Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 11/16/11
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
307 PM MST MON NOV 14 2011
.SHORT TERM...
(TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS EL PASO AND
PUEBLO COUNTIES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...DUE TO A COMBINATION OF
LEE TROFFING AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MODELS DID NOT HAVE A VERY
GOOD HANDLE ON DEW POINTS TODAY...AS DRY AIR BEHIND YESTERDAY`S
DEPARTING SYSTEM TANKED DEW POINTS INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND
10 DEGREES ALONG THE LOWER EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS
AND I-25 CORRIDOR. RUC13 AND HRRR WERE THE FIRST TO CATCH ON TO
THIS. SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT IS TIGHTEST ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA WHICH WILL KEEP BREEZY WEST WINDS ACROSS PUEBLO AND EL PASO
COUNTY THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. FARTHER EAST OF
THE I-25 CORRIDOR...HAVE SEEN SOME OCCASIONALLY BREEZY WEST WINDS
KICK IN AS FAR EAST AS LHX...HOWEVER THEY HAVE BEEN LESS
PERSISTENT...AND THINK THAT IT WON`T QUITE MAKE THE 3 HOUR DURATION
REQUIRED FOR A RED FLAG WARNING. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER 00Z.
WITH THE DRY AIR IN PLACE...CHALLENGE WILL BE HOW COOL LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP. LOWER EASTERN SLOPES NEAR THE MTS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE SOME WESTERLY DRAINAGE WINDS OVERNIGHT WHICH
SHOULD KEEP MIN TEMPS AROUND 40. HOWEVER WHERE WINDS
DECOUPLE...EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP
QUICKLY. HAVE GONE ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR LOWS NEAR THE MTS...BUT KEPT
MINS ON THE LOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE ELSEWHERE.
FOR TOMORROW...NEXT WEAK WAVE EMBEDDED IN NW FLOW ALOFT WILL
APPROACH THE AREA. SHOULD SEE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS RAMP UP FOR
THE CENTRAL MTS. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHTER TOMORROW ACROSS THE
PLAINS...THOUGH A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH NRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
IN THE AFTERNOON. OVERALL TEMPS SHOULD NET A FEW DEGREES COOLER
ACROSS THE PLAINS. ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS MAY SPREAD ACROSS NORTHERN
EL PASO COUNTY IN THE LATE AFTN AS UPPER JET DYNAMICS MOVES IN ALOFT
AND FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. THINK MAIN THREAT WILL BE IN THE
EVENING...SO WILL MAINTAIN THE 10 POPS FOR NOW. -KT
.LONG TERM...
(TUESDAY NIGHT-MONDAY)
TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION AS ANOTHER EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE
TRANSLATES ACROSS THE ROCKIES. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND CROSS SECTIONS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A FAIRLY SHALLOW LAYER OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE
STREAMING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT DIFFER ON LOCATION
OF BEST UVV WITH WITH PASSING JET CORE. AT ANY RATE...WITH CONTINUED
GOOD OROGRAPHIC FLOW...BEST POPS TO REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN
SAWATCH AND MOSQUITO RANGES EARLY TUESDAY EVENING WITH ANY SNOWFALL
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT TUESDAY. HAVE ALSO KEPT SLIGHT POPS ACROSS THE
PIKES PEAK REGION AS WELL...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A QUICK SHOT A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE GENERALLY
BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE PLAINS
WITH LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY...MODERATING WESTERLY FLOW PROGGED ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS JET STREAM LIFTS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER OF STATES. DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPS WARMING BACK TO
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES CAN BE EXPECTED. LEE TROUGHING ON THE PLAINS
WILL ALSO LEAD TO BREEZY CONDITIONS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
FRIDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...MODELS COMING INTO THE BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
SNOWFALL BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
ALONG AND WEST OF THE CONTDVD AS WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES
AHEAD OF AN EASTERN PACIFIC SYSTEM DIGGING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN
FRIDAY WHICH CONTINUES TO LIFT OUT ACROSS THE STATE ON SATURDAY.
PASSING WAVE LOOKS TO BRING ANOTHER BOUT OF WINDY TO VERY WINDY
CONDITIONS TO THE EASTERN MTS AND PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGING IN A MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS TO
THE AREA ON SUNDAY. AT THIS TIME...THE BULK OF THE COLDEST AIR LOOKS
TO REMAIN WELL EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...THOUGH WILL
NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR. -MW
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL 3 TAF SITES THROUGH TUESDAY. SOME GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT THE TAF SITES UNTIL 01-02Z...WITH
LIGHT DRAINAGE WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. ON TUESDAY...WEAK FRONT
WILL DROP THROUGH THE PLAINS WITH WINDS AT KCOS STAYING OUT OF THE
NW DURING THE MORNING. FOR KPUB...FRONT WILL LIKELY BACKDOOR IN
WITH WINDS SWITCHING AROUND FROM THE EAST DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON. MAIN NORTHERLY SURGE WITH THE FRONT WILL DROP IN
TOMORROW EVENING BRINGING A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTH WINDS OF 15
TO 25 KTS. MEANWHILE...WINDS AT KALS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OVERNIGHT
BEFORE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH AROUND 10 KTS TUES AFTN. -KT
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ226>228.
&&
$$
31/23
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1030 AM MST MON NOV 14 2011
.UPDATE...
MUCH DRIER AIR HAS MOVED INTO EL PASO COUNTY BEHIND YESTERDAY`S DEPARTING
SYSTEM. DEW POINTS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND
10 DEGREES. RUC AND HRRR HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE CURRENT
CONDITIONS THAN NAM12. BREEZY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO KICK IN BY AFTERNOON...AND WITH HUMIDITIES NOW ANTICIPATED TO
BE BELOW 15 PERCENT...THIS WILL RESULT IN CRITICAL CONDITIONS FOR
FIRE WEATHER. THIS WILL BE LONGEST IN DURATION ACROSS EL PASO AND
PUEBLO COUNTIES. HOWEVER...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THESE GUSTY
WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES TO SPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS OF CROWLEY AND
OTERO COUNTIES AS WELL. FOR NOW...THINK THE 3 HOUR DURATION OF
CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE MET ACROSS CROWLEY AND OTERO...SO
WILL LIMIT RED FLAG WARNING TO PUEBLO AND EL PASO COUNTIES FOR NOW
AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT TAF SITES TODAY. GUSTY WEST TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE AT 15-25 KTS AT KCOS AND KPUB BETWEEN 19-20Z.
PERIODIC MTN OBSCURATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE TODAY WITH ISOLATED -SHSN.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 AM MST MON NOV 14 2011/
SHORT TERM...
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
QUIET WX EXPECTED FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE TROUGH THAT BROUGHT US
STRONG WINDS OVR THE WEEKEND IS NOW MOVING INTO WRN KS. WILL SEE
BREEZY CONDITIONS OVR THE MTNS AND PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS WIND DOWN
THIS MORNING AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES EWD. TEMPS TODAY WILL BE A FEW DEG
COOLER AS TEMPS ALOFT FALL A FEW DEGREES. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A BIT
OF MOISTURE STREAM OVR THE CONTDVD N OF KMYP...SO A FEW SHSN NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION FOR LAKE AND CHAFFEE COUNTIES...PARTICULARLY FOR THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. BEST CHANCE FOR SN WILL BE EARLY MON MORNING. NOT
EXPECTING ANY ACCUMS. IT WILL REMAIN DRY WITH A FAIR AMT OF SUN
ELSEWHERE. 44
LONG TERM...
(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
TWO WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT PARTS OF THE REGION DURING THIS FCST
PERIOD. THE FIRST WILL BE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING...AND THE 2ND
WILL BE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. BOTH OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL
AFFECT MAINLY THE MTNS ALONG THE CONTDVD.
TUESDAYS SYSTEM WILL BE A QUICK MOVING SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE
STOUT NW FLOW THAT WILL BE OVER THE REGION DURING THIS TIME.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOWS TO THE C MTNS
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING. IT MAY ALSO BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE
PIKES PEAK REGION TUESDAY EVENING.
THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE A LARGE BROAD WAVE WHICH IS FCST TO
TRANSLATE RATHER QUICKLY ACROSS THE W CONUS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SAT.
THIS LARGE SCALE WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AS AN OPEN WAVE
AND EXPECT THE ONLY SENSIBLE WX (SNOW) WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
CONTDVD. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE.
EXCEPT FOR TUESDAYS SYSTEM...THE PLAINS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY
DURING THIS PERIOD. TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD BE
SEASONABLE. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS MAY OCCUR ON THE PLAINS IN
ADVANCE OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH ON SATURDAY.
THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP FOR THE PLAINS CONTINUES TO BE BEYOND THIS
FCST PERIOD...AND THIS CHANCE WILL OCCUR NEXT TUESDAY...22 NOV.
/34
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE TAF SITES NEXT 24 H. WINDS SHOULD RELAX THIS
MORNING AND REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME PARTIAL MTN
OBSCURATION POSSIBLE ALONG THE CONTDVD N OF KMYP IN PERSISTENT SCT
SHSN. 44
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ226>228.
&&
$$
31/23
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
113 PM EST MON NOV 14 2011
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION THIS MORNING AND THROUGH OUR REGION BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL THEN STALL OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION
AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG IT ON WEDNESDAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR MUCH
OF THE TIME THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1PM EST...RAIN SHOWERS PASSING OVER THE CAPITAL REGION HAVE
ALREADY COOLED TEMPS TO LOW 50S. ELSEWHERE...CLOUDS FINALLY
STARTING TO SPREAD OVER THE REST OF THE CWA. PRECIP STILL CONFINED
MOSTLY TO CENTER OF CWA. INCREASED POPS OVER THIS AREA AS PRECIP
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THERE. WINDS ALSO SLOW TO INCREASE WITH GUSTS
ONLY CURRENTLY OCCURING AT GFL. HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPS AND WINDS TO
ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS.
AS OF 1050 AM EST...CLOUDS HAVE INCREASED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION...WITH PATCHY LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
CAPITAL REGION...EXTENDING SOUTH AND WEST INTO THE SCHOHARIE
VALLEY AND CATSKILLS. INCREASING MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD
SUPPORT A GENERAL EXPANSION OF LIGHT RAIN THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
CAPITAL REGION...AND EVENTUALLY AREAS N OF THE MOHAWK RIVER BY
EARLY/MID AFTERNOON...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST HRRR AND
RUC13. THE LOW LEVELS REMAIN SOMEWHAT DRY...ESP IN THE
VALLEYS...WHERE LATEST DEWPOINTS REMAINED IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
SO...ONCE RAIN DEVELOPS...WET BULB COOLING SHOULD
COMMENCE...LIMITING MUCH FURTHER RISE IN TEMPS. SO...HAVE TWEAKED
MAX TEMPS DOWNWARD BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES...ALTHOUGH NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE REGION MAY STILL EXPERIENCE A BIT MORE WARMING AS
THE RAIN HOLDS OFF A BIT. PLACES SUCH AS BENNINGTON VT WILL LIKELY
REACH THE MID 60S BEFORE COOLING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
WE HAVE ALSO BOOSTED WINDS A BIT OVER THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS WITHIN
THE IMMEDIATE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...WHERE SOME GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH
ARE POSSIBLE...ESP AS THE RAIN BEGINS...AND STRONG EVAPORATIONAL
COOLING HELPS DRAG STRONGER WINDS FROM ALOFT DOWNWARD.
OTHERWISE...JUST SOME MODIFICATIONS TO HOURLY TEMPS/DEWPOINTS
BASED ON RECENT OBS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
AS OF 630 AM...PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND VERY MILD TEMPS
PREVAILED ACROSS THE FA WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE 40S TO MID
50S. HAVE ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS TO REFLECT INCREASING CLOUDS THIS
MORNING AND HAVE BACKED OFF TIMING OF ONSET OF SHOWERS BY SEVERAL
HOURS AS MUCH OF LEADING EDGE OF PCPN ON MOSAIC RADAR LOOP
CURRENTLY VIRGA WITH PCPN REACHING THE GROUND BACK ACROSS WESTERN PA.
AS OF 4 AM...CLOUDY SKIES AND MILD TEMPS PREVAILED ACROSS THE FA
WITH READINGS GENERALLY IN THE 40S AND 50S. MUCH OF THE FA WAS DRY
EXCEPT FOR A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.
THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT IN TERMS OF THE H5
TROF AXIS ACRS THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY TODAY AND THE LOW
PRESSURE CENTER AT THE SURFACE MOVING INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES EXIST IN THE
QPF FIELDS ESPECIALLY CONCERNING THE AREA OF SHOWERS LIFTING EAST
NORTHEAST FROM WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE GFS
AND TO A LESSER DEGREE THE NAM HAVE QPF AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER TO A
HALF INCH ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA WITH THESE SHOWERS
WHILE THE ECMWF AND THE GGEM HAVE THE SHOWERS WEAKENING AS THEY
MOVE INTO THE FA WITH THE HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS DURING THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FA AHEAD OF THE LOW
MOVING INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH A
COMPROMISE SOLUTION ON QPF AND MAINLY CHANCE POPS AS MUCH OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE SCATTERED IN NATURE BY THE TIME IT
REACHES FA STARTING LATER THIS MORNING. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MILD TODAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S AS H8
TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE +8 TO +9 C RANGE. IT WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO
BE WINDY AS PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS FAIRLY STRONG AHEAD OF
APPROACHING LOW. GENERALLY EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS 1O TO 20 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES WILL RESULT IN THE BULK OF THE PCPN FALLING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA THIS EVENING. THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY IMPROVING CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT
WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE FA IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW AND BE
POSITIONED JUST SOUTH OF THE FA BY TUESDAY MORNING. FOR TONIGHT
HAVE PLACED HIGHEST POPS NORTH AND WEST THIS EVENING AND LOWEST
POPS SOUTH AND EAST. ALSO EXPECT THAT THERE MAY BE A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER THIS EVENING AND HAVE PLACED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
GRIDS AS SHOWALTER INDICES FALL TO JUST BELOW ZERO ALONG WITH ML
MUCAPES OF SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG. EXPECT QPF AMOUNTS THROUGH
TONIGHT TO GENERALLY BE BETWEEN A QUARTER AND A HALF INCH IN MOST
PLACES WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS NORTHWEST AND LOWEST AMOUNTS
SOUTHEAST. LOWS OVERNIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 40S TO
LOWER 50S.
TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY AT THIS POINT AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE FA IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION.
EXPECT THAT THERE WILL BE MORE SUN NORTH AND LESS SUN SOUTH WITH
HIGHS STILL RELATIVELY MILD IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.
FOR THE PERIOD FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE
MODELS DIVERGE AGAIN IN SOLUTIONS REGARDING A WAVE OR WAVES OF
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED
TO OUR SOUTH. THE NAM IS MUCH QUICKER AND HAS MUCH LESS OF AN
IMPACT ON THE FA THAN THE OTHER MODELS REGARDING THIS
FEATURE...WHILE THE GGEM AND GFS ARE SIMILAR WITH A MAINLY WED EVENT
AND THE ECMWF IS CONSIDERABLY SLOWER WITH A FARTHER NORTH AND
WEST EXTENT OF THE PCPN SHIELD AND A LATER ARRIVAL AND DEPARTURE
TIME OF THE PCPN MAINLY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING. WILL COMPROMISE ON THESE LATER TWO SOLUTIONS AND HAVE
HIGHEST POPS SOUTHEAST AND LOWEST POPS NORTHWEST FROM LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT ANY
LINGERING PCPN ACROSS SRN VT AND THE NRN BERKS WED EVENING MAY END
AS A LITTLE BIT OF SNOW WITH H8 TEMPS DROPPING TO -2 TO -4 C BY
06Z THU. THE SECOND HALF OF WED NIGHT LOOKS DRY IN THE WAKE OF
DEPARTING LOW. EXPECT LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S...HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S AND LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S. TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS FROM
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH NORTHWEST TO AROUND HALF AN INCH SOUTHEAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT THE START OF THIS PERIOD...AN UPPER TROF WILL APPROACH THE
REGION AND PASS THROUGH FAIRLY QUICKLY. BROAD RIDGING WILL BEGIN
TO SET IN ON FRIDAY. BRISK WEST NORTHWEST WINDS WILL USHER IN
COOLER AIR FOR THE START...ALONG WITH SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN
INSTABILITY SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE ALBANY
AREA WHERE SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT MAY ALLOW FOR SOME RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO AROUND 50 IN THE HUDSON VALLEY
SOUTH OF ALBANY...COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
OVERHEAD...WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS AND CHANCE POPS NORTH AND WEST
DIMINISHING TO NO POPS OVER MUCH OF THE HUDSON VALLEY...OR LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS AND UPPER MOHAWK VALLEY...BUT THE REST OF THE REGION
SHOULD BE DRY AND CHILLY THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM
THE LOWER 20S ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS...
CATSKILLS...SOUTHERN VERMONT...AND THE BERKSHIRES TO THE MID AND
UPPER 20S IN THE MOHAWK...HUDSON...AND HOUSATONIC VALLEYS...WITH
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS NORTH AND WEST AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
OVER THE HUDSON VALLEY AND FARTHER EAST.
THE TROUGH EXITS OUT THE REGION AS BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW AT 500 HPA
TAKES OVER FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH
WILL ALLOW FOR WARMING STARTING ON FRIDAY. WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES HIGHS FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO THE
UPPER 40S. IT WILL NOT BE AS COLD FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS FROM THE
MID 20S TO THE LOWER 30S.
ON SATURDAY...ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE PLAINS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD SOME CLOUDINESS INTO THE REGION
WITH AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT. IN SPITE OF INCREASED CLOUDINESS
SATURDAY WILL BE WARMER WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 40S TO THE LOW 50S.
AS THE WARM FRONT GETS CLOSER SATURDAY NIGHT IT WILL BRING ABOUT AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST. IT WILL BE MILDER ON
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 30S. SUNDAY WILL BE MOSTLY
CLOUDY WITH A POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST
OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. HIGHS WILL BE FROM THE MID 40S TO THE LOWER
50S...ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1245 PM EST...LIGHT RAIN HAS DEVELOPED AT KALB...WHILE
REMAINING GENERALLY NORTH OF KPOU...AND THUS FAR...SOUTH OF KGFL.
HOWEVER...THE RAIN SHOULD EXPAND NORTH AND EAST DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN AFFECTING KALB AND
KGFL THROUGH SUNSET. DESPITE THIS LIGHT RAIN...EXPECT MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS...POSSIBLY BECOMING MVFR FOR CIGS TOWARD SUNSET. AT
KPOU...OTHER THAN PERHAPS A FEW SPRINKLES...EXPECT MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNSET.
FOR TONIGHT...THE RAIN SHOULD BECOME MORE SHOWERY AT KALB AND
KGFL...AS A WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. THEN...AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NW...EXPECT A BAND OF SHOWERS TO GRADUALLY
SETTLE SOUTHEAST ACROSS KGFL AND KALB ONCE AGAIN LATER THIS
EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A RUMBLE OF THUNDER COULD BE
EMBEDDED WITHIN THESE SHOWERS...BUT DUE TO OVERALL LOW
PROBABILITY...HAVE KEPT OUT ANY MENTION AT THIS TIME. EXPECT MVFR
TO ISOLATED IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.
THE SHOWERS SHOULD THEN SETTLE SOUTHWARD AFTER MIDNIGHT...TAPERING
OFF AT KGFL AND KALB BEFORE SUNRISE. AT KPOU...LITTLE IF ANY RAIN
IS EXPECTED UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING...WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AS THE
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. ALL AREAS SHOULD THEN TREND INTO VFR BY
MID TO LATE MORNING TUE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...IFR/MVFR IMPROVING TO VFR BY AFTERNOON.
TUE NGT...SUB-VFR CIG...LIKELY -SHRA.
WED-WED NGT...VFR/MVFR...CHC -SHRA.
THU...VFR...BREEZY.
FRI-SAT...VFR...NO SIG WX.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK.
UP TO A HALF INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
THIS RAIN MIGHT CAUSE SOME MINOR INCREASES IN STREAMFLOWS...BUT
MOST OF IT WILL JUST SOAK INTO THE GROUND.
MORE RAINFALL MAY OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...BUT AGAIN IT LOOKS LIKE
AMOUNTS SHOULD NOT BE MUCH MORE THAN A HALF INCH...IF THAT MUCH.
AGAIN THIS RAIN WILL MOSTLY JUST SOAK INTO THE GROUND...AND NOT
HAVE MUCH EFFECT ON THE RIVERS AND STREAMS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...11
NEAR TERM...KL/KGM/11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...RCK
AVIATION...RCK/KL
HYDROLOGY...RCK/11
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
1246 PM EST MON NOV 14 2011
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION THIS MORNING AND THROUGH OUR REGION BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL THEN STALL OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION
AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG IT ON WEDNESDAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR MUCH
OF THE TIME THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1050 AM EST...CLOUDS HAVE INCREASED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION...WITH PATCHY LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
CAPITAL REGION...EXTENDING SOUTH AND WEST INTO THE SCHOHARIE
VALLEY AND CATSKILLS. INCREASING MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD
SUPPORT A GENERAL EXPANSION OF LIGHT RAIN THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
CAPITAL REGION...AND EVENTUALLY AREAS N OF THE MOHAWK RIVER BY
EARLY/MID AFTERNOON...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST HRRR AND
RUC13. THE LOW LEVELS REMAIN SOMEWHAT DRY...ESP IN THE
VALLEYS...WHERE LATEST DEWPOINTS REMAINED IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
SO...ONCE RAIN DEVELOPS...WET BULB COOLING SHOULD
COMMENCE...LIMITING MUCH FURTHER RISE IN TEMPS. SO...HAVE TWEAKED
MAX TEMPS DOWNWARD BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES...ALTHOUGH NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE REGION MAY STILL EXPERIENCE A BIT MORE WARMING AS
THE RAIN HOLDS OFF A BIT. PLACES SUCH AS BENNINGTON VT WILL LIKELY
REACH THE MID 60S BEFORE COOLING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
WE HAVE ALSO BOOSTED WINDS A BIT OVER THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS WITHIN
THE IMMEDIATE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...WHERE SOME GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH
ARE POSSIBLE...ESP AS THE RAIN BEGINS...AND STRONG EVAPORATIONAL
COOLING HELPS DRAG STRONGER WINDS FROM ALOFT DOWNWARD.
OTHERWISE...JUST SOME MODIFICATIONS TO HOURLY TEMPS/DEWPOINTS
BASED ON RECENT OBS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
AS OF 630 AM...PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND VERY MILD TEMPS
PREVAILED ACROSS THE FA WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE 40S TO MID
50S. HAVE ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS TO REFLECT INCREASING CLOUDS THIS
MORNING AND HAVE BACKED OFF TIMING OF ONSET OF SHOWERS BY SEVERAL
HOURS AS MUCH OF LEADING EDGE OF PCPN ON MOSAIC RADAR LOOP
CURRENTLY VIRGA WITH PCPN REACHING THE GROUND BACK ACROSS WESTERN PA.
AS OF 4 AM...CLOUDY SKIES AND MILD TEMPS PREVAILED ACROSS THE FA
WITH READINGS GENERALLY IN THE 40S AND 50S. MUCH OF THE FA WAS DRY
EXCEPT FOR A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.
THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT IN TERMS OF THE H5
TROF AXIS ACRS THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY TODAY AND THE LOW
PRESSURE CENTER AT THE SURFACE MOVING INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES EXIST IN THE
QPF FIELDS ESPECIALLY CONCERNING THE AREA OF SHOWERS LIFTING EAST
NORTHEAST FROM WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE GFS
AND TO A LESSER DEGREE THE NAM HAVE QPF AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER TO A
HALF INCH ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA WITH THESE SHOWERS
WHILE THE ECMWF AND THE GGEM HAVE THE SHOWERS WEAKENING AS THEY
MOVE INTO THE FA WITH THE HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS DURING THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FA AHEAD OF THE LOW
MOVING INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH A
COMPROMISE SOLUTION ON QPF AND MAINLY CHANCE POPS AS MUCH OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE SCATTERED IN NATURE BY THE TIME IT
REACHES FA STARTING LATER THIS MORNING. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MILD TODAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S AS H8
TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE +8 TO +9 C RANGE. IT WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO
BE WINDY AS PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS FAIRLY STRONG AHEAD OF
APPROACHING LOW. GENERALLY EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS 1O TO 20 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES WILL RESULT IN THE BULK OF THE PCPN FALLING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA THIS EVENING. THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY IMPROVING CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT
WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE FA IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW AND BE
POSITIONED JUST SOUTH OF THE FA BY TUESDAY MORNING. FOR TONIGHT
HAVE PLACED HIGHEST POPS NORTH AND WEST THIS EVENING AND LOWEST
POPS SOUTH AND EAST. ALSO EXPECT THAT THERE MAY BE A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER THIS EVENING AND HAVE PLACED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
GRIDS AS SHOWALTER INDICES FALL TO JUST BELOW ZERO ALONG WITH ML
MUCAPES OF SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG. EXPECT QPF AMOUNTS THROUGH
TONIGHT TO GENERALLY BE BETWEEN A QUARTER AND A HALF INCH IN MOST
PLACES WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS NORTHWEST AND LOWEST AMOUNTS
SOUTHEAST. LOWS OVERNIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 40S TO
LOWER 50S.
TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY AT THIS POINT AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE FA IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION.
EXPECT THAT THERE WILL BE MORE SUN NORTH AND LESS SUN SOUTH WITH
HIGHS STILL RELATIVELY MILD IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.
FOR THE PERIOD FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE
MODELS DIVERGE AGAIN IN SOLUTIONS REGARDING A WAVE OR WAVES OF
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED
TO OUR SOUTH. THE NAM IS MUCH QUICKER AND HAS MUCH LESS OF AN
IMPACT ON THE FA THAN THE OTHER MODELS REGARDING THIS
FEATURE...WHILE THE GGEM AND GFS ARE SIMILAR WITH A MAINLY WED EVENT
AND THE ECMWF IS CONSIDERABLY SLOWER WITH A FARTHER NORTH AND
WEST EXTENT OF THE PCPN SHIELD AND A LATER ARRIVAL AND DEPARTURE
TIME OF THE PCPN MAINLY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING. WILL COMPROMISE ON THESE LATER TWO SOLUTIONS AND HAVE
HIGHEST POPS SOUTHEAST AND LOWEST POPS NORTHWEST FROM LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT ANY
LINGERING PCPN ACROSS SRN VT AND THE NRN BERKS WED EVENING MAY END
AS A LITTLE BIT OF SNOW WITH H8 TEMPS DROPPING TO -2 TO -4 C BY
06Z THU. THE SECOND HALF OF WED NIGHT LOOKS DRY IN THE WAKE OF
DEPARTING LOW. EXPECT LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S...HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S AND LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S. TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS FROM
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH NORTHWEST TO AROUND HALF AN INCH SOUTHEAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT THE START OF THIS PERIOD...AN UPPER TROF WILL APPROACH THE
REGION AND PASS THROUGH FAIRLY QUICKLY. BROAD RIDGING WILL BEGIN
TO SET IN ON FRIDAY. BRISK WEST NORTHWEST WINDS WILL USHER IN
COOLER AIR FOR THE START...ALONG WITH SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN
INSTABILITY SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE ALBANY
AREA WHERE SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT MAY ALLOW FOR SOME RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO AROUND 50 IN THE HUDSON VALLEY
SOUTH OF ALBANY...COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
OVERHEAD...WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS AND CHANCE POPS NORTH AND WEST
DIMINISHING TO NO POPS OVER MUCH OF THE HUDSON VALLEY...OR LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS AND UPPER MOHAWK VALLEY...BUT THE REST OF THE REGION
SHOULD BE DRY AND CHILLY THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM
THE LOWER 20S ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS...
CATSKILLS...SOUTHERN VERMONT...AND THE BERKSHIRES TO THE MID AND
UPPER 20S IN THE MOHAWK...HUDSON...AND HOUSATONIC VALLEYS...WITH
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS NORTH AND WEST AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
OVER THE HUDSON VALLEY AND FARTHER EAST.
THE TROUGH EXITS OUT THE REGION AS BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW AT 500 HPA
TAKES OVER FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH
WILL ALLOW FOR WARMING STARTING ON FRIDAY. WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES HIGHS FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO THE
UPPER 40S. IT WILL NOT BE AS COLD FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS FROM THE
MID 20S TO THE LOWER 30S.
ON SATURDAY...ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE PLAINS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD SOME CLOUDINESS INTO THE REGION
WITH AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT. IN SPITE OF INCREASED CLOUDINESS
SATURDAY WILL BE WARMER WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 40S TO THE LOW 50S.
AS THE WARM FRONT GETS CLOSER SATURDAY NIGHT IT WILL BRING ABOUT AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST. IT WILL BE MILDER ON
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 30S. SUNDAY WILL BE MOSTLY
CLOUDY WITH A POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST
OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. HIGHS WILL BE FROM THE MID 40S TO THE LOWER
50S...ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1245 PM EST...LIGHT RAIN HAS DEVELOPED AT KALB...WHILE
REMAINING GENERALLY NORTH OF KPOU...AND THUS FAR...SOUTH OF KGFL.
HOWEVER...THE RAIN SHOULD EXPAND NORTH AND EAST DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN AFFECTING KALB AND
KGFL THROUGH SUNSET. DESPITE THIS LIGHT RAIN...EXPECT MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS...POSSIBLY BECOMING MVFR FOR CIGS TOWARD SUNSET. AT
KPOU...OTHER THAN PERHAPS A FEW SPRINKLES...EXPECT MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNSET.
FOR TONIGHT...THE RAIN SHOULD BECOME MORE SHOWERY AT KALB AND
KGFL...AS A WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. THEN...AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NW...EXPECT A BAND OF SHOWERS TO GRADUALLY
SETTLE SOUTHEAST ACROSS KGFL AND KALB ONCE AGAIN LATER THIS
EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A RUMBLE OF THUNDER COULD BE
EMBEDDED WITHIN THESE SHOWERS...BUT DUE TO OVERALL LOW
PROBABILITY...HAVE KEPT OUT ANY MENTION AT THIS TIME. EXPECT MVFR
TO ISOLATED IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.
THE SHOWERS SHOULD THEN SETTLE SOUTHWARD AFTER MIDNIGHT...TAPERING
OFF AT KGFL AND KALB BEFORE SUNRISE. AT KPOU...LITTLE IF ANY RAIN
IS EXPECTED UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING...WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AS THE
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. ALL AREAS SHOULD THEN TREND INTO VFR BY
MID TO LATE MORNING TUE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...IFR/MVFR IMPROVING TO VFR BY AFTERNOON.
TUE NGT...SUB-VFR CIG...LIKELY -SHRA.
WED-WED NGT...VFR/MVFR...CHC -SHRA.
THU...VFR...BREEZY.
FRI-SAT...VFR...NO SIG WX.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK.
UP TO A HALF INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
THIS RAIN MIGHT CAUSE SOME MINOR INCREASES IN STREAMFLOWS...BUT
MOST OF IT WILL JUST SOAK INTO THE GROUND.
MORE RAINFALL MAY OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...BUT AGAIN IT LOOKS LIKE
AMOUNTS SHOULD NOT BE MUCH MORE THAN A HALF INCH...IF THAT MUCH.
AGAIN THIS RAIN WILL MOSTLY JUST SOAK INTO THE GROUND...AND NOT
HAVE MUCH EFFECT ON THE RIVERS AND STREAMS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...11
NEAR TERM...KL/11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...RCK
AVIATION...KL/RCK
HYDROLOGY...RCK/11
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
1053 AM EST MON NOV 14 2011
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION THIS MORNING AND THROUGH OUR REGION BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL THEN STALL OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION
AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG IT ON WEDNESDAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR MUCH
OF THE TIME THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1050 AM EST...CLOUDS HAVE INCREASED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION...WITH PATCHY LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
CAPITAL REGION...EXTENDING SOUTH AND WEST INTO THE SCHOHARIE
VALLEY AND CATSKILLS. INCREASING MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD
SUPPORT A GENERAL EXPANSION OF LIGHT RAIN THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
CAPITAL REGION...AND EVENTUALLY AREAS N OF THE MOHAWK RIVER BY
EARLY/MID AFTERNOON...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST HRRR AND
RUC13. THE LOW LEVELS REMAIN SOMEWHAT DRY...ESP IN THE
VALLEYS...WHERE LATEST DEWPOINTS REMAINED IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
SO...ONCE RAIN DEVELOPS...WET BULB COOLING SHOULD
COMMENCE...LIMITING MUCH FURTHER RISE IN TEMPS. SO...HAVE TWEAKED
MAX TEMPS DOWNWARD BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES...ALTHOUGH NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE REGION MAY STILL EXPERIENCE A BIT MORE WARMING AS
THE RAIN HOLDS OFF A BIT. PLACES SUCH AS BENNINGTON VT WILL LIKELY
REACH THE MID 60S BEFORE COOLING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
WE HAVE ALSO BOOSTED WINDS A BIT OVER THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS WITHIN
THE IMMEDIATE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...WHERE SOME GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH
ARE POSSIBLE...ESP AS THE RAIN BEGINS...AND STRONG EVAPORATIONAL
COOLING HELPS DRAG STRONGER WINDS FROM ALOFT DOWNWARD.
OTHERWISE...JUST SOME MODIFICATIONS TO HOURLY TEMPS/DEWPOINTS
BASED ON RECENT OBS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
AS OF 630 AM...PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND VERY MILD TEMPS
PREVAILED ACROSS THE FA WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE 40S TO MID
50S. HAVE ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS TO REFLECT INCREASING CLOUDS THIS
MORNING AND HAVE BACKED OFF TIMING OF ONSET OF SHOWERS BY SEVERAL
HOURS AS MUCH OF LEADING EDGE OF PCPN ON MOSAIC RADAR LOOP
CURRENTLY VIRGA WITH PCPN REACHING THE GROUND BACK ACROSS WESTERN PA.
AS OF 4 AM...CLOUDY SKIES AND MILD TEMPS PREVAILED ACROSS THE FA
WITH READINGS GENERALLY IN THE 40S AND 50S. MUCH OF THE FA WAS DRY
EXCEPT FOR A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.
THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT IN TERMS OF THE H5
TROF AXIS ACRS THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY TODAY AND THE LOW
PRESSURE CENTER AT THE SURFACE MOVING INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES EXIST IN THE
QPF FIELDS ESPECIALLY CONCERNING THE AREA OF SHOWERS LIFTING EAST
NORTHEAST FROM WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE GFS
AND TO A LESSER DEGREE THE NAM HAVE QPF AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER TO A
HALF INCH ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA WITH THESE SHOWERS
WHILE THE ECMWF AND THE GGEM HAVE THE SHOWERS WEAKENING AS THEY
MOVE INTO THE FA WITH THE HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS DURING THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FA AHEAD OF THE LOW
MOVING INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH A
COMPROMISE SOLUTION ON QPF AND MAINLY CHANCE POPS AS MUCH OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE SCATTERED IN NATURE BY THE TIME IT
REACHES FA STARTING LATER THIS MORNING. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MILD TODAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S AS H8
TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE +8 TO +9 C RANGE. IT WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO
BE WINDY AS PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS FAIRLY STRONG AHEAD OF
APPROACHING LOW. GENERALLY EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS 1O TO 20 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES WILL RESULT IN THE BULK OF THE PCPN FALLING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA THIS EVENING. THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY IMPROVING CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT
WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE FA IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW AND BE
POSITIONED JUST SOUTH OF THE FA BY TUESDAY MORNING. FOR TONIGHT
HAVE PLACED HIGHEST POPS NORTH AND WEST THIS EVENING AND LOWEST
POPS SOUTH AND EAST. ALSO EXPECT THAT THERE MAY BE A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER THIS EVENING AND HAVE PLACED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
GRIDS AS SHOWALTER INDICES FALL TO JUST BELOW ZERO ALONG WITH ML
MUCAPES OF SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG. EXPECT QPF AMOUNTS THROUGH
TONIGHT TO GENERALLY BE BETWEEN A QUARTER AND A HALF INCH IN MOST
PLACES WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS NORTHWEST AND LOWEST AMOUNTS
SOUTHEAST. LOWS OVERNIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 40S TO
LOWER 50S.
TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY AT THIS POINT AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE FA IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION.
EXPECT THAT THERE WILL BE MORE SUN NORTH AND LESS SUN SOUTH WITH
HIGHS STILL RELATIVELY MILD IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.
FOR THE PERIOD FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE
MODELS DIVERGE AGAIN IN SOLUTIONS REGARDING A WAVE OR WAVES OF
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED
TO OUR SOUTH. THE NAM IS MUCH QUICKER AND HAS MUCH LESS OF AN
IMPACT ON THE FA THAN THE OTHER MODELS REGARDING THIS
FEATURE...WHILE THE GGEM AND GFS ARE SIMILAR WITH A MAINLY WED EVENT
AND THE ECMWF IS CONSIDERABLY SLOWER WITH A FARTHER NORTH AND
WEST EXTENT OF THE PCPN SHIELD AND A LATER ARRIVAL AND DEPARTURE
TIME OF THE PCPN MAINLY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING. WILL COMPROMISE ON THESE LATER TWO SOLUTIONS AND HAVE
HIGHEST POPS SOUTHEAST AND LOWEST POPS NORTHWEST FROM LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT ANY
LINGERING PCPN ACROSS SRN VT AND THE NRN BERKS WED EVENING MAY END
AS A LITTLE BIT OF SNOW WITH H8 TEMPS DROPPING TO -2 TO -4 C BY
06Z THU. THE SECOND HALF OF WED NIGHT LOOKS DRY IN THE WAKE OF
DEPARTING LOW. EXPECT LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S...HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S AND LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S. TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS FROM
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH NORTHWEST TO AROUND HALF AN INCH SOUTHEAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT THE START OF THIS PERIOD...AN UPPER TROF WILL APPROACH THE
REGION AND PASS THROUGH FAIRLY QUICKLY. BROAD RIDGING WILL BEGIN
TO SET IN ON FRIDAY. BRISK WEST NORTHWEST WINDS WILL USHER IN
COOLER AIR FOR THE START...ALONG WITH SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN
INSTABILITY SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE ALBANY
AREA WHERE SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT MAY ALLOW FOR SOME RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO AROUND 50 IN THE HUDSON VALLEY
SOUTH OF ALBANY...COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
OVERHEAD...WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS AND CHANCE POPS NORTH AND WEST
DIMINISHING TO NO POPS OVER MUCH OF THE HUDSON VALLEY...OR LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS AND UPPER MOHAWK VALLEY...BUT THE REST OF THE REGION
SHOULD BE DRY AND CHILLY THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM
THE LOWER 20S ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS...
CATSKILLS...SOUTHERN VERMONT...AND THE BERKSHIRES TO THE MID AND
UPPER 20S IN THE MOHAWK...HUDSON...AND HOUSATONIC VALLEYS...WITH
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS NORTH AND WEST AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
OVER THE HUDSON VALLEY AND FARTHER EAST.
THE TROUGH EXITS OUT THE REGION AS BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW AT 500 HPA
TAKES OVER FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH
WILL ALLOW FOR WARMING STARTING ON FRIDAY. WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES HIGHS FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO THE
UPPER 40S. IT WILL NOT BE AS COLD FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS FROM THE
MID 20S TO THE LOWER 30S.
ON SATURDAY...ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE PLAINS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD SOME CLOUDINESS INTO THE REGION
WITH AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT. IN SPITE OF INCREASED CLOUDINESS
SATURDAY WILL BE WARMER WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 40S TO THE LOW 50S.
AS THE WARM FRONT GETS CLOSER SATURDAY NIGHT IT WILL BRING ABOUT AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST. IT WILL BE MILDER ON
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 30S. SUNDAY WILL BE MOSTLY
CLOUDY WITH A POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST
OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. HIGHS WILL BE FROM THE MID 40S TO THE LOWER
50S...ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
00Z TUESDAY...BUT CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO DETERIORATE STARTING
THIS EVENING.
THERE WERE SOME HIGH AND MIDLEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE REGION EARLY THIS
MONDAY MORNING. A LOW CENTER MOVING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY UP THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL SPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS INTO THE SOUTHERN
PART OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...AND FARTHER NORTH STARTING THIS
EVENING.
DURING THE DAY TODAY...CIGS WILL GENERALLY BE BROKEN TO OVERCAST
5000 TO 10000 FT...UNTIL MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...AFTER WHICH THEY
WILL LOWER TO AROUND 3500 FT. THE MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE PLACEMENT OR TIMING OF PRECIP. WITH WEAK FORCING IN
PLACE...ANY SHOWERS WILL SCATTERED AND RATHER LIGHT IN INTENSITY.
FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH A VCSH IN THE TAFS DURING MUCH OF THE
DAY...WITH PRECIP MORE DEFINITE DURING THE MID AFTERNOON TO THE
SOUTH AND NOT UNTIL THE LATE AFTERNOON FROM THE ALBANY AREA NORTH.
FOR THE TIME BEING...LOOKS LIKE VFR SHOULD PREDOMINATE...WITH
PERHAPS SOME AREAS OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH
AND WEST OF THE ALBANY AREA...EARLY AFTERNOON SOUTH OF THE ALBANY
AREA AND LATE AFTERNOON FARTHER NORTH.
CONDITIONS WILL BE MVFR THIS EVENING DUE TO LOW CIGS ALONG WITH
VISIBILITY 4 TO 5 MILES IN RAIN AND MIST...WITH AREAS OF IFR
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. CIGS ARE LIKELY TO DETERIORATE TO IFR
AFTER MIDNIGHT.
WINDS WERE CALM AT KPOU AND SOUTHERLY AT KALB AND KGFL. THEY
WILL CONTINUE SOUTHERLY 5 TO 10 KNOTS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
WITH SOMEWHAT HIGHER SPEEDS AT KALB.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...IFR/MVFR IMPROVING TO VFR.
TUE NGT...SUB-VFR CIG...LIKELY -SHRA.
WED-WED NGT...VFR/MVFR...CHC -SHRA.
THU...VFR...BREEZY.
FRI...VFR...NO SIG WX.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK.
UP TO A HALF INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
THIS RAIN MIGHT CAUSE SOME MINOR INCREASES IN STREAMFLOWS...BUT
MOST OF IT WILL JUST SOAK INTO THE GROUND.
MORE RAINFALL MAY OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...BUT AGAIN IT LOOKS LIKE
AMOUNTS SHOULD NOT BE MUCH MORE THAN A HALF INCH...IF THAT MUCH.
AGAIN THIS RAIN WILL MOSTLY JUST SOAK INTO THE GROUND...AND NOT
HAVE MUCH EFFECT ON THE RIVERS AND STREAMS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...11
NEAR TERM...KL/11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...RCK
AVIATION...RCK
HYDROLOGY...RCK/11
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
159 AM EST MON NOV 14 2011
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE EASTWARD INTO MONDAY. A COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST WILL
APPROACH THE REGION TUESDAY BRINGING AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL BY MID- WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER AND COOLER AIR
FOR THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
MAINLY HIGH AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
LIGHT WINDS...VARIABLE CLOUDINESS AND SOME INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL HELP TO KEEP MODERATING OVERNIGHT LOWS. EXPECT
READINGS IN THE UPPER 40S BY MORNING...WITH SOME PATCHY FOG BEING
POSSIBLE TOWARDS SUNRISE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE BEGINNING ON MONDAY. ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING WARMER AND
MOISTURE AIR BACK INTO THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. EVEN SO...DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. WITH THE WARMING TREND...HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL REACH INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 70S...THEN INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S TUESDAY.
LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S.
