Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 11/14/11
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1030 AM PST SAT NOV 12 2011
.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH TOWARDS BAJA CALIFORNIA TODAY. WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE COMBINED WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION TODAY...WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. A WARMING AND DRYING TREND
WILL START ON MONDAY AND SHOULD REACH SEASONAL NORMALS AROUND
MIDWEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MON)...
CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR 31N/123W...WITH
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING AN AREA OF COOLING CLOUD TOPS ON
THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE LOW CENTER. SEVERAL LIGHTNING STRIKES
HAVE ALSO BEEN DETECTED WITH THIS AREA OF CONVECTION...ABOUT 130
MILES SOUTHWEST OF SAN NICHOLAS ISLAND. THE CUTOFF LOW CENTER IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NUDGE GRADUALLY EASTWARD TOWARDS BAJA THROUGH
THIS EVENING...WITH SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE CONTINUING TO STREAM
INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN TODAY WILL BE EXTENT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS
LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES...AS WELL AS THE CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL FOR THE COASTAL WATERS. LATEST 12Z NAM MODEL SHOWS A GOOD
SURGE OF UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 500 MB THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
AN AREA OF GOOD VORTICITY ADVECTION POINTED TOWARDS LOS ANGELES
COUNTY AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. THERE IS ALSO SOME COLD AIR
ADVECTION ALOFT TODAY ACROSS THESE AREAS...WITH 500 MB TEMPERATURES
DROPPING TO -22 DEGREES CELSIUS THIS AFTERNOON. THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL BRING INCREASING INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
THE NAM BRINGING A LARGE AREA OF NEGATIVE LIFTED INDICES INTO OUR
COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. IN FACT...THERE IS A LIFTED INDEX
BULLSEYE OF -5 CENTERED JUST WEST OF CATALINA! LATEST RUC SOLUTION
ALSO SHOWS THE INCREASING INSTABILITY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON. FOR THE ABOVE MENTIONED REASONS...AND BASED ON LATEST NAM
MOS GUIDANCE...HAVE BUMPED UP POPS A BIT FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES...WITH GENERALLY
SCATTERED COVERAGE. ALSO INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS FOR THIS AFTERNOON...INCLUDING CATALINA
ISLAND. HAVE ISSUED A MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (LAXMWSLOX) TO
HIGHLIGHT THIS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL FOR THE COASTAL WATERS...AND
ALSO MENTIONED THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED
WATERSPOUTS. SNOW LEVELS WILL GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN 6000 AND 6500
FEET TODAY...WITH ONLY SMALL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.
*** FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ***
BY SUNDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL BE WELL SOUTH COMING ASHORE ACROSS
CENTRAL BAJA. THIS WILL BRING HIGHER HEIGHTS AND THICKNESS LVLS
ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPS WILL REMAIN QUITE MILD WITH A FEW DEGREES
OF WARMING ON SUNDAY AND A FEW VALLEY AREAS REACHING THE LOWER 70S.
THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES DUE TO SOME LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BUT NO SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. THERE WILL BE PATCHY
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST AND LA/VTU
COASTAL AREAS BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THERE WILL BE SOME
ADDITIONAL WARMING ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS STILL RANGING IN THE 60S TO
MID 70S. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...BOTH GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM FOR THE MOST PART. BROAD NW FLOW
ALOFT ON TUE WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL WED AND THU CONTINUING FAIR
WEATHER CONDITIONS. ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO DESCEND OUT OF
THE GULF OF ALASKA TOWARDS THE PAC NW. THIS WILL DEEPEN A TROUGH
OVER MUCH OF CALIFORNIA WITH A COOLING TREND LIKELY. THERE COULD BE
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN ON TAP FOR NEXT WEEKEND...BUT WAY TOO EARLY TO
INTRODUCE POPS.
&&
.AVIATION...12/1800Z.
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED APPROXIMATELY 270 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF KLAX WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST. MODERATE UPPER
LEVEL SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG NORTHEAST AND LIGHT MID
LEVEL SOUTH WINDS BECOME LIGHT EAST AFTER 13/05Z. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE OUTER WATERS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AT 30KT WITH
TOPS APPROXIMATELY 30KFT BETWEEN 12/20-12/23Z THEN MOVE NORTH AT
10KT BETWEEN 12/23-13/01Z . FREEZING LEVEL WAS APPROXIMATELY 8KFT
AND WILL DIFFER BY PLUS 1KFT BY 13/18Z.
KLAX...CIGS 035 LIKELY THROUGH 13/03Z WITH -SHRA. CHANCE BKN060
BETWEEN 13/03-13/06Z.
KBUR...CIGS 035 LIKELY THROUGH 12/21Z...THEN BKN050 AND -SHRA
THROUGH 13/03Z.
VIRTUALLY CERTAIN - 95-100%
VERY LIKELY - 80-95%
LIKELY - 60-80%
CHANCE - 30-60%
VERY UNLIKELY - 20% OR LESS
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).
&&
$$
PUBLIC...GOMBERG/KAPLAN
SYNOPSIS...GOMBERG
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
252 PM MST SAT NOV 12 2011
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT 2 PM THE SURFACE FRONT WAS THROUGH SLC AND APPROACHING PROVO AND
VERNAL...WITH SNOW FALLING AT HILL AFB AND EVANSTON WY...SO IT IS
RIGHT ON TRACK ACCORDING TO MODEL TIMING. ALSO AS PROJECTED THE
ACTIVE AREA OF THE FRONT IS DIMINISHING IN SIZE AND THE FRONTAL ZONE
IS GROWING THINNER IN SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS. THE PERIOD
OF MAXIMUM ACTIVE WEATHER IN NE UT AND NW CO WILL BE RELATIVELY BRIEF
TONIGHT. PRIME TIME FOR BEST SNOWFALL AND STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD BE
BETWEEN 9 PM AND MIDNIGHT. HAVE INCREASED THE CHC OF PRECIP OVER THE
NORTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE AREA...VALLEYS AND MOUNTAINS...FOR THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...HAVING HIGHER CERTAINTY WITH THIS INITIAL
SPURT OF RAIN AND SNOW. THE SNOWFALL IN THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD BE
ENOUGH FOR SEVERAL INCHES TO ACCUMULATE...ALONG WITH STRONG WESTERLY
FLOW AT AND JUST BELOW MOUNTAINTOP LEVEL. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR
THE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO MATERIALIZE. STILL EXPECT RABBIT EARS AND
VAIL PASSES TO SEE G50-60MPH THIS EVENING...WITH DRIFTING AND
WHITEOUT CONDITIONS MAKING TRAVEL DANGEROUS IF NOT IMPOSSIBLE.
AFTER THIS FRONT PASSES THERE WILL BE A LULL IN THE WINTER WEATHER
BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z TONIGHT. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A SECOND SURGE
SUNDAY. THIS WEAKER FRONT WILL BRING COOLER AIR THAT WILL RUN INTO
SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR IN PLACE OVER THE AREA. SOME OVERRUNNING IS
POSSIBLE RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL OVER NW AND CENTRAL CO...
INCLUDING THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
COLDER CONDITIONS AND RAPID CLEARING WILL FOLLOW THE SECOND SYSTEM
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
THANKS TO BOU PUB AND ABQ FOR COORDINATION.
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT-WAVE TRAIN FROM THE ALEUTIANS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BEHIND
THIS STORM SYSTEM AND RE-ENFORCE THE NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. 295K THETA SURFACE
NOT SHOWING A LARGE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM THE
PACIFIC...BUT IT IS TAKING A FAVORABLE ROUTE AND NOT BEING SQUEEZED
OUT BY ANY BIG RANGES BEFORE HITTING THE NORTHERN COLORADO
MOUNTAINS. THE LARGE SCALE ASCENT INCREASES AFTER MIDNIGHT ON MONDAY
WHEN JET SUPPORT ARRIVES ALONG WITH THE STRONGEST OF THE EMBEDDED
WAVES. OROGRAPHICS SHOULD CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE WESTERN ASPECTS FROM
STEAMBOAT DOWN TO CRESTED BUTTE...AND HAVE NUDGED POPS UP SLIGHTLY
WITH ONLY A FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION STILL INDICATED.
THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO DE-AMPLIFY DURING THE MID WEEK
TIME FRAME BUT A BUILDING RIDGE INTO THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC/GULF OF
ALASKA REGION...WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER TROF TO BEGIN TO CARVE OUT
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST STATES BY LATE IN THE WEEK. THE TREND THE
WESTERN TROF FORMATION HAS BEEN SLOWED DOWN FROM PREVIOUS RUNS AND
THIS SHOULD KEEP MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE THROUGH LATE WEEK.
WITH THE STRONGER WESTERLY...THEN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE A
REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES SHOULD OCCUR AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE TO
AT LEAST SEASONAL LEVELS BY MID WEEK AND POSSIBLY ABOVE IN AN
INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN. THERE ARE SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES BY THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEKEND WHEN THE FIRST LEADING
ENERGY EJECTS FROM THE TROF INTO THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN AND
THEREFORE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE.
&&
.AVIATION /FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO PREVAIL AT FLIGHT TERMINAL SITES THIS
AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF A
COLD STILL JUST OUTSIDE OUR NORTHEAST CWA. SOME PASSING SHOWERS HAVE
DROPPED CONDITIONS TO THE MVFR CATEGORY AT THE HIGH VALLEY AND
MOUNTAIN SITES. THIS TREND SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING AS
BROAD SCALE LIFT WORKS ON THIS MOISTURE AND FRONTAL PASSAGE INTO THE
NORTHERN CWA PROVIDE LOW LEVEL FOCUS. LOCAL IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
EAST OF A LINE FROM KCAG TO KRIL TO KASE THE EVENING CAN BE EXPECTED
AS WELL AS STRONG WINDS AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONT. THESE WINDS
WILL COMBINE WITH INCREASING SNOWFALL TO DROP VISIBILITIES WELL
UNDER A MILE AT TIMES. WINDS GUSTING 30-50KTS IN THIS AREA WILL ALSO
CREATE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS TO LIGHT AIRCRAFT. THE HIGHER TERMINAL
SITES WILL MOST LIKELY SEE IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT IN
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WITH THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER PASSES OBSCURED
BY LOW CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION. LOWER ELEVATIONS TAF SITES SUCH AS
KGJT...KMTJ...KVEL WILL SLOWLY DEGRADE TOWARD SUNRISE ON SUNDAY WHEN
A SECONDARY SYSTEM PUSHES THROUGH WITH ADDITIONAL MOISTURE.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM MST
SUNDAY FOR ZONES 002-003-008-009-018-019.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST SUNDAY NIGHT FOR ZONES
010-012.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST SUNDAY NIGHT FOR ZONES 004-
013.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL TO 6 PM MST SUNDAY FOR ZONE 005.
UT...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CJC
LONG TERM....15
AVIATION.....TGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER CO
1139 AM MST SAT NOV 12 2011
.UPDATE...HAVE BEEN GETTING WIND GUST REPORTS OF 65 TO 80 MPH THIS
MORNING OVER THE FOOTHILLS...EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY AND EVENING. HAVE UPDATED THE HIGH WIND WARNING TO EXTEND THE
FOOTHILLS WARNING UNTIL TOMORROW MORNING AND THE WESTERN URBAN
CORRIDOR UNTIL MIDNIGHT. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS ARE SHOWING STRONGER
WINDS COMING LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT
NEARS THEN ALSO AS THE UPPER DISTURBANCE PASSES AND STRONG
SUBSIDENCE WILL PUSH THE STRONGER WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE. LOOKS
LIKE THE NORTHERN BORDER AREA OUT TO THE KANSAS BORDER AS WELL
WILL SEE WINDS GUSTING TO ABOUT 50 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE UPPER
TROUGH PASSES. DO NOT BELIEVE THEY WILL NEED A HIGHLIGHT AT THIS
TIME. WINTER HIGHLIGHTS LOOK ON TRACK AS WEBCAMS OVER THE HIGH
COUNTRY SHOW VISIBILITIES BEING REDUCED AND ROADS BECOMING SNOW
PACKED. SNOW RATES WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH
HEAVIEST RATES STILL EXPECTED THIS EVENING.
&&
.AVIATION...WINDS PROVING TO BE DIFFICULT AS MOUNTAIN WAVE MAKES
WINDS GUSTY ON AND OFF...BUT STILL EXPECTING MAINLY WEST WINDS AS
SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EAST PLAINS. THE STRONGEST WINDS
STILL EXPECTED AROUND 20-03Z. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
AREA THIS EVENING CAUSING WINDS TO SHIFT NORTHWEST. AFTER
07Z...WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY AS A SURFACE HIGH MOVES IN BEHIND THE
FRONT...BEFORE BECOMING MORE SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE NIGHT.
AIRPORTS WILL RETURN TO A WEST WIND TOMORROW MORNING...WITH KBJC
EXPECTED TO RETURN TO WEST SOONER. WIND SPEEDS TOMORROW SHOULD BE
LIGHTER THAN TODAY. ONLY EXPECT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH
TONIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM MST SAT NOV 12 2011/
SHORT TERM...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING A TIGHTLY WOUND
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON AT THIS TIME. THIS TROUGH
WILL MOVE INTO WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN ACROSS NEBRASKA
TONIGHT. VERY WINDY CONDITIONS STILL EXPECTED FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND
FRONT RANGE TODAY. A MOUNTAIN WAVE IS STARTING TO SET UP WILL BE IN
PLACE THROUGH LATE MORNING. WINDS ARE STARTING TO PICK UP WITH GUSTS
OF 40-60 MPH IN PART OF THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. MODELS INDICATE
THE STRONGEST WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MOUNTAIN WAVE WILL OCCUR
BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z. THE HRRR AND RUC13 ARE SHOWING SURFACE WINDS
SUSTAINED UP TO 50 KNOTS IN PARTS OF THE FOOTHILLS. BIGGEST QUESTION
WILL BE HOW FAR EAST THESE STRONG WINDS WILL SPREAD. MOUNTAIN WAVE
WILL DISSIPATE THIS AFTERNOON HOWEVER...STRONG WINDS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE AS DAYTIME MIXING WILL HELP WINDS ALOFT SURFACE. THE NAM12
SHOWS 700MB WINDS REACHING 40-70 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON SO HIGH WINDS
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. THE THREAT FOR HIGH WINDS WILL END THIS
EVENING AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. IT WILL REMAIN WINDY
BEHIND THE FRONT FOR A FEW HOURS BUT THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL BE
UNABLE TO MIX TO THE SURFACE BECAUSE THE AIRMASS WILL DECOUPLE ALONG
THE FRONT RANGE.
ANOTHER BIG CONCERN WILL BE THE SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW IN THE
MOUNTAINS. AIRMASS IS QUITE DRY OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
RIGHT NOW SO IT WILL TAKE A WHILE TO MOISTEN IT UP. MAY SEE A FEW
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING...BUT MOST LOCATIONS WILL HAVE TO
WAIT UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE SNOW TO BEGIN. STRONG WINDS ALOFT
COMBINED WITH INCREASING MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE OROGRAPHIC SNOW.
EXPECT TO SEE A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW THIS EVENING WHEN A
FEW FACTORS COME TOGETHER. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
EARLY THIS EVENING CAUSING WINDS TO TURN A MORE FAVORABLE NORTHWEST
DIRECTION. COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL INCREASE LAPSE
RATES. THESE COMBINED WITH INCREASING MOISTURE SHOULD CREATE A
PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW. MODELS THEN SHOW RAPID
DRYING AFTER MIDNIGHT AND BY SUNDAY MORNING SNOW WILL HAVE STOPPED
MOST PLACES. WILL KEEP THE WARNINGS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY THOUGH
AS ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE MOVE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND PRODUCES
MORE SNOW ON SUNDAY.
WINTER STORM WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND
ADVISORIES FOR THE VALLEYS. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS
ARE LOOKING LIKE 6-12" FOR ZONE 31...4-8 ZONE 33 AND 2-6" FOR ZONE
34. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW DUE TO THE STRONG
WINDS. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH WIDESPREAD BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL
OCCUR TO UPGRADE TO A BLIZZARD WARNING. EXPECT SOME WIDESPREAD HARSH
CONDITIONS FOR A COUPLE HOURS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE MODERATE
SNOW...BUT THE SNOW WILL QUICKLY TAPER OFF. EXPOSED RIDGES SHOULD
SEE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT DUE TO VERY STRONG
WINDS ALOFT. MODELS WANT TO KEEP THE STRONG WINDS UP HIGH JUST OVER
THE RIDGES AFTER MIDNIGHT...THUS ANOTHER REASON TO NOT UPGRADE TO A
BLIZZARD WARNING AT THIS TIME.
TEMPERATURES ARE MILD NOW DUE TO THE DOWNSLOPE WINDS AND WILL REMAIN
MILD TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S FOR MOST OF NORTHEAST COLORADO. THE
FIRE DANGER WILL BE HIGH TODAY DUE TO THE STRONG WINDS. RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES ARE LOW RIGHT NOW WITH READINGS RUNNING IN THE 10-20%
RANGE. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE AIRMASS WILL MOISTEN THROUGH THE DAY
AND PUSH HUMIDITIES ABOVE 15%. THEREFORE WILL NOT ISSUE ANY RED FLAG
WARNING. IF THE DRY AIRMASS IS SLOW TO MOVE OUT A RED FLAG WARNING
WILL BE NEED FOR THE PLAINS.
LONG TERM...THE WEATHER ROLLER COASTER CONTINUES SUNDAY WITH
ANOTHER BOUT OF SNOW AND STRONG W-NWLY WINDS FOR THE HIGH COUNTY AND
GUSTY AND ERRATIC CHINOOK WINDS FOR THE FRONT RANGE AND NEARBY
PLAINS. BROAD UPPER TROUGH WITHIN THE NRN STREAM OF VERY STRONG
W/NWLY FLOW ALOFT IS TETHERED TO A CLOSED LOW AT MID-LEVELS OFF THE
NRN BAJA COAST. THE UPR TROUGH PASSES OVER COLORADO DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS SHOW A DEEP LAYER OF MARGINALLY
UNSTABLE SATURATED AIR FROM THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WESTWARD DURING
THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. BY LATE IN THE DAY THE DEPTH
OF THE MOIST LAYER BEGINS TO DECREASE WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND
STABILITY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE EXITING UPPER TROUGH. 750-500 MB
WINDS PREDOMINANTLY WESTERLY IN DIRECTION THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY
WITH SPEEDS AT 700MB ON THE ORDER OF 40-45KTS....AND UP AROUND 80
KTS ABOVE TIMBERLINE SUNDAY MORNING. AFTER 18Z/SUN MODEL WIND SPDS
DECREASE BUT REMAIN ZONAL...ONLY TO INCREASE AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE OVER THE FRONT RANGE. OVERNIGHT
THE I-25 URBAN CORRIDOR COULD SEE STG AND GUSTY COLD BORA TYPE
DOWNSLOPE WINDS DEVELOPING WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION KICKING IN WITH
PASSAGE OF A WEAK SECONDARY TROUGH AXIS. PERIOD OF STRONGEST WINDS
OVER AND ALONG THE FRONT RANGE APPEARS TO BE FROM 06Z/MON TO
18Z/MON. AT THIS TIME...SPEEDS DO NOT APPEAR TO REACH HIGH WIND
CRITERIA...BUT WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED IF WE HEAR OF A FEW WIND PRONE
AREAS HITTING IT TOWARDS MORNING. ON MONDAY AIRMASS DRIES OUT WITH
MODERATE NWLY FLOW ALOFT. MOISTURE BANKED UP AGAINST THE MTNS WEST
OF THE CONT DIVIDE COULD KEEP SNOW SHOWERS GOING FOR A GOOD PART OF
THE DAY...BUT RESULTING IN LITTLE IF ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION.
DOWNSLOPE FLOW OFF THE FRONT RANGE ON MONDAY IS EXPECTED TO KEEP
DAYTIME TEMPS ON THE MILD SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID 50S ON
THE PLAINS. THAT/S ABOUT AVERAGE FOR THE DATE. SHOULD ALSO SEE
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EAST OF THE MTNS THAT DAY.
LOOKING AHEAD...MODELS SHOW YET ANOTHER BATCH OF PACIFIC MOISTURE
RACING SEWRD ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY. THE NORTHERN MTNS COULD
SEE A RESURGENCE IN SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING THE DAY...BUT ANY
ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE MINOR AND MAINLY CONFINED TO NORTHWEST SLOPES
NORTH OF I-70. OTHERWISE SHOULD SEE MORE MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER EAST
OF THE MTNS ON TUESDAY...AND WITH COOLING ALOFT SHOULD SEE THE
COOLEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WEEK ON TUESDAY. STILL ABOUT AVERAGE FOR
THE DATE. MODELS SHOWS DRYING OVERNIGHT AND WINDS EASING AS THE JET
STREAM SHIFTS NORTHWARD WITH A BROAD ZONAL FLOW PATTERN SETTING UP
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. REST OF THE WEEK LOOKS DRY WITH PERIODS OF
GUSTY WINDS AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THE RULE.
AVIATION...A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS OF COLORADO
WILL KEEP WINDS WEST TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. WINDS WILL
BECOME GUSTY DUE TO STRONG WINDS ALOFT. THE STRONGEST WINDS AT KDEN
AND KAPA WILL BE 20-03Z. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA
THIS EVENING CAUSING WINDS TO SHIFT NORTHWEST. AFTER 06Z...WINDS
WILL BECOME EASTERLY AS A SURFACE MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT. ONLY
EXPECT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH TONIGHT.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS UNTIL 6 AM MST
SUNDAY FOR COZ035-036.
HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE WESTERN URBAN CORRIDOR UNTIL MIDNIGHT
MST TONIGHT FOR COZ038-039.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST SUNDAY NIGHT FOR COZ031-
033-034.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM MST
SUNDAY FOR COZ030-032.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MEIER
LONG TERM....BAKER
UPDATE/AVIATION...KRIEDERMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER CO
353 AM MST SAT NOV 12 2011
.SHORT TERM...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING A TIGHTLY WOUND
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON AT THIS TIME. THIS TROUGH
WILL MOVE INTO WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN ACROSS NEBRASKA
TONIGHT. VERY WINDY CONDITIONS STILL EXPECTED FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND
FRONT RANGE TODAY. A MOUNTAIN WAVE IS STARTING TO SET UP WILL BE IN
PLACE THROUGH LATE MORNING. WINDS ARE STARTING TO PICK UP WITH GUSTS
OF 40-60 MPH IN PART OF THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. MODELS INDICATE
THE STRONGEST WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MOUNTAIN WAVE WILL OCCUR
BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z. THE HRRR AND RUC13 ARE SHOWING SURFACE WINDS
SUSTAINED UP TO 50 KNOTS IN PARTS OF THE FOOTHILLS. BIGGEST QUESTION
WILL BE HOW FAR EAST THESE STRONG WINDS WILL SPREAD. MOUNTAIN WAVE
WILL DISSIPATE THIS AFTERNOON HOWEVER...STRONG WINDS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE AS DAYTIME MIXING WILL HELP WINDS ALOFT SURFACE. THE NAM12
SHOWS 700MB WINDS REACHING 40-70 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON SO HIGH WINDS
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. THE THREAT FOR HIGH WINDS WILL END THIS
EVENING AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. IT WILL REMAIN WINDY
BEHIND THE FRONT FOR A FEW HOURS BUT THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL BE
UNABLE TO MIX TO THE SURFACE BECAUSE THE AIRMASS WILL DECOUPLE ALONG
THE FRONT RANGE.
ANOTHER BIG CONCERN WILL BE THE SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW IN THE
MOUNTAINS. AIRMASS IS QUITE DRY OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
RIGHT NOW SO IT WILL TAKE A WHILE TO MOISTEN IT UP. MAY SEE A FEW
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING...BUT MOST LOCATIONS WILL HAVE TO
WAIT UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE SNOW TO BEGIN. STRONG WINDS ALOFT
COMBINED WITH INCREASING MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE OROGRAPHIC SNOW.
EXPECT TO SEE A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW THIS EVENING WHEN A
FEW FACTORS COME TOGETHER. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
EARLY THIS EVENING CAUSING WINDS TO TURN A MORE FAVORABLE NORTHWEST
DIRECTION. COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL INCREASE LAPSE
RATES. THESE COMBINED WITH INCREASING MOISTURE SHOULD CREATE A
PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW. MODELS THEN SHOW RAPID
DRYING AFTER MIDNIGHT AND BY SUNDAY MORNING SNOW WILL HAVE STOPPED
MOST PLACES. WILL KEEP THE WARNINGS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY THOUGH
AS ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE MOVE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND PRODUCES
MORE SNOW ON SUNDAY.
WINTER STORM WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND
ADVISORIES FOR THE VALLEYS. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS
ARE LOOKING LIKE 6-12" FOR ZONE 31...4-8 ZONE 33 AND 2-6" FOR ZONE
34. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW DUE TO THE STRONG
WINDS. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH WIDESPREAD BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL
OCCUR TO UPGRADE TO A BLIZZARD WARNING. EXPECT SOME WIDESPREAD HARSH
CONDITIONS FOR A COUPLE HOURS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE MODERATE
SNOW...BUT THE SNOW WILL QUICKLY TAPER OFF. EXPOSED RIDGES SHOULD
SEE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT DUE TO VERY STRONG
WINDS ALOFT. MODELS WANT TO KEEP THE STRONG WINDS UP HIGH JUST OVER
THE RIDGES AFTER MIDNIGHT...THUS ANOTHER REASON TO NOT UPGRADE TO A
BLIZZARD WARNING AT THIS TIME.
TEMPERATURES ARE MILD NOW DUE TO THE DOWNSLOPE WINDS AND WILL REMAIN
MILD TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S FOR MOST OF NORTHEAST COLORADO. THE
FIRE DANGER WILL BE HIGH TODAY DUE TO THE STRONG WINDS. RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES ARE LOW RIGHT NOW WITH READINGS RUNNING IN THE 10-20%
RANGE. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE AIRMASS WILL MOISTEN THROUGH THE DAY
AND PUSH HUMIDITIES ABOVE 15%. THEREFORE WILL NOT ISSUE ANY RED FLAG
WARNING. IF THE DRY AIRMASS IS SLOW TO MOVE OUT A RED FLAG WARNING
WILL BE NEED FOR THE PLAINS.
.LONG TERM...THE WEATHER ROLLER COASTER CONTINUES SUNDAY WITH
ANOTHER BOUT OF SNOW AND STRONG W-NWLY WINDS FOR THE HIGH COUNTY AND
GUSTY AND ERRATIC CHINOOK WINDS FOR THE FRONT RANGE AND NEARBY
PLAINS. BROAD UPPER TROUGH WITHIN THE NRN STREAM OF VERY STRONG
W/NWLY FLOW ALOFT IS TETHERED TO A CLOSED LOW AT MID-LEVELS OFF THE
NRN BAJA COAST. THE UPR TROUGH PASSES OVER COLORADO DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS SHOW A DEEP LAYER OF MARGINALLY
UNSTABLE SATURATED AIR FROM THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WESTWARD DURING
THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. BY LATE IN THE DAY THE DEPTH
OF THE MOIST LAYER BEGINS TO DECREASE WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND
STABILITY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE EXITING UPPER TROUGH. 750-500 MB
WINDS PREDOMINANTLY WESTERLY IN DIRECTION THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY
WITH SPEEDS AT 700MB ON THE ORDER OF 40-45KTS....AND UP AROUND 80
KTS ABOVE TIMBERLINE SUNDAY MORNING. AFTER 18Z/SUN MODEL WIND SPDS
DECREASE BUT REMAIN ZONAL...ONLY TO INCREASE AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE OVER THE FRONT RANGE. OVERNIGHT
THE I-25 URBAN CORRIDOR COULD SEE STG AND GUSTY COLD BORA TYPE
DOWNSLOPE WINDS DEVELOPING WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION KICKING IN WITH
PASSAGE OF A WEAK SECONDARY TROUGH AXIS. PERIOD OF STRONGEST WINDS
OVER AND ALONG THE FRONT RANGE APPEARS TO BE FROM 06Z/MON TO
18Z/MON. AT THIS TIME...SPEEDS DO NOT APPEAR TO REACH HIGH WIND
CRITERIA...BUT WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED IF WE HEAR OF A FEW WIND PRONE
AREAS HITTING IT TOWARDS MORNING. ON MONDAY AIRMASS DRIES OUT WITH
MODERATE NWLY FLOW ALOFT. MOISTURE BANKED UP AGAINST THE MTNS WEST
OF THE CONT DIVIDE COULD KEEP SNOW SHOWERS GOING FOR A GOOD PART OF
THE DAY...BUT RESULTING IN LITTLE IF ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION.
DOWNSLOPE FLOW OFF THE FRONT RANGE ON MONDAY IS EXPECTED TO KEEP
DAYTIME TEMPS ON THE MILD SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID 50S ON
THE PLAINS. THAT/S ABOUT AVERAGE FOR THE DATE. SHOULD ALSO SEE
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EAST OF THE MTNS THAT DAY.
LOOKING AHEAD...MODELS SHOW YET ANOTHER BATCH OF PACIFIC MOISTURE
RACING SEWRD ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY. THE NORTHERN MTNS COULD
SEE A RESURGENCE IN SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING THE DAY...BUT ANY
ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE MINOR AND MAINLY CONFINED TO NORTHWEST SLOPES
NORTH OF I-70. OTHERWISE SHOULD SEE MORE MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER EAST
OF THE MTNS ON TUESDAY...AND WITH COOLING ALOFT SHOULD SEE THE
COOLEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WEEK ON TUESDAY. STILL ABOUT AVERAGE FOR
THE DATE. MODELS SHOWS DRYING OVERNIGHT AND WINDS EASING AS THE JET
STREAM SHIFTS NORTHWARD WITH A BROAD ZONAL FLOW PATTERN SETTING UP
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. REST OF THE WEEK LOOKS DRY WITH PERIODS OF
GUSTY WINDS AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THE RULE.
&&
.AVIATION...A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS OF COLORADO
WILL KEEP WINDS WEST TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. WINDS WILL
BECOME GUSTY DUE TO STRONG WINDS ALOFT. THE STRONGEST WINDS AT KDEN
AND KAPA WILL BE 20-03Z. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA
THIS EVENING CAUSING WINDS TO SHIFT NORTHWEST. AFTER 06Z...WINDS
WILL BECOME EASTERLY AS A SURFACE MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT. ONLY
EXPECT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH TONIGHT.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ035-036-038-
039.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT MST SUNDAY
NIGHT FOR COZ031-033-034.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM MST
SUNDAY FOR COZ030-032.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MEIER
LONG TERM....BAKER
AVIATION...MEIER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
107 AM EST SAT NOV 12 2011
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS TO THE EAST OF REGION
EARLY TONIGHT...AND THE RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE REGION WILL
GRADUALLY TAPER OFF. DRY WEATHER...AND MILDER TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1230 AM...PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND COOL
TEMPERATURES PREVAILED ACROSS THE FA WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE
30S. LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY AND THIS WILL
BE THE TREND FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AS WHAT IS LEFT OF THE
BAND DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY GRADUALLY LIFTS NORTH AND WEAKENS.
HAVE FOLLOWED THE HRRR COL MAX REF CLOSELY FOR THIS TRANSITION AND
BY LATE TONIGHT LITTLE IF ANY OF THE BAND WILL BE LEFT IN THE FA
AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES ANTICYLCONIC. STILL EXPECT LOW TEMPS
OVERNIGHT TO BE IN THE 20S IN MOST AREAS WITH PARTLY CLOUDY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH THE MOST CLOUDS NORTH. ANY ADDITIONAL
SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED TO BE UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH AND
THIS WOULD LIKELY BE ACROSS THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS.
AS OF 955 PM...LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY HAS GENERALLY CONSOLIDATED
INTO A COUPLE RELATIVELY NARROW BUT STILL SOMEWHAT LONG
BANDS...ALTHOUGH INTENSITY AND COVERAGE HAVE BEEN DECREASING IN
OUR AREA. HEAVIEST REFLECTIVITIES CONFINED TO CENTRAL NY AT THIS
TIME. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE AS MIXED LAYER FLOW IS IN THE
PROCESS OF STARTING TO BACK TO A MORE WESTERLY TRAJECTORY AND
INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO LOWER. SNOW BANDS WILL BECOME MORE
TRANSITORY AS FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BACK SIGNIFICANTLY OVERNIGHT.
TRENDS STILL LOOK ON TRACK FOR SNOW SHOWERS MOVING NORTH AND
GRADUALLY DISSIPATING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. ANY ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS FROM THIS POINT ON SHOULD BE VERY MINOR WITH
ISOLATED SPOTS UP TO AN INCH.
PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSIONS...
AS OF 700 PM...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS LAKE EFFECT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
CONTINUE ACROSS A CORRIDOR FROM MAINLY THE EXTREME SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE SCHOHARIE
VALLEY AND INTO THE EASTERN CATSKILLS. ACTIVITY HAS PRETTY MUCH
DEVELOPED INTO NARROW BANDS IN W-NW FLOW REGIME...RATHER THAN THE
CELLULAR CHARACTER OF SHOWERS BEFORE SUNSET. SOME OF THE MORE
PERSISTENT BANDS HAVE RESULTED IN ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-3
INCHES...ESPECIALLY FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1000 FEET ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY IN THE SAWTOOTH AS WELL AS IN PORTIONS OF
SCHOHARIE COUNTY. LOCAL HIRESWRF AND HRRR SHOWING NARROW BANDS OF
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING...ALTHOUGH THE
MIXED LAYER FLOW WILL START TO SHIFT TO MORE OF A WESTERLY
TRAJECTORY LATER THIS EVENING...THEN SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT. THIS
WILL ALLOW BANDS TO TRANSLATE NORTHWARD SO THAT AREAS THAT ARE
EXPERIENCING ACTIVITY NOW WILL LIKELY TAPER OFF WITHIN A FEW HOURS
THIS EVENING. SO...ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE
LIMITED TO AN INCH OR TWO AND MAINLY FOR THE AREAS PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED. INVERSION HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER OVERNIGHT...SO
ONLY A DUSTING TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AS THE BANDS SHIFT NORTH.
