Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 12/11/11

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DENVER CO

1031 AM MST FRI DEC 9 2011

.UPDATE...NOW THAT THE FOG IS MOSTLY OUT OF MY TAF AIRPORTS I WILL
ADDRESS TEMPERATURES BEFORE NOON...IT IS PROBABLY A BIT TOO COLD.
THE SNOW AND FOG AREA NORTH OF DENVER WILL PLAY HAVOC WITH MAX AND
MIN TEMPS AND THE CHANCE OF FOG TONIGHT.

.AVIATION...FOG WILL MOST LIKELY DEVELOP OVER THE SNOWFIELD NORTH
OF DENVER AGAIN TONIGHT. MESOSCALE MODELS DO NOT AGREE WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITY FORECASTS...SO IT IS TOUGH TO SAY IF FOG
REDEVELOPS ACROSS THE METRO AREA. HAVE PUT IN VCFG AS A FIRST GUESS.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 AM MST FRI DEC 9 2011/

SHORT TERM...DRY NW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE AREA THRU TONIGHT.
HOWEVER WHAT APPEARS TO BE AN EASY FCST IS NOT DUE TO SHALLOW
INVERSIONS THAT WILL EXIST OVER LINGERING SNOWPACK ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE WHICH WILL AFFECT HIGH TEMPS. AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
HAVE DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF DENVER WHICH WILL
LINGER THRU THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE BREAKING UP BY MIDDAY. BY AFTN
IT APPEARS A WK DENVER CYCLONE WILL BE IN PLACE NR DENVER WITH SLY
LOW LVL FLOW FM DENVER SOUTH ACROSS THE PALMER DIVIDE WHILE FM
DENVER NORTH TO GREELEY AND FORT COLLINS WINDS WILL BE LIGHT NNE.
HIGHS OVER THE SRN SUBURBS MAY REACH THE LOWER 40S WHILE ACROSS THE
NRN SUBURBS TO FORT COLLINS AND GREELEY READINGS MAY NOT GET OUT OF
THE 20S AS THE SHALLOW INVERSIONS HOLD SO A 20 DEGREE SPREAD IN
HIGHS ACROSS THE METRO AREA IS CERTAINLY NOT IMPOSSIBLE. OVER THE
PLAINS WILL KEEP READINGS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S.

LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL SHIFT OVER COLORADO ON
SATURDAY WITH A DRY AND WARMER AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS COLORADO. FOR
SUNDAY...THE NEXT UPPER LOW WILL BE DEVELOPING ALONG THE WEST COAST
WHICH WILL SHIFT THE FLOW ALOFT TO A LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY OVER
COLORADO. IN ADDITION...THERE WILL BE A DEVELOPING SURFACE LEE TROF
AIDING TO THE WARMUP ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB
TO A BIT ABOVE SEASONABLE NORMALS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL
TAKE A GOOD BITE OUT OF THE SNOW COVER OVER THE FRONT RANGE.

THE PATTERN EVOLUTION THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK IS SHOWING A BIT
BETTER CONSENSUS AMONGST THE LONG RANGE MODELS AS THE GFS HAS COME
MORE IN LINE WITH THE EUROPEAN...WITH A QUICKER EJECTION OF THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST LOW INTO COLORADO SOMETIME ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW TO THE MOUNTAINS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. THE
PATTERN DOES NOT FAVOR THE PLAINS MUCH FOR PRECIP SO WILL SIT WITH
THE SLIGHT CHANCE CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST.

AVIATION...IFR CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE
AIRPORT WITH CAMS SHOWING FOG ALONG E-470 AND ALONG I-76. THE NAM
AND RUC KEEP THESE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG NORTH OF THE AIRPORT THRU THE
MORNING HOURS WHILE THE HRRR SHOWS IT AFFECTING THE AIRPORT THRU 15Z
WITH VISIBILITIES DROPPING DOWN TO 1/4 MILE. IF WK DENVER CYCLONE
STAYS TO THE NE OF DIA AND SFC WINDS BECOME LIGHT NWLY THEN THE LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG MAY MOVE INTO THE AIRPORT BY 11Z. CURRENT TAF HAS
A TEMPO GROUP WITH VISIBILITIES DROPPING DOWN TO 1 MILE AND CEILING
AROUND 500 FT SO MAY HAVE TO ADJUST LOWER AS CONDITIONS DVLP. AFT
15Z THE HRRR SHOWS WINDS BECOMING SLY AND THEN SELY BY MIDDAY. IF
THAT HAPPENS THEN LOW CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY ERODE BY MID TO LATE
MORNING WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS. FOR TONIGHT EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS WITH WINDS BECOMING DRAINAGE BY 02Z.

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...RTG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DENVER CO

250 AM MST FRI DEC 9 2011

.SHORT TERM...DRY NW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE AREA THRU TONIGHT.
HOWEVER WHAT APPEARS TO BE AN EASY FCST IS NOT DUE TO SHALLOW
INVERSIONS THAT WILL EXIST OVER LINGERING SNOWPACK ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE WHICH WILL AFFECT HIGH TEMPS. AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
HAVE DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF DENVER WHICH WILL
LINGER THRU THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE BREAKING UP BY MIDDAY. BY AFTN
IT APPEARS A WK DENVER CYCLONE WILL BE IN PLACE NR DENVER WITH SLY
LOW LVL FLOW FM DENVER SOUTH ACROSS THE PALMER DIVIDE WHILE FM
DENVER NORTH TO GREELEY AND FORT COLLINS WINDS WILL BE LIGHT NNE.
HIGHS OVER THE SRN SUBURBS MAY REACH THE LOWER 40S WHILE ACROSS THE
NRN SUBURBS TO FORT COLLINS AND GREELEY READINGS MAY NOT GET OUT OF
THE 20S AS THE SHALLOW INVERSIONS HOLD SO A 20 DEGREE SPREAD IN
HIGHS ACROSS THE METRO AREA IS CERTAINLY NOT IMPOSSIBLE. OVER THE
PLAINS WILL KEEP READINGS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S.

.LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL SHIFT OVER COLORADO ON
SATURDAY WITH A DRY AND WARMER AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS COLORADO. FOR
SUNDAY...THE NEXT UPPER LOW WILL BE DEVELOPING ALONG THE WEST COAST
WHICH WILL SHIFT THE FLOW ALOFT TO A LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY OVER
COLORADO. IN ADDITION...THERE WILL BE A DEVELOPING SURFACE LEE TROF
AIDING TO THE WARMUP ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB
TO A BIT ABOVE SEASONABLE NORMALS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL
TAKE A GOOD BITE OUT OF THE SNOW COVER OVER THE FRONT RANGE.

.AVIATION...IFR CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE
AIRPORT WITH CAMS SHOWING FOG ALONG E-470 AND ALONG I-76. THE NAM
AND RUC KEEP THESE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG NORTH OF THE AIRPORT THRU THE
MORNING HOURS WHILE THE HRRR SHOWS IT AFFECTING THE AIRPORT THRU 15Z
WITH VISIBILITIES DROPPING DOWN TO 1/4 MILE. IF WK DENVER CYCLONE
STAYS TO THE NE OF DIA AND SFC WINDS BECOME LIGHT NWLY THEN THE LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG MAY MOVE INTO THE AIRPORT BY 11Z. CURRENT TAF HAS
A TEMPO GROUP WITH VISIBILITIES DROPPING DOWN TO 1 MILE AND CEILING
AROUND 500 FT SO MAY HAVE TO ADJUST LOWER AS CONDITIONS DVLP. AFT
15Z THE HRRR SHOWS WINDS BECOMING SLY AND THEN SELY BY MIDDAY. IF
THAT HAPPENS THEN LOW CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY ERODE BY MID TO LATE
MORNING WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS. FOR TONIGHT EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS WITH WINDS BECOMING DRAINAGE BY 02Z.

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM....SWE
AVIATION...RPK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MELBOURNE FL

901 PM EST SAT DEC 10 2011

.DISCUSSION...
DEEP ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER 24 HOURS AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS WELL NORTH OF CENTRAL FLORIDA. FORECAST
DEPENDENT UPON WHERE CONVERGENT BANDS SET UP. RADAR TREND HAS BEEN
INDICATING A SLOW SHIFT NORTHWARD OVER BREVARD COUNTY AND THE
COASTAL WATERS BETWEEN DAYTONA BEACH AND MELBOURNE. LOCATION OF THE
BOUNDARY FOR THE MOMENT BASED UPON THE RADAR PRESENTATION. PRECIP
RETURNS SOUTH OF MELBOURNE SPLITTING WITH THE PRECIP OVER WATER
MOVING NORTHEAST AND THE RETURNS OVER LAND MOVING SOUTHWEST AND
WEST. THE ECHOS NORTH OF MELBOURNE WERE MOVING TO THE SOUTHWEST.
LATEST ROUND OF METARS ALONG THE COAST...BUOY REPORTS AND RADAR LOOP
SHOWING AN INVERTED TROUGH FORMING THAT WAS CREATING A NICE
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST CONVERGENT LINE MELBOURNE NORTH. RUC LOW
LEVEL WIND STREAMLINE ANALYSIS ALSO SHOWING A NORTHEAST SOUTHWEST
CONVERGENCE LINE FORMING. ALL THIS IS ENHANCING WINDS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS AND ALONG THE COAST CAPE CANAVERAL NORTH.

COASTAL POP OF 50 GOOD FOR THE OVERNIGHT. DECREASING POP AWAY FROM
THE COAST LOOKS GOOD.

OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM MID AND UPPER 60S AT THE COAST TO THE
UPPER 50S NORTH AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 4 STILL GOOD.

.AVIATION...
TONIGHT...TEMPO IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS IN/NEAR HEAVIER SHOWERS ALONG
THE COAST AND IN LOW CLOUDS BEING ADVECTED SOUTH OVER THE NORTHERN
TAF SITES.

SUN...TEMPO MVFR COASTAL ROUTES AND TERMINALS AS HEAVIER RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO KEEP COMING OFF THE ATLANTIC.

.MARINE...
ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE TWO MARINE ZONES BETWEEN
FLAGLER BEACH AND THE VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE. AN INVERTED
TROUGH WAS FORMING AND IT WAS CREATING A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT RESULTING IN NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS IN THE
NEARSHORE ZONE EXTENDING INTO THE OFFSHORE ZONE. LETTING THAT
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY RUN UNTIL 12Z THEN THE NEXT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE IT AFTER 12Z SUNDAY.

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20
TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM SUNDAY TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR
COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20
NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
SEBASTIAN INLET OUT 20 NM.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR
WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM
OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

UPDATES/AVIATION...WIMMER
IMPACT WX/RADAR....GLITTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHARLESTON SC

704 AM EST FRI DEC 9 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY DOMINATE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NEAR-DAWN...ONSHORE ADVECTION OF MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS
ASSISTING EXPANDING STRATOCUMULUS DEVELOPMENT OVER THE FORECAST
AREA THIS MORNING BUT CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO INCREASE OVER SE
SOUTH CAROLINA PRIOR TO DAWN. TEMPS AT DAYBREAK A FUNCTION OF
CLOUD COVER...LOW TO MID 30S WHERE SKIES STILL CLEAR...UPPER 30S
TO MID 40S WHERE CLOUDS HAVE BEEN PERSISTING.

A BROAD SW-NE UPPER JET WILL RESIDE FROM THE GULF COAST STATES
TO THE MID ATLC TODAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRES OVER THE REGION.
A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO RACE E ALONG THE UPPER GULF
COAST OUT OF TEXAS TODAY AND THIS SHOULD SLIGHTLY BACK OUR UPPER
FLOW LATE. MODELS HAVE BEEN IN AGREEMENT IN FORMATION OF A COASTAL
TROUGH TODAY AND EVEN A SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG IT. THE MAIN
00Z MODEL DIFFERENCES ARE HIGHLIGHTED BY HOW FAR OFF THE COAST WEAK
CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS. THE NAM AND HRRR SUGGEST THE TROUGH AND WAVE
WILL NUDGE CLOSER TO THE COAST BUT BOTH MAY BE JUST A BIT TOO
AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIP FIELDS GIVEN THE DRY GFS. IT APPEARS THAT
AFTER MID AFTERNOON ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS COULD INDEED OCCUR IN THE
CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY AREA OR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST FROM
CHARLESTON N. WE MAINTAINED SILENT POPS BUT DID INDICATE SOME
COASTAL SHOWERS ADJACENT TO CHARLESTON COUNTY LATE DAY.

ALL OTHER AREAS...MAINLY A SKY COVER AND TEMP FORECAST TODAY WITH
EXPANDING AREAS OF STRATOCUMULUS EXPECTED IN MANY PLACES BUT MODELS
NOT MUCH IN UNISON WITH CLOUD TRENDS EITHER TODAY. WE MAINTAINED
PERSISTENCE WITH A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY FORECAST. MILDER WEATHER
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. THICKER MORE PERSISTENT CLOUD
COVER ANYWHERE WOULD RESULT IN SLIGHT LOWER TEMPS WITH A LIGHT NNE
WIND.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...CLOUDS SHOULD PREVAIL MOST AREAS DURING THE EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT AS THE GULF COAST SHORT WAVE APPROACHES. A FEW EARLY
EVENING SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY AREA.
LATE TONIGHT...A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MAY STREAK OVER OUR SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA ZONES IN ASSOCIATION WITH PVA AND SOMEWHAT HIGHER
CONDENSATION PRES DEFICITS THERE. WE INTRODUCED A 20 POP TO THE S OF
SAVANNAH LATE BUT DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN WAY OF MEASURABLE RAIN.
CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY BE CLEARING INLAND LATE BUT THE BLANKETS OF
CLOUDS SHOULD MAKE FOR MILDER LOW TEMPS TONIGHT IN THE 40S MANY
AREAS. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND LIGHT WINDS MAY BEGIN TO STIR A BIT TOWARD DAWN EVEN
OVER INLAND AREAS.

A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PATTERN WILL FAVOR SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING NORTH OF THE REGION WITH A PERSISTENT COASTAL TROUGH ALONG
THE SC/GA COASTLINE. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVER THE WATERS AND ALONG
THE COAST WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME.
ELSEWHERE...DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW
NORMAL SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY BEHIND A REINFORCING COLD
FRONT.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A RELATIVELY ZONAL FLOW WILL GIVE WAY TO A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE MID
TO LATE NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT COULD APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM TO ABOVE-NORMAL VALUES BY LATE
IN THE PERIOD WITH GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS.

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KSAV...VFR CIGS 4-6 KFT LOOKS TO HAVE SETTLED IN. THESE CIGS
SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD PRIOR TO 12Z/10.
THERE ARE SMALL CHANCES OF MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT...
TOO LOW TO WORK INTO THE TAF.

AT KCHS...12Z SOUNDING WAS QUITE MOIST BUT CLOUDS FEW TO SCATTERED
THUS FAR. IT LOOKS LIKE CIGS WILL BE VFR 4-6 KFT WHEN THEY DO DEVELOP
AND PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE ARE SMALL CHANCES OF BRIEF MVFR
CIGS THIS MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT. A FEW MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE SMALL CHANCES FOR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES LATE
THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. CONFIDENCE IN EITHER MVFR OR RAIN MENTIONS
TOO LOW FOR MENTIONS AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.

.MARINE...
STRONG THERMAL AND MOISTURE GRADIENTS HAVE ELEVATED NE WINDS TO A
SOLID 15 KT OVERNIGHT. SEAS HAVE BEEN BUILDING A BIT AT GRAYS
REEF AND WERE BETWEEN 4-5 FT PRE-DAWN. WINDS SHOULD BACK A BIT
TODAY WITH DIMINISHING SPEEDS AND SEAS REMAINING 2-4 FT. 5 FT
SEAS WELL OFF THE GEORGIA COAST EARLY TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND N WINDS SHOULD
BEGIN TO SHOW A LATE NIGHT UPTICK...NEARING 15 KT BY DAWN WITH
SEAS BUILDING BY A FOOT OR SO TOWARD DAYBREAK ON SAT TO THE S OF
CHARLESTON.

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. A CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN WINDS/SEAS EXPECTED AS
THE NORTHEAST GRADIENT TIGHTENS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
LIKELY ALL WATERS...EXCEPT PERHAPS CHARLESTON HARBOR...SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. THERE IS EVEN A CHANCE THAT GALE CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EAST.

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHARLESTON SC

421 AM EST FRI DEC 9 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY DOMINATE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PRE-DAWN...PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS HAVE BEEN CROSSING GEORGIA AND THE
CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT AND AREAS OF STRATOCUMULUS RECENTLY DEVELOPING
OVER SE GEORGIA AND COASTAL SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA. A GOOD GRADIENT
OF TEMPS WITH A FEW AREAS AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING OVER LOCALES
ADJACENT TO THE SE CSRA AND SE MIDLANDS REGIONS...40S CLOSER TO
THE COAST.

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING AT BOTH KCHS AND
KSAV. THEN...STRATOCUMULUS POSITIONED OFF THE COAST COULD BEGIN TO
ADVECT INLAND LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS
ONSHORE. WHILE CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT BOTH TERMINALS...
MODELS SUGGEST THEY SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN VFR. THERE IS A SMALL
POTENTIAL FOR SOME MARGINAL MVFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP FROM DAYBREAK
THROUGH LATE MORNING...BUT GIVEN THE LOW PROBABILITY WILL ONLY
SHOW THIS CLOUD LAYER AS SCATTERED. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW CIGS MAINLY
4-6 KFT BY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LIGHT WINDS THROUGHOUT WITH
A N TO NE COMPONENT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

JRL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

305 AM CST FRI DEC 9 2011

.DISCUSSION...
910 PM CST

THE SNOW POTENTIAL CONTINUES FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT AS
THE CLIPPER SYSTEM BECOMES MORE ENHANCED WITH THE UPPER COLD
TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHWARD INTO THE MIDWEST. THE DRY AIR IN THE LOW
LEVELS WAS EVIDENT ON THIS EVENINGS DVN SOUNDING...WITH STILL
NOTEWORTHY T/TD SPREAD BELOW 710 MB. IN THE PAST HOUR
THOUGH...MULTIPLE SOUTHEAST IA SITES HAVE BEGUN REPORTING SNOW AS
MORE FORCING LIKELY AIDS IN DEEPER MOISTENING OF THE COLUMN. EVEN
CEDAR RAPIDS HAS SEEN SNOW...WHICH IS BASICALLY DUE WEST OF
CHICAGO /IN OTHER WORDS...SUPPORT FOR LIGHT SNOW HAS REACHED THIS
FAR NORTH/. VARIOUS SHORT TERM MODELS AGREE WITH A PRIMARY CORRIDOR
OF SNOW...MAINLY LIGHT LIKELY...DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL
IL...TOWARDS WATSEKA/RANTOUL/CHAMPAIGN AND INTO NORTHERN IN BY OR
SOON AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS IS IN PLACE WITH SYNOPTIC FORCING...AND
MESOSCALE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AT 280-285K AND MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS ON THE 09.00 NAM. THESE FEATURES ARE SOMEWHAT
TRANSIENT THOUGH...AND THE SHORT-LIVED NATURE LIKELY IS ONLY TO
RESULT IN A HALF AN INCH AT THE MOST. THIS IN LINE WITH THE NAM
AND GFS COBB DATA FOR NEARBY LAFAYETTE. ONE TRICKY ASPECT IS
FURTHER NORTH...WHERE THE HRRR HAS CONTINUOUSLY TRIED TO SHOW SNOW
BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 3 AM ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE CHICAGO METRO AREA. THIS IS IN TANDEM WITH WHEN THE UPPER
TROUGH/POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY COMES ACROSS. HAVING ALREADY
SEEN SNOW THIS FAR NORTH OUT TO OUR WEST...CANNOT RULE OUT SNOW
YET IN CHICAGO. HAVE FURTHER TIGHTENED THE POP GRADIENT IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT...AS WELL AS SLOWED THE
TEMPERATURE DROP THIS EVENING. THE BULK OF THE CONTINENTAL POLAR
AIR MASS WILL OOZE IN VERY LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

MTF

//PREV DISCUSSION...
338 PM CST

MAIN CONCERNS FOR THE FORECAST IN THE NEAR TERM REVOLVE AROUND
CHANCES FOR SNOW TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...AS WELL AS A
MUCH COLDER AIR MASS TO DROP SOUTH OVER THE CWA TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. LATEST THINKING IS THAT THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW
REMAINS...BUT FOR THIS TO MORE LIKELY OCCUR OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE CWA.

A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY HAS BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA AS A
STREAM OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE HAS MOVED EAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
MIDDLE PART OF THE CONUS TODAY. THIS HAS OCCURRED OUT AHEAD OF
LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WITH
THE ABSENCE OF ANY STRONGER MID/UPPER LEVEL FEATURES PROGRESSING
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...SURFACE PATTERN REMAINS FAIRLY RELAXED WITH
SURFACE RIDGING JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA. EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO ONLY
INCREASE OVER THE ENTIRE CWA THIS EVENING AS THIS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH...WITH CHANCES FOR SNOW
INCREASING INTO TONIGHT.

LIGHT SNOW STILL ANTICIPATED TO SHIFT ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY...BUT WITH SOME OF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED CONCERNS
STILL IN PLACE. LATEST MOSAIC RADAR IS SHOWING AN AREA OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW SLOWLY MOVING EAST ACROSS NEBRASKA AND IOWA THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS AREA OF SNOW IS FORMING IN A WEAK AREA OF MID
LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORT
WAVE TROUGH. ALTHOUGH THE LATEST THINKING IS FOR THIS AREA OF SNOW
TO WORK ITS WAY EAST THIS EVENING...NOT THINKING THIS WILL AFFECT
MOST OF THE AREA...IN TERMS OF ACCUMULATION. 12Z UPPER AIR
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A FAIR AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN PLACE
ACROSS THE CWA...AND ITS THIS DRIER AIR WHICH WILL BE ONE FACTOR
THAT WILL HELP LIMIT OVERALL SNOWFALL POTENTIAL. THE OTHER FACTOR
WILL BE WITH FORCING ACROSS THE CWA. LOW/MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE
STILL FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA AS A MUCH COLDER AIR
MASS DROPS SOUTH. PREVIOUSLY MODEL RUNS WERE INDICATING AT THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME WEAK TO MODERATE FORCING IN RESPONSE TO THIS
DIRECT THERMAL CIRCULATION ACROSS THE CWA. ALTHOUGH WITH LATEST
MODEL RUNS...HAVE NOT BEEN OVERLY EXCITED WITH WHAT I HAVE BEEN
SEEING. LOW LEVEL FORCING IS NONEXISTENT WITH ANY MID LEVEL
FORCING INCONSISTENT AND WEAK AT BEST. THE ONLY FORCING THAT
APPEARS TO BE LOCATED ACROSS THE CWA IS TIED TO UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK. ITS
NOT UNTIL YOU GET A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH/SOUTHEAST THAT BETTER
FORCING WILL RESIDE...WHICH WILL OCCUR JUST AT OR SOUTH OF THE
SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE CWA. LOOKING AT VARIOUS HIRES/SREF MODEL
OUTPUT...ALL SIGNALS INDICATE THIS LATEST THINKING.

WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE LOWERED POPS ONCE AGAIN TODAY...MAINLY
FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA AS I AM NOT THAT THRILLED FOR THE
IDEA OF ANY GOOD ACCUMULATION. ALTHOUGH...STILL DID LEAVE MENTION
OF SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE MIDDLE
PORTION OF THE CWA. THE POSSIBILITY DOES REMAIN FOR SOME FLURRIES
OR LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THIS AREA...BUT WITH NO
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE CORRIDOR...SNOW
AMOUNTS UP TO A HALF AN INCH ARE STILL POSSIBLE BY EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. ANY LINGERING SNOWFALL TO EXIT BY FRIDAY MORNING WITH
CLOUD COVER TO ERODE FROM THE WEST. A COLD AIR MASS WILL THEN
CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH OVER THE CWA AS THIS LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES
OVERHEAD. A CHILLY DAY IN STORE ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
20S WITH MUCH LOWER TEMPERATURES FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT. AS SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS OVERHEAD...CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL...WITH FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND LOWER
TEENS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINING CWA.

RODRIGUEZ

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 08Z...

* LGT SN CONTINUES THRU 10Z. VSBYS WILL FLUCTUATE BETWEEN
2-3SM...AND CIGS BETWEEN 2KFT AND 3KFT AGL.

* SN WILL PUSH EAST AND END BEFORE DAYBREAK WITH A RETURN TO VFR
CONDS.

BEACHLER

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...

LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE MS VALLEY CONTINUED TO
MOVE EASTWARD. A SECOND SHORT WAVE TROUGH HAS CONTINUED TO ROTATE
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS TO WESTERN MN AND
NORTHWEST IA. THE INITIAL SHORT WAVE HAS BEEN GRADUALLY SPREADING
SNOW EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF OF IA INTO PORTIONS OF FAR
NORTHWEST IL...AND A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW INTO WEST CENTRAL IL
DURING THE EVENING.

WHILE RADAR ECHOES COVER MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL IL ALMOST
ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION IS EVAPORATING BEFORE REACHING THE
GROUND AS QUITE DRY LOW LEVEL AIR IN PLACE WITH SURFACE DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS 18 TO 20 DEGREES F JUST NORTH OF THE WI BORDER. UNDER
THE FEW STRONGER BANDS LIGHT SNOW HAS MADE IT TO THE GROUND WITH
IT BEING REPORTED FROM THE QUAD CITIES AND KC75 TO AS FAR NORTH
AS KSFY.

WITH THE FIRST SHORT WAVE CONTINUING ACROSS SOUTHERN WI AND
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL IL OVERNIGHT SOME LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS NORTHEAST IL. WITH ONLY VERY LIGHT INTENSITY AND
SHORT DURATION OF OCCURRENCE EXPECT KORD AND KMDW TO ONLY RECEIVE
A TOTAL OF A TRACE TO 0.1 INCH OF SNOWFALL. AS THIS SHORT WAVE
TROUGH PASSES OVERHEAD AND TO THE EAST LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME
WEST-NORTHWEST AND ADVECT THE VERY DRY AIR ACROSS MN...WI AND
NORTHEAST IA ACROSS NORTHERN IL.

THE SECOND SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE TO A POSITION
FROM NORTHEAST WI SOUTHWEST ACROSS IA AT 18Z. THIS WILL CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL IL TO NORTHERN
IND DURING THE EARLY AND MID MORNING BUT DUE TO INTRUSION OF
INCREASINGLY DRY LOW LEVEL AIR THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN SOUTH OF THE LOCAL TERMINALS. WITH PASSAGE OF SECOND SHORT
WAVE TROUGH DURING THE DAY FRI SKIES WILL CLEAR.

SURFACE WINDS ONLY TO BACK AND VEER 20 DEG OR SO AS EACH SHORT
WAVE TROUGH PASSES BY.

TRS

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 08Z...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR/SPEED.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS/VSBY PRIOR TO 13Z.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS/VSBY AFT 13Z.

BEACHLER

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 00Z...

SATURDAY...VFR.

SUNDAY...VFR.

MONDAY...VFR.

TUESDAY...VFR.

WEDNESDAY...VFR. CHC SHRA DURING NIGHT.

TRS

.MARINE...
305 AM CST

LOW PRESSURE OVER HUDSON BAY WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
TODAY. HOWEVER...WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO STREAM COLD AIR OUT OF CANADA AND ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. THE VERY COLD AIR MOVING OVER RELATIVELY WARMER WATER WILL
BRING A CHANCE FOR WATERSPOUTS OVER THE LAKE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW. AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPS OUT OF THE CANADIAN
ROCKIES SATURDAY...WINDS OVER THE LAKE WILL TURN MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY AND AS THE LOW TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WHILE
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLE SOUTH OF THE LAKES ON SUNDAY...SOUTHWEST
WINDS MAY INCREASE TO GALE FORCE.

KREIN

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE BURNS HARBOR TO MICHIGAN CITY IN UNTIL 10 AM SATURDAY.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

210 AM CST FRI DEC 9 2011

.DISCUSSION...
910 PM CST

MTF

//PREV DISCUSSION...
338 PM CST

RODRIGUEZ

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 08Z...

* LGT SN CONTINUES THRU 10Z. VSBYS WILL FLUCTUATE BETWEEN
2-3SM...AND CIGS BETWEEN 2KFT AND 3KFT AGL.

* SN WILL PUSH EAST AND END BEFORE DAYBREAK WITH A RETURN TO VFR
CONDS.

BEACHLER

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...

SURFACE WINDS ONLY TO BACK AND VEER 20 DEG OR SO AS EACH SHORT
WAVE TROUGH PASSES BY.

TRS

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 08Z...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR/SPEED.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS/VSBY PRIOR TO 13Z.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS/VSBY AFT 13Z.

BEACHLER

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 00Z...

SATURDAY...VFR.

SUNDAY...VFR.

MONDAY...VFR.

TUESDAY...VFR.

WEDNESDAY...VFR. CHC SHRA DURING NIGHT.

TRS

.MARINE...
138 PM CST

COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SPILL ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN TONIGHT AND ON
FRIDAY AS A SECONDARY PUSH OF COLD AIR OCCURS. THIS COLD
AIR...COMBINED WITH A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN ACROSS THE PLAINS...WILL ALLOW WESTERLY WINDS
OF 15 TO 30 KT TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE LAKE. HOWEVER...THE STRONGEST
WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE.

THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE FOR LATE
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. IT APPEARS THAT AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. AS THIS
DOES SO...HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THESE TWO PRESSURE SYSTEMS LOOK TO SET
UP A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT DURING THIS TIME FRAME...WHICH WILL
SUPPORT STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. GALE FORCE WINDS AROUND 35 KT
ARE QUITE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY ON THE NORTH END OF THE
LAKE. THESE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK...BUT LOOK
TO ABATE BY MID WEEK AS A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

KJB

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE BURNS HARBOR TO MICHIGAN CITY IN UNTIL 10 AM SATURDAY.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

1100 PM CST THU DEC 8 2011

.DISCUSSION...
910 PM CST

MTF

//PREV DISCUSSION...
338 PM CST

RODRIGUEZ

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...

*THREAT OF SHORT PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW OVERNIGHT-PREDAWN.

TRS

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...

SURFACE WINDS ONLY TO BACK AND VEER 20 DEG OR SO AS EACH SHORT
WAVE TROUGH PASSES BY.

TRS

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...

*HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND AND CLOUD FORECASTS.

*MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE COUPLE HOUR WINDOW WHEN LIGHT SNOW
MAY OCCUR.

TRS

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 00Z...

*
SATURDAY...VFR.

SUNDAY...VFR.

MONDAY...VFR.

TUESDAY...VFR.

WEDNESDAY...VFR. CHC SHRA DURING NIGHT.
*

TRS

.MARINE...
138 PM CST

KJB

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE BURNS HARBOR TO MICHIGAN CITY IN UNTIL 10 AM SATURDAY.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN

1117 PM EST THU DEC 8 2011

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SOUTHEAST OF CENTRAL INDIANA WILL
QUICKLY DEPART THE AREA TONIGHT AS A QUICK MOVING UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE PUSHES INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY
LATE TONIGHT. DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE...ANY SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE QUITE LIGHT.

THE UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL EXIT BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...ALLOWING
COLDER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO ARRIVE FOR THE
WEEKEND. IF FACT...HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY MAY NOT RISE
ABOVE FREEZING AT IND. THIS WOULD BE THE FIRST TIME THAT HAS
HAPPENED SINCE FEBRUARY 10TH 2011.

DRY WEATHER SHOULD THEN PERSIST UNTIL TUESDAY WHEN ANOTHER
MOISTURE STARVED QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
AREA. ANOTHER STRONGER SYSTEM MAY ARRIVE ON THURSDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS STATES.

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...
MODELS SHOW UPPER FORCING FOR THE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT ALL STAYING NORTH...AND CROSS SECTIONS DON/T SHOW ANY
INSTABILITY TO CONTRIBUTE TO BANDING. 0Z NAM SHOWS ISENTROPIC
LIFT AT 6Z BUT SATURATION DOESN/T MAKE IT DOWN TO THE LOWER LEVELS
UNTIL 9Z WHEN MOST OF THE ISENTROPIC LIFT IS GONE. THAT SAID THE
NAM IS STILL PRODUCING QPF GENERALLY NORTH OF I70.

0 AND 1Z RUC ARE KEEPING ALL PRECIPITATION WEST AND THEN NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA...AND THE LATEST RUN IS SHOWING LESS ISENTROPIC
LIFT AVAILABLE THAN EARLIER RUNS. ALL OF THE CURRENT SNOW THAT IS
FALLING IN NEBRASKA...IOWA AND WESTERN ILLINOIS APPEARS TO BE
ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER FORCING AND IS BEHIND THE FRONT. HOWEVER THE
RAPID REFRESH SHOWS THE SNOW IN THE WESTERN ILLINOIS BAND EXPANDING
AND PRODUCING MEASURABLE SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES BY AROUND
6 OR 7Z...WHICH LOOKS MUCH MORE LIKE THE 0Z NAM.

ULTIMATELY AM FEELING FAIRLY CONFIDENT IN THE FORECAST OF LITTLE TO
NO ACCUMULATION FROM THE I70 CORRIDOR SOUTH. GREATEST UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS NORTH OF A DANVILLE ILLINOIS TO MUNCIE LINE WHERE MODEL
DISAGREEMENT IS HIGH AND ANALYSIS OF CURRENT CONDITIONS IS
UNFORTUNATELY NOT PROVIDING A LIGHTBULB MOMENT. CEILINGS HAVE BEEN
DROPPING AT KLAF...SO THERE IS SOME INDICATION THEY COULD SATURATE
ENOUGH EVENTUALLY THAT ISENTROPIC LIFT COULD PRODUCE A LITTLE
ACCUMULATION. WITH MORE MODELS POINTING TO SOME AMOUNT OF SNOW IN
THE NORTH THAN NOT...THINK BEST COURSE OF ACTION AT THIS TIME IS TO
RAISE POPS THERE INTO THE HIGHER CHANCE CATEGORY. WITH THE RUC
SHOWING DRY OVER THE AREA THOUGH AND LESS IMPRESSIVE FORCING WILL
NOT GO UP TO LIKELIES THERE. WILL ALSO NOT MAKE ANY ADJUSTMENTS TO
AMOUNTS...WITH ONLY HALF AN INCH TOTALS IN THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES
AND OTHER FIELDS STILL LOOK ON TRACK...SO NO OTHER CHANGES MADE.

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

MAIN FOCUS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE ENDING ANY SNOWFALL ON
FRIDAY AND THEN FOCUS WILL BE TEMPERATURES.

TIME HEIGHTS ON FRIDAY MORNING CONTINUE TO SHOW A SIMILAR PATTERN
TO WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED IN THE PRIOR PERIOD...WITH
LIMITED FORCING AND LIMITED SATURATION. THUS SOME LINGERING LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS OF
THE FORECAST AREA...AND GRADUALLY TAPER OFF AS THE DAY PROGRESSES
AS THE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE DEPARTS. BY 00Z
FORECAST SOUNDINGS BECOME QUITE DRY AS STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
THAT STARTS IN THE MORNING CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY. 850MB TEMPS
ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO A CHILLY -9 BY 00Z AND TO -11C BY 12Z.
THUS WILL TREND HIGHS ON FRIDAY NEAR MAVMOS 3 HOURLIES INSTEAD.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS THEN DRY OUT SIGNIFICANTLY ON FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS A LARGE AREA OF COLD HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. AS STATED ABOVE...HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO EXCEED FREEZING AND WILL AGAIN TRENDS
THESE TOWARD THE 3HOURLY MAVMOS TEMPS. AS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
LOWS...CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS. THUS WILL
TREND FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS COOLER THAN MAVMOS.

MUCH STRONGER WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE IN PLACE ON SATURDAY
NIGHT AND ON SUNDAY AS THE DOME OF COLD AIR DEPARTS TO THE EAST
AND SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW BEGINS ON RETURN FLOW AROUND THE
SURFACE HIGH TO THE EAST. PLENTY OF SUN STILL EXPECTED FOR
SATURDAY...HOWEVER A FEW MORE CLOUDS ON SUNDAY AMID THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION. STILL PARTLY CLOUDY WILL BE THE RULE. WILL TREND
SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS WARMER THAN MAVMOS AS WELL AS SUNDAY/S HIGHS
GIVEN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

QUITE A BIT OF DIFFERENCES AMONG THE ENSEMBLE DATA REGARDING HOW
FAST THE CUTOFF LOW THAT IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE SOUTHWEST
PARTS OF THE COUNTRY ON MONDAY WILL EJECT TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY.
THERE DOES SEEM TO BE SOME AGREEMENT THAT OVERALL...LONG WAVE
TROUGHING WILL BE LOCATED AROUND THE MIDDLE OF COUNTRY BY NEXT
THURSDAY. AS A RESULT...WILL GO WITH A GRADUALLY INCREASING
THREAT OF PRECIPITATION STARTING ON TUESDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS EXPECTED BY NEXT THURSDAY CLOSEST TO THE APPROACH OF THE LONG
WAVE TROUGH.

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 090600Z TAFS/...

EXPECT CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR OR POSSIBLY
IFR IN LIGHT SNOW AT LAF AROUND ISSUANCE TIME AS AN UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. MEANWHILE...IND AND HUF SHOULD BE AT
THE EDGE OF ANY LIGHT SNOW FIELD...SO WILL GO WITH ONLY MVFR
CONDITIONS IN THE FLURRIES THERE OVERNIGHT ENDING MID MORNING. BMG
SHOULD JUST SEE VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD AS DEEPER MOISTURE STAYS TO
THE NORTH. MEANWHILE...COLD FRONT JUST NORTH OF LAF AT 04Z EXPECTED
TO MOVE TO NEAR HUF AND IND AROUND 07Z OVERNIGHT AND 09Z AT BMG.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND SHIFT
TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND IT INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS AFTER 18Z
THIS AFTERNOON AS ALL SITES IMPROVE TO VFR.

