Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 11/15/11
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS EUREKA CA
357 PM PST MON NOV 14 2011
.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR A FEW
SHOWERS TUESDAY TO AREAS NEAR THE OREGON BORDER. THE NEXT
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY. SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AND WETTER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM...VIS SAT SHOWS MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH SOME STUBBORN LOW CLOUDS ARE
LINGERING AROUND THE HUMBOLDT BAY AREA. FOG IS EXPECTED TO FORM
ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE INLAND VALLEYS AGAIN TONIGHT. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TONIGHT BEFORE A WEAK FRONT SAGS SOUTH IN
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. A FEW
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED IN DEL NORTE AND NORTHERN HUMBOLDT
COUNTIES...ALTHOUGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN
A TENTH OF AN INCH.
.LONG TERM...MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING ALTHOUGH A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE OREGON BORDER. MODELS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT THAT A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. INITIALLY SNOW LEVELS WILL BE 6 TO 8
KFT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN A QUARTER AND A
HALF INCH OF FROM THE SYSTEM. BEHIND THIS FRONT SNOW LEVELS WILL
BEGIN TO FALL ON THURSDAY. AT THIS POINT MODELS ARE INDICATING A
BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIP ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALTHOUGH
TIMING IS STILL IN QUESTION THIS FAR OUT. MODELS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT ON ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING DOWN INTO THE AREA LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER QUICK
SHOT OF PRECIP. SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL AS THIS PRECIP
MOVES INTO THE AREA. MODELS ARE SHOWING SNOW LEVELS AS LOW AS 2 TO
3 KFT BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE EXACT TIMING OF THE COLD AND PRECIP
WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY AS THIS COULD IMPACT THE SNOW
AMOUNTS SIGNIFICANTLY. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR SNOW MAY NEEDED ON FRIDAY. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST ON SATURDAY WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM OVERHEAD. SNOW
LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 2 TO 2.5 KFT ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT. MKK
&&
.AVIATION...FOG BANK ALONG THE REDWOOD COAST IS CREATING HAVOC WITH
THE COASTAL TAFS AS E EDGE PERIODICALLY MOVES ACROSS KACV AND KCEC.
HAVE INCLUDED MVFR OVERNIGHT AT THESE SITES AS FOG AND/OR CIGS MAY
EXPAND INLAND PER NAM AND RUC GUIDANCE. IFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP
THIS EVENING WITH A WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW POSSIBLY BRINGING SOME
IMPROVEMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT. VFR EXPECTED AT KUKI. /SEC
&&
.MARINE...HAVE EXTENDED THE OFFSHORE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ANOTHER 6
HRS. HAVE LEANED HEAVILY ON THE ECMWF MODEL WHICH DOWNPLAYS SFC LOW
DEVELOPMENT OFF THE COAST ON THE WEEKEND. BIGGEST MARINE CONCERN
CONTINUES TO BE BUILDING SWELL LATE IN THE WEEK WITH 17 FT SWELL
POSSIBLE OVER THE EXTREME NW OFFSHORE WATERS. /SEC
&&
.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PST TUESDAY PZZ450-455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PST TUESDAY PZZ470-475.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS EUREKA CA
445 AM PST SUN NOV 13 2011
.SYNOPSIS...
ANY LINGERING CLOUDS WILL GIVE WAY TO SUNSHINE TODAY. GENERALLY DRY
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH JUST SOME
OCCASIONAL SLIGHT CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAINFALL NEAR THE OREGON BORDER.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR A SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH COOLER AND DAMP WEATHER CONTINUING INTO THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK TROUGH PUSHING INLAND ACROSS
OREGON HAS PUSHED THROUGH A BIT QUICKER THAN PROGGED THUS PULLED
POPS FROM THE REST OF TODAY. RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK VORT MAX
CONTINUING TO PUSH TO OUR SOUTH WITH NVA ACROSS NRN CA. DRYING IS
ALREADY OCCURRING AT THE MID LEVELS BUT THERE IS STILL SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LAGGING BEHIND AS EVIDENCED BY SOME LOWER CEILINGS AT NORTH
COASTAL SITES. ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT THESE WILL SCATTER OUT NO
LATER THAN THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS CONTINUE THIS PATTERN OF WNW FLOW
WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES PASSING BY IN ONSHORE FLOW. THE GENERAL TREND
WILL BE FOR HEIGHTS TO RISE AND DRIER AIR TO MOVE IN THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM WED NT/THU...ALTHOUGH
EVEN THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT LOOK AS MAJOR AS EARLIER ADVERTISED. KEPT
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR A COUPLE PERIODS MON NT/TUE BUT AM NOT CONVINCED
WE SEE ANY MORE THAN THE SHOWER OR TWO THAT WE SAW WITH THIS CURRENT
PASSING TROUGH. CLOUD COVER WILL BE MORE PROBLEMATIC. THIS TIME OF
YEAR EXPECT LESS IN THE WAY OF FOG OR REALLY LOW CEILINGS WITH THE
TENDENCY FOR MORE MIXING AND SUNSHINE ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST EACH
AFTERNOON. MODELS DIFFER ON DETAILS OF COLD UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSION
FOR LATE WEEK BUT THE BOTTOM LINE WILL BE A COOL SHOWERY PATTERN
WITH MUCH LOWER SNOW LEVELS. HOWEVER THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION PRODUCER FOR AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...PRIMARILY VFR WITH MID TO HIGH CIGS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SOME PATCHY MVFR CIGS AT THE COAST NEAR KACV FROM ADVECTING MARINE
STRATOCUMULUS THIS MORNING SHOULD SCATTER OUT BY MID MORNING. MKN
&&
.MARINE...N WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
OVERNIGHT. AS WINDS SUBSIDE BELOW SCA VALUES THE NW SWELL IS
INCREASING OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY SO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE
OFF SHORE AND ARE IN PLACE FOR TONIGHT THRU TUE INSIDE 10 NM. MKN
&&
.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM PST TUESDAY
PZZ450-455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PST TUESDAY
PZZ470-475.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS PUEBLO CO
517 PM MST MON NOV 14 2011
.UPDATE...
UPDATED GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR ENDING OF RED FLAG WARNING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 PM MST MON NOV 14 2011/
SHORT TERM...
(TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS EL PASO AND
PUEBLO COUNTIES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...DUE TO A COMBINATION OF
LEE TROFFING AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MODELS DID NOT HAVE A VERY
GOOD HANDLE ON DEW POINTS TODAY...AS DRY AIR BEHIND YESTERDAY`S
DEPARTING SYSTEM TANKED DEW POINTS INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND
10 DEGREES ALONG THE LOWER EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS
AND I-25 CORRIDOR. RUC13 AND HRRR WERE THE FIRST TO CATCH ON TO
THIS. SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT IS TIGHTEST ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA WHICH WILL KEEP BREEZY WEST WINDS ACROSS PUEBLO AND EL PASO
COUNTY THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. FARTHER EAST OF
THE I-25 CORRIDOR...HAVE SEEN SOME OCCASIONALLY BREEZY WEST WINDS
KICK IN AS FAR EAST AS LHX...HOWEVER THEY HAVE BEEN LESS
PERSISTENT...AND THINK THAT IT WON`T QUITE MAKE THE 3 HOUR DURATION
REQUIRED FOR A RED FLAG WARNING. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER 00Z.
WITH THE DRY AIR IN PLACE...CHALLENGE WILL BE HOW COOL LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP. LOWER EASTERN SLOPES NEAR THE MTS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE SOME WESTERLY DRAINAGE WINDS OVERNIGHT WHICH
SHOULD KEEP MIN TEMPS AROUND 40. HOWEVER WHERE WINDS
DECOUPLE...EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP
QUICKLY. HAVE GONE ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR LOWS NEAR THE MTS...BUT KEPT
MINS ON THE LOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE ELSEWHERE.
FOR TOMORROW...NEXT WEAK WAVE EMBEDDED IN NW FLOW ALOFT WILL
APPROACH THE AREA. SHOULD SEE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS RAMP UP FOR
THE CENTRAL MTS. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHTER TOMORROW ACROSS THE
PLAINS...THOUGH A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH NRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
IN THE AFTERNOON. OVERALL TEMPS SHOULD NET A FEW DEGREES COOLER
ACROSS THE PLAINS. ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS MAY SPREAD ACROSS NORTHERN
EL PASO COUNTY IN THE LATE AFTN AS UPPER JET DYNAMICS MOVES IN ALOFT
AND FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. THINK MAIN THREAT WILL BE IN THE
EVENING...SO WILL MAINTAIN THE 10 POPS FOR NOW. -KT
LONG TERM...
(TUESDAY NIGHT-MONDAY)
TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION AS ANOTHER EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE
TRANSLATES ACROSS THE ROCKIES. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND CROSS SECTIONS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A FAIRLY SHALLOW LAYER OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE
STREAMING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT DIFFER ON LOCATION
OF BEST UVV WITH WITH PASSING JET CORE. AT ANY RATE...WITH CONTINUED
GOOD OROGRAPHIC FLOW...BEST POPS TO REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN
SAWATCH AND MOSQUITO RANGES EARLY TUESDAY EVENING WITH ANY SNOWFALL
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT TUESDAY. HAVE ALSO KEPT SLIGHT POPS ACROSS THE
PIKES PEAK REGION AS WELL...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A QUICK SHOT A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE GENERALLY
BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE PLAINS
WITH LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY...MODERATING WESTERLY FLOW PROGGED ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS JET STREAM LIFTS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER OF STATES. DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPS WARMING BACK TO
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES CAN BE EXPECTED. LEE TROUGHING ON THE PLAINS
WILL ALSO LEAD TO BREEZY CONDITIONS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
FRIDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...MODELS COMING INTO THE BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
SNOWFALL BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
ALONG AND WEST OF THE CONTDVD AS WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES
AHEAD OF AN EASTERN PACIFIC SYSTEM DIGGING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN
FRIDAY WHICH CONTINUES TO LIFT OUT ACROSS THE STATE ON SATURDAY.
PASSING WAVE LOOKS TO BRING ANOTHER BOUT OF WINDY TO VERY WINDY
CONDITIONS TO THE EASTERN MTS AND PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGING IN A MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS TO
THE AREA ON SUNDAY. AT THIS TIME...THE BULK OF THE COLDEST AIR LOOKS
TO REMAIN WELL EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...THOUGH WILL
NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR. -MW
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL 3 TAF SITES THROUGH TUESDAY. SOME GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT THE TAF SITES UNTIL 01-02Z...WITH
LIGHT DRAINAGE WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. ON TUESDAY...WEAK FRONT
WILL DROP THROUGH THE PLAINS WITH WINDS AT KCOS STAYING OUT OF THE
NW DURING THE MORNING. FOR KPUB...FRONT WILL LIKELY BACKDOOR IN
WITH WINDS SWITCHING AROUND FROM THE EAST DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON. MAIN NORTHERLY SURGE WITH THE FRONT WILL DROP IN
TOMORROW EVENING BRINGING A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTH WINDS OF 15
TO 25 KTS. MEANWHILE...WINDS AT KALS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OVERNIGHT
BEFORE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH AROUND 10 KTS TUES AFTN. -KT
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
928 PM MST SAT NOV 12 2011
.UPDATE...THE MOUNTAIN WINDS ARE BLOWING STRONG IN POCKETS MAINLY
NEAR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THE SNOWFALL HAS NOT BEEN OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE SO FAR. AT 9 PM RADAR INDICATES THE COLD FRONT WAS
ORIENTED W-E JUST SOUTH OF MEEKER. THE 00Z NAM SHOWS LITTLE
ADDITIONAL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE TONIGHT AS
MOST OF ITS ENERGY SHEARS EAST OF THE DIVIDE. THEREFORE THE EAGLE
PORTION OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR WILL STAY IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE
STORM AND WILL PRODUCE RAIN TONIGHT INSTEAD OF SNOW. NORTH OF THE
FRONT...GUSTY WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG BUT SNOWFALL WILL DIMINISH IN
A LULL BEFORE THE NEXT UPPER WAVE ARRIVES EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT
TONIGHT MAINLY OROGRAPHICALLY DRIVEN IN THE STRONG WEST FLOW. THE
SW SAN JUAN MTNS...ALWAYS ON THE CUSP OF A HIGHLIGHT SNOW AMOUNT
WILL MOST LIKELY ONLY SEE A FEW INCHES OF SNOWFALL ON SUNDAY.
THEREFORE HAVE PULLED DOWN ADVISORIES FOR THERE AND THE EAGLE AREA.
ONE WORRISOME DETAIL FOR THE NORTHERN VALLEYS...THE OVERRUNNING
EVENT TOWARDS SUNDAY MORNING NOW NEVER SATURATES FULLY WITHIN THE
DENDRITIC CRYSTAL GROWTH REGION. WE WILL LOOK AT THIS AND OTHER
DETAILS FOR THE MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 851 PM MST SAT NOV 12 2011/
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT 2 PM THE SURFACE FRONT WAS THROUGH SLC AND APPROACHING PROVO AND
VERNAL...WITH SNOW FALLING AT HILL AFB AND EVANSTON WY...SO IT IS
RIGHT ON TRACK ACCORDING TO MODEL TIMING. ALSO AS PROJECTED THE
ACTIVE AREA OF THE FRONT IS DIMINISHING IN SIZE AND THE FRONTAL ZONE
IS GROWING THINNER IN SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS. THE PERIOD
OF MAXIMUM ACTIVE WEATHER IN NE UT AND NW CO WILL BE RELATIVELY BRIEF
TONIGHT. PRIME TIME FOR BEST SNOWFALL AND STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD BE
BETWEEN 9 PM AND MIDNIGHT. HAVE INCREASED THE CHC OF PRECIP OVER THE
NORTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE AREA...VALLEYS AND MOUNTAINS...FOR THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...HAVING HIGHER CERTAINTY WITH THIS INITIAL
SPURT OF RAIN AND SNOW. THE SNOWFALL IN THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD BE
ENOUGH FOR SEVERAL INCHES TO ACCUMULATE...ALONG WITH STRONG WESTERLY
FLOW AT AND JUST BELOW MOUNTAINTOP LEVEL. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR
THE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO MATERIALIZE. STILL EXPECT RABBIT EARS AND
VAIL PASSES TO SEE G50-60MPH THIS EVENING...WITH DRIFTING AND
WHITEOUT CONDITIONS MAKING TRAVEL DANGEROUS IF NOT IMPOSSIBLE.
AFTER THIS FRONT PASSES THERE WILL BE A LULL IN THE WINTER WEATHER
BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z TONIGHT. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A SECOND SURGE
SUNDAY. THIS WEAKER FRONT WILL BRING COOLER AIR THAT WILL RUN INTO
SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR IN PLACE OVER THE AREA. SOME OVERRUNNING IS
POSSIBLE RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL OVER NW AND CENTRAL CO...
INCLUDING THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
COLDER CONDITIONS AND RAPID CLEARING WILL FOLLOW THE SECOND SYSTEM
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
THANKS TO BOU PUB AND ABQ FOR COORDINATION.
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT-WAVE TRAIN FROM THE ALEUTIANS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BEHIND
THIS STORM SYSTEM AND RE-ENFORCE THE NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. 295K THETA SURFACE
NOT SHOWING A LARGE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM THE
PACIFIC...BUT IT IS TAKING A FAVORABLE ROUTE AND NOT BEING SQUEEZED
OUT BY ANY BIG RANGES BEFORE HITTING THE NORTHERN COLORADO
MOUNTAINS. THE LARGE SCALE ASCENT INCREASES AFTER MIDNIGHT ON MONDAY
WHEN JET SUPPORT ARRIVES ALONG WITH THE STRONGEST OF THE EMBEDDED
WAVES. OROGRAPHICS SHOULD CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE WESTERN ASPECTS FROM
STEAMBOAT DOWN TO CRESTED BUTTE...AND HAVE NUDGED POPS UP SLIGHTLY
WITH ONLY A FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION STILL INDICATED.
THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO DE-AMPLIFY DURING THE MID WEEK
TIME FRAME BUT A BUILDING RIDGE INTO THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC/GULF OF
ALASKA REGION...WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER TROF TO BEGIN TO CARVE OUT
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST STATES BY LATE IN THE WEEK. THE TREND THE
WESTERN TROF FORMATION HAS BEEN SLOWED DOWN FROM PREVIOUS RUNS AND
THIS SHOULD KEEP MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE THROUGH LATE WEEK.
WITH THE STRONGER WESTERLY...THEN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE A
REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES SHOULD OCCUR AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE TO
AT LEAST SEASONAL LEVELS BY MID WEEK AND POSSIBLY ABOVE IN AN
INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN. THERE ARE SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES BY THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEKEND WHEN THE FIRST LEADING
ENERGY EJECTS FROM THE TROF INTO THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN AND
THEREFORE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE.
&&
.AVIATION /FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
WITH THE COLD FRONT BECOMING STATIONARY JUST NORTH OF THE I-70
CORRIDOR... LOCAL IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE MOST
MTNS OVERNIGHT. A SECOND UPPER WAVE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHRASN TO
THE VALLEYS TOWARDS SUNDAY MORNING AND MTNS WILL BE MOSTLY OBSCURED.
STRONG WEST WINDS OF 40-60KTS AT 10,000FT MSL WILL PRODUCING STRONG
TURBULENCE. THE HIGHER TERMINAL SITES WILL MOST LIKELY SEE IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT IN LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WITH THE
MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER PASSES OBSCURED BY LOW CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION.
LOWER ELEVATIONS TAF SITES SUCH AS KGJT...KMTJ...KVEL WILL SLOWLY
DEGRADE TOWARD SUNRISE ON SUNDAY WHEN A SECONDARY SYSTEM PUSHES
THROUGH WITH ADDITIONAL MOISTURE.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MST SUNDAY FOR ZONES 002-003-
005-009-018.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST SUNDAY NIGHT FOR ZONES
010-012.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST SUNDAY NIGHT FOR ZONES
004-013.
UT...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE.......JOE
SHORT TERM...CJC
LONG TERM....15
AVIATION.....TGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
312 PM CST SUN NOV 13 2011
.DISCUSSION...
1008 AM CST
THE CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL AND SHORT TERM MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE A VERY WINDY AFTERNOON...WITH SCATTERING OF THE CLOUDS
CURRENTLY OVER CHICAGOLAND. WIND GUSTS HAVE ALREADY BEEN OBSERVED
TO 45 MPH IN PONTIAC...48 MPH IN CHAMPAIGN-URBANA...AND EVEN UP
TO 55 MPH FURTHER SOUTH IN CENTRAL IL...WHICH IS IN THE UPSTREAM
FLOW. STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW SEEN ON THIS MORNINGS RAOBS AND
PROFILES IS ATOP THE AREA AND ASSOCIATED WAVE ACROSS IOWA IS
MOVING QUICKLY EAST. A 990 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR WATERLOO IS
CORRELATED WITH THIS AND HAS HELPED TO BETTER DEFINE A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH WHERE WINDS SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST AND RAPIDLY INCREASE. THE
ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT IS ITS STRONGEST IN THIS AREA AS WELL. THIS
TROUGH IS ALSO NEAR THE LEADING EDGE OF THE CLEARING LINE
FURTHERING MIXING AS IT ENTERS THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA THROUGH
NOON. THE HRRR WIND GUST FORECASTS DO SHOW THE AXIS OF 40 TO NEAR
50 MPH GUSTS COMING EAST NEAR THE INTERSTATE 39 CORRIDOR TOWARDS
WATSEKA AROUND NOON MOVING INTO CHICAGO BY 1 TO 3 PM. HAVE
EXPANDED WIND ADVISORY TO INCLUDE THE FAR NORTHWEST FORECAST AREA
AS ROCKFORD SOUNDINGS ON THE 12Z NAM SUPPORT WIND ADVISORY
SUSTAINED SPEEDS BEING REACHED SOON.
MTF
//PREV DISCUSSION...
327 AM CST
A VERY ACTIVE PROGRESSIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...THE MAIN
CONCERN WILL FOCUS ON WINDS. WITH A VERY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS OF 50-60KT RIGHT OFF THE
DECK...WINDS HAVE BEEN RATHER STRONG AND GUSTY THROUGH THE NIGHT.
EXPECT THE STRONG WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. WITH
SOME PARTIAL CLEARING EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...IT IS LIKELY THAT
WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 50 MPH MAY MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. SO...WILL
MAINTAIN THE WIND ADVISORY THAT IS IN PLACE FOR TODAY. THE ONE
PORTION OF THE CWA THAT MAY ESCAPE THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE THE
FAR NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...INCLUDING THE ROCKFORD AREA.
A SHORT WAVE TRACKING OVER SRN WISCONSIN TODAY SHOULD INDUCE A WEAK
SFC WAVE THAT WILL TRACK THROUGH NWRN IL AND SRN WISCONSIN. THIS
MAY INTRODUCE ENOUGH BAGGINESS TO THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT
WINDS MAY NOT GET QUITE AS STRONG THERE.
THE OTHER CONCERN FOR THE NEAR TERM FORECAST WILL BE THE CHANCES FOR
SOME SPRINKLES OF DRIZZLE FOR THE MORNING HOURS. THE LATEST SFC
ANALYSIS INDICATES A TONGUE OF ENHANCED MOISTURE FROM THE RED RIVER
VALLEY...THROUGH THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO
ILLINOIS...WITH SFC DEWPOINTS EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE UPPER 40S.
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...THE STRONG SLY-SSWLY FLOW SHOULD
CONTINUE TO ADVECT MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA WITH SFC
DEWPOINTS REACHING INTO THE LOWER 50S. THE SHORT WAVE TRACKING
ACROSS SRN WISCONSIN SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING TO GENERATE SOME
SHOWERS FOR THE NRN TIER COUNTIES. HOWEVER...WITH THE MOISTURE
CONFINED TO THE LOWER LEVELS...WITH RH TIME SECTIONS ONLY INDICATING
NEAR SATURATED CONDITIONS BELOW 6KFT...AND A LAYER OF DRY AIR
ABOVE...EXPECT ANY PCPN SOUTH OF THE NRN TIER COUNTIES TO BE EITHER
LIGHT SPRINKLES OR DRIZZLE. BY THIS AFTERNOON...THE SHORT WAVE
SHOULD PUSH OFF TO THE EAST AND AT LEAST PARTIALLY CLEARING SKIES
SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME SUNSHINE.
BY SUNSET...WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE AND FOCUS OF CONCERN WILL
SHIFT TO THE NEXT SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE REGION. THE MODELS ARE
ADVERTISING A SRN STREAM SHORT WAVE WILL DROP OUT OF THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES AND TRACK ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. THE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY
LIFT NEWD ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OVERNIGHT AND INTO
IL/IN BY MIDDAY MONDAY. PERSISTENT SWLY SFC FLOW WILL DRAW MORE
GULF MOISTURE TOWARD THE REGION. FAST SWLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE
UPPER TROUGH SHOULD SHEAR OUT THE SHORT WAVE...AND THE BEST FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM, WILL FOCUS FROM CNTRL IL TO NRN/CNTRL
INDIANA. THERE SHOULD BE ADEQUATE WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT TO BRING SOME PCPN TO MUCH OF THE CWA...BUT THE HEAVIEST PCPN
SHOULD BE OVER THE SERN PORTIONS...GENERALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF A
LINE FROM CHICAGO TO PONTIAC. THERE IS A REMOTE CHANCE FOR SOME
THUNDER WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT WITH THE BEST FORCING SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE CWA...WILL NOT CARRY ANY MENTION OF TS IN THE FORECAST.
THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN VERY PROGRESSIVE INTO MIDWEEK AND THE NEXT
SYSTEM OF CONCERN...A STRONG NRN STREAM SYSTEM WILL DROP ACROSS THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY EARLY
TUESDAY EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WILL DRAG A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA BRINGING A SHOT OF COLD AIR OUT OF CANADA. STRONG COLD
ADVECTION WILL SET UP FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH 850MB TEMPS
ON THE ORDER OF -8 TO -10C SPREADING ACROSS NRN IL/IN. BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
AMPLE SUNSHINE SHOULD ONLY PARTIALLY COUNTERACT THE COLD ADVECTION
AND TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL HAVE A HARD TIME REACTING...ONLY
REACHING INTO THE UPPER 30S OR LOWER 40S.
FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN RATHER QUIET THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE LOWER
50S BY FRIDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PCPN WILL COME FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE ACTUALLY RELATIVELY CONSISTENT ON
EJECTING SOME SRN STREAM ENERGY OUT OF THE CNTRL ROCKIES AND
DEVELOPING A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS TO THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AN OPEN GULF WOULD ALLOW FOR A DECENT RETURN
FLOW OF MOISTURE OVERRUNNING THE BOUNDARY...BRINGING CHANCES OF RAIN
FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
KREIN
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 21Z...
* WINDS GUSTS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.
* POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN ON MONDAY.
KJB
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
THE MAIN ISSUES BY FAR ARE THE SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. THE
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS LATE THIS MORNING SHOWS THE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ACROSS EAST CENTRAL IOWA.
SURFACE WINDS TO THE EAST OF THIS FEATURE HAVE REALLY JUMPED UP OVER
THE PAST FEW HOURS ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND NORTHWESTERN INDIANA
AS STRONG PRESSURE FALLS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE AN INCREASE IN
THE WINDS AT KORD AND KMDW HERE WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AS THE
SURFACE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS
AND STRONG PRESSURE RISES COMMENCE TO THE WEST. THEREFORE...WE ARE
STILL EXPECTING THE WINDS TO BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE
AROUND 25 TO 30 KT WITH GUSTS AROUND 40 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THESE WINDS WILL QUICKLY ABATE AROUND SUNSET.
ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS ON MONDAY. THIS LOOKS TO
BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS ON MONDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER...THE MAJORITY OF THE RAINFALL WILL REMAIN TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE TAF SITES.
KJB
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 21Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS ABATING THIS EVENING.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN RAIN CHANCES ON MONDAY.
KJB
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
MONDAY NIGHT...VFR.
TUESDAY...VFR WITH BREEZY WEST WINDS.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY...VFR WITH SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHRA FRIDAY
NIGHT.
SATURDAY...CHANCE SHRA.
MDB
&&
.MARINE...
217 PM CST
IT LOOKS LIKE AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BRING SEVERAL WIND
EVENTS ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. OUR CURRENT
GALE FORCE WINDS LOOK TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTH
HALF OF THE LAKE. HOWEVER...FARTHER NORTH THE WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED
BELOW GALE FORCE AND SHOULD REMAIN SUB GALE. THEREFORE...I HAVE
DECIDED TO END THE GALE WARNING EARLY FOR THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE LAKE.
THE WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE 10 TO 25 KT RANGE ACROSS THE
LAKE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...THERE ARE A FEW PERIODS WHERE
STRONGER WINDS NEAR GALE FORCE LOOK POSSIBLE. FIRST...A STRONG COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER LAKE MICHIGAN LATE TUESDAY...AND MORE
LIKELY EARLY TUESDAY EVENING. THIS LOOKS TO PRODUCE A PERIOD OF SOME
GALE FORCE WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS MUCH COLDER AIR
SPILLS OVER THE LAKE AND SETS UP SOME UNSTABLE CONDITIONS.
THEN LATER IN THE WEEK ANOTHER STRONG STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE COUNTY. THIS LOOKS TO SET UP
SOME STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
KJB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...WIND ADVISORY...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-ILZ011-
ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ022-ILZ023-
ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039 UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY.
IN...WIND ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011-INZ019 UNTIL 6 PM
SUNDAY.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ740-
LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-
LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 UNTIL 9 PM SUNDAY.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
219 PM CST SUN NOV 13 2011
.DISCUSSION...
1008 AM CST
THE CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL AND SHORT TERM MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE A VERY WINDY AFTERNOON...WITH SCATTERING OF THE CLOUDS
CURRENTLY OVER CHICAGOLAND. WIND GUSTS HAVE ALREADY BEEN OBSERVED
TO 45 MPH IN PONTIAC...48 MPH IN CHAMPAIGN-URBANA...AND EVEN UP
TO 55 MPH FURTHER SOUTH IN CENTRAL IL...WHICH IS IN THE UPSTREAM
FLOW. STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW SEEN ON THIS MORNINGS RAOBS AND
PROFILES IS ATOP THE AREA AND ASSOCIATED WAVE ACROSS IOWA IS
MOVING QUICKLY EAST. A 990 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR WATERLOO IS
CORRELATED WITH THIS AND HAS HELPED TO BETTER DEFINE A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH WHERE WINDS SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST AND RAPIDLY INCREASE. THE
ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT IS ITS STRONGEST IN THIS AREA AS WELL. THIS
TROUGH IS ALSO NEAR THE LEADING EDGE OF THE CLEARING LINE
FURTHERING MIXING AS IT ENTERS THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA THROUGH
NOON. THE HRRR WIND GUST FORECASTS DO SHOW THE AXIS OF 40 TO NEAR
50 MPH GUSTS COMING EAST NEAR THE INTERSTATE 39 CORRIDOR TOWARDS
WATSEKA AROUND NOON MOVING INTO CHICAGO BY 1 TO 3 PM. HAVE
EXPANDED WIND ADVISORY TO INCLUDE THE FAR NORTHWEST FORECAST AREA
AS ROCKFORD SOUNDINGS ON THE 12Z NAM SUPPORT WIND ADVISORY
SUSTAINED SPEEDS BEING REACHED SOON.
MTF
//PREV DISCUSSION...
327 AM CST
A VERY ACTIVE PROGRESSIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...THE MAIN
CONCERN WILL FOCUS ON WINDS. WITH A VERY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS OF 50-60KT RIGHT OFF THE
DECK...WINDS HAVE BEEN RATHER STRONG AND GUSTY THROUGH THE NIGHT.