AS OF 400 PM...LAKE ENHANCED MOISTURE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. NO WELL DEFINED BAND AS
OF 400 PM...BUT ACTIVITY APPEARS MORE CELLULAR. WOULD EXPECT A
BETTER DEFINED BAND WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AS DAYTIME HEATING
WANES. THIS BAND WOULD ALSO BE SHIFTING STEADILY NORTH DURING THE
NIGHT AND WEAKENING AS THE INVERSION BEGINS TO LOWER. LIKELY POPS
OVER THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND SCHOHARIE VALLEY TO START THE
EVENING...WITH CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE. THESE POPS
ARE FORECAST TO SLOWLY DECREASE DURING THE NIGHT...REACHING ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS BY
SUNRISE SATURDAY. GUSTY SURFACE WINDS THIS EVENING WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH TONIGHT...BUT AT LEAST A BREEZE SHOULD CONTINUE IN ALL OR
MOST AREAS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LINGERING ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN/WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS DURING SATURDAY MORNING...THEN DRY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE EFFECTS OF A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES BEGINS TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER
OVER THE REGION. THE POSITION OF THE HIGH AS IT MOVES OFF THE COAST
WILL ALSO RESULT IN A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OF MILDER AIR ON
SATURDAY...AND ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE
MID 40S TO MID 50S...LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 20S TO MID
30S....AND HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...A WEAK FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST MAY ALLOW
FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...AND HAVE INDICATED ABOUT
A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. CLOUDS AND SOME WIND
SHOULD KEEP TEMPS QUITE MILD...ONLY FALLING TO BETWEEN 40 AND THE
MID 40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THERE IS STILL SOME DISCREPANCIES AMONGST THE LONG RANGE MODELS
IN THE TIMING OF SYSTEMS. HOWEVER...THE BIG PICTURE IS SIMILAR. IT
LOOKS AS THE POSITIVE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION/NEGATIVE PACIFIC
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE. WHAT THIS MEANS IS THAT TROUGHINESS IS
FAVORED ON THE WEST COAST OF THE US WHILE RIDGING IS FAVORED ON THE
EAST COAST.
MONDAY...THE GFS HAS A WEAK STALLED OUT FRONT DEPICTED TO THE SOUTH
OF OUR REGION. AT THE SAME TIME THE ECMWF AND CMC HAVE THIS FEATURE
FURTHER NORTH. EITHER WAY...THERE APPEARS TO BE A MARGINAL THREAT
FOR SHOWERS ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 50S...TO
AROUND
60 IN THE HUDSON VALLEY ON SOUTHWARD...ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.
THE SAME FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CHALLENGE INTO TUESDAY. THE
GFS SLOWLY PUSHES THE FRONT FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST. HOWEVER...THE
CMC AND ECMWF FORECAST A WAVE TO FORM ALONG IT...THEN MOVE THROUGH
LATER ON TUESDAY. WILL CONTINUE CHANCES THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES AGAIN REACHING 55 TO AROUND 60 DEGREES. WE WILL
CONTINUE WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS.
BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ALL MODELS INDICATE A COOLER AIR MASS
MOVES FROM THE NORTHWEST. H850 TEMPERATURES DROP FROM ABOUT +8C TO
WELL BELOW 0C. IT LOOKS COLD ENOUGH FOR ANOTHER LAKE RESPONSE
ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL FLOW IS SOMEWHAT ANTICYCLONIC. FOR
NOW...CONFINE ANY CHANCES OF LAKE EFFECT TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
KEEP IT OUT OF THE HUDSON VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY ONLY.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO CHILL BACK TO NORMAL LEVELS...45-50 FOR HIGHS
AND LOWS IN THE 30S.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FLIGHT CONDITIONS SHOULD MOSTLY BE VFR ACROSS THE REGION DURING
THE TAF PERIOD ENDING 06Z SUNDAY...HOWEVER A BAND OF LAKE EFFECT
MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A BAND OF MVFR TO IFR CIGS ABOUT 25 SM
WIDE EXTENDING FROM EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO ESE TOWARD THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT BETWEEN 06Z AND AROUND 10Z. THIS BAND RESULTED IN IFR
CONDITIONS AT KRME DUE TO LOW CIG. AT KALB THERE MAY BE SOME
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIG...PERHAPS A BRIEF -SHSN/-SHPL BUT
VISBY SHOULD REMAIN VFR. LOCAL IFR CONDS MAY ALSO BE ENCOUNTERED
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH/SOUTH OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND
OVER THE HIGH PEAKS OF THE CATSKILLS...WITH MVFR-IFR CIGS OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SRN VT AND WRN MASS.
THE BAND IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE AS
THE CIRCULATION BECOMES MORE ANTICYCLONIC AND WARMER AIR COMES
INTO THE REGION FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. AFTER THE SUN COMES UP
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH BKN MIDLEVEL CLDS BECOMING
SCTD LATER THIS MORNING.
WINDS DURING THE PREDAWN PERIOD WILL BE WEST OR SOUTHWEST
4 TO 8 KNOTS GRADUALLY TURNING TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION.
LATER THIS MORNING THEY WILL PICK UP TO BETWEEN 8 AND 10 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS DURING THE MIDDAY PERIOD...THEN
DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 8 KNOTS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS.
OUTLOOK...
TONIGHT-SUN...VFR. NO SIG WX.
MON...VFR. SLIGHT CHC -SHRA.
TUE...VFR. CHC -SHRA.
WED...VFR. SLIGHT CHC -SHRA.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS ON THE MAIN
STEM RIVERS.
ANY PRECIPITATION THAT WILL FALL THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BE LIGHT...
GENERALLY UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH. SOME OF THIS WILL FALL AS SNOW
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...BUT AMOUNTS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT. ADDITIONAL THREATS FOR SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM/11/JPV
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...RCK
HYDROLOGY...GJM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
1233 AM EST SAT NOV 12 2011
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS TO THE EAST OF REGION
EARLY TONIGHT...AND THE RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE REGION WILL
GRADUALLY TAPER OFF. DRY WEATHER...AND MILDER TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1230 AM...PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND COOL
TEMPERATURES PREVAILED ACROSS THE FA WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE
30S. LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY AND THIS WILL
BE THE TREND FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AS WHAT IS LEFT OF THE
BAND DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY GRADUALLY LIFTS NORTH AND WEAKENS.
HAVE FOLLOWED THE HRRR COL MAX REF CLOSELY FOR THIS TRANSITION AND
BY LATE TONIGHT LITTLE IF ANY OF THE BAND WILL BE LEFT IN THE FA
AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES ANTICYLCONIC. STILL EXPECT LOW TEMPS
OVERNIGHT TO BE IN THE 20S IN MOST AREAS WITH PARTLY CLOUDY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH THE MOST CLOUDS NORTH. ANY ADDITIONAL
SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED TO BE UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH AND
THIS WOULD LIKELY BE ACROSS THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS.
AS OF 955 PM...LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY HAS GENERALLY CONSOLIDATED
INTO A COUPLE RELATIVELY NARROW BUT STILL SOMEWHAT LONG
BANDS...ALTHOUGH INTENSITY AND COVERAGE HAVE BEEN DECREASING IN
OUR AREA. HEAVIEST REFLECTIVITIES CONFINED TO CENTRAL NY AT THIS
TIME. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE AS MIXED LAYER FLOW IS IN THE
PROCESS OF STARTING TO BACK TO A MORE WESTERLY TRAJECTORY AND
INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO LOWER. SNOW BANDS WILL BECOME MORE
TRANSITORY AS FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BACK SIGNIFICANTLY OVERNIGHT.
TRENDS STILL LOOK ON TRACK FOR SNOW SHOWERS MOVING NORTH AND
GRADUALLY DISSIPATING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. ANY ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS FROM THIS POINT ON SHOULD BE VERY MINOR WITH
ISOLATED SPOTS UP TO AN INCH.
PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSIONS...
AS OF 700 PM...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS LAKE EFFECT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
CONTINUE ACROSS A CORRIDOR FROM MAINLY THE EXTREME SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE SCHOHARIE
VALLEY AND INTO THE EASTERN CATSKILLS. ACTIVITY HAS PRETTY MUCH
DEVELOPED INTO NARROW BANDS IN W-NW FLOW REGIME...RATHER THAN THE
CELLULAR CHARACTER OF SHOWERS BEFORE SUNSET. SOME OF THE MORE
PERSISTENT BANDS HAVE RESULTED IN ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-3
INCHES...ESPECIALLY FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1000 FEET ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY IN THE SAWTOOTH AS WELL AS IN PORTIONS OF
SCHOHARIE COUNTY. LOCAL HIRESWRF AND HRRR SHOWING NARROW BANDS OF
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING...ALTHOUGH THE
MIXED LAYER FLOW WILL START TO SHIFT TO MORE OF A WESTERLY
TRAJECTORY LATER THIS EVENING...THEN SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT. THIS
WILL ALLOW BANDS TO TRANSLATE NORTHWARD SO THAT AREAS THAT ARE
EXPERIENCING ACTIVITY NOW WILL LIKELY TAPER OFF WITHIN A FEW HOURS
THIS EVENING. SO...ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE
LIMITED TO AN INCH OR TWO AND MAINLY FOR THE AREAS PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED. INVERSION HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER OVERNIGHT...SO
ONLY A DUSTING TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AS THE BANDS SHIFT NORTH.
AS OF 400 PM...LAKE ENHANCED MOISTURE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. NO WELL DEFINED BAND AS
OF 400 PM...BUT ACTIVITY APPEARS MORE CELLULAR. WOULD EXPECT A
BETTER DEFINED BAND WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AS DAYTIME HEATING
WANES. THIS BAND WOULD ALSO BE SHIFTING STEADILY NORTH DURING THE
NIGHT AND WEAKENING AS THE INVERSION BEGINS TO LOWER. LIKELY POPS
OVER THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND SCHOHARIE VALLEY TO START THE
EVENING...WITH CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE. THESE POPS
ARE FORECAST TO SLOWLY DECREASE DURING THE NIGHT...REACHING ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS BY
SUNRISE SATURDAY. GUSTY SURFACE WINDS THIS EVENING WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH TONIGHT...BUT AT LEAST A BREEZE SHOULD CONTINUE IN ALL OR
MOST AREAS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LINGERING ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN/WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS DURING SATURDAY MORNING...THEN DRY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE EFFECTS OF A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES BEGINS TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER
OVER THE REGION. THE POSITION OF THE HIGH AS IT MOVES OFF THE COAST
WILL ALSO RESULT IN A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OF MILDER AIR ON
SATURDAY...AND ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE
MID 40S TO MID 50S...LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 20S TO MID
30S....AND HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...A WEAK FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST MAY ALLOW
FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...AND HAVE INDICATED ABOUT
A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. CLOUDS AND SOME WIND
SHOULD KEEP TEMPS QUITE MILD...ONLY FALLING TO BETWEEN 40 AND THE
MID 40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THERE IS STILL SOME DISCREPANCIES AMONGST THE LONG RANGE MODELS
IN THE TIMING OF SYSTEMS. HOWEVER...THE BIG PICTURE IS SIMILAR. IT
LOOKS AS THE POSITIVE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION/NEGATIVE PACIFIC
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE. WHAT THIS MEANS IS THAT TROUGHINESS IS
FAVORED ON THE WEST COAST OF THE US WHILE RIDGING IS FAVORED ON THE
EAST COAST.
MONDAY...THE GFS HAS A WEAK STALLED OUT FRONT DEPICTED TO THE SOUTH
OF OUR REGION. AT THE SAME TIME THE ECMWF AND CMC HAVE THIS FEATURE
FURTHER NORTH. EITHER WAY...THERE APPEARS TO BE A MARGINAL THREAT
FOR SHOWERS ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 50S...TO
AROUND
60 IN THE HUDSON VALLEY ON SOUTHWARD...ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.
THE SAME FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CHALLENGE INTO TUESDAY. THE
GFS SLOWLY PUSHES THE FRONT FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST. HOWEVER...THE
CMC AND ECMWF FORECAST A WAVE TO FORM ALONG IT...THEN MOVE THROUGH
LATER ON TUESDAY. WILL CONTINUE CHANCES THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES AGAIN REACHING 55 TO AROUND 60 DEGREES. WE WILL
CONTINUE WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS.
BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ALL MODELS INDICATE A COOLER AIR MASS
MOVES FROM THE NORTHWEST. H850 TEMPERATURES DROP FROM ABOUT +8C TO
WELL BELOW 0C. IT LOOKS COLD ENOUGH FOR ANOTHER LAKE RESPONSE
ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL FLOW IS SOMEWHAT ANTICYCLONIC. FOR
NOW...CONFINE ANY CHANCES OF LAKE EFFECT TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
KEEP IT OUT OF THE HUDSON VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY ONLY.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO CHILL BACK TO NORMAL LEVELS...45-50 FOR HIGHS
AND LOWS IN THE 30S.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
ENDING 00Z SUNDAY. LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
PERSISTING AROUND KALB THIS EVENING WITH A W-NW FLOW. SOME BRIEF
MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EVENING...HOWEVER THE FLOW WILL BACK TO MORE OF A WEST THEN
SOUTHWEST DIRECTION...WHICH WILL CARRY ANY LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS
NORTH OF THE AREA AND WILL ALSO WEAKEN. SKIES WILL LIKELY REMAIN
BKN AT KALB/KGFL INTO THE OVERNIGHT...THEN BECOMING SCT LATE.
GENERALLY SCT CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL AT KPOU. DRY AND TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WITH A SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING.
WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE WEST TO THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT.
INITIALLY WIND SPEEDS WILL BE AROUND 10 TO 15 KT...DECREASING TO 5
TO 10 KT OVERNIGHT. WINDS ON SATURDAY WILL BE SOUTHWEST AROUND 10
KT.
OUTLOOK...
SAT-SUN...VFR. NO SIG WX.
MON...VFR. SLIGHT CHC -SHRA.
TUE...VFR. CHC -SHRA.
WED...VFR. SLIGHT CHC -SHRA.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS ON THE MAIN
STEM RIVERS.
ANY PRECIPITATION THAT WILL FALL THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BE LIGHT...
GENERALLY UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH. SOME OF THIS WILL FALL AS SNOW
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...BUT AMOUNTS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT. ADDITIONAL THREATS FOR SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM/11/JPV
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...JPV
HYDROLOGY...GJM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
246 PM CST SAT NOV 12 2011
.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM FORECAST (TONIGHT AND SUNDAY)...
20Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW
OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF U.S. EMBEDDED WITHIN THE W-SW MID/UPPER
LEVEL FLOW IS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH HAS SPAWNED INCREASING
CLOUD COVER OVER THE CENTRAL MISSOURI AND NORTHERN ARKANSAS.
ALTHOUGH THE WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS MOVED OVER NORTHEAST KANSAS
DRY AIR OVER THE AREA HAS PREVENTED MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUD
FORMATION. THUS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE
DAY AND OVERNIGHT. EXPECT THE GUSTY WINDS TO TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT AS
DIURNAL DECOUPLING BEGINS SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY TIGHT OVERNIGHT...SO EXPECT WESTERLY
WINDS TO REMAIN IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE OVERNIGHT. BY LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING A FAIRLY SHARP AND QUICKLY
MOVING 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WILL REMAIN RATHER DRY AND THE BEST LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH. AS A
RESULT OF THOSE FACTORS...DO NOT EXPECT ANY RAIN IN NORTHEAST
KANSAS. BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING THE SURFACE LOW SITUATED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER WILL MOVE TO THE EAST...BRINGING WEST-NORTHWEST
SURFACE FLOW TO NORTHEAST KANSAS ON SUNDAY. WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION
BEHIND THE COOL FRONT WILL KEEP TEMPS ON SUNDAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S WITH INCREASING W-NW WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH.
JL
MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...A BROAD LONGER WAVE LENGTH UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS. SHORTER WAVE
LENGTH UPPER TROUGHS WILL DIG SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND
LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE MIDWEST. THE DEEPER 850MB MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA...THUS THE LOW-LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY. THERE MAY ENOUGH ASCENT
AHEAD OF AN H5 TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN KS SUNDAY
NIGHT FOR AN INCREASE IN HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLY
SOME SPRINKLES. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE NEAR 60 NORTH OF INTERSTATE
70...WITH LOWER 60S SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70.
TUESDAY...AS THE LONGER WAVE LENGTH H5 TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF
THE PLAINS A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CWA
TUESDAY MORNING. HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 40S ALONG THE NE
BORDER WITH MID 50S POSSIBLE SOUTH OF I-35...THOUGH HIGHS MAY BE
COOLER IF FROPA OCCURS EARLIER ON TUESDAY MORNING. A SFC RIDGE WILL
BUILD SOUTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN KS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOUR. SKIES
WILL BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY.
GARGAN
EXTENDED FORECAST (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BE THE STORY FOR MOST OF THE WORK WEEK WITH
DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL. DROPPED TEMPERATURES A
COUPLE OF DEGREE BELOW GUIDANCE ON WEDNESDAY WITH 850 MB
TEMPERATURES IN THE -5 TO -7 CELSIUS RANGE...LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS
...CLEAR SKIES AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. ON
THURSDAY WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE SOUTH AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EAST INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM LATE THURSDAY
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AS LEE CYCLOGENESIS TAKES
PLACE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL PUSH BACK UP INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE
CWA ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW. BOTH THE 12Z
GFS AND ECMWF ARE INDICATING JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ON SATURDAY WITH THE BEST
CHANCES ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. AT THIS TIME HAVE
MENTIONED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
ADVERTISING ENOUGH MOISTURE RETURN FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ON
SATURDAY.
ANDERSON
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
GUSTY WINDS WILL TAPER OFF AFTER SUNSET. STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL
BRING WIND SHEAR CONCERNS OVERNIGHT AS 800 FOOT WINDS WILL BE IN
THE 45 TO 50 KNOT RANGE.
JL
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
1140 PM CST FRI NOV 11 2011
...UPDATE TO AVIATION...
.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM FORECAST (TONIGHT AND SATURDAY)...
20Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK UPPER RIDGE TO
THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH A WEAKENING TROUGH NORTHEAST OF
THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS REGION. THE SURFACE RIDGE CURRENTLY SITS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER DELTA WITH A SURFACE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER MANITOBA CANADA
WITH A LOOSE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF
THE U.S. EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS
OF UP TO 20 MPH AS LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL OCCASIONALLY MIX TO THE
SURFACE. OVERNIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY
LIGHT...BUT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT. FOR SATURDAY THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE SOUTHERN SURFACE HIGH AND THE NORTHERN SURFACE LOW WILL
TIGHTEN AND WILL BRING STRONGER WINDS. THE TIGHTEST GRADIENT WILL
REMAIN OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA...ARKANSAS...AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI SO
COUNTIES ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KANSAS WILL EXPERIENCE THE STRONGEST
WINDS ON SATURDAY...WITH NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS EXPERIENCING THE
WEAKER SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND CONSEQUENTLY THE LIGHTER WINDS.
850 MB JET WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...AND BY
MID DAY ON SATURDAY NEARLY DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES TO AROUND 850
MB WILL ALLOW MIXING OF 30 TO 35 KNOT WINDS TO THE SURFACE.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REMAIN RATHER WARM IN SATURDAY AS SOUTHWEST
WINDS AND GOOD INSOLATION BRING TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE MID 60S.
JL
MID-RANGE FORECAST (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
SATURDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. THE LOW-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE LOOK
DRY ENOUGH THAT NO MEASURABLE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED. HIGH AND MID
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA.
SUNDAY...LOOKS DRY WITH DECREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE LATE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGHS WILL REACH THE MID 50S ALONG THE NE
BORDER TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KS.
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...ANOTHER H5 TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
THE PLAINS. DEEPER 850MB MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT NORTHWARD
BUT 850MB WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST AS THE H5 TROUGH
APPROACHES THE PLAINS...AND WILL KEEP THE DEEPER MOISTURE SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE CWA. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE
ALONG WITH ASCENT AHEAD OF THE H5 TROUGH FOR SPRINKLES OR ISOLATED
SHOWERS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE
H5 TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA MONDAY AFTERNOON...BRINGING
AN END TO ANY SPRINKLES OR SHOWERS. WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL HELP
TO WARM HIGHS ON MONDAY INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...AN H5 TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEAST FROM
WESTERN CANADA AND WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS WILL
CAUSE A COLD FRONT TO PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CWA LATE MONDAY
NIGHT. LOW-LEVEL CAA WILL COOL HIGHS ON TUESDAY INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 50S.
GARGAN
EXTENDED FORECAST (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ALL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL SET UP
MONDAY NIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK. THE PATTERN
WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY AND TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL FOR THE
CENTRAL U.S DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S
AND LOWS IN THE 30S.
MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE
EAST OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION RETURNING TO THE AREA ON THURSDAY. LEE CYCLOGENESIS WILL
TAKE PLACE ON THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ON SHORE.
MODELS ARE INDICATING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE AHEAD OF THE MAIN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON FRIDAY AND WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL U.S.
BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE CWA. BEST MOISTURE RETURN WILL
BE OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND THIS IS WHERE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WERE ADDED FOR FRIDAY.
ANDERSON
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD
WITH ONLY SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED. SOUTH WINDS GENERALLY 4-8KTS
TONIGHT WILL QUICKLY INCREASE TO MAINLY THE 15 TO 25 KT RANGE AROUND
15Z.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
THE PREVIOUS SHORT TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
/TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/
SFC ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE SERN
U.S. WITH A STOUT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE OH/TN VALLEYS. THIS HAS
INDUCED A GOOD SWLY RETURN FLOW FROM THE GOMEX...RUNNING UP THE LOWER
MS VALLEY ALL THE WAY UP INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND SETTING UP A GOOD
RIDGE VALLEY SPLIT LOCALLY...WITH THE RIDGES RUNNING IN THE MID 40S
WHILE THE MOST DECOUPLED VALLEYS HAVE DROPPED OFF INTO THE UPPER 20S.
HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO CONTINUE DOMINATING THE LOCAL WEATHER FOR THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS BUT WILL SLOWLY EASE TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT...MAKING ROOM FOR AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
TIED TO A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SKIRTING THE U.S./CANADIAN
BORDER. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF
THE OH VALLEY AROUND THE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY TIME FRAME...AND SHOULD
BECOME THE FOCUS FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS BY MONDAY...BUT MODELS ARE
STILL SHOWING A BIT OF A SPREAD WITH REGARDS TO THE LOCATION AND
ORIENTATION OF THE BOUNDARY IN QUESTION LATE IN THE PERIOD.
THE 12.00Z GFS LEADS THE PACK IN TIMING AND STRENGTH OF A SFC WAVE
ORIGINATING OVER THE SRN PLAINS AND RIDING UP ALONG THE BOUNDARY BY
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...THOUGH APPEARS TO SUPPORT THE POSITION OF
THE FRONT AS DEPICTED IN THE 00Z NAM. MEANWHILE...THE 12.00Z ECMWF
HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY WEAKER WITH THE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SFC WAVE AND KEEPS THE BULK OF THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE
FURTHER NORTH THAN AS SEEN IN ITS PREDECESSOR. OVERALL...THE MODEL
CONSENSUS APPEARS TO BE TRENDING SLOWER WITH THE ONSET OF THE EFFECTS
OF THIS FEATURE AND HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST IN THIS DIRECTION AS
WELL.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE ANOTHER BRIGHT...SUNSHINE FILLED DAY
WITH TEMPS REBOUNDING INTO THE LOWER 60S THIS AFTERNOON. CLEAR SKIES
AGAIN TONIGHT SHOULD YIELD ANOTHER MODEST...THOUGH WARMER RIDGE/VALLEY
TEMP SPLIT WITH THE SHELTERED VALLEYS DROPPING INTO THE LOWER TO MID
30S WHILE THE RIDGES AND BROADER VALLEYS SETTLE IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S. SUNDAY SHOULD SEE ANOTHER BUMP IN TEMPS WITH THE STRENGTHENING
WAA PATTERN SENDING THE MERCURY INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BEGIN TO SEE MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASING
ALONG THE OH VALLEY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND...ALTHOUGH POPS WERE
TRIMMED...HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN AND AROUND THE
BLUEGRASS COUNTIES. POPS SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM NW TO SE THRU
THE DAY ON MONDAY AS THE FRONT BECOMES MORE ACTIVE IN RESPONSE TO AN
APPROACHING SRN STREAM TROF LIFTING OUT OF THE SRN PLAINS...PER CURRENT
MODEL CONSENSUS. HAVE GENERALLY STAYED BELOW GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS ON
MONDAY AS THE INHERITED MID TO UPPER 60S LOOKED MORE REASONABLE.
.LONG TERM.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
12/00Z MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING
THE EVOLUTION OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH WHICH STARTS OUT ALIGNED OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TO START THE PERIOD. IN PARTICULAR...PROGS ARE IN
MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT TONIGHT THAT A CLOSED LOW NOW LOCATED OFF THE
COAST OF CALIFORNIA WILL GET ABSORBED INTO THE MEAN TROUGH AND NOT
HANG BACK AS PROJECTED IN EARLIER RUNS. THIS RESULTS IN A QUICKER
EXIT TO ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH OUR EARLY WEEK SYSTEM.
PROGS THEN ALL INDICATE ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS BY MIDWEEK...WITH HINTS
OF SOME FLAT RIDGING TAKING OVER BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
THE CONSENSUS MODEL STARTING POINT HAD GOOD CONTINUITY WITH THE
INHERITED FORECAST AND FEW CHANGES WILL BE NOTICED WITH THIS UPDATE.
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION LATE MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...WITH LIKELY RAIN CHANCES ADVERTISED. THE
SHOWERS MAY BE SLOW TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT THOUGH WITH
A STIFF SOUTHERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW IN PLACE PRIOR TO THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. DUE TO THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM...AND EARLY OCCURRENCE OF
DOWNSLOPE DRYING...RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LESS THAN
AN INCH. WILL THEN CARRY OVER SOME LOW CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA ON TUESDAY EVENING...BUT SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. PROGS THEN SHOW ANOTHER WEAK FRONT PASSING
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY...BUT WITHOUT MUCH FANFARE AND
WILL KEEP WITH A DRY FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN PROGGED TO
OVERSPREAD THE EASTERN U.S. TO END THE WORK WEEK. EARLIER ECMWF RUNS
INDICATED A QUICK RETURN FLOW SET UP BY FRIDAY BUT THE 12/00Z RUN
BACKED OFF THIS SCENARIO AND WE WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. DAYTIME HIGHS
WILL GET KNOCKED BACK FROM THE 60S ON TUESDAY TO THE MID TO UPPER
50S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP FROM THE 50S
MONDAY NIGHT TO THE 40S ON TUESDAY NIGHT. DRIER AIR BEHIND THE WEAK
MIDWEEK FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL THEN ALLOW LOWS TO DIP INTO THE 30S FOR
THE REST OF THE PERIOD...WITH SOME 20S POSSIBLE IN OUR COLDER
VALLEYS.
&&
.AVIATION.../12Z TO 12Z/
STRONG S TO SW WINDS WILL BE THE ONLY ISSUE FOR THE PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SERN CONUS EXPANDS ITS INFLUENCE FURTHER INTO THE
AREA TODAY...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS AND GUSTS
AROUND 20 TO 25 KTS DEVELOPING THIS MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH
THE LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE SLACKENING LATER THIS EVENING. RUC AND NAM
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET PRESENT AT ISSUANCE
BETWEEN 1.0 TO 1.5 KFT AGL AROUND 40KTS...AND HAVE CONTINUED TO
ADVERTISE LLWS IN THE TAFS THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE SFC WINDS
ENGAGE AS WELL. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO PREVAIL THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MB/GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM....ABE
AVIATION...MB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
635 AM EST SAT NOV 12 2011
.SHORT TERM.../TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/
SFC ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE SERN
U.S. WITH A STOUT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE OH/TN VALLEYS. THIS HAS
INDUCED A GOOD SWLY RETURN FLOW FROM THE GOMEX...RUNNING UP THE LOWER
MS VALLEY ALL THE WAY UP INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND SETTING UP A GOOD
RIDGE VALLEY SPLIT LOCALLY...WITH THE RIDGES RUNNING IN THE MID 40S
WHILE THE MOST DECOUPLED VALLEYS HAVE DROPPED OFF INTO THE UPPER 20S.
HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO CONTINUE DOMINATING THE LOCAL WEATHER FOR THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS BUT WILL SLOWLY EASE TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT...MAKING ROOM FOR AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
TIED TO A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SKIRTING THE U.S./CANADIAN
BORDER. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF
THE OH VALLEY AROUND THE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY TIME FRAME...AND SHOULD
BECOME THE FOCUS FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS BY MONDAY...BUT MODELS ARE
STILL SHOWING A BIT OF A SPREAD WITH REGARDS TO THE LOCATION AND
ORIENTATION OF THE BOUNDARY IN QUESTION LATE IN THE PERIOD.
THE 12.00Z GFS LEADS THE PACK IN TIMING AND STRENGTH OF A SFC WAVE
ORIGINATING OVER THE SRN PLAINS AND RIDING UP ALONG THE BOUNDARY BY
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...THOUGH APPEARS TO SUPPORT THE POSITION OF
THE FRONT AS DEPICTED IN THE 00Z NAM. MEANWHILE...THE 12.00Z ECMWF
HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY WEAKER WITH THE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SFC WAVE AND KEEPS THE BULK OF THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE
FURTHER NORTH THAN AS SEEN IN ITS PREDECESSOR. OVERALL...THE MODEL
CONSENSUS APPEARS TO BE TRENDING SLOWER WITH THE ONSET OF THE EFFECTS
OF THIS FEATURE AND HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST IN THIS DIRECTION AS
WELL.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE ANOTHER BRIGHT...SUNSHINE FILLED DAY
WITH TEMPS REBOUNDING INTO THE LOWER 60S THIS AFTERNOON. CLEAR SKIES
AGAIN TONIGHT SHOULD YIELD ANOTHER MODEST...THOUGH WARMER RIDGE/VALLEY
TEMP SPLIT WITH THE SHELTERED VALLEYS DROPPING INTO THE LOWER TO MID
30S WHILE THE RIDGES AND BROADER VALLEYS SETTLE IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S. SUNDAY SHOULD SEE ANOTHER BUMP IN TEMPS WITH THE STRENGTHENING
WAA PATTERN SENDING THE MERCURY INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BEGIN TO SEE MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASING
ALONG THE OH VALLEY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND...ALTHOUGH POPS WERE
TRIMMED...HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN AND AROUND THE
BLUEGRASS COUNTIES. POPS SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM NW TO SE THRU
THE DAY ON MONDAY AS THE FRONT BECOMES MORE ACTIVE IN RESPONSE TO AN
APPROACHING SRN STREAM TROF LIFTING OUT OF THE SRN PLAINS...PER CURRENT
MODEL CONSENSUS. HAVE GENERALLY STAYED BELOW GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS ON
MONDAY AS THE INHERITED MID TO UPPER 60S LOOKED MORE REASONABLE.
.LONG TERM.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
12/00Z MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING
THE EVOLUTION OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH WHICH STARTS OUT ALIGNED OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TO START THE PERIOD. IN PARTICULAR...PROGS ARE IN
MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT TONIGHT THAT A CLOSED LOW NOW LOCATED OFF THE
COAST OF CALIFORNIA WILL GET ABSORBED INTO THE MEAN TROUGH AND NOT
HANG BACK AS PROJECTED IN EARLIER RUNS. THIS RESULTS IN A QUICKER
EXIT TO ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH OUR EARLY WEEK SYSTEM.
PROGS THEN ALL INDICATE ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS BY MIDWEEK...WITH HINTS
OF SOME FLAT RIDGING TAKING OVER BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
THE CONSENSUS MODEL STARTING POINT HAD GOOD CONTINUITY WITH THE
INHERITED FORECAST AND FEW CHANGES WILL BE NOTICED WITH THIS UPDATE.
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION LATE MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...WITH LIKELY RAIN CHANCES ADVERTISED. THE
SHOWERS MAY BE SLOW TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT THOUGH WITH
A STIFF SOUTHERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW IN PLACE PRIOR TO THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. DUE TO THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM...AND EARLY OCCURRENCE OF
DOWNSLOPE DRYING...RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LESS THAN
AN INCH. WILL THEN CARRY OVER SOME LOW CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA ON TUESDAY EVENING...BUT SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. PROGS THEN SHOW ANOTHER WEAK FRONT PASSING
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY...BUT WITHOUT MUCH FANFARE AND
WILL KEEP WITH A DRY FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN PROGGED TO
OVERSPREAD THE EASTERN U.S. TO END THE WORK WEEK. EARLIER ECMWF RUNS
INDICATED A QUICK RETURN FLOW SET UP BY FRIDAY BUT THE 12/00Z RUN
BACKED OFF THIS SCENARIO AND WE WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. DAYTIME HIGHS
WILL GET KNOCKED BACK FROM THE 60S ON TUESDAY TO THE MID TO UPPER
50S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP FROM THE 50S
MONDAY NIGHT TO THE 40S ON TUESDAY NIGHT. DRIER AIR BEHIND THE WEAK
MIDWEEK FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL THEN ALLOW LOWS TO DIP INTO THE 30S FOR
THE REST OF THE PERIOD...WITH SOME 20S POSSIBLE IN OUR COLDER
VALLEYS.
&&
.AVIATION.../12Z TO 12Z/...UPDATED
STRONG S TO SW WINDS WILL BE THE ONLY ISSUE FOR THE PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SERN CONUS EXPANDS ITS INFLUENCE FURTHER INTO THE
AREA TODAY...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS AND GUSTS
AROUND 20 TO 25 KTS DEVELOPING THIS MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH
THE LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE SLACKENING LATER THIS EVENING. RUC AND NAM
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET PRESENT AT ISSUANCE
BETWEEN 1.0 TO 1.5 KFT AGL AROUND 40KTS...AND HAVE CONTINUED TO
ADVERTISE LLWS IN THE TAFS THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE SFC WINDS
ENGAGE AS WELL. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO PREVAIL THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MB
LONG TERM....ABE
AVIATION...MB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
508 PM EST SAT NOV 12 2011
.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND
THEN MOVE EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY.&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPDATE: MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO POPS ACROSS THE N/PRECIP TYPE AND HRLY TEMPS...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH JUST WEST OF THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON WILL CROSS THE STATE BY EARLY THIS EVENING.