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...MK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL

612 PM CST SAT DEC 10 2011

.AVIATION...
BATCH OF LOW CLOUDS WITH LOW VFR TO HIGH MVFR CIGS HAS PUSHED EAST
OF TERMINALS. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES OVER TERMINALS REST OF EVE
INTO OVRNGT. CONCERN LATER IN THE OVRNGT PD AND THROUGH DAY ON SUN
WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS AND IFR TO MVFR CIGS. STRATUS
OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN KS HAS NOT MIXED OUT AND IN FACT HAS SHOWN
NEWD MOVEMENT PER SATL LOOP OVER PAST HR OR SO. RUC BACKUP MODEL
CIG FCST ACTUALLY APPEAR TO BE ONLY MODEL THAT HAS THE STRATUS
AND IT SUPPORTS CONTINUED NEWD MOVEMENT AND EXPANSION OF STRATUS
REST OF TNGT... EVENTUALLY OVERSPREADING TERMINALS LATE TNGT
THROUGH MID AM SUN. NAM LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION PROGS AT 925 MB
WOULD LEND SUPPORT TO DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS INTO EASTERN IA...
DESPITE THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL RH. GIVEN ALL OF THE ABOVE HAVE
INTRODUCED STRATUS AT TERMINALS WITH OOZ TAFS BUT OPTED TO OMIT
CIGS FOR NOW... AND MONITOR SATL/OB TRENDS AND CIG MENTIONS MAY BE
NEEDED WITH 06Z TAF ISSUANCE. WINDS GENERALLY S/SE TNGT AT 5-10
KTS INCREASING TO 11-18 KTS FROM S/SW WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLE IN
L20 KTS BY SUN AFTN.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM CST SAT DEC 10 2011/

SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE EXTENDED FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER
SOUTHWESTERN CANADA...AHEAD OF A MID LEVEL TROF JUST OF THE
BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. DOWNSTREAM FROM THE TROF...BROAD MID LEVEL
RIDGING COVERED THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS WITH A BROAD TROF CENTERED
NEAR THE ATLANTIC COAST.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
FOR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY SKY TRENDS AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE
MAIN CONCERN WITH A DRY WAA REGIME DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL U.S.
TONIGHT...STRATUS OVER THE CWFA LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE
MOVING EAST WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED OVER THE AREA BY LATE THIS
EVENING. AREAS EAST OF THE RIVER WILL STILL BE IMPACTED BY THE
LIGHT FLOW NEAR THE OHIO VALLEY SURFACE RIDGE...BUT SHOULD HAVE CLOUD
COVER FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER SUNSET. THIS SHOULD
PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM CRASHING THIS EVENING. BY THE TIME THE
CLOUDS MOVE OUT THE GRADIENT SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP SOME
MIXING GOING...SO RAISED OVERNIGHT LOWS A COUPLE OF DEGREES. TO
THE WEST SKIES SHOULD BE CLEAR MUCH OF THE NIGHT AND HAVE RELIED
ON MIXING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM BOTTOMING OUT. THERE IS ALSO
SOME CONCERN THAT THE STRATUS OVER SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL START TO
SPREAD NE AFTER SUNSET. HAVE YET TO FIND ANY MODEL DATA TO SUPPORT
THIS...BUT ON THE OTHER HAND...THE 12Z RUNS WERE NOT CAPTURING THE
SHALLOW MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WITH THE HIGH DEGREE OF
UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING THESE CLOUDS WILL KEEP OUT OF THE FORECAST
FOR NOW. PROVIDED THE STRATUS THREAT DOES NOT MATERIALIZE
TONIGHT...THE LOW LEVEL WAA SUNDAY ALONG WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
SHOULD PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 30S WITH LOW 40S POSSIBLE IN THE
SOUTH.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING IN
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO WESTERN IOWA
BY MONDAY MORNING. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR DRIZZLE OR FREEZING
DRIZZLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE WEST. MONDAY WITH THE ATMOSPHERE
PROGGED TO SATURATE TO AROUND 700MB AND A S/W MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION....INCLUDED A MENTION OF LIGHT RAIN ALONG WITH DRIZZLE. BY
12Z MONDAY SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH TO DROP THE
MENTION OF FREEZING PRECIPITATION. ..DLF..

LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY...
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...THE ECMWF/GFS/DGEX ARE SIMILAR IN
FLATTENING OUT AND MOVING AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE EAST TO THE GREAT
LAKES ON TUESDAY. THIS WAVE COULD PRODUCE DRIZZLE OR POSSIBLY
FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY NIGHT AND BEFORE ENDING TUESDAY MORNING.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MID/LONG RANGE MODELS PROG A CLOSED LOW NOW
ANCHORED OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA TO FILL AND BE KICKED TO THE
NORTHWEST AS A FAIRLY STRONG LONG WAVE TROF. THIS WAVE WILL BEGIN
SPREADING RAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL
CONTINUE TROUGH THURSDAY. THERMAL PROFILES SHOW THE PRECIPITATION
MAY BEGIN AS A RAIN SNOW MIX WEDNESDAY MORNING...PRIMARILY IN
LOCATIONS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80...BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL RAIN AS
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM RAISES SURFACE
TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 40S. WET SNOW MAY ALSO MIX IN WITH THE
RAIN BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION ENDS ON THURSDAY NIGHT AS COLDER AIR
WRAPS AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...LONG RANGE MODELS FORECAST BOTH DAYS TO BE DRY
AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILD ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE 20S WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE TEENS. ..KUHL..

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL

1152 AM CST FRI DEC 9 2011

.AVIATION...
VFR TAF CYCLE UNDERWAY AT ALL TERMINALS AS STRONG AND COLD HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL WAVE CONTINUING TO ROLL ACRS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF IA
THIS AFTERNOON WILL PRODUCE PASSING SCT-BKN AC AT LEVELS MAINLY 6K
FT AGL AND HIGHER ACRS MLI AND ESPECIALLY BRL THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON BEFORE THESE SITES CLEAR OUT AGAIN. SOME LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES POSSIBLE IN THE VCNTY OF BRL THIS AFTERNOON BUT MORE
LIKELY SOUTHWEST OF THAT TERMINAL. PREVAILING NORTHWEST SFC WINDS
AROUND 10 KTS WILL BECOME LIGHT WESTERLY AFTER SUNSET AS THE
SFC RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. ..12..

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CST FRI DEC 9 2011/

.SYNOPSIS...
AREA RADARS AT 08Z INDICATED A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW EXTENDING ROUGHLY
FROM FAIRFIELD THROUGH THE QUAD CITIES TO STERLING. THIS WAS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN AXIS OF FRONTOGENESIS NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT
THAT HAS SETTLED WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND
RECENT SNOWFALL MEASUREMENT OF .7 INCHES HERE AT DVN...IT APPEARS
THAT A WIDESPREAD .5 TO 1 INCH SNOWFALL EVENT HAS OCCURRED FOR
ROUGHLY THE AREA SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. THE FRONTOGENESIS WAS BEING
TRIGGERED BY BOTH A MID LEVEL IMPULSE ROUNDING THE BASE OF A
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER NORTH CENTRAL U.S...AND THE ENTRANCE REGION TO
A 150 KT JET CORE EXITING TO THE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES
INTO EASTERN CANADA. AT THE SURFACE...THE COLD FRONT REACHED FROM
CENTRAL OK NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN MO TO SE LOWER MI. TO THE
NORTH...A RIDGE EXTENDED FROM A 1030 MB HIGH OVER EASTERN MT
SOUTHEAST ACROSS NEB INTO KS. UNDER THIS RIDGE...TEMPERATURES WERE
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS...WITH A FEW SUBZERO READINGS
DIRECTLY UNDER THE HIGH CENTER IN AREAS WITH DEEPER SNOWCOVER.

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
INITIAL FOCUS IS THE SNOW ENDING THIS MORNING...THEN TEMPERATURES AS
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS AN ARCTIC AIRMASS INTO THE AREA BY
TONIGHT. LATEST RADAR TRENDS HAVE SHOWN A GENERAL WEAKENING TREND IN
THE SE TO NE BAND OF SNOW AS HAS TRANSITIONED E-SE OVER THE PAST
COUPLE HOURS. THIS ALIGNS WELL WITH THE RUC MODEL TRENDS INDICATING
RAPIDLY WEAKENING FRONTOGENESIS BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z AS THE PRIMARY
MID AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING EXITS THE AREA. THIS...ALONG WITH AWIPS
DISTANCE-TIME TOOL SUGGESTS THE AXIS OF ACCUMULATING WILL LIKELY BE
OVER BY 12Z OVER THE AREA WITH FLURRIES FOR AN HOUR OR TWO TO FOLLOW
SOUTHEAST OF A KEOKUK TO GALESBURG LINE. LATEST MODELS SUGGEST A
SECOND WEAK VORT MAX AND AXIS OF MID LEVEL QG FORCING DROPPING
SOUTHEAST OUT OF SD INTO S CENTRAL IA BY 18Z. THIS WILL LIKELY BE
ENOUGH TO KEEP CLOUDS IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTH...BUT WITH A DEEP
DRY LOW LAYER IN PLACE BY THIS TIME...WILL MENTION ONLY FLURRIES FOR
ROUGHLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 34 THIS MORNING. TO THE NORTH...SKIES
SHOULD CLEAR BY MID MORNING...BUT WITH THE COMBINATION OF COLD
ADVECTION...REINFORCED BY FRESH SNOWFALL...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH
TEMPERATURE RECOVERY AND HAVE HELD HIGHS IN THE 20S.

TONIGHT...A 1035 PLUS HIGH CENTER SETTLES INTO MO WITH THE RIDGE
AXIS REACHING NORTH ALONG THE MS RIVER BY 12Z. THIS...ALONG WITH
UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE...A COLUMN OF DRY AIR...AND FRESH ALBEIT
SHALLOW SNOW COVER...SHOULD LEAD TO A BITTER COLD NIGHT. USING A
COMBINATION OF FORECAST 850 MB TEMPERATURES...AND UPSTREAM TRENDS
FROM TONIGHT...HAVE STAYED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST MINS FROM THE
SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...TO AROUND 10 IN THE FAR SOUTH. LATER SHIFTS MAY BE ABLE TO
FINE TUNE THIS ONCE THE EXTENT AND COVERAGE OF TONIGHT/S SNOWFALL
CAN BE ASSESSED AND TAKE INTO ACCOUNT. ..SHEETS..

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY...
DRY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES INTO THURSDAY...A MODERATE RAIN
EVENT LIKELY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

OVERVIEW...INITIALIZATION AND VERIFICATION GOOD WITH DRY UPSTREAM
RIDGING SUPPORTING LITTLE SENSIBLE IMPACTS UNTIL NEXT THURSDAY. THE
DAY 7 SYSTEM/S ENERGY IS IN THE WESTERN PACIFIC WITH LITTLE PROBLEMS
NOTED THAT WOULD GREATLY IMPACT RAIN EVENT LATE WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT
THURSDAY. PREFERENCE FOR DAY 7 EVENT IS CLOSER TO HI-RES ECMWF AS GFS
APPEARS TOO MOIST AND THUS PRODUCING TOO HIGH PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.
TOOLS AND TECHNIQUES SUGGEST MOSTLY .25 TO .75 INCH AMOUNTS FOR THE
AREA. THESE AMOUNTS SHOULD BE BETTER ASCERTAINED NEXT 24-48 HOURS.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SUPPORTS FAIR SKIES
AND COLD WITH WIDE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES WITH MINS ON LOW SIDE
AND MAX TEMPS ON THE HIGHER SIDE. TEMPERATURES MODERATING TO ABOVE
NORMAL BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SOUTH WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF NEXT WEAK
AND DECAYING FRONT APPEARS MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE. HAVE LEFT SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS OF A MIX OR MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW BUT LATER SHIFTS MAY BE
ABLE TO REMOVE POPS IF TOO MOIST BIAS IS CONFIRMED. HIGHS MAY REACH
40 DEGREES CERTAIN AREAS WITH ENOUGH SUNSHINE FOR LATER SHIFTS TO
CONSIDER.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...SLOW WARMING TREND CONTINUES AS SW CONUS UPPER
LOW STARTS TO MOVE INTO PLAINS WITH MODERATE WAA ON SOUTH WINDS
IMPACTING AREA BY MID/LATE WEDNESDAY PM. MOSTLY FAIR SKIES TO GIVE
WAY TO LOTS OF MID/HI CLOUDS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES TO
AVERAGE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS TO
BECOME MODERATE SOUTH WINDS AS DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. ALL IN ALL...
REASONABLY NICE WEATHER FOR MID DECEMBER. HIGHS MAY REACH INTO THE
MIDDLE 40S FAVORED SOUTHERN LOCATIONS IF ENOUGH SUNSHINE AND BL
MIXING OCCURS WEDNESDAY PM. PRECIPITATION TO OVERSPREAD AREA LATE PM
AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH GOOD WAA AS DISTURBANCE ROTATES
NE WITH SURFACE LOW PASSING TO OUR NW. SPEED OF SYSTEM AND SHEARING
FROM OPENING OF CLOSED SOUTH PLAINS UPPER LOW SUGGESTS 3-6 HOURS OF
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN. MOST AREA RAIN AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO TOTAL
25-.50 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED .75+ INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE NEAR TRIPLE
POINT AND ANY POTENTIAL DEFORMATION ZONE.

THURSDAY...UPPER LOW/S SLOWER PROGRESS SUGGESTS ANOTHER SEASONABLY
MILD DAY WITH RAIN ENDING BY MID DAY WITH LIMITED COOLING BEHIND
FRONT AS UPPER TROUGH STAYS TO THE WEST. TRENDS SUGGEST THIS UPPER
DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOW AND PHASE WITH FURTHER NW TRACK
NEXT 48 HOURS. ..NICHOLS..

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL

529 AM CST FRI DEC 9 2011

.AVIATION...
AS OF 5 AM...THE AXIS OF SNOW AND MVFR CONDITIONS HAD PUSHED
SOUTHEAST OF ALL TERMINALS. CLEARING SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. AS THE RIDGE MOVES IN...NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT WESTERLY.
..SHEETS..

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CST FRI DEC 9 2011/

SYNOPSIS...
AREA RADARS AT 08Z INDICATED A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW EXTENDING ROUGHLY
FROM FAIRFIELD THROUGH THE QUAD CITIES TO STERLING. THIS WAS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN AXIS OF FRONTOGENESIS NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT
THAT HAS SETTLED WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND
RECENT SNOWFALL MEASUREMENT OF .7 INCHES HERE AT DVN...IT APPEARS
THAT A WIDESPREAD .5 TO 1 INCH SNOWFALL EVENT HAS OCCURRED FOR
ROUGHLY THE AREA SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. THE FRONTOGENESIS WAS BEING
TRIGGERED BY BOTH A MID LEVEL IMPULSE ROUNDING THE BASE OF A
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER NORTH CENTRAL U.S...AND THE ENTRANCE REGION TO
A 150 KT JET CORE EXITING TO THE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES
INTO EASTERN CANADA. AT THE SURFACE...THE COLD FRONT REACHED FROM
CENTRAL OK NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN MO TO SE LOWER MI. TO THE
NORTH...A RIDGE EXTENDED FROM A 1030 MB HIGH OVER EASTERN MT
SOUTHEAST ACROSS NEB INTO KS. UNDER THIS RIDGE...TEMPERATURES WERE
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS...WITH A FEW SUBZERO READINGS
DIRECTLY UNDER THE HIGH CENTER IN AREAS WITH DEEPER SNOWCOVER.

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
INITIAL FOCUS IS THE SNOW ENDING THIS MORNING...THEN TEMPERATURES AS
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS AN ARCTIC AIRMASS INTO THE AREA BY
TONIGHT. LATEST RADAR TRENDS HAVE SHOWN A GENERAL WEAKENING TREND IN
THE SE TO NE BAND OF SNOW AS HAS TRANSITIONED E-SE OVER THE PAST
COUPLE HOURS. THIS ALIGNS WELL WITH THE RUC MODEL TRENDS INDICATING
RAPIDLY WEAKENING FRONTOGENESIS BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z AS THE PRIMARY
MID AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING EXITS THE AREA. THIS...ALONG WITH AWIPS
DISTANCE-TIME TOOL SUGGESTS THE AXIS OF ACCUMULATING WILL LIKELY BE
OVER BY 12Z OVER THE AREA WITH FLURRIES FOR AN HOUR OR TWO TO FOLLOW
SOUTHEAST OF A KEOKUK TO GALESBURG LINE. LATEST MODELS SUGGEST A
SECOND WEAK VORT MAX AND AXIS OF MID LEVEL QG FORCING DROPPING
SOUTHEAST OUT OF SD INTO S CENTRAL IA BY 18Z. THIS WILL LIKELY BE
ENOUGH TO KEEP CLOUDS IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTH...BUT WITH A DEEP
DRY LOW LAYER IN PLACE BY THIS TIME...WILL MENTION ONLY FLURRIES FOR
ROUGHLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 34 THIS MORNING. TO THE NORTH...SKIES
SHOULD CLEAR BY MID MORNING...BUT WITH THE COMBINATION OF COLD
ADVECTION...REINFORCED BY FRESH SNOWFALL...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH
TEMPERATURE RECOVERY AND HAVE HELD HIGHS IN THE 20S.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY...
DRY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES INTO THURSDAY...A MODERATE RAIN
EVENT LIKELY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL

330 AM CST FRI DEC 9 2011

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY...
DRY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES INTO THURSDAY...A MODERATE RAIN
EVENT LIKELY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...SLOW WARMING TREND CONTINUES AS SW CONUS UPPER
LOW STARTS TO MOVE INTO PLAINS WITH MODERATE WAA ON SOUTH WINDS
IMPACTING AREA BY MID/LATE WEDNESDAY PM. MOSTLY FAIR SKIES TO GIVE
WAY TO LOTS OF MID/HI CLOUDS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES TO
AVERAGE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS TO
BECOME MODERATE SOUTH WINDS AS DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. ALL IN ALL...
REASONABLY NICE WEATHER FOR MID DECEMBER. HIGHS MAY REACH INTO THE
MIDDLE 40S FAVORED SOUTHERN LOCATIONS IF ENOUGH SUNSHINE AND BL
MIXING OCCURS WEDNESDAY PM. PRECIPITATION TO OVERSPREAD AREA LATE PM
AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH GOOD WAA AS DISTURBANCE ROTATES
NE WITH SURFACE LOW PASSING TO OUR NW. SPEED OF SYSTEM AND SHEARING
FROM OPENING OF CLOSED SOUTH PLAINS UPPER LOW SUGGESTS 3-6 HOURS OF
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN. MOST AREA RAIN AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO TOTAL
.25-.50 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED .75+ INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE NEAR TRIPLE
POINT AND ANY POTENTIAL DEFORMATION ZONE.

.AVIATION...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PRODUCING A BAND OF SNOW FROM SOUTHEAST
IOWA INTO NORTHWEST ILLINOIS WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION BY
SUNRISE. IFR CONDITIONS AT MLI AND BRL WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY 13Z.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR WITH CLEARING SKIES THROUGH THE REST OF
TODAY AND TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. ..SHEETS..

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

SHEETS/NICHOLS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WICHITA KS

545 PM CST SAT DEC 10 2011

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU

VERY TOUGH FORECAST WITH MOST MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. AREA OF IFR CONDITIONS APPEARS TO BE EXPANDING
ONCE AGAIN...AND BELIEVE THIS WILL LIKELY PERSIST OVERNIGHT. RUC
IS CLOSEST...AND IT SUGGESTS CONTINUE EXPANSION OVER ENTIRE AREA
THROUGH 0900 UTC. GIVEN TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS...1-3SM BR
LIKELY DURING THE NIGHT AT MOST LOCATIONS...ALTHOUGH KCNU
CONCEIVEABLY COULD GO LIFR IN FOG. BOTH NAM/GFS SUGGEST INFLUX OF
850MB-700MB MOISTURE MID TO LATE MORNING...WHICH WILL LIKELY KEEP
MANY AREAS OVERCAST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. EXCEPTION MAY BE
SOUTHEAST KS ONCE AGAIN...BUT DO EXPECT MOISTURE TO ARRIVE THERE
BY LATE AFTERNOON. IF THE 850MB-700MB MOISTURE ARRIVES PRIOR TO
BURNING THROUGH THE IFR DECK...SITES COULD BE STUCK IN IFR
THROUGHOUT MOST/ALL DAY. -HOWERTON

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM CST SAT DEC 10 2011/

DISCUSSION...

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE STRATUS/FOG TONIGHT INTO SUN...THEN CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FOR TUE THROUGH THU.

TONIGHT:
SFC WINDS HAVE GRADUALLY SHIFTED AROUND TO THE SW TODAY AS THE UPPER
FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL. THIS RETURN FLOW HAS ALSO ADVECTED IN A LOW
CLOUD DECK FROM THE PANHANDLE OF TX/OK INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KS...WITH
THIS LOW CLOUD DECK EXPECTED TO BE PROBLEMATIC THIS EVE/TONIGHT.
NONE OF THE SHORT TERM MODELS ARE HANDLING THIS CLOUD DECK
WELL...BUT NOT REAL SURE WE WILL SEE THIS DECK DISSIPATE MUCH
OVERNIGHT...AS WEAK WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA..WITH
LITTLE OR NO MIXING. COULD ALSO SEE SOME PATCHY FOG ASSOCIATED WITH
IT...AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED UNDER THE CLOUD DECK..SO
WILL MENTION THIS AS WELL.

SUN-MON:
FAIRLY CERTAIN STRATUS DECK WILL BE AROUND ON SUN...WHICH WILL KEEP
MAX TEMPS DOWN SOME...BUT WEAK WARM ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO TEMPS A
LITTLE WARMER THAN TODAY. NAM/WRF AND GFS SEEM TO HAVE A LITTLE
BETTER HANDLE ON CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE DRIZZLE/FOG FOR SUN
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CEN KS. WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON
TEMPS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70...AS THIS AREA MAY SEE TEMPS HOVER NEAR
FREEZING...WHICH COULD LEAD TO FREEZING DRIZZLE THREAT. FOR NOW
THINK WEAK WARM ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPS JUST ABOVE FREEZING AND
ALL LIQUID. CERTAINLY LOOKS LIKE A GREY COOL DAY FOR MOST AREAS ON
SUN INTO MON. COULD ALSO SEE SOME OF THIS DRIZZLE REMAIN ACROSS MOST
OF CEN KS EARLY ON MON AS WELL.

TUE-THU:
MODELS STILL DIFFER ON HOW THE SHORTWAVE...THAT WILL BE CENTERED IN
THE SW US...WILL LIFT OUT INTO THE PLAINS FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN STICKING WITH
THEIR DIFFERING SOLUTIONS. WITH THE ECMWF MORE PROGRESSIVE...WHILE
THE GFS IS DEEPER/STRONGER AND HAS MORE NEGATIVE TILT AS IT COMES
INTO THE PLAINS. WITH THAT SAID...THE LATEST ECMWF MY BE TRENDING
TOWARDS THE FURTHER SOUTH GFS SOLUTION. TIMING OF THE SYSTEM IN THE
TWO MODELS SEEMS TO BE THE THING THEY AGREE ON THE MOST...WITH THE
CONTINUED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN AND WARM ADVECTION EXPECTED TO
LEAD TO A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN FOR MOST OF THE AREA TUE. THE MAIN
PRECIP SHOW STILL LOOKS TO BE ON WED...AS SYNOPTIC LIFT FROM THE
MAIN SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH LOTS OF LIFT
AND MOISTURE AROUND FOR A SOLID SHOWER CHANCE...FOR MOST AREAS. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ACROSS SRN/SERN KS AS
THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH...WITH ALL THE PRECIP IN THE FORM OF
LIQUID. SYSTEM WILL MAKE ITS WAYS TO THE EAST OF THE AREA FOR LATE
WED NIGHT WITH COLDER AIR FILTERING INTO THE AREA FOR THU.

REST OF THE EXTENDED:
SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND WILL PLAY
OUT...WITH THE GFS DROPPING A COLD CANADIAN AIRMASS INTO THE AREA.
BUT THE ECMWF SHOWS QUITE A BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE AREA FOR
FRI...WHICH COULD LEAD TO A LIGHT SNOW CHANCE. MODEL CONSENSUS
SUGGESTS KEEPING THIS CHANCE IN FOR NOW.

KETCHAM

AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU

IFR CIGS CONTINUE TO IMPACT MUCH OF THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
AND RECENT SATELLITE TRENDS SUPPORT THIS AREA EXPANDING TO INCLUDE
ALL TERMINALS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KCNU. BY 20-21Z...LOW CLOUDS MAY
START TO BECOME SCATTERED BUT MVFR/IFR MAY RAPIDLY RETURN THIS
EVENING WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AND VERY LOW TEMPERATURE-
DEWPOINT SPREADS. THE LATEST HRRR SUPPORTS MAINTAINING LOW CIGS
AND REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND UPCOMING
AMENDMENTS MAY BECOME NECESSARY AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES.

MCGUIRE

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 26 46 35 49 / 0 10 10 10
HUTCHINSON 26 44 34 50 / 0 10 10 10
NEWTON 26 43 35 47 / 0 10 10 10
ELDORADO 27 45 35 47 / 0 10 10 10
WINFIELD-KWLD 27 47 35 49 / 0 10 10 10
RUSSELL 23 43 34 47 / 0 10 10 10
GREAT BEND 24 45 34 48 / 0 10 10 10
SALINA 25 46 35 48 / 0 10 10 10
MCPHERSON 26 44 34 48 / 0 10 10 10
COFFEYVILLE 27 48 33 46 / 0 10 10 10
CHANUTE 26 46 34 45 / 0 0 10 10
IOLA 26 45 34 45 / 0 0 10 10
PARSONS-KPPF 26 47 34 45 / 0 0 10 10

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DODGE CITY KS

515 PM CST SAT DEC 10 2011

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE...

MODELS THIS AFTERNOON DOING A POOR JOB WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FIELDS ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS BASED ON THE MOST RECENT
OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGE. RUC40 AND HRRR DOES APPEAR HAVE
A SLIGHTLY BETTER HANDLE ON THE LINGERING STATUS, FOG, AND SURFACE
DWPTS SO WILL LEAN TOWARDS THESE MODELS IN THE REDEVELOPMENT OF
FOG/STATUS LATER THIS EVENING AS LIGHT SOUTH SOUTHWEST WINDS
CONTINUE. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT THE BETTER CHANCES FOR
DENSE FOG WILL BE NEAR AND NORTHEAST OF A DDC AND GCK LINE SO WILL
BEGIN LOWERING VSBYS/CIGS HERE AFTER 03Z WITH IFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING BY OR SHORTLY AFTER 06Z. -RB

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 PM CST SAT DEC 10 2011/

DISCUSSION...

DAYS 1-2...

ANOTHER ROUND OF FREEZING FOG IS POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT AS MOISTURE
IS TRANSPORTED FROM THE SOUTH AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES DIP TOWARDS
THE DEW POINT TEMPERATURE. OTHERWISE EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH. A DRY UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TOMORROW STRENGTHENING SURFACE LEE
TROUGHING ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 15 TO
25 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH SOME GUSTS OVER
35 MPH. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA
TOMORROW ALLOWING STRATUS TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR
FORECAST AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL BE FOUND
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TOMORROW NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE BROUGHT UP FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. A
COLD FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA IN THE MORNING
AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE ACROSS
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL DIP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S WITH HIGHS TOMORROW IN THE LOWER
TO MID 40S. LOWS TOMORROW NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S WITH
HIGHS ON MONDAY RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S NORTH TO LOWER 50S ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

DAYS 3-7...

IN THE MEDIUM RANGE, AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES THERE WILL BE A LARGE
SCALE UPPER PRESSURE LOW FORM OUT NEAR ARIZONA BY TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE ECMWF, GFS, AND GEM MODELS ALL SHOW THIS UPPER LOW. THE UPPER
LOW IS PROGGED TO BE NEAR SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO BY 18Z WEDNESDAY.
A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY CROSS SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA ON
TUESDAY, THEN GET PUSHED BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. A
SURFACE LOW SHOULD FORM IN SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS TUESDAY NIGHT, IN
RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW IN COLORADO. THAT LOW WILL
FORM A COLD FRONT TRAILING BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST, WHICH WILL PLOW
EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH OUR CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH ALL THIS SAID,
WILL BRING IN 20 POPS SHOWERS ON TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT DIPS
SOUTH, THEN RAISE POPS INTO THE 40 PERCENT RANGE TUESDAY NIGHT IN
OUR EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA, BUT 20-30 POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW OR
FREEZING DRIZZLE IN OUR NORTHWEST, AS LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE UPPER
20S NEAR THE SYRACUSE TO SCOTT CITY AREA. ON WEDNESDAY THE BIGGER
SHOW WILL ARRIVE AS THE WARM FRONT PUNCHES NORTH AND THE UPPER
SYNOPTIC LIFT CROSSES OVERHEAD WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SHORT WAVE.
THE CREXTENDED PROCEDURE LOADED 60 POPS IN OUR SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY
WHERE THE MOISTURE WILL BE HIGHEST, 30-40 CHANCE POPS FROM WAKEENEY
TO DODGE TO LIBERAL, AND LOWER 20 POPS IN OUR FAR WEST. THE
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS LOOK CLOSE, SO IN OUR EAST AND SOUTHEAST, PUT
IN A PRECIPITATION TYPE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE HIGHEST QPF WILL BE
WEDNESDAY AS WELL, WITH 0.40 INCH AMOUNTS IN OUR SOUTHEAST. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE COMING TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY
NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW AND FRONT BOTH EXIT TO OUR EAST.

COLD AIR WILL THEN BE IN PLACE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH AN
UPPER TROUGH PASSING EASTWARD TO THE NORTH OF OUR CWA. THERE COULD
BE SOME LIGHT SNOW IN OUR EXTREME NORTHWEST LATE THURSDAY NIGHT,
THEN THE SLIGHT CHANCE WILL EXIST A BIT FARTHER SOUTHEAST INTO THE
LARNED, DODGE CITY TO LIBERAL AREAS. THIS SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT
SNOW, AND NOT ACCUMULATE AT ALL, THUS THE LOW 20 POPS. THAT UPPER
TROUGH WILL MOVE TO THE PRATT/MEDICINE LODGE AREAS BY FRIDAY NIGHT,
AND 20 POPS WILL BE IN OUR EXTREME EAST.

TEMPERATURES WILL START WITH MAX T`S TUESDAY FROM 37F IN OUR NW TO
49F IN OUR SOUTHEAST. WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH A
WARM FRONT AND SYNOPTIC SCALE PRECIPITATION AROUND. MAX TEMPS WILL
RANGE WED FROM 46F TO 56F. BY FRIDAY, ONLY EXPECT HIGHS FROM 31F TO
40F, AND SATURDAY EVEN COLDER WITH HIGHS FROM 34F TO 37F. MIN T`S
WILL START TUESDAY IN THE 24F-35F RANGE, WARM TO 30F-43F RANGE
WEDNESDAY, THEN PROGRESSIVELY COOL TO SAT MINS IN THE 16F-23F RANGE.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 26 43 36 48 / 0 10 10 10
GCK 25 42 32 44 / 0 0 0 10
EHA 26 42 28 47 / 0 0 0 10
LBL 26 43 34 48 / 0 0 0 10
HYS 25 42 34 43 / 0 10 10 10
P28 27 45 37 52 / 0 10 10 20

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

FN42/12/12

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

1058 AM MST FRI DEC 9 2011

.DISCUSSION...
249 AM MST FRI DEC 9 2011

FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL EXTENT OF FOG THIS MORNING AND POSSIBLY
SATURDAY MORNING...TEMPERATURE FORECAST INTO THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL
NOT BE EASY BASED ON RECENT HORRIBLE PERFORMANCE...AND STORM FOR THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SATELLITE CONTINUING TO SHOW AN AMPLIFIED FLOW
FROM THE PACIFIC INTO EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. TROUGHS OVER THE
WESTERN PACIFIC AND OVER NORTH AMERICA HAVE BEEN DEEPENING OVER THE
LAST 24 HOURS.

AT JET LEVEL MODELS WERE TOO FAR SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE JET AXIS
PUSHING THROUGH WESTERN MONTANA. THE NAM WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER
THAN THE OTHER MODELS. ALL THE MODELS WERE DOING FINE AT MID
LEVELS. THE ECMWF WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE NAM WITH THE
SURFACE PRESSURE AND WIND FIELD. IT WAS CAPTURE THE TROUGHING ALONG
THE FRONT RANGE WELL PLUS IT WAS DOING BETTER WITH THE SURFACE
RIDGING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS EXTENDING TO THE NORTHWEST. MAKES
SENSE WITH WERE THE JET IS AS WELL. ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD
THE GFS WAS DOING SLIGHTLY BETTER THAN THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF.
BOIVER WOULD SUPPORT FOR THIS WEEK AS WELL.

TODAY/TONIGHT...LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF STRONG NORTH TO SOUTH JET
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM AROUND 18Z THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
SATELLITE IS SHOWING A THICKENING/SOUTHWARD MOVING MID DECK AND IT
APPEARS TO BE TIED TO THE MID/UPPER JET. SO THERE LOOKS TO BE SOME
MID CLOUDS ON TOP OF WHATEVER STRATUS WE HAVE AROUND AS WELL. WILL BE
MONITORING TRENDS AS LONG AS POSSIBLE BUT SOME COVERAGE OF FREEZING
FOG WILL BE NEEDED AT LEAST THROUGH MID MORNING.

THEN HOW FAST CLOUDS CLEAR OUT WILL BE A BIG DETERMINER ON HOW WARM
IT WILL GET. TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL ALSO BE COMPLICATED BY THE
REMAINING SNOWFIELD WHICH WAS HARD TO MONITOR DUE TO CLOUD COVER.
BUT DUE TEMPERATURES BEING 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN ADVERTISED
YESTERDAY...THERE WAS SOME MELTING. THERE IS A CENTRAL CORRIDOR
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST...ROUGHLY FROM GOODLAND TO MCCOOK AND
OBERLIN WHERE THE DEEPEST SNOW COVER RESIDES. ON EITHER SIDE OF
THIS LITTLE TO NO SNOW IS IN PLACE. WITH THE DWINDLING SNOW COVER
AND LAST FEW DAYS PERFORMANCE...THE NAM IS BEING OVERLY AFFECTED BY
THE SNOW IT STILL THINKS IS ON THE GROUND. MAV/GFS 2 METER HAS BEEN
A LITTLE BETTER BUT STILL HAS SHOWN A COOL BIAS.

LATEST SATELLITE SHOWS THE STRATUS FIELD EXPANDING SOUTH RAPIDLY AND
NOT AS FAST ON THE WEST END. THE RUC IS CAPTURING THE STRATUS FIELD
THE BEST WITH THE GFS NOT TOO FAR BEHIND. SAYING THIS...THESE WOULD
INDICATE THAT THE SOUTHEAST THIRD TO HALF MAY KEEP SOME KIND OF LOW
CLOUD COVER THE REST OF THE DAY. ALSO THE WIND FIELD LOOKS TO BE
BLOWING FROM THE SNOWFIELD TO THE SOUTHEAST. ALL THAT SAID MAY LOWER
MAXES A LITTLE BIT WITH THE THINKING THAT THE SOUTHEAST WILL BE THE
COOLEST.

THE 00Z NAM IS PRODUCING A WIDE AREA OF NOT ONLY FOG BUT DENSE FOG BY
LATER TONIGHT. THE 06Z NAM HAS MOVED THIS AREA FURTHER NORTH.
COMPARED TO OTHER MODEL OUTPUT IT IS BY FAR THE MOST AGGRESSIVE.
CONSIDERING THOUGH THAT THE RUC AND GFS ARE SLOW IN REMOVING MORNING
STRATUS...THE RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY NOT BE THAT FAR AWAY.
THERE WILL BE LIGHT WINDS AND PROBABLY LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER TO
PREVENT RADIATIONAL COOLING TO CONTINUE. ALSO CONSIDERING THE LIGHT
WIND FIELD...THE AIR MASS WILL NOT CHANGE THAT MUCH. CONSIDERING HOW
THE WIND AND SNOW FIELD IS...WHAT THE NAM IS SHOWING NOT OUT OF THE
REALM OF POSSIBILITY SO INSERTED FOG INTO THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT.

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...AFTER THE MORNING STRATUS AND FOG BURN OFF
SHOULD BE A LOT OF SUN. LIGHT DOWNSLOPE WINDS TRANSITION TO A MORE
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. CONSIDERING THAT NOT MUCH MELTING WILL OCCUR
TODAY LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE SNOWFIELD MAY HAVE A HARD
TIME WARMING UP A LOT. THERE CONTINUES TO BE A HUGE DIFFERENCE IN
HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR THIS DAY. AT THIS TIME WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
NEAR THE MAV/GFS 2 METER/ECMWF WHICH SEEM TO HAVE BEEN WORKING THE
BEST.

LOW LEVEL JET/WARM AIR ADVECTION LOOK TO START PICKING UP DURING THE
NIGHT. THIS SHOULD TRANSPORT MOISTURE BACK NORTH. NOT SOLD ON ANY
FOG BUT MORE THAN ONE MODEL WOULD INDICATE STRATUS TO MOVE BACK INTO
THE SOUTHEAST HALF. SO WILL MAKE THAT AREA WARMER.

SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF NEW SOUTHERN JET
APPROACHES THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE
DAY. SOME JET LIFT WILL BE NEAR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA
DURING THE NIGHT. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME STRATUS WILL OUT IN THE
EAST MOST OF THE MORNING AT THE VERY LEAST. WINDS WILL TEND TO BE
SOUTH TO SOUTH SOUTHEAST. THAT LOOKS REASONABLE CONSIDERING THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. IN FACT THE WINDS MAY BE ENOUGH SOUTHEAST.
CONTINUED HUGE DIFFERENCES IN MODEL OUTPUT. NO MATTER WHICH OUTPUT
YOU CONSIDERING...THEY ALL SHOW A COOLING TREND FROM SATURDAY TO
SUNDAY WHICH IS A LITTLE DISTURBING. AGAIN WILL PLAY IT
CONSERVATIVE AND KEEP TEMPERATURES SIMILAR AND NOT RAISE THEM MUCH
IF ANY.

AGAIN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...
STRATUS AND POSSIBLY SOME FOG WILL SURGE BACK INTO THE AREA.

THANKS TO ALL THAT COLLABORATED.

BULLER

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE
EVOLUTION OF THE TROUGH FROM THE WEST COAST TO THE HIGH PLAINS BY MID
WEEK. MODELS ARE TRENDING THE TROUGH FURTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS WHICH WILL GIVE US A BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER
THE MODELS DISAGREE HOW FAR NORTH THE TROUGH WILL TRACK AND HOW FAST
IT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. CURRENTLY WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE
THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIP. GENERALLY THE EASTERN CWA WILL HAVE
A BETTER SHOT AT PRECIP. AS THE TROUGH MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA. STILL UNSURE ABOUT THE PHASE OF THE PRECIP. GENERALLY LOOKS
TO BE A RAIN AND SNOW MIX IN THE MORNING...FOLLOWED BY PREDOMINANTLY
RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON THEN TRANSITIONING TO SNOW OVERNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO DIFFICULT TO NAIL DOWN DUE TO THE DIFFERING
TRACKS OF THE TROUGH AMONG THE MODELS. GENERALLY LOOKS TO BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AFTER THAT.

JTL
&&

.AVIATION...
1056 AM MST FRI DEC 9 2011

FOR THE 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON AT BOTH
TERMINALS. A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AFTER 00Z WITH REGARD TO
FOG/LOW STRATUS POTENTIAL. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A GRADUAL LOWERING
OF DEWPOINTS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH MOS GUIDE NOT DEPICTING
ANY REDUCTIONS IN VIS OR CIGS. HOWEVER...WITH CONTINUED SNOW MELT THIS
AFTERNOON CONTRIBUTING TO A MOIST LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY LAYER...WITH VERY
LIGHT WINDS AND LITTLE SKY COVER INITIALLY THIS EVENING...PERSISTENCE
WOULD INDICATE THAT TEMPS SHOULD QUICKLY DROP TO NEAR DEWPOINTS BY 02Z-
04Z RANGE WITH VIS REDUCTION/LOW CIGS AS OCCURRED YESTERDAY EVENING.
FOR NOW WILL LOWER VIS TO MVFR LEVELS WITH A SCT LIFR DECK TO INDICATE
IFR AND EVEN SUB-IFR POTENTIAL.

050
&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

449 AM MST FRI DEC 9 2011

.DISCUSSION...
249 AM MST FRI DEC 9 2011

AGAIN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...
STRATUS AND POSSIBLY SOME FOG WILL SURGE BACK INTO THE AREA.

THANKS TO ALL THAT COLLABORATED.