CHANGES WILL BEGIN LATER IN THE DAY TUESDAY IN REGARDS TO POP
POTENTIAL. A COLD FRONT OFF TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION WILL BE
STRENGTHENING AND MOVING TOWARDS THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY
TUESDAY. MUCH OF THE DAY TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY...BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO GO WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAINFALL LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON TUESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT
MOVING TOWARDS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND GRADUALLY PUSHING EAST
OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
BEGINNING OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT AND LINGERING WEDNESDAY. ONLY
MARGINAL INSTABILITY WITH THE SYSTEM WEDNESDAY. THE SYSTEM EXITS
THE AREA BY THURSDAY AS A STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER
IN THE SOUTHEAST. SIGNIFICANT COOLING OF HIGH TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER THE
AREA THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SHOW A TONGUE OF SURFACE MOISTURE ADVECTING
NORTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA INTO WEST CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA.
HOWEVER FLOW AT THE SURFACE CONTINUES TO BE LIGHT SO SURFACE
MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE SLOWER THAN THAT JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE
AS A LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS...BUT PER VAD WIND PROFILES...SEEMS
TO STEER THE BEST MOISTURE TO OUR WEST. HOWEVER...ELECTED TO KEEP
CURRENT FORECAST INTACT FOR NOW AS EVIDENCE IS STILL TOO COMPELLING
TO REMOVE THE CHANCE OF IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITY AT THIS
TIME. FOLLOWED A COMBINATION OF THE GFS/NAM AND RUC IN MAKING THE
FORECAST.
CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
LONGWAVE RIDGE WILL REBUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TUESDAY...KEEPING PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT...WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR VISIBILITY/
CEILINGS TUESDAY MORNING.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE AREA
MAY BRING WIDESPREAD MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...07
NEAR TERM...07
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...12
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
1246 AM EST MON NOV 14 2011
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE EASTWARD INTO MONDAY. A COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST WILL
APPROACH THE REGION TUESDAY BRINGING AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL BY MID- WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER AND COOLER AIR
FOR THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
MAINLY HIGH AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
EVENING. LIGHT WINDS...VARIABLE CLOUDINESS AND SOME INCREASE IN
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HELP TO KEEP MODERATING OVERNIGHT LOWS.
EXPECT READINGS IN THE UPPER 40S BY MORNING...WITH SOME PATCHY FOG
BEING POSSIBLE TOWARDS SUNRISE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE BEGINNING ON MONDAY. ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING WARMER AND
MOISTURE AIR BACK INTO THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. EVEN SO...DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. WITH THE WARMING TREND...HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL REACH INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 70S...THEN INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S TUESDAY.
LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S.
CHANGES WILL BEGIN LATER IN THE DAY TUESDAY IN REGARDS TO POP
POTENTIAL. A COLD FRONT OFF TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION WILL BE
STRENGTHENING AND MOVING TOWARDS THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY
TUESDAY. MUCH OF THE DAY TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY...BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO GO WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAINFALL LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON TUESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT
MOVING TOWARDS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND GRADUALLY PUSHING EAST
OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
BEGINNING OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT AND LINGERING WEDNESDAY. ONLY
MARGINAL INSTABILITY WITH THE SYSTEM WEDNESDAY. THE SYSTEM EXITS
THE AREA BY THURSDAY AS A STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER
IN THE SOUTHEAST. SIGNIFICANT COOLING OF HIGH TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER THE
AREA THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SHOW A TONGUE OF SURFACE MOISTURE ADVECTING
NORTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA INTO WEST CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA.
HOWEVER FLOW AT THE SURFACE CONTINUES TO BE LIGHT SO SURFACE
MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE SLOWER THAN THAT JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE
AS A LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS...BUT PER VAD WIND PROFILES...SEEMS
TO STEER THE BEST MOISTURE TO OUR WEST. HOWEVER...ELECTED TO KEEP
CURRENT FORECAST INTACT FOR NOW AS EVIDENCE IS STILL TOO COMPELLING
TO REMOVE THE CHANCE OF IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITY AT THIS
TIME. FOLLOWED A COMBINATION OF THE GFS/NAM AND RUC IN MAKING THE
FORECAST.
CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
LONGWAVE RIDGE WILL REBUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TUESDAY...KEEPING PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT...WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR VISIBILITY/
CEILINGS TUESDAY MORNING.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE AREA
MAY BRING WIDESPREAD MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1016 PM EST TUE NOV 15 2011
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE FLUCTUATING QUITE A BIT OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. FIRST...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA TONIGHT BRINGING MUCH COLDER AIR BEHIND IT. HIGHS WILL
ONLY TOP OFF IN THE 40S THE NEXT FEW DAYS DESPITE THE DRY
CONDITIONS. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS A RATHER STRONG SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA. FURTHER OUT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RE-ESTABLISH
ITSELF OVER CENTRAL INDIANA LATE MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...
SO FAR CURRENT FORECAST SEEMS TO BE ON TRACK. PRESENTLY RAIN
OCCURRING SOUTH OF OHIO RIVER...BUT RADAR LOOPS INDICATE THAT IT HAS
PUSHED NORTH INTO MISSOURI BOOTHEEL AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVING ACROSS ARKANSAS AND TENNESSEE. RUC BRINGS PRECIPITATION
ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY...BUT NOTHING
MUCH NORTH OF OUR SOUTHERN ROW OF COUNTIES.
I HAVE ADJUSTED RAIN AREA SLIGHTLY SOUTH OVERNIGHT...BUT NOT ENOUGH
TO UPDATE FORECAST PRODUCTS. ONE MINOR CHANGE IN GRIDS WILL BE TO
SLOW DOWN FALL OF TEMPERATURES A LITTLE OVERNIGHT UNTIL SECONDARY
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. BUT EVEN THERE THE OVERNIGHT
LOWS STILL SEEM TO BE ON TRACK WITH MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS OUR
NORTHWEST AND LOWER TO MID 40S SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TOMORROW THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM IS TEMPS.
MUCH COOLER TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TOMORROW IN THE
WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. HIGHS WILL ONLY TOP OFF IN THE UPPER
40S/LOWER 50S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...AND MID 40S TO THE
NORTH. MODELS SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE COLD
ADVECTION...SO WENT WITH ALLBLEND. TOMORROW NIGHT...TRENDED ON THE
WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE AS CLOUDS BUILD INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF A
BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW. GUIDANCE IS SHOWING LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER
20S...SO WENT WITH UPPER 20S/LOW 30S. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW
SINCE 850MB TEMPS ARE HINTING AT A COOLING TREND.
THURSDAY...WENT ABOVE GUIDANCE SINCE WINDS WILL BE BACKING TO THE
WEST THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY. THIS MAY BE TOO OPTIMISTIC
THOUGH...SO CONFIDENCE IS A BIT LOW. FOR NOW...HAVE HIGHS OF LOW
TO MID 40S OVER THE NORTH...AND UPPER 40S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA. THURSDAY NIGHT...JUST WENT WITH A
BLEND OF UPPER 20S/LOW 30S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS ARE HAVING TIMING DIFFICULTIES WITH A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM
THAT IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT CENTRAL INDIANA THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE 12Z ECMWF AND 12Z GEM ARE BOTH QUITE A BIT FASTER
THAN THE 12Z GFS. THE 12Z GFS ESEMBLE MEANS WERE IN BETWEEN...BUT
THE ESEMBLES HAD LARGE STANDARD DEVIATIONS. SO...AT THIS POINT...A
NON-GFS BLEND LOOKS GOOD. HAD TO MAKE SEVERAL CHANGES TO THE
INITIALIZATION EXTENDED REGARDING TIMING OF THE RAIN. DROPPED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WELL TO THE
WEST ACROSS THE ROCKIES. OTHERWISE...THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE
ACROSS SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS SUGGEST SYSTEM STRONG ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS SHOWERS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE 12Z ECMWF ALSO WAS SHOWING A WAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST ALONG
THE OSCILLATING FRONT NEAR THE OHIO RIVER ON MONDAY WHICH JUSTIFIES
KEEPING POPS IN THROUGH THEN. FINALLY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD DRY THINGS OUT BY
TUESDAY AND ALLOW FOR MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE 40S FOR
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN CONTRAST TO HIGHS IN THE 50S AND POSSIBLY 60S
SATURDAY IN THE RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AFTER COORDINATING
WITH ADJACENT OFFICES...PULLED THE INITIALIZATION EXTENDED POPS.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 16/03Z IND TAF UPDATE/...
MINOR TWEAKS TO TIMING AND LOWERED CEILINGS TO SCT/TEMPO BKN012.
REMAINDER OF FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
SOME IMPROVEMENT OF CEILINGS TO LOW VFR HAS OCCURRED EARLY THIS
EVENING...BUT SREF PROBABILITIES...FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND UPSTREAM
OBS SUGGEST SOME ADDITIONAL MVFR WILL BUILD IN DURING THE FIRST 4-5
HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD. BMG WILL EXPERIENCE MVFR MOST OF THE NIGHT
DUE TO ITS PROXIMITY TO MOISTURE AND BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH.
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH OVERNIGHT AND ALLOW
CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE MARKEDLY...FIRST AT LAF...THEN IND/HUF...AND
FINALLY BMG IN THE MORNING.
SHOWER ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE REMAINING WELL TO OUR SOUTH...AND
WHILE A SPRINKLE CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY AT BMG...THIS
APPEARS UNLIKELY AND NO MENTION WILL BE MADE.
WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY BY TOMORROW MORNING...WITH GUSTS IN THE
HIGH TEENS POSSIBLE FROM MID MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....50
AVIATION...NIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
955 PM EST TUE NOV 15 2011
.UPDATE...
NEAR TERM FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE FLUCTUATING QUITE A BIT OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. FIRST...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA TONIGHT BRINGING MUCH COLDER AIR BEHIND IT. HIGHS WILL
ONLY TOP OFF IN THE 40S THE NEXT FEW DAYS DESPITE THE DRY
CONDITIONS. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS A RATHER STRONG SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA. FURTHER OUT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RE-ESTABLISH
ITSELF OVER CENTRAL INDIANA LATE MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...
SO FAR CURRENT FORECAST SEEMS TO BE ON TRACK. PRESENTLY RAIN
OCCURRING SOUTH OF OHIO RIVER...BUT RADAR LOOPS INDICATE THAT IT HAS
PUSHED NORTH INTO MISSOURI BOOTHEEL AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVING ACROSS ARKANSAS AND TENNESSEE. RUC BRINGS PRECIPITATION
ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY...BUT NOTHING
MUCH NORTH OF OUR SOUTHERN ROW OF COUNTIES.
I HAVE ADJUSTED RAIN AREA SLIGHTLY SOUTH OVERNIGHT...BUT NOT ENOUGH
TO UPDATE FORECAST PRODUCTS. ONE MINOR CHANGE IN GRIDS WILL BE TO
SLOW DOWN FALL OF TEMPERATURES A LITTLE OVERNIGHT UNTIL SECONDARY
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. BUT EVEN THERE THE OVERNIGHT
LOWS STILL SEEM TO BE ON TRACK WITH MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS OUR
NORTHWEST AND LOWER TO MID 40S SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TOMORROW THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM IS TEMPS.
MUCH COOLER TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TOMORROW IN THE
WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. HIGHS WILL ONLY TOP OFF IN THE UPPER
40S/LOWER 50S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...AND MID 40S TO THE
NORTH. MODELS SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE COLD
ADVECTION...SO WENT WITH ALLBLEND. TOMORROW NIGHT...TRENDED ON THE
WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE AS CLOUDS BUILD INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF A
BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW. GUIDANCE IS SHOWING LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER
20S...SO WENT WITH UPPER 20S/LOW 30S. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW
SINCE 850MB TEMPS ARE HINTING AT A COOLING TREND.
THURSDAY...WENT ABOVE GUIDANCE SINCE WINDS WILL BE BACKING TO THE
WEST THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY. THIS MAY BE TOO OPTIMISTIC
THOUGH...SO CONFIDENCE IS A BIT LOW. FOR NOW...HAVE HIGHS OF LOW
TO MID 40S OVER THE NORTH...AND UPPER 40S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA. THURSDAY NIGHT...JUST WENT WITH A
BLEND OF UPPER 20S/LOW 30S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS ARE HAVING TIMING DIFFICULTIES WITH A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM
THAT IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT CENTRAL INDIANA THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE 12Z ECMWF AND 12Z GEM ARE BOTH QUITE A BIT FASTER
THAN THE 12Z GFS. THE 12Z GFS ESEMBLE MEANS WERE IN BETWEEN...BUT
THE ESEMBLES HAD LARGE STANDARD DEVIATIONS. SO...AT THIS POINT...A
NON-GFS BLEND LOOKS GOOD. HAD TO MAKE SEVERAL CHANGES TO THE
INITIALIZATION EXTENDED REGARDING TIMING OF THE RAIN. DROPPED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WELL TO THE
WEST ACROSS THE ROCKIES. OTHERWISE...THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE
ACROSS SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS SUGGEST SYSTEM STRONG ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS SHOWERS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE 12Z ECMWF ALSO WAS SHOWING A WAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST ALONG
THE OSCILLATING FRONT NEAR THE OHIO RIVER ON MONDAY WHICH JUSTIFIES
KEEPING POPS IN THROUGH THEN. FINALLY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD DRY THINGS OUT BY
TUESDAY AND ALLOW FOR MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE 40S FOR
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN CONTRAST TO HIGHS IN THE 50S AND POSSIBLY 60S
SATURDAY IN THE RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AFTER COORDINATING
WITH ADJACENT OFFICES...PULLED THE INITIALIZATION EXTENDED POPS.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 16/00Z TAFS/...
SOME IMPROVEMENT OF CEILINGS TO LOW VFR HAS OCCURRED EARLY THIS
EVENING...BUT SREF PROBABILITIES...FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND UPSTREAM
OBS SUGGEST SOME ADDITIONAL MVFR WILL BUILD IN DURING THE FIRST 4-5
HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD. BMG WILL EXPERIENCE MVFR MOST OF THE NIGHT
DUE TO ITS PROXIMITY TO MOISTURE AND BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH.
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH OVERNIGHT AND ALLOW
CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE MARKEDLY...FIRST AT LAF...THEN IND/HUF...AND
FINALLY BMG IN THE MORNING.
SHOWER ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE REMAINING WELL TO OUR SOUTH...AND
WHILE A SPRINKLE CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY AT BMG...THIS
APPEARS UNLIKELY AND NO MENTION WILL BE MADE.
WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY BY TOMORROW MORNING...WITH GUSTS IN THE
HIGH TEENS POSSIBLE FROM MID MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....50
AVIATION...NIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
553 PM EST MON NOV 14 2011
.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS...LINGERING SHOWERS AFFECTING KFWA SHOULD EXIT BEFORE 00Z
WITH LOW LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTION AFFECTING NORTHERN INDIANA
TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF PASSING SFC WAVE. WEAK NORTH WINDS BEHIND
THIS TROUGH SHOULD EVENTUALLY BECOME SOUTHERLY LATER THIS EVENING
AS SFC TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE TONIGHT.
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS APPROACHING TROUGH
ON TUESDAY...WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS
POSSIBLE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT KSBN WHERE LOW
LEVEL HEIGHT GRADIENT WILL BE STRONGER. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH JUST SOME LOW COVERAGE CIRRUS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 425 PM EST MON NOV 14 2011/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
SEVERE POTENTIAL THROUGH EARLY EVENING WILL BE THE IMMEDIATE SHORT
TERM CONCERN...FOLLOWED BY TRANSITION TO COLDER TEMPERATURES AND
LAKE EFFECT PRECIP POTENTIAL FOR WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY.
SHORT WAVE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS HAS RAPIDLY TRACKED INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SFC WAVE RIDING
ALONG NORTHWARD MOVING WARM FRONT COMBINED WITH INCREASED
MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING HAS ALLOWED FOR SOLID LINE OF CONVECTION
TO DEVELOP ALONG A STRONG LOW LEVEL FRONTAL CONVERGENCE ZONE.
EXTREME DEEP LAYER SHEAR NOTED WITH 150 KNOT JET CORE PROGRESSING
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES...WITH 0 TO 6 KM DEEP LAYER SHEAR
VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 80 TO 100 KNOTS. A TIGHT INSTABILITY
GRADIENT IS ACCOMPANYING THE WARM FRONT WITH 20Z SPC RUC ANALYSIS
INDICATING BETWEEN 500-700 J/KG OF SFC BASED CAPE ACROSS SOUTHERN
THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE WARM FRONT HAS LIKELY REACHED ITS
FAR NORTHERN EXTENT BASED ON POSITIONING OF AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE
WAVE. SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS CAN BE APPROXIMATELY DELINEATED BY CURRENT POSITIONING OF SHARP
FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AXIS. COMBINATION OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY IS
MORE THAN AMPLE FOR CONTINUED LOW TOP SUPERCELLULAR FEATURES
EMBEDDED ALONG THE LINE...WITH PERIODIC BOWING SEGMENTS GIVEN THE
VERY STRONG FLOW ALOFT. THREAT OF SEVERE SHOULD SHIFT INTO EXTREME
SOUTHEAST AREAS OVER NEXT HOUR OR TWO...BEFORE EXITING THE
FORECAST AREA TOWARD 00Z.
COLD ADVECTION BEHIND SURFACE WAVE TONIGHT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
PARTICULARLY STRONG DUE TO MAINTENANCE OF LONG WAVE TROUGHING
ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL CONUS. APPROACH OF NEXT SFC TROUGH FROM THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS WILL ALLOW LOW LEVEL WINDS TO BACK AGAIN
LATE TONIGHT AND ON TUESDAY...WITH STRONG WARM ADVECTION
DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN DURING THE DAY. SOME LIMITED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURN IS POSSIBLE IN ADVANCE OF THIS WAVE TUESDAY NIGHT
ACROSS MAINLY FAR SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA. IN
ADDITION...APPROACHING LARGER SCALE UPPER TROUGH MAY ACT TO
ENHANCE SOME WEAK TO MODERATE MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. GIVEN THESE
FACTORS...DID ADD SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS EXTREME
SOUTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH GREATER CHANCES OF SHOWERS
REMAINING SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE UPPER
50S TO AROUND 60 EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH JUST SOME
PASSING MID CLOUDS EXPECTED.
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG LOW LEVEL
COLD ADVECTION ON WEDNESDAY. MODIFIED GFS BUFFER SOUNDINGS FOR
SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN CONDITIONS SUGGEST SUFFICIENT LAKE INDUCED
INSTABILITY FOR SCT SNOW SHOWER/FLURRY CHANCES. WILL KEEP PRECIP
TYPE AS SNOW SHOWERS FOR MAINLY EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN LOWER
MICHIGAN DUE TO A FAIRLY DRY SUBCLOUD LAYER. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FURTHER INLAND ON WEDNESDAY EVENING ACROSS MUCH
OF SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AS MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES. THE THERMAL ROLLER COASTER RIDE WILL CONTINUE BY
THE END OF THE WEEK AS A STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL
BRING LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGING BACK INTO THE REGION AND A
MODERATING TEMPERATURE TREND. THE NEXT STRONG EASTERN PACIFIC JET
WILL DIG INTO WESTERN CONUS FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR LONGWAVE
AMPLIFICATION...WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY SUPPORT RAIN SHOWER CHANCES
FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEKEND AS THIS TROUGH LIFTS ACROSS NORTHERN TIER
OF CONUS.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...MARSILI
AVIATION...MARSILI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
425 PM EST MON NOV 14 2011
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
SEVERE POTENTIAL THROUGH EARLY EVENING WILL BE THE IMMEDIATE SHORT
TERM CONCERN...FOLLOWED BY TRANSITION TO COLDER TEMPERATURES AND
LAKE EFFECT PRECIP POTENTIAL FOR WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY.
SHORT WAVE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS HAS RAPIDLY TRACKED INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SFC WAVE RIDING
ALONG NORTHWARD MOVING WARM FRONT COMBINED WITH INCREASED
MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING HAS ALLOWED FOR SOLID LINE OF CONVECTION
TO DEVELOP ALONG A STRONG LOW LEVEL FRONTAL CONVERGENCE ZONE.
EXTREME DEEP LAYER SHEAR NOTED WITH 150 KNOT JET CORE PROGRESSING
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES...WITH 0 TO 6 KM DEEP LAYER SHEAR
VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 80 TO 100 KNOTS. A TIGHT INSTABILITY
GRADIENT IS ACCOMPANYING THE WARM FRONT WITH 20Z SPC RUC ANALYSIS
INDICATING BETWEEN 500-700 J/KG OF SFC BASED CAPE ACROSS SOUTHERN
THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE WARM FRONT HAS LIKELY REACHED ITS
FAR NORTHERN EXTENT BASED ON POSITIONING OF AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE
WAVE. SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS CAN BE APPROXIMATELY DELINEATED BY CURRENT POSITIONING OF SHARP
FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AXIS. COMBINATION OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY IS
MORE THAN AMPLE FOR CONTINUED LOW TOP SUPERCELLULAR FEATURES
EMBEDDED ALONG THE LINE...WITH PERIODIC BOWING SEGMENTS GIVEN THE
VERY STRONG FLOW ALOFT. THREAT OF SEVERE SHOULD SHIFT INTO EXTREME
SOUTHEAST AREAS OVER NEXT HOUR OR TWO...BEFORE EXITING THE
FORECAST AREA TOWARD 00Z.
COLD ADVECTION BEHIND SURFACE WAVE TONIGHT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
PARTICULARLY STRONG DUE TO MAINTENANCE OF LONG WAVE TROUGHING
ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL CONUS. APPROACH OF NEXT SFC TROUGH FROM THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS WILL ALLOW LOW LEVEL WINDS TO BACK AGAIN
LATE TONIGHT AND ON TUESDAY...WITH STRONG WARM ADVECTION
DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN DURING THE DAY. SOME LIMITED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURN IS POSSIBLE IN ADVANCE OF THIS WAVE TUESDAY NIGHT
ACROSS MAINLY FAR SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA. IN
ADDITION...APPROACHING LARGER SCALE UPPER TROUGH MAY ACT TO
ENHANCE SOME WEAK TO MODERATE MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. GIVEN THESE
FACTORS...DID ADD SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS EXTREME
SOUTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH GREATER CHANCES OF SHOWERS
REMAINING SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE UPPER
50S TO AROUND 60 EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH JUST SOME
PASSING MID CLOUDS EXPECTED.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG LOW LEVEL
COLD ADVECTION ON WEDNESDAY. MODIFIED GFS BUFFER SOUNDINGS FOR
SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN CONDITIONS SUGGEST SUFFICIENT LAKE INDUCED
INSTABILITY FOR SCT SNOW SHOWER/FLURRY CHANCES. WILL KEEP PRECIP
TYPE AS SNOW SHOWERS FOR MAINLY EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN LOWER
MICHIGAN DUE TO A FAIRLY DRY SUBCLOUD LAYER. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FURTHER INLAND ON WEDNESDAY EVENING ACROSS MUCH
OF SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AS MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES. THE THERMAL ROLLER COASTER RIDE WILL CONTINUE BY
THE END OF THE WEEK AS A STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL
BRING LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGING BACK INTO THE REGION AND A
MODERATING TEMPERATURE TREND. THE NEXT STRONG EASTERN PACIFIC JET
WILL DIG INTO WESTERN CONUS FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR LONGWAVE
AMPLIFICATION...WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY SUPPORT RAIN SHOWER CHANCES
FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEKEND AS THIS TROUGH LIFTS ACROSS NORTHERN TIER
OF CONUS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 126 PM EST MON NOV 14 2011/
AVIATION...
18Z TAFS...WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST TO THE SOUTH OF TERMINALS
WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON. LATEST SFC OBSERVATIONS INDICATING WARM FRONT HAS
REACHED KFWA WITH WINDS NOW SOUTHERLY AND GUSTING TO AROUND 20
KNOTS. THIS SHARP FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL INTERACT WITH AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON. THE PRIMARY
INSTABILITY AXIS WILL SET UP FROM EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO
NORTHEAST INDIANA WITH KFWA MARKING THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THIS
GREATER INSTABILITY. WHILE THUNDER MAY BE MORE ISOLD OR SCT AT
KSBN...BEST POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER AT KSBN SHOULD BE OVER THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO. WITH STRONG BACKGROUND WIND SHEAR AND PLACEMENT OF
INSTABILITY...STORMS WILL LIKELY BE STRONG/SEVERE AND DID
INDICATE WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 50 KNOTS IN TEMPO TSRA GROUP FOR FWA.
THREAT OF PRECIP SHOULD END AT EARLY THIS EVENING AS COLD FRONT
TRACKS EASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA. CONFIDENCE IN WINDS DIMINISHES
LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH UNCERTAINTY AS TO EXACT PLACEMENT OF WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...BUT WINDS SHOULD EVENTUALLY FAVOR SOUTHWEST
LATER TONIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...MARSILI
AVIATION...MARSILI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS PADUCAH KY
1214 PM CST MON NOV 14 2011
.UPDATE...
SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/ FORECAST UPDATE AND 18Z MONDAY ROUTINE
TAF ISSUANCE DISCUSSION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
THE CURRENT SEVERE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY CLOSELY MATCHES THE 4KM
NAM-WRF NMM REFLECTIVITY FIELDS...AS OF 18Z MONDAY. AT THIS
TIME...ADJUSTED POP/WEATHER FIELDS TO REFLECT HIGHER CHANCES FOR
SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND
INTO SOUTHWEST INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE SHARP SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND DOWNWARD MIXING OF LOW LEVEL WINDS...A
MENTION OF GUSTY WINDS WAS ADDED TO THE ZONE OF THE HIGHEST POPS
OVER THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR OVER SOUTHEAST IL/SOUTHWEST
INDIANA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN WORKING SOUTHWEST INTO PARTS
OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS.
THE 13KM RUC AND 12KM NAM-WRF GUIDANCE STILL SUGGEST THAT ANY
SIGNIFICANT /SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL/ THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD
DEVELOP INTO PARTS OF SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS FROM 18Z-20Z...WORKING
ACROSS SOUTHWEST INDIANA IN THE 19Z-21Z TIME FRAME. THERE ARE ALSO
SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BECOME
FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO LIGHT UP FURTHER SOUTHWEST
INTO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI IN THE 22Z-01Z TIME FRAME...SO RAISED
POP/WEATHER ACROSS THIS AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
/PREVIOUSLY ISSUED AT 236 AM CST MON NOV 14 2011/
BIGGEST CHALLENGES WITH THIS PACKAGE CONTINUE TO BE POPS AND QPF
FROM TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN PRECIP CHANCES LATE IN
THE PERIOD.
A SURFACE LOW WILL SCOOT BY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF OUR CWA TODAY.
SIMILAR TO SUNDAY...THIS WILL CAUSE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO
TIGHTEN BETWEEN THE LOW AND AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
THE SOUTHEAST US. THE BOTTOM LINE WILL BE ANOTHER GUSTY DAY OUT OF
THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST...BUT TODAY WIND SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS.
THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE
INTO OUR CWA AND BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF
OUR CWA BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE PRESENCE OF THE FRONT COMBINED
WITH DEEPENING MOISTURE AND WEAK IMPULSES OF ENERGY ALOFT WILL
INCREASE PRECIP CHANCES TODAY INTO TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA TONIGHT. EVEN THOUGH INSTABILITY IS
MODEST AT BEST...DEEP LAYER SHEAR...ESPECIALLY EAST OF A LINE
FROM PINCKNEYVILLE ILLINOIS TO HICKMAN KENTUCKY...COULD CAUSE A
FEW STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE MAIN THREAT
BEING DAMAGING WINDS BUT ALSO WITH A REMOTE CHANCE FOR ISOLATED
TORNADOES...MAINLY OVER SOUTHWEST INDIANA.
TUESDAY AS A SHARP H5 TROF LIFTS NORTHEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...IT WILL SERVE TO LIFT THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT AND
MOISTURE FIELDS SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH...BUT THE HIGHEST POPS AND
QPF ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE
CWA. THIS SCENARIO IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
PRECIP WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
STORM SYSTEM FINALLY PULLS OFF TO THE EAST. STORM TOTAL PRECIP AT
THIS TIME IS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM .25-.50 INCHES OVER THE
NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE CWA TO 2.75-3.0 INCHES OVER THE
SOUTHEAST SECTIONS. MODELS HAVE BECOME MORE CONSISTENT HANDLING
THE TRACK...TIMING...AND DURATION OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT THE
SLIGHTEST SHIFT OF THE BOUNDARY OR ANY OF THE OTHER PRIMARY
SYNOPTIC PARAMETERS COULD SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT THE OUTCOME.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP THE REGION
DRY AND COOLER THROUGH SATURDAY. BEYOND THAT THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OUT OF THE PLAINS AND INTERACT WITH AVAILABLE
MOISTURE PRODUCING PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST
CYCLE.
&&
.AVIATION...
CURRENT 18Z TAF ISSUANCE SLIGHTLY DELAYED DUE TO SEVERE WEATHER
PREPARATIONS. THE 12Z MONDAY TAF FORECAST ISSUANCE INITIALIZED
FAIRLY WELL WITH WINDS AND CEILINGS...SO DID NOT MAKE ANY
MEASURABLE CHANGES TO ONGOING FORECAST. THE MAIN ADJUSTMENT WAS
MADE AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE WFO PAH TAF SITES THIS
EVENING AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE KCGI TAF SITE WAS DISPLACED
A LITTLE FARTHER AWAY FROM THE FRONTAL BOUNDAY...SO INTRODUCED
MVFR VISIBILITIES/CEILINGS IN THE 11Z-14Z TUESDAY TIME FRAME. THE
WORST CONDITIONS...LIFR CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL LIKELY
HOLD NEAR KPAH...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER IFR CEILINGS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AT KEVV AND KOWB. THE LOWER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL
LIKELY LAST INTO THE 18Z TUESDAY AND 00Z WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME FOR
THE NEXT FORECAST ISSUANCE.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION/NEAR TERM...SMITH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
755 PM EST TUE NOV 15 2011
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
A COLD FRONT OVER THE MIDWEST WILL SLIDE EASTWARD BRINGING SHOWERS
AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING DURING THE
WEEKEND. A SECOND FRONT WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 755 PM TUESDAY...THE ZONES BORDERING THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL
WATERS WILL HAVE A CONTINUED THREAT OF SEA FOG OCCASIONALLY MOVING
ONSHORE. THIS A RESULT OF SFC WINDS BOUNCING FROM 180-210 DEGREES.
AS WINDS BECOME THE DOMINANT 210-230 DIRECTION AFTER DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY...THE THREAT FOR SEA FOG MOVING ONSHORE WILL DIMINISH. THE
OCCURRENCE OF ISOLATED/SCATTERED -SHRA THIS EVENING WILL ALSO KEEP
THE FOG AT BAY.
THE LATEST AVAILABLE SST MAP OF THE WATERS OFF THE SE U.S. COAST
USING AVHRR DATA FOR THE 2 DAYS ENDING ON NOV 14TH...INDICATED 2
PATCHES OF NOTEWORTHY COOL SHELF WATERS OFF THE CAROLINAS...WITH 12
BETWEEN SURF CITY AND CAPE FEAR...TO NEARLY OUT TO THE FRYING PAN
SHOALS BUOY...41013. AND THE SECOND PATCH LYING ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS BETWEEN NORTH MYRTLE BEACH TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER. THIS 2ND
ONE NOT AS PRONOUNCED AS THE 1ST. WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S
TO NEAR 70 ADVECTING ACROSS THESE COOLER SHELF WATERS OVERNIGHT
INTO WED...SEA FOG WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND AFFECT THE IMMEDIATE
COAST BORDERING THE AFOREMENTIONED COLL SHELF WATER AREAS. A FEW
LOCAL SURF CAMS HAVE ALSO SHOWCASED THE EXISTENCE OF THE SEA FOG AT
TIMES.
PREVIOUS MIN FORECAST FOR TONIGHT LOOKING ON TARGET AND SEE NO
REASON TO ALTER AT THIS POINT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION................................................
AS OF 300 PM...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND
IS LARGELY RESPONSIBLE FOR ADVECTING TROPICAL AIR NORTHWARD ALONG
THE U.S. EAST COAST. THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE
BAHAMAS AND DEEP-LAYER SOUTHWEST FLOW COVERS THE CAROLINAS. IT TOOK
NEARLY 5 HOURS FOR THIS MORNING`S LOW STRATUS ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH
CAROLINA TO MIX OUT...HOWEVER THIS MOISTURE STILL EXISTS AND SHOULD
RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A NEW AND PERHAPS MORE EXPANSIVE
STRATUS DECK OVERNIGHT.
SHOWERS DEVELOPED THIS MORNING ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE GULF
STREAM AND HAVE SO FAR REMAINED 20-60 MILES FROM SHORE. A CLUSTER OF
SHOWERS HAS DEVELOPED CLOSER TO SHORE ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST AND
MAY PUSH UP TOWARD THE CAPE FEAR WATERS EARLY THIS EVENING. GFS AND
NAM MODELS SHOW SOME SYNOPTIC JET SUPPORT FOR REDEVELOPMENT OF
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS NEAR CAPE FEAR OVERNIGHT. WE ARE UNSURE IF THESE
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE AND AFFECT LAND AREAS AS WELL...SO WE
ARE MAINTAINING ONLY SMALL POPS ACROSS BRUNSWICK...NEW HANOVER AND
PENDER COUNTIES...AND HAVE EXPANDED TO THE GRAND STRAND.
LOWS TONIGHT ARE FORECAST TO RUN WELL ABOVE NORMALS GIVEN THE WARM
AIRMASS...CLOUD COVER...A 30 KT LOW LEVEL JET...AND HIGH DEWPOINTS.
LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM 62-66...WARMEST ALONG THE NC COAST WHERE
ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE STRONGEST.
NWS CHARLESTON ALERTED US TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEA FOG OVER A
PORTION OF THEIR FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. AS DEWPOINTS CONTINUE
TO RISE...CONDITIONS HAVE BECOME CONDUCIVE FOR SEA FOG ALONG THE
GRAND STRAND AND THE CAPE FEAR VICINITY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...A LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL SHIFT EASTWARD BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THIS WILL PROVIDE GOOD SYNOPTIC LIFT FOR THE REGION. AT THE
SURFACE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ACT AS THE LOW LEVEL LIFTING
MECHANISM FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. INSTABILITY IS
FORECAST BY THE MODEL TO BE VERY LOW AND THE LOW-LEVEL 0 TO 2.5 KM
BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDE REACHES ALMOST 40 KNOTS. THE LOW-LEVEL
HELICITY MAXIMUM APPEARS TO BE SHIFTING FARTHER NORTH WITH THIS
MODEL RUN AND IS RUNNING AHEAD OF THE MODEL CONVECTION...SO
CONFIDENCE ON ISOLATED TORNADOES IS NOT VERY HIGH AT THIS TIME.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH IN THE UPPER 70S INLAND
ON WEDNESDAY AND WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSAGE HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO ONLY REACH IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S ON THURSDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...COLD SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION FRI
BEFORE QUICKLY SHIFTING NORTHEAST FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. WEAK COASTAL
TROUGH DEVELOPS SAT WITH LOW LEVEL EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW
INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE LOWEST 3K FT OR SO. CURRENT FORECAST IS
DEVOID OF PRECIP HOWEVER THE INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE LATER
IN THE DAY SAT COULD PRODUCE SOME LIGHT PATCHY OF RAIN. WOULD NOT
EXPECT MUCH QPF SHOULD SOMETHING DEVELOP WITH COASTAL NC THE MOST
LIKELY AREA TO SEE SOMETHING. AT THE VERY LEAST ANTICIPATE AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER SAT INTO SUN.
COASTAL TROUGH DISSIPATES SUN AS SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF
THE AREA. ALTHOUGH DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW HELPS INCREASE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE SUN AND MON DRY MID LEVELS AND WEAK CAP...A RESULT OF
BUILDING WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE...WILL PREVENT ANY PRECIP. WEAK COLD
FRONT STALLED NORTH OF THE AREA TUE WILL TRY AND DROP SOUTH DURING
THE DAY. IF FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA DO NOT THINK IT WOULD HAVE
MUCH PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THE FRONT IS STRETCHED OUT WITH THE
DYNAMICS WELL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM WELL BELOW CLIMO AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD TO ABOVE CLIMO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE TRANSITION FROM BELOW
CLIMO TO ABOVE WILL BE QUICK...BY SAT NIGHT TEMPS SHOULD BE ABOVE
CLIMO.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...EXPECT CONTINUED AREAS OF PATCHY SEA FOG TO ADVECT
ONSHORE AT KCRE/KMYR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...REDUCING
VSBYS OFF AND ON TO MVFR BEFORE FLOW FROM VEERING WINDS STEER FOG
AWAY FROM TERMINALS AFTER DAYBREAK. FOR KILM...CURRENT RADAR
DEPICTS SOME -SHRA OFFSHORE. CANNOT RULE OUT A LIGHT SHOWER TO
WRAP AROUND TO TERMINAL...AND POSSIBLY THE TWO OTHER COASTAL
SITES...THUS HAVE OPTED TO INCLUDE VCSH FOR A FEW HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH ROUGHLY 06Z WITH SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5-8KTS. WITH MODELS IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT...ANTICIPATE CIGS AND VSBYS AT ALL SITES DETERIORATE
AFTER 07Z DUE TO ADVECTION FOG/STRATUS. FOR NOW...ANTICIPATE
LIFR/IFR CIGS...AND IFR/MVFR FOG THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. SOON
AFTER DAYBREAK...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO SLOWLY IMPROVE TO VFR...WITH
TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT CREATING GUSTY WINDS 18-22KTS ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA. WINDS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST. TOWARDS THE END OF THE VALID PERIOD INTO THE
NEXT...CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO DETERIORATE AGAIN AS A COLD
FRONT BRINGS ANTICIPATED SHRA AND ISOLATED TSRA.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING COULD CREATE ISOLATED TSRA AND IFR.
EXPECT VFR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH LOWERED CONFIDENCE FOR
POTENTIAL IFR FOG/STRATUS SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 755 PM TUESDAY...THIS UPDATE HAS FOCUSED ON THE REFINEMENT AND
PLACEMENT OF THE SEA FOG THREAT ACROSS THE ILM WATERS. FROM THE
UPDATE EARLIER...WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE PATCHY/AREAS OF SEA FOG
ACROSS THE ILM WATERS THROUGH OR JUST AFTER DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. WITH
THE LATEST AVAILABLE SST MAP OF THE ILM WATERS USING AVHRR DATA FOR
THE 2 DAYS ENDING ON NOV 14TH...HAVING INDICATED 2 PATCHES OF
NOTEWORTHY COOL SHELF WATERS...IE LOW TO MID 60S...WITH 1 BETWEEN
SURF CITY AND CAPE FEAR...AND OUT TO NEARLY THE FRYING PAN SHOALS
BUOY...41013. AND THE 2ND...LYING ACROSS THE WATERS BETWEEN NORTH
MYRTLE BEACH TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER. THIS 2ND ONE NOT NEARLY AS
PRONOUNCED AS THE 1ST. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVECT ACROSS THESE COOLER SHELF WATERS OVERNIGHT INTO
WED. THIS WILL RESULT WITH AN INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR SEA FOG TO
DEVELOP AND AFFECT THE ILM WATERS...PARTICULAR ACROSS THOSE COOL
WATERS. A FEW LOCAL SURF CAMS HAVE EVEN SHOWCASED THE EXISTENCE OF
THE SEA FOG. AS SYNOPTIC WINDS SLOWLY VEER FROM 190-230 OVERNIGHT
INTO WED...THE THREAT FOR SEA FOG WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH OR ATLEAST
KEEP THE FOG FROM ADVECTING ONSHORE/INLAND. WILL INDICATE VSBY
REDUCING TO 1NM OR LESS. IF ANY RECEIVED REPORTS AND/OR OBS INDICATE
1/2 NM OR LESS VSBYS...WILL THEN UPDATE AND ADVERTISE DENSE FOG.
HAVE MAINTAINED THE WINDS AND SEAS FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...WITH THE LATEST HRRR KEEPING WINDS AND SEAS ON THE LOWER
SIDE OF MODEL GUIDANCE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.................................................
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE IS MOVING FARTHER OFF THE EAST
COAST WITH A VERY MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING. MODELS ARE
PAINTING VERY DIFFERENT SCENARIOS FOR WIND SPEEDS TONIGHT DEPENDING
ON THE BEHAVIOR OF SHOWERS ALONG THE WESTERN WALL OF THE GULF
STREAM.
THE 12Z GFS AND NAM MODELS SHOW SYNOPTIC WINDS INCREASING TO 15-18
KT TONIGHT WHICH WOULD SUPPORT SEAS BUILDING TO NEARLY 5 FT NEAR AND
EAST OF CAPE FEAR. TWO EXPERIMENTAL NAM RUNS UTILIZING DIFFERENT
MODEL PHYSICS MAINTAIN EXTENSIVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE GULF STREAM OVERNIGHT WHICH DISRUPTS THE WIND
FIELDS ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST AND RESULTS IN MUCH LOWER WIND
SPEEDS. GIVEN THE PERSISTENCE OF CONVECTION SO FAR TODAY ALONG THE
WEST WALL OF THE GULF STREAM OUR FORECAST SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN THOSE TWO SCENARIOS AND HAS WINDS BUILDING TO 12-15 KT
OVERNIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO NO HIGHER THAN 4 FT AT 20 MILES FROM
SHORE.
NWS CHARLESTON ALERTED US TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEA FOG NEAR TYBEE
ISLAND...HILTON HEAD AND EDISTO BEACH THIS AFTERNOON. WITH PLENTY OF
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT SEA FOG MAY DEVELOP ALONG OUR
PORTION OF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST AS WELL. WE ARE INCLUDING PATCHY
FOG IN THE FORECAST WITHIN 5 MILES OF SHORE TONIGHT ALONG THE GRAND
STRAND AND NEAR GEORGETOWN.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE WATERS
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
THROUGH OUT THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AND THE LOCAL SWAN MODEL IS
INDICATING THE SEAS WILL REACH SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS AROUND
MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY MORNING. AS THE FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL HELP PROVIDE AN ENVIRONMENT
FOR 20 TO 25 KNOT OFF SHORE WINDS ON THURSDAY.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...POST FRONT COLD SURGE IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE
FRI WILL DROP CLOSER TO 10 KT BY SAT MORNING AS GRADIENT. WEAK
COASTAL TROF TAKING SHAPE WILL INDUCE A MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT TO
LOW LEVEL FLOW. GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD
WITH WINDS BECOMING EAST TO SOUTHEAST LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN AS
ELONGATED RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS OFFSHORE. ADVISORY WORTHY SEAS AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD WILL DROP TO 3 TO 4 FT BY FRI NIGHT AND REMAIN
IN THE 3 TO 4 FT RANGE THROUGH SUN.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HAWKINS
NEAR TERM...DOUGH/ARMSTRONG
SHORT TERM...HAWKINS
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...LACORTE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
515 PM EST MON NOV 14 2011
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH A FRONT
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL AROUND
OR JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE MARYLAND BORDER. ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL ROLL ALONG THE FRONT BUT TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY. THE UNSEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK TO
NORMALS LATER THIS WEEK AS A NOTICEABLY COLDER AIR MASS SETTLES
IN.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC LOW TRACKING NE OVR LK ERIE THIS EVENING. LL JET TRANSPORTING
INCREASINGLY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR INTO NW PA SETTING THE STAGE FOR A
ROUND OF TSRA LATER THIS EVENING AS TRAILING COLD FRONT ARRIVES
OVR THE NW MTNS. MDL SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY INDICATES LINE OF TSRA
WILL ARRIVE OVR WARREN COUNTY ARND 00Z. LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS
INDICATE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE NW
MTNS...COMBINED WITH PLENTY OF SHEAR...TO PRODUCE A SVR WX
POTENTIAL THRU ARND MIDNIGHT. LATEST MDL DATA INDICATES MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PA WILL REMAIN DRY THIS EVENING...SO HAVE
REMOVED MENTION OF PRECIP.
