Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 11/13/11
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
526 PM CST SAT NOV 12 2011
...AVIATION UPDATE...
.DISCUSSION...
SEE PREV DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...
DRY AIR AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE SHOULD PREVENT ANY WEATHER AND
MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS. BIGGEST CONCERN WILL BE WITH LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES ABOVE THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION.
THIS STRONG LOW LEVEL JET OF 50KTS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST NORTHWEST
AS THE UPPER WAVE PASSES OVERHEAD.
WOLTERS
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /246 PM CST SAT NOV 12 2011/
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...20Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS
MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF U.S. EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
W-SW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH HAS
SPAWNED INCREASING CLOUD COVER OVER THE CENTRAL MISSOURI AND
NORTHERN ARKANSAS. ALTHOUGH THE WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS MOVED OVER
NORTHEAST KANSAS DRY AIR OVER THE AREA HAS PREVENTED MUCH IN THE WAY
OF CLOUD FORMATION. THUS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
REST OF THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT. EXPECT THE GUSTY WINDS TO TAPER OFF
OVERNIGHT AS DIURNAL DECOUPLING BEGINS SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY TIGHT OVERNIGHT...SO
EXPECT WESTERLY WINDS TO REMAIN IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE OVERNIGHT.
BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING A FAIRLY SHARP AND
QUICKLY MOVING 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WILL REMAIN RATHER DRY AND THE BEST
LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH. AS A
RESULT OF THOSE FACTORS...DO NOT EXPECT ANY RAIN IN NORTHEAST
KANSAS. BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING THE SURFACE LOW SITUATED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER WILL MOVE TO THE EAST...BRINGING WEST-NORTHWEST
SURFACE FLOW TO NORTHEAST KANSAS ON SUNDAY. WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION
BEHIND THE COOL FRONT WILL KEEP TEMPS ON SUNDAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S WITH INCREASING W-NW WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH.
JL
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...A BROAD LONGER WAVE LENGTH UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS. SHORTER WAVE
LENGTH UPPER TROUGHS WILL DIG SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND
LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE MIDWEST. THE DEEPER 850MB MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA...THUS THE LOW-LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY. THERE MAY ENOUGH ASCENT
AHEAD OF AN H5 TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN KS SUNDAY
NIGHT FOR AN INCREASE IN HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLY
SOME SPRINKLES. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE NEAR 60 NORTH OF INTERSTATE
70...WITH LOWER 60S SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70.
TUESDAY...AS THE LONGER WAVE LENGTH H5 TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF
THE PLAINS A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CWA
TUESDAY MORNING. HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 40S ALONG THE NE
BORDER WITH MID 50S POSSIBLE SOUTH OF I-35...THOUGH HIGHS MAY BE
COOLER IF FROPA OCCURS EARLIER ON TUESDAY MORNING. A SFC RIDGE WILL
BUILD SOUTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN KS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOUR. SKIES
WILL BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY.
GARGAN
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BE THE STORY
FOR MOST OF THE WORK WEEK WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES NEAR
NORMAL. DROPPED TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREE BELOW GUIDANCE ON
WEDNESDAY WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES IN THE -5 TO -7 CELSIUS
RANGE...LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS ...CLEAR SKIES AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. ON THURSDAY WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND
TO THE SOUTH AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM LATE THURSDAY
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AS LEE CYCLOGENESIS TAKES
PLACE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL PUSH BACK UP INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE
CWA ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW. BOTH THE 12Z
GFS AND ECMWF ARE INDICATING JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ON SATURDAY WITH THE BEST
CHANCES ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. AT THIS TIME HAVE
MENTIONED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
ADVERTISING ENOUGH MOISTURE RETURN FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ON
SATURDAY.
ANDERSON
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
854 PM EST SAT NOV 12 2011
...Forecast Update...
Wind gusts have weakened some with the sun setting, but we are still
seeing some to around 20 knots. These winds are coming from a tight
pressure gradient over the region, as we are between a 986 mb low
now crossing into south central Canada and a 1027 mb high off the
Carolina coast.
Made some tweaks to the cloud cover forecast for the night, based on
the expected clearing from the upper deck, moving into the central
CWA from the west around 06z. Then model time height sections
indicate some broad-scale lift, in association with a low-level jet
now developing over central Missouri, forcing some lower level
clouds to fill in before daybreak Sunday.
With the winds and the separate cloud cover mentioned above, expect
temperatures not to fall too much more than a few more degrees.
Ongoing forecast for looks good, so just made some minor tweaks to
deal with current obs for temps and dewpoints. Updated products are
already out.
&&
.Short Term (Tonight and Sunday)...
...Wind Advisory in effect Sunday...
Expecting gusty winds to diminish over the next few hours although
gradient winds will remain steady overnight, along with a few gusts.
Have had a decent number of ob sites report gusts just over 30 mph
this afternoon.
Strong surface low will move from the northern plains across
western Ontario tonight with surface high pressure anchored over the
southeastern CONUS. Resulting tight pressure gradient over the Ohio
valley will keep sustained southerly surface winds between 10 and 15
mph, increasing to between 15 and 25 mph by dawn on Sunday. A few
gusts will also occur overnight as mechanical mixing from strong
gradient will somewhat limit nocturnal inversion formation. The
steady southerly winds, combined with mid clouds and increasing low
level clouds will result in mild low temperatures in the lower 50s
along and west of I-65. Further east, most locations can expect the
upper 40s with a few possibly decoupled valleys dipping into the mid
40s.
Pressure gradient will strengthen around dawn on Sunday through the
afternoon with sustained south-southwesterly winds between 20 and 30
mph. Frequent gusts will range in the 30 to 40 mph, with the highest
localized gusts around 45 mph. Time heights show vertical theta
surfaces reaching into the bottom of a 60 knot low level jet and
should be able yield a few gusts over 40 mph despite increasing
clouds limiting turbulent mixing. Wind Advisory will be in effect
from 9 am EST to 5 pm EST.
Cold front trailing from above mentioned surface Low will move into
the Wabash Valley by tomorrow evening with limited moisture pooling
ahead of this boundary. Hi res models along with a few of the
operational models show light QPF mainly along and north of the Ohio
River tomorrow. Have scattered sprinkles early Sunday, transitioning
to a 30 percent chance of a light rain shower Sunday afternoon.
Areas south of the the line will remain dry. High temperatures will
warm quite nicely despite the thickening cloud cover with the
mercury reaching the mid and upper 60s in most spots. A few spots in
the Bowling Green region could approach the 70 degree mark.
.Long Term (Sunday night - Saturday)...
Strong surface winds will continue sunday night into Monday, though
these should remain below advisory criteria as the surface pressure
gradient starts to weaken a bit. After more than two days of warm
air and moisture advection from these winds though, the pump will be
primed for showers and even a few thunderstorms to move through in
advance of a slow moving cold front. The chance for showers will
increase along and north of the Ohio River Sunday evening, then work
its way east-southeastward over the CWA and persist through Tuesday
evening. Thanks to the slow progress of this system, along with the
bulk of the upper dynamics remaining over the Great Lakes, whatever
thunderstorms that do occur should be relatively weak, with no
widespread threat of severe weather expected.
High temperatures on Monday will be 5-10 degrees above seasonal
norms, hovering within a few degrees either side of 70. Despite the
increase in precipitation over the area Tuesday, readings will still
reach the lower 60s thanks to the continued southerly wind flow. By
Wednesday, highs will top out in the 50s and remain there for the
remainder of the week.
Overnight lows will see the greatest variation through the week.
After a balmy upper 50s start to the work week and Tuesday morning,
more autumn-like lows in the 30s to lower 40s return by Wednesday,
with some upper 20s in the picture for Thursday morning as clear
skies and High pressure build in behind the cold front.
&&
.Aviation (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Tight pressure gradient remains over the region as we are in between
low pressure moving into south central Canada and a strong high off
the Carolina coast. This gradient should keep a steady southerly
wind across the TAF sites overnight. Winds just above the surface
are forecast to pick up overnight, creating low-level wind shear, as
a broad low-level jet forms over central Missouri. The fringe of
this jet will bring 50-60 kt winds at 2 kft over the TAF sites
overnight. Have timed this strengthening in this set of TAFs based
on a consensus of the NAM, GFS, and SREF.
Models also consistently bring in some lower level clouds after 06z
in time-height sections. HRRR hints at a narrow band of cigs around
3 kft as well. For now have kept in previous forecast for broken
cigs around 4 kft and will monitor for changes once we see these
clouds develop upstream.
By mid morning Sunday, we may still deal with some shear, but expect
winds to gust into the 30-35 kt range for the day, so will leave out
for now. Light showers will move into the KSDF terminal towards the
end of the day and continue overnight.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM EST /8 AM CST/ TO 5 PM EST /4 PM CST/
SUNDAY FOR INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.
KY...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM EST /8 AM CST/ TO 5 PM EST /4 PM CST/
SUNDAY FOR KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-
082.
$$
Update...........RJS
Short Term.......BJS
Long Term........JBS
Aviation.........RJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
629 PM EST SAT NOV 12 2011
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.Short Term (Tonight and Sunday)...
...Wind Advisory in effect Sunday...
Expecting gusty winds to diminish over the next few hours although
gradient winds will remain steady overnight, along with a few gusts.
Have had a decent number of ob sites report gusts just over 30 mph
this afternoon.
Strong surface low will move from the northern plains across
western Ontario tonight with surface high pressure anchored over the
southeastern CONUS. Resulting tight pressure gradient over the Ohio
valley will keep sustained southerly surface winds between 10 and 15
mph, increasing to between 15 and 25 mph by dawn on Sunday. A few
gusts will also occur overnight as mechanical mixing from strong
gradient will somewhat limit nocturnal inversion formation. The
steady southerly winds, combined with mid clouds and increasing low
level clouds will result in mild low temperatures in the lower 50s
along and west of I-65. Further east, most locations can expect the
upper 40s with a few possibly decoupled valleys dipping into the mid
40s.
Pressure gradient will strengthen around dawn on Sunday through the
afternoon with sustained south-southwesterly winds between 20 and 30
mph. Frequent gusts will range in the 30 to 40 mph, with the highest
localized gusts around 45 mph. Time heights show vertical theta
surfaces reaching into the bottom of a 60 knot low level jet and
should be able yield a few gusts over 40 mph despite increasing
clouds limiting turbulent mixing. Wind Advisory will be in effect
from 9 am EST to 5 pm EST.
Cold front trailing from above mentioned surface Low will move into
the Wabash Valley by tomorrow evening with limited moisture pooling
ahead of this boundary. Hi res models along with a few of the
operational models show light QPF mainly along and north of the Ohio
River tomorrow. Have scattered sprinkles early Sunday, transitioning
to a 30 percent chance of a light rain shower Sunday afternoon.
Areas south of the the line will remain dry. High temperatures will
warm quite nicely despite the thickening cloud cover with the
mercury reaching the mid and upper 60s in most spots. A few spots in
the Bowling Green region could approach the 70 degree mark.
.Long Term (Sunday night - Saturday)...
Strong surface winds will continue sunday night into Monday, though
these should remain below advisory criteria as the surface pressure
gradient starts to weaken a bit. After more than two days of warm
air and moisture advection from these winds though, the pump will be
primed for showers and even a few thunderstorms to move through in
advance of a slow moving cold front. The chance for showers will
increase along and north of the Ohio River Sunday evening, then work
its way east-southeastward over the CWA and persist through Tuesday
evening. Thanks to the slow progress of this system, along with the
bulk of the upper dynamics remaining over the Great Lakes, whatever
thunderstorms that do occur should be relatively weak, with no
widespread threat of severe weather expected.
High temperatures on Monday will be 5-10 degrees above seasonal
norms, hovering within a few degrees either side of 70. Despite the
increase in precipitation over the area Tuesday, readings will still
reach the lower 60s thanks to the continued southerly wind flow. By
Wednesday, highs will top out in the 50s and remain there for the
remainder of the week.
Overnight lows will see the greatest variation through the week.
After a balmy upper 50s start to the work week and Tuesday morning,
more autumn-like lows in the 30s to lower 40s return by Wednesday,
with some upper 20s in the picture for Thursday morning as clear
skies and High pressure build in behind the cold front.
&&
.Aviation (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Tight pressure gradient remains over the region as we are in between
low pressure moving into south central Canada and a strong high off
the Carolina coast. This gradient should keep a steady southerly
wind across the TAF sites overnight. Winds just above the surface
are forecast to pick up overnight, creating low-level wind shear, as
a broad low-level jet forms over central Missouri. The fringe of
this jet will bring 50-60 kt winds at 2 kft over the TAF sites
overnight. Have timed this strengthening in this set of TAFs based
on a consensus of the NAM, GFS, and SREF.
Models also consistently bring in some lower level clouds after 06z
in time-height sections. HRRR hints at a narrow band of cigs around
3 kft as well. For now have kept in previous forecast for broken
cigs around 4 kft and will monitor for changes once we see these
clouds develop upstream.
