIME WILL DEVELOP SUN AFTN AND PERSIST INTO EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE
NEXT SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS REGION. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE QUITE WEAK
IN TERMS OF THERMAL SUPPORT SO TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE CLIMO.
INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN NWP SOLUTION OF MAJOR INTRUSION OF COLD
AIR MIDWEEK AS UPPER TROF AMPLIFIES. THERE ARE LOCATION/TIMING
DIFFERENCES WITH UPPER TROF WITH EC TRENDING SLOWER WITH SYSTEM
AND GFS ON THE FAST SIDE. GFS HAS A KNOWN BIAS OF BEING TOO
PROGRESSIVE WITH NRN BRANCH UPPER TROFS ALTHOUGH IN THIS CASE THE
GEFS MEAN AND THE ENS MEMBERS SUPPORT DETERMINISTIC SPEED. DESPITE
DIFFERENCES ALOFT...85H THERMAL FIELDS ONLY ABOUT 6HRS DIFFERENT
WITH TIMING OF COLD AIR ARRIVAL. OVERALL TREND IS TO MUCH COLDER
WEATHER PATTERN LATE IN THE WEEK. ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTBREAK OF
THE COLD AIR WILL BE INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD LIGHT
SNOWFALL AS ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES AND WRINGS OUT AVAILABLE MOISTURE.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW POTENTIAL SHOULD DEVELOP AS RELATIVELY OPEN/WARM
LAKE SFC ACTS AS AN EFFECTIVE SOURCE OF MOISTURE.
AVIATION.../06Z TAF ISSUANCE/
BACKED OFF A BIT ON THE DEGREE AND TIMING OF THE VISIBILITIES AT
INL...HIB...AND DLH. HAVE TEMPO GROUPS BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z FOR
MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. THE NAM BUFKIT SHOWS INCREASED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AT THIS TIME FRAME WITH RUC 13 VISIBILITIES
BOTTOMING OUT AT 15Z. BRD AND EVENTUALLY HYR WILL BE THE FAVORED
TERMINALS FOR IFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS AS LOWER VISIBILITIES
HAVE BEEN REPORTED OVER NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA AHEAD OF AN
ADVANCING TROUGH. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AT FOSSTON AND BEMIDJI HAVE
REPORTED SOME SNOW OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS BUT BELIEVE THAT
THIS IS ISOLATED IN NATURE AND WILL SLIDE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF BRD.
LLWS THREAT AHEAD OF ADVANCING WARM FRONT SEEMS MARGINAL FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND SHOULD STAY ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA. WINDS
WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE AERODROMES AROUND 22Z
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT.
&&
.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 40 30 36 22 / 0 0 10 10
INL 41 28 32 19 / 0 10 30 20
BRD 44 30 37 22 / 0 0 10 10
HYR 42 30 38 23 / 0 0 10 10
ASX 40 32 39 25 / 0 0 10 10
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST FRIDAY
FOR LSZ140>147.
&&
$$
AVIATION...CANNON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
1003 AM EST THU JAN 5 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR TODAY INTO TONIGHT
MOSTLY IN THE SYRACUSE AND ROME AREAS OF NEW YORK. A WARM FRONT
WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY AND BRING MILDER AIR FOR
FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATED AT 10 AM... WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH HAS PASSED EAST ACROSS
THE AREA THIS MORNING. 290 DEGREE FLOW BEHIND THIS WAVE WITH
MARGINALLY COLD AIR AROUND -10 C HAS RESULTED IN SOME LIGHT LAKE
EFFECT SNOW. 12Z BUF SOUNDING CONFIRMS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING
AN INVERSION HTS AROUND 6 KFT WITH FLOW FROM AROUND 290 AND T850
AROUND -9. LOCAL ANALOG PROGRAM INDICATES WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON BUT WITH ANY ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY AN
INCH OR LESS. HRRR MODEL SHOWS WEAKENING SNOW SHOWERS MOVING
SOUTH THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON THEN DISSIPATING. ANOTHER FACTOR
THAT WILL LIMIT ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE MILD
SURFACE TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE FREEZING IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND
SYRACUSE AREAS. BASED ON THIS EXPECT ANY ACCUMULATIONS TO BE AN
INCH OR LESS AND MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN BETWEEN BGM AND SYR.
UPDATED AT 330 AM...
LIGHT FLURRIES AND SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. A WEAK FRONT WILL GO THROUGH TODAY WITH LIMITED MOISTURE.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALL BELOW 10K FT WITH A SHALLOW DENDRITE ZONE
AT THE TOP OF THE CLOUDS. A WESTERLY FLOW IS SHIFTING TO 290 WHICH
SHOULD BRING SOME BETTER SNOW SHOWERS INTO ONEIDA COUNTY NY. STILL
NOT IMPRESSIVE WITH ONLY SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR THAN NOW. INSTABILITY
CONDITIONAL. SNOW AMOUNTS ONLY A INCH OR TWO WITH JUST FLURRIES IN
THE SOUTHERN TIER WHILE AROUND AVP PROBABLY NO SNOW AT ALL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPDATED AT 330 AM...
WEAK SYSTEMS AND MINIMAL QPF AND SNOWFALL. WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.
THE WNW FLOW CONTINUES THIS EVENING BEFORE SHIFTING TO SW WITH A
WARM FRONT. SHEAR WILL INCREASE SO LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL BE WEAK.
MOISTURE WITH THE FRONT ONLY AT MID LEVELS. AGAIN WILL BE TOUGH TO
GET MUCH SNOW ACCUMULATION. ANY SNOW SHOULD BE AGAIN IN NY.
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW OVER THE NW GREAT LAKES. WARM SW FLOW TONIGHT
SO TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INITIALLY THEN LEVEL OFF.
BY FRIDAY MORNING MOST OF THE LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES WILL BE
GONE. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND FLURRIES IN ONEIDA COUNTY NY WITH
A LITTLE LAKE MOISTURE AND WEST LL FLOW. FRIDAY WARMEST DAY OF THE
WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW AND MID 40S WITH SOME SUNSHINE
ESPECIALLY IN NE PA.
MILD DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE APPROACH
OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. THE SFC LOW WILL BE MOVING EAST NEAR
SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY INTO THE MARITIMES FRI TO SAT. THIS FRONT WILL
TAKE ITS TIME CROSSING THE CWA SAT AND SAT NGT. IF THE FRONT IS
LATER TEMPERATURES COULD EASILY BE WARMER THAN THE UPPER 30S AND
L40S FORECASTING NOW. FRI NGT TO SAT IF ANY SHOWERS OCCUR MAY BE
RAIN OR SNOW. SAT NGT ON AGAIN COLD ENOUGH FOR JUST SNOW. FLOW
SHIFTS TO NW WITH CAA AND A SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH. SNOW
SHOWERS AGAIN MAINLY IN CENTRAL NY. NOT IMPRESSIVE WITH 850 AIR
NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR JUST LAKE EFFECT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPDATE 230 AM...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO FORECAST AS LATEST SUITE
OF MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND TELLS THE
SAME STORY AS PREVIOUS RUN.
PREVIOUS DISC...
MODELS IN AGREEMENT FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A BROAD TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN US. SOME WEAK SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. THEY WILL TRY TO SET OFF SOME PRECIPITATION
OVER THE CWA. HOWEVER, THIS LOOKS TO BE LIGHT AND CLOSER TO THE
LAKE SHORE, NOT TOO MENTION A GREAT AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY THAT ANY
OF IT WILL BE MEASURABLE. GIVEN THIS, HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHC
POPS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. MAIN THOUGHTS BEHIND THE LOW
POPS AND HIGH UNCERTAINTY ARE THE FACT THAT THE 700MB FLOW IS FROM
THE WEST SOUTH WEST AND THE 850 TEMPS ARE ONLY ABOUT -6C OVER LAKE
ERIE, WHICH IS NOT TOO EXCITING FOR LAKE EFFECT THIS TIME OF YEAR.
THERE DOES LOOK TO BE A WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTER, BUT IT IS VERY
WEAK AND GOES WAY TO THE NORTH, WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
VERY QUICKLY BEHIND IT.
THE ECMWF HAS CHANGED DRAMATICALLY SINCE YESTERDAYS RUNS, WHERE IT
HAD THE NOR`EASTER OVER NEW YORK CITY ON MONDAY. NOW, IT IS IN MUCH
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS AND HAS THE LOW NEAR BERMUDA, WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CWA. GIVEN THIS, AND WARMER TEMPERATURES
NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGHS BEING NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL, HAVE
KEPT THE CWA DRY FROM MONDAY ON.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE MID TO
LATE MORNING HOURS. IN GENERAL MVFR CIGS WILL PRECEDE AND FOLLOW
THE FRONT WITH MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR SNOW SHOWERS AT KRME/KSYR
DUE TO LAKE EFFECT. AT KRME THE SNOW SHOWERS ARE MOST LIKELY
BETWEEN 12Z-14Z AND 14Z-16Z AT KSYR. BRIEF MVFR SNOW SHOWERS ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE AT KITH BETWEEN 15Z-18Z. AT KAVP, ONLY BRIEF MVFR
CIGS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THIS FRONT.
THIS EVENING AS THE FLOW BACKS AND WEAKENS A WARM FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE AREA. LINGERING LAKE CLOUDS WILL KEEP MVFR CIGS
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AT KBGM/KITH/KSYR/KRME. AFTER 06Z, LOW
CLOUDS SHOULD SCATTER OUT WITH A MID DECK ABOVE DUE TO THE
APPROACHING WARM FRONT.
SOUTHWEST WINDS 5-10 KNOTS BUT GUSTY AT SYR BECOMING NORTHWEST
BEHIND FROPA AT 10-12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS. THE WINDS
WILL DIMINISH BY MID AFTERNOON THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS
EVENING.
.OUTLOOK...
FRI AND FRI NGT...MOSTLY VFR.
SAT THROUGH MON...OCNL RESTRICTIONS IN LWR
CIGS/-SHRA/-SHSN...SPCLY NY STATE TERMINALS (KSYR/KRME/KITH/KBGM).