&&
.SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
FRONT PROGRESSES SOUTHWARD TONIGHT...AND WILL HOLD ONTO MENTIONS
OF THUNDER FOR THE EARLY NIGHTTIME IN THE WEST. GUSTY WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH DEEP-ER CONVECTION. EXPECT ANY STORMS TO BE
SHORT...BUT SVR WINDS NOT MORE THAN 3KFT OFF THE DECK EARLY
TONIGHT. DRY IS THE WORD FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE PD IN THE
SOUTH...AND MOISTURE AND FORCING BOTH DECREASE TONIGHT AS THE
FRONT DIPS THROUGH THE AREA. SFC WINDS GO LIGHT AND AMBIENT
MOISTURE COULD CREATE PATCHY FOG BUT NOT BAD/WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO
MENTION IN THE GRIDS. FRONT LOSES GOOD/VISIBLE WIND SHIFT AND
LITTLE P-GRAD FOUND LATER TONIGHT AND TUES AM. THUS...IT MAY BE
TOUGH TO PINPOINT WHERE THE HIGHER CHCS FOR PRECIP WILL BE
TUES...BUT WILL BEND TOWARD THE SREF MEAN PRECIP FIELDS AND PAINT
HIGHEST NUMBERS IN THE LAURELS WHERE UPSLOPE SHOULD HELP SQUEEZE
SOME MOISTURE OUT...BUT DOWNSLOPE AND MORE-DISTANCE FROM THE
WEAK MOISTURE FEED WILL MAKE IT A TOUGH FCST FOR PRECIP /NO OR
YES/ IN THE LOWER SUSQ. HAVE KEPT HIGH POPS IN FOR THE DAYTIME BUT
EXPECT QPF TO BE LOW LIKE TODAY/MONDAY HAS BEEN IN THE N. LOTS OF
RADAR ECHOES LIKELY...BUT ONLY MINOR ACCUMS. MEAGER POS CAPES
LATER TONIGHT AND TUES...BUT STABILITY INCREASES RATHER QUICKLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND LASTS THRU ALL OF TUES. MAXES ON TUES WILL BE
MILD AGAIN...BUT NOT AS TOASTY AS TODAY IN THE SOUTH WHERE THE
CLOUDS WILL BE THICKEST. ALMOST UNIFORM 55-60F MAXES ARE EXPECTED.
THESE ARE STILL 5-10F ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO DOMINATE THE EASTERN
US THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY AND THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION ON
WEDNESDAY. THE PERIOD WILL START WET WITH RAINS ALONG THE FRONT THEN
TURN DRY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT.
IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT...IT WILL TURN MUCH COLDER LATER
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...WITH 850 HPA TEMPERATURES DIPPING TO
ABOUT 1 SD BELOW NORMAL. THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF A BROAD AREA OF
STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL MOVE ACROSS NW AND NORTH
CENTRAL PENN WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY LEADING TO NUMEROUS SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NW MTNS...WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS FURTHER
SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU.
850 HPA TEMPS ARE -6C BY WED NIGHT AND FALL FARTHER TO -8C...WITH A
TROUGH OF VERY COLD 700 MB TEMPS NEAR -20C SLIDING ACROSS NRN PENN
ON THURSDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW SHOWER THREAT...THE WINDS
SHOULD PICK UP...PUSHING THE WIND CHILLS THROUGH THE 20S...AND INTO
THE TEENS LATE THURSDAY AND THUR NIGHT.
SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IMPLIES 1-3
INCHES OF SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PERENNIAL SNOWBELT
NEAR...AND TO THE WEST OF KBFD...WITH AN INCH OR LESS ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTH AND WEST.
FOR THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA...PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
WILL OCCUR IN THE WAKE OF THE CFRONT...WITH NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION.
TEMPERATURES MODERATE BACK TOWARD NORMAL THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...THAT PESKY RIDGE IN THE SOUTHEAST AND OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WILL LIMIT THE SOUTHWARD PENETRATION OF THE FRONT.
THE PW VALUES DROP BELOW NORMAL LATE WED AND STAY NORMAL
OR BELOW NORMAL FROM THU-SUNDAY. THIS PERIOD SHOULD BE UNSEASONABLY
DRY. WILL CONTINUE WITH BELOW NORMAL POPS FOR ALL OF THE REGION
DURING THE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY PERIOD.
AS THE TROUGH BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN US LATER THIS WEEK...THE
SOUTHEASTERN RIDGE SHOULD PUSH WARMER AIR INTO OUR REGION SATURDAY.
THE 850 HPA TEMPERATURES ARE PREDICTED TO BE 1SD ABOVE NORMAL LATE
SATURDAY ACROSS THE NW PART OF THE STATE...AND AREA-WIDE ON SUNDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES WITH THE NEXT CHC FOR SHOWERS LATER
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TAFS UPDATED AT 21Z FOR CURRENT ACTIVITY. FOR THE TIME BEING...
CONVECTION N OF PA. WILL KEEP THIS SHORT AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE RADAR ETC.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
STABILITY MAY DIP ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ISOLD TSRA LATE THIS
AFTN/EARLY EVENING IN THE WEST...BUT WILL ONLY KEEP A MENTION OF
CB IN THOSE TAFS FOR NOW. CONFIDENCE OF THUNDER AT ANY POINT
ALMOST NIL. PER LATEST MESO MDLS AND RADAR TRENDS...THE CURR AREA
OF SHOWERS SHOULD LIFT OUT BY 22Z...AND A BREAK MAY OCCUR BEFORE A
LINE OF STORMS COULD FORM ALONG THE FRONT VCTY OF LK ERIE. STRONG
WINDS OF 40-50KT JUST 2-3KT ALOFT WILL MAKE LLWS AND MECH
TURBULENCE THE GREATEST THREATS TO AVIATION THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. BUT THESE WINDS MAY ALSO MIX DOWN IF ANY CONVECTION CAN
DEVELOP AND GET DEEP ENOUGH. THE LINE OF STORMS WOULD MOST LIKELY
BE ON THE FRONT AS IT PRESSES SOUTHWARD. VFR TO MVFR CONDS SHOULD
PREVAIL FOR THE MOST PART WITH POST-FNTL IFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT BFD
AFT 06Z...THEN KJST AFTER 09Z. LINGERING RAIN ON TUESDAY WILL
PROBABLY KEEP THE CIGS AND VSBY IN MVFR FOR MOST SITES. KBFD MIGHT
BE THE NICEST LOCATION. WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10KTS TUES AND THE
STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL ALSO SLACK OFF TO ONLY 30KT OR SO AT 2KFT.
WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY LLWS FOR ALL SITES FOR MOST OF THE TAF
VALID PD THOUGH.
OUTLOOK...
TUES NIGHT-WED...MVFR TO IFR IN PDS OF RAIN...ESP SOUTH.
THU...MVFR TO IFR CIGS WEST WITH -SHSN. VFR TO MVFR EAST.
FRI-SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...DANGELO/FITZGERALD/MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NWS RAPID CITY SD
1031 AM MST MON NOV 14 2011
.UPDATE...LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE
REGION WITH ISOLATED -SHRASN IN A NARROW BAND FROM SOUTHEASTERN
MONTANA TO NEAR PIERRE IN CENTARL SD. EXPECT LAPSE RATES TO
STEEPEN AGAIN DUE TO DIURNAL HEATING...WHICH WILL INCREASE THE
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION...18Z TAF FCST
ISOLD/SCT SHSN OR SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD OVER NERN WY AND WRN SD. BRIEF PERIODS OF LCL IFR VIS WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHSN. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 AM MST MON NOV 14 2011/
DISCUSSION...09Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE
CWA. REGIONAL RADAR LOOPS HAD ISOLATED -SHSN FROM MT INTO SD IN A
REGIME DOMINATED BY VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES...SEE 00Z KUNR
SOUNDING...AND A BIT OF MLCAPE PER LATEST RUC ANALYSIS. WATER
VAPOUR HAD MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL NORTH AMERICAN WITH
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO WESTERN CANADA.
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...DIRTY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH CONTINUE
WITH VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES FROM 850-600MB. MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED. HOWEVER...A PARADE OF SHORTWAVES WITH RATHER COLD 500MB
AIR WILL TRAVERSE THE CWA. SHOULD SEE ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. A COLDER PUSH OF AIR DROPS IN
TONIGHT WITH THE BEST 850-700MB FRONTOGENESIS. 850MB WINDS WILL
BE 20-35KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD AND THAT COMBINED WITH DEEP MIXING
WILL SUPPORT WINDY/GUSTY WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS. PRECIPITATION TYPE
SHOULD LEAN STRONGLY TOWARD -SHSN TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT GIVEN
LOWER TROPOSPHERIC THERMAL PROFILES. CHILLY DAY EXPECTED TUESDAY.
WEDNESDAY...UPPER FLOW SLOWLY BECOME LESS CYCLONIC WITH UPPER
RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE ROCKIES. STILL COLD THOUGH GIVEN 850-700MB
TEMPERATURES.
EXTENDED...UPPER RIDGE SLIDES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
THURSDAY...WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
STRONG UPPER TROF PUSHES THROUGH THE WEST COAST FRIDAY...WITH UPPER
FLOW SHIFTING SOUTHWEST OVER OUR AREA. WEAK ENERGY WILL EJECT OVER
THE AREA AHEAD OF THE TROF AS IT SLOWLY APPROACHES...BRINGING
CHANCES FOR PRECIP LATE FRIDAY. BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL OCCUR
OVER THE WEEKEND AS UPPER TROF SLIDES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO BELOW AVERAGE FROM FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NWS RAPID CITY SD
505 AM MST MON NOV 14 2011
.AVIATION...12Z TAFS
SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY WESTERLY AT 10-20 KTS THROUGH THIS
MORNING...AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED -SHRA/SHSN WILL CONTINUE TO CROSS NERN WY AND WRN SD FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY...PRODUCING LOCALIZED MVFR
CONDITIONS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 AM MST MON NOV 14 2011/
DISCUSSION...09Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE
CWA. REGIONAL RADAR LOOPS HAD ISOLATED -SHSN FROM MT INTO SD IN A
REGIME DOMINATED BY VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES...SEE 00Z KUNR
SOUNDING...AND A BIT OF MLCAPE PER LATEST RUC ANALYSIS. WATER
VAPOUR HAD MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL NORTH AMERICAN WITH
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO WESTERN CANADA.
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...DIRTY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH CONTINUE
WITH VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES FROM 850-600MB. MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED. HOWEVER...A PARADE OF SHORTWAVES WITH RATHER COLD 500MB
AIR WILL TRAVERSE THE CWA. SHOULD SEE ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. A COLDER PUSH OF AIR DROPS IN
TONIGHT WITH THE BEST 850-700MB FRONTOGENESIS. 850MB WINDS WILL
BE 20-35KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD AND THAT COMBINED WITH DEEP MIXING
WILL SUPPORT WINDY/GUSTY WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS. PRECIPITATION TYPE
SHOULD LEAN STRONGLY TOWARD -SHSN TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT GIVEN
LOWER TROPOSPHERIC THERMAL PROFILES. CHILLY DAY EXPECTED TUESDAY.
WEDNESDAY...UPPER FLOW SLOWLY BECOME LESS CYCLONIC WITH UPPER
RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE ROCKIES. STILL COLD THOUGH GIVEN 850-700MB
TEMPERATURES.
EXTENDED...UPPER RIDGE SLIDES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
THURSDAY...WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
STRONG UPPER TROF PUSHES THROUGH THE WEST COAST FRIDAY...WITH UPPER
FLOW SHIFTING SOUTHWEST OVER OUR AREA. WEAK ENERGY WILL EJECT OVER
THE AREA AHEAD OF THE TROF AS IT SLOWLY APPROACHES...BRINGING
CHANCES FOR PRECIP LATE FRIDAY. BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL OCCUR
OVER THE WEEKEND AS UPPER TROF SLIDES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO BELOW AVERAGE FROM FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM....15
AVIATION...15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NWS RAPID CITY SD
250 AM MST MON NOV 14 2011
.DISCUSSION...09Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE
CWA. REGIONAL RADAR LOOPS HAD ISOLATED -SHSN FROM MT INTO SD IN A
REGIME DOMINATED BY VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES...SEE 00Z KUNR
SOUNDING...AND A BIT OF MLCAPE PER LATEST RUC ANALYSIS. WATER
VAPOUR HAD MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL NORTH AMERICAN WITH
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO WESTERN CANADA.
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...DIRTY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH CONTINUE
WITH VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES FROM 850-600MB. MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED. HOWEVER...A PARADE OF SHORTWAVES WITH RATHER COLD 500MB
AIR WILL TRAVERSE THE CWA. SHOULD SEE ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. A COLDER PUSH OF AIR DROPS IN
TONIGHT WITH THE BEST 850-700MB FRONTOGENESIS. 850MB WINDS WILL
BE 20-35KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD AND THAT COMBINED WITH DEEP MIXING
WILL SUPPORT WINDY/GUSTY WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS. PRECIPITATION TYPE
SHOULD LEAN STRONGLY TOWARD -SHSN TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT GIVEN
LOWER TROPOSPHERIC THERMAL PROFILES. CHILLY DAY EXPECTED TUESDAY.
WEDNESDAY...UPPER FLOW SLOWLY BECOME LESS CYCLONIC WITH UPPER
RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE ROCKIES. STILL COLD THOUGH GIVEN 850-700MB
TEMPERATURES.
EXTENDED...UPPER RIDGE SLIDES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
THURSDAY...WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
STRONG UPPER TROF PUSHES THROUGH THE WEST COAST FRIDAY...WITH UPPER
FLOW SHIFTING SOUTHWEST OVER OUR AREA. WEAK ENERGY WILL EJECT OVER
THE AREA AHEAD OF THE TROF AS IT SLOWLY APPROACHES...BRINGING
CHANCES FOR PRECIP LATE FRIDAY. BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL OCCUR
OVER THE WEEKEND AS UPPER TROF SLIDES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO BELOW AVERAGE FROM FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...06Z TAF UPDATE
SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY WESTERLY AT 10-20 KTS THROUGH THIS
MORNING...AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED -SHRA/SHSN WILL CONTINUE TO CROSS NERN WY AND WRN SD FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY...PRODUCING LOCALIZED MVFR
CONDITIONS.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM....15
AVIATION...15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
926 PM CST TUE NOV 15 2011
.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...
VFR/MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. THE COLD FRONT HAS
PUSHED EAST AND INCREASING WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED. SFC WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE DECOUPLED FROM THE STRONGER
WINDS ABOUT 1KFT AGL. THUS WILL CONTINUE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEER IN
THE TAFS THROUGH ABOUT 12-13Z WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE
QUICKLY TO ABOUT 35KTS AT 1KFT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 PM CST TUE NOV 15 2011/
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKING FROM NORTHERN WI TO LAKE SUPERIOR
WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THIS EVENING.
SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST TO WEST EARLY THIS EVENING
IN MADISON...LATER THIS EVENING IN MILWAUKEE. WINDS WILL THEN VEER
TO THE WNW AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO COOL THIS
EVENING...BUT THEN DROP RAPIDLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION BEHIND THE SFC TROUGH/FRONT. LOWS EXPECTED IN THE MID TO
UPPER 20S...WARMEST NEAR THE LAKE. 850MB TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -8
TO -10C OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY THE COLDEST SO FAR THIS SEASON.
WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE THIS EVENING WITH AN INVERSION SETTING
UP...THEN HAVE A BETTER POTENTIAL TO GUST AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT
ESPECIALLY EARLY WED MORNING...WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION. THE
NAM SNDGS SHOW A STRONGER INVERSION THAN THE RUC AND GFS...BUT
MAKE SENSE. EXPECT WNW WINDS THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS LIKELY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY RELAX WED AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES INTO SOUTHERN WI.
SHORT TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
MEDIUM TO HIGH.
SECONDARY COLD FRONT SHIFTS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH SOME MORE COLD AIR ADVECTION IN ITS WAKE. PASSING
VORTICITY MAXIMUM FIGHTING SOMEWHAT DRY AIRMASS OVER THE AREA...SO
LEFT OUT MENTION OF FLURRIES. COLDER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE...WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S PER 925MB
TEMPERATURES OF 5 TO 9 BELOW ZERO.
WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS THURSDAY...AND CONTINUES THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY ACROSS THE AREA. THURSDAY SHOULD STILL REMAIN
COLD...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...AS WINDS SHIFT SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
AND BECOME GUSTY WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. HIGHS SHOULD
RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S FRIDAY...WITH THE FAIRLY DRY
AIRMASS LINGERING WITH CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION.
LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
MEDIUM.
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY
NIGHT...THEN SHIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION SATURDAY...THEN
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THE GFS/CANADIAN/00Z ECMWF
DIFFER SOMEWHAT WITH TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE LOW. THE CANADIAN
IS QUICKEST NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA...ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY
00Z SUNDAY. THE GFS/00Z ECMWF ARE SLOWER AND OVER NORTH
CENTRAL/NORTHEAST IOWA AT 00Z SUNDAY.
ALL MODELS BRING FOCUSED WARM AIR ADVECTION AND FRONTOGENESIS
RESPONSE THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY...WITH AREA THEN GETTING INTO
THE WARM SECTOR. COLD FRONT THEN SHIFTS EAST THROUGH THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT. MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH STAYS NORTHWEST OF THE AREA
DURING THIS TIME.
KEPT HIGH END CHANCE POPS FOR SATURDAY...THEN TRENDED DOWNWARD
SATURDAY NIGHT. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDER SATURDAY WITHIN
WARM SECTOR AND WEAK INSTABILITY IN LOW LEVELS WITH STRONG
DYNAMICS...AND SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES.
COLDER AIR QUICKLY WRAPS INTO THE BACKSIDE OF SYSTEM LATER
SATURDAY NIGHT...SO MENTIONED CHANCES FOR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA. MAY HAVE TO RAISE
POPS IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS IF MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GENERAL
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEMS.
MODELS THEN IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY...THEN SLOWLY EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH TUESDAY. THEY ALSO SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
THE REGION MONDAY...WITH THE GFS ABOUT SIX HOURS SLOWER THAN THE
00Z ECMWF. SOME QUESTION AS TO THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE
WITH THIS FEATURE. FOR NOW...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. THE REST OF THIS PERIOD APPEARS TO BE
DRY. COOL TEMPERATURES SHOULD LINGER DURING THIS PERIOD AS WELL.
AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM NORTHERN WISCONSIN TO LAKE
SUPERIOR THIS EVENING...AND DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN WI.
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER WEST
THIS THIS EVENING...THEN WNW AND INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
COLDER AIR WORKING INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT.
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT AT ALL TAF SITES.
WIND GUSTS WILL INCREASE TOWARD WED MORNING AS THE INVERSION
ERODES AWAY WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION. BRISK DAY ON WED...WITH GUSTS
TO 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE.
MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS FROM NORTHERN WI THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR AND INTO
ONTARIO. THERE WILL BE A LULL IN THE WINDS THIS EVENING AS THE
SURFACE TROUGH CROSSES LAKE MICHIGAN...THEN WINDS WILL INCREASE
TOWARD WEDNESDAY MORNING AS COLD AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA BEHIND
THE FRONT. WINDS WILL EASE IN THE AFTERNOON...FALLING BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA BY EVENING.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO SOUTHERN WI AND LAKE
MICHIGAN ON THURSDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE ONCE
AGAIN BETWEEN THE HIGH IN THE SOUTHERN U.S. AND LOW PRESSURE
MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST. SMALL CRAFT ADVY POTENTIAL ONCE
AGAIN ON FRIDAY.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ643>646.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DAVIS
TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MRC
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WOOD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
958 AM MST MON NOV 14 2011
.UPDATE...STRONG DOWNSLOPING WINDS OFF THE LARAMIE RANGE HAS
CAUSED DEWPOINTS TO REALLY BEGIN TO DRY OUT THIS MORNING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. LATEST HRRR FORECAST SHOWING TDS DROPPING
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS OUT THAT WAY THIS AFTERNOON WITH AFTERNOON
MIN HUMIDITIES DROPPING INTO THE LOW TEENS. WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED
A RED FLAG WARNING FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 313 IN THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LOW HUMIDITIES AND STRONG WINDS.
UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.
CLAYCOMB
&&
AVIATION...18Z TAFS.
VFR OVER ALL TERMINALS THROUGH TUESDAY BUT SOME HIGHER MTN
OBSCURATIONS EXPECTED. STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED OVER
MAINLY SE WY TERMINALS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON THEN EASING SOME
THIS EVENING.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM MST MON NOV 14 2011/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A BROAD UPPER TROUGH ENCOMPASSING MUCH
OF THE CONUS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING EAST ACROSS WESTERN
COLORADO AND ANOTHER THROUGH THE DAKOTAS. THE REGIONAL SURFACE
ANALYSIS DEPICTED A COLD FRONT FROM A LOW NORTHEAST OF FARGO
SOUTHWESTWARD INTO WEST CENTRAL NEBRASKA. HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILED
OVER SOUTHERN WYOMING AND NORTHERN COLORADO. WESTERLY SURFACE
WINDS WERE GUSTING BETWEEN 35 AND 55 MPH OVER MUCH OF SOUTHEAST
WYOMING COURTESY OF A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND 50-60 KT 700 MB
WINDS. TEMPERATURES AT 3 AM WERE IN THE 20S AND 30S.
THE 00Z SHORT RANGE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE OUTPUT REVEALED GOOD
RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY. IT MAINTAINS THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS
MUCH OF NORTH AMERICA DURING THE SHORT TERM...WITH THE NORTH TO SOUTH
AXIS OVER THE GREAT PLAINS. THIS PATTERN WILL PROVIDE A FAST NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES. ONE WAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST
FROM MONTANA INTO NORTHERN AND EASTERN WYOMING TONIGHT AND THE DAKOTAS
ON TUESDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED... BUT DYNAMICS AND STEEP LAPSE
RATES WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES
TONIGHT FOR AREAS NORTH OF A LINE FROM DOUGLAS TO CHADRON. WILL SEE
A RETURN OF SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MOUNTAIN
RANGES TONIGHT AND LASTING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT DUE TO NORTHWEST FLOW...
WEAK INSTABILITY AND OROGRAPHICS. TODAY/S CONCERN WILL BE THE STRONG
WESTERLY WINDS AS 700 MB WINDS RANGE FROM 50 TO 60 KT ACROSS SOUTHEAST
WYOMING...RESULTING IN SURFACE WIND GUSTS OF 55 TO 70 MPH ALONG THE
INTERSTATE 80 AND 25 WIND CORRIDORS. THE HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS
IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM MST FOR THESE AREAS. FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE
WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...SUSTAINED WINDS TODAY WILL BE CLOSE
TO ADVISORY CRITERIA AT 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH. THE
WINDS WILL SLOWLY START TO DIMINISH TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BEGINS TO RELAX A BIT. GUSTS OF 45 TO 55 MPH ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WYOMING TONIGHT. THE DECREASING WIND TREND WILL CONTINUE
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS WINDS ALOFT WEAKEN AND PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES FURTHER. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL REMAIN 5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL WITH UPPER 40S AND 50S. THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO AFFECT
THE CWA WILL PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH MONTANA AND NORTH DAKOTA LATER
TODAY...CENTRAL WYOMING AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA TONIGHT...AND EASTERN
COLORADO AND CENTRAL KANSAS TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST
OF THE LARAMIE RANGE IN THE POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN WYOMING AND THE DAKOTAS
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING FROM THE NORTHERN
LARAMIE RANGE EAST INTO THE NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. THE FLOW
ALOFT WEDNESDAY BECOMES LESS CYCLONIC WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE EAST AND WEAK RIDGING UPSTREAM. A SURFACE
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION...PROMOTING DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN
TUESDAY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT.
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
14/00Z NAM...GFS AND ECMWF SIMILAR WITH THEIR 500 MB SYNOPTIC
PATTERNS...THUS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THEIR RESPECTIVE MODEL SOLUTIONS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY...FLOW ALOFT BACKS TO ZONAL...WEST TO EAST...
THUS INDUCING A DECENT WARMING TREND AS SURFACE LEE TROUGHING BECOMES
WELL ESTABLISHED FROM EASTERN MONTANA THROUGH EASTERN WYOMING TO
EASTERN COLORADO. DRY WITH LACK OF LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE.
BREEZY TO WINDY WITH PROGGED UNIDIRECTIONAL SURFACE THROUGH 700 MB
GRADIENTS. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES 40S WEST AND 50S EAST WITH 1000-500
MB THICKNESSES NEAR 5520 METERS.
FRIDAY...FLOW ALOFT BACKS EVEN FURTHER TO SOUTHWEST IN ADVANCE OF
APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE GREAT BASIN STATES. GFS HINTS AT A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ENTERING OUR NORTHEAST COUNTIES FROM DOUGLAS TO
KIMBALL...THOUGH STILL TOO EARLY TO TELL WHERE THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL END UP. ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION WILL FALL OVER
WESTERN WYOMING...WILL MESH WITH OUR RIVERTON NEIGHBORS TO THE WEST
AND INCLUDE SOME LOW CHANCE POPS WEST OF A DOUGLAS TO LARAMIE LINE
WITH DEEPENING LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE LIFTED BY OROGRAPHICS AND
DYNAMICS.
SATURDAY...INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES ACROSS WYOMING
SPREADING SNOWFALL ACROSS OUR COUNTIES AND BRINGING IN A COLDER
AIRMASS IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.
SUNDAY...UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES WITH LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGHING
ACROSS MONTANA AND WYOMING AND MOIST WEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS WYOMING
PRODUCING OROGRAPHIC SNOWS ACROSS OUR SIERRA MADRE AND SNOWY RANGES
WITH MOSTLY DRY WEATHER ELSEWHERE.
FIRE WEATHER...
STRONG WINDS ALOFT AND A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO
GENERATE WINDY CONDITIONS TODAY. WINDS WILL GUST FROM 55 TO 70 MPH
ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING...AND 30 TO 40 MPH FOR THE WESTERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE. THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
WITH THE RELAXING GRADIENT. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TODAY WILL
RANGE BETWEEN 25 AND 35 PERCENT EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...AND 30
TO 40 PERCENT TUESDAY.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY FOR WYZ103-WYZ104-WYZ105-
WYZ106-WYZ109-WYZ110-WYZ113-WYZ115-WYZ116-WYZ117-WYZ118.
NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MONDAY FOR NEZ019-NEZ020-NEZ021-
NEZ054-NEZ055.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JAMSKI
LONG TERM/AVIATION...RUBIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER CO
1149 PM MST TUE NOV 15 2011
.UPDATE...
&&
.SHORT TERM...WINDS IN THE DENVER METRO AREA JUST SHIFTED TO A
NORTHERLY DIRECTION WITH PASSAGE OF A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH
IS BEING PUSHED SOUTHWARD BY 2-3MB PRESSURE RISE COUPLET ALONG
THE COLORADO/WYOMING BORDER. WIND SPEEDS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THIS
BOUNDARY IN THE 10-20KT RANGE. WIND SHIFT/SURGE NOT HANDLED WELL
BY THE MODELS EXCEPT FOR THE RUC. ALTHOUGH THE RUC WAS A BIT
PREMATURE TO MOVE THIS WIND SHIFT THROUGH THE METRO AREA. AT ANY
RATE...UPDATED WIND AND WIND GUST GRIDS OUT TO 18Z USING THE
LATEST RUC AND HRRR MODEL RUNS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CURRENT WIND
SHIFT AND TO REFLECT THE NORTHERLY WIND PATTERN EXPECTED ON THE
PLAINS DURING THE DAY.
.AVIATION...JUST UPDATED DENVER AREA TERMINAL FORECASTS TO REFLECT
THE SHIFT THE NORTHERLY WINDS WITH PASSAGE OF A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. NEXT FEW HOURS SHOULD SEE WINDS IN THE METRO AREA
ASSUMING A SOMEWHAT TYPICAL DRAINING PATTERN...ONLY TO SWING
AROUND TO A NORTHERLY COMPONENT AROUND MID-MORNING WITH HEATING
AND MIXING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 952 PM MST TUE NOV 15 2011/
UPDATE...
SHORT TERM...JET RELATED LIFT HAS RESOLVED INTO TWO SHOWER BANDS.
THE MAIN ONE IS NOW FROM SOUTHERN SUMMIT COUNTY OUT TO WASHINGTON
COUNTY WHILE A WEAKER ONE HAS DEVELOPED ON THE BACK EDGE OF THE
CLOUD DECK FROM NEAR STEAMBOAT SPRINGS INTO LARIMER COUNTY.
DOWNSLOPE WINDS ARE STILL ENOUGH TO KILL THE SHOWERS ALONG THE
EAST SLOPES...AND LOW LEVELS ARE STILL PRETTY DRY TOO...SO I
EXPECT THAT WE ARE SEEING MAINLY FLURRIES ON THE PLAINS AND JUST
LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS. COULD SEE AN INCH OR TWO WHERE THE
SHOWERS ARE TRAINING I SUPPOSE. INCOMING AIR WAS A BIT
COLDER/DRIER THAN EXPECTED SO DROPPED TEMPS ABOUT 4 DEGREES
TONIGHT. AREAS THAT CLEARED EARLIER WILL HAVE CLOUDS FOR A WHILE...BUT
COULD STILL DROP EVEN COLDER IN THE NORTHERN/WESTERN PARTS OF THE
AREA IF IT CLEARS AGAIN BEFORE MORNING.
AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS AS WEAK SHOWERS STAY AWAY FROM THE
DENVER AREA...NO CHANGES NEEDED.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 PM MST TUE NOV 15 2011/
SHORT TERM...LATEST Q-G ANALYSIS SHOWS DEEP BUT WEAK LIFT OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. SOME OF THIS LIFT IS LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
RIGHT REAR ENTRANCE REGION OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL JET.
MEANWHILE...ANOTHER SPEED MAX WAS MOVING TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS
AREA AND THERE IS ALSO A MODEST AMOUNT OF FRONTOGENESIS DEPICTED
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD KEEP AT LEAST WEAK
LIFT GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...AIRMASS WILL
SLOWLY DESTABILIZE WITH COLD ADVECTION ALOFT. WE ARE STILL A LITTLE
SKEPTICAL OF THE MOISTURE SHOWN...ESPECIALLY WITH THE GFS WHICH
SEEMS TO AGGRESSIVE WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND THUS PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS OVER THE PLAINS. WE WILL LEAN TOWARD THE NAM AND LATEST RUC
SOLUTIONS TONIGHT WHICH ARE MORE CONSERVATIVE OVER EAST CENTRAL
COLORADO. WE ALSO KEEP THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION CONFINED TO THE
PALMER DIVIDE AREA EASTWARD TOWARD AKRON AND LIMON TONIGHT BASED ON
THIS AREA BEING UNDER THE BEST LIFT...MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE...AND
FRONTOGENESIS.
IN THE MOUNTAINS...SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT BUT MOISTURE
DEPTH IS QUITE LIMITED. A FEW SPOTS HAVE PICKED UP AN INCH OR TWO
TODAY BASED ON THE SNOTEL DATA...AND EXPECT SIMILAR AMOUNTS TONIGHT.
BY WEDNESDAY...AIRMASS WILL BE DRYING WITH SNOW SHOWERS COMING TO AN
END IN THE MOUNTAINS. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL ON THE
PLAINS WITH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE. WINDS WILL ALSO BE
LIGHTER IN MOST LOCATIONS.
LONG TERM...FAST ZONAL FLOW LOOKS LIKE IT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
COUNTRY FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE POLAR JET STREAM WILL
MIGRATE BACK AND FORTH OVER THE STATE AT TIMES THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES. RIPPLES EMBEDDED IN THE
ZONAL FLOW WILL BRING PERIODS OF SNOW TO THE MOUNTAINS AND GUSTY
WINDS OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND EAST SLOPES. THE FIRST MAIN
JET WILL BE PASSING OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING THE FIRST
EPISODE OF GUSTY WINDS TO THE FOOTHILLS TOMORROW NIGHT. STRONG
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN SINCE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER KANSAS WILL INITIALLY PRODUCE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST COLORADO PLAINS. SPEEDS ALSO APPEAR TO NOT BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANY HIGHLIGHTS FOR NOW.
ON THURSDAY NIGHT...THE RIGHT EXIT REGION OF ANOTHER UPPER JET WILL
BE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER PERIOD OF
GUSTY WINDS WHICH MIGHT WORK THEIR WAY DOWN THE EASTERN FOOTHILL
SLOPES. BY FRIDAY...THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
APPROACHING COLORADO WHICH WILL SPREAD SNOW INTO THE MOUNTAINS.
THIS TROUGH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A COMPLICATED UPPER LEVEL JET
STRUCTURE...HELPING TO ENHANCE SNOWFALL OVER THE NORTHWEST PART OF
THE STATE. BY SATURDAY MORNING...THE MODELS SHOW THIS TROUGH
SHEARING OUT OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE BEFORE PRODUCING ANY
PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTHEAST COLORADO PLAINS. THE STATE WILL
CONTINUE UNDER STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LOW CUTS OFF ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST.
THIS UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO BE MOVING TOWARDS COLORADO BY
TUESDAY...WITH MOST OF ITS PRECIPITATION OCCURRING OVER NEW MEXICO
AND SOUTHERN COLORADO. ALL IN ALL...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN BUT
WITHOUT ENOUGH WIND OR PRECIPITATION TO WARRANT ANY HIGHLIGHTS FOR
NOW.
AVIATION...ANTICYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW IS STILL MAKING FOR A TRICKY
WIND FORECAST THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL TREND MORE
EAST/SOUTHEASTERLY AND EVENTUALLY RETURN TO NORMAL DIURNAL SOUTHERLY
FLOW AFT 06Z TONIGHT. THERE IS JUST A SLIGHT RISK OF A PASSING SNOW
SHOWER IN THE AREA BUT AT THIS TIME MAIN CHANCE WOULD REMAIN TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FRONT RANGE AIRPORTS AND AFFECT THE SOUTHEAST
APPROACH GATES AROUND LIMON FROM 01Z-10Z. VISUAL LANDING CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL WITH ONLY A SLIGHT RISK OF CEILINGS DROPPING BELOW
6000 FT AGL BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z. ON WEDNESDAY...LOOK FOR ONLY
FEW-SCT CLOUDS ABOVE 7000 FT AND WINDS BECOMING NORTH/NORTHEAST
10-15 KTS AROUND 18Z.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BAKER/GIMMESTAD/BARJENBRUCH
LONG TERM....DANKERS
AVIATION...BAKER/GIMMESTAD/BARJENBRUCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1202 AM EST WED NOV 16 2011
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE FLUCTUATING QUITE A BIT OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. FIRST...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA TONIGHT BRINGING MUCH COLDER AIR BEHIND IT. HIGHS WILL
ONLY TOP OFF IN THE 40S THE NEXT FEW DAYS DESPITE THE DRY
CONDITIONS. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS A RATHER STRONG SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA. FURTHER OUT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RE-ESTABLISH
ITSELF OVER CENTRAL INDIANA LATE MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...
SO FAR CURRENT FORECAST SEEMS TO BE ON TRACK. PRESENTLY RAIN
OCCURRING SOUTH OF OHIO RIVER...BUT RADAR LOOPS INDICATE THAT IT HAS
PUSHED NORTH INTO MISSOURI BOOTHEEL AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVING ACROSS ARKANSAS AND TENNESSEE. RUC BRINGS PRECIPITATION
ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY...BUT NOTHING
MUCH NORTH OF OUR SOUTHERN ROW OF COUNTIES.
I HAVE ADJUSTED RAIN AREA SLIGHTLY SOUTH OVERNIGHT...BUT NOT ENOUGH
TO UPDATE FORECAST PRODUCTS. ONE MINOR CHANGE IN GRIDS WILL BE TO
SLOW DOWN FALL OF TEMPERATURES A LITTLE OVERNIGHT UNTIL SECONDARY
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. BUT EVEN THERE THE OVERNIGHT
LOWS STILL SEEM TO BE ON TRACK WITH MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS OUR
NORTHWEST AND LOWER TO MID 40S SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TOMORROW THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM IS TEMPS.
MUCH COOLER TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TOMORROW IN THE
WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. HIGHS WILL ONLY TOP OFF IN THE UPPER
40S/LOWER 50S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...AND MID 40S TO THE
NORTH. MODELS SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE COLD
ADVECTION...SO WENT WITH ALLBLEND. TOMORROW NIGHT...TRENDED ON THE
WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE AS CLOUDS BUILD INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF A
BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW. GUIDANCE IS SHOWING LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER
20S...SO WENT WITH UPPER 20S/LOW 30S. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW
SINCE 850MB TEMPS ARE HINTING AT A COOLING TREND.
THURSDAY...WENT ABOVE GUIDANCE SINCE WINDS WILL BE BACKING TO THE
WEST THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY. THIS MAY BE TOO OPTIMISTIC
THOUGH...SO CONFIDENCE IS A BIT LOW. FOR NOW...HAVE HIGHS OF LOW
TO MID 40S OVER THE NORTH...AND UPPER 40S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA. THURSDAY NIGHT...JUST WENT WITH A
BLEND OF UPPER 20S/LOW 30S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS ARE HAVING TIMING DIFFICULTIES WITH A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM
THAT IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT CENTRAL INDIANA THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE 12Z ECMWF AND 12Z GEM ARE BOTH QUITE A BIT FASTER
THAN THE 12Z GFS. THE 12Z GFS ESEMBLE MEANS WERE IN BETWEEN...BUT
THE ESEMBLES HAD LARGE STANDARD DEVIATIONS. SO...AT THIS POINT...A
NON-GFS BLEND LOOKS GOOD. HAD TO MAKE SEVERAL CHANGES TO THE
INITIALIZATION EXTENDED REGARDING TIMING OF THE RAIN. DROPPED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WELL TO THE
WEST ACROSS THE ROCKIES. OTHERWISE...THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE
ACROSS SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS SUGGEST SYSTEM STRONG ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS SHOWERS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE 12Z ECMWF ALSO WAS SHOWING A WAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST ALONG
THE OSCILLATING FRONT NEAR THE OHIO RIVER ON MONDAY WHICH JUSTIFIES
KEEPING POPS IN THROUGH THEN. FINALLY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD DRY THINGS OUT BY
TUESDAY AND ALLOW FOR MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE 40S FOR
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN CONTRAST TO HIGHS IN THE 50S AND POSSIBLY 60S
SATURDAY IN THE RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AFTER COORDINATING
WITH ADJACENT OFFICES...PULLED THE INITIALIZATION EXTENDED POPS.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 16/06Z TAFS/...
CEILINGS AT SOME LOCATIONS /HUF AND BMG ESPECIALLY/ HAVE AT LEAST
TEMPORARILY DROPPED INTO IFR CATEGORY...AND MAY REMAIN THERE UNTIL
THE SECONDARY FRONT PASSES EARLY THIS MORNING. SREF PROBABILITIES
INDICATE MVFR/IFR SHOULD END AT HUF/IND AROUND 09Z...LASTING AT BMG
THROUGH MID MORNING.
SOME CONCERN ABOUT FOG OR LIFR CEILINGS WITH SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY IN
PROXIMITY TO SITES...AND SOME UNSETTLINGLY LOW TEMP/DEWPOINT
SPREADS...BUT NO GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS AS A SIGNIFICANT
POTENTIAL...AND WITH BOUNDARY MAKING SLOW BUT STEADY PROGRESS...WILL
LEAVE OUT. WILL REQUIRE MONITORING...ESPECIALLY NEAR SUNRISE AT ALL
SITES.
WINDS FROM MID MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL BE NORTHERLY...AND
GUSTY INTO THE MID TO HIGH TEENS.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....50
AVIATION...NIELD/50
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
301 AM MST WED NOV 16 2011
.DISCUSSION...
301 AM MST WED NOV 16 2011
FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE TODAY...AND THEN HOW FAST IS THE
TEMPERATURE RECOVERY INTO FRIDAY. SATELLITE SHOWING SOME
AMPLIFICATION TO THE FLOW FROM THE WESTERN PACIFIC INTO CENTRAL NORTH
AMERICA. UPPER TROUGH IS STILL HANGING AROUND OVER THE CENTRAL
PORTION OF THE COUNTRY WITH NUMEROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH
IT. COLD FRONT THAT WENT THROUGH EARLIER TODAY EXTENDS FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF COLORADO.
MODELS INITIALIZED FINE AT JET LEVEL. MODELS INITIALIZED FINE AT MID
LEVELS EXCEPT THE GFS WAS TOO MOIST. THE MODELS TENDED TO BE
SLIGHTLY TOO FAR EAST AND SOUTH WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE AND THE LEE
SURFACE TROUGH. HOWEVER...THE NAM WAS PRETTY CLOSE AND SLIGHTLY
BETTER THAN THE ECMWF. ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD OVERALL...THE
CANADIAN...GFS AND UKMET WERE ABOUT THE SAME AND A LITTLE BETTER
WITH THE NAM NOT TOO FAR BEHIND AND MAYBE BETTER TO THE NORTH OF THE
AREA.
TODAY/TONIGHT...INITIAL PROBLEM WILL BE COVERAGE AND DURATION OF
SNOWFALL THIS MORNING AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND LIFT FROM THE
UPPER JET MOVE THROUGH. GOING BY THE DNR 00Z SOUNDING...THE BEST
MOISTURE IS ABOVE 700 MB AND REALITY IS SUPPORTING THAT. SO FAR
VISIBILITIES/OBSERVATIONS AND CAMERAS SHOW LITTLE IF ANY
ACCUMULATION...EVEN UNDER THE MOST INTENSE BAND THAT IS ALONG THE
KANSAS AND NEBRASKA BORDER. TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT SPREADS ARE
LARGE...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH WHERE THE RADAR SAYS THE MOST INTENSE
PRECIPITATION IS. MOST OF THE MODELS SAY THAT MEASURABLE SHOULD BE
OCCURRING AT THIS TIME WITH RUC HAVING THE LEAST MEASURABLE AND
LOOKING THE BEST AT THIS TIME.
RIGHT REAR QUADRANT SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA BY 12Z. 7-5H
SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO BE ENTERING THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA AT THIS TIME. SOME PV MOVES ACROSS EARLY WITH THE BRUNT OF IT
NORTH. DOWNGLIDE ALSO MOVES IN RATHER QUICKLY THIS MORNING. WILL
CONTINUE TO WATCH TRENDS FOR CHANGES BUT PLAN ON TAKING THE
MEASURABLE OUT AND HAVE FLURRIES OVER MOST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING
WITH MAYBE A LITTLE LINGERING IN THE FAR EAST INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON.
QUESTION THEN BECOMES HOW FAST WE CLEAR OUT AND ITS AFFECT ON HIGH
TEMPERATURES. STRONG JET ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH DOES
NOT GET CLOSE TO THE AREA UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY. BASED ON
SATELLITE...WE SHOULD CLEAR OUT RATHER QUICKLY WITH THE MODELS
LOOKING LIKE THEY ARE HANGING ONTO CLOUDS A LITTLE TOO LONG.
CURRENTLY TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING A LITTLE WARMER THAN DEPICTED
BUT CLEARING AND TEMPERATURES UPSTREAM SUPPORT MINS GETTING NEAR
WHAT IS CALLED FOR. MODEL GUIDANCE IS SIMILAR IN ITS DEPICTION AND
MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON LATEST TRENDS/GUIDANCE.
ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM AS IT
EXITS. LOOKS LIKE WILL HAVE GOOD SUBSIDENCE AND ADIABATIC LAPSE
RATES. SO IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF AT LEAST
BREEZY AND GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON BUT DO NOT SEE ANYTHING
GETTING OUT OF HAND.
JET AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT...AND AFFECTS THE
NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA BY 12Z. THAT AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
WILL INCREASE THE CLOUDS AFTER 06Z. NEXT QUESTION WILL BE HOW FAST
THE SURFACE MOVES THROUGH AND HOW FAST DO THE WINDS INCREASE. LIKE
THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER EVOLUTION AND THINK THE GFS IS TOO FAST. AT
THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT EARLY...
ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST AND THEN REMAIN STEADY AFTER THAT.
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE JET REMAINS
NEAR OR OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. SOME DIFFERENCE IN THE AMOUNT
OF CLOUD COVER WITH MOST OF THE MODELS SHOWING A MOSTLY SUNNY TO
A PARTLY SUNNY DAY. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE IN THIS FLOW...CLOUDS
MAY BE A LITTLE MORE THAN CURRENTLY THINK. SHOULD START OFF WITH
DOWNSLOPE WINDS BUT THEN THEY SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AS LEE TROUGH
STRENGTHENS. MODELS DO NOT LOOK AS STRONG ON THE WINDS AS YESTERDAY
AS MIXING AND GRADIENT ARE NOT AS STRONG AS PREVIOUSLY DEPICTED.
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE IN THE EAST. SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE DEPICTED
MAXES. THE 06Z NAM HAS COOLED THINGS OFF A LITTLE FROM 00Z. AT THIS
TIME...WILL TREND TOWARD THE WARMER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE.
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...COMPLEX JET SETUP BEGINS DURING THE DAY.
NORTHERN STREAM REMAINS WELL NORTHWEST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY.
HOWEVER...LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF A SOUTHERN JET DEVELOPS OR
STRENGTHENS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. THERE LOOKS TO BE SOME INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS IN THE
AFTERNOON. CONSIDERING WHAT THE JET IS DOING AND THE STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...LIKE WHAT THE NAM AND ECMWF ARE SHOWING WITH A
STRENGTHENING AND FURTHER WEST LEE TROUGH. THIS MEANS LESS OF A
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT AND IF MODELS ARE CORRECT MORE OF AN EASTERLY
COMPONENT AS THE DAY WHERES ON. SO WILL TREND TOWARD THE COOLER
SIDE OF GUIDANCE.
AS A SIDE NOTE...DUE TO A MORE EASTERLY WIND AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS...
BELIEVE SHOULD NOT SEE ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS DESPITE THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES.
BULLER
FOR THE PERIOD SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY FROM BASE OF WEST COAST MEAN
TROUGH. TRACK OF THE UPPER SYSTEM AND MOISTURE PROFILES SUGGEST FROPA
WILL BE DRY. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT SOMETIME ON SATURDAY. COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW ON
SUNDAY...LOW TO MIDDLE 40S FOR HIGHS...WHICH IS AROUND 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. RETURN FLOW GETS UNDER WAY FOR MONDAY UNDER SHORTWAVE
RIDGING ALOFT WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL AND CONTINUED
DRY. REMNANTS OF WEST COAST SYSTEM COMES ACROSS SOUTHERN ROCKIES ON
TUESDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF MAINLY RAIN...BEST CHANCES WILL BE
SOUTH.
JK
THANKS TO ALL THAT COLLABORATED.
&&
.AVIATION...
1047 PM MST TUE NOV 15 2011
CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE WITH CEILINGS BECOMING LOWER AS A FAST
MOVING DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS OVERNIGHT.
CONDITIONS WILL START OUT VFR TONIGHT...BUT WILL LIKELY SEE A DROP
TO MVFR AS CEILINGS LOWER BETWEEN 09 AND 17Z AT KGLD. THERE WILL
ALSO BE THE POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT SNOW MAINLY BETWEEN 09 AND 14 Z
AT KGLD. KMCK WILL SEE A DROP TO MVFR AFTER 11Z THAT CONTINUES
THROUGH 19Z. LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE AT KMCK, BUT IT SEEMS
SLIGHTLY LESS LIKELY THAN KGLD AND LEFT IT OUT. CEILINGS WILL RISE
AGAIN WITH A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS AS WINDS TURN NORTHWESTERLY
AND BECOME GUSTY AFTER ABOUT 19Z AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE OUT
OF THE AREA. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND TURN SOUTHWESTERLY AFTER 00Z
ALONG WITH SKIES CLEARING OUT.
LOCKHART
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
427 AM EST WED NOV 16 2011
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
EARLY TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING LATE
THURSDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE MID ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
NUDGE NORTH THIS MORNING...ALLOWING FOR SW WARM AND MOIST FLOW TO
CONTINUE OVER THE LOCAL AREA. CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND DECENT MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...WITH SOME
BREAKS POSSIBLE ESP TO THE S. PRECIP CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN
VIRGINIA IS EXPECTED TO CLIP NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA LATER
THIS MORNING. LOWER CHANCES FOR RAIN FURTHER S WHERE THE BEST FORCING
AND DEEP MOISTURE WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND A DEVELOPING SFC
WAVE (IN RESPONSE TO A POTENT S/W OVER THE TN VALLEY EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE SW UPPER FLOW) WILL ALSO INCREASE THE RAIN POTENTIAL
STARTING LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS IN THE FORECAST...W/ STRONG LOW-TOPPED
CONVECTION (LOW CAPE AND HIGH SHEAR) POSSIBLE...ESP FOR NE NORTH
CAROLINA AND EXTREME SE VIRGINIA (SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK) WHERE
INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATEST. MAIN THREAT WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS
(40 KT OF 0-3 KM SHEAR AND DCAPE>1000 J/KG). ALSO...SOME STORMS
MAY EXHIBIT ROTATION AS RUC AND NAM BOTH PROGGING 0-1 KM
HELICITIES GREATER THAN 200 M2/S2. EXPECTING ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS
AGAIN TODAY DUE TO THE COLD FROPA BEING DELAYED UNTIL
TONIGHT...HIGHS IN THE L-M70S OVER THE NW AND M-U70S OVER THE SE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BEST PROBABILITY FOR RAIN (CATEGORICAL POPS) COMES TONIGHT DUE TO A
COMBO OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND STRONG LOW/MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED W/ COLD FRONT. RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES AND SOME
AREAS MAY RECEIVE OVER AN INCH TOTAL W/ THIS SYSTEM (ESP NORTHERN
AREAS). NO SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED ATTM DUE TO FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE BEING VERY HIGH. THE RAIN TAPERS OFF FROM W TO E
THUR MIDDAY/AFTERNOON. DECREASING CLOUDS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY
AND NIGHT. COOL N FLOW AT THE SFC WILL ONLY YIELD HIGHS IN THE
L-M50S THUR.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC FRI LEADING TO
DRY WX AND SUNNY SKIES. TEMPS WILL ONLY MAX OUT IN THE U40S-L50S AFTER
A CHILLY START IN THE U20S-M30S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SHOWING A SOUTHWEST
UPPER LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPING SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES
ANCHORED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH SUNDAY. SOME
CLOUDINESS IS POSSIBLE IN NORTHEAST NC AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST VA ON
SATURDAY AS TROPICAL MOISTURE ROTATES AROUND A MID-LEVEL HIGH OFF
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST AND MOVES NEAR THIS AREA. OTHERWISE...A
DRYING AND WARMING TREND IS ANTICIPATED UNDER THIS FLOW
REGIME...WITH HIGH TEMPS REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE 60S BY SUNDAY.
LOWS SHOULD BE NEAR FREEZING SATURDAY MORNING DUE TO PRIME COOLING
CONDITIONS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH VERY LIGHT WINDS...THEN
REBOUND TOWARD THE LOW 50S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS CLOUDS INCREASE
AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER DISTURBANCE.
BY LATE SUNDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SAG SOUTHWARD AND
STALL OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. 12Z MODEL RUNS
TODAY ARE HINTING AT SLOWING THE SOUTHERN MOVEMENT OF THIS BOUNDARY
UNTIL LATE MONDAY...WHICH WOULD DELAY THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION
UNTIL THAT TIMEFRAME. HAVE TRENDED THE ONGOING FORECAST TOWARD
SLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT UNTIL LATE MONDAY...WITH
PRECIPITATION BEING INTRODUCED LATE SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD FRNT WILL APPROACH THE AREA THRU THIS MORNG...THEN DROP ACRS
THE REGION THIS AFTN THRU TNGT. CIGS/VSBYS WILL QUICKLY LWR TO
MVFR THEN IFR (LIFR?) DURING THIS MORNG WITH -DZ OR SCTD -SHRAS
MOVNG INTO NRN AND WRN AREAS. CIGS/VSBYS WILL LIKELY LIFT TO MVFR
AND VFR CONDITIONS LATER THIS MORNG AND AFTN...AS SW WNDS INCRS IN
ADVANCE OF FRNT...WITH ISLTD TO SCTD SHRAS AHEAD OF AND ALNG THE
FRNTL BNDRY INTO THIS EVENG. DURING THIS EVENG INTO THU
MORNG...IFR (LIFR?) CONDITIONS WITH -RA EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRNT.
VFR AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN THU AFTN THRU SUN.
&&
.MARINE...
HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA HEADLINE FOR ALL THE WTRS THRU LATE THU
NGT...AS NNW WNDS (CAA) WILL CONTINUE AT 15 TO 25 KT AND
WAVES/SEAS WILL STAY UP. SE OR S WNDS 10 KT OR LESS ERLY THIS
MORNG...WILL BECOME SW AND INCRS TO 15 TO 20 KT THIS AFTN IN
ADVANCE OF COLD FRNT. CUD BE GUSTS TO 25 KT. WNDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE NW OR N THIS EVENG INTO ERLY THU MORNG BEHIND THE FRNT. THIS
CAA SURGE WILL THEN CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THU AND THU NGT.
MORE BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED FRI INTO SUN...AS HI
PRES BLDS OVR THE WTRS FM THE W.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR NOV 16TH (WED):
RIC...85 IN 1955
ORF...83 IN 1955
SBY...78 IN 1928
ECG...85 IN 1993
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
ANZ630>634-650-652-654-656-658.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG
CLIMATE...AKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
400 AM EST WED NOV 16 2011
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
EARLY TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING LATE
THURSDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
WEAK STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE MID ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
NUDGE NORTH THIS MORNING...ALLOWING FOR SW WARM AND MOIST FLOW TO
CONTINUE OVER THE LOCAL AREA. CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND DECENT MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...WITH SOME
BREAKS POSSIBLE ESP TO THE S. PRECIP CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN
VIRGINIA IS EXPECTED TO CLIP NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA LATER
THIS MORNING. LOWER CHANCES FOR RAIN FURTHER S WHERE THE BEST FORCING
AND DEEP MOISTURE WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND A DEVELOPING SFC
WAVE (IN RESPONSE TO A POTENT S/W OVER THE TN VALLEY EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE SW UPPER FLOW) WILL ALSO INCREASE THE RAIN POTENTIAL
STARTING LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS IN THE FORECAST...W/ STRONG LOW-TOPPED
CONVECTION (LOW CAPE AND HIGH SHEAR) POSSIBLE...ESP FOR NE NORTH
CAROLINA AND EXTREME SE VIRGINIA (SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK) WHERE
INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATEST. MAIN THREAT WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS
(40 KT OF 0-3 KM SHEAR AND DCAPE>1000 J/KG). ALSO...SOME STORMS
MAY EXHIBIT ROTATION AS RUC AND NAM BOTH PROGGING 0-1 KM
HELICITIES GREATER THAN 200 M2/S2. EXPECTING ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS
AGAIN TODAY DUE TO THE COLD FROPA BEING DELAYED UNTIL
TONIGHT...HIGHS IN THE L-M70S OVER THE NW AND M-U70S OVER THE SE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BEST PROBABILITY FOR RAIN (CATEGORICAL POPS) COMES TONIGHT DUE TO A
COMBO OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND STRONG LOW/MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED W/ COLD FRONT. RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES AND SOME
AREAS MAY RECEIVE OVER AN INCH TOTAL W/ THIS SYSTEM (ESP NORTHERN
AREAS). NO SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED ATTM DUE TO FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE BEING VERY HIGH. THE RAIN TAPERS OFF FROM W TO E
THUR MIDDAY/AFTERNOON. DECREASING CLOUDS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY
AND NIGHT. COOL N FLOW AT THE SFC WILL ONLY YIELD HIGHS IN THE
L-M50S THUR.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC FRI LEADING TO
DRY WX AND SUNNY SKIES. TEMPS WILL ONLY MAX OUT IN THE U40S-L50S AFTER
A CHILLY START IN THE U20S-M30S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SHOWING A SOUTHWEST
UPPER LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPING SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES
ANCHORED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH SUNDAY. SOME
CLOUDINESS IS POSSIBLE IN NORTHEAST NC AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST VA ON
SATURDAY AS TROPICAL MOISTURE ROTATES AROUND A MID-LEVEL HIGH OFF
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST AND MOVES NEAR THIS AREA. OTHERWISE...A
DRYING AND WARMING TREND IS ANTICIPATED UNDER THIS FLOW
REGIME...WITH HIGH TEMPS REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE 60S BY SUNDAY.
LOWS SHOULD BE NEAR FREEZING SATURDAY MORNING DUE TO PRIME COOLING
CONDITIONS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH VERY LIGHT WINDS...THEN
REBOUND TOWARD THE LOW 50S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS CLOUDS INCREASE
AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER DISTURBANCE.
BY LATE SUNDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SAG SOUTHWARD AND
STALL OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. 12Z MODEL RUNS
TODAY ARE HINTING AT SLOWING THE SOUTHERN MOVEMENT OF THIS BOUNDARY
UNTIL LATE MONDAY...WHICH WOULD DELAY THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION
UNTIL THAT TIMEFRAME. HAVE TRENDED THE ONGOING FORECAST TOWARD
SLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT UNTIL LATE MONDAY...WITH
PRECIPITATION BEING INTRODUCED LATE SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD FRNT WILL APPROACH THE AREA THRU THIS MORNG...THEN DROP ACRS
THE REGION THIS AFTN THRU TNGT. CIGS/VSBYS WILL QUICKLY LWR TO
MVFR THEN IFR (LIFR?) DURING THIS MORNG WITH -DZ OR SCTD -SHRAS
MOVNG INTO NRN AND WRN AREAS. CIGS/VSBYS WILL LIKELY LIFT TO MVFR
AND VFR CONDITIONS LATER THIS MORNG AND AFTN...AS SW WNDS INCRS IN
ADVANCE OF FRNT...WITH ISLTD TO SCTD SHRAS AHEAD OF AND ALNG THE
FRNTL BNDRY INTO THIS EVENG. DURING THIS EVENG INTO THU
MORNG...IFR (LIFR?) CONDITIONS WITH -RA EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRNT.
VFR AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN THU AFTN THRU SUN.
&&
.MARINE...
LATEST OBS REFLECTING TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE SE COAST AND THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY
PUSHING SE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. THIS
TIGHTENING GRADIENT HAS RESULTED IN SW WINDS 10-15 KT OVER BAY AND
~15-20KT OVER ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN SUB-
SCA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WED WITH THE BUILDING
SOUTH FLOW FROM SW TO NE WED MORN AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT
FROM THE NW...WHICH DROPS ACROSS THE REGION WED EVENING. SCA FLAGS
HAVE BEEN HOISTED FOR ENTIRE MARINE AREA W/PRE-FRONTAL SW FLOW
WED AFTN...CONTINUING WITH THE POST-FRONTAL CAA SURGE THU MORNING
INTO THU AFTN. MORE BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY LATE IN
THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS
FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER...SCA`S FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS MAY BE NEEDED
INTO THE WEEKEND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH GUIDANCE INDICATING
POTENTIAL FOR SEAS TO LINGER IN THE 5-6 FOOT RANGE COURTESY OF
ONSHORE FLOW/LINGERING E-SE SWELL.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR NOV 16TH (WED):
RIC...85 IN 1955
ORF...83 IN 1955
SBY...78 IN 1928
ECG...85 IN 1993
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
ANZ630>634-650-652-654-656-658.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
347 AM CST WED NOV 16 2011
.DISCUSSION...
A COLD WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW OF AIR WILL COVER THE REGION INTO
THURSDAY. A SHORT WAVE OVER NORTH DAKOTA WILL PROGRESS TO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY TONIGHT. SOME CLOUDINESS OVER CENTRAL
MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI EARLY THIS MORNING WILL PART FOR A TIME
BEFORE ANOTHER SURGE OF LOW CLOUDINESS ARRIVES FOR THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. OUR LOCAL MODEL AND THE RUC PAINT SOME LIGHT
ECHOES ACROSS CENTRAL MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS...SO KEPT THE MENTION OF FLURRIES TO THESE
AREAS. THERE SHOULD BE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE ACROSS SOUTHERN MN
TODAY. THE MIX-DOWN TD TOOL POINTS TO DEW POINT LOWERING TO AROUND
5 DEG C DURING THE AFTERNOON. WE ARE CURRENTLY SEEING SOME SINGLE
DIGIT DEW POINTS NEAR THE SD/NE EARLY THIS MORNING. THE ARW/NMM
WRFS ALSO INDICATE DINGLE DIGIT DEW POINT IN THE SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON. HENCE...BLENDED IN THE MIX DOWN DPS WITH CONSENSUS FOR
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. TRENDED A FEW DEGREES HIGHER ON
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA VERSUS
MET/MAV MOS DUE TO MORE SUNSHINE AND WHAT THE MIX DOWN MAX T WAS
SHOWING.
FLURRIES/CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT OVER THE NORTHERN AND
EASTERN CWA AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN LATE IN THE NIGHT. THE RIDGE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA ON THURSDAY WITH FLOW BECOMING MORE
SOUTHERLY. IT WILL STILL BE A COOL DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 30S.
AS THE RIDGE MOVES EAST THURSDAY NIGHT...A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP
AND MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA. ONLY SOME CLOUDS EXPECTED WITH
THE WARM FRONT. THIS WILL LEAD TO A WARMER FRIDAY WITH HIGHS
REACHING WELL INTO THE 40S IN MOST AREAS WITH SOME 50S IN THE
SOUTH.
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND PRECIPITATION EVENT FOR SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT REMAINS ON TRACK. THE GEM AND ECMWF ARE IN STEP
WITH THIS SYSTEM WHILE THE GFS LAGS BY ABOUT 6 HOURS. THE GFS
ENSEMBLE IS EVEN SLOWER BY ABOUT ANOTHER 6 HOURS. STILL EXPECT A
LOW TO TRACK FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA SATURDAY MORNING TO EASTERN WI
BY SATURDAY NIGHT. ALL SOLUTIONS INDICATE THE LOW SLOWLY FILLING
DURING THIS PERIOD WHICH IS NOTE GOOD FOR A HEAVY SNOW EVENT. WE
ALSO CONTINUE TO SEE AN OPEN WAVE ALOFT WHICH SPEAKS FOR THE
QUICKNESS WITH THIS SYSTEM. LOOKING AT SOME OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
FEATURES SHOWS THE H5 HEIGHT FALL TRACK FROM YELLOW MEDICINE COUNTY
TO BURNETT COUNTY. THE -15 DEG C OMEGA IS ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THIS
TRACK WITH THE DEPTH OF THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE BEING ABOUT
1100M. THE WARM POCKET AT H2 ALSO TRACKS ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED
AXIS WITH 10 DEG OF WARMING NOTED.
THE 295K THETA SURFACE PLACES 700 MB ABOUT IN THIS GENERAL AREA AS
WELL WITH PLENTY OF SATURATION AND ADIABATIC OMEGA NOTED TO THE
NORTH AND WEST. THE MIX RATIO CONTINUES TO RUN BETWEEN 2 AND 3
G/KG AND IS ALIGNED WITH THE -FN VECTOR DIVERGENCE. THIS ALL POINTS
TO A BAND OF 4 TO LOCALLY 6 INCHES FROM WEST CENTRAL MN ON
NORTHEAST TO DULUTH AND HAYWARD. THE CARIBOU SNOW TOOL USING THE GFS
AGREES PRETTY WELL WITH THIS SCENARIO. ALSO INTERESTING IS THE
16/00Z CIPS DATA...BASED ON THE TOP 15 ANALOGS...WHICH SHOWS MEAN
SNOWFALL OF 4 TO 6 FROM WEST CENTRAL MN THROUGH THE ARROWHEAD AND
FAR NORTHERN AREAS OF WI WITH 2 TO 3 INCHES FROM SOUTHWEST MN
THROUGH THE METRO AND ACROSS MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL WI.
IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...A RATHER SUBSTANTIAL HIGH
WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH DRY
WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES OCCURRING.
&&
.AVIATION... /06Z TAF ISSUANCE/
BKN040 WILL AFFECT MOST TAFS BUT RWF FOR A TIME DURING THE NEXT 4-6
HOURS AS NW FLOW BRINGS DOWN CLOUDS IN WAKE OF STRONG VORT NOW VCNTY
OF DULUTH. UPSTREAM VORT IN SASK WILL MOVE ACROSS N MN ON WEDNESDAY
SENDING ANOTHER CDFNT ACROSS AREA WITH MORE VFR CLDS. GRADIENT
REMAINS FAIRLY STRONG OVERNITE...SO WINDS SHUD REMAIN IN 12 TO 15 KT
RANGE. WNW WINDS BECOMING GUSTY AGAIN DURING THE DAY WED WITH GUSTS
20 TO 25 KTS BY AROUND 18Z.
KMSP...SHUD SEE A PERIOD OF BKN040 BETWEEN 06Z-10Z AS CLOUDS SKIRT
ACROSS CENTRAL MN. GUSTINESS HAS SLOWLY BEEN DIMINISHING LAST
COUPLE OF HOURS AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE OVERNITE...SUSTAINED
WINDS SHUD REMAIN IN THE 12-15 KT RANGE MOST OF NITE. GUSTS 20-25
KT RETURNING BY 18Z WED.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
RAH/BAP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
333 AM CST WED NOV 16 2011
.DISCUSSION...
A COLD WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW OF AIR WILL COVER THE REGION INTO
THURSDAY. A SHORT WAVE OVER NORTH DAKOTA WILL PROGRESS TO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY TONIGHT. SOME CLOUDINESS OVER CENTRAL
MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI EARLY THIS MORNING WILL PART FOR A TIME
BEFORE ANOTHER SURGE OF LOW CLOUDINESS ARRIVES FOR THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. OUR LOCAL MODEL AND THE RUC PAINT SOME LIGHT
ECHOES ACROSS CENTRAL MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS...SO KEPT THE MENTION OF FLURRIES TO THESE
AREAS. THERE SHOULD BE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE ACROSS SOUTHERN MN
TODAY. THE MIX-DOWN TD TOOL POINTS TO DEW POINT LOWERING TO AROUND
5 DEG C DURING THE AFTERNOON. WE ARE CURRENTLY SEEING SOME SINGLE
DIGIT DEW POINTS NEAR THE SD/NE EARLY THIS MORNING. THE ARW/NMM
WRFS ALSO INDICATE DINGLE DIGIT DEW POINT IN THE SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON. HENCE...BLENDED IN THE MIX DOWN DPS WITH CONSENSUS FOR
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. TRENDED A FEW DEGREES HIGHER ON
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA VERSUS
MET/MAV MOS DUE TO MORE SUNSHINE AND WHAT THE MIX DOWN MAX T WAS
SHOWING.
FLURRIES/CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT OVER THE NORTHERN AND
EASTERN CWA AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN LATE IN THE NIGHT. THE RIDGE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA ON THURSDAY WITH FLOW BECOMING MORE
SOUTHERLY. IT WILL STILL BE A COOL DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 30S.
AS THE RIDGE MOVES EAST THURSDAY NIGHT...A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP
AND MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA. ONLY SOME CLOUDS EXPECTED WITH
THE WARM FRONT. THIS WILL LEAD TO A WARMER FRIDAY WITH HIGHS
REACHING WELL INTO THE 40S IN MOST AREAS WITH SOME 50S IN THE
SOUTH.
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND PRECIPITATION EVENT FOR SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT REMAINS ON TRACK. THE GEM AND ECMWF ARE IN STEP
WITH THIS SYSTEM WHILE THE GFS LAGS BY ABOUT 6 HOURS. THE GFS
ENSEMBLE IS EVEN SLOWER BY ABOUT ANOTHER 6 HOURS. STILL EXPECT A
LOW TO TRACK FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA SATURDAY MORNING TO EASTERN WI
BY SATURDAY NIGHT. ALL SOLUTIONS INDICATE THE LOW SLOWLY FILLING
DURING THIS PERIOD WHICH IS NOTE GOOD FOR A HEAVY SNOW EVENT. WE
ALSO CONTINUE TO SEE AN OPEN WAVE ALOFT WHICH SPEAKS FOR THE
QUICKNESS WITH THIS SYSTEM. LOOKING AT SOME OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
FEATURES SHOWS THE H5 HEIGHT FALL TRACK FROM YELLOW MEDICINE COUNTY
TO BURNETT COUNTY. THE -15 DEG C OMEGA IS ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THIS
TRACK WITH THE DEPTH OF THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE BEING ABOUT
1100M. THE WARM POCKET AT H2 ALSO TRACKS ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED
AXIS WITH 10 DEG OF WARMING NOTED.
THE 295K THETA SURFACE PLACES 700 MB ABOUT IN THIS GENERAL AREA AS
WELL WITH PLENTY OF SATURATION AND ADIABATIC OMEGA NOTED TO THE
NORTH AND WEST. THE MIX RATIO CONTINUES TO RUN BETWEEN 2 AND 3
G/KG AND IS ALIGNED WITH THE -FN VECTOR DIVERGENCE. THIS ALL POINTS
TO A BAND OF 4 TO LOCALLY 6 INCHES FROM WEST CENTRAL MN ON
NORTHEAST TO DULUTH AND HAYWARD. THE CARIBOU SNOW TOOL USING THE GFS
AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO. SNOW AMOUNTS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THIS
AREA WILL BE MORE IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE AS IT CURRENTLY STANDS.
THE SMALLER TOTALS WOULD BE FROM ALBERT LEA TO EAU CLAIRE WHERE
RAIN WILL DOMINATE FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
A RATHER SUBSTANTIAL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD OVER THE
REGION FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH DRY WEATHER AND BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES OCCURRING.
&&
.AVIATION... /06Z TAF ISSUANCE/
BKN040 WILL AFFECT MOST TAFS BUT RWF FOR A TIME DURING THE NEXT 4-6
HOURS AS NW FLOW BRINGS DOWN CLOUDS IN WAKE OF STRONG VORT NOW VCNTY
OF DULUTH. UPSTREAM VORT IN SASK WILL MOVE ACROSS N MN ON WEDNESDAY
SENDING ANOTHER CDFNT ACROSS AREA WITH MORE VFR CLDS. GRADIENT
REMAINS FAIRLY STRONG OVERNITE...SO WINDS SHUD REMAIN IN 12 TO 15 KT
RANGE. WNW WINDS BECOMING GUSTY AGAIN DURING THE DAY WED WITH GUSTS
20 TO 25 KTS BY AROUND 18Z.
KMSP...SHUD SEE A PERIOD OF BKN040 BETWEEN 06Z-10Z AS CLOUDS SKIRT
ACROSS CENTRAL MN. GUSTINESS HAS SLOWLY BEEN DIMINISHING LAST
COUPLE OF HOURS AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE OVERNITE...SUSTAINED
WINDS SHUD REMAIN IN THE 12-15 KT RANGE MOST OF NITE. GUSTS 20-25
KT RETURNING BY 18Z WED.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
RAH/BAP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
300 AM EST WED NOV 16 2011
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL SLIDE EASTWARD
BRINGING SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING DURING
THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER FRONT WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 3:00 AM WEDNESDAY...MORNING LOW STRATUS WILL BURN OFF DURING THE
MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS. PATCHY SEA FOG OFFSHORE MAY ENCROACH ONTO
THE BEACHES AND NEARBY ENVIRONS FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY. VISIBILITIES MAY BE REDUCED TO A MILE OR LESS IN A FEW PLACES.
SOME HIGHER CLOUDS WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE DAY. AS WE MIX DRIER
AIR TO THE SURFACE...SKIES WILL BECOME AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY. WINDS
ALOFT WILL BE SW AT 30 TO 40 KT AND AS WE MIX TO A DEPTH OF AROUND 3
KFT...WE WILL EXPERIENCE WIND GUSTS OF NEAR 30 MPH LATE MORNING AND
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVE.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE NW TODAY. A SERIES
OF SURFACE LOWS WILL TRAVERSE THIS BOUNDARY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO REACH THE I-95 CORRIDOR DURING THE LATE EVE AND THEN MOVE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF THU...AND
FINALLY OFF THE COAST DURING THU MORNING. DEEP SW FLOW WILL ALLOW
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO RISE TO AROUND ONE AND A HALF INCHES.
SUFFICIENT FORCING TO GENERATE PRECIPITATION MAY NOT ARRIVE TO WELL
AFTER DARK.
LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 50 KT OVERNIGHT. MODELS ARE
INDICATING AN INVERSION AROUND 1400 FT TONIGHT AND THIS WILL MAKE IT
DIFFICULT FOR HIGHER WINDS ALOFT TO REACH THE GROUND. HOWEVER...ONE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY BE MOVING ALONG AND N OF OUR INLAND
ZONES OVERNIGHT. BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR OR OVER
60 KT DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS...HIGHEST NEAR
THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW. LCLS WILL BE DROPPING DURING THIS
TIME. THIS SUPPORTS AN ISOLATED RISK FOR TORNADOES. SPC HAS A
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER...INCLUDING TORNADOES. CURRENTLY THE RISK AREA IS ACROSS THE
PEE DEE REGION OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND FROM NEAR FAIR BLUFF TO BURGAW
IN NORTH CAROLINA AND POINTS NORTH. THIS AREA MAY SHIFT THROUGH THE
DAY...BUT AT THIS TIME IT IS REASONABLE TO EXPECT SOME RISK OF
ISOLATED TORNADOES OR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE
AREA.
POPS WILL BE HIGHEST LATE TONIGHT...CATEGORICAL NW ZONES TO LIKELY
AS YOU APPROACH THE COAST WITH CONVECTION LINGERING ALONG THE COAST
THROUGH THU MORNING. CURRENT PRECIPITATION FORECAST INCLUDES AMOUNTS
IN THE ONE-HALF INCH TO ONE-INCH RANGE...BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
HIGHLY VARIABLE AS YOU MOVE FROM ONE COMMUNITY TO THE NEXT.
FORECAST
TEMPS WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S EXCEPT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE THE COMPARATIVELY COOL
MARINE ENVIRONMENT WILL KEEP READINGS IN THE LOWER TO PERHAPS MID
70S. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE BALMY 70S FOR MOST OF THE EVE WITH
MINIMUMS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA PROJECTED TO FALL ONLY TO THE LOWER
TO MID 60S BY SUNRISE THU.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING/...
AS OF 3:00 AM WEDNESDAY...FORECAST MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE PROGRESSION OF
THE COLD FRONT EVER SO SLIGHTLY AND HAVE THEREFORE EXTENDED POPS
ACROSS THE BOARD INTO THE LATE MORNING HOURS...ESPECIALLY COASTAL
AREAS. OTHERWISE INTERESTING TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY HIGHS
AS THE MAV NUMBERS SHOW NO WARMING IN WILMINGTON WITH LITTLE
ELSEWHERE. WITH THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND COLD AIR ADVECTION NOT THAT
IMPRESSIVE...DID ADD A DEGREE OR TWO TO THE MAV NUMBERS. FOR FRIDAY
MORNING WINDS DECOUPLE INLAND WHILE REMAINING UP SLIGHTLY ALONG THE
COAST AND ADJUSTED MOS NUMBERS ACCORDINGLY. COOL DAY FRIDAY WITH
MOST AREAS REMAINING BELOW 60.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3:00 AM WEDNESDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST IS RATHER UNEVENTFUL AS THE
PATTERN QUICKLY EVOLVES FROM ZONAL TO RIDGING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST...SIMILAR TO THE PATTERN WE HAVE EXPERIENCED THE PAST
FEW DAYS. HPC IS FAVORING A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF AND UKMET.
REALLY THE ONLY FORECAST CHALLENGES INVOLVE LIGHT COASTAL TROUGH
QPF SATURDAY AND A BACKDOOR FRONT TUESDAY. AS FOR THE
FORMER...MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST AS THE MODELS ARE USUALLY
OVERDONE WITH THE QPF AND IN REALITY IT IS GENERALLY A STRATUS
LAYER. REGARDING THE FRONT...THE LATEST GFS IS MORE BULLISH IN
PUSHING THE FRONT SOUTH WITH THE EFFECTS ONLY BEING AN AIRMASS
CHANGE. THE 0000 UTC ECMWF HAS BACKED OFF A FURTHER SOUTH
SOLUTION. OTHERWISE...AS WE JUST EXPERIENCED...ABOVE NORMAL TO
DOWN RIGHT BALMY CONDITIONS FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE IFR CEILINGS OR LOWER WILL DOMINATE
THROUGH THE FIRST 6 TO 9 HOURS AT ALL THE TERMINALS. VISIBILITY WILL
FLUCTUATE FROM MVFR TO IFR OR LOWER IN FOG.
EARLIER LIGHT RAIN AT KILM HAS ENDED AS SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PULL
AWAY FROM THE CAPE FEAR REGION. PATCHY SEA FOG WILL CONTINUE
OFFSHORE AND MAY COME ONTO THE COAST BRINGING BOUTS OF LOWER
VISIBILITY TO THE COASTAL TERMINALS BEFORE WINDS VEER MORE SOLIDLY
SW BY/AFTER SUNRISE.
CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO VFR MID-MORNING THROUGH MIDDAY.
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WILL CREATE GUSTY
SW WINDS...18-22KTS AT ALL TAF SITES LATE MORNING AND THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVE.
TOWARD THE END OF THE VALID PERIOD AND THEREAFTER...CONDITIONS WILL
SLOWLY BEGIN TO DETERIORATE AGAIN AS A COLD FRONT BRINGS SHRA AND
ISOLATED TSRA LATE TONIGHT AND THU MORNING.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING COULD CREATE ISOLATED IFR IN TSRA. EXPECT VFR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH LOWERED CONFIDENCE FOR POTENTIAL IFR
FOG/STRATUS SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1055 PM TUESDAY...THE SEA FOG THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ILM
WATERS. WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE PATCHY/AREAS OF SEA FOG ACROSS THE
ILM WATERS THROUGH OR JUST AFTER DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. WITH THE LATEST
AVAILABLE SST MAP OF THE ILM WATERS USING AVHRR DATA FOR THE 2 DAYS
ENDING ON NOV 14TH...2 NOTEWORTHY PATCHES OF COOLER SHELF WATERS IN
THE LOW 60S WERE SHOWN. ONE PATCH BETWEEN SURF CITY AND CAPE
FEAR...AND OUT TO NEARLY THE FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY...41013. AND THE
2ND PATCH...LYING ACROSS THE WATERS BETWEEN NORTH MYRTLE BEACH TO
SOUTH SANTEE RIVER. THIS 2ND ONE NOT NEARLY AS PRONOUNCED AS THE
1ST. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT
ACROSS THESE COOLER SHELF WATERS OVERNIGHT INTO WED. THIS WILL
RESULT WITH AN INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR SEA FOG TO DEVELOP AND AFFECT
THE ILM WATERS...PARTICULAR ACROSS THOSE COOL WATERS. A FEW LOCAL
SURF CAMS HAVE SHOWCASED THE EXISTENCE OF THE SEA FOG. AS SYNOPTIC
WINDS SLOWLY VEER FROM 190-230 OVERNIGHT INTO WED...THE THREAT FOR
SEA FOG WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH OR AT LEAST KEEP THE FOG FROM
ADVECTING ONSHORE/INLAND. WILL INDICATE VSBY REDUCING TO 1NM OR
LESS. IF ANY RECEIVED REPORTS AND/OR OBS INDICATE 1/2 NM OR LESS
VSBYS...WILL THEN UPDATE AND ADVERTISE DENSE FOG. A MARINE WEATHER
STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED TO HIGHLIGHT THE INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR
SEA FOG.
HAVE MAINTAINED THE WINDS AND SEAS FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...WITH THE LATEST HRRR KEEPING WINDS ON THE LOWER SIDE OF
MODEL GUIDANCE. WHICH IN TURN...PRODUCING SLIGHTLY LOWER SEAS THAN
ORIGINALLY THOUGHT.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3:00 AM WEDNESDAY...MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE WHEN TO
CONCLUDE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LATE THURSDAY EVENING. A PERIOD OF
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
EVENING. FOR NOW WITH THE TIMING STILL OUT FOUR PERIODS...WILL NOT
TWEAK BUT ISSUE THE DISCLAIMER THE HEADLINE MAY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED
A FEW HOURS. WINDS VEER TO NORTHEASTERLY FRIDAY AND DIMINISH
SOMEWHAT TO A MANAGEABLE RANGE OF 15-20 KNOTS MAINLY TO THE LOWER
END. HIGH SEAS EARLY GET CONFINED TO THE OUTER WATERS WITH THE WIND
SHIFT AND REMAIN THERE FOR THE MOST PART. SOME FIVE TO SIX FOOTERS
MAY LINGER ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS GIVING THE FRIDAY.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3:00 AM WEDNESDAY...NORTHEAST FLOW INITIALLY WILL QUICKLY VEER TO
SOUTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AND LEAVES THE WIND FIELD TO BE
FORCED BY LOCAL EFFECTS IE...THE SEABREEZE. THIS WILL OCCUR LATE
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS WINDS DROP TO BELOW 10 KNOTS. SEAS FOLLOW A
SIMILAR TREND WITH 2-4 FEET INITIALLY DROPPING TO 2-3 FEET.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT EST THURSDAY
NIGHT FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...SGL/RJD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1222 AM EST WED NOV 16 2011
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
A COLD FRONT OVER THE MIDWEST WILL SLIDE EASTWARD BRINGING SHOWERS
AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING DURING THE
WEEKEND. A SECOND FRONT WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1045 PM TUESDAY...SPORADIC ONSHORE MOVEMENT OF PATCHY OR AREAS
OF SEA FOG WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. THIS A RESULT OF SFC WINDS
BOUNCING FROM 180-210 DEGREES. AS WINDS BECOME DOMINANT 210-230
DEGREE DIRECTION AFTER DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY...THE THREAT FOR SEA FOG
MOVING ONSHORE WILL DIMINISH GREATLY. SCATTERED -SHRA LATE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT DUE TO A WEAK LOW-MID LEVEL IMPULSE TRACKING
NE...AS WELL AS LOW LEVEL WIND SPEED CONVERGENCE FROM 15-25 KT S-SW
WINDS OFFSHORE QUICKLY DROPPING TO 10 KT OR LESS OVER THE COOLER
SHELF WATERS...AS WELL AS WEAK WIND DIRECTION CONVERGENCE FROM SW
INLAND TO S-SSW ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
AS FOR SEA FOG...THE LATEST AVAILABLE SST MAP OF THE WATERS OFF THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST USING AVHRR DATA FOR THE 2 DAYS ENDING ON NOV
14TH...INDICATED 2 PATCHES OF NOTEWORTHY COOL SHELF WATERS OFF THE
CAROLINAS...WITH 1 PATCH BETWEEN SURF CITY AND CAPE FEAR...TO NEARLY
OUT TO THE FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY...41013. AND THE SECOND PATCH
LYING ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS BETWEEN NORTH MYRTLE BEACH TO SOUTH
SANTEE RIVER. THIS 2ND ONE NOT AS PRONOUNCED AS THE 1ST. WITH SFC
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 ADVECTING ACROSS THESE COOLER
SHELF WATERS OVERNIGHT INTO WED...SEA FOG WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
AND AFFECT THE IMMEDIATE COAST BORDERING THE AFOREMENTIONED COLL
SHELF WATER AREAS. A FEW LOCAL SURF CAMS HAVE ALSO SHOWCASED THE
EXISTENCE OF THE SEA FOG AT TIMES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...A LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL SHIFT EASTWARD BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THIS WILL PROVIDE GOOD SYNOPTIC LIFT FOR THE REGION. AT THE SURFACE
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ACT AS THE LOW LEVEL LIFTING MECHANISM FOR
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. INSTABILITY IS FORECAST BY THE
MODEL TO BE VERY LOW AND THE LOW-LEVEL 0 TO 2.5 KM BULK SHEAR
MAGNITUDE REACHES ALMOST 40 KNOTS. THE LOW-LEVEL HELICITY MAXIMUM
APPEARS TO BE SHIFTING FARTHER NORTH WITH THIS MODEL RUN AND IS
RUNNING AHEAD OF THE MODEL CONVECTION...SO CONFIDENCE ON ISOLATED
TORNADOES IS NOT VERY HIGH AT THIS TIME.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH IN THE UPPER 70S INLAND
ON WEDNESDAY AND WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSAGE HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO ONLY REACH IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S ON THURSDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...COLD SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION FRI
BEFORE QUICKLY SHIFTING NORTHEAST FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. WEAK COASTAL
TROUGH DEVELOPS SAT WITH LOW LEVEL EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW
INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE LOWEST 3K FT OR SO. CURRENT FORECAST IS
DEVOID OF PRECIP HOWEVER THE INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE LATER
IN THE DAY SAT COULD PRODUCE SOME LIGHT PATCHY OF RAIN. WOULD NOT
EXPECT MUCH QPF SHOULD SOMETHING DEVELOP WITH COASTAL NC THE MOST
LIKELY AREA TO SEE SOMETHING. AT THE VERY LEAST ANTICIPATE AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER SAT INTO SUN.
COASTAL TROUGH DISSIPATES SUN AS SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF
THE AREA. ALTHOUGH DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW HELPS INCREASE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE SUN AND MON DRY MID LEVELS AND WEAK CAP...A RESULT OF
BUILDING WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE...WILL PREVENT ANY PRECIP. WEAK COLD
FRONT STALLED NORTH OF THE AREA TUE WILL TRY AND DROP SOUTH DURING
THE DAY. IF FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA DO NOT THINK IT WOULD HAVE
MUCH PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THE FRONT IS STRETCHED OUT WITH THE
DYNAMICS WELL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM WELL BELOW CLIMO AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD TO ABOVE CLIMO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE TRANSITION FROM BELOW
CLIMO TO ABOVE WILL BE QUICK...BY SAT NIGHT TEMPS SHOULD BE ABOVE
CLIMO.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE IFR CEILINGS OR LOWER WILL DOMINATE
THROUGH THE FIRST 6 TO 9 HOURS AT ALL THE TERMINALS. VISIBILITY WILL
FLUCTUATE FROM MVFR TO IFR OR LOWER IN FOG.
EARLIER LIGHT RAIN AT KILM HAS ENDED AS SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PULL
AWAY FROM THE CAPE FEAR REGION. PATCHY SEA FOG WILL CONTINUE
OFFSHORE AND MAY COME ONTO THE COAST BRINGING BOUTS OF LOWER
VISIBILITY TO THE COASTAL TERMINALS BEFORE WINDS VEER MORE SOLIDLY
SW BY/AFTER SUNRISE.
CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO VFR MID-MORNING THROUGH MIDDAY.
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WILL CREATE GUSTY
SW WINDS...18-22KTS AT ALL TAF SITES LATE MORNING AND THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVE.