EXPECT THE STRONG WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. WITH
SOME PARTIAL CLEARING EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...IT IS LIKELY THAT
WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 50 MPH MAY MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. SO...WILL
MAINTAIN THE WIND ADVISORY THAT IS IN PLACE FOR TODAY. THE ONE
PORTION OF THE CWA THAT MAY ESCAPE THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE THE
FAR NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...INCLUDING THE ROCKFORD AREA.
A SHORT WAVE TRACKING OVER SRN WISCONSIN TODAY SHOULD INDUCE A WEAK
SFC WAVE THAT WILL TRACK THROUGH NWRN IL AND SRN WISCONSIN. THIS
MAY INTRODUCE ENOUGH BAGGINESS TO THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT
WINDS MAY NOT GET QUITE AS STRONG THERE.
THE OTHER CONCERN FOR THE NEAR TERM FORECAST WILL BE THE CHANCES FOR
SOME SPRINKLES OF DRIZZLE FOR THE MORNING HOURS. THE LATEST SFC
ANALYSIS INDICATES A TONGUE OF ENHANCED MOISTURE FROM THE RED RIVER
VALLEY...THROUGH THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO
ILLINOIS...WITH SFC DEWPOINTS EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE UPPER 40S.
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...THE STRONG SLY-SSWLY FLOW SHOULD
CONTINUE TO ADVECT MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA WITH SFC
DEWPOINTS REACHING INTO THE LOWER 50S. THE SHORT WAVE TRACKING
ACROSS SRN WISCONSIN SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING TO GENERATE SOME
SHOWERS FOR THE NRN TIER COUNTIES. HOWEVER...WITH THE MOISTURE
CONFINED TO THE LOWER LEVELS...WITH RH TIME SECTIONS ONLY INDICATING
NEAR SATURATED CONDITIONS BELOW 6KFT...AND A LAYER OF DRY AIR
ABOVE...EXPECT ANY PCPN SOUTH OF THE NRN TIER COUNTIES TO BE EITHER
LIGHT SPRINKLES OR DRIZZLE. BY THIS AFTERNOON...THE SHORT WAVE
SHOULD PUSH OFF TO THE EAST AND AT LEAST PARTIALLY CLEARING SKIES
SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME SUNSHINE.
BY SUNSET...WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE AND FOCUS OF CONCERN WILL
SHIFT TO THE NEXT SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE REGION. THE MODELS ARE
ADVERTISING A SRN STREAM SHORT WAVE WILL DROP OUT OF THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES AND TRACK ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. THE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY
LIFT NEWD ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OVERNIGHT AND INTO
IL/IN BY MIDDAY MONDAY. PERSISTENT SWLY SFC FLOW WILL DRAW MORE
GULF MOISTURE TOWARD THE REGION. FAST SWLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE
UPPER TROUGH SHOULD SHEAR OUT THE SHORT WAVE...AND THE BEST FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM, WILL FOCUS FROM CNTRL IL TO NRN/CNTRL
INDIANA. THERE SHOULD BE ADEQUATE WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT TO BRING SOME PCPN TO MUCH OF THE CWA...BUT THE HEAVIEST PCPN
SHOULD BE OVER THE SERN PORTIONS...GENERALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF A
LINE FROM CHICAGO TO PONTIAC. THERE IS A REMOTE CHANCE FOR SOME
THUNDER WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT WITH THE BEST FORCING SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE CWA...WILL NOT CARRY ANY MENTION OF TS IN THE FORECAST.
THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN VERY PROGRESSIVE INTO MIDWEEK AND THE NEXT
SYSTEM OF CONCERN...A STRONG NRN STREAM SYSTEM WILL DROP ACROSS THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY EARLY
TUESDAY EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WILL DRAG A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA BRINGING A SHOT OF COLD AIR OUT OF CANADA. STRONG COLD
ADVECTION WILL SET UP FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH 850MB TEMPS
ON THE ORDER OF -8 TO -10C SPREADING ACROSS NRN IL/IN. BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
AMPLE SUNSHINE SHOULD ONLY PARTIALLY COUNTERACT THE COLD ADVECTION
AND TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL HAVE A HARD TIME REACTING...ONLY
REACHING INTO THE UPPER 30S OR LOWER 40S.
FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN RATHER QUIET THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE LOWER
50S BY FRIDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PCPN WILL COME FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE ACTUALLY RELATIVELY CONSISTENT ON
EJECTING SOME SRN STREAM ENERGY OUT OF THE CNTRL ROCKIES AND
DEVELOPING A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS TO THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AN OPEN GULF WOULD ALLOW FOR A DECENT RETURN
FLOW OF MOISTURE OVERRUNNING THE BOUNDARY...BRINGING CHANCES OF RAIN
FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
KREIN
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* WINDS TURNING SOUTHWEST BEHIND A COOL FRONT WITH GUSTS
INCREASING TO AROUND 40 KT WITH SOME BRIEF GUSTS TO AROUND 45 KT
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
* POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN ON MONDAY.
KJB
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
THE MAIN ISSUES BY FAR ARE THE SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. THE
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS LATE THIS MORNING SHOWS THE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ACROSS EAST CENTRAL IOWA.
SURFACE WINDS TO THE EAST OF THIS FEATURE HAVE REALLY JUMPED UP OVER
THE PAST FEW HOURS ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND NORTHWESTERN INDIANA
AS STRONG PRESSURE FALLS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE AN INCREASE IN
THE WINDS AT KORD AND KMDW HERE WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AS THE
SURFACE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS
AND STRONG PRESSURE RISES COMMENCE TO THE WEST. THEREFORE...WE ARE
STILL EXPECTING THE WINDS TO BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE
AROUND 25 TO 30 KT WITH GUSTS AROUND 40 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THESE WINDS WILL QUICKLY ABATE AROUND SUNSET.
ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS ON MONDAY. THIS LOOKS TO
BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS ON MONDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER...THE MAJORITY OF THE RAINFALL WILL REMAIN TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE TAF SITES.
KJB
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS TURNING SOUTHWESTERLY BEHIND A COOL
FRONT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THAT THERE WILL
BE SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 45 KT.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN RAIN CHANCES ON MONDAY.
KJB
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
MONDAY NIGHT...VFR.
TUESDAY...VFR WITH BREEZY WEST WINDS.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY...VFR WITH SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHRA FRIDAY
NIGHT.
SATURDAY...CHANCE SHRA.
MDB
&&
.MARINE...
217 PM CST
IT LOOKS LIKE AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BRING SEVERAL WIND
EVENTS ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. OUR CURRENT
GALE FORCE WINDS LOOK TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTH
HALF OF THE LAKE. HOWEVER...FARTHER NORTH THE WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED
BELOW GALE FORCE AND SHOULD REMAIN SUB GALE. THEREFORE...I HAVE
DECIDED TO END THE GALE WARNING EARLY FOR THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE LAKE.
THE WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE 10 TO 25 KT RANGE ACROSS THE
LAKE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...THERE ARE A FEW PERIODS WHERE
STRONGER WINDS NEAR GALE FORCE LOOK POSSIBLE. FIRST...A STRONG COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER LAKE MICHIGAN LATE TUESDAY...AND MORE
LIKELY EARLY TUESDAY EVENING. THIS LOOKS TO PRODUCE A PERIOD OF SOME
GALE FORCE WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS MUCH COLDER AIR
SPILLS OVER THE LAKE AND SETS UP SOME UNSTABLE CONDITIONS.
THEN LATER IN THE WEEK ANOTHER STRONG STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE COUNTY. THIS LOOKS TO SET UP
SOME STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
KJB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...WIND ADVISORY...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-ILZ011-
ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ022-ILZ023-
ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039 UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY.
IN...WIND ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011-INZ019 UNTIL 6 PM
SUNDAY.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-
LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-
LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 UNTIL 9 PM SUNDAY.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1153 AM CST SUN NOV 13 2011
.DISCUSSION...
1008 AM CST
THE CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL AND SHORT TERM MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE A VERY WINDY AFTERNOON...WITH SCATTERING OF THE CLOUDS
CURRENTLY OVER CHICAGOLAND. WIND GUSTS HAVE ALREADY BEEN OBSERVED
TO 45 MPH IN PONTIAC...48 MPH IN CHAMPAIGN-URBANA...AND EVEN UP
TO 55 MPH FURTHER SOUTH IN CENTRAL IL...WHICH IS IN THE UPSTREAM
FLOW. STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW SEEN ON THIS MORNINGS RAOBS AND
PROFILES IS ATOP THE AREA AND ASSOCIATED WAVE ACROSS IOWA IS
MOVING QUICKLY EAST. A 990 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR WATERLOO IS
CORRELATED WITH THIS AND HAS HELPED TO BETTER DEFINE A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH WHERE WINDS SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST AND RAPIDLY INCREASE. THE
ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT IS ITS STRONGEST IN THIS AREA AS WELL. THIS
TROUGH IS ALSO NEAR THE LEADING EDGE OF THE CLEARING LINE
FURTHERING MIXING AS IT ENTERS THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA THROUGH
NOON. THE HRRR WIND GUST FORECASTS DO SHOW THE AXIS OF 40 TO NEAR
50 MPH GUSTS COMING EAST NEAR THE INTERSTATE 39 CORRIDOR TOWARDS
WATSEKA AROUND NOON MOVING INTO CHICAGO BY 1 TO 3 PM. HAVE
EXPANDED WIND ADVISORY TO INCLUDE THE FAR NORTHWEST FORECAST AREA
AS ROCKFORD SOUNDINGS ON THE 12Z NAM SUPPORT WIND ADVISORY
SUSTAINED SPEEDS BEING REACHED SOON.
MTF
//PREV DISCUSSION...
327 AM CST
A VERY ACTIVE PROGRESSIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...THE MAIN
CONCERN WILL FOCUS ON WINDS. WITH A VERY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS OF 50-60KT RIGHT OFF THE
DECK...WINDS HAVE BEEN RATHER STRONG AND GUSTY THROUGH THE NIGHT.
EXPECT THE STRONG WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. WITH
SOME PARTIAL CLEARING EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...IT IS LIKELY THAT
WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 50 MPH MAY MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. SO...WILL
MAINTAIN THE WIND ADVISORY THAT IS IN PLACE FOR TODAY. THE ONE
PORTION OF THE CWA THAT MAY ESCAPE THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE THE
FAR NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...INCLUDING THE ROCKFORD AREA.
A SHORT WAVE TRACKING OVER SRN WISCONSIN TODAY SHOULD INDUCE A WEAK
SFC WAVE THAT WILL TRACK THROUGH NWRN IL AND SRN WISCONSIN. THIS
MAY INTRODUCE ENOUGH BAGGINESS TO THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT
WINDS MAY NOT GET QUITE AS STRONG THERE.
THE OTHER CONCERN FOR THE NEAR TERM FORECAST WILL BE THE CHANCES FOR
SOME SPRINKLES OF DRIZZLE FOR THE MORNING HOURS. THE LATEST SFC
ANALYSIS INDICATES A TONGUE OF ENHANCED MOISTURE FROM THE RED RIVER
VALLEY...THROUGH THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO
ILLINOIS...WITH SFC DEWPOINTS EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE UPPER 40S.
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...THE STRONG SLY-SSWLY FLOW SHOULD
CONTINUE TO ADVECT MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA WITH SFC
DEWPOINTS REACHING INTO THE LOWER 50S. THE SHORT WAVE TRACKING
ACROSS SRN WISCONSIN SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING TO GENERATE SOME
SHOWERS FOR THE NRN TIER COUNTIES. HOWEVER...WITH THE MOISTURE
CONFINED TO THE LOWER LEVELS...WITH RH TIME SECTIONS ONLY INDICATING
NEAR SATURATED CONDITIONS BELOW 6KFT...AND A LAYER OF DRY AIR
ABOVE...EXPECT ANY PCPN SOUTH OF THE NRN TIER COUNTIES TO BE EITHER
LIGHT SPRINKLES OR DRIZZLE. BY THIS AFTERNOON...THE SHORT WAVE
SHOULD PUSH OFF TO THE EAST AND AT LEAST PARTIALLY CLEARING SKIES
SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME SUNSHINE.
BY SUNSET...WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE AND FOCUS OF CONCERN WILL
SHIFT TO THE NEXT SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE REGION. THE MODELS ARE
ADVERTISING A SRN STREAM SHORT WAVE WILL DROP OUT OF THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES AND TRACK ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. THE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY
LIFT NEWD ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OVERNIGHT AND INTO
IL/IN BY MIDDAY MONDAY. PERSISTENT SWLY SFC FLOW WILL DRAW MORE
GULF MOISTURE TOWARD THE REGION. FAST SWLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE
UPPER TROUGH SHOULD SHEAR OUT THE SHORT WAVE...AND THE BEST FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM, WILL FOCUS FROM CNTRL IL TO NRN/CNTRL
INDIANA. THERE SHOULD BE ADEQUATE WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT TO BRING SOME PCPN TO MUCH OF THE CWA...BUT THE HEAVIEST PCPN
SHOULD BE OVER THE SERN PORTIONS...GENERALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF A
LINE FROM CHICAGO TO PONTIAC. THERE IS A REMOTE CHANCE FOR SOME
THUNDER WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT WITH THE BEST FORCING SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE CWA...WILL NOT CARRY ANY MENTION OF TS IN THE FORECAST.
THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN VERY PROGRESSIVE INTO MIDWEEK AND THE NEXT
SYSTEM OF CONCERN...A STRONG NRN STREAM SYSTEM WILL DROP ACROSS THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY EARLY
TUESDAY EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WILL DRAG A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA BRINGING A SHOT OF COLD AIR OUT OF CANADA. STRONG COLD
ADVECTION WILL SET UP FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH 850MB TEMPS
ON THE ORDER OF -8 TO -10C SPREADING ACROSS NRN IL/IN. BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
AMPLE SUNSHINE SHOULD ONLY PARTIALLY COUNTERACT THE COLD ADVECTION
AND TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL HAVE A HARD TIME REACTING...ONLY
REACHING INTO THE UPPER 30S OR LOWER 40S.
FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN RATHER QUIET THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE LOWER
50S BY FRIDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PCPN WILL COME FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE ACTUALLY RELATIVELY CONSISTENT ON
EJECTING SOME SRN STREAM ENERGY OUT OF THE CNTRL ROCKIES AND
DEVELOPING A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS TO THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AN OPEN GULF WOULD ALLOW FOR A DECENT RETURN
FLOW OF MOISTURE OVERRUNNING THE BOUNDARY...BRINGING CHANCES OF RAIN
FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
KREIN
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* WINDS TURNING SOUTHWEST BEHIND A COOL FRONT WITH GUSTS
INCREASING TO AROUND 40 KT WITH SOME BRIEF GUSTS TO AROUND 45 KT
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
* POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN ON MONDAY.
KJB
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
THE MAIN ISSUES BY FAR ARE THE SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. THE
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS LATE THIS MORNING SHOWS THE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ACROSS EAST CENTRAL IOWA.
SURFACE WINDS TO THE EAST OF THIS FEATURE HAVE REALLY JUMPED UP OVER
THE PAST FEW HOURS ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND NORTHWESTERN INDIANA
AS STRONG PRESSURE FALLS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE AN INCREASE IN
THE WINDS AT KORD AND KMDW HERE WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AS THE
SURFACE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS
AND STRONG PRESSURE RISES COMMENCE TO THE WEST. THEREFORE...WE ARE
STILL EXPECTING THE WINDS TO BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE
AROUND 25 TO 30 KT WITH GUSTS AROUND 40 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THESE WINDS WILL QUICKLY ABATE AROUND SUNSET.
ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS ON MONDAY. THIS LOOKS TO
BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS ON MONDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER...THE MAJORITY OF THE RAINFALL WILL REMAIN TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE TAF SITES.
KJB
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS TURNING SOUTHWESTERLY BEHIND A COOL
FRONT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THAT THERE WILL
BE SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 45 KT.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN RAIN CHANCES ON MONDAY.
KJB
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
MONDAY NIGHT...VFR.
TUESDAY...VFR WITH BREEZY WEST WINDS.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY...VFR WITH SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHRA FRIDAY
NIGHT.
SATURDAY...CHANCE SHRA.
MDB
&&
.MARINE...
305 AM CST
LITTLE CHANGE TO OVERALL FORECAST FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH DEEP
LOW PRESSURE SPINNING FROM SOUTHEAST MANITOBA INTO WESTERN ONTARIO
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE SITS OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. A COMBINATION
OF A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET JUST ABOVE
THE SURFACE HAS RESULTED IN SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS NEAR OR JUST OVER
GALE FORCE ACROSS THE LAKE EARLY THIS MORNING. THE LOW WILL DEEPEN
AND CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS HUDSON BAY TONIGHT AND
MONDAY. A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LAKE TODAY BRINGING IN A
PERIOD OF COOL ADVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. STILL
EXPECT GALES TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE LAKE AND PICK UP ACROSS THE
SOUTH HALF OF THE LAKE TODAY BEFORE SETTLING DOWN THIS EVENING. WILL
CONTINUE WITH 35 KT MENTION NORTH WITH GALES INCREASING TO 45 KT ON
THE SOUTH HALF OF THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON. THERE APPEARS TO BE A
SHORT SEVERAL HOUR WINDOW WHERE GUSTS COULD REACH 50 KT AS THE COLD
FRONT PASSES MIDDAY OR SO BUT THIS LOOKS TO BE INFREQUENT IF IT CAN
OCCUR. STABILITY MAY BE ABLE TO MITIGATE SOME OF THE MAXIMUM GUSTS
BUT LOW LEVEL WINDS OF 40 KT ARE PRESENT STARTING AROUND 500 FT SO
40-45 KT GUSTS SHOULD STILL OCCUR. THE ISOLATED STORM FORCE GUSTS
MAY BE MORE LIKELY...ALBEIT STILL A LOW CHANCE...CLOSER TO THE
INDIANA AND ILLINOIS SHORES AS MIXING SHOULD BE OF GREATER DEPTH AS
AIRMASS ADVECTS OFF OF LAND.
WINDS WILL DROP BELOW GALE FORCE SOMETIME THIS EVENING BUT SPEEDS
WILL STAY ELEVATED WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK
TROUGH CROSSES THE AREA. ANOTHER LOW WILL THEN TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS
THE AREA TUESDAY LEADING TO ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE FOR AT LEAST LOW END
GALES TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
IN WEDNESDAY BUT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS RATHER TIGHT SO WINDS
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED UNTIL SOMETIME THURSDAY. A SERIES OF LOWS WILL
CROSS THE LAKE INTO THE WEEKEND BRINGING PERIODIC INCREASES IN WINDS
AND WAVES AND SOME POSSIBILITY FOR AT LEAST LOW END GALES.
MDB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...WIND ADVISORY...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-ILZ011-
ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ022-ILZ023-
ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039 UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY.
IN...WIND ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011-INZ019 UNTIL 6 PM
SUNDAY.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-
LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-
LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 UNTIL 9 PM SUNDAY.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1024 AM CST SUN NOV 13 2011
.DISCUSSION...
1008 AM CST
THE CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL AND SHORT TERM MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE A VERY WINDY AFTERNOON...WITH SCATTERING OF THE CLOUDS
CURRENTLY OVER CHICAGOLAND. WIND GUSTS HAVE ALREADY BEEN OBSERVED
TO 45 MPH IN PONTIAC...48 MPH IN CHAMPAIGN-URBANA...AND EVEN UP
TO 55 MPH FURTHER SOUTH IN CENTRAL IL...WHICH IS IN THE UPSTREAM
FLOW. STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW SEEN ON THIS MORNINGS RAOBS AND
PROFILES IS ATOP THE AREA AND ASSOCIATED WAVE ACROSS IOWA IS
MOVING QUICKLY EAST. A 990 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR WATERLOO IS
CORRELATED WITH THIS AND HAS HELPED TO BETTER DEFINE A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH WHERE WINDS SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST AND RAPIDLY INCREASE. THE
ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT IS ITS STRONGEST IN THIS AREA AS WELL. THIS
TROUGH IS ALSO NEAR THE LEADING EDGE OF THE CLEARING LINE
FURTHERING MIXING AS IT ENTERS THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA THROUGH
NOON. THE HRRR WIND GUST FORECASTS DO SHOW THE AXIS OF 40 TO NEAR
50 MPH GUSTS COMING EAST NEAR THE INTERSTATE 39 CORRIDOR TOWARDS
WATSEKA AROUND NOON MOVING INTO CHICAGO BY 1 TO 3 PM. HAVE
EXPANDED WIND ADVISORY TO INCLUDE THE FAR NORTHWEST FORECAST AREA
AS ROCKFORD SOUNDINGS ON THE 12Z NAM SUPPORT WIND ADVISORY
SUSTAINED SPEEDS BEING REACHED SOON.
MTF
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
327 AM CST
A VERY ACTIVE PROGRESSIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...THE MAIN
CONCERN WILL FOCUS ON WINDS. WITH A VERY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS OF 50-60KT RIGHT OFF THE
DECK...WINDS HAVE BEEN RATHER STRONG AND GUSTY THROUGH THE NIGHT.
EXPECT THE STRONG WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. WITH
SOME PARTIAL CLEARING EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...IT IS LIKELY THAT
WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 50 MPH MAY MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. SO...WILL
MAINTAIN THE WIND ADVISORY THAT IS IN PLACE FOR TODAY. THE ONE
PORTION OF THE CWA THAT MAY ESCAPE THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE THE
FAR NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...INCLUDING THE ROCKFORD AREA.
A SHORT WAVE TRACKING OVER SRN WISCONSIN TODAY SHOULD INDUCE A WEAK
SFC WAVE THAT WILL TRACK THROUGH NWRN IL AND SRN WISCONSIN. THIS
MAY INTRODUCE ENOUGH BAGGINESS TO THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT
WINDS MAY NOT GET QUITE AS STRONG THERE.
THE OTHER CONCERN FOR THE NEAR TERM FORECAST WILL BE THE CHANCES FOR
SOME SPRINKLES OF DRIZZLE FOR THE MORNING HOURS. THE LATEST SFC
ANALYSIS INDICATES A TONGUE OF ENHANCED MOISTURE FROM THE RED RIVER
VALLEY...THROUGH THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO
ILLINOIS...WITH SFC DEWPOINTS EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE UPPER 40S.
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...THE STRONG SLY-SSWLY FLOW SHOULD
CONTINUE TO ADVECT MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA WITH SFC
DEWPOINTS REACHING INTO THE LOWER 50S. THE SHORT WAVE TRACKING
ACROSS SRN WISCONSIN SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING TO GENERATE SOME
SHOWERS FOR THE NRN TIER COUNTIES. HOWEVER...WITH THE MOISTURE
CONFINED TO THE LOWER LEVELS...WITH RH TIME SECTIONS ONLY INDICATING
NEAR SATURATED CONDITIONS BELOW 6KFT...AND A LAYER OF DRY AIR
ABOVE...EXPECT ANY PCPN SOUTH OF THE NRN TIER COUNTIES TO BE EITHER
LIGHT SPRINKLES OR DRIZZLE. BY THIS AFTERNOON...THE SHORT WAVE
SHOULD PUSH OFF TO THE EAST AND AT LEAST PARTIALLY CLEARING SKIES
SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME SUNSHINE.
BY SUNSET...WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE AND FOCUS OF CONCERN WILL
SHIFT TO THE NEXT SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE REGION. THE MODELS ARE
ADVERTISING A SRN STREAM SHORT WAVE WILL DROP OUT OF THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES AND TRACK ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. THE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY
LIFT NEWD ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OVERNIGHT AND INTO
IL/IN BY MIDDAY MONDAY. PERSISTENT SWLY SFC FLOW WILL DRAW MORE
GULF MOISTURE TOWARD THE REGION. FAST SWLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE
UPPER TROUGH SHOULD SHEAR OUT THE SHORT WAVE...AND THE BEST FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM, WILL FOCUS FROM CNTRL IL TO NRN/CNTRL
INDIANA. THERE SHOULD BE ADEQUATE WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT TO BRING SOME PCPN TO MUCH OF THE CWA...BUT THE HEAVIEST PCPN
SHOULD BE OVER THE SERN PORTIONS...GENERALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF A
LINE FROM CHICAGO TO PONTIAC. THERE IS A REMOTE CHANCE FOR SOME
THUNDER WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT WITH THE BEST FORCING SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE CWA...WILL NOT CARRY ANY MENTION OF TS IN THE FORECAST.
THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN VERY PROGRESSIVE INTO MIDWEEK AND THE NEXT
SYSTEM OF CONCERN...A STRONG NRN STREAM SYSTEM WILL DROP ACROSS THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY EARLY
TUESDAY EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WILL DRAG A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA BRINGING A SHOT OF COLD AIR OUT OF CANADA. STRONG COLD
ADVECTION WILL SET UP FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH 850MB TEMPS
ON THE ORDER OF -8 TO -10C SPREADING ACROSS NRN IL/IN. BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
AMPLE SUNSHINE SHOULD ONLY PARTIALLY COUNTERACT THE COLD ADVECTION
AND TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL HAVE A HARD TIME REACTING...ONLY
REACHING INTO THE UPPER 30S OR LOWER 40S.
FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN RATHER QUIET THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE LOWER
50S BY FRIDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PCPN WILL COME FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE ACTUALLY RELATIVELY CONSISTENT ON
EJECTING SOME SRN STREAM ENERGY OUT OF THE CNTRL ROCKIES AND
DEVELOPING A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS TO THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AN OPEN GULF WOULD ALLOW FOR A DECENT RETURN
FLOW OF MOISTURE OVERRUNNING THE BOUNDARY...BRINGING CHANCES OF RAIN
FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
KREIN
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 14Z...
* SOUTH WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 30 KT THROUGH THE MORNING.
* WINDS TURNING SOUTHWEST BEHIND A COOL FRONT WITH GUSTS
INCREASING TO AROUND 40 KT WITH SOME BRIEF GUSTS TO AROUND 45 KT
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
* MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING EXITING TO THE EAST AROUND MIDDAY.
MDB/KJB
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH STILL TO THE WEST OF THE TERMINALS ACROSS
CENTRAL IOWA WITH THE MAIN SURFACE LOW ACROSS WESTERN ONTARIO.
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT WITH WINDS INCREASING TO
AROUND 50 KT IN THE FIRST 2000 FT OF THE ATMOSPHERE. SURFACE WIND
GUSTS HAVE SUBSIDED SOMEWHAT LIKELY DUE TO STRENGTHENED LOW LEVEL
INVERSION BUT SPEEDS WILL BE INCREASING THIS MORNING AND
ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH CIRRUS NOW STREAMING OVERHEAD WITH
SCT-BKN PATCHES OF LOWER END VFR CLOUD COVER LINGERING AS WELL.
THERE IS STILL SUPPORT FOR NEW MVFR/VFR CIG DEVELOPMENT AS THE LOW
PRESSURE MOVES CLOSER THIS MORNING BUT HAVE SEEN MINIMAL EVIDENCE
SHOWING THIS HAS BEGUN. WILL CONTINUE WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS
THIS MORNING THOUGH THIS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED. SOME GUIDANCE
ALSO SHOWS IFR DEVELOPMENT BUT AM HAVING A TOUGH TIME FINDING MUCH
SUPPORT FOR THIS.
WINDS ARE THE NEXT CONCERN. WITH VERY STRONG WINDS JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE GUSTS SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE AFTER DAYBREAK THANKS TO
INCREASED MIXING BUT NEW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT MAY ACT TO SUPPRESS THE
GUSTS SOMEWHAT. WILL CONTINUE WITH IDEA OF 25 TO 30 KT GUSTS THIS
MORNING THOUGH THESE WOULD NEED TO BE INCREASED IF LOWER CLOUD
COVER DOES NOT MATERIALIZE. THE SURFACE TROUGH/FRONT WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE AREA AROUND MIDDAY TURNING WINDS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AND
SCOURING OUT ANY LOW CLOUD COVER. WITH COOL AIR MOVING IN ABOVE
THE SURFACE AND CLEARING SKIES WIND GUSTS SHOULD INCREASE
MARKEDLY THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT THE CHICAGO/NW INDIANA
TERMINALS. WILL GO WITH PREVAILING GUSTS OF 40 KT AT ORD AND MDW
THOUGH THERE IS SOME CHANCE FOR BRIEF GUSTS AROUND 45 KT ALONG AND
BEHIND THE FRONT. GUSTS AT RFD SHOULD BE IN THE 35 KT RANGE THANKS
TO A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING
AND BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT WITH VFR EXPECTED.
MDB
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 14Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SOUTH WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 30 KT THROUGH
THE MORNING.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS TURNING SOUTHWESTERLY BEHIND A COOL
FRONT AROUND MIDDAY WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THAT
THERE WILL BE SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 45 KT.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS IMPROVING THIS AFTERNOON.
MDB/KJB
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
MONDAY NIGHT...VFR.
TUESDAY...VFR WITH BREEZY WEST WINDS.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY...VFR WITH SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHRA FRIDAY
NIGHT.
SATURDAY...CHANCE SHRA.
MDB
&&
.MARINE...