By mid morning Sunday, we may still deal with some shear, but expect
winds to gust into the 30-35 kt range for the day, so will leave out
for now. Light showers will move into the KSDF terminal towards the
end of the day and continue overnight.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM EST /8 AM CST/ TO 5 PM EST /4 PM CST/
SUNDAY FOR INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.
KY...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM EST /8 AM CST/ TO 5 PM EST /4 PM CST/
SUNDAY FOR KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-
082.
$$
Short Term.......BJS
Long Term........JBS
Aviation.........RJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
916 PM EST SAT NOV 12 2011
.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND
THEN MOVE EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY.&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPDATE: DECREASED POPS ACROSS THE N AND NE AND MADE ANOTHER MINOR
ADJUSTMENT TO THE HRLY TEMPS...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH JUST WEST OF THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON WILL CROSS THE STATE BY EARLY THIS EVENING.
SAT IMG INDICATES OVERCAST SKIES ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL SECTIONS WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS ACROSS DOWNEAST THIS
AFTERNOON. RH PROGS INDICATE CLOUDS TO REMAIN ACROSS MOST OF
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS INTO EARLY THIS EVENING THEN
GRADUALLY CLEARING THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WITH THE TROUGH
PASSAGE. CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE ACROSS DOWNEAST BY EARLY THIS
EVENING. RADAR INDICATING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES HAVE
DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS. HRRR AND RUC
MODELS INDICATE THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE UNTIL UPPER TROUGH
MOVES EAST OF THE REGION EARLY THIS EVENING.
UPPER RIDGE CRESTS THE STATE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND THEN MOVES
EAST OF THE REGION BY NOONTIME. SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW WARM AIR ADVECTION TO OCCUR ACROSS THE STATE
WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE
NORTH AND THE 50S ACROSS DOWNEAST.&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS A
SERIES OF WAVES MOVES THROUGH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE FIRST WILL
COME SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. IT WILL BE
ENOUGH TO FIRE UP SOME SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE NEXT GOOD CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVES
MONDAY NIGHT WITH YET ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE TO TRAVERSE ACROSS THE
REGION. BRIEF RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND IN ITS
WAKE...SO EXPECT THERE WILL BE A BRIEF DRY SPELL TUESDAY BEFORE A
STRONGER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. RAIN FROM THIS FINAL WAVE
WILL SPREAD INTO MAINLY SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE UPSIDE OF ALL THESE SHORTWAVES WILL BE MILD
TEMPERATURES AS THEY LOOK TO STAY FAR ENOUGH NORTH THAT WE WILL STAY
OUT OF THE COLD AIR. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 50 NORTH
TO THE UPPER 50S DOWNEAST...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S DUE TO
CLOUD COVER.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RAIN SHOULD BE SPREADING NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ALONG THE COAST OF MAINE. THERE ARE
STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE GFS AND ECMWF IN THIS TIME FRAME.
THE GFS WANTS TO BRING THE LOW THROUGH ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...ON THE OTHER HAND IT SEEMS AS IF THE ECMWF IS ABOUT 18
TO 24 HOURS SLOWER. WILL LEAN WITH GFS WITH THIS PACKAGE. RAIN
SHOULD END LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE THEN MOVES IN FOR
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING BEFORE A WEAK SYSTEM PASSES OFF TO
THE NORTH BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP. TEMPERATURES AFTER
THE STORM WEDNESDAY WILL RETURN TO NORMAL NOVEMBER AVERAGES
THROUGH SATURDAY. USED A BLEND OF GMOS AND GFS FOR THE PERIOD AND
ADJUSTED AS NEEDED.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. FLURRIES POSSIBLE
ACROSS NORTHERN TERMINALS INTO EARLY THIS EVENING BUT SHOULD NOT
RESTRICT VSBY.
SHORT TERM: VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SCA WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS THIS
EVENING AND THEN EXPECT WINDS TO DROP BELOW SCA CRITERIA AFTER
MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER, SEAS ABOVE 5 FEET DUE TO SWELL WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT SO WILL KEEP SCA GOING FOR THE ENTIRE NIGHT.
SHORT TERM: SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KT ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SKIRTS BY TO THE NORTH OF THE
WATERS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED...FOR WAVES
AS WELL AS WINDS. CONDITIONS WILL SUBSIDE MONDAY NIGHT BUT WILL
INCREASE TO CLOSE TO SCA CRITERIA AGAIN TUESDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...KHW/FOSTER
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...HILL
AVIATION...KHW/FOSTER
MARINE...KHW/FOSTER/HASTINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
544 PM CST Sat Nov 12 2011
...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.DISCUSSION...
Short Range (Tonight through Monday)...
High cloud cover associated with a shortwave in Kansas with quickly
shift east late this afternoon and this evening. The next shortwave
trough in eastern Idaho will pass through Nebraska and Iowa and have
no affect on Missouri...given the meager moisture in place. The
shortwave trough will drive a surface trough into Missouri late
tonight and early Sunday with little if any cooling on Sunday.
For Monday and Monday night...models are similar with the upper
trough off the Baja coast. The trough will pass well to the south of
the forecast area with only a weak upper trough passage on Monday.
Given the lack of moisture...have significantly lowered the threat
of any showers for the southeast grids on Monday. Given the
downslope winds the next couple of days...prefer the warmest of the
guidance.
DB
Medium Range (Tuesday through Saturday)...
Mid-range models, as of the 12Z/12 model run, have all converged
towards a similar solution for next weeks weather, which could be
characterized best as a fast zonal flow. As Tuesday arrives, a
circulation, currently swinging from the eastern Pacific towards
Baja Mexico, will have sheared apart and been absorbed by a broad
trough that will be shifting across the CONUS. Westerlies moving
under the trough will only be displaced south a little, thus much of
the cold air to the north of the westerlies will remain trapped to
our north through the work week. As a result, expect afternoon highs
and overnight lows to remain within in a category or two of normal
through the work week. However, by the end of next work week, all
the mid-range models advertise a significant trough shifting across
the West Coast, with a southwest flow quickly developing across the
Central Plains States. This should result in temperatures drifting
back above normal for Friday and Saturday, but also might result in
showers. Moisture return in the southwest flow looks a little iffy,
as it will be taking the scenic route from the Gulf through central
Texas before hanging a right and heading north. Models all paint
significant showers across the region by Saturday, but thoughts are
that focus for much of the activity will be farther north,
associated with lifting warm front across Iowa. However, will keep
the slight chance POPs that the consensus model output is
advertising for now.
Cutter
&&
.AVIATION...
For the 00Z TAFs...Main concern will be low level winds as a 40-50 kt
southwesterly low level jet develops across much of Missouri
overnight. Both NAM and RUC indicate winds at 2000 ft increasing to
near or higher than 50 kt for a short period around sunrise as a low
level trough swings through, so added LLWS into the TAFs for this
period. Some of these winds may mix down to the surface overnight,
translating to gusts in the 20-25 kt range. Other concern will be the
potential for MVFR or even IFR cigs to develop overnight as low level
winds advect increasing moisture below 2000 ft. At this time, expect
bulk of moisture and any low cigs to stay east of the STJ-MCI-MKC
corridor, affecting mainly central Missouri and points east.
Hawblitzel
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
928 PM MST SAT NOV 12 2011
.UPDATE...THE MOUNTAIN WINDS ARE BLOWING STRONG IN POCKETS MAINLY
NEAR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THE SNOWFALL HAS NOT BEEN OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE SO FAR. AT 9 PM RADAR INDICATES THE COLD FRONT WAS
ORIENTED W-E JUST SOUTH OF MEEKER. THE 00Z NAM SHOWS LITTLE
ADDITIONAL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE TONIGHT AS
MOST OF ITS ENERGY SHEARS EAST OF THE DIVIDE. THEREFORE THE EAGLE
PORTION OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR WILL STAY IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE
STORM AND WILL PRODUCE RAIN TONIGHT INSTEAD OF SNOW. NORTH OF THE
FRONT...GUSTY WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG BUT SNOWFALL WILL DIMINISH IN
A LULL BEFORE THE NEXT UPPER WAVE ARRIVES EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT
TONIGHT MAINLY OROGRAPHICALLY DRIVEN IN THE STRONG WEST FLOW. THE
SW SAN JUAN MTNS...ALWAYS ON THE CUSP OF A HIGHLIGHT SNOW AMOUNT
WILL MOST LIKELY ONLY SEE A FEW INCHES OF SNOWFALL ON SUNDAY.
THEREFORE HAVE PULLED DOWN ADVISORIES FOR THERE AND THE EAGLE AREA.
ONE WORRISOME DETAIL FOR THE NORTHERN VALLEYS...THE OVERRUNNING
EVENT TOWARDS SUNDAY MORNING NOW NEVER SATURATES FULLY WITHIN THE
DENDRITIC CRYSTAL GROWTH REGION. WE WILL LOOK AT THIS AND OTHER
DETAILS FOR THE MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 851 PM MST SAT NOV 12 2011/
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT 2 PM THE SURFACE FRONT WAS THROUGH SLC AND APPROACHING PROVO AND
VERNAL...WITH SNOW FALLING AT HILL AFB AND EVANSTON WY...SO IT IS
RIGHT ON TRACK ACCORDING TO MODEL TIMING. ALSO AS PROJECTED THE
ACTIVE AREA OF THE FRONT IS DIMINISHING IN SIZE AND THE FRONTAL ZONE
IS GROWING THINNER IN SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS. THE PERIOD
OF MAXIMUM ACTIVE WEATHER IN NE UT AND NW CO WILL BE RELATIVELY BRIEF
TONIGHT. PRIME TIME FOR BEST SNOWFALL AND STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD BE
BETWEEN 9 PM AND MIDNIGHT. HAVE INCREASED THE CHC OF PRECIP OVER THE
NORTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE AREA...VALLEYS AND MOUNTAINS...FOR THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...HAVING HIGHER CERTAINTY WITH THIS INITIAL
SPURT OF RAIN AND SNOW. THE SNOWFALL IN THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD BE
ENOUGH FOR SEVERAL INCHES TO ACCUMULATE...ALONG WITH STRONG WESTERLY
FLOW AT AND JUST BELOW MOUNTAINTOP LEVEL. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR
THE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO MATERIALIZE. STILL EXPECT RABBIT EARS AND
VAIL PASSES TO SEE G50-60MPH THIS EVENING...WITH DRIFTING AND
WHITEOUT CONDITIONS MAKING TRAVEL DANGEROUS IF NOT IMPOSSIBLE.
AFTER THIS FRONT PASSES THERE WILL BE A LULL IN THE WINTER WEATHER
BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z TONIGHT. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A SECOND SURGE
SUNDAY. THIS WEAKER FRONT WILL BRING COOLER AIR THAT WILL RUN INTO
SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR IN PLACE OVER THE AREA. SOME OVERRUNNING IS
POSSIBLE RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL OVER NW AND CENTRAL CO...
INCLUDING THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
COLDER CONDITIONS AND RAPID CLEARING WILL FOLLOW THE SECOND SYSTEM
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
THANKS TO BOU PUB AND ABQ FOR COORDINATION.
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT-WAVE TRAIN FROM THE ALEUTIANS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BEHIND
THIS STORM SYSTEM AND RE-ENFORCE THE NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. 295K THETA SURFACE
NOT SHOWING A LARGE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM THE
PACIFIC...BUT IT IS TAKING A FAVORABLE ROUTE AND NOT BEING SQUEEZED
OUT BY ANY BIG RANGES BEFORE HITTING THE NORTHERN COLORADO
MOUNTAINS. THE LARGE SCALE ASCENT INCREASES AFTER MIDNIGHT ON MONDAY
WHEN JET SUPPORT ARRIVES ALONG WITH THE STRONGEST OF THE EMBEDDED
WAVES. OROGRAPHICS SHOULD CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE WESTERN ASPECTS FROM
STEAMBOAT DOWN TO CRESTED BUTTE...AND HAVE NUDGED POPS UP SLIGHTLY
WITH ONLY A FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION STILL INDICATED.
THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO DE-AMPLIFY DURING THE MID WEEK
TIME FRAME BUT A BUILDING RIDGE INTO THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC/GULF OF
ALASKA REGION...WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER TROF TO BEGIN TO CARVE OUT
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST STATES BY LATE IN THE WEEK. THE TREND THE
WESTERN TROF FORMATION HAS BEEN SLOWED DOWN FROM PREVIOUS RUNS AND
THIS SHOULD KEEP MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE THROUGH LATE WEEK.
WITH THE STRONGER WESTERLY...THEN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE A
REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES SHOULD OCCUR AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE TO
AT LEAST SEASONAL LEVELS BY MID WEEK AND POSSIBLY ABOVE IN AN
INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN. THERE ARE SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES BY THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEKEND WHEN THE FIRST LEADING
ENERGY EJECTS FROM THE TROF INTO THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN AND
THEREFORE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE.