BULLER

JTL
&&

.AVIATION...
431 AM MST FRI DEC 9 2011

VFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE 12Z TAFS.
CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW FOG/LOW STRATUS MOVING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE LOW STRATUS
AND FOG LOOK TO BE DEFINED BY A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST.
HRRR...SREF...AND RUC MODELS SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD HAND ON THE
LOCATION OF THE FOG AND STRATUS. CURRENT THINKING HAS A BRIEF
PERIOD OF LOWER VIS FOLLOWED BY VIS AND CEILING IMPROVING FOR KMCK
BY LATE MORNING. CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS WINDS TURN TO THE NORTHWEST. THE CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR
OUT BY EVENING. AM SOMEWHAT CONCERNED THE MODELS MAY BE HANGING
ONTO THE LOW CEILING AND VIS TOO LONG JUDGING BY POSITION OF THE
EDGE OF STRATUS ON SATELLITE. BUT DO SEE SOME ADDITIONAL STRATUS
DEVELOPING OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO SO WILL LEAVE FORECAST AS IS.
FOR KGLD THE WEST WINDS HAVE KEPT CONDITIONS MVFR. CLIMO HAS SOME
LOW CEILINGS/VIS DURING THE EARLY MORNING...AND SURROUNDING SITES
HAVE LOWER VIS AND CEILING SO PLACED A TEMPO GROUP IN DURING THE
MORNING IN CASE WINDS CALM BRIEFLY. WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
AROUND 18Z SO CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT SHORTLY AFTER THAT.

JTL
&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

249 AM MST FRI DEC 9 2011

.DISCUSSION...
249 AM MST FRI DEC 9 2011

AGAIN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...
STRATUS AND POSSIBLY SOME FOG WILL SURGE BACK INTO THE AREA.

THANKS TO ALL THAT COLLABORATED.

BULLER

JTL
&&

.AVIATION...
1112 PM MST THU DEC 8 2011

PREVAILING IFR CONDITIONS WITH OCCASIONAL TRANSITIONS TO MVFR AND
LIFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT BOTH KMCK AND KGLD THROUGH THE
NIGHT WITH AN EVENTUAL TRANSITION TO VFR AT KGLD BY 13Z AND KMCK
BY 15Z AS DRYER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST.

LOCKHART
&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TOPEKA KS

250 AM CST FRI DEC 9 2011

.DISCUSSION...

SHORT RANGE FORECAST (TODAY AND SATURDAY)...

AT 8Z LIGHT SNOW IN RESPONSE TO SOME LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WAS
WINDING DOWN ACROSS FAR NORTHEASTERN KANSAS AS THE AREA OF 850 MB
FRONTOGENESIS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST. NO ACCUMULATION ASIDE FROM A
DUSTING OF SNOW ALONG THE FAR NORTHEAST CORNER OF KANSAS AND
SOUTHEAST CORNER OF NEBRASKA WAS REPORTED FROM THESE LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS. A SURFACE RIDGE WHICH EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN KANSAS
NORTHWARD TO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS WILL ALLOW LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW
AND SUBSEQUENT COLD AIR ADVECTION INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS.
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE A FAIRLY SHALLOW
STRATUS LAYER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE SLOWLY
DISSIPATING THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT OF THE AMPLE CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY AND THE WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION
INTO THE AREA HAVE OPTED TO GO ON THE LOWER SIDE OF THE MET/MAV
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE FOR FRIDAY`S HIGH TEMPS. WITH SKIES CLEARING OUT
BY EVENING AND WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE BECOMING MORE CENTERED OVER
NORTHEAST KANSAS EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE A BIT COOLER ON
SATURDAY MORNING THAN FRIDAY MORNING...ONCE AGAIN OPTING FOR THE
LOWER END OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE FOR SAT MORNING
LOWS...ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING AREAS AND RIVER VALLEYS. FOR
SATURDAY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW WARMER AIR TO TRICKLE INTO THE
AREA AND WILL WORK IN CONJUNCTION WITH A WEAKLY AMPLIFIED 500 MB
RIDGE TO BRING A GRADUAL WARMING TREND TO NORTHEAST KANSAS FOR
THIS WEEKEND.

MID-RANGE AND EXTENDED FORECAST (SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...

EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK AS WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL ALLOW FOR SOME MODEST ISENTROPIC ASCENT...AND BE
SOMEWHAT ENHANCED BY A QUICKLY MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH WILL
PASS THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD EXPECT THE ASCENT TO BE WEAK AND MOISTURE
TO BE SHALLOW ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE ANY MENTION OF ACCUMULATING
PRECIP.

BY MID WEEK A DEEPLY AMPLIFIED SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL DIG
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE PACIFIC COASTLINE AND EJECT EASTWARD. AS IT
CROSSES THE DESERT SOUTHWEST IT WILL TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT WHICH
WILL CAUSE THE TRAJECTORY OF THE UPPER LOW TO TAKE MORE OF A EAST-
NORTHEAST COURSE AS IT TRAVERSES THE CENTRAL PART OF THE U.S.
EXPECT WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOWERS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 12Z ON
WEDNESDAY...THEN INCREASE IN INTENSITY ONCE THEY BEGIN ON
WEDNESDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE DEEP ENOUGH SATURATION TO
WARRANT CONCERN FOR PERIODS OF MODERATE RAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA ON WEDNESDAY. GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE SOME MODEST ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO WILL INTRODUCE SOME ISOLATED
THUNDER FOR THE HEAVIER SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY. THE SYSTEM LOOKS TO
BE FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE AND ECMWF/GFS AGREE ON A QUICK EXIT OF THE
SYSTEM BY THURSDAY MORNING. AS OF NOW THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST
THIS EVENT WILL BE PRIMARILY RAIN...WITH SOME RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM AS COLD AIR FILTERS INTO NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL NAIL DOWN MORE SPECIFICS REGARDING THE
TIMING AND ANY POSSIBLE PRECIP TYPES OF THE SYSTEM AS IT
APPROACHES.

.AVIATION...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE WITH THE CIGS OVERNIGHT. OBS UPSTREAM
INDICATE A NARROW BAND OF IFR CIGS INITIALLY...BUT CIGS IMPROVE TO
VFR DEEPER INTO THE STRATUS ACROSS EASTERN NEB. RH PROGS FROM THE
NAM AND RUC AT 925MB SHOW A SATURATED LAYER REMAINING OVER THE
TERMINALS THROUGH THE MORNING. THEREFORE WILL KEEP AN PREVAILING
MVFR CIGS UNTIL 18Z WITH A TEMPO IFR FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR CIGS TO IMPROVE BEFORE NOON FRIDAY. RADAR
TRENDS AND MODEL OUTPUT CONTINUE TO POINT TOWARDS PRECIP REMAINING
TO THE NORTH SO WILL NOT MENTION AN PRECIP AT THIS TIME.

WOLTERS

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DODGE CITY KS

1131 PM CST THU DEC 8 2011

.UPDATE...

.AVIATION /FOR THE 06 UTC TAF ISSUANCE/

FOG IS RAPIDLY DEVELOPING ALONG A CORRIDOR FROM ABOUT DDC THROUGH
GCK AND WESTWARD TO THE COLORADO LINE. THIS IS PARTIALLY DUE TO
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING AND ALSO SURFACE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE.
FOLLOWING THE RAPID RUC REFRESH MODEL, THE FOG WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE ADVECTING SOUTHWARD AS THE
STRATUS THICKENS ACROSS THE AREA. THEREFORE ALTHOUGH VISIBILITIES
MAY IMPROVE ACROSS THE AREA, CATEGORIES MAY STILL REMAIN IN THE
IFR/LIFR CATEGORIES THROUGH ABOUT 15 UTC OR SO.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 PM CST THU DEC 8 2011/

DISCUSSION...

DAYS 1-2...

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY WILL
PROGRESS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST BY FRIDAY. ALL OF THE DEEP MOISTURE
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS WELL TO OUR NORTHEAST. AHEAD AND WELL SOUTH OF
THIS SYSTEM THERE IS A WEAK SURFACE LOW THAT IS PARTLY FORCED BY
DOWNSLOPE FLOW OVER THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. A WEAK COLD FRONT
WAS SITUATED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS TONIGHT AS THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY
FROM OUR FORECAST AREA AND SINCE ISENTROPIC LIFT IS FORECAST TO BE
MINIMAL. HOWEVER, AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS, THE
BOUNDARY LAYER IS PROGGED TO MOISTEN UP AND COOL OFF SIMULTANEOUSLY.
THIS COULD LEAD TO WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY AREAS
OF FREEZING FOG. BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST FREEZING FOG DEVELOPMENT
AS THE TEMPERATURE DROPS WITH THE DEWPOINT.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. SOLAR HEATING WILL GRADUALLY ERODE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG BY
MID-MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE ABOUT THE SAME AS
TODAY, WITH THE COOLEST READINGS OVER THE SNOW COVERED AREAS ALONG
AND NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM SYRACUSE TO ELLIS. THE NAM IS A LITTLE
COOLER FOR DODGE CITY, BUT THIS MAY BE A RESULT OF ITS SNOW COVER
FIELD BEING TOO FAR SOUTH. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CAN BE EXPECTED
FRIDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL LINGER ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES.

THE MID TO UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL BY SATURDAY. THIS
OFTEN RESULTS IN LEE TROUGHING, WEAK DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND A
WARMING TREND. HOWEVER, THIS WILL BE A SLOW PROCESS AS SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE VALUES ARE STILL PROGGED TO BE AROUND 1030-1032MB EVEN BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED HIGH TEMPERATURES
BETWEEN 40 AND 45F FOR SATURDAY STILL LOOK ON TRACK.

DAYS 3-7...

THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS 00Z SUNDAY. SOUTHWEST KANSAS WILL BE IN
SPLIT FLOW AT THE END OF THE WEEKEND (IN BETWEEN AN ACTIVE NORTHERN
AND SOUTHERN BRANCH JETS). WITH THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, WE WILL SEE
LEE SURFACE TROUGHING ACROSS COLORADO. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOUTHERLY
WINDS AT THE SURFACE WITH NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES (MAINLY 40S DEG
F) FOR HIGHS.

ON MONDAY, A WEAK NORTHERN SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL USHER IN THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT IS NOT VERY STRONG AND THE COLD
AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT IS FAIRLY WEAK. AS A RESULT, THE
FORECAST WILL BE DRY AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER EXCEPT
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ZONES DUE TO A LATER IN THE DAY FRONTAL PASSAGE.

FOR TUESDAY, MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS AND WE SHOULD SEE
A RETURN TO LEE SURFACE TROUGHING. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE
SLIGHTLY WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE
ATMOSPHERE MOISTENING FROM TOP DOWN TUESDAY EVENING SO WE SHOULD SEE
MORE CIRRUS.

THE FORECAST BECOMES MORE INTERESTING WEDNESDAY AS A RELATIVELY
STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS LOOKS LIKE
A RAIN EVENT FOR MUCH SW KANSAS. THE MODELS ARE INDICATING SLIGHTLY
COOLER AIR AT 850 HPA THAN COMPARED TO YESTERDAY SO WOULD NOT RULE
OUT SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION. RIGHT NOW THE FORECAST IS OF LOW
CONFIDENCE. THIS IS ALSO TOWARDS THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD SO
WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION TYPE AS RAIN IN CASE THE MODELS WAFFLE BACK
TO A WARMER SOLUTION. TEMPERATURES COULD FLIRT WITH THE 50 DEG F
MARK WEDNESDAY AS SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS ARE
ADVECTED IN FROM AN OPEN GULF OF MEXICO. THERE ARE STILL SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF SO THE FORECAST WILL LIKELY
CHANGE WITH TIME. REGARDLESS, THE SIGNAL IS THERE FOR SOME
PRECIPITATION MIDWEEK ACROSS KDDC COUNTRY. -SUGDEN

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 19 41 17 44 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 17 36 16 42 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 19 35 17 44 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 20 42 20 44 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 17 35 14 41 / 10 0 0 0
P28 22 41 16 46 / 10 0 0 0

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

FN99/99

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TOPEKA KS

1114 PM CST THU DEC 8 2011

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
SEE PREV DISCUSSION.

WOLTERS

.PREV DISCUSSION... /530 PM CST THU DEC 8 2011/
THE 18Z FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE RUC/NAM/GFS ALL SHOW MID LEVELS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE DRYING OUT AFTER 03Z TONIGHT. BECAUSE OF THIS
THERE MAY NOT BE ANY ICE CRYSTALS WITHIN THE CLOUD WHICH WOULD BRING
IN THE POSSIBILITY FOR A LIGHT FREEZING MIST OR DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT.
FORTUNATELY THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH LIFT WITHIN THE CLOUD
FOR DRIZZLE TO FORM. SO ANY PRECIP THAT FALLS OVER NORTHEAST KS LATE
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE LIGHT...BUT THERE IS A SMALL
PROBABILITY FOR SOME VERY LIGHT FREEZING PRECIP INSTEAD OF SNOW.
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.

WOLTERS

/309 PM CST THU DEC 8 2011/
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ON CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS DOWN INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. CURRENT RADAR TRENDS INDICATE WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST. LIGHT
SNOW HAS BEEN FALLING FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA
WHERE ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 3 INCHES HAVE BEEN REPORTED. RADAR TRENDS
HAVE THE SOUTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY ENTERING
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

DRY LOW LEVELS WILL GRADUALLY SATURATE AS THE WAVE APPROACHES THE
REGION AS LOW LEVEL VERTICAL MOTION AND LIFT AHEAD OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OCCURS. WITH THE ENTIRE VERTICAL PROFILE BELOW ZERO AND
SOME MOISTURE IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION EXPECT THE DOMINANT
PRECIPITATION TYPE TO BE SNOW. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN IN NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST.
HOWEVER...AS SOON AS THE LOW LEVEL SATURATE THE VERTICAL MOTION
DISSIPATES. THE SUITE OF 12Z MODELS HAVE TRENDED FARTHER TO THE
NORTH WITH THE BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT REMAINING PRIMARILY OVER
NEBRASKA. HOWEVER...STILL EXPECT SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA WHERE THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF
UP TO HALF AN INCH OVER PORTIONS OF THE CWA ALONG THE NEBRASKA
BORDER. PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END ACROSS THE CWA
BEFORE SUNRISE WITH A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES LINGERING
INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL EVENTUALLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE CWA ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE CONTINUES TO
MOVE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. COLD AIR ADVECTION ON THE WESTERN SIDE
OF THE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL KEEP
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE CWA.

ANDERSON

CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WITH SURFACE HIGH EXITING KANSAS
SUGGESTS FRIDAY NIGHT COULD BE QUITE COLD...BUT MOISTURE LOOKS DEEP
ENOUGH TO KEEP STRONG NEAR-GROUND INVERSIONS IN CHECK.
CONVERSELY...WINDS MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH ALOFT TO KEEP FOG AT
BAY...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION
REGIME KICKS IN SATURDAY FOR TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE FRIDAY.
SLOWLY RETURNING SOUTHERN PLAINS MOISTURE AND WINDS STAYING UP WILL
PROVIDE A MUCH WARMER SATURDAY NIGHT THAN FRIDAY NIGHT AS WELL. LOW
LEVELS MOISTEN ENOUGH FOR SOME LOW CLOUD RETURN IN AT LEAST WESTERN
AREAS SUNDAY ON SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE
ON A WEAK WAVE MOVING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY FOR
POSSIBLE SHOWER ACTIVITY...BUT LACK OF GOOD DEPTH OF MOISTURE UNDER
RELATIVELY WARM TEMPS ALOFT SUGGESTS KEEPING THESE PERIODS DRY.

MAIN WEATHER FEATURE OF NOTE FOR THE LATER PERIODS CONTINUES TO BE
THE UPPER LOW AND ITS TRAJECTORY AND TIMING FOR THE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY PERIODS. RUN-TO-RUN AND MODEL-TO-MODEL CONSISTENCY IS
STILL LACKING...EVEN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND HARD TO GO TOO HIGH
ON PRECIP CHANCES AT THIS POINT. GIVE THE LARGE CONSISTENCY
PROBLEMS...ITS NOT SURPRISING TO SEE GFS ENSEMBLES SHOWING HIGH
UNCERTAINTY WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES DURING THE MOST LIKELY PRECIP
TIMES...AND WILL KEEP PRECIP TYPE FORECAST RATHER BROAD AT THIS
POINT...BUT SOME FROZEN OR FREEZING PRECIPITATION COULD MATERIALIZE
IN MAINLY NORTHERN AND WESTERN LOCATIONS.

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PITTSBURGH PA

313 PM EST FRI DEC 9 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER SOME SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT...EXPECT DRY AND
COLD WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
WILL NOT COME UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LINE OF LIGHT RADAR RETURNS FROM SNOW SHOWERS CAN BE SEEN MOVING
STEADILY TO THE EAST ACROSS WESTERN OHIO AND EASTERN INDIANA. MODEL
STILL DO NOT SHOW MUCH DEEP MOISTURE WITH THE SYSTEM. HOWEVER...4KM
HI-RES WRF NMM AND HRRR RUNS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT SHOWING A 3-6 HOUR
WINDOW OF SNOW SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH DURING THE EVENING. HAVE
INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY DURING THE EVENING HOURS NORTHWEST OF THE
RIDGES...ALTHOUGH FEEL PRETTY CONFIDENT THAT ACCUMULATION WILL
REMAIN LESS THAN HALF AN INCH. AS ALWAYS...RIDGES AND LOCATIONS OF
I-80 WILL RECEIVE SLIGHTLY MORE ACCUMULATION. THINK THAT MOST
SNOWFALL SHOULD BE OUT OF THE REGION BY SUNRISE SATURDAY...WITH
ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS REMAINING ACROSS THE RIDGES AS THE COLD FRONT
COMPLETES ITS PASSAGE ACROSS THE REGION. COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL RESULT IN THE COLDEST HIGH TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS
SEASON...WITH MOST LOCATIONS REMAINING BELOW FREEZING ALL DAY.

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEATHER WILL BE VERY QUIET DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OVER THE EAST COAST...AND
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PREVENT ANY LAKE EFFECT OR UPSLOPE SHOWERS
FROM OCCURRING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE THE COLDEST OF THE
SEASON...WITH ALL LOCATIONS DROPPING IN THE TEENS. IF ENOUGH
RADIATIONAL COOLING OCCURS ALONG THE SNOWPACK IN THE RIDGES...TEMPS
HERE COULD REACH THE SINGLE DIGITS. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE
DURING THE PERIOD...WITH A RETURN TO NORMAL HIGHS BY MONDAY.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PER HPC GUIDANCE, FAVORED RECENT ECMWF MODEL OUTPUT WITH SOME NAEFS
INFLUENCE. THESE MODEL SOLUTIONS MAINTAINED THE IDEA THAT THE UPPER
LEVEL JETSTREAM ACROSS THE U.S. WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL DURING THE
COMING WEEK. HENCE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS
THIS PERIOD, WHICH IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY GFS MOS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS INTO TUESDAY. A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE MAY PROVIDE SOME SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A BETTER DEVELOPED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY
PROVIDE A SECOND BOUT OF SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY INTO
POSSIBLY EARLY FRIDAY. NAEFS MODEL OUTPUT SUGGESTS SOME INJECTION
OF NORTHWEST FLOW ENERGY NEXT WEEKEND WHICH WOULD RESULT IN COLDER
TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEKEND.

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RECENT SURFACE, SATELLITE, AND RADAR DATA, ALONG WITH RECENT HRRR
AND NAM MODEL OUTPUT, SHOW A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS EVENING THAT
WILL RESULT IN FLIGHT CONDITIONS QUICKLY DETERIORATING TO MAINLY
MVFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS. BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE,
PARTICULARLY NORTH, WITHIN THE I-80 CORRIDOR, AT TAF SITES SUCH AS
KFKL AND KDUJ.

BY 06Z FOR TAF SITES SOUTH OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR, SNOW SHOWERS WILL
DISSIPATE, AND LINGERING STRATOCUMULUS CEILINGS WILL LIFT TO VFR
LEVELS. WITHIN THE I-80 CORRIDOR, COLD WESTERLY WINDS CAN INDUCE
SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WHICH CAN CAUSE MVFR STRATOCUMULUS
AND BANDS OF SCATTERED IFR SNOW SHOWERS TO LINGER INTO SATURDAY
MORNING.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
VFR INTO TUESDAY. COLD FRONTAL SHOWERS OF SNOW AND RAIN CAN CAUSE
RESTRICTIONS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

625 PM EST SAT DEC 10 2011

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAFS

.SYNOPSIS...

12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW PROGRESSIVE WRN
RDG/ERN TROF PATTERN OVER NAMERICA. 12Z H85 TEMPS RANGE FM -18C AT
APX TO 7C AT GLASGOW MT. STRONG SFC-H85 SW FLOW OVER THE NRN PLAINS/
UPR MS RIVER VALLEY BTWN HI PRES IN THE OH VALLEY AND LO PRES NEAR
LK WINNIPEG IS CAUSING WAD AND ALLOWING THE UPR RDG TO BUILD TO THE
E PER 00Z-12Z 100-200M H3 HGT RISES OBSVD TO THE E OF THE UPR RDG
AXIS. THE BACKING LLVL FLOW TO SW OVER THE CWA HAS PUSHED THE SHSN
THAT WERE IMPACTING THE KEWEENAW AND AREAS E OF MUNISING OUT INTO
THE OPEN LK. THE STRONG WAD HAS ALSO CAUSED AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF MID
CLD STRETCHING FM LK WINNIPEG INTO THE UPR GRT LKS/UPR MS VALLEY
WELL APPROXIMATED BY THE HIER RH DEPICTED FM H8-6 ON THE 12Z INL
RAOB AND ON THE NAM 285K ISENTROPIC SFC. HOWEVER...DRY NATURE OF THE
LLVLS PER LARGE SFC-H85 DWPT DEPRESSIONS AND UPSTREAM 12Z RAOBS AS
WELL AS LACK OF ANY OTHER FORCING MECHANISM UNDER THE UPR HGT RISES
IS PREVENTING ANY PCPN EXCEPT OVER FAR NE MN. FARTHER TO THE W...THE
ADVECTION OF MUCH WARMER AND DRIER AIR SHOWN ON THE 12Z BISMARCK
RAOB IS PUSHING THE WRN EDGE OF THE MID CLD STEADILY TO THE E THRU
MN.
&&

.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION /TNGT AND SUN/...

MAIN FCST CONCERNS DURING THIS RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD WL BE TEMPS
IN WAD PATTERN THAT WL DOMINATE.

TNGT...STRONG WARM/DRY ADVECTION WITH WSW H925-85 FLOW WL DISSIPATE
LINGERING LO/MID CLD SW-NE AS MODELS SHOW STEADILY RISING H85 TEMPS
AND LOWERING RH...INDICATING THE WAD IS BEING MANIFEST AS HORIZONTAL
ADVECTION/EROSION OF COLD AIR AND NOT UPWARD MOTION OVER THE COLD
DOME. IN FACT...NAM/GFS SHOW H85 TEMPS REACHING 7C AT IWD BY 12Z.
ANY PCPN WL BE OVER THE NE HALF OF LK SUP MAINLY THIS EVNG... AND
THIS WL DIMINISH WITH TIME. ALTHOUGH THE DEEPER COLD AIR WL BE
RETREATING...SUSPECT POCKETS OF NEAR SFC COLD AIR WL BE MORE
RESILIENT OVER THE INTERIOR. SO TENDED TOWARD THE LO END OF GUIDANCE
IN THESE AREAS. THE WARMEST LOCATIONS ARE LIKELY TO BE IN THE
DOWNSLOPE AREAS NEAR LK SUP.

SUN...THE CWA WL BE DOMINATED BY THE WARM...DRY WSW FLOW BTWN HI
PRES SINKING INTO THE OH VALLEY AND LO PRES CROSSING NW ONTARIO.
LOOKING UPSTREAM...SKIES ARE MOSUNNY AS THE DRY AIRMASS SHOWN ON THE
12Z BISMARCK RAOB IS DOMINATING. WITH H85 TEMPS FCST TO BE ABOUT
7C...EXPECT TEMPS TO RECOVER WELL ABV NORMAL. HOWEVER...EXACTLY HOW
HI TEMPS CAN RISE WL BE TRICKY WITH RESIDUAL ARCTIC AIR LIKELY TO BE
LINGERING NEAR THE SFC. CONSIDERING THE HI STABILITY SHOWN ON FCST
SDNGS AS WELL AS LO SUN ANGLE...TENDED TOWARD THE LOWER END OF
GUIDANCE. ONCE AGAIN...EXPECT THE HIEST TEMPS ARND 40 IN THE
DOWNSLOPE AREAS NEAR LK SUP WHERE ANY LINGERING NEAR SFC COLD AIR IS
MOST LIKELY TO BE ERODED.

.LONG TERM /00Z MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY/...

A WEAK SFC TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES THROUGH
PART OF THE CWA FROM LATE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. MODELS ARE IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS AND BRINGING AN UPPER SHORTWAVE OVER
THE CWA MONDAY. THE SHORTWAVE COMBINED WITH ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL
BRING PERIODS OF PRECIP TO THE CWA EARLY MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...WITH THE PRECIP TYPE BEING COMPLEX. THERMAL AND MOISTURE
PROFILES WILL BE THE COMPLICATING FACTOR...AND WILL LEAD TO CHANCES
FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE BEFORE SFC TEMPS WARM UP ON MONDAY...BECOMING
CHANCES FOR A RAIN AND SNOW MIX THROUGH TUESDAY THAT WILL BE MORE
DOMINATED BY SNOW OVER TIME AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN FROM N TO S. MID
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SOMEWHAT LACKING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SRN
CWA...WHICH FURTHER LOWERS CONFIDENCE ON PTYPE SINCE MOISTURE WILL
BE MINIMAL IN...ABOVE...AND BELOW THE DGZ.

OVERALL CONFIDENCE DECREASES STARTING WEDNESDAY AS MODELS WAIVER
WITH THE HANDLING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. THE GEM AND ECMWF HAVE BETTER
RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY THAT THE GFS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT ARE
STILL NOT THAT GREAT. USED A MODEL BLEND FROM WEDNESDAY OUT AS
CONFIDENCE IN ANY MODEL OR SET OF MODELS IS JUST TOO LOW.

LARGE SCALE PATTERN WISE...MODELS SEEM TO HAVE THE SAME GENERAL
IDEA. A 500MB LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE ACTIC CIRCLE FROM WEDNESDAY TO
HUDSON BAY THURSDAY AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE
INTO THE NWRN CONUS FROM THE NRN PACIFIC. THIS WILL KICK A DEEP
500MB LOW ALREADY IN PLACE OVER SRN CA INTO THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE UPPER LOW WILL WEAKEN TO A WEAK TROUGH AND MOVE UP THE E
SIDE OF A NEW DEEP TROUGH OVER THE W CENTRAL CONUS...WITH THE
SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE CWA DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THURSDAY.
MODELS IN THE PAST WERE SHOWING THE UPPER SYSTEM MOVING OVER AS A
DEEPER CLOSED LOW...BUT HAVE BEEN TRENDING WEAKER AND IN MORE OF AN
OPEN WAVE ALOFT.

THIS WHOLE PATTERN WOULD RESULT IN MIXED PRECIP MOVING INTO THE CWA
ON WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVE OVER WITH ISENTROPIC ASCENT
ALSO HELPING OUT. THEN AS THE UPPER TROUGH TROUGH MOVES THROUGH
THURSDAY...A CLOSED SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE OVER OR NEAR THE
CWA. THE ECMWF AND GEM BRING THE SFC LOW RIGHT ALONG THE SERN EDGE
OF THE CWA...WHILE THE GFS MOVES IT OVER FARTHER SE OVER CENTRAL
LOWER MI. GIVEN A MODEL BLEND...THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE
OVER THE SERN CWA...WHICH IS ALSO WHERE THE CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST WITH THIS SYSTEM IS HIGHEST. PTYPE IS MORE IN
QUESTION...BUT WOULD LEAN TOWARD A RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER THE SERN CWA
AND MORE SNOW OVER THE NWRN CWA. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS SOMEWHERE IN THE REGION...BUT THAT IS HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM. IF THE SYSTEM MOVES SOMEWHERE
BETWEEN THE TRACKS SHOWN BY THE GFS AND ECMWF...IT WOULD BE A
TYPICAL TRACK FOR HEAVY SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS WA TOO LOW TO PINPOINT THAT AT THIS TIME.

THE SFC LOW EXITS EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE W FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY...AS 850MB TEMPS FALL TO AOB -15C. WITH W-NW
WINDS...LES WOULD APPEAR A LIKELY RESULT...BUT MOISTURE...WIND
DIRECTIONS AND OTHER FINICKY ENGREDIENTS WILL HAVE TO BE SORTED AS
TIME GOES ON.
&&

.AVIATION /FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

.STRONG WAA HAS CAUSED A BAND OF MID CLOUDS AND SNOW TO TRAVERSE THE
AREA. AS CLOUDS MOVE OUT AND DRIER AIR MASS TAKES OVER...EXPECT ALL
3 TAF SITES TO REMAIN VFR FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THE MAIN CONCERN
WILL BE LLWS AT KIWD AND KSAW AS OVERNIGHT INVERSION WILL KEEP
STABLE COLD AIR AT SURFACE AND STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. DAYTIME
HEATING/MIXING TOMORROW WILL ALLEVIATE THE LLWS. HAVE KEPT GUSTS
THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF TAF PERIOD...HOWEVER AS SUN BEGINS TO
SET TOMORROW EVENING...WINDS WILL MOST LIKELY BE CONFINED TO UPPER
LEVELS AGAIN AND LLWS MAY BE NEEDED.
&&

.MARINE /FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE/...

EXPECT INCREASING WSW WINDS TO 30 KTS LATE TONIGHT AND SUN UNDER
SHARPENING PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN HI PRES IN THE OH RIVER VALLEY AND
LO PRES CROSSING ONTARIO. BEST CHANCE FOR MARGINAL GALES TO 35 KTS
WILL BE ON SUN IN THE SWATH OVER THE W BETWEEN ISLE ROYALE AND THE
KEWEENAW...WHERE TERRAIN FUNNELING CAN ENHANCE WSW WIND SPEEDS. BUT
GIVEN HI STABILITY...OPTED TO MAINTAIN JUST MENTION OF GALE FORCE
GUSTS ATTM. WITH A LO PRES TROF/WEAKER GRADIENT SINKING ACROSS LK
SUP ON MON/MON NIGHT...LOOK FOR WINDS TO DIMINISH AND SHIFT TO THE
N. LIGHT WINDS SHIFTING TO THE S WILL THEN BE THE RULE INTO WED AS A
HI PRES RIDGE SLIDES OVER THE LK AND TO THE E. ANOTHER LO PRES WILL
MOVE NE TOWARD THE UPPER LKS ON THU...BUT GALES DO NOT APPEAR LIKELY
ATTM.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...KC
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...JMW
MARINE...KC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO

550 PM CST Sat Dec 10 2011

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...

Brisk southwest winds coupled with abundant sunshine have allowed
afternoon temperatures to climb into the mid to upper 30s across
northeast Missouri to the middle 40s across eastern Kansas and
western Missouri. While gusty conditions are expected to subside this
evening, moderate southwesterly sfc flow is expected to persist
overnight as a sfc low slides across the northern tier of the country
while sfc ridging moves into the Ohio valley. Stubborn stratus has
been slow to erode across southwestern Kansas this afternoon with
models doing a poor job resolving the feature. Uncertainty remains
high as to whether additional stratus will develop overnight and
advect northeastward. There appears to be some support of this idea
from the latest RUC and VSREF outputs after 03-04z. Will hold off on
stratus mention at the moment although may have to be added by later
shifts should stratus development show signs of coming to fruition.

Southerly low level flow will be maintained tomorrow as the
aforementioned sfc low skirts across southern Canada. This coupled
with increasing thicknesses should yield temperatures climbing a few
degrees higher than seen today. By Sunday night, 35-40kt LLJ may
support a few showers across far northwest Missouri as isentropic
ascent increases across this area.

Vigorous upper level trough will begin translating across the
southwestern US during the beginning of the week spreading height
falls across the plains. This will maintain WAA regime Monday and
Tuesday keeping afternoon temperatures in the 40s to near 50
degrees. The amount of warming will likely be offset to some extent by
increasing cloud cover during this time frame. Guidance has come into
better agreement on a lead wave ejecting across the plains during the
day Tuesday bringing the first round of rain the region. Have
increase POPs to the high chance category during the day Tuesday with
likely wording for Tuesday night across portions of central Missouri.

The main upper system then moves into the plains and Midwest on
Wednesday keeping high rain chances in place through Wednesday night. In
addition, sufficient moisture and ascent should be in place for at
least an isolated chance of thunderstorms as well. This system slides
east of the area by Thursday with the next upper trough diving into
the desert southwest by Friday. Uncertainty increases thereafter and
have went with a dry forecast through the remainder of the forecast
to account.

DEROCHE

.AVIATION...

For the 00Z tafs, the weak high pressure system has shifted east
with a return to light south southwest flow. Models suggest VFR
conditions through the period as a weak high pressure ridge builds
across the Central Plains. However, there has been a LIFR stratus
deck in central Kansas, inching to the northeast. The poor December
insolation along with the lack of deep mixing has aided in the
persistent nature of this cloud layer. Have some concern that
nocturnal cooling along with advection may allow this deck to move
into the terminals aft 05Z. For now, will go with VFR conditions but
will amend quickly if trends show otherwise.

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

WFO EAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION

NWS ST LOUIS MO

1140 PM CST THU DEC 8 2011

.UPDATE...
/922 PM CST THU DEC 8 2011/
GOING FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE. LIGHT SNOW HAS BEEN
REPORTED ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND WEST CENTRAL
ILLINOIS WITH SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. RUC CONTINUES TO SHOW WEAK
FRONTOGENESIS BETWEEN 925-850MB UP THERE...WITH ANOTHER AREA OF
FRONTOGENESIS FURTHER NORTHWEST ACROSS IOWA. THIS LARGER AND
STRONGER AREA OF FORCING WILL MOVE DOWN ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSOURI
AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS LATER TONIGHT...BEFORE MOVING EAST AS
THE LOW-MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.

CARNEY

.DISCUSSION...
/335 PM CST THU DEC 8 2011/

TONIGHT...LIGHT SNOW HAS BEEN FALLING ACROSS NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON
IN RESPONSE TO LOW-MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING AND WEAK LARGE
SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE MOVING OUT OF THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS SNOW HAS JUST BEGUN TO SPREAD INTO EXTREME
NORTHERN KANSAS...SOUTHWEST IOWA AND EXTREME NORTHWEST MISSOURI. THE
MAIN QUESTION FOR TONIGHT IS ITS LONGEVITY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
EASTWARD. VIRTUALLY ALL OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SIGNIFICANTLY
BACKED OFF ON THE SOUTHWARD EXTENT OF MEASURABLE SNOWFALL ACROSS
NORTHERN MISSOURI INTO WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS TONIGHT. THERE IS A
GENERAL SUGGESTION THE CURRENT AREA WILL SPLIT INTO TWO BANDS THIS
EVENING...ONE TRANSLATING EASTWARD INTO IOWA AND THE OTHER TRYING TO
SPREAD SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHWEST MISSOURI AND ULTIMATELY OUR CWA. THE
APPARENT PROBLEM IS THIS SOUTHERN BAND ENCOUNTERS RATHER DRY AIR
INTO THE LOWEST 1-2 KM AND STRUGGLES TO MAINTAIN ITS IDENTITY AS IT
MOVES INTO NORTHEAST MISSOURI THIS EVENING. THE DRY AIR SHOULD
CERTAINLY LIMIT ITS SOUTHERN EXTENT AS DEPICTED BY THE MODELS AND
HAVE LOWERED POPS AND ADDED THE MENTION OF FLURRIES CLOSER TO
INTERSTATE 70. FURTHER NORTH...THE FORCING REMAINS STOUT ENOUGH THAT
I THINK IT WILL BE ABLE TO OVERCOME THE DRIER AIR TO PRODUCE LIGHT
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS. THESE SHOULD BE LESS THAN AN INCH AND BE
CONFINED TO THE AREA ALONG AND NORTH OF A SHELBINA-HANNIBAL LINE
WITH A DUSTING POSSIBLE A BIT FURTHER SOUTH OF THIS LINE.

GLASS

BY FRIDAY...FIRST SHORTWAVE TO SLIDE EAST OF FORECAST AREA...BUT
COULD STILL SEE SOME LINGERING FLURRIES...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH
OF I-70 THROUGH MIDDAY. MODELS DO CONTINUE TO SHOW A SECONDARY
SHORTWAVE SLIDING THROUGH FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...SO HAVE HELD BACK CLEARING A BIT AND COULD SEE ANOTHER
ROUND OF FLURRIES WITH THIS SECONDARY WAVE...HAVE LEFT OUT FOR
NOW. AS FOR HIGH TEMPS...WITH NORTH WINDS AND PLENTY OF CLOUD
COVER...TEMPS TO STRUGGLE TO REACH THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S.

SKIES TO CLEAR OUT BY LATE FRIDAY EVENING AND WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS...TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE TEENS MOST LOCATIONS.

BY SATURDAY...SURFACE RIDGE TO BEGIN MOVING OFF TO THE EAST ALLOWING
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO RETURN TO THE REGION. TEMPS WILL SLOWLY MODERATE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL
BE IN THE 30S...THEN INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S BY SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...AND THEN INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S BY WEDNESDAY...JUST
AHEAD OF NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A WEAK
FRONT THAT WILL APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BEFORE
WASHING IT OUT...BUT LITTLE IF ANY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH IT.

BEYOND THAT...A MORE VIGOROUS WEATHER SYSTEM DEVELOPING AND
AFFECTING THE FORECAST AREA BEGINNING ON WEDNESDAY. EXTENDED MODELS
NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE...SLIDING NORTHEAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SHOULD SEE DECENT CHANCES OF PCPN IN THE FORECAST
AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. TIMING AND STRENGTH OF SYSTEM
STILL HARD TO PIN DOWN...SO FOR NOW WILL JUST KEEP CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH PCPN IN THE FORM OF RAIN AS HIGH TEMPS TO
BE IN THE 40S AND 50S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS ABOVE FREEZING.

BYRD

.AVIATION...
/1140 PM CST THU DEC 8 2011/

BAND OF SNOW WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATION STAYED JUST SOUTH OF KUIN
THIS EVENING...THOUGH THERE IS AN ADDITIONAL AREA OF SNOW MOVING
ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI. WILL KEEP LIGHT SNOW GOING THROUGH THE
NIGHT AT KUIN WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH 12Z.
STILL LOOKS LIKE ONLY FLURRIES FARTHER SOUTH AT KSTL/KSUS. THERE
ARE IFR CEILINGS AT KIRK CURRENTLY...AND HAVE LEFT MVFR CEILINGS
GOING AT KUIN...BUT STILL THINK CEILINGS WILL REMAIN VFR FARTHER
SOUTH AT KCOU/KSTL/KSUS. ANY LINGERING SNOW WILL EXIT THE REGION
EARLY ON FRIDAY MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FLURRIES BETWEEN 08-14Z. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY BY EARLY FRIDAY.

BRITT

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

WFO LSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GLASGOW MT

919 PM MST THU DEC 8 2011

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT...
FAST SLIGHTLY CYCLONIC NW FLOW ALOFT...WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE IN
IT CAUSING CLOUDY SKIES AND A FEW SNOWFLAKES THIS EVE. MOIST
LAYER/CLOUDS NOT VERY DEEP. MODELS INDICATE SHORTWAVE TO BE OUT OF
THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT...HRRR MODEL SHOWING WEAK 88D ECHOES ENDING
TOO. WILL LIMIT WEATHER TO JUST SCATTERED EVENING FLURRIES.

CLOUDY SKIES EXTEND WELL UPSTREAM ALONG THE FAST JET THOUGH...BUT
EXPECT IT TO BECOME BROKEN. NE THIRD OF CWA IS CLEAR...BUT WON`T
EXPAND A LOT WEST AND SOUTH. 00Z KGGW SOUNDING SHOWED THE COOLING
OF THE AIRMASS BELOW 700 MB IN THE PAST 24 HOURS...HOWEVER THE
COLD ADVECTION ENDED THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST LOWS LOOK
GOOD...ALREADY A LITTLE BELOW ZERO IN THE CLEAR AREA.