305 AM CST
LITTLE CHANGE TO OVERALL FORECAST FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH DEEP
LOW PRESSURE SPINNING FROM SOUTHEAST MANITOBA INTO WESTERN ONTARIO
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE SITS OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. A COMBINATION
OF A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET JUST ABOVE
THE SURFACE HAS RESULTED IN SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS NEAR OR JUST OVER
GALE FORCE ACROSS THE LAKE EARLY THIS MORNING. THE LOW WILL DEEPEN
AND CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS HUDSON BAY TONIGHT AND
MONDAY. A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LAKE TODAY BRINGING IN A
PERIOD OF COOL ADVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. STILL
EXPECT GALES TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE LAKE AND PICK UP ACROSS THE
SOUTH HALF OF THE LAKE TODAY BEFORE SETTLING DOWN THIS EVENING. WILL
CONTINUE WITH 35 KT MENTION NORTH WITH GALES INCREASING TO 45 KT ON
THE SOUTH HALF OF THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON. THERE APPEARS TO BE A
SHORT SEVERAL HOUR WINDOW WHERE GUSTS COULD REACH 50 KT AS THE COLD
FRONT PASSES MIDDAY OR SO BUT THIS LOOKS TO BE INFREQUENT IF IT CAN
OCCUR. STABILITY MAY BE ABLE TO MITIGATE SOME OF THE MAXIMUM GUSTS
BUT LOW LEVEL WINDS OF 40 KT ARE PRESENT STARTING AROUND 500 FT SO
40-45 KT GUSTS SHOULD STILL OCCUR. THE ISOLATED STORM FORCE GUSTS
MAY BE MORE LIKELY...ALBEIT STILL A LOW CHANCE...CLOSER TO THE
INDIANA AND ILLINOIS SHORES AS MIXING SHOULD BE OF GREATER DEPTH AS
AIRMASS ADVECTS OFF OF LAND.
WINDS WILL DROP BELOW GALE FORCE SOMETIME THIS EVENING BUT SPEEDS
WILL STAY ELEVATED WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK
TROUGH CROSSES THE AREA. ANOTHER LOW WILL THEN TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS
THE AREA TUESDAY LEADING TO ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE FOR AT LEAST LOW END
GALES TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
IN WEDNESDAY BUT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS RATHER TIGHT SO WINDS
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED UNTIL SOMETIME THURSDAY. A SERIES OF LOWS WILL
CROSS THE LAKE INTO THE WEEKEND BRINGING PERIODIC INCREASES IN WINDS
AND WAVES AND SOME POSSIBILITY FOR AT LEAST LOW END GALES.
MDB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...WIND ADVISORY...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-ILZ011-
ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ022-ILZ023-
ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039 UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY.
IN...WIND ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011-INZ019 UNTIL 6 PM
SUNDAY.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-
LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-
LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 UNTIL 9 PM SUNDAY.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
1221 AM EST SUN NOV 13 2011
.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND
THEN MOVE EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURE GRIDS.
SHORTWAVE TROUGH JUST WEST OF THEREGION THIS AFTERNOON WILL CROSS
THE STATE BY EARLY THIS EVENING. SAT IMG INDICATES OVERCAST SKIES
ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS WITH A MIX OF SUN AND
CLOUDS ACROSS DOWNEAST THIS AFTERNOON. RH PROGS INDICATE CLOUDS TO
REMAIN ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING THEN GRADUALLY CLEARING THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT
WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGE. CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE ACROSS DOWNEAST BY
EARLY THIS EVENING. RADAR INDICATING SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
SECTIONS. HRRR AND RUC MODELS INDICATE THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE
UNTIL UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE REGION EARLY THIS EVENING.
UPPER RIDGE CRESTS THE STATE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND THEN MOVES
EAST OF THE REGION BY NOONTIME. SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW WARM AIR ADVECTION TO OCCUR ACROSS THE STATE
WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE
NORTH AND THE 50S ACROSS DOWNEAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS A
SERIES OF WAVES MOVES THROUGH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE FIRST WILL
COME SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. IT WILL BE
ENOUGH TO FIRE UP SOME SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE NEXT GOOD CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVES
MONDAY NIGHT WITH YET ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE TO TRAVERSE ACROSS THE
REGION. BRIEF RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND IN ITS
WAKE...SO EXPECT THERE WILL BE A BRIEF DRY SPELL TUESDAY BEFORE A
STRONGER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. RAIN FROM THIS FINAL WAVE
WILL SPREAD INTO MAINLY SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE UPSIDE OF ALL THESE SHORTWAVES WILL BE MILD
TEMPERATURES AS THEY LOOK TO STAY FAR ENOUGH NORTH THAT WE WILL STAY
OUT OF THE COLD AIR. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 50 NORTH
TO THE UPPER 50S DOWNEAST...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S DUE TO
CLOUD COVER.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RAIN SHOULD BE SPREADING NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ALONG THE COAST OF MAINE. THERE ARE
STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE GFS AND ECMWF IN THIS TIME FRAME.
THE GFS WANTS TO BRING THE LOW THROUGH ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...ON THE OTHER HAND IT SEEMS AS IF THE ECMWF IS ABOUT 18
TO 24 HOURS SLOWER. WILL LEAN WITH GFS WITH THIS PACKAGE. RAIN
SHOULD END LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE THEN MOVES IN FOR
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING BEFORE A WEAK SYSTEM PASSES OFF TO
THE NORTH BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP. TEMPERATURES AFTER
THE STORM WEDNESDAY WILL RETURN TO NORMAL NOVEMBER AVERAGES
THROUGH SATURDAY. USED A BLEND OF GMOS AND GFS FOR THE PERIOD AND
ADJUSTED AS NEEDED.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. FLURRIES POSSIBLE
ACROSS NORTHERN TERMINALS INTO EARLY THIS EVENING BUT SHOULD NOT
RESTRICT VSBY.
SHORT TERM: VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SCA WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS THIS
EVENING AND THEN EXPECT WINDS TO DROP BELOW SCA CRITERIA AFTER
MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER, SEAS ABOVE 5 FEET DUE TO SWELL WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT SO WILL KEEP SCA GOING FOR THE ENTIRE NIGHT.
SHORT TERM: SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KT ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SKIRTS BY TO THE NORTH OF THE
WATERS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED...FOR WAVES
AS WELL AS WINDS. CONDITIONS WILL SUBSIDE MONDAY NIGHT BUT WILL
INCREASE TO CLOSE TO SCA CRITERIA AGAIN TUESDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...MIGNONE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
953 PM EST MON NOV 14 2011
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND STALL AS WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG IT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL ENTER THE AREA LATER WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
03Z ENHANCED SHORT TERM FORECAST UPDATE HAS BEEN ISSUED TO CANCEL THE
TORNADO WATCH AND TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS IN TIMING
WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE WEAKENING QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM
(QLCS) CROSSING THE AREA.
THE LATEST RUC MID-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW WITH A SATURATED LAYER ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. AT THE
SURFACE, A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 985MB LOW ON THE SOUTHERN
EDGE OF THE HUDSON BAY SOUTHWARD TO ERIE, PA AND THEN
SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS OHIO AND INTO SOUTHERN INDIANA. A DECAYING
QLCS IS LOCATED AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM
INDIANA SOUTHWEST TO THE PITTSBURGH METRO TO ZANESVILLE. AHEAD OF
CONVECTION, A WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS ALLOWED FOR TEMPERATURES TO
REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS SOUTHWEST PA, NORTH-
CENTRAL WV, AND WESTERN MD. IN ADDITION, A TIGHTENED PRESSURE
GRADIENT HAS LED TO WINDS GUSTING AT 25 TO 30 MPH THIS EVENING AND
GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH WITHIN THE LINE OF SHOWERS.
PORTIONS OF EASTERN OHIO, SOUTHWEST PA, AND NORTH-CENTRAL WV
REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE QLCS. THE
ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE LINE INDICATES STRONG SHEAR (0-1KM BULK
SHEAR 30-40KTS AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR 70KTS) AND LITTLE OR NO
INSTABILITY (MU CAPE LESS THAN 500 J/KG) FOR THESE AREAS. WITH
THIS IN MIND BELIEVE THE SEVERE THREAT HAS DIMINISHED WITH THE
LOSS OF HEATING AND GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE LINE SHOULD REMAIN
MOSTLY SUB-SEVERE FOR THE REMAINING OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
TONIGHT...THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS OF
THE CWA OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE LOCATION
WHERE IT STALLS OUT. RIGHT NOW...EXPECT PROGRESSION TO THE MASON
DIXON LINE BEFORE STOPPING. AFTER 06Z, CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
DIMINISHES WITH MOSTLY JUST PERSISTENT RAIN SHOWERS FROM REMNANT
CONVECTION CROSSING THE AREA ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TEMPS
OVERNIGHT HAVE BEEN WARMED A FEW DEGREES WITH SLOWER PROGRESSION
OF THE FRONT, AND FORECAST LOWS ARE CLOSER TO THE WARMER LAMP
GUIDANCE. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S IN NORTH-CENTRAL WV
TO THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE I-80 CORRIDOR.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY, WITH MID-
LEVEL VORT ENERGY PUSHING ALONG THE BOUNDARY THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ONGOING SHOWERS WITH THE MORE PERSISTENT
PRECIPITATION FOCUSED SOUTHEAST OF PITTSBURGH AND SHOWERS POPS
DIMINISHING TO CHANCE NORTHWEST OF THE METRO. DESPITE THE FRONT
INITIALLY PUSHING SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA, STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
WILL BE LAGGING WELL BEHIND THIS FEATURE AND THUS TEMPS WILL BE
AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
ALTHOUGH COLD FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED SOUTH OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY
EVENING...THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT AND DRIFT NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. IT IS LIKELY THAT THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL OCCUR
DURING THIS 24 HOUR PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A STRONG GRADIENT IN
RAINFALL TOTALS...WITH LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH EXPECTED NORTH OF
I-80...AROUND HALF AN INCH IN PITTSBURGH...AND 1-2 INCHES SOUTH OF
THE MASON-DIXON LINE. WITH RECENT DRY WEATHER...THERE COULD BE
SOME LOCAL AREAS THAT SEE SOME HIGH WATER...BUT DO NOT EXPECT A
WIDESPREAD EVENT AT THIS TIME. A SECOND WAVE OF COLD AIR WILL
ARRIVE WEDNESDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END WEDNESDAY
EVENING...AND COULD FINISH AS SOME SNOW SHOWERS IN THE RIDGES.
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF WESTERLY WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...SOME LAKE EFFECT/UPSLOPE SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE DURING
THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER...NAM/GFS ARE INDICATING THAT FAVORABLE WIND
DIRECTION MAY NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER DEEPEST MOISTURE HAS PASSED.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY...WITH MOST
LOCATIONS STRUGGLING TO REACH 40 DEGREES.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST...MOVING OFF THE EAST
COAST BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS FRIDAY
AND MOST OF SATURDAY. ON SATURDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
ACROSS WISCONSIN INTO ONTARIO. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MODELS HAVE
BEEN FLIP-FLOPPING ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...WITH LATEST MODELS
SHOWING A SLIGHTLY QUICKER SOLUTION. WILL KEEP SLOWER TIMING IN THE
FORECAST UNTIL CONSECUTIVE MODEL RUNS SHOW THE QUICKER SOLUTION.
STILL SOME SIGNS THAT THE FRONT MAY STALL ALONG THE MASON-DIXON LINE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
ON FRIDAY...A MODERATING TREND WILL BRING NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND AND MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL A LINE OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS CROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE TIME FRAME WITH
THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OF SEEING RW/TRW WOULD BE BETWEEN 0Z AND
6Z. BRIEF IFR RESTRICTIONS IN VIS AND CIGS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A
HEAVIER STORM...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR TAF
INCLUSION. CIGS AND VIS SHOULD BE MVFR DURING THE OVERNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE RETURNING TO VFR AREAWIDE BY 15Z OR SO.
WHERE THE TAFS COULD GO WRONG:
- IFR CIGS COULD DEVELOP AT FKL AND DUJ OVERNIGHT AND LINGER INTO
THE MID MRNG HOURS.
OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
IFR RESTRICTIONS COULD OCCUR WITH A SURFACE FRONT STALLING OVER
THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...NO WIDESPREAD IFR IS
PREDICTED.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD WARMTH WAS REACHED AT THE FOLLOWING SITES:
SITE: RECORD / PREVIOUS HIGH AND YEAR
ZZV 71T / 71 - 1956
HLG 71 / 65 - 2008
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
654 PM EST MON NOV 14 2011
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND STALL AS WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG IT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL ENTER THE AREA LATER WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
00Z ENHANCED SHORT TERM FORECAST UPDATE HAS BEEN ISSUED TO SLOW
THE TIMING OF THE QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM (QLCS) AND TO
WARM TEMPS IN ADVANCE OF CONVECTION AS A COLD FRONT SLIDES
EASTWARD TOWARD THE AREA.
THE LATEST RUC MID-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW WITH A SATURATED LAYER SLIDING INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. AT
THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 985MB LOW ON THE SOUTHERN
EDGE OF THE HUDSON BAY SOUTHWARD TO ERIE, PA AND THEN
SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO AND INTO CENTRAL INDIANA. A
TRIPLE-POINT IS LOCATED NEAR ERIE, PA, WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING
EAST OF THE FEATURE INTO CENTRAL PA. A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT
HAS LED TO WINDS GUSTING AT 25 TO 30 KTS THIS EVENING.
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR THIS EVENING
AHEAD OF A QLCS THAT IS CROSSING NORTHERN OHIO. THERE HAVE BEEN
EMBEDDED BOWING FEATURES AND ROTATION ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO IN THIS
LINE OF CONVECTION. THE PRE-STORM ENVIRONMENT INDICATES STRONG
SHEAR (0-1KM BULK SHEAR 30-40KTS AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR 70KTS) AND
WEAK INSTABILITY (MU CAPE LESS THAN 500 J/KG) FOR AREAS OF
NORTHWEST OF PITTSBURGH. WITH THIS IN MIND BELIEVE THERE IS A
LIMITED THREAT DAMAGING WIND AS THIS LINE MOVES INTO THE I-80
CORRIDOR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED EMBEDDED TORNADO AND THUS TORNADO WATCH 880 IS STILL IN
EFFECT NORTHWEST OF PITTSBURGH. ONE THING TO KEEP IN MIND IS THAT
DESPITE AN ENVIRONMENT CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS ALONG
THE QLCS, THERE HAVE NOT BEEN ANY REPORTS OF DAMAGE WITH GUSTS
THAT HAVE BEEN SUB-SEVERE UPSTREAM IN NORTHEAST OHIO AT THIS POINT.
TONIGHT...THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS OF
THE CWA OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE LOCATION
WHERE IT STALLS OUT. RIGHT NOW...EXPECT PROGRESSION TO THE MASON
DIXON LINE BEFORE STOPPING. SEVERE THREAT WILL DECREASE AS THE
QLCS PUSHES INTO THE PITTSBURGH METRO, ALTHOUGH SOME SUB-SEVERE
GUSTS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THUNDERSTORMS AS THEY REACH THE
AREA. AFTER 06Z, CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISHES WITH MOSTLY
JUST PERSISTENT RAIN SHOWERS FROM REMNANT CONVECTION CROSSING THE
AREA ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ACROSS THE I-80 CORRIDOR...THE
WET WEATHER WILL BEGIN TO WRAP UP NEAR DAWN WITH THE EXODUS OF DEEPER
MOISTURE. TEMPS OVERNIGHT HAVE BEEN WARMED A FEW DEGREES WITH
SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT, AND FORECAST LOWS ARE CLOSER TO
THE WARMER LAMP GUIDANCE. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S IN
NORTH- CENTRAL WV TO THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE I-80 CORRIDOR.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY, WITH MID-
LEVEL VORT ENERGY PUSHING ALONG THE BOUNDARY THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ONGOING SHOWERS WITH THE MORE PERSISTENT
PRECIPITATION FOCUSED SOUTHEAST OF PITTSBURGH AND SHOWERS POPS
DIMINISHING TO CHANCE NORTHWEST OF THE METRO. DESPITE THE FRONT
INITIALLY PUSHING SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA, STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
WILL BE LAGGING WELL BEHIND THIS FEATURE AND THUS TEMPS WILL BE
AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
ALTHOUGH COLD FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED SOUTH OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY
EVENING...THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT AND DRIFT NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. IT IS LIKELY THAT THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL OCCUR
DURING THIS 24 HOUR PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A STRONG GRADIENT IN
RAINFALL TOTALS...WITH LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH EXPECTED NORTH OF
I-80...AROUND HALF AN INCH IN PITTSBURGH...AND 1-2 INCHES SOUTH OF
THE MASON-DIXON LINE. WITH RECENT DRY WEATHER...THERE COULD BE
SOME LOCAL AREAS THAT SEE SOME HIGH WATER...BUT DO NOT EXPECT A
WIDESPREAD EVENT AT THIS TIME. A SECOND WAVE OF COLD AIR WILL
ARRIVE WEDNESDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END WEDNESDAY
EVENING...AND COULD FINISH AS SOME SNOW SHOWERS IN THE RIDGES.
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF WESTERLY WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...SOME LAKE EFFECT/UPSLOPE SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE DURING
THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER...NAM/GFS ARE INDICATING THAT FAVORABLE WIND
DIRECTION MAY NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER DEEPEST MOISTURE HAS PASSED.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY...WITH MOST
LOCATIONS STRUGGLING TO REACH 40 DEGREES.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST...MOVING OFF THE EAST
COAST BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS FRIDAY
AND MOST OF SATURDAY. ON SATURDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
ACROSS WISCONSIN INTO ONTARIO. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MODELS HAVE
BEEN FLIP-FLOPPING ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...WITH LATEST MODELS
SHOWING A SLIGHTLY QUICKER SOLUTION. WILL KEEP SLOWER TIMING IN THE
FORECAST UNTIL CONSECUTIVE MODEL RUNS SHOW THE QUICKER SOLUTION.
STILL SOME SIGNS THAT THE FRONT MAY STALL ALONG THE MASON-DIXON LINE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
ON FRIDAY...A MODERATING TREND WILL BRING NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND AND MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL A LINE OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS CROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE TIME FRAME WITH
THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OF SEEING RW/TRW WOULD BE BETWEEN 0Z AND
6Z. BRIEF IFR RESTRICTIONS IN VIS AND CIGS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A
HEAVIER STORM...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR TAF
INCLUSION. CIGS AND VIS SHOULD BE MVFR DURING THE OVERNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE RETURNING TO VFR AREAWIDE BY 15Z OR SO.
WHERE THE TAFS COULD GO WRONG:
- IFR CIGS COULD DEVELOP AT FKL AND DUJ OVERNIGHT AND LINGER INTO
THE MID MRNG HOURS.
OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
IFR RESTRICTIONS COULD OCCUR WITH A SURFACE FRONT STALLING OVER
THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...NO WIDESPREAD IFR IS
PREDICTED.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD WARMTH WAS REACHED AT THE FOLLOWING SITES:
SITE: RECORD / PREVIOUS HIGH AND YEAR
ZZV 71T / 71 - 1956
HLG 71 / 65 - 2008
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
824 AM EST SUN NOV 13 2011
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOWLY EASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY WITH WINDY MILD CONDITIONS TODAY, THEN SHOWERS LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY CHILLY CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
RECENT NAM MODEL OUTPUT AND 12Z UPPER AIR DATA SUPPORT THE IDEA OF
DRY, MILD CONDITIONS ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY WINDS TODAY. FORECASTED
A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AGAIN TODAY, WHICH WILL PROMOTE THE
VERTICAL MIXING TO TAP THE FAST WINDS ALOFT TO CAUSE THE GUSTY
WINDS. NAM MODEL PROFILES SUGGEST GUSTS CAN REACH 35 TO 40 MPH.
AFTERNOON HIGHS CAN BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL, AS
SUGGESTED BY BLEND OF RECENT GFS AND NAM MOS AND HRRR MODEL
OUTPUT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PER BLEND OF RECENT SREF MODEL OUTPUT, CONTINUE TO EXPECT THE
FIRST SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE INCOMING COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM TO
BEGIN SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY EARLY
TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS LATE TONIGHT.
CONTINUED SOUTHWEST WINDS, IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT, WILL SUPPORT WARM
OVERNIGHT LOWS...APPROXIMATELY 15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE...AGAIN
FORECAST USING A GUIDANCE BLEND.
LIKELY PRECIP PROBABILITIES WERE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ARE PROJECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE UPPER OHIO REGION. USING A
CONSERVATIVE APPROACH TO RAINFALL RATES DUE TO PROGRESSIVE NATURE
OF THOSE DISTURBANCES...QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECASTS WERE
LIMITED TO JUST OVER AN INCH FOR THE PERIOD AT THIS JUNCTURE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PER BLEND OF RECENT NAEFS AND ECMWF MODEL OUTPUT, EXPECT SHOWER
BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM TO BE EXITING PAST THE
MOUNTAINS ON WEDNESDAY.
COLD POST-SYSTEM WESTERLY FLOW WILL PROVIDE COLDER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, AND MAY MAINTAIN CLOUDS AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE I-80 CORRIDOR AND MOUNTAINS.
AS TENNESSEE VALLEY HIGH PRESSURE EXITS EAST, LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL
TURN SOUTHWEST TO PROVIDE A DRY WARM UP FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, PER
BLEND OF RECENT GFS MOS AND NAEFS MEDIAN VALUES.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TODAY`S MAIN CONCERN WILL BE SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 40 TO 50 KTS AT 2
KFT AGL AND HIGHER, THAT CAN RESULT IN LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR THIS
MORNING UNTIL THE SURFACE INVERSION MIXES OUT, AT WHICH TIME THESE
FAST WINDS CAN CAUSE GUSTS OF 30 KTS, PER RECENT NAM MODEL PROFILES.
REGARDING CLOUDS, EXPECT VFR TODAY WITH NO LOWER THAN ALTOCUMULUS
CLOUDS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. FIRST PREFRONTAL SHOWERS EARLY
TONIGHT CAN CAUSE STRATOCUMULUS CEILINGS BUT THESE WILL BE STILL
BE MAINLY VFR.
OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
BANDS OF SHOWERS, ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONTAL
SYSTEM, WILL PROVIDE PERIODS OF RESTRICTIONS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT AREA WIDE, AND POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE NORTH AND
MOUNTAINS.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
102 PM EST SUN NOV 13 2011
LATEST UPDATE...AVIATION...
.SYNOPSIS...(400 AM EST SUN NOV 13 2011)
LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL BRING
STRENGTHENING WINDS TODAY AND A FEW SHOWERS. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL TRACK UP THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY. A FEW SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH IT MAY CLIP FAR SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. IT WILL
TURN SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(948 AM EST SUN NOV 13 2011)
(REST OF THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
I DID SOME MINOR UPDATES TO THE ZONES FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING
AND INTO THIS EVENING. MOSTLY I INCREASED POP NEAR AND NORTH OF
ROUTE 10 FOR THIS AFTERNOON TO LIKELY AND CONTINUED TO POP INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING. THAT WAS MOSTLY BASED ON THE LATEST DATA FROM
THE RUC 12Z ...HRRR 11Z AND SREF 09Z WHICH SUGGEST THE BEST RH AND
LIFT WILL BE NEAR AND NORTH OF ROUTE 10. SINCE THERE ARE SHOWERS
SEEN ON RADAR (NOT REACHING THE GROUND YET) OVER SOUTHEAST MN AND
THAT MATCHED NICELY THE LATEST HRRR FORECAST DATA SEEMS MORE THE
REASONABLE.
I STILL BELIEVE WHAT THE PREVIOUS SHIFT HAD TO SAY ABOUT THE WINDS
NOT BEING ABLE TO MIX DOWN THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE LACK OF SOLAR
RADIATION TO AID THE CAUSE. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS THROUGH SINCE
50 KNOTS IS NOT TO FAR OFF THE GROUND. A LITTLE DEEPER MIXING AND
WE WILL SEE WINDS IN ADVISORY RANGE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...STILL SOME FAIRLY
SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE DISCREPANCIES REGARDING THE MONDAY
SYSTEM WITH 00Z NAM GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING HIGHER POPS/GREATER QPF
THAN THE 00Z GFS. THIS STILL SEEMS TIED TO HOW STRONG/WHERE THE
GREATEST MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL BE. IT IS NOTED
THOUGH THAT EVEN THE 00Z GFS NOW HAS STRONG MID LEVEL FGEN ALONG THE
I-94 CORRIDOR BY 18Z MON. MAV GUIDANCE POPS LOOK LOW FOR OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF MID LEVEL FGEN THAT IS
PROGGED. WE WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS FOR RAIN FOR OUR SOUTHERN FCST
AREA MONDAY WITH CHC POPS FOR MOST OF THE REST OF OUR FCST AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM...(400 AM EST SUN NOV 13 2011)
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN
TUESDAY NIGHT AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE FRONT
WILL BRING MUCH COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION WHICH WILL KICK IN SOME
LAKE EFFECT SNOW.
THERE MAY BE A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT
EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH ANY PRECIPITATION SWITCHING OVER TO SNOW
OVERNIGHT. MOISTURE IS NOT VERY DEEP TUESDAY NIGHT...SO NOT
EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING LOOKS TO BE A COLD PERIOD WITH
SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW. DELTA T/S INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO ALMOST
20 DEGREES C...WITH CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE. ONLY QUESTION MARK AT
THIS POINT IS MOISTURE DEPTH. MODELS USUALLY ARE TOO LOW IN REGARD
TO LAKE EFFECT MOISTURE DEPTH OUT THIS FAR IN THE FORECAST...SO SEE
THE NEED TO PROBABLY RAMP UP POPS A LITTLE MORE WITH TIME. NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION TO SEE SOME LIGHT ACCUMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT TOWARD THE
LAKE...MAINLY ON GRASSY AREAS.
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY FOR THE MOST PART
AS SOUTHERLY FLOW TAKES HOLD ONCE AGAIN. HAVE SMALL POPS IN THE
SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE
AREA. BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE
WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLDER THAN NORMAL TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN COLD NORTHWEST FLOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY IN DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(102 PM EST SUN NOV 13 2011)
GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
STREAMS INTO THE REGION. CIGS WILL LIKELY REMAIN AROUND 3K FT THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE RISING TONIGHT. SHOWERS POSSIBLE NEAR KMKG THIS
AFTERNOON.
VFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE BULK OF FORECAST PERIOD IN THE
3500-7000FT RANGE. A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THIS
MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AT THE NORTHERN TAF SITES OF KMKG...KGRR AND KLAN. AT THIS
POINT USING VCSH WITH NO RESTRICTION TO VISIBILITY.
&&
.MARINE...(400 AM EST SUN NOV 13 2011)
SOUTHERLY GALES TO 35 KTS WILL CAUSE WAVE HEIGHTS TO BUILD TO 6 TO
10 FEET TODAY. A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN A
GRADUAL DECREASE IN WINDS AND WAVES.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...(400 AM EST SUN NOV 13 2011)
ANY RAINFALL TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL NOT BE SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO
CAUSE ANY HYDRO ISSUES. HOWEVER THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR AROUND A HALF
AN INCH OF RAIN OR SO ALONG THE I-94 CORRIDOR MONDAY.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE NEARSHORE THROUGH 06Z MON.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS: LAURENS
SHORT TERM: LAURENS WDM
LONG TERM: DUKE
AVIATION: 93
MARINE: LAURENS
HYDROLOGY: LAURENS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
948 AM EST SUN NOV 13 2011
LATEST UPDATE...SHORT TERM...
.SYNOPSIS...(400 AM EST SUN NOV 13 2011)
LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL BRING
STRENGTHENING WINDS TODAY AND A FEW SHOWERS. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL TRACK UP THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY. A FEW SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH IT MAY CLIP FAR SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. IT WILL
TURN SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(948 AM EST SUN NOV 13 2011)
(REST OF THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
I DID SOME MINOR UPDATES TO THE ZONES FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING
AND INTO THIS EVENING. MOSTLY I INCREASED POP NEAR AND NORTH OF
ROUTE 10 FOR THIS AFTERNOON TO LIKELY AND CONTINUED TO POP INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING. THAT WAS MOSTLY BASED ON THE LATEST DATA FROM
THE RUC 12Z ...HRRR 11Z AND SREF 09Z WHICH SUGGEST THE BEST RH AND
LIFT WILL BE NEAR AND NORTH OF ROUTE 10. SINCE THERE ARE SHOWERS
SEEN ON RADAR (NOT REACHING THE GROUND YET) OVER SOUTHEAST MN AND
THAT MATCHED NICELY THE LATEST HRRR FORECAST DATA SEEMS MORE THE
REASONABLE.
I STILL BELIEVE WHAT THE PREVIOUS SHIFT HAD TO SAY ABOUT THE WINDS
NOT BEING ABLE TO MIX DOWN THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE LACK OF SOLAR
RADIATION TO AID THE CAUSE. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS THROUGH SINCE
50 KNOTS IS NOT TO FAR OFF THE GROUND. A LITTLE DEEPER MIXING AND
WE WILL SEE WINDS IN ADVISORY RANGE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...STILL SOME FAIRLY
SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE DISCREPANCIES REGARDING THE MONDAY
SYSTEM WITH 00Z NAM GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING HIGHER POPS/GREATER QPF
THAN THE 00Z GFS. THIS STILL SEEMS TIED TO HOW STRONG/WHERE THE
GREATEST MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL BE. IT IS NOTED
THOUGH THAT EVEN THE 00Z GFS NOW HAS STRONG MID LEVEL FGEN ALONG THE
I-94 CORRIDOR BY 18Z MON. MAV GUIDANCE POPS LOOK LOW FOR OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF MID LEVEL FGEN THAT IS
PROGGED. WE WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS FOR RAIN FOR OUR SOUTHERN FCST
AREA MONDAY WITH CHC POPS FOR MOST OF THE REST OF OUR FCST AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM...(400 AM EST SUN NOV 13 2011)
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN
TUESDAY NIGHT AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE FRONT
WILL BRING MUCH COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION WHICH WILL KICK IN SOME
LAKE EFFECT SNOW.