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...MSE/TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...RRM/SLI
AVIATION...RRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
704 AM EST THU JAN 5 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS
THE STATE THIS MORNING. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH
THE COMMONWEALTH TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A POTENT CLIPPER SYSTEM
TRACKING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND ADJACENT SOUTHEASTERN
CANADA. THIS SYSTEM WILL DRAW UNSEASONABLY MILD AIR INTO THE REGION
ACCOMPANIED BY BREEZY WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH DAYTIME HIGHS
AVERAGING WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS ON FRIDAY. THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS MAINLY DRY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
IR AND WATER VAPOR SHOWS A DISTINCT LINE OF CLOUDS AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT WHICH IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL PA. THIS IS AHEAD OF
A 500 MB TROUGH ACCORDING TO THE RUC WHICH WILL CONTINUE ITS
EASTWARD MOVEMENT. LOW STRATOCU WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE...ESPECIALLY THE NW MTNS AND THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS. BY THURSDAY MORNING EXPECT THE DOWNSLOPE EFFECT TO BEGIN
WITH CLOUDY SKIES BEGINNING TO CLEAR. LACK OF MOISTURE WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL REDUCE...IF NOT ELIMINATE ANY CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION. A WIND SHIFT TO THE WNW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DRAW
SOME MOISTURE OFF OF LK ERIE...RESULTING IN SCT -SHSN/FLURRIES ALONG
THE ALLEGHENY MTNS. INVERSION HGTS WILL REMAIN LOW /MAINLY ARND 5KFT
PER MDL SOUNDINGS/...SO EXPECT ANY ACCUMS TO BE LIMITED TO A
DUSTING. HAVE BROUGHT UP TEMPS AS THE LOW STRATO CU WILL LESSEN ANY
CHANCE FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP SIGNIFICANTLY TOWARDS MORNING. AS
STATED...EXPECT THE LOW STRATOCU TO BEGIN TO LIFT AS THE DAY
CONTINUES AND A WEAK RIDGE BEGINS TO CAUSE WARM AIR ADVECTION
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. THE ECMWF AND GFS TEMPS AT 850 MB TEMPS DIFFER
GREATLY. DOWNSLOPING WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY CAUSED BY A
PASSING JET STREAM...AND A DECENT 850MB GRADIENT WILL FILTER TO THE
SFC...DUE TO A WEAK INVERSION AND MIXING UP TO 1 TO 3KFT. GUSTY
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL FADE BY EARLY EVENING. ANY CLOUDS LEFT
WILL DRY AS THE EVENING CONTINUES WITH CLEARING SKIES BY FRIDAY
MORNING...THROUGH DUE TO THE PASSING OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
LOW ALONG THE US AND CANADIAN BORDER THE CLOUDS ALONG THE PA AND NY
BORDER WILL REMAIN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
ZONAL FLOW OF ESSENTIALLY A PACIFIC/MODIFIED CP AIRMASS WILL AFFECT
OUR LOCAL WEATHER THIS PERIOD AS A RATHER VIGOROUS SFC LOW MOVES ESE
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND SRN ONTARIO.
DRY...MILD CONDITIONS WITH VARYING AMOUNTS OF STRATO AND ALTO CU
WILL OCCUR WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE CLOUD COVER FOCUSED ACROSS THE
NRN AND WRN MTNS...WHERE WEST-SWRLY ISENTROPIC/OROGRAPHIC LIFT WILL
BE MAXIMIZED.
MAX TEMPS FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S ACROSS THE NRN
MTNS...AND 45 TO 50F ELSEWHERE WILL BE 10-12F ABOVE NORMAL IN THE
VALLEYS...AND AS MUCH AS 15-18F ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.
MIN TEMPS NEAR DAYBREAK SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID
30S...CONTINUING TO RESULT IN SIMILAR DEPARTURES ABOVE NORMAL.
SWRLY SFC WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 12-15KTS WITH GUSTS OVER 20 KTS BY
LATE FRIDAY MORNING. THE STRONGEST WIND GUSTS WILL LIKELY OCCUR
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU. LLVL WSWRLY
JET MAX OF 50-55KTS WILL CROSS THE REGION FRI AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
WIND GUSTS ON THE RIDGES COULD BE OVER 35 MPH IF THE ENVIRONMENT
STAYS WELL MIXED DUE TO AREAS OF CLOUD COVER. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED
TO FOCUS ON THIS WIND GUST POTENTIAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE COMMONWEALTH SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A
GLANCING BLOW OF A RELATIVELY SHALLOW/DRY COLD AIRMASS PRODUCING
NOTHING MORE THAN MAINLY FLURRIES WITH SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NW MTNS. PERHAPS A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL
OCCUR ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS NEAR AND JUST IN THE WAKE OF THE
CFROPA.
MAX TEMPS SATURDAY WILL STILL BE UNSEASONABLY MILD IN MOST
LOCATIONS...RANGING FROM AROUND 40F /DURING THE LATE MORNING ACROSS
THE NWN ZONES/...TO A BALMY 50F IN THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
THE CORE OF THE COLDER AIRMASS DRIFTS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY...WITH OCNL FLURRIES THROUGHOUT THE
CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION...AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS GIVING
A LIGHT COASTING TO SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN PART OF
THE STATE.
PARTIAL CLEARING SKIES /OR BETTER/ WILL TAKE PLACE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND TEMPS IN THE
925-850 MB LAYER WARM BY AT LEAST SEVERAL DEG C.
DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF CIRRUS SUNDAY NIGHT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE
STRETCHED ACROSS THE STATE COULD LEAD TO COLDER AND SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL MIN TEMPS IN THE MID TEENS NORTH...TO TO MID 20S ACROSS THE
LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
CONFLUENT...ZONAL UPPER FLOW AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA
WILL START THE NEW WEEK WITH MAX TEMPS MONDAY SEVERAL...TO AS MUCH
AS 10F ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE MTNS.
THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK NRN STREAM TROUGH WILL LIKELY ONLY HAVE THE
EFFECT OF INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND A WESTERLY BREEZE ON
TUESDAY.
ALL EYES THEN WILL FOCUS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR A FAIRLY MOISTURE
LADEN STORM HEADING OUR WAY FROM THE DEEP SOUTH WED INTO EARLY
THURSDAY. ATTM LLVL TEMP/THICKNESS PROFILES VIA THE GFS...GEFS AND
EC INDICATE MAINLY RAIN ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE STATE...AND FOR
THE FIRST HALF OF THE STORM ACRS THE NW PART OF PENN.
A BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR LOOKS IN STORE FOR LATER NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CLOUD BASES ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE WILL CONTINUE
TO LOWER AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES ITS PROGRESS TO THE EAST COAST.
BROAD LIFT AND WEAK UPSLOPE MAY CONTRIBUTE TO LGT SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES OVR WRN MTNS...WITH MVFR AND LCL IFR CONDS LKLY DEVELOPING
AT BFD/JST. WITH MVFR CIGS AT AOO AND UNV. LACK OF MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT SHOULD LIMIT ANY IFR CONDITIONS THOUGH
THEY REMAIN A POSSIBILITY. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN MVFR. ANY -SHSN
WILL TAPER OFF EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY PERSIST
OVR THE WRN MTNS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDS EAST
OF THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU DUE TO DOWNSLOPE WINDS WHICH WILL BE GUSTY
BEHIND THE FRONT. A WEAK TROF BEING DRIVEN BY THE JEST STREAM WILL
MOVE THROUGH BY MIDDAY THURSDAY BRINGING A STRONG TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT...AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL FLOW. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR GUSTY
WINDS TO ADVECT TO THE SURFACE THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY. WIND SHEAR IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOWER HALF OF CENTRAL PA FROM 06 TO 12Z
FRIDAY.
OUTLOOK...
THU-SUN...MVFR WEST/VFR EAST.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...CERU
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN
AVIATION...CERU/GARTNER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
531 AM EST THU JAN 5 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS
THE STATE THIS MORNING. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH
THE COMMONWEALTH TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A POTENT CLIPPER SYSTEM
TRACKING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND ADJACENT SOUTHEASTERN
CANADA. THIS SYSTEM WILL DRAW UNSEASONABLY MILD AIR INTO THE REGION
ACCOMPANIED BY BREEZY WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH DAYTIME HIGHS
AVERAGING WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS ON FRIDAY. THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS MAINLY DRY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
IR AND WATER VAPOR SHOWS A DISTINCT LINE OF CLOUDS AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT WHICH IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL PA. THIS IS AHEAD OF
A 500 MB TROUGH ACCORDING TO THE RUC WHICH WILL CONTINUE ITS
EASTWARD MOVEMENT. LOW STRATOCU WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE...ESPECIALLY THE NW MTNS AND THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS. BY THURSDAY MORNING EXPECT THE DOWNSLOPE EFFECT TO BEGIN
WITH CLOUDY SKIES BEGINNING TO CLEAR. LACK OF MOISTURE WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL REDUCE...IF NOT ELIMINATE ANY CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION. A WIND SHIFT TO THE WNW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DRAW
SOME MOISTURE OFF OF LK ERIE...RESULTING IN SCT -SHSN/FLURRIES ALONG
THE ALLEGHENY MTNS. INVERSION HGTS WILL REMAIN LOW /MAINLY ARND 5KFT
PER MDL SOUNDINGS/...SO EXPECT ANY ACCUMS TO BE LIMITED TO A
DUSTING. HAVE BROUGHT UP TEMPS AS THE LOW STRATO CU WILL LESSEN ANY
CHANCE FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP SIGNIFICANTLY TOWARDS MORNING. AS
STATED...EXPECT THE LOW STRATOCU TO BEGIN TO LIFT AS THE DAY
CONTINUES AND A WEAK RIDGE BEGINS TO CAUSE WARM AIR ADVECTION
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. THE ECMWF AND GFS TEMPS AT 850 MB TEMPS DIFFER
GREATLY. DOWNSLOPING WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY CAUSED BY A
PASSING JET STREAM...AND A DECENT 850MB GRADIENT WILL FILTER TO THE
SFC...DUE TO A WEAK INVERSION AND MIXING UP TO 1 TO 3KFT. GUSTY
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL FADE BY EARLY EVENING. ANY CLOUDS LEFT
WILL DRY AS THE EVENING CONTINUES WITH CLEARING SKIES BY FRIDAY
MORNING...THROUGH DUE TO THE PASSING OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
LOW ALONG THE US AND CANADIAN BORDER THE CLOUDS ALONG THE PA AND NY
BORDER WILL REMAIN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ZONAL FLOW OF ESSENTIALLY A PACIFIC/MODIFIED CP AIRMASS WILL AFFECT
OUR LOCAL WEATHER THIS PERIOD AS A RATHER VIGOROUS SFC LOW MOVES ESE
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND SRN ONTARIO.