SAT IMG INDICATES OVERCAST SKIES ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL SECTIONS WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS ACROSS DOWNEAST THIS
AFTERNOON. RH PROGS INDICATE CLOUDS TO REMAIN ACROSS MOST OF
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS INTO EARLY THIS EVENING THEN
GRADUALLY CLEARING THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WITH THE TROUGH
PASSAGE. CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE ACROSS DOWNEAST BY EARLY THIS
EVENING. RADAR INDICATING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES HAVE
DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS. HRRR AND RUC
MODELS INDICATE THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE UNTIL UPPER TROUGH
MOVES EAST OF THE REGION EARLY THIS EVENING.
UPPER RIDGE CRESTS THE STATE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND THEN MOVES
EAST OF THE REGION BY NOONTIME. SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW WARM AIR ADVECTION TO OCCUR ACROSS THE STATE
WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE
NORTH AND THE 50S ACROSS DOWNEAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS A
SERIES OF WAVES MOVES THROUGH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE FIRST WILL
COME SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. IT WILL BE
ENOUGH TO FIRE UP SOME SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE NEXT GOOD CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVES
MONDAY NIGHT WITH YET ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE TO TRAVERSE ACROSS THE
REGION. BRIEF RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND IN ITS
WAKE...SO EXPECT THERE WILL BE A BRIEF DRY SPELL TUESDAY BEFORE A
STRONGER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. RAIN FROM THIS FINAL WAVE
WILL SPREAD INTO MAINLY SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE UPSIDE OF ALL THESE SHORTWAVES WILL BE MILD
TEMPERATURES AS THEY LOOK TO STAY FAR ENOUGH NORTH THAT WE WILL STAY
OUT OF THE COLD AIR. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 50 NORTH
TO THE UPPER 50S DOWNEAST...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S DUE TO
CLOUD COVER.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RAIN SHOULD BE SPREADING NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ALONG THE COAST OF MAINE. THERE ARE
STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE GFS AND ECMWF IN THIS TIME FRAME.
THE GFS WANTS TO BRING THE LOW THROUGH ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...ON THE OTHER HAND IT SEEMS AS IF THE ECMWF IS ABOUT 18
TO 24 HOURS SLOWER. WILL LEAN WITH GFS WITH THIS PACKAGE. RAIN
SHOULD END LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE THEN MOVES IN FOR
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING BEFORE A WEAK SYSTEM PASSES OFF TO
THE NORTH BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP. TEMPERATURES AFTER
THE STORM WEDNESDAY WILL RETURN TO NORMAL NOVEMBER AVERAGES
THROUGH SATURDAY. USED A BLEND OF GMOS AND GFS FOR THE PERIOD AND
ADJUSTED AS NEEDED.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. FLURRIES POSSIBLE
ACROSS NORTHERN TERMINALS INTO EARLY THIS EVENING BUT SHOULD NOT
RESTRICT VSBY.
SHORT TERM: VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SCA WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS THIS
EVENING AND THEN EXPECT WINDS TO DROP BELOW SCA CRITERIA AFTER
MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER, SEAS ABOVE 5 FEET DUE TO SWELL WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT SO WILL KEEP SCA GOING FOR THE ENTIRE NIGHT.
SHORT TERM: SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KT ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SKIRTS BY TO THE NORTH OF THE
WATERS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED...FOR WAVES
AS WELL AS WINDS. CONDITIONS WILL SUBSIDE MONDAY NIGHT BUT WILL
INCREASE TO CLOSE TO SCA CRITERIA AGAIN TUESDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...KHW/FOSTER
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...HILL
AVIATION...KHW/FOSTER
MARINE...KHW/FOSTER/HASTINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
302 PM EST SAT NOV 12 2011
.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND
THEN MOVE EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH JUST WEST OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WILL
CROSS THE STATE BY EARLY THIS EVENING. SAT IMG INDICATES OVERCAST
SKIES ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS WITH A MIX OF
SUN AND CLOUDS ACROSS DOWNEAST THIS AFTERNOON. RH PROGS INDICATE
CLOUDS TO REMAIN ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING THEN GRADUALLY CLEARING THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGE. CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE ACROSS DOWNEAST
BY EARLY THIS EVENING. RADAR INDICATING SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
SECTIONS. HRRR AND RUC MODELS INDICATE THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE
UNTIL UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE REGION EARLY THIS EVENING.
UPPER RIDGE CRESTS THE STATE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND THEN MOVES
EAST OF THE REGION BY NOONTIME. SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW WARM AIR ADVECTION TO OCCUR ACROSS THE STATE
WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE
NORTH AND THE 50S ACROSS DOWNEAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS A
SERIES OF WAVES MOVES THROUGH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE FIRST WILL
COME SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. IT WILL BE
ENOUGH TO FIRE UP SOME SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE NEXT GOOD CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVES
MONDAY NIGHT WITH YET ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE TO TRAVERSE ACROSS THE
REGION. BRIEF RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND IN ITS
WAKE...SO EXPECT THERE WILL BE A BRIEF DRY SPELL TUESDAY BEFORE A
STRONGER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. RAIN FROM THIS FINAL WAVE
WILL SPREAD INTO MAINLY SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE UPSIDE OF ALL THESE SHORTWAVES WILL BE MILD
TEMPERATURES AS THEY LOOK TO STAY FAR ENOUGH NORTH THAT WE WILL STAY
OUT OF THE COLD AIR. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 50 NORTH
TO THE UPPER 50S DOWNEAST...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S DUE TO
CLOUD COVER.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RAIN SHOULD BE SPREADING NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ALONG THE COAST OF MAINE. THERE ARE
STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE GFS AND ECMWF IN THIS TIME FRAME.
THE GFS WANTS TO BRING THE LOW THROUGH ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...ON THE OTHER HAND IT SEEMS AS IF THE ECMWF IS ABOUT 18
TO 24 HOURS SLOWER. WILL LEAN WITH GFS WITH THIS PACKAGE. RAIN
SHOULD END LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE THEN MOVES IN FOR
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING BEFORE A WEAK SYSTEM PASSES OFF TO
THE NORTH BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP. TEMPERATURES AFTER
THE STORM WEDNESDAY WILL RETURN TO NORMAL NOVEMBER AVERAGES
THROUGH SATURDAY. USED A BLEND OF GMOS AND GFS FOR THE PERIOD AND
ADJUSTED AS NEEDED.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. FLURRIES POSSIBLE
ACROSS NORTHERN TERMINALS INTO EARLY THIS EVENING BUT SHOULD NOT
RESTRICT VSBY.
SHORT TERM: VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SCA WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS THIS
EVENING AND THEN EXPECT WINDS TO DROP BELOW SCA CRITERIA AFTER
MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER, SEAS ABOVE 5 FEET DUE TO SWELL WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT SO WILL KEEP SCA GOING FOR THE ENTIRE NIGHT.
SHORT TERM: SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KT ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SKIRTS BY TO THE NORTH OF THE
WATERS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED...FOR WAVES
AS WELL AS WINDS. CONDITIONS WILL SUBSIDE MONDAY NIGHT BUT WILL
INCREASE TO CLOSE TO SCA CRITERIA AGAIN TUESDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...FOSTER
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...HILL
AVIATION...FOSTER
MARINE...FOSTER/HASTINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
1212 PM EST SAT NOV 12 2011
.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND
TONIGHT AND THEN MOVE EAST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE: SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH QUEBEC WITH SNOW SHOWERS
LATE THIS MORNING. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THIS TROUGH TO WEAKEN AS
IT MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE BY EARLY THIS EVENING. SOME
WEAKENING EVIDENT AS IR SAT IMG INDICATING CLOUD TOPS STARTING TO
WARM. HOWEVER, HRRR MODEL INDICATES SOME LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS
NORTHERN MAINE AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH SO HAVE ADDED FLURRIES
ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
INTENSE LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH LABRADOR TODAY AND
IS WORKING IN CONJUNCTION WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES TO PRODUCE A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND. A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT
BUT EXCEPT FOR SNOW SHOWERS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN IN NORTHWEST IT
SHOULD STAY DRY. HAVE USED A BLEND OF NAM12...GFS40...ECMWF AND
SREF TO INITIALIZE THE POPS. SNOW SHOWERS THAT BROKE OUT LAST
EVENING ARE DIMINISHING IN INTENSITY AND EXPECTED TO SOON END. USE
A BLEND OF GMOS AND NAM12 FOR WIND AND GMOS FOR TEMPERATURE AND
DEW POINT. WILL MAKE SOME MINOR MANUAL ADJUSTMENTS TO THE MAXIMUM
AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANOTHER ROUND OF MILD WEATHER IS SET FOR THE REGION THIS TERM.
A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS SHOWN BY ALL THE GUIDANCE TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A MILD SSW FLOW AHEAD OF THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH A
ROUND OF SHOWERS.
THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT IS SHOWN BY THE NAM/GFS AND ECMWF TO
LIFT ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY BRINGING MILDER AIR NORTHWARD.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE AFFECTING THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS ON SUNDAY LEADING TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS BY AFTERNOON. DOWNEAST AND THE COAST WILL SEE
GENERALLY MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 NORTH AND LOW TO
MID 50S CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS. KEPT SUNDAY DRY W/DRY AIR IN LLVLS.
DEEPER MOISTURE IS SHOWN BY THE NAM/GFS AND EVEN THE SREF TO SPREAD
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THEREFORE...DECIDED TO INCREASE THE POPS
AS WELL W/HIGHEST PERCENTAGES ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST WHERE THE
BEST FORCING IS SITUATED. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL BE ABOVE
NOVEMBER NORMALS. BOOSTED WIND GUSTS UP BY 10 MPH ON MONDAY W/THE
FROPA.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A CONTINUATION OF MILD WEATHER INTO MID WEEK AND THEN A RETURN TO
MORE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY LATE WEEK.
WEAK RIDGING LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT WILL LEAD TO
SOME DRYING BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION ON TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. STARTED THINGS OUT W/THE GMOS AND THEN ADJUSTED
W/THE ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLE. TUESDAY LOOKS BE A VERY MILD DAY AS
A SSW FLOW AHEAD THE STORM SYSTEM BRINGS 925-850MBS TEMPS OF
10-13C RESPECTIVELY. THE ECMWF AND GFS BOTH INDICATE A DECENT LLVL
JET OF 50KTS TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING. THIS WILL
LEAD TO A WINDY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING W/SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST. GMOS MAXES FOR TUESDAY WERE ADJUSTED A
FEW UPWARD TO HAVE THE CWA IN THE 50S.
THE GFS AND ECMWF DIVERGE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE GFS
POINTS TO A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SWEEPING ACROSS THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY W/THE MAIN LOW MOVING ACROSS QUEBEC. THE ECMWF SHOWS
LOW PRES DEVELOPING ON THE FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT AND MOVES IT NE
ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD MEAN
SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WHILE THE ECMWF SOLUTION
WOULD SPELL OUT A SOAKING RAIN. THE CANADIAN HEMISPHERIC AND THE
GFS ENSEMBLE KEEP THE MAIN LOW THROUGH QUEBEC W/A FRONTAL SYSTEM
SWEEPING THROUGH THE CWA ON WEDNESDAY MATCHING CLOSE TO THE GFS.
THEREFORE...DECIDED TO BACK AWAY FROM THE ECMWF ATTM AND GO W/CHC
POPS FOR ALL AND PUSH PRECIP SHIELD TO THE EAST BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
W/COLDER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM. THIS COLDER AIR WILL
BRING CONDITIONS BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE WEEK. TWEAKED GMOS
MAXES A FEW DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY TO KEEP THEM UP A FEW DEGREES
FROM GMOS. GMOS MAXES WERE ACCEPTED THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. GMOS
MINS WERE ADJUSTED UPWARD BY A CATEGORY TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT GIVEN THAT CLOUDS AND PRECIP ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS.
SHORT TERM: VFR THROUGH MONDAY AND THEN CONDITIONS COULD DROP TO
MVFR MONDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY IFR/MVFR FOR TUESDAY W/ FRONTAL
SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A BLEND OF THE NAM12 AND GFS40 WAS USED FOR THE WIND
GRIDS WITH WIND GUSTS 25 PERCENT ABOVE SUSTAINED WINDS. FOR WAVES:
LONG PERIOD WAVE GENERATED IN FETCH SOUTH AND EAST OF GULF OF
MAINE CURRENTLY ARRIVING IN LOCAL WATERS AND HAS COMBINED WITH
OFF-SHORE WIND WAVE GROUP. WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE
BRINGING THE LONG PERIOD WAVE DOWN TOO FAST BUT EXPECT IT TO
SUBSIDE SLOWLY DURING THE DAY TODAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG
TODAY AND WOULD EXPECT WIND WAVE GROUP TO BECOME DOMINATE GROUP BY
MID AFTERNOON. PLAN TO LOWER GALE TO SCA.
SHORT TERM: SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS SW WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT.
THINKING ATTM IS THAT SCA WILL BE FOR WIND GUSTS TO 25 KTS AND
SEAS BUILDING TO 6 FT BY MONDAY. AS A MATTER OF FACT...SCA
CONDITIONS COULD VERY WELL HOLD ON RIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS YET
ANOTHER SYSTEM IS SHOWN TO AFFECT THE WATERS. DECIDED TO BACK AWAY
FROM HIGHER GUSTS THAT THE GMOS WAS SHOWING(35KTS) ESPECIALLY
LATER MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A WARM SW FLOW OVER COOLER WATERS
TENDS TO REMAIN ALOFT THIS TIME OF YEAR. WAVE HEIGHTS WERE
INITIALIZED W/THE WNAWAVE AND THEN KNOCKED DOWN BY 1-2 FT GIVEN
SYNOPTIC SETUP.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...FOSTER/MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...HEWITT
AVIATION...FOSTER/MIGNONE
MARINE...FOSTER/MIGNONE/HEWITT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
249 PM EST SAT NOV 12 2011
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL ALLOW FOR A DRY
WEEKEND WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL
RETURN THE CHANCE OF RAIN LATE ON SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE LATEST RUC MID-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
IN A ZONAL 500MB FLOW, WITH A DEEP LAYER OF DRY AIR ALOFT.
UPSTREAM, A WEAK RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO
THE NORTHERN GULF STATES. AT THE SURFACE, A 1028MB HIGH IS LOCATED
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THIS HIGH IS DOMINATING THE WEATHER PATTERN
FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE HIGH AND A LOW WELL UPSTREAM ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS HAS ALLOWED FOR WINDS TO BEGIN TO GUST TO AROUND 25 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT...A LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE WELL AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE PLAINS. CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL FILTER INTO
THE AREA WELL AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE A MAV/MET BLEND, AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
SUNDAY...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL PUSH OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WITH THE
AREA REMAINING IN A SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN THE HIGH AND A SURFACE
TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL AGAIN ALLOW FOR WINDS TO DIURNALLY MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE
AND BECOME GUSTY AGAIN BY LATE MORNING. GFS/NAM SUPPORT GUSTS OF
25 TO 30 MPH ACROSS THE LOWLANDS AND GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH ACROSS
THE RIDGES. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY,
ENHANCING WARM AIR ADVECTION. THUS, HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH NORTHEAST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT.
FORECAST IS CLOSEST TO A GFS/ECMWF BLEND WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT BECOMING MORE LIKELY BY DAWN ON MONDAY. WITH CLOUD
COVERAGE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT, TEMPS WILL BE 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT, RANGING FROM THE UPPER
40S ACROSS THE EASTERN RIDGES TO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY TRACK ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY, WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA IN A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. LIKELY POPS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE MAJORITY
OF THIS PERIOD AS A FEW WAVES RIDE FROM THE NORTHERN GULF STATES
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ACROSS THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT
WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO WORK ACROSS THE AREA LATE ON TUESDAY. TEMPS
ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
ONGOING RAINFALL AND CLOUD COVERAGE WILL LIMIT TEMPS SOMEWHAT ON
TUESDAY, WITH HIGHS AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. RAINFALL WILL
BE LIGHT IN NATURE FOR THE MAJORITY WITH A TOTAL OF AN INCH TO AN
INCH AND A HALF OF RAINFALL THROUGH LATE TUESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PER BLEND OF RECENT NAEFS AND ECMWF MODEL OUTPUT, EXPECT SHOWER
BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM TO BE EXITING PAST THE
MOUNTAINS TUESDAY NIGHT.
COLD POST-SYSTEM WESTERLY FLOW WILL PROVIDE COLDER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, AND MAY MAINTAIN CLOUDS AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE I-80 CORRIDOR AND MOUNTAINS.
AS TENNESSEE VALLEY HIGH PRESSURE EXITS EAST, LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL
TURN SOUTHWEST TO PROVIDE A DRY WARM UP FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, PER
BLEND OF RECENT GFS MOS AND NAEFS MEDIAN VALUES.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH NO MORE THAN BANDS OF HIGH
CLOUDS EXPECTED.
HAVE MADE USE OF NAM MODEL PROFILES TO FORECAST DIURNAL WIND
VARIATION. EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS TO GUST TO 25-28 KTS INTO EARLY
EVENING. HAVE FORECASTED ONSET OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR TONIGHT AS A
SURFACE INVERSION DECOUPLES THE 40-50 KT WINDS AT 2 KFT AGL FROM
SURFACE WINDS OF NO MORE THAN 10 KTS. DAYTIME HEATING WILL LEAD TO
DEEP VERTICAL MIXING AGAIN SUNDAY WITH SURFACE WINDS GUSTING TO 30
KTS.
OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
PROVIDE PERIODS OF RESTRICTIONS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT
AREA WIDE, AND POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
110 PM EST SAT NOV 12 2011
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL ALLOW FOR A DRY
WEEKEND WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL
RETURN THE CHANCE OF RAIN LATE ON SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE 18Z ENHANCED SHORT TERM FORECAST UPDATE HAS BEEN ISSUED WITH
THE ONLY CHANGE BEING TO INCREASE GUSTY WINDS FOR SUNDAY.
THE LATEST RUC MID-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
IN A ZONAL 500MB FLOW, WITH A DEEP LAYER OF DRY AIR ALOFT.
UPSTREAM, A WEAK RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO
THE NORTHERN GULF STATES. AT THE SURFACE, A 1028MB HIGH IS LOCATED
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THIS HIGH IS DOMINATING THE WEATHER PATTERN
FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE HIGH AND A LOW WELL UPSTREAM ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS HAS ALLOWED FOR WINDS TO BEGIN TO GUST TO AROUND 25 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON.
THIS AFTERNOON...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SLOWLY SLIDE OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST AS THE WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE MOVES INTO THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY. THE DEEP LAYER OF DRY AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR
CONTINUED CLEAR SKIES TODAY. WARM ADVECTION IN A SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM NICELY TODAY. HIGHS TODAY
WILL BE AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, RANGING FROM THE MID 50S
ACROSS THE EASTERN RIDGES TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS EASTERN OHIO AND
NORTH-CENTRAL WV. THE TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
HIGH AND THE LOW ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL CREATE BREEZY CONDITIONS
TODAY...WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH ACROSS THE LOWLANDS AND INTO THE
30S ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
TONIGHT...A LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE WELL AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE PLAINS. CIRRUS WILL FILTER INTO THE
AREA WELL AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE A MAV/MET BLEND, AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SIMILAR SITUATION ANTICIPATED FOR SUNDAY WITH WINDY CONDITIONS AND
HIGH TEMPERATURES PROGGED ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE THE AVERAGES IN THE
WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES WILL
ALSO BE ON THE RISE LATE IN THE DAY AS A COLD FRONT IS PULLED
TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN TIER OF PBZ COUNTIES.
WITH DEEPENING TROUGH FORECAST IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS OVER THE
CENTRAL U.S...SURFACE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVER/NEAR THE
REGION BY MONDAY AND SERVE TO FOCUS SHOWERS FOR THE CLOSE OF THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. RAIN CHANCES WERE INCREASED TO LIKELY NUMBERS
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AND TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST USING
THE LATEST GFS DEPICTION OF FRONTAL PROGRESS...CONFIDENCE IN WHICH
IS MINIMAL AT MOMENT.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SPREAD BETWEEN MODELS IS BEGINNING TO DECREASE...WITH THE
ECMWF/GFS SHOWING A COLD FRONT HANGING ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...EXITING THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. WITH TIMING DIFFERENCES REMAINING...WILL
USE HIGH END CHANCE POPS INTO TUESDAY...WITH DIMINISHING
CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT. ZONAL FLOW TO LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING IS
PROGGED FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY FOR MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY WILL COOL TO
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH NO MORE THAN BANDS OF
CIRRUS TONIGHT AND PERHAPS ALTOCUMULUS SUNDAY.
HAVE MADE USE OF NAM MODEL PROFILES TO FORECAST DIURNAL WIND
VARIATION. EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS TO GUST TO 25-28 KTS INTO EARLY
EVENING. HAVE FORECASTED ONSET OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR TONIGHT AS A
SURFACE INVERSION DECOUPLES THE 40-50 KT WINDS AT 2 KFT AGL FROM
SURFACE WINDS OF NO MORE THAN 10 KTS. DAYTIME HEATING WILL LEAD TO
DEEP VERTICAL MIXING AGAIN SUNDAY WITH SURFACE WINDS GUSTING TO 30
KTS.
OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
THE NEXT MIDWEST FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND RESTRICTIONS.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
1047 AM EST SAT NOV 12 2011
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL ALLOW FOR A DRY
WEEKEND WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
WILL RETURN THE CHANCE OF RAIN LATE ON SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A MORNING UPDATE HAS BEEN ISSUED WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING
FORECAST. SLIGHTLY WARMER TRENDS IN OBS AND LAMP MODEL GUIDANCE
HAVE LED TO HIGH TEMPS ADJUSTED UP A DEGREE.
THE LATEST RUC MID-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
IN A ZONAL 500MB FLOW, WITH A DEEP LAYER OF DRY AIR ALOFT.
UPSTREAM, A WEAK RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO
THE NORTHERN GULF STATES. AT THE SURFACE, A 1028MB HIGH IS LOCATED
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THIS HIGH IS DOMINATING THE WEATHER PATTERN
FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE HIGH AND A LOW WELL UPSTREAM ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS HAS ALLOWED FOR WINDS TO BEGIN TO GUST AT 20 TO 25 MPH THIS
MORNING. RUC 925MB WINDS INDICATE 35KTS WITH SOME DIURNAL
ADIABATIC MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE BEGINNING TO OCCUR.
TODAY...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SLOWLY SLIDE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
AS THE WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE MOVES INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. A
DEEP LAYER OF DRY AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED CLEAR SKIES
TODAY. WARM ADVECTION IN A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO WARM NICELY TODAY. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE AROUND 5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, RANGING FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS THE
EASTERN RIDGES TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS EASTERN OHIO AND NORTH-
CENTRAL WV. THE TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND
THE LOW ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL CREATE BREEZY CONDITIONS
TODAY...WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH ACROSS THE LOWLANDS AND INTO THE
30S ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
TONIGHT...A LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE WELL AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE PLAINS. CIRRUS WILL FILTER INTO THE
AREA WELL AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE A MAV/MET BLEND, AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SIMILAR SITUATION ANTICIPATED FOR SUNDAY WITH WINDY CONDITIONS AND
HIGH TEMPERATURES PROGGED ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE THE AVERAGES IN THE
WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES WILL
ALSO BE ON THE RISE LATE IN THE DAY AS A COLD FRONT IS PULLED
TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN TIER OF PBZ COUNTIES.
WITH DEEPENING TROUGH FORECAST IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS OVER THE
CENTRAL U.S...SURFACE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVER/NEAR THE
REGION BY MONDAY AND SERVE TO FOCUS SHOWERS FOR THE CLOSE OF THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. RAIN CHANCES WERE INCREASED TO LIKELY NUMBERS
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AND TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST USING
THE LATEST GFS DEPICTION OF FRONTAL PROGRESS...CONFIDENCE IN WHICH
IS MINIMAL AT MOMENT.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SPREAD BETWEEN MODELS IS BEGINNING TO DECREASE...WITH THE
ECMWF/GFS SHOWING A COLD FRONT HANGING ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...EXITING THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. WITH TIMING DIFFERENCES REMAINING...WILL
USE HIGH END CHANCE POPS INTO TUESDAY...WITH DIMINISHING
CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT. ZONAL FLOW TO LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING IS
PROGGED FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY FOR MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY WILL COOL TO
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH NO MORE THAN BROKEN
ALTOCUMULUS OR CIRRUS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
AS DAYTIME HEATING HAS INCREASED VERTICAL MIXING AND WILL HAVE
DISSIPATED SURFACE INVERSION BY 15Z-16Z, NO LONGER EXPECT LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR, BUT EXPECT SURFACE WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO GUST UP
TO 25 KTS THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND RESTRICTIONS. THE SYSTEM IS
PROJECTED TO EXIT THE AREA BY MIDWEEK, WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING
FOR WEDNESDAY.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
127 PM EST SAT NOV 12 2011
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAFS
.SYNOPSIS...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW FLOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES
BACKING MORE WESTERLY AS TROF EXTENDING FROM HUDSON BAY TO NEW
ENGLAND CONTINUES TO SHIFT E. UPSTREAM...A POTENT SHORTWAVE WAS
DROPPING THRU THE PACIFIC NW STATES. 00Z RAOBS REVEALED VERY
IMPRESSIVE 12HR HEIGHT FALLS OF 230M AT 500MB ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WAVE OVER WRN WA. DOWNSTREAM...A RIDGE IS SHIFTING OUT OVER THE WRN
PLAINS. AT THE SFC...LOW-LEVEL W TO SW FLOW HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES BTWN BROAD LOW PRES FROM THE ROCKIES TO NRN
ONTARIO AND HIGH PRES OVER THE SE STATES. ONGOING MODEST WAA IS ONLY
PRODUCING SOME SCT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE FCST AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL FEATURE A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AS
MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. COLDER WEATHER/BLO NORMAL TEMPS WILL THEN RETURN DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE NEXT POTENTIAL FOR PCPN WILL BE
TIED TO POTENT SHORTWAVE NOW OVER THE PACIFIC NW.
QUIET/WARMER WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY AS WAA CONTINUES ALONG WITH A
DECENT DISPLAY OF SUNSHINE. LINGERING...MELTING SNOW COVER WILL
TEMPER WARMING SOME OVER PARTS OF THE CNTRL AND W. HIGHS MAY REACH
THE MID 40S THERE. A FEW LOCATIONS OVER THE FAR W MAY TOP OUT AROUND
50F.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADDED BY MELTING SNOW TODAY COULD LEAD TO STRATUS
AND SOME FOG LATER TONIGHT/SUN MORNING AS SUGGESTED BY SOME OF THE
NAM/GFS MOS GUIDANCE AND BY NAM MODEL OUTPUT/SREF PROBABILITIES.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT A MILD NIGHT AS SW FLOW STRENGTHENS (850MB WINDS
INCREASE TO 40-50KT) AS DEEP LOW PRES MOVES TOWARD NRN ONTARIO.
EXPECT MINS IN THE MID 30S TO LWR 40S WITH THE WARMEST READINGS IN
THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR AND DOWNWIND OF LAKE MI IN
SRLY FLOW.
ON SUN...LOW PRES WILL MOVE ACROSS NRN ONTARIO WITH ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT MOVING ACROSS UPPER MI. STRONG SHORTWAVE NOW OVER THE PACIFIC
NW WILL ALSO SWING OUT INTO THE PLAINS TONIGHT AND THEN ROTATE INTO
THE UPPER LAKES SUN. ALTHOUGH SHORTWAVE WILL BE WEAKENING...THE
WELL-DEFINED APPEARANCE/STRONG HEIGHT FALLS PER 00Z RAOBS SUGGEST
CONTINUING TO FAVOR THE WETTER SOLUTIONS FOR SUN. MODEL CONSENSUS
DEPICTS FAIRLY STRONG DEEP LAYER QVECTOR CONVERGENCE QUICKLY LIFTING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND ERN FCST AREA AS VORT CENTER TRACKS ACROSS
SRN WI AND THRU NRN LWR MI. ALONG THE TRACK OF THE VORT CENTER...
STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 7C/KM AND SHOWALTER INDEX
AROUND OR JUST BLO 0C ARE NOTED WHICH SUGGESTS SOME CONVECTION COULD
BE ASSOCIATED WITH SYSTEM. WILL BE SOMETHING TO KEEP IN MIND IN
LATER FCSTS IF SHORTWAVE TRACKS A LITTLE FARTHER N AS SUGGESTED BY
THE HIGH RES-ARW. IN ANY EVENT...POPS WILL SHOW A GRADIENT FROM
SLIGHT CHC NW TO LIKELY SE SUN. CLOUD COVER AND PROBABLE PCPN WILL
LIMIT TEMP RISE DESPITE MILD START TO THE DAY. EXPECT MAX TEMPS OF
MID 40S TO AROUND 50.
BRIEF SHOT OF PCPN (3-6HRS) WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA BY SUN EVENING.
BEHIND COLD FRONT...CAA AND ASSOCIATED INCREASED MIXING COULD LEAD
TO WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA SUN
EVENING IN FAVORABLE WRLY FLOW (NAM/GFS BOTH SHOW 40KT WINDS WITHIN
1KFT). 850MB TEMPS BRIEFLY FALLING TO -4C WON`T BE SUFFICIENT FOR
ANY LAKE EFFECT PCPN SUN NIGHT.
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS HAS OCCASIONALLY
SUGGESTED POTENTIAL FOR PCPN MON WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTING NE
FROM LONGWAVE TROF AXIS ACROSS THE WRN PLAINS. WHILE CLOSE...BULK OF
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS PCPN WILL STAY SE OF THE FCST AREA. SO AT THIS
POINT...PLAN TO MAINTAIN A DRY FCST.
NEXT SHORTWAVE OF INTEREST WILL DROP INTO THE NRN PLAINS MON NIGHT
AND THEN TRACK THRU THE WRN GREAT LAKES LATE TUE. SYSTEM LOOKS
FAIRLY STRONG WITH 500MB HEIGHT FALLS OF AT LEAST 100M...SO LOW CHC
POPS LOOK ON TRACK WITH COLD FROPA TUE. GOOD PUSH OF CAA (850MB
TEMPS FALL TO AROUND -9C TUE NIGHT) ALONG WITH TIGHT PRES GRADIENT
WILL LEAD TO GALES ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AS 850MB WINDS ARE FCST AT
35-45KT. FAVORABLE WNW WIND DIRECTION WILL ALSO SUPPORT GUSTS OF
40-45MPH ACROSS THE KEWEENAW AND LAKESHORE AREAS EXPOSED TO A WNW
WIND. LAKE EFFECT COULD KICK INTO HIGH GEAR TUE NIGHT/WED AS 850MB
TEMPS FALL TO AROUND -9C...BUT 00Z GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW A DRY BOUNDARY
LAYER/INVERTED-V LOOK WHICH WOULD BE A BIG NEGATIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT
LES IF THAT VERIFIES. ECMWF IS MORE BULLISH WITH PCPN DOWNWIND OF
THE LAKE. IN ANY EVENT...THIS WILL BE A PERIOD TO MONITOR FOR LAKE
EFFECT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE COMING DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION /FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING AS A WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA. THE INCREASING SRLY
FLOW AND MELTING SNOW TODAY WILL COMBINE TO MOISTEN LOW LEVELS
TONIGHT. LOWER CLOUDS AND SOME FOG SHOULD DEVELOP BY LATE EVENING AT
KSAW. SOUTH WINDS WILL DELAY FORMATION OF LOW CLOUDS UNTIL NEAR
SUNRISE AT KIWD AND KCMX...BUT DECIDED TO INSERT AN MVFR CLOUD DECK
AROUND 11Z WITH CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVING BY LATE MORNING. STRONG
LOW-LEVEL WINDS JUST ABOVE INVERSION NEAR THE SFC WILL RESULT IN
WIND SHEAR AT ALL SITES BEGINNING THIS EVENING.
&&
.MARINE /FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE/...
ACTIVE PERIOD ON THE LAKE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. LOW PRESSURE
PUSHING FROM THE DAKOTAS TODAY TO ONTARIO THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BRING
A PERIOD OF STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS TO LK SUPERIOR LATE TODAY THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. STRONGEST WINDS...30 KTS WITH GALE GUSTS 35-40
KTS...WILL OCCUR OVER EASTERN HALF OF LK SUPERIOR. TROUGH TIED TO
THE LOW WILL SWING ACROSS LK SUPERIOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR
WESTERLY WINDS TO 30 KTS WITH GALE GUSTS TO 35 KTS OVR MUCH OF THE
LAKE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. YET ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY FOR WESTERLY GALE
FORCE WINDS OCCURS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN WAKE OF STRONG
COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTN.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ROLFSON
DISCUSSION...ROLFSON
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
640 AM EST SAT NOV 12 2011
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 12Z TAFS
.SYNOPSIS...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW FLOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES
BACKING MORE WESTERLY AS TROF EXTENDING FROM HUDSON BAY TO NEW
ENGLAND CONTINUES TO SHIFT E. UPSTREAM...A POTENT SHORTWAVE WAS
DROPPING THRU THE PACIFIC NW STATES. 00Z RAOBS REVEALED VERY
IMPRESSIVE 12HR HEIGHT FALLS OF 230M AT 500MB ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WAVE OVER WRN WA. DOWNSTREAM...A RIDGE IS SHIFTING OUT OVER THE WRN
PLAINS. AT THE SFC...LOW-LEVEL W TO SW FLOW HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES BTWN BROAD LOW PRES FROM THE ROCKIES TO NRN
ONTARIO AND HIGH PRES OVER THE SE STATES. ONGOING MODEST WAA IS ONLY
PRODUCING SOME SCT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE FCST AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL FEATURE A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AS
MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. COLDER WEATHER/BLO NORMAL TEMPS WILL THEN RETURN DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE NEXT POTENTIAL FOR PCPN WILL BE
TIED TO POTENT SHORTWAVE NOW OVER THE PACIFIC NW.
QUIET/WARMER WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY AS WAA CONTINUES ALONG WITH A
DECENT DISPLAY OF SUNSHINE. LINGERING...MELTING SNOW COVER WILL
TEMPER WARMING SOME OVER PARTS OF THE CNTRL AND W. HIGHS MAY REACH
THE MID 40S THERE. A FEW LOCATIONS OVER THE FAR W MAY TOP OUT AROUND
50F.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADDED BY MELTING SNOW TODAY COULD LEAD TO STRATUS
AND SOME FOG LATER TONIGHT/SUN MORNING AS SUGGESTED BY SOME OF THE
NAM/GFS MOS GUIDANCE AND BY NAM MODEL OUTPUT/SREF PROBABILITIES.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT A MILD NIGHT AS SW FLOW STRENGTHENS (850MB WINDS
INCREASE TO 40-50KT) AS DEEP LOW PRES MOVES TOWARD NRN ONTARIO.