THERE MAY BE A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT
EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH ANY PRECIPITATION SWITCHING OVER TO SNOW
OVERNIGHT. MOISTURE IS NOT VERY DEEP TUESDAY NIGHT...SO NOT
EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING LOOKS TO BE A COLD PERIOD WITH
SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW. DELTA T/S INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO ALMOST
20 DEGREES C...WITH CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE. ONLY QUESTION MARK AT
THIS POINT IS MOISTURE DEPTH. MODELS USUALLY ARE TOO LOW IN REGARD
TO LAKE EFFECT MOISTURE DEPTH OUT THIS FAR IN THE FORECAST...SO SEE
THE NEED TO PROBABLY RAMP UP POPS A LITTLE MORE WITH TIME. NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION TO SEE SOME LIGHT ACCUMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT TOWARD THE
LAKE...MAINLY ON GRASSY AREAS.
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY FOR THE MOST PART
AS SOUTHERLY FLOW TAKES HOLD ONCE AGAIN. HAVE SMALL POPS IN THE
SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE
AREA. BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE
WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLDER THAN NORMAL TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN COLD NORTHWEST FLOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY IN DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(715 AM EST SUN NOV 13 2011)
THE MAIN STORY WITH THIS MORNING/S TAF ISSUANCE IS THE WIND. SOUTH
WINDS (180-200 DEGREES) OF 15-30 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH SOME
GUSTS REACHING THE 30-35 KNOT RANGE. THE WINDS WILL REMAIN UP ALL
DAY...SUBSIDING SUBSTANTIALLY AND EVEN LOSING THE GUSTINESS AFTER
01Z OR SO THIS EVENING. A CROSS WIND IS OBVIOUSLY EXPECTED ON
EAST/WEST RUNWAYS THROUGH THE DAY.
VFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE BULK OF FORECAST PERIOD IN THE
3500-7000FT RANGE. A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THIS
MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AT THE NORTHERN TAF SITES OF KMKG...KGRR AND KLAN. AT THIS
POINT USING VCSH WITH NO RESTRICTION TO VISIBILITY.
&&
.MARINE...(400 AM EST SUN NOV 13 2011)
SOUTHERLY GALES TO 35 KTS WILL CAUSE WAVE HEIGHTS TO BUILD TO 6 TO
10 FEET TODAY. A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN A
GRADUAL DECREASE IN WINDS AND WAVES.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...(400 AM EST SUN NOV 13 2011)
ANY RAINFALL TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL NOT BE SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO
CAUSE ANY HYDRO ISSUES. HOWEVER THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR AROUND A HALF
AN INCH OF RAIN OR SO ALONG THE I-94 CORRIDOR MONDAY.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE NEARSHORE THROUGH 06Z MON.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS: LAURENS
SHORT TERM: LAURENS WDM
LONG TERM: DUKE
AVIATION: DUKE
MARINE: LAURENS
HYDROLOGY: LAURENS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GLASGOW MT
1037 AM MST SUN NOV 13 2011
.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO RAISE THE TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES THIS
MORNING. ADDED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES FOR
LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN THIS MORNING...ZORTMAN WAS REPORTING LIGHT
SNOW AROUND 0945. ADJUSTED THE SKY COVER DOWN SOME AS BREAKS IN
THE CLOUD COVER ARE SHOWING UP ON THE VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP. THE
OVERALL SITUATION IS STILL NORTHWEST FLOW WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES
MOVING ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA. THE PROBLEM IS THE LACK OF MID AND
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT IN THE ATMOSPHERE WHEN THESE
SHORTWAVE CROSS EASTERN MONTANA. A FEW OF THE MODELS ARE ALSO
STARTING TO BACK OFF OF SEEING PRECIPITATION FOR THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
THE NAM HAS DRIED NORTHEAST MONTANA OUT FOR THE REST OF THE DAY
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW CLIPPING EXTREME NORTHEAST MONTANA.
THE GFS IS STILL TRYING TO BRING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH
NEMONT THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. LOOKING AT
THE HRRR MODEL IT LOOKS MORE LIKE THE NAM FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.
MY THOUGHTS ON TODAY ARE TO LEAVE THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN
OR SNOW IN THE FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION. ANYTHING PRECIPITATION
THAT DOES HAPPEN WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND WILL NOT BE MUCH MORE THEN
A TRACE. THERE IS STILL A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW AS A COLD
FRONT CROSS EASTERN MONTANA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH EARLY MONDAY
MORNING INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. RSMITH
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AT 15 TO 25 MPH WILL
QUICKLY DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING. THUS THE LAKE
WIND ADVISORY EXPIRATION TIME OF 6 PM LOOKS ON TRACK. THE MAIN
TROUGH BODY WILL CLEAR THE REGION TO THE SOUTH AND EAST BY EARLY
EVENING AS WELL. A LARGE REGION OF LOW STRATUS CURRENTLY EXISTS
ACROSS SOUTHERN ALBERTA AND SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. EXPECT THIS
CLOUD COVER TO PUSH IN THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WHILE THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW STAYS NORTHWEST. WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THIS FLOW COULD
DRIVE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS...IN ADDITION SOME LIGHT FLURRIES OR
DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE OUT OF THE STRATUS.
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT THE UNSETTLED NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA. GIVEN THIS FLOW PATTERN AND
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW PERIODS OF
LIGHT PRECIPITATION...THUS KEPT MENTION IN THE FORECAST. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS LOOK TO RETURN LATE SUNDAY MORNING...AND ANOTHER
LAKE WIND ADVISORY LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET.
MONDAY WILL BRING ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND BETTER
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION. BRISK GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...AND WILL LIKELY REACH THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE
WITH A FEW GUSTS APPROACHING 40 MPH AT TIMES. TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO BE ON THE COOL SIDE BEHIND THE FRONT...STRUGGLING TO CLIMB
OUT OF THE 30S AT MOST LOCATIONS. GILCHRIST
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY... THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH A
SYNOPTIC SET UP OF A TROUGH RUNNING DOWN NUNAVUT TO MANITOBA AND A
RIDGE RUNNING UP THE COAST OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MONTANA WILL BE
WEDGED BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES ON THE COLDER SIDE OF NORTHWEST
FLOW PATTERN. CONDITIONS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY DRY THROUGH THIS
PERIOD WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES JUST A LITTLE BELOW
NORMAL.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... AS THE RIDGE CROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST IT WILL BEGIN EXTENDING A WEAK CHINOOK OVER THE REGION WITH
VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WARMING CONDITIONS TO NEAR OR JUST ABOVE
NORMAL.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT... THE CHINOOK SHUTS OFF AND
THE FIRST WAVE OF TRUE ARCTIC AIR THAT HAD BEEN GATHERING OVER THE
ALASKAN NORTH SLOPE BEGINS TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. A STRONG DROP
OFF IN TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES CAN BE
ANTICIPATED AS THE BOUNDARY SETS ITSELF UP WELL TO THE SOUTH OVER
NORTHERN WYOMING. AT THIS POINT... A TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE WEST
COAST OF THE CONUS AND BEGIN LEVELING WARMER MOIST PACIFIC AIR UP
INTO THE MID LEVELS ON SOUTHWEST FLOW.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... WHILE MODELS CAN CHANGE THIS FAR OUT A
HIGHER THAN NORMAL SIGNAL IS BEING SENT AS THE GFS AND EC MATCH AND
STANDARD DEVIATION OF THE ENSEMBLE SPREADS IS RATHER LOW. PACIFIC
MOISTURE WILL RIDE UP AND OVER THE DEVELOPED ARCTIC BOUNDARY AND
GENERATE A FAIRLY STRONG SNOW STORM SOMEWHERE BETWEEN WYOMING...
EASTERN MONTANA... AND THE DAKOTAS. AT THE MOMENT BEST GUESS IS
FOR THE BULK OF THE SNOW TO BE TO THE SOUTH. BUT WITH FUTURE RUNS
THIS STORM COULD EASILY DRIFT NORTH. CONFIDENCE IN THE STORM IS
SURPRISINGLY WELL ABOVE AVERAGE THIS FAR OUT BUT PLACEMENT IS NOT
YET CERTAIN AS THE ARCTIC FRONT IS SURE TO NEED ADJUSTING. GAH
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR WITH A MID LEVEL BROKEN TO OVERCAST DECK. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF
THE WEST AROUND 15 TO 20 KTS GUSTING UP TO 30 KTS FOR SOME PLACES.
&&
.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR FORT PECK
LAKE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1216 PM CST SUN NOV 13 2011
.UPDATE...MIDDAY SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A COLD FRONT EXTENDING
ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...WITH FROPA COMPLETE ACROSS OUR ENTIRE CWA AS OF 18Z. THE
LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD REMAINS FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST AS A
RESULT...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS NEAR 20KTS LOCATED ACROSS OUR
EAST IN AN AREA JUST BEHIND THE FRONT WHERE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE
RISES ARE THE GREATEST. SURFACE WINDS ARE DIMINISHING ACROSS OUR
WEST HOWEVER AS THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT FORCE CONTINUES
WEAKENING FARTHER BEHIND THE FRONT.
SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AND LOW LEVEL CAA WILL
LIKELY KEEP AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES FROM RISING VERY FAR THIS
AFTERNOON. GOING FORECAST HAD THIS WELL IN HAND WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID 50S TO NEAR 60...THUS NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO FORECAST
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. DOWN SLOPE WEST/NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH PBL MIXING EXPECTED TO
RISE TO NEAR 800MB THIS AFTERNOON. RUC AND LAPS PROXIMITY
SOUNDINGS FROM ACROSS THE CWA SUGGEST THE DRIEST AIR IS LOCATED
CLOSER TO THE SURFACE TODAY...WITH SLIGHTLY MORE MOISTURE EXISTING
ABOVE 900MB. LAYER-AVERAGED DEW POINTS FROM 800MB PER THE NAM DO
NOT SUGGEST MUCH OF DROP OFF IN AFTERNOON SURFACE DEW POINTS AS A
RESULT...HOWEVER SURFACE ANALYSIS DOES INDICATE MUCH LOWER SURFACE
DEW POINT ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA BEGINNING TO ADVECT INTO OUR
AREA...THUS THERE MAY STILL BE A DROP IN AFTERNOON DEW
POINTS...PERHAPS FALLING INTO THE LOW TO MID 20 DEGREE RANGE.
THESE DEW POINTS AND FORECAST AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ONLY YIELD
AFTERNOON RH VALUES IN THE 23%-25% RANGE ACROSS OUR WEST...AND
WITH SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DIMINISHING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...DO NOT CURRENTLY EXPECT RFW ISSUANCE WILL BE
REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION...18Z KGRI TAF. VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AT KGRI
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SURFACE WINDS WILL VARY FROM THE
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...DECREASING IN
INTENSITY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS NEAR 18000FT AGL WILL
LIKELY PERSIST AT THE TERMINAL...WITH CEILINGS LOWERING TO NEAR
9000FT AGL 00Z-09Z. VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT KGRI
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CST SUN NOV 13 2011/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS
CROSSING THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS. THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WAS PRETTY MUCH THROUGH OUR CWA AS OF 09Z. THREE HOUR
PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT AVERAGED 1-3MB...AND SOME
IMPRESSIVE WIND GUSTS OVER 50MPH WERE OBSERVED IN PORTIONS OF
WESTERN NEBRASKA EARLIER...WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH STILL OCCURRING
ATTM. THE SURFACE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT THROUGH ABOUT MID
MORNING...RESULTING IN GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS...BEFORE
RELAXING DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER TODAY
FOLLOWING FROPA WITH TEMPS MAINLY RETURNING TO THE 50S TO AROUND
60F. MUCH DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING...AND
WILL RESULT IN LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES. CURRENT FORECAST LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST IN THE LOW/MID 20S AND AS
WINDS DECREASE WITH TIME TODAY...MEETING FIRE WEATHER WARNING CRITERIA
TODAY LOOKS TO BE BORDERLINE.
HEADING INTO THE EVENING...A 150KT JET STREAK NOSES ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS AND A SUBTLE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSES THE
CENTRAL PLAINS REGION. OVERALL FEELING IS THAT WE WILL MAINLY SEE
JUST AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER VS PCPN WITH FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND CROSS SECTIONS INDICATING RATHER DRY LOW LEVELS.
HOWEVER WITH SPRINKLE WORDING ALREADY IN THERE...AND GFS/ECMWF
SHOWING SOME LIGHT QPF...WILL LEAVE AS IS BUT LIMIT TIME FRAME TO
BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z MONDAY...WITH LIFT DIMINISHING AND CLOUDS
DECREASING AFTER 06Z.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND IN THE LLVLS WILL KEEP TEMPS ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS FOR HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. MONDAY
NIGHT...A TROUGH CROSSES THE NORTHERN PLAINS REGION...SENDING A COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY TUESDAY
MORNING. THE GFS IS DEEPER WITH TROUGH/COLD AIR ADVECTION ON
TUESDAY COMPARED TO OTHER MODELS...WITH THE ECMWF THE MILDEST AND
THE NAM IN BETWEEN THE TWO. WILL COMPROMISE FOR NOW AMONG MODELS
WITH TEMPS CLOSER TO THE NAM SOLUTION. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND TEMPS LOOK TO DROP INTO THE 20S FOR LOWS
IN THE COOLER/DRY AIRMASS.
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE GFS SWINGS THE TROUGH
THROUGH THE PLAINS QUICKER THAN ECMWF WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER EITHER WAY
STILL A COOLER DAY WITH H85 TEMPS NEAR -5C AND TEMPS ONLY
AVERAGING IN THE 40S FOR HIGHS. HEIGHTS RISE BEHIND THE DEPARTING
TROUGH THRU THE WORKWEEK...WITH FLOW TRANSITIONING SOUTHWESTERLY
BY SATURDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH REACHES THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. MODELS ARE
INDICATING SOME PCPN IN THE VCNTY OF OUR CWA SATURDAY IN THE WAA
PATTERN BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON LOCATION OF THIS JUST YET
AND WILL MAINTAIN DRY FCST FOR NOW.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE/AVIATION...BRYANT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1001 PM CST MON NOV 14 2011
.UPDATE...
UPDATE MAINLY FOR POP/WEATHER TRENDS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
THE NAM AND RUC HAVE BACK OFF ON THEIR MORE AGGRESSIVE SOLUTIONS
WITH THE LATEST RUNS THIS EVENING. HAD BEEN CONCERNS PREVIOUSLY
ABOUT REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SOME
LOCATIONS...BUT THAT NOW DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY. GLASGOW RECEIVED
NEARLY AN INCH AS THE SNOW BAND MOVED THROUGH. THINKING 1-2 INCH
AMOUNTS WILL BE COMMON...IN THE WILLISTON/WATFORD CITY/GARRISON
AREAS...WITH GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH ELSEWHERE. WITH THE
STRONGER WINDS EXPECTED TO LAG BEHIND THE SNOWFALL
SOMEWHAT...BLOWING SNOW SHOULD NOT BE A SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT...ALTHOUGH WILL MENTION PATCHY BLOWING SNOW IN THE
NORTHWEST TOWARD DAYBREAK.
&&
.AVIATION...
A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL PUSH THROUGH THE STATE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING...BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW. EXPECT MAINLY MVFR
CIGS AND MVFR TO BRIEF IFR VSBYS IN SNOW SHOWERS. VSBY REDUCTIONS
DUE TO BLOWING SNOW NOT EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANT.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KINNEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
741 PM CST MON NOV 14 2011
.UPDATE...
UPDATE TO REFINE POPS AND WEATHER TIMING TONIGHT...AND INCREASE
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS A BIT.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
WILL BE MONITORING LATEST MODELS CLOSELY THIS EVENING FOR
POTENTIAL OF A NARROW BAND OF ENHANCED SNOWFALL. THE 18Z NAM HAS
THE DEEPEST AND SLOWEST SFC LOW...WHILE THE RUC REPRESENTS A
DECENT BLEND OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS AND THE SREF. THE 00Z RUC
HAS BACKED OFF QPF FOR TONIGHT...AFTER EARLIER INDICATING
POTENTIAL FOR ADVISORY-TYPE AMOUNTS. WITH WINDS INCREASING ON BACK
SIDE OF LOW...ALSO POTENTIAL FOR SOME BLOWING SNOW. LATEST
THINKING HAS ACCUMULATIONS AROUND 2 INCHES BY MORNING...IN THE
WILLISTON/STANLEY/GARRISON AREAS.
&&
.AVIATION...
A SERIES OF MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES COUPLED WITH AN UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. CIGS AND VIS WILL LIKELY DROP TO MVFR AND BELOW DURING
ANY PERIODS OF SNOWFALL. WINDS WILL TRANSITION TO WEST LATE TONIGHT
AND BECOME GUSTY INTO TUESDAY DAYTIME.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KINNEY
AVIATION...NH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
840 PM EST MON NOV 14 2011
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH A FRONT
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL AROUND
OR JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE MARYLAND BORDER. ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL ROLL ALONG THE FRONT BUT TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY. THE UNSEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK TO
NORMALS LATER THIS WEEK AS A NOTICEABLY COLDER AIR MASS SETTLES
IN.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SFC LOW TRACKING NE OVR LK ERIE THIS EVENING. LL JET TRANSPORTING
INCREASINGLY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR INTO NW PA SETTING THE STAGE FOR A
ROUND OF TSRA THIS EVENING AHEAD OF TRAILING COLD FRONT. HAVE
RECEIVED RPTS OF NUMEROUS TREES/WIRES DOWN ASSOCIATED WITH BOWING
SEGMENT OF LINE NEAR THE NY BORDER THIS EVENING. MDL SIMULATED
REFLECTIVITY INDICATES LINE OF TSRA WILL GRADUALLY LOSE INTENSITY
AS IT SAGS SE INTO THE CENTRAL MTNS LATE THIS EVENING.
LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL BE
PRESENT NORTH OF I80...COMBINED WITH PLENTY OF SHEAR...TO PRODUCE
A SVR WX POTENTIAL THRU ARND MIDNIGHT.
GUSTY WINDS IN SOME SPOTS THIS EVENING WILL DIE DOWN LATER
TONIGHT...AS LL JET SHIFTS NORTH OF THE STATE. WANING LG SCALE
FORCING WILL RESULT IN LIGHTER...MORE SCT SHRA AS FRONT APPROACHES
SOUTHERN PA EARLY TUE AM. FRONT LOSES GOOD/VISIBLE WIND SHIFT AND
LITTLE P-GRAD FOUND LATER TONIGHT AND TUES AM. THUS...IT MAY BE
TOUGH TO PINPOINT WHERE THE HIGHER CHCS FOR PRECIP WILL BE...BUT
WILL LEAN TOWARD THE SREF MEAN PRECIP FIELDS AND PAINT HIGHEST
NUMBERS IN THE LAURELS WHERE UPSLOPE SHOULD HELP SQUEEZE SOME
MOISTURE OUT...BUT DOWNSLOPE AND MORE-DISTANCE FROM THE WEAK
MOISTURE FEED WILL MAKE IT A TOUGH FCST FOR PRECIP /NO OR YES/ IN
THE LOWER SUSQ.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG FROM CENTRAL PA ARND DAWN...TO THE
MASON DIXON LATE IN THE DAY. HAVE THEREFORE TRENDED POPS DOWNWARD
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...TAPERING OFF EARLY OVR THE NORTH AND LATE
AFTN ACROSS THE SOUTH. SREF DATA SUPPORTS HIGH POPS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTH...DESPITE FAIRLY LOW QPF. LOTS OF RADAR ECHOES
LIKELY...BUT ONLY MINOR ACCUMS. TEMPS ON TUES WILL BE MILD
AGAIN...BUT NOT AS TOASTY AS TODAY IN THE SOUTH WHERE THE CLOUDS
WILL BE THICKEST. ALMOST UNIFORM 55-60F MAXES ARE EXPECTED. THESE
ARE STILL 5-10F ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO DOMINATE THE EASTERN
US THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY AND THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION ON
WEDNESDAY. THE PERIOD WILL START WET WITH RAINS ALONG THE FRONT THEN
TURN DRY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT.
IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT...IT WILL TURN MUCH COLDER LATER
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...WITH 850 HPA TEMPERATURES DIPPING TO
ABOUT 1 SD BELOW NORMAL. THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF A BROAD AREA OF
STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL MOVE ACROSS NW AND NORTH
CENTRAL PENN WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY LEADING TO NUMEROUS SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NW MTNS...WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS FURTHER
SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU.
850 HPA TEMPS ARE -6C BY WED NIGHT AND FALL FARTHER TO -8C...WITH A
TROUGH OF VERY COLD 700 MB TEMPS NEAR -20C SLIDING ACROSS NRN PENN
ON THURSDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW SHOWER THREAT...THE WINDS
SHOULD PICK UP...PUSHING THE WIND CHILLS THROUGH THE 20S...AND INTO
THE TEENS LATE THURSDAY AND THUR NIGHT.
SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IMPLIES 1-3
INCHES OF SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PERENNIAL SNOWBELT
NEAR...AND TO THE WEST OF KBFD...WITH AN INCH OR LESS ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTH AND WEST.
FOR THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA...PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
WILL OCCUR IN THE WAKE OF THE CFRONT...WITH NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION.
TEMPERATURES MODERATE BACK TOWARD NORMAL THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...THAT PESKY RIDGE IN THE SOUTHEAST AND OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WILL LIMIT THE SOUTHWARD PENETRATION OF THE FRONT.
THE PW VALUES DROP BELOW NORMAL LATE WED AND STAY NORMAL
OR BELOW NORMAL FROM THU-SUNDAY. THIS PERIOD SHOULD BE UNSEASONABLY
DRY. WILL CONTINUE WITH BELOW NORMAL POPS FOR ALL OF THE REGION
DURING THE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY PERIOD.
AS THE TROUGH BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN US LATER THIS WEEK...THE
SOUTHEASTERN RIDGE SHOULD PUSH WARMER AIR INTO OUR REGION SATURDAY.
THE 850 HPA TEMPERATURES ARE PREDICTED TO BE 1SD ABOVE NORMAL LATE
SATURDAY ACROSS THE NW PART OF THE STATE...AND AREA-WIDE ON SUNDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES WITH THE NEXT CHC FOR SHOWERS LATER
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
00Z PACKAGE SIMILAR TO EARLIER FCST. BFD NEAR SOUTHERN EDGE
OF LINE OF FAST MOVING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. WILL HAVE TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND ADJUST FCST AS NEEDED.
OTHER ISSUE IS LLWS...A SMALL LAYER OF COOL AIR RIGHT NEAR
THE GROUND AND WEAK NORTHERLY WINDS SITLL IN SOME SPOTS...
ESPECIALLY N PA.
EXPECT THINGS TO IMPROVE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON TUE.
LOW CIGS AND SHOWERS WILL LIKELY PERSIST ACROSS S PA
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON WED...BUT A
LOT OF DIRECTIONAL SHEAR...SO NOT EXPECTING A LOT IN THE
WAY OF LOW SC OFF THE LAKES.
GUSTY NW WINDS AND LOWER SC OFF THE LAKES WILL BE MORE OF
AN ISSUE FOR LATE WED INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...ALONG WITH
SOME SNOW SHOWERS.
OUTLOOK...
TUES NIGHT-WED...MVFR TO IFR IN PDS OF RAIN...ESP SOUTH.
THU...MVFR TO IFR CIGS WEST WITH -SHSN. VFR TO MVFR EAST.
FRI-SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
653 PM EST MON NOV 14 2011
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH A FRONT
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL AROUND
OR JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE MARYLAND BORDER. ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL ROLL ALONG THE FRONT BUT TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY. THE UNSEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK TO
NORMALS LATER THIS WEEK AS A NOTICEABLY COLDER AIR MASS SETTLES
IN.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC LOW TRACKING NE OVR LK ERIE THIS EVENING. LL JET TRANSPORTING
INCREASINGLY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR INTO NW PA SETTING THE STAGE FOR A
ROUND OF TSRA LATER THIS EVENING AS TRAILING COLD FRONT ARRIVES
OVR THE NW MTNS. MDL SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY INDICATES LINE OF TSRA
WILL ARRIVE OVR WARREN COUNTY ARND 00Z. LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS
INDICATE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE NW
MTNS...COMBINED WITH PLENTY OF SHEAR...TO PRODUCE A SVR WX
POTENTIAL THRU ARND MIDNIGHT. LATEST MDL DATA INDICATES MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PA WILL REMAIN DRY THIS EVENING...SO HAVE
REMOVED MENTION OF PRECIP.
&&
.SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
FRONT PROGRESSES SOUTHWARD TONIGHT...AND WILL HOLD ONTO MENTIONS
OF THUNDER FOR THE EARLY NIGHTTIME IN THE WEST. GUSTY WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH DEEP-ER CONVECTION. EXPECT ANY STORMS TO BE
SHORT...BUT SVR WINDS NOT MORE THAN 3KFT OFF THE DECK EARLY
TONIGHT. DRY IS THE WORD FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE PD IN THE
SOUTH...AND MOISTURE AND FORCING BOTH DECREASE TONIGHT AS THE
FRONT DIPS THROUGH THE AREA. SFC WINDS GO LIGHT AND AMBIENT
MOISTURE COULD CREATE PATCHY FOG BUT NOT BAD/WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO
MENTION IN THE GRIDS. FRONT LOSES GOOD/VISIBLE WIND SHIFT AND
LITTLE P-GRAD FOUND LATER TONIGHT AND TUES AM. THUS...IT MAY BE
TOUGH TO PINPOINT WHERE THE HIGHER CHCS FOR PRECIP WILL BE
TUES...BUT WILL BEND TOWARD THE SREF MEAN PRECIP FIELDS AND PAINT
HIGHEST NUMBERS IN THE LAURELS WHERE UPSLOPE SHOULD HELP SQUEEZE
SOME MOISTURE OUT...BUT DOWNSLOPE AND MORE-DISTANCE FROM THE
WEAK MOISTURE FEED WILL MAKE IT A TOUGH FCST FOR PRECIP /NO OR
YES/ IN THE LOWER SUSQ. HAVE KEPT HIGH POPS IN FOR THE DAYTIME BUT
EXPECT QPF TO BE LOW LIKE TODAY/MONDAY HAS BEEN IN THE N. LOTS OF
RADAR ECHOES LIKELY...BUT ONLY MINOR ACCUMS. MEAGER POS CAPES
LATER TONIGHT AND TUES...BUT STABILITY INCREASES RATHER QUICKLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND LASTS THRU ALL OF TUES. MAXES ON TUES WILL BE
MILD AGAIN...BUT NOT AS TOASTY AS TODAY IN THE SOUTH WHERE THE
CLOUDS WILL BE THICKEST. ALMOST UNIFORM 55-60F MAXES ARE EXPECTED.
THESE ARE STILL 5-10F ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO DOMINATE THE EASTERN
US THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY AND THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION ON
WEDNESDAY. THE PERIOD WILL START WET WITH RAINS ALONG THE FRONT THEN
TURN DRY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT.
IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT...IT WILL TURN MUCH COLDER LATER
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...WITH 850 HPA TEMPERATURES DIPPING TO
ABOUT 1 SD BELOW NORMAL. THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF A BROAD AREA OF
STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL MOVE ACROSS NW AND NORTH
CENTRAL PENN WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY LEADING TO NUMEROUS SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NW MTNS...WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS FURTHER
SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU.
850 HPA TEMPS ARE -6C BY WED NIGHT AND FALL FARTHER TO -8C...WITH A
TROUGH OF VERY COLD 700 MB TEMPS NEAR -20C SLIDING ACROSS NRN PENN
ON THURSDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW SHOWER THREAT...THE WINDS
SHOULD PICK UP...PUSHING THE WIND CHILLS THROUGH THE 20S...AND INTO
THE TEENS LATE THURSDAY AND THUR NIGHT.
SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IMPLIES 1-3
INCHES OF SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PERENNIAL SNOWBELT
NEAR...AND TO THE WEST OF KBFD...WITH AN INCH OR LESS ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTH AND WEST.
FOR THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA...PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
WILL OCCUR IN THE WAKE OF THE CFRONT...WITH NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION.
TEMPERATURES MODERATE BACK TOWARD NORMAL THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...THAT PESKY RIDGE IN THE SOUTHEAST AND OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WILL LIMIT THE SOUTHWARD PENETRATION OF THE FRONT.
THE PW VALUES DROP BELOW NORMAL LATE WED AND STAY NORMAL
OR BELOW NORMAL FROM THU-SUNDAY. THIS PERIOD SHOULD BE UNSEASONABLY
DRY. WILL CONTINUE WITH BELOW NORMAL POPS FOR ALL OF THE REGION
DURING THE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY PERIOD.
AS THE TROUGH BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN US LATER THIS WEEK...THE
SOUTHEASTERN RIDGE SHOULD PUSH WARMER AIR INTO OUR REGION SATURDAY.
THE 850 HPA TEMPERATURES ARE PREDICTED TO BE 1SD ABOVE NORMAL LATE
SATURDAY ACROSS THE NW PART OF THE STATE...AND AREA-WIDE ON SUNDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES WITH THE NEXT CHC FOR SHOWERS LATER
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
00Z PACKAGE SIMILAR TO EARLIER FCST. BFD NEAR SOUTHERN EDGE
OF LINE OF FAST MOVING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. WILL HAVE TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND ADJUST FCST AS NEEDED.
OTHER ISSUE IS LLWS...A SMALL LAYER OF COOL AIR RIGHT NEAR
THE GROUND AND WEAK NORTHERLY WINDS SITLL IN SOME SPOTS...
ESPECIALLY N PA.
EXPECT THINGS TO IMPROVE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON TUE.
LOW CIGS AND SHOWERS WILL LIKELY PERSIST ACROSS S PA
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON WED...BUT A
LOT OF DIRECTIONAL SHEAR...SO NOT EXPECTING A LOT IN THE
WAY OF LOW SC OFF THE LAKES.
GUSTY NW WINDS AND LOWER SC OFF THE LAKES WILL BE MORE OF
AN ISSUE FOR LATE WED INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...ALONG WITH
SOME SNOW SHOWERS.