TOWARD THE END OF THE VALID PERIOD AND THEREAFTER...CONDITIONS WILL
SLOWLY BEGIN TO DETERIORATE AGAIN AS A COLD FRONT BRINGS SHRA AND
ISOLATED TSRA LATE TONIGHT AND THU MORNING.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING COULD CREATE ISOLATED IFR IN TSRA. EXPECT VFR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH LOWERED CONFIDENCE FOR POTENTIAL IFR
FOG/STRATUS SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1055 PM TUESDAY...THE SEA FOG THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ILM
WATERS. WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE PATCHY/AREAS OF SEA FOG ACROSS THE
ILM WATERS THROUGH OR JUST AFTER DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. WITH THE LATEST
AVAILABLE SST MAP OF THE ILM WATERS USING AVHRR DATA FOR THE 2 DAYS
ENDING ON NOV 14TH...2 NOTEWORTHY PATCHES OF COOLER SHELF WATERS IN
THE LOW 60S WERE SHOWN. ONE PATCH BETWEEN SURF CITY AND CAPE
FEAR...AND OUT TO NEARLY THE FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY...41013. AND THE
2ND PATCH...LYING ACROSS THE WATERS BETWEEN NORTH MYRTLE BEACH TO
SOUTH SANTEE RIVER. THIS 2ND ONE NOT NEARLY AS PRONOUNCED AS THE
1ST. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT
ACROSS THESE COOLER SHELF WATERS OVERNIGHT INTO WED. THIS WILL
RESULT WITH AN INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR SEA FOG TO DEVELOP AND AFFECT
THE ILM WATERS...PARTICULAR ACROSS THOSE COOL WATERS. A FEW LOCAL
SURF CAMS HAVE SHOWCASED THE EXISTENCE OF THE SEA FOG. AS SYNOPTIC
WINDS SLOWLY VEER FROM 190-230 OVERNIGHT INTO WED...THE THREAT FOR
SEA FOG WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH OR ATLEAST KEEP THE FOG FROM ADVECTING
ONSHORE/INLAND. WILL INDICATE VSBY REDUCING TO 1NM OR LESS. IF ANY
RECEIVED REPORTS AND/OR OBS INDICATE 1/2 NM OR LESS VSBYS...WILL
THEN UPDATE AND ADVERTISE DENSE FOG. A MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT HAS
BEEN ISSUED TO HIGHLIGHT THE INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR SEA FOG.
HAVE MAINTAINED THE WINDS AND SEAS FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...WITH THE LATEST HRRR KEEPING WINDS ON THE LOWER SIDE OF
MODEL GUIDANCE. WHICH IN TURN...PRODUCING SLIGHTLY LOWER SEAS THAN
ORIGINALLY THOUGHT.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE WATERS
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
THROUGH OUT THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AND THE LOCAL SWAN MODEL IS
INDICATING THE SEAS WILL REACH SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS AROUND
MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY MORNING. AS THE FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL HELP PROVIDE AN ENVIRONMENT
FOR 20 TO 25 KNOT OFF SHORE WINDS ON THURSDAY.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...POST FRONT COLD SURGE IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE
FRI WILL DROP CLOSER TO 10 KT BY SAT MORNING AS GRADIENT. WEAK
COASTAL TROF TAKING SHAPE WILL INDUCE A MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT TO
LOW LEVEL FLOW. GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD
WITH WINDS BECOMING EAST TO SOUTHEAST LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN AS
ELONGATED RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS OFFSHORE. ADVISORY WORTHY SEAS AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD WILL DROP TO 3 TO 4 FT BY FRI NIGHT AND REMAIN
IN THE 3 TO 4 FT RANGE THROUGH SUN.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HAWKINS
NEAR TERM...DOUGH
SHORT TERM...HAWKINS
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...RJD/LACORTE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1045 PM EST TUE NOV 15 2011
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
A COLD FRONT OVER THE MIDWEST WILL SLIDE EASTWARD BRINGING SHOWERS
AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING DURING THE
WEEKEND. A SECOND FRONT WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1045 PM TUESDAY...SPORADIC ONSHORE MOVEMENT OF PATCHY OR AREAS
OF SEA FOG WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. THIS A RESULT OF SFC WINDS
BOUNCING FROM 180-210 DEGREES. AS WINDS BECOME DOMINANT 210-230
DEGREE DIRECTION AFTER DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY...THE THREAT FOR SEA FOG
MOVING ONSHORE WILL DIMINISH GREATLY. SCATTERED -SHRA LATE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT DUE TO A WEAK LOW-MID LEVEL IMPULSE TRACKING
NE...AS WELL AS LOW LEVEL WINDSPEED CONVERGENCE FROM 15-25 KT S-SW
WINDS OFFSHORE QUICKLY DROPPING TO 10 KT OR LESS OVER THE COOLER
SHELF WATERS...AS WELL AS WEAK WIND DIRECTION CONVERGENCE FROM SW
INLAND TO S-SSW ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
AS FOR SEA FOG...THE LATEST AVAILABLE SST MAP OF THE WATERS OFF THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST USING AVHRR DATA FOR THE 2 DAYS ENDING ON NOV
14TH...INDICATED 2 PATCHES OF NOTEWORTHY COOL SHELF WATERS OFF THE
CAROLINAS...WITH 1 PATCH BETWEEN SURF CITY AND CAPE FEAR...TO NEARLY
OUT TO THE FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY...41013. AND THE SECOND PATCH
LYING ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS BETWEEN NORTH MYRTLE BEACH TO SOUTH
SANTEE RIVER. THIS 2ND ONE NOT AS PRONOUNCED AS THE 1ST. WITH SFC
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 ADVECTING ACROSS THESE COOLER
SHELF WATERS OVERNIGHT INTO WED...SEA FOG WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
AND AFFECT THE IMMEDIATE COAST BORDERING THE AFOREMENTIONED COLL
SHELF WATER AREAS. A FEW LOCAL SURF CAMS HAVE ALSO SHOWCASED THE
EXISTENCE OF THE SEA FOG AT TIMES.
PREVIOUS MIN FORECAST FOR TONIGHT STILL LOOKING AOK WITH ANY TWEAKS
NEEDED WOULD BE ON THE ORDER TO INCREASE LOWS CLOSER TO THE
IMMEDIATE COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...A LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL SHIFT EASTWARD BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THIS WILL PROVIDE GOOD SYNOPTIC LIFT FOR THE REGION. AT THE
SURFACE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ACT AS THE LOW LEVEL LIFTING
MECHANISM FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. INSTABILITY IS
FORECAST BY THE MODEL TO BE VERY LOW AND THE LOW-LEVEL 0 TO 2.5 KM
BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDE REACHES ALMOST 40 KNOTS. THE LOW-LEVEL
HELICITY MAXIMUM APPEARS TO BE SHIFTING FARTHER NORTH WITH THIS
MODEL RUN AND IS RUNNING AHEAD OF THE MODEL CONVECTION...SO
CONFIDENCE ON ISOLATED TORNADOES IS NOT VERY HIGH AT THIS TIME.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH IN THE UPPER 70S INLAND
ON WEDNESDAY AND WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSAGE HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO ONLY REACH IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S ON THURSDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...COLD SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION FRI
BEFORE QUICKLY SHIFTING NORTHEAST FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. WEAK COASTAL
TROUGH DEVELOPS SAT WITH LOW LEVEL EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW
INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE LOWEST 3K FT OR SO. CURRENT FORECAST IS
DEVOID OF PRECIP HOWEVER THE INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE LATER
IN THE DAY SAT COULD PRODUCE SOME LIGHT PATCHY OF RAIN. WOULD NOT
EXPECT MUCH QPF SHOULD SOMETHING DEVELOP WITH COASTAL NC THE MOST
LIKELY AREA TO SEE SOMETHING. AT THE VERY LEAST ANTICIPATE AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER SAT INTO SUN.
COASTAL TROUGH DISSIPATES SUN AS SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF
THE AREA. ALTHOUGH DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW HELPS INCREASE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE SUN AND MON DRY MID LEVELS AND WEAK CAP...A RESULT OF
BUILDING WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE...WILL PREVENT ANY PRECIP. WEAK COLD
FRONT STALLED NORTH OF THE AREA TUE WILL TRY AND DROP SOUTH DURING
THE DAY. IF FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA DO NOT THINK IT WOULD HAVE
MUCH PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THE FRONT IS STRETCHED OUT WITH THE
DYNAMICS WELL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM WELL BELOW CLIMO AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD TO ABOVE CLIMO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE TRANSITION FROM BELOW
CLIMO TO ABOVE WILL BE QUICK...BY SAT NIGHT TEMPS SHOULD BE ABOVE
CLIMO.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...EXPECT CONTINUED AREAS OF PATCHY SEA FOG TO ADVECT
ONSHORE AT KCRE/KMYR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...REDUCING
VSBYS OFF AND ON TO MVFR BEFORE FLOW FROM VEERING WINDS STEER FOG
AWAY FROM TERMINALS AFTER DAYBREAK. FOR KILM...CURRENT RADAR
DEPICTS SOME -SHRA OFFSHORE. CANNOT RULE OUT A LIGHT SHOWER TO
WRAP AROUND TO TERMINAL...AND POSSIBLY THE TWO OTHER COASTAL
SITES...THUS HAVE OPTED TO INCLUDE VCSH FOR A FEW HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH ROUGHLY 06Z WITH SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5-8KTS. WITH MODELS IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT...ANTICIPATE CIGS AND VSBYS AT ALL SITES DETERIORATE
AFTER 07Z DUE TO ADVECTION FOG/STRATUS. FOR NOW...ANTICIPATE
LIFR/IFR CIGS...AND IFR/MVFR FOG THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. SOON
AFTER DAYBREAK...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO SLOWLY IMPROVE TO VFR...WITH
TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT CREATING GUSTY WINDS 18-22KTS ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA. WINDS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST. TOWARDS THE END OF THE VALID PERIOD INTO THE
NEXT...CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO DETERIORATE AGAIN AS A COLD
FRONT BRINGS ANTICIPATED SHRA AND ISOLATED TSRA.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING COULD CREATE ISOLATED TSRA AND IFR.
EXPECT VFR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH LOWERED CONFIDENCE FOR
POTENTIAL IFR FOG/STRATUS SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1055 PM TUESDAY...THE SEA FOG THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ILM
WATERS. WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE PATCHY/AREAS OF SEA FOG ACROSS THE
ILM WATERS THROUGH OR JUST AFTER DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. WITH THE LATEST
AVAILABLE SST MAP OF THE ILM WATERS USING AVHRR DATA FOR THE 2 DAYS
ENDING ON NOV 14TH...2 NOTEWORTHY PATCHES OF COOLER SHELF WATERS IN
THE LOW 60S WERE SHOWN. ONE PATCH BETWEEN SURF CITY AND CAPE
FEAR...AND OUT TO NEARLY THE FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY...41013. AND THE
2ND PATCH...LYING ACROSS THE WATERS BETWEEN NORTH MYRTLE BEACH TO
SOUTH SANTEE RIVER. THIS 2ND ONE NOT NEARLY AS PRONOUNCED AS THE
1ST. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT
ACROSS THESE COOLER SHELF WATERS OVERNIGHT INTO WED. THIS WILL
RESULT WITH AN INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR SEA FOG TO DEVELOP AND AFFECT
THE ILM WATERS...PARTICULAR ACROSS THOSE COOL WATERS. A FEW LOCAL
SURF CAMS HAVE SHOWCASED THE EXISTENCE OF THE SEA FOG. AS SYNOPTIC
WINDS SLOWLY VEER FROM 190-230 OVERNIGHT INTO WED...THE THREAT FOR
SEA FOG WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH OR ATLEAST KEEP THE FOG FROM ADVECTING
ONSHORE/INLAND. WILL INDICATE VSBY REDUCING TO 1NM OR LESS. IF ANY
RECEIVED REPORTS AND/OR OBS INDICATE 1/2 NM OR LESS VSBYS...WILL
THEN UPDATE AND ADVERTISE DENSE FOG. A MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT HAS
BEEN ISSUED TO HIGHLIGHT THE INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR SEA FOG.
HAVE MAINTAINED THE WINDS AND SEAS FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...WITH THE LATEST HRRR KEEPING WINDS ON THE LOWER SIDE OF
MODEL GUIDANCE. WHICH IN TURN...PRODUCING SLIGHTLY LOWER SEAS THAN
ORIGINALLY THOUGHT.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE WATERS
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
THROUGH OUT THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AND THE LOCAL SWAN MODEL IS
INDICATING THE SEAS WILL REACH SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS AROUND
MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY MORNING. AS THE FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL HELP PROVIDE AN ENVIRONMENT
FOR 20 TO 25 KNOT OFF SHORE WINDS ON THURSDAY.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...POST FRONT COLD SURGE IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE
FRI WILL DROP CLOSER TO 10 KT BY SAT MORNING AS GRADIENT. WEAK
COASTAL TROF TAKING SHAPE WILL INDUCE A MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT TO
LOW LEVEL FLOW. GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD
WITH WINDS BECOMING EAST TO SOUTHEAST LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN AS
ELONGATED RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS OFFSHORE. ADVISORY WORTHY SEAS AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD WILL DROP TO 3 TO 4 FT BY FRI NIGHT AND REMAIN
IN THE 3 TO 4 FT RANGE THROUGH SUN.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HAWKINS
NEAR TERM...DOUGH
SHORT TERM...HAWKINS
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...LACORTE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
604 AM MST WED NOV 16 2011
.UPDATE...
601 AM MST WED NOV 16 2011
JUST COMPLETED AN UPDATE. PERSISTENT BANDS CONTINUE OVER NORTHERN
AND EASTERN SECTIONS...AND ARE PRODUCING MORE THAN FLURRIES. MOST
INTENSE BAND IS OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS AT THIS TIME. SO INCREASED
POPS IN THOSE AREAS. ALSO INCREASED CLOUD COVER PER LATEST
SATELLITE AND UPDATED HOURLY TEMPERATURE...DEWPOINT...AND WIND
GRIDS FOR THIS MORNING.
BULLER
&&
.DISCUSSION...
301 AM MST WED NOV 16 2011
FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE TODAY...AND THEN HOW FAST IS THE
TEMPERATURE RECOVERY INTO FRIDAY. SATELLITE SHOWING SOME
AMPLIFICATION TO THE FLOW FROM THE WESTERN PACIFIC INTO CENTRAL NORTH
AMERICA. UPPER TROUGH IS STILL HANGING AROUND OVER THE CENTRAL
PORTION OF THE COUNTRY WITH NUMEROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH
IT. COLD FRONT THAT WENT THROUGH EARLIER TODAY EXTENDS FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF COLORADO.
MODELS INITIALIZED FINE AT JET LEVEL. MODELS INITIALIZED FINE AT MID
LEVELS EXCEPT THE GFS WAS TOO MOIST. THE MODELS TENDED TO BE
SLIGHTLY TOO FAR EAST AND SOUTH WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE AND THE LEE
SURFACE TROUGH. HOWEVER...THE NAM WAS PRETTY CLOSE AND SLIGHTLY
BETTER THAN THE ECMWF. ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD OVERALL...THE
CANADIAN...GFS AND UKMET WERE ABOUT THE SAME AND A LITTLE BETTER
WITH THE NAM NOT TOO FAR BEHIND AND MAYBE BETTER TO THE NORTH OF THE
AREA.
TODAY/TONIGHT...INITIAL PROBLEM WILL BE COVERAGE AND DURATION OF
SNOWFALL THIS MORNING AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND LIFT FROM THE
UPPER JET MOVE THROUGH. GOING BY THE DNR 00Z SOUNDING...THE BEST
MOISTURE IS ABOVE 700 MB AND REALITY IS SUPPORTING THAT. SO FAR
VISIBILITIES/OBSERVATIONS AND CAMERAS SHOW LITTLE IF ANY
ACCUMULATION...EVEN UNDER THE MOST INTENSE BAND THAT IS ALONG THE
KANSAS AND NEBRASKA BORDER. TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT SPREADS ARE
LARGE...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH WHERE THE RADAR SAYS THE MOST INTENSE
PRECIPITATION IS. MOST OF THE MODELS SAY THAT MEASURABLE SHOULD BE
OCCURRING AT THIS TIME WITH RUC HAVING THE LEAST MEASURABLE AND
LOOKING THE BEST AT THIS TIME.
RIGHT REAR QUADRANT SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA BY 12Z. 7-5H
SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO BE ENTERING THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA AT THIS TIME. SOME PV MOVES ACROSS EARLY WITH THE BRUNT OF IT
NORTH. DOWNGLIDE ALSO MOVES IN RATHER QUICKLY THIS MORNING. WILL
CONTINUE TO WATCH TRENDS FOR CHANGES BUT PLAN ON TAKING THE
MEASURABLE OUT AND HAVE FLURRIES OVER MOST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING
WITH MAYBE A LITTLE LINGERING IN THE FAR EAST INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON.
QUESTION THEN BECOMES HOW FAST WE CLEAR OUT AND ITS AFFECT ON HIGH
TEMPERATURES. STRONG JET ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH DOES
NOT GET CLOSE TO THE AREA UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY. BASED ON
SATELLITE...WE SHOULD CLEAR OUT RATHER QUICKLY WITH THE MODELS
LOOKING LIKE THEY ARE HANGING ONTO CLOUDS A LITTLE TOO LONG.
CURRENTLY TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING A LITTLE WARMER THAN DEPICTED
BUT CLEARING AND TEMPERATURES UPSTREAM SUPPORT MINS GETTING NEAR
WHAT IS CALLED FOR. MODEL GUIDANCE IS SIMILAR IN ITS DEPICTION AND
MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON LATEST TRENDS/GUIDANCE.
ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM AS IT
EXITS. LOOKS LIKE WILL HAVE GOOD SUBSIDENCE AND ADIABATIC LAPSE
RATES. SO IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF AT LEAST
BREEZY AND GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON BUT DO NOT SEE ANYTHING
GETTING OUT OF HAND.
JET AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT...AND AFFECTS THE
NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA BY 12Z. THAT AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
WILL INCREASE THE CLOUDS AFTER 06Z. NEXT QUESTION WILL BE HOW FAST
THE SURFACE MOVES THROUGH AND HOW FAST DO THE WINDS INCREASE. LIKE
THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER EVOLUTION AND THINK THE GFS IS TOO FAST. AT
THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT EARLY...
ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST AND THEN REMAIN STEADY AFTER THAT.
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE JET REMAINS
NEAR OR OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. SOME DIFFERENCE IN THE AMOUNT
OF CLOUD COVER WITH MOST OF THE MODELS SHOWING A MOSTLY SUNNY TO
A PARTLY SUNNY DAY. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE IN THIS FLOW...CLOUDS
MAY BE A LITTLE MORE THAN CURRENTLY THINK. SHOULD START OFF WITH
DOWNSLOPE WINDS BUT THEN THEY SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AS LEE TROUGH
STRENGTHENS. MODELS DO NOT LOOK AS STRONG ON THE WINDS AS YESTERDAY
AS MIXING AND GRADIENT ARE NOT AS STRONG AS PREVIOUSLY DEPICTED.
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE IN THE EAST. SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE DEPICTED
MAXES. THE 06Z NAM HAS COOLED THINGS OFF A LITTLE FROM 00Z. AT THIS
TIME...WILL TREND TOWARD THE WARMER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE.
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...COMPLEX JET SETUP BEGINS DURING THE DAY.
NORTHERN STREAM REMAINS WELL NORTHWEST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY.
HOWEVER...LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF A SOUTHERN JET DEVELOPS OR
STRENGTHENS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. THERE LOOKS TO BE SOME INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS IN THE
AFTERNOON. CONSIDERING WHAT THE JET IS DOING AND THE STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...LIKE WHAT THE NAM AND ECMWF ARE SHOWING WITH A
STRENGTHENING AND FURTHER WEST LEE TROUGH. THIS MEANS LESS OF A
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT AND IF MODELS ARE CORRECT MORE OF AN EASTERLY
COMPONENT AS THE DAY WHERES ON. SO WILL TREND TOWARD THE COOLER
SIDE OF GUIDANCE.
AS A SIDE NOTE...DUE TO A MORE EASTERLY WIND AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS...
BELIEVE SHOULD NOT SEE ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS DESPITE THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES.
BULLER
FOR THE PERIOD SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY FROM BASE OF WEST COAST MEAN
TROUGH. TRACK OF THE UPPER SYSTEM AND MOISTURE PROFILES SUGGEST FROPA
WILL BE DRY. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT SOMETIME ON SATURDAY. COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW ON
SUNDAY...LOW TO MIDDLE 40S FOR HIGHS...WHICH IS AROUND 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. RETURN FLOW GETS UNDER WAY FOR MONDAY UNDER SHORTWAVE
RIDGING ALOFT WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL AND CONTINUED
DRY. REMNANTS OF WEST COAST SYSTEM COMES ACROSS SOUTHERN ROCKIES ON
TUESDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF MAINLY RAIN...BEST CHANCES WILL BE
SOUTH. 024
THANKS TO ALL THAT COLLABORATED.
&&
.AVIATION...
427 AM MST WED NOV 16 2011
FLURRIES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING BUT NOT EXPECTED
TO IMPACT FLIGHT CATEGORIES AT EITHER KGLD OR KMCK. NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL INCREASE BY THE AFTERNOON BEHIND DEPARTING SYSTEM WITH A FEW
GUSTS TO 25KTS BEFORE DIMINISHING AT SUNSET.
024
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
427 AM MST WED NOV 16 2011
.DISCUSSION...
301 AM MST WED NOV 16 2011
FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE TODAY...AND THEN HOW FAST IS THE
TEMPERATURE RECOVERY INTO FRIDAY. SATELLITE SHOWING SOME
AMPLIFICATION TO THE FLOW FROM THE WESTERN PACIFIC INTO CENTRAL NORTH
AMERICA. UPPER TROUGH IS STILL HANGING AROUND OVER THE CENTRAL
PORTION OF THE COUNTRY WITH NUMEROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH
IT. COLD FRONT THAT WENT THROUGH EARLIER TODAY EXTENDS FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF COLORADO.
MODELS INITIALIZED FINE AT JET LEVEL. MODELS INITIALIZED FINE AT MID
LEVELS EXCEPT THE GFS WAS TOO MOIST. THE MODELS TENDED TO BE
SLIGHTLY TOO FAR EAST AND SOUTH WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE AND THE LEE
SURFACE TROUGH. HOWEVER...THE NAM WAS PRETTY CLOSE AND SLIGHTLY
BETTER THAN THE ECMWF. ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD OVERALL...THE
CANADIAN...GFS AND UKMET WERE ABOUT THE SAME AND A LITTLE BETTER
WITH THE NAM NOT TOO FAR BEHIND AND MAYBE BETTER TO THE NORTH OF THE
AREA.
TODAY/TONIGHT...INITIAL PROBLEM WILL BE COVERAGE AND DURATION OF
SNOWFALL THIS MORNING AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND LIFT FROM THE
UPPER JET MOVE THROUGH. GOING BY THE DNR 00Z SOUNDING...THE BEST
MOISTURE IS ABOVE 700 MB AND REALITY IS SUPPORTING THAT. SO FAR
VISIBILITIES/OBSERVATIONS AND CAMERAS SHOW LITTLE IF ANY
ACCUMULATION...EVEN UNDER THE MOST INTENSE BAND THAT IS ALONG THE
KANSAS AND NEBRASKA BORDER. TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT SPREADS ARE
LARGE...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH WHERE THE RADAR SAYS THE MOST INTENSE
PRECIPITATION IS. MOST OF THE MODELS SAY THAT MEASURABLE SHOULD BE
OCCURRING AT THIS TIME WITH RUC HAVING THE LEAST MEASURABLE AND
LOOKING THE BEST AT THIS TIME.
RIGHT REAR QUADRANT SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA BY 12Z. 7-5H
SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO BE ENTERING THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA AT THIS TIME. SOME PV MOVES ACROSS EARLY WITH THE BRUNT OF IT
NORTH. DOWNGLIDE ALSO MOVES IN RATHER QUICKLY THIS MORNING. WILL
CONTINUE TO WATCH TRENDS FOR CHANGES BUT PLAN ON TAKING THE
MEASURABLE OUT AND HAVE FLURRIES OVER MOST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING
WITH MAYBE A LITTLE LINGERING IN THE FAR EAST INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON.
QUESTION THEN BECOMES HOW FAST WE CLEAR OUT AND ITS AFFECT ON HIGH
TEMPERATURES. STRONG JET ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH DOES
NOT GET CLOSE TO THE AREA UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY. BASED ON
SATELLITE...WE SHOULD CLEAR OUT RATHER QUICKLY WITH THE MODELS
LOOKING LIKE THEY ARE HANGING ONTO CLOUDS A LITTLE TOO LONG.
CURRENTLY TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING A LITTLE WARMER THAN DEPICTED
BUT CLEARING AND TEMPERATURES UPSTREAM SUPPORT MINS GETTING NEAR
WHAT IS CALLED FOR. MODEL GUIDANCE IS SIMILAR IN ITS DEPICTION AND
MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON LATEST TRENDS/GUIDANCE.
ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM AS IT
EXITS. LOOKS LIKE WILL HAVE GOOD SUBSIDENCE AND ADIABATIC LAPSE
RATES. SO IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF AT LEAST
BREEZY AND GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON BUT DO NOT SEE ANYTHING
GETTING OUT OF HAND.
JET AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT...AND AFFECTS THE
NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA BY 12Z. THAT AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
WILL INCREASE THE CLOUDS AFTER 06Z. NEXT QUESTION WILL BE HOW FAST
THE SURFACE MOVES THROUGH AND HOW FAST DO THE WINDS INCREASE. LIKE
THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER EVOLUTION AND THINK THE GFS IS TOO FAST. AT
THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT EARLY...
ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST AND THEN REMAIN STEADY AFTER THAT.
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE JET REMAINS
NEAR OR OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. SOME DIFFERENCE IN THE AMOUNT
OF CLOUD COVER WITH MOST OF THE MODELS SHOWING A MOSTLY SUNNY TO
A PARTLY SUNNY DAY. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE IN THIS FLOW...CLOUDS
MAY BE A LITTLE MORE THAN CURRENTLY THINK. SHOULD START OFF WITH
DOWNSLOPE WINDS BUT THEN THEY SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AS LEE TROUGH
STRENGTHENS. MODELS DO NOT LOOK AS STRONG ON THE WINDS AS YESTERDAY
AS MIXING AND GRADIENT ARE NOT AS STRONG AS PREVIOUSLY DEPICTED.
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE IN THE EAST. SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE DEPICTED
MAXES. THE 06Z NAM HAS COOLED THINGS OFF A LITTLE FROM 00Z. AT THIS
TIME...WILL TREND TOWARD THE WARMER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE.
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...COMPLEX JET SETUP BEGINS DURING THE DAY.
NORTHERN STREAM REMAINS WELL NORTHWEST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY.
HOWEVER...LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF A SOUTHERN JET DEVELOPS OR
STRENGTHENS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. THERE LOOKS TO BE SOME INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS IN THE
AFTERNOON. CONSIDERING WHAT THE JET IS DOING AND THE STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...LIKE WHAT THE NAM AND ECMWF ARE SHOWING WITH A
STRENGTHENING AND FURTHER WEST LEE TROUGH. THIS MEANS LESS OF A
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT AND IF MODELS ARE CORRECT MORE OF AN EASTERLY
COMPONENT AS THE DAY WHERES ON. SO WILL TREND TOWARD THE COOLER
SIDE OF GUIDANCE.
AS A SIDE NOTE...DUE TO A MORE EASTERLY WIND AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS...
BELIEVE SHOULD NOT SEE ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS DESPITE THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES.
BULLER
FOR THE PERIOD SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY FROM BASE OF WEST COAST MEAN
TROUGH. TRACK OF THE UPPER SYSTEM AND MOISTURE PROFILES SUGGEST FROPA
WILL BE DRY. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT SOMETIME ON SATURDAY. COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW ON
SUNDAY...LOW TO MIDDLE 40S FOR HIGHS...WHICH IS AROUND 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. RETURN FLOW GETS UNDER WAY FOR MONDAY UNDER SHORTWAVE
RIDGING ALOFT WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL AND CONTINUED
DRY. REMNANTS OF WEST COAST SYSTEM COMES ACROSS SOUTHERN ROCKIES ON
TUESDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF MAINLY RAIN...BEST CHANCES WILL BE
SOUTH. 024
THANKS TO ALL THAT COLLABORATED.
&&
.AVIATION...
427 AM MST WED NOV 16 2011
FLURRIES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING BUT NOT EXPECTED
TO IMPACT FLIGHT CATEGORIES AT EITHER KGLD OR KMCK. NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL INCREASE BY THE AFTERNOON BEHIND DEPARTING SYSTEM WITH A FEW
GUSTS TO 25KTS BEFORE DIMINISHING AT SUNSET.
024
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
646 AM EST WED NOV 16 2011
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
EARLY TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING LATE
THURSDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE MID ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
NUDGE NORTH THIS MORNING...ALLOWING FOR SW WARM AND MOIST FLOW TO
CONTINUE OVER THE LOCAL AREA. CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND DECENT MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...WITH SOME
BREAKS POSSIBLE ESP TO THE S. PRECIP CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN
VIRGINIA IS EXPECTED TO CLIP NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA LATER
THIS MORNING. LOWER CHANCES FOR RAIN FURTHER S WHERE THE BEST FORCING
AND DEEP MOISTURE WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND A DEVELOPING SFC
WAVE (IN RESPONSE TO A POTENT S/W OVER THE TN VALLEY EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE SW UPPER FLOW) WILL ALSO INCREASE THE RAIN POTENTIAL
STARTING LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS IN THE FORECAST...W/ STRONG LOW-TOPPED
CONVECTION (LOW CAPE AND HIGH SHEAR) POSSIBLE...ESP FOR NE NORTH
CAROLINA AND EXTREME SE VIRGINIA (SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK) WHERE
INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATEST. MAIN THREAT WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS
(>40 KT OF 0-3 KM SHEAR AND DCAPE>1000 J/KG). ALSO...SOME STORMS
MAY EXHIBIT ROTATION AS RUC AND NAM BOTH PROG 0-1 KM
HELICITIES>300 M2/S2. MAIN LIMITING FACTOR MAY BE LACK OF
INSTABILITY DUE TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS
AGAIN TODAY SINCE COLD FROPA HOLDS OFF UNTIL EVENING...HIGHS IN THE
L-M70S OVER THE NW AND M-U70S OVER THE SE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BEST PROBABILITY FOR RAIN (CATEGORICAL POPS) COMES TONIGHT DUE TO A
COMBO OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND STRONG LOW/MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED W/ COLD FRONT. RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES AND SOME
AREAS MAY RECEIVE OVER AN INCH TOTAL W/ THIS SYSTEM (ESP N PART OF
FA). NO SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED ATTM DUE TO FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE BEING HIGH. THE RAIN TAPERS OFF FROM W TO E THUR
MIDDAY/AFTERNOON. DECREASING CLOUDS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY AND
NIGHT. COOL N FLOW AT THE SFC WILL ONLY YIELD HIGHS IN THE L-M50S
THUR.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC FRI LEADING TO
DRY WX AND SUNNY SKIES. TEMPS WILL ONLY MAX OUT IN THE U40S-L50S AFTER
A CHILLY START IN THE U20S-M30S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SHOWING A SOUTHWEST
UPPER LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPING SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES
ANCHORED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH SUNDAY. SOME
CLOUDINESS IS POSSIBLE IN NORTHEAST NC AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST VA ON
SATURDAY AS TROPICAL MOISTURE ROTATES AROUND A MID-LEVEL HIGH OFF
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST AND MOVES NEAR THIS AREA. OTHERWISE...A
DRYING AND WARMING TREND IS ANTICIPATED UNDER THIS FLOW
REGIME...WITH HIGH TEMPS REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE 60S BY SUNDAY.
LOWS SHOULD BE NEAR FREEZING SATURDAY MORNING DUE TO PRIME COOLING
CONDITIONS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH VERY LIGHT WINDS...THEN
REBOUND TOWARD THE LOW 50S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS CLOUDS INCREASE
AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER DISTURBANCE.
BY LATE SUNDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SAG SOUTHWARD AND
STALL OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. 12Z MODEL RUNS
TODAY ARE HINTING AT SLOWING THE SOUTHERN MOVEMENT OF THIS BOUNDARY
UNTIL LATE MONDAY...WHICH WOULD DELAY THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION
UNTIL THAT TIMEFRAME. HAVE TRENDED THE ONGOING FORECAST TOWARD
SLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT UNTIL LATE MONDAY...WITH
PRECIPITATION BEING INTRODUCED LATE SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD FRNT WILL APPROACH THE AREA THRU THIS MORNG...THEN DROP ACRS
THE REGION THIS AFTN THRU TNGT. CIGS/VSBYS WILL QUICKLY LWR TO
MVFR THEN IFR (LIFR?) DURING THIS MORNG WITH -DZ OR SCTD -SHRAS
MOVNG INTO NRN AND WRN AREAS. CIGS/VSBYS WILL LIKELY LIFT TO MVFR
AND VFR CONDITIONS LATER THIS MORNG AND AFTN...AS SW WNDS INCRS IN
ADVANCE OF FRNT...WITH ISLTD TO SCTD SHRAS AHEAD OF AND ALNG THE
FRNTL BNDRY INTO THIS EVENG. DURING THIS EVENG INTO THU
MORNG...IFR (LIFR?) CONDITIONS WITH -RA EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRNT.
VFR AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN THU AFTN THRU SUN.
&&
.MARINE...
HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA HEADLINE FOR ALL THE WTRS THRU LATE THU
NGT...AS NNW WNDS (CAA) WILL CONTINUE AT 15 TO 25 KT AND
WAVES/SEAS WILL STAY UP. SE OR S WNDS 10 KT OR LESS ERLY THIS
MORNG...WILL BECOME SW AND INCRS TO 15 TO 20 KT THIS AFTN IN
ADVANCE OF COLD FRNT. CUD BE GUSTS TO 25 KT. WNDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE NW OR N THIS EVENG INTO ERLY THU MORNG BEHIND THE FRNT. THIS
CAA SURGE WILL THEN CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THU AND THU NGT.
MORE BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED FRI INTO SUN...AS HI
PRES BLDS OVR THE WTRS FM THE W.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR NOV 16TH (WED):
RIC...85 IN 1955
ORF...83 IN 1955
SBY...78 IN 1928
ECG...85 IN 1993
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
ANZ630>634-650-652-654-656-658.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
632 AM EST WED NOV 16 2011
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
EARLY TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING LATE
THURSDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE MID ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
NUDGE NORTH THIS MORNING...ALLOWING FOR SW WARM AND MOIST FLOW TO
CONTINUE OVER THE LOCAL AREA. CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND DECENT MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...WITH SOME
BREAKS POSSIBLE ESP TO THE S. PRECIP CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN
VIRGINIA IS EXPECTED TO CLIP NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA LATER
THIS MORNING. LOWER CHANCES FOR RAIN FURTHER S WHERE THE BEST FORCING
AND DEEP MOISTURE WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND A DEVELOPING SFC
WAVE (IN RESPONSE TO A POTENT S/W OVER THE TN VALLEY EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE SW UPPER FLOW) WILL ALSO INCREASE THE RAIN POTENTIAL
STARTING LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS IN THE FORECAST...W/ STRONG LOW-TOPPED
CONVECTION (LOW CAPE AND HIGH SHEAR) POSSIBLE...ESP FOR NE NORTH
CAROLINA AND EXTREME SE VIRGINIA (SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK) WHERE
INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATEST. MAIN THREAT WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS
(>40 KT OF 0-3 KM SHEAR AND DCAPE>1000 J/KG). ALSO...SOME STORMS
MAY EXHIBIT ROTATION AS RUC AND NAM BOTH PROG 0-1 KM
HELICITIES>300 M2/S2. EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS AGAIN TODAY DUE TO
THE COLD FROPA BEING DELAYED UNTIL TONIGHT...HIGHS IN THE L-M70S
OVER THE NW AND M-U70S OVER THE SE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BEST PROBABILITY FOR RAIN (CATEGORICAL POPS) COMES TONIGHT DUE TO A
COMBO OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND STRONG LOW/MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED W/ COLD FRONT. RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES AND SOME
AREAS MAY RECEIVE OVER AN INCH TOTAL W/ THIS SYSTEM (ESP N PART OF
FA). NO SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED ATTM DUE TO FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE BEING HIGH. THE RAIN TAPERS OFF FROM W TO E THUR
MIDDAY/AFTERNOON. DECREASING CLOUDS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY AND
NIGHT. COOL N FLOW AT THE SFC WILL ONLY YIELD HIGHS IN THE L-M50S
THUR.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC FRI LEADING TO
DRY WX AND SUNNY SKIES. TEMPS WILL ONLY MAX OUT IN THE U40S-L50S AFTER
A CHILLY START IN THE U20S-M30S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SHOWING A SOUTHWEST
UPPER LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPING SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES
ANCHORED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH SUNDAY. SOME
CLOUDINESS IS POSSIBLE IN NORTHEAST NC AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST VA ON
SATURDAY AS TROPICAL MOISTURE ROTATES AROUND A MID-LEVEL HIGH OFF
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST AND MOVES NEAR THIS AREA. OTHERWISE...A
DRYING AND WARMING TREND IS ANTICIPATED UNDER THIS FLOW
REGIME...WITH HIGH TEMPS REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE 60S BY SUNDAY.
LOWS SHOULD BE NEAR FREEZING SATURDAY MORNING DUE TO PRIME COOLING
CONDITIONS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH VERY LIGHT WINDS...THEN
REBOUND TOWARD THE LOW 50S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS CLOUDS INCREASE
AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER DISTURBANCE.
BY LATE SUNDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SAG SOUTHWARD AND
STALL OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. 12Z MODEL RUNS
TODAY ARE HINTING AT SLOWING THE SOUTHERN MOVEMENT OF THIS BOUNDARY
UNTIL LATE MONDAY...WHICH WOULD DELAY THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION
UNTIL THAT TIMEFRAME. HAVE TRENDED THE ONGOING FORECAST TOWARD
SLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT UNTIL LATE MONDAY...WITH
PRECIPITATION BEING INTRODUCED LATE SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD FRNT WILL APPROACH THE AREA THRU THIS MORNG...THEN DROP ACRS
THE REGION THIS AFTN THRU TNGT. CIGS/VSBYS WILL QUICKLY LWR TO
MVFR THEN IFR (LIFR?) DURING THIS MORNG WITH -DZ OR SCTD -SHRAS
MOVNG INTO NRN AND WRN AREAS. CIGS/VSBYS WILL LIKELY LIFT TO MVFR
AND VFR CONDITIONS LATER THIS MORNG AND AFTN...AS SW WNDS INCRS IN
ADVANCE OF FRNT...WITH ISLTD TO SCTD SHRAS AHEAD OF AND ALNG THE
FRNTL BNDRY INTO THIS EVENG. DURING THIS EVENG INTO THU
MORNG...IFR (LIFR?) CONDITIONS WITH -RA EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRNT.
VFR AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN THU AFTN THRU SUN.
&&
.MARINE...
HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA HEADLINE FOR ALL THE WTRS THRU LATE THU
NGT...AS NNW WNDS (CAA) WILL CONTINUE AT 15 TO 25 KT AND
WAVES/SEAS WILL STAY UP. SE OR S WNDS 10 KT OR LESS ERLY THIS
MORNG...WILL BECOME SW AND INCRS TO 15 TO 20 KT THIS AFTN IN
ADVANCE OF COLD FRNT. CUD BE GUSTS TO 25 KT. WNDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE NW OR N THIS EVENG INTO ERLY THU MORNG BEHIND THE FRNT. THIS
CAA SURGE WILL THEN CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THU AND THU NGT.
MORE BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED FRI INTO SUN...AS HI
PRES BLDS OVR THE WTRS FM THE W.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR NOV 16TH (WED):
RIC...85 IN 1955
ORF...83 IN 1955
SBY...78 IN 1928
ECG...85 IN 1993
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
ANZ630>634-650-652-654-656-658.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
651 AM EST WED NOV 16 2011
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 12Z TAFS
.SYNOPSIS...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS
MOST OF THE CONUS WITH AXIS ROUGHLY OVER THE WRN PLAINS. A VIGOROUS
LOOKING SHORTWAVE IS TRACKING THRU THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ATTM. LIKE
ITS PREDECESSOR 24-30HRS AGO...THIS SYSTEM PRODUCED SOME LIGHTNING
STRIKES ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR EARLIER IN THE NIGHT. THE MORE
SIGNIFICANT PCPN WITH WAVE HAS PASSED MOSTLY N OF UPPER MI...
JUST N OF THE VORT TRACK ACROSS NRN UPPER MI/SRN LAKE SUPERIOR.
UPSTREAM...850MB TEMPS RANGE FROM -7C AT KINL TO -10C KBIS AND -12C
AT CYQD. WHILE 00Z KBIS SOUNDING SHOWED DRYNESS IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER...KINL AND CQYD SOUNDINGS SHOWED DEEP MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY
CYQD. THIS UPSTREAM COMBINATION OF COLD AIR/DEEP MOISTURE SUGGESTS
AN ACTIVE LES PERIOD SHOULD BE ON THE WAY OVER THE NEXT 36HRS AS
TROF AXIS TO THE W SHIFTS E.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
FCST CONCERNS INVOLVE LES LOCATION/INTENSITY AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
THRU THURSDAY AND THEN POSSIBLE WINTER STORM FOR THE WEEKEND.
GIVEN FAVORABLE INSTABILITY/MOISTURE...SOMEWHAT PUZZLED BY THE
RELATIVELY LIGHT PCPN INDICATED BY THE NAM/GFS FOR THE LES TODAY
THRU THU...BUT THERE MAY BE A REASON. WHILE DEEPER MOISTURE EVIDENT
ON CYQD/KINL SOUNDINGS WILL REACH THE AREA...THE FLOW IN THE
LOW-LEVELS IS MORE WRLY...WHICH MAY SUPPORT SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR IN
THE BOUNDARY LAYER AS SUGGESTED BY THE KBIS SOUNDING. BOTH THE NAM
AND GFS HINT AT THAT...BUT THE NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS AREN`T REALLY THAT
DRY. WITH DEEP MOISTURE UWPARDS OF 8-10KFT AND DGZ DESCENDING MORE
FIRMLY INTO THE CONVECTIVE LAYER UNDER CAA REGIME...HAVE TO BELIEVE
LES WILL BE MORE SIGNIFICANT THAN THE NAM/GFS INDICATE. REGIONAL GEM
IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH PCPN AMOUNTS. WHILE THE NAM HAS 12Z
WED-00Z FRI PCPN AMOUNTS UP TO 0.4 INCHES NW TO 0.5 INCHES ALONG
SHORE E OF MUNISING...THE REGIONAL GEM IS UPWARDS OF 0.8 INCHES NW
TO OVER 2 INCHES E OF MUNISING. SOMETHING BTWN THE TWO EXTREMES IS
PROBABLY REASONABLE...THOUGH THE REGIONAL GEM LOOKS QUITE EXCESSIVE
OVER THE E. AT THIS POINT...WILL KEEP 12-24HR SNOW AMOUNTS JUST
UNDER LES WARNING THRESHOLDS NW DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE. WITH LOW-LEVEL WINDS ESSENTIALLY W...LES WILL TARGET AREAS
FROM ONTONAGON COUNTY THRU THE KEWEENAW. TO THE E...SLIGHT VEERING
OF WINDS HIGHER IN THE CONVECTIVE LAYER SHOULD TEND TO FOCUS THE SRN
LES BAND ALONG TO JUST INLAND FROM THE SHORE FROM PICTURED ROCKS
EASTWARD. TYPICALLY...THE SRN MOST BAND YIELDS HEAVIEST SNOW RATES
DUE TO LAND BREEZE CONVERGENCE AND THE OVERALL LONG FETCH ACROSS THE
LAKE...ONLY INTERRUPTED BRIEFLY BY THE KEWEENAW. THUS...POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR VERY IMPRESSIVE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER A SMALL AREA OF
THE E CLOSE TO LAKE SUPERIOR...PROVIDED LES BAND DOES NOT SHIFT
OFFSHORE FREQUENTLY. ALSO...DEEP/VIGOROUS CONVECTION AND RELATIVELY
WARM EARLY SEASON WATER/BOUNDARY LAYER MAY LEAD TO MORE GRAUPEL/SNOW
PELLET TYPE PCPN RATHER THAN LARGE SNOWFLAKES...WHICH WILL REDUCE
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER WHAT COULD BE EXPECTED. HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE
A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FOR ALGER/LUCE...EMPHASIZING THE AREAS FROM
AROUND GRAND MARAIS EASTWARD. AWAY FROM LES...DRY WEATHER WILL
GENERALLY PREVAIL THRU THU.