EXPECT MINS IN THE MID 30S TO LWR 40S WITH THE WARMEST READINGS IN
THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR AND DOWNWIND OF LAKE MI IN
SRLY FLOW.
ON SUN...LOW PRES WILL MOVE ACROSS NRN ONTARIO WITH ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT MOVING ACROSS UPPER MI. STRONG SHORTWAVE NOW OVER THE PACIFIC
NW WILL ALSO SWING OUT INTO THE PLAINS TONIGHT AND THEN ROTATE INTO
THE UPPER LAKES SUN. ALTHOUGH SHORTWAVE WILL BE WEAKENING...THE
WELL-DEFINED APPEARANCE/STRONG HEIGHT FALLS PER 00Z RAOBS SUGGEST
CONTINUING TO FAVOR THE WETTER SOLUTIONS FOR SUN. MODEL CONSENSUS
DEPICTS FAIRLY STRONG DEEP LAYER QVECTOR CONVERGENCE QUICKLY LIFTING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND ERN FCST AREA AS VORT CENTER TRACKS ACROSS
SRN WI AND THRU NRN LWR MI. ALONG THE TRACK OF THE VORT CENTER...
STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 7C/KM AND SHOWALTER INDEX
AROUND OR JUST BLO 0C ARE NOTED WHICH SUGGESTS SOME CONVECTION COULD
BE ASSOCIATED WITH SYSTEM. WILL BE SOMETHING TO KEEP IN MIND IN
LATER FCSTS IF SHORTWAVE TRACKS A LITTLE FARTHER N AS SUGGESTED BY
THE HIGH RES-ARW. IN ANY EVENT...POPS WILL SHOW A GRADIENT FROM
SLIGHT CHC NW TO LIKELY SE SUN. CLOUD COVER AND PROBABLE PCPN WILL
LIMIT TEMP RISE DESPITE MILD START TO THE DAY. EXPECT MAX TEMPS OF
MID 40S TO AROUND 50.
BRIEF SHOT OF PCPN (3-6HRS) WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA BY SUN EVENING.
BEHIND COLD FRONT...CAA AND ASSOCIATED INCREASED MIXING COULD LEAD
TO WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA SUN
EVENING IN FAVORABLE WRLY FLOW (NAM/GFS BOTH SHOW 40KT WINDS WITHIN
1KFT). 850MB TEMPS BRIEFLY FALLING TO -4C WON`T BE SUFFICIENT FOR
ANY LAKE EFFECT PCPN SUN NIGHT.
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS HAS OCCASIONALLY
SUGGESTED POTENTIAL FOR PCPN MON WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTING NE
FROM LONGWAVE TROF AXIS ACROSS THE WRN PLAINS. WHILE CLOSE...BULK OF
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS PCPN WILL STAY SE OF THE FCST AREA. SO AT THIS
POINT...PLAN TO MAINTAIN A DRY FCST.
NEXT SHORTWAVE OF INTEREST WILL DROP INTO THE NRN PLAINS MON NIGHT
AND THEN TRACK THRU THE WRN GREAT LAKES LATE TUE. SYSTEM LOOKS
FAIRLY STRONG WITH 500MB HEIGHT FALLS OF AT LEAST 100M...SO LOW CHC
POPS LOOK ON TRACK WITH COLD FROPA TUE. GOOD PUSH OF CAA (850MB
TEMPS FALL TO AROUND -9C TUE NIGHT) ALONG WITH TIGHT PRES GRADIENT
WILL LEAD TO GALES ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AS 850MB WINDS ARE FCST AT
35-45KT. FAVORABLE WNW WIND DIRECTION WILL ALSO SUPPORT GUSTS OF
40-45MPH ACROSS THE KEWEENAW AND LAKESHORE AREAS EXPOSED TO A WNW
WIND. LAKE EFFECT COULD KICK INTO HIGH GEAR TUE NIGHT/WED AS 850MB
TEMPS FALL TO AROUND -9C...BUT 00Z GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW A DRY BOUNDARY
LAYER/INVERTED-V LOOK WHICH WOULD BE A BIG NEGATIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT
LES IF THAT VERIFIES. ECMWF IS MORE BULLISH WITH PCPN DOWNWIND OF
THE LAKE. IN ANY EVENT...THIS WILL BE A PERIOD TO MONITOR FOR LAKE
EFFECT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE COMING DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION /FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING AS A WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA AND WINDS BECOME SRLY
AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS. THE SRLY FLOW
AND MELTING SNOW TODAY COMBINE TO MOISTEN LOW LEVELS TONIGHT. LOWER
CLOUDS AND SOME FOG SHOULD DEVELOP BY LATE EVENING AT KSAW. SOUTH
WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP AT KIWD AND KCMX...
SO HAVE KEPT WITH VFR CONDITIONS. STRONG LOW-LEVEL WINDS JUST ABOVE
SHARP NEAR SFC BASED INVERSION WILL RESULT IN WIND SHEAR AT ALL SITES
BEGINNING THIS EVENING.
&&
.MARINE /FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE/...
ACTIVE PERIOD ON THE LAKE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. LOW PRESSURE
PUSHING FROM THE DAKOTAS TODAY TO ONTARIO THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BRING
A PERIOD OF STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS TO LK SUPERIOR LATE TODAY THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. STRONGEST WINDS...30 KTS WITH GALE GUSTS 35-40
KTS...WILL OCCUR OVER EASTERN HALF OF LK SUPERIOR. TROUGH TIED TO
THE LOW WILL SWING ACROSS LK SUPERIOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR
WESTERLY WINDS TO 30 KTS WITH GALE GUSTS TO 35 KTS OVR MUCH OF THE
LAKE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. YET ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY FOR WESTERLY GALE
FORCE WINDS OCCURS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN WAKE OF STRONG
COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTN.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ROLFSON
DISCUSSION...ROLFSON
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
457 AM EST SAT NOV 12 2011
.SYNOPSIS...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW FLOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES
BACKING MORE WESTERLY AS TROF EXTENDING FROM HUDSON BAY TO NEW
ENGLAND CONTINUES TO SHIFT E. UPSTREAM...A POTENT SHORTWAVE WAS
DROPPING THRU THE PACIFIC NW STATES. 00Z RAOBS REVEALED VERY
IMPRESSIVE 12HR HEIGHT FALLS OF 230M AT 500MB ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WAVE OVER WRN WA. DOWNSTREAM...A RIDGE IS SHIFTING OUT OVER THE WRN
PLAINS. AT THE SFC...LOW-LEVEL W TO SW FLOW HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES BTWN BROAD LOW PRES FROM THE ROCKIES TO NRN
ONTARIO AND HIGH PRES OVER THE SE STATES. ONGOING MODEST WAA IS ONLY
PRODUCING SOME SCT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE FCST AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL FEATURE A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AS
MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. COLDER WEATHER/BLO NORMAL TEMPS WILL THEN RETURN DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE NEXT POTENTIAL FOR PCPN WILL BE
TIED TO POTENT SHORTWAVE NOW OVER THE PACIFIC NW.
QUIET/WARMER WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY AS WAA CONTINUES ALONG WITH A
DECENT DISPLAY OF SUNSHINE. LINGERING...MELTING SNOW COVER WILL
TEMPER WARMING SOME OVER PARTS OF THE CNTRL AND W. HIGHS MAY REACH
THE MID 40S THERE. A FEW LOCATIONS OVER THE FAR W MAY TOP OUT AROUND
50F.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADDED BY MELTING SNOW TODAY COULD LEAD TO STRATUS
AND SOME FOG LATER TONIGHT/SUN MORNING AS SUGGESTED BY SOME OF THE
NAM/GFS MOS GUIDANCE AND BY NAM MODEL OUTPUT/SREF PROBABILITIES.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT A MILD NIGHT AS SW FLOW STRENGTHENS (850MB WINDS
INCREASE TO 40-50KT) AS DEEP LOW PRES MOVES TOWARD NRN ONTARIO.
EXPECT MINS IN THE MID 30S TO LWR 40S WITH THE WARMEST READINGS IN
THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR AND DOWNWIND OF LAKE MI IN
SRLY FLOW.
ON SUN...LOW PRES WILL MOVE ACROSS NRN ONTARIO WITH ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT MOVING ACROSS UPPER MI. STRONG SHORTWAVE NOW OVER THE PACIFIC
NW WILL ALSO SWING OUT INTO THE PLAINS TONIGHT AND THEN ROTATE INTO
THE UPPER LAKES SUN. ALTHOUGH SHORTWAVE WILL BE WEAKENING...THE
WELL-DEFINED APPEARANCE/STRONG HEIGHT FALLS PER 00Z RAOBS SUGGEST
CONTINUING TO FAVOR THE WETTER SOLUTIONS FOR SUN. MODEL CONSENSUS
DEPICTS FAIRLY STRONG DEEP LAYER QVECTOR CONVERGENCE QUICKLY LIFTING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND ERN FCST AREA AS VORT CENTER TRACKS ACROSS
SRN WI AND THRU NRN LWR MI. ALONG THE TRACK OF THE VORT CENTER...
STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 7C/KM AND SHOWALTER INDEX
AROUND OR JUST BLO 0C ARE NOTED WHICH SUGGESTS SOME CONVECTION COULD
BE ASSOCIATED WITH SYSTEM. WILL BE SOMETHING TO KEEP IN MIND IN
LATER FCSTS IF SHORTWAVE TRACKS A LITTLE FARTHER N AS SUGGESTED BY
THE HIGH RES-ARW. IN ANY EVENT...POPS WILL SHOW A GRADIENT FROM
SLIGHT CHC NW TO LIKELY SE SUN. CLOUD COVER AND PROBABLE PCPN WILL
LIMIT TEMP RISE DESPITE MILD START TO THE DAY. EXPECT MAX TEMPS OF
MID 40S TO AROUND 50.
BRIEF SHOT OF PCPN (3-6HRS) WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA BY SUN EVENING.
BEHIND COLD FRONT...CAA AND ASSOCIATED INCREASED MIXING COULD LEAD
TO WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA SUN
EVENING IN FAVORABLE WRLY FLOW (NAM/GFS BOTH SHOW 40KT WINDS WITHIN
1KFT). 850MB TEMPS BRIEFLY FALLING TO -4C WON`T BE SUFFICIENT FOR
ANY LAKE EFFECT PCPN SUN NIGHT.
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS HAS OCCASIONALLY
SUGGESTED POTENTIAL FOR PCPN MON WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTING NE
FROM LONGWAVE TROF AXIS ACROSS THE WRN PLAINS. WHILE CLOSE...BULK OF
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS PCPN WILL STAY SE OF THE FCST AREA. SO AT THIS
POINT...PLAN TO MAINTAIN A DRY FCST.
NEXT SHORTWAVE OF INTEREST WILL DROP INTO THE NRN PLAINS MON NIGHT
AND THEN TRACK THRU THE WRN GREAT LAKES LATE TUE. SYSTEM LOOKS
FAIRLY STRONG WITH 500MB HEIGHT FALLS OF AT LEAST 100M...SO LOW CHC
POPS LOOK ON TRACK WITH COLD FROPA TUE. GOOD PUSH OF CAA (850MB
TEMPS FALL TO AROUND -9C TUE NIGHT) ALONG WITH TIGHT PRES GRADIENT
WILL LEAD TO GALES ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AS 850MB WINDS ARE FCST AT
35-45KT. FAVORABLE WNW WIND DIRECTION WILL ALSO SUPPORT GUSTS OF
40-45MPH ACROSS THE KEWEENAW AND LAKESHORE AREAS EXPOSED TO A WNW
WIND. LAKE EFFECT COULD KICK INTO HIGH GEAR TUE NIGHT/WED AS 850MB
TEMPS FALL TO AROUND -9C...BUT 00Z GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW A DRY BOUNDARY
LAYER/INVERTED-V LOOK WHICH WOULD BE A BIG NEGATIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT
LES IF THAT VERIFIES. ECMWF IS MORE BULLISH WITH PCPN DOWNWIND OF
THE LAKE. IN ANY EVENT...THIS WILL BE A PERIOD TO MONITOR FOR LAKE
EFFECT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE COMING DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION /FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A
WEAK RIDGE SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA AND WINDS BECOME SRLY AHEAD OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS. THE SRLY FLOW WILL BRING
A RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
SOME LOWER CLOUDS AND FOG MAY DEVELOP BY LATE EVENING AT KSAW...BUT
SHOULD BE MORE LIKELY AFT 06Z.
&&
.MARINE /FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE/...
ACTIVE PERIOD ON THE LAKE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. LOW PRESSURE
PUSHING FROM THE DAKOTAS TODAY TO ONTARIO THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BRING
A PERIOD OF STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS TO LK SUPERIOR LATE TODAY THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. STRONGEST WINDS...30 KTS WITH GALE GUSTS 35-40
KTS...WILL OCCUR OVER EASTERN HALF OF LK SUPERIOR. TROUGH TIED TO
THE LOW WILL SWING ACROSS LK SUPERIOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR
WESTERLY WINDS TO 30 KTS WITH GALE GUSTS TO 35 KTS OVR MUCH OF THE
LAKE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. YET ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY FOR WESTERLY GALE
FORCE WINDS OCCURS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN WAKE OF STRONG
COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTN.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ROLFSON
DISCUSSION...ROLFSON
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1130 AM CST SAT NOV 12 2011
.UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...
.DISCUSSION...
A RATHER UNEVENTFUL FORECAST WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT
WEEK...WITH THE MAIN FOCUS OF THIS FORECAST SPENT ON POPS SUNDAY
MORNING WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. WILL SEE ANOTHER DAY OF
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY...BEFORE TEMPS FALL BACK
CLOSER TO NORMAL/BELOW NORMAL FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK AS A MORE
ZONAL FLOW SETS UP ACROSS THE MIDWEST.
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS TO WAVES OF INTEREST FOR THE
NEXT 30 HRS OR SO. THE FIRST ONE IS RATHER WEAK AND MOVING THROUGH
CO AT THE MOMENT...WITH A MUCH STRONGER WAVE NOW MOVING INTO ID.
BY THIS AFTERNOON...THE RUC HAS THE CO WAVE REACHING SW MN. WHERE
THIS WILL CAUSE TROUBLE IS WITH HIGHS FOR TODAY. H85 TEMPS BY ALL
ACCOUNTS WILL BE AROUND +10C /ABOUT 1.5 STAND DEV ABOVE
NORMAL/...WHICH UNDER CLEAR SKIES WOULD EASILY NET HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HOWEVER...CO WAVE LOOKS TO BRING IN A FAIRLY
DENSE BAND OF CI/CS. GIVEN LOW SUN ANGLE THIS TIME OF YEAR AND
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER...DID GO A LITTLE BELOW GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS
TODAY...BUT FOR MANY AREAS THEY SHOULD STILL BE WITHIN 5 DEGREES
OR SO OF RECORDS. OTHER ISSUE TO WATCH TODAY WILL BE DEWPS. SAW
DEWPS YESTERDAY AFTERNOON TO THE W AND SW CRASH INTO THE TEENS /IN
FACT THEY ARE STILL THERE NOW/ AND ML DEWPS ALONG WITH FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM WOULD INDICATE THAT MOST OF THE MN CWA
COULD SEE SIMILAR VALUES TODAY. DID BUMP DEWPS DOWN AS A
RESULT...BUT MAY NOT HAVE BEEN ENOUGH. WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO PICK
UP TO BETWEEN 15 TO 20 MPH AND AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES CRASHING INTO
THE 20S...WILL BE A DECENT FIRE WEATHER DAY ONCE AGAIN FOR
NOVEMBER STANDARDS.
FOR TONIGHT...CO WAVE WILL LEAVE US WITH AMPLE CLOUD COVER AS ID
WAVE AND ASSOCIATED PV PUNCH MOVE INTO THE DAKOTAS. SUB 985 MB SFC
LOW WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...WITH ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING INTO WRN MN AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE CLOUD
COVER ALONG WITH CONTINUED SRLY WINDS WILL HOLD OVERNIGHT LOWS
TONIGHT UP NEAR THE AVERAGE HIGHS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. PRECIP
LOOKS TO MAINLY HOLD OFF UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING...WHEN STRONG PV
ANOMALY AND ASSOCIATED PVA MOVE ACROSS SRN MN. FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT AMONGST DETERMINISTIC MODES IN BAND OF SHOWERS MOVING
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MN INTO WEST CENTRAL WI BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z
SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE PV PUNCH. HOWEVER...HELD POPS BACK IN THE
30S. THERE ARE A FEW REASONS FOR GOING UNDER GUIDANCE. FIRST AND
FOREMOST...ANTECEDENT AIRMASS WILL BE EXTREMELY DRY AND ONCE AGAIN
CONSIDERABLE WORK WILL NEED TO BE DONE TO MOISTEN THE ATMO COLUMN.
WE HAVE SEEN THIS SITUATION NUMEROUS TIMES THIS FALL...AND MOST OF
THE TIME THE DRY AIR WINS OUT...ESPECIALLY WHEN THE FORCING IS
SHORT LIVED...AS THIS IS FORECAST TO BE. IN ADDITION...STRONG LLJ
/BETTER THAN 50 KTS/ AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE TRANSPORT ARE
FORECAST TO MOVE FROM MO SAT NIGHT TO THE LK MICH REGION SUNDAY
MORNING. THE SNOW STORM THAT WAS NOT EARLIER IN THE WEEK HAD A
SIMILAR PATH TO ITS LLJ/MOISTURE TRANSPORT...AND ALL ASSOCIATED
PRECIP FELL SE OF THE MPX CWA. IF ANYTHING WERE TO FALL IN THE
AREA...AMOUNTS WOULD BE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. IN ADDITION
LOW-LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES WOULD PRODUCE AN ALL LIQUID EVENT AS
WELL...SO REMOVED ANY RA/SN MIX MENTION.
NEXT SMALL TWEAK MADE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO ADD SOME SMALL POPS
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A RATHER STRONG SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY. BEHIND THE
FRONT...NW FLOW WILL SET UP FOR THE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
PERIOD WITH RATHER COOL...THOUGH DRY AIR COMING IN FOR THE MIDDLE
PART OF NEXT WEEK. WITH H85 TEMPS FALLING TO AROUND -10C BY
WEDNESDAY...WILL BE A STRUGGLE TO HIT THE 40 DEGREE MARK WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND...
GFS/ECMWF BOTH START DIGGING A RATHER DEEP TROUGH OVER THE PAC
NW...WITH W/WSW FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. THIS WILL
HAVE TWO EFFECTS. ONE...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND BACK TO
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND. TWO...BY THE WEEKEND
BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF ARE SPINNING UP QUITE THE IMPRESSIVE LEE SIDE
LOW OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. LOTS OF DISAGREEMENT ON THE
DETAILS THIS FAR OUT...BUT THERE IS THE GENERAL IDEA THAT NEXT
WEEKEND COULD BRING THE NEXT SHOT AT SEEING SOME PRECIP IN THE
AREA.
&&
.AVIATION... /18Z TAF ISSUANCE/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE BULK OF THE PERIOD.
EXPECTING CLOUDS HEIGHTS TO LOWER OVER ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA AS SYSTEM MOVES IN LATER TONIGHT. SHOULD DROP TO 8-10K
FEET 08Z-12Z BEST SHOT OF RAIN MOVING MAINLY SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES.
WILL CONTINUE TREND OF VCSH BOTH KMSP AND KEAU FOR THE INTERIM.
WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND GUTS TO AROUND 20KTS
AT SOUTHERN SITES AND THEN SWITCH TO SOUTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY
WEST/NORTHWEST WITH PASSAGE OF FRONT OVERNIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING. SOME
GUSTS AROUND 20KTS POSSIBLE BEHIND COLD FRONT AS WELL. SMALL CHANCE
OF STRATOCUMULUS DECK NEAR THE KAXN AREA SUNDAY MORNING. LEFT AS
SCATTERED 1500FT BECAUSE OF LOWER CONFIDENCE.
KMSP...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS A SMALL THREAT OF
SHOWERS 13Z-17Z SUNDAY MORNING AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH. SOUTHERLY
WINDS INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH A FEW GUSTS 18-20KTS
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. WIND SWITCHES TO MORE SOUTHWEST TO WEST
SUNDAY MORNING AND WILL LIKELY BECOME A BIT GUSTY AS WELL WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
MPG/DWE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
510 AM CST SAT NOV 12 2011
.DISCUSSION...
A RATHER UNEVENTFUL FORECAST WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT
WEEK...WITH THE MAIN FOCUS OF THIS FORECAST SPENT ON POPS SUNDAY
MORNING WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. WILL SEE ANOTHER DAY OF
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY...BEFORE TEMPS FALL BACK
CLOSER TO NORMAL/BELOW NORMAL FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK AS A MORE
ZONAL FLOW SETS UP ACROSS THE MIDWEST.
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS TO WAVES OF INTEREST FOR THE
NEXT 30 HRS OR SO. THE FIRST ONE IS RATHER WEAK AND MOVING THROUGH
CO AT THE MOMENT...WITH A MUCH STRONGER WAVE NOW MOVING INTO ID.
BY THIS AFTERNOON...THE RUC HAS THE CO WAVE REACHING SW MN. WHERE
THIS WILL CAUSE TROUBLE IS WITH HIGHS FOR TODAY. H85 TEMPS BY ALL
ACCOUNTS WILL BE AROUND +10C /ABOUT 1.5 STAND DEV ABOVE
NORMAL/...WHICH UNDER CLEAR SKIES WOULD EASILY NET HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HOWEVER...CO WAVE LOOKS TO BRING IN A FAIRLY
DENSE BAND OF CI/CS. GIVEN LOW SUN ANGLE THIS TIME OF YEAR AND
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER...DID GO A LITTLE BELOW GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS
TODAY...BUT FOR MANY AREAS THEY SHOULD STILL BE WITHIN 5 DEGREES
OR SO OF RECORDS. OTHER ISSUE TO WATCH TODAY WILL BE DEWPS. SAW
DEWPS YESTERDAY AFTERNOON TO THE W AND SW CRASH INTO THE TEENS /IN
FACT THEY ARE STILL THERE NOW/ AND ML DEWPS ALONG WITH FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM WOULD INDICATE THAT MOST OF THE MN CWA
COULD SEE SIMILAR VALUES TODAY. DID BUMP DEWPS DOWN AS A
RESULT...BUT MAY NOT HAVE BEEN ENOUGH. WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO PICK
UP TO BETWEEN 15 TO 20 MPH AND AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES CRASHING INTO
THE 20S...WILL BE A DECENT FIRE WEATHER DAY ONCE AGAIN FOR
NOVEMBER STANDARDS.
FOR TONIGHT...CO WAVE WILL LEAVE US WITH AMPLE CLOUD COVER AS ID
WAVE AND ASSOCIATED PV PUNCH MOVE INTO THE DAKOTAS. SUB 985 MB SFC
LOW WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...WITH ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING INTO WRN MN AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE CLOUD
COVER ALONG WITH CONTINUED SRLY WINDS WILL HOLD OVERNIGHT LOWS
TONIGHT UP NEAR THE AVERAGE HIGHS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. PRECIP
LOOKS TO MAINLY HOLD OFF UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING...WHEN STRONG PV
ANOMALY AND ASSOCIATED PVA MOVE ACROSS SRN MN. FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT AMONGST DETERMINISTIC MODES IN BAND OF SHOWERS MOVING
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MN INTO WEST CENTRAL WI BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z
SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE PV PUNCH. HOWEVER...HELD POPS BACK IN THE
30S. THERE ARE A FEW REASONS FOR GOING UNDER GUIDANCE. FIRST AND
FOREMOST...ANTECEDENT AIRMASS WILL BE EXTREMELY DRY AND ONCE AGAIN
CONSIDERABLE WORK WILL NEED TO BE DONE TO MOISTEN THE ATMO COLUMN.
WE HAVE SEEN THIS SITUATION NUMEROUS TIMES THIS FALL...AND MOST OF
THE TIME THE DRY AIR WINS OUT...ESPECIALLY WHEN THE FORCING IS
SHORT LIVED...AS THIS IS FORECAST TO BE. IN ADDITION...STRONG LLJ
/BETTER THAN 50 KTS/ AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE TRANSPORT ARE
FORECAST TO MOVE FROM MO SAT NIGHT TO THE LK MICH REGION SUNDAY
MORNING. THE SNOW STORM THAT WAS NOT EARLIER IN THE WEEK HAD A
SIMILAR PATH TO ITS LLJ/MOISTURE TRANSPORT...AND ALL ASSOCIATED
PRECIP FELL SE OF THE MPX CWA. IF ANYTHING WERE TO FALL IN THE
AREA...AMOUNTS WOULD BE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. IN ADDITION
LOW-LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES WOULD PRODUCE AN ALL LIQUID EVENT AS
WELL...SO REMOVED ANY RA/SN MIX MENTION.
NEXT SMALL TWEAK MADE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO ADD SOME SMALL POPS
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A RATHER STRONG SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY. BEHIND THE
FRONT...NW FLOW WILL SET UP FOR THE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
PERIOD WITH RATHER COOL...THOUGH DRY AIR COMING IN FOR THE MIDDLE
PART OF NEXT WEEK. WITH H85 TEMPS FALLING TO AROUND -10C BY
WEDNESDAY...WILL BE A STRUGGLE TO HIT THE 40 DEGREE MARK WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND...
GFS/ECMWF BOTH START DIGGING A RATHER DEEP TROUGH OVER THE PAC
NW...WITH W/WSW FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. THIS WILL
HAVE TWO EFFECTS. ONE...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND BACK TO
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND. TWO...BY THE WEEKEND
BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF ARE SPINNING UP QUITE THE IMPRESSIVE LEE SIDE
LOW OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. LOTS OF DISAGREEMENT ON THE
DETAILS THIS FAR OUT...BUT THERE IS THE GENERAL IDEA THAT NEXT
WEEKEND COULD BRING THE NEXT SHOT AT SEEING SOME PRECIP IN THE
AREA.
&&
.AVIATION... /12Z TAF ISSUANCE/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE BULK OF THE PERIOD.
CLOUDS AND CEILING HEIGHTS SHOULD GENERALLY BE AT OR ABOVE 10K AGL.
SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS NEAR 30
KNOTS BY MID AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN SECTION MN. SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...WILL BRING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
TO PARTS OF SOUTHWEST MN LATER TONIGHT AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY MORNING.
KMSP...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS A SOME SMALL THREAT OF
SHOWERS SUNDAY MORNING. SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS
THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
MPG/JM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
408 AM CST SAT NOV 12 2011
.DISCUSSION...
A RATHER UNEVENTFUL FORECAST WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT
WEEK...WITH THE MAIN FOCUS OF THIS FORECAST SPENT ON POPS SUNDAY
MORNING WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. WILL SEE ANOTHER DAY OF
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY...BEFORE TEMPS FALL BACK
CLOSER TO NORMAL/BELOW NORMAL FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK AS A MORE
ZONAL FLOW SETS UP ACROSS THE MIDWEST.
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS TO WAVES OF INTEREST FOR THE
NEXT 30 HRS OR SO. THE FIRST ONE IS RATHER WEAK AND MOVING THROUGH
CO AT THE MOMENT...WITH A MUCH STRONGER WAVE NOW MOVING INTO ID.
BY THIS AFTERNOON...THE RUC HAS THE CO WAVE REACHING SW MN. WHERE
THIS WILL CAUSE TROUBLE IS WITH HIGHS FOR TODAY. H85 TEMPS BY ALL
ACCOUNTS WILL BE AROUND +10C /ABOUT 1.5 STAND DEV ABOVE
NORMAL/...WHICH UNDER CLEAR SKIES WOULD EASILY NET HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HOWEVER...CO WAVE LOOKS TO BRING IN A FAIRLY
DENSE BAND OF CI/CS. GIVEN LOW SUN ANGLE THIS TIME OF YEAR AND
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER...DID GO A LITTLE BELOW GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS
TODAY...BUT FOR MANY AREAS THEY SHOULD STILL BE WITHIN 5 DEGREES
OR SO OF RECORDS. OTHER ISSUE TO WATCH TODAY WILL BE DEWPS. SAW
DEWPS YESTERDAY AFTERNOON TO THE W AND SW CRASH INTO THE TEENS /IN
FACT THEY ARE STILL THERE NOW/ AND ML DEWPS ALONG WITH FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM WOULD INDICATE THAT MOST OF THE MN CWA
COULD SEE SIMILAR VALUES TODAY. DID BUMP DEWPS DOWN AS A
RESULT...BUT MAY NOT HAVE BEEN ENOUGH. WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO PICK
UP TO BETWEEN 15 TO 20 MPH AND AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES CRASHING INTO
THE 20S...WILL BE A DECENT FIRE WEATHER DAY ONCE AGAIN FOR
NOVEMBER STANDARDS.
FOR TONIGHT...CO WAVE WILL LEAVE US WITH AMPLE CLOUD COVER AS ID
WAVE AND ASSOCIATED PV PUNCH MOVE INTO THE DAKOTAS. SUB 985 MB SFC
LOW WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...WITH ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING INTO WRN MN AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE CLOUD
COVER ALONG WITH CONTINUED SRLY WINDS WILL HOLD OVERNIGHT LOWS
TONIGHT UP NEAR THE AVERAGE HIGHS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. PRECIP
LOOKS TO MAINLY HOLD OFF UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING...WHEN STRONG PV
ANOMALY AND ASSOCIATED PVA MOVE ACROSS SRN MN. FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT AMONGST DETERMINISTIC MODES IN BAND OF SHOWERS MOVING
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MN INTO WEST CENTRAL WI BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z
SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE PV PUNCH. HOWEVER...HELD POPS BACK IN THE
30S. THERE ARE A FEW REASONS FOR GOING UNDER GUIDANCE. FIRST AND
FOREMOST...ANTECEDENT AIRMASS WILL BE EXTREMELY DRY AND ONCE AGAIN
CONSIDERABLE WORK WILL NEED TO BE DONE TO MOISTEN THE ATMO COLUMN.
WE HAVE SEEN THIS SITUATION NUMEROUS TIMES THIS FALL...AND MOST OF
THE TIME THE DRY AIR WINS OUT...ESPECIALLY WHEN THE FORCING IS
SHORT LIVED...AS THIS IS FORECAST TO BE. IN ADDITION...STRONG LLJ
/BETTER THAN 50 KTS/ AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE TRANSPORT ARE
FORECAST TO MOVE FROM MO SAT NIGHT TO THE LK MICH REGION SUNDAY
MORNING. THE SNOW STORM THAT WAS NOT EARLIER IN THE WEEK HAD A
SIMILAR PATH TO ITS LLJ/MOISTURE TRANSPORT...AND ALL ASSOCIATED
PRECIP FELL SE OF THE MPX CWA. IF ANYTHING WERE TO FALL IN THE
AREA...AMOUNTS WOULD BE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. IN ADDITION
LOW-LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES WOULD PRODUCE AN ALL LIQUID EVENT AS
WELL...SO REMOVED ANY RA/SN MIX MENTION.
NEXT SMALL TWEAK MADE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO ADD SOME SMALL POPS
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A RATHER STRONG SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY. BEHIND THE
FRONT...NW FLOW WILL SET UP FOR THE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
PERIOD WITH RATHER COOL...THOUGH DRY AIR COMING IN FOR THE MIDDLE
PART OF NEXT WEEK. WITH H85 TEMPS FALLING TO AROUND -10C BY
WEDNESDAY...WILL BE A STRUGGLE TO HIT THE 40 DEGREE MARK WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND...
GFS/ECMWF BOTH START DIGGING A RATHER DEEP TROUGH OVER THE PAC
NW...WITH W/WSW FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. THIS WILL
HAVE TWO EFFECTS. ONE...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND BACK TO
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND. TWO...BY THE WEEKEND
BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF ARE SPINNING UP QUITE THE IMPRESSIVE LEE SIDE
LOW OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. LOTS OF DISAGREEMENT ON THE
DETAILS THIS FAR OUT...BUT THERE IS THE GENERAL IDEA THAT NEXT
WEEKEND COULD BRING THE NEXT SHOT AT SEEING SOME PRECIP IN THE
AREA.
&&
.AVIATION... /06Z TAF ISSUANCE/
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING TO 10 TO 15
KNOTS SATURDAY MORNING. GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS LIKELY FOR THE MN TAF
SITES DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. CLOUDINESS WILL
THICKEN DURING THE DAY BUT CEILINGS WILL BE AT OR ABOVE 100
THROUGH THE END OF TAF PERIOD. BEYOND THE END OF THE TAF
(13/06)...A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE MN TAF SITES BETWEEN
13/06Z-12Z AND THROUGH KRNH AND KEAU BETWEEN 13/12Z-18Z. SOME
RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH.
KMSP...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. SMALL THREAT AT THIS POINT FOR RAIN
SHOWERS TOWARDS DAYBREAK SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
MAIN CONCERN FOR SATURDAY IS THE WIND SPEED DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. SPEEDS OF 12-15 KNOTS LIKELY ALONG WITH SOME GUSTS UP
TO 23 KNOTS. THE STRONGEST WINDS MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL 22Z-23Z TIME
FRAME AND LAST INTO THE EVENING.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
MPG/RAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1214 PM CST SAT NOV 12 2011
.AVIATION...18Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KLNK AND KOFK.
A WEATHER SYSTEM OVER MONTANA WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA
TONIGHT AND WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH. VFR CONDITIONS WITH MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL PUSH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL
INCREASE AGAIN TONIGHT WITH THE STORM SYSTEM. SOUTH WINDS TODAY AT
10 TO 20KT WILL SETTLE DOWN TO SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST 5 TO 15KTS THIS
EVENING. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THRU KOFK AROUND 07-08Z AND AT KOMA AND
KLNK 10-12Z. STRONGER WEST OR NORTHWEST WINDS WILL MIX DOWN AND
INCREASED WINDS TO 15 TO 30KTS BEHIND THE FRONT. INCLUDED SCATTERED
SHOWERS AT KOFK BETWEEN 08-12Z.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION.../257 AM CST SAT NOV 12 2011/
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT...AND TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES.