OUTLOOK...
TUES NIGHT-WED...MVFR TO IFR IN PDS OF RAIN...ESP SOUTH.
THU...MVFR TO IFR CIGS WEST WITH -SHSN. VFR TO MVFR EAST.
FRI-SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS FORT WORTH TX
920 PM CST MON NOV 14 2011
.UPDATE...
THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE RUC HAVE KEPT MOST OF THE RAIN
SOUTHEAST OF A BONHAM...WAXAHACHIE...LAMPASAS LINE. THE 00Z RUN
OF THE NAM ALSO KEEPS MOST OF THE RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
HALF OF NORTH TEXAS. THE WORKSTATION WRF AND HIGH RESOLUTION
RAPID REFRESH...INDICATE BETTER CHANCES FARTHER WEST...GENERALLY
SOUTHEAST OF A SHERMAN TO CISCO LINE. HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS
TO THE POPS TONIGHT...PLACING THE BEST CHANCES ALONG A BAND FROM
BONHAM AND PARIS SOUTHWEST TO LAMPASAS AND CAMERON....WITH LOWER
CHANCES TO THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST.
HAVE LEFT THE POPS AS IS FOR TUESDAY...AS MOST AREAS SOUTHEAST OF
A SHERMAN TO COMANCHE LINE SHOULD SEE SOME RAIN...THOUGH THE
HEAVIER AMOUNTS WILL BE EAST OF A BONHAM...HILLSBORO...LAMPASAS
LINE.
58
&&
.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/
CONCERNS...LOW CEILINGS AND THUNDERSTORM TIMING.
SYNOPSIS...
WEAK FRONT WILL REMAIN NORTHWEST OF METRO TAF SITES. MEAGER
SURFACE WINDS WILL MEAN LITTLE CONVERGENCE NEAR BOUNDARY IN NORTH
TEXAS THIS EVENING...DESPITE MINIMAL CAP. BETTER FORCING IN
SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA WHERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR
SURFACE FRONT. UPPER LOW OVER CHIHUAHUA WILL REACH THE RIO GRANDE
BY DAYBREAK. AS FEATURE APPROACHES...SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE ACROSS CWA LATER THIS EVENING...AND TRAINING LINE OF
STORMS MAY DEVELOP THROUGH METROPLEX AFTER MIDNIGHT...UPWIND OF
ONGOING CONVECTION.
METROPLEX...
VFR CIGS WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP THIS EVENING WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE
BY MIDNIGHT. STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL TONIGHT...BUT TIME FRAME FOR SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IN
METROPLEX APPEARS TO BE 06-10Z (MIDNIGHT-4 AM CST). AGREE WITH ZFW
THAT CIG HEIGHTS/TIMING WILL DEPEND ON EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION.
WILL CARRY MVFR CIGS WITH TSRA...THEN PREVAIL MVFR CIGS BEYOND 12Z
(6 AM CST). PRECIP WILL WIND DOWN AROUND MIDDAY TUESDAY...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. INTRODUCED FROPA IN
EXTENDED PORTION OF TAFDFW.
WACO...
WILL MAINTAIN POTENTIAL FOR IFR CIGS LATE EVENING THROUGH ONSET OF
CONVECTION. WINDOW FOR TSRA AT WACO...10-14Z (4-8 AM CST). SHOWERS
MAY LINGER BEYOND MIDDAY TUESDAY.
25
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM CST MON NOV 14 2011/
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO WILL APPROACH WEST TEXAS
TONIGHT AND MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE TOMORROW. HIGH
CLOUDS HAVE BEEN STREAMING OVERHEAD FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO ENVELOP THE REGION
TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
INCREASE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO
+DEVELOP THIS EVENING AS HEIGHTS FALL AND UVVS BECOME PRONOUNCED IN
ADVANCE OF THE UPPER LOW. FOR THIS EVENING IT APPEARS THAT SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE MAINLY SCATTERED IN NATURE AND BEGIN AROUND
THE 8-10 PM TIME.
MEANWHILE A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY NEAR THE RED RIVER WILL UNDERGO
COLD FRONTOGENESIS TONIGHT AS IT SHIFTS SOUTH AND DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE REGION. WE EXPECT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE
BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE PRIMARILY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
PARIS TO COMANCHE IN HIGHEST MOISTURE REGION...ROUGHLY NEAR AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST LOCATION OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY.
INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL WITH SB CAPE APPROACHING 1000
J/KG...WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL APPROACH 50 KT DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR A FEW SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN
THREAT LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE
STORMS WILL LIKELY OCCUR OVER EAST AND SOUTHEAST COUNTIES AFTER
MIDNIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
TORNADO AS 0-3 KM SR HELICITY MAY OCCASIONALLY EXCEED 100 BUT THE
THREAT SHOULD BE RATHER LOW.
THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IF
TRAINING STORMS BECOME AN ISSUE. MODEL QPF AND HPC GUIDANCE DO SHOW
SOME POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TOTALS ABOVE 3 INCHES OVER THE EASTERN
AND SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES...MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20. PW
FORECASTS HAVE LIKEWISE INCREASED SOME SO WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THE
FLOOD THREAT AND MONITOR THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM. FOR NOW IT
LOOKS LIKE 1-2 INCH TOTALS ARE MORE LIKELY OVER THE SOUTHEAST WITH
LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS. EXPECT OVERALL RAINFALL TOTALS TO
DECREASE AS YOU APPROACH THE RED RIVER WITH THE LOWEST STORM
TOTAL AMOUNTS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN MOST COUNTIES.
ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE STATE ALONG WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW TOMORROW EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE REGION. COOLER DRIER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. A WARM-UP WILL THEN OCCUR THIS WEEKEND AS
RETURN FLOW BECOMES REESTABLISHED. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY BRING A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEKEND OR
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
30
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 65 73 52 65 41 / 50 60 20 0 0
WACO, TX 65 73 52 69 41 / 60 80 10 0 0
PARIS, TX 65 71 51 62 37 / 70 80 60 10 0
DENTON, TX 63 73 46 64 37 / 40 50 20 0 0
MCKINNEY, TX 64 72 49 63 37 / 50 70 40 5 0
DALLAS, TX 66 72 53 66 41 / 50 70 30 0 0
TERRELL, TX 66 71 53 67 39 / 60 80 40 5 0
CORSICANA, TX 67 72 52 69 42 / 60 80 30 5 0
TEMPLE, TX 66 74 55 72 42 / 60 80 10 0 0
MINERAL WELLS, TX 60 73 45 64 35 / 40 40 10 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
25/58
FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1054 PM MST MON NOV 14 2011
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE KALS...KCOS AND KPUB TAF
SITES TONIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 517 PM MST MON NOV 14 2011/
UPDATE...
UPDATED GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR ENDING OF RED FLAG WARNING.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 PM MST MON NOV 14 2011/
SHORT TERM...
(TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS EL PASO AND
PUEBLO COUNTIES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...DUE TO A COMBINATION OF
LEE TROFFING AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MODELS DID NOT HAVE A VERY
GOOD HANDLE ON DEW POINTS TODAY...AS DRY AIR BEHIND YESTERDAY`S
DEPARTING SYSTEM TANKED DEW POINTS INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND
10 DEGREES ALONG THE LOWER EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS
AND I-25 CORRIDOR. RUC13 AND HRRR WERE THE FIRST TO CATCH ON TO
THIS. SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT IS TIGHTEST ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA WHICH WILL KEEP BREEZY WEST WINDS ACROSS PUEBLO AND EL PASO
COUNTY THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. FARTHER EAST OF
THE I-25 CORRIDOR...HAVE SEEN SOME OCCASIONALLY BREEZY WEST WINDS
KICK IN AS FAR EAST AS LHX...HOWEVER THEY HAVE BEEN LESS
PERSISTENT...AND THINK THAT IT WON`T QUITE MAKE THE 3 HOUR DURATION
REQUIRED FOR A RED FLAG WARNING. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER 00Z.
WITH THE DRY AIR IN PLACE...CHALLENGE WILL BE HOW COOL LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP. LOWER EASTERN SLOPES NEAR THE MTS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE SOME WESTERLY DRAINAGE WINDS OVERNIGHT WHICH
SHOULD KEEP MIN TEMPS AROUND 40. HOWEVER WHERE WINDS
DECOUPLE...EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP
QUICKLY. HAVE GONE ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR LOWS NEAR THE MTS...BUT KEPT
MINS ON THE LOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE ELSEWHERE.
FOR TOMORROW...NEXT WEAK WAVE EMBEDDED IN NW FLOW ALOFT WILL
APPROACH THE AREA. SHOULD SEE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS RAMP UP FOR
THE CENTRAL MTS. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHTER TOMORROW ACROSS THE
PLAINS...THOUGH A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH NRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
IN THE AFTERNOON. OVERALL TEMPS SHOULD NET A FEW DEGREES COOLER
ACROSS THE PLAINS. ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS MAY SPREAD ACROSS NORTHERN
EL PASO COUNTY IN THE LATE AFTN AS UPPER JET DYNAMICS MOVES IN ALOFT
AND FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. THINK MAIN THREAT WILL BE IN THE
EVENING...SO WILL MAINTAIN THE 10 POPS FOR NOW. -KT
LONG TERM...
(TUESDAY NIGHT-MONDAY)
TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION AS ANOTHER EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE
TRANSLATES ACROSS THE ROCKIES. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND CROSS SECTIONS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A FAIRLY SHALLOW LAYER OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE
STREAMING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT DIFFER ON LOCATION
OF BEST UVV WITH WITH PASSING JET CORE. AT ANY RATE...WITH CONTINUED
GOOD OROGRAPHIC FLOW...BEST POPS TO REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN
SAWATCH AND MOSQUITO RANGES EARLY TUESDAY EVENING WITH ANY SNOWFALL
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT TUESDAY. HAVE ALSO KEPT SLIGHT POPS ACROSS THE
PIKES PEAK REGION AS WELL...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A QUICK SHOT A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE GENERALLY
BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE PLAINS
WITH LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY...MODERATING WESTERLY FLOW PROGGED ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS JET STREAM LIFTS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER OF STATES. DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPS WARMING BACK TO
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES CAN BE EXPECTED. LEE TROUGHING ON THE PLAINS
WILL ALSO LEAD TO BREEZY CONDITIONS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
FRIDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...MODELS COMING INTO THE BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
SNOWFALL BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
ALONG AND WEST OF THE CONTDVD AS WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES
AHEAD OF AN EASTERN PACIFIC SYSTEM DIGGING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN
FRIDAY WHICH CONTINUES TO LIFT OUT ACROSS THE STATE ON SATURDAY.
PASSING WAVE LOOKS TO BRING ANOTHER BOUT OF WINDY TO VERY WINDY
CONDITIONS TO THE EASTERN MTS AND PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGING IN A MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS TO
THE AREA ON SUNDAY. AT THIS TIME...THE BULK OF THE COLDEST AIR LOOKS
TO REMAIN WELL EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...THOUGH WILL
NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR. -MW
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL 3 TAF SITES THROUGH TUESDAY. SOME GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT THE TAF SITES UNTIL 01-02Z...WITH
LIGHT DRAINAGE WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. ON TUESDAY...WEAK FRONT
WILL DROP THROUGH THE PLAINS WITH WINDS AT KCOS STAYING OUT OF THE
NW DURING THE MORNING. FOR KPUB...FRONT WILL LIKELY BACKDOOR IN
WITH WINDS SWITCHING AROUND FROM THE EAST DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON. MAIN NORTHERLY SURGE WITH THE FRONT WILL DROP IN
TOMORROW EVENING BRINGING A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTH WINDS OF 15
TO 25 KTS. MEANWHILE...WINDS AT KALS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OVERNIGHT
BEFORE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH AROUND 10 KTS TUES AFTN. -KT
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
1250 AM EST TUE NOV 15 2011
.AVIATION...
WK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH MOVED ALONG STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS NRN INDIANA THIS AFTN HAS MOVED RAPIDLY NE TO NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT.
IN ITS WAKE FRONT HAS SAGGED SOUTH INTO SRN INDIANA BUT GRADIENT
IS VERY WK AS WK RIDGE MOVG INTO THE AREA RESULTING IN LIGHT
SFC WINDS. WITH MOST OF THE AREA RECEIVING SGFNT RAIN OVER THE
PAST 18HRS... RADIATIONAL COOLING HAS ALLOWED PATCHY FOG TO FORM.
VSBYS ACROSS THE AREA CURRENTLY GENERALLY IN THE 2-4SM RANGE WITH
A FEW P6SM... INCLUDING FWA. APPEARS SW FLOW ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN
CIRRUS SHIELD ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND GRADIENT APPEARS
SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN A LIGHT BREEZE...SO WAS OPTIMISTIC WITH THE
TAFS... MAINTAINING CURRENT MVFR CONDITIONS AT SBN AND VFR AT FWA
THE REST OF THE NIGHT. SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-25KT THIS AFTN
AS RIDGE MOVES TO THE EAST AND A CDFNT CURRENTLY OVER THE NRN
PLAINS MOVES EAST TO THE UPR GRTLKS. SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
EXPECTED TO BE DRAWN BACK N-NE AHEAD OF THIS CDFNT CAUSING MVFR
CIGS TO MOVE INTO FWA THIS EVE AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WHILE JUST
SCT LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT AT SBN.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 425 PM EST MON NOV 14 2011/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
SEVERE POTENTIAL THROUGH EARLY EVENING WILL BE THE IMMEDIATE SHORT
TERM CONCERN...FOLLOWED BY TRANSITION TO COLDER TEMPERATURES AND
LAKE EFFECT PRECIP POTENTIAL FOR WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY.
SHORT WAVE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS HAS RAPIDLY TRACKED INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SFC WAVE RIDING
ALONG NORTHWARD MOVING WARM FRONT COMBINED WITH INCREASED
MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING HAS ALLOWED FOR SOLID LINE OF CONVECTION
TO DEVELOP ALONG A STRONG LOW LEVEL FRONTAL CONVERGENCE ZONE.
EXTREME DEEP LAYER SHEAR NOTED WITH 150 KNOT JET CORE PROGRESSING
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES...WITH 0 TO 6 KM DEEP LAYER SHEAR
VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 80 TO 100 KNOTS. A TIGHT INSTABILITY
GRADIENT IS ACCOMPANYING THE WARM FRONT WITH 20Z SPC RUC ANALYSIS
INDICATING BETWEEN 500-700 J/KG OF SFC BASED CAPE ACROSS SOUTHERN
THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE WARM FRONT HAS LIKELY REACHED ITS
FAR NORTHERN EXTENT BASED ON POSITIONING OF AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE
WAVE. SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS CAN BE APPROXIMATELY DELINEATED BY CURRENT POSITIONING OF SHARP
FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AXIS. COMBINATION OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY IS
MORE THAN AMPLE FOR CONTINUED LOW TOP SUPERCELLULAR FEATURES
EMBEDDED ALONG THE LINE...WITH PERIODIC BOWING SEGMENTS GIVEN THE
VERY STRONG FLOW ALOFT. THREAT OF SEVERE SHOULD SHIFT INTO EXTREME
SOUTHEAST AREAS OVER NEXT HOUR OR TWO...BEFORE EXITING THE
FORECAST AREA TOWARD 00Z.
COLD ADVECTION BEHIND SURFACE WAVE TONIGHT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
PARTICULARLY STRONG DUE TO MAINTENANCE OF LONG WAVE TROUGHING
ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL CONUS. APPROACH OF NEXT SFC TROUGH FROM THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS WILL ALLOW LOW LEVEL WINDS TO BACK AGAIN
LATE TONIGHT AND ON TUESDAY...WITH STRONG WARM ADVECTION
DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN DURING THE DAY. SOME LIMITED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURN IS POSSIBLE IN ADVANCE OF THIS WAVE TUESDAY NIGHT
ACROSS MAINLY FAR SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA. IN
ADDITION...APPROACHING LARGER SCALE UPPER TROUGH MAY ACT TO
ENHANCE SOME WEAK TO MODERATE MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. GIVEN THESE
FACTORS...DID ADD SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS EXTREME
SOUTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH GREATER CHANCES OF SHOWERS
REMAINING SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE UPPER
50S TO AROUND 60 EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH JUST SOME
PASSING MID CLOUDS EXPECTED.
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG LOW LEVEL
COLD ADVECTION ON WEDNESDAY. MODIFIED GFS BUFFER SOUNDINGS FOR
SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN CONDITIONS SUGGEST SUFFICIENT LAKE INDUCED
INSTABILITY FOR SCT SNOW SHOWER/FLURRY CHANCES. WILL KEEP PRECIP
TYPE AS SNOW SHOWERS FOR MAINLY EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN LOWER
MICHIGAN DUE TO A FAIRLY DRY SUBCLOUD LAYER. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FURTHER INLAND ON WEDNESDAY EVENING ACROSS MUCH
OF SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AS MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES. THE THERMAL ROLLER COASTER RIDE WILL CONTINUE BY
THE END OF THE WEEK AS A STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL
BRING LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGING BACK INTO THE REGION AND A
MODERATING TEMPERATURE TREND. THE NEXT STRONG EASTERN PACIFIC JET
WILL DIG INTO WESTERN CONUS FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR LONGWAVE
AMPLIFICATION...WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY SUPPORT RAIN SHOWER CHANCES
FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEKEND AS THIS TROUGH LIFTS ACROSS NORTHERN TIER
OF CONUS.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...MARSILI
AVIATION...JT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
416 AM EST TUE NOV 15 2011
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD BRIEFLY ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND MOVE TOWARD
THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MAINE ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE THIS TERM WILL BE THE SHOWERS AND TEMPERATURES.
LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWED 2 AREAS OF RAIN MOVING ACROSS THE REGION
W/ONE AREA ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE AND THE OTHER AREA MOVING ACROSS
DOWENAST AND EASTERN AREAS. WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES IS PASSING
ACROSS THE ST.LAWRENCE RIVER ATTM W/ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
PUSHING TOWARD WESTERN MAINE. A BLEND OF THE RUC AND NAM WAS USED
THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING W/TAKING SHOWER INTO NEW BRUNSWICK BY
15Z. THIS MATCHES UP WELL W/THE MID LEVEL FORCING EXITING THE
REGION BY 15Z AS IT LINES UP WELL W/THE RADAR ATTM. QPF FROM THIS
EVENT WILL BE AROUND .10-.15" AT BEST. MDL SOUNDINGS AND BUFKIT
PROFILES INDICATE THAT AIRMASS WILL DRY OUT ABOVE 850MBS ALLOWING
FOR MORE SUNSHINE. WSW WIND WILL TAKE HOLD LATER THIS MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION. THE NAM
HAS BACKED DOWN FROM ITS PREVIOUS FCSTS OF SHOWING SOME STRONGER
WINDS MIXING DOWN FROM 5K FT. THEREFORE...CUT BACK WIND GUSTS
TODAY TO AROUND 25 MPH ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA AS BOTH
THE GFS AND NAM SHOW LESS MIXING THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK CAA THROUGH
THE COLUMN TO TAKE HOLD THIS AFTERNOON AND W/A WESTERLY WIND IN
PLACE. THINKING HERE IS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE AS WARM AS
MET GUIDANCE IS SHOWING W/MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE NORTH AND
AROUND 60 FOR THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND DOWNEAST AREAS. A BLEND OF
THE MAV AND LAMP GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR TEMPERATURES WHICH SHOWS
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE NORTH AND MID TO UPPER 50S FOR
THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND DOWNEAST.
FOR TONIGHT...CLOUDS WILL GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AS HIGH
PRES RIDGES ACROSS THE CWA. THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS CLOUDS
FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WSW
LATER TONIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING BACK TOO
LOW. ONCE AGAIN, FOLLOWED THE GMOS AND LAMP GUIDANCE FOR THE MINS
WHICH SHOWED MID-UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTH AND CENTRAL AREAS
WHILE LOWER 40S WILL DO FOR THE DOWNEAST REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK TO OUR NORTH DURING WEDNESDAY...AS ANOTHER
WEAK DISTURBANCE TRACKS NORTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
COAST. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY BUT LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION...AS MOST OF THE MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN LOW REMAINS ACROSS QUEBEC...AND
MOISTURE WITH THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM REMAINS TO OUR SOUTH. WINDS
WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST DURING THURSDAY. ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MAY REACH THE
DOWNEAST COAST LATER THURSDAY AS THE LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST.
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL...THEN BE NEAR NORMAL ON
THURSDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING EAST ON FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH SATURDAY NIGHT AND
LIFT NORTHEAST EARLY SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT LATER SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ON MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR/MVFR EARLY TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR BY LATE
MORNING INTO TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM: MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SCA WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR BOTH WINDS AND SEAS W/THE
SCA MOST LIKELY BE TRANSITIONED TO HAZARDOUS SEAS BY LATER TODAY
INTO EARLY TONIGHT AS A SWELL HANGS ON. USED A NAM12/GFS BLEND FOR
THE WINDS W/KEEPS GUSTS TO 25 KTS EARLY AND THEN WINDS DIMINISH
W/HIGH PRES SETTLING IN. ADJUSTED THE SEAS DOWN BY A FOOT AS THE
LATEST OBS ARE RUNNING A FOOT TOO LOW THAN FCST.
SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS WEDNESDAY AND
TROUGH THURSDAY AND THEN POSSIBLY INCREASE TO SCA LEVELS THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...HEWITT
MARINE...HEWITT/DUDA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
1231 AM EST TUE NOV 15 2011
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH OF MAINE OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED
BY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
TOWARD THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MAINE ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND
SOMEWHAT COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR THE LATE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE: ADJUSTED THE POPS TO MATCH THE LATEST RADAR W/A SWATH OF
SHOWERS EXPANDING FROM INTERIOR DOWNEAST NORTHWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. THE RUC HAD THE BEST HANDLE BUT STILL OFF ON
THE PLACEMENT AS IT THROWS HIGHEST PERCENTAGES & QPF ACROSS THE
NORTH AND NORTHWEST THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED
UPWARD DUE TO INITIAL WAA SHOWN ON THE LATEST UA.
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
RAIN SHOWERS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD TONIGHT AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SLIDES ALONG A COLD FRONT THAT IS DRAPED JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST.
THIS WAVE IS MOVING VERY QUICKLY IN THE RAPID FLOW ALOFT...SO THIS
WILL BE A QUICK SHOT OF RAIN...STARTING LATE THIS EVENING AND
ENDING BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS WILL BE ACROSS
THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY WHICH IS CLOSEST TO THE LOW AND FRONT AND
THEREFORE THE BEST FORCING. RAINFALL TOTALS HERE WILL BE A QUARTER
TO A THIRD OF AN INCH...AND LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH
ELSEWHERE. THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE AND THE CONTINUING SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ON THE MILD SIDE ONCE
AGAIN AS LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50 IN MOST
LOCATIONS.
FOR TUESDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA EARLY TOMORROW AND SHOULD CLEAR THE STATE BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AS SUCH THE SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY COME TO AN END
AND SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. THE CONCERN FOR
TUESDAY IS GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. A LOW LEVEL JET
OF 40+ KT WILL BE OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. A SHOT OF COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW
THESE WINDS TO MIX TO THE SURFACE...SO EXPECT GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 MPH
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. SUNSET WILL CUT OFF THE BEST MIXING SO
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EVEN WITH
THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH HIGHS WILL BE VERY MILD ESPECIALLY
DOWNEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL MAX OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S IN
NORTHERN MAINE AND AROUND 60 IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WINDS SHOULD DECREASE FAIRLY QUICKLY TUE EVE AS SFC-500M LAPSE
RATES STABILIZE AND LLVL WINDS DECOUPLE FROM STRONGER WINDS ALF.
SKIES WILL BEGIN FAIR...WITH INCREASING HI/MID CLDS LATE TUE NGT.
THIS INCREASE IN CLDS AND THE BEGINNING OF WEAK RETURN SRLY FLOW
WILL LIKELY KEEP OVRNGT LOWS ONCE AGAIN FROM REACHING THE FZG PT
ACROSS THE FA.
WED...CLDS WILL OVRSPREAD MUCH OF THE FA DURG THE MORN HRS AS A
WEAK WV OF LOW PRES MOVES ENE OFF THE NJ COAST. THE 12Z OPNL GFS
AND ACCOMPANYING ENS MEAN RUNS HAVE BACKED OFF THE NWRD
PROGRESSION OF OVRRNG RNFL WED AFTN AND ERLY EVE FROM THE 00 AND
06Z RUNS. GIVEN THE LATEST OPNL 12Z ECMWF...WHICH IS FURTHER NW
WITH RN SHIELD CUTOFF THAN THE GFS...WE WILL HOLD THE LINE WITH
THE CURRENT DISTRIBUTION OF POPS FROM THE PREVIOUS ERLY MORN
UPDATE...IN WHICH WE SHOW CHC RN POPS NE AND CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA
AND LIKELY POPS OVR DOWNEAST AREAS FOR THESE PDS. ANY RN SHOULD
TAPER TO SHWRS LATE WED EVE AND END OVRNGT. INITIALLY...A MID LVL
DRY SLOT SHOULD BRING SOME CLRG TO MOST OF THE FA LATE WED NGT.
THU WILL BEGIN MSLY SUNNY FOR THE FA...WITH COLD ADVCN SC AND
POSSIBLE RN/SN SHWRS MOVG INTO SPCLY THE NW HLF OF THE FA FROM ERN
QB AS AN UPPER LVL TROF APCHS. AFTER REACHING OVRNGT LOWS LATE WED
NGT OF JUST BLO FZG N TO SIG ABV FZL S...HI TEMPS THU WILL BE KEPT
SOME 5 TO 10 DEG COOLER THAN WED DUE TO LLVL COLD ADVCN AND CLD CVR.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING TO OUR EAST WE SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT
FOR FRIDAY. THERE STILL COULD BE A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS
AROUND LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. CLOUDS WILL
BEGIN TO THIN OUT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN ON FRIDAY. FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING A WEAK
SHORTWAVE NORTH OF THE CWA. THIS COULD BE ENOUGH TO KICK OFF A FEW
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ALL DAY SATURDAY. WITH A STILL UNSETTLED
PATTERN SET UP OVER THE AREA EXPECT MORE SHOWERS ON SUNDAY. A
STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA AGAIN
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS AGAIN SHOULD BE SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH
TO BRING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THE
NORTHERN AREAS. AFTER THAT SYSTEM MOVES OUT HIGH PRESSURE MOVE IN
AGAIN MONDAY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO GO BACK TO MORE SEASONAL
READINGS DURING THE LONG RANGE PERIOD. USED A BLEND OF GFS AND
GMOS FOR THE PERIOD. FOR TEMPERATURES LEANED MORE ON RAW GFS GUIDE
DUE TO UNSETTLED PATTERN.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING...THEN ALL TERMINALS
DECREASING TO IFR/LIFR DUE TO LOW CEILINGS IN RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO VFR FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ALL SITES WILL BE VFR BY 16Z
WITH CLEARING SKIES THEREAFTER. WINDS BECOME GUSTY FROM THE WEST
FOLLOWING A FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY MORNING...WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 35
MPH EXPECTED.
SHORT TERM: MSLY VFR TUE NGT INTO WED MORN...WITH SRN TAF SITES
AND POSSIBLY KHUL BECOMING MVFR WED AFT INTO WED EVE IN CLGS AND
POSSIBLY VSBY WITH LGT RN. ALL SITES BECOME VFR LATE WED NGT AND
THU MORN...WITH NRN TAF SITES BECOMING MVFR WITH BKN-OVC COLD
ADVCN SC CLD CVR MIDDAY THU INTO FRI MORN. ALL TAF SITES VFR AGAIN
MIDDAY FRI INTO FRI EVE...WITH NRN TAF SITES POSSIBLY BECOMING
MVFR VERY LATE FRI INTO SAT MORN IN LGT OVRRNG PRECIP.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL REMAIN AT 15-25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE TONIGHT...THEN A
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
DECREASE LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
SHORT TERM: SCA FOR AT LEAST SEAS WILL BE NEEDED TUE NGT AS WINDS
DROP BLO SCA CRITERIA. THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR SCA CONDITIONS
WILL BE LATE WED NGT INTO THU WITH THE NW PRES GRAD WINDS BEHIND
THE DEPARTING LOW MOVG ENE FROM THE SRN GULF OF ME INTO THE OPEN
ATLC. WE USED A BLEND OF NAM12 AND GFS40 FOR WINDS AND KEPT CLOSE
TO WW3 FOR THIS PTN OF THE FCST.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS FORT WORTH TX
1122 PM CST MON NOV 14 2011
.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/
CONCERNS...THUNDERSTORM TIMING AND LOW CEILINGS.
SOME WEAK CONVECTION DEVELOPED NEAR FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTHWEST OF
TAF SITES...BUT MAIN CONVECTION HAS FORMED WITHIN FAVORED AREA
INVOF MNZ-DAL-SLR. WITH MEAGER CAPE VALUES AND MARGINAL MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES...SHOWERS WILL LIKELY OUTNUMBER THUNDERSTORMS. THOSE
STORMS THAT OCCUR ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE. CELLS WILL
TRAIN...BUT RAINFALL WILL GENERALLY BE UNDER 1/2 INCH PER HOUR AT
TAF SITES. MAINTAINING 06-10Z (MIDNIGHT-4 AM CST) AS PRIMARY
WINDOW FOR THUNDER AT METRO TAF SITES. ADJUSTED WACO TO FOCUS
THUNDER WITHIN 08-13Z (2-7 AM CST) TIME FRAME.
CEILINGS WILL LIKELY DETERIORATE WITH PROLONGED PRECIPITATION...