DRY...MILD CONDITIONS WITH VARYING AMOUNTS OF STRATO AND ALTO CU
WILL OCCUR WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE CLOUD COVER FOCUSED ACROSS THE
NRN AND WRN MTNS...WHERE WEST-SWRLY ISENTROPIC/OROGRAPHIC LIFT WILL
BE MAXIMIZED.
MAX TEMPS FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S ACROSS THE NRN
MTNS...AND 45 TO 50F ELSEWHERE WILL BE 10-12F ABOVE NORMAL IN THE
VALLEYS...AND AS MUCH AS 15-18F ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.
MIN TEMPS NEAR DAYBREAK SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID
30S...CONTINUING TO RESULT IN SIMILAR DEPARTURES ABOVE NORMAL.
SWRLY SFC WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 12-15KTS WITH GUSTS OVER 20 KTS BY
LATE FRIDAY MORNING. THE STRONGEST WIND GUSTS WILL LIKELY OCCUR
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU. LLVL WSWRLY
JET MAX OF 50-55KTS WILL CROSS THE REGION FRI AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
WIND GUSTS ON THE RIDGES COULD BE OVER 35 MPH IF THE ENVIRONMENT
STAYS WELL MIXED DUE TO AREAS OF CLOUD COVER. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED
TO FOCUS ON THIS WIND GUST POTENTIAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE COMMONWEALTH SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A
GLANCING BLOW OF A RELATIVELY SHALLOW/DRY COLD AIRMASS PRODUCING
NOTHING MORE THAN MAINLY FLURRIES WITH SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NW MTNS. PERHAPS A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL
OCCUR ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS NEAR AND JUST IN THE WAKE OF THE
CFROPA.
MAX TEMPS SATURDAY WILL STILL BE UNSEASONABLY MILD IN MOST
LOCATIONS...RANGING FROM AROUND 40F /DURING THE LATE MORNING ACROSS
THE NWN ZONES/...TO A BALMY 50F IN THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
THE CORE OF THE COLDER AIRMASS DRIFTS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY...WITH OCNL FLURRIES THROUGHOUT THE
CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION...AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS GIVING
A LIGHT COASTING TO SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN PART OF
THE STATE.
PARTIAL CLEARING SKIES /OR BETTER/ WILL TAKE PLACE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND TEMPS IN THE
925-850 MB LAYER WARM BY AT LEAST SEVERAL DEG C.
DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF CIRRUS SUNDAY NIGHT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE
STRETCHED ACROSS THE STATE COULD LEAD TO COLDER AND SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL MIN TEMPS IN THE MID TEENS NORTH...TO TO MID 20S ACROSS THE
LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
CONFLUENT...ZONAL UPPER FLOW AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA
WILL START THE NEW WEEK WITH MAX TEMPS MONDAY SEVERAL...TO AS MUCH
AS 10F ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE MTNS.
THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK NRN STREAM TROUGH WILL LIKELY ONLY HAVE THE
EFFECT OF INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND A WESTERLY BREEZE ON
TUESDAY.
ALL EYES THEN WILL FOCUS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR A FAIRLY MOISTURE
LADEN STORM HEADING OUR WAY FROM THE DEEP SOUTH WED INTO EARLY
THURSDAY. ATTM LLVL TEMP/THICKNESS PROFILES VIA THE GFS...GEFS AND
EC INDICATE MAINLY RAIN ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE STATE...AND FOR
THE FIRST HALF OF THE STORM ACRS THE NW PART OF PENN.
A BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR LOOKS IN STORE FOR LATER NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CLOUD BASES ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE WILL CONTINUE
TO LOWER AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES ITS PROGRESS TO THE EAST COAST.
BROAD LIFT AND WEAK UPSLOPE MAY CONTRIBUTE TO LGT SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES OVR WRN MTNS...WITH MVFR AND LCL IFR CONDS LKLY DEVELOPING
AT BFD/JST. WITH MVFR CIGS AT AOO AND UNV. LACK OF MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT SHOULD LIMIT ANY IFR CONDITIONS THOUGH
THEY REMAIN A POSSIBILITY. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN MVFR. ANY -SHSN
WILL TAPER OFF EARLY THUR MORNING. LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY PERSIST
OVR THE WRN MTNS DURING THE DAY THURS. EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDS EAST
OF THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU DUE TO DOWNSLOPE WINDS WHICH WILL BE GUSTY
BEHIND THE FRONT. A WEAK TROF BEING DRIVEN BY THE JEST STREAM WILL
MOVE THROUGH BY MIDDAY THURSDAY BRINGING A STRONG TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT...AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL FLOW. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR GUSTY
WINDS TO ADVECT TO THE SURFACE THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY. WIND SHEAR IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOWER HALF OF CENTRAL PA FROM 00Z TO 06Z FRIDAY.
HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW SO HAVE LEFT IT OUT OF THE TAFS.
OUTLOOK...
THU-SUN...MVFR WEST/VFR EAST.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...CERU
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT
AVIATION...CERU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
457 AM EST THU JAN 5 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EASTWARD
ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE COMMONWEALTH TOMORROW NIGHT IN
ADVANCE OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CANADA.
THIS SYSTEM WILL DRAW UNSEASONABLY MILD AIR INTO THE REGION BEHIND
BREEZY WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH LATE WEEK WITH DAYTIME HIGHS
AVERAGING WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS ON FRIDAY. THE WEEKEND LOOKS
SEASONABLY COLD AND MAINLY DRY WITH MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER
POSSIBLE INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
IR AND WATER VAPOR SHOWS A DISTINCT LINE OF CLOUDS AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT WHICH IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL PA. THIS IS AHEAD OF
A 500 MB TROUGH ACCORDING TO THE RUC WHICH WILL CONTINUE ITS
EASTWARD MOVEMENT. LOW STRATOCU WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE...ESPECIALLY THE NW MTNS AND THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS. BY THURSDAY MORNING EXPECT THE DOWNSLOPE EFFECT TO BEGIN
WITH CLOUDY SKIES BEGINNING TO CLEAR. LACK OF MOISTURE WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL REDUCE...IF NOT ELIMINATE ANY CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION. A WIND SHIFT TO THE WNW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DRAW
SOME MOISTURE OFF OF LK ERIE...RESULTING IN SCT -SHSN/FLURRIES ALONG
THE ALLEGHENY MTNS. INVERSION HGTS WILL REMAIN LOW /MAINLY ARND 5KFT
PER MDL SOUNDINGS/...SO EXPECT ANY ACCUMS TO BE LIMITED TO A
DUSTING. HAVE BROUGHT UP TEMPS AS THE LOW STRATO CU WILL LESSEN ANY
CHANCE FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP SIGNIFICANTLY TOWARDS MORNING. AS
STATED...EXPECT THE LOW STRATOCU TO BEGIN TO LIFT AS THE DAY
CONTINUES AND A WEAK RIDGE BEGINS TO CAUSE WARM AIR ADVECTION
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. THE ECMWF AND GFS TEMPS AT 850 MB TEMPS DIFFER
GREATLY. DOWNSLOPING WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY CAUSED BY A
PASSING JET STREAM...AND A DECENT 850MB GRADIENT WILL FILTER TO THE
SFC...DUE TO A WEAK INVERSION AND MIXING UP TO 1 TO 3KFT. GUSTY
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL FADE BY EARLY EVENING. ANY CLOUDS LEFT
WILL DRY AS THE EVENING CONTINUES WITH CLEARING SKIES BY FRIDAY
MORNING...THROUGH DUE TO THE PASSING OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
LOW ALONG THE US AND CANADIAN BORDER THE CLOUDS ALONG THE PA AND NY
BORDER WILL REMAIN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ZONAL FLOW OF ESSENTIALLY A PACIFIC/MODIFIED CP AIRMASS WILL AFFECT
OUR LOCAL WEATHER THIS PERIOD AS A RATHER VIGOROUS SFC LOW MOVES ESE
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND SRN ONTARIO.
DRY...MILD CONDITIONS WITH VARYING AMOUNTS OF STRATO AND ALTO CU
WILL OCCUR WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE CLOUD COVER FOCUSED ACROSS THE
NRN AND WRN MTNS...WHERE WEST-SWRLY ISENTROPIC/OROGRAPHIC LIFT WILL
BE MAXIMIZED.
MAX TEMPS FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S ACROSS THE NRN
MTNS...AND 45 TO 50F ELSEWHERE WILL BE 10-12F ABOVE NORMAL IN THE
VALLEYS...AND AS MUCH AS 15-18F ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.
MIN TEMPS NEAR DAYBREAK SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID
30S...CONTINUING TO RESULT IN SIMILAR DEPARTURES ABOVE NORMAL.
SWRLY SFC WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 12-15KTS WITH GUSTS OVER 20 KTS BY
LATE FRIDAY MORNING. THE STRONGEST WIND GUSTS WILL LIKELY OCCUR
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU. LLVL WSWRLY
JET MAX OF 50-55KTS WILL CROSS THE REGION FRI AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
WIND GUSTS ON THE RIDGES COULD BE OVER 35 MPH IF THE ENVIRONMENT
STAYS WELL MIXED DUE TO AREAS OF CLOUD COVER. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED
TO FOCUS ON THIS WIND GUST POTENTIAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE COMMONWEALTH SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A
GLANCING BLOW OF A RELATIVELY SHALLOW/DRY COLD AIRMASS PRODUCING
NOTHING MORE THAN MAINLY FLURRIES WITH SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NW MTNS. PERHAPS A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL
OCCUR ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS NEAR AND JUST IN THE WAKE OF THE
CFROPA.