&&
.AVIATION /FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
WITH THE COLD FRONT BECOMING STATIONARY JUST NORTH OF THE I-70
CORRIDOR... LOCAL IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE MOST
MTNS OVERNIGHT. A SECOND UPPER WAVE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHRASN TO
THE VALLEYS TOWARDS SUNDAY MORNING AND MTNS WILL BE MOSTLY OBSCURED.
STRONG WEST WINDS OF 40-60KTS AT 10,000FT MSL WILL PRODUCING STRONG
TURBULENCE. THE HIGHER TERMINAL SITES WILL MOST LIKELY SEE IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT IN LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WITH THE
MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER PASSES OBSCURED BY LOW CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION.
LOWER ELEVATIONS TAF SITES SUCH AS KGJT...KMTJ...KVEL WILL SLOWLY
DEGRADE TOWARD SUNRISE ON SUNDAY WHEN A SECONDARY SYSTEM PUSHES
THROUGH WITH ADDITIONAL MOISTURE.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MST SUNDAY FOR ZONES 002-003-
005-009-018.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST SUNDAY NIGHT FOR ZONES
010-012.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST SUNDAY NIGHT FOR ZONES
004-013.
UT...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE.......JOE
SHORT TERM...CJC
LONG TERM....15
AVIATION.....TGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
1221 AM EST SUN NOV 13 2011
.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND
THEN MOVE EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURE GRIDS.
SHORTWAVE TROUGH JUST WEST OF THEREGION THIS AFTERNOON WILL CROSS
THE STATE BY EARLY THIS EVENING. SAT IMG INDICATES OVERCAST SKIES
ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS WITH A MIX OF SUN AND
CLOUDS ACROSS DOWNEAST THIS AFTERNOON. RH PROGS INDICATE CLOUDS TO
REMAIN ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING THEN GRADUALLY CLEARING THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT
WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGE. CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE ACROSS DOWNEAST BY
EARLY THIS EVENING. RADAR INDICATING SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
SECTIONS. HRRR AND RUC MODELS INDICATE THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE
UNTIL UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE REGION EARLY THIS EVENING.
UPPER RIDGE CRESTS THE STATE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND THEN MOVES
EAST OF THE REGION BY NOONTIME. SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW WARM AIR ADVECTION TO OCCUR ACROSS THE STATE
WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE
NORTH AND THE 50S ACROSS DOWNEAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS A
SERIES OF WAVES MOVES THROUGH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE FIRST WILL
COME SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. IT WILL BE
ENOUGH TO FIRE UP SOME SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE NEXT GOOD CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVES
MONDAY NIGHT WITH YET ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE TO TRAVERSE ACROSS THE
REGION. BRIEF RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND IN ITS
WAKE...SO EXPECT THERE WILL BE A BRIEF DRY SPELL TUESDAY BEFORE A
STRONGER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. RAIN FROM THIS FINAL WAVE
WILL SPREAD INTO MAINLY SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE UPSIDE OF ALL THESE SHORTWAVES WILL BE MILD
TEMPERATURES AS THEY LOOK TO STAY FAR ENOUGH NORTH THAT WE WILL STAY
OUT OF THE COLD AIR. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 50 NORTH
TO THE UPPER 50S DOWNEAST...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S DUE TO
CLOUD COVER.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RAIN SHOULD BE SPREADING NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ALONG THE COAST OF MAINE. THERE ARE
STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE GFS AND ECMWF IN THIS TIME FRAME.
THE GFS WANTS TO BRING THE LOW THROUGH ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...ON THE OTHER HAND IT SEEMS AS IF THE ECMWF IS ABOUT 18
TO 24 HOURS SLOWER. WILL LEAN WITH GFS WITH THIS PACKAGE. RAIN
SHOULD END LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE THEN MOVES IN FOR
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING BEFORE A WEAK SYSTEM PASSES OFF TO
THE NORTH BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP. TEMPERATURES AFTER
THE STORM WEDNESDAY WILL RETURN TO NORMAL NOVEMBER AVERAGES
THROUGH SATURDAY. USED A BLEND OF GMOS AND GFS FOR THE PERIOD AND
ADJUSTED AS NEEDED.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. FLURRIES POSSIBLE
ACROSS NORTHERN TERMINALS INTO EARLY THIS EVENING BUT SHOULD NOT
RESTRICT VSBY.
SHORT TERM: VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SCA WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS THIS
EVENING AND THEN EXPECT WINDS TO DROP BELOW SCA CRITERIA AFTER
MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER, SEAS ABOVE 5 FEET DUE TO SWELL WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT SO WILL KEEP SCA GOING FOR THE ENTIRE NIGHT.
SHORT TERM: SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KT ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SKIRTS BY TO THE NORTH OF THE
WATERS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED...FOR WAVES
AS WELL AS WINDS. CONDITIONS WILL SUBSIDE MONDAY NIGHT BUT WILL
INCREASE TO CLOSE TO SCA CRITERIA AGAIN TUESDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...MIGNONE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS EUREKA CA
445 AM PST SUN NOV 13 2011
.SYNOPSIS...
ANY LINGERING CLOUDS WILL GIVE WAY TO SUNSHINE TODAY. GENERALLY DRY
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH JUST SOME
OCCASIONAL SLIGHT CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAINFALL NEAR THE OREGON BORDER.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR A SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH COOLER AND DAMP WEATHER CONTINUING INTO THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK TROUGH PUSHING INLAND ACROSS
OREGON HAS PUSHED THROUGH A BIT QUICKER THAN PROGGED THUS PULLED
POPS FROM THE REST OF TODAY. RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK VORT MAX
CONTINUING TO PUSH TO OUR SOUTH WITH NVA ACROSS NRN CA. DRYING IS
ALREADY OCCURRING AT THE MID LEVELS BUT THERE IS STILL SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LAGGING BEHIND AS EVIDENCED BY SOME LOWER CEILINGS AT NORTH
COASTAL SITES. ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT THESE WILL SCATTER OUT NO
LATER THAN THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS CONTINUE THIS PATTERN OF WNW FLOW
WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES PASSING BY IN ONSHORE FLOW. THE GENERAL TREND
WILL BE FOR HEIGHTS TO RISE AND DRIER AIR TO MOVE IN THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM WED NT/THU...ALTHOUGH
EVEN THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT LOOK AS MAJOR AS EARLIER ADVERTISED. KEPT
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR A COUPLE PERIODS MON NT/TUE BUT AM NOT CONVINCED
WE SEE ANY MORE THAN THE SHOWER OR TWO THAT WE SAW WITH THIS CURRENT
PASSING TROUGH. CLOUD COVER WILL BE MORE PROBLEMATIC. THIS TIME OF
YEAR EXPECT LESS IN THE WAY OF FOG OR REALLY LOW CEILINGS WITH THE
TENDENCY FOR MORE MIXING AND SUNSHINE ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST EACH
AFTERNOON. MODELS DIFFER ON DETAILS OF COLD UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSION
FOR LATE WEEK BUT THE BOTTOM LINE WILL BE A COOL SHOWERY PATTERN
WITH MUCH LOWER SNOW LEVELS. HOWEVER THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION PRODUCER FOR AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...PRIMARILY VFR WITH MID TO HIGH CIGS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SOME PATCHY MVFR CIGS AT THE COAST NEAR KACV FROM ADVECTING MARINE
STRATOCUMULUS THIS MORNING SHOULD SCATTER OUT BY MID MORNING. MKN
&&
.MARINE...N WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
OVERNIGHT. AS WINDS SUBSIDE BELOW SCA VALUES THE NW SWELL IS
INCREASING OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY SO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE
OFF SHORE AND ARE IN PLACE FOR TONIGHT THRU TUE INSIDE 10 NM. MKN
&&
.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM PST TUESDAY
PZZ450-455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PST TUESDAY
PZZ470-475.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.EUREKA.GOV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
824 AM EST SUN NOV 13 2011
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOWLY EASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY WITH WINDY MILD CONDITIONS TODAY, THEN SHOWERS LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY CHILLY CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
RECENT NAM MODEL OUTPUT AND 12Z UPPER AIR DATA SUPPORT THE IDEA OF
DRY, MILD CONDITIONS ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY WINDS TODAY. FORECASTED
A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AGAIN TODAY, WHICH WILL PROMOTE THE
VERTICAL MIXING TO TAP THE FAST WINDS ALOFT TO CAUSE THE GUSTY
WINDS. NAM MODEL PROFILES SUGGEST GUSTS CAN REACH 35 TO 40 MPH.
AFTERNOON HIGHS CAN BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL, AS
SUGGESTED BY BLEND OF RECENT GFS AND NAM MOS AND HRRR MODEL
OUTPUT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PER BLEND OF RECENT SREF MODEL OUTPUT, CONTINUE TO EXPECT THE
FIRST SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE INCOMING COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM TO
BEGIN SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY EARLY
TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS LATE TONIGHT.
CONTINUED SOUTHWEST WINDS, IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT, WILL SUPPORT WARM
OVERNIGHT LOWS...APPROXIMATELY 15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE...AGAIN
FORECAST USING A GUIDANCE BLEND.
LIKELY PRECIP PROBABILITIES WERE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ARE PROJECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE UPPER OHIO REGION. USING A
CONSERVATIVE APPROACH TO RAINFALL RATES DUE TO PROGRESSIVE NATURE
OF THOSE DISTURBANCES...QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECASTS WERE
LIMITED TO JUST OVER AN INCH FOR THE PERIOD AT THIS JUNCTURE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PER BLEND OF RECENT NAEFS AND ECMWF MODEL OUTPUT, EXPECT SHOWER
BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM TO BE EXITING PAST THE
MOUNTAINS ON WEDNESDAY.
COLD POST-SYSTEM WESTERLY FLOW WILL PROVIDE COLDER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, AND MAY MAINTAIN CLOUDS AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE I-80 CORRIDOR AND MOUNTAINS.
AS TENNESSEE VALLEY HIGH PRESSURE EXITS EAST, LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL
TURN SOUTHWEST TO PROVIDE A DRY WARM UP FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, PER
BLEND OF RECENT GFS MOS AND NAEFS MEDIAN VALUES.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TODAY`S MAIN CONCERN WILL BE SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 40 TO 50 KTS AT 2
KFT AGL AND HIGHER, THAT CAN RESULT IN LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR THIS
MORNING UNTIL THE SURFACE INVERSION MIXES OUT, AT WHICH TIME THESE
FAST WINDS CAN CAUSE GUSTS OF 30 KTS, PER RECENT NAM MODEL PROFILES.
REGARDING CLOUDS, EXPECT VFR TODAY WITH NO LOWER THAN ALTOCUMULUS
CLOUDS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. FIRST PREFRONTAL SHOWERS EARLY
TONIGHT CAN CAUSE STRATOCUMULUS CEILINGS BUT THESE WILL BE STILL
BE MAINLY VFR.
OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
BANDS OF SHOWERS, ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONTAL
SYSTEM, WILL PROVIDE PERIODS OF RESTRICTIONS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT AREA WIDE, AND POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE NORTH AND
MOUNTAINS.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
948 AM EST SUN NOV 13 2011
LATEST UPDATE...SHORT TERM...
.SYNOPSIS...(400 AM EST SUN NOV 13 2011)
LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL BRING
STRENGTHENING WINDS TODAY AND A FEW SHOWERS. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL TRACK UP THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY. A FEW SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH IT MAY CLIP FAR SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. IT WILL
TURN SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(948 AM EST SUN NOV 13 2011)
(REST OF THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
I DID SOME MINOR UPDATES TO THE ZONES FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING
AND INTO THIS EVENING. MOSTLY I INCREASED POP NEAR AND NORTH OF
ROUTE 10 FOR THIS AFTERNOON TO LIKELY AND CONTINUED TO POP INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING. THAT WAS MOSTLY BASED ON THE LATEST DATA FROM
THE RUC 12Z ...HRRR 11Z AND SREF 09Z WHICH SUGGEST THE BEST RH AND
LIFT WILL BE NEAR AND NORTH OF ROUTE 10. SINCE THERE ARE SHOWERS
SEEN ON RADAR (NOT REACHING THE GROUND YET) OVER SOUTHEAST MN AND
THAT MATCHED NICELY THE LATEST HRRR FORECAST DATA SEEMS MORE THE
REASONABLE.