STRONG MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA THAT MOVED OUT OF THE GULF OF
ALASKA YESTERDAY WAS DIVING THROUGH WASHINGTON AND INTO IDAHO THIS
MORNING. RUC SUGGESTS TROP PRESSURES AROUND 600MB ACCOMPANIED THIS
SYSTEM...OWING TO INTENSITY OF SYSTEM. NAM SEEMED TO HAVE BEST
HANDLE ON INTENSITY...WITH ECMWF A LITTLE STRONGER AND GFS
SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKER. HOWEVER ALL MODELS WERE SIMILAR IN PROGRESSING
SYSTEM THROUGH THE ROCKIES TODAY AND ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA
OVERNIGHT.
WILL HAVE A SHORT PERIOD OF INTENSE LIFT AS THIS PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM
ROLLS THROUGH. MODELS SHOW STRONG ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE NEAR AND AFTER
MIDNIGHT ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...WITH THIS AREA SHIFTING EAST BY
12Z. MODEL MOISTURE PROFILES ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE...BUT ARE USUALLY
WAY UNDERDONE WITH STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW SYSTEMS. SO EXPECT
PRECIPITATION TO COMMENCE SOMETIME AROUND MIDNIGHT OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF EASTERN NEBRASKA THEN SPREADING INTO WEST CENTRAL IOWA
SHORTLY AFTER. RELATIVELY WARM LOW LEVELS INITIALLY WILL KEEP
PRECIPITATION LIQUID...BUT DYNAMIC COOLING NEAR CORE OF UPPER LOW
WILL LIKELY OVERCOME WARM SURFACE LAYER ALLOWING SNOW TO OCCUR OVER
OUR FAR NORTHERN CWA. AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH SNOWFALL GIVEN WARM
GROUND AND INITIAL LIQUID PRECIPITATION...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
TO SEE A HALF INCH OR SO IN SOME AREAS.
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL HELP WARM TEMPS
TOWARD 60 AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. MORE MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CUT
DOWN ON INSOLATION...SO NOT EXPECTING HIGHS QUITE AS MILD AS FRIDAY.
RELATIVELY MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE ALSO EXPECTED GIVEN CLOUD COVER
AND MIXING OF LOW LEVEL AIR.
AFTER PRECIP ENDS EARLY SUNDAY...A SWITCH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
BRING COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION. A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS EARLY IN
THE DAY LOOKS IN ORDER BEFORE UPPER SYSTEM LIFTS TOWARD THE GREAT
LAKES. OTHERWISE...850 TEMPS DROP TO NEAR 0C JUST NORTH OF THE
NEBRASKA BORDER...AND NEAR 5C IN THE SOUTH. DECENT MIXING SHOULD
STILL PUT HIGHS IN THE 50S MOST AREAS.
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL DIVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. AHEAD
OF IT...SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW AND SUNSHINE WILL PUT HIGHS AGAIN
IN THE 50S. BUT HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 50 TUESDAY IN COLD AIR
BEHIND FRONT. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK AS BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
COUNTRY GRADUALLY LIFTS NORTHEAST BRINGING ZONAL THEN EVENTUALLY
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO THE REGION.
DERGAN
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
ZAPOTOCNY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1213 PM CST SAT NOV 12 2011
.UPDATE...
&&
.SHORT TERM...
AN UPDATED WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR WESTERN AND PARTS OF NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA FOR THE STRONG PACIFIC COLD FRONT FORECAST TO
MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT. THE RUC...HRRR...NAM AND GFS ARE ALL
SUGGESTING WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING WITH GUSTS TO 50
MPH OR STRONGER. THE HRRR AND NAM SUGGEST 58 MPH GUSTS BUT DUE THE
NOCTURNAL NATURE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...A WIND ADVISORY IS IN
PLACE.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1135 AM CST SAT NOV 12 2011/
UPDATE...
SHORT TERM...
BASED ON OBS IN THE WRN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND THE RUC...A WIND
ADVISORY HAS BEEN HOISTED FOR A FEW COUNTIES IN THE WEST.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 755 AM CST SAT NOV 12 2011/
UPDATE...
UPDATED TO PLACE MORE WINDS IN THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT WITH THE
COLD FRONT...COLD AIR ADVECTION...AND THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
TO DRAW DOWN STRONGER GUSTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS
INDICATED IN 6Z MODEL DATA AND IN REVIEW OF MODEL SOUNDINGS.
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST ON TRACK AND UNCHANGED.
AVIATION...
VISUAL FLIGHT RULES EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 6Z SUNDAY ACROSS
WESTERN NEBRASKA. SCT-BKN CONDITIONS ABOVE 150 WILL MOVE IN FROM
THE WEST AND THICKEN AND LOWER THROUGH THE DAY. BY 6Z SUNDAY OVC100
ACROSS THE AREA WITH SCT-BKN035 EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
NEBRASKA AROUND 9Z. THE LOW CLOUD DECK WILL BRING THE CHANCE OF
SNOW OR RAIN CROSSING NORTHERN SECTIONS BETWEEN 6Z AND 12Z. LIGHT
WEST WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME 10-20 KNOTS TODAY AND REMAIN
10-20 OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH SUNDAY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 AM CST SAT NOV 12 2011/
SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD FLATTENING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS EAST FROM THE
GREAT BASIN THROUGH THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS STATES AS INDICATED
FROM HAND ANALYSIS OF THE 12.00Z 500MB LEVEL. ALSO OF NOTE...A
CLOSED LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN JUST WEST OF KSFO WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC/NEW ENGLAND STATES. A SECOND TROUGH
IS NOW APPARENT ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WITH HEIGHT FALLS OF
230M NOTED AT KUIL. AT THE SURFACE...LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IS
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH DEWPOINTS REMAINING LOW
IN THE MID TEENS. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN SLOW TO COOL UNDER A THIN
VEIL OF HIGH CLOUDS...WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING FROM THE MID 20S
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN SAND HILLS...TO THE LOW 40S AT KTIF AND
KANW.
DISCUSSION...
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS LEAD OFF THE DISCUSSION EARLY THIS
MORNING...THEN THE FOCUS SHIFTS TO A PASSING COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
REGIONAL SOUNDINGS REVEAL ABNORMALLY DRY AIR IS ONCE AGAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE LOW AND MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THIS DRY AIR WILL
SLOWLY MODIFY THIS AFTERNOON...AS INCREASING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE PACIFIC NW UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION.
BUFFER SOUNDING DO SHOW THE GRADUAL INCREASE OF MOISTURE FROM TOP
DOWN...BUT CERTAINLY LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DURING
PEAK HEATING. DEPENDING ON THE MODEL OF CHOICE...RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS /EURO/...TO THE UPPER 20S /NAM/
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WILL SIDE WITH THE HIGHER RH SOLUTIONS AS A
GOOD BIT OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. GIVEN THE LOWER
SUN ANGLE AND PRESENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL CLOUD DECK...FEEL IT WOULD
BE DIFFICULT TO REACH RED FLAG RH CRITERIA...BUT WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY AS WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON.
WIND GUSTS AOA 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA
THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
DRAGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. CAA AND HEIGHT RISES OF
2MB/HR WILL CERTAINLY CREATE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR THE GUSTY
WIND. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL ALSO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. AGAIN THE LOWER LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE ARE SUGGESTED TO BE QUITE DRY...SO PRECIPITATION THAT
FALLS WILL BE LIGHT AT BEST. MODELS DIFFER ON THE AMOUNT OF COOLING
THAT WILL TAKE PLACE...GFS REMAINS ON THE WARM SIDE...WITH H85 T/S
ABOVE 0C THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THE NAM ON THE OTHER HAND
LOWERS TEMPERATURES ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW.
WITH ABNORMALLY WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND THAT EXPECTED
TODAY...GROUND TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FAVOR ANY ACCUMULATION WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF GRASSY SURFACES IF SNOW WERE TO FALL. BUT GIVEN
DYNAMIC COOLING...DO EXPECT THE EVENTUAL CHANGE OVER TO
SNOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...WHICH WILL BE IN
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE CORE OF THE UPPER LOW. THE SYSTEM QUICKLY
PULLS EAST ON SUNDAY LEAVING BEHIND BREEZY CONDITIONS EARLY...WITH
SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY. EXPECTED HIGHS ON
SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE 40S AND 50S...WHICH WILL BE CLOSE TO CLIMO FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. ZONAL FLOW RETURNS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WITH SEVERAL WEAK WAVES INDICATED BY THE MODELS. A
FRONT WILL USHER IN COOLER TEMPERATURES AGAIN LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...BUT A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK
AS ZONAL TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ONCE AGAIN BECOMES ESTABLISHED.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 PM CST /7 PM MST/
THIS EVENING TO 5 AM CST /4 AM MST/ SUNDAY FOR
NEZ004-022>024-035-036-056>059-069-094.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NEZ004-022-023-
035-094.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/EXTENDED...CDC
AVIATION...TAYLOR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
519 AM CST SAT NOV 12 2011
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KLNK AND KOFK.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD.
DEE
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION.../257 AM CST SAT NOV 12 2011/
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT...AND TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES.
STRONG MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA THAT MOVED OUT OF THE GULF OF
ALASKA YESTERDAY WAS DIVING THROUGH WASHINGTON AND INTO IDAHO THIS
MORNING. RUC SUGGESTS TROP PRESSURES AROUND 600MB ACCOMPANIED THIS
SYSTEM...OWING TO INTENSITY OF SYSTEM. NAM SEEMED TO HAVE BEST
HANDLE ON INTENSITY...WITH ECMWF A LITTLE STRONGER AND GFS
SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKER. HOWEVER ALL MODELS WERE SIMILAR IN PROGRESSING
SYSTEM THROUGH THE ROCKIES TODAY AND ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA
OVERNIGHT.
WILL HAVE A SHORT PERIOD OF INTENSE LIFT AS THIS PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM
ROLLS THROUGH. MODELS SHOW STRONG ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE NEAR AND AFTER
MIDNIGHT ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...WITH THIS AREA SHIFTING EAST BY
12Z. MODEL MOISTURE PROFILES ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE...BUT ARE USUALLY
WAY UNDERDONE WITH STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW SYSTEMS. SO EXPECT
PRECIPITATION TO COMMENCE SOMETIME AROUND MIDNIGHT OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF EASTERN NEBRASKA THEN SPREADING INTO WEST CENTRAL IOWA
SHORTLY AFTER. RELATIVELY WARM LOW LEVELS INITIALLY WILL KEEP
PRECIPITATION LIQUID...BUT DYNAMIC COOLING NEAR CORE OF UPPER LOW
WILL LIKELY OVERCOME WARM SURFACE LAYER ALLOWING SNOW TO OCCUR OVER
OUR FAR NORTHERN CWA. AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH SNOWFALL GIVEN WARM
GROUND AND INITIAL LIQUID PRECIPITATION...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
TO SEE A HALF INCH OR SO IN SOME AREAS.
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL HELP WARM TEMPS
TOWARD 60 AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. MORE MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CUT
DOWN ON INSOLATION...SO NOT EXPECTING HIGHS QUITE AS MILD AS FRIDAY.
RELATIVELY MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE ALSO EXPECTED GIVEN CLOUD COVER
AND MIXING OF LOW LEVEL AIR.
AFTER PRECIP ENDS EARLY SUNDAY...A SWITCH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
BRING COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION. A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS EARLY IN
THE DAY LOOKS IN ORDER BEFORE UPPER SYSTEM LIFTS TOWARD THE GREAT
LAKES. OTHERWISE...850 TEMPS DROP TO NEAR 0C JUST NORTH OF THE
NEBRASKA BORDER...AND NEAR 5C IN THE SOUTH. DECENT MIXING SHOULD
STILL PUT HIGHS IN THE 50S MOST AREAS.
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL DIVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. AHEAD
OF IT...SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW AND SUNSHINE WILL PUT HIGHS AGAIN
IN THE 50S. BUT HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 50 TUESDAY IN COLD AIR
BEHIND FRONT. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK AS BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
COUNTRY GRADUALLY LIFTS NORTHEAST BRINGING ZONAL THEN EVENTUALLY
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO THE REGION.
DERGAN
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
257 AM CST SAT NOV 12 2011
.DISCUSSION...
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT...AND TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES.
STRONG MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA THAT MOVED OUT OF THE GULF OF
ALASKA YESTERDAY WAS DIVING THROUGH WASHINGTON AND INTO IDAHO THIS
MORNING. RUC SUGGESTS TROP PRESSURES AROUND 600MB ACCOMPANIED THIS
SYSTEM...OWING TO INTENSITY OF SYSTEM. NAM SEEMED TO HAVE BEST
HANDLE ON INTENSITY...WITH ECMWF A LITTLE STRONGER AND GFS
SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKER. HOWEVER ALL MODELS WERE SIMILAR IN PROGRESSING
SYSTEM THROUGH THE ROCKIES TODAY AND ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA
OVERNIGHT.
WILL HAVE A SHORT PERIOD OF INTENSE LIFT AS THIS PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM
ROLLS THROUGH. MODELS SHOW STRONG ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE NEAR AND AFTER
MIDNIGHT ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...WITH THIS AREA SHIFTING EAST BY
12Z. MODEL MOISTURE PROFILES ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE...BUT ARE USUALLY
WAY UNDERDONE WITH STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW SYSTEMS. SO EXPECT
PRECIPITATION TO COMMENCE SOMETIME AROUND MIDNIGHT OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF EASTERN NEBRASKA THEN SPREADING INTO WEST CENTRAL IOWA
SHORTLY AFTER. RELATIVELY WARM LOW LEVELS INITIALLY WILL KEEP
PRECIPITATION LIQUID...BUT DYNAMIC COOLING NEAR CORE OF UPPER LOW
WILL LIKELY OVERCOME WARM SURFACE LAYER ALLOWING SNOW TO OCCUR OVER
OUR FAR NORTHERN CWA. AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH SNOWFALL GIVEN WARM
GROUND AND INITIAL LIQUID PRECIPITATION...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
TO SEE A HALF INCH OR SO IN SOME AREAS.
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL HELP WARM TEMPS
TOWARD 60 AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. MORE MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CUT
DOWN ON INSOLATION...SO NOT EXPECTING HIGHS QUITE AS MILD AS FRIDAY.
RELATIVELY MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE ALSO EXPECTED GIVEN CLOUD COVER
AND MIXING OF LOW LEVEL AIR.
AFTER PRECIP ENDS EARLY SUNDAY...A SWITCH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
BRING COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION. A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS EARLY IN
THE DAY LOOKS IN ORDER BEFORE UPPER SYSTEM LIFTS TOWARD THE GREAT
LAKES. OTHERWISE...850 TEMPS DROP TO NEAR 0C JUST NORTH OF THE
NEBRASKA BORDER...AND NEAR 5C IN THE SOUTH. DECENT MIXING SHOULD
STILL PUT HIGHS IN THE 50S MOST AREAS.
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL DIVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. AHEAD
OF IT...SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW AND SUNSHINE WILL PUT HIGHS AGAIN
IN THE 50S. BUT HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 50 TUESDAY IN COLD AIR
BEHIND FRONT. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK AS BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
COUNTRY GRADUALLY LIFTS NORTHEAST BRINGING ZONAL THEN EVENTUALLY
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO THE REGION.
DERGAN
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KLNK AND KOFK.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR TAF PERIOD WITH SOUTHWESTERLY SFC
WINDS AND A SCT TO BKN DECK OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS.
KERN
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1042 PM EST SUN NOV 13 2011
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA FROM OFFSHORE THROUGH
TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM SUN...FCST REMAINS ON TRACK AND NO MAJOR CHANGES
NEEDED THROUGH THE REST OF TONIGHT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AS OF 3 PM SUN...RIDGING CONTINUES OFFSHORE
WITH A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE/VORTMAX CROSSING FROM WEST TO EAST
AROUND THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON.
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PERSISTED EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGH
CIRRUS SLOWLY PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST. SOME SCATTERED
STRATOCUMULUS DEVELOPMENT BEGAN AROUND 18Z AT 4-5K FT ACROSS
INLAND LOCATIONS. SKIES SHOULD DIMINISH TO CLOUDY TONIGHT AS A FEW
WEAK SHORTWAVES CROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST. SOUTHWESTERLY
SURFACE WINDS/FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD MOISTURE NORTH INTO
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WITH SPEEDS AROUND 3-6 KNOTS OVERNIGHT.
SOME INLAND SPOTS COULD DECOUPLE PRIOR TO SUNRISE...THUS CANNOT
RULE OUT BRIEF/SHALLOW FOG. CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT PATCHY FOG WILL
FORM SO HAVE LEFT OUT OF GRIDS FOR NOW. GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND
INCREASING DEWPOINTS...EXPECT TEMPS IN THE LOW 50S INLAND TO MID
50S ALONG THE COAST AND NEAR 60 ALONG THE OBX.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SUN...MONDAY WILL BE MUCH LIKE SUNDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OFFSHORE EXTENDING WEST ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.
SKY FORECAST WILL AGAIN BE TRICKY AS SKY COVER WILL BE DEPENDENT
ON SHORTWAVE/VORTMAX ACTIVITY GIVEN THE FAIRLY DRY ATMOS OVERALL.
LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SO TEMPS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY WARMER MON THAN SUN...HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S
EVERYWHERE. IF CLOUD COVER BECOMES GREATER THAN CURRENT FORECAST
THEN TEMPS COULD BE A FEW DEGREES TOO HIGH...BUT OVERALL WENT WITH
A BLEND OF MOS GUIDANCE AND BIAS CORRECTED MAX TEMPS. NO POPS/WX
TO BE CONCERNED WITH THROUGH MON.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SUN...NOT TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AS HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. EXPECT MILD CONDITIONS AS A WARM SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW
CONTINUES. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE IN THE MID/UPPER 70S TUES AND
MID 70S WED. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA ON WED NIGHT
TO THURS. CONTINUED WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE ON WED AND
INCREASING POPS FOR WED NIGHT TO THURS AS CURRENT MODELS STILL
HAVE QPF. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND
CAN EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TO INCREASE EACH DAY AS THICKNESS INCREASE.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
AS OF 7 PM SUN...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.
HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS DECK WILL SCATTER OVERNIGHT PER MODEL SOUNDINGS
AND UPSTREAM OBS. THIS WILL LEAD TO GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND A
POTENTIAL FOR BR DEVELOPING AT KISO AND KPGV AFTER AROUND 08Z AND
LASTING THROUGH SUNRISE. BACKED OFF ON LOW STRATUS POTENTIAL LATE
TONIGHT AS ATMS IS VERY DRY. RUC COND PRES DEFICITS INDICATE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN MAINLY OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
LONG TERM /12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SUN...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL EARLY WED AS OVER THE
AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST 10-15 KT BY DAY AND 5
-10 KTS OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECASTED
AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA WED NIGHT INTO
THURS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THURSDAY WITH
BREEZY CONDITIONS FROM THE NORTHWEST WINDS 15-20 KNOTS.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SUN...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS AND SEAS GENERALLY 1-3 FT AROUND 10
SECONDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OFFSHORE TODAY WITH A SERIES
OF WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS CROSSING THE WATERS FROM WEST TO EAST.
SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH SOME GUSTS
NEAR 20 KNOTS FOR POINTS NORTH OF DIAMOND SHOALS...THEN INCREASE
15 TO 20 MON WITH SOME GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS MON. SOUTHERN WATERS
WILL STAY MOSTLY 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS MON.
TRENDED SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH INCREASED SEAS SINCE INCREASED WINDS
HAVE TAKEN LONGER TO DEVELOP. SEAS WILL INCREASE TO 2 TO 4 FT
LATER THIS AFTERNOON THEN 3 TO 5 FT OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SUN...MODELS CONTINUE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A RESULT NOT TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE MARINE. HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE...MAINTAINING A 10-20 KT FLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND
SEAS 3-5 FT. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE
TUE NIGHT WITH THE ON SET OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. ON THE SOUNDS EXPECT
SMALL CRAFT MAINLY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY
THE FRONT FOR WED INTO THURS.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...TL/DAG
SHORT TERM...DAG
LONG TERM...BM
AVIATION...TL/BM
MARINE...DAG/BM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
700 PM EST SUN NOV 13 2011
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA FROM OFFSHORE THROUGH
TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 7 PM SUN...FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE OVERNIGHT. ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENT TO MIN T GRIDS TO LOWER THEM OVER MAINLY THE INLAND
AREAS A DEGREE OR TWO. CURRENT TD VALS IN THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50
WOULD YIELD MIN TEMPS NEAR 50 FOR INLAND LOCALES. FCST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE UPR LEVEL CIRRO STRATUS WILL SCATTER OUT OVERNIGHT...
ALLOWING FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. SFC TD`S ARE ALSO A BIT
HIGHER THAN LAST NIGHT AND THERE COULD BE SEVERAL HOURS OF LIGHT
FOG DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH SUNRISE MONDAY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AS OF 3 PM SUN...RIDGING CONTINUES OFFSHORE
WITH A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE/VORTMAX CROSSING FROM WEST TO EAST
AROUND THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON.
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PERSISTED EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGH
CIRRUS SLOWLY PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST. SOME SCATTERED
STRATOCUMULUS DEVELOPMENT BEGAN AROUND 18Z AT 4-5K FT ACROSS
INLAND LOCATIONS. SKIES SHOULD DIMINISH TO CLOUDY TONIGHT AS A FEW
WEAK SHORTWAVES CROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST. SOUTHWESTERLY
SURFACE WINDS/FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD MOISTURE NORTH INTO
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WITH SPEEDS AROUND 3-6 KNOTS OVERNIGHT.
SOME INLAND SPOTS COULD DECOUPLE PRIOR TO SUNRISE...THUS CANNOT
RULE OUT BRIEF/SHALLOW FOG. CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT PATCHY FOG WILL
FORM SO HAVE LEFT OUT OF GRIDS FOR NOW. GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND
INCREASING DEWPOINTS...EXPECT TEMPS IN THE LOW 50S INLAND TO MID
50S ALONG THE COAST AND NEAR 60 ALONG THE OBX.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SUN...MONDAY WILL BE MUCH LIKE SUNDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OFFSHORE EXTENDING WEST ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.
SKY FORECAST WILL AGAIN BE TRICKY AS SKY COVER WILL BE DEPENDENT
ON SHORTWAVE/VORTMAX ACTIVITY GIVEN THE FAIRLY DRY ATMOS OVERALL.
LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SO TEMPS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY WARMER MON THAN SUN...HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S
EVERYWHERE. IF CLOUD COVER BECOMES GREATER THAN CURRENT FORECAST
THEN TEMPS COULD BE A FEW DEGREES TOO HIGH...BUT OVERALL WENT WITH
A BLEND OF MOS GUIDANCE AND BIAS CORRECTED MAX TEMPS. NO POPS/WX
TO BE CONCERNED WITH THROUGH MON.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SUN...NOT TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AS HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. EXPECT MILD CONDITIONS AS A WARM SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW
CONTINUES. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE IN THE MID/UPPER 70S TUES AND
MID 70S WED. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA ON WED NIGHT
TO THURS. CONTINUED WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE ON WED AND
INCREASING POPS FOR WED NIGHT TO THURS AS CURRENT MODELS STILL
HAVE QPF. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND
CAN EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TO INCREASE EACH DAY AS THICKNESS INCREASE.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
AS OF 7 PM SUN...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.
HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS DECK WILL SCATTER OVERNIGHT PER MODEL SOUNDINGS
AND UPSTREAM OBS. THIS WILL LEAD TO GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND A
POTENTIAL FOR BR DEVELOPING AT KISO AND KPGV AFTER AROUND 08Z AND
LASTING THROUGH SUNRISE. BACKED OFF ON LOW STRATUS POTENTIAL LATE
TONIGHT AS ATMS IS VERY DRY. RUC COND PRES DEFICITS INDICATE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN MAINLY OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
LONG TERM /12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SUN...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL EARLY WED AS OVER THE
AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST 10-15 KT BY DAY AND 5
-10 KTS OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECASTED
AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA WED NIGHT INTO
THURS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THURSDAY WITH
BREEZY CONDITIONS FROM THE NORTHWEST WINDS 15-20 KNOTS.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SUN...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS AND SEAS GENERALLY 1-3 FT AROUND 10
SECONDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OFFSHORE TODAY WITH A SERIES
OF WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS CROSSING THE WATERS FROM WEST TO EAST.
SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH SOME GUSTS
NEAR 20 KNOTS FOR POINTS NORTH OF DIAMOND SHOALS...THEN INCREASE
15 TO 20 MON WITH SOME GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS MON. SOUTHERN WATERS
WILL STAY MOSTLY 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS MON.
TRENDED SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH INCREASED SEAS SINCE INCREASED WINDS
HAVE TAKEN LONGER TO DEVELOP. SEAS WILL INCREASE TO 2 TO 4 FT
LATER THIS AFTERNOON THEN 3 TO 5 FT OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SUN...MODELS CONTINUE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A RESULT NOT TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE MARINE. HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE...MAINTAINING A 10-20 KT FLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND
SEAS 3-5 FT. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE
TUE NIGHT WITH THE ON SET OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. ON THE SOUNDS EXPECT
SMALL CRAFT MAINLY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY
THE FRONT FOR WED INTO THURS.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...TL/DAG
SHORT TERM...DAG
LONG TERM...BM
AVIATION...TL/BM
MARINE...DAG/BM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS LUBBOCK TX
851 AM CST SAT NOV 12 2011
.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO REMOVE MENTION OF BLOWING DUST ON THE CAPROCK
THIS AFTERNOON. 12Z NAM AND RUC DATA CONTINUE TO PAINT REDUCED
GRADIENT FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTH PLAINS WITH AFTERNOON GUST
POTENTIAL STRUGGLING TO REACH 30 MPH. 06Z BIAS-CORRECTED MAV
GUIDANCE DID NOT EXECUTE PROPERLY...THOUGH INFERENCE SUGGESTS
SUSTAINED WINDS ONLY AROUND 20 MPH FOR MOST AREAS WELL SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 70. NORTH OF THIS LINE WE ARE ALREADY SEEING STRONGER
GRADIENT WINDS AND DEEPER MIXING/HIGHER GUSTS...SO THE FORECAST
FOR THESE AREAS REMAINS ON TRACK. NO OTHER UPDATES AT THIS TIME.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 524 AM CST SAT NOV 12 2011/
AVIATION...
WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY BEGINNING LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AT BOTH TAF SITES IN RESPONSE TO A STRENGTHENING SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
THICK AS WELL. KLBB MAY SEE MINOR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS DUE TO
BLDU BUT HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY MENTION IN THE TAF AT THE MOMENT.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY TONIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 AM CST SAT NOV 12 2011/
SHORT TERM...
EPIC ALASKA STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION
TODAY BRINGING WINDY CONDITIONS FOR WEST TEXAS. HOWEVER...NOT AS
WINDY AS SEEN IN WESTERN ALASKA. THE HEIGHT GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP
IN RESPONSE TO THIS SYSTEM. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BISECT THE AREA
WITH THE CENTER OF A SURFACE LOW IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WIDESPREAD
SUBSIDENCE WILL ENCOMPASS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH MIXING
HEIGHTS WILL NOT BE TOO IMPRESSIVE. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THE
ATMOSPHERE MIXING TO AROUND 800 TO 750 MB. THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
STILL ACROSS THE REGION WILL LIKELY KEEP THIS MIXING LIMITED. CLOUDS
WILL BEGIN TO THIN OUT LATE THIS MORNING. MID LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT
TOO IMPRESSIVE EITHER WITH A 700MB WIND MAX EXTENDING FROM NORTHEAST
NEW MEXICO INTO THE WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. THESE DOWNSLOPING WIND
WILL SEND TEMPERATURES SOARING INTO THE 70S FOR MOST AREAS WITH
LOWER 80S IN THE SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. MODELS HAVE BEEN OVER
FORECASTING THE SURFACE DEW POINTS THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS AND WILL
CONTINUE TO UNDERCUT THE DEW POINT GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF THIS. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN STRONG OVERNIGHT WITH A WESTERLY LOW
LEVEL JET OF 30 TO 40KT KEEPING WINDS AND TEMPERATURES UP TONIGHT.
JDV
LONG TERM...
MODEST HEIGHT AND PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL REMAIN SUNDAY FOLLOWING
PASSAGE OF WEAKENING UPPER LOW TO OUR NORTHEAST. THIS SHOULD RESULT
IN A BREEZY DAY SUNDAY WITH HIGH CLOUDS LIMITING CONFIDENCE OF
MIXING DEPTH WHICH THUS IMPACTS BOTH HIGH TEMPERATURES AND WIND
SPEEDS. UPPER LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM NORTHWEST MEXICO NOW
SHOWING MUCH CLOSER MODEL SPREAD WITH MAJORITY OF FEATURES THOUGH
THE PREVIOUSLY LAGGING GFS NOW HAS BECOME THE PACE SETTER...AND SO
WE REMAIN LESS INCLINED TOWARDS ITS SOLUTION. PREFER INSTEAD A
BLEND BETWEEN MORE CONSISTENT WRF/NAM AND ECMWF WITH A SOMEWHAT
SLOWER APPROACH AND OPENING OF THE LOW...RETAINING LOW/LIMITED
SHOWER CHANCES MONDAY FAVORING STILL SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS. WEAK
FRONT WILL FOLLOW TUESDAY THOUGH ECMWF OFFERS MORE SUBSTANTIAL
SURFACE RIDGING CENTERED ON MID-WEEK WITH AT LEAST A BLENDED
SOLUTION JUSTIFIED. WE LOWERED TEMPERATURES A CATEGORY OR SO FOR
MID WEEK. IN EITHER CASE...A DRY OUTLOOK WITH MODEST LATE PERIOD
WARMING APPEARS IN THE OFFING AS BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC FLOW OVER MID-CONTINENT EVOLVES TOWARDS SIMILAR LOW
AMPLITUDE ANTICYCLONIC CURVATURE LATER IN THE WEEK. RMCQUEEN
FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON. LATEST RFTI-MOD VALUES INDICATE LOW TO HIGH CRITICAL
VALUES MOSTLY FOR AREAS ON THE CAPROCK. STRONG WESTERLY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO A STRENGTHENING SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE HIGHEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO CAUSE
TEMPERATURES TO BE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE WARM
TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH THE VERY DRY SURFACE AIR WILL CAUSE
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO DROP BELOW CRITICAL VALUES.
ENOUGH MID AND LOW LEVEL HEIGHT AND PRESSURE GRADIENTS SHOULD
REMAIN SUNDAY FOR A BREEZY DAY FAVORING NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES WITH
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER THREAT. HOWEVER MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO MIX TO LOWER LEVELS AND MAY HOLD DEWPOINTS UP ENOUGH
TO LIMIT ABILITY OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS TO DROP. RMCQUEEN
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 71 42 69 42 64 / 0 0 0 10 10
TULIA 73 43 71 45 65 / 0 0 0 10 20
PLAINVIEW 74 44 72 46 65 / 0 0 0 10 20
LEVELLAND 74 45 72 47 66 / 0 0 0 10 20
LUBBOCK 75 46 73 48 66 / 0 0 0 10 20
DENVER CITY 73 46 72 47 67 / 0 0 10 10 20
BROWNFIELD 75 46 73 48 67 / 0 0 0 10 20
CHILDRESS 80 49 77 50 68 / 0 0 0 10 20
SPUR 79 47 77 50 70 / 0 0 0 10 20
ASPERMONT 79 50 78 52 72 / 0 0 0 10 30
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ021>025-027>031-033>036.
&&
$$
93/20
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
308 PM CST SAT NOV 12 2011
.VERY SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT INTO THE AREA THIS
EVENING...WITHIN WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME. SOUTH WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN UP TONIGHT WITH TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINING. INCREASING
MOISTURE WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOWEST LEVELS WILL SATURATE
AIR COLUMN UNDER INVERSION...AND SHOULD LEAD TO LOW STRATUS CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT. NAM/GFS/RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALL SHOW
THIS DEVELOPMENT...WITH THE RUC TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH ITS ONSET. THIS
SHOULD KEEP LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S.
LOW STRATUS CLOUDS SHOULD LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING SUNDAY...AS
MOIST AIR REMAINS TRAPPED UNDER INVERSION. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT
SOME OF THE GUSTINESS WITH THE WINDS DURING THE MORNING...UNTIL THE
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACTUALLY WEAKENS WITH APPROACH AND PASSING OF THE
FRONT DURING THIS TIME...WHICH SHOULD ALSO LIMIT SOME OF THE MIXING
AND GUSTS. SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALSO SHIFTS THROUGH THE REGION DURING
THIS TIME. THIS AND THE FRONT SHOULD ALLOW FOR CHANCES OF
SHOWERS...THOUGH AIR COLUMN HAS A HARD TIME SATURATING THROUGH A
DEEP LAYER. SHOWER CHANCES LINGER IN THE NORTHEAST INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON.
BEST SHOT AT STRONG WINDS APPEARS TO BE AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE THE STRONGEST. DRY SLOT
STAYS JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AS WELL DURING THE AFTERNOON.
FOR NOW...WILL HOLD OFF ON A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE FAR SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES. A LOT WILL DEPEND ON HOW EXTENSIVE THE LOW STRATUS
BECOMES. HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.
.SHORT TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
FOCUS OF THIS PERIOD ON LIGHT PRECIP THREAT ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
PASSING SHORT WAVE TROUGH ON SUNDAY WILL NUDGE BAROCLINIC ZONE
SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL MS VALLEY REGION WHICH WILL EXTEND NORTHEAST
INTO ERN GTLAKES. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON CARRYING
SHORT WAVE ALONG THERMAL RIBBON ENE ON MONDAY. BOTH GFS AND NAM
KEEP QPF SOUTH OF WI OVER IL/IN INTO SRN LWR MI ON MONDAY...HOWEVER
OTHER GUIDANCE INCLUDING ECMWF...UKMT AND GEM-NHEM DOES BRING LIGHT
QPF INTO SRN WI. FURTHER DIAGNOSIS OF NAM AND GFS REVEALS BURST OF
10 TO 20 UNIT LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE MOVING RAPIDLY EWD ACROSS
SRN WI WITH LAYER RH EXTENDING FROM 1K FEET THROUGH 10K. 295 THETA
SFC MONDAY MORNING SHOWS RAPID MOISTENING WITH CONDENSATION PRESSURE
DEFICITS LOWERING TO LESS THAN 10MB WITH 3-5MICROBARS ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE. OMEGA QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST IN THE AFTN. WL CONTINUE LOW
POPS FOR NOW...WITH BEST CHANCE IN THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF WI.
LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST THRU SRN CAN WL DRAG MID LEVEL TROF AND SFC
FRONT THROUGH SRN WI ON TUE. MOISTURE AND SATURATION LIMITED AND
CONFINED MOSTLY TO NRN HALF OF WI. FOR NOW WL CONTINUE SCHC POPS ON
TUE...WITH COLDER AIR SURGING IN DURING THE DAY BEHIND SFC FRONT. WL
HAVE NARROW STRIP OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS ALONG NRN BORDER.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH THIS PERIOD...FOR THE MOMENT.
DESPITE LIMITED FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH TUESDAY SHORT WAVE...PUSH OF
COLDER AIR WILL SETTLE OVER SOUTHERN WI TUE NIGHT AND WED. 85H
TEMPS EXPCD TO DROP AROUND 15C IN THE 24 HOUR PERIOD FROM MID-DAY
TUE TO WED...TO AROUND -10C. HENCE DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 30S
FOR MOST OF WED.
AMPLIFYING LONG WAVE TROFFING STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP UPSTREAM
OVER NORTHWEST CONUS AND SW CANADA LATER NEXT WEEK. INITIAL PIECE OF
ENERGY EJECTED FROM THE LONG WAVE TROUGH EXPCD TO PUSH INTO THE NRN
PLAINS AND SRN CANADA ON THU AND FRI. THIS WILL RESULT IN SHIFTING
LOW LEVEL WINDS TO THE SOUTHWEST WHICH WILL USHER WARMER AIR BACK
INTO SRN WI ON THU AND FRI. STRONGER SHORT WAVE EJECTED EASTWARD
ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS ON SATURDAY WILL FURTHER INCREASE
THE SOUTH WINDS WHICH SHOULD PULL DEEPER MOISTURE GRADUALLY
NORTHWARD. BY SAT...SRN WI WL LIE WITHIN THERMAL RIBBON AND HAVE A
BETTER CHANCE FOR ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND SATURATION LEADING TO
INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES. GFS 5 DAY 500H MEANS INDICATING LARGE
DIPOLAR PATTERN SETTING UP OVER CONUS BY 00Z/20. LARGE POSITIVE
HEIGHT ANOMOLY OVER 150 METERS OVER ERN CONUS OFFSET BY NEGATIVE
ANOMOLY OVER 200 METERS UPSTREAM OVER WRN CONUS. THIS REINFORCES
FACT FOR MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS/...GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AT TAF SITES...WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS.
THE GUSTS WILL SUBSIDE BY SUNSET...BUT SUSTAINED SOUTH WINDS WILL
REMAIN AROUND 10 TO 13 KNOTS THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL JET CLIPPING THE AREA. 2000 FOOT
LEVEL SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 45 TO 50 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE AND MILDER AIRMASS...AROUND 09Z SATURDAY. THESE CLOUDS
SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA...MADISON
BY 19Z SUNDAY AND EASTERN SITES BY 20Z TO 21Z SUNDAY. MVFR
VISIBILITIES ALSO POSSIBLE...BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS SO LEFT OUT OF TAFS.
WINDS MAY WEAKEN FOR A TIME WITH APPROACH AND PASSING OF FRONT
SUNDAY. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH FRONT AND PASSING
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. FOR NOW...WILL JUST MENTION VICINITY
SHOWERS IN TAFS DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD INCREASE QUICKLY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT BY
MID AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS IN THE 30 TO 35 KNOT RANGE. EASTERN TAF
SITES HAVE BEST SHOT AT HIGHER END GUSTS. VFR CEILINGS ALSO EXPECTED
TO RETURN BEHIND THE FRONT.
&&
.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 15Z SUNDAY. PRESSURE
GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
NEARSHORE WATERS. SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED.
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET PASSING JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY
SHOULD BRING FREQUENT 35 TO 40 KNOT SOUTH/SOUTHWEST GALES TO THE
NEARSHORE WATERS. LOW CLOUDS AND BAGGY PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY LIMIT
GUSTS FROM TIME TO TIME DURING THE LATE MORNING. SOUTHWEST GALES
EXPECTED AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THUS...WILL GO WITH A GALE WARNING FROM 15Z SUNDAY TO 00Z
MONDAY...REPLACING THE GALE WATCH. THESE WINDS WILL GENERATE HIGH
WAVES UP TO 6 TO 10 FEET BY SUNDAY...HIGHEST TOWARD THE OPEN WATERS.
BRISK WINDS AND HIGH WAVES SHOULD SLOWLY SUBSIDE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...AS PRESSURE GRADIENT SLOWLY WEAKENS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WILL EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...PERHAPS INTO MONDAY.
BRISK WINDS AND HIGH WAVES ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
HIGHEST WAVES WOULD BE TOWARD THE OPEN WATERS.
&&
CONFIDENCE...
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...MEDIUM.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MEDIUM.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MEDIUM.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...LOW TO MEDIUM.
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 15Z/13 FOR LMZ643>646.
GALE WARNING 15Z/13 TO 00Z/14 FOR LMZ643>646.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/LONG TERM...MBK
VERY SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE...WOOD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
200 AM CST SAT NOV 12 2011
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
200 AM CST SAT NOV 12 2011
FORECAST CONCERNS FOCUS ON THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO IMPACT THE
AREA...PCPN CHANCES AND WINDS.
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH INDICATED VIA THE LATEST WATERVAPOR
IMAGERY...CHURNING ACROSS THE PAC NW. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE QUICKLY
EASTWARD...ACROSS THE PLAINS TONIGHT...MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA BETWEEN 12-18Z SUN...THEN EXITING INTO CANADA BY SUN NIGHT. AT
THE SFC THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SLIP JUST AHEAD OF THE UPPER
LEVEL WAVE...WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL /925-850 MB/ WARM AIR ADVECTION
AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE /285-300 K/ OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THESE
THERMODYNAMICS WOULD IMPACT THE REGION FROM 06-12Z SUN. DECENT
SLOPING FRONTOGENETIC RESPONSE AROUND THE FRONT AND BEHIND IT SUN
MORNING. SATURATION REMAINS A LIMITING FACTOR TO THIS SYSTEM/S PCPN
CHANCES THOUGH.
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND WEST-EAST RUNNING X-SECTIONS POINT TO ONLY A
VERY LOW SATURATION...SFC TO MAYBE 1500 FT...OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THE
DEEPER SATURATION IS MORE ALONG AND JUST POST THE
FRONT...HIGHLIGHTED LOCALLY IN THE 12-18Z TIME FRAME. IF THE
SATURATION WAS JUST A BIT DEEPER...THE THERMODYNAMICS THROUGH THE
MOISTURE WOULD LIKELY LEAD TO AREAS OF DRIZZLE. STILL FEEL ITS
PROBABLY TOO SHALLOW THOUGH...SO WILL KEEP IT DRY WITH RESPECT TO
DRIZZLE TONIGHT.
THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH STEAMING THE SHORTWAVE THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING...AND WITH THE DEEPER SATURATION AND FRONTOGENETIC
LIFT...THIS WOULD BE THE TIME PERIOD FOR THE BEST RAIN CHANCES.
AMOUNTS DON/T LOOK ALL THAT MUCH...1/10 TO MAYBE 2/10 OF AN INCH.
BEST CHANCES CONTINUE TO LIE ACROSS THE NORTHERN 2/3 OF THE
FORECAST AREA.
ATTENTION NOW TURNS TO WINDS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WINDS DON/T BECOME
UNIDIRECTIONAL IN THE VERTICAL UNTIL LATE SUN MORNING...WHICH WOULD
PROMOTE BETTER MIXING AND GREATER GUSTS. HOWEVER...WE WILL LIKELY BE
UNDER A GOOD AMOUNT OF CLOUDS STILL...WHICH WILL HELP INHIBIT SOME
OF THAT POTENTIAL MIXING. SUNDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE A FAIRLY
WINDY/BREEZY DAY...MORE SO THAN TODAY...ALTHOUGH GUSTS MAYBE A BIT
SUBDUED COMPARED TO WHAT THEY COULD BE ON ACCOUNT OF CLOUDS. DON/T
FEEL WINDS WILL APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA AT THIS TIME.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
200 AM CST SAT NOV 12 2011
DECENT AGREEMENT WITH A TUE SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO SWING ACROSS THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY VIA THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS. NOT
MUCH/IF ANY MOISTURE FEED AS THIS IS ABSORBED BY A FRONT/SERIES OF
UPPER AIR DISTURBANCES TO THE SOUTH. MODELS STILL DEPICT SOME LIGHT
QPF WITH THE TUES FEATURE...WITH BETTER CHANCES TO THE NORTH WHERE
THE SATURATION APPEARS DEEPER. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS
IN...BUT QUICKLY EXITS ON THU AS THE FLOW A LOFT IS FAIRLY
PROGRESSIVE. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH THEN LOOKS TO SPIN EASTWARD
TOWARD THE REGION. SFC WARM FRONT/LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WOULD
LIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FEATURE...BRINGING THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME PCPN. MODELS DIFFER HERE WITH A MUCH QUICKER
SOLUTION VIA THE EC. MODELS HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME WITH THIS
WEATHER SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY THE EC WHICH HAS SHOWN A VARIETY OF
SOLUTIONS OVER ITS PAST FEW RUNS. THE GFS HAS STAYED ON THE SLOWER
SIDE...ALTHOUGH IT TOO HAS SOME CONTINUITY ISSUES. WILL HOLD WITH
THE CONSENSUS SOLUTION FOR THE FORECAST DETAILS FOR THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK AS A RESULT.
&&
.AVIATION...THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY
1105 PM CST FRI NOV 11 2011
THE MAIN NEAR TERM QUESTION IS WITH WHETHER ANY VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS WILL OCCUR DUE TO A COMBINATION OF CLEAR SKIES...A
SHARP LOW LEVEL INVERSION AND LEFT OVER MOISTURE FROM MELTING
SNOW. VISIBILITY HAS YET TO DROP AT ANY SITES ACROSS THE
REGION...LIKELY DUE TO THE WINDS THAT HAVE BEEN UP BETWEEN
6-10KTS. THE LATEST FEW RUNS OF THE RUC HAVE BEEN SHOWING THAT
ANY RESTRICTIONS APPEAR LESS LIKELY AT RST AND LSE...PARTICULARLY
AT RST WHERE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS REMAIN AT 2C THROUGH THE
MORNING. GIVEN THAT THE WINDS STAY UP...IT APPEARS THAT ANY DROPS
IN VISIBILITY AT LSE WOULD REMAIN ABOVE 6SM...SO WILL NOT BE
INCLUDING ANY MVFR DROPS AT THIS TIME.
HOW STRONG THE WINDS WILL GUST ON SATURDAY WILL BE THE NEXT
QUESTION WITH THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT STILL IN PLACE. GUSTS IN
THE 18 TO 24KT RANGE STILL LOOK REASONABLE FOR LATE IN THE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON OUT OF THE SOUTH AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
200 AM CST SAT NOV 12 2011
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM... RIECK
LONG TERM.... RIECK
AVIATION..... HALBACH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1105 PM CST FRI NOV 11 2011
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
219 PM CST FRI NOV 11 2011
AT 3 PM...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS MOVING EAST THROUGH WESTERN
ONTARIO. TO THE SOUTH OF THIS SYSTEM...A WARM FRONT WAS STARTING
TO WORK ITS WAY EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WARMING IS BEING
AIDED BY DOWN SLOPE OFF OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. IN
ADDITION...THE AIR MASS IS MORE OF PACIFIC ORIGIN THAN CONTINENTAL
POLAR.
FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...THE MOS AND MANY OF THE
OTHER MODELS DEW POINTS WERE JUST TOO MOIST. THE ONLY DATA SET
THAT SEEMED REALISTIC WAS THE ADJUSTED MAV...SO THIS WAS USED TO
POPULATE THE GRIDDED DATA BASE.
FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...THE 11.12Z MODELS ARE
IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM /CURRENTLY
MOVING INTO WASHINGTON STATE/ WILL BE MOVING EAST THROUGH THE
REGION. THIS SYSTEM IS ACTUALLY REMNANTS OF THE VERY STRONG STORM
THAT MOVED THROUGH THE GULF OF ALASKA ON THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM...THERE WILL SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION. HOWEVER THE MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT MUCH OF THIS WARMING WILL ACTUALLY HELP
STEEPEN THE INVERSION ALOFT. CONS RAW HOURLY TEMPERATURE DATA
SUGGEST THAT THE TEMPERATURES WILL EITHER STABILIZE OR MAYBE RISE
A COUPLE OF DEGREES AROUND SUNRISE SUNDAY...AND THEN FALL THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING AS STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION MOVES
INTO THE REGION. THIS SEEMED REALISTIC...SO IT WAS USED TO
POPULATE THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.
WHILE THERE IS NOT TREMENDOUS MOISTURE /HOWEVER IT DOES NOT TAKE
MUCH TO GENERATE PRECIPITATION THIS TIME OF YEAR/ AHEAD OF THIS
WAVE...THERE LOOKS TO MORE THAN SUFFICIENT SYNOPTIC AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT TO GENERATE SOME SHOWERS. SINCE THE BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE
WILL BE ALONG THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES ALOFT SHOULD REMAIN WARM
ENOUGH FOR THE PRECIPITATION TO REMAIN IN THE FORM OF RAIN. SINCE
THIS WAS A VERY CONSISTENT SIGNAL IN THE MODELS...PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WERE RAISED A BIT MORE.
FROM LATE SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...THE MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW THAT THE 1000-800 MB LAPSE RATES WILL BE GREATER 8C/KM. IN
ADDITION...THERE WILL BE STRONG SUBSIDENCE BELOW 10K FEET. THIS
WILL RESULT IN THE STRONGER WINDS FROM ALOFT MIXING DOWN TO THE
SURFACE. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE AND
WIND GUSTS WILL BE AROUND 40 MPH. THIS PERIOD WILL HAVE TO WATCHED
FOR A POTENTIAL WIND ADVISORY.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
219 PM CST FRI NOV 11 2011
WHILE THE 11.12Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WILL BE MOVING EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THERE ARE STILL TIMING AND LOCATION
DIFFERENCES. THIS CREATES ISSUES AS FAR AS WHAT TIME PERIOD TO
PLACE THE PRECIPITATION IN AND ALSO ITS TYPE. DUE TO THIS...JUST
BROAD BRUSHED A SMALL /15 TO 24 PERCENT/ CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE AREA FOR TUESDAY. ALSO SEEING MIXED SIGNALS FOR
PRECIPITATION TYPES...SO JUST WENT WITH RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN
THE MORNING...AND RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON.
FROM WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THERE LOOKS LIKE THAT
ANOTHER WEAK WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ALONG THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE. THE GFS PRODUCES A BAND OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS
NORTHERN IOWA...SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS.
MEANWHILE THE GEM PRODUCES A BAND OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN
MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN. THIS HAS BEEN SUCH AN
INCONSISTENT SIGNAL THAT THE FORECAST WAS LEFT DRY.
ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...THE ECMWF GENERATES PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EAST THROUGH
THE REGION. THIS IS A BIT FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS RUN. SINCE
THERE WERE TIMING DIFFERENCES AND THE GFS WAS DRY FOR THIS TIME
PERIOD...NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE DRY FORECAST FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.
ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF MOVE A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM EAST THROUGH THE REGION. IT IS ACTUALLY THE SAME
SYSTEM THAT THE ECMWF MOVES THROUGH THE REGION A DAY EARLIER...BUT
THE SYSTEM STILL LINGERS ACROSS THE AREA SO IT STILL GENERATES
SOME SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE EAST AND SOUTH DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD. MEANWHILE WITH THE GFS IS APPROXIMATELY 36 HOURS
SLOWER AND THE COLD FRONT DOES NOT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA UNTIL
FRIDAY NIGHT. WHILE THERE CONTINUES TO BEING TIMING ISSUES WITH
THIS SYSTEM...THERE WAS ENOUGH OF A CONSISTENT SIGNAL FOR A SMALL
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO BE ADDED TO THE FORECAST GRID.
&&
.AVIATION...THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY
1105 PM CST FRI NOV 11 2011
THE MAIN NEAR TERM QUESTION IS WITH WHETHER ANY VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS WILL OCCUR DUE TO A COMBINATION OF CLEAR SKIES...A
SHARP LOW LEVEL INVERSION AND LEFT OVER MOISTURE FROM MELTING
SNOW. VISIBILITY HAS YET TO DROP AT ANY SITES ACROSS THE
REGION...LIKELY DUE TO THE WINDS THAT HAVE BEEN UP BETWEEN
6-10KTS. THE LATEST FEW RUNS OF THE RUC HAVE BEEN SHOWING THAT
ANY RESTRICTIONS APPEAR LESS LIKELY AT RST AND LSE...PARTICULARLY
AT RST WHERE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS REMAIN AT 2C THROUGH THE
MORNING. GIVEN THAT THE WINDS STAY UP...IT APPEARS THAT ANY DROPS
IN VISIBILITY AT LSE WOULD REMAIN ABOVE 6SM...SO WILL NOT BE
INCLUDING ANY MVFR DROPS AT THIS TIME.
HOW STRONG THE WINDS WILL GUST ON SATURDAY WILL BE THE NEXT
QUESTION WITH THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT STILL IN PLACE. GUSTS IN
THE 18 TO 24KT RANGE STILL LOOK REASONABLE FOR LATE IN THE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON OUT OF THE SOUTH AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
219 PM CST FRI NOV 11 2011
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...HALBACH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
159 AM EST MON NOV 14 2011
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE EASTWARD INTO MONDAY. A COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST WILL
APPROACH THE REGION TUESDAY BRINGING AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL BY MID- WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER AND COOLER AIR
FOR THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
MAINLY HIGH AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
LIGHT WINDS...VARIABLE CLOUDINESS AND SOME INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL HELP TO KEEP MODERATING OVERNIGHT LOWS. EXPECT
READINGS IN THE UPPER 40S BY MORNING...WITH SOME PATCHY FOG BEING
POSSIBLE TOWARDS SUNRISE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE BEGINNING ON MONDAY. ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING WARMER AND
MOISTURE AIR BACK INTO THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. EVEN SO...DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. WITH THE WARMING TREND...HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL REACH INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 70S...THEN INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S TUESDAY.
LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S.
CHANGES WILL BEGIN LATER IN THE DAY TUESDAY IN REGARDS TO POP
POTENTIAL. A COLD FRONT OFF TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION WILL BE
STRENGTHENING AND MOVING TOWARDS THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY
TUESDAY. MUCH OF THE DAY TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY...BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO GO WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAINFALL LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON TUESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT
MOVING TOWARDS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND GRADUALLY PUSHING EAST
OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
BEGINNING OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT AND LINGERING WEDNESDAY. ONLY
MARGINAL INSTABILITY WITH THE SYSTEM WEDNESDAY. THE SYSTEM EXITS
THE AREA BY THURSDAY AS A STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER
IN THE SOUTHEAST. SIGNIFICANT COOLING OF HIGH TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER THE
AREA THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SHOW A TONGUE OF SURFACE MOISTURE ADVECTING
NORTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA INTO WEST CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA.
HOWEVER FLOW AT THE SURFACE CONTINUES TO BE LIGHT SO SURFACE
MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE SLOWER THAN THAT JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE
AS A LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS...BUT PER VAD WIND PROFILES...SEEMS
TO STEER THE BEST MOISTURE TO OUR WEST. HOWEVER...ELECTED TO KEEP
CURRENT FORECAST INTACT FOR NOW AS EVIDENCE IS STILL TOO COMPELLING
TO REMOVE THE CHANCE OF IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITY AT THIS
TIME. FOLLOWED A COMBINATION OF THE GFS/NAM AND RUC IN MAKING THE
FORECAST.
CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
LONGWAVE RIDGE WILL REBUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TUESDAY...KEEPING PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT...WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR VISIBILITY/
CEILINGS TUESDAY MORNING.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE AREA
MAY BRING WIDESPREAD MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...07
NEAR TERM...07
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...12
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
1246 AM EST MON NOV 14 2011
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE EASTWARD INTO MONDAY. A COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST WILL
APPROACH THE REGION TUESDAY BRINGING AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL BY MID- WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER AND COOLER AIR
FOR THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
MAINLY HIGH AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
EVENING. LIGHT WINDS...VARIABLE CLOUDINESS AND SOME INCREASE IN
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HELP TO KEEP MODERATING OVERNIGHT LOWS.
EXPECT READINGS IN THE UPPER 40S BY MORNING...WITH SOME PATCHY FOG
BEING POSSIBLE TOWARDS SUNRISE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE BEGINNING ON MONDAY. ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING WARMER AND
MOISTURE AIR BACK INTO THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. EVEN SO...DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. WITH THE WARMING TREND...HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL REACH INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 70S...THEN INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S TUESDAY.
LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S.
CHANGES WILL BEGIN LATER IN THE DAY TUESDAY IN REGARDS TO POP
POTENTIAL. A COLD FRONT OFF TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION WILL BE
STRENGTHENING AND MOVING TOWARDS THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY
TUESDAY. MUCH OF THE DAY TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY...BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO GO WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAINFALL LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON TUESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT
MOVING TOWARDS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND GRADUALLY PUSHING EAST
OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
BEGINNING OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT AND LINGERING WEDNESDAY. ONLY
MARGINAL INSTABILITY WITH THE SYSTEM WEDNESDAY. THE SYSTEM EXITS
THE AREA BY THURSDAY AS A STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER
IN THE SOUTHEAST. SIGNIFICANT COOLING OF HIGH TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER THE
AREA THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SHOW A TONGUE OF SURFACE MOISTURE ADVECTING
NORTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA INTO WEST CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA.
HOWEVER FLOW AT THE SURFACE CONTINUES TO BE LIGHT SO SURFACE
MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE SLOWER THAN THAT JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE
AS A LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS...BUT PER VAD WIND PROFILES...SEEMS
TO STEER THE BEST MOISTURE TO OUR WEST. HOWEVER...ELECTED TO KEEP
CURRENT FORECAST INTACT FOR NOW AS EVIDENCE IS STILL TOO COMPELLING
TO REMOVE THE CHANCE OF IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITY AT THIS
TIME. FOLLOWED A COMBINATION OF THE GFS/NAM AND RUC IN MAKING THE
FORECAST.
CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
LONGWAVE RIDGE WILL REBUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TUESDAY...KEEPING PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT...WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR VISIBILITY/
CEILINGS TUESDAY MORNING.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE AREA
MAY BRING WIDESPREAD MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NWS RAPID CITY SD
250 AM MST MON NOV 14 2011
.DISCUSSION...09Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE
CWA. REGIONAL RADAR LOOPS HAD ISOLATED -SHSN FROM MT INTO SD IN A
REGIME DOMINATED BY VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES...SEE 00Z KUNR
SOUNDING...AND A BIT OF MLCAPE PER LATEST RUC ANALYSIS. WATER
VAPOUR HAD MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL NORTH AMERICAN WITH
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO WESTERN CANADA.
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...DIRTY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH CONTINUE
WITH VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES FROM 850-600MB. MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED. HOWEVER...A PARADE OF SHORTWAVES WITH RATHER COLD 500MB
AIR WILL TRAVERSE THE CWA. SHOULD SEE ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. A COLDER PUSH OF AIR DROPS IN
TONIGHT WITH THE BEST 850-700MB FRONTOGENESIS. 850MB WINDS WILL
BE 20-35KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD AND THAT COMBINED WITH DEEP MIXING
WILL SUPPORT WINDY/GUSTY WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS. PRECIPITATION TYPE
SHOULD LEAN STRONGLY TOWARD -SHSN TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT GIVEN
LOWER TROPOSPHERIC THERMAL PROFILES. CHILLY DAY EXPECTED TUESDAY.
WEDNESDAY...UPPER FLOW SLOWLY BECOME LESS CYCLONIC WITH UPPER
RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE ROCKIES. STILL COLD THOUGH GIVEN 850-700MB
TEMPERATURES.
EXTENDED...UPPER RIDGE SLIDES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
THURSDAY...WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
STRONG UPPER TROF PUSHES THROUGH THE WEST COAST FRIDAY...WITH UPPER
FLOW SHIFTING SOUTHWEST OVER OUR AREA. WEAK ENERGY WILL EJECT OVER
THE AREA AHEAD OF THE TROF AS IT SLOWLY APPROACHES...BRINGING
CHANCES FOR PRECIP LATE FRIDAY. BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL OCCUR
OVER THE WEEKEND AS UPPER TROF SLIDES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO BELOW AVERAGE FROM FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...06Z TAF UPDATE
SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY WESTERLY AT 10-20 KTS THROUGH THIS
MORNING...AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED -SHRA/SHSN WILL CONTINUE TO CROSS NERN WY AND WRN SD FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY...PRODUCING LOCALIZED MVFR
CONDITIONS.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM....15
AVIATION...15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
1053 AM EST MON NOV 14 2011
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION THIS MORNING AND THROUGH OUR REGION BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL THEN STALL OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION
AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG IT ON WEDNESDAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR MUCH
OF THE TIME THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1050 AM EST...CLOUDS HAVE INCREASED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION...WITH PATCHY LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
CAPITAL REGION...EXTENDING SOUTH AND WEST INTO THE SCHOHARIE
VALLEY AND CATSKILLS. INCREASING MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD
SUPPORT A GENERAL EXPANSION OF LIGHT RAIN THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
CAPITAL REGION...AND EVENTUALLY AREAS N OF THE MOHAWK RIVER BY
EARLY/MID AFTERNOON...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST HRRR AND
RUC13. THE LOW LEVELS REMAIN SOMEWHAT DRY...ESP IN THE
VALLEYS...WHERE LATEST DEWPOINTS REMAINED IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
SO...ONCE RAIN DEVELOPS...WET BULB COOLING SHOULD
COMMENCE...LIMITING MUCH FURTHER RISE IN TEMPS. SO...HAVE TWEAKED
MAX TEMPS DOWNWARD BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES...ALTHOUGH NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE REGION MAY STILL EXPERIENCE A BIT MORE WARMING AS
THE RAIN HOLDS OFF A BIT. PLACES SUCH AS BENNINGTON VT WILL LIKELY
REACH THE MID 60S BEFORE COOLING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
WE HAVE ALSO BOOSTED WINDS A BIT OVER THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS WITHIN
THE IMMEDIATE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...WHERE SOME GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH
ARE POSSIBLE...ESP AS THE RAIN BEGINS...AND STRONG EVAPORATIONAL
COOLING HELPS DRAG STRONGER WINDS FROM ALOFT DOWNWARD.
OTHERWISE...JUST SOME MODIFICATIONS TO HOURLY TEMPS/DEWPOINTS
BASED ON RECENT OBS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
AS OF 630 AM...PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND VERY MILD TEMPS
PREVAILED ACROSS THE FA WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE 40S TO MID
50S. HAVE ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS TO REFLECT INCREASING CLOUDS THIS
MORNING AND HAVE BACKED OFF TIMING OF ONSET OF SHOWERS BY SEVERAL
HOURS AS MUCH OF LEADING EDGE OF PCPN ON MOSAIC RADAR LOOP
CURRENTLY VIRGA WITH PCPN REACHING THE GROUND BACK ACROSS WESTERN PA.
AS OF 4 AM...CLOUDY SKIES AND MILD TEMPS PREVAILED ACROSS THE FA
WITH READINGS GENERALLY IN THE 40S AND 50S. MUCH OF THE FA WAS DRY
EXCEPT FOR A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.
THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT IN TERMS OF THE H5
TROF AXIS ACRS THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY TODAY AND THE LOW
PRESSURE CENTER AT THE SURFACE MOVING INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES EXIST IN THE
QPF FIELDS ESPECIALLY CONCERNING THE AREA OF SHOWERS LIFTING EAST
NORTHEAST FROM WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE GFS
AND TO A LESSER DEGREE THE NAM HAVE QPF AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER TO A
HALF INCH ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA WITH THESE SHOWERS
WHILE THE ECMWF AND THE GGEM HAVE THE SHOWERS WEAKENING AS THEY
MOVE INTO THE FA WITH THE HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS DURING THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FA AHEAD OF THE LOW
MOVING INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH A
COMPROMISE SOLUTION ON QPF AND MAINLY CHANCE POPS AS MUCH OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE SCATTERED IN NATURE BY THE TIME IT
REACHES FA STARTING LATER THIS MORNING. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MILD TODAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S AS H8
TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE +8 TO +9 C RANGE. IT WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO
BE WINDY AS PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS FAIRLY STRONG AHEAD OF
APPROACHING LOW. GENERALLY EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS 1O TO 20 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES WILL RESULT IN THE BULK OF THE PCPN FALLING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA THIS EVENING. THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY IMPROVING CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT
WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE FA IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW AND BE
POSITIONED JUST SOUTH OF THE FA BY TUESDAY MORNING. FOR TONIGHT
HAVE PLACED HIGHEST POPS NORTH AND WEST THIS EVENING AND LOWEST
POPS SOUTH AND EAST. ALSO EXPECT THAT THERE MAY BE A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER THIS EVENING AND HAVE PLACED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
GRIDS AS SHOWALTER INDICES FALL TO JUST BELOW ZERO ALONG WITH ML
MUCAPES OF SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG. EXPECT QPF AMOUNTS THROUGH
TONIGHT TO GENERALLY BE BETWEEN A QUARTER AND A HALF INCH IN MOST
PLACES WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS NORTHWEST AND LOWEST AMOUNTS
SOUTHEAST. LOWS OVERNIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 40S TO
LOWER 50S.
TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY AT THIS POINT AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE FA IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION.
EXPECT THAT THERE WILL BE MORE SUN NORTH AND LESS SUN SOUTH WITH
HIGHS STILL RELATIVELY MILD IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.
FOR THE PERIOD FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE
MODELS DIVERGE AGAIN IN SOLUTIONS REGARDING A WAVE OR WAVES OF
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED
TO OUR SOUTH. THE NAM IS MUCH QUICKER AND HAS MUCH LESS OF AN
IMPACT ON THE FA THAN THE OTHER MODELS REGARDING THIS
FEATURE...WHILE THE GGEM AND GFS ARE SIMILAR WITH A MAINLY WED EVENT
AND THE ECMWF IS CONSIDERABLY SLOWER WITH A FARTHER NORTH AND
WEST EXTENT OF THE PCPN SHIELD AND A LATER ARRIVAL AND DEPARTURE
TIME OF THE PCPN MAINLY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING. WILL COMPROMISE ON THESE LATER TWO SOLUTIONS AND HAVE
HIGHEST POPS SOUTHEAST AND LOWEST POPS NORTHWEST FROM LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT ANY
LINGERING PCPN ACROSS SRN VT AND THE NRN BERKS WED EVENING MAY END
AS A LITTLE BIT OF SNOW WITH H8 TEMPS DROPPING TO -2 TO -4 C BY
06Z THU. THE SECOND HALF OF WED NIGHT LOOKS DRY IN THE WAKE OF
DEPARTING LOW. EXPECT LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S...HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S AND LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S. TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS FROM
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH NORTHWEST TO AROUND HALF AN INCH SOUTHEAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT THE START OF THIS PERIOD...AN UPPER TROF WILL APPROACH THE
REGION AND PASS THROUGH FAIRLY QUICKLY. BROAD RIDGING WILL BEGIN
TO SET IN ON FRIDAY. BRISK WEST NORTHWEST WINDS WILL USHER IN
COOLER AIR FOR THE START...ALONG WITH SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN
INSTABILITY SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE ALBANY
AREA WHERE SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT MAY ALLOW FOR SOME RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO AROUND 50 IN THE HUDSON VALLEY
SOUTH OF ALBANY...COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
OVERHEAD...WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS AND CHANCE POPS NORTH AND WEST
DIMINISHING TO NO POPS OVER MUCH OF THE HUDSON VALLEY...OR LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS AND UPPER MOHAWK VALLEY...BUT THE REST OF THE REGION
SHOULD BE DRY AND CHILLY THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM
THE LOWER 20S ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS...
CATSKILLS...SOUTHERN VERMONT...AND THE BERKSHIRES TO THE MID AND
UPPER 20S IN THE MOHAWK...HUDSON...AND HOUSATONIC VALLEYS...WITH
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS NORTH AND WEST AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
OVER THE HUDSON VALLEY AND FARTHER EAST.
THE TROUGH EXITS OUT THE REGION AS BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW AT 500 HPA
TAKES OVER FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH
WILL ALLOW FOR WARMING STARTING ON FRIDAY. WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES HIGHS FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO THE
UPPER 40S. IT WILL NOT BE AS COLD FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS FROM THE
MID 20S TO THE LOWER 30S.
ON SATURDAY...ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE PLAINS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD SOME CLOUDINESS INTO THE REGION
WITH AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT. IN SPITE OF INCREASED CLOUDINESS
SATURDAY WILL BE WARMER WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 40S TO THE LOW 50S.
AS THE WARM FRONT GETS CLOSER SATURDAY NIGHT IT WILL BRING ABOUT AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST. IT WILL BE MILDER ON
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 30S. SUNDAY WILL BE MOSTLY
CLOUDY WITH A POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST
OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. HIGHS WILL BE FROM THE MID 40S TO THE LOWER
50S...ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
00Z TUESDAY...BUT CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO DETERIORATE STARTING
THIS EVENING.
THERE WERE SOME HIGH AND MIDLEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE REGION EARLY THIS
MONDAY MORNING. A LOW CENTER MOVING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY UP THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL SPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS INTO THE SOUTHERN
PART OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...AND FARTHER NORTH STARTING THIS
EVENING.
DURING THE DAY TODAY...CIGS WILL GENERALLY BE BROKEN TO OVERCAST
5000 TO 10000 FT...UNTIL MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...AFTER WHICH THEY
WILL LOWER TO AROUND 3500 FT. THE MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE PLACEMENT OR TIMING OF PRECIP. WITH WEAK FORCING IN
PLACE...ANY SHOWERS WILL SCATTERED AND RATHER LIGHT IN INTENSITY.
FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH A VCSH IN THE TAFS DURING MUCH OF THE
DAY...WITH PRECIP MORE DEFINITE DURING THE MID AFTERNOON TO THE
SOUTH AND NOT UNTIL THE LATE AFTERNOON FROM THE ALBANY AREA NORTH.