MAX TEMPS SATURDAY WILL STILL BE UNSEASONABLY MILD IN MOST
LOCATIONS...RANGING FROM AROUND 40F /DURING THE LATE MORNING ACROSS
THE NWN ZONES/...TO A BALMY 50F IN THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
THE CORE OF THE COLDER AIRMASS DRIFTS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY...WITH OCNL FLURRIES THROUGHOUT THE
CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION...AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS GIVING
A LIGHT COASTING TO SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN PART OF
THE STATE.
PARTIAL CLEARING SKIES /OR BETTER/ WILL TAKE PLACE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND TEMPS IN THE
925-850 MB LAYER WARM BY AT LEAST SEVERAL DEG C.
DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF CIRRUS SUNDAY NIGHT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE
STRETCHED ACROSS THE STATE COULD LEAD TO COLDER AND SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL MIN TEMPS IN THE MID TEENS NORTH...TO TO MID 20S ACROSS THE
LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
CONFLUENT...ZONAL UPPER FLOW AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA
WILL START THE NEW WEEK WITH MAX TEMPS MONDAY SEVERAL...TO AS MUCH
AS 10F ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE MTNS.
THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK NRN STREAM TROUGH WILL LIKELY ONLY HAVE THE
EFFECT OF INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND A WESTERLY BREEZE ON
TUESDAY.
ALL EYES THEN WILL FOCUS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR A FAIRLY MOISTURE
LADEN STORM HEADING OUR WAY FROM THE DEEP SOUTH WED INTO EARLY
THURSDAY. ATTM LLVL TEMP/THICKNESS PROFILES VIA THE GFS...GEFS AND
EC INDICATE MAINLY RAIN ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE STATE...AND FOR
THE FIRST HALF OF THE STORM ACRS THE NW PART OF PENN.
A BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR LOOKS IN STORE FOR LATER NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CLOUD BASES ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE WILL CONTINUE
TO LOWER AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES ITS PROGRESS TO THE EAST COAST.
BROAD LIFT AND WEAK UPSLOPE MAY CONTRIBUTE TO LGT SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES OVR WRN MTNS...WITH MVFR AND LCL IFR CONDS LKLY DEVELOPING
AT BFD/JST. WITH MVFR CIGS AT AOO AND UNV. LACK OF MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT SHOULD LIMIT ANY IFR CONDITIONS THOUGH
THEY REMAIN A POSSIBILITY. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN MVFR. ANY -SHSN
WILL TAPER OFF EARLY THUR MORNING. LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY PERSIST
OVR THE WRN MTNS DURING THE DAY THURS. EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDS EAST
OF THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU DUE TO DOWNSLOPE WINDS WHICH WILL BE GUSTY
BEHIND THE FRONT. A WEAK TROF BEING DRIVEN BY THE JEST STREAM WILL
MOVE THROUGH BY MIDDAY THURSDAY BRINGING A STRONG TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT...AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL FLOW. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR GUSTY
WINDS TO ADVECT TO THE SURFACE THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY. WIND SHEAR IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOWER HALF OF CENTRAL PA FROM 00Z TO 06Z FRIDAY.
HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW SO HAVE LEFT IT OUT OF THE TAFS.
OUTLOOK...
THU-SUN...MVFR WEST/VFR EAST.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...CERU
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN
AVIATION...CERU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ABERDEEN SD
511 AM CST THU JAN 5 2012
.UPDATE...
UPDATE TO AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY
THE FORECAST CHALLENGE CENTERS ON TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.
CURRENTLY...TEMPERATURES ARE MAINLY IN THE 20S AND 30S AS
SCATTERED CIRRUS CLOUDS SPILL INTO THE CWA FROM THE NORTHWEST.
VERY WARM AIR JUST OFF THE SURFACE...PER RUC 925HPA THERMAL PROGS
SHOWING +9C TO +18C AIR OVERHEAD.
CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BE AROUND TODAY. HOWEVER...NOT SO
CONCERNED WITH THEIR INHIBITING RECORD OR NEAR RECORD WARMTH FROM
OCCURRING TODAY. PER PNSABR PRODUCT...COULD BE SETTING SOME
ALL-TIME RECORD HIGHS FOR THE MONTH OF JANUARY TODAY AS WELL. STAY
TUNED.
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MAINLY
TONIGHT...WITH SOMEWHAT STRONGER NWRLY SFC WINDS DEVELOPING LATE
TONIGHT AND DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY WHEN LOW LEVEL WEAK CAA WILL
BE OCCURRING. BREEZY TO WINDY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE COVERED IN THE
WIND GRIDS.
SO...WITH A DRY FORECAST PERSISTING THROUGH THE SHORT
RANGE...TODAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST OF THE NEXT THREE
DAYS...WITH NOTABLY COOLER /BUT STILL ABOVE CLIMO NORMAL/
CONDITIONS SETTING UP FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
DECENT AGREEMENT EXISTS WITH LONGWAVE PATTERN THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK...WITH SOME SPREAD IN HANDLING OF A MODEST ARCTIC
BLAST FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. BUT BEFORE THE BOTTOM
DROPS OUT ON OUR MILD JANUARY...WILL SEE DECENT WARM ADVECTION AND
EFFICIENT MIXING FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. H85 TEMPERATURES TOP
6C...A STANDARD DEVIATION ABOVE CLIMO. AS OF YET...NO PRECIP WITH
THIS PATTERN SO WITH DRY GROUND...MAX TEMPERATURES COULD MAKE A RUN
AT RECORDS AGAIN THOSE DAYS. A RATHER COMPACT...STRONG WAVE WILL
MOVE ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY PM...THOUGH PRECIPITATION SHOULD
REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION. MORE IMPORTANTLY...COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM BRINGS AN ARCTIC AIRMASS INTO
THE NORTHERN CONUS. MAIN ISSUE THIS LATE IN THE PERIOD IS THE
TEMPERATURES IN THE CORE OF COLDEST AIR...AND THE STEERING FLOW
FOR THE AIRMASS...WHICH WILL DETERMINE IN LATER FORECASTS THE
DURATION OF THIS COLD SNAP.
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. WIND WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 10-15KTS OUT OF
THE WEST/NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DORN
LONG TERM...CONNELLY
AVIATION...CONNELLY
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
1141 AM EST THU JAN 5 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY, SEASONABLE CONDITIONS INTO
FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MADE SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURE, CLOUDS AND WIND BASED ON
BLEND OF RECENT SURFACE AND SATELLITE DATA AND HRRR AND NAM MODEL
OUTPUT.
CONTINUE TO EXPECT STRATUS BANK TO THIN OR ERODE, WEST TO EAST
THIS AFTERNOON. THERE ARE HIGH CLOUDS ABOVE, BUT THESE SHOULD SOME
SUNSHINE DESPITE CONTINUED MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH NEAR NORMAL VALUES,
DESPITE REDUCED SUNSHINE EFFECTS OVER LINGERING SNOW PACK. LOWS
TONIGHT CAN BE WARMER THAN NORMAL DUE TO REDUCED RADIATIONAL
EFFECTS OF CLOUDS AND WIND, AND SOME WARMING ALOFT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FRIDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY AS THE UPPER FLOW FLATTENS AND A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS EASTWARD JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER WELL INTO 40S FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
A COLD FRONT WILL CREEP SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY
SATURDAY, WHICH MAY PRODUCE LIGHT SHOWERS DESPITE MEAGER MOISTURE
INFLUX. SO FAR HAVE MAINTAINED DRY FORECAST, BUT MORE RECENT NAM
AND SREF MODEL OUTPUT SUGGEST A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS, WHICH WILL
BE MORE FULLY EVALUATED WITH AFTERNOON UPDATE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL ON SATURDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RECENT HP GUIDANCE SHOWED PREFERENCE TOWARD BLEND OF RECENT EMF
AND GS ENSEMBLE/EC ENS AND GE`S/MODEL OUTPUT. THESE MODELS SHOWED
THE ZONAL NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE UPPER LEVEL POLAR JET STREAM HAVING
MORE INFLUENCE ON THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY THIS PERIOD, AS A SOUTHWEST
U.S. CUTOFF LOW MAY DEVELOP IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH. SO EXPECT
MODERATE TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT BOUTS OF PRECIPITATION THIS PERIOD.
FORE CASTED TEMPERATURES THIS PERIOD TO BE 4-8 DEGREES WARMER THAN
NORMAL, AS SUPPORTED BY BLEND OF RECENT GS MOS AND NAIFS MEDIAN
VALUES.
CURRENT MODEL DATA IS SHOWING VERY LITTLE CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WILL TAKE THIS WITH A
GRAIN OF SALT, AS THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE HAD DIFFICULTY
HANDLING SUCH A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN.
NAIFS AND EMF MODEL OUTPUT THEN SUGGEST THE JET STREAM PATTERN
BUCKLING LATE WEEK. THE RESULTING WEST COAST RIDGING AND GREAT
LAKES DRUGGING COULD LEAD TO COLDER TEMPERATURES BY THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PER RECENT SURFACE AND SATELLITE DATA, EXPECT CONTINUED SLOW
BREAK UP OF MVFR STRATUS, WEST TO EAST, THIS AFTERNOON. VFR ALTOCUMULUS
AND CIRRUS WILL REMAIN TONIGHT. ITS STILL POSSIBLE THAT MVFR
STRATUS CAN REDEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AS NAM MODEL PROFILES SHOW A
MOIST, INVERSION-CAPPED SURFACE LAYER REMAINING. IF SUCH CLOUDS
DEVELOP, THEY SHOULD LIFT TO VFR LEVELS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST, WITH SOME GUSTS TO NEAR
20 KTS INTO EVENING.
OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE MAY PROVIDE SHOWERS AND RESTRICTIONS LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1228 PM EST THU JAN 5 2012
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAFS
.SYNOPSIS...