AND 06Z TAFS WILL SHOW A GRADUAL LOWERING THROUGH DAYBREAK. (HAVE
REMOVED IFR TEMPO FROM TAFACT.) CEILINGS WILL RECOVER TO VFR BY
MIDDAY AS PRECIP AREA MOVES EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR.
25
&&
.UPDATE...
THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE RUC HAVE KEPT MOST OF THE RAIN
SOUTHEAST OF A BONHAM...WAXAHACHIE...LAMPASAS LINE. THE 00Z RUN
OF THE NAM ALSO KEEPS MOST OF THE RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
HALF OF NORTH TEXAS. THE WORKSTATION WRF AND HIGH RESOLUTION
RAPID REFRESH...INDICATE BETTER CHANCES FARTHER WEST...GENERALLY
SOUTHEAST OF A SHERMAN TO CISCO LINE. HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS
TO THE POPS TONIGHT...PLACING THE BEST CHANCES ALONG A BAND FROM
BONHAM AND PARIS SOUTHWEST TO LAMPASAS AND CAMERON....WITH LOWER
CHANCES TO THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST.
HAVE LEFT THE POPS AS IS FOR TUESDAY...AS MOST AREAS SOUTHEAST OF
A SHERMAN TO COMANCHE LINE SHOULD SEE SOME RAIN...THOUGH THE
HEAVIER AMOUNTS WILL BE EAST OF A BONHAM...HILLSBORO...LAMPASAS
LINE.
58
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM CST MON NOV 14 2011/
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO WILL APPROACH WEST TEXAS
TONIGHT AND MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE TOMORROW. HIGH
CLOUDS HAVE BEEN STREAMING OVERHEAD FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO ENVELOP THE REGION
TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
INCREASE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO
+DEVELOP THIS EVENING AS HEIGHTS FALL AND UVVS BECOME PRONOUNCED IN
ADVANCE OF THE UPPER LOW. FOR THIS EVENING IT APPEARS THAT SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE MAINLY SCATTERED IN NATURE AND BEGIN AROUND
THE 8-10 PM TIME.
MEANWHILE A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY NEAR THE RED RIVER WILL UNDERGO
COLD FRONTOGENESIS TONIGHT AS IT SHIFTS SOUTH AND DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE REGION. WE EXPECT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE
BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE PRIMARILY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
PARIS TO COMANCHE IN HIGHEST MOISTURE REGION...ROUGHLY NEAR AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST LOCATION OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY.
INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL WITH SB CAPE APPROACHING 1000
J/KG...WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL APPROACH 50 KT DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR A FEW SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN
THREAT LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE
STORMS WILL LIKELY OCCUR OVER EAST AND SOUTHEAST COUNTIES AFTER
MIDNIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
TORNADO AS 0-3 KM SR HELICITY MAY OCCASIONALLY EXCEED 100 BUT THE
THREAT SHOULD BE RATHER LOW.
THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IF
TRAINING STORMS BECOME AN ISSUE. MODEL QPF AND HPC GUIDANCE DO SHOW
SOME POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TOTALS ABOVE 3 INCHES OVER THE EASTERN
AND SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES...MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20. PW
FORECASTS HAVE LIKEWISE INCREASED SOME SO WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THE
FLOOD THREAT AND MONITOR THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM. FOR NOW IT
LOOKS LIKE 1-2 INCH TOTALS ARE MORE LIKELY OVER THE SOUTHEAST WITH
LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS. EXPECT OVERALL RAINFALL TOTALS TO
DECREASE AS YOU APPROACH THE RED RIVER WITH THE LOWEST STORM
TOTAL AMOUNTS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN MOST COUNTIES.
ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE STATE ALONG WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW TOMORROW EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE REGION. COOLER DRIER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. A WARM-UP WILL THEN OCCUR THIS WEEKEND AS
RETURN FLOW BECOMES REESTABLISHED. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY BRING A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEKEND OR
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
30
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 65 73 52 65 41 / 50 60 20 0 0
WACO, TX 65 73 52 69 41 / 60 80 10 0 0
PARIS, TX 65 71 51 62 37 / 70 80 60 10 0
DENTON, TX 63 73 46 64 37 / 40 50 20 0 0
MCKINNEY, TX 64 72 49 63 37 / 50 70 40 5 0
DALLAS, TX 66 72 53 66 41 / 50 70 30 0 0
TERRELL, TX 66 71 53 67 39 / 60 80 40 5 0
CORSICANA, TX 67 72 52 69 42 / 60 80 30 5 0
TEMPLE, TX 66 74 55 72 42 / 60 80 10 0 0
MINERAL WELLS, TX 60 73 45 64 35 / 40 40 10 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
25/58
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...
NWS TALLAHASSEE FL
1020 AM EST Tue Nov 15 2011
.Update...
14Z water vapor and H4 RUC analysis shows an upper level pattern
dominated by broad troughing across much of the CONUS. Our forecast
area resides on the boundary between this troughing and an upper
ridge axis over the FL Peninsula. This ridge axis will suppressed
further south and east over the next 24 hours. Other features of
note include a shortwave impulse embedded within the main flow over
Texas, and a series of weaker impulses working down the backside of
the trough over the inter-mountain west. 12Z KTLH sounding shows a
slowly moistening but still generally stable profile. PW has risen
to over 1.1" this morning, but we continue to see departing
influence of the upper ridge above the surface. Fairly deep layer
between 800-700mb showing an essentially isothermal/stable profile.
This profiles suggests that rain chances will remain near zero
through the afternoon, especially over the eastern half of the
area.
At the surface, subtropical ridge axis extends from off the GA/NE FL
coast westward along the I-10 corridor. To our north and west we
find a quasi-stationary frontal boundary extending across Arkansas
and the Tennessee Valley.
Areas of fog/lower stratus have been rather stubborn over the
eastern half of area this morning, and also over our far western
zones. The lower sun angle this time of year has slowed the process
of mixing this layer out, but should see more and more sunny breaks
developing as we head toward midday.
Through the afternoon, a mix of sun and clouds expected with
temperatures into the upper 70s/low 80s for most locations.
Tonight, shortwave impulse over Texas will shear out as it lifts
northeastward across the lower MS valley. Although this energy will
be de-amplifying, the combination of modest overspreading synoptic
support and a WAA regime should be enough to support widely sct-sct
showers breaking out over the western half of the area. The threat
for a few showers or storms will begin to expand eastward as we
approach sunrise. Southerly flow and increasing moisture will result
in a warm overnight for mid-November. Current grids show low temps
in the mid 60s inland and upper 60s coast. See little reason to make
significant changes at this time.
&&
.AVIATION...
Fog and low CIGS have been very slow to burn off this morning (with
conditions at KTLH actually deteriorating). IFR VSBY should improve
into the afternoon. However, low CIGS at KVLD will be slower to
improve underneath n-s oriented cloud band. Ahead of approaching
cold front, guidance in very good agreement that VSBYS and CIGS will
again begin to further drop after 04Z tonight with MVFR at most
sites and likely remain at IFR/LIFR cigs and possibly VSBYS after
06Z at all sites. Will introduce prob30 for shwrs after midnight at
DHN and TEMPO for DHN/ABY/ECP near sunrise Wed. Near calm winds
will increase to 5 to 10 mph aft 14z with higher gusts especially at
ECP and ABY. Winds will decrease after sunset but remain around 5
mph thru rest of period.
&&
.MARINE...Southeasterly to southerly winds will continue into
Wednesday ahead of the cold front. These winds could briefly
approach cautionary levels on Wednesday afternoon as the frontal
boundary nears the marine area. A period of advisory conditions
appears likely behind the cold front on Thursday. These elevated
winds and seas are expected to persist into Saturday when the
pressure gradient will finally weaken allowing winds to diminish.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 81 66 80 63 76 / 10 20 30 50 10
Panama City 76 68 77 63 73 / 20 30 40 40 0
Dothan 82 65 81 59 71 / 20 40 50 40 0
Albany 83 65 81 60 72 / 10 30 40 40 0
Valdosta 82 65 82 65 75 / 10 10 30 50 10
Cross City 81 64 79 65 78 / 10 10 30 40 20
Apalachicola 75 68 75 66 75 / 10 20 30 40 10
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
GA...None.
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
MROCZKA/CAMP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
930 AM EST TUE NOV 15 2011
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD BRIEFLY ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND MOVE TOWARD
THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MAINE ON WEDNESDAY.&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE 2: NOT MANY CHGS FROM PREV FCST ATTM...WITH RADAR INDICATING
THE BACK EDGE OF SHWRS ABOUT READY TO EXIT INTO NB PROV. ONE
CONCERN IS HOW MUCH SUNSHINE THE FA WILL RECEIVE THIS AFTN WITH
THE CURRENT FCST OF BECOMING MSLY SUNNY SOMEWHAT IN JEOPARDY WITH
THE BACK EDGE OF A BAND OF HI/MID CLDS NOT MOVG VERY QUICKLY EWRD
FROM THE ST LAWRENCE RVR...DESPITE THE EROSION OF LOW CLDS XPCTD
BY AFTN WITHE DRIER AIR ARRIVING BEHIND THE WEAK COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY CLRG THE FA. WILL HOLD ON FOR NOW...BUT MAY NEED TO MAKE
ADJUSTMENTS FOR THE MIDDAY UPDATE. OTHERWISE...WE INCORPORATED
LATEST HRLY SFC TEMPS AND MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO FCST AFTN HI
TEMPS.
UPDATE 1: ADJUSTED THE POPS FURTHER EAST W/THE HIGHEST POPS IN NEW
BRUNSWICK. TEMPERATURES WERE TWEAKED TO MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS.
06-12Z QPF WAS ADJUSTED DOWNWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE BASED
ON THE LATEST REPORTS.
ORGNL DISC: LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWED 2 AREAS OF RAIN MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION W/ONE AREA ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE AND THE OTHER AREA MOVING
ACROSS DOWNEAST AND EASTERN AREAS. WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES IS
PASSING ACROSS THE ST.LAWRENCE RIVER ATTM W/ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT PUSHING TOWARD WESTERN MAINE. A BLEND OF THE RUC AND NAM WAS
USED THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING W/TAKING SHOWER INTO NEW BRUNSWICK
BY 15Z. THIS MATCHES UP WELL W/THE MID LEVEL FORCING EXITING THE
REGION BY 15Z AS IT LINES UP WELL W/THE RADAR ATTM. QPF FROM THIS
EVENT WILL BE AROUND .10-.15" AT BEST. MDL SOUNDINGS AND BUFKIT
PROFILES INDICATE THAT AIRMASS WILL DRY OUT ABOVE 850MBS ALLOWING
FOR MORE SUNSHINE. WSW WIND WILL TAKE HOLD LATER THIS MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION. THE NAM
HAS BACKED DOWN FROM ITS PREVIOUS FCSTS OF SHOWING SOME STRONGER
WINDS MIXING DOWN FROM 5K FT. THEREFORE...CUT BACK WIND GUSTS
TODAY TO AROUND 25 MPH ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA AS BOTH
THE GFS AND NAM SHOW LESS MIXING THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK CAA THROUGH
THE COLUMN TO TAKE HOLD THIS AFTERNOON AND W/A WESTERLY WIND IN
PLACE. THINKING HERE IS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE AS WARM AS
MET GUIDANCE IS SHOWING W/MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE NORTH AND
AROUND 60 FOR THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND DOWNEAST AREAS. A BLEND OF
THE MAV AND LAMP GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR TEMPERATURES WHICH SHOWS
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE NORTH AND MID TO UPPER 50S FOR
THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND DOWNEAST.
FOR TONIGHT...CLOUDS WILL GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AS HIGH
PRES RIDGES ACROSS THE CWA. THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS CLOUDS
FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WSW
LATER TONIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING BACK TOO
LOW. ONCE AGAIN, FOLLOWED THE GMOS AND LAMP GUIDANCE FOR THE MINS
WHICH SHOWED MID-UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTH AND CENTRAL AREAS
WHILE LOWER 40S WILL DO FOR THE DOWNEAST REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK TO OUR NORTH DURING WEDNESDAY...AS ANOTHER
WEAK DISTURBANCE TRACKS NORTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
COAST. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY BUT LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION...AS MOST OF THE MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN LOW REMAINS ACROSS QUEBEC...AND
MOISTURE WITH THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM REMAINS TO OUR SOUTH. WINDS
WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST DURING THURSDAY. ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MAY REACH THE
DOWNEAST COAST LATER THURSDAY AS THE LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST.
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL...THEN BE NEAR NORMAL ON
THURSDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING EAST ON FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH SATURDAY NIGHT AND
LIFT NORTHEAST EARLY SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT LATER SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ON MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR/MVFR EARLY TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR BY LATE
MORNING INTO TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM: MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SCA WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR BOTH WINDS AND SEAS W/THE
SCA MOST LIKELY BE TRANSITIONED TO HAZARDOUS SEAS BY LATER TODAY
INTO EARLY TONIGHT AS A SWELL HANGS ON. USED A NAM12/GFS BLEND FOR
THE WINDS W/KEEPS GUSTS TO 25 KTS EARLY AND THEN WINDS DIMINISH
W/HIGH PRES SETTLING IN. ADJUSTED THE SEAS DOWN BY A FOOT AS THE
LATEST OBS ARE RUNNING A FOOT TOO LOW THAN FCST.
SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS WEDNESDAY AND
TROUGH THURSDAY AND THEN POSSIBLY INCREASE TO SCA LEVELS THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...VJN
MARINE...VJN/DUDA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
634 AM EST TUE NOV 15 2011
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD BRIEFLY ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND MOVE TOWARD
THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MAINE ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
.UPDATE...
ADJUSTED THE POPS FURTHER EAST W/THE HIGHEST POPS IN
NEW BRUNSWICK. TEMPERATURES WERE TWEAKED TO MATCH CURRENT
CONDITIONS. 06-12Z QPF WAS ADJUSTED DOWNWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE BASED ON THE LATEST REPORTS.
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWED 2 AREAS OF RAIN MOVING ACROSS THE REGION
W/ONE AREA ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE AND THE OTHER AREA MOVING ACROSS
DOWNEAST AND EASTERN AREAS. WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES IS PASSING
ACROSS THE ST.LAWRENCE RIVER ATTM W/ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
PUSHING TOWARD WESTERN MAINE. A BLEND OF THE RUC AND NAM WAS USED
THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING W/TAKING SHOWER INTO NEW BRUNSWICK BY
15Z. THIS MATCHES UP WELL W/THE MID LEVEL FORCING EXITING THE
REGION BY 15Z AS IT LINES UP WELL W/THE RADAR ATTM. QPF FROM THIS
EVENT WILL BE AROUND .10-.15" AT BEST. MDL SOUNDINGS AND BUFKIT
PROFILES INDICATE THAT AIRMASS WILL DRY OUT ABOVE 850MBS ALLOWING
FOR MORE SUNSHINE. WSW WIND WILL TAKE HOLD LATER THIS MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION. THE NAM
HAS BACKED DOWN FROM ITS PREVIOUS FCSTS OF SHOWING SOME STRONGER
WINDS MIXING DOWN FROM 5K FT. THEREFORE...CUT BACK WIND GUSTS
TODAY TO AROUND 25 MPH ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA AS BOTH
THE GFS AND NAM SHOW LESS MIXING THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK CAA THROUGH
THE COLUMN TO TAKE HOLD THIS AFTERNOON AND W/A WESTERLY WIND IN
PLACE. THINKING HERE IS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE AS WARM AS
MET GUIDANCE IS SHOWING W/MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE NORTH AND
AROUND 60 FOR THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND DOWNEAST AREAS. A BLEND OF
THE MAV AND LAMP GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR TEMPERATURES WHICH SHOWS
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE NORTH AND MID TO UPPER 50S FOR
THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND DOWNEAST.
FOR TONIGHT...CLOUDS WILL GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AS HIGH
PRES RIDGES ACROSS THE CWA. THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS CLOUDS
FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WSW
LATER TONIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING BACK TOO
LOW. ONCE AGAIN, FOLLOWED THE GMOS AND LAMP GUIDANCE FOR THE MINS
WHICH SHOWED MID-UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTH AND CENTRAL AREAS
WHILE LOWER 40S WILL DO FOR THE DOWNEAST REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK TO OUR NORTH DURING WEDNESDAY...AS ANOTHER
WEAK DISTURBANCE TRACKS NORTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
COAST. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY BUT LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION...AS MOST OF THE MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN LOW REMAINS ACROSS QUEBEC...AND
MOISTURE WITH THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM REMAINS TO OUR SOUTH. WINDS
WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST DURING THURSDAY. ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MAY REACH THE
DOWNEAST COAST LATER THURSDAY AS THE LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST.
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL...THEN BE NEAR NORMAL ON
THURSDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING EAST ON FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH SATURDAY NIGHT AND
LIFT NORTHEAST EARLY SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT LATER SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ON MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR/MVFR EARLY TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR BY LATE
MORNING INTO TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM: MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SCA WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR BOTH WINDS AND SEAS W/THE
SCA MOST LIKELY BE TRANSITIONED TO HAZARDOUS SEAS BY LATER TODAY
INTO EARLY TONIGHT AS A SWELL HANGS ON. USED A NAM12/GFS BLEND FOR
THE WINDS W/KEEPS GUSTS TO 25 KTS EARLY AND THEN WINDS DIMINISH
W/HIGH PRES SETTLING IN. ADJUSTED THE SEAS DOWN BY A FOOT AS THE
LATEST OBS ARE RUNNING A FOOT TOO LOW THAN FCST.
SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS WEDNESDAY AND
TROUGH THURSDAY AND THEN POSSIBLY INCREASE TO SCA LEVELS THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...HEWITT
MARINE...HEWITT/DUDA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
600 AM CST TUE NOV 15 2011
.UPDATE...
12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION ADDED BELOW.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE AND A TRAILING COLD FRONT OVER WESTERN MINNESOTA WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING. A SECOND AND STRONGER COLD
FRONT OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. TWO PRECIPITATION THREATS EXIST TODAY. THE FIRST
IS OVER SE MN AND PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL WI THIS MORNING WHERE
STRONG WAA AND ADIABATIC OMEGA ARE MOVING THROUGH. ADDED SCATTERED
SPRINKLES THROUGH MID MORNING FOR THESE AREA. THE OTHER AREA FOR
PRECIPITATION TODAY IS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN CWA AHEAD OF A
POTENT SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. ALTHOUGH QUITE A BIT
OF VARIANCE EXISTS BETWEEN MODEL SOLUTIONS ON THE LOCATION OF THE
PRECIPITATION...THERE IS AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON...AND SMALL POPS WERE
ADDED. NAM BEST LI BECOMING MORE NEGATIVE WITH TIME FOR THIS
AFTERNOON JUST NORTH OF OUR MN CWA...SO SOME LIGHTNING CAN/T BE
RULED OUT. THE PRECIPITATION THREAT WILL END EARLY THIS EVENING
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WI.
STRONG WEST WINDS WILL ALSO DEVELOP TODAY IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONTS. STRONG CAA IS SEEN THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE MN RIVER
VALLEY. IN ADDITION...SIMULATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS EXTREME
DRYING ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN MINNESOTA ALONG WITH A PV BOOT. LOW
LEVEL WINDS ARE WELL ALIGNED IN THE VERTICAL WITH THE NAM/GFS
BUFKIT PROFILE DATA INDICATING ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES TO AT LEAST
750 MB. 200FT WINDS ARE NEAR 30 KNOTS WITH MID LEVEL MOMENTUM
TRANSFER REACHING THE UPPER 30 KNOT RANGE. TOP OF THE CHANNEL HITS
45 KNOTS. HENCE...A WIND ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR MUCH OF WEST
CENTRAL THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL MN.
IT WILL BE COLDER FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE SOME
CLOUDINESS ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND CLEARING FOR
THURSDAY. CLOUDS WILL COME BACK ON FRIDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. GEM/GFS/ECMWF TRACK
THE LOW FROM WESTERN IA TO CENTRAL WI SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ITS A RATHER FAST MOVING SYSTEM WITH AN OPEN WAVE ALOFT.
BEST FORCING AND DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE WOULD FAVOR AREAS OF
CENTRAL MN FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ATTM. LIKELY POPS ARE NOW IN
PLACE. THE WEEKEND WILL END COLD WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD.
LITTLE PRECIPITATION IS SEEN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION.../12Z TAF ISSUANCE/
RATHER MUDDY UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THIS PERIOD...WITH
BOUTS OF MAINLY MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.
MORNING WAA PRECIP OVER CENTRAL MN AND SE MN MAY BRING A SPRINKLE
OR TWO TO AXN/EAU. OTHERWISE...CENTRAL MN BAND OF FORCING WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE TERMINALS...WHILE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH WAA
HEADING FOR EAU WILL BE MOSTLY VIRGA. STRONG WAVE OVER NODAK WILL
BRING ANOTHER SHOT AT SEEING PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON TO MAINLY
CENTRAL MN. AXN LOOKS TO BE CLOSEST TO UPPER FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS WAVE...SO INCLUDED TEMPO PRECIP MENTION ONLY THERE...BUT
COULD SEE ACTIVITY DIP AS FAR SOUTH AS STC/RNH. STRONG WINDS FOR
TODAY STILL LOOKS LIKE A CERTAINTY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS MN.
HOWEVER...FRONT MOVING TROUGH A BIT SLOWER THAN WHAT WAS
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. GFSLAMP/HRRR/LOCAL WRF ALL SIMILAR WITH WIND
FORECAST TODAY...SO FOLLOWED THOSE FOR TIMING DIRECTION SHIFTS
ACROSS THE AREA. STRONGEST WINDS TODAY LOOK TO BE DOWN THE MN
RIVER FROM WEST CENTRAL INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MN...WITH GUSTINESS
LIKELY BEING LIMITED OVER WRN WI...WHERE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOKS
TO REMAIN BAGGY UNTIL THIS EVENING.
KMSP...WINDS BACKED QUITE A BIT MORE THAN EXPECTED OUT AHEAD OF
THE PRESSURE TROUGH/FRONT OVERNIGHT. GFSLAMP WIND FORECAST LOOKED
REASONABLE THIS MORNING...AND HAD SUPPORT FROM HRRR AND LOCAL WRF
HIGH RES MODEL RUNS...SO STUCK CLOSE TO IT FOR THE WIND FORECAST.
KEPT WIND SPEEDS AS IS...AS HRRR WOULD INDICATE STRONG NODAK WAVE
WILL HAVE A WEAK LOW MOVE ACROSS WITH IT...POSSIBLY SUPPRESSING
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WINDS OVER ERN MN UNTIL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP...BUT THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE
THAT A SHOWER COULD PASS THROUGH BETWEEN 20Z AND 23Z AS THE NODAK
WAVE MOVES THROUGH...BUT EXPECTING BEST PRECIP CHANCES TO REMAIN
NORTH.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON
FOR BLUE EARTH-BROWN-CHIPPEWA-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-LAC QUI
PARLE-LE SUEUR-MARTIN-NICOLLET-REDWOOD-RENVILLE-SIBLEY-
STEELE-STEVENS-SWIFT-WASECA-WATONWAN-YELLOW MEDICINE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
RAH/MPG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1002 AM EST TUE NOV 15 2011
.SYNOPSIS...
AN ELONGATED FRONTAL ZONE AND MOISTURE AXIS STRETCHING FROM TEXAS
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY INTO NEW ENGLAND WILL REMAIN
THE FOCUS FOR LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH
TONIGHT...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE COMMONWEALTH.
SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDE ALONG THE FRONT THROUGH THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD FROM THE PLAINS WILL RETURN FAIR
WEATHER TO THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. UNSEASONABLY MILD
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL COOL OFF TO BELOW NORMALS FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...BUT WARMER WEATHER SHOULD RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
STEADY BUT VERY LIGHT RAIN NOW DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE
LAST FEW HOURS. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE PER HRRR AND NEWEST
NAM12. RUC EVEN DRIER THAN THESE TWO...BUT WILL HOLD HIGH POPS IN
FOR THE LIGHT PRECIP THRU THE EARLY AFTN. THE RAIN SHOULD SHRIVEL
IN PLACE AND MAY NOT CREATE MORE THAN SPRINKLES IN THE SERN CWA.
THE NRN TIER SHOULD BE DRY...BUT WILL HOLD JUST ISOLD POPS THERE
WITH ECHOES CURRENTLY ON RADAR JUST S OF KBFD.
ANOTHER DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME HIGHS TODAY AS WE ARE ALREADY
ABOVE NORMAL MAXES AT 9 AM. MID 50S NW TO MID 60S SE...ABOUT 10
DEGREES OR SO ABOVE MID-NOVEMBER CLIMATOLOGY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
THERE SHOULD BE A RELATIVE LULL IN THE PCPN EARLY TONIGHT /APPROX
00-06Z/ WITH POPS INCREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT ESPECIALLY ACRS THE
SOUTHERN TIER. THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY INITIALLY
DRAPED OVER THE OH RIVER VALLEY WILL SETTLE SEWD INTO VA...AS A
SFC WAVE RIDES NEWD ALONG THE FRONT. THERE ARE SOME DIFFS WITH THE
TRACK OF THE WAVE...BUT OVERALL THERE IS A STRONG CONSENSUS
SUPPORTING CATG POPS IN THE SOUTH IN THE 06-12Z TIME FRAME. MDL
DIAG FROM HPC FAVORS A MORE SUPPRESSED NAM/GFS TRACK VS. THE OTHER
GUIDANCE GIVEN PROGRESSIVE FLOW UPSTREAM AND CONFLUENCE IN THE
AREA WHERE THE SYS IS MOVING INTO. WHILE THERE WILL BE A
RESURGENCE IN PWATS...THE BEST DEEP LAYER MSTR AND H85 MSTR FLUX
IS PROGGED TO STAY S OF THE TURNPIKE. THE SOMEWHAT LIMITED MSTR
AVAILABILITY WILL ONLY SUPPORT A STRIPE OF 0.25-0.50 INCH AMTS OVR
THE SRN TIER...BRINGING THE 24 HOUR TOTAL TO 0.5-1 INCH IN THIS
AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL DIVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GREAT
LAKES ON WEDNESDAY AS A WAVE RIPPLES ALONG THE NEARLY STATIONARY
FRONT DRAPED SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE. THIS WILL KEEP CLOUDS
AND RAIN CHANCES MOST CONCENTRATED ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE TURNPIKE
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH EAST CENTRAL PA THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
BEFORE COLDER AIR ARRIVES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...BRINGING
A PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES TO CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS.
A LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF SNOW STILL APPEARS LIKELY OVER THE
SNOWBELT AREAS...AS 850 MB TEMPS PLUNGE TO AROUND -8C BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND OVER-LAKE TRAJECTORIES ARE FAVORABLE FOR LAKE BANDING.
TEMPERATURES MODERATE BACK TOWARD NORMAL THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...AS RETURN FLOW AROUND THE TRANSIENT SOUTHEASTERN
US/WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE LIMITS THE SOUTHWARD PENETRATION OF THE
FRONT.
AS THE UPPER TROUGH BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN US LATER THIS
WEEK...THE SOUTHEASTERN RIDGE SHOULD PUSH WARMER AIR INTO OUR
REGION SATURDAY. THE 850 HPA TEMPERATURES ARE PREDICTED TO BE 1SD
ABOVE NORMAL LATE SATURDAY ACROSS THE NW PART OF THE STATE...AND
AREA- WIDE ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES WITH THE NEXT
CHC FOR SHOWERS LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA INDICATES SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT AT
ALL TAF LOCATIONS. ONLY MVFR IS LEFT AT KIPT. THE PRECIP SHOULD
CONTINUE TO BREAK UP AND BECOME LIGHTER IN PLACE WITH LITTLE N-S
MOVEMENT OF THE ECHOES THIS AFTN.
THE OLD FRONT IS JUST TO THE S OF THE STATE THIS MORNING. A SERIES
OF FRONTAL WAVES WILL FORM ALONG/EAST OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
BRINGING MORE UNSETTLED WX TO THE REGION LATER TNT THRU WED
/ESPECIALLY THE SRN AIRFIELDS/. NWLY FLOW WILL LKLY BRING LOW CIGS
AND SOME -SHSN INTO THE WESTERN TAFS ON THURSDAY GIVEN COLDER
DOWNWIND LAKE TRAJECTORIES. ELSEWHERE VFR CONDS SHOULD PREVAIL FM
THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
OUTLOOK...
THUR...MVFR-IFR WEST...BCMG VFR EAST. GUSTY NW WINDS.
FRI-SAT...VFR.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/GARTNER
AVIATION...DANGELO/STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1243 PM EST TUE NOV 15 2011
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE ADIRONDACKS SOUTHWEST TO CENTRAL INDIANA
WILL SLIDE DOWN INTO SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF NEW JERSEY AND PENNSYLVANIA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THEN A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE
ALONG THE FRONT PASSING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BETWEEN LATE
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. THEREAFTER HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT ARRIVES IN VIRGINIA FRIDAY...