LES WILL WIND DOWN/END LATER THU/THU NIGHT AS MID/UPPER TROF SHIFTS
E OF THE AREA AND FLOW BEGINS TO BACK IN ADVANCE OF TROF
AMPLIFICATION OVER THE WRN CONUS. LEAD WAVE AHEAD OF THE WRN TROF
AMPLIFICATION COMBINED WITH STRONG WAA COULD LEAD TO SOME LIGHT PCPN
LATER THU NIGHT/FRI MORNING. LACK OF MOISTURE MAY RESULT IN PCPN
OCCURRING FARTHER N IN THE COLDER AIR WHERE SATURATION THRU THE
COLUMN CAN OCCUR.
SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT OUT OF THE WRN TROF EARLY IN THE WEEKEND. FOR
SEVERAL DAYS...MODELS HAVE SHOWN UNUSUALLY GOOD CONTINUITY ON SFC
LOW TRACK DESPITE BEING WAY OUT IN THE FCST CYCLE. THERE HAVE BEEN
THE EXPECTED INTENSITY/PLACEMENT ISSUES...BUT THEY WERE MINOR WHEN
CONSIDERING THE TIME RANGE INTO THE FCST RUN. FOR 90 TO 108HRS INTO
THE MODEL RUN...TODAYS 00Z ROUND OF MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS
WELL CLUSTERED ON A LOW TRACK FROM KS TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...
SOMEWHERE BTWN CNTRL UPPER MI AND FAR NRN LWR MI/STRAITS AREA. ALL
SUGGEST A HEADLINE SNOW EVENT FOR SOME PART OF THE FCST AREA...
PROBABLY HIGH END ADVY TYPE. THE WRN MOST LOW TRACK (GFS) WOULD
PROVIDE HEAVIEST SNOW OVER NW UPPER MI WHILE THE ERN TRACKS (GLOBAL
GEM/ECMWF) WOULD SPREAD HEAVIEST SNOW OVER MOSTLY THE CNTRL PORTION
OF UPPER MI.
&&
.AVIATION /FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE/
COLD AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION ON WEST NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SFC LOW WILL SUPPORT LAKE EFFECT SNOW THROUGH
THE PERIOD AT CMX. FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME AT CMX...EXPECT
LOWER MVFR CIGS WITH MAINLY IFR VSBY. MEANWHILE AT IWD AND
SAW...WESTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR LAKE EFFECT
SNOW...SO LITTLE IN WAY OF VSBY REDUCTION IS EXPECTED. COULD SEE
OCCASIONAL CIGS AT OR NEAR MVFR AT IWD AND SAW THOUGH.
&&
.MARINE /FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE/...
EXPECT WESTERLY GALES TO DIMINISH BY THIS EVENING OVR LK SUPERIOR AS
SFC LOW JUST EAST OF LK SUPERIOR HEADS INTO QUEBEC. WINDS REMAIN OUT
OF THE W/NW UP TO 30 KTS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN BECOME
MORE SOUTHERLY ON FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES TO NORTH OF
LK SUPERIOR. COULD BE MARGINAL SRLY GALES OVR FAR EASTERN SECTIONS
FRIDAY. ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS
ANOTHER LOW OVR THE PLAINS ON SATURDAY TRACKS ACROSS THE LAKE
SUPERIOR REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. NE WINDS COULD REACH GALE FORCE OVR
WESTERN SECTIONS SATURDAY WITH NW GALES THEN POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY FM THE REGION.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ001>003-
084.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOR MIZ006-007.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ248>251-265>267.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ162-
241>243-263-264.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ244-245.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LMZ221-250.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ROLFSON
DISCUSSION...ROLFSON
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
549 AM EST WED NOV 16 2011
.SYNOPSIS...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS
MOST OF THE CONUS WITH AXIS ROUGHLY OVER THE WRN PLAINS. A VIGOROUS
LOOKING SHORTWAVE IS TRACKING THRU THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ATTM. LIKE
ITS PREDECESSOR 24-30HRS AGO...THIS SYSTEM PRODUCED SOME LIGHTNING
STRIKES ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR EARLIER IN THE NIGHT. THE MORE
SIGNIFICANT PCPN WITH WAVE HAS PASSED MOSTLY N OF UPPER MI...
JUST N OF THE VORT TRACK ACROSS NRN UPPER MI/SRN LAKE SUPERIOR.
UPSTREAM...850MB TEMPS RANGE FROM -7C AT KINL TO -10C KBIS AND -12C
AT CYQD. WHILE 00Z KBIS SOUNDING SHOWED DRYNESS IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER...KINL AND CQYD SOUNDINGS SHOWED DEEP MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY
CYQD. THIS UPSTREAM COMBINATION OF COLD AIR/DEEP MOISTURE SUGGESTS
AN ACTIVE LES PERIOD SHOULD BE ON THE WAY OVER THE NEXT 36HRS AS
TROF AXIS TO THE W SHIFTS E.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
FCST CONCERNS INVOLVE LES LOCATION/INTENSITY AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
THRU THURSDAY AND THEN POSSIBLE WINTER STORM FOR THE WEEKEND.
GIVEN FAVORABLE INSTABILITY/MOISTURE...SOMEWHAT PUZZLED BY THE
RELATIVELY LIGHT PCPN INDICATED BY THE NAM/GFS FOR THE LES TODAY
THRU THU...BUT THERE MAY BE A REASON. WHILE DEEPER MOISTURE EVIDENT
ON CYQD/KINL SOUNDINGS WILL REACH THE AREA...THE FLOW IN THE
LOW-LEVELS IS MORE WRLY...WHICH MAY SUPPORT SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR IN
THE BOUNDARY LAYER AS SUGGESTED BY THE KBIS SOUNDING. BOTH THE NAM
AND GFS HINT AT THAT...BUT THE NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS AREN`T REALLY THAT
DRY. WITH DEEP MOISTURE UWPARDS OF 8-10KFT AND DGZ DESCENDING MORE
FIRMLY INTO THE CONVECTIVE LAYER UNDER CAA REGIME...HAVE TO BELIEVE
LES WILL BE MORE SIGNIFICANT THAN THE NAM/GFS INDICATE. REGIONAL GEM
IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH PCPN AMOUNTS. WHILE THE NAM HAS 12Z
WED-00Z FRI PCPN AMOUNTS UP TO 0.4 INCHES NW TO 0.5 INCHES ALONG
SHORE E OF MUNISING...THE REGIONAL GEM IS UPWARDS OF 0.8 INCHES NW
TO OVER 2 INCHES E OF MUNISING. SOMETHING BTWN THE TWO EXTREMES IS
PROBABLY REASONABLE...THOUGH THE REGIONAL GEM LOOKS QUITE EXCESSIVE
OVER THE E. AT THIS POINT...WILL KEEP 12-24HR SNOW AMOUNTS JUST
UNDER LES WARNING THRESHOLDS NW DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE. WITH LOW-LEVEL WINDS ESSENTIALLY W...LES WILL TARGET AREAS
FROM ONTONAGON COUNTY THRU THE KEWEENAW. TO THE E...SLIGHT VEERING
OF WINDS HIGHER IN THE CONVECTIVE LAYER SHOULD TEND TO FOCUS THE SRN
LES BAND ALONG TO JUST INLAND FROM THE SHORE FROM PICTURED ROCKS
EASTWARD. TYPICALLY...THE SRN MOST BAND YIELDS HEAVIEST SNOW RATES
DUE TO LAND BREEZE CONVERGENCE AND THE OVERALL LONG FETCH ACROSS THE
LAKE...ONLY INTERRUPTED BRIEFLY BY THE KEWEENAW. THUS...POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR VERY IMPRESSIVE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER A SMALL AREA OF
THE E CLOSE TO LAKE SUPERIOR...PROVIDED LES BAND DOES NOT SHIFT
OFFSHORE FREQUENTLY. ALSO...DEEP/VIGOROUS CONVECTION AND RELATIVELY
WARM EARLY SEASON WATER/BOUNDARY LAYER MAY LEAD TO MORE GRAUPEL/SNOW
PELLET TYPE PCPN RATHER THAN LARGE SNOWFLAKES...WHICH WILL REDUCE
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER WHAT COULD BE EXPECTED. HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE
A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FOR ALGER/LUCE...EMPHASIZING THE AREAS FROM
AROUND GRAND MARAIS EASTWARD. AWAY FROM LES...DRY WEATHER WILL
GENERALLY PREVAIL THRU THU.
LES WILL WIND DOWN/END LATER THU/THU NIGHT AS MID/UPPER TROF SHIFTS
E OF THE AREA AND FLOW BEGINS TO BACK IN ADVANCE OF TROF
AMPLIFICATION OVER THE WRN CONUS. LEAD WAVE AHEAD OF THE WRN TROF
AMPLIFICATION COMBINED WITH STRONG WAA COULD LEAD TO SOME LIGHT PCPN
LATER THU NIGHT/FRI MORNING. LACK OF MOISTURE MAY RESULT IN PCPN
OCCURRING FARTHER N IN THE COLDER AIR WHERE SATURATION THRU THE
COLUMN CAN OCCUR.
SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT OUT OF THE WRN TROF EARLY IN THE WEEKEND. FOR
SEVERAL DAYS...MODELS HAVE SHOWN UNUSUALLY GOOD CONTINUITY ON SFC
LOW TRACK DESPITE BEING WAY OUT IN THE FCST CYCLE. THERE HAVE BEEN
THE EXPECTED INTENSITY/PLACEMENT ISSUES...BUT THEY WERE MINOR WHEN
CONSIDERING THE TIME RANGE INTO THE FCST RUN. FOR 90 TO 108HRS INTO
THE MODEL RUN...TODAYS 00Z ROUND OF MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS
WELL CLUSTERED ON A LOW TRACK FROM KS TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...
SOMEWHERE BTWN CNTRL UPPER MI AND FAR NRN LWR MI/STRAITS AREA. ALL
SUGGEST A HEADLINE SNOW EVENT FOR SOME PART OF THE FCST AREA...
PROBABLY HIGH END ADVY TYPE. THE WRN MOST LOW TRACK (GFS) WOULD
PROVIDE HEAVIEST SNOW OVER NW UPPER MI WHILE THE ERN TRACKS (GLOBAL
GEM/ECMWF) WOULD SPREAD HEAVIEST SNOW OVER MOSTLY THE CNTRL PORTION
OF UPPER MI.
&&
.AVIATION /FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE/
COLD AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION ON WEST NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND LOW WILL SUPPORT LAKE ENHANCED SNOW OVER IWD
AND CMX...WITH CIGS DROPPING INTO THE MVFR RANGE AND OCNL IFR VSBY.
EXPECT SOME IMPROVEMENT AT IWD TOWARDS MID DAY AS MORE WESTERLY FLOW
PUSHES THE BEST SNOW ACTIVITY NORTH OF THE TAF SITE. AT KCMX...MORE
PERSISTENT LOWER MVFR OR NEAR IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS THE
LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW CONTINUES. LOW LEVEL WINDS TOWARD KSAW
WILL BE LESS FAVORABLE FOR LAKE EFFECT PCPN...BUT MAY SEE CIGS AT OR
NEAR MVFR.
&&
.MARINE /FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE/...
EXPECT WESTERLY GALES TO DIMINISH BY THIS EVENING OVR LK SUPERIOR AS
SFC LOW JUST EAST OF LK SUPERIOR HEADS INTO QUEBEC. WINDS REMAIN OUT
OF THE W/NW UP TO 30 KTS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN BECOME
MORE SOUTHERLY ON FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES TO NORTH OF
LK SUPERIOR. COULD BE MARGINAL SRLY GALES OVR FAR EASTERN SECTIONS
FRIDAY. ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS
ANOTHER LOW OVR THE PLAINS ON SATURDAY TRACKS ACROSS THE LAKE
SUPERIOR REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. NE WINDS COULD REACH GALE FORCE OVR
WESTERN SECTIONS SATURDAY WITH NW GALES THEN POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY FM THE REGION.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ001>003-
084.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOR MIZ006-007.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ248>251-265>267.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ162-
241>243-263-264.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ244-245.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LMZ221-250.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ROLFSON
DISCUSSION...ROLFSON
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
610 AM CST WED NOV 16 2011
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
.DISCUSSION...
A COLD WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW OF AIR WILL COVER THE REGION INTO
THURSDAY. A SHORT WAVE OVER NORTH DAKOTA WILL PROGRESS TO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY TONIGHT. SOME CLOUDINESS OVER CENTRAL
MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI EARLY THIS MORNING WILL PART FOR A TIME
BEFORE ANOTHER SURGE OF LOW CLOUDINESS ARRIVES FOR THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. OUR LOCAL MODEL AND THE RUC PAINT SOME LIGHT
ECHOES ACROSS CENTRAL MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS...SO KEPT THE MENTION OF FLURRIES TO THESE
AREAS. THERE SHOULD BE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE ACROSS SOUTHERN MN
TODAY. THE MIX-DOWN TD TOOL POINTS TO DEW POINT LOWERING TO AROUND
5 DEG C DURING THE AFTERNOON. WE ARE CURRENTLY SEEING SOME SINGLE
DIGIT DEW POINTS NEAR THE SD/NE EARLY THIS MORNING. THE ARW/NMM
WRFS ALSO INDICATE DINGLE DIGIT DEW POINT IN THE SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON. HENCE...BLENDED IN THE MIX DOWN DPS WITH CONSENSUS FOR
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. TRENDED A FEW DEGREES HIGHER ON
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA VERSUS
MET/MAV MOS DUE TO MORE SUNSHINE AND WHAT THE MIX DOWN MAX T WAS
SHOWING.
FLURRIES/CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT OVER THE NORTHERN AND
EASTERN CWA AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN LATE IN THE NIGHT. THE RIDGE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA ON THURSDAY WITH FLOW BECOMING MORE
SOUTHERLY. IT WILL STILL BE A COOL DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 30S.
AS THE RIDGE MOVES EAST THURSDAY NIGHT...A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP
AND MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA. ONLY SOME CLOUDS EXPECTED WITH
THE WARM FRONT. THIS WILL LEAD TO A WARMER FRIDAY WITH HIGHS
REACHING WELL INTO THE 40S IN MOST AREAS WITH SOME 50S IN THE
SOUTH.
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND PRECIPITATION EVENT FOR SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT REMAINS ON TRACK. THE GEM AND ECMWF ARE IN STEP
WITH THIS SYSTEM WHILE THE GFS LAGS BY ABOUT 6 HOURS. THE GFS
ENSEMBLE IS EVEN SLOWER BY ABOUT ANOTHER 6 HOURS. STILL EXPECT A
LOW TO TRACK FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA SATURDAY MORNING TO EASTERN WI
BY SATURDAY NIGHT. ALL SOLUTIONS INDICATE THE LOW SLOWLY FILLING
DURING THIS PERIOD WHICH IS NOTE GOOD FOR A HEAVY SNOW EVENT. WE
ALSO CONTINUE TO SEE AN OPEN WAVE ALOFT WHICH SPEAKS FOR THE
QUICKNESS WITH THIS SYSTEM. LOOKING AT SOME OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
FEATURES SHOWS THE H5 HEIGHT FALL TRACK FROM YELLOW MEDICINE COUNTY
TO BURNETT COUNTY. THE -15 DEG C OMEGA IS ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THIS
TRACK WITH THE DEPTH OF THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE BEING ABOUT
1100M. THE WARM POCKET AT H2 ALSO TRACKS ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED
AXIS WITH 10 DEG OF WARMING NOTED.
THE 295K THETA SURFACE PLACES 700 MB ABOUT IN THIS GENERAL AREA AS
WELL WITH PLENTY OF SATURATION AND ADIABATIC OMEGA NOTED TO THE
NORTH AND WEST. THE MIX RATIO CONTINUES TO RUN BETWEEN 2 AND 3
G/KG AND IS ALIGNED WITH THE -FN VECTOR DIVERGENCE. THIS ALL POINTS
TO A BAND OF 4 TO LOCALLY 6 INCHES FROM WEST CENTRAL MN ON
NORTHEAST TO DULUTH AND HAYWARD. THE CARIBOU SNOW TOOL USING THE GFS
AGREES PRETTY WELL WITH THIS SCENARIO. ALSO INTERESTING IS THE
16/00Z CIPS DATA...BASED ON THE TOP 15 ANALOGS...WHICH SHOWS MEAN
SNOWFALL OF 4 TO 6 FROM WEST CENTRAL MN THROUGH THE ARROWHEAD AND
FAR NORTHERN AREAS OF WI WITH 2 TO 3 INCHES FROM SOUTHWEST MN
THROUGH THE METRO AND ACROSS MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL WI.
IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...A RATHER SUBSTANTIAL HIGH
WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH DRY
WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES OCCURRING.
&&
.AVIATION.../12Z TAF ISSUANCE/
CURRENT 3000-4500FT CEILINGS BEING OBSERVED THIS MORNING IN
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND CENTRAL WILL LARGEST SLIDE EAST
WITH TIME AND BYPASS MOST OF THE TAF SITES. A SECOND WEAKER WAVE
WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AND COULD SHAKE OUT A FEW SNOW
FLURRIES AS WELL. LIKE THE PAST COUPLE DAYS...THE WIND WILL REMAIN
QUITE STRONG OUT OF THE WEST/NORTHWEST AND FINALLY BEGIN TO SUBSIDE
THIS EVENING.
KMSP...VERY LITTLE RISK FOR ANY WEATHER IMPACTS TO AVIATION
OUTSIDE THE WIND...WHICH WILL AGAIN BE QUITE GUSTY BY THIS
AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 15KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25KTS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN MN. SHOULD SEE MORE SUN THAN CLOUD TODAY
AND THE WINDS WILL FINALLY RELAX THIS EVENING AND REMAIN LIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK...FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. CEILING
AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN A
SYSTEM BRINGS ACCUMULATING SNOW TO MN/WI.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
99/99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1052 AM EST WED NOV 16 2011
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL SLIDE EASTWARD BRINGING
SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...INCLUDING SEVERE
WEATHER...TONIGHT INTO THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. MUCH COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE OVERHEAD WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING DURING THE WEEKEND.
ANOTHER FRONT WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM WEDNESDAY...WARM MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES OVER
THE CAROLINAS TODAY IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT NOW LOCATED IN
EASTERN TENNESSEE...NORTHERN ALABAMA...AND MISSISSIPPI. TODAY SHOULD
BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THIS ENTIRE STRING OF MILD WEATHER DATING BACK
TO SUNDAY...WITH THIS AFTERNOON`S HIGHS REACHING THE LOWER 80S
INLAND AWAY FROM MARINE INFLUENCES. 850 MB TEMPS IN THE +15C TO
+16C RANGE WOULD BE MORE AT HOME IN JUNE THAN IN NOVEMBER...AND WILL
SUPPORT THESE VERY MILD READINGS. RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY ARE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S ARE SHOULD REMAIN UNTOUCHED.
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S PLUS A LONG WIND FETCH ACROSS THE COLD
NEARSHORE COASTAL WATERS IS PRODUCING AREAS OF FOG AND VERY LOW
STRATUS CLOUDS OVER THE OCEAN AND SOME OF THE BEACHES. VISIBILITIES
IN THE 0.25 TO 1 MILE RANGE ARE COMMON ON THE BEACHES AND OUT OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS. AS LONG AS THE SUN IS SHINING TODAY THIS FOG
SHOULD HAVE LITTLE SUCCESS MAKING IT MORE THAN 1 MILE INLAND OR
SO...BUT ANY REMAINING FOG THIS EVENING COULD PUSH FARTHER INLAND.
FIRST WE HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS TODAY WITH ALL SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING WE WILL SEE LITTLE IF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER OUR
FORECAST AREA BEFORE DARK. WE DID LEAVE A SMALL 20 POP WEST OF I-95
LATE THIS AFTERNOON WHERE ONE OF THE PREVIOUS THREE HRRR RUNS SHOWS
SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE. THERE IS INSTABILITY (CAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG)
FORECAST TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON BUT TRIGGERS FOR CONVECTION ARE
LARGELY ABSENT.
THE BIG STORY IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER AHEAD OF THE FRONT
TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH SURFACE-BASED CAPE/INSTABILITY IS NOT IMPRESSIVE
AFTER SUNSET THERE IS RATHER LARGE ELEVATED CAPE WHEN PARCELS AT
950/925 MB ARE CONSIDERED. RATHER STEEP LAPSE RATES THROUGH ALL THE
MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF DEEP
CONVECTION. SYNOPTIC FACTORS SUPPORTIVE OF LIFT INCLUDE A
FAVORABLY-POSITIONED JET STREAK MOVING THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION TONIGHT PLACING THE CAROLINAS SQUARELY IN THE FAVORED
RIGHT-ENTRANCE REGION...STRONG AND SLIGHTLY BACKED LOW LEVEL WINDS
RELATIVE TO THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW PRODUCING 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 50-70 KT...AND SEVERAL 500 MB VORTICITY
CENTERS PASSING OVER OR JUST NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THE LATEST
SPC CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK INCREASED SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITIES FOR
WIND AND TORNADOES...AND WE WOULD NOT BE AT ALL SURPRISED TO SEE
TORNADO WATCHES FOR PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...FORECAST MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE
PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT EVER SO SLIGHTLY AND HAVE THEREFORE
EXTENDED POPS ACROSS THE BOARD INTO THE LATE MORNING
HOURS...ESPECIALLY COASTAL AREAS. OTHERWISE INTERESTING
TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY HIGHS AS THE MAV NUMBERS SHOW NO
WARMING IN WILMINGTON WITH LITTLE ELSEWHERE. WITH THE DOWNSLOPE
FLOW AND COLD AIR ADVECTION NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE...DID ADD A DEGREE
OR TWO TO THE MAV NUMBERS. FOR FRIDAY MORNING WINDS DECOUPLE
INLAND WHILE REMAINING UP SLIGHTLY ALONG THE COAST AND ADJUSTED
MOS NUMBERS ACCORDINGLY. COOL DAY FRIDAY WITH MOST AREAS REMAINING
BELOW 60.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST IS RATHER UNEVENTFUL AS
THE PATTERN QUICKLY EVOLVES FROM ZONAL TO RIDGING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST...SIMILAR TO THE PATTERN WE HAVE EXPERIENCED THE PAST
FEW DAYS. HPC IS FAVORING A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF AND UKMET.
REALLY THE ONLY FORECAST CHALLENGES INVOLVE LIGHT COASTAL TROUGH
QPF SATURDAY AND A BACKDOOR FRONT TUESDAY. AS FOR THE
FORMER...MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST AS THE MODELS ARE USUALLY
OVERDONE WITH THE QPF AND IN REALITY IT IS GENERALLY A STRATUS
LAYER. REGARDING THE FRONT...THE LATEST GFS IS MORE BULLISH IN
PUSHING THE FRONT SOUTH WITH THE EFFECTS ONLY BEING AN AIRMASS
CHANGE. THE 0000 UTC ECMWF HAS BACKED OFF A FURTHER SOUTH
SOLUTION. OTHERWISE...AS WE JUST EXPERIENCED...ABOVE NORMAL TO
DOWN RIGHT BALMY CONDITIONS FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
ENTRENCHED OVER MUCH OF THE CWA...A MIXTURE OF STRATUS AND ADVECTION
SEA FOG. EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS...LIFTING OR SCATTERING AROUND 16Z...AS SOUTHWEST FLOW
INCREASES AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. EXPECT MVFR/NEAR VFR CONDITIONS FOR
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...ONLY TO LOWER TO IFR SHORTLY AFTER 00Z.
TONIGHT...DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE CWA...REACHING THE COAST BY 09Z. SHOWERS WILL BE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE COLD
FRONT MAY ACTUALLY HAVE A DRY SLOT WITH IT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS LINGERING THURSDAY MORNING WILL LIFT OUT
BY LATE MORNING WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR. EXPECT VFR FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY...WITH LOWERED CONFIDENCE FOR POTENTIAL IFR FOG/STRATUS
SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM WEDNESDAY...SATELLITE IMAGERY...SURF CAMS...AND
OBSERVATIONS FROM NORTH MYRTLE BEACH AND SOUTHPORT CONTINUE TO
INDICATE EXPANSIVE AREAS OF DENSE SEA FOG THIS MORNING. WE WILL
LIKELY HAVE TO EXTEND THE TIME OF THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY LATER THIS
MORNING AS THE MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING. THERE IS QUITE A THERMAL
GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY REPORTING
AN AIR TEMP OF 75...WHILE 66-67 DEGREE TEMPS ARE BEING REPORTED ON
THE BEACHES NEAR CAPE FEAR.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 15 KT WILL INCREASE FURTHER TONIGHT AS
THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THE INCOMING STRONG COLD FRONT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO INCREASE IN COVERAGE TONIGHT.
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THE ROUGHER CONDITIONS
NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE WHEN TO
CONCLUDE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LATE THURSDAY EVENING. A PERIOD
OF STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY EVENING. FOR NOW WITH THE TIMING STILL OUT FOUR
PERIODS...WILL NOT TWEAK BUT ISSUE THE DISCLAIMER THE HEADLINE MAY
HAVE TO BE EXTENDED A FEW HOURS. WINDS VEER TO NORTHEASTERLY
FRIDAY AND DIMINISH SOMEWHAT TO A MANAGEABLE RANGE OF 15-20 KNOTS
MAINLY TO THE LOWER END. HIGH SEAS EARLY GET CONFINED TO THE OUTER
WATERS WITH THE WIND SHIFT AND REMAIN THERE FOR THE MOST PART.
SOME FIVE TO SIX FOOTERS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS GIVING
THE FRIDAY.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...NORTHEAST FLOW INITIALLY WILL QUICKLY VEER
TO SOUTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AND LEAVES THE WIND FIELD TO
BE FORCED BY LOCAL EFFECTS IE...THE SEABREEZE. THIS WILL OCCUR
LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS WINDS DROP TO BELOW 10 KNOTS. SEAS
FOLLOW A SIMILAR TREND WITH 2-4 FEET INITIALLY DROPPING TO 2-3 FEET.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR AMZ250-252-
254-256.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT EST THURSDAY
NIGHT FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...43
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1010 AM MST WED NOV 16 2011
.DISCUSSION...
301 AM MST WED NOV 16 2011
FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE TODAY...AND THEN HOW FAST IS THE
TEMPERATURE RECOVERY INTO FRIDAY. SATELLITE SHOWING SOME
AMPLIFICATION TO THE FLOW FROM THE WESTERN PACIFIC INTO CENTRAL NORTH
AMERICA. UPPER TROUGH IS STILL HANGING AROUND OVER THE CENTRAL
PORTION OF THE COUNTRY WITH NUMEROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH
IT. COLD FRONT THAT WENT THROUGH EARLIER TODAY EXTENDS FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF COLORADO.
MODELS INITIALIZED FINE AT JET LEVEL. MODELS INITIALIZED FINE AT MID
LEVELS EXCEPT THE GFS WAS TOO MOIST. THE MODELS TENDED TO BE
SLIGHTLY TOO FAR EAST AND SOUTH WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE AND THE LEE
SURFACE TROUGH. HOWEVER...THE NAM WAS PRETTY CLOSE AND SLIGHTLY
BETTER THAN THE ECMWF. ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD OVERALL...THE
CANADIAN...GFS AND UKMET WERE ABOUT THE SAME AND A LITTLE BETTER
WITH THE NAM NOT TOO FAR BEHIND AND MAYBE BETTER TO THE NORTH OF THE
AREA.
TODAY/TONIGHT...INITIAL PROBLEM WILL BE COVERAGE AND DURATION OF
SNOWFALL THIS MORNING AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND LIFT FROM THE
UPPER JET MOVE THROUGH. GOING BY THE DNR 00Z SOUNDING...THE BEST
MOISTURE IS ABOVE 700 MB AND REALITY IS SUPPORTING THAT. SO FAR
VISIBILITIES/OBSERVATIONS AND CAMERAS SHOW LITTLE IF ANY
ACCUMULATION...EVEN UNDER THE MOST INTENSE BAND THAT IS ALONG THE
KANSAS AND NEBRASKA BORDER. TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT SPREADS ARE
LARGE...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH WHERE THE RADAR SAYS THE MOST INTENSE
PRECIPITATION IS. MOST OF THE MODELS SAY THAT MEASURABLE SHOULD BE
OCCURRING AT THIS TIME WITH RUC HAVING THE LEAST MEASURABLE AND
LOOKING THE BEST AT THIS TIME.
RIGHT REAR QUADRANT SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA BY 12Z. 7-5H
SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO BE ENTERING THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA AT THIS TIME. SOME PV MOVES ACROSS EARLY WITH THE BRUNT OF IT
NORTH. DOWNGLIDE ALSO MOVES IN RATHER QUICKLY THIS MORNING. WILL
CONTINUE TO WATCH TRENDS FOR CHANGES BUT PLAN ON TAKING THE
MEASURABLE OUT AND HAVE FLURRIES OVER MOST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING
WITH MAYBE A LITTLE LINGERING IN THE FAR EAST INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON.
QUESTION THEN BECOMES HOW FAST WE CLEAR OUT AND ITS AFFECT ON HIGH
TEMPERATURES. STRONG JET ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH DOES
NOT GET CLOSE TO THE AREA UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY. BASED ON
SATELLITE...WE SHOULD CLEAR OUT RATHER QUICKLY WITH THE MODELS
LOOKING LIKE THEY ARE HANGING ONTO CLOUDS A LITTLE TOO LONG.
CURRENTLY TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING A LITTLE WARMER THAN DEPICTED
BUT CLEARING AND TEMPERATURES UPSTREAM SUPPORT MINS GETTING NEAR
WHAT IS CALLED FOR. MODEL GUIDANCE IS SIMILAR IN ITS DEPICTION AND
MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON LATEST TRENDS/GUIDANCE.
ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM AS IT
EXITS. LOOKS LIKE WILL HAVE GOOD SUBSIDENCE AND ADIABATIC LAPSE
RATES. SO IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF AT LEAST
BREEZY AND GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON BUT DO NOT SEE ANYTHING
GETTING OUT OF HAND.
JET AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT...AND AFFECTS THE
NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA BY 12Z. THAT AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
WILL INCREASE THE CLOUDS AFTER 06Z. NEXT QUESTION WILL BE HOW FAST
THE SURFACE MOVES THROUGH AND HOW FAST DO THE WINDS INCREASE. LIKE
THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER EVOLUTION AND THINK THE GFS IS TOO FAST. AT
THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT EARLY...
ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST AND THEN REMAIN STEADY AFTER THAT.
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE JET REMAINS
NEAR OR OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. SOME DIFFERENCE IN THE AMOUNT
OF CLOUD COVER WITH MOST OF THE MODELS SHOWING A MOSTLY SUNNY TO
A PARTLY SUNNY DAY. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE IN THIS FLOW...CLOUDS
MAY BE A LITTLE MORE THAN CURRENTLY THINK. SHOULD START OFF WITH
DOWNSLOPE WINDS BUT THEN THEY SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AS LEE TROUGH
STRENGTHENS. MODELS DO NOT LOOK AS STRONG ON THE WINDS AS YESTERDAY
AS MIXING AND GRADIENT ARE NOT AS STRONG AS PREVIOUSLY DEPICTED.
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE IN THE EAST. SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE DEPICTED
MAXES. THE 06Z NAM HAS COOLED THINGS OFF A LITTLE FROM 00Z. AT THIS
TIME...WILL TREND TOWARD THE WARMER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE.
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...COMPLEX JET SETUP BEGINS DURING THE DAY.
NORTHERN STREAM REMAINS WELL NORTHWEST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY.
HOWEVER...LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF A SOUTHERN JET DEVELOPS OR
STRENGTHENS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. THERE LOOKS TO BE SOME INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS IN THE
AFTERNOON. CONSIDERING WHAT THE JET IS DOING AND THE STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...LIKE WHAT THE NAM AND ECMWF ARE SHOWING WITH A
STRENGTHENING AND FURTHER WEST LEE TROUGH. THIS MEANS LESS OF A
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT AND IF MODELS ARE CORRECT MORE OF AN EASTERLY
COMPONENT AS THE DAY WHERES ON. SO WILL TREND TOWARD THE COOLER
SIDE OF GUIDANCE.
AS A SIDE NOTE...DUE TO A MORE EASTERLY WIND AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS...
BELIEVE SHOULD NOT SEE ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS DESPITE THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES.
BULLER
FOR THE PERIOD SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY FROM BASE OF WEST COAST MEAN
TROUGH. TRACK OF THE UPPER SYSTEM AND MOISTURE PROFILES SUGGEST FROPA
WILL BE DRY. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT SOMETIME ON SATURDAY. COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW ON
SUNDAY...LOW TO MIDDLE 40S FOR HIGHS...WHICH IS AROUND 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. RETURN FLOW GETS UNDER WAY FOR MONDAY UNDER SHORTWAVE
RIDGING ALOFT WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL AND CONTINUED
DRY. REMNANTS OF WEST COAST SYSTEM COMES ACROSS SOUTHERN ROCKIES ON
TUESDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF MAINLY RAIN...BEST CHANCES WILL BE
SOUTH. 024
THANKS TO ALL THAT COLLABORATED.
&&
.AVIATION...
1010 AM MST WED NOV 16 2011
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
EFFECTIVE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK. MVFR CIGS/VIS ASSOCIATED
WITH LINGERING LIGHT SNOW OVER KMCK CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO
VFR BY 18Z BASED ON CURRENT RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR TRENDS UP TO TAF ISSUANCE IN THE EVENT SNOW IS SLOWER TO
MOVE EAST OF THE TERMINAL. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS STILL EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH...BEFORE
DECREASING AROUND 00Z AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN OVER THE
REGION AND DAYTIME MIXING COMES TO AN END. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
12-14KT FROM THE WEST TO THE EAST 09-12Z THU IN RESPONSE TO LEE
TROUGH DEVELOPMENT OVER EASTERN COLORADO.
DR
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
149 PM EST WED NOV 16 2011
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHERN MID
ATLANTIC REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNING LATE THURSDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT APPROACHES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK STATIONARY FRONT IS SITUATED WSW TO ENE ACRS THE CWA...FROM
ABOUT FARMVILLE TO ASHLAND INTO THE MD EASTERN SHORE. STRONG
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT IN PLACE...AS WELL AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES
OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS. WILL CARRY CAT POPS N/NW ZONES THIS
AFTN...TAPERED TO JUST 20% OVER FAR SE VA/ NE NC. HAVE ADJUSTED
HIGHS A BIT TO SHARPEN THE GRADIENT AS IT WILL TEND TO STAY IN THE
60S OVER THE MD EASTERN SHORE AND TO THE NW OF RICHMOND...WHILE
HIGHS AROUND 80 CAN BE EXPECTED IN A FEW SPOTS IN THE SE.
WHILE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTN...THINK
THAT BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WX WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL THE EVENING
HRS...PRIMARILY ACRS SE VA/NE NC. DOWN THAT WAY IS WHERE BEST COMBINATION
OF MODEST SFC-BASED INSTABILITY (~500 J/KG) WILL CO- EXIST WITH
HIGH SHEAR (0-6 KM BULK SHEAR 60 KT+) . MAIN THREAT WOULD BE DAMAGING
WINDS (>40 KT OF 0-3 KM SHEAR AND DCAPE>1000 J/KG). ALSO...SOME
STORMS MAY EXHIBIT ROTATION AS RUC AND NAM BOTH PROG 0-1 KM HELICITIES>300
M2/S2 AS THE BOUNDARY DROPS THROUGH BETWEEN 02-06Z. MAIN LIMITING
FACTOR MAY BE LACK OF INSTABILITY DUE TO THE TIMEFRAME BEING AFTER
SUNSET ALTHOUGH SFC TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE AROUND 70 F...WITH DEW
PTS IN THE 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BEST PROBABILITY FOR RAIN (CATEGORICAL POPS) COMES TONIGHT DUE TO
A COMBO OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND STRONG LOW/MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED W/ COLD FRONT. RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES AND SOME
AREAS MAY RECEIVE OVER AN INCH TOTAL W/ THIS SYSTEM (ESP N PART OF
FA). NO SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED ATTM DUE TO FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE BEING HIGH.
THU...BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH NOT CROSSING THE REGION UNTIL AFTER 18Z. COMBINED
WITH A NNE FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS AND THE RRQ OF THE UPPER JET...RAIN
WILL BE SLOW TO TAPER OFF AND HAVE BUMPED POPS TO CATEGORICAL FOR
ALL ZONES THROUGH THE MORNING/EARLY AFTN HRS. SHARPLY COLDER
AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE AS WELL...MAKING FOR A RAW AND CHILLY DAY
WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 40S (AFTER EARLY AM HIGHS IN THE
50S). DECREASING CLOUDS FROM W TO E LATE (SO THAT COASTAL ZONES
MAY STAY CLOUDY ALL DAY). DIMINISHING WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES
WILL ALLOW FOR MINS INTO THE UPPER 20S WEST OF I-95 THU
NIGHT...30-35 FARTHER EAST.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC FRI LEADING TO
DRY WX AND SUNNY SKIES. TEMPS WILL ONLY MAX OUT IN THE U40S-L50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SHOWING A SOUTHWEST
UPPER LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPING SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES
ANCHORED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH SUNDAY. SOME
CLOUDINESS IS POSSIBLE IN NORTHEAST NC AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST VA ON
SATURDAY AS TROPICAL MOISTURE ROTATES AROUND A MID-LEVEL HIGH OFF
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST AND MOVES NEAR THIS AREA. OTHERWISE...A
DRYING AND WARMING TREND IS ANTICIPATED UNDER THIS FLOW
REGIME...WITH HIGH TEMPS REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE 60S BY SUNDAY.
LOWS SHOULD BE NEAR FREEZING SATURDAY MORNING DUE TO PRIME COOLING
CONDITIONS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH VERY LIGHT WINDS...THEN
REBOUND TOWARD THE LOW 50S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS CLOUDS INCREASE
AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER DISTURBANCE.
BY LATE SUNDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SAG SOUTHWARD AND
STALL OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. 12Z MODEL RUNS
TODAY ARE HINTING AT SLOWING THE SOUTHERN MOVEMENT OF THIS BOUNDARY
UNTIL LATE MONDAY...WHICH WOULD DELAY THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION
UNTIL THAT TIMEFRAME. HAVE TRENDED THE ONGOING FORECAST TOWARD
SLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT UNTIL LATE MONDAY...WITH
PRECIPITATION BEING INTRODUCED LATE SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK SFC BOUNDARY LYING ACROSS THE REGION WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY
MOVG FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. MOST
OF THE RAIN HAS MOVED ACROSS CENTRAL VA AND THE EASTERN SHORE THIS
MORNING BUT WILL OVERSPREAD SE VA AND NC INTO TONIGHT. RADAR
SHOWING SOME EMBEDDED CONVECTION IN THE RAIN WHICH WILL BRING
BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. CEILINGS HAVE BEEN
MOSTLY MVFR/IFR THIS MORNING AND THIS WILL GENERALLY PERSIST THRU
THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. ANOTHER BOUNDARY (COLD FRONT)
WILL MOVE THRU THE FORECAST AREA BEGINNING EARLY TONIGHT AND
SHOULD BE PUSHED OFF THE COAST BY THU MORNING. MODELS SUGGEST THAT
AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THRU
THE REGION AND THIS WILL HELP TO ENHANCE CHANCE OF HEAVY RAIN OR
ISOLD TSTMS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. EXPECT MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS
WITH TEMPO IFR THRU THE OVERNIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LATE THU AND WILL SETTLE OVER THE
AREA THU NIGHT INTO FRI. VFR AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU
THE WEEKEND.
&&
.MARINE...
HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA HEADLINE FOR ALL THE WTRS THRU LATE THU
NGT...AS NNW WNDS (CAA) WILL CONTINUE AT 15 TO 25 KT AND
WAVES/SEAS WILL STAY UP. SE OR S WNDS 10 KT OR LESS ERLY THIS
MORNG...WILL BECOME SW AND INCRS TO 15 TO 20 KT THIS AFTN IN
ADVANCE OF COLD FRNT. CUD BE GUSTS TO 25 KT. WNDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE NW OR N THIS EVENG INTO ERLY THU MORNG BEHIND THE FRNT. THIS
CAA SURGE WILL THEN CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THU AND THU NGT.
MORE BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED FRI INTO SUN...AS HI
PRES BLDS OVR THE WTRS FM THE W.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR NOV 16TH (WED):
RIC...85 IN 1955
ORF...83 IN 1955
SBY...78 IN 1928
ECG...85 IN 1993
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ630>634-650-
652-654-656-658.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB/MAS
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...JEF
MARINE...TMG
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
1145 AM EST WED NOV 16 2011
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHERN MID
ATLANTIC REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNING LATE THURSDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT APPROACHES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT/...
WEAK STATIONARY FRONT IS SITUATED WSW TO ENE ACRS THE CWA...FROM
ABOUT FARMVILLE TO ASHLAND INTO THE MD EASTERN SHORE. STRONG
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT IN PLACE...AS WELL AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES
OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS. WILL CARRY CAT POPS N/NW ZONES THIS
AFTN...TAPERED TO JUST 20% OVER FAR SE VA/ NE NC. HAVE ADJUSTED
HIGHS A BIT TO SHARPEN THE GRADIENT AS IT WILL TEND TO STAY IN THE
60S OVER THE MD EASTERN SHORE AND TO THE NW OF RICHMOND...WHILE
HIGHS AROUND 80 CAN BE EXPECTED IN A FEW SPOTS IN THE SE.
WHILE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTN...THINK
THAT BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WX WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL THE EVENING
HRS...PRIMARILY ACRS SE VA/NE NC. DOWN THAT WAY IS WHERE BEST COMBINATION
OF MODEST SFC-BASED INSTABILITY (~500 J/KG) WILL CO- EXIST WITH
HIGH SHEAR (0-6 KM BULK SHEAR 60 KT+) . MAIN THREAT WOULD BE DAMAGING
WINDS (>40 KT OF 0-3 KM SHEAR AND DCAPE>1000 J/KG). ALSO...SOME
STORMS MAY EXHIBIT ROTATION AS RUC AND NAM BOTH PROG 0-1 KM HELICITIES>300
M2/S2 AS THE BOUNDARY DROPS THROUGH BETWEEN 02-06Z. MAIN LIMITING
FACTOR MAY BE LACK OF INSTABILITY DUE TO THE TIMEFRAME BEING AFTER
SUNSET ALTHOUGH SFC TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE AROUND 70 F...WITH DEW
PTS IN THE 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BEST PROBABILITY FOR RAIN (CATEGORICAL POPS) COMES TONIGHT DUE TO
A COMBO OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND STRONG LOW/MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED W/ COLD FRONT. RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES AND SOME
AREAS MAY RECEIVE OVER AN INCH TOTAL W/ THIS SYSTEM (ESP N PART OF
FA). NO SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED ATTM DUE TO FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE BEING HIGH.
THU...BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH NOT CROSSING THE REGION UNTIL AFTER 18Z. COMBINED
WITH A NNE FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS AND THE RRQ OF THE UPPER JET...RAIN
WILL BE SLOW TO TAPER OFF AND HAVE BUMPED POPS TO CATEGORICAL FOR
ALL ZONES THROUGH THE MORNING/EARLY AFTN HRS. SHARPLY COLDER
AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE AS WELL...MAKING FOR A RAW AND CHILLY DAY
WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 40S (AFTER EARLY AM HIGHS IN THE
50S). DECREASING CLOUDS FROM W TO E LATE (SO THAT COASTAL ZONES
MAY STAY CLOUDY ALL DAY). DIMINISHING WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES
WILL ALLOW FOR MINS INTO THE UPPER 20S WEST OF I-95 THU
NIGHT...30-35 FARTHER EAST.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC FRI LEADING TO
DRY WX AND SUNNY SKIES. TEMPS WILL ONLY MAX OUT IN THE U40S-L50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SHOWING A SOUTHWEST
UPPER LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPING SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES
ANCHORED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH SUNDAY. SOME
CLOUDINESS IS POSSIBLE IN NORTHEAST NC AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST VA ON
SATURDAY AS TROPICAL MOISTURE ROTATES AROUND A MID-LEVEL HIGH OFF
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST AND MOVES NEAR THIS AREA. OTHERWISE...A
DRYING AND WARMING TREND IS ANTICIPATED UNDER THIS FLOW
REGIME...WITH HIGH TEMPS REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE 60S BY SUNDAY.