POLAR HIGH PRESSURE HAS FRAGMENTED INTO PIECES...ONE PART OVER NE
MT. MODELS INDICATE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WITH THIS RELAX
OVERNIGHT...SO WHILE A FEW PLACES ARE OVER 10 MPH ON WINDS THIS
EVE...WINDS TO BE ALL UNDER 10 MPH LATER TONIGHT...SO NO
WIND CHILL ADVISORY ISSUED...BUT WEATHER STORY/HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
DESCRIBE IT WELL. SIMONSEN

PREVIOUS SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 500 MB HEIGHT FIELD SHOWING
THE VERY STRONG AND CLOSED UPPER LOW CENTER OVER HUDSON BAY AND
ITS ASSOCIATED LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH SPREADING OVER A LARGE
PORTION OF THE NORTH AMERICAN CONTINENT. JUST RECENTLY THIS
AFTERNOON THE BASE OF THE STRONGER PORTION OF THE LARGE TROUGH HAS
TAKEN ON A STRANGE SQUARISH SHAPE. VERY SLIGHT LARGE SCALE
TROUGHING IS ALSO PRESENT IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN U.S. STATES. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND ITS ASSOCIATED AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE IS GAINING STRENGTH JUST OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
COAST.

LOCALLY...CLOUDS QUICKLY FORMED OVER THE CWA TODAY RIGHT ALONG THE
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WITH CLEARER SKIES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND
CLOUDY SKIES CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST. ENOUGH ASCENT IS PRESENT TO
SET OFF SOME VERY LIGHT VIRGA AND MAYBE SOME FLURRIES AS IS
EVIDENCED BY THE LIGHT RADAR REFLECTIVITIES TODAY. THE HRRR MODEL
HAS BEEN VERY ACCURATE IN DEPICTING THIS ACTIVITY WHEREAS THE
OTHER OPERATIONAL MODEL SOLUTIONS DID NOT BOTHER MUCH WITH IT.
TRIED TO FOLLOW THE TREND OF THIS HRRR MODEL FOR THE VERY NEAR
SHORT TERM THROUGH TONIGHT AS FLURRIES SHIFT SOUTHWEST AND
DIMINISH SOUTHWARD. ALSO...TONIGHT...WIND CHILL VALUES WILL
APPROACH 20 BELOW ZERO AGAIN ESPECIALLY OVER OUR FAR NORTHEAST
ZONES. BUT WITH WINDS FORECASTED BELOW 10 MPH...FELT IT WAS
SUFFICIENT TO ONLY MENTION IT IN THE HWO.

BEGINNING FRIDAY...THE ARCTIC AIR MASS AND HUDSON BAY LOW QUICKLY
GIVE WAY TO THE APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES
FROM THE WEST. HIGHS SHOULD REBOUND EASILY INTO THE MID 20S
CENTRAL AND WELL ABOVE FREEZING OVER OUR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES.
ANOTHER PERIOD OF CLOUDINESS WILL SWEEP OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA ON
FRIDAY BUT I EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION TO REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BOARDER. TRIED TO SHOW THE TREND WITH SOME SILENT
POPS AND SKY COVER.

SATURDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS SOMEWHAT BUT STILL MANAGES TO
MAKE SIGNIFICANT INROADS INTO OUR AREA...BRINGING TEMPERATURES
ABOVE FREEZING TO ALL OF NORTHEAST MONTANA EXPECT THE FAR
NORTHEAST LITTLE CORNER. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND NO PRECIPITATION
TO START THE WEEKEND. BMICKELSON

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
MADE SOME INCREASES WITH POPS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY
MONDAY. A SYSTEM LOOKS STRONGER WITH SOME OF THE MODELS AND
CONSISTENT ON THE ECMWF. ALSO RAISED POPS SLIGHTLY NEAR THE END OF
THE PERIOD CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGY WITH AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE
WESTERN STATES. REST OF FORECAST LOOKED GOOD. JAMBA

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD FEATURES A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND
RIDGES IN A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. LIMITED MOISTURE WITH EACH OF THE
WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL LIMIT PRECIP CHANCES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WITHIN 10 DEGREES OF NORMAL DURING THE WHOLE PERIOD.

AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES TO THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH AN
UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA ON MONDAY. THIS WILL
BRING A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. LOOK FOR
SOMEWHAT COLDER AIR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

SHORTWAVE RIDGE FOLLOWS ON TUESDAY. ECMWF CURRENTLY WARMER THAN
THE GFS WITH THE TEMPERATURES. WILL FORECAST ON THE COLDER SIDE OF
THE POSSIBILITIES FOR NOW GIVEN THAT LIGHT WINDS SHOULD LEAD TO
POOR MIXING WITH LOW LEVEL INVERSIONS TRAPPING COLD AIR AT THE
SURFACE.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
WITH ANOTHER DRY COLD FRONT AND SOMEWHAT COLDER AIR. FORRESTER

.AVIATION...
VFR. CEILINGS WILL GENERALLY DISSIPATE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AREA WIDE THROUGH
THE PERIOD. PROTON

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE

836 PM CST SAT DEC 10 2011

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR INCREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT SRN ZONES.

.DISCUSSION...
LOW CLOUDS IN KANSAS CONTINUE TO PUSH NE AND SATELITTE TRENDS PLUS
LOW LEVEL RH FORECAST FROM HRRR INDICATED FOR THIS TO CONTINUE.
THUS INCREASED SKY GRIDS SRN 1/2 LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. BUMPED UP LOWS A FEW DEGREES SOME AREAS BECAUSE OF CLOUDS
BUT WITH SNOW COVER ANY DECREASE IN WINDS COULD ALLOW THEM TO
QUICKLY FALL PER 02Z LNK OR EARLIER OFF/TQE. CLOUDS ALSO CONTINUE
TO HAVE A BACK EDGE SO DID NOT KEEP SUNDAY MOCLOUDY ALL DAY...WITH
SOME MIXING OR MOVING OUT POSSIBLE BUT THIS WILL BE FURTHER
ADDRESSED WITH OVERNIGHT FORECAST.

.AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS WITH IFR CEILINGS CONTINUE TO ADVANCE NEWD AND NOW
APPEAR LIKELY TO IMPACT KLNK A LITTLE AROUND 07Z AND OMAHA BETWEEN
08Z AND 09Z. AMD TO FOLLOW.

CHERMOK

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 520 PM CST SAT DEC 10 2011/

AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KOMA AND KLNK.

CONTINUED SRLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL ATTEMPT TO PULL IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LATE TONIGHT AND LOW CLOUDS CURRENTLY OVER KS COULD
MAKE IT INTO SERN NEBR BY SUNDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH WITH THE 00Z
FORECAST CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE CEILINGS UNTIL
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHEN CONTINUED LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT +
ADVECTION SHOULD BRING CEILINGS NEAR IFR LEVELS TO TAF SITES. IN
ADDITION...SNOW COVER WILL KEEP STRONGER LOW LEVEL WINDS ABOVE
INVERSION FROM MIXING DOWN WHICH NOT ONLY COULD PROVIDE WIND SHEAR
TO SITES LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...BUT ALSO ALLOW SOME FOG TO
DEVELOP AGAIN. BOTH WERE MENTIONED IN TAF FORECASTS. HOWEVER...IT
APPEARS WITH WINDS A LITTLE STRONGER THAN YESTERDAY VISIBILITIES
SHOULD NOT DROP AS LOW AS LAST NIGHT.

CHERMOK

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 PM CST SAT DEC 10 2011/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE TEMPERATURES AND PATCHY FOG
TONIGHT...THEN INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT
PRECIPITATION AND PRECIPITATION TYPE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES LAST NIGHT REALLY DROPPED OFF AFTER SUNSET WITH THE
LIGHT WINDS AND AGAIN WENT BELOW GUIDANCE. HARD TO SAY HOW COLD
SPECIFIC LOCATIONS WILL GET WITH VARIABLE CONDITIONS AND SNOW
PACK...BUT WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND SOME MELTING DO NOT THINK IT
WILL BE AS COLD...BUT SHOULD AGAIN HAVE SOME PATCHY FOG.

LOW LEVEL STRATUS IN KS AND WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW...WILL
LOOK FOR THIS STRATUS TO RETURN TO NEBRASKA SUNDAY. THE STORM
SYSTEM OVER THE ROCKIES WILL MOVE INTO NEBRASKA DURING THE DAY.
FOR NOW HAVE THE STRATUS COMING IN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS ISENTROPIC
LIFT SATURATES THE 280 DEG SFC. ALSO ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG AS THE
HIGHER DEWPOINTS COME IN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TOUGH WITH
SNOWCOVER AND CLOUDS MOVING IN. HAVE HIGHS MOSTLY FROM 34 TO 38
AND IN THE 40S ACROSS THE SOUTH. OVERNIGHT...CONDITIONS
DETERIORATE WITH MOISTURE DEEPENING AND DRIZZLE/FREEZING
DRIZZLE/LIGHT PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL DEPEND
ON THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE EC/GFS HAVE BEEN TOO WARM ON
TEMPS WITH THE SNOWPACK AND THE NAM WAS BETTER. TENDED TOWARD THE
NAM TEMPS VERSUS WARMER EC/GFS FOR THIS PKG. LOWS ALONG AND NORTH
OF I80 DROP TO FREEZING OR BELOW AND SOUTH OF THIS LINE KEEP LOWS
ABOVE FREEZING. THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION CONTINUES AHEAD OF THE
SURFACE FRONT MONDAY. LINGERED THE PRECIPITATION INTO TUESDAY
ACROSS THE SOUTH AS THE DEEP MOISTURE DOES NOT GET SCOURED OUT AND
THERE IS A SURGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THE MID LEVEL TROF
STILL OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S.

ZAPOTOCNY

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

MAJORITY OF MEDIUM RANGE MODELS LOOK SIMILAR IN MOVING UPPER TROUGH
FROM THE WESTERN U.S. THROUGH THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
HOWEVER ECMWF AND GFS HAVE ONE MAJOR DIFFERENCE THAT CAUSES
DIVERGING SENSIBLE WEATHER SOLUTIONS FOR OUR AREA. WHILE BOTH EJECT
MAIN LOW/TROUGH WITH SIMILAR TIMING...THE GFS DRIVES A SIGNIFICANT
SHORTWAVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AHEAD OF MAIN TROUGH. THIS
FEATURE SUPPRESSES SURFACE LOW TRACK MUCH FARTHER SOUTH...INCLUDING
ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION...AND KEEPS OUR AREA IN COLDER TEMPERATURE
REGIME. THE ECMWF ALSO MOVES A SHORTWAVE INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...BUT ITS WAVE IS MINOR AND PROGRESSIVE WITH LITTLE AFFECT
HERE. WILL FOLLOW THE LEAD OF HPC AND PREVIOUS FORECAST AND SIDE
MORE CLOSELY WITH THE ECMWF SOLUTION.

SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL SPREAD INTO OUR SOUTHERN CWA TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES HOLDING ABOVE FREEZING AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING RAIN THE MOST LIKELY TYPE. RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO THE AREA. COULD
SEE DRY SLOT CLEARING IN THE SOUTH...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO REALLY
CLIMB. AS COLDER AIR SPILLS IN BEHIND EXITING SYSTEM LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY...RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW IS PROBABLE IN OUR
NORTHWEST. HOWEVER WITH PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM...NOT EXPECTING
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL RIGHT NOW. TEMPERATURES WILL SETTLE BACK INTO
THE 30S THURSDAY THEN LIKELY 20S ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER ECMWF SHOWS
A CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHING FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY THAT WILL
TURN WINDS TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST...SO HIGHS FRIDAY COULD BE
EASILY MAKE THE 30S. AND LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY WITH THAT CLIPPER...BUT WILL HOLD OFF MENTION UNTIL SOME
CONSISTENCY BETWEEN VARIED MODEL SOLUTIONS IS REALIZED.

DERGAN

AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KLNK...KOFK.

HIGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT THAT LLWS WILL BE AN ISSUE AT ALL SITES
BEGINNING LATER THIS EVENING. APPEARS THAT WIND SHEAR WILL INCREASE
TO 40-45KT AT FL015 AGL TOWARD 11/03Z...AND PERSIST THROUGH THE END
OF THE FCST PD. OTHERWISE VFR IS EXPECTED FOR THE DURATION OF THE
FCST PD.

DEE

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

99/99

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTH PLATTE NE

1212 PM CST FRI DEC 9 2011

.AVIATION...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DRIFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TODAY. THIS WILL CAUSE WINDS TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS SOUTH OVERNIGHT...LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP. AS FOR SKIES...CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH...BECOMING CLEAR OR A
FEW HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. SOME CONCERN THAT SOME MVFR OR IFR FOG
WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA IN THE MORNING.
NO MOS GUIDANCE SUPPORTS DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER DUE TO THE RECENT
SNOW AND SOME SUN TO MELT PART OF THE SNOW TODAY ALONG WITH LITTLE
WIND TO MIX THE BL...COULD SEE SOME DEVELOPMENT. THIS WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED CLOSELY.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 AM CST THU DEC 8 2011/

DISCUSSION...

LIGHT SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH MID MORNING TODAY.
THE MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN LIGHT AT BEST...WITH MODELS
INDICATING ONLY MINIMAL QPF. THE GFS AND EURO ARE PREDOMINATELY
DRY...BUT BOTH THE NAM AND THE 09.05Z HRRR WOULD INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL OF A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL QPF...WHICH
USING A SNOW RATIO OF 18 TO 1 WOULD YIELD ABOUT A QUARTER TO A
HALF OF AN INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATION. BASED OFF OF RECENT
PERFORMANCE...THE HRRR SOLUTION SEEMS TO BE A GOOD COMPRISE. SO
TRENDED THE FORECAST IN THAT DIRECTION. LIGHT SNOW WILL QUICKLY
END BY LATE MORNING TODAY AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND THE
DISTURBANCE PUSHES EAST. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE THEN WILL SETTLE
ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY STILL LOOK BELOW
AVERAGE...WITH GENERALLY HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S. ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA...WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL HELP LIMIT TEMPERATURES
FURTHER...MID 20S MAY BE AS WARM AS IT GETS...BUT WITH CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...A FEW 30S ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT...WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION TO FOLLOW IN ITS WAKE. HIGHS FOR
SATURDAY MAY BE TRICKY THOUGH...AS SPREAD IN GUIDANCE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON IS RUNNING AS MUCH AS 10 DEGREES OR MORE ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. THE DEGREE OF MIXING BETWEEN BUFR SOUNDING
REVEAL THE REASON FOR THE SPREAD. GENERALLY FOLLOWED A BLEND
APPROACH...WHICH MAY NOT BE THE BEST WAY TO HANDLE THE
SITUATION...BUT USING A BLEND ALLOWS FOR THE SLIGHT WARMUP WHICH
IS EXPECTED. LOOKING GENERALLY AT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID
40S ACROSS THE CWA. MORE OF THE SAME FOR SUNDAY...WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND TEMPERATURES BACK IN THE 40S. THE DEGREE OF MIXING DOES
APPEAR GREATER BY MID AFTERNOON SUNDAY...HOWEVER H85 TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL ABOUT 3C DEGREES...SO LOOKING AT HIGHS A DEGREE OR TWO
COOLER THAN SATURDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY...COOLING TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 30S FOR
HIGHS...AND TEENS FOR LOWS TO START THE WORK WEEK.

THINGS GET INTERESTING BY MID WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA. THE EUROPEAN SOLUTION CONTINUES TO
SHOW A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH WHICH WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
HAVE A STRONG IMPACT ON THE REGION. THE GFS SEEMS TO BE TRENDING
TOWARD THE EURO SOLUTION...BUT STILL SIGNIFICANT TIMING AND
LOCATION DIFFERENCES ARE EVIDENT. BOTH LONG RANGE MODELS DO
HOWEVER SUGGEST THAT THE GULF WILL BE WIDE OPEN...AS LOW 40 TD/S
MAY SNEAK BACK UP ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. IT WOULD BE QUITE POSSIBLE THAT RAIN WOULD BE THE
PRIMARY PTYPE BEFORE A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW LATE IN THE EVENT. WITH
IT BEING MID DECEMBER...WILL CONTINUE THE RAIN SNOW MIX ACROSS THE
EASTERN ZONES...WITH ALL SNOW OUT WEST....BUT AT LEAST THERE/S
PLENTY OF TIME TO HAMMER THIS OUT.

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM/EXTENDED...99
AVIATION...MASEK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTH PLATTE NE

617 AM CST FRI DEC 9 2011

.AVIATION...

FOR THE KLBF AND KVTN TERMINALS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM NORTHEASTERN
NEBRASKA INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY. THIS FEATURE WILL
SPREAD MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION BEFORE IT
EXITS EAST. IN ADDITION TO ABUNDANT MID TO HIGH LEVEL VFR
CLOUDINESS...MVFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY THIS MORNING AT BOTH
TERMINALS. FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80...IFR CEILINGS WITH
SURFACE VSBYS AS LOW AS 3SM ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH MID MORNING. SKIES
WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT WITH VFR CONDS EXPECTED. SURFACE
WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AT UNDER 10 KTS TDY WITH A GRADUAL SHIFT TO
THE WEST AT AROUND 10 KTS TONIGHT.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 AM CST THU DEC 8 2011/

DISCUSSION...

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

SHORT TERM/EXTENDED...JACOBS
AVIATION...CLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTH PLATTE NE

349 AM CST FRI DEC 9 2011

.DISCUSSION...

.AVIATION...

FOR THE KLBF AND KVTN TERMINALS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM NORTHEASTERN
NEBRASKA INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY. THIS FEATURE WILL
SPREAD MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION BEFORE IT
EXITS EAST. IN ADDITION TO ABUNDANT MID TO HIGH LEVEL VFR
CLOUDINESS...MVFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY THIS MORNING AT BOTH
TERMINALS. FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80...IFR
CEILINGS WITH SURFACE VISBYS AS LOW AS 3SM ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH MID
MORNING. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT WITH VFR CONDS
EXPECTED. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AT UNDER 10 KTS TDY WITH A
GRADUAL SHIFT TO THE WEST AT AROUND 10 KTS TONIGHT.

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM/EXTENDED...JACOBS
AVIATION...CLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTH PLATTE NE

1146 PM CST THU DEC 8 2011

.AVIATION...

LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA THROUGH THE DAY ON
FRIDAY...WEST TO NORTHWEST AT LESS THAN 10KTS. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH SOME MVFR OVER EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
FROM KOGA TO KIML. SOME FLURRIES OVER THE DAKOTAS MY MOVE INTO NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA FROM KVTN TO KONL BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH AND HAVE
IN A TEMPO GROUP. GENERAL TREND WITH MODELS INDICATES SKIES OVER
WESTERN NEBRASKA CLEARING OUT AFTER SUNRISE.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM CST THU DEC 8 2011/

DISCUSSION...
BANDED FOLDS OF THETA E AND EPV CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW. THE RUC SUGGESTS THIS SNOW SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE FCST
AREA BY 02-03 UTC THIS EVENING. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE ACROSS ERN MT THIS
AFTN SHOULD SLICE THROUGH NCNTL NEB MAINLY AFTER 06Z TONIGHT THROUGH
15Z FRIDAY. THE NAM...GFS AND GEM SUPPORT THIS SOLN.

WE CONTINUE THE PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS PARTS OF SCNTL AND
SWRN NEB THIS EVENING. AN ARCTIC FRONT CURRENTLY NEAR KTIF WILL MOVE
SOUTH AND WASHOUT PERHAPS DRYING THE MIDLEVEL ALLOWING FOR LOW LEVEL
SATURATION AND FREEZING DRIZZLE.

BEHIND THE SECOND DISTURBANCE TONIGHT ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH WILL BUILD
INTO THE UPPER MISSOURI BASIN AND BE CENTERED OVER WRN SD/ND FRIDAY
MORNING. THIS IS A BIG BREAK FOR THE FCST AREA AS LOWS OF -20F
OCCURRED BENEATH ACROSS WRN CANADA THURSDAY MORNING. THIS HIGH IS
FCST TO DRIFT THROUGH THE FCST AREA FRIDAY PRODUCING CLEAR SKIES AND
COLD WEATHER WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S. BY FRIDAY EVENING...LOW
PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING CNTL CANADA PRODUCING AS WARM WESTERLY
H850MB FLOW WITH H850 TEMPS RISING TO NEAR 0C BY SATURDAY MORNING.
THUS LOWS SHOULD OCCUR AT OR BEFORE MIDNIGHT MOST AREAS AND THEN
WARM.

FOR SATURDAY...WEST AND SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN THE
40S. WINDS TAKE A MORE SOUTHERLY TACK SUNDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. STILL HIGHS SUNDAY
SHOULD RISE INTO THE 40S. A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH MONDAY IS
EXPECTED TO TAKE THE EDGE OFF HIGHS. 30S APPEAR TO BE THE OPERATIVE
MODE.

THE GEM...GFS AND ECM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A SIGNIFICANT SHORT
WAVE TRACKING THROUGH THE CNTL PLAINS WEDNESDAY. TEMPS MIGHT BE WARM
ENOUGH FOR RAIN AS H10-5 THICKNESSES HOVER NEAR 546DAM AND H850MB
TEMPS -3 TO 0C. A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW IS SHOWN EAST WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW WEST. THE GFS AND GEM SHOW EVAPORATIVE COOLING WHILE
THE ECM DOES NOT. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD EXIT WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT DROPPING TOWARD THE FCST AREA.

HYDROLOGY...

A FLOOD WARNING FOR ICE JAMMING HAS BEEN ISSUED ON
THE NORTH PLATTE RIVER AT LEWELLEN. THE FLOOD WARNING WILL
CONTINUE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. WEATHER CONDITIONS FEATURING WARM
TEMPS DURING THE DAYTIME AND SINGLE DIGITS AT NIGHT THIS WEEKEND
COULD CAUSE THE JAMMING TO PERSIST.

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM/EXTENDED...CDC
AVIATION...POWER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BUFFALO NY

1222 PM EST FRI DEC 9 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO POUR OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY
WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW DOWNWIND OF BOTH LAKE ERIE AND
ONTARIO...INTENSIFYING TO MODERATE TO HEAVY LAKE BANDS TODAY.
INITIALLY...THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL IMPACT AREAS NORTHEAST OF THE
LAKES...BEFORE THE WIND SHIFTS AND CAUSE THE SNOW TO SETTLE SLOWLY
TO THE SOUTH LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW WILL WIND DOWN EARLY SATURDAY OFF LAKE ERIE...AND MIDDAY
SATURDAY OFF LAKE ONTARIO AND THEN BE FOLLOWED BY DRY WEATHER ON
SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS OUR REGION.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL ANALYSIS SHOWS WIDESPREAD LIGHT SYNOPTIC SNOW
MOVING OFF INTO CENTRAL NY AS AN UPPER LEVEL JET OVER SOUTHERN
QUEBEC MOVES TO THE MOUTH OF THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER. IR CLOUD TOPS
ARE WARMING WITH SYNOPTIC SNOW WANING. THIS LEAVES A MEAGER AND
QUITE THIN LAKE EFFECT BAND OVER LAKE ERIE AND SOME LINGERING
MOISTURE OVER NIAGARA COUNTY AT 16Z. MORNING AMDAR DATA AND 12Z
SOUNDING DATA INDICATES AN 850MB TEMPERATURE AT AROUND -7C...AND 06
AND 12Z MODEL DATA SHOWS VERY SLOW COOLING...PERHAPS DOWN TO -8C
OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS.

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES NO REAL ENHANCEMENT UPSTREAM OVER LAKE
ERIE...AND WHILE CLE RADAR DOES SHOW SOME WEAK MULTI-BAND
FORMATION... LATEST HRRR AND 12Z GUIDANCE PACKAGES SUGGEST THE
MEAGER BAND WILL WORK ITS WAY SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN ERIE AND OTHER
PORTIONS OF THE NIAGARA FRONTIER...DOWN ACROSS THE SOUTHTOWNS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. AS THE BAND MOVES THROUGH...A 1-3
INCH ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON LOCATION. BUT WITH
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING...AND MINIMAL
INCREASE IN INSTABILITY ALONG WITH NO IMMEDIATE SIGNS OF
INTENSIFICATION...WILL DROP WARNINGS FOR MOST OF THE NIAGARA
FRONTIER EXCEPT FOR NIAGARA COUNTY. OVER NIAGARA COUNTY...WARNING
AMOUNTS MAY STILL BE REALIZED WITH ONGOING SNOW BEFORE THE BAND
MOVES SOUTHWARD.

NO CHANGES FOR AREAS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

FOR TONIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL FOCUS UPON SKI COUNTRY AND THE
WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER ON A WESTERLY FLOW. WINDS STILL WSW ACROSS
LAKE ONTARIO WILL BEGIN THE NIGHT WITH THE BAND ACROSS JEFFERSON AND
TOWARDS THE TUG HILL. AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE NEARS WINDS WILL
VEER TO WNW SHIFTING THE LAKE BANDS EVEN FURTHER SOUTHWARD. OUTSIDE
THE LAKE SNOWS THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL
PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ACROSS THE REGION.

THE ADDED COMPONENT OF UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE AND
THE TUG HILL WILL FOCUS THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL TOTALS HERE OVERNIGHT.
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE AREA AS SNOWFALL TOTALS
MAY EXCEED WARNING THRESHOLDS. WILL WAIT TO SEE HOW SIGNIFICANT THE
LAKE BAND DEVELOPS OFF BOTH LAKES THIS MORNING BEFORE MAKING ANY
DECISIONS FOR THE OVERNIGHT TIME PERIOD.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES HIGHS WILL REACH ABOVE FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE
CWA. INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE GENESEE VALLEY MAY EVEN REACH THE 40
DEGREE MARK EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO FALL. FOR
TONIGHT. LOWS WILL FALL BACK INTO THE 20S.

FOR SPECIFIC SNOWFALL TOTALS...PLEASE SEE BUFWSWBUF OR THE LATEST
GRAPHICS ON OUR WEB PAGE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
LAKE SNOWS WILL BE WINDING DOWN AT THE START OF THIS PERIOD AS A
MASSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MAKE ITSELF RELEVANT
ACROSS OUR REGION. THIS WILL INITIALLY COME AS A RESULT OF ITS
ASSOCIATED STRONG SUBSIDENCE...THEN PART TWO WILL TAKE HOLD AS
IMPRESSIVE WARM ADVECTION WILL ONCE AGAIN BOOST OUR TEMPERATURES TO
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. THE DETAILS...

THE BASE OF A SHALLOW H5 TROUGH WILL RACE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA
ON SATURDAY WHILE EXPANSIVE SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL NOSE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...UP TO NEW
YORK STATE. THIS WILL KEEP A COLD (-12C @H85) WESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE
ACROSS LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO...BUT IN TERMS OF LAKE EFFECT...MOST
IF NOT ALL OF THE VALUABLE MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HAVE BEEN
STRIPPED AWAY. THE ON GOING LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY WILL BECOME STARVED
FOR MOISTURE AS A SHRIKING DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE UNDER A LOWERING
CAP WILL SIGNAL THE END OF THE EVENT.

OFF LAKE ERIE...MULTIPLE BANDED LAKE SNOW SHOWERS EARLY IN THE DAY
WILL TAPER OFF TO FLURRIES BY LATE AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...LITTLE
ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SRN TIER.

AS USUAL...THE ENDING WILL BE A SLOWER TO OCCUR EAST OF LK ONTARIO.
A LONGER FETCH FROM THE 280-290 FLOW WILL ENABLE ENOUGH LAKE
MOISTURE TO KEEP SNOW SHOWERS IN PLACE OVER THE TUG HILL THROUGHOUT
THE DAY...WITH A COUPLE MORE INCHES OF ACCUMULATION STILL POSSIBLE.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA...SATURDAY WILL BE THE
COLDEST DAY UP TO THIS POINT IN THE YOUNG SEASON. THE -12C H85 AIR
WILL ONLY SUPPORT SFC HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S FOR MOST
SITES WHILE BRISK WESTERLY WINDS WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILLS LARGELY IN
THE TEENS.

RIDGING AT ALL LEVELS WILL BUILD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
SATURDAY NIGHT...INCLUDING THE CENTER OF A STRONG SFC HIGH MAKING
ITS WAY TO PENNSYLVANIA. THE ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE AND INCREASINGLY
DRY AIRMASS WILL PRODUCE A MAINLY CLEAR AND COLD NIGHT OVER OUR
REGION...WITH LEFTOVER SNOW SHOWERS ON THE TUG HILL DYING OFF AS
FLURRIES.

THE SFC HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE RETURN FLOW IN ITS WAKE WILL ESTABLISH A DEEP WARM
ADVECTIVE FLOW...WITH H85 TEMPS CLIMBING FROM AN AVERAGE OF -6C
SUNDAY MORNING TO +2C BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
`CLEAN` WARM UP AS LITTLE MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR ISENTROPIC
LIFT TO GENERATE MUCH ALTO-CU. MORE IMPORTANTLY FOR MANY PEOPLE...
SFC TEMPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL REBOUND INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S
FOR MOST AREAS. FOR THE TYPICALLY WARMER GENESEE VALLEY...HIGHS
COULD EXCEED 40.

THE FAIR AND SEASONABLY MILD WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON
MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE COAST WILL NOSE BACK ACROSS
OUR REGION. BRIGHT SUNNY SKIES WILL HELP TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO
MID 40S REGION WIDE WITH LIGHT WINDS. NORMAL HIGHS FOR THIS POINT IN
DECEMBER ARE GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A LOW AMPLITUDE PACIFIC FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WILL KEEP ANY
REAL COLD AIR BOTTLED UP WELL TO OUR NORTH DURING THIS PERIOD...
WHILE A TRANSITORY RIDGE WILL HELP TO ACTUALLY BOOST OUR MERCURY
READINGS TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. IN FACT...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS
IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE CHANCE FOR ANY TRUE COLD
INTRUSIONS WILL PROBABLY HOLD OFF UNTIL AT LEAST NEXT WEEKEND...
AND EVEN THAT OPPORTUNITY SHOULD BE FLEETING. HERE IS A CLOSER LOOK.

WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING OUR FORECAST AREA ONE MORE DRY
DAY ON TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE (IE. CLOUD
COVER) WILL INCREASE DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY IN ADVANCE OF THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE.

THIS SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH IN THE LOW LEVELS...WE SHOULD ONLY
EXPERIENCE NUISANCE MIXED PRECIPITATION.

A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WEDNESDAY MORNING
WILL THEN PRESS EAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE NOSING ACROSS OUR REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL OFFER US CLEARING SKIES AND A SHORT RETURN TO FAIR DRY
WEATHER.

THE RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST OF OUR REGION ON THURSDAY WHILE A CUTTER
TYPE STORM SYSTEM WILL LIFT FROM THE PLAINS TO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. THIS SCENARIO WILL ALLOW FOR SOME GULF MOISTURE TO WORK
NORTHWARDS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND UP INTO OUR REGION...WITH
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS BREAKING OUT DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY.

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT 18Z...THE SURFACE MAP SHOWS A COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS CENTRAL
LAKE ERIE WITH AN AREA OF LAKE ENHANCED SNOW FORMING RIGHT AHEAD OF
THE BOUNDARY. THE SNOW IS RESULTING IN IFR CONDITIONS AT KIAG.
EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP AT KBUF AS THE SNOW BAND DROPS
SOUTH ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER...GENERALLY BETWEEN 18Z AND 21Z.
A SIMILAR TREND WILL TAKE PLACE AT KART BETWEEN 20Z AND 00Z.

AREAS NOT IMMEDIATELY DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES...SUCH AS KROC...MAY SEE
CONDITIONS LOWER TO MVFR AT TIMES AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH TO
THE EAST.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING...THE LAKE SNOWS WILL
SETTLE SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH AS WESTERLY WINDS SETS UP BEHIND THE
FRONT. THIS WILL ALLOW CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE GRADUALLY VCNTY
KIAG/KBUF AND KART...WHILE AT KJHW...CIGS AND VSBYS WILL LOWER TO
IFR AS THE SNOW SETS UP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER.

LAKE SNOWS WILL STILL BE IN PLACE SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES INTO
SATURDAY MORNING...BUT MOST OF THE TAF SITES NORTH OF THE SOUTHERN
TIER SHOULD BE SEEING VFR CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR IN WEAKENING LAKE
EFFECT SNOW.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

.MARINE...
WILL CONTINUE THE SCA THROUGH TODAY AND INTO SATURDAY ON BOTH LAKE
ERIE AND ONTARIO AS CAA AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASS ACROSS THE EASTERN
LAKES LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THOUGH CONDITIONS ON THE LAKES AT
PRESENT MOMENT ARE MAINLY BELOW SCA...WILL NOT DROP THE ADVISORIES
ONLY TO REISSUE FOR LATER TODAY AS WINDS AND WAVES WILL RETURN TO
SCA. WINDS ON THE RIVERS SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA THROUGH
SATURDAY.

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NYZ007.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR NYZ006-019-020.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
NYZ002-010-011.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
NYZ001.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
NYZ012-085.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NYZ008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST SATURDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
LOZ043>045.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST SATURDAY FOR LOZ042.

SYNOPSIS...LEVAN/THOMAS
NEAR TERM...LEVAN/THOMAS/ZAFF
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...TJP
MARINE...THOMAS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BUFFALO NY

1100 AM EST FRI DEC 9 2011

NO CHANGES FOR AREAS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

FOR SPECIFIC SNOWFALL TOTALS...PLEASE SEE BUFWSWBUF OR THE LATEST
GRAPHICS ON OUR WEB PAGE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

THIS SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH IN THE LOW LEVELS...WE SHOULD ONLY
EXPERIENCE NUISANCE MIXED PRECIPITATION.

.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT 12Z MVFR/IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WERE FOUND ACROSS THE REGION AS
LAKE EFFECT SNOW...COMBINED WITH SYNOPTIC SNOW FALL ACROSS THE
REGION. SYNOPTIC SNOWS WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST LATER THIS MORNING
WITH JUST THE LAKE SNOWS BEING THE PRIMARY SNOW MECHANISM. WILL
LOWER VSBYS DOWN TO 1/2SM FOR KIAG-KBUF-KART TERMINALS WITH THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW BANDS.

TOWARDS EVENING WINDS WILL VEER...FIRST OVER LAKE ERIE AND DELAYED
SEVERAL HOURS OVER EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO ALLOWING FOR THE BANDS OF
SNOW TO BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER. THIS WILL ALLOW SNOWS
TO END ACROSS THE NORTHERN NIAGARA FRONTIER AND NORTHERN GENESEE
VALLEY.

WINDS...AS WELL AS LOW LEVEL LIFT WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR LAKE
EFFECT SNOWS TO BE NEAR WATERTOWN THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. EXPECT
A BAND OF SNOW OFF LAKE ONTARIO TO BE CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF
WATERTOWN BY LATE OVERNIGHT...WHILE A LESS BAND OF SNOW OFF LAKE
ERIE WEAKENS OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST
OF THE LAKES.
SUNDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR.

SYNOPSIS...LEVAN/THOMAS
NEAR TERM...LEVAN/THOMAS/ZAFF
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...THOMAS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON NC

928 AM EST FRI DEC 9 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP A WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTER OFFSHORE
LATER TODAY. THE LOW WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN MAINLY OFFSHORE...ALTHOUGH A FEW SPRINKLES COULD BRUSH THE
CAPE FEAR REGION. A REINFORCING AREA OF COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SLOWLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE WEEKEND AND PERSIST
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM FRIDAY...A COASTAL TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED BETWEEN THE
BEACHES AND THE FRYING PAN SHOALS WEATHER BUOY ABOUT 33 MILES
OFFSHORE. WIND DIRECTIONS ARE NORTHERLY ON THE BEACHES (AND INLAND)
WITH A SOUTHEAST WIND REPORTED OUT AT THE BUOY. THE LATEST FEW RUNS
OF THE HRRR APPEAR TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS FEATURE AND SHOW IT
REACHING ITS WESTERNMOST POINT WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THEN
TURNING BACK OUT TO SEA THIS AFTERNOON AS SYNOPTIC LOW PRESSURE
BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE FARTHER OFFSHORE. THIS MEANS WE SHOULD MAINTAIN
NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS
TONIGHT.

RADAR WIND PROFILES CONFIRM MODEL PROJECTIONS OF A RAPIDLY VEERING
WIND PROFILE WITH HEIGHT CURRENTLY. NORTH-NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS
TURN EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY 2000 FEET UP...THEN SOUTHERLY UP THROUGH
4000-5000 FT AGL. AS THE SYNOPTIC LOW DEVELOPS OFFSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON THIS SHOULD HELP WEAKEN THE ONSHORE FLOW ABOVE THE
SURFACE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA...WEAKENING ANY
ISENTROPIC LIFT WHICH HAS BEEN SUPPORTING THE LOW CLOUD DECKS
APPARENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. THERE IS A
VERY REAL POTENTIAL SKIES COULD BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY THROUGH A LARGE
PORTION OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITHOUT THE BENEFIT OF THE
ISENTROPIC LIFT. GIVEN THAT VIRTUALLY ALL MESOSCALE AND SYNOPTIC
MODELS SHOW CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER REMAINING THROUGH THE DAY WE
WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE FOR NOW WITH SKY COVER FORECASTS...SHOWING
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES CONTINUING. WE HAVE NUDGED HIGH TEMPERATURE
FORECASTS UP A COUPLE DEGREES ALONG COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA WHERE THE
MOST SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED TODAY...ALTHOUGH UPWARD REVISIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE IF CLOUDS DO NOT REDEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON.

A FEW SPRINKLES (NON-MEASURABLE RAINFALL) ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CAPE
FEAR AREA LATE THIS MORNING OR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MOS POPS
IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE APPEAR TOO WET GIVEN THE MEAGER LIFT AND
MOIST LAYER DEPTH EXPECTED TODAY.

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...PASSAGE OF DRY COLD FRONT AROUND THE START OF
THE PERIOD WILL PUSH ANY LIGHT RAIN NEAR THE COAST FARTHER OFFSHORE
DURING SAT. COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL KNOCK TEMPERATURES
BACK TO CLIMO SAT AFTERNOON AND SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO SAT NIGHT. LOW
LEVEL NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW SAT VEERS TO NORTHEAST LATE IN THE DAY
AS CENTER OF CANADIAN HIGH MOVES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. MID
LEVEL RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN...AS THE MID LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS OFFSHORE...BUT LOW LEVELS REMAIN VERY DRY. LIGHT
RAIN MAY MOVE BACK OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATER SUN INTO SUN NIGHT
BUT THINK THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE INCREASED CLOUD COVER ALONG THE
COAST LATE IN THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH COLD ADVECTION WILL SHUT OFF
LATER SAT COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL KEEP HIGHS A FEW DEGREES BELOW
CLIMO SUN. CLOUD COVER ALONG THE COAST SUN NIGHT AND NORTHEAST FLOW
WILL RESULT IN A WIDE RANGE OF LOWS. INLAND AREAS WILL END UP A FE
DEGREES BELOW CLIMO WITH COASTAL SITES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT TONIGHT AND FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING A
LITTLE...MAINLY DURING THE EARLY PORTIONS OF THE PERIOD. WEAK
INVERTED TROUGH OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST IS PULLED NORTHEAST MON BY
EXITING SHORTWAVE. LOOKS LIKE THE LIGHT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE SO HAVE NOT ADDED A POP FOR MON. PATTERN
ALOFT BECOMES ZONAL LATER MON IN THE WAKE OF EXITING SHORTWAVE. A
SECOND WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA...ACCOMPANIED
BY A WEAK COLD FRONT...TUE NIGHT INTO WED. OTHER THAN AN INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF COLD ADVECTION EARLY WED.
GFS/ECMWF BOTH DEPICT BUILDING 5H RIDGE FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO...BUT VARY ON HOW QUICKLY THE RIDGE BUILDS AND THE STRENGTH
OF THIS RIDGE LATE IN THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR CLIMO
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A SLIGHT MODERATING TREND LATE IN THE
PERIOD. SINCE THE WEAKER 5H RIDGE IN THE ECMWF IS FAVORED HAVE NOT
GONE TOO WARM WITH TEMPS AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AND CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE COAST WILL
CREATE STRATA CU DECKS AT VARYING LEVELS TODAY. BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR ARE POSSIBLE...BUT PREDOMINATELY VFR. A SPRINKLE IS POSSIBLE
ALONG THE COAST...WITH MINIMAL AVIATION IMPACTS. LIGHT NORTHEAST
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RECEDES.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH SUNDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE FOR POSSIBLE
SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST MONDAY.

