========================================================================== HRRR-TLE: account: rtrr xml: /misc/whome/rtrr/HRRR_TLE/xml bin: /misc/whome/rtrr/HRRR_TLE/bin MODEL: HRRR-X crontab used in the cycles: * * * * * /misc/whome/rtrr/HRRR_TLE/xml/run_hrrrtle.ksh run_hrrrtle.ksh #!/bin/ksh --login module load intel module load rocoto /apps/rocoto/default/bin/rocotorun -w /home/rtrr/HRRR_TLE/xml/hrrrtle.xml -d /home/rtrr/HRRR_TLE/xml/hrrrtle.db exit 0 ========================================================================== 2017-03-02: Trevor Alcott (18 UTC) Added significant severe products - wind > 65 kt - hail > 2 in Modified severe weather forecast algorithms - Increased severe spatial filter to better match SPC products (120 -> 150 km) - Changed hail algorithm to use 2-5km max UH instead of VIG (SPC research) - Changed tornado minimum 0-1km shear from 10 to 6 m/s (Sobash/SPC work) - Increased tornado UH criterion from 100 to 150 m2/s2 Added new fire weather products - Critical fire wx conditions - 80-m wind > 20 kt - 2-m RH < 15% - soil moisture availaibility < 25% - Extreme fire wx conditions - 80-m wind > 30 kt - 2-m RH < 10% - soil moisture availaibility < 15% - Significant wind shift - wind dir change >= 60 deg in last hour - 80-m wind speed >= 20 kt at end time Removed 3-h storm surface runoff product - to be replaced by another runoff-related product, details TBD ========================================================================== 2017-02-14: Trevor Alcott (22 UTC) Added blizzard conditions product Criteria: - snowfall >= 1 in/h - visibility <= 0.25 mi - 80-m wind >= 35 mph ========================================================================== 2017-02-13: Trevor Alcott (18 UTC) Added 12-h snowfall probabilities ========================================================================== 2016-06-02: Trevor Alcott (19 UTC) Extended forecast length to 24 hours - uses longer HRRRx forecasts (3x36h) beyond hour 12 - reaches back up to 6h to find HRRRx up to hour 12 - reaches back up to 24h to find HRRRx beyond hour 12 Adjusted spatial filters based on Isidora's verification - applied to all precip-related fields (PQPF/runoff/ARI/snow) - 100 km for 6-h, 3-h accumulations - 60 km for 1-h accumulations ========================================================================== 2016-05-10: Trevor Alcott Adjusted severe algorithms based on performance at SPC HWT TSTM: increased spatial filter to 90 km Severe wind: decreased 1-h max 10-m wind speed threshold to 20 m/s All severe: increased spatial filters to 120 km ========================================================================== 2016-05-05: Trevor Alcott (via Ben Blake - NCEP) Switched to fftconvolve (SciPy signal toolkit instead of image toolkit) for all spatial and maximum filters. Factor 8-10x faster processing of all HRRR-TLE fields. Latency should be reduced to order 10 min ========================================================================== 2016-05-03: Trevor Alcott Added aviation probability fields Visibility < 5, 3, 1 mi Ceiling < 3000, 1000, 500 ft Echo Tops > 30, 40, 50 kft Probability of IFR (vis<3mi, ceiling<1000ft) Lightning flash density > 0.02 flashes/km2/5min No neighborhood calculation. 80-km spatial filter applied to Gaussian-smoothed fields (sigma = 40 km) ========================================================================== 2016-04-26: Trevor Alcott (17 UTC) Changed severe hail criteria to VIG > 35 kg m^2 ========================================================================== 2016-04-25: Trevor Alcott (17 UTC) Corrected probabilistic runoff to use SSRUN field instead of APCP 3-h runoff is sum of three 1-h buckets Changed severe wx graphics to SPC color scheme ========================================================================== 2016-04-15: Trevor Alcott Added 3-h probabilistic runoff (GRIB: SSRUN) 3-h runoff > 1.0, 2.0, 3.0 in 80-km spatial filter NOT using the 3-h QPF calibration Forcing with QPF until runoff field is available from HRRRx Updated TSTM algorithm. Conditions 1-3 must be met: (1) Max updraft last hour > 1 m/s (2) Gaussian smoothed (80 km) Best LI < 0 (3) Precip last hour > 0.01" ========================================================================== 2016-04-14: Trevor Alcott Adjusted severe wx algorithms: Wind: Max 10-m wind speed > 50 kt Hail: Max vertically integrated graupel > 25 mm Tornado: UH > 100 m2s2 Gaussian smoothed (80 km) LCL < 1500 m Gaussian smoothed (80 km) 0-1-km shear > 10 m/s Gaussian smoothed (80 km) SBCAPE/MUCAPE > 0.75 80-km spatial filter, 40-km neighborhood exceedance ========================================================================== 2016-04-07: Trevor Alcott Added 6-h probability of precip exceeding 100-year Atlas-14 return interval. Coded as grib field "FFLDRO" (flash-flood runoff) Confirmed all fields being ingested at WPC via ftp ========================================================================== 2016-04-04: Trevor Alcott Added quantile-mapping bias correction for 1-h and 3-h PQPF Multiple 1-h or 3-h forecasts are combined and matched to 6-h Stage-IV Streamlined the calibration process and built a complete local archive of HRRR-QPF from 3/1/2015 to present ========================================================================== 2016-04-01: Trevor Alcott HRRR-TLE grids and graphics now archived on HPSS: /BMC/wrfruc/5year/hrrr_tle /BMC/wrfruc/5year/hrrr_tle_graphics ========================================================================== 2016-03-17: Trevor Alcott Converted from point-based to neighborhood probabilities based on feedback from WPC Winter Weather Experiment, i.e., low probabilities associated with narrow Lake-Effect snow bands. All probabiities are chance of exceeding threshold within 40 km Added 1,3-h PQPF, uncalibrated All 1-h fields use 50-km spatial filter, all longer intervals use 80 km Converted from instantaneous snowfall rate to 1-h snowfall Uses hour before, hour ending, hour after valid time Weights can be adjusted Added 4-h severe probabilities Wind: 10-m wind gust > 50 kt Hail: VIL > 50 m2s2 Tornado: UH > 100 m2s2, LCL < 1000 m, 0-1-km shear > 10 m/s Added TStorm probabilities Max updraft > 0.8 m/s, Best-LI < 0 Increased the number of forecast lead times for 3-h and 6-h fields ========================================================================== 2015-12-15: Trevor Alcott Initial set of HRRR-TLE products for WPC Winter Wx Experiment All point-based probabilities 6-h PQPF > 0.1,0.25,0.5,1,2 in : 6,12-h forecasts Quantile-mapping bias correction, linear fit, 50 forecasts 80-km spatial filter 6-h Snowfall > 1,3,6 in : 6,12-h forecasts 80-km spatial filter 1-h Snowfall Rate > 0.5,1,2 in/hr : 0-12-h fcsts in steps of 1h instantaneous rate based on 1-h snowfall before and after valid time 40-km spatial filter 2-h latency, so 12 UTC run uses the 8,9,10 UTC HRRR-X ==========================================================================