I STILL BELIEVE WHAT THE PREVIOUS SHIFT HAD TO SAY ABOUT THE WINDS
NOT BEING ABLE TO MIX DOWN THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE LACK OF SOLAR
RADIATION TO AID THE CAUSE. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS THROUGH SINCE
50 KNOTS IS NOT TO FAR OFF THE GROUND. A LITTLE DEEPER MIXING AND
WE WILL SEE WINDS IN ADVISORY RANGE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...STILL SOME FAIRLY
SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE DISCREPANCIES REGARDING THE MONDAY
SYSTEM WITH 00Z NAM GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING HIGHER POPS/GREATER QPF
THAN THE 00Z GFS. THIS STILL SEEMS TIED TO HOW STRONG/WHERE THE
GREATEST MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL BE. IT IS NOTED
THOUGH THAT EVEN THE 00Z GFS NOW HAS STRONG MID LEVEL FGEN ALONG THE
I-94 CORRIDOR BY 18Z MON. MAV GUIDANCE POPS LOOK LOW FOR OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF MID LEVEL FGEN THAT IS
PROGGED. WE WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS FOR RAIN FOR OUR SOUTHERN FCST
AREA MONDAY WITH CHC POPS FOR MOST OF THE REST OF OUR FCST AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM...(400 AM EST SUN NOV 13 2011)
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN
TUESDAY NIGHT AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE FRONT
WILL BRING MUCH COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION WHICH WILL KICK IN SOME
LAKE EFFECT SNOW.
THERE MAY BE A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT
EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH ANY PRECIPITATION SWITCHING OVER TO SNOW
OVERNIGHT. MOISTURE IS NOT VERY DEEP TUESDAY NIGHT...SO NOT
EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING LOOKS TO BE A COLD PERIOD WITH
SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW. DELTA T/S INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO ALMOST
20 DEGREES C...WITH CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE. ONLY QUESTION MARK AT
THIS POINT IS MOISTURE DEPTH. MODELS USUALLY ARE TOO LOW IN REGARD
TO LAKE EFFECT MOISTURE DEPTH OUT THIS FAR IN THE FORECAST...SO SEE
THE NEED TO PROBABLY RAMP UP POPS A LITTLE MORE WITH TIME. NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION TO SEE SOME LIGHT ACCUMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT TOWARD THE
LAKE...MAINLY ON GRASSY AREAS.
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY FOR THE MOST PART
AS SOUTHERLY FLOW TAKES HOLD ONCE AGAIN. HAVE SMALL POPS IN THE
SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE
AREA. BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE
WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLDER THAN NORMAL TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN COLD NORTHWEST FLOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY IN DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(715 AM EST SUN NOV 13 2011)
THE MAIN STORY WITH THIS MORNING/S TAF ISSUANCE IS THE WIND. SOUTH
WINDS (180-200 DEGREES) OF 15-30 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH SOME
GUSTS REACHING THE 30-35 KNOT RANGE. THE WINDS WILL REMAIN UP ALL
DAY...SUBSIDING SUBSTANTIALLY AND EVEN LOSING THE GUSTINESS AFTER
01Z OR SO THIS EVENING. A CROSS WIND IS OBVIOUSLY EXPECTED ON
EAST/WEST RUNWAYS THROUGH THE DAY.
VFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE BULK OF FORECAST PERIOD IN THE
3500-7000FT RANGE. A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THIS
MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AT THE NORTHERN TAF SITES OF KMKG...KGRR AND KLAN. AT THIS
POINT USING VCSH WITH NO RESTRICTION TO VISIBILITY.
&&
.MARINE...(400 AM EST SUN NOV 13 2011)
SOUTHERLY GALES TO 35 KTS WILL CAUSE WAVE HEIGHTS TO BUILD TO 6 TO
10 FEET TODAY. A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN A
GRADUAL DECREASE IN WINDS AND WAVES.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...(400 AM EST SUN NOV 13 2011)
ANY RAINFALL TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL NOT BE SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO
CAUSE ANY HYDRO ISSUES. HOWEVER THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR AROUND A HALF
AN INCH OF RAIN OR SO ALONG THE I-94 CORRIDOR MONDAY.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE NEARSHORE THROUGH 06Z MON.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS: LAURENS
SHORT TERM: LAURENS WDM
LONG TERM: DUKE
AVIATION: DUKE
MARINE: LAURENS
HYDROLOGY: LAURENS
FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
312 PM CST SUN NOV 13 2011
.DISCUSSION...
1008 AM CST
THE CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL AND SHORT TERM MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE A VERY WINDY AFTERNOON...WITH SCATTERING OF THE CLOUDS
CURRENTLY OVER CHICAGOLAND. WIND GUSTS HAVE ALREADY BEEN OBSERVED
TO 45 MPH IN PONTIAC...48 MPH IN CHAMPAIGN-URBANA...AND EVEN UP
TO 55 MPH FURTHER SOUTH IN CENTRAL IL...WHICH IS IN THE UPSTREAM
FLOW. STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW SEEN ON THIS MORNINGS RAOBS AND
PROFILES IS ATOP THE AREA AND ASSOCIATED WAVE ACROSS IOWA IS
MOVING QUICKLY EAST. A 990 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR WATERLOO IS
CORRELATED WITH THIS AND HAS HELPED TO BETTER DEFINE A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH WHERE WINDS SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST AND RAPIDLY INCREASE. THE
ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT IS ITS STRONGEST IN THIS AREA AS WELL. THIS
TROUGH IS ALSO NEAR THE LEADING EDGE OF THE CLEARING LINE
FURTHERING MIXING AS IT ENTERS THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA THROUGH
NOON. THE HRRR WIND GUST FORECASTS DO SHOW THE AXIS OF 40 TO NEAR
50 MPH GUSTS COMING EAST NEAR THE INTERSTATE 39 CORRIDOR TOWARDS
WATSEKA AROUND NOON MOVING INTO CHICAGO BY 1 TO 3 PM. HAVE
EXPANDED WIND ADVISORY TO INCLUDE THE FAR NORTHWEST FORECAST AREA
AS ROCKFORD SOUNDINGS ON THE 12Z NAM SUPPORT WIND ADVISORY
SUSTAINED SPEEDS BEING REACHED SOON.
MTF
//PREV DISCUSSION...
327 AM CST
A VERY ACTIVE PROGRESSIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...THE MAIN
CONCERN WILL FOCUS ON WINDS. WITH A VERY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS OF 50-60KT RIGHT OFF THE
DECK...WINDS HAVE BEEN RATHER STRONG AND GUSTY THROUGH THE NIGHT.
EXPECT THE STRONG WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. WITH
SOME PARTIAL CLEARING EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...IT IS LIKELY THAT
WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 50 MPH MAY MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. SO...WILL
MAINTAIN THE WIND ADVISORY THAT IS IN PLACE FOR TODAY. THE ONE
PORTION OF THE CWA THAT MAY ESCAPE THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE THE
FAR NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...INCLUDING THE ROCKFORD AREA.
A SHORT WAVE TRACKING OVER SRN WISCONSIN TODAY SHOULD INDUCE A WEAK
SFC WAVE THAT WILL TRACK THROUGH NWRN IL AND SRN WISCONSIN. THIS
MAY INTRODUCE ENOUGH BAGGINESS TO THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT
WINDS MAY NOT GET QUITE AS STRONG THERE.
THE OTHER CONCERN FOR THE NEAR TERM FORECAST WILL BE THE CHANCES FOR
SOME SPRINKLES OF DRIZZLE FOR THE MORNING HOURS. THE LATEST SFC
ANALYSIS INDICATES A TONGUE OF ENHANCED MOISTURE FROM THE RED RIVER
VALLEY...THROUGH THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO
ILLINOIS...WITH SFC DEWPOINTS EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE UPPER 40S.
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...THE STRONG SLY-SSWLY FLOW SHOULD
CONTINUE TO ADVECT MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA WITH SFC
DEWPOINTS REACHING INTO THE LOWER 50S. THE SHORT WAVE TRACKING
ACROSS SRN WISCONSIN SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING TO GENERATE SOME
SHOWERS FOR THE NRN TIER COUNTIES. HOWEVER...WITH THE MOISTURE
CONFINED TO THE LOWER LEVELS...WITH RH TIME SECTIONS ONLY INDICATING
NEAR SATURATED CONDITIONS BELOW 6KFT...AND A LAYER OF DRY AIR
ABOVE...EXPECT ANY PCPN SOUTH OF THE NRN TIER COUNTIES TO BE EITHER
LIGHT SPRINKLES OR DRIZZLE. BY THIS AFTERNOON...THE SHORT WAVE
SHOULD PUSH OFF TO THE EAST AND AT LEAST PARTIALLY CLEARING SKIES
SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME SUNSHINE.
BY SUNSET...WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE AND FOCUS OF CONCERN WILL
SHIFT TO THE NEXT SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE REGION. THE MODELS ARE
ADVERTISING A SRN STREAM SHORT WAVE WILL DROP OUT OF THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES AND TRACK ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. THE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY
LIFT NEWD ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OVERNIGHT AND INTO
IL/IN BY MIDDAY MONDAY. PERSISTENT SWLY SFC FLOW WILL DRAW MORE
GULF MOISTURE TOWARD THE REGION. FAST SWLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE
UPPER TROUGH SHOULD SHEAR OUT THE SHORT WAVE...AND THE BEST FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM, WILL FOCUS FROM CNTRL IL TO NRN/CNTRL
INDIANA. THERE SHOULD BE ADEQUATE WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT TO BRING SOME PCPN TO MUCH OF THE CWA...BUT THE HEAVIEST PCPN
SHOULD BE OVER THE SERN PORTIONS...GENERALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF A
LINE FROM CHICAGO TO PONTIAC. THERE IS A REMOTE CHANCE FOR SOME
THUNDER WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT WITH THE BEST FORCING SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE CWA...WILL NOT CARRY ANY MENTION OF TS IN THE FORECAST.
THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN VERY PROGRESSIVE INTO MIDWEEK AND THE NEXT
SYSTEM OF CONCERN...A STRONG NRN STREAM SYSTEM WILL DROP ACROSS THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY EARLY
TUESDAY EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WILL DRAG A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA BRINGING A SHOT OF COLD AIR OUT OF CANADA. STRONG COLD
ADVECTION WILL SET UP FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH 850MB TEMPS
ON THE ORDER OF -8 TO -10C SPREADING ACROSS NRN IL/IN. BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
AMPLE SUNSHINE SHOULD ONLY PARTIALLY COUNTERACT THE COLD ADVECTION
AND TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL HAVE A HARD TIME REACTING...ONLY
REACHING INTO THE UPPER 30S OR LOWER 40S.
FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN RATHER QUIET THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE LOWER
50S BY FRIDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PCPN WILL COME FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE ACTUALLY RELATIVELY CONSISTENT ON
EJECTING SOME SRN STREAM ENERGY OUT OF THE CNTRL ROCKIES AND
DEVELOPING A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS TO THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AN OPEN GULF WOULD ALLOW FOR A DECENT RETURN
FLOW OF MOISTURE OVERRUNNING THE BOUNDARY...BRINGING CHANCES OF RAIN
FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
KREIN
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 21Z...
* WINDS GUSTS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.
* POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN ON MONDAY.
KJB
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
THE MAIN ISSUES BY FAR ARE THE SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. THE
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS LATE THIS MORNING SHOWS THE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ACROSS EAST CENTRAL IOWA.
SURFACE WINDS TO THE EAST OF THIS FEATURE HAVE REALLY JUMPED UP OVER
THE PAST FEW HOURS ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND NORTHWESTERN INDIANA
AS STRONG PRESSURE FALLS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE AN INCREASE IN
THE WINDS AT KORD AND KMDW HERE WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AS THE
SURFACE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS
AND STRONG PRESSURE RISES COMMENCE TO THE WEST. THEREFORE...WE ARE
STILL EXPECTING THE WINDS TO BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE
AROUND 25 TO 30 KT WITH GUSTS AROUND 40 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THESE WINDS WILL QUICKLY ABATE AROUND SUNSET.
ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS ON MONDAY. THIS LOOKS TO
BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS ON MONDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER...THE MAJORITY OF THE RAINFALL WILL REMAIN TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE TAF SITES.
KJB
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 21Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS ABATING THIS EVENING.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN RAIN CHANCES ON MONDAY.
KJB
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
MONDAY NIGHT...VFR.
TUESDAY...VFR WITH BREEZY WEST WINDS.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY...VFR WITH SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHRA FRIDAY
NIGHT.
SATURDAY...CHANCE SHRA.
MDB
&&
.MARINE...
217 PM CST
IT LOOKS LIKE AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BRING SEVERAL WIND
EVENTS ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. OUR CURRENT
GALE FORCE WINDS LOOK TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTH
HALF OF THE LAKE. HOWEVER...FARTHER NORTH THE WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED
BELOW GALE FORCE AND SHOULD REMAIN SUB GALE. THEREFORE...I HAVE
DECIDED TO END THE GALE WARNING EARLY FOR THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE LAKE.
THE WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE 10 TO 25 KT RANGE ACROSS THE
LAKE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...THERE ARE A FEW PERIODS WHERE
STRONGER WINDS NEAR GALE FORCE LOOK POSSIBLE. FIRST...A STRONG COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER LAKE MICHIGAN LATE TUESDAY...AND MORE
LIKELY EARLY TUESDAY EVENING. THIS LOOKS TO PRODUCE A PERIOD OF SOME
GALE FORCE WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS MUCH COLDER AIR
SPILLS OVER THE LAKE AND SETS UP SOME UNSTABLE CONDITIONS.