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW NW FLOW ALF OVER
THE GRT LKS BTWN RDG OVER THE ROCKIES AND TROFFING IN THE E. MASS OF
LO CLD ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWV DIGGING SEWD THRU LWR MI LINGERS OVER
THE E HALF OF THE CWA TOWARD LLVL THERMAL TROF TO THE E...BUT
MARGINAL CHILL OF AIRMASS PER 00Z APX RAOB SHOWING INVRN BASE TEMP
OF -8C JUST BLO H85 IS TOO WARM TO SUPPORT LES. MORE SCT CLDS ARE
EVIDENT OVER THE WRN CWA. TO THE NW...HI PRES IS BLDG THRU NW
ONTARIO TOWARD THE CWA BEHIND COLD FNT MOVING SEWD ACRS ONTARIO AND
UNDER 12Z-24Z H3 RISES UP TO 100M OBSVD OVER SCNTRL CAN IN ADVANCE
OF ROCKIES RDG. BUT THERE IS PLENTY OF MID/HI CLD STRETCHING FM
SCNTRL CAN INTO NRN MN ASSOCIATED WITH WAD OVER A SHARP H85 WARM FNT
IN SCNTRL CAN THAT IS CONTRIBUTING TO THE HGT RISES. VERY WARM AIR
IS EVIDENT OVER THE HI PLAINS...WITH 00Z H85 TEMP AS HI AS 12C AT
GLASGOW MT. WELL UPSTREAM...A STRONGER SHRTWV IS MOVING ONSHORE OVER
THE PAC NW.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
EVEN THOUGH THE PASSAGE OF A SERIES OF SHRTWVS WL MAINTAIN A NW FLOW
ALF THRU THIS WEEKEND...A FAIRLY BENIGN WX PATTERN FOR JAN WL
PREVAIL WITH RELATIVELY MILD MARITIME POLAR PACIFIC AIRMASSES
DOMINATING.
TDAY...THE SFC HI BLDG THRU ONTARIO IS FCST TO SLIDE STEADILY TO THE
SE AND INTO FAR SW QUEBEC BY LATE AFTN. AS SHRTWV NOW MOVING ONSHORE
IN THE PAC NW FLATTENS THE ROCKIES RDG AND MOVES TO NEAR LK WINNIPEG
BY 00Z FRI...A SFC LO ORGANIZING OVER NRN ALBERTA THIS MRNG WILL
FOLLOW TO THAT AREA LATE IN THE DAY. ALTHOUGH THE LLVL NNE FLOW ON
THE SW FLANK OF THE HI PASSING TO THE NE WL MAINTAIN LO CLD AND
POSSIBLY SOME FLURRIES ESPECIALLY OVER THE NE HALF OF THE FA...
STEADILY VEERING FLOW TO THE S LATER IN THE DAY AHEAD OF INCOMING
WARM FNT ATTENDANT TO THE LK WINNIPEG LO SHOULD CAUSE THIS CLD TO
RETREAT. HOWEVER...THE GFS FCST H95-9 RH HINTS THIS CLD MAY BE MORE
RESILIENT. SFC OBS FM NW ONTARIO/ADJOINING MANITOBA SUPPORT THIS
MORE PESSIMISTIC FCST. SINCE THE DEEPER MSTR/MOST VIGOROUS DEEP LYR
QVECTOR CNVGC ASSOCIATED WITH THE ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS PROGGED TO
STAY TO THE NE...THE SYNOPTIC PCPN SHOULD HOLD MAINLY OVER THE NE
HALF OF LK SUP. EXPECT THE WARMEST DAYTIME TEMPS TO BE OVER THE FAR
W...WHERE MODEL FCST H100-85 THKNS IS FCST TO REACH NEAR 1320M AT
IWD WITH DOWNSLOPING SSW WIND. UPSTREAM HI TEMPS YDAY IN THE NRN
PLAINS FOR SIMILAR THKNS WERE ARND 40. GOING FCST HI TEMPS APPEAR ON
TRACK AND NEED LTL ADJUSTMENT.
TNGT...SHRTWV/SFC LO NEAR LK WINNIPEG IS PROGGED TO MOVE EWD AND TO
OVER ONTARIO JUST N OF LK SUP BY 12Z FRI. AS THE WARM FNT ADVANCES
WITH THE RETREAT OF COLD AIR TO THE E...EXPECT ANY LINGERING LO CHC
POPS OVER THE NE CWA IN THE EVNG TO PUSH INTO SE ONTARIO AND GIVE
WAY TO A PERIOD OF CLR-PCLDY SKIES WITH THE ARRIVAL OF WARMER/DRIER
AIR. COMBINATION OF STEADY WLY FLOW WITH H925 WINDS AS HI AS
30-40KTS UNDER SHARP PRES GRADIENT TO THE S OF LO CENTER AND INFLUX
OF MILD PACIFIC AIR WITH H100-85 THKNS HOLDING FM 1300 TO 1320M THRU
THE NGT INDICATES MIN TEMPS WL BE WELL ABV NORMAL. TENDED TOWARD THE
HIER END OF GUIDANCE FOR THIS FCST.
FRI...SHRTWV TRACKING ACRS ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC IS FCST TO DEEPEN UPR
TROF OVER THE GRT LKS. WITH SHARPENING CYC FLOW OF COLDER AND
MOISTER AIR UNDER THE FALLING HGTS...EXPECT QUITE A BIT OF LO CLD TO
DVLP...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS DOWNWIND OF THE LK IN SLOWLY VEERING FLOW
TO NW. ALTHOUGH THE AIRMASS IS INITIALLY TOO WARM FOR LES WITH H85
TEMPS AT 12Z FRI NO LOWER THAN -3/-4C...THESE TEMPS ARE FCST TO SINK
AS LO AS -9C OR SO BY LATE IN THE DAY OVER THE KEWEENAW. MODEL FCST
SDNGS INDICATE DEEPER MSTR WL ALSO REACH THE DGZ IN THE AFTN AT
LEAST OVER THE W...SO WENT WITH CHC POPS FOR LES THEN. BUT LACK OF
FCST OMEGA WITHIN THE DGZ SUGS ANY SN WL BE ON THE LGT SIDE.
CONSIDERED ADDING FZDZ OVER THE KEWEENAW IN THE MRNG IN AREAS WHERE
TEMPS ARE AOB 32...BUT STRONG WINDS THAT WL ENHANCE MIXING/MORE
INVERTED V SDNGS AS WELL AS INITIALLY HIER SFC DEWPT DEPRESSIONS PER
MOS GUIDANCE SUG THE BEST STRATEGY IS TO KEEP THIS OUT OF FCST ATTM.
THE HIEST MAX TEMPS WL OCCUR OVER THE SCNTRL WHERE STRONG WNW FLOW
DOWNSLOPES AND COLDER AIR IS LATER TO ARRIVE. TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO
FALL IN THE AFTN AS THE COLDER AIR MAKES MORE PROGRESS INTO THE CWA.
FRI NGT...WITH LINGERNING LLVL CYC NW FLOW AND H85 THERMAL TROF/
TEMPS SINKING TO ARND -12C...EXPECT LES CHANCES/PLENTY OF LO CLD TO
PERSIST. BUMPED GOING POPS UP TO HI CHC TO ACCOUNT FOR
CLIMATOLICALLY FAVORABLE PATTERN WITH MARGINAL THERMAL INSTABILITY
(LK WATER TEMPS ARND 3C). GIVEN THE CLD COVER AND STEADY NW FLOW
THRU THE NGT...EXPECT TEMPS TO BE WELL ABV NORMAL AND ON THE HI SIDE
OF GUIDANCE.
SAT/SAT NGT...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES...MODEL GUIDANCE
HINTS AT THE ARRIVAL OF ANOTHER SHRTWV DURING THIS TIME...WITH
SHARPENING OF LK ENHANCED TROFFING OVER THE NRN TIER. SO MAINTAINED
HI CHC POPS ON SAT WITH SOMEWHAT LOWER VALUES ON SAT NGT GIVEN TREND
TOWARD HGT RISES/WEAKENING TROF/DRYING ALF LATER SAT INTO SUN. TEMPS
WL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.
EXTENDED PERIOD...GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR WARMER
AIRMASS TO SLOWLY SEEP INTO THE UPR LKS BY TUE UNDER BLDG RDG...SO
TENDED TO RAISE ALLBLEND TEMPS A DEGREE OR 2 TO ACCOUNT FOR
CONFIDENCE IN THE ARRIVAL OF THIS WARMER PACIFIC AIR. RETURN TO
COLDER AIR AND SN STILL POSSIBLE FOR NEXT WED WITH 00Z ECMWF/GFS
SHOWING A DEEPENING TROF.
&&
.AVIATION /FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
THE MAIN STORY WITH THIS TAF ISSUANCE WILL BE STRENGTHENING WINDS
FROM MID EVENING ON. WHILE THE WINDS SHOULD PICK UP AND BE GUSTY AT
THE SFC AT IWD AND CMX...LLWS IS EXPECTED AT SAW. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING...WITH INCREASED
DEEP MOISTURE AND SNOW MOVING IN FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE /FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE FROM EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR TO
SOUTHWESTERN QUEBEC TODAY...AS LOW PRESSURE NEARS FROM CENTRAL
SASKATCHEWAN. THIS WILL RESULT IN WINDS NEARING GALES...WITH MAINLY
GALE FORCE GUSTS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY NEAR THE SOUTHERN
SHORELINES OF LS. EXPECT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO DEEPEN TO
NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR FRIDAY MORNING...BEFORE FILLING SLIGHTLY OVER
SOUTHWESTERN QUEBEC FRIDAY NIGHT. A WEAK LOW WILL CROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT...AHEAD OF RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FOR
SUNDAY. PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL DIMINISH FROM
MONDAY MORNING TO DAYBREAK TUESDAY...AS A LOW ORGANIZES OVER CENTRAL
CANADA.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KC
DISCUSSION...KC
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
209 PM EST THU JAN 5 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR TODAY INTO TONIGHT
MOSTLY IN THE SYRACUSE AND ROME AREAS OF NEW YORK. A WARM FRONT
WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY AND BRING MILDER AIR FOR
FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATED AT 1 PM... LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO BE QUITE
WIDESPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL NY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER WE HAVE
RECEIVED NO REPORTS OF ANY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS SINCE THIS
MORNING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE INVERSION HEIGHTS REMAIN
AROUND 5 KFT THIS AFTERNOON WITH 290-300 DEGREE FLOW AND 850 MB
TEMPERATURES AROUND -12 C. LOCAL ANALOGS INDICATE CONTINUED GOOD
COVERAGE OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...