LOWS SHOULD BE NEAR FREEZING SATURDAY MORNING DUE TO PRIME COOLING
CONDITIONS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH VERY LIGHT WINDS...THEN
REBOUND TOWARD THE LOW 50S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS CLOUDS INCREASE
AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER DISTURBANCE.
BY LATE SUNDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SAG SOUTHWARD AND
STALL OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. 12Z MODEL RUNS
TODAY ARE HINTING AT SLOWING THE SOUTHERN MOVEMENT OF THIS BOUNDARY
UNTIL LATE MONDAY...WHICH WOULD DELAY THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION
UNTIL THAT TIMEFRAME. HAVE TRENDED THE ONGOING FORECAST TOWARD
SLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT UNTIL LATE MONDAY...WITH
PRECIPITATION BEING INTRODUCED LATE SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRNT WILL APPROACH THE AREA THRU THIS MORNG...THEN DROP ACRS
THE REGION THIS AFTN THRU TNGT. CIGS/VSBYS WILL QUICKLY LWR TO
MVFR THEN IFR (LIFR?) DURING THIS MORNG WITH -DZ OR SCTD -SHRAS
MOVNG INTO NRN AND WRN AREAS. CIGS/VSBYS WILL LIKELY LIFT TO MVFR
AND VFR CONDITIONS LATER THIS MORNG AND AFTN...AS SW WNDS INCRS IN
ADVANCE OF FRNT...WITH ISLTD TO SCTD SHRAS AHEAD OF AND ALNG THE
FRNTL BNDRY INTO THIS EVENG. DURING THIS EVENG INTO THU
MORNG...IFR (LIFR?) CONDITIONS WITH -RA EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRNT.
VFR AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN THU AFTN THRU SUN.
&&
.MARINE...
HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA HEADLINE FOR ALL THE WTRS THRU LATE THU
NGT...AS NNW WNDS (CAA) WILL CONTINUE AT 15 TO 25 KT AND
WAVES/SEAS WILL STAY UP. SE OR S WNDS 10 KT OR LESS ERLY THIS
MORNG...WILL BECOME SW AND INCRS TO 15 TO 20 KT THIS AFTN IN
ADVANCE OF COLD FRNT. CUD BE GUSTS TO 25 KT. WNDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE NW OR N THIS EVENG INTO ERLY THU MORNG BEHIND THE FRNT. THIS
CAA SURGE WILL THEN CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THU AND THU NGT.
MORE BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED FRI INTO SUN...AS HI
PRES BLDS OVR THE WTRS FM THE W.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR NOV 16TH (WED):
RIC...85 IN 1955
ORF...83 IN 1955
SBY...78 IN 1928
ECG...85 IN 1993
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ630>634-650-
652-654-656-658.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB/MAS
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG
CLIMATE...AKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
422 PM EST WED NOV 16 2011
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND THURSDAY/...
POTENT SHORTWAVE THAT MOVED THROUGH THE CWA LAST NIGHT WILL CONTINUE
NE THROUGH QUEBEC TONIGHT...LEAVING THE AREA UNDER AN UPPER TROUGH
FOR MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. LOW/MID LVL MOISTURE BEHIND THE
WAVE HAS SETTLED OVER THE NE HALF OF THE CWA TODAY AND IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THURS. THIS HAS AIDED SOME
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE ERN LK THROUGH THE DAY. THESE BANDS HAVE
A NW TO SE APPEARANCE DUE TO THE NW WINDS ALOFT...BUT THE LLVL WINDS
W TO WNW WINDS HAVE BEEN GRADUALLY PUSHING THEM E. DRIER LLVL AIR
OVER WRN LK SUPERIOR HAS TRIED TO LIMIT LES EXTENT OVER THE WRN
U.P...BUT AN ADDITIONAL AREA OF LOW/MID LVL MOISTURE OVER NRN MN
/PRODUCING SCATTERED SHSN/ SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS
EVENING.
WITH THE AREA BETWEEN THE HIGH TO THE SW AND THE EXITING LOW IN
QUEBEC...EXPECT WNW FLOW TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURS. A LINGERING
TROUGH FROM THE EXITING LOW OVER ERN LK SUPERIOR FOR TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WILL HELP TO FOCUS WINDS A LITTLE MORE OUT OF THE NW OVER
NRN LUCE AND FAR ERN ALGER COUNTY AND INCREASE THE LLVL CONVERGENCE
IN THAT AREA. RUC ANALYSIS OF H850 TEMPS SHOWS VALUES RANGING FROM
-11C OVER WRN LK SUPERIOR TO -8C OVER ERN LK SUPERIOR. THESE TEMPS
SHOULD FALL A COUPLE DEGREES BY 12Z THURS WITH THE SECONDARY SURGE
OF COLD AIR BEHIND A WEAK H850 TROUGH AND REMAIN THROUGH THE DAY
THURS. THIS CREATES DELTA-T VALUES IN THE UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE LK
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OVER THE W...PARAMETERS HAVE REALLY COME TOGETHER FOR MODERATE TO
POTENTIALLY HEAVY LES TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. WITH THE
SLIGHTLY COLDER H850 TEMPS THERE...EXPECT MUCH OF THE LK INDUCED
FORCING TO BE RIGHT IN THE DGZ. MODELS STILL HINTING AT LLVL DRY AIR
OVER THE WRN CWA KEEPING CLOUD BASES NEAR 3KFT THROUGH THIS
EVENING...WHICH WILL LIMIT THE DEPTH OF THE CLOUD WITH EQL VALUES
FROM 7-10KFT. BUT H925-850 MOISTURE CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER NRN MN
SHOULD PUSH OVER WRN LK SUPERIOR AND THE WRN CWA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING. THIS SHOULD PROVIDED ADDITIONAL LLVL
MOISTURE TO REALLY ENHANCE THE LES IN THE WNW FAVORED LOCATIONS. LES
PARAMETER IS SHOWING THIS WELL...WITH A DIMINISHING TREND LATE THIS
AFTN AND INTO THE EVENING...BEFORE GREATLY INCREASING OVERNIGHT AND
INTO THURS MORNING. BIGGEST CONCERN IS THE WHAT THE EQL WILL BE.
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS DO HAVE SOME VARIABILITY ON IF THE EQL/S WILL RISE
TOWARDS 12-15KFT OVERNIGHT INTO THURS MORNING...WHICH DEPENDS ON A
DEGREE F OR TWO DIFFERENCE IN THE LK TEMPS. IF THAT OCCURS...COULD
SEE SNOW AMOUNTS BEING HIGHER THAN EXPECTED. FELT THE CURRENT
FORECAST WAS ON TRACK WITH HIGH END ADVISORY AMOUNTS WHERE THERE
WILL LIKELY BE ENHANCED CONVERGENCE OVER NRN ONTONAGON AND CENTRAL
HOUGHTON COUNTIES. THE EVENING SHIFT WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS AND
IF THE SNOW BECOMES HEAVY EARLIER THAN EXPECTED...MAY NEED TO BUMP
UP THE ADVY TO A WARNING.
OVER THE E...WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND EQL NEAR 15KFT FROM THE
EXITING WAVE...LES PARAMETERS ARE MUCH BETTER IN THIS AREA AND
SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW. THERE POTENTIALLY TWO
LIMITING FACTORS ON SNOW AMOUNTS REACHING WARNING CRITERIA.
FIRST...PREVIOUS SHIFT MENTIONED THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW PELLETS OR
GRAUPEL AT TIMES TONIGHT...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE THIS EVENING WITH
THE SLIGHTLY WARMER H850 TEMPS KEEPING THE BEST OMEGA BELOW THE DGZ.
BUT...AS TEMPS COOL OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE H850 TROUGH...EXPECT A
TRANSITION TO MAINLY SNOW. SECOND...THE WIND DIRECTION REMAINS A
CONCERN FOR TONIGHT. WITH NW WINDS SHIFTING MORE WRLY THROUGH THE
DAY TODAY...THE MAIN PCPN HAS BEEN RUNNING NEARLY PARALLEL TO SHORE
THIS AFTN. MODELS SHOW A SLIGHT WNW SHIFT TO THE H925 WINDS THIS
EVENING...BUT NOT SURE IF THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO SLIDE THE DOMINATE
BAND ONSHORE FROM GRAND MARAIS EAST ALONG THE LUCE COUNTY SHORELINE.
WITH THE GEM/ECMWF/GFS AND LOCAL WRF SHOWING THE LINGERING SFC
TROUGH TIGHTENING UP OVER THE FAR ERN LK OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND
DROPPING SE THURS MORNING...EXPECT THIS TO SHIFT THE WINDS NW ENOUGH
TO PUSH THE DOMINATE BAND INTO LUCE COUNTY. THUS...WITH
MODERATE/HEAVY SNOW...ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS UP TO 30MPH...HAVE
SWITCHED THE LES WATCH OVER TO A WARNING FOR LUCE. WITH THE
UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE BAND FOR THE GRAND MARAIS
AREA OF ALGER...HAVE SWITCHED THAT WATCH OVER TO AN LES ADVY...BUT
THERE REMAINS SOME BUST POTENTIAL BOTH WAYS. EXPECT THIS PERIOD OF
HEAVY SNOW TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURS MORNING UNDER THE NW WINDS.
CURRENT FORECAST HAS SNOWFALL AMOUNTS EXCEEDING A FOOT FOR PORTIONS
OF NRN LUCE COUNTY BY 00Z FRI.
DRIER MID LVL AIR BEGINS TO MOVE OVER THE SW HALF OF THE CWA THURS
AFTN...LOWERING THE EQL/S TOWARDS 5-6KFT BY 00Z FRI. THIS WILL
DIMINISH THE INTENSITY OF THE SHOWERS OVER THE W. OVER THE E...THESE
LESS FAVORABLE LES CONDITIONS DON/T ARRIVE UNTIL LATE THURS AFTN AND
INTO THURS EVENING AND HAVE ENDED THE WARNING AT 00Z.
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE SFC MAP AT 00Z STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY WILL
EXTEND A RIDGE ACROSS WI AND WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH A WEAK SFC
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE MAIN LOW OVER FAR EASTERN CANADA TO JUST
EAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS WILL ALLOW THE FOCUS FOR HEAVIER SNOW TO
DIMINISH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH NW WINDS BECOMING MORE AND MORE
WESTERLY AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES.
THE HIGH AMPLITUDE 500MB RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
WESTERN CANADA WILL FLATTEN AS IT SLIDES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND SOUTHERN MANITOBA BY 00Z FRIDAY. IT WILL STILL BE ENOUGH TO AT
LEAST TEMPORARILY SWEEP THE TROUGHS EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THE MAIN CULPRIT WILL
BUDGE LITTLE OVER THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK...THAT BEING THE
500MB LOW SPINNING NEAR HUDSON BAY.
THE FAST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL RETURN...WITH THE APEX OF THE RIDGE
EXITING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. ONE TROUGH
OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA AT 00Z SATURDAY SHOULD CROSS ONTARIO SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. BEHIND THIS FEATURE A MORE DISTINCT TROUGH WILL
WASH OUT ALONG THE CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER...WITH A BROAD TROUGH
EXPECTED ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND UPPER MI SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH
NEXT TUESDAY NIGHT. THE RESULT AT THE SFC WILL BE THE WEAKENING OF
THE 995MB SFC LOW CENTERED ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AT 00Z
FRIDAY...TO 1003MB BY 00Z SATURDAY JUST NW OF LAKE SUPERIOR. EVEN
WITH THE WEAKENING OF THIS SYSTEM THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL RESULT IN STRONGER SW WINDS AT THE SFC FRIDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY
EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. THE RESULT WILL
BE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SFC EXTENDING BETWEEN 2 STRONGER
LOW OVER HUDSON BAY AND KANSAS AT 12Z SATURDAY OVER THE EAST HALF.
LOOK FOR A LOW TO PUSH NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THIS TROUGH FROM THE
CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN PLAINS. MODELS CONTINUE TO PLAY THE LOW TRACKING
NEAR THE STRAITS AROUND 06Z SUNDAY...WITH THE NAM FARTHEST
NORTH...AND THE ECMWF ON THE SOUTHERN END OF THE FORECAST ENVELOP.
THE CANADIAN LOOKS TO BE ABOUT 6 HOURS SLOW. MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF UPPER MI
UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
LOOKING A BIT FARTHER OUT...THERE ARE A COUPLE OF 500MB WAVES WITHIN
THE BROAD TROUGH /WESTERLY FLOW/ THAT ARE DIFFICULT TO FORECAST. THE
FIRST WAVE FOR MONDAY IS MORE DISTINCT OFF THE 16/12Z RUN OF THE
GFS...BUT IS SIMILAR TIMING WISE...BUT IS MUCH WEAKER THAN WHAT IS
SHOWN OFF THE 16/00Z ECMWF. THE CANADIAN IS OUT OF PHASE WITH THE
GFS AND ECMWF STARTING AROUND 12Z MONDAY...OR ABOUT 6 HOURS SLOWER.
A SIMILAR TREND WAS NOTED WITH THE TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WEAK
TROUGH...WHERE THE GFS TIGHTENED UP THE TROUGH A BIT MORE THAN THE
ECMWF. FORECAST MODELS ARE ABOVE NORMAL CONSISTENCY WISE FOR NEXT
WEDNESDAY...WITH A LARGE 500MB RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE PLAINS
STATES.
&&
.AVIATION /FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
COLD AIR MOVING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR WILL PRODUCE CLOUDS AND LAKE
EFFECT SNOW FOR THE WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND SNOW BELTS FOR THE TAF
PERIOD. THIS WILL LARGELY AFFECT KCMX WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS AND
IFR VSBYS. WITH KIWD NOT BEING UNDER FAVORABLE FLOW FOR SNOW...HAVE
LEFT OUT MENTION...BUT DID KEEP MVFR CIGS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD
FROM MOISTURE CURRENTLY IN NRN MN. KSAW WILL MAINLY SEE VFR
CONDITIONS...BUT COULD SEE SOME BRIEF MVFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW MORNING FROM STRONGER LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS OVER NORTHERN
ONTONAGON COUNTY.
&&
.MARINE /FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE/...
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS CENTRAL ONTARIO WILL KEEP A WEAK TROUGH ACROSS
EASTERN LS OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL ASSIST IN FOCUSING THE STRONGER
GALE FORCE WINDS OF 35KTS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF LS THROUGH THIS
EVENING. LOOK FOR A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH GUSTS CONTINUING 20 TO 30KTS. LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN THURSDAY NIGHT WILL FILL SLIGHTLY JUST
NORTH OF LS FRIDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...STRONG SW WINDS
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT MAY RESULT IN A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS ACROSS
EASTERN LS. EXPECT A NEARLY STATIONARY TROUGH OVER EASTERN LS ON
SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY WILL MOVE
ALONG THE TROUGH...FILLING SLIGHTLY ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
BY SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF NE GALES TO 35KT SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THAT MAY TRANSITION ACROSS THE ENTIRE LAKE AS WINDS TURN
MORE NORTHWESTERLY AS THE LOW EXITS NE. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD SLIDE
IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY...BEFORE SLOWLY DIPPING TO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES ON MONDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ001>003-
084.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
THURSDAY FOR MIZ007.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM EST
THURSDAY FOR MIZ006.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ248>251-265>267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...SRF
MARINE...SRF/SF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1233 PM EST WED NOV 16 2011
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAFS
.SYNOPSIS...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS
MOST OF THE CONUS WITH AXIS ROUGHLY OVER THE WRN PLAINS. A VIGOROUS
LOOKING SHORTWAVE IS TRACKING THRU THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ATTM. LIKE
ITS PREDECESSOR 24-30HRS AGO...THIS SYSTEM PRODUCED SOME LIGHTNING
STRIKES ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR EARLIER IN THE NIGHT. THE MORE
SIGNIFICANT PCPN WITH WAVE HAS PASSED MOSTLY N OF UPPER MI...
JUST N OF THE VORT TRACK ACROSS NRN UPPER MI/SRN LAKE SUPERIOR.
UPSTREAM...850MB TEMPS RANGE FROM -7C AT KINL TO -10C KBIS AND -12C
AT CYQD. WHILE 00Z KBIS SOUNDING SHOWED DRYNESS IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER...KINL AND CQYD SOUNDINGS SHOWED DEEP MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY
CYQD. THIS UPSTREAM COMBINATION OF COLD AIR/DEEP MOISTURE SUGGESTS
AN ACTIVE LES PERIOD SHOULD BE ON THE WAY OVER THE NEXT 36HRS AS
TROF AXIS TO THE W SHIFTS E.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
FCST CONCERNS INVOLVE LES LOCATION/INTENSITY AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
THRU THURSDAY AND THEN POSSIBLE WINTER STORM FOR THE WEEKEND.
GIVEN FAVORABLE INSTABILITY/MOISTURE...SOMEWHAT PUZZLED BY THE
RELATIVELY LIGHT PCPN INDICATED BY THE NAM/GFS FOR THE LES TODAY
THRU THU...BUT THERE MAY BE A REASON. WHILE DEEPER MOISTURE EVIDENT
ON CYQD/KINL SOUNDINGS WILL REACH THE AREA...THE FLOW IN THE
LOW-LEVELS IS MORE WRLY...WHICH MAY SUPPORT SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR IN
THE BOUNDARY LAYER AS SUGGESTED BY THE KBIS SOUNDING. BOTH THE NAM
AND GFS HINT AT THAT...BUT THE NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS AREN`T REALLY THAT
DRY. WITH DEEP MOISTURE UWPARDS OF 8-10KFT AND DGZ DESCENDING MORE
FIRMLY INTO THE CONVECTIVE LAYER UNDER CAA REGIME...HAVE TO BELIEVE
LES WILL BE MORE SIGNIFICANT THAN THE NAM/GFS INDICATE. REGIONAL GEM
IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH PCPN AMOUNTS. WHILE THE NAM HAS 12Z
WED-00Z FRI PCPN AMOUNTS UP TO 0.4 INCHES NW TO 0.5 INCHES ALONG
SHORE E OF MUNISING...THE REGIONAL GEM IS UPWARDS OF 0.8 INCHES NW
TO OVER 2 INCHES E OF MUNISING. SOMETHING BTWN THE TWO EXTREMES IS
PROBABLY REASONABLE...THOUGH THE REGIONAL GEM LOOKS QUITE EXCESSIVE
OVER THE E. AT THIS POINT...WILL KEEP 12-24HR SNOW AMOUNTS JUST
UNDER LES WARNING THRESHOLDS NW DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE. WITH LOW-LEVEL WINDS ESSENTIALLY W...LES WILL TARGET AREAS
FROM ONTONAGON COUNTY THRU THE KEWEENAW. TO THE E...SLIGHT VEERING
OF WINDS HIGHER IN THE CONVECTIVE LAYER SHOULD TEND TO FOCUS THE SRN
LES BAND ALONG TO JUST INLAND FROM THE SHORE FROM PICTURED ROCKS
EASTWARD. TYPICALLY...THE SRN MOST BAND YIELDS HEAVIEST SNOW RATES
DUE TO LAND BREEZE CONVERGENCE AND THE OVERALL LONG FETCH ACROSS THE
LAKE...ONLY INTERRUPTED BRIEFLY BY THE KEWEENAW. THUS...POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR VERY IMPRESSIVE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER A SMALL AREA OF
THE E CLOSE TO LAKE SUPERIOR...PROVIDED LES BAND DOES NOT SHIFT
OFFSHORE FREQUENTLY. ALSO...DEEP/VIGOROUS CONVECTION AND RELATIVELY
WARM EARLY SEASON WATER/BOUNDARY LAYER MAY LEAD TO MORE GRAUPEL/SNOW
PELLET TYPE PCPN RATHER THAN LARGE SNOWFLAKES...WHICH WILL REDUCE
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER WHAT COULD BE EXPECTED. HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE
A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FOR ALGER/LUCE...EMPHASIZING THE AREAS FROM
AROUND GRAND MARAIS EASTWARD. AWAY FROM LES...DRY WEATHER WILL
GENERALLY PREVAIL THRU THU.
LES WILL WIND DOWN/END LATER THU/THU NIGHT AS MID/UPPER TROF SHIFTS
E OF THE AREA AND FLOW BEGINS TO BACK IN ADVANCE OF TROF
AMPLIFICATION OVER THE WRN CONUS. LEAD WAVE AHEAD OF THE WRN TROF
AMPLIFICATION COMBINED WITH STRONG WAA COULD LEAD TO SOME LIGHT PCPN
LATER THU NIGHT/FRI MORNING. LACK OF MOISTURE MAY RESULT IN PCPN
OCCURRING FARTHER N IN THE COLDER AIR WHERE SATURATION THRU THE
COLUMN CAN OCCUR.
SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT OUT OF THE WRN TROF EARLY IN THE WEEKEND. FOR
SEVERAL DAYS...MODELS HAVE SHOWN UNUSUALLY GOOD CONTINUITY ON SFC
LOW TRACK DESPITE BEING WAY OUT IN THE FCST CYCLE. THERE HAVE BEEN
THE EXPECTED INTENSITY/PLACEMENT ISSUES...BUT THEY WERE MINOR WHEN
CONSIDERING THE TIME RANGE INTO THE FCST RUN. FOR 90 TO 108HRS INTO
THE MODEL RUN...TODAYS 00Z ROUND OF MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS
WELL CLUSTERED ON A LOW TRACK FROM KS TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...
SOMEWHERE BTWN CNTRL UPPER MI AND FAR NRN LWR MI/STRAITS AREA. ALL
SUGGEST A HEADLINE SNOW EVENT FOR SOME PART OF THE FCST AREA...
PROBABLY HIGH END ADVY TYPE. THE WRN MOST LOW TRACK (GFS) WOULD
PROVIDE HEAVIEST SNOW OVER NW UPPER MI WHILE THE ERN TRACKS (GLOBAL
GEM/ECMWF) WOULD SPREAD HEAVIEST SNOW OVER MOSTLY THE CNTRL PORTION
OF UPPER MI.
&&
.AVIATION /FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
COLD AIR MOVING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR WILL PRODUCE CLOUDS AND LAKE
EFFECT SNOW FOR THE WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND SNOW BELTS FOR THE TAF
PERIOD. THIS WILL LARGELY AFFECT KCMX WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS AND
IFR VSBYS. WITH KIWD NOT BEING UNDER FAVORABLE FLOW FOR SNOW...HAVE
LEFT OUT MENTION...BUT DID KEEP MVFR CIGS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD
FROM MOISTURE CURRENTLY IN NRN MN. KSAW WILL MAINLY SEE VFR
CONDITIONS...BUT COULD SEE SOME BRIEF MVFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW MORNING FROM STRONGER LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS OVER NORTHERN
ONTONAGON COUNTY.
&&
.MARINE /FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE/...
EXPECT WESTERLY GALES TO DIMINISH BY THIS EVENING OVR LK SUPERIOR AS
SFC LOW JUST EAST OF LK SUPERIOR HEADS INTO QUEBEC. WINDS REMAIN OUT
OF THE W/NW UP TO 30 KTS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN BECOME
MORE SOUTHERLY ON FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES TO NORTH OF
LK SUPERIOR. COULD BE MARGINAL SRLY GALES OVR FAR EASTERN SECTIONS
FRIDAY. ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS
ANOTHER LOW OVR THE PLAINS ON SATURDAY TRACKS ACROSS THE LAKE
SUPERIOR REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. NE WINDS COULD REACH GALE FORCE OVR
WESTERN SECTIONS SATURDAY WITH NW GALES THEN POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY FM THE REGION.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ001>003-
084.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM 7 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR MIZ006-007.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ248>251-265>267.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ162-
244-245.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
LSZ241>243-263-264.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ROLFSON
DISCUSSION...ROLFSON
AVIATION...SRF
MARINE...JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
303 PM CST WED NOV 16 2011
.DISCUSSION...
VERY COLD UPPER TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE AREA NOW. H5 TEMPS
AROUND -40 THIS MORNING ABR TO GGW. VERY DRY AIR WITH SINGLE
DIGIT DEW POINTS CURRENTLY OVER OUR SOUTHERN CWA. WILL NEED TO
LOWER MIN TEMPS A BIT TONIGHT. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THERE IS A BACK
EDGE TO THE COLD AIR CU/SC OVER EASTERN ND WITH MUCH OF THE CLOUD
DECK OVER OUR AREA MAINLY CUFORM. THE TREND TOWARD CLEARING LOOKS
GOOD THIS EVENING GIVING A GOOD START TO THE COLD OVERNIGHT MINS.
LOOKS LIKE A COLD DAY FOR THURSDAY..BUT UNDER SUNNY SKIES DUE TO
VERY DRY AIR OVER THE AREA. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE SYSTEM FOR
FRIDAY. SOME DECENT MODERATION AHEAD OF THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE
AND FRONT CROSSING THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW RECOVERY TO TEMPS NEAR 50 OVER SOUTHERN MN ON FRIDAY. THE
COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN
STALL JUST TO OUR SOUTH. A TIGHT TEMP GRADIENT WILL SET UP ACROSS
THE AREA ON SATURDAY. THERE HAS BEEN GENERAL CONSISTENCY IN
FOCUSING THE BEST FORCING ACROSS CENTRAL MN INTO THE NORTHERN PART
OF OUR WI AREA. THIS TREND CONTINUING AT LEAST WITH THE GFS AND
ECMWF. THE NAM SEEMS A LITTLE TOO FAR TO THE NORTHWEST. WITH A
SNOW COVER NOW DEVELOPING ACROSS CANADA INTO ND AND PARTS OF N
MN...IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT ENDS UP
LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE COLD LOW LEVEL TEMP STRUCTURE
COULD BE PROBLEMATIC WITH PTYPE..WITH THE OUTSIDE CHANCE OF FZRA
IN A FEW AREAS OF THE SOUTH. WILL NOT TRY TO PIN THAT DOWN AT
THIS POINT...BUT KEEP THE ZONE OF RASN.
HAVE BROUGHT SOME SNOW POTENTIAL A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH BUT THE
NORTH HALF OF THE CWA STILL SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE. THE
SREF PROBS OB THE BEST DENDRITIC ZONE IS IN NORTHERN MN BUT THIS
IS OUT AT THE LAST FEW TIME STEPS OF THE RUN. IT DOES LOOK LIKE AN
FGEN DRIVEN EVENT WITH THE OPEN WAVE...SO THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL
FOR A SHARP CUT OFF TO PRECIP.
AFTER A COLD PERIOD FOLLOWING THE SYSTEM..IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL
BE BACK TO A MAINLY MILD PATTERN WITH THE DEEP MEAN TROUGH OVER
AK. THE LATEST NAEFS IS SHOWING A LARGE AREA OF PROBS OF ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY..EAST OF THE MO
RIVER.
&&
.AVIATION.../18Z TAF ISSUANCE/
MVFR CIGS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE
MOVING ACROSS WC MN...AND CENTRAL MN. MOST OF THE CLDS ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH A DIURNAL TREND WHICH SHOULD ABATE AFT SUNSET.
HOWEVER...THICKER CLD CVR ACROSS SC ND...AND INTO NE SD MAY ALLOW
FOR THE CLDS TO LINGER INTO THE EVENING. THIS IS THE MAIN AVIATION
CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM...WITH THE COMMON DIURNAL TREND OF THE
GUSTY W/NW WNDS THIS AFTN. BASED ON UPSTREAM OBS IN SD/ND AND
ACROSS PORTIONS OF WC/C MN...WILL CONTINUE THE HIGH END MVFR CIGS
FOR AXN...AND POSSIBLY STC IF CONDITIONS WARRANT. MOST OF THE
OTHER MPX TAF SITES WILL REMAIN VFR OR AT LEAST HAVE CIGS ABV 3K.
SOME -SN HAS DEVELOPED IN THE PORTIONS OF SC/SE ND WHERE DEEPER
MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED DENDRITIC ZONE HAS ALLOWED FOR -SN...BUT
COVERAGE WILL REMAIN TOO LOW FOR ANY TYPE OF -SN IN THE AFTN TAF.
WILL MONITOR IF CONDITIONS BECOME MORE SCATTERED/WIDESPREAD AS THE
LATEST RUC IS HINTING ON THIS. WNDS WILL BECOME MORE W/SW
OVERNIGHT...THEN SW/S BY THU MORNING.
MSP...SCT/BKN CLDS ARND 3-3.5K WILL MOVE ACROSS MSP AIRPORT DURING
THE AFTN...BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH VFR CIGS OF 4-5K AT THIS TIME.
WNDS CURRENTLY FROM THE SW...BUT IT SHOULD CHG DURING THE AFTN AS
MIXING DEVELOPS AND ALLOWS FOR SOME GUSTS UP TO 22 KTS FROM THE
WNW. WNDS WILL DECREASE TOWARD SUNSET...THEN BECOME MORE WSW/SW BY
MORNING...BUT REMAIN UNDER 8 KTS.
OUTLOOK FOR SATURDAY STILL LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS
AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS/INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST. TIMING AND TRANSITION FROM RA TO SN WILL REMAIN PROBLEMATIC
/MAINLY SOUTH OF RWF TO MSP AND RNH/...BUT CURRENT TRENDS INDICATE
THAT THE WORSE CONDITIONS WILL BE FROM 18Z/19...TO 06Z/20. OR LATE
SATURDAY AFTN...THRU THE EVENING. ..JLT..
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
JPR/JLT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1126 AM CST WED NOV 16 2011
.DISCUSSION...
A COLD WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW OF AIR WILL COVER THE REGION INTO
THURSDAY. A SHORT WAVE OVER NORTH DAKOTA WILL PROGRESS TO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY TONIGHT. SOME CLOUDINESS OVER CENTRAL
MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI EARLY THIS MORNING WILL PART FOR A TIME
BEFORE ANOTHER SURGE OF LOW CLOUDINESS ARRIVES FOR THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. OUR LOCAL MODEL AND THE RUC PAINT SOME LIGHT
ECHOES ACROSS CENTRAL MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS...SO KEPT THE MENTION OF FLURRIES TO THESE
AREAS. THERE SHOULD BE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE ACROSS SOUTHERN MN
TODAY. THE MIX-DOWN TD TOOL POINTS TO DEW POINT LOWERING TO AROUND
5 DEG C DURING THE AFTERNOON. WE ARE CURRENTLY SEEING SOME SINGLE
DIGIT DEW POINTS NEAR THE SD/NE EARLY THIS MORNING. THE ARW/NMM
WRFS ALSO INDICATE DINGLE DIGIT DEW POINT IN THE SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON. HENCE...BLENDED IN THE MIX DOWN DPS WITH CONSENSUS FOR
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. TRENDED A FEW DEGREES HIGHER ON
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA VERSUS
MET/MAV MOS DUE TO MORE SUNSHINE AND WHAT THE MIX DOWN MAX T WAS
SHOWING.
FLURRIES/CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT OVER THE NORTHERN AND
EASTERN CWA AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN LATE IN THE NIGHT. THE RIDGE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA ON THURSDAY WITH FLOW BECOMING MORE
SOUTHERLY. IT WILL STILL BE A COOL DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 30S.
AS THE RIDGE MOVES EAST THURSDAY NIGHT...A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP
AND MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA. ONLY SOME CLOUDS EXPECTED WITH
THE WARM FRONT. THIS WILL LEAD TO A WARMER FRIDAY WITH HIGHS
REACHING WELL INTO THE 40S IN MOST AREAS WITH SOME 50S IN THE
SOUTH.
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND PRECIPITATION EVENT FOR SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT REMAINS ON TRACK. THE GEM AND ECMWF ARE IN STEP
WITH THIS SYSTEM WHILE THE GFS LAGS BY ABOUT 6 HOURS. THE GFS
ENSEMBLE IS EVEN SLOWER BY ABOUT ANOTHER 6 HOURS. STILL EXPECT A
LOW TO TRACK FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA SATURDAY MORNING TO EASTERN WI
BY SATURDAY NIGHT. ALL SOLUTIONS INDICATE THE LOW SLOWLY FILLING
DURING THIS PERIOD WHICH IS NOTE GOOD FOR A HEAVY SNOW EVENT. WE
ALSO CONTINUE TO SEE AN OPEN WAVE ALOFT WHICH SPEAKS FOR THE
QUICKNESS WITH THIS SYSTEM. LOOKING AT SOME OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
FEATURES SHOWS THE H5 HEIGHT FALL TRACK FROM YELLOW MEDICINE COUNTY
TO BURNETT COUNTY. THE -15 DEG C OMEGA IS ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THIS
TRACK WITH THE DEPTH OF THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE BEING ABOUT
1100M. THE WARM POCKET AT H2 ALSO TRACKS ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED
AXIS WITH 10 DEG OF WARMING NOTED.
THE 295K THETA SURFACE PLACES 700 MB ABOUT IN THIS GENERAL AREA AS
WELL WITH PLENTY OF SATURATION AND ADIABATIC OMEGA NOTED TO THE
NORTH AND WEST. THE MIX RATIO CONTINUES TO RUN BETWEEN 2 AND 3
G/KG AND IS ALIGNED WITH THE -FN VECTOR DIVERGENCE. THIS ALL POINTS
TO A BAND OF 4 TO LOCALLY 6 INCHES FROM WEST CENTRAL MN ON
NORTHEAST TO DULUTH AND HAYWARD. THE CARIBOU SNOW TOOL USING THE GFS
AGREES PRETTY WELL WITH THIS SCENARIO. ALSO INTERESTING IS THE
16/00Z CIPS DATA...BASED ON THE TOP 15 ANALOGS...WHICH SHOWS MEAN
SNOWFALL OF 4 TO 6 FROM WEST CENTRAL MN THROUGH THE ARROWHEAD AND
FAR NORTHERN AREAS OF WI WITH 2 TO 3 INCHES FROM SOUTHWEST MN
THROUGH THE METRO AND ACROSS MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL WI.
IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...A RATHER SUBSTANTIAL HIGH
WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH DRY
WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES OCCURRING.
&&
.AVIATION.../18Z TAF ISSUANCE/
MVFR CIGS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE
MOVING ACROSS WC MN...AND CENTRAL MN. MOST OF THE CLDS ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH A DIURNAL TREND WHICH SHOULD ABATE AFT SUNSET.
HOWEVER...THICKER CLD CVR ACROSS SC ND...AND INTO NE SD MAY ALLOW
FOR THE CLDS TO LINGER INTO THE EVENING. THIS IS THE MAIN AVIATION
CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM...WITH THE COMMON DIURNAL TREND OF THE
GUSTY W/NW WNDS THIS AFTN. BASED ON UPSTREAM OBS IN SD/ND AND
ACROSS PORTIONS OF WC/C MN...WILL CONTINUE THE HIGH END MVFR CIGS
FOR AXN...AND POSSIBLY STC IF CONDITIONS WARRANT. MOST OF THE
OTHER MPX TAF SITES WILL REMAIN VFR OR AT LEAST HAVE CIGS ABV 3K.
SOME -SN HAS DEVELOPED IN THE PORTIONS OF SC/SE ND WHERE DEEPER
MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED DENDRITIC ZONE HAS ALLOWED FOR -SN...BUT
COVERAGE WILL REMAIN TOO LOW FOR ANY TYPE OF -SN IN THE AFTN TAF.
WILL MONITOR IF CONDITIONS BECOME MORE SCATTERED/WIDESPREAD AS THE
LATEST RUC IS HINTING ON THIS. WNDS WILL BECOME MORE W/SW
OVERNIGHT...THEN SW/S BY THU MORNING.
MSP...SCT/BKN CLDS ARND 3-3.5K WILL MOVE ACROSS MSP AIRPORT DURING
THE AFTN...BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH VFR CIGS OF 4-5K AT THIS TIME.
WNDS CURRENTLY FROM THE SW...BUT IT SHOULD CHG DURING THE AFTN AS
MIXING DEVELOPS AND ALLOWS FOR SOME GUSTS UP TO 22 KTS FROM THE
WNW. WNDS WILL DECREASE TOWARD SUNSET...THEN BECOME MORE WSW/SW BY
MORNING...BUT REMAIN UNDER 8 KTS.
OUTLOOK FOR SATURDAY STILL LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS
AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS/INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST. TIMING AND TRANSITION FROM RA TO SN WILL REMAIN PROBLEMATIC
/MAINLY SOUTH OF RWF TO MSP AND RNH/...BUT CURRENT TRENDS INDICATE
THAT THE WORSE CONDITIONS WILL BE FROM 18Z/19...TO 06Z/20. OR LATE
SATURDAY AFTN...THRU THE EVENING. ..JLT..
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
RAH/JLT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
318 PM EST WED NOV 16 2011
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL SLIDE EASTWARD BRINGING
SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...INCLUDING SEVERE
WEATHER...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER
AIR WILL FOLLOW LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
OVERHEAD WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING DURING THE WEEKEND. A SECOND
FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...TROPICAL WARMTH AND HUMIDITY WILL COME TO A
CRASHING HALT LATE TONIGHT AS A STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVES FROM THE
WEST. THE TRANSITION FROM A TROPICAL TO AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL NOT
BE AN EASY ONE...AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS TONIGHT.
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE IMPRESSIVE FOR A COOL-SEASON EVENT.
ALTHOUGH SURFACE CAPE FALLS AWAY TO A FEW HUNDRED J/KG AFTER DARK
WITH 75-100 J/KG OF INHIBITION TO OVERCOME...STARTING TO LIFT A
PARCEL FROM AROUND 925 MB YIELDS 600-1500 J/KG OF UNINHIBITED CAPE
AIDED BY REASONABLY STEEP MID AND UPPER LEVEL LAPSE RATES. UNLIKE
OUR TYPICAL WINTERTIME "SEVERE SHOWER" SCENARIOS THERE COULD
ACTUALLY BE DEEP (40+ KFT) CONVECTION TONIGHT. WIND SHEAR PARAMETERS
ARE ALSO IMPRESSIVE: 50-60 KT OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR...200-300 M^2/S^2
0-3 KM HELICITY...AND 50 KT WIND SPEEDS WITHIN 2500 FEET OF THE
GROUND ALL POINT TOWARD ORGANIZED STORMS...PERHAPS EVEN
SUPERCELLS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE AND TORNADOES.
SYNOPTICALLY A 300 MB JET STREAK WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT. THIS WILL PLACE THE EASTERN CAROLINAS
WITHIN THE RIGHT-ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET STREAK AIDING IN
DEEP-LAYER LIFT. TIMING-WISE...THE LAST THREE RUNS (15-16-17Z) OF
THE HRRR RAPID UPDATE MODEL ALL PLACE THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SQUALL
LINE IN WESTERN DARLINGTON COUNTY AT 7 PM...MOVING INTO FLORENCE...
DILLON AND LUMBERTON BY 8 PM...AND TO THE COAST BETWEEN 10 PM AND
MIDNIGHT. OUR HIGHEST POPS (80-90%) EXTEND FROM FLORENCE...MARION
AND MYRTLE BEACH NORTHWARD THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.
LOWER POPS (50-60%) ARE FORECAST SOUTH INTO THE GEORGETOWN AREA
WHERE THIS FIRST BATCH OF CONVECTION MAY BE TOO FAR NORTH FOR
IMPACTS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP
BEHIND THIS FIRST BATCH...ASSOCIATED WITH SUBTLE UPPER DISTURBANCES
WORKING ON RESIDUAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY. THIS SECOND BATCH OF
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY COULD CONTINUE UP UNTIL THE TIME OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AROUND DAYBREAK THURSDAY.
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE TRICKY WITH THE SURFACE COLD FRONT
LIKELY ARRIVING AROUND 12Z. WE ARE FORECASTING MID 60S ON THE COAST
AND 59-63 INLAND...HOWEVER THERE IS SIGNIFICANT BUST POTENTIAL IN
EITHER DIRECTION IF THE FRONT IS ONLY A COUPLE HOURS FASTER OR SLOWER
THAN IS CURRENTLY FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...CONCERN DURING THE PERIOD REVOLVES AROUND
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION EARLY
THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY A DRASTIC DROP IN TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL
MAKE IT FEEL ONCE AGAIN LIKE EARLY WINTER.
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE JUST INSIDE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CWA
THURSDAY MORNING AND RAPIDLY MOVING EAST. THE UNCERTAINTY WITH
STRENGTH OF CONVECTION REVOLVES AROUND THE FACT THAT FROPA IS
OCCURRING AT A NON-IDEAL TIME WITH RESPECT TO INSTABILITY.
HOWEVER...PARAMETERS DO SUGGEST THAT CONVECTION WILL BE ONGOING AT
THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES.
RIDGE OF LOW LEVEL THETA-E AIR REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING ALONG WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND PWATS NEAR 1.5
INCHES. ADDITIONALLY...SOME PVA NEAR A VORT LOBE TRAILING THROUGH
THE EASTERN CAROLINAS...LOCALLY ENHANCED DIFFLUENCE IN THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF AN EXITING UPPER JET...AND THE COLD FRONT ITSELF
WILL HELP FORCE SOME LIFT AND KEEP CONVECTION GOING THROUGH LATE
MORNING. 12 HOUR SREF PRECIP PROBS DO NOT DROP BELOW 50 PERCENT
UNTIL AFTER 03Z FRIDAY...SO ALTHOUGH THE SEVERE THREAT AFTER SUNRISE
THURSDAY APPEARS LIMITED WILL KEEP TSTM MENTION THROUGH LATE MORNING
ALONG THE COAST...WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE UNTIL EARLY AFTN.
FROPA OCCURS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA BY THE AFTN BRINGING AN END TO
PRECIP THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM. DRYING WILL OCCUR
BEHIND FRONT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION...BUT POST
FRONTAL CLOUD COVER/STRATUS WILL EXIST THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY
BEFORE CLEARING ON FRIDAY.
THE HIGHEST TEMPS OF THE PERIOD WILL OCCUR THURSDAY MORNING ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...DROPPING RAPIDLY IN THE AFTN AS STRONG CAA
DEVELOPS. LARGE BUST POTENTIAL ON MAX TEMPS THURSDAY DEPENDING ON
EXACT TIMING OF FROPA...BUT EXPECT TEMPS AROUND 60 INLAND...MID 60S
AT THE COAST AT DAYBREAK THURSDAY...THEN FALLING THROUGH THE DAY.
MEX/MAV IN AGREEMENT WITH MAX TEMPS FRIDAY IN THE MID 50S...BUT
GUIDANCE HAS A TENDENCY TO OVER FORECAST HIGHS THE DAY AFTER A STRONG
FROPA. WILL TREND MAXES DOWN TO THE LOW/MID 50S...BUT NOTE THIS MAY
STILL BE TOO WARM. MINS EACH NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 30S AT THE
COAST...AROUND 30 IN THE COLDER SPOTS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL BECOME SUPPRESSED LATE
IN THE PERIOD AS 5H FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL. MUCH OF THE PERIOD WILL
BE DOMINATED BY ELONGATED SURFACE HIGH WITH A WEAK COASTAL TROF
DEVELOPING SAT INTO SUN. COASTAL TROF LOOKS PRETTY WEAK SO DO NOT
THINK PRECIP WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE. BACKDOOR COLD FRONT STALLED NORTH
OF THE AREA MON WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TUE. NOT MUCH
FORCING ALONG THE FRONT AS IT HEADS SOUTH. FROPA WILL BE MARKED BY
AIR MASS CHANGE BUT VERY LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT
LATE IN THE PERIOD AS MID LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS EAST WILL PROVIDE THE
BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP DURING THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE EVENT PLAN TO CARRY SILENT POP FOR
NOW. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT NEAR CLIMO SAT BUT END UP ABOVE
CLIMO SAT NIGHT AND FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. HIGHS WILL RUN 5 TO
8 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO WITH LOWS CLOSER TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 17Z...A LARGE PORTION OF THE CWA HAS SCATTERED OUT...HOWEVER
EXPECT AN MVFR CEILING TO RE-EMERGE AS CU SPREADS OUT INTO A CEILING
DUE TO A PERSISTENT SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS EVENING...EXPECT IFR
CEILINGS TO COME BACK...AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GETS TRAPPED.