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM FRIDAY...A COASTAL TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED BETWEEN THE
COASTLINE AND THE FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY. WIND DIRECTIONS AT THE
BEACHES ARE GENERALLY FROM THE NORTH...WHILE THE BUOY OFFSHORE IS
REPORTING A SOUTHEAST WIND. LATEST SHORT-TERM MODELS SUGGEST THE
TROUGH HAS NEARLY REACHED ITS WESTERNMOST POINT AND SHOULD BEGIN TO
DRIFT EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS SYNOPTIC-SCALE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
ALONG IT WELL OFFSHORE. THIS MEANS NORTH TO NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS
SHOULD PREDOMINATE THROUGH THE DAY INTO TONIGHT.

RADAR SHOWS SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
WATERS. THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY OF THIS RAIN MAKING IT INTO THE
COASTAL WATERS EXISTS JUST TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF CAPE FEAR DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.

SEAS WERE RUNNING A BIT HIGHER THAN INITIALLY FORECAST THIS
MORNING...AVERAGING 4 FT NORTH OF CAPE FEAR AND AROUND 3 FT THE
SOUTH. SPECTRAL WAVE ENERGY DIAGRAMS SHOW A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF
THE WAVE ENERGY HAS A 9-SECOND SWELL PERIOD...WHICH THE WAVEWATCH
MODEL SHOWS IS MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST. FORECAST WAVE HEIGHTS
HAVE BEEN UPDATED THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE PERIOD. GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP LATE SAT OR EARLY SUN WITH WINDS
AND SEAS EXPECTED TO EXCEED SCA THRESHOLDS AROUND MIDNIGHT. COLD
ADVECTION SAT NIGHT WILL ALSO LEAD TO SLIGHTLY STRONGER WIND GUSTS.
GRADIENT WILL REMAIN PINCHED SUN AND SUN NIGHT...WITH 20 TO 25 KT
WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. PROLONGED STRONG
NORTHEAST FLOW CAUSE THE EAST-NORTHEAST WIND WAVE TO TRANSITION TO
AN EAST-NORTHEAST SWELL BETWEEN 5 AND 8 FT.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF
THE PERIOD WITH SPEEDS GRADUALLY DECREASING MON INTO TUE AS GRADIENT
RELAXES. SPEEDS IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE MON MORNING DROP BELOW 20
KT BY MIDDAY AND CLOSE TO 15 KT BY MON EVENING. SEAS WILL RESPOND A
LITTLE SLOWER...WITH 6 TO 7 FT 7 TO 8 SECOND SWELLS TAKING SOME TIME
TO DROP BELOW 6 FT. SHOULD SEE ALL HEADLINES DROPPED BY TUE MORNING
WITH SCA WATERS AS EARLY AS MON EVENING. WINDS BACK AROUND TO
NORTH-NORTHWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD AHEAD OF NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TO CROSS THE WATERS LATE TUE NIGHT. GRADIENT REMAINS
UNCHANGED WITH OFFSHORE FLOW 10 TO 15 KT TUE.

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...DL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC

914 AM EST FRI DEC 9 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING OVER THE AREA FROM THE NE WILL MOVE E TODAY
WHILE A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OFF THE COAST. LOW PRES
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE TROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS FROM THE WEST EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 915 AM FRI...MIXED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE AREA THIS
MORNING. ENOUGH SUNSHINE FILTERING THROUGH TO CONTINUE PARTLY
CLOUDY WORDING IN THE FORECAST. TEMPS ON TRACK. NO CHANGES NEEDED
TO ZONES THIS MORNING.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 315 AM FRI...SHRT WVS IN SW FLOW ALOFT WILL SPREAD HIGH CLOUDS
OVER AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED
TO SPREAD SOME SCU IN BY LATE MORNING...LEADING TO A BIT MORE CLOUD
COVER THAN PREVIOUS FCST. NAM12 APPEARS OVERDONE WITH LIGHT QPF OVER
AREA DURING DAY AS NOT VERIFYING WELL WITH ACTIVITY FCST OF GA COAST
AT 06Z...THUS WILL KEEP DRY FCST. INCREASING LOW LVL THICKNESSES
SUPPORT MAXT TEMPS NEAR 60 EVEN WITH PT SUNNY SKIES.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM FRI...APPROACHING SHRT WV EXPECTED TO PRODUCE WEAK
CYCLOGENESIS ALONG COASTAL TROF BNDRY OVERNIGHT...AND ENOUGH SUPPORT
TO BRING 20 POPS ALONG OBX AND S COAST AFTER 10 PM. CLOUD COVER
THICKENING OVERNIGHT AS WELL. MOS BLEND IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH
PREVIOUS FCST FOR MIN TEMPS...MAINLY LOW-MID 40S.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM FRI...EARLY PART OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE
MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. MED/LONG RANGE MODEL
SUITE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON SYNOPTIC REGIME THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UPR MIDWEST TROUGH WILL SWEEP EASTWARD THROUGH THE CONUS THIS
WEEKEND...BRINGING A TASTE OF A BRIEF COOLDOWN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
TO E NC. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION SAT
MORNING. RETURN FLOW WILL BE BRIEF OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND
LIMITED MOISTURE PER SOUNDING ANALYSIS INDICATES ONLY AN INC IN
CLOUDS EXPECTED SAT WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. CONVERGENCE SLIGHTLY
BETTER OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WHERE A SHOWER OR TWO MAY GRAZE THE
OBX THROUGH SAT MORNING. DECENT CAA WILL TRANSLATE TO HIGH TEMPS IN
THE 50S ACROSS E NC...THOUGH GUSTY N WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL A BIT
COOLER. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT SAT NIGHT AND WITH CLEAR SKIES TEMPS
WILL PLUMMET INTO THE 20S INLAND WITH 30S IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS TO
LOW 40S OBX. THICKNESSES REMAIN LOW ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON SUGGESTING
MAX T`S 50-55 CWA WIDE. FLOW ALOFT BECOMES ZONAL EARLY NEXT WEEK
SUGGESTING TEMPS RETURNING TO NEAR AVERAGE FOR MID DEC. HIGH PRES
WILL REMAIN LODGED AT THE SFC EAST OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS BRINGING CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS.

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING/...
AS OF 915 AM FRIDAY...SCU CIGS AROUND 5K FT DEVELOPING S OF AREA
WILL SPREAD N-NE OVER TAF SITES THIS MORNING WITH ONSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPING IN 950-850 MB LAYER. VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EVENING
THEN CIGS EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR LATE TONIGHT AS DEVELOPING LOW
PRES MOVES ALONG COASTAL TROF.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM FRI...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
CLOUDS WILL LINGER THROUGH SAT MORNING THOUGH REMAIN IN THE VFR
RANGE. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTH ON SAT FOLLOWING A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS LIGHTEN SAT NIGHT BEFORE PICKING BACK
UP DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...THOUGH NOT AS GUSTY AS ON SAT. FOG/BR
SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS DEWPOINTS WILL BE
QUITE LOW DUE TO DRY HIGH PRES MOVING INTO E NC.

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 915 AM FRI...CURRENT MARINE ZONES IN GOOD SHAPE. LATEST OBS
FROM LAND/BUOYS MATCH UP WELL WITH FORECAST. NO CHANGES NEEDED
THIS MORNING.

WEAK LOW PRES DEVELOPING S OF AREA PRODUCING TIGHER PRES GRAD
WITH NE WINDS 15-20 KTS OBSERVED MAINLY S OF HAT. LATEST RUC13 HAS
DECENT HANDLE ON THIS TREND AND SUPPORTS STRONGER WINDS PERSISTING
MOST OF MORNING...THEN DECREASING THIS AFTN AS GRADIENT SLACKENS.
WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT WITH SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT
ALONG TROF. WW3 AND SWAN IN AGREEMENT WITH PREVIOUS FCST
SEAS...WITH BUILDING SEAS LATE TONIGHT WITH INCREASING NE WINDS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM FRI...ISSUED SCA BEGINNING SAT MORNING AS CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH THAT WINDS PICK UP DRAMATICALLY BEHIND A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. SEAS WILL FOLLOW SUIT AS A WIND WAVE ABOVE 6 FT
DEVELOPS...PEAKING SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW
SCA FOR THE SOUNDS SAT EVENING INTO EARLY SUN MORNING...THOUGH
REMAIN HIGH FOR THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SHORT PERIOD WIND WAVE WILL TRANSITION TO A LONG
PERIOD NORTHEASTERLY SWELL NEXT WEEK AS A NW/SE GRADIENT REMAINS
ACROSS THE NC COASTAL WATERS DUE TO PERSISTENT HIGH PRES ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. SEAS LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE
6 FEET INTO TUESDAY AND POTENTIALLY INTO MIDDLE NEXT WEEK.

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SATURDAY TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY
FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
AMZ130.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SATURDAY TO 3 AM EST TUESDAY
FOR AMZ150-152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 3 AM EST TUESDAY
FOR AMZ156-158.

SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...HSA/JBM
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...HSA/JBM/TL
MARINE...HSA/JBM/TL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC

700 AM EST FRI DEC 9 2011

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 630 AM FRI...HIGH CLOUDS HAVE THINNED PAST HOUR BUT MORE
SPREADING IN OVER WRN NC/SC AND SCU STARTING TO DEVELOP OVER SE NC
AND SPREADING N...THUS PT SUNNY FCST ON TRACK. NO CHANGE TO TEMPS.

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING/...
AS OF 645 AM FRIDAY...SCU CIGS AROUND 5K FT DEVELOPING S OF AREA
WILL SPREAD N-NE OVER TAF SITES THIS MORNING WITH ONSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPING IN 950-850 MB LAYER. VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EVENING
THEN CIGS EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR LATE TONIGHT AS DEVELOPING LOW
PRES MOVES ALONG COASTAL TROF.

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 645 AM FRI...UPDATED FOR STRONGER WINDS OVER CENTRAL AND SRN
WATERS THIS MORNING. WEAK LOW PRES DEVELOPING S OF AREA PRODUCING
TIGHER PRES GRAD WITH NE WINDS 15-20 KTS OBSERVED MAINLY S OF HAT.
LATEST RUC13 HAS DECENT HANDLE ON THIS TREND AND SUPPORTS STRONGER
WINDS PERSISTING MOST OF MORNING...THEN DECREASING THIS AFTN AS
GRADIENT SLACKENS. WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT WITH SFC
LOW DEVELOPMENT ALONG TROF. WW3 AND SWAN IN AGREEMENT WITH PREVIOUS
FCST SEAS...WITH BUILDING SEAS LATE TONIGHT WITH INCREASING NE
WINDS.

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JBM
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...JBM/TL
MARINE...JBM/TL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

657 PM EST SAT DEC 10 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND AND PROVIDE
FAIR AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE DURING
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD RETURN BY NEXT
WEEKEND.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
WIDESPREAD BKN /ALBEIT RATHER SHALLOW/ STRATO CU PRODUCING SCATTERED
FLURRIES SEEN ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF PENN LATE THIS MORNING VIA A
FAIRLY WELL ALIGNED 290 MEAN BLYR FLOW.

THE SCENT VALLEYS WILL STAY MOSTLY SUNNY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
COOLEST 850-500 MB TEMPS /AND BEST FETCH OF MOISTURE OFF LAKE ERIE/
SLIDE EAST ACROSS NRN PENN AND NEW YORK STATE.

LOCAL LAKE EFFECT TOOL AND LATEST 15Z RUC INDICATES THE
CURRENT...BKN WEAK LES BANDS CONSOLIDATING SOMEWHAT AND MOVING
FURTHER INLAND ON MORE OF A 27O DEG AXIS. THIS WILL BRING UP TO A
FEW INCHES OF ACCUM TO NWRN WARREN COUNTY...WHILE SURROUNDING
LOCATIONS THROUGHOUT WARREN...MCKEAN AND POTTER COUNTIES SEE JUST
A LIGHT COATING TO ONE INCH.

MAX TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS
THE NW MTNS...TO AROUND 40 IN THE SE ZONES WILL BE 3-5F BELOW
NORMAL ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY...AND UP TO 7 OR 8F BELOW NORMAL
ACROSS THE MTNS.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT SHSN SHOULD DIMINISH AND HALT BEFORE A POSSIBLE RE-
DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING/EARLY TONIGHT. THIS WILL BE DUE TO THE
BACKING FLOW AT THE LOW LEVELS WHILE 8H FLOW STAYS WNW FOR MOST OF
THE NIGHT. THIS IS KIND OF TYPICAL...AS PAST EXPERIENCE INDICATES
THAT WE OFTEN GET A LAST GASP BAND AS THE WAA BEGINS AND PINCHES
THE LINGERING MOISTURE IN A NARROW BAND OF CONVERGENCE LIFTING
NEWRD. ANY SHSN TONIGHT SHOULD BE NORTH OF ROUTE 6. THE CLEARING
THAT BECOMES NEARLY COMPLETE BY SUNRISE SUN AM WILL HELP THE TEMPS
DROP INTO THE TEENS EVERYWHERE ACROSS THE CWA. THE TYPICAL COLD
AIR DRAINAGE SITES LIKE KSEG/KTHV COULD BE 2-5F LOWER THAN
NEIGHBORING SITES.

THE NEXT FEW DAYS ARE THEN ABSOLUTELY UNEVENTFUL...WITH ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE THANKS TO THE GIANT 1038MB HIGH WHICH KEEPS ALL MOISTURE
AT BAY UNTIL LATER TUESDAY. THE TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL ONLY REBOUND
TO A FEW DEGS MILDER THAN SAT AS WEAK WAA BEGINS. OVERNIGHT MINS
WILL MOST LIKELY BE MILDER ON THE RIDGES IN THE W WHERE WINDS MAY
STAY UP JUST A BIT VS THE CALM WINDS TO THE EAST. MONDAY LOOKS
LIKE NORMAL MAXES DESPITE ANOTHER CHILLY START. HIGH CLOUDS MAY
TRY TO MOVE OVERHEAD ON TUESDAY...BUT IT WILL STILL BE MOSTLY
SUNNY AND A FEW MORE DEGS WILL BE ADDED TO THE MAXES.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NRN STREAM FRONT DROPS DOWN THROUGH NY STATE ON TUES NIGHT...AND
MAY MAKE IT INTO PA. BUT...THE HIGH WILL BE SITTING OVER THE
ENTIRE EASTERN SIDE OF THE CONTINENT AND SHOULD FEND IT OFF.
NO REAL MOISTURE WITH THAT BACKDOOR FRONT ANYWAY. WAA AND
INCREASING GULF MOISTURE TO OUR WEST WILL BRING AT LEAST SOME
LOWERED CLOUDS OVERHEAD TUES NIGHT/WED AS WARM FRONT WORKS TO THE
NORTH THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AND INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. SO WE
SHOULD SEE SOME CHC OF A BRIEF SHOWER FROM TUES NIGHT INTO
WED...BUT BULK OF THE TIME WILL BE DRY.

GIANT STORM WILL DEEPEN OVER THE MS VALLEY AND GO INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES ON THURS. THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF RATHER
STRONG SW FLOW LOCALLY ON THU...BUT SHOWERS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL
THU NIGHT WITH COLD FRONT.

THE AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT IS NOT REAL COLD...HEIGHTS ARE QUITE
HIGH...THUS NOT SEEING MUCH IF ANY LAKE EFFECT WITH SW FLOW BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT. PATTERN DIFFS BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF AT LONGEST
RANGES WILL KEEP UNCERTAINTY HIGH AND SLIGHT/LOW CHC POPS IN FOR
DAY7.

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BUILD INTO CENTRAL PA
OVERNIGHT...BRINGING LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES TO MOST OF THE
AREA. A WEST FLOW OFF OF LK ERIE COULD PRODUCE MVFR CIGS AND A
FEW FLURRIES AT BFD THROUGH THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...EVEN THERE
SKIES SHOULD CLEAR BY ARND MIDNIGHT...AS FLOW SHIFTS TO THE WSW.

A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST OF VFR AND LIGHT WINDS CONTINUES
THROUGH SUNDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVER THE STATE.

OUTLOOK...
SUN-WED...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
THU...SHRA/MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE...MAINLY W MTNS.

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT/CERU
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/CERU
LONG TERM...LAMBERT
AVIATION...FITZGERALD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LUBBOCK TX

943 PM CST SAT DEC 10 2011

.UPDATE...
VISIBILITIES WERE RAPIDLY DROPPING FROM WEST TO EAST ON THE CAPROCK
LATE THIS EVENING...IN SOME CASES TO NEAR ZERO. THIS TREND IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SPREADING TO MOST AREAS ON THE CAPROCK BY
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE REST OF THE FORECAST WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE MORNING STILL LOOK ON TRACK.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 554 PM CST SAT DEC 10 2011/

AVIATION...
LOW CLOUD DECK REMAINS FAIRLY SOLID BOTH AT KCDS AND KLBB TO START
OUT THE NEW TAF PERIOD...IN SPITE OF BULK OF SOLUTIONS FAVORING AN
AFTERNOON BREAK. WE ARE FOLLOWING CLOSE TO THE LATEST RUC MODEL
RUN INDICATING MORE PERSISTENT LOW CLOUD LAYER AT BOTH SITES THIS
EVENING WITH CLOUD DECK LOWERING AROUND 06Z ALONG WITH AREAS OF
RAIN...FOG...AND DRIZZLE DEVELOPING. THE COLD TEMPERATURES MAY YET
BE AN ISSUE FOR KLBB AS LATEST RUC INDICATES SUB-FREEZING LAYER
NEAR THE SURFACE AS THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS AND ONLY A
VERY SHALLOW WARM TONGUE ABOVE. SO...WE WILL BE STUDYING THIS
CLOSER THIS EVENING FOR A POSSIBLE UPDATE AS...HOPEFULLY...OUR
SOLUTIONS BECOME MORE USABLE. WE EXPECT TO REMAIN AT IFR OR LIFR
LEVELS FROM LATER TONIGHT INTO THE DAY SUNDAY WITH GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT PERHAPS LATER SUNDAY THAT WE ALSO WILL ATTEMPT TO SHOW
WITH THE NEXT TAF ISSUANCE AT 06Z. RMCQUEEN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 235 PM CST SAT DEC 10 2011/

SHORT TERM...
LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN HARD PRESSED TO SCATTERED OUT TODAY AND THIS
HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES COOL. A FEW BREAKS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST ZONES...WITH SOME THINNING ACROSS THE EASTERN
SECTIONS...AND THIS HAS ALLOWED THESE SPOTS TO WARM MODESTLY INTO
THE MID AND UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 DEGREES. STILL COULD SEE MORE
BREAKS DEVELOP/EXPAND THIS AFTERNOON...BUT ANY THAT DO MATERIALIZE
WILL BE SHORT-LIVED. INSTEAD...INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
WILL DRAW DEEPER MOISTURE IN FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT AS STRONG
MOISTURE ADVECTION ENSUES. THUS...EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW-CLOUDS
AND FOG TO OVERSPREAD/REDEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS AS A
LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH RAPIDLY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
TONIGHT WITHIN QUASI-ZONAL MID-LEVEL FLOW. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION /GENERALLY AT AND BELOW 700 MB/ WILL BE
GOOD...OVERALL ISENTROPIC ACCENT AND PROGGED OMEGA FIELDS ARE WEAK
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. STILL...MOST NWP DOES CONTINUE TO INDICATE
LIGHT QPF DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES AFTER 06Z AND THEN
EXPANDING NORTH AND NORTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY. ALL INDICATIONS ARE
THAT THIS PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF DRIZZLE AND/OR VERY
LIGHT RAIN. TRICKIEST PART OF THE FORECAST REVOLVES AROUND
TEMPERATURES...WHICH WILL LIKELY RESIDE AT OR JUST BELOW THE
FREEZING MARK ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE ADVANCING
MOISTURE...THOUGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD GRADUALLY WARM AS DEEPER
MOISTURE ADVANCES NORTH LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.
THUS...BIGGEST CONCERN WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE
AND/OR VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY...FAVORING THE NORTHWEST ZONES. COULD SEE LIGHT FROZEN
PRECIPITATION INITIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A DENVER CITY TO LUBBOCK
TO CHILDRESS LINE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH THE FREEZING LINE
SLOWLY LIFTING TO THE NORTH SUNDAY MORNING. STILL...IT APPEARS THE
BEST CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE WILL OCCUR AS MOISTURE PROFILES
DEEPEN AND SFC TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO AT OR JUST ABOVE THE FREEZING
MARK. GIVEN THIS...THINK OVERALL IMPACTS WILL BE LOW...BUT IT WILL
HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY. WILL CONTINUE A MENTION OF FOG/FREEZING
FOG AND POSSIBLE LIGHT FREEZING PRECIPITATION IN THE HWO FOR TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS LOOK TO REMAIN
LIGHT /IN THE HUNDREDTHS RANGE/...THOUGH DID CONTINUE A SLIGHT CHANCE
TO LOW END CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS THE FA WILL LIKELY
REMAIN SOCKED IN ALL DAY SUNDAY...SO ALTHOUGH WAA WILL GIVE
TEMPERATURES A SLIGHT BOOST...ONLY EXPECT HIGHS SUNDAY TO TOP OUT IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S.

LONG TERM...
SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO REMAIN ACROSS THE FCST AREA AHEAD OF
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE OVER THE PLAINS STATES
WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE WILL DEEPEN AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. MODEST MAINLY
ISENTROPIC LIFT SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WILL MORE LIKELY RESULT IN
CONTINUATION OF STRATUS AND POTENTIAL FOR FOG RATHER THAN LIGHT
RAIN. BY MONDAY NIGHT LIFT ALOFT WILL INCREASE. OVERALL TIMING OF
THIS NEXT TROUGH APPEARS TO BE ABOUT SIX HOURS FASTER THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS WHICH WOULD FOCUS PRECIP CHANCES FROM LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND HAVE ADJUSTED POPS GRIDS ACCORDINGLY
WITH PACIFIC FRONT LIKELY DRIVING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EAST OF THE
FCST BY LATE WEDNESDAY AND UPPER LEVEL LIFT SHIFTING EWD AT THAT
TIME AS WELL. OVERALL THE PATTERN STILL DOES NOT FAVOR WIDESPREAD
PRECIP AND HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE 20S AND 30S.

PERIOD OF TRANQUIL WEATHER LATE WEEK BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. 12Z RUNS LOOKING A BIT MORE FAVORABLE
FOR PRECIP NEXT SATURDAY BUT A BIT TOO EARLY TO INTRODUCE POPS
ATTM.

TEMPS EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL MODERATE AS COLD AIR GETS AT LEAST
PARTIALLY DISLODGED. LOOKING AT MILD LOW TEMPS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER BUT THOSE
FACTORS WILL ALSO LIMIT DIURNAL RANGE AND THUS HIGH TEMPS.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 23 42 31 52 35 / 20 10 10 10 20
TULIA 27 41 34 49 39 / 20 20 10 10 20
PLAINVIEW 28 41 36 49 40 / 20 20 10 10 20
LEVELLAND 29 42 37 49 40 / 20 30 10 10 20
LUBBOCK 31 42 38 49 41 / 20 30 10 10 20
DENVER CITY 31 42 37 49 41 / 30 20 10 10 20
BROWNFIELD 32 43 37 50 41 / 30 30 10 10 20
CHILDRESS 31 45 36 52 40 / 10 30 10 10 20
SPUR 33 44 37 51 42 / 20 30 10 10 20
ASPERMONT 34 46 40 51 43 / 20 30 10 10 20

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZING FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ021>024-027>030-033>036-039>042.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LUBBOCK TX

554 PM CST SAT DEC 10 2011

.AVIATION...
LOW CLOUD DECK REMAINS FAIRLY SOLID BOTH AT KCDS AND KLBB TO START
OUT THE NEW TAF PERIOD...IN SPITE OF BULK OF SOLUTIONS FAVORING AN
AFTERNOON BREAK. WE ARE FOLLOWING CLOSE TO THE LATEST RUC MODEL
RUN INDICATING MORE PERSISTENT LOW CLOUD LAYER AT BOTH SITES THIS
EVENING WITH CLOUD DECK LOWERING AROUND 06Z ALONG WITH AREAS OF
RAIN...FOG...AND DRIZZLE DEVELOPING. THE COLD TEMPERATURES MAY YET
BE AN ISSUE FOR KLBB AS LATEST RUC INDICATES SUB-FREEZING LAYER
NEAR THE SURFACE AS THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS AND ONLY A
VERY SHALLOW WARM TONGUE ABOVE. SO...WE WILL BE STUDYING THIS
CLOSER THIS EVENING FOR A POSSIBLE UPDATE AS...HOPEFULLY...OUR
SOLUTIONS BECOME MORE USABLE. WE EXPECT TO REMAIN AT IFR OR LIFR
LEVELS FROM LATER TONIGHT INTO THE DAY SUNDAY WITH GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT PERHAPS LATER SUNDAY THAT WE ALSO WILL ATTEMPT TO SHOW
WITH THE NEXT TAF ISSUANCE AT 06Z. RMCQUEEN

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 235 PM CST SAT DEC 10 2011/

PERIOD OF TRANQUIL WEATHER LATE WEEK BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. 12Z RUNS LOOKING A BIT MORE FAVORABLE
FOR PRECIP NEXT SATURDAY BUT A BIT TOO EARLY TO INTRODUCE POPS
ATTM.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 23 42 31 52 35 / 20 10 10 10 20
TULIA 27 41 34 49 39 / 20 20 10 10 20
PLAINVIEW 28 41 36 49 40 / 20 20 10 10 20
LEVELLAND 29 42 37 49 40 / 20 30 10 10 20
LUBBOCK 31 42 38 49 41 / 20 30 10 10 20
DENVER CITY 32 42 37 49 41 / 30 20 10 10 20
BROWNFIELD 33 43 37 50 41 / 30 30 10 10 20
CHILDRESS 31 45 36 52 40 / 10 30 10 10 20
SPUR 33 44 37 51 42 / 20 30 10 10 20
ASPERMONT 34 46 40 51 43 / 20 30 10 10 20

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

99/99/05

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS FORT WORTH TX

1007 AM CST FRI DEC 9 2011

.UPDATE...
EXTENDED THE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH NOON FOR THE REGION ALONG THE
I-35 CORRIDOR SOUTH OF THE METROPLEX THROUGH TEMPLE. OTHERWISE
BAND OF MOISTURE AND LOW CLOUDS WILL BE STUBBORN TODAY AS FRONT
WILL NOT HAVE A LOT OF CLEARING POWER. LOOKS LIKE CLOUDS WILL
PERSIST GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-35. OBVIOUSLY TEMPERATURES
BENEATH THE CLOUD BANK WILL BE HELD DOWN DUE TO LACK OF SUNSHINE
AND HAVE LOWERED THEM A FEW DEGREES. OTHERWISE...CLOUD BANK LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST DURING THE EVENING HOURS AND
SOUTHERN/SOUTHWESTERN ZONES MAY STAY CLOUDY TONIGHT. WILL RAISE
TONIGHTS LOWS IN THAT AREA. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME. TR.92

.AVIATION...
/16Z AMENDMENTS/

LATEST SURFACE DATA INDICATES A WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
JUST SOUTH OF THE MAJOR AIRPORTS THIS MORNING WHICH IS HELPING TO
KEEP WEAK EASTERLY FLOW IN PLACE. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP LOW CIGS
IN PLACE FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. A COLD FRONT IS ALSO EXPECTED TO
MOVE SOUTH INTO THE AREA LATER TODAY ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL LINGER EVEN AS THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH. LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS
SUPPORT LOWER CIGS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE
SOME BRIEF TEMPORARY IMPROVEMENTS. HAVE AMENDED METROPLEX TAFS
ACCORDINGLY AND WILL MONITOR CIG TRENDS FOR FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS IF
NECESSARY.

DUNN

.PREV UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
WARM...MOIST AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT NORTHWARD CAUSING PATCHY
AREAS OF DENSE FOG TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS WE APPROACH
SUNRISE. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED THROUGH 10 AM FOR
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES WHERE VISIBILITIES ARE RAPIDLY
DETERIORATING. THE ADVISORY AREA EXTENDS FROM THE DALLAS-FORT
WORTH METROPLEX SOUTHWARD ALONG AND SURROUNDING THE INTERSTATE
35/35 W CORRIDOR. THE FOG WILL LIKELY HANG AROUND THROUGH MID
MORNING AND VISIBILITIES SHOULD BEGIN IMPROVING BY 10 AM.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CST FRI DEC 9 2011/
LIGHT SOUTH FLOW CONTINUES OVER NORTH TEXAS AND MOISTURE HAS BEGUN
TO RETURN SLOWLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING. DEWPOINTS HAVE STEADILY CREPT UP AND LOW STRATUS HAS
FORMED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20
CORRIDOR. STRATUS IS SPREADING NORTH AND WILL LIKELY COVER THE
DALLAS-FORT WORTH METROPLEX BEFORE SUNRISE. THERE IS STILL THE
POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG TO FORM BUT WITH THE COMBINATION OF
QUICKLY-DEVELOPING STRATUS AND THICKENING HIGH CLOUDS...THE
PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD LOW VISIBILITIES SEEMS PRETTY SLIM.
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE MENTION OF FOG FOR AREAS GENERALLY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 20 WHERE HIGHEST LEVELS OF SHALLOW MOISTURE RESIDE.

MEANWHILE A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS
MORNING AND CONTINUE ITS SLOW STEADY JOURNEY SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY. WINDS WILL BACK TO THE NORTHEAST
AND THEN NORTH AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. IT LOOKS LIKE THE
BOUNDARY WILL REACH THE METROPLEX BY NOON AND PUSH SOUTHEAST OF
THE REGION AROUND SUNSET. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN BEHIND
THE FRONT LEAVING THE AREA COOL AND DRY THROUGH SATURDAY.

ON SUNDAY...THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT QUICKLY EAST AND BECOME
ESTABLISHED OVER THE EAST COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW RETURN FLOW TO
START UP AGAIN AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE. A
WEAK SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE WESTERLIES WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO
SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL THEN DEEPEN OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST AND
BEGIN ITS APPROACH FROM THE WEST EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK. MODELS
ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE SYSTEM OPENING UP AND
ACCELERATING OFF TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE GFS
IS STILL FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE ECMWF WITH THE PATH OF THE MAIN
UPPER LEVEL FEATURE. EITHER WAY...NORTH TEXAS WILL SEE RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE AS WE APPROACH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE WEDNESDAY AS THE TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH
AND A PACIFIC FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE
INSTABILITY WILL BE MINIMAL WITH ML CAPES BELOW 500 J/KG FOR THE
MOST PART...BUT COMBINED WITH GOOD DYNAMICS...THUNDER IS STILL A
DECENT POSSIBILITY WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL LIKELY END ON
THURSDAY MORNING...AS THE SYSTEM MIGRATES EAST AWAY FROM NORTH
TEXAS.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 48 33 50 32 51 / 0 0 0 5 10
WACO, TX 52 38 50 31 48 / 0 0 0 10 20
PARIS, TX 46 29 48 28 50 / 0 0 0 5 5
DENTON, TX 48 29 50 27 49 / 0 0 0 5 10
MCKINNEY, TX 47 29 49 27 50 / 0 0 0 5 10
DALLAS, TX 47 33 50 33 51 / 0 0 0 5 10
TERRELL, TX 47 31 49 29 50 / 0 0 0 5 10
CORSICANA, TX 50 33 51 32 47 / 0 0 0 5 10
TEMPLE, TX 53 38 52 32 50 / 0 0 0 20 20
MINERAL WELLS, TX 51 34 49 28 49 / 0 0 0 10 10

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR TXZ133-134-145-146-
158>161-174.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS FORT WORTH TX

1003 AM CST FRI DEC 9 2011

.AVIATION...
/16Z AMENDMENTS/

DUNN

.UPDATE...
WARM...MOIST AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT NORTHWARD CAUSING PATCHY
AREAS OF DENSE FOG TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS WE APPROACH
SUNRISE. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED THROUGH 10 AM FOR
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES WHERE VISIBILITIES ARE RAPIDLY
DETERIORATING. THE ADVISORY AREA EXTENDS FROM THE DALLAS-FORT
WORTH METROPLEX SOUTHWARD ALONG AND SURROUNDING THE INTERSTATE
35/35 W CORRIDOR. THE FOG WILL LIKELY HANG AROUND THROUGH MID
MORNING AND VISIBILITIES SHOULD BEGIN IMPROVING BY 10 AM.

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR TXZ133-134-145-146-
158>161-174.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS FORT WORTH TX

350 AM CST FRI DEC 9 2011

.AVIATION...
09Z UPDATE...
CONCERNS REGARDING IFR AND POSSIBLE LIFR CIGS ARRIVING AT DFW
METRO AIRPORTS IS COMING TO FRUITION AND HAVE ADDED JUST IFR CIGS
WITH NO VSBY RESTRICTIONS FOR NOW. WACO LOOKS THE MOST LIKELY TO
SEE LIFR CONDITIONS AND RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY AS WELL. RUC BAK/OPS
40 AND WRF SOUNDINGS HANDLE THE CURRENT SITUATION MUCH BETTER THAN
THE GFS OR LAMP MOS.

WAA IS OCCURRING OVER A SHALLOW FRONTAL INVERSION CENTERED NEAR
925MB OR 2-2.5 KFT...THOUGH VEERED FROM THE WSW. STRENGTH OF FLOW
IS GENERALLY 15-25 KTS WHICH SHOULD KEEP RESTRICTIONS MORE RELATED
TO STRATUS VERSUS VSBY AT DFW METRO TERMINALS. WE WILL MONITOR
TRENDS CLOSELY. WE ARE EXPECTING A SLOWER FRONTAL ARRIVAL AFTER
18Z...VERSUS THE MORNING TIMING ADVERTISED BY THE GFS.

.DISCUSSION...
LIGHT SOUTH FLOW CONTINUES OVER NORTH TEXAS AND MOISTURE HAS BEGUN
TO RETURN SLOWLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING. DEWPOINTS HAVE STEADILY CREPT UP AND LOW STRATUS HAS
FORMED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20
CORRIDOR. STRATUS IS SPREADING NORTH AND WILL LIKELY COVER THE
DALLAS-FORT WORTH METROPLEX BEFORE SUNRISE. THERE IS STILL THE
POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG TO FORM BUT WITH THE COMBINATION OF
QUICKLY-DEVELOPING STRATUS AND THICKENING HIGH CLOUDS...THE
PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD LOW VISIBILITIES SEEMS PRETTY SLIM.
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE MENTION OF FOG FOR AREAS GENERALLY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 20 WHERE HIGHEST LEVELS OF SHALLOW MOISTURE RESIDE.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 54 31 50 32 51 / 0 0 0 5 10
WACO, TX 55 31 50 31 48 / 0 0 0 10 20
PARIS, TX 52 28 48 28 50 / 0 0 0 5 5
DENTON, TX 52 27 50 27 49 / 0 0 0 5 10
MCKINNEY, TX 52 28 49 27 50 / 0 0 0 5 10
DALLAS, TX 54 32 50 33 51 / 0 0 0 5 10
TERRELL, TX 55 30 49 29 50 / 0 0 0 5 10
CORSICANA, TX 55 32 51 32 47 / 0 0 0 5 10
TEMPLE, TX 57 32 52 32 50 / 0 0 0 20 20
MINERAL WELLS, TX 52 27 49 28 49 / 0 0 0 10 10

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

05/30

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

606 PM CST SAT DEC 10 2011

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
215 PM CST SAT DEC 10 2011

FORECAST CONCERNS FOCUS ON THE DRIZZLE POTENTIAL FOR SUN
NIGHT-MON...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY MONDAY
MORNING.

WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLATED TO MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TONIGHT...SPINNING ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
LATE SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY. NICE FETCH OF 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT
AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE...NOSING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY 06Z MON
AS THE LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE. LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION ALSO
KICKING IN...WITH SOME ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ON THE 280-295 K SFCS FROM
06Z MON TO 00Z TUE. THIS SOUTHWEST FETCH WILL ALSO BE RIDING OVER AN
EXISTING SNOW PACK...PICKING UP SOME MOISTURE. RH FIELDS SHOW THE
INCREASE IN THE LOW SATURATION OVERNIGHT SUN...AND EXPECT AN AREA OF
STRATUS TO ADVECTIVE/DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS A RESULT.
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ALSO POINT TO THE LIKELIHOOD OF LOW STRATUS
SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH THESE CLOUDS WILL
COME THE POTENTIAL FOR PCPN.

THE LOW LEVEL THERMODYNAMICS AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BRING SOME
BROADSCALE LIFT THROUGH THE STRATUS...AND SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO INDUCE
AREAS OF PCPN. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT ICE WILL NOT BE PRESENT
IN THE CLOUDS...AND THUS DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE ARE THE PROBABLE
PCPN TYPES. MOISTURE COULD BE DEEP ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MORE OF A RAIN
PROCESS AT TIMES MONDAY...BUT DRIZZLE LOOKS A BIT MORE FAVORABLE AT
THIS MOMENT. THAT SAID...THE NAM/GFS/GEM ALSO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. DEPENDING ON TEMPS...
THERE WILL BE THE THREAT FOR SOME LIGHT ICING. BETTER CHANCES DURING
THE MORNING RUSH HOUR AND THEN AGAIN LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY MON MORNING...AND
THIS SCENARIO WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY.

ON TUESDAY...ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE WILL BE APPROACHING
THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SOME MORE LOW LEVEL WARMING WITH THIS
FEATURE...BUT IMPACTS FROM IT LOOK TO COME TUESDAY NIGHT-WED. MORE
ON THIS SYSTEM BELOW IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE UPSWING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS WINDS
BECOME MORE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. LOOKING FOR ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS THROUGH
THE MIDDLE PART OF THE NEW WORK WEEK...WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 20S.
THIS WARMING WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR LOW CLOUDS/DRIZZLE SUN
NIGHT-MONDAY AS THE WARMING MELTS THE SNOW COVER...HELPING TO THE
SATURATE THE BOUNDARY LAYER.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
215 PM CST SAT DEC 10 2011

SOUTHWEST FLOW A LOFT RETURNS FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...AND
WITH IT SOME INDECISION ON THE MODELS ON TIMING/POSITIONING OF A
COUPLE WEATHER SYSTEMS. TUE NIGHT/WED THE EC/GFS/GEM ALL SUGGEST
THAT WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL PUSH ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY...WITH SOME THERMODYNAMIC RESPONSE IN THE LOW LEVELS.
THE EC LOOKS A BIT MORE ROBUST THAN THE OTHER TWO...ALTHOUGH ALL
WOULD FAVOR AT LEAST SMALL CHANCES. GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
THAT DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE WOULD BE POSSIBILITIES. WILL NOT ADD
THAT MENTION TO THE FORECAST YET...BUT THE POTENTIAL WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED.