THEN LATER IN THE WEEK ANOTHER STRONG STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE COUNTY. THIS LOOKS TO SET UP
SOME STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
KJB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...WIND ADVISORY...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-ILZ011-
ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ022-ILZ023-
ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039 UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY.
IN...WIND ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011-INZ019 UNTIL 6 PM
SUNDAY.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ740-
LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-
LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 UNTIL 9 PM SUNDAY.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
219 PM CST SUN NOV 13 2011
.DISCUSSION...
1008 AM CST
THE CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL AND SHORT TERM MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE A VERY WINDY AFTERNOON...WITH SCATTERING OF THE CLOUDS
CURRENTLY OVER CHICAGOLAND. WIND GUSTS HAVE ALREADY BEEN OBSERVED
TO 45 MPH IN PONTIAC...48 MPH IN CHAMPAIGN-URBANA...AND EVEN UP
TO 55 MPH FURTHER SOUTH IN CENTRAL IL...WHICH IS IN THE UPSTREAM
FLOW. STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW SEEN ON THIS MORNINGS RAOBS AND
PROFILES IS ATOP THE AREA AND ASSOCIATED WAVE ACROSS IOWA IS
MOVING QUICKLY EAST. A 990 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR WATERLOO IS
CORRELATED WITH THIS AND HAS HELPED TO BETTER DEFINE A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH WHERE WINDS SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST AND RAPIDLY INCREASE. THE
ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT IS ITS STRONGEST IN THIS AREA AS WELL. THIS
TROUGH IS ALSO NEAR THE LEADING EDGE OF THE CLEARING LINE
FURTHERING MIXING AS IT ENTERS THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA THROUGH
NOON. THE HRRR WIND GUST FORECASTS DO SHOW THE AXIS OF 40 TO NEAR
50 MPH GUSTS COMING EAST NEAR THE INTERSTATE 39 CORRIDOR TOWARDS
WATSEKA AROUND NOON MOVING INTO CHICAGO BY 1 TO 3 PM. HAVE
EXPANDED WIND ADVISORY TO INCLUDE THE FAR NORTHWEST FORECAST AREA
AS ROCKFORD SOUNDINGS ON THE 12Z NAM SUPPORT WIND ADVISORY
SUSTAINED SPEEDS BEING REACHED SOON.
MTF
//PREV DISCUSSION...
327 AM CST
A VERY ACTIVE PROGRESSIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...THE MAIN
CONCERN WILL FOCUS ON WINDS. WITH A VERY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS OF 50-60KT RIGHT OFF THE
DECK...WINDS HAVE BEEN RATHER STRONG AND GUSTY THROUGH THE NIGHT.
EXPECT THE STRONG WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. WITH
SOME PARTIAL CLEARING EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...IT IS LIKELY THAT
WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 50 MPH MAY MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. SO...WILL
MAINTAIN THE WIND ADVISORY THAT IS IN PLACE FOR TODAY. THE ONE
PORTION OF THE CWA THAT MAY ESCAPE THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE THE
FAR NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...INCLUDING THE ROCKFORD AREA.
A SHORT WAVE TRACKING OVER SRN WISCONSIN TODAY SHOULD INDUCE A WEAK
SFC WAVE THAT WILL TRACK THROUGH NWRN IL AND SRN WISCONSIN. THIS
MAY INTRODUCE ENOUGH BAGGINESS TO THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT
WINDS MAY NOT GET QUITE AS STRONG THERE.
THE OTHER CONCERN FOR THE NEAR TERM FORECAST WILL BE THE CHANCES FOR
SOME SPRINKLES OF DRIZZLE FOR THE MORNING HOURS. THE LATEST SFC
ANALYSIS INDICATES A TONGUE OF ENHANCED MOISTURE FROM THE RED RIVER
VALLEY...THROUGH THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO
ILLINOIS...WITH SFC DEWPOINTS EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE UPPER 40S.
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...THE STRONG SLY-SSWLY FLOW SHOULD
CONTINUE TO ADVECT MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA WITH SFC
DEWPOINTS REACHING INTO THE LOWER 50S. THE SHORT WAVE TRACKING
ACROSS SRN WISCONSIN SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING TO GENERATE SOME
SHOWERS FOR THE NRN TIER COUNTIES. HOWEVER...WITH THE MOISTURE
CONFINED TO THE LOWER LEVELS...WITH RH TIME SECTIONS ONLY INDICATING
NEAR SATURATED CONDITIONS BELOW 6KFT...AND A LAYER OF DRY AIR
ABOVE...EXPECT ANY PCPN SOUTH OF THE NRN TIER COUNTIES TO BE EITHER
LIGHT SPRINKLES OR DRIZZLE. BY THIS AFTERNOON...THE SHORT WAVE
SHOULD PUSH OFF TO THE EAST AND AT LEAST PARTIALLY CLEARING SKIES
SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME SUNSHINE.
BY SUNSET...WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE AND FOCUS OF CONCERN WILL
SHIFT TO THE NEXT SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE REGION. THE MODELS ARE
ADVERTISING A SRN STREAM SHORT WAVE WILL DROP OUT OF THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES AND TRACK ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. THE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY
LIFT NEWD ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OVERNIGHT AND INTO
IL/IN BY MIDDAY MONDAY. PERSISTENT SWLY SFC FLOW WILL DRAW MORE
GULF MOISTURE TOWARD THE REGION. FAST SWLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE
UPPER TROUGH SHOULD SHEAR OUT THE SHORT WAVE...AND THE BEST FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM, WILL FOCUS FROM CNTRL IL TO NRN/CNTRL
INDIANA. THERE SHOULD BE ADEQUATE WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT TO BRING SOME PCPN TO MUCH OF THE CWA...BUT THE HEAVIEST PCPN
SHOULD BE OVER THE SERN PORTIONS...GENERALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF A
LINE FROM CHICAGO TO PONTIAC. THERE IS A REMOTE CHANCE FOR SOME
THUNDER WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT WITH THE BEST FORCING SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE CWA...WILL NOT CARRY ANY MENTION OF TS IN THE FORECAST.
THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN VERY PROGRESSIVE INTO MIDWEEK AND THE NEXT
SYSTEM OF CONCERN...A STRONG NRN STREAM SYSTEM WILL DROP ACROSS THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY EARLY
TUESDAY EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WILL DRAG A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA BRINGING A SHOT OF COLD AIR OUT OF CANADA. STRONG COLD
ADVECTION WILL SET UP FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH 850MB TEMPS
ON THE ORDER OF -8 TO -10C SPREADING ACROSS NRN IL/IN. BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
AMPLE SUNSHINE SHOULD ONLY PARTIALLY COUNTERACT THE COLD ADVECTION
AND TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL HAVE A HARD TIME REACTING...ONLY
REACHING INTO THE UPPER 30S OR LOWER 40S.
FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN RATHER QUIET THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE LOWER
50S BY FRIDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PCPN WILL COME FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE ACTUALLY RELATIVELY CONSISTENT ON
EJECTING SOME SRN STREAM ENERGY OUT OF THE CNTRL ROCKIES AND
DEVELOPING A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS TO THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AN OPEN GULF WOULD ALLOW FOR A DECENT RETURN
FLOW OF MOISTURE OVERRUNNING THE BOUNDARY...BRINGING CHANCES OF RAIN
FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
KREIN
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* WINDS TURNING SOUTHWEST BEHIND A COOL FRONT WITH GUSTS
INCREASING TO AROUND 40 KT WITH SOME BRIEF GUSTS TO AROUND 45 KT
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
* POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN ON MONDAY.
KJB
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
THE MAIN ISSUES BY FAR ARE THE SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. THE
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS LATE THIS MORNING SHOWS THE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ACROSS EAST CENTRAL IOWA.
SURFACE WINDS TO THE EAST OF THIS FEATURE HAVE REALLY JUMPED UP OVER
THE PAST FEW HOURS ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND NORTHWESTERN INDIANA
AS STRONG PRESSURE FALLS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE AN INCREASE IN
THE WINDS AT KORD AND KMDW HERE WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AS THE
SURFACE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS
AND STRONG PRESSURE RISES COMMENCE TO THE WEST. THEREFORE...WE ARE
STILL EXPECTING THE WINDS TO BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE
AROUND 25 TO 30 KT WITH GUSTS AROUND 40 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THESE WINDS WILL QUICKLY ABATE AROUND SUNSET.
ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS ON MONDAY. THIS LOOKS TO
BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS ON MONDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER...THE MAJORITY OF THE RAINFALL WILL REMAIN TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE TAF SITES.
KJB
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS TURNING SOUTHWESTERLY BEHIND A COOL
FRONT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THAT THERE WILL
BE SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 45 KT.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN RAIN CHANCES ON MONDAY.
KJB
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
MONDAY NIGHT...VFR.
TUESDAY...VFR WITH BREEZY WEST WINDS.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY...VFR WITH SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHRA FRIDAY
NIGHT.
SATURDAY...CHANCE SHRA.
MDB
&&
.MARINE...
217 PM CST
IT LOOKS LIKE AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BRING SEVERAL WIND
EVENTS ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. OUR CURRENT
GALE FORCE WINDS LOOK TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTH
HALF OF THE LAKE. HOWEVER...FARTHER NORTH THE WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED
BELOW GALE FORCE AND SHOULD REMAIN SUB GALE. THEREFORE...I HAVE
DECIDED TO END THE GALE WARNING EARLY FOR THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE LAKE.
THE WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE 10 TO 25 KT RANGE ACROSS THE
LAKE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...THERE ARE A FEW PERIODS WHERE
STRONGER WINDS NEAR GALE FORCE LOOK POSSIBLE. FIRST...A STRONG COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER LAKE MICHIGAN LATE TUESDAY...AND MORE
LIKELY EARLY TUESDAY EVENING. THIS LOOKS TO PRODUCE A PERIOD OF SOME
GALE FORCE WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS MUCH COLDER AIR
SPILLS OVER THE LAKE AND SETS UP SOME UNSTABLE CONDITIONS.
THEN LATER IN THE WEEK ANOTHER STRONG STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE COUNTY. THIS LOOKS TO SET UP
SOME STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
KJB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...WIND ADVISORY...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-ILZ011-
ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ022-ILZ023-
ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039 UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY.
IN...WIND ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011-INZ019 UNTIL 6 PM
SUNDAY.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-
LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-
LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 UNTIL 9 PM SUNDAY.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1153 AM CST SUN NOV 13 2011
.DISCUSSION...
1008 AM CST
THE CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL AND SHORT TERM MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE A VERY WINDY AFTERNOON...WITH SCATTERING OF THE CLOUDS
CURRENTLY OVER CHICAGOLAND. WIND GUSTS HAVE ALREADY BEEN OBSERVED
TO 45 MPH IN PONTIAC...48 MPH IN CHAMPAIGN-URBANA...AND EVEN UP
TO 55 MPH FURTHER SOUTH IN CENTRAL IL...WHICH IS IN THE UPSTREAM
FLOW. STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW SEEN ON THIS MORNINGS RAOBS AND
PROFILES IS ATOP THE AREA AND ASSOCIATED WAVE ACROSS IOWA IS
MOVING QUICKLY EAST. A 990 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR WATERLOO IS
CORRELATED WITH THIS AND HAS HELPED TO BETTER DEFINE A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH WHERE WINDS SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST AND RAPIDLY INCREASE. THE
ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT IS ITS STRONGEST IN THIS AREA AS WELL. THIS
TROUGH IS ALSO NEAR THE LEADING EDGE OF THE CLEARING LINE
FURTHERING MIXING AS IT ENTERS THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA THROUGH
NOON. THE HRRR WIND GUST FORECASTS DO SHOW THE AXIS OF 40 TO NEAR
50 MPH GUSTS COMING EAST NEAR THE INTERSTATE 39 CORRIDOR TOWARDS
WATSEKA AROUND NOON MOVING INTO CHICAGO BY 1 TO 3 PM. HAVE
EXPANDED WIND ADVISORY TO INCLUDE THE FAR NORTHWEST FORECAST AREA
AS ROCKFORD SOUNDINGS ON THE 12Z NAM SUPPORT WIND ADVISORY
SUSTAINED SPEEDS BEING REACHED SOON.
MTF
//PREV DISCUSSION...
327 AM CST
A VERY ACTIVE PROGRESSIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...THE MAIN
CONCERN WILL FOCUS ON WINDS. WITH A VERY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS OF 50-60KT RIGHT OFF THE
DECK...WINDS HAVE BEEN RATHER STRONG AND GUSTY THROUGH THE NIGHT.