CONVECTION AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL AFFECT THE WESTERN
TERMINALS BEFORE MIDNIGHT...WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WITH
MODERATE OMEGA REACHING THE COAST BY 07-08Z. LOOK FOR INTERMITTENT
IFR VISIBILITIES IN THE HEAVY SHOWERS WITH SOME INCREASE IN WINDS.
THE FIRST SET OF CONVECTION WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BEFORE
DAYBREAK...MEANWHILE MORE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE DAY...AGAIN WITH INTERMITTENT HEAVY
RAIN WITH MODERATE FRONTAL LIFT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND
GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT. MODELS INDICATE LOW CEILINGS WILL REMAIN
BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISE TO SEE VFR CONDITIONS
BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH LOWERED
CONFIDENCE FOR POTENTIAL IFR FOG/STRATUS SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS CHILLY
NEARSHORE OCEAN WATERS HAS RESULTED IN AREAS OF DENSE SEA FOG TODAY.
THIS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH VISIBILITIES LESS
THAN ONE MILE AT TIMES. THE WORST VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE WATERS WITHIN 5-8 MILES OF SHORE WHERE WATER TEMPERATURES AND
AIR TEMPERATURES ARE COOLEST.
OTHERWISE...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL RAMP UP OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING EAST TOWARD THE CAROLINAS. LATEST HIGH-
RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST THE FIRST BATCH OF SHOWERS AND STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS COULD REACH THE COASTLINE AROUND 10 PM THIS EVENING...
WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT UP UNTIL THE
ACTUAL SURFACE COLD FRONT ARRIVES AFTER DAYBREAK THURSDAY MORNING.
SEAS SHOULD GRADUALLY BUILD TONIGHT WITH THE STRONGER SOUTHWEST
WINDS ARRIVING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...REACHING AS HIGH AS 6-8 FT NEAR
CAPE FEAR LATE TONIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD REMAIN OUT BEYOND
20 MILES FROM SHORE WHERE WARMER AIR AND WATER TEMPERATURES WILL
SUPPORT DEEPER MIXING...BRINGING THESE WINDS DOWN TO THE OCEAN
SURFACE.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...PERIOD BEGINS WITH SOLID SCA CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AS PINCHED GRADIENT EXISTS AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. WINDS THURSDAY WILL QUICKLY VEER FROM SW IN THE MORNING TO
NORTHERLY DURING THE AFTN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. SPEEDS WILL
INCREASE AS WELL...BECOMING SUSTAINED AT NEARLY 25 KTS UNTIL
THURSDAY NIGHT...HELPING TO GENERATE SEAS OF 5-7 FT. CHALLENGE THEN
BECOMES DETERMINING EXACTLY WHEN CONDITIONS WILL DROP BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS. ALTHOUGH GRADIENT WILL REMAIN PINCHED AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES TOWARDS THE AREA...EXPECT IT WILL SLACKEN ENOUGH TO DROP
WINDS TO 15-20 KTS AND SEAS TO 4-5 FT BY FRIDAY MORNING...SO HAVE
LEFT CURRENT SCA AS-IS. WINDS VEER TO THE NE FRIDAY NIGHT AND EASE
FURTHER...REDUCING SEAS TO 2-4 FT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BE QUICK TO VEER TO
SOUTHEASTERLY AS WEAK COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS. REMAINS OF THE
TROUGH PUSH INLAND SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AND HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS.
WEAK GRADIENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD
WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND 10 KT. COLD FRONT MAY DROP IN
FROM THE NORTH AT THE END OF THE PERIOD...THOUGH TIMING IS STILL IN
QUESTION. SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 4 FT SAT DROPPING TO 2 TO 3 FT SUN
AND MON.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST THURSDAY NIGHT FOR
AMZ250-252-254-256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TRA/JDW
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...DL
MARINE...ALL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1149 AM EST WED NOV 16 2011
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL SLIDE EASTWARD BRINGING
SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...INCLUDING SEVERE
WEATHER...TONIGHT INTO THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. MUCH COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE OVERHEAD WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING DURING THE WEEKEND.
ANOTHER FRONT WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM WEDNESDAY...WARM MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES OVER
THE CAROLINAS TODAY IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT NOW LOCATED IN
EASTERN TENNESSEE...NORTHERN ALABAMA...AND MISSISSIPPI. TODAY SHOULD
BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THIS ENTIRE STRING OF MILD WEATHER DATING BACK
TO SUNDAY...WITH THIS AFTERNOON`S HIGHS REACHING THE LOWER 80S
INLAND AWAY FROM MARINE INFLUENCES. 850 MB TEMPS IN THE +15C TO
+16C RANGE WOULD BE MORE AT HOME IN JUNE THAN IN NOVEMBER...AND WILL
SUPPORT THESE VERY MILD READINGS. RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY ARE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S AND SHOULD REMAIN UNTOUCHED.
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S PLUS A LONG WIND FETCH ACROSS THE COLD
NEARSHORE COASTAL WATERS IS PRODUCING AREAS OF FOG AND VERY LOW
STRATUS CLOUDS OVER THE OCEAN AND SOME OF THE BEACHES. VISIBILITIES
IN THE 0.25 TO 1 MILE RANGE ARE COMMON ON THE BEACHES AND OUT OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS. AS LONG AS THE SUN IS SHINING TODAY THIS FOG
SHOULD HAVE LITTLE SUCCESS MAKING IT MORE THAN 1 MILE INLAND OR
SO...BUT ANY REMAINING FOG THIS EVENING COULD PUSH FARTHER INLAND.
FIRST WE HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS TODAY WITH ALL SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING WE WILL SEE LITTLE IF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER OUR
FORECAST AREA BEFORE DARK. WE DID LEAVE A SMALL 20 POP WEST OF I-95
LATE THIS AFTERNOON WHERE ONE OF THE PREVIOUS THREE HRRR RUNS SHOWS
SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE. THERE IS INSTABILITY (CAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG)
FORECAST TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON BUT TRIGGERS FOR CONVECTION ARE
LARGELY ABSENT.
THE BIG STORY IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER AHEAD OF THE FRONT
TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH SURFACE-BASED CAPE/INSTABILITY IS NOT IMPRESSIVE
AFTER SUNSET THERE IS RATHER LARGE ELEVATED CAPE WHEN PARCELS AT
950/925 MB ARE CONSIDERED. RATHER STEEP LAPSE RATES THROUGH ALL THE
MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF DEEP
CONVECTION. SYNOPTIC FACTORS SUPPORTIVE OF LIFT INCLUDE A
FAVORABLY-POSITIONED JET STREAK MOVING THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION TONIGHT PLACING THE CAROLINAS SQUARELY IN THE FAVORED
RIGHT-ENTRANCE REGION...STRONG AND SLIGHTLY BACKED LOW LEVEL WINDS
RELATIVE TO THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW PRODUCING 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 50-70 KT...AND SEVERAL 500 MB VORTICITY
CENTERS PASSING OVER OR JUST NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THE LATEST
SPC CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK INCREASED SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITIES FOR
WIND AND TORNADOES...AND WE WOULD NOT BE AT ALL SURPRISED TO SEE
TORNADO WATCHES FOR PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...FORECAST MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE
PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT EVER SO SLIGHTLY AND HAVE THEREFORE
EXTENDED POPS ACROSS THE BOARD INTO THE LATE MORNING
HOURS...ESPECIALLY COASTAL AREAS. OTHERWISE INTERESTING
TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY HIGHS AS THE MAV NUMBERS SHOW NO
WARMING IN WILMINGTON WITH LITTLE ELSEWHERE. WITH THE DOWNSLOPE
FLOW AND COLD AIR ADVECTION NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE...DID ADD A DEGREE
OR TWO TO THE MAV NUMBERS. FOR FRIDAY MORNING WINDS DECOUPLE
INLAND WHILE REMAINING UP SLIGHTLY ALONG THE COAST AND ADJUSTED
MOS NUMBERS ACCORDINGLY. COOL DAY FRIDAY WITH MOST AREAS REMAINING
BELOW 60.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST IS RATHER UNEVENTFUL AS
THE PATTERN QUICKLY EVOLVES FROM ZONAL TO RIDGING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST...SIMILAR TO THE PATTERN WE HAVE EXPERIENCED THE PAST
FEW DAYS. HPC IS FAVORING A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF AND UKMET.
REALLY THE ONLY FORECAST CHALLENGES INVOLVE LIGHT COASTAL TROUGH
QPF SATURDAY AND A BACKDOOR FRONT TUESDAY. AS FOR THE
FORMER...MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST AS THE MODELS ARE USUALLY
OVERDONE WITH THE QPF AND IN REALITY IT IS GENERALLY A STRATUS
LAYER. REGARDING THE FRONT...THE LATEST GFS IS MORE BULLISH IN
PUSHING THE FRONT SOUTH WITH THE EFFECTS ONLY BEING AN AIRMASS
CHANGE. THE 0000 UTC ECMWF HAS BACKED OFF A FURTHER SOUTH
SOLUTION. OTHERWISE...AS WE JUST EXPERIENCED...ABOVE NORMAL TO
DOWN RIGHT BALMY CONDITIONS FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 17Z...A LARGE PORTION OF THE CWA HAS SCATTERED OUT...HOWEVER
EXPECT AN MVFR CEILING TO RE-EMERGE AS CU SPREADS OUT INTO A CEILING
DUE TO A PERSISTENT SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS EVENING...EXPECT IFR
CEILINGS TO COME BACK...AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GETS TRAPPED.
CONVECTION AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL AFFECT THE WESTERN
TERMINALS BEFORE MIDNIGHT...WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WITH
MODERATE OMEGA REACHING THE COAST BY 07-08Z. LOOK FOR INTERMITTENT
IFR VISIBILITIES IN THE HEAVY SHOWERS WITH SOME INCREASE IN WINDS.
THE FIRST SET OF CONVECTION WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BEFORE
DAYBREAK...MEANWHILE MORE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE DAY...AGAIN WITH INTERMITTENT HEAVY
RAIN WITH MODERATE FRONTAL LIFT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND
GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT. MODELS INDICATE LOW CEILINGS WILL REMAIN
BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISE TO SEE VFR CONDITIONS
BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH LOWERED
CONFIDENCE FOR POTENTIAL IFR FOG/STRATUS SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM WEDNESDAY...SATELLITE IMAGERY...SURF CAMS...AND
OBSERVATIONS FROM NORTH MYRTLE BEACH AND SOUTHPORT CONTINUE TO
INDICATE EXPANSIVE AREAS OF DENSE SEA FOG THIS MORNING. WE WILL
LIKELY HAVE TO EXTEND THE TIME OF THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY LATER THIS
MORNING AS THE MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING. THERE IS QUITE A THERMAL
GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY REPORTING
AN AIR TEMP OF 75...WHILE 66-67 DEGREE TEMPS ARE BEING REPORTED ON
THE BEACHES NEAR CAPE FEAR.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 15 KT WILL INCREASE FURTHER TONIGHT AS
THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THE INCOMING STRONG COLD FRONT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO INCREASE IN COVERAGE TONIGHT.
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THE ROUGHER CONDITIONS
NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE WHEN TO
CONCLUDE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LATE THURSDAY EVENING. A PERIOD
OF STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY EVENING. FOR NOW WITH THE TIMING STILL OUT FOUR
PERIODS...WILL NOT TWEAK BUT ISSUE THE DISCLAIMER THE HEADLINE MAY
HAVE TO BE EXTENDED A FEW HOURS. WINDS VEER TO NORTHEASTERLY
FRIDAY AND DIMINISH SOMEWHAT TO A MANAGEABLE RANGE OF 15-20 KNOTS
MAINLY TO THE LOWER END. HIGH SEAS EARLY GET CONFINED TO THE OUTER
WATERS WITH THE WIND SHIFT AND REMAIN THERE FOR THE MOST PART.
SOME FIVE TO SIX FOOTERS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS GIVING
THE FRIDAY.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...NORTHEAST FLOW INITIALLY WILL QUICKLY VEER
TO SOUTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AND LEAVES THE WIND FIELD TO
BE FORCED BY LOCAL EFFECTS IE...THE SEABREEZE. THIS WILL OCCUR
LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS WINDS DROP TO BELOW 10 KNOTS. SEAS
FOLLOW A SIMILAR TREND WITH 2-4 FEET INITIALLY DROPPING TO 2-3 FEET.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM TONIGHT FOR AMZ250-252
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST TODAY FOR AMZ254-256.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT EST THURSDAY
NIGHT FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...43
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1135 AM EST WED NOV 16 2011
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL SLIDE EASTWARD BRINGING
SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...INCLUDING SEVERE
WEATHER...TONIGHT INTO THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. MUCH COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE OVERHEAD WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING DURING THE WEEKEND.
ANOTHER FRONT WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM WEDNESDAY...WARM MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES OVER
THE CAROLINAS TODAY IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT NOW LOCATED IN
EASTERN TENNESSEE...NORTHERN ALABAMA...AND MISSISSIPPI. TODAY SHOULD
BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THIS ENTIRE STRING OF MILD WEATHER DATING BACK
TO SUNDAY...WITH THIS AFTERNOON`S HIGHS REACHING THE LOWER 80S
INLAND AWAY FROM MARINE INFLUENCES. 850 MB TEMPS IN THE +15C TO
+16C RANGE WOULD BE MORE AT HOME IN JUNE THAN IN NOVEMBER...AND WILL
SUPPORT THESE VERY MILD READINGS. RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY ARE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S ARE SHOULD REMAIN UNTOUCHED.
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S PLUS A LONG WIND FETCH ACROSS THE COLD
NEARSHORE COASTAL WATERS IS PRODUCING AREAS OF FOG AND VERY LOW
STRATUS CLOUDS OVER THE OCEAN AND SOME OF THE BEACHES. VISIBILITIES
IN THE 0.25 TO 1 MILE RANGE ARE COMMON ON THE BEACHES AND OUT OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS. AS LONG AS THE SUN IS SHINING TODAY THIS FOG
SHOULD HAVE LITTLE SUCCESS MAKING IT MORE THAN 1 MILE INLAND OR
SO...BUT ANY REMAINING FOG THIS EVENING COULD PUSH FARTHER INLAND.
FIRST WE HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS TODAY WITH ALL SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING WE WILL SEE LITTLE IF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER OUR
FORECAST AREA BEFORE DARK. WE DID LEAVE A SMALL 20 POP WEST OF I-95
LATE THIS AFTERNOON WHERE ONE OF THE PREVIOUS THREE HRRR RUNS SHOWS
SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE. THERE IS INSTABILITY (CAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG)
FORECAST TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON BUT TRIGGERS FOR CONVECTION ARE
LARGELY ABSENT.
THE BIG STORY IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER AHEAD OF THE FRONT
TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH SURFACE-BASED CAPE/INSTABILITY IS NOT IMPRESSIVE
AFTER SUNSET THERE IS RATHER LARGE ELEVATED CAPE WHEN PARCELS AT
950/925 MB ARE CONSIDERED. RATHER STEEP LAPSE RATES THROUGH ALL THE
MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF DEEP
CONVECTION. SYNOPTIC FACTORS SUPPORTIVE OF LIFT INCLUDE A
FAVORABLY-POSITIONED JET STREAK MOVING THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION TONIGHT PLACING THE CAROLINAS SQUARELY IN THE FAVORED
RIGHT-ENTRANCE REGION...STRONG AND SLIGHTLY BACKED LOW LEVEL WINDS
RELATIVE TO THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW PRODUCING 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 50-70 KT...AND SEVERAL 500 MB VORTICITY
CENTERS PASSING OVER OR JUST NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THE LATEST
SPC CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK INCREASED SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITIES FOR
WIND AND TORNADOES...AND WE WOULD NOT BE AT ALL SURPRISED TO SEE
TORNADO WATCHES FOR PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...FORECAST MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE
PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT EVER SO SLIGHTLY AND HAVE THEREFORE
EXTENDED POPS ACROSS THE BOARD INTO THE LATE MORNING
HOURS...ESPECIALLY COASTAL AREAS. OTHERWISE INTERESTING
TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY HIGHS AS THE MAV NUMBERS SHOW NO
WARMING IN WILMINGTON WITH LITTLE ELSEWHERE. WITH THE DOWNSLOPE
FLOW AND COLD AIR ADVECTION NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE...DID ADD A DEGREE
OR TWO TO THE MAV NUMBERS. FOR FRIDAY MORNING WINDS DECOUPLE
INLAND WHILE REMAINING UP SLIGHTLY ALONG THE COAST AND ADJUSTED
MOS NUMBERS ACCORDINGLY. COOL DAY FRIDAY WITH MOST AREAS REMAINING
BELOW 60.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST IS RATHER UNEVENTFUL AS
THE PATTERN QUICKLY EVOLVES FROM ZONAL TO RIDGING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST...SIMILAR TO THE PATTERN WE HAVE EXPERIENCED THE PAST
FEW DAYS. HPC IS FAVORING A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF AND UKMET.
REALLY THE ONLY FORECAST CHALLENGES INVOLVE LIGHT COASTAL TROUGH
QPF SATURDAY AND A BACKDOOR FRONT TUESDAY. AS FOR THE
FORMER...MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST AS THE MODELS ARE USUALLY
OVERDONE WITH THE QPF AND IN REALITY IT IS GENERALLY A STRATUS
LAYER. REGARDING THE FRONT...THE LATEST GFS IS MORE BULLISH IN
PUSHING THE FRONT SOUTH WITH THE EFFECTS ONLY BEING AN AIRMASS
CHANGE. THE 0000 UTC ECMWF HAS BACKED OFF A FURTHER SOUTH
SOLUTION. OTHERWISE...AS WE JUST EXPERIENCED...ABOVE NORMAL TO
DOWN RIGHT BALMY CONDITIONS FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 17Z...A LARGE PORTION OF THE CWA HAS SCATTERED OUT...HOWEVER
EXPECT AN MVFR CEILING TO RE-EMERGE AS CU SPREADS OUT INTO A CEILING
DUE TO A PERSISTENT SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS EVENING...EXPECT IFR
CEILINGS TO COME BACK...AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GETS TRAPPED.
CONVECTION AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL AFFECT THE WESTERN
TERMINALS BEFORE MIDNIGHT...WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WITH
MODERATE OMEGA REACHING THE COAST BY 07-08Z. LOOK FOR INTERMITTENT
IFR VISIBILITIES IN THE HEAVY SHOWERS WITH SOME INCREASE IN WINDS.
THE FIRST SET OF CONVECTION WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BEFORE DAYBREAK...MEANWHILE
MORE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CWA
DURING THE DAY...AGAIN WITH INTERMITTENT HEAVY RAIN WITH MODERATE
FRONTAL LIFT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND GUSTY BEHIND THE
FRONT. MODELS INDICATE LOW CEILINGS WILL REMAIN BEHIND THE
FRONT...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISE TO SEE VFR CONDITIONS BY THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH LOWERED
CONFIDENCE FOR POTENTIAL IFR FOG/STRATUS SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM WEDNESDAY...SATELLITE IMAGERY...SURF CAMS...AND
OBSERVATIONS FROM NORTH MYRTLE BEACH AND SOUTHPORT CONTINUE TO
INDICATE EXPANSIVE AREAS OF DENSE SEA FOG THIS MORNING. WE WILL
LIKELY HAVE TO EXTEND THE TIME OF THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY LATER THIS
MORNING AS THE MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING. THERE IS QUITE A THERMAL
GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY REPORTING
AN AIR TEMP OF 75...WHILE 66-67 DEGREE TEMPS ARE BEING REPORTED ON
THE BEACHES NEAR CAPE FEAR.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 15 KT WILL INCREASE FURTHER TONIGHT AS
THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THE INCOMING STRONG COLD FRONT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO INCREASE IN COVERAGE TONIGHT.
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THE ROUGHER CONDITIONS
NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE WHEN TO
CONCLUDE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LATE THURSDAY EVENING. A PERIOD
OF STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY EVENING. FOR NOW WITH THE TIMING STILL OUT FOUR
PERIODS...WILL NOT TWEAK BUT ISSUE THE DISCLAIMER THE HEADLINE MAY
HAVE TO BE EXTENDED A FEW HOURS. WINDS VEER TO NORTHEASTERLY
FRIDAY AND DIMINISH SOMEWHAT TO A MANAGEABLE RANGE OF 15-20 KNOTS
MAINLY TO THE LOWER END. HIGH SEAS EARLY GET CONFINED TO THE OUTER
WATERS WITH THE WIND SHIFT AND REMAIN THERE FOR THE MOST PART.
SOME FIVE TO SIX FOOTERS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS GIVING
THE FRIDAY.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...NORTHEAST FLOW INITIALLY WILL QUICKLY VEER
TO SOUTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AND LEAVES THE WIND FIELD TO
BE FORCED BY LOCAL EFFECTS IE...THE SEABREEZE. THIS WILL OCCUR
LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS WINDS DROP TO BELOW 10 KNOTS. SEAS
FOLLOW A SIMILAR TREND WITH 2-4 FEET INITIALLY DROPPING TO 2-3 FEET.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR AMZ250-252-
254-256.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT EST THURSDAY
NIGHT FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...43
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1126 AM EST WED NOV 16 2011
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL SLIDE EASTWARD BRINGING
SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...INCLUDING SEVERE
WEATHER...TONIGHT INTO THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. MUCH COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE OVERHEAD WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING DURING THE WEEKEND.
ANOTHER FRONT WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM WEDNESDAY...WARM MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES OVER
THE CAROLINAS TODAY IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT NOW LOCATED IN
EASTERN TENNESSEE...NORTHERN ALABAMA...AND MISSISSIPPI. TODAY SHOULD
BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THIS ENTIRE STRING OF MILD WEATHER DATING BACK
TO SUNDAY...WITH THIS AFTERNOON`S HIGHS REACHING THE LOWER 80S
INLAND AWAY FROM MARINE INFLUENCES. 850 MB TEMPS IN THE +15C TO
+16C RANGE WOULD BE MORE AT HOME IN JUNE THAN IN NOVEMBER...AND WILL
SUPPORT THESE VERY MILD READINGS. RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY ARE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S AND SHOULD REMAIN UNTOUCHED.
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S PLUS A LONG WIND FETCH ACROSS THE COLD
NEARSHORE COASTAL WATERS IS PRODUCING AREAS OF FOG AND VERY LOW
STRATUS CLOUDS OVER THE OCEAN AND SOME OF THE BEACHES. VISIBILITIES
IN THE 0.25 TO 1 MILE RANGE ARE COMMON ON THE BEACHES AND OUT OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS. AS LONG AS THE SUN IS SHINING TODAY THIS FOG
SHOULD HAVE LITTLE SUCCESS MAKING IT MORE THAN 1 MILE INLAND OR
SO...BUT ANY REMAINING FOG THIS EVENING COULD PUSH FARTHER INLAND.
FIRST WE HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS TODAY WITH ALL SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING WE WILL SEE LITTLE IF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER OUR
FORECAST AREA BEFORE DARK. WE DID LEAVE A SMALL 20 POP WEST OF I-95
LATE THIS AFTERNOON WHERE ONE OF THE PREVIOUS THREE HRRR RUNS SHOWS
SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE. THERE IS INSTABILITY (CAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG)
FORECAST TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON BUT TRIGGERS FOR CONVECTION ARE
LARGELY ABSENT.
THE BIG STORY IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER AHEAD OF THE FRONT
TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH SURFACE-BASED CAPE/INSTABILITY IS NOT IMPRESSIVE
AFTER SUNSET THERE IS RATHER LARGE ELEVATED CAPE WHEN PARCELS AT
950/925 MB ARE CONSIDERED. RATHER STEEP LAPSE RATES THROUGH ALL THE
MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF DEEP
CONVECTION. SYNOPTIC FACTORS SUPPORTIVE OF LIFT INCLUDE A
FAVORABLY-POSITIONED JET STREAK MOVING THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION TONIGHT PLACING THE CAROLINAS SQUARELY IN THE FAVORED
RIGHT-ENTRANCE REGION...STRONG AND SLIGHTLY BACKED LOW LEVEL WINDS
RELATIVE TO THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW PRODUCING 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 50-70 KT...AND SEVERAL 500 MB VORTICITY
CENTERS PASSING OVER OR JUST NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THE LATEST
SPC CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK INCREASED SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITIES FOR
WIND AND TORNADOES...AND WE WOULD NOT BE AT ALL SURPRISED TO SEE
TORNADO WATCHES FOR PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...FORECAST MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE
PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT EVER SO SLIGHTLY AND HAVE THEREFORE
EXTENDED POPS ACROSS THE BOARD INTO THE LATE MORNING
HOURS...ESPECIALLY COASTAL AREAS. OTHERWISE INTERESTING
TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY HIGHS AS THE MAV NUMBERS SHOW NO
WARMING IN WILMINGTON WITH LITTLE ELSEWHERE. WITH THE DOWNSLOPE
FLOW AND COLD AIR ADVECTION NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE...DID ADD A DEGREE
OR TWO TO THE MAV NUMBERS. FOR FRIDAY MORNING WINDS DECOUPLE
INLAND WHILE REMAINING UP SLIGHTLY ALONG THE COAST AND ADJUSTED
MOS NUMBERS ACCORDINGLY. COOL DAY FRIDAY WITH MOST AREAS REMAINING
BELOW 60.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST IS RATHER UNEVENTFUL AS
THE PATTERN QUICKLY EVOLVES FROM ZONAL TO RIDGING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST...SIMILAR TO THE PATTERN WE HAVE EXPERIENCED THE PAST
FEW DAYS. HPC IS FAVORING A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF AND UKMET.
REALLY THE ONLY FORECAST CHALLENGES INVOLVE LIGHT COASTAL TROUGH
QPF SATURDAY AND A BACKDOOR FRONT TUESDAY. AS FOR THE
FORMER...MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST AS THE MODELS ARE USUALLY
OVERDONE WITH THE QPF AND IN REALITY IT IS GENERALLY A STRATUS
LAYER. REGARDING THE FRONT...THE LATEST GFS IS MORE BULLISH IN
PUSHING THE FRONT SOUTH WITH THE EFFECTS ONLY BEING AN AIRMASS
CHANGE. THE 0000 UTC ECMWF HAS BACKED OFF A FURTHER SOUTH
SOLUTION. OTHERWISE...AS WE JUST EXPERIENCED...ABOVE NORMAL TO
DOWN RIGHT BALMY CONDITIONS FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
ENTRENCHED OVER MUCH OF THE CWA...A MIXTURE OF STRATUS AND ADVECTION
SEA FOG. EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS...LIFTING OR SCATTERING AROUND 16Z...AS SOUTHWEST FLOW
INCREASES AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. EXPECT MVFR/NEAR VFR CONDITIONS FOR
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...ONLY TO LOWER TO IFR SHORTLY AFTER 00Z.
TONIGHT...DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE CWA...REACHING THE COAST BY 09Z. SHOWERS WILL BE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE COLD
FRONT MAY ACTUALLY HAVE A DRY SLOT WITH IT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS LINGERING THURSDAY MORNING WILL LIFT OUT
BY LATE MORNING WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR. EXPECT VFR FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY...WITH LOWERED CONFIDENCE FOR POTENTIAL IFR FOG/STRATUS
SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM WEDNESDAY...SATELLITE IMAGERY...SURF CAMS...AND
OBSERVATIONS FROM NORTH MYRTLE BEACH AND SOUTHPORT CONTINUE TO
INDICATE EXPANSIVE AREAS OF DENSE SEA FOG THIS MORNING. WE WILL
LIKELY HAVE TO EXTEND THE TIME OF THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY LATER THIS
MORNING AS THE MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING. THERE IS QUITE A THERMAL
GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY REPORTING
AN AIR TEMP OF 75...WHILE 66-67 DEGREE TEMPS ARE BEING REPORTED ON
THE BEACHES NEAR CAPE FEAR.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 15 KT WILL INCREASE FURTHER TONIGHT AS
THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THE INCOMING STRONG COLD FRONT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO INCREASE IN COVERAGE TONIGHT.
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THE ROUGHER CONDITIONS
NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE WHEN TO
CONCLUDE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LATE THURSDAY EVENING. A PERIOD
OF STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY EVENING. FOR NOW WITH THE TIMING STILL OUT FOUR
PERIODS...WILL NOT TWEAK BUT ISSUE THE DISCLAIMER THE HEADLINE MAY
HAVE TO BE EXTENDED A FEW HOURS. WINDS VEER TO NORTHEASTERLY
FRIDAY AND DIMINISH SOMEWHAT TO A MANAGEABLE RANGE OF 15-20 KNOTS
MAINLY TO THE LOWER END. HIGH SEAS EARLY GET CONFINED TO THE OUTER
WATERS WITH THE WIND SHIFT AND REMAIN THERE FOR THE MOST PART.
SOME FIVE TO SIX FOOTERS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS GIVING
THE FRIDAY.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...NORTHEAST FLOW INITIALLY WILL QUICKLY VEER
TO SOUTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AND LEAVES THE WIND FIELD TO
BE FORCED BY LOCAL EFFECTS IE...THE SEABREEZE. THIS WILL OCCUR
LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS WINDS DROP TO BELOW 10 KNOTS. SEAS
FOLLOW A SIMILAR TREND WITH 2-4 FEET INITIALLY DROPPING TO 2-3 FEET.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR AMZ250-252-
254-256.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT EST THURSDAY
NIGHT FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...43
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
412 PM EST WED NOV 16 2011
.SYNOPSIS...
A COMPLICATED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL FINALLY BE MOVING TO THE EAST
TONIGHT AND COLD AIR WILL RETURN FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS. MINOR LAKE
EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED IN THE SNOW BELT...THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SETTLE IN FOR THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH WILL SET UP ALONG THE EAST
COAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WET BUT MILD PATTERN WILL THEN RETURN.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
DEW POINT IN KERI ALREADY INTO THE 30S...AND COLDER AIR ON THE WAY.
WINDS NOW MAINLY NW OVER WRN PA. HRRR AND CURR RADAR TRENDS
INDICATE THAT THERE IS A LIGHTER PATCH IN THE NEARLY CONSTANT RAIN
SHIELD HEADING FOR THE LOWER SUSQ. THE DRIER AIR THAT HAS BEEN
PULLED IN FROM THE SRN PLAINS AND THE CONSOLIDATION OF THE COLD
FRONT AND WARMER/STATIONARY BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH IS STARTING TO
WRAP THE SYSTEM UP A BIT AS IT PULLS NORTHEAST. PSEUDO DEFORMATION
AREA RAIN OVER CENTRAL PA BACK TO ERN KY IS DIMINISHING AT THE
SAME TIME...BUT CONTINUES TO SLIDE EASTWARD. WILL KEEP HIGH POPS
IN FOR THE EVENING BUT TAPER THEM OFF RATHER QUICKLY AND BY 10
PM...ALL BUT THE FAR SE SHOULD BE DRY. TEMPS DROP BELOW FREEZING
IN THE NW JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. CLOUDS COULD HANG ON A LONG TIME
IN THE WEST...THOUGH...AS WRLY UPSLOPE FLOW PRODUCES LIFT. AS IT
GETS COLDER A FEW SHSN WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP OVER THE LAURELS/WRN
HIGHLANDS. DO NOT EXPECT ANY MORE THAN A DUSTING TONIGHT WITH
LITTLE MOISTURE AND SUBSIDENCE BATTLING THE LLVL UPSLOPE. MINS
SHOULD HOLD IN THE 40S IN THE SE HALF OF THE AREA. THERE IS A
TRICKY PART TO THE FORECAST THAT STARTS TONIGHT...BUT LASTS INTO
THE NEXT PD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE FORECAST PROBLEM IS WHETHER A SECONDARY WAVE ON THE OLD FRONT
DEVELOPS SOON ENOUGH AND CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE LOCAL AREA /BUT TO
THE SOUTH/ TO PRODUCE LIGHT PCPN BACK INTO THE COOLING AIR OVER
THE REGION...ESP THE SE. THE WAVE HAS BEEN HINTED AT FOR A FEW
DAYS NOW...SO CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY...BUT THE CUTOFF
OF ANY PRECIP LOOKS RATHER SHARP. IT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE
POSSIBLE PCPN WOULD STAY TO THE S/E OF THE AREA BUT MAKES A CLOSE
PASS. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FROM NAM DO LOOK PLENTY COLD FOR
SNOW...BUT IT WOULD BE FALLING INTO UBER-FREEZING AIR AND DURING
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. WILL CALL IT A CHC OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS FOR
NOW IN THE FAR LWR SUSQ AS IT IS WORTH A MENTION AT THIS POINT.
TEMPS HARDLY MOVE ON THURS UNDER COLD ADVECTION.
AN EASIER PART TO THE FCST IN THE SHORT TERM IS THAT WE WILL
DOUBTLESSLY SEE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS/FLURRIES IN THE WEST...AND
ACCUMS IN THE SNOW BELT OF WARREN CO. POTTER AND MCKEAN COULD ALSO
PICK UP AN INCH OR SO THURSDAY INTO THURS NIGHT. THE AXIS OF THE
UPPER TROUGH CROSSES LAKE ERIE MID-DAY THURSDAY AND SHOULD DRIVE
THE HEAVIEST SNOWS INLAND DURING THE LATE DAY AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. DURATION OF THE BEST BANDS WOULD PROBABLY BE ONLY UNTIL
FRIDAY MORNING...AS 8H THERMAL TROUGH OF -12C AIR PASSES BY 12Z
FRI. LOCAL PROGRAM GIVES BAND OF AROUND 80 MI EVEN WITH THE
FAVORABLE 280-290 FETCH AND DEEP 10KFT INVERSION. WIND SPEEDS ARE
ONLY 30KTS...BUT ARE WELL-ALIGNED VERTICALLY. STORM TOTALS MIGHT
GET INTO THE 3-4 INCH RANGE OVER 18-20 HRS. THIS IS NOT QUITE
WORTH AN ADVY YET...ESP SINCE IT IS A LATE 2ND/3RD PD EVENT.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER TROF EXITING THE EASTERN U.S. AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL
TRANSITION TO BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WHICH IS THEN FORECAST TO
DOMINATE MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. FLOW IS FORECAST TO TURN
MORE WESTERLY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AS ENERGY OVER THE WESTERN
U.S. WORKS ITS WAY EAST.
AS THE UPPER TROUGH BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN US LATER THIS
WEEK...THE SOUTHEASTERN RIDGE SHOULD PUSH WARMER AIR INTO OUR
REGION SATURDAY. THE 850 HPA TEMPERATURES ARE PREDICTED TO BE 1SD
ABOVE NORMAL LATE SATURDAY ACROSS THE NW PART OF THE STATE...AND
AREA- WIDE ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES WITH THE NEXT
CHC FOR SHOWERS LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST
TO STALL OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TO BRING MORE PCPN INTO THE REGION NEXT
MONDAY INTO TUE...BUT THE DETAILS AT THIS POINT ARE ANYTHING BUT CLEAR.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW CIGS STARTING TO LIFT AS THE COLDER AND DRIER AIR UNDERCUTS THE
MOISTURE WHICH IS GETTING CUT OFF FROM THE GOMEX ALREADY.
IMPROVEMENT MAY BE SLOW IN KJST WITH WINDS WNW IN A GOOD UPSLOPE
ORIENTATION. SHSN MAY START IN KJST TONIGHT...BUT WILL KEEP FCST
BETTER THAN VFR FOR NOW. RAIN SHIELD SHOULD GRADUALLY SHRINK AND
SLIDE TO THE EAST PER TRENDS IN RADAR MOSAIC AND MESO MDLS. SLOW
MOVEMENT TO THE SFC TROUGH TO THE SE WILL KEEP LIGHT RAIN GOING
FOR MOST OF THE EVENING IN THE SE. LITTLE/NO PRECIP EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT...BUT A SECONDARY WAVE MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT TO OUR SOUTH
AND THROW SOME COLDER PRECIP BACK IN FROM THE SE. LOW POSS AT THIS
POINT...AND AT THE OUTER REACHES OF THIS 18Z 24HR TAF PD...BUT
SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR ON THURS. UPSLOPE IN THE WEST AND OFF LAKE
ERIE WILL GENERATE LAKE EFFECT THURS AFTN INTO FRI AM VCTY KBFD.
OUTLOOK...
FRI-SAT...VFR. NO SIG WX.
SUN...GENERALLY VFR. MVFR POSS LATE.
MON...MVFR TS/SHRA/CIGS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/GARTNER
AVIATION...DANGELO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
258 PM EST WED NOV 16 2011
.SYNOPSIS...
A COMPLICATED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL FINALLY BE MOVING TO THE EAST
TONIGHT AND COLD AIR WILL RETURN FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS. MINOR LAKE
EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED IN THE SNOW BELT...THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SETTLE IN FOR THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH WILL SET UP ALONG THE EAST
COAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WET BUT MILD PATTERN WILL THEN RETURN.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DEW POINT IN KERI ALREADY INTO THE 30S...AND COLDER AIR ON THE WAY.
WINDS NOW MAINLY NW OVER WRN PA. HRRR AND CURR RADAR TRENDS
INDICATE THAT THERE IS A LIGHTER PATCH IN THE NEARLY CONSTANT RAIN
SHIELD HEADING FOR THE LOWER SUSQ. THE DRIER AIR THAT HAS BEEN
PULLED IN FROM THE SRN PLAINS AND THE CONSOLIDATION OF THE COLD
FRONT AND WARMER/STATIONARY BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH IS STARTING TO
WRAP THE SYSTEM UP A BIT AS IT PULLS NORTHEAST. PSEUDO DEFORMATION
AREA RAIN OVER CENTRAL PA BACK TO ERN KY IS DIMINISHING AT THE
SAME TIME...BUT CONTINUES TO SLIDE EASTWARD. WILL KEEP HIGH POPS
IN FOR THE EVENING BUT TAPER THEM OFF RATHER QUICKLY AND BY 10
PM...ALL BUT THE FAR SE SHOULD BE DRY. TEMPS DROP BELOW FREEZING
IN THE NW JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. CLOUDS COULD HANG ON A LONG TIME
IN THE WEST...THOUGH...AS WRLY UPSLOPE FLOW PRODUCES LIFT. AS IT
GETS COLDER A FEW SHSN WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP OVER THE LAURELS/WRN
HIGHLANDS. DO NOT EXPECT ANY MORE THAN A DUSTING TONIGHT WITH
LITTLE MOISTURE AND SUBSIDENCE BATTLING THE LLVL UPSLOPE. MINS
SHOULD HOLD IN THE 40S IN THE SE HALF OF THE AREA. THERE IS A
TRICKY PART TO THE FORECAST THAT STARTS TONIGHT...BUT LASTS INTO
THE NEXT PD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE FORECAST PROBLEM IS WHETHER A SECONDARY WAVE ON THE OLD FRONT
DEVELOPS SOON ENOUGH AND CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE LOCAL AREA /BUT TO
THE SOUTH/ TO PRODUCE LIGHT PCPN BACK INTO THE COOLING AIR OVER
THE REGION...ESP THE SE. THE WAVE HAS BEEN HINTED AT FOR A FEW
DAYS NOW...SO CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY...BUT THE CUTOFF
OF ANY PRECIP LOOKS RATHER SHARP. IT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE
POSSIBLE PCPN WOULD STAY TO THE S/E OF THE AREA BUT MAKES A CLOSE
PASS. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FROM NAM DO LOOK PLENTY COLD FOR
SNOW...BUT IT WOULD BE FALLING INTO UBER-FREEZING AIR AND DURING
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. WILL CALL IT A CHC OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS FOR
NOW IN THE FAR LWR SUSQ AS IT IS WORTH A MENTION AT THIS POINT.
TEMPS HARDLY MOVE ON THURS UNDER COLD ADVECTION.
AN EASIER PART TO THE FCST IN THE SHORT TERM IS THAT WE WILL
DOUBTLESSLY SEE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS/FLURRIES IN THE WEST...AND
ACCUMS IN THE SNOW BELT OF WARREN CO. POTTER AND MCKEAN COULD ALSO
PICK UP AN INCH OR SO THURSDAY INTO THURS NIGHT. THE AXIS OF THE
UPPER TROUGH CROSSES LAKE ERIE MID-DAY THURSDAY AND SHOULD DRIVE
THE HEAVIEST SNOWS INLAND DURING THE LATE DAY AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. DURATION OF THE BEST BANDS WOULD PROBABLY BE ONLY UNTIL
FRIDAY MORNING...AS 8H THERMAL TROUGH OF -12C AIR PASSES BY 12Z
FRI. LOCAL PROGRAM GIVES BAND OF AROUND 80 MI EVEN WITH THE
FAVORABLE 280-290 FETCH AND DEEP 10KFT INVERSION. WIND SPEEDS ARE
ONLY 30KTS...BUT ARE WELL-ALIGNED VERTICALLY. STORM TOTALS MIGHT
GET INTO THE 3-4 INCH RANGE OVER 18-20 HRS. THIS IS NOT QUITE
WORTH AN ADVY YET...ESP SINCE IT IS A LATE 2ND/3RD PD EVENT.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD AS UPPER LOW SETS OVER CENTRAL CANADA AND UPPER RIDGING
STRETCHES OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN. ONE UPPER
TROF MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...THEN A
SERIES OF WAVE MOVE THROUGH LATE IN THE PERIOD TURNING THE FLOW
MORE ZONAL EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES MODERATE BACK TOWARD
NORMAL FRIDAY.
AS THE UPPER TROUGH BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN US LATER THIS
WEEK...THE SOUTHEASTERN RIDGE SHOULD PUSH WARMER AIR INTO OUR
REGION SATURDAY. THE 850 HPA TEMPERATURES ARE PREDICTED TO BE 1SD
ABOVE NORMAL LATE SATURDAY ACROSS THE NW PART OF THE STATE...AND
AREA- WIDE ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES WITH THE NEXT
CHC FOR SHOWERS LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST
TO STALL OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TO BRING MORE PCPN INTO THE REGION NEXT
MONDAY INTO TUE...BUT THE DETAILS AT THIS POINT ARE ANYTHING BUT CLEAR.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW CIGS STRTING TO LIFT AS THE COLDER AND DRIER AIR UNDERCUTS THE
MOISTURE WHICH IS GETTING CUT OFF FROM THE GOMEX ALREADY.
IMPROVEMENT MAY BE SLOW IN KJST WITH WINDS WNW IN A GOOD UPSLOPE
ORIENTATION. SHSN MAY START IN KJST TONIGHT...BUT WILL KEEP FCST
BETTER THAN VFR FOR NOW. RAIN SHIELD SHOULD GRADUALLY SHRINK AND
SLIDE TO THE EAST PER TRENDS IN RADAR MOSAIC AND MESO MDLS. SLOW
MOVEMENT TO THE SFC TROUGH TO THE SE WILL KEEP LIGHT RAIN GOING
FOR MOST OF THE EVENING IN THE SE. LITTLE/NO PRECIP EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT...BUT A SECONDARY WAVE MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT TO OUR SOUTH
AND THROW SOME COLDER PRECIP BACK IN FROM THE SE. LOW POSS AT THIS
POINT...AND AT THE OUTER REACHES OF THIS 18Z 24HR TAF PD...BUT
SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR ON THURS. UPSLOPE IN THE WEST AND OFF LAKE
ERIE WILL GENERATE LAKE EFFECT THURS AFTN INTO FRI AM VCTY KBFD.
OUTLOOK...
FRI-SAT...VFR. NO SIG WX.
SUN...GENERALLY VFR. MVFR POSS LATE.
MON...MVFR TS/SHRA/CIGS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/GARTNER
AVIATION...DANGELO