NEXT SYSTEM COMES ON THIS WEAKER SYSTEM/S HEALS...AND WILL PACK MORE
OF A PUNCH. MODEL DIFFERENCES MAKES PLACEMENT AND TIMING PROBLEMATIC
THOUGH...WITH THE GFS FARTHER SOUTHEAST THAN THE GEM/EC...AND THE EC
FARTHEST NORTHWEST. THE GFS WOULD BRING A GLANCING BLOW TO SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...MORE IN THE EC...WHILE THE GEM WOULD
PLACE THE MAIN SNOW BAND ACROSS THE HEART OF THE LOCAL AREA. WILL
HOLD WITH THE CONSENSUS SOLUTION FOR NOW...BUT IT IS A STORM SYSTEM
TO KEEP AN EYE ON. THIS STORM...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME FREEZING
DRIZZLE RIGHT BEFORE IT...WILL BRING SOME TRAVEL IMPACTS TO PARTS OF
THE REGION FOR THE LATER PART OF THE NEW WORK WEEK.

.AVIATION...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
542 PM CST SAT DEC 10 2011

VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AT BOTH
TAF SITES. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SETTLE ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY REGION AND A SURFACE LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA
/ NORTHERN PLAINS REGION. GENERALLY SOUTHERLY WINDS BETWEEN 10 AND
15 KTS THROUGH THE EVENING CAN BE EXPECTED. DURING THE
OVERNIGHT...THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL DECOUPLE AT KLSE ALLOWING
WINDS TO DROP BETWEEN 7 AND 9 KTS. MAIN CHALLENGE AT KLSE IS
THREAT OF LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR WHERE BOTH RUC AND NAM BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SURFACE WIND LESS THAN 10 KTS WITH A 32-34 KT
WIND AT 2000 FT THIS EVENING CONTINUING THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY. ARX
VAD WIND PROFILE SHOWS 30 KT WIND AT 3000 FT THIS EVENING SO THIS
WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED...PARTICULARLY WHEN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER DECOUPLES.

FOR SUNDAY...CONTINUED TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL AGAIN LEAD TO
SOME OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS AT KRST...ONCE MIXING COMMENCES
DURING THE DAYTIME. WARM AND MOIST AIR LIFTING NORTH...COMBINED
WITH A MELTING SNOW PACK COULD LEAD TO LOW STRATUS / FOG AT KRST.
THINKING IS THAT ENOUGH MIXING WOULD PREVENT THIS DURING THE
DAY...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR.

.ARX
WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... 215 PM CST SAT DEC 10 2011

WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.

SHORT TERM... RIECK
LONG TERM.... RIECK
AVIATION..... ZT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PUEBLO CO

1001 PM MST SAT DEC 10 2011

.AVIATION...

LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 H
OVR ALL OF SE CO. AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS AFD...THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE THAT SOME LOCALIZED AND BRIEF PC FG COULD DEVELOP
IN THE SAN LUIS VALLEY SUN MORNING...BUT THE PROBABILITY IS TOO
LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAF FOR KALS. ANY FG OR BR SHOULD DISSIPATE
QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE. ROSE

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 PM MST SAT DEC 10 2011/

SHORT TERM...
(TONIGHT AND SUNDAY)

WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. THE FLOW ALOFT TONIGHT
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WESTERLY WITH A LEE SFC TROF DEVELOPING.
THE WESTERLY WINDS NEAR THE MTS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS A BIT WARMER THAN
THEY WERE LAST NIGHT. TEMPS OVR THE SERN PLAINS WL ALSO BE A LITTLE
WARMER MOST AREAS. THE SAN LUIS VALLEY HOWEVER SHOULD STILL SEE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO FOR LOW TEMPS TONIGHT. THE NAM
BUFKIT SOUNDING FOR KALS SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS AND FOG
DEVELOPING. WE DIDN`T SEE THAT HAPPEN THIS MORNING AND I HAVE LOW
CONFIDENCE THAT IT WILL HAPPEN TONIGHT. THE RUC AND NAM SOUNDINGS
FOR KLHX AND KLAA ALSO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPING
AGAIN. I AM NOT REAL CONFIDENT IN THIS EITHER. SO FOR NOW WL LEAVE
OUT THE MENTION OF CLOUDS AND/OR FOG.

ANOTHER DRY DAY IS EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH BEING A LITTLE WARMER THAN
TODAY IN MOST AREAS...ALTHOUGH THE SAN LUIS VALLEY MAY SEE SIMILAR
OR JUST SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS THAN TODAY. THE NAM IS SHOWING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WORKING ITS WAY NORTHWARD SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND INTO
THE FAR SERN CORNER OF THE STATE (MOSTLY BACA COUNTY)...SO WE WL
PROBABLY SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS OVR THAT AREA.

LONG TERM...
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)

METEOROLOGICAL ISSUES THIS LONGER TERM CYCLE INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT
LIMITED TO POPS...POTENTIAL SNOW AMOUNTS(ESPECIALLY OVER SECTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN MOUNTAINS)...GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES
AND TEMPERATURES.

RECENT LONGER TERM MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THAT THE DRY SOUTHWEST
UPPER FLOW OF SUNDAY NIGHT INTO AT LEAST EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON
WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES(AS CLOSED UPPER
LOW DEVELOPS OVER FAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BY 06Z TUESDAY AND THEN
MOVES INTO THE 4-CORNERS REGION BY TUESDAY NIGHT) FROM LATER
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO AT LEAST TUESDAY EVENING(ESPECIALLY OVER
ZONE 68/EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS WHERE LATEST MODEL PROJECTIONS
INDICATE THAT SNOW AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 12 INCHES MAY OCCUR FROM
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...I.E. MY 5TH AND 6TH PERIODS).

AT THIS TIME...WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY WINTER HIGHLIGHTS FOR NOW SINCE
EVENT IS STILL A BIT TOO FAR OUT IN TIME...HOWEVER IF LATEST
COMPUTER MODEL TRENDS PERSIST...WFO PUEBLO WILL LIKELY BE ISSUING
WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS SUCH AS ZONE 68
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...PLEASE STAY TUNED.

ELSEWHERE...AS INITIAL UPPER SYSTEM PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION FROM
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...ANTICIPATE INCREASED CLOUD/SHOWER
ACTIVITY IN COMBINATION WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

FORECAST DISTRICT THEN RECEIVES A BRIEF RESPITE THURSDAY BEFORE NEXT
CLOSED LOW TRAVELS FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY AND
SETTLES OVER FAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FROM FRIDAY EVENING INTO
SATURDAY.

THIS NEXT UPPER SYSTEM SHOULD AGAIN IMPACT WESTERN AND NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWFA WITH UNSETTLED CONDITIONS FROM LATER THURSDAY
INTO AT LEAST FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH PRIMARY PRECIPITATION FOCUS WITH
THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO REMAIN WELL SOUTH THROUGH SOUTHWEST OF THE
CWFA DURING THIS TIME-FRAME.

IN ADDITION...TEMPERATURES GENERALLY RUNNING NEAR OR BELOW MID-DECEMBER
SEASONAL AVERAGES ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE LONGER TERM.
FINALLY...GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES FROM TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN BY NEXT FRIDAY(ESPECIALLY EASTERN
SECTIONS).

AVIATION...

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT KCOS AND KPUB. KALS
WL LIKELY HAVE VFR CONDITIONS DURING THIS PERIOD AS WELL...HOWEVER
ONE MODEL SOUNDING IS SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
STRATUS/FOG TONIGHT. SINCE IT DIDN`T HAPPEN THIS MORNING AND THE
MODEL HAD FORECAST IT YESTERDAY...MY CONFIDENCE IN THE STATUS/FOG
DEVELOPING IS LOW AND WL LEAVE IT OUT OF THE TAF.

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

44/10

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL

1223 AM CST SUN DEC 11 2011

.AVIATION...
CONCERN WILL BE WITH LOW CLOUDS AND CIGS. STRATUS CONTINUES TO
MOVE NEWD INTO SOUTHEAST NE AND APPROACHING NW MO. LOW LEVEL
WARM... MOIST ADVECTION NEXT 24 HOURS ON BACKSIDE OF DEPARTING
SFC RIDGE SUPPORTIVE OF LOW CLOUDS MOVING AND/OR DEVELOPING
ACROSS REGION. HRRR AND RUC BACKUP MODELS ONLY ONES THAT HAVE
HANDLE ON STRATUS... THUS LEANED HEAVILY TOWARD FOR 06Z TAFS.
PRESSURE FALLS SHOWING UP ACROSS NORTHEAST IA AND STRATUS ALSO
OVER NORTHERN WI HAS BEEN DEVELOPING SOME TO SW... AND WILL
NEED TO WATCH FOR THIS TO CONTINUE OVRNGT THAT COULD BRING SOME
LOW CLOUDS VCNTY OF KDBQ TOWARD DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE... FOLLOWED
HRRR AND RUC BACKUP TIMING OF MID AM THROUGH MIDDAY ON LOW CLOUDS
INTO TERMINALS WITH IFR CIGS AND JUST LEFT IN FOR DURATION OF
FCST THROUGH SUN EVE. HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME LIFTING DUE TO DIURNAL
EFFECTS... AND ALSO CONCERNS WITH SOME EROSION OF DECK WITH
MIXING. SOME LIGHT FOG EXPECTED AS WELL WITH VSBYS GENERALLY
2-6SM. WINDS GENERALLY S/SE TNGT AROUND 10 KTS. SOME LLWS POSSIBLE
VCNTY OF KDBQ WHERE 925 MB WINDS ON BLUE RIVER PROFILER AT 40 KTS.
MODELS SUGGEST THE CORE OF STRONGER WINDS 950-925 MB TO PUSH INTO
WI NEXT FEW HRS AND SO HAVE NOT PUT IN LLWS FOR KDBQ ATTIM. WINDS
WILL BE FROM S/SW AT 11-18 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS IN L20 KTS POSSIBLE
DURING AFTN.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM CST SAT DEC 10 2011/

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WICHITA KS

306 AM CST SUN DEC 11 2011

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE TUE-WED TIME
FRAME.

SYNOPSIS:
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS ARE IN BETWEEN A SHORTWAVE THAT IS
DEPARTING OFF OF THE EAST COAST AND ANOTHER ONE THAT IS STARTING TO
DIG OFF OF THE WEST COAST. AT THE SURFACE THE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY INTO CENTRAL TX WITH LEE TROUGHING STRENGTHENING OVER
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS HAS RESULTED IN SW SURFACE WINDS
INCREASING OVERNIGHT.

TODAY-TONIGHT:
DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING OVER PORTIONS
OF THE FLINT HILLS INTO SE KS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THE FOG WILL
NOT LINGER INTO THE LATE MORNING HOURS AND SHOULD LIFT BY 15Z.

JUST LIKE YESTERDAY THE CLOUD FORECAST WILL BE VERY CHALLENGING TODAY
AND WILL PLAY HAVOC WITH TEMPS. SATELLITE CURRENTLY SHOWS A LARGE
AREA OF STRATUS EXTENDING FROM THE TX PANHANDLE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KS
AND SLOWLY WORKING TO THE NORTHEAST. WHILE WE MAY SEE A FEW BRIEF
BREAKS THIS MORNING...BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS FEEL THAT LOW CLOUDS
WILL ENCOMPASS THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER EVEN WITH
CLOUD COVER...GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL WARM ADVECT HIGHER TEMPS INTO
THE AREA WITH ALL LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40S TODAY. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTH
CENTRAL KS TONIGHT WHICH WILL KEEP LOW CLOUDS IN PLACE. WILL GO
AHEAD AND LEAVE SOME DRIZZLE AND LIGHT FOG IN LATE TONIGHT FOR
CENTRAL KS...BUT BECAUSE OF LACK OF LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
DEEP SATURATION...NOT TOO IMPRESSED WITH WIDESPREAD HEAVY DRIZZLE
CHANCES.

MON-WED NIGHT:
BY MON AFTERNOON THE UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL BE DIGGING OFF OF THE
SOUTHERN CA COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO CONTINUE TO STREAM
INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. BY MON NIGHT ISENTROPIC LIFT
AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL INCREASE ENOUGH THAT SOME RAIN SHOWERS
SHOULD DEVELOP. SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON FOR LATER SHIFTS WILL BE
THE POSITION OF THE COLD FRONT FOR THE LATE MON NIGHT TIME FRAME.
THE NAM IS QUITE A BIT FURTHER SOUTH WITH THIS FRONT COMPARED TO THE
GFS AND ECMWF. IF THE NAM VERIFIES THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER CENTRAL KS. HOWEVER
SINCE THE NAM IS CURRENTLY THE OUTLIER...WILL LEAVE TEMPS ON MON
NIGHT OVER CENTRAL KS JUST ABOVE FREEZING.

THE UPPER WAVE IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY APPROACH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
ON TUE NIGHT INTO WED. THIS IS WHEN WE CURRENTLY HAVE THE HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE IN MUCH OF THE AREA SEEING RAINFALL AS THE UPPER DYNAMICS
DIRECTLY IMPACT THE AREA. CURRENTLY EXPECTING PRECIP CHANCES TO END
VERY QUICKLY WED NIGHT WITH MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA DRY BY EARLY
THU MORNING. THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT ALLOW
ANY OF THE HIGHER THETA-E AIR TO BE WRAPPED AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF
THE LOW WHERE IT COULD INTERACT WITH THE COLDER AIR. THEREFORE
STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WINTER WEATHER THROUGH
THIS TIME PERIOD.

THU-SUN:
BY THU AFTERNOON THIS WAVE WILL BE AFFECTING THE EASTERN SEABOARD AS
ANOTHER UPPER IMPULSE DIVES OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH FRI. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE ON
DEVELOPING ANOTHER UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN CA BY FRI AFTERNOON AND
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

LAWSON

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU

VERY TOUGH FORECAST WITH 00Z MODELS CONTINUING TO STRUGGLE WITH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. LATEST RUC DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AS GOOD AS
EARLIER RUNS...SO THE OVERNIGHT PART OF THE FORECAST PRIMARILY
BASED ON OBSERVATIONS/TRENDS AND BEST ESTIMATE OF HOW CONDITIONS
WILL EVOLVE. WORST CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING ON EDGES OF
STRATUS SO FAR THIS EVENING. ANTICIPATE THAT STRATUS/PATCHY DENSE
FOG WILL INCREASE OVER VIRTUALLY ENTIRE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...AS WEAK SOUTH FLOW ADVECTING SLIGHTLY WARMER/MOISTER AIR
UPSLOPE INTO CHILLED AND SATURATED AIRMASS. NOD IS GIVEN TO THE
NAM WHICH STILL SUGGEST INFLUX OF 850MB-700MB MOISTURE MID TO LATE
MORNING...WHICH WILL LIKELY KEEP MANY AREAS OVERCAST THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD. EXCEPTION MAY BE SOUTHEAST KS ONCE AGAIN...BUT DO
EXPECT MOISTURE TO ARRIVE THERE BY LATE AFTERNOON. IF THE 850MB-
700MB MOISTURE ARRIVES PRIOR TO BURNING THROUGH THE VERY LOW
CLOUDS...COULD BE STUCK IN IFR THROUGHOUT MOST/ALL DAY. APPEARS
THAT KRSL/KHUT/KSLN WILL SEE MORE MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP
DURING THE EVENING. -HOWERTON

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 46 35 48 36 / 10 10 10 20
HUTCHINSON 44 35 47 35 / 10 10 10 20
NEWTON 44 34 48 36 / 10 10 10 20
ELDORADO 45 35 48 36 / 10 10 10 20
WINFIELD-KWLD 47 36 49 37 / 10 10 10 30
RUSSELL 43 33 44 33 / 10 10 10 20
GREAT BEND 45 34 45 34 / 10 10 10 20
SALINA 46 35 46 34 / 10 10 10 20
MCPHERSON 44 35 47 35 / 10 10 10 20
COFFEYVILLE 48 35 48 37 / 10 10 10 30
CHANUTE 46 34 48 36 / 10 10 10 30
IOLA 45 34 48 36 / 10 10 10 30
PARSONS-KPPF 47 34 48 37 / 10 10 10 30

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR KSZ070>072-
094>096-098.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WICHITA KS

1138 PM CST SAT DEC 10 2011

.UPDATE...

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 545 PM CST SAT DEC 10 2011/

AVIATION...00Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM CST SAT DEC 10 2011/

DISCUSSION...

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE STRATUS/FOG TONIGHT INTO SUN...THEN CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FOR TUE THROUGH THU.

KETCHAM

AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU

MCGUIRE

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DODGE CITY KS

1130 PM CST SAT DEC 10 2011

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE...

SATELLITE LOOP INDICATING STATUS STARTING TO SPREAD INTO PARTS OF
SOUTHWEST KANSAS AS OF 05Z. BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION AND THE NEW NAM
AND RUC MODEL SOUNDINGS 015-025 CIGS SHOULD COVER ALL THREE TAF
SITES BY OR SHORTLY AFTER 06Z. THE FOG DEVELOPMENT HOWEVER NOW
DOES NOT LOOK AS FAVORABLE AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. AREAS OF FOG
STILL WILL BE LIKELY BUT DENSE FOG NOW APPEARS TO BE MORE PATCHY
IN NATURE.

AFTER DAYBREAK THE 25-35KT WINDS FORECASTED TO BE LOCATED JUST
ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL BEGIN TO MIX DOWN AS THE SURFACE AS THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS SOUTHWEST
KANSAS IN RESPONSE TO FALLING PRESSURES ALONG THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES. WIND SPEEDS OF AROUND 20 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF
SITES BY LATE MORNING. -RB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 PM CST SAT DEC 10 2011/

DISCUSSION...

DAYS 1-2...

DAYS 3-7...

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 33 26 43 36 / 0 0 10 10
GCK 38 25 42 32 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 40 26 42 28 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 38 26 43 34 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 35 25 42 34 / 0 0 10 10
P28 34 27 45 37 / 0 0 10 10

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

FN42/12/12

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

1225 AM EST SUN DEC 11 2011

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 06Z TAFS

.SYNOPSIS...

.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION /TNGT AND SUN/...

MAIN FCST CONCERNS DURING THIS RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD WL BE TEMPS
IN WAD PATTERN THAT WL DOMINATE.

.LONG TERM /00Z MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY/...

LARGE SCALE PATTERN WISE...MODELS SEEM TO HAVE THE SAME GENERAL
IDEA. A 500MB LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE ARCTIC CIRCLE FROM WEDNESDAY TO
HUDSON BAY THURSDAY AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE
INTO THE NWRN CONUS FROM THE NRN PACIFIC. THIS WILL KICK A DEEP
500MB LOW ALREADY IN PLACE OVER SRN CA INTO THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE UPPER LOW WILL WEAKEN TO A WEAK TROUGH AND MOVE UP THE E
SIDE OF A NEW DEEP TROUGH OVER THE W CENTRAL CONUS...WITH THE
SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE CWA DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THURSDAY.
MODELS IN THE PAST WERE SHOWING THE UPPER SYSTEM MOVING OVER AS A
DEEPER CLOSED LOW...BUT HAVE BEEN TRENDING WEAKER AND IN MORE OF AN
OPEN WAVE ALOFT.

THE SFC LOW EXITS EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE W FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY...AS 850MB TEMPS FALL TO AOB -15C. WITH W-NW
WINDS...LES WOULD APPEAR A LIKELY RESULT...BUT MOISTURE...WIND
DIRECTIONS AND OTHER FINICKY INGREDIENTS WILL HAVE TO BE SORTED AS
TIME GOES ON.
&&

.AVIATION /FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

MAIN CONCERN IS FOR LLWS OVERNIGHT AND POTENTIAL REDEVELOPMENT LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG WAA CONTINUES OVER THE AREA WITH A STABLE
POOL OF COLD AIR AT THE SFC. WINDS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INCREASE ABOVE
THE INVERSION...CONTINUING LLWS THAT WILL PERSIST THOUGH THE NIGHT
UNTIL MIXING OUT AFTER DAYBREAK. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT COMBINED WITH
A SHALLOW LAYER OF HIGHER RHS PRODUCING LOW MVFR CLOUDINESS OVER
NORTHERN WI THAT CONTINUES TO EXPAND INTO UPPER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS CLOUD COVER SHOULD QUICKLY END AS BOUNDARY LAYER MIXES
OUT. WINDS TO DECOUPLE AGAIN WITH SUNSET TOMORROW EVENING. BUFKIT
INDICATES STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TO BE AT KSAW SO WILL INCLUDE LLWS
THERE.

.MARINE /FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE/...

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...KC
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...RJT
MARINE...KC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO

1019 PM CST Sat Dec 10 2011

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...

DEROCHE

.AVIATION...

For the 00Z tafs, the weak high pressure system has shifted east
with a return to light south southwest flow. Models suggest VFR
conditions through the period as a weak high pressure ridge aloft builds
across the Central Plains. However, there has been a LIFR stratus
deck in eastern Kansas, moving northeast. It appears that nocturnal
cooling along with advection will allow this deck to move into the
terminals aft 07Z. IFR conditions are expected with possible ceilings
as low as 300 feet between 08z to 12z. The cloud deck is quite thin with
several breaks. With increasing mixing in the morning hours, the
cloud deck should quickly erode. However, confidence in the timing is
low.

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

WFO EAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTH PLATTE NE

358 AM CST SUN DEC 11 2011

.DISCUSSION...

A PRETTY INVOLVED FORECAST IS TAKING SHAPE FOR MID WEEK AS MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS ALL INDICATE A TROUGH DIGGING DOWN THE WEST COAST OF
NORTH AMERICA...THEN EJECTING ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION TOWARD
THE PLAINS. INCONSISTENCY FROM RUN TO RUN IN HOW THE MODELS
EVENTUALLY EJECT THE SYSTEM HAVE CREATED LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS
POINT IN TIME...ESPECIALLY CONCERNING PRECIPITATION TYPE...AS
RAIN...FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW WOULD ALL BE WITHIN THE REALM OF
POSSIBILITY. BUT BEFORE DIVING INTO THE MID WEEK SYSTEM...THE
FORECAST TODAY MAY BE TRICKY AS WELL. NEAR TERM SOLUTIONS ARE
PICKING UP ON A THIN ENVELOPE OF BL MOISTURE...PROBABLY FROM THE
EXTENSIVE ERODING SNOW PACK THAT RESIDES FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...AND TO A GREATER EXTENT...MOISTURE ADVECTION
FROM THE SOUTH. SEVERAL OF THE NEAR/SHORT TERM SOLUTIONS SUCH AS
THE HRRR AND NAM DEVELOP STRATUS TODAY ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN
ZONES...WHICH WOULD LIMIT AFTERNOON HIGHS AOB THE MELTING POINT.
IN FACT...MET GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING A HIGH OF JUST 30F THIS
AFTERNOON AT LBF...COMPARED TO THE MAV GUIDANCE OF 39F. GENERALLY
SIDED TOWARD THE WARMER GUIDANCE OUTPUT...WITH EXPECTED HIGHS ACROSS
OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. THIS IS BASED OFF
OF RECENT SATELLITE TRENDS OF THE LOWER CEILING BUILDING EAST...AND
THAT THE 00Z NAM INDICATES THAT THE 30-60 AGL MB RH IS NOT
SATURATED. ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST NEBRASKA...DRIER BL RH WILL AID
IN WARMING AFTERNOON T/S IN THE LOW TO MID 40S ONCE AGAIN.

A WEAK BOUNDARY SLIDES THROUGH THE CWA EARLY ON MONDAY COOLING
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 30S CWA WIDE...WITH LOWS MONDAY MORNING
RETURNING INTO THE TEENS AND LOW 20S. BUFR SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE A THIN ENVELOPE OF MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE EARLY MONDAY
MORNING WHICH COULD LEAD TO THE FORMATION OF PATCHY LOW FOG...WILL
CARRY THE MENTION OF -FG GENERALLY SOUTHEAST OF A CHAMBERS TO NORTH
PLATTE LINE...WHERE SLIGHTLY STRONGER MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE
GULF WILL CREATE A DEEPER SATURATED PROFILE.

EARLY TUESDAY MORNING IS WHEN THINGS POTENTIALLY GET INTERESTING.
DEEPER MOISTURE TRANSPORT ON THE 280K THROUGH 290K ISENTROPIC
SURFACES COULD BRING SOME LIGHT QPF INTO CENTRAL...AND SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. CROSS SECTIONS...WITH SUPPORT FROM BUFR SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE TOP OF THE SATURATED LAYER SLIGHTLY ABOVE
0C...BUT COOLING RAPIDLY TOWARD THE SURFACE. NOT SEEING INITIALLY
ANY SEEDER FEEDER PROCESSES GOING...SO DRIZZLE OR LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN WOULD BE THE EXPECTED PTYPE EARLY ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE THROUGH THE DAY...AS DEEPER MOISTURE AND
BETTER FORCING ARRIVES WITH THE EJECTING WAVE. THE NAM....GFS AND
EURO ALL NOW INDICATE PROFILES FAVORABLE FOR FREEZING RAIN ACROSS
OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONE BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE
FROM THERE ON...AS THE GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO BE PROGRESSIVE BY
PHASING WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM...WHEREAS THE EUROPEAN CAMP HAS
REVERTED BACK TO A CLOSED NEGATIVELY TILTED H5 LOW. THE QUICKER
SOLUTIONS WOULD INDICATE THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION THAT WOULD
FALL WOULD BE AS FREEZING RAIN...ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF A
NORTH PLATTE TO AINSWORTH LINE. HOWEVER...THE SLOWER SOLUTION WOULD
ALLOW FOR MORE COOLER AIR TO BE DRAWN INTO THE SYSTEM...THUS FORCING
A QUICKER CHANGE OVER TO SNOW...WITH POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS. SINCE THERE CONTINUES TO BE INCONSISTENCY WITH RUN
TO RUN SOLUTIONS...AND SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE EVENTUAL
OUTCOME OF THE SYSTEM WHEN IT REACHES THE PLAINS...FELT IT WAS BEST
TO CARRY FORWARD LOW END CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE
CWA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...LEAVING THE HIGHEST POPS
TARGETING OUR EASTERN ZONES.

.AVIATION...
OR THE KLBF AND KVTN TERMINALS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY.

ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM KBBW TO KONL TODAY...FOG AND STRATUS
ARE POSSIBLE WITH CIGS BLO 1000 FT AGL AND VISBYS BLO 1SM IN FOG.
WEST OF THIS LINE TO A LINE EXTENDING FROM KIML...TO KLBF...TO 40W
OF KONL...PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE THROUGH MID MORNING WITH VISBYS
DOWN TO 1 TO 3 SM. AFTER MID MORNING...FOG SHOULD BURN OFF...WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF LOCATIONS EAST OF A LINE FROM KBBW TO KONL. IN
THESE AREAS...IF STRATUS DOES DEVELOP...IT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE...UNLIMITED CEILINGS ARE FORECAST
WITH SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE AFTER 06Z MONDAY. WINDS AT
THE KLBF AND KVTN TERMINALS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST
TODAY AT UNDER 10 KTS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH SPEEDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR BLO 10 KTS.

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM/EXTENDED...JACOBS
AVIATION...CLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE

1117 PM CST SAT DEC 10 2011

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KOMA AND KLNK.

LOW CLOUDS WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES HAD REACHED NEAR A HSI-BIE-
FNB LINE AT 0515Z AND WILL SPREAD ACROSS TAF SITES IN 07Z-10Z
PERIOD. 06Z FORECAST INCLUDED CIGS BELOW 1K FT AGL WITH
VISIBILITIES IN 3-4SM RANGE. IN ADDITION...WIND SHEAR FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS CONTINUED AS LOW LEVEL WINDS REMAIN BRISK
ABOVE THE SURFACE. BREAKS IN CLOUD DECK OVER CENTRAL KANSAS COULD
ALLOW FOR SOME IMPROVEMENT SUNDAY MORNING AND THIS WAS REFLECTED
IN FORECAST. HOWEVER...AREA COULD FILL IN AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES
AND TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. ANY IMPROVEMENT WILL BE
SHORT-LIVED AS EVEN MORE MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO ERN NEBRASKA LATE
SUNDAY BRINGING DETERIORATING CONDITIONS. DRIZZLE OR FREEZING
DRIZZLE COULD ALSO DEVELOP...BUT WAS NOT MENTIONED IN THIS TAF
CYCLE.

CHERMOK

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 836 PM CST SAT DEC 10 2011/

UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR INCREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT SRN ZONES.

DISCUSSION...
LOW CLOUDS IN KANSAS CONTINUE TO PUSH NE AND SATELLITE TRENDS
PLUS LOW LEVEL RH FORECAST FROM HRRR INDICATED FOR THIS TO
CONTINUE. THUS INCREASED SKY GRIDS SRN 1/2 LATER TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. BUMPED UP LOWS A FEW DEGREES SOME AREAS BECAUSE OF
CLOUDS BUT WITH SNOW COVER ANY DECREASE IN WINDS COULD ALLOW THEM
TO QUICKLY FALL PER 02Z LNK OR EARLIER OFF/TQE. CLOUDS ALSO
CONTINUE TO HAVE A BACK EDGE SO DID NOT KEEP SUNDAY MOCLOUDY ALL
DAY...WITH SOME MIXING OR MOVING OUT POSSIBLE BUT THIS WILL BE
FURTHER ADDRESSED WITH OVERNIGHT FORECAST.

AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS WITH IFR CEILINGS CONTINUE TO ADVANCE NEWD AND NOW
APPEAR LIKELY TO IMPACT KLNK A LITTLE AROUND 07Z AND OMAHA BETWEEN
08Z AND 09Z. AMD TO FOLLOW.

CHERMOK

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 520 PM CST SAT DEC 10 2011/

AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KOMA AND KLNK.

CHERMOK

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 PM CST SAT DEC 10 2011/

ZAPOTOCNY

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

DERGAN

AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KLNK...KOFK.

DEE

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

99/99

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LUBBOCK TX

1151 PM CST SAT DEC 10 2011

.AVIATION...
LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT KLBB EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...
WITH LITTLE IMPROVEMENT UNTIL MIDDAY WITH SLOWLY IMPROVING CEILING
AND VISIBILITIES. LIGHT PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO PREDOMINATE...WITH
INITIAL TEMPERATURES VERY CLOSE TO FREEZING...THOUGH FAVORED THE
MOST RECENT TRENDS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN FREEZING. SHOWERS SHOULD
EXPAND INTO KCDS AS WELL BY 08Z TO 10Z SUNDAY MORNING WITH DROP OF
MVFR CIGS AT THAT TIME TOWARDS IFR LEVELS. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD
THEN DOMINATE FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY. RMCQUEEN

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 943 PM CST SAT DEC 10 2011/

UPDATE...
VISIBILITIES WERE RAPIDLY DROPPING FROM WEST TO EAST ON THE CAPROCK
LATE THIS EVENING...IN SOME CASES TO NEAR ZERO. THIS TREND IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SPREADING TO MOST AREAS ON THE CAPROCK BY
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE REST OF THE FORECAST WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE MORNING STILL LOOK ON TRACK.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 554 PM CST SAT DEC 10 2011/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 235 PM CST SAT DEC 10 2011/

PERIOD OF TRANQUIL WEATHER LATE WEEK BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. 12Z RUNS LOOKING A BIT MORE FAVORABLE
FOR PRECIP NEXT SATURDAY BUT A BIT TOO EARLY TO INTRODUCE POPS
ATTM.

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZING FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ021>024-027>030-033>036-039>042.

99/99/05

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

315 AM CST SUN DEC 11 2011

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
315 AM CST SUN DEC 11 2011

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS CENTERED ON FREEZING DRIZZLE AND ICING
POTENTIAL FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND THE NEED FOR A
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY.

DATA ANALYSIS AT 08Z SHOWS MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. HOWEVER...SEVERAL PATCHES OF STRATUS ARE SEEN. THE FIRST
OVER NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...WITH ITS EDGE IN TAYLOR COUNTY AND
THE SECOND ONE WHOSE LEADING EDGE IS MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST IOWA. PRESSURE
GRADIENT REMAINS RATHER TIGHT ACROSS THE AREA AND WITH THE WINDS
REMAINING UP...TEMPERATURES HAVEN/T FALLEN MUCH THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS.

11.00Z MODELS ONCE AGAIN OFFER SIMILAR SOLUTIONS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. IN THE NEAR TERM...QUIET WEATHER IS ON TAP FOR
TODAY AS WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES ON SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL
FLOW. 850MB TEMPERATURES IN THE +3 TO +4 CELSIUS RANGE WILL RESULT
IN SURFACE TEMPERATURES WELL INT THE 30S BY AFTERNOON...WITH SOME
LOWER 40S POSSIBLE IN THE WARMER VALLEY LOCATIONS. CAVEAT IS HOW
FAR NORTH THE SOUTHWEST IOWA STRATUS WILL GET. LATEST RUC SHOWS IT
REMAINING TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA...BUT SPEED DISTANCE TOOL
INDICATES IT MAY REACH NORTHEAST IOWA AROUND 14Z-15Z. THUS DID ADD
SOME EARLY MORNING CLOUDS TO THE GRIDS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST...BUT
SHOULD MIX OUT LATER THIS MORNING. IF THESE PERSIST THEN
TEMPERATURES MAY BE COOLER THAN FORECAST.

BIGGEST WEATHER CONCERN IN THE NEAR TERM BEGINS LATE TONIGHT AS A
SHORTWAVE ROTATES INTO MINNESOTA. NICE FETCH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTS NORTHWARD ACROSS IOWA INTO WISCONSIN. MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY
CONSISTENT IN STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AS INDICATED IN THE 925MB-850MB
RELATIVE HUMIDITY PROGS. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW SATURATION
OCCURRING...MAINLY AFTER 06Z FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SATURATED COLUMN
DEEPENS TO 2 KM BY 12Z MONDAY WITH LIFT THROUGH THE SATURATED
COLUMN AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE WAVE. ONCE AGAIN...BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
FROM BOTH THE GFS AND NAM REMAIN CONSISTENT IN THE LACK OF ICE IN
THE CLOUD AND THUS PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIQUID FORM...AND GIVEN
LIFT/SATURATION DEPTH EEL FRIZZING DRIZZLE THE MOST LIKELY
OUTCOME. BIGGEST QUESTION THEN WILL BE SURFACE TEMPERATURES WITH
PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION. MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE
SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES BY THE TIME THE PRECIPITATION BREAKS
OUT...GENERALLY IN THE 28 TO 31 DEGREE RANGE. AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE
LIGHT...BUT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO GLAZING WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO
MONDAY MORNING BEFORE WARMING CHANGES PRECIPITATION TO JUST
DRIZZLE. LOOKS LIKE THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF GLAZING WILL
OCCUR BETWEEN 09Z-18Z MONDAY. WITH STILL SOME QUESTION ON LOW
LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND WHEN SATURATION OCCURS AND AFTER
COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY
ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME AND ALLOW DAY SHIFT TO EXAMINE THE LATEST
DATA.

SURFACE TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN LOOK TO COOL MONDAY EVENING...BUT
LIFT WILL BE EXITING THE AREA WITH THE WAVE. HOWEVER...LOW LEVELS
REMAIN SATURATED AND AGAIN COULD SEE THE DRIZZLE BECOME FREEZING
DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH AT THIS TIME IT DOESN/T LOOK AS
WIDESPREAD...BUT WILL BEAR WATCHING FOR GLAZING POTENTIAL AGAIN.

QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED TUESDAY AS AREA IS IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS. BY
TUESDAY NIGHT THOUGH MOISTURE BEGINS TO SURGE NORTHWARD AGAIN AHEAD
OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL SPREAD
PRECIPITATION BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
315 AM CST SUN DEC 11 2011

CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH IN THIS TIME FRAME WITH REGARDS TO THE DETAILS
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS MODELS HAVE REALLY STRUGGLED WITH THE
SYSTEM PULLING OUT OF THE PLAINS. 11.00Z GEM NOW THE FASTEST WITH
THE SYSTEM WITH THE SURFACE LOW IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY 00Z
THURSDAY...WHILE THE GFS PLACES IT IN IOWA AND ECMWF IS THE SLOWEST
HOLDING IT BACK ALONG THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER. HOWEVER...THE
TRACK IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. WITH THESE DIFFERENCES STILL DIFFICULT TO DISCERN PRECIPITATION
TYPES THIS FAR OUT...BUT LATEST TRENDS WOULD SUGGEST BEST CHANCES
FOR ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW TO BE OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS.
WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION RAIN/SNOW POSSIBILITY. ONCE SYSTEM
EXITS..QUIET BUT COLD WEATHER EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

.AVIATION...THROUGH 06Z MONDAY
1137 PM CST SAT DEC 10 2011

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT THE WINDS WILL BE
THE BIGGEST CONCERN...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT. THE RIVER VALLEY HAS
DECOUPLED ENOUGH THAT WIND SHEAR IS LIKELY OCCURRING. SUSTAINED
WINDS AT KLSE HAVE BEEN RUNNING JUST UNDER 10 KNOTS WHILE THE VWP
FROM KARX SUGGEST WINDS OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS AT 3K FEET. THE BLUE
RIVER PROFILER SHOWS VERY SIMILAR WINDS AND SUGGEST THAT AT 2K
FEET THE WIND SPEEDS ARE NEAR 40 KNOTS. BOTH THE 11.00Z NAM AND
11.03Z RUC BUFKIT SOUNDINGS HOLD THE WINDS AT 2K FEET AT OR ABOVE
30 KNOTS INTO SUNDAY MORNING...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH THE INCLUSION
OF WIND SHEAR AT KLSE. SUSTAINED WINDS AT KRST ARE AROUND 15 KNOTS
AND AN AIRCRAFT SOUNDING OUT OF KMSP THIS EVENING AND THE 00Z KMPX
SOUNDING DO NOT SHOW AS STRONG OF WINDS AT 2K FEET...AROUND 25 TO
30 KNOTS...SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED THE WIND SHEAR FOR KRST.
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE PRETTY QUICKLY DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS SUNDAY...JUST BEYOND THIS TAF PERIOD. MVFR CLOUDS
EXPECTED TO MOVE IN ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF FZDZ DEVELOPING
BEFORE SUNRISE.

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
315 AM CST SUN DEC 11 2011

WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.

SHORT TERM...RABERDING
LONG TERM...RABERDING
AVIATION...04

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WICHITA KS

729 AM CST SUN DEC 11 2011

.UPDATE...
VISIBILITIES HAVE GREATLY IMPROVED IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS...THUS HAVE
CANCELLED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY. EXPECT VISIBILITIES TO
IMPROVE...BUT A DECK OF STRATUS SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE AREA FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 607 AM CST SUN DEC 11 2011/

AVIATION...12Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU

BOTH CIGS & VSBYS CONTINUE TO POSE PROBLEMS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
CONSIDERABLE VARIATIONS IN BOTH REGARDS. BY FAR THE WORST SITUATION IS
OVER KCNU WHERE 1/4 FZFG VV001 HAS SHROUDED THE TERMINAL SINCE 0652Z.
BOTH CIGS & VSBYS IMPROVE GREATLY JUST S OF THE TERMINAL...EVEN AS
CLOSE AS KCFV WITH CLEAR SKIES AND 3-5SM VSBYS HAVE PREVAILED ALL NGT.
HOWEVER IR IMAGERY DEPICTS FG TRYING TO DEVELOP SW OF THE TERMINAL. AS
SUCH AM RELUCTANT TO PLACE TERMINAL IN MVFR STATUS TIL ~16Z. KCNU WILL
REQUIRE VERY CLOSE ATTENTION DURING THIS 4-HOUR PERIOD. ALTHOUGH STILL
IN MVFR STATUS THE REMAINING TERIMALS ARE IN MUCH BETTER SHAPE WITH
3-5SM VSBYS & 2000-2800FT CIGS IN MOST AREAS. WITH STRONG LWR-DECK
TROF REMAINING POSITIONED ALONG FRONT RANGE...A BROAD FETCH OF RICH
LWR-DECK MOISTURE CONTINUING TO STREAM N/NW ACROSS KS DICTATES KEEPING
THESE TERMINALS IN MVFR STATUS THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON WITH WINDS
INCREASING TO 17-22KTS/20-25MPH SUSTAINED WITH ~30KT/35MPH GUSTS
LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 AM CST SUN DEC 11 2011/

DISCUSSION...