FOR THE TIME BEING...LOOKS LIKE VFR SHOULD PREDOMINATE...WITH
PERHAPS SOME AREAS OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH
AND WEST OF THE ALBANY AREA...EARLY AFTERNOON SOUTH OF THE ALBANY
AREA AND LATE AFTERNOON FARTHER NORTH.
CONDITIONS WILL BE MVFR THIS EVENING DUE TO LOW CIGS ALONG WITH
VISIBILITY 4 TO 5 MILES IN RAIN AND MIST...WITH AREAS OF IFR
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. CIGS ARE LIKELY TO DETERIORATE TO IFR
AFTER MIDNIGHT.
WINDS WERE CALM AT KPOU AND SOUTHERLY AT KALB AND KGFL. THEY
WILL CONTINUE SOUTHERLY 5 TO 10 KNOTS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
WITH SOMEWHAT HIGHER SPEEDS AT KALB.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...IFR/MVFR IMPROVING TO VFR.
TUE NGT...SUB-VFR CIG...LIKELY -SHRA.
WED-WED NGT...VFR/MVFR...CHC -SHRA.
THU...VFR...BREEZY.
FRI...VFR...NO SIG WX.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK.
UP TO A HALF INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
THIS RAIN MIGHT CAUSE SOME MINOR INCREASES IN STREAMFLOWS...BUT
MOST OF IT WILL JUST SOAK INTO THE GROUND.
MORE RAINFALL MAY OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...BUT AGAIN IT LOOKS LIKE
AMOUNTS SHOULD NOT BE MUCH MORE THAN A HALF INCH...IF THAT MUCH.
AGAIN THIS RAIN WILL MOSTLY JUST SOAK INTO THE GROUND...AND NOT
HAVE MUCH EFFECT ON THE RIVERS AND STREAMS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...11
NEAR TERM...KL/11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...RCK
AVIATION...RCK
HYDROLOGY...RCK/11
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NWS RAPID CITY SD
505 AM MST MON NOV 14 2011
.AVIATION...12Z TAFS
SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY WESTERLY AT 10-20 KTS THROUGH THIS
MORNING...AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED -SHRA/SHSN WILL CONTINUE TO CROSS NERN WY AND WRN SD FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY...PRODUCING LOCALIZED MVFR
CONDITIONS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 AM MST MON NOV 14 2011/
DISCUSSION...09Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE
CWA. REGIONAL RADAR LOOPS HAD ISOLATED -SHSN FROM MT INTO SD IN A
REGIME DOMINATED BY VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES...SEE 00Z KUNR
SOUNDING...AND A BIT OF MLCAPE PER LATEST RUC ANALYSIS. WATER
VAPOUR HAD MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL NORTH AMERICAN WITH
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO WESTERN CANADA.
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...DIRTY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH CONTINUE
WITH VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES FROM 850-600MB. MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED. HOWEVER...A PARADE OF SHORTWAVES WITH RATHER COLD 500MB
AIR WILL TRAVERSE THE CWA. SHOULD SEE ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. A COLDER PUSH OF AIR DROPS IN
TONIGHT WITH THE BEST 850-700MB FRONTOGENESIS. 850MB WINDS WILL
BE 20-35KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD AND THAT COMBINED WITH DEEP MIXING
WILL SUPPORT WINDY/GUSTY WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS. PRECIPITATION TYPE
SHOULD LEAN STRONGLY TOWARD -SHSN TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT GIVEN
LOWER TROPOSPHERIC THERMAL PROFILES. CHILLY DAY EXPECTED TUESDAY.
WEDNESDAY...UPPER FLOW SLOWLY BECOME LESS CYCLONIC WITH UPPER
RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE ROCKIES. STILL COLD THOUGH GIVEN 850-700MB
TEMPERATURES.
EXTENDED...UPPER RIDGE SLIDES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
THURSDAY...WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
STRONG UPPER TROF PUSHES THROUGH THE WEST COAST FRIDAY...WITH UPPER
FLOW SHIFTING SOUTHWEST OVER OUR AREA. WEAK ENERGY WILL EJECT OVER
THE AREA AHEAD OF THE TROF AS IT SLOWLY APPROACHES...BRINGING
CHANCES FOR PRECIP LATE FRIDAY. BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL OCCUR
OVER THE WEEKEND AS UPPER TROF SLIDES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO BELOW AVERAGE FROM FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM....15
AVIATION...15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
307 PM MST MON NOV 14 2011
.SHORT TERM...
(TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS EL PASO AND
PUEBLO COUNTIES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...DUE TO A COMBINATION OF
LEE TROFFING AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MODELS DID NOT HAVE A VERY
GOOD HANDLE ON DEW POINTS TODAY...AS DRY AIR BEHIND YESTERDAY`S
DEPARTING SYSTEM TANKED DEW POINTS INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND
10 DEGREES ALONG THE LOWER EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS
AND I-25 CORRIDOR. RUC13 AND HRRR WERE THE FIRST TO CATCH ON TO
THIS. SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT IS TIGHTEST ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA WHICH WILL KEEP BREEZY WEST WINDS ACROSS PUEBLO AND EL PASO
COUNTY THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. FARTHER EAST OF
THE I-25 CORRIDOR...HAVE SEEN SOME OCCASIONALLY BREEZY WEST WINDS
KICK IN AS FAR EAST AS LHX...HOWEVER THEY HAVE BEEN LESS
PERSISTENT...AND THINK THAT IT WON`T QUITE MAKE THE 3 HOUR DURATION
REQUIRED FOR A RED FLAG WARNING. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER 00Z.
WITH THE DRY AIR IN PLACE...CHALLENGE WILL BE HOW COOL LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP. LOWER EASTERN SLOPES NEAR THE MTS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE SOME WESTERLY DRAINAGE WINDS OVERNIGHT WHICH
SHOULD KEEP MIN TEMPS AROUND 40. HOWEVER WHERE WINDS
DECOUPLE...EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP
QUICKLY. HAVE GONE ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR LOWS NEAR THE MTS...BUT KEPT
MINS ON THE LOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE ELSEWHERE.
FOR TOMORROW...NEXT WEAK WAVE EMBEDDED IN NW FLOW ALOFT WILL
APPROACH THE AREA. SHOULD SEE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS RAMP UP FOR
THE CENTRAL MTS. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHTER TOMORROW ACROSS THE
PLAINS...THOUGH A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH NRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
IN THE AFTERNOON. OVERALL TEMPS SHOULD NET A FEW DEGREES COOLER
ACROSS THE PLAINS. ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS MAY SPREAD ACROSS NORTHERN
EL PASO COUNTY IN THE LATE AFTN AS UPPER JET DYNAMICS MOVES IN ALOFT
AND FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. THINK MAIN THREAT WILL BE IN THE
EVENING...SO WILL MAINTAIN THE 10 POPS FOR NOW. -KT
.LONG TERM...
(TUESDAY NIGHT-MONDAY)
TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION AS ANOTHER EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE
TRANSLATES ACROSS THE ROCKIES. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND CROSS SECTIONS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A FAIRLY SHALLOW LAYER OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE
STREAMING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT DIFFER ON LOCATION
OF BEST UVV WITH WITH PASSING JET CORE. AT ANY RATE...WITH CONTINUED
GOOD OROGRAPHIC FLOW...BEST POPS TO REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN
SAWATCH AND MOSQUITO RANGES EARLY TUESDAY EVENING WITH ANY SNOWFALL
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT TUESDAY. HAVE ALSO KEPT SLIGHT POPS ACROSS THE
PIKES PEAK REGION AS WELL...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A QUICK SHOT A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE GENERALLY
BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE PLAINS
WITH LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY...MODERATING WESTERLY FLOW PROGGED ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS JET STREAM LIFTS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER OF STATES. DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPS WARMING BACK TO
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES CAN BE EXPECTED. LEE TROUGHING ON THE PLAINS
WILL ALSO LEAD TO BREEZY CONDITIONS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
FRIDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...MODELS COMING INTO THE BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
SNOWFALL BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
ALONG AND WEST OF THE CONTDVD AS WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES
AHEAD OF AN EASTERN PACIFIC SYSTEM DIGGING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN
FRIDAY WHICH CONTINUES TO LIFT OUT ACROSS THE STATE ON SATURDAY.
PASSING WAVE LOOKS TO BRING ANOTHER BOUT OF WINDY TO VERY WINDY
CONDITIONS TO THE EASTERN MTS AND PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGING IN A MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS TO
THE AREA ON SUNDAY. AT THIS TIME...THE BULK OF THE COLDEST AIR LOOKS
TO REMAIN WELL EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...THOUGH WILL
NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR. -MW
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL 3 TAF SITES THROUGH TUESDAY. SOME GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT THE TAF SITES UNTIL 01-02Z...WITH
LIGHT DRAINAGE WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. ON TUESDAY...WEAK FRONT
WILL DROP THROUGH THE PLAINS WITH WINDS AT KCOS STAYING OUT OF THE
NW DURING THE MORNING. FOR KPUB...FRONT WILL LIKELY BACKDOOR IN
WITH WINDS SWITCHING AROUND FROM THE EAST DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON. MAIN NORTHERLY SURGE WITH THE FRONT WILL DROP IN
TOMORROW EVENING BRINGING A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTH WINDS OF 15
TO 25 KTS. MEANWHILE...WINDS AT KALS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OVERNIGHT
BEFORE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH AROUND 10 KTS TUES AFTN. -KT
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ226>228.
&&
$$
31/23
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1030 AM MST MON NOV 14 2011
.UPDATE...
MUCH DRIER AIR HAS MOVED INTO EL PASO COUNTY BEHIND YESTERDAY`S DEPARTING
SYSTEM. DEW POINTS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND
10 DEGREES. RUC AND HRRR HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE CURRENT
CONDITIONS THAN NAM12. BREEZY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO KICK IN BY AFTERNOON...AND WITH HUMIDITIES NOW ANTICIPATED TO
BE BELOW 15 PERCENT...THIS WILL RESULT IN CRITICAL CONDITIONS FOR
FIRE WEATHER. THIS WILL BE LONGEST IN DURATION ACROSS EL PASO AND
PUEBLO COUNTIES. HOWEVER...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THESE GUSTY
WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES TO SPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS OF CROWLEY AND
OTERO COUNTIES AS WELL. FOR NOW...THINK THE 3 HOUR DURATION OF
CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE MET ACROSS CROWLEY AND OTERO...SO
WILL LIMIT RED FLAG WARNING TO PUEBLO AND EL PASO COUNTIES FOR NOW
AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT TAF SITES TODAY. GUSTY WEST TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE AT 15-25 KTS AT KCOS AND KPUB BETWEEN 19-20Z.
PERIODIC MTN OBSCURATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE TODAY WITH ISOLATED -SHSN.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 AM MST MON NOV 14 2011/
SHORT TERM...
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
QUIET WX EXPECTED FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE TROUGH THAT BROUGHT US
STRONG WINDS OVR THE WEEKEND IS NOW MOVING INTO WRN KS. WILL SEE
BREEZY CONDITIONS OVR THE MTNS AND PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS WIND DOWN
THIS MORNING AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES EWD. TEMPS TODAY WILL BE A FEW DEG
COOLER AS TEMPS ALOFT FALL A FEW DEGREES. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A BIT
OF MOISTURE STREAM OVR THE CONTDVD N OF KMYP...SO A FEW SHSN NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION FOR LAKE AND CHAFFEE COUNTIES...PARTICULARLY FOR THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. BEST CHANCE FOR SN WILL BE EARLY MON MORNING. NOT
EXPECTING ANY ACCUMS. IT WILL REMAIN DRY WITH A FAIR AMT OF SUN
ELSEWHERE. 44
LONG TERM...
(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
TWO WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT PARTS OF THE REGION DURING THIS FCST
PERIOD. THE FIRST WILL BE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING...AND THE 2ND
WILL BE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. BOTH OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL
AFFECT MAINLY THE MTNS ALONG THE CONTDVD.
TUESDAYS SYSTEM WILL BE A QUICK MOVING SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE
STOUT NW FLOW THAT WILL BE OVER THE REGION DURING THIS TIME.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOWS TO THE C MTNS
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING. IT MAY ALSO BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE
PIKES PEAK REGION TUESDAY EVENING.
THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE A LARGE BROAD WAVE WHICH IS FCST TO
TRANSLATE RATHER QUICKLY ACROSS THE W CONUS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SAT.
THIS LARGE SCALE WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AS AN OPEN WAVE
AND EXPECT THE ONLY SENSIBLE WX (SNOW) WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
CONTDVD. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE.
EXCEPT FOR TUESDAYS SYSTEM...THE PLAINS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY
DURING THIS PERIOD. TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD BE
SEASONABLE. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS MAY OCCUR ON THE PLAINS IN
ADVANCE OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH ON SATURDAY.
THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP FOR THE PLAINS CONTINUES TO BE BEYOND THIS
FCST PERIOD...AND THIS CHANCE WILL OCCUR NEXT TUESDAY...22 NOV.
/34
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE TAF SITES NEXT 24 H. WINDS SHOULD RELAX THIS
MORNING AND REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME PARTIAL MTN
OBSCURATION POSSIBLE ALONG THE CONTDVD N OF KMYP IN PERSISTENT SCT
SHSN. 44
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ226>228.
&&
$$
31/23
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
113 PM EST MON NOV 14 2011
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION THIS MORNING AND THROUGH OUR REGION BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL THEN STALL OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION
AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG IT ON WEDNESDAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR MUCH
OF THE TIME THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1PM EST...RAIN SHOWERS PASSING OVER THE CAPITAL REGION HAVE
ALREADY COOLED TEMPS TO LOW 50S. ELSEWHERE...CLOUDS FINALLY
STARTING TO SPREAD OVER THE REST OF THE CWA. PRECIP STILL CONFINED
MOSTLY TO CENTER OF CWA. INCREASED POPS OVER THIS AREA AS PRECIP
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THERE. WINDS ALSO SLOW TO INCREASE WITH GUSTS
ONLY CURRENTLY OCCURING AT GFL. HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPS AND WINDS TO
ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS.
AS OF 1050 AM EST...CLOUDS HAVE INCREASED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION...WITH PATCHY LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
CAPITAL REGION...EXTENDING SOUTH AND WEST INTO THE SCHOHARIE
VALLEY AND CATSKILLS. INCREASING MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD
SUPPORT A GENERAL EXPANSION OF LIGHT RAIN THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
CAPITAL REGION...AND EVENTUALLY AREAS N OF THE MOHAWK RIVER BY
EARLY/MID AFTERNOON...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST HRRR AND
RUC13. THE LOW LEVELS REMAIN SOMEWHAT DRY...ESP IN THE
VALLEYS...WHERE LATEST DEWPOINTS REMAINED IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
SO...ONCE RAIN DEVELOPS...WET BULB COOLING SHOULD
COMMENCE...LIMITING MUCH FURTHER RISE IN TEMPS. SO...HAVE TWEAKED
MAX TEMPS DOWNWARD BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES...ALTHOUGH NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE REGION MAY STILL EXPERIENCE A BIT MORE WARMING AS
THE RAIN HOLDS OFF A BIT. PLACES SUCH AS BENNINGTON VT WILL LIKELY
REACH THE MID 60S BEFORE COOLING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
WE HAVE ALSO BOOSTED WINDS A BIT OVER THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS WITHIN
THE IMMEDIATE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...WHERE SOME GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH
ARE POSSIBLE...ESP AS THE RAIN BEGINS...AND STRONG EVAPORATIONAL
COOLING HELPS DRAG STRONGER WINDS FROM ALOFT DOWNWARD.
OTHERWISE...JUST SOME MODIFICATIONS TO HOURLY TEMPS/DEWPOINTS
BASED ON RECENT OBS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
AS OF 630 AM...PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND VERY MILD TEMPS
PREVAILED ACROSS THE FA WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE 40S TO MID
50S. HAVE ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS TO REFLECT INCREASING CLOUDS THIS
MORNING AND HAVE BACKED OFF TIMING OF ONSET OF SHOWERS BY SEVERAL
HOURS AS MUCH OF LEADING EDGE OF PCPN ON MOSAIC RADAR LOOP
CURRENTLY VIRGA WITH PCPN REACHING THE GROUND BACK ACROSS WESTERN PA.
AS OF 4 AM...CLOUDY SKIES AND MILD TEMPS PREVAILED ACROSS THE FA
WITH READINGS GENERALLY IN THE 40S AND 50S. MUCH OF THE FA WAS DRY
EXCEPT FOR A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.
THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT IN TERMS OF THE H5
TROF AXIS ACRS THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY TODAY AND THE LOW
PRESSURE CENTER AT THE SURFACE MOVING INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES EXIST IN THE
QPF FIELDS ESPECIALLY CONCERNING THE AREA OF SHOWERS LIFTING EAST
NORTHEAST FROM WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE GFS
AND TO A LESSER DEGREE THE NAM HAVE QPF AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER TO A
HALF INCH ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA WITH THESE SHOWERS
WHILE THE ECMWF AND THE GGEM HAVE THE SHOWERS WEAKENING AS THEY
MOVE INTO THE FA WITH THE HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS DURING THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FA AHEAD OF THE LOW
MOVING INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH A
COMPROMISE SOLUTION ON QPF AND MAINLY CHANCE POPS AS MUCH OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE SCATTERED IN NATURE BY THE TIME IT
REACHES FA STARTING LATER THIS MORNING. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MILD TODAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S AS H8
TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE +8 TO +9 C RANGE. IT WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO
BE WINDY AS PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS FAIRLY STRONG AHEAD OF
APPROACHING LOW. GENERALLY EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS 1O TO 20 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES WILL RESULT IN THE BULK OF THE PCPN FALLING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA THIS EVENING. THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY IMPROVING CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT
WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE FA IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW AND BE
POSITIONED JUST SOUTH OF THE FA BY TUESDAY MORNING. FOR TONIGHT
HAVE PLACED HIGHEST POPS NORTH AND WEST THIS EVENING AND LOWEST
POPS SOUTH AND EAST. ALSO EXPECT THAT THERE MAY BE A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER THIS EVENING AND HAVE PLACED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
GRIDS AS SHOWALTER INDICES FALL TO JUST BELOW ZERO ALONG WITH ML
MUCAPES OF SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG. EXPECT QPF AMOUNTS THROUGH
TONIGHT TO GENERALLY BE BETWEEN A QUARTER AND A HALF INCH IN MOST
PLACES WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS NORTHWEST AND LOWEST AMOUNTS
SOUTHEAST. LOWS OVERNIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 40S TO
LOWER 50S.
TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY AT THIS POINT AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE FA IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION.
EXPECT THAT THERE WILL BE MORE SUN NORTH AND LESS SUN SOUTH WITH
HIGHS STILL RELATIVELY MILD IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.
FOR THE PERIOD FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE
MODELS DIVERGE AGAIN IN SOLUTIONS REGARDING A WAVE OR WAVES OF
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED
TO OUR SOUTH. THE NAM IS MUCH QUICKER AND HAS MUCH LESS OF AN
IMPACT ON THE FA THAN THE OTHER MODELS REGARDING THIS
FEATURE...WHILE THE GGEM AND GFS ARE SIMILAR WITH A MAINLY WED EVENT
AND THE ECMWF IS CONSIDERABLY SLOWER WITH A FARTHER NORTH AND
WEST EXTENT OF THE PCPN SHIELD AND A LATER ARRIVAL AND DEPARTURE
TIME OF THE PCPN MAINLY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING. WILL COMPROMISE ON THESE LATER TWO SOLUTIONS AND HAVE
HIGHEST POPS SOUTHEAST AND LOWEST POPS NORTHWEST FROM LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT ANY
LINGERING PCPN ACROSS SRN VT AND THE NRN BERKS WED EVENING MAY END
AS A LITTLE BIT OF SNOW WITH H8 TEMPS DROPPING TO -2 TO -4 C BY
06Z THU. THE SECOND HALF OF WED NIGHT LOOKS DRY IN THE WAKE OF
DEPARTING LOW. EXPECT LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S...HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S AND LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S. TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS FROM
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH NORTHWEST TO AROUND HALF AN INCH SOUTHEAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT THE START OF THIS PERIOD...AN UPPER TROF WILL APPROACH THE
REGION AND PASS THROUGH FAIRLY QUICKLY. BROAD RIDGING WILL BEGIN
TO SET IN ON FRIDAY. BRISK WEST NORTHWEST WINDS WILL USHER IN
COOLER AIR FOR THE START...ALONG WITH SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN
INSTABILITY SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE ALBANY
AREA WHERE SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT MAY ALLOW FOR SOME RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO AROUND 50 IN THE HUDSON VALLEY
SOUTH OF ALBANY...COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
OVERHEAD...WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS AND CHANCE POPS NORTH AND WEST
DIMINISHING TO NO POPS OVER MUCH OF THE HUDSON VALLEY...OR LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS AND UPPER MOHAWK VALLEY...BUT THE REST OF THE REGION
SHOULD BE DRY AND CHILLY THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM
THE LOWER 20S ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS...
CATSKILLS...SOUTHERN VERMONT...AND THE BERKSHIRES TO THE MID AND
UPPER 20S IN THE MOHAWK...HUDSON...AND HOUSATONIC VALLEYS...WITH
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS NORTH AND WEST AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
OVER THE HUDSON VALLEY AND FARTHER EAST.
THE TROUGH EXITS OUT THE REGION AS BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW AT 500 HPA
TAKES OVER FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH
WILL ALLOW FOR WARMING STARTING ON FRIDAY. WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES HIGHS FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO THE
UPPER 40S. IT WILL NOT BE AS COLD FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS FROM THE
MID 20S TO THE LOWER 30S.
ON SATURDAY...ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE PLAINS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD SOME CLOUDINESS INTO THE REGION
WITH AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT. IN SPITE OF INCREASED CLOUDINESS
SATURDAY WILL BE WARMER WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 40S TO THE LOW 50S.
AS THE WARM FRONT GETS CLOSER SATURDAY NIGHT IT WILL BRING ABOUT AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST. IT WILL BE MILDER ON
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 30S. SUNDAY WILL BE MOSTLY
CLOUDY WITH A POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST
OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. HIGHS WILL BE FROM THE MID 40S TO THE LOWER
50S...ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1245 PM EST...LIGHT RAIN HAS DEVELOPED AT KALB...WHILE
REMAINING GENERALLY NORTH OF KPOU...AND THUS FAR...SOUTH OF KGFL.
HOWEVER...THE RAIN SHOULD EXPAND NORTH AND EAST DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN AFFECTING KALB AND
KGFL THROUGH SUNSET. DESPITE THIS LIGHT RAIN...EXPECT MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS...POSSIBLY BECOMING MVFR FOR CIGS TOWARD SUNSET. AT
KPOU...OTHER THAN PERHAPS A FEW SPRINKLES...EXPECT MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNSET.
FOR TONIGHT...THE RAIN SHOULD BECOME MORE SHOWERY AT KALB AND
KGFL...AS A WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. THEN...AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NW...EXPECT A BAND OF SHOWERS TO GRADUALLY
SETTLE SOUTHEAST ACROSS KGFL AND KALB ONCE AGAIN LATER THIS
EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A RUMBLE OF THUNDER COULD BE
EMBEDDED WITHIN THESE SHOWERS...BUT DUE TO OVERALL LOW
PROBABILITY...HAVE KEPT OUT ANY MENTION AT THIS TIME. EXPECT MVFR
TO ISOLATED IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.
THE SHOWERS SHOULD THEN SETTLE SOUTHWARD AFTER MIDNIGHT...TAPERING
OFF AT KGFL AND KALB BEFORE SUNRISE. AT KPOU...LITTLE IF ANY RAIN
IS EXPECTED UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING...WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AS THE
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. ALL AREAS SHOULD THEN TREND INTO VFR BY
MID TO LATE MORNING TUE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...IFR/MVFR IMPROVING TO VFR BY AFTERNOON.
TUE NGT...SUB-VFR CIG...LIKELY -SHRA.
WED-WED NGT...VFR/MVFR...CHC -SHRA.
THU...VFR...BREEZY.
FRI-SAT...VFR...NO SIG WX.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK.
UP TO A HALF INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
THIS RAIN MIGHT CAUSE SOME MINOR INCREASES IN STREAMFLOWS...BUT
MOST OF IT WILL JUST SOAK INTO THE GROUND.
MORE RAINFALL MAY OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...BUT AGAIN IT LOOKS LIKE
AMOUNTS SHOULD NOT BE MUCH MORE THAN A HALF INCH...IF THAT MUCH.
AGAIN THIS RAIN WILL MOSTLY JUST SOAK INTO THE GROUND...AND NOT
HAVE MUCH EFFECT ON THE RIVERS AND STREAMS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...11
NEAR TERM...KL/KGM/11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...RCK
AVIATION...RCK/KL
HYDROLOGY...RCK/11
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
1246 PM EST MON NOV 14 2011
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION THIS MORNING AND THROUGH OUR REGION BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL THEN STALL OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION
AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG IT ON WEDNESDAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR MUCH
OF THE TIME THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1050 AM EST...CLOUDS HAVE INCREASED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION...WITH PATCHY LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
CAPITAL REGION...EXTENDING SOUTH AND WEST INTO THE SCHOHARIE
VALLEY AND CATSKILLS. INCREASING MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD
SUPPORT A GENERAL EXPANSION OF LIGHT RAIN THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
CAPITAL REGION...AND EVENTUALLY AREAS N OF THE MOHAWK RIVER BY
EARLY/MID AFTERNOON...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST HRRR AND
RUC13. THE LOW LEVELS REMAIN SOMEWHAT DRY...ESP IN THE
VALLEYS...WHERE LATEST DEWPOINTS REMAINED IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
SO...ONCE RAIN DEVELOPS...WET BULB COOLING SHOULD
COMMENCE...LIMITING MUCH FURTHER RISE IN TEMPS. SO...HAVE TWEAKED
MAX TEMPS DOWNWARD BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES...ALTHOUGH NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE REGION MAY STILL EXPERIENCE A BIT MORE WARMING AS
THE RAIN HOLDS OFF A BIT. PLACES SUCH AS BENNINGTON VT WILL LIKELY
REACH THE MID 60S BEFORE COOLING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
WE HAVE ALSO BOOSTED WINDS A BIT OVER THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS WITHIN
THE IMMEDIATE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...WHERE SOME GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH
ARE POSSIBLE...ESP AS THE RAIN BEGINS...AND STRONG EVAPORATIONAL
COOLING HELPS DRAG STRONGER WINDS FROM ALOFT DOWNWARD.
OTHERWISE...JUST SOME MODIFICATIONS TO HOURLY TEMPS/DEWPOINTS
BASED ON RECENT OBS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
AS OF 630 AM...PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND VERY MILD TEMPS
PREVAILED ACROSS THE FA WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE 40S TO MID
50S. HAVE ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS TO REFLECT INCREASING CLOUDS THIS
MORNING AND HAVE BACKED OFF TIMING OF ONSET OF SHOWERS BY SEVERAL
HOURS AS MUCH OF LEADING EDGE OF PCPN ON MOSAIC RADAR LOOP
CURRENTLY VIRGA WITH PCPN REACHING THE GROUND BACK ACROSS WESTERN PA.
AS OF 4 AM...CLOUDY SKIES AND MILD TEMPS PREVAILED ACROSS THE FA
WITH READINGS GENERALLY IN THE 40S AND 50S. MUCH OF THE FA WAS DRY
EXCEPT FOR A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.
THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT IN TERMS OF THE H5
TROF AXIS ACRS THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY TODAY AND THE LOW
PRESSURE CENTER AT THE SURFACE MOVING INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES EXIST IN THE
QPF FIELDS ESPECIALLY CONCERNING THE AREA OF SHOWERS LIFTING EAST
NORTHEAST FROM WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE GFS
AND TO A LESSER DEGREE THE NAM HAVE QPF AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER TO A
HALF INCH ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA WITH THESE SHOWERS
WHILE THE ECMWF AND THE GGEM HAVE THE SHOWERS WEAKENING AS THEY
MOVE INTO THE FA WITH THE HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS DURING THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FA AHEAD OF THE LOW
MOVING INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH A
COMPROMISE SOLUTION ON QPF AND MAINLY CHANCE POPS AS MUCH OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE SCATTERED IN NATURE BY THE TIME IT
REACHES FA STARTING LATER THIS MORNING. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MILD TODAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S AS H8
TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE +8 TO +9 C RANGE. IT WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO
BE WINDY AS PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS FAIRLY STRONG AHEAD OF
APPROACHING LOW. GENERALLY EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS 1O TO 20 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES WILL RESULT IN THE BULK OF THE PCPN FALLING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA THIS EVENING. THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY IMPROVING CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT
WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE FA IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW AND BE
POSITIONED JUST SOUTH OF THE FA BY TUESDAY MORNING. FOR TONIGHT
HAVE PLACED HIGHEST POPS NORTH AND WEST THIS EVENING AND LOWEST
POPS SOUTH AND EAST. ALSO EXPECT THAT THERE MAY BE A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER THIS EVENING AND HAVE PLACED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
GRIDS AS SHOWALTER INDICES FALL TO JUST BELOW ZERO ALONG WITH ML
MUCAPES OF SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG. EXPECT QPF AMOUNTS THROUGH
TONIGHT TO GENERALLY BE BETWEEN A QUARTER AND A HALF INCH IN MOST
PLACES WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS NORTHWEST AND LOWEST AMOUNTS
SOUTHEAST. LOWS OVERNIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 40S TO
LOWER 50S.
TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY AT THIS POINT AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE FA IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION.
EXPECT THAT THERE WILL BE MORE SUN NORTH AND LESS SUN SOUTH WITH
HIGHS STILL RELATIVELY MILD IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.
FOR THE PERIOD FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE
MODELS DIVERGE AGAIN IN SOLUTIONS REGARDING A WAVE OR WAVES OF
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED
TO OUR SOUTH. THE NAM IS MUCH QUICKER AND HAS MUCH LESS OF AN
IMPACT ON THE FA THAN THE OTHER MODELS REGARDING THIS
FEATURE...WHILE THE GGEM AND GFS ARE SIMILAR WITH A MAINLY WED EVENT
AND THE ECMWF IS CONSIDERABLY SLOWER WITH A FARTHER NORTH AND
WEST EXTENT OF THE PCPN SHIELD AND A LATER ARRIVAL AND DEPARTURE
TIME OF THE PCPN MAINLY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING. WILL COMPROMISE ON THESE LATER TWO SOLUTIONS AND HAVE
HIGHEST POPS SOUTHEAST AND LOWEST POPS NORTHWEST FROM LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT ANY
LINGERING PCPN ACROSS SRN VT AND THE NRN BERKS WED EVENING MAY END
AS A LITTLE BIT OF SNOW WITH H8 TEMPS DROPPING TO -2 TO -4 C BY
06Z THU. THE SECOND HALF OF WED NIGHT LOOKS DRY IN THE WAKE OF
DEPARTING LOW. EXPECT LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S...HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S AND LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S. TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS FROM
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH NORTHWEST TO AROUND HALF AN INCH SOUTHEAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT THE START OF THIS PERIOD...AN UPPER TROF WILL APPROACH THE
REGION AND PASS THROUGH FAIRLY QUICKLY. BROAD RIDGING WILL BEGIN
TO SET IN ON FRIDAY. BRISK WEST NORTHWEST WINDS WILL USHER IN
COOLER AIR FOR THE START...ALONG WITH SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN
INSTABILITY SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE ALBANY
AREA WHERE SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT MAY ALLOW FOR SOME RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO AROUND 50 IN THE HUDSON VALLEY
SOUTH OF ALBANY...COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
OVERHEAD...WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS AND CHANCE POPS NORTH AND WEST
DIMINISHING TO NO POPS OVER MUCH OF THE HUDSON VALLEY...OR LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS AND UPPER MOHAWK VALLEY...BUT THE REST OF THE REGION
SHOULD BE DRY AND CHILLY THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM
THE LOWER 20S ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS...
CATSKILLS...SOUTHERN VERMONT...AND THE BERKSHIRES TO THE MID AND
UPPER 20S IN THE MOHAWK...HUDSON...AND HOUSATONIC VALLEYS...WITH
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS NORTH AND WEST AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
OVER THE HUDSON VALLEY AND FARTHER EAST.
THE TROUGH EXITS OUT THE REGION AS BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW AT 500 HPA
TAKES OVER FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH
WILL ALLOW FOR WARMING STARTING ON FRIDAY. WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES HIGHS FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO THE
UPPER 40S. IT WILL NOT BE AS COLD FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS FROM THE
MID 20S TO THE LOWER 30S.
ON SATURDAY...ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE PLAINS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD SOME CLOUDINESS INTO THE REGION
WITH AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT. IN SPITE OF INCREASED CLOUDINESS
SATURDAY WILL BE WARMER WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 40S TO THE LOW 50S.
AS THE WARM FRONT GETS CLOSER SATURDAY NIGHT IT WILL BRING ABOUT AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST. IT WILL BE MILDER ON
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 30S. SUNDAY WILL BE MOSTLY
CLOUDY WITH A POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST
OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. HIGHS WILL BE FROM THE MID 40S TO THE LOWER
50S...ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1245 PM EST...LIGHT RAIN HAS DEVELOPED AT KALB...WHILE
REMAINING GENERALLY NORTH OF KPOU...AND THUS FAR...SOUTH OF KGFL.
HOWEVER...THE RAIN SHOULD EXPAND NORTH AND EAST DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN AFFECTING KALB AND
KGFL THROUGH SUNSET. DESPITE THIS LIGHT RAIN...EXPECT MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS...POSSIBLY BECOMING MVFR FOR CIGS TOWARD SUNSET. AT
KPOU...OTHER THAN PERHAPS A FEW SPRINKLES...EXPECT MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNSET.
FOR TONIGHT...THE RAIN SHOULD BECOME MORE SHOWERY AT KALB AND
KGFL...AS A WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. THEN...AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NW...EXPECT A BAND OF SHOWERS TO GRADUALLY
SETTLE SOUTHEAST ACROSS KGFL AND KALB ONCE AGAIN LATER THIS
EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A RUMBLE OF THUNDER COULD BE
EMBEDDED WITHIN THESE SHOWERS...BUT DUE TO OVERALL LOW
PROBABILITY...HAVE KEPT OUT ANY MENTION AT THIS TIME. EXPECT MVFR
TO ISOLATED IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.