EXPECT THE STRONG WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. WITH
SOME PARTIAL CLEARING EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...IT IS LIKELY THAT
WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 50 MPH MAY MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. SO...WILL
MAINTAIN THE WIND ADVISORY THAT IS IN PLACE FOR TODAY. THE ONE
PORTION OF THE CWA THAT MAY ESCAPE THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE THE
FAR NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...INCLUDING THE ROCKFORD AREA.
A SHORT WAVE TRACKING OVER SRN WISCONSIN TODAY SHOULD INDUCE A WEAK
SFC WAVE THAT WILL TRACK THROUGH NWRN IL AND SRN WISCONSIN. THIS
MAY INTRODUCE ENOUGH BAGGINESS TO THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT
WINDS MAY NOT GET QUITE AS STRONG THERE.
THE OTHER CONCERN FOR THE NEAR TERM FORECAST WILL BE THE CHANCES FOR
SOME SPRINKLES OF DRIZZLE FOR THE MORNING HOURS. THE LATEST SFC
ANALYSIS INDICATES A TONGUE OF ENHANCED MOISTURE FROM THE RED RIVER
VALLEY...THROUGH THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO
ILLINOIS...WITH SFC DEWPOINTS EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE UPPER 40S.
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...THE STRONG SLY-SSWLY FLOW SHOULD
CONTINUE TO ADVECT MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA WITH SFC
DEWPOINTS REACHING INTO THE LOWER 50S. THE SHORT WAVE TRACKING
ACROSS SRN WISCONSIN SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING TO GENERATE SOME
SHOWERS FOR THE NRN TIER COUNTIES. HOWEVER...WITH THE MOISTURE
CONFINED TO THE LOWER LEVELS...WITH RH TIME SECTIONS ONLY INDICATING
NEAR SATURATED CONDITIONS BELOW 6KFT...AND A LAYER OF DRY AIR
ABOVE...EXPECT ANY PCPN SOUTH OF THE NRN TIER COUNTIES TO BE EITHER
LIGHT SPRINKLES OR DRIZZLE. BY THIS AFTERNOON...THE SHORT WAVE
SHOULD PUSH OFF TO THE EAST AND AT LEAST PARTIALLY CLEARING SKIES
SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME SUNSHINE.
BY SUNSET...WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE AND FOCUS OF CONCERN WILL
SHIFT TO THE NEXT SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE REGION. THE MODELS ARE
ADVERTISING A SRN STREAM SHORT WAVE WILL DROP OUT OF THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES AND TRACK ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. THE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY
LIFT NEWD ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OVERNIGHT AND INTO
IL/IN BY MIDDAY MONDAY. PERSISTENT SWLY SFC FLOW WILL DRAW MORE
GULF MOISTURE TOWARD THE REGION. FAST SWLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE
UPPER TROUGH SHOULD SHEAR OUT THE SHORT WAVE...AND THE BEST FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM, WILL FOCUS FROM CNTRL IL TO NRN/CNTRL
INDIANA. THERE SHOULD BE ADEQUATE WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT TO BRING SOME PCPN TO MUCH OF THE CWA...BUT THE HEAVIEST PCPN
SHOULD BE OVER THE SERN PORTIONS...GENERALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF A
LINE FROM CHICAGO TO PONTIAC. THERE IS A REMOTE CHANCE FOR SOME
THUNDER WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT WITH THE BEST FORCING SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE CWA...WILL NOT CARRY ANY MENTION OF TS IN THE FORECAST.
THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN VERY PROGRESSIVE INTO MIDWEEK AND THE NEXT
SYSTEM OF CONCERN...A STRONG NRN STREAM SYSTEM WILL DROP ACROSS THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY EARLY
TUESDAY EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WILL DRAG A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA BRINGING A SHOT OF COLD AIR OUT OF CANADA. STRONG COLD
ADVECTION WILL SET UP FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH 850MB TEMPS
ON THE ORDER OF -8 TO -10C SPREADING ACROSS NRN IL/IN. BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
AMPLE SUNSHINE SHOULD ONLY PARTIALLY COUNTERACT THE COLD ADVECTION
AND TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL HAVE A HARD TIME REACTING...ONLY
REACHING INTO THE UPPER 30S OR LOWER 40S.
FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN RATHER QUIET THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE LOWER
50S BY FRIDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PCPN WILL COME FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE ACTUALLY RELATIVELY CONSISTENT ON
EJECTING SOME SRN STREAM ENERGY OUT OF THE CNTRL ROCKIES AND
DEVELOPING A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS TO THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AN OPEN GULF WOULD ALLOW FOR A DECENT RETURN
FLOW OF MOISTURE OVERRUNNING THE BOUNDARY...BRINGING CHANCES OF RAIN
FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
KREIN
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* WINDS TURNING SOUTHWEST BEHIND A COOL FRONT WITH GUSTS
INCREASING TO AROUND 40 KT WITH SOME BRIEF GUSTS TO AROUND 45 KT
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
* POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN ON MONDAY.
KJB
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
THE MAIN ISSUES BY FAR ARE THE SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. THE
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS LATE THIS MORNING SHOWS THE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ACROSS EAST CENTRAL IOWA.
SURFACE WINDS TO THE EAST OF THIS FEATURE HAVE REALLY JUMPED UP OVER
THE PAST FEW HOURS ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND NORTHWESTERN INDIANA
AS STRONG PRESSURE FALLS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE AN INCREASE IN
THE WINDS AT KORD AND KMDW HERE WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AS THE
SURFACE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS
AND STRONG PRESSURE RISES COMMENCE TO THE WEST. THEREFORE...WE ARE
STILL EXPECTING THE WINDS TO BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE
AROUND 25 TO 30 KT WITH GUSTS AROUND 40 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THESE WINDS WILL QUICKLY ABATE AROUND SUNSET.
ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS ON MONDAY. THIS LOOKS TO
BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS ON MONDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER...THE MAJORITY OF THE RAINFALL WILL REMAIN TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE TAF SITES.
KJB
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS TURNING SOUTHWESTERLY BEHIND A COOL
FRONT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THAT THERE WILL
BE SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 45 KT.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN RAIN CHANCES ON MONDAY.
KJB
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
MONDAY NIGHT...VFR.
TUESDAY...VFR WITH BREEZY WEST WINDS.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY...VFR WITH SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHRA FRIDAY
NIGHT.
SATURDAY...CHANCE SHRA.
MDB
&&
.MARINE...
305 AM CST
LITTLE CHANGE TO OVERALL FORECAST FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH DEEP
LOW PRESSURE SPINNING FROM SOUTHEAST MANITOBA INTO WESTERN ONTARIO
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE SITS OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. A COMBINATION
OF A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET JUST ABOVE
THE SURFACE HAS RESULTED IN SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS NEAR OR JUST OVER
GALE FORCE ACROSS THE LAKE EARLY THIS MORNING. THE LOW WILL DEEPEN
AND CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS HUDSON BAY TONIGHT AND
MONDAY. A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LAKE TODAY BRINGING IN A
PERIOD OF COOL ADVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. STILL
EXPECT GALES TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE LAKE AND PICK UP ACROSS THE
SOUTH HALF OF THE LAKE TODAY BEFORE SETTLING DOWN THIS EVENING. WILL
CONTINUE WITH 35 KT MENTION NORTH WITH GALES INCREASING TO 45 KT ON
THE SOUTH HALF OF THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON. THERE APPEARS TO BE A
SHORT SEVERAL HOUR WINDOW WHERE GUSTS COULD REACH 50 KT AS THE COLD
FRONT PASSES MIDDAY OR SO BUT THIS LOOKS TO BE INFREQUENT IF IT CAN
OCCUR. STABILITY MAY BE ABLE TO MITIGATE SOME OF THE MAXIMUM GUSTS
BUT LOW LEVEL WINDS OF 40 KT ARE PRESENT STARTING AROUND 500 FT SO
40-45 KT GUSTS SHOULD STILL OCCUR. THE ISOLATED STORM FORCE GUSTS
MAY BE MORE LIKELY...ALBEIT STILL A LOW CHANCE...CLOSER TO THE
INDIANA AND ILLINOIS SHORES AS MIXING SHOULD BE OF GREATER DEPTH AS
AIRMASS ADVECTS OFF OF LAND.
WINDS WILL DROP BELOW GALE FORCE SOMETIME THIS EVENING BUT SPEEDS
WILL STAY ELEVATED WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK
TROUGH CROSSES THE AREA. ANOTHER LOW WILL THEN TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS
THE AREA TUESDAY LEADING TO ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE FOR AT LEAST LOW END
GALES TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
IN WEDNESDAY BUT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS RATHER TIGHT SO WINDS
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED UNTIL SOMETIME THURSDAY. A SERIES OF LOWS WILL
CROSS THE LAKE INTO THE WEEKEND BRINGING PERIODIC INCREASES IN WINDS
AND WAVES AND SOME POSSIBILITY FOR AT LEAST LOW END GALES.
MDB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...WIND ADVISORY...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-ILZ011-
ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ022-ILZ023-
ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039 UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY.
IN...WIND ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011-INZ019 UNTIL 6 PM
SUNDAY.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-
LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-
LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 UNTIL 9 PM SUNDAY.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1024 AM CST SUN NOV 13 2011
.DISCUSSION...
1008 AM CST
THE CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL AND SHORT TERM MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE A VERY WINDY AFTERNOON...WITH SCATTERING OF THE CLOUDS
CURRENTLY OVER CHICAGOLAND. WIND GUSTS HAVE ALREADY BEEN OBSERVED
TO 45 MPH IN PONTIAC...48 MPH IN CHAMPAIGN-URBANA...AND EVEN UP
TO 55 MPH FURTHER SOUTH IN CENTRAL IL...WHICH IS IN THE UPSTREAM
FLOW. STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW SEEN ON THIS MORNINGS RAOBS AND
PROFILES IS ATOP THE AREA AND ASSOCIATED WAVE ACROSS IOWA IS
MOVING QUICKLY EAST. A 990 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR WATERLOO IS
CORRELATED WITH THIS AND HAS HELPED TO BETTER DEFINE A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH WHERE WINDS SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST AND RAPIDLY INCREASE. THE
ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT IS ITS STRONGEST IN THIS AREA AS WELL. THIS
TROUGH IS ALSO NEAR THE LEADING EDGE OF THE CLEARING LINE
FURTHERING MIXING AS IT ENTERS THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA THROUGH
NOON. THE HRRR WIND GUST FORECASTS DO SHOW THE AXIS OF 40 TO NEAR
50 MPH GUSTS COMING EAST NEAR THE INTERSTATE 39 CORRIDOR TOWARDS
WATSEKA AROUND NOON MOVING INTO CHICAGO BY 1 TO 3 PM. HAVE
EXPANDED WIND ADVISORY TO INCLUDE THE FAR NORTHWEST FORECAST AREA
AS ROCKFORD SOUNDINGS ON THE 12Z NAM SUPPORT WIND ADVISORY
SUSTAINED SPEEDS BEING REACHED SOON.
MTF
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
327 AM CST
A VERY ACTIVE PROGRESSIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...THE MAIN
CONCERN WILL FOCUS ON WINDS. WITH A VERY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS OF 50-60KT RIGHT OFF THE
DECK...WINDS HAVE BEEN RATHER STRONG AND GUSTY THROUGH THE NIGHT.
EXPECT THE STRONG WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. WITH
SOME PARTIAL CLEARING EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...IT IS LIKELY THAT
WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 50 MPH MAY MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. SO...WILL
MAINTAIN THE WIND ADVISORY THAT IS IN PLACE FOR TODAY. THE ONE
PORTION OF THE CWA THAT MAY ESCAPE THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE THE
FAR NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...INCLUDING THE ROCKFORD AREA.
A SHORT WAVE TRACKING OVER SRN WISCONSIN TODAY SHOULD INDUCE A WEAK
SFC WAVE THAT WILL TRACK THROUGH NWRN IL AND SRN WISCONSIN. THIS
MAY INTRODUCE ENOUGH BAGGINESS TO THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT
WINDS MAY NOT GET QUITE AS STRONG THERE.
THE OTHER CONCERN FOR THE NEAR TERM FORECAST WILL BE THE CHANCES FOR
SOME SPRINKLES OF DRIZZLE FOR THE MORNING HOURS. THE LATEST SFC
ANALYSIS INDICATES A TONGUE OF ENHANCED MOISTURE FROM THE RED RIVER
VALLEY...THROUGH THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO
ILLINOIS...WITH SFC DEWPOINTS EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE UPPER 40S.