MOVING OUT TO SEA DURING THE WEEKEND. A SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA EARLY NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHOWERS TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A
SLOW MOVING FRONT CONTINUE TO MAINLY BE FOCUSED TO OUR
NORTHWEST.THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE
SE AND BRING CLOUDS AND SCAT SPRINKLES TO THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS DOWN TO BETTER REFLECT RADAR TRENDS
THAT KEEP THE MAJORITY OF THIS ACTIVITY TO OUR NORTHWEST. THIS
MATCHES WELL THE SREF AND LATEST RUC MODEL RUNS. ALSO LOWERED
DEWPOINTS SOME TO BETTER MATCH WITH CURRENT OBSERVATION PERHAPS
EVEN A TOUCH TO LOW IN SPOTS. CLOUDS WILL HOLD READINGS IN THE 60S
IN MOST OF THE REST OF THE REGION WITH UPPER 50S OVER THE SRN
POCONOS. THESE READINGS ARE STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID
NOVEMBER. WINDS WILL MOSTLY BE SW OR S EARLY TODAY THEN SWITCH TO
MORE OF A WRLY DIRECTION BY EVENING. CURRENT THINKING IS
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE
FRONT WILL NOT ENTER THE REGION TILL AFTER 00Z WHICH MATCHES UP
WELL WITH MODEL TIMING. OVERALL QPF ALSO LOOKS QUITE LIGHT TODAY
PERHAPS A FEW HUNDREDTHS WEST AND NORTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
THE FRONT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA WHILE A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES ALONG IT TONIGHT. THE APPROACHING LOW WILL ENHANCE THE CHC FOR
RAIN TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY LATE. QPF TOTALS OF UP TO ONE-HALF INCH
MAY OCCUR TONIGHT WITH MOST OF IT AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WERE
MOSTLY LIFTED FROM THE NAM-MOS WITH 50S OVER MOST AREAS AND SOME
UPPER 40S OVER THE SRN POCONOS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A BRIEFLY SHARPENING TROUGH ALOFT MOVES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST USA THURSDAY WITH
RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE UNITED STATES
THIS WEEKEND. THAT WARM RIDGE WILL WEAKEN NEXT WEEK AS DISTURBANCES
MOVE NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE NORTHEAST USA.
A SEE SAW TEMPERATURE REGIME WILL PREVAIL THIS EXTENDED PERIOD WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY SLIDING TO BELOW NORMAL BY FRIDAY
THEN ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY BEFORE POSSIBLY COOLING EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE 16 DAY DRY SPELL THAT BEGAN OCTOBER 30 IS ABOUT TO COME TO A
RATHER WET ENDING. BLAKESLEE IN CARBON COUNTY PA REPORTED .05
YESTERDAY FROM THE MIDDAY MONDAY SHOWERS THAT GRAZED THE POCONOS
AND THE TIP OF NNJ.
NOW YOU SEE THE MOISTURE PLUME FROM TEXAS THRU THE OHIO VALLEY INTO
THE NORTHEAST USA. THE SLOWLY EVOLVING TROUGH INTO THE GREAT
LAKES THE NEXT 48 HOURS WILL HAVE RIPPLES OF ENERGY ALONG THE JET
STREAM CAUSING PERIODS OF HEAVY SHOWERS WITHIN THE MOIST PLUME.
THE DAILIES BELOW...
WEDNESDAY...HPC QPF...A PERIOD OF HEAVY SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY IN
THE MORNING. DID NOT CONVERT THE ELEMENT RAIN BACK TO SHOWERS BUT
SEE QUITE A BIT OF VARIABILITY IN INTENSITY THRU THE DAY AS WELL
AS POSSIBLY SEVERAL HRS OF NO RAIN. ONE OF THE PROBLEMS IS THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM BISECTING THE FCST AREA...ROUGHLY NEAR THE I95
CORRIDOR. COOLER TO THE NORTHWEST BUT IT COULD BE QUITE MILD AND
UNSTABLE JUST TO THE SE AND COULD SEE THUNDER IN DE COASTAL SE NJ
THAT MIGHT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT STATEMENTS OR AN SMW. THE
MODEL CAMPS ARE NCEP VS ALL THE OTHERS AND AM SIDING WITH ALL THE
OTHERS IN THIS SCENARIO....ESPECIALLY UK/ECMWF. TEMPS MAY SOAR
INTO THE 70S FOR A TIME WED MIDDAY IN SRN DE. ALL FCST ELEMENTS ON
WEDNESDAY WERE 50/50 NCEP MOS THEN BLENDED 50 PCT WITH THE RGEM
WHICH REPRESENTED THE WARMER MORE UNSTABLE SCENARIOS DEPICTED BY
THE ECMWF/UKMET/GGEM AND RGEM.
HOW FAST DOES THE RAIN END IN THE NW PORTION OF THE FCST AREA WED
NIGHT. UP FOR DEBATE AND AM NOT BUYING A FAST END. TOO MUCH
INTENSIFICATION OF THE TROUGH ALOFT TO THE WEST KEEPS THE FLOW
PARALLEL TO THE FRONT WITH RIPPLES OF JET STREAM ENERGY AND RRQ OF
THE UPPER LVL JET AT LEAST THRU 10Z THURSDAY HERE...THAT MEANS
WAVES OF PRES FALLS/WEAK BUT RATHER MOIST WAA AND PROBABLY NOT ONE
BIG LOW PRES SYSTEM. EACH WAVE A LITTLE FURTHER S THAN THE PREVIOUS.
THURSDAY...UNCERTAINTY REGARDING BACK EDGE OF THE PCPN SHIELD BUT
THICKNESSES WILL BE COOLING AND WHILE THE BL TEMPS WILL BE MARGINAL...
ONE COULD ENVISION A LITTLE SNOW AT THE TAIL END ACROSS THE POCS
AND FAR NW NJ. USE OF THE BOX WX TOOL PERMITTED SNOW USING BLENDED
NCEP THICKNESS FIELDS AND BLENDED NCEP MOS TEMPS WITH THE ECMWF 2M
TEMPS. THE QUESTION...WILL THERE BE ANY PCPN IN THE COLDER AIR
AFTER 12Z THU AND AM UNSURE. HOWEVER...AM NOTING EACH NCEP CYCLE
KEEPS DRAGGING OUT THE PCPN SCENARIO LONGER AND LONGER.. MORE IN
KEEPING WITH ECMWF/UKMET. THINK THIS MIGHT GET A LITTLE INTERESTING
THURSDAY MORNING...ESP SINCE GEFS/SREF MEMBER TRENDS ARE SHOWING A
SLOWLY INCREASING MEMBER TREND OF WET MELTING SNOW IN THE LAST FEW
HRS OF THE EVENT IN NE PA.
ANYWAY...THINK PARTIAL CLEARING WILL DEVELOP THU AFTN W BELOW NORMAL
MAX TEMPS. GUSTY NW WINDS 20 TO 25 MPH DEVELOP LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON.
FRIDAY...SUNNY BUT CHILLY...COLDEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH BELOW
FREEZING TEMPS MOST OF THE AREA TO START THE DAY. LIGHT WIND PERMITS
LITTLE MIXING AND THEREFORE TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE
DESPITE ALL THE SUN.
SATURDAY...WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS WITH SOME CLOUDINESS AND A
SLIGHTLY MILDER AFTERNOON AFTER ANOTHER CHILLY START.
SUNDAY...APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAY TRIGGER ISOLATED SHOWERS IN A
BRIEFLY STRONG WARM ADVECTION PATTERN. THE ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER
AND SMALL RISK OF A SHOWER SEEM TO MINIMIZE THE POTENTIAL WARMUP.
MONDAY-TUESDAY...PROBABLY COOLER OR COLDER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO SE CANADA AND BEGINS A CHILLY BL DRAIN AHEAD OF LOW PRES
MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. HIGHEST POPS FOR NOW EARLY NEXT WEEK
ARE MONDAY NIGHT WHEN THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF ICE OR SNOW MIX
IN THE POCS AND FAR NW NJ. SCENARIO HAS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING LATITUDE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW WHICH COULD MEAN LARGE
TEMPERATURE BUST POTENTIAL IN OUR FCST AREA. GFS MEX GUIDANCE SEEMS
TO BE ON THE WARM SIDE FOR NOW. DESERVES TO BE MONITORED IN A FEW
DAYS TO SEE IF TRENDS ARE COLDER OR WARMER. AM PRETTY CONFIDENT OF
A PCPN EVENT EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS MEX-MOSGUIDE POPS ARE A DECENT START ON
THIS DAY 7 ISH PERIOD OF WX.
HYDRO: WIDESPREAD ONE HALF TO 2 INCH RAINS ANTICIPATED BETWEEN 9 AM
TODAY AND 9 AM THURSDAY...MOST OF IT WEDNESDAY.
SVR: STILL A CHC OF A STRONG TSTM WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS SE EDGE
OF THE FCST AREA WED MORNING OR MIDDAY...COASTAL DEL AND FAR S NJ
WEDNESDAY. ECMWF/GFS SWI INDICATED AND SWODY2 HAS THUNDER.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
A LARGELY VFR FORECAST TODAY AT THE TERMINALS. A SLOW MOVING FRONT
FROM THE WEST WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY. THE INCREASING CLOUDS EARLY
TODAY SHOULD REMAIN VFR AND THE PRESENT SHOWERS TO THE WEST WILL
PROBABLY FALL APART SOMEWHAT AS THEY ARRIVE. THESE SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL BE OVER THE AREA MUCH OF TODAY AND THIS EVENING BEFORE A MORE
ORGANIZED AREA OF RAIN AND LOWER CIGS ARRIVE LATER TONIGHT. EXACT
TIMING OF THE SHOWERS TODAY A DIFFICULT FCST SO PLENTY OF VCSH USED
FOR NOW.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...WIDESPREAD MVFR TO SCT BRIEF IFR CONDS IN BANDS OF SHOWERS.
SOME OF THE RAIN CAN BE HEAVY. S OR SW WINDS ALONG OR EAST OF THE
ILG-PHL-EWR CORRIDOR THRU MIDDAY BECOMING NW TO N EVERYWHERE BY
LATE IN THE DAY. CONDS IMPROVING TO VFR CIGS FM NW TO SE AT NIGHT
WITH THE TRAILING BACK EDGE OF ANY REMAINING IFR BY DAWN THURSDAY
FROM KACY TO KGED SOUTHWARD.
THURSDAY...CHANCE OF MVFR CONDS IN PCPN DURING THE MORNING...MAINLY
RAIN AND MAINLY ALONG THE COAST. OTRW VFR. GUSTY NW WINDS 20 TO
25 KTS IN THE AFTN.
FRIDAY...VFR. LIGHT W WIND.
SATURDAY...VFR THOUGH MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP AT NIGHT. WIND BECOME
S-SW G15 KTS.
&&
.MARINE...
THE SCA FLAG FOR DEL BAY HAS BEEN DROPPED. WINDS CONTINUE TO
DECREASE AND ONLY A FEW GUSTS UP TO 20 KT WILL PROBABLY OCCUR THIS
MORNING. FOR THE OCEAN WATERS...THE SCA FLAG WILL BE IN EFFECT
UNTIL 6 PM SINCE IT MAY TAKE UNTIL THEN FOR THE SEAS TO RELAX
BELOW 5 FT. THE WINDS ON THE OCEAN WILL PROBABLY DECREASE BELOW 25
KTS BEFORE THAT.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...NO HEADLINE ANTICIPATED EXCEPT POSSIBLY AN SCA FROM
THE SNJ COAST SOUTHWARD ALONG THE ATLC DEL WATERS BOTH IN MORNING
SW FLOW AND THEN CAA NNW FLOW LATE IN THE EVENING. CONFIDENCE
BELOW AVG ON WIND DIRECTION/SPEED AND TIMING OF THE CFP.
THURSDAY INTO FRI MORNING...INTERMITTENT SCA CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED
WITH ATLC SEAS AT OR BELOW 5 FT BUT OCNL NW GUSTS NEAR 25 KTS. WIND
FIELDS LOOK A LITTLE LIGHTER THAN WHAT WAS MODELED THE PAST SEVERAL
NIGHTS...SO IT MIGHT BE A MARGINAL CONDITION.
FRI AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY...NO HEADLINE EXPECTED ATTM.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ450>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...GAINES/KLINE/O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...DRAG/O`HARA
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...
NWS TALLAHASSEE FL
250 PM EST Tue Nov 15 2011
.Synopsis...
19Z water vapor and H4 RUC analysis shows an upper level pattern
dominated by broad troughing across much of the CONUS. Our forecast
area resides on the boundary between this troughing and an upper
ridge axis over the FL Peninsula. This ridge axis will suppressed
further south and east over the next 24 hours. Other features of
note include a shortwave impulse embedded within the main flow over
eastern Texas, and a series of weaker impulses working down the
backside of the trough over the inter-mountain west.
At the surface, subtropical ridge axis extends from off the GA/NE FL
coast westward along the I-10 corridor. To our north and west we
find a quasi-stationary frontal boundary extending across Arkansas
and the Tennessee Valley. Weak WAA regime developing over the region
in advance of the Texas shortwave is supporting the development of a
few isolated low-topped sprinkles/showers this afternoon.
&&
.Short Term (Tonight through Thursday night)...
Tonight, shortwave impulse over Texas will shear out as it lifts
northeastward across the lower MS valley. Although this energy will
be de-amplifying, the combination of modest overspreading synoptic
support and the low level WAA/upglide regime should be enough to
support widely sct-sct showers breaking over the area. Still appears
as though the western zones will have the best chances for showers
with closer proximity to the passing synoptic support/height falls.
However, the general broad nature of the upglide suggests at least a
chance of widely sct showers after midnight for the eastern zones as
well. Any activity should be generally on the light side and be
brief in nature. For these reasons only light rainfall accumulations
of generally under 1/10th of an inch are expected. The pattern
suggests areas of lower stratus/fog developing by the later evening,
and especially after midnight. Will include areas of dense fog in the
grids after 06Z. The southerly flow will also result in a warm
overnight period with low temps failing to fall out of the 60s.
Wednesday/Wednesday night,
Initial shortwave impulse will continue to shear out while passing
to our north during the morning hours of Wednesday. With the
synoptic forcing weakening the first half of the day, any sct
showers will be the result of the continuing upglide and therefore
on the shallow/light side. Weak instability early in the day will
also limit the overall convective coverage/intensity. During the
second half of the day and into the evening hours the chances for
some more robust convection increase, especially over the
western/northern half of the area. The next mid/upper level impulse
will be amplifying as it approaches from the west. Diurnal heating
along with this increasing synoptic support will be the trigger for
any storms. An isolated strong/severe storm can not be ruled out,
however dynamic/kinematic parameters are all rather marginal for
organized updrafts. Into the overnight hours, cold front will shift
eastward across the area with showers slowly coming to an end after
its passage. The guidance ensemble suggests that the shower/storm
coverage may increase for a time ahead of the front over the eastern
half of the area. There is some support for this, as the better deep
layer QG forcing becomes briefly aligned with RRQ dynamics
associated with a strengthening upper level jet streak. For now will
go with 50% areal coverage PoPs over the eastern zones Wednesday
night. However, these numbers may on the low side should confidence
in the described synoptic setup increase.
Thursday,
Cold front will be exiting to our east during the morning hours
ending any lingering showers toward Mayo/Cross City. Clearing skies
will follow with a mostly sunny and seasonable afternoon for all
zones. A much drier airmass in place by the end of the day will set
up a cool night with low temperatures generally in the lower to
middle 40s. Unlike several days ago, the surface high behind this
front will pass well to our north helping to keep the surface
gradient tight. This less favorable high position is likely to
prevent boundary layer decoupling and therefore do not anticipate a
frost threat Thursday night for even the normally colder locations.
&&
.Long Term (Friday through next Tuesday)...
The large scale long wave pattern commences with a trough developing
just off west coast with another trough lifting NE across New
England into adjacent Canada. in between, a low amplitude almost
zonal flow dominates rest of Conus. At surface, in wake of cold
front that was racing SEWD across srn tip of FL, strong 1032mb high
moves SE to over VA with ridge building SWWD across NRN Gulf region
and providing dry NLY flow, rising heights and strong subsidence.
During the rest of the forecast...Wrn trough significantly deepens
SEWD over Wrn states while Ern trough lifts further NEWD. This
allows weak ridging to build EWD over NRN Gulf. By Sat...flow ahead
of advancing trough and newly formed Gulf of Mex high becomes
increasingly SWLY with increasing higher level clouds over local
area. Some light rain possible mainly offshore. However, building
Gulf high shunts deeper moisture just to to our N thru end of
period. At surface, high moves NEWD and well offshore with ridging
WSW over NRN Gulf. This favors locally breezy NE flow rest of
weekend. By Monday, high influence begins to erode allowing for an
increase in low level moisture.
Will go with nil pops thru the period. In wake of front, minimum
temps will commence to 5 to 7 degrees below Thurs night then rising
to around climo Fri night and 5 to 8 degrees above climo Sat thru
Mon nights. Maximum temperatures commence at or slightly above climo
Fri thru Sat then under onshore flow, 6 to 8 degrees above climo
Sun-Tues. Average inland min/max temps are 46/71 degrees.
&&
.Aviation...(through 18Z Wednesday).
Moist flow off the gulf will keep the MVFR cigs in place through the
afternoon. Expect IFR conditions at all terminals overnight with low
CIGS and VSBY. Conditions will approach airport minimums at KVLD,
KECP, KTLH. Slightly better conditions are expected at KABY and KDHN
where atmosphere will be a bit more stirred up ahead of the
approaching front. Scattered thunderstorms will be possible by
Wednesday morning at KABY and KDHN.
&&
.Marine...
Southerly flow will continue through Wednesday ahead of an
approaching cold front. Winds may approach cautionary levels at
times, especially Wednesday afternoon. The cold front will cross the
forecast waters Wednesday night with winds shifting to the Northwest
in its wake. Winds and seas are expected to quickly increase to
advisory levels early Thursday, and then linger through Thursday
night. A more prolonged period of elevated easterly flow is then
expected into the upcoming weekend.
&&
.Fire Weather...
A very moist airmass will remain in place through
Wednesday with no fire weather concerns. A drier airmass will spill
into the region on Thursday in the wake of a cold front. Humidity
values are forecast to drop to near critical levels during the
afternoon. However, critical durations are not expected to be met at
this time, and dispersions are currently forecast to remain just
below critical limits.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 65 81 62 74 42 / 30 30 50 10 0
Panama City 67 78 60 72 45 / 40 50 50 0 0
Dothan 65 83 56 69 40 / 40 60 50 0 0
Albany 65 83 59 71 40 / 40 50 50 10 0
Valdosta 64 81 63 74 43 / 20 30 50 10 0
Cross City 63 80 66 77 46 / 20 30 50 30 0
Apalachicola 68 75 63 73 44 / 30 40 50 10 0
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
GA...None.
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
MROCZKA/CAMP/BLOCK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
354 PM MST TUE NOV 15 2011
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT)...
239 PM MST TUE NOV 15 2011
18Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS CONTINUED BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ACROSS NORTHERN CONUS MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY WITH FORECAST AREA WITH
GENERAL ZONAL FLOW NEAR THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF WEAKLY DEFINED
TROUGH AXIS. EMBEDDED IN THE MEAN FLOW IS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST WYOMING AREA. AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT SOUTH
OF THE AREA PRODUCED BREEZY POST-FRONTAL WINDS MOST NOTABLY ACROSS
FAR NW KANSAS. PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
WILL BE SNOW CHANCES AND AMOUNTS.
SHORT-RANGE NWP IN GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT ON LARGE SCALE FEATURES
BUT ARE QUITE DIFFERENT IN HANDLING OF DETAILS AND SUBSEQUENT PRECIP
OUTPUT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS STILL SOMEWHAT OF A CONCERN BUT SEEMS
MUCH MORE PLENTIFUL WITH LATEST OPS GUIDANCE AND WILL WARRANT AN
INCREASE IN POPS OVERNIGHT FROM FLURRIES...ALONG WITH SNOW AMOUNTS.
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL GENERALLY AMPLIFY THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF AN EXITING JET STREAK TO THE NORTHEAST AND AN
APPROACHING JET STREAK MOVING AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF TROUGH AXIS.
LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING
AND WILL BE MAXIMIZED BETWEEN 06Z-12Z. IN ADDITION...MODELS IN
DECENT AGREEMENT WITH H7-H6 FRONTO-G FIELD ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS
ROUGHLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 AROUND 06Z...SHIFTING
E/SE-WARD OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A CONCERN FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
BANDING TO OCCUR...PARTICULARLY IN ROUGHLY THE SAME REGION AS
MENTIONED ABOVE WITH REGARD TO FRONTO-G...GIVEN LOW TO NEGATIVE EPV
VALUES COUPLED WITH THETA-E LAPSE RATES AROUND 1-2C IN THAT AREA.
DESPITE THIS...THE FORWARD SPEED OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN MEAN
NORTHWEST FLOW HOWEVER WOULD CERTAINLY SEEM A LIMITATION TO QPF
AMOUNTS. IN ADDITION...THOUGH LOW LEVEL SATURATION DOES LOOK BETTER
THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE FORECAST AREA
IS GENERALLY WEAK AT BEST THOUGH IT LOOKS JUST A BIT BETTER AROUND
H7. GIVEN THIS...WILL STILL LIMIT TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS TO GENERALLY
AROUND A HALF INCH. -050
.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY-TUESDAY)...
239 PM MST TUE NOV 15 2011
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOLLOWED BY NORTHWEST FLOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. FLOW
BECOMES ZONAL THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY TRANSITIONING TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
FRIDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST THURSDAY,
A TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN COLORADO AND REMAIN THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT.
FORCING IS INDICATED OVER THE FA WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT MOISTURE
DECREASES SHORTLY AFTER 12Z ACROSS MOST AREAS EXCEPT THE FAR EAST
ZONES. INCREASED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA
ZONES WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH A SMALL AREA OF CHANCE POPS NEAR HILL
CITY. OTHERWISE SCATTERED FLURRIES ARE OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN
COLORADO AND A SMALL PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN ZONES. SUBSIDENCE MOVES
INTO THE FA BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
SUBSIDENCE WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY AND FOR REMAINING PERIODS THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. CONSEQUENTLY POPS WILL BE NIL.
MIN TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 20S WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WARMING TO THE LOW/MID 30S THURSDAY/FRIDAY NIGHTS. MAX TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40 WEDNESDAY. ASSUMING ANY SNOW THAT
FALLS WILL MELT QUICKLY, HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL
RISE INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S.
IN THE EXTENDED...THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES WITH THE GFS AND THE
ECMWF FOR THE SATURDAY PERIOD. THE GFS BRUSHES THE FAR NORTHWEST
PORTION OF THE FA WITH DYNAMICS WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS SUBSIDENCE
OVER THAT AREA WITH DYNAMICS WELL NORTH. FOR NOW WILL OPT FOR THE
ECMWF SOLUTION WITH NIL POPS. SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES FOR THE
PERIODS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. SUBSIDENCE IS INDICATED DURING THESE
PERIODS SO WILL KEEP POPS NIL. THE GFS/ECMWF BRING AN UPPER LOW EAST
INTO NEW MEXICO MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN ACROSS THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE REGION TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. PLAN TO GO WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES MONDAY NIGHT. CHANCE POPS LOOK
ON TRACK FOR THE ENTIRE FA TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT.
MAX TEMPERATURES SATURDAY SHOULD BE NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 50S. COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S SHOULD OCCUR
BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER
40S MONDAY AND THEN COOL TO THE MID 40S TUESDAY. MIN TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE NORMAL IN THE MID 20S WITH SOME TEMPERATURES NEAR
30 TUESDAY NIGHT.
FS
&&
.AVIATION...
354 PM MST TUE NOV 15 2011
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...A FAST-MOVING DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A CHANCE
OF SNOW TO THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
DECREASE CONDITIONS BELOW VFR BEFORE MOVING EAST OF THE TERMINALS.
CONSIDERING MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR TOMORROW MORING...THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW LOW THE CEILINGS WILL GET...BUT
THERE IS ENOUGH AGREEMENT TO INCLUDE MVFR CONDITIONS AT EACH
TERMINAL. BASED ON HOW THE NAM AND HRRR ARE HANDLING THE
EVENT...HAVE INCLUDED IFR CEILINGS AT KMCK AS THEY RECEIVE
SNOWFALL. AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES EASTWARD...CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO RETURN TO VFR BY LATE MORNING AT KGLD AND EARLY
AFTERNOON AT KMCK.
CJS
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW ORLEANS LA
1108 AM CST TUE NOV 15 2011
.UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THE FORECAST THINKING. DISTURBANCE
HAS NOW MOVED INTO TX WITH CONVECTION OCCURRING ACROSS SRN/SERN
TX. WEAK SFC WAVE IS OVER CNTRL TX AND THIS IS LEADING TO DEEP
SRLY/SERLY FLOW. LATEST RUC IS INDICATING AN AREA OF MUCH LOWER
H85 THETA E AIR MOVING IN FROM THE GULF AND THIS WILL LIKELY HURT
CONVECTION FOR A WHILE TODAY. WITH THAT WE HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE
POPS AND WILL JUST MENTION SCT SHRA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY. IN ADDITION HAVE LOWERED HIGHS ACROSS SWRN MS A FEW DEGREES.
THE STRONG/SVR ASPECT LOOKS TO BE MORE THIS EVN SO WILL DO A
MORE THOROUGH UPDATE ON THAT THIS AFTN. QUICKLY THOUGH THE LATEST
MDLS ARE TRYING TO HOLD ONTO THE S/W A LITTLE LONGER AND HAVE IT A
TAD FURTHER SOUTH. THIS LOOKS LIKE IT WILL LEAD TO SLIGHTLY BETTER
INSTABILITY AND COMBINE THAT WITH DECENT FORCING AND ONGOING
CONVECTION IN SERN TX/ AND SWRN/WRN LA THERE IS STILL A CHANCE OF
SEEING A FEW STRONG TO SVR STORMS...MAINLY ACROSS NWRN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 78 65 76 44 / 50 70 40 10
BTR 81 66 80 48 / 50 70 20 10
ASD 80 67 82 51 / 50 50 40 10
MSY 81 67 82 54 / 50 50 30 10
GPT 78 67 82 51 / 50 50 50 20
PQL 79 65 81 51 / 50 50 50 30
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
CAB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
1222 PM EST TUE NOV 15 2011
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD BRIEFLY ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND MOVE TOWARD
THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MAINE ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE 3: AS ALLUDED IN THE PRIOR DISC...CLDNSS HAS NOT GIVEN WAY
MUCH...SO WE HAD TO INCREASE CLD CVR FOR OUR FA THIS AFTN...AND
DELAY CLRG FOR THIS EVE. THIS GREATER CLD CVR HAS SOMEWHAT
IMPACTED ON MIXING POTENTIAL WITH STRONGER WINDS ALF AND MAX
POTENTIAL HTG...SO WE LOWERED WIND SPEEDS AND HI TEMPS SLGTLY.
UPDATE 2: NOT MANY CHGS FROM PREV FCST ATTM...WITH RADAR INDICATING
THE BACK EDGE OF SHWRS ABOUT READY TO EXIT INTO NB PROV. ONE
CONCERN IS HOW MUCH SUNSHINE THE FA WILL RECEIVE THIS AFTN WITH
THE CURRENT FCST OF BECOMING MSLY SUNNY SOMEWHAT IN JEOPARDY WITH
THE BACK EDGE OF A BAND OF HI/MID CLDS NOT MOVG VERY QUICKLY EWRD
FROM THE ST LAWRENCE RVR...DESPITE THE EROSION OF LOW CLDS XPCTD
BY AFTN WITHE DRIER AIR ARRIVING BEHIND THE WEAK COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY CLRG THE FA. WILL HOLD ON FOR NOW...BUT MAY NEED TO MAKE
ADJUSTMENTS FOR THE MIDDAY UPDATE. OTHERWISE...WE INCORPORATED
LATEST HRLY SFC TEMPS AND MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO FCST AFTN HI
TEMPS.
UPDATE 1: ADJUSTED THE POPS FURTHER EAST W/THE HIGHEST POPS IN NEW
BRUNSWICK. TEMPERATURES WERE TWEAKED TO MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS.
06-12Z QPF WAS ADJUSTED DOWNWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE BASED
ON THE LATEST REPORTS.
ORGNL DISC: LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWED 2 AREAS OF RAIN MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION W/ONE AREA ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE AND THE OTHER AREA MOVING
ACROSS DOWNEAST AND EASTERN AREAS. WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES IS
PASSING ACROSS THE ST.LAWRENCE RIVER ATTM W/ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT PUSHING TOWARD WESTERN MAINE. A BLEND OF THE RUC AND NAM WAS
USED THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING W/TAKING SHOWER INTO NEW BRUNSWICK
BY 15Z. THIS MATCHES UP WELL W/THE MID LEVEL FORCING EXITING THE
REGION BY 15Z AS IT LINES UP WELL W/THE RADAR ATTM. QPF FROM THIS
EVENT WILL BE AROUND .10-.15" AT BEST. MDL SOUNDINGS AND BUFKIT
PROFILES INDICATE THAT AIRMASS WILL DRY OUT ABOVE 850MBS ALLOWING
FOR MORE SUNSHINE. WSW WIND WILL TAKE HOLD LATER THIS MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION. THE NAM
HAS BACKED DOWN FROM ITS PREVIOUS FCSTS OF SHOWING SOME STRONGER
WINDS MIXING DOWN FROM 5K FT. THEREFORE...CUT BACK WIND GUSTS
TODAY TO AROUND 25 MPH ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA AS BOTH
THE GFS AND NAM SHOW LESS MIXING THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK CAA THROUGH
THE COLUMN TO TAKE HOLD THIS AFTERNOON AND W/A WESTERLY WIND IN
PLACE. THINKING HERE IS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE AS WARM AS
MET GUIDANCE IS SHOWING W/MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE NORTH AND
AROUND 60 FOR THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND DOWNEAST AREAS. A BLEND OF
THE MAV AND LAMP GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR TEMPERATURES WHICH SHOWS
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE NORTH AND MID TO UPPER 50S FOR
THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND DOWNEAST.