DIMINISHING AFTERWARDS AS THE FLOW BECOMES LIGHTER. FAIRLY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION RATES AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING SHOULD
KEEP ANY ACCUMULATIONS THIS AFTERNOON TO AN INCH OR LESS.
UPDATED AT 10 AM... WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH HAS PASSED EAST ACROSS
THE AREA THIS MORNING. 290 DEGREE FLOW BEHIND THIS WAVE WITH
MARGINALLY COLD AIR AROUND -10 C HAS RESULTED IN SOME LIGHT LAKE
EFFECT SNOW. 12Z BUF SOUNDING CONFIRMS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING
AN INVERSION HTS AROUND 6 KFT WITH FLOW FROM AROUND 290 AND T850
AROUND -9. LOCAL ANALOG PROGRAM INDICATES WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON BUT WITH ANY ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY AN
INCH OR LESS. HRRR MODEL SHOWS WEAKENING SNOW SHOWERS MOVING
SOUTH THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON THEN DISSIPATING. ANOTHER FACTOR
THAT WILL LIMIT ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE MILD
SURFACE TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE FREEZING IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND
SYRACUSE AREAS. BASED ON THIS EXPECT ANY ACCUMULATIONS TO BE AN
INCH OR LESS AND MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN BETWEEN BGM AND SYR.
UPDATED AT 330 AM...
LIGHT FLURRIES AND SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. A WEAK FRONT WILL GO THROUGH TODAY WITH LIMITED MOISTURE.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALL BELOW 10K FT WITH A SHALLOW DENDRITE ZONE
AT THE TOP OF THE CLOUDS. A WESTERLY FLOW IS SHIFTING TO 290 WHICH
SHOULD BRING SOME BETTER SNOW SHOWERS INTO ONEIDA COUNTY NY. STILL
NOT IMPRESSIVE WITH ONLY SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR THAN NOW. INSTABILITY
CONDITIONAL. SNOW AMOUNTS ONLY A INCH OR TWO WITH JUST FLURRIES IN
THE SOUTHERN TIER WHILE AROUND AVP PROBABLY NO SNOW AT ALL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPDATED AT 330 AM...
WEAK SYSTEMS AND MINIMAL QPF AND SNOWFALL. WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.
THE WNW FLOW CONTINUES THIS EVENING BEFORE SHIFTING TO SW WITH A
WARM FRONT. SHEAR WILL INCREASE SO LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL BE WEAK.
MOISTURE WITH THE FRONT ONLY AT MID LEVELS. AGAIN WILL BE TOUGH TO
GET MUCH SNOW ACCUMULATION. ANY SNOW SHOULD BE AGAIN IN NY.
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW OVER THE NW GREAT LAKES. WARM SW FLOW TONIGHT
SO TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INITIALLY THEN LEVEL OFF.
BY FRIDAY MORNING MOST OF THE LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES WILL BE
GONE. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND FLURRIES IN ONEIDA COUNTY NY WITH
A LITTLE LAKE MOISTURE AND WEST LL FLOW. FRIDAY WARMEST DAY OF THE
WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW AND MID 40S WITH SOME SUNSHINE
ESPECIALLY IN NE PA.
MILD DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE APPROACH
OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. THE SFC LOW WILL BE MOVING EAST NEAR
SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY INTO THE MARITIMES FRI TO SAT. THIS FRONT WILL
TAKE ITS TIME CROSSING THE CWA SAT AND SAT NGT. IF THE FRONT IS
LATER TEMPERATURES COULD EASILY BE WARMER THAN THE UPPER 30S AND
L40S FORECASTING NOW. FRI NGT TO SAT IF ANY SHOWERS OCCUR MAY BE
RAIN OR SNOW. SAT NGT ON AGAIN COLD ENOUGH FOR JUST SNOW. FLOW
SHIFTS TO NW WITH CAA AND A SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH. SNOW
SHOWERS AGAIN MAINLY IN CENTRAL NY. NOT IMPRESSIVE WITH 850 AIR
NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR JUST LAKE EFFECT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
2 PM UPDATE...
LONG RANGE GUIDANCE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH UNEVENTFUL
WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN A STORM SYSTEM PRODUCING MOSTLY
RAIN IN THE LATER WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME-FRAME. NOW TO THE DETAILS...
SUNDAY NIGHT...AN H5 TROF WILL KEEP ENOUGH COLD AIR IN THE
NORTHEAST FOR A LIMITED SHOT OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT. 850
TEMPS OF -10C/-12C ARE JUST COLD ENOUGH TO PRODUCE CONDITIONAL
INSTABILITY OVER THE LAKE. FOR OUR AREA THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR
WILL BE THE WINDS WHICH WILL START OUT WESTERLY BUT BACK TOWARD
THE SOUTHWEST BY MONDAY MORNING...SHIFTING ANYTHING WE GET NORTH
OF THE CWA. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EARLY IN THE NIGHT LOOK GOOD BEFORE
THE FLOW BACKS AS MENTIONED ABOVE.
MONDAY/TUESDAY....HIGH PRESSURE OVER OUR AREA MONDAY WILL MOVE OFF
THE COAST LATE IN THE DAY. WAA ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH WILL
PUSH 850 TEMPS ABOVE ZERO TUESDAY. IN RESPONSE TEMPS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S MONDAY MAY TOUCH THE 40 DEGREE MARK BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.
WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...LONG RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
A STORM TRACKING OUT OF THE DEEP SOUTH DURING THIS TIME BUT DO
DIFFER ON THE TRACK A BIT. EITHER WAY WE ARE PLENTY WARM FOR JUST
RAIN AS THE PRECIPITATION STARTS LATER WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. BEYOND THAT WE WILL REMAIN WARM ENOUGH FOR ALMOST ALL RAIN
THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH ANY REAL SHOT OF COLD AIR COMING IN BY
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOWS. ALTHOUGH VERY FAR
OUT...MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW A POLAR VORTEX SETTING UP OVER THE
GREAT LAKES...WHICH WOULD KEEP OUR WINDS OUT OF THE WEST TO
SOUTHWEST...WHICH MAY KEEP MOST OF THE ACTION NORTH AND WEST OF
OUR CWA.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
2 PM UPDATE...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON...MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE NY TERMINALS WITH
VFR CIGS AT KAVP. WITH A COLD NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS WILL IMPACT MAINLY NY TERMINALS OUTSIDE OF KRME. GENERALLY
SPEAKING MVFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE HERE BUT SOME BRIEF IFR IS
POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS AT KITH AND KBGM TOWARD 0Z
THIS EVENING AS THE FLOW BACKS AND WEAKENS A WARM FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE AREA. AS THIS HAPPENS RESTRICTIONS WILL IMPROVE TO
VFR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS BUT MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTH THROUGH 06Z. AFTER 06Z, LOW CLOUDS SHOULD
SCATTER OUT WITH A MID DECK ABOVE DUE TO THE APPROACHING WARM
FRONT.
WITH THE FROPA THIS AFTERNOON WE ARE SEEING A TWO HOUR WINDOW OF
SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 15KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25KTS. EXPECT THIS TO
CONTINUE ACROSS THE NY TERMINALS THROUGH ABOUT 20Z. WINDS WILL BE
OUT OF THE NORTHWEST THROUGH EVENING...BACKING INTO THE SOUTHEAST
TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT.
.OUTLOOK...
FRI AND FRI NGT...MOSTLY VFR. SOME MVFR POSSIBLE AT KRME.
SAT THROUGH TUE...MOSTLY VFR BUT OCNL RESTRICTIONS IN LWR
CIGS/-SHRA/-SHSN...SPCLY NY STATE TERMINALS (KSYR/KRME/KITH/KBGM).
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...MSE/TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...HEDEN
AVIATION...HEDEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
114 PM EST THU JAN 5 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR TODAY INTO TONIGHT
MOSTLY IN THE SYRACUSE AND ROME AREAS OF NEW YORK. A WARM FRONT
WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY AND BRING MILDER AIR FOR
FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATED AT 1 PM... LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO BE QUITE
WIDESPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL NY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER WE HAVE
RECEIVED NO REPORTS OF ANY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS SINCE THIS
MORNING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE INVERSION HEIGHTS REMAIN
AROUND 5 KFT THIS AFTERNOON WITH 290-300 DEGREE FLOW AND 850 MB
TEMPERATURES AROUND -12 C. LOCAL ANALOGS INDICATE CONTINUED GOOD
COVERAGE OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...
DIMINISHING AFTERWARDS AS THE FLOW BECOMES LIGHTER. FAIRLY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION RATES AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING SHOULD
KEEP ANY ACCUMULATIONS THIS AFTERNOON TO AN INCH OR LESS.
UPDATED AT 10 AM... WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH HAS PASSED EAST ACROSS
THE AREA THIS MORNING. 290 DEGREE FLOW BEHIND THIS WAVE WITH
MARGINALLY COLD AIR AROUND -10 C HAS RESULTED IN SOME LIGHT LAKE
EFFECT SNOW. 12Z BUF SOUNDING CONFIRMS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING
AN INVERSION HTS AROUND 6 KFT WITH FLOW FROM AROUND 290 AND T850
AROUND -9. LOCAL ANALOG PROGRAM INDICATES WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON BUT WITH ANY ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY AN
INCH OR LESS. HRRR MODEL SHOWS WEAKENING SNOW SHOWERS MOVING
SOUTH THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON THEN DISSIPATING. ANOTHER FACTOR
THAT WILL LIMIT ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE MILD
SURFACE TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE FREEZING IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND
SYRACUSE AREAS. BASED ON THIS EXPECT ANY ACCUMULATIONS TO BE AN
INCH OR LESS AND MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN BETWEEN BGM AND SYR.