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...THE STRONG SLY-SSWLY FLOW SHOULD
CONTINUE TO ADVECT MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA WITH SFC
DEWPOINTS REACHING INTO THE LOWER 50S. THE SHORT WAVE TRACKING
ACROSS SRN WISCONSIN SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING TO GENERATE SOME
SHOWERS FOR THE NRN TIER COUNTIES. HOWEVER...WITH THE MOISTURE
CONFINED TO THE LOWER LEVELS...WITH RH TIME SECTIONS ONLY INDICATING
NEAR SATURATED CONDITIONS BELOW 6KFT...AND A LAYER OF DRY AIR
ABOVE...EXPECT ANY PCPN SOUTH OF THE NRN TIER COUNTIES TO BE EITHER
LIGHT SPRINKLES OR DRIZZLE. BY THIS AFTERNOON...THE SHORT WAVE
SHOULD PUSH OFF TO THE EAST AND AT LEAST PARTIALLY CLEARING SKIES
SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME SUNSHINE.
BY SUNSET...WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE AND FOCUS OF CONCERN WILL
SHIFT TO THE NEXT SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE REGION. THE MODELS ARE
ADVERTISING A SRN STREAM SHORT WAVE WILL DROP OUT OF THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES AND TRACK ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. THE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY
LIFT NEWD ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OVERNIGHT AND INTO
IL/IN BY MIDDAY MONDAY. PERSISTENT SWLY SFC FLOW WILL DRAW MORE
GULF MOISTURE TOWARD THE REGION. FAST SWLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE
UPPER TROUGH SHOULD SHEAR OUT THE SHORT WAVE...AND THE BEST FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM, WILL FOCUS FROM CNTRL IL TO NRN/CNTRL
INDIANA. THERE SHOULD BE ADEQUATE WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT TO BRING SOME PCPN TO MUCH OF THE CWA...BUT THE HEAVIEST PCPN
SHOULD BE OVER THE SERN PORTIONS...GENERALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF A
LINE FROM CHICAGO TO PONTIAC. THERE IS A REMOTE CHANCE FOR SOME
THUNDER WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT WITH THE BEST FORCING SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE CWA...WILL NOT CARRY ANY MENTION OF TS IN THE FORECAST.
THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN VERY PROGRESSIVE INTO MIDWEEK AND THE NEXT
SYSTEM OF CONCERN...A STRONG NRN STREAM SYSTEM WILL DROP ACROSS THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY EARLY
TUESDAY EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WILL DRAG A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA BRINGING A SHOT OF COLD AIR OUT OF CANADA. STRONG COLD
ADVECTION WILL SET UP FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH 850MB TEMPS
ON THE ORDER OF -8 TO -10C SPREADING ACROSS NRN IL/IN. BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
AMPLE SUNSHINE SHOULD ONLY PARTIALLY COUNTERACT THE COLD ADVECTION
AND TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL HAVE A HARD TIME REACTING...ONLY
REACHING INTO THE UPPER 30S OR LOWER 40S.
FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN RATHER QUIET THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE LOWER
50S BY FRIDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PCPN WILL COME FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE ACTUALLY RELATIVELY CONSISTENT ON
EJECTING SOME SRN STREAM ENERGY OUT OF THE CNTRL ROCKIES AND
DEVELOPING A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS TO THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AN OPEN GULF WOULD ALLOW FOR A DECENT RETURN
FLOW OF MOISTURE OVERRUNNING THE BOUNDARY...BRINGING CHANCES OF RAIN
FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
KREIN
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 14Z...
* SOUTH WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 30 KT THROUGH THE MORNING.
* WINDS TURNING SOUTHWEST BEHIND A COOL FRONT WITH GUSTS
INCREASING TO AROUND 40 KT WITH SOME BRIEF GUSTS TO AROUND 45 KT
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
* MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING EXITING TO THE EAST AROUND MIDDAY.
MDB/KJB
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH STILL TO THE WEST OF THE TERMINALS ACROSS
CENTRAL IOWA WITH THE MAIN SURFACE LOW ACROSS WESTERN ONTARIO.
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT WITH WINDS INCREASING TO
AROUND 50 KT IN THE FIRST 2000 FT OF THE ATMOSPHERE. SURFACE WIND
GUSTS HAVE SUBSIDED SOMEWHAT LIKELY DUE TO STRENGTHENED LOW LEVEL
INVERSION BUT SPEEDS WILL BE INCREASING THIS MORNING AND
ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH CIRRUS NOW STREAMING OVERHEAD WITH
SCT-BKN PATCHES OF LOWER END VFR CLOUD COVER LINGERING AS WELL.
THERE IS STILL SUPPORT FOR NEW MVFR/VFR CIG DEVELOPMENT AS THE LOW
PRESSURE MOVES CLOSER THIS MORNING BUT HAVE SEEN MINIMAL EVIDENCE
SHOWING THIS HAS BEGUN. WILL CONTINUE WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS
THIS MORNING THOUGH THIS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED. SOME GUIDANCE
ALSO SHOWS IFR DEVELOPMENT BUT AM HAVING A TOUGH TIME FINDING MUCH
SUPPORT FOR THIS.
WINDS ARE THE NEXT CONCERN. WITH VERY STRONG WINDS JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE GUSTS SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE AFTER DAYBREAK THANKS TO
INCREASED MIXING BUT NEW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT MAY ACT TO SUPPRESS THE
GUSTS SOMEWHAT. WILL CONTINUE WITH IDEA OF 25 TO 30 KT GUSTS THIS
MORNING THOUGH THESE WOULD NEED TO BE INCREASED IF LOWER CLOUD
COVER DOES NOT MATERIALIZE. THE SURFACE TROUGH/FRONT WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE AREA AROUND MIDDAY TURNING WINDS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AND
SCOURING OUT ANY LOW CLOUD COVER. WITH COOL AIR MOVING IN ABOVE
THE SURFACE AND CLEARING SKIES WIND GUSTS SHOULD INCREASE
MARKEDLY THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT THE CHICAGO/NW INDIANA
TERMINALS. WILL GO WITH PREVAILING GUSTS OF 40 KT AT ORD AND MDW
THOUGH THERE IS SOME CHANCE FOR BRIEF GUSTS AROUND 45 KT ALONG AND
BEHIND THE FRONT. GUSTS AT RFD SHOULD BE IN THE 35 KT RANGE THANKS
TO A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING
AND BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT WITH VFR EXPECTED.
MDB
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 14Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SOUTH WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 30 KT THROUGH
THE MORNING.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS TURNING SOUTHWESTERLY BEHIND A COOL
FRONT AROUND MIDDAY WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THAT
THERE WILL BE SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 45 KT.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS IMPROVING THIS AFTERNOON.
MDB/KJB
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
MONDAY NIGHT...VFR.
TUESDAY...VFR WITH BREEZY WEST WINDS.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY...VFR WITH SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHRA FRIDAY
NIGHT.
SATURDAY...CHANCE SHRA.
MDB
&&
.MARINE...
305 AM CST
LITTLE CHANGE TO OVERALL FORECAST FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH DEEP
LOW PRESSURE SPINNING FROM SOUTHEAST MANITOBA INTO WESTERN ONTARIO
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE SITS OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. A COMBINATION
OF A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET JUST ABOVE
THE SURFACE HAS RESULTED IN SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS NEAR OR JUST OVER
GALE FORCE ACROSS THE LAKE EARLY THIS MORNING. THE LOW WILL DEEPEN
AND CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS HUDSON BAY TONIGHT AND
MONDAY. A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LAKE TODAY BRINGING IN A
PERIOD OF COOL ADVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. STILL
EXPECT GALES TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE LAKE AND PICK UP ACROSS THE
SOUTH HALF OF THE LAKE TODAY BEFORE SETTLING DOWN THIS EVENING. WILL
CONTINUE WITH 35 KT MENTION NORTH WITH GALES INCREASING TO 45 KT ON
THE SOUTH HALF OF THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON. THERE APPEARS TO BE A
SHORT SEVERAL HOUR WINDOW WHERE GUSTS COULD REACH 50 KT AS THE COLD
FRONT PASSES MIDDAY OR SO BUT THIS LOOKS TO BE INFREQUENT IF IT CAN
OCCUR. STABILITY MAY BE ABLE TO MITIGATE SOME OF THE MAXIMUM GUSTS
BUT LOW LEVEL WINDS OF 40 KT ARE PRESENT STARTING AROUND 500 FT SO
40-45 KT GUSTS SHOULD STILL OCCUR. THE ISOLATED STORM FORCE GUSTS
MAY BE MORE LIKELY...ALBEIT STILL A LOW CHANCE...CLOSER TO THE
INDIANA AND ILLINOIS SHORES AS MIXING SHOULD BE OF GREATER DEPTH AS
AIRMASS ADVECTS OFF OF LAND.
WINDS WILL DROP BELOW GALE FORCE SOMETIME THIS EVENING BUT SPEEDS
WILL STAY ELEVATED WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK
TROUGH CROSSES THE AREA. ANOTHER LOW WILL THEN TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS
THE AREA TUESDAY LEADING TO ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE FOR AT LEAST LOW END
GALES TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
IN WEDNESDAY BUT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS RATHER TIGHT SO WINDS
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED UNTIL SOMETIME THURSDAY. A SERIES OF LOWS WILL
CROSS THE LAKE INTO THE WEEKEND BRINGING PERIODIC INCREASES IN WINDS
AND WAVES AND SOME POSSIBILITY FOR AT LEAST LOW END GALES.
MDB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...WIND ADVISORY...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-ILZ011-
ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ022-ILZ023-
ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039 UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY.
IN...WIND ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011-INZ019 UNTIL 6 PM
SUNDAY.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-
LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-
LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 UNTIL 9 PM SUNDAY.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
102 PM EST SUN NOV 13 2011
LATEST UPDATE...AVIATION...
.SYNOPSIS...(400 AM EST SUN NOV 13 2011)
LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL BRING
STRENGTHENING WINDS TODAY AND A FEW SHOWERS. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL TRACK UP THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY. A FEW SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH IT MAY CLIP FAR SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. IT WILL
TURN SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(948 AM EST SUN NOV 13 2011)
(REST OF THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
I DID SOME MINOR UPDATES TO THE ZONES FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING
AND INTO THIS EVENING. MOSTLY I INCREASED POP NEAR AND NORTH OF
ROUTE 10 FOR THIS AFTERNOON TO LIKELY AND CONTINUED TO POP INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING. THAT WAS MOSTLY BASED ON THE LATEST DATA FROM
THE RUC 12Z ...HRRR 11Z AND SREF 09Z WHICH SUGGEST THE BEST RH AND
LIFT WILL BE NEAR AND NORTH OF ROUTE 10. SINCE THERE ARE SHOWERS
SEEN ON RADAR (NOT REACHING THE GROUND YET) OVER SOUTHEAST MN AND
THAT MATCHED NICELY THE LATEST HRRR FORECAST DATA SEEMS MORE THE
REASONABLE.
I STILL BELIEVE WHAT THE PREVIOUS SHIFT HAD TO SAY ABOUT THE WINDS
NOT BEING ABLE TO MIX DOWN THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE LACK OF SOLAR
RADIATION TO AID THE CAUSE. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS THROUGH SINCE
50 KNOTS IS NOT TO FAR OFF THE GROUND. A LITTLE DEEPER MIXING AND
WE WILL SEE WINDS IN ADVISORY RANGE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...STILL SOME FAIRLY
SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE DISCREPANCIES REGARDING THE MONDAY
SYSTEM WITH 00Z NAM GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING HIGHER POPS/GREATER QPF
THAN THE 00Z GFS. THIS STILL SEEMS TIED TO HOW STRONG/WHERE THE
GREATEST MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL BE. IT IS NOTED
THOUGH THAT EVEN THE 00Z GFS NOW HAS STRONG MID LEVEL FGEN ALONG THE
I-94 CORRIDOR BY 18Z MON. MAV GUIDANCE POPS LOOK LOW FOR OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF MID LEVEL FGEN THAT IS
PROGGED. WE WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS FOR RAIN FOR OUR SOUTHERN FCST
AREA MONDAY WITH CHC POPS FOR MOST OF THE REST OF OUR FCST AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM...(400 AM EST SUN NOV 13 2011)
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN
TUESDAY NIGHT AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE FRONT
WILL BRING MUCH COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION WHICH WILL KICK IN SOME
LAKE EFFECT SNOW.
THERE MAY BE A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT
EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH ANY PRECIPITATION SWITCHING OVER TO SNOW
OVERNIGHT. MOISTURE IS NOT VERY DEEP TUESDAY NIGHT...SO NOT
EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING LOOKS TO BE A COLD PERIOD WITH
SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW. DELTA T/S INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO ALMOST
20 DEGREES C...WITH CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE. ONLY QUESTION MARK AT
THIS POINT IS MOISTURE DEPTH. MODELS USUALLY ARE TOO LOW IN REGARD
TO LAKE EFFECT MOISTURE DEPTH OUT THIS FAR IN THE FORECAST...SO SEE
THE NEED TO PROBABLY RAMP UP POPS A LITTLE MORE WITH TIME. NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION TO SEE SOME LIGHT ACCUMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT TOWARD THE
LAKE...MAINLY ON GRASSY AREAS.