THE SHOWERS SHOULD THEN SETTLE SOUTHWARD AFTER MIDNIGHT...TAPERING
OFF AT KGFL AND KALB BEFORE SUNRISE. AT KPOU...LITTLE IF ANY RAIN
IS EXPECTED UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING...WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AS THE
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. ALL AREAS SHOULD THEN TREND INTO VFR BY
MID TO LATE MORNING TUE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...IFR/MVFR IMPROVING TO VFR BY AFTERNOON.
TUE NGT...SUB-VFR CIG...LIKELY -SHRA.
WED-WED NGT...VFR/MVFR...CHC -SHRA.
THU...VFR...BREEZY.
FRI-SAT...VFR...NO SIG WX.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK.
UP TO A HALF INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
THIS RAIN MIGHT CAUSE SOME MINOR INCREASES IN STREAMFLOWS...BUT
MOST OF IT WILL JUST SOAK INTO THE GROUND.
MORE RAINFALL MAY OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...BUT AGAIN IT LOOKS LIKE
AMOUNTS SHOULD NOT BE MUCH MORE THAN A HALF INCH...IF THAT MUCH.
AGAIN THIS RAIN WILL MOSTLY JUST SOAK INTO THE GROUND...AND NOT
HAVE MUCH EFFECT ON THE RIVERS AND STREAMS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...11
NEAR TERM...KL/11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...RCK
AVIATION...KL/RCK
HYDROLOGY...RCK/11
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
553 PM EST MON NOV 14 2011
.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS...LINGERING SHOWERS AFFECTING KFWA SHOULD EXIT BEFORE 00Z
WITH LOW LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTION AFFECTING NORTHERN INDIANA
TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF PASSING SFC WAVE. WEAK NORTH WINDS BEHIND
THIS TROUGH SHOULD EVENTUALLY BECOME SOUTHERLY LATER THIS EVENING
AS SFC TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE TONIGHT.
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS APPROACHING TROUGH
ON TUESDAY...WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS
POSSIBLE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT KSBN WHERE LOW
LEVEL HEIGHT GRADIENT WILL BE STRONGER. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH JUST SOME LOW COVERAGE CIRRUS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 425 PM EST MON NOV 14 2011/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
SEVERE POTENTIAL THROUGH EARLY EVENING WILL BE THE IMMEDIATE SHORT
TERM CONCERN...FOLLOWED BY TRANSITION TO COLDER TEMPERATURES AND
LAKE EFFECT PRECIP POTENTIAL FOR WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY.
SHORT WAVE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS HAS RAPIDLY TRACKED INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SFC WAVE RIDING
ALONG NORTHWARD MOVING WARM FRONT COMBINED WITH INCREASED
MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING HAS ALLOWED FOR SOLID LINE OF CONVECTION
TO DEVELOP ALONG A STRONG LOW LEVEL FRONTAL CONVERGENCE ZONE.
EXTREME DEEP LAYER SHEAR NOTED WITH 150 KNOT JET CORE PROGRESSING
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES...WITH 0 TO 6 KM DEEP LAYER SHEAR
VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 80 TO 100 KNOTS. A TIGHT INSTABILITY
GRADIENT IS ACCOMPANYING THE WARM FRONT WITH 20Z SPC RUC ANALYSIS
INDICATING BETWEEN 500-700 J/KG OF SFC BASED CAPE ACROSS SOUTHERN
THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE WARM FRONT HAS LIKELY REACHED ITS
FAR NORTHERN EXTENT BASED ON POSITIONING OF AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE
WAVE. SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS CAN BE APPROXIMATELY DELINEATED BY CURRENT POSITIONING OF SHARP
FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AXIS. COMBINATION OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY IS
MORE THAN AMPLE FOR CONTINUED LOW TOP SUPERCELLULAR FEATURES
EMBEDDED ALONG THE LINE...WITH PERIODIC BOWING SEGMENTS GIVEN THE
VERY STRONG FLOW ALOFT. THREAT OF SEVERE SHOULD SHIFT INTO EXTREME
SOUTHEAST AREAS OVER NEXT HOUR OR TWO...BEFORE EXITING THE
FORECAST AREA TOWARD 00Z.
COLD ADVECTION BEHIND SURFACE WAVE TONIGHT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
PARTICULARLY STRONG DUE TO MAINTENANCE OF LONG WAVE TROUGHING
ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL CONUS. APPROACH OF NEXT SFC TROUGH FROM THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS WILL ALLOW LOW LEVEL WINDS TO BACK AGAIN
LATE TONIGHT AND ON TUESDAY...WITH STRONG WARM ADVECTION
DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN DURING THE DAY. SOME LIMITED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURN IS POSSIBLE IN ADVANCE OF THIS WAVE TUESDAY NIGHT
ACROSS MAINLY FAR SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA. IN
ADDITION...APPROACHING LARGER SCALE UPPER TROUGH MAY ACT TO
ENHANCE SOME WEAK TO MODERATE MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. GIVEN THESE
FACTORS...DID ADD SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS EXTREME
SOUTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH GREATER CHANCES OF SHOWERS
REMAINING SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE UPPER
50S TO AROUND 60 EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH JUST SOME
PASSING MID CLOUDS EXPECTED.
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG LOW LEVEL
COLD ADVECTION ON WEDNESDAY. MODIFIED GFS BUFFER SOUNDINGS FOR
SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN CONDITIONS SUGGEST SUFFICIENT LAKE INDUCED
INSTABILITY FOR SCT SNOW SHOWER/FLURRY CHANCES. WILL KEEP PRECIP
TYPE AS SNOW SHOWERS FOR MAINLY EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN LOWER
MICHIGAN DUE TO A FAIRLY DRY SUBCLOUD LAYER. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FURTHER INLAND ON WEDNESDAY EVENING ACROSS MUCH
OF SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AS MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES. THE THERMAL ROLLER COASTER RIDE WILL CONTINUE BY
THE END OF THE WEEK AS A STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL
BRING LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGING BACK INTO THE REGION AND A
MODERATING TEMPERATURE TREND. THE NEXT STRONG EASTERN PACIFIC JET
WILL DIG INTO WESTERN CONUS FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR LONGWAVE
AMPLIFICATION...WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY SUPPORT RAIN SHOWER CHANCES
FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEKEND AS THIS TROUGH LIFTS ACROSS NORTHERN TIER
OF CONUS.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...MARSILI
AVIATION...MARSILI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
425 PM EST MON NOV 14 2011
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
SEVERE POTENTIAL THROUGH EARLY EVENING WILL BE THE IMMEDIATE SHORT
TERM CONCERN...FOLLOWED BY TRANSITION TO COLDER TEMPERATURES AND
LAKE EFFECT PRECIP POTENTIAL FOR WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY.
SHORT WAVE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS HAS RAPIDLY TRACKED INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SFC WAVE RIDING
ALONG NORTHWARD MOVING WARM FRONT COMBINED WITH INCREASED
MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING HAS ALLOWED FOR SOLID LINE OF CONVECTION
TO DEVELOP ALONG A STRONG LOW LEVEL FRONTAL CONVERGENCE ZONE.
EXTREME DEEP LAYER SHEAR NOTED WITH 150 KNOT JET CORE PROGRESSING
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES...WITH 0 TO 6 KM DEEP LAYER SHEAR
VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 80 TO 100 KNOTS. A TIGHT INSTABILITY
GRADIENT IS ACCOMPANYING THE WARM FRONT WITH 20Z SPC RUC ANALYSIS
INDICATING BETWEEN 500-700 J/KG OF SFC BASED CAPE ACROSS SOUTHERN
THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE WARM FRONT HAS LIKELY REACHED ITS
FAR NORTHERN EXTENT BASED ON POSITIONING OF AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE
WAVE. SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS CAN BE APPROXIMATELY DELINEATED BY CURRENT POSITIONING OF SHARP
FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AXIS. COMBINATION OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY IS
MORE THAN AMPLE FOR CONTINUED LOW TOP SUPERCELLULAR FEATURES
EMBEDDED ALONG THE LINE...WITH PERIODIC BOWING SEGMENTS GIVEN THE
VERY STRONG FLOW ALOFT. THREAT OF SEVERE SHOULD SHIFT INTO EXTREME
SOUTHEAST AREAS OVER NEXT HOUR OR TWO...BEFORE EXITING THE
FORECAST AREA TOWARD 00Z.
COLD ADVECTION BEHIND SURFACE WAVE TONIGHT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
PARTICULARLY STRONG DUE TO MAINTENANCE OF LONG WAVE TROUGHING
ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL CONUS. APPROACH OF NEXT SFC TROUGH FROM THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS WILL ALLOW LOW LEVEL WINDS TO BACK AGAIN
LATE TONIGHT AND ON TUESDAY...WITH STRONG WARM ADVECTION
DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN DURING THE DAY. SOME LIMITED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURN IS POSSIBLE IN ADVANCE OF THIS WAVE TUESDAY NIGHT
ACROSS MAINLY FAR SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA. IN
ADDITION...APPROACHING LARGER SCALE UPPER TROUGH MAY ACT TO
ENHANCE SOME WEAK TO MODERATE MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. GIVEN THESE
FACTORS...DID ADD SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS EXTREME
SOUTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH GREATER CHANCES OF SHOWERS
REMAINING SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE UPPER
50S TO AROUND 60 EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH JUST SOME
PASSING MID CLOUDS EXPECTED.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG LOW LEVEL
COLD ADVECTION ON WEDNESDAY. MODIFIED GFS BUFFER SOUNDINGS FOR
SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN CONDITIONS SUGGEST SUFFICIENT LAKE INDUCED
INSTABILITY FOR SCT SNOW SHOWER/FLURRY CHANCES. WILL KEEP PRECIP
TYPE AS SNOW SHOWERS FOR MAINLY EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN LOWER
MICHIGAN DUE TO A FAIRLY DRY SUBCLOUD LAYER. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FURTHER INLAND ON WEDNESDAY EVENING ACROSS MUCH
OF SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AS MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES. THE THERMAL ROLLER COASTER RIDE WILL CONTINUE BY
THE END OF THE WEEK AS A STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL
BRING LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGING BACK INTO THE REGION AND A
MODERATING TEMPERATURE TREND. THE NEXT STRONG EASTERN PACIFIC JET
WILL DIG INTO WESTERN CONUS FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR LONGWAVE
AMPLIFICATION...WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY SUPPORT RAIN SHOWER CHANCES
FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEKEND AS THIS TROUGH LIFTS ACROSS NORTHERN TIER
OF CONUS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 126 PM EST MON NOV 14 2011/
AVIATION...
18Z TAFS...WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST TO THE SOUTH OF TERMINALS
WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON. LATEST SFC OBSERVATIONS INDICATING WARM FRONT HAS
REACHED KFWA WITH WINDS NOW SOUTHERLY AND GUSTING TO AROUND 20
KNOTS. THIS SHARP FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL INTERACT WITH AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON. THE PRIMARY
INSTABILITY AXIS WILL SET UP FROM EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO
NORTHEAST INDIANA WITH KFWA MARKING THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THIS
GREATER INSTABILITY. WHILE THUNDER MAY BE MORE ISOLD OR SCT AT
KSBN...BEST POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER AT KSBN SHOULD BE OVER THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO. WITH STRONG BACKGROUND WIND SHEAR AND PLACEMENT OF
INSTABILITY...STORMS WILL LIKELY BE STRONG/SEVERE AND DID
INDICATE WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 50 KNOTS IN TEMPO TSRA GROUP FOR FWA.
THREAT OF PRECIP SHOULD END AT EARLY THIS EVENING AS COLD FRONT
TRACKS EASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA. CONFIDENCE IN WINDS DIMINISHES
LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH UNCERTAINTY AS TO EXACT PLACEMENT OF WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...BUT WINDS SHOULD EVENTUALLY FAVOR SOUTHWEST
LATER TONIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...MARSILI
AVIATION...MARSILI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS PADUCAH KY
1214 PM CST MON NOV 14 2011
.UPDATE...
SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/ FORECAST UPDATE AND 18Z MONDAY ROUTINE
TAF ISSUANCE DISCUSSION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
THE CURRENT SEVERE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY CLOSELY MATCHES THE 4KM
NAM-WRF NMM REFLECTIVITY FIELDS...AS OF 18Z MONDAY. AT THIS
TIME...ADJUSTED POP/WEATHER FIELDS TO REFLECT HIGHER CHANCES FOR
SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND
INTO SOUTHWEST INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE SHARP SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND DOWNWARD MIXING OF LOW LEVEL WINDS...A
MENTION OF GUSTY WINDS WAS ADDED TO THE ZONE OF THE HIGHEST POPS
OVER THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR OVER SOUTHEAST IL/SOUTHWEST
INDIANA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN WORKING SOUTHWEST INTO PARTS
OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS.
THE 13KM RUC AND 12KM NAM-WRF GUIDANCE STILL SUGGEST THAT ANY
SIGNIFICANT /SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL/ THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD
DEVELOP INTO PARTS OF SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS FROM 18Z-20Z...WORKING
ACROSS SOUTHWEST INDIANA IN THE 19Z-21Z TIME FRAME. THERE ARE ALSO
SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BECOME
FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO LIGHT UP FURTHER SOUTHWEST
INTO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI IN THE 22Z-01Z TIME FRAME...SO RAISED
POP/WEATHER ACROSS THIS AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
/PREVIOUSLY ISSUED AT 236 AM CST MON NOV 14 2011/
BIGGEST CHALLENGES WITH THIS PACKAGE CONTINUE TO BE POPS AND QPF
FROM TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN PRECIP CHANCES LATE IN
THE PERIOD.
A SURFACE LOW WILL SCOOT BY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF OUR CWA TODAY.
SIMILAR TO SUNDAY...THIS WILL CAUSE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO
TIGHTEN BETWEEN THE LOW AND AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
THE SOUTHEAST US. THE BOTTOM LINE WILL BE ANOTHER GUSTY DAY OUT OF
THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST...BUT TODAY WIND SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS.
THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE
INTO OUR CWA AND BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF
OUR CWA BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE PRESENCE OF THE FRONT COMBINED
WITH DEEPENING MOISTURE AND WEAK IMPULSES OF ENERGY ALOFT WILL
INCREASE PRECIP CHANCES TODAY INTO TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA TONIGHT. EVEN THOUGH INSTABILITY IS
MODEST AT BEST...DEEP LAYER SHEAR...ESPECIALLY EAST OF A LINE
FROM PINCKNEYVILLE ILLINOIS TO HICKMAN KENTUCKY...COULD CAUSE A
FEW STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE MAIN THREAT
BEING DAMAGING WINDS BUT ALSO WITH A REMOTE CHANCE FOR ISOLATED
TORNADOES...MAINLY OVER SOUTHWEST INDIANA.
TUESDAY AS A SHARP H5 TROF LIFTS NORTHEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...IT WILL SERVE TO LIFT THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT AND
MOISTURE FIELDS SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH...BUT THE HIGHEST POPS AND
QPF ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE
CWA. THIS SCENARIO IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
PRECIP WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
STORM SYSTEM FINALLY PULLS OFF TO THE EAST. STORM TOTAL PRECIP AT
THIS TIME IS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM .25-.50 INCHES OVER THE
NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE CWA TO 2.75-3.0 INCHES OVER THE
SOUTHEAST SECTIONS. MODELS HAVE BECOME MORE CONSISTENT HANDLING
THE TRACK...TIMING...AND DURATION OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT THE
SLIGHTEST SHIFT OF THE BOUNDARY OR ANY OF THE OTHER PRIMARY
SYNOPTIC PARAMETERS COULD SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT THE OUTCOME.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP THE REGION
DRY AND COOLER THROUGH SATURDAY. BEYOND THAT THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OUT OF THE PLAINS AND INTERACT WITH AVAILABLE
MOISTURE PRODUCING PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST
CYCLE.
&&
.AVIATION...
CURRENT 18Z TAF ISSUANCE SLIGHTLY DELAYED DUE TO SEVERE WEATHER
PREPARATIONS. THE 12Z MONDAY TAF FORECAST ISSUANCE INITIALIZED
FAIRLY WELL WITH WINDS AND CEILINGS...SO DID NOT MAKE ANY
MEASURABLE CHANGES TO ONGOING FORECAST. THE MAIN ADJUSTMENT WAS
MADE AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE WFO PAH TAF SITES THIS
EVENING AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE KCGI TAF SITE WAS DISPLACED
A LITTLE FARTHER AWAY FROM THE FRONTAL BOUNDAY...SO INTRODUCED
MVFR VISIBILITIES/CEILINGS IN THE 11Z-14Z TUESDAY TIME FRAME. THE
WORST CONDITIONS...LIFR CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL LIKELY
HOLD NEAR KPAH...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER IFR CEILINGS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AT KEVV AND KOWB. THE LOWER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL
LIKELY LAST INTO THE 18Z TUESDAY AND 00Z WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME FOR
THE NEXT FORECAST ISSUANCE.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION/NEAR TERM...SMITH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
515 PM EST MON NOV 14 2011
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH A FRONT
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL AROUND
OR JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE MARYLAND BORDER. ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL ROLL ALONG THE FRONT BUT TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY. THE UNSEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK TO
NORMALS LATER THIS WEEK AS A NOTICEABLY COLDER AIR MASS SETTLES
IN.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC LOW TRACKING NE OVR LK ERIE THIS EVENING. LL JET TRANSPORTING
INCREASINGLY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR INTO NW PA SETTING THE STAGE FOR A
ROUND OF TSRA LATER THIS EVENING AS TRAILING COLD FRONT ARRIVES
OVR THE NW MTNS. MDL SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY INDICATES LINE OF TSRA
WILL ARRIVE OVR WARREN COUNTY ARND 00Z. LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS
INDICATE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE NW
MTNS...COMBINED WITH PLENTY OF SHEAR...TO PRODUCE A SVR WX
POTENTIAL THRU ARND MIDNIGHT. LATEST MDL DATA INDICATES MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PA WILL REMAIN DRY THIS EVENING...SO HAVE
REMOVED MENTION OF PRECIP.
&&
.SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
FRONT PROGRESSES SOUTHWARD TONIGHT...AND WILL HOLD ONTO MENTIONS
OF THUNDER FOR THE EARLY NIGHTTIME IN THE WEST. GUSTY WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH DEEP-ER CONVECTION. EXPECT ANY STORMS TO BE
SHORT...BUT SVR WINDS NOT MORE THAN 3KFT OFF THE DECK EARLY
TONIGHT. DRY IS THE WORD FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE PD IN THE
SOUTH...AND MOISTURE AND FORCING BOTH DECREASE TONIGHT AS THE
FRONT DIPS THROUGH THE AREA. SFC WINDS GO LIGHT AND AMBIENT
MOISTURE COULD CREATE PATCHY FOG BUT NOT BAD/WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO
MENTION IN THE GRIDS. FRONT LOSES GOOD/VISIBLE WIND SHIFT AND
LITTLE P-GRAD FOUND LATER TONIGHT AND TUES AM. THUS...IT MAY BE
TOUGH TO PINPOINT WHERE THE HIGHER CHCS FOR PRECIP WILL BE
TUES...BUT WILL BEND TOWARD THE SREF MEAN PRECIP FIELDS AND PAINT
HIGHEST NUMBERS IN THE LAURELS WHERE UPSLOPE SHOULD HELP SQUEEZE
SOME MOISTURE OUT...BUT DOWNSLOPE AND MORE-DISTANCE FROM THE
WEAK MOISTURE FEED WILL MAKE IT A TOUGH FCST FOR PRECIP /NO OR
YES/ IN THE LOWER SUSQ. HAVE KEPT HIGH POPS IN FOR THE DAYTIME BUT
EXPECT QPF TO BE LOW LIKE TODAY/MONDAY HAS BEEN IN THE N. LOTS OF
RADAR ECHOES LIKELY...BUT ONLY MINOR ACCUMS. MEAGER POS CAPES
LATER TONIGHT AND TUES...BUT STABILITY INCREASES RATHER QUICKLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND LASTS THRU ALL OF TUES. MAXES ON TUES WILL BE
MILD AGAIN...BUT NOT AS TOASTY AS TODAY IN THE SOUTH WHERE THE
CLOUDS WILL BE THICKEST. ALMOST UNIFORM 55-60F MAXES ARE EXPECTED.
THESE ARE STILL 5-10F ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO DOMINATE THE EASTERN
US THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY AND THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION ON
WEDNESDAY. THE PERIOD WILL START WET WITH RAINS ALONG THE FRONT THEN
TURN DRY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT.
IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT...IT WILL TURN MUCH COLDER LATER
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...WITH 850 HPA TEMPERATURES DIPPING TO
ABOUT 1 SD BELOW NORMAL. THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF A BROAD AREA OF
STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL MOVE ACROSS NW AND NORTH
CENTRAL PENN WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY LEADING TO NUMEROUS SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NW MTNS...WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS FURTHER
SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU.
850 HPA TEMPS ARE -6C BY WED NIGHT AND FALL FARTHER TO -8C...WITH A
TROUGH OF VERY COLD 700 MB TEMPS NEAR -20C SLIDING ACROSS NRN PENN
ON THURSDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW SHOWER THREAT...THE WINDS
SHOULD PICK UP...PUSHING THE WIND CHILLS THROUGH THE 20S...AND INTO
THE TEENS LATE THURSDAY AND THUR NIGHT.
SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IMPLIES 1-3
INCHES OF SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PERENNIAL SNOWBELT
NEAR...AND TO THE WEST OF KBFD...WITH AN INCH OR LESS ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTH AND WEST.
FOR THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA...PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
WILL OCCUR IN THE WAKE OF THE CFRONT...WITH NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION.
TEMPERATURES MODERATE BACK TOWARD NORMAL THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...THAT PESKY RIDGE IN THE SOUTHEAST AND OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WILL LIMIT THE SOUTHWARD PENETRATION OF THE FRONT.
THE PW VALUES DROP BELOW NORMAL LATE WED AND STAY NORMAL
OR BELOW NORMAL FROM THU-SUNDAY. THIS PERIOD SHOULD BE UNSEASONABLY
DRY. WILL CONTINUE WITH BELOW NORMAL POPS FOR ALL OF THE REGION
DURING THE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY PERIOD.
AS THE TROUGH BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN US LATER THIS WEEK...THE
SOUTHEASTERN RIDGE SHOULD PUSH WARMER AIR INTO OUR REGION SATURDAY.
THE 850 HPA TEMPERATURES ARE PREDICTED TO BE 1SD ABOVE NORMAL LATE
SATURDAY ACROSS THE NW PART OF THE STATE...AND AREA-WIDE ON SUNDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES WITH THE NEXT CHC FOR SHOWERS LATER
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TAFS UPDATED AT 21Z FOR CURRENT ACTIVITY. FOR THE TIME BEING...
CONVECTION N OF PA. WILL KEEP THIS SHORT AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE RADAR ETC.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
STABILITY MAY DIP ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ISOLD TSRA LATE THIS
AFTN/EARLY EVENING IN THE WEST...BUT WILL ONLY KEEP A MENTION OF
CB IN THOSE TAFS FOR NOW. CONFIDENCE OF THUNDER AT ANY POINT
ALMOST NIL. PER LATEST MESO MDLS AND RADAR TRENDS...THE CURR AREA
OF SHOWERS SHOULD LIFT OUT BY 22Z...AND A BREAK MAY OCCUR BEFORE A
LINE OF STORMS COULD FORM ALONG THE FRONT VCTY OF LK ERIE. STRONG
WINDS OF 40-50KT JUST 2-3KT ALOFT WILL MAKE LLWS AND MECH
TURBULENCE THE GREATEST THREATS TO AVIATION THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. BUT THESE WINDS MAY ALSO MIX DOWN IF ANY CONVECTION CAN
DEVELOP AND GET DEEP ENOUGH. THE LINE OF STORMS WOULD MOST LIKELY
BE ON THE FRONT AS IT PRESSES SOUTHWARD. VFR TO MVFR CONDS SHOULD
PREVAIL FOR THE MOST PART WITH POST-FNTL IFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT BFD
AFT 06Z...THEN KJST AFTER 09Z. LINGERING RAIN ON TUESDAY WILL
PROBABLY KEEP THE CIGS AND VSBY IN MVFR FOR MOST SITES. KBFD MIGHT
BE THE NICEST LOCATION. WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10KTS TUES AND THE
STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL ALSO SLACK OFF TO ONLY 30KT OR SO AT 2KFT.
WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY LLWS FOR ALL SITES FOR MOST OF THE TAF
VALID PD THOUGH.
OUTLOOK...
TUES NIGHT-WED...MVFR TO IFR IN PDS OF RAIN...ESP SOUTH.
THU...MVFR TO IFR CIGS WEST WITH -SHSN. VFR TO MVFR EAST.
FRI-SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...DANGELO/FITZGERALD/MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NWS RAPID CITY SD
1031 AM MST MON NOV 14 2011
.UPDATE...LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE
REGION WITH ISOLATED -SHRASN IN A NARROW BAND FROM SOUTHEASTERN
MONTANA TO NEAR PIERRE IN CENTARL SD. EXPECT LAPSE RATES TO
STEEPEN AGAIN DUE TO DIURNAL HEATING...WHICH WILL INCREASE THE
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION...18Z TAF FCST
ISOLD/SCT SHSN OR SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD OVER NERN WY AND WRN SD. BRIEF PERIODS OF LCL IFR VIS WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHSN. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 AM MST MON NOV 14 2011/
DISCUSSION...09Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE
CWA. REGIONAL RADAR LOOPS HAD ISOLATED -SHSN FROM MT INTO SD IN A
REGIME DOMINATED BY VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES...SEE 00Z KUNR
SOUNDING...AND A BIT OF MLCAPE PER LATEST RUC ANALYSIS. WATER
VAPOUR HAD MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL NORTH AMERICAN WITH
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO WESTERN CANADA.
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...DIRTY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH CONTINUE
WITH VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES FROM 850-600MB. MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED. HOWEVER...A PARADE OF SHORTWAVES WITH RATHER COLD 500MB
AIR WILL TRAVERSE THE CWA. SHOULD SEE ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. A COLDER PUSH OF AIR DROPS IN
TONIGHT WITH THE BEST 850-700MB FRONTOGENESIS. 850MB WINDS WILL
BE 20-35KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD AND THAT COMBINED WITH DEEP MIXING
WILL SUPPORT WINDY/GUSTY WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS. PRECIPITATION TYPE
SHOULD LEAN STRONGLY TOWARD -SHSN TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT GIVEN
LOWER TROPOSPHERIC THERMAL PROFILES. CHILLY DAY EXPECTED TUESDAY.
WEDNESDAY...UPPER FLOW SLOWLY BECOME LESS CYCLONIC WITH UPPER
RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE ROCKIES. STILL COLD THOUGH GIVEN 850-700MB
TEMPERATURES.
EXTENDED...UPPER RIDGE SLIDES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
THURSDAY...WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
STRONG UPPER TROF PUSHES THROUGH THE WEST COAST FRIDAY...WITH UPPER
FLOW SHIFTING SOUTHWEST OVER OUR AREA. WEAK ENERGY WILL EJECT OVER
THE AREA AHEAD OF THE TROF AS IT SLOWLY APPROACHES...BRINGING
CHANCES FOR PRECIP LATE FRIDAY. BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL OCCUR
OVER THE WEEKEND AS UPPER TROF SLIDES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO BELOW AVERAGE FROM FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
958 AM MST MON NOV 14 2011
.UPDATE...STRONG DOWNSLOPING WINDS OFF THE LARAMIE RANGE HAS
CAUSED DEWPOINTS TO REALLY BEGIN TO DRY OUT THIS MORNING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. LATEST HRRR FORECAST SHOWING TDS DROPPING
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS OUT THAT WAY THIS AFTERNOON WITH AFTERNOON
MIN HUMIDITIES DROPPING INTO THE LOW TEENS. WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED
A RED FLAG WARNING FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 313 IN THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LOW HUMIDITIES AND STRONG WINDS.
UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.
CLAYCOMB
&&
AVIATION...18Z TAFS.
VFR OVER ALL TERMINALS THROUGH TUESDAY BUT SOME HIGHER MTN
OBSCURATIONS EXPECTED. STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED OVER
MAINLY SE WY TERMINALS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON THEN EASING SOME
THIS EVENING.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM MST MON NOV 14 2011/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A BROAD UPPER TROUGH ENCOMPASSING MUCH
OF THE CONUS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING EAST ACROSS WESTERN
COLORADO AND ANOTHER THROUGH THE DAKOTAS. THE REGIONAL SURFACE
ANALYSIS DEPICTED A COLD FRONT FROM A LOW NORTHEAST OF FARGO
SOUTHWESTWARD INTO WEST CENTRAL NEBRASKA. HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILED
OVER SOUTHERN WYOMING AND NORTHERN COLORADO. WESTERLY SURFACE
WINDS WERE GUSTING BETWEEN 35 AND 55 MPH OVER MUCH OF SOUTHEAST
WYOMING COURTESY OF A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND 50-60 KT 700 MB
WINDS. TEMPERATURES AT 3 AM WERE IN THE 20S AND 30S.
THE 00Z SHORT RANGE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE OUTPUT REVEALED GOOD
RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY. IT MAINTAINS THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS
MUCH OF NORTH AMERICA DURING THE SHORT TERM...WITH THE NORTH TO SOUTH
AXIS OVER THE GREAT PLAINS. THIS PATTERN WILL PROVIDE A FAST NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES. ONE WAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST
FROM MONTANA INTO NORTHERN AND EASTERN WYOMING TONIGHT AND THE DAKOTAS
ON TUESDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED... BUT DYNAMICS AND STEEP LAPSE
RATES WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES
TONIGHT FOR AREAS NORTH OF A LINE FROM DOUGLAS TO CHADRON. WILL SEE
A RETURN OF SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MOUNTAIN
RANGES TONIGHT AND LASTING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT DUE TO NORTHWEST FLOW...
WEAK INSTABILITY AND OROGRAPHICS. TODAY/S CONCERN WILL BE THE STRONG
WESTERLY WINDS AS 700 MB WINDS RANGE FROM 50 TO 60 KT ACROSS SOUTHEAST
WYOMING...RESULTING IN SURFACE WIND GUSTS OF 55 TO 70 MPH ALONG THE
INTERSTATE 80 AND 25 WIND CORRIDORS. THE HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS
IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM MST FOR THESE AREAS. FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE
WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...SUSTAINED WINDS TODAY WILL BE CLOSE
TO ADVISORY CRITERIA AT 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH. THE
WINDS WILL SLOWLY START TO DIMINISH TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BEGINS TO RELAX A BIT. GUSTS OF 45 TO 55 MPH ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WYOMING TONIGHT. THE DECREASING WIND TREND WILL CONTINUE
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS WINDS ALOFT WEAKEN AND PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES FURTHER. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL REMAIN 5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL WITH UPPER 40S AND 50S. THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO AFFECT
THE CWA WILL PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH MONTANA AND NORTH DAKOTA LATER
TODAY...CENTRAL WYOMING AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA TONIGHT...AND EASTERN
COLORADO AND CENTRAL KANSAS TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST
OF THE LARAMIE RANGE IN THE POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN WYOMING AND THE DAKOTAS
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING FROM THE NORTHERN
LARAMIE RANGE EAST INTO THE NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. THE FLOW
ALOFT WEDNESDAY BECOMES LESS CYCLONIC WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE EAST AND WEAK RIDGING UPSTREAM. A SURFACE
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION...PROMOTING DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN
TUESDAY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT.
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
14/00Z NAM...GFS AND ECMWF SIMILAR WITH THEIR 500 MB SYNOPTIC
PATTERNS...THUS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THEIR RESPECTIVE MODEL SOLUTIONS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY...FLOW ALOFT BACKS TO ZONAL...WEST TO EAST...
THUS INDUCING A DECENT WARMING TREND AS SURFACE LEE TROUGHING BECOMES
WELL ESTABLISHED FROM EASTERN MONTANA THROUGH EASTERN WYOMING TO
EASTERN COLORADO. DRY WITH LACK OF LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE.
BREEZY TO WINDY WITH PROGGED UNIDIRECTIONAL SURFACE THROUGH 700 MB
GRADIENTS. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES 40S WEST AND 50S EAST WITH 1000-500
MB THICKNESSES NEAR 5520 METERS.
FRIDAY...FLOW ALOFT BACKS EVEN FURTHER TO SOUTHWEST IN ADVANCE OF
APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE GREAT BASIN STATES. GFS HINTS AT A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ENTERING OUR NORTHEAST COUNTIES FROM DOUGLAS TO
KIMBALL...THOUGH STILL TOO EARLY TO TELL WHERE THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL END UP. ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION WILL FALL OVER
WESTERN WYOMING...WILL MESH WITH OUR RIVERTON NEIGHBORS TO THE WEST
AND INCLUDE SOME LOW CHANCE POPS WEST OF A DOUGLAS TO LARAMIE LINE
WITH DEEPENING LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE LIFTED BY OROGRAPHICS AND
DYNAMICS.
SATURDAY...INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES ACROSS WYOMING
SPREADING SNOWFALL ACROSS OUR COUNTIES AND BRINGING IN A COLDER
AIRMASS IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.
SUNDAY...UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES WITH LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGHING
ACROSS MONTANA AND WYOMING AND MOIST WEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS WYOMING
PRODUCING OROGRAPHIC SNOWS ACROSS OUR SIERRA MADRE AND SNOWY RANGES
WITH MOSTLY DRY WEATHER ELSEWHERE.
FIRE WEATHER...
STRONG WINDS ALOFT AND A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO
GENERATE WINDY CONDITIONS TODAY. WINDS WILL GUST FROM 55 TO 70 MPH
ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING...AND 30 TO 40 MPH FOR THE WESTERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE. THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
WITH THE RELAXING GRADIENT. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TODAY WILL
RANGE BETWEEN 25 AND 35 PERCENT EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...AND 30
TO 40 PERCENT TUESDAY.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY FOR WYZ103-WYZ104-WYZ105-
WYZ106-WYZ109-WYZ110-WYZ113-WYZ115-WYZ116-WYZ117-WYZ118.
NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MONDAY FOR NEZ019-NEZ020-NEZ021-
NEZ054-NEZ055.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JAMSKI
LONG TERM/AVIATION...RUBIN