UPDATED AT 330 AM...
LIGHT FLURRIES AND SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. A WEAK FRONT WILL GO THROUGH TODAY WITH LIMITED MOISTURE.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALL BELOW 10K FT WITH A SHALLOW DENDRITE ZONE
AT THE TOP OF THE CLOUDS. A WESTERLY FLOW IS SHIFTING TO 290 WHICH
SHOULD BRING SOME BETTER SNOW SHOWERS INTO ONEIDA COUNTY NY. STILL
NOT IMPRESSIVE WITH ONLY SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR THAN NOW. INSTABILITY
CONDITIONAL. SNOW AMOUNTS ONLY A INCH OR TWO WITH JUST FLURRIES IN
THE SOUTHERN TIER WHILE AROUND AVP PROBABLY NO SNOW AT ALL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPDATED AT 330 AM...
WEAK SYSTEMS AND MINIMAL QPF AND SNOWFALL. WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.
THE WNW FLOW CONTINUES THIS EVENING BEFORE SHIFTING TO SW WITH A
WARM FRONT. SHEAR WILL INCREASE SO LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL BE WEAK.
MOISTURE WITH THE FRONT ONLY AT MID LEVELS. AGAIN WILL BE TOUGH TO
GET MUCH SNOW ACCUMULATION. ANY SNOW SHOULD BE AGAIN IN NY.
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW OVER THE NW GREAT LAKES. WARM SW FLOW TONIGHT
SO TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INITIALLY THEN LEVEL OFF.
BY FRIDAY MORNING MOST OF THE LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES WILL BE
GONE. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND FLURRIES IN ONEIDA COUNTY NY WITH
A LITTLE LAKE MOISTURE AND WEST LL FLOW. FRIDAY WARMEST DAY OF THE
WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW AND MID 40S WITH SOME SUNSHINE
ESPECIALLY IN NE PA.
MILD DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE APPROACH
OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. THE SFC LOW WILL BE MOVING EAST NEAR
SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY INTO THE MARITIMES FRI TO SAT. THIS FRONT WILL
TAKE ITS TIME CROSSING THE CWA SAT AND SAT NGT. IF THE FRONT IS
LATER TEMPERATURES COULD EASILY BE WARMER THAN THE UPPER 30S AND
L40S FORECASTING NOW. FRI NGT TO SAT IF ANY SHOWERS OCCUR MAY BE
RAIN OR SNOW. SAT NGT ON AGAIN COLD ENOUGH FOR JUST SNOW. FLOW
SHIFTS TO NW WITH CAA AND A SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH. SNOW
SHOWERS AGAIN MAINLY IN CENTRAL NY. NOT IMPRESSIVE WITH 850 AIR
NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR JUST LAKE EFFECT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPDATE 230 AM...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO FORECAST AS LATEST SUITE
OF MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND TELLS THE
SAME STORY AS PREVIOUS RUN.
PREVIOUS DISC...
MODELS IN AGREEMENT FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A BROAD TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN US. SOME WEAK SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. THEY WILL TRY TO SET OFF SOME PRECIPITATION
OVER THE CWA. HOWEVER, THIS LOOKS TO BE LIGHT AND CLOSER TO THE
LAKE SHORE, NOT TOO MENTION A GREAT AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY THAT ANY
OF IT WILL BE MEASURABLE. GIVEN THIS, HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHC
POPS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. MAIN THOUGHTS BEHIND THE LOW
POPS AND HIGH UNCERTAINTY ARE THE FACT THAT THE 700MB FLOW IS FROM
THE WEST SOUTH WEST AND THE 850 TEMPS ARE ONLY ABOUT -6C OVER LAKE
ERIE, WHICH IS NOT TOO EXCITING FOR LAKE EFFECT THIS TIME OF YEAR.
THERE DOES LOOK TO BE A WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTER, BUT IT IS VERY
WEAK AND GOES WAY TO THE NORTH, WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
VERY QUICKLY BEHIND IT.
THE ECMWF HAS CHANGED DRAMATICALLY SINCE YESTERDAYS RUNS, WHERE IT
HAD THE NOR`EASTER OVER NEW YORK CITY ON MONDAY. NOW, IT IS IN MUCH
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS AND HAS THE LOW NEAR BERMUDA, WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CWA. GIVEN THIS, AND WARMER TEMPERATURES
NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGHS BEING NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL, HAVE
KEPT THE CWA DRY FROM MONDAY ON.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
2 PM UPDATE...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON...MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE NY TERMINALS WITH
VFR CIGS AT KAVP. WITH A COLD NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS WILL IMPACT MAINLY NY TERMINALS OUTSIDE OF KRME. GENERALLY
SPEAKING MVFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE HERE BUT SOME BRIEF IFR IS
POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS AT KITH AND KBGM TOWARD 0Z
THIS EVENING AS THE FLOW BACKS AND WEAKENS A WARM FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE AREA. AS THIS HAPPENS RESTRICTIONS WILL IMPROVE TO
VFR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS BUT MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTH THROUGH 06Z. AFTER 06Z, LOW CLOUDS SHOULD
SCATTER OUT WITH A MID DECK ABOVE DUE TO THE APPROACHING WARM
FRONT.
WITH THE FROPA THIS AFTERNOON WE ARE SEEING A TWO HOUR WINDOW OF
SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 15KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25KTS. EXPECT THIS TO
CONTINUE ACROSS THE NY TERMINALS THROUGH ABOUT 20Z. WINDS WILL BE
OUT OF THE NORTHWEST THROUGH EVENING...BACKING INTO THE SOUTHEAST
TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT.
.OUTLOOK...
FRI AND FRI NGT...MOSTLY VFR. SOME MVFR POSSIBLE AT KRME.
SAT THROUGH TUE...MOSTLY VFR BUT OCNL RESTRICTIONS IN LWR
CIGS/-SHRA/-SHSN...SPCLY NY STATE TERMINALS (KSYR/KRME/KITH/KBGM).
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...MSE/TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...RRM/SLI
AVIATION...HEDEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
100 PM EST THU JAN 5 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR TODAY INTO TONIGHT
MOSTLY IN THE SYRACUSE AND ROME AREAS OF NEW YORK. A WARM FRONT
WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY AND BRING MILDER AIR FOR
FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATED AT 10 AM... WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH HAS PASSED EAST ACROSS
THE AREA THIS MORNING. 290 DEGREE FLOW BEHIND THIS WAVE WITH
MARGINALLY COLD AIR AROUND -10 C HAS RESULTED IN SOME LIGHT LAKE
EFFECT SNOW. 12Z BUF SOUNDING CONFIRMS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING
AN INVERSION HTS AROUND 6 KFT WITH FLOW FROM AROUND 290 AND T850
AROUND -9. LOCAL ANALOG PROGRAM INDICATES WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON BUT WITH ANY ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY AN
INCH OR LESS. HRRR MODEL SHOWS WEAKENING SNOW SHOWERS MOVING
SOUTH THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON THEN DISSIPATING. ANOTHER FACTOR
THAT WILL LIMIT ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE MILD
SURFACE TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE FREEZING IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND
SYRACUSE AREAS. BASED ON THIS EXPECT ANY ACCUMULATIONS TO BE AN
INCH OR LESS AND MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN BETWEEN BGM AND SYR.
UPDATED AT 330 AM...
LIGHT FLURRIES AND SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. A WEAK FRONT WILL GO THROUGH TODAY WITH LIMITED MOISTURE.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALL BELOW 10K FT WITH A SHALLOW DENDRITE ZONE
AT THE TOP OF THE CLOUDS. A WESTERLY FLOW IS SHIFTING TO 290 WHICH
SHOULD BRING SOME BETTER SNOW SHOWERS INTO ONEIDA COUNTY NY. STILL
NOT IMPRESSIVE WITH ONLY SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR THAN NOW. INSTABILITY
CONDITIONAL. SNOW AMOUNTS ONLY A INCH OR TWO WITH JUST FLURRIES IN
THE SOUTHERN TIER WHILE AROUND AVP PROBABLY NO SNOW AT ALL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPDATED AT 330 AM...
WEAK SYSTEMS AND MINIMAL QPF AND SNOWFALL. WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.
THE WNW FLOW CONTINUES THIS EVENING BEFORE SHIFTING TO SW WITH A
WARM FRONT. SHEAR WILL INCREASE SO LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL BE WEAK.
MOISTURE WITH THE FRONT ONLY AT MID LEVELS. AGAIN WILL BE TOUGH TO
GET MUCH SNOW ACCUMULATION. ANY SNOW SHOULD BE AGAIN IN NY.
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW OVER THE NW GREAT LAKES. WARM SW FLOW TONIGHT
SO TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INITIALLY THEN LEVEL OFF.
BY FRIDAY MORNING MOST OF THE LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES WILL BE
GONE. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND FLURRIES IN ONEIDA COUNTY NY WITH
A LITTLE LAKE MOISTURE AND WEST LL FLOW. FRIDAY WARMEST DAY OF THE
WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW AND MID 40S WITH SOME SUNSHINE
ESPECIALLY IN NE PA.
MILD DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE APPROACH
OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. THE SFC LOW WILL BE MOVING EAST NEAR
SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY INTO THE MARITIMES FRI TO SAT. THIS FRONT WILL
TAKE ITS TIME CROSSING THE CWA SAT AND SAT NGT. IF THE FRONT IS
LATER TEMPERATURES COULD EASILY BE WARMER THAN THE UPPER 30S AND
L40S FORECASTING NOW. FRI NGT TO SAT IF ANY SHOWERS OCCUR MAY BE
RAIN OR SNOW. SAT NGT ON AGAIN COLD ENOUGH FOR JUST SNOW. FLOW
SHIFTS TO NW WITH CAA AND A SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH. SNOW
SHOWERS AGAIN MAINLY IN CENTRAL NY. NOT IMPRESSIVE WITH 850 AIR
NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR JUST LAKE EFFECT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPDATE 230 AM...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO FORECAST AS LATEST SUITE
OF MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND TELLS THE
SAME STORY AS PREVIOUS RUN.