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY FOR THE MOST PART
AS SOUTHERLY FLOW TAKES HOLD ONCE AGAIN. HAVE SMALL POPS IN THE
SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE
AREA. BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE
WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLDER THAN NORMAL TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN COLD NORTHWEST FLOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY IN DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(102 PM EST SUN NOV 13 2011)
GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
STREAMS INTO THE REGION. CIGS WILL LIKELY REMAIN AROUND 3K FT THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE RISING TONIGHT. SHOWERS POSSIBLE NEAR KMKG THIS
AFTERNOON.
VFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE BULK OF FORECAST PERIOD IN THE
3500-7000FT RANGE. A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THIS
MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AT THE NORTHERN TAF SITES OF KMKG...KGRR AND KLAN. AT THIS
POINT USING VCSH WITH NO RESTRICTION TO VISIBILITY.
&&
.MARINE...(400 AM EST SUN NOV 13 2011)
SOUTHERLY GALES TO 35 KTS WILL CAUSE WAVE HEIGHTS TO BUILD TO 6 TO
10 FEET TODAY. A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN A
GRADUAL DECREASE IN WINDS AND WAVES.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...(400 AM EST SUN NOV 13 2011)
ANY RAINFALL TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL NOT BE SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO
CAUSE ANY HYDRO ISSUES. HOWEVER THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR AROUND A HALF
AN INCH OF RAIN OR SO ALONG THE I-94 CORRIDOR MONDAY.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE NEARSHORE THROUGH 06Z MON.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS: LAURENS
SHORT TERM: LAURENS WDM
LONG TERM: DUKE
AVIATION: 93
MARINE: LAURENS
HYDROLOGY: LAURENS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GLASGOW MT
1037 AM MST SUN NOV 13 2011
.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO RAISE THE TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES THIS
MORNING. ADDED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES FOR
LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN THIS MORNING...ZORTMAN WAS REPORTING LIGHT
SNOW AROUND 0945. ADJUSTED THE SKY COVER DOWN SOME AS BREAKS IN
THE CLOUD COVER ARE SHOWING UP ON THE VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP. THE
OVERALL SITUATION IS STILL NORTHWEST FLOW WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES
MOVING ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA. THE PROBLEM IS THE LACK OF MID AND
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT IN THE ATMOSPHERE WHEN THESE
SHORTWAVE CROSS EASTERN MONTANA. A FEW OF THE MODELS ARE ALSO
STARTING TO BACK OFF OF SEEING PRECIPITATION FOR THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
THE NAM HAS DRIED NORTHEAST MONTANA OUT FOR THE REST OF THE DAY
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW CLIPPING EXTREME NORTHEAST MONTANA.
THE GFS IS STILL TRYING TO BRING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH
NEMONT THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. LOOKING AT
THE HRRR MODEL IT LOOKS MORE LIKE THE NAM FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.
MY THOUGHTS ON TODAY ARE TO LEAVE THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN
OR SNOW IN THE FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION. ANYTHING PRECIPITATION
THAT DOES HAPPEN WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND WILL NOT BE MUCH MORE THEN
A TRACE. THERE IS STILL A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW AS A COLD
FRONT CROSS EASTERN MONTANA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH EARLY MONDAY
MORNING INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. RSMITH
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AT 15 TO 25 MPH WILL
QUICKLY DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING. THUS THE LAKE
WIND ADVISORY EXPIRATION TIME OF 6 PM LOOKS ON TRACK. THE MAIN
TROUGH BODY WILL CLEAR THE REGION TO THE SOUTH AND EAST BY EARLY
EVENING AS WELL. A LARGE REGION OF LOW STRATUS CURRENTLY EXISTS
ACROSS SOUTHERN ALBERTA AND SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. EXPECT THIS
CLOUD COVER TO PUSH IN THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WHILE THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW STAYS NORTHWEST. WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THIS FLOW COULD
DRIVE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS...IN ADDITION SOME LIGHT FLURRIES OR
DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE OUT OF THE STRATUS.
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT THE UNSETTLED NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA. GIVEN THIS FLOW PATTERN AND
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW PERIODS OF
LIGHT PRECIPITATION...THUS KEPT MENTION IN THE FORECAST. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS LOOK TO RETURN LATE SUNDAY MORNING...AND ANOTHER
LAKE WIND ADVISORY LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET.
MONDAY WILL BRING ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND BETTER
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION. BRISK GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...AND WILL LIKELY REACH THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE
WITH A FEW GUSTS APPROACHING 40 MPH AT TIMES. TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO BE ON THE COOL SIDE BEHIND THE FRONT...STRUGGLING TO CLIMB
OUT OF THE 30S AT MOST LOCATIONS. GILCHRIST
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY... THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH A
SYNOPTIC SET UP OF A TROUGH RUNNING DOWN NUNAVUT TO MANITOBA AND A
RIDGE RUNNING UP THE COAST OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MONTANA WILL BE
WEDGED BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES ON THE COLDER SIDE OF NORTHWEST
FLOW PATTERN. CONDITIONS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY DRY THROUGH THIS
PERIOD WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES JUST A LITTLE BELOW
NORMAL.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... AS THE RIDGE CROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST IT WILL BEGIN EXTENDING A WEAK CHINOOK OVER THE REGION WITH
VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WARMING CONDITIONS TO NEAR OR JUST ABOVE
NORMAL.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT... THE CHINOOK SHUTS OFF AND
THE FIRST WAVE OF TRUE ARCTIC AIR THAT HAD BEEN GATHERING OVER THE
ALASKAN NORTH SLOPE BEGINS TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. A STRONG DROP
OFF IN TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES CAN BE
ANTICIPATED AS THE BOUNDARY SETS ITSELF UP WELL TO THE SOUTH OVER
NORTHERN WYOMING. AT THIS POINT... A TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE WEST
COAST OF THE CONUS AND BEGIN LEVELING WARMER MOIST PACIFIC AIR UP
INTO THE MID LEVELS ON SOUTHWEST FLOW.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... WHILE MODELS CAN CHANGE THIS FAR OUT A
HIGHER THAN NORMAL SIGNAL IS BEING SENT AS THE GFS AND EC MATCH AND
STANDARD DEVIATION OF THE ENSEMBLE SPREADS IS RATHER LOW. PACIFIC
MOISTURE WILL RIDE UP AND OVER THE DEVELOPED ARCTIC BOUNDARY AND
GENERATE A FAIRLY STRONG SNOW STORM SOMEWHERE BETWEEN WYOMING...
EASTERN MONTANA... AND THE DAKOTAS. AT THE MOMENT BEST GUESS IS
FOR THE BULK OF THE SNOW TO BE TO THE SOUTH. BUT WITH FUTURE RUNS
THIS STORM COULD EASILY DRIFT NORTH. CONFIDENCE IN THE STORM IS
SURPRISINGLY WELL ABOVE AVERAGE THIS FAR OUT BUT PLACEMENT IS NOT
YET CERTAIN AS THE ARCTIC FRONT IS SURE TO NEED ADJUSTING. GAH
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR WITH A MID LEVEL BROKEN TO OVERCAST DECK. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF
THE WEST AROUND 15 TO 20 KTS GUSTING UP TO 30 KTS FOR SOME PLACES.
&&
.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR FORT PECK
LAKE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1216 PM CST SUN NOV 13 2011
.UPDATE...MIDDAY SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A COLD FRONT EXTENDING
ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...WITH FROPA COMPLETE ACROSS OUR ENTIRE CWA AS OF 18Z. THE
LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD REMAINS FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST AS A
RESULT...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS NEAR 20KTS LOCATED ACROSS OUR
EAST IN AN AREA JUST BEHIND THE FRONT WHERE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE
RISES ARE THE GREATEST. SURFACE WINDS ARE DIMINISHING ACROSS OUR
WEST HOWEVER AS THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT FORCE CONTINUES
WEAKENING FARTHER BEHIND THE FRONT.
SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AND LOW LEVEL CAA WILL
LIKELY KEEP AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES FROM RISING VERY FAR THIS
AFTERNOON. GOING FORECAST HAD THIS WELL IN HAND WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID 50S TO NEAR 60...THUS NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO FORECAST
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. DOWN SLOPE WEST/NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH PBL MIXING EXPECTED TO
RISE TO NEAR 800MB THIS AFTERNOON. RUC AND LAPS PROXIMITY
SOUNDINGS FROM ACROSS THE CWA SUGGEST THE DRIEST AIR IS LOCATED
CLOSER TO THE SURFACE TODAY...WITH SLIGHTLY MORE MOISTURE EXISTING
ABOVE 900MB. LAYER-AVERAGED DEW POINTS FROM 800MB PER THE NAM DO
NOT SUGGEST MUCH OF DROP OFF IN AFTERNOON SURFACE DEW POINTS AS A
RESULT...HOWEVER SURFACE ANALYSIS DOES INDICATE MUCH LOWER SURFACE
DEW POINT ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA BEGINNING TO ADVECT INTO OUR
AREA...THUS THERE MAY STILL BE A DROP IN AFTERNOON DEW
POINTS...PERHAPS FALLING INTO THE LOW TO MID 20 DEGREE RANGE.
THESE DEW POINTS AND FORECAST AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ONLY YIELD
AFTERNOON RH VALUES IN THE 23%-25% RANGE ACROSS OUR WEST...AND
WITH SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DIMINISHING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...DO NOT CURRENTLY EXPECT RFW ISSUANCE WILL BE
REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION...18Z KGRI TAF. VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AT KGRI
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SURFACE WINDS WILL VARY FROM THE
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...DECREASING IN
INTENSITY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS NEAR 18000FT AGL WILL
LIKELY PERSIST AT THE TERMINAL...WITH CEILINGS LOWERING TO NEAR
9000FT AGL 00Z-09Z. VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT KGRI
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CST SUN NOV 13 2011/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS
CROSSING THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS. THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WAS PRETTY MUCH THROUGH OUR CWA AS OF 09Z. THREE HOUR
PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT AVERAGED 1-3MB...AND SOME
IMPRESSIVE WIND GUSTS OVER 50MPH WERE OBSERVED IN PORTIONS OF
WESTERN NEBRASKA EARLIER...WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH STILL OCCURRING
ATTM. THE SURFACE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT THROUGH ABOUT MID
MORNING...RESULTING IN GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS...BEFORE
RELAXING DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER TODAY
FOLLOWING FROPA WITH TEMPS MAINLY RETURNING TO THE 50S TO AROUND
60F. MUCH DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING...AND
WILL RESULT IN LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES. CURRENT FORECAST LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST IN THE LOW/MID 20S AND AS
WINDS DECREASE WITH TIME TODAY...MEETING FIRE WEATHER WARNING CRITERIA
TODAY LOOKS TO BE BORDERLINE.
HEADING INTO THE EVENING...A 150KT JET STREAK NOSES ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS AND A SUBTLE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSES THE
CENTRAL PLAINS REGION. OVERALL FEELING IS THAT WE WILL MAINLY SEE
JUST AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER VS PCPN WITH FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND CROSS SECTIONS INDICATING RATHER DRY LOW LEVELS.
HOWEVER WITH SPRINKLE WORDING ALREADY IN THERE...AND GFS/ECMWF
SHOWING SOME LIGHT QPF...WILL LEAVE AS IS BUT LIMIT TIME FRAME TO
BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z MONDAY...WITH LIFT DIMINISHING AND CLOUDS
DECREASING AFTER 06Z.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND IN THE LLVLS WILL KEEP TEMPS ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS FOR HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. MONDAY
NIGHT...A TROUGH CROSSES THE NORTHERN PLAINS REGION...SENDING A COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY TUESDAY
MORNING. THE GFS IS DEEPER WITH TROUGH/COLD AIR ADVECTION ON
TUESDAY COMPARED TO OTHER MODELS...WITH THE ECMWF THE MILDEST AND
THE NAM IN BETWEEN THE TWO. WILL COMPROMISE FOR NOW AMONG MODELS
WITH TEMPS CLOSER TO THE NAM SOLUTION. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND TEMPS LOOK TO DROP INTO THE 20S FOR LOWS
IN THE COOLER/DRY AIRMASS.
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE GFS SWINGS THE TROUGH
THROUGH THE PLAINS QUICKER THAN ECMWF WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER EITHER WAY
STILL A COOLER DAY WITH H85 TEMPS NEAR -5C AND TEMPS ONLY
AVERAGING IN THE 40S FOR HIGHS. HEIGHTS RISE BEHIND THE DEPARTING
TROUGH THRU THE WORKWEEK...WITH FLOW TRANSITIONING SOUTHWESTERLY
BY SATURDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH REACHES THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. MODELS ARE
INDICATING SOME PCPN IN THE VCNTY OF OUR CWA SATURDAY IN THE WAA
PATTERN BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON LOCATION OF THIS JUST YET
AND WILL MAINTAIN DRY FCST FOR NOW.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE/AVIATION...BRYANT