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE TUE-WED TIME
FRAME.

LAWSON

AVIATION...06Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WICHITA KS

607 AM CST SUN DEC 11 2011

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 AM CST SUN DEC 11 2011/

DISCUSSION...

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE TUE-WED TIME
FRAME.

LAWSON

AVIATION...06Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR KSZ070>072-
094>096-098.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

806 AM CST SUN DEC 11 2011

.UPDATE...

UPDATED SKY GRIDS/SAF/ZFP FOR TODAY TO ACCOUNT FOR STRATUS MOVING
NORTHEAST NEAR 25 KNOTS ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IA.
THIS PLACES THE LEADING EDGE INTO THE TWIN CITIES AROUND 18Z. ALSO
ADDED FOG TO SOUTH CENTRAL MN AS NEAR 30 DEGREE DEW POINTS PUSH ACROSS
THE SNOW COVER. RUC 950MB RH HAS A GREAT HANDLE ON THE SITUATION.
IT WOULD SUGGEST THE CLOUDS PUSHING ALL THE WAY TO NORTHERN WI BY
LATE AFTERNOON.

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 AM CST SUN DEC 11 2011/

SUMMARY...WILL KEEP THIS DISCUSSION SOMEWHAT SHORT AND SWEET AS
THERE HASN`T BEEN MUCH CHANGE IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST AND
PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS HAVE ALREADY ARTICULATED THE FREEZING DRIZZLE
THREAT SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. THERE ARE NOTABLE CHANGES
IN THE EXTENDED WITH RESPECT TO HOW THE GFS IS NOW HANDLING THE
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY SYSTEM.

FIRST OFF...HAVE WARMED TEMPS TODAY. WE`RE STARTING OFF QUITE WARM
AND WILL STILL BE WARM ADVECTING TODAY. WENT WITH TEMPS AROUND 50
OUT BY BUFFALO RIDGE WHERE LOCATIONS ARE STILL IN THE UPPER 30S AT
THIS HOUR WITH DOWNSLOPING IN FULL EFFECT. ACTUALLY HOPE THAT WE
WENT WARM ENOUGH IN SNOW FREE AREAS OF WESTERN MN. THERMAL
PROFILE...SUNSHINE...AND A FAVORABLE SOUTHWEST MIXING WIND WOULD
SUGGEST LOWER TO MID 40S ARE WELL WITHIN REACH FOR MANY LOCATIONS.
LOOKS LIKE WE`LL PROBABLY MIX TO AROUND 950MB AND THIS WOULD YIELD
PLENTY OF UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S OFF THE GFS...A FEW DEGREES
WARMER OFF THE NAM. MIXING TO 925MB WOULD PROVIDE READINGS IN THE
MID 40S...EVEN IN SOME OF OUR SNOW COVERED AREAS.

DRIZZLE EVENT STILL ON TRACK LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.
SURROUNDING OFFICES DISCUSSED THE POTENTIAL FOR A FREEZING RAIN
ADVISORY AND WILL DEFER TO THE DAY SHIFT...SEEMS LIKE A GOOD BET
THOUGH. THE BIGGER QUESTIONS ARE NOT SO MUCH WILL IT
DRIZZLE...BUT HOW MUCH AND HOW LONG DOES IT STAY FREEZING DRIZZLE.
I LIKE THE CHANGES MADE IN YESTERDAYS AFTERNOON FORECAST. PTYPE
SHOULD ALMOST EXCLUSIVELY BE DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE. DON`T SEE A
LOT OF OMEGA THAT WOULD INDICATE BIGGER DROP SIZE AND RAIN...AND
WE CERTAINLY DON`T APPEAR TO HAVE THE RH ALOFT FOR SNOW. HOPEFULLY
THE DAY SHIFT CAN BETTER DEFINE THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE DRIZZLE
AND ALSO HOW MUCH ICE ACCUMULATION WE`LL MANAGE WHEN TEMPS ARE BELOW
FREEZING.

WE`LL LIKELY END UP WITH 4 DAYS IN A ROW OF HIGHS CLIMBING ABOVE
FREEZING...BEGINNING TODAY...AND FINALLY COMING TO AN END AFTER
THE SYSTEM THAT PASSES THROUGH MID WEEK. STILL SOME ISSUES TO BE
WORKED OUT WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT ALL SIGNS UP TO THIS POINT
SUGGEST A MESSY FORECAST WITH MULTIPLE PRECIP TYPES. OF THE LATEST
00Z/06Z GUIDANCE...NAM IS THE FASTEST WITH THIS SYSTEM...FOLLOWED
BY THE GFS...AND THEN THE ECMWF. INTERESTING HOW THE GFS HAS
REVERTED BACK TO A SOLUTION QUITE SIMILAR TO IT`S OLD RUN AT
09.18Z AFTER YESTERDAY`S SOLUTIONS THAT WERE MUCH FURTHER SOUTH.
THERE`S AT LEAST MORE CONFIDENCE IN A WARM SOLUTION WHERE LIQUID
DROPS AND NOT ICE CRYSTALS WILL BE IN CONTROL UNTIL WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE HALF INCH OR SO OF QPF BEING SPIT OUT OF THE MODELS
SHOULD MOSTLY FALL AS RAIN. THE CONCERN IS THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE MAIN
BATCH OF ISENTROPIC LIFT...BEFORE EVENTUALLY SWITCHING OVER TO
RAIN WHEN TEMPS WARM DURING THE AFTERNOON. CERTAINLY A SYSTEM
WE`RE WATCHING CLOSELY AND SOMETHING WE`LL CONTINUE TO REFINE OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

.AVIATION... /12Z TAF ISSUANCE/

SEVERAL ISSUES AT HAND WITH THIS TAF SET - INITIAL LLWS...LOW
CLOUDS COMING IN TONIGHT...TIMING OF POTENTIALLY FROZEN PRECIP MON
MORNING. AS FOR LLWS...ASCENDING 12Z KMPX RAOB SHOWED 1 KFT WINDS
AS 240/43KT. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWED SPEEDS EVEN A FEW KTS HIGHER.
WITH SFC WINDS ARND 20008KT...THIS MEETS THE THRESHOLDS FOR LLWS
SO HAVE INCLUDED IT FOR THE FIRST 4-6 HRS OF EACH TAF. IF MIXING
IS STRONGER/DEEPER THAN ANTICIPATED THEN LLWS MAY END EARLIER BUT
THAT WOULD MEAN SFC WINDS WOULD INCREASE EARLIER/STRONGER THAN
EXPECTED. NEXT ISSUE IS LOW CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A SLOW
MOVING CDFNT. ENHANCED MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
BRING A MUCH DEEPER MOISTURE PROFILE TO THE REGION WHICH
TRANSLATES TO MUCH LOWER CLOUD DECKS DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...INCLUDING DOWN TO IFR LEVELS. TIMING OF
THE LOW CLOUDS IS A LITTLE TRICKY...BUT HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO
BUFKIT PROFILES FROM BOTH THE NAM AND GFS WHICH LOOKED TO HAVE THE
LOW CLOUDS IN PLACE AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. LAST MAIN ISSUE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR FROZEN PRECIPITATION FOR MAINLY KMSP-KRNH-KEAU. BEST
DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE LOOK BEST FOR SRN MN INTO WRN WI...SO THIS
SHOULD SPARE KAXN-KSTC-KRWF FROM ANY PRECIP. HOWEVER...THE
ORIENTATION OF THE INCOMING SLOW-MOVING FROM /SW TO NE/ ALONG WITH
THE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF LIQUID ACCUMULATION. GIVEN A SHALLOW ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL FREEZING LAYER BUT ONE DROPPING NO LOWER THAN -5 DEG C...A
PERIOD OF -FZDZ LOOKS INCREASINGLY LIKELY FOR AROUND DAYBREAK
MONDAY THROUGH LATE MORNING. HAVE INCLUDED A PROB30 TO ACCOUNT
THAT IT MAY START EARLIER THAN 12Z. THERE IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY
THAT THE INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS MAY NUDGE UP THE AIR TEMPERATURE
ENOUGH TO BRING SFC TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING... KEEPING PRECIP AS ALL
LIQUID AND SHRINKING THE DURATION OF -FZDZ. CERTAINLY A LOT TO
KEEP AN EYE ON AS THIS EVENT UNFOLDS.

MSP...SOME HZ ARND THE FIELD AS WARMER DEWPOINTS MOVE ACROSS
GROUNDS THAT HAD SEEN THE TEMPERATURE REMAIN BELOW 20 DEG F FOR
A FEW DAYS. THE BR/HZ WILL BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...
MAKING FOR A BREEZY AND MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. CLOUDS INCREASE TONIGHT
AHEAD OF A SLOW-MOVING CDFNT DUE TO PASS ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY.
WILL SEE CIGS FORM OVERNIGHT...LIKELY INTO THE IFR CATEGORY. THIS
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY THE POTENTIAL FOR -FZDZ MAINLY BETWEEN 12Z-18Z
BUT POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS 08Z-12Z. MODEL TIMING HIGHLIGHTS AFTER
12Z...BUT THERE ARE ALSO INDICATIONS THAT THE DURATION COULD BE
CUT SHORT DUE TO STRONGER WARM AIR ADVECTION THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST WHICH COULD CHANGE THE PRECIP TO ALL LIQUID QUICKER THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST. IN ADDITION...THE AMOUNT OF PRECIP WILL NOT BE
MUCH. ONLY AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OF LIQUID ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED. SO...ALTHOUGH THIS IS A HIGH POP/LOW QPF EVENT...THERE
MAY BE JUST ENOUGH ICE TO CAUSE PROBLEMS MONDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CIGS MON NIGHT WITH POSSIBLE -FZDZ IN THE
EVENING. VFR TUE WITH MIDLVL DECKS AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS.
WELL-ORGANIZED STORM SYSTEM EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION WED INTO
THU WITH A VARIETY OF PRECIPITATION TYPES POSSIBLE...WITH FLIGHT
CATEGORY RESTRICTIONS /MAINLY DUE TO CIGS/ DOWN TO IFR LIKELY.

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

RAH/CLF/JPC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO

542 AM CST SUN DEC 11 2011

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...

Short Range (Sunday through Tuesday)...

After today, an unsettled weather pattern will start of the work
week with rain chances increasing markedly by Tuesday.

An extensive filed of stratus and fog that stretched from the TX
Panhandle into central KS yesterday has spread into the western 1/3
of the CWA overnight. Short range models HRRR and RUC indicate the
stratus will likely linger through the morning hours across northern
and parts of west central MO before clearing from the ssw. Numerous
breaks in the low clouds over northern KS complicates the forecast.
However, the short range models suggest these holes will cloud back
up. Should this occur the northwestern counties would be the last to
clear. Have lowered high temperatures across the northwest 1/2 of
the CWA due to the lingering low clouds.

Increasing mid level warm air advection will generate the next wave
of clouds that will spread northeast across TX/OK and into the
western CWA tonight. A weak but persistent h7 shortwave with
attendant isentropic lift is expected to generate patchy very light
rain tonight across the nw 1/2 of the CWA. Since the rain will be
quite light and may not even measure can only justify 15-25% pops.

Mid/upper level winds will back to the southwest for Monday/Tuesday
with extensive warm air advection mid and high level cloudiness
affecting the region. Monday and the first part of Monday night
should be dry due to marginal isentropic lift and no discernible
waves moving through the flow. That will all change later Monday
night through Tuesday as deep isentropic lift at multiple levels and
periodic shortwaves lifting northeast through the region will likely
result in periods of showers. The model trends have been showing
increasing pops and pattern recognition supports this. Can envision
later forecasts further raising pops on Tuesday. The diurnal
temperature range on Tuesday will be limited due to the cloud cover
and expected rain, so favor lowering max temperatures a bit while
raising the overnight lows for Monday and Tuesday nights.

Medium Range (Wednesday through Saturday)...

The main feature of interest in the medium range continues to be the
well advertised upper level trough that will develop tonight over
the southwestern CONUS. As has been the case over several runs of
the ECMWF and the GFS, the GFS continues to be faster and further
south with this system. However, the model spread has come closer
together over the past couple of runs.

By Wednesday, the upper level trough will move out into the Southern
Rockies as a surface low pressure develops out across eastern
Colorado/western Kansas. This surface low will track through the
Central Plains during the day Wednesday and into the Upper Midwest
Wednesday night forcing a cold front through the forecast area. Out
ahead of the front, good WAA, frontogenetical forcing, and elevated
instability will allow for copious rain with PWATs between
1.0"-1.25" and even a few thunderstorms possible. Temperatures out
ahead of the front on Wednesday will be well above average with
highs ranging from near 50 across northwestern Missouri to around 60
across southern portions of the forecast area.

Showers may linger across eastern portions of the forecast area into
Thursday morning as the upper level trough moves through the
forecast area. Otherwise, the rest of the medium range looks dry as
a surface ridge of high pressure builds in behind the departing
system on Thursday and will remain in control over the region
through the remainder of the period. Temperatures on Thursday will
range from the upper 30s to the lower 40s across the CWA with
seasonably cool temperatures expected for Friday and Saturday with
highs ranging from the mid 30s to low 40s.

73
&&

.AVIATION...

For the 12Z TAFs, increasing low level moisture has resulted in a
shallow VLIFR cloud deck with MVFR fog which has spread across all 3
terminals. While AvnFPS climatology supports holding onto at least
IFR cigs through 18z, satellite imagery indicates an MVFR deck
quickly approaching from the southwest. These clouds should reach
the terminals by late morning and linger until a VFR deck of mid
clouds moves in for tonight.

While the forecast does not specifically mention rain in it,
increasing isentropic ascent with a weak 700mb shortwave trough may
generate very light but scattered showers or sprinkles. This
precipitation is not likely to measure nor cause a reduction in
visibility. So, will leave mention of them out for now, but
something to be aware of in future forecasts.

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

WFO EAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO

419 AM CST SUN DEC 11 2011

.DISCUSSION...

Short Range (Sunday through Tuesday)...

After today, an unsettled weather pattern will start of the work
week with rain chances increasing markedly by Tuesday.

Medium Range (Wednesday through Saturday)...

73
&&

.AVIATION...

For the 00Z tafs, the weak high pressure system has shifted east
with a return to light south southwest flow. Models suggest VFR
conditions through the period as a weak high pressure ridge aloft
builds across the Central Plains. However, there has been a LIFR
stratus deck in eastern Kansas, moving northeast. It appears that
nocturnal cooling along with advection will allow this deck to move
into the terminals aft 07Z. IFR conditions are expected with
possible ceilings as low as 300 feet between 08z to 12z. The cloud
deck is quite thin with several breaks. With increasing mixing in
the morning hours, the cloud deck should quickly erode. However,
confidence in the timing is low.

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

WFO EAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTH PLATTE NE

539 AM CST SUN DEC 11 2011

.AVIATION...

FOR THE KLBF AND KVTN TERMINALS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY.

ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM KBBW TO KONL TODAY...FOG AND STRATUS
ARE POSSIBLE WITH CIGS BLO 1000 FT AGL AND VISBYS DOWN TO 3SM. WEST OF
THIS LINE TO A LINE EXTENDING FROM KIML...TO KLBF...TO 40W OF
KONL...PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE THROUGH MID MORNING WITH VISBYS DOWN
TO 3 SM. AFTER MID MORNING...FOG SHOULD BURN OFF...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF LOCATIONS EAST OF A LINE FROM KBBW TO KONL WHERE
STRATUS MAY PERSIST TODAY INTO TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE...UNLIMITED
CEILINGS ARE FORECAST WITH SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE
AFTER 06Z MONDAY ACROSS SWRN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA. WINDS AT THE KLBF AND
KVTN TERMINALS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST TODAY AT UNDER
10 KTS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT...WITH SPEEDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR BLO 10 KTS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CST SUN DEC 11 2011/

DISCUSSION...

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

SHORT TERM/EXTENDED...JACOBS
AVIATION...CLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

554 AM CST SUN DEC 11 2011

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
315 AM CST SUN DEC 11 2011

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS CENTERED ON FREEZING DRIZZLE AND ICING
POTENTIAL FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND THE NEED FOR A
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
315 AM CST SUN DEC 11 2011

.AVIATION...TODAY AND TONIGHT
554 AM CST SUN DEC 11 2011

IFR/MVFR STRATUS WILL MOVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
TAF SITES FROM MID MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LOOK FOR
CLOUD BASES TO LOWER TO 900 FT AT KRST BY 18Z AND 1500 FT AT KLSE
BY 20Z AS THE STRATUS MOVES THROUGH. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHES FROM THE DAKOTAS/CENTRAL PLAINS. THERE COULD BE A FEW
BREAKS IN THE STRATUS DECK WITH INCREASING MIXING THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...WARMER AIR MOVING OVER THE SNOW PACK WILL HELP TO MELT
THE SNOW AND INCREASE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE. THIS MAY ACT TO
REINFORCE THE STRATUS DECK AND MAINTAIN IT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. HAVE TRENDED TAFS TOWARD THIS SOLUTION WITH LATEST FORECAST
SOUNDINGS/OBSERVATIONS SUPPORTING THIS SCENARIO. AREAS OF BR WILL
ACCOMPANY THE STRATUS WITH VISIBILITIES FALLING INTO THE 4 TO 5SM
RANGE. LOOK FOR STRATUS TO SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THIS
MORNING AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. LOOK FOR FREEZING
DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP AT KRST BY 06Z AND AT KLSE BY 08Z. CEILINGS
WILL LOWER LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO THE 500
TO 900 FT RANGE. IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY MORNING...WITH FREEZING DRIZZLE PERSISTING. WILL HAVE
TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE NEXT SET OF MODEL RUNS FOR FOG POTENTIAL AT
THE TAF SITES. VISIBILITIES COULD FALL BELOW ONE HALF MILE AT THE
TAF SITES IF IT DEVELOPS. HAVE NOT INCLUDED VISIBILITIES THIS LOW
AT THIS TIME WITH FORECAST SOUNDING SHOWING SURFACE WINDS OUT OF
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KTS...PROMOTING MIXING.

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
315 AM CST SUN DEC 11 2011

WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.

SHORT TERM...RABERDING
LONG TERM....RABERDING
AVIATION.....WETENKAMP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TOPEKA KS

328 PM CST SUN DEC 11 2011

.DISCUSSION...

LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP AT 20Z WAS SHOWING THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING
SLOWLY ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS FROM NEBRASKA INTO THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE. SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OUT AHEAD OF THE WAVE IN OKLAHOMA
TODAY AND HAVE BEEN MOVING NORTHEAST SLOWLY THROUGH THE DAY.
SOUNDING FROM 12Z AT TOP AND SGF SHOWED PLENTY OF DRY AIR OFF THE
DECK THIS MORNING. SOME DRY AIR CONTINUES TO BE ENTRAINED THIS
EVENING IN THE EASTERN CWA PER MODEL TIME SECTIONS. LATEST RUN OF
THE RUC DOES NOT BRING ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION AS FAR NORTH
INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA TONIGHT. THE UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE SLOWLY MOVE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVING
THROUGH THE EASTERN CWA BY 09Z MONDAY. 925-850 MB WINDS BECOME SOUTH
EARLY THIS EVENING THEN SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND BY MORNING WILL
FOCUS MOISTURE TO THE EAST. EXPECT CLOUDS TO REMAIN THROUGH THE
NIGHT WITH SOME PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHWEST
WHILE SPRINKLES ARE MORE LIKELY IN THE EAST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING SO NO FREEZING OR FROZEN PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED.

MONDAY SOME EARLY MORNING PATCHY DRIZZLE OR FOG IS POSSIBLE OFF THE
SNOW PACK TO THE WEST IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. BY MID MORNING A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST BUT MAKES SLOW PROGRESS
THROUGH THE DAY AND BECOMES STATIONARY FROM SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BRING
TEMPERATURES AGAIN IN THE MID AND UPPER 40S TO THE AREA.

MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN TAKING UPPER TROUGH OFF THE SOUTHERN CA COAST
MONDAY EVENING AND EJECTING IT NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY...THEN RAPIDLY INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS ARE IN LESS AGREEMENT ON
HOW FAR SOUTHEAST THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE
NORTHWEST COUNTY WARNING AREA (CWA) MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE
STALLING...WITH THE NAM/SREF THE MOST AGGRESSIVE INTO THE NORTHWEST
1/3 OF THE CWA AND THE GFS/EC NOT BRINGING IT INTO THE NORTHWEST
CORNER AT ALL. WILL COMPROMISE FOR NOW WITH SOME
FREEZING/SUBFREEZING TEMPS IN THE FAR NORTHWEST CORNER BEHIND THE
FRONT AND WARMER ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS ELSEWHERE. WITH A CHANCE FOR
DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN INCREASING LATER IN THE NIGHT AND NO NON DIURNAL
TREND EXPECTED...CANNOT RULE OUT A WINDOW FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING
PRECIP IN THE FAR NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE CWA 06-12Z
TUES...OTHERWISE EXPECT THE PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM TO BE A RAIN
EVENT TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE ENDING WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND FORCING LOOK SUFFICIENT FOR SOME THUNDER
POTENTIAL AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA WHERE THE WARMER MORNING LOWS WEDNESDAY
WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. AFTER HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S ON
TUESDAY...SHOULD SEE HIGHS RISE INTO THE LOW TO MIDDLE 50S FOR
WEDNESDAY.

AFTER THIS SYSTEM EXITS...MODELS DIVERGE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND ON HOW QUICKLY THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TO DIG INTO
THE SOUTHWEST CONUS WILL EJECT OUT INTO THE PLAINS. THE ECMWF MODEL
IS ABOUT 2 DAYS SLOWER WITH ITS ARRIVAL AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP THAN
THE GFS. WITH SUCH LOW CONFIDENCE ON ITS ARRIVAL TIME AND CURRENT
DRY FCST THROUGH SATURDAY...OPTED TO KEEP FCST DRY UNTIL SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY WITH LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN/FREEZING RAIN OR A SNOW
POTENTIAL. AFTER LOWS IN THE 20S AND HIGHS IN THE 30S BOTH FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY...HIGHS TEMPS SHOULD SLOWLY MODERATE AHEAD OF THE NEXT
UPPER TROUGH INTO THE 40S FOR HIGHS ON SUNDAY. 63

.AVIATION...

THE VFR STRATUS DECK WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
TAF FORECAST PERIOD. THE WINDS MAY TRY TO DISSIPATE THE CLOUD
DECK TEMPORARILY HOWEVER ENOUGH MOISTURE IS IN PLACE TO MAINTAIN
BKN TO OVC CIGS. TIGHT SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER 20 KTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...SUBSIDING
TO AROUND 10 KTS SUSTAINED OVERNIGHT. SHORT TERM MODEL ANALYSIS
SHOW THE STRATUS CIGS RETURNING TO MVFR OVER KMHK SUNDAY EVENING.
CONFIDENCE IS DECENT OVER KMHK WHERE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION OF LOW
LVL MOISTURE IS IN PLACE...HOWEVER IF TRENDS CHANGE KTOP AND KFOE
CIGS MAY BE LOWERED TO MVFR AS WELL DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

BOWEN

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

1139 AM MST SUN DEC 11 2011

.UPDATE...
1059 AM MST SUN DEC 11 2011

18Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING LARGE POCKET OF DRY AIR IN
PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH RUC H5 /PV ANALYSIS SUGGESTING WEAK
SHORT WAVE TROUGH DRIFTING OVER THE AREA...BUT HAVING VERY LITTLE
IMPACT ON SENSIBLE WX. AT THE SURFACE...TROUGH AXIS WAS DEVELOPING
ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO...WITH AREA OF STRATUS MOVING INTO THE CWA
IN AREA OF MOISTURE ADVECTION.

FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...THINK BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTH INTO EASTERN CWA AS MODELS APPEAR TO BE
OVERESTIMATING SNOW COVERS IMPACT ON MIXING. WHILE STRATUS SHOULD
LIMIT HIGHS SOME WHAT...TEMPS HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE UPPER 30S AS
CLOUDS ARRIVE SO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW SPOTS TOP OUT
IN THE 40S ACROSS EASTERN CWA. SHOULD SEE A VERY WIDE RANGE IN
TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WITH AROUND 50 IN THE WEST...NEAR 40 IN THE
EAST...AND TEMPS STAYING IN THE 30S IN THE MCK AREA.

TONIGHT...MAIN CONCERNS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE FOG FORMATION AND
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES. MAIN ISSUE WITH RESPECT FOG FORMATION WILL
BE WHETHER OR NOT STRATUS CLEARS OUT...AS MOISTURE PROFILE EXPECTED
TO DEEPEN THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING...PROVIDING A FAVORABLE SET UP
FOR FOG SHOULD STATUS BREAK UP. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT
STRATUS DECK MAY SHIFT TO THE EAST PRIOR TO WEAK FRONTAL ZONE
MOVING ACROSS AREA...WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR FOG
TO DEVELOP. GIVEN THE MOISTURE PROFILE AND INCREASING WAA AROUND
09Z...COULD BRIEFLY SEE A PERIOD OF -FZDZ OVERNIGHT BUT THIS IS
EXPECTED TO BE VERY ISOLATED AT THE MOMENT. OTHERWISE...WILL
LIKELY SEE A SHARP GRADIENT IN TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT...WITH
CLOUDS HOLDING TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 20S IN THE EXTREME EAST AND
TEMPS FALLING INTO THE TEENS ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA.

JRM
&&

.DISCUSSION...
200 AM MST SUN DEC 11 2011

TODAY-MONDAY NIGHT...FORECAST ISSUES TODAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE
EXPECTED STRATUS DECK AHEAD OF A SFC TROUGH TODAY AND COLD FRONT
TONIGHT-MONDAY. THIS STRATUS DECK WILL BE GENERALLY EAST OF A LINE
FROM MCCOOK TO COLBY TO LEOTI AND WILL PROVIDE SOME FREEZING FOG
DURING THE NIGHT AND SOME CLOUDS DURING THE DAY WHICH MAY IMPACT
TEMPERATURE FORECAST. FOR TODAY TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE VERY CLOSE
TO SATURDAYS WITH 30S IN THE REMAINING DEEPER SNOW COVER WITH 40S
AND A FEW 50S ELSEWHERE...WARMEST ACROSS FAR EASTERN COLORADO. FOR
MONDAY SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS IN THE 30S WITH LOW 40S IN FAR
EASTERN COLORADO.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT FOCUS IS ON INCREASING
MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LOW
AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH WHICH BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE
REACHING COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO. MODELS REMAIN IN DISAGREEMENT
WITH THE HANDLING OF THIS SYSTEM WITH REGARDS TO HOW MUCH COLD AIR
LINGERS OVER THE AREA...MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AND TIMING JUST TO
NAME A FEW. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE WE MAY SEE SOME LIGHT FREEZING
DRIZZLE AND/OR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME OF THIS CHANGING TO LIGHT RAIN FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. FOR NOW WILL MAKE VERY FEW CHANGES GIVEN
THE DISAGREEMENTS MENTIONED ABOVE.

007

WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY...UPPER LOW SWINGS ACROSS CWA WEDNESDAY WITH
MODELS DIFFERING QUITE A BIT ON STRENGTH RESULTING IN DIFFERENCES ON
HANDLING OF AMOUNTS AND WHERE PRECIP AXIS SETS UP AS IT SHIFTS EAST.
FOR NOW HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS EAST DURING DAY WED AND LINGERED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WED NIGHT. BASED ON LATEST 00Z GUIDANCE SPEEDING
UP THIS FEATURE...NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE THERE WILL BE MUCH
LINGERING AFTER 00Z. TEMPERATURE PROFILES SHOULD SUPPORT ALL SNOW
WED MORNING TRANSITIONING TO SOME TYPE OF MIX OR ALL TO RAIN WED
AFTERNOON. POINT SOUNDINGS REFLECT MODEL DIFFERENCES IN TREATMENT OF
MID LEVEL MOISTURE...SO NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE DURING THE AFTERNOON
PERIOD ON TYPE.

SPLIT FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPS OVER CWA...WITH VERY LITTLE CONFIDENCE
THROUGH REMAINING EXTENDED PERIODS DUE TO LARGE SPREAD RUN TO RUN ON
HANDLING OF SMALLER SCALE FEATURES. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. QUITE A BIT A SPREAD ON HANDLING
OF THIS FEATURE...SO NOT PARTICULARLY CONFIDENT.
&&

.AVIATION...
1139 AM MST SUN DEC 11 2011

THE STRATUS LAYER HAS NOT RISEN MUCH THIS MORNING...AND IT
CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD. GIVEN ITS MOVEMENT...IT SHOULD STAY
EAST OF KGLD...MUCH IS EXPECTED TO BRING MVFR CEILINGS TO KMCK BY
20Z. FOG IS AGAIN EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AT KMCK...AND THE LOW LEVEL
MIXING AT KGLD SHOULD KEEP KGLD VFR. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY THIS
AFTERNOON...CHANGING TO WESTERLY TONIGHT AND NORTHERLY BY TOMORROW
MORNING. THE TRANSITION TO FOG AT KMCK SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO LAST
NIGHT...WITH NEARLY CALM WINDS INHIBITING MIXING OF AIR NEAR THE
SURFACE...THOUGH THE RATE AT WHICH THE STRATUS DECK MOVES EASTWARD
COULD IMPACT THE FOG FORMATION. VISIBILITIES WILL BEGIN TO
DECREASE IN THE EVENING AT KMCK...AND THE LOWEST VISIBILITIES WILL
BE IN THE EARLY MORNING. HAVE KEPT THE PREVAILING CONDITIONS IN
THE EARLY MORNING LIFR...BUT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF
VLIFR CONDITIONS. VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE IN THE LATE MORNING AS
DAYTIME MIXING INCREASES.

CJS
&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

1115 AM MST SUN DEC 11 2011

.UPDATE...
1059 AM MST SUN DEC 11 2011

JRM
&&

.DISCUSSION...
200 AM MST SUN DEC 11 2011

007

.AVIATION...
1022 AM MST SUN DEC 11 2011

FOR THE 18Z TAFS...AS MIXING CONTINUES TO INCREASE VISIBILITIES
AND CEILINGS ACROSS THE REGION...AFTERNOON CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR
AT THE TERMINALS. FOG IS AGAIN EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AT KMCK...AND
THE LOW LEVEL MIXING AT KGLD SHOULD KEEP KGLD VFR. WINDS WILL BE
SOUTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON...CHANGING TO WESTERLY TONIGHT AND
NORTHERLY BY TOMORROW MORNING. THE TRANSITION TO FOG AT KMCK
SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...WITH NEARLY CALM WINDS
INHIBITING MIXING OF AIR NEAR THE SURFACE. VISIBILITIES WILL BEGIN
TO DECREASE IN THE EVENING AT KMCK...AND THE LOWEST VISIBILITIES
WILL BE IN THE EARLY MORNING. HAVE KEPT THE PREVAILING CONDITIONS
IN THE EARLY MORNING LIFR...BUT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
PERIODS OF VLIFR CONDITIONS. VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE IN THE LATE
MORNING AS DAYTIME MIXING INCREASES.

CJS
&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WICHITA KS

1203 PM CST SUN DEC 11 2011

.UPDATE...

LOW LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION HAS RESULTED IN RISING TEMPERATURES
EVEN WITH LIMITED INSOLATION AND THE FORECAST WAS ADJUSTED TO BUMP
HIGH TEMPERATURES UP SLIGHTLY. IN ADDITION...A FEW LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
WITHIN A SHALLOW ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE REGIME AND WILL INCLUDE A
MENTION IN THE FORECAST UPDATE.

MCGUIRE

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU

PATCHY MVFR CIGS REMAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS BUT VFR
IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA BY MID AFTERNOON WITH
CEILINGS AROUND 5000 FEET ANTICIPATED. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 20
TO 30 KNOTS WILL ALSO DEVELOP AS LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE CONTINUES
TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS HELPING TO TIGHTEN THE
GRADIENT ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES MAY
IMPACT KICT-KHUT AND KSLN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS GRADUALLY
SHIFTING EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING. SOME CONCERN THAT
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES WILL FALL TO MVFR/IFR ONCE AGAIN THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT AND HINTED AT THIS IN THE LATEST TAFS.

MCGUIRE

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 729 AM CST SUN DEC 11 2011/

UPDATE...
VISIBILITIES HAVE GREATLY IMPROVED IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS...THUS HAVE
CANCELLED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY. EXPECT VISIBILITIES TO
IMPROVE...BUT A DECK OF STRATUS SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE AREA FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 607 AM CST SUN DEC 11 2011/

AVIATION...12Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 AM CST SUN DEC 11 2011/

DISCUSSION...

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE TUE-WED TIME
FRAME.

LAWSON

AVIATION...06Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 46 35 48 36 / 10 10 10 20
HUTCHINSON 46 35 47 35 / 10 10 10 20
NEWTON 46 34 48 36 / 10 10 10 20
ELDORADO 46 35 48 36 / 10 10 10 20
WINFIELD-KWLD 48 36 49 37 / 10 10 10 30
RUSSELL 46 33 44 33 / 10 10 10 20
GREAT BEND 45 34 45 34 / 10 10 10 20
SALINA 46 35 46 34 / 10 10 10 20
MCPHERSON 46 35 47 35 / 10 10 10 20
COFFEYVILLE 51 35 48 37 / 10 10 10 30
CHANUTE 50 34 48 36 / 10 10 10 30
IOLA 49 34 48 36 / 10 10 10 30
PARSONS-KPPF 50 34 48 37 / 10 10 10 30

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

340 PM EST SUN DEC 11 2011

.SYNOPSIS...

12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A SPLIT FLOW ACRS
NAMERICA WITH NRN BRANCH RDGING BLDG INTO THE UPR GRT LKS. THESE
RISING HGTS...WITH 00Z-12Z H3 RISES UP TO 150M AT APX...ARE BEING
FORCED BY VIGOROUS WAD IN THE STRONG WSW FLOW /12Z H85 WIND SPEED AT
INL WAS 50KT/ BTWN SFC-H85 HI PRES IN THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND LO
PRES JUST N OF THE BORDER MOVING E INTO NW ONTARIO THAT IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A SHRTWV NEAR LK WINNIPEG. THIS STRONG WAD HAS
PUSHED H85 TEMPS IN THE UPR MS VALLEY/GREAT LKS TO UNSEASONABLY HI
LVLS...WITH 12Z H85 TEMPS AT INL/MPX UP TO 7C VS 0C AT APX AND 3C AT
GRB TOWARD THE RETREATING COLD AIR. LO CLDS OVER THE E HALF OF THE
CWA THAT FORMED AS THIS WARMER AIR PUSHED OVER MORE RESILIENT NEAR
SFC COLD AIR IN THE PRESENCE OF RADIATIONAL COOLING LAST NGT ARE
ONLY GRDLY DISSIPATING EARLY THIS AFTN. OTRW...THE OVERALL DRYNESS
OF THE LOCAL 12Z RAOBS IS ALLOWING A MOSUNNY DAY. BUT MORE LO CLDS
ARE PUSHING NEWD THRU IOWA TOWARD THE UPR MIDWEST IN THE SW LLVL
FLOW ARND THE HI IN THE MID ATLANTIC. A DISTURBANCE IN THE SRN
BRANCH FLOW IS NOW IN KANSAS AND MOVING NEWD AS WELL.
&&

.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION /TNGT AND MON/...

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PACKAGE ARE LO CLD TRENDS AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR MIXED PCPN ON MON AS DISTURANCE NOW IN KANSAS RIDES TO THE NE.

TNGT...EXPECT THE LINGERING LO CLDS OVER THE E TO BE GONE BY FCST
ISSUANCE...WITH MOCLR SKIES/WELL ABV NORMAL TEMPS DOMINATING.
ALTHOUGH THE LO CLDS HEADING NE FM IOWA ARE LIKELY TO MIX OUT WITH
DAYTIME TEMPS RISING INTO THE 30S/40S THIS AFTN...EXPECT THE ST/SC
TO REDVLP WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AFT SUNSET. 12Z MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE HIER LLVL RH ARRIVING NEAR THE WI BORDER W OF IMT
THIS EVNG...SO EXPECT EXPANDING LO CLDS SW-NE. THE COMBINATION OF
THE LO CLDS/STEADY SW FLOW OF MILD AIR WL GREATLY REDUCE DIURNAL
FALL OF TEMPS...BUT MIN TEMPS WL STILL FALL BLO 32 EVERYWHERE.
LOCATIONS NEAR LK SUP WHERE THE SW FLOW DOWNSLOPES WL BE WARMEST.
OPTED TO RETAIN MENTION OF SOME -FZDZ OVER THE INTERIOR W LATE AWAY
FM THE DOWNSLOPING NEAR LK SUP AS SHALLOW MSTR INFLUX GROWS A BIT
DEEPER WITH SOME DPVA/OMEGA/DEEPER MSTR ADVCTN AHEAD OF APRCHG
KANSAS SHRTWV. BUT SINCE THE HIER RH WL REMAIN WELL BLO THE DGZ AND
STILL BE RELATIVELY SHALLOW /BLO ABOUT H85/...ANY PCPN SHOULD REMAIN
IN THE FORM OF SMALL WATER DROPLETS.

MON...COMBINATION OF ARRIVAL OF LO PRES TROF ATTENDANT TO SHRTWV/SFC
LO NOW IN NW ONTARIO...DEEPER MSTR FM THE SW...AND SHRTWV NOW IN
KANSAS/ACCOMPANYING DYNAMICS WL RESULT IN EXPANDING PCPN CHCS. THE
12Z NAM/GFS/LOCAL WRF-ARW RUNS ALL EXHIBIT THE HIEST QPF UP TO ARND
0.20 INCH OVER THE SE CWA...WHERE GFS SHOWS AN AXIS OF SHARPER H85-7
FGEN AND THE ALL MODELS INDICATE DEEPER MSTR/OMEGA EXTENDING THRU
THE DGZ. SO OPTED TO RETAIN GOING LIKELY POPS IN THIS AREA. PTYPE WL
BE A SGNFT CONCERN. SUSPECT ONLY -FZDZ/FLURRIES WL BE ARND EARLY
WITH RELATIVELY SHALLOW MSTR YET...BUT EITHER RA...SN...OR A MIX IS
MORE LIKELY BY THE AFTN AT LEAST OVER OVER THE SE HALF WITH DEEPER
MSTR/LARGER PCPN PARTICLES. FOR THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS...THE NAM HAS
BEEN WARMEST WITH LLVL TEMPS AND THUS INDICATES RA WL BE THE
PRECOMINANT PTYPE AT LEAST OVER THE SE. THE 12Z CNDN MODEL SUPPORTS
THIS WARMER RUN AS WELL. ATHOUGH THE UNSEASONABLE WARMTH TDAY WOULD
SUG THESE MODELS ARE ON THE RIGHT TRACK...RELATIVELY DRY NATURE OF
THE AIRMASS/POTENTIAL FOR EVAP COOLING HINTS THE COOLER GFS/WRF-ARW/
09Z SREF ARE ON THE RIGHT TRACK. BLENDED IN THAT DIRECTION FOR LLVL
TEMPS FIELDS FOR NOW TO DETERMINE PTYES.

.LONG TERM /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY/...

MAIN FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED IS WITH PTYPES AND CHANCES FOR FREEZING
PRECIP FROM MON NIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING...THEN WITH A SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH WED NIGHT/THU.