FOR TONIGHT...CLOUDS WILL GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AS HIGH
PRES RIDGES ACROSS THE CWA. THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS CLOUDS
FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WSW
LATER TONIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING BACK TOO
LOW. ONCE AGAIN, FOLLOWED THE GMOS AND LAMP GUIDANCE FOR THE MINS
WHICH SHOWED MID-UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTH AND CENTRAL AREAS
WHILE LOWER 40S WILL DO FOR THE DOWNEAST REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK TO OUR NORTH DURING WEDNESDAY...AS ANOTHER
WEAK DISTURBANCE TRACKS NORTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
COAST. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY BUT LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION...AS MOST OF THE MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN LOW REMAINS ACROSS QUEBEC...AND
MOISTURE WITH THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM REMAINS TO OUR SOUTH. WINDS
WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST DURING THURSDAY. ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MAY REACH THE
DOWNEAST COAST LATER THURSDAY AS THE LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST.
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL...THEN BE NEAR NORMAL ON
THURSDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING EAST ON FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH SATURDAY NIGHT AND
LIFT NORTHEAST EARLY SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT LATER SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ON MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR/MVFR EARLY TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR BY LATE
MORNING INTO TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM: MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WE WILL KEEP STATUS QUO ON CURRENT SCA FOR NOW. PLAN
ON DROPPING SCA FOR INNER HARBOR MZ052 AND TRANSFORMING THE SCA
TO SCA FOR HAZ SEAS FOR OUTER MZS 050-051 FOR THE NEXT AFTN
UPDATE.
SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS WEDNESDAY AND
TROUGH THURSDAY AND THEN POSSIBLY INCREASE TO SCA LEVELS THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...VJN
MARINE...VJN/DUDA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
107 PM EST TUE NOV 15 2011
.SYNOPSIS...
AN ELONGATED FRONTAL ZONE AND MOISTURE AXIS STRETCHING FROM TEXAS
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY INTO NEW ENGLAND WILL REMAIN
THE FOCUS FOR LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH
TONIGHT...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE COMMONWEALTH.
SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDE ALONG THE FRONT THROUGH THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD FROM THE PLAINS WILL RETURN FAIR
WEATHER TO THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. UNSEASONABLY MILD
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL COOL OFF TO BELOW NORMALS FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...BUT WARMER WEATHER SHOULD RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
STEADY BUT VERY LIGHT RAIN NOW DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE
LAST FEW HOURS. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE PER HRRR AND NEWEST
NAM12. RUC EVEN DRIER THAN THESE TWO...BUT WILL HOLD HIGH POPS IN
FOR THE LIGHT PRECIP THRU THE EARLY AFTN. THE RAIN SHOULD SHRIVEL
IN PLACE AND MAY NOT CREATE MORE THAN SPRINKLES IN THE SERN CWA.
THE NRN TIER SHOULD BE DRY...BUT WILL HOLD JUST ISOLD POPS THERE
WITH ECHOES CURRENTLY ON RADAR JUST S OF KBFD.
ANOTHER DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME HIGHS TODAY AS WE ARE ALREADY
ABOVE NORMAL MAXES AT 9 AM. MID 50S NW TO MID 60S SE...ABOUT 10
DEGREES OR SO ABOVE MID-NOVEMBER CLIMATOLOGY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
THERE SHOULD BE A RELATIVE LULL IN THE PCPN EARLY TONIGHT /APPROX
00-06Z/ WITH POPS INCREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT ESPECIALLY ACRS THE
SOUTHERN TIER. THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY INITIALLY
DRAPED OVER THE OH RIVER VALLEY WILL SETTLE SEWD INTO VA...AS A
SFC WAVE RIDES NEWD ALONG THE FRONT. THERE ARE SOME DIFFS WITH THE
TRACK OF THE WAVE...BUT OVERALL THERE IS A STRONG CONSENSUS
SUPPORTING CATG POPS IN THE SOUTH IN THE 06-12Z TIME FRAME. MDL
DIAG FROM HPC FAVORS A MORE SUPPRESSED NAM/GFS TRACK VS. THE OTHER
GUIDANCE GIVEN PROGRESSIVE FLOW UPSTREAM AND CONFLUENCE IN THE
AREA WHERE THE SYS IS MOVING INTO. WHILE THERE WILL BE A
RESURGENCE IN PWATS...THE BEST DEEP LAYER MSTR AND H85 MSTR FLUX
IS PROGGED TO STAY S OF THE TURNPIKE. THE SOMEWHAT LIMITED MSTR
AVAILABILITY WILL ONLY SUPPORT A STRIPE OF 0.25-0.50 INCH AMTS OVR
THE SRN TIER...BRINGING THE 24 HOUR TOTAL TO 0.5-1 INCH IN THIS
AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL DIVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GREAT
LAKES ON WEDNESDAY AS A WAVE RIPPLES ALONG THE NEARLY STATIONARY
FRONT DRAPED SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE. THIS WILL KEEP CLOUDS
AND RAIN CHANCES MOST CONCENTRATED ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE TURNPIKE
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH EAST CENTRAL PA THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
BEFORE COLDER AIR ARRIVES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...BRINGING
A PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES TO CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS.
A LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF SNOW STILL APPEARS LIKELY OVER THE
SNOWBELT AREAS...AS 850 MB TEMPS PLUNGE TO AROUND -8C BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND OVER-LAKE TRAJECTORIES ARE FAVORABLE FOR LAKE BANDING.
TEMPERATURES MODERATE BACK TOWARD NORMAL THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...AS RETURN FLOW AROUND THE TRANSIENT SOUTHEASTERN
US/WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE LIMITS THE SOUTHWARD PENETRATION OF THE
FRONT.
AS THE UPPER TROUGH BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN US LATER THIS
WEEK...THE SOUTHEASTERN RIDGE SHOULD PUSH WARMER AIR INTO OUR
REGION SATURDAY. THE 850 HPA TEMPERATURES ARE PREDICTED TO BE 1SD
ABOVE NORMAL LATE SATURDAY ACROSS THE NW PART OF THE STATE...AND
AREA- WIDE ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES WITH THE NEXT
CHC FOR SHOWERS LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA INDICATES SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT
AT ALL TAF LOCATIONS. ONLY MVFR IS LEFT AT KBFD AND THEY SHOULD
IMPROVE AS WELL. FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY...MAINLY VFR AS CIGS
REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH AND LIGHT RAIN TAPERING TO SCATTERED DRIZZLE.
A SERIES OF FRONTAL WAVES WILL FORM ALONG/EAST OF THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS BRINGING MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION LATER
TONIGHT THRU WED. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE AROUND 6Z
ACROSS SOUTHERN TERMINALS AND CONTINUE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING. BY 12Z ALL TERMINALS SHOULD EXPERIENCE IFR
CONDITIONS.
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY BRING LOW CIGS AND SOME -SHSN INTO
THE WESTERN TAFS ON THURSDAY GIVEN COLDER DOWNWIND LAKE
TRAJECTORIES. ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FROM
THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
OUTLOOK...
THUR...MVFR-IFR WEST...BCMG VFR EAST. GUSTY NW WINDS.
FRI-SUN...VFR.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/GARTNER
AVIATION...DANGELO/KREKELER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
328 PM CST TUE NOV 15 2011
.TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKING FROM NORTHERN WI TO LAKE SUPERIOR
WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THIS EVENING.
SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST TO WEST EARLY THIS EVENING
IN MADISON...LATER THIS EVENING IN MILWAUKEE. WINDS WILL THEN VEER
TO THE WNW AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO COOL THIS
EVENING...BUT THEN DROP RAPIDLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION BEHIND THE SFC TROUGH/FRONT. LOWS EXPECTED IN THE MID TO
UPPER 20S...WARMEST NEAR THE LAKE. 850MB TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -8
TO -10C OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY THE COLDEST SO FAR THIS SEASON.
WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE THIS EVENING WITH AN INVERSION SETTING
UP...THEN HAVE A BETTER POTENTIAL TO GUST AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT
ESPECIALLY EARLY WED MORNING...WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION. THE
NAM SNDGS SHOW A STRONGER INVERSION THAN THE RUC AND GFS...BUT
MAKE SENSE. EXPECT WNW WINDS THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS LIKELY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY RELAX WED AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES INTO SOUTHERN WI.
.SHORT TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
MEDIUM TO HIGH.
SECONDARY COLD FRONT SHIFTS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH SOME MORE COLD AIR ADVECTION IN ITS WAKE. PASSING
VORTICITY MAXIMUM FIGHTING SOMEWHAT DRY AIRMASS OVER THE AREA...SO
LEFT OUT MENTION OF FLURRIES. COLDER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE...WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S PER 925MB
TEMPERATURES OF 5 TO 9 BELOW ZERO.
WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS THURSDAY...AND CONTINUES THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY ACROSS THE AREA. THURSDAY SHOULD STILL REMAIN
COLD...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...AS WINDS SHIFT SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
AND BECOME GUSTY WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. HIGHS SHOULD
RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S FRIDAY...WITH THE FAIRLY DRY
AIRMASS LINGERING WITH CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION.
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
MEDIUM.
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY
NIGHT...THEN SHIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION SATURDAY...THEN
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THE GFS/CANADIAN/00Z ECMWF
DIFFER SOMEWHAT WITH TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE LOW. THE CANADIAN
IS QUICKEST NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA...ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY
00Z SUNDAY. THE GFS/00Z ECMWF ARE SLOWER AND OVER NORTH
CENTRAL/NORTHEAST IOWA AT 00Z SUNDAY.
ALL MODELS BRING FOCUSED WARM AIR ADVECTION AND FRONTOGENESIS
RESPONSE THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY...WITH AREA THEN GETTING INTO
THE WARM SECTOR. COLD FRONT THEN SHIFTS EAST THROUGH THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT. MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH STAYS NORTHWEST OF THE AREA
DURING THIS TIME.
KEPT HIGH END CHANCE POPS FOR SATURDAY...THEN TRENDED DOWNWARD
SATURDAY NIGHT. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDER SATURDAY WITHIN
WARM SECTOR AND WEAK INSTABILITY IN LOW LEVELS WITH STRONG
DYNAMICS...AND SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES.
COLDER AIR QUICKLY WRAPS INTO THE BACKSIDE OF SYSTEM LATER
SATURDAY NIGHT...SO MENTIONED CHANCES FOR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA. MAY HAVE TO RAISE
POPS IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS IF MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GENERAL
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEMS.
MODELS THEN IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY...THEN SLOWLY EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH TUESDAY. THEY ALSO SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
THE REGION MONDAY...WITH THE GFS ABOUT SIX HOURS SLOWER THAN THE
00Z ECMWF. SOME QUESTION AS TO THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE
WITH THIS FEATURE. FOR NOW...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. THE REST OF THIS PERIOD APPEARS TO BE
DRY. COOL TEMPERATURES SHOULD LINGER DURING THIS PERIOD AS WELL.
&&
.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM NORTHERN WISCONSIN TO LAKE
SUPERIOR THIS EVENING...AND DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN WI.
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER WEST
THIS THIS EVENING...THEN WNW AND INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
COLDER AIR WORKING INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT.
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT AT ALL TAF SITES.
WIND GUSTS WILL INCREASE TOWARD WED MORNING AS THE INVERSION
ERODES AWAY WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION. BRISK DAY ON WED...WITH GUSTS
TO 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS FROM NORTHERN WI THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR AND INTO
ONTARIO. THERE WILL BE A LULL IN THE WINDS THIS EVENING AS THE
SURFACE TROUGH CROSSES LAKE MICHIGAN...THEN WINDS WILL INCREASE
TOWARD WEDNESDAY MORNING AS COLD AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA BEHIND
THE FRONT. WINDS WILL EASE IN THE AFTERNOON...FALLING BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA BY EVENING.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO SOUTHERN WI AND LAKE
MICHIGAN ON THURSDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE ONCE
AGAIN BETWEEN THE HIGH IN THE SOUTHERN U.S. AND LOW PRESSURE
MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST. SMALL CRAFT ADVY POTENTIAL ONCE
AGAIN ON FRIDAY.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ643>646.
&&
$$
TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MRC
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WOOD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
309 PM CST TUE NOV 15 2011
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY
309 PM CST TUE NOV 15 2011
FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE WIND THIS EVENING...LIGHT SNOW CHANCES
ACROSS THE NORTH TONIGHT...COLDER CYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...THEN WARMING TREND THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
ACTIVE FLOW ALOFT DEPICTED BY WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. A POTENT
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH/PV-ANOMALY WAS MOVING ACROSS MN WITH
RADAR MOSAIC AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWING SOME RAIN/SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH IT. OUR FORECAST AREA HAD A FEW MID CLOUDS
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S.
15.12Z NCEP MODEL SUITE AND THE 15.09Z SREF SHOWING VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD.
FOR TONIGHT...WILL BE WATCHING THAT POTENT MID-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS
WESTERN MN DAMPENING WITH TIME AS IT SWINGS INTO WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR BY LATE THIS EVENING. NAM12 REFLECTIVITY/SCARIFY BOTH SUPPORT
A BAND OF MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS ALONG AN AXIS OF 700-300MB
PV-ADVECTION MARCHING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN WI THIS EVENING. HAVE
INCLUDED 20-30 POPS OF MEASURABLE SNOW NORTH OF HIGHWAY 10 TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON HOW THINGS MATERIALIZE
ACROSS MINNESOTA AND ADJUST AS NECESSARY. A WEAKER MID-LEVEL WAVE
FOLLOWS CLOSELY ON THE HEELS OF THIS ONE AND THUS HAVE INCLUDED
SMALL POPS ACROSS THE NORTH AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WELL. OTHERWISE...
LOOKING FOR RATHER WINDY CONDITIONS GOING INTO THIS EVENING WITH
DOWNWARD MOMENTUM IN COLD AIR ADVECTION...THEN SUBSIDING SOMEWHAT
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS. WILL CONTINUE THE
CURRENT WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 03Z ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
IA/SOUTHEAST MN.
COLD CYCLONIC FLOW LINGERS ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH
STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON. GOOD
MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR BRISK CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN WITH GUSTS IN THE
25 TO 30 MPH RANGE. ALSO...STEEPER LAPSE RATES WILL PRODUCE SOME
HIGHER BASED CUMULUS AND POSSIBLY SOME FLURRIES BY LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...WITH 925MB TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE -2 TO -5C
ANGE...EXPECTING HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 30S TO A FEW LOWER 40S ACROSS
THE SOUTH.
THE NAM SHOWS ANOTHER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH FAIRLY STRONG BAND OF
700-300MB PV-ADVECTION. BUFKIT SOUNDING ALSO SHOW SOME COLUMN
SATURATION WITH THIS FORCING...BY MAINTAIN A FAIRLY DRY SUB-CLOUD
LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE. AS SUCH...HAVE INCLUDED SNOW FLURRY MENTION
INTO THE EVENING HOUR AS THIS WAVE ROTATES THROUGH. 925MB
TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE -7 TO -10C RANGE OVERNIGHT FOR A PRETTY
GOOD DROP-OFF IN TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...WILL PROBABLY NOT REALIZE
FULLEST EXTENT OF THIS COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE SINCE WILL WILL
MAINTAIN SOME MIXING/NORTHWEST WINDS WITH LINGERING PRESSURE
GRADIENT.
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO/OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY FOR
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. LOOKS LIKE HIGHS WILL REMAIN SOME 5 DEGREES OR
SO BELOW NORMAL THOUGH...TOPPING OFF IN THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE
NORTH...TO THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE SOUTH.
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND A COLD FRONT
DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH MN. 925MB TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE 6-8C
RANGE WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE
40 ACROSS THE NORTH...TO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH.
MODELS HAVE BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT IN BRINGING A FAIRLY STRONG WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE OUT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
MODERATE AMOUNT OF 925-850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT...NOTED BY THE GFS ON THE 285-290K SURFACE. CARRIED SMALL RAIN
CHANCES MAINLY FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-94. SOME OF THE RAIN
COULD BE MIXED WITH SNOW ALONG I-94 IN THE COLDER AIR.
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
309 PM CST TUE NOV 15 2011
15.12Z GFS/ECMWF SHOWING VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO THE
TRACK OF THE STORM SYSTEM AFFECTING THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. LOOKS LIKE THE AREA WILL
REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE SYSTEM FOR LIKELY/HIGHER CHANCES OF
ALL RAIN THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. AS THE LOW PULLS UP INTO UPPER
MI/SOUTHERN ONTARIO SATURDAY NIGHT...COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE
AREA AS THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE DEFORMATION BAND PRECIPITATION
DRIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. SO...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF PERHAPS SOME
MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE NORTH/NORTH OF I-94 SATURDAY
NIGHT IF THE SNOW RATES ARE HIGH ENOUGH. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
THIS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS. WEATHER THEN DRIES OUT BUT
REMAINS ON THE COOL SIDE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM CANADA. LOOK FOR HIGHS ON SUNDAY ONLY IN THE 30S. MODELS
BRING A WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY FOR A SMALL
CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW. SLIGHTLY MILDER AIR EXPECTED TO WORK BACK
INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AND SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE.
&&
.AVIATION...THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY
1150 AM CST TUE NOV 15 2011
THE COLD FRONT AND WIND SHIFT FROM 210 TO 270 DEGREES WAS LOCATED
RIGHT ON KRST AT 1730Z AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST TOWARD
KLSE. THE FRONT REPRESENTS THE LEADING EDGE OF WIND GUST POTENTIAL
IN WESTERLY WINDS. THIS FRONT WILL ARRIVE AT KLSE AROUND 20Z.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THIS TIMING.
REVIEWING OBSERVATIONAL DATA AT MID-DAY AND RECENT SHORT TERM
MODEL GUIDANCE FROM RUC AND NAM...IT APPEARS THE WINDS WILL NOT BE
QUITE AS HIGH AS ORIGINALLY FORECAST. LOW-LEVEL PROFILER DATA
SUGGESTS WINDS IN THE 30-35 KT RANGE AT 5KFT MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST OVER KRST THIS AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE INCREASE ABOVE. THIS
WOULD SUGGEST AN UPWARD BOUND TO THE WIND GUST SHOULD BE IN THAT
RANGE ROUGHLY. THUS...HAVE TAKEN A STEP DOWN IN THE WIND FORECASTS
FOR THIS AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO HIGH IN THIS LOWER
SPEED. THE HARDER PART OF THE FORECAST IS TRYING TO DETERMINE IF
ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BUILD IN THIS EVENING...WHEN WIND FIELD
LOOKS TO HAVE MOST POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER GUSTS. WE HAVE CONTINUED
THE THEME OF LOWER GUSTING THIS EVENING IN THE 00-03Z WINDOW...BUT
THE GUSTS COULD BE HIGHER BY 10 KTS SHOULD STABILITY NEAR THE
SURFACE NOT BUILD IN.
AN STRONG WEATHER IMPULSE TO THE NORTH WILL PROVIDE A SMALL WINDOW
OF SHOWER POTENTIAL OVER THE TAF SITES CENTERED ON 22Z FOR KRST AND
00Z FOR KLSE. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH AS MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE
ELEVATED WITH BASES NEAR 8-10KFT AND MORE ISO-SCT IN
COVERAGE...SHOULD IT DEVELOP. CONFIDENCE IS LOW-MODERATE IN THIS
OCCURRENCE.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
309 PM CST TUE NOV 15 2011
WI...NONE.
MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
MNZ086-087-094-095.
IA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
IAZ008>010-018-019-029.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION.....BAUMGARDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1150 AM CST TUE NOV 15 2011
.SHORT TERM...
1150 AM CST TUE NOV 15 2011
HAVE BEEN REVIEWING LATEST WIND INFORMATION AND THE SIGNALS ARE
STEPPING BACK OFF THE ADVISORY CRITERIA WIND SPEEDS. EARLY MORNING
RUC GUIDANCE HAS INDICATED ONLY LATEST RUC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
HINTING AT ABOUT A 5KT DECREASE IN THE MIXED LAYER WIND FIELD
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE 15.12Z NAM HAS COME IN WITH THAT SAME
SUGGESTION...AND THE STRONGER LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD COMING IN
DURING THE EVENING POST POTENTIAL VORTICITY VERTICAL MOTION AXIS
MOVES THROUGH /SEE BELOW/. THE NAM AND GFS MOS BOTH DROPPED INTO
NON-ADVISORY VALUES AND JUST A BREEZY DAY. WOOD LAKE MN PROFILER
AND KABR 88D ARE SHOWING 30 KTS AT 17Z 850MB SO THIS IS NOT
ENCOURAGING AND STRONGEST RUC 850 MB HEIGHT GRADIENT REMAINS TO
THE NORTH CLOSER TO THE SW SIDE OF THE LOW TRACK. SO...THE
SIGNALS OF DEEP SUBSIDENCE...STRONGEST COLD ADVECTION...AND
STRONGEST WIND FIELD ALL TARGET THE EVENING WHEN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL BE TRYING TO STABILIZE. THIS EQUATION A TOUGH ONE TO
WRESTLE WITH AS SOME POTENTIAL GUST MAGNITUDE IS TYPICALLY LOST
WITH NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION. HOWEVER...THE WIND FIELD BEING UP
DOES LEND ITSELF TO REMAINING MORE MIXED AND KEEPING LAPSE RATES
STEEP TO TAP WINDS ALOFT IN THE EVENING. BOTTOM LINE IS WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY BE SUB-ADVISORY BUT GUSTY...WITH POSSIBLY
MORE ADVISORY WIND GUSTS IN THE EARLY EVENING SHOULD STABILIZING
BOUNDARY LAYER NOT WIN OUT. WILL TRY TO TARGET PRODUCTS FOR THAT
SCENARIO AND HOLD ONTO ADVISORY FOR NOW...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
DIMINISHING FOR ADVISORY CRITERIA TO BE REACHED.
FOR LATER TODAY TOO...THE TIGHT CURL OF A DEEPER TROPOPAUSE FOLD
AND POTENTIAL VORTICITY AREA NOW EAST OF KBIS WILL SHIFT EAST BUT
WILL PROVIDE SOME FORCING OVER THE NORTHERN WI AREA AND INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL LIKELY MANIFEST ITSELF IN A THIN BAND OF
SHOWERS ALONG THE SOUTHERN TAIL OF THE POTENTIAL VORTICITY /
TROPOPAUSE FOLD AS IT MOVES EAST. THERMODYNAMICALLY...THE AIR MASS
THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE FROM ABOUT 800 MB UP HAS HAD SOME
INSTABILITY CONDITIONAL ON SATURATION. WITH A HUNDRED CAPE OR SO
ALOFT WITH SATURATION...SOME SHOWERS HAVE BEEN FORMING. WE HAVE
HAD A DRY BIAS AND SO AM CONSIDERING SOME RAIN AND RAIN/SNOW
CHANCES AROUND THE 00Z TIME FRAME FOR THAT N-S ORIENTED LINE. IT
WOULD BE A BRIEF TIME OF SHOWERS AT ANY ONE POINT - ABOUT AN HOUR.
THE ECHO LINE WOULD ROUGHLY BE ON THE MISS RIVER AROUND 6 PM.
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
328 AM CST TUE NOV 15 2011
15.00 MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON FRIDAY...SHOWING THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES. A STATIONARY FRONT WILL BE SITUATED FROM CENTRAL
WISCONSIN....SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE/FRONT ACROSS NEBRASKA. AS
THE TROUGH EJECTS EAST OUT OF THE ROCKIES...THE SURFACE LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO DEEPEN. THE FRONT WILL START TO LIFT NORTHWARD AS WARM
FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE LOW PUSHES INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA.
LOOK FOR RAIN TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW LIFTS INTO WESTERN IOWA. THE WARM FRONT
LOOKS TO BISECT THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA THROUGH WEST
CENTRAL WISCONSIN. DEPENDING ON THE POSITION OF THE FRONT...RAIN
MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AT TIMES...WITH ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90. AT THIS TIME NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN/WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN LOOKS TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF
SEEING ACCUMULATING SNOW...POSSIBLY HEAVY AT TIMES SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE LOW TRACK/FRONTAL
POSITION VERY CLOSELY THE NEXT FEW MODEL RUNS. THE LOW IS EXPECTED
TO LIFT INTO NORTHEAST WISCONSIN/EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
DEPENDING ON THE POSITION OF THE FRONT...HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA INTO FAR
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. COOLER AIR WILL RETURN ON SUNDAY AS WITH COLD
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN. LOOK FOR HIGHS TO FALL INTO THE LOWER 30S
TO LOWER 40S. THE HIGH WILL BRING DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS TO THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY
1150 AM CST TUE NOV 15 2011
THE COLD FRONT AND WIND SHIFT FROM 210 TO 270 DEGREES WAS LOCATED
RIGHT ON KRST AT 1730Z AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST TOWARD
KLSE. THE FRONT REPRESENTS THE LEADING EDGE OF WIND GUST POTENTIAL
IN WESTERLY WINDS. THIS FRONT WILL ARRIVE AT KLSE AROUND 20Z.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THIS TIMING.
REVIEWING OBSERVATIONAL DATA AT MID-DAY AND RECENT SHORT TERM
MODEL GUIDANCE FROM RUC AND NAM...IT APPEARS THE WINDS WILL NOT BE
QUITE AS HIGH AS ORIGINALLY FORECAST. LOW-LEVEL PROFILER DATA
SUGGESTS WINDS IN THE 30-35 KT RANGE AT 5KFT MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST OVER KRST THIS AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE INCREASE ABOVE. THIS
WOULD SUGGEST AN UPWARD BOUND TO THE WIND GUST SHOULD BE IN THAT
RANGE ROUGHLY. THUS...HAVE TAKEN A STEP DOWN IN THE WIND FORECASTS
FOR THIS AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO HIGH IN THIS LOWER
SPEED. THE HARDER PART OF THE FORECAST IS TRYING TO DETERMINE IF
ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BUILD IN THIS EVENING...WHEN WIND FIELD
LOOKS TO HAVE MOST POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER GUSTS. WE HAVE CONTINUED
THE THEME OF LOWER GUSTING THIS EVENING IN THE 00-03Z WINDOW...BUT
THE GUSTS COULD BE HIGHER BY 10 KTS SHOULD STABILITY NEAR THE
SURFACE NOT BUILD IN.
AN STRONG WEATHER IMPULSE TO THE NORTH WILL PROVIDE A SMALL WINDOW
OF SHOWER POTENTIAL OVER THE TAF SITES CENTERED ON 22Z FOR KRST AND
00Z FOR KLSE. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH AS MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE
ELEVATED WITH BASES NEAR 8-10KFT AND MORE ISO-SCT IN
COVERAGE...SHOULD IT DEVELOP. CONFIDENCE IS LOW-MODERATE IN THIS
OCCURRENCE.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
328 AM CST TUE NOV 15 2011
WI...NONE.
MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
MNZ086-087-094-095.
IA...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
IAZ008>010-018-019-029.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BAUMGARDT
LONG TERM....WETENKAMP
AVIATION...BAUMGARDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1101 AM CST TUE NOV 15 2011
.UPDATE...
LIGHT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF SFC LOW
PRESSURE OVER WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN FELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING. THERE MAY HAVE BEEN A FEW SPRINKLES FALLING OUT OF THE
10000 FT CEILINGS IN THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA...BUT THAT WAS IT.
THIS AREA OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT NORTHEAST
THIS AFTERNOON.
CLEARING SKIES MIDDAY...AS WELL AS MIXING UP TO 925MB MAY ALLOW
FOR MAX TEMPS TO REACH A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST. EXPECTING SOME DECENT GUSTS TO 30 MPH OR SO LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AS WELL. AN AREA OF CIRRUS CLOUDS OVER IOWA IS EXPECTED
TO ADVECT INTO SOUTHERN WI THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH IS ASSOCIATED
WITH DIVERGENCE ALOFT.
MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT WILL MARCH ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY.
THE SFC WIND SHIFT FROM WSW TO W WILL OCCUR FAIRLY EARLY THIS
EVENING...THEN VEER TO THE WSW AROUND MIDNIGHT. COLD AIR ADVECTION
MAY HELP SOME OF THE GUSTY WINDS MIX DOWN TO THE SFC...ESPECIALLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...AFTER THE SFC TROUGH
PASSES EAST OF THE AREA. NAM SNDGS ARE SHOWING A MUCH STRONGER SFC
INVERSION THAN THE GFS AND RUC THIS EVENING...WHICH WOULD INHIBIT
THE GUSTIER WINDS FROM MIXING DOWN. THE NAM SEEMS TO MAKE SENSE
THIS EVENING BECAUSE THAT IS WHEN THE SFC TROUGH WILL BE COMING
ACROSS AND THUS THE WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT.
&&
.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...
DELAYED THE ONSET OF THE GUSTIER WINDS UNTIL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
WHILE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS STRENGTHENING AND SFC WINDS ARE
GRADUALLY INCREASING...THE STRONG MORNING INVERSION STILL NEEDS
TIME TO WEAR AWAY IN ORDER TO TAP INTO THE STRONGER WINDS BETWEEN
1000 AND 2000 FEET AGL.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO
LAKE SUPERIOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND DRAG A COLD FRONT
ACROSS SOUTHERN WI. VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. CLEAR SKIES
WILL GIVE WAY TO BROKEN/OVERCAST CIRRUS CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. SFC
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON...THEN WEST
THIS EVENING...THEN WNW AND INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH COLDER
AIR WORKING INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT.
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR PROBABLY TONIGHT AT ALL TAF SITES...
ESPECIALLY IN THE EVENING WITH A STRONG SURFACE INVERSION. WIND
GUSTS WILL INCREASE TOWARD WED MORNING AS THE INVERSION ERODES
AWAY WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS ARE SLOWER TO INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
THIS MORNING...SINCE THE INVERSION WAS QUITE STRONG AND IS TAKING
TIME TO ERODE AWAY. HOWEVER...THE GUSTY SSW WINDS WILL HAPPEN
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A LULL IN THE GUSTY WINDS THIS EVENING AS
THE SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN...BUT WINDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
AS COLDER AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ643>646.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MRC