PREVIOUS DISC...
MODELS IN AGREEMENT FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A BROAD TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN US. SOME WEAK SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. THEY WILL TRY TO SET OFF SOME PRECIPITATION
OVER THE CWA. HOWEVER, THIS LOOKS TO BE LIGHT AND CLOSER TO THE
LAKE SHORE, NOT TOO MENTION A GREAT AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY THAT ANY
OF IT WILL BE MEASURABLE. GIVEN THIS, HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHC
POPS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. MAIN THOUGHTS BEHIND THE LOW
POPS AND HIGH UNCERTAINTY ARE THE FACT THAT THE 700MB FLOW IS FROM
THE WEST SOUTH WEST AND THE 850 TEMPS ARE ONLY ABOUT -6C OVER LAKE
ERIE, WHICH IS NOT TOO EXCITING FOR LAKE EFFECT THIS TIME OF YEAR.
THERE DOES LOOK TO BE A WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTER, BUT IT IS VERY
WEAK AND GOES WAY TO THE NORTH, WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
VERY QUICKLY BEHIND IT.
THE ECMWF HAS CHANGED DRAMATICALLY SINCE YESTERDAYS RUNS, WHERE IT
HAD THE NOR`EASTER OVER NEW YORK CITY ON MONDAY. NOW, IT IS IN MUCH
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS AND HAS THE LOW NEAR BERMUDA, WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CWA. GIVEN THIS, AND WARMER TEMPERATURES
NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGHS BEING NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL, HAVE
KEPT THE CWA DRY FROM MONDAY ON.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
2 PM UPDATE...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON...MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE NY TERMINALS WITH
VFR CIGS AT KAVP. WITH A COLD NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS WILL IMPACT MAINLY NY TERMINALS OUTSIDE OF KRME. GENERALLY
SPEAKING MVFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE HERE BUT SOME BRIEF IFR IS
POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS AT KITH AND KBGM TOWARD 0Z
THIS EVENING AS THE FLOW BACKS AND WEAKENS A WARM FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE AREA. AS THIS HAPPENS RESTRICTIONS WILL IMPROVE TO
VFR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS BUT MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTH THROUGH 06Z. AFTER 06Z, LOW CLOUDS SHOULD
SCATTER OUT WITH A MID DECK ABOVE DUE TO THE APPROACHING WARM
FRONT.
WITH THE FROPA THIS AFTERNOON WE ARE SEEING A TWO HOUR WINDOW OF
SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 15KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25KTS. EXPECT THIS TO
CONTINUE ACROSS THE NY TERMINALS THROUGH ABOUT 20Z. WINDS WILL BE
OUT OF THE NORTHWEST THROUGH EVENING...BACKING INTO THE SOUTHEAST
TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT.
.OUTLOOK...
FRI AND FRI NGT...MOSTLY VFR. SOME MVFR POSSIBLE AT KRME.
SAT THROUGH TUE...MOSTLY VFR BUT OCNL RESTRICTIONS IN LWR
CIGS/-SHRA/-SHSN...SPCLY NY STATE TERMINALS (KSYR/KRME/KITH/KBGM).
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...MSE/TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...RRM/SLI
AVIATION...HEDEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1014 AM CST THU JAN 5 2012
.DISCUSSION...
CHALLENGES TODAY WILL BE TEMPERATURES AND WIND. MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT...BUT WILL LEAN TOWARD THE HIGHER RESOLUTION RUC FOR THE
NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS.
16 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE FROM CENTRAL
SASKATCHEWAN TO SOUTHERN MANITOBA WITH A WARM FRONT JUST EAST OF
THE MN/ND BORDER. TEMPERATURES WEST OF THIS BOUNDARY WHERE SURFACE
WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. FARGO HAS ALREADY TIED ITS RECORD HIGH FOR
THE DAY. TEMPERATURES EAST OF THE BOUNDARY ARE A BIT COOLER IN THE
LOWER 30S. WARM AIR ADVECTION IS MAXIMIZED FROM THE SURFACE TO 850
HPA BY 18 UTC THIS AFTERNOON. AN IMPRESSIVE SURFACE INVERSION WILL
PREVENT FULL EXTENT OF WARMING ALOFT TO REACH THE SURFACE AND SOME
OF THIS ENERGY WILL GO INTO MELTING SNOW...BUT STILL EXPECT HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE MID 40S ACROSS THE SNOW PACK TO THE MID 50S FOR
AREAS WITH LITTLE TO NO SNOW. FORECAST HIGHS MAY STILL BE A BIT
LOW...ESPECIALLY IF THE INVERSION BREAKS DOWN ALLOWING FOR GREATER
MIXING. EITHER WAY...RECORDS WILL BE BROKEN TODAY.
ALL MODELS SHOWING 4O TO 50 KTS AT 925 HPA THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY. WITH THE STRONG INVERSION...SURFACE TEMPERATURES WOULD NEED
TO REACH THE UPPER 50S INTO THE 60S TO MIX THESE WINDS DRY
ADIABATICALLY TO THE SURFACE. DON/T THINK TEMPERATURES WILL GET
THAT WARM...SO WILL HOLD OFF ON AN ADVISORY FOR NOW. STILL SOMETHING
TO WATCH AS AREAS WITH LITTLE TO NO SNOW AND/OR THE HIGHER TERRAIN
WEST OF THE NORTHERN VALLEY MAY STILL TAP INTO STRONGER WINDS
ALOFT AND REACH SUSTAINED 30 MPH. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT BREEZY
WESTERLY WIND DEVELOPING LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
FROM 15 TO 25 MPH AND GUSTS TO 35 MPH.
MAIN CHANGES TO THE GRIDS WERE TO UPDATE THE TEMPERATURE CURVE AND
RAISE HIGH VALUES A COUPLE DEGREES ACROSS SNOW FREE AREAS. THE
REST OF THE FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED AT
THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...
WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY AND GUST TO NEAR 30KT BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING OVER ALL BUT THE FAR EAST. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
AT ALL TAF AIRFIELDS THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 AM CST THU JAN 5 2012/
SHORT TERM...
THE MAIN CHALLENGE IS TEMPS AND JUST HOW WARM WE WILL GET TODAY.
MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST.
PREFER THE GFS MOISTURE FIELDS WITH THE NAM DOING A BIT BETTER IN
REGARDS TO THERMAL FIELDS.
FOR TODAY...THE STAGE IS SET FOR RECORD TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE
REGION. WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS A THERMAL RIDGE
AT 925-850MB CRESTS OVER THE REGION AROUND 18Z. THERE WILL BE
NEARLY 50KT TO MIX TO THE SFC FROM 925MB...ALTHOUGH A STRONG
INVERSION SHOULD PRECLUDE MIXING OF ALL THIS WIND. IT WILL BECOME
WINDY THOUGH IN THE WEST AND BREEZY TO WINDY IN MOST AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON. GIVEN FAVORABLE WEST WINDS...VERY WARM TEMPS AND BARE
GROUND TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA EXPECT CHINOOK MODIFIED
AIR TO MOVE OVER THE REGION. AREAS THAT HAVE MORE SNOW IN THE
NORTH CENTRAL RED RIVER VALLEY WILL BE COOLER THAN THE WEST AND
SOUTH...BUT STILL EXPECTING EVEN SNOW COVERED AREAS FROM 40-45 AND
SNOW FREE AREAS FROM 50-55. THE RECORD HIGHS ARE 42 AT FGF AND
GFK...AND 40 IN FARGO. THESE SHOULD BE SURPASSED...WITH FARGO
POSSIBLY GETTING CLOSE TO THE ALL TIME JANUARY HIGH OF 54 SET ON
JANUARY 20 IN 1908. CAN/T EVEN RULE OUT THE GRAND FORKS AREA
GETTING CLOSE TO THE ALL TIME RECORD HIGHS OF 52 ON JANUARY 10 IN
1990...ALTHOUGH THINKING WITH DEEPER SNOW PACK HERE WE SHOULD
REMAIN IN THE 40S...BUT SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON. IF MORE
MIXING OCCURS AND THE INVERSION BECOMES MORE ADIABATIC THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN A WIND ADVISORY COULD BE NEEDED FOR
SOME AREAS. THE BIGGEST THREAT FOR STRONGER WINDS WILL BE IN THE
WEST AND WHERE SNOW COVER IS MINIMAL.
FOR TONIGHT...COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL MOVE IN ALOFT AND WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN IN THE BREEZY CATEGORY AT LEAST FOR MOST AREAS.
GIVEN FAIRLY WEAK SFC COLD ADVECTION...TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL
ABOVE NORMAL. CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE LATE IN THE NORTH WITH A
SHORTWAVE ROTATING INTO THE AREA. THE GFS WOULD BRING SOME
FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FAR NORTH LATE...BUT HAVE HELD OFF
MENTION UNTIL FRIDAY.
ON FRIDAY...EXPECT THE CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES IN
THE NORTH NEAR WRAPAROUND MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVE. THE REMAINDER OF
THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY WITH 850MB TEMPS COOLING TO AROUND -6C
BY AFTERNOON. THEREFORE EXPECT COOLER TEMPS THAN RECENT DAYS
ALTHOUGH STILL ABOVE NORMAL.
FOR SAT...TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY COOL WITH THE THREAT OF
CONTINUED SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES IN THE NORTH.
LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...
THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS WILL BE WARM TEMPS ON MON/TUE WITH MORE WARM
CHINOOK MODIFIED AIR. DID INCREASE TEMPS SOME BUT COULD BE EVEN
WARMER MON/TUE. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW TUE INTO
WED...WITH MUCH COLDER AIR AND WIND BEHIND THIS SYSTEM ON WED.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
ROGERS/DK