A SFC TROUGH/FRONT WILL BE STALLED OVER UPPER MI FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS FROM THE START OF THE PERIOD MON NIGHT...THROUGH TUE. A WEAK
UPPER WAVE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE ERN CWA PRIOR TO 06Z
TUE...PRODUCING SOME RAIN EAST. THE HARDEST PART OF THIS FORECAST
PERIOD IS THAT SHALLOW MOISTURE WILL EXIST ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
FRONT...WITH DRY MID LEVELS KEEPING ICE CRYSTALS FROM FORMING. THE
TEMP PROFILE WILL BE SUB-FREEZING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING /EXCEPT
NEAR SFC TEMPS DURING THE DAY TUE/...WHICH WILL KEEP PRECIP WITH THE
DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT OVER THE EAST MON NIGHT AS SNOW...AND
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE DIFFERENTIATION ELSEWHERE WILL BE DEPENDENT
ON SFC TEMPS. AT THIS POINT...IT LOOKS LIKE THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATION FROM 00Z TUE INTO TUE
MORNING...MAINLY OVER THE WEST HALF OF UPPER MI. SOME UNCERTAINTY
STILL EXISTS WITH HOW MUCH FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL FALL...AND WHERE
THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS WILL BE.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING IN AS AN UPPER TROUGH
FROM CENTRAL CANADA EXTENDS OVER THE PLAINS AT 00Z THU...MOVES
ACROSS UPPER MI THU...THEN INTO QUEBEC FRI NIGHT. MODELS SEEM TO BE
COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT THERE ARE STILL
SOME BIG DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THEM...AND THOSE DIFFERENCES PLAY A
HUGE ROLE IN THE FORECAST. THE GEM AND NAM LOOK ANOMALOUS WITH THE
SYSTEM...SO THEY WERE NOT USED. THE 11/00Z ECMWF...WHICH HAS SHOWN
BETTER RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY THAN THE GFS...HAS A DEEPER UPPER WAVE
CO-LOCATED WITH THE CLOSED SFC LOW THAN THE GFS. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN THE MODEL STEMS FROM THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING
IN...WHICH LEADS TO /AMONG OTHER THINGS/ TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE
LOW LEVELS. THE 11/12Z GFS BRINGS THE SFC LOW INTO THE CWA AROUND
06Z THU...WHILE THE 11/00Z ECMWF LAGS UNTIL AROUND 15Z THU. BOTH
MODELS BRING IN MID LEVEL TEMPS THAT WOULD LEAD TO LIQUID PRECIP
UNTIL THE LOW PASSES AND COLDER AIR COMES IN. SFC TEMPS WED NIGHT
WILL FALL TO AROUND 30F OVER THE WEST HALF OF UPPER MI...BUT SHOULD
STAY NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING OVER THE EAST HALF. TEMPS OVER THE W
LOOK TO STAY NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH AROUND 03Z THU...AND
STAY THERE UNTIL MID TO LATE MORNING THU. THE GFS BRING THE BULK OF
THE SYNOPTIC QPF /EASILY GREATER THAN 0.25 INCHES IN SOME SPOTS FROM
BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS/ BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z THU...WHILE THE ECMWF IS
BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z THU...SO REGARDLESS OF MODEL THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR SIGNIFICANT FREEZING RAIN IF ALL THE INGREDIENTS COME TOGETHER.
IT NEEDS TO BE STRESSED AGAIN THAT THERE IS STILL A CONSIDERABLE
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY WITH THE SMALL
SCALE DETAILS NEEDED FOR FREEZING RAIN. DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT FREEZING RAIN ACCUMULATIONS...PAY EXTRA ATTENTION AND
KEEP UP TO DATE WITH LATER FORECASTS ON THIS SYSTEM.

MODELS ARE IN DECENT GENERAL AGREEMENT FROM FRI THROUGH SUN. NW
WINDS AND 850MB TEMPS FALLING TO AOB -12C BY AT LEAST 12Z FRI WILL
MAKE FOR POTENTIAL FOR LES...BUT DRY AIR IS ALSO MOVING IN. A SFC
RIDGE WILL MOVE THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON AND EAST BY LATE
SAT...BRINGING SWLY WINDS. SW FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING HIGH E AND
LOW PRESSURE W...ALONG WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE
W...WILL LEAD TO 850MB TEMPS INCREASING TO AOA 0C BY LATE SUNDAY.
&&

.AVIATION /FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

EXPECT LLWS TO IMPACT ALL 3 SITES FOR AT LEAST A TIME INTO TONIGHT
WITH STRONG WSW WINDS OVER DECOUPLED PUDDLES OF LINGERING NEAR SFC
COLD AIR. THE LLWS WILL PERSIST LONGEST AT SAW BECAUSE THE WEAKENING
PRES GRADIENT IN ADVANCE OF AN APRCHG LO PRES TROF WILL ARRIVE FM
THE NW AND REACH THAT LOCATION LAST. OTRW...PLAN ON VFR CONDITIONS
THRU THIS EVNG TO GIVE WAY TO IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS LATER TNGT AS AREA
OF GREATER MSTR MOVES IN FM THE SW. SOME -FZDZ WL BE POSSIBLE AT ALL
3 TAF SITES ON MON MRNG WITH SLOWLY DEEPENING MOIST LYR.
&&

.MARINE /FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE/...

EXPECT SW WINDS UP TO 30 KTS LATE THIS AFTN TO DIMINISH TONIGHT WITH
THE APPROACH OF A LO PRES TROF AND WEAKER PRES GRADIENT. ALTHOUGH
THERE WILL BE A WSHFT TO THE N FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THIS TROF ON
MON...RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS UNDER 20 KTS WILL PERSIST INTO WED BUT
SLOWLY VEER TO THE S AS A LO PRES SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE PLAINS
BEGINS TO MOVE NE TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LKS. SE WINDS AHEAD OF THIS
LO MAY INCREASE TO 25 KTS ESPECIALLY OVER THE E HALF. THE MAIN
HAZARD WILL BE AFTER THE LO MOVES TO THE NE ON THU...WHEN NW GALES
IN ITS WAKE ENHANCED BY THE ARRIVAL OF VERY COLD AIR/MIXING WILL
PREVAIL. EXPECT THESE STRONG WINDS TO DIMINISH ON FRI WITH THE SLOW
APPROACH OF HI PRES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...KC
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO

1134 AM CST Sun Dec 11 2011

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...

Short Range (Sunday through Tuesday)...

After today, an unsettled weather pattern will start of the work
week with rain chances increasing markedly by Tuesday.

Medium Range (Wednesday through Saturday)...

.AVIATION...

Temporary break in the cloud cover currently being experienced across
the terminals late this morning. Secondary, mainly VFR cloud deck,
will overspread the terminals within the next couple of hours.
Otherwise, seeing winds becoming gusty across portions of Kansas and
have added mention of gusts within the cloud break period. Attention
then turns to late tonight and into early tomorrow morning as
uncertainty again exists with respect to low clouds and fog
potential. Will hold off on any mention at the current time as deeper
mixing may help offset extent of nocturnal cooling and low cloud
development. However as seen yesterday, later shifts may have to add
mention should signals appear stronger.

DEROCHE

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

WFO EAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTH PLATTE NE

1245 PM CST SUN DEC 11 2011

.UPDATE...

UPDATED THE FORECAST FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY AS HIGHS WERE
APPROACHING OR HAD SURPASSED FORECAST HIGHS OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND
PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST NEBRASKA. WESTERLY DOWN SLOPE WINDS IN THESE
AREAS AND FULL SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE
UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 IN SOME LOCATIONS BY MID AFTERNOON. ALSO...IN
THE FAR SOUTHEAST AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA THERE
IS A PERSISTENT STRATUS DECK WHICH HAS SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWED THE
TEMPERATURE RISE SO FAR TODAY. SOME OF THESE PLACES MAY NOT GET
OVER THE FREEZING POINT AND HAVE ADJUSTED HIGHS ACCORDINGLY.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1154 AM CST SUN DEC 11 2011/

AVIATION... /FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE/

AT MID-DAY IFR CONDITIONS MAINLY STAYING ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NEBRASKA /JUST EDGING INTO THE FORECAST AREA WHERE
SNOW PACK REMAINS/. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EAST OF KLBF AND KVTN SO
VFR FORECAST WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT FOR THESE LOCATIONS.

A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY EAST ACROSS NEBRASKA TONIGHT
AND MONDAY. WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT WILL BE LIGHT WITH
A SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT. BELIEVE THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO CAUSE SOME STRATUS AND FOG TO
DEVELOP IN THE MORNING...ESPECIALLY WHERE THERE IS SNOW PACK AS
THESE AREAS WILL SEE SOME MELTING DURING THE DAY TODAY. THIS AREA
IS MAINLY EAST OF THE TAF SITES...BUT THINK THERE WILL BE SOME
MVFR VISIBILITIES AT KLBF OVERNIGHT. THESE SHOULD QUICKLY IMPROVE
IN THE MORNING AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...PUSHING THE MOISTURE
OUT AS THE WESTERLY WINDS INCREASE. LOOKING NORTHWARD...A SURFACE
LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE SD/NE/IA JUNCTURE. THERE IS A
PRETTY CONSISTENT SIGNAL THAT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE PULLED
SOUTH INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA BEHIND THE LOW. EXPECTING TO SEE
LOWERED CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN THE VICINITY OF 12Z AT KVTN
WITH IFR/MVFR CEILINGS CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CST SUN DEC 11 2011/

DISCUSSION...

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM/EXTENDED...JACOBS
AVIATION...BROOKS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTH PLATTE NE

1154 AM CST SUN DEC 11 2011

.AVIATION... /FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE/

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CST SUN DEC 11 2011/

DISCUSSION...

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM/EXTENDED...JACOBS
AVIATION...BROOKS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PENDLETON OR

955 AM PST SUN DEC 11 2011

.UPDATE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK AND DISORGANIZED FRONT
CROSSING THE COLUMBIA BASIN AT THIS TIME WHILE A TROUGH FOLLOWS
BEHIND IT AT THE COAST LINE. THUS FAR THE FRONT IS NOT DOING MUCH TO
BREAK UP THE INVERSION AND CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA. IT COULD STILL
HAPPEN AND THUS HAVE NOT MADE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. MAIN
CONCERN IS THE EXTENT OF FREEZING FOG. CURRENTLY HAVE A FREEZING FOG
ADVISORY OUT FOR MOST OF THE COLUMBIA BASIN AND BLUE MOUNTAIN
FOOTHILLS AS WELL AS NORTH CENTRAL OREGON. HAVE TRIMMED BACK
FREEZING FOG IN NORTH CENTRAL OREGON TO NORTH OF THE JEFFERSON
COUNTY LINE AS MADRAS IS SHOWING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WHILE WASCO
OBSERVATIONS STILL LOOK SATURATED. THE OREGON COLUMBIA BASIN IS
CURRENTLY NOT UNDER A FREEZING FOG ADVISORY. HERMISTON OBSERVATIONS
HAVE NOT DROPPED BELOW 1/2 MILE AND WEBCAMS IN THE ZONE DO NOT LOOK
AS LOW AS 1/4 MILE SO WILL NOT ISSUE A FREEZING FOG ADVISORY THERE
UNLESS CONDITIONS DETERIORATE FURTHER. HAVE NO DOUBT THAT THERE ARE
SOME LOCATIONS IN THAT ZONE AT 1/4 MILE OR LESS BUT COVERAGE DOES
NOT LOOK WIDESPREAD ENOUGH. HOWEVER, THE KITTITAS VALLEY DOES LOOK
LIKE IT HAS WIDESPREAD FREEZING FOG SO WILL ISSUE A FREEZING FOG
ADVISORY THERE SHORTLY. OTHERWISE, FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND
WILL MONITOR FOR AN UPDATE IF CLOUD COVER SHOWS SIGNS OF BREAKING
UP. IT HAS ALSO STARTED TO SNOW HERE IN PENDLETON SO WILL BE ADDING
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS TO THE BLUE MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS ZONES
FOR TODAY.

LOOKING AHEAD TO TONIGHT, GFS AND NAM BOTH SHOW DEEP MOISTURE AND
ENOUGH SATURATION TO 8000-10000 FEET FOR LIGHT SNOW, PERHAPS UP TO
AN INCH, IN THE EASTERN COLUMBIA BASIN AND BLUE MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS
TONIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF, SREF AND RUC SHOW LESS MOISTURE AND LITTLE
OR NO SNOW. HAVE TROUBLE BELIEVING THE DEGREE OF MOISTURE BUILD UP
IN THE GFS AND NAM, BUT AS IT HAS STARTED TO SNOW ALREADY AT
PENDLETON, AM TENDING TO TAKE IT MORE SERIOUSLY. WILL BE LOOKING AT
THIS IN MORE DETAIL FOR THE AFTERNOON FORECAST. PERRY

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS. FOG AND STRATUS REMAIN IN THE COLUMBIA BASIN
AND ADJACENT VALLEYS...IMPACTING TAF SITES YKM PSC ALW PDT DLS.
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH THE REGION TODAY INTO EARLY TONIGHT. LIFT FROM THE FRONT
WILL LIKELY RAISE THE CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY TODAY AND MAY ALSO
RESULT IN SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES. CONDITIONS COULD IMPROVE INTO
THE MVFR RANGE. SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. 94

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 AM PST SUN DEC 11 2011/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...A WEAK WAVE IS CENTERED
OVER EASTERN OREGON AT THE MOMENT. THIS WAVE WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA
BY MID MORNING. THIS WAVE IS CREATING JUST ENOUGH LIFT TO IMPROVE
VISIBILITIES SLIGHTLY WITHIN THE FOGGY AREAS UNDER THE COLUMBIA
BASIN INVERSION. IT COULD ALSO CAUSE A FEW SNOW FLURRIES HERE AND
THERE EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE SAME AREAS THAT HAVE LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG IN THE BASIN.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA AND
THE EASTERN PACIFIC CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AND SHEAR AS
THE BULK OF IT`S ENERGY WILL DIVE TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS TROUGH WILL PUSH COOLER AIR ALOFT INTO THE
REGION ALLOWING FOR THE INVERSIONS OVER THE COLUMBIA BASIN TO WEAKEN
TODAY. AT THE SAME TIME, THOUGH, WINDS MAY BE TOO LIGHT TO MIX OUT
THE STAGNANT AIR MASS IN THE COLUMBIA BASIN. AS SUCH DO EXPECT THE
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE, THOUGH CLOUD BASES MAY RISE AND
VISIBILITIES MAY IMPROVE WHERE THEY REMAIN LOW EARLY THIS MORNING.
THERE COULD EVEN BE A FEW BREAKS IN THE LOWER CLOUD COVER OVER THE
BASIN. PRECIP FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL LIMITED TO A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
OVER SOME OF THE MOUNTAINS AT TIMES TODAY AND TONIGHT. ALSO MAY SEE
A FEW SNOW FLURRIES WITHIN THE AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TODAY.
NORTH FLOW TONIGHT SHOULD PUSH SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG INTO PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL OREGON NEAR THE CASCADES. ALSO COULD SEE A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS OR FLURRIES IN THIS SAME AREA. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL COOL
AT LOCATIONS ABOVE 3000 FEET VERSUS SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES BELOW
3000 FEET WILL BE SIMILAR OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY, THOUGH
HOW THEY END UP WILL BE DETERMINED BY HOW MUCH INVERSION BREAK UP
OCCURS. 90

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...RIDGE AXIS MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA TUESDAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH BRITISH
COLUMBIA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH NORTHERLY FLOW WEDNESDAY. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NEAR THE OREGON COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. SOME
SNOW COULD LINGER OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH NORTHERLY FLOW THURSDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM
TO MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY. 93

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 27 21 32 20 / 10 20 0 0
ALW 29 24 33 23 / 10 20 0 0
PSC 30 20 34 17 / 10 20 0 0
YKM 29 16 32 15 / 10 10 0 0
HRI 30 20 34 16 / 10 20 0 0
ELN 31 18 32 16 / 10 10 0 0
RDM 42 13 39 9 / 10 10 0 0
LGD 37 20 33 16 / 10 20 0 0
GCD 39 20 37 17 / 10 10 0 0
DLS 38 26 39 22 / 10 10 0 0

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST MONDAY
ORZ041-042-044-050-505-507-508.

FREEZING FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON ORZ507-508.

FREEZING FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON BELOW 2500
FEET FOR THE ORZ042.

WA...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST MONDAY WAZ024-026>029-521.

FREEZING FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON WAZ028-029.

FREEZING FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON BELOW 2500
FEET FOR THE WAZ521.

THREAT INDEX
TODAY : GREEN
MONDAY : GREEN
TUESDAY : GREEN

GREEN: NONE OR LIMITED NEED FOR WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES.
YELLOW: A FEW WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.
RED: NUMEROUS WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

83/93/94

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS BROWNSVILLE TX

1158 AM CST SUN DEC 11 2011

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION FOR 18Z TAF ANALYSIS.

.AVIATION...AND DOWN WE GO. ABOUT THE ONLY QUESTION FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS IS HOW FAR INTO THE IFR CEILING CATEGORY WE DIP. GUT
FEELING SAYS WE`LL BE FLIRTING WITH THE IFR/LIFR RIGHT THROUGH THE
PERIOD. MAIN REASON IS THE SLOW EROSION OF THE COLDEST AIR...WHICH
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS TO REMAIN STEADY OR EVEN
RISE VERY SLOWLY OVERNIGHT...ASSUMING THE LAND DRAINAGE FLOW
CONTINUES TO KEEP TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 50S AT KHRL/KMFE AND
AROUND 60 AT KBRO. WITH HUMIDITY NEAR 100 PERCENT IT IS REALISTIC
TO SEE CURRENT 500-600 FOOT CEILINGS LOCK IN AND EVEN DROP A
SHADE. WITH THE LOW CEILINGS SHOULD COME SOME FUZZY FOG AND MORE
DRIZZLE...BUT DON`T SEE VISIBILITY REACTING TOO STRONGLY WITH NEAR
STEADY (VERSUS RISING) TEMPERATURES. FOR NOW HAVE HELD AT MVFR LEVELS.

AS FOR MONDAY...WILL BE A SLOW GO TO BREAK OUT WITH INLAND COLD
AIR HANGING ON AND FLOWING TOWARD THE COAST. UNSURE WHEN EASTERLY
WIND WILL RETURN TO KBRO SO WENT VARIABLE TO THE END OF THE
PERIOD. WINDS SHOULD STAY FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST TO VARIABLE AT
KHRL/KMFE.

AS FOR WIND SHEAR...EXPECT MODERATE LEVELS TO SET UP GIVEN THE
LIGHT SURFACE BREEZE FROM 290-330 WITH A QUICK TURN TO 090 AT NEAR
20 TO 25 KNOTS AT 1000 TO 2000 FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD. WEAKENING
LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS SHOULD KEEP THESE SPEEDS...OR PERHAPS
LOWER...PRECLUDING NEED TO MENTION IN THIS SET OF TAFS.
STILL...DIRECTIONAL CHANGE WORTH A MENTION./52-BSG/

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1102 AM CST SUN DEC 11 2011/

DISCUSSION...SEE BELOW FOR SHORT TERM AND MARINE ADJUSTMENTS THIS MORNING.

SHORT TERM /THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY/...WITH THE WEAKENING
COASTAL TROUGH HAS COME A CONTINUED BACKING OF THE SURFACE WIND TO
THE NORTHWEST WHICH IS EDGING TOWARD THE LAGUNA SHORELINE. THIS IS
NOT TOO SURPRISING GIVEN IMBALANCE OF TEMPERATURE BETWEEN LAND AND
SEA...40S TO UPPER 60S...AND DENSITY IMBALANCE ALLOWS THE SHALLOW
AIR TO ACT LIKE A `SIDE DOOR` COLD FRONT. THE THICK LOW CLOUDS AND
OCCASIONAL DRIZZLE WON`T LET ANY INSOLATION IN...AND GIVEN THAT
WE`RE AT THE NADIR OF SUN ANGLE CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT
TEMPERATURES WON`T MOVE MUCH FROM THEIR CURRENT LEVELS.

WITH ALL THIS IN MIND...HAVE PULLED DOWN READINGS BY SOME 5 TO 8
DEGREES INLAND AS HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH 50 TO 55 FROM THE
HIDALGO/CAMERON LINE THROUGH WESTERN KENEDY COUNTY WEST TO THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS. CLOSER TO THE COAST THINGS A BIT TRICKIER. HAVE
SEEN THE `FRONT` SHIFT RIGHT TO LAGUNA MADRE AND BAYVIEW HAS
DROPPED FROM 65 TO 58 LAST HOUR. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND
TWEAK TEMPERATURES FROM IN EASTERN CAMERON AS NEEDED.

AS FOR WINDS...DUMPED THE MODEL WINDS FOR RUC VALUES THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND POPULATED THE MORE REALISTIC NAM 12 WINDS OVERNIGHT
WHICH SHOW THE NORTHWEST/WEST LAND TO SEA FLOW CONTINUING RIGHT
INTO MIDDAY MONDAY. THAT FLOW WILL ALSO LOCK DOWN A COOL-ISH DAY
ALONG/WEST OF HIGHWAY 281...WHILE ENOUGH EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW
SHOULD ARRIVE FARTHER EAST TO BEGIN ERODING THE DAMMED AIRMASS.
HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES WEST OF HIGHWAY 281 ACCORDINGLY AS WELL
AND WILL TWEAK MORE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

AS FOR WEATHER...CURRENT FORECAST OF DRIZZLE/PATCHY LIGHT RAIN
WORKING OUT NICELY. WILL TAKE A CLOSER LOOK FOR FOG POTENTIAL
OVERNIGHT AS SOME AREAS MAY HAVE TEMPERATURE RISES AS THE AIR MASS
SLOWLY MODIFIES. MORE ON THAT POTENTIAL IN A FEW HOURS.

FINALLY...SURF REPORTED RIGHT AT HEAD HEIGHT THIS
MORNING...VERIFYING OUR ADVISORY CONDITIONS. EXPECT THESE
CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND MAY CANCEL THIS
ADVISORY BY 2 PM. STILL DECENT FOR SURFERS...BUT LOUSY WEATHER
KEEPING NON-SURFERS OFF THE BEACH THIS WEEKEND.

MARINE...HAVE LET ADVISORY EXPIRE IN LAGUNA AS WINDS HAVE DROPPED
BELOW 10 KNOTS. IN FACT...WEST SIDE OF LAGUNA (PORT ISABEL CMAN)
HAS SHIFTED TO WEST AS WELL. WORDED AS NORTH 10 TO 15 KNOTS
OVERALL...BUT WENT VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. FOR THE GULF...SEAS AND
SWELL JUST BEGINNING TO DROP AS WINDS FALLING BELOW 20 KNOT
LEVELS...BARELY. ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AFTERNOON.

CLIMATE...PRELIMINARY RAINFALL TOTALS ARE AVAILABLE RIGHT ON
FRONT PAGE ON TOP NEWS AND A GRAPHIC...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV. THE
BIG STORY IS OUT WEST WHERE 2 TO NEARLY 3 INCHES FELL ALONG THE
RIVER FROM NEAR MCALLEN TO SOUTHWEST STARR COUNTY. SOME OF THESE
AREAS HAD NEARLY 50 PERCENT OF THEIR PREVIOUS 14 MONTHS (SINCE
OCTOBER 1 2010) RAINFALL...WHICH WAS BELOW 5 INCHES IN TOTAL.

NOT A DROUGHT KILLER...BUT CERTAINLY A RELIEVER. MORE IN THE
AFTERNOON DISCUSSION.

SHORT TERM UPDATES...52/BSG

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 534 AM CST SUN DEC 11 2011/

DISCUSSION...SEE THE AVIATION SEGMENT BELOW FOR THE DISCUSSION OF
THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGES AS WELL AS SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO INDICATE LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE WITH FOG
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THIS MORNING. CEILINGS
WERE NEAR 400FT AT KMFE AND KT65 TO NEAR 7500FT KBKS. VISIBILITIES
WERE NEAR 3SM WITH DRIZZLE AND FOG AT KAPY TO NEAR 6SM WITH LIGHT
RAIN AND FOG KMFE. EXPECT MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TODAY
WITH LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE WITH FOG CONTINUING TO DEVELOP AS A
COASTAL TROUGH ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST CONTINUES TO ALLOW
MOISTURE TO POOL ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CST SUN DEC 11 2011/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGES
INDICATE LIGHT RAIN FALLING ACROSS SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT AS LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTH TX
AND NORTHEAST MEXICO AS THE COASTAL TROUGH WEAKENS LATER TODAY
INTO THIS EVENING. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES EXTENDING INTO TX WILL WEAKEN ACROSS THE
STATE ALLOWING WINDS TO VEER TO THE EAST TONIGHT AND SOUTHEAST
MONDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF RAIN
WITH OCCASIONAL DRIZZLE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE THE
ISENTROPIC LIFTING ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY DIMINISHES.

STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS AND SWELLS FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL CONTINUE
TO DRIVE HIGH SURF AND PROVIDE A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE
LOWER TEXAS TODAY. WILL GO AHEAD AND EXTEND HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR
THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE CWA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. TIDES ARE
BEGINNING TO FALL AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW ANY MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW
ALONG THE DUNES TO DIMINISH THIS MORNING EVEN THOUGH TIDES CONTINUE
TO RUN 1 FOOT ABOVE NORMAL AND NEAR 2 FEET ABOVE MEAN LOWER LOW
WATER.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...BY MONDAY NIGHT...THE
MIDLEVEL RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF.
THIS WILL PUSH THE SOUTHERN STREAM JET FURTHER NORTH...ALLOWING
THE JET INDUCED SFC COASTAL TROUGH TO DISSIPATE. TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO FORM AND
APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL NUDGE THE RIDGE JUST FAR ENOUGH
EAST TO ALLOW THE FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE REGION BEFORE STALLING.
CURRENT LONG TERM FORECAST HAS THE FRONT DISSIPATING LOCALLY
BEFORE RETREATING NORTHWARD...KEEPING THE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN PLACE FROM TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH ONLY A
BRIEF DECREASE THURSDAY WITH THE FRONT IN THE VICINITY.

MARINE...
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...SEAS WERE NEAR 10 FEET WITH EAST-NORTHEAST
WINDS NEAR 21 KNOTS AT BUOY020 EARLY THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL REMAIN
STRONG FROM THE EAST-NORTHEAST OFFSHORE THE LOWER TX COAST TODAY AND
WILL VEER TO THE EAST TONIGHT BEFORE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE LOWER TX COAST GRADUALLY WEAKENS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AS WINDS VEER TO THE
SOUTHEAST MONDAY. WILL GO AHEAD AND EXTEND THE SCA FOR THE OFFSHORE
WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT FOR SEAS IF NOT WINDS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP
DURING THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS THE COASTAL TROUGH DISSIPATES.
WIND FLOW WILL RUN BETWEEN SFC HIGH TO THE NE AND LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING ALONG THE NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL
APPROACH 20 KNOTS WEDNESDAY...AND WILL DECREASE THURSDAY AS THE
FRONT STALLS IN THE VICINITY. SEAS DURING THE EXTENDED WILL RUN 3
TO 4 FEET TUESDAY...RISING TO 5 TO 7 FEET WEDNESDAY WITH THE
STRONGER WINDS.

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ251-256-
257.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR GMZ150-155-170-
175.

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE

52/51

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS BROWNSVILLE TX

1102 AM CST SUN DEC 11 2011

.DISCUSSION...SEE BELOW FOR SHORT TERM AND MARINE ADJUSTMENTS THIS MORNING.

.SHORT TERM /THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY/...WITH THE WEAKENING
COASTAL TROUGH HAS COME A CONTINUED BACKING OF THE SURFACE WIND TO
THE NORTHWEST WHICH IS EDGING TOWARD THE LAGUNA SHORELINE. THIS IS
NOT TOO SURPRISING GIVEN IMBALANCE OF TEMPERATURE BETWEEN LAND AND
SEA...40S TO UPPER 60S...AND DENSITY IMBALANCE ALLOWS THE SHALLOW
AIR TO ACT LIKE A `SIDE DOOR` COLD FRONT. THE THICK LOW CLOUDS AND
OCCASIONAL DRIZZLE WON`T LET ANY INSOLATION IN...AND GIVEN THAT
WE`RE AT THE NADIR OF SUN ANGLE CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT
TEMPERATURES WON`T MOVE MUCH FROM THEIR CURRENT LEVELS.

.MARINE...HAVE LET ADVISORY EXPIRE IN LAGUNA AS WINDS HAVE DROPPED
BELOW 10 KNOTS. IN FACT...WEST SIDE OF LAGUNA (PORT ISABEL CMAN)
HAS SHIFTED TO WEST AS WELL. WORDED AS NORTH 10 TO 15 KNOTS
OVERALL...BUT WENT VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. FOR THE GULF...SEAS AND
SWELL JUST BEGINNING TO DROP AS WINDS FALLING BELOW 20 KNOT
LEVELS...BARELY. ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AFTERNOON.

.CLIMATE...PRELIMINARY RAINFALL TOTALS ARE AVAILABLE RIGHT ON
FRONT PAGE ON TOP NEWS AND A GRAPHIC...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV. THE
BIG STORY IS OUT WEST WHERE 2 TO NEARLY 3 INCHES FELL ALONG THE
RIVER FROM NEAR MCALLEN TO SOUTHWEST STARR COUNTY. SOME OF THESE
AREAS HAD NEARLY 50 PERCENT OF THEIR PREVIOUS 14 MONTHS (SINCE
OCTOBER 1 2010) RAINFALL...WHICH WAS BELOW 5 INCHES IN TOTAL.

NOT A DROUGHT KILLER...BUT CERTAINLY A RELIEVER. MORE IN THE
AFTERNOON DISCUSSION.

SHORT TERM UPDATES...52/BSG

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 534 AM CST SUN DEC 11 2011/

DISCUSSION...SEE THE AVIATION SEGMENT BELOW FOR THE DISCUSSION OF
THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 66 63 73 68 / 40 20 30 10
BROWNSVILLE 63 60 72 66 / 40 20 30 10
HARLINGEN 61 56 73 65 / 40 20 30 10
MCALLEN 56 52 70 63 / 40 30 40 10
RIO GRANDE CITY 54 51 65 60 / 50 40 40 10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 67 65 72 69 / 40 20 20 10

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ251-256-
257.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR GMZ150-155-170-
175.

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

250 PM CST SUN DEC 11 2011

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
250 PM CST SUN DEC 11 2011

AMPLE CHALLENGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH THE
FOCUS ON THE PCPN TYPE.

TONIGHT AND MONDAY NOT LOOKING AS CLEAR-CUT AS THE PAST FEW DAYS
SUGGESTED IT WOULD BE...WITH FREEZING DRIZZLE TO DRIZZLE AND BACK
OVER TO FREEZING DRIZZLE. PCPN WILL OCCUR FOR THE REGION...BUT WHAT
FALLS IS MORE HAZY NOW.

LATEST FOG/STRATUS SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF
STRATUS MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS...SURGING ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA. THIS WAS IN RESPONSE TO A WARM/MOIST PUSH OF LOW LEVEL
AIR RIDING ACROSS A SNOW PACK. DESPITE WINDS OF 10 KTS OR
GREATER...VSBYS WITH THE STRATUS ARE 2-4 MILES...BRINGING AN ASPECT
OF ADVECTION FOG TO THE FORECAST.

THE FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT/WARM AIR ADVECTION NOSES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...PERSISTING THROUGH MUCH OF
MONDAY. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE THAT WILL
SPIN FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY BY 18Z MON. THE SATURATION IS ALL IN THE LOW LEVELS
THOUGH...AS EVIDENCED BY TIME/HEIGHT X-SECTIONS AND BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS. AS SUCH...THE DEPTH OF THE SATURATION AND TEMPS AT THE
TOP OF THE ANTICIPATED CLOUD LAYER WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE PCPN
TYPE. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS POINTED TO NO ICE IN THE CLOUD...THUS
LIQUID AND LIKELY DRIZZLE. HOWEVER...INDICATIONS NOW ARE THAT -10 TO
-12 C COULD BE REALIZED IN CLOUD TOPS...MAKING ICE MORE LIKELY AND
POTENTIALLY SNOW IF THE REST OF THE THERMAL PROFILE WOULD SUPPORT
IT. IN ADDITION...THE SATURATION COULD BECOME DEEP ENOUGH FOR A
PERIOD ON SAT WHERE RAIN WOULD BE MORE LIKELY RATHER THAN DRIZZLE.
ACCUMULATION WOULD STILL BE MINOR...AND BELIEVE DRIZZLE WILL BE THE
MORE PREDOMINANT LIQUID TYPE...SO WILL STAY WITH DRIZZLE FOR NOW.

ANOTHER QUESTION THAT HAS BECOME PROBLEMATIC ARE SFC TEMPS.
PREVIOUSLY FREEZING TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT/MONDAY MORNING LOOKED
LIKE A SURE THING FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. LATEST MODELS RUNS
BRING THIS INTO QUESTION. THE LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL NOT
ONLY GO INTO CLOUD/PCPN PRODUCTION LATE TONIGHT...BUT IT SHOULD ALSO
SERVE TO HELP STEADY...OR EVEN RISE...TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. IF
THIS OCCURS...WESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA HAVE A
PRETTY GOOD CHANCE OF STAYING ABOVE FREEZING. LATEST RUC13 TEMPS AND
LAMP GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS...AND HAVE TAILORED TEMPS TONIGHT THIS
WAY. AS A RESULT...THE WESTERN 1/2 OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL LIKELY
MISS OUT ON ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE. FARTHER EAST THOUGH TEMPS HAVE A
MUCH BETTER CHANCE TO COOL TO FREEZING...AND THUS AN ICING THREAT
WHEN THE DRIZZLE MOVES IN. WILL GO WITH A FREEZING RAIN ADV FOR THE
COUNTIES IN THE EAST...ESPECIALLY IN THE I-94 CORRIDOR...FROM 09-15Z
MON.

THIS SCENARIO WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED VERY CLOSELY TONIGHT...AS
THE AMOUNT OF WARMING AND ONSET OF THE DRIZZLE WILL OBVIOUSLY PLAY
KEY ROLES IN WHERE THE FREEZING DRIZZLE THREAT WILL BE HIGHEST.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIFT OUT OF THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST...BRINGING THE TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE REGION ON WED. THIS
SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE IT COULD PACK A PRETTY GOOD PUNCH WITH GOOD QG
CONVERGENCE...SLOPING FRONTOGENETIC LIFT...AND THE ENERGY FROM THE
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE. TIMING AND POSITIONING WILL PLAY AN IMPORTANT
ROLE AS WARM AIR WILL BE A FACTOR FOR PCPN TYPE.
UNFORTUNATELY...EACH MODEL HAS A DIFFERENT IDEA ON WHAT WILL
OCCUR...AND BRINGS THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE DOWN AS A RESULT. NAM IS
THE QUICKEST OF ALL...TAKING THE SFC LOW TO LAKE SUPERIOR BY 00Z
THU. THE GFS IS OVER SOUTHWEST IA...THE EC THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND
THE GEM EASTERN IA. A LOT OF INCONSISTENCY WITHIN THE MODELS
TOO...EXCEPT FOR THE EC WHICH SHOWS A BIT BETTER RUN TO RUN
AGREEMENT. WILL LEAN ON THE EC AS A RESULT...BLENDING IT WITH THE
CONSENSUS SOLUTION.

BEFORE THE HEART OF THE SYSTEM MOVES IN WED
AFTERNOON/NIGHT...ANOTHER GOOD SURGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT/WARM AIR ADVECTION TUE NIGHT/WED MORNING WILL LIKELY LEAD
TO A BROAD AREA OF PRECIPITATION SPREADING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
REGION. SATURATION LOOKS DEEP ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ICE IN THE
CLOUD...BUT WARMING IN THE NEAR SFC LAYER SUGGESTS MELTING AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN. THE WARMING CONTINUES FOR THE
REST OF WED AS THE MAIN PART OF THE STORM MOVES IN...WITH RAIN THE
LIKELY PCPN TYPE AS A RESULT. LOOKS LIKE ANY SNOW BAND WITH THIS
STORM WILL HANG WELL WEST/NORTH. OVERALL...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR. WHEN ITS MOST LIKELY IS NOT. CONFIDENCE IS
ALSO RISING THAT IT WILL LIKELY BE RAIN FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
EVENT.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
250 PM CST SUN DEC 11 2011

MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE...LOWERING CONFIDENCE IN SOME OF THE
DETAILS. WHILE THE GFS HAS MOVED TO A NORTHWEST STORM TRACK ALA THE
ECMWF AND GEM...STILL LOTS OF TIMING VARIANCE ON HOW QUICKLY THE
SYSTEM WILL KICK NORTHEAST. THE GFS IS THE FAST SOLUTION...WITH THE
EC SLOWER AND THE GEM IN BETWEEN. THE EC WOULD LINGER PCPN LONGER
OVER THE FORECAST AREA...CONTINUING INTO THU. ALSO...WITH THE EC
STAYING THE FARTHEST WEST...ITS ALSO MUCH WARMER MAKING RAIN A
MORE LIKELY PCPN TYPE FOR A LONGER STRETCH OF TIME. PCPN TYPE WILL
BE A DIFFICULTY WITH THIS STORM. WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN ON THE
EC/CONSENSUS SOLUTION FOR NOW.

HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THU NIGHT...MOVING
OVERHEAD FOR SAT WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TAKES ON A MORE ZONAL
SHAPE FOR THE WEEKEND. FRI/SAT SHOULD BE DRY WITH SEASONAL TEMPS.

.AVIATION...THROUGH 18Z MONDAY
1156 AM CST SUN DEC 11 2011

MAIN CHALLENGES THIS TAF PERIOD ARE CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY
ASSOCIATED WITH STRATUS / FOG LAYER ADVECTING IN FROM CENTRAL AND
WESTERN IOWA...AND FREEZING DRIZZLE POTENTIAL DURING THE OVERNIGHT.

WITH WARM AIR AND STRONG MOISTURE RETURN OVER MELTING
SNOWPACK...LARGE AREA OF IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS ONGOING AT 18Z
SUNDAY. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE IMPACTED AT BOTH TAF
SITES...WHERE AT KRST CLOUD BASES WILL BE AROUND 500 FT
INITIALLY...AND DROPPING THROUGH THE EVENING TO AROUND 300 FT. AT
KLSE...CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN AOA 1000 FT...BECOMING BROKEN AT 800
FT BY 00Z.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO FREEZING DRIZZLE POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. LATEST RUC AND NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING WITH A
DEEP SATURATED LAYER. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CLOSELY BUT AT THIS
TIME...REMOVED FREEZING DRIZZLE FROM FORECAST. REGARDLESS...LIFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST AT KRST AND IFR CONDITIONS AT KLSE
OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
250 PM CST SUN DEC 11 2011

WI...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CST MONDAY FOR WIZ017-
029-034-042>044-053>055-061.

MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.

SHORT TERM... RIECK
LONG TERM.... RIECK
AVIATION..... DAS/ZT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

1157 AM CST SUN DEC 11 2011

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
315 AM CST SUN DEC 11 2011

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS CENTERED ON FREEZING DRIZZLE AND ICING
POTENTIAL FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND THE NEED FOR A
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
315 AM CST SUN DEC 11 2011

.AVIATION...THROUGH 18Z MONDAY
1156 AM CST SUN DEC 11 2011

MAIN CHALLENGES THIS TAF PERIOD ARE CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY
ASSOCIATED WITH STRATUS / FOG LAYER ADVECTING IN FROM CENTRAL AND
WESTERN IOWA...AND FREEZING DRIZZLE POTENTIAL DURING THE OVERNIGHT.

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
315 AM CST SUN DEC 11 2011

WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.

SHORT TERM...RABERDING
LONG TERM....RABERDING
AVIATION...DAS/ZT